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Spotted Owl (1990) [2]
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Spotted Owl (1990) [2]
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Records of the White House Office of the Chief of Staff to the President (George H. W. Bush Administration)
John Sununu Issues Files
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Originally Processed With FOIA(s):
FOIA Number:
1998-0004-F[1]
S
FOIA
MARKER
This is not a textual record. This is used as an
administrative marker by the George Bush Presidential
Library Staff.
Record Group/Collection:
George H.W. Bush Presidential Records
Collection/Office of Origin:
Chief of Staff, White House Office of
Series:
Sununu, John, Files
Subseries:
Issues Files
OA/ID Number:
29172
Folder ID Number:
29172-003
Folder Title:
Spotted Owl (1990) [2]
Stack:
Row:
Section:
Shelf:
Position:
G
15
25
4
3
Withdrawal/Redaction Sheet
(George Bush Library)
Document No.
Subject/Title of Document
Date
Restriction
Class.
and Type
01a. Memo
From Roger Porter to John Sununu
5/22/90
P-5
Re: Log Exports (1 pp.)
Collection:
Record Group:
Bush Presidential Records
Open on Expiration of PRA
Office:
Chief of Staff, White House Office of
(Document Follows)
Series:
Sununu, John, Files
By
(NLGB)
on
5/12/05
Subseries:
Issues Files
WHORM Cat.:
File Location:
Spotted Owl (1990) [2]
Date Closed:
12/13/2004
OA/ID Number:
29172-003
FOIA/SYS Case #:
1998-0004-F[1]
Appeal Case #:
Re-review Case #:
2005-0426-S
Appeal Disposition:
P-2/P-5 Review Case #:
Disposition Date:
AR Case #:
MR Case #:
AR Disposition:
MR Disposition:
AR Disposition Date:
MR Disposition Date:
RESTRICTION CODES
Presidential Records Act - [44 U.S.C. 2204(a)]
Freedom of Information Act - [5 U.S.C. 552(b)]
P-1 National Security Classified Information [(a)(1) of the PRA]
(b)(1) National security classified information [(b)(1) of the FOIA]
P-2 Relating to the appointment to Federal office [(a)(2) of the PRA]
(b)(2) Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of an
P-3 Release would violate a Federal statute [(a)(3) of the PRA]
agency [(b)(2) of the FOIA]
P-4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or
(b)(3) Release would violate a Federal statute [(b)(3) of the FOIA]
financial information [(a)(4) of the PRA]
(b)(4) Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial
P-5 Release would disclose confidential advice between the President
information [(b)(4) of the FOIA]
and his advisors, or between such advisors [a)(5) of the PRA]
(b)(6) Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of
P-6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of
personal privacy [(b)(6) of the FOIA]
personal privacy [(a)(6) of the PRA]
(b)(7) Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement
purposes [(b)(7) of the FOIA]
C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed of
(b)(8) Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of
gift.
financial institutions [(b)(8) of the FOIA]
(b)(9) Release would disclose geological or geophysical information
PRM. Removed as a personal record misfile.
Spotted Owl
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
May 22, 1990
MEMORANDUM FOR ROGER PORTER
FROM:
ED ROGERS
SUBJECT:
LOG EXPORTS
Wayne Berman wants Governor Sununu to get
into the mix on this issue. It it
something that the Governor should be
concerned with right now?
Please advise.
Many thanks.
CC: Governor Sununu
Withdrawal/Redaction Sheet
(George Bush Library)
Document No.
Subject/Title of Document
Date
Restriction
Class.
and Type
01b. Memo
From Wayne Berman to Edward M. Rogers, Jr.
5/21/90
5
Re: Log Exports (1 pp.)
Collection:
Record Group:
Bush Presidential Records
Open on Expiration of PRA
Office:
Chief of Staff, White House Office of
(Document Follows)
Series:
Sununu, John, Files
By (NLGB) on 5/12/05
Subseries:
Issues Files
WHORM Cat.:
File Location:
Spotted Owl (1990) [2]
Date Closed:
12/13/2004
OA/ID Number:
29172-003
FOIA/SYS Case #:
1998-0004-F[1]
Appeal Case #:
Re-review Case #:
2005-0426-S
Appeal Disposition:
P-2/P-5 Review Case #:
Disposition Date:
AR Case #:
MR Case #:
AR Disposition:
MR Disposition:
AR Disposition Date:
MR Disposition Date:
RESTRICTION CODES
Presidential Records Act - [44 U.S.C. 2204(a)]
Freedom of Information Act - [5 U.S.C. 552(b)]
P-1 National Security Classified Information [(a)(1) of the PRA]
(b)(1) National security classified information [(b)(1) of the FOIA]
P-2 Relating to the appointment to Federal office [(a)(2) of the PRA]
(b)(2) Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of an
P-3 Release would violate a Federal statute [(a)(3) of the PRA]
agency [(b)(2) of the FOIA]
P-4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or
(b)(3) Release would violate a Federal statute [(b)(3) of the FOIA]
financial information [(a)(4) of the PRA]
(b)(4) Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial
P-5 Release would disclose confidential advice between the President
information [(b)(4) of the FOIA]
and his advisors, or between such advisors [a)(5) of the PRA]
(b)(6) Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of
P-6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of
personal privacy [(b)(6) of the FOIA]
personal privacy [(a)(6) of the PRA]
(b)(7) Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement
purposes [(b)(7) of the FOIA]
C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed of
(b)(8) Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of
gift.
financial institutions [(b)(8) of the FOIA]
(b)(9) Release would disclose geological or geophysical information
PRM. Removed as a personal record misfile.
05/21/90
15:54
002
C of C
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Immediate Office of the Secretary
STATES of ,
May 21, 1990
To
:
Edward M. Rogers, Jr.
The White House
From:
Counsellor to the Sectetary
Wayne L. Berman, UBenna
Attached is the Log Export information
I promised to send to you.
As you can see, it's an issue we need
to address very soon. If you have any
question, please call me at: 377-4246.
Best regards.
Withdrawal/Redaction Sheet
(George Bush Library)
Document No.
Subject/Title of Document
Date
Restriction
Class.
and Type
01c. Paper
From Wayne Berman to Edward M. Rogers, Jr.
5/21/90
P/S
Re: Log Exports (2 pp.)
Collection:
Record Group:
Bush Presidential Records
Open on Expiration of PRA
Office:
Chief of Staff, White House Office of
(Document Follows)
Series:
Sununu, John, Files
By
(NLGB)
on
5/12/05
Subseries:
Issues Files
WHORM Cat.:
File Location:
Spotted Owl (1990) [2]
Date Closed:
12/13/2004
OA/ID Number:
29172-003
FOIA/SYS Case #:
1998-0004-F[1]
Appeal Case #:
Re-review Case #:
2005-0426-S
Appeal Disposition:
P-2/P-5 Review Case #:
Disposition Date:
AR Case #:
MR Case #:
AR Disposition:
MR Disposition:
AR Disposition Date:
MR Disposition Date:
RESTRICTION CODES
Presidential Records Act - [44 U.S.C. 2204(a)]
Freedom of Information Act - [5 U.S.C. 552(b)]
P-1 National Security Classified Information [(a)(1) of the PRA]
(b)(1) National security classified information [(b)(1) of the FOIA]
P-2 Relating to the appointment to Federal office [(a)(2) of the PRA]
(b)(2) Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of an
P-3 Release would violate a Federal statute [(a)(3) of the PRA]
agency [(b)(2) of the FOIA]
P-4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or
(b)(3) Release would violate a Federal statute [(b)(3) of the FOIA]
financial information [(a)(4) of the PRA]
(b)(4) Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial
P-5 Release would disclose confidential advice between the President
information [(b)(4) of the FOIA]
and his advisors, or between such advisors [a)(5) of the PRA]
(b)(6) Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of
P-6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of
personal privacy [(b)(6) of the FOIA]
personal privacy [(a)(6) of the PRA]
(b)(7) Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement
purposes [(b)(7) of the FOIA]
C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed of
(b)(8) Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of
gift.
financial institutions [(b)(8) of the FOIA]
(b)(9) Release would disclose geological or geophysical information
PRM. Removed as a personal record misfile
05/21/90
15:54
003
of
(
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
STATES of /
The Assistant Secretary for Congressional
and Intergovernmental Affairs
Washington DC 20230
It is incumbent upon the Department of Commerce to respond to a
July, 1989 petition filed by the Northwest Independent Forest
Manufacturers who seek a finding under the Export Administration
Act that log exports are causing domestic short supply. The
Manufacturers seek to prohibit exports of unprocessed logs from
state lands in Oregon and Washington. [Current status: comment
period extended until 7/1/90.]
This is a highly divisive issue, involving private and government
interests at local, state and Federal levels. The sawmills and
wood processors support the petition, but the large log exporters,
the ports, labor unions and the Washington State lands agency
oppose it. Five federal agencies are involved (State, Commerce,
USTR, Agriculture, and Interior). Our attempts to act on the short
supply petition are complicated by a number of factors:
Spotted owl: In April 1990, a report of the Advisory
Committee of Interagency Scientists on the Spotted owl, which
advises Agriculture and Interior, recommended that the owl be
declared an endangered species. The Advisory Committee
reports are non-binding, but usually adopted. If the owl is
found to be an endangered species, approximately 2 billion
board feet of Federal timber in which the owl resides would
be set aside. This could result in the loss of 25,000 jobs.
[Status: Interior is expected to make a decision in June.]
Adams-Hatfield Amendment: The Adams-Hatfield amendment to the
FY 1990 Interior Appropriations bill (PL 101-121) directs the
Department of Agriculture to put into effect a conservation
management plan for the spotted owl, which would result in the
2 billion board feet reduction. [Status: plan must be in
effect by 9/30/90].
Packwood Amendment: This amendment, contained in the "mini-
trade bill" (H.R. 1594), as a response to this situation would
prohibit the export of logs from Federal and State lands in
Washington and Oregon. [Status: bill is in conference.]
Miller Amendment: This amendment, supported by the entire
delegations of Oregon and Washington (including Speaker Foley)
would prohibit timber exports from all Federal and State lands
except Washington State where it limits exports to 25%. We
feel this is the provision with the best chance of enactment.
There is consensus through the Trade Policy Review Group that
we will not take a position on pending bills. [Status:
provision has been approved by three House Committees
(Agriculture, Interior and Foreign Affairs) either as a
separate bill or an amendment to other legislation].
75 Years Stimulating America's Progress * 1913-1988
004
05/21/90
15:54
Conclusion: The ultimate action on the short supply question lies
within the jurisdiction of the Commerce Secretary, although the
factors outlined above have a crucial relationship. It is apparent
that if one or more of the above transpires, we would be forced to
make a finding of short supply, an action which could lead to
restrictions of unprocessed timber exports from private lands, as
well as public.
This issue demands close scrutiny and inter-agency coordination due
to the severe economic dislocation which might be caused by any
such actions, and the current congressional debate.
SLADE GORTON
COMMITTEES:
WASHINGTON
AGRICULTURE
730 HART SENATE OFFICE BUILDING
ARMED SERVICES
(202) 224-3441
United States Senate
COMMERCE, SCIENCE,
AND TRANSPORTATION
WASHINGTON, DC 20510-4701
INDIAN AFFAIRS
Date: May 17, 1990
To: Governor Sununu
From: Slade Gorton
Subject: The President's message on the Spotted Owl crisis
On Saturday (May 19) a timber rally will be held in Kelso
Washington to focus attention on the potential job losses related
to the proposed Spotted Owl set asides. People from five
Northwest states will attend. The crowd size is expected to be
between 10,000 - 20,000. I suggest that the President send a
telegram indicating his awareness of their plight.
Suggested telegram:
You are gathered here today to make a loud, clear statement to
your elected leaders about the importance of your jobs, your
families, your communities, and your way of life. I want you to
know I share your values, and I will do everything I can to help.
I don't believe that we face an all-or-nothing choice. We can
save the Spotted Owl, and we will. But America must not abandon
you, or decimate a vital industry. People and families and
communities will always rank first with me.
Thank you for being in Kelso today. We can thank God that we
live in America where you are free to have your voice heard. I
hear your voice."
The telegram should be sent to:
Sherrie Dailey, c/o Kelso Police Department 101 South Fourth -
Kelso, Washington 98626
Speech in Portland
The President will be in Portland Oregon on May 21. I
suggest that he address the Spotted Owl crisis at that time.
I
believe that this is a unique opportunity to do two important
things. First, given the visibility of this issue today he can
cement a large constituency of blue collar, working people in the
Northwest. I have told you that I believe that this issue has
the potential to realign partisan loyalties in the Northwest.
Second, I believe that by speaking in Portland the President can
redefine the debate from one of just owls vs. jobs.
3206 JACKSON FEDERAL BUILDING
130 FEDERAL BUILDING
697 U.S. COURT HOUSE
915 SECOND AVENUE
500 WEST 12TH STREET
W. 920 RIVERSIDE AVENUE
SEATTLE, WA 98174
VANCOUVER, WA 98660
SPOKANE, WA 99201
(206) 442-0350
(206) 696-7838
(509) 353-2507
Governor Sununu
May 17, 1990
Page 2
Finally, please note that these suggested remarks are more
detailed than the President may wish to use; I felt this would be
easier to edit than to expand.
Suggested theme for President's speech:
I know that the Northwest faces a crisis. You face a crisis
because of the national debate over the proper use of the
Northwest's forests. One group in this debate are people who
care about the preservation of old growth forests, the prime
Spotted Owl habitat. Another group in the debate are those
people whose living depends on productive jobs in the forest
products sector.
It is important to remember that these two groups, as important
as they are, are not the only people who will be affected by the
resolution of this issue. We all have a stake in how we manage
our national forests. Timber harvested from our northwest
national forests represents almost half of the lumber produced
here. That lumber provides renewable, biodegradable products for
people all over America.
Perhaps most important is the fact that northwest lumber provides
the basic material for housing. If we shut down timber
production from our national forests housing throughout the
nation will become less affordable.
Some people have compared cutting trees in the Northwest to
stripping the rainforests in South America or SouthEast Asia. We
must understand that in the Pacific Northwest, forests, when
harvested, are replanted. The law requires replanting. That is
why a strong forest products industry still thrives here after
more than 100 years of timber harvesting.
But, the issue of the rainforests in South America and Southeast
Asia raises an important point. If we stop harvesting trees here
in the Northwest, where trees are replanted for future
generations, where will the world get its supplies of forest
products? The answer is that if we stop harvesting trees here in
the Northwest, more lumber will be produced in places where
replanting does not take place.
It is our policy to preserve millions of acres of old growth
forests forever. Over 40% of the Northwest's prime old growth,
Spotted Owl habitat, representing millions of acres, is already
preserved forever in our National Parks and Wilderness areas.
These forests will never be used for commercial timber harvest.
These forests will be preserved forever.
Today this issue is brought to a crisis by the Thomas committee's
proposal to set aside 8.4 million acres of land in order to
expand the numbers and range of the Spotted Owl. That propsal
recommends that areas be set aside which have never been
inhabited by Spotted Owls. They would be set aside in the hope
Governor Sununu
May 17, 1990
Page 3
that someday owls may live there. The proposal would mean the
loss of jobs of as many as 35,000 working people. I said two
weeks ago that we need to find a balance between saving the
Spotted Owl and old growth forests and keeping jobs and a healthy
forest products industry. I am not going to walk away from the
working people of the Northwest.
We need to find a position that finds a "harmony" between the
desire of Americans for preservation of species and forest
ecosystems and the needs of working Americans for employment and
community stability.
Americans will not tolerate, and I will not allow, the Spotted
Owl to become extinct. But I also care about the children of the
families who depend on a healthy forest products industry.
I allow the destruction of jobs for 35,000 working people in the
Northwest. That would bring disaster. Economic dislocation of
that magnitude would bring suffering to families, children and
communities. The fabric of our social service network would be
stretched to the breaking point. State and local funds for
education and children would decline. Everyone in the Northwest
would feel the consequences.
We can find an answer to this crisis that preserves the Spotted
Owl from extinction and preserves a way of life for families and
communities.
I must have the help of Congress to meet this crisis. With the
leadership of Mark Hatfield, Slade Gorton, Bob Packwood and
others in Congress we can find the answer to this crisis. Of
Course, this will need the bipartisan support of Congress
including Speaker Foley, Les Aucoin and Norm Dicks.
Withdrawal/Redaction Sheet
(George Bush Library)
Document No.
Subject/Title of Document
Date
Restriction
Class.
and Type
02a. Memo
From Bob Packwood to John Sununu
5/11/90
Re: Log Export Bill (1 pp.)
Collection:
Record Group:
Bush Presidential Records
Open on Expiration of PRA
Office:
Chief of Staff, White House Office of
(Document Follows)
Series:
Sununu, John, Files
By
If
(NLGB)
on
5/12/05
Subseries:
Issues Files
WHORM Cat.:
File Location:
Spotted Owl (1990) [2]
Date Closed:
12/13/2004
OA/ID Number:
29172-003
FOIA/SYS Case #:
1998-0004-F[1]
Appeal Case #:
Re-review Case #:
2005-0426-S
Appeal Disposition:
P-2/P-5 Review Case #:
Disposition Date:
AR Case #:
MR Case #:
AR Disposition:
MR Disposition:
AR Disposition Date:
MR Disposition Date:
RESTRICTION CODES
Presidential Records Act - [44 U.S.C. 2204(a)]
Freedom of Information Act - [5 U.S.C. 552(b)]
P-1 National Security Classified Information [(a)(1) of the PRA]
(b)(1) National security classified information [(b)(1) of the FOIA]
P-2 Relating to the appointment to Federal office [(a)(2) of the PRA]
(b)(2) Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of an
P-3 Release would violate a Federal statute [(a)(3) of the PRA]
agency [(b)(2) of the FOIA]
P-4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or
(b)(3) Release would violate a Federal statute [(b)(3) of the FOIA]
financial information [(a)(4) of the PRA]
(b)(4) Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial
P-5 Release would disclose confidential advice between the President
information [(b)(4) of the FOIA]
and his advisors, or between such advisors [a)(5) of the PRA]
(b)(6) Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of
P-6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of
personal privacy [(b)(6) of the FOIA]
personal privacy [(a)(6) of the PRA]
(b)(7) Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement
purposes [(b)(7) of the FOIA]
C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed of
(b)(8) Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of
gift.
financial institutions [(b)(8) of the FOIA]
(b)(9) Release would disclose geological or geophysical information
PRM. Removed as a personal record misfile
BOB PACKWOOD
OREGON
141064
United States Senate
Guidance
WASHINGTON, DC 20510
May 11, 1990
The Honorable John Sununu
Chief of Staff
The White House
Washington, D.C. 20510
Dear John:
You asked for a short memo on my log
export bill.
In my judgment, not only is the
substance of the bill good, but it is
certainly a winner politically for the
administration.
Sincerely,
Bob
BOB PACKWOOD
0
Withdrawal/Redaction Sheet
(George Bush Library)
Document No.
Subject/Title of Document
Date
Restriction
Class.
and Type
02b. Memo
From Bob Packwood to John Sununu
5/11/90
P-5
Re: Log Exports (4 pp.)
Collection:
Record Group:
Bush Presidential Records
Open on Expiration of PRA
Office:
Chief of Staff, White House Office of
(Document Follows)
Series:
Sununu, John, Files
By
H
(NLGB)
on
5/12/05
Subseries:
Issues Files
WHORM Cat.:
File Location:
Spotted Owl (1990) [2]
Date Closed:
12/13/2004
OA/ID Number:
29172-003
FOIA/SYS Case #:
1998-0004-F[1]
Appeal Case #:
Re-review Case #:
2005-0426-S
Appeal Disposition:
P-2/P-5 Review Case #:
Disposition Date:
AR Case #:
MR Case #:
AR Disposition:
MR Disposition:
AR Disposition Date:
MR Disposition Date:
RESTRICTION CODES
Presidential Records Act - [44 U.S.C. 2204(a)]
Freedom of Information Act - [5 U.S.C. 552(b)]
P-1 National Security Classified Information [(a)(1) of the PRA]
(b)(1) National security classified information [(b)(1) of the FOIA]
P-2 Relating to the appointment to Federal office [(a)(2) of the PRA]
(b)(2) Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of an
P-3 Release would violate a Federal statute [(a)(3) of the PRA]
agency [(b)(2) of the FOIA]
P-4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or
(b)(3) Release would violate a Federal statute [(b)(3) of the FOIA]
financial information [(a)(4) of the PRA]
(b)(4) Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial
P-5 Release would disclose confidential advice between the President
information [(b)(4) of the FOIA]
and his advisors, or between such advisors [a)(5) of the PRA]
(b)(6) Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of
P-6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of
personal privacy [(b)(6) of the FOIA]
personal privacy [(a)(6) of the PRA]
(b)(7) Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement
purposes [(b)(7) of the FOIA]
C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed of
(b)(8) Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of
gift.
financial institutions [(b)(8) of the FOIA]
(b)(9) Release would disclose geological or geophysical information
PRM. Removed as a personal record misfile.
May 11, 1990
MEMO
FROM:
SENATOR PACKWOOD
TO:
JOHN SUNUNU
SUBJECT: LOG EXPORTS
This memorandum responds to your request for
additional information on my log export bill.
As you know, the Northwest faces a crippling
economic blow if the spotted owl is listed as an
endangered species. This threat has galvanized
public opinion in support of banning log exports
from federal and state lands.
Events have moved very quickly. On April 24,
the Senate added my log export amendment to the
CBI bill, 81-17. Since then, similar log export
bills have been approved by the House Committees
on Foreign Affairs, Interior and Agriculture. In
substance, the bills would:
1. Make permanent the current ban on log
exports from federal lands in the western
states;
1 of 4
2. Tighten the rules on circumventing the
federal ban; and
3. With respect to state lands 1 in the
western states, either:
a. authorize the states to ban log
exports from state lands (Packwood
amendment); or
b. require the states to ban all log
exports from state lands (with a 75
percent ban for Washington State)
(House bill).
The conference on the CBI bill (including log
exports) begins next week. We'll have to address
a number of technical issues, but I'm confident
the substance of the bill I've described above
1
A 1984 Supreme Court decision precludes the
states from banning log exports absent an explicit
Congressional authorization.
2 of 4
will remain intact and be sent to the President
for his signature. I strongly urge the President
to sign it, for the following reasons:
1. States' rights: States should be able to
decide what to do with their own timber -
- just like the federal government and
private timberland owners are able to
decide what to do with their timber.
(If the Administration opposes different
states having different policies, I'd be amenable
to a federally mandated ban, as in the House bill)
2. Environment: This bill is strongly
supported by all the national
environmental groups.
3. Non-protectionist, GATT-consistent: The
bill is consistent with U.S. obligations
under the General Agreement on Tariffs
and Trade, which permits "conservation of
exhaustible natural resources "
3 of 4
4. Pacific Northwest: This is an issue of
profound political and economic
importance to the Pacific Northwest. The
President will likely hear an earful when
he's in Portland May 21.
5. Veto-proof: It would be impossible to
sustain a veto of this bill, which is
strongly supported by a broad coalition
of the timber industry,
environmentalists, and organized labor.
6. This bill is extremely important to me
personally.
John, I hope you can help me on this one.
Please call if you have any questions.
4 of 4
Withdrawal/Redaction Sheet
(George Bush Library)
Document No.
Subject/Title of Document
Date
Restriction
Class.
and Type
03a. Memo
From David Bates to John Sununu
5/14/90
P-5
Re: Northern Spotted Owl (5 pp.)
Collection:
Record Group:
Bush Presidential Records
Office:
Chief of Staff, White House Office of
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Spotted Owl (1990) [2]
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29172-003
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1998-0004-F[1]
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Re-review Case #:
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RESTRICTION CODES
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THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
May 14, 1990
MEMORANDUM FOR GOVERNOR SUNUNU
FROM:
DAVID Q. BATES
ware
SUBJECT:
Northern Spotted Owl
This memorandum and its attachments are intended: (1) to provide
background on the possible listing of the northern spotted owl as
threatened under the Endangered Species Act (ESA); (2) to outline
federal actions that are required by the ESA or that may be
contemplated in connection with listing the owl as threatened;
and (3) to request your guidance regarding implementation of an
appropriate process for managing this issue.
The Owl and its Habitat -- Old-Growth Forests.
The northern spotted owl lives primarily in old-growth forests
located in Washington, Oregon and northern California. The
listing decision would primarily affect rural communities in
those states, and particularly in Oregon. A decision to list the
owl would affect timber sales on land held by the Agriculture and
Interior departments and possibly affect timber harvests on
private lands. Listing of the owl as a threatened species is
considered all but certain.
The controversy over the owl is considered by some a "stalking
horse" for a larger effort to preserve old-growth timber in the
Pacific Northwest and an example of a new tactic of
environmentalists -- seeking to identify a species that could be
eligible for protection under the ESA and using it as a tool to
influence federal multiple-use land management.
Chronology of Critical Dates and Decisions.
The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) has proposed to list the
spotted owl as a threatened species under the ESA. Benchmark
dates and decisions include:
O
June 23, 1989. Publication of a FWS rule proposing to list
the owl as a threatened species under the ESA. The final
decision on whether to list the owl must be based solely on
biological evidence and will not take into account the
economic effects of the listing.
2
Fall 1989. Establishment by Congress of a temporary fix to
the owl and old-growth controversy and the litigation
surrounding federal timber sales in the Pacific Northwest.
In section 318 of last year's appropriation for the Interior
Department, Congress: (a) provided for continued timber
harvests at reduced levels for FY 1990; (b) mandated
establishment of an interagency scientific committee (the
"Thomas Committee") to gather information about the owl and
propose a conservation plan; and (c) required USDA to
establish before the end of FY 1990 a conservation plan to
preserve the owl.
April 4, 1989. Release of the Thomas Committee report. The
interagency committee, chaired by Jack Ward Thomas, included
representatives from the FWS, U.S. Forest Service (USFS),
Bureau of Land Management (BLM), and National Park Service
(NPS).
April 4. Secretaries Lujan and Yeutter commissioned an
interdepartmental committee to assess the economic effects
of implementing the Thomas Committee report.
May 3. Release of the Interior-USDA report, "Economic
Effects of Implementing a Conservation Strategy for the
Northern Spotted Owl." USDA and Interior staff briefed
appropriate Members of Congress on the report.
June 1 (approximately). Deadline by which USDA must publish
a notice of proposed rulemaking to implement the section 318
requirement for a USFS conservation plan. If the FWS elects
to list the owl under the ESA, the USDA conservation plan is
rendered moot. It is anticipated that the USDA conservation
plan, which would not apply to BLM or private lands, will
resemble the plan recommended by the Thomas Committee.
June 23. Deadline for FWS listing decision. The ESA
provides for a possible six-month delay of the final
decision if the scientific data is incomplete or
conflicting, which in this instance is very unlikely. A
one-month "cooling off period" is provided under federal law
before the decision is implemented.
July 23. Implementation of the listing decision. Private
civil suits, however, may effectively stop logging in the
owl habitat immediately following the June 23 listing
announcement.
ESA Requirements Subsequent to a Listing.
If the owl is listed, FWS must develop a temporary conservation
plan that would provide for protection of the owl. It is
3
anticipated that within a year FWS would put into place a
permanent conservation plan to provide for recovery of the owl.
The Thomas Committee report is a plan for protection, not
recovery. It is reasonable to expect that the initial FWS
conservation plan would incorporate the broad features of the
Thomas Committee plan and that the economic effects of the
initial plan would roughly track the data released on May 3 by
the Interior and Agriculture Departments. The permanent
conservation plan would, however, impose an even more restrictive
standard for preservation of old-growth forests and would have
higher economic costs.
The Interior Department anticipates that the preliminary economic
effects of a listing would be felt quickly, within a matter of
weeks after July 23. Interior anticipates that an ESA listing
would supplant projected timber contracts within the owl's
habitat.
The ESA does contain provision for appeal to the Endangered
Species Committee could consider economic variables. This
committee, described at Tab 2, pages 3-4, is comprised of the
Secretaries of Interior (who serves as chairman), Agriculture and
the Army, the Administrators of EPA and NOAA, the Chairman of
CEA, and representatives of the affected states. The committee
can exempt federal actions (e.g., timber sales) from the
provisions of the ESA and has broader discretion than FWS to take
note of economic factors. Such committees have rendered
decisions in only two situations since passage of the ESA,
exempting the Grayrocks Dam in Wyoming (involving the whooping
crane) and denying an exemption for the Tellico Dam in Tennessee
(involving the snail darter), although Congress subsequently
reversed the committee's decision regarding the Tellico Dam.
The Endangered Species Committee cannot, however, provide a
quick, comprehensive plan to mitigate the economic effects of a
listing; it may take up to nine months for an appeal to be
referred to the committee and resolved by it.
Economic Effects of a Listing.
The economic effects of implementing a conservation plan similar
to the Thomas Committee recommendation are summarized at Tab 1,
pages 8-9 and described fully in the document contained at Tab 3.
In short, under the Thomas Committee plan federal timber harvests
in the Pacific Northwest would decrease 48 percent by 1995. This
would result in a loss of 13,000 jobs by 1995 and 28,000 jobs by
2000 (this is premised on an offsetting increase in timber
harvests on private lands, but this could be jeopardized due to
possible restrictions on private lands if the owl is listed). It
4
would also result in lost annual revenues to the federal Treasury
of $229 million by 2000, and lost annual federal timber payments
to states and counties of $95 million by 2000. To repeat, the
final conservation plan would likely impose greater restrictions
on timber sales than the Thomas Committee recommendations.
Higher economic costs are therefore likely.
On a national basis, much of the adverse regional impact would be
offset from federal and private timber harvest increases in non-
old-growth areas in response to higher stumpage prices. See Tab
1, pages 8-9 for additional discussion.
Options for Mitigating the Effects of a Listing.
As you know, Washington Governor Booth Gardner has written to the
President about the owl listing. He advises a gradual phase-in
of a conservation plan, which may require Congressional amendment
of the ESA, and a partial restriction on the export of logs from
state lands. He is also developing an economic recovery plan for
which we do not yet have details or cost estimates. Initial
Congressional planning covers a wide range of options. It is
likely the President will be questioned closely about this issue
on his trip to Portland on May 21. The spotted owl has been a
significant campaign issue in the Oregon Governor's race.
There is no simple short-term solution to this issue. The ESA
affords the Administration no significant room to maneuver before
June 23. There are several possible approaches to this issue:
Attempt administratively to phase-in a conservation plan
over several years and cushion the effect of the listing.
It is unlikely this approach would withstand court
challenge.
Allow the consultation process required under the ESA to go
forward and look to the Endangered Species Committee to
craft a compromise policy solution.
Let Congress decide how to mitigate the economic effects of
a listing. Congressional inaction would produce significant
short-term economic dislocations in the region, but
Congressional action could ultimately prove quite expensive
and include provisions unacceptable to the Administration.
Develop an Administration program to mitigate the effects a
listing, which might include extended unemployment benefits,
retraining and readjustment assistance, increased family
support, economic development grants and loans, or increased
federal timber payments to the affected areas. Such a
program might also include a ban on timber exports (although
this could run counter to trade commitments).
5
Seek amendments to the ESA to provide limited exemptions to
the act for the spotted owl.
The ESA itself presents a broader policy question of whether the
Administration should support amendments to allow greater weight
to economic effects of making listing decisions or other
modifications. Reauthorization of the ESA is scheduled for 1993.
There are hundreds of species currently under consideration for
listing under the ESA. Although few of those listing decisions
would result in the serious consequences faced here, they present
the potential for recurrent battles over specific projects (such
as the Animas-La Plata water project in southwestern Colorado,
which has just been delayed) and, as noted above, the opportunity
for environmentalists to seek control of federal development and
land management policy.
At the same time, it must be noted that the ESA is viewed as
sacrosanct by the environmental community and any attempt to
amend its provisions would result in a very heated political
battle. Proof of this was afforded Friday in an ABC Evening News
report of a remark in Colorado by Lujan that the ESA may need
fine tuning. ABC carried a strong denunciation of Lujan's view
by environmental and Congressional spokesmen. Over the weekend
Secretary Lujan's statements on the ESA were widely reported (see
Tab 4).
Decisions.
This paper has not aimed to lay out all options, only to provide
an introduction to this issue. If the Administration elects to
undertake a broader assessment of the ESA, a Domestic Policy
Council review may be appropriate. That work could include an
assessment of the numerous pending ESA actions.
In the short run, you may find it useful to assemble senior White
House staff to review this issue and chart options. A
preliminary meeting could, if you want, include Secretaries Lujan
and Yeutter. Lujan and Yeutter hope to meet together on this
issue next week, but Yeutter is out of the country until
Thursday.
Attachments
Prepared by OMB
MAY
8 1990
BACKGROUND ON THE NORTHERN SPOTTED OWL AND OLD-GROWTH FORESTS
The controversy surrounding the northern spotted owl is much
more than the decline in the owl's population. It represents
the merging of two important issues to the environmental
community -- each of which alone is a bellwether issue, but
combined represent a decision that will determine the direction
of environmental and preservation movements in the Pacific
Northwest for years to come. It is the merger of those forces
dedicated to the protection of old-growth forests and those
dedicated to the protection of threatened or endangered species.
At the heart of this movement, and the greatest risk posed
by it, is the overarching purpose to attack the policy of
"multiple-use management" on public lands. Similar to the
wilderness battles of the 1970s and 1980s, the environmental
community has chosen old growth and spotted owls as the latest
tools in their attempt to constrain use of Federal natural
resources and move the multiple-use management of the national
forests toward the singular, preservation philosophy most
consistent with the National Park Service (NPS).
Old-Growth Forests
The Pacific Northwest contains large stands of old-growth
timber, typically associated with Douglas-fir forests that are
more than 200 years old (and are known to be as old as 800
years), stand over 150 feet high and are at least 32 inches in
diameter. They are the last remaining "original" forests in the
United States. Original stands in the East, South, and
Southeast have usually been fully harvested at least twice, or
lost to fire. The Pacific Northwest has been protected from
fire by the moist climate of that area. Large fires are rare
and usually short-lived in this region.
As an economic resource, species like Douglas-fir are
typically harvested between 40-80 years, which represent the
years of their most vigorous growth. Growth slows considerably
after 100 years. Therefore, old-growth stands are not a
"renewable" resource. Once harvested, their replacement will
not occur as a matter of resource economics. In the South,
trees may be harvested between 25 and 50 years after being
planted.
Since most remaining old-growth stands are now on Federal
(and to a lesser extent State and private) lands managed by
Interior and Agriculture, the struggle between those dedicated
to preserving old growth and those dedicated to the economic use
of a natural resource is being played out in the courts,
principally under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA).
The environmental community most frequently cites the
relationship between old-growth forests and biological diversity
as the reason behind their cause. Federal lands, and
particularly Forest Service lands, significantly contribute to
the conservation of biological diversity through the protection
of species whose habitats elsewhere have been disrupted or
eliminated. In this respect, old-growth stands on Federal land
represent a sanctuary for those species dependent on that
community type. These stands may be the last remaining refuge
for some species, an important addition to the habitat of
others, or simply the most productive lands remaining for
currently widespread species.
While majestic and beautiful, the old-growth forests are
also the most economic to harvest. Their immense size yields
high quality and quantities of wood fiber and pulp, and yield
the greatest economic return on a board foot basis.
Needless to say, the Pacific Northwest is one of the few
areas in which Federal timber harvests reap significant net
revenues -- so great in fact that it more than offsets the
significant losses the Federal Government incurs in most other
timber harvests nationwide.
Also, the Pacific Northwest timber communities, almost all
of which are rural, are hardly disinterested observers of this
longstanding battle. They receive 25 percent of all gross
receipts from a harvest from Forest Service land (50 percent
from Bureau of Land Management (BLM) lands) and have local
economies that are based on timber production. Education and
highway programs in these communities are financed for the most
part by shared timber receipts.
The preservation versus economic use of the remaining old-
growth stands has been and will continue to be a struggle. Its
emotional significance should not be underestimated at the local
and national level. The environmental community has waged an
intensive battle in the courts: forest-by-forest and harvest-
by-harvest.
Overall, environmental groups have been highly successful
tying up planned harvests for years or overturning forest plans
completely. NEPA has been a very useful tool for them.
However, this intensity has also fostered more radical, violent
efforts to preserve old-growth stands, in the form of groups
like Earth First. In large measure due to environmental group
litigation and political clout, the old-growth stands in the
Pacific Northwest are hardly in jeopardy of disappearing. Of an
estimated 6.2 million acres of Forest Service old-growth stands,
3.2 million acres are now set aside in wilderness or other
protected areas, and are no longer available for harvest.
-2-
The Northern Spotted Owl
To this already contentious issue, we must now add the
northern spotted owl, whose range includes, almost exclusively,
old-growth forest:
There are three subspecies of spotted owls: northern,
California, and Mexican. The northern subspecies
occurs only in Washington, Oregon, northern California,
and part of British Columbia.
The northern spotted owl is a medium-sized owl with
dark brown coloring, whitish spots on the head and
neck, and white mottling on the abdomen and breast.
Mostly nocturnal, it forages in forests on small
mammals such as squirrels, mice, and woodrats. During
the day, it roosts in trees, frequently close to the
nest site.
Pairs of owls tend to occupy the same territory for
years as long as suitable habitat is present. One to
three eggs, usually two, are laid in March or April.
The female incubates the eggs and broods the young,
while the male provides most of the food.
Before the early 1970s, little was known about the
spotted owl in the Pacific Northwest, except that it
was a resident of a variety of forest types. Early
research indicated an association with mature and
old-growth forests. Recent research has determined
that owls are found primarily in old-growth forests
that have never been logged, and that owl numbers are
declining in areas subjected to considerable harvest.
Population trends from the 1970s to the present are not
available. Current estimates indicate that there are
between 2,000 and 3,000 pairs of owls. Extrapolation
from the numerous scientific studies suggests that
eliminating old-growth forests generally results in a
decrease in northern spotted owl population. No study
has reached an opposite conclusion. In fact, the
correlation is so high that the northern spotted owl is
considered by the Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) as an
indicator species for the health of old-growth forests.
Based on the bulk of observed scientific data, the
northern spotted owl needs old-growth forests for two
reasons: (1) The owls nest in the old-growth trees
with large cavities and broken tops; and (2) old-growth
forests' high canopy provides essential protection from
natural predators while the owls hunt for mice and
woodrats. For example, the great horned owl is a
predator of juvenile northern spotted owls.
-3-
The principal environmental groups that have been active in
litigation include the Audubon Society, Oregon Natural Resources
Council, Sierra Club, Wilderness Society, and Natural Resources
Defense Council. The legal arguments are that the Federal land
management agencies are in violation of NEPA, the Migratory Bird
Treaty Act, the Federal Land Policy and Management Act, the
National Forest Management Act, and the Oregon and California
Grant Lands Act. The legal relief being sought is compliance
with those statutes through completion of adequate EISs and
planning guidelines. Administrative actions challenging
specific plans and protests on specific sales have also been
used as a tool to protect the northern spotted owl as well as
old-growth forests.
Interior Response to the Northern Spotted Owl Issue
In 1982, the FWS undertook its first status review of the
species and began an intensive biological evaluation of the owl,
its habitat and the number of mating pairs in existence.
Monitors were put in place, captured birds were equipped with
signal emitters, and the Forest Service, BLM, and the NPS poured
funds and personnel into spotting, tracking, recording, and
understanding the bird.
After six years, the FWS prepared an assessment for release
to the public in October 1988. However, prior to its release,
then Interior's Assistant Secretary for Fish, Wildlife and
Parks, Becky Norton-Dunlop, changed many of the scientific
findings and deleted some data and replaced it with other data
that, in combination, downplayed the threat to the owl and
caused the FWS not to list the owl as threatened or endangered.
Also, James Cason, then Interior's Deputy Assistant Secretary
for Land and Minerals Management, which includes the BLM, argued
strongly against the scientists about the need to protect the
owl as threatened.
Without commenting on the merits of the arguments, it is
obvious that the scientific community, FWS staff, the
environmental community, and Congress were very concerned about
the changes made to the FWS Report.
Current Status
Four related actions resulted after the decision by Interior to
overturn the FWS recommendations:
Additional regional litigation in Federal court against
BLM and the Forest Service essentially shut down timber
sales in western Washington and Oregon due to the
northern spotted owl.
-4-
The U.S. District Court for the Western District of
Washington in Seattle held that the decision by the FWS
not to list was arbitrary and capricious, and directed
the FWS to undertake a supplemental status review for
the species and to complete a new finding. This
judicial order led to a decision by the FWS to "seek
threatened status" for the northern spotted owl in June
1989.
The FWS 1989 notice of intent to list the northern
spotted owl as a threatened species throughout the owl's
range in turn triggered a one-year evaluation and
comment period under the Endangered Species Act (ESA).
A final listing decision is required by June 23, 1990.
It is only possible to extend the deadline by six months
if the available scientific data is incomplete or
conflicting, which in this instance is very unlikely.
Because the environmentalists had been successful in
shutting down timber sales, Congress included a
short-term fix to the old-growth issue in the FY 1990
Interior Appropriations Act. In that Act, Section 318
mandated a specific timber sale volume to be offered by
Forest Service and BLM in FY 1989-90 and limited
judicial review. Section 318 also directed that an
independent, interagency scientific committee (ISC) be
established to make recommendations on an appropriate
protection level for the owl.
The ISC Report
The ISC Report "A Conservation Strategy for the Northern
Spotted Owl" was released on April 4, 1990. The scientific
committee concluded that the owl is imperiled over significant
portions of its range where logging and natural disturbances
have significantly reduced the amount of suitable old-growth
habitat. The ISC recommended establishing a network of large
blocks of habitat to be protected from disturbance. These
habitat blocks, called Habitat Conservation Areas (HCAs), would
generally be capable of supporting up to 20 pairs of spotted
owls and range from 50 acres to 145, acres in size. The
resulting impact of these quasi-wilderness areas would reduce
harvest levels on Forest Service and BLM lands by approximately
50 percent over current planned levels.
The principal impact of the ISC Report will be felt by the
Forest Service which, pursuant to the FY 1990 Appropriations Act
must, in effect, adopt some plan that is reasonably close to the
ISC's recommendations. Specifically, under Section 318, the
-5-
Forest Service is required to use the ISC recommendations to
review and revise its guidance for preparation of Forest
Management Plans by September 30, 1990. This guidance would
outline direction for the management of the northern spotted owl
relative to planned timber sales, and, in essence, locks the
Forest Service into implementing the ISC strategy or something
very close to it.
The BLM, however, is not legally bound to the ISC report and
BLM's Director has stated that BLM will reject its
recommendations as too burdensome on local economies.
Relative to the upcoming listing decision, the primary
influence of the ISC Report is not the HCAs but the scientific
conclusions it reached about the owl, and the extent to which
this report will reinforce or contradict other evidence
developed as part of the FWS analysis for the listing decision.
The ISC concluded that:
The northern spotted owl is imperiled over significant
portions of its range because of continuing losses of
habitat from logging and natural disturbances.
Current management strategies are inadequate to ensure
the viability of the owl.
By some estimates, the northern spotted owl habitat
area has been reduced by about 60 percent since 1800.
HCAs of varying sizes should be established, in which
disturbances to the owls' habitat would be limited.
If these recommendations are implemented, there is a
high probability of retaining a viable, well-
distributed population of northern spotted owls over
the next century.
The Listing Decision and its Implications
Under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), a species is
considered endangered when there is a high probability that the
species will become extinct if no action is taken. In turn, a
species is considered threatened if there is a high probability
the species will become endangered if no action is taken.
All indications are that the FWS believes the science is
unambiguous, and the high probability is that the owl will be
listed as a threatened species by June 23rd. Once the listing
is made, a series of events will be triggered:
-6-
1. Critical Habitat
At the time of listing, the FWS is required to make a
determination as to whether it will also designate "critical
habitat" for the species. A critical habitat determination is
based on the best scientific information available, taking into
account economic effects and other social factors. The FWS
could use the ISC Report to designate critical habitat, or make
its own independent determination. The FWS may exclude any area
from critical habitat if the economic or social benefits to the
local communities from an exclusion outweigh the benefits of
protecting the owl. The exclusion may not, however, result in a
jeopardy to the species.
If the FWS decides not to designate critical habitat areas,
it would instead review each and every Forest Service and BLM
management plan to ensure that a proposed action would not
jeopardize the existence of the owl.
2. Development of a Recovery Plan
The key element of a listing decision is the development of
a plan that will restore the species and allow it to be removed
from the "threatened" list. The HCAs recommended in the ISC
report might be used as a viable recovery plan, representing the
best science and most thorough effort, even though, in the short
run, a decline in population is expected under the HCAs. To
increase the population, however, even greater areas of
old-growth timber may have to be set aside. Therefore, the HCAs
in the ISC Report should be viewed as the minimum protection
level if the decision is made to list the species as threatened
and the ISC recommended strategy is not implemented.
3. Consultations
Under the ESA, Federal agencies must consult with the FWS,
to ensure that a proposed action will not jeopardize the
continued existence of the species. The FWS is required to
recommend a reasonable and prudent alternative to non-jeopardy.
Consultations occur frequently between the FWS and other Federal
agencies; in the vast majority of cases, the agencies work out
reasonable compromises.
4. Exemption Process
When consultation results in an impasse between a Federal
agency and the FWS, the agency can request an exemption from a
ruling by the FWS that the proposed action will threaten the
viability of the species. Under the ESA, an exemption decision
-7-
rests with a cabinet-level committee colloquially called the
"God Squad": the Secretaries of the Interior (Chairman),
Agriculture, and Army; the Administrator of NOAA; the
Administrator of EPA; the Chairman of CEA; and one individual
appointed by the President from each affected State. Under the
exemption process, economic factors can be used in the
determination to exempt a proposed project or action, but cannot
be the only factor considered.
There have been two instances in the past where the
committee has met on an exemption request. Both were Federal
dam projects: (1) the snail darter won at Tellico Dam (TN), and
(2) the whooping crane lost at Grayrocks Dam (WY) (although some
crane habitat concessions were required in granting that
exemption).
Economic Impacts of Protecting the Owl
After release of the ISC Report in April, Agriculture and
Interior prepared a follow-up report on the economic effects of
implementing the recommendations. The analysis of the economic
impacts was released on May 3, 1990.
The Agriculture/Interior report indicates that implementing
the ISC strategy would cause significant and widespread adverse
economic effects throughout the Pacific Northwest. A detailed
breakdown is attached but in summary,
Annual timber harvests from Federal lands would be
reduced by 2.4 billion board feet by 1995 (50 percent
below current projections).
Net job losses would be about 13,000 by 1995 (-25
percent) and 28,000 by 2000.
Net annual revenue losses to the Federal Government
would run about $150 million by 1995 (-19 percent),
inclusive of the effects of rising timber prices.
Federal Payments to States and Counties from shared
timber receipts would decline by about $65 million per
year by 1995.
About 80 percent of the reduction in receipts and other
adverse effects would occur in Oregon.
However, on a national basis, much of the adverse impact
will be offset from Federal and private timber harvest increases
in non-old-growth areas in response to higher stumpage prices.
The loss of timber is estimated to raise stumpage prices
nationwide during the next decade between 1-2 percent per year
in the near term, and are not expected to decline due to excess
demand until well past the year 2000.
-8-
Withdrawal/Redaction Sheet
(George Bush Library)
Document No.
Subject/Title of Document
Date
Restriction
Class.
and Type
03b. Paper
Background of Northern Spotted Owl Issue
5/8/90
5
Options paragraphs- redacted bottom of p. 9, all of p. 10 and
p. 11 (3 pp.)
Collection:
Record Group:
Bush Presidential Records
Office:
Chief of Staff, White House Office of
Open on Expiration of PRA
Series:
Sununu, John, Files
(Document Follows)
Subseries:
Issues Files
By H (NLGB) on 5/12/05
WHORM Cat.:
File Location:
Spotted Owl (1990) [2]
Date Closed:
12/13/2004
OA/ID Number:
29172-003
FOIA/SYS Case #:
1998-0004-F[1]
Appeal Case #:
Re-review Case #:
2005-0426-S
Appeal Disposition:
P-2/P-5 Review Case #:
Disposition Date:
AR Case #:
MR Case #:
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Some of the effects of a rise in stumpage prices are:
Rising timber prices will help offset the decline in
Federal receipts by $350 million by 1995, as compared
with constant-price assumptions.
Private timber harvests will increase, up nearly 12
percent in the Pacific Northwest alone, at least through
1995.
Many currently below-cost timber harvests will become
profitable for the Federal Government for the first
time.
Shared receipts sharing from timber revenues for all
communities not affected by the set-asides of the HCAs
will significantly increase as a result of higher
stumpage prices, leaving many communities far better off
than under current conditions.
In addition, the adverse effects noted above do not assume a
ban on the export of logs. If the Federal ban is extended and
expanded to include State timber as well (as proposed in H.R.
1594, the so-called Mini Trade Bill and other stand-alone bills
dealing with log exports), the effect would be to add back an
estimated 2,000 jobs. If such a ban were extended to private
lands as well, an additional 13,000 jobs would be added, for an
estimated total gain of 15,000 jobs.
The Call for Compensation
Based on discussions with the FWS, of the hundreds of
candidate species awaiting listing under the ESA there are none
that would cause more than local economic dislocations.
Nevertheless, many small towns and timber mills will be severely
affected by the northern spotted owl listing, and calls for
economic and social mitigation programs are already being heard.
In fact, Agriculture and Interior have been working on some
options. No cost estimates are included, but the effect on the
deficit and trade policy could be significant. These options
run the gamut from trade restrictions, to family support, to
increased revenue sharing on remaining timber sales. Examples
include:
Put in place an export ban on all (private, State and
Federal) unprocessed timber in the Pacific Northwest.
Extend unemployment compensation benefits beyond the
current 26-week limit if the job is lost because of the
owl listing. It is similar in concept to the Byrd
Amendment to compensate miners that would lose jobs due
to the Acid Rain Amendments.
-9-
Provide retraining programs and other readjustment
services to dislocated workers.
Provide additional family support in the form of Aid to
Families with Dependent Children, Community Service
Block Grants, Emergency Community Services Homeless
Grants, and Low Income Home Energy Assistance.
Provide economic development grants and loans to
distressed communities or counties.
Raise National Forest receipt-sharing payments from 25
to 50 percent in affected areas.
Developing programs to protect the affected local
communities poses tremendous problems of both precedent and
practical implementation. For example:
The amount of old growth harvested will very likely
decline anyway -- due to successful intervention by the
environmental community to protect those trees. The
loss of these lands to harvest and the resulting impacts
on timber-dependent communities are inevitable even if
the Federal Government decides not to list the species
as threatened.
As with coal miners who might be affected by Acid Rain
Amendments, timber jobs in the Pacific Northwest are
constantly being lost due to productivity increases.
Since it will be impossible to determine which jobs were
lost solely due to the listing decision, only a
broad-based, very expensive compensation scheme would
work.
Many programs to aid dislocated workers already exist
and work, if used. Further, compensation programs tend
to preserve the status quo, not facilitate a transition,
for example, from timber harvesting to recreation
management.
Doubling the current share of Forest Service gross
receipts to 50 percent would reduce Federal receipts
ultimately arriving at the Treasury by as much as $300
million per year.
Once begun, the "me too" syndrome will be impossible to
avoid. Other local areas affected by other listing
decisions or even other similar Federal actions (Acid
Rain Amendments and Defense Department base closures)
will demand similar compensation.
-10-
Next Steps
It is our understanding that the Administration will very
shortly call a high-level meeting to determine if, and to what
extent, some of these measures should be proposed at the time a
listing decision is announced next month. Once listed, the
environmental community will move immediately to enjoin current
forest timber harvest plans and, for the first time, enjoin
private and State harvests as well. Because there is already a
limited amount of raw timber reportedly in the sale and
processing pipeline due to existing environmental litigation,
the effects of the decision might well be felt within the next
year. Hence, it will be argued, there is a need to move quickly
with a compensation program.
-11-
Prepared by the Department of the Interior
DRAFT 5/8/90 4:00pm
Memorandum
Subject: Executive Summary on the Northern Spotted Owl
I. BRIEF HISTORY
The Northern Spotted Owl Controversy
The northern spotted owl of Washington, Oregon and Northern
California lives primarily in dense, mature and old-growth
forests, commonly dominated by Douglas fir. The current
Northern Spotted Owl population is estimated to be
approximately 2,400 pairs. About 350 pairs are estimated to be
located on Bureau of Land Management (BLM) lands. National
Forest System lands have an estimated 270 pairs of owls on
wilderness and other reserved lands in Washington and Oregon,
and 1,020 pairs on other U.S. Forest Service (USFS) lands in
Washington, Oregon, and Northern California managed for
ownerships. multiple use purposes. The remaining owl pairs occur on other
Demands from some public sectors for preservation of old-growth
forests have increased since the 1970's. Since there are other
species besides the spotted owl that depend on old-growth
habitat, preservation of the spotted owl is viewed by some as
only the immediate focus of a larger controversy over
management of the Pacific Northwest old-growth forests.
Beginning in 1973, and continuing through the 1980's,
biologists from government agencies, universities, and private
groups developed and refined guidelines for managing spotted
owl habitat. BLM forest plans released in the early 1980's
already included provisions to exclude timber harvesting in the
each). immediate area surrounding owl nesting sites (around 300 acres
Key Events in the Northern Spotted Owl Listing Process
The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) received two petitions
in 1987 to list the owl as an endangered species. Following
"not warranted" findings on the petitions, environmental groups
filed suit against the FWS, charging political interference in
the decision.
In 1988, the Seattle District Court directed the FWS to
reanalyze and supplement its status review and petition
finding. The FWS found that listing the owl as threatened
list on June 23, 1989.
throughout its range was warranted, and published a proposal to
90. 05/08 17:28 P02 * DEPT CF INTERIOR
A committee composed of Fish and Wildlife Service scientists is
currently evaluating the biological status of the owl before a
final listing decision is made. The committee is reviewing
over 20,000 public comments that have been received.
By June 23, 1990, after review of all scientific evidence, the
FWS must either issue a final listing rule, withdraw its
proposal because evidence no longer supports listing, or extend
its evaluation for six months because of legitimate scientific
questions regarding the completeness or accuracy of information
upon which to base a decision.
II. CURRENT STATUS
Section 318
In response to court-ordered prohibitions on timber harvesting
and a policy stalemate, Section 318 of the FY 90 Interior
Appropriations Act (Public Law 101-121) was adopted to resolve
temporarily the timber controversy in Western Oregon. It
assures a stable level of timber offering for FY 90 yet
prescribes a level of protection for the spotted owl, including
the preservation of old growth habitat.
Interagency Scientific Committee Report ("Thomas Report")
An Interagency Agreement between the BLM, the FWS, the National
Park Service, and the USFS authorized establishment of a
Committee of scientists to re-evaluate the current management
status of the northern spotted owl. (This Committee is
separate from the listing decision committee.) The USFS and
BLM are directed by Section 318 to consider the the Committee's
report in their timber harvest planning.
After release of the Thomas Report in April 1990, the USFS and
the BLM established an interagency working group to study the
economic effects of adopting the proposals for protection of
the northern spotted owl as recommended in the report. The
BLM-USFS study shows that, overall, the declines in Federal
timber harvests in the Pacific Northwest would be 48 percent.
The reduction in Federal timber harvests is projected to cause
the net loss of 13,000 jobs in 1995 (when allowing for
offsetting timber harvest increases from private lands),
increasing to 28,000 lost jobs in the year 2000. Losses of
Federal timber payments to States and counties would equal $95
million annually by the year 2000--a decline of 30 percent, and
revenue losses to the Federal treasury would be $229 million
annually by 2000--a decline of 22 percent.
90. 05/08 17:28 P03 < DEPT OF INTERIOR
III. THE ENDANGERED SPECIES PROCESS
Listing Process
Under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), species are listed
solely on the basis of biological status. A listing is a rule,
and prior to listing, the FWS publishes a proposed rule in the
Federal Register. Within one year of the publication of a
proposed listing, the FWS must decide whether or not to list.
If there is substantial disagreement among scientists
knowledgeable about the proposed species regarding the
sufficiency or accuracy of the available data relevant to the
listing determination, the FWS Director can delay the final
listing decision for six months.
Prohibitions on Taking
Once listed, a species is broadly protected against "taking",
defined to mean to harass, harm, pursue, hunt, shoot, wound,
kill, trap, capture, or collect or to attempt to engage in any
such conduct. In particular, the ESA prohibits Federal
agencies from authorizing, funding, or carrying out any action
which is likely to jeopardize the continued existence of a
listed species or adversely affect its habitat.
Consultation Process
In order to fulfill its ESA responsibilities, a Federal agency
whose proposed actions may affect a listed species must first
consult with the FWS. During consultation, the FWS determines
the degree of impact, and the parties consider ways of
modifying the proposed action so that jeopardy to the species
can be avoided. The statutory deadline for completing
consultation is 90 days, although a 60-day extension
(renewable) is possible by mutual agreement of the parties. If
the FWS finds jeopardy, the Federal agencies must either apply
to the Endangered Species Committee for an exemption or abandon
the project.
Exemption Process - The Endangered Species ("God") Committee
If consultation results in a jeopardy opinion, an
administrative appeals process exists by which worthwhile
projects may be granted exemptions from the requirements of the
ESA. The Endangered Species Committee is charged with
considering all reasonable and prudent alternatives to the
proposed project which are consistent with conserving the
species. These alternatives are broader than those examined
during consultation, when only alternatives within the purview
of the action agency or the permit applicant could be examined.
At the exemption phase, the cost of conserving the species is
fully examined.
INTERIOR
31
1230
P04
82:21
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90.
Withdrawal/Redaction Sheet
(George Bush Library)
Document No.
Subject/Title of Document
Date
Restriction
Class.
and Type
03c. Paper
Executive Summary on the Northern Spotted Owl
05/08/90
P/S
Options paragraphs redacted bottom of p. 5, all of p. 6 and p.
7 (3 pp.)
Collection:
Record Group:
Bush Presidential Records
Office:
Chief of Staff, White House Office of
Open on Expiration of PRA
Series:
Sununu, John, Files
(Document Follows)
Subseries:
Issues Files
By
off
(NLGB)
on
5/12/05
WHORM Cat.:
File Location:
Spotted Owl (1990) [2]
Date Closed:
12/13/2004
OA/ID Number:
29172-003
FOIA/SYS Case #:
1998-0004-F[1]
Appeal Case #:
Re-review Case #:
2005-0426-S
Appeal Disposition:
P-2/P-5 Review Case #:
Disposition Date:
AR Case #:
MR Case #:
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MR Disposition:
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RESTRICTION CODES
Presidential Records Act - [44 U.S.C. 2204(a)]
Freedom of Information Act - [5 U.S.C. 552(b)]
P-1 National Security Classified Information [(a)(1) of the PRA]
(b)(1) National security classified information [(b)(1) of the FOIA]
P-2 Relating to the appointment to Federal office [(a)(2) of the PRA]
(b)(2) Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of an
P-3 Release would violate a Federal statute [(a)(3) of the PRA]
agency [(b)(2) of the FOIA]
P-4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or
(b)(3) Release would violate a Federal statute [(b)(3) of the FOIA]
financial information [(a)(4) of the PRA]
(b)(4) Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial
P-5 Release would disclose confidential advice between the President
information [(b)(4) of the FOIA]
and his advisors, or between such advisors [a)(5) of the PRA]
(b)(6) Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of
P-6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of
personal privacy [(b)(6) of the FOIA]
personal privacy [(a)(6) of the PRA]
(b)(7) Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement
purposes [(b)(7) of the FOIA]
C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed of
(b)(8) Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of
gift.
financial institutions [(b)(8) of the FOIA]
(b)(9) Release would disclose geological or geophysical information
PRM. Removed as a personal record misfile.
The Endangered Species Committee is a cabinet-level
administrative court, chaired by the Secretary of the Interior.
By statute, the other members of the Committee are the
Secretaries of Agriculture and the Army, the Administrators of
EPA and NOAA, the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors,
and a Presidential appointee nominated by the Governor (s) of
the affected State(s).
In order to grant an exemption the Endangered Species Committee
must find that:
0 There are no reasonable and prudent alternatives to the
proposed action;
O The benefits of the proposed action clearly outweigh
the benefits of alternative courses of action
consistent with conserving the species;
O The action is of national or regional significance and
is in the public interest.
In granting an exemption, the Endangered Species Committee
must establish reasonable mitigation measures. The time
required for the Endangered Species Committee to process an
exemption is 190 days.
Since 1978, there have been five applications for ESA
exemption. In three of these cases, the applicants
withdrew before completion of the process. In the other
two cases, the Committee issued an exemption to the
Grayrocks Dam and Reservoir (Nebraska) and denied an
exemption to the Tellico Dam and Reservoir (Tennessee).
Congress subsequently overrode the Tellico decision, and
ordered that the Dam be built.
IV. ALTERNATIVE COURSES OF ACTION
The following represent courses of action that the Federal
government could take, either individually or in
combination, to conserve the spotted owl and mitigate
economic impacts.
1. Hold Evidentiary Hearing Prior to Listing - The
Northwest Forest Resource Council, a trade organization
representing the timber industry, has requested that
the FWS convene a formal evidentiary hearing on the
listing process before reaching a decision on the owl's
data. listing to examine the scientific sufficiency of the
90. 05/08 17:28 P05 DEPT CF INTERIOR
2. Hold Evidentiary Hearing on Thomas Report - An
evidentiary hearing could be held to examine the
scientific research, data and conservation
recommendations of the Thomas Report. The results of
the hearing could then be used for BLM and USFS timber
planning, as part of the consultation process, or for
other purposes.
3. Invoke Six Month Extension Provision - Under the
provisions of Section 4 of the ESA, the Secretary could
order a six month extension of the period for making a
decision on listing the spotted owl as an endangered
species. This would extend the listing decision period
to December, 1990.
4. Legislative Resolution - Congress may choose to enact a
solution to the issue (either temporary or permanent),
for example, by applying the Section 318 concept to
apply on a longer term basis, or by choosing to
incorporate mitigative measures such as economic
assistance for affected parties.
5. Appeal to the Endangered Species Committee - If the owl
is listed, the Committee could fashion a policy
solution for preserving habitat that would reflect not
only the biological requirements of the species but
also the economic consequences of various policies.
6. Focus Concern on Old Growth - The major political issue
over timber harvest in the Pacific Northwest is the
preservation of old growth, not the spotted owl.
Strategies to focus planning on this management issue
could be developed.
7. Implement the Thomas Report - The Thomas Report could
be implemented either as a result of the listing of the
spotted owl, or as a USFS and BLM response to the
report.
8. Initiate a Phased Implementation of the Thomas Report -
The owl conservation actions recommended in the Thomas
Report could be implemented in phases over a period
that might be several years.
9. Develop a Contingency Plan to Use if Section 318
Expires - A contingency plan or strategy could be
developed as the basis for a proposal concerning timber
harvesting and owl protective measures to be instituted
when Section 318 expires on September 30 and if
Congress does not enact a successor provision.
10. Hold Evidentiary Hearing After Listing - A post-listing
hearing would be to evaluate scientific information as
a basis for making Section 7 consultations.
90. 05/08 17:28 P06 * DEPT CF INTERIOR
11. Streamline Aspects of the Consultation Process - The
current consultation process requires affected agencies
to submit proposals for FWS consideration after
listing. It may be possible to expedite the process
through a collaborative framework involving BLM, USFS,
and FWS. In developing such a framework, care would
have to be taken to ensure that the intent of the law
and regulations is met.
12. Develop Administration Position on Log Exports -
Interest in log export restrictions has increased since
the release of the Thomas Report. The joint BLM-USFS
report on the economic effects of implementing the
Thomas Report will further increase the pressure for
restrictions.
13. Economic Mitigation - Under existing authorizations,
the Administration could seek appropriations to help
mitigate loss of jobs and state/local revenues to
Washington/ Oregon/ Northern California.
90. 05/08 17:28 P07 * DEPT CF INTERIOR
Withdrawal/Redaction Sheet
(George Bush Library)
Document No.
Subject/Title of Document
Date
Restriction
Class.
and Type
04. Report
By USDA Forest Service, USDI Bureau of Land Management
5/1/90
Y-5
Re: Economic Effects of Implementing a Conservation
Strategy for the Northern Spotted Owl (64 pp.)
Collection:
Record Group:
Bush Presidential Records
Office:
Chief of Staff, White House Office of
Series:
Sununu, John, Files
Open on Expiration of PRA
Subseries:
Issues Files
(Document Follows)
WHORM Cat.:
By
IP
(NLGB)
on
5/12/05
File Location:
Spotted Owl (1990) [2]
Date Closed:
12/13/2004
OA/ID Number:
29172-003
FOIA/SYS Case #:
1998-0004-F[1]
Appeal Case #:
Re-review Case #:
2005-0426-S
Appeal Disposition:
P-2/P-5 Review Case #:
Disposition Date:
AR Case #:
MR Case #:
AR Disposition:
MR Disposition:
AR Disposition Date:
MR Disposition Date:
RESTRICTION CODES
Presidential Records Act - [44 U.S.C. 2204(a)]
Freedom of Information Act - [5 U.S.C. 552(b)]
P-1 National Security Classified Information [(a)(1) of the PRA]
(b)(1) National security classified information [(b)(1) of the FOIA]
P-2 Relating to the appointment to Federal office [(a)(2) of the PRA]
(b)(2) Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of an
P-3 Release would violate a Federal statute [(a)(3) of the PRA]
agency [(b)(2) of the FOIA]
P-4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or
(b)(3) Release would violate a Federal statute [(b)(3) of the FOIA]
financial information [(a)(4) of the PRA]
(b)(4) Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial
P-5 Release would disclose confidential advice between the President
information [(b)(4) of the FOIA]
and his advisors, or between such advisors [a)(5) of the PRA]
(b)(6) Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of
P-6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of
personal privacy [(b)(6) of the FOIA]
personal privacy [(a)(6) of the PRA]
(b)(7) Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement
purposes [(b)(7) of the FOIA]
C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed of
(b)(8) Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of
gift.
financial institutions [(b)(8) of the FOIA]
(b)(9) Release would disclose geological or geophysical information
PRM. Removed as a personal record misfile
Economic Effects
of
Implementing a Conservation Strategy
for the
Northern Spotted Owl
May 1, 1990
USDA Forest Service
USDI Bureau of Land Management
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
Executive Summary
01
Introduction
13
Economic Analysis
17
Timber Harvest Volume
19
Market Impacts of Alternative Federal Timber Flows
22
U.S. Roundwood Consumption Increasing
23
U.S. Product Demand
23
Costs and Technology
23
International Markets and Log Exports
23
Growth in Softwood Harvest is in the South
26
Total Pacific Coast Harvest Projected to Level Off After Decline in 2000
26
Industries Differ Between Washington/Oregon and California
26
Pacific Coast Must Compete With South and Canada
26
Fiber Products Industries Expanding
28
Log Exports Have Been a Growth Sector
28
Stumpage Prices Expected to Increase
28
Special Issues not Included in Analysis
28
Harvest by Ownership for Washington and Oregon
30
Effects of Changes in Assumptions
31
Scenarios and Combinations
34
General Economic Framework and Expected Economic Impacts
34
Economic Impacts
35
Regional and Local Effects
43
Background
43
Economic Areas
44
Employment Effects
45
Timber-based Revenues
49
Payments to Counties
49
General Effects on Counties and Communities
55
Social and Other Impacts
57
Summary of Economic Impacts and Implications for Mitigation Measures
58
Appendix
61
Maps of Dependent Communities and High Economic Impact Areas
Executive Summary
1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
In response to the findings of the Interagency Scientific Committee that was appointed to
study the northern spotted owl, the Secretaries of Agriculture and Interior, through the
Chief of the Forest Service and the Director of the Bureau of Land Management, formed
an interagency working group. The charge to this group was to analyze the economic
impacts of implementing the recommendations of the Interagency Scientific Committee.
ECONOMIC IMPACT
The analysis of economic impacts in Washington, Oregon, and California compares imple-
mentation of current plans for National Forests and Bureau of Land Management Districts
with implementation of the spotted owl conservation strategy. "Current plans' for the Forest
Service are final Forest Plans or draft Forest Plans where plans have not been finalized.
For the Bureau of Land Management, the currently planned sale level by District are used.
The analysis considers the dynamics of the timber market economy. The effects of a timber
supply reduction on Federal lands in Washington, Oregon, and California were analyzed
nationally in terms of changes in price, consumption, trade, and interregional shifts in
supply. The resulting effects on regional prices were examined to estimate potential
response of private supply.
Changes in prices will also affect revenues to the Federal Treasury and payments to
counties in the three affected States. The analysis shows that rising prices will substantially
offset reductions in timber volume. However, since the national economic situation in the
future is uncertain, an analysis of the effect on revenues to the Treasury and payments to
counties if prices remain constant was also done and shown here for comparison.
In summary, the analysis shows:
Timber harvest on Federal lands will decline by 2.4 billion board feet by 1995
and remain at that level under the Interagency Scientific Committee recommen-
dations. (Table I).
Private harvest increases in response to higher stumpage prices will reduce the
effects of the Federal decline by about half in the near term (1995), but this
increase cannot be sustained, and by 2000, timber harvest from Federal and
private ownerships combined will be 2.7 billion board feet below the current
level. (Table II)
Current planned Federal harvest levels would support about 53,000 jobs in
total; about half of these are direct employment in the forest industry. The loss
of jobs by 1995 in response to the Federal harvest volume reduction would be
about 25,500 jobs. (Table III)
The private harvest response would mitigate the employment effect in 1995 and
net job loss would be about 13,300. Private owners will not be able to sustain
this higher level of production. By the year 2,000, therefore, job loss as com-
pared with the present will be about 28,000.
Rising prices will help offset loss in revenues to the Treasury, but by 1995,
implementation of the conservation strategy will mean a decline of $148 million
and by 2000, a decline of $229 million as compared with revenues from cur-
rently planned levels of harvest. (Table IV)
3
Since the future of the economy is uncertain, revenue loss was also estimated
using constant prices over the decade of the 1990's. Under this scenario,
returns to the Treasury would be $501 million lower in 1995 and 2000. (Table
V)
Payments to States and counties will decline despite rising prices, particularly
in Oregon as a result of large declines in revenues from BLM lands. In total, the
decline would be about $65 million per year by 1995 and $86 million per year
1
by 2000 under the rising price scenario. (Table VI)
As with revenues, the decline in payments to States/counties will be greater if
constant prices are assumed. Under this scenario, about $172 million in rev-
enue will be lost by these State and local governments. (Table VII)
1
I
1
1
4
Table I--Volume of Timber Offered for Sale on Federal Lands After
Implementation of the Interagency Scientific Committee Conservation Strategy
Actual or
Actual or Projected
Current
Projected
Final Plans plus
Final Plans
1/
Plans
ISC Strategy
Forests and Districts
Affected by ISC Strategy
1995
2000
1995
2000
(Millions of 1989 Dollars)
Washington
Forest Service
943
752
752
419
419
Subtotal
943
752
752
419
419
Oregon
Forest Service
2,209
1,848
1,848
1,362
1,362
Bureau of Land Mgmt.
1,176
1,176
1,176
443
443
Subtotal
3,385
3,024
3,024
1,805
1,805
California
Forest Service
690
600
600
392
392
Bureau of Land Mgmt.
9
9
9
3
3
Subtotal
699
609
609
395
395
Total
5,027
4,385
4,385
2,619
2,619
1/
The timber volume used for projected final plans could change up to plus
or minus 10 percent in actual final plans. A mid-point of this range is shown
in order to assess the impact of implementing the ISC strategy.
NOTE: Final BLM new plan sale levels will not be known until the new plans are
completed in 1992. Existing plan levels are carried into years 1995 and
2000 for comparative purposes only.
5
Table II - - Changes in Timber Harvest on Public and Private Lands After
Implementation of the Interagency Scientific Committee Conservation Strategy.
Current Plans
Implementation of the
ISC Strategy
1995
2000
Federal Lands Affected
1
by the ISC Strategy
Washington
943
-524
-524
Oregon
3385
-1580
-1580
California
699
-304
-304
Subtotal
5018
-2408
-2408
1
Private Lands
Western Washington and
Oregon
7235
585
-295
Eastern Oregon and
Washington
630
375
35
California
2115
185
---
1
Subtotal
9980
1145
-260
Net Change
-1263
-2668
1
1
1
I
I
6
Table III--Changes in Timber-Based Employment That Would Result from
Implementation of the Northern Spotted Owl Conservation Strategy
Change from Current Level With
Implementation of ISC Strategy
1995
2000
Washington
Forest Service
-5,853
-5,853
Bureau of Land Mgmt.
Total
-5,853
-5,853
Oregon
Forest Service
-8,569
-8,569
Bureau of Land Mgmt.
-7,669
-7,669
Total
-16,238
-16,238
Northern California
Forest Service
-3,257
-3,257
Bureau of Land Mgmt.
-60
-60
Total
-3,317
-3,317
Total Public
-25,409
-25,409
Private lands
Western WA & OR
+6,201
-3,127
Eastern WA & OR
+3,975
+371
California
+1,961
Total
+12,137
-2,756
Net Change
-13,272
-28,165
7
Table IV--Timber-Based Revenue After Implementation of the Interagency
Scientific Committee--Rising Price Assumption
Actual or
Actual or Projected
Current
Projected
Final Plans plus
Plans
Final Plans
ISC Strategy
Forests and Districts
Affected by ISC Strategy
1995
1995
2000
1995
2000
(Millions of 1989 Dollars)
1
Washington
Forest Service
151
166
156
114
97
Subtotal
151
166
156
114
97
1
Oregon
Forest Service
468
539
532
501
453
Bureau of Land Mgmt.
305
394
410
185
175
Subtotal
773
933
942
686
628
1
California
Forest Service
99
107
103
75
68
Bureau of Land Mgmt.
1
2
2
1
1
Subtotal
100
109
105
76
69
1
Total
1024
1208
1203
876
795
Numbers for projected final plans are based on projected timber volumes
that could change up to plus or minus 10 percent in actual final plans. The
numbers shown here are for the midpoint of this range in order to assess the
impact of implementing the ISC strategy.
NOTE:
Final BLM new plan sale levels will not be known until the new plans are
completed in 1992. Existing plan levels are carried into years 1995 and
2000 for comparative purposes only.
8
Table V- -Timber-Based Revenue After Implementation of the Interagency
Scientific Committee--Constant Price Assumption
Actual or
Actual or Projected
Current
Projected
Final Plans plus
Plans
Final Plans
ISC Strategy
Forests and Districts
Affected by ISC Strategy
1995
1995
2000
1995
2000
(Millions of 1989 Dollars)
Washington
Forest Service
151
119
119
64
64
Subtotal
151
119
119
64
64
Oregon
Forest Service
468
402
402
292
292
Bureau of Land Mgmt.
305
305
305
110
110
Subtotal
773
707
707
402
402
California
Forest Service
99
88
88
56
56
Bureau of Land Mgmt.
1
1
1
Subtotal
100
89
89
56
56
Total
1024
915
915
523
523
Numbers for projected final plans are based on projected timber volumes
that could change up to plus or minus 10 percent in actual final plans. The
numbers shown here are for the midpoint of this range in order to assess the
impact of implementing the ISC strategy.
Less than one million.
NOTE:
Final BLM new plan sale levels will not be known until the new plans are
completed in 1992. Existing plan levels are carried into years 1995 and
2000 for comparative purposes only.
9
Table VI Payment to States After Implementation of the Northern Spotted Owl
Conservation Strategy - Rising Price Assumption
Actual or
Actual or Projected
Current
Projected
1/
Final Plans plus
Plans
Final Plans
ISC Strategy
Forests and Districts
Affected by ISC Strategy
1995
1995
2000
1995
2000
(Thousands of 1989 Dollars)
Washington
Forest Service
36,496
39,565
37,446
27,115
23,213
Subtotal
36,496
39,565
37,446
27,115
23,213
1
Oregon
Forest Service
99,340
114,528
112,807
105,696
94,863
Bureau of Land Mgmt.
161,705
205,100
213,048
95,703
91,118
Subtotal
261,045
319,628
325,855
201,399
185,981
1
California
Forest Service
21,919
23,963
22,989
16,761
15,271
Bureau of Land Mgmt.
54
67
64
24
22
Subtotal
22,973
24,030
23,053
16,785
15,293
Total
319,574
383,223
386,354
245,299
224,487
Numbers for projected final plans are based on projected timber volumes
1
that could change up to plus or minus 10 percent in actual final plans. The
numbers shown here are for the midpoint of this range in order to assess the
impact of implementing the ISC strategy.
NOTE: Final BLM new plan sale levels will not be known until the new plans are
completed in 1992. Existing plan levels are carried into years 1995 and
1
2000 for comparative purposes only.
10
Table VII Payment to States After Implementation of the Northern Spotted Owl
Conservation Strategy - Constant Price Assumption
Actual or
Actual or Projected
Current
Projected
1
Final Plans plus
Plans
Final Plans
ISC Strategy
Forests and Districts
Affected by ISC Strategy
1995
1995
2000
1995
2000
(Thousands of 1989 Dollars)
Washington
Forest Service
36,496
28,481
28,481
15,354
15,354
Subtotal
36,496
28,481
28,481
15,354
15,354
Oregon
Forest Service
99,340
85,087
85,087
61,334
61,334
Bureau of Land Mgmt.
161,705
161,705
161,705
58,333
58,333
Subtotal
261,045
246,792
246,792
119,667
119,667
California
Forest Service
21,919
19,483
19,483
12,415
12,415
Bureau of Land Mgmt.
54
54
54
18
18
Subtotal
21,973
19,537
19,537
12,433
12,433
Total
319,514
294,810
294,810
147,454
147,454
Numbers for projected final plans are based on projected timber volumes
that could change up to plus or minus 10 percent in actual final plans. The
numbers shown here are for the midpoint of this range in order to assess the
impact of implementing the ISC strategy.
NOTE: Final BLM new plan sale levels will not be known until the new plans are
completed in 1992. Existing plan levels are carried into years 1995 and
2000 for comparative purposes only.
11
Introduction
13
INTRODUCTION
The purpose of this report is to describe anticipated economic effects that would result
from implementation of the conservation strategy for the Northern Spotted Owl recom-
mended by the Interagency Scientific Committee.
Over the past several years, there has been tremendous interest in the northern spotted
owl, its habitat, and its relationship to timber production in the Pacific Northwest. As part
of the effort to gather thorough and timely information on the issue, an Interagency
Scientific Committee was established to address the conservation of the northern spotted
owl. This Committee was established through a 1988 agreement between the USDA Forest
Service, the USDI Bureau of Land Management, the USDI National Park Service, and the
USDI Fish and Wildlife Service. The Committee's charter was subsequently incorporated
into Section 318 of Public Law 101-121 in October 1989.
After many months of gathering and analyzing information, the Committee released a
report entitled "A Conservation Strategy for the Northern Spotted Owl" on April 3, 1990. The
proposed strategy in that report has since been analyzed by the Bureau of Land Manage-
ment and the Forest Service to determine the economic effects if the strategy were fully
implemented. This report describes the estimated economic effects of implementing the
owl conservation strategy.
To estimate and describe possible effects, it was necessary to make certain assumptions
and envision certain scenarios. For example, timber price responses to a reduction in
timber supply are uncertain, so effects with the expected price change and effects with no
price change are both shown. This provide a range in which the reader can project and
consider his or her own assumptions and predictions. Numbers in the report generally
were not rounded off, but were left as developed from the analysis. This specificity should
not be interpreted as an indication of high precision; instead the numbers should be used
as an estimate of the direciton and magnitude of changes.
The report was prepared by the Forest Service, USDA, and the Bureau of Land Manage-
ment, USDI. The following team provided leadership in completing the report:
Interagency Economic Effects Team
Tom Hamilton, Forest Service, Team Leader
Joe Zimmer, Bureau of Land Management, Team Leader
Phil Stanbro, Bureau of Land Management
Mel Berg, Bureau of Land Management
Dave Darr, Forest Service
Bill Levere, Forest Service
Richard Haynes, Forest Service
Bill Lange, Forest Service
AI Fox, Forest Service
Mike Skinner, Forest Service
Don Eagleston, Forest Service
Bob Biesterfeldt, Forest Service
15
Economic Analysis
17
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
TIMBER HARVEST VOLUME
This section of the report focuses on the current timber situation in Washington, Oregon,
and California, and expected economic impacts if the Conservation Strategy recommend-
ed by the Interagency Scientific Committee is implemented. The report concentrates on
dollar and employment impacts in the affected areas of these three States. However, it also
examines the effect nationally of a reduction in Federal timber harvest in Washington,
Oregon, and California.
The data for adjusted timber harvest levels are the latest available from the Forest Service
and Bureau of Land Management. The starting point for these analyses is the allowable
sale quantity (ASQ) in existing plans. For the Forest Service, this is a combination of final
Forest Plans, or draft Forest Plans for forests where plans have not been finalized. For the
Bureau of Land Management, the starting point is the currently planned sale level by
district. These starting point levels are lower than recent harvest levels. For example, for
Forest Service Region 6 (Washington and Oregon), the starting point level is about 4 billion
board feet; in recent years, harvest has exceeded 5 billion in these two States. The starting
point was selected for two reasons. First, it represents currently planned outputs from
these Federal lands and associated employment effects were a part of the planning
process. Second, it approximates historic levels of harvest. Figure 1 shows the harvest for
Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management lands for the period, 1980-1988. During
this period, there was a substantial amount of fluctuation in timber harvest from 2.3 to 5.5
billion board feet per year on National Forests and from 0.3 to 1.4 billion on BLM lands.
However, the average harvest was 4.1 billion and 0.9 billion, respectively--about the same
as the starting point level in the analysis.
The analysis shown here is based on the change from this starting point volume if the
Conservation Strategy recommended by the Interagency Scientific Committee were fully
implemented. For the Forest Service, an interim step is also shown. This interim step shows
a timber volume for projected final plans for those forests where plans are still in draft
stage. These projected volumes could change up to plus or minus 10 percent in actual
final plans. The mid-point of this range is used in this report in order to assess the impact
of implementing the ISC strategy.
The Bureau of Land Management is now preparing new resource management plans for
its Western Oregon districts. Because these plans are not scheduled to be completed until
1991, no resulting timber harvest levels can be predicted. Base-line levels for the BLM are,
therefore, considered to be continuation of the existing plans developed in the late 1970's
and early 1980's for the purpose of this study.
Table 1 shows the changes in ASQ volume for forests and districts affected by the Spotted
Owl Conservation Strategy. In total, the reduction on Forest Service and Bureau of Land
Management lands would be 2.4 billion board feet, a decrease of 48 percent from the
currently planned level. The ASQ reduction on Federal lands affected by the ISC Conserva-
tion Strategy would be 55 percent in Washington, 46 percent in Oregon, and 43 percent
in California.
About 1 billion board feet of timber are harvested on State lands in these three States each
year. No analyses of timber volume reduction for these lands were made in this study.
19
Figure 1 Volume of timber harvested from
USDA Forest Service PNW REGION and
Bureau of Land Management in WA&OR
billion board feet
6
5
4
3
20
2
1
0
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
year
Forest Service
BLM
Starting point--FS
Starting point--BLM
Table 1--Volume of Timber Offered for Sale on Federal Lands After
Implementation of the Interagency Scientific Committee Conservation Stretegy.
Actual or
Actual or Projected
Current
Projected
Final Plans plus
Plans
Final Plans
ISC Strategy
Forests and Districts
Affected by ISC Strategy
1995
2000
1995
2000
(Million Board Feet)
Washington National Forests
Gifford Pinchot
388
334
334
189
189
1
Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie
170
108
108
45
45
Okanogan
63
63
63
59
59
Olympic
186
132
132
43
43
Wenatchee
136
136
136
83
83
Subtotal
943
752
752
419
419
Oregon National Forests
Deschutes
202
100
100
91
91
Mt. Hood
255
193
193
154
154
1
Rogue River
137
120
120
85
85
Siskiyou
160
160
160
119
119
Suislaw
335
335
335
198
198
Umpqua-
340
334
334
273
273
Willamette
568
491
491
333
333
Winema
199
115
115
110
110
Oregon BLM Districts
Salem
239
239
239
62
62
Eugene
223
223
223
59
59
Roseburg
247
247
247
103
103
Medford
213
213
213
123
123
Coos Bay
254
254
254
96
96
Subtotal
3,385
3,024
3,024
1,805
1,805
California. 1 National Forests
Klamath
200
142
142
110
110
1
Mendocino
93
84
84
66
66
Shasta-Tripity
226
224
224
129
129
Six Rivers
175
150
150
92
92
California BLM District
Ukiah
9
9
9
3
3
Subtotal
699
609
609
395
395
Total Public
5,027
4,385
4,385
2,619
2,619
The timber volume shown for projected final plans in these forests could
change up to plus or minus 10 percent in actual final plans. A mid-point of
this range is shown in order to assess the impact of implementing the ISC
strategy.
NOTE:
Final BLM new plan sale levels will not be known until the new plans
are completed in 1992. Existing plan levels are carried into years
1995 and 2000 for comparative purposes only.
21
In cooperation with the Fish and Wildlife Service, interested tribes in the northern spotted
owl study area are being briefed on the results of the study. At this time, the effects of the
study's recommendations on the Bureau of Indian Affairs' timber sales program and its
ability to comply have not been fully evaluated. It is possible, however, that additional fiscal
resources, both human and financial, may be needed to comply with the study recommen-
dations, should they be adopted by the Bureau of Indian Affairs. Likewise, the effects on
the annual allowable harvest level and tribal revenues will be evaluated. In the event it is
determined that impacts on tribes and on Indian forestry programs will occur, the informa-
1
tion will be provided.
The remaining large ownership, private lands, is examined as part of the analysis that
follows. Timber production on these lands has historically responded directly to economic
conditions and could help mitigate short-term effects of reduced public timber availability.
The analysis will examine this potential response and the associated effects on employ-
ment.
MARKET IMPACTS OF ALTERNATIVE FEDERAL TIMBER FLOWS
Federal timber in Washington, Oregon, and California comes from timberlands managed
by the U.S.D.A. Forest Service and the U.S.D.I Bureau of Land Management (BLM).
Although the legislative mandates for stewardship differ between the two agencies, imple-
mentation of the ISC report will cause changes on all Federal timberlands. This section
highlights the various economic effects of alternative federal timber flows. Regional and
national effects on product and timber markets are reported.
1
Impacts of alternative flows of federal timber are estimated as changes from a base-line
projection of future timber markets, given the assumptions in the 1989 RPA Timber Assess-
ment. The model used for the projections is the Timber Assessment Market Model-TAMM
(Adams and Haynes 1980 and Haynes and Adams 1985). It provides an integrated
structure for considering the behavior of prices, consumption, and production in both
stumpage and product markets.
Projections from TAMM reflect the consequences of balancing the supply of timber and
the demand for the final products made from that timber. The projections recognize that
production and consumption are sensitive to both product prices and production costs.
They also recognize that different types of landowners have different propensities for
harvesting and managing their timberlands. Private harvests are treated as price and
inventory responsive while public harvests are treated as fixed at predetermined levels.
TAMM also includes an inventory projection system for private timberlands.
In the past decade, TAMM has been used widely within the USDA Forest Service and by
interest groups to estimate the market impacts of various policies and issues. The present
version serves best as an indicator of long-term trends. For example, in the 1989 RPA
Timber Assessment, it was used to make projections to the year 2040. TAMM is used in
this analysis to examine market impacts for the 1990's. In comparing alternative ASQ levels
for Federal timber, emphasis is on differences from the base-line projection rather than the
projections themselves.
Our analysis begins with a summary of historical trends and the findings in the base-line
projection. Then, assumptions are changed and market impacts are estimated as differ-
ences from the base-line projection.
22
U.S. Roundwood Consumption Increasing
Total U.S. consumption (figure 2) of softwood roundwood from growing stock was 14.3
billion cubic feet in 1986. This was roughly 75 percent above the average consumption in
the early 1950's. It is expected to remain about at this level through 2000 and then to
increase to 17.5 billion cubic feet by 2040, with the largest increase in pulpwood. In the
near term. rising prices help slow the growth in consumption, but in the longer term a
slowing of domestic markets (especially for residential construction) and increasing use
of hardwoods accounts for slower projected growth in demand for softwood timber. The
United States will remain a net importer of softwood forest products. This is especially the
case for softwood lumber imports from Canada.
Figure 3 shows long-term trends in softwood harvest by major U.S. region. After World War
II, strong demand for forest products and declining private harvests brought expanded
markets for public timber. On Federal timberlands, management policies shifted from the
custodial posture of the inter-war years toward an active program of timber sales. National
Forest harvest more than doubled in the 15 years after 1950. By the late 1960's, the harvest
was approaching the maximum levels under existing management plans, and the Forest
Service adopted a nondeclining even-flow approach to the computation of allowable cuts.
Harvest has gradually declined over the past 20 years. Harvest on BLM timberlands
(primarily in Oregon) have been roughly constant for the past 15 years.
U.S. Product Demand
Only limited growth in demand for solid-wood products will take place in the future. As the
population ages, growth in real GNP slows and new housing construction is stable to
declining. Consumption increments come almost entirely from increased wood use in
residential upkeep and alteration, nonresidential construction, and manufacturing. U.S.
lumber consumption rises to 56 billion board feet by 2040 (the 1987 peak was 50.6 billion
feet). Plywood consumption returns to 23 billion square feet by 2040 (the current level is
21 billion feet) after a period of modest substitution-induced decline over the next 20 years.
In the fiber products sector, growth in consumption slows in line with GNP and also
because of assumed increases in the use of recycled fibers. For western Washington and
western Oregon, pulp output is projected to grow by roughly 20 percent over the 50-year
projection period.
Costs and Technology
Real non-wood costs (output basis) for solid-wood mills fall by less than 0.5 percent per
year as labor productivity continues to improve and use of other materials and energy falls.
Recovery (product output per cubic foot of log input) rises at roughly 0.1 percent year over
the 50-year projection. This is a far slower rate than observed in the 1980's due to rapidly
declining future log size and quality
International Markets and Log Exports
After 1984, the value of the U.S. dollar dropped sharply against the Japanese yen. This
plus a good housing market in Japan stimulated Japanese imports of softwood logs and
lumber from the Pacific Northwest. In addition, China entered the market for U.S. logs in
the early 1980's with the Pacific Northwest being the source of much of the supply. Thus,
Washington and Oregon had additional sources of demands for logs not shared by other
U.S. regions. As a result, softwood lumber and plywood manufacturers in the Pacific
23
Figure 2 U.S. softwood roundwood
consumption by product, 1952-2040
Billion cubic feet
20
FUEL
MISC
15
PULP
24
10
VENEER
5
SAWLOGS
O
1952
1962
1972
1982
1992
2002
2012
2022
2032
Year
Figure 3 U.S. softwood timber harvest
by region, 1952-2040
Billion cubic feet
10
8
SOUTH
6
25
PACIFIC COAST
4
NORTH
2
ROCKY MTNS+
O
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
Year
Northwest have to compete against log exporters for raw material supplies to a much
larger extent than manufacturers in other regions of the country.
Canadian softwood lumber producers will experience gradually rising delivered wood
costs as haul distances increase and stand densities fall. The real Canadian-U.S. ex-
change rate is expected to change little from the current level. In the base case, exports
of lumber and plywood grow little over the projection period. Log exports fall from the
1984-1988 average level of 3.1 billion board feet per year (1988 peak level of 3.6 billion feet)
to an average of 2.5 billion board feet by 2000. Limitations in product and declining log
export volumes derive from the assumption of increased competition from Canada, the
Southern Hemisphere, and the Soviet Union.
Growth in Softwood Harvest is in the South
In figure 3, there are two trends to note. First, the three West Coast States together and
the South are expected to remain the two most important timber producing regions in the
United States. Second, the South overtook the Pacific Coast in the mid 1970s. Equally
important is the share of Federal harvest which in 1986 constituted 21 percent of total
harvests. By 2000, this fraction is expected to drop to 19.4 percent. Thereafter, this fraction
continues to decline, reaching 16.4 percent by 2040.
Total Pacific Coast Harvest Projected to Level Off After Decline in 2000
For the Pacific Coast, harvests over the last three years have been at all time highs. Figure
4 shows softwood harvest by owner. The smallest ownership class (in terms of harvest)
is the nonindustrial private timberland. Harvest on this ownership had been declining from
the early 1950s until 1986. After that, harvest in western Washington and western Oregon
started to increase. The share of federal timber has changed over the past several
decades from 18 percent in 1952 to 39 percent in 1986. The share is expected to slowly
decline in the future to 34 percent by 2040.
Industries Differ Between Washington/Oregon and California
The industry differs between the two areas primarily in the absolute size of the lumber
industry and in the concentration of the softwood plywood industry in western Washington
and western Oregon. The Douglas-fir subregion also contains roughly 8 million tons of
pulp and paper production. There is only a small pulp and paper industry in California that
focuses on conversion. Solid-wood products are expected to continue their dominance of
the forest products industry in the Pacific Coast region. The exception is the plywood
industry where production in the Douglas-fir subregion is expected to drop as a conse-
quence of competition from oriented strand boards and in California where production has
declined because of competitive pressures from other plywood producing areas.
Pacific Coast Must Compete With South and Canada
Output of the solid-wood products industries (lumber and plywood) in the Pacific Coast
regions has fluctuated with periodic construction cycles but has shown essentially no
upward or downward trend since the mid-1960's (except for the clear drop in plywood
production in California). Growth in U.S. consumption over the past two decades has been
met by the South in the case of plywood and by the South and Canada in the case of
softwood lumber.
The Pacific Coast's share of aggregate national and virtually all regional markets has fallen
steadily. These trends are a reflection of the region's high production costs relative to its
key North American competitors. As a result of increases in both delivered wood and
nonwood costs, the region emerged as the high cost lumber and plywood producer in
26
Figure 4 Total removals of softwood
timber from WA, OR, and CA, by
ownership, 1952-2040
Billion cubic feet
5
4
3
)
27
2
*
*
*
1
B
O
1952
1962
1970
1976
1986
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
National Forest
Other Government
Forest Industry
Farmers & Misc.
Total
North America in the early 1970's. The recession of 1980-82 brought a sharp drop in
delivered wood costs due both to declining stumpage prices and reduction in log and haul
costs. This change helped to narrow the cost differential with the South but did little to
overcome the strong wood cost advantage of interior British Columbia in the case of
lumber. Reductions in work force and improvements in recovery efficiency also have acted
to lower nonwood costs, but the region remains the high cost producer in both lumber and
plywood.
Fiber Products Industries Expanding
The fiber products industry in western Washington and western Oregon has expanded
steadily as paper and board facilities have been integrated with pulping operations.
Recent increases have come in newsprint and unbleached kraft (linerboard and packag-
ing) grades, with stable to declining output in fine and other papers. Production is from
otherwise unused residues from solidwood production, from wastepaper, and from round-
wood, chipped in the woods or at other remote locations.
Log Exports Have Been a Growth Sector
Log exports have comprised the most significant growth sector especially in western
Washington and western Oregon, consuming some 20 percent of total regional harvest by
1980. After peaking in the late 1970's, log exports from this region fell in the 1980-82
recession. They subsequently recovered to all time highs in 1988 and 1989. Despite the
sharp drop in volumes in the early 1980's, export prices did not fall as rapidly as domestic
prices and exports remained a key revenue source for some regional firms during the
recession. In the recovery, the People's Republic of China (PRC) has emerged as the
second largest importer. Logs exported to the PRC are roughly the same quality as those
used in domestic mills.
Stumpage Prices Expected to Increase
As a consequence of this increasing pressure on domestic timber inventories, timber
prices are expected to continue to increase in real terms. Stumpage prices during the next
decade are expected to increase by 1.2 percent per year in the Douglas-fir subregion and
2.5 percent per year in the South. Also embodied in these projections are improvements
1
in technology that will decrease employment by 13 percent over the next 15 years.
There are differences in harvest and industry trends between California and Washington/
Oregon. Total timber harvest (sawtimber and nonsawtimber) in Washington/Oregon
reached all time high levels during the last three years while those in California have been
stable but below those seen in the early 1950s.
Special Issues not Included in Analysis
There are many current issues whose resolution could lead to changes in the base-line
projection. The following issues were considered, but not included in the base-line analysis
because their resolution is uncertain or their potential effects on timber supplies are
uncertain:
Roadless areas
Below cost timber sale programs
New perspectives
Effect of recycling on Canadian timber supplies
28
O Productivity of nonindustrial private forest lands
o Paper and board recycling
Roadless Areas
It has been suggested that timber harvesting be banned on existing roadless areas in
National Forests. Implementation of the ISC report will have this effect in the Pacific
Northwest. The ASQ for the Alaska Region would be reduced from 75 million cubic feet
to 13 million. In Pacific Southwest, the reduction would be about 15 million cubic feet, for
the Rocky Mountain Regions, 10 million cubic feet, for the Southern Region, 10 million
cubic feet, and for the Northern Region, no effect. For the contiguous States, the ASQ
would decline 123 million cubic feet or about 7 percent of the National Forest ASQ after
taking account of the recommendations of the ISC report.
Below Cost Timber Sale Programs
It has been suggested that all below cost timber sale programs be eliminated. The main
effects of this action would be in the Rocky Mountain regions where the ASQ would decline
135 million cubic feet or 32 percent of the total National Forest ASQ for these regions. The
ASQ for Pacific Southwest would decline 15 million cubic feet, for the Southern Region,
25 million cubic feet and for the Northern Region, 10 million cubic feet. For the contiguous
States, the total decline is 185 million cubic feet-10 percent of the ASQ for all National
Forests.
There is the possibility that implementation of the ISC report recommendations would raise
stumpage prices enough to substantially eliminate below cost timber sale programs. The
prices for many of the below cost timber programs are within $10 per thousand board feet
of the cost.
New Perspectives
The silvicultural practices associated with the new perspectives in forestry concept will
have as an effect an increase in logging costs. The extent of application of new perspec-
tives on National Forests is yet to be determined. The increase in logging costs may be
enough to result in emergence of additional below cost programs. These higher costs
would be offset somewhat by higher stumpage prices associated with implementation of
the ISC report recommendations, however.
Effect of Recycling on Canadian Timber Supplies
The potential effects of recycling on the North American timber industries are many and
complex. Among the most complex and important is the potential effect of recycling on the
Canadian timber resource. The United States relies on Canada for some 9 million tons of
newsprint per year-More than one-half of consumption. If recycling in the United States
results in mandated percentages of recycling in newsprint, the Canadian industry would
find it difficult to acquire enough wastepaper to meet the requirement. This would provide
new opportunities for the U.S. newsprint industry. It would also provide additional round-
wood volumes for the solid wood segment of the Canadian industry. This may affect the
outlook for imports of softwood lumber from Canada.
One response to implementation of the ISC report is to increase imports of softwood
lumber from Canada. In the absence of a nationwide overview of timber demand and
supply relationships in Canada, there has developed different opinions about long-term
29
timber supply prospects in Canada. One view has it that Canada is near the ceiling on
timber supply and that significant, sustained increases in production would be difficult. A
second view is that there are significant volumes of softwood timber that are currently
economically inaccessible. Sustained increases in roundwood prices such as from imple-
mentation of the ISC report would make these roundwood volumes economically accessi-
ble. In addition, Canada sells some 3 billion board feet of softwood lumber to offshore
markets. Significant increases in prices in the United States would tend to draw lumber
away from offshore markets. For the purposes of analysis of impacts of implementation of
1
the ISC report, it was assumed that Canada will continue to be as responsive in the future
as it has been in the past to increases in roundwood and softwood lumber prices in the
United States.
Productivity of Nonindustrial Private Forest Lands
Private forest land can offset some, but not all, of the reduction in ASQ on National Forests.
In the base-line projection, forest industry land is assumed to be managed intensively and
some intensification of management is assumed to be the case for nonindustrial private
forest lands as reflected by remeasurement of forest inventory plots. These assumptions
lead to the establishment of 50 million acres of southern pine plantations by 2040 as
compared with 20 million today. These additional plantations have major effects on the
1
long-term supply/demand outlook, but not in the short term.
State and local control of harvesting and management activities on privately owned forest
land may be becoming more common. The effects of these controls are under study, but
no explicit consideration of them is given in the base line projection. Although they may
lead to short-term decreases in supplies, in the long term, they may lead to long-term
supply increases in response to increased management of private lands. The three pro-
posed initiatives now under consideration in California to limit various silvicultural and final
harvest practices (a form of State control) also were not considered in the various projec-
tions. If any or all three of the initiatives pass, then harvest response from private timber-
lands in California will be less than shown in the projections.
Paper and Board Recycling
The American Paper Institute (API) recently announced that the paper industry would
increase the recovery of paper and board products from a current rate of 33 percent today
to a recovery rate of 40 percent by 1995. The API recycling goal has the effect of "freeing
up" timber in the South and other regions that would have have otherwise been used in
pulp and paper production. The API recycling goal was analyzed. Effects on the Pacific
Northwest and Southwest are significant only after the year 2000. Revenue from timber
sales in these regions would decline relative to the base scenario no more than two
percent in the year 2000 as a result of the API recycling goal.
Harvest by Ownership for Washington and Oregon
The U.S. timber industries in the 1980's were affected by the strong business cycle that
characterized the decade. The early years were characterized by slowing economic
growth and high interest rates that caused a severe recession in the home building
industry. However, beginning in 1983 and continuing through 1989, there was an unprece-
dented period of high wood consumption in the United States. These sustained high levels
of consumption increased domestic harvest and imports of lumber from Canada.
The recession also caused structural shifts in timber sale programs for the Forest Service,
the Bureau of Land Management, and the State of Washington Department of Natural
30
Resources. The late 1970's was a time of high inflation that was reflected in part in high
bids for timber harvesting rights for these three agencies. In western Washington and
western Oregon, there was no escalation clause in Federal contracts permitting changes
in the bid price according to market conditions. Contracts stipulated that the purchaser
pay the bid price. Contracts for State of Washington timber sales were similar to those
used by Federal Agencies. When the recession came, markets did not support the high
prices bid for timber in previous years. When the 3 to 5 year contracts started to become
due, purchasers appealed for relief. Under the terms of relief legislation, purchasers could
avoid having to fulfill original contracts if they met specified circumstances. In addition,
timber sale contracts were changed in 1983-84 to try to avoid a repeat of the conditions
that led to the buy-back of timber sale contracts.
The harvest of timber on private timberland has also been affected by structural change.
By the end of the 1980's, much of the old-growth timber on forest industry land was
harvested and an increasing proportion of the harvest is composed of second-growth
timber from northwest Oregon and the Puget Sound region. This transition to second-
growth timber was one of the driving forces behind the change to modern technology in
mill processing.
Thus, timber harvest by owner in the Pacific Northwest in the 1980's was determined in
part by the market and in part by the political process within an environment that was
unique in the United States. The effects of these forces are reflected in the harvest patterns
for these ownerships shown in table 2. In general, markets have been good for timber
products and it is within this context that alternative scenarios are presented for the future.
Finally, Forest Service sales programs in the last 15 years have averaged 1.8 and 4.9 billion
board feet in the Pacific Southwest and Northwest Regions. These sales programs have
been relatively constant (figure 5) and uninfluenced by economic cycles during the period.
Harvest levels, though, are much more variable. For example, harvest in the Pacific
Northwest has ranged from from 2.5 to 5.5 billion board feet. Harvest levels have averaged
1.7 and 4.4 billion board feet in the Pacific Southwest and Northwest Regions, respectively,
during this period. Different harvest than sales levels results from a number of factors
including the build up of uncut volume during 1980-1983, reporting inconsistencies be-
tween cut and sold, and timber appraisal practices.
Effects of Changes in Assumptions
The basic approach used in this economic analysis is one referenced to as scenario
planning (Wack 1985). There are four scenarios in the analysis. All employ the same
assumptions as for the base-line projection regarding trends in demand determinants for
solidwood and fiber products, nonwood production costs, technology, nonindustrial har-
vest response, and trade with countries other than Canada. The four scenarios are
compared with a base-line projection that assumes total Forest Service ASQ of 4.9 billion
board feet for the Pacific Northwest Region and the northern California Forests of the
Pacific Southwest Region. For the Bureau of Land Management, an ASQ of 1.2 billion
board feet is assumed.
The 4 scenarios are termed plans, owls, logx1 and logx2.
Plans
This scenario uses a timber value for projected final plans for those forests where plans
are still in draft stage. These projected volumes could change up to plus or minus 10
percent in actual final plans. The mid-point of this range is used in this report in order to
31
Table 2 Washington and Uregon timbef harvest by ownership, 1900-1909
(in million board feet, Scribner scale)
Bureau
Bureau
State and
National
of Land
of Indian
Other
year
Private
State
Forest
Management
Affairs
public
Total
Washington:
1980
3,507
745
1,089
0
336
43
5,720
1981
3,265
468
875
1
260
20
4,890
1982
3,740
440
728
1
152
18
5,079
1983
4,025
549
1,240
8
238
28
6,088
1984
3,545
795
1,189
2
205
66
5,802
1
1985
3,561
1,013
1,128
5
213
43
5,963
1986
3,989
1,064
1,232
4
235
32
6,556
1987
4,367
970
1,423
5
238
35
7,037
1988
4,406
826
1,486
0
271
56
7,045
1989
(est.)
4,670
842
1,400
0
280
50
7,242
Oregon:
1980
3,134
186
2,399
797
105
19
6,639
1981
2,702
216
1,981
677
95
24
5,695
1982
3,440
175
1,688
312
126
17
5,758
1983
3,374
257
2,902
789
112
31
7,464
I
1984
3,078
249
3,164
920
101
38
7,550
1985
3,332
268
3,480
891
121
34
8,127
1986
3,494
225
3,850
1,042
104
28
8,743
1987
3,281
199
3,451
1,115
117
52
8,215
1988
3,259
270
3,487
1,439
121
39
8,615
1989
(est.)
3,487
250
3,300
1,181
125
40
8,383
3
1
1
32
Figure 5 Timber cut and sold in
Forest Service Regions 5 and 6
Billion board feet
6
:0
*
*
*
5
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
4
*
33
3
[s
2
+
+
1
¥
O
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
R5 Sold
R5 Cut
R6 Sold
R6 Cut
assess the impact of implementing the ISC strategy. In this scenario, ASQ levels by 1992
for the National Forests in the Pacific Southwest Region and for the Pacific Northwest
Region are expected to be 0.6 and 3.4 billion board feet, respectively. The ASQ for the
Bureau of Land Management is assumed to be unchanged from the base-line projection.
Owls
This scenario reflects estimates made by each Region of the impacts of the Spotted Owl
Conservation Strategy. In this scenario, ASQ levels by 1992 for the National Forests in the
Pacific Southwest Region and for the Pacific Northwest Region are expected to be 0.4 and
2.6 billion board feet, respectively. The ASQ for the Bureau of Land Management is
assumed to be 0.4 billion board feet.
Logx1 and Logx2
These scenarios refer to two levels of log export restrictions. In 1989, log exports from the
Washington and Oregon customs districts were 2.36 and 1.26 billion board feet, respec-
tively. LOGX1 is a restriction of log exports from state and federal timberlands located west
of the 100th Meridian and in the contiguous States. Essentially, this proposal extends the
current restriction on Federal lands to include State lands. This restriction would affect from
0.6 to 1.0 billion board feet in the Douglas-fir subregion depending on the provision
covering substitution. LOGX2 is a total elimination of all softwood log exports from lands
west of the 100th Meridian and in the contiguous States.
Scenarios and Combinations
The specific scenarios and their combinations are:
1. Plans
2. Plans, owls
3. Plans, owls, logx1
4. Plans, owls, logx2
General Economic Framework and Expected Economic Impacts
Reductions in public harvest, relative to levels in the base scenario, would raise projected
stumpage prices and stimulate some partially compensating response in private harvest.
The extent and duration of this private substitution will depend on the price sensitivity of
private supply and the availability of inventory above minimum harvest age.
Market equilibrium in these regional markets insure that adjustments will be made for
changes in the component parts of regional timber supply functions. Four component
parts are considered in regional timber supply functions. Each component part represents
different collective behavior on the part of a specific ownership (National Forest, other
Government [including BLM], forest industry, and other private). The two private owner-
ships are assumed to have different reactions in terms of responding to changes in price
and available inventory levels. Harvest levels on public lands are assumed to be set by
policy action rather than market forces or inventory conditions.
34
Economic Impacts
A general summary of projections for selected variables is given in the following tabulation.
U.S. softwood lumber consumption, softwood lumber imports from Canada, softwood
plywood consumption, softwood lumber price index, softwood plywood price index, soft-
wood timber harvest, regional softwood stumpage prices, and regional production of
softwood lumber and plywood for the base analysis and four scenarios, 1988, 1991, 1995,
and 2000
U.S. softwood lumber consumption by base and scenario (MMBF)
BASE
+PLANS
+OWLS
+LOGX1
+LOGX2
1988
47,922
47,922
47,922
47,922
47,922
1991
48,410
48,354
48,300
48,273
47,793
1995
47,719
47,268
46,902
46,975
47,172
2000
45,240
44,722
44,637
44,652
44,710
U.S. softwood lumber imports from Canada by base and scenario (MMBF)
BASE
+PLANS
+OWLS
+LOGX1
+LOGX2
1988
14,885
14,885
14,885
14,885
14,885
1991
14,726
14,881
14,977
14,910
14,531
1995
13,510
13,795
14,491
14,300
13,253
2000
10,118
11,212
13,693
13,073
10,358
U.S. softwood plywood consumption by base and scenario (MMSF, 3/8")
BASE
+PLANS
+OWLS
+LOGX1
+LOGX2
1988
19,579
19,579
19,579
19,579
19,579
1991
18,995
18,973
18,952
18,960
18,980
1995
17,921
17,800
17,810
17,750
17,747
2000
17,052
16,836
16,696
16,659
16,832
U.S. softwood lumber price index by base and scenario (1967=100)
BASE
+PLANS
+OWLS
+LOGX1
+LOGX2
1988
123.8
123.8
123.8
123.8
123.8
1991
136.5
138.0
139.6
140.0
143.4
1995
145.7
153.0
158.7
157.5
152.0
2000
143.3
149.2
148.1
149.1
148.5
35
U.S. softwood plywood price index by base and scenario (1967=100)
BASE
+PLANS
+OWLS
+LOGX1
+LOGX2
1
1988
99.3
99.3
99.3
99.3
99.3
1991
103.7
104.7
106.6
106.2
102.8
1995
122.0
124.2
122.6
125.4
129.0
2000
107.6
113.5
117.4
118.7
113.4
U.S. softwood timber harvest by base and scenario (MMCF)
1
BASE
+PLANS
+OWLS
+LOGX1
+LOGX2
1988
7,453
7,453
7,453
7,453
7,453
1991
7,382
7,352
7,333
7,302
7,059
1995
7,289
7,191
7,063
7,054
6,985
1
2000
7,217
6,993
6,655
6,698
6,860
Base softwood stumpage prices by region (1967$/MBF)
NO
so
RK
PNW-E
PNW-W
PSW
I
1988
13.31
39.83
8.45
27.27
42.51
30.07
1991
13.74
41.68
8.88
36.16
52.85
48.37
1995
14.17
45.51
16.30
32.83
55.54
61.22
2000
14.35
53.74
26.07
42.80
49.19
63.67
Base + plans softwood stumpage prices by region (1967$/MBF)
I
NO
SO
RK
PNW-E
PNW-W
PSW
1988
13.31
39.83
8.45
27.27
42.51
30.07
1991
13.74
42.35
10.55
50.03
57.05
53.63
1995
14.17
50.15
21.67
61.59
71.76
75.06
1
2000
14.35
63.27
31.23
50.80
65.98
75.35
Base + plans + owls softwood stumpage prices by region (1967$/MBF)
NO
so
RK
PNW-E
PNW-W
PSW
1
1988
13.31
39.83
8.45
27.27
42.51
30.07
1991
13.74
43.12
11.18
52.43
63.90
56.62
1995
14.17
55.46
24.73
68.88
92.95
82.83
2000
14.35
67.29
30.33
53.03
78.23
78.41
36
Base + plans + owls + logx1 softwood stumpage prices by region (1967$/MBF)
NO
so
RK
PNW-E
PNW-W
PSW
1988
13.31
39.83
8.45
27.27
42.51
30.07
1991
13.74
43.23
11.48
52.48
59.71
56.68
1995
14.17
54.02
24.36
67.16
89.03
82.75
2000
14.35
66.51
32.67
54.79
76.74
78.68
Base + plans + owls + logx2 softwood stumpage prices by region (1967$/MBF)
NO
so
RK
PNW-E
PNW-W
PSW
1988
13.31
39.83
8.45
27.27
42.51
30.07
1991
13.74
47.27
13.37
54.99
42.52
57.68
1995
14.17
51.58
25.38
63.57
60.98
78.40
2000
14.35
63.11
35.75
53.09
70.10
75.71
Base regional production of softwood lumber by region (MMBF)
PNW-W
PNW-E
PSW
1988
9,322
2,884
5,179
1991
9,097
2,939
5,054
1995
8,718
3,048
4,944
2000
8,711
3,435
4,672
Base + plans regional production of softwood lumber by region (MMBF)
PNW-W
PNW-E
PSW
1988
9,322
2,884
5,179
1991
9,050
2,824
4,929
1995
8,287
2,840
4,546
2000
7,959
2,873
4,079
Base + plans + owls regional production of softwood lumber by region (MMBF)
PNW-W
PNW-E
PSW
1988
9,322
2,884
5,179
1991
8,896
2,816
4,882
1995
7,203
2,852
4,395
2000
6,035
2,820
3,755
37
Base + plans + owls + logx1 regional production of softwood lumber (MMBF)
PNW-W
PNW-E
PSW
1988
9,322
2,884
5,179
1991
9,059
2,818
4,884
1995
7,635
2,835
4,389
2000
6,638
2,846
3,775
Base + plans + owls + logx2 regional production of softwood lumber (MMBF)
1
PNW-W
PNW-E
PSW
1988
9,322
2,884
5,179
1991
10,613
2,853
4,877
1995
10,728
2,828
4,289
1
2000
10,664
2,871
3,776
Base regional production of softwood plywood (MMS, 3/8")
PNW-W
PNW-E
PSW
1
1988
7,638
768
196
1991
7,308
691
169
1995
6,799
691
221
2000
6,023
695
185
Base + plans regional production of softwood plywood (MMSF,3/8*)
1
PNW-W
PNW-E
PSW
1988
7,638
768
196
1991
7,286
674
168
1995
6,571
558
215
2000
5,384
596
182
Base + plans + owls regional production of softwood plywood (MMSF,3/8*)
PNW-W
PNW-E
PSW
1988
7,638
768
196
1991
7,232
679
171
1995
6,093
572
196
2000
4,657
603
194
38
Base + plans + owls + logx1 regional production of softwood plywood (MMSF,3/8")
PNW-W
PNW-E
PSW
1988
7,638
768
196
1991
7,276
674
164
1995
6,255
560
209
2000
4,788
598
197
Base + plans + owls + logx2 regional production of softwood plywood (MMSF.3/8")
PNW-W
PNW-E
PSW
1988
7,638
768
196
1991
7,472
654
150
1995
7,031
451
206
2000
5,996
476
183
The various scenarios were constructed by assuming that reductions in Federal harvest
flows started in FY1991 and that policy changes took effect in 1991. For most variables,
there are only small impacts in FY1991 because of remaining Federal timber under
contract and the speed of most economic adjustment processes. It takes several years for
the declines in National Forest harvest flows to reach their full economic impacts. Immedi-
ate reactions to implementation of the ISC report are difficult to estimate because of the
uncertainty as to how the implementation may be carried out.
Plans Scenario
Compared with the base projection, harvest levels from National Forests in the three West
Coast States decline 18 percent. These harvest declines lead to increases in stumpage
prices. Higher stumpage prices reduce the competitiveness of producers in the Pacific
Northwest and Pacific Southwest regions relative to producers in other regions, thereby
forcing downward adjustments in regional lumber and plywood production. Falling lumber
and plywood production eventually lead to lower stumpage prices. In the face of rising
wood costs, the region's competitive position deteriorates, profits fall, and solidwood
output and capacity decline. By the mid 1990's, lumber output in the plans scenario is 1.0
billion board feet below the level in the base projection. Plywood production is also lower.
These higher stumpage prices lead to higher harvest on private timberlands, especially in
the Pacific Northwest region, that offset some of the reduction in Federal harvest. In 1995,
18 percent of the reduction in Federal harvest is offset in the Pacific Southwest Region and
51 percent for the Pacific Northwest Region.
In the Pacific Northwest Region, private timberland owners are unable to sustain harvest
increases (stimulated by higher prices in the early 1990's) past 1995.
Harvest reductions in the Pacific Southwest and Pacific Northwest Regions have only
modest impacts on other domestic regions and final product markets. While there is some
response to higher product prices, the bulk of the long-term adjustment is borne within the
two regions and by lower domestic consumption and expanded lumber imports. By 2000,
lumber prices are 4 percent higher while consumption is 1 percent lower.
39
Plans Plus Owls Scenario
This scenario includes additional reductions resulting from implementation of the ISC
recommendations. These harvest declines lead to rapid increases in stumpage prices.
Higher stumpage prices reduce the competitiveness of producers in the Pacific Northwest
and Pacific Southwest regions relative to producers in other regions, thereby forcing
downward adjustments in regional lumber and plywood production. Rapidly falling lumber
and plywood production eventually lead to lower stumpage prices. In the Douglas-fir
subregion, stumpage price growth accelerates from roughly 1.2 percent in the base
projection to 4.6 percent in the plans plus owls scenario. In the face of rising wood costs,
1
the region's competitive position deteriorates, profits fall, and solidwood output and ca-
pacity drop. By the mid 1990's, lumber output is below the levels in the base projection.
Plywood production is also lower.
Higher stumpage prices lead to higher harvest on private timberlands that offset some of
the reduction in Federal harvest especially in the Pacific Northwest region. Table 3 shows
the same information as Table 1 for Federal lands, but also shows the expected timber
harvest response on private lands. In total, the increase in private harvest by 1995 would
offset about half the reduction in Federal harvest. However, this level of harvest could not
be sustained on private lands, and by 2000 the harvest reduction on Federal and private
lands combined will be about 10 percent greater than on Federal lands alone.
In the Pacific Northwest Region, private timberland owners are unable to sustain harvest
increases (stimulated by higher prices in the early 1990's) past 1995. Forest industry
harvest levels for this scenario fall below the levels for the base projection by 2000.
Harvest reductions in the Pacific Southwest and Pacific Northwest Regions have only
modest impacts on other domestic regions and final product markets. While there is some
response to higher product prices, the bulk of the long-term adjustment is borne within the
two regions and by lower domestic consumption and expanded lumber imports. The most
severe impacts within the two regions are in the lumber industry where production falls by
30 percent by 2000. This amounts to a loss of 4.2 billion board feet of production in the
Pacific Southwest and Pacific Northwest Regions combined. This reduced production
leads to increased imports from Canada (3.6 billion board feet), slight increases in produc-
1
tion of other U.S. regions, and a drop in U.S. consumption of 0.6 billion board feet.
Southern lumber production while increasing early in the decade (0.3 billion board feet in
1995) cannot sustain those increases. By 2000, lumber prices are 3 percent higher while
consumption is 1 percent lower.
Plans Plus Owls Plus Logx1 Scenario
This scenario assumes implementation of elimination of softwood log exports from public
lands west of the 100th Meridian. In this scenario, log exports were reduced by 500 million
board feet because of restrictions on timber from state timberlands. We assumed further
that this reduction would lead to a slight increase in both log exports from private timber-
lands and lumber exports from the region.
The restriction does lead to lower stumpage prices, decreased lumber imports from
Canada, and increased lumber production in the Douglas-fir subregion-6 percent by 1995
as compared with the plans plus owls scenario. Its impacts are almost all in the Douglas-fir
subregion, but within the subregion its impacts are most evident in western Washington.
40
Plans Plus Owls Plus Logx2 Scenario
This scenario assumes a complete restriction of log exports from both public and private
timberlands west of the 100th Meridian and in the contiguous States. These log export
restrictions were assumed to be implemented in 1991. The impact of this scenario focuses
almost completely on western Washington and western Oregon that in 1988 accounted
for 86 percent of the total log exports.
Such a restriction would lead to a significant increase in regional competitiveness of the
Douglas-fir subregion relative to other producing regions. Stumpage prices drop by a third
relative to the plans plus owls scenario and to just slightly more than those in the base plus
plans scenario. Stumpage prices in the rest of the Pacific Northwest and Pacific Southwest
Regions drop by smaller amounts. In this scenario, these lower stumpage prices lead to
increased regional and national lumber production, increased lumber exports (partly to
offset the loss in log exports), and reductions in lumber imports relative to the plans plus
owls scenario.
In this scenario, we assumed that lumber exports increased during the 1990's by 2 billion
board feet from the Douglas-fir subregion. Lumber imports from Canada fall from the levels
associated with the plans and plans plus owls scenarios to about those levels observed
in the base scenario. Lumber production in the Douglas-fir subregion increases by 50
percent over the levels achieved in the plans plus owls scenario and 23 percent over the
base scenario. This simulation improves the competitive position of the Douglas-fir region
relative to the the rest of Washington and Oregon and California where lumber production
drops slightly.
41
Impiementation
of
the
Actual or
Actual or Projected
Current
Projected
Final Plans plus
Plans
Final Plans
ISC Strategy
Forests and Districts
Affected by ISC Strategy
1995
2000
1995
2000
(Million Board Feet)
Washington National Forests
Gifford Pinchot
388
334
334
189
189
1
Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie
170
108
108
45
45
Okanogap
63
63
63
59
59
Olympic
186
132
132
43
43
1
Wenatchee
136
136
136
83
83
Subtotal
943
752
752
419
419
Oregon National Forests
Deschutes
202
100
100
91
91
Mt. Hood
255
193
193
154
154
1
Rogue River
137
120
120
85
85
Siskiyou
160
160
160
119
119
Suislaw
335
335
335
198
198
Umpqua
340
334
334
273
273
1
Willamette
568
491
491
333
333
Winema
199
115
115
110
110
Oregon BLM Districts
Salem
239
239
239
62
62
Eugene
223
223
223
59
59
Roseburg
247
247
247
103
103
Medford
213
213
213
123
123
Coos Bay
254
254
254
96
96
Subtotal
3,385
3,024
3,024
1,805
1,805
California. National Forests
Klamath
200
142
142
110
110
Mendocino
93
84
84
66
66
Shasta-Tripity
226
224
224
129
129
Six Rivers
175
150
150
92
92
California BLM District
Ukiah
9
9
9
3
3
Subtotal
699
609
609
395
395
Total Public
5,018
4,406
4,406
2,625
2,625
Private Lands
Western Washington & Oregon
7,235
7,505
7,270
7,820
6,940
Eastern Washington & Oregon
630
935
650
1,005
665
California
2,115
2,240
2,140
2,300
9.980
10,680
10,060
10,220
7,605
The timber volume shown for projected final plans in these forests could
change up to plus or minus 10 percent in actual final plans. A mid-point of
this range is shown in order to assess the impact of implementing the ISC
trategy.
Actual harvest shown for private lands in the "current plans" column.
NOTE: Final BLM new plan sale levels will not be known until the new plans
are completed in 1992. Existing plan levels are carried into years
1995 and 2000 for comparative purposes only.
42
REGIONAL AND LOCAL EFFECTS
Background
This section of the report presents:
o
Estimated effects on employment caused by changes in timber harvest levels on
National Forests and BLM Districts assuming full implementation of the ISC Strat-
egy.
o
Estimated changes in Federal revenue from National Forests and BLM Districts
assuming full implementation of the ISC Strategy.
Estimated changes in payments to States and counties from Federal revenues
generated on National Forests and BLM Districts assuming full implementation of
the ISC Strategy.
Employment is affected by technology and other factors that change over time. The
employment multipliers used in this study represent past gains in efficiency; however, no
attempt was made to project this into the future. The emphasis is on change in employ-
ment from reduced timber availability: potential future gains in efficiency would apply to
any level of timber supply. This information was developed using historical relationships.
The IMPLAN input-output economic modeling system was the primary tool used in the
analysis.
Number of jobs was estimated in two steps. First, the change in the demand for processed
wood materials using harvested timber was estimated. Second, changes in employment
associated with meeting this level of demand were estimated. The second step, estimating
jobs, involved the use of the IMPLAN economic modeling system.
The first step, estimating the demand for products manufactured and exported from a
"local" area per million board feet of timber harvested, used the value of products sold by
sawmills as the primary information source. The product values were based upon timber
appraisal estimates from detailed mill studies periodically performed by the Forest Service.
The value of products per unit of harvest multiplied by the harvest level was used as the
estimate of demand for wood products.
The second step, estimating the number of jobs affected by meeting the demand for wood
products, was accomplished using called IMPLAN. The IMPLAN system is a software and
database package that scales the national input-output model of the U.S. economy built
by the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis down to fit a desired
grouping of counties. Primary data used to scale the national model down to fit local areas
is the data series from the various economic censuses taken by the U.S. Department of
Commerce and payroll and employment data collected by the States and reported to the
Department of Commerce. Supplemental data compiled by Dun and Bradstreet is also
used in this process.
IMPLAN models are general economic "input-output" systems used to estimate the eco-
nomic consequences of delivering products to meet demand by tracing supply require-
ments backward through all affected business linkages. At each stage of these backward
linkages, persons are employed to produce the required products. IMPLAN models are
usually constructed for a "local" economy (individual or groups of counties) affected by the
activities of a particular National Forest. As a result, not all possible supply linkages are
contained in these "local" economies. The total number of jobs gained or lost as a result
43
of various levels of harvest from the National Forests are estimated as the sum of all jobs
affected in the "local" economy through the backward supply linkages needed to deliver
wood products to export (final) demand.
The information presented here includes the employment effects of processing the timber
harvest through the economy. These effects can be estimated in three components:
The direct effect on the sector(s) either exporting processed wood products from
the economic area or selling these products to final consumers within the area,
The indirect effect on the other production, trade and service sectors within the
1
economy that provide the successive rounds of production inputs needed to manu-
facture the processed wood products sold to export or final consumption, and
The induced effect of the consumer spending within the economic area associated
with the jobs supporting the direct and indirect production.
The models were used to develop the relationship between the processing of the timber
harvest and the total employment supported by it. These relationships provide a way to
examine the employment implications of the expected harvest. Two factors could alter
these estimates. First, the mix of future processing (lumber, plywood, pulp, log exports,
etc.) is not known. In addition, the multipliers are based upon past production technology
which will continue to change in the future, changing the relationship between timber
harvest and the number of jobs supported. Improvements in processing efficiency have
continually reduced the labor requirements per million board feet of timber and these
improvements are expected to continue into the future.
Economic Areas
Economic areas made up of groups of counties were identified for each forest and District
with spotted owls. An IMPLAN model was constructed for each of these economic areas.
The rule used to delineate these areas in Washington and Oregon was that approximately
80 percent of the Forests' timber harvest historically has received primary processing
within the area. Primary processing is defined as plywood and veneer, lumber, particle
board, and other similar manufacturing. In California, a similar rule based on log flows to
mills and the relative importance to local mills was used.
1
In Washington and Oregon, the Forests and Districts economic areas are:
Forest Service
0 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie - Whatcom, Skagit, Snohomish, King, and Pierce Counties,
Washington.
-
Olympic - Clailam, Jefferson, Grays Harbor, and Mason Counties, Washington
o Gifford Pinchot - Lewis, Cowlitz, Clark, Skamania, and Klicitat Counties, Washing-
ton.
4
Okanogan - Okanogan County, Washington.
Wenatchee - Chelan, Kittitas, Yakima, and Douglas Counties, Washington
MT. Hood - Multnomah, Clackamas, Hood River, and Wasco Counties, Oregon.
o Siuslaw - Tillamook, Polk, Lincoln, Benton, and Lane Counties, Oregon.
44
Willamette - Marion, Linn, and Lane Counties, Oregon.
Umpqua - Douglas County, Oregon.
Siskiyou- Coos, Curry, Josephine, and Jackson Counties, Oregon.
Rogue River - Jackson, and Josephine Counties, Oregon.
Winema - Klamath County, Oregon.
Deschutes - Deschutes County, Oregon.
Bureau of Land Management
Salem - Benton, Clackamas, Columbia, Lincoln, Linn, Marion, Multnomah, Polk,
Tillamook, Washington, and Yamhill Counties, Oregon.
Eugene - Lane County, Oregon.
Roseburg - Douglas County, Oregon.
Coos Bay - Coos and Curry Counties, Oregon.
Medford and Lakeview - Jackson, Josephine, and Klamath Counties, Oregon.
California
In California, economic effects are centered in the north coast and north central. areas of
the State. The north coast area affected includes Del Norte, Humboldt, and Mendocino
counties. The north central area most affected includes Glenn, Tehama, Shasta, Trinity,
and Siskiyou counties. The Six Rivers National Forest primarily affects the north coast area.
The Mendocino National Forest affects both the north coast and north central areas. The
Klamath and Shasta-Trinity National Forests primarily affect the north central area. A major
portion of the timber from the Klamath National Forest is milled in southern Oregon
counties.
Employment Effects
Table 4 displays projected employment effects. Effects are shown in two steps. The first
step is the employment effect expected from implementing the projected final plans for the
Forest Service and existing plans for the Bureau of Land Management. The second step
shows employment effects after implementing the ISC Recomendations on affected Na-
tional Forests and BLM Districts.
Implementation of the estimated final plans for the Forest Service would result in a decline
in employment of 6,247 people. Implementation of the ISC Recommendations would result
in a further decline of 19,162 people for a total decline in employment of 25,409 people
for the three West Coast States as compared with estimated employment at the level
associated with current plans. It is important to keep in mind that these employment
estimates are for both direct and indirect employment associated with timber harvest on
just those National Forests and BLM Districts affected by the ISC Recommendations. It
does not include private and other public ownerships, nor does it include Forest Service
and BLM lands not affected by the ISC Conservation Strategy.
45
Scientific Committee Conservation Strategy
Actual or
Actual or Projected
Current
Projected
Final Plans plus
Plans
Final Plans
ISC Strategy
Forests and Districts
Affected by ISC Strategy
1995
1995
2000
1995
2000
(Number of Employees)
Washington National Forests
Gifford Pinchot
4,687
4,035
4,035
2,283
2,283
1
Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie
1,943
1,234
1,234
514
514
Okanogan
592
592
592
555
555
Olympic
1,843
1,100
1,100
426
426
Wenatchee
1,452
1,452
1,452
886
886
Subtotal
10,518
8,414
8,414
4,665
4,665
Oregon National Forests
Deschutes
1,380
683
683
615
615
Mt. Hood
2,924
2,106
2,106
1,680
1,680
1
Rogue River
1,345
1,178
1,178
835
835
Siskiyou
1,872
1,872
1,872
1,392
1,392
Siuslaw
4,087
4,087
4,087
2,416
2,416
Umpqua
3,492
3,430
3,430
2,804
2,804
Willamette
6,157
5,322
5,322
3,610
3,610
Winema
1,485
858
858
821
821
Oregon BLM Districts
Salem
2,470
2,470
2,470
641
641
Eugene
4,473
4,473
4,473
654
654
Roseburg
2,612
2,612
2,612
1,089
1,089
Medford
2,525
2,525
2,525
1,458
1,458
Coos Bay
2,300
2,300
2,300
869
869
Subtotal
35,122
31,918
31,918
18,884
18,884
California 1 National Forests
Klamath
1,980
1,420
1,420
1,100
1,100
Mendocino
809
731
731
505
505
1
Shasta-Tripity
2,621
2,621
2,621
1,544
1,544
Six Rivers
2,100
1,800
1,800
1,104
1,104
California BLM District
Ukiah
90
90
90
30
30
Subtotal
7,600
6,662
6,662
4,283
4,283
Total
53,240
46,993
46,993
27,831
27,831
Numbers for projected final plans for these forests are based on
projected timber volumes that could change up to plus or minus 10 percent in
actual final plans. The numbers are based on a midpoint of this range in order
to assess the impact of implementing the ISC strategy.
NOTE: Final BLM new plan sale levels will not be known until the new plans are
completed in 1992. Existing plan levels are carried into years 1995 and
2000 for comparative purposes only.
46
For comparison, in 1988 about 250,000 people were employed in the forest products
industries in Washington, Oregon, and California. Employment figures shown in this report
include direct industry employment and jobs that support this direct employment. Esti-
mates range from 40-60 percent of total employment that could be classified as forest
industry employment. Therefore, roughly, half of the employment figures shown here,
about 12-13,000 jobs are forestry industry. For perspective, this would account for 5
percent of total industry employment in the three States. However, since employment
impacts are concentrated in certain areas, the percentage would be much greater in these
localities.
On a State-by-State basis, the largest loss of jobs from Federal harvest reductions will be
in the State of Oregon; 16,238 fewer jobs will be available. In Washington, employment will
decline by 5,853 jobs; and in California, job loss will total 3,317.
Based on available inventories, an increase in harvest on private lands could be expected
during the early 1990's in response to higher stumpage prices. Table 5 shows that this
private response could provide employment for 12,137 people in 1995. However, by the
year 2000 the capability of private lands to offset reductions in Federal timber harvest will
have been exhausted, and the net effect will be employment levels even lower than the
initial impact caused by reduced Federal harvests. Employment as compared with current
planned levels of harvest on Federal lands will be down an addition 2,756 people in the
year 2000. Thus, harvest response on private lands will mitigate the employment impact
in 1995 to a loss of 13,272 jobs; but by 2000, the loss will be even greater than from Federal
harvest reductions alone and losses will total 28,165 jobs.
An additional increment of reduced employment is expected to occur in the Federal sector.
The Forest Service estimates that employment would be reduced by about 1,300 positions
in Washington and Oregon and about 200 positions in California. The Bureau of Land
Management should not be greatly affected in the near future (through 1992) due to the
need for redesigning proposed sales, backlog on reforestation and timber stand improve-
ment work, and developing land use plans. As the land use plans are completed, further
impacts on employment will be analyzed. Reduction in Federal employment is a significant
consideration. Many of these people live and work in the same rural communities where
forest industries are a dominant part of the economy. Their loss will place an added burden
on communities.
As the figures indicate, no subarea fares well. All may experience significant reductions in
their employment base. It is difficult to point to any single area or community as being
particularly adversely affected so widespread are the effects. When the Forest Service and
BLM potential harvest reductions are looked at together, it is obvious that Oregon, starting
with the west central area to the foothills of the Cascades and southward to the California
state line, will be faced with significant economic disruption. The combined effect of the
Willamette, Siuslaw, and Umpqua National Forests and the Eugene, Salem, and Roseburg
Districts of the Bureau of Land Management harvest reductions may affect 12,000 jobs.
The combined effect of FS and BLM reductions in the Southwestern Oregon coast and
Rogue River Valley may affect an additional 3,500 jobs.
In Washington, starting with the Olympic Peninsula and continuing southward and west-
ward to the Cowlitz River Valley and into the Columbia Gorge, about 3800 jobs may be
affected. While the effects in Northwest Washington may be more widely dispersed
through areas with significantly diverse economies and urban populations, the reduction
in jobs will significantly affect individual communities in the rural areas.
47
Table 5--Changes in Timber-Based Employment That Would Result from
Implementation of the Northern Spotted Owl Conservation Strategy
Change from Current Level With
Implementation of ISC Strategy
1995
2000
Washington
I
Forest Service
-5,853
-5,853
Bureau of Land Mgmt.
Total
-5,853
-5,853
Oregon
Forest Service
-8,569
-8,569
1
Bureau of Land Mgmt.
-7,669
-7,669
Total
-16,238
-16,238
Northern California
Forest Service
-3,257
-3,257
Bureau of Land Mgmt.
-60
-60
I
Total
-3,317
-3,317
Total Public
-25,409
-25,409
Private lands
Western WA & OR
+6,201
-3,127
1
Eastern WA & OR
+3,975
+371
California
+1,961
Total
+12,137
-2,756
Net Change
-13,272
-28,165
1
1
1
48
Employment effects in California are centered in the north coast and north central areas
of the State. Private timber supplies account for approximately 85 percent of the logs
available to mills in the north coast area, while federal timber supplies account for 15
percent. In the north central area, federal supplies account for about 50 percent of the logs
available to mills. As a result, overall employment effects will be felt more strongly in this
area. Individual companies without access to private timber supplies will be particularly
affected in both areas.
Employment effects will be more intense in Trinity and Siskiyou Counties than in the other
affected counties in California. Employment related to the harvesting and processing of
federal timber are a much larger share of the total economy in these two counties than in
other affected counties. In these two counties, employment related to the processing of
Federal timber accounts for between 10 and 20 percent of total employment.
Timber-based Revenues
Timber harvest throughout the area is an important source of Federal revenue. Table 6
shows estimates of timber-based revenue to the US Treasury. These estimates were made
using recent prices and projected changes in stumpage prices from the TAMM analysis
discussed previously. The possible reductions in Federal harvest caused by implementa-
tion of the ISC Recommendations are large and, as a result, significant increases in
stumpage prices are expected. The analysis shows that implementation of the ISC recom-
mendation by the Forest Service and BLM would reduce timber-based revenue by about
$148 million in the three West Coast States in 1995, and $229 million in 2000.
Revenues would decline about $28 million from Forest Service lands and $120 million from
Bureau of Land Management lands in 1995. In 2000, the decline in revenues from Forest
Service lands would be $99 million and on Bureau of Land Management lands, $130
million.
Future economic conditions are uncertain; therefore, for comparison Table 7 shows rev-
enues from Federal timber harvest assuming no change in price during the entire decade.
Under this scenario, implementation of the ISC recommendation would have a larger
downward effect on revenues because there is no price offset to volume reductions. In
total, revenues to the Treasury would decline by $501 million in 1995 and 2000 (both price
and volume are constant after 1995).
Payments to Counties
Revenue sharing, commonly refered to as "payments to counties," is estimated using
projected changes in harvest, and forest- or district- specific long-term stumpage prices.
Total revenue is estimated for each forest or district, and county shares are estimated
based on the percent of a National Forest's acreage in each county or established O&C
ratios. It is important to remember that, for the purposes of this report, the only payments
to counties that are considered are those associated with National Forests and BLM
Districts affected by the ISC Recommendations.
49
Table 6--Timber-Based Revenue After Implementation of the Interagency
Scientific Committee Conservation Strategy--Rising Price Assumption
Actual or
Actual or Projected
Current
Projected
Final Plans plus
Plans
Final Plans
ISC Strategy
Forests and Districts
Affected by ISC Strategy
1995
1995
2000
1995
2000
(Millions of 1989 Dollars)
Washington National
Forests
Gifford Pinchot-
71
79
82
58
55
1
Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie
32
26
27
14
13
Okanogan
7
12
8
13
8
Olympic
27
21
22
11
10
1
Wenatchee
15
28
18
19
11
Subtotal
151
166
156
114
97
Oregon National Forests
Deschutes
22
21
13
21
12
Mt. Hood
53
50
51
51
49
Rogue River
26
29
31
27
26
Siskiyou
37
48
50
46
44
Siuslaw
85
109
113
84
80
Umpqua
76
97
101
102
97
Willamette
125
139
144
122
116
Winema
42
46
29
49
29
Oregon BLM Districts
Salem
73
94
98
32
30
Eugene
68
88
92
30
29
Roseburg
50
64
67
35
33
Medford
45
59
61
44
42
Coos Bay
69
89
92
44
41
Subtotal
773
933
942
686
628
California. National Forests
Klamath
21
18
18
16
14
Mendocino
11
12
12
9
9
Shasta-Tripity
38
46
44
30
27
Six Rivers
29
31
29
21
19
California BLM District
Ukiah
1
2
2
1
1
Subtotal
100
109
105
76
69
Total
1024
1208
1203
876
795
Numbers for projected final plans for these forests are based on
projected timber volumes that could change up to plus or minus 10 percent in
actual final plans. The numbers are based on a midpoint of this range in order
to assess the impact of implementing the ISC strategy.
NOTE: Final BLM new plan sale levels will not be known until the new plans are
completed in 1992. Existing plan levels are carried into years 1995 and
2000 for comparative purposes only.
50
Table 7--Timber-Based Revenue After Implementation of the Interagency
Scientific Committee Conservation Strategy - Constant Price Assumption
Actual or
Actual or Projected
Current
Projected
Final Plans plus
Plans
Final Plans
ISC Strategy
Forests and Districts
Affected by ISC Strategy
1995
1995
2000
1995
2000
(Millions of 1989 Dollars)
Washington National Forests
Gifford Pinchot-
71
61
61
35
35
1
Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie
32
20
20
8
8
Okanogan
7
7
7
6
6
Olympic
27
16
16
6
6
Wenatchee
15
15
15
9
9
Subtotal
151
119
119
64
64
Oregon National Forests
Deschutes
22
11
11
10
10
Mt. Hood
53
38
38
31
31
1
Rogue River
26
23
23
16
16
Siskiyou
37
37
37
28
28
Suislay
85
85
85
50
50
Umpqua-
76
75
75
61
61
1
Willamette
125
108
108
73
73
Winema
42
25
25
23
23
Oregon BLM Districts
Salem
73
73
73
19
19
Eugene
68
68
68
18
18
Roseburg
50
50
50
21
21
Medford
45
45
45
26
26
Coos Bay
69
69
69
26
26
Subtotal
773
707
707
402
402
California, National Forests
Klamath
21
15
15
12
12
1
Mendocino
11
10
10
7
7
Shasta-Tripity
38
38
38
22
22
Six Rivers
29
25
25
15
15
California BLM District
Ukiah
1
1
1
Subtotal
100
89
89
56
56
Total
1,024
915
915
523
523
Less than one million.
Numbers for projected final plans for these forests are based on
projected timber volumes that could change up to plus or minus 10 percent in
actual final plans. The numbers are based on a midpoint of this range in order
to assess the impact of implementing the ISC strategy.
NOTE: Final BLM new plan sale levels will not be known until the new plans are
completed in 1992. Existing plan levels are carried into years 1995 and
2000 for comparative purposes only.
51
With Stumpage Price Increase
Table 8 shows estimates of payments to counties in 1995 for implementation of the ISC
Recommendations by the Forest Service and the Bureau of Land Management.
The following tabulation shows changes in payments at the State level for 1995 and 2000.
This change reflects the reduction in timber harvest from current planning levels to the level
in the ISC Conservation Strategy, and accounts for the expected rise in stumpage prices
as a result of this harvest reduction.
Washington
Oregon
California
Total
1
(million dollars)
1995
Forest Service
-9.4
+6.9
-5.2
-7.7
Bureau of Land Management
----
-66.0
1/
-66.0
1
Total
-9.4
-59.1
-5.2
-73.7
2000
Forest Service
-13.3
-4.5
-6.6
-24.4
Bureau of Land Management
-
-70.6
1/
-70.6
I
Total
-13.3
-75.1
-6.6
-95.0
1/ Less than $0.1 million.
Because of the larger proportional payments by the BLM (O&C lands), 50 percent of
receipts as compared with 25 percent by the Forest Service, and because of the large
1
timber volume reductions on BLM lands, most of the loss in payments to States is from the
BLM. Forest Service payments actually show an increase in Oregon in 1995 due to the
sharp expected increase in stumpage prices. In total, payments to the three States are
expected to be about $74 million lower in 1995 and $95 million lower in 2000. About 80
percent of the reduction will be in the State of Oregon.
1
Without Stumage Price Increase
The previous analysis is based on an assumed significant rise in stumpage prices associ-
ated with a reduction in the volume of Federal timber available for harvest. For comparison,
Table 9 and the following tabulation show the comparable statistics using no change in
stumpage prices from the 1989 average harvest value.
I
52
Table 8 Payments to States After Implementation of the Interagency Scientific
Committee Conservation Strategy - Rising Price Assumption
Current
Final Plans
Final Plans plus
Plans
ISC Strategy
1995
1995
2000
1995
2000
(Thousands of 1989 Dollars)
Washington National Forests
Gifford Pinchot-
16,976
18,851
19,582
13,810
13,148
Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie
7,469
6,121
6,359
3,302
3,144
Okanogan
1,553
2,920
1,848
3,054
1,803
Olympic
7,264
5,592
5,809
2,804
2,670
Wenatchee
3,234
6,080
3,849
4,145
2,448
Subtotal
36,496
39,565
37,446
27,115
23,213
Oregon National Forests
Deschutes
4,571
4,254
2,693
4,277
2,525
Mt. Hood
11,354
10,548
10,957
10,896
10,374
Rogue River
5,568
6,291
6,535
5,769
5,493
Siskiyou
6,951
8,967
9,314
8,633
8,220
Siuslaw
21,267
27,435
28,498
20,992
19,986
Umpqua
13,017
16,495
17,134
17,454
16,618
Willamette
26,551
29,608
30,755
25,995
24,750
Winema
10,062
10,932
6,920
11,680
6,897
Oregon BLM Districts
Salem
38,809
50,064
52,004
16,813
16,007
Eugene
35,575
45,892
47,670
15,718
14,965
Roseburg
25,873
33,376
34,669
18,018
17,154
Medford
24,256
31,290
32,502
23,391
22,271
Coos Bay
37,192
44,478
46,202
21,763
20,720
Subtotal
261,045
319,628
325,855
201,399
185,981
California, National Forests
Klamath
4,229
3,731
3,579
3,172
2,890
Mendocino
2,494
2,771
2,658
21005
1,913
Shasta-Tripity
8,204
10,091
9,681
6,527
5,947
Six Rivers
6,991
7,371
7,071
4,962
4,521
California BLM District
Ukiah
54
67
64
24
22
Subtotal
21,973
24,030
23,053
16,785
15,293
Total
319,514
383,223
386,354
245,299
224,487
Numbers for projected final plans for these forests are based on
projected timber volumes that could change up to plus or minus 10 percent in
actual final plans. The numbers are based on a midpoint of this range in order
to assess the impact of implementing the ISC strategy.
NOTE: Final BLM new plan sale levels will not be known until the new plans
are completed in 1992. Existing plan levels are carried into years
1995 and 2000 for comparative purposes only.
53
Table 9 - Payments to States After Implementation of the Interagency Scientific
Committee Conservation Strategy - Constant Price Assumption
Current
Final Plans
Final Plans plus
Plans
ISC Strategy
1995
1995
2000
1995
2000
(Thousands of 1989 Dollars)
Washington National Forests
Gifford Pinchot-
16,976
14,614
14,614
8,269
8,269
1
Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie
7,469
4,745
4,745
1,977
1,977
Okanogan
1,553
1,553
1,553
1,454
1,454
Olympic
7,264
4,335
4,335
1,679
1,679
Wenatchee
3,234
3,234
3,234
1,974
1,974
1
Subtotal
36,496
28,481
28,481
15,354
15,354
Oregon National Forests
Deschutes
4,571
2,263
2,263
2,036
2,036
Mt. Hood
11,354
8,177
8,177
6,525
6,525
1
1
Rogue River
5,568
4,877
4,877
3,455
3,455
Siskiyou
6,951
6,951
6,951
5,170
5,170
Suislay
21,267
21,267
21,267
12,570
12,570
Umpqua-
13,017
12,787
12,787
10,452
10,452
Willamette
26,551
22,952
22,952
15,566
15,566
Winema
10,062
5,815
5,815
5,562
5,562
1
Oregon BLM Districts
Salem
38,809
38,809
38,809
10,068
10,068
Eugene
35,375
35,575
35,575
9,412
9,412
Roseburg
25,873
25,873
25,873
10,789
10,789
Medford
24,256
24,256
24,256
14,007
14,007
Coos Bay
37,192
37,192
37,192
14,057
14,057
1
Subtotal
261,044
246,792
246,792
119,667
119,667
California. National Forests
Klamath
4,229
3,033
3,033
2,350
2,350
1
Mendocino
2,494
2,252
2,252
1,555
1,555
Shasta-Tripity
8,204
8,204
8,204
4,835
4,835
Six Rivers
6,991
5,992
5,992
3,675
3,675
California BLM District
Ukiah
54
54
54
18
18
Subtotal
21,973
19,537
19,537
12,433
12,433
Total
319,514
294,810
294,810
147,454
147,454
1
Numbers for projected final plans for these forests are based on
projected timber volumes that could change up to plus or minus 10 percent in
actual final plans. The numbers are based on a midpoint of this range in order
to assess the impact of implementing the ISC strategy.
NOTE: Final BLM new plan sale levels will not be known until the new plans
are completed in 1992. Existing plan levels are carried into years
1995 and 2000 for comparative purposes only.
54
Washington
Oregon
California
Total
(million dollars)
1995
Forest Service
-21.1
-38.0
-9.5
-68.6
Bureau of Land Management
-
-103.9
1/
-103.4
Total
-21.1
-141.4
-9.5
-172.0
2000
Forest Service
-21.1
-38.0
-9.5
-68.6
Bureau of Land Management
-
-103.4
1/
-103.4
Total
-21.1
-141.4
-9.5
-172.0
1/ Less than $0.1 million.
With this constant price scenario, the decline in payments to States would be almost
double the amount shown with rising prices. Slightly more than 80 percent of this decline
would occur in the State of Oregon and in that State, three-quarters of the reduction would
be attributed to BLM lands.
Table 10 demonstrates the distribution of payments to counties using the constant price
assumption in 1995. The table shows the relative magnitude of impacts by county for
Washington and Oregon. While these distributions are based on the timber volume distri-
bution in 1995 at constant price, the table can be used to estimate proportionally county-
by-county impacts at varying price levels.
The table shows the largest reduction for any one county is estimated to occur in Douglas
County, Oregon, followed closely by Jackson and Lane Counties, Oregon. These counties
are in the south-central part of the State. The degree to which counties will be affected by
these revenue losses depends on the structure and strength of the local economy. Less
populated counties with smaller tax bases may be less able to absorb or offset reductions
than counties with larger populations and tax bases.
General Effects on Counties and Communities
Changes in timber supply will affect employment and income in timber processing and in
supporting industries throughout the range of owl habitat. The effects will be most keenly
felt by individuals losing employment and by the communities in which they live. The
duration of the effects will depend on the availability of other employment; the skills,
abilities, and willingness of individuals to relocate and take new jobs; family considera-
tions; and many other factors.
For some parts of the three affected States, such as in or near urban areas, opportunities
for making adjustments will be easier than in other areas. The communities that are most
vulnerable are those beyond commuting distance from urban centers that are growing and
offer opportunities for employment. In some cases, individuals will need to acquire new
skills to help themselves through a transition. Such training is not equally available in all
communities that may be affected. Some individuals may choose to move to a new area.
The housing market in the communities they live in will be an important factor in their ability
to move. The closer communities are. to urban areas with diversified and growing
economies, the more active the housing market is likely to be.
55
Table 10--Change in Estimated 1995 Payments to Counties after Implementation of the ISC
Spotted Owl Conservation Strategy
[Thousand of 1989 dollars]
Forest Service
Bureau of Land Management
Current
Owl
Current
Owl
Total
I
Area
plans
cons.
Change
plans
cons.
Change
change
Oregon
99,341
105,695
6,354
161,706
91,917
-69,789
-63,435
Benton
569
577
8
4,544
2,582
-1,962
-1,954
Clackmas
5,198
5,380
182
8,975
5,101
-3,874
-3,692
1
Columbia
3,331
1,894
-1,437
-1,437
Coos
724
827
103
9,541
5,423
-4,118
-4,015
Curry
4,277
5,451
1,174
5,902
3,355
-2,547
-1,373
Deschutes
2,831
2,185
-645
-645
Douglas
15,007
19,373
4,367
40,507
23,026
-17,481
-13,114
Hood River
2,164
2,239
75
75
1
Jackson
3,743
4,016
273
25,339
14,404
-10,935
-10,662
Jefferson
521
417
-104
-104
Josephine
2,300
2,899
600
19,534
11,103
-8,431
-7,831
Klamath
11,739
11,056
-683
3,784
2,151
-1,633
-2,316
Lake
499
386
-113
-113
Lane
26,202
27,017
814
24,692
14,036
-10,656
-9,842
I
Lincoln
5,933
6,010
77
582
331
-251
-174
Linn
7,722
7,759
38
4,269
2,426
-1,843
-1,805
Marion
2,937
2,972
35
2,361
1,342
-1,019
-984
Multnomah
736
761
25
1,763
1,003
-760
-735
Polk
11
10
-1
3,493
1,986
-1,507
-1,508
Tillamook
3,221
3,262
41
906
514
-392
-351
1
Wasco
2,122
2,197
75
75
Washington
1,019
579
-440
-440
Yamhill
888
900
12
1,164
661
-503
-491
Washington
36,497
27,115
-9,382
-
-9,382
1
Chelan
2,587
2,789
202
202
Callam
2,441
996
-1,445
-1,445
Clark
19
16
-3
-3
Cowlitz
281
242
-39
-39
Grays Harbor
753
307
-446
-446
Jefferson
3,295
1,346
-1,950
-1,950
I
King
821
383
-438
-438
Kittitas
783
761
-22
-22
Klickitat
122
106
-16
-16
Lewis
5,194
4,400
-794
-794
Mason
774
316
-458
-458
Okanogan
1,553
2,568
1,015
1,015
Pierce
319
148
-171
-171
Skagit
1,272
595
-677
-677
Skamania
11,024
9,483
-1,541
-1,541
Snohomishs
1,549
724
-825
-825
Whatcom
2,053
961
-1,092
-1,092
Yakima
1,655
973
-682
-682
56
The ability of individuals and communities to adjust is therefore heavily influenced by their
geographic location with respect to urban areas. In addition, adjustments are likely to be
easier in communities that: (1) are not primarily dependent on a single mill for the bulk of
their basic employment and income and (2) have some diversity in basic income, either
through business diversification or some other source of economic growth, such as an
increase of retirees.
Local effects will also be greatly influenced by the efficiency and determination of existing
wood processing and production industries. Some operations may continue to operate
profitably on a greater share of the reduced timber supply as less efficient operations close
down.
Given considerations as described above, on the maps in Appendix I the cross-hatched
areas in the three States may be most vulnerable to social and economic effects resulting
from potential reductions in timber supply. The red dots on the maps are those communi-
ties where: (1) a large share of employment is in the timber industry, (2) the timber industry
is dependent on National Forest and Bureau of Land Management timber for a large share
of its log supplies, and (3) other sectors of the economy are not experiencing healthy
economic growth. The most vulnerable areas are rural and straddle the Coast and Cas-
cade ranges of Washington, Oregon, and California.
Social and Other Impacts
There are many social and other impacts associated with the reductions in Federal timber
harvest analyzed in this report. Most of them are difficult to quantify. The brief discussion
here mainly lays out the kinds of impacts to be expected.
The major social impacts of reducing the ASQ for Federal lands is the loss of over 25,000
direct and indirect jobs. This will directly affect the lifestyles of those with timber-dependent
livelihoods and perhaps cause localized shifts in populations. The severity of impacts will
vary by community, depending on the amount of reduction in timber harvesting and upon
the degree to which particular communities are dependent on forest resources.
In rural areas where jobs are threatened, community cohesion will accelerate rapidly for
a time as common adversity is confronted in response to the collective perception that jobs
and livelihood are being sacrificed to protect old growth timber. This cohesion will likely
result in further entrenchment of the belief that the forests are not being fully utilized and
that environmentalists are "taking over. In these affected communities, the attitude toward
the Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management will decline. They will see these
agencies as giving in to the pressures of an elitist society. On the positive side, community
cohesion will be useful as individuals struggle to help pull each other through the crisis.
They will look to new entrepreneurs with mixed feelings-eager for job opportunities, but
resistant to changing their traditional way of earning a living. In communities hit hardest,
and after a period of unsuccessful job hunting, community cohesion will likely decline. The
decline will stem from a rift in these communities between those who already have found
work and those who have not. In severe cases of community dysfunction, increased rates
of domestic disputes, divorce, acts of violence, delinquency, vandalism, suicide, alco-
holism, and other social problems are to be expected.
In urban areas, a reduction in community cohesion is expected as old growth forests
become preserved at the expense of timber harvest. Urban residents' perceptions that the
resource use is out of balance will have been addressed. They will have been heard and
their wants, needs, and desires on this issue will have been satisfied for a time. Without
a common cause, cohesion will diminish, especially among the environmentally oriented
57
subsets of the urban populations, who will move on to other issues. Some disorientation
in urban communities' facilities and services is possible if large numbers of dislocated
workers relocate there from rural areas.
Small population shifts may take place in some rural areas in the short term. Over the long
term, larger out-migrations may occur in areas which have not adapted to the changing
mix of resource use. Shifts will occur mostly where there are major harvest reductions and
where there are no urban areas within work-driving distance. The central tendency will be
for the rural displaced workers to remain in their same communities, even if they have to
commute long distances to find jobs. While the regional shift is not likely to be significant,
1
some small remote communities may feel the impact, primarily in the form of a significantly
reduced tax base.
Reduced income and employment associated with a lower Federal timber sale program
have implications for other parts of the economy in the three West Coast States. For
example, tax revenues will fall, as will real estate values.
Tax revenue derived from income taxes at the state level would decline as income is
reduced. Reduced income would also cause a reduction in consumer purchases, resulting
in a reduction in revenue generated from state and county sale taxes.
Lower employment in the region implies some relocation of workers and their families to
1
other regions of the country. One result of this relocation would be a decline in residential
and commercial real estate values. This decline in real estate values would result in a
decline in property taxes collected by state and local governments.
Tax revenues generated from business would also decline under a scenario of lower
Federal timber sales. This revenue decline would be the result of declines in tax revenue
1
from the wood products industry as production falls and from tax revenue declines from
service industries in the region.
Summary of Economic Impacts and Implications for Mitigation Measures
The analysis of economic impacts has identified the size and geographic distribution of
the following effects:
I
0 Employment
0 Federal revenues from timber sales
0 Federal payments from timber sale revenues to counties
The analysis acknowledges that there will be some market-oriented mitigation of impacts.
For example, in the short term, private timber harvest will increase because of higher
stumpage prices and this will tend to offset a portion of the decline in employment and
income associated with implementation of the ISC recommendations. Implementation of
the ISC recommendations will lead to higher stumpage prices in the three West Coast
states and this will tend to offset a portion of the decline in payments to counties from
timber revenues.
In general, the effects on employment and income will be pervasive throughout the rural
and timber-dependent communities in western Washington, western Oregon, and north-
ern California.
58
General orders of magnitude for effects are:
o Federal harvest will support 25,000 fewer jobs in the three States. About half of
this will be offset by increased harvest on private lands in the short-term, but by the
end of the decade employment effects will be even greater.
O $148 million decline in Federal revenue from timber sales by 1995, and $229
million decline by 2000.
O About $74 million decline in payments to counties from Federal timber sale
revenue in 1995 growing to $95 million by 2000.
59
Literature Cited
Adams, D. M. and R. W. Haynes. 1980. The 1980 Softwood Timber Assessment Market
1
Model: Structure, Projections and Policy Simulations. Forest Science 26(3), Mono-
graph 22.
Haynes, R. W. and D. M. Adams. 1985. Simulations of the Effects of Alternative
Assumptions on Demand-Supply Determinants on the Timber Situation in the Unit-
ed States. USDA, Forest Service, Forest Resources Economics Research. Wash.,
1
D. C. U.S. Gov't. Printing Office.
Wack, P. 1985. Scenarios: Uncharted waters Ahead. Harvard Business Review.
63(6):139-150.
1
1
1
1
1
60
APPENDIX I
This appendix contains three maps. The maps were taken from the Interagency Scientific
Committee report "A Conservation Strategy for the Northern Spotted Owl." In that report,
the maps displayed land ownership patterns and the distribution of Spotted Owl Habitat
Conservation Areas. This information is retained here.
Two additional pieces of information have been added. The cross-hatching shows areas
in the three States that may be most vulnerable to social and economic effects resulting
1
from potential reductions in Federal timber supply. The red dots on the maps are those
communities where: (1) a large share of employment is in the timber industry, (2) the timber
industry is dependent on National Forest and Bureau of Land Management timber for a
large share of its log supplies, and (3) other sectors of the economy are not experiencing
healthy economic growth. The most vulnerable areas are rural and straddle the Coast and
Cascade ranges of Washington, Oregon, and California.
1
1
1
1
1
62
NORTHERN
Rg
SPOTTED OWL
Happy Comp
CONSERVATION PLAN
Yreka
State of California
e
Adin
No Pa
Bieber
Willow
Salyer
LEGEND
Eureka
Little Valle,
Ranch
eruille
Burney
Douglas City
Hartor
:
Buspapille
chaster
Greenville
Crescent mills
Quincy
:
8
Sleat
4.
AVE
Spotted Owl Habita
Conservation Area
Sattley
3
camptomville
e
Foresthill
e
8
D
-
e
Marten
Jackson
U.S
Sonora
San Francisco
NORTHERN
SPOTTED OWL
CONSERVATION PLAN
State of Oregon
Ri
-
Titlamoski
Portland
Forest Grove
=
.
.
Elivertion
Dear
Salem
Stayro
MILCH
Alban
can
evanon
will
=
Prineville
Springfield
Spotted Owl Habitat
Conservation Area
Gilchpist
Winchestes
:
CountryPos
Blamark
class
NORTHERN
SPOTTED OWL
Bellingh m
CONSERVATION PLAN
1
Sedire Weal
State of Washington
rin
Port Angeles
41
Branite
Fords
Falls
Exeratt
LEASED
Snohomis
uter
i)
4
Seattle
Entiat
,
Brogram
Pashasting
2
"
Cashmere
Quinoit
She Hon
Ronald
nequiam
Spanaway
,
Aberdeen
:
Spotted Owl Habitat
N
Nachos
Conservation Area
have
Packwood
R
White Swan
:
Longview
white
Vancouver
en
:
Home Valley
carson
Stevenson
Washington Post
May 12, 1990
Lujan: Endangered Species Act
Too Tough, Needs Changes
By John Lancaster
Washington Post Staff Writer
Interior Secretary Manuel Lujan
Jr. said in a newspaper interview
published yesterday that the na-
tion's primary law protecting en-
dangered animals and plants should
be weakened and questioned the
need to "save every subspecies."
In an interview in Colorado
Thursday with the Denver Post,
Lujan expressed concern that the
17-year-old Endangered Species
Act is threatening jobs and econom-
ic development. He cited the exam-
ple of a Colorado reservoir project
that threatens the endangered Col-
orado squawfish and suggested in
SECRETARY MANUEL LUJAN JR.
that case he might seek an exemp-
cites concerns with recent cases
tion to the law.
"It's just too tough an act, I
Mexico congressmen is insensitive
think," Lujan was quoted as saying.
to environmental concerns and out
"We've got to change it."
of step with President Bush's
The remarks by the nation's top
pledge to be "the environmental
conservation official found a sym-
president."
pathetic audience among some con-
"I think there would be very little
servative western lawmakers and
enthusiasm in the Congress" for
industry representatives, but they
Lujan's proposal, said Sen. John H.
touched off a furor among environ-
Chafee (R-R.I.), ranking minority
mentalists and their congressional
leader on the Senate Environment
allies at a time of growing concern
and Public Works Committee. "We
over the accelerating loss of species
have recognized, and we lecture
to human activities worldwide,
other nations on, the importance of
They also revived criticism,
preserving biological diversity. We
which Lujan's aides have worked
inherited this world and I don't
hard to dispel, that the former New
See LUJAN, A4, Col. 4
continued
Lujan Calls Endangered Species Act
Too Tough,' Citing Colorado Project
LUJAN, From A1
think we have the right to lay waste
to it before passing it on to our chil-
dren."
White House spokesman Stephen
Hart said Lujan was "representing
his personal opinion" and that the
administration is not considering a
proposal to amend the Endangered
Species Act when it is reconsidered
by Congress in 1993.
Interior's Fish and Wildlife Ser-
vice is responsible for enforcing the
Endangered Species Act, which
thus far has been applied to 1,073
plants, animals and fish, according
to a Fish and Wildlife spokesman.
The law requirés the agency to pro-
tect species listed as endangered
from any activity that would jeop-
ardize their existence.
Interior officials said Lujan's re-
marks arose out of frustration with
a series of recent cases involving
the law, including the planned An-
imas-La Plata water-storage com-
plex. in southwestern Colorado that
he announced earlier this week
would be delayed indefinitely due to
the presence of the squawfish, a
member of the minnow family now
on the endangered species list.
In the interview, Lujan noted that
squawfish exist elsewhere, and sug-
gested that he might consider seek-
ing an exemption to the act if alter-
natives cannot be found that will
allow the project to be built without
BY CRAIG HERNDON-THE WASHINGTON POST
jeopardizing the fish.
White House terms Interior Secretary Lujan's remarks his "personal opinion."
Lujan also expressed concern
that protection of the spotted owl in
the park and could not be reached
"Economics is a very legitimate and
the Pacific- Northwest could cost
for further comment. Goldstein said
important concern."
thousands of timber industry jobs,
Lujan does not want to weaken the
Mark Rey, executive director of
and he cited the case of the endan-
Endangered Species Act, but would
the American Forest Resource Al-
gered Mount Graham red squirrel,
like Congress to consider allowing
liance, a timber industry group, said
which is holding up a planned astro-
the department more flexibility un-
the controversy over the spotted
physical complex atop Mount Gra-
der a few special circumstances.
owl "is an example of the problems
ham, Arizona.
"There's a big difference be-
you create when you use an endan-
"The red squirrel is the best ex-
tween changing and weakening,"
gered species as a surrogate for a
ample," Lujan told the newspaper.
Goldstein said. "It amounts to a
broader objective, in this case pre-
"Nobody's told me the difference
clarification" of the law.
servation of forest land."
between a red squirrel, a black one
While Congress has yet to signal
Citing a Forest Service estimate
or a brown one."
any groundswell of support for
that 28,000 loggers will lose their
"Do we have to save every sub-
amending the Endangered Species
jobs if they are prohibited from cut-
species?" Lujan asked: "Do we have
Act, Lujan's remarks struck a sym-
ting "old-growth" forests in the Pa-
to save [an endangered species] in
pathetic chord among conservative
cific Northwest, Lujan told the Den-
every locality where it exists?"
western lawmakers who share his
ver paper, "We are caught between
Lujan made his comments in an
concern for local economies based
two things."
interview at Colorado's Mesa Verde
on natural resources such as tim-
Under the law, he said, "One may
National Park, where he is meeting
ber.
only consider biological facts, not
with the private National Park
"When you apply the Endangered
economic facts." And once a species
Foundation.
Species Act, everything else takes a
is listed, he told the paper, "I am
Lujan's spokesman, Steven Gold-
back seat," said a spokesman for
obliged to protect them wherever
stein, said Lujan was on a tour of
Sen. James A. McClure (R-Idaho).
they exist."
Misuse of Federal Act Cited
New York Times
May 12, 1990
There are people who make it their
life's work protecting endangered spe-
cies and their motives are laudable and
sincere," said Mr. Goldstein. "But
there are others who occasionally use
Interior Secretary Lujan
the Endangered Species Act to stop
economic progress or dévelopment be-
cause they oppose a particular project,
and that's what Mr. Lujan's upset
Questioning Species Act
about."
The spokesman said it would be inac-
curate to say that Mr. Lujan wants to
weaken the law, just because he wants
to make it more flexible. For example,
By WARREN E. LEARY
Mr. Goldstein said, if an endangered
Special to The New York Times
species exists in more than one region,
WASHINGTON, May 11 - Interior
do all habitats need equal protection?
Secretary Manuel Lujan Jr. says Con-
Or if there are numerous subspecies of
gress should consider modifying the
an endangered animal, does each need
Endangered Species Act so that protec-
to be preserved where it is found, or
tion of animals and plants is balanced
could some be moved?
against benefits to society from certain
In The Denver Post interview, Mr.
kinds of development.
Lujan cited the Mount Graham red
Mr. Lujan's spokesman, Steven
squirrel as an example of a subspecies
Goldstein, said the Secretary thinks
that was blocking construction of an as-
Congress should determine whether
tronomical observatory. He was
the law is being used for its intended
quoted as saying: "Do we have to save
purpose, protecting wildlife, or as a tool
every subspecies? The red squirrel is
against development. "It is the Secre-
the best example. Nobody's told me the
tary's opinion that the Endangered
difference between a red squirrel, a
Species Act should be used as a shield
black one or a brown one."
but not as a sword," Mr. Goldstein said.
The Secretary was quoted as saying
Mr. Lujan's assessment was origi-
that he was required to enforce the law
nally made in an interview on Thurs-
and would do so, but that the law was
day with The Denver Post. Mr. Lujan
"too tough" and should be changed.
was attending a conference today at
Mesa Verde National Park, near
Jay D. Hair, president of the National
Durango, Colo., and not available for
The New York Times
interviews to elaborate on his proposal,
Interior Secretary Manuel Lujan.
Mr. Goldstein said.
Environmentalists
immediately
criticized the remarks, saying that the
Secretary was supposed to be the pri-
The Endangered
Wildlife Federation, said: "We are in-
mary protector of wildlife.
Lack of Commitment Charged
Species Act: A
censed that the very Cabinet official
whose job it is to be the country's front-
"The Secretary of the Interior seems
shield or a sword?
line protector of endangered wildlife
to be equating the Environmental Spe-
would make such outrageous state-
cies Act, one of the most critical laws
ments:
on the books, with the law that says you
Mr. Hair said fewer than 100 of the
shouldn't remove the tags from your
Mount Graham red squirrels remain
mattress," said Peter Dykstra, a
today and Mr. Lujan's comments about
spokesman for Greenpeace. The fact
them were "insensitive at best.'
that the act is unambiguous is the very
reason for its success."
Faith Campbell, a senior scientist
The National Wildlife Federation and
with the Natural Resources Defense
others said Mr. Lujan's remarks
Council, said Mr. Lujan's suggestions
demonstrated that the Bush Adminis-
evoked those of former Interior Secre-
tration was not showing leadership on
tary James G. Watt.
the environment and lacked commit-
"Congress and the American public
ment to endangered wildlife.
rejected Mr. Watt's efforts to weaken
In the interview with The Denver
the Endangered Species Act and We ex-
Post, Mr. Lujan said he had been frus-
pect them to reject Secretary Lujan's
trated by the use of the law to stop
proposals as well," she said.
beneficial development projects.
Sydney J. Butler of the Wilderness
He was quoted as saying that a sub-
Society said: "Species and subspecies
species of red squirrel was holding up
are being eliminated at a faster rate
construction of a $200 million telescope
on Mount Graham in Arizona and that
now than at any time since the disap-
16 squawfish had stopped a needed
pearance of the dinosaurs. Mr. Lujan
has an immense responsibility to save
water project in the Southwest.
endangered wildlife, and he, more than
anyone, should understand the require-
ments of the law."
During Mr. Goldschmidt's time in of-
fice, Oregon has emerged from a long
recession associated with the timber
New York Times May 13, 1990
industry and has further developed
other segments of its economy through
international trade, tourism, agricul-
ture and hundreds of new businesses,
2 OREGONS COLLIDE
most of them high-tech. The state has
also become a haven for people who
have fled the urban woes of California
for citles in the Northwest.
IN GOVERNOR'S RACE
Significant Changes
Oregon, Washington and Idaho were
among the nation's top five states in
job growth over the last two years. As
Clash Between Environmental
the population has increased to slightly
less than 3 million from 2.6 million in
Interests and Old Timber
the past five years, the political
makeup has also changed.
Industry Fuels Contest
"Californians aren't moving here be-
cause they want to cut down trees,"
said Paddy McGuire, executive direc-
tor of the state's Democratic Party.
By TIMOTHY EGAN
"They're moving here because they
Special to The New York Times
want to live by them."
PORTLAND, Ore., May 10 - Ever
The 49-year-old Mr. Frohnmayer,
since Neil Goldschmidt, long consid-
whose brother John is chairman of the
ered one of the leading Democratic
National Endowment for the Arts, had
lights of the West, made his surprise
announced plans to run for governor
announcement that he would not seek a
before Mr. Goldschmidt bowed out.
second term as Governor of Oregon,
A Harvard graduate, Rhodes scholar
the list of candidates to succeed him
at Oxford and former law professor at
has been as varied as this state's sce-
the University of Oregon, Mr. Frohn-
nery.
mayer calls himself "a Republican
But the talk of the governor's race
moderate who defies ideological
has been about something that will not
labels." A father of five, born in Med-
appear on the primary ballot on Tues-
ford, he has attracted criticism from
day: the northern spotted owl, a small
the right wing of his party in Oregon by
nocturnal bird whose existence experts
supporting abortion rights.
say is threatened by logging, the state's
He says the spotted owl recommen-
leading industry.
dation, if carried out, would be "cata-
Last month, a panel of Federal scien-
strophic" for Oregon. When he pro-
tists recommended curtailing logging
posed further study of the issue, Ms.
on Federal lands by about 30 percent to
Roberts responded, "The patient is
protect the owl. The move could cripple
bleeding to death and Dave wants to
some of Oregon's struggling mill towns
get a second opinion."
and put thousands of loggers out of
'Restore One Oregon'
work.
Although one-sixth of Mr. Frohnmay-
But in an indication of just how much
er's recent campaign contributions
this growing state has changed in re-
came from the timber industry, he
cent years, the proposal to protect the
says he wants to be a bridge between
owl was hailed by the state's leading
environmentalists and loggers. In re-
newspapers and is supported by at
cent polls, he leads all other candidates
least half the people of Oregon, some
by gap of about 12 points.
polls show.
"I want to restore one Oregon," he
How to Reconcile Two Oregons
said.
Trying to reconcile the two Oregons
Ms. Roberts, who is 53, is a fourth-
- one dependent on the traditional in-
generation Oregonian, known as an
dustry of cutting old trees, the other in-
energetic and feisty campaigner. Mr.
volving an environmentally concerned,
Frohnmayer plans to spend about $3
mostly urban population - is the
million on the race and may have twice
toughest task facing the next governor.
as much money as Ms. Roberts, but she
The leading contenders are Barbara
says her energy will carry her to the
Roberts, a Democrat who is Secretary
Governor's mansion.
of State and who is running unopposed
She has accused Mr. Frohnmayer of
in the primary, and David Frohnmay-
pandering to fears about losing logging
er, the State Attorney General, who is
jobs. Referring to a recent loggers'
well ahead of six little-known rivals in
rally in Portland, where spotted owls
the Republican primary.
were hung in effigy and fights broke
The 49-year-old Mr. Goldschmidt has
out between timber workers and envi-
been a dominant force in Oregon poli-
ronmentalists, Ms. Roberts said: "How
tics for 20 years; he was Mayor of
is Dave Frohnmayer supposed to be a
Portland at the age of 33 and Secretary
bridge when he took part in the biggest
of Transportation under President
environmental-bashing rally I've seen
Jimmy Carter at 39. Even his closest
in years? They worked those poor tim-
advisers had expected him to seek re-
ber workers into a froth."
election, and the state was shocked
She said the solution to the timber
when he announced in February that
crunch was to get the mill towns to do
he would not seek a second term, ex-
more, like making furniture and fin-
plaining that his marriage was break-
ished wood products with the state's
ing up and that he wanted to devote
timber.
time to his personal life.
"I'm not talking about putting tim-
ber workers on welfare, but we have to
face reality," she said. "This is the
fastest growing region in the country
There will be good, family-wage jobs
from construction, building sewers and
other things if we diversify."