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01. Cable
Re: 011435Z JUN 90 (3 pp.)
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(b)(1)
C
02a. Memo
To Richard Porter
1/24/91
(b)(1)
S
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CA
OFFICE OF CABINET AFFAIRS STAFFING MEMORANDUM
Date: 6-8-90
Due by: FYI
Subject: Cable re: British View on Climate Change
From:
Holly Williamson
ACTION CONCUR FYI
ACTION CONCUR FYI
BATES HOLIDAY
JACKSON
DANZANSKY
MCBEE
ADAIR
SCHALL
BUCHHOLZ
WETHINGTON
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YALE
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EVANS
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WHITE HOUSE STAFFING MEMORANDUM
6/7/90
DATE:
ACTION/CONCURRENCE/COMMENT DUE BY:
SUBJECT:
"CABLE RE BRITISH VIEW ON CLIMATE CHANGE"
ACTION FYI
ACTION FYI
VICE PRESIDENT
MCCLURE
SUNUNU
NEWMAN
SCOWCROFT
PORTER
DARMAN
ROGICH
CARD
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DRAFT TALKING POINTS
ON GLOBAL CLIMATE
I.
FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE
THE FIRST NEGOTIATING SESSION
[Source: Reinstein testimony 3-5-91]
0
The United States hosted the first session of the negotiations for a framework
convention on February 4-11, with one hundred and one countries from every region of
the world and representatives from over 20 international organizations participating. 68
NGOs also participated.
0
This session was the first of four or five sessions of the negotiations established
under the auspices of the United Nations General Assembly by Resolution 45/212.
o
We agreed to organize two working groups, one which will consider all sources and
sinks of all greenhouse gases, and one which will consider mechanisms of implementation
of the convention.
0
We adopted on Rules of Procedure which emphasize decision making by consensus
and which will allow for NGO participation.
0
We also discussed ways to increase the participation of developing countries. The
U.S. was the first country to contribute to a voluntary trust fund established to support
the participation of developing countries.
0
The U.S. helped to produce an informal paper outlining the scientific, technical
and economic research needs which the convention should address.
0
We also reached agreement on the important role the IPCC will play in
responding to the technical needs of the negotiations.
II.
FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE
FUTURE SESSIONS
[Source: Reinstein testimony, 3-5-91]
0
The next session is tentatively scheduled for the first two weeks of June in Nairobi.
o
The following sessions will meet in September, December, and in 1992, as
necessary.
0
The goal, as articulated in 45/212 is to complete the negotiations so that the
framework convention will be opened for signature during the UN Conference on
Environment and Development in June 1992 in Brazil.
III.
FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE
NEGOTIATION PRINCIPLES
[Source: Reinstein testimony, 3-5-91]
o
First, we believe we must take a comprehensive approach to climate change, one
which considers all greenhouse gases and their sources and sinks.
0
Second, we must not wait for all uncertainties to be resolved, but must pursue
economically efficient and cost effect actions - already justified on other grounds - which
will limit net greenhouse gas emissions.
o
Third, we must continue to pursue aggressively scientific and economic research;
systematic observation; collection, archiving and distribution of information; and
technology development in order to resolve uncertainties and build a solid foundation for
innovative responses.
0
Fourth, we must recognize the special needs of the developing countries and design
mechanisms for assisting them in securing the scientific and technical tools necessary for
their fullest participation in a truly global effort.
0
Fifth, any response must be global. An effective response will require that all
nations participate and meet obligations that are appropriate to their circumstances.
IV.
ELEMENTS OF A FRAMEWORK CONVENTION
[Source:
Reinstein testimony, 3-5-91]
0
A framework convention could commit all nations to develop national strategies,
similar to our Climate Change Strategy and National Energy Strategy, recognizing that
the appropriate measures available to different countries will vary depending on their
social, environmental, and economic circumstances.
0
A framework convention should include a general commitment to promote financial
assistance to developing countries to study and address climate change. Existing
bilateral and multilateral financial-assistance mechanisms and, in particular, the newly
established Global Environmental Facility in the world Bank are the appropriate
mechanisms for providing such assistance.
o
A framework convention could include technology transfer, which is essential to
any effective global response. Implementation of technology transfer will need to be
considered, in the context of specific commitments to action. Special efforts will need
to be made to match appropriate technologies to needs.
o
A framework convention should seek to remove barriers to effective commercial
development and transfer of technology and should ensure that intellectual property
rights are fully protected so as to provide the incentives necessary for continual
development of new technology.
V.
COMPREHENSIVE APPROACH
0
Why is a CO2 target alone inappropriate?
[Source: Reinstein Qs & As, House 3-5-91, Senate 2-21-91]
(1) We believe a comprehensive approach, addressing the sources and sinks of
all greenhouse actions. concentrating on just one greenhouse gas ignores the possibility
of other, more cost-effective responses aimed at other greenhouse gases. The focus of
environmental concern should be the net effect on radiative forcing, not emissions of any
one gas. In fact, CO2 is the weakest greenhouse gas per kilogram.
(2) Focussing narrowly on CO2 could unintentionally increase emissions of
other greenhouse gases. For example, an early response to a CO2 target would be fuel-
switching from coal to natural gas. This would reduce CO2 emissions but increase
methane emissions from distribution leaks of natural gas. Methane is a much more
potent greenhouse gas than CO2 and even small methane leaks can offset large CO2
reductions. This problem could be important in many nations.
(3) Any response to climate change must be global if it is to be effective. Most
proposal regarding a CO2 target would impose that target on industrialized countries
immediately but delay its application to developing countries. Yet emissions are growing
much faster in the developing world. Imposing restrictions only on industrialized nations
is likely to be undercut by the relocation of emissions intensive activities to other
countries.
(4) Imposition of restrictions on a few nations could cause significant
distortions in the international competitiveness of those nations.
(5) The economic consequences of such targets are extremely uncertain.
Projections of emissions are heavily dependent on expected growth rates. Should
economic growth prove to be faster than expect, emissions will probably also grow faster
than expected and meeting a target could prove to be prohibitively expensive, with
potentially serious consequences for the world economy, including the development
aspirations of developing countries.
(6) Climate change will occur over the long term. Any response must be
sustainable over the long term and encourage all nations to develop plans of action that
will carry us beyond the turn of the century. Most targets and timetable, however, focus
only on the next ten to fifteen years.
(7) The environmental benefits of such targets are unknown because of scientific
uncertainties about the strength, rate, and timing of climate change from a given change
in GHG emissions. Given such uncertainties, we believe a flexible approach which
focuses initially actions justified for other reasons is prudent.
(8) Rigidly imposing identical obligations does not adequately recognize the
diversity of national circumstances. We must instead seek ways to build on the unique
strengths of individual nations in devising the international response to climate change.
0
Why the comprehensive approach?
Policy formulations need to match the underlying ecological systems they address.
The optimal design for the climate change convention, and for any policy responses,
would be a "comprehensive" approach that addresses all relevant trace gases, their
sources and sinks. This approach has been discussed by United States officials in
several papers. [Source: A Comprehensive Approach to Addressing Potential Climate
Change, A Report of the Interagency Task Force on Comprehensive and Incentives
Approaches to Climate Change, January 1991, p. 12]
0
In keeping with its commitment to a comprehensive approach, the United States
has undertaken a set of policy measures that together constitute a comprehensive
approach, addressing several radiatively active trace gases (RATGs), sources and sinks,
and will keep U.S. contributions to radiative forcing at 1987 levels through the year 2000.
[Source: A Comprehensive Approach to Addressing Potential Climate Change, A Report
of the Interagency Task Force on Comprehensive and Incentives Approaches to Climate
Change, January 1991, p. 12-13]
0
The international reality: integration of physical and social science is making
clear that a comprehensive approach to the complex global system is essential, addressing
all the relevant trace gases, their sources and sinks. [Source: A Comprehensive
Approach to Addressing Potential Climate Change, A Report of the Interagency Task
Force on Comprehensive and Incentives Approaches to Climate Change, January 1991,
p. 12]
0
In August the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated in its
Overview: "A comprehensive strategy addressing all aspects of the problem and reflecting
environmental, economic and social costs and benefits is necessary." [Source: IPCC
Overview, August 1990, p. 14 and A Comprehensive Approach to Addressing Potential
Climate Change, A Report of the Interagency Task Force on Comprehensive and
Incentives Approaches to Climate Change, January 1991, p. 12]
o
In November, the government ministers at the Second World Climate Conference
(SWCC) declared: "We recommend that in the elaboration of response strategies, over
time, all greenhouse gases, sources and sinks be considered int he most comprehensive
manner possible." [Source: Ministerial Declaration of the SWCC, paragraph 14, and A
Comprehensive Approach to Addressing Potential Climate Change, A Report of the
Interagency Task Force on Comprehensive and Incentives Approaches to Climate Change,
January 1991, p. 12]
0
What is the comprehensive approach?
[Source: A Comprehensive Approach to Addressing Potential Climate Change, A
Report of the Interagency Task Force on Comprehensive and Incentives Approaches to
Climate Change, January 1991, p. 2]
0
It is an approach to structure consideration of climate change issues ---
scientific, economic, and policy -- on a comprehensive basis, addressing all the human
interactions with the climate system.
0
It stands in contrast to the "piecemeal" approach currently dominating
discussion, which focuses narrowly on emissions of one gas, carbon dioxide (CO2),
primarily from the energy sector, and omits other critical factors.
0
It considers all of the significant human-influenced "radiatively active trace
gases" (RATGs) that affect climate:
Carbon dioxide (CO2)
Methane (CH4)
Nitrous Oxide (N20)
Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), and
related substances
Tropospheric Ozone (03) and its precursors:
Nitrogen oxides (NOx)
Carbon monoxide (CO)
Volatile organic compounds (VOCs or NMHCs)
0
It focuses on "net emissions" (sources less sinks), the important variable for
determining atmospheric concentrations.
VI. ACTIONS THAT ARE JUSTIFIED IN THEIR OWN RIGHT
[Source: Reinstein testimony, 3-5-91]
0
Phasing out chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and other ozone depleting compounds
that are also greenhouse gases faster than required by the Montreal Protocol.
0
Encouraging energy efficiency and reducing greenhouse gas emissions by capping
sulfur dioxide emissions at substantially reduced levels while allowing utilities the
flexibility to meet this cap in the most economically efficient manner possible.
0
Reducing air pollutants which are greenhouse gases or greenhouse gas precursors,
such as volatile organic compounds and methane.
0
Initiating a program to plant a billion trees a year.
0
Speeding the adoption of energy efficient technologies and practices in homes and
businesses.
0
Promoting the use of, and research into, non-fossil fuel energy sources.
VII. ROLE OF THE NATIONAL ENERGY STRATEGY IN THE GLOBAL CLIMATE
0
The National Energy Strategy (NES) includes a number of actions that, although
taken principally for other energy related reasons, will have significant environmental
benefits, including curbing the buildup of future U.S. emissions of greenhouse gases.
[Source: Reinstein testimony, 3-5-91]
o
Greenhouse gas emission reductions would be produced by the National Energy
Strategy. These reductions are achieved by: (1) greater use of renewable energy and
nuclear power and improved energy efficiency in both the electricity and the
transportation sectors; and (2) other actions already taken by the United States (for
example, the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990). With all of these initiatives, the
United States' contribution to potential global warming would, in the National Energy
Strategy scenario, remain at or below present levels for the foreseeable future. While the
accuracy of any future projections diminishes as the time horizon under consideration
lengthens, the National Energy Strategy will significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions
relative to any current policy baseline. [Source: Executive Summary, National Energy
Strategy, p. 19]
o
If no actions were taken, emissions in the U.S. from one important greenhouse gas,
CO2, are projected to grow by 80% by the year 2030, according to one part of the NES
scenario. Likewise, emissions of other greenhouse gases, such as methane, nitrous oxides
and carbon monoxide, are projected to grow as well. [Source: Department of Energy
Qs & As to Waxman 2-26-91 and Reinstein testimony, 3-5-91]
o
Without the NES, greenhouse gas emissions, as measured in terms of global
warming potential, are likely to increase by over 2.82 billion tons of CO2 equivalents.
This would be a 38.4 percent increase over the 1990 levels by 2030. [Source: Department
of Energy Qs & As to Waxman, Reinstein testimony, 3-5-91]
o
Carbon monoxide and Carbon dioxide. After 2015, increased use of alternative
fuels, energy efficiency, renewable and nuclear energy will result in these emissions
leveling off and remaining stable through 2030. [Source: Department of Energy Qs &
As to Waxman, Reinstein testimony, 3-5-91]
o
Methane. NES actions as well as EPA's regulations controlling methane from
landfills, will reduce methane emissions below current levels through 2015. Further after
2015 annual methane emission from energy sources will continue to decline. [Source:
Department of Energy Qs & As to Waxman, Reinstein testimony, 3-5-91]
o
Nitrogen oxide and volatile organic compounds, precursors to tropospheric ozone
that could lead to potential warming are held to levels that are about the same or below
the 1990 levels and decline from 2015 to 2030. [Source: Department of Energy Qs &
As to Waxman, Reinstein testimony, 3-5-91]
VIII. COMMITMENTS AND POLICES THAT OTHER NATIONS HAVE ADOPTED OR
ARE PLANNING TO ADOPT TO REDUCE EMISSIONS OF GHGS
0
Many other industrialized nations have announced their intention to stabilize CO2
emissions by the turn of the century. A few of these, like Austria, Australia, Denmark,
Germany and new Zealand, have stated further that they hope to reduce CO2 emissions
by the Year 205. The baseline year used varies somewhat between countries. Baseline
year used varies somewhat between countries. some of these nations, such as France and
Japan, have adopted per capita targets that allow for continued growth in their overall
emission. All major CFC producers have also committed under the Montreal Protocol
to phase-out their production of ozone depleting substances, which also contribute to
climate change. [Source: Reinstein Qs & As 2-21-91 House of Representatives, 3-5-91
Senate]
0
Canada proposes actions on several RATGs in several sectors, and terms the
strategy a "comprehensive response" [Source: Canada's Green Plan (1990), p.97-108].
Other nations have announced proposals that address not only CO2 but also other
RATGs. "Climate Change Policy in the Netherlands and Supporting Measures,"
Netherlands Ministry of Housing, Physical Planning and the Environment, D.G. for
Environment, November 1990 (addressing CO2 sources and sinks, CFCs, and CH4);
Cabinet Study Commission, Bonn, German, November 7, 1990 (addressing CO2 and
CH4); "Action Program to Arrest Global Warming," Decision made by the Council of
Ministers for Global Environmental Conservation, Government of Japan, October 23,
1990 (addressing CO2 sources and sinks, CH4, N20). [Source: "A Comprehensive
Approach to Addressing Potential Climate Change," A Report of the Interagency Task
Force on Comprehensive and Incentive Approaches to Climate Change, footnote 6, p. 13.]
0
None of these countries has set quantified emission targets for any of the other
greenhouse gases, such as methane, or for total global warming potential, except
Australia, Iceland, and Canada. Meeting their CO2 targets could still allow an increase
in emissions of methane e and other greenhouse gases more potent than CO2. Moreover,
no developing or Eastern European nation, other than Poland, has set any emission
targets. This is particularly significant in that these countries will probably account for
over half of the greenhouse gas emissions by early in the next century. [Source:
Reinstein Qs & As 2-21-91 House of Representatives, 3-5-91 Senate]
0
A review by EPA found that over twenty government have issued statements of
intent to stabilize or reduce CO2 emissions by various target dates, most often the year
2000. Six countries intend to reduce CO2 emissions by 20 percent or more by 2005 or
later years. The most aggressive targets have been set by Germany, which plans to
achieve a 25 percent reduction by 2005 and an 80 percent by 2050 for both CO2 and
methane. A few countries have made their intentions contingent on international
agreement or on economic conditions. [Source: EPA Qs & As 2-19-91]
IX. INVENTORY OF CO2 AND OTHER GREENHOUSE GASES, BOTH
WORLDWIDE AND FOR THE US
0
The Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee recognized a global emissions
inventory as high priority need for the IPCC to pursue during the next year. The IPCC
Bureau met on February 15, 1990 to discuss the issue and requested that the U.K.
develop a plan for review by the full IPCC in March. EPA has provide over $150
thousand to support the development of a manual and workshop through the OECD.
The Department of Energy h as also provided support. We expect that the report of
February 18-21 workshop will enable the IPCC to move forward quickly during the
coming months.
[Source: EPA Qs & As 2-19-91]
o
The most important anthropogenic greenhouse gases worldwide, weighted according
to their climate forcing potential are CO2 (approximately 55%), followed by methane
(15%), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) (24%), and nitrous oxide (6%). Warming is also
caused by the direct and indirect effects of other greenhouse gases such as carbon
monoxide, and the interactive effects of other trace gases such as tropospheric ozone
(produced by the chemical interactions of emissions of nitrogen oxides and volatile
organic compounds) although the worldwide inventory is not yet accurate enough to
compare their forcing potential to the gases above. [Source: IPCC, Climate Change:
The IPCC Scientific Assessment, p.xx]
X.
US GLOBAL CLIMATE RESEARCH PROGRAM (USGCRP) FY 1992
o
The highest priority scientific and policy-related issue for the USGCRP in FY 1992
is whether, and to what extent, human activities are changing or will change the global
climate system.
[Source: Our Changing Planet: The FY 1992 U.S. Global Change Research Program,
A Supplement to the US President's Fiscal Year 1992 Budget, p.9]
o
The President's FY 1992 Budget requests $1186 million for the USGCRP. This
represents an increase of $232 million, or 24.2 percent, over the FY 1991 level. [Source:
Our Changing Planet: The FY 1992 U.S. Global Change Research Program, A
Supplement to the US President's Fiscal Year 1992 Budget, p.3]
o
The Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences (CEES) relied on the results
of the Scientific and Impacts Assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) in developing the FY 1992 Program. [Source: Our Changing Planet:
The FY 1992 U.S. Global Change Research Program, A Supplement to the US President's
Fiscal Year 1992 Budget, p.9]
o
The USGCRP identified four high priority Integrating Themes for FY 1992:
(1) Climate Modeling and Prediction
(2) Global Water and Energy Cycles
(3) Global Carbon Cycle
(4) Ecological Systems and Population Dynamics
[Source: Our Changing Planet: The FY 1992 U.S. Global Change Research
Program, A Supplement to the US President's Fiscal Year 1992 Budget, p.2]
o
Using the integrating themes, the collective efforts of government and academic
scientists focus on:
(1) Developing an improved predictive capability of the Earth as a coupled system
with enhanced regional resolution.
(2) Improve the understanding of the water and energy cycles by focusing on the
role of clouds, oceans, terrestrial ecosystems, and changes in sea level.
(3) Improve the understanding of the carbon cycle by quantifying sources and
sinks, the processes that control them, and how the processes may influence and be
influenced by global change.
(4) Improve the capacity to assess the effects of global change at regional scales
on intensively managed and natural terrestrial and oceanic ecosystems.
[Source: Our Changing Planet: The FY 1992 U.S. Global Change Research Program,
A Supplement to the US President's Fiscal Year 1992 Budget, p.2]
CONFIDENTIAL
2nd DRAFT 3/11/91
SUBMISSION OF THE UNITED STATES
The United States welcomes this opportunity to provide its
views on the elements to be included in a framework convention
on climate change. We believe that the Legal Measures paper of
Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) provides a good starting point for discussions
within the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC). The
work of the INC has also been facilitated by United Kingdom's
submission of a draft framework convention that reflects the
consensus elements of the IPCC Legal Measures paper in the form
of a legal text. We offer the following views on elements that
should be included in a framework convention on climate change:
Preamble
The IPCC Legal Measures paper and the UK draft convention
contain many appropriate preambular clauses. In particular,
the preamble should:
(a) acknowledge that climate change is a common concern of the
international community;
(b) recall the relevant resolutions of the United Nations
General Assembly, particularly resolution 45/212;
(c) recall relevant declarations, such as the Ministerial
Declaration of the Second World Climate Conference, the Bergen
and Noordwijk Ministerial Declarations, the Declaration of the
1990 Houston Economic Summit and principle 21 of the
Declaration of the United Nations Conference on the Human
Environment (Stockholm 1972);
(d) recognize the interdependence of environmental protection
and economic growth, and the need to pursue strategies of
global stewardship that advance both these goals;
(e) recognize, welcome and encourage measures that are being
taken or have already been taken at the national, regional and
international levels that help address issues of climate
change, including relevant national actions and actions taken
pursuant to the Vienna Convention for the Protection of the
Ozone Layer, the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete
the Ozone Layer and other international agreements;
CONFIDENTIAL
DECL: OADR
DECLASSIFIED
PER DOS WAIVER, November 6, 2015
By MM NARA, Date 2/22/2018
CONFIDENTIAL
- 2 -
(f) recognize that different nations have different social,
economic and other circumstances, including different sets of
net emissions, and will accordingly need flexibility in the
choice of any response options;
(g) acknowledge the important scientific work that has already
taken place, particularly that of the IPCC and other
international bodies (e.g., the World Meteorological
Organization (WMO), the United Nations Environment Program
(UNEP), the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU),
the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP) and the
Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC)
(h) endorse further scientific research and systematic
observation and further study of possible social and economic
impacts of climate change, and of measures that might be used
to address them;
(i) recognize that strategies to understand and address climate
change will be most environmentally effective and most
economical if they address all sources, sinks and reservoirs of
greenhouse gases and their precursors comprehensively, are
based on, and continually reevaluated in light of, relevant
scientific, technical, and economic considerations, and are as
equitable and economically efficient as possible.
(j) recognize that each greenhouse gas has a different impact
on climate change, as well as other important impacts on the
environment, all of which need to be taken into account in
selecting sound response strategies;
(k) stress the need for all nations to participate in any
international responses to climate change, in accordance with
the means at their disposal and their capabilities;
(1) reaffirm that where there are threats of serious or
irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty should
not be used as a reason for postponing measures, commensurate
with the extent and likelihood of the adverse impacts and
reflecting the costs and benefits of such measures, to
understand, limit, reduce, facilitate adaptation to, and, as
appropriate, prevent the adverse impacts of climate change;
Definitions
Following are definitions of terms used in this submission,
which could be included in the convention:
CONF IDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
- 3 -
"Climate" means the average weather (including its appropriate
components, such as temperature, precipitation and wind) over a
period of years, together with the natural variations of those
components.
"Climate change" means the variation in the climate beyond what
is attributable to natural variability.
"Impacts" means effects on human health, economic activity,
social systems, water resources, agriculture, sea levels, and
natural and managed ecosystems.
"Greenhouse gases" means gases which alter the radiative
transmissive properties of the atmosphere, principally through
impeding the emission of long-wave terrestrial radiation.
"Greenhouse gas precursors" means substances that interact in
the atmosphere to produce greenhouse gases indirectly or that
prolong the atmospheric lifetimes of greenhouse gases.
"Greenhouse gases and their precursors" means greenhouse gases
and greenhouse gas precursors.
"Sinks" means all anthropogenic and biogenic activities and
processes that remove greenhouse gases and their precursors
from the atmosphere.
"Sources" means all anthropogenic and biogenic activities and
processes that lead to greenhouse gases and their precursors
being emitted into the atmosphere.
"Reservoirs" means storage media for greenhouse gases and their
precursors.
"Net emissions" means emissions from sources minus removals by
sinks.
"Greenhouse warming potential index ('GWP')" is an index that
defines the time-integrated warming effect due to the release
of a unit mass (1 kg) of a given greenhouse gas relative to
that of carbon dioxide.
"Cooperative arrangement" means any arrangement whereby any
group of two or more countries cooperates together to achieve
the objectives of the convention or any subsidiary instrument.
General Obligations
The framework convention should provide mechanisms for
developing the scientific, technical, economic and
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environmental bases for formulating and implementing, as
appropriate, measures to address the potential modification of
climate caused by greenhouse gases and the possible adverse
impacts therefrom. It should require the Parties to develop
and pursue, in accordance with the provisions of the convention
and to the extent deemed desirable in light of the scientific,
technical, economic, and environmental bases outlined above,
appropriate measures that prevent, limit, reduce, or facilitate
adaptation to climate change. The Parties, in developing and
taking such measures, should address the net emissions of all
greenhouse gases and their precursors comprehensively, taking
into account the best available greenhouse warming potential
index ("GWP") and other environmental impacts of the gases.
The framework convention should enable the Parties to fashion
economically efficient and effective implementation, including
through the use of cooperative arrangements. It should also
recognize and encourage actions taken by nations that help
address climate change, including national actions and actions
under other international agreements.
To these ends, the Parties should:
(a) cooperate in systematic observations, research and
information exchange to better monitor, understand, and predict
changes in the global climate, their impacts, potential
responses thereto A and the costs and benefits of such responses;
for a variety of reasons and which
(b) adopt measures which are justified in their own right that lso
could have the effect of limiting or adapting to the adverse
impacts of climate change;
(c) develop and make public national inventories of net
emissions, using an agreed methodology that is developed in
light of the work of the IPCC;
(d) establish national strategies to address and facilitate
adaptation to climate change and make public an accounting of
the elements of the strategy and the effect of such strategy on
net emissions;
(e) base any additional responses on thorough assessments, by
the IPCC and other competent international bodies, of climate
change and potential responses to that change;
(f) cooperate in promoting public awareness of climate change;
(g) encourage the development and transfer of relevant
technologies, as well as the provision of technical and
financial assistance, to facilitate the fulfillment by the
developing countries of their obligations;
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(h) cooperate with competent international bodies.
The article on general obligations should include a
provision in which the Parties agree that, in developing and
implementing measures pursuant to the convention or any
subsidiary instrument, they should take into account other
types of environmental impacts that such measures could have.
In addition, the convention should provide the opportunity for
Parties to meet their obligations under the convention and any
subsidiary instrument through bilateral, multilateral or
regional cooperative arrangements. The Convention and
subsidiary instruments should also recognize and count the
effect on net greenhouse gas emissions of relevant actions
taken under national policy and other international agreements.
Institutions
The articles of the UK draft convention establishing a
conference of the parties and a secretariat (UK draft articles
6 and 7) are generally acceptable. However, whereas the UK
draft provides that the interim secretariat would be provided
by UNEP, we believe that both UNEP and WMO should provide
interim secretariat assistance.
Research, Systematic Observation, and Information Exchange
A strong program of research, systematic observation and
information exchange must be a cornerstone of the framework
convention. An aggressive effort to obtain better information
is an environmentally essential strategy that will help the
international community to tailor response strategies that are
appropriate, effective and sustainable over the long term.
The research and systematic observation article (Article 3)
and information exchange article (Article 4(1)) of the UK draft
convention provide a good starting point for convention text on
research, systematic observation and information exchange. The
Parties' obligations should extend to scientific, economic and
social research, and the Parties should consider both the
social and economic costs and benefits of changes to the global
climate and of potential responses to those changes. The
information exchange provisions of the framework convention
should include information on net emissions inventories,
emissions and removal rates for various sources and sinks,
means of measuring emissions and sink removal, and national
strategies, including actions taken, costs, and effectiveness.
During the first meeting of the INC, scientists from
several delegations held informal meetings, under the
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chairmanship of Dr. A. Baede of the Netherlands delegation, to
develop an inventory of priorities for research, systematic
observations, assessments and information exchange. This
informal work could provide a useful starting point for the
preparation of annex to the framework convention concerning
research and systematic observation and information exchange.
Assessment and Consideration of Response Measures
Specific commitments for emissions reductions should not be
included in the framework convention, because of the need for
flexibility in nations' choices of their own measures.
Further, there is a real need for further analysis of the costs
and benefits of international responses, at the same time that
prudent steps may be taken by nations even in the face of great
uncertainty. Accordingly, the framework convention should
include an article on assessment and response measures that is
modelled on Article 6 of the Montreal Protocol on Substances
that Deplete the Ozone Layer and that requires the Parties to
periodically assess the available scientific, technical, and
economic information with respect to:
(a) the effects of emissions of greenhouse gases and their
precursors on the climate;
(b) the possible impacts of such effects; and
(c) possible response measures that could be taken at the
national, regional, and/or international levels.
As part of this work, the Parties should be required, as
necessary, to update and to make public, using a standardized
methodology developed in light of the work of the IPCC and
other competent international bodies, national inventories of
all sources and sinks of greenhouse gases and their precursors.
In light of this work, the Parties would be obligated:
(a) to update national, regional, and international strategies
and policies to limit, reduce, facilitate adaption to, and as
far as appropriate, to prevent the adverse impacts of climate
change, in accordance with the provisions of the convention and
any subsidiary instrument;
(b) to update programs for research, systematic observation,
information exchange, and the development and transfer of
technology and knowledge;
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(c) to consider and undertake any additional action that may be
appropriate in light of the purposes of the convention.
In the assessment and consideration of response measures, and
in particular, in the development of national, regional and
international response strategies, the Parties should take into
account the best available GWP. In addition, the Parties
should consider, in consultation with the IPCC and other
relevant international bodies, whether the GWP should be
revised at some future date.
Development and Transfer of Technology
Article 4(2) of the UK draft convention addresses the
development and transfer of technology and is generally
acceptable. It provides that the Parties, consistent with
their national laws, regulations and practices, shall cooperate
in promoting, directly or through competent international
bodies, the development and transfer of technology and
knowledge relevant to scientific and technical research. The
UK draft provides for such cooperation through the supply of
necessary equipment and facilities for research and monitoring
and through appropriate training of scientific and technical
personnel.
Settlement of Disputes and Compliance
We note the suggestion in the IPCC Legal Measures paper
that dispute settlement provisions similar to those in the
Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer might
be employed in the framework climate convention. This
suggestion is reflected in Article 11 of the UK draft
convention and in Annex III thereto. We believe that it is
important that all parties comply fully with the obligations
that they undertake in the framework convention and any
subsidiary instrument thereto. Dispute settlement provisions
are one means of achieving such objective, as are other
mechanisms, such as the compliance procedures developed by the
parties to the Montreal Protocol. To be most effective,
however, such procedures and mechanisms should be tailored to
specific obligations contained in a given agreement.
Accordingly, these questions should be considered after the INC
has reached agreement on the substantive obligations to be
included in the framework convention.
Final Clauses
The final clauses contained in the UK draft convention
(Articles 8-10 and 12-21) are generally acceptable. However,
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we believe that the procedures for entry into force of
protocols, amendment of protocols, and withdrawal from
protocols, as well as the provisions relating to the proposal,
adoption, and entry into force of annexes to protocols, should
be left to any such protocol. This would permit the Parties to
tailor those provisions to any particular protocol.
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THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
March 4, 1991
MEMORANDUM FOR THE GLOBAL CHANGE STRATEGY TASK FORCE
FROM:
D. ALLAN BROMLEY
Allan
SUBJECT:
Review of the U.S. Submission of Elements to be Included in
a Framework Convention on Climate Change
Attached for your review and comment is a draft of the U.S. paper describing the
elements that the U.S. would like to have included in a Framework Convention on
Climate Change. As you will recall, this was derived from the IPCC Legal Measures
Paper of Working Group III, which was reviewed several times this past year through
the DPC Global Change Working Group.
Please forward your comments or clearance to Nancy Maynard of my office by c.o.b.,
Thursday, March 7. 1991 (phone, 456-6202; fax, 395-3719).
UNCLASSIFIED when confidential attachment is removed
Confidential Attachment
UNCLASSIFIED UPON
REMOVAL OF CLASSIFIED
ATTACHMENTS
MB
7/31/17
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DRAFT 2/28/91
SUBMISSION OF THE UNITED STATES
The United States welcomes this opportunity to provide its
views on the elements to be included in a framework convention
on climate change. We believe that the Legal Measures paper of
Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) provides a good starting point for discussions
within the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC). The
work of the INC has also been facilitated by United Kingdom's
submission of a draft framework convention that reflects the
consensus elements of the IPCC Legal Measures paper in the form
of a legal text. We offer the following views on elements that
should be included in a framework convention on climate change:
Preamble
The IPCC Legal Measures paper and the UK draft convention
contain many appropriate preambular clauses. In particular,
the preamble should:
(a) acknowledge that climate change is a common concern of the
international community;
(b) recall the relevant resolutions of the United Nations
General Assembly, particularly resolution 45/212;
(c) recall relevant declarations, such as the Ministerial
Declaration of the Second World Climate Conference, the Bergen
and Noordwijk Ministerial Declarations, the Declaration of the
1990 Houston Economic Summit and Principle 21 of the
Declaration of the United Nations Conference on the Human
Environment (Stockholm 1972);
(d) note the measures that have already been taken at the
national, regional and international levels, in particular
those taken pursuant to the Vienna Convention for the
Protection of the Ozone Layer and the Montreal Protocol on
Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer;
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(e) acknowledge the important scientific work that has already
taken place, particularly that of the IPCC and other
international bodies (e.g., the World Meteorological
Organization (WMO), the United Nations Environment Program
(UNEP), and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission
(IOC);
(f) endorse further scientific research and systematic
observation and further study of possible social and economic
impacts of climate change, and of measures that might be used
to address them;
(g) recognize that strategies to address climate change will be
most effective if they address all sources, sinks and
reservoirs of greenhouse gases and their precursors
comprehensively, are based on relevant scientific, technical,
and economic considerations, and are as equitable and
economically efficient as possible.
(h) stress the need for all nations to participate in any
international responses to climate change, in accordance with
the means at their disposal and their capabilities;
(i) reaffirm that where there are threats of serious or
irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty should
not be used as a reason for postponing measures, commensurate
with the extent and likelihood of the threatened damage, to
mitigate and, as far as practicable, to prevent the adverse
impacts of climate change;
(j) recognize the special circumstances of developing countries;
Definitions
Following are definitions of terms used in this submission,
which could be included in the convention:
"Climate" means the average weather (including its appropriate
components of temperature, precipitation and wind) over a
period of years, together with the natural variations of those
components.
"Climate change" means the variation in the climate beyond what
is attributed to natural variability.
"Impacts" means effects on human health, natural and managed
ecosystems, water resources, agriculture, social systems,
economics and sea levels.
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"Greenhouse gases" means gases which alter the radiative
transmissive properties of the atmosphere, principally through
impeding the emission of long-wave terrestrial radiation.
"Greenhouse gas precursors" means substances that interact in
the atmosphere to produce greenhouse gases indirectly or that
prolong the atmospheric lifetimes of greenhouse gases.
"Greenhouse gases and their precursors" means greenhouse gases
and greenhouse gas precursors.
"Sinks" means all anthropogenic and biogenic activities and
processes that remove greenhouse gases and their precursors
from the atmosphere.
"Sources" means all anthropogenic and biogenic activities and
processes that lead to greenhouse gases and their precursors
being emitted into the atmosphere.
"Reservoirs" means storage media for greenhouse gases and their
precursors.
"Net emissions" means emissions from sources minus removals by
sinks.
"Greenhouse warming potential index ('GWP')" is an index that
defines the time-integrated warming effect due to the release
of a unit mass (1 kg) of a given greenhouse gas relative to
that of carbon dioxide.
"Market-based incentives" are mechanisms that apply market
forces to achieve environmental policy goals.
"Cooperative arrangement" means any arrangement whereby any
group of two or more countries cooperates together to achieve
the objectives of the convention or any protocol thereto.
General Obligations
The framework convention should provide the scientific,
environmental, technical, and economic bases for developing and
implementing, as appropriate, strategies to address the
potential modification of climate caused by greenhouse gases
and the possible adverse impacts therefrom. It should require
the Parties to develop and take appropriate measures, in
accordance with the provisions of the convention and any
protocol thereto, to limit, reduce, adapt to and, as far as
practicable, prevent the adverse impacts of climate change.
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The Parties, in developing and taking such measures, should
address the sources, sinks and reservoirs of all greenhouse
gases and their precursors comprehensively, taking into account
the most recent IPCC greenhouse warming potential index
("GWP"), and should provide for economically efficient and
effective implementation, particularly through the use of
market-based incentives and cooperative arrangements.
To these ends, the Parties should:
(a) cooperate in systematic observations, research and
information exchange to better monitor, understand, and predict
changes in the global climate and potential responses thereto;
(b) adopt measures which are justified in their own right that
could have the effect of limiting or adapting to the adverse
impacts of climate change;
(c) develop national inventories of net emissions, using an
agreed methodology developed by the IPCC;
(d) establish national strategies to address and adapt to
climate change;
(e) base any additional responses on thorough assessments of
climate change and potential responses to that change; and
(f) cooperate in promoting public awareness of climate change;
(g) encourage the development and transfer of relevant
technologies, as well as the provision of technical and
financial assistance, to facilitate the fulfillment by the
developing countries of their obligations;
(h) cooperate with competent international bodies.
The article on general obligations should include a
provision in which the Parties agree that, in developing and
implementing measures pursuant to the convention or any
protocol thereto, they should take into account the extent to
which any such measures could cause other types of
environmental degradation. In addition, the convention should
provide the opportunity for Parties to meet their obligations
under the convention and any protocol thereto through
bilateral, multilateral or regional cooperative arrangements.
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Institutions
The articles of the UK draft convention establishing a
conference of the parties and a secretariat (UK draft articles
6 and 7) are generally acceptable. However, whereas the UK
draft provides that the interim secretariat would be provided
by UNEP, we believe that both UNEP and WMO should provide
interim secretariat assistance.
Research, Systematic Observation, and Information Exchange
The research and systematic observation article (Article 3)
and information exchange article (Article 4(1)) of the UK draft
convention provide a good starting point for convention text on
research, systematic observation and information exchange. The
Parties' obligations should extend to both scientific and
economic research, and the Parties should consider both the
social and economic costs and benefits of changes to the global
climate and of potential responses to those changes.
During the first meeting of the INC, scientists from
several delegations held informal meetings, under the
chairmanship of Dr. A. Baede of the Netherlands delegation, to
develop an inventory of priorities for research, systematic
observations, assessments and information exchange. This
informal work could provide a useful starting point for the
preparation of annex to the framework convention concerning
research and systematic observation and information exchange.
Assessment and Consideration of Response Measures
Rather than specific commitments for emissions reductions,
the framework convention should include an article on
assessment and response measures that is modelled on Article 6
of the Montreal Procotol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone
Layer and that requires the Parties to periodically assess the
available scientific, technical, and economic information with
respect to:
(a) the effects of emissions of greenhouse gases and their
precursors on the climate;
(b) the possible impacts of such effects; and
(c) possible response measures that could be taken at the
national, regional, and/or international levels.
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As part of this work, the Parties should be required, as
necessary, to update, using a standardized methodology
developed by the IPCC, national inventories of all sources and
sinks of greenhouse gases and their precursors.
On the basis of this work, the Parties would be obligated:
(a) to update national, regional, and international strategies
and policies to limit, reduce, adapt to, and as far as
practicable, to prevent the adverse impacts of climate change,
in accordance with the provisions of the convention and any
protocol in force for a Party;
(b) to update programs for research, systematic observation,
information exchange, and the development and transfer of
technology and knowledge;
(c) to consider and undertake any additional action that may be
required for the achievement of the purposes of the convention.
In the assessment and consideration of response measures, and
in particular, in the development of national, regional and
international response strategies, the Parties should take into
account the most recent IPCC GWP. In addition, the Parties
should consider, in consultation with the IPCC, whether to
recommend to the IPCC that the GWP be revised at some future
date.
Development and Transfer of Technology
Article 4(2) of the UK draft convention addresses the
development and transfer of technology and is generally
acceptable. It provides that the Parties, consistent with
their national laws, regulations and practices, shall cooperate
in promoting, directly or through competent international
bodies, the development and transfer of technology and
knowledge relevant to scientific and technical research. The
UK draft provides for such cooperation through the supply of
necessary equipment and facilities for research and monitoring
and through appropriate training of scientific and technical
personnel.
Settlement of Disputes and Compliance
We note the suggestion in the IPCC Legal Measures paper
that dispute settlement provisions similar to those in the
Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer might
be employed in the framework climate convention. This
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- 7 -
suggestion is reflected in Article 11 of the UK draft
convention and in Annex III thereto. We believe that it is
important that all parties comply fully with the obligations
that they undertake in the framework convention and any
protocol thereto. Dispute settlement provisions are one means
of achieving such objective, as are other mechanisms, such as
the compliance procedures developed by the parties to the
Montreal Protocol. To be most effective, however, such
procedures and mechanisms should be tailored to specific
obligations contained in a given agreement. Accordingly, these
questions should be considered after the INC has reached
agreement on the substantive obligations to be included in the
framework convention.
Final Clauses
The final clauses contained in the UK draft convention
(Articles 8-10 and 12-21) are generally acceptable. However,
we believe that the procedures for entry into force of
protocols, amendment of protocols, and withdrawal from
protocols, as well as the provisions relating to the proposal,
adoption, and entry into force of annexes to protocols, should
be left to any such protocol. This would permit the Parties to
tailor those provisions to any particular protocol.
CONF IDENTI
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THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
January 23, 1991
MEMORANDUM FOR THE DOMESTIC POLICY COUNCIL
FROM:
RICHARD W. PORTER
Executive Secretary
SUBJECT:
Framework Convention on Climate Change
An options paper on questions relating to the negotiations for
a framework convention on global change is attached. The paper has
been prepared for the DPC by the Global Change Working Group
chaired by Dr. Allan Bromley, Assistant to the President for
Science and Technology and Director of the Office of Science and
Technology Policy.
Due to time constraints, I am circulating this paper for your
consideration in lieu of the usual meeting of DPC principals. By
9:00 a.m. Thursday, January 24, please provide: (1) the response
you would recommend to each of the three questions; and (2) your
comments and clearance on Appendix B (a document proposed for
release at the first negotiating session outlining U.S.
accomplishments relating to climate change).
I apologize for the short turn around, but it is dictated by
several factors including the printer's deadline. Thank you for
your cooperation under these circumstances.
Responses should be sent (Room 231, OEOB) or faxed (456-2223)
to me.
Attachment
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
January 22, 1991
MEMORANDUM FOR THE DOMESTIC POLICY COUNCIL
FROM:
The Global Change Working Group
SUBJECT:
Framework Convention on Climate Change
ISSUE:
Negotiators representing the United States at the first
negotiating session of the Framework Convention on Climate Change
on February 4, 1991 require guidance on three issues:
(1) Aspects of the strategy U.S. representatives should
follow during the negotiations;
(2) Whether we should press other nations to adopt the
"comprehensive approach;" and
(3) Whether a document outlining U.S. accomplishments
should be released at the first negotiating session.
BACKGROUND:
1.
The General Situation.
Formal negotiations on a framework convention will take place,
over the next 18 months, under the auspices of the United Nations
General Assembly. Although differences exist regarding the
purpose of the Convention, it is our understanding that the
Convention should establish an institutional basis for
international cooperation on climate change including the conduct
of scientific research and the exchange of climate change
information. It will also provide the legal and logistical
structure for future protocols or annexes (if any) containing
specific commitments. The Convention is expected to be ready for
signing at the June 1992 U.N. Conference on Environment and
Development in Brazil.
President Bush has invited other nations to meet in Washington
for the first negotiating session. This is scheduled to take
place February 4 to 14, 1991. The first negotiating session will
focus on organizational and procedural issues. This paper
provides background on the question of climate change and
addresses three issues that need to be considered prior to the
negotiations.
2.
Previous International Action.
The World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations
Environment Programme set up the Intergovernmental Panel on
2
Climate Change (IPCC) in 1987 as a vehicle to assess scientific
information pertaining to climate change, impacts of such change,
and possible strategies to assist in responding to potential
changes. The U.S. participated in and accepted the activities of
the IPCC.
At the Second World Climate Conference in November 1990, the IPCC
adopted an interim report. This report addressed four major
areas of climate change: (1) research; (2) the impacts of
potential change; (3) response strategies; and (4) legal measures
to implement response strategies, including possible elements of
a framework convention on climate change. This report forms the
basis for the negotiations.
The Second World Climate Conference agreed that the scientific
conclusions set out by the IPCC reflect the international
consensus of scientific understanding of climate change,
including these key points:
O
"Emissions resulting from human activities are
substantially increasing atmospheric concentrations of
greenhouse gases. These increases will enhance the
natural greenhouse effect, resulting on average in an
additional warming of the Earth's surface."
"Without actions to reduce emissions, global warming is
predicted to reach 2 to 5 degrees C over the next
century, a rate of change unprecedented in the past
10,000 years."
O
"The warming is expected to be accompanied by a sea
level rise of 65 cm (+/- 35 cm) by the end of the next
century."
Substantial scientific uncertainty continues regarding
the details of climate change. To narrow the
uncertainties, on-going research is being conducted in
high priority areas, such as oceans, clouds, carbon
cycle, polar ice sheet, and sea ice.
Some policy makers do not share the certainty reflected by the
predictions published in the IPCC report, because of the
unsettled state of the scientific analysis.
3.
The Science of Climate Change.
Studies show that concentrations of greenhouse gases have
increased. However, the causes of this increase--including both
natural and human factors, as well as the way these may affect
regional climate patterns and the earth's temperature regulation
process--continue to be unclear. Certain gases, such as carbon
3
dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and chloroflurocarbons (CFC's),
increase the retention of heat in the atmosphere.
Natural processes are responsible for twenty times the amount of
greenhouse gas fluctuations than those caused by human
activities. For instance, even though nitrous oxide is emitted
by the man-made process of burning fossil fuels and using
nitrogen fertilizers, it is also emitted by the natural aerobic
decomposition of organic matter in oceans and soils and by
bacteria. Nevertheless, significant changes in atmospheric
concentrations are being caused by human-related activities,
largely reflecting increases in industrialization.
The earth adapts to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations
through a complex system that naturally regulates global
temperatures. One result of this natural regulatory process may
be changing climate patterns and higher average temperatures.
This system is not only affected by "sources" of greenhouse gas
emissions, but also by "sinks" that sequester concentrations of
these gases. The system also includes the radiation of energy
into space.
Although scientific research on the relation between the emission
of greenhouse gases and climate change has focussed on global
warming, this is only one of several interrelated climate
phenomena that may be affected by such emissions. Other climate
phenomena that may be affected include the patterns and amounts
of precipitation, the patterns and severity of storms, as well as
the mean sea level. Each of these climate phenomena may involve
significant fluctuations in temperature over wide regions of the
earth's surface. It is important to note that the effects of
climate change may vary by region. Changes in temperature and
precipitation may cause adverse effects in some areas of the
world while resulting in beneficial effects in other areas.
Computer models have been developed to predict the effects on
climate of different concentrations of greenhouse gases.
Nevertheless, these computer models are not yet able to reflect
the natural system of temperature regulation with much accuracy.
As a result, scientists are not able to agree on the magnitude,
spatial distribution, and timing of any climate changes caused by
increased concentrations of greenhouse gases and the effect of
natural mitigating factors. The computer models are particularly
poor guides to regional variations of climate changes. These
changes are the basis upon which economic impact studies are
made, and are key to the development of responsible policy
decisions.
4.
The Economics of Climate Change.
Cost-benefit analyses of proposals for reducing emissions compare
the costs of such proposals with any benefits they would produce
4
by altering climate processes. These benefits would equal the
total costs of projected climate changes (often called the costs
of not acting) only for proposals that promise to stabilize the
climate. Most emission limitations that have been proposed
internationally would reduce natural and human emissions only
slightly and would therefore have only a minor effect on climate
processes.
Economic studies of climate change issues have only just begun
and little is yet known. For example, there are few quantitative
analyses of the cost of sea level rise. Nor has there been much
study of the impact that future climate changes may have on the
agriculture, forestry and fishing industries, which are sensitive
to climate variations. These industries amount to only 3 percent
of the U.S. GNP, but they represent a much larger part of the
economies of developing nations.
Studies based on historical data regarding carbon dioxide
emissions suggest that stabilization or small reductions would
impose costs on the order of 1 percent of GNP for industrialized
countries by the turn of the century and that those costs would
rise over time. Other studies based on analyses of particular
technologies suggest that, in principle at least, costs could be
more modest. Advances in technology could lower baseline
emissions, costs of reduction, and the tendency of costs to rise
over time.
5. Energy Issues in Climate Change.
Even though human activities cause only a fraction of greenhouse
gas emissions, international talks have focused on reducing man-
made emissions, especially emissions from the use of fossil fuel.
The U.S. produced almost 6 billion tons of carbon dioxide from
fossil fuels in 1988. Because this was about 25 percent of all
man-made carbon dioxide emissions world-wide, the U.S. has become
a large target for criticism from other countries despite our
positive record on overall greenhouse gas emission control. It
is worth noting that the U.S. also produces about 25 percent of
the world's GNP, so that its share of man-made carbon dioxide
emissions compares with its share of production.
THE CLIMATE CONVENTION NEGOTIATIONS:
A framework convention establishes general obligations and
procedures for carrying out these obligations. Specific
commitments are usually included in subsequent annexes or
protocols to a convention. Nevertheless, several countries are
pressing to include specific obligations for targets and
timetables for stabilizing emissions of certain gases in the
convention or in protocols negotiated simultaneously with the
convention.
5
We have taken the position that such commitments are premature
and should be negotiated, if at all, only after signing a
framework convention. Even then commitments should be made only
if analyses demonstrate that they are necessary and will result
in net benefits. The model is the Vienna Convention (March 22,
1985) on ozone depletion and the subsequent Montreal Protocol
(September 16, 1987). We are uncertain of the level of support
the U.S. will receive on our position and may have to reconsider
if other countries fail to support us.
1.
The Process.
The climate change negotiations will be carried out through the
auspices of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee, serviced
by a United Nations Secretariat. Following the first session
here in Washington, most of the negotiating sessions will be held
at U.N. facilities in Geneva, with one or possibly more sessions
in Nairobi. Sessions will be one to two weeks in length, and
will be held every three or four months through 1991. Sessions
will be scheduled as needed in 1992. Jean Ripert of France is
likely to be elected to chair the negotiations.
2.
The U.S. Delegation.
The U.S. delegation for the first session will be headed by
Curtis "Buff" Bohlen, Assistant Secretary of State for Oceans and
International Environmental and Scientific Affairs. The
alternate head of delegation will be Robert A. Reinstein, Deputy
Assistant Secretary of State for Environment, Health and Natural
Resources. Reinstein will function as negotiator for this and
subsequent sessions. The negotiating team is expected to include
12-15 representatives of the agencies with relevant energy,
environmental, scientific and economic expertise and interest in
this issue. Federal government agency involvement with the
framework convention is being coordinated by the Department of
State. White House coordination of the negotiations is being
provided by the Office of Science and Technology Policy.
3.
Agenda for the First Session.
Although a draft agenda has not yet been circulated by the U.N.
Secretariat, the following work-plan is anticipated for the nine-
day session:
Organizational matters (1 day);
Initial country statements (2 days);
Establishment of subgroups and preparation of
the legal negotiating text (5 days); and
Other matters such as defining the
relationship between the IPCC and these talks
(1 day).
6
Countries will propose text they wish to see included in the
convention. Language not agreed to by all the parties will be
bracketed. Little attempt will be made to resolve differences
about the text during the first session.
The U.S. will propose several non-controversial provisions,
particularly in the area of scientific and economic research and
cooperation. More importantly, as discussed in question 2 below,
the U.S. will seek to convince other countries that they should
adopt the comprehensive approach in the text of the framework
agreement.
A summary of other countries' positions on the global change
issue and their approach to the framework convention negotiations
is attached in Appendix A.
4.
Elements for Possible Inclusion in the Framework Convention.
In addition to certain non-controversial elements of the
framework convention identified by the IPCC, we expect several
controversial elements to be proposed as well.
-- Targets and Timetables: Several countries will try to
force a debate about targets and timetables for reductions of
greenhouse gas emissions, particularly carbon dioxide emissions
from the burning of fossil fuels, over the next 18 months. All
other OECD countries, except Turkey, have made statements arguing
that such obligations should be undertaken now, either as part of
the convention itself or in protocols negotiated simultaneously
with the convention.
-- The Precautionary Principle: Many countries will suggest
putting an article on the "Precautionary Principle" into the
framework convention. As yet, there is no commonly accepted
definition of this principle. Some believe it merely reiterates
the need to prevent pollution. Others hold that it imposes a
burden of proof, i.e., that an activity cannot be undertaken
unless proof can be shown that it will not harm the environment.
-- Financial assistance: Consistent with the Houston
Economic Declaration, a general commitment to promote financial
assistance for developing countries will be negotiated in the
framework convention. Developing countries will undoubtedly
propose that this include a commitment to provide "new and
additional" funding, a commitment that we oppose. The United
States will argue that the newly established Global Environmental
Facility in the World Bank is the appropriate mechanism through
which any multilateral assistance should be processed.
-- Development and transfer of technology: The developing
countries have often called for technology transfer on a
"preferential and noncommercial basis." Although this language
7
raises the problem of protection of intellectual property rights,
there is a wide range of technologies for which this issue does
not arise. U.S. negotiators intend to highlight the value of
existing cooperation programs.
QUESTION 1:
Should the following strategy be adopted to guide
U.S. representatives at the first negotiation
session?
1.
Propose specific language on scientific cooperation and
monitoring consistent with the comprehensive approach.
2.
Oppose specific targets and timetables for greenhouse
gas emission reduction--particularly carbon dioxide.
3.
Oppose extreme statements of the "Precautionary
Principle."
4.
Oppose commitment to new and additional financial
assistance.
5.
Explore ways of promoting technology transfer that will
be advantageous to the U.S., taking full account of
market forces and the protection of intellectual
property rights.
6.
Highlight steps already taken to show U.S. commitment
to act. (See Question 3 for further elaboration).
Over the past year, the U.S. has taken a prudent approach to the
climate change issue. Other countries have been willing to
commit themselves to specific targets and timetables for reducing
greenhouse gas emissions with little regard, in some cases, for
either the cost or the lack of information necessary to craft an
effective plan.
The U.S. is widely perceived as entering these negotiations in an
isolated position, since it is the only major developed country
that has not committed itself to a timetable for achieving
specific greenhouse gas reductions. Therefore, to buttress the
prudence of our approach we will need to have a well-defined
negotiating plan to take with us to the table in February.
The U.S. can bolster its position on targets and timetables by
pointing out the scientific uncertainties as well as the likely
costs, administrative complexities, and possible trade problems
that could arise from the imposition of large taxes on the carbon
content of fossil fuels--the primary means for achieving major
reductions. We have solid economic and scientific research
already under way and partially completed that could be used to
back up this position.
To address the doubt expressed by other countries concerning the
sincerity of our commitment on the climate change issue, we may
wish to consider signals that would show the U.S. commitment to
act. Indeed, we are already taking steps--albeit steps justified
for other reasons such as energy security, clean air and other
8
environmental concerns--that address climate issues and that can
be used to improve the U.S. bargaining position. (Question 3 sets
forth a specific proposal in this regard).
Pros:
O
This strategy highlights steps already taken that
demonstrate U.S. leadership, and underscores the prudence of
the U.S. approach for addressing global climate change.
O
The positions outlined are consistent with past U.S.
negotiations on the issue.
O
The strategy emphasizes the importance of reliable
scientific and economic research as the basis of any action.
O
Avoiding specific commitments on timetables and levels of
reduction until subsequent protocols provides more time to
gather the scientific and economic data necessary to make
informed decisions.
O
The approach is supported by some other countries (including
Canada and some developing countries) and by some
environmental leaders.
Cons:
O
This strategy may be considered a delaying tactic by other
countries, by environmental groups and by the media.
O
If our position is seen as too obstructionist, it may reduce
our negotiating leverage on this issue.
O
The media is likely to continue its criticism of the
Administration on this issue.
QUESTION 2:
Should U.S. negotiators press other nations to
adopt the "comprehensive approach" in the
Framework Convention?
Over the past year, the U.S. has actively promoted a
"comprehensive approach" to greenhouse gases. Under this
approach, all gases would be placed on an equal footing based on
a scientifically determined "greenhouse potential index" an
index taking into account the intrinsic molecular greenhouse
efficiency of each gas, its average residence time in the
atmosphere and other relevant considerations.
This approach is preferable because: (1) other gases than carbon
dioxide are greenhouse gases, some of which are less costly to
9
regulate (such as CFC's); (2) it would ensure that developing
nations contribute to the international effort; (3) it lays the
groundwork for a market approach (nationally and internationally)
to reduce emissions at the lowest possible cost; (4) it avoids
problems inherent in attempting to develop individual protocols
for each greenhouse gas, and (5) it focuses attention on the
potential for expanding sinks that sequester greenhouse gas
emissions.
Pros:
0
Promotes an innovative approach to the issue of climate
change enhances U.S. leadership in the negotiations.
Moves the climate change issue away from a narrow focus on
carbon dioxide which places a disproportionate burden on
energy and transportation sectors of the economy.
It is a more valid approach, from a scientific perspective,
than other approaches.
Focussing on the total picture, including both sinks and
sources, increases the flexibility of efforts to limit the
effects of greenhouse gases.
Cons:
Some countries may portray our strong support for this
approach as a ploy for avoiding the reduction of carbon
dioxide.
May involve measurement requirements too sophisticated for
some countries to handle.
Scientific uncertainties regarding characteristics and
behavior of some of the gases make it difficult to calculate
exactly comparable indices at this time.
Methods for monitoring and reducing emissions of greenhouse
gases from sources such as forestry, bovine animals, and
pipelines are still being developed.
May become a tactical bargaining chip that could be used to
pressure the U.S. into accepting targets and timetables.
QUESTION 3:
Should a document be released at the first
negotiating session outlining U.S. accomplishments
that reduce greenhouse gas emissions?
Although we have opposed specific timetables and targets for
reducing emissions, the U.S. has already taken steps that address
10
the possibility of global climate change, such as the global
change research program, the Clean Air Act, phasing out CFC's,
and the tree initiative. In fact our efforts are unmatched by
any other country. Nevertheless, the U.S. was portrayed as anti-
environment at earlier climate change conferences principally
because of our lack, to date, of initiatives in the energy
sector. This situation might change if attention is directed to
our achievements. For this reason, we are developing a
publication to highlight U.S. accomplishments which could be
distributed at the first negotiating session.
The document could be framed as a U.S. "Action Plan" on climate
change. While it would be comprised of steps already approved or
on their way to being implemented, it is important not to frame
the document solely as an "accomplishments" brochure, lest there
be an attempt to discount actions already taken in order to press
for future commitments. Similar brochures have been prepared and
distributed by other countries at past conferences. A draft for
such a document is attached in Appendix B.
Pros:
O
The concrete steps taken by the U.S. compare well with the
largely rhetorical policy pursued by critics of the
Administration.
O
A quality document would demonstrate our rigorous interest
in the global climate change issue without breaking new
policy ground.
O
The U.S. would no longer be the only country without an
"Action Plan."
Cons:
O
Could become the focus of a negative campaign by being
portrayed as papering over the U.S. unwillingness to make
new international commitments.
O
May raise questions about why the U.S. still refuses to
endorse targets and timetables--if the U.S. is so close to
achieving targets others only talk about, why does it
continue to resist targets?
O
Could provide fodder for manipulation by countries or
interest groups with opposing views of the United States.
Attachments
Appendix A
Country Targets and Timetables
Australia
Cabinet announced target 11 October of stabilizing CO2,
CH4, N20 at 1988 levels by 2000, reducing 20 percent by
2005, provided no net adverse effect on Australian
competitiveness if other major developed nations do not take
similar actions.
Austria
Urged at February IPCC plenary that industrialized
countries stabilize by 2000 as first step; no specific
domestic target set.
Belgium
Said at IEA meeting in July that it had begun taking
actions that would lower emissions, but had not yet
conducted the analysis necessary to justify establishing a
target. Supported US position at Bergen.
Brazil
President Collor noted in June World Environment Day
speech the need for specific commitments for the
stabilization and reductions of CO2 emissions per capita.
He implied, but did not explicitly state, that he was
referring foremost to the fossil fuel emissions of developed
countries.
Canada
Pledged in June to stabilize CO2 at 1988 levels by
2005.
China
Strongly implies that it favors targets for developed
countries, opposes them for LDCs. Projects substantial CO2
emissions growth.
Denmark
National energy plan calls for 20 percent CO2 reduction
by 2005.
EC Commission
Favors stabilization of CO2 at 1990 levels by year
2000, significant reduction by 2005.
Finland
countries stabilize by year 2000 as first step, no specific
Urged at IPCC February plenary that industrialized
domestic target set.
France
Proposed in September a three-tiered global strategy to
converge per capita CO2 emissions rates by early 21st
century. Under this plan, France would stabilize its
emissions at or below 2.0 tons per capita by 2000 (up to a
10 percent increase from current levels), provided that
other major industrialized countries agree to stabilize
their emissions.
Germany
Cabinet announced in June non-binding commitment to
reduce CO2 emissions 25 percent from 1987 levels in former
kes: German area by 2005.
India
Opposes targets for developing countries.
Israel
Opposes targets.
Italy
Supports stabilization of CO2 at 1990 levels by 2000 as
part of EC-wide initiative. No domestic target set.
Japan
Announced action plan 19 October to stabilize CO2
emissions per capita at 1990 levels by 2000. Methane
emissions will also be capped at current levels. Gross CO2,
N20, and other greenhouse gas emissions will be stabilized
by 2000 if feasible.
Malta
Supports targets and timetables; no domestic target
set.
Mexico
Appreciates unilateral commitments by industrialized
countries to stabilize emissions by 2000. Believes
obligations should be equitably differentiated according to
countries' respective responsibilities for causing and
combatting climate change and their level of development.
Netherlands
Parliament passed in September revised National
Environmental Policy Plan, calling for stabilization of CO2
emissions at 1989-90 average by 1994-95, 3 to 5 percent
reduction by 2000. Government officials describe commitment
as binding.
New Zealand
Environment minister announced plans in September to
reduce CO2 emissions 20 percent from 1990 levels by 2005.
Norway
National goal is stabilization at 1987 levels by 2000,
provided other countries take similar actions.
Portugal
Opposes targete.
Saudi Arabia
Favors stabilization by 2000 target for industrialized
countries; no domestic target set.
Spain
Would support EC stabilization target if scaled to
current per capita emissions so as to be equitable among EC
members.
Sweden
Parliamentary mandate to stabilize CO2 at 1988 levels.
Supported call at IPCC February plenary for stabilization by
2000.
Switzerland
Urged at IPCC February plenary that industrialized
countries stabilize emissions by year 2000 as first step; no
domestic target set.
United Kingdom
Prime Minister Thatcher announced in May that the UK
would enact & strategy to achieve a stabilization of CO2
emissions at 1990 levels by 2005, provided other major
industrialized countries take similar steps.
USSR
Opposes targets.
Venezuela
Opposes targets.
Note: Only the government of the Netherlands describes its
target as binding.
America's Climate Change Strategy
PRESIDENT THE OF SEAL OF STATES THE UNITED
An Action Agenda
LEADERSHIP AND ACTION
President Bush has established the
The actions which are currently
comprehensive strategy for action and
included in the U.S. Climate Change
leadership outlined on the following
Strategy will result in U.S. greenhouse
pages. This strategy flows from his
gas emissions in the year 2000 being
commitment to economic growth and
equal to or below the 1987 level. In
to responsible stewardship of our
addition, the U.S. has essentially
planet. It is built upon a series of
stabilized its emissions of carbon
actions which will have broad ranging
dioxide (CO2) over the last 15 years
benifits - from curbing air pollution,
despite a growth in economic output of
to conserving energy, to restoring forest
about 50 percent. During this same
lands and which will help curb
period, global carbon dioxide emissions
greenhouse gas emissions.
have increased substantially.
environmentally beneficial, and
The U.S. believes that any
This U.S. Strategy for Climate
energy efficient technologies.
successful global climate change
Change includes many specific actions:
In total, the U.S. proposes to
strategy must be:
eliminating stratospheric ozone
invest over 2 billion dollars in these R
comprehensive, incorporating all
depleting compounds which are also
& D efforts next year alone.
relevant greenhouse gases, their
strong greenhouse gases;
sources and sinks;
increasing forest greenhouse gas
In August 1990, the
long term, taking into account the
sinks;
Intergovermental Panel on Climate
full range of social, economic, and
directly controlling various
Change (IPCC) stated in its Overview:
environmental consequences of
greenhouse gases and their precursors
"A comprehensive strategy addressing
proposed actions for this and future
which are also air pollutants;
all aspects of the problem and
generations;
reducing utility and other industrial
reflecting environmental, economic,
flexibile, built on many diverse
emissions in a way that strongly
and social costs and benefits is
actions (including market
encourages energy efficiency;
necessary." The President of the
incentives) and readily adjustable as
encouraging energy efficiency in
United States has established such a
knowledge is improved through a
such areas as buildings, appliances,
comprehensive strategy. The United
robust research and development
and lighting; and
States, today, is working to curb
program; and
increasing the use of renewable and
emissions, promote economic growth,
integrated, designed to involve all
non-fossil sources of energy.
and exercise leadership in meeting our
nations and dynamically reflect and
shared responsibilities as stewards of
incorporate each nation's unique
Integral to the U.S. Climate
the planet.
circumstances into the development
Change Strategy is the world's largest
of a truly global response strategy.
program of research and development:
The United States is taking
to increase our scientific
action.
understanding of climate change and
to provide a sound knowledge base
for making major public decisions.
to develop and to accelerate the
adoption of economically sound,
THE COMPREHENSIVE APPROACH TO CLIMATE CHANGE
T he science and economics of
The "Comprehensive Approach"
giving carbon dioxide a value of 1 and
human interactions with the global
has several advantages:
expressing all other gases in terms of
climate involve multiple trace gases
It provides flexibility for each nation
carbon dioxide equivalents. This
affected by activities in every sector of
to develop a diverse, innovative,
"index" enables a comparison of the
human society. Each of these
cost-effective mix of measures to
contributions of different gases, their
greenhouse gases is emitted from a
meet its global responsibilities in a
sources and sinks. (See chart opposite)
variety of sources and is trapped or
manner tailored to its own domestic
The costs of achieving a given
affected by "sinks" in different ways.
circumstances; and
reduction in the added greenhouse
Each gas has a different residence time
It is designed to employ the results of
effect will vary from gas to gas and will
in the atmosphere, a different ability to
integrated scientific and economics
vary depending on which sources or
trap heat, and different potential
research on a comprehensive basis,
which sinks of any given gas are
impacts on the environment. What is
using the results of our research
affected. Using the Comprehensive
important in addressing future climate
investment to maximize benefits to
Approach, maximum reduction in net
change is the total and cumulative
the environment and humanity.
emissions or atmospheric
affect of all gases and all sinks.
The relative benefit from a unit
concentrations can be achieved for any
In November, the government
reduction in the net emissions of each
given level of investment.
ministers at the Second World Climate
greenhouse gas can be approximated by
If emissions limits were designed to
Conference (SWCC) declared: "We
a measure of "global warming
apply piecemeal to one greenhouse gas
recommend that in the elaboration of
potential" based on the radiative
or economic sector, economic actors
response strategies, over time, all
behavior of the gas in the current
could simply adjust to such narrowly
greenhouse gases, sources, and sinks be
atmosphere. The Intergovernmental
focused regulation by shifting to
considered in the most comprehensive
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has
unregulated activities that could
manner possible "
calculated such a relative measure,
continue to contribute to potential
climate change.
A comprehensive approach, on
the other hand, matches the scientific,
economic, and environmental nature
CLIMATIC PROCESSES
of the whole climate system
DZONE-DEPLETING CASES
o,
so, NO,
H2O
co, CH4 N,O
RESPIRATION
TRANSPIRATION
DECOMPOSITION
INDUSTRIAL rossel FUEL
N3
ACTIVITIES
CONSUMPTION
CARBON
NITROGEN,
SULFUL
ACROCULTURAL
PHOSPHORUS
ACTIVITIES
IN MAN'S AND
ANIMALS
DEAD
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THE BOTTOM LINE
Implimentation of President's
Implementing a number of programs
The results of these currently
Comprehensive Climate Change
aimed directly at speeding the
planned U.S. actions are illustrated by
Strategy will result in United States
adoption of energy efficient
Chart 1, which shows projected U.S.
greenhouse gas emissions in the year
technologies and practices in homes
greenhouse gas emissions for the year
2000 being equal to or below 1987
and businesses.
2000. The estimate is based on
levels.
calculations made by the U.S.
Promoting the use of and
Environmental Protection Agency.
The specific actions which will
accelerating research into non-fossil
Chart 2 shows an alternative
contribute to this result include:
fuel energy sources, such as solar,
estimate based upon a different
nuclear, and alternative fuels.
economic model prepared by
Phasing out CFCs and other azone-
researchers at Harvard University.
depleting compounds which are also
greenhouse gases.
Putting a permanent ceiling on
sulphur dioxide emissions, at sharply
reduced levels and allowing freedom
of choice in meeting the ceilings,
thereby encouraging energy
efficiency and reducing greenhouse
Projected U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions
gas emissions. Under the recently
enacted Clean Air Act
(With Current Policy Commitments)
Based on IPCC CO2 Baseline Estimate
Amendments, utilities were given
the flexibility to make reductions by
2500
any means- a powerful incentive
for energy saving measures.
CFCs
2000
N20
Reducing, under the Clean Air Act,
air pollutants which are either
greenhouse gases themselves
(nitrogen oxides) or greenhouse gas
precursors (volatile organic
Millions of metric tonnes
carbon equivalents
CO
1500
NOx
VOCs
1000
CH4
compounds, carbon monoxide and
nitrogen oxides).
CO2
500
Initiating a program to plant a
billion trees a year and to make
0
other forest improvements.
1987
2000
(Enhancing sinks)
From EPA, "The Cost of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in
the United States", Presentafon by Alex Christofaro,
Director, Air and Energy Policy Division, December 4, 1990
Page 1
CHART /
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The actions which are currently included in the
U.S. Climate Change Strategy will result in U.S.
greenhouse gas emissions in the year 2000 being equal
to or below the 1987 level.
Projected U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions
(With Current Policy Commitments)
Based on Jorgenson/Wilcoxen (1990) Model
2500
CFCs
N20
2000
CO
Millions of metric tonnes
NOx
carbon equivalents
1500
VOCs
CH4
1000
CO2
500
0
1987
2000
From EPA, "The Cost of Reducing Greenhouse Gas
Emissions in the United States", Presentation by Alex Christofaro,
Director, Air and Energy Policy Division, December 4, 1990
CHART 2
Page 2
PHASING OUT CFC's
T he United States has long taken a
BEYOND THE MONTREAL
THE U.S. IS AHEAD OF
leadership role in addressing the
PROTOCOL
SCHEDULE
problem of stratospheric ozone
depletion. In 1978 the U.S. banned
The U.S. has enacted legislative
In addition to the more restrictive
the use of CFCs as propellants in spray
provisions in the recent Clean Air Act phase-out schedules required by the
can products. Such use was considered
amendments which will phase down U.
Clean Air Act, the 1989
a low value use which could be forgone
S. production and consumption of
Reconciliation Act enacted a tax on
given the potential damage which it
these ozone depleting compounds more
ozone-depleting chemicals during the
was believed that CFCs might be
quickly than the amended Montreal
period of phase-out. The tax rates for
causing. All other countries, with one
Protocol provisions. (See charts
each compound are its ozone depleting
or two exceptions, continued to use
opposite)
potential (ODP) multiplied by 1.37
CFCs as propellants.
For each and every one of these
per pound in 1990 and 1991, $ 1.67 in
At the London Meeting of Parties
compound groups and gases, the Clean
1992, 2.65 in 1993 and 1994, and an
to the Montreal Protocol the U.S.
Air Act reduces the allowed U.S.
increase of an additional $ 0.45 in each
supported a complete world-wide
production and consumption between
year after 1994.
phase-out of CFCs, halons, and certain
now and the final phase-out date
This tax has already helped to
other ozone depleting substances such
substantially below what the Protocol
reduce U.S. CFC production in the
as carbon tetrachloride and methyl
permits. (For example, see chart -
12-month period ending June 30, 1990
chloroform. The Protocol was
regarding CFC production)
to 23% below the levels permitted by
amended to achieve that objective.
Between now and the phase-out
the Montreal Protocol and other U.S.
dates the U.S., under the mandates of
law.
the Clean Air Act, must reduce U.S.
While these actions by the United
production below what is permitted by
States are justified by their benefits
the Montreal Protocol by the following
relating to stratospheric ozone
amounts:
depletion, they are also very highly
significant for climate change. CFCs,
halons, and carbon tetrachloride are
extremely powerful greenhouse gases,
thousands of times more powerful than
carbon dioxide. Methyl chloroform is
"Cumulative Near-term reductions in
also a strong greenhouse gas that is in
Clean Air Act Below the
wide use. (See discussion of
Montreal Protocol"
Comprehensive Approach above)
Major CFCs
19%
Halons
32%
Other CFCs
22%
Carbon Tetrachloride
13%
Methyl Chloroform
20%
Page 3
Phase-Out of Major CFCs Percent of Base Year
100
90
80
PROTOCOL
70
-
60
US CAA
Percent of Base Year
50
40
30
20
10
0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
FromArtide 2A 2E, Montres Protocol text and Title 6
of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990
. FEE production level is an estimate based on actual
production during the 12 months ending in June 1990
CHART 3
Phase-Out of Halons Percent of Base Year
Phase-Out of Carbon Tetrachloride
100
100
90
90
PROTOCOL
80
80
FEE
70
US CAA
70
60
Percent of Base Year
40
Percent of Base Year
60
US CAA
50
50
PROTOCOL
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
From Article 2A 2E, Montreal Protocol text
From Article 2A 2E, Montreal Protocol text and Title
and Title 6 of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990
6 of the
Production estimates under the User Fee are
Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990
based on Treasury Department estimates
CHART 4
CHART 5
CHART 7
Phase-Out of Methyl Chioroform
100
Phase-Out of Other CFCs
Percent
of
Base Year
90
80
PROTOCOL
90
70
80
-
Percent of Base Year
US CAA
PROTOCOL
60
70
50
FEE
Percent of Base Year
60
40
US CAA
50
30
40
20
30
10
20
0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
10
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
0
From Article 2A 2E, Montreal Protocol text and Title
6 of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Production estimates under the User Fee are based
From Article 2A 2E, Montreal Protocol text
on Treasury Department estimates
and Title 6 of the
Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990
CHART 6
Page 4
THE 1990 CLEAN AIR ACT AMENDMENTS
The 1990 Clean Air Act
The Act is also expected to induce oil-
reduced and cleaner fuels will be
Amendments, signed by the President
burning utilities to switch to natural
required in the nine cities with the
in November 1990, will achieve
gas, which produces fewer greenhouse
worst ozone problems and in 41 areas
substantial reductions of greenhouse
gases than does oil.
during the winter months when carbon
gases and their chemical precursors,
Substantial reductions in either
monoxide standards are exceeded. A
such as volatile organic compounds,
greenhouse gases or their chemical
clean fuel car pilot program in
carbon monoxide, and nitrogen oxides,
precursors will also result from new
California will use combinations of
in addition to reducing emissions of the
controls on stationary and mobile
vehicle technology and cleaner fuels to
more familiar pollutants such as sulfur
sources mandated by the new Act in
meet tight standards. Twenty-six areas
dioxide. Moreover, the Act will result
order to bring cities into attainment of
will have to limit emissions from
in direct carbon dioxide reductions due
national air quality standards. A wide
centrally-fueled fleets of 10 or more
to more efficient electricity generation.
variety of stationary sources of volatile
vehicles.
When converted into equivalent units
organic compounds will be required to
Regulations are also being
of carbon emissions and taken
reduce emissions by adding controls or
proposed under the new source
together, these reductions will amount
by changing production processes.
performance standards of the Clean
to a 16% decrease in greenhouse gases
Newly tightened automobile emission
Air Act to require capture of pollutant
from these affected sources between
standards will further reduce emissions
gases which are given off by landfills.
the years 1987 and 2000.
of hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide,
The purpose of the regulations is to
The most dramatic reductions will
and nitrogen oxides, and new controls
capture air toxics and volatile organic
come from electrical utilities. Under
on gasoline evaporation will greatly cut
compounds which are the chemical
the Act, utilities, which must reduce
volatile organic emissions. In addition,
precursors of greenhouse gas ozone.
sulfer dioxide (SO2) emissions by 10
gasoline itself will be reformulated to
Methane will also be captured and
million tons below 1980 levels, are
reduce its volatility, thus reducing
flared. Greenhouse gas emissions in the
given flexibility to choose how to
volatile organic emissions at the
year 2000 will be reduced by an
achieve these reductions. Utilities are
source.
estimated 44 million tons of carbon
thus free to choose cost-effective
The Act will dramatically expand
equivalent.
conservation measures to achieve
the introduction of clean-burning
compliance. This powerful
alternative fuels into the U.S.
conservation stimulus will sharply
transportation sector. Several large
reduce carbon dioxide (CO2)
states and the fleets of America's major
emissions from this sector.
cities are expected to introduce fuels
Further, the Act requires utilities
and vehicle technology which will
to reduce their nitrogen oxide
emit fewer greenhouse gases. Beginning
emissions by two million tons under
in model year 1994, new tailpipe
the acid rain provisions. These
emissions standards for hydrocarbons,
provisions also contain strong
carbon monoxide, and nitrogen oxides
incentives for both electric utilities
will be phased in. Auto manufacturers
and industrial sources to adopt
will also have to reduce refueling
advanced, energy effiecient
emissions. Gasoline volatility will be
technologies that will lower overall
emissions, including carbon dioxide.
Page 5
Trends in Emissions of Carbon monoxide, 1970-1987,
1987 2000 Comparison
120
80
100
50
TRANSPORT
80
40
Teragrams
60
TOTAL
40
30
20
20
0
10
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
From EPA, "National Air Pollution and Emission Estimates, 1940-1982" Feb. 1984
0
EPA. "National Air Quality and Emissions Trend Report, 1988" March 1990.
1987
2000
EPA, "National Air Quality and Emissions Trend Report, 1967" March 1989.
CHART 8
CHART 9
Trends in Emissions of Reactive Volatile Organic Compounds 1970-1987
1987 2000 Comparison
30
80
70
25
TRANSPORT
60
20
OTHER
50
Teragrams
15
40
10
30
20
5
10
0
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
0
1987
2000
From same sources as Chart 15
CHART 10
CHART II
Trends in Emissions of NOx
1987 2000 Comparison
250
25000
MOBILE
20000
SOURCES
200
STATIONARY
15000
1000 Metric tons
SOURCES
150
10000
TOTAL
100
5000
50
0
1970
1975
1980
1981
1982
1983
1964
1985
1986
0
Source: IECD, "OECD Environmental Data, Compendium 1989"
1987
2000
CHART 12
CHART 13
Page 6
ENHANCING NATURAL SINKS
The term "sinks" of greenhouse gases
One purpose of this initiative is to
enormously valuable heritage for all
is meant to include human and natural
improve the condition of private, non-
humankind. Temperate zone forests
activities, processes, and phenomena
industrial forest lands which are often
are being damaged by air pollution
that remove greenhuose gases from the
now in poor condition due to low
stresses and tropical forests are being
atmosphere or reduce their
levels of management and investment.
rapidly lost.
atmospheric lifetimes. Examples
Improving these lands will increase
The U.S. believes that the
include forests, soils and oceans. The
benefits from soil protection, wildlife,
convention should emphasize market-
IPCC recognized the importance of
wood products, and recreation.
based mechanisms and flexibility to
sinks in a report of its Response
This initiative will also have
achieve sound, sustainable forest use,
Strategies Work Group (RSWG):
significant climate change benefits
to improve the health and vigor of
"The RSWG reviewed potential
through the carbon which growing
forests, to encourage reforestation, and
measures for mitigating climate
trees (sinks) remove from the air and
to increase the value of forests as
change These measures include those
store both as plant tissue and in the
sources of income and jobs.
which limit emissions from greenhouse
soil. The estimates of carbon removed
Areas suggested for international
gas sources (such as energy production
from the atmosphere by the trees to be
cooperation and joint action include
and use), those which increase the use
planted under the initiative are 9
research and monitoring; education,
of natural sinks (such as immature
million metric tons of carbon annually
training, and technical assistance;
forests and other biomass) for
by the year 2000, growing to 50 million
reforestation and rehabilitation; reform
sequstering greenhouse gases, as well as
tons per year by 2010. (See chart 8)
of the Tropical Forestry Action Plan;
those measures aimed at protecting
reduction of air pollution; bilateral and
reservoirs such as existing forests."
multilateral assistance; debt-for nature
Global Forest Convention
swaps; removal of harmful subsidies.
Reforestation
The President proposed at the
The President has included in
Summit of Industrialized Nations in
both his FY 1991and FY 1992 Budgets
July 1990 at Houston to begin
a major, multiyear reforestation
negotiations as expeditiously as
proposal to plant one billion trees per
possible on a global convention on
year on 1.5 million acres and to
forests, aiming for completion and
improve forest management practices
signing by 1992.
on an additional 180,000 acres per
The world's forests absorb carbon
year. This initiative will encompass
dioxide as well as provide many
cities and towns across America, as
benefits in the form of timber and fiber,
well as rural private, non-industrial
soil and water protection, wildlife
forest lands. It comes in addition to
habitat, recreation and other valuable
reforestation which Federal agencies
outputs. They provide the habitat for
normally do on lands under their
some 80% of the planets remaining
jurisdiction.
unknown and unspecified gene pool-a
completely irreplacable and potentially
Page 7
To put the power of trees as "sinks"
Reductions in Carbon Dioxide Emissions
into perspective, consider the
From Clean Air Act and Trees Initiative
example of an acre of improved
50
stock of southern pine planted on a
45
high quality site in the southeastern
40
U.S. In the 15th year after
35
TREE
PLANTING
planting these trees would take up
30
between 5700 and 6200 pounds of
carbon per acre. While the amount
Million metric tonnes C
25
20
taken up declines thereafter as the
15
trees mature, additional carbon
10
continues to be taken up.
5
(See chart 16)
0
2000
2010
From EPA, "The Cost of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in
the United States", Presentation by Alex Christofaro,
Director, Air and Energy Policy Division, December 4, 1990
CHART 15
Tree Planting Initiative
Example Carbon Sequestration by Age of Stand
CUTOVER
6000
5000
4000
Pounds of Carbon/Acre/Year
3000
2000
1000
0
-1000
80 70 60 75 65 50 40 55 45 5 25 30 35 20 10 15
From U.S. Forest Service, personal communication From U.S.
Forest Service, personal communication
CHART 16
Page 8
ENERGY INITIATIVES: Efficiency
T he Administration is currently developing and will announce shortly a National Energy Strategy that will further
contribute to the greenhouse gas emissions reductions cited here. Certain National Energy Strategy initiatives have been
included in some of the calulations in this document.
The U.S. strategy for action
Encourage use of energy efficient
More efficient new appliance
includes a number of other energy
building standards.
standards
efficiency measures, in addition to the
Both the U.S. and the private
Large appliances account for over
Clean Air Act's strong incentives to
sector have developed standards that
two thirds of home energy usage,
save and use energy efficiently due to
would achieve 20-25% energy savings
excluding space heating. In the past
the utility emissions cap and the
in buildings. They could save $5
three years, the U.S. has imposed
flexibility in complying given to
billion over 20 years from the new
energy efficiency standards on many of
utilities.
buildings built in a single year.
the most energy-intensive appliances,
The U.S. will promote voluntary
including refrigerator/freezers, clothes
Level Playing Field Between
use of these standards through training
washers, dryers, and dishwashers.
Electricity Supply and Demand
programs, design manuals and
These standards should achieve annual
Reduction
computer-aided design systems. It will
energy savings of 7-8% relative to
In some cases utilities can meet
encourage State and local governments
projected use by the year 2000, and 14-
demands for energy services without
to use the standards in their building
15% relative to projected use by the
any additional greenhouse gas
codes. These actions to encourage
year 2010.
emissions by investing in energy
adoption of the most energy efficient
The imposition of appliance
efficiency rather than by increasing
modern technology in residential and
standards has already resulted in a
electricity supply. Utilities in only 15
commercial building will reduce
reduction of greenhouse gas emission.
states are now fully able to recover
greenhouse gas emissions in 2000 by
As older appliances are replaced with
costs from such investments, including
8.2 million metric tons of carbon
new, environmentally friendly models,
energy saving measures as well as new
equivalent.
the greenhouse gas reductions will
supply. Absent such efficiency
Use of the modern standard in
increase dramatically. By the year
measures, new capacity requirements
public housing assistance programs will
2000, DOE anticipates an annual
by the year 2000 are projected at more
reduce greenhouse gas emissions by
reduction of 5.0 million tons of carbon
than 100,000 MW.
800,000 metric tons carbon equivalent
equivalent from projected greenhouse
The U.S. will work with the States
in 2000.
gas emission due to these standards;
to identify regulatory barriers that
the annual reduction will more than
discourage utility investment in energy
double to 10.6 million tons of carbon
efficiency. Utility planning techniques
equivalent in 2010.
will be developed to consider all
alternatives and their costs. The U.S.
will provide training, information
dissemination, and other types of
technology transfer activities. These
actions will reduce greenhouse gas
emissions in the year 2000 by 9 million
metric tons carbon equivalent.
Page 7
Expand national energy audit
More efficient lighting in federal
capabilities and use:
facilities:
Industry, with some 350,000
Twenty-five percent of federal
separate establishments, uses 24.7
agency energy use is for lighting of
Quads of energy annually. Many
facilities. Budget constraints, lack of
options exist for low-cost quick payoff
adequate information by facility
energy saving investments, but smaller
managers, and restrictive procurement
firms often lack the information,
practices have slowed adoption of
expertise, and specialized resources to
efficient new technologies.
do energy audits of their plants.
The U.S. will identify energy
The U.S. will increase its program
savings options in Federal facilities.
to train engineers in energy audit and
Project plans, procurement methods,
diagnostic methods from the current
and financing options will be
13 engineering schools to 40
developed to overcome the barriers to
nationwide in the year 2000. This will
improve lighting efficiency. This will
reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the
reduce greenhouse gases in the year
year 2000 by 6 million metric tons
2000 by 1.4 million metric tons carbon
carbon equivalent.
equivalent.
40
U.S. Savings in Emissions From Initiatives in
35
Energy Efficiency and Renewables.
30
Million Metric Tons Carbon Equivalent
25
20
Federal Building Lighting
15
Appliance Standards
Selected NES Initiatives
10
Energy Analysis & Diagnostic Centers
5
Interim Building Standards
Least Cost Utility Planning
0
CHART 17
Page 8
ENERGY INITIATIVES: Renewables and Non-fossil Fuels
Accelerate the transfer of photovoltaic
U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide by
technology to U.S. commercial
nine percent. Worldwide, nuclear
production:
energy reduced these emissions by
Recent laboratory research has
more than seven percent
achieved photovalic efficiencies of over
A comprehensive strategy for
30%. With such efficiencies and
nuclear energy is being developed as a
improved manufacturing, today's $4-5
part of the National Energy Strategy
prices per peak watt could be cut in
and is supported in the President's
half.
Fiscal Year 1992 budget. This strategy
The U.S. will start an intensive
includes:
effort with industry to understand
Developing advanced light water
potential improvements in
reactors that will incorporate passive
photovoltaic processes. Industry joint
safety features in a standardized
ventures to provide practical solutions
(modular) design. This will reduce
and maximize transfer of results will be
the time needed to license new
encouraged. The U.S. will also provide
plants, while assuring that safety
cost-shared technical assistance to
issues are adequately addressed. The
adapt manufacturing improvement
U.S. is currently supporting first-of-a-
techniques to specific processes. By
kind engineering work that will assist
the year 2000, greenhouse gas emission
companies in their efforts to have the
reductions will begin to phase in at
Nuclear Regulatory Commission
500,000 metric tons of carbon
certify the safety of standardized
equivalent.
designs.
Conducting research and
Expand nuclear energy capacity:
devlopment on advanced reactor
As the Nation enters the 1990s,
concepts with safety features that go
nuclear power is the second largest
beyond even the standardized designs
source of U.S. electricity, providing
("to be intrinsically safe") currently
almost 20 percent of America's
before the Nuclear Regulatory
electricity needs, and nuclear power
Commission. High temperature gas
causes no greenhouse gases.
cooled reactors use specially coated
Because of the availability of
fuel elements that will not fail even
nuclear power the nation was able to
under the high temperatures that
avoid the use of large amounts of fossil
could occur in an accident. Liquid
fuels in 1989. In terms of the
metal reactors use liquid sodium as
displacement of fossil fuels, nuclear
the heat exchange medium.
power can take credit for reduced
Researchers have demonstrated that
utility emissions of carbon dioxide-a
both reactor types can shut
major "greenhouse" gas-by 20 percent,
themselves down safely under
or approximately 128 million tons. In
conditions that would be extremely
overall terms, nuclear energy plants cut
serious for present-day reactors.
Page 9
Reforming the nuclear licensing
Increase transportation use of
process through consolidation of the
alternative fuels.
redundant aspects of the
Use of oxygenated fuels, such as
construction and operating licensing
ethanol, can reduce urban smog levels,
processess, without compromising
tropospheric ozone, and emissions of
nuclear safety concerns.
CO2.
Developing a long-term solution to
U.S. research has demonstrated
the nuclear waste problem by
the technical feasibility of the
developing a permanent repository,
processes to produce ethanol from non-
possibly an interim retrievable
food domestic resources such as wood
storage facility.
or herbaceous crops.
DOE is funding programs that are
The U.S. will expand current
supporting growth in nuclear energy
research programs in alternative fuels
capacity and the life extension of many
to include cost-shared joint ventures
currently operating plants. According
aimed at reducing the cost of ethanol
to analysis done for the National
from non-food resource. This effort will
Energy Strategy, support from DOE is
be coordinated with industry vechicle
expected to result in adding new
and engine development programs.
nuclear capacity by 2000 and to have
On-line 264 GWe of new nuclear
capacity, compared with 120 GWe
today. Again, because nuclear power
allows the nation to avoid the use of
fossil fuels, such an expansion of
nuclear use would result in yet a further
substantial reduction in CO2
emissions.
Page 10
ENERGY INITIATIVES: Conservation and Renewable R&D
T he U.S. is funding a large research
Buildings energy efficiency
Total FY 1992 funding for research
and development program for
research focuses on the interactions of
in new enregy saving technologies is
conservation and renewable energy. In
energy systems, and the efficient use
over $900 million.
Fiscal Year 1992 this effort is increased
advanced window technologies and
by 18 percent to a level of $495
building materials to control light and
million.
heat entering a building.
In the long run, an adequate
Industrial energy efficiency R&D
response to climate change will require
includes funding for more efficient
the use of new technologies that
steel, aluminum, and paper processes.
conserve energy or that provide energy
A scale-up and test of the use of
without causing greenhouse gas
concentrated solar energy to detoxify
emissions. These technologies will be
liquid wastes will also be done.
needed in all of the economy's sectors.
The U.S. is proposing to initiate,
R&D for energy efficiency in
in the fiscal year 1992 budget, a new
transportation includes work on high
joint auto industry-government
temperature internal combustion
consortium to develop a battery for
engines, gas turbine engines, fuel cells
electric vehicles. Improved batteries
and a new initiative for electric
that could extend vehicle range to 120-
vehicles. Air transportation energy
200 miles could enable electric
efficiency work includes research in
vehicles to capture as much as 20
hybrid laminar flow, composite
percent of the market by 2030. Fuel-
materials, improved terminal
cell-powered electric vehicles offer the
operations, and improved air traffic
potential to achieve up to 50 percent
control.
efficiencies.
Alternative-fuel vehicle
demonstration and a scale-up of a
wood-to-ethanol process are being
done. An initiative to address the
problem of combustion emissions in
waste-to-energy plants is being started.
Page 11
TRENDS: CO2 Emissions
U. S. emissions in 1988 were only 2.7
% above the 1973 level, despite the
Emissions of CO2 Per Unit of GDP, 1988
fact that real U.S. GDP, in 1985
350
dollars, grew by 48 percent over that
300
period.
CANADA
250
UK
A key unanswered question about
responding to the climate change issue
developing countries and economic
Metric tonnes C/Million 1985 $
US
200
is how to achieve economic growth in
W.GERM
150
ITALY
reform in formerly centrally-planned
JAPAN
countries without massive increases in
100
FRANCE
greenhouse gas emissions.
50
Chart 22 compares the recent U.S.
0
emissions trend with countries which
contain most of the world's population,
Emissions from DOE, "Trends '90, A Compendium of Data on Global
Change", August 1990.
have trends of rapidly growing CO2
GDP from OECD, "National Accounts 1960-1988", (Paris 1990)
CHART 19
emissions, and are likely to have
substantial emissions-generating
economic growth in the coming
decades.
U.S. CO2 Emissions - Fossil Fuels, Cement Products and Gas Flaring
U.S. GDP
4500
4000
3500
Million netric
3000
tons carbon
2500
2000
U.S. GDP
(billions)
1500
1000
500
0
1973
1988
Source DOE Trends '90; OECD National Accounts, 1960-1988, (Paris 1990)
GDP deflators 1982=100 Source 1990 Economic Report
CHART 20
Page 13
Trends in Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Chart 21 compares the U.S. trend to
U.S. and High Growth Countries
countries with substantial growth in
300
emissions.
250
US
USSR
200
CHINA
1973 = 100
150
INDIA
MEXICO
100
-
R. KOREA
50
0
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
Calculated from data in DOE, "Trends 90, A Compendium of
Data on Global Change", August 1990
CHART2I
Trends in Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Chart 22 compares the U.S. trend to
U.S. and Moderate Growth or Decline Countries
120
countries with moderate growth or
decline in emissions.
100
US
JAPAN
80
GERMANY
1973 = 100
60
UK
40
CANADA
#####
FRANCE
20
0
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
Calculated from data in DOE, "Trends '90, A Compendium of
Data on Global Change", August 1990
CHART 22
Page 14
TRENDS: Energy Intensity
Chart 23 compares United States
ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER UNIT OF GDP
energy consumption per unit of gross
35
domestic product (GDP) with Canada,
30
Japan, France, Italy, West Germany
US
and the United Kingdom - the other
25
CANADA
G-7 countries.
20
JAPAN
However, as shown in Chart 24,
the United States has improved its
averaging an annual improvement of 2
1000 BTUs/1985 U. $ S.$
15
FRANCE
energy use/GDP ratio since 1970,
10
ITALY
5
W GERM
percent per year. In 1988 the U.S.
used only 70.9 % as much energy per
0
UK
unit of GDP as it used in 1970.
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
The United States' rate of
Total Consumption in Quads from International and Contingency
improvement in the industrial energy
Information Division, Statistics Branch, Energy Information
Administration
use/gross product orginating (GPO)
GDP in 1985 $ from "National Accounts 1960-1988", OECD (Paris
ratio has been greater than most other
1990)
CHART 23
G-7 countries, averaging close to 3
percent per year since 1975 (Chart 24).
Since the early 1970s, the United
States has improved its heating
efficiency on an energy used per square
foot per degree day basis. The U.S.
used in 1987 only 68.4% of the energy
Savings in Energy Used/Unit of GPO, Industry
used per square foot in 1972. Today,
Savings in 1986 compared to 1977
50
U.S. energy use in dwellings per square
45
foot per degree day is much lower than
40
most other G-7 countries.
35
30
Percent saved
25
20
15
10
5
0
Japan
Italy
France
U.K.
U.S.
W. Germany
Canada
CHART 24
Page 15
Energy Consumption per Unit of GDP, 1988
25
20
1000 BTUs/1988 U.S.
15
10
5
0
Japan
Italy
France
U.K.
U.S.
W. Germany
Canada
CHART 25
Page 16
TRENDS: Transportation
P opulation density in the United
States is 5 to 10 times less than in
Imporvement in New Car Fuel Economy, 1973-1987
100
many of the other G-7 countries. With
90
such a low density, the U.S. spatial
spread between work and home often
80
makes mass transit systems impractical.
Distribution of economic activities
Percent increase in Miles per Gallon
70
60
across a wide continent requires
50
substantial energy consumption for
40
moving people and freight long
30
distances. (chart 30) Transportation
20
energy consumption per capita (Chart
10
24) is highest in the United States and
0
Canada and substantially lower in the
G-7 countries with high population
Italy
Japan
New car fuel efficiencies in the
W.Germany
U.K.
U.S.
densities.
CHART 28
United States are now roughly even
with those of most of the other G-7
countries (Chart 25), despite much
more demanding U.S. emissions and
auto safety standards. The U.S. 1987
miles per gallon ratio was 28.3, within
CHART 29
a relatively narrow range from Japan at
27.7 to the United Kingdom at 31.8.
NEW CAR FUEL EFFICIENCY
40
The U.S. from 1973 to 1987 increased
its new car fuel economy by 100
35
US
percent. (chart 26)
30
CANADA
25
JAPAN
Miles/Gallon
20
FRANCE
15
ITALY
10
W GERM
5
UK
0
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
From OECD, "Energy Conservation in IEA Countries" (Paris 1987); IEA
country submissions; and Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (French amounts)
Conversion factors: 3.785 liters per gallon, 1.609 kilometers per mile.
POPULATION DENSITY PER SQUARE MILE, 1988
900
800
700
600
Persons / Square Mile
500
400
300
200
100
0
US
CANADA
JAPAN
FRANCE
ITALY
W GERM
UK
Population from OECD, "National Accounts 1960-1988" Vol 1 (Paris, 1990)
Area from Pharos Books "The World Almanac and Book of Facts
1990", (New York, 1989)
CHART 30
TRENDS: Pollution Expenditures
United States' declines in emissions
of volatile organic compounds, carbon
Pollution Control Expenditures as A Percentage
of Gross Domestic Product
monoxide, CFCs, and, to some degree,
2
the stabilization of carbon dioxide
1.8
emissions over the period from the
US
1.6
early 1970s to the present can be
1.4
FRANCE
attributed to U.S. investment to
protect and to clean up the
Percent of GDP
1.2
W.GERM.
1
environment. U.S. spending for all
0.8
NETHER.
pollution control purposes over the
0.6
period is shown in Chart 17. It has
0.4
UK
grown by 100 percent from 1972 to
0.2
AUSTRIA
1989.
0
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
U.S. pollution control spending
has historically been larger compared
From same EPA source as Chart 17, P. 9-17.
to the country's Gross Domestic
CHART 32
Product than spending by other
countries for which data is available.
Chart 18 shows pollution control
spending as a percentage of Gross
Domestic Product.
U.S. Pollution Control Expenditures,
90000
80000
70000
Millions of 1986 Dollars
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
From EPA, "Environmental Investments: the Cost of a Clean
Environment, July 6, 1990 draft. Tables 8-18 and
8-18A p. 8-73
CHART 33
Page 17
GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH
T he Intergovernmental Panel on
IOC, and UNEP), through the
2. Enhance scientific research to
Climate Change (IPCC) stated that,
International Council of Scientific
support the development and
"To reduce the current scientific
Unions (ICSU), and through the
implementation of a comprehensive
uncertainties in each of these areas (as
recently established International
approach to greenhouse gas emmissions
listed below) will require
Group of Funding Agencies for Global
reductions, specifically a focus on:
internationally coordinated research,
Change Research (IGFA).
sources and sinks of greenhouse gases;
the goal of which is to improve our
The central task of the US/GCRP
development of a quantitative index of
capability to observe, model, and
is to develop predictive understanding
radiative forcing; and
understand the global climate system.
of the Earth's system's processes,
use of economic models to generate
Such a program of research will reduce
particularly the climate aspects. It is
future scenarios that cover multiple
scientific uncertainties and assist in the
the intent of the US/GCRP to provide
greenhouse gases and multiple
formulation of sound national and
leaders of government with the best
sectors.
international response strategies".
possible scientific information as inputs
The ultimate goals of the
The U.S. Global Change Research
to environmental policy decisions.
US/GCRP are to (1) Obtain a
Program (US/GCRP) has been
The highest priorities for the
predictive understanding of the
developed as a central component of
US/GCRP in FY 1992 are to:
interactive physical, chemical,
the United State's approach to global
1. Enhance scientific research
biological, geological, and social
change, and more specifically to
efforts that seek to reduce the scientific
processes that regulate natural and
address these IPCC identified
uncertainties identified during the IPCC
human-induced changes in the total
uncertainties.
scientific and impact assessments.
Earth system and, (2) Provide a strong
In FY 1992, the U.S plans to
Specifically, the USGCRP research
scientific basis for national and
invest almost $1.2 billion in this
will focus on understanding the
international policy-making related to
Program, which virtually doubles the
processes affecting:
changes in the global environment and
U.S. commitment to the research
changing concentrations of greenhouse
their regional impacts.
program of the US/GCRP since it was
gases, which are implicated in future
initiated in FY 1990 (see chart below).
global warming predictions;
U.S. scientists have lead the
clouds and radiative balance, which
development of an international global
strongly influence the magnitude of
change research program. Other
climarte change at global and
countries have joined the U.S. in a
Funding for USGCRP Focused Programs
regional scales;
coordinated research effort to address
oceans, which influence the timing
1200
critical scientific uncertainties, through
and patterns of climate change;
1000
such international programs as the
land-surface hydrology, which affects
800
World Climate Research Programme
regional climate change and water
((WCRP) and the International
availability;
Geosphere-Biosphere Programme
polar ice sheets, which affect
Millions of Dollars
600
400
(IGBP). The total international
predictions of global sea level
200
research program, for which the U.S.
changes; and
provides about 50% of the financial
0
ecological dynamics, which are
support, is coordinated through United
impacted by and respond to climate
1989
1990
1991
1992
Nations scientific bodies (i.e., WMO,
change.
Page 19
Master Graphic illustrating the
US/GCRP
Page 20
CLIMATE CHANGE: Comprehensive Approach
Gases
H2O
CO2
CH4
COS
Sinks
New Growth Forest
Sources
Global Warming Potential Index
128%
2300
TOCOL
100
CAA
B
&
*
29
*
bitt
the
2000
03
N2O
NOx
temprete ((11)
Natural YOC
CF3Br
SO2
COS
CCF12
COK
Manamade VOC
Industrial/
Factories
Relative Radiative
Forcing Potential over Yes's
GAS
Instantaneous Radiative
Atmospheric Residence
Forcing per KG (ret, to C02)
Years (eatimeted)
20
100
500
CO2
THE
120
code
-
in
CH4
58
10
63
21
9
N2O
206
150
270
290
190
K
CFC-11
3970
60
4500
3500
1500
CFC-12
5750
130
7100
7300
4500
Source: IPCC Scientific Assessment, 1990, Tables 20,2.8.
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