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446394361
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Kansas City Speech, 4/26/76
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446394361
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Kansas City Speech, 4/26/76
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25941-023
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George H. W. Bush Papers
Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Files
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1976-04-26
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1976
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1976-04-26
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1976
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Originally Processed With FOIA(s):
FOIA Number:
S
S
FOIA
MARKER
This is not a textual record. This is used as an
administrative marker by the George Bush Presidential
Library Staff.
Record Group/Collection: Donated Historical Materials
Collection/Office of Origin: Bush, George H.W., Collection
Series:
Personal Papers
Subseries:
CIA Files, Events and Appearances File
OA/ID Number:
25941
Folder ID Number:
25941-023
Folder Title:
Kansas City Speech, 4/26/76
Stack:
Row:
Section:
Shelf:
Position:
G
6
22
3
5
Jamsas City Spuch
april 26,1976
WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT B To COUNTER THE
STATIES 01 our ENEMIES, and we went pather
analyze and a ssess to the best 00
sent apilates , Hal NO. and the in ent D. provers / one
+
Much SAID About Abuses.
Old Profession -
Sun T2u "The Ant of War"
500 B.C. - Ching
An army without secrite agents
like man without eyes a ears
"The Supreme art of war - to
subdue the Enemy without Eighting
Booh poes on to discribe agents
Photocopy from George Bush Presidential Library
double agents propagaide
II
There is a thrat today
You read about the abuses
The Dast - a such munim G
a
incidents connected etc
Flags - Died in surve
Monhyo - Brato Heel out of
Camer hale
1) This noning I wint
to Chrich - countries
2) Wednesday to Bella Abrug
Photocopy from George Bush Presidential Library
Photocopy from George Bush Presidential Library
2nd
holded
net,
3
The Product 60 our burves
15 intelligence
1, objective -
2. no political bias - budget etc.
3.
Collected in various ways
some spring
mele ount reporting
soul technological -
Analyzed by real pros - ducated
Photocopy from George Bush Presidential Library
districated to their country -
PHD- MAS -
A Fan Spots we are
watching C creatity
/ Curvent States + some propabon
/ - China -
III
NO MATTER HOW DIVERGENT
ORINIONS -
I thile we could agree that
certain is essitial
/ Naclear Prolitivation
2. Political Charge - will China
world cloun to USSR
3 Terrorism -
4. Induat Flow 67 Drugs
5 Early wandy of conflit
is avoid wou
6 Maps
Photocopy from George Bush Presidential Library
7. Economic Intilligener is
help avent boucotts
8. A nole in seeing that Russahup onsalf word.
This is ow business and
Much wele move
Economic Problems
Oil
In recent years, the growing interdependence of the world
has meant that economic developments overseas have had a con-
siderable impact on US domestic as well as foreign policy.
Two examples come readily to mind. One, of course, is the
energy crisis, and the other is foreign demand for US food.
Our own substantial dependence on foreign oil, in particular
Arab oil, was readily demonstrated at the time of the oil em-
bargo in October 1973 and the subsequent quadrupling of the
price of OPEC crude. For some time to come, the United States--
and its allies even more so--will remain vulnerable to an oil
embargo,
The oil problem has another important dimension-- the po-
tential worldwide financial and political instability stemming
Photocopy from George Bush-Presidential Library
from the vast flow of petrodollars. OPEC countries now hold
foreign bank deposits, bonds, stocks, and real estate worth
more than $100 billion. We have no real indication that the
oil-producing countries will use these petrodollars in a po-
litical way, but this is a possibility that must be watched.
Grain
Until recently, periodic Soviet crop shortfalls had little
impact outside of the bloc. But as the USSR under Khrushchev
--continued
pushed cultivation into marginal crop lands to meet the needs
of its population- not only for grains but also to increase
meat in the diet--the implication of Soviet shortages has as-
sumed a worldwide dimension. The price of meat and bread in
the US is now affected by what happens in the USSR. About
half of the instability in world food prices these past few
years can be directly traced to crop developments in the
Soviet Union. The Soviets are almost certain to experience
crop shortfalls in the years ahead, and some could be as ser-
ious as the 1975 disaster (140 million tons). Indeed, as the
leadership seeks to further increase the amount of meat in the
Soviet diet, an even greater burden will be placed on Soviet
agriculture to provide the necessary feed grains.
Moscow's needs for Western help are illustrated by the
recent 5-year agreement to buy 6-8 million tons of US grain
annually. It seems highly unlikely that the Soviet leadership
Photocopy from George Bush Presidential Library
will change the fundamental structure of the agricultural sec-
tor; hence, gross inefficiency of their system will continue.
The government has, however, been substantially increasing the
amount of chemical fertilizer and machinery devoted to agricul-
ture. While these added resources will help, the nature of
the system and the unavailability of large new crop areas
suggest that output will continue to lag behind needs. In the
absence of substantial world stockpiles of grain, considerable
instability in the world grain market seems likely in the years
ahead.
2
Terrorism
Over the next few years, governments such as ours are
likely to find terrorism the most urgent, and least tract-
able, international threat with which they have to cope.
Whatever be its actual or alleged motivation, the concrete
results of this terrorism are likely to be acts of mindless,
disruptive violence including bombings, the taking of hostages,
and the kidnapping or murder of civilian and military govern-
ment officials. These terrorist acts, which will be almost
impossible to prevent, will exploit the vulnerability of com-
plex, interdependent societies such as ours to severe disrup-
tion by the acts of small numbers of fanatics who care little
for human lives, including their own.
At some point within the next decade, the terrorist
problem will probably take a quantum jump in severity and
complexity by acquiring a nuclear dimension. The extent of
Photocopy from George Bush Presidential Library
nuclear weapon stockpiles stored around the world makes theft
of a. weapon a continuous danger, no matter how stringent be
the precautionary measures taken. The world-wide expansion
of technological knowledge and sophistication, plus the stead-
ily increasing number of countries with nuclear materials
which could be diverted or stolen, inexorably increases the
odds in favor of some terrorist group's acquiring the capa-
bility of fabricating some sort of nuclear device.
Soviet Military Posture
During the past decade, the Soviets have improved their
military capabilities over a broad spectrum. They have ex-
panded their strategic forces, improved their posture in the
West opposite NATO, expanded their forces opposite China, and
given the navy new capabilities for extended operations. In
recent times, the emphasis has been on modernization rather
than expansion, but gradual growth is continuing in some ele-
ments.
The Soviets are modernizing their strategic missile forces.
They have developed several new intercontinental ballistic
missiles in the last few years, and some are now in the field.
Most of these new missiles can carry multiple independently-
targetable reentry vehicles.
Since the early fifties, the naval doctrine in the USSR
Photocopy from George Bush Presidential Library
has changed from one that concentrated on local operations to
defend the homeland to one that now encompasses world-wide
operations. In line with this new doctrine, the Soviet navy
has acquired modern ships and submarines which now regularly
operate in all of the major oceans of the world. In addition
to its combat potential, the navy is increasingly able to
provide a tangible presence in many parts of the world that
acts to support Soviet diplomacy.
--continued
The Soviets have a large air force deployed throughout
the USSR and East Europe. The bomber force is largely out-
dated in terms of both age and capabilities, but new aircraft
designs are coming along. Over the past three years, the So-
viets have been replacing some older tactical aircraft with
modern aircraft that have improved ranges and load carrying
capabilities.
The Soviets have a large and gradually expanding army.
The main concentrations of troops are along the Sino-Soviet
border and opposite NATO in the western USSR and Eastern Eu-
rope, The ground forces are being supplied with new equip-
ment, including tanks, armored personnel carriers, artillery
pieces and antiaircraft weapons. Also, in the last few years
there has been an increased trend toward tactical mobility.
do put
Dr
The Soviets have always stressed defensive aspects of
military planning and they have an impressive force of surface-
Photocopy from George Bush Presidential Library
to-air missiles and interceptors defending the USSR. The in-
terceptor force ranges from the newest high-speed, high-alti-
tude aircraft to some designed more than twenty years ago.
They have, however, only a limited antiballistic missile de-
fense system. This system, located near Moscow, has remained
essentially unchanged for the past several years.
2
Lebanon
The civil war that has ravaged Lebanon for the past year
stems from an attempt to change the political balance on which
the government is based--a careful division of power between
Christians and Muslims. The pressure for change comes from
a growing Muslim population--partly due to the influx of
Palestinians in recent years--and from an increasingly assert-
ive Muslim left. The collapse of innumerable cease-fires and
attempted political solutions is not only due to hardening
attitudes but to the availability of arms to the various fac-
tions on both sides from a variety of foreign suppliers.
The chances of ending the fighting with a workable po-
litical arrangement now rests primarily on Syria, with its
troop-supported mediation effort, and on the Palestinians,
whose military forces are supporting the Syrian effort. The
Photocopy from George Bush Presidential Library
Syrian Palestinian agreement announced on April 16 calls for
a cease-fire and for a joint Lebanese-Palestinian-Syrian super-
visory committee. For the moment, at least, both the Muslim
leftists and the Christians are tentatively cooperating with
the agreement, which calls for the early election of a new
president to replace Christian President Franjiyah.
If the elections are delayed beyond the end of this month,
however, the situation is likely to deteriorate rapidly. A
large-scale renewal of the fighting could cause Syrian Presi-
dent Asad to send in additional forces in an effort to restore
--continued
order quickly. Such a move, however, would entail grave danger
of misjudging the limits of Israeli tolerance of Syria's pres-
ence in Lebanon.
Photocopy from George Bush Presidential Library
2
Egypt and the USSR
President Sadat's abrogation of the Soviet-Egyptian
friendship treaty last month and his subsequent termination
of Soviet access to naval repair facilities at Alexandria are
the latest manifestations of the steady decline in relations
that began when Sadat took office in 1970. The Soviets' vir-
tual embargo on arms was the main reason for Sadat's actions.
Since the 1973 war, Soviet arms deliveries. to Egypt have
dropped off sharply, and only a few shiploads of spare parts
have arrived since mid-1975.
The abrogation of the treaty has been a political em-
barrassment to Soviet leaders, who are already smarting under
other setbacks to Moscow's prestige in the Middle East. The
Soviets have reacted by intensifying their polemic with Egypt
Photocopy from George Bush Presidential Library
and, for the first time, attacking Sadat by name. The So-
viets, however, are not likely to take any open, dramatic ac-
tion against Egypt--such as breaking diplomatic ties--because
they want to retain some ability to influence future events
in Egypt. Nonetheless, the Soviets may adopt an even tougher
line in their economic dealings by gradually curtailing work
on remaining economic aid projects in Egypt and by welching
on trade commitments,
--continued
The Soviets probably are calculating that any discontent
with Sadat will eventually lead either to a change of policy
toward Moscow or to a new regime in Cairo. They are banking
on Western inability to meet Sadat's military and economic
needs and think that the Egyptian military will not stand for
their armaments becoming "scrap." In this regard, the Soviets
undoubtedly are upset by reports that China has agreed to pro-
vide Egypt with some limited military aid.
Photocopy from George Bush Presidential Library
2
Cuba/Africa
The end of the civil war in Angola does not mean that
the large Cuban contingent in Angola will soon return home.
Cuban troops and military and civilian advisers will be in
Angola for some time to come performing a variety of military,
economic, and political tasks aimed at consolidating the au-
thority of the Angolan government. The reservoir of Cuban
manpower in Angola also may be tapped eventually to support
insurgencies in Rhodesia and Namibia. Indeed, a small number
of Cuban advisers reportedly is already in Mozambique to sur-
vey the potential and needs of the Rhodesian guerrillas being
trained in that country. The Cubans undoubtedly regard their
Angolan venture as a signal success. In particular, it has
in their eyes strengthened their revolutionary credentials
among Third World countries.
Photocopy from George Bush Presidential Library
The size of the Cuban presence in Angola has tended to
obscure the fact that Havana has personnel in a number of other
African countries, including Algeria, Congo, Guinea, Guinea-
Bissau, Tanzania, and Zambia. The number of Cubans in these
nations is relatively modest, and most serve as military ad-
visers or as civilian technicians working in local industries,
providing medical services, and participating in various mili-
tary and civilian construction projects.
J
China
The recent sudden changes in the upper levels of the
Chinese regime are a reflection of a leadership struggle that
has been underway for more than ten years. The latest go-
round is almost certainly not the end of the struggle, which
could break out again at almost any time, Further rapid
shifts and dislocations are virtually certain in any event
after Mao dies. In recent years the instability in Peking
has not resulted in any abrupt changes in Chinese domestic
or foreign policies, but the potential for such changes re-
mains SO long as the leadership question remains unresolved.
Although it is not likely, a slide into the domestic
chaos and violence of the Cultural Revolution period (1966-
69) cannot be ruled out. Major shifts in foreign policy are
Photocopy-fr from George Bush Presidential Library
also unlikely, but the struggle for power, if it becomes
acute enough, could lead to an attempt to ameliorate current
tensions with the Soviet Union, or, conversely, to a move
away from: the present emphasis on fairly good relations with
the United States and other developed nations.
Look around workel trick what that Man
.) NATO -
2) prossures - Sa Flank of Europe
Afrea
3)
Japan korren