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John Sununu Issues Files
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Originally Processed With FOIA(s):
FOIA Number:
1998-0004-F[2]; 1999-0098-F; 1999-0163-F
S
FOIA
MARKER
This is not a textual record. This is used as an
administrative marker by the George Bush Presidential
Library Staff.
Record Group/Collection: George H.W. Bush Presidential Records
Collection/Office of Origin: Chief of Staff, White House Office of
Series:
Sununu, John, Files
Subseries:
Issues Files
OA/ID Number:
29169
Folder ID Number:
29169-005
Folder Title:
Polling (3 of 3) 1991 [2]
Stack:
Row:
Section:
Shelf:
Position:
G
15
25
3
7
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
Date: 10/30/91
8 TO:
Governor Sununu
FROM: DAVID M. CARNEY
Special Assistant to the President and
Director, Office of Poltical Affairs
I am sorry that you were unable to attend the
briefing in my office on October 29.
Neil Newhouse and Bill McInturff gave a very
interesting presentation on their recent
national survey (taken October 16-18) and
their work on new typologies. They are
trying to develop new typologies that are
more useful in targeting specific segments of
the population.
I hope you find the attached material useful.
PUBLIC OPINION
STRATEGIES
NATIONAL SURVEY BRIEFING
prepared for
WHITE HOUSE POLITICAL STAFF
October 16-18, 1991
PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES, LP
99 Canal Center Plaza
Alexandria, VA 22314
(703) 836-7655
FAX: 703-836-8117
RIGHT DIRECTION/WRONG TRACK
NATIONAL TREND
100%
79%
80%
55%
60%
58%
51%
55%
57%
60%
51%
40%
46%
39%
39%
39%
+
28%
29%
20%
26%
19%
0%
1/89 1/90 6/90 7/90 10/9012/90 1/91 2/91 3/91 4/91 6/91 7/91 10/91
RIGHT DIRECTION + WRONG TRACK
PUBLIC AND POS SURVEYS
RIGHT DIRECTION/WRONG TRACK:
GENERATION GAP
80%
68%
70%
70%
60%
61%
62%
58%
60%
50%
45%
42%
40%
33%
29%
31%
30%
26%
24%
19%
20%
10%
0%
TOTAL
18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
RIGHT DIRECTION
WRONG TRACK
PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES: 10/91
1988 PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT BY
"RIGHT DIRECTION/WRONG TRACK"
100%
80%
73%
68%
60%
40%
32%
27%
20%
0%
RIGHT DIRECTION
WRONG TRACK
BUSH VOTERS
DUKAKIS VOTERS
RIGHT DIRECTION/WRONG TRACK:
AREA OF THE COUNTRY
80%
68%
70%
63%
60%
60%
56%
56%
50%
40%
32%
34%
29%
30%
26%
24%
20%
10%
0%
TOTAL
NORTH
MID
SOUTH
WEST
EAST
WEST
RIGHT DIRECTION
WRONG TRACK
PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES: 10/91
RIGHT DIRECTION/WRONG TRACK:
BY 1988 VOTE RESULTS
80%
69%
70%
60%
61%
60%
57%
57%
50%
40%
33%
29%
30%
27%
29%
24%
20%
10%
0%
TOTAL
BUSH
BUSH
BELL-
DUKE
>60%
54%-60%
WETHER
WIN
RIGHT DIRECTION
WRONG TRACK
PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES: 10/91
1988 PRESIDENTIAL VOTE RESULTS BY STATE
BUSH
BUSH
BELL WETHER
"DUKAKIS"
GREATER THAN
54-60%
STATES
WIN
60%
50-53%
Florida
Alabama
California
Hawaii
Idaho
Alaska
Colorado
Iowa
Nebraska
Arizona
Connecticut
Maryland*
New Hampshire
Arkansas
Illinois
Massachusetts
South Carolina
Delaware
Missouri
Minnesota
Utah
Georgia
Montana
New York
Wyoming
Indiana
New Mexico
Oregon
Kansas
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Kentucky
South Dakota
Washington
Louisiana
Washington, D.C.
Maine
West Virginia
Michigan*
Wisconsin
Mississippi
Vermont*
Nevada
New Jersey
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas
Virginia
WHY VOTERS SAY COUNTRY
IS OFF ON WRONG TRACK
30%
GOV'T LDRSHP/POLTCNS
24%
16%
CRIME/JUD SYS
3%
16%
ECONOMY
17%
16%
JOBS
4%
16%
MORALS
10%
15%
FOREIGN AID
3%
8%
TAXES
10%
0% 5% 10%15%20%25%30%35%
OCT 91
NOV 90
FOCUS GROUP TYPOLOGIES
GOVERNMENT WASTE/TAXES
"Your senators and congressmen just think
they live with an endless budget, that they
can just spend as much money as they like,
and you can't do it, I can't do it."
"As you see, we already have started with
some rebellions against the taxes, and I
think if it keeps going, you're going to
have another Boston Tea Party."
"I had to pay sales tax on an exterminator."
OCTOBER NATIONAL
SAMPLE COMMENTS
QUESTION 2:
AND CAN YOU PLEASE TELL ME, IN YOUR OPINION, WHY YOU THINK THINGS
IN THE COUNTRY ARE OFF ON THE WRONG TRACK? AND CAN YOU TELL ME
MORE ABOUT THAT? WHY ELSE? ANY OTHER REASONS?
1.
GOVERNMENT LEADERSHIP / POLITICIANS - 30%
In the first place, the government is not in touch with the people / Our taxes are going way out
of sight / You can't afford to own your own home / Congress gives themselves raises and want
to cut the lower class of people.
Taxation without representation / Our Congressmen aren't doing their jobs / The way the
Congressmen pretend they don't understand questions asked, avoid the issue and act like the
public is stupid.
Because of a bunch of crooked politicians and we need to clean it up / Turn back to the good
Lord and vote from the heart.
Politicians basically have everything screwed up and out of control / They tend to be self
centered, self serving arrogant individuals / Because they control it and the public has no say
in it.
We got a bunch of lousy Congressmen and Senators / Because they tax the heck out of people
and take our money too much / They just throw money away.
The judge and Senators are stupid on the Clarence Thomas case and to think those guys are
running our country / Gun control -- people are still able to buy guns, regardless.
Our leadership in our government is mainly at fault / Leaders are more interested in foreign
policy / Not interested with people in own country / Too much corruption in government.
The biggest is the Thomas trial / I believe that people should be responsible for their actions /
Price of health care / High health care is a problem for the middle class.
Senate and the Congress are paid too much / Thomas hearing was a waste of taxpayers dollars
/ Don't like the cutbacks on military spending and defense budget.
Political things are going on and making things bad / Political programs misused / Especially
the prayers in school / Religion going haywire; like the things you can and can't do anymore.
QUESTION 2 (Continued)
2
2.
CRIME / LAW ENFORCEMENT / JUDICIAL SYSTEM - 16%
Judicial system is messed up / Have to let criminals go / Giving major sentences for minor
crimes and minor sentences for major crimes / Corrupt government is overspending.
There's too much drug abuse, raping, killing, and gays.
First of all people can't walk the street at night, the victims are being slain; we're protecting the
criminals / Take back the electric chair and public whipping / The senate budget is a farce / The
Senators are too anxious to pay themselves, instead of concern for the people.
Law enforcement / Lack of funds, lack of jails, permissive judges / Accused appear to get a
better deal / Permissive society / Society in which the judges allow certain things to occur where
criminals get a better deal than they should / Lack of respect from children.
Kids are killing each other / Crime is overrunning the country.
3.
ECONOMY (GENERAL) - 16%
Economically we are in bad shape / Indebtedness in the banks / Foreign investments in the U.S.
that could pull out / It's gotten worse in the last ten years.
Looks like we're standing still / Not moving forward / Minimum wage needs to be increased.
The economic situation / I think we spend too much money abroad and not taking care of the
needs of our people in our nation.
The economy generally / Look at Congress' deregulation of the savings and loans / I think crime
and the environment / The same thing is true in all areas, there is dishonesty -- no one has
integrity / Education / Partially the lack of funding.
4.
UNEMPLOYMENT / LACK OF JOBS - 16%
Jobless people / We should help our own / We need to consider our situation of joblessness and
welfare before we send our money abroad / I think we ought to clean up the morals of this
country.
People out of work / No jobs for them / Our leadership is not doing the right things / Not
making the right decisions / They are worried more about foreign relations than problems here.
Hell of a lot of people unemployed / There are people without homes / The President needs to
pay more attention at home / Congress needs to give back some of their 50 percent increase /
The U.S. needs to quit giving out money to every foreign country with its hand out.
QUESTION 2 (Continued)
3
5.
LACK OF MORALS / RELIGIOUS VALUES / DISHONESTY - 16%
The families are disintegrating / People have turned their back on God / Women are in the
workplace and not raising children and they're turning out wrong and they wonder why.
Because of immorality, calling wrong right and right wrong.
First they've taken prayer away / The punishment for the crimes committed aren't strong enough
/ Criminals commit murder and they are out on the street again in three years / They've taken
away capital punishment / It was the death of education when they took it out, it was the
foundation of the founding fathers and is what the country is founded on / We have the wimpy
senators, no one will stand up for anyone, no matter white or black.
People are turning their back to religion, if people would turn to religion they could get their
lives back in order / With religion out of the schools, kids aren't getting their moral teachings
anymore / They aren't getting it at home.
6.
TOO MUCH EMPHASIS ON FOREIGN AFFAIRS / FOREIGN AID - 15%
Basically the homeless and supporting other countries / We're putting a lot of money into other
countries when we need it here / We're not paying enough attention to the homeless.
Because the President isn't taking care of domestic affairs as he should / Doesn't know what to
do about budget / Congress is petrified about budget / Congress and Senators are serving too
long, as well as Supreme Court / We need new faces.
We are paying too much attention to others / Foreign affairs and what not / We are not paying
enough attention to our own country such as unemployment, the poor people and issues like that.
Too much attention overseas and not enough attention at home / Too much foreign policy and
not enough attention given to problems at home, like recession / Not enough to stimulate
economy.
We're not doing enough for our own country / Too much foreign policy / We have limited
resources that are in great demand, and we send too much outside of our country / The whole
social situation / Crime, unemployment / Also the decline of morals and corruption in our
government.
And who would you say is more to blame
for the country being off on the wrong track,
President Bush or the United States Congress?
CONGRESS
41%
DON'T KNOW
BOTH
5%
26%
NEITHER
10%
PRESIDENT BUSH
18%
Public Opinion Strategies: 10/91
TOP U.S. ISSUE CONCERNS
OCTOBER VS. JULY
14%
ECON/RECESSION
13%
13%
JOBS
8%
7%
DRUGS
11%
7%
EDUCATION
5%
6%
POVERTY/HUNGER
5%
5%
DEFICIT
6%
5%
CRIME
3%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%
OCTOBER
JULY
PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES
In the past month, have you heard your friends
or neighbors talk about the chance that
they could lose their jobs in the next year?
YES
65%
NO
35%
POS SURVEY: JULY 1991
PERSONAL/FAMILY FINANCES:
BETTER OFF/WORSE COMPARED
TO FOUR YEARS AGO: BY AGE
60%
50%
48%
43%
41%
40%
37%
35%
31%
29%
31%
30%
25%
26%
23%
21%
19%
20%
10%
10%
0%
TOTAL
18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
13%
2
1
3+
BETTER OFF
WORSE OFF
PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES: 10/91
PERSONAL/FAMILY FINANCES:
BETTER OFF/WORSE COMPARED
TO FOUR YEARS AGO: BY REGION
40%
35%
34%
35%
31%
32%
32%
29%
29%
30%
28%
25%
25%
23%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
TOTAL
NORTHEAST
MIDWEST
SOUTH
WEST
BETTER OFF
WORSE OFF
PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES: 10/91
PRESIDENT BUSH APPROVAL:
JULY VS. OCTOBER
80%
70%
70%
64%
60%
50%
40%
34%
29%
28%
30%
23%
20%
16%
12%
10%
0%
JULY 91
OCTOBER 91
STRONG APPROVE
TOTAL APPROVE
TOTAL DISAPPROVE
STRONG DISAPPROVE
PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES: 10/91
PRESIDENT BUSH APPROVAL:
BY 1988 VOTE
80%
71%
69%
61%
60%
55%
40%
40%
33%
35%
31%
26%
21%
22%
24%
20%
0%
BUSH>60%
BUSH 54%-60%
BELLWETHER
DUKE WINS
STATES
TOTAL APPROVE
STRONG APPROVE
TOTAL DISAPPROVE
PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES: 10/91
PRESIDENT BUSH: VOTE TO RE-ELECT
OR TIME FOR A NEW PERSON
JULY VS. OCTOBER
70%
60%
55%
51%
50%
39%
40%
35%
30%
20%
10%
10%
10%
0%
JULY 91
OCTOBER 91
RE-ELECT
NEW PERSON
DK/DEPENDS
PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES: 10/91
PRESIDENT BUSH: VOTE TO RE-ELECT
OR TIME FOR A NEW PERSON
70%
60%
56%
53%
51%
50%
48%
44%
45%
43%
39%
40%
35%
36%
30%
20%
TOTAL
NORTHEAST
MIDWEST
SOUTH
WEST
RE-ELECT
NEW PERSON
PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES: 10/91
PRESIDENT BUSH: VOTE TO RE-ELECT
OR TIME FOR A NEW PERSON
70%
60%
58%
55%
51%
49%
50%
45%
43%
41%
39%
40%
36%
33%
30%
20%
TOTAL
BUSH>60% BUSH 54%-60% BELLWETHER DUKE WINS
STATES
RE-ELECT
NEW PERSON
PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES: 10/91
FOCUS GROUP TYPOLOGIES
DEM MESSAGES/GOP VOICES
"President Bush, stay away from foreign affairs
a bit more and get back to domestic policies
and bring some of the money back here."
"One thing I think that's got to change to help
our economy is we should be tougher on trading
I think we're wimpy on our trading, that it's
going one way."
"Control the foreign spending and get a national
health care for people."
CONGRESSIONAL JOB RATING
1981-1991
80%
69%
70%
Q
64%
60%
57%
52%
52%
+
48%
49%
*
50%
43%
43%
42%
38%
+
40%
36%
37%
34%
33%
In
32%
33%
+
30%
25%
26%
+
+
20%
1981
1982
1983
1984
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1991
JULY
OCT
Approve
Disapprove
Source: Varlous GOP Polling Firms
PRESIDENTIAL VS. CONGRESSIONAL
JOB APPROVAL RATINGS
80%
PRESIDENT BUSH
CONGRESS
70%
70%
64%
65%
60%
57%
50%
40%
33%
28%
30%
26%
23%
20%
10%
0%
OCT
JULY
OCT
JULY
'91
'91
'91
'91
APPROVE
DISAPPROVE
PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES
OCTOBER 1991
VOTE FOR PRESIDENT/CONGRESS
To break the deadlock and get things done,
31%
I would vote Republican for Congress and give
President Bush a Congress he can work with.
I prefer the President and Congress to
32%
be of different parties because that way they
balance each other out.
I would like to give President Bush a Republican
5%
Congress to work with, but I like my Democratic
Congressman too much to vote against him.
Instead of trying to change Congress, I would
21%
like to elect a Democratic President who would
work with the Democrats in Congress.
Public Opinion Strategies: July 1991
CONGRESSIONAL JOB RATING
BY AGE
100%
80%
75%
75%
64%
65%
67%
60%
56%
52%
40%
36%
32%
26%
28%
26%
19%
20%
11%
0%
TOTAL
18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
Approve
Disapprove
PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES: 10/91
CONGRESSIONAL JOB RATING
BY 1988 VOTE
80%
69%
70%
64%
65%
63%
60%
57%
50%
40%
33%
30%
26%
27%
27%
22%
20%
TOTAL
BUSH>60%
BUSH 54%-60% BELLWETHER
DUKE WINS
STATES
Approve
Disapprove
PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES: 10/91
TYPOLOGY FOCUS GROUPS
Key Findings
The "Four P's" driving the mood of the
voters toward Congress is a unifying
theme across all three groups:
"I just think the American people are
losing faith in their leaders. Their
leaders aren't leaders no more, they're
a bunch of crooks and shysters and they
tell you one thing and mean another. When
you lose faith in something like that,
you have nothing to look up for."
(Working Person Male)
FOCUS GROUP TYPOLOGIES
Anti-Congress Mood
1. Perks and Privileges -- typified by checks:
"I think they have too many perks. They're
privileged people, but they are not."
2. Powerlessness -- Lobbyists/Money dominates
"Special interests really make the rules, not
Congress. The lobbyists, they really shape
the government, not the people sitting here."
3. Paralysis -- "What pi me off about
politicians, whether they're Democrats or
Republicans, they're afraid to say things."
BOUNCED CHECKS: NO BIG DEAL, OR SERIOUS ENOUGH
TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN HOW YOU VOTE NEXT YEAR?
This whole bounced check business is simply making a big
deal out of nothingand this issue will not make any differ-
ence in how I actually vote for Congress next year.
The issue of check-bouncing is serious because it is another
example that members of Congress are out of touch with the
average person and it will definitely make a difference in
how I plan to vote for Congress next year.
Issue no big deal/will not make difference
20%
Issue is serious enough/will make difference
73%
FOCUS GROUP TYPOLOGIES
CHECK BOUNCING
With the possible exception of the Thomas
hearings, no other issue stirred people
like the Congressional check bouncing.
Participants cut right through to the
bigger picture of the issue.
"It shows bad judgement."
"I think it is a weakness of character."
"Don't they live by the same set of
rules and regulations that we do?"
CLARENCE THOMAS:
FAVOR OR OPPOSE CONFIRMATION
100%
80%
75%
62%
64%
60%
57%
54%
51%
46%5%
40%
84%
84%
85%
31%
28%
20%
17%
0%
MEN WOMEN WHITES BLACKS
GOP
IND
DEM
FAVOR
OPPOSE
PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES: OCTOBER 1991
CLARENCE THOMAS CONFIRMATION:
FAVOR OR OPPOSE BY REGION
80%
70%
67%
59%
61%
58%
59%
60%
55%
56%
55%
48%
50%
45%
40%
85%
34%
81%
29%
30%
27%
29%
27%
3%
20%
10%
0%
TOTAL
NEW
MID
GREAT
FARM
OUTER
DEEP
MOUN
PACIFIC
ENG*
ATL
LAKES
BELT
SOUTH
SOUTH
TAIN
FAVOR
OPPOSE
PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES: OCTOBER 1991
IMPORTANCE OF OWN SENATOR'S VOTE
ON THOMAS AS VOTE DETERMINANT
Favor/s-what impt
20%
17%
Favor/very impt
12%
41%
Oppose/very impt
Not impt/DK
10%
Oppose/s-what impt
PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES: 10/91
PRESIDENT BUSH BALLOT TEST:
JULY VS. OCTOBER
JULY BALLOT:
OCTOBER BALLOT:
BUSH
BUSH
64%
56%
15%
UNDECIDED
23%
21%
21%
UNDECIDED
HARKIN
CUOMO
PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES: OCTOBER 1991
BUSH DEMOCRATS
ATTITUDINALLY
More positive about direction of country than either all
Democrats or the aggregate, but less so than
Republicans.
Blame Congress rather than Bush for the country
being off on wrong track by a 57%-5% margin.
Issue agenda more similar to Independents than
Democrats or Republicans (less economic focus).
Believe their personal financial status has improve
significantly over the last four years;; more so than
either Republicans or other Democrats.
Believe Bush should be re-elected by 73%-14%
margin.
Support Clarence Thomas' confirmation to the
Supreme Court by 61%-31%.
Are less likely to be pro-choice (53%-39%) than other
Democrats (63%-27%).
PARTISAN AFFILIATION:
GENERIC DIFFERENCES
SEX
Men are significantly more GOP-oriented than women
AGE
Republican voters tend to be younger than Dems.
41% of GOP are under 35, compared to 26% of Dems
INCOME
In general, the higher the income level, the
more likely a voter is to be GOP-oriented
MARITAL STATUS
Both married men and women tend to side with
the GOP, while their single counterparts are more
likely to be Democrat partisans.
EDUCATION LEVEL
Lower educated Americans give the Democrat candidate
wide margins, while those with some college and college
grads favor the GOP. Post-Grads favor the Democrat by
about the same margin as those with less than H.S.
RELIGION
Protestants identify with the GOP by about the same
margin as Catholics identify as Democrats.
ABORTION
Pro-lifers are slightly more GOP-oriented (17 points),
than Pro-choicers are Democrat-oriented (9 points).
TRACKING INDEPENDENTS
THROUGH THE REAGAN/BUSH
YEARS: 1981-1991
40%
30%7%
22%
22%
21%
20%
18%
17%
15%
14%
14%
13%
13%
12%
12%
12%
10%
10%
9%
0%
2/815/833/8411/844/855/858/853/865/868/875/884/896/8910/907/9110/91
COMPILED BY PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES
1992 ELECTION OUTLOOK
Hostile electorate wanting to
vent frustration.
Anti-incumbent sentiment as
strong as ever
The four "P's" (powerlessness,
paralysis, perks and privileges)
Perception of lingering recession
will dominate early issue agenda.
Abortion a major voting issue.
Presidential election closer than
CW says. Mood is still too negative
to sustain Bush's approval scores.
Campaign:
Dominated by DEM attack on domestic
VS. foreign agenda
As negative as 1988
Late movement toward the DEMs
Younger voters (under 40) being
key swing group
PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES
Republican and Democratic
TYPOLOGY SEGMENTATION
OCTOBER 1991
DEFINING TYPOLOGIES
Party labels (Republican, Democrat, Independent), self-
described ideology (liberal, conservative), or demographic
factors (younger versus older respondents) could all be
labeled as "typologies," because members of the
respective groups presumably share a common set of
political beliefs.
THE LIMITATIONS
OF THE
EXISTING TYPOLOGIES
1. "Liberal" and "conservative" do not have the same
meaning for every voter. There is very direct
evidence that how voters define "liberal" and
"conservative" is quite a bit different than how we in
the world of politics want to define these terms.
2. Current political typologies fail to provide much
meaningful information about why voters choose a
particular political candidate.
3. Current political typologies fail to explain why
shifting coalitions come together on some issues and
divide on other issues.
SUMMARY OBSERVATIONS
1. Ideological self-identification, whether one considers
oneself a liberal or a conservative, does not play an
important role for most Americans. It is a poor
surrogate for one's basic political values.
2. The nine basic values and orientations that emerge
from the research relate strongly to public attitudes
on a wide range of issues. When combined with
party identification, they also improve our
understanding of the respondents' political choices.
SETTING UP A CRITERIA
FOR A NEW TYPOLOGY SYSTEM
(Three goals as outlined in the Times-Mirror study in
1987:)
1
A new typology must do a better job than traditional
typologies in measuring voter preferences.
2
A new typology should show how personal attitudes
shape voters' political behavior and influence their
choice on political issues.
3
A new typology would have to be able to classify
Americans into mutually exclusive categories.
(One more goal required for use in today's
campaigns
)
4
To be useful in a campaign, a new typology must be
able to integrate survey research data and Republican
voter contact efforts. In plain English, we have to
be able to develop a new typology that can be asked
simply and inexpensively on both traditional surveys
and on voter ID scripts.
HOW COULD A NEW TYPOLOGY
SYSTEM BE USED
WHY IS IT IMPORTANT?
Potentially critical in ideological Republican
primaries
help identify and secure different
elements of the Republican coalition
Can help identify and sway swing Democrats
Can be integrated with traditional voter identification
programs
which would potentially allow very
targeted messages to different types of Republicans
and Democrats
Republican Typology Question
Although there are many reasons a person might think of
themselves as (a Republican/being somewhat closer to the
Republican party), now I am going to read you the
beginning of a sentence and would like you to tell me which
ONE of the following best describes what you personally
believe?
The sentence begins
The best way to explain why I (am a Republican/lean
towards the Republican party) is because the
Republican party and its candidates generally support
Cutting government spending and lower taxes
A strong national defense
The private enterprise system, not big government
to solve people's problems
More traditional family values
Now, which ONE of these four statements best describes
why you think of yourself as (a Republican/leaning towards
the Republican party)?
RESPONSES TO THE
REPUBLICAN TYPOLOGY QUESTION
OCT JUL
29% 19% Cutting government spending and
lower taxes
11% 22% A strong national defense
23% 26% The private enterprise system,
not big government to solve
people's problems
26%
25% More traditional family values
6%
5%
NONE OF THE ABOVE
(DO NOT READ)
5%
3%
NOT SURE/REFUSED
(DO NOT READ)
Democratic Typology Question
Although there are many reasons a person might think of
themselves as (a Democrat/being somewhat closer to the
Democratic party), now I am going to read you the beginning
of a sentence and would like you to tell me which ONE of the
following best describes what you personally believe?
The sentence begins
The best way to explain why I (am a Democrat/lean
towards the Democratic party) is because the Democratic
party and its candidates generally
(ROTATE)
Historic support for the cause of civil rights
Support for needed government programs to help the
needy, poor, children and America's elderly
Commitment to the interests of the everyday
WORKING person
Efforts to secure peace by opposing unnecessary
defense spending
Now, which ONE of these four statements best describes
why you think of yourself as (a Democrat/leaning towards
the Democratic party)?
Responses to the
Democratic Typology Question
10% Historic support for civil rights
39% Support for gov't programs for
needy, poor, elderly
33% Commitment to WORKING person
7% Efforts to secure peace
6%
NONE OF THE ABOVE
(DO NOT READ)
5% NOT SURE/REFUSED
(DO NOT READ)
HOW WELL DO TYPOLOGIES DESCRIBE WHY
YOU THINK OF YOURSELF AS A... (REP/DEM)
PERCENT "VERY WELL"
%
GOP
REPUBLICAN TYPOLOGIES
DEFENSE
51% 11%
FAMILY VALUES
38%
26%
PRIVATE ENTERPRISE
38%
23%
SPENDING/TAXES
36%
29%
DEM
DEMOCRAT TYPOLOGIES
CIVIL RIGHTS
44%
10%
GOV'T PROGRAMS
41%
39%
34%
33%
WORKING PERSON
PEACE
31%
7%
I
I
I
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
P.O.S. DATA
TYPOLOGY GROUPS
One very positive indicator is that the October data sets confirms
important observations about some of the key demographic sub-
groups that comprise each of the typology segments.
For example:
WORKING CLASS DEMOCRATS:
-
50 years old plus
I
Northeast/Midwest
- Catholic
-
Middle-income ($15,000-$40,000)
I
Some college/high school graduates
REPUBLICAN TYPOLOGY GROUPS
a few notes
DEFENSE REPUBLICANS
- Male
- Southern
-
Under 35 years old
-
Strong Republicans
FAMILY VALUE REPUBLICANS
- Women
-
Southern/Midwestern
-
"Soft" Republicans
--
Strongest Bush supporters
-
Most pro-life segment of any typology group
REPUBLICAN TYPOLOGY GROUPS
a few notes
ANTI-GOVERNMENT REPUBLICANS
-
35-54 years old
-
College/post-graduates
-
Very affluent
-
Most politically active
ANTI-TAX & SPEND
-
Classic profile of GOP donor base
older, well-educated,
household income between $30-$50,000 per year
split
by gender
-
For two studies in a row, "softest" Bush support
TYPOLOGY FOCUS GROUPS
KEY FINDINGS
There are significant differences in the
issue focus and tenor of the groups:
Working Person Dems are echoing many of
the economic messages of the Dem Party,
but don't trust the Dems on social issues
like crime. They also perceive a wide
leadership gap between Dems and GOPers
Family value GOPers and economic GOPers
share many of the same values, but offer
a much different focus.
FOCUS GROUP TYPOLOGIES
THE AMERICAN FAMILY
All three typology groups defined many
of the stresses and strains (education,
crime/drugs, health care, the economy)
within the context of the changing --
and beleagured -- American family.
Thus, people do a more skillful job of
placing issues within a values-oriented/
cultural context than many politicians.
"Everybody wants to blame everything on
everybody, but the problem is that people
don't teach their kids the correct values
of life."
TYPOLOGIES
The following charts demonstrate that indeed the proposed
Republican and Democrat typology groups do provide an additional
segmentation of the data as compared to "traditional" typology
segments.
SUMMARY TABLE
Comparing "Traditional" and "Proposed" Typologies
(Net Difference Scores)
Republican
Democrat
Issue
Traditional
Typology
Traditional
Typology
Abortion
19
34
16
49
Gulf War
5
21
11
42
Bush Ballot
9
12
14
23
GULF WAR VOTE
(57% GOP -24% DEM = 33% D/S)
Democrat
Republican
TOTAL
D/S
33%
Traditional Typologies
TOTAL GOP
74%
GOP MEN
77%
GOP WOMEN
72%
5pt
Diff
GOP 18-34
76%
GOP 35-54
74%
GOP 55+
72%
POS "New" Typologies
SPEND/TAX
74%
STRONG DEFENSE
88%
74%
21pt
PRIVATE ENTERPRISE
Diff
FAMILY VALUES
67%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Public Opinion Strategles
National Survey: July 24-26, 1991
GULF WAR VOTE
(57% GOP -24% DEM = 33% D/S)
Democrat
Republican
TOTAL
33%
Traditional Typologies
TOTAL DEM
-15%
DEM MEN
-12%
11pt
DEM WOMEN
-18%
Diff
DEM 18-34
-11%
DEM 35-54
-13%
DEM 55+
-22%
POS "New" Typologies
WORKING PEOPLE
-4%
CIVIL RTS/BIG GOVT
-46%
42pt
SOCIAL JUSTICE
-28%
Diff
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
Public Opinion Strategies
National Survey: July 24-26, 1991
SELF DESCRIBED ABORTION
(45% PRO-LIFE - 52% PRO-CHOICE=-7% D/S)
PRO-CHOICE
PRO-LIFE
TOTAL -
-7%
TRADITIONAL TYPOLOGIES
NET 19%
TOTAL GOP -
2%
DIFFERENCE
GOP MEN -
-3%
GOP WOMEN -
7%
GOP 18-34 --12%
GOP 35-54 -
2%
GOP 55+ -
2%
P.O.S. "NEW" TYPOLOGIES
NET 34%
SPEND/TAX -
-4%
DIFFERENCE
STRONG DEFENSE -
-2%
PRIVATE ENTERPRISE -
1%
FAMILY VALUES -
30%
-20%
- -10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
P.O.S. DATA
SELF DESCRIBED ABORTION
(45% PRO-LIFE - 52% PRO-CHOICE=-7% D/S)
TRADITIONAL TYPOLOGIES
PRO-CHOICE
-
TOTAL DEM -
-30%
DEM MEN -
NET 16%
-36%
DIFFERENCE
DEM WOMEN -
-26%
DEM 18-34 -
-38%
DEM 35-54 -
-33%
DEM 55+ -
-20%
P.O.S. "NEW" TYPOLOGIES
WORKING PEOPLE -
NET 49%
-34%
DIFFERENCE
GOVT PROGRAMS -
-11%
SOCIAL JUSTICE - -60%
-70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0%
P.O.S. DATA
BUSH - HARKIN BALLOT
(56% BUSH - 21% HARKIN = 35% D/S)
TRADITIONAL TYPOLOGIES
PRO-CHOICE
-
DEMOCRATS -
NET 14%
-14%
DIFFERENCE
DEM MEN -
-7%
DEM WOMEN -
-17%
DEM 18-34 -
-20%
DEM 35-54 -
-5%
DEM 55+ -
-19%
P.O.S. NEW TYPOLOGIES
NET 23%
WORKING CLASS -
DIFFERENCE
-2%
SOCIAL JUSTICE -
-21%
GOVT PROGRAMS - -25%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
- -10%
-5%
0%
P.O.S. DATA
OCT-23-1991 15:55 FROM CNN CENTRAL BOOKINGS
TO
912026381967
P.03
61
01
movier
VVII.
cases
c
GALLUP POLL NEWS SERVICE
For release Wednesday, October 23, 1991
(CNN release Tuesday, October 22, 8 p.m.)
By Larry Hugick
Political Fallout from the Thomas Hearings
RATINGS FOR CONGRESS, DEMOCRATIC PARTY FALL; BUT ANTI-
INCUMBENT SENTIMENT NOT EVIDENT
PRINCETON, N.J. -- Congressional Democrats have had a
bad month. A new Gallup poll, completed since the Senate
confirmed Clarence Thomas to the Supreme Court, shows
sharp declines in the public's ratings of Congress and
the Democratic Party since the Thomas hearings began in
early September. Currently, only half (50%) of Americans
have a favorable opinion of Congress, down from 59% in a
September poll. The Democratic Party's image, already at
a historical low point, fell further: 58% now have a
favorable opinion of the Democratic Party, compared with
63% last month.
The declining image of Congress and the Democratic
Party cannot be attributed entirely to the Thomas
hearings and the controversy over Anita Hill's charges of
sexual harassment. In the past month, Congress has come
under fire for bouncing checks at the House bank and
other questionable practices, including unpaid restaurant
bills and fixed traffic tickets.
While these poll results may strike fear in the hearts
of some Democratic members of the House and Senate, other
findings might allay those concerns. There are few signs
of anti-incumbent sentiment among the voters. Three in
ten (28%) voters say recent events in Washington make
them less likely to re-elect their incumbent Senators and
Congressman; twice as many (61%) say they are more likely
to re-elect an incumbent. Also, voters do not seem less
inclined to vote for Democratic as opposed to Republican
congressional candidates: 38% say recent events make them
less likely to vote Democratic; 40% say they are now less
likely to vote Republican.
1
OCT-23-1991 15:55 FROM CNN CENTRAL BOOKINGS
TO
912026381967
P.04
SENT BY:GALLUP ORG. World HQ. 10-21-91 ; 6:38PM :Int1. /Media/Con. East->
:# 3
Bush Ratings Change Little Over Past Month
George Bush, who has largely stayed above the fray,
appears to have neither gained nor lost much ground
politically from the battle over Clarence Thomas. The
President's approval rating, now 66%, has not varied
significantly since mid-September. His overall
favorability score -- 76% today vs. 81% -- is down
slightly over the same period. On the other hand,
a majority of voters (55%) say recent events in
Washington make them more likely to vote to re-elect Bush
in 1992.
Blacks. Men Shift Most on Thomas
The political fallout from the Thomas vote may be less
severe than many political observers have been
predicting. Majorities of voters say their Senator's
vote in favor (52%) or against (57%) Thomas will have
little bearing on whether they vote to reelect that
Senator. If the Senator voted in favor of Thomas, 25%
say they are more likely to support him, while 20% are
less likely to support him. If a Senator voted against
Thomas, 17% say they are more likely to support him,
while 23% are less likely to support him.
That is not to say that the televised hearings have
failed to make Clarence Thomas a more salient issue among
the electorate. In mid-September, well before Anita Hill
came forward with her allegations, close to three-
quarters (72%) said that a Senator's vote on Thomas
wouldn't much affect their voting behavior. The balance
of opinion among voter subgroups has shifted little over
the past month, with two notable exceptions: Since
Hill's charges and the subsequent hearings, blacks and
men have become more sympathetic toward Thomas. Black
voters and male voters are now more inclined to say a
pro-Thomas confirmation vote increases, rather than
decreases their chances of voting for the Senator.
Women voters, a focus of much media attention since
the hearings, remain sharply divided on the Thomas
confirmation. About a quarter (24%) of female voters now
say they are more likely to support a Senator who backed
Thomas; a similar proportion (23%) are less likely to do
so. 80th college-educated women and less well educated
women are about evenly divided on this issue.
2
OCT-23-1991 15:56 FROM CNN CENTRAL BOOKINGS
TO
912026381967 P.05
SENT BY:GALLUP ORG. World HQ. :10-21-91 : 6:39PM :Intl. /Media/Con. tast-
,# 4
Expected Effects on Sexual Harassment
Although most Americans ended up believing that Anita
Hill's charges were untrue, the public believes the
resulting publicity will lead to progress in combatting
sexual harassment. A majority (60%) of Americans say
that, because of the Thomas-Hill hearings, more women
will report cases of sexual harassment. A similar
majority (60%) say that companies are likely to take
stronger steps against sexual harassment now that the
issue has been so well publicized.
SURVEY METHODOLOGY
The results are based on telephone interviews with a
randomly selected national sample of 1,000 adults, 18
years and older. conducted October 17-20, 1991. For
results based on samples of this size, one can say with
95 percent confidence that the error attributable to
sampling and other random effects could be plus or minus
3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error,
question wording and practical difficulties in conducting
surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
public opinion polls.
3
OCT-23-1991 15:56 FROM CNN CENTRAL BOOKINGS
TO
912026381967
P.06
DENI 'DI BALLOP URG. world MW. , 0.33PM /media/com cast-
1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Bush is
handling his job as president?
&1991
&Dis
No
&Approve approve Opinion
1
&%
%
%
110/17-20
&66
26
8
110/10-13
&66
28
6
!10/3-6
&65
27
8
19/26-29
&66
25
9
19/13-15
&68
22
10
!9/5-8
&70
21
9
18/29-9/3
&69
22
9
18/23-25
&74
19
7
!8/8-11
&71
22
7
17/25-28
&71
21
8
17/18-21
&70
21
9
17/11-14
&72
21
7
16/27-30
&72
22
6
16/13-16
&71
19
10
15/30-6/2
&74
17
9
15/23-26
&76
16
8
15/16-19
&76
16
8
15/2-5
&74
19
7
14/25-28
&76
15
9
14/11-14
&77
13
10
14/4-6
&83
12
5
13/28-30
&82
11
7
13/21-24
&84
10
6
13/14-17
&86
9
5
13/7-10
&87
8
5
12/28-3/3
&89
8
3
12/14-17
&80
14
6
12/7-10
&79
18
3
11/30-2/2
&82
15
3
11/23-26
&85
11
4
11/19-22
&80
14
6
11/17-20
&82
12
6
11/11-13
&64
25
11
11/3-6
&58
31
11
4
OCT-23-1991 15:57 FROM CNN CENTRAL BOOKINGS
TO
912026381967
P.07
SENT BY:GALLUP ORG. World HQ. 10-21-91 ; 5:40PM 1nt. / media/ VVIN casv
&1990
112/13-16
&63
30
7
112/6-9
&58
33
9
111/29-12/2
&61
29
10
111/15-18
&54
33
13
111/8-11
&58
34
8
111/1-4
&58
32
10
110/25-28
&54
36
10
110/18-21
&53
37
10
110/11-14
&56
33
11
110/3-4
&66
25
9
19/27-30
&67
20
13
19/14-16
&73
17
10
19/10-11
&76
16
8
18/30-9/2
&74
17
9
18/23-26
&76
16
8
Bush approval continued
&1990
18/16-19
&75
16
9
/
18/9-12
&74
16
10
17/19-22
&60
25
15
,
17/6-8
&63
24
13
,
16/15-17
&69
17
14
,
16/7-10
&67
18
15
15/17-20
&65
20
15
14/19-22
&67
17
16
14/5-8
&68
16
16
1
13/15-18
&74
15
11
1
13/8-11
268
18
14
,
12/15-18
&73
11
,
16
12/8-11
&73
16
11
11/4-7
&80
11
9
1
&1989
112/7-10
&71
20
9
/
111/2-5
&70
17
13
1
110/5-8
&68
20
12
1
19/7-10
&70
17
13
,
18/10-13
&69
19
12
,
17/6-9
&66
19
15
1
16/8-11
270
14
16
15/4-7
&56
22
,
22
14/10-16
&58
16
26
,
13/10-13
&56
16
28
/
12/28-3/2
&63
13
24
11/24-26
&51
6
43
5
OCT-23-1991 15:57 FROM CNN CENTRAL BOOKINGS
TO
912026381967
P.08
SENT BY GALLUP VRG, world MW. 10-21-01 0.40Pm / media/ VOID case-
2. I'd like you to rate President Bush on a scale. If
you have a favorable opinion of him, name a number
between plus one and plus five -- the higher the
number, the more favorable your opinion. If you have
an unfavorable opinion of him, name a number between
minus one and minus five -- the higher the number the
more unfavorable your opinion. How would you rate
Bush on this scale?
&10/91
&%
Highly favorable
(+4,+5)
&38
!Mildly favorable.
(+1,+2,+3)
&38
IMildly unfavorable
(-1,-2,-3)
&14
IHighty unfavorable
(-4,-5)
&8
INo opinion
&2
ITOTAL
&100
&7/84 9/84 7/85 7/87 9/5-8/91
&%
%
%
%
%
Highly favorable
(+4,+5)
&17
23
23
26
39
!Mildly favorable
(+1,+2,+3)
&53
49
56
47
42
1
IMildly unfavorable
(-1,-2,-3)
&15
12
12
11
11
/
IHighly unfavorable
(-4,-5)
&8
8
5
6
6
!No opinion
&7
8
4
10
2
TOTAL
&100
100
100
100
100
6
OCT-23-1991 15:58 FROM CNN CENTRAL BOOKINGS
TO
912026381967
P.09
SENI
DI
GALLUP
une.
3. And how would you rate Congress on the same scale?
1
1970 1973 1975 9/5-8/91 10/91
!
&%
%
%
%
%
,
!Highly favorable
1 (+4,+5)
36
27
18
10
8 ,
!M11dly favorable
(+1,+2,+3)
48
52
49
49
42 1
IMildly unfavorable
I (-1,-2,-3)
7
11
21
22
26
,
IHighly unfavorable
.(-4,-5)
3
3
8
12
18
,
!No opinion
6
7
4
7
6
/
!TOTAL
100
100
100
100
100
,
4. And how would you rate the U.S. Supreme Court on the
same scale?
&1973 9/5-8/91 10/91 :
&%
%
%
!Highly favorable
I (+4,+5)
&28
18
19
,
!Mildly favorable.
$ (+1,+2,+3)
&50
49
48
,
!Mildly unfavorable
(-1,-2,-3)
&9
15
13
,
IHighly unfavorable
(-4,-5)
&5
6
8
INo opinion
&8
12
12
,
!TOTAL
&100
100
100
,
7
OCT-23-1991 15:58 FROM CNN CENTRAL BOOKINGS
TO
912026381967
P.10
SENT BY:GALLUP ORG. World HQ. :10-21-91 : 6:41PM
5. And how would you rate the Republican Party on the
same scale?
&FAVORABLE
UNFAVORABLE
!
&Highly Mildly Mildly Highly No
&+4+5
+3, +2, +1
3,-2,
1
4,
5
Opinion
!
&%
%
%
%
%
!10/91 &18
47
17
11
7
,
19/91 &17
52
16
8
7
1
19/84 &26
39
15
14
6
13/81 &30
44
11
8
7
,
110/80 &18
47
19
11
5
15/80 &17
50
18
10
5
111/75 &15
47
20
14
4
18/73 &19
40
20
16
5
,
!10/72 &29
43
14
9
5
!10/70 &25
47
14
10
4
,
112/68 &25
42
17
13
3
19/68 &30
47
12
7
4
17/68 &27
43
16
9
5
,
!5/68 &27
46
14
9
4
1
10/67 &34
39
15
8
4
14/67 &33
44
12
7
4
112/66 &28
41
15
7
9
18/66 &29
44
14
6
7
15/65 &26
39
12
7
16
,
!10/64 &21
33
16
17
13
1
!10/56 &33
29
13
12
13
12/56 &27
31
24
6
12
8
OCT-23-1991 15:59 FROM CNN CENTRAL BOOKINGS
TO
912026381967
P.11
SENI BY:GALLUP ORG. World HW.
110-21-91
5.41PM ovn. case-
6. And how would you rate the Democratic Party on the
same scale?
!
&FAVORABLE
UNFAVORABLE
1
&Highly Mildly
Mildly
Highly No
!
&+4+5
+3,+2,+1
-3,-2,-1
-4,-5
Opinion
1
&%
%
%
%
%
110/91 &16
42
22
13
7
19/91
&16
47
21
8
8
!9/84 &26
39
18
9
8
,
13/81
&34
41
12
6
7
/
10/80 &27
46
15
7
5
,
5/80 &28
48
14
6
4
!11/75 &30
48
13
5
4
1
!8/73 &29
43
15
7
4
110/72 &30
44
14
6
6
110/70 &35
44
11
6
4
112/68 &41
33
15
6
5
19/68 &32
38
17
10
3
17/68
&36
37
14
8
5
15/68 &42
36
12
7
3
110/67 &31
35
18
14
2
14/67 &40
37
11
7
5
12/66 &33
37
13
9
8
18/66 &36
40
10
7
7
!5/65
&44
34
7
4
11
,
10/64 &45
29
10
5
11
,
110/56 &38
25
12
10
15
,
12/56
&43
26
22
7
6
9
OCT-23-1991 15:59 FROM CNN CENTRAL BOOKINGS
TO
912026381967
P.12
SENT BY:GALLUP ORG. World HQ. 110-21-91 0.41PM 0
7. As a result of recent events in Washington, please
tell me whether you are more likely or less likely to
do each of the following:
No
1
More
Less
Change
DK/
likely
Likely
(VOLUNTEERED) Refused
&%
%
%
%
1
IVote at all in
1the next
election
89
4
6
1
I Vote to re-elect a
I Senator from
your state or a
[Congressman from
1your district
61
28
5
6
!Vote to re-elect
George Bush in
11992
55
34
4
7
!Vote for
!Democratic
!candidates
Ifor Senator
46
38
7
9
lor Congressman
IVote for
!Republican
!candidates for
Senator or
Congressman
44
40
7
9
10
OCT-23-1991 16:00 FROM CNN CENTRAL BOOKINGS
TO
912026381967
P.13
SEN BY GALLOP VKG. WOT IM
8. If your Senator voted in favor of Clarence Thomas
serving on the Supreme Court, would you be more likely
or less likely to vote for his re-election -- or would
it not much affect your vote?
[BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS]
&10/91
&ALL Men Women
&%
%
%
More likely
25
27
24
ILess likely
20
18
23
INot much
affect vote
52
54
50
NO OPINION
3
,
3
1
TOTAL
100 100
100
NUMBER OF
INTERVIEWS
(812) (419) (393)
,
10/91
/
White
Whites Southerners Blacks
/
%
%
%
/
More likely
25
31
32
Less likely
21
23
12
Not much
affect vote
52
44
52
NO OPINION
2
2
4
TOTAL
100
100
100
NUMBER OF
1
INTERVIEWS
(687)
(193)
(91)
TREND [BASED ON ALL ADULTS]:
&9/13-15/91
1
1
&ALL Men Women
,
&%
%
%
,
More likely
12
11
13
,
!Less likely
10
10
9
Not much
laffect vote
72
75
70
NO OPINION
6
4
8
,
TOTAL
100 100
100
,
NUMBER OF
INTERVIEWS
(1216) (607) (609)
9/13-15/91
,
White
Whites Southerners Blacks
%
%
%
More likely
12
17
10
Less likely
9
8
10
Not much
laffect vote
73
71
75
INO OPINION
6
4
5
,
TOTAL
100
100
100
NUMBER OF
INTERVIEWS
(1085)
(318)
(79)
11
OCT-23-1991 16:00 FROM CNN CENTRAL BOOKINGS
TO
912026381967
P.14
9. If your Senator voted against Clarence Thomas serving
on the Supreme Court, would you be more likely or less
likely to vote for his re-election -- or would it not
much affect your vote?
[BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS]
ALL
Men Women
&%
%
%
More likely
17
13
22
/
Less likely
23
26
20
Not much affect vote 57
59
54
NO OPINION
3
2
4
1
TOTAL
100
100
100
NUMBER OF
!
INTERVIEWS
(812) (419) (393)
White
1
White Southerners Blacks
&%
%
%
More likely
&17
20
21
Less likely
&24
24
18
Not much
affect vote
&56
52
57
NO OPINION
&3
4
4
TOTAL
&100
100
100
NUMBER OF
INTERVIEWS (687)
(193)
(91)
12
OCT-23-1991 16:01 FROM CNN CENTRAL BOOKINGS
TO
912026381967
P.15
10. As a result of Anita Hill's charges of sexual
harassment against Clarence Thomas and the recent
Senate hearings, do you think each of the following is
more likely or less likely -- or 1f things will not
change much?
Not
More
Less
Much
DON'T
T
,
likely Likely Change KNOW
/
&%
%
%
%
That women will
report cases of
sexual harassment
All Adults
60
19
19
2
Men
63
17
17
3
,
Women
57
20
21
2
That companies will
take strong steps
lagainst sexual
lharassment
All Adults
60
13
25
2
Men
65
9
23
3
,
Women
55
16
27
2
,
13
*17
CBS: BUSH APPROVAL 64%, BUT ONLY 30% ON ECONOMY
1,280 surveyed from 10/5-7; M/E +/- 3% (CBS release, 10/10).
BUSH JOB APPROVAL
ALL
GOP
DEM
IND
9/91
3/91
1/91
10/90
Approve
64%
84%
52%
58%
70%
88%
62%
52%
Disapprove
26
12
37
29
19
8
27
37
APPROVE/DISAPPROVE
BUSH'S
HANDLING
OF
ALL
GOP
DEM
IND
8/91
FOREIGN POLICY
Approve
63%
78%
51%
59%
67%
Disappr.
27
14
37
29
23
ECONOMY
Approve
30%
46%
19%
25%
38%
Disappr.
62
47
74
64
50
THE FUTURE FOR THE NEXT GENERATION OF AMERICANS WILL BE
ALL
GOP
DEM
IND
3/91
Better
20%
23%
17%
20%
36%
Worse
52
45
57
53
26
Same
25
29
22
23
35
GIVEN THE IMPORTANCE OF BOTH FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC POLICY, BUSH
SPENDS TOO MUCH OF HIS TIME ON
ALL
GOP
DEM
IND
10/90
Too much foreign
59%
46%
72%
58%
36%
Too much at home
2
1
3
2
4
About right
34
50
21
32
51
IS BUSH PAYING ENOUGH ATTENTION TO THE ECONOMY?
ALL
GOP
DEM
IND
3/91
Paying enough
18%
25%
11%
18%
31%
Should be paying more
78
72
85
77
61
AGREE/DISAGREE THAT U.S. IS IN DECLINE
AS
WORLD
POWER?
ALL
GOP
DEM
IND
3/91
Strong agree
18%
14%
22%
20%
8%
Somewhat agree
26
23
29
25
14
Somewhat disagree
27
27
25
29
28
Strong disagree
23
32
20
18
45
IN THE NEXT CENTURY, WHICH WILL BE NO. 1 WORLD ECONOMIC POWER?
ALL
GOP
DEM
IND
Japan
58%
56%
61%
57%
United States
25
30
22
22
Germany
2
1
2
2
USSR
2
1
1
4
Other
7
8
7
7
DID THE U.S. MAKE A MISTAKE GETTING INVOLVED IN GULF WAR?
ALL
GOP
DEM
IND
6/91
Mistake
22%
10%
31%
24%
22%
Not a mistake
74
88
65
71
72
GIVEN THE LOSS OF LIFE AND OTHER COSTS OF WAR, WAS THE WAR TO
DEFEAT IRAQ WOTH THE COTS OR NOT?
ALL
GOP
DEM
IND
6/91
Worth it
61%
74%
52%
59%
66%
Not worth it
33
22
42
35
30
18
10/17/91
17:28
313 668 6249
COLDWATER CORP
002
AC/TM
MEMORANDUM
To:
Governor Sununu
From:
Bob Teeter
d
Date:
October 17, 1991
A couple of follow-ups on our conversation yesterday regarding the
effect and opportunity brought about by the Thomas hearings.
First of all, it might be temporary, but Thornburgh's percent among
blacks in the daily tracking clearly increased during the hearings.
I've asked Fred to keep careful track of it, see if it holds up,
and give us a paper when the election is over.
Also, the publisher of the Wall Street Journal had asked my help
with the attached invitation which looks like something we should
consider doing if it works out with the schedule.
10/17/91
17:29
313 668 6249
COLDWATER CORP
003
DOW JONES & COMPANY,IN
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
Publishers
200 L.BERTY STREET- NEW YORK, N.Y. 10281
PETER R KANN
Chairman & Publisher
September 4, 1991
The President
The White House
Washington, D.C.
Dear Mr. President:
I am writing to respectfully invite you to address a national
forum, Black Entrepreneurship in America, to be held in Atlanta on
April 2-4, 1992.
The forum, including black business leaders and entrepreneurs
from around the country, is being organized and hosted by Dow
Jones & Company and The Wall Street Journal in cooperation with
Clark Atlanta University and Spelman College.
Your willingness to address the conference obviously would
enormously enhance and amplify the goals of this event, which are
to focus increased attention within and beyond the black community
on the opportunities and challenges facing this important and
growing business community. It is our belief that the successes
of black entrepreneurs have received too little national
attention. This forum, particularly with your participation, can
focus a national spotlight on these successes and at the same
time, provide an opportunity to explore and help solve challenges
and problems facing black business people.
We also respectfully suggest that this audience of some 500
black entrepreneurs from across the U.S. would be an excellent one
for you to address and would be a profoundly interested and
receptive one for many of your administration's policies and for
your personal priorities of enterprise, competitiveness and
private sector initiative.
other speakers will include leading black business people as
well as chief executives and other leaders of the wider corporate
community.
1Q/17/91 17:29
313 668 6249
COLDWATER CORP
004
Mr. President
Page Two
September 4, 1991
We obviously would adjust the conference schedule over those
several days to fit your convenience, but opportunities would
include your speaking at an opening dinner on April 2, or a
luncheon or dinner on April 3, or a breakfast session April 3 or
4. The events all will be held at the Marriott Marquis Hotel.
We know that Mrs. Bush has long been supportive of the forum
cosponsor, Spelman College, and we would all be honored if she
were able to accompany you to Atlanta.
We very much appreciate your consideration of this invitation
and will be deeply appreciative of a favorable response.
Respectfully,
G.R.K
PRK:dt
bc: Miller
Coston
Hunt
10/17/91 17:30
313 668 6249
COLDWATER CORP
005
THE WHITE HOUSE
9/23
WASHINGTON
September 16, 1991
Dear Mr. Kann:
Thank you for your invitation for the President to address
the Black Entrepreneurship in America forum, April 2-4, 1992.
We appreciate your extending this opportunity to the President.
Although we are unable to make a commitment at this time, we
are making a special note of this date. Your invitation will
be carefully reviewed as the President's schedule develops, and
we will be back in touch with you closer to the time about the
possibility of his acceptance.
With best wishes,
Sincerely,
Katteria L.Super
KATHERINE L. SUPER
Deputy Assistant to the President
for Appointments and Scheduling
Mr. Peter R. Kann
Chairman and Publisher
Dow Jones and Company, Inc.
200 Liberty Street
New York, NY 10281
bc: Miller
Coston
Hunt
10/17/91 17:30
313 668 6249
COLDWATER CORP
006
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
DOW JONES & COMPANY, INC.
Publishers
BCC LIBERTY STREET - NEW YORK, N, Y, 10251
PETER R. MANN
Publisher & Chairman
September 24, 1991
Katherine L. Super
Deputy Assistant to the President
for Appointments and Scheduling
The White House
Washington, D.C.
Dear Ms. Super:
Thank you for your encouraging response to our invitation to
the President to address our Black Entrepreneurship conference in
Atlanta, April 2-4.
I certainly understand the obstacles to making a commitment
at this time, but we very much appreciate your assistance in
having the invitation actively considered for inclusion on the
President's schedule as it develops.
With thanks and best wishes.
Sincerely,
GIV
PRK:rp
bc: Miller
Coston
Hunt