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Originally Processed With FOIA(s): FOIA Number: 1998-0004-F[2]; 1999-0098-F; 1999-0163-F S FOIA MARKER This is not a textual record. This is used as an administrative marker by the George Bush Presidential Library Staff. Record Group/Collection: George H.W. Bush Presidential Records Collection/Office of Origin: Chief of Staff, White House Office of Series: Sununu, John, Files Subseries: Issues Files OA/ID Number: 29169 Folder ID Number: 29169-003 Folder Title: Polling (2 of 3) 1991 [3] Stack: Row: Section: Shelf: Position: G 15 25 3 7 MAR 26 '91 01:30PM AT&T FAX 9015PF P.2 MAR 25 '91 15:39 FROM MOR DC PAGE. 002 Far ti Ed MARKET OPINION RESEARCH 1400 L STREET, N.W., SUITE 650, WASHINGTON, D.C. 20005 i (202) 289-0420 MEMORANDUM. CHIEF of STAFF has seen From Rick Reed Market Opinion Research To Charlie Black Re National Survey of Voter Attitudes Date March 25, 1991 Below are the results of a question asked in adi MOR national telephone survey of registered voters. The survey consisted of interviews with 813 randomly selected registered voters across the continental U.S. The sub-sample for this specific question is 580, a result of adding the question to the survey after it was fielded. This in no way skews the results, although the margin of error for 580 is plus or minus 4.05. For 813 it is plus or minus 3.43. Question: "Now I'd like to ask you a question on an employment practice. Here's an example of how it works. A White, a Black, and a Hispanic apply for 11. position as an auto mechanic and each get 300 correct answers on the same exam used to evaluate applicants. On the referral to the potential employer, the Black would be listed as scoring 83, the Hispanic 67 and the White 44 becau 90 the scores are altered based on race. But when the potential employer receives these scores, there is no mention of race. Therefore, it might appear that the Black applicant scored almost twice as high as the White applicant. Supporters of this practice say such 11. system is needed to compensate for tests that are biased against Blacks and Hispanics. Opponents say that altering tust scores based on race can unfairly deny opportunity to those most qualified. From what you know, do you support or oppose this practice?" Support 16% Oppose 77% DK 6% REF/NA 1% THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON THE CHIEF of STAFF has seen October 9, 1990 MEMORANDUM FOR GOVERNOR SUNUNU CHIEF OF STAFF TO THE PRESIDENT FROM: DAVID M. CARNEY SPECIAL ASSISTANT TO THE PRESIDENT AND DIRECTOR, OFFICE OF POLITICAL AFFAIRS SUBJECT: OPINION DIGEST Attached please find Opinion Digest. It includes the latest trends in public opinion on current issues and the most recent polls in key 1990 senate and gubernatorial races. OPINION DIGEST PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL According to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll (9/15-18), 75% of Americans approve of the job George Bush is doing as President and 15% disapprove. -- In this NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll (9/15-18), 63% of Democrats approve of the job President Bush is doing, 75% of Independents approve, and 90% of Republicans approve. BUDGET Over half of Americans, 52%, oppose the new budget plan while 37% approve of it. [Gordon S. Black Corp. for USA Today, 10/2] -- Of those who oppose the budget plan, 52% do not approve of cutting Medicare benefits, 24% disapprove of the gasoline tax hike, but only 2% disapprove most of the luxury tax. [Gordon S. Black Corp. for USA Today, 10/2] More Americans approve of the job President Bush is doing handling the federal budget deficit than approve of the job Congress is doing with it, 44% to 31%. [ABC News, 9/30] -- 60% of Americans disapprove of the job Congress is doing handling the federal budget deficit compared with 46% who disapprove of the way President Bush is handling the problem. [ABC News, 9/30] The Democrats in Congress are blamed 42% to 28% over President Bush for the U.S.'s large deficit. [ABC News, 9/30] 37% of those surveyed believe the new tax plan should have included a capital gains tax cut, compared with 56% who agree that it should not have that tax cut. [ABC News, 9/30] ECONOMY Presidential Approval 49% of those surveyed believe President Bush is doing a below average or poor job handling the economy, compared with 44% who said the President is doing an average or above average job with this issue, and only 3% who said he is doing an excellent job handling the U.S. economy. [Hotline/KRC poll, 9/23-25] Personal Economic Conditions Americans were asked by a Hotline/KRC poll (9/23-25) to look down the road to a year from now and predict what their personal economic condition will be like. Their responses follow: A LOT BETTER 5% SOMEWHAT BETTER 23% SOMEWHAT WORSE 21% A LOT WORSE 6% ABOUT THE SAME 42% THE PERSIAN GULF Presidential Approval According to a recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll (9/15-18), 78% of Americans approve of the job President Bush is doing in handling the conflict in the Persian Gulf. 9/15-18 9/4-5 8/18-19 Approve 78% 75% 72% Disapprove 15% 18% 16% Military Force? o 56% of Americans think the United States should use military force to get the Iraqis out of Kuwait if, after three months, the economic sanctions against Iraq do not work and 31% think we should not use military force. [NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, 9/15-18] U.S. Goals in the Middle East A poll for Americans Talk Security (9/21-26) asked voters to name the top goal of the U.S. in the Middle East. The results follow: US GOAL IN MIDEAST % WHO NAMED IT Lasting peace 22 % Remove Hussein 20% Free oil flow 12% No war in Mideast 12% Iraq out of Kuwait 11% Defend Saudi Arabia 3% With Hindsight Asked what the United States could have done to avert the crisis, 21% of voters said there should have been increased research and development of energy sources other than oil and 18% said the United States shouldn't have helped Iraq with its eight year war with Iran. [Americans Talk Security poll, 9/21-26] Peaceful Resolution? One third (33%) of Americans believe it is very or somewhat likely that the conflict with Iraq will be resolved peacefully, compared with 59% who believe it is very or somewhat unlikely it will be resolved peacefully. [Hotline/KRC poll, 9/23-25] GUN CONTROL Majority Oppose Total Ban on Handguns Less than half, 41%, of Americans want a total ban on handguns except by police and other authorized persons; 55% agree there should not be a law banning the possession of handguns. [Gallup Poll, 9/10-11] Stricter Controls on Guns Favored The percentage of Americans who want "more strict" laws covering the sale of firearms is now 78% (an eighteen percentage point increase from 1986 when only 60% wanted these laws to be stricter). [Gallup Poll, 9/10-11] 81% of those surveyed favor the registration of all handguns (an eleven percentage point increase since 1985 when only 70% favored handgun registration). [Gallup Poll, 9/10-11] 80% of Americans support the idea that those carrying a gun should have a license and 95% believe there should be a seven day waiting period before a gun can be purchased. [Gallup Poll, 9/10-11] Americans strongly favor (76%) a total ban on plastic guns, which are invisible to metal detectors, and on semi-automatic weapons (72%). [Gallup Poll, 9/10-11] Guns in the Home In the most recent Gallup Poll, (9/10-11), 47% of Americans have guns in the house and 52% do not. This number has been virtually unchanged since Gallup began asking this question in 1959 when 49% of Americans had guns in their home and 51% did not. -- Only 29% of households in the East have a gun, compared with 57% in the South. [Gallup Poll, 9/10-11] ASIAN AMERICAN DEMOGRAPHICS The October issue of American Demographics magazine reported on the state of Asian Americans. Among its findings: Asian Americans are the fastest growing minority in the United States. -- The number of Asian Americans grew from 3.8 million in 1980 to an estimated 6.9 million in 1989 -- an 80% increase. The 2.4 million Asian immigrants who arrived in the U.S. during the 1980s contributed to this growth. -- Since 1980, Asian Americans have grown from 1.7% to 2.8% of the U.S. population. 56% of Asian Americans live on the West Coast, compared with 21% of all Americans who live there. Specifically, 39% of all Asian Americans live in California. The average age of Asian Americans is 30, compared with 36 for whites. Asian Americans are more affluent than any other racial or ethnic group identified in census surveys, including whites. The median household income of Asian was $31,578 in 1988, compared with $28,661 for non-Hispanic whites, $20,000 for Hispanics, and $16,004 for blacks. 1990 SENATE RACES TRIAL MATCH-UPS State GOP Republican Democrat Poll Sponsor/Dates Advan. AL * -33 Cabaniss 27% Heflin 60% Mason-Dixon, 9/23-24 -45 Cabaniss 23% Heflin 68% Southern Opinion Research 6/19-23 AK No polling Stevens Beasley CO * 20 Brown 50% Heath 30% Denver Post-News 4 9/9-19 28 Brown 54% Heath 26% Rocky Mountain News 8/7-10 DE No polling Brady Biden HI * 4 Saiki 45% Akaka 41% Honolulu Advertiser 9/10-14 1 Saiki 44% Akaka 43% Political/Media Research 8/29-9/2 ID 22 Craig 53% Twilegar 31% Greenberg-Lake, 7/26-29 IL -15 Martin 36% Simon 51% Political/Media Research, 9/7-11 -25 Martin 27% Simon 52% Chicago Tribune, 8/29-9/1 IN 31 Coats 57% Hill 26% Indianapolis Star 9/10-12 34 Coats 60% Hill 26% Market Strategies 8/17-18 IA * -3 Tauke 41% Harkin 44% Des Moines Register, 9/10-18 -8 Tauke 39% Harkin 47% Political/Media Research, 9/14-18 KA Kassebaum State Party Filling Spot KY * 20 McConnell 53% Sloane 33% Courier-Journal, 9/13-19 15 McConnell 51% Sloane 36% Market Opinion Research 9/4-6 LA -38 Bagert 8% Johnston 46% University of New -25 Duke 21% Orleans, 9/2-12 -37 Bagert 11% Johnston 48% Mason-Dixon, 9/2-5 -20 Duke 28% ME 49 Cohen 69% Rolde 20% Capitol News Service 9/4-7 60 Cohen 70% Rolde 10% Capitol News Service 5/20-24 MA * -3 Rappaport 41% Kerry 45% Boston Globe WBZ-TV, 9/23 -11 Rappaport 39% Kerry 50% Tarrance & Assoc., 9/22 MI * -36 Schuette 27% Levin 63% Detroit News, 9/21-23 -37 Schuette 26% Levin 63% Detroit News, 9/4-6 MN * 15 Boschwitz 55% Wellstone 40% Star Tribune-KSTP 9/14-19 26 Boschwitz 52% Wellstone 26% Political/Media Research 8/31-9/4 MT * -27 Kolstad 31% Baucus 58% Political/Media Research, 9/14-18 -33 Kolstad 28% Baucus 61% Garin-Hart 9/3-4 NE -16 Daub 35% Exon 51% SRI/Gallup of Lincoln, 8/28-30 -9 Daub 41% Exon 50% Wirthlin Group 6/11-12 NH 4 Smith 39% Durkin 35% American Research Group, 9/12-13 NJ -47 Whitman 17% Bradley 64% The Star-Ledger 7/2-10 NM No polling Domenici Benevidez NC * 1 Helms 46% Gantt 45% Charlotte Observer, 9/17-19 -2 Helms 44% Gantt 46% Mason-Dixon 8/7-8 OK 65 Jones 11% Boren 76% Mason-Dixon, 8/21-23 OR 34 Hatfield 58% Lonsdale 24% The Oregonian 8/22-27 27 Hatfield 54% Lonsdale 27% Moore Information 8/1-2 RI * -23 Schneider 35% Pell 58% Brown University poll, 9/16-19 -12 Schneider 40% Pell 52% Alpha Research, 8/22-29 SD 41 Pressler 62% Muenster 21% Wirthlin Group 7/1-2 17 Pressler 43% Muenster 26% Mellman & Lazarus 7/17-24 TN No polling Hawkins Gore TX 36 Gramm 59% Parmer 23% Eppstein Group 7/31-8/11 29 Gramm 58% Parmer 29% Mason-Dixon 8/5-8 WV No polling Yoder Rockefeller WY No polling Simpson Helling Bold=Incumbent *=New Information Five incumbents are unopposed: David Pryor (D-AR) Sam Nunn (D-GA) Thad Cochran (R-MS) Strom Thurmond (R-SC) John Warner (R-VA) 1990 GOVERNORS RACES TRIAL MATCH-UPS State GOP Advan. Republican Democrat Poll Sponsor/Dates AL * 13 Guy Hunt 52% Paul Hubbert 39% Mason-Dixon, 9/23-26 2 Guy Hunt 48% Paul Hubbert 46% Southern Opinion Research 6/19-23 AZ * -10 Fife Symington 37% Terry Goddard 47% KAET-TV, 9/25 -17 Fife Symington 32% Terry Goddard 49% Arizona Republic, 9/13-16 AK No polls Arliss Sturgulewski Tony Knowles AR * -19 Sheffield Nelson 32% Bill Clinton 51% Mason-Dixon, 9/24-26 -17 Sheffield Nelson 35% Bill Clinton 52% KTHV, 7/21-26 CA * -2 Pete Wilson 39% Dianne Feinstein 41% LA Times poll, 9/20-25 8 Pete Wilson 48% Dianne Feinstein 40% Charlton Research, 9/14-16 CO -40 John Andrews 22% Roy Romer 62% Denver Post-News 4, 9/9-19 -35 John Andrews 25% Roy Romer 60% KUSA/Rocky Mountain News, 8/7-10 CT * 3 John Rowland 18% Bruce Morrison 15% "Connecticut Poll", 9/18-25 -16 Lowell Weicker 34% 2 John Rowland 19% Bruce Morrison 17% CT Magazine/CT Public -13 Lowell Weicker 32% Televison, 9/27 -3 John Rowland 18% Bruce Morrison 21% Quinnipiac College Polling -16 Lowell Weicker 34% Institute, 9/12-14 FL 0 Bob Martinez 45% Lawton Chiles 45% Mason-Dixon, early Sept. -4 Bob Martinez 41% Lawton Chiles 45% Florida Opinion poll, 8/25-29 GA -26 Johnny Isakson 28% Zell Miller 54% Mason-Dixon, 7/31-8/1 HI -43 Fred Hemmings 20% John Waihee 63% Political/Media Research 8/29-9/2 -38 Fred Hemmings 25% John Waihee 63% Political/Media Research 7/25-29 ID No polls Roger Fairchild Cecil Andrus IL 4 Jim Edgar 44% Neil Hartigan 40% Political/Media Research 9/7-11 3 Jim Edgar 38% Neil Hartigan 35% Chicago Tribune, 8/29-9/1 IA 13 Terry Branstad 50% Donald Avenson 37% Des Moines Register, 9/10-18 3 Terry Branstad 47% Donald Avenson 44% Political/Media Research, 9/14-18 KS * -4 Mike Hayden 39% Joan Finney 43% KC Star, 9/21-23 -12 Mike Hayden 33% Joan Finney 45% Political/Media Research, 9/19-22 MD -46 Bill Shepard 21% William Don. Schaefer 67% Mason-Dixon, 8/31-9/3 ME -13 John McKernan 37% Joe Brennan 50% Capitol News Service Poll 9/4-7 -8 John McKernan 37% Joe Brennan 45% Capitol News Service Poll 5/20-24 MA * 6 William Weld 44% John Silber 38% Becker Institute, 9/21-24 1 William Weld 43% John Silber 42% Boston Globe WBZ-TV 9/23 MI * -20 John Engler 35% James Blanchard 55% Detroit Free Press, 9/21-23 -12 John Engler 38% James Blanchard 50% Detroit News poll, 9/4-6 MN * 3 Jon Grunseth 46% Rudy Perpich 43% Star-Tribune/KSTP poll 9/14-19 -9 Jon Grunseth 33% Rudy Perpich 42% Political/Media Research, 8/31-9/4 NE -8 Kay Orr 36% Ben Nelson 44% Gallup Poll, 8/28-30 -11 Kay Orr 36% Ben Nelson 47% World Herlad/SRI-Gallup 5/9-11 NV -33 Jim Gallaway 27% Bob Miller 60% Tarrance & Assoc. 8/14-15 NH 33 Judd Gregg 54% Joe Grandmaison 21% American Research Group, 9/12-13 NM No polls Frank Bond Bruce King NY -45 Pierre Rinfret 15% Mario Cuomo 60% Marist poll, 9/10-11 -32 Pierre Rinfret 21% Mario Cuomo 53% Wirthlin Group 7/8-9 OH * 11 George Voinovich 50% Anthony Celebrezze 39% Cincinnati Post and Dayton Daily News, 9/17-25 6 George Voinovich 42% Anthony Celebrezze 36% The Plain Dealer, 9/17-19 OK -11 Bill Price 29% David Walters 40% Mason-Dixon, 9/10-12 OR 8 Dave Frohnmayer 45% Barbara Roberts 37% KPTV Poll, 8/28-30 12 Dave Frohnmayer 45% Barbara Roberts 33% The Oregonian, 8/22-27 PA -40 Barbara Hafer 26% Bob Casey 66% Donilon & Petts Research 7/22-26 -36 Barbara Hafer 25% Bob Casey 61% Bob Casey Campaign 1/9 RI -42 Edward DiPrete 24% Bruce Sundlun 66% Brown University poll, 9/16-19 -35 Edward DiPrete 21% Bruce Sundlun 56% Alpha Research 8/22-29 SC 51 Carroll Campbell 65% Theo Mitchell 14% Metromark 12/4-10/89 SD 47 George Mickelson 63% Bob Samuelson 16% KELO-TV 5/28-30 TN No polls Dwight Henry Ned McWherter TX * 16 Clayton Williams 53% Ann Richards 37% Dresner,Sykes and Townsend, 9/26 15 Clayton Williams 48% Ann Richards 33% Houston Chronicle, 9/5-12 VT 29 Richard Snelling 48% Peter Welch 19% Burlington Free Press, 6/27- 7/1 WI * 41 Tommy Thompson 67% Tom Loftus 26% Milwaukee Journal, 9/19-20 32 Tommy Thompson 60% Tom Loftus 28% Wisconsin Public Radio/St.Norbert College, 9/16-25 WY * -16 Mary Mead 37% Mike Sullivan 53% Tarrance and Associates, 9/14-16 Bold=Incumbent 002 US NATIONAL - January 16 February 11, 1991 Market Strategies, Inc. Q1. Do you feel things in this country are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? 02. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Bush is handling his job as President? BANNER TWO 01/16 17-21 28-29 02/11 01/16 01/17 01/19 01/21 01/28 01/29 02/11 NUMBER OF CASES 401 602 400 200 401 202 200 200 200 200 200 at Right direction/wrong track Right direction 191 6347 233 5642 128" 191 133 48% 6326 118 119 114 112 58% 48% 66% 59% 60% 57% 56% Wrong track 155 2161 138 32% 3855 55 43 35% 21% 32% 68 39% 27% 34% 35%° 32% Don't know 51 % 55 25 19 13% 9% 10% 1351 51 611 29 13% 7% 12 6% 6% to 13 15% 7% 10% Refused/NA FL 5 1%9 1%4 2x5 5 1% 1% 1%³ 1%3 2%4 1 0% 123 3 1% 2%5 02 Approve/disapprove Bush Approve 285 481 303 158 285 161 161 159 148 155 158 71% 80% 76% 79% 71% 80% 81% BOX 74% 78% 79% Disapprove 83 90 71 25 83 27 32 35 36 21% 15% 18% 13% 21% 13% 15% 16% 17% 18% 1325 MARKETSTRATEGIES Don't know to 30 268 28 23 12 7% 5% 6% 6% in 30 12 10 6% 5% 4%⁷ 16 7% 8% 3%⁷ 12 6% Refused/NA 3 1%4 1%³ 5 123 3 1%² 0 1 1 1% 2% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1x² 2%⁵ 02/12/91 13:31 FAX 313 350 3023 003 US NATIONAL - January 16 - February 11, 1991 Market Strategies, Inc. C6. Thinking about a year from пры, do you expect the national economy will Page 2 be better, worse, or about the same as now? c7. Have you read or heard anything about President Bush's budget and domestic proposals for the coming year? C8. Do you think his budget and domestic programs propose to do much, not enough, or about right? (ASKED OF THOSE WHO HAVE HEARD ABOUT PROPOSALS) BANNER TWO 02/11 02/11 NUMBER OF CASES 200 200 C6 A year from now ... Better 82 82 41% 41% Worse 50 50 25% 25% About the same 54 54 27% 27% Don't know T½ 14 7% C7 Read or heard anything Yes 96 96 48% 48% MARKETSTRATEGIES No 103 52% 5203 Don't know 1 0% ox¹ C8 Programs propose to do Too much 11 11 12% 12% Not enough 32 32 34% 34% Are about right 43 43 45% 45% Don't know 9%9 9%⁹ Refused/NA 1 1% 1%¹ 02/12/91 13:31 FAX 313 350 3023 004 US NATIONAL January 16 - February 11, 1991 Market Strategies, Inc. 03. Dp you think we did the right thing sending troops to Saudi Arabia or Page 5 should we have stayed out of the situation? 04. Do you think we are doing the right thing in using military force against Iraq, or do you think we should have waited Longer for the economic sanctions and diplomatic pressure to work? 05. Which one of these three positions do you think we should do NOW in the Persian Gulf area? BANNER TWO 01/16 17-21 28-29 02/11 01/16 01/17 01/19 01/21 01/28 01/29 02/11 NUMBER OF CASES 401 602 400 200 401 202 200 200 200 200 200 03 Sending troops Did the right thing 269 -494 310 151 269 160 151 151 152 158 151 67% 77% 76% 67% 79% 75% 75% 76% 79% 76% Should have stayed out of the situation 103 110 71 29 103 33 39 39 38 33 29 26% 18% 18% 14% 26% 16% 20% 20% 19% 17% 14% Don't know 27 27 18 16 4% 12 27 5% 4% 10 7% 7% 5%⁹ 10 5% 4%⁸ 16 8% 5% 8% Refused/NA 1 2 1 4 1 0% 1%¹ 0%⁰ 1 0 1 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2%⁴ 04 Using military force We are doing the right thing 257 439 288 0 257 154 133 146 MARKETSTRATEGIES 64% 73% 72% 0% 64% 7152 77% 66% 7142 73% 0%⁰ Should have waited longer 119 142 93 0 30% 24% 23% 0% 3819 40 40 62 49 43 20% 20% 31% 25% 22% 0%⁰ Don't know 20 12 21 16 5% 3% 4% 0%⁰ 25 20 5% 4% 3%⁶ 2%⁵ 4%⁸ 4%9 0%⁰ Refused/NA 1%⁵ 1 1%4 0%° 1%5 0 0%⁰ 0%¹ 1 3 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%⁰ Q5 we should do NOW Pull out of area entirely 13 3% 3½⁸ 10 2% 2%⁴ 3 13 9 3 3%⁶ 4 6 3% 4% 1% 2% 3% 2%4 Keep military forces in area but try to negotiate an end 121 136 107 53 121 38 48 52 49 58 53 30% 23% 27% 26% 30% 19% 24% 26% 24% 29% 26% Continue the war until Iraq is forced out of Kuwait 252 433 274 137 252 151 143 137 7141 133 137 63% 72% 68% 68% 63% 75% 71% 68% 66% 68% Don't know 14 2d2 12 3% 2% 2%⁸ 3%⁶ 3½4 1%³ 3%⁶ 2%4 7 3% 1%² 3½⁶ Refused/NA 1 3 1 1 1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%¹ 1 0% 0% 0%¹ 0 1 0% 1% o%¹ 02/12/91 13:32 FAX 313 350 3023 0.05 us NATIONAL - January to - February 11, 1991 Market Strategies, Inc. C33. Do you think George Bush has been honset and forthright with the Page 4 American people about the situation. with Iraq, or do you think he has been withholding important information about the situation from the American people? C34. Do you think he is right or not right to withhold information? (Asked of those who C33=2) BANNER TWO 17-21 28-29 02/11 01/17 01/19 01/21 01/28 01/29 02/11 NUMBER OF CASES 602 400 200 202 200 200 200 200 200 C33. Bush honest and forthright Bush bas been forthright with American people 63% 218 107 6129 6124 124 99 119 55% 54% 62% 50% 59% 54%7 Bush has been withholding information from American people 183 30% 36% 73 36% 28%7 3367 61 30% 4387 2959 36% Don't know 7/1 244 34 18 16 9% 9% 8% 4%⁸ 714 May 13 6% 11% 11 21 18 9% Refused/NA 0%² 0%² 1%² 0%⁰ 0%¹ 1%¹ 0%¹ 1 0% 1%² C34. Right or not right Right 1382 81 69 43 18 33 1427 41 28 43 13% 17% 21% 9% 17% 21% 14% 21% MARKETSTRATEGIES Not Right 84 68 20 31 17% 10% 15% 1427 27 14% 142 1428 21%1 12" 27 20 14% 102 Don't know 24 2%⁷ %: 10 5% 3%⁶ 3% 35 5 2%³ 2%⁴ 1%² 10 5% Refused/NA 1%⁴ 1 0 N 2 0% 0% 1% 0%¹ 1%² 0%⁰ 1%¹ 0%⁰ Not Asked 419 254 327 7145 133 139 113 70% 64% 67% 70% 57% 7121 227 02/12/91 13:32 FAX 313 350 3023 006 US NATIONAL - January 16 - February 11, 1991 Market Strategies, Inc. Page 6 Here are some other people and institutions that are playing a role in the most of these are handling or dealing with the war in the Middle East? Mar, For each one, please tell me If you approve or disapprove of the way BANNER TWO 17-21 28-29 02/11 01/17 01/19 01/21 01/28 01/29 02/11 NUMBER OF CASES 602 400 200 202 200 200 200 200 200 C36. The U.S. military Approve 559 365 180 187 189 181 182 183 180 93% 91% 90% 93% 94% 90% 91% 92% 90% Disapprove 5% 30 Kbg 23 4%9 12 5% 6% 6% 4½9 12 6% 714 5%9 4% Don't know 214 3dl' 11 10 3% 5% 2%³ 3 1% 4%⁷ 2%4 3%⁶ 10 5% Refused/NA 0 1 0% 0%¹ 0%⁰ 0%° 0%⁰ 0%⁰ 1 1% 0%¹ 0% C37. Congress 418 272 141 140 141 135 135 137 141 Approve 70% 68% 71% 69% 71% 68% 68% 69% 71% Disapprove 135 19% 30 39 49 50 45 31 30 22% 15% 19% 24% 25% 22% 16% 15% 4% TX 20 29 25 Don't know 45 48 25 8% 12% 13% 1122 10% 14% 13% MARKETSTRATEGIES Refused/NA 0%3 3 3 1% 1% 1%¹ 1%¹ 1%¹ 0%⁰ 2%3 123 3 1% C3B. The news media Approve 423 236 114 7163 145 130 113 123 114 70% 59% 57% 72% 65% 57% 62% 57% 76 Disapprove 2450 150 144 76 45 49 58 82 62 25% 36% 38% 22% 25% 29% 41% 31% 38% Don't know 466 520 10 12 5% 6% 3%⁵ 2 12 2%⁵ 15 10 6% 7% 5% Refused/NA 0%3 0%⁰ 1 1%² 1%¹ a 0 0%⁰ 0%⁰ o%¹ 0% 0% C39. Our European allies Approve 381 252 0%⁰ 125 137 6122 126 126 63% 63% 62% 68% 63% 63% 0%⁰ Disapprove 2443 97 24% 0%⁰ 48 2293 51 24% 26% 2755 42 21% 0%⁰ Don't know 73 48 0%⁰ 19 25 9% 30 12% 12% 13% 10% 13% 15% 0%⁰ Refused/NA 1%4 3 1% 0%⁰ 1%² 1%¹ 1 1% 0%⁰ 2%3 0%⁰ 02/12/91 13:33 FAX 313 350 3023 C41. Our Arab allies Approve 360 241 60% 0%⁰ 4999 133 122 5919 122 0 60% 67% 61% 61% 0% Disapprove 139 80 23% 0%⁰ 2754 43 48 43 37 20% 21% 24% 21% 18% 0%⁰ Don't know 98 75 0 47 23 27 38 37 16% 19% 0% 23% 11% 14% 19% 19% 0%⁰ Refused/NA 5 5 0 1% 1% 1%² 1 0% 1%² 1 1% 0% 2%⁴ 0%⁰ ) 007 US NATIONAL - January 16 - February 11, 1991 Market Strategies, Inc. Here are some other people and institutions that are playing a role in the Page 7 war, For each one, please tell me, If you approve or disapprove of the way most of these are handling or dealing with the Nar in the Middle East? BANNER TWO 17-21 28-29 02/11 01/21 01/28 01/29 02/11 NUMBER OF CASES 202 400 0 200 200 200 0 C42. Israel Approve 162 329 O 164 164 166 0 80% 82% 0% 82% 82% 83% 0% Disapprove 10% 44 0%⁰ 888 18 11% 9% 1428 84 15 8% 0%⁰ Don't know 21 25 11% 6% 0%⁰ 918 4%⁸ 17 9% 0%⁰ Refused/NA 0 0% 0%² 0%⁰ 0%⁰ 0%⁰ 1%² 0%⁰ D11. Japan Approve 0 63 58 0% 0%⁰ 0%⁰ 63 58 31% 29% 31% 29% Disapprove 0 83 BO 0% 42% 0%⁰ 0%⁰ 83 80 40% 42% 40% Don't know 0%⁰ 26%² 29% 0%⁰ 0%⁰ 52 58 26% 29% MARKETSTRATEGIES Refused/NA 0 0% 1%² 2%4 0%⁰ 0%⁰ 1%² 2%⁶ D12. Anti-war demonstrators Approve 0%⁰ 50 42 0%⁰ 0%⁰ 50 42 25% 21% 25% 21% Disapprove 0 132 145 0% 66% 73% 0x0 0%⁰ 6232 145 73% Don't know 0%⁰ 816 011 ox0 0%⁰ 16 11 8% 6% Refused/NA 0%⁰ 1%² 1½² 0%⁰ 0%⁰ 1% 1 2 1 2 1% 02/12/91 13:33 FAX 313 350 3023 008 US NATIONAL - January 10 February 11, 1991 Marker Strategies, Inc. D13. Do you think our allies are OR are not paying a fair share of the Page 8 financial cost of the war against Iraq? D14- As far as you know, have our allies promised to pay more than half the financial cost of the war against Iraq, promised less than half the cost, or are you not sure about this? BANNER TWO 02/11 02/11 NUMBER OF CASES 200 200 013 Are OR are not paying Are 54 54 27% 27% Are not 105 105 53% 53% Don't know 39 39 19% 19% Refused/NA 1 2 2 1% 1% D14 Promised to pay ... Promised more than half 23 23 11% 11% Promised less than half 40 40 20% 20% MARKETSTRATEGIES Promised about half (VOL) 11 11 6% 6% Not sure 120 120 60% 60% Don't know 3%⁶ 6 3% 02/12/91 13:34 FAX 313 350 3023 009 US NATIONAL - January 16- - February 11, 1991 Market Strategies, Inc. Page 9 C43. Who do you think is winning the war - the U.S., Iraq, or neither side? C44. So far in the war. has the performance of the U.S. military been better or worse of about what you expected? BANNER TWO 17-21 28-29 02/11 01/17 01/19 01/21 01/28 01/29 02/11 NUMBER OF CASES 602 400 200 202 200 200 200 200 200 C43 Who do you think is winning The United States 371 221 129 125 6137 53% 111 109 129 62% 55% 65% 62% 56% 55% 65% Iraq 1%4 1%4 1%¹ 1 = 2 0% 1x¹ 1%² 1%² 1%¹ Neither 3189 147 2632 32%4 52 37% 26% 39% 35% 3876 2632 Don't know 36 222 27 15 280 12 7% 7% 6% 4%⁸ 796 715 62 795 6% Refused/NA 0%² 0x² 2%⁶ 0%⁰ 1%¹ 1 0% 1%² 0%⁰ 2%4 C44 Performance of U.S. Military Better 359 60% 4202 95 6129 117 115 48% 59% 58% 47% 448 48%5 Morse 2/5 15 2% 4% 8/4 18 4% 2%³ 2%⁵ 3½⁶ 3%⁶ 611 4%⁸ MARKETSTRATEGIES About what you expected 33%7 4244 4489 28%7 36% 33 46%2 4676 93 46% 4489 Don't know 5% 30 5% 416 3%⁶ Mog 13 6% 3%⁶ 612 4%8 4x8 3%⁶ Refused/NA 0%¹ 0%⁰ 1x3 0%⁰ ox⁰ 0%¹ 0%⁰ 0%⁰ 1% 180 3 02/12/91 13:34 FAX 313 350 3023 010 US NATIONAL - January 16 - February 11, 1991 Market Strategies, Inc. Q8. How long do you think the war will last -- a few weeks, a month or two, Page 10 several months, OR a year or longer? C46. Have the number of American casualties been higher, lower, or about what you expected? BANNER TWO 01/16 17-21 28-29 02/11 01/16 01/17 01/19 01/21 01/28 01/29 02/11 NUMBER OF CASES 401 602 400 200 401 202 200 200 200 200 200 QB. How Long war will last A few weeks 102 95 10 3%⁶ 102 57 25 13 7 25% 16% 3% 25% 28% 13% 6% 4% 180 3 1% 3%⁶ A month or two 85 137 54 30 85 55 2244 39 23 31 30 21% 23% 14% 15% 21% 27% 20% 12% 16% 15% Several months 101 227 209 104 101 40 83 5182 117 93 104 25% 38% 52% 52% 25% 20% 42% 58% 46% 52% A year or longer 55 65 86 43 55 ,14 22 28 34 51 14% 11% 21% 22% 14% 7% 11% 14% 17% 26% 2243 Don't know 57 76 40 16 57 35 25 17 18 22 9% 11% 8 16 14% 13% 10% 8% 14% 17% 13% 9% 8% Refused/NA 1 1 0 0% 0% 0% 1%² 1 0 0%⁰ 1 0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%⁰ 1% 182 2 C46. American casualties MARKETSTRATEGIES Higher 0 19 0 13 0% 3% 0% 6% 0%⁰ 3%ᵇ 3%⁶ 4%8 0%⁰ 0 13 0% 6% Lower 0 435 0 135 O 145 142 149 0% 72% 68% 72% 71% 74% 0%⁰ 0%⁰ 135 0% 0% 68% About what you expected 0 93 0 39 0 27 37 27 0 0% 16% 0% 19% 0% 13% 19% 14% 0% 0%⁰ 1939 Don't know 0 54 0 11 0%⁰ 24 715 715 0 0%⁰ 11 0% 9% 0% 6% 12% 0% 6% Refused/NA 0%⁰ 1 I 2 0%⁰ 0 0%⁰ 1 0 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0%⁰ 1%² 02/12/91 13:35 FAX 313 350 3023 011 US NATIONAL - January 16 - February 11, 1991 Market Strategies, Inc. C47. How well do you think the U.S. Military has AVIODED harming the Page 11 civilian population in Iraq - extremely well, very well, somewhat wetl, or hot very well? C49. Do you think a ground war against the Iraqi army is or is not neccessary to achieve our objectives? BANNER TWO 02/11 02/11 NUMBER OF CASES 200 200 C47 AVOIDED harming civilian Extremely well 73 36% 3673 Very well 3642 36%² Somewhat well 1735 1735 Not very well 2%⁵ 2½⁵ Don't know ≈ 13 7% 713 Refused/NA Tel 2 1% 1x² COLLAPSED CODES: MARKETSTRATEGIES Ext/Very well 145 145 73% 73% So./Not very well 40 20% 20%0 Don't know/Refused 15 15 8% 8% C49 Ground war neccessary Is 136 136 68% 68% Is not 45 45 22% 22% Don't know 16 16 8% 8% Refused/NA Mas 3 1% 1%³ 02/12/91 13:35 FAX 313 350 3023 012 US NATIONAL - January 16 - February 11, 1991 Market Strategies, Inc. C61. How much information on the war do you get from watching C-M-N News - Page 12 1 a great deal, some, not very much, or none at all? BANNER TWO 02/11 02/11 NUMBER OF CASES 200 200 A great deal 109 54% 5299 Some 1733 1733 Not very much 1201 21 10% 1201 21 10% None at all 1734 1734 Don't know 1%¹ 1%¹ Refused/NA 1%² 1%² MARKETSTRATEGIES 02/12/91 13:36 FAX 313 350 3023 013 US NATIONAL - January 16 - February 11, 1991 Market Strategies, Inc. Here are some positions people are taking on the war. For each one, please Page 14 tell me if you favor or oppose it? Q10. Stop our attack, hold our current positions, and negotiate a settlement Q11. Call a cease fire for two weeks and restart diplomatic efforts to resolve the dispute. Q12. Agree to an international conference on Arab-Israeli problems in return for Iraq withdrawing from Kuwait BANNER TWO 01/16 17-21 28-29 02/11 01/16 01/17 01/19 01/21 01/28 01/29 02/11 NUMBER OF CASES 401 602 0 0 401 202 200 200 0 0 0 010 Hold current positions Favor 178 2176 0%⁰ 0%⁰ 448 3265 58 57 44% 29% 29% 0%⁰ 0%⁰ 0%⁰ Oppose 200 404 50% 67% 0%⁰ 0%⁰ 200 131 132 136 50% 65% 66% 68% 0%⁰ 0%⁰ 0%⁰ Don't know 18 22 0%⁰ 0%⁰ 18 5% 4% 5% 3%⁶ 5%9 3%⁷ 0%⁰ 0%⁰ 0%⁰ Refused/NA 1%⁴ 1 0% 0%⁰ 0x⁰ 1%4 0%⁰ 0%¹ 0%⁰ 0%⁰ 0%⁰ 0%⁰ Q11 Call a cease fire Favor 0 145 121 49 24% 30% 0%⁰ 26%² 2244 50 0% 25% 25% 2958 3283 2549 MARKETSTRATEGIES Oppose 0%0 429 265 137 0 139 147 7142 139 126 137 71% 66% 68% 0% 69% 73% 70% 63% 68% Don't know 0%⁰ $38 28 12 12 0%° 11 5% 3% 6% 5% 5%⁹ 4%⁸ 1%³ 5%⁹ 12 6% Refused/NA 0 0 0% 0% 1%² 1%² 0%⁰ 0%⁰ 0%° 0%⁰ 0%⁰ 1%² 1%² Q12 International conference Favor 0 319 0%⁰ 0 0 102 0% 53% 0% 0% 51% 54% 108 54% 0%⁰ 0%⁰ 0% Oppose 0 235 0% 39% 0%⁰ 0 0 0% 37%5 80 80 0 0% 40% 40% 0% 0%⁰ O~0 0 0% Don't know 0%⁰ 46 8% 0%⁰ 0%⁰ 0%⁰ 23 11 12 12% 6% 6% 0%⁰ 0%° 0%⁰ Refused/NA 0 0%² 0%⁰ 0%⁰ 0%⁰ 1 0% 1% 0%¹ 0%⁰ 0%⁰ 0%⁰ 0%⁰ 02/12/91 13:36 FAX 313 350 3023 014 US NATIONAL - January 16 - February 11, 1991 Market Strategies, Inc. Here are some positions people are taking on the war. For each one, please Page 15 tell me if you favor or bppbse it? 913. Agree to giving Iraq part of Kuwait in return for Iraq withdrawing from the rest of Kuwait? 015. Continue using military force until Iraq surrenders completely 016. Continue using military force until Saddam Hussein is removed from power BANNER TWO 01/16 17-21 28-29 02/11 01/16 01/17 01/19 01/21 01/28 01/29 02/11 NUMBER OF CASES 401 602 0 0 401 202 200 200 0 O 0 Q13 Give Iraq part of Kuwait Favor 53 50 Q 0% 0%⁰ 53 20 17 15 13% 8% 13% 10% B% 7% 0%⁰ 0%⁰ 0%⁰ Oppose 319 521 0 0 319 176 79% 87% 0% 0% 79% all 8872 88% 0%° 0%⁰ 0%⁰ Don't know 26 29 0 0 6% 5% 6% 4%⁸ 12 5%9 0 0% 0% 6% 0% 0%⁰ 0%⁰ Refused/NA 1%4 1 0%° 0%⁰ 1%4 1%¹ 0 0% 0% 0%⁰ 0%⁰ 0%⁰ 0%⁰ a15 Force until Iraq surrenders Favor 309 479 307 0%⁰ 309 162 162 150 77% 77% 77% 7622 155 80% BO% 81% 75% 78% 0%⁰ MARKETSTRATEGIES Oppose 70 103 72 18% 17% 18% 0%⁰ 18%° 32 16%² 2244 37 35 16% 18% 18% 0%° Don't know 19 16 5% 3% 7 17 4% 0%⁰ 5½9 3% 6 3% 3%⁶ 2%³ 11 6% 3%⁶ 0%⁰ Refused/NA 0%² 1%4 1%³ 0%⁰ 0%² 1%¹ 0%° 1% 3 1% 0%⁰ 2x3 0%⁰ 016 Hussein removed from power Favor 0 489 318 164 0% 81% 80% 82% oz" 7233 8468 8163 8263 7855 8184 Oppose 0 87 16% 22 0% 0%⁰ 34 22 34 1734 30 22 14% 11% 17% 11% 17% 15% 11% Don't know 0 $55 25 13 0% 4% 3% 5½¹ 0%⁰ 713 5%9 1%3 2%³ 10 11 5% 5% Refused/NA D 0% 0%² 1%5 2%³ 0%⁰ 1%1 1 1% 0%⁰ 0%⁰ 2%⁵ 2%³ 02/12/91 13:37 FAX 313 350 3023 015 US NATIONAL - January 10- - February 11, 1991 Market Strategies, Inc. C66. Do you think the removal of Saddam Hussein from power should or should Page 17 4. not be one of our objectives in the war against Iraq? BANNER TWO 02/11 02/11 NUMBER OF CASES 200 200 Should 166 166 83% 83% Should not 20 20 10% 10% Don't know 612 612 Refused/NA 2%³ 2%3 MARKETSTRATEGIES 02/12/91 13:38 FAX 313 350 3023 016 US NATIONAL - January 16 - February 11, 1991 Market Strategies, Inc. C68 Suppose He successful ly drive Irag out of Kuwait, but Saddam Hussein Page 19 REMAINS IN POWER. If that were the case, do you think using military force was a mistake or the right thing to have done? BANNER TWO 28-29 02/11 01/28 01/29 02/11 NUMBER OF CASES 400 200 200 200 200 A mistake 85 38 45 40 38 21% 19% 23% 20% 19% Right thing to have done 283 145 143 140 145 71% 72% 72% 70% 72% Don't know 28 13 11 17 13 7% 7% 5% 8% 7% Refused/NA 4 1% 2x4 1 0% 2%³ 4 2% MARKETSTRATEGIES 02/12/91 13:38 FAX 313 350 3023 TO: Ed Rogers FROM: Fred Steeper RE: Highlights of RND and Public Poll Results DATE: February 20, 1991 Almost a majority of the public (49%) favors continuing the war to remove Hussein from power even if he agreed to withdraw from Kuwait. This attitude is especially found among our voters. The public polls over the last few days have also shown that the public places a high importance on Hussein's removal. However, our additional questioning has found there would not necessarily be a backlash if Hussein remained in power. The public is not anxious to start the ground war. They support continuing the air war to reduce U.S. casualties once the ground war starts even if that means postponing the end of the war by several months. The public, however, does not support delaying the ground war or calling a cease fire to allow for a negotiated settlement. The public does believe that the U.S. is carrying more than its fair share of the financial costs of the war. This could be a problem for the Administration in the aftermath of the War. All other perceptions and opinions remain very positive of current policy and performance in regard to the War. Their perceptions of the U.S. military's performance is very positive. They believe they are receiving enough information about the war and that the restrictions on the media are justified. The public thinks the military is doing a very good job avoiding civilian casualties and that military targets should be hit even if there are civilians located there. The public believes that the country is largely united behind the war. The anti-war protestors have not created a sense of national strife. The public does not expect a quick end to the war. 02/20/91 Should We Continue the War Until Hussein is Removed from Power Yes, even if Iraq 49 withdraws from Kuwait 16:12 FAX 313 350 3023 Yes, but not if Hussein withdraws 25 from Kuwait first No, should not be a goal at all 17 MARKETSTRATEGIES Not sure 9 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Percent Source: RNC National Surveys 2/18 M 010/200 Should We Continue the War Until We Have Destroyed Most of Iraq's Military Capability? Yes, even if Iraq 36 withdraws from Kuwait 02/20/91 18:12 FAX 313 350 3023 Yes, but not if Hussein withdraws 35 from Kuwait first No, should not be a goal at all 21 MARKETSTRATEGIES Not sure 8 0 10 20 30 40 Percent Source: RNC National Surveys 2/18 03/013 Two Views of the Ground War Some people say we should now start the ground war against the Iraqi army in order to get the war over as soon as possible even if that increases American and allied casualties. Others say that we should delay the ground war and rely on more bombing of the Iraqi army because that might mean fewer casualties when the ground war starts even if that means putting off the end of the war for 02/20/91 16:12 FAX 313 350 3023 several months. Which of these two opinions is closest to your own? Rely on air war 62% Do you think we should delay the ground war to give more time for current diplomatic efforts to end the war, or should we start the ground war as soon as the U.S. military thinks the time is right? No opinion 6% MARKETSTRATEGIES Start ground war now 32% Delay for 36% diplomatic efforts No opinion 1% Start ground war 63% when military says Source: RNC National Surveys 2/18 time is right 004/013 National Direction: 1989-1991 Percent 100 90 Right direction Wrong-track 80 02/20/91 16:13 FAX 313 350 3023 74 70 64 48 63 63 59 60 58 59 53 54 54 54 51 52 49 50 46 4T 40 39 39 41 40 37 38 35 36 31 32 30 28 26 27 25 20 20 MARKETSTRATEGIES 10 0 Jan 89 Apr 89 Oct 89 Mar 90 May 90 June 14, 90 June 29, 90 Oct 4-7, 90 Oct 13-14, 90 Oct 26-31, 90 Dec 7-12, 90 Jan 4-12, 91 Jan 17-21, 91 Jan 28-29, 91 Feb 11-14, 91 Feb 18, 91 Source: RNC National Surveys 005/013 Trend to Approval of President Bush's Overall Job Performance Summary: Public and Private Polls 100 Breaks "No Tax" Debate on Budget/ Announces Troop Pledge Troops to Gulf Tax Fairness Doubling 02/20/91 16:13 FAX 313 350 3023 New Budget 80 78 79 80 75 Agreement Announces Reker Visit 70 69 69 63 64 64 63 60 58 60 56 56 Budget House Defeats Budget/ Hostage Desert Summit Debate on Revisions Election Release Storm 40 37 37 34 32 28 28 28 24 21 MARKETSTRATEGIES 19 17 17 18 20 15 16 14 13 12 13 11 10 9 8 7 8 7 7 8 8 6 7 5 0 4/90 5/90 6/90 6/29/90 7/90 8/90 9/90 10/1-4 10/7-21 10/2-11/4 11/8-28 12/90 1/91 1/16-21 1/23-29 2/11-18 Approve Disapprove No opinion (Average results of several public and private polls shown) CTA/000 Attitudes Toward U.S. Military Action in Persian Gulf 100 90 11/30 - Announces Baker Visit 80 1/9 Baker/Aziz 77 77 77 75 72 72 Meeting 74 68 02/20/91 16:14 FAX 313 350 3023 70 67 63 63 60 11/8 - Announces Troop Doubling 50 1/16 Desert 12/6 - Hussein Announces Storm Begins Hostage Release 40 32 29 30 27 26 22 22 20 20 18 18 20 17 MARKETSTRATEGIES 10 I 0 9/20-26/90 10/4-7/90 10/13-14/90 10/26-31/90 12/7-12/90 1/4-12/91 1/16/91 1/17-21/91 1/28-29/91 2/11-14/91 2/18 Did the right thing Should have stayed out Source: RNC National Surveys 0007/013 5 Attitudes Toward U.S. Military Action in Persian Gulf 80 72 68 11/30- - Announces Baker Visit 63 63 60 58 1/9 - Baker/Aziz 60 Meeting 02/20/91 16:14 FAI 313 350 30.23 56 50 49 S.H. Announces 1/16 Desert 11/8 - Announces Hostage Storm Begins Troop Doubling Release 41 40 35 35 32 29 30 30 27 23 20 MARKETSTRATEGIES 10 11 10 8 3 3 2 3 3 0 10/4-7/90 10/26-31/90 10/7-12/90 1/4-12/91 1/16/91 1/17-21/91 1/28-29/91 2/11-14/91 2/18 Continue force/ Stay in, end fighting Pull out Stronger stand Source: RNC National Surveys CTO/800 Public Approval of the Role of Various Groups and Institutions in the War Percent 100 95 Approve Disapprove Don't know/Refused 02/20/91 18:14 FAX 313 350 3023 82 80 71 70 69 59 60 50 45 43 40 MARKETSTRATEGIES 28 29 26 20 21 20 17 15 13 11 12 8 7 4 3 1 0 U.S. Military Israel U.S. Congress European Allies Our Arab Allies News Media Japan Anti-war Protesters 2/18 1/28-29 2/11-14 2/18 2/18 2/18 2/11-14 2/11-14 Source: RNC National Surveys CTO/600 02/20/91 Perception of Support Among Different Groups Percent 100 Most of them About half of them 87 Less than half of them Don't know/Refused 80 16:15 FAX 313 350 3023 60 52 40 38 38 33 MARKETSTRATEGIES 28 25 25 20 16 12 11 13 9 8 4 0 0 The American People Media Commentators People in Europe People in Middle East Source: RNC National Surveys 010/013 Trend to Perceptions of How Long the War Will Last/Continue (2/18) Percent A few weeks A month or two Several months A year or longer 02/20/91 16:15 FAX 313 350 3023 60 51 52 52 51 42 40 28 25 MARKETSTRATEGIES 27 21 22 20 21 21 20 20 20 14 13 14 14 14 11 7 11 6 9 3 2 1 0 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 19 Jan 21 Jan 28-29 Feb 11-14 Feb 18 Source: RNC National Surveys 011/013 Trend to Public Approval of the Role of the News Media in the War Percent 100 Approve Disapprove Don't know/Refused 02/20/91 16:16 FAX 313 350 31:23 80 71 72 65 60 59 55 50 45 40 39 36 MARKETSTRATEGIES 29 25 22 20 7 6 3 5 6 5 0 I Jan 17 Jan 19 Jan 21 Jan 28-29 Feb 11-14 Feb 18 Source: RNC National Surveys 012/013 Public Attitude Toward Information Flow from the Persian Gulf Too strict/ 13 Too much 02/20/91 16:16 FAX 313 350 3023 Restrictions placed on Not strict enough/ 33 the news media covering Not enoligh the war 51 About right 3 Don't know/Refused 26 Quantity of information 11 MARKETSTRATEGIES given by U.S. Military at briefings 61 2 0 20 40 60 80 100 Percent Source: RNC National Surveys CTO/CTO 02/15/91 17:10 FAX 313 350 3123 MARKETSTRATEGIES 003 MEMORANDUM TO: Robert M. Teeter FROM: Fred Steeper Elizabeth Sarvello Jamett RE: Bombing of Iraqi Civilians on February 13th DATE: 15 February 1991 Within 24 hours of the incident, an impressive 92% were aware of the bombing of an Iraqi building which resulted in civilian casualties, and a resounding 80% believe the U.S. military's explanation that the building WEIS being used as a command and control center by the Iraqi military. Only 10% think that the U.S. military made a mistake and bombed a building that was used only as a bomb shelter for civilians. Moreover, there is majority support for bombing military targets even if Iraqi civilians are located there. About 60% think the U.S. should still bomb these military sites, while 27% believe the targets should not be bombed. In general, 73% of the people think that the U.S. military has done "extremely well" or "very well" avoiding harming the civilian population in Iraq. One in five (20%) think the military has done only "somewhat well" or 'not very well" avoiding civilians. In contrast to many other perceptions on the war, there is not a significant difference between men and women on the military's decision to bomb the Iraqi building where civilians were located, with 78% of women and 83% of men believing the military's reasoning. On the general issue of bombing military targets where civilians are located, the gender gap is significant. Three-quarters (74%) of men support such bombing, compared to a bare majority (50%) of women. Young peop B are more split on this issue with 48% agreeing that the bombing should be done, and 39% saying we should not bomb military targets that contain civilians. Men think that the military is doing a better job of avoiding the civilians in their attacks (85% "extremely well" or "very well") than women (63% "extremely well" or "very well"). 02/15/91 17:10 FAX 313 350 3023 MARKETSTRATEGIES 002 02/15/91 16:09 MARKETSTRATEGIES 0002 February 15, 1991 MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT FROM: Bob Teeter Following is a memo from Fred Steeper concerning opinions about the February 13th bombine incident. Also attached are some graphs on questions Fred has been tracking over the last four weeks. CC: Governor Sununu 1005 $ Trend to Approval of President Bush's Overall Job Performance Summary: Public and Private Polls 100 Breaks "No Tax" Debate on Budget/ Announces Troop Pledge Troops to Gulf Tax Fairness Doubling New Budget 80 78 80 75 Agreement Announces 76 71 Baker Visit 70 69 69 MARKETSTRATEGIES 63 64 64 63 60 58 60 56 56 Budget House Defeats Budget/ Hostage Summit Debate on Revisions Election Desert Release Storm 40 37 37 34 32 28 2B 28 24 21 19 20 17 18 18 17 15 14 13 12 13 10 11 9 8 7 8 7 7 8 8 8 6 6 02/15/91 17:11 FAX 313 350 3023 0 4/90 5/90 6/90 6/29/90 7/90 8/90 9/90 10/1-4 10/7-21 10/2-11/4 11/8-28 12/90 1/91 1/17-21 1/28-29 2/11-14 Approve Disapprove No opinion (Average results of several public and private polls shown) 004 National Direction: 1989-1991 Percent 100 90 Right direction Wrong track 80 74 70 64 65 63 63 MARKETSTRATEGIES 59 60 58 53 54 54 54 51 52 49 50 46 41 40 37 39 39 41 40 38 35 36 31 30 26 28 25 27 20 20 10 02/15/91 17:11 FAX 313 350 3123 0 Jan 89 Apr 89 Oct 89 Mar 90 May 90 June 14, 90 June 29, 90 Oct 4-7, 90 Oct 13-14, 90 Oct 26-31, 90 Dec 7-12, 90 Jan 4-12, 91 Jan 17-21, 91 Jan 28-29, 91 Feb 11-14, 91 Source: RNC National Surveys 007 Attitudes Toward U.S. Military Action in Persian Gulf 80 72 68 63 63 11/30 Announces 60 58 Baker Visit 1/9- - Baker/Aziz 56 Meeting 50 49 MARKETSTRATEGIES 1/16 Desert 11/8 - Announces 12/6 Hussein Announces Storm Begins Troop Doubling 41 40 Hostage Release 35 29 30 32 30 27 23 20 10 11 10 02/15/91 17:12 FAX 313 350 31.23 8 3 3 2 3 0 10/4-7/90 10/26-31/90 10/7-12/90 1/4-12/91 1/16/91 1/17-21/91 1/28-29/91 2/11-14/91 Continue force/ Stay in, end fighting Pull out Stronger stand Source: RNC National Surveys 900 Attitudes Toward U.S. Military Action in Persian Gulf 100 90 11/30 - Announces Baker Visit 80 1/9 - Baker/Aziz 77 77 75 72 Meeting 74 72 70 68 67 63 63 60 11/8 - Announces MARKETSTRATEGIES Troop Doubling 50 1/16 Desert 2/6 - Hussein Announces Storm Begins Hostage Release 40 32 29 30 27 26 22 22 20 20 18 18 17 in 02/15/91 17:12 FAX 313 350 3123 0 9/20-26/90 10/4-7/90 10/13-14/90 10/26-31/90 12/7-12/90 1/4-12/91 1/16/91 1/17-21/91 1/28-29/91 2/11-14/91 Did the right thing Should have stayed out Source: RNC National Surveys X Trend to Public Approval of the Role of the News Media in the War Percent 100 Approve Disapprove Don't know/Refused 80 MARKETSTRATEGIES 71 72 65 59 60 55 39 40 36 29 25 22 02/15/91 17:13 FAX 313 350 3123 20 7 6 5 6 3 0 I Jan 17 Jan 19 Jan 21 Jan 28-29 Feb 11-14 Source: RNC National Surveys 2008 Public Approval of the Role of Various Groups and Institutions in the War Percent 100 89 Approve Disapprove Don't know/Refused 82 80 MARKETSTRATEGIES 70 71 63 60 60 55 43 40 39 00 29 24 02/15/91 17:13 FAA 313 350 3023 2020 21 20 17 13 11 13 6 7 8 5 6 0 U.S. Military Israel U.S. Congress European Allies Our Arab Allies News Media Japan Anti-war Protesters 2/11-14 1/28-29 2/11-14 1/28-29 1/28-29 2/11-14 2/11-14 2/11-14 Source: RNC National Surveys ITOM Trend to Perceptions of How Long the War Will Last Percent A few weeks A month or two Several months A year or longer 60 MARKETSTRATEGIES 51 52 52 42 40 28 25 27 21 22 20 21 21 20 20 02/15/91 17:14 FAX 313 350 31.23 14 13 14 14 14 7 11 6 3 2 0 1 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 19 Jan 21 Jan 28-29 Feb 11-14 Source: RNC National Surveys 010 Trend to Perceptions of Who is Winning the War Percent 100 United States Iraq Neither 80 MARKETSTRATEGIES 69 63 62 60 55 53 39 40 37 32 26 27 02/15/91 17:14 FAX 313 350 3023 20 0 1 1 1 0 0 Jan 17 Jan 19 Jan 21 Jan 28-29 Feb 11-14 Source: RNC National Surveys 012 Public Perception of Military Force if Coalition Drives Iraq Out of Kuwait, but Hussein Remains in Power Percent 100 Still right thing A mistake Don't know/Refused to have done MARKETSTRATEGIES 80 73 71 60 40 02/15/91 17:14 FAX 313 350 31,23 21 20 20 8 7 0 January 28-29 February 11-14 Source: RNC National Surveys SENT BY: XEROX Telecopier 7017; 2-22-91 :12:11PM ; NRCC- 4566216;# 2 NRCC February 20-21, 1990 N-300 +5.66 MASSACHUSETTS 01 FEBRUARY 1991 FINAL Hello, this is with Western Research, a national research firm. We're talking with people in Massachusetts today and would like to ask you a few questions about public leaders and issues facing us all. A. Are you registered to vote in Massachusetts? YES (CONTINUE WITH INTERVIEW) NO (ASK QUESTION B) IF "NO" IN Q.A, ASK: B. Is there anyone else in your household who is registered to vote in Massachusetts? (IF "NO," THANK AND TERMINATE) (IF "YES," ASK:) May I speak with that person please? (REPEAT Q.A WITH NEW PERSON) 1. Generally speaking, would you say that things in Massachusetts are going in the right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? RIGHT DIRECTION 17% WRONG TRACK 69% DON'T KNOW/REFUSED 14% 2. What would you say is the most important problem facing your local area today, that is, the one that you, yourself are most concerned about? (PROBE) SENT BY: XEROX Telecopier 7017; 2-22-91 :12:11PM ; NRCC- 4566216;# 3 3. Do you approve or disapprove STRONGLY APPROVE 46% of the way George Bush is SOMEWHAT APPROVE 27% handling his job as President? SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE 9% STRONGLY DISAPPROVE 13% (WAIT FOR RESPONSE, THEN ASK:) Do you strongly (approve/disapprove) NO OPINION (DO NOT READ) .5% or just somewhat (approve/ disapprove) ? 4. Do you approve or disapprove of STRONGLY APPROVE 59% President Bush's handling of SOMEWHAT APPROVE 19% the war in the Persian Gulf? SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE 4% STRONGLY DISAPPROVE 13% (WAIT FOR RESPONSE, THEN ASK:) Do you strongly (approve/disapprove) NO OPINION (DO NOT READ) .5% or just somewhat (approve/ disapprove) ? 5. Do you approve or disapprove STRONGLY APPROVE 12% of the way Bill Weld is SOMEWHAT APPROVE 20% handling his job as Governor? SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE 9% STRONGLY DISAPPROVE 13% (WAIT FOR RESPONSE, THEN ASK:) Do you strongly (approve/disapprove) NO OPINION (DO NOT READ) 46% or just somewhat (approve/ disapprove) ? As you may know, Congressman Silvio (Sil-vee-OH) Conte (CON-tee) recently passed away. His seat in the U.S. House of Representatives will have to be filled by a special election. 6. Thinking ahead to the special REPUBLICAN 25% election, if the election for DEMOCRAT 24% U.S. Congress were being held DON'T KNOW/UNDECIDED today, would you be voting for (DO NOT READ) 51% (ROTATE) the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate from this district? SENT BY: XEROX Telecopier 7017; 2-22-91 :12:11PM ; NRCC- 4566216;# 4 Now, I would like to read you a list of names of people who are involved in politics here in the area and please tell me, for each one, first whether you've heard of the person; then, if so, please tell me whether you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person. Heard Heard Heard Never Fav Unfav No opin Heard (ROTATE NAMES) 7. Christopher Hodgkins 16% 4% 14% 67% 8. Carmen Massimiano 14% 4% 9% 72% (MASS-uh-me-ahno) 9. Steve Pierce 31% 12% 19% 38% 10. Dan Quayle 33% 40% 20% 8% 11. Jane Garvey 21% 4% 16% 58% 12. Corinne Conte 37% 5% 35% 23% (Kuh-RIN CON-tee) 13. James Collins 16% 3% 13% 68% 14. Besides honesty, what one quality or characteristic would you most like to see in your next Congressman? (PROBE) 15. Now, thinking about the special APRIL 30 : 1% election for U.S. Congress, APRIL 6% do you know what date the special JUNE 4 7% election will be? (DO NOT READ JUNE 13% CHOICES, RECORD RESPONSE ONLY NAMED OTHER MONTH 6% DON'T KNOW 67% SENT BY: XEROX Telecopier 7017; 2-22-91 :12:12PM ; NRCC- 4566216;# 5 Now, I would like to read you another list of people who are involved in politics here in the area and please tell me, for each one, first whether you've heard of the person; then, if so, please tell me whether you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person. Heard Heard Heard Never Fav Unfav No opin Heard (ROTATE NAMES) 16. Micheal Dukakis 24% 71% 5% * (Dew-KAW-kiss) 17. Peter Weber 26% 3% 14% 57% 18. Jane Fitzpatrick 24% 5% 21% 50% 19. Joe Malone 31% 10% 21% 38% 20. John Olver 27% 7% 8% 58% 21. Shannon O'Brien 26% 6% 21% 47% 22. Linda Melconian 28% 8% 9% 55% 22a. John Burke 13% 8% 16% 62% (ROTATE Q8.23-27) 23. If the special election for Congress STEVE PIERCE 42% were being held today, and the CARMEN MASSIMIANO 23% the candidates were (ROTATE) Steve Pierce, Republican and UNDECIDED 35% Carmen Massimiano, Democrat -- for whom would you vote? 24. If the special election for Congress were being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were (ROTATE) Corinne Conte, Republican 51% and James Collins, Democrat 22% UNDECIDED (DO NOT READ) 28% SENT BY: XEROX Telecopier 7017; 2-22-91 :12:12PM ; NRCC-> 4566216;# 6 25. And, if the elections for United States Congress were being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were (ROTATE) Steve Pierce, Republican 41% and Jane Garvey, Democrat 26% UNDECIDED (DO NOT READ) 33% 26. And, if the elections for United States Congress were being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were (ROTATE) Corinne Conte, Republican 52% and Jane Garvey, Democrat 17% UNDECIDED (DO NOT READ) 31% 27. And, if the elections for United States Congress were being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were (ROTATE) Peter Weber, Republican 37% and Carmen Massimiano, Democrat 19% UNDECIDED (DO NOT READ) 44% SENT BY: XEROX Telecopier 7017; 2-22-91 :12:12PM ; NRCC- 4566216;# 7 28. Now, I'd like to read you the beginning of a sentence and have you finish it using your own words. Now, here's the sentence. If I have one hesitation or concern about electing Steve Pierce to Congress, it is (PROBE) 29. Now, I'd like to read you the same sentence about a different person, and please finish it using your own words. Now, here's the sentence. If I have one hesitation or concern about electing Corinne Conte to Congress, it is. (PROBE) Now, I'd like to read you descriptions of potential candidates, and please tell me, based on that information, which one you would be more likely to support: 30. On the issue of the War in the Gulf Candidate A supported the President and supports continued use of military force against Iraq. Candidate B opposed the use of force, and supports an immediate ceasefire, the continuation of economic sanctions, and negotiations. CANDIDATE A 72% CANDIDATE B 23% NO OPINION (DO NOT READ) 4% SENT BY: XEROX Telecopier 7017: 2-22-91 :12:12PM ; NRCC- 4566216;# 8 Now, thinking about some issues. 32. Which one of the following statements most closely describes your position on the issue of abortion? (ROTATE TOP-TO-BOTTOM AND BOTTOM-TO-TOP ONLY) Abortions should be prohibited in all circumstances 5% Abortions should be legal only to save the life of the mother 6% Abortions should be legal only in the cases of rape, incest or to save the life of the mother 28% Abortions should be legal for any reason, but not after the first three months of pregnancy 36% Abortions should be legal at any time during a woman's pregnancy and for any reason 20% DON'T KNOW/REFUSED (DO NOT READ) 5% Thinking further about the issue of abortion 33. If a candidate's position on abortion differs from your own, how likely is it that this particular difference alone would determine your vote on election day? Is it extremely likely very likely. somewhat likely or not very likely? EXTREMELY LIKELY 11% VERY LIKELY 12% SOMEWHAT LIKELY 338 NOT VERY LIKELY 40% DON'T KNOW/REFUSED (DO NOT READ) 3% SENT BY: XEROX Telecopier 7017; 2-22-91 :12:13PM ; NRCC- 4566216;# 9 Thinking about the issue of defense spending. 34. Do you favor or oppose increased funding for defensive military systems such as the Patriot missile? that? (WAIT FOR RESPONSE, THEN ASK:) And, do you feel strongly about FAVOR/STRONGLY 38% FAVOR 23% OPPOSE 15% OPPOSE/STRONGLY 19% DON'T KNOW (DO NOT READ) 5% 35. And, do you favor or oppose increased funding for the Strategic Defense Initiative, which has been proposed to protect American cities from nuclear missles? (WAIT FOR RESPONSE, THEN ASK:) And, do you feel strongly about that? FAVOR/STRONGLY 31% FAVOR 26% OPPOSE 12% OPPOSE/STRONGLY 22% DON'T KNOW (DO NOT READ) 9% Thinking now about some issues facing Massachusetts 36. As you may know, there are 10 Democrat Congressmen, two Democrat Senators, and Silvio Conte was the only Republican member of Congress in Washington from Massachusetts. I'd like to read you a statement some people have made, and please tell me if you agree or disagree. Here's the statement This district should elect another Republican to Congress, so that Massachusetts has someone who can work with Republican President George Bush. (WAIT FOR RESPONSE, THEN ASK:) AGREE/STRONGLY 20% And, do you feel strongly about this? AGREE 18% DISAGREE 28% DISAGREE/STRONGLY 26% NO OPINION 8% SENT BY: XEROX Telecopier 7017; 2-22-91 :12:13PM ; NRCC- 4566216:#10 37. Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate who had worked closely with former Governor Micheal Dukakis? (WAIT FOR RESPONSE, THEN ASK:) MUCH MORE LIKELY 3% Would you be much (more likely/ SOMEWHAT MORE LIKELY 9% less likely) or just somewhat SOMEWHAT LESS LIKELY 19% (more likely/less likely) ? MUCH LESS LIKELY 40% NO DIFFERENCE (DO NOT READ) 24% NO OPINION (DO NOT READ) 6% 38. Do you approve or disapprove of Bill Weld's new state budget, which cuts $850 million from state programs, but does not raise taxes? (WAIT FOR RESPONSE, THEN ASK:) STRONGLY APPROVE 14% Is that strongly (approve/disapprove) SOMEWHAT APPROVE 22% or just somewhat (approve/disapprove) ? SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE 18% STRONGLY DISAPPROVE 33% DON'T KNOW 14% 39. As you may know, Corinne (Kuh-RIN) Conte (CON-tee) is the widow of Congressman Silvio Conte. I'd like to read you four statements people have made about her running for Congress, and please tell me which one comes closest to your own opinion. (ROTATE READING TOP-TO-BOTTOM, BOTTOM-TO-TOP) I probably would not vote for Corinne Conte because I did not like the job Silvio Conte was doing in Congress 2% I probably would not vote for Corinne Conte because I do not think she has the political experience this area needs in Congress 30% I would consider voting for Corinne Conte out of respect if she plans to finish out Silvio's term in 1992 23% I would definitely vote for Corinne Conte, because she knows how Washington, D.C. works and would continue the Silvio Conte tradition 33% DON'T KNOW/NO OPINION (DO NOT READ) 13% SENT BY: XEROX Telecopier 7017; 2-22-91 :12:14PM ; NRCC- 4566216:#11 40. Now, I'd like to read you some information about Steve Pierce, and please tell me if it would make you less likely to vote for him or if it makes no difference to your vote. In 1989 Steve Pierce filed four years of late income tax returns. (IF "LESS LIKELY," THEN ASK:) NO DIFFERENCE 40% Would you be much less likely SOMEWHAT LESS LIKELY 24% or just somewhat less likely MUCH LESS LIKELY 30% to vote for Steve Pierce? NO OPINION (DO NOT READ) 5% 40a. Now, I'd like to read you somew information about Corrine Conte, and please tell me if it would make you less likely to vote for her, or if it makes no difference to your vote. In a special Congressional election, Corinne Conte would not debate her opponent. (IF "LESS LIKELY," THEN ASK:) NO DIFFERENCE 52% Would you be much less likely SOMEWHAT LESS LIKELY 25% or just somewhat less likely MUCH LESS LIKELY 18% to vote for Corinne Conte? NO OPINION (DO NOT READ) 5% SENT BY: XEROX Telecopier 7017; 2-22-91 :12:35PM ; NRCC- 4566216;# 2 Finally, I would like to ask you a few questions for statistical purposes only 41. What is your age, please? 18 - 24 7% 25 - 29 10% 30 - 34 9% 35 - 44 27% 45 - 54 15% 55 - 64 12% 65 AND OLDER 19% REFUSED (DO NOT READ) 1% 42. In which political party do state REPUBLICAN 18% records show that you are registered DEMOCRAT (ASK Q43) 34% to vote -- (ROTATE) -- the Republican INDEPENDENT 46% party, the Democratic party -- or OTHER/REFUSED (SKIP TO are you registered as an Independent? Q44) 2% IF "DEMOCRAT" IN Q.42, ASK: 43. For whom would you vote in the Democratic primary election for Congress if the candidates were: (ROTATE) Jane Garvey, Christopher Hodgkins, Carmen Massimiano (MASS-uh-me-ahno), James Collins, Shannon O'Brien, John Olver. John Burke? JAMES COLLINS 6% JANE GARVEY 7% CHRISTOPHER HODGKINS 5% CARMEN MASSIMIANO 12% SHANNON O'BRIEN 7% JOHN OLVER 17% JOHN BURKE 6% UNDECIDED (DO NOT READ) 41% 44. What, if any, newspapers do you read most frequently? (DO NOT READ CHOICES) ATHOL DAILY NEWS 2% BERKSHIRE EAGLE 20% BOSTON GLOBE 7% DAILY HAMPSHIRE GAZETTE 13% THE NEWS (Westfield) 1% THE RECORDER (Greenfield) 6% TELEGRAM-GAZETTE ( Worcester) 3% TRANSCRIPT (North Adams) 3% TRANSCRIPT-TELEGRAM (Holyoke) 3% UNION-NEWS/SUNDAY REPUBLICAN (Springfield) 31% SENT BY: XEROX Telecopier 7017; 2-22-91 12:36PM ; NRCC- 4566216;# 3 45. Which local television news do you watch the most often? WBZ (NBC -- Channel 4/Boston) 6% WCVB (ABC -- Channel 5/Boston) 5% WFSB (CBS -- Channel 3/Hartford) 7% WFXT (FOX -- Channel 25/Boston) * WGGB (ABC -- Channel 40/Springfield) 18% WHDH (CBS -- Channel 7/Boston) 2% WNYT (NBC -- Channel 13/Albany) 3% WRGB (CBS -- Channel 6/Albany) 6% WTEN (ABC -- Channel 10/Albany) 7% WTIC (FOX -- Channel 61/Hartford) * WTNH (ABC -- Channel 8/Hartford) 0% WVIT (NBC -- Channel 30/Hartford) 0% WWLP (NBC -- Channel 22/Springfield) 33% WXXA (FOX -- Channel 23/Albany) 0% 46. Do you regularly watch Cable Television such as CNN or ESPN? YES 63% NO 37% 47. And, what do you consider your main ethnic or racial origin? (READ ENTIRE LIST SLOWLY, ACCEPT ONE RESPONSE ONLY) ENGLISH 24% IRISH 18% ITALIAN 11% POLISH 7% FRENCH-CANADIAN 13% GERMAN 6% EASTERN EUROPEAN/RUSSIAN 3% SCANDINAVIAN 2% BLACK AMERICAN 1% HISPANIC 1% ASIAN 0% WHITE (DO NOT READ) 9% OTHER (DO NOT READ) 4% REFUSED (DO NOT READ) 1% 48. And, do you consider your PROTESTANT 29% religion to be Protestant, CATHOLIC 51% Catholic, Jewish, or JEWISH 3% something else? OTHER CHRISTIAN 8% OTHER NON-CHRISTIAN 1% ATHEIST/AGNOSTIC 1% NONE/DON'T KNOW 6% SENT BY: XEROX Telecopier 7017: 2-22-91 :12:36PM ; NRCC- 4566216:# 4 49. of the following types of work, which one best describes what the head of household does? (READ LIST) SELF-EMPLOYED 15% WHITE COLLAR 22% BLUE COLLAR 19% GOVERNMENT WORKER 5% EDUCATOR 5% FARMER 1% STUDENT 2% HOMEMAKER 2% RETIRED 20% UNEMPLOYED 4% OTHER (SPECIFY) 3% DON'T KNOW (DO NOT READ) 2% 50. Which of these statements best describes how you have usually voted in past elections? (READ LIST, ROTATE TOP TO BOTTOM, BOTTOM TO TOP) MOSTLY REPUBLICAN 17% A FEW MORE REPUBLICANS THAN DEMOCRATS 18% A FEW MORE DEMOCRATS THAN REPUBLICANS 23% MOSTLY DEMOCRAT 30% INDEPENDENT/THE MAN (DO NOT READ) 7% DON'T KNOW/REFUSED (DON'T READ) 6% 51. When thinking about politics and government, do you consider yourself to be. (READ LIST, ROTATE TOP TO BOTTOM, BOTTOM TO TOP) VERY CONSERVATIVE 6% SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE 49% SOMEWHAT LIBERAL 29% VERY LIBERAL 10% MODERATE (DO NOT READ) 3% DON'T KNOW/REFUSED (DON'T READ) 2% SENT BY: XEROX Telecopier 7017; 2-22-91 :12:36PM ; NRCC- 4566216;# 5 52. Sex (BY OBSERVATION) MALE 48% FEMALE/NO OUTSIDE EMPLOYMENT..278 (IF FEMALE. ASK:) And, are FEMALE/WORKS OUTSIDE THE HOME.25% you employed outside the home? THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON K Date: March 4, 1991 FOR: GOVERNOR SUNUNU FROM: ED ROGERS Action Your Comment Let's Talk XXX FYI See pages 2-3. Paid THE CHIEF of STAFF has seen MEMORANDUM TO: NORM CUMMINGS. JILL JACKSON, JIM NATHANSON FROM: JOHN LONG FEBRUARY J 1991 DATE: RE: DUPONT ACTIVITY While in Delaware this past week I picked up information concerning Pete DuPont's organization. -The PAC is called the Committee for Republican Leadership. --The PAC is chaired by Glenn Kenton, who was chairman of DuPont' $ presidential campaign. --Steve Meyers is the chief fundraiser for the PAC. He was finance director for the presidential campaign. --Sources within the PAC have said that it's primary purpose is grass roots organization. However, all organizational efforts have been put on the backburner until the PAC can raise $750,000. Only after reaching this goal will any field work begin. --People within Delaware say that it was DuPont's intention to use this as a serious 92 presidential vehicle, however, the war has taken the steam out of it. They expect he will continue to use the PAC as a presidential organizational tool, but his eyes are on 1996. --Attached is a copy of the prospectus the PAC distributes, along with a copy of his remarks to CPAC '91. COMMITTEE FOR REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP P.O. Box 1300 Wilmington, DE 19899 (302)651-7804 Remarks by: PETE DU PONT Chairman Committee for Republican Leadership CPAC '91 18th ANNUAL CONSERVATIVE POLITICAL ACTION CONFERENCE February 9, 1991 Washington, D.C. Thank you very much. I'm delighted to be here, and particularly delighted to see so many friends, so many allies, and so many that I hope to call friends in the future. I feel that I am among kinsmen. Ours is not a kinship of blood, nor of race, nor of region. Ours is a kinship of faith -- faith in the future, faith in conservative principles, faith in ideas, and above all, faith in the idea of America. We forged this kinship through many battles -- and as I look around this room I see faces that remind me of every one. We have suffered some defeats, but we have savored some glorious victories. My friends, when the Berlin Wall fell, it gave way to the pressure we conservatives have been exerting for thirty years! My friends, the message of freedom has reached East Berlin, and Prague, and Warsaw, and Budapest, and Managua, but it hasn't yet penetrated Berkeley, or Cambridge, the upper West Side of Manhattan, or parts of Capitol Hill. We still have our work cut out for us. Part of that work is being done in the Persian Gulf today. When Saddam Hussein's tanks rolled into Kuwait, he presented a challenge to the region, a challenge to the world community, and a challenge to the United States of America. It was a rude shock to those who had solemnly declared a golden age of peace. And it was a harsh reminder that while we are transcending communism, we have not yet repealed evil. Benjamin Disraeli one said, "Success is the child of audacity and constancy of purpose." George Bush, to his credit, and to America's credit, has shown both throughout this crisis. President Bush has appealed to the best that is America -- the willingness to do what is right and necessary in the world, and not just what is convenient or easy. This doesn't mean that we will now field armies to thwart every thug who crosses a border. It does not mean that the United States is the world cop. But it does mean that when it is in America's national interest, America will protect its future. At the same time, history will show, the Democratic Party again proved its timidity and weak-mindedness. Perhaps some were sincere in believing that sanctions would work. But I think the American people know that the Democratic Party has become the "peace at any price" party -- that ducking their heads in the sand is still a Vietnam reflex, and that in their hearts they don't believe that America should assert her interests abroad. But what about us? All of us are conservatives. Most of us 1 are Republicans. I doubt that any of us feel confident that the leadership of the Democratic Party will ever let it be a reliable vehicle for conservative change. But how many of us are fully confident that the Republican Party and its leadership can be counted upon--reliably--to serve as the political apparatus of the conservative cause? The liberals have captured the Democratic Party, and that is the donkey's problem. But have we conservatives nailed down the Republican Party? I am a conservative. I am a Republican. But I, like many of you, have wondered what my Party's leaders were doing last Fall. Let me be blunt. President Bush should have shown the same "constancy of purpose" on the budget that he has shown to Iraq. And that constancy of purpose is even more important here at home because the foreign policy of the left is not in danger of becoming the foreign policy of the United States. On the other hand, liberal policies have come to dominate our domestic life, and will continue to do so until the Republican leadership regains its compass and returns the Party to conservative roots. The President, perhaps out of a misplaced respect for the power of his old colleagues in Congress, has let the conservative standard fall. And without the anti-tax banner flying high over Republican headquarters three things happen. First, the nation's conservative majority finds itself without a political party to advance its cause. Second, the Republican Party finds itself without a reason for being. And, third, the country finds itself governed by the left. Political parties are but empty shells available to be filled by people with aspirations for their democracy. Tonight, I want to talk to you about making sure that the Republican Party continues to be filled by conservative aspirations, conservative ideas and conservative leaders. The 1980s were the beginning of what can be an economic triumph for the United States. Ronald Reagan's tax cuts led to the creation of twenty million new jobs, nearly eighty consecutive months of economic growth, and the creation of five million new businesses. Families of all income levels were better off at the end of the decade than at the beginning. And far from causing deficits, tax cuts caused revenue growth: revenues increased 76 percent over the decade, prices only 43 percent. There was every reason to continue the principles that were producing the unprecedented growth and opportunity Americans deserve. But, there the President faltered. When George Bush reversed those golden words "no new taxes" he surrendered the charter of the Republican Party. 2 The press has misunderstood the battle over taxes. It is far more than a dispute over the best way to balance the books -- though, as a matter of fact, we do know that cutting taxes creates growth which in turn brings in more money to the treasury. But the battle over taxes is more--it is a struggle for power. It is a struggle between liberals who haven't the least idea how to create growth and opportunity, and conservatives who know how easily those gains can be erased. It is a struggle over who will speak for those who pay the taxes and carry the rifles and bear the burdens. Will the American people take back control over their own lives, or will we roll over and let ourselves be governed by principles that we do not support? If the American people perceive that the Republican Party talks about controlled spending and low taxes on the stump, but then huddles in private with the liberals in Washington to contrive business-as-usual tax and spending increases, the Republican Party will lose all credibility. And it will deserve to. Consider the example of Richard Darman's 1992 budget. It is the predictable result of Republican's allowing taxes to rise in last October's budget deal. Now spending will rise--in fact to 25 percent of the nation's gross national product. One dollar in four will now cycle through Washington. If that was the opening bid in the budget game, imagine what the final agreement will be next September. If we permit the Republican Party to embrace a budget that consumes a larger share of our economy than any budget since World War II, we should be ashamed. The Darman budget is not our budget. It was only by adhering to the values of the conservative majority -- low taxes, limited government intrusion into our lives, respect for the family, the sanctity of life and traditional values -- that the Republican Party earned the trust of the people. And it is only by sticking to those principles that Republicans will keep that trust. The Republican Party will not win by saying that it is appalled by those on the left unless it makes it equally clear that it stands steadfast with us on the right. Two of those Republican leaders have recently tried to diminish the importance of principles in the future of the Republican Party. Clayton Yeutter told the Republican National Committee moments after he was confirmed as its chairman that ideologues were okay, he supposed, but they seldom accomplish much. And Newt Gingrich, a dear friend of mine, who now has the very important post of Chairman of GOPAC as well as moonlighting someplace else, Newt actually told this very audience on Thursday, 3 and I quote, "It is a huge disservice to America when conservatives spend 60-80% of their time fighting over the level of perfection in their own party.' Well, Clayton, but I would take the accomplishments of Ronald Reagan the idealogue over those of Jimmy Carter the technocrat any day of the week. And Newt, Ronald Reagan said it best when he told us, and I paraphrase, don't paint in pale pastels, we must display our vision in the boldest colors if we are to succeed. Conservatives are not demanding perfection, Newt, we are trying to avoid drowning in a sea of baby blue. That is why a group of us--including Newt, I might add-- have formed the Committee for Republican Leadership. Our platform is clear. It is the Republican Party's platform of 1988--a brilliant compendium of conservative wisdom. Our agenda is simple. We want the Republican Party to be America's conservative Party, America's anti-tax party. That is what the words "Republican Leadership" have meant for a decade and that is what they must continue to mean in the future. Our first task is to conduct a Campaign Against Tax Increases. It will have two objectives. First, we are going to counter the propaganda that can kill us if left unanswered. We are going to fight back with the facts. And if anyone believes that the Republican Party is better off as something other than the anti-tax party, we are going to show them the error of their ways. How are we going to do this? The best way I know how. With the help of lots of people like you, we are going to raise enough money to buy enough advertising to give the American people the information they need. We are going to remind Americans who has been right and who has been wrong. And when we are done, Americans will be reassured that we began to follow that right path in the 1980s, although we have a long way to go. And when we are done, Republican leaders are going to be reminded that staying on that path is not only the key to prosperity for people, it is the key to political success for candidates. If the Committee for Republican Leadership can help keep our minds above the fog of phony history, I am confident the conservative majority in America can put the Republican Party back where it belongs. Peter Drucker once said "governments do only two things well: Wage war and inflate the currency." For conservatives, the 4 challenge is to get government to do one thing more: stand aside! During the 1980s, conservatives began the job of getting government out of the people's way. We began the job of identifying the Republican Party with individual freedom and opportunity -- and the prosperity those policies created. But that perception of Republicans as the party for the American majority, the party that provides prosperity and creates opportunity for all Americans, is soft. If Republicans capitulate now by agreeing to tax increases and huge spending increases, the promising profile of the Republican Party in the 1980s will soften like clay that was never exposed to the fire of a kiln. The Party apparatus which should be the political extension of the conservative movement will instead slide back into its old image of country club Republicanism or simply fade into the mists of time with no one remembering why it was there. So the first task of the Committee for Republican Leadership is to help Americans face the 1990s with a clearer understanding of the 1980s than is being offered by Bryant Gumbel. You know, conservatives must keep working together and helping each other discover what works and what doesn't, what is right and what isn't. We need to do this not only because the other side so insidiously muddles the truth, but also because sound conservative ideas are not as straightforward or easily understood as a policy of grants, a program of subsidies or a promise of a free lunch. Baking bread is just more complicated that dispensing slices. I am a living example of the value of education. My degree in political reality came from undergraduate and post-graduate work as the Governor of Delaware starting in 1977. My friend Jack Kemp told you yesterday that the problem with conservative Republicans in the 1970s was that we talked alot about taxes, but never did anything about them. Well, Jack knows Washington. But, as Mr. Diddley would say, Jack "don't know" Delaware! When I arrived in the Governor's office in 1977, our State faced catastrophe. Twenty-two tax increases had been enacted in five years; in four of the five the budget was in deficit. Unemployment was the second highest in the nation; our credit rating was the lowest. Oh, and our income tax rates were the highest of all the fifty states. Advice was plentiful. Deficits? Raise taxes, the liberals said. High unemployment? Expand government programs, the press advised. As for those high marginal tax rates, the Democrats assured us they only impacted the wealthy. 5 We chose none of the above. Instead, we tried a different and unstylish concept that seemed right: constitutionally limit spending, then reduce tax rates, and economic growth will generate revenue, jobs and opportunity. It did. Tax rates were reduced, once, twice, three times. Revenues climbed. Jobs increased by 25 percent. Welfare rolls decreased by 35 percent. State spending, adjusted for inflation, never grow for eight years. Deficits vanished and never reappeared. The theory may have been untested in 1977, its adoption may have been driven more by ideology than experience, but it worked. And we learned. And now we understand. So opposition to tax increases is the first agenda of the Committee for Republican Leadership but it is not the only agenda for conservatives, as you know so well. Conservatives know what works and yet our ideas are not controlling the government the way they should. Our marketplace idealogy has triumphed as we have rolled back communism in Eastern Europe. But we have yet to roll back liberalism at home. And wherever the liberal minority has gained control of the debate, disaster has followed. Look at the Clean Air Act, conceived by people who would not recognize a market if they fell over one -- and pushed to passage by people who showed a breathtaking indifference to the truth. Congress itself commissioned a $500 million dollar, ten year study to examine the acid rain problem. Thirty thousand scientists worked on the research. Three hundred scientists wrote the report. And what did they find? Acid rain is not a significant environmental problem. And what did the liberals in Congress do? They ignored their own report, and passed the Clean Air Act, which will cost us $4 billion a year. Four billion dollars to fix a problem that scarcely exists. How did this happen? Simple. The Republican Party leadership starting with the bureaucracy and ending on the Hill was not serving as the political apparatus of the conservative majority. They were on the other team. Add to that the propaganda campaign to persuade us that the 1980s fouled the environment like none before it and our cause was doomed. It did not matter that the propaganda was erroneous. It did not matter that the air and the water became cleaner during the 80s. It did not matter that the honest environmental challenges facing America are best solved by market solutions. What mattered was that our cause had no political apparatus worth the name to champion it. So the majority loses and the country pays. We must not allow this to happen. The conservatives and the Republican Party must be connected at the heart and made inseparable. It is, indeed, the only way we conservatives will win 6 fights over policy and it is the only way we Republicans will win enough elections across America to truly govern. And let's be realistic. We can meet in wonderful conferences like this forever. We can even elect Republican presidents forever. But we will not start governing America until our conservative majority becomes the governing majority across this land. We owe it to our country to make sure that the conservative majority seizes back the Republican Party. Because the battle of ideas is more than cerebral exercise. There are real lives at stake. You need only look at our nation's cities to see the full consequences of liberal government. They have been nothing less than tragic. Misguided social engineering has created generations of Americans who live and die on welfare, never knowing the satisfactions of a job and a piece of the American dream. Those same liberal policies are also systematically undermining the family, bussing our children to distant schools, and ushering criminals back onto our streets. We have better ideas. We would start at the heart of the problem. We would replace welfare with work. We would replace failing education monopolies with competition and choice and jam the revolving door of liberal justice. We would shrivel bloated bureaucracies and grow enterprise in its stead. And, finally, we would protect urban neighhorhoods from the government art of John Frohnmayer. And perhaps as important as anything else, we would establish the distinction between fairness and playing favorites. Some now claim that "civil rights" is the privilege of being granted a job or a college education merely on the grounds of membership in a minority population. But we are not a nation of groups, we are a nation of individuals. When Martin Luther King Jr. led his great crusade for justice, he didn't ask that black people be judged as black, he demanded that each of us be judged by "the content of our character" and not "the color of our skin." We agree. And when we govern, that will be the rule. We will frame a future that builds upon the soundness of the American heart and the creativity of the American mind. We will build upon our strengths, moral and technological. The deadly accuracy of the Patriot missiles has done more than just protect the homes of Israeli children. It has destroyed the logic of Ted Kennedy's "star wars" derision and damaged the liberals' Luddite school of defense preparedness. We will keep faith with those who are still struggling for freedom. Today, in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, and throughout the Soviet Union, the truncheon of totalitarianism falls again on the backs of the oppressed. TIME magazine's "Man of the Decade," 7 the Nobel committee's peace laureate, is unleashing the KGB. While smiling in the direction of the West, Mikhail Gorbachev is confiscating newspapers, closing down television towers and opening fire on those who march for freedom. The Nobel Peace Prize, a symbol of the West's self-delusion about Gorbachev, is blood-stained now. But my friends, there is a way to restore its luster. There is a way to restore the meaning and symbolism of a prize in the cause of peace. The Nobel Committee should rescind the award to Gorbachev and award it to its rightful owner -- Ronald Wilson Reagan. But we would also move beyond symbolism. We would formally state what the United States has always maintained quietly: We would recognize the independent governments of the Baltics. They were Hitler's gift to Stalin. We must not stand silent as Stalin's heirs again assert his fraudulent title. If Gorbachev brutally imposes the the terror of totalitarianism upon innocent people aspiring for freedom, he must not do so with American grants, American loan guarantees or American rationalizations. We must stand, we will stand on freedom's side. My friends, I said at the outset that we had our work cut out for us, and we do. Conservatives must always be more than critics, we must be leaders. And we must become more effective than ever. We must win more than debates, we must win more than converts, we must win even more than the Presidency. We must win enough elections to govern America as she wishes to be governed. We conservatives, we Republicans can make that happen. But we conservatives cannot prevail, if we put party ahead of principle. And we Republicans cannot win unless we keep the banners of conservatism flying. Thank you very much. 8 CALIFORNIA CABLE *16 CALIFORNIA POLL: GOOD GRADES FOR BUSH -- QUAYLE'S A "DRAG" The California Poll, conducted 2/7-12 by the Field Institute, surveyed 977 registered voters (444 Dems, 423 GOPers, 110 others) ; margin of error +/- 3.2%. (Field release, 2/26). BUSH RE-ELECT REAGAN RE-ELECT (3/83) YES 58% 39% NO 28 48 JOB PERFORMANCE BUSH QUAYLE REAGAN (3/83) Excellent/Good 66% 25% 36% Fair 21 30 33 Poor/Very Poor 13 29 30 INCLINATION TO VOTE GOP IN THE 1992 ELECTION WHEN BUSH IS PAIRED WITH VARIOUS POSSIBLE VP RUNNING MATES MORE LESS NO DIFFERENCE/ INCLINED INCLINED NO OPINION Baker 50% 22% 28% Dole 44 27 29 Powell 44 24 32 Cheney 41 24 35 Wilson 32 41 27 Quayle 21 56 23 "Moreover, by a 65% to 30% margin [CA] voters still wish Bush had picked another [GOPer] to be his running mate in 1988. This proportion registering dissatisfaction with Bush's selection of Quayle as his VP has actually increased over time, from a 56% dissatisfied to 35% satisfied ratio found in [1/89] when Bush and Quayle were first assuming their White House duties" (Field release, 2/26). S.F. CHRONICLE notes Californians, "strongly inclined" to support Bush's reelection, "express deep and growing dissatisfaction" with Quayle: "Quayle, who has been designated as the administration's political point man in California, continues to decline in popularity, despite a large number of visits to the state." Pollster Mervin Field: "There is one dark cloud hanging over Bush's rosy prospects for re-election, and that is the California electorate's low regard for his ostensible running mate in 1992." Field cited numbers showing Californians less likely to back Bush if Wilson was his VP: "It may be a pat on the back for Wilson. He just got elected governor, they have high expectations of him as governor and with the state in critical condition, they don't want to send him back to Washington right now" (Jerry Roberts, CHRONICLE, 2/26). 02/27/91 15:18 FAX 313 350 3023 MARKETSTRATEGIES 0 003/007 TABLE OF CONTENTS THE COUNTRY AND THE PRESIDENT: BASIC PERCEPTIONS 1 PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR THE WAR 2 GOALS OF THE WAR 3 02/27/91 15:18 FAX 313 350 3023 MARKETSTRATEGIES LV.) 004/007 THE COUNTRY AND THE PRESIDENT: BASIC PERCEPTIONS Which ONE of these three statements do you most agree with? Feb. 26 March 1991 1990 It is important for the United States to be the NUMBER ONE economic power in the world. 38% 32% It is important for the United States to be ONE OF SEVERAL world economic powers. 59 63 It is NOT important for the Un ted States to be a world economic power. 2 3 Don't know 1 Refused/NA 1 * Which ONE of these three statements do you most agree with? Feb. 26 March 1991 1990 It is important for the United States to be the NUMBER ONE military power in the world. 54% 38% It is important for the United States to be ONE OF SEVERAL world military powers. 42 55 It is NOT important for the United States to be a world military power. 3 5 Don't know 1 1 Refused/NA * : THE COUNTRY AND THE PRESIDENT: BASIC PERCEPTIONS Desert Storm U.S. National (RNC) January 16 - February 26, 1991 1 02/27/91 15:19 FAX 313 350 3023 MARKETSTRATEGIES 0 005/007 PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR THE WAR President Bush has said that the U.S. wants an UNARMED withdrawal of Iraqi forces. If Iraqi forces are retreating with their weapons, do you think we should continue to attack them until they lay down their arms, or should the U.S. let them retreat WITH their arms SO the war can come to an end? Feb. 26 1991 Continue attacking 84% Let them retreat 13 Don't know 3 Refused/NA * President Bush is insisting that Iraq must accept all the United Nation's resolutions including giving up it's claim to Kuwait and agreeing to pay Kuwait for damages it did to Kuwait. Do you think President Bush is right to in sist that Iraq agree to these conditions, or should he drop these conditions so the war can come to an end? Feb. 26 1991 Right to insist Iraq agree to these conditions 87% Should drop these conditions 9 Don't know 4 Refused/NA -- PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR THE WAR Desert Storm U.S. National (RNC) January 16 - February 26. 1991 2 02/27/91 15:19 FAX 313 350 3023 MARKETSTRATEGIES 0067007 GOALS OF THE WAR Overall, do you think the U.S. and its allies are or are not the clear winners in the war against Iraq. or is it too early to tell? Feb. Feb. 26 25 1991 1991 Are 56% 44% Are not 1 2 Too early to tell 41 52 Don't know 2 * Refused/NA -- 1 President Bush has said that WE have three objectives in the Persian Gulf: the withdrawal of all Iraqi forces from Kuwait, restoring the legitimate government of Kuwait, and preserving the security and stability of the region. As part of or in addition to those objectives, do you think each of the following also should or should not be objectives of our policy in the Persian Gulf? Should DK/ Should Not Ref. Removing Saddam Husseln from power. February 26, 1991 80% 18 3 February 24, 1991 80% 18 2 February 18, 1991 79% 17 3 Destroying most of Iraq's military capability. February 26, 1991 72% 24 4 February 24, 1991 70% 25 5 February 18, 1991 75% 21 5 GOALS OF THE WAR Desert Storm U.S. National (RNC) January 16 - February 26, 1991 3 02/27/91 15:19 FAX 313 350 3023 MARKETSTRATEGIES 4 007/007 (If should) If Iraq withdraws is forces from Kuwait or Is driven out of Kuwait, do you think we should or should not continue the war until Saddam Hussein is removed from power? Feb. Feb. Feb. 26 24 18 1991 1991 1991 Should 58% 47% 49% Should not 19 27 25 Don't know 2 4 4 Refused/NA 1 * -- 80% 79% 79% (If should) If Iraq withdraws its forces from Kuwait or is driven out of Kuwait, do you think we should or should not continue the war until we have destroyed most of Iraq's military capability? Feb. Feb. Feb. 26 24 18 1991 1991 1991 Should 51% 39% 36% Should not 19 26 35 Don't know 2 5 4 Refused/NA * --- -- 72% 69% 75% GOALS OF THE WAR Desert Storm U.S. National (RNC) January 16 - February 26, 1991 4 P.2/14 MAR 18 '91 09:26 Marist Institute for Public Opinion Marist College Poughkeepsie, N.Y. 12601 (914) 471.8661 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Contact: Dr. Lee M. Miringoff Marist College (914) 471-8661 This Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll reports: Polling 1. Governor Mario Cuomo's job performance rating has declined in New York State. Governor Cuomo currently receives an excellent or good score from 48.1% of the New York electorate. Among thuse who express on opinion on Governor Counto's performance in office, 6.9% rate the job he is doing as excellent, 41.2% as good, 25.1% as fair, and 26.8% as poor. In a similar poll conducted in February. 1990, 64.2% of New York voters approved of the Job Mario Cuomo was doing as Governor. in addition 10 the overall decline in Governor Cuomo's approval rating. the percentage of voters who rate him as doing a poor job has risen from 12.1% in the previous poll to 26.8% at present. 2. Negotiations over this year's budget have not gone unnoticed by New York voters. Although the New York electorate continues to express a variety of concerns when asked what they believe is the number one problem facing the state, the state budget is currently the number one issue in the opinion of the state's voters. New Yorkers also cite cutbacks In programs and services, taxes, unemployment, poverty, crime, and the drug problem as important concerns. MAR 18 '91 09:26 P.3/14 3. The views of many New Yorkers on spending priorities are at odds with the direction of this year's budget negotiations. In assessing state budget priorities, most of the state's votors prefer a tax increase to cuts in social programs and services or the layoff of state workers. 51.5% of the electoraic prefer a tax increase in order to reduce the state budget deficit compared to 20.6% of the state's voters who prefer cuts in social programs and services, and 20.1% of the electorate who prefer the layoff of state workers. In addition, 70.8% of New Yorkers believe that it is very likely and 20.4% of the state's voters believe it is somewhat likely that state taxes will have 10 be raised this year compared to 3.9% of the electorate who believes that it is not very likely and 4.1% of New Yorkers who do not believe it is likely at all. If Now York State needs to raise taxes in order to close the state budget deficit, New Yorkers favor an increase in the state tax on alcohol and tobacco by 68.7% to 29.7%, an income tax increase only for upper income individuals by 65.3% to 32.2%, and an Increase in the state tax rate for corporations by 63.0% to 32.4%. The statc's voters oppose an Income tax increase for all state Laxpayers by 31.0% to 66.1%, an increase in the state sales tax by 30.7% to 67.0%, and a ten cent a gallon increase for gasoline by 27.4% to 70.8%. 4. The public's spending priorities are further reflected in the view that the majority of New Yorkers are willing to pay an added $100 a year in state taxes to fund education for the mentally retarded and people with handicaps, housing for the homeless, the care of AIDS patients, public schools at the clementary. secondary, and high school levels, and New York's roads and bridges. 69.2% would support an added $100 in state taxes to fund education for the mentally retarded and 2 MAR 18 '91 09:26 P.4/14 people with handicaps; 64.1% would pay for increases in funding for housing for the homeless; 59.5% would support increased care for AIDS patients; 53.3% would pay for increased support for public schools at the elementary. secondary, and high school levels: and, 51.9% would be willing to pay an added $100 a year in state taxes for New York's roads and bridges. S. In assessing the condition of New York's economy, 34.4% of New Yorkers think that the state is currently in a recession compared to 12.7% of the state's voters who do not think so. In addition, 49.6% of the electorate think that the state is currently in an economic depression compared to 45.5% who do not think so. The state of the economy is also reflected in the public's view of their own economic circumstances. 51.6% of New Yorkers indicate that it is harder for them to make ends meet than it was a year age compared to 5.9% of the state's voters who report that it is easier to make ends meet. In addition, 9.3% of the electorate believes that they are facing similar circumstances as last year and are dissatisfied compared to 29.0% who indicate that their situation is unchanged and are natisfied. Overall, when asked about the way things are going in New York State, 20.3% of Now Turkers currently believe that thing are sping in the right direction, 67.2% of the state's voters believe that things are going in the wrong direction, and 11.8% of the electorate are unsure. 6. In the contest for the U.S. Senate sent in 1992, 32.4% of Now Yorkers definitely plan to vote for Incumbent Alfonse D'Amato compared to 31.8% of the state's voters who definitely plan to vote against him. 21.3% of the electorate reports that it depends on who runs against him, and 14.5% of New Yorkers are unsure. 3 MAR 18 '91 09:27 P.5/14 Republican Alfonse D'Amato currently trails Democrat Robert Abrams. D'Amato and potential challenger Elizabeth Holtzman are closely matched. D'Amato is shead of Mark Green and Geraldine Ferraro. Regarding the potential Democratic challengers to Senator D'Amato, Geraldine Ferraro, Robert Abrams, and Elizabeth Holtzman are best known by Democratic voters, followed by Mark Green, Gail Shaffer and Robert Mrazek. Abrams and Holtzman have the best favorable/unfavorable ratios among the better known Democrats. 7. In terms of the job performance ratings for New York's two U.S. Senators, Senator Allonse D'Amato currently receives an excellent or good grade from 42.1% of the New York electorate. This result is statistically unchanged from the 42.3% approval rating be received last September. Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan currently has a 59.8% approval rating compared to 61.7% who rated him positively in a similar poll conducted last September. This result does not represent a statistically significant change in his approval rating. ..... This survey was conducted on February 28th and March 4th, 1991. 583 registered voters were interviewed at random in proportion to the voter registration in each county in New York State, All Interviews were conducted by telephone. The results are statistically significant at +4%. The margin for error increases for cross- tabulations. All Marist College polls are done as a public service. Interested individuals may contact Marist College for further information. 4 MAR 18 '91 09:27 P.6/14 New Yorkers Assess: Cuomo, D'Amato, Maynihan Performance in Office The Economy and Budget Priorities D'Amato Re-election Prospects March, 1991 Additional Data* Nature of Sample: 583 New York State Registered Voters Race Party White 86.6% Democrat 46.5% Black 9.7% Republican 33.2% Hispanic 2.4% Non-Enrolled 17.9% Asian 1.1% Conservative 1.1% Other 0.2% Liberal 0.6% Other 0.7% Religion Ideology Protestant 31.7% Liberal 30.3% Catholic 47.1% Moderate 40.5% Jewish 11.9% Conservative 29.2% Other 9.4% Sex (weighted) Region Male 44.9% Upstate 43.1% Female 55.1% New York City 33.8% Suburbs 23.1% *Perecntages may not equal 100% due to rounding. 5 MAR 18 '91 09:28 P.7/14 Governor Maria Cuomo's Performance Rating Excellent Good Fair Poor March 1991 6.9% 41.2% 25.1% 26.8% February 1990 10.0% 54.2% 23.8% 12.1% September 1989 15.4% 48.6% 27.0% 9.0% April 1989 7.3% 50.7% 23.1% 18.8% September 1983 17.2% 51.7% 23.0% 8.1% January 1988 25.4% 51.7% 18.8% 4.1% October 1987 22.9% 49.9% 20.1% 7.1% June 1987 20.3% 52.0% 21.8% 5.9% September 1986 18.9% 50.6% 23.4% 7.1% June 1986 19.4% 51.2% 23.4% 5.9% January 1986 15.7% 52.7% 25.0% 6.6% October 1985 16.0% 52.1% 25.4% 6.6% June 1985 18.4% 51.2% 22.3% 8.1% January 1985 15.1% 49.3% 26.5% 9.1% September 1984 21.9% 44.2% 25.9% 8.0% June 1984 8.3% 50.7% 32.3% 8.6% January 1984 11.6% 49.0% 31.5% 8.0% May 1983 11.6% 45.4% 34.1% 8.8% Excellent Good Fair Poor Region Upstate March 1991 6.0% 37.9% 20.7% 35.3% February 1990 5.6% 59.8% 22.3% 12.3% New York City March 1991 11.0% 44.1% 28.1% 16.8% February 1990 14.0% 51.4% 23.3% 11.2% Suburbs March 1991 2.6% 42.8% 28.9% 25.6% February 1990 12.0% 48.6% 26.6% 12.8% 6 MAR 18 '91 09:28 P.8/14 Governor Cuomo's Performance Rating (Continued) Excellent Good Fair Poor Party Democrat March 1991 10.7% 45.0% 28.3% 16.1% February 1990 12.5% 58.3% 20.5% 8.7% Republican March 1991 3.1% 36.7% 19.8% 40.1% February 1990 4.7% 50.6% 25.1% 19.5% Non-Enrolled March 1991 5.3% 37.1% 27.1% 30.5% February 1990 11.9% 51.1% 31.2% 5.9% Ideology Liberal March 1991 11.1% 49.9% 25.6% 13.4% February 1990 16.0% 60.0% 19.3% 4.6% Moderate March 1991 4.4% 42.6% 24.3% 28.7% February 1990 8.6% 54.1% 29.6% 7.8% Conservative March 1991 4.8% 28.8% 26.4% 40.0% February 1990 7.1% 48.0% 22.1% 22.8% Religion Protestant March 1991 7.9% 36.8% 23.2% 32.2% February 1990 5.9% 57.5% 23.8% 12.9% Catholic March 1991 6.7% 39.7% 25.1% 28.6% February 1990 8.8% 52.8% 25.2% 13.3% Jewish March 1991 9.4% 56.8% 19.8% 13.9% February 1990 21.2% 49.6% 22.4% 6.9% Race White March 1991 6.8% 39.6% 24.3% 29.2% February 1990 9.2% 53.7% 24.2% 12.9% Black March 1991 13.7% 50.2% 27.6% 8.4% February 1990 18.3% 52.1% 25.8% 3.8% Gender Male March 1991 6.9% 35.0% 22.1% 36.0% February 1990 8.7% 53.9% 23.5% 13.8% Female March 1991 6.9% 46.3% 27.6% 19.2% February 1990 11.0% 54.4% 23.9% 10.7% 7 MAR 18 '91 09:29 P.9/14 MARIST COLLEGE TEL: 914-471-3557 Mar 15,91 10:47 No.001 P.09 "What do you consider 10 be the number one problem now facing New York State/* March September February 1991 1990 1990 Economy 5.1% 8.8% 5.3% Jobs 10.6% 3.0% 2.9% Taxes 13.4% 14.6% 13.2% The State Budget 21.7% 8.4% 8.1% Cutbacks in 15.3% n.a n.a Prog. & Services (Including poverty, homelessness, & education) Poverty (including 9.2% 8.3% 15.5% homelessness) Education 1.3% 3.3% 3.1% Infrastructure 0.8% 1.3% 1.0% Environment 1.5% 4.5% 5.4% Crime 8.4% 24.7% 6.4% Drugs 8.0% 13.9% 32.6% Race Relations 0.5% 0.8% 0.3% Other 3.2% 5.9% 2.3% Unsure 1.1% 2.5% 4.0% "In order to reduce the state budget deficit would you prefer one, 8 tax Increase, two. cuts in social programs and services. or three, the layoff of state workers?" Increase Cut Layoff All Taxes Programs Workers None Three Unsure March 1991 51.5% 20.6% 20.1% 3.4% 0.2% 4.2% "New York State is currently facing a budget deficit. From what you have seen or read recently, how likely do you think it is that state taxes will have to be raised this year: very likely. somewhat likely. not very likely, or not likely at all?" Very Somewhat Not Very Not Likely Likely Likely Likely at All Unsure March 1991 70.8% 20.4% 3.9% 4.1% 0.8% MAR 18 '91 09:29 P. 10/14 "If New York State needs to raise taxes in order to close the state budget deficit, would you favor or oppose each of the following:* Favor Oppose Unsure Increase in the 30.7% 67.0% 2.3% NYS sales tax Income tax Increase for 31.0% 66.1% 2.9% all state taxpayers Income tax increase 65.3% 32.2% 2.5% only for upper income individuals A ten cent A gallon 27.4% 70.8% 1.8% increase for gasoline Increase in state tax 68.7% 29.7% 1.5% on alcohol & tobacco Increase in the state 63.0% 32.4% 4.6% tax rate for corporations "Would you pay an added $100 a year in state taxes to increase funding for:* Would pay Would not pay added $100 added $100 Unsure Public schools 53,3% 42.7% 4.0% Education of the 69.2% 25.8% 5.0% mentally retarded & people with handicaps Housing for the 64.1% 29.2% 6.6% homeless Care for patients 59.5% 36.3% 4.3% with AIDS New York's roads 51.9% 45.6% 2.5% & bridges "Do you think that New York State is currently in a recession, or not?" Yes No Unsure March 1991 84.4% 12.7% 2.9% 9 MAR 18 '91 09:29 P.11/14 "Do you think that New York State is currently in an economic depression, or not? Yes No Unsure March 1991 49.6% 45.5% 4.9% "Thinking about your own economic circumstances, do you find it caster to make ends meet then you did a year age, harder 10 make ends meet, or is it about the same?" (Those who responded "3bout the same" were asked the fullow-up question: "Is that a good thing or a bad thing?") Same Same Easier Good Same Bad Harder Unsure March 1991 5.9% 29.0% 3.5% 9.3% 51.6% 0.7% "In general, thinking about the way things are going In New York State, do you feel things are going in the right direction, or that things are going in the wrong direction?" Right Wrong Direction Direction Unsure March 1991 20.3% 67.9% 11.8% October 1990 24.7% 59.4% 15.8% "If Alfonse D'Amato runs for re-ciection to the US Senate In 1992, do you definitely plan to vote for him, or do you definitely plan to vote against him?" Definitely Definitely Depends on Vote for Vote Against Who is Him Him Running Undecided March 1991 32.4% 31.8% 21.3% 14.5% "If the 1992 election for the US Senate was held today, who would you support if the candidates are Alfonse D'Amato the Republican. and Robert Abrams the Democrat?" Don't Know Enough About D'Amato Abrams Undecided Abrams March 1991 42.1% 46.7% 8.9% 2.4% 10 MAR 18 '91 09:30 P.12/14 "If the 1992 election for the US Senate was held today. who would you support if the candidates are Alfanse D'Amato the Republican, and Elizabeth Holtzman the Democrat?" Don't Know Enough About D'Amato Holtzman Undecided Holtzman March 1991 43.5% 41.6% 9.4% 5.5% "If the 1992 election for the US Sonate was hold today, who would you support if the candidates are Alfonse D'Amato the Republican, and Ocraldine Ferraro the Democrat?" Don't Know Enough About D'Amato Ferruro Undecided Forraro March 1991 53.2% 33.7% 11.4% 1.7% "If the 1992 election for the US Senate was held today, who would you support if the candidatos are Alfonse D'Amato the Republican, and Mark Green the Democrat?" Don't Know Enough About D'Amato Green Undecided Green March 1991 43.0% 30.8% 8.3% 17.9% "Picase tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of each of the following political figures. If you know & person but are unsure how to rate him, or if you have never heard of someone, please say so." (Registered Democrats only) Never Favorable Unfavorable Unsure Heard Robert Abrains 56.4% 9.6% 20.8% 13.2% Geraldine Ferraro 47.5% 33.1% 17.4% 2.0% Mark Green 27.1% 5.6% 13.7% 53.5% Elizabeth Holtzman 51.1% 16.2% 11.2% 21.5% Robert Mrazck 9.1% 5.4% 8.0% 77.5% Gail Shaffer 13.8% 4.9% 11.2% 70.1% 11 MAR 18 '91 09:30 P.13/14 Performance Ratings Don't Know/ Excellent Good Fair Poor Unsure D'Amato March 1991 7.8% 34.3% 32.8% 19.3% 5.5% September 1990 6.8% 35.5% 34.9% 14.7% 8.2% February 1990 2.8% 34.1% 36.4% 18.8% 7.9% September 1989 5.9% 35.6% 34.6% 15.1% 8.7% April 1989 8.5% 41.2% 30.0% 6.7% 13.5% September 1988 9.5% 47.3% 27.9% 8.0% 7.3% January 1988 11.5% 47.7% 25.6% 5.8% 9.4% October 1987 11.7% 49.5% 24.2% 7.0% 7.7% June 1987 11.5% 48.3% 27.9% 5.0% 7.3% September 1986 12.8% 49.8% 23.8% 6.3% 7.3% June 1986 13.8% 46.5% 23.0% 6.8% 10.0% January 1986 13.0% 44.1% 25.5% 6.8% 10.6% June 1985 8.9% 39.2% 31.0% 4.3% 16.6% January 1985 6.1% 37.6% 29.1% 6.7% 20.5% June 1984 7.5% 38.2% 30.9% 7,6% 15.8% January 1984 8.0% 37.3% 31.0% 7.3% 16.3% September 1983 5.2% 37.3% 31.1% 8.0% 18.3% June 1983 5.5% 36.6% 31.9% 7.1% 18.9% Don't Know/ Excellent Good Fair Poor Unsure Moynihan March 1991 13.5% 46.3% 26.3% 6.2% 7.6% September 1990 15.9% 45.8% 26.3% 5.5% 6.5% February 1990 12.4% 43,6% 27.9% 7.5% 8.5% September 1989 13.4% 40.1% 31.1% 4.2% 11.2% April 1989 12.3% 41,9% 27.2% 5.3% 13.0% September 1988 12.9% 42.3% 28.7% 5.6% 10.4% January 1988 14.2% 43.1% 25.1% 7.8% 9.9% October 1987 16.1% 44.3% 23.6% 6.3% 9.2% June 1987 13.3% 42.6% 26.5% 7.3% 10.4% September 1986 14.6% 39.5% 27.4% 5.7% 12.6% June 1986 16.2% 44.4% 22.7% 6.2% 10.5% January 1986 11.3% 44.3% 27.9% 6.3% 10.2% June 1985 10.0% 40.1% 26.6% 9.4% 13.9% January 1985 10.7% 41.4% 29.5% 6.4% 12.1% June 1984 11.1% 38.8% 29.5% 8.6% 12.1% January 1984 10.1% 37.0% 30.2% 9.7% 13.0% September 1983 8.9% 40.4% 30.2% 8.9% 11.6% June 1983 11.2% 38.4% 32.7% 7.7% 10.0% 12 P.14/14 MAR 18 '91 09:31 Don't Know/ Execllent Good Fair Poor Unsure Cuomo March 1991 6.9% 40.8% 24.9% 26.5% 0.9% February 1990 9.9% 53.7% 23.5% 12.0% 0.9% September 1989 15.1% 47.6% 26.5% 8.8% 2.0% April 1989 7.2% 49.8% 22.7% 18.5% 1.9% September 1988 16.9% 50.8% 22.7% 7.9% 1.7% January 1988 25.0% 50.9% 18.5% 4.0% 1.6% October 1987 22.6% 49.1% 19.7% 7.0% 1.7% June 1987 19.9% 51.0% 21.4% 5.8% 2.0% September 1986 18.6% 49.7% 23.0% 7.0% 1.8% June 1986 19.2% 50.5% 23.1% 5.8% 1.4% January 1986 13.3% 52.2% 24.7% 6.6% 1.0% October 1985 15.7% 51.1% 24.9% 6.5% 1.3% June 1985 18.0% 50.3% 21.9% 3.0% 1.8% January 1985 14.7% 48.0% 25.8% 8.8% 2.8% September 1984 21.1% 42.6% 23.0% 7.7% 3.6% June 1984 8.1% 49.1% 31.3% 8.3% 3.2% January 1984 11.1% 47.3% 30.4% 7.7% 3.5% June 1983 10.1% 39.5% 29.7% 7.7% 13.0% 13

nara / coll_gb-cos / doc

Polling (2 of 3) 1991 [3]

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sourceUrl	https://catalog.archives.gov/id/702497
contentType	document
identifierLocal	29169-003
collections	Records of the White House Office of the Chief of Staff to the President (George H. W. Bush Administration) John Sununu Issues Files
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