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Originally Processed With FOIA(s): FOIA Number: 1998-0004-F[1] S FOIA MARKER This is not a textual record. This is used as an administrative marker by the George Bush Presidential Library Staff. Record Group/Collection: George H.W. Bush Presidential Records Collection/Office of Origin: Chief of Staff, White House Office of Series: Sununu, John, Files Subseries: Cabinet Agencies Files OA/ID Number: 29186 Folder ID Number: 29186-006 Folder Title: Boskin (CEA - 1989) Stack: Row: Section: Shelf: Position: G 15 25 6 3 j THE CHAIRMAN OF THE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS WASHINGTON of October 18, 1989 MEMORANDUM FOR GOV. JOHN H. SUNUNU FROM: MICHAEL J. BOSKIN mgs RE: Income Distribution and Economic Growth One of the themes in the 1988 election was "the rich are getting richer, the poor are getting poorer." I made some calculations then which helped demonstrate the inaccuracy of these changes. The family income data released with the poverty data today can be used to analyze the change in the average income of families in each of 5 income quintiles. The income of each group grew at roughly twice the rate of inflation. The percentage changes in the average (after inflation) income for each group were remarkably similar and none varied much from the economy's overall real growth rate of 4 percent. Comparison of the income distribution numbers from this morning's release of 1988 income statistics with the 1987 income distribution numbers: FAMILY INCOME DISTRIBUTION % Change Real Average Income Bottom Quintile +4.3% 2nd Quintile +3.4% 3rd Quintile +3.1% 4th Quintile +4.3% Top Quintile +5.0% Withdrawal/Redaction Sheet (George Bush Library) Document No. Subject/Title of Document Date Restriction Class. and Type 01. Memo From Michael Boskin to John Sununu 11/24/89 Re: Veto Recommendation (1 pp.) Collection: Record Group: Bush Presidential Records Office: Chief of Staff, White House Office of Series: Sununu, John, Files Open on Expiration of PRA Subseries: Cabinet Agencies Files (Document Follows) WHORM Cat.: By If (NLGB) on 5/12/05 File Location: Boskin (CEA - 1989) Date Closed: 12/1/2004 OA/ID Number: 29186-006 FOIA/SYS Case #: 1998-0004-F[1] Appeal Case #: Re-review Case #: 2005-0426-S Appeal Disposition: P-2/P-5 Review Case #: Disposition Date: AR Case #: MR Case #: AR Disposition: MR Disposition: AR Disposition Date: MR Disposition Date: RESTRICTION CODES Presidential Records Act - [44 U.S.C. 2204(a)] Freedom of Information Act - [5 U.S.C. 552(b)] P-1 National Security Classified Information [(a)(1) of the PRA] (b)(1) National security classified information [(b)(1) of the FOIA] P-2 Relating to the appointment to Federal office [(a)(2) of the PRA] (b)(2) Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of an P-3 Release would violate a Federal statute [(a)(3) of the PRA] agency [(b)(2) of the FOIA] P-4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or (b)(3) Release would violate a Federal statute [(b)(3) of the FOIA] financial information [(a)(4) of the PRA] (b)(4) Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial P-5 Release would disclose confidential advice between the President information [(b)(4) of the FOIA] and his advisors, or between such advisors [a)(5) of the PRA] (b)(6) Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of P-6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of personal privacy [(b)(6) of the FOIA] personal privacy [(a)(6) of the PRA] (b)(7) Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement purposes [(b)(7) of the FOIA] C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed of (b)(8) Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of gift. financial institutions [(b)(8) of the FOIA] (b)(9) Release would disclose geological or geophysical information PRM. Removed as a personal record misfile. THE CHAIRMAN OF THE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS WASHINGTON November 24, 1989 MEMORANDUM FOR GOVERNOR SUNUNU FROM: MICHAEL J. BOSKIN mms RE: VETO RECOMMENDATION Protectionist Measure Violating U.S./Canada Free Trade Agreement Snuck onto NOAA Authorization Bill Bill Frenzel and several others alerted me that they have just found out that Senator Mitchell has snuck a "lobster size limit" onto the NOAA authorization bill which would effectively prohibit importation of Canadian lobster. NOAA's appropriation has passed, and this seems a perfect veto candidate for all the following reasons: (1) It is blatantly protectionist. (2) It impairs our ability to implement the U.S./Canada Free Trade Agreement. (3) It is precisely the type of last-minute junk we are trying to prevent being added to legislation addressing other matters. CC: Ambassador Carla Hills Director Richard Darman Secretary Nicholas Brady Secretary James A. Baker, III Withdrawal/Redaction Sheet (George Bush Library) Document No. Subject/Title of Document Date Restriction Class. and Type 02. Memo From Michael Boskin to John Sununu 7/7/89 P/S Re: Meeting w/Chairman John Dingell (1 pp.) Collection: Record Group: Bush Presidential Records Office: Chief of Staff, White House Office of Open on Expiration of PRA Series: Sununu, John, Files (Document Follows) Subseries: Cabinet Agencies Files WHORM Cat.: By gp (NLGB) on 5/12/05 File Location: Boskin (CEA - 1989) Date Closed: 12/1/2004 OA/ID Number: 29186-006 FOIA/SYS Case #: 1998-0004-F[1] Appeal Case #: Re-review Case #: 2005-0426-S Appeal Disposition: P-2/P-5 Review Case #: Disposition Date: AR Case #: MR Case #: AR Disposition: MR Disposition: AR Disposition Date: MR Disposition Date: RESTRICTION CODES Presidential Records Act - [44 U.S.C. 2204(a)] Freedom of Information Act - [5 U.S.C. 552(b)] P-1 National Security Classified Information [(a)(1) of the PRA] (b)(1) National security classified information [(b)(1) of the FOIA] P-2 Relating to the appointment to Federal office [(a)(2) of the PRA] (b)(2) Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of an P-3 Release would violate a Federal statute [(a)(3) of the PRA] agency [(b)(2) of the FOIA] P-4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or (b)(3) Release would violate a Federal statute [(b)(3) of the FOIA] financial information [(a)(4) of the PRA] (b)(4) Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial P-5 Release would disclose confidential advice between the President information [(b)(4) of the FOIA] and his advisors, or between such advisors [a)(5) of the PRA] (b)(6) Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of P-6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of personal privacy [(b)(6) of the FOIA] personal privacy [(a)(6) of the PRA] (b)(7) Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement purposes [(b)(7) of the FOIA] C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed of (b)(8) Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of gift. financial institutions [(b)(8) of the FOIA] (b)(9) Release would disclose geological or geophysical information PRM. Removed as a personal record misfile. THE CHAIRMAN OF THE file COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS WASHINGTON July 7, 1989 MEMORANDUM FOR GOVERNOR SUNUNU CHIEF OF STAFF FROM: MICHAEL BOSKIN mgs SUBJECT: Meeting with Chairman John Dingell Last Saturday night, Bob Mosbacher and I, and our wives, went out to dinner with John and Debbie Dingell and some others. At dinner Chairman Dingell expressed privately to me (Bob is recused on the subject) his extreme concern about the upcoming clean air legislation. He believes it will be the toughest job he has handled in his time on Capitol Hill. He is deeply troubled by what he said was a proclivity of EPA to talk to, or "negotiate with," Henry Waxman and others, as if they are not part of the Administration, and circumventing Chairman Dingell. He anticipates much difficulty holding his Committee together, and actively wishes to work with the White House. He is extremely pleased with the flexibility/trading market incentives/making it easier for business to comply components of our legislation, although he foresees some technical difficulties therewith (such as getting the alternative fuels produced in time and in conjunction with the auto companies producing the cars for the right fuels). He indicated his concern was so great that he expected that in Conference Committee he would want a high ranking Administration official to be present to assist in the debate and discussion and drafting; he wanted it to be someone authoritative and important, but not from EPA. He wanted someone from an agency inside the White House or the Executive Office of the President. I told him I would pass this along to you at the relevant time, and I assured him the Administration was desirous of working with Congress to produce a bill which incorporated our principles and was as close as possible to what we had proposed. THE CHAIRMAN OF THE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS WASHINGTON August 17, 1989 has THE CHIEF of STAFF MEMORANDUM FOR GOVERNOR JOHN H. SUNUNU seen FROM: MICHAEL J. BOSKIN mB RE: Release Dates for Economic Statistics 8/17 - 9/5 A list of the dates of releases of government and important private economic statistics is attached. The most important are the following: Consumer price index - Aug 18 generally expected to be up a modest 0.2 or 0.3 percent. GNP 2nd quarter revision- - Aug 29 I expect considerable upward revision from the 1.7% previously reported. Employment and Unemployment - Sept 1 First important data for August. Job growth has been slowing. Very slow growth of employment (say below 125,000 jobs) would revive recession talk and Also: concerns. FOMC meeting - Aug 22 The FED's FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee)- the policymaking arm of the FED composed of the 7 governors (currently 6 with the Heller vacancy) and 5 of the 12 district bank presidents--will be deciding whether to ease further--perhaps targetting a FED funds rate 1/4% below the current 9% target--and whether to give any discretionary authority to Chairman Greenspan. At the last meeting they voted to ease 1/4% from 9-1/2 to 9-1/4 and gave him authority to ease another 1/4% if he thought the data warranted so doing; he used up that authority. August 16, 1989 SCHEDULED RELEASE DATES FOR ECONOMIC STATISTICS August 17 - September 5, 1989 Released to the Public Merchandise Trade August 17, 1989 Consumer price index August 18, 1989 Advance durable shipments and orders for July August 22, 1989 Yields on FHA mtg. for August 1 August 22, 1989 State per capita personal income for 1988 (revised) August 23, 1989 Auto sales for most recent 10 day period August 23, 1989 GNP for the second quarter (rev) August 29, 1989 Personal income for July August 30, 1989 Employment situation for August September 1, 1989 Leading indicators for July September 1, 1989 Consumer surveys for August:* U. Michigan (tentative) Conference Board (tentative) September 1, 1989 Purchasing Managers Report* September 5, 1989 for August *Private data released to CEA Chairman Boskin by special arrangement. THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON February 7, 1989 TO THE CHIEF OF STAFF: E For your information. sun James W. Cicconi Withdrawal/Redaction Sheet (George Bush Library) Document No. Subject/Title of Document Date Restriction Class. and Type 03. Memo From Michael Boskin to POTUS 2/6/89 P/S Re: Comments of Key Business Leaders at Your Business Luncheon, Friday, February 4 (1 pp.) Collection: Record Group: Bush Presidential Records Office: Chief of Staff, White House Office of Series: Sununu, John, Files Open on Expiration of PRA Subseries: Cabinet Agencies Files (Document Follows) WHORM Cat.: By IP (NLGB) on 12/12/07 File Location: Boskin (CEA - 1989) Date Closed: 12/1/2004 OA/ID Number: 29186-006 FOIA/SYS Case #: 1998-0004-F[1] Appeal Case #: Re-review Case #: 2005-0426-S Appeal Disposition: P-2/P-5 Review Case #: Disposition Date: AR Case #: MR Case #: AR Disposition: MR Disposition: AR Disposition Date: MR Disposition Date: RESTRICTION CODES Presidential Records Act [44 U.S.C. 2204(a)] Freedom of Information Act - [5 U.S.C. 552(b)] P-1 National Security Classified Information [(a)(1) of the PRA] (b)(1) National security classified information [(b)(1) of the FOIA] P-2 Relating to the appointment to Federal office [(a)(2) of the PRA] (b)(2) Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of an P-3 Release would violate a Federal statute [(a)(3) of the PRA] agency [(b)(2) of the FOIA] P-4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or (b)(3) Release would violate a Federal statute [(b)(3) of the FOIA] financial information [(a)(4) of the PRA] (b)(4) Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial P-5 Release would disclose confidential advice between the President information [(b)(4) of the FOIA] and his advisors, or between such advisors [a)(5) of the PRA] (b)(6) Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of P-6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of personal privacy [(b)(6) of the FOIA] personal privacy [(a)(6) of the PRA] (b)(7) Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement purposes [(b)(7) of the FOIA] C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed of (b)(8) Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of gift. financial institutions [(b)(8) of the FOIA] (b)(9) Release would disclose geological or geophysical information PRM. Removed as a personal record misfile. THE CHAIRMAN OF THE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS WASHINGTON 1909 FEB *6 Fil 2: 50 February 6, 1989 MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT FROM: MICHAEL J. BOSKIN M/D SUBJECT: Comments of Key Business Leaders at Your Business Luncheon, Friday, February 4 At the luncheon Friday, I was cornered by several prominent business leaders who were concerned that the FED would "kill off the recovery." This was mentioned to me by Ed Brennan, Chairman of Sears Roebuck & Company; Wilson Taylor, Chairman, CIGNA Insurance; and even Bill Butcher, Chairman, Chase Manhattan Bank, who sits on an advisory committee to the FED which, to quote Bill, "the FED listens to, but ignores." Without indicating any position on the issue, I did probe for information concerning supply shortages, wage pressures, price increase plans, sales outlooks, etc. The Sears response was fairly typical: some wage pressure in the northeast region, as the supply of people looking for part-time jobs in retail has declined substantially, but otherwise no indication of major cost increases, supply shortages, or impending price increases. Several of the CEO's indicated they hoped they would have some ability to register their information and concerns with the Administration. I made no commitments or offers, other than that they should feel free to call me anytime they thought it was important. Withdrawal/Redaction Sheet (George Bush Library) Document No. Subject/Title of Document Date Restriction Class. and Type 04a. Note From Michael Boskin to John Sununu 5/4/89 Re: Summary of Camp David Meeting (1 pp.) Collection: Record Group: Bush Presidential Records Office: Chief of Staff, White House Office of Series: Sununu, John, Files Open on Expiration of PRA Subseries: Cabinet Agencies Files (Document Follows) WHORM Cat.: By & (NLGB) on 5/12/05 File Location: Boskin (CEA - 1989) Date Closed: 12/1/2004 OA/ID Number: 29186-006 FOIA/SYS Case #: 1998-0004-F[1] Appeal Case #: Re-review Case #: 2005-0426-S Appeal Disposition: P-2/P-5 Review Case #: Disposition Date: AR Case #: MR Case #: AR Disposition: MR Disposition: AR Disposition Date: MR Disposition Date: RESTRICTION CODES Presidential Records Act - [44 U.S.C. 2204(a)] Freedom of Information Act - [5 U.S.C. 552(b)] P-1 National Security Classified Information [(a)(1) of the PRA] (b)(1) National security classified information [(b)(1) of the FOIA] P-2 Relating to the appointment to Federal office [(a)(2) of the PRA] (b)(2) Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of an P-3 Release would violate a Federal statute [(a)(3) of the PRA] agency [(b)(2) of the FOIA] P-4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or (b)(3) Release would violate a Federal statute [(b)(3) of the FOIA] financial information [(a)(4) of the PRA] (b)(4) Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial P-5 Release would disclose confidential advice between the President information [(b)(4) of the FOIA] and his advisors, or between such advisors [a)(5) of the PRA] (b)(6) Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of P-6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of personal privacy [(b)(6) of the FOIA] personal privacy [(a)(6) of the PRA] (b)(7) Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement purposes [(b)(7) of the FOIA] C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed of (b)(8) Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of gift. financial institutions [(b)(8) of the FOIA] (b)(9) Release would disclose geological or geophysical information PRM. Removed as a personal record misfile. THE CHIEF of STAFF THE CHAIRMAN OF THE has seen COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS WASHINGTON May 4, 1989 Determined to be marking Administrative Rec'd COS PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL MAY - 5 1989 TO : GOVERNOR JOHN H. SUNUNU FROM: MICHAEL J. BOSKIN mrs RE : Summary of Camp David Meeting Attached are a brief overview and narrative summary of the discussion with the outside economists and businessmen at Camp David. Recall the group agreed not to discuss with outsiders the views or statements of any of the other participants. As near as I can tell, all but Wanniski have complied. Please do not circulate this to anyone else. If there are any questions, I would be happy to try to clarify things. Governor, tile FYI, Boskin sent a copy of this to The President as well. Cicconi has forwarded it. Withdrawal/Redaction Sheet (George Bush Library) Document No. Subject/Title of Document Date Restriction Class. and Type 04b. Report From Michael Boskin to John Sununu 5/4/89 P/S Re: Brief Overview of Camp David Meeting w/Outside Economists (14 pp.) Collection: Record Group: Bush Presidential Records Office: Chief of Staff, White House Office of Open on Expiration of PRA Series: Sununu, John, Files (Document Follows) Subseries: Cabinet Agencies Files WHORM Cat.: By If (NLGB) on 5/12/05 File Location: Boskin (CEA - 1989) Date Closed: 12/1/2004 OA/ID Number: 29186-006 FOIA/SYS Case #: 1998-0004-F[1] Appeal Case #: Re-review Case #: 2005-0426-S Appeal Disposition: P-2/P-5 Review Case #: Disposition Date: AR Case #: MR Case #: AR Disposition: MR Disposition: AR Disposition Date: MR Disposition Date: RESTRICTION CODES Presidential Records Act [44 U.S.C. 2204(a)] Freedom of Information Act - [5 U.S.C. 552(b)] P-1 National Security Classified Information [(a)(1) of the PRA] (b)(1) National security classified information [(b)(1) of the FOIA] P-2 Relating to the appointment to Federal office [(a)(2) of the PRA] (b)(2) Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of an P-3 Release would violate a Federal statute [(a)(3) of the PRA] agency [(b)(2) of the FOIA] P-4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or (b)(3) Release would violate a Federal statute [(b)(3) of the FOIA] financial information [(a)(4) of the PRA] (b)(4) Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial P-5 Release would disclose confidential advice between the President information [(b)(4) of the FOIA] and his advisors, or between such advisors [a)(5) of the PRA] (b)(6) Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of P-6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of personal privacy [(b)(6) of the FOIA] personal privacy [(a)(6) of the PRA] (b)(7) Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement purposes [(b)(7) of the FOIA] C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed of (b)(8) Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of gift. financial institutions [(b)(8) of the FOIA] (b)(9) Release would disclose geological or geophysical information PRM. Removed as a personal record misfile. Brief Overview of Camp David Meeting with Outside Economists The agenda for the meeting focused on four general areas: 1. Inflation and Unemployment 2. The Outlook for the U.S. Economy 3. Economic Growth and Productivity 4. Budget Policy During the meeting several of the outside participants raised issues which fall into two other broad areas: 5. International Trade and the Trade Deficit 6. Savings and Investment (1) Inflation and Unemployment There was general agreement that demographic changes have reduced the level of unemployment that we can achieve without causing an increase in inflation. The aging of the baby-boom generation has increased the proportion of "prime-age" workers with lower unemployment rates. Moreover, the unemployment rate for younger workers and women is now lower compared with "prime-age" male workers. These changes could have lowered the unemployment rate where inflationary pressures begin to the range of 4.5 to 5.5 percent. Moderate wage increases are further evidence that labor market pressures are not yet severe despite the low unemployment. However, some of the economists warned that there was some evidence of an increase in wage inflation (as measured by the employment cost index) and advised a very cautious assessment of the low unemployment rates. Further, as emphasized by Paul Volcker and Herb Stein, the inflation rate is still well above zero and needs to be gradually reduced to that level. (2) The Outlook for the U.S. Economy There were a variety of views about the short-run strength of the economy, but no one saw significant signs of a recession. Monthly statistical releases indicate some slowdown in February and March, but the businessmen saw no sign of reduced orders or inventory buildup in their industries. The importance of viewing the U.S. economic outlook jointly with the outlook for other industrialized economies was emphasized by Paul O'Neill. Most agreed that the most significant risk to the economy was a rise in inflation like we experienced in the late 1970s. However, thus far there is no evidence of such strong inflation and all agreed that it would be unwise for the Fed to tighten in response to a temporary uptick in inflation due to oil price increases. -2- (3) Economic Growth and Productivity The discussion about what to do to increase U.S. productivity repeatedly turned to education. The U.S. is behind Japan and other countries in providing education at the elementary and secondary level. A large fraction of the workforce is functionally illiterate. The President should use the "bully pulpit" and call a conference of governors to highlight the problems. Education is mainly funded at the state and local level, and it was felt that more Federal tax dollars are not needed beyond the amount in the President's educational initiative. (4) Budget Policy The outside economists were evenly split on whether a tax increase would be a good idea. The greatest concern about a tax increase is that it would simply raise spending with no effect on the deficit. But other economists--most vocally Herb Stein--disputed this effect of taxes on spending. There was general agreement that a three-part package consisting of (1) a cut in the capital gains tax, (2) increased Presidential authority in the budget process, and (3) an increase in some other tax (e.g. gasoline) would be worth serious consideration. (5) International Trade and the Trade Deficit There was unanimous support -- both from the businessmen and the economists -- that the Administration maintain a strong commitment to open markets and reduced trade barriers. The businessmen both praised the Japanese for efficient and high-quality production and wanted the Japan bashing to stop. If bashing must be done, then bash U.S. industrial leaders. Most of the economists saw no harm from the U.S. trade deficit per se. Some said it simply represented the demand for U.S. dollars and assets. Others said the trade deficit was a symptom of another problem: the low U.S. saving rate compared to Japan and other industrialized countries. (6) Savings and Investment There was fairly wide agreement that the U.S. saving rate is too low. Cutting the budget deficit would increase the savings rate, but additional tax incentives are necessary to increase private saving. Those opposing this view--Art Laffer, Jude Wanniski--felt that the savings rate was the result of decisions made by individuals; government intervention was not appropriate. Narrative Summary of Camp David Meeting with Outside Economists Saturday, April 22, 1989 Outside Participants: Paul O'Neill, Alcoa John Akers, IBM Paul Volcker, James D. Wolfensohn Martin Feldstein, Harvard University Richard Rahn, U.S. Chamber of Commerce Kathryn Eickhoff, Eickhoff Economics Herbert Stein, American Enterprise Institute Jude Wanniski, Polyconomics Art Laffer, A.B. Laffer Associates Beryl W. Sprinkel, Consultant Administration Participants John H. Sununu, Chief of Staff Nicholas F. Brady, Secretary of the Treasury Richard G. Darman, OMB Director Michael J. Boskin, CEA Chairman Roger Porter, Assistant to the President for Domestic and Economic Policy John B. Taylor, CEA Member-Designate After Michael Boskin's introduction, John Taylor presented the Council's preliminary anaylsis that the measure of unemployment associated with inflationary pressures is now lower than it was in the highly inflationary period of the late 1970s. The group then began a discussion of the inflation and unemployment issues facing the U.S. economy. Inflation and Unemployment Paul O'Neil felt that Taylor's characterization of the labor market in the U.S. economy at this time was about right. He added that profit sharing plans, which are more important now and which have recently been added to his own company's compensation schemes, should make the labor market more flexible in adjusting to economic shocks in the future. -2- Herb Stein emphasized that we have too much inflation right now and must get it down to close to zero. Martin Feldstein basically agreed with Taylor's analysis of the demographic aspects of unemployment, but he also emphasized the total compensation figures for wage inflation are rising and are very important to monitor. Beryl Sprinkel thought that one must go beyond these measures of inflation and unemployment and look at the general monetary policy thrust over the last few years. He felt that we have had much restraint in monetary policy in the last year and that this has a negative short-run effect on the outlook. Paul Volcker agreed with Stein that inflation is still too high. The short-run effects of oil are probably temporary, but the threat of higher inflation is most crucial for the short-run outlook. He was very worried about inflation rising in the near future. Richard Rahn felt that the inflation blip is almost over. We've already had a tight policy and the big threat of a downturn is already in place. He felt that the Fed was too tight and should get on with easing up at this time. Kathryn Eickhoff felt that the recent upsurge in inflation was due to oil and that this will turn around. She also felt that the current low level of unemployment will be a squeeze on monetary policy with the Fed not having as much room to maneuver as in the past. -3- Art Laffer indicated that the weak dollar has had a significant upward effect on inflation. He was also concerned that the monetary base has been growing much too rapidly in the last few years. Jude Wanniski emphasized that inflation is a monetary phenomenon, but he was more sanguine about the inflation issue because of the relative price of gold and oil at this time, which seemed roughly to be in equilibrium. Short-Run Outlook The discussion here began with Martin Feldstein stating that the flattening of the yield curve was a signal of a slowdown. He also said that the adjustable rate mortgages have been exerting a negative influence on spending, and that the trade balance is actually moving in the direction of greater deficit and this is slowing down the economy. Paul O'Neill said he saw no big change in order rates, no inventory accumulation, no price pressures, and therefore, no slowing down of the economy. He also mentioned that many of the models at the macro level are not good at this point because they don't focus on the international aspects of the economy. Kathryn Eickhoff felt that we don't have many signs of a slowdown now, but we are likely to be getting one later. Trade and the Trade Deficit John Akers warned that expectations had been raised that the recent changes in trade laws would result in an improvement -4- of the trade deficit. He was concerned that these changes in the law would escalate trade tensions between the U.S. and other countries. There was general agreement on these points. Rahn worried about the discussion of "managed trade" that he has heard from certain members of the Administration, and felt that the Administration needs to establish a clear priority of a move toward free trade. Volcker indicated that the trade deficit will not improve unless the savings investment balance improves. He stated that the bilateral trade deficit of the United States vis-a-vis Japan reflected Japanese savings being substantially greater than U.S. savings. The low U.S. savings rate is the problem in his view. Laffer emphasized that a trade deficit can go on for a long time and the trade deficit is not the problem. Stein said if it can't go on forever it will stop and agreed that the trade deficit is not a problem per se. O'Neill then went on to describe how the Japanese are actually better at producing many goods than we are. In his experience, his Japanese competitors do a better job at producing some items than Alcoa. John Akers agreed. "The Japanese are better at it than we are." Then Rahn indicated that the trade deficit of the United States indicates a demand for U.S. dollars. Japan doesn't have a big trade surplus with the USSR because it doesn't want rubles. -5- Laffer worried that the dollar would fall if the trade deficit got worse and that this would have a negative effect on inflation, raising the prices of imported goods. Sprinkel also said that the trade deficit was not a problem per se. "So what if there's a trade deficit," he said. "Most of the remedies for the trade deficit have costs which are significantly greater than benefits." He emphasized that investment to GNP ratios in the United States were doing quite well, at which point there was a discussion between Sprinkel and Volcker about whether real investment, or nominal investment, or gross investment, or net investment was strong. Feldstein said that if one looks at the trade deficit from the middle of 1988, that it seems to be getting worse rather than better. At this point Sununu asked O'Neill why the Japanese were better at producing certain goods than Americans. O'Neill went on to a long discussion of this subject indicating bad leadership, poor organization, poor treatment of hourly people, and a large bureaucracy which needs to be trimmed down in many U.S. companies. He felt that the problem was with U.S. business firms and argued that the main goal for government policy is to provide stability and sound tax policies and let the business sector keep going. Means to Strengthen Productivity Growth Most of the discussion in this area focused on education. O'Neill used his experience with Alcoa to emphasize the -6- importance of educational problems in the United States. He estimated that 20 percent of the workforce in some areas is functionally illiterate. He described remedial programs which had been tried out experimentally in certain plants to educate the workforce. He said that productivity has been stimulated very much by this. Sununu said he thought the problem was more at the very top. People are not getting Ph. Ds any more. There was some discussion about whether it was more a problem of elementary and secondary education as distinct from advanced degrees. O'Neill again emphasized that this was not a job of the Federal Government. "Don't tax us to provide what we should be providing ourselves" he said. "This is a problem for the private sector to handle." Discussion with the President At this point the President joined the meeting and Michael Boskin spent a few minutes summarizing the discussion that had gone on thus far. John Taylor summarized the discussion of the inflation and unemployment situation in the economy today. Martin Feldstein presented a brief overview of the savings problems facing the U.S. economy. He indicated that getting the savings rate up was a key issue, and in particular, the private savings rate. There was some dispute of the need to raise savings by Wanniski and Laffer, but basically the President was interested in what could be done to raise the saving rate. -7- Herb Stein suggested raising taxes, cutting social security, but not cutting defense. The President asked "Wouldn't raising taxes tend to reduce growth?" Stein answered that interest rates would fall if there were a tax increase. There was then some discussion about monetary policy. Volcker indicated that it would probably be unwise to expect the Fed to state formally that it would lower interest rates if taxes were increased, but this would occur through the policymaking process. Continuing the discussion of tax changes, Richard Rahn indicated that any increase in taxes was most likely to lead to a dollar for dollar increase in government spending. He also indicated that there was a very weak empirical relationship between budget deficits and interest rates; bringing the budget deficit down would be unlikely to lower interest rates. O'Neill indicated that he was nervous about the budget deficit and indicated a $50 billion tax increase on gasoline would be great for the economy. Akers also emphasized the problem with the budget deficit. The President said he agreed that an increase in taxes would likely lead to an increase in government spending. Laffer said that he thought this would be the case too. Herb Stein said that there was no empirical evidence that higher taxes would lead to higher government spending. -8- There was some discussion about whether a tax increase would actually increase saving. Martin Feldstein said that his figures showed that national savings would clearly go up with a tax increase. The discussion then turned to the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings legislation and its effectiveness. Kathryn Eickhoff was concerned about the loophole in Gramm-Rudman which allowed the deficit to increase after the Gramm-Rudman targets were hit. Richard Darman indicated that some fix-up in Gramm-Rudman would be useful, but he emphasized the advantages of the recent budget agreements. He said that sequester was still a possibility. Nick Brady indicated that, despite these loopholes, Gramm-Rudman is very useful. In his words, "It's the only element of sanity in the budget process." The discussion then turned back to trade issues again with John Akers leading off the discussion, telling about his experience with Japan. IBM has been doing business in Japan for a long time. He has a lot of experience. He said the Japanese are the best competitors in the industry. The Japanese PC clone is of higher quality than American PCs. They're successful because they do a good job. We can't get workers to work as well as Japanese workers in his view. Paul O'Neill agreed with this and went on to indicate that we need to do major changes with respect to education and leadership in the organization of business. He felt that it was time not to bash the Japanese but to bash American -9- industry. American industry should be committed to getting better every day and to get remedial training to the workforce where necessary. He again reiterated that this was not the business of the government, but of the private sector. The President indicated that he wanted to do more for education and there are ways to help. John Akers suggested that the "bully pulpit" be used and also suggested a group be assigned to assess progress in education. Later on he also suggested some kind of commission or conference of education leaders and mayors and governors to discuss the subject. Richard Darman indicated that the overall thrust of economic policy should go beyond opening markets. It should also focus on developing human capital. Efforts to restore the importance of the family and address various cultural problems could alleviate many of the educational problems the country faces. Finally, there was a discussion of the cost of capital in the United States being much higher than in Japan. This leads to less investment as well as investment in shorter lived assets. Paul Volcker stated that the source of this difference in the rate of return is the higher savings in Japan compared that in to the United States. At this time the meeting was adjourned. The discussion was to be continued over lunch. -10- Additional Issues Raised at Lunch 1. Taxes The outside economists and business people were fairly evenly split on whether a tax increase would be a good idea. Those in favor of a tax increase included O'Neill, Akers, Volcker, Feldstein, and Stein. Those against a tax increase included Rahn, Eickhoff, Wanniski, Sprinkel, and Laffer. O'Neill again suggested a gasoline tax stating that it would send the stock market soaring. He stated that he is in favor of such a tax even though it would be bad for Alcoa. Akers also favored a gasoline tax. Volcker, Feldstein, and Stein were in favor of a tax increase in general and did not focus on gasoline. In answer to the President's question about tax increases leading to more wasteful government expenditures, Stein admitted that a tax increase would lead to expansion of government programs he didn't like, but it would also permit programs that he did like. In fact, much of the opposition to the tax increase focused on whether it would lead to a dollar-for-dollar increase in government expenditure and thereby little effect on the deficit. Sprinkel, Rahn, and Eickhoff emphasized this but Wanniski and Laffer were against the tax increase for the additional reason that it would be bad for the economy. They mentioned adverse supply-side effects. Laffer argued that taxes and borrowing are equivalent and therefore a tax increase wasn't worth the risk of more government spending. -11- Sununu asked whether the difference in views might be explained by disagreement over whether government spending would rise by 100 percent of a tax increase, or whether it would rise by 0 percent. Clearly the truth is somewhere in between. Herb Stein advised the President to have his economic advisers conduct an econometric study of the effect of tax increases on government spending. Boskin tried to pull the group together by asking whether institutional changes (such as a modification of Gramm-Rudman or giving the President greater budget authority which might reduce the threat of an increase in government spending following a tax increase) would reduce the opposition to a tax increase. Sprinkel said such changes would reduce his opposition, but added that the changes were unlikely. There was also some discussion of bundling the capital gains tax cut with a gasoline tax increase. The President stated that vetoing the minimum wage bill coming from Capitol Hill would be part of his effort to establish credibility about resisting spending increases. 2. Short-Run Outlook At lunch there seemed to be less of a consensus on the economic outlook than in the morning meeting. Eickhoff indicated that even though she didn't see a marked slowdown yet, she felt that the Fed would (and should) try to get real GNP growth down below 3 percent and would keep raising interest rates until a slowdown occurred. Feldstein indicated that the inflation rise went beyond oil and that the Fed should try to -12- get inflation down below 5 percent anyway. He suggested under 4 percent by 1991 as one example target. Sprinkel repeated that there was already monetary restraint in the system. Laffer felt the opposite. 3. Saving-Investment Incentives There was considerable debate about the effectiveness of tax incentives to increase private savings such as Individual Retirement Accounts (IRA). Feldstein felt that his numbers on low financial savings in certain income groups suggested such incentives would have a big effect. Rahn agreed with Feldstein but Volcker strongly disagreed. January 17, 1989 MEMORANDUM FOR WHITE HOUSE SENIOR STAFF-DESIGNATES FROM: MICHAEL J. BOSKIN CHAIRMAN-DESIGNATE, CEA mgs SUBJECT: Remaining Statistical Release Schedule for January 1989 Release Time and Date of Release Agency Merchandise Trade (Nov.) 8:30 a.m. Wednesday, Jan. 18 Census/Commerce Industrial Production (Dec.) 9:15 a.m. Wednesday, Jan. 18 Federal Reserve Housing Starts (Dec.) 8:30 a.m. Thursday, Jan. 19 Census/Commerce Consumer Price Index (Dec.) 8:30 a.m. Thursday, Jan. 19 BLS / Labor Capacity Utilization (Dec.) 9:15 a.m. Thursday, Jan. 19 Federal Reserve* Advance Durable Goods (Dec.) 8:30 a.m. Thursday, Jan. 26 Census/Commerce GNP '88: IV 8:30 a.m. Friday, Jan. 27 BEA/Commerce Personal Income (Dec.) 10:00 a.m. Monday, Jan. 30 BEA/Commerce * CEA does not currently prepare briefing materials for capacity utilization. Attachments THE CHAIRMAN OF THE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS WASHINGTON December 14, 1988 MEMORANDUM FOR WHITE HOUSE SENIOR STAFF FROM: BERYL W. SPRINKEL BerylW. Sprudke SUBJECT: Exports and Imports in October This morning at 8:30 a.m. the Commerce Department will release the advance report on U.S. merchandise trade in October. The seasonally adjusted October trade deficit on a customs value (c.v.) basis was $8.9 billion, down $0.3 billion from the revised September deficit of $9.2 billion. (On the traditionally reported cost, insurance, freight (c.i.f.) basis, the seasonally adjusted October deficit was $10.3 billion, down $0.3 billion from the revised September deficit of $10.7 billion.) October exports fell $0.3 billion from September, but were $2.1 billion or 7.6 percent higher than the previous 12-month average. Exports in the principal end-use categories of foods, feeds and beverages, industrial supplies, and consumer goods fell. Exports of capital goods (except automotive) and other merchandise rose. On a C.V. basis, October imports fell $0.6 billion from September. Most principal end-use imports fell, with the largest declines in capital goods (except automotive) and consumer goods. Imports of foods, feeds and beverages, and industrial supplies and materials rose. The average trade deficit for the three months ending in October is 28.7 percent lower than in the same three-month period a year earlier. Exports have increased 28.3 percent while imports increased 6.5 percent for the same periods. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS (Monthly - October 1987 to October 1988) 40 imports 35 30 Exports 25 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 20 15 Trade Deficit 10 5 o OCT 87 DEC 87 FEB as APR as JUNE se AUG ⑉ OCTSB UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE BUREAU OF THE NEWS CENSUS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION 8:30 A.M. EST CB-88-195 Wednesday December 14, 1988 FT900 (88-10) Gerald F. Kotwas (301) 763-5333 PRESS COPY Minnie M. Davis (301) 763-7754 U.S. MERCHANDISE TRADE: OCTOBER 1988 (See PAGE 2 for a SPECIAL NOTICE and the SCHEDULE OF RELEASE DATES FOR JANUARY 1989 TO DECEMBER 1989 PRESS RELEASES) SEASONALLY ADJUSTED IMPORTS AND EXPORTS IMPORTS (C.I.F.), EXPORTS (F.A.S.) AND TRADE BALANCE October imports of $38.0 billion and exports of $27.7 billion resulted in a merchandise trade deficit of $10.3 billion, $0.4 billion less than the September deficit of $10.7 billion. October imports were $0.7 billion less than September imports of $38.7 billion. October exports were $0.3 billion less than September exports of $28.0 billion. The September to October change in imports reflected the net effect of decreases in capital goods ($0.6 billion), consumer goods $0.4 billion), automotive vehicles, parts and engines ($0.1 billion), and increases in industrial supplies and materials ($0.4 billion), and foods, feeds and beverages ($Q.1 billion) while other merchandise remained virtually unchanged from September. The September to October change in exports reflected the net effect of decreases in industrial supplies and materials ($0.8 billion), foods, feeds and beverages ($0.3 billion), and consumer goods ($0.2 billion) and an increase in other merchandise ($0.9 billion) while automotive vehicles, parts and engines and capital goods remained virtually unchanged from September. IMPORTS (CUSTOMS), EXPORTS (F.A.S.) AND TRADE BALANCE October imports of $36.6 billion and exports of $27.7 billion resulted in a merchandise trade deficit of $8.9 billion, $0.3 billion less than the September deficit of $9.2 billion. October imports were $0.6 billion less than September imports of $37.2 billion. The September to October change in imports reflected the net effect of decreases in capital goods ($0.6 billion), consumer goods ($0.4 billion) automotive vehicles, parts and engines ($0.2 billion), and increases in industrial supplies and materials ($0.4 billion), foods, feeds and beverages ($0.1 billion) while other merchandise remained virtually unchanged from September. SELECTED COMMODITY AND COUNTRY DETAIL IMPORTS, C.I.F., EXPORTS, F.A.S. (Not Seasonally Adjusted) Imports of manufactured goods at $32.3 billion were $2.2 billion more than the $30.1 billion of September and $2.8 billion more than the $29.5 billion January to September average. Manufactured goods reflected the net effect of increases in new passenger cars, telecommunications equipment and parts, electrical machinery, organic/inorganic chemicals, gem diamonds, trucks, motor vehicle and tractor parts, copper and general industrial machinery and decreases in airplanes, clothing and footwear, and aluminum. Petroleum products at $3.1 billion (233 million barrels) were $0.2 billion less than the $3.3 billion of September and $0.5 billion less than the $3.6 billion January to September average. The October average price per barrel ($13.46) was $1.14 less than the $14.60 September average price and $2.40 less than the $15.86 January to September average price. Exports of manufactured goods at $18.7 billion were the same as in September and $1.1 billion more than the $17.6 billion January to September average. Manufactured goods reflected the net effect of increases in airplanes, power generating machinery, electrical machinery, telecommunications equipment and parts, and airplane parts and decreases in organic/inorganic chemicals, new passenger cars, copper, and general industrial machinery. The October trade figures reflected deficits with Japan $5.5 billion ($4.1 billion), Taiwan $1.4 billion ($1.4 billion), Western Europe $1.1 billion ($0.9 billion), Canada $1.0 billion ($0.9 billion), Republic of Korea $0.8 billion ($1.0 billion), OPEC $0.8 billion ($0.7 billion), Hong Kong $0.5 billion ($0.5 billion), and Brazil $0.5 billion ($0.6 billion). The September deficits are shown in parentheses. Carry-over in October was $0.7 billion (1.7 percent) for C.I.F. imports and $0.4 billion (1.4 percent) for exports. Carry-over in the revised September data was $0.4 billion (1.1 percent) for C.I.F. imports and $0.4 billion (1.5 percent) for exports. 2 SPECIAL NOTICE (Repeated from July Issue) The "Omnibus Trade and Competitiveness Act of 1988" contains a number of provisions affecting the presentation of the merchandise trade statistics: (1) it rescinds earlier legislation requiring that data on imports, valued on a C.I.F. basis (price paid for merchandise plus insurance and freight charges incurred in delivering merchandise to U. S. ports), be released at least 48 hours prior to release of the same data on a Customs value basis (price of merchandise only); (2) it authorizes adoption of the International Harmonized System (HS) as the U. S. standard for reporting product information for tariff and statistical purposes, effective January 1989; and (3) it requires that trade data be reported in terms of constant dollars as well as current dollars. Beginning with the September 1988 press release (July 1988 data) and continuing through the February 1989 release (December 1988 data), the Census Bureau will provide a single monthly merchandise trade press release containing import data on both a C.I.F. and Customs value basis. The release will provide both sets of data seasonally adjusted for end-use categories and unadjusted for selected commodities and geographic areas. The change to a Customs value basis for import data in March 1989 (January 1989 data) will provide a more accurate picture of merchandise trade which will be consistent with the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) balance of payments data. The release schedule for the balance of 1988 will remain the same as previously published for the FT900 Advance report. In the March 1989 release (January 1989 data), import and export data will reflect the adoption of the Harmonized System (HS) as the standard for U. S. trade statistics. The HS based export classification schedule contains about 8,000 commodity codes compared to 5,000 in the current schedule; the import classification schedule has about 14,000 commodity codes compared to the current 15,000. For the first time, U. S. import and export classifications will be comparable with each other and comparability of import, export, and production data will be greatly enhanced. In addition, U. S. trade data will be comparable to that of our major trading partners. Pending the result of research now in progress, the Census Bureau is planning to release in 1989 monthly import and export data in constant dollars as well as in current dollars. Constant dollar data will provide a more accurate measure of change in the volume of trade and its effects on real economic activity. SCHEDULE OF RELEASE DATES FOR U. S. MERCHANDISE TRADE REPORT FT900: JANUARY 1989 TO DECEMBER 1989 STATISTICAL PERIOD FT900 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COVERED NEWS ROOM-8:30 A. M. Date Day JANUARY 3-15-89 Wednesday FEBRUARY 4-14-89 Friday MARCH 5-17-89 Wednesday APRIL 6-15-89 Thursday MAY 7-18-89 Tuesday JUNE 8-17-89 Thursday JULY 9-15-89 Friday AUGUST 10-17-89 Tuesday SEPTEMBER 11-16-89 Thursday OCTOBER 12-15-89 Friday NOVEMBER 1-17-90 Wednesday DECEMBER 2-16-90 Friday Inquiries concerning these dates should be addressed to Foreign Trade Division, Bureau of the Census, Washington, D. C. 20233 Telephone: 301-763-7754 or 301-763-5140. 3 CONTENTS Text 1 A Special Notice and the Schedule of Release Dates for January 1989 to December 1989 2 Contents 3 Information 4 Exhibit 1. Exports (F.a.s. value), General Imports (C.1.f. value), and Merchandise Trade Balance, Seasonally Adjusted and Not Seasonally Adjusted: January 1986 to October 1988 5 Exhibit 2. Exports (F.a.s. value). General Imports (Customs value), and Merchandise Trade Balance, Seasonally Adjusted and Not Seasonally Adjusted: January 1986 to October 1988 6 Exhibit 3. Exports (F.a.s. value). General Imports (C.1.f. value). and Merchandise Trade Balance, Seasonally Adjusted and Not Seasonally Adjusted: November 1986 to October 1988 7 Exhibit 4. Exports (F.a.s. value). General Imports (Customs value). and Merchandise Trade Balance, Seasonally Adjusted and Not Seasonally Adjusted: November 1986 to October 1988 8 Exhibit 5. Exports (F.a.s. value) by Principal End-Use Commodity Category, Seasonally Adjusted and Not Seasonally Adjusted: January 1987 to October 1988 9 Exhibit 6. General Imports (C.1.f. value) by Principal End-Use Category, Seasonally Adjusted and Not Seasonally Adjusted: January 1987 to October 1988 10 Exhibit 7. General Imports (Customs value) by Principal End-Use Category, Seasonally Adjusted and Not Seasonally Adjusted: January 1987 to October 1988 11 Exhibit 8-1. Summary of Changes in Exports (F.a.s. value). General Imports (C.1.f. value) and Merchandise Trade Balance by Commodity Grouping. Country, Economic and Geographic Area, Not Seasonally Adjusted: September to October 1988 12 Exhibit 8-2. Summary of Changes in Exports (F.a.s. value), General Imports (Customs value) and Merchandise Trade Balance by Commodity Grouping, Country, Economic and Geographic Area, Not Seasonally Adjusted: September to October 1988 12 Exhibit 9. Exports (F.a.s value). and General Imports (C.i.f. value) by Principal Commodity Groupings, Not Seasonally Adjusted: 1988 and 1987 13 Exhibit 10. Exports (F.a.s value) and General Imports (Customs value) by Principal Commodity Groupings, Not Seasonally Adjusted: 1988 and 1987 15 Exhibit 11-1. Exports (F.a.s. value) and General Imports (C.i.f. value) by SITC Sections, Not Seasonally Adjusted: 1988 and 1987 17 Exhibit 11-2. Exports (F.a.s. value) and General Imports (Customs value) by SITC Sections, Not Seasonally Adjusted: 1988 and 1987 17 Exhibit 12. General Imports (C.1.f. value) of Petroleum, Not Seasonally Adjusted: 1988 and 1987 18 Exhibit 13. General Imports (Customs value) of Petroleum, Not Seasonally Adjusted: 1988 and 1987 19 Exhibit 14. Exports (F.a.s. value), General Imports (C.1.f. value) and Merchandise Trade Balance-- Countries, Economic and Geographic Areas, Not Seasonally Adjusted: 1988 and 1987 20 Exhibit 15. Exports (F.a.s. value). General Imports (Customs value) and Merchandise Trade Balance-- Countries. Economic and Geographic Areas, Not Seasonally Adjusted: 1988 and 1987 21 Exhibit 16. Exports (F.a.s. value), General Imports (C.1.f and Customs Values). and Merchandise Trade Balance, Seasonally Adjusted Three Month-Moving Averages: January 1986 to October 1988 22 4 INFORMATION COVERAGE COMMODITY INFORMATION The U. S. foreign trade statistics Variations Adjusted for Seasonal and Working-Day A. include government and non-government shipments of merchandise, Commodities exported and imported through U. S. trade channels are initially classified B. reflect the movement of goods into and under Schedule 8 and Tariff Schedules of the out of (1) the 50 states, the District of United States Annotated (TSUSA) commodity Columbia, Puerto Rico, the U. S. Virgin classification systems. Both classification Islands and (2) U.S. Foreign Trade Zones, systems provide for describing and measuring the characteristics of commodities traded. C. exclude (1) shipments between U. S., Combining trade data into broad "end-use" Puerto Rico, and U. S. possessions, categories makes it possible to examine (2) shipments to U. S. Armed Forces and diplomatic missions abroad for their own commodities according to their principal uses. "End-use" categories are: (1) Foods, feeds use, (3) U.S. goods returned to the U. S. and beverages; (2) Industrial supplies and by its Armed Forces and (4) in-transit materials; (3) Capital goods except automo- shipments. tive: (4) Automotive vehicles, parts and engines: (5) Consumer goods (nonfood) except automotive; and (6) Other merchandise, such as military goods, estimates of low-valued MONTHLY RELEASE SCHEDULE shipments. etc. These "end-use" categories were used as the basis for computing the sea- sonal and/or working-day adjusted export and ISSUE DATE DAY import data presented in Exhibits 1 through 7 and 16 of this report. Overall seasonally January 3-17-88 Thursday adjusted export and import totals are derived February 4-14-88 Thursday by adding the six "end-use" categories. Not March 5-17-88 Tuesday seasonally adjusted "end-use" categories are April 6-14-88 Tuesday shown for comparison in Exhibits 5, 6, and 7. May 7-15-88 Friday June 8-16-88 Tuesday The seasonally adjusted three-month moving averages for imports, exports and trade July 9-14-88 Wednesday balances (Exhibit 16) are computed by summing August 10-13-88 Thursday the subject month, the two prior months, September 11-16-88 Wednesday dividing by 3, and plotting at the subject October 12-14-88 Wednesday month. These averages are made available as *November 1-18-89 Wednesday an analytical tool to aid in trend analyses December 2-17-89 Friday and should be used as such. The selection of a three-month time frame to compute the moving averages is arbitrary: any combination of months can be used. MONTHLY "CARRY-OVER" AND REVISION POLICY Not Adjusted for Seasonal and Working-Day "Carry-over" is portion of the month- Variations ly statistics recei. :00 late for inclusion in the transaction month. Therefore, monthly Commodity data appearing in Exhibits 8-1 data include the actual month's transactions to 10 are classified in terms of Schedule E and a small "carry-over" for previous months. (exports) and Schedule A (imports). both of which are based on the Standard International In April 1988, the Census Bureau began Trade Classification (SITC) Revision 2 and revising the aggregate seasonally adjusted arranged by principal commodity groupings and unadjusted export, import and trade (e.g., agricultural commodities: manufactured balance figures as well as the "end-use" goods) to facilitate analysis. Export and totals for the prior month. SITC and country import SITC section totals are presented in detail data are not revised. Exhibits 11-1 and 11-2. Agricultural commodities consist of non- The timing adjustments shown in Exhibits marine food products and other products of 8-1 through 11-2, 14 and 15 refer to the agriculture which have not passed through difference between carry-over as originally complex processes of manufacture. such as reported and as recompiled. raw hides and skins, fats and oils, and wine. Manufactured goods conform to the SITC, VALUATION Revision 2 Classification sections that include chemicals and related products, Import data are (1) Customs import and N. S.P.F.; manufactured goods classified (2) C.I.F. import value. Export data are chiefly by material; machinery and transport f.a.s. value. All are explained below. equipment; and miscellaneous manufactured articles. N. S.P.F. 1. Customs Import Value -is the U.S. Cus- toms Service appraised value of merchandise: Reexports are foreign merchandise generally, the price paid for merchandise for entering the country as imports and which at export to the U. S. Import duties, freight, the time of exportation are in substantially insurance, and other charges incurred in the same condition as when imported. Re- bringing merchandise to the United States exports. included in overall export totals, are excluded. appear as separate line items in Exhibits 8-1 through 11-2. 2. C.1.f. Import Value - is Customs value (defined above) plus freight, insurance, and ADDITIONAL INFORMATON SOURCES other charges (excluding U. S. import duties) incurred in bringing merchandise from the Additional data and information regarding exporting country to the first port of coverage, valuation, estimating procedures, arrival in the United States. and qualifications are obtainable from the following: 1. Report FT990, Highlights of U.S. Export 3. F.a.s. Export Value - is f.a.s. (free and Import Merchandise Trade: alongside ship) value of merchandise at the 2. The Guide to Foreign Trade Statistics. U. S. port of export, based on transaction 3. Foreign Trade Division, Bureau of the price including inland freight, Insurance, Census, Washington, D. C. 20233. and other charges incurred in placing the merchandise alongside the carrier at the U.S. An electronic version of FT900 is port of exportation. available through CENDATA, the Census Bureau's on-line information facility. Contact Cus- tomer Services, DUSD, Bureau of Census, Washington, D. C. 20233 or call 301-763-4100. Change. Previously announced as 1-13-89. 5 EXHIBIT 1. EXPORTS (F.A.S. VALUE), GENERAL IMPORTS (C.I.F. VALUE), AND-MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: JANUARY 1986 TO OCTOBER 1988 In millions of dollars. Details may not add to totals due to rounding and other statistical procedures. (R) Revised. TRADE BALANCE EXPORTS. F.A.S. VALUE GENERAL IMPORTS, C.I.F. VALUE PERIOD SEASONALLY NOT SEASONALLY SEASONALLY NOT SEASONALLY SEASONALLY NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ADJUSTED ADJUSTED ADJUSTED ADJUSTED ADJUSTED 1986 JANUARY-DECEMBER -155,136.9 -155,136.9 227,158.5 227,158.5 382,295.4 382,295.4 JANUARY-OCTOBER -127,736.5 -128,528.0 188,608.7 188,386.4 316,345.2 316,914.4 JANUARY -13,397.9 -13,520.1 18,557.1 17,605.3 31,955.0 31,125.4 FEBRUARY -11,269.6 -10,240.1 18,520.1 18,052.8 29,789.7 28,292.9 MARCH -12,711.0 -11,294.8 17,998.8 19,426.6 30,709.8 30,721.4 APRIL -13,112.6 -13,000.7 18,761.6 19,038.7 31,874.2 32,039.4 MAY -11,994.6 -12,070.7 19,022.9 19,471.2 31,017.5 31,541.9 JUNE -11,526.3 -11,602.5 20,037.7 20,496.7 31,564.0 32,099.2 JULY -12,808.3 -14,606.2 19,730.8 18,829.4 32,539.1 33,435.6 AUGUST -13,557.4 -13,602.5 17,969.8 17,323.2 31,527.2 30,925.7 SEPTEMBER -14,650.4 -14,613.0 18,281.8 17,785.3 32,932.2 32,398.3 OCTOBER -12,708.4 -13,977.4 19,728.1 20,357.2 32,436.5 34,334.6 NOVEMBER -14,656.2 -14,583.8 19,294.9 19,354.7 33,951.0 33,938.5 DECEMBER -12,744.4 -12,025.1 19,254.8 19,417.4 31,999.2 31,442.5 1987 JANUARY-DECEMBER -170,320.2 -170,320.2 254,121.9 254,121.9 424,442.1 424,442.1 JANUARY-OCTOBER -142,900.5 -143,834.3 206,874.6 206,528.8 349,775.1 350,363.1 JANUARY -14,733.0 -14,821.1 18,400.4 17,345.9 33,133.4 32,167.0 FEBRUARY -13,526.5 -12,270.3 19,328.0 18,853.9 32,854.5 31,124.2 MARCH -13,824.3 -12.091.1 20,172.0 21,835.5 33,996.3 33,926.6 APRIL -13,236.8 -13,100.2 20,402.3 20,677.7 33,639.1 33,777.9 MAY -14,074.4 -13,912.8 20,262.3 20,759.5 34,336.7 34,672.3 JUNE -15,058.1 -15,290.8 21,107.5 21,636.7 36,165.6 36,927.5 JULY -13,878.2 -16,076.1 22,432.9 21,379.0 36,311.1 37,455.1 AUGUST -15,078.1 -15,309.8 20,884.1 20,079.1 35,962.2 35,388.9 SEPTEMBER -13,935.0 -13,975.4 21,810.3 21,183.7 35,745.3 35,159.1 OCTOBER -15,556.1 -16,986.7 22,074.8 22,777.8 37,630.9 39,764.5 NOVEMBER -13,622.4 -13,460.0 23,094.9 23,278.7 36,717.3 36,738.7 DECEMBER -13,797.2 -13,025.9 24,152.5 24,314.4 37,949.7 37,340.3 1988 JANUARY-OCTOBER -113,432.3 -114,348.5 265,342.6 264,900.4 378,774.9 379,248.9 34,522.7 JANUARY -11,271.2 -11,532.6 24,488.2 22,990.1 35,759.4 FEBRUARY -14,414.6 -12,994.3 24,518.3 24,138.6 38,932.9 37,132.9 MARCH -11,703.0 -9,527.6 26,877.0 29,105.7 38,580.0 38,633.3 APRIL -10,304.2 -10,192.8 26,028.6 26,334.9 36,332.8 36,527.7 MAY -9,761.6 -9,514.2 27,478.4 28,142.6 37,240.0 37,656.8 JUNE -13,215.5 -13,319.2 26,283.2 26,838.8 39,498.7 40,158.0 JULY -9,472.9 -11,985.5 26,515.6 25,098.2 35,988.5 37.083.7 AUGUST -12,269.6 -12,831.8 27,493.0 26,538.1 39,762.6 39,369.9 SEPTEMBER(R) -10,672.8 -10,698.1 27,988.8 27,236.6 38,661.6 37,934.7 OCTOBER -10,346.9 -11,752.4 27,671.5 28,476.8 38,018.4 40,229.2 6 EXHIBIT 2. EXPORTS (F.A.S. VALUE). GENERAL IMPORTS (CUSTOMS VALUES). AND MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: JANUARY 1986 TO OCTOBER 1988 In millions of dollars. Details may not add to totals due to rounding and other statistical procedures. (R) Revised. TRADE BALANCE EXPORTS, F.A.S. VALUE GENERAL IMPORTS, CUSTOMS VALUE PERIOD NOT NOT NOT SEASONALLY SEASONALLY SEASONALLY SEASONALLY SEASONALLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ADJUSTED ADJUSTED ADJUSTED ADJUSTED ADJUSTED 1986 JANUARY-DECEMBER -138,279.2 -138,279.2 227,158.5 227,158.5 365,437.7 365,437.7 JANUARY-OCTOBER -113,400.9 -114,516.2 188,608.7 188,386.4 302,009.6 302,902.6 JANUARY -12,042.9 -12,165.8 18,557.1 17,605.3 30,600.0 29,771.1 FEBRUARY -10,346.4 -9,027.6 18,520.1 18,052.8 28,866.5 27,080.4 MARCH -11,125.3 -9,960.9 17,998.8 19,426.6 29,124.1 29,387.5 APRIL -11,525.2 -11,618.0 18,761.6 19,038.7 30,286.8 30,656.7 MAY -10,367.2 -10,705.9 19,022.9 19,471.2 29,390.1 30,177.1 JUNE -9,922.5 -10,212.7 20,037.7 20,496.7 29,960.2 30,709.4 JULY -11,238.4 -13,055.9 19,730.8 18,829.4 30,969.2 31,885.3 AUGUST -12,152.6 -12,156.4 17,969.8 17,323.2 30,122.4 29,479.6 SEPTEMBER -13,455.7 -13,143.5 18,281.8 17,785.3 31,737.5 30,928.8 OCTOBER -11,224.7 -12,469.5 19,728.1 20,357.2 30,952.8 32,826.7 NOVEMBER -13,370.7 -13,140.5 19,294.9 19,354.7 32,665.6 32,495.2 DECEMBER -11,507.6 -10,622.5 19,254.8 19,417.4 30,762.4 30,039.9 1987 JANUARY-DECEMBER -152,119.0 -152,119.0 254,121.9 254,121.9 406,241.0 406,241.0 JANUARY-OCTOBER -127,463.9 -128,742.6 206,874.6 206,528.8 334,338.5 335,271.4 JANUARY -13,265.2 -13,452.6 18,400.4 17,345.9 31,665.6 30,798.5 FEBRUARY -12,497.1 -10,956.4 19,328.0 18,853.9 31,825.1 29,810.3 MARCH -12,099.3 -10,628.8 20,172.0 21,835.5 32,271.3 32,464.3 APRIL -11,575.9 -11,613.4 20,402.3 20,677.7 31,978.2 32,291.1 MAY -12,251.3 -12,410.5 20,262.3 20,759.5 32,513.6 33,170.0 JUNE -13,310.6 -13,721.3 21,107.5 21.636.7 34,418.1 35,358.0 JULY -12,192.5 -14,430.9 22,432.9 21,379.0 34,625.4 35,809.9 AUGUST -13,608.2 -13,747.1 20,884.1 20,079.1 34,492.3 33,826.2 SEPTEMBER -12,772.1 -12,483.8 21,810.3 21,183.7 34,582.4 33,667.5 OCTOBER -13,891.7 -15,297.8 22,074.8 22,777.8 35,966.5 38,075.6 NOVEMBER -12,221.2 -11,932.2 23,094.9 23,278.7 35,316.1 35,210.9 DECEMBER -12,433.9 -11,444.3 24,152.5 24,314.4 36,586.4 35,758.7 1988 JANUARY-OCTOBER -98,194.4 -98,925.0 265,342.6 264,900.4 363,537.0 363,825.4 JANUARY -9,769.4 -10,005.0 24,488.2 22,990.1 34,257.6 32,995.1 FEBRUARY -13,210.7 -11,430.4 24,518.3 24,138.6 37,729.0 35,569.0 MARCH -9,766.7 -7,924.3 26,877.0 29,105.7 36,643.7 37,030.0 APRIL -8,796.4 -8,692.0 26,028.6 26,334.9 34,825.0 35,026.9 MAY -8,253.3 -8,004.3 27,478.4 28,142.6 35,731.7 36,146.9 JUNE -11,665.2 -11,750.7 26,283.2 26,838.8 37,948.4 38,589.5 JULY -8,017.3 -10,484.7 26,515.6 25,098.2 34,532.9 35,582.9 AUGUST -10,646.7 -11,203.0 27,493.0 26,538.1 38,139.7 37,741.1 SEPTEMBER(R) -9,189.3 -9,222.5 27,988.8 27,236.6 37,178.1 36,459.1 OCTOBER -8,879.4 -10,208.1 27,671.5 28,476.8 36,550.9 38,684.9 7 EXHIBIT 3. EXPORTS (F.A.S. VALUE), GENERAL IMPORTS (C.I.F. VALUE), AND MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: NOV. 1986 TO OCT. 1988 (Merchandise trade balance is shown as a deficit) Merchandise Trade Balance Seasonally Adjusted and Not Seasonally Adjusted 15 15 blilons - 12 Secondary - leasonally Not securety adjusted educated moving educated over age - - - 9 N D J F M A M , J A $ o N D J F M A M J , A $ o 1986 1987 1988 Exports (F.A.S. Value) Seasonally Adjusted and Not Seasonally Adjusted 30- 25 ballons - 20 Security 1-manth - Not associally adjusts adjusted mores edjusted over age - - - 15 N D , F M A M J , A $ o N D J F M A M J , A S O 1986 1987 use Imports (C.I.F. Value) Seasonally Adjusted and Not Seasonally Adjusted 40 35 $ o billions 30 lemenally I-manth security Not adjusted adjust .. moving adjusted everage - - - 25 N D , F M A M , J A $ o N D J F M A M , J A S o 1988 1986 1987 8 EXHIBIT 4. EXPORTS (F.A.S. VALUE), GENERAL IMPORTS (CUSTOMS VALUE). AND MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: NOV. 1986 TO OCT. 1988 (Merchandise trade balance is shown as a deficit) Merchandise Trade Balance Seasonally Adjusted and Not Seasonally Adjusted 16. 13 blllows - 10 I 1 Secrenally departed moving Not securely edjusted everage expensed I - - - 7 N D , F M A M , J A $ o N D , F M A M J J A $ o 1987 1988 1986 Exports (F.A.S. Value) Seasonally Adjusted and Not Seasonally Adjusted 30 25 blillons - 20 I - - Not seasonally adjusted edjusted - adjusted everage use - - 15 N D , F M A M J J A $ o N D , F M A M , , A S o 1986 1987 YESS Imports (Customs Value) Seasonally Adjusted and Not Seasonally Adjusted 40 35 bllows - 30 becometh )-month reasonally Net adjusted adjusted moving adjusted everage 25 N D , F M A M , J A $ o N D J F M A M , J A $ O 1986 1987 mes , 9 EXHIBIT 5. EXPORTS (F.A.S. VALUE) BY PRINCIPAL END-USE COMMODITY CATEGORY, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: JANUARY 1987 TO OCTOBER 1988 In millions of dollars. Details may not add to totals due to rounding and other statistical procedures. (R) Revised. PRINCIPAL END-USE COMMODITY CATEGORY FOODS, INDUSTRIAL CAPITAL AUTOMOTIVE CONSUMER GOODS OTHER PERIOD TOTAL FEEDS SUPPLIES GOODS, VEHICLES, (NONFOOD), MERCHAN- AND AND EXCEPT PARTS EXCEPT DISE (1) BEVERAGES MATERIALS AUTOMOTIVE AND ENGINES AUTOMOTIVE Seasonally adjusted 1987 JAN.-DEC 254,121.9 24,254.7 66,720.1 86,227.7 24,632.1 17,677.6 34,609.7 JAN.-OCT 206,874.6 20,367.3 54,065.6 69,963.5 19,794.0 14,509.3 28,174.9 JANUARY 18,400.4 1,689.0 5,088.0 6,186.0 1,855.9 1,298.3 2,283.2 FEBRUARY 19,328.0 1,730.3 4,939.9 6,573.1 1,943.0 1,316.9 2,824.8 MARCH 20,172.0 1,846.0 5,313.3 6,768.9 1,917.5 1,389.2 2,937.1 APRIL 20,402.3 1,853.1 5,499.7 6,861.6 1,878.9 1,399.2 2,909.8 MAY 20,262.3 2,011.4 5,433.1 6,836.6 1,915.6 1,469.2 2,596.4 JUNE 21,107.5 2,101.2 5,535.2 6,536.4 2,155.2 1,478.9 3,300.6 JULY 22,432.9 2,384.8 5,592.1 7,643.0 1,868.1 1,552.9 3,392.0 AUGUST 20,884.1 2,201.0 5,571.0 7,047.3 2,024.3 1,467.6 2,572.9 SEPTEMBER 21,810.3 2,247.9 5,606.2 8,041.0 2,115.8 1,616.2 2,183.2 OCTOBER 22,074.8 2,302.6 5,487.1 7,469.6 2,119.7 1,520.9 3,174.9 NOVEMBER 23,094.9 1,845.3 6,146.6 8,084.9 2,496.2 1,559.5 2,962.4 DECEMBER 24,152.5 2,041.9 6,507.9 8,179.6 2,341.9 1,608.8 3,472.4 1988 JAN.-OCT 265,342.6 27,199.8 70,386.7 89,825.2 24,051.0 18,871.3 35,008.1 JANUARY 24,488.2 2,216.9 6,647.7 8,738.6 2,141.5 1,611.6 3,131.9 FEBRUARY 24,518.3 2,525.8 6,637.2 8,573.3 2,392.4 1,779.6 2,610.0 MARCH 26,877.0 2,576.7 7,688.3 8,719.0 2,690.6 1,797.8 3,404.5 APRIL 26,028.6 2,557.9 7,312.4 8,796.4 2,349.1 1,772.5 3,240.4 MAY 27,478.4 2,927.3 7,144.1 9,251.3 2,424.3 1,923.9 3,807.4 JUNE 26,283.2 2,665.8 7,019.5 8,464.8 2,212.2 1,928.8 3,992.2 JULY 26,515.6 2,871.0 7,126.9 9,101.0 2,015.4 1,959.7 3,441.6 AUGUST 27,493.0 3,059.1 6,896.2 9,379.8 2,776.5 2,030.0 3,351.2 SEPTEMBER(R) 27,988.8 3,026.7 7,333.3 9,394.9 2,551.3 2,125.9 3,556.6 OCTOBER 27,671.5 2,772.6 6,581.1 9,406.1 2,497.7 1,941.5 4,472.3 Not seasonally adjusted 1987 JAN.-DEC 254,121.9 24,254.7 66,720.1 86,227.7 24,632.1 17,677.6 34,609.7 JAN.-OCT 206,528.8 19,833.0 54,007.0 69,878.3 20,058.1 14,577.4 28,174.9 JANUARY 17,345.9 1,734.9 4,769.4 5,543.3 1,802.6 1,212.5 2,283.2 FEBRUARY 18,853.9 1,801.2 4,706.6 6,267.1 1,999.5 1,254.8 2,824.8 MARCH 21,835.5 1,975.0 5,633.6 7,645.9 2,114.2 1,529.7 2,937.1 APRIL 20,677.7 1,839.1 5,472.4 7,004.6 2,047.7 1,404.1 2,909.8 MAY 20,759.5 1,820.2 5,626.1 6,986.7 2,186.5 1,543.6 2,596.4 JUNE 21,636.7 1,832.4 5,655.8 6,936.3 2,375.6 1,536.0 3,300.6 JULY 21,379.0 2,239.1 5,364.7 7,353.7 1,562.4 1,467.1 3,392.0 AUGUST 20,079.1 1,996.9 5,639.2 6,783.5 1,623.2 1,463.4 2,572.9 SEPTEMBER 21,183.7 2,101.1 5,549.9 7,621.2 2,172.9 1,555.4 2,183.2 OCTOBER 22,777.8 2,493.1 5,589.3 7,736.0 2,173.5 1,610.8 3,174.9 NOVEMBER 23,278.7 2,178.7 6,073.1 7,931.4 2,564.8 1,568.3 2,962.4 DECEMBER 24,314.4 2,243.0 6,640.0 8,418.0 2,009.2 1,531.9 3,472.4 1988 JAN.-OCT 264,900.4 26,369.5 70,550.1 89,673.5 24,342.1 18,957.3 35,008.1 JANUARY 22,990.1 2,270.1 6,179.6 7,817.5 2,088.6 1,502.4 3,131.9 FEBRUARY 24,138.6 2,620.2 6,572.6 8,174.7 2,466.1 1,695.1 2,610.0 MARCH 29,105.7 2,741.9 8,181.2 9,847.2 2,951.0 1,979.9 3,404.5 APRIL 26,334.9 2,529.0 7,244.5 8,989.0 2,556.0 1,776.0 3,240.4 MAY 28,142.6 2,630.8 7,471.1 9,451.1 2,757.9 2,024.4 3,807.4 JUNE 26,838.8 2,309.6 7,122.1 8,968.4 2,443.9 2,002.7 3,992.2 JULY 25,098.2 2,694.7 6,699.0 8,736.0 1,678.2 1,848.6 3,441.6 AUGUST 26,538.1 2,767.3 7,135.7 9,039.4 2,217.4 2,027.2 3,351.2 SEPTEMBER(R) 27,236.6 2,811.8 7,305.2 8,896.0 2,624.3 2,042.6 3,556.6 OCTOBER 28,476.8 2,994.1 6,639.1 9,754.2 2,558.7 2,058.4 4,472.3 (1) Includes military type goods, estimates of low-valued shipments, adjustment for undocumented exports to Canada and reexports. 10 EXHIBIT 6. GENERAL IMPORTS (C.I.F. VALUE) BY PRINCIPAL END-USE COMMODITY CATEGORY, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: JANUARY 1987 TO OCTOBER 1988 In millions of dollars. Details may not add to totals due to rounding and other statistical procedures. (R) Revised. PRINCIPAL END-USE COMMODITY CATEGORY PERIOD TOTAL FOODS, INDUSTRIAL CAPITAL AUTOMOTIVE CONSUMER GOODS OTHER FEEDS SUPPLIES GOODS VEHICLES, (NONFOOD), MERCHAN- AND AND EXCEPT PARTS EXCEPT DISE (1) BEVERAGES MATERIALS AUTOMOTIVE AND ENGINES AUTOMOTIVE Seasonally adjusted 1987 JAN.-DEC 424,442.1 26,848.7 117,293.8 86,992.1 87,478.6 93,632.1 12,196.8 JAN.-OCT 349,775.1 22,383.1 96,859.6 70,877.9 72,231.7 77,278.5 10,144.4 JANUARY 33,133.4 2,242.1 8,928.5 6,376.0 7,095.6 7,485.1 1,006.1 FEBRUARY 32,854.5 2,025.9 8,442.9 6,654.7 7,456.9 7,434.7 839.4 MARCH 33,996.3 2,321.0 9,236.2 6,907.4 6,819.3 7,661.5 1,051.0 APRIL 33,639.1 2,247.4 8,757.5 6,853.4 7,010.7 7,819.9 950.2 MAY 34,336.7 2,147.7 9,616.9 6,810.5 7,068.9 7,599.8 1,093.0 JUNE 36,165.6 2,368.9 9,847.1 7,555.4 7,345.9 8,090.8 957.4 JULY 36,311.1 2,260.6 10,836.7 7,168.9 7,260.0 7,824.9 960.0 AUGUST 35,962.2 2,117.4 10,518.4 7,311.2 7,234.5 7,821.4 959.4 SEPTEMBER 35,745.3 2,181.4 9,709.7 7,640.2 7,302.8 7,803.0 1,108.1 OCTOBER 37,630.9 2,470.7 10,965.7 7,600.2 7,637.1 7,737.4 1,219.8 NOVEMBER 36,717.3 2,260.9 10,285.5 7,859.0 7,460.2 7,862.3 989.3 DECEMBER 37,949.7 2,204.7 10,148.7 8,255.2 7,786.6 8,491.4 1,063.1 1988 JAN. -OCT 378,774.9 22,295.6 104,208.0 85,279.7 73,981.8 82,524.2 10,485.2 JANUARY 35,759.4 2,324.5 10,145.5 7,627.0 6,920.5 7,798.1 943.8 FEBRUARY 38,932.9 2,372.2 10,089.9 8,977.2 7,716.3 8,818.8 958.4 MARCH 38,580.0 2,402.9 10,523.1 8,630.9 7,662.7 8,239.8 1,120.5 APRIL 36,332.8 2,169.9 10,095.4 8,063.4 7,325.9 7,685.2 992.9 MAY 37,240.0 2,162.5 11,075.4 8,356.8 6,679.5 7,999.0 966.8 JUNE 39,498.7 2,072.4 10,789.2 9,257.0 7,546.6 8,701.7 1,131.8 JULY 35,988.5 2,044.7 10,311.1 7,970.9 6,753.1 7,818.0 1,090.7 AUGUST 39,762.6 2,359.4 10,862.4 9,120.4 7,451.4 8,862.0 1,106.9 SEPTEMBER(R) 38,661.6 2,130.1 9,953.6 8,951.5 8,037.3 8,494.2 1,094.9 OCTOBER 38,018.4 2,257.0 10,362.4 8,324.6 7,888.5 8,107.4 1,078.5 Not seasonally ad justed 1987 JAN.-DEC 424,442.1 26,848.7 117,293.8 86,992.1 87,478.6 93,632.1 12,196.8 JAN.-OCT 350,363.1 22,383.1 96,843.1 70,816.5 71,806.0 78,369.9 10,144.4 JANUARY 32,167.0 2,242.1 8,934.6 6,021.2 6,871.0 7,092.0 1,006.1 FEBRUARY 31,124.2 2,025.9 8,396.8 5,943.6 7,144.8 6,773.6 839.4 33,926.6 2,321.0 9,214.8 7,174.1 6,940.3 7,225.4 1,051.0 MARCH APRIL 33,777.9 2,247.4 8,792.7 7,027.0 7,454.7 7,306.0 950.2 MAY 34,672.3 2,147.7 9,442.2 6,809.6 7,854.5 7,325.3 1,093.0 JUNE 36,927.5 2,368.9 9,995.9 7,661.6 7,751.0 8,192.7 957.4 JULY 37,455.1 2,260.6 10,851.6 7,613.9 6,789.9 8,979.1 960.0 AUGUST 35,388.9 2,117.4 10,457.4 7,069.4 6,437.6 8,347.7 959.4 SEPTEMBER 35,159.1 2,181.4 9,784.7 7,408.9 6,510.1 8,165.8 1,108.1 2,470.7 10,972.4 8,087.2 8,052.1 8,962.3 1,219.8 OCTOBER 39,764.5 NOVEMBER 36,738.7 2,260.9 10,205.0 7,613.2 7,923.8 7,746.6 989.3 DECEMBER 37,340.3 2,204.7 10,245.7 8,562.4 7,748.8 7,515.6 1,063.1 1988 JAN.-OCT 379,248.9 22,295.6 104,298.1 85,118.0 73,458.7 83,593.5 10,485.2 JANUARY 34,522.7 2,324.5 9,955.5 7,201.5 6,701.8 7,395.7 943.8 FEBRUARY 37,132.9 2,372.2 10,358.7 8,023.8 7,387.6 8,032.1 958.4 MARCH 38,633.3 2,402.9 10,628.5 8,961.5 7,765.4 7,754.5 1,120.5 APRIL 36,527.7 2,169.9 10,084.7 8,296.5 7,790.4 7,193.3 992.9 MAY 37,656.8 2,162.5 11,046.9 8,358.5 7,414.2 7,707.9 966.8 JUNE 40,158.0 2,072.4 10,829.9 9,389.4 7,939.8 8,794.8 1,131.8 JULY 37,083.7 2,044.7 10,110.5 8,504.1 6,334.4 8,999.3 1,090.7 AUGUST 39,369.9 2,359.4 11,054.7 8,788.5 6,629.5 9,430.9 1,106.9 SEPTEMBER(R) 37,934.7 2,130.1 9,944.3 8,703.5 7,168.5 8,893.4 1,094.9 OCTOBER 40,229.2 2,257.0 10,284.4 8,890.7 8,327.1 9,391.6 1,078.5 (1) Includes military type goods, estimates of low-valued shipments, and U. S. goods returned. 11 EXHIBIT 7. GENERAL IMPORTS (CUSTOMS VALUE) BY PRINCIPAL END-USE COMMODITY CATEGORY, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: JANUARY 1987 TO OCTOBER 1988 In millions of dollars. Details may not add to totals due to rounding and other statistical procedures. (R) - Revised. PRINCIPAL END-USE COMMODITY CATEGORY PERIOD TOTAL FOODS, FEEDS INDUSTRIAL CAPITAL GOODS, AUTOMOTIVE CONSUMER GOODS OTHER AND BEVERAGES SUPPLIES AND EXCEPT AUTOMO- VEHICLES. PARTS (NONFOOD), MERCHANDISE (1) MATERIALS TIVE AND ENGINES EXCEPT AUTOMOTIVE Seasonally adjusted 1987 JAN.-DEC 406,241.0 24,769.1 111,030.2 84,495.1 85,167.7 88,719.8 12,059.1 JAN.-OCT 334,338.5 20,629.9 91,319.3 68,841.4 70,329.3 73,188.5 10,030.1 JANUARY 31,665.6 2,074.8 8,387.5 6,195.9 6,910.9 7,098.3 998.2 6,462.6 7,276.5 7,038.3 829.1 FEBRUARY 31,825.1 1,860.3 8,358.3 MARCH 32,271.3 2,129.8 8,502.0 6,706.9 6,647.3 7,245.8 1,039.5 31,978.2 2,060.8 8,125.1 6,648.6 6,825.1 7,378.9 939.7 APRIL MAY 32,513.6 1,977.4 8,759.5 6,609.8 6,886.2 7,197.8 1,082.9 34,418.1 2,189.2 9,128.5 7,336.2 7,152.0 7,670.5 941.7 JUNE 34,625.4 2,081.6 10,163.3 6,965.4 7,048.0 7,418.6 948.5 JULY AUGUST 34,492.3 1,954.8 10,067.6 7,101.8 7,020.2 7,400.2 947.7 7,398.4 1,095.7 SEPTEMBER 34,582.4 2,015.9 9,523.6 7,425.5 7,123.3 OCTOBER 35,966.5 2,285.3 10,303.9 7,388.7 7,439.8 7,341.7 1,207.1 NOVEMBER 35,316.1 2,089.9 9,882.3 7,633.7 7,270.0 7,462.0 978.2 DECEMBER 36,586.4 2,049.3 9,828.5 8,019.9 7,568.6 8,069.3 1,050.8 1988 JAN.-OCT 363,537.0 20,559.9 98,460.7 83,058.6 72,310.2 78,795.8 10,351.9 JANUARY 34,257.6 2,131.7 9,458.3 7,490.6 6,760.6 7,489.5 926.8 37,729.0 2,185.5 10,000.7 8,614.2 7,599.1 8,388.4 941.2 FEBRUARY 36,643.7 2,202.7 9,612.3 8,402.9 7,475.0 7,842.9 1,107.9 MARCH 34,825.0 1,990.8 9,514.1 7,859.8 7,156.0 7,324.2 980.1 APRIL MAY 35,731.7 1,996.7 10,463.4 8,143.6 6,533.2 7,639.2 955.7 37,948.4 1,912.4 10,204.3 9,022.5 7,379.2 8,311.8 1,118.2 JUNE JULY 34,532.9 1,885.3 9,738.2 7,775.8 6,583.2 7,472.1 1,078.4 AUGUST 38,139.7 2,183.9 10,249.8 8,896.4 7,258.0 8,457.1 1,094.5 9,406.4 8,736.5 7,860.2 8,117.2 1,083.3 SEPTEMBER(R) 37,178.1 1,974.5 OCTOBER 36,550.9 2,096.4 9,813.2 8,116.3 7,705.7 7,753.4 1,065.8 Not seasonally adjusted 1987 JAN.-DEC 406,241.0 24,769.1 111,030.2 84,495.1 85,167.7 88,719.8 12,059.1 JAN.-OCT 335,271.4 20,629.9 91,694.9 68,780.8 69,916.6 74,219.1 10,030.1 30,798.5 2,074.8 8,461.9 5,850.9 6,693.4 6,719.3 998.2 JANUARY 29,810.3 1,860.3 7,968.6 5,772.0 6,972.8 6,407.5 829.1 FEBRUARY MARCH 32,464.3 2,129.8 8,733.1 6,966.0 6,766.0 6,829.9 1,039.5 939.7 32,291.1 2,060.8 8,324.8 6,816.6 7,257.4 6,891.8 APRIL MAY 33,170.0 1,977.4 8,912.9 6,608.3 7,651.4 6,937.1 1,082.9 JUNE 35,358.0 2,189.2 9,474.4 7,439.9 7,546.0 7,766.8 941.7 JULY 35,809.9 2,081.6 10,276.8 7,397.9 6,591.0 8,514.1 948.5 AUGUST 33,826.2 1,954.8 9,910.5 6,866.4 6,246.6 7,900.2 947.7 SEPTEMBER 33,667.5 2,015.9 9,261.1 7,200.5 6,349.1 7,745.2 1,095.7 38,075.6 2,285.3 10,370.8 7,862.3 7,842.9 8,507.2 1,207.1 OCTOBER 35,210.9 2,089.9 9,671.6 7,395.1 7,720.5 7,355.6 978.2 NOVEMBER 35,758.7 2,049.3 9,663.7 8,319.2 7,530.6 7,145.1 1,050.8 DECEMBER 1988 JAN.-OCT 363,825.4 20,559.9 98,475.3 82,887.9 71,734.0 79,816.2 10,351.9 JANUARY 32,995.1 2,131.7 9,288.3 7,047.2 6,507.8 7,093.3 926.8 35,569.0 2,185.5 9,859.9 7,700.2 7,240.4 7,641.8 941.2 FEBRUARY MARCH 37,030.0 2,202.7 10,027.9 8,725.6 7,583.4 7,382.5 1,107.9 8,086.9 7,609.7 6,855.4 980.1 APRIL 35,026.9 1,990.8 9,504.0 MAY 36,146.9 1,996.7 10,436.3 8,145.2 7,251.8 7,361.1 955.7 JUNE 38,589.5 1,912.4 10,243.0 9,151.5 7,763.7 8,400.7 1,118.2 JULY 35,582.9 1,885.3 9,547.1 8,296.0 6,175.0 8,601.1 1,078.4 37,741.1 2,183.9 10,432.6 8,572.6 6,457.5 9,000.0 1,094.5 AUGUST 36,459.1 1,974.5 9,397.5 8,494.5 7,010.5 8,498.8 1,073.3 SEPTEMBER(R) OCTOBER 38,684.9 2,096.4 9,738.7 8,668.2 8,134.2 8,981.5 1,005.8 (1) Includes military type goods, estimates of low-valued shipments, and U. S. goods returned. EXHIBIT 8-1. SUMMARY OF CHANGES IN EXPORTS (F.A.S. VALUE). GENERAL IMPORTS (C.I.F. VALUE) AND MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE BY COMMODITY GROUPING, COUNTRY, ECONOMIC AND GEOGRAPHIC AREA, NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: SEPTEMBER TO OCTOBER 1988 In millions of dollars. Details my not equal totals due to rounding and other statistical procedures. (X) - Not applicable. (R) Revised. TRADE BALANCE EXPORTS. F.A.S. VALUE GENERAL IMPORTS, C.I.F. VALUE ITEM TOTAL TOTAL OCTOBER SEPTEMBER OCTOBER SEPTEMBER CHANGE OCTOBER SEPTEMBER CHANGE TOTAL -11,752.4 (R)-10,698.1 28,476.8 (R)27,236.6 1,240.2 40,229.2 (R)37,934.7 2,294.5 COMMODITY GROUPING: AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES. 1,379.8 1,376.8 3,302.0 3,179.5 122.5 1,922.2 1,802.7 119.5 MANUFACTURED GOODS -13,584.6 -11,367.7 18,715.1 18,698.2 16.9 32,299.7 30,065.9 2,233.8 PETROLEUM AND PRODUCTS -2,905.2 -3,048.9 231.7 253.3 -21.6 3,136.9 3,302.2 -165.3 BITUMINOUS COAL 369.9 408.9 373.9 409.8 -35.9 4.0 0.9 3.1 NATURAL GAS -92.8 -94.8 19.7 19.8 -0.1 112.5 114.6 -2.1 NONMONETARY GOLD 40.9 32.3 184.7 143.3 41.4 143.8 111.0 32.8 FISH AND PREPARATIONS -270.8 -226.2 174.1 202.0 -27.9 444.9 428.2 16.7 CRUDE MATERIALS 158.6 313.9 1,078.5 1,202.9 -124.4 919.9 889.0 30.9 REEXPORTS 1,075.8 1,104.4 1,075.8 1,104.4 -28.6 (X) (x) (x) UNDOCUMENTED EXPORTS TO CANADA 1,518.3 (R) 742.6 1,518.3 (R) 742.6 775.7 (x) (x) (X) ALL OTHER 557.7 496.8 1,803.0 1,721.2 81.8 1,245.3 1,224.4 20.9 TIMING ADJUSTMENTS (X) -436.3 (x) -440.5 (x) (X) -4.2 (X) COUNTRY/ECONOMIC/ GEOGRAPHIC AREAS: CANADA -960.7 (R) -892.7 6,410.6 (R) 6,162.9 247.7 7,371.3 7,055.6 315.7 WESTERN EUROPE -1,146.2 -878.7 7,752.1 7,216.1 536.0 8,898.3 8,094.8 803.5 JAPAN -5,518.2 -4,084.3 3,206.1 3,244.5 -38.4 8,724.3 7,328.8 1,395.5 NEWLY INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES (NICS) -2,984.8 -3,076.9 2,788.0 2,891.3 -103.3 5,772.8 5,968.2 -195.4 OPEC -768.2 -687.2 1,239.8 1,343.0 -103.2 2,008.0 2,030.2 -22.2 MEXICO 31.8 -37.0 2,043.6 1,935.6 108.0 2,011.8 1,972.6 39.2 BRAZIL -518.8 -584.0 314.4 330.8 -16.4 833.2 914.8 -81.6 ALL OTHER 112.7 -21.1 4,722.2 4,552.8 169.4 4,609.5 4,573.9 35.6 TIMING ADJUSTMENTS (x) -436.3 (x) -440.5 (x) (X) -4.2 -(x) EXHIBIT 8-2. SUMMARY OF CHANGES IN EXPORTS (F.A.S. VALUE), GENERAL IMPORTS (CUSTOMS VALUE) AND MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE BY COMMODITY GROUPING. COUNTRY, ECONOMIC AND GEOGRAPHIC AREA, NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: SEPTEMBER TO OCTOBER 1988 In millions of dollars. Details may not equal totals due to rounding and other statistical procedures. (X) - Not applicable. (R) Revised. TRADE BALANCE EXPORTS. F.A.S. VALUE GENERAL IMPORTS, CUSTOMS VALUE ITEM TOTAL TOTAL OCTOBER SEPTEMBER OCTOBER SEPTEMBER CHANGE OCTOBER SEPTEMBER CHANGE TOTAL -10,208.1 (R)-9,222.5 28,476.8 (R)27,236.6 1,240.2 38,684.9 (R)36,459.1 2,225.8 COMMODITY GROUPING: AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES 1,527.1 1,520.1 3,302.0 3,179.5 122.5 1,774.9 1,659.4 115.5 MANUFACTURED GOODS -12,509.4 -10,358.1 18,715.1 18,698.2 16.9 31,224.5 29,056.3 2,168.2 PETROLEUM AND PRODUCTS -2,684.3 -2,812.6 231.7 253.3 -21.6 2,916.0 3,065.9 -149.9 BITUMINOUS COAL 371.0 409.0 373.9 409.8 -35.9 2.9 0.8 2.1 NATURAL GAS -92.1 -94.2 19.7 19.8 -0.1 111.8 114.0 -2.2 NONMONETARY GOLD 41.0 32.4 184.7 143.3 41.4 143.7 110.9 32.8 FISH AND PREPARATIONS -249.4 -204.9 174.1 202.0 -27.9 423.5 406.9 16.6 CRUDE MATERIALS 208.3 362.1 1,078.5 1,202.9 -124.4 870.2 840.8 29.4 REEXPORTS 1,075.8 1,104.4 1,075.8 1,104.4 -28.6 (x) (x) (x) UNDOCUMENTED EXPORTS TO CANADA 1,518.3 (R) 742.6 1,518.3 (R) 742.6 775.7 (X) (X) (x) ALL OTHER 585.6 552.0 1,803.0 1,721.2 81.8 1,217.4 1,199.2 18.2 TIMING ADJUSTMENTS (x) -445.4 (X) -440.5 (x) (X) 4.9 (x) COUNTRY/ECONOMIC/ GEOGRAPHIC AREAS: CANADA -922.0 (R) -854.5 6,410.6 (R) 6,162.9 247.7 7,332.6 7,017.4 315.2 WESTERN EUROPE -769.7 -533.4 7,752.1 7,216.1 536.0 8,521.8 7,749.5 772.3 JAPAN -5,211.1 -3,828.9 3,206.1 3,244.5 -38.4 8,417.2 7,073.4 1,343.8 NEWLY INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES (NICS) -2,711.0 -2,795.0 2,788.0 2,891.3 -103.3 5,499.0 5,686.3 -187.3 OPEC -598.6 -518.4 1,239.8 1,343.0 -103.2 1,838.4 1,861.4 -23.0 MEXICO 54.1 -16.0 2,043.6 1,935.6 108.0 1,989.5 1,951.6 37.9 BRAZIL -465.4 -526.2 314.4 330.8 -16.4 779.8 857.0 -17.2 ALL OTHER 415.6 295.2 4,722.2 4,552.8 169.4 4,306.6 4,257.6 49.0 TIMING ADJUSTMENTS (x) -445.4 (X) -440.5 (X) (X) 4.9 (X) 13 EXHIBIT 9. EXPORTS (F.A.S. VALUE) AND GENERAL IMPORTS (C.I.F. VALUE) BY PRINCIPAL COMMODITY GROUPINGS, NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: 1988 AND 1987 in millions of dollars. Details may not add to totals due to rounding and other statistical procedures. Dash (-) Represents zero. (NA) Not available. (Z) Less than one-half of rounded unit. (R) Revised. (x) Not applicable. 1988 1987 OCTOBER SEPTEMBER CUMULATIVE TO DATE OCTOBER CUMULATIVE TO DATE ITEM EXPORTS IMPORTS EXPORTS IMPORTS EXPORTS IMPORTS EXPORTS IMPORTS EXPORTS IMPORTS F.A.S. C.I.F. F.A.S. C.I.F. F.A.S. C.I.F. F.A.S. C.I.F. F.A.S. C.I.F. TOTAL 28,476.8 40,229.2 (R)27,236.6 (R)37,934.7 264,900.4 379,248.9 22,777.8 39,764.5 206,528.8 350,363.1 SUMMARY: DOMESTIC EXPORTS: GENERAL IMPORTS AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES 3,302.0 1,922.2 3,179.5 1,802.7 30,040.9 19,286.3 2,676.1 1,978.0 22,852.2 17,442.6 ANIMAL FEEDS 279.6 29.2 290.1 32.0 2,819.4 252.5 181.6 16.2 2,193.3 197.8 COCOA 0.8 50.0 1.6 60.8 10.0 804.3 0.6 98.3 11.6 882.2 COFFEE 4.0 192.0 3.6 201.7 34.0 2,116.0 5.6 345.8 40.8 2,555.5 CORN 564.6 1.2 500.3 0.7 4,145.5 13.9 280.2 0.6 2,708.4 7.8 COTTON, RAW 71.2 0.1 86.0 0.1 1,646.7 0.9 114.0 (Z) 1,184.6 0.5 RICE 79.7 4.9 61.8 5.5 633.3 57.2 61.3 3.5 464.2 35.7 RUBBER CRUDE 3.1 131.5 4.4 118.6 37.6 1,271.8 3.1 92.5 30.1 988.6 3,329.9 0.7 SOYBEANS 421.6 5.4 235.5 0.4 3,762.4 13.0 547.7 0.1 SUGAR 16.8 70.2 9.8 50.9 89.9 386.8 7.2 25.3 77.9 418.8 TOBACCO, UNMANUFAC- TURED 84.6 54.4 80.8 30.6 990.1 370.6 72.6 37.6 772.6 534.9 VEGETABLES AND FRUIT 362.8 402.5 323.2 369.9 2,863.2 4,436.0 354.5 355.2 2,399.0 4,315.5 WHEAT 377.0 9.3 490.0 6.8 4,060.9 58.5 280.9 2.9 2,545.9 33.6 OTHER AGRICULTURAL 1,036.2 971.5 1,092.4 924.7 8,947.9 9,504.8 766.1 1,000.6 7,093.9 7,471.0 MANUFACTURED GOODS 18,715.1 32,299.7 18,698.2 30,065.9 176,974.1 297,993.5 14,424.6 29,941.9 139,152.8 267,967.8 ADP EQUIPMENT: OFFICE MACHINERY 2,005.0 2,042.8 1,972.8 1,972.7 18,866.6 18,876.0 1,693.5 1,855.0 14,966.4 15,162.5 AIRPLANES 1,122.8 90.5 651.7 221.8 10,093.5 1,911.6 528.4 283.8 7.833.6 1,641.0 AIRPLANE PARTS 686.1 252.9 648.9 207.0 6,110.9 2,282.1 592.4 222.7 5,442.0 1,970.1 ALUMINUM 168.4 302.3 210.1 324.5 1,686.7 2,961.2 101.1 289.8 946.9 2,408.9 ARTWORK/ANTIQUES 60.3 221.8 55.2 147.4 769.0 1,676.3 51.3 182.1 578.0 1,556.9 CHEMICALS-DYING TANNING 59.1 74.1 60.3 73.2 589.3 889.0 51.4 97.3 521.6 897.1 CHEMICALS-FERTILIZER 241.2 80.7 239.7 75.4 2,108.8 901.0 218.0 66.4 1,849.4 675.1 CHEMICALS-MEDICINAL PHARMACEUTICAL 366.8 149.4 369.4 163.3 3,268.7 1,576.1 274.1 118.0 2,700.8 1,211.1 CHEMICALS-ORGANIC/ INORGANIC 977.8 957.2 1,349.6 844.8 10,736.3 9,236.4 750.1 768.6 8,728.2 7,257.0 CHEMICALS-PERFUME MATERIALS: POLISH- ING AND CLEANING PREPARATIONS 97.5 109.8 92.5 98.1 903.1 1,031.1 78.8 90.9 771.5 863.5 CHEMICALS-SYNTHETIC RESINS AND PLASTICS 505.4 200.1 535.7 199.1 5,251.4 1,926.6 385.6 175.0 3,813.0 1,558.9 CHEMICALS-TURPENTINE WAXES AND PRODUCTS, NSPF 276.3 164.5 367.1 127.2 3,116.0 1,460.0 244.3 111.4 2,571.4 1,159.4 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR. 161.6 2,639.1 178.2 2,704.0 1,497.8 26,409.1 126.2 2,599.3 1,094.3 25,235.7 COPPER 43.4 209.8 122.1 140.7 613.3 1,737.5 27.5 137.7 270.7 1,284.7 ELECTRICAL MACHINERY 1,986.3 2,970.8 1,873.1 2,814.2 17,872.4 26,020.5 1,529.2 2,416.9 13,592.7 20,515.3 FIXTURES-PLUMBING HEATING/LIGHTING 27.4 79.2 30.3 71.5 281.6 755.0 21.8 71.5 217.5 712.2 FURNITURE AND PARTS. 78.4 440.8 74.9 405.1 687.0 4,252.9 57.4 443.5 503.7 4,167.5 GEM DIAMONDS 70.8 450.3 93.1 342.0 737.9 3,679.8 55.8 324.8 534.6 2,913.3 GENERAL INDUSTRIAL MACHINERY 884.6 1,081.0 910.7 1,022.5 8,643.1 11,054.5 702.7 975.9 6,585.0 9,583.1 GLASS 65.3 77.6 65.2 70.7 605.3 681.6 51.8 75.7 494.5 673.0 IRON AND STEEL MILL PRODUCTS 196.3 845.3 202.3 883.0 1,433.1 9,203.5 88.0 742.5 920.1 7,539.1 LOCOMOTIVES: RAILWAY 522.8 VEHICLES 20.6 36.7 30.1 46.0 264.2 384.1 20.3 57.6 295.6 METAL MANUFACTURES NSPF 292.8 428.3 294.4 393.8 2,704.6 4,152.4 227.4 402.2 2,191.4 3,643.5 METALWORKING MACHINERY 177.7 263.0 161.7 247.8 1,559.0 2,761.5 125.7 244.2 1,306.2 2.546.0 MOTORCYCLES/PARTS BICYCLES/TRAILERS. 29.6 122.8 29.1 86.8 327.8 1,000.1 19.9 100.1 205.4 1,005.9 MUSICAL INSTRUMENTS/ RECORDING MEDIA 193.6 258.9 188.9 251.9 1,789.4 2,149.7 131.9 236.5 1,195.5 2,174.2 NICKEL 17.6 108.2 12.9 117.3 135.4 1,012.8 8.0 68.5 86.8 454.6 OPTICAL GOODS 35.3 110.6 33.6 103.0 345.7 1,121.1 31.5 106.5 303.4 1.077.7 PAPER/PAPERBOARD/ NEWSPRINT 314.9 377.7 351.6 401.0 3,236.0 3,886.0 257.2 363.6 2,625.1 3,483.0 PHOTOGRAPHIC APPAR- RATUS/SUPPLIES 207.6 306.1 203.0 237.7 1,923.1 2,368.6 173.6 261.1 1,689.6 2,170.2 PLATINUM 10.1 130.9 12.9 110.5 197.6 988.6 17.8 85.5 114.8 935.2 TTERY 6.3 129.6 6.3 133.2 45.3 1,202.9 3.3 153.0 30.2 1,199.0 WER GENERATING MACHINERY 1,248.6 1,039.5 1,089.5 944.5 10,577.8 9,359.4 841.8 891.0 8,162.3 8,174.1 PRINTED MATTER 160.0 156.6 164.8 159.0 1,586.5 1,389.8 127.6 153.9 1,278.4 1,297.9 RUBBER/PLASTIC ARTICLES EX TIRES 169.0 368.4 180.9 358.7 1,723.0 3,599.1 136.9 341.5 1,309.6 3,094.0 SCIENTIFIC INSTRUMENTS AND PARTS 796.2 444.5 766.6 432.4 7,320.9 4,339.1 679.1 426.1 6,053.5 3,771.8 SILVER BULLION 5.3 23.8 2.8 29.1 69.4 393.3 13.8 46.6 70.6 385.4 SPACECRAFT AND PARTS 31.5 7.8 21.5 6.0 363.0 62.6 57.5 20.4 258.0 49.9 SPECIALIZED INDUSTRIAL MACHINERY 1,030.6 989.2 1,017.4 966.3 9,706.8 10,569.1 801.1 962.2 7,471.0 9,118.1 TELECOMMUNICATIONS APPARATUS: EQUIP- MENT: AND PARTS 590.8 2,274.9 542.0 2,053.8 5,351.9 18,545.4 440.4 2,164.1 4.078.1 17.610.1 TEXTILE YARNS. FABRICS. AND ARTICLES. 317.8 563.1 346.8 511.2 3,011.4 5,630.4 249.2 625.9 2,416.2 5,755.9 TIRES AND TUBES- AUTOMOTIVE 64.0 196.7 67.4 175.6 642.8 1,798.3 44.2 164.1 415.3 1,692.7 TOYS/GAMES/SPORTING GOODS 113.1 778.5 106.6 740.3 1,036.8 5,837.7 75.2 702.3 720.0 5.371.8 TRAVEL GOODS 5.8 179.7 5.5 170.6 54.6 1,768.7 4.7 195.5 37.5 1,719.1 14 EXHIBIT 9. EXPORTS (F.A.S. VALUE) AND GENERAL IMPORTS (C.I.F. VALUE) BY PRINCIPAL COMMODITY GROUPINGS, NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: 1988 AND 1987 CONTINUED In millions of dollars, except percent. Details may not add to totals due to rounding and other statistical procedures. Dash (-)Represents zero. (NA) Not available. (2) Less than one-half of rounded unit. (R) Revised. (X) Not applicable. 1988 1987 OCTOBER SEPTEMBER CUMULATIVE TO DATE OCTOBER CUMULATIVE TO DATE ITEM EXPORTS IMPORTS EXPORTS IMPORTS EXPORTS IMPORTS EXPORTS IMPORTS EXPORTS IMPORTS F.A.S. C.I.F. F.A.S. C.I.F. F.A.S. C.I.F. F.A.S. C.I.F. F.A.S. C.I.F. MANUFACTURED GOODS-CONTINUED UMBRELLAS/BASKETS BROOMS/BRUSHES/ CANDLES AND OTHER MISCELLANEOUS ARTICLES 44.9 141.8 44.7 150.7 452.5 1,310.6 36.3 133.1 338.4 1,212.8 VEHICLES AND PARTS: CARS, NEW CANADIAN. 508.7 1,149.6 675.6 1,136.4 5,290.4 11,128.5 466.7 927.8 4,633.4 8,010.7 CARS, NEW JAPANESE. 28.8 2,109.0 52.2 1,398.7 201.6 16,425.7 10.8 2,167.6 50.7 18,188.0 CARS. NEW OTHER COUNTRIES 179.9 1,160.9 89.3 1,200.8 1,344.7 11,446.7 92.0 1,437.0 653.2 13,707.4 TRUCKS 261.0 757.7 258.2 624.9 2,479.1 6,433.5 237.3 514.3 2,084.3 7,043.2 CHASSIS/BODIES 48.5 177.9 50.8 153.7 499.0 1,619.2 46.2 162.3 497.3 1,227.9 PARTS 1,042.6 1,344.3 1,059.4 1,243.6 10,134.3 12,471.5 907.4 1,244.7 8,506.8 10,945.5 VESSELS/FLOATING STRUCTURES/PARTS 62.8 51.4 65.2 56.2 802.9 651.8 54.5 48.9 572.7 556.5 WATCHES/CLOCKS/PARTS 10.9 198.9 10.5 192.9 105.9 1,615.6 6.9 195.7 74.3 1,422.7 WOOD MANUFACTURES 67.2 185.4 68.9 228.1 684.2 1,952.5 57.4 226.3 555.7 1,916.8 ZINC 1.9 91.0 1.7 83.5 19.1 703.0 1.8 59.6 16.1 502.5 OTHER MANUFACTURED GOODS 538.3 2,196.3 582.5 2,011.7 5,115.6 19,392.4 389.8 2,065.1 3,919.5 16,995.5 PETROLEUM AND PETROLEUM PRODUCTS 231.7 3,136.9 253.3 3,302.2 3,003.2 35,109.4 322.6 4,341.4 3,159.1 37,192.5 CRUDE PETROLEUM 1.3 2,119.1 7.5 2,219.4 70.7 23,575.3 13.2 3,068.0 102.8 25,745.7 OTHER PETROLEUM PRODUCTS 230.4 1,017.8 245.7 1,082.8 2,932.5 11,534.1 309.4 1,273.4 3,056.3 11,446.8 MINERAL FUELS. EXCL PETROLEUM PRODUCTS 424.6 145.5 458.1 140.5 3,665.0 1,812.0 307.6 160.5 3,077.1 1,518.4 COAL 373.9 4.0 409.8 0.9 3,232.6 26.1 271.4 3.0 2,688.3 39.9 NATURAL GAS 19.7 112.5 19.8 114.6 182.3 1,482.6 17.4 139.0 246.2 1,324.0 NONMONETARY GOLD 184.7 143.8 143.3 111.0 4,427.9 1,057.5 103.2 273.1 1,002.3 1,401.9 CRUDE MATERIALS EXCLUDING AGRICUL- TURAL & FUELS 1,078.5 919.9 1,202.9 889.0 11,076.7 8,790.8 818.6 813.1 8,159.3 7,468.2 CORK. WOOD. LUMBER 333.2 284.2 368.0 289.5 3,642.1 2,932.0 292.9 313.5 2,581.7 3,007.1 PULP & WASTE PAPER 298.6 250.4 344.2 219.2 3,051.0 2,260.0 215.0 175.2 2,339.1 1,747.5 METAL ORES: SCRAP 357.1 304.0 377.7 303.2 3,422.5 2,878.5 245.4 262.5 2,411.6 2,129.8 OTHER CRUDE MATERIAL 89.6 81.3 112.9 77.1 961.1 720.3 65.2 61.9 827.0 583.8 FISH AND PREPARATIONS. 174.1 444.9 202.0 428.2 1,965.2 4,604.8 152.5 531.1 1,364.7 4,887.0 FISH- FRESH: CHILLED: FROZEN 82.7 173.3 144.8 174.4 1,280.2 1,837.4 74.4 223.9 882.4 2,113.1 BEVERAGES: TOBACCO EXCL. AGRICULTURAL 289.8 423.3 296.1 361.9 2,706.5 1.9 247.6 423.1 2,094.9 3,123.8 CIGARETTES 234.5 3.9 240.0 3.0 2,164.9 :.6 193.5 2.8 1,665.2 28.0 DISTILLED ALCOHO- LIC BEVERAGES 16.3 198.9 13.7 154.5 128.7 1,269.1 9.9 177.8 91.6 1,149.6 OTHER BEVERAGES: TOBACCO EXCLUDING AGRICULTURAL 39.0 220.4 42.5 204.3 413.0 1,987.2 44.3 242.5 338.1 1,946.1 JNDOCUMENTED EXPORTS TO CANADA 1,518.3 (x) (R) 742.6 (x) 8,027.3 (X) 797.8 (x) 5,026.9 (x) ALL OTHER DOMESTIC EXPORTS & GENERAL IMPORTS 1,482.2 793.0 1,396.7 837.5 13,235.3 7,796.4 1,103.5 921.2 11.079.7 9,060.3 REEXPORTS 1,075.8 (x) 1,104.4 (x) 10,061.7 (x) 798.1 (X) 7,296.6 (X) AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES 48.1 (x) 44.7 (x) 485.4 (x) 34.7 (x) 406.1 (x) MANUFACTURED GOODS 940.9 (x) 986.9 (x) 8,642.6 (x) 711.4 (x) 6,380.6 (x) PETROLEUM AND PETROLEUM PRODUCTS. 2.3 (x) 5.8 (x) 35.5 (x) 0.3 (x) 54.6 (x) NONMONETARY GOLD 43.8 (x) 12.4 (x) 407.8 (x) 11.9 (x) 99.0 (x) OTHER REEXPORTS 40.7 (x) 54.6 (x) 490.4 (x) 39.8 (x) 356.3 (x) TIMING ADJUSTMENTS (x) (x) -440.5 -4.2 -283.4 -487.7 1,025.6 381.1 2,263.2 300.6 1 EXHIBIT 10. EXPORTS (F.A.S. VALUE) AND GENERAL IMPORTS (CUSTOMS VALUE) BY PRINCIPAL COMMODITY GROUPINGS, NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: 1988 AND 1987 In millions of dollars. Details may not add to totals due to rounding and other statistical procedures. Dash (-) Represents zero. (NA) Not available. (2) Less than one-half of rounded unit. (R) Revised. (x) Not applicable. 1988 1987 OCTOBER SEPTEMBER CUMULATIVE TO DATE OCTOBER CUMULATIVE TO DATE ITEM EXPORTS IMPORTS EXPORTS IMPORTS EXPORTS IMPORTS EXPORTS IMPORTS EXPORTS IMPORTS F.A.S. CUSTOMS F.A.S. CUSTOMS F.A.S. CUSTOMS F.A.S. CUSTOMS F.A.S. CUSTOMS TOTAL 28,476.8 38,684.9 (R)27,236.6 (R)36,459.1 264,900.4 363,825.4 22,777.8 38,075.6 206,528.8 335,271.4 SUMMARY: DOMESTIC EXPORTS: GENERAL IMPORTS AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES 3,302.0 1,774.9 3,179.5 1,659.4 30,040.9 17,672.8 2,676.1 1,810.6 22,852.2 17,275.2 ANIMAL FEEDS 279.6 28.4 290.1 30.7 2,819.4 240.9 181.6 15.4 2,193.3 185.1 COCOA 0.8 46.5 1.6 57.0 10.0 754.5 0.6 92.8 11.6 827.0 COFFEE 4.0 181.1 3.6 191.3 34.0 2,013.0 5.6 324.2 40.8 2,431.5 CORN 564.6 1.2 500.3 0.6 4,145.5 12.9 280.2 0.6 2,708.4 7.3 COTTON, RAW 71.2 0.1 86.0 0.1 1,646.7 0.9 114.0 (Z) 1,184.6 0.5 RICE 79.7 4.2 61.8 4.8 633.3 49.4 61.3 2.9 464.2 29.2 RUBBER, CRUDE 3.1 123.2 4.4 111.5 37.6 1,188.8 3.1 85.3 30.1 910.1 SOYBEANS 421.6 5.4 235.5 0.4 3,762.4 13.0 547.7 0.1 3,329.9 0. SUGAR 16.8 66.0 9.8 46.7 89.9 352.2 7.2 22.5 77.9 382.4 TOBACCO, UNMANUFAC- TURED 84.6 51.5 80.8 28.3 990.1 346.6 72.6 35.2 772.6 503.6 VEGETABLES AND FRUIT 362.8 357.3 323.2 327.3 2,863.2 3,877.2 354.5 309.7 2,399.0 3,759.7 WHEAT 377.0 9.2 490.0 6.8 4,060.9 58.2 280.9 2.8 2,545.9 33.2 OTHER AGRICULTURAL 1,036.2 900.8 1,092.4 853.9 8,947.9 8,765.2 766.8 919.1 7,093.9 8,204.9 MANUFACTURED GOODS 18,715.1 31,224.5 18,698.2 29,056.3 176,974.1 287,588.8 14,424.6 28,801.4 139,152.8 257,445.8 ADP EQUIPMENT: OFFICE MACHINERY 2,005.0 1,996.6 1,972.8 1,929.2 18,866.6 18,434.6 1,693.5 1,801.4 14,966.4 14,713.1 AIRPLANES 1,122.8 90.3 651.7 221.4 10,093.5 1,907.8 528.4 283.3 7,833.6 1,637.: AIRPLANE PARTS 686.1 250.1 648.9 204.6 6,110.9 2,255.5 592.4 220.0 5,442.0 1,944.( ALUMINUM 168.4 297.3 210.1 320.4 1,686.7 2,909.6 101.1 284.1 946.9 2,353.2 ARTWORK/ANTIQUES 60.3 219.8 55.2 145.6 769.0 1,656.8 51.3 179.7 578.0 1,535. CHEMICALS-DYING TANNING 59.1 71.2 60.3 70.7 589.3 857.6 51.4 93.5 521.6 858.9 CHEMICALS-FERTILIZERS 241.2 75.5 239.7 69.4 2,108.8 831.8 218.0 61.7 1,849.4 621.9 CHEMICALS-MEDICINAL PHARMACEUTICAL 366.8 146.5 369.4 160.8 3,268.7 1,549.4 274.1 115.8 2,700.8 1,187. CHEMICALS-ORGANIC/ INORGANIC 977.8 918.7 1,349.6 809.8 10,736.3 8,807.6 750.1 730.8 8,728.2 6,901.5 CHEMICALS-PERFUME MATERIALS: POLISH- ING AND CLEANING PREPARATIONS 97.5 105.6 92.5 94.4 903.1 993.3 78.8 87.1 771.5 827.8 CHEMICALS-SYNTHETIC RESINS AND PLASTICS 505.4 191.8 535.7 190.4 5,251.4 1,835.8 385.6 165.9 3,813.0 1,472.: CHEMICALS-TURPENTINE WAXES AND PRODUCTS, NSPF 276.3 158.7 367.1 121.6 3,116.0 1,394.4 244.3 105.8 2,571.4 1,099.2 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR. 161.6 2,487.7 178.2 2,557.2 1,497.8 24,931.9 126.2 2,439.3 1,094.3 23,602.: COPPER 43.4 205.9 122.1 137.4 613.3 1,701.0 27.5 133.6 270.7 1,245.9 ELECTRICAL MACHINERY 1,986.3 2,902.3 1,873.1 2,749.1 17,872.4 25,407.4 1,529.2 2,355.2 13,592.7 19,977.: FIXTURES-PLUMBING HEATING/LIGHTING 27.4 74.0 30.3 66.6 281.6 702.6 21.8 66.2 217.5 656.: FURNITURE AND PARTS. 78.4 413.8 74.9 380.3 687.0 3,949.0 57.4 409.3 503.7 3,836.8 GEM DIAMONDS 70.8 447.1 93.1 340.8 737.9 3,662.3 55.8 323.4 534.6 2,900.0 GENERAL INDUSTRIAL MACHINERY 884.6 1,044.2 910.7 988.3 8,643.1 10,666.4 702.7 939.5 6,585.0 9,218.7 GLASS 65.3 74.4 65.2 67.7 605.3 648.2 51.8 71.9 494.5 638.2 IRON AND STEEL MILL PRODUCTS 196.3 787.3 202.3 821.6 1,433.1 8,534.9 88.0 687.5 920.1 6,973.1 LOCOMOTIVES: RAILWAY VEHICLES 20.6 36.2 30.1 45.4 264.2 376.8 20.3 56.3 295.6 509.1 METAL MANUFACTURES NSPF 292.8 408.6 294.4 374.9 2,704.6 3,945.5 227.4 380.3 2,191.4 3,440.5 METALWORKING MACHINERY 177.7 254.2 161.7 238.4 1,559.0 2,665.7 125.7 234.5 1,306.2 2,451.0 MOTORCYCLES/PARTS BICYCLES/TRAILERS 29.6 117.9 29.1 83.1 327.8 954.2 19.9 94.7 205.4 948.5 MUSICAL INSTRUMENTS/ RECORDING MEDIA 193.6 251.6 188.9 244.8 1,789.4 2,087.2 131.9 228.0 1,195.5 2,105.: NICKEL 17.6 107.7 12.9 116.6 135.4 1,006.9 8.0 67.8 86.8 448.. OPTICAL GOODS 35.3 107.6 33.6 100.2 345.7 1,088.3 31.5 103.5 303.4 1,044. PAPER/PAPERBOARD/ NEWSPRINT 314.9 370.0 351.6 391.9 3,236.0 3,805.8 257.2 355.7 2,625.1 3,407. PHOTOGRAPHIC APPAR- RATUS/SUPPLIES 207.6 298.2 203.0 231.1 1,923.1 2,307.7 173.6 253.7 1,689.6 2,114.: PLATINUM 10.1 130.5 12.9 110.1 197.6 986.3 17.8 85.3 114.8 931.4 POTTERY 6.3 118.9 6.3 122.9 45.3 1,105.9 3.3 139.2 30.2 1,093.: POWER GENERATING MACHINERY 1,248.6 1,022.0 1,089.5 929.6 10,577.8 9,201.4 841.8 876.3 8,162.3 8,037.1 PRINTED MATTER 160.0 149.6 164.8 150.5 1,586.5 1,327.0 127.6 145.8 1,278.4 1,235. RUBBER/PLASTIC ARTICLES EX TIRES 169.0 349.2 180.9 339.8 1,723.0 3,402.4 136.9 319.7 1,309.6 2,895. SCIENTIFIC INSTRUMENTS AND PARTS 796.2 434.0 766.6 422.0 7,320.9 4,235.9 679.1 415.6 6,053.5 3,680. SILVER BULLION 5.3 23.7 2.8 29.1 69.4 392.6 13.8 46.5 70.6 376. SPACECRAFT AND PARTS 31.5 7.7 21.5 5.9 363.0 62.1 57.5 20.4 258.0 49. SPECIALIZED INDUSTRIAL MACHINERY 1,030.6 957.3 1,017.4 936.0 9,706.8 10,226.6 801.1 928.6 7,471.0 8,792. TELECOMMUNICATIONS APPARATUS: EQUIP- MENT; AND PARTS 590.8 2,229.5 542.0 2,016.4 5,351.9 18,209.7 440.4 2,119.2 4,078.1 17,240.: TEXTILE YARNS, FABRICS, AND ARTICLES 317.8 532.4 346.8 482.9 3,011.4 5,317.4 249.2 589.1 2,416.2 5,410.: TIRES AND TUBES-- AUTOMOTIVE 64.0 183.9 67.4 163.9 642.8 1,675.7 44.2 153.6 415.3 1,579. TOYS/GAMES/SPORTING GOODS 113.1 736.2 106.6 697.8 1,036.8 5,505.8 75.2 650.5 720.0 4,994.t TRAVEL GOODS 5.8 168.9 5.5 160.3 54.6 1,660.6 4.7 183.1 37.5 1,597.1 16 EXHIBIT 10. EXPORTS (F.A.S. VALUE) AND GENERAL IMPORTS (CUSTOMS VALUE) BY PRINCIPAL COMMODITY GROUPINGS, NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: 1988 AND 1987 -- CONTINUED In millions of dollars, except percent. Details may not add to totals due to rounding and other statistical procedures. Dash (-)Represents zero. (NA) Not available. (2) Less than one-half of rounded unit. (R) Revised. (X) Not applicable. 1988 1987 OCTOBER SEPTEMBER CUMULATIVE TO DATE OCTOBER CUMULATIVE TO DATE ITEM EXPORTS IMPORTS EXPORTS IMPORTS EXPORTS IMPORTS EXPORTS IMPORTS EXPORTS IMPORTS F.A.S. CUSTOMS F.A.S. CUSTOMS F.A.S. CUSTOMS F.A.S. CUSTOMS F.A.S. CUSTOMS MANUFACTURED GOODS-CONTINUED UMBRELLAS/BASKETS BROOMS/BRUSHES/ CANDLES AND OTHER MISCELLANEOUS ARTICLES 44.9 130.2 44.7 138.2 452.5 1,200.0 36.3 120.8 338.4 1,099.3 VEHICLES AND PARTS: CARS, NEW CANADIAN. 508.7 1,149.6 675.6 1,136.4 5,290.4 11,128.4 466.7 927.8 4,633.4 8,010.6 CARS. NEW JAPANESE. 28.8 2,032.0 52.2 1,348.5 201.6 15,827.2 10.8 2,086.1 50.7 17,494.6 CARS, NEW OTHER COUNTRIES 179.9 1,135.3 89.3 1,168.7 1,344.7 11,149.9 92.0 1,400.7 653.2 13,368.9 TRUCKS 261.0 740.3 258.2 614.7 2,479.1 6,270.6 237.3 497.5 2,084.3 6,812.0 CHASSIS/BODIES 48.5 173.1 50.8 150.6 499.0 1,577.2 46.2 156.1 497.3 1,188.6 PARTS 1,042.6 1,309.7 1,059.4 1,210.2 10,134.3 12,125.0 907.4 1,206.9 8,506.8 10,632.9 VESSELS/FLOATING STRUCTURES/PARTS 62.8 49.0 65.2 53.9 802.9 626.4 54.5 46.1 572.7 525.5 WATCHES/CLOCKS/PARTS 10.9 194.4 10.5 188.7 105.9 1,579.0 6.9 190.8 74.3 1,388.4 W000 MANUFACTURES 67.2 172.7 68.9 211.1 684.2 1,819.2 57.4 208.4 555.7 1,772.4 ZINC 1.9 89.7 1.7 81.5 19.1 690.8 1.8 58.2 16.1 491.6 OTHER MANUFACTURED GOODS 538.3 2,093.9 582.5 1,912.9 5,115.6 18,409.7 389.8 1,899.6 3,919.5 16,076.5 PETROLEUM AND PETROLEUM PRODUCTS 231.7 2,916.0 253.3 3,065.9 3,003.2 32,634.5 322.6 4,081.9 3,159.1 35,169.8 CRUDE PETROLEUM 1.3 1,979.9 7.5 2,064.9 70.7 21,965.8 13.2 2,895.7 102.8 24,520.6 OTHER PETROLEUM PRODUCTS 230.4 936.1 245.7 1,001.0 2,932.5 10,668.7 309.4 1,186.2 3,056.3 10,649.3 MINERAL FUELS, EXCL PETROLEUM PRODUCTS 424.6 141.0 458.1 137.7 3,665.0 1,769.5 307.6 158.3 3,077.1 1,498.0 COAL 373.9 2.9 409.8 0.8 3,232.6 22.1 271.4 2.4 2,688.3 34.9 NATURAL GAS 19.7 111.8 19.8 114.0 182.3 1,477.8 17.4 139.0 246.2 1,320.7 NONMONETARY GOLD 184.7 143.7 143.3 110.9 4,427.9 1,056.1 103.2 273.0 1,002.3 1,393.7 CRUDE MATERIALS EXCLUDING AGRICUL- TURAL & FUELS 1,078.5 870.2 1,202.9 840.8 11,076.7 8,311.4 818.6 763.2 8,159.3 7,039.5 CORK, WOOD, LUMBER 333.2 275.3 368.0 281.3 3,642.1 2,840.1 292.9 303.5 2,581.7 2,898.2 PULP & WASTE PAPER 298.6 248.1 344.2 215.9 3,051.0 2,234.5 215.0 174.2 2,339.1 1,729.5 METAL ORES: SCRAP 357.1 280.7 377.7 280.2 3,422.5 2,656.1 245.4 236.1 2,411.6 1,950.1 OTHER CRUDE MATERIAL 89.6 66.1 112.9 63.3 961.1 580.6 65.2 49.4 827.0 461.7 FISH AND PREPARATIONS. 174.1 423.5 202.0 406.9 1,965.2 4,374.2 152.5 507.3 1,364.7 4,649.0 FISH- FRESH: CHILLED: FROZEN 82.7 161.2 144.8 162.5 1,280.2 1,707.3 74.4 210.5 882.4 1,974.0 BEVERAGES: TOBACCO EXCL. AGRICULTURAL 289.8 393.1 296.1 333.5 2,706.5 3,029.4 247.6 389.9 2,094.9 2,861.0 CIGARETTES 234.5 3.8 240.0 2.9 2,164.9 28.8 193.5 2.8 1,665.2 27.3 DISTILLED ALCOHO- LIC BEVERAGES 16.3 189.6 13.7 147.5 128.7 1,213.5 9.9 169.0 91.6 1,094.5 OTHER BEVERAGES; TOBACCO EXCLUDING AGRICULTURAL 39.0 199.7 42.5 183.1 413.0 1,787.1 44.3 218.2 338.1 1,739.3 UNDOCUMENTED EXPORTS TO CANADA 1,518.3 (x) (R) 742.6 (x) 8,027.3 (x) 797.8 (x) 5,026.9 (x) ALL OTHER DOMESTIC EXPORTS & GENERAL IMPORTS 1,482.2 796.0 1,396.7 842.8 13,235.3 7,841.8 1,103.5 928.5 11,079.7 7,650.8 REEXPORTS 1,075.8 (x) 1,104.4 (X) 10,061.7 (X) 798.1 (x) 7,296.6 (x) AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES 48.1 (x) 44.7 (X) 485.4 (x) 34.7 (x) 406.1 (x) MANUFACTURED GOODS 940.9 (x) 986.9 (x) 8,642.6 (x) 711.4 (x) 6,380.6 (x) PETROLEUM AND PETROLEUM PRODUCTS 2.3 (x) 5.8 (x) 35.5 (x) 0.3 (x) 54.6 (x) NONMONETARY GOLD 43.8 (x) 12.4 (x) 407.8 (x) 11.9 (x) 99.0 (x) OTHER REEXPORTS 40.7 (x) 54.6 (x) 490.4 (x) 39.8 (x) 356.3 (x) TIMING ADJUSTMENTS (X) (x) -440.5 4.9 -283.4 -453.1 1,025.6 361.5 2,263.2 288.6 EXHIBIT 11-1. EXPORTS (F.A.S. VALUE) AND GENERAL IMPORTS (C.I.F. VALUE) BY SITC SECTIONS, NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: 1988 AND 1987 In millions of dollars. Details may not add to totals due to rounding and other statistical procedures. Dash (-) Represents zero. (NA) Not available. (2) Less than one-half of rounded unit. (R) Revised. (X) Not applicable. 1988 1987 OCTOBER SEPTEMBER CUMULATIVE TO DATE OCTOBER CUMULATIVE TO DATE ITEM EXPORTS IMPORTS EXPORTS IMPORTS EXPORTS IMPORTS EXPORTS IMPORTS EXPORTS IMPORTS F.A.S. C.I.F. F.A.S. C.I.F. F.A.S. C.I.F. F.A.S. C.I.F. F.A.S. C.I.F. TOTAL 28,476.8 40,229.2 (R)27,236.6 (R)37,934.7 264,900.4 379,248.9 22,777.8 39,764.5 206,528.8 350,363.1 FOOD AND LIVE ANIMALS. 2,487.8 1,725.4 2,554.1 1,668.2 21,655.6 18,160.7 1,766.1 1,959.6 15,710.7 18,658.3 BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO. 374.3 477.6 377.0 392.5 3,696.6 3,656.4 320.2 460.6 2,867.5 3,658.7 CRUDE MATERIALS, INEDIBLE EXCEPT FUEL. 1,993.0 1,242.2 1,922.3 1,180.6 20,474.2 11,879.2 1,832.1 1,073.7 16,211.3 10,122.7 MINERAL FUELS. LUBRICANTS AND RELATED MATERIAL 656.3 3,282.4 711.4 3,442.7 6,668.1 36,921.4 630.1 4,501.9 6,236.2 38,711.0 OILS AND FATS- ANIMAL AND VEGETABLE. 125.7 95.9 158.2 87.4 1,245.0 724.6 86.2 67.5 776.1 490.1 CHEMICALS AND RELATED PRODUCTS 2,622.6 1,765.5 3,119.1 1,607.7 26,935.6 17,355.0 2,075.5 1,452.9 21,700.0 13,891.1 MANUFACTURED GOODS CLASSIFIED CHIEFLY BY MATERIAL 1,938.5 5,610.4 2,180.6 5,372.4 18,679.5 53,970.6 1,430.0 5,096.3 14,013.8 46,635.5 MACHINERY AND TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT 12,011.7 18,197.8 11,275.4 16,628.7 111,152.5 165,151.8 9,210.1 16,943.9 87,585.4 149,706.9 MISCELLANEOUS MANU- FACTURED ARTICLES 2,142.4 6,726.0 2,123.2 6,457.0 20,206.5 61,516.2 1,709.0 6,448.8 15,853.6 57,734.5 COMMODITIES AND TRANS- ACTIONS NOT CLASSIFIED ELSEWHERE 3,048.7 1,106.0 2,151.4 1,101.6 24,408.5 10,400.8 1,894.6 1,378.1 16,014.4 10,454.0 REEXPORTS 1,075.8 (X) 1,104.4 (X) 10,061.7 (X) 798.1 (X) 7,296.6 (X) TIMING ADJUSTMENTS (x) (X) -440.5 -4.2 -283.4 -487.7 1,025.6 381.1 2,263.2 300.6 EXHIBIT 11-2. EXPORTS (F.A.S. VALUE) AND GENERAL IMPORTS (CUSTOMS VALUE) BY SITC SECTIONS, NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: 1988 AND 1987 In millions of dollars. Details may not add to totals due to rounding and other statistical procedures. Dash (-) Represents zero. (NA) Not available. (2) Less than one-half of rounded unit. (R) - Revised. (X) Not applicable. 1988 1987 OCTOBER SEPTEMBER CUMULATIVE TO DATE OCTOBER CUMULATIVE TO DATE ITEM EXPORTS IMPORTS EXPORTS IMPORTS EXPORTS IMPORTS EXPORTS IMPORTS EXPORTS IMPORTS F.A.S. CUSTOMS F.A.S. CUSTOMS F.A.S. CUSTOMS F.A.S. CUSTOMS F.A.S. CUSTOMS TOTAL 28,476.8 38,684.9 (R)27,236.6 (R)36,459.1 264,900.4 363,825.4 22,777.8 38,075.6 206,528.8 335,271.4 FOOD AND LIVE ANIMALS. 2,487.8 1,603.3 2,554.1 1,548.0 21,655.6 16,762.5 1,766.1 1,816.9 15,710.7 17,234.8 BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO. 374.3 444.7 377.0 361.9 3,696.6 3,376.0 320.2 425.1 2,867.5 3,364.6 CRUDE MATERIALS. INEDIBLE EXCEPT FUEL. 1,993.0 1,170.7 1,922.3 1,110.8 20,474.2 11,178.8 1,832.1 1,002.1 16,211.3 9,480.2 MINERAL FUELS. LUBRICANTS AND RELATED MATERIAL 656.3 3,057.0 711.4 3,203.6 6,668.1 34,404.0 630.1 4,240.2 6,236.2 36,667.8 OILS AND FATS-- ANIMAL AND VEGETABLE. 125.7 89.2 158.2 81.8 1,245.0 670.9 86.2 61.5 776.1 440.8 CHEMICALS AND RELATED PRODUCTS 2,622.6 1,695.5 3,119.1 1,541.9 26,935.6 16,576.1 2,075.5 1,384.0 21,700.0 13,219.7 MANUFACTURED GOODS CLASSIFIED CHIEFLY BY MATERIAL 1,938.5 5,354.6 2,180.6 5,116.6 18,679.5 51,363.6 1,430.0 4,829.0 14,013.8 44,141.8 MACHINERY AND TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT 12.011.7 17,765.8 11,275.4 16,250.0 111,152.5 161,158.5 9,210.1 16,490.3 87,585.4 145,616.1 MISCELLANEOUS MANU- FACTURED ARTICLES 2,142.4 6,408.6 2,123.2 6,147.9 20,206.5 58,490.5 1,709.0 6,098.1 15,853.6 54,468.2 COMMODITIES AND TRANS- ACTIONS NOT CLASSIFIED ELSEWHERE 3,048.7 1,095.6 2,151.4 1,091.9 24,408.5 10,297.6 1,894.6 1,366.9 16,014.4 10,348.7 REEXPORTS 1,075.8 (X) 1,104.4 (x) 10,061.7 (X) 798.1 (x) 7,296.6 (X) TIMING ADJUSTMENTS (x) (x) -440.5 4.9 -283.4 -453.1 1,025.6 361.5 2,263.2 288.6 18 EXHIBIT 12. GENERAL IMPORTS (C. I. F. VALUE) OF PETROLEUM, NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: 1988 AND 1987 Details may not equal totals due to rounding and other statistical procedures. ENERGY PRODUCTS CRUDE PETROLEUM PERIOD BARRELS ALL OTHER NONENERGY TOTAL PER TOTAL TOTAL BARRELS ENERGY PRODUCTS DAY PER PRODUCTS TOTAL DAY Net quantity thousands of barrels) 1988 JANUARY-OCTOBER 2,248,501 7,372 2,229,120 1,563,309 5,126 665,812 19,381 JANUARY 214,691 6,926 213,575 141,507 4,565 72,068 1,116 FEBRUARY 232,502 8,017 231,205 152,084 5,244 79,121 1,297 MARCH 206,268 6,654 204,710 145,138 4,682 59,572 1,558 APRIL 213,506 7,117 211.637 146,548 4,885 65,089 1,868 MAY 240,450 7,756 238,558 173,098 5,584 65,460 1,893 JUNE 220,784 7,359 218,181 165,471 5,516 52,710 2,603 JULY 216,803 6,994 214,657 152,771 4,912 62.386 2,147 AUGUST 244,120 7,875 241,997 163,201 5,265 78,796 2.124 SEPTEMBER 226,243 7,541 224.021 157,823 5,261 66,198 2,222 OCTOBER 233,133 7,520 230,579 166,167 5,360 64,412 2.554 NOVEMBER DECEMBER 1987 JANUARY-DECEMBER 2,470,578 6,769 2,446,135 1,744,977 4,781 701.158 24,443 JANUARY-OCTOBER 2,056,290 6,764 2,035,335 1,459,417 4,801 575,918 20,955 JANUARY 166,458 5,370 165,082 120,578 3,890 44,504 1,376 FEBRUARY 197,255 7,045 196,238 129,293 4,618 66,945 1,017 MARCH 185,678 5,990 184,044 122,371 3,947 61,673 1,634 APRIL 168,919 5,631 165,804 115,176 3,839 50,628 3,114 MAY 191,549 6,179 189,855 142,168 4,586 47,687 1,695 JUNE 214,739 7,158 212,502 153,260 5,109 59,242 2,237 JULY 243,023 7,839 240,660 173,906 5,610 66,754 2.364 AUGUST 243,380 7,851 240,817 178,446 5,756 62,371 2,564 SEPTEMBER 212,148 7,072 209,166 155,962 5,199 53,204 2.982 OCTOBER 233,140 7,521 231,167 168,257 5,428 62,910 1.972 NOVEMBER 215,135 7,171 212,956 149,456 4,982 63,500 2,179 DECEMBER 199,153 6,424 197,844 136,105 4,390 61.739 1,309 ENERGY PRODUCTS PERIOD CRUDE PETROLEUM NONENERGY TOTAL UNIT PRICE ALL OTHER PRODUCTS (dollars) TOTAL TOTAL UNIT PRICE ENERGY TOTAL (dollars) PRODUCTS Value (thousands of dollars) 1988 JANUARY-OCTOBER 35,109,437 15.61 34,744,797 23,575,307 15.08 11,169,487 364,639 JANUARY 3.632,330 16.92 3,603,101 2,365,976 16.72 1,237,125 29,229 FEBRUARY 3,816,708 16.42 3,784,296 2,466,246 16.22 1,318,050 32,412 MARCH 3.237.533 15.70 3,202,771 2.226,677 15.34 976,094 34,762 APRIL 3,350,957 15.69 3,317,964 2,236,999 15.26 1,080,965 32,993 MAY 3,942,540 16.40 3,901,063 2,716,045 15.69 1,185,018 41,477 JUNE 3,574,200 16.19 3,533,988 2,591,408 15.66 942.580 40,212 JULY 3,418,377 15.77 3,379,409 2,290,684 15.04 1,088,725 38,968 AUGUST 3,697,683 15.15 3,658,303 2,342,802 14.36 1,315,501 39,380 SEPTEMBER 3,302,235 14.60 3,259,771 2,219,386 14.06 1,040,385 42,465 OCTOBER 3,136,873 13.46 3,104,131 2,119,087 12.75 985,044 32,742 NOVEMBER DECEMBER 1987 JANUARY-DECEMBER 44,762,370 18.12 44,279,405 30,839,923 17.67 13,439,482 482,965 JANUARY-OCTOBER 37,192,549 18.09 36,791,405 25,745,727 17.64 11,045,676 401,144 JANUARY 2,541,508 15.27 2,517,426 1,770,587 14.68 746,839 24,082 FEBRUARY 3,357,483 17.02 3,331,607 2,099,938 16.24 1,231,669 25,876 MARCH 3,181,868 17.14 3,145,173 2,030,098 16.59 1,115,075 36,695 APRIL 2,993,412 17.72 2,957,825 1,994,950 17.32 962,875 35,587 MAY 3,477,178 18.15 3,447,396 2,523,462 17.75 923,934 29,782 JUNE 4,018,938 18.72 3,971,249 2,776,830 18.12 1,194,419 47,689 JULY 4,649,334 19.13 4,599,975 3,231.592 18.58 1,368,383 49,359 AUGUST 4,699,796 19.31 4,649,177 3,375,836 18.92 1,273,341 50,619 SEPTEMBER 3,931,668 18.53 3,873,524 2,874,399 18.43 999.125 58.144 OCTOBER 4,341,362 18.62 4,298,051 3,068,035 18.23 1,230,016 43,310 NOVEMBER 3,991,165 18.55 3,941,682 2,697,598 18.05 1,244,084 49,483 DECEMBER 3,578,656 17.97 3,546,317 2,396,598 17.61 1,149,719 32,338 NOTE: All other energy products include crude petroleum derivatives to be refined. gasoline including motor fuels, jet fuel, kerosene, distillate fuel oil. residual fuel oil, propane and butane gas. naphthas and liquid petroleum derivatives, n.e.s. Nonenergy products include lubricating oil, lubricating greases, paraffin and other mineral waxes, asphalt. and other petroleum products. 19 EXHIBIT 13. GENERAL IMPORTS (CUSTOMS VALUE) OF PETROLEUM, NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: 1988 AND 1987 Details may not equal totals due to rounding and other statistical procedures. ENERGY PRODUCTS CRUDE PETROLEUM PERIOD BARRELS ALL OTHER NONENERGY TOTAL PER TOTAL TOTAL BARRELS ENERGY PRODUCTS DAY PER PRODUCTS TOTAL DAY Net quantity thousands of barrels) 1988 JANUARY-OCTOBER 2,248,501 7,372 2,229,120 1,563,309 5,126 665,812 19,381 JANUARY 214,691 6,926 213,575 141,507 4,565 72,068 1,116 FEBRUARY 232,502 8,017 231,205 152,084 5,244 79,121 1,297 MARCH 206,268 6,654 204,710 145,138 4,682 59,572 1,558 APRIL 213,506 7,117 211,637 146,548 4,885 65,089 1,868 MAY 240,450 7.756 238,558 173,098 5,584 65,460 1,893 JUNE 220,784 7,359 218,181 165,471 5,516 52,710 2,603 JULY 216,803 6,994 214,657 152,271 4,912 62,386 2,147 AUGUST 244,120 7,875 241,997 163,201 5,265 78,796 2,124 SEPTEMBER 226,243 7,541 224,021 157,823 5,261 66,198 2,222 OCTOBER 233,133 7,520 230,579 166,167 5,360 64,412 2,554 NOVEMBER DECEMBER 1987 JANUARY-DECEMBER 2,470,578 6,769 2,446,135 1,744,977 4,781 701,158 24,443 JANUARY-OCTOBER 2,056,290 6,764 2,035,335 1,459,417 4,801 575,918 20,955 JANUARY 166,458 5,370 165,082 120,578 3,890 44,504 1,376 FEBRUARY 197,255 7,045 196,238 129,293 4,618 66,945 1,017 MARCH 185,678 5,990 184,044 122,371 3,947 61,673 1,634 APRIL 168,919 5,631 165,804 115,176 3,839 50,628 3,114 MAY 191,549 6,179 189,855 142,168 4,586 47,687 1,695 JUNE 214,739 7,158 212.502 153,260 5,109 59,242 2,237 JULY 243,023 7,839 240,660 173,906 5,610 66,754 2,364 AUGUST 243,380 7,851 240,817 178,446 5,756 62,371 2,564 SEPTEMBER 212,148 7,072 209,166 155,962 5,199 53,204 2,982 OCTOBER 233,140 7,521 231,167 168,257 5,428 62,910 1,972 NOVEMBER 215,135 7,171 212,956 149,456 4,982 63,500 2,179 DECEMBER 199,153 6,424 197,844 136,105 4,390 61,739 1,309 ENERGY PRODUCTS PERIOD CRUDE PETROLEUM NONENERGY TOTAL UNIT PRICE ALL OTHER PRODUCTS (dollars) TOTAL TOTAL UNIT PRICE ENERGY TOTAL (dollars) PRODUCTS Value (thousands of dollars) 1988 JANUARY-OCTOBER 32,634,451 14.51 32,313,584 21,965,763 14.05 10,347,820 320,867 JANUARY 3,342,822 15.57 3,317,659 2,169,753 15.33 1,147,906 25,163 FEBRUARY 3,555,982 15.29 3,527,249 2,312,408 15.20 1,214,841 28,732 MARCH 3,002,417 14.56 2,971,218 2,066,842 14.24 904,376 31,198 APRIL 3,113,305 14.58 3,084,560 2,081,852 14.21 1,002,708 28,745 MAY 3,682,077 15.31 3,645,442 2,543,098 14.69 1,102,344 36,635 JUNE 3,340,324 15.13 3,305,404 2,428,877 14.68 876,527 34,920 JULY 3,175,047 14.64 3,141.164 2,134,222 14.02 1,006,942 33,883 AUGUST 3,440,612 14.09 3,405,100 2,183,883 13.38 1,221,217 35,512 SEPTEMBER 3,065,877 13.55 3,028,723 2,064,925 13.08 963,798 37,155 OCTOBER 2,915,987 12.51 2,887,065 1,979,904 11.92 907.161 28,923 NOVEMBER DECEMBER 1987 JANUARY-DECEMBER 42,285,408 17.12 41,858,899 29,320,513 16.80 12,538,386 426,509 JANUARY-OCTOBER 35,169,766 17.10 34,816,635 24,520,563 16.80 10,296,072 353,131 JANUARY 2,389,834 14.36 2,369,019 1,670,868 13.86 698,147 20,819 FEBRUARY 3,170,119 16.07 3,147,475 2,000,491 15.47 1,146,984 MARCH 22,643 3,014,197 16.23 2,982,503 1,941,812 15.87 1,040,691 31,694 APRIL 2,831,755 16.76 2,801,583 1,908,866 16.57 892,717 30,173 MAY 3,286,724 17.16 3,260,310 2,405,578 16.92 854,732 26,414 JUNE 3,814,905 17.77 3,772,771 2,653,680 17.31 1,119,091 42,133 JULY 4,409,792 18.15 4,366.158 3,091,110 17.77 1,275,048 43,634 AUGUST 4,461,008 18.33 4,415,542 3,224,968 18.07 1,190,574 45,466 SEPTEMBER 3,709,571 17.49 3,658,051 2,727,461 17.49 930,590 51,520 OCTOBER 4,081,861 17.51 4,043,228 2,895,730 17.21 1,147,498 38,633 NOVEMBER 3,774,234 17.54 3,730,085 2,559,393 17.12 1,170,692 44,149 DECEMBER 3,341,409 16.78 3,312,179 2,240,558 16.46 1,071,621 29,230 NOTE: All other energy products include crude petroleum derivatives to be refined, gasoline including motor fuels, jet fuel, kerosene, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane and butane gas, naphthas and liquid petroleum derivatives, n.e.s. Nonenergy products include lubricating oil, lubricating greases, paraffin and other mineral waxes, asphalt. and other petroleum products. 20 EXHIBIT 14. EXPORTS (F.A.S. VALUE). GENERAL IMPORTS (C.I.F. VALUE) AND MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE - COUNTRIES. ECONOMIC AND GEOGRAPHIC AREAS. NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: 1988 AND 1987 In millions of dollars. Details may not equal totals due to rounding and other statistical procedures. (X) Not applicable. (R) Revised. TRADE BALANCE EXPORTS (F.A.S VALUE) IMPORTS (C.T.F. VALUE) ITEM OCTOBER SEPTEMBER CUMULATIVE OCTOBER SEPTEMBER CUMULATIVE OCTOBER SEPTEMBER CUMULATIVE 1988 1988 TO DATE 1988 1988 TO DATE 1988 1988 TO DATE 1988 1988 1988 TOTAL -11,752.4 (R)-10,698.1 -114,348.5 28,476.8 (R)27,236.6 264,900.4 40,229.2 (R)37,934.7 379,248.9 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES -7,136.2 -5,464.0 -65,501.7 18,383.5 (R)17,502.0 170,281.3 25,519.7 22,966.0 235,783.0 CANADA TOTAL -960.7 -892.7 -9,300.0 6,410.6 (R) 6,162.9 58,989.0 7,371.3 7,055.6 68,289.0 COMPILED (X) (X) (X) 4,892.3 5,420.3 50,961.7 (X) (X) (X) UNDOCUMENTED (X) (X) (X) 1,518.3 (R) 742.6 8,027.3 (X) (X) (X) WESTERN EUROPE -1,146.2 -878.7 -13,410.2 7,752.1 7,216.1 72,447.6 8,898.3 8,094.8 85,857.8 EEC -552.7 -463.6 -10,048.7 6,795.6 6,332.2 62,556.0 7,348.3 6,795.8 72.604.7 UNITED KINGDOM 130.5 76.7 20.9 1,698.6 1,507.8 15,249.1 1,568.1 1,431.1 15,228.2 GERMANY -913.1 -1,027.9 -10,413.9 1,284.3 1,178.5 11,902.2 2,197.4 2,206.4 22,316.1 FRANCE -149.8 -79.4 -2.206.4 882.0 901.1 8,327.3 1,031.8 980.5 10,533.7 ITALY -401.9 -205.8 -4,508.4 630.6 551.8 5,599.3 1,032.5 757.6 10.107.7 JAPAN -5,518.2 -4,084.3 -44,762.7 3,206.1 3,244.5 31,148.8 8,724.3 7,328.8 75,911.5 AUSTRALIA. NEW ZEALAND. REP OF SOUTH AFRICA 489.0 391.8 1,971.2 1,014.7 878.5 7,695.9 525.7 486.7 5,724.7 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES -4,275.5 -4,427.6 -46,766.9 9,382.4 9,523.1 87,713.1 13,657.9 13,950.7 134,480.0 MEXICO 31.8 -37.0 -2,766.7 2,043.6 1,935.6 16,747.4 2,011.8 1,972.6 19,514.1 BRAZIL -518.8 -584.0 -4,844.7 314.4 330.8 3,546.8 833.2 914.8 8,391.5 NEWLY INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES (NICS) -2,984.8 -3,076.9 -25,977.0 2,788.0 2,891.3 29,023.4 5,772.8 5,968.2 55,000.4 SINGAPORE -253.4 -200.5 -2,034.0 505.4 496.4 4,685.1 758.8 696.9 6,719.1 HONG KONG -525.8 -476.4 -4,149.0 523.7 534.7 4,725.2 1,049.5 1,011.1 8,874.2 TAIWAN -1,375.9 -1,415.4 -11,611.0 811.3 898.3 10,370.8 2,187.2 2,313.7 21,981.8 REP. OF KOREA -829.8 -984.6 -8,183.1 947.6 961.9 9,242.2 1,777.4 1,946.5 17,425.3 EGYPT 144.6 179.1 1,688.0 159.6 197.0 1,889.8 15.0 17.9 201.8 OPEC -768.2 -687.2 -9,710.5 1,239.8 1,343.0 11,434.4 2,008.0 2,030.2 21,144.9 VENEZUELA -17.9 3.3 -989.8 411.8 469.4 3,728.8 429.7 466.1 4,718.6 INDONESIA -242.1 -184.9 -2,066.6 88.3 95.7 842.1 330.4 280.6 2,908.7 SAUDI ARABIA -166.1 -28.9 -2,086.5 314.7 377.5 3,127.3 480.8 406.4 5,213.8 NIGERIA -254.1 -233.6 -2,744.1 32.4 38.9 300.4 286.5 212.5 3,044.5 OTHER DEVELOPING -180.0 -221.5 -5,156.1 2,837.0 2,825.5 25,071.3 3,017.0 3,047.0 30,227.4 COMMUNIST AREAS IN EUROPE & ASIA. -380.6 -405.3 -2,444.0 671.1 616.9 7.029.7 1,051.7 1,022.2 9,473.7 U.S.S.R 176.5 73.7 1,760.3 215.0 115.9 2,228.1 38.5 42.2 467.8 CHINA -499.0 -440.3 -3,481.0 402.6 419.6 4,049.8 901.6 859.9 7,530.8 OTHER -58.0 -38.7 -723.4 53.6 81.4 751.7 111.6 120.1 1,475.1 TIMING ADJUSTMENTS (X) -436.3 204.3 (X) -440.5 -283.4 (X) -4.2 -487.7 TRADE BALANCE EXPORTS (F.A.S VALUE) IMPORTS (C.I.F. VALUE) ITEM OCTOBER SEPTEMBER CUMULATIVE OCTOBER SEPTEMBER CUMULATIVE OCTOBER SEPTEMBER CUMULATIVE 1987 1987 TO DATE 1987 1987 TO DATE 1987 1987 TO DATE 1987 1987 1987 TOTAL -16,986.7 -13,975.4 -143,834.3 22,777.8 21,183.7 206,528.8 39,764.5 35,159.1 350,363.1 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES -10,041.8 -7,523.4 -83,807.3 14,320.7 13,680.4 134,204.8 24,362.5 21,203.8 218,012.1 6,131.5 58,574.0 CANADA TOTAL -1,333.3 -1,286.8 -9,812.3 5,273.1 4,844.7 48.761.7 6,606.4 COMPILED (X) (x) (X) 4,475.3 4,844.7 43,734.8 (X) (X) (X) UNDOCUMENTED (X) (X) (X) 797.8 (2) 5,026.9 (X) (X) (X) WESTERN EUROPE -3,001.8 -1,709.1 -25,075.8 6,029.9 5,797.0 56,598.4 9,031.7 7,506.1 81,674.2 -1,401.5 -19,957.6 5,313.5 5,000.0 49,378.0 7,628.5 6,401.5 69,335.6 EEC -2,315.0 UNITED KINGDOM -393.7 -324.0 -3,157.6 1,213.5 1,171.6 11,577.3 1,607.2 1,495.6 14,734.9 FED.REP GERMANY. -1,325.4 -985.9 -13,298.6 1,064.7 977.2 9,528.0 2,390.1 1,963.1 22,826.6 FRANCE -347.7 -176.9 -2,734.2 728.1 649.2 6,382.8 1,075.8 826.1 9,117.0 -634.0 -342.2 -5,162.2 441.4 423.6 4,496.5 1,075.4 765.8 9,658.7 ITALY 22.609.6 8,256.6 7,056.7 72,796.4 JAPAN -5,864.2 -4,632.4 -50,186.8 2,392.4 2,424.3 AUSTRALIA, NEW ZEALANO. REP OF SOUTH AFRICA 157.5 104.9 1,267.7 625.3 614.4 5.235.2 467.8 509.5 4,967.5 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES -7,285.2 -6,220.4 -58,878.8 6,935.1 6,885.2 65,543.8 14,220.3 13,105.6 124,422.6 MEXICO -633.5 -417.2 -5,105.9 1,258.2 1,327.7 11.885.6 1,891.7 1,744.9 16,991.5 -3,627.8 387.7 398.3 3,268.2 879.7 734.6 6,896.0 BRAZIL -492.0 -336.3 NEWLY IMDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES (NICS) -3,773.6 -3,537.7 -32,615.7 1,877.2 1,895.3 18,466.6 5,650.8 5,433.0 51,082.3 SINGAPORE -248.8 -301.9 -1,934.5 353.3 311.7 3,271.6 602.1 613.6 5,206.1 HONG KONG -724.3 -632.2 -5,633.1 334.1 373.7 3,178.9 1,058.4 1,005.9 8,812.0 -1,782.5 -1,790.7 -16,678.8 577.2 558.6 5,451.6 2,359.7 2,349.3 22,130.4 TAIWAN. 1,464.2 14,933.8 REP. OF KOREA -1,018.0 -812.9 -8,369.3 612.6 651.3 6,564.5 1,630.6 EGYPT 94.7 33.3 1,537.0 129.6 83.6 1,929.7 34.9 50.3 392.7 OPEC -1,732.5 -1,556.7 -12,677.0 1,014.4 879.7 8,819.8 2,746.9 2,436.4 21,496.8 VENEZUELA -241.0 -131.9 -2,169.5 317.3 318.5 2,831.1 558.3 450.4 5,000.6 -228.6 -2,526.8 12.7 64.9 612.6 295.3 293.5 3,139.4 INDONESIA -222.6 SAUDI ARABIA -237.4 -190.5 -1,364.9 409.3 277.2 2,748.9 646.7 467.7 4,113.8 NIGERIA -320.2 -341.5 -2,803.9 19.7 19.5 237.1 339.9 361.0 3,041.0 OTHER DEVELOPING -748.3 -405.8 -6,389.4 2,268.0 2,300.6 21,173.9 3,016.3 2,706.4 27,563.3 COMMUNIST AREAS IN EUROPE & ASIA. -318.3 -341.0 -3.171.5 482.2 411.1 4,456.3 800.5 752.1 '.621.8 39.5 40.0 361.5 U.S.S.R 14.8 24.2 753.2 54.3 64.2 1,114.7 CHINA -244.6 -298.5 -3,140.8 376.9 304.1 2.750.3 621.5 602.6 5,891.1 OTHER -88.5 -66.7 -783.9 51.0 42.8 591.3 139.5 109.5 1,375.2 TIMING ADJUSTMENTS 644.5 100.4 1,962.6 1,025.6 198.0 2,263.2 381.1 97.6 300.6 NOTES: The export totals reflect shipments of certain grains and oilseeds that are not reflected in the country/area totals. Newly Industrialized Countries (NICS)--Singapore. Hong Kong, Taiman and the Republic of Korea. 2: EXHIBIT 15. EXPORTS (F.A.S. VALUE). GENERAL IMPORTS (CUSTOMS VALUE) AND MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE - COUNTRIES. ECONOMIC AND GEOGRAPHIC AREAS. NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: 1988 AND 1987 in millions of dollars. Details may not equal totals due to rounding and other statistical procedures. (X) Not applicable. (R) Revised. TRADE BALANCE EXPORTS (F.A.S VALUE) IMPORTS (CUSTOMS VALUE) ITEM OCTOBER SEPTEMBER CUMULATIVE OCTOBER SEPTEMBER CUMULATIVE OCTOBER SEPTEMBER CUMULATIVE 1988 1988 TO DATE 1988 1988 TO DATE 1988 1988 TO DATE 1988 1988 1988 TOTAL -10,208.1 (R)-9,222.5 -98,925.0 28,476.8 (R)27,236.6 264,900.4 38,684.9 (R)36.459.1 363,825.4 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES -6,379.1 -4,787.6 -58,145.0 18,383.5 (R)17,502.0 170,281.3 24,762.6 22,289.6 228,426.3 CANADA TOTAL -922.0 -854.5 -10,451.8 6,410.6 (R) 6,162.9 58,989.0 7,332.6 7,017.4 67,847.7 COMPILED (X) (X) (X) 4,892.3 5,420.3 50,961.7 (X) (X) (X) UNDOCUMENTED (X) (X) (X) 1,518.3 (R) 742.6 8,027.3 (X) (x) (X) WESTERN EUROPE -769.7 -533.4 -9,697.5 7,752.1 7,216.1 72,447.6 8,521.8 7,749.5 82,145.1 EEC -242.9 -179.2 -6,960.4 6,795.6 6,332.2 52.556.0 7,038.5 6,511.4 69,516.4 UNITED KINGDOM 189.5 126.8 593.7 1,698.6 1,507.8 15,249.1 1,509.1 1,381.0 14,655.4 GERMANY -840.5 -953.9 -9,656.7 1,284.3 1,178.5 11,902.2 2,124.8 2.132.4 21,558.9 FRANCE -110.9 -43.8 -1,821.1 882.0 901.1 8,327.3 992.9 944.9 10,148.4 ITALY -347.5 -165.5 -3,956.4 630.6 551.8 5,599.3 978.1 717.3 9,555.7 JAPAN -5,211.1 -3,828.9 -42,010.6 3,206.1 3,244.5 31,148.8 8,417.2 7.073.4 73,159.4 AUSTRALIA, NEW ZEALAND. REP OF SOUTH AFRICA 523.8 429.3 2,421.8 1,014.7 878.5 7,695.9 490.9 449.2 5,274.1 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES -3,571.9 -3,700.3 -39,468.8 9,382.4 9,523.1 87,713.1 12,954.3 13,223.4 127,181.9 MEXICO 54.1 -16.0 -2,547.2 2,043.6 1,935.6 16,747.4 1,989.5 1,951.6 19,294.6 BRAZIL -465.4 -526.2 -4,292.7 314.4 330.8 3,546.8 779.8 857.0 7,839.5 NEWLY INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES (NICS) -2,711.0 -2,795.0 -23,252.0 2,788.0 2,891.3 29,023.4 5,499.0 5,686.3 52,275.4 SINGAPORE -231.2 -182.7 -1,848.7 505.4 496.4 4,685.1 736.6 679.1 6,533.8 HONG KONG -471.3 -424.4 -3,682.0 523.7 534.7 4,725.2 995.0 959.1 8,407.2 TAIWAN -1,261.2 -1,295.7 -10,384.7 811.3 898.3 10,370.8 2.072.5 2,194.0 20,755.5 REP. OF KOREA -747.4 -892.1 -7,336.6 947.6 961.9 9,242.2 1,695.0 1,854.0 16,578.8 EGYPT 146.2 181.1 1,706.3 159.6 197.0 1,889.8 13.4 15.9 183.5 OPEC -598.6 -518.4 -7,979.3 1,239.8 1,343.0 11,434.4 1,838.4 1,861.4 19,413.7 VENEZUELA 8.7 31.7 -693.3 411.8 469.4 3,728.8 403.1 437.7 4,422.1 INDOWESIA -212.8 -157.5 -1,812.0 88.3 95.7 842.1 301.1 253.2 2,654.1 SAUDI ARABIA -119.1 15.8 -1,536.7 314.7 377.5 3,127.3 433.8 361.7 4,664.0 NIGERIA -232.2 -215.3 -2,548.3 32.4 38.9 300.4 264.6 254.2 2.848.7 OTHER DEVELOPING 2.8 -25.7 -3,103.9 2.837.0 2,825.5 25,071.3 2,834.2 2,851.2 28,175.2 COMMUNIST AREAS IN EUROPE & ASIA. -296.9 -324.3 -1,640.7 671.1 616.9 7,029.7 968.0 941.2 8,670.4 U.S.S.R 180.2 77.0 1,813.0 215.0 115.9 2,228.1 34.8 38.9 415.1 CHIMA -429.2 -372.8 -2,865.2 402.6 419.6 4,049.8 831.8 792.4 6.915.0 OTHER -47.8 -28.6 -588.6 53.6 81.4 751.7 101.4 110.0 1,340.3 TIMING ADJUSTMENTS (X) -445.4 169.7 (X) -440.5 -283.4 (X) 4.9 -453.1 TRADE BALANCE EXPORTS (F.A.S VALUE) IMPORTS (CUSTOMS VALUE) ITEM OCTOBER SEPTEMBER CUMULATIVE OCTOBER SEPTEMBER CUMULATIVE OCTOBER SEPTEMBER CUMULATIVE 1987 1987 TO DATE 1987 1987 TO DATE 1987 1987 TO DATE 1987 1987 1987 TOTAL -15,297.8 -12,483.8 -128,742.6 22,777.8 21,183.7 206,528.8 38,075.6 33,667.5 335,271.4 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES -9,255.2 -6,836.1 -76.562.7 14,320.7 13,680.4 134,204.8 23,575.9 20,516.5 210,767.5 CANADA TOTAL -1,299.9 -1,250.0 -9,473.4 5,273.1 4,844.7 48,761.7 6,573.0 6,094.7 58,235.1 COMPILED (X) (X) (X) 4,475.3 4,844.7 43,734.8 (X) (X) (X) UNDOCUMENTED (X) (x) (X) 797.8 (Z) 5,026.9 (X) (X) (X) WESTERN EUROPE -2,612.5 -1,376.5 -21,441.9 6,029.9 5,797.0 56,598.4 8,642.4 7,173.5 78,040.3 EEC -1.989.9 -1.123.6 -16,936.3 5,313.5 5,000.0 49,378.0 7,303.4 6,123.6 66,314.3 TED KINGDOM -337.6 -269.4 -2,626.6 1,213.5 1,171.6 11,577.3 1,551.1 1,441.0 14,203.9 FED.REP.GERMANY. -1,242.0 -912.6 -12,513.0 1,064.7 977.2 9,528.0 2,306.7 1,889.8 22,041.0 FRANCE -308.2 -143.7 -2,370.4 728.1 649.2 6,382.8 1,036.3 792.9 8,753.2 ITALY -578.1 -300.0 -4,617.7 441.4 423.6 4,496.5 1,019.5 723.6 9,114.2 JAPAN -5,539.6 -4,356.6 -47,314.2 2,392.4 2,424.3 22,609.6 7,932.0 6,780.9 69,923.8 AUSTRAL IA, NEW ZEALAND, REP OF SOUTH AFRICA 196.7 147.0 1,667.0 625.3 614.4 6,235.2 428.6 467.4 4,568.2 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES -6,476.9 -5,486.6 -51,733.1 6,935.1 6,885.2 65,543.8 13,412.0 12,371.8 117,276.9 MEXICO -613.2 -396.7 -4,894.5 1,258.2 1,327.7 11,885.6 1,871.4 1,724.4 16,780.1 BRAZIL -433.7 -284.5 -3.159.7 387.7 398.3 3,268.2 821.4 682.8 6,427.9 NEWLY INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES (NICS) -3,448.8 -3,227.3 -29,568.2 1,877.2 1,895.3 18,466.6 5,326.0 5,122.6 48,034.8 SINGAPORE -231.1 -283.5 -1,777.1 353.3 311.7 3,271.6 584.4 595.2 5,048.7 HONG KONG -660.6 -572.2 -5,099.1 334.1 373.7 3,178.9 994.7 945.9 8.278.0 TAIWAN -1,629.7 -1,638.3 -15,164.0 577.2 558.6 5,451.6 2,206.9 2,196.9 20,615.6 REP. OF KOREA. -927.4 -733.3 -7,528.0 612.6 651.3 6,564.5 1,540.0 1,384.6 14,092.5 EGYPT 97.2 36.5 1,562.3 129.6 83.6 1,929.7 32.4 47.1 367.4 OPEC -1,532.6 -1,384.8 -11,190.1 1,014.4 879.7 8,819.8 2,547.0 2,264.5 20,009.9 VENEZUELA -214.7 -110.3 -1,913.4 317.3 318.5 2,831.1 532.0 428.8 4,744.5 INDOMESIA -197.3 -204.6 -2,248.0 12.1 64.9 612.6 270.0 269.5 2.860.6 SAUDI ARABIA -161.2 -140.5 -982.7 409.3 211.2 2,748.9 570.5 417.7 3,731.6 NIGERIA -304.1 -325.4 -2.645.8 19.7 19.5 237.1 323.8 344.9 2.882.9 OTHER DEVELOPING -545.8 -229.8 -4,482.9 2,268.0 2,300.6 21,173.9 2,813.8 2,530.4 25,656.8 COMMUNIST AREAS IN EUROPE & ASIA. -243.9 -273.2 -2,482.1 482.2 411.1 4,456.3 726.1 684.3 6,938.4 U.S.S.R 19.7 28.0 787.4 54.3 64.2 1,114.7 34.6 36.2 327.3 CHINA -191.0 -245.5 -2,612.9 376.9 304.1 2,750.3 567.9 549.6 5.363.2 OTHER -12.6 -55.7 -656.6 51.0 42.8 591.3 123.6 98.5 1,247.9 TIMING ADJUSTMENTS 664.1 103.1 1,974.6 1,025.6 198.0 2,263.2 361.5 94.9 288.6 NOTES: The export totals reflect shipments of certain grains and oilseeds that are not reflected in the country/area totals. New ly Industrialized Countries (NICS)--Singapore. Hong Kong, Taiwan and the Republic of Korea. 22 EXHIBIT 16 EXPORTS (F.A.S. VALUE). GENERAL IMPORTS (C.I.F. AND CUSTOMS VALUES), AND MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED THREE MONTH-MOVING AVERAGES: JANUARY 1986 TO OCTOBER 1988 In millions of dollars. (R) -- Revised. THREE -MONTH MOVING AVERAGE TRADE BALANCE EXPORTS. IMPORTS, IMPORTS, F.A.S. VALUE C.I.F. VALUE CUSTOMS VALUE PERIOD C.I.F. CUSTOMS 1986 JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH -12,459.5 -11,171.5 18,358.7 30,818.2 29,530.2 APRIL -12,364.4 -10,999.0 18,426.8 30,791.2 29,425.8 MAY -12,606.0 -11,005.9 18,594.5 31,200.5 29,600.4 JUNE -12,211.1 -10,604.9 19,274.1 31,485.2 29,879.0 JULY -12,109.7 -10,509.3 19,597.1 31,706.9 30,106.5 AUGUST -12,630.7 -11,104.5 19,246.1 31,876.8 30,350.6 SEPTEMBER -13,672.0 -12,282.3 18,660.8 32,332.8 30,943.1 OCTOBER -13,638.8 -12,277.7 18,659.9 32,298.6 30,937.6 NOVEMBER -14,005.0 -12,683.7 19,101.6 33,106.6 31,785.3 DECEMBER -13,369.7 -12,034.3 19,425.9 32,795.6 31,460.3 1987 JANUARY -14,044.5 -12,714.5 18,983.4 33,027.9 31,697.9 FEBRUARY -13,668.0 -12,423.3 18,994.4 32,662.4 31,417.7 MARCH -14,027.9 -12,620.5 19,300.1 33,328.1 31,920.7 APRIL -13,529.2 -12,057.4 19,967.4 33,496.6 32,024.9 MAY -13,711.8 -11,975.5 20,278.9 33,990.7 32,254.4 JUNE -14,123.1 -12,379.3 20,590.7 34,713.8 32,970.0 JULY -14,336.9 -12,584.8 21,267.6 35,604.5 33,852.4 AUGUST -14,671.5 -13,037.1 21,474.8 36,146.3 34,511.9 SEPTEMBER -14,297.1 -12,857.6 21,709.1 36,006.2 34,566.7 OCTOBER -14,856.4 -13,424.0 21,589.7 36,446.1 35,013.7 NOVEMBER -14,371.2 -12,961.7 22,326.7 36,697.8 35,288.3 DECEMBER -14,325.2 -12,848.9 23.107.4 37,432.6 35,956.3 1988 JANUARY -12,896.9 -11,474.8 23,911.9 36,808.8 35,386.7 36,191.0 FEBRUARY -13,161.0 -11,804.7 24,386.3 37,547.3 MARCH -12,463.0 -10,915.6 25,294.5 37,757.4 36,210.1 APRIL -12,140.6 -10,591.2 25,808.0 37,948.6 36,399.2 MAY -10,589.6 -9,273.2 26,794.7 37,384.3 36,067.9 JUNE -11,093.8 -9,571.7 26,596.7 37,690.5 36,168.4 JULY -10,816.6 -9,311.9 26,759.1 37,575.7 36,071.0 AUGUST -11,652.7 -10,109.8 26,763.9 38,416.6 36,873.7 SEPTEMBER(R) -10,805.1 -9,284.4 27,332.5 38,137.6 36,616.9 OCTOBER -11,096.4 -9,571.8 27,717.8 38,814.2 37,289.6 THE CHAIRMAN OF THE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS WASHINGTON December 14, 1988 MEMORANDUM FOR WHITE HOUSE SENIOR STAFF FROM: BERYL W. SPRINKEL Sprinkel SUBJECT: Industrial Production in November This morning at 9:15 a.m. the Federal Reserve will release the Index of Industrial Production for November. Total industrial production rose 0.5 percent in November, after an upward revised increase of 0.5 percent in October. Production increases were widespread in November; production in both the mining and manufacturing industries rose 0.6 percent and production at utilities rose 0.4 percent. Production of final products rose 0.2 percent in November. Consumer products rose 0.3 percent, after a strong 1.2 percent increase in October. Business equipment production increased 0.4 percent in November, after no growth in October. Production of intermediate products rose 0.6 percent, with continued strong growth in construction supplies production. The growth in total industrial production in November continued its trend of the past year. Since November, 1987, total industrial production has risen a solid 5.1 percent. TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (Monthly Nov. 1986 to Nov. 1988) 140 139 136 137 136 135 Index (1977 - 100) 134 133 132 131 130 129 128 127 125 125 NOV 86 MAR 57 JULY 57 NOV 87 MAR ss JULY ⑉ NOV 88 OF DEPARTMENT COMMONWEALTH FEDERAL RESERVE statistical release OF THE SYSTEM For release at 9:15 a.m. (EST) G.12.3 December 14, 1988 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Industrial production increased 0.5 percent in November after rising a revised 0.5 percent in October and 0.1 percent in September. In November, the output of materials, business equipment (other than commercial equipment), and construction supplies led the advance. At 139.9 percent of the 1977 average, the total index in November was 5.1 percent higher than a year ago. Market Groupings Output of consumer goods increased 0.3 percent in November as production of light trucks and nondurable goods posted gains. However, auto assemblies, at an annual rate of 7.6 million units, were down slightly from October. Moreover, output of home goods, such as appliances, declined in November after rising sharply in October. Total production of business equipment advanced 0.4 percent in November as all major components other than commercial equipment continued to advance rapidly. Output of commercial equipment, which includes computers, decreased for the third successive month. Gains in materials production were widespread in November; the most notable advances occurred in the output of parts for consumer durables, basic metals, chemicals, and coal. Industry Groupings Manufacturing output increased 0.5 percent as most major industries posted gains; the only significant decline was in petroleum refining. Mining output rose 0.6 percent, and production at utilities increased 0.4 percent. Industrial Production: Summary Seasonally adjusted Index, 1977 = 100 Monthly percent change Current month from Item 1988 OCT NOV JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV a year ago 139.3 139.9 1.1 .3 .1 .5 .5 5.1 Total Market Groupings 148.2 148.7 .8 .5 .1 .5 .3 5.4 Products, total 146.7 146.9 .7 .5 .0 .6 .2 5.5 Final products Consumer goods 136.4 136.8 .9 .6 -0.1 1.2 .3 5.7 129.1 128.9 .0 .3 .5 2.2 -0.1 4.1 Durable goods 1.2 .7 -0.3 .9 .4 6.3 Nondurable goods 139.2 139.7 160.7 161.3 .8 .5 .4 .0 .4 8.8 Business equipment 184.4 184.3 .2 .0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -2.3 Defense and space Intermediate products 153.8 154.8 1.0 .5 .5 .5 .6 5.1 139.6 140.7 .6 -0.2 .4 .7 .8 4.8 Construction supplies 127.1 128.0 1.6 .1 .0 .5 .7 4.5 Materials Industry Groupings 145.3 146.0 1.1 .3 .3 .6 .5 5.9 Manufacturing 144.7 145.4 .9 .2 .4 .6 .5 6.4 Durable 146.2 146.8 1.4 .3 .1 .6 .4 5.1 Nondurable 102.6 103.2 1.3 -0.5 -0.2 -0.9 .6 -1.4 Mining 113.5 114.0 1.0 2.9 -4.2 .6 .4 .7 Utilities -2- Capacity Utilization Capacity utilization in total industry for November 1988 was estimated at 84.2 percent, up 0.2 percentage point from October. In manufacturing, capacity utilization for November was 84.5 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than in October, and 2.3 percentage points above a year ago. Detailed data for capacity utilization are shown separately, in release G.3. Revisions Total Industrial Production (Estimates as shown last month and current estimates) Index (1977=100) Percentage change Month from previous month Previous Current Previous Current August 138.4 138.5 .3 .3 September 138.7 138.6 .2 .1 October 139.2 139.3 .4 .5 November NA 139.9 NA .5 NA--not applicable. OF FEDERAL RESERVE THE SYSTEM Industrial Production INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION NOVEMBER DATA Seasonally adjusted, ratio scale, 1977=100 160 Total Index 140 Products 120 Materials 100 80 160 Manufacturing Materials Nondurable 140 Nondurable Durable 120 Durable 100 Energy 80 180 Consumer Goods Intermediate Products Business 160 supplies Nondurable 140 120 Construction Durable supplies 100 80 240 140 Motor Vehicles and Parts Final Products Defense and 200 120 space 100 Business 160 equipment 140 80 120 Consumer goods 100 60 80 1982 1984 1986 1988 1982 1984 1986 1988 Table 1A INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: MARKET GROUPINGS Seasonally adjusted, 1977 = 100 1977 1987 Bajor Market Pro- Ann. 1987 1988 Groupings por- Avg. NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR BAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV tion 100.00 129.8 133.2 133.9 134.4 134.4 134.7 135.4 136.1 130.5 138.0 138.5 138.6 139.3 139.9 TOTAL INDEX PRODUCTS, TOTAL 57.721 138.3 141.0 141.31 142.7 143.4 143.6 144.1 145.0 145.3 140.5 147.3 147.5 148.2 148.7 FINAL PRODUCTS 44.77 136.8 139.2 139.81 141.1 141.6 141.8 142.5 143.5 144.0 145.0 145.8 145.8 146.7 146.9 127.8 129.4 129.81 131.2 131.3 131.2 131.9 132.7 133.0 134.2 135.0 134.8 136.4 136.8 CONSUMER GOODS 25.52 EQUIPMENT, TOTAL 19.25/ 148.91 152.2 153.1) 154.3 155.3 155.9 156.5 157.7 158.5 159.4 100.1 160.4 160.2 160.4 148.1 149.4 149.9 149.6 150.4 150.0 151.6 152.3 153.1 153.8 154.8 INTERMEDIATE PRODUCTS 12.94 143.4 147.3 146.51 42.28 118.21 122.5 123.71 123.0 122.1 122.5 123.6 123.9 124.5 126.4 126.5 126.5 127.1 128.0 NATERIALS 25.52 127.8 129.4 129.8 131.2 131.3 131.2 131.9 132.7 133.0 134.2 135.0 134.8 136.4 136.8 CONSUMER GOODS DURABLE CONSUMER GOODS 6.89 120.2 123.9 120.31 121.7 120.6 120.4 123.3 125.6 125.3 125.3 125.7 126.3 129.1 128.9 127.1 124.4 124.2 126.3 128.6 129.8 Automotive products 2.98) 118.5 121.3 115.41 118.7 117.6 120.6 121.9 127.1 Autos and trucks, consumer 1.791 115.1 118.7 110.21 112.8 111.8 116.4 118.0 126.9 125.3 120.8 123.1 124.8 128.3 129.5 1.161 90.71 91.9 83.7 77.5 79.5 86.3 91.0 98.9 99.0 93.8 93.0 97.7 101.3 101.0 Autos, consumer Trucks, COLSUBER .63 160.51 168.5 159.51 178.3 171.6 172.2 168.2 178.9 174.1 170.8 179.0 175.3 178.4 129.1 130.2 Auto parts & allied gds 1.19 123.5 125.2 123.31 127.7 126.4 126.9 127.8 127.4 129.7 129.9 125.9 128.6 Home goods 3.91 121.6 125.8 123.9 124.0 122.8 120.2 124.3 124.4 123.9 125.9 126.8 126.3 129.4 128.2 Appliances, TV & air-cond 1.241 150.1 142.7 142.2 140.6 132.8 143.2 142.2 138.0 143.3 146.5 144.9 154.4 150.1 1.19 150.5 142.6 140.9 141.4 132.7 142.2 143.0 137.1 143.8 146.1 143.7 151.9 Appliances and TV Carpeting & furniture .96 133.5 133.91 134.2 132.3 133.1 133.1 135.8 135.9 130.6 137.2 137.3 137.8 Misc. home goods 1.71 102.0 103.9 104.81 105.2 104.7 103.9 105.7 105.2 107.0 107.4 106.8 106.8 106.6 NONDURABLE CONSUMER GOODS 18.63 130.6 131.5 133.31 134.7 135.3 135.1 135.1 135.4 135.8 137.5 138.5 138.0 139.2 139.7 3.341 99.4 100.3 99.61 100.3 100.7 101.5 101.6 100.1 100.8 101.7 101.2 102.0 102.0 Clothing 15.29 137.4 138.3 140.71 142.3 142.9 142.5 142.5 143.1 143.5 145.3 146.6 145.8 147.3 147.9 Consumer staples 7.80) 137.3 139.21 140.3 140.8 139.4 138.3 139.2 139.3 141.1 141.3 141.0 142.4 Consumer foods & tobacco Nonfood staples 7.49 138.5 139.4 142.21 144.3 145.0 145.7 146.8 147.0 147.9 149.6 152.1 150.9 152.4 152.7 163.5 167.71 170.7 171.7 172.7 175.6 177.9 179.5 181.8 183.8 185.1 186.0 Consumer chem. products 2.75 162.9 Consumer paper products 1.88 151.9 152.8 157.01 157.1 157.5 159.1 161.4 162.4 162.8 164.0 165.3 167.0 168.3 2.861 106.31 107.4 108.01 110.6 111.3 111.0 109.0 107.3 107.7 109.3 113.0 107.5 109.6 Consumer energy Consumer fuel 1.441 93.11 93.2 95.41 95.4 97.0 97.9 98.9 94.3 93.0 94.6 95.5 92.5 95.7 121.8 120.71 126.0 125.8 124.5 120.5 120.6 122.6 124.4 130.9 122.8 Residential utilities 1.42 119.8) 19.25 148.9 152.2 153.1 154.3 155.3 155.9 156.5 157.7 158.5 159.4 160.1 160.4 160.2 160.4 EQUIPMENT, TOTAL 18.01 153.6 156.6 157.81 159.2 160.3 160.8 161.4 162.7 [email protected] 164.6 165.2 165.7 165.5 166.0 BUSINESS & DEFENSE EQUIP. BOSINESS EQUIPMENT 14.34 144.5 148.3 149.81 151.2 152.4 153.3 154.6 156.9 158.1 159.3 160.2 160.8 160.7 161.3 70.8 71.8 72.4 73.6 73.1 73.9 74.6 75.3 Constr, mining, E tara 2.09 62.21 66.3 67.41 67.1 67.6 68.3 Manufacturing equipment 3.27 117.9 120.6 122.21 125.4 124.9 127.0 127.7 128.3 130.3 132.4 134.0 135.5 136.8 138.3 1.27 82.6 83.1 84.21 86.2 88.3 87.8 87.0 87.4 88.3 89.8 90.9 92.2 92.6 93.3 Power equipment Comercial equipment 5.22 232.1 235.51 238.0 240.3 239.9 241.5 245.7 247.1 248.2 249.8 249.2 246.5 246.1 115.2 116.6 119.3 120.7 Transit equipment 2.49 111.2 109.11 106.5 108.2 111.1 112.3 115.3 115.7 115.9 DEFENSE & SPACE EQUIPMENT 3.67 188.9 188.7 188.91 190.6 191.0 189.9 187.9 185.5 184.0 184.9 184.9 184.6 184.4 184.3 INTERNEDIATE PRODUCTS 12.94 143. 147.3 146.5 148.1 149.4 149.9 149.6 150.4 150.0 151.6 152.3 153.1 153.8 154.8 Construction supplies 5.95 131.5 134.2 133.81 136.8 137.7 137.3 137.6 138.8 137.6 138.4 138.1 138.6 139.6 140.7 Business supplies 6.99 158.4 157.41 157.8 159.4 160.7 159.9 160.3 160.6 162.8 164.4 165.4 165.9 Gen. business supplies 5.67 158.71 164.3 163.31 163.1 165.0 166.6 165.7 165.5 165.9 168.6 170.6 172.1 172.6 Commercial energy prod. 1.31 131.2 132.9 131.8 135.0 135.3 135.3 134.6 137.8 137.5 137.6 137.7 136.4 136.7 42.28 118.2 122.5 123.7 123.0 122.1 122.5 123.6 123.9 124.5 126.4 126.5 126.5 127.1 128.0 MATERIALS 20.50 125.0 130.2 132.01 131.8 131.4 131.3 132.7 134.8 134.9 136.8 136.6 137.9 138.8 139.7 DURABLE GOODS MATERIALS 4.921 100.91 103.1 104.01 104.7 104.4 103.5 106.2 110.0 110.3 110.1 109.8 111.0 111.8 113.0 Consumer durable parts Equipment parts 5.94 159.0 163.2 165.31 167.4 167.6 167.3 168.9 170.8 171.6 174.1 173.5 173.8 174.6 174.9 123.0 123.4 124.0 125.3 124.8 127.5 127.6 129.4 130.5 131.7 Dorable materials nec 9.64) 116.4 123.6 125.51 123.7 Basic metal materials 4.641 86.61 96.5 100.01 92.9 91.4 90.5 91.6 94.8 93.7 98.4 97.3 100.3 100.8 101.5 NONDURABLE GOODS MATERIALS 10.10 125.9 129.6 132.5 129.9 128.1 130.1 131.1 130.1 130.1 132.8 133.1 132.6 133.8 134.8 &CAEL. mater. 7.531 127.7 132.3 135.61 132.7 129.9 132.4 133.3 131.9 132.1 135.3 135.7 135.0 136.2 137.1 107.5 108.5 110.1 108.3 108.2 Textile materials 1.521 112.01 112.7 113.61 112.6 110.2 112.7 111.9 107.5 Pulp & paper materials 1.551 141.01 144.4 149.01 148.0 144.4 144.8 145.8 146.4 145.4 150.3 148.3 148.1 149.0 Chemical materials 4.461 128.41 134.7 138.41 134.2 131.5 134.8 136.2 135.1 135.8 139.2 140.0 139.5 141.3 Misc. nondurable materials 2.57 120.5 121.7 123.31 121.8 123.0 123.2 124.6 125.1 124.2 125.6 125.6 125.8 102.7 103.2 101.3 100.8 101.6 ENERGY MATLRIALS 11.69 99.81 102.8 101.7 101.4 100.6 100.6 101.0 99.5 101.3 Primary energy 7.57 105.01 108.4 107.71 107.3 104.8 105.0 106.7 104.0 105.6 106.8 106.2 106.5 105.8 Converted fuel materials 4.12) 90.21 92.6 90.7 90.6 93.0 92.6 90.5 91.2 93.5 95.3 97.7 91.7 91.5 NOTE: Two components--011 and gas well drilling and manufactured homes--are included in total equipment but not shown here. They are shown in Tables 4A and 4D on page 8 and 9. 4 Table 1B INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: MARKET GROUPINGS Not seasonally adjusted, 1977 = 100 1977 1987 Major Market Pro- Ann. 1987 1988 Groupings por- Avg. NOV DEC JAN FEB BAR APR MAY JUN JOL AUG SEP OCT BOV tion TOTAL INDEX 100.00 129.8 132.7 129.9 130.8 134.2 134.1 133.9 135.0 139.3 136.3 141.7 143.1 141.9 139.5 PRODUCTS, TOTAL 57.72 138.3 140.5 136.8 137.7 141.1 141.1 141.2 143.2 149.1 146.1 152.6 154.7 152.3 148.3 FINAL PRODUCTS 44.77 136.8 138.6 135.51 137.0 140.0 139.8 139.4 141.7 147.5 143.8 150.6 152.6 150.5 146.6 CONSUMER GOODS 25.52 127.8 128.4 123.6 126.1 129.3 128.3 128.8 130.8 137.3 133.2 141.3 143.0 141.3 136.0 EQUIPMENT, TOTAL 19.25 148.9 152.0 151.3 151.5 154.2 155.0 153.5 156.0 161.1 158.0 162.8 165.3 162.6 160.5 INTERMEDIATE PRODUCTS 12.94 143.4 147.3 141.4 139.9 145.0 145.4 147.2 148.6 154.5 153.9 159.8 161.9 158.8 154.4 MATERIALS 42.28 118.2 121.9 120.5 121.5 124.8 124.6 124.0 123.7 126.0 122.8 126.8 127.3 127.7 127.4 CONSUMER GOODS 25.52 127.8 128.4 123.6 126.1 129.3 128.3 128.8 130.8 137.3 133.2 141.3 143.0 141.3 136.0 DURABLE CONSUMER GOODS 6.89 120.2 124.9 110.61 118.0 124.2 123.4 126.0 127.5 129.5 110.2 122.8 130.3 138.9 130.9 Automotive products 2.98 118.5 121.6 103.9 117.4 124.7 127.6 127.0 132.3 136.4 99.8 115.0 130.4 136.9 130.8 Autos and trucks,consuBer] 1.79 115.1 119.4 92.61 112.1 124.6 128.5 126.3 136.9 140.9 82.9 105.8 128.5 138.5 131.2 Autos, consumer 1.161 90.71 93.8 71.61 78.2 90.8 97.3 98.8 107.9 113.5 59.9 74.6 97.6 110.2 102.4 Trucks, consumer .63 160.5 167.0 131.71 175.0 187.3 186.4 177.4 190.6 191.7 125.7 163.7 185.8 191.1 Auto parts & allied gds 1.19 123.5 124.8 120.91 125.5 124.9 126.3 128.0 125.4 129.5 125.2 128.9 133.4 134.4 130.1 Home goods 3.91 121.6 127.5 115.8 118.5 123.8 120.3 125.2 123.9 124.3 118.1 128.7 130.1 140.4 131.0 Appliances,1 & air-cond 1.24 141.51 154.5 123.71 140.0 145.0 131.5 146.6 143.5 134.5 130.7 146.6 144.5 178.0 156.4 Appliances and TV 1.19 157.2 124.51 137.4 144.3 128.3 141.1 142.2 132.1 132.1 149.9 146.8 179.6 Carpeting & furniture .96 130.7 134.8 127.41 123.8 133.7 135.1 134.7 133.7 139.4 128.4 140.5 143.5 144.4 Misc. home yoods 1.71 102.0 103.8 103.5 100.0 103.0 103.9 104.4 104.4 108.5 103.3 109.1 112.3 110.9 NONDURABLE CONSUMER GOODS 18.63 130.6 129.7 128.4 129.1 131.1 130.2 129.8 132.0 140.1 141.7 148.2 147.8 142.2 137.9 Clothing 3.34 99.41 99.7 95.8 94.7 100.1 101.1 100.4 99.7 104.5 99.0 106.3 106.4 103.7 Consumer staples 15.29 137. 136.3 135.51 136.6 137.9 136.5 136.3 139.1 147.9 151.0 157.4 156.8 150.6 145.7 Consumer foods & tobacco 7.80 136.3 136.8 132.31 132.0 134.2 134.2 133.2 137.2 144.7 143.5 150.6 151.7 149.2 Nonfood staples 7.49 138.5 135.7 138.91 141.4 141.8 138.9 139.4 141.1 151.3 158.9 104.4 162.1 152.0 149.0 Consumer chem. products 2.75 162.9 160.5 160.31 160.2 162.9 163.4 166.9 174.1 188.0 194.8 197.2 201.7 190.5 Consumer paper products 1.88 151.9 149.3 149.6) 147.5 151.1 152.8 155.2 157.4 165.8 172.4 182.0 181.1 171.1 Consumer eneryy 2.86 106.3 103.1 111.31 119.4 115.6 106.3 102.8 98.7 106.7 115.6 121.4 111.5 102.6 Consumer fuel 1.44 93.11 96.7 99.51 94.6 91.8 91.7 95.1, 95.0 95.9 96.5 97.5 94.3 94.8 Residential utilities 1.42 119.8 109.5 123.48 144.7 139.8 121.1 110.7 102.4 117.7 135.0 145.7 129.1 EQUIPMENT, TOTAL 19.25 148.9 152.0 151.31 151.5 154.2 155.0 153.5 156.0 161.1 158.0 162.8 165.3 162.6 160.5 BUSINESS & DEPENSE EQUIP. 18.01 153.6 156.0 155.31 155.9 159.2 160.0 158.5 161.2 166.5 163.3 168.1 170.8 168.0 165.9 BUSINESS EQUIPMENT 14.34 144.5 147.3 145.81 146.6 151.3 152.4 151.2 155.1 161.8 158.3 164.3 167.2 164.2 160.9 Constr, alling, & farm 2.09 62.21 65.3 66.91 65.1 69.1 68.9 70.1 71.1 73.3 73.4 73.5 76.5 74.5 74.2 Manufacturing equipment 3.27 117.9 119.1 120.51 121.2 124.9 127.7 125.9 126.4 132.5 132.2 136.6 140.1 138.4 137.3 Power equipment 1.27 82.61 84.2 85.91 85.0 87.0 86.3 84.3 85.9 90.5 89.0 90.8 95.5 94.7 94.0 Commercial equipment 5.22 226.5 230.3 228.51 229.1 234.7 233.8 232.6 240.7 251.6 255.7 263.8 260.8 252.1 245.4 Transit equipment 2.49 108. 111.5 102.21 106.7 112.8 118.0 115.7 118.9 122.8 95.1 105.8 119.4 124.3 121.7 DEFENSE c SPACE EQUIPMENT 3.67 188.9 189.8 192.8 192.5 190.1 189.9 186.9 185.4 184.6 182.7 183.1 184.9 182.7 185.3 INTERMEDIATE PRODUCTS 12.94 143.4 147.3 141.4 139.9 145.0 145.4 147.2 148.6 154.5 153.9 159.8 161.9 158.8 154.4 Construction supplies 5.95 131.5 135.0 128.61 128.5 132.9 135.0 138.3 140.3 143.1 138.3 141.9 144.3 144.2 141.0 Business supplies 6.99 153.5 157.8 152.31 149.7 155.2 154.3 154.8 155.7 164.2 167.3 175.1 176.9 171.2 Gen. business supplies 5.67 158.7 104.4 158.41 153.3 159.9 160.6 161.5 161.8 169.0 172.0 181.2 183.7 179.8 Commercial energy prod. 1.31 131.21 129.1 125.9 134.0 135.3 127.1 126.0 129.2 143.3 146.8 149.0 147.4 133.9 MATERIALS 42.28 118.2 121.9 120.5 121.5 124.8 124.6 124.0 123.7 126.0 122.8 126.8 127.3 127.7 127.4 DURABLE GOODS MATERIALS 20.50 125.0 129.3 128.31 127.5 132.5 133.8 133.9 135.8 137.3 133.0 136.5 139.5 140.3 139.1 Consumer durable parts 4.92 100.9 103.2 103.41 101.9 106.2 107.0 108.0 110.0 110.9 103.8 107.7 112.0 114.0 113.5 Equipment parts 5.94 159.0 104.4 167.61 166.7 167.1 168.1 167.4 169.4 172.9 171.0 173.4 175.1 174.4 176.3 Durabie sateriais nec 9.64 116.4 121.1 110.91 116.4 124.7 126.4 126.4 128.2 128.9 124.4 128.5 131.6 132.7 129.3 Basic metal materials 4.64 86.61 91.7 89.91 90.7 95.5 97.9 98.4 101.0 96.7 92.0 93.0 97.5 99.6 97.5 NONDURABLE GOODS MATERIALS 10.10 125.9 129.7 125.11 127.9 131.4 132.5 132.8 130.4 132.1 128.0 133.4 134.3 136.2 134.5 7.53 127.7 132.7 129.11 131.0 133.6 135.1 135.2 132.7 134.0 130.1 135.5 136.5 137.1 137.0 Textile Textile materials 1.52 112.0 115.4 101.21 110.1 113.2 114.3 111.3 110.8 110.1 96.3 116.8 111.3 112.5 Pulp c pa.er materials 1.55 141.01 144.3 141.81 149.1 149.3 150.3 146.8 145.5 147.1 144.9 149.5 147.7 148.9 Chemical materials 4.46 128.4 134.6 134.31 131.8 135.0 136.9 139.2 135.7 137.7 136.4 137.0 141.3 141.3 Misc. nondurable materials 2.57 120.5 120.9 113.21 118.9 124.9 125.0 125.9 123.5 126.4 122.1 127.2 127.8 ENERGY MATERIALS 11.69 99.8 102.1 102.71 105.5 105.5 101.8 98.9 96.8 100.9 100.5 104.3 99.7 98.4 100.9 Primary energy 7.57 105.0 107.6 107.51 109.1 108.9 107.6 106.3 103.0 105.2 103.0 106.6 105.1 104.8 Converted fuel materials 4.12 90.21 92.0 94.01 98.9 99.4 91.0 85.4 85.5 93.0 96.0 99.9 89.9 86.6 NOTE: Two components--oul and gas well drilling and manufactured homes--are included in total equipment but not shown here. They are shown in Tables 4A and 4B on page 8 and 9. Table 2A INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: INDUSTRY GROUPINGS Seasonally adjusted, 1977 = 100 1977) 1987 Major Industry Pro- Ann. 1987 1988 Groupings SIC por- Avg. NOV DEC JAN FEB HAR APR MAY JOB JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV Code tion MINING AND UTILITIES 15.79 104.3 107.9 107.31 107.8 106.8 106.7 107.1 106.0 106.8 108.1 109.0 107.0 106.7 107.3 MINING 9.83 100.7 104.6 104.61 103.3 101.5 102.7 104.7 102.6 103.0 104.3 103.8 103.5 102.6 103.2 113.5 114.0 UTILITIES 5.96 110.3 113.2 111.7 115.2 115.6 113.3 111.0 111.6 113.2 114.4 117.8 112.8 MANUFACTURING 184.21 134.7 137.9 138.91 139.4 139.5 140.0 140.8 141.8 142.1 143.6 144.0 144.4 145.3 146.0 NONDURABLE 35.11 136.81 139.6 141.31 141.4 141.1 141.7 142.3 142.1 142.6 144.6 145.1 145.3 146.2 146.8 DURABLE 49.10 133.11 136.7 137.31 137.9 138.4 138.8 139.7 141.5 141.7 142.9 143.2 143.8 144.7 145.4 MINING Metal aining 10 .501 77.6 90.4 96.51 91.5 83.9 84.9 86.9 86.0 82.2 94.0 96.6 99.1 Coal 11,121 1.601 131.61 142.9 140.61 140.2 133.7 129.1 136.0 127.8 126.9 141.5 137.2 142.2 138.5 145.6 Oil & yas extraction 131 7.071 92.71 94.2 94.11 93.1 92.4 94.8 95.5 94.6 95.8 93.3 93.2 91.7 91.1 141 .66 128.21 134.1 135.6 132.1 134.3 136.9 141.2 140.1 137.4 140.2 141.3 139.5 141.4 Stone i earth ainerals MONDURABLE MALUFACTURES Foods 201 7.96 137.8 138.9 140.11 141.2 141.9 141.1 140.3 141.0 141.3 143.3 143.3 143.2 144.3 Tobacco products 211 .621 103.51 106.5 110.51 105.8 107.0 107.2 107.2 107.2 104.5 100.6 105.1 103.0 Textile mill products 221 2.29 115.91 117.3 118.21 116.2 115.3 117.0 117.3 114.6 114.3 117.1 116.4 115.7 115.1 231 2.79) 107.41 109.4 107.81 108.7 108.5 108.7 109.2 108.6 109.3 109.4 108.9 109.6 Apparel products Paper & products 201 3.15 144.4 148.3 150.6 149.9 148.0 149.1 149.2 149.5 148.6 152.3 151.0 150.8 151.9 Printing E ublishing 27 4.54 172.1 175.7 176.9 177.5 178.7 180.4 181.8 180.7 182.3 184.9 186.7 188.7 189.3 189.2 Chemicals 8 products 281 8.05 140.21 144.4 147.9 147.9 145.4 146.4 148.9 149.1 150.5 153.4 154.8 155.5 156.5 Petroleum products 291 2.401 93.51 93.3 90.11 96.3 95.9 98.4 98.5 95.2 94.1 95.0 96.0 93.6 96.2 94.3 Rubber & plastics prod. 301 2.801 163.01 169.9 170.61 170.5 172.3 172.2 172.3 173.4 174.4 175.4 175.3 175.2 176.0 Leather & products 311 .53 60.0 60.7 57.51 58.3 59.7 59.5 58.0 57.1 58.9 59.1 59.4 59.5 59.8 DURABLE MANUFACTURES Lumber & products 24 2.30 130.3 134.0 133.6 136.3 139.0 137.8 138.0 139.8 136.4 136.6 133.8 133.5 136.9 Furniture s, fixtures 251 1.27 152.81 158.5 159.41 158.0 158.3 159.4 159.2 160.5 161.2 162.9 164.9 165.1 164.1 Clay, glass, stone prod. 321 2.72 119.1 120.5 120.11 120.4 121.6 122.5 121.4 121.5 123.4 122.2 122.6 122.8 122.6 Primary metals 331 5.33 81.31 90.2 90.6 86.5 86.4 85.1 85.3 89.2 87.5 91.5 90.8 93.0 94.3 94.8 lron & steel 331,21 3.49 70.01 79.7 81.91 77.8 77.4 74.2 74.5 78.6 74.2 80.2 78.9 81.4 83.7 Fabricated metal prod. 341 6.46 111.0) 113.6 115.81 117.1 117.6 118.8 118.8 119.8 120.4 121.7 122.1 122.6 122.9 124.3 Nonelectrical machinery 351 9.54 152.71 157.2 161.01 162.9 163.6 164.6 167.2 170.3 171.2 173.1 174.1 175.0 175.3 176.2 Electrical machinery 361 7.15 172.3 175.6 175.9 177.4 177.8 176.6 178.7 179.1 179.5 181.5 182.2 181.7 183.1 182.8 Transportation equip. 371 9.13 129.21 130.4 128.1) 128.6 128.4 130.0 130.4 133.1 132.8 131.9 131.8 132.6 134.3 135.4 Motor vehicles & pts. 3711 5.25 111.8 114.0 110.21 109.7 109.3 113.0 114.8 119.6 119.1 116.6 117.5 118.5 121.4 122.8 Aerospace c misc. 372-6,91 3.87 152.81 152.7 152.4 154.2 154.5 153.0 151.5 151.5 151.4 152.7 151.3 151.7 151.9 152.5 Instruments 381 2.66 143.9 147.8 145.5 148.2 149.2 149.7 150.5 151.3 153.0 156.4 156.8 158.0 159.1 159.6 Miscellaneous afrs. 391 1.46 102.5 104.5 105.61 105.0 104.4 105.1 105.9 106.0 107.6 107.8 108.3 108.5 107.9 UTILITIES Electric 4.17 126.6 127.5 125.6 130.3 130.7 129.0 127.6 129.7 132.1 134.6 138.8 131.9 132.4 Table 3A INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: PERCENT CHANGES Based on seasonally adjusted indexes 1987 1988 Series NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS NONTH TOTAL INDEX .5 .51 .4 .0 .2 .5 .5 .3 1.1 .3 .1 .5 .51 .1 .5 .7 .3 .7 .5 .0 .6 .21 Final products -0.1 .41 1.0 .3 .3 .31 1.1 .1 -0.1 .6 .6 .2 .9 .6 -0.1 1.2 .31 Consumer goods Durable consumer yoods -0.4 -2.91 1.2 -1.0 -0.2 2.4 1.9 -0.3 .0 .3 .5 2.2 -0.11 Nondurable consumer goods .5 1.41 1.1 .4 -0.1 .0 .2 .4 1.2 .7 -0.3 is .41 -0.2 1.01 .9 .8 .6 .8 1.5 .8 .8 .5 .4 .0 .41 Business equipment .7 .81 Construction Supplies .7 -0.31 2.3 .6 -0.3 .2 .9 -0.9 .6 -0.2 .4 Materials 1.1 1.01 -0.6 -0.7 .3 .8 .3 .4 1.6 .1 .0 .5 .71 Durable goods materials 1.1 1.41 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 1.1 1.6 .1 1.4 -0.1 .9 .7 .61 Nondurable goods materials 1.1 2.21 -1.9 -1.4 1.5 .8 -0.7 -0.1 2.1 .2 -0.3 .9 .71 .1 .6 .7 .2 1.1 .3 .3 .6 .51 Manufacturing .4 .71 .3 : Durable manufacturing -0.1 .41 .5 .4 .3 .6 1.3 .1 .9 .2 .4 .6 .51 Nondurable manuracturing 1.1 1.21 .1 -0.2 .5 .4 -0.2 .4 1.4 .3 .1 -6 : Mining and utilities 1.0 -0.61 .5 -0.9 -0.1 : -1.0 .8 1.2 .9 -1.8 -0.3 .51 CHANGE FROM SAME SOUTH a YEAR BARLIER TOTAL INDEX 6.0 5.61 6.5 5.8 5.7 6.3 6.2 5.7 5.7 5.5 5.8 5.1 5.11 4.8 4.31 5.9 5.0 5.0 5.9 5.9 5.7 5.2 5.4 5.8 5.2 5.51 Final products Consumer goods 3.6 2.51 4.6 3.9 3.5 5.1 4.2 4.5 4.1 4.3 5.6 5.7 5.71 Durable consumer goods 5.5 .71 2.5 -0.4 .5 5.6 4.5 6.7 4.1 3.7 6.5 3.8 4.11 Nondurable consumer goods 2.9 3.21 5.3 5.4 4.5 5.0 4.1 3.8 4.1 4.5 5.3 6.4 6.31 8.1 8.81 Business equipment 6.8 7.41 9.1 7.6 8.0 8.8 10.8 9.7 9.5 10.0 9.9 Construction Supplies 5.5 4.11 5.0 5.9 5.3 7.3 7.5 4.7 4.0 4.2 4.8 4.7 4.81 Materials 7.2 7.41 7.1 6.3 6.4 6.6 6.6 6.2 6.7 6.0 5.7 4.9 4.51 Durable goods materials 7.9 8.51 9.4 8.4 7.3 8.6 10.0 8.8 9.3 8.8 9.1 7.8 7.31 Nondurable goods materials 8.7 8.21 7.0 6.0 7.0 5.6 5.0 4.8 4.1 3.8 3.2 4.4 4.01 Hanufacturing 6.0 5.81 6.6 6.0 5.8 6.3 6.5 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.4 5.8 5.91 Durable manufacturing 6.0 5.81 6.7 5.9 5.6 6.7 7.7 7.4 7.0 7.0 7.6 5.8 6.41 Nondurable manufacturing 6.0 5.91 6.5 6.2 6.0 5.8 4.7 4.2 4.5 4.6 4.9 5.8 5.11 Mining and utilities 5.7 5.61 5.0 4.3 4.7 5.6 2.8 3.7 4.2 3.4 1.5 -0.1 -0.61 6 Table 2B INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: INDUSTRY GROUPINGS Not seasonally adjusted, 1977 = 100 1977 19871 Major Industry Pro-1 Ann. 1987 1988 Groupings SIC por- Avg. NOV DEC JAN FEB HAR APR BAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT BOY Code tion MINING AND UTILITIES 15.79 104.3 106.9 108.1 111.8 111.2 106.1 103.5 101.3 106.5 108.3 112.6 107.8 104.4 106.2 MINING 9.831 100.7 106.3 105.1 104.0 103.8 103.5 103.4 100.9 102.0 100.6 104.3 103.2 103.8 104.6 5.96 110.31 107.8 113.1 124.8 123.4 110.4 103.7 102.1 114.0 121.1 126.4 115.4 105.4 109.0 UTILITIES HANUFACTURING 84.21 134.7 137.5 134.0 134.4 138.5 139.4 139.6 141.3 145.5 141.5 147.2 149.7 149.1 145.7 NONDURABLE 35.11 136.81 139.1 135.01 134.2 138.4 139.2 139.8 140.7 146.4 145.1 151.7 152.9 151.0 146.2 DURABLE 49.10 133.1 136.3 133.3 134.6 138.6 139.5 139.4 141.6 144.8 138.9 144.0 147.4 147.7 145.4 MINING Metal miming 10 .50 77.6 84.8 83.51 83.7 85.5 87.6 92.4 94.8 90.4 93.8 96.3 97.7 Coal 11,121 1.60 131.81 140.3 129.01 133.3 138.6 137.7 136.2 126.1 131.9 128.1 147.5 145.3 143.0 142.3 oil & gas extraction 131 7.071 92.71 97.0 98.71 97.4 95.4 94.4 93.2 91.8 92.4 90.9 91.1 90.0 91.0 Stone & earth ainerals 14 .66 128.2 140.6 131.6 118.7 123.6 129.1 141.8 142.5 140.7 143.3 146.1 145.5 150.3 NONDURABLE MANUFACTURES Foods 20 7.96 137.8 139.1 135.9 133.7 135.0 135.2 134.7 138.8 145.4 146.1 151.5 152.8 151.1 Tobacco products 21 .62 103.51 108.3 88.01 102.2 113.8 109.6 104.0 102.5 112.8 87.0 113.4 107.1 Textile mill products 22 2.29 115.9 118.0 104.81 108.6 115.2 117.2 118.0 117.0 118.9 109.4 123.6 120.5 121.2 Apparel products 23 2.79 107.41 109.3 107.01 105.2 107.5 108.4 107.6 107.4 111.3 105.9 112.4 113.6 Paper & products 26 3.15 144.41 146.9 142.01 150.2 152.0 153.7 151.1 148.2 150.3 146.8 152.0 151.7 155.5 Printing & publissing 27 4.54 172.1 174.9 169.5 161.7 168.9 170.2 173.8 175.4 186.1 194.8 206.0 207.0 198.4 188.8 Chemicals & products 281 8.05 140.21 142.6 141.31 140.9 143.9 145.4 148.3 149.0 155.1 156.0 157.6 162.0 158.4 Petroleus products 291 2.40 93.51 95.4 96.71 91.7 89.8 92.2 94.7 95.6 98.2 99.4 100.9 97.2 96.7 96.1 Rubber & plastics prod. 301 2.80 163.61 167.9 160.9 161.1 178.6 175.9 173.8 173.0 178.4 166.2 177.9 181.0 182.1 Leather & products 311 .53 60.01 62.4 53.9 56.2 62.0 60.8 57.9 58.0 59.5 51.0 62.0 61.7 63.0 DURABLE BANUFACTURES Lumber & products 24 2.30 130.31 130.7 120.3 128.5 135.2 136.1 139.2 141.3 143.4 134.2 139.2 141.2 143.4 Purniture & fixtures 25 1.27 152.8 158.8 155.8 151.8 164.0 160.2 156.0 154.7 162.8 155.6 170.9 172.3 169.0 Clay, glass, stone prod. 321 2.72 119.1 120.7 113.9 112.1 114.7 120.1 121.7 123.8 127.5 123.4 127.6 127.8 128.2 Primary metals 33 5.33 81.3 85.6 83.7 84.7 90.0 91.7 92.3 94.8 90.6 85.4 85.9 90.5 92.8 91.2 Iron & steel 331,21 3.49 70.61 73.9 74.11 75.1 80.1 80.4 82.7 85.6 77.8 76.7 73.7 78.0 81.1 Fabricated metal prod. 341 6.46 111.0 114.1 114.51 113.0 117.8 119.0 118.4 119.3 122.6 119.4 122.3 125.5 125.2 125.0 Nonelectrical machinery 351 9.54 152.71 155.2 155.51 157.0 162.0 162.7 162.0 167.3 175.0 176.7 182.3 182.8 177.6 174.4 Electrical machinery 36 7.15 172.3 179.0 175.8 176.1 177.2 175.4 176.5 177.1 179.1 176.1 182.2 183.9 189.5 186.7 Transportation equip. 37 9.13 129.21 131.7 125.21 129.4 132.4 134.3 133.1 136.1 137.9 110.3 123.8 134.0 137.6 136.9 Botor vehicles & pts. 3711 5.25 111.81 114.6 101.61 109.6 116.3 120.3 119.7 125.3 128.7 93.2 106.2 120.9 127.0 123.5 Aerospace & aisc. 372-6,91 3.87 152.81 155.0 157.21 156.4 154.2 153.4 151.3 150.7 150.5 147.7 147.8 151.8 152.1 155.0 Instruments 381 2.66 143.91 147.2 144.7 144.6 146.6 148.1 147.9 148.8 155.8 158.5 161.0 162.7 160.3 158.8 Miscellameous afrs. 391 1.46 102.5 102.8 99.5 97.8 105.2 103.7 104.0 104.2 109.8 107.1 113.9 116.5 112.0 UTILITIES Electric 4.17 126.6 119.7 124.9 139.1 137.3 123.0 117.6 117.3 135.0 146.0 152.9 137.1 122.0 Table 3B INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: HISTORICAL DATA Seasonally adjusted, 1977 = 100 YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC QI or QIII QY ANNUAL INDEX 83.8 84.4 85.1 86.5 86.3 86.5 86.4 87.6 88.5 89.8 90.9 91.8 84.4 86.4 87.5 90.8 87.3 72 73 91.8 93.1 93.1 93.4 93.8 94.5 95.1 95.1 95.8 96.1 96.2 94.7 92.7 93.9 95.3 95.7 94.4 93.2 94.1 94.1 93.0 74 93.3 93.0 93.4 93.2 94.3 94.6 94.2 93.9 94.2 93.6 90.9 87.1 90.5 75 84.8 83.5 82.0 82.7 82.5 83.6 84.1 85.6 86.4 86.9 87.7 88.4 83.4 82.9 85.3 87.6 84.8 96.2 90.3 91.8 93.2 95.2 92.6 76 89.3 90.9 90.7 91.1 92.1 92.2 92.7 93.2 93.5 93.9 95.4 77 96.5 97.2 98.0 99.0 99.6 100.4 100.7 101.0 101.4 101.8 102.1 102.1 97.3 99.7 101.0 102.0 100.0 109.2 109.9 110.8 102.1 106.1 107.9 110.0 106.5 78 101.6 101.6 103.0 105.5 105.8 106.9 107.5 107.7 108.3 79 110.3 110.9 111.2 109.9 110.9 110.9 110.5 110.2 110.4 111.0 111.0 111.0 110.8 110.6 110.4 111.0 110.7 106.3 107.7 108.5 110.7 111.0 111.4 106.8 106.3 110.1 108.6 80 111.3 111.4 111.4 109.1 106.2 105.0 104.8 81 111.0 111.2 111.6 110.6 111.2 112.0 113.4 112.8 111.5 110.4 109.0 107.4 111.2 111.3 112.5 108.9 111.0 82 105.4 107.0 105.8 104.5 103.6 103.0 102.5 102.0 101.3 100.5 100.6 100.5 106.1 103.7 102.0 100.6 103.1 83 102.5 103.3 104.2 105.6 106.9 107.8 109.8 111.6 113.7 114.4 114.8 115.5 103.3 106.8 111.7 114.9 109.2 84 118.5 119.3 119.9 120.5 121.0 121.9 122.8 123.0 122.4 122.1 122.7 122.7 119.3 121.1 122.7 122.5 121.4 85 122.4 122.9 123.3 123.1 123.7 123.5 123.4 124.1 124.4 123.7 124.8 125.4 122.9 123.4 124.0 124.7 123.7 86 126.4 125.5 123.9 124.7 124.3 124.1 124.8 124.9 124.5 125.3 125.7 126.8 125.2 124.4 124.8 125.9 125.1 87 126.2 127.1 127.4 127.4 128.2 129.1 130.6 131.2 131.0 132.5 133.2 133.9 126.9 128.2 131.0 133.2 129.8 CHANGE* 2.2 0.7 0.8 1.6 -0.2 0.2 -0.1 1.4 1.0 1.5 1.2 1.0 3.8 2.4 1.3 3.8 9.7 72 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 -1.6 2.1 1.3 1.5 0.4 8.1 73 -1.5 -0.3 0.4 -0.2 1.2 0.3 -0.4 -0.3 0.3 -0.6 -2.9 -4.2 -2.6 1.0 0.0 -3.8 -1.5 74 -2.6 -1.5 -1.1 8.9 -0.2 1.3 0.6 1.8 0.9 0.6 0.9 0.8 -7.8 -0.6 2.9 2.7 -8.8 75 76 1.0 1.8 -0.2 0.4 1.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 1.6 0.8 3.1 1.7 1.5 2.1 9.2 0.3 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 2.2 2.5 1.3 1.0 8.0 77 78 -0.5 0.0 1.4 24 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.1 3.9 1.7 1.9 6.5 -0.5 0.5 0.3 -1.2 0.9 0.0 -0.4 -0.3 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.7 -0.2 -0.2 0.5 3.9 79 80 0.3 0.1 0.0 -2.1 -2.7 -1.1 -0.2 1.4 1.3 0.7 2.0 0.3 0.4 -8.1 -0.5 3.6 -1.9 -1.3 -1.5 1.0 0.1 1.1 -3.2 2.2 81 0.0 0.2 0.4 -0.9 0.5 0.7 1.2 -0.5 -1.2 -1.0 82 -1.9 1.5 -1.1 -1.2 -0.9 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.7 -0.8 0.1 -0.1 -2.6 -2.3 -1.6 -1.4 -7.1 1.6 0.6 0.3 0.6 2.7 3.4 4.6 2.9 5.9 83 2.0 0.8 8.9 1.3 1.2 0.8 1.9 1.9 84 2.6 0.7 8.5 0.5 9.4 0.7 9.7 9.2 -0.5 -0.2 0.5 0.0 3.8 1.5 1.3 -0.2 11.2 85 -0.2 0.4 0.3 -0.2 8.5 -0.2 -0.1 0.6 0.2 -0.6 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.9 86 e.s -0.7 -1.3 0.6 -0.3 -0.2 0.6 0.1 -0.3 0.6 0.3 0.9 0.4 -0.6 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.6 8.7 1.2 0.5 -0.2 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.0 2.2 1.7 3.8 87 -0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 *CHANGE IS THE PERCENT CHANGE FROM THE PRECEDING LIKE PERIOD. 7 Table 4A INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: INDUSTRY SUBTOTALS AND INDIVIDUAL SERIES Seasonally adjusted, 1977 = 100 1977 1987 Series Pro-1 Aun. 1987 1988 S1C por-1 Avg. OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAE APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT Code tion| 91.5 83.9 84.9 86.9 86.0 82.2 94.0 96.6 99.1 METAL MINING 10 .501 77.6 85.6 90.4 96.5 Iron ore 1011 .151 83.01 108.1 117.0 141.0 122.8 101.1 83.9 86.4 81.2 81.1 100.3 99.2 107.8 .351 75.11 77.1 80.4 78.21 81.0 77.3 81.8 85.9 89.3 86.7 94.7 96.6 95.4 Nonferrous ores 102-6,8,91 1021 .151 92.11 90.5 99.1 96.71 98.7 94.2 99.4 100.4 106.4 97.5 108.4 114.3 105.7 Copper ore 1031 .051 55.01 55.5 52.7 54.71 53.3 55.2 64.9 68.7 67.1 74.3 69.5 75.0 68.0 Lead and ZIDC ores 292.0 337.5 320.4 Gold and silver ores 1041 .021 273.2 278.4 281.41 290.7 272.2 260.1 289.3 305.4 Perroailoy ores 106 .041 55.61 52.8 52.9 41.61 58.9 51.2 64.9 80.3 83.4 85.4 92.9 87.0 59.61 67.3 81.0 70.9 83.1 80.1 71.1 63.9 76.4 74.9 66.7 ANTHRACITE 11 .021 66.01 42.6 03.3 BITUMINOUS 12 1.58 132.51 141.2 144.9 141.2 145.9 136.9 129.8 135.9 127.1 128.0 143.1 136.2 141.2 138.6 92.7 94.1 94.2 94.1 93.1 92.4 94.8 95.5 94.6 95.8 93.3 93.2 91.7 91.1 OIL AND GAS EXTRACTION 13 7.07 Crude oil & natural gas 131) 5.62 94.61 94.5 96.1 96.11 94.8 94.0 95.2 95.2 94.7 95.6 93.2 93.2 91.7 92.3 3.401 100.7 101.1 100.71 99.6 98.4 100.9 101.4 99.4 100.5 98.3 97.7 96.8 95.4 Crude oil, total 63.1 62.5 1.34 66.81 67.1 00.4 60.11 65.6 65.3 65.6 65.6 65.0 65.9 64.5 63.9 Texas crude Alaska,Calit.crude .57 205.8 213.9 216.51 210.4 207.2 214.5 219.6 210.8 212.5 206.4 207.3 205.2 202.4 89.4 88.5 88.0 89.0 87.7 86.3 85.7 84.3 La. and other crude 1.54 89.61 90.9 89.4 87.81 87.9 86.7 Natural gas 2.161 85.51 84.5 88.2 88.61 87.2 87.1 86.1 85.4 87.2 87.7 84.9 86.0 13. .47 98.71 99.9 98.7 99.21 94.7 96.0 100.3 100.9 101.8 101.0 99.8 100.9 102.2 Natural yas liquids .051 99.21 101.2 98.7 98.61 96.6 97.1 102.2 101.7 99.2 98.1 99.1 99.7 Propane .421 98.71 99.8 98.7 99.31 94.5 95.9 100.7 100.8 102.1 101.3 99.9 101.0 102.7 Liquefied petroleum 87.1 86.3 86.5 86.9 86.8 85.3 82.7 oil & gas well drilling 138 .991 79.1 94.7 91.3 86.61 85.6 84.6 88.1 FOODS 20 7.96 137.8 138.0 138.9 140.11 141.2 141.9 141.1 140.3 141.0 141.3 143.3 143.3 143.2 144.3 124.5 127.1 126.9 121.8 123.5 127.8 120.6 127.0 128.3 125.3 Meat products 2011 1.06 121.1 121.3 124.8 125.81 Beet .431 93.31 92.6 92.4 91.11 93.3 93.5 92.5 94.6 91.8 94.6 98.0 95.4 94.2 92.3 109.51 112.8 118.8 120.41 115.9 116.2 116.4 112.6 112.0 116.8 120.7 120.6 124.7 124.4 POCK .251 .201 166.4 165.6 172.5 179.11 170.1 180.3 180.1 166.9 173.6 174.3 161.8 167.0 173.8 161.4 Poultr, .18 153.7 152.8 157.8 157.21 153.8 163.6 165.2 149.6 160.3 171.3 164.4 167.8 164.8 165.7 Misc. meats 129.6 131.6 131.5 Dairy products 2021 .801 128.9 130.6 131.2 133.81 131.3 131.7 133.0 132.3 130.4 129.8 129.1 Butter 20211 .01 102.3 105.7 107.7 111.21 116.9 113.2 111.1 111.2 109.1 103.6 104.1 99.7 108.5 112.7 158.7 159.1 161.1 162.7 172.5 170.1 Cheese 20221 .131 158.4 162.2 100.5 162.61 158.3 164.0 165.1 160.6 Concentrated milk 20231 .11 120.5 129.1 133.4 142.61 133.8 136.1 138.5 137.3 129.5 130.6 114.2 118.7 126.1 118.6 147.3 150.4 153.6 154.2 156.5 157.5 154.4 147.9 152.1 Prozen desserts 20241 .09 149.1 147.4 149.9 155.01 148.5 Canned and Irozen food 2031 1.09 161.5 161.9 101.3 164.21 159.5 165.6 163.5 163.3 166.2 167.1 166.6 167.9 167.3 165.7 140.3 141.01 140.5 139.1 139.3 140.9 147.6 144.9 149.3 147.5 144.8 151.3 Grain mill products 2041 .941 135.8 135.7 Flour 20411 .12 132.7 139.6 141.5 129.61 125.8 113.6 114.3 126.3 134.9 129.3 147.2 132.1 128.4 145.9 1.00 133.2 133.2 132.0 135.51 139.0 136.6 138.5 134.2 130.4 138.8 138.0 140.7 141.9 142.9 Bakery products 205 2081 1.41 134.4 134.1 135.5 136.5 137.7 137.9 133.8 135.6 137.4 131.5 138.3 136.3 137.4 137.9 Beverages Beer and aie 2082,31 .38 114.61 117.3 115.7 115.71 124.1 118.0 112.0 115.4 114.7 109.7 116.1 111.5 211.7 213.6 224.7 Wine and brandy 20641 .07 196. 183.5 194.2 205.61 220.2 214.9 187.5 207.8 Soft drinks 2086,71 .791 148.4 149.0 150.6 148.81 147.2 151.8 150.5 147.9 153.4 147.5 153.5 155.0 152.6 155.0 96.61 87.2 83.7 80.3 92.4 80.7 69.1 79.6 77.1 Liquors 20851 .161 80.41 79.8 83.6 Fats and oils 2071 125. 122.6 128.1 127.9 131.2 126.5 131.6 131.8 129.8 132.5 138.1 129.4 128.3 124.5 .79 159.5 167.2 161.3 155.8 166.5 164.9 163.2 157.1 156.0 160.7 159.9 155.1 155.0 163.1 Coftee & aisc.foods 2091 TOBACCO PRODUCTS 21 .62 103.5 103.7 106.5 110.51 105.8 107.0 107.2 107.2 107.2 104.5 100.6 105.1 103.0 Cigarettes 211 .54 104.2 104.2 103.2 112.71 94.3 108.5 107.0 109.1 110.8 101.2 99.3 108.1 54.5 48.2 47.4 57.9 Cigars 212 .021 56.51 54.9 59.8 62.71 58.5 57.8 56.7 56.1 TEXTILE MILL PRODUCTS 22 2.29 115.9 116.8 117.3 118.2 116.2 115.3 117.0 117.3 114.6 114.3 117.1 116.4 115.7 115.1 105.6 107.8 105.0 102.2 104.1 102.7 105.4 104.4 100.0 Fabrics 221-4 .77 106.81 108.5 110.8 107.61 108.6 Cotton fabrics 2211 .281 129.5 130.9 135.7 128.5 128.0 128.0 130.0 123.3 119.5 120.3 114.1 121.2 120.5 95.3 96.5 94.51 95.9 90.6 93.7 93.2 90.6 93.4 94.6 94.7 92.8 87.9 Synthetic fabrics 2221 .40 93.3 Knit goods 2251 .55 110.6 113.9 108.0 114.11 111.2 114.9 116.6 119.0 112.4 112.5 116.9 118.4 119.5 119.7 Hosiery 2251,21 .12) 155.41 169.9 145.7 157.11 151.5 160.1 151.2 169.9 155.1 148.3 162.7 181.3 170.8 Knit garments 2253,4,7-91 E 97.81 97.9 97.2 101.81 99.6 102.0 106.7 104.4 100.2 102.2 103.8 100.4 104.8 105.5 227 .22 157. 158.8 100.6 159.4 162.8 158.0 146.2 152.2 162.1 158.2 160.5 164.2 149.1 160.0 Carpeting 125.0 117.6 120.1 Yarns & msc. text. 228,91 .55 127.8 124.0 129.8 130.51 129.9 125.6 126.7 126.2 121.1 116.8 126.6 APPAREL PRODUCTS 23 2.79 107.4 108.0 109.4 107.8 108.7 108.5 108.7 109.2 108.6 109.3 109.4 108.9 109.6 138.0 139.8 136.4 136.6 133.8 133.5 136.9 LOMBER AND PRODUCTS 24 2.30 130.3 129.8 134.0 133.6 136.3 139.0 137.8 Logging and Tumber 241,21 1.05 118.2 123.1 123.21 134.4 132.8 125.2 131.1 133.8 124.4 130.9 119.8 121.8 129.5 143.3 139.11 140.3 142.8 144.7 142.6 146.0 146.2 143.9 144.6 143.6 Lumber products 243-5,91 1.25 140.81 140.3 Millwork & plywood 2431 .671 175.7 173.5 179.1 172.01 175.3 181.2 182.7 177.4 181.7 181.7 178.0 178.8 175.5 2451 .25| 85.1 87.5 83.9 81.61 74.7 75.8 78.4 79.3 80.1 83.6 78.9 80.2 83.6 82.7 Manufactured homes FURNITURE AND FIXTURES 25 1.27 156.0 158.5 159.4 158.0 158.3 159.4 159.2 160.5 161.2 162.9 164.9 165.1 164.1 251 .74 125.0 124.6 125.3 125.5 123.6 129.2 126.9 127.5 129.8 129.2 131.1 132.1 131.8 Household furniture 216.7 217.9 217.3 214.6 Fixt.,office furn. 252,4,9 .47 207.0 216.4 215.21 208.2 211.2 212.0 212.7 212.7 215.0 PAPER AND PRODUCTS 26 3.15 146.0 148.3 150.61 149.9 148.0 149.1 149.2 149.5 148.6 152.3 151.0 150.8 151.9 133.1 132.8 133.2 134.1 131.9 141.4 136.6 135.0 136.1 Pulp and paper 261-3 1.33 131.3 133.4 144.01 137.6 Hood pulp 261 , 126.6 124.1 138.61 133.0 127.1 126.5 127.6 125.4 125.8 137.7 132.3 130.5 .44 135. 134.4 140.4 143.21 140.5 136.7 138.3 139.9 141.5 137.4 143.9 142.3 142.0 141.3 Paper 262 263 .44 132.9 135.7 150.21 139.3 135.6 133.6 131.9 135.2 132.4 142.7 135.1 132.4 136.6 Paperboard 1.03 173.0 180.2 185.81 178.7 176.4 179.6 176.7 179.4 180.6 187.7 186.5 187.7 182.5 Converted paper prod. 204 133.8 133.9 138.0 Paperboard containers 265 .75 131.6 135.4 134.91 134.6 134.6 135.0 137.4 135.0 132.9 138.5 Note: Seasonally adjusted industry totals are not aggregated from the seasonally adjusted components, but result from independent seasonal adjustment of the aggregated not seasonally adjusted components. Table 4B INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: INDUSTRY SUBTOTALS AND INDIVIDUAL SERIES Not seasonally adjusted, 1977 = 100 1977) 1987 Series Pro-1 Ann. 1987 1988 SIC por- Avg. OCT NOV DBC JAN FEB HAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT Code tion METAL MINING 10 .501 77.61 82.9 84.8 83.51 83.7 85.5 87.6 92.4 94.8 90.4 93.8 96.3 97.7 Iron ore 1011 .151 83.01 99.1 94.8 99.91 88.7 98.4 90.1 103.7 106.7 93.9 108.3 106.5 104.3 Nonterrous ores 102-6,8,91 .351 75.11 15.9 80.5 76.51 81.6 80.0 86.6 87.5 89.7 89.0 87.6 91.9 94.9 Copper ore 1021 .15 92.1 90.4 101.1 95.1/ 99.4 95.9 103.9 101.7 107.2 101.6 101.7 107.0 104.6 Lead and zinc ores 1031 .051 55.0 57.3 50.5 53.6 55.9 61.3 71.7 69.6 65.6 69.9 61.6 71.1 67.6 Gold and silver ores 104 236.3 264.3 269.0 257.9 279.3 274.1 275.4 298.7 304.4 316.0 329.1 319.8 Perroalloy ores 106 .04 55.6 53.1 54.6 42.61 57.5 54.6 70.5 82.6 84.9 84.7 76.0 83.5 ANTHRACITE 11 .02 66.0 49.6 09.9 59.7 57.8 72.0 68.4 70.3 74.9 71.5 65.2 86.9 79.6 77.7 BITUMINOUS 12 1.58 132.5 146.5 141.0 129.71 134.2 139.3 138.5 136.9 126.6 132.6 128.8 148.2 146.1 143.8 OIL AND GAS EXTRACTION 13 7.07 92.7 94.3 97.0 98.7 97.4 95.4 94.4 93.2 91.8 92.4 90.9 91.1 90.0 91.0 Crude 011 is natural gas 131 5.621 94.61 93.5 90.2 98.21 96.2 97.0 95.9 94.9 93.2 94.0 91.7 91.5 90.1 91.3 Crude oil, total 3.46 100.3 100.7 100.8 100.41 100.0 99.5 101.4 101.1 99.3 100.3 98.2 97.1 96.5 95.4 Texas crude 1.34 66.81 66.9 00.0 00.11 65.4 65.8 66.3 66.0 64.9 65.5 64.1 63.4 63.0 62.3 Ataska,Calif.crude .57 207.6 205.8 211.7 215.61 212.1 209.8 215.3 217.0 210.3 213.5 207.8 205.9 204.7 202.4 La. and other crude 1.541 89.6 91.1 89.3 87.41 88.5 87.9 89.5 88.5 87.9 88.5 87.2 85.9 85.4 84.5 Natural gas 2.16 85.5 81.9 88.9 94.7 95.2 93.0 87.2 85.0 83.5 83.8 81.3 82.5 Natural gas liyuids 132 .47 98.7 99.2 101.2 100.1 95.5 97.3 99.8 98.7 100.7 100.0 100.2 101.4 101.5 Propane .051 99.21 99.4 101.4 101.71 101.0 101.4 102.3 101.0 98.4 95.7 96.5 96.3 Liquefied etroleum .421 98.71 99.1 101.1 99.91 94.9 96.9 99.5 98.4 101.0 100.5 100.6 101.9 102.1 Oil & yas well drilling 138 .99 79.1 96.5 99.4 100.8 93.8 85.5 83.8 81.2 79.3 80.2 82.0 84.0 84.2 84.2 FOODS 20 7.96 137.8 145.1 139.1 135.9 133.7 135.0 135.2 134.7 138.8 145.4 146.1 151.5 152.8 151.1 Meat products 201 1.00 121.1 130.7 125.5 122.31 123.3 122.9 125.5 122.1 123.3 127.9 120.9 128.1 131.6 134.9 Beef .43 93.31 98.2 91.2 88.31 94.8 91.2 88.3 89.9 91.7 96.7 96.7 99.2 97.6 97.9 Pork .25 109.5 122.4 125.5 122.31 116.4 113.1 119.6 118.2 112.8 112.9 106.0 112.7 124.6 135.0 Poultry .20 166.4 181.7 107.3 163.11 165.7 169.3 171.3 168.1 176.4 183.6 163.9 177.8 179.7 177.0 Misc. aeats .18 153.7 163.6 161.4 158.4 154.2 161.4 172.4 153.7 154.6 161.4 152.0 164.0 169.7 177.4 Dairy products 202 .80 128.9 122.2 120.4 124.4 123.1 129.4 135.5 140.6 142.3 144.3 134.8 129.8 127.4 123.3 butter 2021 .01 102.31 96.9 101.0 115.3 139.8 134.1 122.7 125.2 118.4 100.6 85.1 78.2 91.1 103.4 Cheese 20221 .13 158.4 156.3 155.5 160.31 151.7 160.7 169.7 171.4 171.9 171.9 159.3 154.9 162.5 163.9 Concentrated mila 2023 -11, 120.5 109.7 109.7 131.61 127.3 135.6 141.8 156.8 152.4 156.2 124.2 113.6 109.9 100.8 Prozen desserts 2024 .09 149.1 131.5 120.5 114.9 110.2 130.2 151.4 158.0 172.6 199.9 194.4 183.6 159.4 135.7 Canned and frozen tood 203 1.09 161.5 185.0 160.3 151.0 143.4 154.7 153.4 149.1 156.1 167.0 170.0 186.0 199.0 189.3 Grain mill roducts 204 .94 135.8 137.9 139.4 140.61 139.5 137.6 135.6 136.7 143.8 146.1 149.0 153.5 150.5 153.7 Flour 2041 .121 132.7 143.3 143.0 123.61 122.8 121.8 115.3 122.5 132.2 128.9 135.7 136.9 134.1 149.7 Bakery products 205 1.00 133.2 137.0 129.4 127.7 128.0 125.5 127.6 126.6 132.0 146.4 151.0 156.7 157.9 147.0 Beverages 2081 1.41 134.4 135.7 129.7 122.7 124.7 127.0 126.7 133.8 139.1 144.6 149.4 149.9 146.8 139.6 Beer and ale 2082,3 .38 114.61 106.3 96.4 92.01 113.1 115.9 115.2 126.8 128.3 130.2 130.0 119.2 Wine and brandy 20841 .07 196.1 208.9 207.0 194.11 172.0 190.0 189.0 211.6 213.8 240.3 210.1 Soft drinks 2086,71 .79 148.4 151.9 147.4 139.01 135.7 137.5 136.7 139.1 150.1 157.1 169.6 174.3 170.6 158.0 Liquors 20851 .16 86.4 94.2 88.6 85.51 78.0 75.2 78.4 90.4 78.7 76.7 71.0 76.3 Fats and oils 207 .27 125.1 130.6 130.3 134.4 134.2 130.4 134.6 128.4 128.3 129.3 125.8 120.0 124.4 132.6 Coffee & alsc.toods 2091 .79 159.5 169.8 103.2 161.3 159.5 156.6 152.2 148.5 153.0 160.3 165.0 168.9 161.3 165.7 TOBACCO PRODUCTS 21 .02 103.5 116.4 108.3 88.0 102.2 113.8 109.6 104.0 102.5 112.8 87.0 113.4 107.1 Cigarettes 211 .54 104.2 115.6 100.7 85.21 99.6 113.4 112.2 104.5 102.7 113.4 86.1 113.6 Cigars 212 .021 56.51 63.5 60.0 46.5 57.7 58.7 57.4 55.8 57.3 51.7 38.7 62.0 TEXTILE MILL PRODUCTS 22 2.29 115.9 123.6 118.0 104.8 108.6 115.2 117.2 118.0 117.0 118.9 109.4 123.6 120.5 121.2 Fabrics 221-4 .77 106.8 115.6 112.3 94.11 108.3 110.2 110.7 106.4 105.6 104.8 89.4 108.9 106.5 106.4 Cotton fabrics 221 .28 129.5 140.4 137.0 110.41 128.5 133.4 133.6 125.8 124.7 119.8 98.0 127.3 122.4 Synthetic fabrics 222 .40 93.3 101.7 98.3 81.1 96.5 96.0 96.7 94.3 93.5 94.2 81.5 97.1 94.5 93.8 Knit goods 225 .55 110.6 117.6 105.6 100.6 94.6 109.8 113.0 117.3 113.6 124.3 122.3 128.7 129.5 123.7 Hosiery 2251,21 .12 155.4 170.6 141.0 134.71 147.7 164.5 158.2 180.8 155.6 158.5 175.8 171.3 163.5 Knit garments 2253,4,7-91 .43 97.8 102.5 95.5 90.9 79.4 94.2 100.1 99.2 101.6 114.6 107.0 116.5 119.8 110.5 Carpeting 227 .22 157.1 174.8 167.5 141.1 133.5 142.5 149.1 165.8 168.9 167.3 168.1 159.1 162.9 176.1 Yarns & EISC. text. 228,91 .55 127.8 131.0 129.2 116.6 123.9 127.0 128.2 126.0 126.5 122.0 109.6 135.2 123.0 126.8 APPAREL PRODUCTS 23 2.79 107.4 110.7 109.3 107.0 105.2 107.5 108.4 107.6 107.4 111.3 105.9 112.4 113.6 LUMBER AND PRODUCTS 24 2.30 130.3 137.0 130.7 120.3 128.5 135.2 136.1 139.2 141.3 143.4 134.2 139.2 141.2 143.4 Logging and lumber 241,21 1.05 117.8 125.7 119.2 109.41 122.7 130.0 127.1 133.0 132.4 134.3 125.5 125.7 130.5 137.8 Lumber products 243-5,91 1.25 140.81 146.5 140.2 129.41 133.2 139.6 143.7 144.3 148.8 151.1 141.4 150.4 149.2 Miliwork & plywood 2431 .67 175.7 181.4 176.4 163.21 169.3 174.9 179.1 177.2 184.2 186.4 176.9 186.0 182.7 Manufactured homes 245 .25 85.1 96.4 77.5 59.61 59.2 69.5 78.7 86.0 87.6 95.1 76.7 92.0 90.7 91.5 PURNITULE AND FIATURES 25 1.27 152.8 160.8 158.8 155.8 151.8 164.0 160.2 156.0 154.7 162.8 155.6 170.9 172.3 169.0 Household furniture 251 .74 123.1 128.1 125.2 123.41 120.9 131.1 130.9 125.7 123.5 131.3 116.7 135.0 137.8 135.1 Pixt. office furn. 252,4,9 .47 201.5 214.2 213.5 208.4] 201.6 219.0 208.8 205.0 204.4 213.0 217.0 229.0 228.0 222.0 PAPER AND PRODUCTS 26 3.15 144.4 148.7 146.9 142.0 150.2 152.0 153.7 151.1 148.2 150.3 146.8 152.0 151.7 155.5 Pulp and paper 261-3 1.33 132. 132.1 133.6 132.11 137.4 138.0 138.2 135.2 134.7 134.7 134.1 136.8 135.7 137.0 Wood pulp 261 .44 127.2 127.2 124.9 129.61 132.3 132.1 131.2 129.8 125.3 128.4 131.0 132.2 129.9 Paper 262 .44 135.3 136.6 140.7 134.51 141.6 142.7 143.7 141.0 140.2 139.5 136.0 141.2 141.9 143.6 Paperboard 263 .44 134.0 132.7 135.1 132.21 138.1 139.4 139.6 134.8 138.7 136.3 135.2 137.1 135.2 136.4 Converted paper prod. 264 1.03 171.7 176.0 179.5 174.3 180.5 183.5 187.3 181.4 179.3 182.6 176.1 185.0 184.6 185.7 Paperboard containers 265 .75 131.8 143.5 128.7 117.7 134.3 136.8 138.5 141.0 132.4 136.9 132.4 136.7 138.1 150.4 - Note: Seasonally adjusted industry totals are not aggregated from the seasonally adjusted components, but result from independent seasonal adjustment of the aggregated not seasonally adjusted components. 9 Table 4A-continued INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: INDUSTRY SUBTOTALS AND INDIVIDUAL SERIES Seasonally adjusted, 1977 = 100 1977 1987 Pro-1 Ann. 1987 1988 Series SIC por-1 Avg. OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB BAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT Code tion 176.9 177.5 178.7 180.4 181.8 180.7 182.3 184.9 186.7 188.7 189.3 PRINTING b PUBLISHING 271 4.54 172.1 175.2 175.7 Newspapers 2711 1.351 146.21 148.3 148.6 146.61 148.5 148.6 150.4 146.5 144.3 146.5 150.4 148.7 152.7 148.2 272,3,71 1.24) 160.51 160.0 159.5 169.11 165.1 164.5 170.2 173.6 171.6 174.5 174.3 177.6 180.1 181.5 Period., cards 1.95 197.4 202.2 204.0 202.91 203.9 209.6 208.5 212.5 213.6 211.9 215.6 218.0 219.7 221.5 Job printing 274-6,8,91 281 8.05 140.21 141.5 144.4 147.91 147.9 145.4 146.4 148.9 149.1 150.5 153.4 154.8 155.5 156.5 CHEBICALS & PRODUCTS 146.2 147.0 146.2 147.4 Chemicals & syn. mat.281,2,61 3.861 135.61 139.5 143.1 143.61 143.0 138.4 140.5 143.2 142.0 142.6 Basic chemicals 2811 .921 104.91 103.5 112.3 107.11 104.3 96.2 101.4 104.8 102.7 101.8 103.4 104.0 106.8 104.6 104.6 103.7 106.2 102.2 91.9 90.1 93.7 99.6 108.1 110.6 Alkalies & chlorine 28121 .121 103.41 105.2 114.8 108.51 Industrial Gases 28131 .101 150.31 157.0 157.3 164.71 156.5 155.0 153.4 151.4 157.5 153.8 159.7 157.7 159.9 28161 .081 100.51 99.3 111.4 97.61 107.1 101.4 104.2 103.5 112.5 99.1 102.1 107.1 100.4 95.6 Inorganic pigments 2819 .621 98.21 94.7 104.4 98.41 95.0 84.3 91.4 97.6 94.3 95.6 96.0 95.4 98.4 94.8 Inorganic chea, Bec .401 102.61 97.3 112.4 106.01 100.8 84.7 96.1 104.4 98.8 100.8 100.9 100.0 104.8 99.0 Acids & other ches. 192.8 199.6 201.8 192.8 197.9 Synthetic materials 2821 1.11 181.71 186.9 191.6 194.8 192.8 184.6 186.3 193.0 190.8 Plastics materials 2621) .59 252.51 261.0 267.7 277.31 273.7 257.8 262.1 271.3 267.5 269.2 278.9 288.5 274.2 97.9 106.3) 93.0 94.1 96.2 96.5 104.7 101.4 97.3 104.7 101.9 Syathetic rubber 28221 .081 92.71 95.0 Syathetic fibers 2823,41 .441 104.31 105.5 108.0 101.7 103.8 104.3 102.5 107.0 104.9 108.4 113.4 104.7 101.6 108.7 2861 1.83 122.9 128.9 129.0 130.7 132.2 131.5 132.3 132.3 132.1 132.6 135.1 135.4 137.7 138.2 Indust. organic ches. Chemical products 283-5,9 3.65 152.11 151.0 153.2 157.31 160.0 159.7 159.1 163.9 165.9 160.9 169.3 170.8 170.6 172.6 Drugs & medicines 1.41 138.31 133.7 134.0 142.71 146.6 149.2 144.3 153.6 150.4 150.6 152.9 155.0 153.4 153.2 283 211.3 213.7 215.2 216.3 217.0 219.7 Soap & toiletries 2841 1.34 188.91 187.3 192.6 195.5 196.7 193.2 197.7 200.6 Paints 285 .40 100.51 107.9 100.5 104.7 110.6 106.1 103.2 105.3 102.8 100.7 105.9 106.5 107.2 116.3 99.51 102.1 101.6 99.9 100.2 99.6 94.1 101.6 103.1 96.9 100.4 Agricultural chemicals 2871 .54 92.4 94.7 96.6 PETROLEUM PRODUCTS 291 2.40 93.51 94.6 93.3 96.1 90.3 95.9 98.4 98.5 95.2 94.1 95.0 96.0 93.6 96.2 291,9 2.21/ 92.01 93.5 92.4 95.01 94.3 93.0 96.2 96.4 93.1 92.3 93.7 95.1 92.2 94.9 Petroleum refining .961 97.21 97.3 97.3 97.51 96.6 99.3 98.8 101.2 96.7 95.9 99.4 100.2 97.2 101.3 Automotive gasoline .43 83.21 83.9 87.2 91.81 91.8 84.5 89.1 91.9 89.6 88.0 85.0 86.8 83.6 85.2 Distillate fuel oil 51.1 55.8 58.1 52.8 51.3 52.3 Residual ruel oil .15 50.51 52.3 49.9 50.01 52.6 53.1 54.7 52.9 Aviation fuel & xeros. .18 122.2 129.5 125.0 129.8 124.5 123.7 129.3 121.0 123.1 123.9 123.8 123.9 125.2 121.5 91.51 94.4 88.7 94.11 94.1 89.4 98.4 95.8 91.2 89.0 90.6 95.3 90.7 Misc. petroleum prod. .48 Befinery fuel, aec .09 126.21 126.6 128.6 131.41 138.1 135.2 140.2 139.3 135.1 129.6 133.7 133.1 Refinery nonfuel mat. .261 74.41 77.1 72.4 77.11 76.6 65.6 73.9 77.6 68.4 67.3 69.2 77.6 102.5 99.0 105.4 118.2 102.5 106.6 104.3 103.5 104.7 Befinery products, nec .131 101.8 106.6 94.1 RUBBER & PLASTICS PROD. 30 2.80 163.61 166.7 169.9 170.61 170.5 172.3 172.2 172.3 173.4 174.4 175.4 175.3 175.2 176.0 301 .621 119.3 123.9 125.3 122.51 122.7 122.9 122.4 122.0 126.2 128.0 129.0 124.1 124.9 Tires 139.7 Rub.prod.ex.tires 302-4,6 .51 126.0 124.0 127.9 135.41 134.5 137.0 135.8 137.8 136.7 139.8 139.7 140.2 139.6 Plastics products, Dec 3071 1.67 191.7 195.5 199.7 199.51 198.6 203.5 201.1 200.5 202.0 203.4 203.7 205.3 203.7 205.4 57.1 58.9 59.1 59.4 59.5 59.8 LEATHER AND PRODUCTS 311 .53 60.0 59.6 60.7 57.5 58.3 59.7 59.5 58.0 Pers. leather gds 313,5-7,91 .161 77.3 79.0 79.0 77.11 77.9 76.2 77.2 75.7 77.1 75.3 77.1 78.7 77.7 78.1 51.2 45.91 46.5 52.4 50.3 48.9 47.3 49.7 48.5 50.4 50.5 50.2 Shoes 3141 .291 51.41 50.2 CLAY,GLASS is STONE PROD. 321 2.72 119.11 118.9 120.5 120.11 120.4 121.6 122.5 121.4 121.5 123.4 122.2 122.6 122.8 122.6 3221 .51 109.0 106.5 101.8 109.11 105.7 104.4 107.4 109.8 109.8 107.7 109.5 108.1 108.3 106.9 Pressed & blown glass Glass containers 32211 .301 95.5 93.3 84.3 97.21 90.5 86.9 93.0 95.6 95.6 92.5 95.7 91.9 91.3 90.0 324 .24 103.31 107.1 104.6 104.71 96.8 87.4 107.4 100.8 104.6 105.5 98.0 98.8 102.9 Cement 141.1 140.6 135.8 141.1 138.2 134.6 Structural clay prod. 3251 .15 135.81 140.3 135.8 136.91 136.2 146.4 142.3 142.2 Brick 32511 .071 99.51 99.8 101.2 105.51 100.5 109.0 110.2 103.7 100.2 102.7 99.7 103.0 97.8 94.7 39.71 39.4 43.1 37.4 34.6 37.1 34.8 35.1 39.4 37.2 39.1 Clay sever pipe 32591 .021 35.61 37.4 38.8 Clay tile 3253,51 .07 199.61 209.1 197.1 195.01 198.5 212.2 203.2 207.7 213.2 207.5 199.6 207.2 206.4 200.7 326-9 1.55 121.6 121.1 123.9 123.11 125.0 125.4 127.0 123.7 124.4 126.7 126.0 125.8 127.5 125.4 Concrete and aisc. PRIMARY METALS 33 5.331 81.31 90.6 90.2 90.6 86.5 86.4 85.1 85.3 89.2 87.5 91.5 90.8 93.0 94.3 Iron and steel 331,21 3.491 70.61 82.0 79.7 81.91 77.8 77.4 74.2 74.5 78.6 74.2 80.2 78.9 81.4 83.7 91.2 85.6 89.4 91.7 Basic st. & aill prod. 3311 2.601 75.41 87.2 85.5 87.01 83.1 83.9 80.3 80.8 84.8 80.4 Basic iron and steel 1.11/ 64.31 73.4 74.2 74.01 73.7 70.4 70.8 68.1 71.3 70.1 76.2 77.5 79.4 75.7 71.0 65.8 65.1 62.4 64.1 63.8 69.4 69.7 75.2 73.0 Pig iron .421 59.51 69.2 69.6 71.71 Raw steel .51 70.91 78.9 80.2 79.41 80.1 76.1 76.8 74.0 79.6 11.7 84.4 87.0 86.5 80.6 Steel mill products 1.49 83.71 97.4 94.0 96.7 90.2 93.9 87.3 90.2 94.8 88.0 102.4 91.6 96.8 103.6 70.9 Consumer dur. steel .38 54.21 59.3 56.6 56.21 49.1 57.3 55.3 57.8 63.6 58.8 61.7 60.7 63.6 Equipment steel .361 43.11 52.3 51.4 53.51 52.2 50.6 49.4 50.3 50.3 49.6 53.4 45.4 48.9 53.7 Construction steel .191 73.71 90.7 84.1 88.11 81.0 80.1 73.8 73.9 76.0 65.4 79.0 70.5 78.4 84.2 Can & closure steel .10 63.21 64.4 60.1 89.41 56.4 55.9 57.2 69.3 67.9 61.9 69.5 60.5 64.2 74.2 .46 147.8 173.6 169.0 168.61 164.4 171.3 155.1 158.9 168.3 156.7 190.4 168.0 175.8 183.4 Misc. steel Iron & steel founories 3321 .89 56.4 65.8 58.0 61.81 57.9 56.4 59.4 58.3 64.6 54.3 53.6 55.6 57.6 64.6 333-6,9 1.85 101.6 106.9 110.0 107.01 103.0 103.5 105.7 105.6 109.1 112.7 112.7 113.3 115.0 114.2 Nonferrous metals 99.1 97.2 99.0 98.9 Primary nonf. metals 3331 .511 84.21 90.2 91.1 91.71 90.0 91.3 94.0 90.3 92.5 93.6 Copper 3331 .13 93.01 105.3 99.6 105.51 103.4 103.0 106.8 93.2 99.5 94.3 104.8 121.5 120.2 100.6 92.3 93.9 94.6 94.4 95.4 97.1 97.2 97.4 97.3 Aluminum 3334 .281 81.21 86.4 89.1 89.81 91.2 Secondary nonf. atls. 334 .11 75.3 75.6 76.5 80.61 81.1 78.1 81.4 74.2 74.8 77.5 86.4 77.6 76.9 1.12 111.8 117.3 120.7 119.71 110.8 111.4 113.3 115.1 119.4 123.1 120.8 124.0 124.8 122.7 Bonferrous products 335,6 Nonf. mill products 3351 .84 102.7 105.2 112.5 111.8 102.0 101.6 103.1 102.6 104.7 110.1 108.9 112.3 109.3 106.0 3351 .14 103.8 122.3 146.0 116.31 105.0 102.5 94.9 96.2 96.0 110.0 98.2 118.7 103.2 104.4 Copper mill prod. 126.8 124.2 113.1 Alum. mill prod. 3353-5 .32 116.6 113.8 120.7 132.3) 111.8 112.4 118.4 115.5 117.4 124.6 129.6 Construction .091 119.01 110.7 119.1 116.71 112.0 117.3 123.9 120.6 125.1 125.8 122.5 134.6 123.8 111.7 110.4 116.3 113.5 114.4 124.2 132.4 123.8 124.4 113.6 Bisc. alus. mats. .23 115.71 115.0 121.3 138.5 111.8 Nonferrous foundries 336 .28 139.21 153.8 145.5 143.81 137.3 140.9 144.0 152.9 163.7 162.0 156.5 159.1 171.5 173.2 Note: Seasonally adjusted industry totals are not aggregated from the seasonally adjusted components, but result from independent seasonal adjustment of the aggregated not seasonally adjusted components. 10 Table 4B-continued INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: INDUSTRY SUBTOTALS AND INDIVIDUAL SERIES Not seasonally adjusted, 1977 = 100 1977 1987 Pro- Ann. 1987 1988 Series SIC por- Avg. OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB BAR APR BAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT Code tion 169.5 161.7 168.9 170.2 173.8 175.4 186.1 194.8 206.0 207.0 198.4 PRINTING & PUBLISHING 27 4.54 172.1 183.7 174.9 Newspapers 2711 1.35 146.21 159.4 162.8 148.71 133.6 145.6 150.4 150.1 148.3 146.4 137.3 142.2 154.5 159.2 272,3,71 1.24 160.5 163.1 154.5 157.91 152.7 156.6 158.6 163.4 165.5 178.3 189.2 202.5 200.9 185.0 Period., books,cards Job printing 274-6,8,91 1.95 197.4 213.7 196.3 191.31 186.8 192.8 191.4 196.8 200.5 218.5 238.3 252.5 247.3 234.0 CHESICALS & PRODUCTS 281 8.05 140.2 143.8 142.6 141.31 140.9 143.9 145.4 148.3 149.0 155.1 156.0 157.6 162.0 158.4 143.0 143.6 148.5 148.2 Chemicals & syn. mat.281,2,61 3.86 135.6 140.3 142.1 141.11 138.5 141.5 143.0 145.2 142.4 144.9 Basic chemicals 2811 .921 104.9 105.5 109.9 103.6) 99.9 101.6 103.0 105.0 102.3 105.0 100.9 100.9 108.5 106.6 105.7 107.0 106.2 94.0 94.6 94.0 96.8 109.9 108.0 Alkalies & chlorine 28121 .12 103.41 102.7 109.6 107.61 98.3 Industrial Gases 28131 .10 150.3 155.0 158.7 160.01 153.3 159.5 157.4 155.7 158.7 154.7 153.6 155.6 161.1 28161 100.5 95.3 106.0 96.01 100.3 105.1 103.9 109.2 109.1 110.6 101.7 99.7 107.2 91.7 Inorganic pigments .081 Inorganic ches, Dec 28191 .621 98.21 99.0 102.3 94.41 91.1 90.7 93.0 95.7 93.5 97.9 93.3 92.6 99.6 99.2 Acids & other cher. .401 102.61 104.0 109.4 99.71 94.8 95.1 98.3 101.2 97.1 104.1 96.9 95.9 106.9 106.0 191.2 194.3 198.7 198.8 Synthetic materials 282 1.11 181.7 187.7 188.8 187.21 182.0 192.1 194.4 200.1 192.7 196.7 Plastics materials 2821 .59 252.51 263.2 204.7 263.41 254.2 267.1 276.0 281.6 270.3 275.7 267.9 278.1 283.9 93.51 94.4 98.1 103.0 103.2 105.5 101.8 92.6 100.1 102.8 Synthetic rubber 28221 .081 92.71 95.4 96.0 Synthetic fibers 2823,4 .441 104.31 104.6 105.3 103.31 102.3 109.8 103.1 110.0 105.7 109.6 107.4 100.4 103.5 107.8 280 1.83 122.9 128.9 129.9 131.9 131.5 130.7 131.9 132.0 132.0 133.5 134.9 134.2 138.1 138.3 Indust. oryanic ches. Chemical products 283-5,9 3.65 152.1 154.4 149.7 147.91 149.9 152.9 154.1 157.8 103.0 174.7 178.4 181.4 184.5 176.6 2831 1.41 138.31 138.3 131.2 133.81 133.8 136.1 135.1 145.6 144.9 161.4 169.0 169.0 170.0 158.5 Drugs & medicines 216.0 227.0 235.2 226.0 Soap & toiletries 284 1.34 188.91 192.7 191.5 188.21 188.1 191.2 193.4 189.4 204.9 222.0 Paints 2851 .40 100.51 103.7 88.9 74.11 91.0 99.8 106.4 117.4 118.1 123.3 112.2 117.0 111.1 112.3 100.8 102.5 106.1 101.6 94.4 96.1 97.7 99.3 102.3 Agricultural chemicals 2871 .54 92.41 96.5 97.3 98.71 97.7 PETROLEUM PRODUCTS 291 2.40 93.51 95.1 95.4 96.71 91.7 89.8 92.2 94.7 95.6 98.2 99.4 100.9 97.2 96.7 92.01 92.4 93.1 95.41 91.8 89.8 91.7 93.6 93.3 95.9 96.9 98.3 94.4 93.7 Petroleum refining 291,91 2.21 Automotive gasoline .90 97.21 94.7 98.3 99.81 95.6 95.8 95.2 98.2 97.4 99.3 101.8 102.4 98.5 98.6 Distillate fuel oil .431 83.21 84.6 92.7 98.71 91.6 81.7 82.9 87.4 89.3 88.1 84.8 86.6 84.7 86.0 52.1 49.3 49.0 50.6 Residual fuel 011 .151 50.51 50.5 52.8 57.21 57.6 56.9 53.9 54.3 49.4 50.3 Aviation fuel & keros. .18 122.21 131.0 128.5 132.5 130.1 128.2 130.3 115.2 115.5 120.2 123.3 123.1 125.2 122.9 Misc. petroleum prod. .48 91.51 93.8 82.6 82.21 81.2 81.3 90.3 94.5 94.6 101.6 102.5 107.1 98.2 Refinery fuel, Dec .09 126.21 122.2 125.1 130.81 132.7 131.0 134.4 134.2 137.2 137.5 139.5 141.2 Refinery nonfuel Bat. .261 74.41 71.5 65.5 70.11 70.8 67.2 75.7 79.8 69.8 75.0 75.6 79.3 75.7 89.6 96.7 114.5 129.4 130.3 138.8 Refinery products, mec .13 101.81 118.3 87.4 73.41 67.4 RUBBER & PLASTICS PROD. 30 2.80 163.6 172.4 167.9 160.91 161.1 178.6 175.9 173.8 173.0 178.4 166.2 177.9 181.0 182.1 3011 .621 119.31 131.7 119.9 110.31 124.2 132.3 131.9 127.5 123.0 127.4 109.6 124.1 129.6 Tires 302-4.61 .51 126.0 126.6 128.4 130.71 127.9 140.1 139.6 138.2 139.3 142.7 131.9 140.7 141.9 142.6 Rub. tires 3071 1.67 191.71 201.5 198.9 189.91 185.0 207.6 203.3 201.9 201.8 208.2 197.5 209.2 212.0 211.7 Plastics products, Lec 51.0 62.0 61.7 63.0 LEATHER AND PRODUCTS 31 .53 60.01 62.8 62.4 53.9 56.2 62.0 60.8 57.9 58.0 59.5 Pers. leather gds 313,5-7,91 .161 77.31 83.5 83.2 77.81 74.3 73.8 76.0 74.2 75.7 76.7 72.1 80.0 80.9 82.5 45.3 56.2 53.2 49.1 48.8 50.1 40.0 53.2 51.4 53.3 Shoes 3141 .291 51.41 53.3 52.1 40.11 GLASS & STONE PROD. 321 2.72 119.1 124.6 120.7 113.9 112.1 114.7 120.1 121.7 123.8 127.5 123.4 127.6 127.8 128.2 .51 109.01 111.3 100.7 92.71 98.0 106.3 109.0 111.9 110.5 112.5 111.6 113.2 110.3 111.6 Pressed & blown glass 3221 32211 .30 95.51 98.8 80.6 72.71 83.7 92.4 95.1 100.0 97.1 99.4 98.8 97.8 90.4 95.4 Glass containers 3241 .24 103.3 126.6 103.3 76.51 55.4 58.7 90.3 105.4 117.2 129.5 115.6 123.0 123.0 Cement 124.9 146.0 145.6 139.8 Structural clay prod. 3251 .15 135.81 145.8 139.5 130.91 129.5 141.3 140.4 142.2 142.7 148.0 Brick 32511 .071 99.51 108.2 100.7 98.31 87.5 97.0 103.6 106.0 104.7 109.7 100.5 109.7 105.7 102.6 33.5 35.8 36.6 37.8 38.6 41.1 40.9 41.7 41.9 Clay sever pipe 32591 .02 35.61 40.1 38.1 33.91 33.1 Clay tile 3253,51 .07 199.61 212.4 200.2 190.11 198.2 215.3 205.9 207.5 209.5 216.2 172.3 211.1 214.1 203.9 121.61 125.5 126.2 121.6 120.7 120.9 124.1 123.3 125.1 127.9 125.3 128.8 129.4 129.9 Concrete and misc. 320-91 1.55 PRIMARY METALS 331 5.33 81.31 88.7 85.6 83.71 84.7 90.0 91.7 92.3 94.8 90.6 85.4 85.9 90.5 92.8 Iron and steel 331,21 3.49 70.61 78.7 73.9 74.11 75.1 80.1 80.4 82.7 85.6 77.8 76.7 73.7 78.0 81.1 85.1 85.9 Basic st. & mill prod. 3311 2.60 75.41 81.6 80.0 81.91 82.2 87.6 86.6 88.9 91.4 84.5 86.2 80.2 Basic iron and steel 1.11) 64.31 69.6 70.2 68.91 72.4 74.2 76.3 75.5 77.0 72.7 73.5 71.3 74.3 71.8 70.2 70.4 71.4 67.3 69.0 66.4 69.1 67.3 .421 59.51 63.9 65.1 04.41 67.9 68.8 Pig iron Raw steel .511 70.9 76.6 76.8 75.61 79.7 81.3 84.2 82.1 84.3 79.1 79.1 77.3 81.4 78.2 1.49 83.7 90.6 87.3 91.6) 89.5 97.5 94.1 98.8 102.0 93.2 95.5 86.8 93.1 96.4 Steel mill products .381 54.21 57.4 53.8 50.21 53.1 60.4 57.6 62.2 68.0 61.5 54.2 56.6 63.6 68.6 Consumer dur. steel .361 43.11 49.0 47.9 49.11 49.6 54.0 53.5 55.7 54.4 51.4 48.5 45.2 48.1 50.2 Equipment steel 79.0 74.6 80.0 70.3 77.6 78.6 Construction steel .191 73.71 84.6 78.8 79.51 75.2 77.9 75.7 82.7 Can & closure steel .101 63.21 57.7 55.7 84.11 57.5 56.0 58.9 70.2 69.5 67.0 71.5 63.3 63.7 66.4 159.8 155.6 165.31 163.1 178.4 170.7 176.6 181.7 165.0 177.5 155.7 164.9 168.7 Misc. steel .461 147.81 Iron & steel foundries 3321 .891 56.4 70.0 55.9 50.91 54.1 58.1 62.3 64.4 68.7 58.3 48.9 54.9 57.1 68.8 Nonferrous metals 333-0,91 1.85 101.6 107.6 107.8 101.91 102.7 108.6 112.9 110.4 112.1 114.6 101.7 108.8 114.0 114.9 92.2 98.3 Primary nouf. retals 3331 .511 84.21 89.6 91.0 91.21 91.1 94.6 97.3 94.3 95.7 93.7 91.5 95.0 Copper 33311 .131 93.01 103.8 100.9 101.91 103.6 105.9 112.3 102.8 107.5 100.0 96.3 107.9 107.9 99.2 95.6 96.0 95.5 95.4 95.1 96.5 97.1 Aluminum 33341 .281 81.21 86.2 88.9 90.31 91.4 93.1 94.4 Secondary nonf. atls. 3341 .111 75.31 79.8 78.4 74.51 75.6 83.9 84.2 76.9 74.1 78.1 75.8 76.4 81.1 118.2 118.0 109.21 110.2 116.8 122.1 120.5 123.1 127.2 108.3 119.1 125.1 123.7 Nonferrous products 335,61 1.12 111.81 Nonf. mill products 3351 .841 102.71 106.0 108.1 105.21 99.7 103.2 108.8 106.3 108.2 112.7 102.8 109.6 111.2 106.8 33511 .141 103.81 122.7 133.6 105.31 102.2 105.0 106.5 104.3 104.9 111.0 83.3 109.0 114.0 104.7 Copper mill prod. 114.8 Alum. mili. prod. 3353-51 .321 116.61 115.5 113.1 116.9 106.1 115.5 126.4 121.0 124.0 131.6 125.0 126.7 123.4 .091 119.01 117.0 117.1 99.31 106.3 120.4 126.7 126.4 126.5 132.7 118.1 136.8 125.8 118.0 Construction 118.9 123.0 131.2 127.7 122.7 122.4 113.6 Misc. alum. Bats. .23 115.71 114.9 111.5 123.81 106.0 113.5 126.4 Nonferrous foundries 3361 .28] 139.21 155.0 147.8 121.51 141.9 157.5 162.4 163.2 168.1 170.8 125.1 147.9 166.7 174.5 Note: Seasonally adjusted industry totals are not aggregated from the seasonally adjusted components, but result from independent seasonal adjustment of the aggregated not seasonally adjusted components. 11 Table 4A-continued INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: INDUSTRY SUBTOTALS AND INDIVIDUAL SERIES Seasonally adjusted, 1977 = 100 1977 1987 Series Pro- Ann. 1987 1988 SIC por- Avg. OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT Code tion FABRICATED BETAL PRODUCTS 341 6.46 111.0 113.5 113.6 115.8 117.1 117.6 118.8 118.8 119.8 120.4 121.7 122.1 122.6 122.9 91.7 96.5 98.1 98.6 95.8 99.6 97.6 98.9 100.6 99.5 101.5 Metal containers 3411 .521 91.7 91.7 96.4 Bardware,tools,cutler) 3421 .731 103.5 103.3 102.8 106.2 105.8 107.5 109.0 109.8 112.8 112.4 113.4 113.2 114.3 114.6 Structural metal prod. 344 1.67 109.5 110.1 111.5 111.4 113.7 112.1 113.1 114.9 115.4 115.7 116.7 115.4 116.0 117.3 1.95 11b.7 122.4 119.8 123.4 126.7 128.1 128.2 128.8 129.0 130.8 131.8 131.6 131.9 133.1 Fasteners, stamp, etc. 345-7 NONELECTRICAL MACHINERY 351 9.54 152.7 158.0 157.2 161.0 162.9 163.6 164.6 167.2 170.3 171.2 173.1 174.1 175.0 175.3 351,21 1.481 64.31 68.5 69.7 69.7 71.3 70.7 70.3 73.4 72.9 73.2 74.7 74.4 75.1 76.0 Engine & fara equip. Construct. L allied eg. 353 1.68 73.91 77.2 77.6 77.9 76.9 77.3 79.7 81.2 83.2 84.2 86.3 86.0 87.4 87.4 154.6 155.5 156.0 Metalworkin, machinery 354 1.24 135.9) 136.8 136.7 147.41 142.5 142.8 144.7 144.4 144.2 150.4 153.5 Spec. & genl. ind. ey. 355,61 2.12 102.21 105.9 104.7 107.0 109.8 108.0 111.2 111.5 112.6 114.2 116.0 116.0 117.0 118.5 Office, serv, & aisc. 357-91 3.02 282.61 291.7 287.2 302.0 303.6 307.5 304.9 309.6 318.0 317.3 316.6 320.0 321.4 319.0 178.7 179.1 179.5 181.5 182.2 181.7 183.1 ELECTRICAL MACHINERY It 7.15 172.3 175.5 175.6 175.9 177.4 177.8 176.6 Major elect. ey.8 its 361,21 1.27 97.21 97.3 97.6 100.4 99.0 103.0 102.9 101.6 101.9 104.8 106.0 106.9 105.4 105.0 Household appliances 3631 .75 134.5 135.7 143.1 132.51 139.0 135.8 126.8 133.8 136.9 123.5 135.4 142.1 129.2 150.3 208.3 237.0 219.3 206.0 209.4 195.3 164.2 219.1 222.4 203.4 254.4 Cooking equipment 36311 .11 228.8 242.5 243.3 Refrigeration appl. 36321 .17 115.0 115.5 132.8 121.7 119.2 121.6 102.4 113.0 121.8 105.5 108.2 131.6 105.6 136.2 Laundry appliances 36331 .121 155.31 148.6 107.7 145.81 152.1 152.6 148.2 164.7 179.8 165.6 155.3 166.9 141.5 168.7 .35 106.8 107.2 108.1 109.21 113.0 110.5 106.1 109.2 110.9 104.8 115.0 113.2 112.7 117.8 Misc. appliances 3634-6,91 3051 .44 155.2 156.7 164.4 165.0 146.6 155.5 143.3 157.6 154.5 148.8 157.6 159.2 163.8 152.3 TV and radio sets 3001 2.01 221.0 220.3 218.8 217.71 223.4 222.9 221.0 221.6 221.4 221.1 221.3 221.1 218.0 215.7 Communication equipment Electronic components 3071 1.31 250.1 261.9 263.7 268.61 266.8 268.2 270.6 270.5 274.2 277.3 282.3 282.9 283.1 286.6 166.8 165.7 TV tubes 3671-31 .13 135.1 156.6 150.2 180.2 114.4 119.8 122.8 119.8 135.9 139.2 145.5 Misc. electrical supp. 3691 .70 124.9 128.4 125.4 124.5 131.6 129.1 131.0 132.9 131.8 135.6 136.6 131.7 133.9 136.4 Storage battery 36911 .13 128.3 134.8 114.0 112.9 148.1 135.3 140.3 143.9 138.1 144.4 154.2 131.2 133.2 133.9 130.4 133.1 132.8 131.9 131.8 132.6 134.3 TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT 371 9.13 129.2 132.0 130.4 128.11 128.6 128.4 130.0 Motor vehicles & parts 371 5.25 111.81 116.0 114.0 110.21 109.7 109.3 113.0 114.8 119.6 119.1 116.6 117.5 118.5 121.4 1.821 103.5 108.1 104.9 95.51 88.4 90.8 98.5 103.8 112.9 113.0 107.1 106.2 111.5 115.7 Autos, total 91.9 83.71 77.5 79.5 $86.3 91.0 98.9 99.0 93.8 93.0 97.7 101.3 Consumer 1.161 90.7 94.7 .66 126.21 131.8 127.9 116.51 107.8 110.7 120.1 126.6 137.6 137.7 130.6 129.4 135.9 141.0 Business 1.03 147.0 159.8 152.9 153.71 160.9 154.9 159.9 154.5 159.8 157.3 157.4 162.8 158.4 163.3 Trucks and Duses Business vehicles .41 126.2 139.1 129.0 144.81 134.0 129.1 140.9 133.5 129.0 131.4 136.7 137.9 132.4 170.8 179.0 175.3 178.4 Consumer trucks .63 160.5 173.2 168.5 159.51 178.3 171.6 172.2 168.2 178.9 174.1 Truck trailers 3715 .091 142.9 140.8 135.9 126.61 146.8 160.6 149.6 155.0 148.5 153.7 165.7 159.8 165.3 156.0 Botor vehicle parts 3714 2.31 101.3 101.8 102.9 101.71 102.1 101.4 101.9 104.2 106.0 105.5 103.9 104.4 104.4 105.7 168.7 165.8 164.5 165.9 167.6 109.4 167.4 167.2 166.6 Aircraft and parts 3721 2.09 168.5 170.0 170.3 171.51 173.2 Ships and boats 3731 .601 83.61 85.6 85.1 87.71 89.6 89.8 89.7 89.1 89.4 88.9 86.2 86.5 85.2 88.0 Bail & aisc trans eq.374-6,91 1.11 164.51 163.4 161.7 159.91 161.6 163.1 164.9 161.7 159.1 157.0 159.4 159.4 162.9 162.4 .271 15.81 18.1 21.1 17.51 20.1 31.3 37.5 33.4 30.1 27.0 28.6 29.7 30.2 Bailroad equipment 374 38 2.66 143.9 146.7 147.8 145.5 148.2 149.2 149.7 150.5 151.3 153.0 156.4 156.8 158.0 159.1 INSTRUMENTS Equipment instr.& pts 381-4 1.52 172.0 176.7 178.7 177.4 176.4 179.3 181.1 182.2 181.7 182.7 184.0 185.7 187.4 191.2 MISC. MANUFACTURES 39 1.46 102.5 104.6 104.5 105.61 105.0 104.4 105.1 105.9 106.0 107.6 107.8 108.3 108.5 107.9 105.9 106.0 Misc. cons. goods 391,3,4,61 .841 106.1 104.3 108.71 104.3 105.6 104.3 106.5 104.6 107.1 106.5 106.5 Misc. DUS. supplies 395,9 .621 103.3 105.1 108.0 101.81 102.4 104.2 102.4 105.7 107.2 107.3 108.7 110.7 113.0 112.7 ELECTRIC UTILITIES 491 4.17 126.6 126.8 127.5 125.6 130.3 130.7 129.0 127.6 129.7 132.1 134.6 138.8 131.9 132.4 125.4 123.8 121.2 122.7 126.1 128.7 133.5 125.2 Elec. util. generation 1.761 120. 121.4 119.9 120.01 123.0 Fossil ruel geLeration 1.41 112.8 112.3 112.5 112.01 113.9 118.2 116.1 113.7 114.7 117.6 119.5 125.0 114.3 Hydro & Auclear gener. .35 149.5 157.6 149.3 152.01 159.5 154.0 154.7 151.1 154.5 159.9 165.7 167.7 169.1 Elec. util. sales 2.41 131.2 130.7 133.1 129.6 135.7 134.5 132.8 132.2 134.9 136.5 138.9 142.6 136.7 140.8 150.0 137.5 Residential elec. .95 130.0 132.0 130.21 136.4 136.5 136.5 131.1 132.7 Nonresidential elec. 1.46 131.1 133.8 129.21 135.3 133.3 130.4 133.0 136.3 136.3 137.7 137.8 Industrial elec. .68 109.6 110.5 114.0 110.31 114.0 112.3 109.0 111.6 113.7 115.5 117.5 116.4 113.4 Commercial & other elec. .781 149.1 151.0 145.7 153.8 151.5 149.1 151.6 150.0 154.5 155.4 156.5 156.3 Note: Seasonally adjusted industry totals are not aggregated from the seasonally adjusted components, but result from independent seasonal adjustment of the aggregated not seasonally adjusted components. 12 Table 4B-continued INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: INDUSTRY SUBTOTALS AND INDIVIDUAL SERIES Not seasonally adjusted, 1977 = 100 1977 1987 Series Pro- 1Ann. 1987 1988 SIC Ipor- 1Avg. OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB BAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT Code tion FABRICATED METAL PRODUCTS 341 6.46 111.0 115.1 114.1 114.5 113.0 117.8 119.0 118.4 119.3 122.6 119.4 122.3 125.5 125.2 Metal containers 3411 .521 91.71 91.8 94.0 86.71 89.5 96.2 97.7 95.4 99.6 102.1 101.6 105.4 105.8 101.6 Hardsare,tools,cutlery 3421 .731 105.7 102.8 103.01 100.1 109.8 110.1 107.8 110.8 114.4 111.7 115.7 118.7 117.3 Structural metal prod. 3441 1.671 109.5 113.7 114.3 114.41 110.0 107.5 108.9 111.0 113.4 117.1 116.8 118.1 120.3 121.0 Pasteners, stamp, etc. 345-7 1.951 116.7 123.4 118.7 120.11 120.0 131.3 133.5 131.6 129.1 133.3 126.7 130.4 134.2 134.1 NOHELECTRICAL MACHINERY 351 9.54 152.7 160.4 155.2 155.51 157.0 162.0 162.7 162.0 167.3 175.0 176.7 182.3 182.8 177.6 Engine & tarm equip. 351,21 1.481 64.3 67.1 69.4 71.2) 71.3 72.7 72.9 73.9 73.2 73.6 72.8 71.7 73.8 74.5 Construct. & allied ey. 3531 1.68 73.91 77.5 76.9 78.8 75.6 78.3 78.0 78.9 81.4 85.0 86.8 86.9 90.8 87.7 151.0 151.5 157.5 161.5 160.3 detalworking machinery 3541 1.241 135.9 140.5 134.2 135.9 138.5 145.4 146.0 144.2 141.8 Spec. & genl. ind. eg. 355,01 2.12) 102.21 106.2 104.9 105.81 106.2 108.4 112.4 110.4 112.3 115.6 114.1 117.0 120.4 118.8 Office, serv, & misc. 357-91 3.02 282.6 298.7 285.0 285.31 287.9 297.0 296.3 295.3 310.5 326.7 332.2 346.1 340.4 326.3 ELECTRICAL MACHINEEY 301 7.15 172.3 181.8 179.0 175.8 176.1 177.2 175.4 176.5 177.1 179.1 176.1 182.2 183.9 189.5 Major elect. ey.¿ pts 361.21 1.271 100.2 96.7 97.11 96.6 100.9 101.7 99.4 101.0 106.8 106.4 109.6 110.5 108.2 Household appliances 3031 .751 134.5 151.8 139.0 114.01 138.3 143.2 130.0 139.4 137.9 127.0 120.9 134.6 133.5 167.9 Cooking equipment 36311 .111 228.8 278.4 261.0 179.2 232.1 218.9 194.0 204.1 219.1 176.0 188.3 211.0 206.9 292.1 Refrigeration appl. 3632 .17 115.0 124.9 112.7 85.5 117.3 135.8 113.5 131.9 130.9 115.0 108.6 101.0 109.7 147.1 Laundry appliances 36331 .121 155.31 171.2 148.7 126.21 158.2 169.4 158.4 169.2 170.6 165.2 142.4 164.6 140.4 194.3 Misc. appliances 3634-6,91 .35 106.8 117.9 109.5 102.8 111.8 113.9 107.9 112.3 104.5 104.1 98.1 116.0 119.2 129.5 TV and radio sets 3651 -441 155.21 204.5 188.5 142.4 136.0 140.3 125.3 144.0 149.4 140.8 151.3 176.2 169.5 199.5 Communication equipment 3001 2.01 220.2 221.3 227.71 223.9 221.4 222.4 220.0 219.0 220.6 217.3 218.2 217.6 215.6 Electronic components 3671 1.31 264.4 208.1 271.6 267.4 266.5 269.7 269.9 273.2 277.0 273.3 283.1 284.0 289.3 TV tubes 3671-31 .131 135. 184.2 103.1 132.2 122.2 124.7 118.5 129.1 145.8 123.4 128.4 177.3 156.8 Misc. electrical supp. 3091 .70 124.9 137.6 132.9 132.61 132.1 123.4 125.0 125.7 125.4 132.5 127.0 131.8 142.7 145.8 Storage battery,repl. 36911 .13] 128.3 175.7 144.0 132.4 147.9 112.4 112.9 108.3 105.8 128.1 127.4 142.3 173.9 174.5 TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT 37 9.13 129.21 134.8 131.7 125.21 129.4 132.4 134.3 133.1 136.1 137.9 116.3 123.8 134.0 137.6 Motor vehicles & parts 371 5.251 111.8 120.8 114.6 101.61 109.6 116.3 120.3 119.7 125.3 128.7 93.2 106.2 120.9 127.0 Autos, total 1.821 103.5 117.1 107.1 81.7 89.2 103.7 111.1 112.7 123.1 129.6 68.3 85.1 111.4 125.7 Consumer 1.161 90.7 102.6 93.8 71.6 78.2 90.8 97.3 98.8 107.9 113.5 59.9 74.6 97.6 110.2 135.8 153.3 Business .66 126.2 142.7 130.5 99.0 108.8 126.4 135.4 137.4 150.1 158.0 83.3 103.8 Trucks and buses 1.03 147.0 167.9 150.8 120.0 158.9 169.0 174.1 163.8 170.4 173.7 115.8 149.0 167.9 173.7 Business vehicles .41 126.21 145.2 126.0 117.3) 134.0 140.9 155.2 142.7 139.4 146.0 100.6 126.2 140.3 Consumer trucks .631 160.51 182.6 167.0 131.71 175.0 187.3 186.4 177.4 190.6 191.7 125.7 163.7 185.8 191.1 Truck trailers 3715 .09 142.9 143.7 139.9 133.91 130.4 155.5 153.9 152.0 150.3 159.5 147.1 163.6 176.4 159.2 Motor vehicle parts 3714 2.31 101.31 101.8 103.2 105.0 102.8 101.2 102.2 104.2 105.8 106.6 100.6 101.4 105.2 105.8 Aircraft and parts 372 2.09 168.5 170.7 173.4 175.9 174.1 170.7 166.8 163.8 165.0 166.6 104.0 162.9 167.0 167.4 Ships and boats 3731 .661 83.61 84.7 85.6 88.5 90.0 90.6 91.2 91.5 91.4 89.4 83.6 83.0 83.1 87.0 Bail b aisc trans eq.374-6,91 1.11 164.5 163.0 161.8 103.21 162.7 161.0 165.3 163.4 159.3 156.7 154.3 158.0 164.2 162.5 Railroad e,uipment 374 .27 15.8 20.4 20.7 20.71 19.0 20.0 31.2 32.0 29.0 26.3 28.3 32.1 40.5 158.5 161.0 162.7 160.3 INSTRUMENTS 38 2.66 143.9 148.9 147.2 144.7 144.6 146.6 148.1 147.9 148.8 155.8 Equipment iLstr.8 pts 381-41 1.52 172.0 178.0 175.3 171.8 169.6 174.5 177.9 177.1 179.0 187.4 190.4 194.4 198.7 192.8 MISC. MANUFACTURES 39 1.46 102.5 108.8 102.8 99.5 97.8 105.2 103.7 104.0 104.2 109.8 107.1 113.9 116.5 112.0 Bisc. cons. goods 391,3,4,61 .84 101.9 111.1 100.6 101.11 98.3 103.8 104.3 104.7 104.4 110.8 105.1 112.0 114.2 111.0 Misc. bus. supplies 395,91 .62 103.3 105.6 105.9 97.21 97.1 107.0 102.8 103.2 103.9 108.5 109.9 116.5 119.7 113.3 ELECTRIC UTILITIES 491 4.17 126.6 117.0 119.7 124.9 139.1 137.3 123.0 117.6 117.3 135.0 140.0 152.9 137.1 122.0 Elec. util. generation 1.76 120.1 111.8 113.9 121.11 130.5 127.4 117.3 111.0 114.2 132.1 141.7 147.6 125.0 Fossil fuel generation 1.41) 112.8 105.7 107.4 112.01 120.1 118.2 107.1 100.5 104.1 124.5 135.4 143.6 115.8 Hydro & nuclear gener. .35 149.5 136.0 140.2 157.61 172.1 164.1 158.5 152.8 154.7 162.5 100.8 163.6 161.5 Elec. util. sales 2.41 131.2 120.8 123.9 127.61 145.3 144.5 127.2 122.4 119.6 137.2 149.1 156.8 Residential elec. .95 132.81 111.7 113.7 134.21 164.2 157.4 131.5 116.4 105.6 129.3 156.6 172.2 146.9 Nonresidential elec. 1.46 130.2 126.8 130.5 123.41 133.0 136.1 124.4 126.4 128.8 142.3 144.2 146.7 Industrial elec. .68 109.6 109.2 114.8 105.21 108.8 114.3 107.0 110.1 112.7 119.2 116.5 120.0 118.1 Consercial & other elec. .78) 148.1 142.1 144.2 139.31 154.1 155.0 139.5 140.5 142.8 162.4 168.4 170.0 169.3 Note: Seasonally adjusted industry totals are not aggregated from the seasonally adjusted components, but result from independent seasonal adjustment of the aggregated not seasonally adjusted components. 13 Table 5 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: INDEXES; 1977 = 100 Quarterly averages, seasonally adjusted Quarterly Averages of Monthly Indexes 1986 1987 1988 SERIES 02 Q3 04 01 02 03 04 01 Q2 03 Industrial production 124.4 124.8 125.91 126.9 128.2 131.0 133.21 134.5 136.0 138.4 133.3 134.51 135.6 136.8 139.6 141.11 143.2 144.8 147.11 Products, total 132.5 Final products 131.6 132.4 133.31 134.4 135.4 138.0 139.51 141.5 143.3 145.61 Consumer yoods 123.8 124.4 125.41 126.2 126.7 128.7 129.41 131.2 132.5 134.71 Durable consumer goods 114.3 116.5 117.91 119.9 118.1 120.1 122.8 120.9 124.7 125.8 120.41 119.0 125.4 125.01 Automotive products 115.1 116.9 115.31 120.3 116.2 116.6 Home goods 113.6 116.2 119.91 119.5 119.5 122.7 124.71 122.4 124.2 126.4 #ondurable consumer goods 127.3 127.3 128.21 128.6 129.9 131.9 131.9 135.1 135.4 138.0 142.1 143.0 143.7 145.3 146.9 150.4 152.81 155.2 157.6 160.0 Equipment, total Business & defense equipment 146.9 148.4 148.71 150.4 152.1 154.7 157.21 160.1 162.5 165.11 Business equipment 138.4 139.4 139.21 140.7 142.6 145.8 148.91 152.3 156.5 160.11 Defense and space equipment 180.2 183.6 185.8 188.3 189.0 189.2 189.31 190.5 186.0 184.8 Intermediate products 135.5 136.8 138.5 139.9 141.8 145.1 146.61 149.2 150.0 152.31 Construction supplies 125.5 126.9 127.7 130.2 129.6 132.6 133.8 137.3 138.0 138.41 Business supplies 143.9 145.1 147.71 148.1 152.2 155.7 157.61 159.3 160.2 164.21 Commercial energy products 128.7 127.4 129.61 127.7 130.9 133.6 133.11 135.2 130.6 137.21 Materials 113.3 113.0 114.3 115.0 116.5 119.2 122.5) 122.5 124.0 126.5 Durable goods materials 119.4 119.0 120.71 121.4 122.9 125.7 130.31 131.5 134.1 137.11 Basic metal materials 79.1 77.5 80.21 79.4 81.8 89.4 97.31 91.6 93.4 98.71 Nondurable goods materials 116.5 118.3 120.31 121.2 124.0 128.2 130.11 129.4 130.4 132.91 Textile, paper, & chen materials 116.7 118.9 120.91 122.3 125.1 130.5 133.01 131.6 132.4 135.31 Textile materials 103.6 105.9 106.21 106.1 111.4 116.8 113.11 111.8 109.0 109.01 Pulp and paper materials 131.0 134.1 137.01 136.4 137.7 144.6 145.11 145.7 145.9 148.91 139.61 Chemical materials 116.1 118.1 120.31 122.9 125.3 130.2 135.5 133.5 135.7 Energy materials 99.7 98.1 97.8 98.3 98.7 100.0 102.11 100.9 100.6 102.41 Manufacturing 128.5 129.2 130.4 131.6 133.2 135.7 138.1 139.6 141.5 144.0 Durable 127.7 128.2 129.1 130.5 131.4 133.7 136.91 138.4 141.0 143.31 Mondurable 129.6 130.7 132.11 133.1 135.7 138.6 139.71 141.4 142.3 145.0 Mining and Utilities 102.8 100.8 101.51 102.3 102.5 104.9 107.3 107.1 100.7 108.11 Eining 100.3 96.8 96.91 98.8 99.0 100.7 104.31 102.5 103.4 103.9 111.9 115.0 Utilities 107.0 107.3 109.1 108.1 108.3 111.8 112.31 114.7 Table 6 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: GROSS VALUE OF PRODUCTS Billions of 1982 dollars at annual rates, seasonally adjusted Billions of 1982 Dollars at Annual Rates 1987 Quarters Months 1982 Ann. 1987 1988 1988 SERIES Dollars Avg. #2 Q3 04 01 02 03 JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV 1829.1 1855.1 1857.6 Products, total 1376.8 1736.4 1717.8 1736.7 1775. 1798.5 1815.4 1826.71 1813.9 1822.3 1828.6 Final products 1084.51 1333.91 1320.4 1330.6 1360.1 1380.8 1395.1 1402.41 1394.3 1398.9 1404.2 1404.2 1425.3 1426.3 866.1 862.2 879.21 893.5 897.2 897.6 893.6 895.6 900.4 896.9 915.8 916.1 Consumer yoods 703.71 858.3 Durable consumer goods 133.31 208.21 203.8 206.4 212.51 209.2 218.1 218.9 219.4 217.6 218.9 220.4 225.4 225.9 Automotive products 65.91 113.01 110.0 110.5 115.01 113.4 120.8 120.21 122.3 118.8 120.0 121.6 124.3 125.6 97.1 98.7 98.9 98.7 101.1 100.4 Home yoods 67.41 95.21 93.8 95.9 97.61 95.7 97.4 98.81 Nondurable consumer goods 570.41 657.9 654.6 655.7 666.71 684.4 679.0 678.7 674.2 678.0 681.5 676.5 690.4 690.1 Equipment, total 380.81 467.81 462.1 468.5 480.91 487.3 497.9 504.8 500.7 503.2 503.8 507.3 509.5 510.2 Business & defense equipment 345.41 449.21 445.3 448.2 460.31 468.1 478.3 $85.21 480.9 483.7 484.2 487.8 490.4 492.0 278.0 352.11 348.3 351.4 362.71 370.2 382.7 390.7 386.0 388.9 389.9 393.2 395.4 396.7 Business equipment 97.9 95.5 94.6 94.9 94.7 94.3 94.6 95.0 95.4 Detense and space equipment 67.41 97.11 97.0 96.8 97.61 Istermediate products 292.21 402.51 397.4 406.1 415.01 417.7 420.3 424.2 419.6 423.4 424.3 424.9 429.8 431.3 Construction supplies 108.31 159.71 157.2 161.2 162.71 166.2 167.1 168.01 166.8 168.6 167.4 168.0 169.4 170.8 257.0 256.9 260.4 Business supplies 183.91 242.81 240.2 244.9 252.41 251.5 253.2 256.2] 252.9 254.8 Commercial energy products 63.41 78.0 77.2 78.6 82.71 79.1 80.9 79.7 80.4 79.8 80.3 78.9 14 Table 7 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: DIFFUSION INDEXES Percent of component series higher than in earlier months THREE HONTHS SIX MONTHS ONE MONTH EARLIER EARLIER EARLIER 1977-87 56.3 58.4 AVERAGE 53.5 70.6 79.4 88.3 HIGH 26.4 23.2 23.0 LOW 1986 54.8 48.0 ОСТОБЕН 58.7 55.0 56.5 NOVEMBER 58.1 58.1 65.3 64.3 DECEMBER 1987 43.8 56.9 55.8 JANUARY 58.5 61.7 FEBRUARY 60.9 MARCH 49.4 56.2 69.2 49.6 59.5 63.7 APRIL 58.1 63.9 MAY 59.5 51.4 57.7 56.9 JUNE 64.7 67.7 66.1 JULY 64.9 65.9 AUGUST 52.8 61.5 64.3 SEPTEMBER 45.6 59.5 56.2 73.4 OCTOBER 58.9 63.1 71.4 NOVEMBER 54.2 69.4 72.4 DECEMBER 1988 57.3 68.3 67.1 JANUARY 48.8 54.6 62.7 FEBRUARY 60.3 71.8 SARCH 54.4 54.6 56.9 63.9 APRIL 55.6 60.1 60.5 MAY 59.9 57.9 JUNE 56.0 66.7 69.6 JULY 65.9 55.6 67.5 69.2 AUGUST 51.0 62.5 65.5 SEPTEMBER 59.3 60.3 71.6 OCTOBER THE DIFFUSION INDEXES SHOW THE PERCENT OF THE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX'S 252 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COMPONENT SERIES NOTE: IN THE MONTH INDICATED WERE HIGHER THAN THEY WERE ONE BONTH EARLIER, THREE MONTHS EARLIER, AND SIX NONTHS EARLIER. IN CALCULATING THAT THE DIFFUSION INDEXES HALF OF THE UNCHANGED COMPONENTS ARE COUNTED AS BEING HIGHER AND NO ALLOWANCE IS MADE FOR THE RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF THE INDIVIDUAL COMPONENTS 1 # TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION. DIFFUSION INDEXES BASED ON CHANGES OVER A SIX-MONTH PERIOD GENERALLY SHOW MORE PROBOUNCED CYCLICAL PATTERNS THAN DIFFUSION INDEXES BASED OR CHANGES OVER SHORTER PERIODS. Table 8 AUTO ASSEMBLIES AT ANNUAL RATES Seasonally adjusted 1987 Millions of Units Ann. Avg. 1987 1988 JAN FEB HAB APR HAY JOB JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV NOV DEC 7.1 7.1 6.5 6.0 6.1 6.6 7.0 7.5 7.5 7.1 7.1 7.4 7.7 7.6 Autos, total 15 Table 9A ELECTRIC POWER USE BY INDUSTRIES Seasonally adjusted indexes, 1977 = 100 Indexes Percentage change from Indexes year previous quarter ago 1977 SIC (bil. 1987 1987 1988 1987 1988 1987 1988 Series code KEEL All 03 04 01 02 03 04 01 02 03 03 SBP OCT TOTAL 10-14,20-39 785.8 103.3 105.2 106.5 106.5 105.9 109.21 1.2 .0 -0.6 3.1 3.81 109.1 109.7 NAJOR INDUSTRY DIVISIONS 59.4 112.3 115.4 121.5 116.4 114.2 118.9 5.3 -4.1 -1.8 4.11 3.11 118.4 119.5 MINING 10-14/ MANUFACTURING 20-391 726.4 102.71 104.5 105.41 105.9 105.3 108.51 .9 .4 -0.6 3.11 3.91 108.5 109.0 24,25,32-391 344.31 100.21 101.1 105.21 106.1 100.4 109.11 4.0 .9 .3 2.61 8.01 109.2 110.8 DURABLE NONDURABLE 20-23,26-311 382.11 105.01 107.4 105.51 105.4 104.8 107.9 -1.8 -0.1 -0.6 3.01 .41 108.1 107.3 INDUSTRY_GEOUPS AND SERIES 101 15.1 102.21 112.8 126.51 110.7 106.2 124.21 12.2 -12.5 -4.0 16.91 10.1 126.8 128.2 METAL MINING Iron ore 1011 0.11 98.11 110.6 138.91 108.6 97.4 122.81 25.6 -21.8 -10.3 26.01 11.01 126.5 131.6 Copper ore 102 5.91 124.6 136.3 135.4 133.0 137.6 142.41 -0.7 -1.8 3.5 3.51 4.41 143.8 146.5 COAL 11,121 10.31 134.5 134.7 144.1 134.7 130.2 132.31 7.0 -6.5 -3.4 1.61 -1.81 134.2 140.6 OIL AND GAS EXTRACTION 131 23.01 116.11 116.8 118.31 118.8 117.5 116.31 1.2 .4 -1.1 -1.11 -0.51 114.7 114.1 Crude oil and natural yas 1311 18.21 118.7 119.8 120.6 119.8 119.6 118.41 .7 -0.6 -0.2 -1.01 -1.21 116.7 116.1 Natural gas liquids 1321 3.41 95.81 92.7 101.91 108.1 100.4 95.51 9.9 6.1 -7.2 -4.91 3.01 94.9 97.2 STONE AND EARTH MINERALS 141 11.01 95.7 99.5 98.0 99.2 101.9 105.91 -1.5 1.2 2.7 3.91 6.51 100.0 100.0 Crushed stone 1421 2.41 139.71 141.3 145.81 140.3 150.6 150.01 3.2 -3.8 7.3 -0.41 6.21 149.2 145.6 Sand and gravel 1441 2.01 100.8 104.2 101.61 100.3 105.7 103.81 -2.5 -1.3 5.4 -1.81 -0.41 103.8 103.0 Chemical & fertilizer mat. 1471 5.01 73.2) 77.6 74.01 77.9 78.1 83.41 -4.6 5.2 .3 6.81 7.51 73.5 75.7 FOODS 201 42.41 125.1 127.0 126.8 128.4 129.4 131.41 -0.1 1.3 .7 1.61 3.51 130.5 132.0 Meat products 2011 0.91 119.6 121.6 123.1) 123.4 126.3 126.31 1.2 .3 2.3 .01 3.8 126.0 126.9 Dairy products 2021 5.31 126.01 127.4 128.41 133.7 133.9 134.71 .8 4.1 .2 .61 5.71 133.1 131.6 Canned and frozen foods 2031 5.71 143.6 147.6 144.31 143.8 145.9 153.51 -2.3 -0.3 1.5 5.21 4.01 152.5 145.6 Grain sill products 2041 7.41 109.6 109.2 112.9) 115.3 115.9 114.4) 3.3 2.1 .0 -1.41 4.71 114.7 115.5 Bakery products 2051 2.51 141.4 140.9 140.71 143.2 140.3 143.71 -0.1 1.8 -2.0 2.41 2.0 144.5 147.3 Sugar and confectioner) 2061 3.31 185.51 190.8 192.01 194.3 187.7 190.11 .6 1.2 -3.4 1.31 -0.41 191.6 197.5 Fats and oils 2071 3.41 94.21 89.8 95.5 98.7 97.2 96.01 6.4 3.4 -1.5 -1.31 6.91 93.7 98.5 132.51 -2.1 .2 -0.2 2.91 .71 131.8 136.3 Beverages 2081 4.81 128.01 131.6 128.91 129.2 128.9 Misc. food preparations 2091 3.11 118.3 121.2 117.7) 117.1 119.9 123.9 -2.9 -0.5 2.4 3.3 2.21 124.8 117.1 TOBACCO PRODUCTS 211 1.31 109.0 113.1 110.0 110.7 100.8 111.3 -2.8 .6 -8.9 10.41 -1.6 107.0 103.4 TEXTILE MILL PRODUCTS 221 28.31 104.6 107.0 103.0 109.6 105.3 107.11 -3.7 6:4 -3.9 1.01 .11 105.8 101.9 100.6 95.5 94.81 -4.2 7.6 -5.1 -0.71 -2.8 93.7 88.7 Fabrics 221-41 12.11 95.4 97.5 93.51 Knit goods 2251 3.71 87.4 88.0 88.51 92.0 90.9 91.81 .6 3.9 -1.2 .91 4.31 92.3 93.4 Fabric finishing 2201 2.21 132.21 134.3 132.71 132.8 135.8 134.71 -1.2 .1 2.2 -0.81 .31 129.3 139.4 Yarn and thread 2281 0.71 121.4 125.0 119.1 126.5 120.1 127.0 -4.8 6.2 -5.0 5.71 1.51 124.4 118.1 Miscellaneous textiles 2291 2.11 106.7 108.4 105.7 109.5 108.7 109.4 -2.5 3.6 -0.8 .71 .91 107.3 106.8 APPAREL PRODUCTS 231 6.61 133.7 135.3 131.7 134.2 134.1 135.7 -2.7 1.9 -0.1 1.21 .31 134.9 133.9 Men's outerwear 231,21 2.11 143.1 145.7 145.21 148.8 150.8 149.31 -0.3 2.5 1.3 -1.01 2.51 153.7 150.2 Women's outerwear 2331 1.91 114.6 115.6 111.11 113.3 105.9 106.61 -3.9 2.0 -6.5 .71 -7.71 101.2 104.5 LUMBER AND PRODUCTS 241 16.41 137.7) 140.8 139.21 142.5 143.7 143.71 -1.1 2.4 .8 .01 2.0 143.1 141.0 Lumber 2421 0.91 113.0 115.6 114.21 117.0 114.6 113.5 -1.2 2.4 -2.0 -1.01 -1.81 111.9 112.3 Billwork and plywood 2431 4.41 149.9 152.4 152.1 153.2 151.4 153.81 -0.2 .7 -1.1 1.61 .91 152.7 149.8 FUENITURE AND FIXTURES 25 4.21 140.3 143.4 143.3 143.8 144.0 148.21 -0.1 .3 .1 2.91 3.31 147.2 144.8 Home furniture 2511 2.81 126.51 129.0 127.51 127.8 128.0 129.31 -1.2 .3 .1 1.01 .21 129.2 128.4 PAPER AND PLODUCTS 261 71.91 124.3 124.7 125.6 129.3 127.9 129.4 .7 2.9 -1.1 1.11 3.71 128.8 128.9 Food pulp 2611 5.91 128.71 124.8 117.41 134.1 133.4 140.81 -5.9 14.2 -U.6 5.61 12.81 144.5 143.7 135.6 Paper 2621 34.41 133.9 135.3 130.61 139.9 135.8 137.81 1.0 2.4 -3.0 1.51 1.8) 137.4 Paperboard 2631 22.11 102.2 102.9 105.31 101.0 104.3 110.8 2.3 -4.1 3.3 6.21 7.71 113.0 108.7 118.8 119.0 Converted paper 2641 5.01 114.2 111.9 117.0 117.6 121.2 120.01 4.6 .5 3.0 -0.91 7.21 Paperboard containers 2651 3.41 126.61 128.7 126.21 132.4 132.1 135.71 -1.9 4.9 -0.2 2.71 5.51 140.1 131.6 4.71 170.1 174.3 Building paper and board 2661 1.11 162.3 166.4 166.5 169.2 167.0 174.21 .1 1.6 -1.3 4.41 PRINTING AND PUBLISHING 27 10.61 161.5 163.7 164.01 168.6 170.0 172.5 .2 2.8 .8 1.5) 5.4 172.3 174.4 1.11 3.6 136.9 142.7 Newspapers 271 2.61 134.4 136.5 136.1 141.3 139.8 141.41 -0.3 3.8 -1.1 Commercial Printing 275 4.81 189.1 190.7 196.51 200.8 202.8 203.61 3.0 2.2 1.0 .41 6.8 202.9 207.6 CHEMICALS AND PRODUCTS 28 162.1 86.6 89.5 86.71 83.8 84.0 89.21 -3.1 -3.3 .3 6.11 -0.41 89.6 88.5 Basic chemicals 2811 85.61 71.81 75.6 71.21 65.4 66.5 71.71 -5.8 -8.2 1.7 7.81 -5.1 72.9 71.7 Alkalies and chlorine 2812 13.31 100.41 103.5 104.9 104.9 95.7 103.0 1.3 .0 -B.7 7.61 -0.51 107.5 104.3 Inorganic chemicals,nec 28191 58.11 49.71 54.2 47.91 39.5 43.1 46.71 -11.6 -17.6 9.2 8.41 -13.81 47.6 47.2 Acid and fertilizer mat. 13.01 70.61 71.1 70.71 68.9 66.9 70.01 -0.6 -2.5 -2.8 4.61 -1.61 71.2 72.0 Nuclear mats., nondefense 44.61 41.0 46.8 38.01 27.7 33.3 36.61 -18.7 -27.2 20.1 10.21 -21.71 37.6 37.1 Symthetic materials 2821 19.31 124.0 123.9 125.7 131.2 130.8 131.6 1.4 4.4 -0.2 .61 6.21 131.7 132.5 Plastics materials 28211 9.21 153.51 149.8 150.01 163.1 163.3 164.51 .5 8.3 .2 .71 9.8 163.5 164.9 Drugs 2831 4.11 157.11 161.2 154.81 163.3 160.2 175.21 -4.0 5.4 1.8 5.41 8.7 170.7 165.5 Soaps and toiletries 2841 2.11 128.7 133.2 129.01 130.6 138.8 147.31 -3.2 1.2 0.3 6.11 10.6) 141.4 145.3 Industrial organic chea. 2861 35.81 97.91 97.8 97.21 97.4 95.5 97.51 -0.7 .2 -1.9 2.01 -0.31 97.5 98.9 Fara chemicals 2871 10.51 85.51 80.7 88.81 92.7 86.6 87.91 10.1 4.4 -6.6 1.51 9.0 88.3 90.2 16 Table 9B ELECTRIC POWER USE BY INDUSTRIES Not seasonally adjusted, 1977 = 100 Indexes Percentage Change from Indexes year previous quarter ago 1977 SIC (bil. 1987 1987 1988 1987 1988 1987 1988 Series codel KWHL Avg, 22 04 01 02 03 04 01 02 us 03 SEP OCT TOTAL 10-14,20-39 785.8 103.3 100.9 105.0 104.6 107.3 111.0 -1.8 -0.4 2.6 3.41 3.8 112.0 110.4 NAJOB INDUSTRY DIVISIONS MINING 10-14 59.4 112.3 111.8 118.0 120.5 116.8 115.21 5.5 2.2 -3.1 -1.41 3.0 116.2 116.8 HANUFACTURING 20-391 720.4 102.7 100.0 104.21 103.5 106.7 110.71 -2.3 -0.0 3.0 3.81 3.91 111.7 110.0 DURABLE 24,25,32-391 344.31 100.21 102.4 103.6 105.1 107.6 110.6 1.2 1.4 2.4 2.81 8.01 111.5 111.2 NONDURABLE 20-23,20-31 382.1 105.0 110.5 104.7 102.2 105.9 110.91 -5.2 -2.4 3.7 4.71 .41 111.9 108.9 INDUSTRY GROUPS AND SERIES METAL MINING 101 15.11 102.2 107.8 113.1 114.9 117.4 118.7 4.9 1.6 2.1 1.11 10.1 119.2 120.8 Iron ore 1011 6.1 98.11 105.6 113.1 113.9 113.3 117.3 7.1 .7 -0.5 3.51 11.1 117.8 119.7 Copper ore 1021 5.9 124.6 132.2 132.11 134.5 142.7 138.11 -0.1 1.8 0.1 -3.31 4.4 137.7 137.8 COAL 11,12 10.3 134.5 118.8 140.5 154.4 129.1 116.6 18.3 9.9 -16.4 -9.71 -1.8 124.6 130.6 OIL AND GAS EXTRACTION 131 23.01 116.1 117.5 118.0 118.9 110.4 116.91 .9 .3 -2.1 .41 -0.51 115.8 113.1 Crude oil and natural gas 131 18.21 118.7 119.9 121.31 120.9 117.7 118.51 1.1 -0.3 -2.7 .71 -1.21 117.3 114.7 Natural yas liquids 1321 3.41 95.8 97.5 98.8 102.7 103.3 100.41 1.3 4.0 .5 -2.81 3.0 100.3 97.9 STONE AND EARTH MINERALS 141 11.01 95.7 98.5 99.9 96.1 103.9 104.81 1.4 -3.8 8.1 .91 6.4 103.5 104.0 Crushed stone 1421 2.41 139.7 147.4 149.8 127.3 154.0 156.41 1.6 -15.0 20.9 1.61 6.21 156.6 156.0 Sand and gravel 7441 2.01 100.8 111.0 108.6 86.2 106.4 110.61 -2.1 -20.7 23.5 4.01 -0.31 110.4 112.9 Chemical & fertilizer mat. 1471 5.01 73.21 73.7 74.8 79.5 79.1 79.01 1.5 6.4 -0.6 -0.11 7.3 76.2 76.2 FOODS 20 42.41 125.1 137.0 127.9 120.6 125.9 141.7 -6.6 -5.7 4.4 12.6! 3.5 143.7 138.2 Meat products 2011 6.91 119.6 133.5 123.11 114.5 123.0 138.01 -7.8 -7.0 7.4 12.71 3.81 138.6 132.3 Dairy products 2021 5.31 128.01 140.7 124.3 123.1 134.8 148.8 -11.7 -1.0 9.5 10.41 5.71 145.6 132.6 Canned aLu frozet foods 2031 5.71 143.61 163.2 146.01 133.0 139.0 169.81 -10.2 -9.3 4.6 22.21 4.11 181.5 166.1 Grain mill products 2041 7.41 109.6 112.1 115.5 113.6 111.8 117.41 3.0 -1.6 -1.6 5.01 4.71 119.0 120.0 Bakery products 2051 2.51 141.4 155.9 138.6 131.8 138.6 159.0 -11.1 -4.9 5.2 14.71 2.0 160.8 151.7 Sugar and confectionery 2061 3.31 185.51 187.5 216.71 190.7 169.3 186.91 15.6 -12.0 -11.2 10.41 -0.3 194.6 210.0 Fats and oils 2071 3.41 94.2 88.5 100.1 99.7 92.8 94.61 13.1 -0.4 -6.9 1.91 6.91 95.4 102.8 Beverages 2081 4.61 128.0 146.8 125.9 117.8 128.2 147.81 -14.2 -6.5 8.9 15.31 .71 147.0 139.0 Misc. food preparations 2091 3.11 118.3 130.3 118.6 109.5 117.6 133.21 -8.9 -7.7 7.4 13.31 2.2 134.5 124.0 TOBACCO PRODUCTS 21) 1.3 109.0 119.4 114.2 103.2 97.7 117.71 -4.3 -y.6 -5.4 20.51 -1.4 120.0 117.6 TEXTILE MILL PRODUCTS 221 28.31 104.6 113.6 104.1 98.6 106.2 113.71 -8.3 -5.3 9.7 5.11 .11 116.6 110.2 Fabrics 221-41 12.11 95.4 103.8 94.71 90.2 98.0 101.0 -8.8 -4.7 8.7 3.11 -2.71 103.0 96.9 Knit goods 2251 3.7) 87.41 97.8 86.11 81.6 93.5 101.8 -12.0 -5.2 14.6 8.91 4.01 105.4 97.8 Fabric finishing 2261 2.21 132.2 137.7 135.01 126.2 136.6 138.11 -1.9 -6.5 8.2 1.11 .31 141.1 145.7 Yarn and thread 2281 6.71 121.4 132.2 120.91 112.5 124.2 134.4 -8.6 -6.9 10.4 8.21 1.61 137.8 128.7 Miscellaneous textiles 229 2.11 106.7 113.4 104.51 103.1 110.9 114.7 -7.9 -1.3 7.5 3.5 1.21 118.2 112.7 APPAREL PRODUCTS 231 0.01 133.7 155.6 127.2 122.1 130.5 155.9 -18.2 -4.0 6.9 19.51 .21 159.4 141.6 Men's outerwear 231,21 2.11 143.1 170.6 139.6 130.9 148.9 174.91 -18.2 -6.2 13.7 17.41 2.5 184.9 158.4 Women's outerwear 2331 1.91 114.6 136.1 106.6 101.0 102.7 125.4 -21.7 -5.2 1.6 22.21 -7.8 122.4 109.8 LUMBER AND PRODUCTS 241 16.41 137.7 137.2 139.3 145.7 144.0 140.00 1.5 4.6 -1.2 -2.81 2.0 142.2 140.6 Lumber 2421 6.91 113.0 111.7 114.7 119.6 115.5 109.6 2.7 4.2 -3.4 -5.11 -1.8 110.9 111.5 Millwork and plywood 243 4.41 149.9 148.7 150.71 156.2 153.2 150.00 1.3 3.7 -1.9 -2.11 .91 153.6 147.7 FURNITURE AND FIATURES 251 4.21 140.3 144.5 143.81 144.1 141.9 149.41 -0.4 .2 -1.5 5.31 3.41 154.6 149.3 Home furniture 251 2.81 126.51 127.8 128.51 129.1 126.7 128.31 .5 .4 -1.8 1.21 .31 134.7 131.4 PAPER AND PRODUCTS 261 71.9 124.3 125.9 125.21 127.7 128.6 130.61 -0.6 2.0 .7 1.51 3.71 130.7 131.1 Wood pulp 2611 5.91 128.71 124.7 119.61 130.4 134.3 140.61 -4.1 9.0 3.0 4.71 12.81 145.2 142.4 Paper 2021 34.41 133.91 135.2 135.5 139.4 137.4 137.61 .2 2.9 -1.4 .11 1.8 137.2 138.5 Paperboard 2631 22.11 102.21 102.3 103.91 101.7 105.6 110.21 1.6 -2.1 3.8 4.31 7.7 112.0 107.1 Converted paper 264 5.0 114.2 115.5 116.4 113.7 122.0 123.91 .8 -2.3 7.3 1.61 7.3 124.6 121.6 Paperboard containers 2651 3.41 126.61 132.5 125.71 129.2 131.5 140.01 -5.2 2.8 1.8 6.41 5.6 140.7 136.4 Building paper and board 2661 1.1 162.31 166.1 165.5 168.5 168.3 174.01 -0.4 1.8 -0.1 3.41 4.7 172.1 175.2 PRINTING AND PUBLISHING 27 10.61 161.51 184.5 161.5 154.3 165.3 194.5) -12.5 -4.5 7.1 17.61 5.4 193.9 181.9 Newspapers 2711 2.61 134.4) 152.0 133.51 128.8 138.2 158.11 -12.5 -3.5 7.3 14.41 3.61 154.5 145.8 Consercial Printing 275 4.81 189.11 215.4 194.81 184.1 195.0 230.01 -9.6 -5.5 5.9 18.01 6.81 229.5 218.7 CHEMICALS AND PRODUCTS 281 162.11 86.61 90.0 84.81 82.5 86.6 89.7) -5.8 -2.7 5.0 3.5 -0.41 89.9 88.1 Basic chemicals 2811 85.61 71.81 75.4 69.31 64.0 69.0 71.51 -8.0 -6.8 6.8 3.01 -5.1 71.5 70.5 Alkalies and chlorine 28121 13.31 100.41 103.6 101.61 102.4 100.7 103.11 -1.9 .8 -1.7 2.41 -0.51 107.0 101.2 Inorganic chemicals,nec 28191 58.11 49.71 53.4 46.01 39.5 45.2 46.11 -14.0 -14.0 14.3 2.11 -13.71 45.3 46.0 Acid and fertilizer mat. 13.0 70.61 71.1 69.91 68.3 68.3 70.01 -1.7 -2.3 .0 2.51 -1.5 69.0 71.6 Nuclear mats., mondefeuse 44.61 41.01 46.1 36.01 27.5 35.5 36.11 -21.9 -23.4 29.0 1.7 -21.51 35.4 35.4 Synthetic materials 282 19.3 124.01 128.6 123.5 125.8 133.5 136.6 -4.0 1.9 6.1 2.31 6.21 138.2 133.3 Plastics materials 28211 9.21 153.51 154.2 147.41 158.6 166.3 169.31 -4.4 7.6 4.8 1.81 9.81 170.5 165.9 Drugs 2831 4.11 157.11 178.4 151.4 149.5 165.9 193.91 -15.2 -1.2 11.0 16.91 8.61 190.4 172.3 Soaps and toiletries 284 2.11 128.71 140.2 128.3) 127.5 135.6 155.01 -8.5 -0.6 6.3 14.41 10.61 153.1 149.2 Industrial organic ches. 2861 35.81 97.91 95.5 96.0 98.9 97.5 95.21 .5 3.0 -1.4 -2.31 -0.31 95.3 98.0 Para chemicals 287) 10.51 85.51 81.4 88.61 90.0 88.7 88.71 8.9 1.6 -1.4 .01 9.0 91.2 91.1 17 Table 9A-continued ELECTRIC POWER USE BY INDUSTRIES Seasonally adjusted indexes, 1977 = 100 Indexes Percentage change from Indexes year previous quarter ago 1977 SIC (bil. 1987 1987 1988 1987 1988 1987 1988 Series code KWHL Avg. 23 04 01 02 03 04 01 02 03 03 SEP OCT PETROLEUM PRODUCTS 291 34.7 121.3 123.6 122.8 123.1 119.3 116.5 -0.7 .3 -3.1 -2.41 -5.8 118.3 117.4 1.21 3.1 149.1 149.3 RUBBER & PLASTICS PRODUCTS 301 23.11 143.0 146.1 147.31 147.9 146.7 150.61 .9 .4 .6 Tires 3011 5.41 75.5 77.1 76.31 77.4 79.7 81.31 -1.0 1.5 2.9 2.11 5.51 80.4 78.6 Rubber products, Lec 3061 2.21 103.0 104.9 106.31 105.9 106.6 111.01 1.4 -0.4 .7 4.11 5.81 111.8 108.5 198.3 198.2 196.9 197.81 1.3 .0 -0.7 .51 1.01 195.8 197.4 Plastics products, nec 307 14.21 192.1 195.8 LEATHER AND PRODUCTS 311 1.41 98.5 102.1 99.71 96.4 97.7 101.7 -2.3 -3.3 1.3 4.21 -0.31 102.7 99.8 Shoes 3141 .71 88.4 92.5 90.61 88.0 90.8 92.21 -2.0 -3.0 3.2 1.51 -0.31 93.0 89.9 CLAY. GLASS, AND STONE 321 31.41 106.5 105.8 107.21 109.5 100.4 108.11 1.3 2.2 -1.0 -0.31 2.2 107.8 108.2 145.4 145.5 Flat glass 3211 1.31 121.61 124.7 130.21 137.7 142.7 146.71 4.4 5.8 3.7 2.81 17.61 Pressed and blown glass 3221 6.81 104.0 103.6 101.41 102.2 102.7 104.31 -2.1 .8 .5 1.51 .61 104.6 102.3 Cement 3241 10.21 97.71 90.2 98.31 97.2 90.9 93.11 2.2 -1.1 -0.3 -4.01 -3.21 93.0 95.7 118.2 118.11 1.1 3.7 -2.3 -0.11 2.41 118.7 115.1 Structural clay products 3251 1.51 114.6 115.3 116.6 120.9 Concrete products 3271 3.01 108.6 107.7 111.61 113.6 109.7 111.9 3.6 1.8 -3.4 2.0 3.91 112.4 112.6 PRIMARY METALS 33 171.31 79.5 80.8 86.91 87.4 87.5 91.51 7.6 .5 .1 4.61 13.31 92.9 94.4 Basic steel and aill prod. 3311 65.71 70.61 72.4 78.21 79.0 77.1 83.71 8.0 1.0 -2.4 8.6 15.61 85.8 86.9 Iron and steel foundries 3321 12.01 73.5 72.8 77.51 78.6 77.8 80.11 6.5 1.4 -1.0 2.9 10.11 79.8 81.0 Primary nouferrous metals 3331 78.11 98.5 100.4 103.61 105.9 102.1 107.6 3.2 2.2 -3.5 5.3 7.1 104.3 117.2 Aluminum 3334) 70.31 80.61 81.1 88.21 88.3 89.4 90.01 8.7 .1 1.3 .61 10.91 90.5 91.0 Nonrerrous foundries 3301 2.11 124.8 125.9 128.81 126.7 129.4 133.6 2.3 -1.7 2.2 3.21 6.2 133.8 133.8 FABRICATED METAL PRODUCTS 341 26.41 122.5 123.9 127.41 130.3 131.7 133.7 2.8 2.3 1.1 1.5 7.91 132.4 131.9 Metal cans 3411 2.21 124.5 120.9 126.8 132.8 132.2 136.51 -0.1 4.7 -0.4 3.3 7.6 135.6 138.8 Hardware 3421 2.31 105.9 106.1 106.31 107.3 110.4 112.21 .1 1.0 2.9 1.71 5.81 111.6 112.2 Structural metal products 3441 .81 117.9 120.0 122.71 125.3 129.0 130.6 2.3 2.1 3.0 1.21 8.8 127.5 129.5 Pasteners 3451 1.61 113.11 116.4 120.61 120.2 120.0 128.21 3.6 -0.3 -0.1 6.81 10.1 123.8 126.5 Metal stampings 346 6.21 108.9 105.3 113.5 116.9 121.7 123.61 7.8 3.0 4.1 1.5 17.4 122.8 123.2 2.1 2.6 7.9 129.7 127.3 NONELECTRICAL MACHINERY 351 28.61 118.8 121.6 122.1 125.3 127.9 131.2 .4 2.6 Engines and turbines 351 2.41 64.71 64.9 67.51 70.7 72.1 75.91 4.1 4.7 2.0 5.31 17.01 78.9 77.1 Pars equipment 3521 2.11 55.21 58.2 59.11 56.2 62.7 63.31 1.6 -5.0 11.6 1.01 8.8 63.3 65.3 Construction equipment 3531 5.1) 76.11 80.0 80.41 80.8 82.7 83.9 .5 .4 2.4 1.41 4.8 84.3 83.2 Metalworking machinery 3541 3.81 119.1 123.4 120.7 122.4 124.7 132.81 -2.2 1.4 1.8 6.61 7.7 132.3 127.5 Special industry machinery 3551 2.01 106.0 110.0 106.91 112.6 105.8 110.31 -2.8 5.3 -6.1 4.31 .31 106.8 108.6 General industrial mach. 3561 4.01 112.31 115.5 113.61 116.2 117.4 121.01 -1.6 2-3 1.1 3.01 4.8 118.5 119.9 8.61 226.1 216.9 Office and computing mach. 3571 2.81 212.01 211.2 216.6 222.6 233.3 229.41 2.6 2.7 4.8 -1.61 Service industry machinery 3581 2.81 112.9 115.4 120.0 121.1 122.4 130.31 4.0 .9 1.1 6.51 12.9 129.7 128.2 ELECTRICAL MACHINESY 361 25.01 131.8 133.4 133.5 136.2 136.9 142.41 .1 2.0 .5 4.01 6.7 141.9 142.0 103.7 101.2 106.61 1.6 2.7 -2.4 5.31 7.2 104.9 101.9 Elect. distribution equip. 3011 1.51 100.71 99.4 101.01 Elect. indust. apparatus 3021 4.31 86.31 87.3 88.51 88.9 90.0 93.31 1.4 .5 1.2 3.71 6.9 91.8 93.3 Household appliances 3631 2.71 94.61 97.2 92.71 92.9 94.3 94.81 -4.6 .3 1.5 .51 -2.4 91.9 92.6 Lighting and wiring prod. 364 2.31 106.3 107.7 107.1 110.2 110.3 111.0 -0.6 2.9 .1 .01 3.0 110.6 106.3 108.0 Radio and TV sets 3651 .91 110.51 109.0 104.11 106.1 107.0 103.71 -4.5 2.0 .8 -3.21 -4.9 102.0 Communication equipment 3001 4.61 170.71 168.8 175.81 175.2 174.4 183.31 4.2 -0.3 -0.5 5.11 8.61 184.6 184.5 Electronic components 3671 6.01 184.9 187.1 189.2 195.4 194.2 203.41 1.1 3.3 -0.6 4.71 8.7 202.7 202.0 116.7 2.6 -0.3 .0 -0.51 1.8 117.9 120.5 TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT 371 31.41 116.0 114.6 117.7 117.3 117.3 Motor vehicles and parts 371 19.31 100.0 97.3 101.7 98.7 100.0 99.91 4.5 -2.9 1.3 -0.11 2.7 103.4 104.0 Aircraft and parts 3721 6.51 159.5 161.2 160.6 164.6 162.3 163.01 -0.4 2.5 -1.4 .41 1.1 160.7 166.6 373 2.11 125.4 132.9 123.2 130.9 133.9 129.21 -7.3 6.3 2.3 -3.51 -2.8 127.0 135.8 Ships and boats INSTRUMENTS 381 5.51 158.3 161.2 163.9 161.4 161.1 168.5 1.7 -1.6 -0.2 4.61 4.5 165.8 171.5 Copiers and related equip. 3861 1.41 138.4 143.2 145.0 136.5 135.7 147.71 1.3 -5.9 -0.6 8.9 3.2 147.3 150.3 MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURES 39 4.11 103.5 100.5 103.1 106.3 103.0 105.8 2.6 3.1 -3.1 2.7 5.3 105.7 104.7 SUPPLEMENTARY GROUPINGS 1.9 2.5 4.7 114.9 115.6 TOTAL, LESS NUCLEAR NONDEFENSE 740.71 108.5 109.9 112.1 113.0 112.3 115.11 .8 -0.6 UTILITY SALES TO INDUSTRY 715.71 104.3 106.3 107.5 107.7 107.1 110.3 1.1 .2 -0.6 3.0 3.8 110.3 110.8 INDUSTRIAL GENERATION 70.11 85.5 86.4 89.6 85.3 85.2 89.6 3.7 -4.8 -0.1 5.2 3.7 88.9 90.9 Note- The electric power use data by industry, shown in billions of kilowatt hours for 1977, are from the Census of Manufactures of that year and from other sources. They are provided for information and are not used as weights to compile the electric power use indexes. All index aggregations, with their detailed components, are calculated from the kilowatt hour data collected in the Federal beserve survey 01 electric power use by industry. The electric power total includes only those major divisions of industries--mining and manufacturing--for which data are collected is this Federal Reserve survey. The total does not include gas or electric utility kilowatt hour use. The supplementary grouping. "Total, less noadefense, nuclear" is shown separately because the nondefense nuclear materials series (part of SIC 2819) accounts for a disproportionally large part or total electric power use. Since the value added proportion for this industry 18 a considerably smaller part of total IP than its share of total electric power use, excluding this component from total power use facilitates comparisons with total IP. 18 Table 9B-continued ELECTRIC POWER USE BY INDUSTRIES Not seasonally adjusted, 1977 = 100 Indexes Percentage Change from Indexes year previous quarter ago 1977 SIC (bil. 1987 1987 1988 1987 1988 1987 1988 Series code KSH) 23 V4 v1 22 03 04 01 02 us 03 SEP OCT PETROLÈUM PRODUCTS 29 34.71 121.3) 129.1 122.31 119.5 117.7 121.6 -5.2 -2.3 -1.5 3.3 -5.8 123.6 117.1 RUBBER & PLASTICS PRODUCTS 30 23.1 143.0 148.2 146.7 144.9 150.1 152.8 -1.0 -1.3 3.6 1.81 3.1 156.4 154.5 Tites 3011 5.41 75.51 79.8 76.01 74.5 80.0 84.21 -4.7 -2.0 7.4 5.31 5.61 86.8 82.7 Rubber products, nec 306 2.21 103.01 104.9 105.7 105.2 107.9 110.91 .8 -0.4 2.5 2.81 5.8 114.6 110.8 Plastics products, nec 307 14.21 192.11 198.2 197.31 195.0 198.6 200.31 -0.4 -1.2 1.9 .81 1.1 204.0 203.8 LEATHER AND PRODUCTS 311 1.4/ 98.5 104.4 97.31 96.1 97.9 104.1 -6.8 -1.2 1.9 6.3 -0.2 109.1 100.5 Shoes 3141 .71 88.4 96.4 87.3 88.3 89.9 96.1 -9.5 1.2 1.9 6.91 -0.3 100.1 90.0 CLAY, GLASS, AND STONE 321 31.41 106.51 109.8 109.21 102.1 109.5 112.2 -0.5 -6.5 7.2 2.41 2.2 113.4 113.1 Plat glass 3211 1.31 121.61 120.8 130.5 136.3 141.4 149.21 2.9 4.5 3.7 5.51 17.6 148.8 148.7 Pressed and blown ylass 322 6.81 104.01 106.3 101.9 99.0 102.8 107.0) -4.1 -2.9 3.8 4.21 .7 109.2 105.0 Cement 3241 10.21 97.71 104.1 102.91 82.1 99.4 100.71 -1.1 -20.2 21.1 1.41 -3.21 99.9 104.8 Structural clay products 3251 1.51 114.61 115.9 118.41 117.7 118.7 118.71 2.2 -0.6 .9 .01 2.4 121.6 116.7 Concrete roducts 3271 3.61 108.01 110.2 111.9 108.4 111.8 114.4 1.6 -3.1 3.1 2.41 3.9 114.6 115.3 PRIMARY MLYALS 331 171.3 79.51 79.1 85.21 88.7 89.6 89.61 7.7 4.1 1.0 .01 13.3 89.8 92.6 Basic steel and mill prod. 3311 65.71 70.61 09.0 74.91 81.6 80.7 80.41 7.7 8.8 -1.1 -0.41 15.61 80.9 83.3 Iron and steel foundries 3321 12.01 73.51 71.5 76.21 76.2 80.8 78.7 6.6 2.6 3.4 -2.61 10.11 81.6 82.6 Primary nonferrous metals 333 78.1 98.51 99.7 106.51 103.9 101.7 106.81 6.8 -2.4 -2.1 5.01 7.21 104.9 117.3 Aluminum 33341 70.31 80.61 81.2 87.11 87.6 90.8 90.21 7.2 .0 3.6 -0.71 11.01 88.0 90.1 Nonferrous foundries 3361 2.1 124.81 124.7 129.0 127.8 129.3 132.41 3.5 -0.9 1.1 2.41 0.11 138.2 137.2 FABEICATED METAL PRODUCTS 341 26.41 122.5 125.9 125.4 129.9 131.9 135.8 -0.4 3.6 1.5 2.9 7.9 137.1 134.0 Metal cans 3411 2.21 124.51 132.9 122.71 128.4 134.5 143.01 -7.6 4.0 4.7 0.31 7.61 144.4 138.8 Hardware 3421 2.31 105.91 107.8 105.51 106.7 110.0 114.11 -2.2 1.1 3.1 3.71 5.81 116.5 114.6 Structural metal products 3441 .81 117.91 120.5 121.9 127.5 126.9 131.11 1.2 4.6 -0.5 3.31 8.8 131.8 130.9 Fasteners 3451 1.01 113.11 117.2 117.61 121.7 120.4 129.11 .4 3.4 -1.0 7.21 10.11 128.2 127.5 Metal stampings 3401 6.21 108.9 103.8 111.41 119.4 123.1 121.8) 7.3 7.2 3.1 -1.01 17.41 124.8 124.6 NONELECTRICAL MACHINERY 351 28.0 118.8) 126.8 120.8 122.3 127.0 136.81 -4.7 1.2 3.8 1.71 7.9 137.0 129.7 Engines and turbines 3511 2.41 64.71 67.5 66.51 69.9 70.9 79.01 -1.5 5.0 1.5 11.41 17.01 80.6 76.5 Farz equipment 3521 2.11 55.21 57.7 57.31 58.4 62.8 62.81 -0.6 2.0 7.5 -0.11 8.81 62.7 62.9 Construction equipment 3531 5.1) 76.11 82.9 79.71 79.5 81.7 86.9 -3.9 -0.3 2.8 6.41 4.81 89.1 83.6 Metalworking machinery 3541 3.81 119.11 126.4 118.5 122.4 123.8 136.1 -6.2 3.3 1.1 9.91 7.7 137.6 130.0 Special industry machinery 3551 2.01 106.01 112.7 105.71 111.3 105.4 113.0 -6.2 5.3 -5.3 7.21 .31 111.9 109.3 General industrial mach. 3501 4.61 112.31 118.7 111.8 114.0 118.0 124.41 -5.8 2.0 3.5 5.41 4.8 125.1 120.9 Office and computing maca. 3571 2.81 212.01 226.7 215.11 212.4 228.0 246.4 -5.1 -1.2 7.4 8.11 8.7 241.4 223.5 Service industry machinery 3581 2.81 112.91 121.5 116.8 117.3 123.1 137.21 -3.8 .4 4.9 11.51 12.91 137.6 130.3 ELECTRICAL MACHINERY 361 25.0 131.8 139.8 131.6 131.8 136.6 149.21 -5.8 .2 3.0 9.21 6.71 151.2 145.5 Elect. distribution eyuip. 3611 1.51 100.71 102.8 100.9 101.1 100.4 110.3 -1.9 .3 -0.7 9.81 7.21 112.3 104.8 Elect. indust. apparatus 3621 4.31 86.31 88.8 86.51 88.1 91.2 95.01 -2.6 1.9 3.5 4.11 6.9 93.7 93.0 Household appliances 3031 2.71 94.61 97.4 90.81 92.8 90.0 95.01 -6.7 2.2 3.5 -1.11 -2.41 90.8 97.1 Lighting and wiring proc. 3641 2.31 100.3 107.9 107.4 109.4 110.6 111.21 -0.4 1.8 1.1 .51 3.11 116.6 110.6 Radio and TV sets 3651 .91 110.51 117.2 101.41 102.2 105.3 111.61 -13.5 .8 3.0 6.01 -4.81 111.5 109.2 Communication equipment 3661 4.61 170.71 183.8 172.9 163.9 172.8 199.71 -5.9 -5.2 5.4 15.61 8.61 202.2 189.6 Electronic components 3671 6.0 184.91 198.5 187.1 185.9 193.9 215.81 -5.8 -0.6 4.3 11.31 8.7) 216.9 208.2 TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT 371 31.41 116.01 119.2 115.21 114.0 118.3 121.4 -3.4 -1.0 3.7 2.01 1.9 124.3 122.1 Motor vehicles and parts 371 19.31 100.01 99.5 99.21 96.9 102.0 102.31 -0.3 -2.3 5.3 .21 2.8 107.2 105.4 Aircraft and parts 372 6.5 159.51 170.5 159.91 156.8 161.4 172.31 -6.2 -2.0 2.9 6.81 1.11 170.8 169.9 Ships and boats 373 2.1 125.4 131.5 121.1 135.7 132.4 127.71 -7.9 12.0 -2.5 -3.51 -2.9 123.6 130.6 INSTRUMENTS 381 5.5 158.31 172.6 160.0 155.1 159.8 180.41 -7.3 -3.1 3.0 12.91 4.51 178.9 174.2 Copiers and related equip. 380 1.4 138.4 148.3 143.5 133.3 135.2 153.0 -3.3 -7.1 1.4 13.21 3.2 151.9 152.6 MISCELLANEOUS MANUPACTULES 391 4.11 103.5 105.0 100.8 104.1 102.7 110.6 -4.0 3.3 -1.3 7.7 5.3 112.9 107.2 SUPPLEMENTARY GROUPINGS TOTAL, LESS NUCLEAR NONDEFENSE 740.7 108.5 112.0 110.8) 111.0 113.3 117.3 -1.1 .2 2.1 3.5 4.7 118.4 116.7 UTILITY SALES TO INDUSTRY 715.7 104.31 108.2 106.0 105.6 108.6 112.3 -2.0 -0.4 2.9 3.4 3.8 113.5 111.7 INDUSTRIAL GENERATION 70.1 85.5 85.8 87.4 87.5 85.5 89.01 2.0 .0 -2.3 4.2 3.8 85.3 88.0 19 Explanatory Note Coverage. The index is a measure of industrial production expressed tion of the seasonally adjusted Industry groupings. A simple aggre- as a percentage of output in a reference period (currently 1977). The gation of the seasonally adjusted individual series within groupings changes in the physical output of the nation's factories, mines, and may not precisely equal the seasonally adjusted groupings, primar- electric and gas utilities are represented by 252 individual series in ily because aggregates are adjusted independently. the index, covering 27 pertinent two-digit codes of the Standard In- dustrial Classification (SIC). For each Individual series, index series Weights. The total index and the various groupings of the compo- relatives are calculated first and are then aggregated in the follow- nent series are currently aggregated on the basis of 1977 value-added ing two ways: (1) market groupings, such as consumer goods, equip- weights, which are shown in the first column of the index tables un- ment, Intermediate products, and materials, from which the der the heading proportions. Value-added weights for 1972 are used seasonally adjusted total index is derived (tables 1A and 1B), and for the 1972-77 period, while 1967 weights are used for the 1967-72 (2) industry groupings, such as SIC two-digit Industries, and major period. The weight years for earlier periods after World War II are aggregates of these groupings, such as durable and nondurable 1963, 1958, 1954, and 1947. The indexes for the various periods are manufacturing, mining, and utilities (tables 2A and 2B). linked to provide the continuous final results expessed in relation to the 1977 comparison year taken as 100. The gross-value-weighted Market groupings. For purposes of analysis the individual industrial product series are expressed in terms of 1982 dollars. output series are grouped into materials, intermediate products, and final products; together, the latter two form the products category. Formula. The symbolic expression for the total index (I) is Materials are industrial output requiring further processing within Industry; intermediate products are expected to become inputs in Σq,P₇7 = 100 = nonindustrial sectors such as construction, farming, and services; 100, Σ977P77 and final products are assumed to enter final use as items of pri- vate consumption, government use, or capital formation. In the index, where q is quantity, p is Census value added per unit of output, t final products are subdivided into consumer goods and equipment. represents the fth period, and 77 denotes base-year values. Timing. A first estimate of output for a month is published about the 15th of the following month. This estimate may be revised in each Reliability. The median of the revisions in total industrial production, of the next three months as new data become available. After the without regard to sign, between the first and fourth estimates is 0.3 fourth month, indexes are not revised further until the time of an percent: that is, in about half of the cases the absolute value of the annual revision or a benchmark revision. The last three benchmark revision from the first to the fourth estimate was less than 0.3 per- revisions were published in 1971, 1976, and 1985. Such revisons are cent. (This calculation used data for the period from January 1972 derived mainly from the quinquennial Census of Manufactures, the to January 1985.) Over the same period, positive changes in the first estimate were confirmed in the fourth estimate (available three quinquennial Census of Mineral Industries, and the Annual Survey of Manufactures, all prepared by the Bureau of the Census, and the months later) about 94 percent of the time. Negative changes in the first estimate were confirmed in the fourth estimate about 85 per- Minerals Yearbook of the Bureau of Mines. cent of the time. Thus the likelihood is high that the first estimate Source data. The indexes of industrial production are constructed for a month will indicate the direction of change in the total index from monthly data of two types: (1) directly measured output in phys- in a reliable manner. However, the magnitude of change as first esti- ical units; and (2) estimates of output derived from data on input, mated typically is revised during the next three months; these revi- sions are based on revised and more complete data sources. The expressed in physical units, adjusted by conversion factors that re- late these inputs to physical output. The data on directly measured estimates for the higher aggregates generally are considered more reliable than the estimates for their individual components. Revisions physical product (pounds, yards, barrels, and the like) are obtained from reports of the Bureau of the Census, the Bureau of Mines, other to the components often offset each other and thereby reduce the government agencies, and trade associations. When suitable monthly size of revisions to the aggregates. data on physical product are unavailable, estimates of physical out- put based on input data (kilowatt hours, production-worker hours) Rounding. Changes shown for index components may not aggregate are used. The hours worked by production workers are collected in to changes for totals because of independent rounding. Percentage the monthly establishment survey of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, changes are calculated from indexes expressed in more digits fol- while data on the kilowatt hours used in industry are collected from lowing the decimal point than shown in their rounded form in the electric utilities by the Federal Reserve Banks. The estimates of input present release. Therefore, percentage changes calculated from the conversion are based mainly on historical relationships that were rounded Indexes may not entirely coincide with the percentage derived from censuses and annual surveys and, when appropriate, changes calculated from unrounded indexes. on more recent cyclical, technological and statistical developments. Users of the index should bear in mind that, especially for the first Literature. Industrial Production-1986 Edition contains a more and second estimates of a given month's indexes, the available detailed description of the index and the procedures used in com- source data are limited and are subject to change in the months fol- piling it, plus a history of its development, a glossary of terms, and lowing their initial receipt as well as in benchmark revisions. a bibliography. The new edition was published in December 1986. To obtain copies of Industrial Production-1986 Edition, write to the Seasonal adjustment. Individual series are seasonally adjusted by Publication Services, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Sys- the X-11 Method II of the Bureau of the Census with the intervention tem, Washington, D.C. 20551. The price of this volume of about 440 analysis technique applied to the series. The seasonal factors cur- pages is $9.00 per copy. Selected data on Industrial production are rently being used are based on data through 1985. The Individual also published monthly In the Financial and Business Statistics sec- series and the major aggregate series are seasonally adjusted In- tion of the Federal Reserve Bulletin. dependently, and the factors for the aggregate series In the sum- mary table and in tables 1 and 2 are reviewed monthly. The seasonally Release date. The industrial production Index is released in mid- adjusted total index is aggregated from the seasonally adjusted mar- month. For the specific date, phone 202-452-3206 about the 11th of ket groupings of the index and may not precisely equal an aggrega- the month. 20 January 17, 1989 MEMORANDUM FOR WHITE HOUSE SENIOR STAFF-DESIGNATES FROM: MICHAEL J. BOSKIN CHAIRMAN-DESIGNATE, CEA mgB SUBJECT: Economic Information Flow Yes No Range of Alternatives: 1. Similar format for daily releases. 2. More information on the underlying quality and reliability of the statistics. 3. More information on the sensitivity of financial markets to past fluctuations in the indicators. 4. More information on the relationship between changes in particular indicators and trends in the rest of the economy. 5. Weekly, biweekly, and/or monthly summaries, perspectives and briefing memoranda. Withdrawal/Redaction Sheet (George Bush Library) Document No. Subject/Title of Document Date Restriction Class. and Type 05. Memo From Michael Boskin to POTUS-Elect 1/18/89 P-5 Re: Priority Economic Issues w/Respect to Japan (2 pp.) Collection: Record Group: Bush Presidential Records Office: Chief of Staff, White House Office of Series: Sununu, John, Files Open on Expiration of PRA Subseries: Cabinet Agencies Files (Document Follows) WHORM Cat.: By sp (NLGB) on 4/10/08 File Location: Boskin (CEA - 1989) Date Closed: 12/1/2004 OA/ID Number: 29186-006 FOIA/SYS Case #: 1998-0004-F[1] Appeal Case #: Re-review Case #: 2005-0426-S Appeal Disposition: P-2/P-5 Review Case #: Disposition Date: AR Case #: MR Case #: AR Disposition: MR Disposition: AR Disposition Date: MR Disposition Date: RESTRICTION CODES Presidential Records Act - [44 U.S.C. 2204(a)] Freedom of Information Act [5 U.S.C. 552(b)] P-1 National Security Classified Information [(a)(1) of the PRA] (b)(1) National security classified information [(b)(1) of the FOIA] P-2 Relating to the appointment to Federal office [(a)(2) of the PRA] (b)(2) Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of an P-3 Release would violate a Federal statute [(a)(3) of the PRA] agency [(b)(2) of the FOIA] P-4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or (b)(3) Release would violate a Federal statute [(b)(3) of the FOIA] financial information [(a)(4) of the PRA] (b)(4) Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial P-5 Release would disclose confidential advice between the President information [(b)(4) of the FOIA] and his advisors, or between such advisors [a)(5) of the PRA] (b)(6) Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of P-6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of personal privacy [(b)(6) of the FOIA] personal privacy [(a)(6) of the PRA] (b)(7) Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement purposes [(b)(7) of the FOIA] C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed of (b)(8) Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of gift. financial institutions [(b)(8) of the FOIA] (b)(9) Release would disclose geological or geophysical information PRM. Removed as a personal record misfile. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20500 January 18, 1989 MEMORANDUM FOR PRESIDENT-ELECT GEORGE BUSH GOVERNOR JOHN SUNUNU, CHIEF OF STAFF-DESIGNATE FROM: MICHAEL J. BOSKIN CHAIRMAN-DESIGNATE, mpr COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SUBJECT: Priority Economic Issues with Respect to Japan We are entering a critical period for world trade and growth due to accumulated trade frictions combined with uncertainty and extreme anxiety over "EC '92." EC '92 also raises the spectre of the world degenerating into a series of trade blocks (Europe, North America, East Asia, etc.) which would have substantially free trade internally, but risks still greater external tariff and non-tariff barriers than exist today. This would be a tragedy, as it would reduce world trade, slow world economic growth, and ravage the economies of the third world. While it may be in the short-term economic interests of any one entity, it surely works against long-term interests of all. The United States should seek in all venues, from the Uruguay Round of GATT, to the economic summits, and others, to lead the world toward freer and fairer trade. This will require tremendous internal domestic political courage and talent, as the forces for protection are mobilized by narrow industry or region, while the forces for general growth, and the lower prices for consumers brought about by world-wide competition, are far more diffuse and less powerful in the various world legislatures. Therefore, a fundamental point to get across to Japan's leaders on the President-elect's visit is that Japan must join the United States in attempting to lead the world toward free, fair trade. This is in the long-run interests of the Japanese economy, not just that of the United States and other countries. Further, the rest of East Asia is very concerned about being forced de facto into some sort of economic alliance with Japan. - 2 - The two most important direct steps, especially because they would be visible, would be to lower (1) tariff barriers to agricultural imports dramatically and (2) non-tariff barriers to non-agricultural imports. Leading candidates are tariffs on rice and wheat, where internal prices in Japan are 8-1/2 and 10 times the world market prices respectively. The Japanese will insist that it is necessary for such extreme protection of their agriculture to ensure food self-sufficiency (they recall the deprivation they experienced in World War II). Food self-sufficiency is not the same as food security. Even a modest roll back of the tariffs would get rid of their least efficient producers, lower prices internally in Japan which would be tremendously popular with the bulk of the Japanese, who are rice consumers, and various agreements could be made which would guarantee food security (reserves, guarantees from the surplus countries: United States, Canada, Argentina, etc.). Non-tariff barriers are informal, usually reflecting cultural practice or institutional biases. Opportunities for reductions under government control are procurement practices of government and semi-official agencies (universities, NTT), especially those affecting super computers, telecommunications, and possibly construction. Withdrawal/Redaction Sheet (George Bush Library) Document No. Subject/Title of Document Date Restriction Class. and Type 06. Memo From Michael Boskin to John Sununu 1/18/89 P Re: My Technical Economic Support Role for Budget Summit Group (1 pp.) Collection: Record Group: Bush Presidential Records Office: Chief of Staff, White House Office of Series: Sununu, John, Files Open on Expiration of PRA Subseries: Cabinet Agencies Files (Document Follows) WHORM Cat.: By gp (NLGB) on 5/12/05 File Location: Boskin (CEA - 1989) Date Closed: 12/1/2004 OA/ID Number: 29186-006 FOIA/SYS Case #: 1998-0004-F[1] Appeal Case #: Re-review Case #: 2005-0426-S Appeal Disposition: P-2/P-5 Review Case #: Disposition Date: AR Case #: MR Case #: AR Disposition: MR Disposition: AR Disposition Date: MR Disposition Date: RESTRICTION CODES Presidential Records Act [44 U.S.C. 2204(a)] Freedom of Information Act [5 U.S.C. 552(b)] P-1 National Security Classified Information [(a)(1) of the PRA] (b)(1) National security classified information [(b)(1) of the FOIA] P-2 Relating to the appointment to Federal office [(a)(2) of the PRA] (b)(2) Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of an P-3 Release would violate a Federal statute [(a)(3) of the PRA] agency [(b)(2) of the FOIA] P-4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or (b)(3) Release would violate a Federal statute [(b)(3) of the FOIA] financial information [(a)(4) of the PRA] (b)(4) Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial P-5 Release would disclose confidential advice between the President information [(b)(4) of the FOIA] and his advisors, or between such advisors [a)(5) of the PRA] (b)(6) Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of P-6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of personal privacy [(b)(6) of the FOIA] personal privacy [(a)(6) of the PRA] (b)(7) Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement purposes [(b)(7) of the FOIA] C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed of (b)(8) Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of gift. financial institutions [(b)(8) of the FOIA] (b)(9) Release would disclose geological or geophysical information PRM. Removed as a personal record misfile. January 18, 1989 MEMORANDUM FOR GOVERNOR JOHN SUNUNU CHIEF OF STAFF-DESIGNATE FROM: MICHAEL BOSKIN mms CHAIRMMAN-DESIGNATE, CEA SUBJECT: My Technical Economic Support Role for Budget Summit Group In addition to the items in the previous memo, Treasury Secretary Brady and OMB Director Darman have asked me (I would normally be the lead anyway in the so-called Troika-the Administration's economic forecasting group) to work with, coordinate and lead their professional staffs on numerous items (capital gains, interest rates, etc.) for use in the February 9 proposals and to develop a similar role over the next several months in the period between the hypothetical budget summit beginning and the usual summer forecast, which technically operates as the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings trigger. Therefore, I do believe it would signal some additional credibility by including a statement in the President-elect's letter naming his Budget Negotiating Team, such as "with technical economic support from Michael Boskin, CEA Chairman. Withdrawal/Redaction Sheet (George Bush Library) Document No. Subject/Title of Document Date Restriction Class. and Type 07. Memo From Michael Boskin to John Sununu 12/16/88 P/S Re: My Understanding of the Arrangements Agreed to by the VP Prior to My Acceptance of the Job (4 pp.) Collection: Record Group: Bush Presidential Records Office: Chief of Staff, White House Office of Series: Sununu, John, Files Open on Expiration of PRA Subseries: Cabinet Agencies Files (Document Follows) WHORM Cat.: By If (NLGB) on 12/12/07 File Location: Boskin (CEA - 1989) Date Closed: 12/1/2004 OA/ID Number: 29186-006 FOIA/SYS Case #: 1998-0004-F[1] Appeal Case #: Re-review Case #: 2005-0426-S Appeal Disposition: P-2/P-5 Review Case #: Disposition Date: AR Case #: MR Case #: AR Disposition: MR Disposition: AR Disposition Date: MR Disposition Date: RESTRICTION CODES Presidential Records Act - [44 U.S.C. 2204(a)] Freedom of Information Act - [5 U.S.C. 552(b)] P-1 National Security Classified Information [(a)(1) of the PRA] (b)(1) National security classified information [(b)(1) of the FOIA] P-2 Relating to the appointment to Federal office [(a)(2) of the PRA] (b)(2) Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of an P-3 Release would violate a Federal statute [(a)(3) of the PRA] agency [(b)(2) of the FOIA] P-4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or (b)(3) Release would violate a Federal statute [(b)(3) of the FOIA] financial information [(a)(4) of the PRA] (b)(4) Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial P-5 Release would disclose confidential advice between the President information [(b)(4) of the FOIA] and his advisors, or between such advisors [a)(5) of the PRA] (b)(6) Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of P-6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of personal privacy [(b)(6) of the FOIA] personal privacy [(a)(6) of the PRA] (b)(7) Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement purposes [(b)(7) of the FOIA] C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed of (b)(8) Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of gift. financial institutions [(b)(8) of the FOIA] (b)(9) Release would disclose geological or geophysical information PRM. Removed as a personal record misfile. OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT-ELECT WASHINGTON, D.C. 20270 December 16, 1988 MEMORANDUM FOR GOVERNOR JOHN SUNUNU CHIEF OF STAFF-DESIGNATE FROM: MICHAEL J. BOSKIN DESIGNEE, CHAIRMAN OF THE PRESIDENT'S eDul COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISORS SUBJECT: MY UNDERSTANDING OF THE ARRANGEMENTS AGREED TO BY THE VICE PRESIDENT PRIOR TO MY ACCEPTANCE OF THE JOB The Vice President and Bob Teeter independently suggested that I review these issues with you, which I had planned to do anyway so that there would be no misunderstanding. I consider each of these to be vital to my proper role on behalf of a Bush presidency and believe that you will see these issues in the same way. I thought that reviewing them briefly with you would prevent any future misunderstandings as well as arming you in dealings with any third parties. I. The Role of the CEA and the CEA Chairman 1. The Council of Economic Advisors will be a full member of all policy committees and councils relating in any way whatsoever to economics. In the current administration, this includes the Economic Policy Council, Domestic Policy Council (of which the current CEA Chairman is a member), the Quad Committee, the Troika, etc.; all interagency committees dealing with any aspect of economic policy (at lower levels I would designate another member or some other person to participate). To quote the Vice President in my meeting prior to my acceptance, "Anything I would have wanted to be included as part of I will." We agreed to it this way because the organization of policymaking in the White House has not yet been decided. Will we stick with a similar format to the existing White House, e.g. Cabinet Councils, or change it? The CEA Chairman is occasionally invited to National Security Council meetings when the subject matter indicates that would be useful. Governor John Sununu Page Two This extends to legislative strategy with respect to any component of economic policy, though admittedly I, or my representative, would be there mostly to provide technical support about what might be traded away in terms of the economy or other aspects of economic policy, not as experts on legislative strategy. The CEA Chairman (or a member when appropriate) will attend the daily White House Senior Staff meetings, or their equivalent. 2. I will have complete and direct access to the President any time it is necessary and regular meetings with the President. Clearly, the President does not need an economics briefing every day as he needs a national security briefing. But some regular meeting, perhaps every other week, would be very useful. 3. While the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors will not be a member of the Cabinet (a decision he made some time ago, with respect to the national security advisor, the director of the CIA, the UN Ambassador, CEA Chairman, etc.), the Chairman of the President's Council of Economic Advisors will be the chief economic advisor to the President and will attend Cabinet meetings. Of course, the Treasury Secretary is the administration's chief economic spokesman, and other Cabinet members will lead on other issues, e.g. Dick Darman on the budget. It is important for the President to receive the highest quality and most timely economic advice. It is also important to avoid the appearance which damaged the Reagan administration of the President being separated from or unconcerned with economic advice. 4. I will have the major role in selecting the other two members of the Council of Economic Advisors. I interpret this as a combination of recruiting, prioritizing and "soft veto. " This was agreed to by Craig Fuller just prior to my seeing the Vice President, as he indicated this was sort of a "given." It would do much for the CEA and the image of the Bush administration -- relative to previous administrations, but especially the Reagan administration -- to get two other members who are distinguished economists, as well as meet all the other constraints that presidential appointments must have, as well as assisting us politically with various constituencies. Governor John Sununu Page Three 5. It is essential that I be part of the budget negotiating team to be named "immediately after the inauguration." This would probably be normal in any event, but the economy, forecasts, assumptions, etc., will not only be at center stage, but we will have to have the capacity to respond very quickly at hand. Obviously, I will follow your and Darman's lead (the economic forecasts have been the primary issue raised in many of my, and Darman's, sessions on the Hill). 6. The CEA Chairman will continue to be an integral part of and attendee at both the annual ministerial meetings and economic summits (although obviously in a supporting role for the Treasury Secretary, the President, etc.). 7. The CEA will continue its current roles in International Economic Policy Coordination and Third World Debt Policy. 8. The CEA will continue its role in International Organizations, including the Chairman's traditional position as head of the OECD Economic Policy Committee, CEA's role as head of the U.S. delegation to other committees, especially Working Party 1. II. Issues Related to Running the CEA 1. It was agreed that I would receive the same arrangement, other than Cabinet status, that Sprinkel currently has. These include no staff or budget cuts. Because of the incredibly long hours a CEA Chairman puts in, like Sprinkel, I will have a car and driver portal to portal as well as White House transportation agency priority transportation once at the office (as I understand it, the list of White House executive office cars usually includes Chief of Staff, Deputy Chief of Staff, OMB, National Security Advisor and CEA Chairman). I don't mean to sound petty, but this gives me an extra 45 minute margin per day, and some flexibility in where I live. 2. Privileges in the Executive Dining Room in addition to the staff dining room. Governor Sununu Page Four 3. Permission to travel first class internationally. I have to Chair the Economic Policy Committee at the OECD, etc. Sprinkel tells me that usually the State Department, which finances these trips, pays business class air travel and he arranges to have the difference paid by giving a speech the same day, SO long as it does not violate any laws, the difference being reimbursed via a 501C3 organization. I would like this option as well. I do not mean to violate any spirit of teamwork or collegiality by getting this all down in print and up front. In my meeting with the Vice President he was very agreeable and said yes to some general things. I wanted to make sure that no one misinterprets them while we are doing more serious things. I look forward to working with you on a policy agenda -- something into which we will have to put a lot of work soon, and in which, I suspect, we will have very similar views.