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Originally Processed With FOIA(s): FOIA Number: 2025-0647-S 2025-0647-S FOIA MARKER This is not a textual record. This is used as an administrative marker by the George Bush Presidential Library Staff. Record Group/Collection: George H.W. Bush Presidential Records Collection/Office of Origin: Chief of Staff, White House Office of Series: Rogers, Ed, Files Subseries: Correspondence Files OA/ID Number: 03661 Folder ID Number: 03661-020b Folder Title: January 1991 [Memos][2] Stack: Row: Section: Shelf: Position: G 15 22 7 THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON January 15, 1991 MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT FROM: ED ROGERS EAR SUBJECT: MAYOR EMORY FOLMAR MONTGOMERY, ALABAMA Emory Folmar, who remains your "most forceful advocate on the planet", was recently named Citizen of the Year by "The Montgomery Advertiser" and "The Alabama Journal". He was Guy Hunt's Finance Chairman and chaired the Inauguration events last weekend. As an ardent Bush supporter, he's ready and willing to be called for 1992 duties. I thought you might like to see his Citizen of the Year coverage. Perhaps you would be willing to drop him a note? Thanks. THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON January 15, 1991 MEMORANDUM FOR PATTY PRESOCK FROM: ED ROGERS ZR SUBJECT: CAMP DAVID INVITEE Over the weekend I ran into Randy Owen, the lead singer for the rock group Alabama, and his manager at the Guy Hunt inauguration in Montgomery. Randy told me that sometime ago, he was invited to join the President at Camp David. Unfortunately, he was on tour at the time and unable to go. He was very upset at missing the visit. He asked me to make an appeal, or at least inquire about a possible future invitation. Please let me know if any follow-up is required. Thanks. THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON January 11, 1991 MEMORANDUM FOR GOVERNOR SUNUNU ROGER PORTER MICHAEL DELAND FROM: ED ROGERS ENERGY/ENVIRONMENT for STUDY SUBJECT: Vince Breglio wanted you to see this material. FYI. Thanks. Research/Strategy/Management ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND THE PUBLIC'S PRIORITIES Energy policy and environmental issues are the focus for this national study of 1,200 adults conducted jointly by the Washington, D.C., Republican and Democratic polling firms of Research/Strategy/Management Inc., and Greenberg/Lake, Inc. Personal interviews, completed by telephone, were conducted between the seventh and eleventh of December 1990. The margin of error for most reported aggregate results is plus or minus three percentage points. Project director for R/S/M, Inc., is Dr. Vincent J. Breglio; Ms. Celinda Lake is the project director for Greenberg/Lake, Inc. This study is the third in a series of national surveys on energy policy. Previous studies were conducted in October 1988 and November 1989 A QUICK LOOK AT KEY FINDINGS The following present a few of the most notable findings: 1. Reducing Oil Dependence. Offered alternative approaches for dealing with U.S. dependence on foreign oil supplies -- one based on increasing the oil supply through new exploration and development and the other based on reducing demand for fossil fuels through increased efficiency -- three out of four Americans believe reducing demand makes more sense than increasing supply. 2. Global Warming. Seven out of ten persons (69%) feel the United States should join now with other industrial countries and limit carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels released into the air rather than wait for more scientific evidence on the accuracy of global warming predictions. Three out of four persons (73%) say they would be willing to pay more for fossil fuels if the added cost is earmarked to prevent serious consequences from global warming. 1 Research/Strategy/Management 3. Automotive Energy Standards. Increasing federal fuel economy standards to 40 mpg by the year 2000 is not only popular (84% support it) but also represents a strongly held point of view (63% strongly favor versus only 6% strongly opposed) 1 Among those who favor the increase, 89% say they would still be in favor of higher fuel economy standards even if a new car cost the buyer $500 more as a result. 4. Energy Research Priorities. Americans continue to stress the development of renewable energy sources such as solar or wind as their top priority. Seventy-five percent (75%) would give it the largest or next largest share of Department of Energy's research dollar and more than half (59%) believe different energy sources such as solar and wind should be emphasized more than other strategies to meet America's energy needs for the future. Energy conservation runs a close second as a research priority with two out of three persons (67%) assigning it top shares of the Department's energy research budget. 5. Home/Building Energy Efficiency. Utilities should be encouraged to invest in energy efficiency improvements in their customers' homes and buildings. Clearly, nine out of ten persons (86%) favor requiring federal and state regulators to provide incentives to utilities for such improvements. A similar number (91%) favor requiring conformity to federal standards for energy efficiency for new homes financed by FHA or VA mortgages. 1. The ratio of strongly held positive opinion (strongly favor) to strongly held negative opinion (strongly oppose) is a measure of attitude intensity. In this case, the intensity of feeling on the question of fuel economy standards measures 10.5 to 1. Opinions expressed with intensity ratios equal to or larger than 4 should be noted. 2 Research/Strategy/Management 6. Other Energy Alternatives. Three additional energy policy alternatives stand out because of their broad appeal and high measure of favorable intensity. These include: * incentives to use or develop alternative fuels such as fuels produced from grains; * tax credits for consumers who use renewable energy sources such as solar or wind power; * tax rebates for new cars that get better mileage than the federal standard. Conversely, public opinion runs nearly as broad and strong in opposition to the following: * developing oil reserves off-shore or on publicly-owned land if this might cause some environmental damage; * using coal if this caused some environmental damage; * building more nuclear power plants. Additional highlights and findings from this national study are presented in the following sections. MOOD OF THE COUNTRY Anxious about conflicts abroad and disturbed by a slowdown in the economy at home, the year 1990 draws to a close with the majority of persons (57%) believing the country has gotten off on the wrong track. Few of the good feelings and positive expectations fueled by the remarkable events out of central and eastern Europe measured in last year's study remain intact. Indeed, a drop of seventeen points has occurred in the percentage of people who say the country is generally going in the right direction (47% to 30%). Still, George Bush receives overall job approval from a strong majority of Americans (60%). This represents an eight point decrease from his approval rating in our study one year ago (68% to 60%). On the national domestic agenda, improving education, reducing the deficit and providing affordable health care are mentioned most often as top priority items. Energy and environmental concerns are less salient in the thinking of most persons. For more detail on the mood of the country refer to Table 1. 3 Research/Strategy/Management TABLE 1 MOOD OF THE COUNTRY QUESTION: Do you feel things in the country are generally going in the right direction, or have things pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? Nation Northeast Midwest South West Right Direction 30 22 33 31 32 Wrong Track 57 66 54 56 52 Don't know/Refused 13 12 13 12 16 QUESTION: And, do you approve or disapprove of the way George Bush is handling his job as President? Nation Northeast Midwest South West Strongly Approve 25 18 28 27 26 Somewhat Approve 35 37 32 36 35 Somewhat Disapprove 16 19 18 13 16 Strongly Disapprove 14 19 10 14 16 Don't know/Refused 9 7 12 10 7 QUESTION: Other than the state of the economy, which of the following domestic goals would you say is the most/next most important for the President to address? (FIRST AND SECOND MENTION) Nation Northeast Midwest South West Provide more affordable 36 34 40 34 35 health care Reduce the federal 42 41 41 42 35 deficit Protect the 28 28 28 23 33 environment Improve the quality of 42 43 46 30 39 primary & secondary education Strengthen laws to crack 30 25 24 37 33 down on crime Develop dependable and 15 16 12 17 15 secure sources of energy Don't know/Refused 8 3 9 9 10 4 Research/Strategy/Management ENERGY CRISIS When asked specifically about their perceptions of our energy situation today, two out of three persons (67%) hold the view that even now we are entering a period of energy crisis -- with things like gasoline shortages, sharply higher prices and oil supply disruptions -- just as we did in the 1970's. This contrast with the relative low salience of energy on the national domestic agenda may be explained in part by perceptions of our confrontation with Iraq. The reason given most often as the best explanation of why the United States has troops aligned against Iraq is -- "to secure Middle East oil supplies for the U.S. and its allies" (50%). The perception that our foreign oil supplies are threatened is definitely related to the sense that the U.S. is entering a period of energy crisis. The confrontation with Iraq has also precipitated debate over the best way to take care of the nation's future energy needs. Some experts argue that the Iraq/Kuwait situation demonstrates the need to increase our oil supply by opening up domestic oil and gas exploration off the coasts and in natural wilderness areas. Other experts argue that it makes more sense to reduce demand by promoting fuel efficiency, car pooling and mass transportation. By the margin of three to one (75%), the public endorses the position of reduced demand over increased development. This position is favored by all subgroups. From a partisan perspective, all majority voter groups endorse reducing demand. It is least popular among conservative Democrats who are the most likely to support increasing production as their favored alternative. But even with this group, more than six out of ten favor reducing demand. For more detail on each of the above issues see Table 2. ENVIRONMENT, ENERGY AND THE FUTURE Americans are not optimistic that their environment will be better in the future than it is today. Four out of ten (40%) believe the quality of their environment will not be as good in just three years. Those in the West tend to be somewhat more pessimistic than others with nearly one out of two (46%) who think their environment will deteriorate over the next three years. Whatever the perception of the environment in future years, there is strong agreement that we need some changes from the status quo to meet America's energy needs. 5 Research/Strategy/Management TABLE 2 PROSPECTS OF AN "ENERGY CRISIS" QUESTION: Some people say the "energy crisis" like the United States experienced in the 1970's -- with things like gasoline shortages, sharply higher prices and oil supply disruptions -- will not happen again. Other people say even now we are entering a period of energy crisis just as we did in the 1970's. Which view is closer to your own? Nation Northeast Midwest South West Will not happen again 24 20 25 22 30 Entering a period of 67 73 66 68 61 crisis even now Don't know/Refused 9 7 9 10 9 QUESTION: The United States has stationed hundreds of thousands of troops in the Middle East. Which of the following reasons best explains why we are there: Nation Northeast Midwest South West Liberating Kuwait from 28 27 28 26 33 Iraqi occupation Secure Middle East oil 50 52 52 49 45 supplies for the U.S. and its allies Neutralize Iraq's 14 12 13 14 17 growing chemical and nuclear weapon capability Don't know/Refused 8 9 7 10 6 6 Research/Strategy/Management TABLE 2 (Con't) PROSPECTS OF AN "ENERGY CRISIS" QUESTION: Some people say the Iraq crisis demonstrates the need to increase our oil supply by opening up domestic oil and gas exploration off our coasts and in natural wilderness areas. Others say it makes more sense to reduce our demand for oil by requiring more fuel efficient cars, encouraging car pooling and promoting mass transit alternatives. Which point of view comes closest to your own opinion of what we ought to do? Nation Northeast Midwest South West Increase supply 21 22 19 26 15 Reduce demand 75 75 79 70 78 Don't Know/Refused 4 3 2 4 7 Conservative Mod/Liberal Conservative Mod/Liberal Republican Republican Democrat Democrat Increase supply 20 19 31 17 Reduce demand 76 79 65 79 Don't Know/Refused 3 2 3 3 7 Research/Strategy/Management To provide for energy in the future, six out of ten (59%) of those surveyed believe emphasis should be given to finding different energy sources such as solar and wind power. Finding ways to use less energy is the priority for one out of four persons (25%) while producing more oil, gas and coal is chosen by one in ten (11%) as the emphasis for the future of America's energy needs. Putting each respondent in the role of research and development budget allocator for the Department of Energy, reinforces the high priority placed on renewables. Nearly one out of two (47%) give renewables top priority funding over oil and coal, nuclear energy and energy conservation. Another three out of ten (28%) mention it as their number two priority. Following renewables closely in the public's allocation of energy research dollars, is energy conservation. Nearly three out of ten (28%) make it their top priority; while four out of ten (39%) place it second in budget priority. The high priority assigned to developing new or renewable sources of energy in this study is further supported by the two out of three (69%) who expect renewables will be providing at least some of our energy needs by the year 2000. One person in four (25%) expects that renewables can produce enough energy to meet a lot of our needs by that time. For more detail on these questions refer to Tables 3 and 4. GLOBAL WARMING Awareness of the global warming issue has grown from approximately six out of ten persons in the first study done in October of 1988 (58%), to eight out of ten persons in November of 1989 (79%), to nearly nine out of ten persons today (December 1990 - 86%). While awareness reaches a majority within all subgroups, it does vary as a function of exposure to print media. More affluent, well- educated persons have a higher level of awareness than less affluent, less well-educated persons. 8 Research/Strategy/Management TABLE 3 FUTURE ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY NEEDS QUESTION: Think for a minute about the quality of the environment in which you live. Everything considered, what do you think the quality of your environment will be like 3 years from now? Will it be better than it is today, about the same, or not as good as it is today? Nation Northeast Midwest South West Better than today 18 19 17 16 20 About the same 40 45 45 38 33 Not as good 40 34 36 43 46 Don't know/Refused 2 1 2 3 1 QUESTION: In order to help provide for the country's overall need for energy in the future, which do you think should be emphasized most? Nation Northeast Midwest South West Finding ways to produce 11 10 12 13 8 more oil, gas & coal Finding ways to use 25 22 26 25 27 less energy Finding different energy 59 63 59 55 60 sources such as solar and wind Don't know/Not Sure 5 5 4 7 5 QUESTION: When you think about America's energy needs in the future, what worries you most? Nation Northeast Midwest South West That it will cost too 23 23 26 24 19 much There will not be 21 22 15 25 20 enough to go around That producing it will 26 26 27 23 28 hurt the environment That national security 24 24 25 24 25 will be threatened by our dependence on foreign oil Don't know/Refused 6 3 8 4 7 9 Research/Strategy/Management TABLE 4 ENERGY RESEARCH PRIORITIES QUESTION: Suppose you were the person responsible for funding research and development in the Department of Energy. Four areas want your money for research and development - - oil and coal, nuclear energy, energy conservation and solar, wind and other renewable energy sources. Which of these four would you fund with the MOST money and which of these four would you fund with THE SECOND MOST money -- oil and coal, nuclear energy, energy conservation or solar, wind and other renewable energy sources? Mentioned As Mentioned as Mentioned as Top Funding Second Funding Last Funding Priority Priority Priority Oil and Coal 12 14 33 Nuclear 10 15 43 Energy Conservation 28 39 8 Renewables 47 28 9 Don't know/Refused 3 3 7 QUESTION: Think about renewable sources of energy such as solar or wind power. Can renewable energy sources produce enough energy to meet a lot of our energy needs, some of our needs, or only a little of our needs by the year 2000? Nation Northeast Midwest South West A Lot 25 26 23 25 28 Some 44 43 45 46 40 Little 24 25 24 21 25 Don't know/Refused 7 6 7 8 7 10 Research/Strategy/Management In our study of November 1989, seven out of ten persons felt that the United States must take the lead in fighting global warming. A repeat of this question in the current survey shows no change in opinion regarding the leadership role of this country. Again seven out of ten persons believe the U.S. should take the lead in fighting global warming. However, some circumstances have changed since the 1989 study. A number of industrial countries have made unilateral commitments to limit or reduce the levels of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels. The current Bush administration position stresses the uncertainty of scientific predictions of global warming and refuses to commit to any carbon dioxide limit until there is more evidence. When presented with the choice to join now with other countries and make a commitment to lowering carbon dioxide levels from fossil fuels or wait for more scientific evidence before making such a commitment, seven out of ten respondents (69%) choose action now. One out of four (27%) feel we should wait for more scientific evidence of global warming. The call for action now has a decidedly ideological tilt to it with fewer conservatives than moderates/liberals lining up to support it. Still, majorities within each partisan/ideological group opt to see the U.S. take action now. When asked how much more per month they would be willing to pay for fossil fuels to prevent global warming from having serious consequences, three persons out of four (77%) indicate a willingness to pay something. The median amount is nearly eleven dollars ($10.81). Table 5 provides more information on each of these questions. ENERGY EFFICIENCY The need to use energy more efficiently appears to be taken very seriously by the great majority of Americans (72%). Indeed, eight out of ten believe they can lower their energy bills by developing better energy habits or by investing in more energy efficient techniques and appliances. Among those who anticipate a saving, the median estimate of the decrease in utility bills is approximately 9% from developing better energy use habits and 10% from investing in more energy efficient techniques. The biggest perceived obstacle to making any changes leading to more efficiency is how much they cost. Listen to the verbatim comments of a few of those interviewed: "Money. When you don't have the money you can't do the job." "Cost. If something came along that was more efficient we couldn't afford it." 11 Research/Strategy/Management TABLE 5 GLOBAL WARMING QUESTION: Have you ever read and/or heard anything about global warming sometimes called the "greenhouse effect?" Nation Northeast Midwest South West Yes 86 89 89 80 91 No 13 11 10 19 9 Don't know/Refused 1 -- 1 1 -- QUESTION: Because the U.S. is the largest contributor of global warming gases, some have argued that the U.S. must take the lead in fighting global warming. Others have argued that the U.S. should wait until there is an international agreement for all nations to move together to fight this problem. Which of these two positions comes closest to your own view? Nation Northeast Midwest South West U.S. should take lead 68 71 67 67 68 U.S. should wait for 27 24 29 27 28 int'l agreement Don't know/Refused 5 5 4 7 4 12 Research/Strategy/Management TABLE 5 (Con't) GLOBAL WARMING QUESTION: Because of their concern about global warming, many industrial countries have recently made commitments to limit or reduce their amount of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels released into the air. The Bush Administration believes that scientific predictions of global warming are too uncertain and refuses to commit the U.S. to any such carbon dioxide limit. Do you believe the U.S. should join other industrial countries in committing to carbon dioxide emissions limits, or should we wait for greater scientific certainty before making such a commitment? Nation Northeast Midwest South West Join other countries 69 75 68 66 71 Wait for more evidence 26 22 27 29 26 Don't know/Refused 4 3 5 5 4 Conservative Mod/Liberal Conservative Mod/Liberal Republican Republican Democrat Democrat Join other countries 65 72 69 79 Wait for more evidence 29 26 29 18 Don't know/ Refused 6 2 2 2 QUESTION: Now suppose the price you pay for fossil fuels like coal, oil and natural gas had to go up to prevent global warming from having serious consequences, what is the maximum additional monthly cost you would be willing to pay: Nation Northeast Midwest South West Nothing 15 12 16 15 16 Less than $5 more 20 20 19 24 15 $5-$15 more 29 28 31 27 33 $15-$30 more 14 12 15 15 13 More than $30 14 20 14 10 15 Don't know/Refused 8 8 6 9 9 13 Research/Strategy/Management Cost is followed closely by lack of incentive or just being too lazy to get it done: "We could probably be more efficient in what we use already except that old habits are hard to break." "I'd say probably convenience; it's just what's available now is very easy, things like my TV and stereo." "Just resistent to change. I could wear more clothes and turn down the heat but I don't want to." On another topic related to energy efficiency, two out of three persons (66%) accept the view that using the electricity we have more efficiently could make it unnecessary to build new power plants in order to meet increased demand. Three out of ten (28%) disagree and would opt for constructing new power plants to satisfy demand. Based on respondent experience with their electric power companies, these organizations are rated above average for promoting energy efficiency. A plurality of all persons, more than four out of ten (42%), give their electric utility companies above average marks. Only one in five (22%) believe performance has been sub-par. Greater detail on the above topics may be found in Tables 6 and 7. NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY Public reaction to nineteen energy policy alternatives sharply contrasts the most and least favored options for a national energy agenda. Among the most popular of the alternatives focuses on increasing the federal fuel economy standard for auto companies to 40 miles to the gallon by the year 2000. More than eight out of ten persons (84%) support this policy change -- six out of ten (63%) strongly favor such action. Among those supporting the higher fuel economy standard, nine out of ten (89%) claim they would still support it even if a new car would cost the buyer $500 more. Majorities (53% in each case) also reject the statements that Detroit auto makers are doing their best to develop and sell to their customers fuel efficient cars that get more miles to the gallon than the present standard. Five additional alternative policies are both widely popular (favored by more than eight out of ten persons) and strongly supported (intensity ratio of strongly favor to strongly oppose plus six or greater). 14 Research/Strategy/Management TABLE 6 PERCEPTIONS OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY QUESTION: From what you have heard or read, how serious is the need to use energy more efficiently? Nation Northeast Midwest South West Very serious 72 73 66 75 75 Somewhat serious 25 23 30 22 24 Not serious 2 3 2 2 1 Don't know/Refused 1 1 2 1 I QUESTION: How much to do you think you could reduce your energy bill by developing better habits that you would be willing to do now? Nation Northeast Midwest South West Not at all 11 11 10 11 14 1-4% 26 27 29 27 19 5-9% 19 18 19 16 25 10-14% 18 20 17 16 19 15% or more 22 21 20 25 19 Don't know/Refused 4 4 4 4 4 QUESTION: And how much do you think that you could reduce your energy bill by investing in more energy efficient techniques? Nation Northeast Midwest South West Not at all 16 13 16 17 16 1-10% 42 41 47 37 45 11-20% 20 18 18 21 21 21-30% 9 8 9 11 7 More than 30% 8 13 6 8 6 Don't know/Refused 5 7 4 6 5 15 Research/Strategy/Management TABLE 6 (Con't) PERCEPTIONS OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY QUESTION: What are some of the things preventing you from making the changes leading to more efficient use of energy? Nation Northeast Midwest South West Doing all I can do now 34 34 36 32 35 Cost too much 29 32 29 28 27 Too lazy/Habit/Just 16 15 14 17 18 not convenient High cost of home 15 14 16 14 14 improvements Renting/Don't own home 8 8 6 8 9 Lack of knowledge 5 6 5 4 5 Can't car pool/Need 3 3 3 3 2 mass transit Can't afford fuel 2 2 2 1 2 efficient car Lack of time 2 2 2 2 2 Energy efficient 2 1 3 - 2 products not available Americans need to 2 1 1 2 1 commit to energy conservation 16 Research/Strategy/Management TABLE 7 ELECTRICAL POWER QUESTION: Some say new power plants must be built in the next several years to meet increased demand or we will have power shortages in many places. Others say that using the electricity we have more efficiently could make it unnecessary to build new power plants. Which point of view is closest to your own? Nation Northeast Midwest South West Build new power plants 28 28 26 31 28 More efficient use of 66 65 69 63 67 electricity Don't know/Refused 6 7 5 6 5 QUESTION: From your own experience, do you think your electric utility company is doing an excellent, above average, below average or poor job in promoting energy efficiency? Nation Northeast Midwest South West Excellent 13 12 8 15 16 Above average 29 28 31 28 28 Average (Do not read) 34 33 36 33 31 Below average 11 9 10 11 13 Poor 11 12 11 11 9 Don't know/Refused 3 5 3 2 3 17 Research/Strategy/Management The five policy options are: * Requiring new homes financed by FHA and VA mortgages to meet federal standards for energy efficiency; * Providing incentives to use or develop alternative fuels, such as fuels produced from grains; * Re-establishing federal tax credits for consumers who use renewable energy sources such as solar or wind power; * Requiring federal and state regulators to provide incentives to utilities for investing in energy efficiency improvements in their customers' homes and buildings. * Providing a tax rebate for new cars that get better mileage than the federal standard. At the other extreme, opposition to "Adding a federal gas tax of $.50 per gallon phased in over several years and earmarked for an environmental trust fund" and "Building more nuclear power plants in the United States" runs both wide (more than six out of ten oppose) and deep (intensity ratio of nearly four to one in strong opposition). Strong opposition to the $.50 per gallon gas tax relaxes to moderate support for a $.10 per gallon federal gas tax. A majority of persons (56%) favor adding a federal gas tax of $.10 per gallon earmarked for an environmental trust fund. However, the intensity ratio of 1.0 suggests an equal balance of strong opposition and support for such action. Energy policy alternatives associated with the possibility of environmental damage drives opposition to exceptionally high levels. More than seven out of ten people oppose (approximately half strongly oppose) the following options: * Developing oil reserves on publicly-owned wilderness lands, even if this caused some environmental damage; * Opening more off-shore areas along both coasts to oil drilling, even if this caused some environmental damage; * Increasing use of coal even if this caused some environmental damage. Tables 8, 9 and 10 provide additional information on the full range of energy policy alternatives tested. 18 Research/Strategy/Management TABLE 8 FUEL ECONOMY STANDARDS AND PUBLIC OPINION QUESTION: Federal fuel economy standards require that auto companies produce cars that, on average, get 27.5 miles per gallon. Would you favor or oppose an increase in federal fuel economy standards for auto companies requiring that cars, on average, get 40 miles to the gallon by the year 2000? Nation Northeast Midwest South West Strongly favor 63 63 61 61 68 Somewhat favor 21 23 22 23 14 Somewhat oppose 7 7 9 5 10 Strongly oppose 6 4 6 6 6 Don't know/Refused 3 3 2 5 2 QUESTION: Would you still favor this proposal if you knew that a new car would cost the buyer $500 more? Nation Northeast Midwest South West Yes, still favor 89 90 90 89 87 No, change mind 9 9 9 10 10 Don't know/Refused 2 1 1 1 2 QUESTION: "Detroit auto makers are doing their best to develop fuel efficient cars that get more miles to the gallon than the current federal standard of 27.5." Nation Northeast Midwest South West Strongly agree 13 10 13 15 13 Somewhat agree 26 25 26 26 27 Somewhat disagree 20 20 19 20 18 Strongly disagree 33 36 36 30 32 Don't know/Refused 8 9 6 8 10 QUESTION: "Detroit auto makers are doing their best to sell customers fuel efficient cars that get more miles to the gallon than the current federal standard of 27.5." Nation Northeast Midwest South West Strongly agree 14 13 13 14 15 Somewhat agree 24 22 23 29 19 Somewhat disagree 21 22 22 20 21 Strongly disagree 32 32 34 29 33 Don't know/Refused 9 11 8 7 11 19 Research/Strategy/Management TABLE 9 NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY: OIL AND GAS POLICY ALTERNATIVES (Ranked from Most Favored to Least Favored) STRNG SMWHT SMWHT STRNG DON'T INTEN. RANK QUESTION FAVOR FAVOR OPPOSE OPPOSE KNOW 1 Providing incentives to 65 24 5 3 3 21.7 use or develop alterna- tive fuels such as fuels produced from grains. 2 Increasing 63 21 7 6 3 10.5 federal fuel economy standards for auto companies requiring that cars, on average, get 40 mpg by the year 2000. 3 Providing a tax rebate 52 30 8 8 2 6.5 for new cars that get better mileage than the federal standard. 4 Providing a cash benefit 34 38 11 14 3 2.4 for scrapping older, less fuel efficient cars. 5 Adding a tax penalty on 39 23 14 21 3 1.9 new cars getting fewer miles to the gallon than the federal standard. 6 Adding a federal gas tax 23 33 17 24 3 1.0 of $.10 per gallon ear- marked for an environmental trust fund. 7 Imposing a tax on all 21 29 21 25 4 .8 crude oil imported into / the U.S. 20 Research/Strategy/Management TABLE 9 (Con't) NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY: OIL AND GAS POLICY ALTERNATIVES (Ranked from Most Favored to Least Favored) STRNG SMWHT SMWHT STRNG DON'T INTEN. RANK QUESTION FAVOR FAVOR OPPOSE OPPOSE KNOW 8 Providing tax breaks to 17 33 17 29 3 .6 oil companies for the exploration and develop- ment of new oil and natural gas wells. 9 Accelerating oil develop- 18 29 17 29 7 .6 ment in the wilderness areas of Alaska's North Slope. 10 Adding a federal gas tax 12 25 18 42 2 .3 of $.50 per gallon phased in over several years and earmarked for an environ- mental trust fund. 11 Opening more off-shore 8 17 21 51 2 .2 areas along both coasts to oil drilling, even if this caused some environmental damage. 12 Developing oil reserves 5 14 21 58 2 .1 on publicly owned wilderness lands, even if this caused some environmental damage. 21 Research/Strategy/Management TABLE 10 NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY: OTHER POLICY ALTERNATIVES (Ranked from Most Favored to Least Favored) STRNG SMWHT SMWHT STRNG DON'T INTEN. RANK QUESTION FAVOR FAVOR OPPOSE OPPOSE KNOW 1 Requiring new homes 68 23 4 4 1 17.0 financed by FHA & VA mortgages to meet federal standards for energy efficiency. 2 Re-establishing feder- 54 32 7 6 2 9.0 al tax credits for consumers who use re- newable energy sources such as solar or wind power. 3 Requiring federal and 51 35 6 5 3 10.2 state regulators to provide incentives to utilities for investing in energy efficiency improvements in their customers homes and buildings. 4 Expanding federal 47 33 8 9 3 5.2 spending on mass public transportation systems such as buses and subways. 5 Providing federal funds 43 31 11 13 2 3.3 to encourage car pooling. 6 Building more 12 20 20 42 5 .3 nuclear power plants in the United States. 7 Increasing use of coal 7 17 29 45 2 .2 even if this caused some environmental damage. 22 Research/Strategy/Management SUMMARY With anxiety fueled by a recession at home and the threat of war abroad, Americans end the first year of the new decade on a pessimistic note. The confrontation with Iraq over the future of Kuwait and the perception that this confrontation is a response to a threatened foreign oil supply, help produce the concern that the U.S. is, even now, entering a period of energy crisis not unlike the one experienced in the 1970's. Along with that concern comes strong public opinion support for steps that will save gasoline: * Federal fuel standards that require 40 mpg by the year 2000; * The development of alternative fuels from grains; * Tax rebates on new cars that exceed the current federal fuel standards. Public opinion is equally as strong in support of steps that will provide for our long-term energy needs without damaging the environment: * Developing energy from renewable sources; * Avoiding drilling in wilderness areas and off-shore sites where environmental damage is likely; * Placing more emphasis on energy efficiency -- saving what we have -- rather than increasing exploration and development. Public opinion will not dictate policy -- nor should it. But public support or opposition to possible alternative policy choices must be considered as part of the process by planners and decision- makers crafting a national energy policy. 23 THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON Date: January 11, 1991 FOR: JOHN KELLER FROM: ED ROGERS Action Your Comment Let's Talk XXX FYI Kathy Super has the original request. THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON Date: January 11, 1991 FOR: KATHY SUPER FROM: ED ROGERS XX Action - all yours Your Comment Let's Talk FYI I've sent a copy to John Keller. AMERICAN EXPRESS AMERICAN EXPRESS COMPANY AMERICAN EXPRESS TOWER, WORLD FINANCIAL CENTER. NEW YORK. NY 10285-5100 JAMES D. ROBINSON, III CHAIRMAN January 7, 1991 Dear Mr. President: New economic studies show that travel and tourism is a major economic force and a key generator of jobs, taxes, and gross national product for many countries. At $2 trillion, travel and tourism is the world's largest industry employing more than 101 million people around the globe. Still, the industry is often overlooked when decision-makers are developing important national economic and social policies. To address these problems, the chief executive officers of the world's largest travel and tourism companies recently created a new coalition called the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC). The WTTC is holding its second annual meeting this spring, in Washington, D.C. this time. We would be honored if you would be able to address the group at any point during the meeting. From our standpoint, the best time would be at lunch on Monday, April 8. Of course, we would be privileged indeed if you are able to stay for lunch. The members would welcome your thoughts on any priority of your choosing. Certainly, any views you might care to make on the importance of travel and tourism to the United States and your insights on ways we can face the economic challenges that lie ahead would be particularly important. For your consideration, I have enclosed the proposed agenda for the meeting, and background on the WTTC. We would be pleased to work with your advisors in any way possible to handle arrangements and preparations for your visit. Linda joins me in sending you and Barbara best wishes for a happy and healthy New Year. Most respectfully, for The Honorable George Bush President of the United States bcc G. Lipman The White House T. Zanzotto 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue N.W. S. Richardson Washington, DC 20500 S. Susman AMERICAN EXPRESS AMERICAN EXPRESS COMPANY AMERICAN EXPRESS TOWER, WORLD FINANCIAL CENTER, NEW YORK, N.Y. 10285-5100 JAMES D. ROBINSON, III CHAIRMAN January 7, 1991 Dear John: I am enclosing a copy of a letter I have sent to President Bush inviting him to speak to the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC), at our annual meeting which will be held in Washington, D.C., April 7- - 9, 1991. The President is asked to deliver the meeting's keynote address at lunch on April 8. We would, of course, try to accommodate his schedule in any way possible at other times during the meeting. There are a few points regarding this meeting that I would like to mention, for your information: In the U.S., travel and tourism is a $160 billion dollar industry and growing. It is our single largest export and is expected to produce a $5 billion trade surplus in 1990. By showing his support for travel and tourism, the President would be sending an important, positive economic message. The WTTC is the only global coalition with CEO-level representation that brings together the full breadth of the travel and tourism industry. The members are business leaders in their respective countries and, in some cases, around the world. The global nature of the WTTC, makes it an ideal audience to receive some of the President's key foreign policy messages. ../.. John Sununu January 7, 1991 If it is helpful, we would be delighted to visit the White House rather than ask the President to travel elsewhere in the City. I would greatly appreciate any assistance you could provide in arranging for the President's participation in this event. If you need any additional information or would like to discuss this personally, please give me a call. Best wishes for a happy and healthy New Year. Sincerely, Jan The Honorable John H. Sununu Chief of Staff Executive Office of the President 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20500 bcc: G. Lipman T. Zanzotto S. Richardson S. Susman World PRELIMINARY AGENDA Travel & 1991 ANNUAL MEETING Tourism Council Sunday, April 7 4:00 - 6:00 PM Executive Committee meeting 7:00 PM Cocktails 8:00 PM Dinner Monday, April 8 8:30 AM Chairman's Report James D. Robinson III 9:00 - 10:00 AM World Overview: Economic and Political Changes Peter Jennings* 10:00 - 10:15 AM Break 10:15 - 11:15 AM Global Tourism Development Speaker or two-member panel 11:15 - 11:45 AM WTTC Global Policy Development 11:45 AM - 12:15 PM Break 12:15 - 2:00 PM Lunch President George Bush* Keynote Address: Travel and Tourism's Role in the Economy 2:00 - 3:00 PM The International Travel Market Asia: Robert H. Burns Europe: Sir Colin Marshall/Paul Dubrule The Americas: Robert L. Crandall 3:00 - 3:15 PM Break 3:15 - 3:30 PM International Travelers in the American Economy (video) 3:30 - 4:30 PM Tourism/Transportation in the U.S. Speaker or two-member panel 4:30 - 5:30 PM WTTC U.S. Policy Development 8:00 PM Gala - 2 - - Tuesday, April 9 9:00 - 9:30 AM Presentation of WTTC Business Plan, Action Agenda and Research Geoffrey Lipman 9:30 - 9:50 AM Membership Discussion 9:50 - 10:20 AM Tourism Message in the Major Media Tom Johnson, CNN* 10:20 - 10:40 AM Break 10:40 - 11:15 AM The Future of Tourism: Innovation in Travel 11:15 AM - 12:00 PM Issues Round-Up 12:00 - 1:00 PM Press Conference Executive Committee * To be invited THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON January 10, 1991 MEMORANDUM FOR HENSON MOORE FROM: ED ROGERS ZR. SUBJECT: BRUCE ZANCA I have it on good authority that Bruce Zanca is coming over to see you next week. I want you to know that Bruce comes highly recommended. He's well-known as a sincere, honest, capable worker; he's cut a wide path for himself here at the White House. I've known Bruce personally for 10 years - he was a trainee of mine way back during Advance days. In short, Bruce would be a credit to any organization, and I know he would be a strong member of your team. Please feel free to call me, as I welcome any questions you may have. Thanks. ! FOR: THE WHITE HOUSE FYY X X X Let's Talk Your Comment Action FROM: ED ROGERS WASHINGTON Date: January 10, 1991 MICHAEL BOSKIN Date: January 10, 1991 THE WHITE HOUSE ROGER PORTER FOR: WASHINGTON FROM: ED ROGERS Action Your Comment Let's Talk XXIX FYI Frank P. Doyle General Electric Company Senior Vice President 3135 Easton Turnpike, Fairfield, CT 06431 203 373-2587 January 8, 1991 Mr. Edward M. Rogers Deputy Assistant to the President and Executive Assistant to the Chief of Staff The White House Washington, D.C. 20500 Dear Mr. Rogers: I am writing to strongly urge that the Administration sustain the turnaround in U.S. export finance as the FY'92 budget requests are finalized. With exports performing strongly in an otherwise recessionary environment, the need to further strengthen the Exim Bank's direct loan and guarantee programs has never been more crucial or urgent. As you know, the appropriation for the Exim direct loan program was increased in FY'91 for the first time in nearly a decade. That positive turnaround was caused, I believe, by several interlocking factors: First, the recognition of substantial small and medium business participation in the program, either directly or indirectly as subcontractors. Second, the productivity and cost-competitiveness gains of U.S. industry across the Eighties that allow us to compete more effectively on quality and price (while often still losing in the face of superior credit terms offered by our competitors.) Third, the emergence of substantial capital goods export opportunities for U.S. companies to export capital goods to the reforming economies of Eastern Europe and to the recovering economies of Latin American. Finally, the need to boost exports in order to avert a recession became a compelling argument in the second half of 1990. Mr. Edward M. Rogers - 2 - January 8, 1991 Although each of these arguments proved persuasive with Congress last year, the last point is the most critical in our view right now. The recent Commerce Department report points out that U.S. exports grew by 7% or $25 billion in the first 10 months of 1990, while accounting for about 70% of total U.S. economic growth during the first three-quarters of the year. The report projects stronger economic growth in Europe and Asia in 1991 than in the U.S., along with expanding export opportunities for U.S. firms. Although much of this growth will come in countries not eligible for Exim participation, substantial opportunities for American manufacturing exporters are expected in the developing markets that are eligible and where our trade competitors offer aggressive financing support. I know that the Administration will want to present the most powerful recession-fighting and export-promoting set of budget requests it can next month. That can be accomplished by establishing a net outlay budget for the Bank (under the new credit reform proposals) which will allow a further increase above the current $750 million in combined Exim direct loan and war chest authority. Authority of $1 billion should be requested for that function in FY'92, along with guarantees and insurance authority at least equal to the $10.6 billion appropriation for FY'91. I urge you and the Administration to take the lead on behalf of U.S. export growth right now when the nation's economy needs that growth most. Sincerely, 26mg Frank P. Doyle THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON January 10, 1991 MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT FROM: ED ROGERS zeR R SUBJECT: JOHN SEYMOUR PHOTO-OP/MEETING FYI, during your session with John Seymour this morning, he will probably make the following requests: O 2 Presidential fundraisers; O 2 First Lady fundraisers; and O a piece of direct mail. He has already spoken to me about the above. He has been assured that he would be a big part of our overall political plans once they're finalized. THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON Date: January 9, 1991 FOR: DAVID CARNEY FROM: ED ROGERS Action Your Comment Let's Talk XXX FYI FROM THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON. D.C. The Honorable Rhona Charbonneau Chairman New Hampshire Republican Party 102 Old Derry Road Hudson, New Hampshire 03051 THE PRESIDENT January 7, 1991 Dear Rhona, Barbara came back from New Hampshire, all Fired swearing in. She told we of up, having enjoyed Judd's your very supportive wovels I just want to thank you very much indual. Keep up the good woul. bcc: Governor Sununu Ed Rogers Jan Burmeister Warnest Regards, Bridget Montagne Cy Bl THE HONORABLE AND MRS. MELDRIM THOMSON (GALE) Former Governor of New Hampshire THE HONORABLE AND MRS. WALTER PETERSON (DOROTHY) Former Governor of New Hampshire THE HONORABLE AND MRS. LANE DWINNELL (BETTY) MS. RHONA CHARBONNEAU Chairman, New Hampshire Republican Party This lads told we she was all In you. THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DATE: January 9, 1991 TO: SUSAN PORTER ROSE FROM: ED ROGERS The attached is a very worthwhile opportunity. I think the First Lady should do - assuming her schedule permits. Thanks. CC: David Carney THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON TO: Ed Rocers FROM: SUSAN PORTER ROSE Chief of Staff to Mrs. Bush 456-2957 For Your Information For Your Action For Your Files As Requested For Your Comments and Suggestions Let's Discuss Please Return Jan - 99 Symington The Hon. Barry Goldwater Honorary Chairman December 14, 1990 Mrs. Barbara Bush Office of the First Lady The White House 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington, D.C. 20500 Dear Mrs. Bush: My wife, Ann, and I are facing a very unusual political situation. We have been campaigning for a year and a half and won more votes than our opponent on November 6th. But it's not over yet. Because of Arizona law, we're in a runoff election which will be held February 26th. Our November 6th win overturned the expectations of all the experts and we are now capitalizing on the momentum we've garnered. While we're not sure exactly how this unique election will work, we are committed to continuing our vigorous campaign schedule. Just as you had a vigorous campaign schedule for your husband and were a great asset to him, Ann has won the hearts of hundreds of voters around the state. Ann and I would be very grateful if you could schedule a visit to Arizona and join Ann in some campaign appearances in Phoenix and Tucson during the last half of January. Ann is a certified teacher and has a deep interest in some of the same issues you so successfully promote. I'm sure we could include some interesting stops on your schedule. On the political front, we need to work hard to increase our percentage of the women's vote, and to do so we are planning some special events for women. If your schedule permits you to visit Arizona, we will schedule a conference of women leaders of Arizona and will be pleased to have you address them. Post Office Box 16347 Phoenix, Arizona 85011-6347 602-468-1990 Paid for by the Symington '90 Committee Letter to Mrs. Barbara Bush Page 2 It would be a great honor for Ann and me if you will accept our invitation to join us in Arizona in January. Best wishes to you and your family from the Symington family. Sincerely, F pl Fife Symington FS/doc CC: Ms. Susan Porter-Rose Ms. Cathy Hutchinson Mr. David Carney THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON Date: January 8, 1991 FOR: GREGG PETERSMEYER FROM: ED ROGERS Action - - all yours! Your Comment Let's Talk FYI THE DIRECTOR OF THE UNITED STATES PEACE CORPS WASHINGTON January 3, 1991 MEMORANDUM OF RECORD TO: Mr. Edward M. Rogers Executive Assistant to the Chief of Staff FROM: Paul D. Coverdell erdell RE: Major Private Sector Contribution for Central Europe In February 1990, the Liberty Bell Foundation of Fort Washington, Pennsylvania, approached the United States Peace Corps with an idea to help people in need, generate good will and peace among nations and to stress the importance of democracy and education within a democracy. The principal, Mr. Ed Piszek, has visited Poland extensively and discovered the same government request that Peace Corps had discovered, i.e., a tremendous need for the instruction of English. Initially, the Liberty Bell Foundation planned to develop an English-teaching program of its own. However, after hearing the President announce that the Peace Corps would be entering Central Europe and would be providing volunteer English teachers in response to the host government's needs, they determined that their goals and those of the Peace Corps were similar and could be better reached through support of Peace Corps programs already in existence. As the Polish need for English instructors far surpasses the number that have already been sent by the Peace Corps, the Foundation plans to augment those numbers. In June 1990, the Peace Corps sent sixty Volunteers to Poland and another sixty to Hungary. In November, the Liberty Bell Foundation determined that the need was so great and so immediate for this program that they have donated $1.2 million for an additional sixty Volunteers to be trained, staffed and placed by September of 1991. This long term commitment and donation is precedent setting for the Peace Corps. It is the first time that the Peace Corps has had augmented funding from the private sector to increase its Volunteer levels over its thirty year history. In the past, Peace Corps has received support from the private sector so that Volunteers could construct schools, clinics, etc. It has also received in-kind gifts over the years computers, seeds, health products. It has never received funding to allow it to increase the number of American volunteers who could go overseas to meet important needs. Hence, this is a first, and obviously a very significant first. The Liberty Bell Foundation plans to ask others in the private sector to join them in this mission, calling on individuals, foundations, corporations and associations. They have a goal of raising $12 million, so that the program can be replicated throughout Central and Eastern Europe and then on to Africa, Asia, or wherever English literacy is desired. Because this donation is so precedent-setting and deals with the President's call for citizens to be of assistance in Central Europe, we hope you would agree that it meets the criteria for a point of light and that you could consider a request that the President participate in acknowledging this point of light at the White House. I look forward to responding to any questions you may have regarding this breakthrough. Currently we are anticipating announcing this contribution in Washington, New York, Philadelphia and Chicago on January 8, 1991. We would be more than pleased to alter the timing of the Washington announcement to fit the White House schedule if desired. THE DIRECTOR OF THE UNITED STATES PEACE CORPS WASHINGTON January 3, 1991 The Honorable Andrew L. Lewis Chairman Union Pacific Corporation 1170 8th Avenue Bethlehem, Pennsylvania 18018 Dear Drew: Since our meeting at your office on May 2, 1990, to discuss how to marshal American support for Central European democracies, much ground has been covered -- much of it in the direction outlined that day. Knowing the size of the task, I was elated at the announcement that you would be Chairman of the Citizens Democracy Corps. On January 11, you and I are now scheduled to sign a Memorandum of Agreement to enable the Citizens Democracy Corps and Peace Corps to work together in Romania. Since the President's announcement in May, I have looked forward to building a relationship with CDC, for our goals are similar and the challenges so great they demand our close cooperation. The Romania Agreement should be only the beginning. On behalf of Peace Corps, I wish to offer any information and assistance CDC would find useful as you establish your efforts in Central and Eastern Europe, particularly in Poland, Hungary and the Czech and Slovak Federal Republic. Our staffs in those nations are available to share ideas and knowledge with your representatives. At the end of January, our Central and Eastern European staff members will meet in Budapest to share their experiences to date and to plan for the future. The information, ideas and energy of that conference would benefit any CDC representative who could attend. As I read your draft Operations Plan, the guiding principles are all compatible with Peace Corps' efforts. While Peace Corps Volunteers serve for two years and your Volunteers will serve for shorter periods, it may well develop that CDC Volunteers and assistance will become catalysts for longer term Peace Corps projects. Peace Corps itself has an Office of Private Sector Relations, which responds to the interests of the private sector in supporting Peace Corps' initiatives. Our programs in Central and Eastern Europe have prompted the most generous response in Peace Corps history. For example, The Liberty Bell Foundation of Pennsylvania has granted us $1,200,000 to increase the number of our Volunteers in Poland, and it hopes to do more. We have also recently received new books worth $1,500,000 to be used in literacy programs. The concern of the American people for the area of the world CDC will serve is great, but we both know how much must be done for both our organizations to channel assistance effectively. I look forward to seeing you on the 11th and hope you have enjoyed a happy holiday season. Sincerely, Day Paul D. Coverdell PDC/kh CC: The Honorable Lawrence S. Eagleburger Deputy Secretary of State THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON Date: January 8, 1991 DAVID CARNEY FOR: FROM: ED ROGERS Action Your Comment Let's Talk XXX FYI THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON TO: Ed FROM: LAURIE FIRESTONE Social Secretary to the White House x7064 Information Action This is unbelienable Lauice America's Political Action Committee 710 Pine Street Herndon, VA 22070 Board of Directors CHAIRMAN James B. Taylor 10 December 1990 Herndon, VA TREASURER Michael Boos Reston, VA Mr. Walter S. Kiebach Ronald Pearson 555 Island Drive Alexandria, VA Palm Beach, Florida 33480 Ron Robinson Reston, VA Dear Mr. Kiebach: George Bush must go! That was the overwhelming consensus of a group of conservative and Republican leaders who met this past weekend in Easton Maryland. And I was one of them. Like me, most members of this group had served in the Reagan administration and worked very hard to elect George Bush in 1988. But now all of us believe he must be challenged in the Republican primary and removed as the standard bearer of our party. For the simple reason that he no longer represents Republican standards and beliefs. And because deep in his heart he has contempt for conservatives. Mr. Kiebach, do I have to remind you of what George Bush has done in his two years in office. George Bush performed one of the biggest betrayals in American political history when he went back on his pledgee not to raise taxes. Mr. Kiebach - Page Two In doing this he betrayed every one of us who worked for him and voted for him. He betrayed the legacy of Ronald Reagan. What's more, he took away from Republicans the most important issue that divided us from Democrats in the eyes of voters. If George Bush had kept his pledge Republicans would have gained two or three seats in the Senate instead of losing one in the recent election. Instead of losing nine House seats we would have gained eight to twelve. George Bush encouraged Congress to sneak through an outrageous pay raise for itself and the Federal bureaucracy. He invited terrorist Nelson Mandela to the White House. He has done nothing to stop the National Endowment for the Arts (NEA) from spending our tax money on art that smears our religion and sullies our flag. He has invited homosexuals to the White House while keeping conservatives at arms length. And he and his White House staff of moderates have decided they can work more easily with the Democrat majority in Congress than with Republicans. In fact, Mr. Kiebach, George Bush's White House treats Republicans like dirt! For these reasons I believe that George Bush no longer has a claim on our loyalty as Republicans or conservatives. This is what the conservative leaders and activists meeting in Maryland almost unanimously believe. Mr. Kiebach - Page Three It was also felt that conservatives should begin now to find a Republican candidate who will challenge George Bush in 1992. There was no agreement on who that candidate might be. Names mentioned included Pat Buchanan, Bob Dole, Pete Dupont, Jack Kemp, Alexander Haig and Pat Robertson. What do you think, Mr. Kiebach? Do you think we should dump George Bush? Who do you think should be the candidate? I'd like your opinion on the enclosed poll. I'll be frank. I want Bush out of there. And my preferences run to Pat Buchanan or Jack Kemp. In fact I intend to commit America's PAC during the forthcoming year to dumping George Bush and getting behind a candidate who will replace him. I believe it is America's PAC's responsibility as a conservative group to undertake this task. Because George Bush seriously undermined our efforts to elect conservatives in the last election, America's PAC has a responsibility to see that he does our cause no further harm. Mr. Kiebach, if you agree that George Bush should be replaced, I need your help. America's PAC will mount its Bush removal campaign in late December. Mr. Kiebach Page Four We will start with a report on the Bush presidency and how it has betrayed Republican principles. This report will be issued by America's PAC at a press conference held in Washington. After that we will begin the process of informing conservatives and Republicans on the sins of his administration and building support for his defeat in the Republican primary in 1992. This campaign will require your help. Will you help me, Mr. Kiebach? Will you please send America's PAC a contribution of $250, $100, $75, $50, $35, or $25? Whatever you send will be used to see that a conservative replaces George Bush in 1992. If we are going to save our party and our movement we must begin now. If we are ever going to continue the good work that Ronald Reagan started, I will need your immediate help. Please let me hear from you today. JamoB James Sincerely, B. Taylor Jaya Chairman P.S.: Don't forget to fill out our Presidential Preference Poll on the enclosed reply page. Thank you. 10 December 1990 Mr. Walter S. Kiebach 555 Island Drive Palm Beach, Florida 33480 Dear Mr. Taylor: To help America's PAC begin the campaign to replace George Bush I enclose a donation of: $ 250 $ 50 $ 100 $ 35 $ 75 $ 25 Other Please make check payable to America's PAC 1992 Republican Presidential Poll Question #1: Do you believe conservatives should work to replace George Bush in 1992? Yes No Question #2: Mr. Kiebach, please indicate below your choice of a Republican to replace George Bush in 1992 by putting the number "1" next to your first choice, the number #2, next to your second, and so on. Pat Buchanan Alexander Haig Bob Dole Jack Kemp Pete Dupont Pat Robertson A favorite not listed: Political contributions are not deductible for income tax purposes but they are the only way to win elections. PC THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DATE: January 7, 1991 TO: EDE HOLIDAY FROM: ED ROGERS Is Hancock right on this? Please let me know. Thanks. Dec. 21 '90 13:26 9999 HANCOCK LUMBER CASCO TEL1-207-627-7041 PAGE 02 K. David Hancock Hancock Lumber Company, Inc. Chairman P.O. Box 299 Casco, Maine 04015 Tel. 207-627-4201 December 20, 1990 Ms. Jackie Kennody Office of the Chief of Staff The White House Washington, DC 20500 Dear Ms. Kennedy: I hope this letter finds you well and enjoying the holiday scason. I am writing to renew our acquaintance from this past summer when I talked with you and Covernor Sununu at the suggestion of John Stabile. I would like to draw your attention to a newly emerging aspect of the spotted owl issue that we discussed this summer. You will recall that you and I talked about the owl issue just before my conversations with Governor Sununu. You helped me present the industry's views to the governor most persuasively. It has recently come to our attention that the proposed U.S. Forest Service FY 1992 budget request for timber management in Oregon and Washington will provide for a FY 1992 timber sale program of 2.6 billion board feet of volume. This is precisely the amount of volume that could be offered il the Agency is forced to follow the requirements of the Interagency Scientific Committee Report (the so called "Thomas Committee" Plan) for the conservation of the owl. This plan was the subject of considerable critcism as being "unbalanced", and resulted in the formation of the President's Task Force on the spotted owl whose deliberations we followed closely over the summer. The Task Force indicated that the Thomas plan would not be adopted, and called upon Congress to work with the Administration to produce a more balanced proposal. We hope that the Administration is not now abandoning this view and accepting the Forest Service FY 1992 budget proposal currently before the President for approval. Announcing a 2.6 billion board feet timber sale program for FY 1992 as part of the Administration's budget proposal would have exactly such a result. I bring this matter to your and Governor Sununu's attention in the hope that the broader policy implications of this budget proposal will not be overlooked in the very difficult struggle over balancing the federal budget (particularly since timber sales generate revenue). Clearly, there are bigger issues at stake, including the Administration's stated commitment to find a balanced solution that preserves both timber jobs and the spotted owl. Dec. 21 '90 13:27 9999 HANCOCK LUMBER CASCO TEL1-207-627-7041 PAGE 03 Ms. Jackie Kennedy page 2 I appreciate the opportunity to offer you these views. Please call me if I can be of any assistance in this matter. Best wishes for the Holiday Season. Sincerely, Dave Hancock K. David Hancock Chairman KDH: WSS THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON Date: January 4, 1991 FOR: EDE HOLIDAY FROM: ED ROGERS Action Your Comment Let's Talk XXX FYI 200315 STEVE GUNDERSON 227 CANNON HOUSE OFFICE BUILDING 30 DISTRICT. WISCONSIN WASHINGTON. DC 20515-4903 202-225-5506 CHIEF DEPUTY WHIP TDD ACCESSIBLE MEMBER: DISTRICT OFFICE AGRICULTURE COMMITTEE P.O. Box 247 EDUCATION AND LABOR Congress of the United States 438 NORTH WATER STREET COMMITTEE BLACK RIVER FALLS. WI 54615-0247 1-800-472-6612 house of Representatives 715-284-7431 TDD ACCESSIBLE lashington, DC 20515-4903 TO: John Sununu ER - INFO FR: Steve Gunderson RE: The Labor Agenda for the 102nd Congress As Bill Ford takes over the leadership of the House Education and Labor Committee, all signals point to the most aggressive labor agenda in decades. Organized labor has long waited for his movement to the top spot in order that they might aggressively pursue labor's agenda. The Democratic leadership clearly understands the importance of the 1992 elections to their future at both the White House and control of the House of Representatives. They understand it is supposed to be a realignment election. Accordingly, it is clear they will strategize to drive a wedge between working class Americans and the Republican Party. It is especially important for them that the Reagan Democrats come home in 1992. Accordingly, we will see class-based fights unlike anything we have experienced in years, beginning with the millionaires tax. To their credit, an agenda to pursue these goals did not just happen. They have been developing it for some time. We are looking at the most comprehensive, confrontational, and partisan Labor agenda in decades: 1. The Civil Rights Bill 2. Strikebreaker Legislation (Labors top priority) 3. Parental Leave 4. Mandated Benefits 5. OSHA Criminal Penalties 6. Whistleblower Protection 7. Pension Reform (Visclosky) plus others. How do we respond? The worst possible scenario for us as Republicans is to be totally on the defensive. Yet, it must be understood by everyone, they are not interested in compromise and "signable" legislation. They want confrontation, vetoes by the President, with numerous votes to sustain the vetoes by House Republicans. The campaign ads for 1992 will then have been written! We as Republicans are at our best when we focus on economic growth and competitiveness. We will be at our second best, if we can prevent most of these issues from becoming a major item in the 102nd. And this is possible. I strongly encourage the President to announce in his State of the Union address, or soon there-after, the creation of a high level, bi-partisan, distinguished blue-ribbon Presidential commission to review and recommend a whole-sale and comprehensive review of labor law in this country. The purpose of the commission would be to recommend those changes necessary to modernize labor law to reflect the dramatic changes in America's workforce, and global economy that surround us as we enter the 21st century. The magnitude of this review makes it a two-year commission. A commission such as this can be justified on its own merits. They last major modification of labor law in this country was in 1959! However, it has even more merit from a timing and political perspective. In the midst of an economic slowdown, combined with the ongoing work of such a commission, we as Republicans would be able to articulate the need to preclude the commission's recommendations or to piecemeal labor law revisions. It is my opinion, that a commission sufficiently distinguished to give it credibility would allow us to defeat or prevent any of the above legislation from being considered in this upcoming session. I intend to introduce legislation at the beginning of this session to create such a commission. The only negative from doing so, is that if it moves, the Democrats will revise it to insist upon naming some of its members. Thus, an executive action by the White House allows the Administration to control the membership and its results. Any suggestions, comments, or reactions are invited. THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON Date: January 4, 1991 TO: Nancy Jones FROM: Mia Kelly Special Assistant to the Chief of Staff Roger and Ed have talked about these phone calls. Ideally, Roger could participate in all of them; if not, however, as many as possible (2?) would be greatly appreciated! Please coordinate with Ruth Guimond at x6623 or x7730. Thanks! confrall; THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON ER-FYI. December 31, 1990 Dear ^F1^: On Monday, January 7 at AR2, I am inviting you to join in a conference call with: David Demarest - Assistant to the President for Communications, Roger Porter - Assistant to the President for Economic and Domestic Policy and myself. The purpose of this conference call is to allow you the opportunity to provide us with your thoughts and ideas regarding the President's upcoming State of the Union address. Please call Ruth Guimond at 456-6623 as soon as possible with an accurate phone number to contact you at. If you have any questions, please do not hesistate to call. Thank you. Sincerely, David M. Carney Special Assistant to the President and Director, Office of Political Affairs ^F3^ 1000 am - Eastern region 1030 - Southern region 200 pm - midwesTern region 230 pm - North+Southwestern regions FROM: ED ROGERS GOVERNOR SUNUNU FOR: Date: January 3, 1991 WASHINGTON : WHITE HOUSE THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON Date: January 3. 1991 ROGER PORTER THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON Date: January 3, 1991 FOR: FROM: ED ROGERS ANDY CARD A: ED ROGERS Action Your Comment Let's Talk FYI XX X Action Your Comment Let's Talk THE WHITE HOUSE FYI WASHINGTON XXX Date: January 3, 1991 RE THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON Date: January 3, 1991 ent DAVID CARNEY ROGERS Action Your Comment Let's Talk FYI FROM: ED XXX X X FOR: 01/02/91 10:05 ES 714 644 6329 01 To: ED ROGERS FR: JACK FLANIGAN 202-456-2397 1989 Legislative Handbook Members of the Senate 37 SEYMOUR, John (R) 35th District, Orange County. First elected in a special election, April 1982. Legisla- tive priorities include education, transportation, housing and drug and alcohol abuse. Committees: Budget and Fiscal Re view' (Vice Chairman): Education: Housing and Urban Affairs; Revenue and Taxa. tion; Transportation. Former Mayor of Ansheim, past President of California Association of Realtors, past Presiden: Anaheim Chamber of Com- merce. Craduate, UCL/I and veteran of the U.S. Marine Corps. Married to Judy and father of six children. 02 01/02/91 10:05 $ 714 644 6329 (1988 Publication) JOHN SEYMOUR ANAHEIM 35TH SENATORIAL DISTRICT John Seymour was first elected to the 35th Senate District In a special election on Fountain Senator Seymour serves B constituency of approximately 600,000 people living in the cities April of Costa 18, 1982. Beach, Valley, Orange, Tustin, Villa Park, and parts of the cities of Anaheim, Garden Grove, Huntington Mesa, Irvine, Midway City, Newport Beach, Sar to Ane and Westminster. member of the Revenue & Texation, Transportation end Education Committees. Senator Seymour serves as Vice Chairman of the Budget & Fiscal Review Committee, and is a Prior to coming to the Senate, John was electe Mayor of the City of Anaheim in 1978 and served as taking Mayor his seat Pro-Tem. in the Senate From 1974 to 1978, h: served as & Member of the Anaheim City Council, until and A graduate of UCLA, John's career progression in the private sector has been that of who 125 built a broad based real estate brokerage, property management and escrow business an with entrepreneur than employees. John sold his business In 1981 in order to devote himself full time to public more service. John is a former member of the Board of Governors of Republican Associates and, the ranking 1983. Republican in the State Senate, was elected Chairman of the Senate Republican Caucus as on second July 1, of YMCA, Past President of the Anaheim Chamber of Commerce, and has served as Chairman of the Board John is a former President of the California Association of Realtors, a former Director on the Anaheim Californians for Housing Coalition, and as Co-Chairman of Orange County Citizens for Water. John is 49, a veteran of the U.S. Marine Corps, and he and his wife, Judy, have six children. THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DATE: January 3, 1991 TO: GOVERNOR SUNUNU EDE HOLIDAY FROM: ED ROGERS This looks good. Did we know about it? Suggesting tiered restrictions REILLY EYES WETLANDS PROTECTION SYSTEM BASED ON RELATIVE ECOLOGICAL VALUE EPA administrator William Rellly is interested in exploring a "classification" plan which would base the level of protection afforded a wetland on the value of the ecological system in question. The surprise pronouncement came in an exclusive Dec. 14 interview with Inside EPA. The classification system, which designates wetlands according to their value, has been endorsed' by the National League of Cities (Inside EPA. Dec. 14, pil) and some members of Congress, who are concerned by what they see as EPA's indiscriminate prosecution of wetlands violators when certain areas are not as valuable as others. The White House Domestic Policy Council also reportedly is taking an interest in the plan. However, environmentalists and some of Rellly's own staff believe the classification system exceeds the boundaries of the agency's scientific expertise and fear it could result in a "writing off" of some key wetlands. Reilly unabashedly made clear his interest in the plan, however. Reilly highlighted the wetlands issue as one of his top priorities, calling it a difficult area, because it touches upon the "intimate relationship" between people and their private property. "My personal sense is that we need to find a way of applying a 'duck test' to wetlands," to ensure that the agency holds the line on the most highly productive wetlands, he said. "That probably will result in some kind of a classification system that identifies a hierarchy of wetlands values." Reilly appreciates the concerns of the scientific community and understands the need to avoid "writing off" wetlands. But he says EPA's delineation manual outlining its wetlands policy "invelved some overreaching. It was never our intention to subject to our jurisdiction 40% of the Eastern Shore or substantial parts of states that had long been converted to agriculture or considered appropriate for development and which don't look to an ordinary person like wetlands." The administrator said that the agency has not begun a reclassification effort, but he feels it is "something that makes sense." He says that many constituencies concerned about solving the wetlands problem have endorsed a similar type of approach. Reilly stressed that an ackno wiedgement of the merits of the classification system in no way implies he is weak on wetlands protection and pointed out that he strongly backed key EPA vetoes of projects intruding upon wetlands, in particular the Old Cutler Bay project in Florida, the Two Forks dam in Denver, CO and the beginnings of a veto for a Region II case for the Menlo Park wetlands. However, he regards the veto as a last resort and feels that if the regulatory system is working properly, a veto should not be necessary. An agency source says EPA was recently made aware of the administrator's interest in the issue and points out that classification is not a new idea, carrying both proponents and foes. The practical problem, notes this source, is the state of the science and the ability to come up with a broad scheme to apply to such a diverse universe of wetlands. This source says that EPA has never taken a strong position on the issue, but acknowledges that "there's a lot we don't know" about the value of wetlands. "We've never said it's wrong. We've just said we weren't ready to go with it" with the current scientific limitations. The classification system is one potential response to the criticism being "heaped" on EPA's implementation of the Clean Water Act section 404 program, this source says. Some states have tried the system and "sometimes it works, sometimes in doesn't." An environmentalist says the idea is not new, and explains that it was the focus of much conversation during a wetlands forum where Reilly was a participant. The idea can work, provided there are safeguards, this source says. "That Reilly is thinking about it and wants to have debate on it is never a bad idea." An EPA official stresses that Reilly is interested in avoiding "going after the little guy" and ensuring that tough actions are taken on premier wetlands. "This is something he's thinking about." One possibility is to refine the delineation manual to protect wetlands that have the most value. "He is open to suggestions to ensure that priority wetlands get priority attention," and that EPA does not surrender resources to give its wetlands program a bad name, this source says. A source with the Water Office says that there have been no in-depth discussions about the classification approach, but sees merit in examining the method. EPA SCRAMBLES TO AVOID SITE CLEANUP ROLLBACKS IN WAKE OF SUPERFUND CUTS EPA, preparing to implement Congress' significant paring back of the Administration's Superfund budget request, is grappling with how to avoid cutting the cleanup program. Congress slashed $160-million from the Administration's $1.74-billion request for fiscal year 1991, though handing the agency $1.6-billion, representing Superfund's largest budget. The cutback from the Administration's request is forcing EPA to take a hard look at where it can rell back existing programs. In the past, cuts have been taken in the remedial cleanup program, but with so many projects moving to the cleanup stage, EPA can ill afford to INSIDE EPA - December 21, 1990 3 THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON January 2, 1990 MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT FROM: ED ROGERS IR SUBJECT: POLITICAL UPDATE O State Senator John Seymour is the choice for California's open Senate seat. By way of background, Seymour is a former mayor of Anaheim, and was the pro-choice, moderate candidate who ran against Marian Bergeson for Lieutenant Governor in the 1990 primary. He's in his early 50s and has made a great deal of money in the real estate market. Jack Flanigan describes Seymour as "a political clone of Pete Wilson". Initially, conservatives won't be happy. O Lee Atwater is not doing well. Although there have been no dramatic developments with the tumor, or any other medical problems, his energy is drained and he's extremely fatigued. He's depressed, inattentive, sad and compulsive. Dr. Newman says he wouldn't be surprised if Lee died anytime, but he also will not give any new estimate for life-expectancy. THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON Date: January 2, 1991 FOR: DAVID CARNEY FROM: ED ROGERS Action Your Comment Let's Talk XXX FYI THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON 90 DEC 29 AM11: 19 December 28, 1990 MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT FROM: ROGER B. PORTER RBP SUBJECT: State Environmental Ballot Initiatives Seven states had a total of eleven environmental initiatives on their ballots this past November. The results are striking. Of the eleven initiatives, only one measure passed. Most were decisively defeated. A list of the initiatives with a brief description of their content, and the results, is attached. I have discussed this phenomenon with Bill Reilly and he concurs that three principal factors contributed to these results: 1. Many of the environmental ballot initiatives were extremely complicated and difficult to understand. Many voters are reluctant to vote for something that has a good deal of uncertainty associated with it in their minds. 2. More importantly, many of the ballot initiatives were filled with unreasonable provisions that went well beyond the idea of balance that you have repeatedly emphasized with respect to environmental benefits and economic growth. California's "Big Green" initiative illustrates the point. In the end, 100 of the 103 major newspapers in California formally opposed Big Green. 3. Not least, the costs associated with many of these initiatives were large and visible. Faced with the prospect of restraints on economic growth and more governmental mandates, voters resisted schemes that could not credibly make a case that the benefits exceeded the costs. Attachment State Environmental Ballot Initiatives November 1990 Arizona Defeated 66% to 34%. Proposition 202, a solid waste measure, would have authorized a comprehensive recycling plan and encouraged the use of state land as waste sites. California Defeated 63% to 37%. Proposition 128, "Big Green," would have banned all pesticides with any trace of carcinogens, required a 20 percent cut in carbon dioxide emissions by the year 2000 and a 40 percent cut by 2010 to combat global warming, prohibited offshore oil drilling less than three miles from shore (except in national emergencies), ended the use of all chemicals that affect the ozone layer by 1997, ended private forest clearcutting, levied a 25 cent-per-barrel tax on oil companies to pay for an oil spill prevention and cleanup fund, and created an environmental advocate with the power to enforce all environmental programs. Defeated 70% to 30%. Proposition 135 would have increased the monitoring of pesticide use without an outright ban. Defeated 53% to 47%. Proposition 130, "Forest Forever," would have banned clearcutting, and demanded timber replenishing and state acquisition of old-growth forests. Missouri Defeated 75% to 25%. Proposition A, "The Natural Streams Act," would have designated 55 bodies of water, tributaries, and the adjoining land as part of the Natural Streams System. This would have banned the expansion of business, agriculture, ranching, and timbering operations on regulated land without providing any compensation. Oregon Defeated 57% to 43%. Measure Number 6, "The Recycling Act of 1990," would have required that all packaging, with certain exemptions, either be reusable at least five times, be made of 50 percent recycled content, or contain materials being recycled at least 15 percent in Oregon (with that percentage increasing over time). Defeated 59% to 41%. This measure would have shut down the Trojan Nuclear Power Plant unless a radioactive waste disposal site was federally licensed and operated, the plant became "cost efficient," and the plant could withstand major earthquakes without harm to the public. -2- New York Defeated 51% to 49%. Proposition 1, "The Environmental Quality Bond Act," would have authorized raising nearly $2 billion in bond sales for a variety of environmental programs, including buying land threatened by development. Also, $300 million of the bonds would have funded municipal recycling programs statewide. South Dakota Passed 53% to 47%. Measure 1 prohibits the large scale siting or operation of a solid waste facility without legislative approval. It was made retroactive to January 1, 1989. Defeated 53% to 47%. Measure 2 would have prohibited surface or subsurface gold or silver mining operations in the Black Hills. Washington Defeated 75% to 25%. Initiative Measure 547 would have repealed the existing Growth Management Act with stringent land-use and growth regulations. THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON Date: January 2, 1991 FOR: ROGER PORTER FROM: ED ROGERS Action Your Comment Let's Talk XXXX FYI The NFIB Foundation An Affiliate of National Federation of ER - INFO Independent Business December 21, 1990 The Honorable John Sununu Chief of Staff The White House 1600 Pennsylvania Ave., NW Washington, DC 20500 Dear Mr. Sununu: Congressman Don Sundquist asked that I submit a few suggestions for the Administration's 1991 agenda. These suggestions reflect my personal views as they relate to education, economic growth and the independent sector. I believe the Administration needs to send a clear and simple message in the President's 1991 State of the Union Address to teachers, students, small business owners and their employees and millions of citizens who care about their communities. I recommend the Administration create (1) a National Teachers Fellowship Program--which encourages elementary and secondary school teachers to increase their knowledge by taking summer courses in their current teaching field, and (2) a National Student Voucher Program for Postsecondary Education and Training--which encourages all students to seek postsecondary choice. education in the field of their Suite -00 I suggest these two programs, which are directly 600 Maryland Ave. S.W. aimed at the individual student and teacher, should Washington. DC 20024 be funded from the current Department of Education (202) 554-9000 budget. It is time to phase out experimental grants, which do not enhance meritorious teaching, and the current student loan and grant program, which overhead. is saturated by mismanagement and exorbitant On the economic agenda, consider adopting a Small Business Recovery Program--which (1) reduces the FICA tax, (2) increases expensing for small The Honorable John Sununu December 21, 1990 Page 2 business, (3) includes a small business investment tax credit and (4) expands the individual retirement account program. We should shift the burden of the less fortunate from all levels of government to the independent sector. The Administration should enhance and expand its Thousand Points of Light program by establishing (through volunteerism and no federal funding) model community programs which tap the resources of the independent sector to address the problems of food, clothing, shelter and employment training for those in need. This can be accomplished by leadership from the President calling on all Americans to volunteer their skills, time and other resources to help people in their communities. As I assured Don, I am more than willing to fill in the details for these ideas with you or your staff. Best Wishes for the New Year, Dones David R. Jones President CC: The Honorable Don Sundquist THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON January 2, 1991 MEMORANDUM FOR MRS. BUSH THROUGH: DEPUTY ASSISTANT sign TO THE PRESIDENT AND ED ROGERS, EXECUTIVE ASSISTANT TO THE CHIEF OF STAFF DAVID CARNEY SPECIAL ASSISTANT TO THE PRESIDENT AND DIRECTOR, OFFICE OF POLITICAL AFFAIRS FROM: BRUCE STEBBINS ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR, OFFICE OF POLITICAL AFFAIRS SUBJECT: NEW HAMPSHIRE POLITICAL BRIEFING 1990 ELECTION UPDATE GOVERNOR: Incumbent Republican Governor Judd Gregg faced only a modest challenge from former State Democrat Party Chairman Joe Grandmaison. Despite a lagging state economy, Gregg defeated Grandmaison, 64%-36%. Gregg will most likely seek re-election in 1992. (New Hampshire's gubernatorial race takes place every two years). Gregg was able to highlight Grandmaison's association with the Massachusetts Dukakis organization - which served as a base of fundraising support during the campaign. Gregg, New Hampshire's George Bush for President Steering Committee Chairman, had a tough first term. During a legislative debate over the state's budget, the issue of a flat tax (sales or state income) came under public discussion. U.S. SENATE: First District Republican Congressman Bob Smith easily defeated former Democrat U.S. Senator John Durkin in last year's election, 67%-33%. In that race, both candidates modified their positions on abortion. Smith, a strong conservative, eased his anti-abortion stance somewhat, while Durkin moved to support abortion rights. Smith decided to run for the Senate after Republican Senator Gordon Humphrey decided to step down and run for a seat in the State Senate. Smith, who had served New Hampshire's First Congressional District since 1984, jumped into the race and handily won a four-way primary in September. In spite of Smith's record, some party leaders were skeptical about his chances and were reluctant to sign on with his campaign. CONGRESSIONAL RACES First District: Republican Bill Zeliff, former DuPont Chemical Company executive and local inn-keeper, defeated Joe Keefe, a Manchester attorney, 56%-44%. Zeliff, an early 1987 Bush supporter and a friend of John Sununu's, defeated seven other candidates in the Republican primary - including State House Speaker Doug Scamman. Democrat Keefe, having run against Bob Smith in 1988, enjoyed greater district-wide recognition. He wasn't, and isn't, however, considered part of the state establishment. Second District: Democrat and political unknown Dick Swett upset freshman Republican Congressman Chuck Douglas by a margin of 53%-47%. Douglas has had a running disagreement with Nancy Sununu over what values and traditions New Hampshire should represent. The Swett campaign used this highly publicized debate to its advantage - - Mrs. Sununu's quotes were even featured on one of Swett's campaign pamphlets. Incidentally, Douglas did not run a good campaign. He started his effort too late and was rumored to be asking the Bob Smith for Senate campaign for advice and support. REAPPORTIONMENT : New Hampshire will not lose any seats following the 1991 reapportionment. GENERAL POLITICAL INTELLIGENCE - The Bush/Quayle ticket won New Hampshire by a margin of 63%-37% in 1988. - The Republicans lost seats in both houses of the state legislature in the 1990 elections. In the State Senate, Republicans lost three seats, but still enjoy a 13-11 margin. During the vote for Senate President, however, one Republican backed the Democrat choice. As a result, new Senate President Ed DuPont was forced to give the Democrats control of 13 of the 24 Senate Committees. The State House of Representatives, one of the largest legislative bodies in the world, is controlled by Republicans, 272-128 - in spite of a six seat loss.