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Originally Processed With FOIA(s): foia Number: 1998-0004-F[1] S FOIA MARKER This is not a textual record. This is used as an administrative marker by the George Bush Presidential Library Staff. Record Group/Collection: George H.W. Bush Presidential Records Collection/Office of Origin: Chief of Staff, White House Office of Series: Sununu, John, Files Subseries: Issues Files OA/ID Number: 29171 Folder ID Number: 29171-005 Folder Title: Social Security (Moynihan) (1990) Stack: Row: Section: Shelf: Position: G 15 25 4 2 THE CHAIRMAN OF THE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS WASHINGTON February 22, 1990 THE CHIEF of STAFF has seen MEMORANDUM FOR JOHN H. SUNUNU CHIEF OF STAFF TO THE PRESIDENT FROM: MICHAEL J. BOSKIN mm SUBJECT: Meeting with Representative John E. Porter (R-IL) At his request, I met Tuesday with Representative Porter concerning his proposal to create Individual Social Security Retirement Accounts (ISSRAs). Representative Porter felt the need to encourage the President to "show leadership" on the Social Security issue. I stressed that the Administration's proposal to save the Social Security surpluses is a strong, innovative plan that is superior to the Porter plan (see below). I noted that the Administration valued creative thinking on any and all issues and that we are sympathetic to his general goals for Social Security: - protecting the integrity of the Social Security system for current and future beneficiaries; - preparing for the retirement of the baby-boom generation by ensuring that projected Social Security surpluses are not used to fund an explosion of new spending; and - raising the low rate of national saving. At the same time, I made clear that the Administration is committed to the President's pledge to not "mess around" with Social Security. In particular (see below) we firmly reject any privatization proposal. Representative Porter briefly outlined the general character of his plan. Without endorsing his approach in any way, I discussed both potential difficulties with the plan and further issues for his study: - Social Security is a very special program. Among other features, it offers an inflation-protected annuity for retirees. No private market investment plan can duplicate this feature since there are no securities that guarantee a positive real return (e.g., an indexed government bond). 2 - Similarly, a private market investment cannot guarantee a positive real return to contributions made during working years. - Representative Porter's approach leans heavily upon the additional income he anticipates from investing in securities--particularly AAA-rated corporate bonds--that offer higher returns than Treasury securities. He seemingly recognizes neither that seeking these higher returns requires assuming additional risk in retirement income nor that the difference in yields may narrow in response to such a large change in market investment patterns. - Social Security addresses a wide range of insurance needs such as disability, surviving spouses, and dependent children. Social Security also provides an adequate minimum benefit in part through a progressive benefit formula. The Porter plan does not currently address these issues and such complications as nonworking spouses, divorce, and non-traditional families. - The pay-as-you-go approach to Social Security produced a large unfunded liability. When completely implemented, the Porter plan would fully fund benefits, with each worker being taxed for his or her benefits. Initially, however, the plan would both meet the current unfunded liability and fully fund future benefits. This necessarily involves double-taxing current workers to meet both needs. o The General Accounting Office is currently studying the plan at his request. He intends to keep the Council informed of both the results of the study and any further developments. CC: Richard G. Darman, Director, OMB Nicholas F. Brady, Secretary of the Treasury Roger B. Porter, Assistant to the President for Economic and Domestic Policy Withdrawal/Redaction Sheet (George Bush Library) Document No. Subject/Title of Document Date Restriction Class. and Type 01. Memo From Roger Porter to John Sununu 1/22/90 P/5 Re: More on Moynihan and Social Security (1 pp.) Collection: Record Group: Bush Presidential Records Office: Chief of Staff, White House Office of Open on Expiration of PRA (Document Follows) Series: Sununu, John, Files Subseries: Issues Files By If (NLGB) on 5/12/05 WHORM Cat.: File Location: 1990 Social Security (Moynihan) Date Closed: 12/11/2004 OA/ID Number: 29171-005 FOIA/SYS Case #: 1998-0004-F[1] Appeal Case #: Re-review Case #: 2005-0426-S Appeal Disposition: P-2/P-5 Review Case #: Disposition Date: AR Case #: MR Case #: AR Disposition: MR Disposition: AR Disposition Date: MR Disposition Date: RESTRICTION CODES Presidential Records Act - [44 U.S.C. 2204(a)] Freedom of Information Act - [5 U.S.C. 552(b)] P-1 National Security Classified Information [(a)(1) of the PRA] (b)(1) National security classified information [(b)(1) of the FOIA] P-2 Relating to the appointment to Federal office [(a)(2) of the PRA] (b)(2) Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of an P-3 Release would violate a Federal statute [(a)(3) of the PRA] agency [(b)(2) of the FOIA] P-4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or (b)(3) Release would violate a Federal statute [(b)(3) of the FOIA] financial information [(a)(4) of the PRA] (b)(4) Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial P-5 Release would disclose confidential advice between the President information [(b)(4) of the FOIA] and his advisors, or between such advisors [a)(5) of the PRA] (b)(6) Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of P-6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of personal privacy [(b)(6) of the FOIA] personal privacy [(a)(6) of the PRA] (b)(7) Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement purposes [(b)(7) of the FOIA] C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed of (b)(8) Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of gift. financial institutions [(b)(8) of the FOIA] (b)(9) Release would disclose geological or geophysical information PRM. Removed as a personal record misfile. THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON January 22, 1990 THE CHIEF of STAFF has seen MEMORANDUM FOR GOVERNOR SUNUNU FROM: ROGER B. PORTER RBP SUBJECT: More on Moynihan and Social Security I asked Larry Lindsey, of our staff, to look at what Senator Moynihan would do to finance his $55 billion Social Security tax cut if he chose not to reduce spending or to conveniently forget Gramm-Rudman-Hollings. Larry's memorandum is attached, and shows what would have to be done with respect to the current marginal income tax rates to generate the kind of income envisioned in Moynihan's proposal. Once again, Senator Moynihan is skating on very thin ice. Attachment THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON January 18, 1990 MEMORANDUM FOR ROGER B. PORTER FROM: LARRY LINDSEY SUBJECT: Paying for Moynihan Without Raising Capital Gains Taxes This memorandum is in response to your further inquiry about how Moynihan might finance his $55 billion Social Security tax cut by raising income taxes. For a number of reasons, not the least of which is that we are currently at or above the revenue maximizing capital gains tax rate, Moynihan might have to exclude gains from any rate increase. Needless to say, the necessary tax rate increase under this assumption would be far greater than that previously reported. Tax Base Including and Excluding Capital Gains The table presents the number of dollars of taxable income expected in each tax bracket in 1991 with capital gains in the tax base and with capital gains excluded from the base. This latter assumption is the one which should be used in evaluating rate increases with the top capital gains rate frozen at some level like 15 or 20 percent. Distribution of Income Tax Base Tax Bracket Taxable Income T.I. Excluding Capital Gains 15% $ 1623 billion $ 1602 billion "low" 28% $ 521 billion $ 485 billion 33% $ 173 billion $ 129 billion "high" 28% $ 228 billion $ 93 billion Previously it was noted that if we assume no behavioral response by taxpayers and include capital gains in the tax base, Moynihan could finance the Social Security tax increase by (1) increasing the present "low" 28% bracket to 33% and (2) increasing the present 33% bracket and the "high" 28% brackets to 38%. In order to finance the $55 billion cut without raising the tax rate on gains, Moynihan would have to add an additional 7 points to the top tax rates as well as eliminating the bubble. This would take the "low" 28% rate up to 35% and the 33% and "high" 28% rates up to 40%. Of course, even these assumptions presume no behavioral response by taxpayers with respect to their earning or deduction behavior. My own research as well as that of others indicates that this is an extreme assumption. However, it is unlikely that the Treasury or CBO scoring processes would take any non-capital gains behavioral response into account. This represents the proposal as announced on December 28, 1989 and not the bill as introduced today. January 23, 1990 SENATOR MOYNIHAN'S SOCIAL SECURITY PROPOSAL Senator Moynihan has announced that he will introduce legislation on January 23, 1990 to cut the Social Security payroll tax rate. This memo a. Outlines current law; b. Describes Senator Moynihan's proposal; and C. Outlines pros and cons. A. CURRENT LAW The 1983 Social Security Amendments set payroll tax rates to accumulate a Social Security Trust Fund surplus. That surplus would then be available to help finance the retirement benefits of the baby boom generation. SOCIAL SECURITY TAX RATES Employee Employer Share Share Total 1984 - 1987 5.70% 5.70% 11.40% 1988 - 1989 6.06% 6.06% 12.12% 1990 and after 6.20% 6.20% 12.40% NOTE: This does not include the 1.45% payroll tax for the Medicare Hospital Insurance (Part A) program. The tax is paid on annual earnings of up to $51,300 in 1990. No tax is paid on earnings above that amount. The $51,300 limit -- the so-called wage base -- is increased each year based on year-to-year growth in the national average wage. B. SENATOR MOYNIHAN'S PLAN The plan has two parts: 1. Repeal the 1990 increase. For 1990, Senator Moynihan would reduce the rate from 6.20% each on employer and employee to the 1989 level of 6.06%. Estimated 1990 cost: $7 billion. -2- 2. Beginning in 1991, Shift Social Security to Pay-As-You-Go Financing. a. For 1991 - 2014, Senator Moynihan would cut the payroll tax rate dramatically to 5.1%. This would return Social Security to so-called "pay-as-you-go" financing, under which a given year's benefits are paid for by that year's payroll tax receipts. Social Security operated under pay-as-you-go for many years prior to 1983. Estimated 1991 cost: $55 billion. b. For 2015 - 2045, Senator Moynihan would increase the tax rate significantly in order to pay the baby boom retirement benefits. Senator Moynihan estimates it would jump to 6.0% in the year 2015 and reach 7.6% by 2025. Basically, Senator Moynihan trades a lower payroll tax rate in the next 25 years (1990 - 2015) for a higher rate in later years (2015 - 2049). The following shows tax rates under current law and Senator Moynihan's plan: SOCIAL SECURITY TAX RATE EMPLOYEE SHARE ONLY (MATCHED BY EMPLOYER) Current Law Senator Moynihan* (Build Surplus) (Pay-As-You-Go) (These are preliminary estimates provided by Moynihan's staff.) 1984 - 1987 5.70% Not applicable 1988 - 1989 6.06% Not applicable 1990 6.20% 6.06% 1991 6.20% 5.10% 1992 6.20% 5.10% 2015 6.20% 6.0% 2020 6.20% 6.80% 2025 6.20% 7.60% 2049 6.20% *Awaiting estimates -3- Note: These rates do not include the payroll tax of 1.45% for Medicare Hospital Insurance (Part A) Coverage because the proposal affects only the tax rate for the Old Age, Survivors, and Disability (OASDI) program. The proposal would not change the current rate of 1.45% for Medicare Part A. Nor does it change the wage base of $51,300 in 1990. to John SUNUM This is a weynu lund - conservative Movement document. FYC 1/24/90 New Y25790 ANSWERING MOYNIHAN Senator Moynihan's proposal to cut Social Security taxes has created political chaos in the Republican Party and the conservative movement. This paper proposes an answer to Scn. Moynihan. PREMISES 1. The Social Security surplusses are in fact being used to finance Federal spending and mask the deficit. They are not being "saved" to fund the retirement of the baby boom generation. In this, Sen. Moynihan is right. : 2. The Moynihan plan would eliminate the surplusses, but not resolve the problem of funding the baby boom's retirement. 3. Regardless of what demographic and economic assumptions are made, funding the baby boom's retirement on a pay-as-you-go basis would require undesirable tax rates increases and reduce America's economic growth in the 21st century. 4. In the absence of an alternative, many conservatives and business groups will support the Moynihan plan, as will most American taxpayers, especially young workers. At a minimum, this will create strains within the Republican party. At worst, it could result in severe political damage to the Administration, the Republican party and the conservative movement. 5. Economic growth has outstripped what was anticipated in the 1983 Greenspan Commission report. The surplus is therefore larger than is needed at this time. This justifies rolling back the 1990 FICA rate increase, but does not justify Moynihan's proposal for a $55 billion 1991 FICA tax cut. 6. Increased reliance on private savings to fund retirement benefits is a desirable policy objective. 7. Proposals (e.g. Cong. Porter's and Sen. Symm's) to rely on private savings to ameliorate the long-run Social Security financing problem cannot achieve critical mass within the time frame of the debate over the Moynihan plan (i.e. Spring 1990). 8. The Moynihan proposal has created an opportunity to reshape the political landscape, and adoption of a plan like Porter's or Symm's is within the realm of possibility within a period of 12-24 months. ANSWERING MOYNIHAN, Page 2 PROPOSED STRATEGY The Administration should respond to Senator Moynihan by: 1. Accepting -- indeed, embracing -- the rollback of the 1990 FICA tax rate increase, on the grounds that the Rcagan-Bush expansion has yielded more revenues than anyone anticipated in 1983, and that tax cuts are good for economic growth. 2. Explaining that the surplus is the result of a bi-partisan commission that Sen. Moynihan participated in in 1983 and is intended to ensure that today's workers get their benefits. 3. Suggesting that if Sen. Moynihan thinks his 1983 plan is failing, it may indecd be time to take a careful look to see if it is doing what he said it would do. 4. Insisting that any consideration of major changes in Social Security should be delibcrate and non-partisan -- not part of a politically-charged election-year debate. 5. Proposing the creation of a bi-partisan commission to review the 1983 compromise and suggest changes, if any, that may be needed. It should report back in January 1991. DISCUSSION The Moynihan "grenade" is now on trajectory to explode in Republican territory. The immediate objective is to bat that thing back up in the air. At a minimum, the above proposal would accomplish this objective. A longer-run objective is to increase reliance on private savings to fund the baby boom's retirement. A properly-constituted commission could explore means of accomplishing this objective. At a minimum, a year's breathing space would give proponents of such proposals (Porter, Symms, etc.) a chance to demonstrate whether political support exists for their ideas. If not, the commission can propose the status quo. If so, other options would be available. Would Democrats object to the creation of a new commission? Republicans? Hardly. In all likelihood, nearly everyone would be thrilled to sec the pin put back in this particular grenade. (However, this is true only until positions begin to gel. Thus, the above steps should be taken ASAP -- e.g. in the State of the Union.) Voters would also applaud the President. If there is one issue where the public wants to see deliberate decisionmaking, it is Social Security. THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON January 18, 1990 MEMORANDUM FOR JOHN H. SUNUNU THROUGH: Frederick D. McClure 7m FROM: Brian Waidmann, Special Assistant for Legislative Affairs SUBJECT: Senator Bentsen's views on the Moynihan Social Security Tax Cut and on Capital Gains Senator Bentsen, chairman of the Senate Finance Committee that has jurisdiction over Social Security, is in the Soviet Union this week talking to officials there about trade agreements. His top staffer, Senate Finance Committee Staff Director Van McMurtry reports the following: * Senator Bentsen's visceral reaction when he heard about the Moynihan Social Security proposal is that he did not like it, and thought it was trouble. He is meeting with his staff Monday to decide how to proceed, then will talk to Senators Mitchell, Moynihan and Sasser. * The staff will recommend that Senator Bentsen hold lengthy hearings on the proposal to see if that will calm the waters. They want Sen. Bentsen to say that this proposal needs careful study to determine its true ramifications. They may also get the issue tied up with a host of other issues, including the possibility of a multi-year budget agreement. * If this strategy does not work, he fears a stampede on the Senate floor. * As far as he knows, only Senators Pell, Baucus and Kasten have signed on as cosponsors. He floated the possibility of the combined Congressional leadership and the White House opposing Moynihan. On capital gains: * Senator Bentsen wants the White House to know that he wants to work with us on capital gains and savings incentives. He thinks a package can be worked out that would attract 80 votes. He says Senator Bentsen is not out to trap the White House into backing higher tax rates. - 2 - * He wants Treasury staff authorized to work out a package that would be deficit neutral. * He wants to negotiate with Treasury and the White House, and not Senator Mitchell. If those negotiations were successful, he would bring along Senator Mitchell, or at least minimize his opposition. * He says the key to making this package work is to make it deficit neutral. I pointed out that if Senator Moynihan appears to be on the verge of success in his $55 billion blowout of the budget without offsets, it hardly seems realistic to impose fiscal discipline on our capital gains talks. * Senator Bentsen is meeting with Secretary Brady and Director Darman next week to explore options. He wants the opportunity to discuss this with the President shortly thereafter. Withdrawal/Redaction Sheet (George Bush Library) Document No. Subject/Title of Document Date Restriction Class. and Type 02. Memo From Roger Porter to John Sununu 1/18/90 Re: Social Security and Regressivity (1 pp.) Collection: Record Group: Bush Presidential Records Office: Chief of Staff, White House Office of Open on Expiration of PRA Series: Sununu, John, Files (Document Follows) Subseries: Issues Files By H (NLGB) on 5/12/05 WHORM Cat.: File Location: 1990 Social Security (Moynihan) Date Closed: 12/11/2004 OA/ID Number: 29171-005 FOIA/SYS Case #: 1998-0004-F[1] Appeal Case #: Re-review Case #: 2005-0426-S Appeal Disposition: P-2/P-5 Review Case #: Disposition Date: AR Case #: MR Case #: AR Disposition: MR Disposition: AR Disposition Date: MR Disposition Date: RESTRICTION CODES Presidential Records Act - [44 U.S.C. 2204(a)] Freedom of Information Act - [5 U.S.C: 552(b)] P-1 National Security Classified Information [(a)(1) of the PRA] (b)(1) National security classified information [(b)(1) of the FOIA] P-2 Relating to the appointment to Federal office [(a)(2) of the PRA] (b)(2) Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of an P-3 Release would violate a Federal statute [(a)(3) of the PRA] agency [(b)(2) of the FOIA] P-4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or (b)(3) Release would violate a Federal statute [(b)(3) of the FOIA] financial information [(a)(4) of the PRA] (b)(4) Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial P-5 Release would disclose confidential advice between the President information [(b)(4) of the FOIA] and his advisors, or between such advisors [a)(5) of the PRA] (b)(6) Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of P-6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of personal privacy [(b)(6) of the FOIA] personal privacy [(a)(6) of the PRA] (b)(7) Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement purposes [(b)(7) of the FOIA] C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed of (b)(8) Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of gift. financial institutions [(b)(8) of the FOIA] (b)(9) Release would disclose geological or geophysical information PRM. Removed as a personal record misfile THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON January 18, 1990 MEMORANDUM FOR GOVERNOR SUNUNU FROM: ROGER B. PORTER RBP SUBJECT: Social Security and Regressivity One of the frequent claims made is that the social security system in general and the social security payroll tax specifically are highly regressive. I asked Larry Lindsey to examine the effect of the increased ceiling -- up to $51,300 of earnings -- and the effect of the progressive benefit schedule on the question of how regressive the social security system really is. His memorandum, which is attached, should provide some useful ammunition in the days ahead. Attachment THE WHITE HOUSE washington January 17, 1990 MEMORANDUM FOR ROGER B. PORTER FROM: LARRY LINDSEY SUBJECT: Social Security and Regressivity Much of the liberal support for Senator Moynihan's proposal to cut Social Security taxes has centered on the allegedly "regressive" nature of the Social Security tax. In fact, there is good reason to believe that the alleged regressivity of the tax is greatly exaggerated. 1. By definition, the Social Security tax is "regressive". The Social Security tax is levied at a flat percentage rate up to a given level of income or "ceiling". In 1990, employers and employees are both taxed at a 7.65 percent rate on the first $51,300 of earnings. The alleged regressivity comes from two factors. First, earnings over the ceiling are not subject to tax. Second, only wage income is subject to tax, not capital income such as interest and dividends. Capital income tends to be concentrated among higher income taxpayers. 2. Still, in 1991, the top 10 percent of American taxpayers collectively will pay one third more Social Security tax than the bottom 50 percent. The fact that the Social Security ceiling is SO high means that 89 percent of all wage and salary income is covered by Social Security. Roughly 94 percent of all American families see their entire wage and salary income covered by Social Security. Thus, for the vast majority of the population, the Social Security tax is proportional. The table presents estimates for 1991 of the percent of total income, income tax, and social security tax paid by various groups in the population. Taxpayer Approximate Percent of Percent of Percent of Group Income Range Income SocSecTax Income Tax Top 1% over $150,000 12.1% 2.1% 27.1% Next 4% $80,000-$150,000 13.2% 9.9% 17.3% Next 5% $60,000-$80,000 11.3% 12.2% 11.7% Next 10% $45,000-$60,000 17.3% 20.3% 15.4% Next 10% $36,000-$45,000 13.3% 16.3% 10.3% Next 20% $21,000-$36,000 18.2% 21.2% 12.1% Bottom 50% under $21,000 14.6% 18.0% 6.1% 3. It is also important to keep in mind that Social Security is a tax-transfer system. The combined system is quite progressive. Social Security benefits are tied to lifetime wages and thus to lifetime tax payments. But, the relationship is not linear. A progressive benefit schedule which is heavily weighted toward individuals with relatively low lifetime wages skews benefits toward relatively low income individuals. The following table provides average monthly benefits for retirees aged 65 at different earnings level. It is assumed that earnings over the individuals' worklife kept pace with the average growth in earnings and that therefore the individuals relative earnings were constant throughout their lives. In addition, the table provides the amount of benefits received in comparison to taxes paid for each worker relative to a worker earning $10,000. A Relative Benefit to Tax Ratio of 0.5 means that the Social Security system was only half as good a deal for that individual as for a worker with an income of $10,000. For the vast majority of workers currently retiring, the Social Security system does provide a net "good deal". As the system matures, however, increasing numbers of higher income workers will find themselves net losers from the system while lower income workers will, on net, be beneficiaries. 1989 Annual 1990 Monthly Relative Benefit Earnings Benefits to Tax Ratio $10,000 $456 1.00 $20,000 $708 0.76 $30,000 $896 0.65 $48,000 $974 0.44 $70,000 $975 0.44 Two other factors should be noted. First, upper income retirees are quite likely to have half of their Social Security benefits subject to the personal income tax. This will reduce the after-tax benefits for these retirees and thus further increase the relative progressivity of the system. Second, the actual net benefits of the system depend on the worker's life span and marital status. In general, higher income workers live longer and thus receive relatively greater benefits, in actuarial terms, than lower income workers. On the other hand, single earner married couples do significantly better in terms of benefits received relative to taxes paid than do two earner married couples. As two earner couples tend to have higher lifetime incomes, this factor may enhance the progressivity of the system overall. I 101ST CONGRESS 1ST SESSION H.R.3505 To amend title II of the Social Security Act to assure the continuing financial solvency of the OASDI Trust Funds, and to require periodic reports by the Board of Trustees of the Trust Funds regarding the actuarial balance of the Trust Funds. IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES OCTOBER 23, 1989 Mr. ROSTENKOWSKI (for himself, Mr. JACOBS, Mr. PICKLE, Mr. GIBBONS, Mr. RANGEL, Mr. STARK, Mr. FORD of Tennessee, Mr. JENKINS, Mr. DOWNEY, Mr. GUARINI, Mr. Russo, Mr. PEASE, Mr. MATSUI, Mr. ANTHONY, Mr. FLIPPO, Mr. DORGAN of North Dakota, Mrs. KENNELLY, Mr. DONNELLY, Mr. COYNE, Mr. ANDREWS, Mr. LEVIN of Michigan, Mr. MOODY, and Mr. CARDIN) introduced the following bill; which was referred jointly to the Committees on Ways and Means and Rules A BILL To amend title II of the Social Security Act to assure the continuing financial solvency of the OASDI Trust Funds, and to require periodic reports by the Board of Trustees of the Trust Funds regarding the actuarial balance of the Trust Funds. 1 Be it enacted by the Senate and House of Representa- 2 tives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, 3 SECTION 1. SHORT TITLE. 4 This Act may be cited as the "Social Security Solvency 5 Protection Act of 1989". 2 1 SEC. 2. PROTECTION OF OASDI TRUST FUNDS. 2 Section 201 of the Social Security Act (42 U.S.C. 401) 3 is amended by adding at the end the following new sub- 4 section: 5 "(n)(1) It shall not be in order in the House of Repre- 6 sentatives or the Senate to consider any bill or resolution, or 7 any-amendment thereto or conference report thereon, if upon 8 enactment such legislation- 9 "(A) would provide for a net increase in benefits 10 under sections 202, 223, and 228 of more than- 11 "(i) $100,000,000 for a period comprising 12 the fiscal year during which the legislation would 13 be enacted and the next 5 fiscal years, or 14 "(ii) an amount which is equivalent to the 15 amount specified in clause (i) with respect to the 16 period referred to in clause (i) but which is further 17 projected under identical actuarial assumptions 18 over a period comprising the calendar year during 19 which the legislation would be enacted and the 20 next 74 calendar years, 21 without providing at least a net increase, for the same 22 period referred to in clause (i) or (ii), in the taxes im- 23 posed under sections 1401(a), 3101(a), 3111(a), 24 3201(a), 3211(a), and 3221(a) of the Internal Revenue 25 Code of 1986, and chapter 1 of such Code (to the 26 extent attributable to changes in section 86 of such HR 3505 IH 3 1 Code), of an amount by which the net increase in such 2 benefits exceeds the amount specified in such clause; or 3 "(B) would amend one or more of the provisions 4 comprising sections 86, 1401(a), 3101(a), 3111(a), 5 3201(a), 3211(a), and 3221(a) of such Code SO as to 6 provide for a net decrease in the taxes imposed under 7 such provisions, and chapter 1 of such Code (to the 8 extent attributable to changes in such section 86), of 9 more than- 10 "(i) the amount specified in subparagraph 11 (A)(i) for the period referred to therein, or 12 "(ii) the amount specified in subparagraph 13 (A)(ii) for the period referred to therein, 14 without providing for at least a net decrease, for the 15 same period referred to in clause (i) or (ii), in such ben- 16 efits of an amount by which the net decrease in such 17 taxes exceeds the amount specified in such clause. 18 "(2) For purposes of this subsection, all estimates of 19 revenues and outlays shall be made by the Congressional 20 Budget Office, in consultation with the Director of the Joint 21 Committee on Taxation. 22 "(3) The point of order set forth in paragraph (1) may be 23 waived or suspended in the Senate only by the affirmative 24 vote of three-fifths of the Members, duly chosen and sworn.". HR 3505 IH 4 1 SEC. 3. REPORT TO THE CONGRESS BY THE BOARD OF TRUST- 2 EES OF THE OASDI TRUST FUNDS REGARDING 3 THE ACTUARIAL BALANCE OF THE TRUST 4 FUNDS. 5 Section 201(c) of the Social Security Act (42 U.S.C. 6 401(c)) is amended by inserting, after the first sentence fol- 7 lowing clause (5), the following new sentence: "Such state- 8 ment shall include a finding as to whether the Federal Old- 9 Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund and the Federal 10 Disability Insurance Trust Fund, individually and collec- 11 tively, are in close actuarial balance, as determined by the 12 Board of Trustees.". 2505 no Sac Std 34 TABLE 10.- SELECTED ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS BY ALTERNATIVE, CALENDAR YEARS 1960-2065 (Cont.) Average annual percentage increase in- Average Average annual Average annual wage Consumer Real-wage annual in- unemploy- in covered Price differential* Tyem Date terest rate* ment rate' Calendar year Real GNP' employment Index (percent) (percent) (percent) Alternative I: 1988 3.9 6.4 4.0 2.4 8.8 5.5 1989 3.7 6.4 3.8 2.6 9.3 5.2 1990 3.6 5.5 3.0 2.4 8.7 5.0 1991 3.6 5.4 2.8 2.5 7.8 5.0 1992 3.4 5.0 2.5 2.5 6.9 4.9 1993 3.3 4.7 2.3 2.5 6.2 4.9 1994 3.2 4.4 2.1 2.3 5.5 4.8 1995 3.2 4.1 2.0 2.1 4.9 4.7 1996 3.0 4.0 2.0 2.0 4.7 4.7 1997 2.9 4.1 2.0 2.1 4.9 4.7 1998 2.9 4.1 2.0 2.1 5.0 4.7 2000 3.1 4.3 2.0 2.2 5.0 5.0 2010 & later' 2.6 4.2 2.0 2.2 5.0 5.0 Alternative II-A: 1988 3.9 6.4 4.0 2.4 8.8 5.5 1989 3.2 6.0 3.9 2.1 9.3 5.2 1990 3.2 5.5 3.7 1.8 9.0 5.1 1991 3.1 5.1 3.2 1.9 8.2 5.1 1992 2.9 5.0 3.0 2.0 7.5 5.1 Now 6.2% 1993 2.8 5.0 3.0 2.0 6.7 5.2 1994 2.7 4.9 3.0 1.9 6.2 5.2 1995 2.6 4.7 Now 3.0 1.7 5.8 5.2 1996 2.6 4.7 3.0 1.7 5.6 5.2 1997 2.6 4.8 3.0 1.6 5.6 5.2 Actually 1998 2.5 4.7 3.0 1.7 5.6 5.2 2000 2.6 4.8 3.0 1.7 5.5 5.5 2010 & later' 2.1 4.7 3.0 1.7 5.5 5.5 Alternative II-B: T 1988 3.8 6.4 4.0 2.4 8.8 5.5 PRODENT ASSUMP. 1989 2.6 6.2 4.8 1.4 9.5 5.4 1990 2.6 5.3 4.5 .8 9.4 5.5 1991 2.6 5.5 4.5 1.0 HHS 9.1 5.5 1992 2.5 5.6 4.3 1.2 8.6 5.5 1993 2.5 5.8 4.2 1.6 8.0 5.5 1994 2.4 5.6 4.0 1.6 7.4 5.5 1995 2.3 5.5 L 4.0 1.5 6.9 5.5 1996 2.3 5.5 4.0 1.5 6.6 5.6 1997 2.3 5.6 4.0 1.6 6.4 5.6 1998 2.2 5.4 4.0 1.4 6.2 5.6 2000 2.2 5.4 4.0 1.3 6.0 6.0 2010 & later' 1.8 5.3 4.0 1.3 6.0 6.0 Alternative HI: 1988 3.8 5.2 4.0 1.2 8.8 5.5 Soc 1989 -.6 4.7 5.4 -.8 9.7 5.9 1990 .9 5.4 5.8 -.4 10.1 6.7 1991 2.4 6.4 6.4 (*) 10.5 6.4 1992 1.2 5.8 6.3 -.5 10.3 6.2 Returnes 1993 -.7 4.6 5.0 -.3 8.6 7.2 1994 2.7 6.8 5.3 1.5 8.8 6.9 1995 1.9 5.9 5.0 .9 7.9 6.7 1996 1.8 5.9 5.0 .9 7.5 6.6 1997 1.6 6.0 5.0 1.0 7.2 6.5 1998 1.6 5.8 5.0 .8 6.8 6.5 2000 1.7 5.9 5.0 .8 6.5 7.0 2010 & later' 1.2 5.8 5.0 .8 6.5 7.0 The real GNP (gross national product) is the value of total output of goods and services, expressed in 1982 dollars. The Consumer Price Index is the average of the 12 monthly values of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). The real-wage differential is the difference between the percentage increases, before rounding, in (1) the average annual wage in covered employment, and (2) the average annual Consumer Price Index. The average annual interest rate is the average of the nominal interest rates, which, in practice, are compounded semiannually, for special public-debt obligations issuable to the trust funds in each of the 12 months of the year. Through 1998, the rates shown are crude civilian unemployment rates. After 1998, the rates are total rates (including military personnel), adjusted by age and sex based on the estimated total labor force on July 1, 1988. *Preliminary. This value is for 2010. The annual percentage increase in real GNP is assumed to continue to change after 2010 for each alternative to reflect the dependence of labor force growth on the size and age-sex distribution of the population. The increases for 2065 are 2.7, 1.8, 1.5, and 0.5 percent for alternatives I. II-A, II-B, and III. respectively. This value is between 0.05 percent and -0.05 percent. BASE CASE (ALTERNATIVE II-B) ($ TRILLIONS) 4.0 3.5 3.0 TOTAL INCOME 2.5 2.0 NONINTEREST INCOME 1.5 phone 1.0 OUTGO INTEREST INCOME 0.5 SURPLUS 0 0.5 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029 DATA FROM THE 1989 TRUSTEES REPORT ($ BILLIONS) BASE CASE (ALTERNATIVE II-B) Even in a fay as you OASDI go system INCOME Hus a reserve EXCLUDING TOTAL YEAR-END TOTAL INTEREST INTEREST OUTGO SURPLUS ASSETS 1989 294.2 281.2 13.1 235.7 58.5 168.3 1990 322.2 303.3 18.9 253.2 69.1 237.3 1991 347.2 321.8 25.4 270.3 76.9 314.2 1992 374.4 342.2 32.2 287.9 86.5 400.7 1993 404.1 364.8 39.2 306.4 97.6 498.4 18 morth rale 1994 435.6 389.0 46.7 324.8 110.8 609.1 1995 468.3 414.1 54.2 343.8 124.5 733.6 1996 502.6 440.7 62.0 363.9 138.7 872.3 1997 538.4 468.2 70.2 385.2 153.2 1,025.5 1998 576.9 497.7 79.2 408.1 168.8 1,194.3 1999 617.1 528.5 88.6 432.2 184.9 1,379.2 2000 660.4 562.1 98.3 457.7 202.7 1,581.8 2001 706.0 597.9 108.1 484.8 221.2 1,803.1 2002 753.5 635.5 118.0 513.5 240.0 2,043.1 2003 803.0 675.2 127.8 544.6 258.4 2,301.4 2004 861.1 717.4 143.8 578.4 282.7 2,584.2 2005 923.2 762.0 161.2 614.9 308.3 2,892.5 2006 989.0 808.9 180.1 654.5 334.6 3,227.0 2007 1,058.3 857.7 200.6 697.3 361.0 3,588.0 2008 1,131.5 908.9 222.6 744.9 386.6 3,974.7 2009 1,207.9 961.8 246.0 798.1 409.7 4,384.4 2010 1,288.2 1,017.4 270.8 857.0 431.2 4,815.6 2011 1,372.1 1,075.4 296.7 921.3 450.8 5,266.4 2012 1,459.4 1,135.7 323.7 992.6 466.8 5,733.2 2013 1,550.7 1,199.2 351.5 1,071.0 479.7 6,213.0 2014 1,645.3 1,265.3 380.0 1,156.5 488.8 6,701.8 2015 1,743.7 1,334.8 408.9 1,249.4 494.3 7,196.1 2016 1,845.3 1,407.4 437.9 1,350.6 494.7 7,690.9 2017 1,950.4 1,483.6 466.8 1,460.5 489.9 8,180.8 2018 2,058.8 1,563.6 495.2 1,578.3 480.5 8,661.3 2019 2,170.8 1,647.8 523.0 1,704.3 466.5 9,127.8 2020 2,286.2 1,736.4 549.8 1,838.4 447.8 9,575.6 2021 2,404.4 1,829.2 575.3 1,980.5 424.0 9,999.6 2022 2,526.1 1,926.9 599.2 2,130.9 395.2 10,394.8 2023 2,650.9 2,029.6 621.3 2,289.9 361.0 10,755.8 2024 2,778.9 2,137.7 641.2 2,456.8 322.1 11,077.8 2025 2,910.3 2,251.8 658.6 2,632.6 277.8 11,355.6 2026 3,045.0 2,371.8 673.2 2,817.5 227.5 11,583.1 2027 3,183.9 2,499.1 684.8 3,009.2 174.6 11,757.7 2028 3,326.7 2,633.6 693.1 3,208.7 118.0 11,875.7 2029 3,473.6 2,775.6 698.0 3,415.2 58.4 11,934.1 2030 3,624.7 2,925.4 699.3 3,629.0 (4.3) 11,929.8 ALTERNATIVE III ($ TRILLIONS) 5.0 4.0 OUTGO 3.0 2.0 TOTAL INCOME NONINTEREST INCOME 1.0 INTEREST INCOME 0 1.0 SURPLUS 2.0 3.0 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029 DATA FROM THE 1989 TRUSTEES REPORT ($ BILLIONS) ALTERNATIVE III OASDI INCOME EXCLUDING TOTAL YEAR-END TOTAL INTEREST INTEREST OUTGO SURPLUS ASSETS 1989 287.7 274.8 12.8 236.5 51.2 161.0 1990 309.3 291.6 17.8 256.0 53.4 214.3 1991 334.3 310.9 23.4 277.4 57.0 271.3 1992 363.2 333.7 29.5 301.6 61.7 332.9 1993 383.9 348.8 35.1 326.8 57.1 390.0 1994 414.3 373.8 40.4 349.9 64.4 454.4 1995 445.6 400.1 45.5 374.5 71.1 525.5 1996 479.0 428.6 50.4 400.9 78.1 603.6 1997 513.1 457.7 55.4 428.6 84.5 688.1 1998 548.8 488.5 60.3 458.6 90.3 778.4 1999 586.2 520.5 65.6 487.9 98.2 876.6 2000 626.2 555.9 70.3 519.0 107.2 983.8 2001 667.6 593.1 74.5 551.8 115.8 1,099.6 2002 710.6 632.3 78.3 587.0 123.6 1,223.2 2003 755.2 673.8 81.4 624.8 130.4 1,353.6 2004 808.8 718.8 90.1 666.1 142.7 1,496.2 2005 866.1 766.6 99.5 710.6 155:4 1,651.7 2006 926.5 816.8 109.7 758.7 167.8 1,819.5 2007 990.0 869.3 120.7 811.2 178.9 1,998.4 2008 1,057.0 924.7 132.3 868.9 188.1 2,186.4 2009 1,126.3 982.0 144.3 935.0 191.4 2,377.8 2010 1,198.9 1,042.5 156.4 1,008.2 190.7 2,568.5 2011 1,274.0 1,105.8 168.2 1,088.6 185.5 2,753.9 2012 1,351.2 1,171.6 179.5 1,177.3 173.9 2,927.8 2013 1,431.2 1,241.3 189.9 1,274.9 156.3 3,084.1 2014 1,512.8 1,313.9 198.8 1,381.9 130.9 3,215.0 2015 1,596.4 1,390.4 205.9 1,498.8 97.5 3,312.5 2016 1,680.9 1,470.3 210.5 1,626.8 54.0 3,366.6 2017 1,766.3 1,554.3 212.0 1,766.0 0.3 3,366.9 2018 1,852.4 1,642.7 209.7 1,917.2 (64.8) 3,302.1 2019 1,938.4 1,735.6 202.9 2,079.5 (141.1) 3,161.0 2020 2,024.4 1,833.6 190.8 2,253.3 (228.9) 2,932.1 2021 2,108.9 1,936.3 172.6 2,439.9 (330.9) 2,601.1 2022 2,191.9 2,044.4 147.5 2,638.6 (446.7) 2,154.4 2023 2,272.5 2,158.0 114.5 2,850.3 (577.8) 1,576.6 2024 2,350.4 2,277.8 72.6 3,075.8 (725.4) 851.3 2025 2,425.2 2,404.5 20.7 3,315.5 (890.3) (39.1) 2026 2,495.0 2,537.3 (42.3) 3,569.2 (1,074.2) (1,113.3) 2027 2,560.3 2,677.9 (117.6) 3,835.7 (1,275.4) (2,388.7) 2028 2,620.1 2,826.4 (206.3) 4,116.2 (1,496.1) (3,884.8) 2029 2,674.0 2,983.7 (309.7) 4,409.7 (1,735.7) (5,620.6) 2030 2,719.5 3,148.6 (429.1) 4,716.8 (1,997.3) (7,617.8) ALTERNATIVE I ($ TRILLIONS) 4.0 3.5 3.0 TOTAL 2.5 INCOME 2.0 NONINTEREST. 1.5 INCOME OUTGO 1.0 SURPLUS 0.5 INTEREST INCOME 0 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029 DATA FROM THE 1989 TRUSTEES REPORT ($ BILLIONS) ALTERNATIVE I OASDI INCOME EXCLUDING TOTAL YEAR-END TOTAL INTEREST INTEREST OUTGO SURPLUS ASSETS 1989 295.3 282.3 13.0 235.2 60.2 169.9 1990 324.4 305.6 18.8 249.5 74.9 244.8 1991 350.6 325.5 25.1 262.3 88.2 333.1 1992 376.9 345.5 31.5 274.9 102.0 435.1 1993 403.5 365.7 37.9 287.1 116.4 551.6 1994 430.2 386.1 44.1 299.1 131.1 682.7 1995 456.6 406.6 50.0 310.7 145.9 828.6 1996 483.5 427.6 56.0 322.9 160.7 989.3 1997 511.5 448.5 62.9 335.6 175.8 1,165.1 1998 541.9 470.9 71.0 349.3 192.6 1,357.7 1999 576.0 495.7 80.3 364.5 211.5 1,569.1 2000 612.6 522.4 90.1 380.4 232.2 1,801.3 2001 651.3 550.8 100.5 396.9 254.3 2,055.7 2002 691.6 580.3 111.2 414.5 277.0 2,332.7 2003 733.6 611.2 122.4 433.5 300.1 2,632.7 2004 780.6 642.8 137.8 454.3 326.4 2,959.1 2005 830.5 675.9 154.6 476.7 353.8 3,313.0 2006 883.0 710.2 172.8 500.8 382.2 3,695.1 2007 937.8 745.5 192.3 527.0 410.8 4,105.9 2008 995.3 782.1 213.3 556.5 438.9 4,544.8 2009 1,055.3 819.7 235.6 589.2 466.1 5,010.9 2010 1,118.1 858.9 259.2 625.2 492.9 5,503.8 2011 1,183.4 899.3 284.1 664.7 518.7 6,022.5 2012 1,251.3 941.0 310.3 708.5 542.8 6,565.3 2013 1,322.3 984.6 337.6 756.1 566.2 7,131.4 2014 1,395.6 1,029.6 366.0 807.7 587.9 7,719.4 2015 1,472.0 1,076.5 395.5 863.4 608.6 8,328.0 2016 1,551.0 1,125.1 425.9 923.6 627.4 8,955.4 2017 1,633.0 1,175.7 457.3 988.2 644.8 9,600.2 2018 1,718.0 1,228.6 489.4 1,056.7 661.3 10,261.5 2019 1,806.1 1,283.8 522.4 1,128.8 677.3 10,938.8 2020 1,897.7 1,341.6 556.1 1,204.4 693.3 11,632.1 2021 1,992.4 1,401.8 590.6 1,283.2 709.2 12,341.3 2022 2,090.6 1,464.7 625.9 1,364.9 725.7 13,067.0 2023 2,192.6 1,530.5 662.1 1,449.8 742.8 13,809.8 2024 2,298.5 1,599.5 699.1 1,537.5 761.0 14,570.8 2025 2,408.9 1,671.9 737.0 1,628.5 780.4 15,351.3 2026 2,523.5 1,747.6 775.9 1,722.0 801.6 16,152.8 2027 2,643.6 1,827.6 816.0 1,817.1 826.4 16,979.2 2028 2,769.2 1,911.8 857.4 1,914.2 855.0 17,834.2 2029 2,900.7 2,000.3 900.3 2,012.1 888.6 18,722.8 2030 3,038.2 2,093.1 945.0 2,111.5 926.7 19,649.5 ALTERNATIVE I ($ TRILLIONS) 4.0 3.5 3.0 TOTAL 2.5 INCOME 2.0 NONINTEREST. 1.5 INCOME OUTGO 1.0 SURPLUS 0.5 INTEREST INCOME 0 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029 FROM THE OFFICE OF Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan New York Friday, December 29, 1989 Contact: Brian Connolly 202/224-4451 A PROPOSAL TO CUT SOCIAL SECURITY TAXES Statement of Senator Daniel Patrick Meynihan (D.-N.Y.) Senate Radio-TV Gallery Room S-325, The Capitol Washington, DC On January 23, 1990, the first day of the next session of Congress, I will introduce a measure to repeal the scheduled increase in the Social Security tax immediately, and to return the system to a pay-as-you go basis beginning in 1991. This. will mean a tax cut in 1991 of approximately $500 for a couple with combined earnings at the Social Security taxable maximum (an estimated $54,300 in 1991). Savings in future years would be even greater. Why do I make such a proposal? Because the Social Security trust fund surpluses are being used to finance the deficit in the operating budget of the federal government. This masks the true size of the budget deficit and perverts the original purpose for the surpluses -- to provide for the retirement of the baby boom in the next century. I do not take this measure lightly, or without awareness of the complexity of the matter. To the contrary, at the beginning of this year I made it quite explicit that this option might have to be chosen. Specifically, the report of the Democratic Commissioners of the National Economic Commission, issued on March 1, 1989, dealt primarily with the opportunities presented by the existence of large and growing surpluses in the Social Security trust funds. We stated that 1f the administration and Congress could bring about a balanced operating budget, the Social Security surplus would allow us to retire privately held government debt. This would automatically translate into an increase in national savings -- perhaps doubling the current savings rate -- which offered a means of insuring c strong productive U.S. economy capable of supporting retirees in the next century. We recommended this. At the same time, Commissioners Strauss, Gray, Iacocca, Kirkland, Rohatyn and myself were explicit in stating that unless this were done, there would be no defensible reason for continuing the payroll tax at present levels. Our report ended thus: Let no one suppose that a Democratic Congress will much longer allow a payroll tax to be used to service a $2 to $3 trillion dollar debt owned in vastly disproportionate amounts by wealthy individuals and institutions. It already requires nearly one-half the revenues of the income tax to pay the interest. This is surely the largest transfer of wealth from labor to capital in the history of our "political arithmetic." But at least this is a graduated tax. By 1992 the trust fund reserves will have reached 100 percent of annual cutlays; a considerable reserve. By 1994 the proportion reached 150 percent. If, in the next five years, no arrangements are made to save the future incomes to the funds, Congress -- you may depend on it -- will return to a "pay-as-you-go" financing. That is not a threat. It is a political reality and indeed, an ethical imperative. The nation struggled for a generation to ratify the XVIth Amendment to the Constitution. We are not about to see it effectively repealed by a reform in financing of Social Security. The better part of a year has gone by. Early on there were various suggestions from the administration that our warning had been heard, and that some general agreement would be reached. Then silence. silence can denote but one thing. The administration is content to see the budget deficit gradually eliminated by the growing Social Security tax revenue. As we pointed out in our NEC report, the operating budget deficit is not declining. It is growing. The deficit for FY 1989 was $204 billion without the Social Security surplus. The Congressional Budget Office baseline projections show the deficit in the operating budget growing to $268 billion in the year 2000. In that same year the Social Security surplus will be $235 billion. A $268 billion deficit financed almost exclusively by the Social Security payroll tax. This is totally unacceptable. The United States almost certainly now has the most regressive tax structure of any Western nation. The 1980s have witnessed a decline in the progressivity of federal taxes as a whole -- income, payroll, and excise taxes combined -- despite improvements made in the Tax Reform Act of 1986. As CBO Director Robert D. Reischauer recently noted: federal taxes in 1990 will be less progressive than they ware in either 1977 or 1980 This is 50 because the Social Security payroll tax -- which is decidedly regressive -- has come to make up an increasingly large share of total federal tax levies. social Security tax revenue as a percent of total federal revenue rose by 23 percent from 1980 to 1988, while personal and corporate income tax revenue as a percent of total federal revenue declined by 6 percent and 23 percent, respectively. And the Social Security Administration reports that of those taxpayers who will pay any Social Security tax in 1990, about 74 percent will pay more in FICA taxes (including the employer's share) than in income taxes. The 1983 decision to move the Social Security trust funds to a partially funded basis was a responsible one. There are good grounds for actually saving for future retirement -- that is, using Social Security surpluses to increase national savings and investment and hence economic growth. As Michael Kinsley recently put it: There is no way society as a whole can save money for its future retirement. The resources retirees consume in the year 2025 will have to be produced in the year 2025 or thereabouts. All we can do is take steps now to increase our future productive capacity. If the Social Security surplus were increasing productive investment -- even indirectly, by reducing the government's demand for credit -- it would be achieving that purpose. "But," he adds, "it clearly isn't. Instead, it is enabling the government to avoid fiscal reality." Exactly 50. And we can no longer tolerate the use of Social Security surpluses to finance, say, B-2 bombers or A capital gains tax cut. The time has come to return Social Security to pay-as- you-go financing. Social Security was financed on a pay-as-you-go basis for decades prior to 1983. Under this financing method, we set the Social Security tax rate at the level needed to produce the revenues for current benefits. This approach will eliminate the current regressive financing of the budget deficit, while keeping Social Security on a sound financial basis. It will also address the concerns of those who fear that large Social Security surpluses would inevitably be spent on benefit liberalizations. Robert J. Myers, who helped create our Social Security system in 1934 and who for 23 years was its chief actuary, has urged a return. to pay-as-you-go financing. In testimony of May 1988 before the Senate Finance Subcommittee on Social Security, which I chair, Myers stated: "I believe that OASDI should be financed on close to a current cost basis. Income should, on the whole, slightly exceed outgo each year, in order to build up a fund which is about equal to one year's outgo -- and certainly no more. This should be accomplished by changing the future tax-rate schedule so as to more nearly match the trend of outgo." We have tailored our proposal to Mr. Myers' specifications. The proposal calls for repealing the tax rate increase scheduled for January 1 and a further rate reduction on January 1, 1991. By keeping the current rate of 6.02 percent for employees and employers each through 1990 (rather than increasing the rate to 6.2 percent, as called for under present law), we will still build the reserve to roughly 95 percent of the following year's outgo. On January 1, 1991, we would cut the Social Security tax rate to 5.1 percent, the rate recommended by Mr. Myers. The proposal would result in a $7 billion saving for Social Security taxpayers in 1990 and a $55 billion saving in 1991. For later years there would of course be scheduled tax rate increases to meet rising costs. The rate would peak at 7.7 percent in 2049 and thereafter. This sounds high, but we would have to go this high around the same time under the current arrangements anyway, after the reserve was drawn down. And it must be remembered that with even modest rates of economic growth between now and then, the after tax living standard of workers in 2049 would still be greater than that we have today. SENT BY:AARP COMMUNICATIONS ; 1-17-90 1:37PM ; 202-> 2024566218; # 1 Legislative Council MEETING. 29TH TALKING POINTS SENATOR MOYNIHAN'S PROPOSAL TO REDUCE PAYROLL TAXES BACKGROUND The 1983 Social Security Amendments called for increasing Social Security payroll tax (FICA) rates to assure the fiscal stability of the Old-Age Survivors and Disability Insurance Trust Funds for 75 years. The tax rates were raised in 1984, 1985, 1986 and 1990. The 1990 increase is the last scheduled raise in the rates. In a departure from past practice, these FICA tax rates were set at a level sufficient to prefund a portion of the retirement benefits of the "baby boom" generation. Senator Moynihan, one of the architects of the 1983 compromise, has now proposed rolling back the 1990 increase in the payroll tax (.14%) and then in 1991, "floating the tax rate--setting it a level to cover current benefits and a small contingency reserve. Essentially, current workers (dominated by the baby boom) would only pay sufficient taxes to cover current retirees and future generations would pay higher payroll taxes to cover retirement benefits for the baby boom. "The debate over this and similar proposals is not essentially about the well being of today's retirees. Rather, it is a debate how the Social Security promise will be honored in the future. The economic choices we make in the next few years may very well determine whether or not we will be able to keep these promises for the baby boom and beyond." This proposal raises a number of significant issues and concerns: 1. The Trust Funds do not even have a contingency reserve of one year at this time. The one year level is considered a minimum. AARP believes that up to two years reserves are necessary. The contingency reserve is need to ensure that the Social Security System can get through periods of economic slowdown or recession without crisis. SENT BY:AARP COMMUNICATIONS ; 1-17-90 1:38PM ; 202-> 2024566218;# 2 2. Senator Moynihan's major reason for proposing a rollback in the tax rates is that the Social Security trust fund buildup is being used to mask the true extent of the Federal deficit and to finance the deficit in the operating budget of the Federal government. These are legitimate concerns but the Moynihan issue. proposal goes well beyond simply dealing with this 3. AARP believe that gradually removing the Trust Funds from the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings (GRH) deficit calculation would action. expose the true dimensions of the deficit and spur positive 4. The reserve was designed to ensure benefits to future generations. It was seen as source of new national savings which would make the economy stronger and more productive in the future. 5. The reserve was also seen as a fairer way to ensure benefits to the baby boom. It is reasonable to ask the large baby boom generation to provide for a portion of its own retirement benefits since future working generations will be of much smaller numbers. 6. However, the reserve can only serve these beneficial functions if the rest of the Federal budget is in relative balance. Senator Moynihan's proposal is based on the premise that we cannot get our budget house in order and therefore, we should not make future promises based on the buildup of the reserve. Many believe that this determination is premature and that we should not give up on the reserve yet. 7. Floating the tax rate would give an immediate tax cut to workers and their employers. But, it may undermine further confidence in Social Security. Eliminating the buildup of the reserve in favor of raises taxes in the future to pay benefits could raise anxiety and lower confidence. Some fear that benefits to the baby boom would end up being reduced because there would be little willingness in the future to raise the payroll tax to the levels necessary to sustain the current benefit promise. 8. Giving a tax cut now could be seen as little more than a continuation of the trend of the last ten years of immediate gratification with the bills to be paid later. 9. However, this tax cut is not "free". The money ($50 billion or more in the first year of the floating tax rate) would have to be made up in other taxes or by increasing government indebtedness. 10. This proposal should be taken seriously and its effects carefully scrutinized. TALKING POINTS RE: MOYNIHAN'S SOCIAL SECURITY PLOY (1) In an ideal world, we would all love to be able to cut Social Security taxes without any cost. (2) Unfortunately, if we do cut Social Security receipts, we will short-change the very people we want to help: today's workers. We would undo the bipartisan Social Security rescue that was enacted in 1983. (3) In the long term, as a practical matter, the Moynihan plan would have to mean a major cut in Social Security benefits. (If reserves are not built up, they will not be there when baby-boomers retire -- and the tax burden on future workers would be prohibitive.) (4) To make sure the reserves are there, the Administration is proposing a new "Social Security Integrity and Debt Reduction Fund. " (Legislation available in late January.) (5) In the near term -- as Moynihan himself acknowledges -- his plan would cost $55 billion in FY '91 alone. (That's the coming budget year.) That $55 billion revenue loss would have to mean one of three things: (a) abandon the G-R-H targets and abandon any serious interest in deficit reduction; or (b) cut benefits; or (c) raise taxes. (Whose? Where does one find $55 billion without hitting the average taxpayer?) (6) Moynihan, in fact, knows much of this. His plan is not serious. It is a political ploy. TIMES 07-19-88 Don't Touch Those Social Security Funds To the Editor: 30/104/309 Morgan group, "the trust funds could A Princeton economist recently absorb all outstanding Federat-debt wrote that the secret is out concern- by the year 2005." We were "well Ing the surpluses in the Social Se- aware that we had put in place's feve- curity trust funds. Indeed it is, and so nue stream that could quadruple the I fear are assorted entrepreneurs national savings rate, again to cite with schemes for getting their hands the Morgan study. on some portion thereof! All that need be done now To lot, On your Op-Ed page of July 7, my but even so, all is to get our operat- good friend Walt Rostow of the Uni- ing budget in balance. Thereafter, the versity of Texas proposes that we use trust funds will absorb the privately the money to set up a public invest- held debt, which automatically trans- ment bank, which among other lates into an increase in national sav- things, "would help put the stricken ings. But the trust funds themselves banking systems of important parts must remain intact and untouchable of the nation back on their feet." save to pay benefits. This becomes an Hmm. issue of integrity and was integral to This morning, you report ("Study the Blair House accords. Suggests a Partly Private Social Se- It would be useful to hear from our curity," Business Day) that a group Presidential candidates on this sub- at J.P. Morgan & Company would ject. DANIEL PATRICK MOYNIHAN have us refund the surplus to Individ- U.S. Senator from New York uals so that they can invest in stocks Washington, July 11, 1988 and bonds. Again, hmm. A common theme of these and other proposals is that the political process cannot be trusted with so much money. The Morgan study be- gins: "The burgeoning surplus of the U.S. Social Security system has come to the fore this year as the latest temptation to procrastinate on deci- sive measures to cut the Federal budget deficit." Possibly. May one ask, however, that some considera- tion be given the fact that it was the political process that created this revenue stream. This began with a conversation be- tween me and Senator Bob Dole on the Senate floor on Jan. 3, 1983, fol- lowed by 11 days of intensive negotia- tions with a White House team led by James A. Baker 3d, then chief of staff. Agreement was reached at Blair House on Saturday night, Jan. 15. In essence, we agreed to move from a pay-as-you-go system to a partly funded one. (The Canadians had shown the way.) We could count. We knew perfectly well that, to quote the WASH.POST: 10-19-89 Split-Level Government: Sen. Moynihan Replies A Post editorial ["Split-Level Govern- "would instantly raise the lagging me- ment," Oct. 18] states that it "sets a bad tional savings rate, reduce depen- precedent" to move the Social Security dence on foreign loans and allow the trust funds off-budget. May I point out Federal Reserve Board to lower in- that they are already off-budget? S. 219 terest rates-all steps toward eco- simply excludes them from the calcula- nomic health." tion of whatever you want to call the Not bad for 1 day's work. As the number that the Gramm-Rudman-Hol- chairman of the subcommittee on So- lings legislation requires the budget cial Security, I introduced the bill in committees to comply with. the last Congress and again on the The object of the bill is to bring the first legislative day of this Congress. I current operating budget of the feder- didn't think it was "showy." I thought al government into balance, whereup- nobody even noticed. on the trust funds commence actually DANIEL P. MOYNIHAN to be "saved." This takes the form of U.S. Senstor (D-N.Y.) retiring privately held public debt. Chairman, Subcommittee OR Social Security The result, as The Post writes, Washington WASH. POST 07-06-88 104 309 No Money Worries? In his column on the Social Security surplus [op-ed, June 16], Hobart Row- en cited Alan Greenspan to the effect that "unless we invest our Social Se- curity accounts in private instru- ments, the surplus by itself doesn't contribute to net savings [in the econ- omy]." Strictly construed, this state- ment is false. However, I believe one can see what the chairman of the Federal Reserve intended. If the So- cial Security surpluses lead to re- duced borrowing by government, that in turn automatically leads to an in- crease in national savings. However, if the surpluses are "spent" by the government-which is to say used to disguise a true deficit in current ac- count-then there is indeed no in- crease in savings. The great object of fiscal policy in the next decade must be to increase savings by rolling back debt. The revenue stream-Social Security tax- es-that makes this possible is in place. The funds are increasing at $109,440,000 per day. The coming surpluses are, to cite the First Boston Corp., mammoth. The temptation will be to act as if we suddenly came into a lot of new money and had no more worries. This has to be resisted and to be resisted has to be under- stood. The half-dozen of us who put the current arrangements in place in 12 days of negotiation in January 1983 knew we were creating the revenue stream that is now appearing. We knew we were moving from a pay-as- you-go social insurance system to a partially funded system. (The Canadi- ans did this in the 1960s.) We knew the money would be needed as a form of forced national savings. To miss this opportunity-especially in the af- termath of the 1980s-would truly put the nation at risk. DANIEL P. MOYNIHAN U.S. Senator (D-N.Y.) Washington WASH.POST: 10-19-89 Split-Level Government: Sen. Moynihan Replies A Post editorial ["Split-Level Govern- "would instantly raise the lagging no- ment," Oct. 18] states that it "sets a bad tional savings rate, reduce depen- precedent" to move the Social Security dence on foreign loans and allow the trust funds off-budget. May I point out Federal Reserve Board to lower in- that they are already off-budget? S. 219 terest rates-all steps toward eco- simply excludes them from the calcula- nomic health." tion of whatever you want to call the Not bad for a day's work. As the number that the Gramm-Rudman-Hot- chairman of the subcommittee on So- lings legislation requires the budget cial Security, I introduced the bill in committees to comply with. the last Congress and again on the The object of the bill is to bring the first legislative day of this Congress. I current operating budget of the feder- didn't think it was "showy." I thought al government into balance, whereup- nobody even noticed. on the trust funds commence actually DANIEL P. MOYNIHAN to be "saved." This takes the form of U.S. Senstor (D-N.Y.) retiring privately held public debt. Chairman, Subcommittee on Social Security The result, as The Post writes, Washington PAGE 2 2ND STORY of Level 1 printed in FULL format. Copyright (c) 1989 The Washington Post March 7, 1989, Tuesday, Final Edition SECTION: EDITORIAL; PAGE A25 LENGTH: 801 words HEADLINE: Why We Called for a Surplus BYLINE: Daniel Patrick Moynihan BODY: There was one thing the National Economic Commission could do, and we did do it. We introduced into the deficit "debate" the proposition that if the United States is to maintain its standing in the world, it must promptly move to a sustained budgetary surplus. Further, we identified and quantified that surplus. It should consist of and amount to the Social Security surplus. This is to say the roughly $ 3 trillion in cash reserve that will accumulate in the Old Age Survivors and Disability Insurance Trust Funds between now and the year 2018. The reserve is currently rising at $ 1 billion a week. Saving the surplus would roughly double net national savings, now a desperately low 2 percent of GNP. We surprised ourselves. Or at least I was surprised. Nominally we ended up a divided commission. That became ingvitable at about 9:15 p.m. EST last Nov. 8, when exit polls showed that Mr. Bush would be elected, having pledged no new taxes. Our Republican appointees were thereupon bound not just to support the pledge but to affirm that a "flexible freeze" would get the budget into balance. Our side could not do that, and 50 there is a majority and minority report. However, the commission had two goals. First was the short-term issue of the deficit. Second, the long-term issue of economic growth. This latter issue took us directly to the question of the Social Security surplus. It was by no means inevitable that we would agree on this issue. But we did. (For what it is worth, the reports were prepared separately. The NEC staff had no idea what the Republicans would propose until their text arrived 15 minutes before the Public Printer's deadline on the afternoon of Feb. 27.) I dare to suggest that we did because of a set of exceedingly chastening facts. The first set has to do with the enormity of the fiscal excess of the 1980s. In the two Reagan terms, the United States incurred almost as much debt as was required to wage the Second World War. After each of our wars, from the Revolution on, we have had to go into sustained periods of surplus to pay off the debt. If you like, we now have the moral equivalent of a war debt. The second set of facts concerned the impact of current borrowing on future economic growth. We are in the process of beggaring the next generation and those that follow. Our witnesses pounded away at this. Volcker, Rivlin, Greenspan, Bergsten, Brock. Start up savings again or be known as a political generation that quite literally sold its country. Mead Data Central PAGE 3 (c) 1989 The Washington Post, March 7, 1989 Enter the Social Security surplus. In 1983 another commission -- the national Commission on Social Security Reform -- proposed a set of sweeping changes to the Social Security system. We had, for a near half-century, been operating on a pay-as-you-go basis. We now moved to a "partially funded" system whereby more 15 taken in than paid out, to establish a reserve when the "baby boom" retires (something the Canadians did in the 1960s.) For what it may be worth, some of us at least on the earlier commission had in mind that we were creating a revenue stream that would become available in the 1990s when the borrowing would have to stop. At this point, most readers ask, what are you talking about? Fair enough. It has been at least three political generations since we have routinely run a surplus. Further, the process whereby extra cash flowing into the Treasury leads to the retirement of privately held public debt and a corresponding increase in private savings and investment, while simple, doesn't sound simple. We can't help that. AS the saying goes, If we can send a man to the moon, we can take the trouble to figure out what happens when Treasury bonds are retired. Now then. The deficit today. Isn't that a slight obstacle on the way to surplus? Yes and no. Yes, 1f you don't intend to do anything. But if you think that something like the fate of the nation is involved, it begins to look easy enough. Doable, certainly. There would be no significant social dislocation involved in, let us say, letting taxes return gasoline prices to their 1980 levels. ($ 1 billion for 1 cent.) In the course of our deliberations, Commissioner Dean Kleckner of the Farm Bureau made a brilliant case for slashing farm programs which Mr. Reagan's last budget termed "far too costly" ($ 600,000 per farmer over the period 1986-89). Easy $ 20 billion there. So it goes. A closing point. Budget balancing has been presented in the main as an exercise in virtue, which may account for the limited enthusiasm it has so far evoked. But if eliminating the deficit leads directly to a surplus? Interest rates go down. Stocks go up. Investment booms. Does not that prospect please? Even, possibly, entice? The writer, a Democratic senator from New York, served on the National Economic Commission. TYPE: OPINION EDITORIAL SUBJECT: SOCIAL SECURITY; ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ORGANIZATION: NATIONAL ECONOMIC COMMISSION NAMED-PERSONS: DANIEL PATRICK MOYNIHAN Trillions, Limos in the Night tunity as peril, he went on: floor. If he was as optimistic as his ar- And President Reagan was not going By Daniel Patrick Moynihan "Social Security is a case in point. ticle suggested, shouldn't we make to do anything to prevent it. With 116 million workers supporting one last try? Two days later, he and I And so we would. Until then, Social WASHINGTON it and 36 million beneficiaries relying and Representative Barber B. Cona- Security had been on a pay-as-you-go It all started his appears to be the on it, Social Security overwhelms ble Jr. were secreted out to White basis, with a little cushion 10 take T season for disclosing every other domestic priority. House chief of staff James A. Baker care of economic downturns. We with a Dole Washington secrets, Through a combination of relatively 3d's house in northwest Washington. could have fluffed up that cushion and and I don't see why modest steps, including some accel- Negotiations began. let it go at that. We decided instead on article. only Republicans eration of already scheduled taxes In time, we shifted our talks to a radical change in policy. Hence- should be able to play. and some reduction in the rate of fu- Blair House (which was empty, owing forth, we would collect and save for I've got a pretty good one. Secret ture benefit Increases, the system to the chandeller incident), and on the. the far future, and not just the next messages concealed on the Op-Ed can be saved. When It is, much of the night of Saturday, Jan. 15, we reached year. An immense reserve would be- page of The New York Times. Whis- credit, rightfully, will belong to this agreement on arrangements to save gin to accumulate before beginning to 1994. As public debt declines, national pered conversations on the Senate President and his party." the system, which were promptly en- run down about 2030. In the process, savings Increase. floor. White House limos hurtling Oh? Not 24 hours earlier the budget dorsed by the commission and the we would pay off the national debt. By 2010 the Social Security reserve through the wintry night to a house in director, David A. Stockman, had President. We have now had four full calendar is projected to be nearly $4.5 trillion. northwest Washington. A bedroom - foretold that the "most devastating Most of this story is now familiar. years of the new revenue base. The ($4,460,600,000,000)) If we wanted to yup - on the second floor of the bankruptcy in history," that of the So- Here is what is not generally under- trustees have just reported, and I go all the way, we could probably President's guest house, where nights cial Security Trust Funds, was only stood. Almost everyone Involved have Just had the first oversight hear- have zero national debt by that time. earlier a visiting potentate would months away. Which wasn't so, but a knew - by then - that the Adminis- Ing. Here are the numbers. The Social For the first time, incidentally, since have been skewered by a plunging lot of people believed hirn. What the tration had got the nation's finances Security Trust Funds are Increasing 1836 - when we were down to $38,000. chandelier had he not been mysteri- columnist Sylvia Porter called "a in terrible shape. Mr. Stockman, who at the rate of $109,440,000 per day and We could of course blow the oppor- ously otherwise engaged at the scare campaign of vicious propor- joined our deliberations, has written rising. tunity. We could start to "spend" the Watergate. tions" had been going on. The new about this in great detail. There The current reserve is approaching Social Security surplus rather than Huddled conspirators. Big bucks. breed of conservatives seemed to de- would be $200 billion budget deficits $100 billion. Between now and the using it to retire debt, and so get rid of Like, maybe, trillions? test the program even more than the "as far as the eye could see." The na- year 2000 it will grow to $1.4 trillion. the deficit. (Which for practical pur- Trouble is it was really on the up old breed. And the funds were going tional debt would triple in eight years. (As of 1987, the entire assets of pri- poses now consists almost entirely of and up. And has a happy ending. So I down, the result of an Interval vate pension funds were about $1.49 debt service.) But surely we should don't suppose it would sell, and I In the 1970's when prices l'an ahead of billion.) This revenue stream must be "save" it, and thus put aside the fis- might as well come out with it here wages so that cost-of-living adjust- deposited with the Treasury. If at the cal mess of the 80's. and now. ments were not being offset A true end of the day the Treasury has more Our real economic problem is that in brief, in 12 days in January 1983, by increased payments into the money on hand than it needs, it sim- we don't save enough. Of 24 members a half dozen people in Washington put funds. in place a revenue stream that is just A year or so earlier, the Senate ma- inside ply retires privately held of the Organization for Economic debt. Cooperation and Development, we beginning to flow and that, If we don't jority leader, Howard H. Baker Jr., This can sound arcane but isn't. rank 20th, followed by Iceland, and a blow it, will put the Federal budget had put together a bipartisan Na- story Every week some millions of Treas- few such. Yet, as one witness at our back in the black, pay off the pri- tional Commission on Social Security ury bonds and bills "mature" and are oversight hearings put it, by the next vately held Government debt, jump Reform. Mr. Dole and I were appoint- revealed by cashed in. At present, the Treasury decade we could be "awash to capt start the savings rate and guarantee ed. Alan Greenspan was made chair- "rolls over" the debt, Issuing new tal." This is the one sure way - sav- the Social Security Trust Funds for a man. Months went by with no appar- the Senator bonds or bills to gel the cash to pay ing and investment - to make cer- half century and more. ent movement from either side. Then, off the old ones. But If it isn't short of tain the Social Security funds are still It all began on a Monday morning, suddenly, this signal from Mr. Dole. Who Knows! cash It needn't do this. The national ample when the baby boom retirees. Jan. 3. Bob Dole of Kansas had an Op- He and Mr. Greenspan had come to debt begins to shrink. One further point. In the near term, Ed article that Insisted that things understand that the system's prob- Our present deficit "path" takes us, the proportion of retired persons In would soon be looking up for the Ad- lems really were temporary and that in theory at least, to a zero deficit by the population will be quite stable: ministration there was a near-de- in the long term It could be made he- 1993. If that happens, the revenue the depression bables. Today, there pression on and that Congressional roically solvent. stream from Social Security will be are 21 persons retired for every 100 of Republicans were behind him. Noth- On the day I was sworn in for a sec- sufficient to begin retiring debt by working age. This ratio stays flat ing special, save for one paragraph. ond term, I went over 10 Mr. Dole, through 2010. Claims on the funds will Having said that the issues confront- who happened to be on the Senate be steady. Ing them presented as much oppor- There you have it. Hard to believe? Yes. But within our grasp. Daniel Patrick Moynihan, Democrat All done in 12 days in January. of New York, is chairman of the Sen- ate Finance Committee's subcommi- lee on Social Security and Family Policy. January 12, 1990 SELECTED PAST REMARKS BY SEN. MOYNIHAN ON SOCIAL SECURITY Moynihan on Social Security and the the Greenspan Commission: 0 "'If it ain't broke, don't fix it,' is a commonsensical caution for people not content to leave well enough alone. I propose a corollary, one particularly suited to any discussion of the Social Security system; 'If it's fixed don't break it! [emphasis added]' "If we are to have another debate about changing the Social Security system, let us not lose sight of these facts: The program is secure; it is depended on; it is effective. The burden of proof falls upon those wishing to change things.' O "I submit to you that after 1985, social security will not contribute one cent to the Federal deficit -- in fact, it will be part of the solution." [The Social Security system is] "the most successful policy ever devised in our land. [The revenue stream resulting from the the Greenspan Commission's reforms] "will put the Federal budget back in the black, pay off the privately held government debt, jump start the savings rate and guarantee the Social Security Trust Funds for a half century and more [emphasis added]. 1 Congressional Record, 7-31-84, E3378 2 Congressional Record, 7-31-84, E3378 3 Congressional Record, 3-20-84, S2926. 4 "Moynihan Praises Social Security System," by Robin Greene, UPI, 12/31/88. 5 "Conspirators, Trillions, Limos in the Night," by Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan, New York Times, 5/23/88. (more) 2 Background On Moynihan And The Greenspan Commission As a member of the National Commission On Social Security Reform (The Greenspan Commission), which issued its report in January, 1983, Moynihan supported increases in the payroll tax that funds the retirement portion of the program -- increases to be phased-in over a seven year period. One of those increases, from 6.06 percent to 6.2 percent, just took place on January 1st. Moynihan seeks repeal of that increase, and a further cut in the rate to 5.1 percent by Jan. 1, 1991. In other words, Moynihan now wants to do away with the increases he favored in 1983. In fact, Moynihan wanted the tax increases to be even higher. In a supplementary statement to the Greenspan Commission's Report, signed by Moynihan and four other members', a proposal to further increase taxes read as follows: "For purposes of present legislation we would support putting in the law now an increase in the contribution rate beginning in 2010 of %.046 of payroll " After the Greenspan Commission submitted its report, Moynihan tried his additional tax increase in the Senate Finance Committee, which voted 15-2 against Moynihan's proposal. The Greenspan Commission unanimously recommended, in the words of the report, "that the Congress, in its deliberations on financing proposals, should not alter the fundamental structure of the Social Security program or undermine its 6 "Moynihan's Plan Makes Bush the Tax Ogre," by Donald Lambro, Washington Times, 1/11/90. 7 The four other members were Lane Kirkland, Claude Pepper, Robert M. Ball, and Martha Keys. There were 15 members total on the Commission. Report of the National Commission on Social Security Reform, (Washington, 1983). "Social Security Rescue Plan Rushes to Final Hill Accord," by Pamela Fessler and Elizabeth Wehr, Congressional Quarterly, 3/12/83. (more) 3 fundamental principles. The National Commission considered, but rejected, proposals to make the Social Security program a voluntary one, or to transform it into a program under which benefits are a product exclusively of the contributions paid, or to convert it into a fully-funded program, or to change it to a program under which benefits are conditioned on the showing of financial need. "[emphasis added] Both houses of Congress, in a remarkable show of unity, swiftly enacted the Greenspan Commission's recommendations, including the seven year phased-in payroll tax increase. A typical lead was from Congressional Quarterly: "Setting partisanship aside, the full House and the Senate Finance Committee have given a Social Security rescue plan a quick push toward final passage. """ The vote in the House for the Greenspan reforms was 282-148, on March 9, 1983. 12 The Senate voted 58-14, on March 25th, 1983, with Moynihan voting Yea.13 ATTACHMENTS 10 Report of the National Commission on Social Security Reform (Washington, 1983) 11 "Social Security Rescue Plan Rushes to Final Hill Accord," by Pamela Fessler and Elizabeth Wehr, Congressional Quarterly, 3/12/83. 12 "Social Security Rescue Plan Rushes to Final Hill Accord," by Pamela Fessler and Elizabeth Wehr, Congressional Quarterly, 3/12/83. 13 1983 CQ Almanac; CQ Senate Vote 54 E 3378 CONGRESSIONAL RECORD Extensions of Remarks July 31, 1984 1 strategy for dealing with the Soviet Union. uitable balance in arms sales between the rity System in the future to meet the At very least, this strategy would require a U.S. and the allies. At present, the U.S. needs of today's young people. For 50 coordinated response by NATO members to enjoys a seven-to-one advantage in such major Soviet challenges around the world. sales within NATO. The allies recognize years now, the American people have Such a strategy was possible during the first NATO's need for advanced weaponry. but honored the social contract in which twenty years of the alliance's life, but de- they are afraid that a U.S. push for more of working people provide the financial tente in the last decade brought benefits to it will give American arms manufacturers an security for older Americans and Europe that were not shared by America. even larger share of NATO's markets. The income security for those disabled. Ir- Thus, most Europeans today believe that a cost of new weapons is high, and many Eu- responsible statements from President working relationship can be maintained ropeans doubt that they can afford them. Reagan or others are geared to under- with the Soviet Union, while most Ameri- NATO's conventional strategy is also un- cans still see the Soviet Union as an aggres- mine the Social Security Program and settled. Greater conventional strength sive power whose designs on Europe and based on advanced weaponry would decrease generational contract. The real risk to other regions must be resisted. This differ- NATO's reliance on nuclear weapons, but the Social Security Program comes ence in perception is dividing the alliance, also would enable NATO to strike deep into from the catastrophic events in our and ultimately may threaten its viability. Warsaw Pact territory. The possibility that economy which has been subjected to A second issue for NATO is how to ease new weaponry might cause NATO to shift the roller coaster ride of Reagan's economic tensions that are sapping the alli- to an offensive strategy is extremely trou- "voodoo economics!" There is no ance's strength. The U.S. is enjoying an eco- bling to many in Europe, particularly in nomic recovery that is faster than Europe's. sound reason to suggest that this Germany. European leaders argue that the U.S. recov- social contract will not be honored for These are the major issues that will domi- ery is taking place at Europe's expense, and nate NATO's deliberations during the future generations as well as current that high U.S. interest rates soak up money coming year. One of the important ways retirees. The universal nature of the that could be invested in Europe's recovery. that the U.S. can contribute to resolving Social Security System has been and The U.S. and Europe are also engaged in them is through arms control. Goodfaith ef- will continue to be the foundation of several trade disputes that have serious im- forts and meaningful negotiations with the the System's strength, both for plications for important economic sectors on Soviet Union can help close the rift between both sides of the Atlantic. The strength of today's and tomorrow's beneficiaries. American and European perceptions, and NATO depends on the combined economic can give our friends in Europe the political [From St. Paul (MN) Sunday Pioneer Press, strength of its members, and both the U.S. support that they need to make the case for July 15, 1984] and Europe will have to make future eco- increased defense spending and stronger SOCIAL SECURITY DEPENDABLE, DON'T TAMPER nomic decisions in view of their impact on conventional forces. WITH IT Now the alliance. Other issues will surface, but If the alli- How NATO should react to the challenge "(By Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan) ance can handle these ft will continue to of events beyond the North Atlantic region "If It ain't broke, don't fix it," is a com- is a third issue. The U.S. position is that provide an effective military shield behind monsensical caution for people not content NATO should fashion a coordinated re- which the nations of the West can prosper. to leave well enough alone. I propose a cor- The allies still appreciate the importance of sponse to such events. Washington believes ollary. one particularly suited to any discus- that NATO has a duty to act when its secu- NATO. So do many Americans. All parties, sion of the Social Security system: "If it's rity is at stake, and that European members however, must be willing to accept the re- fixed, don't break It!" should be ready to replace U.S. forces that sponsibilities and sacrifices necessary to On Jan. 15, 1983. the National Commis- might be moved from Europe tn an emer- keep the alliance healthy.e sion on Social Security Reform. on which I gency. The Europeans, however, are not served, agreed to a set of recommendations keen on replacing U.S. troops, and they are SOCIAL SECURITY DEPENDABLE to put Social Security on a firm financial especially reluctant to ready their own footing. troops for combat abroad. They point out HON. BRUCE F. VENTO Our proposals became law three months that U.S. and European interests may not later. and my optimism about their effica- coincide outside Europe. that some nations OF MINNESOTA cy-expressed at the time-remains. On cannot legally use armed force outside their IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES' April 5 of this year. Donald T. Regan. treas- borders, and that Europe no longer has the ury secretary, Raymond J. Donovan. labor resources necessary to project military force Tuesday, July 31, 1984 secretary. and Margaret M. Heckler. health to distant points. Mr. VENTO. Mr. Speaker, recently and human services secretary-the trustees A final issue before NATO is how to im- an article by Senator DANIEL PATRICK of the Social Security funds-reported that prove its conventional military strength. MOYNIHAN concerning the current the benefits provided "under these pro- This is a pressing concern because there is doubt whether NATO could counter an in- status of our Social Security System grams can be paid well into the next centu- vasion by the Warsaw Pact without early, and its outlook for the future was pub- ry." During the commission's deliberations, and probably cataclysmic, use of nuclear lished in the St. Paul Sunday Pioneer Alan Greenspan, our chairman and former weapons. The Europeans know that their Press (July 15). Senator MOYNIHAN, chairman of the president's Council of Eco- own homelands would be the first areas dev- who served as a member of the Nation- nomic Advisors, imposed a simple but cru- astated in a nuclear exchange, so they and al Commission on Social Security cial rule: Members were entitled to their the U.S. have agreed on the need to upgrade Reform. observes that Congress' pas- own opinions, but not to their own facts. In conventional forces. There is disagreement, sage of the Social Security Act Amend- deference to our chairman's rule, herewith however, on the allocation of expense. The ments of 1983 insured the future sta- some facts: U.S. wants its allies to increase their defense bility of our Nation's basic social in- By next year, the revenues from Social Se- budgets 3 percent annually, just as they said curity taxes will match the costs of Social that they would do in 1978. The allies say surance program and notes that the Security benefits. Indeed, we now expect that they will do their best to increase de- Social Security Program has helped revenue surpluses to begin in 1986 and fense spending, but contend that their eco- millions of older Americans avoid build, according to Social Security's actuar- nomic troubles may keep them from reach- living in poverty. Senator MOYNIHAN'S ies, to $13.4 trillion by 2025 and $18.4 tril- ing the original goal. reasoned observations are especially lion in 2045. Unless the economy takes a How the burden of a stronger convention- timely in light of the recent remarks sudden nosedive and sharply erodes Social al defense should be shared is in fact one of NATO's knottiest problems. The U.S. by President Reagan suggesting that Security revenues within the next few spends more of its gross domestic product young people will never be able to re- years, the retirement and disability funding problems would seem to be behind us. (6.5 percent in 1982) on defense than do its ceive as much from this system as The universal social insurance system es- NATO allies ₹3.7 percent in 1982), and in they are paying into it and that fur- tablished in 1935 is central to the way we 1983 the U.S. increased its defense spending ther (although unspecified) changes plan our lives. by 7.6 percent while the allies raised theirs may be necessary. Social Security is an undeniable success. by only 2 percent. For their part, the allies President Reagan's comments are a The system has helped reduce poverty dra- point out that during the 1970s they in- disservice to the Nation and only serve matically among the nation's elderly. In creased their defense spending by 2 percent annually while U.S. military outlays fell by to exacerbate unfounded fears and 1937, three years before the first check was anxieties among young workers and distributed, two-thirds of all Americans 65 1 percent per year. They note as well that older Americans. The President's years or older had no means of support they get more value for each dollar because except help from friends and relatives or their conscripted forces cost less than Amer- statements and responses mislead private charities. Today, more than 85 per- ica's volunteer force. Burden-sharing also young people when he suggests that cent of all elderly citizens have incomes involves NATO's commitment to a more eq. there will not be a strong Social Secu- above the national proverty line. July 31, 1984 CONGRESSIONAL RECORD - Extensions of Remarks E 3379 If we are to have another debate about (which would not change the benefit struc- Mr. Speaker, this initiative to changing the Social Security system, let us ture) "would add significantly to the public not lose sight of these facts: The program is strengthen mathematics and science understanding of the trustee character of secure; it is depended on; it is effective. The Social Security as a retirement and group education in this country is long over- burden of proof falls upon those wishing to insurance plan." due. Deficiencies in math and science change things. Social Security has been a fixture in the curricula and equipment have serious President Ronald Reagan recently re- United States for nearly a half-century. Yet injured the morale of this country's marked (once again!): "There is a possibili- after all this time and success, some are not ty-well, probability-that many people, teachers and the capabilities of our reconciled to it. This is unfortunate. But it young people now paying in, will never be students. The National Science Foun- is a minority view, and it doesn't change the able to receive as much as they're paying." facts. Social Security is fixed in more ways dation [NSF] has reported that math In response, James M. Brown, a spokesman than one. Don't break it. and science teachers have had serious for the Social Security Administration, said [Senator Moynihan, of New York, is the difficulty in obtaining information 2 that Social Security "is not just a retire- ranking Democrat on the Senate Finance concerning new instructional materi- ment benefit. You are buying a package Committee's Social Security and income that also includes protection against disabil- als, thereby hampering the Nation's maintenance programs subcommittee.-The ity and death. Nobody else offers a package efforts to improve curriculum. Addi- Los Angeles Times] like that," The president sometimes seems tionally, the National Association of genuinely to misunderstand the system. Secondary School Principals has re- Few amoung us know what our financial IN MEMORY OF FORMER CON- ported that only 45 percent of all sec- condition will be in the future, and it is only GRESSMAN CHARLIE WILSON wise to eliminate fear of economic calamity ondary schools possess some sort of by making regular, and relatively small, pre- science equipment. These are disturb- mium payments throughout our working HON. WILLIAM (BILL) CLAY ing facts demonstrating serious, wide- lives. OF MISSOURI spread problems in our country's abili- At its inception in 1935, Social Security provides benefits only for retirees, but eligi- IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ty to educate our children. bility has since been broadened. In 1939 Tuesday, July 31, 1984 Fortunately, H.R. 1310 defines im- before the first benefit was paid, retirees' mediate Federal, State, and local roles dependents and survivors were accepted as Mr. CLAY. Mr. Speaker, a former for improving math and science educa- beneficiaries. And under President Dwight colleague, Charles Wilson, passed tion and teacher preparation. The bill Eisenhower in 1956, permanently and total- away Saturday, July 21, 1984. I insert provides incentives to encourage ly disabled workers began receiving Social my message to his lovely wife, Bok, as Security checks. Today, some 25 million re- future generations of teachers to enter a lasting tribute to a true friend: tired workers, almost 4 million disabled these fields, and to help improve the DEAR Box: You are not alone. All of Char- workers. and more than 7 million survivors skills of current teachers. Additional- receive Social Security benefits. lie's many friends share his loss with you. As with other types of insurance, of Carol and I count ourselves among his clos- ly, the problems of student prepara- est friends. tion and achievement are addressed by course, the lucky ones are those who do not need to collect. But it is nice to know it is At a time like this, words are not adequate authorizing educational agencies and there. to convey the pain and emptiness we feel. institutions to develop methods to im- There is no little antagonism to the com- Even constrained by our limited power of prove, strengthen, expand, and mod- pulsory nature of Social Security. However, expression, we are compelled to verbalize ernize math and science education. the system is trustworthy only if it's univer- the deep hurt we share with you-the loss of our dear and longtime friend, Charlie. Moreover, H.R. 1310 addresses the sal. If given the chance, how many people would have the time. knowledge. and, above True friends are a rarity, Charlie was our serious problems of underrepresenta- all, capital to provide securely for the true friend. When he laughed, we laughed. tion of women and minorities in these future? And what of those who would try When he cried, we cried. When he rejoiced. disciplines by requiring grant recipi- but fail? Stock go down sometimes, right? we rejoiced. When he hurt, we hurt. When ents to take concrete action to ensure The plain fact is that Social Security he died, a part of all mankind died. means that older persons in America do not Ernest Hemingway put it best when he equal educational opportunity. I depend on their children for support. This wrote: "For Whom the Bell Tolls." He said, strongly support this provision and is a blessing beyond words. Not to the chil- "No man is an island, entire of itself; every salute the committee's continued ef- dren, but to the parents who know they man is a piece of the continent. a part of forts to improve opportunities for all never will be a burden to the dearest per- the main: if a clod be washed away by the Americans. sons in their lives. sea, Europe is the less, as well as if a prom- Recently. Treasury Secretary Regan said ontory were, as well as if a manor of thy Mr. Speaker. in considering the bill the practice of paying benefits to those at friends or of thine own were: any man's before us today, however, I am con- the "upper end" of the economic scale death diminishes me, because I am involved cerned over one amendment added by should be re-examined. Well, why should in mankind: and therefore never seem to the other body to provide funding for well-off Americans receive an income sup- know for whom the bell tolls; it tolls for magnet schools which are part of an plement? Because depriving them of the thee." approved desegregation plan. My res- benefits for which they have paid under- A longtime family commitment forced Carol and I to be in Connecticut, and we will ervations about supporting this mines the insurance principle of Social Se- curity. be unable to see you for the next few days, amendment stem from its heavy bias Would it be right or prudent to tell those however, we will call you when we return so toward the larger school districts, whose homes burn down that they cannot that we can get together. while appearing to shun the smaller collect fire insurance because they have re- Sincerely, but equally needy districts. I under- sources sufficient to cover the losses? Of BILL AND CAROL CLAY. stand from the colloquy on this course not. Just so with Social Security. Once we end the universal nature of the debate, however, that the eligibility system. we inevitably weaken the universal SECTIONS 1 THROUGH 7 OF H.R. criteria set forth in the amendment do nature of its political support. 1310 not preclude those smaller desegregat- Certainly, there are administrative ing districts, and therefore I withdraw changes that can improve Social Security SPEECH OF my reservations. Further I would hope Administration operations. Our commission recommended, and Congress approved, ap- HON. SILVIO O. CONTE that, this being the case, the Secretary pointment by the president of two members will give close consideration to the OF MASSACHUSETTS of the public to the Social Security Board of needs of those smaller districts when IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES Trustees. We can enhance public confidence considering awards under this pro- in the system by increasing public involve- Wednesday, July 25, 1984 gram.o ment in its oversight. But these appoint- ments have not been made. Mr. CONTE. Mr. Speaker, I am glad It has been suggested that the agency be to see that H.R. 1310, the math and made an independent body (it is now within science education bill. has returned to the Department of Health and Human Serv- this floor for our consideration. And I ices). I agree with Robert Ball, the agency's am pleased to rise in support of this former commissioner, who said this step important measure. S 2926 CONGRESSIONAL RECORD - SENATE March 20, 1984 others. I am proud to have the oppor- At a time when it has become fashion- er Congress' brave decision to go beyond the tunity today to commend Mr. Michael able to advocate cuts to run-away enti- commission's recommendations and phase Bongiovanni. tlement programs in order to reduce in a delay in the retirement age makes it the deficit, we must recognize precise- less likely that drastic changes will then be ly how, or if, entitlement programs are needed. In the meantime, building up enor- SOCIAL SECURITY mous reserves in the trust funds-which contributing to the deficit. I submit to would offset deficits in other parts of the Mr. MOYNIHAN. Mr. President, 1 you that after 1985, social security will budget-would only discourage needed year ago, the Senate began its consid- not contribute 1 cent to the Federal budget discipline. eration of H.R. 1900, the Social Secu- deficit-in fact, it will be part of the There is no way to put a system as big and rity Act Amendments of 1983. At this solution. important as Social Security on automatic benchmark, it is instructive to reflect I hope that my colleagues will take pilot for all time. But there is no sense in on the reform legislation enacted last the time to review these articles. sounding a general alarm while sailing in April. There is no way to guarantee that untroubled waters. I call my colleagues' attention to the social security will never need addi- recent report by the Committee for tional financing changes. But as the [From the Washington Post, Feb. 10. 1984] Post editorial concludes, "there is no SOCIAL SECURITY Is IN GOOD SHAPE Economic Development, entitled "Social Security: From Crisis to sense in sounding a general alarm (By Robert M. Ball and Robert J. Myers) Crisis?" CED, a private nonprofit, non- while sailing in untroubled waters." Hobart Rowen ["Social Security: It's Not 3 partisan organization of business ex- Mr. President, I request unanimous So Secure." op-ed, Feb. 16] asserts that the ecutives, has suggested that the 1983 consent that the following articles Social Security system is once again likely amendments to the Social Security from the Washington Post, "Social Se- to run into financial difficulties despite the Act "provide very little margin of curity False Alarm" and "Social Secu- reform legislation enacted last April. A large part of his conclusion is drawn from the safety." It contends that, should eco- rity is in Good Shape" appear in the recent report by the Committee for Eco- nomic and demographic trends be less RECORD. nomic Development entitled "Social Secu- favorable than assumed in the 1983 The articles follow: rity: From Crisis to Crisis?" amendments, the system could face [From The Washington Post, Feb. 25, 1984] We disagree strongly with Rowen's con- another financial crisis in this decade. SOCIAL SECURITY FALSE ALARM clusions. We refer only to the Social Secu- The economic assumptions on which Less than a year ago Congress enacted a rity program (Old-Age, Survivors and Dis- Congress relied for these amendments, bipartisan reform program to put the Social ability Insurance-OASDI) and not to the Security retirement system on sound foot- Hospital Insurance portion of the Medicare it is claimed, "fail to cover a realistic range of possibilities" with respect to ing for the foreseeable future. Now comes a program. The National Commission on actual economic performance. report from the Committee on Economic Social Security Reform recognized, and we Development, a national business policy agree, that under present law Hospital In- This simply is not the case. The Na- group, warning that Social Security may be surance has a serious financing problem tional Commission on Social Security in trouble before the end-of the decade. some five or more years from now. It was Reform, on which I served, based its Before you pick up your pen to dash off a not the assignment of the national commis- recommendations on economic as- worried letter to the president or Congress, sion to deal with this problem. but rather sumptions generally considered to be you should know that the CED's report is with the more immediate problem of the not based on any new analysis or insight. Social Security programs. quite cautious. The intermediate as- The projections it cites are taken from last Rowen claims that eventually Social Secu- sumptions were thought by some to be year's report of the Social Security Trust- rity and other entitlement programs will re- less favorable than our best estimates ees. and are essentially the same as those quire further changes for two reasons: first, would have suggested, but we were used by Congress and the bipartisan Social "to keep them financially healthy and, wary of the perils of over optimism. Security commission in framing the reforms second, to help cut the dangerous federal I submit for your attention, then, an put into law last March. True. things have deficits." We believe that it is highly prob- editorial which appeared in the Wash- changed somewhat since that time-but not able that the Social Security system will be ington Post on February 25, entitled in the way that the CED's report would sug- financially healthy over at least the next "Social Security False Alarm," and a gest. They've gotten better. two decades. For the period 20 to 75 years letter to the editor of the Washington The important thing to remember about after that for which estimates are tradition- last year's reforms is that, for once, they ally made, we believe the estimates underly- Post written by Robert M. Ball and were not based on a rosy view of the future. ing the financing of the program are reason- Robert J. Myers. These two pieces give The reform package was designed to see the able and even somewhat on the conservative an accurate first year report card on Social Security trust funds through this side. the Social Security Amendments of decade under a very pessimistic economic As to Rowen's second point, the Social Se- 1983, one that ought to be considered forecast-unemployment remaining above curity program, which will be part of the by all. 10 percent until 1985 and not dipping below unified budget until 1992, will not be a cause Mr. Ball, the distinguished former 8 percent until almost the end of the of the deficit, but rather will be part of its decade, and wages barely outpacing infla- solution. This is so because, under any rea- Commissioner of Social Security and a tion. sonable assumptions, income to the self-fi- member of the National Commission, Of course, the economy is already much nanced OASDI trust funds will exceed and Mr. Myers, the highly respected better than that. And, as the Congressional outgo during the near-future years and for a former Chief Actuary and Deputy Budget Office's new projections show, even couple of decades. thereafter. It would not Commissioner of Social Security who if the economy heads back into a recession a seem reasonable to further help reduce the served as executive director of the year or so from now, the trust funds should general federal deficits by cuts in the Social Commission write that the economic have sufficient reserves to make it through Security program which, in itself, is in a assumptions used by the National the tightest period before legislated tax in- state of positive fiscal balance. Commission were- creases begin to build up the funds later in The CED report leaves the implication the decade. And, if economic conditions (which Rowen latches on to) that, if eco- Slightly on the pessimistic side (and cur- become very bad, the law now contains a nomic conditions are only slightly worse rently economic conditions are more favora- safeguard that keeps benefit cost-of-living than the intermediate assumptions, the ble. Moreover, even under the pessimistic adjustments from outpacing wages when system will be insolvent before the end of assumptions, the financing of the system trust fund reserves are low. the 1980s. This is not correct, because the will be reasonably adequate in the 1980's, Beyond this decade, it's important to re- intermediate assumptions are, we believe, and it would take much more than a small member, the retirement trust fund is slightly on the pessimistic side (and current- unfavorable wiggle in basic trends to pro- headed toward a period of surpluses. That's ly economic conditions are more favorable). duce a financial crisis. because the generation that will be retiring Moreover, even under the pessimistic as- Mr. Ball and Mr. Myers make a in the mid-1990s was born in the low-birth- sumptions, the financing of the system will second point of considerable impor- rate years of the Depression, while the be reasonably adequate in the 1980s, and it labor force, which pays Social Security would take much more than "a small unfa- tance: taxes, will still be swollen by the baby-boom vorable wiggle in basic trends" to produce a The social security program, which will be generation. financial crisis. part of the unified budget until 1992, will Sometime in the next century, when the This is not to say that there is no possible not be a part of the deficit, but rather will baby-boomers reach retirement, the surplus- scenario that would cause the Social Secu- be part of its solution. es will disappear, as the CED warns. Howev- rity system to have short-term financing March 20, 1984 CONGRESSIONAL RECORD SENATE S 2927 problems. What it would take is something I have introduced legislation to pro- like double-digit unemployment. with wages making an important contribution to rising no more rapidly than prices. This we vide a Federal matching grant pro- marine resource management through believe to be very improbable. gram for computer education and research and field services designed to Even under the pessimistic assumptions of teacher training. I think that comput- promote the development, use, and the 1983 Trustees Report, the OASDI trust er education can serve to enhance the conservation of ocean and coastal re- funds would have a balance of at least two teaching of more traditional academic sources. month's outgo at all times in the 1980s. and intellectual skills. Putting comput- By designating the "Year of the while under the intermediate assumptions ers in classrooms will not be a solution Ocean" Congress can renew its com- this ratio would, desirably. build up and for the problems in education. Howev- mitment to addressing the problems would amount to about five months' outgo er, with careful planning, computers at the beginning of 1990, and increase rapid- which threaten the ocean and coastal ly thereafter. can provide a new tool for teaching zone. Passage of this resolution can We see no reason to make changes in the writing, mathematics, social studies, enhance public awareness of our tre- benefit structure in order to provide an even and other courses, and analytical mendous reliance upon marine re- wider margin of safety than now exists. skills. sources, as well as the consequences of Reauthorization of the Vocational failing to manage them wisely. Education Act must be a top priority The ocean is essential to the life of STRENGTHENING AMERICAN for 1984. Solid vocational training is the world. The "Year of the Ocean" EDUCATION important in preparing students for program can help us to focus on its im- Mr. LAUTENBERG. Mr. President, productive careers. portance in each of our lives. I hope few issues have more importance to Another major unfinished item on my colleagues will join in supporting the future of our country than educa- the education agenda is legislation to the passage of this resolution and pro- tion. Our ability to compete in the in- improve math and science education. moting its observance. ternational economy in years to come, The House of Representatives passed our ability to continue as a nation of a math and science bill last spring. but opportunity for all, and to advance to- the Senate has not yet scheduled con- HONORING JACK DEMPSEY gether as a nation, is dependent on the sideration of its version of the bill. Mr. D'AMATO. Mr. President, I rise education provided our young people. The present unhappy state of to ask this body to honor one of Recent reports from the Commission American education has not developed America's greatest sports legends, the on Excellence on Education and overnight, nor will it be improved im- others highlight existing weaknesses mediately. But there must be a starting late Jack Dempsey. A legend in the boxing ring as well as in everyday life, in our educational programs. Indeed, point on the road to recovery. the National Commission on Excel- We must not fail our children by re- Jack Dempsey's rise to heavyweight lence in Education has likened the sit- fusing to heed the harsh message of champion made him an example of uation in American education today to the Nation at Risk report. We owe the American spirit throughout the unthinking. unilateral education them the bright promise of a good "Golden Age of Sports," the 1920's. education. We owe their teachers our Like other legendary sports figures disarmament. strong support. And we owe the of that era, such as Babe Ruth. Bobby If such an incident had been leveled Nation an adequate investment in our Jones, and Johnny Weissmuller. Jack at the defense establishment in this educational system If we hope to pros- Dempsey's style and accomplishments country, the cries of dismay from the White House and the Congress would per and maintain U.S. leadership in in his sport were revolutionary. Demp- the world economy sey's aggressive "bob and weave" style have been loud and instantaneous. ended the era of standup defensive Reaction to the harsh assessment of style boxing forever and turned boxing the Education Commission has been YEAR OF THE OCEAN into a top drawing spectator sport. more temperate. Nevertheless. Mr. Mr. CHAFEE. Mr. President. the Winning the heavyweight crown for President, I. for one, must express my ocean environment remains one of our the first time in 1919, Dempsey re- deep chargin over the state into which country's most precious natural trea- tained the title until 1926. But his loss our educational system has fallen. As sures. In order to encourage better un- did not affect his popularity with the the Commission on Excellence report derstanding and appreciation of the American public. Jack Dempsey re- rightly notes. citizens look to educa- need to preserve ocean and coastal re- mained a hero because he found suc- tors and elected officials to provide sources, I am pleased to join Senator cess in his failures. an accomplishment leadership to reverse educational STEVENS as a cosponsor of Senate Joint endearing to many people who viewed trends in our country. Resolution 257, designating the 12- Dempsey's rise to champion as repre- Providing more money for education month period beginning July 1, 1984, sentative of the everyday battles of is by no means the only answer to dif- as the "Year of the Ocean." most ordinary Americans. ficulties in education today. However, I represent the Ocean State. The sea His life before becoming champion approval of increased educational ex- figures prominently in Rhode Island's also adds to the legend his name car- penditures can give encouragement to heritage. Narragansett Bay remains ries. The son of an impoverished Mid- educators doing their best under diffi- our preeminent natural, commercial. western family. a miner at 13, a veter- cult circumstances in the Nation's and recreational resource. Rhode Is- an of hobo jungles at 19, and classrooms. It can provide increased landers cherish the ocean for its heavyweight champion of the world at resources for existing programs that beauty, for its rich abundance of 24, Jack Dempsey's struggle is a true have proved their effectiveness. It can marine life. and for what it contrib- symbol of the American dream. help initiate new programs. utes to our State's economy. His legend is further supported by This year I have been working in the Rhode Islanders are also keenly his unfailing kindness outside of the Senate as part of a special working aware of the fragility of delicate ocean ring. From his restaurant on Broad- group on education set up by Minority and coastal habitats. The problems way, Jack Dempsey played the role of Leader ROBERT BYRD. Our group will posed by pollution. waste disposal, host to the city of New York, as well be seeking a consensus on the appro- coastal development, and energy ex- as of a gentle, charitable man, always priate spending levels for education in ploration constantly threaten the willing to help the unfortunate and the fiscal year 1985 budget. After al- ocean environment and require action the needy. lowing for inflation, the President's to preserve marine resources. Touted as the greatest fighter of the budget request is about $5 billion As we continue to exploit the wealth half century in 1950 and inducted into below what education spending was 4 of the ocean, it is our responsibility to the Boxing Hall of Fame in 1954, Jack years ago. While we may not be able to plan now for the prudent management Dempsey is still remembered as one of make up this entire shortfall. I cer- of the marine environment. The Uni- the greatest fighters of all time. But tainly think an increase over the versity of Rhode Island's distinguished his legend is incomplete without men- President's proposed budget is needed. Graduate School of Oceanography is tion of his kindness out of the boxing Services of Mead Data Central PAGE 7 6TH STORY of Level 1 printed in FULL format. Proprietary to the United Press International 1988 December 31, 1988, Saturday, BC cycle SECTION: Washington News LENGTH: 313 words HEADLINE: Moynihan praises Social Security system BYLINE: By ROBIN GREENE DATELINE: WASHINGTON KEYWORD: Reagan-Dems BODY: Sen. Patrick Moynihan, D-N.Y., praised the Social Security system Saturday as ''the most successful policy ever devised in our land'' and then 4 ade a New Year plea on behalf of needy children in the United States. Moynihan, who delivered the Democratic response to President Reagan's weekly radio address, got off an optimistic note by asking Americans to join him in ''a special wish for President and Mrs. Reagan. The New York senator noted that he and the president had been sparring with each other for the past eight years, saying 'they've been fair fights from first to last'' and admitting, ''I'm going to miss them. ''Our first go-round had to do with Social Security,' Moynihan said in praising the entitlement program. 'Without Social Security, almost half of the elderly would be poor today,' he said. 'With Social Security, Medicare and other government programs, the number of elderly poor has all but disappeared. ''Social Security is the most successful policy ever divised in our land,' Moynihan said. Citing a Census Bureau study released last week, Moynihan said: ''I wish I could report that the study concluded the same for children. It did not. ... Government benefit programs hardly touch child poverty. Moynihan said the study showed that 'there are two kinds of children in America and they live in two kind of families. The senator said children who live in two parent families will never be poor while children in single-parent families ''will almost always be poor sooner or later. 'Their numbers are staggering,'' Moynihan said. ''As many as one-third of our children live this way today. We've become the first industrial nation on earth in which children are the worst-off group. Calling child poverty ''the great challenge before us,'' Moynihan said: ''If we get to work, it will really be a happy New Year. LEXIS® NEXIS® LEXIS® NEXIS 5 so/v4/Conspirators, Trillions, Limos in the Night tunity as peril, he went on: floor. If he was as optimistic as his ar- And President Reagan was not going By Daniel Patrick Moynihan "Social Security is a case in point. ticle suggested, shouldn't we make to do anything to prevent it. With 116 million workers supporting one last try? Two days later, he and I And so we would. Until then, Social It all started 05-23-88 WASHINGTON it and 36 million beneficiaries relying and Representative Barber B. Cona- Security had been on a pay-as-you-go his appears to be the on it, Social Security overwhelms ble Jr. were secreted out to White basis, with a little cushion to take every other domestic priority. House chief of staff James A. Baker with a Dole T season for disclosing care of economic downturns. We Washington secrets, Through a combination of relatively 3d's house in northwest Washington. could have fluffed up that cushion and and I don't see why modest steps, including some accel- Negotiations began. let it go at that. We decided instead on article. only Republicans eration of already scheduled taxes In time, we shifted our talks to a radical change in policy. Hence- should be able to play. and some reduction in the rate of fu- Blair House (which was empty, owing forth, we would collect and save for I've got a pretty good one. Secret ture benefit increases, the system to the chandelier incident), and on the. the far future, and not just the next messages concealed on the Op-Ed can be saved. When it is, much of the night of Saturday, Jan. 15, we reached year. An immense reserve would be- page of The New York Times. Whis- credit, rightfully, will belong to this agreement on arrangements to save gin to accumulate before beginning to 1994. As public debt declines, national pered conversations on the Senate President and his party." the system, which were promptly en- run down about 2030. In the process, savings increase. floor. White House limos hurtling Oh? Not 24 hours earlier the budget dorsed by the commission and the we would pay off the national debt. By 2010 the Social Security reserve through the wintry night to a house in director, David A. Stockman, had President. We have now had four full calendar is projected to be nearly $4.5 trillion. northwest Washington. A bedroom - foretold that the "most devastating Most of this story is now familiar. years of the new revenue base. The ($4,460,600,000,0001) If we wanted to yup on the second floor of the bankruptcy in history," that of the So- Here is what is not generally under- trustees have just reported, and I go all the way, we could probably President's guest house, where nights cial Security Trust Funds, was only stood. Almost everyone Involved have just had the first oversight hear- have zero national debt by that time. earlier a visiting potentate would months away. Which wasn't so, but a knew - by then that the Adminis- ing. Here are the numbers. The Social For the first time, incidentally, since have been skewered by a plunging lot of people believed him. What the tration had got the nation's finances Security Trust Funds are increasing 1836- when we were down to $38,000. chandelier had he not been mysteri- columnist Sylvia Porter called "a in terrible shape. Mr. Stockman, who at the rate of $109,440,000 per day and We could of course blow the oppor- ously otherwise engaged at the scare campaign of vicious propor- joined our deliberations, has written rising. tunity. We could start to "spend" the Watergate. tions" had been going on. The new about this in great detail. There The current reserve is approaching Social Security surplus rather than Huddled conspirators. Big bucks. breed of conservatives seemed to de- would be $200 billion budget deficits $100 billion. Between now and the using it to retire debt, and so get rid of Like, maybe, trillions? test the program even more than the "as far as the eye could see." The na- year 2000 it will grow to $1.4 trillion. the deficit. (Which for practical pur- Trouble is it was really on the up old breed. And the funds were going tional debt would triple in eight years. (As of 1987, the entire assets of pri- poses now consists almost entirely of and up. And has a happy ending. So I down, the result of an interval vate pension funds were about $1.49 debt service.) But surely we should don't suppose it would sell, and I in the 1970's when prices ran ahead of billion.) This revenue stream must be "save" it, and thus put aside the fis- might as well come out with it here wages so that cost-of-living adjust- deposited with the Treasury. If at the cal mess of the 80's. and now. ments were not being offset A true end of the day the Treasury has more Our real economic problem is that In brief, in 12 days in January 1983, by increased payments into the money on hand than it needs, it sim- we don't save enough. Of 24 members a half dozen people in Washington put funds. inside ply retires privately held of the Organization for Economic in place a revenue stream that is just A year or so earlier, the Senate ma- debt. Cooperation and Development, we beginning to flow and that, if we don't jority leader, Howard H. Baker Jr., This can sound arcane but isn't. rank 20th, followed by Iceland, and a blow it, will put the Federal budget had put together a bipartisan Na- story Every week some millions of Treas- few such. Yet, as one witness at our back in the black, pay off the pri- tional Commission on Social Security ury bonds and bills "mature" and are oversight hearings put it, by the next vately held Government debt, jump Reform. Mr. Dole and I were appoint- revealed by cashed in. At present, the Treasury decade we could be "awash in capt start the savings rate and guarantee ed. Alan Greenspan was made chair- "rolls over" the debt, issuing new tal." This is the one sure way - sav- the Social Security Trust Funds for a man. Months went by with no appar- the Senator bonds or bills to get the cash to pay ing and investment - to make cer- half century and more. ent movement from either side. Then, off the old ones. But if it isn't short of tain the Social Security funds are still It all began on a Monday morning, suddenly, this signal from Mr. Dole. Who Knows! cash it needn't do this. The national ample when the baby boom retirees. Jan. 3. Bob Dole of Kansas had an Op- He and Mr. Greenspan had come to debt begins to shrink. One further point. In the near term, Ed article that insisted that things understand that the system's prob- Our present deficit "path" takes us, the proportion of retired persons in would soon be looking up for the Ad- lems really were temporary and that in theory at least, to a zero deficit by the population will be quite stable: ministration - there was a near-de- in the long term it could be made he- 1993. If that happens, the revenue the depression babies. Today, there pression on - and that Congressional roically solvent. stream from Social Security will be are 21 persons retired for every 100 of Republicans were behind him. Noth- On the day I was sworn in for a sec- sufficient to begin retiring debt by working age. This ratio stays flat ing special, save for one paragraph. ond term, I went over to Mr. Dole, through 2010. Claims on the funds will Having said that the issues confront- who happened to be on the Senate be steady. ing them presented as much oppor- There you have it. Hard to believe? Yes. But within our grasp. Daniel Patrick Moynihan, Democrat All done in 12 days in January. of New York, is chairman of the Sen- ate Finance Committee's subcommi- lee on Social Security and Family Policy. Moynihan's plan makes Bush the tax ogre By Donald Lambro ers. from some of his traditional sup- class Americans are clearly over- THE WASHINGTON TIMES The proposal by New York Sen. porters. taxed." Daniel Patrick Moynihan, which "This is a very dumb thing for the There were even some within the A Democratic proposal to reduce would cut the payroll tax by more [administration] to be doing," said WASHINGTON TIMES 1/11/90 administration, such as Housing and Social Security taxes is winning than a percentage point, has Kate O'Beirne, deputy director for Urban Development Secretary Jack cheers from conservatives and busi- spawned an internal political debate domestic policy studies at the Heri- Kemp, who made it known yesterday ness groups, but it has put President within the White House, according tage Foundation, which has enthusi- that they support the idea of cutting Bush in the risky position of oppos- to administration officials. astically endorsed the Moynihan tax the payroll tax to boost savings and ing a politically appealing tax cut It also has triggered some unusu- cut. "Cutting the payroll tax is good aimed at his middle-class support- ally harsh criticism of Mr. Bush politics and good policy. Working- see TAXES, page A10 TAXES helped the Republicans win the opposed by Mr. Bush. Mr. Darman Ironically, the strongest and most White House in five out of the last says the $55 billion in lost Social Se- immediate support for Mr. Moy- six presidential elections. curity revenue that the tax cut would From page Al nihan's proposal has come from an Among other things, say eco- cost in 1991 alone would balloon the unholy alliance of liberal and con- economic growth. nomic and political analysts, it hands deficit and lead to renewed Demo- servative organizations, business "[Budget Director Richard] Dar- the Democrats a golden opportunity cratic pressure to raise the top in- groups and some GOP leaders in man's position that he wants to keep to appeal to traditionally Republican come tax rates. Congress. In addition to Heritage's the [Social Security] surplus buildup voters and at the same time turn the Mr. Moynihan has yet to say how endorsement, the proposal has won and opposes the tax cut is inconsis- tables on the Bush administration by he will offset this revenue loss, favorable reactions from the liber- tent with Jack's position," said a top forcing it to oppose a popular tax- whether through spending cuts or tarian Cato Institute, the National Kemp aide. "He sees this as a burden cutting idea. tax increases elsewhere. Taxpayers Union, the National Fed- on middle-income workers and "Poor George Bush," said Robert White House Chief of Staff John eration of Independent Business small businesses." Shapiro, director of economic stud- Sununu said earlier this week that and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. ies with the Progressive Policy Insti- the administration was against cut- Mr. Moynihan chairs the Senate "It's a good idea," said David Boaz, Finance subcommittee on Social Se- executive vice president of the Cato curity and is considered by groups Institute. The administration "ought representing the elderly to be one of Ironically, the strongest and most immediate to become an enthusiastic sponsor of the program's strongest supporters. it. Otherwise, they'll let the Demo- He surprised his party's leadership support for Mr. Moynihan's proposal has come crats steal the most successful Re- and the administration when he un- from an unholy alliance of liberal and publican issue." expectedly announced late last Support on the left also has come month that he would introduce legis- conservative organizations, business groups from the Institute of Policy Studies, lation to cut the payroll tax when where public policy analyst Robert Congress returns to business on Jan. and some GOP leaders in Congress. Borosage has called the idea "good 23. economics, good public policy and The Social Security tax rate that good politics - the first protest of funds the retirement portion of the an increasingly hard-pressed mid- tute, a Democratic think tank, and a ting the payroll tax until the deficit program increased on Jan. 1 from dle class." close Moynihan adviser. "The White was eliminated. Mr. Bush is ex- 6.06 percent to 6.2 percent. Mr. On Capitol Hill, Sen. Robert Kas- House decision to oppose the Moynihan would repeal that in- pected to propose an alternative plan Moynihan tax cut makes him not ten of Wisconsin, one of the leading in his forthcoming budget to grad- crease retroactively and then cut the Republican supply-side tax cutters, only the president of no new taxes tax rate further to 5.1 percent by ually reduce the national debt by has indicated he would like to co- but of no new tax cuts." using the accumulated Social Secu- Jan. 1, 1991. According to Mr. Shapiro, an en- sponsor the measure. GOP support rity surpluses. "This would be a $55 billion tax also has been voiced by House Mi- thusiastic supporter of the idea, cut for working people in 1991, and Nevertheless, aides to the presi- nority Whip Newt Gingrich of Geor- "The Democrats have learned the the amount would be greater in fu- dent said yesterday that Mr. Moy- gia and Rep. Henry Hyde of Illinois. lesson that the Republicans have ture years," Mr. Moynihan said in an- nihan's proposal has been getting However, Democratic leaders taught them, that there is never a long and serious scrutiny. nouncing the idea. have yet to reveal their positions, political cost to cutting taxes. I think "There's been a lot of debate over His proposal would benefit pri- though Ed Lopez, Mr. Moynihan's the political temptation is too great it, pro and con," said one Bush ad- marily working-class and middle- chief Social Security aide, said the for the Democrats to turn away from viser. "This is a very clever political income taxpayers the bedrock po- this." senator has been receiving support litical constituencies that have move by Moynihan, but we don't from Democratic offices "at the The Moynihan proposal is flatly think it's going to hurt us politically." staff level" for the idea. SUPPLEMENTARY STATEMENT BY Commissioners Robert M. Ball, Martha Keys, Lane Kirkland, Daniel Patrick Moynihan and Claude Pepper (members selected by the Democratic leadership of the Congress) Long-Term Financing and Issues of Special Concern to Women Meeting the Remaining Long-Term Deficit All of us supported the compromise agreement which is being recommended by a vote of 12 to 3 of the full Commission.1/ The agreement provides for fully meeting the Commission's short-term financing goal and also for meeting about two-thirds of the Commission's long-term goal--1.22% of payroll out of the 1.8% projected need. We recommend that the remaining 0.58% of payroll deficit be met by providing additional revenues starting in the year 2010, in advance of the period when the bulk of the deficit is projected to occur. Sufficient additional revenues would be provided by an increase of less than one-half of 1% (0.46%) in deductions from workers' earnings beginning in 2010 and a like amount in employer payroll taxes (with an equal combined rate for the self-employed) or the revenue could be supplied by an equivalent general revenue contribution, or 7/8 some combination of the two. For purposes of present legislation we would support putting in the law now an increase in the contribution rate beginning in 2010 of 0.46% of payroll (with the employee contribution offset by a refundable income tax credit) recognizing, of course, that in the next century the Congress may prefer to raise the money in some other way and that, in fact, such a rate increase would not be allowed to go into effect unless estimates at the time of the scheduled increase showed that it would be needed. Social Security - 2 to about 42 percent of their last pay- check. The package would reduce this Benefit Cuts Under Pickle Plan "replacement rate" to 40 percent. In addition, Heimz' amendment Percentage of Full Retirement Benefits* called for elimination of the current penalty imposed on beneficiaries who Age at Current End of End of work after they reach retirement age, Retirement Law Stage One (2009) Stage Two (2027) over a five-year period beginning in 1990. Now, benefits are reduced $1 for 62 80.0% 75.0% 70.0% every $2 retirees up to age 70 earn 63 86.7 80.0 75.0 over $6,600 a year. 64 93.3 86.7 80.0 The package also would increase 65 100.0 93.3 benefits for those who leave the work 86.7 66 103.0 100.0 force to care for their children at home 93.3 67 106.0 108.0 100.0 under age six. Currently, a worker's five lowest-earning, or non-earning, "Percentage of benefits available to a worker who retires at the normal retirement age. years are not counted when determin- ing his or her initial Social Security benefit. The bill would allow two addi- tional "drop-out" years for child care. tion for his long defense of the elderly, and charged it would penalize the mil- The committee rejected 15-2 a most would not give him their votes. lions of workers who must retire early proposal by Daniel Patrick Moynihan, The Pickle amendment was ap- because of poor health or mandatory D-N.Y., to raise payroll taxes in the proved by a 228-202 vote, with the retirement. year 2010, in place of benefit cuts. backing of 152 Republicans and 76 "This amendment assumes peo- Democrats, including Ways and ple are able to work longer than they Other Finance Action Means Chairman Dan Rostenkowski, are now. This is just not the case," The committee also rejected 11-6 D-Ill., and a majority of committee argued James M. Shannon, D-Mass. a motion by Russell B. Long, D-La., to members. (Vote 20, p. 530) "This will simply cut their benefits." delay the effective date of a provision Pepper's measure, despite the But Pickle defended the age in- calling for Social Security coverage of backing of House Speaker Thomas P. crease as necessary to keep up with new federal employees until a supple- O'Neill Jr., D-Mass., was rejected by a changing demographics. He pointed mental Civil Service retirement plan vote of 132-296. (Vote 21, p. 530) out that life expectancy had increased could be established. "History is being written on this more than 10 years since the 65-year Members have given assurances floor. We are changing the tradition of retirement age was set in place over 40 that such-a supplemental plan would this country," O'Neill said when it was years ago. be set up, but federal workers fear apparent the Pepper measure would Raising the retirement age is "not they face retirement benefit cuts if no fail. "In America, each generation has harsh," he said. "That is just in keep- new workers are available to pay into always paid for the generation that ing with the times." their current system. has gone before them." Pickle's amendment also would Federal employee unions have The controversy over raising the require the Department of Health and waged an all-out campaign to defeat retirement age or increasing taxes has Human Services to make recommen- the coverage provision, but have met been one of the major ones surround- dations by Jan. 1, 1986, on how Con- with little success so far. Finance ing the Social Security crisis. gress should deal with individuals who Chairman Robert Dole, R-Kan., Pepper's impassioned plea to his cannot retire later because of phys- charged that a delay in the Jan. 1, colleagues not to cut benefits won him ically demanding jobs. 1984, effective date would only give a standing ovation, but it was not Those voting against passage of lobbyists a longer time to fight for re- enough to convince most members the bill included both liberals opposed peal. that the "structural" change of a to the higher retirement age and cov- Besides agreeing to the package of higher retirement age was the best erage of federal employees and conser- long-term provisions, the committee way to restore the confidence of cur- vatives opposed to additional taxes. made several other changes in the rent workers in the retirement system. House bill. One of the major ones was The Pickle amendment would Senate Solution a proposal by Long to cut beneficia- raise the retirement age in two stages. The Finance Committee agreed to ries' cost-of-living checks, as a last re- 9 The first would be a gradual increase a broader package of changes to ad- sort, if reserves in the Social Security from 65 to 66 over a six-year period dress the system's long-range prob- trust funds fall below a certain level ending in the year 2009. The second lems. because of unexpectedly bad economic increase would be from 66 to 67 over The package, proposed by John conditions. another six-year period ending in the Heinz, R-Pa., and adopted 13-4, called The provision would go into effect year 2027. for a gradual increase in the retire- in 1985, but would be used only after While individuals still would be ment age from 65 to 66 over a 15-year all other emergency measures allowed able to take early retirement at age 62, period beginning in the year 2000. in the bill - including borrowing be- their benefits would be reduced from It also would reduce initial bene- tween the system's three trust funds the current 80 percent of full benefits fits by 5 percent beginning the same - had been exhausted. to 70 percent in 2027. (Box, above) year. Currently, workers receive an The bill also would require the Opponents seized on this change initial Social Security payment equal managers of the trust funds to give COPYRIGHT 1983 CONGRESSIONAL QUARTERLY INC. PAGE 488-March 12, 1983 Reproduction prohibited in whole or in part except by editorial clients. Social Security - 3 six-months' notice that such a benefit jobless benefits than the program Both bills are based on the ad- cut might be necessary so that Con- adopted by the House. Existing emer- ministration plan to provide for a sys- gress would have the option to make gency benefits, approved by Congress tem of set prices for ingatient treat- other adjustments to the system be- last year, are set to expire March 31. ment of different illnesses, and they fore the COLA cuts were made. (Background, Weekly Report p. 420) prohibit charging individual patients The committee also agreed to: The Senate measure - expected more than the set price. Hospitals de- Include tax-exempt income when to cost over $2 billion - would allow livering care for less than the set price computing a beneficiary's income to up to eight more weeks of benefits to may keep the difference. This scheme determine if his or her Social Security those individuals who have exhausted would replace the existing system in benefits should be taxed. Both the up to 55 weeks of federal and state which, within certain limits, hospitals House and Senate bills call for tax- benefits before April 1. The House bill are paid after delivery of care for the ation of a portion of benefits for indi- would allow up to 10 more weeks. portion of their total costs attribut- viduals whose adjusted gross income, In addition, individuals who do able to Medicare patients. plus 50 percent of Social Security not qualify for the federal emergency The set prices would not include benefits, exceeds $25,000 ($32,000 for benefits until after April 1 could re- hospitals' teaching costs or capital ex- married couples filing a joint return). ceive up to 14 weeks of additional penditures for construction or major The proposal was offered by John benefits depending on their state's equipment; those costs would con- H. Chafee, R-R.I., who argued that jobless rate, under the Finance bill. tinue to be paid under the existing some beneficiaries might try to avoid Those who have not exhausted system. The Senate bill, however, the new tax by diverting their taxable their emergency benefits when the ex- mandates that capital costs be income into tax-exempt income. tension expires Sept. 30 could receive factored into the new price structure Provide a more generous tax up to 50 percent of their remaining after October 1986. Many medical credit to offset higher taxes for the payments after the expiration date. economists regard controls on capital self-employed. The Finance Commit- The Senate bill also would pro- expenditures to be an important step tee bill calls for a credit against self- vide a plan to give certain hard-hit toward controlling inflation in health employment taxes of 2.9 percent in states some leeway in repaying inter- care costs. 1984, 2.5 percent in 1985, 2.2 percent est owed on outstanding loans from Both bills substitute a four-year in 1986, 2.1 percent in 1987-89 and 2.3 the federal unemployment trust fund. phase-in of the new payment method percent after 1989. Currently, states owe about $12 billion for the Oct. 1 effective date suggested The House bill calls for a credit of to the fund, and many see little chance by the administration. Both require 2.1 percent in 1984, 1.8 percent in of being able to repay the loans, or separate rates for urban and rural hos- 1985-87 and 1.9 percent after 1987. make large interest payments, soon. pitals, and for different regions of the Both measures would increase payroll Under the plan, states would be country; the administration plan had taxes for the self-employed 33 percent, allowed to spread their interest pay- called for a single, national schedule of beginning in 1984, to equal the com- ments over a five-year period if they rates with area adjustments only for bined taxes now paid by employers can show that they are taking steps to labor costs. Both would give state cost and employees. improve the solvency of their state un- control systems substantially more au- Eliminate Social Security benefits employment compensation programs. thority than the administration for non-resident aliens, their depen- The committee also agreed to ac- wanted to depart from the set-price dents and survivors, except for pay- cept provisions in the House bill to payment method if they meet certain ments equal to the amount the alien increase monthly SSI benefits $20 and criteria. worker had paid into the system, plus to delay a scheduled SSI COLA six Both bills require the secretary of interest. months until January 1985. health and human services to study Expand Social Security coverage and report to Congress on the feasibil- to include all new federal employees, Medicare Provisions ity of applying the new price system to members of Congress, the president The Senate bill's Medicare provi- physician services in the future. and vice president. The House bill sions are generally the same as those also would include top political in the House measure, with differ- appointees, certain elected officials ences in certain details. (House bill, and sitting federal judges. Weekly Report p. 455) Exempt from Social Security cov- For instance, both bills depart CLARIFICATION erage members of the Amish religious from the administration proposal by sect who work for Amish employers. mandating that hospital admission Medicare Payments. Weekly Allow the three Social Security patterns and other factors be reviewed Report p. 457, col. 3, 2nd full para- trust funds to borrow from each other to guard against costly manipulations graph. The Gephardt amendment per- through 1987, as long as no funds were of the new system, or poor care for mits hospitals to bill separately for borrowed from the Hospital Insurance patients. But the Senate measure services provided during hospitaliza- (HI) trust fund, which finances Medi- specifies that Professional Review Or- tion if the hospital billed separately care, when its reserves were low. ganizations (PROs) authorized in the for such services before Oct. 1, 1982. Eliminate Social Security benefits 1982 tax bill must do the job, while the However, because the legislation (HR for imprisoned felons. House bill permits the use of other 1900) includes an overall prohibition Jobless Benefits/SSI types of organizations. The Senate bill against billing individual Medicare does not include a House provision patients, separate billings under this The Finance Committee also authorizing severe penalties for cer- provision would be allowed only to agreed to a slightly less generous six- tain violations of the system or com- Part B of Medicare, the optional plan month extension of federal emergency promised quality of care. that covers physician fees. COPYRIGHT 1983 CONGRESSIONAL QUARTERLY INC Reproduction prohibited in whole or - pan except by admond chents March 12, 1983-PAGE 489 REPORT OF THE NATIONAL COMMISSION ON SOCIAL SECURITY REFORM JANUARY 1983 The National Commission makes the following recommendations unanimously: (1) The members of the National Commission believe that the Congress, in its deliberations on financing proposals, should not alter the fundamental structure of the Social Security program or undermine its fundamental principles.* The National Commission considered, but rejected, proposals to make the Social Security program a voluntary one, or to transform it into a program under which benefits are a product exclusively of the contributions paid, or to convert it into a fully-funded program, or to change it to a program under which benefits are conditioned on the showing of financial need.** (2) The National Commission recommends that, for purposes of considering the short-range financial status of the OASDI Trust Funds, $150-200 billion in either additional income or in decreased outgo (or a combination of both) should be provided for the OASDI Trust Funds in calendar years 1983-89. (3) The National Commission finds that, for purposes of considering the long-range financial status of the OASDI Trust Funds, its actuarial See additional views of Commissioner Archer in Chapter 4. See additional views (with regard to the last point) of Commissioners Archer, Fuller, and Waggonner in Chapter 4. 10 2- 2 of Social Security Leaders Optimistic: all new federal employees and workers in non-profit organizations beginning Jan. 1, 1984, and would include all Social Security Rescue Plan current and new members of Congress under the Social Security system. In addition, both bills include a Rushes to Final Hill Accord major revamping of the way the gov- ernment reimburses hospitals under Setting partisanship aside, the one of the biggest Senate opponents of Medicare and a six-month extension full House and the Senate Finance the commission plan, praised the Fi- of an emergency jobless benefit pro- Committee have given a Social Secu- nance Committee bill, although he gram. They also increase certain Sup- rity rescue plan a quick push toward said he still planned to offer some plemental Security Income (SSI) floor amendments. benefits for the aged, blind and dis- final passage. The House March 9, by a 282-148 He observed that quick action in abled poor. vote, passed a bill (HR 1900) to keep both houses and adoption of the re- the system from going broke. The Fi- tirement-age increase had proved "the Pickle or Pepper? nance Committee approved a similar cynics are wrong. There are occasions Final House passage did not come measure (S 1) the following day by a when Congress will rally to the task without a sometimes emotional floor vote of 18-1. (House vote 23, p. 530) and do what is politically hard." debate over the best way to solve the The legislation now goes to the Armstrong and other conserva- system's projected financial difficul- Senate floor where debate is expected tives had criticized the commission's ties when the Baby Boom generation to begin March 15 or 16. Congres- rescue plan because of its reliance on begins to retire in the next century. sional leaders are optimistic about some large tax increases to keep the The president's commission left sending a package to President Rea- gan before the March 26 Easter break. The votes in both houses heralded the end of nearly two years of bitter partisan bickering over Social Secu- rity. Members indicated they expected little trouble with the legislation be- fore it reaches the president's desk. "The cynics are wrong. Congress must complete action There are occasions when Con- soon or the financially troubled retire- gress will rally to the task and ment system will be unable to pay out do what is politically hard." some 36 million benefit checks in July. The House and Finance Commit- -Sen. William L. Armstrong, R-Colo. tee measures closely parallel the rec- ommendations made in January by the president's National Commission on Social Security Reform. But they also include provisions dealing with the system's long-range problems - an area where the commission could system afloat. One critic, Steven D. not reach consensus - that appear to that sensitive issue unresolved, and Symms, R-Idaho, cast the one dissent- have dampened much of the conserva- the House Ways and Means Commit- ing vote in the Finance Committee. tive opposition to the commission tee bill called for a hybrid solution - Both bills would raise about $165 plan. (Commission recommendations, cutting benefits and raising taxes - Weekly Report p. 155) billion over the next seven years. They with the understanding that two sub- are expected to solve the retirement These include steps in both bills stitute proposals would be considered and disability system's financial prob- to raise the retirement age. The House on the floor. (Weekly Report p. 453) would raise the age gradually from 65 lems well into the next century by Besides an amendment raising to 67 by the year 2027; the Senate raising a total of almost $1.9 trillion the retirement age - offered by Social over a 75-year period. Finance Committee approved a one- Security Subcommittee Chairman Besides increasing the retirement year increase by the year 2015, but it J.J. Pickle, D-Texas - Rules Com- age, the two measures would raise also agreed to cut initial benefits 5 mittee Chairman Claude Pepper, D- scheduled payroll taxes over the next percent after the turn of the century. Fla., proposed a .53 percentage point William L. Armstrong, R-Colo., decade, delay the July cost-of-living increase in payroll taxes in the year allowance (COLA) six months and tax 2010 to prevent a cut in benefits. the Social Security benefits of high- But House members showed dur- -By Pamela Fessler income individuals for the first time. ing the debate that while they were and Elizabeth Wehr They also call for the coverage of willing to give Pepper their admira- 11/12 COPYRIGHT 1983 CONGRESSIONAL QUARTERLY INC Reproduction prohibited or port except by editorial clients March 12, 1983-PAGE 487 :01-19-90 Fight Over Tax Cut Heats Up As Bush and Moynihan Dig In By DAVID E. ROSENBAUM Special to The New York Times WASHINGTON, Jan. 18 - An emerg- ing battle over whether to,cut Social Se- system and the extent to which Social curity taxes heated up today with Security revenue is being used to mask President Bush sharply criticizing the have to cut benefits at some time, and the size of the Government's budget proposed cut while the author of the the President and the Republican deficit. But the Democrats, and most proposal, Senator Daniel Patrick Party now have an opportunity to show moderate Republicans, also believe Moynihan, said he would not budge. the American people, once and for all, that the country cannot afford a tax cut that the Republicans are as committed of any kind. Their statements indicated that Mr. Moynihan's proposal could trigger a to the integrity of this Social Security Schumer Sees Economic Danger fierce political and legislative battle trust fund as anybody." Reflecting that conviction, Repre- over a sensitive issue. Moynihan Sees No Budget Link sentative Charles E. Schumer, a Brook- Senator Moynihan was interviewed lyn Democrat who is on the Banking Mr. Bush called the Senator's pro- by in a telephone call to Jerusalem, and Budget committees, said a tax cut posal to cut Social Security taxes a where he is winding up a trip for the would drive up the deficit, cause more "charade" that would lead to a tax in- Foreign Relations Committee to Africa Government borrowing, soak up pri- crease or lower retirement benefits. and the Middle East. vate savings and damage long-term Mr. Moynihan, in his first interview on "No, no, no," the Senator said when economic growth. the subject since he made the proposal asked whether his proposal was a trap Senator Moynihan said he hoped that to force an increase in the income tax the President and Congress could get three weeks ago, insisted that he in- or some other tax. "It is not fair to say 1 together and agree on ways to reduce tended neither a political trap nor a gambit to force other taxes to be want to raise taxes to offset the Social the budget deficit, by cutting spending raised. He also strongly rejected the Security tax cut." or increasing some other tax. But even The Social Security system, he con- without that, he said, the Social Se- suggestion that he wanted to lower re- tinued, "edges on the sacred, and to see curity tax should be lowered. "If the tirement payments. its revenues debauched this way is an deficit is increased, that would be bad," At the White House today, President independent question that stands apart he said. "But if we have to go through a Bush repeated the charges his aides from the budget deficit, a tax increase small crisis to straighten things out, have been making for days. "It's an ef- or any other question." fine, let's do it." Mr. Moynihan observed that he had fort "to get me to raise taxes on the How It's Being Paid long supported an increased gasoline American people by the charade of cut- As of Jan. 1, workers and their em- ting them, or cut benefits," the Presi- ployers are each paying a 7.65 percent tax, but he said he would not stick his dent said of the Moynihan proposal, payroll tax, 6.2 percent for retirement neck out and suggest any tax increase now unless Mr. Bush did likewise. "and I'm not going to do it to the older under Social Security and 1.45 percent people of the country." for Medicare, the health insurance pro- The issue is being driven by partisan gram for the elderly and disabled. The politics. Senator Moynihan has embar- With both sides jockeying for politi- Social Security rate rose from 6.06 per- rassed Republicans by proposing a tax cal advantage, Vice President Quayle cent last year and the overall rate from cut. It is the same kind of proposal that also weighed in on what has become 7.51 percent. helped Republicans win the last three one of the hottest topics of an especially Presidential elections. The tax is paid on the first $51,300 of slow period in Washington. wages. The maximum tax this year is Help to All Workers Seen In an interview with The Associated $3,924.45. Mr. Moynihan said that a reduction Press, the Vice President said: "Let: Mr. Moynihan would repeal this in the Social Security tax would help all me tell you something. Cut these taxes; year's increase and reduce the Social workers, while the Bush plan to lower the way Moynihan is talking about, you! Security portion of the tax to 5.1 per- the capital gains tax rate would largely cent next year, saving workers and help the wealthy. their employers as much as $560 apiece. The rejoinder today from Mr. Bush and Mr. Quayle - that Mr. Moynihan's Social Security and Income Tax plan would lead to a cut in Social Se- He argued that in the Reagan and curity benefits - was similarly a move Bush years the Social Security tax had to capture a Democratic stronghold, been increased to balance a cut in in- the party's long-time advocacy of come taxes. That is "inequitable," he higher retirement payments. said, because the poor and the middle Mr. Moynihan maintains that the class are affected more by the Social money raised today through Social Se- Security tax and less by the income curity taxes affects future benefits tax. only indirectly. He said he planned Income taxes increase the more a nothing that would lower those bene- taxpayer earns from all sources. Social fits. Security taxes are paid at the same rate by all workers, they are assessed only on wages and not on interest, divi- dends or capital gains, and they are not paid at all on wages above $51,300. "We now have the most regressive tax system in the Western world," Mr. Moynihan said. Congress has been in recess since Mr. Moynihan offered his proposal just before New Year's Day. Democrats have reveled in the political discomfort it has caused President Bush and his Republican allies, but no Democrat has yet endorsed the Moynihan plan. The only support Mr. Moynihan has gained has come from a few conservative Re- publican lawmakers The view of most Democrats is that Mr. Moynihan should be applauded for underscoring the inequities of the tax WASH. POST 01-19-90 Bush: Moynihan Idea a "Charade' Social Security Plan Is Cover for Tax Increase, President Charges By Ann Devroy ing the buildup of a huge surplus to Quayle, in an interview with the Washington Post Staff Writer cover the retirement benefits of the Associated Press, called the Moyni- Baby Boom generation. The surplus han plan "a political trap, and once President Bush, leading the is being used to mask the real size people understand it, they won't fall charge against a Democratic pro- of the federal budget deficit and the for it." Referring to the Hollings posal to reduce Social Security New York senator argues that this plan, he said, "The cat's a little bit taxes, said yesterday the plan is a amounts to "thievery." out of the bag right now." "charade" aimed at getting him to Hollings proposed Wednesday The emerging debate over the raise income taxes or eventually enactment of a 5 percent value level of Social Security revenues reduce Social Security benefits. added tax (VAT), in effect a nation- and their use to mask the budget Bush, Vice President Quayle and al sales tax, to replace the revenues deficit was joined yesterday by a White House press secretary Mar- that would be lost by the Moynihan group of 11 leading economists, in- lin Fitzwater joined yesterday in pian and by Bush's proposal to re- cluding those who have served assailing both a tax increase plan duce taxes on capital gains. Democratic and Republican admin- unveiled Wednesday by Sen. Ernest Republicans yesterday gleefully istrations, who sharply criticized F. Hollings (D-S.C.) and last seized on the Hollings proposal as the Moynihan plan, saying it would month's call by Sen. Daniel Patrick proof that the Moynihan plan was a do "serious harm to the economy." Moynihan (D-N.Y.) for a cut in So- Democratic ploy to force a tax in- The group said the immediate ef- cial Security taxes. They linked the crease. Fitzwater, who called the fect of cutting $55 billion in payroll two proposals, arguing that they Moynihan plan a "wolf in sheep's taxes would be to worsen the fed- are both part of a Democratic clothing," said, "First we had the eral deficit, leading to an increase in scheme to force a general tax in- tax cut, now we have the tax in- interest rates and further erosion in crease. crease. Can cuts in [Social Security] growth of the economy. Moynihan in December an- benefits be far behind? Look out, The economists acknowledged nounced he will introduce legisla- older Americans." the proposal could be a "tactical tion when Congress returns next Bush, questioned about the device" aimed at focusing public week to roll back the Social Secu- Moynihan plan at a picture-session, attention on the "outrage" of using rity tax increase that took effect said, "This is an effort to get me to Social Security surpluses to reduce this year and another hike sched- try to raise taxes on the American the deficit level. But the result, uled to take effect Jan. 1, 1991. people by a charade of cutting they argued, could be a general tax The Moynihan plan would return them, or cutting benefits. And I am increase and a payroll tax cut but no the Social Security system to a pay- not going to do it to the older peo- effort to reduce federal spending. as-you-go system, instead of allow- ple in this country." "The best hope is that Sen. Moyni- han's proposal provokes a review of the nation's currently absurd budg- etary policies," the statement not- ed. "The worst fear is that it might actually be enacted." The statement was signed by economists that included Henry Aaron of the Brookings Institution; Nobel Prize winner James Tobin; Barry Bosworth, who served in the Carter administration; Alice Rivlin, former director of the Congression- al Budget Office; Charles Schultze, and Paul Samuelson. The White House finds itself in an awkward position, opposing a tax cut that has drawn support from its usual allies at the Chamber of Com- merce and the conservative think- tanks. But officials have settled on a strategy of attempting to portray the Moynihan plan as inevitably linked to a later tax increase, or to a reduction in benefits. WASH.POST:01-19-90 Charles Krauthammer Moynihan's frustration is understand- able, but it doesn't justify bomb-throwing. Moynihan's A Social Security tax cut is a very bed idea. Why? Don't listen to me. Listen to Daniel Patrick Moynihan: Writing as late 274A as May 1988, he reveled in the brilliance Gambit: of the tax hike he now wants to kill "In twelve days in January 1983," wrote Moynihan, "a half dozen people in A Terrible Washington put in place a revenue stream that is just beginning to flow and that, if we don't blow it, will put the Federal budget back in the black, pay off the Idea privately held Government debt, jump start the savings rate and guarantee the Social Security Trust Funds for-a half century and more." The '90s are three weeks old and we There is no better way to "blow it" already have a candidate for most irre- than to destroy the surplus. Moynihan's sponsible idea of the decade. The idea is tax cut would do exactly that. to cut Social Security taxes. The bomb- But Moynihan now claims that the thrower is Sen. Daniel Moynihan (D- Republicans blew it. He feels betrayed N.Y.). that the Republicans did not clean up the We are a country with a $3 trillion budget deficit but instead used the Social debt. Debt service alone claims one out of Security surplus to balance the books. every seven dollars in the federal budget. This he calls thievery. Our savings rate in the '80s was the lowest of any of the major industrial Today, that is. In 1988 he considered it countries (about a third of Japan's, for normal accounting. "This revenue stream instance). In such a country, talk of any must be deposited with the Treasury," he declared. Today he professes to be tax cut is irresponsible. Yet Moynihan shocked-shocked!-that the Treasury proposes one that he matter-of-factly ad- used it to shrink the deficit. mits will increase next year's deficit by $55 billion. Moynihan in 1988: "Our present deficit True, Social Security taxes are about 'path' takes us, in theory at least, to a the most unfair way to boost national zero deficit by 1993. If [his italics) that savings and keep the deficit down. A happens, the revenue stream from Social responsible politician, therefore, would Security will be sufficient to begin retiring propose (as this most responsible colum- debt by 1994." nist suggested 18 months ago) not to cut To begin retiring debt by 1994. So all but to shift taxes: to match a cut in Social along Moynihan expected that until 1994 Security taxes with an offsetting rise in the Social Security surplus would be used the more progressive income tax. That to shrink the current budget deficit. The way Joe Sixpack is relieved of some of the projected Social Security surplus in 1993 burden of balancing the budget while the is $99 billion. All along he was prepared budget itself is not further unbalanced. for $99 billion of the Social Security This Moynihan does not propose. Why? surplus to go toward offsetting the oper- I suspect it is partly out of anger and ating budget deficit-a prospect, he now frustration. He helped engineer the Social professes, that scandalizes him. Security tax hike of 1983. That increase Why was the original Social Security is generating a huge Social Security sur- tax increase such a good idea? Because, plus: $65 billion in 1990, going up to explained Moynihan in 1988, "our real $236 billion in the year 2000. That economic problem is that we don't save surplus, which Moynihan had hoped enough." That is as true today as it was in would be used to retire old debt, is 1988. Now, however, Moynihan launches instead being used to finance current a gratuitous proposal for a $55 billion deficit spending. annual dissaving. Moynihan's response: cut the tax, abol- Moynihan really doesn't want this to ish the surplus. This proposal is probably happen. He wants to keep his 1983 baby, meant as a ploy only. If you are going to have the operating budget balanced, have continue to live off my Social Security tax, his Social Security surplus retire all of our he is saying to George Bush, while dema- outstanding debt to the Japanese and goguing for a capital gains tax cut, I can others, and thus reclaim our economy and out-demagogue you. If you don't stop increase our productivity. Good idea. But talking about capital gains, if you don't he threatens the entire enterprise with balance the operating budget by cutting his shock treatment. spending or raising taxes, if you don't Shock treatment that makes no sense. begin using the Social Security surplus for He wants to balance the operating budget what it was intended (to pay off old debt) without Social Security. For that, a tax -then I'll cut $55 billion in taxes myself hike (or drastic spending cuts) is needed. and really wreck the budget. The idea that the way to get Republicans It is hard to believe that Moynihan to accept a tax hike is to threaten them actually wants this to happen. But ideas with a tax cut is bizarre. like this, particularly politically irresist- It is understandable that Democrats, ible ideas like tax cuts, have a life of having been whipsawed on the tax issue their own. Moynihan may not be able to for so long, now savor the chance for control his monster. some tax cutting demagoguery of their own. As one eager Democrat put it, "Ronald Reagan and George Bush have relieved the Democrats of any obligation to be responsible in fiscal matters." The Moynihan gambit embraces this newly WASH.POST:01-19-90 HAYNES JOHNSON Devilishly Clever at, that pixie, has turned the "trickle down" theory of economics P Washington political world upside favoring the rich over the poor. down. His proposal to cut the Stockman's dirty little secret, as Social Security payroll tax is the most imparted to Greider, was that supply-side ingenious, seductive and maybe doctrine "was always a Trojan Horse." destructive Machiavellian political Now, with exquisite irony, it is maneuver since the Reagan true Stockman's mentor, Moynihan, who has believers came to town preaching the employed tax-cut politics to confound the miracles of supply-side economics and conservatives and make them squirm. At the benefits of big tax cuts. Harvard University, where Moynihan In one brilliant move, Sen. Daniel then was teaching, young graduate Patrick Moynihan (D-N.Y.) has struck a student Stockman lived in Moynihan's welcome blow for honesty instead of home. "I have never known a man hypocrisy in government, shifted the capable of such sustained self-hypnotic political focus from favors for the few to ideological fervor," Moynihan later said those for the many, challenged every of his part-time baby sitter. "One day, he adult American to decide what he or arrives at Harvard preaching the she is willing to pay for and turned the infallibility of Ho Chi Minh. Next thing tables on the supply-side tax-cut you know he turns up in Washington theorists who held sway here with such proclaiming the immutability of the damaging effect on the country. Laffer Curve." You remember the supply-siders. Cut Moynihan also was first to charge that taxes, they proclaimed, and miracles the Reagan administration had will occur: Economic growth will soar, "consciously and deliberately brought tax revenues will actually increase, about" higher deficts as a means of inflation will decline and savings rates forcing congressional domestic-spending will rise. And all of this will be achieved cuts. At the time, Moynihan was without having to endure the painful, denounced for making such an assertion. politically unappealing process of Events proved him correct, with a slashing federal spending, enduring a vengeance. Cuts necessary to achieve wrenching recession or a combination balanced budgets were never made, of both. however. The deficit ballooned to even Theirs was a fail-safe, pain-free greater heights. formula for easy economic success and So, nine years later, comes a all so breathtakingly simple. Cutting Moynihan-led move that promises to oppressive top tax rates meant that reverberate through the politics of the people would have more money to '90s. Under his plan, ordinary taxpayers spend. Higher tax rates discouraged reap the greatest tax-cut benefits. By investment; lowering them encouraged contrast, under President Bush's it. Furthermore, they promised, the capital-gains tax-cut plan, the wealthy more taxes were cut, the more benefit most. economic activity would be generated. Moynihan's proposal is deceptively The greater the general prosperity, the simple and devilishly clever. greater the tax revenues for the Funds from the annually rising Social general good. Why, you could actually Security payroll taxes are being diverted reduce the national debt, increase to mask the real size of the federal deficit defense spending and balance the and sustain the operating costs of the budget within three years. Utopia. government. That's not the way it was Of course, it didn't turn out that way. supposed to work when Moynihan, The Reagan years did produce among others, helped to achieve economic growth, lowered inflation and bipartisan agreement on Social Security. a huge defense buildup-but at a price Those funds were intended to be of a severe recession in 1981-82, the preserved to pay Americans' retirement greatest deficits in the nation's history, benefits in the next century. Instead, sharply reduced savings rates and a they're being plundered by today's society so laden with debt that politicians. America's future has been mortgaged. Let's end the charade, Moynihan It turned out, too, that the famous argues. Cut back those payroll taxes and supply-side tax cuts were hardly as adopt a pay-as-you-go method for Social advertised. They represented a cynical Security. Critics fear that Moynihan's public deception. plan will wreck "the system." Some of us As Reagan's budget director, David A. who look back on the record of fiscal Stockman, later confessed to writer irresponsibility of the last decade think William Greider, the truth about supply that the system already is wrecked. It's side was nothing more than the old about time to start over. SENT BY:AARP COMMUNICATIONS : 1-17-90 1:37PM : 202+ 2024566218:# 1 Legislative Council MEETING. 29TH TALKING POINTS SENATOR MOYNIHAN'S PROPOSAL TO REDUCE PAYROLL TAXES BACKGROUND The 1983 Social Security Amendments called for increasing Social Security payroll tax (FICA) rates to assure the fiscal stability of the Old-Age Survivors and Disability Insurance Trust Funds for 75 years. The tax rates were raised in 1984, 1985, 1986 and 1990. The 1990 increase is the last scheduled raise in the rates. In a departure from past practice, these FICA tax rates were set at a level sufficient to prefund a portion of the retirement benefits of the "baby boom" generation. Senator Moynihan, one of the architects of the 1983 compromise, has now proposed rolling back the 1990 increase in the payroll tax (.14%) and then in 1991, "floating the tax rate--setting it a level to cover current benefits and a small contingency reserve. Essentially, current workers (dominated by the baby boom) would only pay sufficient taxes to cover current retirees and future generations would pay higher payroll taxes to cover retirement benefits for the baby boom. "The debate over this and similar proposals is not essentially about the well being of today's retirees. Rather, it is a debate how the Social Security promise will be honored in the future. The economic choices we make in the next few years may very well determine whether or not we will be able to keep these promises for the baby boom and beyond." This proposal raises a number of significant issues and concerns: 1. The Trust Funds do not even have a contingency reserve of one year at this time. The one year level is considered a minimum. AARP believes that up to two years reserves are necessary. The contingency reserve is need to ensure that the Social Security System can get through periods of economic slowdown or recession without crisis. SENT BY:AARP COMMUNICATIONS ; 1-17-90 1:38PM ; 202-> 2024566218:# 2 2. Senator Moynihan's major reason for proposing a rollback in the tax rates is that the Social Security trust fund buildup is being used to mask the true extent of the Federal deficit and to finance the deficit in the operating budget of the Federal government. These are legitimate concerns but the Moynihan issue. proposal goes well beyond simply dealing with this 3. AARP believe that gradually removing the Trust Funds from the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings (GRH) deficit calculation would action. expose the true dimensions of the deficit and spur positive 4. The reserve was designed to ensure benefits to future generations. It was seen as source of new national savings which would make the economy stronger and more productive in the future. 5. The reserve was also seen as a fairer way to ensure benefits to the baby boom. It is reasonable to ask the large baby boom generation to provide for a portion of its own retirement benefits since future working generations will be of much smaller numbers. 6. However, the reserve can only serve these beneficial functions if the rest of the Federal budget is in relative balance. Senator Moynihan's proposal is based on the premise that we cannot get our budget house in order and therefore, we should not make future promises based on the buildup of the reserve. Many believe that this determination is premature and that we should not give up on the reserve yet. 7. Floating the tax rate would give an immediate tax cut to workers and their employers. But, it may undermine further confidence in Social Security. Eliminating the buildup of the reserve in favor of raises taxes in the future to pay benefits could raise anxiety and lower confidence. Some fear that benefits to the baby boom would end up being reduced because there would be little willingness in the future to raise the payroll tax to the levels necessary to sustain the current benefit promise. 8. Giving a tax cut now could be seen as little more than a continuation of the trend of the last ten years of immediate gratification with the bills to be paid later. 9. However, this tax cut is not "free". The money ($50 billion or more in the first year of the floating tax rate) would have to be made up in other taxes or by increasing government indebtedness. 10. This proposal should be taken seriously and its effects carefully scrutinized. January 12, 1990 SELECTED PAST REMARKS BY SEN. MOYNIHAN ON SOCIAL SECURITY Moynihan on Social Security and the the Greenspan Commission: "If it ain't broke, don't fix it,' is a commonsensical caution for people not content to leave well enough alone. I propose a corollary, one particularly suited to any discussion of the Social Security system; 'If it's fixed don't break it! emphasis added]¹ "If we are to have another debate about changing the Social Security system, let us not lose sight of these facts: The program is secure; it is depended on; it is effective. The burden of proof falls upon those wishing to change things. "I submit to you that after 1985, social security will not contribute one cent to the Federal deficit -- in fact, it will be part of the solution. [The Social Security system is] "the most successful policy ever devised in our land. [The revenue stream resulting from the the Greenspan Commission's reforms] "will put the Federal budget back in the black, pay off the privately held government debt, jump start the savings rate and guarantee the Social Security Trust Funds for a half century and more [emphasis added]. 1 Congressional Record, 7-31-84, E3378 2 Congressional Record, 7-31-84, E3378 3 Congressional Record, 3-20-84, S2926. 4 "Moynihan Praises Social Security System," by Robin Greene, UPI, 12/31/88. 5 "Conspirators, Trillions, Limos in the Night," by Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan, New York Times, 5/23/88. (more) 2 Background On Moynihan And The Greenspan Commission As a member of the National Commission On Social Security Reform (The Greenspan Commission), which issued its report in January, 1983, Moynihan supported increases in the payroll tax that funds the retirement portion of the program -- increases to be phased-in over a seven year period. One of those increases, from 6.06 percent to 6.2 percent, just took place on January 1st. Moynihan seeks repeal of that increase, and a further cut in the rate to 5.1 percent by Jan. 1, 1991. In other words, Moynihan now wants to do away with the increases he favored in 1983. In fact, Moynihan wanted the tax increases to be even higher. In a supplementary statement to the Greenspan Commission's Report, signed by Moynihan and four other members', a proposal to further increase taxes read as follows: "For purposes of present legislation we would support putting in the law now an increase in the contribution rate beginning in 2010 of %.046 of payroll 118 After the Greenspan Commission submitted its report, Moynihan tried his additional tax increase in the Senate Finance Committee, which voted 15-2 against Moynihan's proposal. The Greenspan Commission unanimously recommended, in the words of the report, "that the Congress, in its deliberations on financing proposals, should not alter the fundamental structure of the Social Security program or undermine its 6 "Moynihan's Plan Makes Bush the Tax Ogre," by Donald Lambro, Washington Times, 1/11/90. 7 The four other members were Lane Kirkland, Claude Pepper, Robert M. Ball, and Martha Keys. There were 15 members total on the Commission. B Report of the National Commission on Social Security Reform, (Washington, 1983). "Social Security Rescue Plan Rushes to Final Hill Accord, " by Pamela Fessler and Elizabeth Wehr, Congressional Quarterly, 3/12/83. (more) 3 fundamental principles. The National Commission considered, but rejected, proposals to make the Social Security program a voluntary one, or to transform it into a program under which benefits are a product exclusively of the contributions paid, or to convert it into a fully-funded program, or to change it to a program under which benefits are conditioned on the showing of financial need. "[emphasis added]¹ Both houses of Congress, in a remarkable show of unity, swiftly enacted the Greenspan Commission's recommendations, including the seven year phased-in payroll tax increase. A typical lead was from Congressional Quarterly: "Setting partisanship aside, the full House and the Senate Finance Committee have given a Social Security rescue plan a quick push toward final passage. The vote in the House for the Greenspan reforms was 282-148, on March 9, 1983. 12 The Senate voted 58-14, on March 25th, 1983, with Moynihan voting Yea.¹³ ATTACHMENTS 10 Report of the National Commission on Social Security Reform (Washington, 1983) 11 "Social Security Rescue Plan Rushes to Final Hill Accord," by Pamela Fessler and Elizabeth Wehr, Congressional Quarterly, 3/12/83. 12 "Social Security Rescue Plan Rushes to Final Hill Accord," by Pamela Fessler and Elizabeth Wehr, Congressional Quarterly, 3/12/83. 13 1983 CQ Almanac; CQ Senate Vote 54 3378 CONGRESSIONAL RECORD Extensions of Remarks July 31, 1984 strategy for dealing with the Soviet Union. uitable balance in arms sales between the rity System in the future to meet the At very least, this strategy would require a U.S. and the allies. At present, the U.S. needs of today's young people. For 50 coordinated response by NATO members to enjoys a seven-to-one advantage in such major Soviet challenges around the world. years now, the American people have sales within NATO. The allies recognize Such a strategy was possible during the first NATO's need for advanced weaponry. but honored the social contract in which twenty years of the alliance's life, but de- they are afraid that a U.S. push for more of working people provide the financial tente in the last decade brought benefits to it will give American arms manufacturers an security for older Americans and Europe that were not shared by America. even larger share of NATO's markets. The income security for those disabled. Ir- Thus, most Europeans today believe that a cost of new weapons is high, and many Eu- responsible statements from President working relationship can be maintained ropeans doubt that they can afford them. Reagan or others are geared to under- with the Soviet Union, while most Ameri- NATO's conventional strategy is also un- cans still see the Soviet Union as an aggres- mine the Social Security Program and settled. Greater conventional strength sive power whose designs on Europe and based on advanced weaponry would decrease generational contract. The real risk to other regions must be resisted. This differ- NATO's reliance on nuclear weapons, but the Social Security Program comes ence in perception is dividing the alliance, also would enable NATO to strike deep into from the catastrophic events in our and ultimately may threaten its viability. Warsaw Pact territory. The possibility that economy which has been subjected to A second issue for NATO is how to ease new weaponry might cause NATO to shift the roller coaster ride of Reagan's economic tensions that are sapping the alli- to an offensive strategy is extremely trou- "voodoo economics!" There is no ance's strength. The U.S. is enjoying an eco- bling to many in Europe, particularly in nomic recovery that is faster than Europe's. sound reason to suggest that this Germany. European leaders argue that the U.S. recov- social contract will not be honored for These are the major issues that will domi- ery is taking place at Europe's expense, and nate NATO's deliberations during the future generations as well as current that high U.S. interest rates soak up money coming year. One of the important ways retirees. The universal nature of the that could be invested in Europe's recovery. that the U.S. can contribute to resolving Social Security System has been and The U.S. and Europe are also engaged in them is through arms control. Goodfaith ef- will continue to be the foundation of several trade disputes that have serious im- forts and meaningful negotiations with the the System's strength, both for plications for important economic sectors on Soviet Union can help close the rift between both sides of the Atlantic. The strength of today's and tomorrow's beneficiaries. American and European perceptions, and NATO depends on the combined economic can give our friends in Europe the political [From St. Paul (MN) Sunday Pioneer Press, strength of its members, and both the U.S. support that they need to make the case for July 15, 1984] and Europe will have to make future eco- increased defense spending and stronger SOCIAL SECURITY DEPENDABLE DON'T TAMPER nomic decisions in view of their impact on conventional forces. WITH IT Now the alliance. Other issues will surface, but If the alli- How NATO should react to the challenge "(By Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan) ance can handle these ft will continue to of events beyond the North Atlantic region "If ft ain't broke, don't fix it." is a com- provide an effective shield behind is a third issue. The U.S. position is that monsensical caution for people not content NATO should fashion a coordinated re- which the nations of the West can prosper. to leave well enough alone. I propose a cor- sponse to such events. Washington believes The allies still appreciate the importance of ollary. one particularly suited to any discus- that NATO has a duty to act when its secu- NATO. So do many Americans. All parties, sion of the Social Security system; "If it's rity is at stake, and that European members however, must be willing to accept the re- fixed, don't break It!" should be ready to replace U.S. forces that sponsibilities and sacrifices necessary to On Jan. 15, 1983. the National Commis- might be moved from Europe tn an emer- keep the alliance healthy.e sion on Social Security Reform. on which I gency. The Europeans, however, are not served, agreed to a set of recommendations keen on replacing U.S. troops, and they are SOCIAL SECURITY DEPENDABLE to put Social Security on a firm financial especially reluctant to ready their own footing. troops for combat abroad. They point out HON. BRUCE F. VENTO Our proposals became law three months that U.S. and European interests may not later. and my optimism about their effica- coincide outside Europe. that some nations OF MINNESOTA cy-expressed at the time-remains. On cannot legally use armed force outside their IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES' April 5 of this year. Donald T. Regan. treas- borders, and that Europe no longer has the ury secretary, Raymond J. Donovan, labor resources necessary to project military force Tuesday, July 31, 1984 secretary. and Margaret M. Heckler. health to distant points. Mr. VENTO. Mr. Speaker, recently and human services secretary-the trustees A final issue before NATO is how to im- an article by Senator DANIEL PATRICK of the Social Security funds-reported that prove its conventional military strength. MOYNIHAN concerning the current the benefits provided "under these pro- This is a pressing concern because there is status of our Social Security System grams can be paid well into the next centu- doubt whether NATO could counter an in- vasion by the Warsaw Pact without early, and its outlook for the future was pub- ry." During the commission's deliberations, and probably cataclysmic, use of nuclear lished in the St. Paul Sunday Pioneer Alan Greenspan, our chairman and former weapons. The Europeans know that their Press (July 15). Senator MOYNIHAN, chairman of the president's Council of Eco- own homelands would be the first areas dev- who served as a member of the Nation- nomic Advisors, imposed a simple but cru- astated in a nuclear exchange, so they and al Commission on Social Security cial rule: Members were entitled to their the U.S. have agreed on the need to upgrade Reform. observes that Congress' pas- own opinions, but not to their own facts. In conventional forces. There is disagreement, sage of the Social Security Act Amend- deference to our chairman's rule, herewith however, on the allocation of expense. The ments of 1983 insured the future sta- some facts: U.S. wants its allies to increase their defense bility of our Nation's basic social in- By next year. the revenues from Social Se- budgets 3 percent annually, just as they said curity taxes will match the costs of Social that they would do in 1978. The allies say surance program and notes that the Security benefits. Indeed, we now expect that they will do their best to increase de- Social Security Program has helped revenue surpluses to begin in 1986 and fense spending, but contend that their eco- millions of older Americans avoid build, according to Social Security's actuar- nomic troubles may keep them from reach- living in poverty. Senator MOYNIHAN'S ies, to $13.4 trillion by 2025 and $18.4 tril- ing the original goal. reasoned observations are especially lion in 2045. Unless the economy takes a How the burden of a stronger convention- timely in light of the recent remarks sudden nosedive and sharply erodes Social al defense should be shared is in fact one of NATO's knottiest problems. The U.S. by President Reagan suggesting that Security revenues within the next few spends more of its gross domestic product young people will never be able to re- years, the retirement and disability funding problems would seem to be behind us. (6.5 percent in 1982) on defense than do its ceive as much from this system as The universal social insurance system es- NATO allies T3.7 percent in 1982), and in they are paying into it and that fur- tablished in 1935 is central to the way we 1983 the U.S. increased its defense spending ther (although unspecified) changes plan our lives. by 7.6 percent while the allies raised theirs may be necessary. Social Security is an undeniable success. by only 2 percent. For their part, the allies President Reagan's comments are a The system has helped reduce poverty dra- point out that during the 1970s they in- disservice to the Nation and only serve matically among the nation's elderly. In creased their defense spending by 2 percent annually while U.S. military outlays fell by to exacerbate unfounded fears and 1937, three years before the first check was anxieties among young workers and distributed, two-thirds of all Americans 65 1 percent per year. They note as well that older Americans. The President's years or older had no means of- support they get more value for each dollar because except help from friends and relatives or their conscripted forces cost less than Amer- statements and responses mislead private charities. Today, more than 85 per- ica's volunteer force. Burden-sharing also young people when he suggests that cent of all elderly citizens have incomes involves NATO's commitment to & more eq. there will not be a strong Social Secu- above the national proverty line. July 31, 1984 CONGRESSIONAL RECORD Extensions of Remarks E 3379 If we are to have another debate about (which would not change the benefit struc- Mr. Speaker, this initiative to changing the Social Security system, let us ture) "would add significantly to the public strengthen mathematics and science not lose sight of these facts: The program is understanding of the trustee character of secure; it is depended on; it is effective. The education in this country is long over- Social Security as a retirement and group burden of proof falls upon those wishing to insurance plan." due. Deficiencies in math and science change things. Social Security has been a fixture in the curricula and equipment have serious President Ronald Reagan recently re- United States for nearly a half-century. Yet injured the morale of this country's marked (once again!): "There is a possibili- after all this time and success, some are not teachers and the capabilities of our ty-well, probability-that many people, reconciled to it. This is unfortunate. But it students. The National Science Foun- young people now paying in, will never be is a minority view, and it doesn't change the able to receive as much as they're paying." dation [NSF] has reported that math facts. Social Security is fixed in more ways In response, James M. Brown, a spokesman than one. Don't break it. and science teachers have had serious for the Social Security Administration, said [Senator Moynihan, of New York, is the difficulty in obtaining information that Social Security "is not just a retire- ranking Democrat on the Senate Finance concerning new instructional materi- ment benefit. You are buying a package Committee's Social Security and income that also includes protection against disabil- als, thereby hampering the Nation's maintenance programs subcommittee.-The ity and death. Nobody else offers a package efforts to improve curriculum. Addi- Los Angeles Times] like that," The president sometimes seems tionally, the National Association of genuinely to misunderstand the system. Secondary School Principals has re- Few amoung us know what our financial IN MEMORY OF FORMER CON- ported that only 45 percent of all sec- condition will be in the future, and it is only GRESSMAN CHARLIE WILSON ondary schools possess some sort of wise to eliminate fear of economic calamity by making regular, and relatively small, pre- science equipment. These are disturb- mium payments throughout our working HON. WILLIAM (BILL) CLAY ing facts demonstrating serious, wide- lives. OF MISSOURI spread problems in our country's abili- At its inception in 1935, Social Security IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ty to educate our children. provides benefits only for retirees, but eligi- bility has since been broadened. In 1939 Fortunately, H.R. 1310 defines im- Tuesday, July 31, 1984 before the first benefit was paid, retirees' mediate Federal, State, and local roles dependents and survivors were accepted as Mr. CLAY. Mr. Speaker, a former for improving math and science educa- beneficiaries. And under President Dwight colleague, Charles Wilson, passed tion and teacher preparation. The bill Eisenhower in 1956, permanently and total- away Saturday. July 21, 1984. I insert provides incentives to encourage ly disabled workers began receiving Social my message to his lovely wife, Bok, as future generations of teachers to enter Security checks. Today, some 25 million re- a lasting tribute to a true friend: tired workers, almost 4 million disabled these fields, and to help improve the DEAR Box: You are not alone. All of Char- workers. and more than 7 million survivors skills of current teachers. Additional- lie's many friends share his loss with you. receive Social Security benefits. As with other types of insurance, of Carol and I count ourselves among his clos- ly, the problems of student prepara- est friends. tion and achievement are addressed by course, the lucky ones are those who do not At a time like this, words are not adequate authorizing educational agencies and need to collect. But it is nice to know it is there. to convey the pain and emptiness we feel. institutions to develop methods to im- There is no little antagonism to the com- Even constrained by our limited power of prove, strengthen, expand, and mod- pulsory nature of Social Security. However, expression, we are compelled to verbalize ernize math and science education. the system is trustworthy only if it's univer- the deep hurt we share with you-the loss sal. If given the chance, how many people of our dear and longtime friend, Charlie. Moreover, H.R. 1310 addresses the would have the time, knowledge, and, above True friends are a rarity, Charlie was our serious problems of underrepresenta- all. capital to provide securely for the true friend. When he laughed, we laughed. tion of women and minorities in these future? And what of those who would try When he cried, we cried. When he rejoiced, disciplines by -requiring grant recipi- but fail? Stock go down sometimes, right? we rejoiced. When he hurt, we hurt. When ents to take concrete action to ensure The plain fact is that Social Security he died, a part of all mankind died. means that older persons in America do not Ernest Hemingway put it best when he equal educational opportunity. I wrote: "For Whom the Bell Tolls." He said, strongly support this provision and depend on their children for support. This is a blessing beyond words. Not to the chil- "No man is an island, entire of itself; every salute the committee's continued ef- dren, but to the parents who know they man is a piece of the continent, a part of forts to improve opportunities for all never will be a burden to the dearest per- the main: if a clod be washed away by the Americans. sons in their lives. sea, Europe is the less, as well as if a prom- Recently. Treasury Secretary Regan said ontory were. as well as if a manor of thy Mr. Speaker, in considering the bill the practice of paying benefits to those at friends or of thine own were; any man's before us today, however, I am con- the "upper end" of the economic scale death diminishes me, because I am involved cerned over one amendment added by should be re-examined. Well, why should in mankind: and therefore never seem to the other body to provide funding for well-off Americans receive an income sup- know for whom the bell tolls; it tolls for magnet schools which are part of an plement? Because depriving them of the thee." approved desegregation plan. My res- benefits for which they have paid under- A longtime family commitment forced Carol and I to be in Connecticut, and we will ervations about supporting this mines the insurance principle of Social Se- curity. be unable to see you for the next few days, amendment stem from its heavy bias Would it be right or prudent to tell those however, we will call you when we return so toward the larger school districts, whose homes burn down that they cannot that we can get together. while appearing to shun the smaller collect fire insurance because they have re- Sincerely, but equally needy districts. I under- sources sufficient to cover the losses? Of BILL AND CAROL CLAY.O stand from the colloquy on this course not. Just so with Social Security. Once we end the universal nature of the debate, however, that the eligibility system. we inevitably weaken the universal SECTIONS 1 THROUGH 7 OF H.R. criteria set forth in the amendment do nature of its political support. 1310 not preclude those smaller desegregat- Certainly, there are administrative ing districts, and therefore I withdraw changes that can improve Social Security SPEECH OF my reservations. Further I would hope Administration operations. Our commission recommended, and Congress approved, ap- HON. SILVIO O. CONTE that, this being the case, the Secretary pointment by the president of two members will give close consideration to the OF MASSACHUSETTS of the public to the Social Security Board of needs of those smaller districts when IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES Trustees. We can enhance public confidence considering awards under this pro- in the system by increasing public involve- Wednesday, July 25, 1984 gram.o ment in its oversight. But these appoint- ments have not been made. Mr. CONTE. Mr. Speaker, I am glad It has been suggested that the agency be to see that H.R. 1310, the math and made an independent body (it is now within science education bill. has returned to the Department of Health and Human Serv- this floor for our consideration. And I ices). I agree with Robert Ball, the agency's am pleased to rise in support of this former commissioner, who said this step important measure. S 2926 CONGRESSIONAL RECORD - SENATE March 20, 1984 others. I am proud to have the oppor- At a time when it has become fashion- er Congress' brave decision to go beyond the tunity today to commend Mr. Michael able to advocate cuts to run-away enti- commission's recommendations and phase Bongiovanni. tlement programs in order to reduce in a delay in the retirement age makes it the deficit, we must recognize precise- less likely that drastic changes will then be ly how, or if, entitlement programs are needed. In the meantime. building up enor- SOCIAL SECURITY mous reserves in the trust funds-which contributing to the deficit. I submit to would offset deficits in other parts of the Mr. MOYNIHAN. Mr. President, 1 you that after 1985, social security will budget-would only discourage needed year ago, the Senate began its consid- not contribute 1 cent to the Federal budget discipline. eration of H.R. 1900, the Social Secu- deficit-in fact, it will be part of the There is no way to put a system as big and rity Act Amendments of 1983. At this solution. important as Social Security on automatic benchmark, it is instructive to reflect I hope that my colleagues will take pilot for all time. But there is no sense in on the reform legislation enacted last the time to review these articles. sounding a general alarm while sailing in April. There is no way to guarantee that untroubled waters. I call my colleagues' attention to the social security will never need addi- recent report by the Committee for tional financing changes. But as the [From the Washington Post, Feb. 10. 1984] Economic Development, entitled Post editorial concludes, "there is no SOCIAL SECURITY Is IN GOOD SHAPE "Social Security: From Crisis to sense in sounding a general alarm (By Robert M. Ball and Robert J. Myers) Crisis?" CED, a private nonprofit, non- while sailing in untroubled waters." Hobart Rowen ["Social Security: It's Not partisan organization of business ex- Mr. President, I request unanimous So Secure." op-ed, Feb. 16] asserts that the ecutives, has suggested that the 1983 consent that the following articles Social Security system is once again likely amendments to the Social Security from the Washington Post, "Social Se- to run into financial difficulties despite the Act "provide very little margin of curity False Alarm" and "Social Secu- reform legislation enacted last April. A large part of his conclusion is drawn from the safety." It contends that, should eco- rity is in Good Shape" appear in the recent report by the Committee for Eco- nomic and demographic trends be less RECORD. nomic Development entitled "Social Secu- favorable than assumed in the 1983 The articles follow: rity: From Crisis to Crisis?" amendments, the system could face [From The Washington Post, Feb. 25, 1984] We disagree strongly with Rowen's con- another financial crisis in this decade. SOCIAL SECURITY FALSE ALARM clusions. We refer only to the Social Secu- The economic assumptions on which Less than a year ago Congress enacted a rity program (Old-Age, Survivors and Dis- Congress relied for these amendments, bipartisan reform program to put the Social ability Insurance-OASDI) and not to the it is claimed, "fail to cover a realistic Security retirement system on sound foot- Hospital Insurance portion of the Medicare range of possibilities" with respect to ing for the foreseeable future. Now comes a program. The National Commission on actual economic performance. report from the Committee on Economic Social Security Reform recognized, and we This simply is not the case. The Na- Development, a national business policy agree, that under present law Hospital In- group, warning that Social Security may be surance has a serious financing problem tional Commission on Social Security in trouble before the end-of the decade. some five or more years from now. It was Reform, on which I served, based its Before you pick up your pen to dash off a not the assignment of the national commis- recommendations on economic as- worried letter to the president or Congress, sion to deal with this problem. but rather sumptions generally considered to be you should know that the CED's report is with the more immediate problem of the quite cautious. The intermediate as- not based on any new analysis or insight. Social Security programs. The projections it cites are taken from last Rowen claims that eventually Social Secu- sumptions were thought by some to be year's report of the Social Security Trust- rity and other entitlement programs will re- less favorable than our best estimates ees, and are essentially the same as those quire further changes for two reasons: first, would have suggested, but we were used by Congress and the bipartisan Social "to keep them financially healthy and, wary of the perils of over optimism. Security commission in framing the reforms second, to help cut the dangerous federal I submit for your attention, then, an put into law last March. True. things have deficits." We believe that it is highly prob- editorial which appeared in the Wash- changed somewhat since that time-but not able that the Social Security system will be ington Post on February 25, entitled in the way that the CED's report would sug- financially healthy over at least the next "Social Security False Alarm," and a gest. They've gotten better. two decades. For the period 20 to 75 years letter to the editor of the Washington The important thing to remember about after that for which estimates are tradition- last year's reforms is that, for once, they ally made, we believe the estimates underly- Post written by Robert M. Ball and were not based on a rosy view of the future. ing the financing of the program are reason- Robert J. Myers. These two pieces give The reform package was designed to see the able and even somewhat on the conservative an accurate first year report card on Social Security trust funds through this side. the Social Security Amendments of decade under a very pessimistic economic As to Rowen's second point, the Social Se- 1983, one that ought to be considered forecast-unemployment remaining above curity program, which will be part of the by all. 10 percent until 1985 and not dipping below unified budget until 1992, will not be a cause Mr. Ball, the distinguished former 8 percent until almost the end of the of the deficit, but rather will be part of its Commissioner of Social Security and a decade, and wages barely outpacing infla- solution. This is so because, under any rea- tion. sonable assumptions, income to the self-fi- member of the National Commission, Of course, the economy is already much nanced OASDI trust funds will exceed and Mr. Myers, the highly respected better than that. And, as the Congressional outgo during the near-future years and for a former Chief Actuary and Deputy Budget Office's new projections show, even couple of decades. thereafter. It would not Commissioner of Social Security who if the economy heads back into a recession a seem reasonable to further help reduce the served as executive director of the year or so from now, the trust funds should general federal deficits by cuts in the Social Commission write that the economic have sufficient reserves to make it through Security program which, in itself, is in a assumptions used by the National the tightest period before legislated tax in- state of positive fiscal balance. Commission were- creases begin to build up the funds later in The CED report leaves the implication the decade. And, if economic conditions (which Rowen latches on to) that, if eco- Slightly on the pessimistic side (and cur- become very bad, the law now contains a nomic conditions are only slightly worse rently economic conditions are more favora- safeguard that keeps benefit cost-of-living than the intermediate assumptions, the ble. Moreover, even under the pessimistic adjustments from outpacing wages when system will be insolvent before the end of assumptions, the financing of the system trust fund reserves are low. the 1980s. This is not correct, because the will be reasonably adequate in the 1980's, Beyond this decade, it's important to re- intermediate assumptions are, we believe, and it would take much more than a small member, the retirement trust fund is slightly on the pessimistic side (and current- unfavorable wiggle in basic trends to pro- headed toward a period of surpluses. That's ly economic conditions are more favorable). duce a financial crisis. because the generation that will be retiring Moreover, even under the pessimistic as- Mr. Ball and Mr. Myers make a in the mid-1990s was born in the low-birth- sumptions, the financing of the system will second point of considerable impor- rate years of the Depression, while the be reasonably adequate in the 1980s, and it tance: labor force, which pays Social Security would take much more than "a small unfa- taxes, will still be swollen by the baby-boom vorable wiggle in basic trends" to produce a The social security program, which will be generation. financial crisis. part of the unified budget until 1992, will Sometime in the next century, when the This is not to say that there is no possible not be a part of the deficit, but rather will baby-boomers reach retirement, the surplus- scenario that would cause the Social Secu- be part of its solution. es will disappear, as the CED warns. Howev- rity system to have short-term financing March 20, 1984 CONGRESSIONAL RECORD SENATE S 2927 problems. What It would take is something I have introduced legislation to pro- making an important contribution to like double-digit unemployment. with wages vide a Federal matching grant pro- rising no more rapidly than prices. This we marine resource management through believe to be very improbable. gram for computer education and research and field services designed to Even under the pessimistic assumptions of teacher training. I think that comput- promote the development, use, and the 1983 Trustees Report, the OASDI trust er education can serve to enhance the conservation of ocean and coastal re- funds would have a balance of at least two teaching of more traditional academic sources. month's outgo at all times in the 1980s. and intellectual skills. Putting comput- By designating the "Year of the while under the intermediate assumptions ers in classrooms will not be a solution Ocean" Congress can renew its com- this ratio would, desirably. build up and for the problems in education. Howev- mitment to addressing the problems would amount to about five months' outgo er, with careful planning, computers which threaten the ocean and coastal at the beginning of 1990, and increase rapid- ly thereafter. can provide a new tool for teaching zone. Passage of this resolution can We see no reason to make changes in the writing, mathematics, social studies, enhance public awareness of our tre- benefit structure in order to provide an even and other courses, and analytical mendous reliance upon marine re- wider margin of safety than now exists skills. sources, as well as the consequences of Reauthorization of the Vocational failing to manage them wisely. Education Act must be a top priority The ocean is essential to the life of STRENGTHENING AMERICAN for 1984. Solid vocational training is the world. The "Year of the Ocean" EDUCATION important in preparing students for program can help us to focus on its im- Mr. LAUTENBERG. Mr. President, productive careers. portance in each of our lives. I hope few issues have more importance to Another major unfinished item on my colleagues will join in supporting the future of our country than educa- the education agenda is legislation to the passage of this resolution and pro- tion. Our ability to compete in the in- improve math and science education. moting its observance. ternational economy in years to come, The House of Representatives passed our ability to continue as a nation of a math and science bill last spring, but opportunity for all, and to advance to- the Senate has not yet scheduled con- HONORING JACK DEMPSEY gether as a nation, is dependent on the sideration of its version of the bill. Mr. D'AMATO. Mr. President, I rise education provided our young people. The present unhappy state of to ask this body to honor one of Recent reports from the Commission American education has not developed America's greatest sports legends, the on Excellence on Education and overnight, nor will it be improved im- late Jack Dempsey. A legend in the others highlight existing weaknesses mediately. But there must be a starting boxing ring as well as in everyday life, in our educational programs. Indeed, point on the road to recovery. the National Commission on Excel- We must not fail our children by re- Jack Dempsey's rise to heavyweight champion made him an example of lence in Education has likened the sit- fusing to heed the harsh message of the American spirit throughout the uation in American education today to the Nation at Risk report. We owe "Golden Age of Sports," the 1920's. unthinking, unilateral education them the bright promise of a good education. We owe their teachers our Like other legendary sports figures disarmament. strong support. And we owe the of that era, such as Babe Ruth, Bobby If such an incident had been leveled Nation an adequate investment in our Jones, and Johnny Weissmuller, Jack at the defense establishment in this educational system If we hope to pros- Dempsey's style and accomplishments country, the cries of dismay from the White House and the Congress would per and maintain U.S. leadership in in his sport were revolutionary. Demp- the world economy sey's aggressive "bob and weave" style have been loud and instantaneous. ended the era of standup defensive Reaction to the harsh assessment of style boxing forever and turned boxing the Education Commission has been YEAR OF THE OCEAN into a top drawing spéctator sport. more temperate. Nevertheless. Mr. Mr. CHAFEE. Mr. President. the Winning the heavyweight crown for President, I, for one. must express my ocean environment remains one of our the first time in 1919, Dempsey re- deep chargin over the state into which country's most precious natural trea- tained the title until 1926. But his loss our educational system has fallen. As sures. In order to encourage better un- did not affect his popularity with the the Commission on Excellence report derstanding and appreciation of the American public. Jack Dempsey re- rightly notes. citizens look to educa- need to preserve ocean and coastal re- mained a hero because he found suc- tors and elected officials to provide sources, I am pleased to join Senator cess in his failures, an accomplishment leadership to reverse educational STEVENS as a cosponsor of Senate Joint endearing to many people who viewed trends in our country. Resolution 257. designating the 12- Dempsey's rise to champion as repre- Providing more money for education month period beginning July 1, 1984, sentative of the everyday battles of is by no means the only answer to dif- as the "Year of the Ocean." most ordinary Americans. ficulties in education today. However, I represent the Ocean State. The sea His life before becoming champion approval of increased educational ex- figures prominently in Rhode Island's also adds to the legend his name car- penditures can give encouragement to heritage. Narragansett Bay remains ries. The son of an impoverished Mid- educators doing their best under diffi- our preeminent natural, commercial, western family. a miner at 13, a veter- cult circumstances in the Nation's and recreational resource. Rhode Is- an of hobo jungles at 19, and classrooms. It can provide increased landers cherish the ocean for its heavyweight champion of the world at resources for existing programs that beauty. for its rich abundance of 24, Jack Dempsey's struggle is a true have proved their effectiveness. It can marine life. and for what it contrib- symbol of the American dream. help initiate new programs. utes to our State's economy. His legend is further supported by This year I have been working in the Rhode Islanders are also keenly his unfailing kindness outside of the Senate as part of a special working aware of the fragility of delicate ocean ring. From his restaurant on Broad- group on education set up by Minority and coastal habitats. The problems way, Jack Dempsey played the role of Leader ROBERT BYRD. Our group will posed by pollution, waste disposal, host to the city of New York, as well be seeking a consensus on the appro- coastal development. and energy ex- as of a gentle, charitable man, always priate spending levels for education in ploration constantly threaten the willing to help the unfortunate and the fiscal year 1985 budget. After al- ocean environment and require action the needy. lowing for inflation, the President's to preserve marine resources. Touted as the greatest fighter of the budget request is about $5 billion As we continue to exploit the wealth half century in 1950 and inducted into below what education spending was 4 of the ocean, it is our responsibility to the Boxing Hall of Fame in 1954, Jack years ago. While we may not be able to plan now for the prudent management Dempsey is still remembered as one of make up this entire shortfall. I cer- of the marine environment. The Uni- the greatest fighters of all time. But tainly think an increase over the versity of Rhode Island's distinguished his legend is incomplete without men- President's proposed budget is needed. Graduate School of Oceanography is tion of his kindness out of the boxing Services of Mead Data Central PAGE 7 6TH STORY of Level 1 printed in FULL format. Proprietary to the United Press International 1988 December 31, 1988, Saturday, BC cycle SECTION: Washington News LENGTH: 313 words HEADLINE: Moynihan praises Social Security system BYLINE: By ROBIN GREENE DATELINE: WASHINGTON KEYWORD: Reagan-Dems BODY: Sen. Patrick Moynihan, D-N.Y., praised the Social Security system Saturday as ''the most successful policy ever devised in our land'' and then made a New Year plea on behalf of needy children in the United States. Moynihan, who delivered the Democratic response to President Reagan's weekly radio address, got off an optimistic note by asking Americans to join him in ''a special wish for President and Mrs. Reagan.' The New York senator noted that he and the president had been sparring with each other for the past eight years, saying ''they've been fair fights from first to last'' and admitting, ''I'm going to miss them. 'Our first go-round had to do with Social Security,'' Moynihan said in praising the entitlement program. ''Without Social Security, almost half of the elderly would be poor today,' he said. ''With Social Security, Medicare and other government programs, the number of elderly poor has all but disappeared. 'Social Security is the most successful policy ever divised in our land,' Moynihan said. Citing a Census Bureau study released last week, Moynihan said: ''I wish I could report that the ... study concluded the same for children. It did not. ... Government benefit programs hardly touch child poverty.' Moynihan said the study showed that ''there are two kinds of children in America and they live in two kind of families. The senator said children who live in two parent families will never be poor while children in single-parent families ''will almost always be poor sooner or later. 'Their numbers are staggering,'' Moynihan said. ''As many as one-third of our children live this way today. We've become the first industrial nation on earth in which children are the worst-off group.' Calling child poverty ''the great challenge before us,'' Moynihan said: ''If we get to work, it will really be a happy New Year.' so/v4/Conspirators, Trillions, Limos in the Night tunity as peril, he went on: floor. If he was as optimistic as his ar- And President Reagan was not going By Daniel Patrick Moynihan "Social Security is a case in point. ticle suggested, shouldn't we make to do anything to prevent it. With 116 million workers supporting one last try? Two days later, he and I And so we would. Until then, Social WASHINGTON it and 36 million beneficiaries relying and Representative Barber B. Cona- Security had been on a pay-as-you-go It all started his appears to be the ble Jr. were secreted out to White basis, with a little cushion to take N.Y.TIMES:05-23-88 on it, Social Security overwhelms House chief of staff James A. Baker with a Dole T season for disclosing every other domestic priority. care of economic downturns. We Washington secrets, Through a combination of relatively 3d's house in northwest Washington. could have fluffed up that cushion and and I don't see why modest steps, including some accel- Negotiations began. let it go at that. We decided instead on article. only Republicans eration of already scheduled taxes In time, we shifted our talks to a radical change in policy. Hence- should be able to play. and some reduction in the rate of fu- Blair House (which was empty, owing forth, we would collect and save for I've got a pretty good one. Secret ture benefit increases, the system to the chandelier incident), and on the. the far future, and not just the next messages concealed on the Op-Ed can be saved. When it is, much of the night of Saturday, Jan. 15, we reached year. An immense reserve would be- page of The New York Times. Whis- credit, rightfully, will belong to this agreement on arrangements to save gin to accumulate before beginning to 1994. As public debt declines, national savings increase. pered conversations on the Senate President and his party." the system, which were promptly en- run down about 2030. In the process, floor. White House limos hurtling Oh? Not 24 hours earlier the budget dorsed by the commission and the we would pay off the national debt. By 2010 the Social Security reserve through the wintry night to a house in director, David A. Stockman, had President. We have now had four full calendar is projected to be nearly $4.5 trillion. northwest Washington. A bedroom foretold that the "most devastating Most of this story is now familiar. years of the new revenue base. The ($4,460,600,000,0001) If we wanted to yup - on the second floor of the bankruptcy in history," that of the So- Here is what is not generally under- trustees have just reported, and I go all the way, we could probably President's guest house, where nights cial Security Trust Funds, was only stood. Almost everyone Involved have just had the first oversight hear- have zero national debt by that time. earlier a visiting potentate would months away. Which wasn't so, but a knew - by then - that the Adminis- ing. Here are the numbers. The Social For the first time, incidentally, since have been skewered by a plunging lot of people believed him. What the tration had got the nation's finances Security Trust Funds are increasing 1836- when we were down to $38,000. chandelier had he not been mysteri- columnist Sylvia Porter called "a in terrible shape. Mr. Stockman, who at the rate of $109,440,000 per day and We could of course blow the oppor- ously otherwise engaged at the scare campaign of vicious propor- joined our deliberations, has written rising. tunity. We could start to "spend" the Watergate. tions" had been going on. The new about this in great detail. There The current reserve is approaching Social Security surplus rather than Huddled conspirators. Big bucks. breed of conservatives seemed to de- would be $200 billion budget deficits $100 billion. Between now and the using it to retire debt, and so get rid of Like, maybe, trillions? test the program even more than the "as far as the eye could see." The na- year 2000 it will grow to $1.4 trillion. the deficit. (Which for practical pur- Trouble is it was really on the up old breed. And the funds were going tional debt would triple in eight years. (As of 1987, the entire assets of pri- poses now consists almost entirely of and up. And has a happy ending. So I down, the result of an interval vate pension funds were about $1.49 debt service.) But surely we should don't suppose it would sell, and I in the 1970's when prices ran ahead of billion.) This revenue stream must be "save" it, and thus put aside the fist might as well come out with it here wages so that cost-of-living adjust- deposited with the Treasury. If at the cal mess of the 80's. and now. ments were not being offset end of the day the Treasury has more Our real economic problem is that by increased payments into the A true In brief, in 12 days in January 1983, money on hand than it needs, it sim- we don't save enough. Of 24 members a half dozen people in Washington put funds. ply retires privately held of the Organization for Economic in place a revenue stream that is just A year or so earlier, the Senate ma- inside debt. Cooperation and Development, we beginning to flow and that, if we don't jority leader, Howard H. Baker Jr., This can sound arcane but isn't. rank 20th, followed by Iceland, and a blow it, will put the Federal budget had put together a bipartisan Na- story Every week some millions of Treas- few such. Yet, as one witness at our back in the black, pay off the pri- tional Commission on Social Security ury bonds and bills "mature" and are oversight hearings put it, by the next vately held Government debt, jump Reform. Mr. Dole and I were appoint- revealed by cashed in. At present, the Treasury decade we could be "awash in capt tal." This is the one sure way - sav- start the savings rate and guarantee ed. Alan Greenspan was made chair- "rolls over" the debt, issuing new the Social Security Trust Funds for a man. Months went by with no appar- the Senator bonds or bills to get the cash to pay ing and investment to make cer- half century and more. ent movement from either side. Then, off the old ones. But if it isn't short of tain the Social Security funds are still It all began on a Monday morning, suddenly, this signal from Mr. Dole. Who Knows! cash it needn't do this. The national ample when the baby boom retirees. Jan. 3. Bob Dole of Kansas had an Op- He and Mr. Greenspan had come to debt begins to shrink. One further point. In the near term, Ed article that Insisted that things understand that the system's prob- Our present deficit "path" takes us, the proportion of retired persons in would soon be looking up for the Ad- lems really were temporary and that in theory at least, to a zero deficit by the population will be quite stable: ministration - there was a near-de- in the long term it could be made he- 1993. If that happens, the revenue the depression bables. Today, there pression on - and that Congressional roically solvent. stream from Social Security will be are 21 persons retired for every 100 of Republicans were behind him. Noth- On the day I was sworn in for a sec- sufficient to begin retiring debt by working age. This ratio stays flat ing special, save for one paragraph. ond term, I went over to Mr. Dole, through 2010. Claims on the funds will Having said that the issues confront- who happened to be on the Senate be steady. There you have it. Hard to believe? ing them presented as much oppor- Yes. But within our grasp. Daniel Patrick Moynihan, Democrat All done in 12 days in January. of New York, is chairman of the Sen- ate Finance Committee's subcommi- lee on Social Security and Family Policy. Moynihan's plan makes Bush the tax ogre By Donald Lambro ers. from some of his traditional sup- ]/1]/90 class Americans are clearly over- THE WASHINGTON TIMES The proposal by New York Sen. porters. taxed." Daniel Patrick Moynihan, which "This is a very dumb thing for the There were even some within the A Democratic proposal to reduce would cut the payroll tax by more [administration] to be doing," said Social Security taxes is winning administration, such as Housing and than a percentage point, has Kate O'Beirne, deputy director for Urban Development Secretary Jack cheers from conservatives and busi- spawned an internal political debate domestic policy studies at the Heri- Kemp, who made it known yesterday ness groups, but it has put President within the White House, according tage Foundation, which has enthusi- that they support the idea of cutting Bush in the risky position of oppos- to administration officials. astically endorsed the Moynihan tax the payroll tax to boost savings and ing a politically appealing tax cut It also has triggered some unusu- cut. "Cutting the payroll tax is good WASHINGTON TIMES aimed at his middle-class support- ally harsh criticism of Mr. Bush politics and good policy. Working- see TAXES, page A10 TAXES helped the Republicans win the opposed by Mr. Bush. Mr. Darman Ironically, the strongest and most White House in five out of the last says the $55 billion in lost Social Se- immediate support for Mr. Moy- six presidential elections. curity revenue that the tax cut would From page Al nihan's proposal has come from an Among other things, say eco- cost in 1991 alone would balloon the unholy alliance of liberal and con- economic growth. nomic and political analysts, it hands deficit and lead to renewed Demo- servative organizations, business "[Budget Director Richard] Dar- the Democrats a golden opportunity cratic pressure to raise the top in- groups and some GOP leaders in man's position that he wants to keep to appeal to traditionally Republican come tax rates. Congress. In addition to Heritage's the Social Security] surplus buildup voters and at the same time turn the Mr. Moynihan has yet to say how endorsement, the proposal has won and opposes the tax cut is inconsis- tables on the Bush administration by he will offset this revenue loss, favorable reactions from the liber- tent with Jack's position," said a top forcing it to oppose a popular tax- whether through spending cuts or tarian Cato Institute, the National Kemp aide. "He sees this as a burden cutting idea. tax increases elsewhere. Taxpayers Union, the National Fed- on middle-income workers and "Poor George Bush," said Robert White House Chief of Staff John eration of Independent Business small businesses." Shapiro, director of economic stud- Sununu said earlier this week that and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. ies with the Progressive Policy Insti- the administration was against cut- Mr. Moynihan chairs the Senate "It's a good idea," said David Boaz, Finance subcommittee on Social Se- executive vice president of the Cato curity and is considered by groups Institute. The administration "ought representing the elderly to be one of Ironically, the strongest and most immediate to become an enthusiastic sponsor of the program's strongest supporters. it. Otherwise, they'll let the Demo- He surprised his party's leadership support for Mr. Moynihan's proposal has come crats steal the most successful Re- and the administration when he un- from an unholy alliance of liberal and publican issue." expectedly announced late last Support on the left also has come month that he would introduce legis- conservative organizations, business groups from the Institute of Policy Studies, lation to cut the payroll tax when where public policy analyst Robert Congress returns to business on Jan. and some GOP leaders in Congress. Borosage has called the idea "good 23. economics, good public policy and The Social Security tax rate that good politics - - the first protest of funds the retirement portion of the tute, a Democratic think tank, and a an increasingly hard-pressed mid- ting the payroll tax until the deficit program increased on Jan. 1 from dle class." close Moynihan adviser. "The White was eliminated. Mr. Bush is ex- 6.06 percent to 6.2 percent. Mr. On Capitol Hill, Sen. Robert Kas- House decision to oppose the Moynihan would repeal that in- pected to propose an alternative plan Moynihan tax cut makes him not ten of Wisconsin, one of the leading crease retroactively and then cut the in his forthcoming budget to grad- only the president of no new taxes Republican supply-side tax cutters, tax rate further to 5.1 percent by ually reduce the national debt by has indicated he would like to co- but of no new tax cuts." Jan. 1, 1991. using the accumulated Social Secu- According to Mr. Shapiro, an en- sponsor the measure. GOP support "This would be a $55 billion tax rity surpluses. thusiastic supporter of the idea, also has been voiced by House Mi- cut for working people in 1991, and Nevertheless, aides to the presi- "The Democrats have learned the nority Whip Newt Gingrich of Geor- the amount would be greater in fu- dent said yesterday that Mr. Moy- lesson that the Republicans have gia and Rep. Henry Hyde of Illinois. ture years," Mr. Moynihan said in an- nihan's proposal has been getting However, Democratic leaders taught them, that there is never a nouncing the idea. long and serious scrutiny. political cost to cutting taxes. I think have yet to reveal their positions, "There's been a lot of debate over His proposal would benefit pri- the political temptation is too great though Ed Lopez, Mr. Moynihan's marily working-class and middle- it, pro and con," said one Bush ad- for the Democrats to turn away from chief Social Security aide, said the income taxpayers - the bedrock po- viser. "This is a very clever political this." senator has been receiving support litical constituencies that have move by Moynihan, but we don't from Democratic offices "at the The Moynihan proposal is flatly think it's going to hurt us politically." staff level" for the idea. REPORT OF THE NATIONAL COMMISSION ON SOCIAL SECURITY REFORM JANUARY 1983 SUPPLEMENTARY STATEMENT BY Commissioners Robert M. Ball, Martha Keys, Lane Kirkland, Daniel Patrick Moynihan and Claude Pepper (members selected by the Democratic leadership of the Congress) Long-Term Financing and Issues of Special Concern to Women Meeting the Remaining Long-Term Deficit All of us supported the compromise agreement which is being recommended by a vote of 12 to 3 of the full Commission.1/ The agreement provides for fully meeting the Commission's short-term financing goal and also for meeting about two-thirds of the Commission's long-term goal--1.22% of payroll out of the 1.8% projected need. We recommend that the remaining 0.58% of payroll deficit be met by providing additional revenues starting in the year 2010, in advance of the period when the bulk of the deficit is projected to occur. Sufficient additional revenues would be provided by an increase of less than one-half of 1% (0.46%) in deductions from workers' earnings beginning in 2010 and a like amount in employer payroll taxes (with an equal combined rate for the self-employed) or the revenue could be supplied by an equivalent general revenue contribution, or some combination of the two. For purposes of present legislation we would support putting in the law now an increase in the contribution rate beginning in 2010 of 0.46% of payroll (with the employee contribution offset by a refundable income tax credit) recognizing, of course, that in the next century the Congress may prefer to raise the money in some other way and that, in fact, such a rate increase would not be allowed to go into effect unless estimates at the time of the scheduled increase showed that it would be needed. Social Security 2 to about 42 percent of their last pay- check. The package would reduce this Benefit Cuts Under Pickle Plan "replacement rate" to 40 percent. In addition, Heim' amendment Percentage of Full Retirement Benefits called for elimination of the current penalty imposed on beneficiaries who Age at Current End of End of work after they reach retirement age, Retirement Law Stage One (2009) Stage Two (2027) over a five-year period beginning in 1990. Now, benefits are reduced $1 for 62 80.0% 75.0% 70.0% every $2 retirees up to age 70 earn 63 86.7 80.0 75.0 over $6,600 a year. 64 93.3 86.7 80.0 The package also would increase 65 100.0 93.3 86.7 benefits for those who leave the work 66 103.0 100.0 93.3 force to care for their children at home 67 106.0 108.0 100.0 under age six. Currently, a worker's five lowest-earning, or non-earning, "Percentage of benefits available to a worker who retires at the normal retirement age. years are not counted when determin- ing his or her initial Social Security benefit. The bill would allow two addi- tional "drop-out" years for child care. tion for his long defense of the elderly, and charged it would penalize the mil- The committee rejected 15-2 a most would not give him their votes. lions of workers who must retire early proposal by Daniel Patrick Moynihan, The Pickle amendment was ap- because of poor health or mandatory D-N.Y., to raise payroll taxes in the proved by a 228-202 vote, with the retirement. year 2010, in place of benefit cuts. backing of 152 Republicans and 76 "This amendment assumes peo- Democrats, including Ways and ple are able to work longer than they Other Finance Action Means Chairman Dan Rostenkowski, are now. This is just not the case," The committee also rejected 11-6 D-Ill., and a majority of committee argued James M. Shannon, D-Mass. a motion by Russell B. Long, D-La., to members. (Vote 20, p. 530) "This will simply cut their benefits." delay the effective date of a provision Pepper's measure, despite the But Pickle defended the age in- calling for Social Security coverage of backing of House Speaker Thomas P. crease as necessary to keep up with new federal employees until a supple- O'Neill Jr., D-Mass., was rejected by a changing demographics. He pointed mental Civil Service retirement plan vote of 132-296. (Vote 21, p. 530) out that life expectancy had increased could be established. "History is being written on this more than 10 years since the 65-year Members have given assurances floor. We are changing the tradition of retirement age was set in place over 40 that such a supplemental plan would this country," O'Neill said when it was years ago. be set up, but federal workers fear apparent the Pepper measure would Raising the retirement age is "not they face retirement benefit cuts if no fail. "In America, each generation has harsh," he said. "That is just in keep- new workers are available to pay into always paid for the generation that ing with the times." their current system. has gone before them." Pickle's amendment also would Federal employee unions have The controversy over raising the require the Department of Health and waged an all-out campaign to defeat retirement age or increasing taxes has Human Services to make recommen- the coverage provision, but have met been one of the major ones surround- dations by Jan. 1, 1986, on how Con- with little success so far. Finance ing the Social Security crisis. gress should deal with individuals who Chairman Robert Dole, R-Kan., Pepper's impassioned plea to his cannot retire later because of phys- charged that a delay in the Jan. 1, colleagues not to cut benefits won him ically demanding jobs. 1984, effective date would only give a standing ovation, but it was not Those voting against passage of lobbyists a longer time to fight for re- enough to convince most members the bill included both liberals opposed peal. that the "structural" change of a to the higher retirement age and cov- Besides agreeing to the package of higher retirement age was the best erage of federal employees and conser- long-term provisions, the committee way to restore the confidence of cur- vatives opposed to additional taxes. made several other changes in the rent workers in the retirement system. House bill. One of the major ones was The Pickle amendment would Senate Solution a proposal by Long to cut beneficia- raise the retirement age in two stages. The Finance Committee agreed to ries' cost-of-living checks, as a last re- The first would be a gradual increase a broader package of changes to ad- sort, if reserves in the Social Security from 65 to 66 over a six-year period dress the system's long-range prob- trust funds fall below a certain level ending in the year 2009. The second lems. because of unexpectedly bad economic increase would be from 66 to 67 over The package, proposed by John conditions. another six-year period ending in the Heinz, R-Pa., and adopted 13-4, called The provision would go into effect year 2027. for a gradual increase in the retire- in 1985, but would be used only after While individuals still would be ment age from 65 to 66 over a 15-year all other emergency measures allowed able to take early retirement at age 62, period beginning in the year 2000. in the bill - including borrowing be- their benefits would be reduced from It also would reduce initial bene- tween the system's three trust funds the current 80 percent of full benefits fits by 5 percent beginning the same - had been exhausted. to 70 percent in 2027. (Box, above) year. Currently, workers receive an The bill also would require the Opponents seized on this change initial Social Security payment equal managers of the trust funds to give COPYRIGHT 1983 CONGRESSIONAL QUARTERLY INC. PAGE 488-March 12, 1983 Reproduction prohibited in whole or in part except by editorial clients. Social Security - 3 six-months' notice that such a benefit jobless benefits than the program Both bills are based on the ad- cut might be necessary so that Con- adopted by the House. Existing emer- ministration plan to provide for a sys- gress would have the option to make gency benefits, approved by Congress tem of set prices for ingatient treat- other adjustments to the system be- last year, are set to expire March 31. ment of different illnesses, and they fore the COLA cuts were made. (Background, Weekly Report p. 420) prohibit charging individual patients The committee also agreed to: The Senate measure - expected more than the set price. Hospitals de- Include tax-exempt income when to cost over $2 billion - would allow livering care for less than the set price computing a beneficiary's income to up to eight more weeks of benefits to may keep the difference. This scheme determine if his or her Social Security those individuals who have exhausted would replace the existing system in benefits should be taxed. Both the up to 55 weeks of federal and state which, within certain limits, hospitals House and Senate bills call for tax- benefits before April 1. The House bill are paid after delivery of care for the ation of a portion of benefits for indi- would allow up to 10 more weeks. portion of their total costs attribut- viduals whose adjusted gross income, In addition, individuals who do able to Medicare patients. plus 50 percent of Social Security not qualify for the federal emergency The set prices would not include benefits, exceeds $25,000 ($32,000 for benefits until after April 1 could re- hospitals' teaching costs or capital ex- married couples filing a joint return). ceive up to 14 weeks of additional penditures for construction or major The proposal was offered by John benefits depending on their state's equipment; those costs would con- H. Chafee, R-R.I., who argued that jobless rate, under the Finance bill. tinue to be paid under the existing some beneficiaries might try to avoid Those who have not exhausted system. The Senate bill, however, the new tax by diverting their taxable their emergency benefits when the ex- mandates that capital costs be income into tax-exempt income. tension expires Sept. 30 could receive factored into the new price structure Provide a more generous tax up to 50 percent of their remaining after October 1986. Many medical credit to offset higher taxes for the payments after the expiration date. economists regard controls on capital self-employed. The Finance Commit- The Senate bill also would pro- expenditures to be an important step tee bill calls for a credit against self- vide a plan to give certain hard-hit toward controlling inflation in health employment taxes of 2.9 percent in states some leeway in repaying inter- care costs. 1984, 2.5 percent in 1985, 2.2 percent est owed on outstanding loans from Both bills substitute a four-year in 1986, 2.1 percent in 1987-89 and 2.3 the federal unemployment trust fund. phase-in of the new payment method percent after 1989. Currently, states owe about $12 billion for the Oct. 1 effective date suggested The House bill calls for a credit of to the fund, and many see little chance by the administration. Both require 2.1 percent in 1984, 1.8 percent in of being able to repay the loans, or separate rates for urban and rural hos- 1985-87 and 1.9 percent after 1987. make large interest payments, soon. pitals, and for different regions of the Both measures would increase payroll Under the plan, states would be country; the administration plan had taxes for the self-employed 33 percent, allowed to spread their interest pay-- called for a single, national schedule of beginning in 1984, to equal the com- ments over a five-year period if they rates with area adjustments only for bined taxes now paid by employers can show that they are taking steps to labor costs. Both would give state cost and employees. improve the solvency of their state un- control systems substantially more au- Eliminate Social Security benefits employment compensation programs. thority than the administration for non-resident aliens, their depen- The committee also agreed to ac- wanted to depart from the set-price dents and survivors, except for pay- cept provisions in the House bill to payment method if they meet certain ments equal to the amount the alien increase monthly SSI benefits $20 and criteria. worker had paid into the system, plus to delay a scheduled SSI COLA six Both bills require the secretary of interest. months until January 1985. health and human services to study Expand Social Security coverage and report to Congress on the feasibil- to include all new federal employees, Medicare Provisions ity of applying the new price system to members of Congress, the president The Senate bill's Medicare provi- physician services in the future. and vice president. The House bill sions are generally the same as those also would include top political in the House measure, with differ- appointees, certain elected officials ences in certain details. (House bill, and sitting federal judges. Weekly Report p. 455) Exempt from Social Security cov- For instance, both bills depart CLARIFICATION erage members of the Amish religious from the administration proposal by sect who work for Amish employers. mandating that hospital admission Medicare Payments. Weekly Allow the three Social Security patterns and other factors be reviewed Report p. 457, col. 3, 2nd full para- trust funds to borrow from each other to guard against costly manipulations graph. The Gephardt amendment per- through 1987, as long as no funds were of the new system, or poor care for mits hospitals to bill separately for borrowed from the Hospital Insurance patients. But the Senate measure services provided during hospitaliza- (HI) trust fund, which finances Medi- specifies that Professional Review Or- tion if the hospital billed separately care, when its reserves were low. ganizations (PROs) authorized in the for such services before Oct. 1, 1982. Eliminate Social Security benefits 1982 tax bill must do the job, while the However, because the legislation (HR for imprisoned felons. House bill permits the use of other 1900) includes an overall prohibition Jobless Benefits/SSI types of organizations. The Senate bill against billing individual Medicare does not include a House provision patients, separate billings under this The Finance Committee also authorizing severe penalties for cer- provision would be allowed only to agreed to a slightly less generous six- tain violations of the system or com- Part B of Medicare, the optional plan month extension of federal emergency promised quality of care. that covers physician fees. COPYRIGHT 1983 CONGRESSIONAL QUARTERLY INC Reproduction prohibited in whole or in part except by admorial chents. March 12, 1983-PAGE 489 The National Commission makes the following recommendations unanimously: (1) The members of the National Commission believe that the Congress, in its deliberations on financing proposals, should not alter the fundamental structure of the Social Security program or undermine its fundamental principles.* The National Commission considered, but rejected, proposals to make the Social Security program a voluntary one, or to transform it into a program under which benefits are a product exclusively of the contributions paid, or to convert it into a fully-funded program, or to change it to a program under which benefits are conditioned on the showing of financial need.** (2) The National Commission recommends that, for purposes of considering the short-range financial status of the OASDI Trust Funds, $150-200 billion in either additional income or in decreased outgo (or a combination of both) should be provided for the OASDI Trust Funds in calendar years 1983-89. (3) The National Commission finds that, for purposes of considering the long-range financial status of the OASDI Trust Funds, its actuarial See additional views of Commissioner Archer in Chapter 4. See additional views (with regard to the last point) of Commissioners Archer, Fuller, and Waggonner in Chapter 4. 2- 2 of Social Security Leaders Optimistic: all new federal employees and workers in non-profit organizations beginning Jan. 1, 1984, and would include all Social Security Rescue Plan current and new members of Congress under the Social Security system. In addition, both bills include a Rushes to Final Hill Accord major revamping of the way the gov- ernment reimburses hospitals under Medicare and a six-month extension Setting partisanship aside, the one of the biggest Senate opponents of full House and the Senate Finance the commission plan, praised the Fi- of an emergency jobless benefit pro- Committee have given a Social Secu- nance Committee bill, although he gram. They also increase certain Sup- rity rescue plan a quick push toward said he still planned to offer some plemental Security Income (SSI) floor amendments. benefits for the aged, blind and dis- final passage. The House March 9, by a 282-148 He observed that quick action in abled poor. vote, passed a bill (HR 1900) to keep both houses and adoption of the re- the system from going broke. The Fi- tirement-age increase had proved "the Pickle or Pepper? nance Committee approved a similar cynics are wrong. There are occasions Final House passage did not come measure (S 1) the following day by a when Congress will rally to the task without a sometimes emotional floor vote of 18-1. (House vote 23, p. 530) and do what is politically hard." debate over the best way to solve the The legislation now goes to the Armstrong and other conserva- system's projected financial difficul- Senate floor where debate is expected tives had criticized the commission's ties when the Baby Boom generation to begin March 15 or 16. Congres- rescue plan because of its reliance on begins to retire in the next century. sional leaders are optimistic about some large tax increases to keep the The president's commission left sending a package to President Rea- gan before the March 26 Easter break. The votes in both houses heralded the end of nearly two years of bitter partisan bickering over Social Secu- rity. Members indicated they expected little trouble with the legislation be- fore it reaches the president's desk. "The cynics are wrong. Congress must complete action There are occasions when Con- soon or the financially troubled retire- gress will rally to the task and ment system will be unable to pay out do what is politically hard." some 36 million benefit checks in July. The House and Finance Commit- -Sen. William L. Armstrong, R-Colo. tee measures closely parallel the rec- ommendations made in January by the president's National Commission on Social Security Reform. But they also include provisions dealing with the system's long-range problems - an area where the commission could system afloat. One critic, Steven D. that sensitive issue unresolved, and not reach consensus - that appear to Symms, R-Idaho, cast the one dissent- have dampened much of the conserva- the House Ways and Means Commit- ing vote in the Finance Committee. tive opposition to the commission tee bill called for a hybrid solution - Both bills would raise about $165 plan. (Commission recommendations, cutting benefits and raising taxes - billion over the next seven years. They Weekly Report p. 155) with the understanding that two sub- are expected to solve the retirement These include steps in both bills stitute proposals would be considered and disability system's financial prob- to raise the retirement age. The House on the floor. (Weekly Report p. 453) lems well into the next century by would raise the age gradually from 65 Besides an amendment raising raising a total of almost $1.9 trillion to 67 by the year 2027; the Senate the retirement age - offered by Social over a 75-year period. Finance Committee approved a one- Security Subcommittee Chairman Besides increasing the retirement year increase by the year 2015, but it J.J. Pickle, D-Texas - Rules Com- also agreed to cut initial benefits 5 age, the two measures would raise mittee Chairman Claude Pepper, D- scheduled payroll taxes over the next percent after the turn of the century. Fla., proposed a .53 percentage point William L. Armstrong, R-Colo., decade, delay the July cost-of-living increase in payroll taxes in the year allowance (COLA) six months and tax 2010 to prevent a cut in benefits. the Social Security benefits of high- But House members showed dur- -By Pamela Fessler income individuals for the first time. ing the debate that while they were and Elizabeth Wehr They also call for the coverage of willing to give Pepper their admira- COPYRIGHT 1983 CONGRESSIONAL QUARTERLY INC Reproduction prohibited â whole or E port except by editorial clients March 12, 1983-PAGE 487 CQ Senate Vote 54 Corresponding to Congressional Record Vote 54 KEY Y Voted for (yea). ALABAMA IOWA NEW HAMPSHIRE # Paired for. Denton Y Grassley Y Humphrey Y + Announced for. Heflin ? Jepsen Y Rudman Y N Voted against (nay). ALASKA KANSAS NEW JERSEY X Paired against. Murkowski + Dole Y Bradley Y - Announced against. Stevens Y Kassebaum Y Lautenberg Y ARIZONA KENTUCKY NEW MEXICO P Voted "present". Goldwater + Ford Y Domenici Y C Voted "present" to avoid possi- DeConcini ? Huddleston ? Bingaman Y ble conflict of interest. ARKANSAS LOUISIANA NEW YORK ? Did not vote or otherwise make a Bumpers Y Johnston ? D'Amato Y position known. Pryor ? Long N Moynihon Y CALIFORNIA MAINE NORTH CAROLINA Democrats Republicans Wilson Y Cohen Y East N Cranston Y Mitchell Y Helms ? COLORADO MARYLAND NORTH DAKOTA Armstrong N Mathias ? Andrews Y Hort ? Sarbanes ? Burdick Y CONNECTICUT MASSACHUSETTS ОНЮ TEXAS Weicker + Kennedy ? Glenn Y Tower ? Dodd Y Tsongas Y Metzenboum ? Bentsen ? DELAWARE MICHIGAN OKLAHOMA UTAH Roth ? Levin Y Nickles N Garn N Biden Y Riegle Y Boren N Hatch N FLORIDA MINNESOTA OREGON VERMONT Hawkins Y Boschwitz Y Hatfield ? Stafford ? Chiles ? Durenberger Y Packwood ? Leahy Y GEORGIA MISSISSIPPI PENNSYLVANIA VIRGINIA Mattingly N Cochran Y Heinz Y Trible Y Nunn N Stennis Y Specter Y Warner Y HAWAII MISSOURI RHODE ISLAND WASHINGTON Inouye ? Danforth Y Chafee Y Gorton Y Matsunaga Y Eogleton ? Pell + Jackson Y IDAHO MONTANA SOUTH CAROLINA WEST VIRGINIA McClure N Boucus Y Thurmond Y Byrd Y Symms N Melcher Y Hollings N Randolph Y ILLINOIS NEBRASKA SOUTH DAKOTA WISCONSIN Percy ? Exon N Abdnor Y Kasten Y Dixon Y Zonnsky N Pressler ? Proxmire Y INDIANA NEVADA TENNESSEE WYOMING Lugar Y Hecht Y Baker Y Simpson Y Quayle ? Laxoh ? Sasser Y Wallop Y ND Northern Democrats SD Southern Democrats (Southern states Alo., Ark., Flo., Go., Ky., La., Miss., N.C., Okla., S.C., Tenn., Texas, Va.) 54. HR 1900. Social Security Act Amendments. Adoption of the conference report on the bill to overhaul the Social Security system, to revamp the way the federal government reimburses hospitals for Medicare, to extend the federal supplemental unem- ployment benefit program for six months and to increase Supple- mental Security Income benefits. Adopted (thus cleared for the president) 58-14: R 32-8; D 26-6 (ND 22-2, SD 4-4), in the session that began March 24, 1983. A "yea" was a vote supporting the president's position. 12-S-1983 CQ ALMANAC TIMES 07-19-88 Don't Touch Those Social Security Funds To the Editor: 30/104/309 Morgan group, "the trust funds could A Princeton economist recently absorb all outstanding Federat-debt wrote that the secret is out concern- by the year 2005." We were well ing the surpluses in the Social Se- aware that we had put in place's feve- curity trust funds. Indeed it is, and so nue stream that could quadruple the I fear are assorted entrepreneurs national savings rate, again to cite with schemes for getting their hands the Morgan study. on some portion thereof! All that need be done now Ta ioi, On your Op-Ed page of July 7, my but even so, all - is to gel our operat- good friend Walt Rostow. of the Uni- ing budget in balance. Thereafter, the versity of Texas proposes that we use trust funds will absorb the privately the money to set up a public invest- held debt, which automatically trans- ment bank, which among other lates into an increase in national sav- things, "would help put the stricken ings. But the trust funds themselves banking systems of Important parts must remain intact and untouchable of the nation back on their feet." save to pay benefits. This becomes an Hmm. Issue of integrity and was integral to This morning, you report ("Study the Blair House accords. Suggests a Partly Private Social Se- It would be useful to hear from our curity," Business Day) that a group Presidential candidates on this sub- at J.P. Morgan & Company would ject. DANIEL PATRICK MOYNIHAN have us refund the surplus to individ- U.S. Senator from New York uals so that they can invest in stocks Washington, July 11, 1988 and bonds. Again, hmm. A common theme of these and other proposals is that the political process cannot be trusted with so much money. The Morgan study be- gins: "The burgeoning surplus of the U.S. Social Security system has come to the fore this year as the latest temptation to procrastinate on deci- sive measures to cut the Federal budget deficit." Possibly. May one ask, however, that some considera- tion be given the fact that it was the political process that created this revenue stream. This began with a conversation be- tween me and Senator Bob Dole on the Senate floor on Jan. 3, 1983, fol- lowed by 11 days of intensive negotia- tions with a White House team led by James A. Baker 3d, then chief of staff. Agreement was reached at Blair House on Saturday night, Jan. 15. In essence, we agreed to move from a pay-as-you-go system to a partly funded one. (The Canadians had shown the way.) We could count. We knew perfectly well that, to quote the The Herîtage Backgrounder Foundation 214 Massachusetts Avenue N.E. Washington, D.C. 20002 (202)546-4400 1/10/90 120 Number THREE CHEERS FOR MOYNIHAN'S $55 BILLION TAX CUT FOR WORKING AMERICANS (Updating Backgrounder No. 683, "The Case for Keeping Social Security in the Budget," December 19, 1988, and Backgrounder No. 597, "Upcoming Social Security Tax Hikes Can Threaten Retirement Benefits," August 5, 1987) By now most Americans have received their first pay checks of the new year. To their shock, their take home pay is smaller than in 1989's final pay check. The reason is the stealth tax hike that is raising Social Security taxes for the seventh time in ten years. This one takes $7 billion out of American pockets, cutting the take-home pay of all American workers by up to $600 a year. As bad, the increased levy on employers will cause many to trim jobrolls or cancel their expan- sion. For 80 percent of middle-income families, the cruelly persistent escalating Social Security taxes have eroded all of their income tax cuts of the Reagan years. These tax hikes allegedly are imposed in the name of "saving" the Social Security system. Yet even without the added revenues the retirement program will be financially solvent for at least the next three decades. The new funds, moreover, would not be put aside to build up a reserve to pay out benefits to "baby boomers" when they retire in the next century. Instead, the retirement funds' surplus mountain - $70 billion this year and soaring to $230 billion by the year 2000 - are to be spent on current government programs. Nothing is being saved, deposited, or invested for future retirees. "Thievery" is what Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan, the New York Democrat, correctly brands this and he is attempting to stop it. As chairman of the Senate Finance Subcommittee on Social Security, Moynihan will introduce legislation to end permanently this congressional mismanagement of Social Security retirement funds and grant long overdue tax relief to U.S. wage earners. His plan would cancel this year's unneeded Social Security payroll tax increase immediately and cut a further 2.2 percentage points next year. His intent is to have incoming payroll taxes and outgoing retirement payments balance each other each year. This would give $55 billion back to American workers next year without affecting current or future Social Security benefits. Social Security would become a genuine "pay-as-you-go" system, rather than the cash cow that has been subsidizing federal spending. Moynihan understands the soundness of this. So should George Bush. The President should warmly endorse this tax cut for 125 million American workers. If he does not, he will be making a serious economic (to say nothing of political) mistake. Since the Social Security program's inception in 1937 when the tax rate was set at two percent of payroll for the first $3,000 of earnings, Social Security taxes have risen steadily. In 1960, the taxes amounted to 6 percent of wages; today they are 15.3 percent on income up to $51,300, with half paid directly by workers and half by their employers. The current rate structure was set in 1983 when lawmakers expected sluggish economic growth, and thus low tax receipts, for the remainder of the decade. But the gloomy forecasts proved to be wildly off target. The robust economic expansion of the 1980s, with 18 million new jobs, generated a huge and unexpected Note: Nothing written here is to be construed as necessarily reflecting the views of The Heritage Foundation or as an attempt to aid or hinder the passage of any bill before Congress. surplus in Social Security payroll tax receipts. The Moynihan tax cut proposal merely corrects the tax rates for this error in government forecasting. Reducing the payroll tax also would help to the American economy enormously. A payroll tax is not merely regressive, falling disproportionately on lower-income workers, but it is one of the most economically destructive ways for the government to raise revenue, because it discourages businesses from hiring additional workers. Former U.S. Treasury economists Aldona and Gary Robbins estimate that the 1988 and 1990 payroll tax hikes will cost Americans 510,000 jobs and reduce gross national product by $320 billion over the next ten years. By contrast, they argue, every dollar reduction in Social Security taxes would expand economic output by 68 cents. Some critics of the Moynihan plan complain that his reduction in Social Security taxes today would eliminate the surplus needed to pay the benefits when the baby boom generation retirements. This ignores one central point: with or without a payroll tax cut, there will be no Social Security fund surplus (actually not even a "fund") since the surplus money routinely is spent on non-Social Security programs as soon as it reaches Washington. All that is in the "fund" is a stack of IOUs from the Treasury. The best way for Congress to protect the solvency of Social Security in the next century is through a pro-growth tax policy. Part of this is the payroll tax cut recommended by Moynihan. Part of this is the capital gains tax cut urged by Bush. And part could be by other tax reforms, like expanding the Individual Retirement Account eligibility. Such a pro-growth tax policy is the best way to assure funds for retiring Americans. Example: If Americans' real per capita incomes were to grow by just 2 percent per year, or about the rate of growth of the 1980s, between now and 2030 - the year in which the "baby boom" pressure on Social Security will reach its peak - workers in that year will have more than double the incomes of today's workers, substantially easing the burden of paying for retirement and health care programs for the elderly population that year. By contrast, maintaining today's high payroll taxes will dampen productivity and output, meaning tomorrow's workforce will be less capable of paying the bill for retirees. Another objection levelled at the Moynihan plan is that a Social Security tax cut will inflate the federal budget deficit. But the regressive Social Security tax was never intended to finance the deficit or pay for any program other than Social Security. Moreover, projections show that even with the Moynihan tax cut the deficit can be brought under control through modest spending restraint. For instance, if the Social Security tax were reduced to the level needed just to cover Social Security spending, and all other federal programs were frozen at 1990 levels, the budget would be balanced by 1994. Thanks to hikes in the Social Security payroll tax, the vast majority of middle-income Americans forfeit a larger share of their income to the federal tax collector in 1990 than they did in 1980. Senator Moynihan's plan to roll back Social Security taxes would end this stealth tax increase and return pay-as-you-go honesty to the Social Security system by preventing Washington from raiding the pension program. The White House should join other champions of economic growth in endorsing the Moynihan tax cut. Stephen Moore Grover M. Hermann Fellow in Federal Budgetary Affairs