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Records of the White House Office of the Chief of Staff to the President (George H. W. Bush Administration)
John Sununu Issues Files
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Originally Processed With FOIA(s):
FOIA Number:
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This is not a textual record. This is used as an
administrative marker by the George Bush Presidential
Library Staff.
Record Group/Collection:
George H.W. Bush Presidential Records
Collection/Office of Origin: Chief of Staff, White House Office of
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Sununu, John, Files
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Issues Files
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Climate Change 1990 [6]
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1
1
NCPA
National Center for Policy Analysis
EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE
For more information:
Until June 14, 1990
Judy Schmidt
8:00 a.m.
214/386-6272
At night and on
weekends:
214-262-7255
STUDY: BUSH CAPITAL GAINS PROPOSAL
WILL REDUCE FEDERAL BUDGET
President Bush's proposed capital gains tax cut will increase federal revenue by $185
billion over the next ten years and most of the new revenue will come from wealthy taxpayers
according to a study by the National Center for Policy Analysis.
"It's a win-win proposal which will produce a painless reduction in the federal deficit,"
said Gary Robbins a former Treasury Department economist who coauthored the study. "People
who sell assets will get to keep more income and the government will get more in taxes."
Under the Administration's proposal, the effective tax rate on capital gains income would
be reduced by as much as 19.6 percent, depending on the length of time an asset is held. The
study says that the tax cut will make investment more attractive and will stimulate economic
growth. As the economy grows, government revenues will grow as well. Specifically,
-more-
First Interstate Plaza 12655 N. Central Expy.. Suite 720 Dallas, TX 75243-1739 (214) 386-NCPA FAX 386-0924
The Bush proposal will cause the nation's output of goods and services
to increase by $623 billion over the next ten years.
Aftertax personal income will be $182 billion higher by the year 2000,
increasing about $15 billion per year.
Increased federal revenue will grow to $65 billion by 1995 and $185
billion by the year 2000.
State and local governments will collect $106 billion in new taxes over
the decade.
"Most of the new revenue will come from wealthier taxpayers," said Robbins. "The capital
gains tax cut is a very progressive way of reducing the federal deficit." According to the study:
Taxpayers with an income of $75,000 or more will pay 49 percent of
the additional personal income tax revenues.
Taxpayers with an income of $30,000 or more will pay 93 percent of
the additional personal income tax revenues.
The study says that capital gains forecasting has become a "political football in which
forecasters selectively consider some economic effects while ignoring others, and suspiciously
alter their forecasting assumptions."
-more-
Congress's Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) and the Administration's Department of the
Treasury have both released forecasts more pessimistic than the NCPA forecast. "Both agencies
are ignoring the dynamic effects of a tax cut on investment and economic growth," said Robbins.
"If the 1980s taught us anything, we learned that taxes affect behavior."
Robbins said the NCPA forecast considers all economic effects and is based on very
moderate assumptions.
- 30 -
SCIENCE
&
- TECHNOLOGY
AND
THE PRESIDENT
October 24, 1988
A REPORT BY
THE CARNEGIE COMMISSION ON SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, AND GOVERNMENT
10 WAVERLY PLACE, NEW YORK, NY 10003 (212) 998-2150 FAX (212) 995-3181
TABLE OF CONTENTS
i
Executive Summary
1
I. Introduction
II. The President's Needs During the Transition
2
III. Presidential Level Issues Involving Science and Technology
4
National Security
Space Policy
Civilian Technology and Economic Competitiveness
Health
Environment
Large-scale S&T Programs
Scientific and Technical Education and Research
Government Technical Personnel
IV. Science and Technology Functions Supporting the President
9
Advising the President
Working with Cabinet-level Councils
Supporting Executive Office Oversight
The Science and Technology Report
Testifying Before the Congress
V. S&T Organization Within the Executive Office
13
Status of the S&T Staff Assistant
Strengthening Executive Office S&T Capacity
S&T Policy Analysis
Drawing on the Outside S&T Community
17
Endnotes
Appendix A: Statement Establishing Commission
18
Appendix B: List of Presidential S&T Appointments
22
Appendix C: History of the President's S&T Organization
25
Members of the Commission and Advisory Council
Inside Cover
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1. The Carnegie Commission on Science, Technology, and Government was
established in April, 1988 to assess the process by which the government
incorporates scientific and technical knowledge into policy and decisionmaking.
The Commission is made up of individuals with broad experience in government
and in science and technology.
2. Science and technology, effectively mobilized, can help the President achieve
his Administration's goals. That mobilization can best be accomplished by
bringing science and technology (S&T) into the highest levels of government.
The Commission has therefore focused its attention first on how S&T knowledge
and advice can help the President deal with S&T related matters in the transition
period and beyond.
3. Some of the issues involving S&T that will come up include: national security
(new weapons, arms control, SDI), health (health costs, AIDS, drugs), large S&T
projects (the superconducting supercollider, the High Speed Civil Transport), the
environment (acid rain, ozone depletion and greenhouse effect), economic
competitiveness, energy and nuclear materials, and the S&T enterprise (science
education, academic research and the defense technology base). Other issues are
certain to emerge.
4. The President will need the help of a senior staff assistant to respond to his
needs by providing independent counsel in matters involving S&T -- for advice,
for assistance in policy formulation, budget preparations, policy and program
implementation, responding to emergencies, and for early warning of major S&T
developments.
5. The Commission recommends that the President upgrade the existing position
of Science Adviser to an Assistant to the President for Science" and Technology.
The appointment should be made early in the post-election period so that the
Assistant can participate on the transition team and handle S&T questions relating
to policy directions, budgetary choices, the organization of the Executive Office
staff, and the identification and review of candidates for major Presidential
appointments to S&T posts in the Executive Branch. The Assistant should
propose S&T qualified individuals to serve on Presidential task forcès dealing with
policies and programs and should organize ad hoc expert groups on selected S&T
issues when requested.
6. The Assistant should have a strong and formal relationship with the National
Security Council, the Domestic Policy Council, the Economic Policy Council, and
the Office of Management and Budget.
7. The Assistant would also be Director of the statutory Office of Science and
Technology Policy (OSTP) within the Executive Office of the President. The
OSTP should be strengthened. The four Presidential appointments to the positions
of Associate Director of the OSTP should be made, and the OSTP staff will need
to be increased. The Associate Directors should have policy functions as well as
diversified expertise. They should be closely coupled with other parts of the
Executive Office, including the NSC, through joint arrangements. The OSTP
should have the resources to commission outside analytical studies.
8. The President and his Assistant must have the ability to call on the national
S&T community for help and to have the collective judgments of broad-gauged
experts drawn from different facets of S&T. The Commission recommends that
the President appoint an outside group of highly qualified and respected science
and technology advisors to report to him through its chairman, the Assistant for
Science and Technology, The members should be willing to devote a substantial
portion of their time to its work.
9. The Commission stands ready to help the President and his Assistant for
Science and Technology during and following the transition period.
ii
I. INTRODUCTION
This paper by the Carnegie Commission on Science, Technology and Government
was prepared to assist the incoming President and his staff as they deal with
matters involving science and technology (S&T) during the transition period and
thereafter [1]. The paper:
discusses the President's needs during the post-election period;
highlights key S&T related issues that will require Presidential
attention early in the new Administration;
describes the major functions for the President's S&T staff; and
outlines organizational requirements for obtaining S&T advice.
The Commission was established by Carnegie Corporation of New York in April
1988 to assess, over a three to five year period, the process by which the
government brings S&T knowledge into policy and decisionmaking. Rapid and
pervasive transformations resulting from developments in S&T have imposed
critical burdens on this process [2].
While the Commission's mandate covers all parts and levels of government, it has
given priority attention to how the President gets S&T advice and assistance. The
organization of this function can influence the entire Federal decisionmaking
system and the ability of the nation to use S&T to further military security and
domestic well-being.
II. THE PRESIDENT'S NEEDS DURING THE TRANSITION
Even before his inauguration, the new President will have to
set initial policy priorities for the new Administration;
resolve critical budgetary questions concerning S&T investments in
defense, space, health and other major programs that will affect his first
Budget Message to the Congress;
make several dozen key technical appointments to the Federal
departments and agencies; and
organize the White House and the Executive Office staffs.
Scientific and technical expertise and advice are relevant -- even necessary -- to all
of these undertakings. A senior staff assistant who is compatible with the
President and his other key staff advisers can be an important contributor to
Presidential decisions during the transition period. The incoming President will
want to be as knowledgeable as possible about the issues and have a staff capable
of providing a confidential, independent, dependable and continuing source of
S&T expertise.
The Commission believes that the President should upgrade the existing position
of Science Adviser and appoint a senior staff member, with the title of Assistant
to the President for Science and Technology, early in the transition period. The
person appointed must be capable of obtaining and providing advice on these
immediate tasks, have the full confidence of the President, have the respect of the
S&T community, and have the breadth to assist the President as he addresses a
substantial agenda of issues. The Assistant would also serve as the Director of the
statutory Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP).
Many significant budget decisions will have to be made by the President during
the transition and in the early days of his Administration. A number of them will
require judgments on the S&T aspects of programs. Research and development
expenditures are approximately 25% of the discretionary budget. The Assistant
should work with the new director of the Office of Management and Budget on
major budget issues involving S&T.
The Assistant should be a member of the group that recruits for key Presidential
appointments calling for technical competence. Appendix B lists some sixty
important positions requiring Presidential appointments that also require S&T
qualifications. The people involved in personnel searches are typically not
knowledgeable or experienced in identifying such persons. An Assistant for
Science and Technology who is highly regarded by the President and the technical
community can play a critical role in proposing and reviewing prospective
candidates, and persuading distinguished individuals to accept high-level positions.
In carrying out this task, the Assistant could enlist the help of organizations such
2
as the National Academies of Sciences and Engineering, the Institute of Medicine
and the American Association for the Advancement of Science.
The President may wish to convene special task forces during the transition period
to address immediate and longer-range policy issues. Where appropriate, the
Assistant should be asked to recommend persons competent in S&T to serve as
members of these task forces. When requested by the President or the transition
team, the Assistant should also organize ad hoc expert working groups to probe
S&T matters in depth.
The Commission recommends that the President appoint an
Assistant for Science and Technology very early in the
transition and that the Assistant be a member of internal
staff groups addressing policy and budgetary issues and
advising on Presidential appointments to positions that
require a scientific or technical background.
The Commission further recommends that the Assistant be
asked to propose technically qualified persons to serve on
Presidential task forces dealing with particular areas of
concern and to convene ad hoc groups of experts to examine
selected S&T issues.
3
III. PRESIDENTIAL LEVEL ISSUES INVOLVING
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
In recent years, there has been a substantial increase in the number and scope of
issues coming before the President whose resolution require S&T knowledge and
informed professional judgment. They stem from the acceleration of scientific
knowledge and technological development, from the opportunities these
developments offer, and from an increased understanding and awareness of their
economic and societal consequences.
Beginning immediately and throughout his administration, the President will have
four main areas in which he will need S&T advice. The first embraces the
scientific and technical aspects of space and national security, including arms
control issues. The second concerns civilian technology and economic
competitiveness. The third involves biomedical questions, including health and
drug abuse, and the environment. The fourth is the S&T technical base -- the
entire research and development apparatus, basic science and generic technology;
and science and engineering-education. Many individual decisions affect more
than one of these areas.
Among the critical S&T-related issues facing the next President are the following:
National Security
Many national security-related policies have interwoven technical, political and
military dimensions:
New Weapons Systems Requirements. There is general agreement that the recent
build-up in the Defense department has been designed for an annual operation
level that is substantially higher than the level of $300 billion agreed for future
expenditures by the Congress and the present Administration. As new weapons
systems now come on-line, the President will face major decisions on the balance
between strategic and conventional forces and between weapons procurement,
operations and maintenance, force structure, and sustainment capabilities.
Strategic Forces. It will be necessary to restructure and modernize the strategic
forces to incorporate new weapons technologies. How can the changes be made
to ensure that these forces are adequately survivable? Do they enhance our
security and do so in the most economical way? How can capabilities and
objectives be better matched?
Strategic Interaction with Conventional Forces. If strategic forces were to be
reduced by 50% under a START agreement, what changes would be needed in the
level and mix of our remaining strategic as well as conventional forces? For
example, to what extent and in what way should technological opportunities, such
as high precision weapons, be exploited?
4
Arms Control. There are technical possibilities for unilateral verification of arms
control agreements in addition to cooperative and more intrusive means of
verification. How should these possibilities affect U.S. positions and goals in
negotiating arms control treaties? The Strategic Defense Initiative program is a
critical part of the arms control debate. Its goal requires changing the balance
between defensive and offensive strategic forces. Is this goal technically and
strategically viable?
Intelligence. In the past, White House leadership has been important to the
development and continued improvement of new technologies for surveillance.
Are there new possibilities for collecting and analyzing information? What is the
value of additional technical intelligence capabilities in relation to their cost? How
could new intelligence technologies open up opportunities for viable phasedowns
of strategic and conventional weapons systems?
Space policy
U.S. dominance in space peaked with the Apollo manned lunar landings and the
Viking unmanned exploration of Mars. It has since declined. The President will
have to make critical decisions about the space program.
Space goals and initiatives. Priorities have to be set among the various expensive
programs. Which major new initiatives -- planetary exploration, earth science, or
manned missions to the Moon or Mars -- should the President support? Should
any of these be cooperative programs with other countries? Will the space shuttle
be able to justify its costs over time?
The Space Station. Funding the Space Station -- the logical next step to prepare
for manned exploration -- may crowd out NASA's smaller scientific and
operational programs. The President will need to decide whether to fully fund,
stretch out, or modify the program.
Launch Capability. Launch capability for unmanned missions has deteriorated.
How do the military and civilian programs obtain a balanced, mixed fleet of
launchers?
Civilian Space Programs. While the U.S. did the pioneering work in civilian
space applications, we are losing that lead. U.S. leadership in satellite
communications is threatened by the Europeans and the Japanese. The French
earth observation satellite is outperforming the American unclassified version, and
French and Chinese launchers are gaining in the commercial satellite launching
market. Should the government take a more active role in the development and
promotion of civilian space applications?
5
Civilian Technology and Economic Competitiveness
The international competitiveness of American industry has suffered serious
erosion. One of the underlying causes -- though only one of several -- is a loss of
American leadership in important product and process technologies. The critical
deficiency is not in research but in failure to achieve fast and effective
commercialization of scientific and engineering advances. The hard task facing
the government is to find ways to induce industry to abandon short-sighted
management practices, without interfering in the details of business decision-
making. Policy will have to go beyond the support of R&D to such complex
goals as achieving a lower cost of capital for investment, stimulating long-range
improvements in manufacturing technology, and creating a labor force with skills
and motivations adequate for the modern competitive world. S&T machinery
must interact with economic and fiscal policy.
Health
Health care accounts for over 11% of the U.S. GNP, but there is ever increasing
dissatisfaction with the balance of costs and benefits. These conflicts will surely
be aggravated for a variety of reasons including the aging of the U.S. population,
the rapid evolution of new but more costly technologies (like the new artificial
kidney and the magnetic resonance scanner), a host of new ethical dilemmas, and
increasing expectations that technology can offer and society will pay for
alleviation of all disease.
Meanwhile, substance abuse is a festering wound that threatens the fundamental
tenets of civility, compounded by its further consequences in crime and in the
spread of AIDS and other infections.
Scientific research related to health care is a legitimate source of pride in the U.S.,
but it constitutes barely 3% of the investment in care alone. Are expenditures in
health care, disease prevention and research in proper balance and soherence?
Environment
Air Quality. Acid rain pollution has been a contentious issue between different
geographic areas of the country. Ozone depletion in the upper atmosphere has
focussed attention on the impact of apparently benign gases, such as
chlorofluorocarbons, on the atmosphere. The increase in infrared-absorbing gases
such as carbon dioxide and methane seems to be reinforcing concerns about a
"greenhouse effect" that is causing global warming. These problems go beyond
our borders, and require international agreements and Presidential attention.
Waste Disposal. Toxic chemicals and medical waste attract public attention, but
the waste disposal problem is much broader. What more should be done to
anticipate and reduce environmental threats?
6
Large-Scale S&T Programs
Large science and technology programs have become costly discretionary items in
the budget. Many of them start out as relatively small items in a given agency's
budget and do not appear to raise significant questions. Because these projects are
generally sponsored by different agencies, their relative priorities are often not
weighed systematically. The opportunities for international cooperation tend to be
neglected. Some examples include:
New Aerospace Transports. The Air Force is developing technology for a
National Aerospace Plane (NASP). This program -- currently budgeted to receive
approximately $100 million per year -- is aimed at developing a Mach 25 aircraft
that can go into space. At the same time NASA is pursuing the Mach 2.5-5.0
High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT), also scheduled to cost $100 million per year.
The project competes with Japanese and European efforts.
The Superconducting Supercollider. Site selection is proceeding on this high
energy accelerator that is expected to advance the field of fundamental particle
physics. The project is sponsored by the Department of Energy. Congress has
funded the program at a relatively low level, thereby deferring the decision to
build to the next President. The program will eventually cost $5-6 billion.
The human genome program. The Department of Energy and the National
Institutes of Health are co-sponsoring an ambitious, long-range effort to map the
structure of the human genome. The long-term cost could reach $2-3 billion.
Scientific and Technical Education and Research
Scientific and technical education. The current quality and extent of science
education are seriously inadequate in meeting the nation's need for an informed
citizenry and for technological growth in the decades to come.-While the states
are mainly responsible for elementary and secondary education, Federal leadership
is needed for upgrading curricula, development of tests, improvement of teaching,
and meeting the special needs of women and minorities. At the college and
graduate level, more American students are needed, particularly in engineering. In
addition, the Federal government should find ways to encourage technical
upgrading of those already in the work force.
Scientific and Technical Research. There needs to be stronger support from
Federal research grants and contracts for basic research at universities. University
research facilities are well behind the industry norm, reducing the opportunity for
cutting-edge research. In considering the cost and value of "big science and
technology" projects, the President will need to take into account the appropriate
balance between them and investigator initiated "small science" -- the backbone of
basic science and of S&T graduate education. To what extent should some of
these large-scale projects be carried out cooperatively with other countries?
7
Government Technical Personnel.
The success of the next Administration will depend heavily on the quality of
people it can recruit for technical positions. It is generally agreed that the quality
has eroded. Low government salaries, conflict of interest laws, and lessened
respect for civil servants may all contribute to the problem. Can recruitment
policies and hiring procedures be modified to attract excellent technical people to
managerial positions?
8
IV. SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY FUNCTIONS
SUPPORTING THE PRESIDENT
The Assistant for Science and Technology wears two hats: that of a senior
member of the White House staff, and that of Director of the statutory Office of
Science and Technology Policy. In both capacities, the Assistant should perform
the following principal functions drawing on the resources of the OSTP staff and
outside consultants:
Advice: advising and assisting the President and his staff
Policy: participating in the formulation of policy involving S&T
Funding: advising on the priorities and funding of S&T
Implementation: tracking of S&T related policy implementation
Early Warning: alerting the President to developments in S&T and
their policy significance
Emergencies: responding to emergencies such as electricity blackouts,
technoterrorism, computer breakdown, natural disasters.
Matters coming to Presidential attention that involve S&T usually have one or
more of the following characteristics:
they reach across or beyond the interests and responsibilities of
several departments and agencies;
they have major budgetary or policy implications;
they have significant national security or foreign policy dimensions;
they have particularly high public visibility.
Advising the President
It is not possible to differentiate sharply between the roles of the Assistant and the
Director of OSTP. The Assistant acts in an individual capacity as a member of
the President's inner staff to respond to his day-to-day requests for advice and
assistance and to integrate all S&T inputs and relevant considerations in making
suggestions and recommendations to the President.
Science and technology advice and assistance to the President can take the form of
weighing conflicting technical arguments, presenting policy alternatives and
options, recommending choices and priorities, and evaluating scientific or technical
solutions to problems.
9
An important function of the Assistant is to foresee opportunities and problems.
As President Ford has noted in this context, Presidents don't like surprises. At the
same time, the Assistant must balance his attention to longer range issues with
current and ongoing problems and opportunities.
The Assistant can help the President in his meetings with the heads of foreign
governments. Presidential meetings with the leaders of the Soviet Union, India,
Japan, Korea and Taiwan have featured S&T initiatives and agreements. Such
agreements often symbolize U.S. technical leadership, while serving broader
foreign policy objectives.
Although the Assistant is selected from the S&T community, it is should be
stressed that he is not a lobbyist for that community. Thus, the President can rely
on the Assistant to monitor the health of science and engineering and to identify
measures needed to strengthen the national S&T base, working closely with the
National Science Board. In the past, some members of the S&T community have
erroneously expected the Assistant to be their spokesperson. There have also been
occasions when the Science Adviser has been viewed within government as a
special pleader for science. The performance and effectiveness of the Assistant
must challenge and transcend that misperception.
The departments and agencies will provide much of the help the President needs
on S&T matters. While some may view the Assistant and the OSTP as a
substitute for S&T competence in the agencies, they function most effectively
when the agencies have good technical leadership and staff. In both roles, the
Assistant works with departments and agencies to negotiate compromises or
agreements among conflicting interests and to point them in new directions,
linking them to Presidential concerns.
Working with Cabinet-level Councils.
The Assistant should work closely with other senior members of the President's
staff and with Cabinet members as they come together in the National Security
Council, the Domestic Policy Council, the Economic Policy Council, the Council
of Economic Advisers, the Council on Environmental Quality, and other Executive
Office mechanisms that may be established.
The National Security Council (NSC). In carrying out its integrative role, the NSC
must involve specialized and sensitive understanding of modern military
technologies and their future evolutionary prospects.
The NSC has added a number of staff members with technical training, many
directly from the military services. However, for further depth, the NSC needs
outside experts at the forefront of science and technology. These experts must, of
course, be versed in the strategic and tactical, as well as the technological aspects
of weapons systems.
10
Since 1951, the Presidential Science Advisers have been engaged in the national
security area, and have attended NSC meetings when technical considerations were
involved.
The Domestic Policy Council (DPC). In monitoring the Administration's domestic
goals, the DPC reviews programs in areas such as health, natural resources,
transportation, energy or education -- all of which are heavily influenced by S&T.
Scientific and technological considerations may set limits on what can be
accomplished, or may offer opportunities to reduce costs or increase benefits. In
the DPC, these considerations interact with economic, social, legal, and political
factors.
The Economic Policy Council (EPC). The EPC coordinates activities concerning
domestic and international economic policy. The Assistant would help in defining
the economic policy environment needed to strengthen the contribution of S&T to
economic growth, and in framing economic and fiscal policies aimed at restoring
American industrial leadership.
Other Executive Office Organizations. The President may wish to establish new
Executive Office organizations or change existing ones. For example, new
organizational and institutional arrangements may be needed to deal with U.S.
industrial competitiveness, a major domestic policy issue facing the new
Administration. The assistant must play a key role in this area.
The Commission recommends that the Assistant for Science
and Technology have a strong and formal relationship with
the National Security Council, the Domestic Council, the
Economic Policy Council and the Office of Management and
Budget.
Supporting Executive Office Oversight.
Many of the activities of the Assistant, in his capacity as Director of the OSTP,
involve review and oversight of S&T-related programs. The Assistant, through
the OSTP, will need to cooperate with many parts of the Executive Office and
with the departments and agencies to oversee programs and policies from an
Executive Office perspective.
Office of Management and Budget (OMB). The Assistant's involvement in the
budgetary process is particularly sensitive. As Director of OSTP, the Assistant is
directed by the Congress to advise the President on S&T budgets and assist the
OMB with an annual review and analysis of R&D funding proposals. OMB
strongly influences the content, scope and direction of Federal research and
development programs, and the organization of the government's S&T activities.
The relationship between the Assistant and the OMB leadership must be robust if
the Assistant is to be effective.
11
Program oversight and review. Because of the pervasiveness of S&T in
departmental and agency programs, Executive oversight is critical. For example,
research and development in atmospheric sciences are of interest to the
Department of Commerce, the Department of Interior, the Department of
Agriculture, the Department of Defense, the Department of Energy, the
Environmental Protection Agency, and the National Science Foundation. At a
minimum, information should flow readily among the departments and agencies
and the Assistant. Ideally, fully informed oversight can identify undesirable
duplication as well as locate gaps and assure that, overall, the research and
development policies and programs are being effectively carried out.
One existing mechanism for these purposes is the statutory Federal Coordinating
Council for Science, Engineering and Technology (FCCSET), chaired by the
Director of OSTP. The members of FCCSET are the top-ranking scientists and
engineers in the department and agencies. It operates through specialized panels.
Informed observers believe that neither FCCSET nor its predecessor, the Federal
Council for Science and Technology, performed the oversight functions
adequately. The Assistant will need to explore other approaches to coordination.
The Science and Technology Report.
The OSTP Director is required to submit a "Science and Technology Report and
Outlook" to the Congress no later than January 15 of each odd-numbered year.
This report, which was intended to provide the Congress with a current statement
of the President's policy for maintaining the nation's leadership in S&T, has not
been provided regularly by the OSTP.
The biennial Science and Technology Report could serve a useful purpose and be
a valuable mechanism for Presidential outreach not only to the Congress, but to
the general public. Its preparation, however, is a substantial task requiring
significant staff resources.
Testifying Before the Congress.
The Director of OSTP is called on to testify before the Congress, primarily on the
OSTP appropriation, but also on substantive matters. There has been a lingering
concern that requiring the OSTP Director to testify may conflict with the
confidentiality of his advice to the President as a Presidential Assistant.
Experience has shown that the Congressional Committees have been sensitive to
this issue, and it has not been a significant problem.
12
V. S&T ORGANIZATION WITHIN THE EXECUTIVE OFFICE
The President must decide how to organize the S&T expertise and advice he needs
within the White House staff and Executive Office of the President [3]. There are
four organizational considerations:
the status of the S&T staff Assistant,
the S&T capabilities within the Executive Office,
the capacity for in-depth S&T policy analysis, and
drawing on outside S&T advice.
Although these considerations are treated separately in this report, they are
interactive parts of an S&T management system that must involve the non-
governmental as well as the governmental sector.
Status of the S&T Staff Assistant
We have recommended the appointment of an Assistant to the President for
Science and Technology. The significance and pervasiveness of S&T in
Presidential decisionmaking and the increased complexity of technological issues
justify this status and the need for direct access to the President. The status of
Assistant to the President is also a basic ingredient in the recruitment and
effectiveness of an outstanding person to perform this function.
Clearly, the personal attributes of the Assistant are even more important than
status and title: the ability to relate S&T to short-term needs as well as broad
policy concerns, and personality and adaptability to the style of the President and
his senior staff. Most important is the ability to establish and maintain the trust,
confidence, and interest of the President.
It is essential that officials inside the government perceive that the Assistant has
direct access to the President, is effective and has a close relationship with the
White House senior staff. The perception may be as important as the reality. If
government officials believe that the President understands the importance of S&T
to his policy and decisionmaking and that he relies on his Assistant, their
cooperation will be forthcoming. The Assistant's relationship with the President
will also be the key factor in recruiting a strong technical staff and a cadre of high
caliber consultants.
The Assistant could be accorded Cabinet rank (without portfolio). As a Cabinet
member, he would participate in Cabinet meetings on his own initiative and could
more appropriately chair meetings involving Cabinet members.
Some have suggested that the Adviser be appointed the Secretary of a new
Department of Science and Technology that would incorporate a number of S&T
13
related agencies [4]. Even if there were ultimately to be a new Department of
Science and Technology, there will remain a need for a separate S&T Assistant on
the President's staff. The Assistant must be viewed as impartial and solely
concerned with the interests of the President. If the Secretary of an operational
Department of Science and Technology were also the Assistant to the President
for Science and Technology, this could be rightly regarded as a conflict of interest
when advising on the programs and priorities of other departments and agencies.
The Commission recommends that the science and technology
advisory function not be fragmented and that there be a
single senior staff assistant reporting to the President on S&T
matters with the title of Assistant to the President for Science
and Technology. The merits of Cabinet rank should also be
considered.
Strengthening Executive Office S&T Capacity
The National Science and Technology Policy, Organization, and Priorities Act of
1976 (P.L. 94-282), which created the OSTP, charged that office with helping to
define and implement national science and technology policy, to
advise the President of S&T considerations involved in
areas of national concern,
evaluate the scale, quality and effectiveness of the Federal effort in S&T,
advise the President on S&T considerations with regard to
the Federal budgets, and
assist the President in providing general leadership and coordination
of R&D programs of the Federal Government.
Even after 12 years, the Office is a long way from fulfilling that mandate.
Of considerable importance in strengthening OSTP are the four Presidentially
appointed Associate Director positions provided for in the OSTP legislation.
These posts, mostly vacant through the years, should be filled by highly qualified
individuals drawn from different scientific and technical fields. The posts should
be used to reinforce the policy functions of the Office and to improve the coupling
between OSTP and the various offices and councils in the Executive Office of the
President. Serious consideration should be given to joint arrangements whereby
one Associate Director would work part-time with the NSC staff. A similar
arrangement in the early years of OSTP and its predecessor, the Office of Science
and Technology, proved highly constructive in promoting cooperation between the
two offices and introduced outside S&T expertise in the work of the NSC staff.
Similar joint arrangements with the Office of Management and Budget and other
Executive Office agencies should be considered for other Associate Directors.
14
The coupling problem extends outside of government as well. There are many
perplexities about how to relate Federal S&T policies and programs to the private
sector. It will be a task of the Assistant to find ways to strengthen and effectuate
this coupling.
The performance of the OSTP depends on the size and quality of its full-time
professional staff. Over the years, successive Administrations have tended to limit
the number of the staff and outside consultants to levels that are unrealistic in
relation to OSTP's policy and program responsibilities. The presently authorized
staff is fifteen positions. Eleven of these are filled and there are about fifteen
others on detail from other agencies. The budget for Fiscal Year 1989 is about
$1.7 million.
The Commission recommends that the President strengthen
the Office of Science and Technology Policy by appointing
outstanding professionals to the four posts of Associate
Director. Part-time assignments of Associate Directors to
other bodies in the Executive Office, such as the NSC staff,
should be explored,-as well as arrangements to achieve close
coupling with the budgetary and legislative staffs.
The Commission further recommends a substantial
strengthening of the professional staff support of the OSTP
as an essential step in the invigoration of the S&T advisory
function.
S&T Policy Analysis.
For the President to have the best assessments of major policy options involving
S&T, the Assistant and OSTP need clear-cut authority and suitable resources for
eliciting independent policy-oriented analytical work outside of the Executive
Branch. The National Research Council (the operating arm of the National
Academies of Science and Engineering and the Institute of Medicine) can provide
in-depth analysis of high quality. Additional analytical capabilities are found in
scientific societies, universities, other not-for-profit organizations, and established
technical consulting firms. In addition, the Congressional support agencies (the
Office of Technology Assessment, the Congressional Research Service, the
Congressional Budget Office, and the Government Accounting Office) are
respected for the quality of their bipartisan reports dealing with matters of S&T.
The Commission recommends that the OSTP be funded for
commissioning outside analytical studies in depth.
15
Drawing on the Outside S&T Community
The range and quality of S&T advice needed by the President cannot be obtained
by depending solely on in-house competence. The President can often rely on the
departmental and agency staffs, but their expertise is usually narrowly focussed
and their advice is often colored by mission commitments and bureaucratic self-
interest. Furthermore, developments at the frontiers of science and technology are
diverse and their pace is accelerating. Not only does the President need the advice
of individual experts from the scientific and technical community outside the
Federal Government, but he also needs a responsive mechanism for securing their
collective judgments.
The Commission considered the organizational arrangement of the White House
Science Council (WHSC), which was established in 1982 by President Reagan's
first Science Adviser. Members of WHSC are appointed by and report to the
Adviser, and it is chaired by a council member.
The Commission also considered reliance on ad hoc panels. This approach, which
was employed during the Ford and Carter Administrations, can deal usefully with
specific questions. Without an overview committee, however, the early warning
and agenda setting function is lost and the findings of the panels cannot readily be
judged or their broader applicability determined.
Having considered the organizational alternatives, the Commission fully supports
the establishment of a Presidentially appointed S&T advisory group that reports to
the President through the Assistant for Science and Technology, who serves as its
chairman. Many informed participants in the contemporary S&T scene strongly
support this approach.
The advisory group would both respond to the President's requests and initiate
studies in areas of national significance, consistent with the wishes of the
President. It would critically review S&T proposals, act as a sounding board for
the Assistant, and add authority to the Assistant's judgments on S&T issues. The
Advisory group's deliberations could also help resolve differences of views among
the Executive Departments and Agencies. Presidential appointment will be
important to recruit outstanding members of the group and, particularly, to elicit
the time commitment necessary if the group is to be effective and useful.
The Commission recommends that the President establish an
outside group of dedicated senior science and technology
advisors appointed by the President, headed by and reporting
to the President through the Assistant for Science and
Technology. Members of the group should agree to devote a
substantial portion of their time to its work. Ad hoc panels
should be convened for in-depth examinations of particular
subjects.
16
ENDNOTES
[1] The members of the Commission and Advisory Council are listed on the inside
front cover.
[2] See statement establishing the Commission by Dr. David A. Hamburg,
President, Carnegie Corporation of New York, in Appendix A.
[3] The current apparatus has evolved gradually over the past three decades; some
highlights of its organizational history are summarized in Appendix C.
[4] Suggestions for a Department of Science and Technology have arisen from
time to time over many decades. A Departmental reorganization of this magnitude
would likely entail very extensive analysis, discussion, and legislative attention.
This question has not been studied by the Commission.
17
APPENDICES
APPENDIX A
STATEMENT ESTABLISHING COMMISSION
Statement by Dr. David A. Hamburg, President,
Carnegie Corporation of New York
Issues Underlying Formation of the Commission
Since 1940 the pace of advance in basic scientific knowledge -- of the structure of
matter and life, of the nature of the universe, of the human environment and even
self-knowledge -- has accelerated dramatically. These scientific advances have
provided an unprecedented basis for technological innovation, especially in the
context of political and economic freedom. Such technological innovations have
pervasive, worldwide effects beyond prior experience.
Science and technology bear upon war and peace, health and disease, the economy
and society, resources and the environment -- indeed the entire human future. The
international economy, for example, is increasingly driven by developments in
science and technology: witness telecommunications, biotechnology, computers,
and the technical upgrading of established industries. No reminder is needed of
the immense impact on societies of weapons development and distribution. The
issues involve not only the existence of the new hardware but the uses of
hardware.
These trends are intrinsically worldwide in scope. Many problems historically
considered as internal might better be viewed as domestic aspects of international
problems. Moreover, the opportunities and problems arising out of modern
science and technology cut across traditional disciplines and sectors of society.
Thus, institutional innovations are needed that can transcend traditional barriers --
disciplinary, sectoral, and geopolitical.
Clearly, wise policy and administrative decision making in each sphere of life
depend on access to the best available knowledge and advice in the various fields
of science and technology. Sound advice requires analysis, and analysis requires a
broad base of research and development on which informed decisions can be
made. Decision makers, moreover, need an understanding of major facets of the
scientific enterprise itself.
The rapid and pervasive transformations resulting from science and technology
call for strengthening the institutional capability for objective analysis of critical
issues based on a broad foundation of knowledge and experience. The
government of the United States is in an extraordinary position to stimulate and
support such inquiries at a level far beyond what it has done up to now. In
18
addition, the states, the "laboratories of democracy," need better means for dealing
with the ongoing and potential applications of research and development.
The Federal Government and the states have an obligation to see that the country
exploits the opportunities and avoids the dangers inherent in modern science and
technology. This involves, among other desiderata, an understanding of the
impact of science and technology on both governmental and nongovernmental
tasks. It requires the establishment of a continuing, dependable capability for
analyzing policy questions in ways that take adequate account of their scientific
and technological aspects.
Science and technology policy itself should strive to meet the following goals: 1)
maintaining excellence, technical competence, and efficiency in the conduct of
research and development; 2) broadening participation in scientific activity as well
as in the benefits of applied science; 3) shaping the uses of science toward widely
shared ends -- for example, the relief of human suffering, economic well-being,
equitable distribution of resources, and the peaceful resolution of disputes; and 4)
encouraging scientists to participate analytically in the uses of science -- at the
interfaces of fact and value"= neither avoiding nor dominating the processes by
which the social uses of science are decided.
The nation needs several mechanisms, both governmental and nongovernmental,
for analyzing thoroughly and objectively the various options relating to two broad
questions: What can science do for society, and how can society keep the
scientific enterprise healthy? The capacity for providing the best possible analysis
and advice on long-term issues of great national importance must not only be built
into government operations themselves; the nation must institute ways of
capitalizing on the capability of its diverse nongovernmental institutions to gain
and provide such analysis and advice. This orientation emphasizes ways in which
science and technology can help to identify the early warning signals of emerging
problems and spot neglected or new opportunities for improving national and
international well-being.
The Challenge
Thoughtful policymakers have increasingly felt the need for intelligible and
credible syntheses of research related to important public policy questions. What
is the factual basis drawn from many sources that can provide the underpinning
for constructive options in the future? Pertinent information is widely scattered
among government agencies and quasi-governmental or nongovernmental
institutions. Moreover, it is very difficult for the nonexpert and sometimes even
for the expert to assess the credibility of assertions on emotionally charged issues.
In the current process of world transformation, studies are needed to tackle vital
and complex issues analytically rather than polemically. This means having
access to a wide range of high-quality information, analyses, and options.
Jumping to conclusions, or using a heavy ideological filter, can easily lead to
major mistakes, missed opportunities, or even disasters.
19
The central question for thoughtful consideration is how the various branches of
government can take careful account of science and technology in policy
formulation and implementation affecting all aspects of modern society. What are
the mechanisms government now has that are useful for analysis in each major
area of responsibility? Which mechanisms should be strengthened or created? How
can the various branches of government be organized to improve their operations
through the use of modern scientific advances?
Further, how can the government stimulate and utilize the full range of science
and technology in the scholarly community both in and out of government, taking
into account ethical considerations pertinent to each problem area? Questions
about government's role in specific facets of the scientific enterprise include:
1) Science policy: What are the conditions under which science flourishes in the
United States?
2) Technology policy: What are the conditions under which the science base can
fruitfully be drawn upon for useful technological innovation?
3) Technology assessment policy: What institutional mechanisms and analytical
methods are needed for ongoing assessment of major technologies with respect to
the humane, constructive uses of technology?
4) Science education policy: How can the nation achieve a technically literate
citizenry and a skilled work force at all levels of human endeavor as well as
prepare first-rate scientists and science-based professionals?
Carnegie Commission On Science, Technology, And Government
In November 1987, the Corporation convened a consultative group of experienced
scientists and administrators to examine the issues concerning the central role of
government in using and stimulating scientific and technological advances for
humane purposes. There was general consensus that problems in this regard exist
in the executive, legislative, judicial, and regulatory branches and that in-depth
analysis of these problems is needed if enduring improvements are to be made.
There was additional agreement that an effective approach to the problem would
be a commission that would work for about three years with a small high-quality
staff. The commission would be intersectoral in nature and include distinguished
former government officials, eminent scientists, and private sector leaders.
It was further recommended that the commission should consider the entire range
of the sciences -- physical, biological, behavioral, and social -- as well as the
technologies based on them. The main emphasis should be on mechanisms by
which the government can systematically assess the ways in which science can
contribute to the general well-being of the nation, with special emphasis on the
most serious social problems. Mechanisms for sustaining the health of the
scientific enterprise should also be considered.
20
The recommendations of the consultative group were adopted at the Corporation's
February 17 meeting of the board of trustees, and the new Carnegie Commission
on Science, Technology, and Government was duly created with an initial
$500,000 grant.
In addition to eminent scientists, the Commission includes former government
officials who have served at high levels in all branches of the government.
Leaders from nongovernmental sectors of American society are also included.
Co-chairs of the Commission are Joshua Lederberg, president of The Rockefeller
University, and William T. Golden, president of the New York Academy of
Sciences and editor of Science and Technology Advice to the President, Congress,
and Judiciary (Pergamon Press, 1988).
Executive director and member of the Carnegie Commission is David Z.
Robinson, most recently executive vice president and treasurer of the Corporation.
Dr. Robinson, who received a Ph.D. in physics from Harvard University, is a
former research physicist and was a staff member of the President's Science
Advisory Committee. He will continue to serve Carnegie Corporation as senior
counselor to the president.
The Commission will organize studies, issue interim reports, and make its final
recommendations in about three years, with a two-year follow-up period. It will
be assisted by an advisory council.
21
APPENDIX B
LIST OF PRESIDENTIAL S&T APPOINTMENTS
EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board
Office of Management and Budget
Associate Director for Human Resources
Associate Director for National Security and International Affairs
Deputy Associate Director, National Security Division
Associate Director for Natural Resources, Energy and Science
National Security Council
Special Assistant for Arms Control
Special Assistant for Defense Policy
Special Assistant for Intelligence Programs
Special Assistant for International Programs/Technology Affairs
Central Intelligence Agency
Deputy Director for Intelligence
Deputy Director for Science and Technology
Council on Environmental Quality
3 Members
Office of Science and Technology Policy
4 Associate Directors
CABINET DEPARTMENTS
Department of Agriculture
Assistant Secretary for Science and Education
Department of Commerce
Undersecretary for Oceans and Atmosphere (NOAA)
Assistant Secretary for Telecommunications (NTIA)
Assistant Secretary and Commissioner of Patents and Trademarks
Director, National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST)
Assistant Secretary for Productivity, Technology and Innovation
22
Department of Defense
Assistant Secretary, Production and Logistics
Assistant Secretary, Command and Control (C3I)
Director, Defense Research and Engineering
Assistant Secretary, Health Affairs
Department of Education
Assistant Secretary, Educational Research and Improvement
Department of Energy
Deputy Secretary
Undersecretary
Assistant Secretary, Conservation and Renewable Energy
Assistant Secretary, Defense Programs
Assistant Secretary, Environment, Safety and Health
Assistant Secretary, Fossil Energy
Assistant Secretary, International Affairs and Energy Emergencies
Assistant Secretary, Nuclear Energy
Department of Health and Human Services
Assistant Secretary for Health
Surgeon General, Public Health Service
Director, National Institutes of Health
Department of Housing and Urban Development
Assistant Secretary for Policy Development and Research
Department of the Interior
Science Advisor
Assistant Secretary, Land and Minerals Management
Assistant Secretary, Water and Science
Department of Labor
Assistant Secretary, Mine Safety and Health
Department of State
Undersecretary for Security Assistance, Science and Technology
Special Advisor, Arms Control Matters
Ambassador-at-Large, Non-Proliferation and Nuclear Energy Affairs
Office of Negotiations on Nuclear and Space Arms with USSR
Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Oceans and Environmental/Scientifio Affairs
Department of Transportation
Assistant Secretary, Policy and International Affairs
Administrator, Federal Aviation Administration
23
AGENCIES
Arms Control and Disarmament Agency
Director
Consumer Product Safety Commission
5 Commissioners
Environmental Protection Agency
Administrator
Deputy Administrator
Assistant Administrator for Research and Development
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Administrator
Deputy Administrator
National Science Foundation
Director
Deputy Director
National Science Board
Nuclear Regulatory Commission
5 Commissioners
24
APPENDIX C
HISTORY OF THE PRESIDENT'S S&T ORGANIZATION
All Presidents since Truman have recognized the value of tapping a broad range
of S&T knowledge from outside the government. President Truman appointed a
science adviser who served in the Office of Defense Mobilization and also had
direct access to him, though this access was seldom used. The systematic use by
the President of S&T advice began in 1957 with Sputnik. President Eisenhower
brought James Killian .into the White House as his Adviser, with the title of
Special Assistant to the President, and elevated the Science Advisory Committee
from the Office of Defense Mobilization so that it reported directly to him.
President Eisenhower sought advice in responding to Sputnik and to the competing
proposals of the military services. The Adviser also was involved in the
organization of NASA and the establishment of the Office of the Director of
Defense Research and Engineering and the Advanced Research Projects Agency in
the Department of Defense. There were important questions regarding technical
intelligence, and the possibilities for a nuclear test ban. Members of the
President's Science Advisory Committee were mobilized for these tasks, and many
of them spent substantial time in Washington. The Adviser also helped establish
high-level S&T posts in the departments and agencies. Toward the end of the
Eisenhower Administration, the Adviser and PSAC added to their work the
concern for the advancement of science.
President Kennedy kept the same bipartisan PSAC mechanism with some
systematic rotation of its members. In order to institutionalize the advisory
function, he established the Office of Science and Technology (OST) in the
Executive Office of the President. The title of Director of OST (confirmed by the
Senate) was added to that of Special Assistant to the President and Chairman of
the President's Science Advisory Committee. The Adviser's staff was transferred
from the White House to OST. The Adviser's portfolio broadened to include
health, civilian science and the environment.
The Adviser's role continued under President Johnson and through President
Nixon's first term. During this period, the Adviser and PSAC were deeply
involved in national security issues particularly as related to the Vietnam war,
arms control and the treaty to eliminate biological weapons.
After the election in 1972, President Nixon abolished both OST and PSAC. These
actions appeared to derive from two principal concerns. One was that former
PSAC members had opposed the President's position in testifying before the
Congress on anti-ballistic missile defense. The other was the disclosure of the
existence of a PSAC panel report questioning the development of a supersonic
25
transport, a project that had been strongly supported by the President. Perhaps the
most important underlying factor was the cumulative effect of years of strain
between the White House and the academic community over the Vietnam war, and
the perception by the White House staff that PSAC was part of that community.
President Nixon added the duties of Science Adviser to those of the Director of
the National Science Foundation. His advisory work concentrated on energy
R&D, problems in industrial R&D, agricultural research, and academic-industrial
cooperation.
President Ford asked Vice-President Rockefeller to recommend appropriate
organization for S&T advice to the President. The OST function was resurrected
in the Executive Office by an Act of Congress in 1976 in the form of the Office
of Science and Technology Policy. President Ford reestablished the Adviser's
position in the White House and created the President's Committee on Science
and Technology, authorized by the legislation, which worked particularly on
energy and individual research issues.
Presidents Carter and Reagan named their science advisers after their inauguration.
Although the President's Committee was not continued, President Carter's Adviser
appointed ad hoc panels of non-government scientists and engineers to advise him
on certain issues. He dealt with questions such as the MX missile, the test ban,
space policy and air quality standards.
In 1982, President Reagan's Adviser established a White House Science Council
of outside consultants that reported to the Adviser, rather than to the President.
During this Administration, the Adviser has dealt with matters such as
strengthening basic research, the National Aerospace Plane, Stealth technology, the
Strategic Defense Initiative, and international S&T agreements.
26
Summary of a Plan
for
Conducting a Needs, Alternatives and Feasibility Study
on
Improving the Research and Analysis Capability
of
The Office of Science and Technology Policy
The Executive Office of the President
Study Sponsored by
The Carnegie Commission on Science and Technology
10 Waverly Place, New York, New York 10003
Performed by
Professor William G. Wells, Jr.
and Dr. Mary Ellen Mogee
The George Washington University
Washington, D.C.
1
INTRODUCTION
In April 1988, the Carnegie Corporation of New York
established the Carnegie Commission on Science and Technology,
co-chaired by Joshua Lederberg, president of The Rockefeller
University, and William T. Golden, president of the New York
Academy of Sciences. Its major purpose is to assess the
processes by which the Federal Government and the States
incorporate scientific and technological knowledge into policy
and administrative decision making.
The Commission is sponsoring a series of special studies
related to its major purpose with respect to the Congress, the
Executive Branch and the Judiciary as well as the States. For
example, the Commission issued a major report on October 24,
1988, titled, Science & Technology and The President. While the
Commission's mandate covers all parts and levels of government,
it has given priority attention to how the President gets.
scientific and technical advice and assistance.
It is in the context of this series of studies that a needs,
alternatives and feasibility study is being conducted on
improving the research and analysis capability of the Office of
Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) in the Executive Office of
the President. Along with an assessment of the needs, a number
of key issues and concerns related to feasibility or workability
of various alternatives will be addressed.
While a full needs assessment has not yet been completed, a
preliminary review of Congressional oversight and budget hearings
as well as discussions with knowledgeable individuals --
including some former presidential science advisors -- suggest
there is a sufficient basis to perform this study.
STUDY APPROACH
The "Needs" Question
An early and critically important facet of the study is to
examine as fully as possible the "needs" question. This entails
a review of the legislative foundations and expectations for
OSTP, various appraisals of past OSTP performance bearing on its
research and analysis capabilities (internal and external), and
various prior suggestions for improving OSTP performance.
Another part of the "needs" question will be an examination
of how OSTP's role may have changed over time due to the
increasing complexity and expanding range of issues facing the
President which involve science and technology. Examples are the
urgency of dealing with environmental-energy issues, industrial
competitiveness, and the increasing internationality of many
issues.
1
The output of this examination will take the form of a
"Statement of Requirements" or "Criteria" related to improving
OSTP's research and analysis capability. More specifically, it
must be determined what are the features of past and current OSTP
operations -- in terms of the quality of information, analysis,
advice and decision making -- which may have been absent and need
to be added or are in need of improvement. In short, the
"criteria" resulting from this examination will be used to
analyze the various alternatives noted earlier. Examples of such
"criteria" may be as follows:
Rapid response capability for information and analyses.
Close interaction between OSTP and other sources of
research and analysis support (e.g., the agencies, the
National Research Council) which includes familiarity
with presidential issues.
Capability for broadly based analyses which have high
credibility.
Degree of insulation from "fire-fighting" pressures.
Ability to analyze science and technology-related
policies and programs cutting across federal agencies
and departments.
Alternatives Examination
A number of alternatives -- as noted earlier -- will be
examined in light of the "needs and criteria" analysis. The
alternatives fall into four categories:
Expanding the size and scope of OSTP.
Expanding/enhancing existing organizational support
arrangements within the Federal Government (e.g., the National
Science Foundation, the various departments and agencies).
O Expanding/enhancing current non-governmental support
capabilities (e.g., the National Research Council -- NAS/NAE/IOM,
various non-profit organizations which provide an array of
services to government).
Establishing a dedicated entity which would be external
to the Federal Government, initially, but which could eventually
become a part of or be funded by the Government -- in whole or in
part.
2
NOTE: An important point to underscore is that the various
alternatives should not be considered as mutually exclusive.
Important Concerns Related to Feasibility or Workability
Each of the alternatives identified in the study will, as
discussed above, be examined in light of the criteria arising
from the "needs" review. An extension of this review will also
require consideration of a number of other issues which may not
fall clearly in the domain of criteria but which are important to
the overall analysis in one way or another.
The following is a listing of such issues or concerns -- along
with brief explanations:
O Financial acceptability: there are federal budget
increase implications -- albeit modest for each of the
alternatives except -- at least initially -- for establishing a
dedicated entity outside the Federal Government.
The
acceptability issue in the latter alternative is whether private
sources would be willing to support such a capability for several
years on an experimental basis.
O
Political and Public Acceptability: each of the
alternatives must be reviewed in light of potential political
support or opposition within the Congress, the Executive Branch
and the scientific and engineering communities.
O
Relationship Between OSTP and Research and Analysis
Arrangements: items included under this heading include
such matters as OSTP's governance role relative to the research
and analysis supporter, OSTP operating policies and procedures,
OSTP degree of exclusiveness, and the security and
confidentiality of work and communications performed for OSTP.
O Experiences of Various Research and Analysis Support
Organizations: clearly of major relevance will be the
experiences of a number of organizations -- inside and outside
the Federal Government. For example, there are the federally
funded research and development centers; the National Research
Council -- NAS/NAE/IOM complex; and, dedicated Congressional
entities such as the Office of Technology Assessment, the
Congressional Research Service, and the General Accounting
Office.
3
o Legal Issues: in varying degrees, a number of legal
issues arise with respect to the various alternatives. These
include the application of various federal laws such as the
Freedom of Information Act, the Federal Advisory Committee Act,
and an increasing number of laws and regulations related to
conflict of interest considerations.
O
Organizational Structure, Size and Scope: key items to
be considered in these areas include the need for new or
modified organizational structures, the scope of issues and
operations, estimates of "sizing" in terms of personnel numbers
and competencies, and the degree of outreach to various
communities and organizations.
Uniqueness or Comparative Advantages: this topic refers
to an examination of the alternatives in terms of what are the
special comparative advantages possessed in relation to other
alternatives.
SUMMARY
The fundamental questions of this study are these:
Are there needs or requirements for improved research and
analysis capabilities for OSTP?
If so, what are the main alternatives for meeting the
needs?
O
What are the advantages and disadvantages of the various
alternatives in the context of the needs and associated
criteria?
How feasible or workable do the various alternatives seem
to be?
4
I
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
June 13, 1990
MEMORANDUM FOR ROGER B. PORTER
FROM:
D. ALLAN BROMLEY
An-
SUBJECT:
CANCER RISKS FROM ELECTROMAGNETIC RADIATION
As you note in your memorandum of April 29 to Governor Sununu there are now two
recent reports dealing with the subject of potential carcinogenicity of electromagnetic
fields at frequencies associated with electrical power generation and use--one from EPA
and one from OTA.
Two of my old colleagues at Yale have been interested in this field for some time and
have taken rather strong issue with the ota report in particular. They are a husband
and wife team, Eleanor and Robert Adair. Eleanor is associated with the Pierce
Foundation in New Haven and is a physiologist while Bob is the Sterling Professor of
Experimental Physics at Yale and for a number of years has been Chairman of the
Physics Section of the National Academy of Sciences. In the recent past both have
devoted substantial effort to understanding the literature in this field and Eleanor has
been involved in some of the relevant experimental work. On the basis of these
activities they have concluded that there is no acceptable evidence supporting the
alleged linkage between carcinogenesis and exposure to the lower level fields typical at
60 Hertz.
Indeed, in a recent statement from the American Physical Society, it was pointed out
that the recent literature demonstrated a most peculiar dose sensitivity where the
alleged carcinogenesis appeared to increase as the field strength to which the subject
was exposed decreased. Given that rather amazing data, the American Physical Society
suggested that an obvious conclusion was that the public should be protected by being
subjected to sufficiently intense fields so that the carcinogenesis affect (if real) would be
suppressed!
I am enclosing herewith a copy of a paper entitled Are Biological Effects of Weak ELF
Fields Possible? that Bob Adair produced for delivery at a recent meeting of the
Electromagnetic Energy Policy Alliance (EEPA) recently here in Washington. He
intends to publish it in the American Journal of Physics sometime in the near future.
I was particularly taken by Bob's evaluation of the ELF field effects within the
framework of what Langmuir at General Electric long ago described as pathological
science and for which he gave a set of identification rules (see pages 30-31).
Although I may have missed some key point somewhere along the line, I am afraid that
I must class this ELF activity with cold fusion and just to show that this sort of thing is
not always unique to the U.S. polywater in the Soviet Union.
Enclosure
cc: Governor Sununu
Are Biological Effects of Weak ELF Fields Possible?
Robert K. Adair
Department of Physics
Yale University
Abstract
The physics of the interaction with tissues, cells, and cell mem-
branes of weak ELF electromagnetic fields is reviewed. Because of the
high electrical conductivity of tissues, the coupling of external fields -
in air - to tissue is very weak; ≈ 10⁻⁸ at 60 herts. Thus moderate ex-
ternal fields induce fields in tissue that are very small and much smaller
than the fluctuating electrical fields in tissue and cell material that fol-
low from stochastic fluctuations in electron densities. The magnitude
of these (Johnson) noise fields is defined thermodynamically to be pro-
portional to VkT Av where k is Boltsmann's constant, T ≈ 310°F
is the absolute temperature of living matter, and Ди is the frequency
band width over which the noise is considered. Consequently, weak
ELF fields will be masked by noise and have no biological consequence
at the cell level unless they act over very narrow frequency bands such
as is afforded by resonances.
The class of possible resonances on the cell level is then examined
and these resonances are shown to be incompatible with cell charac-
teristics and the thermodynamic requirement that the mean resonance
energy be no smaller than kT = 1/40 eV = 4.3. 10⁻²¹ J. Moreover, if
such resonances are to be narrow and have a small width Sv ≈ 1 hertz,
they must persist for a time St ≈ 1/8v ≈ 1 second which is very much
longer than characteristic interaction times in condensed matter of the
order of 10⁻¹¹ seconds.
Various esoteric mechanisms (e.g. chaos, soliton effects, Bose-Ein-
stein collective effects) are discussed briefly and shown to fail to im-
pinge on the thermodynamic constraints.
Hence, we conclude that any demonstrated biological effects of weak
ELF fields on the cellular level would indicate that such activities op-
erate outside of the scope of conventional physics in much the same
way as parapsychology and extrasensory perception.
1
1 Introduction
As a scientist myself - genus physicist - I have long looked with interest
over the shoulder of my wife, Eleanor R. Adair, in the course of her work on
the physiology and psychology of thermoregulation; work that brought her
to use moderately intense microwaves to induce a thermal load of a special
and manageable character on primates such as squirrel monkeys - and Ellie
herself.
Since the physics of the interaction of the electromagnetic fields with
the biological tissues interested me, as well as Ellie, I began to pay atten-
tion to the study of the biological effects of non-ionizing electromagnetic
radiation as an interested observer with some qualifications. Last year, I
accompanied Ellie to a meeting of the Bioelectromagnetics Society at Tus-
con in the category of "significant other". Armed with my spousal badge
I attended a session of the society. Later, I expressed my bewilderment to
one of the many able people at the meeting at the enthusiasm which part of
the audience received some papers that presented very dubious evidence for
supposed biological effects of very weak ELF (extra-low-frequency) electro-
magnetic fields; effects that I considered quite implausible. Commiserating
with me, he told me of a meeting of parapsychologists he had attended for
curiosity which he said was very similar to the session I had just attended.
The existence of ESP effects was taken for granted by speakers and audi-
ence who considered that the only questions of interest were the elucidation
of the exact character of the phenomena. And the fact that the data as
presented were scarcely above noise at best, and that no results were ever
confirmed independently in any detail, seemed to bother no one. Of course
the parapsychology society elected officers, gave prizes to one another, etc.
I considered the parallel weH-taken. I find evidence for biological effects
of very weak electromagnetic fields about as convincing as the evidence
for telekinesis and very much of the same character. Moreover, it seems
that they are almost equally difficult to understand on the basis of our
conventional understanding of the physical universe. And of course, I can
disprove neither.
Since any discussion of difficulties that arise upon attempts to find a
physical basis for biological effects of low intensity, ELF, fields must address
experimental claims, a brief summary of some salient features of many of
those claims is in order. Here I quote an OTA "background paper¹" written
1. Nair, M.G. Morgan, and H.K. Florig; U.S. Congress, Office of Technological As-
2
for the Office of Technological Assessment (OTA) (the emphasis is mine):
u findings at the cellular level display considerable complexity includ-
ing resonant responses or 'windows' in frequency and field strength, complex
time dependencies, and dependence on the ambient DC magnetic field cTe-
ated by the earth. For these reasons ELF fields appear to be an agent to
which there is no known analog. in the case of fields it is not known
what measures or exposures or 'dose' are relevant. it may not be safe to
assume that if ELF field exposure leads to health risks, exposure to stronger
fields or exposure to longer periods is worse than exposure to weaker fields
or briefer periods."
Parapsychologists, you have met your match!
For most of us, the accurate description in the OTA report of research
in this field is, alone, enough to impeach that research.
But we proceed: In the OTA "background paper" quoted above, there
can be found a statement that reads, "studies have demonstrated un-
equivocally that the membranes of cells can be sensitive to even fairly
weak externally imposed low frequency electromagnetic fields." Sad experi-
ence has taught me to check my wallet when any one says, "In all honesty
Hence, in the same spirit, I automatically translated "demonstrated un-
equivocally" to "failed to demonstrate"2. Since purported effects on the
cellular level, seem to constitute the cornerstone of the set of loose-knit
views that suggest to some that we should be wary of very low-level low
frequency electromagnetic fields, I will take a little time now to suggest why
it is that none of the eminent physicists and biophysicists with whom I have
discussed these matters believe in the reality of such effects.
In brief, in any material the charge density fluctuates thermally ac-
cording to thermodynamic imperatives generating fluctuating electric fields.
Since the electric fields in tissues and the cells that make up tissues are much
larger than the fields from low level external ELF fields, those external fields
cannot be expected to have significant biological effects.
Although there are other sources of biological noise, such as noise gener-
ated by muscle excitation and activity, electrokinetic noise from squeezing
of electrolyte through tissues, and the 1/f noise from cell membrane activity,
that contribute fields as great as 0.1 V/m at frequencies less than 100 hertz, I
emphasize the thermal noise inasmuch as the magnitude of that noise stems
sessment, Biological Effects of Power Frequency Electric & Magnetic Fields - Background
Paper, OTA-BP-E-53 (Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, May 1989)
²I must admit, that having read previously a preliminary paper by the same authors
that expressed deep fears of electric alarm clocks, I was a bit prejudiced.
3
from fundamental thermodynamic bases - not unrelated to the second law of
thermodynamics - and must constitute an irrefutable constraint on biology.
In the quantitative features of my discussion of the effects of low fre-
quency, low intensity, electromagnetic fields on biological materials, I will
consider especially 60 hertz oscillations, electric field strengths that do not
exceed 300 V/m in air and magnetic field strengths no greater than 0.5 gauss
(or 50 µT), the strength of the earth's field - the mean electric field at the
earth's surface is about 100 V/m. The fields will, in general, be near-fields,
and not radiative. Indeed, for the most part, we will not be talking about
radiation - non-ionizing or otherwise.
2 External Fields and Noise Fields
2.1 Coupling of Tissue and Air for Electric Fields
For environmental concerns, the immediate measure of possible hazard is
that field in the air about the tissues. Since the tissues are conducting, a
constant external electric field will induce almost no field at all in the tissues.
However, an alternating external electric field will induce an alternating
electric field in the tissue. But, at low frequencies, v, the fields E, in the
tissues will be very much smaller than the fields E₀ in the air external to
the tissues³;
(1)
where w = 2πv is the angular frequency and 01 ≈ 1 S/m is the conduc-
tance of the electrolyte saturating the tissue. At 60 hertz, Eᵢ ≈ 10⁻⁸ Eₜ,.
Hence, for fields in the air of 300 V/m, we can expect field strengths in the
conducting tissues of about 3 10⁻⁶ V/m.
The cell membrane will have a specific resistance of the order of Pmem ≈
10⁵
10⁷ ohms and can then be considered as an insulator relative to
the tissue electrolyte. In the valid approximation that the resistivity of the
membrane material, Pmem » Pl, the resistivity of the tissue, the field in the
membrane, Eₘₑₘ of thickness d of a cell of radius T will be about
≈
(2)
³K.R. Foster and H.P. Schwan, in CRC Handbook of Biological Effects of Electromag-
netic Fields, p. 27, C. Polk and E. Postow, Eds. (CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL, 1986)
4
Hence, taking a typical cell radius of 10 µm and a membrane thickness of
50 A, for a field in the tissue electrolyte E, = 3. 10⁻⁶ V/m, induced by
an external field of 300 V/m, we can expect a field of ≈ 10⁻² V/m in the
insulating membrane.
The fields in different areas of air, tissue, and cell, are shown in Fig. 1
normalized to a field in the air of 300 V/m. Too often, discussion of the
effects of weak fields is complicated by misunderstandings concerning the
region in which the field is defined. Since we are addressing environmental
concerns, the fields labeled "external" in this report are always fields in the
air about the tissues.
4 10⁶ V/m E=0.04 V/m E=EₖT =130 V/m
60 hertz
Tissue
Electrolyte
Cytoplasm
Air
Cell Membrane
300 V/m
3.10⁻⁶ V/m
10⁻²V/m
Figure 1: Electric fields in tissues, cell membranes, and cell cytoplasm, induced by
ELF external fields in the air outside of the tissue. The fields labeled above describe
an externally induced field in the cell membrane that is equal to the Johnson noise,
from DC to 100 herts, measured from the cytoplasm interior to the cell to the
electrolyte outside of the cell across the cell membrane. The very large air field
so postulated is larger than the dielectric breakdown strength for air of about 106
V/m and is then unobtainable in practice. The lower numbers describe the fields
induced in the tissue and membrane by an external field of 300 V/m.
Experiments have shown that some fish - especially sharks - do respond
to very weak electric fields. These are fields in the water surrounding the
fish and are, therefore, strongly coupled to the watery tissue of the fish. In
salt water, the fields are more strongly coupled by a factor of ≈ 10* than
fields in air to tissue. With special receptors that extend over lengths of
tens of centimeters, and which act as low pass filters, the response of sharks
to quite small fields - as fields as small as 0.5 µV/m have been detected -
does not violate thermal noise limits.
5
Indeed the size and complexity of the mechanisms required for sharks to
sense such fields - and then sense the presence of hidden prey who generate
the fields - is a kind of evidence for the general harmlessness of the fields
of comparable size, 3-10 µV/m, induced in tissue by external fields of 300
V/m in air. The weak signals are detected by the shark's special receptors
- the ampullae of Lorenzini - in as sensitive a manner and processed in as
subtle a fashion' as the signals of a few photons from a sixth magnitude
star are detected by the human eye and processed by the optical system
and brain. Even as the ear can detect sound at the thermal agitation level
and the nose can detect a very few molecules, the senses have been honed
by the imperatives of evolution so that the physical limits of sensitivity are
approached.
Then, when as subtle and extensive a system as the shark possesses is
required to detect weak fields, it seems evident that those fields are most
unlikely to effect biological systems "accidently". And the difference between
the strength of fields that will have biological consequences and the weak
fields that concern us can reasonably expected to be very great; perhaps
like the difference between starlight from a faint star and the midday July
sunlight that inflicts sunburn.
2.2 Thermal Electrical Noise
Since the most important fundamental constraint on effects of very weak
fields, is the requirement that they not be masked by thermal noise, we
present a heuristic explanation of the Johnson-Nyquist noise designed to
suggest the salient features of that noise. We proceed by describing thermal
noise at a frequency v in a sample of material by analyzing an imaginary
experiment. The sample is inserted as a resistive load R in an LC oscillator
circuit such as that shown at the left of Fig. 2 where the circuit elements
are chosen such that
v -
(3)
From the equipartition theorem the mean energy of the oscillator is
W = kT where T is the ambient (absolute) temperature. But as the circuit
oscillates it will lose energy (and then cool down below the ambient temper-
ature) as a consequence of the resistance of the sample. The rate of energy
See W.F. Pickard; IEEE Trans. Biomed. Engr. 35, 243 (1988).
6
loss or loss power P will be
(4)
Estimating the effective resonance width w = w/Q
P = dW = = = = Aw kT = (5)
With a more careful evaluation of the effective resonance width,
(6)
The effect of this action will be to transfer heat from the oscillator, which
is then cooled below the ambient temperature, to the resistive sample, which
is then heated above the ambient temperature. But this is in violation of
the second law. Hence, if the system is to remain at thermal equilibrium
(and we are to avoid violating the second law), the sample must generate
electrical energy at a rate P at the frequency v that will be fed back to the
oscillator. Hence, the noise power generated thermally by the sample must
be equal to P. That power is independent of the magnitude of the resistance
of the sample and must hold for any frequency v even as we could tune the
oscillator to different frequencies.
If we write P = U²π/R where UₖT is the noise voltage across the re-
sistance R, we find the usual formula for that voltage UkT generated by
Johnson noise over a frequency interval ,
U²π = 4R kT Av
(7)
Although this noise voltage must follow from thermal fluctuations in the
charge density in the sample material, the result - characteristic of ther-
modynamic results - is independent of detail; in particular of the detailed
character of the charge carriers which may be conduction electrons, ions, or
bound charges sensibly displaced by thermal buffeting.
Often the noise fields will be of more interest than the noise voltages -
which are, however, better defined. Taking the sample as a cube with a side
d for convenience, R = p/d, where P is the characteristic resistivity of the
material,
U²π = 4 kT and taking Ekt
(8)
7
C
L
V
C
R
V
R
Sampl
Figure 2: At the left, diagrams showing the oscillator circuit used to define the
Johnson noise from a sample of material. At the right is shown a symbolic procedure
for the measurement of noise voltage generated by an element of material and the
equivalent circuit for that procedure.
#*
average noise voltage Uₖₜ can then be expressed as,
U²π = 4RkT V = kT Av and =
(10)
Using the above relations, and taking P = 1 Ω. m for tissue and a
frequency span Dv = 100 hertz - i.e. from DC to 100 hertz - we find that
the noise field⁵ generated in the electrolyte in a cubical volume the size of a
cell, 20 µm on a side, is about 0.015 V/m. This is about 5000 times larger
than the field of ≈ 3. 10⁻⁶ V/m induced in tissue by an external field of
300 V/m. If the volume is 7.5 cm on a side, containing Shylock's portion of
one pound of flesh, the mean noise field will be about 6. 10⁻⁸ V/m. This is
about the field generated in tissue by an external field of 6 V/m.
Hence, if external fields as small as 6 V/m - which generate fields in the
tissue as large as 6. 10⁻⁸ V/m are to have physiological consequences, the
physiological mechanisms must act collectively and coherently over a pound
of tissue.
2.4 Noise Fields in Cell Membranes
Perhaps the most popular "explanation" of the "significant" biological effects
of external low-level ELF electromagnetic fields that have been reported, is
that these effects derive from the effects of the electric fields on the complex
"We note that the thermal noise potential difference over 20 µm is but 3 uV. In general,
thermal noise voltages between different regions of tissue will be very much less than 1
uV.
9
properties of the cell membranes. External fields of from 1 to 50 volts per
meter have shouldered the most blame and there are claims⁶ of effects on
cells at field strengths in tissues as small as 10⁻⁶ volts per meter (which is
about that induced in the tissues by fields in air of 100 V/m.) Those fields
are presumed to modify such membrane activities as the opening and closing
of ion-conducting channels - hence the supposed effect of weak fields on the
calcium efflux - and the catalytic activity of membrane-associated enzymes.
Of course if externally imposed fields are to have any important effect, those
fields at the cell activity sites must not be swamped by the thermal Johnson
noise fields.
Certain processes such as the passage of ions through the cell membrane
walls may be likely defined by thermodynamic criteria and hence dependent
upon the potential difference - which is typically of the order of 50 mV -
between the cytoplasm interior to the cell and the electrolyte outside of the
cell. For such mechanisms the noise voltage across the membrane from the
relatively highly conducting interior cytoplasm to the conducting electrolyte
might be more significant than any local noise level⁷. The time average noise
level from cytoplasm to electrolyte, across the whole membrane of thickness
d ≈ 50 A, of a spherical cell of radius r = 10⁻⁵ m will be;
U²π = 4RkT Dv where Rₘₑₘ =
(11)
where the resistivity of the membrane material is taken as Pmem = 10⁶ Im.
With these values, Rₘₑₘ = 2.5 10⁵ Ω. Taking an ELF frequency band of
100 hertz, UₖT ≈ 6.5 10⁻⁷ V. This thermal noise voltage is probably much
smaller than the 1/f noise, possibly associated with the flow of ions through
cell membrane orifaces, and smaller by a factor of ≈ 10⁻⁵ than the normal
potential difference of 0.05 V across the cell wall.
Since this is a measure only of that noise generated at frequencies less
than ≈ 100 hertz, if the intrinsic time constants of the biological processes
are much smaller then RC ≈ 1/100 seconds, higher frequency electric fluc-
tuations will contribute to the processes and the effective magnitude of the
noise fluctuations will be larger. Conversely, if cell mechanisms exist with
"e.g. K.J. McLeod, R.C. Lee, and H.P. Ehrlich, Science 236, 1465 (1987)
The natural potential difference across the membrane will be of the order of 50 mV
to be compared with induced and noise voltages across the membrane and the thermal
kinetic energy of an ion of 3/2 kT ≈ 37 meV.
"These results are in accord with a more extensive discussion by Frank S. Barnes; CRC
Handbook ibid, page 121
10
time constants much longer than 1/100 of a second, the effective frequency
band width, and the effective noise, might be substantially smaller.
This noise voltage corresponds to a an electric noise field across a 50 A
thick membrane of Eₘₑₘ ≈ 130 V/m. Considering the relation, Eₘₑₘ ≈
1.5 (r/d) Et, we see that a field in the tissue of about 0.04 V/m would be
necessary to induce such a field in the membrane. In turn, the external field
required to produce such a field in tissue and membrane would be about
4. 10⁶ V/m, hence any effects of a field of 300 V/m would be swamped by
noise more than 1000 times larger. This hierarchy of fields is shown in Fig.
1.
It has been argued that the externally induced fields in the cell membrane
may affect such biological activities as the catalytic actions by membrane-
associated enzymes. If such induced fields are to affect the processes, those
fields must be greater than the fields due to thermal fluctuations. Since
these kinds of biological activities would appear to be local, determined not
by average fields over the whole cell membrane, but by conditions in a small
sector of the membrane with a volume no larger than d³, where d ≈ 50 A is
the membrane thickness, it would seem that it would be the local thermal
electric field fluctuations in such small regions that should be compared to
the induced fields.
Since the volume in question is quite small, and the effective noise fields
over small volumes are greater than for larger volumes, we might expect that
the local electric field noise would be much greater than that averaged over
the whole membrane. The electrical properties of such a small sector are
not necessarily simple but we can estimate that thermal noise generated in
a small quantity of membrane material proceeding as before by examining
the results of a hypothetical measurement of the voltage across the plates of
a parallel plate capacitor where an isolated cube of membrane material 50
A on a side is held between the plates. The time average of the fluctuating
noise voltage UₖT is again
U²ₓ = 4RkT V where now R = 10¹⁻¹ n
(12)
If we use the mean resistivity of the membrane material of P = 10⁶ Ω. m, for
the small sector, which is simplistic, and taking, again, only frequencies less
than 100 hertz, the mean noise voltage across this small, isolated, sample
will be ≈ 0.02 V. The mean thermal noise electric field over this frequency
is then Ekt ≈ 10⁶ V/m.
Although the specific values of the noise fields must be regarded with
11
reserve, and the effects of such fluctuations on biological processes is not
known, we can expect noise fields of this magnitude.
Since the fields Eᵢ in the conducting tissues are magnified in the insulat-
ing membranes such that Eₘₑₘ ≈ 1.5(r/d). Eᵢ, where r/d ≈ 2. 10³ for cell
radii of 10 µm, the field in the tissue must have a value E, ≈ 1000 V/m if
it is to induce a field in the membrane equal to the local noise field. And in
turn, only very large fields - of the order of 10¹¹ V/m in the air external
to the conducting tissue can be expected to generate such fields in tissues
and membrane⁹.
2.5 Electric Field Effects
Although the small values of the ratios of induced to noise electric fields
must largely exclude any possibility that those induced fields can induce
biological activity in cells, one can reach much the same conclusions using a
less broad brush by considering interactions in more detail. To be definite,
we consider fields of Et = 10⁻⁶ V/m in tissue, and Eₘ = 6. 10⁻³ V/m
in membranes 50 A thick of cells of radius r = 10⁻⁵ m, induced by external
fields of 300 V/m and we compare the energies transferred to the elements
to kT.
For membrane or tissue, the energy transferred by the field to an ion - or
any singly charged element - in tissue or membrane will not be much larger
than Eᵢ er ≈ 10⁻⁹ kT, where e is the electronic charge. Which is to say
neither the kinetic energy nor the direction of motion of a charged element
can be sensibly affected by such small fields.
An imposed external field will tend to align electric dipoles so that, even
in the face of thermal agitation, there will be a statistical excess of dipoles
aligned with the field. That proportion P which are aligned can be taken
as P ≈ W/kT where W is the alignment energy.
For reasons of symmetry and parity conservation, neither nuclei nor
atoms have permanent electric dipole moments but molecules as more
complex structures with less symmetry - may. Taking a characteristic mag-
nitude of such a dipole moment as er where, r = 1 A, the alignment energy
will be W ≈ Eₘer = 10⁻¹¹ kT. For a macromolecule 100 A long, the energy
will still be only ≈ 10⁻⁹ kT.
Although for very much larger fields, and for very much higher frequen-
cies, the constantly changing dipole orientations of molecules (such as water)
⁹Since the dielectric strength of air is only about 10⁶ V/m, such large fields could not
actually be sustained in air.
12
with large permanent dipole moments result in the transfer of thermal en-
ergy to the tissues, the small alignments induced by the small fields we are
considering cannot have a significant effect on the individual elements. Col-
lectively, the small macroscopic dipole fields produced by the sum of the
microscopic alignments serves only to reduce the effective field in a manner
parameterized by the dielectric constant K.
The energy per atom or molecule from the interaction of the fields with
induced moments will be very much smaller yet.
2.6 Magnetic Fields
Static Magnetic Fields
Unlike for electric fields, the conductivity of tissues provides little shielding
of cells from low frequency magnetic fields. However, the first thing that
a crosses a physicist's mind when "magnetic fields" come up, is that mag-
netism is fundamentally weak. Since the early years of this century, we have
known magnetism to be a relativistic consequence of electric phenomena. If
Heaven were a democracy instead of an autocracy¹⁰ and the Heavenly Sen-
ate established the speed of light as infinite, magnetism would immediately
disappear - presumably along with us. Hence, a physicist is immediately
doubtful as to the reality of biological effects supposedly generated by weak
magnetic fields.
Since magnetic fields exert no forces on stationary charges and act on
moving charges only in a direction normal to their motion, static magnetic
fields do not add - or subtract - energy from single charges. The magnetic
forces do change the direction of motion of charges but that effect - addressed
in more detail later - is extremely small compared to effects of thermal
fluctuations.
However, charged particles in orbit generate magnetic dipole moments
that interact directly with magnetic fields. Unconstrained by symmetries
and parity, molecules, atoms, and nuclei possess electric dipole moments μ
of the order of magnitude of
(13)
where, for atoms and molecules, m = me is the mass of the electron and
for nuclei m is the nuclear mass. The alignment energies for a field B
are then Bµ and for Be = 50 µT, the earth's field, these energies are of
"According to James Branch Cabell in Jurgen, it is Hell that is a democracy.
13
the magnitude of 10⁻⁷ kT for atoms and molecules and typically less than
10⁻¹⁰ kT for nuclei. Hence, the net alignment - and the net magnetization
of biological material induced by such weak fields is quite small (though
significant effects have been observed for very large fields B > 1T.) Such
alignments will result in a net (paramagnetic) magnetic moment in a volume
of material which in turn will interact with the field defining an energy. For
a volume of 10⁻¹⁵ m³, of the whole cell, this energy¹¹ will only be of the
magnitude of kT - more than 12 orders of magnitude less than the thermal
energy of the cell! (Some materials are diamagnetic; an external field induces
a small moment opposing the field. Arguments similar to those applied to
paramagnetic materials apply to the smaller diamagnetic moments.)
The calculation of paramagnetism assumes that the individual molecules
or atoms do not act collectively. But for ferromaghetic materials, all of the
atomic dipoles line up in macroscopic domains leading to magnetic suscept-
abilities greater by factors ≈ 10⁷ than for paramagnetic materials. Conse-
quently, an examination of the character of the one piece of biology that
is known to follow from the actions of a weak magnetic field - that is the
earth's field of about one-half gauss - on ferromagnetic matter in a cell
provides illuminating insights into the limitations of biomagnetic effects.
About 15 years ago, Richard Blakemore, than a graduate student study-
ing microbiology at the University of Massachusetts, found anaerobic bacte-
ria (single celled, of course) that, fearing fresh air, fled preferentially down-
wards guided by the lines of the earth's field. Even as you and I, their guide
was a compass of ferromagnetic material, in their case a chain about 2 µm
long made up grains of magnetite Fe₃O₄. A simple calculation shows that
the alignment energy in the earth's field Be is µBₑ ≈ 8 kT where µ is the
magnetic moment of the bacterial lodestone. This is enough to ensure effi-
cient alignment of the cell in the earth's field so that the creature swims in
the right direction; if the field is made weaker by half, the alignment - and
the directed swimming progress - is much impaired.
Hence, with the aid of ferromagnetic materials, a cell can - barely - sense
a 500 milligauss (50 µT) field. But with life-or-death not so dependent upon
11 The number N of aligned molecules in the volume induced by a field B will be ≈
N₀Bµ/kT, where No is the number of molecules (taken as water molecules) in the volume.
The energy of alignment will then be W ≈ NµB. For the canonical field of 50 µT and
11 = eh/2me, we find W ≈ kT.
"See Essay 14, by Charles Bean in, Fundamentals of Physics, D. Halliday and R.
Resnick, 3rd edition, Wiley, New York, 1988; and R.B. Frankel in CRC Handbook, p.169,
C. Polk and E. Postow, Eds. (CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL 1986)
14
the reading of magnetic maps for other kinds of life, Fe₃O₄ is found in few
other cells. And without the crafting of such compasses, we cannot expect
the effects of magnetic fields on cells to compete with thermal fluctuations.
Changing Magnetic Fields
Since life evolved in the presence of static magnetic fields of the order of
a gauss or 100 µT, the absence of biological effects of static fields should
not be surprising. But Mr. Faraday has shown us that changing magnetic
fields generate electric fields. Could 60 hertz oscillating magnetic fields pro-
duce electric fields of consequence - that is electric fields greater than those
generated by thermal noise. Using the integral form of Faraday's law
II
(14)
where S is the circumference of the cell and A the cross section, we estimate
the mean amplitude of the induced electric field around the perimeter of the
cell as
=
(15)
for a 60 hertz oscillating magnetic field of amplitude B = 500 milligauss
field acting on a cell of radius 10 µm.
Then how will this induced field compare with thermal noise fields at
low frequencies. Here we take fields across the whole cell squeezed to a
convenient cube d ≈ 20 µm on a side (as in Fig. 2) where the specific
resistance is taken as 1 ohm-m leading to a resistance across the cube of
1/d ≈ 5 10⁴ ohms. Using this value and taking a conservative frequency
band, Dv = 100 hertz,
U²π = 4RkT Av and 10⁻⁷ V
(16)
and noise field Ekt ≈ UkT/d ≈ 0.015 V/m. The noise fields are greater than
than the electric fields induced by the changing magnetic field by a factor
of about 10⁻. Hence, low frequency, low intensity, magnetic fields cannot
induce biological activity through interactions with individual cells.
Since EH X r and EkT X r-3/2, the induced electric field will be greater
than the noise field only for very sections of tissue greater than the size of
a cube 1 mm on a side containing ≈ 10⁶ cells.
In the next section on resonances, we address some resonant effects of
ELF magnetic fields and show that they cannot have biological consequences
either.
15
3 Resonances
3.1 Narrow Banding; Signal Averaging
In the description of thermal noise which is commonly used, the square of
the mean noise voltage is proportional to the frequency band width over
which the noise is measured - or relevant. Hence, if the acceptance of the
biological system is such that only a narrow band of frequencies initiate
the biological effects, the effective noise interference is reduced. Although
an effect that is enhanced by a resonance would constitute an expecially
effective frequency filter with a width inversely proportional to the effective
Q of the resonance, biological actions that act as band-pass filters are also
plausible¹³. In particular, those biological activities that have long intrinsic
time constants can act as simple, plausible, low pass filters. If an activity
requires a time of 0.01 seconds, it is plausible that perturbations that change
sign often in that time would have little over-all effect.
The effective width of the pass-band depends not only on the character-
istics of the biological system, but of the signal. A signal - e.g. an ELF
wave - that lasts a time t must have an intrinsic frequency spread Dv ≈ 1/t.
Hence if the resonance width δv ≈ v/Q is very narrow, δv < , the effec-
tive band width will be Д determined by the characteristics of the signal
rather than of the system. In that case, the effective frequency acceptance
will be inversely proportional to 1/t and the effective signal-to-noise will
be proportional to Vt. Or if the signal is averaged over a long time tmas,
the signal-to-noise will be much improved. But only if the effective system
width is small compared to 1/tmax. Weaver and Astumian¹⁻ suggest aver-
aging times tmar of the order of 1000 seconds (or about 20 minutes!). Such
a long averaging time could only be relevant if the intrinsic band width of
the system were as small as 1/1000 hertz; if the signal were tuned that ac-
curately; and if the time constant of the biological system were longer than
20 minutes. At 60 hertz - assuming a biological process with a Q ≥ 60, 000,
exquisitely tuned to 60 ± 0.001 hertz - the signal to noise voltage from a 20
minute exposure would be improved by a factor of V1000 ≈ 30 over a one
second exposure and a factor of about 250 over that from a single pulse.
Even with the factor of 250, which assumes an integration time of about
"There can be, and are, biological relaxation effects that admit transfer functions that
peak at low frequencies - very much as a band pass filter but these peaks are quite
broad.
"J.C. Weaver and R.D. Astumian, Science 247, 459 (1990)
16
20 minutes and a resonance width of 0.001 hertz, (centered, accidently, at
exactly 60 hertz) the field in the membrane of about 0.009 V/m, induced by
an external signal field of 300 V/m, would be much smaller than the noise
field of about 0.4 V/m.
At the long ELF wave-lengths, the electric field E must couple to a
resonance through a dipole interaction. We can make useful estimate of
a maximum magnitude of such an interaction energy by considering the
interaction of the field with the whole cell. The electric dipole moment P
per unit volume of cytoplasm will be P ≈ ε₀(K 1) . E where K is the
dielectric constant and K - 1 ≈ 80 as for water and the volume v of the cell
10 µm in diameter. Then the interaction energy. will be about
AU = E P ≈ 80 ≈ 10⁻⁹ kT
(17)
Here the membrane field which the cytoplasm sees is Eₘₑₘ ≈ 1.5E,r/d
where T is the cell radius, the membrane thickness is d ≈ 50 A, and E, ≈
3. 10⁻⁶ V/m is the field in the tissue induced by an external field of 300
V/m. Hence, the energy would appear to be insufficient to excite resonance
oscillations of the whole cell - even if the Q is sufficiently large so that the
energies of many cycles can be added coherently.
If a resonance is to be manifest, the damping of the resonance must be
sufficiently small that it will make at least one cycle without interruption.
If the resonance is to be in the ELF range, that cycle will take a very
long time in terms of characteristic molecular collision or interaction times.
Consequently, the resonance state must have a very small probability of
being interrupted if it is to be significant.
We can estimate the characteristic interaction time or energy exchange
time for the smallest elements in a solid as roughly ≈ 10⁻¹¹ sec. For example
this is about the mean-free-time for collision of a water molecule in water
that is considered naively as a gas. Then if the resonance is not to be
deexcited by an interaction acting as a collision of the second kind in 1/60
of a second, the probability of that deexcitation in an interaction must be of
the order of 10⁻⁹. So small a deexcitation probability is difficult to reconcile
with the large excitation probability required if the resonance is to be excited
by a weak, long-wavelength, electric field. If the cell element is as large as
the cell membrane or the cell itself, and if the Q is large so as to allow the
coherent contributions of many ELF cycles, the constraints are more severe.
Since some data that are claimed to constitute evidence for the biological
activity of weak ELF fields suggest that the fields act only over narrow
17
"windows" of frequency, and since any biological resonances that exist will
define narrow frequency bands with a reduction of noise in those bands, we
discuss the characteristics of a broad set of possible cell resonances.
In those discussions, we will emphasize the constraints imposed by the
character of the resonances and we will not take up either the coupling of
the resonances to the electromagnetic field or the damping time or Q of the
resonances in detail. However, both the character of the interaction and
the damping time pose serious problems if weak ELF fields are to excite
resonances.
3.2 Cyclotron Resonances
I will begin by discussing a particular model of effects on the cellular level.
Not just to demolish the model, but also - since the model was and is taken
seriously by many - to suggest something of the naiveté of the true-believers
in the field.
There is long-touted "evidence" that calcium ions pass through chick-
brain cell walls when the cells are subject to weak 16 hertz electromagnetic
fields. The code word is "calcium efflux". Liboff and McLeod then noticed
that under a magnetic field the order of (a little weaker, actually) of the
earth's field, that the cyclotron resonance frequency¹⁵ of calcium ions was
about 16 hertz. Perhaps this cyclotron resonance was, somehow, responsible
for the calcium efflux.
This idea was so well received that even journalists took note. Hence,
in the course of reading some magazine - I believe it was either the Na-
tional Enquirer or The New Yorker - my friend the eminent physicist Jack
Sandweiss read about this cyclotron resonance in some pseudoscience report
and erupted. The following analysis stems mainly from Jack¹⁶.
Liboff and McLeod¹⁷ suggested that the energy of the ion might well be
about 3.5 eV. But such an ion travels with a velocity of about 4100 meters
per second or 250 meters in 1/16 of a second - the circumference of a circle
"The cyclotron resonance frequency V = w/2x for a particle of mass m and charge q in
a magnetic field B is
w=9B
(18)
which is independent of the radius of the orbit or the energy of the ion. For a singly
charged calcium ion, a field of 0.42 gauss (42 µT) gives a frequency V = 16 herts. The
earth's field in the United States is about 0.50 gauss or 50 µT.
16 Jack Sandweiss, Bioelectromagnetics, (in press).
11 A.R. Liboff and B.R. McLeod; Bioelectromagnetics 9, 39 (1988), and earlier papers.
18
Moreover, if the vibration is of consequence to us in our concern over ex-
ernal effects on cells, the vibrational energy that derives from some coupling
with the external environment must be greater than kT, the characteristic
thermal energy of any oscillator. Then
(20)
Here, A is the amplitude of the vibration and UmaI the maximum value of a
characteristic velocity while w = v 2π the angular frequency of vibration.
Since the magnitude of the amplitude is limited by the size of the cell,
his thermodynamic condition places limits on the magnitude of M and
These limits are severe. Hence the cell cannot entertain low frequency
echanical oscillations.
It is interesting to look at a specific oscillation in detail to gain some
ppreciation for the strength of the prohibition. To maximize M, we choose
hypothetical oscillation of a whole cell where a spherical cell of quiescent
adius T = 5 µm vibrates in a quadrupole mode changing from a prolate
) an oblate spheroid in the course of a cycle as suggested by Fig. 3. We
ake the density of the cell cytoplasm as 1 gm/cm³ and set the energy of the
ibration at kT ≈ 4.1 10⁻²¹ J which in turn sets the amplitude of the 60
rtz oscillation, measured in the direction of the axis, as about 1 µm. This
1 substantial oscillation - the radius in the direction of the axis changes
about 20%.
are 3: The envelope of the amplitude of quadrupole oscillations of a cell or
us 5 µm vibrating at a rate of 60 heriz with an energy kT.
In the course of the oscillation, the kinetic energy of motion of the cell
1
erial must be stored in an energy associated with the distortion. Assum-
that the cytoplasm is effectively an incompressible liquid, this potential
20
+
+
+
C
L
(a)
(b)
(c)
Figure 4: (a) Schematic mechanical resonance; (b) Equivalent LC circuit; (c)
Electro-mechanical resonant system.
Such a circuit will be incited thermally such that the mean total energy
of kT will oscillate between storage in magnetic and electric fields⁵.
We note from Eq. 21 that if the frequency is to be low, the product LC
must be large. The capacitance is limited by the size of the cell. The largest
capacitance that would seem to be evident is the capacitance between the
inner and outer surface of the cell membrane. Taking the thickness of the
membrane as 50 A and the dielectric constant as 2.5, Cₘᶜₘ ≈ 6. 10⁻¹² f.
Then, for a resonant frequency of V = 60 hertz, the inductance must be
≈ 10⁶ henrys!
It is difficult to design an ideal paradigmatic cell inductance. However,
we note that in the absence of ferromagnetic materials in cells and in the
absence of a natural source of many current turns, we should expect that
the characteristic cell inductance should be of a magnitude such that L =
Hur ≈ 10⁻¹¹ H; too small by 17 orders of magnitude! Truly, Nature may be
much more clever that we think, but not by 17 orders of magnitude. There
can be no 60 hertz LC cell resonances²¹.
3.5 Electro-Mechanical Resonances
It is possible to envisage 60 hertz resonances where the potential energy
≥ kT is stored capacitatively in electric fields while the kinetic energy ≥ kT
is manifest in the motion of cell elements as suggested schematically in Fig.
2n1 have heard, however, that an extensive Fourier analysis of a large number of elec-
troencephalagrams of patients in American hospitals showed unmistakable evidence of a
60 hertz component. A similar study of European records showed a 50 herts component.
The difference was ascribed by the investigators to the faster rate of living in the U.S.
(This was not from the OTA report previously quoted.)
22
4c. Again, the storage of kinetic energy requires such large amplitudes of
motions of such substantial portions of the cell, that resonances of this kind
can be safely excluded along with the purely mechanical resonances²¹.
3.6 Nuclear Magnetic Resonances
The interaction of an ambient magnetic field such as the earth's field Bₑ
with the magnetic moment H of a nucleus (with non-zero spin) generates a
torque on the spinning nucleus that induces the nucleus to precess about the
direction of the field. Even as the rotating magnetic moment generates an
oscillating magnetic field normal to the ambient field, a weak external field
normal to the ambient field that oscillates with the precession frequency
will generate a precession of the nuclear polarization. The frequency v of
precession is v = Beµ/π. For the earth's field this precession frequency
for water will be about 2000 hertz; for other nuclei it will be appreciably
less. Moreover, the nucleus of an atom is so weakly coupled to the orbital
electrons - and then the material environment - that relaxation times can
be of the order of 30 seconds and more. So we have a resonance condition
at ELF frequencies with a high Q - which is what we have been looking for.
Can such resonances have significant biological effects?
No! It seems most unlikely that there can be any biological effect of
such resonances. The proportion of the nuclei that will be aligned will be
about equal to Bµ/kT ≈ 10⁻¹⁰ or no more than 1000 per cell! And the
energy of those precessing nuclei will be less than 10⁻⁷ kT. Moreover, as
reflected in the large Q, that energy is coupled to the environment of the
nucleus very, very, weakly. It is this weak coupling of the nucleus to the
atomic structure - and hence to the chemical and biological environment
- that makes nuclear magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) such a safe and
non-invasive medical procedure though the patient is bathed in magnetic
fields of ≈ 4T, about 100,000 times the earth's field.
"There are mechanical processes that lead to current phase lags in biological material
that are of an inductive nature. In some circumstances a kind of inertial mass of the ions
that carry currents leads to inductive phase lags, and the viscous-like resistance to ion
motion also generates a phase lag. Neither of these mechanisms leads to the substantial
energy storage requisite for a resonance.
23
4 Chaos, Solitons, and More
The difficulties in attributing biological effects to very low intensity ELF
fields has not passed unnoticed by the true-believers who then ofttimes take
hopeful refuge in arcane areas of physics which are not widely understood -
by them or others. Consequently, one hears that solutions to the insolvable
may be found under such labels as Chaos, Solitons, Bose-Einstein Condensa-
tions, Phase Transitions, and even Room Temperature Super-Conductivity.
We comment on some of these excursions.
4.1 Chaos
The very small ratio of imposed field to the noise fields`is understood by some
who consider, however, that the experimental results - especially concerning
the calcium efflux - are nevertheless valid. Some of these true-believers
are comforted by Chaos and quote²² an unfortunately misleading statement
dramatizing the chaotic sensitivity to initial conditions of weather; "the
consequence of a butterfly fluttering in Beijing is a storm in New York
City" to explain their belief that weak electromagnetic fields can affect cell
behavior.
The physiology of cells, organs, and organisms may well be chaotic.
Chaotic systems are very sensitive - in some sense infinitely sensitive - to
initial conditions. Systems, selected from an ensemble, that differ initially
by an infinitesimal amount will diverge in a manner such that the initial dif-
ferences increase - at first - exponentially with time though after a long time
the differences between the systems remain within certain bounds. Hence,
any minute change in initial conditions must significantly change the final
state. Therefore, for chaotic systems, considering the impossibility of ob-
taining infinitely accurate information on the initial state, it is not possible
to predict the character of the final state within broad limits.
However, even as the future of chaotic systems is not calculable, one
cannot attribute any specific character of the final state to a specific variation
of the initial state. I hope it surprises no one that no storm in New York
can be said to be a consequence of a fluttering butterfly in Beijing.
But, perhaps I protest too much and, in truth the parallel is well stated:
Those who believe that a massacre of butterflies in Beijing will eliminate
storms in New York should prudently avoid weak electromagnetic fields.
"C.F. Blackman et al., Bioelectromagnetics, 10, 115 (1989); earlier papers by this group
are cited here.
24
4.2 Solitons
The erratic character of the results of experiments that purported to demon-
strate biological effects of low level ELF fields suggested to those who be-
lieved in the reality of such effects that the known non-linear characteristics
of membranes might play some unusual role. Effects that seemed to show
up at low intensities (and at specific frequencies - and at particular levels of
ambient static magnetic fields), vanished at higher intensities (and at differ-
ent frequencies and different magnetic fields). It was attractive to consider
that non-linearities of membrane functions might lead to such anomalies.
Dynamic systems such that deviations from equilibrium are proportional
to the magnitude of a perturbation (a linear response), will oscillate in a har-
monic fashion under broad conditions and sustain harmonic wave motions.
In a corresponding fashion, certain classes of non-linear systems where the
deviations from equilibrium might fall off with an increasing perturbation,
admit a special single wave-like pulse form, the soliton²³. While solitons
have interesting properties including a kind of longevity resistant to atten-
uation by the medium through which it passes, the generation of solitons
is not immune to the equipartition theorem and weak ELF fields will not
produce solitons more effectively than much stronger thermal noise fields.
At any rate, non-linear effects - and solitons - are generally important
in systems where the perturbation is very strong; e.g. large water waves,
very large amplitude vibrations in crystals, and the strong interactions of
elementary particles.
4.3 Bose-Einstein Condensations
We have pointed out that the local noise at cell membrane sites where biolog-
ical activity is presumed to take place, is very large. However, if the activity
is a collective consequence of effects over larger domains, such as the whole
cell membrane⁷, the electric field fluctuations are much reduced by a kind
of averaging process. If that activity can be understood as a consequence of
collective actions of even larger sectors (very much larger), the thermal noise
will be reduced even farther admitting, perhaps, the possibility of effects of
weak ELF fields.
Such collective activity is known to follow under certain conditions as a
consequence of the quantum mechanical description of systems of identical
23 The simplest membrane non-linearity, which differentiates between the flow of ions
into or out of the cell, would not seem to lead to soliton creation.
25
bosons, fundamental systems each with integral spin in units of h. (Such
systems are said to follow Bose-Einstein statistics.) In particular, the prop-
erties of liquid helium follow from zero spin and Bose-statistics of the helium
atom and the BCS (Bardeen-Cooper-Schriefer description of superconduc-
tivity is a consequence of the Bose-statistics of electron pairs bound - or
associated - by phonon interactions. In all cases, the effects occur when
the system is condensed and thermodynamically cold - the quantum energy
gaps are large compared to kT. But kT is large at 37° and the fields
in the tissue are very, very small. Hence, no plausible application of these
concepts has been made to warm biological systems and the prospects that
such mechanisms can act collectively over the very large regions necessary,
if the thermal noise is to be adequately suppressed, seems most improbable.
5 The Experimental Record
5.1 Problems with ELF Research
Although research into the biological effects of very low intensity ELF elec-
tromagnetic fields is connected to researches into the manifest biological
effects of higher intensity and higher frequency fields, there are sufficiently
substantial differences between these two classes of inquiries to mandate
separate consideration.
As for parapsychology, there is no accepted theoretical framework for the
biological effects of very low intensity ELF fields and there are no positive
experimental results that are accepted by a consensus of those who study
the subject²⁴. Hence, at the least, those experiments that purport to estab-
lish biological effects are difficult and have not been verified to everyone's
satisfaction. And the lack of a theoretical framework means that it is most
difficult to disprove the hypothesis that weak ELF fields have biological con-
sequences. Indeed, that hypothesis is probably intrinsically non-falsifiable -
just as the precepts of parapsychology cannot be disproved. Even as no pos-
itive experimental result exists that has not been doubted by many, without
a theoretical framework, no experiment can be envisioned that could have
a result that would disprove the possibility of biological effects.
24 The lack of such a consensus concerning any piece of experimental evidence for bi-
ological effects of weak ELF fields (as for evidence supporting parapsychology) is a fact
- easily documented - not to be confused with opinions held variously to the effect that
that the evidence and logic is obvious and there should be a consensus.
26
All of this has important consequences on the character of research in
the field. Competent scientists who do not believe in biological effects do not
work in the field since they do not expect positive results from any inquiry
they might mount and find no value in negative results. Hence, for the most
part, only those who believe in the possibility of positive results attempt
relevant measurements.
Also, a Gresham's law operates on those who do choose to conduct ex-
periments on the biological effects of weak ELF fields. With no theoretical
framework, any positive result is considered interesting. And since the ex-
periments tend to be complex and systematically "dirty", only those who
control their systematic effects with great care and skill will fail to find false
positives that can be interpreted as evidence of real effects. The more care-
less the experimenters the more exciting the results. However, attempts to
refute careless work is uneconomical; an erroneous "effect" reported in a
casual study that took a few weeks to carry out, can require years of effort
to negate. And since the experiments are complex and no theoretical frame-
work exists, the results are nearly unfalsifiable in effect, hence the carefully
conducted, major, efforts never completely overwrite the casually conducted
experiments that result in weak positives. Those who cannot repeat the re-
sults can be considered to have failed to reproduce some essential - and little
understood - step correctly.
Moreover, positive results - albeit shoddy - are rewarded. They are
publishable and eligible for new or renewed funding support. Conversely, it
is notoriously difficult to publish negative results - albeit from work metic-
ulously conducted - that cannot disprove a hypothesis and by-and-large the
funding agencies are not interested in supporting work that is so unproduc-
tive.
In summary, a general and uncritical infusion of research moneys will
only increase the already large set of marginally positive, badly considered,
results. Just as increased support of ESP research (or astrology) will lead
to more and more marginal claims.
5.2 Windows - and Calcium Efflux
Though we consider that we have shown that it is very, very, difficult to un-
derstand how low intensity ELF fields can affect biological processes, can we
prove that such effects are absolutely forbidden by accepted physical princi-
ples? I would distrust any scientist who answered "yes" to such a question
unequivocally. And there is an old vitalistic tradition to the effect that there
27
may be special biological laws that do not fall within our description of the
physical universe. Such eminent physicists as Schroedinger, Elsasser, and
Wigner have found that question - at least - of interest. Hence, we must
look at the experimental record but with more reserve, and with more cau-
tion, that we need give to more conventional results. If an observer reports
that he has seen an apple fall down from a tree to lie on the ground, we
are not likely to question him too closely considering the conditions of his
observation. But if he tells us that the apple "fell" upwards to finally dis-
appear in the clouds overhead, we must be excused it we review that report
more critically. Therefore we consider that we have reason to judge those
experiments that conclude that weak ELF fields show biological effects at
the cell level - and seem to us to violate thermodynamic imperatives - with
a critical skepticism.
Among the many experiments that reported such effects, experiments on
the "Modulation of ion flows" holds first place on the OTA list of four "re-
sponses demonstrated in laboratory studies using animal cells". Moreover,
the authors of that report clearly indicate that they consider that the results
from this set of studies comprise the most convincing evidence for biological
activity at the cell level of low level ELF. The evidence from the other three
'responses' is seen to be inferior. Two paragraphs from the OTA cheerleader
squad serves to describe the experiments and indict players, cheerleaders,
and all. The emphases are mine.
"Unusual behavior of calcium efflux from cell membranes in brain
tissue in vitro was the first clear, reproducible effect of ELF fields observed
in biological tissue. Bawin and Adey25 took the two halves of the brain
of freshly killed chicks [and] exposed one half to an ELF field keeping
the other half unexposed They then compared the calcium efflux from
the two halves and found the efflux was decreased in the exposed, compared
to the unexposed half. This [effect] was noted to have frequency and
amplitude 'windows' around 6 and 16 hertz and at [5 V/m] in air."
"In independent experiments, Blackman and coworkers¹⁹ also ob-
served a change in calcium efflux, although it was an increase rather than a
decrease, with a complex pattern of several 'windows'. The frequency ranges
they examined were 1-30 hertz and 45-105 hertz, and the intensity range, 1
to 35 V/m."
Fields in the air from 1 to 100 V/m correspond to fields in the tissue of
from 10⁻⁶ to 10⁻⁸ V/m and corresponding membrane fields of from 1.5.10⁻³
25 S.M Bawin and W.R. Adey, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. 73, 1999 (1976)
28
to 1.5 10⁻⁵ V/m. If the whole cell membrane acts collectively, the effective
noise field will still be about 130 V/m, at least 10,000 times the membrane
fields induced by the experimentally induced electric fields. If we consider,
implicitly, broader models, we can compare the fields induced in the tissue
at large with the noise fields generated in those tissues. Here we note that
if external fields of the order of 10 V/m are to effect physiological processes,
the fields must act collectively over a pound of flesh as the mean thermal
noise generated in that amount of tissue will be about equal to the field in
the tissue induced by a field of 10 V/m in the air about the tissue.
These equipartition arguments against the possibility of any biological
effectiveness of such weak fields are a formidable barrier to any belief in the
experimental claims. Chick brain cell, chick brain, and the chick itself all
have masses too small to entertain even collective actions over the whole
from weak ELF fields that would not be masked by the noise generated in
the tissues themselves.
The OTA report describes the results: "Instead of showing an effect that
increased or decreased with increasing or decreasing frequency or intensity,
the effect appeared at certain values of frequency and intensity but not
at others." And, "Further experiments by Blackman et al., showed that the
position of frequency and amplitude windows was influenced by the strength
and relative orientation of any static magnetic field superimposed on the AC
field."
In short, in sets of measurements, Blackman sometimes found increases
in efflux while Adey sometimes found decreases. And, aside from the dif-
ference in the sign of the effect, the aberrations found by the two groups
occurred at different frequencies and power levels²⁶.
It is, perhaps, the intensity windows that are reported that makes. it
most difficult to accept the calcium efflux results. It is an almost firm rule
of the behavior of systems that, above an action threshold, the response to
a perturbing signal increases at least linearly with the incremental signal.
This linear increase will generally be terminated only when the signal is so
large that it can no longer be considered a perturbation. Since it is very
difficult to consider that the small signals in question are sufficiently large
to have any effect at all, the view that they can be so large as to dampen out
a response is even more troubling²⁷. Moreover, the windows seem almost
"There were also at least three attempts, - at major laboratories - to replicate the
Adey or Blackman results that found no ELF dependent calcium efflux at all. Private
communication; John Bergeron, Eleanor Adair, Kenneth Foster
"Intensity windows are not impossible; C.H. Durney, C.K. Rushforth, and A.A. Ander-
29
maliciously defined (by man or by Nature) to thwart simple verification of
the effects. If such windows did not exist, the verification of the effects of
small fields would be simple as the experiment could be conducted with
much larger fields to elicit a much larger and more easily detected response.
Considering the difficulties with these data, a Jacques Derrida decon-
struction of the OTA phrase "clear and reproducible" is in order. The
clarity is reserved for the faithful, and it is not the effect but the claim of
an effect that is reproducible - since the effect itself, as observed by different
groups, differs in sign, and in the frequency and amplitude of the inciting
ELF field.
5.3 Pathological Science
In the euphorically non-critical OTA review previously cited, the authors
state: "Among the responses demonstrated in laboratory studies using ani-
mal cells and tissues are:
modulation of ion flows;
interference with DNA synthesis and RNA transcription;
interaction with the response of normal cells to various agents and bio-
chemicals such as hormones, neurotransmitters, and growth factors;
interaction with the biokinetics of cancer cells."
I restate the OTA comment on these demonstrated effects, "[These] find-
ings at the cellular level display considerable complexity including resonant
responses (or, 'windows') in frequency and field strength, complex time de-
pendencies, and dependence on the earth's magnetic field."
Almost 40 years ago, Irving Langmuir gave a fascinating talk at the
General Electric Knolls Atomic Power Laboratory on the subject of "patho-
logical science". The talk was recorded and an edited version was printed in
Physics Today recently²⁸. Among the subjects Langmuir discussed were the
N-rays of Blondlot, the Mitogenetic rays of Gurwitsch, the Allison effect,
Joseph Rhine and ESP, and flying saucers. He would have loved cold fusion.
From his analysis of these disasters, he distilled a set of rules to be used
to identify pathological science.
son; Bioelectromagnetics 9, 315 (1988), have constructed an ingenious system of cyclotron
- and betatron - ion dynamics that would seem to display both intensity and frequency
windows but they emphasise that their model cannot describe biological effects.
"Physics Today, 42-10, (1989) p. 36.
30
Symptoms of Pathological Science
(1) The maximum effect that is observed is produced by a causative effect of
barely detectable intensity, and the magnitude of the effect is substantially
independent of the intensity of the cause.
(2) There are claims of great accuracy.
(3) Fantastic theories contrary to experience are suggested.
(4) Criticisms are met by ad hoc excuses thought up on the spur of the mo-
ment.
(5) The ratio of supporters to critics rises up to somewhere near 50% and
then falls gradually to oblivion.
I grade the biological effects of weak ELF fields A+ on (1), only B on
(2) which is directed more to physics than biology, but A on (3) and A⁻ for
(4), and I would guess that the ratio of supporters (5) is near 50% now -
and I eagerly await the oblivion.
Acknowledgements
This is an expository paper and I claim nothing original except for errors
and infelicities, and for some of the editorializing. In the course of prepara-
tion of the paper, I found essential encouragement and information in the
course of many, many discussions with Eleanor R. Adair. I owe a great
deal to the papers of Herman Schwan and Ken Foster and to their help and
criticism. And I want to thank William Pickard, Robert Pound, Charles
Bean, Jack Sandweiss, and Richard Setlow for the benefit of conversations
and correspondence as well as too many others to name.
31