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James A. Baker III Files
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Originally Processed With FOIA(s):
FOIA Number:
2000-0715-F
2000-0715-F
FOIA
MARKER
This is not a textual record. This is used as an
administrative marker by the George Bush Presidential
Library Staff.
Record Group/Collection:
George H.W. Bush Presidential Records
Collection/Office of Origin: Chief of Staff, White House Office of
Series:
Baker, James A., III, Files
Subseries:
Public Correspondence Files
OA/ID Number:
93005
Folder ID Number:
93005-003
Folder Title:
[Public Correspondence] [8]
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o
0
0
0
SEP-18-'92 FRI 16:45 ID:FDACS CAPITOL
TEL NO:204 488-7585
#960 P02
9/21: Probbie kilberg à, Josh
THE
STATE
Bolton will meet
SEAL
50
with group per RBZY
GREAT
FLORIDA
Florida Department of Agriculture & Consumer Services
BOB CRAWFORD, Commissioner
NRN of FILE,
W GOD WE TRUST
The Capitol Tallahassee, FL 32399-0800
Bmontagne
September 18, 1992
Honorable Jim Baker
The White House
Washington, DC
Dear Mr. Baker:
The potential impact of the North American Free Trade
Agreement has been of great concern to Florida agriculture for many
months. Our positions and concerns have been expressed repeatedly
to the International Trade Commission, various Committees of
Congress, and our U. S. Trade Representative's office.
Regrettably, concerns. the final NAFTA agreement does not address these
My letter to you is to request a few brief moments in which I
and major Florida agricultural leaders of citrus, fruits,
vegetables and sugar may express to you our concerns and our strong
Agreement. request for modification to the North American Free Trade
We will be in Washington on Tuesday, September 22, and
Wednesday, September 23, to offer our comments and suggestions to
various Congressional Committees. A brief audience to express the
views appreciated. of our $6 billion agriculture industry would be greatly
Thank you for your consideration of Florida agriculture's
request.
Bob BOB Sincerely, CRAWFORD Crangbrd
COMMISSIONER OF AGRICULTURE
BC/rh
SEP-18-'92 FRI 16:44 ID:FDACS CAPITOL
TEL NO:204 488-7585
#960 P01
FRESH FAX
FROM: THE FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF
AGRICULTURE AND CONSUMER SERVICES
BOB CRAWFORD
COMMISSIONER OF AGRICULTURE
THE CAPITOL, PL 10
TALLAHASSEE, FLORIDA 32399-0810
Fresh
FAX # (904) 488-7585
PHONE # (904) 488-3022
Loom
Florida
TO:
Bridget montaigne (white House)
FROM:
DATE:
Bob 9/18/92 Crawford
NO. OF PAGES (INCLUDING COVER)
2
HERE'S THE FRESHEST
JAB-04
is
call
9122 called,thomid
Commerce Bank
NRN
said he
of St. Louis
might
want to
8000 Forsyth Boulevard
St. Louis, Missouri 63105-1797
PETER F. MACKIE
requesta
(314) 746-3657
Executive Vice President
cy of
September 3, 1992
PONS
agenda a
James A. Baker, III
Chief of Staff
The White House
Washington, D. C. 20500
Dear Mr. Baker:,
Like many other fellow Hill School graduates, I have been
following your career with great interest. Congratulations on
your many accomplishments.
Part of the problem in the country today is that people do not
understand why the economy is in its weak condition. To help
address this problem and to help shape our own investment
outlook last year we worked with a number of senior Wall
Street consultants and developed the enclosed piece which deals
with what we call "the long term outlook".
Tax policy drives most long term investment decisions (whether
it be here in the United States or in Japan). The tax policy
addressed
favoring debt creation over savings has led to the excess that
in dgenda
has to be reversed.
I hope you will be favoring policies that support the incentive
to save.
Best of luck in your new responsibilities.
Pame
Sincerely,
Investment Management Group
Commerce Bank
INVESTMENTS -
THE LONG TERM
OUTLOOK
Developed by Commerce Bank's
InvestmentManagementGroup
AssetAllocation Committee
An address to the Missouri Association of Public Employee Retirement Systems Annual Conference
on October 17, 1991 in St. Louis, Missouri by Peter F. Mackie, Executive Vice President.
O
ur job today in the brief time allotted is to look at the economic and financial environment of
the 1990's and assess the investment climate and its implication for asset allocation. We are
pleased to have such an assignment because those of us responsible for investing funds such
as retirement accounts, both plan fiduciaries and investment managers, are often accused of being
too short term oriented. We at Commerce believe this long term approach is a critical aspect of our
work and endeavor to do this analysis on an ongoing basis.
Before looking into the 1990's, it is necessary to quickly review historic investment returns in order to
provide some perspective on the question of future returns. Additionally, we want to look closely at
the economic environment of the 1970's and 1980's and the returns of various asset classes. It was
during that time period that several major trends of the post-WWII period reached their peaks and
have subsequently reversed. We believe those trends help explain to a significant degree the behavior
of the various markets during these years. More importantly, we also see in the reversal of these
trends implications for the economy and the prospective returns of the financial markets.
" long term
Now, in order to provide us with a common frame of reference, let's look at that historical record.
approach is a
critical aspect of
our work "
Long Term Investment Returns
(1927-1990)
37683
Stocks
24523
15992
Bonds
10429
Bills
6801
Inflation
4435
2893
1886
1230
802
523
341
223
145
95
62
40
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
Ibbotson Associates
You have probably seen this information before. The main point is that over time stocks, or equities,
have provided the highest returns, significantly greater than the next best asset class - long term bonds.
Therefore, any account with a long term horizon must seriously consider maintaining a relatively high
stock weighting in the normal allocation. As we all know, this greater return does not come without a
price, which is greater volatility. During any particular short term period, the variation around this
trend can be quite dramatic.
For our particular purpose today, let's look at two of those periods, the 1970's and 1980's. Although
the use of decades is arbitrary, it does illustrate the differences rather clearly.
1
1970s
A Decade For Tangible Assets
Percent
25
20
15
Housing
Old Masters
Diamonds
Farm Land
Silver
Oil
Coins
Gold
Ceramics
10
Bonds
CPI
Forex
Bills
"The most
Stocks
significant force
5
extraordinary
0
acceleration in the
Salomon Brothers
rate of inflation in
the 1970's and,
the gradual
unwinding of
Y
ou will note on the left of the chart (above) that in the 1970's the total return of
stocks, or equities, was well below the long term average of approximately 10%.
inflation in the
You also should note that the fixed income total returns were positive only
because of ever rising coupons during the period. The return on a price basis was
1980's."
negative. After adjusting for inflation, ..returns for both stocks and bonds were negative for
the decade. Note, finally, the returns of both stocks and bonds relative to gold, real estate,
and other "hard" assets.
Now look at the 1980's (below). The returns of financial assets, on the right of the chart, were not only
significantly better both on a nominal and "real" basis (that is, after inflation), they were well above
their historical averages. Also, compare these returns to those of "hard" assets - gold, real estate, etc.
What depressed financial asset returns relative to "hard" assets in the 1970's and then caused that
relationship to reverse in the 1980's? Let's quickly analyze what we believe were the major forces at
work in the past twenty years, and then we should be better able to understand the dynamics most
likely to shape the course of the 1990's and future investment results.
1980s
A Decade For Financial Assets
Percent
25
20
Stocks
15
Housing
Diamonds
Ceramics
Old Masters
Bonds
Coins
Bills
10
CPI
5
Silver
Farm Land
Forex
Oil
Gold
0
-5
Salomon Brothers
2
T
he most significant force affecting investment returns during these years was the
extraordinary acceleration in the rate of inflation in the 1970's and, subsequently,
the breaking of that spiral and the gradual unwinding of inflation in the 1980's. Ás
you can see from the accompanying chart, the rate of inflation, as measured by the
Consumer Price Index, climbed in several steps, culminating with a peak rate in 1980 of
14% before beginning a decline carrying through today.
Consumer Price Index
" the
12 Month Inflation Rate
acceleration of
inflation was
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
driven by the long
14
term post-WWII
13
credit cycle, both
12
11
public and
10
9
private."
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Ned Davis Research, Inc.
We know that throughout history rising inflation generally has been negative for financial
assets and, conversely, positive for "hard" assets. The reverse is also true. Therefore, as the
chart on the returns of the various asset classes in the 1970's and 1980's indicated, that
relationship held true to form during these periods.
What factors have driven this inflationary roller coaster, and what are the implications?
Fundamentally, the acceleration of inflation was driven by the long term post-WWII credit
cycle, both public and private. This was aided, in part, by a tax code which encouraged
borrowing over saving. In the 1970's this process was further distorted by an expansive
monetary policy, newer and easier sources of credit, interest rate deregulation, and a dollar
which, free to float after 1972, floated mainly downward. Finally, the "baby boom"
generation came of age during these years and entered the peak borrowing period of their
lives.
It was during this same period, and partly in response to it, that OPEC delivered two
major shocks to the world in the form of significant oil price increases. This added a supply
induced inflationary bias to the system and helped solidify an inflationary psychology in
the minds of most Americans.
3
A
S a result, debt growth exploded inthe 1980's as Americans sought to take advantage
of an expected persistence of high inflation and to maintain an increasingly costly
lifestyle.
Total Debt As % Of GNP
as debt
accelerated in the
1980's, nominal
economic growth
actually slowed."
1950
1955
1965
1975
1980
1985
Ned Davis Research, Inc.
Interestingly, although there is normally a close, positive relationship between credit growth and
economic growth, as debt accelerated in the 1980's, nominal economic growth actually slowed. This
implies that much of the debt which was taken on during this time was utilized for non-productive
purposes - that is, consumption, housing, excess office buildings, and, as the total burden increased, to
service existing debt. This whole process was fueled by even looser and more creative credit policies
such as the "fifteen minute mortgage," asset backed lending, extended auto loans, and junk bonds.
This, in turn, helped create the problems of the Saving and Loan industry, but that is a whole different
story.
Ironically, most Americans in the 1980's were living and acting on perceptions which had been
shaped by the post war acceptance of debt usage and the experience of the 1970's inflationary
environment but, which were, by the mid 1980's, no longer valid.
A reversal of these inflationary biases was put in motion by the early 1980's through the determination
of the Federal Reserve, led by Paul Volcker, and, in the case of energy, the laws of supply and
demand. Additionally, much of the rationale for debt was starting to unwind as well. The Reagan tax
cuts increased the after tax cost of debt. At the same time, bond investors, battered by their experience
in the 1970's, drove yields on U.S. Treasury Bonds to historically high levels of 15%, thereby raising the
real cost of borrowing and putting downward pressure on many inflated asset values. Finally, the Tax
Reform Act of 1986, enacted during the Reagan administration, eliminated most of the breaks for tax
shelters, real estate being the most significant.
This debt burden is a key factor in our outlook for the 1990's. As the consumer is two-thirds of GNP, how
capable is he of carrying the economy as we move forward? In our view, not very! There are only
three means by which the consumer can generate current consumption: higher incomes, increased
borrowing, or reduced savings. On all three counts, we see a consumer sector that is constrained.
First of all, personal income growth has been slowing for many years and continues to slow, as you
can see from this chart covering the decade of the 1980's. In fact, real income growth is now negative
on a year-over-year basis.
4
Real Personal Income
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
"This debt burden
1
is a key factor in
0
our outlook for the
-1
1990's."
-2
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
Ned Davis Research, Inc.
Personal Savings Rate
1975
1980
1985
1990
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
Ned Davis Research, Inc.
5
S
econdly, during this same period, as illustrated here, the consumer has taken on
significant amounts of debt relative to his income, and increased borrowing from
these levels is most unlikely. In fact, it appears that reducing this current debt
burden may be the new priority.
Consumer Debt
As % Of Personal Income
90
80
" reducing this
current debt
70
burden may be the
60
new priority."
50
40
30
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
ISI Group Inc.
Finally, in trying to maintain his lifestyle, the consumer has been saving at such a low rate that there
is little support for additional consumption from this source. (See chart on previous page.)
Well, if personal consumption seems unlikely to generate much economic growth, can we rely on
traditional fiscal stimulus from the government? Given the current budget realities, and the fact that
we are already adding more debt at a substantial rate as noted here, this would also seem unlikely.
Federal, State And
Municipal Debt Growth
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
ISI Group Inc.
Not only does the federal government seem to be in a poor position to provide any fiscal stimulus,
we have had our taxes raised in November of last year at the federal level and, as you know, many
states have also undertaken significant tax increases to deal with their own financial problems.
6
W
here are these unfolding trends (or secular forces) taking us and what are the
implications for the markets? Is this a typical post-WWII recession cycle with the
usual implications for the markets, or, as they say, are things really different this
time? Our view is that things are different enough that they, when taken in conjunction
with several other factors which I am about to mention, will significantly shape the
economic and market environment over the course of the 1990's. One well known Wall
Street economist, Ed Hyman of ISI Group Inc., has drawn up a list of items which
demonstrates that, indeed, things are different! Listen.
Personal interest income growth lowest on record
Labor force growth- lowest in 30 years
Service sector employment growth lowest on record
Private debt growth- lowest on record
Nominal personal income growth lowest in 30 years
M2 money supply growth- lowest in 30 years
"We believe the
Total debt as a percent of GNP highest since the 1930's
United States has
Business failures as a percent of GNP - highest on record
Bank loan and commercial paper growth- - lowest ever
entered a period of
Effective tax rate 1991: 2nd quarter - highest on record
very modest real
Bank and savings and loan asset growth - lowest on record
Nominal construction spending growth- lowest on record
GNP growth."
We believe the United States has entered a period of very modest real GNP growth. This trend was
already in place prior to the Iraqi war. In point of fact, real GNP has increased at slightly less than a 1%
annual rate over the past three years. While we expect some improvement beginning in 1992, we
envision real GNP growth persisting at below the 3% long term trend for several more years.
With this background and current market valuations, what can we conclude about the investment
outlook? In doing this, we would like to break our outlook into two parts the near term, by which we
mean the next year or two, and the longer term which would take us into the second half of the
decade.
As a result of these economic and valuation considerations, ...we believe that asset allocation should
weight bonds over stocks in the near term.
Bonds
Stocks
Current Recommendation
Corporate profitability will remain under pressure this year but should begin to show positive growth
next year. The rebound in profits, however, will be muted under our economic assumptions of low
demand and weak pricing. Until earnings show signs of sustained improvement, we believe the
outlook for the stock market is lackluster, at best, given its current high valuation.
One way to gain some perspective on the high valuation level of the equity market is to look at the
price/earnings ratio on the S&P 500. The price/earnings ratio exhibits long cycles of rising, stable, or
falling ratios based on trends in the economy and inflation. The decade of the fifties was a period of
disinflation, providing a dramatic rise in price/earnings ratios. The fifties was very similar to the
eighties in respect to rising P/E ratios and high equity returns. The decade of the sixties was a period
of moderate inflation and economic growth, not unlike what we expect for the decade of the 90's. In
the sixties the market traded between 14 and 19 times earnings, as you can see from this chart (next
page).
7
W
hen the market moved above 19 times earnings, corrections followed. With the
market currently trading at 20 times earnings, it looks vulnerable to some form of
correction.
S&P 500 Price/Earnings
Ratio
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
22
21
20
19
" we believe that
18
17
asset allocation
16
15
should weight
14
13
bonds over stocks
12
11
in the near term."
10
9
8
7
Ned Davis Research, Inc.
Corrections of overvaluation can come either through price (market decline) or time (an extended
trading range allowing sufficient time for earnings to catch-up with price). Given the positive
environment for inflation and interest rates, we believe, barring a major shock, we will experience the
latter. This implies a market that continues to move within a trading range for an extended period of
time. We believe that process began well over a year ago when the Dow first touched 3000. The
decline which occurred last fall was the direct result of the Iraqi situation which we interpret as an
anomaly. As an aside, this outlook also implies very careful stock selection for the equity portion of an
account.
On the other hand, the outlook for the fixed income market remains attractive. Although returns will
not approach those seen in the 1980's, potential returns of about 8 percent are still above the long term
average of 4-1/2 percent and compare favorably with equities.
30 Year T-Bond Yields
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
ISI Group Inc.
8
O
ne method to measure the attractiveness of fixed income securities is to review the long term
trend of "real" interest rates which is simply the difference between the yield on triple A long
bonds and the current twelve month rate of inflation. This chart reflects real interest rates
over the past thirty years.
Real Interest Rates
8
6
"
4
the outlook for
2
the fixed income
0
market remains
-2
attractive."
1970
1975
Ned Davis Research, Inc.
With inflation projected to remain below 4% in the coming years, we expect to see "real" interest rates
in the 3% to 4% range, as was the case in the sixties. That implies interest rates can still decline another
1/2% to 1% over the next year.
Supporting this outlook for bonds has been the sharp break in the post war credit cycle to which we
alluded earlier.
Total Debt
Year-To-Year Growth
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
ISI Group Inc.
As seen on this chart starting in 1960, which illustrates the year-to-year change in the growth of debt,
we believe we have witnessed the end of the ever ascending peaks and troughs of debt growth which
have characterized the post WWII period in the U.S. This is confirmed by the break in the post war
bear market in bond prices as shown here. (See chart on next page.)
9
Dow 20 Bond Average
longer [term]
gives broad
trends which make
Ned Davis Research, Inc.
us more optimistic
on the economy
and the equity
market
I
t is our conclusion, that the early part of the 1990's has been, and will continue to be,
dominated by slow economic growth as the credit explosion of the 1980's unwinds.
This, in turn, will support the trend toward lower inflation. Against this background,
we currently see the equity market as fully valued with greater opportunity over the
near term in high quality, fixed income securities.
Now, turning our attention from the near term to the longer time horizon, we believe we have
identified five broad trends which make us more optimistic on the economy and the equity market
as we move toward mid-decade and thereafter. Let's briefly review these.
First, the U.S. will have been through a period in which the process of rebuilding consumer and
corporate balance sheets will have been under way for some time. Personal savings is predicted to
increase as the baby boom generation moves from their primary consumption period into their
higher savings years. At the same time, we would expect to see them become more "mature",
meaning more cautious, consumers. Borrowing should continue to slow, which in conjunction with
various forms of refinancing at lower rates, will allow the consumer greater financial flexibility.
Corporate debt, which also expanded dramatically, will be replaced with equity or lower cost debt,
a process now underway. The financial system will consolidate; balance sheets will improve; and
the system will be in a much stronger lending position. This whole process will put the U.S. on a
much sounder financial footing supporting moderate growth in a low inflation environment.
Second, the drive for greater business productivity will continue and expand. We have already seen
dramatic gains in the U.S. manufacturing sector during the 1980's. This should continue given a
difficult pricing environment and world wide competition. Recently, we have seen the service
sector undergo the restructuring which hit manufacturing in the mid-1980's. This lower cost
structure should allow for increased productivity from this sector which is far and away the largest
in our economy. Within the next few years, the U.S., surprisingly, could be the lowest cost producer
of goods and services among the industrialized countries. This has far-reaching implications for
market share growth as well as profitability.
Third, as another surprise, we expect the real cost of oil to continue to decline with positive
implications for growth and inflation. Several factors are at work here. A continuation of the trend
toward increased efficiency in all energy consuming processes is one. This represents the ongoing
reaction to the OPEC shocks of the 70's. An increase in the supply of oil is another as many countries
around the world move to develop their resources to meet revenue demands. The Soviet Union is
the most obvious example, but this is true even in energy rich countries such as Venezuela which is
looking to increase production 40% by 1995. Also, increased environmental pressures will
encourage greater use of natural gas, of which there is an abundance, thereby adding additional
downward pressure on oil prices.
Fourth, we view the elimination around the world of Marxist disincentives to growth as very
positive for long term, worldwide economic development. This will permit capitalist ideas and
practices to flourish which will expand the opportunity for wealth generation and, subsequently,
10
new markets.
F
ifth, we see the continued integration of regional trading zones which has the effect
of raising economic opportunities as various barriers to growth are reduced. The
integration of Europe scheduled to take effect in 1992 is well underway. The
U.S./Canada free trade agreement is currently being phased in and negotiations are in
progress to include Mexico in an expanded free trade zone. The Asian economies will
continue to integrate as Japan remains the financial center and the developing countries
supply both production and labor resources and expanded markets. This process
represents the next evolutionary step along the road to economic integration. We are
moving from bilateral arrangements, to regional arrangements, and this process will
ultimately lead us to a truly global economy.
In the environment outlined above, we would anticipate a period of relatively stable inflation and
interest rates at levels somewhat below those which exist today. As these trends unfold, we would
expect to overweight equities and underweight bonds as we move toward mid-decade, although the
timing will depend on many factors.
Our longer term
conclusions:
Corporate
Stocks
Earnings
Re-Accelerate
Bonds
Financial
Assets
Continue
Attractive
U.S. Markets
Attractive
High Equity
Future Recommendation
Valuation
Our equity recommendation would include both U.S. and foreign securities as several of the trends
noted above will have favorable consequences for the world in general. In the increasingly
competitive business environment, however, stock selection will be the key to superior
performance, not the country. We would favor, however, overweighting the U.S. equity markets as
the trends outlined above are supported by the following additional factors.
First, U.S. corporate earnings will begin to accelerate after several years of stagnation. This will be
the result of the timely convergence of two factors: renewed economic growth at a modest pace
fueled by the consumer and increased worldwide growth, and by greater productivity gained
from a lower cost structure and a mature U.S. labor force.
Second, equities will continue to look more attractive relative to other investment alternatives. In a
low inflationary environment, returns on real assets will continue to be unattractive. This will
remain true in general for both residential and commercial real estate, as well as other "hard" assets.
Following a period of above average performance for bonds in the early 1990's, we expect stocks
and bond returns will move toward their long term averages. This, as we have seen, favors a higher
commitment to stocks.
Returns on cash equivalents will also remain low. Funds currently held in short term instruments
have grown dramatically in the 1980's as the returns have been extremely attractive. In essence, this
is clearly an anomaly to the long term results which has allowed investors to "have their cake and
eat it too." Over the next year or two, expectations that short rates will rise sharply again - a
phenomenon people have been conditioned to expect should finally dissipate, and much of the
money held in short term instruments will migrate first to the fixed income market, which we are
seeing now, and then to the equity market for the higher returns available over time.
As almost a mirror image to this phenomenon, equities remain at an historically low level as a
percent of household financial assets indicating a large source of potential demand.
Third, we expect that despite our current difficulties, the U.S. will prove to be a very attractive place
for foreign investment. It has become clear over the past several years that the economy of the Soviet
Union is in shambles. The failure of the recent coup in Russia clearly demonstrates the bankruptcy
11
of Marxist-Leninist ideology. Against this background, and keeping in mind the success of the
American led effort in the Persian Gulf, the United States has clearly emerged as the world's only
remaining superpower. This, in turn, sets the stage for greater cooperation in matters of collective
security and reduced geopolitical tensions.
We suspect, however, that the transition to a more Democratic political process and market
economy will not be an easy one for the Soviets and the Eastern European countries. Concern over
internal turmoil and the enormous financial strain this transition will put on Germany and the rest
of Europe will likely enhance the attractiveness of the U.S. market. Any significant turmoil will
focus attention on dollar denominated assets. Since foreign holdings of U.S. stocks are now at a very
low level, such uncertainty may yield positive consequences for U.S. equity prices.
Finally, will lower interest rates, lower inflation, and stable economic growth, all within a
framework of reduced military tensions, have an impact on valuation levels? In our view, they will!
We believe such an environment translates into a lower risk free rate of return and a lower risk
"
stock selection
premium, thereby supporting equity prices at the upper end of the valuation range.
will be the key to
So there you have it. Near term we would overweight bonds relative to stocks and would maintain
superior
cash at minimum levels. Should things unfold as we currently project, we would expect to reverse
performance
"
that position at some point between now and mid-decade. Again cash would be held at a minimum
level. Of course, we all know that we live in a rapidly changing world and that unforeseen events
will often force a readjustment in ones thinking. That is why you hire investment managers such as
ourselves to constantly monitor the markets and the events which shape them. We do believe,
however, that the trends which we have identified will clearly influence the investment outlook in
the coming years and must be carefully followed as we move through the decade of the 1990's.
Asset Allocation Committee
Investment Management Group
Commerce Bank
12
RCV BY:Xerox Telecopier 7020 ; 9-15-92 :10:28AM ;
CCITT G3-+
# 1
THE HONORABLE JAMES A. BAKER 3d
CHIEF OF STAFF
RCV BY:Xerox Telecopier 7020 ; 9-15-92 :10:29AM ;
CCITT G3->
:# 2
American
Agenda
NRN
Dear Secretary BaRer,
Sany that 3 couldn't type this
I have tried for there
days to Set Ono the 800
Mo. ber a capy of agenda
for America Sine lusy Obvisionaly
thousands of calls. a lad of
interest by the american people.
Kup trad of number of calls.
make glore bank available. market
the success the name way Peral
did "x thousand calls in fun 24hn'
RCV BY:Xerox Telecopier 7020 ; 9-15-92 :10:29AM ;
CCITT G3->
:# 3
But lic the people fet
thro - and send and the book.
Jall about 'w. this is one
way that you can gather
ideas, enery and momention. a
following of new people.
Sincerely,
173 CAST 9150
K Ardan Sandbed
MM 10128
O: 212 541.8650
RCV BY:Xerox Telecopier 7020 ; 9-16-92 ; 9:14AM ;
CCITT G3->
;# 2
9.16.92
Dear Secritary Baher,
Clinaton answers on Qnafr:
" OBB the top of my head, and
half way an the nun " 98
you're telling the truth, you
dent have to think about what
you are saycing.
Ungency ance anger are
mad two imotions that the
Presidens partrays will an T.U.
Guiet determination as ergency,
and a controlled berm an anger.
RCV BY:Xerox Telecopier 7020 ; 9-16-92 ; 9:14AM ;
CCITT G3-+
:# 3
Sandbady/Baben II
They will come across lutter
this way.
Paint and that Senate regusal
to rebuiled Homstead Base is
sure politics. Shame! To do
this to hund the President, deopide
the coll in human mostry fu
desperately meedy people.
- We are seeing the beginning
of the end of Clinton
- Draw up a profile of all
RCV BY:Xerox Telecopier 7020 ; 9-16-92 ; 9:15AM ;
CCITT G3->
:# 4
Sandbach/ Baker
III
-
the bills thas the Pres. has
submittee to Congress - especially
over last year. It will shaw
his profile of intens and action -
and their extremily megative regainee.
- smand to view economy on sbolue
basion. It io, and that also
provides a content and a hedge,
- Its time to start a public,
material campaign to go after
those 150- 180 reats coming up the fall-
RCV BY:Xerox Telecopier 7020 ; 9-16-92 ; 9:15AM ;
CCITT G3->
# 5
Sandbad/Bahen IV
maybe the it all together
with that Cigerda for america
gouth. Gu love politicium $
subscribe to this path to receives.
more to come
Sencerely yours,
K. Sordan Sandbadr-
173 CAS. 91st
NM. my 10128
0:(212) 541.8650 0:(212) 541-8650
If the President will use. the
J.V. methods other popular
John # enedy, Junny Carter
Presiden Have used (Ronded Ragen
he will be colected. A confident
air will a twinkle in their
eyes - smilingin an out-
going friendly, fin a nice
words with confidence +
guy way, tp bet Positive
Vitality in his expressions
In otherwords sales mandhis
He will be elected 2 less other
Presidents used it No their
advantage, ill Clinton is using
mr. Baker,
Attachedisa copyoja letters
wrote to President B ush 9-11-92
Please send me rechandaritten
note telling me thet you have
and hand signed one sentence
Personally read this letter,
I want Weorge Bush
re. elected.
JAB-07
1 bank you
Carlow. Bates
(over Please,
Important
10+2
9-11-92
NRN
CARL D.BATES
P.O. BOX 95
211 AVE. G
BRAZORIA, TX.
77422
409-798-9560
PRESIDENT BUSH;
CUTTING THE COST OF GOVERNMENT
I WROTE A DRAFT OF A LETTER PERTAINING TO THIS ISSUE ON 9-3-92. YOUR
STATEMENT REGARDING THIS ISSUE ON 9-10-92 HAS CAUSED ME TO REVISE THIS
LETTER. I AGREE WITH CUTTING OPERATING COSTS IN ALL BRANCHE OF
GOVERNMENT, BUT I SUGGET A DIFFERENT APPROACH.
START NOW. MAKE THE CUT IN THE YOUR BRANCH OF GOVERNMENT TO SHOW
THE CITIZENS JUST HOW SERIOUS YOU ARE. THEN CHALLENGE CONGRESS TO MAKE
THE SAME CUTSS IN THE AREAS THEY CONTROL. THIS WILL GENERATE THE TRUST
AND RESPECT YOU ARE TRYING TO GET FROM THE AMERICAN PUBLIC. IF CONGRESS
DOE NOT FOLLOW YOUR LEAD, THEN YOU HAVE MORE AMMUNITION TO GET THEM OUT
OF OFFICE. OTHER REPUBLICANS WILL FOLLOW YOUR EXAMPLE, BECAUSE THIS
WILL HELP THEIR CHANCES OF BEING ELECTED.
IT MAY BE POSSIBLE TO SHIFT SOME OF THESE PEOPLE TO H.U.D. AND
OTHER AGENCIES THAT PROBE CONTRACTOR, HOSPITALS, DOCTORS, ETC. FOR
OVERCHARGES, FAULTY MATERIALS AND OTHER THEFTS OF TAXPAYERS MONEY. WHEN
FOUND GUILTY OF THESE OFFENSES THEN THEY SHOULD BE FORCED TO RETURN ALL
MONEY INVOLVED, WE KEEP ANY PARTS OR EQUIPMENT WE WERE OVERCHARGED FOR,
A HEAVY FINE IMPOSED, AND THEY SHOULD BE PROHIBITED FROM ANY GOVERNMENT
CONTRACTS OR PROGRAMS FOR A TERM NOT LESS THAN FIVE YEARS. THESE ABUSES
MUST STOP. DO IT NOW DON'T, PROMISE IT FOR LATER.
I BELIEVE, SOLELY FROM WHAT I HAVE READ FROM THE "EXPERTS" ON THE
SUBJECT, THAT BILLION OF DOLLARS CAN BE RECOUPED BY ELIMINATING THESE
ABUSES. THIS MONEY CAN THEN BE USED TO CREATE JOBS. USE IT DIRECTLY FOR
URBAN RENEWAL, HIGHWAY AND BRIDGES, LOW INCOME HOUSING, IN GENERAL JOBS
FOR THE CITIZENS. SOME OF THE MONEY CAN BE USE AS DIRECT PAYMENT TO THE
DEBT AND REDUCE THE AMOUNT OWED AND INTEREST ACCUMULATED. USE THIS
MONEY FOR NOTHING BUT CREATING JOBS AND REDUCING THE DEFICIT.
THERE ARE NO NEW TAXES HERE. IF CONGRESS DOE NOT AGREE THEN YOU
HAVE MORE AMMUNITION FOR GETTING THEM OUT OF OFFICE.
20F2
9-11-92
LINE ITEM VETO
A LINE ITEM VETO IS AN EXCELLENT IDEA. SINCE CONGRESS, IN ALL
LIKELIHOOD, WILL NEVER AGREE TO GIVE THE PRESIDENT THAT POWER, WHY
NOT ASK CONGRESS TO GIVE THEMSELVES THAT POWER? HOW? ANOTHER
COMMITTEE, BUT A NECESSARY ONE.
THE DEMOCRATS IN THE HOUSE CAN ELECT TWO DEMOCRATS FOR THE COMMITTEE.
THE REPUBLICANS CAN ELECT TWO REPUBLICANS FOR THE COMMITTEE. THE SENATE
CAN ELECT TWO DEMOCRATS AND TWO REPUBLICANS IN THE SAME MANNER. THEN A
CHAIRMAN CAN BE ELECTED IN THE FOLLOWING MANNER; BY A MAJORITY OF THE
MEMERSHIP OF THE HOUSE DEMOCRATS, A MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERSHIP OF THE
HOUSE REPUBLICANS, A MAJORITY OF THE MEMERSHIP OF THE SENATE DEMOCRATS,
AND A MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERSHIP OF THE SENATE REPUBLICANS.
THE FINAL BILL CAN THEN BE SENT TO YOUR DESK FOR YOUR SIGNATURE OR
YOUR VETO, AS YOU SEE FIT. THIS, I BELIEVE, IS THE CLOSEST TO A LINE
ITEM VETO THAT CONGRESS WIILL EVER GET. THIS IS BI-PARTISAN
COOPERATION. I BELIEVE THE AMERICAN PEOPLE WILL SEE THAT YOU ARE TRULY
WORKING FOR US AND WILL THROW THEIR SUPPORT BEHIND YOU.
GET THIS STARTED NOW. DON'T PROMISE ANYTHING, "JUST DO IT".
IF CONGRESS DOESN'T COOPERATE, THEN YOU HAVE MORE AMMUNITION TO GET
THEM OUT OF OFFICE.
PLEASE SEND ME A ONE LINE HAND WRITTEN AND HAND SIGNED NOTE TELLING
ME THAT YOU HAVE PERSONALLY READ THIS LETTER.
THANK YOU
Carlw.Bate
CARL D. BATES
Copies Rent to:
Representative form Delay
Denator Phil Dramm
Carl D. Bates
The White Hease
1792
1992
P.O. Box95
FM
NORTH
Brazorioidx 77422
821
HOUST
12 SEP
MAIL PRO 29 USA
E
1992
James Baker
The white House
Washington, W.C.20500
mr. Baker; FOREIGN AID/
A ttached is a Cop y of a letter
I sent to posident B ash. Except
theyare the some. Please
for the note I land wrote to your
sendmea one sentence
note hand written andsigned,
telling me that you have
read the letter.
Phone# 409-798-9560
Dee note on
J hank you
last Page,
Calw. Bates
CARL D. BATES
P.O.BOX 95
211 AVE. G
BRAZORIA, TX.
77422
PRESIDENT BUSH;
I HAD A HEART TRANSPLANT AUG. 6, 1992. THIS IS THE FIRST
TIME I HAVE HAD TO SEND THIS LETTER. I WOULD LIKE TO SEE YOU
AS PRESIDENT AGAIN. I HAVE HEARD ENOUGH PEOPLE THE LAST MANY
YEARS TO GIVE YOU AN ACCURATE ASSESSMENT OF WHAT THE
OVERWHELMING MAJORITY REALLY WANT. I WOULD APPRECIATE A HAND
WRITTEN SENTENCE SIGNED BY YOU CONFIRMING THE FACT THAT YOU
HAVE READ THIS LETTER. IF I DON'T RECEIVE THE LETTER THEN I
WILL CONCLUDE THAT YOU DID NOT READ THE LETTER. I WILL THEN
SEND A COPY TO BILL CLINTON. I DO NOT TRUST BILL CLINTON AS
MOST PEOPLE I TALK TO DO NOT. THESE PEOPLE LOOK TO HIM ONLY
AS A LAST RESORT. IF YOU ACT NOW AND DO NOT JUST SAY YOU WILL
DO THIS OR THAT LATER, THEN YOU WILL WIN RE-ELECTION BY A
MARGIN YOU CAN NOT NOW IMAGINE.
JOBS AND A "LIVABLE INCOME".
WHAT CAN BE DONE TO HELP WITHOUT NEW TAXES OR SPENDING
BILLS? TECHNICAL TRAINING TO SEEK A HIGHER PAYING JOB. HOW?
A FEDERAL GUARANTEED STUDENT LOAN PROGRAM WITH LOW INTEREST
PAYMENTS PATTERNED AFTER THE ONE OFFERED IN TEXAS. THE BANKS
LOAN THE MONEY AND THE GOVERNMENT GUARANTIES REPAYMENT. FREE
GRANTS ARE ALSO GIVEN. NO NEW TAXES OR SPENDING HERE. OFFER
THEM TO PEOPLE MAKING $30,000 DOLLARS OR LESS PER YEAR.
MORE IDEAS; INSTEAD OF SELLING GOVERNMENT SURPLUS ITEMS AT
GIVE AWAY PRICES, WHY NOT DONATE THEM. DONATE THE USE OF
UNUSED GOVERNMENT AND OR MILITARY FACILITIES TO BUSINESS TO
BE USED EXCLUSIVELY AS TECHNICAL TRAINING FACILITIES. WHAT IS
IN IT FOR BUSINESSES? IF THEY DONATE THE QUALIFIED TEACHING
PERSONNEL AND ANY OTHER EQUIPMENT NEEDED FOR THE TECHNICAL
TRAINING THEN THEY WILL HAVE THE EXCLUSIVE RIGHT TO "RECRUIT"
A CERTAIN NUMBER OF PEOPLE IN EACH CLASS THEY SUCCESSFULLY
GRADUTE BEFORE THEY CAN BE APPROACHED BY ANY OTHER COMPANY.
OFFER THIS TRAINING TO MILITARY PEOPLE BEFORE THEY ARE
DISCHARGED SO THEY CAN HAVE A SKILL TO FIT THE JOB MARKET.
OUR MILITARY ALREADY HAS MANY TRAINING CENTERS IN PLACE.
BUSINESSES CAN ALSO PARTICIPATE IN THIS PART OF THE JOBS
PROGRAM BY SUPPLYING THE QUALIFIED TRAINING PERSONNEL WHERE
NEED. OFFER THE SAME INCENTIVES. DON'T LET THEM OUT AND SEE
THEM IN THE UNEMPLOYMENT LINE.
THESE SAME TECHNICAL TRAINING OPPORTUNITIES CAN BE OFFERED
TO WELFARE RECIPIENTS, HIGH SCHOOL STUDENTS IN JUNIOR AND
SENIOR YEAR, AND THE UNEMPLOYED. MAKE IT POSSIBLE FOR THE
UNEMPLOYED TO BECOME ELIGIBLE FOR WELFARE BENEFITS TO HELP
THEM SURVIVE UNTIL THEY COMPLETE THEIR TRAINING AND OBTAIN A
JOB WITH A "LIVABLE INCOME".
YOU CAN'T GET A JOB IF THERE AREN'T ANY OUT THERE.
HOW DO WE CREATE JOBS? TRY THIS. IF U.S. COMPANIES ARE
MANUFACTURING OR ASSEMBLING PRODUCTS IN FOREIGN COUNTRIES,
THEN THEY MUST MEET THE 80% TEST. IF 80% DR MORE WORK IS DONE
HERE IN U.S.A., THEN IT WILL BE CONSIDERED AMERICAN MADE. IF
65
LESS THAN 80% THEN THE PRODUCT IS CONSIDERED FOREIGN MADE AND
MUST SHOW IN WRITING ON THE PRODUCT IN A LOCATION EASILY SEEN
EXACTLY WHAT PERCENTAGE OF THE PRODUCT IS MADE IN U.S.A.
(TRUTH IN ADVERTISING) ALSO THE BUSINESS MUST PAY ALL TAXES
AND OR TARIFFS THAT ARE APPLICABLE TO THE FOREIGN COUNTRY
WHERE THE WORK IS BEING DONE. TAXES AND OR TARIFFS ARE TO BE
APPLIED ON A SLIDING SCALE ACCORDING TO THE PERCENTAGE OF
MANUFACTURING AND OR ASSEMBLING BEING DONE IN THAT COUNTRY. IF
THE BUSINESSES DO NOT WANT TO MOVE THE WORK BACK TO THE
U.S.A. THEN THEY CAN PAY FOR THE PRIVILEGE TO SELL HERE JUST
LIKE ALL OTHER FOREIGN COUNTRIES. USE THESE TAXES AND TARIFFS
COLLECTED IN THIS MANNER EXCLUSIVELY TO CREATE JOBS IN THIS
COUNTRY. REBUILD INNER CITIES, HIGWAYS, LOW INCOME HOUSING,
ETC.
NO NEW TAXES HERE AND NO NEW SPENDING. GOVERNMENT,
BUSINESS AND CITIZENS MUST WORK TOGETHER TO BRING THIS GREAT
COUNTRY BACK TO A POSITION OF PROSPERITY AND OPPORTUNITY THAT
WILL KEEP US AS THE WORLD'S LEADING ECONOMY.
A "LIVABLE INCOME" IS THE KEY TO RESTORING PRIDE IN OUR
CITIZENS SO THEY WILL HAVE TIME TO DEVOTE TO THEIR
"FAMILIES" AND THEIR "VALUES". THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF
OUR CITIZENS WANT TO "PAY THEIR OWN WAY". THEIR PRIDE IS AT
ISSUE. ACT NOW TO GIVE THEM THAT CHANCE, THEN GET THEM ALL IN
THE VOTING GAME. IF YOU ACT NOW THEN I BELIEVE BILL CLINTON
WILL BE WONDERING WHY HE IS 20-30 POINTS BEHIND IN THE POLLS.
SINCERELY,
CARL D. BATES
Mr. Baker,
If anyone objects to the U.D. Government
guaranting bank bans to U.D. Citizens for jobs
training, then ask them how the U.S. Government
can refuse to do so. If we can quarantee bank loans
to severd Joreign countries (Insel, Rassio, Ste.)swhy
can we not guaranter bank loans to our short own
countrymen! f am meking the letters because
I will be mailing views on otherissues.
of Government. These fertain to dyput reduction.
next up, Line Item Veto and latting The Cost
Thank you
Carl Bates
P.O. Box95
29
Wood Duck
MOISTON: PM IX 170
USA
211 Ave: A
09/10/92 WASHINGTON, D.C D 1992 B.SEP 200 #27 11:46
James Baker
J he White House
Washington, D.C.20500
SENT BY:Xerox Telecopier 7020 : 9-21-92 ; 23:19 ;
E O Pi# 1
The White House - fax 202 456 2461
21 Sep/92: Deming Research Group
at University of Hawaii
JAMES BAKER - Personal - Please Transmit
Fax 808 955 3027
URGENT BUSINESS TUESDAY 22nd.
NRN
Jim
Call The Triple Play!
...pursuant our discussions June Reunions:
"Engaged System" For American Recovery.
1. Call The Play: Bush to Stempel to UAN
"STOP THE CM STRIKE - STOP STALLING AMERICAN RECOVERY!
PRESIDENTIAL ORDER ALL PARTIES TO THE WHITE HOUSE
...
For informal jawboning in Rose Garden ...
With GM's 'Coach' Non-Partisan Close Affiliation GM 10 Years with Stempel:
Dr. W. Edwards Deming's Message -
"Optimize The System At GM - For The Country.
"GM Now Readied For American Recovery
"STOP politically inspired influence!"
2. Precedents - Truman, Kennedy "stopped the steel".
Now, "stop the GM steal".
3. Call "The Coach" - Deming 'your neighbor' at 4924 Butterworth Place
as "The Baruch of Presidential, non-partisan Counsel",
Deming - 'The Baruch of Our Century'.
"NEWSMAKERS"
"Omen of New Trust in American Recovery!"
"One-up on Clinton's 'Lansing'."
"The Only Debate Worth Calling:
Optimizing - Engaging The Non-Partisan System
By Business. By Labor. By Governance .... AS ONE!
For American Recovery.. So Goes GM - So Goes The Nation!"
Full
-'
Texts FOR YOUR USE being prepared by DRG.
Will Fax to you soonest.
Aloha! Duh
For Deming Research Group
SENT BY:Xerox Telecopier 7020 ; 9-21-92 ; 23:19 ;
E 0 P:# 2
Bernard Baruch f I : On The Park-Bench
With Presidents
Wilson to FDR to Eisenhower
As vigorous as ever, the "grand old man" of finance
reveals his straight from- the . shoulder opinions
so
DEMING ON THE PARKBENCH WITH BUSH
"The Baruch of The Century
-
...
-
Senior Counsellor - - 92 in '92."
"The Baruch of Economic Productive Growth . . Master Of The American Idea."
...
THE OPTIMISTS' STATEMENT - 'For The World To See' -
"IF System Followed
...
Now For New Jobs Creating Productive Economic Growth
IN TWO YEARS
AND AHEAD!"
THE WARNING TO MANAGEMENTS - Business & Governance -
"The chance of successfully improving our position
in the future under the present system of management
is non-existent ...
We suffer from,
failure to understand
cooperation in a system."
W. EDWARDS DEMING. PH.D.
COUNSELLOR IN ECONOMIC 1 MANAGEMENT TOLICY
WASHINGTON 20018
4934 BUTTERWORTH PLACE
Tel. 202 363 8552. Fax. 363 3501.
Nobel Nomination -
The Deming Nonination Yes the Note: Prace Prise
T. - The Hopwegian Nobel Committee. Dale January 1997
As 1 senior counsellor, teacher. and researcher, Demine ot
" years of age has done more for maintaining proce in the last
21 Sep/92 - DRG Honolulu.
pifky years than any other single person alive today, ...
SENT BY:Xerox Telecopier 7020 ; 9-21-92 ; 23:20
E 0 P # 3
W. Edwards Deming
More than any other one Indi-
vidual, Dr. Deming has given the
west a vision of quality-and be is
providing the tools with which to
achieve it.
Born In 1900, Dr. Doming was aducated
at the University of Wyoming, the Univer-
sity of Colorado, and Yale University, where
he received his doctorate in mathematics and
physics in 1928.
He began work at the Agriculture De-
partment in 1928, and there he first became
interested in matters of quality control, edit-
ing a series of lectures given by his friend
and colleague, Dr. Walter A. Shewhart.
In 1939, he joined the Census Bureau as
head mathematician and statistician. Here he
developed his fundamental concepts of qual-
ity control in both manufacturing and non-
manufacturing environments and began giv-
ing lectures on quality control across the
United States. Unfortunately, Industrialists
did not respond effectively to his efforts at
that time.
W. EDWARDS DEMING
In 1947, Dr. Deming first visited Japan,
and on his many subsequent trips, he taught
to the Japanese managers and engineers the
For the pass four decards. you have been the champion of quality management.
statistical theories and practices necessary to
You have developed # theory of management. based on selentific and natirical principles.
successfully implement quality control. The
Japanese response has become legendary.
in which people remain the least prediciable and the most Important part.
In 1980, Dr. Deming was featured in an
Your scholarly insights and your windom have revolutionized industry.
NBC White Paper, If Japan Can, Why Can't
Yale is proud to confer upon you the degree of
We? That program marked the beginning of
the quality revolution in American industry.
More recently, he has been featured on the
DOCTOR OF LAWS
PBS program. Quality or Else.
Today, Dr. Deming is honoured world-
wide as the "Father of the Third Wave of the
Industrial Revolution." More than 20,000
people hear his message every year, and his
teaching is influencing the world in manu-
facturing, education, service industries, and
government.
The Wind of
W.Edwords
DEMING
Second Ertition
Cecella S Killan
SENT BY:Xerox Telecopier 7020 ; 9-21-92 ; 23:21
;
E 0 P # 4
DRAFT For Professional, Background Use ONLY
NOT FOR RELEASE Or Publication.
ECONOMICS FOR THE TIME:
Economic Development, System Theory & Mindset
For Internal Use Only -
Prepared On The Occasion Of The World Development Congress,
Washington, D.C. 17 - 20 September 1992:
The Hon. Lady Margaret Thatcher, Honorary Chair
Sponsor: CNN - Ted Turner
Oxford, 15 August 1992.
Correspondence may be directed to The Authors,
The Deming Research Group, c/o Professor Richard W., Chadwick - Dept Pol Sci,
Univ. of Hawaii in Honolulu, Hawaii (HI 96822) I Tel. 808 946 0580. Fax 949 0517.
SENT BY:Xerox Telecopier 7020 : 9-21-92 ; 23:21 :
E 0 P:# 5
ECONOMICS FOR THE TIME:
Economic Development, System Theory & Mindset.
Contents.
I.
The Setting of Theory in National & Global Perspective.
1.
II.
Economists This Century.
2
A. Why Belabor Keynes
...
B. The Japanese Model 1950 - 1960.
"Exhibit A".
3
"Kotatsu to Deming in Five Years".
4
C. Arthur Lewis.
III. The Yearning for Theory. .. and the Programs.
5
A. The Programs.
B. Marx-Keynes-Hayek-Lewis.
C. Theory of Components And System:
6
"Causal Mind and Managemeent Thrust"
IV. The First Pre-Requisite
...
"Stable System".
7
V.
A Theory of Evolution
...
or A Theory of Development?
8
A. Tested in Applied Need.
B. Tested In-The-Large.
"Shattered Cultures".
VI. Dynamics ... "Ratings?" "Merit?"
9
VII. Message For Economists.
10
"Looking For The Design: Transcending The Variance."
VIII. The Global Perspective: "The A-B-C's".
11
...
To "D and E"
12
"The Economists' Dream"
IX. Sequence in The Theory-Science of Economics.
13
A. The Eras.
B. The Teaching of It.
C. The Reporting of It.
X.
In Sum
...
Let Us Remind Ourselves.
14
A. The Systems We Do Not Know.
B. The Systems We Share.
15
SENT BY:Xerox Telecopier 7020 : 9-21-92 ; 23:22 :
E 0 P # 6
THE AMERICAN SENIOR ECONOMIC ADVISORY COUNCIL
LETTERHEAD
STATEMENTS TO "THE COMMON AIM"
THE ECONOMIC PACKAGE '92 AND BEYOND
The Deming Research Group - non-pobitical, voluntary - private -
deliberately with no endorsement or approval by Dr. Deming -
- entirely based in Deming Teachings and Research of The Group.
Correspondence may be directed to The Authors,
The Deming Research Group, c/o Professor Richard W., Chadwick - Dept Pol Sci,
Univ. of Hawaii - Honolulu, Hawaii (HI 96822): Tel. 808 946 0580. Fax 949 0517.
SENT BY:Xerox Telecopier 7020 : 9-21-92 ; 23:22 :
E 0 P:# 7
Letterhead Proposed
1992
THE AMERICAN SENIOR ECONOMIC ADVISORY COUNCIL
Executive Committee
Honorary
Chair - Emeritus Chair
Emeritus President Reagan
Ford Motor Co. -
Emeritus Chair J. Peter Grace
Donald Petersen
Ex Officio
Emeritus Governor & CEO
George Romney
Secretary of Commerce Barbara Franklin
Asst. Secretary of Education Diane Ravitch
Emeritus Chair EDS -
Secretary of Housing Jack Kemp
H. Ross Perot
Honorary Members For Service
Emeritus President
New York University -
D.O.D. Air Force Logistics -
Dr. John Brademas
Lt-General MacDonald
Comptroller-General Charles Bowsher
Secretary of Veterans Affairs -
Members-At-Large
Edward Derwinski
Procter & Gamble
Education Manager -
Earl Conway
General Motors Chair -
Dr. Robert Stempel
CNN Founder & Chair -
Ted Turner
U.S. Chamber of Commerce
and CEO - Bird-Johnson -
Charles A. Oren
"Renewing The American Dream"
Serving The Common Aim Leadership Vision - Non-Political - Voluntary
SENT BY:Xerox Telecopier 7020 : 9-21-92 ; 23:22 :
E 0 P:# 8
Letterhead - "Explained" -
1992
THE AMERICAN SENIOR ECONOMIC ADVISORY COUNCIL
Executive Committee
Honorary
Donald Petersen - Chair -
President Reagan - For Leadership Vision
Authentic Top American
and National Medal of Technology -
Management - Deming-Taught
Awarded to Dr. W. Edwards Deming 1987.
For Ford Co. turnaround.
J. Peter Grace - For Voluntary Commission
George Romney -
on Federal Waste Control.
For The 1st Transformation
Ex Officio
for Product-Market Needs
1954 - 1962.
Secretary of Commerce -
Hon. Barbara Franklin
H. Ross Perot -
"Hero" of Business Managements,
As Custodian of Non-Political Encouragement
dared to try GM with Principles
of Excellence - Baldrige Awards,
- Small Business Administration
to save the current collapse.
Funding New Economic Growth.
Dr. John Brademas -
Asst, Secretary of Education -
Emeritus President
Hon. Diane Ravitch - Professor of History
New York University -
and Education - Columbia University
Dr. Deming's 52-year Home-Base.
Teachers College.
Secretary of Housing - Hon. Jack Kemp.
Members
Honorary Members For Service
Earl Conway - P & G Deming-Taught
Dept of Defense - Air Force Logistics
Company-wide - World-wide.
Lt-Gen MacDonald - For "Desert Storm"
Dr. Robert Stempel - GM
Advance Preparation by Deming Methods.
For Courage to "call the game"
Comptroller-General & OMB -
For The New Headstart American
Charles Bowsher - For modest advances.
Economic Rebirth - Deming-Taught.
Secretary of Veterans Affairs -
Ted Turner - CNN
Hon. Edward Derwinski -
For Courage and Experience
For allowing Deming-Taught
In New Enterprise -
Implementation.
"Re-wiring America and World".
Charles A. Orem -
CEO - Bird-Johnson,
U.S. Chamber of Commerce-
Deming-Advocate.
"Renewing The American Dream"
Serving The Common Aim Leadership Vision - Non-Political - Voluntary
SENT BY:Xerox Telecopier 7020 ; 9-21-92 ; 23:23
;
E 0 P;# 9
The Statements To The Common Aim -
1992
The Romney Statement -
No great nation has ever achieved plenty, comfort and leisure,
and remained great.
We confront a fateful global challenge as other nations mount
a competitive might built by emulating the economic miracle we created.
Our deficit-fueled prosperity has weakened discipline and
dangerously increased social instability.
It 1s vital for citizens ... to subordinate their partisan
affiliations and economic interests to their God-given responsibilities
they alone have the right to use under the constitution,
- 1992.
The American Institute of Management Statement -
Meanwhile, we face in the United States, a continuation of
the legislative spendthrift practices.
Our social order is in complete disarray.
The crew runs the ship of state,
Business Leadership is at the mercy of the underdogs, preference
interest groups usurping administrative power by political means.
- Jackson Martindell, Chairman.
- 1974.
The Deming Statement -
It is Management's Responsibility to improve The System.
Our country is in a crisis, an invisible crisis of
No Leadership to The Common Aim by Knowledge of The System -
The Management of each system to Common Aim
In Communities Across The Nation,
By Cooperation Among Components - not by Adverse Competition.
By Local Re-Lease of Energies in Local Task Forces of Leadership
Composed of Business Talent Teamed with Funding Talent,
Implementing New Enterprises in Old Industries and New Risk Ventures.
With National Leadership Vision at The Top -
With Voluntary Senior Guidance to Local Community Task Forces,
New Spirit and New Funding will Create New "Jobs-Jobs-Jobs" Across The Land -
In '92 and Beyond
The Leadership For The Momentum of American Re
For The American Dream Ahead!
- 1992.
SENT BY:Xerox Telecopier 7020 ; 9-21-92 ; 23:23 ;
E 0 P:#10
The Statements To The Common Aim -
1992
The Nobel Nomination of Deming For Peace Prize '92 -
As a senior counsellor, teacher, and researcher,
Deming at 91 years of age has done more for maintaining peace
in the last fifty years than any other single person alive today.
You have conquered, as.1t were, a whole nation
by kindness, love and human sympathy,
...
in the service for the cause of international peace and goodwill.
SENT BY:Xerox Telecopier 7020 ; 9-21-92 ; 23:24 ;
E 0 P:#11
1992
The American Senior Economic Advisory Council
"The Economic Package '92"
The only two Sources of Economic Growth and "Deficit Reduction"
For Assured Tax Revenue are -
1 - Enterprise
20% of Tax Collections
2 - Wages
80% of Tax Collections
For New Tax Revenue, it takes
100% NEW MONEY
That is The Leadership Message - 100% New Money.
That is The Major Issue Not Yet Addressed - Campaign '92,
"Headstart For Rebirth"
A. Money and Talent Teamed
In Local Task Forces of Business Talent with Funding Talent
and Local Senior Advisory Councils
With Incentive to Risk for Common Aim - "Jobs-Jobs-Jobs".
B. Congress Lifting The Overburden on Business
1 - Correcting The Healthcare Coverage, Stabilizing The Costs B4
.obscures The Major Issue - Releasing The Energies
for New Money to Pay The Taxes.
2 - Combining The Issues in One Bill - "Compensation for Compliance"
Allows The Healthcare Correction.
Allows The Enterprise Correction.
3 - Deferred Convertible 5-year Notes -
Incentive for old Money to Venture Risks in Local Teamed Taskforces.
Tax and Interest from 5-year Returns - No penalty going in.
Incentive for Business Talent and New Jobs
Generating 5 years of Taxes from New Wages Earned.
SENT BY:Xerox Telecopier 7020 9-21-92 23:24
E 0 P:#12
CONCERNS OF A CITIZEN.
NYT 27 Fet 1992
An American For America.
Shortly before he died, Edsel Ford
miracle we created, and then im-
social problems.
voiced views about his company
proving on it.
that were contrary to those of his
3. Too many of our children are not
father. A reporter asked, "Why
This is occurring at a time when
being educated and trained for
haven't you said this before?" Edsel
our competitiveness has been seri-
the future.
ously weakened. It has been weak-
replied. "Because 1 was never
asked."
ened by excessive power of corpo-
4. To remain great we must again
emphasize politically, economi-
rate management focused on short-
Years ago I told the country,
term benefits, promoting monopoly,
cally and socially thosebasic meth-
"We've been brainwashed," refer-
diverting money for job crea into
ods that made us great in the first
ring to our tragic Involvement in
government expenditures. Thisdeft-
place.
Viet Nam. Since then, I'm no longer
cit-fueled prosperity has weakened
5. It is the individualism that
asked about presidential elections.
discipline and dangerously in-
freedom permits that makes
But I'm a profoundly concerned
creased social instability.
superior American teamwork
citizen and I've paid for this ad to
It is vital for citizens who are con-
possible.
tell why 1 amvoicing my concern at
cerned about the future of America
6. It is free competitive enterprise
this time.
to subordinate their partisan affilia-
that produces the greatest eco-
My experience convinces me that
tions and economic interests to their
nomic progress-not, primarily,
David Halberstam is right in his
God-given responsibilities as citi-
government regulation and
book The Next Century when he
zens-responsibilities and rights
control.
said: "Our political debate does not
they alone have the right to use un-
7. The power of monopolies and
accept the new equation, that the
der the constitution. If only a small
excessive special interests
years of easy affluence are over. It
percentage of "We the People" across
stifle education, economic
turns on the idea that everything is
the nation use their 1992 vote as
growth and social problem
as it used to be.... We have become
Americans for America, It will de-
solving.
a nation divided: Our political sys-
cide the outcome of the presidential
tem is still based philosophically on
election.
B. It is people helping people, not
money, that most effectively
the glory days of hegemony, butour
Patrick Henry said, "I know not
solves social problems.
economic (and social) system is
what course others may take..." But
stumbling clumsily in the early days
I know what I'm going to do. I'm
9. Excessive reliance on govern-
of the new international economy.
going to do everything possible to
ment to solve social problems
The result is a society oddly oblivi-
ensure that the Democral or Repub-
has become counterproductive.
ous of its new realities, a people and
lican or Independent candidate who
10. No family, no enterprise, no
a nation living above their heads,
is elected as president will restore
government can continue to
and politicians who darenot tell the
power to the people and lead them
spend beyond its income, as
bruth to the population."
in doing what's necessary for
we are doing, without becom-
The Buchanan vote in New
America to educate, be competitive,
ing dependent, bankrupt or
Hampshire and the inconclusive
resume economic growth, provide
impoverished.
Democratic result have created a
economic opportunity and enjoy
I've written this to encourage you
volatile political environment that
social stability.
to determine your own voting crite-
opens the door for people power to
America Can't Wait Four More
ria and identify yourself as a 1992
replace money, special interests and
Years To Face Reality! By
American for America. This is not
the media in selecting who will be-
then It could be too late.
an effort to establish an
come president next January.
We need 1992 Ameri-
organization nor to so-
Peopleshould "seize the moment"
cans for America who
because we face an historical chal-
agree on these facts:
lenge never previously surmounted
1. Our principal problems
licit Singham funds
by any great nation.
are within and not with-
George Romney
No great na tion has ever achieved
out
plenty, comfort and leisure, and re-
2. America's unprec-
mained great. We confront a fateful
Lenore Lenore Romney Nommy
edented success has
global economic challenge as other
spawned unprec-
M agree"!
nations mount A competitive might
edented problems: in
(Michigan's 1970 Senatorial
built by emulating the economic
candidate defeated by incumbent
particular, horrendous
Senator Phil Hart)
George Romney Board Member of both the Commission on National Community Service (created by Congress and appointed by the President) and the private
nonpartisan Points of Light Foundation, Cabinet member, 1969 73 Presidential Candidate. 1967 65 Three-term Governor of Michigan, 1963 89 Chairman of
Citizens for Michigan. 1958 80 CEO, American Motors. 1954 42. whose Rambier was the first successful compact car. Managing Director. Automobile
Manufacturers Association and Automative Council for War Production. 1640 . 48. George Homney, 1640 East Valley Rd,, Bioomfield Hills. MI 48303.
IDA
OSCAR WRIGHT
Regional Administrator
W. Walter Liang
Special Assistant
(415) 744-6402
U.S. Small Business Administration
Fax: 744-6671
71 Stevenson Street 20th Floor
San Francisco. CA 94105-2939
U.S. Small Business Administration
SBA
San Francisco Regional Office
71 Stevenson Street, 20th Floor
San Francisco, California 94105-2939
September 21, 1992
NRN
Mr. Ron Kaufman
Special Assistant to the President
White House
Old Executive Bldg., Rm. 130
Washington, D.C. 20500
Dear Ron:
I hope this note finds you and your family well. To say the least, GOP politics in California
is a web of complexity. As you well know the sluggish economy, abortion and the
aerospace decline, compounded by a fractured party to some extent, has left us with a less
than desirable scenario. However, many of us simply will not concede California so easily.
I have worked very hard with the Presidential Task Force and SBA to respond expeditiously
to the May civil disorder. However, we must now move on to more urgent matters
involving the President and the general perception of the California populace. We can't
turn the economy around in seven short weeks, however, the essence of the President's
plan for the next four years, the public's perception of that plan (how its marketed) and
Clinton's character must be brought into focus in California. It's a matter of trust,
character and jobs.
We have tried diligently to crack the negative articles in the Los Angeles Times. Enclosed
is the best yet. However, I intend to move the focus statewide, including Los Angeles,
highlighting onerous government regulations and their negative impact on small firms,
minority and women enterprises and lenders. I have strategically selected fourteen cities
to give speeches, press briefings and editorial opinions. The linkage is the President's
moratorium on regulations and a call to local municipalities to do the same. I intend to
quickly establish the California Small Business Network. Just recently, I addressed the
Merchants and Manufacturer's Association and was received well. Our theme is "Unchain
Small Firms: One Less Regulation, One Hundred More Jobs".
Ron, I sincerely believe we can galvanize a latent constituency in a state that has a
proclivity towards "underdog, grassroots politics".
Your comments!
Opcar Oscar Wright
Regional Administrator
cc:
James Baker, Chief of Staff, White House
SAP-19-1992 16:15 FROM LA TASK FORCE
TO
94157446671
P.02
LOS ANGELES TIMES, September 19, 1992
SECTION B, PAGE 1
page one of two
KEN LUBAS / Los Angeles Times
Oscar Wright, regional director of the Small Business Administration, in front of locked businesses in South Los Angeles.
The Wright Vision
tle artwork of gang members. Across the
the kind of modest entrepreneurship he
Relief: Small Business
street from his old junior high, the
believes is crucial for recovery. The
Administration official comes
burned hulk of a corner mini-mall stands
measures include:
home to South-Central to
as a testament to the frustration and rage
Inauguration in Los Angeles of a
that erupted in three days of civil strife
new Small Business Administration pro-
unveil post-riot package.
last spring.
gram offering prospective small-busi-
But as the San Francisco-based re-
ness owners a revolving line of credit.
Critics say that despite his
gional director of the Small Business
The program also will relax loan re-
enthusiasm and credentials, he
Administration, the brash young boy
quirements, allowing the use of equip-
lacks influence in Washington.
who impressed everyone with his matu-
ment and machinery as collateral, for
rity and vision may now be in a position
example.
to make far-reaching changes in his old
A pilot program establishing busi.
ness information centers in the city's
By CARLA RIVERA
neighborhood.
low-income communities. The centers
TIMES STAFF WRITER
As a boy growing up in Los Angeles 30
"I
lived next door to one of the lead
will be staffed with loan specialists and
singers with the Platters. Miles
will provide access to computerized
years ago, Oscar Wright was deeply
Davis used to live down the street."
electronic bulletin boards offering a
affected by the changing nature of his
Wright said, recalling some of the lumi-
variety of how-to catalogues. industry
South-Central neighborhood.
naries who shared his stomping grounds
trends and complete business plans.
Once a thriving community that sup-
around 58th Street and Vermont Ave.
A 16% increase in the amount of
ported small, family-owned businesses,
nue. "There were a lot of role models
money available for small-business
the area began to decline as poverty,
back then. We only had to take advan-
loans. which will be offered next year in
crime and drugs gained a foothold.
tage of it all."
Los Angeles.
Today. many of the stores that Wright
This week, Wright. 43. was back in
A 200% increase nationwide in fund-
and his family patronized are boarded
Los Angeles, outlining a package of
ing next year for the SBA's micro-loan
up, defaced with graffiti and the unsub-
post-riot measures aimed at stimulating
Please see BUSINESS. B8
SEP-19-1992
16:16
FROM LA TASK FORCE
TO
94157446671
P.03
LOS ANGELES TIMES, September 1992
SECTION B, PAGE 8
page two of two
B8
SATURDAY. SEPTEMBER 19. 1992
METRO NEWS
BUSINESS: Official Details Post-Riot Relief Package
Continued from B1
losses. "We need access to the ones
program. which provides loans of
Profile:
But the run gave Wright the
that already exist and could help
up to $25.000. Los Angeles' share of
exposure he needed to make a rapid
the $45 million pot has not yet been
Oscar Wright
us.
ascent in COP circles.
City officials who have dealt
determined. Wright said.
During the campaign. Wright.
Wright, the regional director
with Wright describe him as well-
In addition, Wright is organizing
who switched parties in the late
of the U.S. Small Business
meaning but question his influence.
an "economic summit" in Los An-
1970s. won political and financial
Administration, is hoping to
"I think he is genuinely con-
backing from some of President
geles next month that he hopes will
use his post to encourage
cerned and interested, but the SBA
bring together federal. state and
Ronald Reagan's top advisers. in
local officials with business leaders
economic renewal in the South
is not an agency that has typically
1983, he was appointed by Gov.
and citizens to discuss long-term
Los Angeles neighborhoods
taken the lead in provoking
George Deukmejian as director of
recovery strategies. Wright sees
where he grew up.
change." said Los Angeles Deputy
the state Office of Small Business
Mayor Linda Criego. "1 think his
and then became California's first
the summit evolving into monthly
Born: Oct. 31, 1948
role is one to take the messages
community forums. sponsored by
small-business advocate. In 1990.
Residence: Sacramento.
back to Washington. And he does a
churches or the local ethnic press.
Bush named him SBA regional
Education: Bachelor's degree in
good job. But I don't think he's
administrator for four Western
at which government agencies will
have a visible role.
political science from Cal State Los
always listened to."
states and Pacific Island territories.
Angeles.
Wright has no patience for such
Although Wright will not say it,
W
right says the "new vision"
criticism, insisting that he and the
Career highlights: In 1983. ap-
he doesn't seem surprised at his
emerging in the wake of the
Bush Administration are on the
pointed by Gov. George Deukmejian
success
riots is one that not only will
as executive director of the state
same wavelength.
Office of Small Business. in 1990.
"I've sat down with the Presi-
like many other African-Amer-
energize the community. but will
demand changes in how govern-
appointed by President Bush as ad.
dent a number of times. and I
licans, Wright's parents migrat-
ment responds. Los Angeles, he
ministrator of Region IX of the Small
believe we share the same philoso-
ed to Southern California from the
believes, can be a testing ground
Business Administration. covering
phy of empowerment and local
South-in their case. Spartariburg.
for all types of economic experi-
California. Arizona. Nevada, Hawaii,
entrepreneurship he said. "I
S.C.-in the late 1950s looking for a
ments.
Guam. American Samoa and the
see the President giving us the
better life. He says he was instilled
"Organizations like the SBA will
Marshall Islands.
resources, but it is people like
with a sense of pride and purpose-
now have to take government to
Interests/Hobbles: Golf. reading.
myself and local citizenry who will
fulness by his father. one of his
the people." he says with charac-
writing.
define how those resources are
heroes.
teristic fervor. "We have to be a
used."
After graduating with good
Family: Married. with three children.
Wright. however. is careful 10
grades from John Muir Junior
government that is more aggres-
Quote: can't wait until after the
sive. more outreach-oriented but
couch his "new vision" philosophy
High. Wright refused to enter
November election because I don't
only in response to the people
in nonpartisan terms. insisting it is
nearby Manual Arts High School.
want politics to be a part of this. /
saying this is what they want."
not a question of Democrats versus
instead tangling with the school
think the next four years promises
While many in Los Angeles
Republicans. He says Democratic
board until he was allowed to
to be an era of resurgence. It's not
applaud Wright's enthusiasm. they
a question of the recovery of Los
presidential nominee Bill Clinton
transfer to Dorsey High. where he
are not SO sure in this political year
Angeles: redefining Los Angeles is
has a few good ideas. but styly
considered the educational oppor-
that he has the ear of an Adminis-
more the issue."
suggests that the Arkansas gover-
tunities to be better.
tration that. its critics believe,
nor would be best positioned to
"From an carly point it's been
would just as soon write off Los
implement them in his home state.
clear there is no ceiling for Oscar
Angeles and its urban needs. Nor
Wright is proposing programs. he
Wright has an unlikely ally in
Wright." said Coles King 111. a local
are they convinced that Wright's
has failed to pursue changes in
state Sen. Diane Watson (D.Los
bail bondsman and another notable
unrelenting focus on small-busi-
existing regulations that would
Angeles). who crushed him when
black Republican. who has helped
ness development is the right ap-
make it casier for riot victims to
he competed for her 28th District
Wright during key points in his
proach.
obtain loans. For example. business
Senate seat in 1982. The two even-
career. "He grew up out here in an
tually became friends.
"It's great they want to relax
owners say that what they need
unprotected world. And because of
criteria and make more loans
most is an increase in the loan limit
"I think what has evolved is a
that has an understanding of the
available. but to believe it's going
from $500,000 to $1 million and a
learning situation and a sharing
realities of being out here."
to contribute 3 huge number of jobs
relaxation of credit qualifications.
situation." said Watson of her rela-
During a recent stroll near his
To these pleas. Wright has an-
tionship with Wright. "We've had
or revitalize the community is
old junior high. Wright said he
swcred that such modifications re-
very little entree into the Republi-
simply flawed." said Mary Ochs, a
wants to change some of those
can Party and Oscar has been one
Los Angeles legal aid attorney who
quire congressional action, saying
realities by reawakening an entre-
to listen."
specializes in economic issues.
victims must take their case to
prencurial spirit in low-income
The conservative Republican's
communities.
"The fact is most small businesses
Washington.
don't succeed.
But he has failed to mollify many
attempted conquest of her heavily
People in the
"How many other young Ameri-
minority district was doomed to
community are saying they need
critics of SBA procedures.
cans are inside this school," he
fail. says Watson. Among other
more funding for community cen-
"We don't need more programs."
asked. "who might one day be
controversial stands, Wright op-
said Joseph Kung, a spokesman for
great business leaders or potential
ters and youth programs and other
posed affirmative action. busing to
kinds of things.
Presidents but who, when they
a group of busi-
achieve school integration and oth.
Others complain that while
walk out. see only urban biight and
ness owners who suffered riot
or social programs.
no hope?"
JAB08
(DEBATES)
9/22 i thanked by phone
(noted that JAB
remembered his nom.)
ROBERT S. REEBIE
60 INVERNESS ROAD
7041295-4646
PINEHURST, NORTH CAROLINA 28374
NRN
Mr. James Baker
September 5, 1992
The White House
1600 Pennsylvania Avenue
Wasgington, D.C. 20500
Dear Mr. Baker:
While we have never met, I was raised to know of your mother
and father as Aunt Bonner and Uncle Jim. You see, I was born in
1921 in Houston as Robert S. Wharton, son of Earl and Kathryn
Wharton. Some years after my father died in 1924, in Chicago my
mother remarried Arthur Reebie who adopted us and my name was
changed. However, Mother's Texas friends and my Uncle Clarence
Wharton had been so wonderful to her that I remember as a young
child return visits with many so called "aunts" and "uncles" among
the Blaffers, Nelms, Cains, etc.
Now I write to suggest an alternative approach to the debates
being proposed between President Bush and Governor Clinton. I
believe it would serve the President much better to conduct his
own TV meetings as a way of regaining the campaign initiative and
a more positive image. Whether called, 2-3 two hour Ben Franklin
style pro-&-con discussions of 2-3 key issues selected by the
President, could provide the following benefits:
O President display a new, constructive approach for the future:
- Raise controversial issues for public analysis and debate;
- Inform participants and public of all pro-&-con arguments;
- Fairly and non-politically evaluate all viewpoints;
- Depolarize previous firmly held and publicized positions;
- Display evaluated arguments in a convincing manner which
fosters consensus among both debaters and viewing public.
O Permits President to be more constructive and effective than
competing in competitive, combative TV debates:
- Appear to seek, with open mind, agreement on needed action
programs blocked by presidential and congressional politics;
health, line veto, authorizations, subsidies, amendment;
- Provide a basis, following each meeting, for publication of
the pro-&-con results of the meeting in the press or flyers.
I offer this suggestion because it has proven effective for me
in bringing the members of a 400 member business organization to
the level of consensus on complex issues necessary to obtain
needed programs from various legislatures and commissions.
The attachments describe such a program and copies of a pro-&-
con analysis on controlling congress expense authorizations and
term limitiations. In addition, please find a draft of a
candidate evaluation suggestion which might yet be reduced and re-
edited in time for this election.
Bob Reebie
Secretary Baker JAB-OTA
9/14/92
MRN
Your efforts are Very evident as the tide
appears to term for President Bush. Here are
several that need attention or emphasis
Sincerely
Tom R. Greenaway
1461 Fulton Street
San Francisco, CA 94117
9/5/92
PROPOSED REPUBLICAN TV DEBATE PROGRAM
To Replace Debates Between Candidates
BACKGROUND
The Ben Franklin Pro-&-Con Concept Has Recently Proven Successful
In Bringing Positive Action On Public Issues
0 By de-polarizing previous firmly held positions
- All viewpoints must be considered
- These viewpoints are evaluated by the advocates themselves
- The evaluated results are displayed in a convincing manner
0 By bringing consensus as needed:
- To seek legislation, regulation in state and federal matters
O By presenting proposals in a convincing manner
- Plus assurance each proposal is truly in the public interest
OBJECTIVES
1. Focus Attention Of Voting Citizens Upon Vital American Issues
Hold meetings where participants discuss selected key issues
- Develop a proposal for beneficial action for review
Seek to educate the voters, not hold a plebiscite
o Enable voters to evaluate candidates
- Evaluate on voter concerns, not candidate offerings
- Focus candidate self interests upon meeting voter positions
2. Inform Voters Of Viewpoints And Relevant Facts On Issues & Proposals
Seek input from interested and informed discussion participants
o Seek facts from reliable sources, and then present them clearly
3. Display And Evaluate Viewpoints In A "Ben Franklin" Pro-&-Con Format
o A pro-&-con format clearly displays the discussion results
- Obtains the benefits of outline and billboard type formats
- What the eye can see clearly helps the mind absorb easily
Only by reviewing all viewpoints will conclusions be widely accepted
Evaluating the importance of viewpoints keeps the analysis in focus
- Value each viewpoint as critical, important or minor
Evaluation by discussion participants themselves
Organized review de-polarizes previous firmly held positions
STATEMENT OF PROPOSED ACTION
PRO POINTS
CON POINTS
Critical points
Critical points
Important points
Important points
Unimportant/Strawman points
Unimportant/Strawman points
4. Obtain Consensus On Key Issues And Proposals
0 A need to limit the number of issues considered each election year
Issues of such size as to be meaningful
Issues with potential for significant improvement
Issues which wherein voter approval appears possible
o The number of issues on which voters could be educated
Develop pro-&-con charts
Gain consensus on a proposition according to tilt of evidence
Show direction of tough choice when consensus is elusive
Reduce the scope of a proposition when the need is found
5. Publish Final Pro-&-Con Charts In Newspapers, Magazines, Mailings, Etc.
o Stimulate more complete voter review than TV permits
6. Develop Scoree Sheets To Evaluate Candidate Positions Vs Voter
Positions On Voter Selected Issues (whether or not such selections and
positions were preceded by Ben Franklin style discussions)
O Brief description of each voter position (5-10 per election)
- Import value points ascribed to each position
o Positions for voters to score each candidate on each issue
- Voter to credit the amount of value points deemed appropriate
7. Encourage Semi-Weekly Surveys Of Voter Scoring Of Candidates
Offer more meaningful polls than current popularity polls
-Relate to issues (like batting/fielding averages to baseball)
Provides media with importatnt, meaningful information
- Involves media in constructive coverage of campaign
Tells candidates how their voters view their positions
-
Forces candidates to discuss voter issues & state their positions
Measures changes in voter views of candidates during campaign
- Voters themselves evaluate candidates, not United We Stand
OPERATING PROCEDURES
1. Inform Voters Of Pertinent Facts and All Viewpoints On Selected Issues
o Seek factual information from available sources
- Academic institutions
- Private "think tank" research organizations
- Governmental agencies
- Legislators and staffs
Develop outlines, tables, charts, etc. to present pertinent
information as clearly as possible (see over)
- Example 1: Effect of taxes and welfare on employment (Fortune
Magazine chart VS. political statements)
- Example 2: Social security benefits verses recipient
contributions (National Taxpayers Union VS. common beliefs)
2. Display and Evaluate Viewpoints In A "Ben Franklin" Pro-&-Con Format
o Seek all viewpoints concerning positive action programs from
informed sources in open meetings or from written submissions
- Citizen voters
- Spokespersons for citizen, business, professional, etc. groups,
- Information sources listed above
3. Inform Voters Of Pertainent Facts and All Viewpoints On Selected Issues
alseogor9 briA squael YOX nO evenueno) nistdO
0 Seek factual information from available sources
Academic institutions in regimen
- Private "think tank research organizations To I
- Governmental agencies ,
- Legislators and staffs lordw
- Owners: Of, America staff\research|
2.31.10
1
Develop outlines, tables, charts, etc. to present pertinent
information clearly as possible
00/10/16
(a)
-6. Example 1: Effect of taxes andowelfare on employment (Fortune
Magazine chart VS. political statements)
agail Example 2: Social: securityMbenefitsnVers@sErecipient7 delldog
contributions (National Taxpayers Union VS. common beliefs)
TodoV eV and
COMING SHORT
410008 091008 golovant .a
ANNUAL
WELFARE
WORKING
50108 TOJOV in moticol
INCOME
MOTHER
MOTHER
Welfare
$5,052
NONE
Food stamps
$2,427
$2,503
10
Earnings
NONE $8;000
Earned income tax credit
NONE: $1,384
GROSS INCOME
$7479 1.887
Work-related expenses
NONE
$1,900
astabibace
Social Security tax
NONE
$612
FORED TABLE
1mn8 . ₹
Paid child care
NONE
$2,700
DISPOSABLE INCOME
87479
I.
26675
POVERT THRESHOLD
FOR FAMILY OF THREE
210857 $10,857
nolocese 10 OPERAVOD ni sibem
Benefit Payback on Tax Contributions CANE
anoidled aleda for average earning couple retiring atrage 65 iniJanuary, 1981,nec 207907
in
20
D
1632 eW betinu Jon asvisement 27930
19 years: wife dies
18
DWITASHO
16
:-
9100198 no
11A bns adonT to 23930V
myoinl .1
14
14 years: husband dies
imprir
Xmith
12
Years After Retirement
11 years, 7 months: all Interest on pretirement federal income tax repaid
10
8
6
6 years, 2 months: value of prefetirement federal Income lax repaid
-
1)
1261
10974
103-3-049
noa" A at adval VP 983 tolgeta
3 years, 6 months: all Interest on OASI contributions repaid
079
2
year, months: $ value of OASO contributions repaid
4 months: all inturest on HI contributions repaid
2 months: $ value of HI contributions repaid
0
3
3. Hold 2-3 TV Meetings, One On Each Priority Issue
o Plan a two hour meeting (even if TV coverage for 1st hour)
- Invite an informed and participating audience
o President Bush
- Open meeting, explain objectives and procedures
- Explain the issue and proposition to be discussed
0 President Bush or moderator
- Request comments, one per participant until all who wish to
comment have had one chance, then allow a round of second points,
etc. until each participant has made all of his/her points
- Moderator must judicially limit discussion of each point until it
has been fairly heard and placed on the pro-&-con chart in one of
three levels (critical, important, minor) or combined with a
previous point. When disagreement arises concerning a point's
appropriate level of importance, it would be decided by a vote of
the participants.
o President Bush
- Assess results of meeting (or possible need for a second session)
Where more review may be needed - on what points
Where the original proposition needs modification
Where the results may need editing for clarification
- Plans for publication of the results
- Announce date and issue of the next Issue Meeting
- Close the meeting
5. Publish Results
o
Draft pro-&-con results in a format to gain attention and clarity
- Billboard style with effective mixture of type fonts, boldness,
spacing, color, etc.
o
Offer to media: newspapers, magazines, plus radio & TV commentators
Print, distribute and mail flyers
o
Purchase advertising space in selected newspapers and magazines
- Effective page sizes, including double-truck opposing pages
3
PROPOSITION: THAT CONGRESS REQUIRE THAT ALL BILLS TO AUTHORIZE EXPENDITURES MUST BE CONSIDERED ALONE OR COMBINED WITH OTHER
AUTHORIZATION BILLS PERTAINING TO THE SAME FUNCTION IN A BIENNIAL BUDGET AND CANNOT BE ATTACHED TO UNRELATED LEGISLATION.
PRO: AFFIRMATIVE
CON: AGAINST
CRITICAL/VITAL
CRITICAL/VITAL
1. Grouping authorization legislation by Budget Function will,
help clarify and set the nation's spending priorities.
2. Attachment of authorization bills of questionable merit to
unrelated legislation avoids adequate public review and has
been a major factor in causing "budget busting" expenditures.
3. The attachment of authorization bills to legislation of high
public value can prevent a Presidential needed to hold the
nation's expenditures within its revenues.
4. Biennial budgeting offers many significant opportunities for
greater efficiency in government operations (e.g military).
IMPORTANT/SIGNIFICANT
IMPORTANT/SIGNIFICANT
1. This legislation will give voters confidence that their money
is being well spent on accepted programs and thus may assist
1. The current 19 Budget Functions need to be increased at some
Congress in raising taxes or reducing unreasonable benefits.
date to 40-50 functions in order to obtain a clearer, more
homogeneous definition of the activities included in an
authorization bill.
2. Requiring that authorization legislation be considered only
under one of. the 19 largely homogeneous Budget Functions,
already vetoable by a President, will obtain much of the good
of the widely desired line item veto without its objections.
3. This legislation would largely regain for the Presidency the
the counterbalancing fiscal veto power vis-a-vis Congress as
originally intended by the Constitution but negated by recent
congressional "christmas tree" attachment of special interest
legislation to general purpose legislation.
4. Adoption of this expense authorization procedure could become
a prelude to a Balanced Budget amendment to the Constitution.
5. This procedure would not prohibit authorization of expenses
for special interests wherein open disclosure and debate
could display their merits in the general public interest.
LOWER IMPORT/SOLVABLE/QUESTIONABLE
LOWER IMPORT/SOLVABLE/QUESTIONABLE
1. The relating of expenditure authorization bills to a single
Budget Funtion will facilitate the congressional task of
1. Because of a reluctance of many Congressmen to enact a
relating both general and specific tax revenues to each
restriction on their spending powers, this legislation may
specific Budget Funtion.
need to await a Constitutional amendment requiring a balanced
budget or limiting the congressional terms of office.
2. This procedure would facilitate the budget process and
explanation to the voting public of the need for, and
validity of tax legislation.
PROPOSITION: THAT NORTH CAROLINA LEGISLATORS OFFER ITS VOTERS IN 1992 A REFERENDUM ON LIMITING THE TERMS OF TTS U.S. SENATORS TO TWO TEMS OF 6 YEARS EACH
AND ON LIMITING THE TERMS OF ITS U.S. REPRESENTATIVES TO TWO TERMS OF 4 YEARS EACH UNTIL SIMILAR CHANGES BE MADE IN THE U.S. CONSTITUTION.
PRO: AFFIRMATIVE
CON: AGAINST
CRITICAL/VITAL
CRITICAL/VITAL
1. The need to foster a "citizen Congress" concerned with the good of the
nation rather than a "career Congress" more concerned with re-election.
2. The failure of Congress to enact budgetary legislation in an election year
to permit re-election only once for both Senators and Representatives.
indicates a need to extend the terms of Representatives to four years and
3. Obtaining a vital Balanced Budget Amendment or a Line Item Veto appears
require prior limits on congressional terms.
IMPORTANT/SIGNIFICANT
IMPORTANT/SIGNIFICANT
1. Experience in industry, government and the Congress shows that two terms
will allow many legislators to become informed and competent enough after
1. Programs which often take more than 8-12 years to come to fruition may not
2-4 years to assume committee leaderships and continue effective programs.
receive the original level of support from later legislators.
2. Long terms permit legislators to become beholden to special interests who
2. The relative-strength of the government bureaucracy vis-a-vis the Congress
help finance re-elections, especially senior committee chairmen.
may be increased because of the probable longer terms of employment.
3.A constant need for re-election encourages wasteful "pork barrel log
3. The power of long term congressmen, under current seniority rules, to
rolling" expenditures to gain the support of other legislators.
party to gain its programs could be diminished.
maintain party discipline would be lost, and thus some of the ability of a
4. thout a re-election focus, the large staffs of legislators could be
reduced and yet be more effectively applied to current issues.
5. Shorter terms will facilitate reorganization of Congress and reductions of
the number of committees and their costly staffs.
6. Reduction or abolishment of PACs, honorariums and franking will not
adequately reduce unequal election powers of incumbent legislators.
7. Continued re-election of incumbent Representatives has frustrated the
intent of the two-year term, namely a constant infusion of new views.
8. The maximum possible election of 1/2 the House and 1/3 the Senate every
two years will keep Congress adequately responsive to the electorate.
9. Constant re-election gives congressmen "seniority" power to be used in a
constituency's special interest, even when against the general interest.
10. Periodic removal of politicians responsible for uneconomic commitments
would facilitate unblased "sunset" reviews.
LOWER IMPORT/SOLVABLE/QUESTIONABLE
LOWER IMPORT/SOLVABLE/QUESTIONABIE
1. Adequate continuity of programs will be assisted by experienced committee
and governmental personnel who will remain.
1. Some highly competent long term legislators will be retired from their
current positions.
2. The nation can easily provide enough service oriented candidates to
of employment value following Congressional service and because many
refill a 535 member Congress every 8-12 years, because of the enhancement
2. Because of a lack of a desire by most congressmen to limit his/her tenure,
a constitutional amendment may well require a state-by-state process.
organizations will grant leaves of absence for legislative service.
3. There is at least an equal chance that newly elected legislators will be
3. Attempts to limit terms of office are really desired by the party out of
power in order to turn out the incumbents of the party in power.
being more familiar with current private sector concerns.
as competent across the board as those whose terms expire, as well as
4. North Carolina may experience a short term loss of the advantageous power
of its "seniority" legislators if they are terminated before other states
4. Those competent legislators displaced by term limits will have highly
enact their own term limits or a constitutional amendment is enacted.
valuable options available in industry or further government service.
9/1/92
1992 ELECTION - CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATES - EVALUATION SCORE SHEET
OBJECTIVE
This Candidate Evaluation Score Sheet is intended to encourage, even
force, candidates for the United States Congress to focus upon a limited number
of timely issues and positions now being raised by constituent voters rather
than upon candidate views of matters which they discuss in order to gain voter
approval. (A similar sheet is available to evaluate three possible
presidential candidates).
The success of this citizen effort to obtain a more effective Congress
will be determined by the extent:
1. That newspaper & TV media recognize that Candidate Evaluation Score Sheets
produce results & data far more informative, interesting and important than
popularity polls because issue Score Sheets relate to politics in the same
realistic way that batting and fielding averages truly relate to baseball.
2. That Representative and Senate candidates come to recognize that their
election success will depend largely upon the positions which they voice
and the commitments they make with regard to the basic issues and positions
used by their constiuent voters to evaluate the candidates.
3. That local press and TV media use issue Score Sheets as the basis for bi-
weekly surveys of voter evaluations. As candidates seek to improve any
unfavorable voter scores of them, by moving toward voter positions, the
voters will have additional chances during a campaign to re-evaluate the
candidate positions and commitments on Issues before the final election.
4. That publication of sample voter evaluation on each Issue serves to inform
the general citizenry of Issues deemed pertinent to the current election.
Publication may also stimulate interest in learning more about these issues
and encourgage more citizens to vote in the election.
NOTES ABOUT ISSUES LISTED ON THE EVALUATION SCORE SHEET:
A. The need for Congress to act next term in two basic areas:
- Adopt concepts needed to gain sound national finance status (items 1-3)
0 Eliminate "pork" expenditures from costly omnibus bills whose other
benefits may merit congressional approval and thus cause many valued
Representatives and Senators to become wasteful "over spenders";
- Adopt concepts vital to congressional effectiveness & trust (Items 4,5).
B. The need to recognize basic economic and political truths.
- Today's unemployment will be difficult to overcome:
0 More than recession, due to technology displacing jobs, foreign
competition, military and business force reductions;
0 Short run, government can offer only compensation and training
Extended compensation should involve work on infrastructure)
o Government focus itself and business on the long range -
President can propose, but only Congress can enact programs;
Encourage private enterprise as best source of new jobs.
- Granting tax benefits to raise private investment in productivity and
job creation, plus funding of any new vital public interest programs,
requires that Congress reduce or eliminate unnecessary, outdated
programs it previously granted to a wide range of special interests - -
before planning to raise taxes, whether to cover expenses, or to reduce
the deficit, the debt, or consumption not in the national interest.
C. The need to reduce or end unneeded and wasteful, old, special interest
programs in order to finance vital new programs (items 6-9,11 and 10,12,13)
- Sunset laws should annually re-examine the need to continue subsidies
- Inform retired citizens that most couples receive Social Security
paybacks equal to return of both their own and their employer's original
contributions, plus interest, within 4 years after age 65 retirement.
Thereafter, benefits, often unneeded, must be paid by the next 1-3
generations with fewer and lewer worker contributors per retiree. -
workers whose family dependent tax deductions remain at 1960-70 levels.
Elders receive 11 times more federal funds than young under 18 years.
SCORING METHOD:
- A weighted value for each issue is listed to the right of it.
- Each voter must determine the percent credit to be given each candidate:
o Zero if a candidate view is unknown or if opposed to the voter position;
o The voter's assessment of percent credit when the candidate equivocates;
o Full 100% credit when candidate commits to act positively next term.
- Enter the score for each candidate opposite each issue position.
- Total the score for each candidate as of the date of the evaluation.
1992 NATIONAL ISSUES PROJECT
CANDIDATE SCORES
SENATE
HOUSE
SCORE SHEET FOR EVALUATION OF CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATES
State
Congr. Distr. No.
Evaluation Date
Scorer
ISSUES SELECTED FOR CONGRESSIONAL ACTION 1992-93
VALUES
2
GOVERNMENT REORGANIZATION - GATEWAY TO EFFECTIVENESS & PUBLIC TRUST
1. Congress enact law authorizing a President to veto single items in a
federal budget or authorization bill, with overide by a 60% House vote.
8
2. Congress act to control spending by requiring all bills authorizing expense
be adopted alone or combined with other expenditure bills pertaining to the
same Budget Function, and not attached to unrelated legislation:
5
o Expand current 19 Budget Expense Functions for clearer definition, then
group them by relationships to aid public understanding & prioritizing;
2
o
Congress act to reorganize Its committees and sub-committees by Budget
Function Groups and specific Budget Functions to aid staff reductions.
2
3. Congress enact law (or seek Constitutional amendment) requiring Its Budgets
be balanced, but permit a deficit only by a 70% vote of both houses and
only with a plan for recovery from the deficit condition within 2-4 years:
5
o Budgets to be calculated without considering reserve funds (e.g. Social
Security, FDIC, etc.):
1
o Budgets to hold expense growth to population growth, plus inflation,
whenever service of the national debt exceeds 5% of the federal budget.
2
4. Congress act to prohibit all special interest PAC contributions and limit
personal campaign gifts at $1000 to a candidate and $5,000 to a party.
8
5. Congress act to terminate its exclusion from general public laws, eliminate
unproductive free perks, and reduce Its expenses and staff 25% by FY 1994.
2
0 Congress act to reduce its retirement benefits and perks to bring them
in line with commercial executives of the same salary and tenure levels
AMERICA'S DEMOCRATIC ECONOMY
6. Congress act in 1993 to authorize President to sell federal assets no
longer needed for pre-WWI defense, agriculture, etc. plus outstanding loans
on the basis that the sale funds be used only to reduce the federal debt.
2
7. Congress act to gradually reduce Defense expenses below #200 billion per
year by FY 1997. Cancel equipment and bases not requested by Pentagon.
5
o Base plans on reducing US personnel stationed in Europe and Asia, plus
Presidential negotiation of greater expenditure sharing by our allies.
2
8. Congress act to reduce total subsidy payments 5% each year until FY 1996.
Focus on special interest programs no longer worthy of public interest
support: agriculture (large farms); water; HUD public housing; ICC; FDIC
(large/multiple deposits); ExImBank; Amtrak; REA; large/2nd mortgages.
8
9. Congress freeze civilian agency overhead budget level for 2 years.
3
10. Congress individually enact investment incentives for production & jobs:
o Reduce to 10% tax on capital value gains of Investments held 5 yrs,
- Index inflation before calculating appreciation gain;
2
o Tax credits for R&D in Industries essential to the nation's technical
progress or industries suffering subsidized foreign competition;
2
0 Allow facilities depreciation to Increase with inflation and re-
establish accelerated depreciation of high-tech equipment;
2
0 Establish, in poor and urban areas, enterprise zones which would be free
of federal taxes for 5 years for each new business;
4
0 Encourage citizens themselves to save for retirement or emergencies with
IRAs paid with after-tax incomes but tax free upon withdrawal.
2
AMERICA'S HUMAN RESOURCES
11. Congress maintain Social Security and Medicare benefits, plus military and,
government pensions, but limit growth to draw closer to original intents:
0 Colas to be suspended for one year and thereafter limited to a consumer
price index appropriate for elder and retired citizens;
3
o Insure no needy retiree be deprived of income, but apply Income tax on
85% of benefits to single Incomes over $30,000 and couples over $40,000;
2
o
Continue Medicare coverages but raise its medical insurance premiums 25%
2
for individuals with incomes over $30,000, and couples over $40,000.
12. Congress apply funds saved from excessive or costly elder programs, plus
other expense savings, to assist the young In becoming healthy, capable,
and productive citizens more able to resist drugs and crime:
o Provide refundable tax credits of #1200 per child 0-6, #800 per child
4
7-18 to return family support to the effective levels of 1960-70;
0
Education in middle & high schools about citizen responsibilities and
about the risks of AIDS, teenage pregnancy and single parenthood;
0
Prenatal care for poor pregnant women, plus encouragement of a 6-12
2
month maternity leave by employers of 50 or more workers;
o
Nutrition, health and day care for all needy children 0-6 years old
through federal vouchers redeemable by approved agencies:
2
o In test areas, provide parents with vouchers to supplement costs in
1-12 schools of their choice, to stimulate educational competition.
13. Congress enact aid to Health Programs which Include 6 basic factors:
o
Acceptance that fairness requires benefitees to pay Income taxes on
employer care, just as independents pay for care out of taxed income;
2
o Recognition that employer health payments (vs benefitee payments) makes
US business uncompetitive with foreign firms which do not pay for care;
2
o
Encouragement of government and large employers to expand their current
programs to evaluate available private care services and to recommend,
to employees & others, those providers which meet basic criteria;
2
o Reduction and control of costs by making the benefitee responsible for
choosing from several benefit-&-cost packages (even if paid by/through
an employer), thus using buyer Interest and competition to make quality
4
care, services widely available and affordable for all but the needy;
o Requirement that all health care providers accept all new applicants,
with US government vouchers for the needy poor and for high cost 111s;
?
o
Federal establishment of appropriate lists of required basic service
packages to which providers could add coverages desired by the market;
2
TOTALS
100
SEP 8
NC
ROBERT S. REEBIE
1992
60 INVERNESS ROAD
28302
PINEHURST, NORTH CAROLINA 28374
USA
09/10/92 WASHINGTON, D .0.200 #C7 12:55
23
Mary Cassatt
Mr. James Baker
Chief of stoff
The White House
1600 Pennaylvania Avenue
Washington DC 20500
MAM
NRN leais affairs
National Association
call on
of Manufacturers
Jerry J. Jasinowski
President
September 15, 1992
The Honorable James A. Baker III
Chief of Staff
The White House
Washington, DC 20500
Dear Jim:
I would like to call to your attention a policy action which could by taken by the
President that would help support U.S. exports. An amendment is being offered to the
Defense authorization bill which would set up a program in the Defense Department to
provide financing for defense exports.
Because Congress may act on this matter at any time this week, I would like to seek
your active support for this amendment and would appreciate an opportunity to discuss it
with you either on the telephone or in person.
The amendment which is being offered by Senators Dodd, Rudman, Pell and Dole
would provide $65 million to support export financing for defense products. This $65
million would be leveraged to support nearly a $1 billion in exports.
It is important to realize this amendment would not only help maintain an adequate
defense manufacturing base but also support nearly 22,000 direct and 17,000 indirect jobs.
It would seem to us that this is the type of policy action which the Administration should be
supporting.
Unfortunately, the signals the business community have received so far from various
White House and departmental officials have been decidedly mixed. I, therefore, would
urge you to clearly announce the Administration's support for this amendment. This should
be the first step taken.
In addition, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has thrown an unnecessary
hurdle in the path of this amendment by arguing that any defense export finance facility
must be scored against the international (function 150) rather than the defense account
(function 050) in the federal budget. This program is to be run out of the Defense
Department using funds appropriated and authorized to the Department. It should be scored
against function 050. If it isn't, it will probably be impossible to secure Congressional
approval.
1331 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, Suite 1500
Washington, DC 20004-1703
(202) 637-3106; Fax: (202) 637-3182
The Honorable James A. Baker III
September 15, 1992
Page Two
If this issue is to move forward, it must be dealt with promptly by the White House.
I would urge you to make sure this happens immediately.
Sincerely,
JanyJ. National Association of Manufacturers
President
cc:
Brent Scowcroft/NSC
Richard Darman/OMB
Dick Cheney/Defense
Barbara Franklin/Commerce
NOTE FOR FILE - 9/22
Secretary Baker approved
Kimmitt's quoting the
circled paragraph in
his speech. Zoellick
concurred, Scowcroft
was given a copy.
Caron Jackson notified
Kimmitt. (Videotape
request was denied.)
B. Thompson
'92 11:19
0000 AMB/X BONN
TEL 49-228-339-2002
P. 3
EMBASSY OF THE
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
BONN
September 10, 1992
THE AMBASSADOR
The Honorable Margaret deB. Tutwiler
Assistant to the President
The White House
Washington, D.C. 20500
Dear Margaret:
I called you earlier this month to make sure that you
received the answer I gave to John Rogers concerning your
personal papers. If any question remains on that subject,
please do not hesitate to contact me.
Bob Zoellick's office has forwarded to you the videotape
request I received from General Motors. General Motors is
looking for a 15-30 second Presidential video that would be
played at the September 23 grand opening of the GM/Opel plant
in Eisenach in the state of Thuringia, which was formerly part
of the GDR. This event is sure to attract major German,
European, and international press coverage. Speakers will
include Chancellor Kohl and GM President and Chief Operating
Officer, John F. Smith.
If the President is doing any non-political tapings, I
think this one should be given a close look. A suggested text
would be as follows:
During the historic years of 1989 and 1990, Americans took
special pride in supporting the process that led to the
rmunification of Germany. That process continues today,
and America wants to continue to do its part. Last year in
Berlin, Jim Baker underscored our commitment by stating:
"I have no doubt that before too long this part of Germany
will be one of the foremost engines in Europe. On that
day, I believe Americans and Germans will be standing on
the shop floor together." Today, that statement is a
reality. It is thus with pride and confidence in our
common future that I send to you today the very best wishes
of the American people on this special occasion.
I would like to let General Motors know soon whether there
is any chance for such a video. The best number to reach me is
011-49-228-3391.
Very best wishes, from both Holly and me.
Sincerely,
Bob
Robert M. Kimmitt
CC: Bob Zoellick
NRN
offer
Carl E. Anderson, M.D.
180 Claremont Ave., Apt 21
New York, NY 10027
(914) 422-5693
September 11, 1992
James A. Baker III
Chief of Staff
The White House
1600 Pennsylvania Ave., N.W.
Washington, DC 20500
Dear Mr. Baker:
I am a child psychiatrist who is a member of the Presidential
Roundtable. I am writing to give you a copy of some materials I
have sent to President Bush and Senator Phil Gramm, concerning some
ideas and suggestions for domestic policy and campaign strategy.
As I describe in the enclosed letter to President Bush, I am
interested in being of service to the President in developing ideas
for domestic policy, especially concerning children and families,
and in helping with the re-election effort.
Please make use of the enclosed ideas and suggestions and
inform me as to how I can be of most assistance to you and
President Bush.
Thank you for your consideration.
Sincerely yours,
CalE.Anderson,m.0,
Carl E. Anderson, M.D.
Carl E. Anderson, M.D.
180 Claremont Ave., Apt. 21
New York, NY 10027
(914) 422-5693
September 11, 1992
The Honorable George Bush
President of the United States
c/o Ron Kaufmann
Deputy Director, Office of Public Policy
The White House
1600 Pennsylvania Ave., N.W.
Washington, DC 20500
Dear President Bush:
I am a child psychiatrist who is a member of the Presidential
Roundtable. I am writing you in followup of a discussion I had
with Senator Phil Gramm concerning my interest in being of
assistance to you in developing ideas for domestic policy,
especially concerning children and families. Senator Gramm asked
for a written description of my ideas, which I provided to him at
the Republican National Convention.
I am writing to give you a copy of these ideas and
suggestions. I am doing this in order to help advance and expand
your policy agenda concerning children and families, to help make
it clear to the American people that you have an excellent domestic
policy agenda and to help ensure your and Vice President Quayle's
re-election.
I am enclosing my CV, which shows that currently I am
participating in a fellowship program in public psychiatry at
Columbia-Presbyterian Medical Center. Prior to that I served as
assistant unit chief of the Children's Day Hospital at The New York
Hospital-Cornell Medical Center, Westchester Division, in White
Plains, NY. During my work there, it became clear to me that the
way I could help those children the most was not to work with them
directly, even though I enjoyed that, but instead to multiply my
efforts by trying to improve government policy relating to children
and families.
After I finish my fellowship, I plan to work as a policy
advisor. My primary professional goal is to serve as an advisor to
you on issues of policy concerning children and families. Issues
of particular interest to me include promoting the integrity and
unity of families, breaking the cycle of welfare and dependence
(promoting individual initiative and self-reliance), preventing and
providing early intervention for children's problems (especially
behavior problems), providing for a better coordinated system of
services and programs for children, increasing safety and
decreasing crime, and advancing equal opportunity for all,
regardless of racial or other differences.
2
Please make use of these ideas as you see fit and please share
them with Vice President Quayle and other members of your staff.
I am also forwarding a copy of these materials to your Chief of
Staff, James A. Baker III. I am very interested in your feedback
and your suggestions as to how I can be most helpful in further
developing your domestic policy. I am available to further
elaborate and extend these ideas and, in addition, I can help with
ideas for speeches, public appearances, and ads.
I strongly urge that you, Vice President Quayle, and the other
Republican leaders give serious attention to the ideas and
suggestions I've offered because they suggest ways of addressing
some of our nation's serious problems and also ensuring a
Republican victory in November. I've put a great deal of time and
effort into developing these ideas and suggestions.
Thank you for your consideration.
Sincerely yours,
Cenderson, M.D.
Carl E. Anderson, M.D.
(914) 422-5693
CARL E. ANDERSON, M.D.
CHILD. ADOLESCENT. AND ADULT PSYCHIATRY
499 N. BROADWAY
WHITE PLAINS
SUITE 2C
NEW YORK 10603
CURRICULUM VITAE
Carl E. Anderson
OFFICE ADDRESS:
499 N. Broadway, Suite 2C
White Plains, NY 10603
(914) 422-5693
HOME ADDRESS:
180 Claremont Ave., Apt. 21
New York, NY 10027
(212) 749-4899
EDUCATION:
M.D., 1983, Cornell University Medical College
M.A., 1979, University of Michigan, Personality Psychology and
Psychobiology
B.A., 1975, Harvard College, cum laude, Psychology and Social
Relations
LICENSES:
New York
PRESENT APPOINTMENTS:
1992-
Fellow in Public Psychiatry, Columbia-Presbyterian
Medical Center
1992-
Visiting Clinical Fellow, Columbia University
PREVIOUS APPOINTMENTS:
1990-92
Assistant Unit Chief, Children's Day Hospital, The New
York Hospital-Cornell Medical Center, Westchester
Division
1990-92
Clinical Affiliate in Psychiatry, New York Hospital
1990-92
Instructor in Psychiatry, Cornell University Medical
College
1990-92
Coordinator, Course on Child Development and
Psychopathology for PGY-III Residents, The New York
Hospital-Cornell Medical Center, Westchester Division
1991-92
Preceptor, Psychopathology Course for Second Year Medical
Students, Cornell University Medical College
1989-90
NIMH Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Child Psychiatry, New
York State Psychiatric Institute
1989-90
Assistant Clinical Attending Psychiatrist, Columbia-
Presbyterian Medical Center
1987-89
Fellow in Child Psychiatry, Columbia-Presbyterian Medical
Center
1988-89
Consulting Psychiatrist, Brooklyn Center for Families in
Crisis
1983-87
Resident in Psychiatry, Duke University Medical Center
2
1986-87 Consulting Psychiatrist, Randolph County Mental Health
Center, Asheboro, NC
1976-79 Teaching Assistant, University of Michigan, Psychology,
Courses on Human Motivation and Behavior Modification
PUBLICATIONS:
Anderson, C.E. and Weissman, M.M., "Family studies of affective
disorders," chapter to appear in Depression in Children and
Adolescents, eds. H.S. Koplewicz and E. Klass, London:Harwood
Academic Publishers, in press.
Kushner, M., Anderson, C., and Hauser, W., "Transient global
amnesia: A case-control study," abstract, Annals of Neurology,
1982, 12:85-86.
BOOK REVIEWS
Manic-Depressive Illness, by F.K. Goodwin and K.R. Jamison, Journal
of Suicide and Life Threatening Behavior, in press.
UNPUBLISHED MANUSCRIPTS:
Anderson, C.E. and Valenstein, E.S., "Amygdaloid kindling and
sexual behavior in male rats, 1979, University of Michigan.
Taylor, S.E., Fiske, S.T., Close, M.M., Anderson, C.E., and
Roderman, A.J., "Solo status as a psychological variable: The power
of being distinctive,' 1977, Harvard University.
PRESENTATIONS:
Workshop, "Milieu, family, and classroom approaches in the
management of aggressive behavior in the day treatment setting,' in
symposium, "Aggressive and violent behavior in children and
adolescents: Multidisciplinary perspectives and treatment
approaches," The New York Hospital-Cornell Medical Center,
Westchester Division, 1991.
Grand Rounds, clinical presentation, The New York Hospital-Cornell
Medical Center, Westchester Division, 1991.
Child Psychiatry Rounds, research fellow presentation, "Family
studies of affective disorders," Columbia-Presbyterian Medical
Center, 1990.
Child Psychiatry Rounds, clinical presentation, Columbia-
Presbyterian Medical Center, 1988.
Psychiatry Grand Rounds, "Big brother/big sister organizations:
What do they accomplish?" Duke University Medical Center, 1987.
CURRENT PROFESSIONAL COMMITTEES
1991-
Advisory Council, Children's Core Service System,
Westchester County Department of Community Mental
Health
3
1990-
Advisory Committee, Rhinelander Children's Center,
Children's Aid Society, New York, NY
PREVIOUS COMMITTEES, NEW YORK HOSPITAL-CORNELL MEDICAL CENTER,
WESTCHESTER DIVISION:
1991-92
General Faculty Council, Cornell University
Medical College
1990-92
Child and Adolescent Psychiatry Education Council
1990-92
Child and Adolescent Psychiatry Rounds Committee
1990-92
Special Review Committee
1990-92
Utilization Review Committee
OTHER PREVIOUS PROFESSIONAL COMMITTEES:
1991-92
Chairman, Sub-Committee on Children and Families,
Regional Planning Advisory Council, Hudson River
Region, New York State Office of Mental Health
1985-87
Resident Representative, Psychiatry Residency Education
Committee, Duke University Medical Center
1985-87
Duke Representative, Members-in-Training Committee, North
Carolina Psychiatric Association
1985-87
Chairman, Psychiatry Psychotherapy Loan Fund Committee,
Duke University Medical Center
PROFESSIONAL ORGANIZATIONS:
American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry
New York Council on Child and Adolescent Psychiatry
American Psychiatric Association
American Medical Association
OTHER ORGANIZATIONS:
1989-
Program Committee, Harvard Club of New York City
1985-87
President, Harvard Club of the Research Triangle, NC
1985-87
Director, Duke Companions, a big brother/big sister
organization
1
Carl E. Anderson, M.D.
POLICY AND CAMPAIGN IDEAS AND SUGGESTIONS
SOLVING PROBLEMS
Individual responsibility for change
People are blaming the President as if he's to blame for all the problems in this country and as if he's
the only one that can improve the situation. We are looking for the quick fix and we are asking the President to
do something while we act helpless and sit back and watch instead of getting involved. The positive and
negative parts of this country are everyone's responsibility and the President can only point the way to a better
America. Many good things are being done, but unfortunately the negative things are emphasized more than
the positive ones. We can't expect that all problems will be solved immediately because they are very
complex. However, we can map out a strategy for bringing about positive change, which can start immediately.
It starts with each American having faith in our country and pledging to do what he or she can do to improve
the country, to work harder, to focus on strengths rather than on weaknesses, to be more loving towards other
people, and to be more tolerant of people of different races and ethnic backgrounds, genders, disabilities, and
other individual differences. Instead of complaining about the President, about what he has or hasn't done or
should or shouldn't do, focus on what you can do yourself to make America a better country.
Importance of people becoming involved with constructive change rather than just complaining
We have had the problem of individuals and groups doing less than they can do to bring about
constructive change so that they can point to problems and use them as tools for gaining personal or group
political power or financial gain. Too many policies have been developed with the hidden goal of advancing
the cause of the people promoting them and not the cause of the people they are allegedly designed to help.
For example, a political/religious leader might criticize other people for not doing enough to solve the
problems of poverty, saying that if he himself had that leadership position, he would solve these problems.
At the same time, he may be doing nothing to solve these problems himself. If he actually did something
constructive now, he would not have negative conditions as a bargaining tool for gaining political/financial
advantage. We must point this out when it is happening and put pressure on ourselves and each other to do
what we cando now to improve our country, instead of just complaining.
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Spiritual problem
We don't have an idea or change problem or a Presidential problem in this country as much as we have
a spiritual and moral problem. We should encourage people to pray for a spiritual and moral renewal in this
country because without such a renewal, new ideas will accomplish little.
Understanding problems in depth
We must understand problems in depth and develop careful responses to them. Many programs
developed in the past have been well-meaning, but have been based upon a superficial understanding and
simplistic assumptions.
Learning from the past, but concentrating on the present and future
We should study the past and learn as much as we can from it, in terms of what has worked and what
hasn't. At the same time, we should concentrate less on problems and injustices from the past and more on
present realities and future possibilities.
Improving current programs
Some of the programs that government has developed to solve social problems have actually made
these problems worse. These programs had their uses in the past, but the problems have changed and it it time
now to revise our national social policy agenda and develop new programs.
New ideas
The President can move quickly into the perceived role of the proposer of change, with the probable
result that people complaining and asking for change will resist suggestions for change. The President can focus
on this and say, "You asked for change, but you really don't want it."
Individual involvement
-When people confront the President about what he is or is not doing, he should reflect this back on them,
asking them what they are doing and giving them suggestions as to how they can become involved. He can say,
"Great. Let's get going." Many people would like to help, but don't know how.
-Individuals should be asked to volunteer their services and expertise in a variety of ways. To facilitate this,
volunteer centers, with telephone hotlines, could match volunteers with useful things they can do.
-Non-professional people can be very helpful and can do some things currently being done by professionals, e.g.,
in providing some healthy relationships which currently are being provided by therapists and case managers.
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Task forces
To create a process for facilitating change, the President could assemble a team of advisors, organized
in task forces in different policy areas, e.g., families and children, promotion of work and initiative, health,
education, and increasing lawful behavior. There could be community, regional, and national task forces which
could include people with a variety of levels of expertise and political backgrounds. They could be asked to
analyze current problems and propose strategies for approaching them. Task forces at different levels could
communicate with each other. The President could meet regularly with the national task forces and could visit
the community and regional ones. The purpose of these task forces would be to involve Americans in finding
solutions to problems as an alternative to Americans acting helpless and criticizing the federal government.
The issues of America should be the issues of Americans.
Battle plan
The President could portray the current domestic situation as a "war" and then draw up a "battle plan".
Television ads could say, "The man who brought you victory in Desert Storm is taking on an even more difficult
enemy: hopelessness, despair, family disintegration, homelessness, and crime in America. It is time to declare
war and set up a battle plan." Then, the "battle team" could be announced and their could be regular "war
briefings". Individuals could be enlisted in fighting this "war." We could call out the "reserves", consisting of
all Americans seeking to improve our country.
Communicating with Americans: understanding, caring, and encouragement
It is important for the President to clearly demonstrate to Americans that he understands and cares
about them and that communicating with them is important to him. The President could invite individual
Americans to talk with him at The White House, which would demonstrate that he is accessible and is
interested in listening. He could convey the idea that he is trying to understand problems better and will use
this understanding in devising solutions to problems. People are critical of the President when they feel
hopeless and are worried about the future. He should let them know he understands how they feel and should
give them encouragement and outline specific steps he is taking and will take in order to address their concerns.
Americans want to hear that things will be okay.
-A useful slogan would be, "We must bring America back. America has lost its way and must find it again."
Expansion of current domestic policy agenda
While proposing new ideas, the President should make it clear that he is not developing a new plan for
domestic policy, but is expanding and more clearly articulating his current plan.
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UNIFIED APPROACH TO PROBLEMS
The President should stress the importance of focusing on our common goals and objectives as Americans
and setting aside our differences. We must have a unified approach to problems, involving people of all
parties, races, ethnic backgrounds, ages, genders, socioeconomic levels, educational backgrounds, professional
and work backgrounds, disabilities, and people with other differences. If individuals or groups will not become
involved in constructive ways, then this should be pointed out. We must all work together if we are to solve our
problems. Let us have a unified assault on problems, instead of passive blaming and backbiting.
Suggestions
-The Republican party can take the lead in promoting a bipartisan approach to problems, with politicians from
both parties working together to formulate policy, concentrating on areas of agreement on important issues.
Republicans can invite Democrats to join them in improving the country, instead of just blocking the President's
policy ideas and being oppositional.
-Federal agencies should work as closely as possible together, e.g., concerning families and children, in order to
accomplish more with less duplication and lower cost.
-Special task forces can be established to bring about better federal interagency coordination, e.g., a task force
on children and families.
-Federal agencies should work as closely as possible with state and local agencies. As much as possible should
be done by the communities themselves.
-Task forces can be established in order to bring about better coordination of federal, state, and community
efforts.
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AS FACILITATOR
More government isn't the solution to our problems. Government should be seen as a facilitator of
change, but not as responsible for all change. The policy ideas described here can be implemented by the
federal government or the federal government can encourage state and local government and private
organizations to implement them, with the federal government providing assistance.
Suggestions
-The federal government should encourage individuals, organizations, foundations, and churches to help with
problems that traditionally have been considered the responsibility of the federal government. The federal
government can help with finding solutions to problems and can help with identifying non-government resources
and integrating them with government resources. Much of the work should be done at a local level, with local
5
money.
-The federal government could create a national clearing house of information and resources concerning domestic
issues and constructive change.
-Research on policy issues should be strongly supported so that we can have a rational basis for making policy
decisions and we can have an idea of what will and will not work before we commit a great deal of money to
new initiatives. Money should not be spent for new programs or added to old programs without a careful
analysis of how effective current programs are and which new programs probably will be the most effective.
EFFICIENT USE OF RESOURCES
Resources are limited and we must make the best use of the resources we have. We must not throw
money at problems (deluding ourselves that we are accomplishing something), but should spend money in a
thoughtful and focused way. We should remember that our most important resource is the American people.
Suggestions
-Money for new programs can be taken from existing programs and services which are the least effective.
PROMOTING INDIVIDUAL INITIATIVE AND WORK AND DECREASING DEPENDENCE
We must affirm the idea that people are responsible for their own lives. Too many people avoid taking
responsibility for their own actions and, instead, blame other people for their own problems. Too many people
expect their lives to be perfect and feel someone else is to blame, and should pay for it, if things don't work out
perfectly. Life isn't easy and we harm people when we try to make their lives too easy. Government can't and
shouldn't take on the responsibility of making people's lives easy and perfect. If people aren't allowed to fail,
they won't be able to succeed. Government can help people to do things for themselves, but when government
does too much, people become too dependent. Public assistance programs enslave people when they bring about
dependence.
Nothing for nothing
-People should receive money for doing something rather than for doing nothing. If people receive money for
doing nothing, they don't value this money and they lose their self-respect and sense of challenge in life.
People should not be forced to work; it should be their choice. However, if they don't work, they shouldn't
receive any money. Work must be a prerequisite for receiving public assistance, or else there will be a negative
6
effect on the attitudes of people already working.
Suggestions
-"Work" can consist of something productive, no matter how minor. There should be extremely few people who
can't do anything whatsoever. For example, even quadriplegic people can do productive things.
-People who are unemployed could receive money for efforts in finding jobs, which is a productive activity.
-People shouldn't receive services for nothing, e.g., health services or child care. They should pay something,
even if only a small amount.
Gradual decrease in benefits, facilitating people getting off public assistance programs
-When people do more, they should have more money.
-As people on public assistance do more, there should be a gradual, instead of a sudden, decrease in benefits,
which will make it less threatening for people to get off public assistance.
Job training and programs
-We should promote vocational training, which should start at a young age. Not everyone should go to college.
-We should develop programs like the WPA and the CCC ( the Civilian Conservation Corps) in order to
improve our country while giving jobs to people currently receiving public assistance. Most of the money
currently spent on public assistance programs could be channeled into job programs, so that no one would receive
any money unless he or she did something productive. Everyone should be able to do something productive, e.g.,
minimal manual labor or, for certain groups like the retarded, sheltered workshops.
-The federal government could provide assistance to people searching for jobs, e.g., setting up employment
centers, which could provide information about available jobs and also job and career counseling. People could
be helped with developing job skills and writing resumes. There could be support groups for people who are
unemployed and are looking for work.
Promoting business
We should promote business growth and entrepreneurship.
Suggestions
-Government could develop a clearing house of information on businesses people can develop, provide education
about setting up businesses and proper business practices, and provide consultants concerning business problems.
-Business people, currently working or retired, could provide information and encouragement to people trying to
7
set up businesses.
-Loans could be provided for people setting up businesses, which they must pay back. An effective technique
has been to give loans to people in groups, such that the group helps the individual to be responsible in using
and paying back the loan.
STRENGTHENING THE FAMILY
We need policies to promote family unity rather than family disintegration. Children need families.
They need both mothers and fathers. Mothers can't raise children alone (Ellwood). One parent can't do the
work of two.
Suggestions
-We should develop classes to help people learn how to become better parents, e.g., learning effective
discipline techniques so they will be less likely to abuse their children.
Family planning
Whether or not abortion is legally allowable, it's still an awful thing. We should concentrate less on
the issue of abortion and more on educating people in planning their families and in becoming more responsible
in their sexual lives and in parenting. Families should be planned and not just be accidents.
Suggestions
-The President could say he supports the Constitution as applied to the issue of personal reproductive rights
and as interpreted by the Supreme Court. The President could remain neutral on the issue of abortion and could
offer ideas about alternatives to unplanned pregnancy.
-We should educate children and adolescents about responsible sexuality and parenting. We should promote
delayed initiation of sexual activity for adolescents, not just safe or safer sex.
-Children and teenagers must have constructive activities available, to give them more alternatives to sexual
behavior.
-The media should be urged to present more images of positive and non-sexual friendships and relationships.
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Mothers and children
Suggestions
-We should stop the association between having children and receiving benefits. Mothers should not receive
anything for nothing. They should receive money only for work or for participation in educational programs,
regardless of how many children they have.
-Child care could be provided for mothers receiving public assistance, but this should be child care that the
mothers pay for, even if at a reduced rate. A voucher system could be used to pay for child care, i.e., mothers
could receive these vouchers for working or for doing something else productive (rather than reproductive).
-For mothers who have additional children while receiving public assistance, these children might receive
food, child care, and medical care directly, but these mothers should not receive additional cash assistance
payments.
Fathers and children
Children need fathers. Therapists, caseworkers, and coaches can help, but they are not substitutes for
fathers. We should stop blaming fathers as being the major cause of family disintegration. Many absent
fathers probably would like to become more involved, but don't know how to do this. Even if some fathers are
very much to blame, we will help them to become more involved by encouragement, rather than blame, and by
incentives for involvement and disincentives for non-involvement. Mothers should take more responsibility for
their sexual lives and should help fathers to become more involved by being more positive and less blaming.
Suggestions
We need:
-More research on the causes of father absence and the effects of this on children.
-Classes on responsible fathering.
-More incentives for increased involvement of fathers.
-Support groups for absent fathers.
-Fathers should be forced to provide child support. Information on fathers could be required as a prerequisite
for mothers receiving public assistance.
When one or both parents are absent or neglectful
All children need to be cared for by responsible and caring adults. If one or both parents are not
available or are neglectful, other adults in the community can and should assume positive parenting roles.
Children need real people in their lives more than they need therapists or caseworkers.
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Suggestions
-Improve foster parent programs.
-Support programs, like Big Brothers/Big Sisters and Foster Grandparents, in which non-professionals provide
healthy adult relationships for children.
Activities for children
Children and teenagers need constructive activities which help them learn, develop healthy
relationships, and stay occupied, so they can avoid crime, drugs, and sex.
Suggestions
-Support after-school activity programs and organizations such as Boys' and Girls' Clubs and Boy Scouts and
Girl Scouts.
IMPROVING HOUSING ARRANGEMENTS
"Homelessness" is a very complicated problem. People are "homeless" for a variety of reasons, not just
because of a lack of government subsidized housing. The federal government can help as a facilitator, can help
with ideas and information concerning housing, and can help coordinate different housing initiatives (federal,
state, and local; public and private). Much can and must be done on a local level.
Suggestions
-Develop a term as an alternative to "homeless", which is misleading and simplistic.
-Support research to analyze the causes of "homelessness" and the effectiveness of programs designed to help
"homeless" people.
-Policies should be developed which encourage people to stay in their homes and not give them incentives for
leaving their homes, as in New York City where people who were classified as "homeless" received priority
for public housing.
-Treatment of "homeless" people with mental illness and/or substance abuse should be a priority, much of
which can be done by community mental health agencies.
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IMPROVING HEALTH CARE
We must recognize that we cannot have the ultimate in health care available for everyone at a low
cost. We must set some priorities.
Suggestions
-The federal government can help to design a health care system which provides a basic level of health care
for everyone and which can serve people not covered by current private and public health care programs. There
could be two levels of health care available: a basic level of care available for everyone, which would be
primarily preventive and would keep costs down, and expanded levels of health care which people could
provide for themselves through private health insurance or personal resources.
-An important principle is that people shouldn't receive health services for nothing. People should pay
something, even if only a small amount. This will help them to place greater a value on the services they
receive, will help them to be less dependent, and will help them to be more responsible in the use of these
services.
INCREASING SAFETY AND DECREASING CRIME
Involving firearm organizations and lobbies with efforts to increase safety and decrease crime
-The President should avoid talking about gun control (because Americans don't like the idea of "control") and
should talk instead about a campaign to increase safety and security and to protect families and children,
while preserving the lawful right to bear arms.
-We should challenge firearm organizations and lobbies to help make America a safer place. We should help
them to focus on the responsible use of guns (everyone agrees with that) and the protection of children and
families and steer away from the issue of gun control.
-We should support legislation to preserve the constitutional lawful right to bear arms in order to allay fears
that limitations on the most deadly weapons will lead to a limitation on the lawful use of guns.
Prevention of criminal behavior
-We need more research on the causes and prevention of criminal (antisocial) behavior. Research findings can
be-used in developing policy and programs.
-The federal government should become more involved with preventing problems from developing rather than
primarily reacting to them. Early focused intervention can prevent antisocial behavior from beginning.
Preventing conduct disorder (the childhood form of adult antisocial behavior) from developing in the first
11
place will, in the long run, save more money and be more effective than trying to control criminals whose
behavior has already developed and solidified.
-Promote healthy families and keep children occupied with productive activities so that they won't associate
with criminals or become involved with crime.
-Promote programs which involve the juvenile justice system in early intervention with children and
adolescents with behavior problems in order to keep these problems from worsening (e.g., the PINS program in
New York).
Immediate consequences for criminal behavior
-Have immediate consequences for antisocial behavior, even for minor things. For example, there should be
strong responses to the first offense, especially for children and teenagers.
-Have immediate trials and sentencing.
Separate adolescent and adult criminals
-Keep teenagers and children away from adult criminals in the justice system, to stop them from learning worse
antisocial behavior and to prevent children and adolescents from seeing themselves as "criminals." Instead,
they should see themselves as having behavior problems which must stop and must be replaced by more
constructive behavior.
IMPROVING PRISONS
Prisons should modify criminal behavior and should promote positive individual change (being
rehabilitative).
Research
-We need more research concerning which types of prison programs are most effective and which alternatives to
prisons are most effective.
Location
-Ideally, prisons would be located in rural settings, because they would provide a healthy physical
environment, but they shouldn't be so remote that it is difficult for family members to visit.
Physical structure
-Prisons should have adequate space, both inside and outside.
12
-Space should be provided for exercise/athletics.
Rehabilitative programs
Behavior modification
-Prisons should use a behavior modification program, e.g., reinforcement of positive behavior and extinction of
negative behavior. There should be a graded system of rewards, such that prisoners would receive basic things
automatically but must work in order to earn additional things, e.g., better food and accommodations or special
privileges. In addition, such techniques as a token economy could be used.
Problem solving
-Problem solving techniques should be taught, especially in order to help people learn to meet their needs in
non-criminal ways.
Work
-The prisons should have their own businesses (producing products and performing services) to teach positive
work attitudes and job skills. Private businesses could be involved with establishing these prison businesses.
Relationships
-There should be a concentration on promoting positive relationships, which will be very helpful when people
leave prisons.
Psychiatric/psychological treatment
-Psychiatric/psychological treatment should be available and should focus on constructive individual change,
not on rationalizations for behavior.
DECREASING RELIANCE ON DRUGS
While we are trying to prevent the illegal use of drugs in this country, it is important to gain a complete
understanding of why people use drugs and what things drugs are providing for people that they are not getting
in other parts of their lives. For example, being involved with the drug trade can provide people with
relationships they don't otherwise have. Once we better understand the emptiness in people's lives, we can
help people to meet their needs in more productive and less destructive ways.
A useful thing to learn from the drug epidemic is that, with the high financial incentives involved,
13
drug dealers and other workers will expend a great deal of energy in their work and will take significant risks.
Although they are expending their energy in the wrong direction, this does demonstrate that some people who
might be considered helpless and dependent on society can indeed work very diligently when they perceive
that rewards are available. We can help provide them with ways of channeling this energy in more
constructive directions,
We must affirm the control that each person has over his or her life, that people choose to become
involved with drugs and they can choose not to use drugs. We can provide help for people involved with drugs,
but they don't need more excuses. Ultimately this is a spiritual problem and government, social policy, and
psychotherapy cannot provide the ultimate solution.
INCREASING RACIAL UNITY
The reasoning concerning racial problems has been too simplistic. The issues and problems are more
complicated than simply racial. We must emphasize that the individual is responsible for his/her own
destiny and his/her own success during life. This isn't government's responsibility. We should focus on present
opportunities rather than past injustice. We shouldn't promote current discrimination in order to make up for
past discrimination, or discrimination will never stop. We should stop those who seek personal gain by causing
disunity and division, using race as a weapon. We should stop racial blackmail and stop the undue influence of
racial and other special interest groups on government policy.
Focusing less on race
We have focused on racial issues in order to help people of different races relate better with each other
and in order to give special help to people of particular racial groups who have faced discrimination in the
past, but in focusing SO much attention on race, we have inadvertently made racial problems worse. Any policy
that gives preferential benefits based upon race increases attention to racial differences, which increases racial
resentment and bias.
We should consider dropping the term "minority" because it is outmoded and is no longer needed. The
term "minority" is perjorative and connotes inferiority. This term has become a self-fulfilling prophecy, for
people can internalize this concept and can believe that they are inferior and can't succeed without special
help. Using the term "minority" makes worse the problems that the term was supposed to help improve; it
brings attention to racial differences that are irrelevant to suitability for education, employment, and success.
Race is one of the least important qualities of a person. The terms "black" and "white" are meaningless,
because there is much more diversity within "blacks" and "whites" than between them.
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Instead of giving so much attention to racial differences, we should emphasize things we have in
common. We are all Americans and we have common dreams. Everyone's ethnic identity should be respected
and valued, not just that of "minorities." We can have a common American identity, while preserving our
individual ethnic and cultural identities.
Extension of civil rights programs
Civil rights programs accomplished a great deal, but now we need to go further in order to ensure equal
access to education, employment, and contracts, etc., for all people, regardless of race, gender, disability, or
other individual differences. We should now move beyond affirmative action and quota programs, since they
have already accomplished all they can. These programs suggest that the people given preferential
treatment by them are inferior and can't succeed without special treatment.
Assistance with education and employment
Instead of having quota systems, we should provide encouragement and assistance for "minorities" and
other poorly functioning groups in becoming educated and finding jobs.
Suggestions
-People from poorly functioning groups could receive special help during high school, attention in college
recruitment, help during college, and help in gaining job skills and applying for jobs. This extra assistance
should be available for people of all racial backgrounds and could depend on factors such as socioeconomic
level.
Increased communication
We should promote increased communication between all people of different races, religious
backgrounds, and genders.
Suggestions
-We should have educational programs designed to increase understanding of different ethnic and racial
backgrounds.
-We should encourage people to share skills and expertise with other people, regardless of race.
15
More careful use of statistics
-We should use statistics more carefully, because statistics can be misleading. Statistical differences between
racial groups do not necessarily prove racism or discrimination (as described by Thomas Sowell in Preferential
Policies). The real situation is much more complex. Statistics should focus less on racial differences and more on
more important factors, such as socioeconomic background.
SUGGESTIONS FOR CAMPAIGN TELEVISION ADS
Solving problems
-Ads could state, "The man who brought you victory in Desert Storm is taking on an even more difficult enemy:
decay, hopelessness, despair, family disintegration, homelessness, and crime in America. It is time to declare
war and set up a battle plan." Then, the "battle team" could be portrayed and the "battle plan" could be
outlined.
Change
-A useful slogan would be, "People are talking a lot about change. What they are really looking for is more of
what has always been the best of America." In a television ad, this could be coupled with scenes of families
doing happy things.
Being positive and providing encouragement
-Create an image of a great country, with Americans doing positive things.
-Publicize positive things happening around the country, e.g., with mailings and TV programs, associating
these positive things with the President.
-A useful campaign slogan would be, "We must bring America back. America has lost its way and must find it
again."
-Show Americans thanking the President for all he has done for this country.
Communication
-Show the President discussing issues with Americans of all types, including children, asking about their
concerns and asking for their advice. This will show that the President is accessible and can listen. Then,
follow this with a outline of policies that will address the problems that were discussed. Appointments with
the President could be set up on a lottery basis.
-The President could tell Americans that he needs their help and then could suggest what they could do to
help. This would motivate people to be more forgiving and more active.
16
Gov. Clinton is a poor leader
-Show a film clip of Gov. Clinton being ingratiating and childish next to a clip of President Bush being a leader
during the Gulf Crisis and ask, "Who would you have preferred being in charge during the Gulf Crisis?"
"Minorities"
-Design ads oriented towards African American middle class people, saying that Gov. Clinton won't help them
and showing how the Republican ticket can help them.
CAMPAIGN SUGGESTIONS CONCERNING GOV. CLINTON
No coherent plan
-Empty promises.
-Tired rhetoric.
-He's too simplistic.
-He says what he thinks Americans want to hear.
-He doesn't understand the issues and doesn't have a coherent policy agenda.
-His ideas are not really new.
-In his acceptance speech he didn't describe any new programs, because he doesn't have any.
-The President can invite Gov. Clinton to suggest ideas for ways of improving our country, saying that he is
always interested in hearing new ideas. Gov. Clinton isn't able to carry out the changes he suggests, but
President Bush would welcome any ideas he has.
No change
-Gov. Clinton wouldn't be a President of change.
-President Bush is working for real constructive change, not just superficial change based upon superficial
rhetoric.
Not realistic
-Gov. Clinton's plan is not realistic.
No experience
-He doesn't have enough experience with national and international politics and leadership. He won't be able
to translate his experience in Arkansas to working on national and international levels.
17
Unknown
-He's an unknown quantity.
-Ask Americans, "Do you really want to take a chance with Bill Clinton? What would really happen if he
became President?"
Weak
-He's weak and wouldn't be effective as a President.
-He wouldn't have been an effective leader during the Gulf Crisis.
NRN
JAB-OTA
James Baker,
Whitehouse Chief of Staff
Mr. Baker
First I would like to thank you for your dedication
over the years to our Counters' Foreign Policies and
efforts towards Peace and Democracy in the World.
I have never gotten involved Politically but this
year is different. I believe it is essential that the
President is re-elected.
Enclosed are copies of various letters I have sent
expressing my views and some of the issues and points that
I believe are not being emphasized in the Media and in the
Campaign. I hope they will help since they are coming
from a point of view that is on the receiving end of the
Media here in N.Y.
Yours Truly
Arthur Donigi
101 Gedney St.
Nyack, N.Y. 10960
9/14/92
July 15,1992
Vice President Dan Quale
White House
Washington
D.C. 20500
Mr. Vice President,
I have been watching the Democratic Convention on
C-Span with great interest. I was especially intrigued
by the acceptance Speech of Jimmy Carter at the 1980
Convention. I believe that a review of that Speech
would afford a great many opportunities.
For example He spoke critically of how the policies
of the nominee Pres. Reagan would be disastrous regarding
the Soviet Union, How Proud he was of the Camp David Accord
And finally how a Military Buildup could not win the Cold
War. I would say he was wrong on most accounts and the
progress made by Republican Policies regarding the Mid-East
The Soviet Union , Germany, Viet-Nam Nicaragua etc. were
beyond his wildest imagination. Since he felt the Republican
approach to the U.S.S.R. WAS WRONG I can't see
any reason why the Republicans can't take most of the Credit.
It was a Democratic President that allowed the Military
to become so weak that Americans were slaughtered at Pearl
Harbor, that couldn't knock out enemy tanks with 2.5 bazookas
in KOREA. That wouldn't allow the Military to fight to win
by imposing stupid rules of engagement or placing Targets Off
Limits in Viet-Nam, etc. It was a Democratic President that
gave away Europe to Communists, it was a Democratic President
that sold out the people of Cuba.
Now as before they want to dismantle the Military.
Of Course Foreign Policy was left out of the Democratic
Convention except for some students from Tienimen Square.
This was an effort to show how the Republicans are not
concerned about Human Rights.
I wonder if they would have people from Nicaragua, East
Germany, South Korea, Panama and the Russian Jews on the same
Platform? Or possibly some people from Cuba only 90 miles
away. Its interesting that the New York Times wrote an
article saying that Conditions in China have improved
somewhat. I guess they think that we can change an Ancient
Culture of over a Billion people by not having any relations
with them.
I also noticed that the reductions of Nuclear Warheads
was not even mentioned or that for the first time ISRAEL
has been at the same table with the Arab States and the
Palestinians.
One of the Central Themes was putting America back to
work. This really made my Blood boil. Being Unemployed
has allowed me to witness the Senate and House in Action.
It seems to me that any Legislature that could provide
job was intentionally, Amended knowing that the amendment
would cause the Bill to be Vetoed, not brought to the Floor
or delayed until it would have no effect on the Economy
until 1993.
On of the things that Carter said in his acceptance
Speech was the need to develop our Natural Resources of Oil
and Natural Gas so we would not have to be Dependent on the
Arab Countries. So what happens in Congress? They
eliminated the Exploration for Oil in Alaska, I guess all the
Environmentalists were ecstatic over that. I guess the Jobs
that would have been created plus the Investment were not
important. The new Vice Presidential Nominee was at the lead
in opposition to this with his wacky Liberal friends who
are so concerned about the poor the unemployed the homeless
and of course the spotted owl that the creation of jobs has
become secondary to their Agenda. What Hypocrisy!!
It must be obvious to anyone who has watched the
Congress that the Liberal Democrats have made a Pre-meditated
effort to do nothing to help the Economy lest it get better.
They have taken the Lives of the American Workers and used
them for their own Political quest to undermine the
President.
Mr. Vice President I once had a Boss that told me
that being Diplomatic and nice is only Good, when you are
dealing with people that deserve it. For the sake of the
Country its time to take the gloves off and defend the
Americans whom you represent. The Enemy is not just a
different Philosophy, but a determined effort by Atheist,
Socialists and Immoral Groups that will not be content until
they gain control of the Country. The Day that we deny the
existence of God will be the beginning of the End.
I once did a chart and listed the following,
GOD, RELIGION, PATRIOTISM, ABORTION, PROMISCUITY ADULTERY
PORNOGRAPHY, PROSTITUTION, LAWLESSNESS. I then asked a friend
to make two columns, Good and Bad. The results were as
follows:
GOOD
BAD
GOD
ABORTION
RELIGION
PROMISCUITY
PATRIOTISM
ADULTERY
RESPONSIBILITY
PORNOGRAPHY
PROSTITUTION
It seems that the Liberals LAWLESSNESS have reversed these Columns )
And made Good, Bad and Bad Good.
I'm hoping that you can convey these thoughts in context to
the American People who at this point are Angry, Confused and
Disillusioned.
Please keep up the Good work and with Gods help we can
fulfill this Country's Destiny.
Yours truly
Arthur Donigi
101 Gedney St.
Nyack
N.Y. 10960
sent
My Fellow Americans,
When I stood before You Four years ago I made a promise
of No New Taxes. I broke that Pledge because I felt it was
an absolute necessity to control Run A Way Spending and to
deal with the Enormous Deficits facing us. I knew at the
time that I would be crucified Politically but felt it was
necessary for the Good of the Country. I felt that working in
a bipartisan way would in the long run be beneficial to the
Nation. I even alienated Members of my OWN Party to
accomplish this bipartisan spirit. It was right to try to
Deal with the Deficit but, the Bipartisan Co-operation I had
hope to achieve never Materialized. It seems that some in
the Congress just wanted to use this Tax Increase for
Political Gain, This group in the Congress has held the
American Economy Hostage for Political Gain. There are People
on Both Sides of the Aisle that Support Most of the Proposals
I have recommended in my Economic Plan. However these have
never been given the opportunity to be Voted on. I take
blame for much of this because I - did not go directly to the
American People urging their support.
Many things have happened since then. The World is
a safer place Democracy is on the move and for the First Time
there is a Confidence in the United Nations' Ability to truly
function as it was meant to. There is the real possibility
of Peace in the Mid East, the Former Soviet Union is no more
and Russia and the United States are once more working
together with our European Allies to make Progress in their
new found freedoms. Who could have imagined that in a Few
short Years we have multilaterally reduced Nuclear Warheads
by 50% and made drastic cuts in Conventional Forces.
The World is still a Dangerous Place and as Shown in the
Persian Gulf a Modern Technological well trained Military
is a Luxury we cannot do without. Our overwhelming Military
Superiority and that of our Allies Saved Thousands of lives
of United Nation forces. I will never let our Military be
cut anymore than is Necessary. The speed at which events
have unfolded allowed us to make additional cuts beyond what
was planned in 1990. This has resulted in the Loss of
millions of Defense, Military and defense related Jobs.
Eight States CAL. TEXAS, VIRGINIA, NEW YORK, FLA., MASS.
OHIO AND PENN. ACCOUNT FOR ONE HALF OF DEFENSE SPENDING.
They also account for one half of DEFENSE RELATED EMPLOYMENT.
The combined effects of defense cutbacks plus the drawdown of
military personnel and a RECESSION have had a devastating
effect on these States Economies and many states with
supporting industries.
With the Deficit Looming Near 400 Billion Dollars the
only way to help these Workers and Servicemen and women is to
stimulate the Economy to Create Jobs. Real Jobs not
Government handouts or unemployment checks. Jobs that are
created in the Private Sector. We need to look at Business
and Entrepreneurs as allies of middle-class America not the
enemy. We need to get rid of the Politicians in Congress
that have held the economy in a state of slow Growth by not
even bringing Job Creation Measures to a Vote.
The Congress passed a watered down Version of a Job Growth
Package But they did what most Economist told them not to
do. You don't raise taxes in a Recession. Capital creates
Jobs, additional Taxes lower available Capital to the Private
Sector and thus investment. They feel that they can spend
your money better than you can, on many Programs that don't
work.
We must reduce Spending we must control Entitlements
We must control the cost of Medical Coverage so that everyone
can get coverage and Catastrophic Illness does not wipe out a
lifetime of Savings. We have the greatest most advanced
health-care in the world but its too expensive. we must work
on controlling Costs and at the same time not slow down the
Medical advances and medical technology that our system
brings. We must revolutionize our Welfare system that
forces People to become dependents of Government and allow
them to have dignity and become part of the system.
We must realizes that we are Americans and as such we are to
be treated equally not separately. We must never forget the
Values of decency, responsibility, family, hard work,
patriotism and faith in God that have made this Country
the Greatest Country the World has ever known
To Rick Story
2438 Rayburn Bldg.
Washington, D.C.
20515
I called Newt Gingrich's office and they said you were
the person to contact.
I have enclosed the following news clippings from our
local papers for you to look at and have underlined some of
the things that seemed absurd. In addition I would like to
make the following comments from my perspective as a
concerned citizen. I hope these articles and comments will
be useful to the campaign.
Bill Clinton stated his environmental record was not so
good because he had to choose between the environment and
Jobs. This is exactly the position the President took at the
Rio Summit. A1 Gore bashed the President non stop for this.
Clinton bashes Washington while his party has been in
control of both houses for almost the last 30 yrs.
Clinton tried to portray himself as a Moderate while
almost all of the speakers were liberals on the far left.
The media made a point of A1 Gore serving in Viet-Nam.
However as noted in the Times his motives were strictly
political ones. (see encld material).
Time Warner was a big contributor to the Convention
Read Charlston Hestons' statements. It seems like Gore is
taking the same position that Dukais took when asked what he
would do if his wife was raped.
When they talk about Economics they never used the
numbers of the Carter years while comparing them. It would be
interesting to remind the American people as to what they
were. I think they are hoping that we have short memories.
Thank you for your indulgence, I hope these have been
helpful.
Arthur Donigi
101 Gedney St.
Nyack, N.Y.
10960
sent
CONGRESSMAN R.K. DORNAN
C/O JOE EULE
301 COMMON H.O.B.
WASHINGTON D.C.
20515
Mr. Eule,
Mr. Bill Guzit recommended that I send you the following
materials and comments.
1. The C.B.O. study showing the negative impact on the
Economy and how further reductions would increase the
negative impact It seems to me that the message of the so-
called Peace Dividend is not extra money but a short term
negative effect of the economy ] The press and Media have
neglected to tell the American people this. If the Cuts were
spent and not used to reduce the Deficit the long term impact
would have even worse consequences.
The Press also points out the end of the Cold War and
uses that as a reason to cut even further. I would like to
point out that we never had to fight the U.S.S.R. Every
Military Action has been against less Formidable Forces.
The bulk of our Nuclear Force is what kept the Peace not
our Conventional Forces. These Nuclear Forces are already in
the process of being cut to numbers that were unimaginable
just a few years ago. That leaves us with Conventional Forces
that are ALSO being cut. I shudder to think of the casualties
that would have been taken had Iraq continued into Saudi
Arabia immediately after taking Kuwait.
Iraq did everything wrong, by digging in, not protecting
its Flank and allowing the U.N. forces the luxury of massing
overwhelming Forces with the arrival of heavy Armored
Divisions, Fighter Squadrons and Massive Naval Force. It
seems to me that we lack sufficient Sea-lift and Air-Lift
Capability to fight a Regional Conflict where we do not
have forces already in place. I believe that this could
cause a great many casualties. The only way this can be
avoided is by Massive Air Superiority as Demonstrated in the
Gulf. Therefore it is imperative that the ATF program goes
forward also it I believe is necessary to develope a Similar
Fighter for the Navy since most likely they would be first
on the Scene. I can only hope that in any future conflicts
Saddam Hussein would be the enemies commander and chief.
2. N.Y. TIMES\CBS POLL 6/17-20/1992
IT is interesting to see a poll taken with 93 Questions.
I believe the results were selective used at the time to
bolster Ross Perot. But the best was the Question # 85.
How in the World can a Flawed Poll like this even be
Published? The only answer has to be the Media is using
this to promote their own Agenda.
3. An Article written about the Fairness issue. The American
people have been Brainwashed regarding this issue by the
Media and the Liberal Democrats. The truth must be gotten
out.
Personal Comments,
The Liberal Press and Media have been bashing the
President since the Gulf War. They have been allowed to
succeed by the lack of information given to the American
People and a constant Bashing by Liberal Congressman
and Senators. Perception is very important and the
Republicans have not been given unbiased coverage.
A Bold aggressive statement of fact is needed. If it were
up to Me I would take a Full Page Ad in the N.Y. Times. I
would say something to this effect:
Since the Presidents Positions on Various Policies have
not been given Fair and Unbiased Media Exposure with the
exception of C-SPAN. We feel it is necessary to go directly
to the American People with an Un-editorialized Statement
of what has been the Gross Bias of many Newspapers and
Network Media Coverage.
Some of the Topics that could be used are.
The selective use of just one Topic (either Abortion, Family
Values and the ridicule of the mis-spelling of one word.
Nothing was said about the Mis-Quoting of the Scriptures
by Clinton and Gore or the Blasphemy of Jessee Jackson at the
Democratic Convention.
Nothing has been said of How the Liberals have held the
Economy Hostage by doing nothing to help Job Stimulation
The Transportation Bill held until the end of last Years
Session, knowing that its impact would not be felt until
late this year or early next year.
The refusal to even put to a Vote the Presidents Growth
Proposals unless saddled with additional Taxes, which all of
the Witnesses at the Dozens of Hearings said would have a
negative effect.
I could go on and on as you well know.
This could be a series.
First the reasons, which could show the Bias. Then Specific
Subjects , Economy, Defense etc. This could be done on a
consistent basis ending with the dismal results of Policies
in Arkansas and how Clinton could do the Same for the
Country.
These Ads could then lead to the Republican Convention
The American People given enough facts do make
intelligent decisions. A perfect example is the recent
Clarence Thomas Hearings and the Ollie North Inquisition
where the American People got the Facts Directly even
though the Mass Media tried to distort them.
I hope I have been helpful,
ARTHUR DONIGI
101 GEDNEY ST. NYACK, N.Y.
10960
sent
To the Editor,
I have just finished reading an article in which
Governor Florio, Lee Brown and Charles Schumer were
talking about the Banning of Assault Weapons along
with Curtis Sliwa.
I have been a Gun Owner for the last 25 Yrs. I have
owned the legal semi-automatic versions of both the Uzi and
the AK 47. I don't know if its a lack of knowledge or an
attempt to mis-lead the public but there is and has been
a Federal Law prohibiting the private ownership of Full
Automatic Weapons. This includes machine-guns, machine
pistols, sub-machine guns and Full automatic Assault Rifles.
What these people are talking about semi automatic
versions of the above. The difference is like a Formula
One Race Car and replica with a Volkswagon engine.
The Federal Government released thousands of M1 Carbines
and M1 Garand Rifles to the Civilian Market. These are the
same type of weapons as the semi-automatic version of
the assault rifles, however since they are semi-automatic
they are not Assault Rifles. It seems to me that we never
had a problem when these were used and owned by civilians.
Why don't we put the blame on the people that commit the
crimes.
There are more people slaughtered on our highways,
even though we have speed limits, DWI laws etc.
Using the logic of the people above we should ban all
cars than have the ability to go more than 70 mph. The
law is 55 so why would anyone need a car that goes faster
than 70 mph. Six inch Kitchen knives are the preferred
weapon of criminals who commit crimes. Lets ban them. Curtis
Sliwa was attacked with a baseball bat, ban them. In N.Y.
City an honest citizen cannot get a permit to carry a
pistol, unless he can prove that he carries large amounts of
cash. Perhaps if the Central Park Jogger had a carry permit
she wouldn't have been a victim. Possibly if more honest
citizens had permits that visiting family wouldn't have had
to watch their son die from stab wounds on a Subway Platform.
It seems that the only choice Liberal Democrates
will give Innocent People is the choice of being a victim of
Murderers In and Out of the Womb.
A. Donigi
Nyack, N.Y.
Congressman Dornan
I'm writing to you because I feel that my frustration
has gotten me to the point of having to do something.
I'm a man of 50 who has been unemployed for about Two Years.
I have just watched the Republican Convention and am glad
that the gloves are off. This Year however something seems
different. When I watched the Democratic Convention I viewed
it not as a different Party but almost as if I were watching
some Pagan Feast just before the fall of Rome. When I saw
the signs of the supporters I was appalled and saddened
that the Democrat Party has sunk to this level.
I'm not happy with the economy and it has been a
hardship but I understand most of the reasons we are
going through this period has little to do with Policy
and more to do with a changing World. I'm sure some
stimulus would help but if not done correctly would
probably hurt more in the long run.
However I'm writing to speak of the Gore-Clinton
ticket. Congressman I'm not a Vet although I'm from the
Viet-Nam Era. It seems to me that in my neighborhood
there were no protests only a bunch of my friends
that enlisted were drafted or were in College in the
ROTC program. Fortunately most of my friends came back
many of them were not exactly treated as Heroes in San-Diego
and some couldn't go to a Chinese Restaurant for Years.
I have never heard anyone of them say they regretted serving
their Country or that they ever lost a Battle. They were
not allowed to win because of Cowardly Politicians and
the Protest Groups that supported many of them. I personaly
felt afraid to go but registered in the Draft and was
classified 1Y, fortunately I wasn't called.
How in the world can the Democrat Party promote a
DRAFT DODGER that thanked his Draft Board for "Maintaining
My Political Viability". ? If the President of the United
States was not also it's Commander and Chief I don't think
I would have a problem with this.
I noticed in the Democrat Convention they showed Bill
Clinton standing near President Kennedy . Lets assume that
they were trying to make a connection, Clinton may be Young
he may have Charisma he may be intelligent and we know he has
the same Morals. Kennedy was not my choice nor do I think he
was a Good President however he demonstrated two qualities
that I believe are Pre-Requisites to becoming President of
the United States, a sense of Duty and Courage. These are
Qualities that come from within and cannot be learned or
taught.
What bothers me is that many of the supporters of the
Ticket are the same People that spat and jeered my friends
and caused the Cowards in Washington to put forward a no win
policy that caused the deaths un- neccessarily of so many
Brave young Americans.
I have been taught to forgive and let time heal,
however I believe this would be the ultimate insult to those
who served their Country and especially those whose names are
engraved on the Viet-Nam Monument in Washington.
If you were interviewing for an executive position in a
major corporation I doubt very much if you would hire someone
who ran a Candy Store yet this is exactly what the Democrats
are asking of the American People. Have the American People
forgotten Jimmy Carter?
Arkansas has an average Family income that is 9000.00
below the national average and the worst environmental record
in the country. What hypocrisy that the Media has chosen)to
not to make these details available to the American People.
The brave Governor of Arkansas doesn't mention that the
reason the per capita Tax Burden is 50 low is because
The taxable income is dismal and the services provided
are also dismal. Now he wants to do this for the Country.
I also understand that the U.S.S.IOWA can actually float in
the Arkansas waterways until the pollutants erode its hull.
How can the SAVE THE SPOTTED OWL Senator from Tennessee
support such a disaster especially after embarrassing the
United States at the Rio Conference with his
environmentalist left wing friends. Talk about a man with
no Conviction.
Congressman thank you for fighting on behalf of those whose
voice is not heard here in the Liberal Controlled Media that
supported Cuomo and Dinkins the Disastrous Duo.
Respectfully,
A. Donigi
101 Gedney St.
Nyack, N.Y. 10960
sent
SENATOR PETE DOMENICI
Dear Senator,
Unfortunately I have been unemployed for the past
two years. This has given me an opportunity to watch
Congress in action or should I say inaction on C-Span.
I am not a College Graduate or Economic Expert but the
following has become very clear. The Congress has been
willing to hold the American Economy Hostage for Political
Reasons. It seems to me that one side in Congress has been
willing to lie to the public by ignoring facts. In my
efforts to determine who is lying I began to gather as much
information on my as is possible.
The Democratic Congress has been more than a little
disingenuous about the Facts. The Military Drawdown has
caused or deepened the effect on the Recession as outlined
in the CBOs report "THE ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF REDUCED DEFENSE
SPENDING. I'm sure the Democrats have read this report and in
spite of this they are willing to cut even further more
quickly which would have even more of a disastrous effect.
The other LIE that has been repeated over and over again
is about how the top 1% have gained and the middle class has
lost. As described in the enclosed article this is a gross
distortion. It is also a gross distortion to base all
comparisons against the tremendous gains of the Reagan Years
without including the Disastrous Years of the Carter
Administration
Arkansas has had and continues to have one of if not the
highest poverty levels in the country. If you want to talk
about fairness; the Gap between the Well to do and poor has
actually increased in Arkansas. This is shown in the Enclosed
page from the New York Times.
Senator I'm sure I'm not telling you anything you don't
already know. It just seems to me that these facts which
should be emphised are not. They are either buried in
articles or ignored completely.
The Democrats have said that the President Vetoed a
Growth Package. What the Media doesn't report is that
in spite of dozens of hearings where witnesses said raising
taxes in a recession would be counterproductive, the
Democrats did just that. Knowing the President would Veto it
beforehand. They also don't say that the Veto over-ride did
not even produce a simple Majority. It seems the President
has to overcome the Press, Congress and the Lies that have
been told by omission.
I had recommended that a full page Ad regarding the
Bias and Distortions be Run in the N.Y. TIMES.
It is the only way to gain the initiative in what is
shaping up to be a Media Conspiracy.
I have listened to you on the Senate Floor and have
admired your work and dedication. Thank you for letting me
express my growing anger at the Propaganda that's taking
place.
Arthur Donigi
101
Gedney St.
Nyack, N.Y.
10960
Mary Matalin,
I just heard you on the Bob Grant show and after
listening to you I believe more strongly than ever that
a Bold New Initiative must be taken if the President is
to be re-elected. My reasons are simple, I like many other
Americans have been frustrated by the Media both Print and
especially T.V.. I once obtained a copy of a N.Y. Times Poll
with showed that 85% of the people got their News from T.V..
After witnessing the open Bias of the major Networks
I feel C-Span is the way I can get unbiased information.
I believe that Newspaper Ads Must be taken to put
the Media's feet to the fire. It could begin for example
"Because of The Bias which is confirmed by independent
watchdog groups we must present Un-edited unbiased facts that
we challenge anyone to dispute."
The following are some facts that are either carefully
omitted or not reported at all by the Media. I'm sure that
you can come up with many more. However these Ads must be
Factual and not just rhetorical so they can't be disputed.
The 1990 Tax Increase.
In order to control Spending and the runaway Deficit the
Democratic Leadership insisted that additional Taxes be put
on the Table before any Discussions began. The President
knew he would pay a terrible Political price but went along
with the increase to get Bi-Partisan Co-operation in Deficit
Control. The Liberal Democrats knew they could use his
Read My Lips quote as Political Fodder while they reneged on
Spending Control. In less than 18 Months the Liberal
Democratic Leadership was looking to Break the Fire-Wall
so they could use Defense Spending Cuts to finance additional
Programs which would have added to the Deficit. I would also
remind people that the Tax increase which was Democratically
sponsored was to Raise the Marginal tax Rates and impose A
Luxury Surtax on Boats Planes and Cars of over 30,000. The
lower revenues and loss of jobs from this (Lets get the Rich)
mentality can easily be illustrated.
Job Growth
The President sent a Job Growth /tax incentive Proposal
to the Congress. This was immediatly ignored. The President
distinctly presented it in two Stages the First Immediate
Consideration was for Job Stimulation the Second for Tax
Cuts and Spending Cuts. Richard Gebhardt put the total
package in a snide sneering demonstration which was clearly
spiteful before the Committee. The Rules Committee would not
allow Amendments or discussion on the Individual Aspects of
the Proposals. Presented in this way even if there was
Bi-Partisan Agreement on most of the Proposals they could
not be adopted since it would have to be all or nothing.
This after the President specifically said that there were
areas he knew would be controversial and to pass the things
that the Congress were in Agreement with, Capital Gains
Housing Credits Research and Development etc. These although
having wide bi-partisan support were not even allowed to be
brought to the floor on their own merits. The Rules
Committee made sure of that.
The Democrats then proceeded to construct their own
Package which was a watered down weakened version of the
Presidents. After having 24 Hearings and hundreds of
witnesses that said to raise Taxes in a Recession would be
Counter-Productive this is Exactly what they did. The
President said beforehand he would Veto any Tax increases
and he Did. Now the Story goes that the President Vetoed
a Job Growth Tax Incentive Bill. What they don't say is
The Veto over-ride could not even muster a SIMPLE MAJORITY.
This proves that the Liberal Proposal was not even seriously
considered by the People who voted for its passage and
at no time was it anything more than a Political Ploy to
use against the President. With the Help of the Media
they portrayed the President of not caring about the
economy and Protecting the Wealthy by not agreeing to Tax
Increases on them. In essence the Congress has held the
American Economy Hostage for Political Gain while saying
the President has no Domestic Policy.
The Transportation Bill
This Bill is one that would create Jobs in and around the
inner cities. One must wonder why Congress waited till the
very last minute to Pass it (just before they recessed).
Could it be they knew the effects of this bill would take
6 months to 18 months to have any impact? Therefore any
stimulative effect it would have would not be felt until
late 92 or early 93.
The Energy Bill
A Bi-Partisan committee came up with a well crafted balanced
energy Bill. This also included a provision to make us less
dependent of Foreign Oil by exploring a small Portion of
Alaska with all of the evironmental safeguards. This
provision was known as Answar. The Liberal leadership with
the help of Environmentalist Extremist defeated this
provision which would have created jobs, while at the same
time maintained environmental standards plus research for
alternate Fuels. It is also interesting that our Economic
Competitors are relying more and more on Nuclear Energy.
They do this because it is efficient and clean however
because of all the Red Tape in this Country Nuclear Energy
is not as Cheap a Source of Power as it could be.
The Economy
Bill Clintons Economic Plan calling for High Speed Rail
Communications Development comes (Verbatim) from a
Congressional Report. The C.B.O. study THE ECONOMIC EFFECTS
OF REDUCED DEFENSE SPENDING. However the Study states that
a quickening of Pace of Cuts or more Cuts would have even
more of a negative effect.
Two Points.
1. This Plan is not his own.
2. His proposed additional Cuts would worsen the Economies of
the Ten States that represent 50% of all Defense Spending.
These States include California Texas New York Florida
etc.
These are all things that are factual plus many many more.
The American People can make the right choice but they must
be given the FACTS. With the Media in the Bash Bush Mode
I feel these types of Ads which are Positive and part of the
Record would be very helpful in addition to sticking it the
T.V. Media Journalists who should be Named thus diluting their
Credibility. The most outrageous are Jennings, Browkaw,
Curalt, etc. I believe that the Liberals feel this is the
best Chance they have of gaining the White House and they
are making it open season on the President. I believe
we must take a NO-PRISONER approach to this Election.
I hope I have been helpful by expressing my views as
a Voter with my perspective from N.Y.
Keep up the good work.
Yours Truly
Arthur Donigi
sent
101 Gedney St.
Nyack N.Y. 10960
JABOBA
NRN
September 15, 1992
James A. Baker III
White House Chief of Staff
Bush/Quayle Re-election Campaign
1600 Pennsylvania Ave., N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20500
Dear Mr. Baker:
Interested in innovative ideas on how to help the economy?
Consider some of these. Have your experts calculate potential
direct savings, corollary benefits, and far reaching results.
You may want your strategists to contemplate the possibilities.
If you have questions or problems with aspects of this
concept, please call me. Answers to those problems may
already have been worked out and just need clarification.
Sincerely,
Bruce Radcliffe
cc: Michael J. Boskin
Council of Economic Advisors
Richard G. Darmen
Office of Management & Budget
Roger B. Porter
Economic & Domestic Policy
Enclosure
In health care, remedies but no cures
What's there to choose between George Bush and
Bush's solution to the same problem is decidedly
Bill Clinton on health care?
different. He proposes to extend tax credits and deduc-
Plenty. And very little.
tions to uninsured individuals and families that they
Plenty because, even allowing for the scantiness of
would use to purchase health coverage in the regular
detail in the Clinton plan, it is evident that the Repub-
insurance market.
lican president and the Democratic governor take vast-
He would encourage health insurance networks, or
ly different approaches to this critical national prob-
cooperatives, so that small businesses could offer cov-
lem. And, not solely because Bush's plan is more
erage to employees at lower prices. And he would
thoroughly developed, it is clear that his is better.
forbid some of the practices that currently exclude
And very little to choose because, despite their dif-
some people from the market and vitiate the shared-
ferences, neither Bush nor Clinton looks critically at
risk principle of insurance by curtailing exclusions for
the American health-care market and the false as-
things like "pre-existing conditions."
sumptions and perverse incentives that have distorted
There are valid questions to be asked about the Bush
it. Eventually, they and the American people will be
plan. Would the maximum $3,750 tax credit be
forced to do so.
enough to let a family buy a decent health insurance
Bush recently ridiculed Clinton's proposal as com-
policy? It appears that it would. Perhaps most impor-
bining the "efficiency of the House post office and the
tant, where would the money to pay for the president's
compassion of the KGB." That was, of course, typical
plan-an estimated $35 billion a year-come from?
campaign hyperbole. But it is understandable, on
Bush hasn't answered that one adequately yet.
reading Clinton's campaign materials on the subject,
But the plan has several manifest virtues. One is that
why the image of a gargantuan, heartless government
it builds on the strengths of the existing health-care
agency might spring to mind.
system which, for all its flaws, provides access to quali-
The first item of Clinton's plan is a national "health
ty care for the overwhelming majority of people. An-
standards board" that would "establish an annual
other is that it preserves choice, a critical considera-
health budget for the nation to limit both public and
tion in health care to the American people.
private expenditures." Even if Americans were not so
But probably the greatest virtue of the Bush plan is
wedded to freedom of choice in health care, this would
that it recognizes, implicitly, that providing access for
be odd and objectionable.
the uninsured is the responsibility of society as a
Would we truly limit the ability of an individual to
whole, through the tax system, and not just of busi-
spend his own money on medical care, or the right of
ness. Indeed, one ultimate goal of health-care reform
an individual medical practitioner to sell her services
in America ought to be to break the nexus between a
because it might break the national health-care budget?
person's job and his health insurance.
That would be both foolish and wrong.
Bush's cost-control proposals are less specific and
So also is rhetoric like this from the Clinton plan:
less promising than his access proposals. Medical mal-
"Discourage drug companies from spending more on
practice reform would be an important contribution,
marketing than on research and development-be-
although it is not clear precisely how the president
cause saving lives must come before making money."
would do it. He also proposes to reduce administrative
There is absolutely no reason to think that either of
costs of the health-care system by 25 percent by re-
the choices posed there-between research and mar-
ducing paperwork and streamlining various pro-
keting, between saving lives and making money-is
cedures. And he would encourage "coordinated care"
anything but false.
to make maximum use of available resources.
But the biggest flaw in the Clinton plan is in the way
Unfortunately, neither Bush nor Clinton proposes
it would extend coverage to the uninsured, whose
deploying the single most effective cost-control device
numbers it puts at 60 million-20 million more than
ever discovered: the cost-conscious consumer.
the highest estimates most commonly cited.
Largely because of the growth of third-party payers
Clinton favors a form of "play or pay," a mandate
and the metamorphosis of health insurance from a
to businesses to either provide a prescribed health
protection against unexpected, catastrophic costs into
benefits package to their workers or pay a tax to pro-
a guarantee of payment for even routine medical at-
vide them coverage in a public insurance program.
tention, insured people have become increasingly insu-
In practice, this would lead to one of two results:
lated from the financial consequences of their own
massive failures of small businesses with narrow profit
decisions on health and medical treatment.
margins (90 percent of companies that do not offer
It may be that the time has come to move forward
insurance have fewer than 10 employees) or wholesale
by going back. The government can never guarantee
dumping of workers into the public plan by employers
everyone as much health care as they can wish for, it
who would just as soon be relieved of the bother. Of
could protect everyone from financial ruin because of
all the possible solutions to the problem of the unin-
catastrophic illness. It may be worth considering
sured, "play or pay" is the least desirable.
whether, in health care, less can be more.
9/6/92
CHICAGO TRIBUNE
September 8, 1992
To the Editor:
Several good points were made by the Tribune in its 9/6/92 editorial
analysis of the two positions taken by George Bush and Bill Clinton
regarding health care reform. However the closing conclusion was
defective in one critical oversight.
The Tribune endorsed the concept of controlling costs by reducing
insurance coverage for health/medical treatment other than those
unexpected, catastrophic costs. By casting more of the costs for
minor and routine medical attention on the consumer, you instill a
state of cost-consciousness that is viewed as unnecessary under the
existing system. Decisions regarding health care would become more
discriminating in light of the immediate personal financial consequences.
But what this fails to take into consideration are:
1) Health maintenance(wellness)/disease prevention,
early detection and treatment costs vs.
delayed treatment, advanced malady costs
[both in terms of direct dollars and indirect dollars
(productivity) and in terms of the quality of life
for individuals]
2) The financial forecasting (budgeting) hardships
placed on consumers pressed into playing "health
care roulette".
A more efficient solution would be to direct incentives toward worksite
health promotion programs. (Worksite wellness is arguably the most
effective method of implementing health promotion.) Tax
credits
for companies implementing health promotion programs as well as
the personal tax credits for health care would save business from
the stifling burden of providing health care for all and instead keep
that responsibility with society.
A plan involving cooperation between the four principle "players"
related to workforce health maintenance and health care would further
reduce health care demand and costs while advancing productivity and
quality of life. Business, employees, insurance, and wellness vendors
have a common interest in resolving the health care crisis. Shared
incentives and accountability measures can lead to a profitable arrange-
ment for each element involved.
What follows is a model for such a plan. Please consider the concept,
not necessarily the numbers utilized for the sake of example.
"Cooperative workforce healthcare reform" requires the involvement and
shared commitment of 4 "players"
Player #1 -- the corporation/company/business
Player #2 -- the employee(s)
Player #3 -- the insurance company
Player #4 -- the wellness vendor (fitness administrators/
nutritionists/health screening services/
healthy lifestyle behaviorists/etc.)
It could work this way:
#1 (The Corporation) -- contributes 66% of the wellness/
preventive costs.
(support for employee involvement
is also demonstrated through top-
level management participation and
the corporate provision of sufficient
access & opportunity to wellness/
preventive services.)
#2 (The Employee) --
Contributes 34% of their wellness/
preventive program costs.
Certain criteria (e.g. attendance record,
periodic screenings/evaluations,
adherence to health recommendations/
programs, etc.) must be met to receive
full corporate health care benefits.
Only limited adherence to criteria
puts the employee on a 6 month
probation. During this time they
would have to contribute 50% of their
wellness/preventive program costs.
Failure to adhere to pre-set conditions
forfeits their corporate health care
benefits for 6 months. They may re-apply
for the benefits after the 6 month sus-
pension. Reinstatement would be
probationary status for another 6 months
including the 50% apportionment rate.
Adherence qualifies employee for
continued benefits at minimal cost.
#3 (The Insurance
Company) --
Discounts health/medical premiums to
participating corporation by 33% of its
wellness/preventive investments. Premiums
would be further adjusted as warranted by
claims (abate or raise them within pre-set
allowable variation limitations - perhaps
± 10% annually)
*
or increases their deductibles and/or their share of the premiums
#4 (The Wellness Vendor) --
33% of all proceeds from a
corporate contract shall be
placed in an annually revolving
escrow. If claims increase for
that company in a given year
when compared with either
1) the average amount for annual
claims over the past 3 years
(adjusted for inflationary rate
increases or other policy changes
affecting comparisons) or
2) a business profile case standard,
the difference shall be forfeited
from the escrow( up to 33% of
the wellness vendor's potential
income) to the insurance company
involved.
-
Naturally computer processed data would serve to help manage
accountability and adjustment aspects.
-
Each "player" has a vested interest in seeing the others succeed.
-
The corporation and employee each have a net investment of 1/3 the
cost of any wellness/preventive program(s). Both stand to receive
measurable and intangible benefits.
-
The insurance company has what amounts to a "guaranteed"
investment-commitment of 1/3 the cost of any wellness/preventive
program( (s). It also has a starting point for rewarding healthy
lifestyles and reducing health care costs and demand.
-
The wellness vendor(s) have an increased market opportunity,
combined with a strong incentive for delivering a quality
product/service.
-
Many other industries and establishments stand to contribute
and directly profit from the wake of a "cooperative workforce
health care reform". Software, medical and fitness equipment,
nutrition, life insurance, education, commercial real estate, the
federal government to name but a few.
This is not meant to be the singular, definitive solution to the problem,
but rather a format for one change in the way health care is done.
Education, liability reform, more efficient administrative methods, tax
incentives for worksite wellness programs, and a host of other innovative
and overdue revisions can contribute in a big way to the resuscitation
of our failing health care system.
Bruce Radcliffe
209 S. Weller Lane
Mt. Prospect, IL 60056
(WORK PH.) (708) 297-9753
July, 1992
Dear Leader:
I would greatly appreciate your comments and ideas concerning "Health Care A New Beginning.' Please indicate
them below and return them to me in the enclosed, postpaid envelope. Thank you!
1. I support making wellness and prevention a major national priority, through general education, physician training,
and greatly increased funding for programs and research.
Yes
No
Undecided
Comments
2. I support the appointment of a multipartisan National Health Care Coalition, including representatives of the medical
community and health care industry, small and big business, labor, education, the insurance industry, the legal com-
munity, economists, religious organizations, and the AARP. (Its job would be to make recommendations and help supervise
the reorientation and reform of our health care system.)
Yes
No
Undecided
Comments
3. Additional comments
Your Name
Address
City/State/Zip
CENTER FOR HEALTH
833 W. Lincoln Highway
EXCELLENCE
Schererville. IN 46375
HEALTH CARE
A NEW
BEGINNING
An emergency initiative for
reforming America's
failing health care system,
--
and for reorienting it toward
wellness and prevention.
Jonathan R. Javors, D.O.
Medical Director
Centers for Health Excellence
Schererville, Indiana
A PERSONAL NOTE
As an orthopaedic surgeon practicing in Northwest Indiana, I
take satisfaction in my work, but there is something about it that
disturbs me. Over the years, I have examined a seemingly endless
stream of people with ailments that never should have happened
in the first place. Of course, accidents cannot always be prevented
- but simple precautions, effective exercise, sound nutrition, early
medical consultation, and common sense can prevent many
problems, or keep minor ailments from becoming painful,
chronic, costly catastrophes.
It occurred to me, as it has to others, that our priorities are
upside down. Our system is geared toward restoring health at the
point when it is most costly and painful to do so. Health care
costs are draining our economy, sapping our productivity,
crippling our ability to compete in international markets, and
leaving many Americans without access to physicians and medical
services.
Our only hope to alter this disastrous course is to turn the
system rightside up. Our emphasis should be to maintain health in
the first place. In addition, we must decisively contend with the
greed, corruption, and bureaucratic malaise that afflicts the U.S.
health care system.
I have a vested interest in wellness, both personally and
professionally. I would rather earn my living by helping people
stay healthy than by channeling a flood of needlessly ill or
injured patients into very expensive hospital beds.
The following thoughts and proposals are dedicated to
my two young daughters, as well as to all of our children, and
to the millions of people whose lives and prosperity are
threatened by our hemorrhaging health care system. I dare not
hope that you, the reader, will agree with each specific idea.
Nor do I claim to have the prescriptions that will cure every
aspect of this enormously complex disorder. My purpose is
simply to enlist your general support for urgent, bold, and
decisive action toward reorientation and reform.
J.R.J.
June, 1992
CONTENTS
PART I. A CALL TO ACTION
2
PART II. A NEW FOUNDATION
4
Wellness in Schools
5
Preventative Medicine for Children
7
Wellness and Prevention in the Workplace
7
Disease Risk Management
9
PART III. REFORMING THE HEALTH CARE SYSTEM
9
Improving Physician Training
10
Reforming Medical Liability.
11
Controlling Product Liability.
11
Changing Administrative Services
12
Coping with Corruption
12
Using the Health Care System Properly.
12
Decreasing In-Hospital Patient Costs
13
Time to Act
13
PART IV. ACTIONS TO TAKE
14
APPENDIX A. ESTIMATED POTENTIAL SAVINGS IN PRESENT
HEALTH CARE SYSTEM
16
APPENDIX B. PRIMARY & SECONDARY PREVENTION
MEASURES
17
APPENDIX C. EXAMPLES OF SUCCESSFUL WELLNESS
MEASURES
18
APPENDEX D. DOCUMENTED BENEFITS FOR ORGANIZATIONS
OF WELLNESS AND FITNESS PROGRAMS
19
PART I. A CALL TO ACTION
America is built on values and principles. We are a nation
built on knowing right from wrong and simple common
sense. In 1776, our founding fathers went to war because
of injustices forced on them by an unfeeling tyrant across
the seas. Americans knew what had to be done and did it.
In 1861, we became convulsed in a terrible civil war to
preserve our union from the evils of slavery that threatened
to tear it apart. In 1941, fascism and despotism menaced
the world, challenging our dream of democracy and the
right to live as we choose. Again, Americans rose to the
challenge. As an aftermath, our values and principles were
Our goal must be to make the
jeopardized by an ideological force that did not have any
United States of America the
common sense to it. Once more, we paid the price and
bealthiest country in the world
triumphed.
by the year 2000. Anything less
Now "the trumpets summon us again." The
is a failure of our leadership to
wealthiest, most powerful nation in the history of this planet
show concern for the American
people and for future
ranks 22nd in infant survival. Compare our infant mortality
generations.
rate of 9.8 per 1,000 live births with 4.6 for Japan and 6.6
for Singapore. Our average life span is lower than seven
other nations. Americans by the millions are dying
prematurely because of improper dietary and fitness habits.
2
There is no organized prevention strategy. Thirteen percent
of our people do not have adequate health care insurance
and access to decent medical care. Among the world's
developed nations, only the United States and South Africa
lack health care access for everyone.
All this and more adds up to a great wrong. In fact, it
is a national crisis which quite literally has life and death
implications for millions of people. Considering our wealth
and technology, America's health care system and strategy
for wellness and prevention, or lack thereof, is a national
disgrace.
In 1963, President Kennedy challenged our country
to put men on the moon by the end of the decade.
Americans love a challenge, SO this charge was met head-on
and it was accomplished. Why can't the same wholehearted
national commitment be made for health care? A concerted
effort by the medical community, business, industry,
education, labor, and the government can make the United
States of America the healthiest country in the world for the
21st century and beyond. Anything less than that would be
an affront to our values and principles.
Health is defined as being free from disease and
disorder. Health care must logically aim at two goals: (1.) the
maintenance of health and (2.) the restoration of health.
With regard to the latter, the health care delivery system
in the United States is the world's best. It is unlikely that many
would disagree with this. Our technology is unparalleled. New
equipment, procedures, medications, and treatment protocols
are providing cures that only a short while ago would not have
been possible. Vast strides are being made in many clinical
situations.
Unfortunately, however, the cost of this system is
draining our resources and economic vitality. For example,
U.S. businesses spend an estimated 50% of their pretax profits
on health care insurance premiums. This severely handicaps
To ignore the failures of our
us in the global marketplace.
health care system is to
violate the United States
At the same time, with regard to the maintenance of
Constitution both in letter
health, our health care delivery system has failed utterly.
and in spirit.
Money is relatively non-existent for disease risk management
and prevention. Research is lacking in these areas. Direction
from the medical community is sorely needed. Our
government has abdicated its constitutional responsibility. One
of the reasons for establishing the Constitution of the United
States was "to promote the general welfare." What is more
3
important to the general welfare than health care?
Surely one of our most crucial national goals must be to
provide the means of achieving and maintaining optimal
health for all of our people. Benjamin Franklin's aphorism,
"An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure," was never
as pertinent as in our health care delivery system. We must
begin to focus on that ounce of prevention, because the pound
of cure has been severely burdening businesses and
individuals.
Specifically, three health care issues must be
immediately addressed:
Cost
Accessibility
Quality
These three are interrelated. Cutting costs would create
savings that could be used to guarantee accessibility to all of
our people. These savings could also be used to increase
prevention and wellness research and begin programs in
these areas. This, in turn, would decrease the traffic in
our health care delivery system, freeing resources for
finding ways to combat disease and increase the quality
and quantity of life.
Many of the following proposals could be imple-
mented quickly and are just plain common sense. Others
are thought-starters that purport to stimulate action from
the medical community, business, industry, education,
labor, and the government. Efforts to maintain and restore
health deserve the same priority as the other large issues
of freedom, opportunity, prosperity, and peace. Those
efforts must not be diverted or slowed by the petty
vicissitudes of partisan politics. The stakes are monumental
"Wellness" requires proper
for millions of people. Our hope is to sound an urgent
fitness, nutrition, and stress
"call to arms" that rings loud and true for everyone.
control. "Prevention" demands
testing and treatment that
attack illnesses BEFORE they
occur.
PART II. A NEW FOUNDATION
When a house is crumbling, it does little good to
4
replace bricks and mortar in a haphazard manner. It is
worthless to buy new drapes or to paint the walls. The
whole foundation must be strengthened or replaced. Only
by doing this can the house be expected to withstand the
onslaught of nature and time.
Similarly, our present health care system is
crumbling as our nation continues to grow and as baby-
boomers approach retirement age. Inevitably, it will
collapse from overuse. It cannot be fixed by increasing
taxes, building more hospitals, or graduating more
physicians. What we need is a new foundation built out of
the bricks and mortar of wellness and prevention.
Individuals must be empowered to change their
lifestyles to include proper fitness, nutrition, and stress
control. Specific diagnostic tests and treatments must be
implemented to decrease the chances of developing
diseases. By keeping people healthier longer, we decrease
the use of the health care system, make our nation more
productive, and promote the general welfare.
It only makes common sense to head off a problem
before we have to deal with it. Why doesn't our health
care system adopt this wellness strategy? Why are so
many Americans unhealthy? Louis Sullivan, M.D.,
Secretary of Health and Human Services, has stated that
40 to 70 percent of all premature deaths can be avoided
by appropriate wellness and prevention programs. With
the exception of post-traumatic, accidental deaths, all
premature deaths can either be avoided or delayed,
increasing not only the quantity, but (more importantly)
the quality of life. The medical community, business, and
government must join forces to educate and empower
people to take more responsibility for their health.
Specific, positive goals must be set and they must
be relentlessly pursued. Educational programs and
behavior modification steps must be taken now. Because
Spending only 3 percent of our
this will not be a "Quick Fix" proposition, some short-
health dollar on wellness and
sighted individuals may oppose it. However, the next
prevention is a form of
generations, including baby-boomers, our children, and
administrative malpractice.
grandchildren, will see the benefits from focusing our
resources into wellness and prevention. This is the best
and only solution to the looming health care disaster that
menaces our country.
Some are touting the great strides that have been
made in wellness and prevention during the past few
5
years. After all, Americans spent an estimated $24 billion
on prevention programs in 1991. But this figure
becomes far less impressive when you consider that we
spent about $800 billion on health care during the same
12-month period. Wellness and prevention represent
barely 3 percent of the total. That is not a point of pride.
It is a national embarrassment.
When do we start? Where do we start? How can
wellness and prevention programs be implemented?
Although much more research is needed, much research
has already been done. We can start by implementing
programs that build on what we have learned. General
George S. Patton revealed one of his secrets for
accomplishing objectives: "A good plan executed now is
better than a perfect plan executed next week." The time
to start is now and the place to start is with our children.
Wellness in Schools
Children are the most important responsibility in any
parent's life and their health is our most important
consideration. They also represent our future. Training
them to be as healthy as possible will have the most far-
reaching impact on our national well-being.
Why is Illinois the only state that requires daily
physical education classes? (And Illinois may feel
compelled to change this law due to budgetary
constraints!) Why has so little been done about the fact
that 20 percent of our children are considered obese and
that only 1 in 28 of these obese children is expected to
regain normal weight as an adult? The time has come for
an overhaul of our primary and secondary school
curriculum. Health education must rank with reading,
writing, and mathematics as a principal goal of learning.
Daily fitness classes must be made mandatory in
If children's health is our most
all U.S. schools. These must include physical activities
important concern, why
where students compete both in teams and as individuals.
shouldn't health education be
Team spirit and camaraderie helps make fitness fun, and
a principal goal of learning?
individual events prepare children for the times when
there is less opportunity to engage in team sports.
Daily fitness activities will not be enough to change
the behavior patterns of our children. They must be made
to understand the hows and whys of good health and
fitness. Mandatory talks on proper fitness and nutrition
6
every week will help motivate them and reinforce that
motivation.
Health care is approaching 20 percent of our gross
national product. It is distressing that the vast majority of
Americans know nothing about or are intimidated by a
category that constitutes one-fifth of our total output. That
is why secondary schools must add consumer education
classes dealing with health care, behavior outcomes, and
wise shopping for health care.
Our schools must also practice what they must
preach in the area of nutrition. Healthy school menus,
taking regional tastes and customs into account, must be
instituted to reinforce this behavior modification. Greasy
hamburgers, hot dogs, french fries, and pizza do not
constitute a very nutritious diet. Children may survive this
diet without detrimental effects. However, eating habits
are hard to break and a fast-food diet can lead to pre-
mature and devastating problems in later life. Research
tends to support the old saw, "you are what you eat."
Preventative Medicine for Children
Our children are certainly our most precious resource.
We must start investing more heavily in them. Free and
full health care must be made available to expectant
mothers at the first moment they become aware of
pregnancy. This includes prenatal care, care during
delivery and for a period of up to 6 weeks after delivery
or until all conditions as a result of pregnancy have
returned to normal. This free health care would be given
to all children until the age of 18, or while continuing
education. It has been shown that for every dollar spent
on prenatal prevention programs, $3 were saved on
postnatal health-related problems. Not a bad return on
investment!
According to a recent study,
for every dollar spent by
The simple fact is that healthy children with good
companies on wellness and
wellness habits tend to grow up to be healthy adults. They
prevention programs, $2.66
will use the health care system less frequently, and make
are saved in health care
better choices when they have to use it.
costs.
Wellness & Prevention in the Workplace
The time has also come for employers to be totally
committed to the health and fitness of their employees.
Many companies are very strict about keeping their
7
machinery well oiled and tuned. But they seem to feel that
if their workers are adequately covered by health insurance,
there is nothing more to do.
This is proving to be a very costly attitude. Health
coverage in itself is not a small investment - - an estimated
$15.9 billion per year is being paid by companies for
workers' compensation. More than twice that amount, an
estimated $37.1 billion, is squandered through lost time
due to work-related injuries and diseases. And health care
premiums and medical bills for private businesses
continue to soar. As of 1990, they reached approximately
$186.2 billion! This is a terrible drain on individual
companies and certainly handicaps our nation's
competitive position in the international market.
Another reason why other countries are gaining a
quality edge over the United States is represented by this
question: "How much productivity has been lost to shoddy
workmanship caused by alcoholism, drug abuse, and
absenteeism due to family-related problems?" Estimates
indicate that this figure is now beyond $135 billion.
In fact, workers compensation losses related to
substance abuse problems have increased by 400 percent
since 1970. For a typical company of 1,000 employees,
costs now are estimated at almost $500,000 per year.
It is clear that there are enormous savings to be
gained through wellness and prevention programs. For
the sake of their workers, for their own sake, and for the
sake of our nation as a whole, businesses must treat their
employees as true resources and empower them to
remain healthy and fit.
Physical fitness leads to fiscal fitness. All companies
should establish physical fitness standards and provide
programs for their employees. Breaks during the day
Wellness programs lead to
could be specifically reserved for these activities. Lectures
health, happiness, and
could be made available for such topics as stress
productivity. They benefit
management, nutrition, fitness, medical self-help, and
individuals, families,
outcome research findings. The goals are to make
companies, and the country as
employees more fit, more health conscious, and more
a whole.
intelligent consumers of health care products and
services. Employers who pick up health care benefits for
their employees should make participation in exercise
programs and attendance at lectures mandatory.
8
Of course, the programs and talks will become very
attractive to employees. After all, they are the ones who
stand to improve their health and well-being. This
commitment to wellness can strengthen any company's
position in both recruitment and employee retention.
There is expected to be a significant shortage of skilled
workers in many fields by the year 2000. Wellness
benefits represent one way to ensure that companies have
a healthy and productive work force to compete in the
marketplace.
Another step toward employee health empower-
ment would be to incentivize certain wellness goals.
Initially, employees might be responsible for a portion of
their health insurance premium. As they reach their goals,
that portion would decrease or disappear.
Companies also would do well to implement
"family friendly" work and vacation arrangements. This
reduces stress, builds morale, and by all indications has a
positive influence on general happiness, productivity, and
health.
Disease Risk Management
Traditional medicine has been lax in helping people
control diseases. It has failed even more profoundly in
helping them delay the onset or avoid the symptoms of
ailments that they are at high risk of contracting. Health
care professionals must begin to practice and preach
disease risk management by providing people with the
knowledge to live longer, healthier, and symptom-free
lives.
The only area where our present system has made a
sustained effort to do this is in the area of cardiovascular
disease. People are more aware of cholesterol, obesity,
hypertension, and other parameters that cause deterior-
ation of their cardiovascular status. Cardiac rehabilitation
Every American is entitled to
programs have come a long way toward increasing
basic health care. This is not
awareness of what should be done after someone suffers
a privilege, but an
a heart attack. But what about respiratory disease,
inalienable right.
diabetes, strokes, chronic obesity, arthritis, cancer, and
ulcers to name a few? Educational and participatory
prevention programs are desperately needed in these
areas. Other programs should be set up to help people
who already have diseases lead fuller, more active lives.
9
PART III. REFORMING OUR HEALTH CARE
SYSTEM
The plain truth is that our present system is failing and
has to be changed. Federal and state governments have
failed to control health care costs and corruption. Until
the Medicare/Medicaid Acts of 1965, U.S. health care
costs rose with inflation at the same approximate rate as
those of other services. As soon as the government
bureaucracy became involved, there was a divergence.
Health care costs began to zoom out of control.
All people in the United States must have basic
health care. Along with education and criminal legal
defense, this is an inalienable right. How do we ensure
this? What form will the new system take? Where will the
money come from? As stated earlier, wellness and
prevention programs with potentially enormous savings
must be the foundation. Following are some ways to save
more money and increase accessibility by reforming our
present system.
Improving Physician Training
Today's medical schools have been sadly ineffective in
communicating the great social and fiscal ramifications of
health care. Physicians must be made thoroughly aware of
these issues. They are the ones who make the decisions
on which treatments are to be rendered, what tests are to
be ordered, how long hospitalization is to be, and how
money is to be spent. Until these areas are stressed in
medical school, physicians as a group will continue to
over-utilize.
All physicians must be
thoroughly schooled in
More emphasis must be placed in the arts of
wellness and prevention.
recording patient history, performing physical
They should also be given
examinations, and diagnosis. Testing should be ordered
the opportunity to make
to confirm diagnoses, not to "rule out." Physicians must
these disciplines their
become aware of how much tests costs and the ethics and
clinical specializations.
effectiveness of each particular test. A recent study
indicates that over-testing costs patients and taxpayers
$50 billion dollars per year. This must stop! A wise
physician once remarked that "to order tests and have the
10
results return as normal is an admission to lack of
clinical acumen." This is the kind of thinking that must be
stressed in medical school.
Undoubtedly, in the future, computers will be used
to help physicians not only make diagnoses, but also to
recommend treatment plans. When this occurs, it will be
even more important for physicians to have good history
taking and physical exam skills. They will be the ones
entering the data. In the future, a physician's clinical skills
should again become more important than an MRI or CT
scan.
Another fundamental change in medical school
curricula must be the addition of courses in wellness and
prevention. Physicians are role models for their patients.
They must lead the way to healthier and safer lifestyles. To
do this, they themselves need knowledge. In fact, wellness
and prevention must be stressed in medical school to the
point of becoming a clinical specialization. This would
not only increase the availability of wellness expertise to
people in general, but also lead to increased research.
Reforming Medical Liability
Human nature does not change. All species, including
humans, are equipped with primordial survival and self-
defense mechanisms. When threatened with harm, our
instincts are to do whatever is necessary to protect
ourselves. It is not just a coincidence that diagnostic
testing multiplied as the incidence of malpractice suits and
claims arose. This is money that could be used to increase
access to health care for people who desperately need it,
or to expand programs in wellness and prevention.
Arbitration should be frequently employed in medical
malpractice cases to improve the possibility that only true
negligence and not actions with less than satisfactory
results will come to litigation.
Arbitration boards could
reduce the number of frivolous
Until science can quantify how much pain and
malpractice suits that frighten
suffering an individual has undergone, there should be a
physicians into ordering
cap legislated on these awards. Also, as provided for by
unnecessary diagnostic tests.
the United States Constitution, a jury must be made up of
the accused's peers. Unfortunately, the complexity of
medicine does not allow the untrained person to fully
understand the various aspects of medicine. That is why
medical review and quality assurance boards should be
established to initially oversee all malpractice claims.
11
These boards would also be responsible for making it
tougher for medical professionals to render less than
quality care.
Controlling Product Liability
Another cause of skyrocketing medical costs is the spate
of multimillion dollar product liability awards against the
manufacturers of medical supplies and pharmaceuticals.
For example, consider what has happened to the cost of
DPT shots that are administered to protect children from
diphtheria, pertussis, and tetanus. Recently, after a
multimillion dollar award against the company that
produces it, the shot's cost multiplied. Did people think
that the company was going to pick up the cost of that
judgment? Of course not. There are wages to pay,
operating costs, and research and development budgets.
So they pass the costs to the consumer, and health care
costs explode. Again, national legislation mandating
reasonable caps and other tort reform measures is
absolutely necessary.
Changing Administrative Services
How often have people joked about the endless red tape
associated with government bureaucracy? We have come
to accept it as a fact of life, as expected as the rising and
setting of the sun. And, as with the sun, most people feel
that there is nothing that can be done about it.
We can and must change it. Why are there 1,200
different insurance forms? Why is 24¢ of every health care
dollar spent on administrative red tape? Standardization
to a few universally used forms could cut costs
tremendously and this is absolutely do-able. Another cost-
cutting measure would be to use electronic filing. It has
been estimated that these two steps could pare $50 billion
to $100 billion from U.S. health care costs.
More than half the time that
patients spend in hospitals
might be better spent at
home.
Coping with Corruption
How can the people of our relatively educated, sophisticat-
ed, democratic country tolerate the degree of corruption
that we do? With health care the stakes are higher than in
other fields. When corruption invades our health care
system, lives are lost. Plus, health care fraud, according to
recent reports, is costing us $50 billion to $80 billion
12
each year. This must stop. Taxpayers must petition
national, state, and local governments to increase
investigations and punitive measures against these crimes.
Using the Health Care System Properly
A recent study suggests that 53 percent of the time spent by
patients in hospitals is medically unnecessary. Also, up to
15 percent of all office visits to physicians is unnecessary.
Identifying this waste and then drastically diminishing it
would go a long way toward decreasing the cost of health
care.
A massive public awareness campaign could be
launched to alert both physicians and patients to these
critical facts. Families must be educated about the
physical, psychological, and financial advantages of
allowing their loved ones to recover at home. Physicians
should be made aware of the ethical importance of
reserving hospital beds and doctors' examining tables for
people who really need them.
Decreasing In-Hospital Patient Costs
A large percentage of in-hospital problems could be
treated in step-down units at far less cost. These would be
operated by personnel more trained for monitoring
patients' care than for treating medical problems. Many
people are admitted for observation purposes, for
delivery of medications, or for testing procedures. They
do not need the high degree of professional care that
nurses provide. Nurses would be happy to treat patients
who really need their help rather than to monitor people
and deal with the mountains of paperwork that is involved
in such situations.
These step-down units would ensure that patients
who truly need the degree of care that only a hospital can
provide would be hospitalized at a fraction of the former
We must not wait for others to
take action. Ultimately,
cost. Regarding hospitals, there could be four main
responsibility for health lies
clinical tiers, each with its own administrative
with each individual.
procedures, level of treatment, and level of cost:
1. Intensive — patients who have severe, life-threatening
clinical conditions and require services that are
essentially similar to intensive care as provided today.
2. Intermediate - - those who need extensive moni-
toring of vital signs along with extensive nursing care.
13
3. Observatory - those who have had elective surgery,
those admitted for testing procedures, or those
admitted for control of non-life-threatening, specific
illnesses. This care would consist of routine vital
signs, routine IV, pain control, and medications.
4. Maintenance - - those who require care similar to
that rendered in long-term nursing facilities. One
way to decrease the number of people treated in this
high-cost fashion is to encourage children to take
care of their parents. This could be accomplished
through a multifaceted program that includes
education, ancillary services, and tax credits for
those who care for elderly relatives. Employers
should also be encouraged to make benefits
available to employees with elderly parents at home.
Time to Act
The time to act is now! Can we afford to wait? The future
of our health and that of our children is in jeopardy.
Waiting for the government to take action is not a good
strategy. Lobbyists and special interest groups may
influence the form that health care takes, so it would not
be in the best interests of the American people as a whole.
Each individual must take the initiative, starting with his
or her own health.
John F. Kennedy sounded the alarm three decades
ago. "We can no longer be a nation of spectators (when it
comes to our health care). We must all become
participants."
A suggestion for jump-starting the reform of our
A multipartisan National
health care system would be for the President to call
Health Care Coalition would
together a National Health Care Coalition. This body must
reflect public opinion and
be comprised of representatives from the medical
also guide it. The result would
community and health care industry, small and big
be a health care system that is
business, labor, education, the insurance industry, the
both equitable and effective.
legal community, economists, religious organizations, and
the AARP. Its responsibility would be to oversee and
expedite the progress of health care reform. It would be
empowered to set up task forces to find ways to
implement wellness and prevention, insurance reforms,
14
accessibility, corruption control, standardization of forms,
and other ethical and cost-saving imperatives. Members
of this NHCC would be prohibited from meeting
individually with special interest groups or lobbyists. This
would only be allowed to occur with the body as a whole.
Recommendations of the National Health Care
Coalition should have an overwhelming moral force
behind them. It should become very difficult for
politicians to oppose the legislation and initiatives that the
NHCC proposes. Hopefully, this would result in a fair
health system based upon a foundation that is able to
withstand the onslaught of nature and time.
PART IV. ACTIONS TO TAKE
Procrastination is the doldrums of accomplishment. As
Shakespeare might have said, let not this enterprise "of
great pitch and moment turn awry and lose the name of
action." This truly is an emergency. Every segment of
society must begin to act now.
Government policy makers. Lay aside the differences
of party politics. Rise above the pampering of special
interest groups, and the peddling of influence. Initiate the
multipartisan National Health Care Coalition. Act on its
recommendations for establishing a wellness imperative,
cutting costs, fighting corruption, and limiting
administrative waste.
Business leaders. Set up study groups to determine how
wellness and prevention can cut costs and make your
companies more competitive. Involve your executive staff,
mid-management, and, most importantly, your work force
in this issue. If wellness and prevention appear to be
profitable, implement these programs at once. Also
establish family-friendly policies to improve employee
Let's commit our energies,
morale and ultimately increase productivity.
ideas, voices, and votes to
Health care professionals. Change from being strictly
create a health care system that
healers to address diseases before they happen. Teach
makes sense for the American
people.
physicians more effective ways to prevent diseases.
Encourage them to represent the principle of wellness by
the way they live. Help people find a way to achieve their
optimum health. Police yourselves to prevent abuse,
incompetence, and fraud.
Individuals. Let's take charge of our health! Seek out the
15
best exercise and nutritional strategies and act on them
immediately. Write letters to legislators, petition physicians,
and talk to friends about wellness, prevention, administra-
tive reform, and all the other crucial health care issues.
Ours is a democratic society. We make our own choices.
We cannot expect the government to decree our bodies
toward optimum health.
APPENDIX A
ESTIMATED POTENTIAL SAVINGS
IN PRESENT HEALTH CARE SYSTEM
Listed below are areas in the present health care system
where significant savings could be made. These savings
could be applied to research and development for
wellness and prevention programs, which in turn could
generate even greater savings. These funds could also be
used to ensure adequate health care for all Americans.
Here are estimates from various recent studies:
1. Reducing overtesting through greater physician
awareness:
$50 billion
2. Changing tort laws to decrease use of defensive
medicine:
16
$21 billion
3. Cutting unnecessary administrative expenditures:
$30-120 billion
4. Ending corruption:
$50-80 billion
5. Ending overuse of services: $183 billion
Total estimated savings out of approximately
$800 billion: $334-454 billion
Sources: 1. Robert H. Brook, Rand Corporation. 2. The
President's Comprehensive Health Reform Program,
1992. 3. The President's Comprehensive Health Reform
Program, 1992. and C. Everett Koop, 1992. 4. U.S. News
& World Report, February 24, 1992. 5. Extrapolated from
Analysis of Medically Unnecessary Health Care
Consumption by Axene, Doyle, and Feren, 1991.
APPENDIX B
PRIMARY AND SECONDARY PREVENTION MEASURES
Primary prevention programs aim at preventing the
occurrence of diseases or injuries before they develop. For
example, immunization has proven effective against such
diseases as smallpox and polio - and chemoprophylaxis,
sanitation, and hygiene have limited the spread of other
scourges such as typhoid fever and bubonic plague.
A $1 investment in Measles-Mumps-Rubella (MMR)
vaccine can save $14 in medical care costs.
Also, for every one percent increase in the use of
seat belts, more than 160 lives are saved each year. In
1990, 48 percent of Americans in cars were using seat
belts. Increasing this total to just 70 percent would save
up to 3,800 lives and prevent 100,000 injuries annually.
This would save $2.5 billion for our economy.
Secondary prevention programs aim at early
detection and treatment of risk factors or pre-clinical
diseases. For example, hypertension screenings identify
apparently healthy individuals who are potentially at high
risk of developing strokes, heart disease, and other
conditions because of high blood pressure.
17
Here are some other examples of secondary
prevention measures:
* Routine physical exams for children under 17.
* Eye exams for children 3-16.
* Breast exams for women 17 and older.
* Pap smears for women 17 and older.
* Glaucoma tests for everyone 40 and older.
* Electrocardiograms for everyone 40 and older.
* Mammographies for women 45-65.
* Colon and rectal cancer screening for everyone
50 and older.
Sources: Primary prevention statistics taken from The
President's Comprehensive Health Reform Program,
1992. Secondary prevention measures from American
Journal of Preventive Medicine, "Paying for Prevention
Care: Moving the Debate Forward" by Davis, Bialek,
Smith, Parkinson, and Vellozzi.
APPENDIX C
EXAMPLES OF SUCCESSFUL WELLNESS MEASURES
An eight-year study by Brigham and Williams Hospital
in Boston of more than 87,000 women aged 34-59 shows
that women who exercise vigorously (break into a sweat)
at least once a week had one-third the risk of adult
diabetes compared to sedentary women.
A fourteen-year study by the University of California at
Berkeley of 6,000 men aged 39-68 found that physical
activity cut the risk of adult diabetes on a sliding scale. For
every 500 calories burned during exercise each week (as
during a daily one-mile walk), the risk of diabetes
dropped by 6 percent. Men who worked off 2,000 calories
a week had 24 percent less risk than inactive men.
A study of 17,000 Harvard alumni aged 30-79 found
that males who burn 1,000 calories a week in physical
activity had about 50 percent less risk of colon cancer
than inactive men.
18
An Arthritis Foundation study found that overweight,
middle-aged, and older women could cut the risk of
osteoarthritis of the knee by one half by losing 11 pounds
over ten years.
Source: U.S. News & World Report, May 4, 1992.
APPENDIX D
DOCUMENTED BENEFITS FOR ORGANIZATIONS OF
WELLNESS AND FITNESS PROGRAMS
Wellness works! The following results were compiled from
published studies and articles by Dr. Charles J. Hobson,
Division of Business and Economics, Indiana University
Northwest.
1. REDUCED HEALTH CARE AND DISABILITY COSTS
a. Health Research Institute
* Companies with fitness programs average 27
percent lower health care costs than those without.
b. Control Data Corporation
* Nonfit employees had 14 percent higher health care
claims, 30 percent longer hospital stays, and 41
percent more major medical claims.
* Overweight employees had 11 percent higher
19
health care claims, 45 percent longer hospital stays,
and 48 percent more major medical claims.
* Smokers had 18 percent higher health care claims,
25 percent longer hospital stays, and 29 percent
more major medical claims.
* Hypertensive employees had 11 percent higher
health care claims, 25 percent longer hospital stays,
and 68 percent more major medical claims.
C. Johnson and Johnson
* Wellness program participants averaged 40 percent
lower hospitalization cost than nonparticipants.
* Smoking cessation program saves $1,000.00 per
participant.
d. Tenneco
* Fit male employees average $442.00 less in annual
health care costs.
* Fit female employees average $896.00 less in
annual health care costs.
e. Prudential Insurance
* Fit employees averaged 45.7 percent lower
major medical costs.
* Fit employees averaged 20.1 percent lower
disability costs.
* Total program savings averaged $353.38 per
employee, compared to an average program
cost per employee of $120.60.
f. Kimberly Clark
* Participants in a weight control program
averaged $160.00 less in annual disability
premiums.
g. U.S.S.R. Industrial Study
* Nonfit workers visit doctors 4 times more
frequently than fit ones.
20
h. Berol Corporation
* Introduction of fitness program resulted in a
reduction in annual medical insurance
premiums of $125,000.00.
i. King Broadcasting
* Introduction of fitness program resulted in a
reduction in annual medical insurance
premiums of $284,000.00.
j. Surgeon General
* 40-70 percent of all illnesses can be prevented
and are related to lifestyle factors.
k. National Institute of Health
* Fitness/wellness programs result in an average
annual savings of $446,000.00 per 1,000
employees.
2. REDUCED ABSENTEEISM
a. Mesa Petroleum
* Fit employees had 38 percent lower
absenteeism rate.
b. Inter North
* Fit employees averaged 1 day of absenteeism
per year; nonfit, 6.
C. Johnson and Johnson
* Wellness program participants had 18
percent lower absenteeism rate.
d. Canada Life Assurance Co.
* Fit employees had 22 percent lower
absenteeism rate.
e. Metropolitan Life
* Fit employees averaged 4.8 percent days of
absenteeism per year; nonfit, 6.2.
f. Dallas School System
* Fit employees averaged 5.3 days of
absenteeism per year; nonfit, 8.5.
* Total program savings were $452,000.00 per
21
year.
g. Battelle Memorial Insititute
* Fit employees averaged 2.8 fewer days
absent.
* Total program savings were $150,000.00 per
year.
h. Goodyear
* Fit employees had 50 percent lower
absenteeism rate.
i. West German Study of Workers with Prior
Cardiovascular Problems
* Regular exercise resulted in 68.6 percent
lower absenteeism rate.
j. Canadian Post Office
* Fit employees averaged 2.48 days of
absenteeism; nonfit, 4.38.
k. Scherer Brothers Lumber
* Wellness program resulted in a decrease of annual
absenteeism rate from 2.7 percent to 0.3 percent.
3. FEWER PREMATURE DEATHS
a. Midwest Steel
* The prevention of premature death for two upper
level executives alone more than justified the total
annual cost of their managerial fitness program.
4. REDUCED JOB STRESS
a. NASA
* 50 percent of fitness participants show significant
reductions in stress and tension.
b. Canadian Post Office
* 78 percent of fitness participants show significant
reductions in stress and tension.
C. Xerox
* Reports a significant correlation between fitness
22
levels and lower stress and tension.
5. INCREASED WORK PRODUCTIVITY
a. Tenneco
* Reports a significant correlation between fitness
level and work productivity.
b. Canadian Post Office
* 81 percent of fitness participants show significant
improvement in work productivity.
C. NASA
* 50 percent of fitness participants show significant
improvement in work productivity.
d. Belgian Post Office
* Reports a significant correlation between fitness
level and both quality and quantity of work
performance
e. Study of 239 Middle-Aged Executives
* 60 percent of fitness participants show
significant improvement in work productivity.
6. INCREASED JOB SATISFACTION
a. Signature Corporation
* 60 percent of fitness participants show
significant improvement in job satisfaction.
b. NASA
* 49 percent of fitness participants show
significant improvement in job satisfaction.
C. Canadian Post Office
* 59 percent of fitness participants show
significant improvement in job satisfaction.
d. Study of 239 Middle-Aged Executives
* 40 percent of fitness participants show
significant improvement in job satisfaction.
7. REDUCED EMPLOYEE TURNOVER
a. Canada Life Assurance Co.
23
* Fit employees averaged an annual turnover
rate of 1.5 percent; nonfit, 15 percent.
* Total program savings were $510,000.00 per
year.
b. Tenneco
* Reports a significant relationship between
fitness level and turnover rate.
8. FEWER ACCIDENTS/INJURIES
a. Valmont Industries
* Wellness program resulted in a 59.6 percent
decrease in the injury rate over a 5-year period.
* Wellness program resulted in a 53 percent
reduction in the lost- workday accident
frequency over a 5-year period.
* Total program savings were $142,000.00
over 5 years.
b. U.S.S.R. Industrial Study
* Fit workers averaged 2-3 times fewer accidents.
9. MORE SUCCESSFUL RECRUITING
a. Boston Federal Reserve Bank
* Reports that wellness program is an excellent
recruiting tool.
b. Tenneco
* Reports that wellness program is an excellent
recruiting tool.
C. Xerox
* Reports that wellness program is an excellent
recruiting tool.
24
Printed on recycled paper.
Copyright: Centers for Health Excellence, 1992
JAB-01
New
September 14, 1992
Mr. James Baker
The White House
Washington DC
Dear Sir:
We believe that this nation has never been in greater peril than it is at this moment. We
have written the enclosed letter to express our fears and convictions, and sent it to major
newspapers around the country. Our prayers and blessings, along with those of millions of
other like-minded Americans, go daily with you and yours. May the wind be always at
your back, may the road rise up to meet your feet, and may God bless you with His
wisdom, His strength and the courage to stand against the tide which seeks to engulf us all.
We will prevail, if we faint not.
Sincerely,
Bob & Suzanne
Bob & Suzanne Hamrick
9970 Timberlake Drive East
Jacksonville FL 32257-6048
(904) 260-4119
September 14, 1992
Letters From Readers
The Florida Times-Union
P.O. Box 1949
Jacksonville FL 32231
The Republican party believes that the economy of this nation functions best when left as
much alone as possible. Any student of historical economics knows that the well-meant
tinkerings and adjustments which have been tried in the past have usually resulted in an
unforeseen worsening of unemployment, or inflation, or the balance of trade payments, or
budget deficits, or prices, or wages, or capital investment, or savings rates, or any of these
at once.
All wealth in this nation springs from business. Without profitable businesses, there will
be no money for social programs of any sort. Republicans understand this. But to our
discredit, we have not been as ready to provide needed social programs as we should have
been, and this has given the Democrats the opportunities they have needed to fan the
flames of special interest groups' desires, and to unite these special interests into a loose
coalition of voters large enough to allow that party to control the House of Represent-
atives, which controls how much we are all taxed and how those taxes are spent.
Those who hold it against the President for going back on his promise of no new taxes are
apparently ignorant of how the Democrats forced his hand by holding the annual budget
process of this entire nation hostage, including Social Security checks, until he met their
demands. George Bush did not go willingly or gently into that dark night. If you resent
the tax increase, at least place the blame where it belongs: on your elected Democratic
members of the House of Representatives. It has been well and truly said that nations get
the type of government they deserve. It has also been well and truly said that there is no
free lunch. Someone has to pay the bills. Republicans understand these truths, as well.
But President Bush has had the bad luck to preside over this nation just at the time when all
businesses, large and small, are finding it necessary to down-size in order to compete
against foreign companies. This means that today's unemployment figures are much worse
than they would have been in prior recessions, but this is in no way the President's fault or
responsibility. The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates to a point unthinkable just a
few years ago, due to their fears of reviving a runaway economic boom and double-digit
inflation such as we had under Carter. Economists agree that everything is in place for a
period of strong, sustained economic expansion, the stock market is still within striking
distance of its all-time record high, yet the nation's mood is still fearful. Why? Well, who
controls the nation's mood? Is it not the Electronic Visitors we allow into our houses each
day and night? Find me a single national news anchorperson who provides balanced
coverage to the candidates, and I will agree to vote Democratic. It is a safe bet, because
there aren't any. They know that people won't begin to spend their way out of this
recession (which is the only way out) as long as they are fearful of the future, and the
longer that they can prolong this recession, the better their candidate's chances are. It's an
excellent agenda, and all the better because no one can prove anything against them.
9970 Timberlake Drive East
Jacksonville FL 32257-6048
(904) 260-4119
Do you prefer this country the way it is today, as compared to the way it was twenty or
more years ago? If you do, then you should definitely vote for "Slick Willie", for in him
are all of the crypto-liberal "virtues" met. A Clinton/Gore victory in November will
guarantee that this nation's accelerating slide into decadence and corruption, begun with
the ascendancy of his "philosophy" decades ago, will continue unabated. You don't have
to be a weatherman to see which way the wind is blowing, but a weatherman who lies to
us about approaching hurricanes is an unconvicted felon, and unworthy of our trust.
President Bush and the Republican party, for all their shortcomings, truly represent the
struggle of decency against decay, of standards against self-interest, of doing what is right
for this nation, even if it isn't politically popular. If we, as a nation, turn out our
Presidents just because they do what we elected them to do, then we are, of all people,
most miserable. May God have mercy on us all.
Sincerely,
Bob & Suzanne Hamrick
Unemployed Republicans
the chief enemies of the family are televi-
sion and consumerism: "The national
drug policy says, Just Say No, and the beer
commercials say, Say Yes to Alcohol,
which is saying yes to drugs-and the col-
lateral kick is you can have sex too."
Often the targets and emphases of the
Republicans' family-values campaigns
seem a bit off. What worries parents most is
a sense that they have little control over the
world in which their children are growing
up, over its temptations, its drugs, its over-
heated sex, its atmosphere of astonishing
casual violence. Last week on the family-val-
ues dais in Houston, after
Bush's acceptance speech,
Arnold Schwarzenegger
was a conspicuous honored
guest. In the first few min-
utes of Terminator 2, par-
ents do not fail to notice,
Schwarzenegger, in order to
steal someone's motorcycle
and clothes, drives a long-
bladed knife through a
man's shoulder, pinning
him to a pool table, and fries
another man's hands and
face on the griddle of a res-
taurant. Ten-year-olds
watch Schwarzenegger's
disgusting violence and absorb it as if it were
normal, acceptable and heroic behavior.
The Political Interest/Michael Kramer
Bush's Reward
measurably. He would probably still be in power, and
we'd still be stalemated."
How will the current state of play effect Bush in No-
vember? "A lot depends on whether the peace process
For Courage
is perceived as actually moving," says Rabbi Daniel
Syme of the Union of American Hebrew Congrega-
tions. "In Bush's favor is the fact that for the first time,
speedy progress is in everyone's interest. Israel's econ-
ISRAEL IS TO FOREIGN POLICY AS ENTITLEMENT PRO-
omy desperately needs the loan guarantees, so Rabin
grams are to domestic affairs. Getting tough on either
will do what he must to get them. The Arabs, as the
is considered politically suicidal, especially in a presi-
saying goes, have never missed an opportunity to miss
dential-election year. Cowardice continues to dominate
an opportunity, but they clearly want to help Bush too."
discussions about cutting Social Security and Medi-
That's right, says a Saudi Cabinet minister who was
care. Everyone knows the deficit will remain unman-
present when Baker met with King Fahd last week.
ageable until those programs are trimmed, but only
"We didn't need to be told that we Arabs can help Bush
Ross Perot has seriously proposed whacking them-
by showing some flexibility. We owe him for the gulf
and Perot, on the sidelines, is the ultimate coward.
war, and in any event we see the Democrats as Zion-
Israel is another matter. When the Bush Adminis-
ists. Even [Syrian President] Assad understands that
tration took office, it faced two choices. It could have
four more years of Bush would be better for him, which
made the usual noises with predictable results: no
is why we don't expect Damascus to object too loudly
real progress toward peace in the Middle East but no
when the loan guarantees are granted, even if Israel's
settlement freeze is less than total."
JEROME
For the moment, Bill Clinton is in the
cold, as he deserves to be. For months, as he
has pandered to Jewish voters, Clinton's logic
has been tortured. He has routinely praised
Bush and Baker for "getting the peace talks
started," but he has just as regularly shot at
the Administration for its loan guarantee
stance, which was the key element in getting
the players to the table in the first place. "It
ain't complicated," concedes a Clinton aide.
"We needed Jewish votes in the primaries.
We played it one step at a time, and we can't
waffle now. We're stuck. We can only hope
there's enough residual bitterness about
Bush's hardball tactics to depress his part of
the Jewish vote in November."
With Shamir gone, Baker and Rabin are making progress
While every vote counts, the power of
Jewish ballots in a general election for Pres-
roiling of American Jewish attitudes, a nonpolicy vir-
ident has been historically overstated. "For Jews, vot-
tually guaranteed to deliver a normal 30% of the Jew-
ing Democratic is like being circumcised," says Wil-
ish vote to the G.O.P. But George Bush and Jim Baker
liam Helmreich, a City College of New York sociologist.
were eager to succeed where their predecessors
"Neither is easily reversed. The Democrat gets 70%
failed, and that meant confrontation-with U.S. Jews
without blinking an eye. Barry Goldwater's 10% share
and with Yitzhak Shamir, the intransigent Israeli
in 1964 represents the G.O.P'S low point, and no one ex-
Prime Minister whose life's mission was retaining the
pects Bush to do that poorly." But assume he does.
occupied territories. As Bush and Baker fought and
Look at California, Illinois, Pennsylvania and Mary-
beat the Israeli lobby in Washington, they were re-
land, four states with significant Jewish populations
viled for encouraging anti-Semitism and were called
(and 109 electoral votes in 1992) that Bush carried by
anti-Semites themselves. They took the heat and pre-
less than 2 points four years ago-while capturing ap-
vailed. Today Israel's new government is scaling back
proximately 30% of the Jewish vote in each. Bush
the West Bank settlements. the peace negotiations
would have carried those states even if his share of the
may finally yield autonomy for the Palestinians Jeru-
Jewish vote had sunk to Goldwater's 10%.
salem rules, and the $10 billion in loan guarantees to
But this year's election in those states may be even
help resettle Soviet Jews will probably be approved
closer, and thus the Jewish vote may achieve unprece-
when Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin meets with Bush
dented significance. No one will know that until Nov. 3.
in mid-August.
Meanwhile, as most observers believe that Bush will re-
For all this, the Administration deserves consider-
capture the G.O.P.'S traditional share of the Jewish vote,
able credit. "Shamir was the roadblock, and the loan
it is enough to say that the Administration's good poli-
guarantees were Bush's stick." says Ze'ev Chafets. an
cy may prove to be good politics-and that if it doesn't,
Israeli journalist who served as Menachem Begin's
and Bush loses, President Clinton will be left with a
spokesman. "Had Bush caved in to American Jewish
more peaceful Middle East, for which he too will owe
THES
pressures, Shamir would have been strengthened im-
George Bush a great deal.
44
TIME. AUGUST 3. 1992
depending
Phoice
tion. Democrats sense an unexpected syn-
peal to the conservative base." Bennett,
ergy between Clinton and Gore. Television
most other top Bush advisers consider
Weber and other top Bush advisers agree
images of the two fortysomething men call-
Quayle to be the President's main political
that removing Quayle would hurt the
ing for change "help us make our case that
problem. Says Bennett: "George Bush is
President more than it would help, by
it's the new against the old," says Clinton
where he is politically because of George
compounding the damage from his aban-
strategist James Carville. Democratic poll-
Bush." Weber considers the Quayle de-
doned "no new taxes" vow. Says Bennett:
bate "a harmful distraction" from "our
ster Geoffrey Garin says if voters are close-
"It would look like another broken prom-
ly divided between Bush and Clinton in No-
core problem," which is "the credibility
ise: wobbly, panicky and inconsistent."
vember, the Quayle-Gore mismatch "has
the President has lost on the economy and
Some Republicans and reporters spec-
the potential to be a scale tipper in
taxes. There is a strong feeling among the
ulated that Secretary of State James Bak-
favor of the Democrats."
voters that the economy is crummy and
er, who is expected next month to assume
Some G.O.P. officials are in agreement,
that George Bush isn't going to do any-
joint command of the Bush campaign and
citing new polls showing that even among
thing about it. We Republicans are not
White House-and who opposed the
Republicans, a solid majority prefer Gore
seen as credible agents of change in eco-
choice of Quayle in 1988-wants him re-
over Quayle. "This is not a Washington
nomic policy. And we can't fix that just
placed. Officials friendly with Baker, how-
Beltway phenomenon," warns a senior
with a negative campaign."
ever, deny this, explaining that Baker's
This point is echoed by mid-level offi-
Bush aide. "We're hearing from Republi-
own presidential ambitions would not be
cials at the White House and Bush cam-
cans all over the country who are afraid
served if one of his potential rivals in
paign headquarters. They are worried that
that the campaign is going to be too close
1996-say, Defense Secretary Dick Che-
this time, and that Quayle might cost us
the President and several of his top advis-
ney-were elevated to the vice presidency.
the few points that decide the election."
ers-campaign manager Robert Teeter,
More to the point, neither Baker nor
White House chief of staff Sam Skinner,
Moreover, any setback to
Bush's health before November
Treasury Secretary Nick Brady-
are far too confident that in the
would strengthen the Veep fac-
tor. In response to persistent ru-
When Push
end, all that matters is "presiden-
mors that he is ill, Bush and his
tial stature." Teeter explains that
in "the last weeks of the cam-
doctor last week reiterated that
Came to Shove
paign, the voters will look at the
his health is excellent, despite his
candidates on a different basis
bout last year with Graves' dis-
than they do now: on who has the
ease and his vomiting and col-
Dan Quayle is hardly the first Vice President to become
lapse, caused by intestinal flu, at
temperament, judgment, experi-
a political liability for his boss. Three times in this century
ence and character to serve as
a state dinner in Tokyo last Janu-
incumbent Presidents have chosen new running mates.
ary. Reporters and staffers who
President. We're very confident of
Those left behind:
try to keep pace with Bush
that-confident enough to base
find him exceptionally fit
our entire campaign on it."
JOHN NANCE GARNER (1940). As F.D.R. dith-
Thus, when the White House
and energetic for a man of
ered over whether to run for a third term, Gar-
68. Still, as a Bush friend ob-
decided to send a top official to St.
ner, who had opposed Roosevelt's pro-labor
Louis last week to counter the
served, "he hasn't had
New Deal policies and his attempt to pack the
much fun in this job lately,
Clinton-Gore bus tour, it assigned
Supreme Court, entered the presidential race
and that shows on his face."
presidential adviser Clayton
himself. With the Nazi threat to Europe looming
Yeutter, who emphasized that
Most G.O.P. strategists
larger in the summer of 1940, Roosevelt engi-
"Clinton does not have one-tenth
expect the 1992 election to
neered his own renomination and shunted Gar-
the stature that the President has
be decided, as others have been,
ner aside in favor of Secretary of Agriculture Henry Wal-
all over the world. The American
almost entirely on voters' judg-
lace, a former Republican but a loyal New Dealer.
ments of the men at the top of the
people are going to wake up and
realize this."
tickets. After the 1988 election,
HENRY WALLACE (1944). Overshadowing
Republicans carefully studied the
For his part, Bush urges
Roosevelt's choice of a running mate was the
"Quayle factor," and found that
Republicans not to panic,
suspicion that he might not live to the end of a
the Vice President cost the ticket
reminding them that he was
fourth term. Vice President Wallace's advoca-
17 points behind Dukakis at
no more than 2% of the popular
cy of civil rights and his utopian rhetoric about
this juncture in 1988. One
vote.
a global New Deal made him anathema to big-
difference, however, is that
Representative Vin Weber, a
city bosses and conservative Southern Demo-
Bush in 1988 could run on
Minnesota Republican whose po-
crats. F.D.R. toyed with the idea of picking Su-
litical advice Bush values, bluntly
the rosy-looking Reagan
preme Court Justice William 0. Douglas to replace him,
economic record. Another differ-
recalls that Quayle "wasn't a pop-
but finally settled on Missouri Senator Harry Truman.
ular choice in 1988, and suffered
ence, says a veteran of the 1988
campaign, was that "at least we
by contrast with [Democratic
NELSON ROCKEFELLER (1976). With Gerald Ford fac-
had 'no new taxes' as a central,
vice-presidential nominee] Lloyd
ing a challenge from Ronald Reagan for the Republican
positive appeal. This time there
Bentsen, and it didn't make any
nomination in 1976, Rockefeller served as a lightning
is a vacuum at the heart of the
difference to the outcome." Says
rod for conservatives, who had never forgiven him for
William Bennett, a former Cabi-
Bush campaign and Administra-
opposing Barry Goldwater in 1964. Rocky tried to ap-
tion. That is what allows Clinton
net member who remains
pease the right wing by attacking welfare
and Gore to dominate the televi-
close to Bush and Quayle:
"cheats." To no avail: Ford's campaign manag-
"When George Bush was at
sion news and set the political
er described him as the President's "No. 1 prob-
agenda, at least for now. It is also
85% in the polls, was Dan
lem" in winning the G.O.P. nomination. In No-
the main reason why SO many
Quayle doing anything dif-
vember 1975 Rockefeller jumped off the ticket
Republicans, unable to persuade
ferently? No. Quayle has not
before Ford could push him. Ford replaced him
Bush to aggressively address the
set the world on fire, but he
with Kansas Senator Bob Dole, but the ticket
problems of the economy, are
has done his job. He has
lost to Jimmy Carter and Walter Mondale.
seeking a scapegoat in Dan
been loyal, and he has ap-
Quayle.
FROM TOP: THOMAS MC AVOY MC AVOY: BILL PIERCE
TIME, AUGUST 3, 1992
39
America Abroad/Strobe Talbott
How Not to
The effort to link MFN to a foreign government's re-
spect for human rights is especially misguided in the
case of China. Since sanctions are intended to keep Chi-
Break China
nese-made products out of the American market, they
will harm, first and foremost, those Chinese who are in-
volved in export businesses. That means manufactur-
ers, merchants and wheeler-dealers who benefited from
ONCE AGAIN, THOSE WOULD-BE STATESMEN ON CAPITOL
the Good Deng's free-market economic reforms. These
Hill are trying to micromanage American foreign poli-
cy and legislate morality in another country-some-
entrepreneurs are, in the main, liberals or at least apolit-
thing Congress does often and badly. Over the next sev-
ical. Granted, they are not as brave or noble as the pro-
eral weeks, the Senate will almost certainly pass a bill
democracy activists who faced down the Bad Deng's
that would punish China for its internal tyranny and ir-
tanks in Tiananmen, but they are essentially on the
responsible international behavior by restricting its
same side. Their commercial success is part of the larg-
trade with the U.S.
er process of coaxing China away from communism,
and they are a key part of the generation that will take
The leaders of the People's Republic richly deserve
over from the old men any day.
sanctions. The people themselves, however, don't. Ever
since the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989, Con-
In order to meet this obvious flaw in the logic of
sanctions, Representative Don Pease, an Ohio Demo-
gress has been looking for ways to beat up on Deng Xiao-
crat, has come up with a twist that may be clever
ping, 87, and his hard-line protégé, Premier Li Peng. In
enough to overcome both experts' opposition and
addition to repressing its citizens and persecuting its
President Bush's certain veto. The Pease bill, which
opponents, the Chinese regime has
been selling lethal high technology to a
passed the House last week, would
number of potential troublemakers,
impose sanctions only on state-
particularly in the Middle East. As a re-
The attempt to
owned enterprises; it supposedly ex-
sult, Sino-American relations are the
empts the private sector.
worst they have been in 20 years.
punish Beijing
Actually, the measure is too clever
by half. It relies on a distinction that is
George Bush has contributed to the
with sanctions
hard to define and impossible to en-
problem by coddling the Deng-Li ger-
force. Take mohair. The textile mills
ontocracy, thereby provoking Congress
on trade
to try to replace the Administration's
that make the sweaters are largely
Mr. Nice Guy policy with its own tough-
will backfire,
state owned, but the suppliers are inde-
er one. It has been 17 years since Bush
pendents. Another example: silkworm
was U.S. envoy to China, yet he still
just like other
cocoons are raised by private farmers
and small cooperatives, while the
seems to suffer from the clientitis that
sometimes afflicts ambassadors who
such efforts
threads are woven into silk scarves at
represent the views of their host gov-
state factories and sold by state trading
in the past
organizations. In effect, the Pease bill
ernments too well. Three weeks after
penalizes everyone in the chain.
Tiananmen, the President dispatched
National Security Adviser Brent Scow-
So curtailing MFN would hurt ele-
ments in China the outside world
croft and Deputy Secretary of State Lawrence Eagle-
should be trying to help. It could also be disastrous for
burger to kowtow in secret to Deng, then sent them back
several months later to toast him in public.
Hong Kong, which relies heavily on thriving commerce
in the People's Republic, and unwelcome in Taiwan,
Largely in reaction to that craven and gratuitous be-
which is quietly investing on the mainland.
havior, Congress has generated a flurry of bills that
would attach political conditions to China's most-fa-
Neither Hong Kong, Taiwan nor the booming
Shenzhen Special Economic Zone inside China itself
vored-nation status. In fact, MFN is a misnomer: it im-
plies special treatment but really means normal, equal
has any representatives in the U.S. Congress, or any
votes in the Electoral College. That is why the Senate
treatment. All but a handful of the 187 countries on
earth have MFN, including such pariahs and miscreants
will pass some version of the Pease bill, and it is why
as Iraq, Syria, Iran, Libya and Burma.
Bill Clinton and the Democrats endorsed a pro-sanc-
tions plank in their party platform at their convention
Over the years, Congress has tried to use the denial
in New York City two weeks ago. It is easier for a mem-
of MFN-or what might more accurately be called the
ber of Congress to tell his constituents-or a candidate
conferment of LFN (least-favored-nation)-status as a
challenging Bush to tell the voters-"I'm against the
stick to make countries behave. It has never worked. In-
butchers of Beijing!" than to explain how free trade
stead the use of trade as a political weapon has almost
with China strengthens the reformers and moderates
always backfired. The classic example is also the origi-
for the power struggle to come.
nal one: in the mid-1970s, congressional conservatives
The whole episode is a vivid reminder of the un-
passed the famous Jackson-Vanik amendment, which
easy, often unhelpful interaction between U.S. politics
withheld MFN from the U.S.S.R. until the Kremlin
and foreign policy, especially in an election year. Politi-
agreed to let more Soviet Jews emigrate. Just to show
cians are quick to embrace simple positions on com-
who was boss, Leonid Brezhnev decreased the number of
plex issues that make them feel good and look good-
exit visas by two-thirds.
but in fact make a bad situation worse.
TIME, AUGUST 3, 1992
53
"basically conservative," as George Bush was quick
to characterize them? Or were they issuing a "call
to change," as Clinton rushed to claim? Early polls
showed more of Perot's supporters opting for Clin-
ton, but many were still too deep in shock to recon-
DIANA FOR TIME
sider their options. Some were insisting that they
would still cast a protest vote for Perot, whose name
will remain on the ballot in half the states or more.
In time, many of them will begin warily examining
the candidates of the two shopworn parties they
abandoned just a few months ago.
Perot did seem to send his followers a signal
about what direction they might take. He spoke
about having been impressed in recent weeks by a
"revitalized" Democratic Party. And that was even
before Clinton's acceptance speech, which adroitly
pitched the Democratic tent in the middle-class
backyard. The President appears to have noticed
too; he spent the week fishing-but at the Wyoming
OFF THE CAMPAIGN
will determine individual awards. Despite the ob-
TRAIL: Bush lunches
ranch of Secretary of State James Baker, the Bush
stacles ahead, attorneys are confident that compen-
with inner-city boys at
campaign chairman in 1988 who may sign on for a
sation is at last in sight for the 8,500 Maryland
Sequoia National Park
repeat engagement.
As usually happens after a prime-time political
plaintiffs. But thousands of others suffering from
lovefest, the challengers bounced out of the conven-
asbestos-related diseases may never live to receive
tion way above the incumbents: a TIME/CNN poll con-
the compensation they have pursued SO painfully.
ducted on the day Perot quit the race had Clinton-
Gore topping Bush-Quayle by 20%. That lead was 3
points larger than the one that Michael Dukakis en-
Just Clearing the Air
joyed in the immediate afterglow of the 1988 con-
vention. But Dukakis kept his campaign in low gear,
To curb pollution, the EPA demands
and the Bush team wiped out his lead with negative
tougher auto-emissions testing
campaigning. This time the Democrats are taking
no chances. The day after the convention, Clinton
THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION MAY BE MAKING LIFE
and Gore set out on a six-day bus tour from New
easier for industries that pollute the air-but not for
York to St. Louis. In this year's volatile politics of
motorists. Though the White House last month is-
frustration and skepticism, maybe the only thing
sued an environmental regulation enabling busi-
more uncertain than a three-way race is a two-way
nesses to sidestep provisions of the 1990 Clean Air
race. (See related stories beginning on page 28.)
Act, the Environmental Protection Agency has now
issued a rule that will enforce part of the same mea-
A Big Win for
Asbestos Workers
NO ROOM AT
THE DUMP
In a move that did
Seven firms are found negligent
nothing to improve
in a complex Maryland trial
its image, New
York City sent off
WITH TENS OF THOUSANDS OF ASBESTOS CASES
pending in U.S. courts, a Maryland judge two years
7635
7635
2,200 tons of
garbage to the
ago sought to ease the backlog by consolidating more
STEPHEN
heartland last
than 8,500 claims of negligence and liability. Now the
month in search of
first and most significant phase of the nation's single
CONRAIL
largest asbestos trial has ended with a big victory for
a welcoming
landfill. Alas, the
the plaintiffs. After 12 hours of deliberation, a jury
detritus, occupying
found seven companies liable for manufacturing
30 railcars, was
asbestos products that they knew or should have
known were dangerous to workers handling them.
rejected in three
states. After a
Asbestos, a mineral once widely used for insula-
3,000-mile trip, the
tion and fireproofing, has been linked to fatal respi-
ratory illnesses. The plaintiffs' attorneys argued
bug-infested cargo
that information on the health effects of asbestos
wound up back
home, destined for
was available to the industry decades before the is-
the Staten Island
sue gained attention in the late 1960s.
landfill.
In the next phase of the trial, the jury will decide
whether the companies are liable for compensatory
and punitive damages; then a series of smaller trials
17
TIME, JULY 27, 1992
THE WEEK
pauls.
sure by requiring tougher emissions tests and more
been hooked-for other incidents. Vice Admiral Jer-
Industring pay
expensive repairs for car owners.
ry Tuttle, 57, named to head the Navy's air arm, was
The proposed regulations, which become final
denied promotion for sexist jokes in a newsletter he
in November, require 55 new urban areas to begin
writes. Rear Admiral Joseph Prueher, 49, named to
testing emissions from cars and light trucks by next
take command of the Third Fleet, was gigged for a
July. That would bring to 177 the number of regions
1989 episode at Annapolis, where he was the No. 2
conducting such tests. And in about 80 metropoli-
man, when male midshipmen handcuffed a female
tan areas with the worst air problems-home to
classmate to a urinal.
more than 60 million automobiles-the test will be
made much tougher. The simple tail-pipe gauge
BITTER PILL The Supreme Court may have sus-
that measures exhaust while the engine idles will be
tained American women's right to choose abortion,
gone. The new test requires a high-tech treadmill
but it still seems willing to limit the ways to have
device with the Jetson-ish name dynamometer. It
one. In a test case involving the French abortion pill
collects exhaust while the car idles, accelerates and
RU-486, the Justices by a 7-to-2 vote upheld an ap-
brakes. Then it runs the material through comput-
pellate-court ruling that bars return of the drug to a
erized equipment SO sensitive that millions of cars
pregnant woman. U.S. customs agents had seized
now capable of passing inspection are likely to fail.
the pills from Leona Benten, 29, who had legally ac-
And not just old smokies: the EPA estimates that as
quired them abroad. The court left open the ques-
many as a third of recent-model cars will flunk, in-
tion of the constitutionality of the U.S. ban on RU-
stead of the current 8% to 10%.
486. Benten now plans to have a surgical abortion.
The EPA had good reason to issue the new rules.
More than 20 years after the government began re-
quiring annual emissions tests for many cars, half
WORLD
of the smog and 90% of the carbon monoxide in the
air still pours out of tail pipes; the rest comes mainly
from the smokestacks of factories and oil refineries.
Another Cease-Fire
The new regulations could reduce smog-producing
emissions and carbon monoxide pollution from ve-
In Bosnia-Too Late?
hicles by 30% in many cities. But repairs to pass the
test could cost drivers from $25 to $450, a stiff in-
New offensives have gobbled up
crease from the present average of $50 to $75. (Any-
much of what little was left
one whose car still can't make the grade even after
an outlay of $450 will get a waiver until the next re-
IF THEY EVER GO INTO EFFECT, CEASE-FIRES IN
quired test.) Maybe that kind of expense would be
what was once Yugoslavia tend to be a passing fad;
less painful if industry were also paying its share.
roughly 30 have come and gone since the civil wars
began in June 1991. Nonetheless, leaders of the
Serb, Croat and Muslim communities of Bosnia-
Herzegovina, conferring in London through inter-
ET CETERA
mediaries (they refused to talk face-to-face) ar-
TAILHOOKED The sex-abuse scandal that followed
ranged one more truce, which was supposed to
1991's Tailhook convention of Navy and Marine pi-
begin this Sunday evening. Even on the off chance
lots has shot down a Navy Secretary and held up
that it holds, will there be enough of Bosnia left to
thousands of promotions. Now two top admirals have
call a country? The answer probably is no.
HEART OF DARKNESS:
Sarajevans huddle in
candlelight during a
two-day shutoff of water
and power, caused by
Serb dynamiting of
power lines, as the
siege tightens
DAVIOTURNLEY-THE DETROIT FREE PRESS/BLACK STAR
18
TIME, JULY 27, 1992
FRED PARKS
ATTORNEY AND COUNSELOR AT LAW
1750 HOUSTON CLUB BUILDING
NRW
811 RUSK
HOUSTON, TEXAS 77002-2814
PHONE (713) 222-6251
FAX (713) 222-7501
The Honorable James Baker
Chief of Staff
The White House
1600 Pennsylvania Avenue
Washington, D.C. 20002
Dear Jim:
In my opinion, one of the main issues of this campaign is to
prove "Slick Willie" a liar, which he is. The issue should not be
that he dodged the draft, because too few people will feel
offended by that. He must be called and branded a liar, in my
opinion however, for lying about how he avoided the draft.
I believe a 1 or 2 percent swing in the popular vote would be
enough to put Bush on top in the polls where he is lagging
around 10 percent.
Respectfully submitted,
Feel Fred Parks
FP/jc
FEDERAL
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9/22- celled
CIGNA Corporation
NRN
to Thank
Hartford, CT 06152
(203) 726-7538
said wedshare
w/policy planning
CIGNA
Edward Guay
Chief Economist
August 24, 1992
Mr. James A. Baker III
White House Chief of Staff
The White House
1600 Pennsylvania Avenue
Washington, DC 20500
Dear Mr. Baker: Iim
We can help Germany make the right decisions for the U.S. and
European economies by exposing their fundamental trade weakness.
They are now in the same position that we were in 1985 when you
moved from the White House to the Treasury. German real estate and
domestic demand are still too strong because of domestic fiscal
subsidies. But, the German (and European) trade position is
eroding because of overvalued European currencies. And, in spite
of the domestic demand strength in Germany, the profitability of
German basic industry and the employment security in German basic
industry are under pressure because of high real interest rates.
If our export banking activities were better organized, our
industry would be taking market share from every European
manufacturing industry at current foreign exchange rates and
current dollar short and medium term interest rates. In the short-
run, the Federal Reserve can speed the trade adjustment by buying
export acceptances from the banks, making short-term export finance
our most liquid market. They can do this without adversely
affecting monetary policy goals if they sell Treasury bills to
offset the export acceptance purchases. The Fed should, in any
case, have in place a policy of balancing its liabilities to
foreign central banks ($296 billion) by building an equal portfolio
of export acceptances over the next four years. The lack of such
a policy since the collapse of Bretton Woods is one of the key
reasons for the long term instability in our current account
position. The announcement of such a policy would cause an upward
spike in both export activity and the dollar over the next 90 days.
Also, given that our manufacturers are generally in excellent
financial condition, have an attractive equity market to work with,
have relatively low real borrowing costs, are operating near
historic average operating rates, and need to modernize plant and
equipment to take advantage of NAFTA and global business
opportunities, now is a perfect time to use a temporary two-year,
refundable investment tax credit to stimulate rapid modernization.
Mr. James A. Baker III
August 24, 1992
Page 2
If it is proposed to be retroactive to September 1, and if Congress
is called into special session, if necessary, to pass it this year,
it can more than offset the economic and employment effects of the
defense cuts. Offering a ten percent investment tax credit now
would stabilize the dollar, attract a capital inflow for
manufacturing investment, primarily at Europe's expense, and would
emphasize our improving competitive position with respect to
Europe.
Both moves suggested above would dramatically improve our
competitive position in the world on a long term basis. They have
the added advantage of emphasizing in Germany, and in Europe as a
whole, that German policy is harming European economic development
and world trade, and that we need not wait for Germany to permit us
to grow. But unlike the confrontations of 1987, these moves can be
described entirely in domestic policy terms.
Although some federal budgeteers may insist that an investment tax
credit should be paid for with other tax increases or spending
cuts, those who will be laid off in the defense industry during the
next six months or those who have been RIFed from the armed forces
can rightfully claim that it has already been paid for. In any
case, a temporary investment tax credit, when introduced at a time
of economic and financial slack pays for itself.
My very best wishes in your new job.
Sincerely,
Shey
Ross C Parker
Charleston, S.C.
Dock Street Theatre
The Dock Street Theatre
Church Street and Queen Street
Church Street was once called Dock Street for it was here that the
small boats from plantations came up the Cooper River and
docked. Near here on Queen Street the first theatre opened in
1737. The original building had disappeared by 1809, when the
sumptuous Planter's Hotel began operating. The central portion
with its indented entry, brownstone columns and balcony, was
added later. In danger of demolition, the building was saved and
reconstructed in 1935 by the W.P.A. under the leadership of
Harry Hopkins as an 18th Century theatre. Here many of the
events of the Spoleto Art Festival are held in the Spring.
NRN
9-14-92
Jim I CANT BELIEVE PRESIDENT
BUSH WILL PASS ON THIS ISSUE
AND LET BENISEN AND THE DE
mo CRATS REAP THE PUBLICITY =
VOTES -
Bue Kopocho
Bentsen Amendment May Reverse IRS
the Senate Veterans' Affairs Committee.
At that meeting, Brady softened his stance
Tax Threat to Veterans' Compensation
on the primary thrust of the IRS opinion
and conceded that VA disability benefits,
An amendment offered by Senate Fi-
since 1986-including cost-of-living adjust-
including debt waivers and in-kind ben-
nance Committee Chairman Lloyd
ments (COLAs) in the disability compensa-
efits, were not subject to taxation. How-
Bentsen (D-Texas) to the 1992 tax bill
tion program (see "Tax-Exempt Status of VA
ever, Treasury Department officials said
may prove to be the final ste:- in revers-
Benefits Still in Doubt" on page 1 of the
they still planned to thoroughly review the
ing an Internal Revenue Service (IRS) rul-
August 1992 issue of DAV Magazine).
effect of the 1986 Tax Reform Act on taxa-
ing that could have jeopardized the
The House, which passed H.R. 11 on July
tion of certain veterans' benefits and left
tax-exempt status of certain VA benefits
2, and Senate are expected to meet in con-
open the possibility that future benefits
and compensation for disabled veterans
ference later this month to work out differ-
could be taxed.
and their families.
ences in their parate versions of the bill.
At the White House on August 4, DAV
The Bentsen amendment, adopted Au-
Bentsen has promised the DAV that he will
National Legislative Director John Hei-
gust 11 during Senate consideration of the
make a major effort to include his clarifying
Iman personally alerted President Bush to
House-passed H.R. 11, was needed to
language in the final version of H.R. 11.
the problem and asked him to intervene
clarify language in a provision of the Tax
In June, Heilman and DAV Executive
with Treasury Department officials on the
Reform Act of 1986. The IRS earlier this
Director Jesse Brown discussed the issue
matter. Despite indications that something
year ruled that the provision, as originally
with Treasury Secretary Nicholas Brady
would be done, the White House has taken
written, allowed them to tax all VA pro-
at a meeting arranged by Sen. Arlen Spec-
no definitive action.
gram improvements and modifications
ter (R-Pa.), ranking minority member of
"When we approached Senator Bentsen
and informed him of our belief that it was
Senator Lloyd Bentsen of Texas. (SIPA Photo)
never the intent of Congress in 1986 -
or at any time - to tax veterans' benefits,
he immediately agreed and took swift ac-
tion to correct the problem," said DAV
National Commander Joseph C. Zengerle
"Senator Bentsen should be highly com-
mended for his assistance and demonstrat-
ing his compassion for all disabled
veterans and their families."
"We' definitely encouraged by Sena-
tor Bentsen's actions and very optimistic
that House and Senate conferees will in-
clude this much-needed clarifying lan-
guage in the final version of H.R. 11,"
Zengerle said. "The time has come to put
an end to any and all threats to the tax-
exempt status of all veterans' benefits ad-
ministered by the VA."
COLA/DIC Bills Closer to Passage
Bills dealing with a cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for ser-
Current DIC beneficiaries would automatically be paid the
vice-connected disabled veterans and their survivors and De-
higher rate applicable, whether its the current rate or the new
pendency and Indemnity Compensation (DIC) reform moved
proposed rate. H.R. 5008 would also gradually increase the al-
closer to passage as Congress scrambled to complete action on a
lowance for dependent children from $71 per month per child
number of major legislative initiatives before going on its sum-
to $200 per month per child by Fiscal 1995. The bill would
mer recess. No final action will be taken, however, until the
also create a limited exemption to permit certain individuals to
Senate returns on September 8 and the House returns for busi-
be reinstated to DIC or death pension rolls if, prior to Nov. 1,
ness a day later.
1990, they had started legal action to end a disqualifying mar-
Both the House and Senate have passed legislation authorizing a
riage and such marriage was actually terminated by the legal
COLA in VA service-connected disability and death compensation
action. Similar legislation is also pending in the Senate.
benefits effective December 1 of this year. Both versions are virtu-
The journey of concurrent receipt legislation, another key
ally identical and it is expected that a 3.2 percent COLA bill will be
DAV goal, took a strange twist when the Senate Armed Ser-
cleared and sent to the White House before Congress adjourns.
vices Committee set aside legislation proposed by Rep. Michael
DIC reform, which has a long been a key DAV legislative ob-
Bilirakis (R-Fla.) and Sen. Bob Graham (D-Fla.) and, instead,
jective, cleared a major hurdle when the House passed H.R. 5008
directed the Department of Defense (DoD) to develop its own
on August 10. Under the bill, monthly DIC rates would be re-
legislative proposal that would eliminate the prohibition of dual
structured to provide a base payment of $750 per month to all
receipt of VA disability compensation and military longevity
surviving spouses. The bill would also provide a "kicker" of $50
retirement pay. DoD was also directed to identify and set aside
a month if the veteran died in the line of duty or was rated as
funds during the upcoming fiscal year to pay for its legislative
totally disabled from service-connected disabilities for at least
proposal. The directive is contained in S. 3114, the Fiscal 1993
five years prior to death. The changes would become effective
Defense Authorization Bill. which the Senate will consider
with respect to all deaths occurring after Jan. 1. 1993.
when it returns from recess.
SEPTEMBER 1992
Page 3
CHARTE ALESTON. 15 SEP OS
First Voyage of Christopher Columbus
Approachin Landling
294
1992
SM
The United Wat
MLDCR 07
M USA 29
Jim BAKER
PRES CAMPAIGN DENT Busiten
WASHINGTON D. C.20500
WHITE HOUSE
20013
WILLIAM F. KOPACKA
721 BROWNING RD.
CHARLESTON, SC 29407
9/22; Dr. Smith
-thanked hin for his letter lideas
NRN
September 2, 1992
Charles P. Smith
1960 Tiara Dr.
Ojai, CA 93023
The Honorable James A. Baker III
Chief-of-Staff
The White House
Washington, D.C. 20500
Dear Jim:
This letter is intended to help President Bush convert his strong foreign policy
success in his first term into better domestic results in his second term. The
attached paper has ideas that could be useful in the 1992 campaign as well.
These ideas show how President Bush can offer significant positive leadership in
his second term, regardless of which party is in power in Congress, to leave a
strong legacy of the sixteen years of his Presidency and that of President
Reagan. These thoughts are intended to add new dimensions to current
Adminstration plans.
These suggestions should help protect national security while accomplishing
Presidential themes of lower taxes, spending limits, debt reduction, less
regulation, free trade, and individual empowerment. The ideas emphasize the
President's interest in economic growth, international stability, limited
government and cultural values. All proposals are placed in the context of
recent Presidential statements or speeches. They should have appeal to a wide
population, including those from state/local government and the private sector.
The attached paper urges caution in claiming an "end" to the Cold War and
Communism since that may mask other national security problems and encourage the
general population to seek massive shifts of Federal effort to domestic
purposes. The paper also suggests how the U.S. miltary and industrial base can
better used temporarily or permanently for various purposes in the U.S. such as
crises management (e.g., hurricanes, riots), infrastructure improvement, or
control of environmental pollution. Finally, the paper points out some related
areas for program effort, including deficit reduction, value development and
urban capacity-building.
My views incorporate insight of my nine years of full-time service in the Bush
and Reagan Administrations, including work as Deputy Director of The White House
Office of Planning and Evaluation (1981-82) and as Director of the U.S. Bureau
of Justice Assistance (!988-1990). I am currently writing a book on the Reagan
Presidency.
You can reach me at the above address or at 805-640-8171 if I can be of further
assistance. Good luck.
Sincerely,
Charlie
Dr. Charles P. Smith
C.C.: Attorney General William P. Barr
Secretary of Transportation Andrew H. Card Jr.
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Jack Kemp
September 2, 1992
SHIFTING NATIONAL SECURITY RESOURCES TO DOMESTIC USE WITH SAFETY
By Charles P. Smith
Statements that the "Cold War has ended" and that "Communism is dead" cause
problems since they mask continued instability in the old Soviet Union and
threats from other large countries (e.g., China) still under Communism. In
addition, other major national security threats (e.g., nuclear and
unconventional weapons, regional conflict, terrorism) remain that require U.S.
funds. Thus, although most people are likely to give President Bush much credit
for reducing the international threat, they will criticize him if they don't see
other national security threats and they can't shift Federal funds to domestic
purposes. In addition, large reduction in national security activity can
complicate any recession (e.g., higher unemployment) and reduce long-term growth
(e.g., fewer investments).
This paper is intended to show how some basic foreign and domestic strategies
can be undertaken to protect national security and increase domestic capacity in
time of financial limits. The ideas are intended to be new ways to build on
President Bush's agenda and suggest related themes. The paper contains concepts
on different uses of military and industrial capacity that require further
analysis, but which could be implemented quickly if desired.
EFFECTIVE USE OF MILITARY AND INDUSTRIAL BASE
Much effort was made by the Bush and Reagan Administrations to build a strong
military and industrial capacity that led to good results in the Cold War and
which can be used well in other national security threats. Such capacity should
be shifted to new priorities or reduced only as considered safe in the changing
world situation. It also might mean use of some capacity on a temporary basis
for domestic needs until foreign factors are better known and domestic problems
are more under control.
Hurricane Andrew demonstrated possible effective use of the military in a
natural disaster and the Los Angeles riot showed how such capabilties could be
used in civil disorders. Although some would criticize the rapidity of response
in both of these recent incidents, future problems could be minimized by
redefinition of military mission and establishment of new agreements with
government authorities and residents. The military has a presence in all states
that could be a valuable local asset as the military reduces its size, but must
always be ready for conventional warfare or disaster relief anywhere in the
world. Military equipment, mobility and training could be used effectively for
domestic purposes, particularly in times of critical limits on civilian resource
capacity. Placement of military at sites of domestic civil disorder or natural
disaster usually must be for only a short time since: (a) local residents resent
long presence and (b) the military has its own needs for readiness and personal
activity.
U.S. industrial capacity (e.g., national security, high-technology, traditional)
may be underutilized now and in the future due to changing needs and foreign
competition unless there are some creative actions. The Federal government
should encourage a free market and the opportunity for people to move into new
activities that make effective use of existing industrial capacity in the
transition.
Examples of possible domestic use of military or industrial capability are:
(1) expand crises response for natural disasters or civil disorders
(2) improve U.S. infrastructure (e.g., roads, public buildings,
communications links, waste disposal)
(3) expand international free trade
(4) increase independence from foreign energy sources
(5) minimize environmental pollution
(6) strenghthen education (e.g., job retraining)
(8) improve health care efficiency (e.g., merge military and veterans
hospitals)
(9) reduce substance abuse (e.g., interdiction, treatment)
(10) increase research and development
(11) control illegal immigration (e.g., border checkpoints)
(12) sharing of facilities and resources (e.g., firefighting, fuel storage
tanks, buildings)
(13) analyze existing national land uses (e.g., rights-of-way) for
alternative purposes.
OTHER FOREIGN OR DOMESTIC ACTIVITY TO HELP SOLVE PROBLEMS
The Federal government should also cooperate with other nations, the private
sector, and state/local governments to expand the job base while improving other
things through the following initiatives:
(A) Deficit Reduction: The Reagan Administration established a deficit
strategy in 1981 that recognized the likely short-term growth in the deficit to
fund improved national security as reductions were made in some domestic
programs and capital investments were encouraged for economic growth. These
strategies worked on national security and economic growwth, but the deficit
became a long-term problem due, in part, to the unwillingness by voters, benefit
recipients, and government officials to reduce entitlements and capital
expenditures by government. However, the climate for deficit reduction is
excellent now since the debate has correctly shifted SO that almost everyone
criticizes deficits rather than a few. The deficit could be solved better by the
following:
(1) All public revenue and expenditures, including trust funds, tax
deductions and benefit payments, should be considered within the budget and be
subject to annual adjustment depending on circumstances
(2) All persons who receive government benefit should share in deficit
reduction and control
(3) Each budget adopted should show some reduction in each years deficit and
the long-term debt by two years from the next budget adopted
(4) All artificial budget agreements or laws (e.g., Granm-Rudman) should be
scrapped and nothing new should be adopted without teeth
(5) the tax process should be simplified SO taxpayers would be more willing
and able to pay their fair share.
(B) Values: Increased emphasis on the following values might have more
success at less cost for government and individuals:
(1) all individuals and families should assume greater responsibility for
their own actions and the welfare of others
(2) neighborhoods and community groups should be brought more into the
-2-
solution of their own and others' problems
(3) improve the balance of prevention and control in domestic programs
(e.g., law enforcement weed and seed activity)
(4) receivers of public benefits should become stakeholders in their
programs (e.g., public housing tenant management).
(C) Urban Capacity Increase: The Reagan Administration adopted an urban
policy in its first term that sought to have state/local government and the
private sector assume more responsibility for local matters (e.g., crime,
housing). However, in spite of the economic strength during the 1980's in most
of the country, most states and local goverment failed to seize this opportunity
and many urban problems were not resolved to the extent possible. Infrastructure
repair or addition was often delayed as a means of saving money.
These urban problems could be helped by more jobs for urban residents through
programs such as Enterprise Zones that encouraged business or industry to
operate in central cities by maintaining maximum capital in these areas through
payrolls to residents and facility improvements with local vendors. This could
be encouraged by tax incentives (e.g., to investors, owners, workers),
deregulation (e.g., building and zoning codes, wage controls), and partnerships
on infrastructure improvement and operation between the private and public
sector.
PRESIDENTIAL LEADERSHIP
The solution to the above problems could be helped by positive Presidential
leadership that describes the situation as accurately as possible and which
suggests problem resolution through cooperative activity by governments, the
private sector and individuals. The above ideas are intended to be widely
popular SO that solution is possible regardless of which political party is in
power in Congress and state/local government. The ideas could have majority
acceptance of geographic areas and economic interests.
The President could point out that much of this activity will need concentrated
effort by all for at least four years to see if results are possible. With
movement into his second term, President Bush could have the political
independence to really make a difference and leave a massive positive legacy for
him and President Reagan.
The President and his surrogates could explain and discuss his plan to national
and local audiences during implementation. The President's other high priority
domestic and international agenda items can be considered and explained in the
context of this major initiative. The President could appoint a national
commission of government and private individuals to prepare initial
recommendations, explain the initiative and suggest needed changes over a four
year period.
-3-
29
Wood Duck
USA
C4 930 & B
Charles P. Smith
02 SEP
1.960 Tiara Dr.
1992
Ojai, CA 92023
The Honorable James A. Baker III
Chief-of-Staff
The White House
Washington, D.C. 20500
PERSONAL