Ask the Scholar
Document scope · 1 page
Scholar
Ask about this object, its catalog metadata, its source description, or the page inventory.
For page-specific OCR and visual context, open one of the page chats.
Scholar Source Context
Document identity
localId
702492
label
Polling (1 of 3) 1991 [2]
core
doc
dtoType
document
citationUrl
pageCount
1
Source metadata
id
702492
sourceUrl
contentType
document
title
Polling (1 of 3) 1991 [2]
citationUrl
identifierLocal
29168-005
collections
Records of the White House Office of the Chief of Staff to the President (George H. W. Bush Administration)
John Sununu Issues Files
imageCount
1
hasImages
yes
source
import
hasTranscription
no
Source extras
naId
702492
levelOfDescription
fileUnit
recordType
description
ocrSource
nara-archive
Single page context
seq
1
pageIndex
0
type
document
mediaId
db811d4e4179f28e
ocrText
Originally Processed With FOIA(s):
FOIA Number:
1998-0004-F[2]; 1999-0098-F; 1999-0163-F
S
FOIA
MARKER
This is not a textual record. This is used as an
administrative marker by the George Bush Presidential
Library Staff.
Record Group/Collection: George H.W. Bush Presidential Records
Collection/Office of Origin: Chief of Staff, White House Office of
Series:
Sununu, John, Files
Subseries:
Issues Files
OA/ID Number:
29168
Folder ID Number:
29168-005
Folder Title:
Polling (1 of 3) 1991 [2]
Stack:
Row:
Section:
Shelf:
Position:
G
15
25
3
6
Research/Strategy/Management
ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND THE PUBLIC'S PRIORITIES
Rimped
Energy policy and environmental issues are the focus for this
national study of 1,200 adults conducted jointly by the Washington,
D.C., Republican and Democratic polling firms of
Research/Strategy/Management, Inc., and Greenberg/Lake, Inc.
Personal interviews, completed by telephone, were conducted between
the seventh and eleventh of December 1990. The margin of error for
most reported aggregate results is plus or minus three percentage
points. Project director for R/S/M, Inc., is Dr. Vincent J.
Breglio; Ms. Celinda Lake is the project director for
Greenberg/Lake, Inc. This study is the third in a series of
national surveys on energy policy. Previous studies were conducted
in October 1988 and November 1989
A QUICK LOOK AT KEY FINDINGS
The following present a few of the most notable findings:
1. Reducing Oil Dependence. Offered alternative approaches
for dealing with U.S. dependence on foreign oil supplies
-- one based on increasing the oil supply through new
exploration and development and the other based on
reducing demand for fossil fuels through increased
efficiency -- three out of four Americans believe
reducing demand makes more sense than increasing supply.
2. Global Warming. Seven out of ten persons (69%) feel the
United States should join now with other industrial
countries and limit carbon dioxide emissions from fossil
fuels released into the air rather than wait for more
scientific evidence on the accuracy of global warming
predictions. Three out of four persons (73%) say they
would be willing to pay more for fossil fuels if the
added cost is earmarked to prevent serious consequences
from global warming.
1
Research/Strategy/Management
3.
Automotive Energy Standards. Increasing federal fuel
economy standards to 40 mpg by the year 2000 is not only
popular (84% support it) but also represents a strongly
held point of view (63% strongly favor versus only 6%
strongly opposed) 1 Among those who favor the increase,
89% say they would still be in favor of higher fuel
economy standards even if a new car cost the buyer $500
more as a result.
4.
Energy Research Priorities. Americans continue to stress
the development of renewable energy sources such as solar
or wind as their top priority. Seventy-five percent
(75%) would give it the largest or next largest share of
Department of Energy's research dollar and more than half
(59%) believe different energy sources such as solar and
wind should be emphasized more than other strategies to
meet America's energy needs for the future. Energy
conservation runs a close second as a research priority
with two out of three persons (67%) assigning it top
shares of the Department's energy research budget.
5. Home/Building Energy Efficiency. Utilities should be
encouraged to invest in energy efficiency improvements
in their customers' homes and buildings. Clearly, nine
out of ten persons (86%) favor requiring federal and
state regulators to provide incentives to utilities for
such improvements. A similar number (91%) favor
requiring conformity to federal standards for energy
efficiency for new homes financed by FHA or VA mortgages.
1.
The ratio of strongly held positive opinion (strongly favor)
to strongly held negative opinion (strongly oppose) is a
measure of attitude intensity. In this case, the intensity
of feeling on the question of fuel economy standards measures
10.5 to 1. Opinions expressed with intensity ratios equal to
or larger than 4 should be noted.
2
Research/Strategy/Management
6. Other Energy Alternatives. Three additional energy
policy alternatives stand out because of their broad
appeal and high measure of favorable intensity. These
include:
*
incentives to use or develop alternative fuels
such as fuels produced from grains;
*
tax credits for consumers who use renewable
energy sources such as solar or wind power;
*
tax rebates for new cars that get better
mileage than the federal standard.
Conversely, public opinion runs nearly as broad and strong in
opposition to the following:
*
developing oil reserves off-shore or on
publicly-owned land if this might cause some
environmental damage;
*
using coal if this caused some environmental
damage;
*
building more nuclear power plants.
Additional highlights and findings from this national study are
presented in the following sections.
MOOD OF THE COUNTRY
Anxious about conflicts abroad and disturbed by a slowdown in the
economy at home, the year 1990 draws to a close with the majority
of persons (57%) believing the country has gotten off on the wrong
track. Few of the good feelings and positive expectations fueled
by the remarkable events out of central and eastern Europe measured
in last year's study remain intact. Indeed, a drop of seventeen
points has occurred in the percentage of people who say the country
is generally going in the right direction (47% to 30%). Still,
George Bush receives overall job approval from a strong majority
of Americans (60%). This represents an eight point decrease from
his approval rating in our study one year ago (68% to 60%).
On the national domestic agenda, improving education, reducing the
deficit and providing affordable health care are mentioned most
often as top priority items. Energy and environmental concerns are
less salient in the thinking of most persons.
For more detail on the mood of the country refer to Table 1.
3
Research/Strategy/Management
TABLE 1
MOOD OF THE COUNTRY
QUESTION: Do you feel things in the country are generally going in
the right direction, or have things pretty seriously
gotten off on the wrong track?
Nation Northeast Midwest South West
Right Direction
30
22
33
31
32
Wrong Track
57
66
54
56
52
Don't know/Refused
13
12
13
12
16
QUESTION: And, do you approve or disapprove of the way George Bush
is handling his job as President?
Nation
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
Strongly Approve
25
18
28
27
26
Somewhat Approve
35
37
32
36
35
Somewhat Disapprove
16
19
18
13
16
Strongly Disapprove
14
19
10
14
16
Don't know/Refused
9
7
12
10
7
QUESTION: Other than the state of the economy, which of the
following domestic goals would you say is the most/next
most important for the President to address? (FIRST AND
SECOND MENTION)
Nation
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
Provide more affordable
36
34
40
34
35
health care
Reduce the federal
42
41
41
42
35
deficit
Protect the
28
28
28
23
33
environment
Improve the quality of
42
43
46
30
39
primary & secondary
education
Strengthen laws to crack
30
25
24
37
33
down on crime
Develop dependable and
15
16
12
17
15
secure sources of
energy
Don't know/Refused
8
3
9
9
10
4
Research/Strategy/Management
ENERGY CRISIS
When asked specifically about their perceptions of our energy
situation today, two out of three persons (67%) hold the view that
even now we are entering a period of energy crisis -- with things
like gasoline shortages, sharply higher prices and oil supply
disruptions -- just as we did in the 1970's.
This contrast with the relative low salience of energy on the
national domestic agenda may be explained in part by perceptions
of our confrontation with Iraq. The reason given most often as the
best explanation of why the United States has troops aligned
against Iraq is - "to secure Middle East oil supplies for the U.S.
and its allies" (50%). The perception that our foreign oil
supplies are threatened is definitely related to the sense that the
U.S. is entering a period of energy crisis.
The confrontation with Iraq has also precipitated debate over the
best way to take care of the nation's future energy needs. Some
experts argue that the Iraq/Kuwait situation demonstrates the need
to increase our oil supply by opening up domestic oil and gas
exploration off the coasts and in natural wilderness areas. Other
experts argue that it makes more sense to reduce demand by
promoting fuel efficiency, car pooling and mass transportation.
By the margin of three to one (75%), the public endorses the
position of reduced demand over increased development. This
position is favored by all subgroups. From a partisan perspective,
all majority voter groups endorse reducing demand. It is least
popular among conservative Democrats who are the most likely to
support increasing production as their favored alternative. But
even with this group, more than six out of ten favor reducing
demand.
For more detail on each of the above issues see Table 2.
ENVIRONMENT, ENERGY AND THE FUTURE
Americans are not optimistic that their environment will be better
in the future than it is today. Four out of ten (40%) believe the
quality of their environment will not be as good in just three
years. Those in the West tend to be somewhat more pessimistic than
others with nearly one out of two (46%) who think their environment
will deteriorate over the next three years. Whatever the
perception of the environment in future years, there is strong
agreement that we need some changes from the status quo to meet
America's energy needs.
5
Research/Strategy/Management
TABLE 2
PROSPECTS OF AN "ENERGY CRISIS"
QUESTION: Some people say the "energy crisis" like the United
States experienced in the 1970's -- with things like
gasoline shortages, sharply higher prices and oil supply
disruptions -- will not happen again. Other people say
even now we are entering a period of energy crisis just
as we did in the 1970's. Which view is closer to your
own?
Nation
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
Will not happen again
24
20
25
22
30
Entering a period of
67
73
66
68
61
crisis even now
Don't know/Refused
9
7
9
10
9
QUESTION: The United States has stationed hundreds of thousands of
troops in the Middle East. Which of the following
reasons best explains why we are there:
Nation
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
Liberating Kuwait from
28
27
28
26
33
Iraqi occupation
Secure Middle East oil
50
52
52
49
45
supplies for the U.S.
and its allies
Neutralize Iraq's
14
12
13
14
17
growing chemical and
nuclear weapon
capability
Don't know/Refused
8
9
7
10
6
6
Research/Strategy/Management
TABLE 2 (Con't)
PROSPECTS OF AN "ENERGY CRISIS"
QUESTION: Some people say the Iraq crisis demonstrates the need to
increase our oil supply by opening up domestic oil and
gas exploration off our coasts and in natural wilderness
areas. Others say it makes more sense to reduce our
demand for oil by requiring more fuel efficient cars,
encouraging car pooling and promoting mass transit
alternatives. Which point of view comes closest to your
own opinion of what we ought to do?
Nation Northeast Midwest South West
Increase supply
21
22
19
26
15
Reduce demand
75
75
79
70
78
Don't Know/Refused
4
3
2
4
7
Conservative Mod/Liberal Conservative Mod/Liberal
Republican
Republican
Democrat
Democrat
Increase supply
20
19
31
17
Reduce demand
76
79
65
79
Don't Know/Refused
3
2
3
3
7
Research/Strategy/Management
To provide for energy in the future, six out of ten (59%) of those
surveyed believe emphasis should be given to finding different
energy sources such as solar and wind power. Finding ways to use
less energy is the priority for one out of four persons (25%)
while producing more oil, gas and coal is chosen by one in ten
(11%) as the emphasis for the future of America's energy needs.
Putting each respondent in the role of research and development
budget allocator for the Department of Energy, reinforces the high
priority placed on renewables. Nearly one out of two (47%) give
renewables top priority funding over oil and coal, nuclear energy
and energy conservation. Another three out of ten (28%) mention
it as their number two priority. Following renewables closely in
the public's allocation of energy research dollars, is energy
conservation. Nearly three out of ten (28%) make it their top
priority; while four out of ten (39%) place it second in budget
priority.
The high priority assigned to developing new or renewable sources
of energy in this study is further supported by the two out of
three (69%) who expect renewables will be providing at least some
of our energy needs by the year 2000. One person in four (25%)
expects that renewables can produce enough energy to meet a lot of
our needs by that time.
For more detail on these questions refer to Tables 3 and 4.
GLOBAL WARMING
Awareness of the global warming issue has grown from approximately
six out of ten persons in the first study done in October of 1988
(58%), to eight out of ten persons in November of 1989 (79%), to
nearly nine out of ten persons today (December 1990 - 86%). While
awareness reaches a majority within all subgroups, it does vary
as a function of exposure to print media. More affluent, well-
educated persons have a higher level of awareness than less
affluent, less well-educated persons.
8
Research/Strategy/Management
TABLE 3
FUTURE ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY NEEDS
QUESTION: Think for a minute about the quality of the environment
in which you live. Everything considered, what do you
think the quality of your environment will be like 3
years from now? Will it be better than it is today,
about the same, or not as good as it is today?
Nation
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
Better than today
18
19
17
16
20
About the same
40
45
45
38
33
Not as good
40
34
36
43
46
Don't know/Refused
2
1
2
3
1
QUESTION: In order to help provide for the country's overall need
for energy in the future, which do you think should be
emphasized most?
Nation
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
Finding ways to produce
11
10
12
13
8
more oil, gas & coal
Finding ways to use
25
22
26
25
27
less energy
Finding different energy
59
63
59
55
60
sources such as solar
and wind
Don't know/Not Sure
5
5
4
7
5
QUESTION: When you think about America's energy needs in the
future, what worries you most?
Nation
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
That it will cost too
23
23
26
24
19
much
There will not be
21
22
15
25
20
enough to go around
That producing it will
26
26
27
23
28
hurt the environment
That national security
24
24
25
24
25
will be threatened
by our dependence on
foreign oil
Don't know/Refused
6
3
8
4
7
9
Research/Strategy/Management
TABLE 4
ENERGY RESEARCH PRIORITIES
QUESTION: Suppose you were the person responsible for funding
research and development in the Department of Energy.
Four areas want your money for research and development -
- oil and coal, nuclear energy, energy conservation and
solar, wind and other renewable energy sources. Which
of these four would you fund with the MOST money and
which of these four would you fund with THE SECOND MOST
money -- oil and coal, nuclear energy, energy
conservation or solar, wind and other renewable energy
sources?
Mentioned As
Mentioned as
Mentioned as
Top Funding
Second Funding
Last Funding
Priority
Priority
Priority
Oil and Coal
12
14
33
Nuclear
10
15
43
Energy Conservation
28
39
8
Renewables
47
28
9
Don't know/Refused
3
3
7
QUESTION: Think about renewable sources of energy such as solar or
wind power. Can renewable energy sources produce enough
energy to meet a lot of our energy needs, some of our
needs, or only a little of our needs by the year 2000?
Nation
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
A Lot
25
26
23
25
28
Some
44
43
45
46
40
Little
24
25
24
21
25
Don't know/Refused
7
6
7
8
7
10
Research/Strategy/Management
In our study of November 1989, seven out of ten persons felt that
the United States must take the lead in fighting global warming.
A repeat of this question in the current survey shows no change in
opinion regarding the leadership role of this country. Again seven
out of ten persons believe the U.S. should take the lead in
fighting global warming.
However, some circumstances have changed since the 1989 study. A
number of industrial countries have made unilateral commitments to
limit or reduce the levels of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil
fuels. The current Bush administration position stresses the
uncertainty of scientific predictions of global warming and refuses
to commit to any carbon dioxide limit until there is more evidence.
When presented with the choice to join now with other countries and
make a commitment to lowering carbon dioxide levels from fossil
fuels or wait for more scientific evidence before making such a
commitment, seven out of ten respondents (69%) choose action now.
One out of four (27%) feel we should wait for more scientific
evidence of global warming. The call for action now has a
decidedly ideological tilt to it with fewer conservatives than
moderates/liberals lining up to support it. Still, majorities
within each partisan/ideological group opt to see the U.S. take
action now.
When asked how much more per month they would be willing to pay for
fossil fuels to prevent global warming from having serious
consequences, three persons out of four (77%) indicate a
willingness to pay something. The median amount is nearly eleven
dollars ($10.81).
Table 5 provides more information on each of these questions.
ENERGY EFFICIENCY
The need to use energy more efficiently appears to be taken very
seriously by the great majority of Americans (72%). Indeed, eight
out of ten believe they can lower their energy bills by developing
better energy habits or by investing in more energy efficient
techniques and appliances. Among those who anticipate a saving,
the median estimate of the decrease in utility bills is
approximately 9% from developing better energy use habits and 10%
from investing in more energy efficient techniques. The biggest
perceived obstacle to making any changes leading to more efficiency
is how much they cost. Listen to the verbatim comments of a few
of those interviewed:
"Money. When you don't have the money you can't do the
job."
"Cost. If something came along that was more efficient
we couldn't afford it."
11
Research/Strategy/Management
TABLE 5
GLOBAL WARMING
QUESTION: Have you ever read and/or heard anything about global
warming sometimes called the "greenhouse effect?"
Nation Northeast Midwest South West
Yes
86
89
89
80
91
No
13
11
10
19
9
Don't know/Refused
1
--
1
1
--
QUESTION: Because the U.S. is the largest contributor of global
warming gases, some have argued that the U.S. must take
the lead in fighting global warming. Others have argued
that the U.S. should wait until there is an international
agreement for all nations to move together to fight this
problem. Which of these two positions comes closest to
your own view?
Nation
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
U.S. should take lead
68
71
67
67
68
U.S. should wait for
27
24
29
27
28
int'l agreement
Don't know/Refused
5
5
4
7
4
12
Research/Strategy/Management
TABLE 5 (Con't)
GLOBAL WARMING
QUESTION: Because of their concern about global warming, many
industrial countries have recently made commitments to
limit or reduce their amount of carbon dioxide from
fossil fuels released into the air. The Bush
Administration believes that scientific predictions of
global warming are too uncertain and refuses to commit
the U.S. to any such carbon dioxide limit. Do you
believe the U.S. should join other industrial countries
in committing to carbon dioxide emissions limits, or
should we wait for greater scientific certainty before
making such a commitment?
Nation Northeast Midwest South West
Join other countries
69
75
68
66
71
Wait for more evidence
26
22
27
29
26
Don't know/Refused
4
3
5
5
4
Conservative Mod/Liberal Conservative Mod/Liberal
Republican
Republican
Democrat
Democrat
Join other
countries
65
72
69
79
Wait for more
evidence
29
26
29
18
Don't know/
Refused
6
2
2
2
QUESTION: Now suppose the price you pay for fossil fuels like coal,
oil and natural gas had to go up to prevent global
warming from having serious consequences, what is the
maximum additional monthly cost you would be willing to
pay:
Nation
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
Nothing
15
12
16
15
16
Less than $5 more
20
20
19
24
15
$5-$15 more
29
28
31
27
33
$15-$30 more
14
12
15
15
13
More than $30
14
20
14
10
15
Don't know/Refused
8
8
6
9
9
13
Research/Strategy/Management
Cost is followed closely by lack of incentive or just being too
lazy to get it done:
"We could probably be more efficient in what we use
already except that old habits are hard to break."
"I'd say probably convenience; it's just what's available
now is very easy, things like my TV and stereo."
"Just resistent to change. I could wear more clothes and
turn down the heat but I don't want to."
On another topic related to energy efficiency, two out of three
persons (66%) accept the view that using the electricity we have
more efficiently could make it unnecessary to build new power
plants in order to meet increased demand. Three out of ten (28%)
disagree and would opt for constructing new power plants to satisfy
demand.
Based on respondent experience with their electric power companies,
these organizations are rated above average for promoting energy
efficiency. A plurality of all persons, more than four out of ten
(42%), give their electric utility companies above average marks.
Only one in five (22%) believe performance has been sub-par.
Greater detail on the above topics may be found in Tables 6 and 7.
NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY
Public reaction to nineteen energy policy alternatives sharply
contrasts the most and least favored options for a national energy
agenda.
Among the most popular of the alternatives focuses on increasing
the federal fuel economy standard for auto companies to 40 miles
to the gallon by the year 2000. More than eight out of ten persons
(84%) support this policy change -- six out of ten (63%) strongly
favor such action. Among those supporting the higher fuel economy
standard, nine out of ten (89%) claim they would still support it
even if a new car would cost the buyer $500 more.
Majorities (53% in each case) also reject the statements that
Detroit auto makers are doing their best to develop and sell to
their customers fuel efficient cars that get more miles to the
gallon than the present standard.
Five additional alternative policies are both widely popular
(favored by more than eight out of ten persons) and strongly
supported (intensity ratio of strongly favor to strongly oppose
plus six or greater).
14
Research/Strategy/Management
TABLE 6
PERCEPTIONS OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY
QUESTION: From what you have heard or read, how serious is the need
to use energy more efficiently?
Nation
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
Very serious
72
73
66
75
75
Somewhat serious
25
23
30
22
24
Not serious
2
3
2
2
1
Don't know/Refused
1
1
2
1
-
QUESTION: How much to do you think you could reduce your energy
bill by developing better habits that you would be
willing to do now?
Nation
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
Not at all
11
11
10
11
14
1-4%
26
27
29
27
19
5-9%
19
18
19
16
25
10-14%
18
20
17
16
19
15% or more
22
21
20
25
19
Don't know/Refused
4
4
4
4
4
QUESTION: And how much do you think that you could reduce your
energy bill by investing in more energy efficient
techniques?
Nation
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
Not at all
16
13
16
17
16
1-10%
42
41
47
37
45
11-20%
20
18
18
21
21
21-30%
9
8
9
11
7
More than 30%
8
13
6
8
6
Don't know/Refused
5
7
4
6
5
15
Research/Strategy/Management
TABLE 6 (Con't)
PERCEPTIONS OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY
QUESTION: What are some of the things preventing you from making
the changes leading to more efficient use of energy?
Nation
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
Doing all I can do now
34
34
36
32
35
Cost too much
29
32
29
28
27
Too lazy/Habit/Just
16
15
14
17
18
not convenient
High cost of home
15
14
16
14
14
improvements
Renting/Don't own home
8
8
6
8
9
Lack of knowledge
5
6
5
4
5
Can't car pool/Need
3
3
3
3
2
mass transit
Can't afford fuel
2
2
2
1
2
efficient car
Lack of time
2
2
2
2
2
Energy efficient
2
1
3
-
2
products not
available
Americans need to
2
1
1
2
1
commit to energy
conservation
16
Research/Strategy/Management
TABLE 7
ELECTRICAL POWER
QUESTION: Some say new power plants must be built in the next
several years to meet increased demand or we will have
power shortages in many places. Others say that using
the electricity we have more efficiently could make it
unnecessary to build new power plants. Which point of
view is closest to your own?
Nation
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
Build new power plants
28
28
26
31
28
More efficient use of
66
65
69
63
67
electricity
Don't know/Refused
6
7
5
6
5
QUESTION: From your own experience, do you think your electric
utility company is doing an excellent, above average,
below average or poor job in promoting energy efficiency?
Nation Northeast Midwest South West
Excellent
13
12
8
15
16
Above average
29
28
31
28
28
Average (Do not read)
34
33
36
33
31
Below average
11
9
10
11
13
Poor
11
12
11
11
9
Don't know/Refused
3
5
3
2
3
17
Research/Strategy/Management
The five policy options are:
*
Requiring new homes financed by FHA and VA mortgages to
meet federal standards for energy efficiency;
*
Providing incentives to use or develop alternative fuels,
such as fuels produced from grains;
*
Re-establishing federal tax credits for consumers who use
renewable energy sources such as solar or wind power;
*
Requiring federal and state regulators to provide
incentives to utilities for investing in energy
efficiency improvements in their customers' homes and
buildings.
*
Providing a tax rebate for new cars that get better
mileage than the federal standard.
At the other extreme, opposition to "Adding a federal gas tax of
$.50 per gallon phased in over several years and earmarked for an
environmental trust fund" and "Building more nuclear power plants
in the United States" runs both wide (more than six out of ten
oppose) and deep (intensity ratio of nearly four to one in strong
opposition).
Strong opposition to the $.50 per gallon gas tax relaxes to
moderate support for a $.10 per gallon federal gas tax. A majority
of persons (56%) favor adding a federal gas tax of $.10 per gallon
earmarked for an environmental trust fund. However, the intensity
ratio of 1.0 suggests an equal balance of strong opposition and
support for such action.
Energy policy alternatives associated with the possibility of
environmental damage drives opposition to exceptionally high
levels. More than seven out of ten people oppose (approximately
half strongly oppose) the following options:
*
Developing oil reserves on publicly-owned wilderness
lands, even if this caused some environmental damage;
*
Opening more off-shore areas along both coasts to oil
drilling, even if this caused some environmental damage;
*
Increasing use of coal even if this caused some
environmental damage.
Tables 8, 9 and 10 provide additional information on the full range
of energy policy alternatives tested.
18
Research/Strategy/Management
TABLE 8
FUEL ECONOMY STANDARDS AND PUBLIC OPINION
QUESTION: Federal fuel economy standards require that auto
companies produce cars that, on average, get 27.5 miles
per gallon. Would you favor or oppose an increase in
federal fuel economy standards for auto companies
requiring that cars, on average, get 40 miles to the
gallon by the year 2000?
Nation
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
Strongly favor
63
63
61
61
68
Somewhat favor
21
23
22
23
14
Somewhat oppose
7
7
9
5
10
Strongly oppose
6
4
6
6
6
Don't know/Refused
3
3
2
5
2
QUESTION: Would you still favor this proposal if you knew that a
new car would cost the buyer $500 more?
Nation
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
Yes, still favor
89
90
90
89
87
No, change mind
9
9
9
10
10
Don't know/Refused
2
1
1
1
2
QUESTION: "Detroit auto makers are doing their best to develop fuel
efficient cars that get more miles to the gallon than the
current federal standard of 27.5."
Nation
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
Strongly agree
13
10
13
15
13
Somewhat agree
26
25
26
26
27
Somewhat disagree
20
20
19
20
18
Strongly disagree
33
36
36
30
32
Don't know/Refused
8
9
6
8
10
QUESTION: "Detroit auto makers are doing their best to sell
customers fuel efficient cars that get more miles to the
gallon than the current federal standard of 27.5."
Nation
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
Strongly agree
14
13
13
14
15
Somewhat agree
24
22
23
29
19
Somewhat disagree
21
22
22
20
21
Strongly disagree
32
32
34
29
33
Don't know/Refused
9
11
8
7
11
19
Research/Strategy/Management
TABLE 9
NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY: OIL AND GAS POLICY ALTERNATIVES
(Ranked from Most Favored to Least Favored)
STRNG SMWHT SMWHT STRNG DON'T INTEN.
RANK
QUESTION
FAVOR FAVOR OPPOSE OPPOSE KNOW
1
Providing incentives to
65
24
5
3
3
21.7
use or develop alterna-
tive fuels such as fuels
produced from grains.
2
Increasing
63
21
7
6
3
10.5
federal fuel economy
standards for auto
companies requiring that
cars, on average, get
40 mpg by the year 2000.
3
Providing a tax rebate
52
30
8
8
2
6.5
for new cars that get
better mileage than the
federal standard.
4
Providing a cash benefit
34
38
11
14
3
2.4
for scrapping older,
less fuel efficient cars.
5
Adding a tax penalty on
39
23
14
21
3
1.9
new cars getting fewer
miles to the gallon than
the federal standard.
6
Adding a federal gas tax
23
33
17
24
3
1.0
of $.10 per gallon ear-
marked for an environmental
trust fund.
7
Imposing a tax on all
21
29
21
25
4
.8
crude oil imported into
the U.S.
20
Research/Strategy/Management
TABLE 9 (Con't)
NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY: OIL AND GAS POLICY ALTERNATIVES
(Ranked from Most Favored to Least Favored)
STRNG SMWHT SMWHT STRNG DON'T INTEN.
RANK
QUESTION
FAVOR
FAVOR
OPPOSE
OPPOSE
KNOW
8
Providing tax breaks to
17
33
17
29
3
.6
oil companies for the
exploration and develop-
ment of new oil and
natural gas wells.
9
Accelerating oil develop- 18
29
17
29
7
.6
ment in the wilderness
areas of Alaska's North
Slope.
10
Adding a federal gas tax 12
25
18
42
2
.3
of $.50 per gallon phased
in over several years and
earmarked for an environ-
mental trust fund.
11
Opening more off-shore
8
17
21
51
2
.2
areas along both coasts
to oil drilling, even if
this caused some
environmental damage.
12
Developing oil reserves
5
14
21
58
2
.1
on publicly owned
wilderness lands, even
if this caused some
environmental damage.
21
Research/Strategy/Management
TABLE 10
NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY: OTHER POLICY ALTERNATIVES
(Ranked from Most Favored to Least Favored)
STRNG SMWHT SMWHT STRNG DON'T INTEN.
RANK
QUESTION
FAVOR
FAVOR
OPPOSE
OPPOSE
KNOW
1
Requiring new homes
68
23
4
4
1
17.0
financed by FHA & VA
mortgages to meet
federal standards for
energy efficiency.
2
Re-establishing feder-
54
32
7
6
2
9.0
al tax credits for
consumers who use re-
newable energy sources
such as solar or wind
power.
3
Requiring federal and
51
35
6
5
3
10.2
state regulators to
provide incentives to
utilities for investing
in energy efficiency
improvements in their
customers homes and
buildings.
4
Expanding federal
47
33
8
9
3
5.2
spending on mass public
transportation systems
such as buses and
subways.
5
Providing federal funds
43
31
11
13
2
3.3
to encourage car
pooling.
6
Building more
12
20
20
42
5
.3
nuclear power plants in
the United States.
7
Increasing use of coal
7
17
29
45
2
.2
even if this caused
some environmental
damage.
22
Research/Strategy/Management
SUMMARY
With anxiety fueled by a recession at home and the threat of war
abroad, Americans end the first year of the new decade on a
pessimistic note. The confrontation with Iraq over the future of
Kuwait and the perception that this confrontation is a response to
a threatened foreign oil supply, help produce the concern that the
U.S. is, even now, entering a period of energy crisis not unlike
the one experienced in the 1970's.
Along with that concern comes strong public opinion support for
steps that will save gasoline:
*
Federal fuel standards that require 40 mpg by the
year 2000;
*
The development of alternative fuels from grains;
*
Tax rebates on new cars that exceed the current
federal fuel standards.
Public opinion is equally as strong in support of steps that will
provide for our long-term energy needs without damaging the
environment:
*
Developing energy from renewable sources;
*
Avoiding drilling in wilderness areas and off-shore
sites where environmental damage is likely;
*
Placing more emphasis on energy efficiency -- saving
what we have -- rather than increasing exploration
and development.
Public opinion will not dictate policy -- nor should it. But
public support or opposition to possible alternative policy choices
must be considered as part of the process by planners and decision-
makers crafting a national energy policy.
23
K
NATIONAL STUDENT SURVEY ON THE PERSIAN GULF CRISIS
(7-12 Grades)
Prepared for:
CITIZENS FOR A FREE KUWAIT
January 1991
The Wirthlin Group
#5362-12
599-110-008
JAN 9 '91 14:59
703 833 3911 FAGE.001
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
1.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1
II.
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY
4
A. Research Design
4
B. Methodology
4
III.
PRESENTATION OF FINDINGS
6
A. General Mood
6
B. Attitudes Toward Personalities and Countries Involved in the Persian
Gulf Crisis
10
C. Support for President Bush and U.S. Policy
14
D. Attitudes Toward the Conflict
18
.Justification for U.S. Military Action in the Persian Gulf
18
2.Attitudes Toward Specific Courses of Action in the Persian
Gulf
21
3. Friends or Relatives in the Persian Gulf
35
E. Knowledge of the Persian Gulf Area
37
IV. Interview Schedule
39
APPENDIX MATERIAL
Appendix A: Crosstabulations and Computer Output
National Student Survey
0
January 1991
on the Persian Gulf Crisis
I.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Wirthlin Group is pleased to present the results of the National Student
Survey on the Persian Gulf Crisis to Citizens for a Free Kuwait. The study
contains the results of a mail survey of one thousand one hundred and thirteen
(1,113) junior and senior high school students (grades 7-12) living in the
continental United States. Survey responses were gathered December 7-11,
1990. Where appropriate, responses to this study are compared to responses
given by the adult general public in the CFK National Tracking Study conducted
between December 2-9, 1990.
KEY FINDINGS
The following results reflect the key findings of the study:
Despite all of the recent developments surrounding the Persian Gulf crisis,
when asked about the biggest problems facing the United States today,
American adolescent school children express greatest concern about
problems closer to home:
-- Social problems (41%), especially drugs (21%) and the environment
(9%), are the most frequently mentioned concerns of American
adolescents in the 7th through 12th grades.
-- About a quarter (23%) of all the students surveyed, mention something
pertaining to the Persian Gulf.
Awareness of the conflict, however, is quite high. Forty-one percent (41%)
of all students interviewed say they talk to their friends or family about the
situation in the Persian Gulf three or more times a week. More than half
(54%) talk about it two or more times a week.
Not surprisingly, nearly every adolescent school child (99%) can identify
and rate George Bush. President Bush received a high score of 66 on
the likability scale (on a range of 0 - - 100). Similarly, 100% of adults
identified George Bush and gave him nearly the same average rating of
65.
National Student Survey
1
January 1991
on the Persian Gulf Crisis
JAN 9 '91 14:59
703 893 3311 PAGE.003
The majority of adolescents surveyed (95%) also know who Saddam
Hussein is. By contrast, they give him an extremely low score of 5.
American adolescent school children have very similar opinions to their
adult counter parts in supporting President Bush for his actions in the
Persian Gulf crisis. A majority of American adolescent school children
(64%) approve of the President's handling of the situation in the Persian
Gulf. Adult Americans also generally approve (65%) of his handling of the
Persian guif crisis. However, nearly half of these adults (30%) strongly
approve, while only 19% of adolescents strongly approve.
Most adolescents grade President Bush a "B" (33%) or "C" (34%) for the
way he has handled the Gulf Crisis. Only 10% give him a grade of "A".
(7%). Nearly a quarter give the President a "D" (16%) or failing grade of "F"
Adolescent school children cite the "rescue of American citizens being
held hostage in Kuwait" (69% Agree) and "stopping a brutal dictator who
threatens world peace and stability" (61% Agree) at the strongest reasons
justifying the United States going to war.
When asked to choose the one MOST important reason that justifies the
United States going to war, again, the most frequently mentioned reasons
are "to stop a brutal dictator who threatens world peace and stability"
(33%) and "to rescue American citizens being held hostage in Kuwait"
(29%). Sixteen percent (16%) say there is "never" a good reason to go
to war.
Sixty-five percent (65%) of American adolescent school children and 66%
of adult Americans agree "given everything that has happened, the U.S.
is justified in launching an attack against Iraq to drive them out of Kuwait."
Two thirds of adolescent school children (66%) DISAGREE that
withholding important supplies from Iraq is enough to pressure Iraq into
leaving Kuwait.
American adolescents DISAGREE strongly (90%) that Iraq should be
allowed to continue to occupy Kuwait and just as strongly AGREE (90%)
the chemical and nuclear war machine of Iraq must be destroyed.
National Student Survey
2
on the Persian Gulf Crisis
January 1991
JAN 3 ' 31 15:00
703 893 3811 PAGE 304
Moreover, while the majority (71%) DISAGREE the United States does not
have the commitment to "stick with it" if the situation with Iraq turns into
a long, drawn out war, more than half of all adolescents surveyed (57%)
fear that if war breaks out in the Persian Gulf, it will turn out to be another
war like Vietnam.
While 95% of the students could identify correctly the United States on a
map, not quite two-thirds (59%) could identify France and even fewer
could identify Great Britain (56%). Over half of all the adolescents
surveyed (59%) know where Saudi Arabia is located and half (50%) can
identify Iraq on the map. Kuwait (45%) and Israel (43%) are somewhat
more difficult for adolescents to identify.
National Student Survey
3
January 1991
on the Persian Gulf Crisis
JAN 9 '91 15:00
703 893 3911 PAGE 005
II.
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY
A. Research Design
This study contains the results of a mail survey of one thousand one hundred
and thirteen (1,113) junior and senior high school students (grades 7-12)
living in the continental United States. Survey responses were gathered
between December 7-11, 1990. Where appropriate, responses to this study
are compared to responses given by the adult general public in the national
tracking study conducted between December 2-9, 1990.
Although the most sophisticated procedures have been used to collect and
analyze the information presented here, it must be remembered that surveys
are not predictions. They are designed to measure public opinion within
identifiable limits of accuracy at specific points in time. This survey is in no
way a prediction of opinion or action at any future point in time.
Account Executive and principal investigator for this study is Dee Allsop, Vice
President, Communications and Marketing Team. Assisting in all phases of
research and analysis was Faith Kleinburd, who served as Senior Project
Director.
B. Methodology
The Wirthlin Group mailed a total of one thousand two hundred (1,200)
surveys to a sample of school children (200 per grade; grades 7-12). The
sample of students was selected from a total of eight (8) school districts,
one in each of the eight (8) geopolitical regions across the United States.
Each school received 150 questionnaires, 25 for each grade level.
Before selecting the school districts, The Wirthlin Group looked at household
income and population density by Area of Dominant Influence (ADI) in each
of the eight geopolitical regions. For each region, an ADI was chosen which
most closely represented that region's median household income and
population density. After selecting eight ADI's to sample from, The Wirthlin
Group contacted Market Data Retrieval, Inc. for the names and addresses of
the School District Superintendents in each of the ADI's. Based on enrollment
size, grade level, and expenditures per student, two (2) or three (3) of the
most representative school districts per ADI were chosen. Superintendents
were then contacted by telephone and requested to participate in the study.
National Student Survey
4
January 1991
on the Persian Gulf Crisis
JAN 9 '91 15:01
703 893 3811 PAGE.006
In order to increase the likelihood of participation, the Wirthlin Group
promised each school district a summary of results and a contribution of
$1000. Detailed instructions were mailed to each participating school along
with the surveys and a postage paid return package.
To ensure an adequate number of responses were received in each region
and grade, quotas were established. The data was later weighted by region
to accurately reflect the true proportion of households located there.
Forty-seven (47%) of the interviews were among male students and 50%
were among female students. Three percent (3%) did not indicate their sex.
All interviews were edited, coded and data entered by The Wirthlin Group-
trained personnel from our facility in Orem, Utah.
The survey contained approximately 31 closed-ended questions and one (1)
open-ended question. An interview schedule with complete topline results is
included in Appendix A.
Statistical analysis and cross-tabulations were produced by the firm's own
software and computer system.
National Student Survey
5
on the Persian Gulf Crisis
January 1991
JAN 9 '91 15:01
703 893 3811 PAGE.007
III.
PRESENTATION OF FINDINGS
A. General Mood
The situation in the Persian Gulf is clearly a problem of concern to a
significant number of adolescent school children and often a topic of
conversation among friends and family. Despite all of the recent
developments surrounding the Persian Gulf crisis, however, when asked
about the biggest problems in the United States today, American adolescent
school children are more concerned about problems closer to home.
(Figure 1)
Social problems (41%), especially drugs (21%) and the environment (9%),
are the most frequently mentioned concerns of American adolescents in
the 7th through 12th grades.
Nearly a quarter (23%) of all the students surveyed, however, mention
something pertaining to the Persian Gulf when asked to identify the
biggest problem in the United States today.
Foreign Policy/Peace is cited by nearly a third (31%) of all adolescent
school children as the biggest problem in the United States.
Forty-one percent (41%) of all students interviewed say they talk to their
friends or family about the situation in the Persian Gulf three or more
times a week. More than half (54%) talk about it two or more times a
week.
In contrast to adolescents, the adult general public views the recent events
surrounding the Persian Gulf to be of much greater concern than social
problems.
In a national study of adults conducted during approximately the same
time period (Dec 2-9), the adult general public most frequently mentions
Foreign Policy/Peace related problems (37%) as the most important
problem facing the United States today. Nearly one third (28%) believe
the Persian Gulf Situation is the most important problem. Only one in five
(19%) adult Americans believe a social problem is the most important
problem. (Figure 1)
National Student Survey
6
January 1991
on the Persian Gulf Crisis
JAN 9 '91 15:02
703 893 3811 PAGE. 008
When asked to identify their specific concerns regarding the Persian Gulf
crisis, adolescent school children's greatest concern is that the U.S. will go
to war.
Nearly half (47%) of all students say this possibility is what concerns
them most when they read or hear the news about the Persian Gulf
crisis.
This (43%). concern is higher among female students (50%) than male students
Male students (23%), on the other hand, are more likely than female
students (7%) to be most concerned about the possibility that "prices for
gas and other necessary items in the United States will become more
expensive." This concern in male students increases with age.
In comparison to other regions in the United States, adolescent students
living in the Mid-Atlantic (57%) and New England (53%) regions are more
concerned about the U.S. going to war.
Another significant concern (25%) of adolescent school children is that a
family Gulf. member or someone they know may be called to fight in the Persian
Again, female students are more concerned (31%) about this possibility
than are male students (19%).
Notably, among all adolescent students interviewed, the concern that "prices
for gas and other necessary items in the U.S. will become more expensive"
receives more mentions (15%) than the concern for "the safety of American
citizens being held hostage in Iraq" (7%). (Figure 2)
National Student Survey
on the Persian Gulf Crisis
8
January 1991
JAN 9 '91 15:03
703 833 3811 PAGE. 009
B. Attitudes Crisis Toward Personalities and Countries Involved in the Persian Gulf
Consistent with American adult attitudes, American adolescent school children
express very negative opinions about Iraq and Saddam Hussein. Both
Saddam Hussein and his country receive extremely low favorability ratings
with adolescents in grades 7 through 12.
The majority of adolescents surveyed (95%) know who Saddam Hussein is,
and, on average, give him an extremely low score of 5 on a scale from 0 to
100, where 0 means they don't like that person or country at all and 100
means they really like that person or country a lot. This score puts him in
last place in terms of overall favorability. (Figure 3)
Senior high school students (grades 11 and 12) are especially negative
towards Saddam Hussein and in average rate him a 4. This compares
with grades 7/8 (6) and 9/10 (6).
In addition, white students (5) are more negative toward Saddam Hussein
than students of other ethnic or racial origins (7).
Female students tend to rate Saddam Hussein lower in average (5) than
male students (6).
In a similar question, adult Americans in average rated Saddam Hussein
a score of 7 on a scale of 0 to 100, where 0 means not at all favorable
and 100 means extremely favorable.
In contrast, 99% of adolescent school children could identify George Bush.
He received a high average score of 66 on the likability scale. Similarly,
100% of adults during the Dec. 2-9 national tracking study identified George
Bush and gave him nearly the same average rating of 65.
Mikail Gorbachev (51) receives a somewhat lower score from adolescent
school children. This score is also lower than the average score given to
Gorbachev (59) by adults.
Consistent with their rating of Saddam Hussein, male adolescent school
children rate Bush (68) and Gorbachev (56) higher than do female
adolescents (Bush 65, Gorbachev 46).
National Student Survey
on the Persian Gulf Crisis
10
January 1991
JAN 9 '91 15:03
703 893 3811 PAGE . 010
Senior high school students (grades 11 and 12) rate Bush (70) and
Gorbachev (56) higher than do students in grades 7/8 (Bush 67,
Gorbachev 47) or grades 9/10 (Bush 62, Gorbachev 50).
White students rate Bush (70) and Gorbachev (55) higher than do
students of other racial or ethnic origins (Bush 58, Gorbachev (42).
Almost all adolescent school children surveyed feel they know enough about
Iraq to rate it. Their ratings are extremely low -- 13 on a scale from 0 to 100,
where 0 means don't like at all and 100 means really like a lot. Again, this
likability score is the lowest received by any of the countries listed. Similarly,
adults give Iraq the same average rating on favorability (13). (Figure 3)
Among adolescents, the United States receives the highest favorability
score, with an average of 92. Great Britain (59), Japan (50), and the
Soviet Union (49) receive an average or higher score.
In contrast to the ratings given Saddam Hussein, female adolescent
school children rate Iraq higher (14) than do male students (11). This is
especially true among students in the 11th and 12th grades (male 7,
female 13).
Consistent with ratings of Saddam Hussein, white students in average rate
Iraq lower (12) than do students of other racial or ethnic origins (13).
However, white students rate all other countries consistently higher than
do students of other racial or ethnic origins.
Between regions, Iraq is most likely to receive the highest average likability
score from students in New England (17), and the Pacific states (15),
while the lowest ratings are given by students surveyed from the Great
Lakes and Farm Belt regions (10).
Ninety percent (90%) of school adolescents can rate Kuwait, and give it an
average likability score of 43. Israel is identified by 86% of all students
surveyed and receives a similar average score of 44.
Adult Americans rate countries in the Persian Gulf very closely to adolescents
giving the exact same rating to Iraq (13) and a very similar rating Kuwait (44),
but give a higher rating to Israel (53).
National Student Survey
11
January 1991
on the Persian Gulf Crisis
JAN 9 '91 15:04
703 893 3811 PAGE.011
Regionally, Kuwait receives the highest ratings from school children in the
Middle Atlantic states (56). No other region gives Kuwait a score higher
than 44.
Consistent with the ratings of Saddam Hussein, male adolescents (45),
whites (46), and younger students (grades 7-8, 45) tend to rate Kuwait
higher in average than do female adolescents (41), older students (grades
9-10, 41; grades 11-12, 42), and students of other racial or ethnic origin
(35).
Importantly, students with a higher level of awareness concerning the Persian
Gulf situation (evidenced through awareness of the countries in the Persian
Gulf and how often adolescents talk about the situation there) tend to rate
Kuwait higher than do those students who are not very knowledgeable of the
Persian Gulf area or rarely talk about it in conversations with friends or family.
Adolescents who can identify Kuwait on a map (54) and who talk about
the Persian Gulf situation three or more times a week (51) rate Kuwait
higher than those who cannot identify Kuwait on a map (33) and who talk
about the situation less frequently (1-2 times a week, 41; hardly or never,
34).
Students who can identify Kuwait on a map are also more likely to rate
all other countries and personalities higher than those who cannot identify
Kuwait. The one exception to this trend is Iraq; which receives a lower
rating (11) than given by those who cannot identify Kuwait (14).
Moreover, adolescent school children who have friends or relatives in the
Persian Gulf are much more likely to give Kuwait a higher likability rating
(45) than those who do not have friends or relatives there (40).
National Student Survey
13
on the Persian Gulf Crisis
January 1991
JAN 3 '91 15:05
703 893 3811 PAGE 012
C. Support for President Bush and U.S. Policy
A majority of American adolescent school children (64%) approve of the
President's handling of the situation in the Persian Gulf.
American adolescent school children have very similar opinions to their adult
counter parts in supporting President Bush for his actions in the Persian Gulf
crisis. Adult Americans surveyed Dec. 2-9 also generally approve (65%) of
his handling of the Persian gulf crisis. However, nearly half of these adults
(30%) strongly approve, while only 19% of adolescents strongly approve.
(Figure 4)
Approval of Bush's actions in the Persian Gulf is highest among male
adolescents (67%) and senior high school students (grades 11-12) (73%).
This compares with 61% of female students, 61% of 7th and 8th graders
and 58% of students in the 9th and 10th grades. Male students in the
11th and 12th grades are especially favorable towards Bush (78%)
compared with female 11th and 12th graders (69%).
White students (67%) more than other ethnic or racial origins (56%), and
students residing in the Middle Atlantic (77%) and Outer South (68%)
regions are also more supportive of the President's actions in the Persian
Gulf.
Students residing in the Mountain (50%), Pacific (54%) and New England
(55%) regions are somewhat less supportive of President Bush's handling
of the Persian Gulf crisis.
Students who are highly supportive of President Bush's handling of the
situation in the Persian Gulf also disagree with the statement that if war
breaks out in the Persian Gulf it will turn in another war like Vietnam (71%
approve) and agree the U.N. should continue to pressure Iraq to withdraw
from Kuwait no matter how long it takes or how much it costs in soldiers
and supplies (71% approve).
National Student Survey
14
on the Persian Gulf Crisis
January 1991
JAN 9 '91 15:05
703 893 3811 PAGE. 013
In addition, students who are aware of the Persian Gulf area and what is
happening there are more highly supportive of President Bush's actions in the
Persian Gulf.
Seventy percent (70%) of adolescent school children who can identify
Kuwait on the map and 69% of those who talk about the situation in the
Persian Gulf three or more times a week approve of President Bush's
handling of the Persian Gulf situation.
Students were also asked to grade the President on the way he is handling
the situation in the Persian Gulf. The majority (67%) of adolescent school
children give him a grade of "B", good (33%) or "C", satisfactory (34%). Only
10% give him a grade of "A" or excellent. Nearly a quarter (23%) give the
President a poor ("D", 16%) or failing grade ("F" ,7%). (Figure 5)
Consistent with the approval ratings above, male students (15%) are much
more likely than female students (5%) to give Bush a grade of "A". Eleventh
and twelfth grade students (14%) are also more likely to give Bush an "A"
than are students in grades 9/10 (6%) or 7/8 (9%).
Twenty-four percent (24%) of males in the 11th and 12th grades give
Bush a grade of "A," while only 6% of females in the 11th and 12th grades
give him an "A".
White students (12%) more than other racial or ethnic origins (6%) also
give the President a grade of "A".
Again, students residing in the Middle Atlantic (19%) and Outer South
(12%) regions are more supportive of the President and are most likely
to give the President a grade of "A" or excellent than are students residing
in other regions.
National Student Survey
16
January 1991
on the Persian Gulf Crisis
JAN 9 '91 15:06
703 893 3811 PAGE. 014
D. Attitudes Toward the Conflict
1. Justification for U.S. Military Action in the Persian Gulf
According to adolescent school children, the strongest reasons which
justify the United States going to war are "to rescue American citizens
being held hostage in Kuwait" (69%) and "to stop a brutal dictator who
threatens world peace and stability" (61%). (Figure 6)
When asked to choose the one MOST important reason that justifies the
United States going to war, again, the most frequently mentioned reasons
are "to stop a brutal dictator who threatens world peace and stability"
(33%) and "to rescue American citizens being held hostage in Kuwait"
(29%). (Figure 7)
Adolescent school children are less supportive, however, of going to war
to restore Kuwait's legitimate government to power (26%) or to punish
Iraq for invading Kuwait (20%). And only a few (3%) would say either
reason is the most important reason.
Students differ demographically, however, on which of these two reasons
receive more support. In general, male students, and senior high school
students are more likely to be supportive of military action in the Persian
Gulf. Similarly, female students (36%) are generally less supportive of
military action and more likely than male students (20%) to say there is
never a good reason to go to war.
Female and younger students are most likely to think that the rescue of
American citizens being held as hostage is just cause for the United
States going to war, while male and older students are more likely to think
stopping a brutal dictator who threatens peace and stability is a just
cause for war.
Two-thirds (65%) of male adolescent school children believe that
stopping a brutal dictator who threatens world peace is a good reason
to go to war. This compares with 58% of female adolescent school
children.
National Student Survey
18
January 1991
on the Persian Gulf Crisis
JAN 9 '91 15:07
703 893 3811 PAGE 015
Likewise, students in the 11th and 12th grades (67%) are more likely
than younger students (grades 9/10, 58%; grades 7/8, 60%) to think
this same reason (stopping a brutal dictator...) is just cause for war.
Senior high school students (grades 11-12) are less likely (63%) then
students in grades 7-8 (73%) or grades 9-10 (71%) to think rescuing
American citizens being held as hostages is justification for the U.S.
going to war.
Younger students (33% grade 7/8) and especially younger females
(39%), are also more likely to say there is never a good reason to go
to war.
A significant number of adolescent school children, however, (45%) feel
protecting the world's oil supply justifies the United States going to war.
Again, male adolescents are much more likely (50%) than female students
(40%) to choose this particular reason.
A third (29%) of all school children surveyed say there is never a good
reason to go to war. Sixteen percent (16%) say this is the most important
reason.
2. Attitudes Toward Specific Courses of Action in the Persian Gulf
Adolescent school children are more convinced than their adult counter
parts that the situation in the Persian Gulf will be resolved militarily and
believe resolution of the conflict will be shorter rather than longer.
Among those who expressed an opinion, adolescent school children
overwhelmingly believe that the conflict in the Persian Gulf will be
solved by war (83%). This compares with less than two-thirds (60%)
of adult Americans who expressed an opinion. (Figure 8)
National Student Survey
21
on the Persian Gulf Crisis
January 1991
JAN 9 '91 15:07
703 893 3811 PAGE . 016
More than half of all adolescent school children (59%) also believe it
will take 6 months or less before Iraq withdraws its troops from Kuwait
and the legitimate government is returned to power. Thirty-seven
percent (37%) were unsure how long it would take. Only 3% felt Iraq
would never get out of Kuwait. (Figure 9)
The belief that the Persian Gulf situation will be resolved through military
conflict increases with grade level.
Seventy eight percent (78%) of Junior high school students (grades
7-8) say the conflict will be resolved through war compared with 84%
of senior high school students.
Adolescents, similar to the adult general public, appear to be supportive
of a military resolution to the Persian Gulf conflict. Consistent with earlier
discussion of results, male adolescent students and older students are
most supportive of military action.
Sixty-six percent (66%) of adolescent school children agree that if Iraq
does not leave Kuwait by the deadline imposed by the United Nations,
the U.S. should use military force against Iraq. In a similar question,
75% of adult Americans favor the U.N. resolution which authorizes the
use of military force to drive Iraq out of Kuwait. (Figure 10)
Three quarters (76%) of male students, and especially those in
grades 11-12 (83%), agree with the aforementioned statement. This
compares with 55% of female students in total and 60% of female
students in grades 11 and 12.
Agreement with this statement increases with grade level (7/8
61%. 9/10 - 65%. 11/12 - 71%).
Seventy-five percent (75%) of students who approve of the way
the President is handling the situation in the Persian Gulf also
agree with the above statement.
National Student Survey
23
January 1991
on the Persian Gulf Crisis
JAN 3 '91 15:08
703 893 3811 PAGE.017
Sixty-five percent (65%) of American adolescent school children and
66% of adult Americans agree that given everything that has
happened, the U.S. is justified in launching an attack against Iraq to
drive them out of Kuwait. Results for this statement are
demographically similar to those mentioned above. (Figure 11)
Two thirds of adolescent school children (66%) disagree that
withholding important supplies from Iraq is enough to pressure Iraq
into leaving Kuwait. (Figure 12)
In addition, American adolescents disagree strongly (90%) that Iraq
should be allowed to continue to occupy Kuwait and just as strongly
agree (90%) that the chemical and nuclear war machine of Iraq must
be destroyed. (Figures 13 and 14)
However, despite these attitudes towards the use of military force,
adolescents, like the adult general public, are afraid of the costs in both
soldiers and supplies.
Two-thirds (66%) of adolescent school children feel that the death of
American soldiers in a fight with Iraq is too high a price to pay in this
Persian Gulf conflict. This is especially true among those adolescents
with a friend or relative who has been sent to the Persian Guif as a
soldier (71%). Similarly, 69% of the adult general public agree with
this statement. (Figure 15)
Fifty percent (50%) of adolescents disagree that the United Nations
must continue to pressure Iraq to withdraw from Kuwait no matter how
long it takes or how much it costs in soldiers and supplies.
(Figure 16)
Moreover, while the majority (71%) disagree that the United States
does not have the commitment to "stick with it" if the situation with Iraq
turns into a long, drawn out war; more than half of all adolescents
surveyed (57%) fear that if war breaks out in the Persian Gulf, it will
turn out to be another war like Vietnam. (Figures 17 and 18)
National Student Survey
26
on the Persian Gulf Crisis
January 1991
JAN 9 '91 15:09
703 893 3311 PAGE.018
3. Friends or Relatives in the Persian Gulf
With the holiday season near, we often become more family oriented,
exhibiting more feelings of warmth and compassion toward our friends
and loved ones. The following highlights the opinions of those students
whose friends or family members are in the Persian Gulf and unable to
spend the holidays with them.
Half (51%) of adolescent school children have relatives or friends who
have gone to the Persian Gulf as soldiers. Forty-two percent (42%)
of the adult general public say they have a friend or relative who has
been sent. (Figure 19)
Among those students who have friends or relatives in the Persian
Gulf, 54% think the Persian Gulf situation will be solved by war. This
compares with only 43% of those without friends or relatives there and
48% of all adolescent school children surveyed.
Moreover, the vast majority of adolescent school children with friends
or relatives in the Persian Gulf agree (71%) that the death of American
soldiers is too high a price to pay. This compares with 66% of the
total adolescents surveyed and 62% of those without friends or
relatives in the gulf.
National Student Survey
35
January 1991
on the Persian Gulf Crisis
JAN 9 '9! 15:09
703 893 3811 PAGE.019
E. Knowledge of the Persian Gulf Area
American adolescent school children are fairly well acquainted with the
geographic locations of the countries involved in the Persian Gulf crisis.
Over half of all the adolescents surveyed (59%) know where Saudi Arabia is
located and half (50%) can identify Iraq on the map. Kuwait (45%) and Israel
(43%) are somewhat more difficult for adolescents to identify. (Figure 20)
In general, male adolescents, white students, students living in the Mid-
Atlantic and Mountain regions, and those who could also identify Kuwait on
the map are most knowledgeable about the location of Saudi Arabia, Iraq and
Israel.
Students who are most likely to identify Kuwait on the map are also males
(56%), white students (51%), students living in the Mid-Atlantic (72%) and
Mountain (59%) regions, and those who support President Bush's actions
in the Persian Gulf (49%), especially those who would give the President an
"A" (70%).
Not surprisingly, students who say they talk about the Persian Gulf crisis
three or more times a week (56%) are more likely than adolescents in general
(45%) to be able to identify Kuwait on a map.
In addition to the above mentioned countries in the Persian Gulf, students
were asked to identify the United States, France and Great Britain. Not
surprisingly, 95% of the students could identify the United States correctly
on the map. However, not quite two-thirds (59%) could identify France and
even fewer could identify Great Britain (56%).
With the exception of the United States, male adolescent school children
were much better at identifying the countries correctly than were their
female counterparts. (Figure 20)
National Student Survey
37
January 1991
on the Persian Gulf Crisis
January 9, 1991
THE CHIEF of STAFF
Poll
has seen
MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT
GOVERNOR SUNUNU
FROM:
ROGER AILES
SUBJECT:
NEW Y&R FOCUS GROUPS - GULF
I met with Susan Gianino on January 8th to listen to new focus
group material. Alex Kroll was present and felt I might persuade
you to set a meeting on their new research (new, since they met
with the President recently), with Secretary Cheney, General
Powell, General Scowcroft, as well as whoever might be writing
the President's remarks regarding the Gulf.
It was a short meeting, but the following are highlights - not
intended to be complete.
1.
They understand that public opinion research will not
influence the President's decisions.
I strongly made that point again.
2.
They (Y&R) believe the President must have public
support for a war and they believe that support does
not currently exist.
3.
Research (theirs) shows people know why we are in the
Gulf, but not why we need to fight.
4.
They tested the radio speech and found:
O
they don't believe at all that we are there for
"human rights" of smaller nations;
O
we are there for oil, but won't trade "blood for
oil" - although they believe we might be able to
link oil to freedom - "this may be a step toward
surrendering our political and economic freedom";
people respond positively when reminded:
-
Saddam started it
-
of all the steps taken by the President to
resolve this peacefully
-
we are showing restraint
-
the U.S. is not the aggressor.
5.
The people don't necessarily need more information, but
a bit more persuasion.
6.
People want "straight talk" on America's interest in
fighting.
Ideas:
1.
A last trip to the U.N. by the President (if he'll get
solid support).
2.
A vision speech on the New World Order that does not
include despots like Saddam.
DIVIDED PUBLIC FOCUSED ON GULF NEWS;
BRACED FOR BLOODY WAR
As the crisis in the Persian Gulf approaches its climax, the public remains riveted
Poll
to the story, with 59 percent of survey respondents saying they are following
developments very closely and 66 percent saying they have given a great deal of
thought to the question of using military force against Iraq, according to a new Times
Mirror survey released today.
CNN was the clear winner when the public was asked which TV network is doing
the best job of covering the crisis in the Gulf. The Cable News Network was cited by
30 percent of survey respondents, followed by ABC (18 percent), CBS (17 percent) and
NBC (13 percent).
Interest in Gulf news was far greater than in other stories receiving extensive
coverage in the past month, such as US economic conditions (36 percent following such
news very closely), the resignation of British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher (20
percent), the resignation of Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze (15 percent),
the Education Department's controversial ruling on minority scholarships (13 percent),
the Keating Five investigation (9 percent), the purchase of the giant entertainment
company MCA by Japanese interests (9 percent), and the resignation of William
Bennett as chairman of the Republican National Committee (6 percent).
The public gives the news media generally good grades for their coverage of the
crisis, with 31 percent rating overall coverage excellent, 47 percent good, 15 percent
only fair and 5 percent poor.
The press gets its best marks for providing up-to-date reports on Gulf developments
(27 percent rate this coverage excellent, 47 percent good). But 46 percent of the public
says the press has been only fair or poor in explaining the debate in Washington about
U.S. policy in the Gulf, and 50 percent give similar negative grades to press coverage
of how Americans feel about the crisis.
Eighty-two percent of those surveyed said they've been getting most of their Gulf
news from television, 40 percent said newspapers (some respondents gave multiple
answers), 15 percent radio, 4 percent magazines.
Sixty percent of respondents said news organizations are reporting the Gulf story
fairly, compared with 15 percent who said press coverage has been too critical and 16
percent who say the coverage has not been critical enough.
Forty-two percent of those surveyed said they had heard too little about the views
of Americans who oppose sending U.S. forces to the Gulf.
1
If combat erupts, 57 percent say press pools should be allowed to accompany
troops to battle zones, while 34 percent say press access should be restricted, as it was
in the 1983 deployment in Grenada.
Twenty-one percent believe the press has too much influence on President Bush's
Persian Gulf policy, 18 percent say too little, and 44 percent say the right amount.
So preoccupied is the public with the Gulf story that only 10 percent of those
surveyed could correctly identify new British Prime Minister John Major, and only 27
percent could name any of the Keating Five senators currently under investigation for
misconduct in the savings-and-loan scandal. However, this is up from the 17% who
could identify any of the five senators in May 1990.
As the January 15 diplomatic deadline approaches for the Iraqi withdrawal from
Kuwait, most Americans expect a quick but grim war in the Persian Gulf.
By a 51-42 majority, survey respondents said they favor the immediate use of force
against Saddam Hussein if he fails to withdraw his armies from Kuwait by the deadline
day.
This slim majority has coalesced even though 77 percent also expect the Iraqi
leader to respond with chemical weapons on the battlefield, 65 percent say there is a
good chance Middle East terrorists will kill civilians here in the United States, and 47
percent say they have family members, neighbors or friends in military service in the
Persian Gulf.
Asked what they consider the single best reason for using military force against
Iraq, 38 percent of respondents said deterring aggression was the primary justification,
while 17 percent said removing Saddam Hussein from power was the best reason for
resorting to force.
Other reasons offered by the public included restoring the government of Kuwait
(8 percent), protecting the oil supply (6 percent), asserting American authority (4
percent), standing by our allies (4 percent), removing the Iraqi nuclear threat (3
percent), making the Middle East stable (2 percent), protecting Saudi Arabia (1
percent), protecting Israel (1 percent), and removing the threat of Iraqi chemical and
biological weapons (1 percent).
Fifty-seven percent of those surveyed said they expected the war to be a quick one,
while 30 percent said it would be a long war. Eighty-six percent of respondents said
they expect many civilian casualties, and only 9 percent said war casualties would be
mainly military.
The public's ambivalence about going to war with Iraq appears to have less to do
with a fear of these wartime horrors than with a conviction among many Americans
that economic sanctions imposed by the United Nations against Iraq ought to be given
more time to work before Iraq is attacked militarily.
2
Although fifty-one percent favor immediate military action if Iraq has not withdrawn
from Kuwait by January 15, 42 percent think the sanctions should be given more time.
And, among those favoring sanctions, more than half support eventual military
action if the sanctions prove ineffective.
In all, 75 percent of Americans now say they will support military action against
Iraq, later if not sooner.
Fifty-nine percent of the public currently approves of the way President Bush is
handling his job, while 24 percent disapprove.
# # #
3
The Wirthlin Group
MEMORANDUM
TO:
ED RODGERS
THE CHIEF of STAFF
FROM:
NEIL NEWHOUSE
THE WIRTHLIN GROUP
has seen
SUBJECT:
BUSH APPROVAL/RE-ELECT SCORES
DATE:
DECEMBER 31, 1990
As I mentioned the other day, we had just completed a national survey on which
we added a couple of questions for our own general interest regarding the
President and his current standing.
I have enclosed the crosstabs from the key questions, and wanted to draw your
attention to a few "highlights":
O
The mood of the country continues to be very pessimistic, with 64%
saying "wrong track." Of great significance is the slowly increasing
pessimism of 18-24 year olds, a traditionally GOP-oriented and
optimistic group. In this survey (and confirmed independently in
our Kuwait tracking), they are overwhelmingly negative - -- 26% right
direction, 69% wrong track.
(One may hypothesize that the pessimism among these Americans is
being driven by the Persian Gulf crisis and concern for their
friends/themselves.)
o
Although Americans are clearly focused on the Persian Gulf, more
than one-quarter cite pocketbook issues as most important to them
personally. Specifically, the economy is mentioned by 14% of
respondents, surpassed only by those who cite the Middle East (24%).
Interestingly, concern over the federal deficit, which surged just
prior to the election, has now subsided (4%), as has the drugs issue,
now mentioned by just 5% of Americans.
o
The President has an overall approval rating of 63%-30%, with 27%
strongly approving of the job he's doing. Generally, the strong
approval score is the single best indicator of hard-core committed
support for an incumbent, with most striving to be above 30% on this
measure.
There is a tremendous gender gap in Bush's approval scores, most
pronounced between younger men (80%-15%) and younger women (58%-
30%), and between Independent men (74%-21%) and Independent women
(49%-32%).
Regionally, Bush is weakest in the Northeast (58%-33%), and strongest
in the South (69%-26%). A plurality of Democrats in both the
Northeast and West disapprove of the job he's doing.
The Wirthlin Group
Rodgers Memorandum
December 31, 1990
Page two
0
Just 38% of voters say that Bush deserves re-election, while 46%
believe it is time for a new person to be elected. Obviously, these
are not strong scores, and they reflect a lack of public commitment
to Bush's Presidency. Although the President would certainly do much
better when pitted against a potential named opponent, these figures
reflect the lack of broad-based support.
Similar to his approval ratings, there is a significant gender gap
on this question -- men favor his re-election (45%-38%), while women
want a change (32%-52%). It is also of concern that just 57% of
Republicans believe that Bush should be re-elected (27% say "new
person"), with younger GOPers and those living in the Midwest showing
the softest levels of support.
The importance of the "strong approval" score is reinforced by these
results: among those who strongly approve of the job Bush is doing,
79% believe he should be re-elected, while just 38% of those who
somewhat approve share the same sentiment.
0
Cuomo leads the list of potential Democratic contenders with 16% of
Americans picking him as the strongest Democratic Presidential
candidate to run against Bush. He is followed by Bentsen (11%),
Jackson (10%), Gephardt (8%), and Nunn (7%).
Among Democrats, Cuomo extends his lead to 20%, with Jackson
receiving 10%, and Bentsen and Gephardt each at 8%.
0
Despite Bush's soft approval scores, he is still significantly more
popular than Congress, which receives a poor 35%-58% approval rating
from respondents.
0
By a surprisingly close 49%-44% margin, Americans favor minority
scholarships, with men, older Americans, Republicans, and those in
the South and Midwest most likely to oppose such set-asides.
In fact, 31% of Americans are so strong in opposition to scholarships
for minority students that they believe that colleges should be
prohibited from setting up such scholarships.
0
More than half of Americans believe the country is already in a
recession, while another one-third believe we are about to enter one.
Ed, all in all, while the Persian Gulf will dramatically effect our future
polling and the President's popularity/re-election support, these figures
indicate that his overall approval is more reflective of the international crisis
than it is the current domestic economic situation. For the short-term, that's
actually good news because an increased focus on domestic problems would probably
further soften our support.
If you have any questions on this, please give me a call at 703-556-0001.
IRAQ: PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS AND ATTITUDES
t polling
Basic Public Perceptions
Basic public support for a U.S. military deterrence in the Persian Gulf remains
high.
Two national surveys done the second weekend of December found the
same 63 percent majority supporting the decision to send troops to the
Persian Gulf area. (RNC and NBC News/Wall Street Journal surveys)
Only 10 percent think we now should pull out of the Persian Gulf.
There has been some weakening in the public's basic support since the
announcement of changing to an offensive capability. Prior to the
announcement, basic support for U.S. military forces in the Persian Gulf had
been 72 percent. However, there has been no increase in those wanting to pull
out; they have stayed around 10 percent since early October.
In the RNC national survey, a 64 percent majority approve of the way President
Bush is handling the Iraq situation compared to 34 percent who disapprove.
(The NBC News/Wall Street Journal found almost the same approval level for
the President - 63 percent.) The public's perceptions of the President on Iraq
have varied by four time periods:
In August and September, the President averaged 76 percent approval
of his handling of the Iraq situation.
From October thru the November elections, the President averaged a
lower 63 percent approval on Iraq.
The President's approval dropped to its lowest point during the three
weeks following his November 8th announcement of changing to an
offensive capability: he averaged 54 percent approval.
Since the November 30th announcement of Secretary of State Baker's
possible meeting with Hussein, the President's public approval increased
to an average 61 percent.
A 62 percent majority think the President's policies toward Iraq so far have
been "about right" rather than too tough or not tough enough.
IRAQ: PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS AND ATTITUDES
1
Projected Support for Military Action
The public is more inclined to support military action than a softening of current
policies. However, a majority favors a middle course.
When given three options on what to do now, more voters favor "taking
a stronger stand even if it means attacking Iraq" (30 percent) than favor
"pulling out of Saudi Arabia" (10 percent). Most voters (53 percent)
favor the middle choice: "keep our military forces in Saudi Arabia, but
try to avoid a shooting war."
More voters think President Bush has "not been tough enough" on Iraq
(21 percent) than think he has "been too tough" (12 percent). Most
voters (62 percent) think his policies so far have been "about right."
Some public polls have recorded over 60 percent majorities in favor of using
military force against Iraq, but these results can be misleading.
These surprisingly high rates of support for military action occur on poll
questions using just "yes-no" alternatives which measure the hard line
inclination of the public over following a retreat course, but they do not
offer a middle alternative.
These particular poll questions do not mention the cost in casualties for
taking the military choice.
The RNC national survey estimates that 43 percent of the public would support
the use of military force after the January 15th deadline, and 46 percent would
oppose the use of force given their knowledge and perceptions, as of today.
The 43 to 46 percent estimate is based on three survey questions which
presented the options of a prolonged embargo and a negotiated
settlement as well as the military option and the withdrawal option. The
third question in the series raised the issue of American casualties by
stating that "some military experts have estimated that it might cost ten
thousand American lives to drive Iraq out of Kuwait."
Fifteen percent indicate support for military action but not at the cost of
10,000 lives in which case they would consider a military action "a
mistake."
Twenty percent favor the embargo or negotiation and would oppose
military force even if "the U.S. concluded the embargo will not work and
there was nothing it could agree to in a negotiation with Iraq."
Eleven percent would withdraw our troops after January 15th and "let
the Arab nations settle the problem."
IRAQ: PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS AND ATTITUDES
2
With this full scenario, the following groups are most supportive of taking
military action after January 15th: current approvers of the President
(57 percent), Republicans (56 percent), men (55 percent), and
Southerners (51 percent).
The groups least supportive of taking military action after January 15th
are: current disapprovers of the President (23 percent), Democrats (31
percent), women (32 percent), senior citizens (31 percent), and blacks
(23 percent).
The NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey also found the public evenly divided
on what the U.S. should do after January 15th. With a single, less involved
question, that did not raise the cost in lives of the military option, they reported
that 46 percent supported military action to force Iraq out of Kuwait compared
to 44 percent who thought the U.S. should wait for the economic sanctions to
achieve the same goal.
Use of Force: Reasons and Justifications
Rather than not having a reason acceptable to the public for the use of military
force against Iraq, the Administration actually has an overabundance of
acceptable rationales for using force.
Over 70 percent think the following are "good reasons" to use military
force: end Iraq's nuclear capability, force Iraq out of Kuwait, and
maintain the security and stability of the Persian Gulf region.
Over 60 percent think the following are "good reasons" to use military
force: destroy Iraq's chemical weapons and remove Hussein from
power.
Over 50 percent think the following are "good reasons" to use military
force: restore Kuwait's previous government and avoid a worldwide
recession by assuring Middle East oil supplies.
In addition to the above reasons or goals of a military action, there are several
situations which the public thinks would justify military action against Iraq if they
proved to be true:
"Iraq is moving chemical weapons to the border where our troops are
positioned." (62 percent say. this would justify using military force.)
"Iraq is planning to invade another Middle Eastern country whenever we
withdraw our troops from the Middle East." (59 percent say this would
justify using military force.)
IRAQ: PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS AND ATTITUDES
3
"Iraq is within a few months of having nuclear weapons." (59 percent
say this would justify using military force.)
Among these rationales and justifications, the one that is particularly strong is
the potential nuclear threat of Iraq. Eliminating Iraq's nuclear threat was not
only rated by the most people (78 percent) as a good reason to use military
force against Iraq, it also was rated as a "very good" reason by significantly
more people (46 percent) than for any of the other reasons.
Iraq's chemical weapon threat also is a strong motivator for public support. It
ranks second to the nuclear threat as a "very good" reason, and is the focus of
the most credible triggering situation as described above.
The public polls have consistently documented the public's very high
concern with Iraq's nuclear and chemical warfare capabilities.
Economic rationales or justifications have only moderate credibility with the
public.
"To avoid a worldwide recession by making sure Middle East oil flows
freely to the world" elicits a fairly close result as a rationale for military
force against Iraq: 54 percent "good reason" to 44 percent "poor
reason."
"We are on the brink of a worldwide economic depression because of
Iraq's threat to the oil supplies in the Middle East," even if true, is not
considered by a majority as a justification for using military force against
Iraq. Forty-four percent think it would be a justification, but 52 percent
think it would not be a justification.
Importance or "Wisdom" of Using Military Force
Senator Nunn has separated the "wisdom" of using force from the justification
of force. The survey tested four reasons as to why it may be "wise" as well as
justified to use force. Two of the four test very much in the affirmative. One,
not surprisingly, focuses on the nuclear threat issue; the other draws a parallel
to the appeasement of Adolph Hitler.
By 75 to 21 percent, the public agrees that "if he had nuclear weapons,
Saddam Hussein would not hesitate to use them against other countries
in the Middle East." Moreover, 55 percent "strongly agree" with this
statement.
By 70 to 28 percent, the public agrees that "if we don't stand up to
Hussein's aggression in the Middle East, he could grow to be as much a
threat to world peace as Adolph Hitler." Forty-seven percent "strongly
IRAQ: PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS AND ATTITUDES
4
agree" with this statement.
Surprisingly, another argument using the nuclear threat does not fair as well.
Only a moderate 55 to 34 percent majority agree that "there is a good chance
that Iraq will acquire nuclear weapons before the economic blockade convinces
Iraq to withdraw from Kuwait." A low 22 percent "strongly agree."
The argument with the lowest credibility of the four is, again, an economic self-
interest item. Only a small 49 to 45 percent plurality agree that "a severe
recession in the U.S. is likely to result if we do not force Iraq to withdraw from
Kuwait."
Perceptions of Why U.S. Troops Are In Saudi Arabia
There is little public agreement on why U.S. troops are in the Persian Gulf
region. Moreover, a disturbingly high proportion of people think U.S. troops are
there for economic reasons rather than for one of the reasons they think ought
to be the basis for their presence.
Read a list of six possible reasons, the most frequent choice the public
makes for why U.S. troops are in Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf is
"to protect the world's oil supply" - 33 percent.
A 54 percent majority choose one of the non-economic purposes, but
no single purpose is chosen by more than 20 percent: "force Iraq's
withdrawal from Kuwait" (18 percent), "overthrow Hussein" (10 percent),
"protect Saudi Arabia" (10 percent), "prevent Iraq from developing
nuclear weapons" (10 percent), and "free the hostages" (6 percent).
Negotiating With Iraq
A potentially important problem for the Administration's Iraq policy is the
significant level of public support for negotiating with Iraq. Forty-nine percent
think the U.S. and U.N. should negotiate with Iraq in the true sense of finding
what Iraq "would accept in return for withdrawing from Kuwait." Almost as
many (48 percent) think the U.S. and U.N. should not negotiate with Iraq.
Surprisingly high proportions of Republicans (43 percent), approvers of
the President (43 percent), men (40 percent), and Southerners (44
percent) support negotiating with Iraq.
IRAQ: PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS AND ATTITUDES
5
The NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey also found significant support for
negotiating with Iraq. In their survey, 51 percent supported making "some
concessions to Iraq on the control of disputed oil fields" if Iraq released all the
hostages and withdrew from Kuwait.
Congress
A majority of the public has more confidence in the President than in Congress
to handle the Iraq situation, but an even larger majority believes the President
needs prior approval of Congress to use military force against Iraq.
Fifty-four percent "trust" President Bush more to handle the Iraq
situation; 31 percent trust Congress more.
Sixty-one percent believe the President needs prior approval of
Congress to use military force in the Middle East; 35 percent believe the
President, "as Commander-in-Chief," has the authority to use military
force in the Middle East.
People who have more confidence in President Bush but, nevertheless, say he
needs prior approval from Congress offer three reasons to support their
position:
It is too big a decision for one man to make either in the sense that it is
too much power for one man or too much of a "burden" for one man.
It is written in the Constitution that way; it's "the law."
There will be greater public support for the decision if both make it.
Voters were asked which way they would want their Congressman to vote if the
President asked for authority to use military force against Iraq. Sixty percent
said they would want their Congressman to vote "for approval"; only 24 percent
said they would want him or her to vote "against approval."
IRAQ: PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS AND ATTITUDES
6
Polling
FUNDAMENTAL THEMES
THEME I. NEED FOR CLEAR MEANING
THEME II. THE NATURE OF THE ENEMY
THEME III. LEARNING FROM HISTORY
THEME IV. ISSUES OF CONFIDENCE AND CONTROL
-
THE IMAGE OF AMERICAN TROOPS
-
AMERICA'S VULNERABILITY
-
AMERICA'S POOR SELF-IMAGE
THEME V. WINNABILITY
THEME VI. TIME AS A WEAPON
THEME VII. LEADERSHIP AND WAR
CONCLUSIONS
CONCLUSIONS.
Conclusion I:
There is strong evidence that if President Bush had to initiate a major
military offensive, he would not have the overwhelming support of the
American people.
This reflects a crisis of confidence and conviction.
CONCLUSIONS (cont'd).
Crisis of Confidence:
Considering the U.S.'s recent history (most notably Vietnam), poor regard for the
military, prevailing self-consciousness about our "diminished position" in the world,
the overwhelming burden of domestic problems, and American's lack of
understanding and/or dissatisfaction with the expressed motives for "why we're
there"
these people have little confidence in the ability of the United States to
win (which means achieving worthwhile objectives as opposed to simply prevailing
militarily).
The graphic, horrific, appalling visual images of war that have permeated people's
mental landscape over the last decade have left strong "repellent" impression of war
on most people. People do not feel that they can sit and watch the horror again --
night after night. They are not confident in their own ability to cope with seeing the
realities of war
that they must watch if the U.S. goes to war again.
The Baby Boom generation has never seen the U.S. "win" a war. This fact coupled
with the urgency of unprecedented economic, political, and sociological challenges,
shatters people's confidence in American competence.
CONCLUSIONS (cont'd).
Crisis of Conviction:
If lives are to be lost, people must feel satisfied that they both understand and agree
with the goals, principles and objectives which define U.S. involvement.
Qualified endorsement may be the only support that Americans can muster given the
fundamental skepticism that has become endemic in America.
Without having an overriding sense of purpose, the everchanging, conflicting, and
often contradictory information, expert opinions, and pronouncements seriously
undermine sustained conviction. People need a "beacon" to clear the way.
CONCLUSIONS (cont'd).
To satisfy these people -- the purpose and meaning for U.S. involvement must make
a clear link between:
Causes
The facts, defining events, and
characteristics of the Gulf
situation.
Pragmatics
The real and anticipated
consequences of these
characteristics.
Principles
The serious implications of these
consequences.
CONCLUSIONS (cont'd).
Conclusion II:
The precise nature of the THREAT - to well-being, security and values -- has not
been communicated convincingly, clearly, or consistently.
To warrant a loss of lives, the threat must be perceived as real, close-in, and very
serious.
It is especially critical that people feel we have exhausted all viable alternatives
before initiating offensive military action.
There must be a logical, credible link made between the nature of the threat and the
need for a specific response.
CONCLUSIONS (cont'd).
Conclusion III:
People express widespread support "for the troops" in spite of confusion,
ambivalence, or even outright rejection of policy.
There is great empathy "for the troops" and a strong underlying sentiment that they
must not be abandoned "again." Perceptions of troop morale, conditions, and
competence have a profound and disproportionate influence on attitudes and beliefs
concerning advisable activities in the Gulf. The more "the boys" are perceived as
fragile, vulnerable, unprepared, or victimized, the less likely Americans will be to
support either "an offensive action" or a sustained military involvement.
CONCLUSIONS (cont'd).
CONCLUSION IV:
At the root of people's ("Baby Boomers") resistance to "war" is a powerful, underlying
aversion to and ambivalence about personal sacrifice.
-
"Me generation" legacy
-
Grown accustomed to immediate gratification, indulgence, and quick
fixes
-
Not used to major trade-offs and compromises ("want it all")
However, coming into a more mature phase in their lives is causing these "Baby
Boomers" to reconsider their values and priorities.
NATIONAL SURVEY RESULTS
PRESENTATION
December 20, 1990
National Direction: 1989-1990
Percentage
100
90
Right-direction Wrong-track
80
74
70
64
65
59
60
53
54
54
54
51
49
50
46
41
40
39
39
41
40
37
38
31
30
25
26
20
20
10
0
Jan 89
Apr 89
Oct 89
Mar 90
May 90
June 14, 90
June 29, 90
Oct 4-7, 90
Oct 13-14, 90
Oct 26-31, 90
Dec 7-12, 90
Source: RNC National Surveys
December 7-12
1 (Coldwater/MSI)
National Direction: 1972-1990
Percentage
100
90
Right Direction Wrong Track
80
74
75
74
74
71
71
70
60
58
57
53
53
54
52
53
50
49
48
50
41
46
43
43
40
39
37
39
89
45
34
35
40
32
83
30
20
19
8
19
20
6
15
10
0
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
Source: RNC National Surveys
October 26-31
(Coldwater/MSI)
2
Trend to Approval of President Bush's
Overall Job Performance
Summary: Public and Private Polls
Percentage
100
Announces Troop Doubling
House Budget Vote
Troops to Gulf
80
75
75
73
73
71
72
70
71
69
68
68
69
69
64
65 65
65
63 63
61
60
60
56
56
56
56
51
Announces Baker Visit
Breaks "No Tax" Pledge
40
36 37
33
32
28 28
28
28
24
22
19
20
19
19
20
21
20
18
18
19
16
17
15
15
16
17
17
17
18
11
17
17
12
13
13
10
11
12
13
11
9
9
10
11
15
9
8
6
7
8
7
8
0
1/89
3/89
5/89
7/89
9/89
11/89
1/90
3/90
5/90
6/29/90
8/90
10/1-7
11/8-28
Approve
Disapprove
No opinion
(Coldwater/MSI)
December 7-12: Do You Approve or Disapprove
of the Way President Bush is Handling
Percentage
100
90
90
Approve
Disapprove
80
76
70
64
59
60
58
53
51
49 49
50
43
40
40
37
34
34
30
22
20
10
7
0
Job Overall
Soviet Relations
Foreign Affairs
Iraq Situation
Environment
Education
Economy
Budget Deficit
Source: RNC National Surveys
December 7-12
(Coldwater/MSI)
Pro and Anti Bush Coalitions by
Voter Political History
Percent
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
o
Pro-Bush Coalition
Anti-Bush Coalition
18
Other: Non-Bush 88
12
2
Other: Bush Voter 88
6
7
Reagan Voter
23
7
Pre-Reagan GOP
18
Pre-Reagan GOP
Reagan Voter
Other: Bush Voter 88
Other: Non-Bush 88
5
IMPORTANCE OF GOALS FOR THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT
TOTAL BUSH COALITION
TOTAL ANTI-BUSH COALITION
Persian Gulf
9.0
Government Waste
9.0
Government Waste
8.9
Education
8.7
Environment
8.6
Middle Class Taxes
8.5
Drug Problem
8.4
Economy
8.4
Education
8.3
Persian Gulf
8.3
Budget Deficit
8.3
Budget Deficit
8.3
Health Insurance
8.3
Economy
8.2
Drug Problem
8.2
Environment
8.1
Middle Class Taxes
8.0
Arms Control
7.9
National Defense
7.8
Homelessness
7.8
Arms Control
7.8
Soviet Relations
7.6
Soviet Relations
7.4
Health Insurance
7.3
Child Care
7.3
National Defense
7.2
Homelessness
7.1
Child Care
6.5
*Items ranked on a zero to ten scale where ten means extremely important
and zero means not at all important
6
Affirmative Action
Do you think there should or should not be special consideration given to blacks in
obtaining jobs because of past discrimination against them?
Should
No
Should
Not
Opinion
Total
20%
76
4
Blacks
48%
44
8
Non-blacks
17%
80
3
Pro-Bush Coalition
16%
81
3
Anti-Bush Coalition
27%
68
5
Pro-Bush Coalition
Pre-Reagan GOP
16%
82
2
Reagan Voter
12%
86
2
$
New Bush
22%
73
5
7
President Bush's "No New Taxes" Pledge
Did President Bush's support of a tax increase to reduce the budget deficit last October
make your opinion him more favorable, less favorable, or did It not make a difference In
your opinion of him?
More
Less
No
No
Favorable
Favorable
Difference
Opinion
Total
10%
36
52
2
Pro-Bush Coalition
11%
31
57
1
Anti-Bush Coalition
10%
43
45
1
Pro-Bush Coalition
Pre-Reagan GOP
9%
29
62
---
Reagan Voters
13%
31
55
1
New Bush
12%
33
55
--
Conservative GOP
10%
29
60
1
Other GOP
14%
23
64
--
Conservative
5%
35
59
1
Democrats
Other Democrats
17%
37
46
--
Anti-Bush Coalition
Pre-Reagan GOP
11%
48
40
1
Reagan Voters
5%
54
39
1
Core-anti
10%
38
50
2
8
Capital Gains Tax
One proposal in Washington is to reduce the tax rate on capital gains. Are you generally
familiar or not familiar with what a tax on capital gains means?
Do you favor or oppose reducing the tax rate on capital gains?
If Familiar
Familiar
No
Favor
Oppose
Opinion
Total
45%
52%
43
5
Republican
51%
62%
32
6
Democrat
39%
42%
55
3
Conservative
46%
54%
40
6
Liberal
43%
48%
49
3
Men
55%
55%
38
6
Women
36%
48%
49
3
RNC National Survey October 13-14, 1990
9
Capital Gains Tax
The capital gains tax is the tax on the sale of stocks, bonds, a home, and other real estate.
Some people favor reducing the tax on capital gains because they think It would Increase
business investment and jobs. Others oppose this proposal because they think it is
mainly a tax cut for the rich. Who do you agree with more -- those who favor or those
who oppose a reduction in the tax on capital gain?
Favor
Oppose
No
Opinion
Total
43%
45
12
Republican
56%
35
10
Democrat
32%
56
13
Conservative
45%
45
11
Liberal
43%
45
12
Men
46%
45
9
Women
40%
46
14
Pro-Bush Coalition
Conservative GOP
58%
34
8
Other Republican
45%
35
20
Conservative Democrat
23%
68
9
Other Democrat
34%
56
10
RNC National Survey October 13-14, 1990
10
Attitudes Toward U.S. Military Action in Iraq
Percentage
100
90
Did the right thing
Should have stayed out
80
75
72
72
70
68
63
60
50
40
30
27
29
22
20
22
20
10
0
Sept 20-26
October 4-7
October 13-14
October 26-31
December 7-12
Source: RNC National Surveys
December 7-12
11
(Coldwater/MSI)
Comparison of Attitudes about U.S.
Military Actions 1952-1990
Percentage
100
90
Did-the-right thing
Should-have stayedout
80
70
62
63
60
57
52
50
43
44
44
44
41
41
40
36
31
29
29
29
30
25
20
10
O
Korea 1952
Vietnam 1966
Vietnam 1968
Vietnam 1972
Lebanon 1983
El Salvador 1983
Grenada 1983
Persian Gulf 1990
Source: RNC National Surveys 1983-1990/Univ. of Mich. 1952-1972
December 7-12
(Coldwater/MSI)
12
Attitudes Toward U.S. Military Action in Iraq
Percentage
80
Stronger Stand
Stay in, but Avoid War
Pull Out
No Opinion
70
60
58
56
50
50
40
35
30
29
30
20
10
11
10
10
3
4
4
0
October 4-7
October 26-31
December 7-12
Source: RNC National Surveys
December 7-12
13 (Coldwater/MSI)
Comparison of Preferred Military Actions: 1952-1990
Percentage
80
Stronger Stand
Stay in/End fighting/Avoid War
70
Pull Out
No Opinion
60
56
50
48
46
44
40
39
3636
37
34
30
29
30
27
23
20
19
19
19
15
12
12
9
10
10
10
6
4
0
Korea 1952
Vietnam 1966
Vietnam 1968
Lebanon 1983
El Salvador 1983
Persian Gulf 1990
Source: RNC National Surveys 1983-1990/Univ. of Mich. 1952-1968
December 7-12
14
(Coldwater/MSI)
Trend to Approval of President Bush's
Handling of the Gulf Crisis
Summary: Public and Private Polls
Percentage
100
Hussein Announces Hostage Release
Announces Baker Visit
80
77
78
78 78
75 75
73
Announces Troop Doubling
71
65
64
65
65
65
64
61
61
62
62
59
60
60
58
57
53
54
51
50
40
41
40
38
37
35
36
36
33
34
31
31
31
32
32
32
28
29
26
27
20
16
17
18 18 18
15
13
0
8/9
8/20
9/5
9/15
10/10
10/13
10/18
11/2
11/13
11/15
11/30
12/6
12/8
Approve
Disapprove
(Coldwater/MSI)
After January 15th
Go to war/
Continue
No
use force
Negotiate
Withdraw
embargo
opinion
23%
11%
35%
28%
3%
IF EMBARGO/NEGOTIATION
DOESN'T WORK
Go to war/use force
27%
Don't go to war
20%
Don't know
3%
Refused
1%
IF 10,000 LIVES LOST
TOTAL DISSENT
Still right thing to do
43%
Withdraw
11%
A mistake
15%
Embargo/negotiate only
20%
Don't know
7%
Mistake if 10,000 lives lost 15%
Refused
1%
46%
16
After January 15th
Mistake
Embargo/
Pro-war/
If lose
negotiate
force
10,000
only
Withdraw
DK/NA
Total
43%
15
20
11
11
Republicans
56%
15
12
5
12
Democrats
31%
16
27
15
11
Approve Bush
57%
15
13
4
11
Disapprove Bush
23%
15
32
21
9
Men
55%
13
16
7
9
Women
32%
17
24
14
13
Men
18-29
52%
19
16
7
6
30-39
64%
14
10
5
7
40-54
58%
9
22
4
6
55+
45%
10
17
10
18
Women
18-29
28%
23
31
10
8
30-39
44%
13
20
14
9
40-54
35%
14
25
13
13
55+
25%
18
20
18
19
Pro-Bush Coalition
Pre-Reagan Repub.
52%
18
13
3
14
Reagan Voter
64%
15
8
4
9
New Bush
53%
13
19
4
11
Conservative GOP
63%
13
8
4
12
Other Republican
58%
16
9
3
14
Conservative Dem.
45%
16
22
2
15
Other Democrat
50%
20
18
5
7
17
RATINGS OF REASONS FOR WAR/USING FORCE
Here are some possible reasons that the U.S. might (go to war with/use military force) against
Iraq. For each one, please tell me how good a reason you think it is for the U.S. to (go to war
with/use military force) against Iraq - a very good reason, a good reason, a poor reason, or a
very poor reason. First
Very
Very
DK/
Collapsed
Good
Good
Poor
Poor
Ref.
Good Poor
To stop Iraq from building
nuclear weapons.
46%
32
15
4
2
78%
20
To make Iraq withdraw from Kuwait.
29%
43
20
5
3
72%
25
To maintain the security and
stability of the Persian Gulf region.
26%
46
19
5
3
72%
25
To destroy Iraq's chemical weapons.
32%
36
25
4
2
68%
30
To remove Saddam Hussein from
power.
36%
28
26
7
2
65%
33
To restore Kuwait's previous
government.
16%
40
30
6
7
56%
36
To avoid a worldwide recession by
making sure Middle East oil flows
freely to the world.
21%
33
30
13
3
54%
44
To punish Iraq for taking American
hostages so other governments are less
likely to use Americans as hostages
again.
21%
28
36
13
2
49%
48
MIDDLE EAST
RNC National Survey December 7-12, 1990
18
RATINGS OF JUSTIFICATIONS FOR WAR/USING FORCE
Here are some things that you might learn about the situation with Iraq. For each one, please
tell me if it would or would not justify the U.S. (going to war/using military force) against Iraq?
Keep in mind that some experts have estimated that a war with Iraq might cost ten thousand
American lives.
Not
DK/
Justify
Justify
Ref.
Iraq is moving chemical weapons to the
border where our troops are positioned.
62%
33
4
Iraq is planning to invade another Middle
Eastern country whenever we withdraw our
troops from the Middle East.
59%
36
6
Iraq is within a few months of having
nuclear weapons.
59%
35
6
Iraq is torturing many of the citizens of
Kuwait who oppose Iraq's occupation of
their country.
50%
45
6
We are on the brink of a worldwide economic
depression because of Iraq's threat to the oil
supplies in the Middle East.
44%
52
5
Iraq is denying adequate food and medicine
to the people staffing the U.S. embassy
in Kuwait.
40%
54
6
MIDDLE EAST
19
RNC National Survey December 7-12, 1990
AGREEMENT WITH IMPORTANCE OR "WISDOM" OF CONFRONTING IRAQ
Here are some statements about the Iraq situation. For each one, please tell me if you strongly
agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree?
Collapsed
Str.
Smwt Smwt Str.
DK/
Tot
Tot
Agr
Agr
Dis
Dis
Ref.
Agr
Dis
If he had nuclear weapons, Saddam
Hussein would not hesitate to use them
against other countries in the Middle East. 55%
20
13
8
4
75%
21
If we don't stand up to Hussein's
aggression in the Middle East, he could
grow to be as much a threat to world
peace as Adolph Hitler.
47%
23
15
12
2
70%
28
There is a good chance that Iraq will
acquire nuclear weapons before the
economic blockade convinces Iraq to
withdraw from Kuwait.
22%
32
22
12
12
55%
34
A severe recession in the U.S. is
likely to result if we do not force Iraq
to withdraw from Kuwait.
22%
27
28
18
5
49%
45
MIDDLE EAST
20
RNC National Survey December 7-12, 1990
Perceptions of Why U.S. Troops Are in the Persian Gulf
I'm going to read you six reasons some people think U.S. troops are in the Persian Gulf
and Saudi Arabia. Please tell me which one you think is the single most Important reason
U.S. troops are there. (ACCEPT ONLY ONE RESPONSE).
To protect the world's oil supply
33%
To force Iraq to withdraw from Kuwait
18
To overthrow Saddam Hussein
10
To free the hostages
6
To protect Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf nations
10
To prevent Iraq from developing nuclear weapons
10
All equally (VOLUNTEERED)
9
None of these (VOLUNTEERED)
2
Don't know
2
21
NBC/WSJ National Survey December 8-11, 1990