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Originally Processed With FOIA(s): FOIA Number: 1998-0004-F[1]; 1999-0098-F; 1999-0163-F S FOIA MARKER This is not a textual record. This is used as an administrative marker by the George Bush Presidential Library Staff. Record Group/Collection: George H.W. Bush Presidential Records Collection/Office of Origin: Chief of Staff, White House Office of Series: Sununu, John, Files Subseries: Issues Files OA/ID Number: 29168 Folder ID Number: 29168-003 Folder Title: Polling (1990) [3] Stack: Row: Section: Shelf: Position: G 15 25 3 6 THE WHITE HOUSE THE CHIEF of STAFF has seen WASHINGTON April 25, 1990 MEMORANDUM FOR THE CHIEF OF STAFF FROM: ED ROGERS for SUBJECT: LATEST COMPARATIVE POLL For your information, attached please find the most recent Comparative presidential Job Approval poll. Comparative Presidential Job Approval Through Second Year in Office Percent Approval 80 - - Bush 71 70 - - 68 60 - - 51 Carter 50 - 43 40 - Reagan 35 30 I I Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Month Source: Gallup Organization RNC Survey Research THE CHIEF of STAFF has seen NEW SPACE CRAFT TECHNOLOGY Are you aware or not aware of a program to build a new re-usable space plane that unlike the shuttle, would take off and land from a regular airport? The federal government has started the development of new technologies that may lead to the con- struction of a new MANNED SPACE CRAFT called the National Aerospace Plane that would fly into space and could use commercial airports to take off and land. Do you view the idea of such a program very favorably, somewhat favorably, somewhat unfavorably, or very unfavorably? A third of the public is aware of the new space craft 80 proposal. Awareness tends to be higher among 66 those groups that traditionally support the space 60 program (younger, male and the more educated). 40 33 20 0 Aware Not aware Seventy percent supports the space plane. 50 42 40 30 27 20 17 11 10 3 strongly 0 fovor Somewhat Somewhat oppose strongly oppose Don't know * 16% has 'seriously considered becoming an astronaut'; 40% would 'pay for a trip into space'; 2.5% of the population would be willing to pay $50,000 or more for a trip into space! -8- APPROVAL OF THE CIVILIAN SPACE PROGRAM Agree or disagree with the following / approve of America's civilian space program so far. America's civilian space program should be expanded. America's civilian space program should be continued as is. Expenditures for America's civilian space program should be cut back. Support for Space Program Time Trends 90 Approve so for Expand 80 Continue as is 70 Cut back 60 50 40 30 Jan '86 Aug '86 July '88 March '89 Feb '90 Approve of program so far Continue program as is Expand program, Cut back program * Public approval of the civilian space program is at an all time high (79%) 1. Sub-groups more likely to approve of the space program include younger voters, men, high income and more educated groups. * Compared to a year ago, voters are more likely to agree that the space program should be expanded. * 'Technological' and 'medical' advances are mentioned most often as the important benefits of the space program. The 'high cost' of the program is viewed as the most important disadvantage of the civilian space program. 1 Questions regarding the space program are from a separate national survey or 1200 registered voters conducted in February. The margin of error on this survey is +/- 2.8%. The survey was commissioned by Rockwell International. -7- PRESIDENT BUSH'S PROPOSAL Are you aware or not aware of recent proposals by President Bush for new space missions? Last July, the President proposed a program to use space satellites to monitor the Earth's environ- ment and begin new manned missions to the Moon, followed by manned exploration of Mars. Do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose this proposed program? 80 Thirty-three percent of the public is aware of Presi- 66 60 dent Bush's proposed space program. Awareness of the proposal correlates with media and news 40 33 attentiveness as well as specific interest in the space program. 20 0 Aware Not owere Once familiarized with the main points of President 50 Bush's proposal, 70% supports it. One of the primary 40 39 reasons for favoring the Bush program is the earth 31 30 observation function of the program. Increased con- 2 20 cern with environment finds an expression in support 13 13 for the space program. The main reason for 10 opposing the program is its cost. 0 Very favor Somewhot Somewhot unfavor very unfavor Don't know -9- EXPENDITURES FOR THE CIVILIAN SPACE PROGRAM About what percentage of the federal government's budget do you think is spent for civilian space programs like satellites and space missions? Approximately 1% of the annual federal budget is currently spent on the civilian space program.. It has been estimated that the starting of new initiatives in space will require increasing NASA's bud- get to about 2% of the total federal budget. Do you agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree that this is a reasonable amount to spend? 5%--21% Awareness of the space program's share of the fed- eral budget is low. A majority of the public feels IX-18% NASA's share is substantially higher that it actually is 10%-13% (Correct answer is 1%). 15%-8% Don't Know-19% 20%-13% 50% or more--8% Awareness of current budget When told what the actual share of the space pro- Strongly agree-31% gram's budget is, support for an increased budget is substantial. Sixty-seven percent of the public would Somewhat agree--36% support incleasing NASA's budget share to about Don't know-5% 2%. Strongly disagree- 15% Somewhat disagree--13% Funding increase -10- Finished DEM. PULLETS: ABORTION HEALTH CARE S/L. Summary of Findings CAB ANS. B-Y 1) SAVING 2) COTTING 47 President Bush 3335 The President receives the highest marks yet in the RNC national surveys. A 77% to THIS 17% majority approve of his job performance, and a 67% to 13% majority give him warm/favorable rating on the warm/cold scale. Thirty-three percent now say that they strongly approve of the President's job, an Return indication of deepening support for his performance. Only 22 percent (down from summure 31 percent last October) believe he has been "too cautious" in handling his respon- sibilities; 69 percent believe he has been "about right" rather than too bold or too cautious. Current Issue Agenda Concern with the drug problem is unabated. It remains the highest rated priority for the federal government with close to 80 percent of the public now rating it at the top of the issue importance scale. The drug problem also topped two other lists in the survey; the most important of the President's six education goals, ie., "schools will be PHOTOCOPY GB HANDWRITING free of drugs and violence" and as the most closely followed issue in the news. Contrary to the normal pattern, the voters have more confidence in the incumbent party to handle the nation's most serious problem. By 42% to 26%, they prefer the Republican Party over the Democrats on combatting drugs. Moreover, the Republican margin has slightly increased, rather than eroded, over the past 15 months. Education and the environment remain just behind the drug problem in the voters' priorities for the federal government. Both problems are rated as important as last year. There are no significant differences between Republicans and Democrats or core Bush and anti-Bush voters in their ratings of drugs, education, and the environ- ment as the nation's top three issues. The public's preference for the Democratic Party to handle the education issue continues to shrink. Currently, a 40% to 37% plurality prefer the Democrats to improve education. On the environment, the Democrats continue to hold a large lead, 49% to 26%, with their current margin being slightly larger than last year. After drugs, education, and the environment there are four issues on the public agenda: economic competitiveness, the budget deficit, health insurance, and nuclear arms control. The Republican Party is the preferred party to handle all but health insurance. Completing the list of issues tested, the voters rank in order of importance: the economy, housing for the homeless, national defense, abortion, and taxes. The Republican Party is the party of preference on national defense, the economy, and taxes The Democratic Party is the party of preference on the homeless. The Democrats are slightly preferred on the abortion issue, 36% to 33%. Republicans and core Bush voters rank economic competitiveness and the budget deficit as high on their agenda as they rank the environment and just behind their ranking of education. Democrats and anti-Bush voters place health insurance as high as the environment on their agenda, and they rank housing for the homeless close behind health insurance. Health insurance and the homeless generate the largest partisan differences in these priority rankings with Democrats rating them very high and Republicans rating them relatively low. The Deficit and Taxes General support for a tax increase is the same as last April: 41 percent would support a tax increase "as one part of an overall plan to reduce the federal budget deficit." Fifty-five percent are opposed. Surprisingly, there is little difference between Republi- cans and Democrats or core Bush and anti-Bush voters. All are opposed to a tax increase by about the same moderate margins. A 52% to 43% majority think it will be necessary, eventually, to increase taxes to reduce the deficit, but a 55% to 38% majority do not think it will be necessary to have such a tax increase in the next year. The majority acknowledging the in- evitability of a tax increase has not grown in the past year. Instead, it is down slightly from the previous results. Increasing the gasoline tax, specifically, to reduce the deficit is met with about the same result as an undefined tax increase although the wording is admittedly biased toward a favorable response. By 53% to 45%, the voters disagree with the statement that "an increase in the gasoline tax to reduce the deficit is a good idea because it would encourage Americans to conserve gasoline and our gasoline prices would still be lower than in most other countries." Again, the Republican and Democratic coalitions are similarly divided in their responses to this issue. The President's Education Goals Forty-six percent of the public, over one-half of the core Bush voters and four-in-ten anti-Bush voters, say they have read or heard about the national education goals announced by the President in January. Of the six goals, the public believes the most important one is making the schools drug-free. They judge adult literacy and training as the next most important. The other four goals are ranked as follows: ninety percent graduation rate, demonstrated competency in core subjects, pre-school preparation, and reaching first place in math and science. Foreign Policy Issues The President's current policy toward China is supported by a 58% to 33% majority. In the context of a reminder of the events last June, the voters were asked to choose between two policies: "deal with the current government leaders but apply political pressure on them to introduce democratic reforms" or "don't deal with the current government leaders and support those who want to establish a democracy in China." Fifty-eight percent sided with the first policy. On the issue of assisting the Soviet Union, over 70 percent majorities favor sending them "economic advisors" and granting the Soviets the same trading rights as our traditional trading partners, but over seventy percent oppose "direct economic aid" to the Soviet Union. President Bush: Job Performance Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Bush is handling his job as President? Would that be strongly (approve/disapprove) or just somewhat (approve/disapprove)? Collapsed Responses March October April 1990 1989 1989 Approve 77% 75% 70% Disapprove 18 18 19 Full Responses Strongly approve 33% 29% 27% Just somewhat approve 44 45 43 Just somewhat disapprove 11 10 11 Strongly disapprove 6 8 8 Don't know/NA 6 7 11 Subgroups Approve Disapprove Republicans 94% 4 Ticket-Splitters 79% 17 Democrats 58% 35 Men 78% 19 Women 76% 17 Blacks 62% 29 Right Direction 89% 8 Wrong Track 68% 25 Comment The President continues to win increasing 'strong approval' marks from the public, a sign of deepening satisfaction with his performance. American women are especially approving of the President's performance: there is no gender gap in approval despite the fact that women are significantly more Democratic in outlook than men. Report on American Public Opinion 1 Reasons for Bush Job Approval and Disapproval¹ APPROVAL DISAPPROVAL Selected Mentions Selected Mentions He's doing a good job 31% Economic problems/policies 3% Foreign affairs 9 Not decisive/not strong leader 3 Stand on drugs 8 Not doing a good job 2 Agree with his stands in general 8 Doesn't care about people 2 Decisive/strong leader 7 Not doing enough about drugs 2 Likes how he handled Panama 5 Not taking care of U.S. needs 2 Good man - I like him 5 Not keeping his promises 1 Hasn't done anything wrong 4 Doesn't like him 1 He's honest and sincere 4 Foreign Policy 1 Likes his (family/religious) values 3 Stand on education 1 Economy 3 He's a Republican 1 He is intelligent/educated/smar 2 Foreign aid 1 Education stands 2 Stands on environment * Abortion stand 2 Stand on abortion * Relations with Soviets 1 He's Republican 1 Military/defense stands 1 Stand on taxes 1 Environment * Others 4 Others 1 Don't know/NA 12 Don't know/NA 3 Comment Americans tend toward general reasons for approving of the President's job: four-in-ten name either a general policy areas or else personality reasons for their approval. In October, the most often mentioned specific issue area was cited by 16% (for stand on drugs), while in this study half that number mention the specific issue of drugs as a reason for approving of Bush. Americans name 'decisive/strong leadership' as a reason for approval at twice the rate 'indecisive/weak leadership' is named as a reason for disapproval. This is likely an improvement since October: at that time, Bush 'weakness' was mentioned more often as a reason for disapproval than 'stands up for what he believes in' was mentioned as a cause for approval. 1 Percentage based on total sample (N=1200) Report on American Public Opinion 2 President Bush: General Feelings 51-100 50 0-49 Don't Know Warm Neutral Cold Ref./NA Avg. 2 Trend March, 1990 67% 19 13 1 67° October, 1989 62% 20 17 1 64° April 63% 16 19 2 64° Jan., 1989 54% 17 26 3 58° Nov. 6-7, 1988 48% 16 34 3 53° Sept. 27-28 47% 16 34 3 54° Aug. 22-24 56% 15 30 2 57° Aug. 3-6 42% 17 38 3 50° July 44% 17 37 2 50° May 38% 22 38 2 48° March 42% 16 36 6 49° Intense Favorability 90-100° March, 1990 13 October, 1989 20 April 19 January, 1989 13 2 Average on a 0-to-100 scale where 0=very cold, 50=not warm or cold, and 100=very warm Report on American Public Opinion 3 Bush Style of Leadership In general, do you think George Bush has been too bold, too cautious, or about right in handling his responsibilities as President? March October 1990 1989 Too bold 6% 2% Too cautious 22 31 About right 69 63 Don't Know/NA 4 5 Subgroups Too Too About Bold Cautious Right Republican 3% 13 82 Ticket-Splitters 5% 22 69 Democrats 10% 31 54 Bush Core 2% 13 84 Swing 6% 20 72 Anti-Bush 11% 41 40 Comment This Democratic attack theme has gained no acceptance from the American public. Report on American Public Opinion 4 Volunteered Perceptions of President Bush's Accomplishments and Disappointments What has George Bush done so far that has impressed you the most? What has George Bush done so far that has disappointed you the most? Impressive Disappointing (Selected Mentions) (Selected Mentions) Handling of Panama/Noriega 16% Not doing enough about poverty 5% Action against drugs 14 His stand on abortion 4 General foreign policy 11 Stand on taxes 4 Policy toward Eastern Europe 9 Not doing enough about drugs 4 Doing good job 7 Not doing enough about budget 3 Decisive/strong leader 4 How he handled Panama 3 Communicates well 4 Not decisive/strong leader 3 Stand on abortion 3 Education 3 Stand on education 2 Hasn't done enough for hostages 2 Stands on issues generally 2 Foreign policy in general 2 Economic situation 2 Foreign aid 2 His honesty/sincerity 2 Environmental issues 2 Stand on taxes 2 China policies 2 Values/religious values 2 Help for elderly 2 Hasn't done anything wrong 1 Choice of Dan Quayle 2 I like him 1 Hasn't help unemployment 1 Stand on homelessness 1 Not doing enough for economy 1 He cares about people 1 Handling of South Africa 1 Working with the budget 1 Stand on Social Security * Intelligent * Others 5 Others 12 Nothing has impressed 14 Nothing has disappointed 26 Don't Know/NA 22 Don't know/NA 24 Comment In October of last year, the President's messages and actions on drugs was first in peoples minds and was mentioned by 32% of the public in response to this question. Now Americans' impressions are more balanced between drug actions, Panama, and foreign policy in general. Report on American Public Opinion 5 Vice-President Quayle: General Feelings 51-100 50 0-49 Don't Know Warm Neutral Cold Ref./NA Avg. 3 Trend March, 1990 27% 28 40 4 44° October, 1989 28% 24 40 9 44° April 35% 20 38 8 46° Jan., 1989 26% 24 43 7 41° Nov. 6-7, 1988 22% 21 52 5 37° Sept. 27-28 25% 19 46 9 40° Aug. 22-24, 1988 38% 18 33 11 50° Subgroups (March, 1990) Warm Neutral Cold Avg. Republicans 47% 27 22 57° Ticket-splitters 25% 30 40 44° Democrats 14% 22 61 32° Men 29% 25 43 43° Women 26% 31 37 45° 18-29 19% 32 43 40° 30-39 28% 26 42 44° 40-64 32% 28 37 46° 65+ 29% 26 40 45° 3 Average on a 0-to-100 scale where 0=very cold, 50=not very warm or cold, and 100=very warm. Report on American Public Opinion 6 Vice-President Quayle: Job Performance Do you approve or disapprove of the way Dan Quayle is handling his job as Vice-President? Would that be strongly (approve/disapprove) or just somewhat (approve/disapprove)? March Oct April 1990 1989 1989 Collapsed Responses Approve 49% 38% 50% Disapprove 23 22 22 Don't know/NA 28 41 22 Do you think Dan Quayle would or would not be able to handle the job of President if something happened to President Bush? Would be able 34% 34% 41% Would not be able 52 52 49 Don't know/NA 14 14 10 Able to Job Performance Handle Presidency Dis- Don't Would Subgroups Approve approve Know Would not Republicans 63% 14 23 46% 40 Ticket-Splitters 50% 23 27 33% 55 Democrats 37% 33 30 26% 60 Men 52% 25 24 37% 51 Women 46% 22 32 31% 53 East North Central 53% 24 23 37% 51 Mid Atlantic 43% 25 32 29% 55 Southern Whites 56% 18 26 38% 48 Comment Nearly one in two 'Approvers' of the Vice-President's job handling fail to translate this attitude into confidence in his ability to handle the job of president. These Americans may be thought of as the first step for the Vice-President in winning the confidence of a majority of the public to handle the job of president. If only half of this group were to see that what they approve of in the job Quayle is doing demonstrates his capability to act as president, a clear plurality, and very close to an overall majority of the public would hold confidence in the Vice- President to handle the job. Report on American Public Opinion 7 Congress: Job Performance Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job? Would that be strongly (approve/disapprove) or just somewhat (approve/disapprove)? Collapsed March Oct. April Nov. Early Oct. Responses 1990 1989 1989 1984 1983 1983 1982 1979 Approve 48% 51% 50% 46% 34% 51% 37% 18% Disapprove 40 34 39 33 32 33 39 67 Don't Know/ NA 12 15 11 21 34 16 42 15 Subgroups Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Republicans 40% 49 Men 45% 46 Ticket- Women 50% 34 splitters 48% 40 Democrats 57% 33 Pro-life 40% 46 In-between & 18-39 years 55% 32 somewhat 40-64 years 43% 46 pro-choice 55% 34 65+ years 38% 51 Strongly pro-choice 46% 42 Comment The increase in disapproval since October of last year comes almost entirely from Republicans. At that time they approved of Congress' job by 50% to 40%. Report on American Public Opinion 8 Generic Congressional Ballot If the elections for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you be voting for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate from your district? Which way do you lean as of today -- toward the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate? March October April 1990 1989 1989 Republican 40% 43% 38% Democrat 41 47 46 Don't Know/NA 18 10 16 Subgroups Rep Dem Rep Dem Republicans 87% 4 Men 43% 39 Ticket- Women 38% 43 splitters 35% 39 Democrats 3% 90 Strongly pro-life 45% 35 18-39 years 43% 40 Strongly 40-64 years 37% 44 pro-choice 35% 47 65+ years 41% 42 Bush Core Support 81% 6 Swing 21% 56 Anti-Bush 1% 88 Comment More Republicans were found in this study than in October, so some improvement in the generic ballot question is to be expected. Ticket-Splitters were found in October to favor Republicans by five percentage points. Report on American Public Opinion 9 Party Confidence Do you have more confidence in the policies and programs of the Republican party or the Democratic Party to solve the problems facing the country? 1990 1989 Nov. 1988 March Oct. April Jan. 6-7 Sept. May Republican 41% 38% 43% 47% 43% 40% 35% Democratic 29 30 33 33 49 41 39 Both/ Neither 22 22 19 16 11 12 16 Don't Know/ NA 9 10 5 4 8 7 10 GOP Margin 12 8 10 14 -6 1 -4 Subgroups Rep Dem Both/Neither/ Party Party NA Republicans 86% 3 11 Ticket-Splitters 35% 22 44 Democrats 5% 68 27 Men 44% 25 31 Women 38% 32 70 18-29 years 43% 33 24 30-39 years 43% 23 34 40+ 39% 29 32 Blacks 13% 55 30 Right Direction 51% 34 26 Wrong Track 35% 33 33 Generic Vote for Congress Republican 82% 4 15 Democratic 8% 60 31 Report on American Public Opinion 10 Trend in Which Party the Public Holds Confidence In Since 1988 Percent 50 - - 45 - - 41 40 - 39 Republican 35 35 - - Democratic 30 - - 29 25 May-88 Sep-88 Nov-88 Jan-89 Apr-89 Oct-89 Mar-90 Date Source: US National Survey, March, 1990 RNC Survey Research Party Issue Handling Here are some issues and problems. For each one, please tell me whether you think the Republican Party or the Democratic Party would do a better job of handling it. Current 1989 Republican Democratic GOP GOP Party Party Margin Margin⁴ Maintaining a strong national defense 61% 21 40 39 Reaching nuclear arms control agreements 51% 25 26 27 Promoting growth in the national economy 52% 27 25 n.a. Making our country more competitive with Japan and Europe 51% 27 24 22⁵ Avoiding a recession 48% 28 20 n.a. Combatting the drug problem 42% 26 16 10 Reduce the federal budget deficit 47% 32 15 14 Avoiding a tax increase 47% 33 14 n.a. Doing the right thing on the nation's abortion laws 33% 36 -3 -7 Improving public education 37% 40 -3 -10 Protecting the environment 26% 49 -23 -20 Making sure all Americans have basic health care 21% 59 -38 n.a. Providing housing for the homeless 19% 59 -40 -40 4 Results are from studies conducted in January, April, and October of 1989. Results are averaged for issues asked in more than one study. 5 1989 wording was 'Improving our competitive position in world markets'. Report on American Public Opinion 11 Party Handling Trends for Drugs, Education and Environment Net Republican 1990 1989 1989 1989 Advantage March Oct. April Jan. Reducing the federal budget deficit +15 +12 +19 +11 Combatting the drug problem +16 +13 +12 +6⁶ Improving the quality of public education -3 -8 -6 -15 Protecting the environment -23 -21 -19 n.a. ⁶January wording: 'Solving the drug problem' Report on American Public Opinion 12 Party Identification 1990 1989 Party Identification March October April January Republican 48% 45% 44% 46% Democratic 43 46 47 47 Independent 9 8 8 7 Other/NA 1 1 1 2 Subgroups Party ID Republican Democratic Men 52% 38 18-34 years 55% 35 35+ years 49% 41 Women 44% 48 18-34 years 48% 44 35+ years 42% 50 New Deal Groups Northern Protestant 61% 31 Northern Catholic 52% 39 Northern Union 44% 46 Southern White 55% 36 Blacks 10% 80 Jews 19% 77 Comment For the first time during the Bush Presidency, a plurality of Americans identify with the Republican party over the Democratic party. This could signal a break in the GOP direction after being mired in parity with the Democrats over the past two years. This encouraging result comes in spite of the fact that the sample demographics in all important ways match previous samples. Report on American Public Opinion 13 National Direction Do you feel things in this country are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 March Oct. April Jan. Aug. March Right Direction 39% 40% 46% 53% 48% 41% 39% 54% Wrong Track 54 51 41 37 44 49 53 34 Don't Know/ NA 7 9 13 10 8 10 8 12 Difference -15 -11 5 16 4 -8 -14 20 Subgroups Right Wrong Don't Know/ Direction Track NA Republicans 47% 48 6 Ticket-Splitters 41% 54 6 Democrats 31% 63 6 Men 42% 54 5 Women 38% 55 7 18-39 years 42% 54 4 40-64 years 40% 54 6 65+ 32% 57 11 Blacks 21% 75 4 Comment Compared to January of 1989, partisanship no longer strongly drives Right Direction/Wrong Track attitudes. At that time, almost three-quarters of Republicans said the country was going in the right direction while Democrats held attitudes similar to what they hold today. This trend bears watching for improvement once the GOP federal and state campaigns get in gear. It should improve since in most other ways Republicans appear to be activated and hold positive attitudes towards their party. Previous open-ended follow-up questioning and focus group findings indicate that concern for the problem of drugs is driving 'Wrong Track' attitudes. Report on American Public Opinion 14 Right Direction or Wrong Track? National Direction Since 1986 Percent 55 - 54 54 50 - Wrong Track 45 - 40 - 39 Right Direction 35 - 34 30 Nov '86 Jul '87 Mar '88 Jan '89 Apr Oct Mar '90 Date Source: US National Survey, March, 1990 RNC Survey Research Volunteered National Problems What do you think are the most important problems facing the country at the present time? 1990 1989 1989 April October April January Drugs 49% 57% 31% 19% Homelessness 23 18 16 15 Crime 15 8 8 5 Education 12 16 11 7 Budget deficit and national debt 12 10 20 32 Economy 11 5 16 15 Pollution/Environment 10 7 15 4 Abortion 7 4 5 2 Unemployment 6 9 9 11 Foreign Relations, unspecified 5 5 14 4 Poverty 3 5 3 3 Senior health care/costs/Soc. Security 3 4 2 2 Health care/insurance 3 4 5 5 AIDS 2 4 5 3 Taxes 2 4 3 3 Hunger 1 2 - - Racism 1 1 2 1 Don't know/NA 13 2 5 13 Comment Four specific domestic issues dominate the public's agenda while the broad issue of prosperity has rebounded some in importance since October. Homelessness stands out among the most mentioned issues as lacking the same broad agreement over its importance which other issues enjoy. It is ranked second by partisans of both parties, but the Democrats are more than twice as likely to mention this problem than Republicans (34% to 15%). Of all other issues, only unemployment draws such strong disagreement over its importance between partisans. Women are also significantly more concerned about homelessness than are men. Notable in its absence is any mention of the problem of war and peace. Report on American Public Opinion 15 Trends in Rating of Government Goals For each goal: 1990 1989 1989 Average Rating⁷ and March October April Percent Rating Issue '9' or '10' Combatting the drug problem 9.1 9.0 8.9 78% 75% 74% Improving the quality of 8.9 8.9 8.6 public education 68% 69% 65% Protecting the environment 8.7 8.6 8.6 68% 64% 62% Making our country more economically 8.4 competitive with Japan and Europe 58% Reducing the federal 8.4 8.1 8.3 budget deficit 58% 48% 58% Making sure all Americans have basic 8.4 health insurance coverage 59% Avoiding a recession 8.3 54% Reaching nuclear arms 8.3 control agreements 54% Promoting growth in 8.1 the national economy 46% Providing housing for the homeless 8.0 8.0 51% 49% Maintaining a strong national defense 7.7 44% Doing the right thing on the 7.5 6.7 nation's abortion laws 47% 37% Avoiding a tax increase 7.4 41% Making child care services 7.3 more available and affordable 37% 7 Average on a 0-to-10 scale where 0=not at all important and 10=extremely important. Report on American Public Opinion 16 How Important are the Following Goals (Zero to Ten Scale) Combat Drug Problem 9.1 Improve Public Educ. 8.9 Environment 8.7 Make US Competitive 8.4 Reducing Fed Budget 8.4 Health Insurance 8.4 Avoiding Recession 8.3 Arms Agreement 8.3 Promoting Growth 8.1 Homelessness 8 Strong Nat'l Defense 7.7 Abortion Laws 7.5 Avoid Tax Increase 7.4 I 0 2 4 6 8 Mean March, 1990 study of 1200 U.S. Adults RNC Survey Research, 4-90 How Important are the Following Things to You and Your Family? Staying Phys. Fit 62 Avoiding Crime 53 Obtaining Education 45 Raising Children 35 Treatment of Illness 34 Earning More Income 28 Saving for College 27 Saving for Retiring 26 More Time for Family 25 Cutting Living Exps. 23 Church Activities 21 Current Events 15 Finding a New Job 14 Saving for New Home 14 Learn New Job Skill 12 Following Politics 10 I I I I I 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Percent Extremely Important March, 1990 study of 1200 U.S. Adults RNC Survey Research, 4-90 How Closely Do You Follow the News on Combatting Drugs 68 Crime in Your Area 65 Environment 52 Presidential Camp. 51 Action by Local Govt 46 Action by State Govt 45 The Abortion Issue 43 Action by Fed. Govt. 41 Local School Events 39 Homeless Problem 39 Changes in E. Europe 37 Nat'l Economic Data 32 Campaigns in State 28 I I 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Percent Follow Very Closely March, 1990 study of 1200 U.S. Adults RNC Survey Research, 4-90 Tax Increases and Deficit Reductions Would you support or oppose a tax increase as one part of an overall plan to reduce the federal budget deficit? 1990 1989 March October 8 April Support 41% 53% 41% Oppose 55 41 55 Don't know/NA 5 6 4 Do you think that it will or will not be necessary to have a tax increase in order to reduce the deficit? 1990 1989 March October April January Will 52% 53% 60% 56% Will Not 43 41 35 40 Don't know/NA 5 6 4 4 Do you think that it will or will not be necessary to have a tax increase IN THE NEXT YEAR to reduce the deficit? 1990 1989 March October April January Will 38% 38% 39% 37% Will Not 55 56 55 57 Don't know/NA 7 6 5 6 Comment Republicans and Ticket-Splitters provide the margin of majority opposition to a tax increase as a part of a deficit reduction plan as Democrats are evenly divided on this issue. ⁸October's responses were possibly affected by question positioning. Report on American Public Opinion 17 The Rostenkowski Plan Here is a plan to eliminate the deficit by 1995 that was recently proposed by a congressional leader. After / read the five parts, please tell me if you would support or oppose the total plan? The five parts are: 1. A one year freeze in spending on most government programs, 2. No increase in social security cost of living benefits for one year, 3. A reduction in military spending, 4. An increase in the gasoline tax, 5. And, an increase in the income tax on upper income people Would you support or oppose this TOTAL plan to eliminate the deficit? 1990 March Support 47% Oppose 48 Don't know/NA 5 Subgroups Support Oppose Republicans 49% 46 Ticket-splitters 47% 49 Democrats 49% 46 18-29 55% 44 30-64 44% 51 65+ 44% 53 Family income in 1989 $15,000 and less 39% 53 $15-$25,000 57% 40 $25-$50,000 48% 48 $50,000+ 43% 54 General position on tax increase as part of deficit reduction plan Supports 60% 37 Opposes 39% 56 Report on American Public Opinion 18 Gas Tax Attitudes Do you agree or disagree with this statement concerning an INCREASE in the GASOLINE TAX to reduce the deficit: 'It is a good idea because it would encourage Americans to conserve gasoline and our gasoline prices would still be lower than in most other countries? Agree 45% Disagree 53 Don't know/NA 3 Subgroups Agree Disagree Republicans 46% 51 Ticket-Splitters 41% 56 Democrats 49% 48 18-29 50% 49 30-54 39% 58 55-64 44% 51 65+ 52% 43 Family income in 1989 Less than $30,000 47% 50 $30-$50,000 37% 60 $50,000+ 48% 51 General position on tax increase as part of deficit reduction plan Supports 57% 41 Opposes 35% 62 Comment The $30,000-$50,000 income group, which stands out as so strongly disagreeing with a gas tax increase, makes up a quarter of the public. Report on American Public Opinion 19 The United States as a World Power Who do you think is the world's number one economic power: Japan, Western Europe, or the United States? Japan 55% Western Europe 4 United States 37 Don't know/NA 3 Which of one of these three statements do you most agree with? It is important for the United States to be the number one economic power in the world 32% It is important for the United States to be one of several world economic powers. 63 It is not important for the United States to be a world economic power. 3 Don't know/NA 1 Which of one of these three statements do you most agree with? It is important for the United States to be the number one military power in the world. 38% It is important for the United States to be one of several world military powers. 55 It is not important for the United States to be a world military power. 5 Don't know 1 Comment There is about a 70% overlap in attitudes towards the importance of the U.S.'s economic and military positions. Overall, just over one in five think that it is important for the U.S. to be both the premier economic and military power in the world, one in four say that it is important to be number one in either of the categories (most preferring military power), while one in two Americans agree that is important to be only one of several economic or military powers, or else think that the country's world position is unimportant. Perceptions of the United States' position as an economic power vary significantly only across age groups: the younger the voter, the less likely the U.S. is to be called the number one world economic power. Report on American Public Opinion 20 U.S. Foreign Policy towards China Last June, as you may recall, the Chinese government used force against students and others who were demonstrating on behalf of democratic reforms. Which ONE of the following two choices do you think should be our country's policy toward the current Chinese leaders? Deal with the current government leaders but apply political pressure on them to introduce democratic reforms 58% Don't deal with the current government leaders and support those who want to establish a democracy in China. 33 Don't know/NA 8 Subgroups Keep Ignore contacts current leaders Republicans 63% 30 Ticket-Splitters 61% 32 Democrats 54% 38 Men 63% 31 Women 54% 36 Conservatives 61% 32 Liberals 56% 39 Selected regions Great Lakes 66% 29 South 49% 39 Pacific Coast 60% 31 Comment The results to this question are confirmed by an Americans Talk Security poll conducted in March which uses this identical question. That study found 59% favoring keeping contacts open and 33% favoring no contacts with the Chinese leadership. Report on American Public Opinion 21 U.S. Foreign Policy Towards the Soviet Union Because of the changes occurring in the Soviet Union, some people have suggested that we provide help to them. Here are three possible ways we could assist the Soviet Union. For each one, please tell me if you favor or oppose it. Don't Know/ Favor Oppose Refused Send economic advisors to help them restructure their economy. 78% 22 2 Remove trade restrictions so the Soviets have the same trading rights with us as do our traditional trading partners. 71% 24 5 Provide direct economic aid to the Soviet Union. 19% 78 3 Comment All of these attitudes towards aid to the Soviet Union are broadly held. Report on American Public Opinion 22 Awareness of the President's Goals for Education Have you read or heard about the national education goals announced by President Bush last January? Yes 46% No 51 Don't know/NA 3 Subgroups Heard or Had not read heard Men 46% 51 Women 46% 51 Blacks 35% 62 Children under 18 42% 55 Children but none under 18 55% 41 No children 42% 57 Comment Awareness of the President's education goals seems. high: just as many say they have heard of his goals today, as said they were aware of the Education Summit in early October. Attitudes towards ranking the President's goals do not vary by awareness as measured by this question. Report on American Public Opinion 23 Importance of the President's Education Goals I'm going to read the six goals he announced and for each one please tell if you think it is extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not very important. Use extremely important only when you think that goal should have the highest priority. Of the six goals / just read, which ONE do you think is the most important to achieve by the year 2000? 'Extremely' and 'Very Important' Minus 'Somewhat' Single Most and 'Not Very Important' Important By the year 2000, every school in America will be free of drugs and violence and offer a disciplined environment conducive to learning 92 39% By the year 2000, every adult American will be literate and possess the knowledge and skills necessary to compete in a global economy and exercise the rights and responsibilities of citizenship 70 21 By the year 2000, we will increase the percentage of students graduating from high school to at least ninety percent 76 14 By the year 2000, American students will leave grades four, eight, and twelve having demonstrated competency over challenging subject matter, including English, mathematics, science, history, and geography 66 11 By the year 2000, all children in America will start school ready to learn 49 5 By the year 2000, U.S. students will be the first in the world in science and mathematics achievement 42 5 (comments continued on next page) Report on American Public Opinion 24 Importance of the President's Education Goals Comment The rank order importance of these goals generally does not vary by major demographic group, though the emphasis on individual goals changes in some instances. For example, nearly half of respondents with children under 18 put the goal of a drug and crime free school environment as the President's most important. Blacks and other lower-end status group whites also strongly emphasize a proper learning environment as a national goal. The goal of universal adult literacy and citizenship skills in particular is viewed differently by specific groups. Democrats overall tend to put more weight on this goal than do all voters. At the same time, blacks do not take to this goal at all, and actually rank it just below 90% graduation rates and student competency testing. Report on American Public Opinion 25 Perceptions of Actions Towards Savings and Loan Problem Do you think the actions begun a year ago to meet the problems facing savings and loan institutions have or have not been successful? Successful 22% Not Successful 52 Don't know/NA 25 Subgroups Successful Not Successful Republicans 24% 46 Ticket-splitters 20% 56 Democrats 23% 57 18-29 28% 43 30-64 22% 54 65+ 16% 61 Men 24% 58 Women 21% 47 Report on American Public Opinion 26 03/12/90 19:06 1 002 wall Street tournal Polls NOV. 1989 14. be you fevor or oppose the United States providing economic assistance to Hungary and Poland? Favor 57 .1 (49) Oppose 31 .2 Hot sure 12 -3 Dec. 1989 12. Let me read you several ways in which the United States could aid the Soviet Union's economy. For each one, please tell me whether you favor or oppose this idea. (READ EACH ITEM ON LIST. REPEAT CHOICES. RECORD SELOW.) Not Fevor Oppose Sure #. Remove trade restrictions 60 the Soviets could sell more goods and services in the United States 51 -1 41 -2 8 -3 (29) b. Allow American companies to sell high technology products to the Goviet Union even if they have potential military usage 17 .1 77 +2 6 in (30) C. Allow the Soviet Union to join international lending insti- tutions so they could borrow more money from the West 45 -1 48 -2 7 -3 (31) d. Provide direct economic aid to the Soviets 26 -1 66 -2 8 .3 (32) Jan. 1990 9a. Do you think the United States should or should not provide substantial economic assistance to (READ LIST SLOWLY) to help rebuild its economy? (REPEAT CHOICES FOR EACH ITEM. ROTATE ORDER OF ITEMS ON EVERY OTHER INTERVIEW.) Should should Not Provide Provide Substantial Substantial Not Assistance Assistance Sure Panama 62 1 30 -2 8 -3 (72) The Soviet Union 25 -1 66 -2 9 -3 (73) East Germany 36 .1 55 -2 9 -3 (74) Poland 46 1 44 -2 10 -3 (75) Romania 39 .1 48 -2 13 -3 (76) MARKET OPINION REPORTS a monthly look at national attitudes on political and public policy issues Published by: MARKET OPINION RESEARCH M March, 1990 MARKET OPINION REPORTS Market Opinion Reports summarizes a few key results of the March national voter attitude survey conducted by Market Opinion Research (MOR). MOR's Political and Public Affairs Group conducts national surveys on political and public policy issues each month. For more in- formation on MOR's series of monthly surveys, contact Richard G. Reed, Vice President or Dr. Jan van Lohuizen, Group Vice President in our Political and Public Affairs Group at: M Market Opinion Research 1400 L Street Suite 650 Washington, D.C. 20005 Telephone: 202-289-0420 Fax: 202-289-0519 For information on survey methodology, see last page. Market Opinion Reports is published by Market Opinion Research. Entire contents copy- righted 1990 by Market Opinion Research. Permission is granted to quote this material with- out written permission from the publisher, provided accurate citation of the source is made. TABLE OF CONTENTS Right Direction Vs. Wrong Track 1 Bush/Quayle Job Approval 2 Expectations Of The Economy 3 Rostenkowski Plan 4 Sanctions Against South Africa 5 Importance Of Other Nations To U.S. Economic Interests 6 Approval of Civilian Space Program 7 Awareness and Support Levels For New Space Craft Technology 8 President Bush's Proposal For Space 9 Funding For Civilian Space Program 10 RIGHT DIRECTION VS. WRONG TRACK Do you feel things in this country are going in the right direction or do you feel things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? 90 Right direction 80 Wrong track 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 * Attitudes remain unchanged since late January. Currently, forty-four percent (44%) say "right direction," 43% say "wrong track." * Demographic trends reported previously persist: Republicans, males, younger voters and whites are more optimistic. Democrats, women, older voters and blacks are more pessimistic. * Gender differences continue to be especially pronounced. Only 36% of women say "right direction," 51% say "wrong track." Of men, 52% say "right direction," 34% say "wrong track." -1- BUSH / QUAYLE JOB APPROVAL Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Bush is handling his job as President? Do you approve or disapprove of the way Dan Quayle is handling his job as Vice President? 80 Bush Approve 72 Bush 71 Disapprove 66 Quoyle Approve Quayle 60 Disapprove 45 40 39 30 28 24 21 20 20 0 December '89 February '90 March '90 * The President's job approval remains unchanged at 71% "approve" and 20% "disapprove". * Vice President Quayle's job approval (44% approve, 28% disapprove) is up from December (39% - 30%). Congressional job approval is low (46% approve, 43% disapprove). * Quayle shows a modest pick-up in approval across the board. Quayle's highest ratings come from Republicans and conservatives. His lowest ratings come from Democrats, liberals and the youngest voter groups (18 - 24). Male/female differences are small and largely a function of partisanship. Comment: So much for the 'broccoli' vote. Quayle bashing may be on its way out. Congressional critics of the Veep should perhaps redirect their attention. -2- EXPECTATIONS OF THE ECONOMY Thinking about a year from now, do you expect the national economy will be better, worse, or about the same as it is now? Compared to a year ago, do you think the economy has gotten better, gotten worse or stayed about the same? 70 A Year From Now Better 60 Worse 50 40 30 20 10 0 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 * While still pessimistic, the public's views of the economy may be becoming somewhat less gloomy -- both retrospectively and prospectively. * Specifically: Dec '89 Feb '90 March '90 A Year From Now Better 22 21 22 Worse 32 34 30 Compared to A Year Ago Better 14 10 11 Worse 27 36 32 Comment: The changes are too small to draw definitive conclusions; stand by. -3- THE ROSTENKOWSKI PLAN Another proposal has been made that would help balance the budget by cutting defense spending and by freezing all other federal government spending including social security cost of living increases; by increasing taxes on cigarettes, alcohol, and on gasoline and by increasing taxes for the highest income tax brackets. Would you favor or oppose this proposal? Don't Know 4 Neither 7 Favor 48 Oppose 40 * Marginal support transcends political party affiliation. Receives support from 48% of Republicans, 48% of Democrats, and 49% of Independents. * Strongest support comes from men under 45 (54%) and working women under 45 (also 54%) and voters between the ages of 18 and 24, and people who think of themselves as 'very liberal'! * Strongest opposition comes from lower end voters (!) and women over 45. Comments: Something to make just about everyone unhappy; lots of people may be calling Rosty on this one. The second Democratic proposal in two months to upset the social security constituency. -4- SANCTIONS AGAINST SOUTH AFRICA Regarding U.S. foreign policy in South Africa, in view of Nelson Mandela's release from jail, would you favor or would you oppose lifting U.S. economic sanctions against South Africa? Neither 8 Don't Know 13 Oppose 43 Favor 35 * By age, strongest opposition to lifting sanctions comes from those 18 to 24 years old (55% oppose, 33% favor). The older one is, the less likely he/she is to support continued sanctions. Only 31% of those 65 and over are opposed to lifting sanctions. * In addition to younger voters, strongest opponents of lifting sanctions include Blacks (58%), men under age of 45 (53%), strong Democrats (53%), and those who consider themselves "very" or "somewhat" liberal (59% and 51% respectively). -5- RANKING IMPORTANCE TO U.S. ECONOMIC INTERESTS On a zero to ten scale where zero means not at all important to the United States economic interests and ten means that the country is extremely important to the United States economic interests, how would you rate each of the following countries? 8 6 4 2 0 Japan Eastern Europe China West Germany Soviet Union South Korea * Despite other perceptions of Japan that may exist, its rank of 7.4 means it is clearly established in the minds of most voters as the country of greatest economic importance to the United States. Of those tested, South Korea ranked last. * Perceived importance of Japan is up from 6.8 in 1986. * Perceived importance of Eastern Europe is quite high considering the fact that the question was focused on economic interests rather than national security interests. Comments: While "economic nationalism" may be politically popular, the public is quite realistic about the importance of trade relations with Japan, just as Japanese polling suggests that its public may be more realistic about relations with the U.S. than its political leadership. -6- APPROVAL OF THE CIVILIAN SPACE PROGRAM Agree or disagree with the following / approve of America's civilian space program so far. America's civilian space program should be expanded. America's civilian space program should be continued as is. Expenditures for America's civilian space program should be cut back. Support for Space Program Time Trends 90 Approve so far Expand 80 Continue as is 70 Cut back 60 50 40 30 Jan '86 Aug '86 July '88 March '89 Feb '90 Approve of program so far Continue program as is Expond program, Cut back program * Public approval of the civilian space program is at an all time high (79%) 1. Sub-groups more likely to approve of the space program include younger voters, men, high income and more educated groups. * Compared to a year ago, voters are more likely to agree that the space program should be expanded. * 'Technological' and 'medical' advances are mentioned most often as the important benefits of the space program. The 'high cost' of the program is viewed as the most important disadvantage of the civilian space program. 1 Questions regarding the space program are from a separate national survey or 1200 registered voters conducted in February. The margin of error on this survey is +/- 2.8%. The survey was commissioned by Rockwell International. -7- NEW SPACE CRAFT TECHNOLOGY Are you aware or not aware of a program to build a new re-usable space plane that unlike the shuttle, would take off and land from a regular airport? The federal government has started the development of new technologies that may lead to the con- struction of a new MANNED SPACE CRAFT called the National Aerospace Plane that would fly into space and could use commercial airports to take off and land. Do you view the idea of such a program very favorably, somewhat favorably, somewhat unfavorably, or very unfavorably? A third of the public is aware of the new space craft 80 proposal. Awareness tends to be higher among 66 those groups that traditionally support the space 60 program (younger, male and the more educated). 40 33 20 0 Awore Not oware 50 Seventy percent supports the space plane. 42 40 30 27 20 17 11 10 3 0 Strongly fovor Somewhot Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose Don't know * 16% has 'seriously considered becoming an astronaut'; 40% would 'pay for a trip into space'; 2.5% of the population would be willing to pay $50,000 or more for a trip into space! -8- PRESIDENT BUSH'S PROPOSAL Are you aware or not aware of recent proposals by President Bush for new space missions? Last July, the President proposed a program to use space satellites to monitor the Earth's environ- ment and begin new manned missions to the Moon, followed by manned exploration of Mars. Do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose this proposed program? 80 Thirty-three percent of the public is aware of Presi- 66 dent Bush's proposed space program. Awareness 60 of the proposal correlates with media and news 40 33 attentiveness as well as specific interest in the space program. 20 0 Aware Not aware Once familiarized with the main points of President 50 Bush's proposal, 70% supports it. One of the primary 40 39 reasons for favoring the Bush program is the earth 31 30 observation function of the program. Increased con- cern with environment finds an expression in support 20 13 13 for the space program. The main reason for 10 4 opposing the program is its cost. 0 Very fovor Somewhat Somewhot unfavor Very unfavor Don't know -9- EXPENDITURES FOR THE CIVILIAN SPACE PROGRAM About what percentage of the federal government's budget do you think is spent for civilian space programs like satellites and space missions? Approximately 1% of the annual federal budget is currently spent on the civilian space program.. It has been estimated that the starting of new initiatives in space will require increasing NASA's bud- get to about 2% of the total federal budget. Do you agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree that this is a reasonable amount to spend? 5%-21% Awareness of the space program's share of the fed- eral budget is low. A majority of the public feels 1%-18% 10%-13% NASA's share is substantially higher that it actually is (Correct answer is 1%). 15%--8% Don't Know-- 19% 20%-13% 50% or more--8% Awareness of current budget When told what the actual share of the space pro- Strongly agree-31% gram's budget is, support for an increased budget is substantial. Sixty-seven percent of the public would Somewhat agree-36% support increasing NASA's budget share to about -Don't know--5% 2%. Strongly disagree 15% Somewhat disagree 13% Funding increase -10- Survey Methodology The parameters of this survey were as follows: Based on 1200 telephone interviews Probability-proportionate-to-size-sample of registered voters across continental United States Conducted March 16-25, 1990 Margin of error = plus or minus 2.8 Market Opinion Research is a diversified public opinion research company with offices in Washington, D.C. and Detroit, Michigan. Market Opinion Reports is published by the Political and Public Affairs Group in Washington, D.C. For further information contact Richard G. Reed, Vice President or Dr. Jan van Lohuizen, Group Vice President at: M Market Opinion Research 1400 L Street, NW Suite 650 Washington, D.C. 20005 Telephone: (202) 289-0420 Fax: 202-289-0519 Market Opinion Research--Corporate Headquarters Market Opinion Research Frederick P. Currier, Chairman, CEO M 243 West Congress Michael J. Carabio, President Suite 1000 Group Vice Presidents Detroit, Michigan 48226 Dr. Ronald Mulder, Newspaper & Health Care Telephone: (313) 963-2414 Dr. James Leiman, Consumer & Government Fax: (313) 963-6869 Gordon G. Goodrich, Automotive & Utilities Market Opinion Research Washington, D.C. Detroit, MI Monday, January 29, 1990 -- A-9 Balling Global Changes Are Encouraging Democrats' Hope The Democratic Party is without an identity, message or leader. What it does have, albeit tentatively, is some new hope. "By any fair accounting, the Democrats lost the 1980s,' said Democratic pollster Geoffrey Garin. "As the 1990s begin, voters can see that we're entering a new world, not just with the Russians, but with the world economy. This gives Democrats a great opportunity to define our competition with the Republicans in different terms. If there has ever been a party that needed to declare the last game over and have the next game start, it's the Democrats now." "In the short run, the changes in the world are going to help Bush," said Stuart Eizenstat, a party strategist who was domestic policy adviser to President Carter. "But in the long run, the Democrats should be the beneficiaries. As the neo-isolationist party, we've been at a disadvantage whenever the focus has been on international affairs. In a post-Cold War era, the issue agenda should return to areas of traditional Democratic strength, such as education and the environment, where it will be possible to make an affirmative case for activist government." (Paul Taylor, Washington Post, A1) Washington Post-ABC News Poll Which political party, the Democrats or the Republicans, do you trust to do a better job: a. Handling the nation's economy Dems.- - 33% Repub. -, 52% b. Handling the crime problem Dems.- - 31% Repub. - 32% C. Handling foreign affairs Dems. - 29% Repub. - 55% d. Handling the homeless problem Dems. - 56% Repub. - 25% e. Improving education & schools Dems. - 45% Repub. - 36% f. Reducing the problem of drugs Dems. - 28% Repub. - 47% g. Maintaining strong national defense Dems. - 25% Repub. - 62% h. Helping the middle class Dems. - 53% Repub. - 32% i. Holding taxes down Dems.- - 37% Repub. - 47% j. Protecting the environment Dems.- - 46% Repub. - 31% Overall, which party, the Democrats or Republicans, do you trust to do a better job in coping with the main problems the nation faces over the next decade? Jan. 16, 1990: Democrats - 38% Republicans - 50% Aug. 21, 1989: Democrats - 42% Republicans - 43% (Washington Post, A8) -more- Thursday, January 25, 1990 -- A-10 BENTSEN SUGGESTS VARYING GAINS TAXES New Element Injected Into Debate Ignited By Moynihan Proposal Sen. Bentsen (D.-Tex.) said Wednesday he is exploring the possibility of raising taxes on short-term capital gains while cutting the levy on assets held for a longer time While Moynihan's move "takes the edge off" President Bush's proposal to reduce capital gains taxes, Bentsen told reporters over breakfast, some form of capital gains tax cut will probably be approved this year -- although not necessarily in the form Bush seeks. As one option, Bentsen said Congress might cut taxes on assets held for long-term gains while increasing the rate now paid on those that are purchased for quick profits, thereby discouraging "churning" of assets and encouraging long-range investment and growth Bentsen emphasized that he was not committed to a tax increase for short-term gains and declined to discuss details, including how he would define a short-term gain Asked about Bentsen's suggestion, Rep. Rostenkowski (D.-III.) said he opposes any cut in capital gains taxes but said a higher rate on the sale of short-term assets is "something I'd look at." Bush has adamantly opposed any increase in taxes, but some congressional Republicans acknowledge that he may have to consider some increases as part of the price for a capital gains tax cut from the Democratic-controlled Congress. (Helen Dewar, Washington Post, A18) TAX-CUTTING PLANS ARE LESS THAN POPULAR This election year, Congress and the White House are vying for tax-cutting honors. But a national poll done this week for the Boston Globe shows that voters do not care for either of the two tax cuts the politicians are offering. One of the two, President Bush's call for a cut in the capital gains tax, is more popular than the other. And if it passes, Bush's standing with the electorate may have something to do with it: This week's Boston Globe/WBZ-TV poll found his popularity and job approval ratings to be at their highest levels since he took office a year ago this week. By a ratio of more than 7-2, voters interviewed this week disapproved of Sen. Moynihan's proposal to roll back Social Security taxes by $52 billion. After being told Moynihan's argument for cutting the tax and President Bush's argument against it, 72 percent said the Social Security taxes should not be cut. Just 20 percent supported the cut. By a margin of 49 percent to 37 percent, voters also disapproved of Bush's proposal to cut the capital gains tax. (Walter Robinson, Boston Globe) -more- Thursday, January 25, 1990 -- A-11 RAISING EPA TO CABINET DEPARTMENT: BUSH, IN POLICY SHIFT, ENDORSES IDEA President Bush Wednesday endorsed the idea of elevating the EPA to Cabinet status, saying that environmental challenges are "so important that they must be addressed from the highest level of our government." The announcement marks a shift in thinking by Bush, who initially balked at such proposals an unnecessary bureaucratic tinkering. But creating a Cabinet-level Department of the Environment, as proposed by measures in both chambers in Congress, is a longtime goal of environmentalists, who in recent weeks have become increasingly skeptical of whether Bush will fulfill his campaign pledge to be the "environmental" president Announcing his support for the legislation at his news conference Wednesday, Bush said that creating a Cabinet position would "help influence the world's environmental policy." But aside from the symbolic value of elevating the environment as an issue, making the EPA a Cabinet department would have little practical effect. EPA Administrator Reilly already attends Cabinet meetings and goes to international meetings as the top U.S. environmental official. (Michael Weisskopf, Washington Post, A25) BUSH'S BUDGET FOR HUD WILL EMPHASIZE HOMEOWNING BY LOW-INCOME PEOPLE The Bush Administration's proposed budget for HUD will emphasize home ownership for low-income and moderate-income people. Under the proposal, the department would shift $59.9 million currently allocated for rental programs to fund housing certificates that 2,000 low-income families could use to help purchse public-housing units, according to a government source But the budget's emphasis on home ownership could fuel criticism by low-income housing advocates who argue that these programs are funded at the expense of renters. (Joe Davidson, Wall Street Journal, A16) ENERGY DEPT. TO DROP CONTRACTOR SHIELD Government Will No Longer Indemnify Nuclear Plants' Losses Energy Department officials who are fined for violating environmental laws, who damage or lose government property or lose negligence lawsuits will no longer be reimbursed by the federal government, Energy Secretary Watkins announced Wednesday. Under rules to be published this spring, the department will abandon a practice that the government has followed for more that 40 years of indemnifying contractors for virtually any loss incurred in operation of nuclear plants The new rules, Watkins said, will reflect his "commitment to accountability and the safe and environmentally sound accomplishments of the DOE mission." (Thomas Lippman, Washington Post, A25) -more- Folling Text of the Boston Globe story: "Tax-Cutting Plans Less than Popular" by Walter V. Robinson This election year, Congress and the White House are vying for tax-cutting honors. But a national poll done this week for the Boston Globe shows that voters do not care for either of the two tax cuts the politicians are offering. One of the two, President Bush's call for a cut in the capital gains tax, is more popular than the other. And, if it passes, Bush's standing with the electorate may have something to do with it: This week's Boston Globe/WBZ-TV poll found his popularity and job approval ratings to be at their highest levels since he took office a year ago this week. By a ratio of more that 7-2, voters interviewed this week disapproved of Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan's proposal to roll back Social Security taxes by $52 billion. After being told the New York Democrat's argument for cutting the tax and Bush's argument against it, 72 percent said Social Security taxes should not be cut. Just 20 percent supported the cut. By a margin of 49 percent to 37 percent, voters also disapproved of Bush's proposal to cut the capital gains tax. That measure won support only among Republicans and among those earning the highest incomes, the group that would receive most of the benefits of such a cut. The poll of 1,005 registered voters was conducted on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday evenings by KRC/Communications Research, Inc. of Cambridge, Massachusetts. It has a margin of error of plus-or-minus three percentage points. In the poll, Bush exceeded the extraordinarily high approval ratings he has been receiving over the last several weeks. This week, 84 percent of those polled expressed a favorable opinion of the President, with just 11 percent expressing an unfavorable view. As for his job performance, 66 percent said they believe he is doing an excellent or above-average job. His previous high was 60 percent. This week, just 13 percent said his performance was below average or poor. Eighteen percent rated his performance as average. The President also won high marks for his handling of foreign policy: 56 percent said his handling of those issues was excellent or above average; 23 percent rated him below average or poor. On his handling of the economy, however, Bush did not fare as well. Just 38 percent gave him excellent or above average grades, while 37 percent gave him negative marks. of MARKET OPINION REPORTS a monthly look at national attitudes on political and public policy issues Published by: MARKET OPINION RESEARCH M February, 1990 MARKET OPINION REPORTS Market Opinion Reports summarizes a few key results of the January national voter attitude survey conducted by Market Opinion Research (MOR). MOR's Political and Public Affairs Group conducts national surveys on political and public policy issues each month. For more in- formation on MOR's series of monthly surveys, contact Richard G. Reed, Vice President or Dr. Jan van Lohuizen, Group Vice President in our Political and Public Affairs Group at: M Market Opinion Research 1400 L Street Suite 650 Washington, D.C. 20005 Telephone: 202-289-0420 Fax: 202-289-0519 For information on survey methodology, see last page. Market Opinion Reports is published monthly by Market Opinion Research. Entire contents copyrighted 1990 by Market Opinion Research. Permission is granted to quote this material without written permission from the publisher, provided accurate citation of the source is made. TABLE OF CONTENTS Right Direction Vs. Wrong Track 1 Bush Job Approval -- Up 5 Points From December 2 Expectations Of The Economy -- Pessimism Increasing 3 Dole Foreign Aid Proposal -- Strong Support 4 Peace Dividend -- Where Should Any Money Go? 5 U.S. Women In Combat -- Popular With Both Men and Women 6 Social Security -- Perceptions Of The System's Financial Health 7 Social Security Taxes And The Budget 8 Privatize Social Security -- Strong Appeal Among Younger Voters 9 Proposal To Cut Social Security Taxes 10 Partisan Mood Index 11 RIGHT DIRECTION VS. WRONG TRACK Do you feel things in this country are going in the right direction or do you feel things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? 90 Right direc tion 80 Wrong track 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 * Overall, voters are slightly more pessimistic than in December. Currently, 43% believe things are "going in the right direction". Forty-two percent (42%) believe things are "off on the wrong track". In December, 45% said "right direction", 40% said "wrong track". * Women continue to be more pessimistic than men. * Pessimism also increases with age. Of 18-24 year olds, 54% believe things are going in "right direction" while 38% believe thing are "off on the wrong track". Of those age 65 and over, 36% said "right direc- tion" while 50% said "wrong track". * Partisan differences remain. 56% of Republicans believe things are going in the "right direction". Only 33% of Democrats agree. Comments: Most of the increased pessimism can be traced to Republicans. While President Bush's popularity increased due to the Panama action, pessimism about the national economy appears to be spreading to Republicans. -1- BUSH JOB APPROVAL Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Bush is handling his job as President? Somewhat approve Strongly approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove December '89 (24) 66 February '90 (21) 71 (40) (20) 0 20 40 60 80 100 * The President's job approval rating improved to 71% from December's mark of 66%. * Those giving the President his highest marks include Republicans (89%) and those voters between 18 and 24 years old (75%). * Those most critical are still more likely to approve than disapprove of the President's performance. They include "strong Democrats" (50% approve, 39% disapprove), those who believe the economy will be worse one year from now (52%-34%), and Blacks (57%-34%). Comments: At 71% President Bush's popularity is extremely high, but already lower than the 80% approval figures immediately following the Panama invasion. -2- EXPECTATIONS OF THE ECONOMY Compared to a year ago / thinking about a year from now, do you think the national economy has gotten better, gotten worse, or stayed about the same? 70 A Year From Now Better 60 Worse 50 40 30 20 10 0 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 * Most voters continue to have a mixed-to-negative view of the economy. The percentage of those who believe the economy has gotten worse compared to a year ago is up 10 points from December. Cur- rently, 36% believe things are worse than a year ago. Only 10% believe they are better. * Expectations about the future of the economy declined as well. Thirty-four percent (34%) believe things will be worse a year from now compared to 32% last December. Only 21% believe things will be better. 40% don't expect any change. * Those most pessimistic are Democrats (only 18% think things will improve), those between the ages of 25 and 39 (18%), Blacks (17%) and housewives over the age of 45 (19%). * Those most optimistic include those between the ages of 18 and 24 (33% expect things to be better a year from now), and Republicans (29%). Comments: There is a notable contrast between foreign policy successes of the Bush administration and the increasing pessimism of the voters regarding the domestic economy. Nineteen- ninety could prove to be a bad year for incumbents. -3- DOLE PROPOSAL Currently the countries that receive the most foreign aid from the U.S. are Israel, Egypt and Pakistan. A proposal has been made to reduce our foreign aid commitment to these countries so that the U.S. can send more foreign aid to the countries in Eastern Europe. Would you favor or oppose such a proposal? Favor 55 DK 7 Oppose foreign aid 9 Oppose 29 * Those most supportive include high income voters (68%), Catholics (66%), those between the ages of 18 and 24 (63%) and Republicans (60%). * Those most likely to oppose the proposal include Blacks (54%), strong Democrats (41%) and those who consider themselves "very conservative" (44%). Comments: Given the massive amount of news attention devoted to developments in Eastern Europe in the last 6 months, 55% does not seem very high. The 9% that volunteered that they oppose all foreign aid is high since this option was not read to survey respondents, -4- PEACE DIVIDEND As you may have heard the federal government is considering significant cuts in the defense bud- get. If this were the case, of the following three choices, what do you think should be done with the savings from the defense cuts? Balance budget 47 Other 5 Cut taxes 21 Social programs 26 * Those most inclined to balance the budget with any "peace dividend" include Republicans (59%), high income voters (57%), active Protestants (57%), and men over the age of 45 (54%). Those least inclined to balance the budget include Blacks (28%), those who consider themselves "very liberal" (30%), and those between 18-24 years old (31%). * Those most likely to favor more spending on social programs include those who consider themselves "very liberal" (44%), Blacks (43%), strong Democrats (39%) and those living in the Pacific region (36%). Those least likely to support spending any "peace dividend" on social programs include those who con- sider themselves "very conservative" (13%), strong Republicans (12%), those between the ages of 55 and 64 (20%), and lower-end voters (21%). * Those most likely to support cutting taxes with any peace dividend include Blacks (28%), lower-end voters (28%), and those between the ages of 18 and 24 (28%). Comments: Balancing the budget is a higher priority than either social spending or cutting taxes. Only one percent of the sample volunteered that it did not want to see defense spending cut. -5- U.S. WOMEN IN COMBAT On a different subject, during the invasion in Panama American women were in involved in active combat for the first time. Do you approve or disapprove of this? Disapprove 30 Depends 6 DK/R 2 Approve 63 * Both women and men approve by margin of better than 2 - 1. * 71% of working women under the age of 45 approve. * 67% of housewives under the age of 45 approve; 50% of housewives over the age of 45 approve. * By age, strongest approval comes from those between the ages of 18 and 24 (70%), while the highest disapproval comes from voters over 65 (48% approve, 44% disapprove). Comments: Age is a much more important determinant of attitudes than gender. Differences among women are greater than between men and women. We've all come a long way. -6- SOCIAL SECURITY On the whole, would you say that the Social Security System / the people on the Social Security System are better off or worse off than they were five years ago? DK 13 Better 31 Better 33 Same 14 DK 10 Same 8 Worse 45 Worse 46 Social Security System People on Social Security * Overall, more voters believe the social security system is in "worse" shape than five years ago (45%) than think it's in "better" shape (34%). * However, 45% of voters age 55 and over believe the system is in "better" shape. Only 25% of this same group believes it is in "worse" shape. * By significant margins, younger voters are more likely to believe the system is in "worse" shape. For those voters between the ages of 18 and 39 years of age, 58% believe it is in "worse" shape. Only 25% think it is better. * When asked if the people on social security were "better" off or "worse" off than they were five years ago, results were similar. Of those age 65 and over, 45% said "better", 25% said "worse". Conversely, of those between 18 and 24 years of age, only 30% said "better" and 53% said "worse". Of those between 25 and 39 years of age, 21% said "better", 56% said "worse". * Compared to MOR results obtained in 1986, attitudes have changed slightly. At the time, 60% felt the system was in worse shape (45% now) and 58% felt people on social security were in worse shape (46% now). Comments: While, on balance, voters are pessimistic about the financial health of both the social security system are those who receive social security benefits, that pessimism has declined since measures taken three years ago. -7- SOCIAL SECURITY TAXES AND THE BUDGET And to the best of your knowledge are Social Security taxes being used to pay for other federal pro- grams, or are they not being used to pay for other federal programs? 100 80 60 56 40 22 21 20 0 Are Are not Don't know * Most voters, (56%), believe their social security taxes are being used to pay for other federal programs. * The older a voter is, the more likely he/she is to believe this. Of voters between the ages of 18-24, for example, 43% believe their social security taxes are being used to pay for other federal programs, 36% do not. Among those 65 years and over on the other hand, 63% do and 15% don't believe that is the case. -8- PRIVATIZE SOCIAL SECURITY A proposal has been made to give people the choice to divert some of the Social Security taxes they pay into savings plans that are similar to IRAs where they could direct their own investments. Under this proposal, the Social Security system would continue to meet its current obligations and meet the needs of the poor. From what you have heard, would you favor or oppose this proposal? 100 80 68 60 40 22 20 10 0 Favor Oppose Don't Know/Ref * Although popular in all age groups, this proposal is highly popular among younger voters (18 - 25: 87% favor; 25-39: 78% favor). * The proposal is equally attractive to Republicans as it is to Democrats, to liberals as it is to conserva- tives. Comments: Privatizing social security is a concept with great appeal to the younger age groups con- cerned about getting back the money they are paying in to system now. -9- PROPOSAL TO CUT SOCIAL SECURITY TAXES Because the social security system is currently raising more tax money than it is spending in bene- fits, some people have proposed cutting social security taxes. Would you favor or oppose such a cut in social security taxes? DK/R 7 Oppose 59 Favor 34 * All voter groups oppose the Moynihan proposal by similar margins. Age, party and ideological differ- ences are not important. Comments: The public is fundamentally conservative on social security. Since many members of the public still believe the program is in worse shape than it was five years ago, the inclination not to cut taxes is understandable. Republicans, for the first time in a decade, may have an opportunity to turn the issue on the Democrats. -10- PARTISAN MOOD INDEX The Partisan Mood Index (PMI) is gauged to measure the national climate of public opinion. "the national mood". It is a composite measure that takes into account a variety of indices, including expectations of the national economy, Presidential performance, and evaluations of political party preference. The PMI can assume a range of values running from zero (0) to one hundred (100). The baseline measure was taken in December 1989 at the time of the Bush-Gorbachev summit in Malta, but prior to the American military action in Pan- ama. December '89 51.7 Jan/Feb '90 56.2 0 20 40 60 Comments: George Bush's personal popularity drove the PMI up, in spite of increased pessimism about the national economy. Look for a downturn in the near future. -11- Survey Methodology The parameters of this survey were as follows: Based on 1200 telephone interviews Probability-proportionate-to-size-sample of registered voters across continental United States Conducted January 25-31, 1990 Margin of error = plus or minus 2.8 Market Opinion Research is a diversified public opinion research company with offices in Washington, D.C. and Detroit, Michigan. Market Opinion Reports is published by the Political and Public Affairs Group in Washington, D.C. For further information contact Richard G. Reed, Vice President or Dr. Jan van Lohuizen, Group Vice President at: M Market Opinion Research 1400 L Street, NW Suite 650 Washington, D.C. 20005 Telephone: (202) 289-0420 Fax: 202-289-0519 Other divisions based at MOR's Detroit offices include the following: Automotive Group Media Group Health Group GORDON G. GOODRICH DR. RONALD MULDER DR. JAMES LEIMAN Group Vice President Group Vice President Group Vice President 243 West Congress Detroit, Michigan 48226 Telephone: (313) 963-2414 Fax: (313) 963-6869 Market Opinion Research M Washington, D.C. Detroit, MI of THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DATE: 3-15-90 FROM THE PRESIDENT To: Brent/Bob Gates Some interesting foreign policy data on this new Teeter poll taken for WSJ/NBC- bran new Interesting on Germany Interesting on who our friends are. Interesting on For.Aid recipients. gb . cc: Sununu 03/15/90 16:50 002 WSJ/NBC National Survey March 10-13, 1990 N=1003 General Attitudes All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track? 3/90 1/90 11/89 9/89 Right direction 44% 49% 41% 42% Wrong track 31 29 35 34 Mixed (VOLUNTEERED) 20 17 19 19 Don't know 5 5 5 5 In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job George Bush is doing 3/90 1/90 11/89 9/89 as President Approve 69% 71% 67% 67% Disapprove 19% 19 22 17 Don't know 12 10 11 16 handling the economy Approve 53% 54 52 61 Disapprove 35 31 33 24 Don't know 12 15 15 15 handling foreign affairs Approve 67% 69 59 58 Disapprove 22 21 27 26 Don't know 11 10 14 16 03/15/90 16:50 003 Attitudes toward National Economy Do you think there will or will not be an economic recession during the next twelve months? 3/90 1/90 Will be an economic recession 30% 31% Will not be an economic recession 56 56 Don't know 14 13 Over the past year, do you think the national economy has gotten better, gotten worse, or stayed about the same? 3/90 1/90 11/89 9/89 Better 13% 12% 15% 18% Worse 37 29 34 23 About the same 48 57 49 57 Don't know 2 2 2 2 During the next year, do you think the national economy will get better, get worse, or stay about the same? 3/90 1/90 11/89 9/89 Get better 21% 22% 21% 25% Get worse 30 28 33 23 Stay about the same 44 44 39 43 Don't know 5 6 7 9 During the next year, do you think your family will be financially better off than it is today, worse off, or about the same? 3/90 1/90 11/89 9/89 Better off 27% 30% 31% 34% Worse off 16 9 14 13 About the same 55 59 53 51 Not sure 2 2 2 2 03/15/90 16:51 004 I'd like to read you a list of economic issues. As of right now, which one do you feel is the (most/second most) important issue facing the country? First/Second Choice 3/90 1/90 9/89 Federal budget deficit 48% 49% 51% Unemployment 38 39 38 U.S. trade deficit 34 38 37 Inflation 30 28 26 Federal taxes 19 18 21 Interest rates 12 11 11 03/15/90 16:51 005 Foreign Policy Do you think the most important foreign policy problems for the United States over the next few years will be dealing with the threat of war or economic competition? Which do you think is a greater threat to the United States' future competition? security--the threat of communist expansion or foreign economic Future Future Problems Threat Threat of war/Expansion 8% 6% Foreign econ. competition 87 85 Both/Neither (VOL) 3 6 Not sure 2 3 Do you think the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union is still going on, or is it mostly over? 3/90 12/89 11/89 Cold War still going on 41% 46% 46% Cold War mostly over 51 40 46 Not sure 8 14 8 Let me read you a list of some countries around the world. For each, please tell me whether you think that country is a strong ally and friend of the United States, a basically friendly nation, a neutral country which is neither an ally nor an enemy of the U.S. or an enemy of the United States. Neutral/ Strong Basically Neither Ally/ Friendly Ally Nor Not Friend Nation Enemy Enemy Sure Great Britain 66% 19% 85% 11% 11 35% 1% 3% Egypt 24 44 5 16 China 4 16 20 50 21 9 Japan 18 30 48 33 14 5 The Soviet Union 4 18 44 29 to 26 8 West Germany 31 22 23 45% 28 4 8 Israel 30 13 12 03/15/90 16:52 006 Currently, 47% of all United States foreign aid goes to five countries, including Israel, Egypt, and the Philippines. Recently, it has been suggested that we take 5% of the money going to these five countries and use it to help emerging democracies in Eastern Europe and Panama. Would you approve or disapprove of this plan? 3/90 Approve 63% 11 Disapprove 24 Disapprove of all foreign aid (VOL) 4 Depends on what other two countries are (VOL) 5 Not sure 4 03/15/90 16:52 007 German Reunification Recently, there has been a lot of discussion about East Germany and West Germany reunifying. In general, do you think the idea of the two Germanies becoming one nation again is a good idea or a bad idea? 3/90 Good idea 72% Bad idea 12 Some of both (VOL) 5 Not sure 11 Why do you feel this would be a (good idea/bad idea) ? Good Idea Bad 1dea it is only right; they belong Every time they are together they together; they are all Germans; start a war 5 it is about time they reunited 22 Good for economic reasons; their They will become too strong 3 economy will improve 15 It was inevitable; there was no Bad idea for economic reasons; reason for them to be apart; West Germany can't withstand they were one nation once 11 the financial burden 3 Good for the German people, a They are too nationalistic; morale-builder for them 9 they discriminate 2 Families will be reunited 8 Don't trust them; together they spell trouble; they haven't changed 2 03/15/90 16:52 008 Regardless of whether you think the reunification of Germany is a good idea or a bad idea, is this something that concerns you a lot, concerns you some, or concerns you very little? 3/90 A lot 22% Some 43 Very little 34 Not sure 1 Which would concern you more about a united Germany--its military strength or its economic strength? A lot/Some Total Concerned Military strength 33% 34% r Economic strength 51 50 Both equally (VOL) 8 10 Neither (VOL) 5 4 Not sure 3 2 Do you think the United states should or should not demand any conditions before agreeing to a reunification of Germany--or don't you think we have any right to demand conditions? 3/90 The United States should demand conditions 45% The United States should not demand conditions 15 The United States does not have any right 47 to demand conditions 32 Not sure 8 03/15/90 16:53 0 009 Here are a few conditions some Americans have suggested should be in place before they would allow East and West Germany to reunite. For each, please tell me whether you would favor or oppose this condition. Total US Demand Conditions Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Have them remain a part of the European Economic Community 78% 13 85% 8 Have them sign a pact to remain part of NATO and an ally of the United States 75 17 85 10 Have them agree not to keep nuclear weapons 74 21 83 15 Have them limit the size of their army 66 27 83 13 Have them disarm 34 58 40 54 If there is a reunification between East and West Germany, do you think there would or would not be a serious risk of Germany becoming a military aggressor? 3/90 Would be 33% Would not be 53 Not sure 14 03/15/90 16:53 1010 European Troop Levels Currently, the United States has about 300,000 troops in Europe. President Bush has proposed that both the United States and the Soviet Union reduce their troops to just under 200,000. Others in Congress favor reducing troops to 100,000. What is your preference--keeping troops at 300,000, reducing troops to 200,000, or reducing American forces to 100,000? 3/90 Staying at 300,000 16% Reducing to 200,000 38 Reducing to 100,000 37 Increase troops (VOL) 1 Remove all troops (VOL) 2 Not sure 6 Do you think that over the next several years the goal of the United States should be to remove almost all its troops from Europe, or do you think in will be important that we always maintain at least some troops there? U.S. should remove almost all its troops 18% U.S. should always maintain some troops 76 Depends (VOL) 4 Not sure 2 03/15/90 16:53 011 Nicaragua Do you think the United States should or should not provide substantial economic assistance to Nicaragua to help rebuild its economy? Should provide substantial assistance 44% Not Good. Should not provide substantial assistance 43 Not sure 13 I'd like to read you several possible reasons for the results of the recent Nicaraguan election. For each reason, please tell me whether you think it was extremely important, fairly important, only somewhat important, or not important. only Extremely Fairly Somewhat Not Not Important Important Important Important Sure The desire for a change in government on the part of the Nicaraguan people 61% 19 12 3 5 The actions and policies of leaders of other Central American countries 28 27 26 8 11 The U.S. policy of funding the contras 23 22 25 20 10