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22
29
4
The Washington Post
NOV
6 1990
In West, U.S. Stands
Alone on Warming Issue
Europeans Display Unity on Stabilizing Gases
tives. The United States also has
By Michael Weisskopf
Environmental Protection Agen-
further to go to combat per capita
and William Booth
AB
cy Administrator William K. Reilly
emissions of carbon dioxide, which
Washington Post Staff Writers
is the strongest advocate of direct
more than double those of Japan
action on global warming within the
and France.
Preparing for a major interna-
administration, but has fought an
In place of targeted cuts, officials
tional climate conference now
uphill battle against economic con-
such as Bromley point to research
meeting in Geneva, the World Me-
servatives led by Sununu. And he
programs and the incidental carbon
teorological Organization circulated
lost a key ally when Secretary of
dioxide reductions achieved by oth-
a draft declaration reflecting the
State James A. Baker III, who has
er environmental policies. Still, car-
commitment of European govern-
sided with Reilly on key policy dis-
bon dioxide emissions are expected
ments to stabilize the production of
gases believed to cause global
putes with Sununu, including last
to grow 15 percent by the year
warming.
February's decision by Sununu to
2000.
water down a speech Bush deliv-
"They don't want to think about
The United States responded
ered to an international conference
the tough decisions they would have
with a series of caveats and weak-
here, recused himself from policy
to make if they admitted the prob-
ening amendments as long as the
debates that could influence his oil
lem is real," said Sen. Albert Gore
declaration itself.
and gas interests.
Jr. (D-Tenn.), a leading critic of the
While virtually every Western
Anticipating how isolated the
administration's global warming
industrialized nation has committed
United States will be in Geneva,
position.
itself to specific timetables for sta-
Reilly, sources sai warned John
A year ago, Bromley said the ad-
bilizing or reducing the gases that
Knauss, director of the National
ministration would await the out-
cause the greenhouse effect, the
Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin-
come of a U.N.-sponsored assess-
Bush administration remains skep-
istration, the administration's rep-
ment of global warming before for-
tical that global warming is scien-
resentative at the conference: "Roll
mulating remedial policies. But
tifically valid and refuses to take
up your sleeves and give blood,
when the report in late September
any direct action that threatens the
John. We're just going to get beaten
concluded that the planet will warm
way the United States generates
up."
5 degrees by the end of next cen-
energy and runs its economy.
The administration's caution on
tury, Bromley said it raised as many
Emphasizing the wait-and-see
the issue has been a disappointment
questions as it did answers.
policy, White House Science Advis-
to environmentalists, given Pres-
"Before we commit ourselves to
er D. Allan Bromley noted the ad-
ident Bush's pledge during his 1988
massive mitigation schemes, we
ministration has budgeted $500
campaign to use the "White House
want to be sure of what the costs
million budget for research into cli-
effect" to combat the "greenhouse
and what the effects will be, partic-
mate change and said more conclu-
effect," the popular term for de-
ularly on a regional basis," Bromley
sive evidence is necessary before
scribing the effect of gases that
said.
the nation restricts use of critical
blanket the Earth and trap solar
Bromley said, for example, that
fossil fuels-oil, coal and gas-that
heat. The buildup of those gases has
of the six major climate models,
produce carbon dioxide when
led to fears that the planet will
three predict that the American
burned.
warm significantly.
midwest will be hotter and drier in
"I think the taxpayers would want
European governments, with
the coming century, while three
that," he said in an interview.
popular environmental movements
predict cooler, wetter weather. He
As head of a White House task
to placate, have created pressure
has repeatedly said that the climate
force on global warming, Bromley
for Bush by moving faster with con-
models are not accurate enough to
has played a key role in the admin-
crete targets for stabilizing emis-
base public policy.
sions of greenhouse gases by the
For the present, many members
istration's efforts to develop a co-
turn of the century. But the admin-
of the scientific community support
hesive policy on global warming.
istration defends its go-slow ap-
a "no regrets" policy, in which the
The group meets every six weeks
proach by noting the economic and
United States and other govern-
and reports to the domestic policy
political differences from Europe,
ments would attempt to limit the
council and White House Chief of
where nuclear energy and high en-
production of carbon dioxide and
Staff John H. Sununu, the leading
ergy taxes are accepted alterna-
other gases for reasons that made
skeptic of global warming.
sense even if there is no significant
warming trend in the world climate.
CONTINUED
5
CONTINUED
The Washington Post
NOV
6 1990
The administration supports such
"an insurance policy," said Bromley,
even as it remains skeptical over
the prospect of global warming.
Passage of the Clean Air Act, he
said, will limit any possibility of
warming, he said, since it will foster
more efficient use of energy. The
United States is also committed to
According to the Energy Depart-
phasing out chlorofluorocarbons
ment, the price for stabilizing global
(CFCs), another important warming
warming emissions by 2005 would
gas.
be a tax of $100 on each ton of car-
But more ambitious plans to cut
bon contained in fossil fuels. That
carbon dioxide run into the hard
would nearly triple the price of coal
realities of an economy dependent
and double the price of oil.
on fossil fuels as its energy staple.
"If you impose unnecessarily high
Economic models to predict the
taxes or punitive measures on one
cost of mitigating global warming
sector of the economy, you might
are still in their infancy. While some
penalize economic growth," said
analyses make the cost seem almost
Mark Kerrigan, associate deputy
negligible, others project huge
undersecretary of energy.
costs, which have been a major
At yesterday's meeting in Gene-
cause of concern for Sununu and
va, the United States appeared to
other administration officials.
prevail in its efforts to water down
An interagency group formed by
the conference declaration to be
the Energy Department recently
issued on the final session Wednes-
put the costs at $50 billion a year-
day.
or 1 percent of the nation's annual
While the preliminary text had
Gross National Product-to stabi-
proposed specific targets to stabi-
lize global warming emissions by
lize emissions by industrialized na-
the year 2005.
tions, the latest draft "welcomes"
"You're talking about major
the European commitments but
changes in the structure of econom-
omits any reference to responsibil-
ic activity," said Richard Schmalen-
ities of other countries.
see, a member off the White House
Council of Economic Advisers.
"There is the brute fact we use a lot
of energy. If you're going to cut
down carbon dioxide, you're going
to have to figure out how to use less
coal. History gives us no reason to
think it will be cheap."
6
The Washington Post
NOV
9
1990
Jessica Mathews
Rather, it lies in the chancy leap from
science to policy. In this disorienting
The
A27
twilight zone, it is revealed that the best
scientists, being mortal, rely on hunch
and intuition like the rest of us, and
policy makers effortlessly cloak their
ideological, political or personal predilec-
Greenhouse
tions in the folds of scientific uncertain-
ty.
With a government hamstrung be-
Administration officials are more than
tween two political parties, each of them
a little patronizing in their dismissal of
Holdout
internally divided, and a public fearful of
other countries' greenhouse control tar-
recession and scornful of its govern-
gets. The goals, they say, are unsup-
ment, the United States right now is
ported by serious analysis showing how
poorly equipped to contemplate, much
The surprise announcement this
they will be achieved and at what cost.
less embrace, change. Wholesale cuts in
week that Europe had committed it-
On alternate days of the week they say
CO2 emissions may well yield net eco-
self to putting a lid on emissions of
the goals are cheap rhetoric and that
nomic benefits, but every step in that
the global warming gas carbon diox-
these countries are actually secretly
direction will hurt someone. When
ide completes the diplomatic isolation
relying on the United States to hold the
whale oil gave way to kerosene, the
of the United States on greenhouse
line and save them from themselves. All
economy saw the change as a big plus.
policy.
of these apparently grown-up countries,
Not so the whaling industry. In modern
Between them, the European Com-
in this view, either don't know what
terms, those who could be hurt are
munity and the European Free Trade
they're talking about or don't believe
powerful industries with friends at both
Association represent all 17 countries of
what they are saying.
ends of Pennsylvania Avenue.
Western Europe (except Malta). Their
But how accurate the studies are-
But the real key to the U.S. position
decision means that members will aim
whether Germany ultimately cuts its
is White House Chief of Staff John
to hold their emissions of carbon dioxide
emissions by 25 percent or half of
Sununu. He has a simple version of the
in the year 2000 to the same level as in
that-is not what matters. The goals
climate models that run on supercompu-
1990, but does not interfere with more
are meaningful for precisely the reason
ters at places like the National Center
ambitious targets set by Germany, Den-
the administration opposes them: they
for Atmospheric Research set up in his
mark, the Netherlands and others,
shape policy, they commit a government
office, as if in his spare time he could
which call for cuts ranging up to 25
to try.
uncover some flaw in the scientists'
percent.
Nor can domestic political pressure
reasoning. His fierce personal interest
In the Pacific, New Zealand also plans
explain why so many countries would
and opposition to dealing with the ener-
a 25 percent CO2 cut. Within the past
adopt phony goals. Many of these coun-
gy-related greenhouse gases has cleared
few weeks Australia (which, like the
tries harbor vocal and growing Green
the field of potential opposing voices in
United States, is large, thinly populated
parties, but in no case is greenhouse
the Cabinet. Secretary of State James
and heavily reliant on coal), set a goal of
warming such a priority public issue as
Baker has gone so far as to have a
a 20 percent cut, and Japan abandoned
to drive governments to adopt chal-
formal legal recusal drafted, removing
its prior support for the U.S. position.
lenging policies they don't believe in.
himself from the debate on the grounds
Japan's goal holds per-capita emissions
Quite the contrary, governments are
it could affect his oil and gas holdings. (
steady, but allows for expected popula-
ahead of public opinion on this issue.
Whereas managing the Mideast crisis
tion growth.
Why, then, would governments
does not?)
Canada also plans to stabilize its emis-
choose-as the administration sees
Being a minority of one does not
sions. This leaves the United States as
it-self-inflicted economic wounds?
make the U.S. position wrong. But,
the only developed country arguing that
Here is the nub. They don't share the
given the lineup of governments taking
it is too soon to begin slowing these
United States' assessment that there
the opposite view, it should give us
emissions. In stark contrast to the oth-
will be a high economic cost. Many,
pause. There's reason to be questioning
ers, its yearly CO2 outputs will likely
including Japan, Germany and the Neth-
not their analysis but our own.
grow by about 15 percent by 2000,
erlands, are saying that they expect a
unless policies change.
net profit from energy efficiency gains
The split between the United States
and through eventual market dominance
and the rest of the developed world has
of innovative high-efficiency technolo-
nothing to do with science The just-
gies and alternative energy sources.
completed World Climate Conference
Interestingly, the most ambitious CO2
issued another in a long string of inter-
targets have been adopted by countries
national consensus documents on the
that are already among the most energy
scientific aspects of greenhouse warm-
efficient (measured either by energy use
ing. American scientists have played the
per person or per dollar of GNP). This
leading role in all of them.
would not be the first time those who
are first to explore a technological fron-
tier are the first to see its full potential.
4
The Washington Post
NOV 9 1990
Getting Warmer
T
HIS YEAR, so far, has been the warmest
Some of the effects of warming would be benign.
since scientists began keeping records more
Certainly the Soviets, with their economy failing,
than a century ago. It wasn't noticeable here
were grateful for an early spring, much rain and the
in the United States, where the past summer was
unusually large harvests that followed. But other
only a little hotter than normal. The most dramati-
impacts may be less welcome. As the people at the
cally unusual weather was in Asia, particularly in
White House say, nobody knows.
Siberia and particularly last March. The 1980s were
Most of the world's governments met in Geneva
the warmest decade on record, and now another
this week to try to work out a joint strategy for
decade has begun with this unprecedentedly warm
cutting down the production of greenhouse gases.
year.
The United States was conspicuous in its refusal to
That doesn't amount to proof that the world has
commit itself to any reduction or even to accept
entered a warming trend that will continue. Nor does
the need for one. Without the United States,
it prove that it's being caused by people burning fuel
nothing serious is likely to happen worldwide.
to generate energy. But the evidence is certainly
The Bush administration fears that any attempt
consistent with those possibilities, and this year's
to diminish the emissions of carbon dioxide-the
temperatures strengthen them.
inevitable result of burning oil, or coal or any fossil
The White House keeps arguing that the science of
fuel-would be intolerably disruptive and expen-
global warming is still unclear. True, no one knows
sive. But not necessarily. There's a lot the United
whether man-made carbon dioxide has yet begun to
States ought to be doing to reduce its dependence
make the world hotter or what the consequences
on imported oil, to protect the economy from
might be. But by the time warming becomes provable
Middle Eastern oil shocks, to encourage conserva-
under the rigorous standards of science, the process
tion generally and to raise efficiency. By doing
will have developed a gigantic momentum, and the
that, the country would also reduce the risk of
world will require decades even to slow it down.
drastic change in the climate. By refusing to deal
Since the consequences are unpredictable, it
with the steady rise in carbon dioxide emissions,
doesn't seem very smart to drift headlong into them
the Bush administration is ignoring dangers that
with as little thought as this country is giving to them.
are literally incalculable.
3
NOV
9 1990
The Washington Post
Baker Sitting Out Global Warming
By Michael Weisskopf
Washington Post Staff Writer
A25
Debate
In his first speech after taking office, Sec-
retary of State James A. Baker III called for
immediate steps to combat the threat of global
warming, noting that even though scientific
questions remain, "Time will not make the
proven and too costly to combat in an econ-
problem go away."
omy that runs on coal, oil and gas.
His call to action in January 1989 cast Bak-
Last February, Sununu ordered major re-
er against the grain of Bush administration
visions in a presidential speech endorsed by
policy-a skeptical, go-slow approach to the
Reilly and Baker that was designed to under-
problem. Still, he stuck to his guns in internal
line the seriousness of the problem and bur-
nish Bush's reputation as the world leader
debates, siding with environmental officials
most dedicated to its solution.
and pushing for stronger U.S. leadership on an
Baker, officials said, also played a key role
increasingly important diplomatic issue.
in persuading Bush to host the first negotiat-
Now as support builds in Europe for a treaty
ing session for a framework convention on
to cut warming gases, the top U.S. foreign
global warming to be held here this February.
policy officer has taken himself out of the de-
Since Baker dropped out of the debate, the
bate, further isolating environmentalists in the
administration has moved even further from
administration.
U.S. allies and leading trading partners. At an
According to administration officials, Baker
international conference this week, the United
has formally recused himself because of oil
States refused to join the Western European
and gas holdings that create the potential for
nations, Japan and Australia in setting targets
conflict of interest. When burned by cars or
limiting the emission of carbon dioxide.
factories, oil produces the primary warming
The February meeting is expected to meas-
gas. Every plan to curb global warming in-
ure the impact of Baker's recusal. With Eu-
cludes measures to discourage or cut oil use.
ropean nations likely to press for protocols
In a statement filed Feb. 5, Baker listed his
committing participants to stabilization poli-
oil interests and said that he would abstain
cies, administration conservatives would pre-
from "any particular matter that has a direct
fer to scuttle negotiations rather than accept
and predictable effect upon the price of do-
global warming targets, officials said.
mestic oil and gas."
"When it comes to facing down Sununu and
The statement does not specifically rule out
Darman, there's no substitute for Baker," one
participation in global warming decisions, and
official said. The official did not rule out inter-
a State Department spokesman refused to
vention by Baker if he considered it politically
clarify how the recusal works in practice. But
beneficial to Bush.
administration officials say that Baker has not
Environmentalists who had been counting
been involved in the issue for months and in-
on Baker as an ally question why his involve-
dicated last summer he would remain unin-
ment in global warming would pose any more
volved.
of a conflict than the Persian Gulf policy.
His recusal leaves Environmental Protec-
Bush addressed such potential conflicts of
tion Agency Administrator William K. Reilly
interest on Aug. 8 when he directed the White
among Bush's top advisers as the lone advo-
House counsel to review the financial inter-
cate of aggressive policy measures to head off
ests of several Cabinet officers, including Bak-
what many scientists predict will be significant
er, involved in the Iraq crisis.
warming of the Earth's surface by the middle
of the next century. Eighteen European na-
tions are committed to freezes or cuts in emis-
sions of carbon dioxide-the principal warm-
ing gas-by 2005.
Reilly has enjoyed Baker's support at key
junctures of administration debates, forming
an alliance against White House Chief of Staff
John H. Sununu and Office of Management and
Budget Director Richard G. Darman. They
belittle global warming as scientifically un-
4
NOV
The Washington Times
9 1990
Price of cleaner air set at $50
billion plus jobs, businesses
pose half the nation's population to
By Ronald A. Taylor
A7
According to his organization's
unhealthful air pollution levels.
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
economic analysis, the new law will
The pending revisions would im-
add $50 billion a year to the $32 bil-
pose a tough new round of emissions
The revised Clean Air Act will add
lion the nation currently spends to
controls on industry to control acid
$50 billion to the annual price of
meet existing federal and state clean
rain. It also would set strict limits on
cleaning up the nation's air, cost
air laws.
emissions of 190 toxic chemicals and
600,000 jobs and force many small
The costs "will be passed on to
require motor vehicle tailpipe con-
businesses to shut down, an industry
consumers in the form of higher
trol in 1994 models to reduce emis-
watchdog group claims.
prices of almost all consumer prod-
sions by 98 percent over 1970 mod-
William Fay, administrator of the
ucts," he said.
els.
Clean Air Working Group, said his
"You add that much to the cost of
Achieving those goals will be
organization supports the Clean Air
doing something, and you're going to
costly and, in some cases, impossi-
Act now awaiting President Bush's
pinch something," he said.
ble, Mr. Fay said.
signature. But he noted it will exact
The Clean Air Working Group is
Some of the hardest-hit segments
a dear price from industry, small
an ad hoc organization composed of
of the economy will be small busi-
business and labor.
representatives from the manufac-
nesses, he said. The new law targets
turing, auto and steel industries. It
dry cleaners, bakeries, brewers,
was formed to lobby Congress dur-
printing and painting shops, auto re-
ing passage of the new Clean Air
pair and service stations for tough
Act. Yesterday's briefing was de-
new permit requirements in addi-
scribed as its last.
tion to socking them with strict
If the 700 pages of pending revi-
emissions controls.
sions are enacted, the Clean Air Act
Such new costs on enterprises
will have evolved from a broad stat-
that commonly earn $100,000 a year
ute that set ambitious, but imprecise
in after-tax revenues "must be eaten
clean air goals in 1970 to a law sur-
somewhere," Mr. Fay said. "They
passed in complexity only by the In-
don't just evaporate into the air."
ternal Revenue Code.
Smokestack emission control
Despite substantial clean air
equipment to control acid-rain form-
gains since the 1970 law was en-
ing emissions from the dirtiest 111
acted, high smog, carbon monoxide
electric power generating plants
and particulate levels regularly ex-
may not be available in time to meet
the 1993 deadline set in the compro-
mise measure.
The schedule for marketing
cleaner-burning reformulated gas-
oline in the nine cities with the worst
smog problems will be tough to
meet, he said. The petroleum indus-
try will not be able to retool refiner-
ies fast enough to make the new fuel
available by the 1995 deadline.
The president is expected to sign
the bill despite objections within the
administration, especially from
Council on Economic Advisers chief
Michael Boskin.
13
AUG 10 1990
THE DENVER POST
CU environmental alpine lab
keeps eye on global warming
But marmots chewing at foundation of research site
By Bruce Finley
Denver Post Staff Writer
10
NIWOT RIDGE - Marmots are not
Other studies focus on changes
taking kindly to a high-tech environmental
in vegetation, behavior of gophers
laboratory being built here on their
ter, who expects to work long
and habits of Mexican humming-
11,565-foot habitat west of Boulder.
hours in the lab.
birds who come to the Rockies ev-
But the results of research conducted at
Construction crews are hauling
ery year to mate.
the University of Colorado alpine lab -
120-pound slabs of rubber and
But marmots gnawing persis-
one of the world's premier sites for moni-
foam to insulate the building from
tently at foundations of the lab are
toring global change - are expected to
wind-chill temperatures as low as
not the subject of any study.
outweigh the intrusion.
minus 100 degrees.
Construction workers have tried
Monitoring of air, precipitation, plants
and animals in the protected alpine habi-
Nearly invisible
repeatedly to get rid of the bristly
beasts with dog repellent and by
tat already has provided some of the best
Solar panels and a wind turbine
setting salt licks away from the
clues about how human activity may be
provide power. A gravel exterior
site.
changing Earth's climate.
helps the lab blend into the gray,
But workers find new chunks of
"We're going to be able to see the first
granite terrain, making it nearly
wood missing every morning.
signs of us screwing up the Earth," said
invisible from surrounding peaks
"This was the work of a mar-
CU researcher David Yamaguchi, one of
along the Continental Divide.
mot," Price lamented yesterday,
the international cadre of scientists con-
A similar hut may be built in the
running his fingers over fresh mar-
ducting alpine studies at the site.
Arctic if this lab proves successful,
mot teeth marks.
"A place like this can start providing
said Jim Price, supervisor of con-
He planned to erect wire fences
computer models predicting global warm-
struction.
to protect the foundation.
ing with real data."
The CU building should be com-
pleted within two weeks.
On marmots' side
The $110,000 lab, funded by CU and the
National Science Foundation, is 60-foot-
Research in progress on Niwot
Meanwhile, some environmental
long half cylinder that resembles one of
Ridge includes collection of air
scientists are siding with the mar-
the Quonset buildings used for temporary
samples used by the National Oce-
mots.
housing after World War II.
anic and Atmospheric Administra-
They want to establish a policy
It will replace a weather-beaten shack
tion to measure global levels of
to protect Niwot Ridge from re-
used to house scientific equipment at the
pollutants such as chlorofluorocar-
search-related litter and restrict
site, which has been designated a "Bio-
bons that erode the atmosphere.
walking to designated paths - so
sphere Reserve" by the United Nations.
CU researchers this year docu-
as not to disrupt marmot life-
In the past, scientists on skis have risk-
mented the earliest snow melt on
styles.
ed their lives amid 160 mph winter winds
record on the ridge - evidence
Chewing "is their nature,"
to collect data from instruments erected
suggesting global warming could
Schuetz said. "And we have to live
on Niwot Ridge. The new lab will offer a
be at work.
with that."
comfortable shelter.
"Working up here, I love it more than
any work I've done in my lifetime," says
Hans-Uwe Schuetz, 30, a landscape ecolo-
gist from Germany's University of Meuns-
91
AUG
1
I
1990
THE DENVER POST
Gas prices steep
on Western Slope
Aspen service station tops off at $1.94 a gallon
By Julie Stafford
2B
across the country averaged $1.25
Special to The Denver Post
a gallon, down 3 cents from Thurs-
Gas prices aren't going downhill
day. However, an informal survey
on Colorado's Western Slope,
by The Denver Post showed that
where unleaded fuel was selling
prices in Colorado averaged $1.42
yesterday for $1.51 a gallon in
- 17 cents higher than aaa fig-
some resort towns.
ures.
Gas prices dipped a bit national-
Colorado gas prices have shot up
ly, but that trend was bucked in re-
almost 20 cents since Iraq invaded
sorts like Vail and Aspen.
Kuwait 10 days ago.
The West Vail Texaco and the
Nowhere is the trend more in
Vail Conoco stations both reported
evidence than the Western Slope.
unleaded. gas selling for $1.51 a
Conner's Aspen Amoco report-
gallon. Super unleaded was at
edly listed one of the highest full-
$1.61.
service premium prices in the
Most stations have reported sta-
country - $1.949 a gallon. The
ble gas prices since Tuesday. Rick
station's owner, Claude Conner,
Dilling, manager of the West Vail
would not give out prices over the
Texaco, said his prices dropped 4
telephone, but did say he believes
cents a gallon yesterday.
his self-service prices are competi-
Frisco Amoco reported the low-
tive in the area.
est price for unleaded gasoline at
Conner also said he may discon-
$1.32 a gallon. Bob's Downtown
Conoco in Steamboat Springs had
tinue the full-service option.
the second-lowest price, $1.389,
"We're considering it very strong-
ly," he said. "It's going to be too
and the Keystone Texaco was at
bad. We're the only full-serve in
$1.39.
Aspen."
Unleaded gasoline at the Old
Snowmass Conoco in Basalt cost
Alpine Standard in Vail, report-
$1.49 a gallon. "We haven't been
edly at $1.799 for full-service pre-
changing our prices until the load
mium earlier this week, already
of gas is in the ground," said Bill
has discontinued full service.
Welcher, co-owner of the station.
"The price got out of hand," said
Welcher said his price jumped
Doug Sterkel, president of Alpine
about 10 cents yesterday after a
Ventures.
more costly shipment of gas ar-
Sterkel said his self-service
rived.
prices were "the cheapest in
The American Automobile Asso-
town." Unleaded was at $1.439 a
ciation reported yesterday that
gallon and premium unleaded was
self-service, no-lead gas prices
selling for $1.559.
92
THE WASHINGTON POST
In West, U.S. Stands
Alone on Warming Issue
Europeans Display Unity on Stabilizing Gases
By Michael Weisskopf
putes with Sununu, including last
and William Booth
February's decision by Sununu to
Washington Post Staff Writers
water down a speech Bush deliv-
ered to an international conference
Preparing for a major intes ma-
here, recused himself from policy
tional climate conference 1 10W
debates that could influence his oil
meeting in Geneva, the World 1 Me-
and gas interests.
teorological Organization circula ted
Anticipating how isolated the
a draft declaration reflecting the
United States will be in Geneva,
commitment of European gove rn-
Reilly, sources said, warned John
ments to stabilizé the production of
Knauss, director of the National
D. ALLAN BROMLEY
WILLIAM K. REIL
gases believed to cause glo bal
Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin-
said more evidence is necessary
advocates action agains
warming.
istration, the administration's rep-
The United States respond ed
resentative at the conference: "Roll
come of a U.N.-sponsored assess-
are still in their infancy. W
with a series of caveats and wea ik-
up your sleeves and give blood,
ment of global warming before for-
analyses make the cost se
ening amendments as long as 6 he
John. We're just going to get beaten
mulating remedial policies. But
negligible, others proje
declaration itself.
up."
when the report in late September
costs, which have been
While virtually every Weste rn
The administration's caution on
concluded that the planet will warm
cause of concern for Su
industrialized nation has committs ed
the issue has been a disappointment
5 degrees by the end of next cen-
other administration offici
itself to specific timetables for st a-
to environmentalists, given Pres-
tury, Bromley said it raised as many
An interagency group f
bilizing or reducing the gases the at
ident Bush's pledge during his 1988
questions as it did answers.
the Energy Department
campaign to use the "White House
"Before we commit ourselves to
put the costs at $50 billior
cause the greenhouse effect, th e
effect" to combat the "greenhouse
massive mitigation schemes, we
or 1 percent of the nation
Bush administration remains skej
effect," the popular term for de-
want to be sure of what the costs
Gross National Product-
tical that global warming is scies
scribing the effect of gases that
and what the effects will be, partic-
lize global warming emi
tifically valid and refuses to tak e
blanket the Earth and trap solar
ularly on a regional basis," Bromley
the year 2005.
any direct action that threatens th e
heat. The buildup of those gases has
said.
"You're talking about
way the United States generate 8
led to fears that the planet will
Bromley said, for example, that
changes in the structure 0
energy and runs its economy.
warm significantly.
of the six major climate models,
ic activity," said Richard S
Emphasizing the wait-and-se
European governments, with
three predict that the American
see, a member off the Wh
policy, White House Science Advis
popular environmental movements
midwest will be hotter and drier in
Council of Economic
er D. Allan Bromley noted the ad
to placate, have created pressure
the coming century, while three
"There is the brute fact We
ministration has budgeted $50#
for Bush by moving faster with con-
predict cooler, wetter weather. He
of energy. If you're goin
million budget for research into child
crete targets for stabilizing emis-
has repeatedly said that the climate
down carbon dioxide, you
mate change and said more conclus
sions of greenhouse gases by the
models are not accurate enough to
to have to figure out how t
sive evidence is necessary before
turn of the century. But the admin-
base public policy.
coal. History gives us no
the nation restricts use of critic a
istration defends its go-slow ap-
For the present, many members
think it will be cheap."
fossil fuels-oil, coal and gas-tha
proach by noting the economic and
of the scientific community support
According to the Energ
produce carbon dioxide whe
political differences from Europe,
a "no regrets" policy, in which the
ment, the price for stabiliz
burned.
where nuclear energy and high en-
United States and other govern-
warming emissions by 20
"I think the taxpayers would war
ergy taxes are accepted alterna-
ments would attempt to limit the
be a tax of $100 on each t
that," he said in an interview.
tives. The United States also has
production of carbon dioxide and
bon contained in fossil fu
As head of a White House tas
further to go to combat per capita
other gases for reasons that made
would nearly triple the pri
force on global warming, Bromle
emissions of carbon dioxide, which
sense even if there is no significant
and double the price of oil.
has played a key role in the admin
more than double those of Japan
warming trend in the world climate.
"If you impose unnecess
istration's efforts to develop a co
and France.
The administration supports such
taxes or punitive measure
hesive policy on global warming
In place of targeted cuts, officials
"an insurance policy," said Bromley,
sector of the economy, y
The group meets every six week:
such as Bromley point to research
even as it remains skeptical over
penalize economic grow
and reports to the domestic policy
programs and the incidental carbon
the prospect of global warming.
Mark Kerrigan, associat
council and White House Chief of
dioxide reductions achieved by oth-
Passage of the Clean Air Act, he
undersecretary of energy.
Staff John H. Sununu, the leading
er environmental policies. Still, car-
said, will limit any possibility of
At yesterday's meeting
bon dioxide emissions are expected
warming, he said, since it will foster
skeptic of global warming.
va, the United States app
to grow 15 percent by the year
more efficient use of energy. The
prevail in its efforts to wa
Environmental Protection Agen-
2000.
United States is also committed to
the conference declarati
cy Administrator William K. Reilly
"They don't want to think about
phasing out chlorofluorocarbons
issued on the final session
is the strongest advocate of direct
the tough decisions they would have
(CFCs), another important warming
day.
action on global warming within the
to make if they admitted the prob-
gas.
While the preliminary
Knauss, director of the National
D. ALLAN BROMLEY
ments to stabilizé the production of
U.S. pro
gases believed to cause glo bal
Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin-
said more evidence is necessary
advocates action against warming
that Doh
warming.
istration, the administration's rep-
ing a B
The United States respond ed
resentative at the conference: "Roll
come of a U.N.-sponsored assess-
are still in their infancy. While some
ago, mig
up your sleeves and give blood,
ment of global warming before for-
analyses make the cost seem almost
Doher
with a series of caveats and wea ik-
John. We're just going to get beaten
mulating remedial policies. But
negligible, others project huge
oned wit
ening amendments as long as d he
declaration itself.
up."
when the report in late September
costs, which have been a major
and immi
The administration's caution on
concluded that the planet will warm
cause of concern for Sununu and
over whe
While virtually every Wester rn
the issue has been a disappointment
5 degrees by the end of next cen-
other administration officials.
ed politic
industrialized nation has committr ed
to environmentalists, given Pres-
tury, Bromley said it raised as many
An interagency group formed by
Britain v
itself to specific timetables for st a-
ident Bush's pledge during his 1988
questions as it did answers.
the Energy Department recently
the murd
bilizing or reducing the gases the at
campaign to use the "White House
"Before we commit ourselves to
put the costs at $50 billion a year-
His C
cause the greenhouse effect, th le
effect" to combat the "greenhouse
massive mitigation schemes, we
or 1 percent of the nation's annual
has put
Bush administration remains skej
effect," the popular term for de-
want to be sure of what the costs
Gross National Product-to stabi-
passiona
tical that global warming is scies 1-
scribing the effect of gases that
and what the effects will be, partic-
lize global warming emissions by
who see
tifically valid and refuses to tak e
blanket the Earth and trap solar
ularly on a regional basis," Bromley
the year 2005.
murdere
any direct action that threatens th e
heat. The buildup of those gases has
said.
"You're talking about major
gard him
way the United States generate S
led to fears that the planet will
Bromley said, for example, that
changes in the structure of econom-
political
energy and runs its economy.
warm significantly.
of the six major climate models,
ic activity," said Richard Schmalen-
Doher
Emphasizing the wait-and-se
European governments, with
three predict that the American
see, a member off the White House
that the
policy, White House Science Advis
popular environmental movements
midwest will be hotter and drier in
Council of Economic Advisers.
detention
er D. Allan Bromley noted the ad
to placate, have created pressure
the coming century, while three
"There is the brute fact we use a lot
tional pr
ministration has budgeted $50#
for Bush by moving faster with con-
predict cooler, wetter weather. He
of energy. If you're going to cut
vation d
million budget for research into chi
crete targets for stabilizing emis-
has repeatedly said that the climate
down carbon dioxide, you're going
process
mate change and said more conclus
sions of greenhouse gases by the
models are not accurate enough to
to have to figure out how to use less
sive evidence is necessary before
turn of the century. But the admin-
base public policy.
coal. History gives us no reason to
Hallow
the nation restricts use of critic a 1
istration defends its go-slow ap-
For the present, many members
think it will be cheap."
NEW
fossil fuels-oil, coal and gas-tha t
proach by noting the economic and
of the scientific community support
According to the Energy Depart-
man was
produce carbon dioxide whe 1
political differences from Europe,
a "no regrets" policy, in which the
ment, the price for stabilizing global
with m
burned.
where nuclear energy and high en-
United States and other govern-
warming emissions by 2005 would
"thrill"
ergy taxes are accepted alterna-
ments would attempt to limit the
be a tax of $100 on each ton of car-
"I think the taxpayers would war
homeles
that," he said in an interview.
tives. The United States also has
production of carbon dioxide and
bon contained in fossil fuels. That
others in
As head of a White House tas
further to go to combat per capita
other gases for reasons that made
would nearly triple the price of coal
Five
emissions of carbon dioxide, which
sense even if there is no significant
and double the price of oil.
force on global warming, Bromle
13 year
more than double those of Japan
warming trend in the world climate.
"If you impose unnecessarily high
has played a key role in the admin
Sunday 0
and France.
The administration supports such
taxes or punitive measures on one
death of
istration's efforts to develop a co
In place of targeted cuts, officials
"an insurance policy," said Bromley,
sector of the economy, you might
throat w
hesive policy on global warming
such as Bromley point to research
even as it remains skeptical over
penalize economic growth," said
About
The group meets every six week:
programs and the incidental carbon
the prospect of global warming.
Mark Kerrigan, associate deputy
wearing
and reports to the domestic policy
dioxide reductions achieved by oth-
Passage of the Clean Air Act, he
undersecretary of energy.
screame
council and White House Chief of
er environmental policies. Still, car-
said, will limit any possibility of
At yesterday's meeting in Gene-
ing last
Staff John H. Sununu, the leading
bon dioxide emissions are expected
warming, he said, since it will foster
va, the United States appeared to
homeles
skeptic of global warming.
to grow 15 percent by the year
more efficient use of energy. The
prevail in its efforts to water down
ter on
Environmental Protection Agen-
2000.
United States is also committed to
the conference declaration to be
Police
cy Administrator William K. Reilly
"They don't want to think about
phasing out chlorofluorocarbons
issued on the final session Wednes-
armed
is the strongest advocate of direct
the tough decisions they would have
(CFCs), another important warming
day.
and mea
action on global warming within the
to make if they admitted the prob-
gas.
While the preliminary text had
administration, but has fought an
lem is real," said Sen. Albert Gore
But more ambitious plans to cut
proposed specific targets to stabi-
Atlant
uphill battle against economic con-
Jr. (D-Tenn.), a leading critic of the
carbon dioxide run into the hard
lize emissions by industrialized na-
CAPE
servatives led by Sununu. And he
administration's global warming
realities of an economy dependent
tions, the latest draft "welcomes"
Space si
lost a key ally when Secretary of
position.
on fossil fuels as its energy staple.
the European commitments but
off on a
State James A. Baker III, who has
A year ago, Bromley said the ad-
Economic models to predict the
omits any reference to responsibil-
sided with Reilly on key policy dis-
ministration would await the out-
cost of mitigating global warming
ities of other countries.
Major Policy Issues
Second World Climate Conference
Ministerial Declaration
1. Targets and timetables for reducing greenhouse gas emissions
2. Stipulating the nature and content of a convention on
climate change
3. Financial Assistance
4. Statement concerning the scientific understandings
associated with climate change
5. Precautionary Principle
09/17/90 11:44
B 202 647 0753
F.03
-2-
1. Targets and timetables for reducing greenhouse gas emissions
Ministerial Declaration:
20. We stress, as a first step, the need to stabilize,
while ensuring stable development of the world economy,
emissions of greenhouse gases not controlled by the
Montreal Protocol. We note with appreciation the
unilateral commitments of some industrialized countries to
stabilize emissions at present level or reduce them by the
year 2000;
21. We agree that stabilization of greenhouse gas
emissions should be achieved by industrialized countries by
the year (2000) and should be set at (present) emission
levels;
22. We urge industrialized countries to establish
greenhouse gases reductions programmes aiming at achieving
at least 20% reduction of their current contribution to
global warming potential, possibly by the year 2005 and in
any case not later than the year 2010;
USG position:
we should not agree to specific targets and timetables. We
should take a comprehensive approach that includes all sources
and sinks of greenhouse gases and, in the short-term, Lake
those actions which are justified for reasons other than
climate change. USG proposed language for paras. 20 and 21
follows on page 3; para 22 should be deleted.
Houston Summit Communique:
"We are committed to undertake common efforts to limit
emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide
The Second World Climate Conference provides the
opportunity for all countries to consider the adoption of
strategies and measures for limiting or stabilizing
greenhouse gas emissions, and to discuss an effective
international response."
09/17/90 11:44
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-3-
21. We recognize that the most effective response strategies,
especially in the short-term, are those which are:
+
Justified for reasons other than climate change and
also provide beneficial influence on potential
climate change:
-
Economically efficient and cost effective,;
+
Able to serve multiple social, economic, and
environmental purposes:
2
Easily modified to respond to increased scientific ad
economic understanding of climate change;
&
Compatible with the concept of a comprehensive
approach addressing all sources and sinks of
greenhouse gases:
1
Compatible with the concept of sustainable economic
growth and development;
-
Administratively practical and effective in terms of
application, monitoring, and enforcement:
Inclusive of obligations by both industrialized and
2
developing countries.
22. We recommend that limitation and adaptation strategies be
considered as an integrated package that complement each
other to minimize net costs. These strategies should
include measures which limit emissions from greenhouse gas
sources as well as those which increase the ability of
natural systems to utilize greenhouse gases.
A
comprehensive approach is needed which considers the costs
of options for reducing emissions of different greenhouse
gases and the effects of those reductions on potential
09/17/90 11:45
F 202 647 0753
P.05
-4-
2. Stipulating the nature and content of a convention on
climate change
Ministerial Declaration:
23. We recommend that the specifications of the obligation
to stabilize and reduce greenhouse gases emissions be
realized in the form of: separate Protocols to the Climate
Convention. Some of these protocols could be negotiated
concurrently with the framework convention.
40. We recommend further that the Climate Convention and
associated protocols contain specific obligations and
address in particular:
(i) the enhancement of research and systematic
observation of climate
(ii) the control of greenhouse gas emissions
(iii) the adaptation to the adverse effects of climate
change in coastal areas
(iv) the needs of developing countries for financial
assistance in their development efforts and transfer of
technology
(v) appropriate institutional and decision-making
procedures.
USG position:
The declaration should not prejudge the negotiations. We
support the negotiation of a framework convention; at a
minimum, the declaration should be general and should advocate
a comprehensive approach that includes sources and sinks of all
greenhouse gases. USG would propose deleting para. 23; new USG
version of para. 40 follows on page 5.
Houston Summit Communique:
"We reiterate our support for the negotiation of a
framework convention on climate changes; implementing
protocols should consider all sources and sinks."
09/17/90 11:46
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F.06
-5-
35. We recommend that such negotiations consider the possible
elements compiled by the IPCC, and that the Framework
Convention be framed in such a way as to gain the support
of the largest possible number of states. We recommend
that the Framework Convention contain, at a minimum, general
principles and obligations, and that it advocate a
comprehensive approach that includes sources and sinks .of
all greenhouse gases.
09/17/90 11:46
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- G..
3. Financial Assistance
Ministerial Declaration:
27. We recommend that additional resources should
progressively, be mobilized to help developing countries
take the necessary measures to address climate change
consistent with their development needs.
USG position:
We will not commit to providing new and additional funding
which increases the overall budget. We are already giving the
environment a higher priority in our assistance funding, both
bilateral and multilateral, and believe that existing resources
and mechanisms must be fully utilized before new monies can be
considered. It will also be necessary to quantify the costs
associated with any actions in this area before consideration
of new funds can be justified. We will also note that the
provisions of the Montreal Protocol are not a precedent for
other environmental issues.
We understand that other countries may try to strengthen
this paragraph, calling for explicit reference to "new and
additional funding". USG proposes that para. 27 be deleted.
Houston Summit Communique:
"We recognize that developing countries will benefit from
increased financial and technological assistance to help
them resolve environmental problems
"
09/17/90 11:46
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-7-
4. Statements concerning the scientific understandings of
climate change.
Ministerial Declaration:
4. Climate has varied in the past. But the temperature
increase which is predicted to occur in the decades to come
due to the increasing accumulation of the greenhouse gases
in the atmosphere has not been encountered in the last
100,000 years at least; nor has the past rapidity of change
been as fast as that predicted. The greenhouse gases
result from a host of human activities such as the burning
of fossil fuel, deforestation, mining operations and waste
management.
8. Global warming poses environmental threat of a
magnitude the world has never known. Human activities
which have lead to the emissions of greenhouse gases into
the atmosphere have so far committed the Global Commons to
an irreversible warming 50 far....
It is therefore
important that emissions of greenhouse gases, especially
carbon dioxide and other long lived greenhouse gases, be
reduced as soon as possible. The long lived gases (CO2
and N20) would require at least 60% reductions in
emissions, and methane 15-20% reduction in emissions in
order to stabilize their concentration in atmosphere at
today's level.
USG position:
The declaration must accurately describe the scientific
context and uncertainties associated with potential climate
change. USG proposed language follows on page 8.
Houston Communique:
Does not address the scientific underpinnings.
09/17/90 11:47
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-6-
4.
Climate has varied significantly in the past; however, the
potential change in global mean temperatures over the next
century associated with human activities is predicted to be
larger and more rapid than those seen in the last 10,000
years. The magnitude, timing, rate and regional
distribution of these predicted climate changes are
uncertain because of limitations in our present scientific
understanding of climate processes and in our ability to
model the behavior of climate systems and components. The
human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases, while
significant, are much smaller than the exchange between the
atmosphere and natural systems. Stabilization of
atmospheric concentrations of long-lived gases at today's
levels, for example, would require either a 60 to 80%
decrease in anthropogenic emissions or a 2 to 3% increase
in absorption by natural systems.
8. The potentially serious consequences of human-induced
climate change, however, give sufficient reasons to begin
adopting response strategies that are fully justified for
other reasons, even in the face of significant
uncertainties. These strategies could include:
improved energy efficiency, use of lower greenhouse gas-
emitting sources; improved forest management; development
of comprehensive coastal management plans; use of practices
to recycle and reuse CFC gases and their substitutes; and
improved agricultural practices.
09/17/90 11:48
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5. Precautionary Principle
Ministerial Declaration:
17. In order to achieve sustainable development, we must
base ourselves on the precautionary principle.
Environmental measures must anticipate, prevent and attack
the causes of environmental degredation. Where there are
threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full
scientitic certainty should not be used as a reason for
postponing measures to prevent environmental degredation.
USG position:
This definition was agreed to in the Bergen Declaration.
We expect other countries to reopen this language, at which
time we will seek to have the definition include a reference to
the no-regrets strategy. USG proposed language follows on page
10.
Houston Summit Communique:
"We agree that in the face of threats of irreversible
environmental damage, lack of full scientific certainty is
no excuse to postpone actions which are justified in their
own right."
09/17/90 11:48
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-10-
In order to achieve sustainable development, we must base
ourselves on the precautionary principle. Environmental
measures must anticipate,. prevent and attack the causes
of environmental degradation. Where there are threats of
serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific
certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing
measures to prevent environmental degradation which are
justified in their own right.
The Washington Post
APR 24 1990
Meg Greenfield
The Word's Too Big
As I write this I am aware that by
the time it is printed, environmentalism
All sides in the environmental debate have
will be last week's news, a.K.a. history.
That is part of the problem: our nation-
al penchant for skipping from issue to
credibility problems.
issue, pausing only long enough to dub
with the perceptible degradation of
is under control are believable either.
each a crisis more momentous than any
other. But having the attention span of
their surroundings and the fact that
Far from it. The credibility problem on
a snail darter is only part of it. We are
there were urgent questions, primarily
this side of the debate has to do with
to do with health, standards of living
the unfortunate and humiliating fact
also prisoners of our overblown termi-
and the management of natural re-
that it sometimes seems, on this issue,
nology. The big tent word "environ-
sources that needed to be addressed.
as if we are living in the middle of a
ment" attempts to cover too much, and
by its very nature contributes to the
The trouble with herding all this (and
nonstop "60 Minutes" exposé. Again
muddle of our conversation.
more) into one tent was that the sane
and again and again do we discover that
This happens with lots of issues in
and the crazy, as well as the important
the supposed regulation is not being
our public life. The political efficiency
and the trivial all got mixed up togeth-
enforced, that the monitoring never
er. As an unfortunate result you could
took place, that the statistics concern-
experts start trying to nudge all the
related or seemingly related subjects
oppose something crazy and trivial and
ing the lethal hazard were merely shuf-
be denounced as an enemy of life on the
fled around somebody's office and filed,
into one general category. The "crime"
issue is an example, combining, as it
planet. Or, if you were a foe of the sane
or, that the folks who run the company
does, problems and phenomena that
and important projects that needed to
or the agency or city hall are lying. Be
have almost nothing to do with each
honest: between the repeatedly demon-
be undertaken you could do a lot to
other. I remember when this happened
strated incompetence and/or dissem-
discredit them by running them all
with the environment issue in the Nix-
bling of the authorities responsible for
together with the flakier stuff and de-
on administration. We got lots of ad-
these things, would you anymore take
nouncing the whole works. This is the
vance briefing that the Nixon White
at face. value a reassurance that this
equivalent of harping on "bra burners"
House was going to create this issue
leakage or that seepage or the other
any time a serious feminist issue comes
and make it a very big deal and, at least
stinking exhaust wasn't dangerous at
for a while, it did. Environmentalism
up.
all and was, in any event, being con-
became the chic subject of worry and of
Not surprisingly, therefore, a per-
stantly checked for risk?
vasive credibility problem dogs all sides
columnizing.
Finally, there is the fact that disputes
Before that the subject had consisted
in the environmental debate. We have
over scientific questions concerning the
mostly of its separate parts known
just seen the Earth Day special version
environment, like all such scientific-po-
primarily as "pollution" and "conserva-
of this problem with the two sides
litical disputes, only deepen the public
tion." It had been largely the preserve
debating whether there even is an
suspicion that someone, if not in fact
of separate political entities. There
environmental crisis of the magnitude
everyone, is lying. This is because it is
were the Republican dukes and duch-
portrayed in most of the public obser-
almost never understood that what the
esses trying to keep the neon signs out
vances-at least with the crime issue,
two sides are arguing about is rarely a
we aren't debating whether horrendous
of their line of vision at the country
set of facts, but rather a set of conclu-
crime exists. The environmentalists
place; there were the conspiracy theo-
sions based on facts. The arguers are
(how easily one falls into the deplored
rists of the left (nuclear fallout, pesti-
often merely trading hypotheses about
lingo) have suffered a loss of credibility
cides) and right (fluoridation) who be-
the meaning of data they actually agree
because 80 many of them have issued
lieved they were being secretly
on, saying how they think some uncer-
melodramatic, wildly overstated end-
poisoned (we now know some of them
of-the-world bulletins every hour on the
tainty or other will play out. The rest of
were); and there were the tiny minority
hour for the last 20 years. This hurts
us laymen immediately sign on to the
of health-food nuts, as we then called
most the people on their side who are
ecientific side whose theory we prefer.
them before we all became health-food
trying to get the country to buy the
I don't mean to say there is no better
nuts, and there were the well-born
realistic assessment of the dangers—
or worse, righter or wronger side in
human friends of animals.
and they are very great-that exist.
these matters-only that most of us
This was not exactly a promising
Not that those who dispute the envi-
don't have a clue about them, except to
potential constituency, but the people
ronmentalists' critique and try to reas-
believe the other side is cooking the
who invented the environmental rubric
sure us that each troublesome situation
data.
were on to something: the growing
irritation of large numbers of voters
CONTINUED
15
CONTINUED
The Washington Post
APR 24 1990
To my mind, the irony in all this is
that there is a huge political constitu-
ency out there concerned with daily-liv-
ing questions that could probably quali-
fy as environmental, but which
somehow exist outside the high-strung
realm of the environmental argument.
These are people tangling with traffic,
development, zoning and pollution is-
sues that profoundly affect their well-
being and which they care desperately
about, but which often seem to get lost
in the big-picture argument. Often, too,
they are victimized by the debate be-
tween absolutists, the stop-everything-
no-change crowd versus the mow-it-
all-down-and-pave-it boys, contests that
seem to rule out sensible planning and
intelligent compromise solutions.
Here you reach the final paradox. I
believe there is a deep and widespread
anxiety in the country about what could
properly be called environmental ques-
tions, but that we have created envi-
ronmentalism as an issue that somehow
doesn't reach them.
©1990, Newsweek, Inc.
Reprinted by permission; all rights reserved.
16
The Washington Times
JUN 1 4 1990
Italian business chief calls for
world environment standard
this approach.
ernment effort to develop interna-
By Karen Riley
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
"There can't be just an American
tional environmental rules has been
Clean Air Act. It is necessary to have
the so-called Montreal Protocol on
Business has traditionally com-
a World Clean Air Act," Mr. Gardini
Substances that Deplete the Ozone
plained that U.S. environmental reg-
said in an interview after an Amer-
Layer, which prescribed a 10-year
ulations hurt its bottom line and
ican Enterprise Institute conference
phaseout for chlorofluorocarbons
make it difficult for it to compete
on environmental policies and busi-
that degrade the ozone layer.
against foreign companies that face
ness earlier this week. The confer-
Mr. Gardini believes environmen-
less stringent rules.
ence was sponsored by the Ferruzzi
tal issues should be incorporated
But some multinational corpora-
Group.
into the General Agreement on Tar-
tions have begun to advocate a single
Environmental standards, which
iffs and Trade, the world's free trad-
global environmental standard that
typically vary from country to coun-
ing rules embraced by 97 nations.
would put all companies on a level
try and even from state to state, can
"It is anachronistic to discuss lib-
playing field.
influence production costs and
eralizing international trade at the
Italian businessman Raul Gar-
prices, the location of facilities and
GATT negotiations without taking
dini, chairman of the agribusiness
commercial policies, he said.
into account the new environmental
and chemical giant Ferruzzi Group,
"In any instance where the meth-
phenomenon," he said. For example,
is one of the leading proponents of
ods used to protect the environment
in Italy, a change in the structure for
influence prices, there is a risk of
pricing soybeans now before GATT
creating potential competitive dis-
would mean eliminating the most
tortions," said Mr. Ferruzzi.
important purifier from Italian
European and American environ-
farmlands and cause a 20 percent
mental standards are rife with dif-
increase in the consumption of po-
ferences on such issues as atmos-
tentially damaging nitrogenous fer-
pheric emissions, the use of water
tilizers.
resources, chemical substances per-
Ferruzzi, with $40 billion in sales
mitted for agricultural use, noise
and 300 plants worldwide, recently
levels, and on the taxes levied on cer-
developed a strategy for reducing its
tain chemical and energy products.
environmental impact over time.
The Ferruzzi Group is the leading
One element of its strategy is an
Italian investor in the United States
environmental balance sheet, which
with 54 plants, 13 warehouses and
will provide complete data about the
nine research and development cen-
company's use of energy and raw
ters that together take in $5.5 billion
materials as well as the quantity and
in net sales a year.
quality of its solid, liquid and gas-
The only government-to-gov-
eous emissions.
It will allow the company to mon-
itor reductions in energy use, deter-
mine the amount of pollutants cre-
ated per unit of production and unit
of sales and help set new goals for
additional reductions.
Mr. Ferruzzi urges all major com-
panies to adopt a similar accounting
system to avoid calamitous errors in
forming environmental policies.
For example, many European
governments impose penalties on
the use of plastics.
"But a proper system of energy
accounting would reveal that a plas-
tic bottle adds much less [carbon
dioxide, which contributes to global
warming] than a glass bottle of the
same size," he said.
14
The Washington Times
JUN 4 1990
Tanker
Capt. Greene said that C-130
cargo planes continue to bombard
the floating oil with chemical disper-
sants and that a new technology
spill heads
called "bioremediation," in which
oil-eating bacteria are dumped on
the oil, may be used.
for Texas
He estimated that only 12,000 to
40,000 gallons of the 3 million gal-
lons that have leaked remain in the
water.
beaches
"We're assuming the rest has in-
A3
cinerated or evaporated," Capt.
Greene said.
GALVESTON, Texas (Reuters) -
The nation's worst oil spill took
A growing oil spill in the Gulf of
place March 24, 1989, when the Ex-
Mexico crept toward Texas beaches
xon Valdez spilled 11 million gallons
yesterday as a burning Norwegian
of crude oil off the Alaskan coast.
tanker continued to leak its cargo.
A flotilla of 60 vessels, including
The Coast Guard said that 3 mil-
eight oil-skimming boats, is in the
lion gallons of crude oil have leaked
gulf attempting to contain the grow-
from the 853-foot Mega Borg since
ing spill, said Jim O'Brien, president
it exploded Saturday and that more
of Oops Inc.
will pour from its shattered cargo
Gretna, La.-based Oops was hired
hold.
by the private contractor - Smit
The ship still has 35 million gal-
American Salvage Inc. - in charge
lons of Angolan crude oil on board,
of putting out the fire aboard the
but Coast Guard Capt. Thomas
Mega Borg and cleaning up the spill.
Greene, federal on-site coordinator,
Mr. O'Brien said 31,000 gallons of
said he believes oil is leaking from
oil have picked up by skimming
only one of 16 cargo tanks.
boats, but winds that kicked up to 25
That tank, apparently punctured
mph and waves of 4 to 6 feet were
by one of the explosions that have
making the task difficult.
rocked the Mega Borg, had 6 million
"Certainly some of the oil is es-
gallons of oil before the accident, he
caping," he said.
said.
Three more skimmers, including
A growing slick of brown oil crept
two from the United Kingdom and
toward the state's beaches, pushed
one from Mexico, were expected to
on by rising winds and waves.
arrive later yesterday, Mr. O'Brien
"Tar balls could begin to reach
said.
land as early as Friday or Saturday,"
Robert Klawetter, an attorney rep-
Capt. Greene told reporters.
resenting ship owner K/S Mega
A slick of thick oil 12 miles long
Borg II, told reporters the company
and 5 miles wide extended from the
has $700 million in pollution insur-
Mega Borg, but a sheen of oil
ance to pay for the cleanup.
stretched 30 miles across the gulf.
He defended the company's
The Mega Borg is anchored 57
choice of Smit, a Dutch-owned firm,
miles southeast of this coastal city,
by calling the firm "the best in the
but wind and currents were ex-
world" at fighting these types of
pected to carry the oil to the west.
fires.
Landfall was expected to take place
The company has been criticized
somewhere along a 180-mile section
because of delays in getting equip-
between Freeport and Corpus Chris-
ment to Texas to fight the fire.
ti.
The Coast Guard said the fire
The area includes Aransas Na-
aboard the Mega Borg was under
tional Wildlife Refuge, winter home
control.
of the endangered whooping crane.
Local officials were readying equip-
ment to keep oil off the beaches and
out of estuaries.
13
EPA in the New
THE NEW YORK TIMES, SUNDAY, APRIL 22, 1990
E
27
To Skeptics on Global Warming
By Al Gore Jr.
PUBLIC & PRIVATE
Anna Quind!en
600
Soaring
thickness of the Earth's diameter, a
WASHINGTON
thin blue line around the crust of the
hen environ-
580
560
Levels of CO2
Earth. Unprecedented population
W
mental and
growth and new technologies for
financial ex-
burning fuels, clearing forests and
perts
from
540
manufacturing chemicals have given
around
the
520
humankind the ability to alter the
world
gath-
composition of the atmosphere.
ered in Washington this week for a
500
Everywhere on Earth, for example,
White House-sponsored conference
each lungful of air now contains 600
on global warming, they expected a
480
percent more chlorine atoms than it
serious discussion. Instead, they were
460
did 40 years ago - or 3 billion years
surprised and angered to hear Presi-
ago, for that matter. That chlorine is
dent Bush wholeheartedly endorse
440
responsible for burning a hole in the
delay and inaction.
420
stratospheric ozone layer. Similar in-
Global climate change is real. It is
creases in methane, nitrous oxide and
the single most serious manifestation
400
other polluting gases add to the seri-
of a larger problem: the collision
course between industrial civilization
380
ousness of global warming.
Q.: But how can we trust scientists
and the ecological system that sup-
360
on this issue when some of them say
ports life as we know it.
global climate change is real and
The purpose of Earth Day is to
340
alert people around the world to that
Administration, according to a leaked
300
2.5 Change in atmospheric temperature °C
some of them say it's not?
320
A.: Five hundred years ago, most
impending collision. And yet the Bush
scientists said the world was flat.
Most people believed them because
memo, is advising its policymakers
280
the Earth did indeed look flat. The
that "a better approach is to raise the
new "model" of a round Earth was
many uncertainties," and argue with
260
based on mathematical calculations
other skeptics that nothing should be
CO2
that they could neither touch nor un-
done until unresolved questions are
240
derstand. Similarly, Galileo was pun-
definitively answered.
220
ished for his then-novel view that the
What are the skeptics' questions?
Earth orbited the sun, instead of the
Here are several of the most promi-
200
0
other way around.
nent. None of them stands up under
°C
180
In the last 20 years, eminent scien-
scrutiny.
-2.5
tists continued to ridicule the theory
Q.: Aren't the dire predictions
about global warming based on un-
reliable computer models? How do
CO2: ppmv
-5.0
of continental drift. The theory of
global climate change used to be
-7.5
ridiculed, too. But in the last few
we know that there is any correlation
-10.0
years, the overwhelming majority of
between increased levels of carbon
scientists who have examined the evi-
dioxide in the atmosphere and
dence have agreed that the problem
changes in temperature?
160
120
80
40
0
is real.
A.: The most compelling evidence
Age; thousands of years
Present
Q.: Didn't NASA just report that
comes from careful studies of tiny air
bubbles in Antarctic ice. These show
The New York Times: Illustration by Janusz Kapusta
new measurements of the Earth's
what has actually happened to the
we eliminate the uncertainties?
temperature in the last 10 years
Earth's climate during the last
A.: That was the Administration's
showed no evidence of warming?
160,000 years. As illustrated by the ac-
excuse last year, when it asked a dis-
A.: That was the impression some
companying graph, carbon dioxide
tinguished United Nations-sponsored
people got. What NASA actually re-
group of scientists to answer that
ported was that "nothing could be
and temperature have gone up and
question. A draft of the scientists'
said" about a warming trend one way
down in lockstep for as far back as
long-awaited report, leaked to the
or another "due to the relatively
scientists can measure.
short satellite data record." Tem-
Through the last two ice ages and
press this week, concludes that we
peratures naturally fluctuate so
the period of great warming in be-
must act now. The scientists say
tween, levels of carbon dioxide have
there's still a chance that the problem
much from year to year that a single
won't be as bad as they fear, but
decade is not a long enough yardstick
fluctuated between 200 and 300 parts
for a long-term trend. The decade as
per million. Even the skeptics agree
there's an equal chance that it will be
a whole, according to several other
that concentrations of carbon dioxide
much worse than predicted.
studies, was the hottest since tem-
will be pushed to levels of 600 parts
Q.: Come on, isn't this really a little
far-fetched? After all, the Earth is a
peratures have been recorded. The
per million within the next 35 to 45
big place and probably has some kind
six hottest years on record occurred
years. It is irresponsible to assume
in the 1980's.
that after moving in tandem with car-
of natural "thermostat" to maintain
bon dioxide for 160,000 years, tem-
the present climate. Don't some
Q.: O.K., suppose temperatures do
peratures will not be affected by
scientists say that clouds or the
rise by a few degrees. So what?
A.: Even small changes in the aver-
those dramatic increases.
oceans or sunspots will offset any ef-
Q Do we know enough to act?
fect caused by human activity?
age global temperature can have dra-
A.: While the Earth is indeed vast
matic consequences. The last time
Shouldn't we study the problem until
in size, the atmosphere surrounding it
there was a change as big as the one
is less than one one-thousandth the
conto
Al Gore Jr., a Democrat, is a Senator
from Tennessee.
EPA in the News
USA TODAY
MONDAY, APRIL 23, 1990 1D
Stars' examples
get down to earth
By Valerie Helmbreck
we are," Bacon said.
USA TODAY
Olivia Newton-John is em-
barrassed she didn't use cloth
WASHINGTON - At first
diapers on daughter Chloe,
glance, it looked like Tom
now 4. The singer plans to ditch
Cruise had recycled himself.
her Mercedes for a car that
When the dimpled darling of
guzzles less gas.
the big screen showed up for a
She says a suit by Malibu
VIP Earth Day breakfast Sun-
neighbors, charging construc-
day, his entourage included
tion of her new house harms
two Cruise look-alikes used as
the beach, has been blown out
fan decoys. The duo watched
of proportion. "When you build
as he preached environmental
a house, you have to move dirt.
purity and "dolphin-safe tuna."
Other neighbors have done
Any doubt about Cruise's
much worse."
dominance in the weekend's
Richard Gere, holding
celeb pecking order was sealed
hands with model/girlfriend
by his Sheraton-Carlton room
Cindy Crawford, offered a laid-
assignment: Hotel spokeswom-
back lecture on changing the
an Kathleen Keenan said
inner self. Does he recycle?
Cruise and girlfriend Nicole
"No, I just keep everything. It's
Kidman got the suite recently
a problem, you should see my
used by Elizabeth Taylor.
office." Crawford buys "envi-
Not all Earth Day celebs
ronmentally safe" cleaning
were so anxiously attended, or
supplies.
overdressed. (Cruise chose a
Cruise's efforts include
double-breasted suit). Most
distributing a booklet on envi-
were in jeans; all talked of
ronmental activism on the set
their efforts to save the Earth:
of his Days of Thunder. Why
Kevin Bacon and KyΓa
do a film glorifying gas-greedy
Sedgwick brought cloth-diaper-
auto racing? "That's the wrong
clad son Travis, 11 months.
why!" he retorted. "You're
The couple shuns disposables,
only talking about 35 cars."
even on the road. "We try to
find a diaper service wherever
JAPANESE on LEHERS STABALIZATION-
CABINET
MEETING
arcame
Since the press has already started reporting. on (the "Action Program to Arrest
Global Warming"), I would like to inform you of the background of one of the key
issues of the Program, i.e. targets for CO2 emissions stabilization. I hope
that this will facilitate your eventual response to inquiries from the press and
other quarters. An exerpt of the relevant text is attached for reference.
First, it is our common understanding that actions taken by a single
country will not have a significant impact on greenhouse gas emissions. This
has been well recognized in the IPCC process. We have a common interest to
encourage other countries, especially those industrialized countries which have
not started developing their response strategies, to join us in making serious
efforts to meet the common challenge. Therefore, our target is made on the
basis of common efforts by other key industrialized countries. This view is
stated in the introduction of the text in question. This does not, of course,
mean that our Action Program is being qualified by "similar actions" and the
like.
Second, we view these stabilization targets as realistic guide posts for
maximum efforts encompassing both the public and private sectors. At the same
time, the specific circumstances of individual countries would yield differing
greenhouse gas emissions potentials reflecting their past energy conservation
performance, available energy options and other conditions. In the case of
Japan, even if technically and economically feasible options were fully pursued,
emission increases reflecting population growth could not be offset in the
coming decade. This is consistent with the earlier recommendations from the
Advisory Committee for Energy to our Minister of International Trade and
Industry. This is why we are taking per capita emissions as a yardstick. This
is reflected in the first part of the targets.
Third, despite the stringence of the afore-mentioned target, we do not
preclude the possibility of stabilizing total emissions at the 1990 level by the
year 2000 reflecting currently unforseen events, such as the introduction
earlier and on a larger scale than is predicted of innovative technologies such
as photovoltaics, hydrogen and other energy-related technologies and CO₂
fixation. The second part of the targets indicates such an eventuality.
Neither of these targets can be realised automatically. We expect very
serious and systematic efforts to be made in both the public and private
sectors. We also believe that efforts of other countries will greatly enhance
the effectiveness of our undertaking. The Second Climate Conference will
certainly provide us with a good opportunity in intensifying our common
endeavors.
recycled paper
Action Program to Arrest Global Warming (excerpt)
III. Targets Under the Action Program
The targets for the limitation of greenhouse gases emissions shall be set
as follows.
(1) The Government of Japan, based on the common efforts of the major
industrialized countries to limit CO2 emissions, establishes the following
targets for the stabilization of Japan's. CO2 emissions.
a. The emissions of CO2 should be stabilized on a per capita basis in the year
2000 and beyond at about the same level as in 1990, by steadily implementing a
wide range of measures under this Action Program, as they become feasible,
through the utmost efforts by both the government and private sectors.
b. Efforts should also be made, along with the measures above, to stabilize
the total amount of CO₂ emission in the year 2000 and beyond at about the same
level as in 1990, through progress in the development of innovative
technologies, etc., including those related to solar, hydrogen and other new
energies as well as fixation of CO, at a pace and scale greater than currently
predicted.
(2) The emission of methane gas should not exceed the present level. To the
extent possible, nitrous oxide and other greenhouse gases should not be
increased.
With respect to sinks of carbon dioxide, efforts should be made to work for
the conservation and development of forests, greenery in urban areas and so
forth in Japan and also to take steps to conserve and expand forests on a
global scale, among others.
recycled paper
CONFIDENTIAL
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
May 31, 1990
MEMORANDUM FOR GOVERNOR SUNUNU
FROM:
DAVID D. ALLAN Q. BATES BROMLEY AM
SUBJECT:
Global Climate Change Convention Negotiations
I. BACKGROUND
On June 8 Mostafa Tolba, the Executive Director of the United
Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), will host a bureau meeting
of UNEP and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in
Geneva. One of the main objectives of the meeting will be to
discuss when and how negotiations on a global climate change
convention might be conducted. The President has previously
indicated the U.S.'s willingness to host the first negotiating
sessions for such a convention, and his comments alluded to an
initial negotiating session late this year or early in 1991. It
is now generally assumed by other countries that U.S.-hosted
negotiations will begin at that time, although the U.S.
invitation has not been formally accepted. If the U.S. is to
influence the timing of negotiations, it is felt that our
representatives at the UNEP/WMO meeting should have the authority
to make a more definitive statement of the U.S. position on the
issue. On May 30 a strategy task force of the Global Change
Working Group met to discuss the U.S. position on the timing of
negotiations for a climate change convention and the structure of
the convention.
II. TIMING OF NEGOTIATIONS
The issue of timing is twofold, involving decisions both on the
beginning date for formal negotiations and the date of a
preparatory experts working group meeting (generally referred to
as a "prepcom"). Tolba strongly supports the idea of a prepcom,
probably in Geneva, which would serve as an organizational
session and would likely be attended by lower-level technical
personnel.
Several options were presented and discussed:
September prepcom and October negotiations
October prepcom and December negotiations
DECLASSIFIED
PER NSC WAIVER, August 6, 2010
By ByMM NARA, Date 2/22/2018
CONFIDENTIAL
NSC #2017-03
CONFIDENTIAL
October prepcom and February 1991 negotiations
February 1991 prepcom and April 1991 negotiations
It was the consensus of the Global Chnage task force that the
third option --negotiations beginning in February 1991, perhaps
during the first week of that month, preceded by an October
prepcom -- is the preferred course.
Advantages of Option
An October prepcom would provide grounds for deflecting
anticipated efforts in the United Nations General
Assembly and the Second World Climate Conference (in
early November) to influence the negotiation process.
It also provides sufficient time to prepare and appears
to be widely supported by other countries.
February 1991 negotiations provide the U.S. with more
lead time for site selection and other organizational
and financial matters and avoid the seasonal
difficulties posed by December negotiations.
Delaying until later in 1991 opens the U.S. to
accusations of "stalling" and could allow the U.N.
General Assembly and the Second World Climate
Conference to make specific recommendations for
negotiations or implement a separate formal process
under their control.
Disadvantages of Option
Earlier negotiations in October or December could give
greater assurance of deflecting any possible direction
from the U.N. General Assembly or the Second World
Climate Conference.
Some drafts of the resolutions to be taken up at the
June 8 UNEP/WMO meeting present the option of December
negotiations hosted by the U.S., so expectations may
already have been created.
There are arguments that placing the negotiations
within the U.N. General Assembly, which would likely
result in a very protracted process, has advantages,
and that allowing this to occur through inaction should
be the U.S. position.
Once a position is determined, a second question of the method by
which it will be announced must be considered. The announcement
could come simply within the context of the June 8 meeting.
Alternatively, a Presidential announcement, perhaps concurrently
with an announcement in Geneva, could heighten the profile of the
decision.
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
III. STRUCTURE OF CONVENTION
The Global Change task force also discussed the structure of the
convention -- the type of convention and protocols, if any -- but
not the details of the negotiating process or the elements or
ultimate content of a convention. The President spelled out the
current U.S. position on this issue in his closing address to the
White House Conference on Science and Economics Research Related
to Global Change when he stated "we would encourage a framework
convention as a part of a comprehensive approach to address the
system, sources and sinks as a whole if a decision is made that
environmental action is needed to reduce net emissions."
The issue of the structure of the convention may be discussed at
the June 8 UNEP/WMO meeting. It has previously been dealt with
in the Response Strategies Working Group (RSWG) of the IPCC
(which will be meeting in Geneva beginning on June 5). RSWG has
developed a paper, which will be addressed next week, that lays
out the issues associated with the structure of a framework
convention and presents a number of options. The paper carefully
protects the U.S. position supporting a comprehensive approach
but does not make any recommendations or preclude any future
options. Because the U.S. will in the future be compelled to
develop a position on the issue and a negotiating strategy, it is
appropriate to begin to focus on it now.
There is general agreement that any convention will contain
elements dealing with:
-- general principles of cooperation;
--
research and monitoring obligations, with support for
the latter being strongly pushed to show our
seriousness about the obligations being undertaken;
--
obligations for exchanges of information; and
-- establishment of appropriate institutions.
Although it does not represent a consensus position, there is
support for advocating a program that would allow trading of
emissions, at least on a voluntary basis, as a basic principle of
a convention.
The Global Change task force considered five options:
O
(1) A "bare bones" framework convention that is
without prejudice as to how protocols will be
addressed.
(2) A framework convention that provides that any
protocol (but which does not commit to the need for
protocols) should address the sources and sinks of
greenhouse gases comprehensively and commits the
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
parties through the IPCC to study means to develop such
a protocol.
(3) A framework convention that directs the parties to
develop a comprehensive protocol; if agreement on a
comprehensive protocol could not be reached, the effect
would be to cause the framework convention to fail.
(4) A framework convention that either provides for a
possible comprehensive protocol after further study or
requires such a protocol, but with the first element of
such a protocol being forestry. It was agreed that a
separate forestry protocol standing alone could also be
considered an option.
O
(5) A comprehensive convention.
Option 1 -- a framework convention that is without prejudice as
to how protocols will be addressed -- is considered the only U.S.
position articulated to date. There was consensus that it is
time to move beyond that position, however. The task force
agreed that Option 2 -- which makes clear the U.S. commitment to
a comprehensive greenhouse gas index as the basis for a framework
convention and any associated protocol, without obligating the
parties to pursue it -- is now appropriate:
This position should be perceived as a step forward for
the U.S.
Its emphasis on a comprehensive approach, assuming
further study shows such action is appropriate and is
consistent with statements of the President at the
White House Conference on Science and Economics
Research Related to Global Change, is the direction in
which the U.S. should continue to push.
It is consistent with the U.S. position that
negotiations for targets and timetables is premature.
U.S. unwillingness to commit to the need for some
protocol may weaken our ability to push for a
comprehensive protocol, however.
Option 5 was eliminated as premature. It was agreed that Options
3 and 4 should be considered further after the June 8 UNEP/WMO
meeting and (assuming negotiations on the schedule outlined above
go forward) the October prepcom meeting. It was noted that other
countries are likely to push for Option 3 requiring a
comprehensive protocol or at least for commitments to some
protocol. It was also noted that Option 4, incorporating
negotiations on forestry as the first element of a comprehensive
protocol or an independent forestry protocol, could put the U.S.
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
on a "slippery slope" leading quickly to specific discussions of
reductions in carbon dioxide emissions that could go beyond
forestry.
Variations of the position presented above would be to allow U.S.
representatives to announce Option 2 as our position, but
authorize them to move further to Option 3 or Option 4 depending
on the tone of the discussions and the extent of pressure on the
U.S. A second alternative would be not to go beyond the current
U.S. position (Option 1), but wait on later meetings to obtain
better intelligence on other countries' positions.
CONFIDENTIAL
The Washington Post
JUN 13 1990
JACK ANDERSON and DALE VAN ATTA
The Cloudy Politics of Clearing the Air
C15
R
ep. John D. Dingell (D-Mich.) is one of the pit
by focusing on Dukakis's failure to clean up Boston
bulls of Congress, and he likes nothing better
Harbor. The last thing the Democrats needed was
than chewing on the leg of William Reilly.
one of their own standing in the way of cleaner air.
Reilly, the head of the Environmental Protection
It was Dingell who caved in, but now Reilly is
Agency, is tailor-made to whet Dingell's
watching his ankles. The chilly relationship between
appetite-a career environmentalist, driven to
the two men turned to ice in the clean air debate,
clean up the air. Dingell is a career politician,
sources told our associates Scott Sleek and Tim
driven to protect his constituents, the auto makers
Warner. Dingell even confronted Reilly at a
and auto workers in Detroit.
Washington party and gave him a tongue-lashing. In a
Ever since George Bush declared himself to be
speech to the American Public Power Association in
the "environmental president," Dingell has had his
January, Dingell implied that Reilly was a dilettante
hands full. It isn't that Bush has turned out to be a
who didn't care if workers in Detroit lost their jobs.
defender of the environment. It's simply that Bush
During the clean air hearings, Dingell made Reilly
stumbled upon an EPA director who is.
pay for every concession he got. The congressman
For years, Dingell has harped on the EPA for its
drilled Reilly like a prosecutor badgering the star
lax protection of nearly every element of the
defense witness. After Dingell had agreed to sponsor
environment, except the air. Dingell's favorite
the bill, he demanded minute details about how the
target has been EPA's failure to clean up hazardous
new emissions standards would affect car makers, he
waste. But when it comes to air pollution, the
complained about the cost of cleaner fuels, and he
congressman sings a different tune.
carped about the increased power Reilly would have.
In past years, Dingell has fought efforts to put
The exchange was so cold Waxman had to break
more pollution controls on cars because it would
the ice: "Mr. Reilly, I think you're fortunate Mr.
cost the car makers big money. But when changes
Dingell is the lead sponsor of your legislation.
to the Clean Air Act were introduced in Congress,
Otherwise, I think he would be critical of it."
Dingell looked up from chewing on Reilly's leg and
Reilly will continue to pay the price of victory.
saw that public sentiment was not going his way. It
Dingell would like to blame Reilly for the EPA's
was time to compromise.
failure to issue new guidelines for the industrial and
Dingell met halfway with the leading pollution
military cleanup of hazardous waste dumps. But as
fighter in the House, Rep. Henry A. Waxman
we reported earlier, the Office and Management
(D-Calif.). They worked out a compromise and passed
and Budget has derailed those guidelines.
tough revisions to the clean air laws last month.
Rather than pick on Budget Director Richard G.
Dingell's fellow Democrats were breathing hot
Darman, Dingell has nagged Reilly about the rules.
on his neck. They remembered how Bush stole the
An administration source summed up the
"environmentalist" label from Michael S. Dukakis
nagging: "This is just clean air politics."
19
The Washington Post
JUN 1 3 1990
DAVID WARSH B3
Game Theory Suggests Quick Action on
Greenhouse Effect Is Remote
G
eorge Bush routinely gets beaten up by
After a laborious intellectual retooling, there
environmentalists because they think he should
followed a trickle, then an outpouring of work on
be leading the charge to do something about the
human behavior, energy and climate. There was still
greenhouse effect. In fact, among the economists who
the garment bag on the shoulder at the airport on
study the problem, the opposition to quick action runs
Thursday evenings, but now Schelling's clients
fairly deep-aside from uncertainty over the
included Congress, the National Academy of Science
climatological models.
and various foundations. The issues were fossil fuels,
Typical is Thomas C. Schelling, a thinker who is
racial discrimination, sexual politics, drug addiction,
senior enough to be serving as president of the
the cigarette habit, medical ethics, climate change,
American Economic Association and who is leaving
even wearing mittens in your sleep to keep from
Harvard for the University of Maryland this week after
scratching poison ivy. ("Treating your sometime self
a 30-year span. A look at the 69-year-old Schelling's
as though it were somebody else is a ubiquitous and
career illuminates a good bit of the origins of
familiar technique of self-management.")
present-day thinking about the greenhouse effect.
At the heart of it all was game theory. Today, of
In the 1960s, no academic figure exemplified the
course, the systematic taking account of other people's
romance of Harvard in Washington better than
actions in your theorizing is all the rage in economics.
Schelling. It was said that Robert McNamara was
In fact, probably nothing is being talked about more
influenced by his thinking, more than by any other.
frequently among teachers of economics than David
The son of a naval officer and veteran of a long
Kreps's new graduate microeconomics textbook, which
Marshall Plan stint after World War II, Schelling wrote
incorporates game theory for the first time in the
a book on algebraic economics in his spare time during
deep-down architecture of the field. But when
the late 1940s and turned it in for a Harvard Ph.D.
Schelling began writing about strategy in the 1950s, it
Then, after a stint at the Rand Corp., he took up
was news to most economists-so much so that his
thinking about nuclear war, earning a reputation as a
"theory of interdependent decision" was all but
tough-minded peacenik in the strenuous top-secret
ignored by them.
campaign against the Air Force plan to establish a
In Schelling's hands, the most mundane choices are
testing treaty.
illuminated for their strategic considerations.
Schelling published "The Strategy of Conflict" in
Christmas savings clubs are seen as a way of binding
1959 (sample chapter: "Bargaining, communication
oneself to save even in the face of temptation.
and limited war") But it was in John Kennedy's
Protective hockey helmets become an intricate
Camelot that Schelling really burst upon the
exercise in collective choice, for nobody wears them
Washington scene, commuting for his day-a-week
voluntarily, while everybody benefits if they are
consulting job on Friday. During Lyndon Johnson's
mandated. It turns out to be easy to decide where to
years the economist-cum-strategist was everywhere,
meet in New York City without making plans if you just
advising the best and the brightest in the Defense
think for a while about what places the other guy
Department and the National Security Council.
knows. (In another era, it would have been the
But in the wake of the U.S. decision to spread the
Biltmore clock, of course.)
Vietnam War to Cambodia in April 1970, Schelling led
As Richard Zeckhauser says, "Those who read
a delegation of 12 Harvard professors to Washington
Schelling and participate in his games learn a general
to call on old friend Henry Kissinger, who was then
principle: In any interactive situation, it is vitally
national security adviser.
important to look at matters from the side of the other
"We took turns speaking," Schelling recalls. "We
party
The other-people's-shoes approach is often
told him that we had thought of the executive branch
recommended by softhearted promoters of
as our friend, of Congress as our enemy. From now on
compromise. The core principle, however, is that by
we would reverse it. Henry went gray in the face, he
understanding the other party's perspective, you will
slumped in his chair. I thought at the time that he
improve your comprehension of the situation
suffered serious depression. But there was no sign that
dramatically and will come out better yourself. This is
it ever had any effect." For Schelling, the vow to
an important lesson for hard hearts as well."
perform no more work for the executive branch was an
especially momentous pledge. It cost him both his
audience and his information.
CONTINUED
20
APR 20 1990
THE CHRISTIAN CIENCE MONITOR
As Global-Warming Meeting Ends,
US, Heels Planted, Is Pulled Along
By Peter Grier
Ireland, France, and Italy
"Major decisions must be
Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor
were to some degree critical of
taken this year. At these meetings
WASHINGTON
what they felt was US foot-drag-
the world is expecting leadership
P.7
ging. Japan and the Soviet
from the USA," said minister
HIS week's White House
Union, among others, were more
Alders of the Netherlands.
T
conference on global cli-
supportive of the US.
It is not the cost that is stop-
mate change only served
The purpose of the confer-
ping the US, charged dissident
to emphasize the division be-
ence, according to US officials,
was to inject economic thinking
conferees, but the lack of political
tween the United States and
many other industrialized nations
into the international environ-
will. If that is true, the Dutch pro-
on the global warming problem.
mental debate. They say this
gram for freezing carbon dioxide
From President Bush on
means more than just figuring
emissions shows why. It contains
down, US speakers stood in front
what pollution controls might
many items that would be con-
cost. D. Allan Bromley, science
troversial if any president tried to
of a backdrop depicting the earth
from space and talked about cau-
adviser to the president, used the
implement them in the US:
example of a recent study of the
Stabilization of car use by in-
tion, and what we do not know.
US economy which projected that
creased gas taxes and, possibly, a
Before committing to expensive
cleanup programs we should
by the year 2050 it would be pro-
system of road tolls that varies ac-
"sort out the science on this com-
ducing anywhere from 1.5 to 12
cording to time of day and day of
times as much carbon dioxide as
week. Tax breaks for workers
plex issue," Mr. Bush said.
today. This is hardly the refined
who commute by car will be cut.
Delegates from other nations
research needed to design and
A doubling of investment in
agreed that there is still much un-
certainty about the scope and
implement a carbon dioxide con-
public transport systems. Zoning
pace of global warming. But in
trol strategy, Dr. Bromley said.
changes will encourage develop-
closed working groups they told
The US tried to highlight ac-
ment near public transport facili-
ties.
the US the stakes are so high that
tions it is taking to curb other pol-
sweeping pollution reductions
lutants besides carbon dioxide.
Widespread recyling pro-
need to be taken, just in case.
Bromley and others talked up the
grams, including "collection of
In particular, a number of del-
US commitment to banning chlo-
biogas from waste and manure
rofluorocarbons (CFCs), as well as
and the gasification of wood and
egates at the conference said their
nonusable paper," says a Dutch
countries were setting deadlines
a new long-range energy conser-
for freezing emissions of carbon
vation strategy under develop-
environment ministry report.
dioxide, a gas implicated in the
ment at the Department of En-
In closing the conference,
President Bush said his commit-
greenhouse effect. "We do not
ergy.
ment to research was not a cover
have the right to carry out experi-
But most of the other nations
ments on a planetary scale," said
wanted to talk about carbon
for doing nothing. The adminis-
tration has "never considered re-
Environment Minister Hans
dioxide just the same. At an envi-
search a substitute for action," he
Alders of the Netherlands.
ronmental conference in the
Netherlands last November the
said. Delegates appeared to be
The Dutch were perhaps the
most outspoken global-warming
US agreed to freeze its carbon
warmed by this assertion.
"We've found common
insurgents, but far from the only
dioxide emissions at some point.
ones. At the 18-nation confer-
Now activist nations are pushing
ground - that research and action
for a timetable - the Dutch, for in-
are inseparable," said Padraig
ence, the West German environ-
ment minister announced his
stance, say they will freeze carbon
Flynn, Irish environment min-
ister.
country would reduce emissions
dioxide emissions by 1995.
of carbon dioxide 25 percent by
Since this week's conference
the year 2005. The Norwegian
was the White House's party,
Environment Minister Kristin
there was little public discussion
Hille Valla said "doubt should not
of such a timetable. But some na-
be used as a reason for post-
tions served notice it would be on
poning measures to prevent envi-
their agenda at July's economic
ronmental degradation."
summit in Houston and the
second World Climate Confer-
ence, scheduled for October in
Geneva.
19
APR 19 1990
Chicago Tribune
U.S. rebuffed at talks
on global warming
Foreign delegates reject conclusions
By Terry Atlas
P.11
shore up his claim to be an en-
But the White House failed in its
Chicago Tribune
vironmentalist president.
attempt to produce an outcome
WASHINGTON-In an embar-
In çoncluding remarks to the
that administation officials could
rassing setback for the White
conference Wednesday, Bush at-
interpret as an international en-
House,. foreign delegates to the
tempted to undo some of the dam-
dorsement of a go-slow approach
U.S.-sponsored conference on glob-
age, abruptly shifting ground to en-
to the climate danger.
al warming Wednesday strongly re-
dorse international action against
On the contrary, delegates said,
jected a document drafted by the
global warming.
an important consensus was
administration that did not stress
Just 24 hours earlier he had
reached during informal, closed-
an urgent need for action to count-
stressed before the same group that
door discussions favoring interna-
er the climate threat.
more research was needed to re-
tional goals and timetables to re-
U.S. officials quickly withdrew
solve scientific uncertainties before
duce emissions of carbon dioxide
the document, saying it was mis-
making commitments to costly
and other gases which are pro-
takenly presented to the delegates.
programs to counter what many
duced by burning fossil fuels such
However, many foreign delegates
consider the biggest environmental
as gasoline and coal.
were outraged at what they con-
threat to mankind.
The administration has been di-
sidered a clumsy American effort
"There is one area where we will
vided over the seriousness of global
to steamroller them into endorsing
allow for no uncertainty, and that
warming, with Reilly favoring spe-
the disputed conclusions sought by
is our commitment to action to
cific goals to reduce carbon dioxide
the White House.
sound analyses and to sound poli-
and White House chief of staff
The document, a proposed char-
cies," he said, using the word "ac-
John Sununu doubtful about the
ter for research cooperation, said
tion" half a dozen times in a 20-
danger of climate change.
in part, "Gaps in scientific and
minute speech.
In planning the conference,
economic understanding substan-
The administration has called for
which fulfills a Bush campaign
tially limit the abilities of nations
a complete phaseout of
promise, Sununu tried to structure
to gauge" the consequences of pol-
chlorofluorocarbons, a "greenhouse
the session in a way to produce an
icies designed to counter global
gas" that is eroding the Earth's
outcome to his liking, a White
warming.
protective ozone layer.
House agenda that many visiting
"We've disavowed it. It has no
The administration also has sup-
ministers and other high-level de-
status," said William Reilly, head
ported a United Nations-sponsored
legates complained from the start
of the Environmental Protection
program leading to negotiations
was heavy-handed and biased. For
Agency and one of the conference
toward a treaty to address global
instance, the two public sessions
delegates.
warming.
were monopolized by administra-
It was just one of many U.S.
"We have never considered re-
tion officials who, not unexpected-
missteps at the two-day conference,
search a substitute for action,"
ly, all echoed the president's views.
which foreign delegates and en-
Bush said.
High-level delegates publicly
vironmentalists viewed as a missed
Administration officials said the
complained that the White House
opportunity for President Bush to
president was aware of the criti-
seemed to be stressing the scientific
cism of his earlier remarks, in
uncertainties as an excuse to post-
which he seemed to ignore the
pone action.
growing scientific consensus that
the buildup of carbon dioxide and
other greenhouse gases may cause
a potentially catastrophic warming
of the Earth.
"His commitment is a lot more
informed as a result of what has
happened," said Reilly.
But White House officials denied
that Bush was directly responding
to the criticism of his remarks
Tuesday.
The conference succeeded in its
narrowest mission-to bring to-
20
gether experts and policymakers in
the areas of science, economics and
the environment to discuss global
warming.
The New York Times
APR 21 1990
Some White House Effect P22
"Not beneficial to discuss whether there is or is
will be clear. We will talk about global warming."
not
warming.
In the eyes of the public we will
Such were candidate Bush's stirring promises.
lose this debate." So warned the White House in a
But President Bush disinvited the Chinese - a
briefing paper for Cabinet officials attending the in-
major producer of greenhouse gases - and manip-
ternational conference on the greenhouse effect
ulated the agenda to sidestep issues the White
that President Bush convened this week.
House wanted to avoid, declining even to utter the
Mr. Bush, for one, took the warning to heart. He
phrase "global warming."
didn't even mention the words "greenhouse effect"
That's a shameful surrender of substance to
or "global warming." His foreign guests, under the
image, especially at a time when scientists in a
impression they had been invited to discuss these
major but so far unpublished United Nations study
subjects, were disappointed at the White House's
conclude that a rise of 3 to 8 degrees Fahrenheit can
decision to focus on uncertainties and not action to
be expected within the next 60 years. What makes
avert the feared greenhouse warming.
the surrender even stranger is that the White
"Don't get into an advocacy position of the
House's policy is not indefensible. Its skepticism of
merits of various policy proposals," advised the
computer models of the climate, for example, is jus-
briefing paper. "Don't use specific numbers i.e., de-
tified. So far the computers only show what might
grees, dollars, rates, etc.
be, not what will be.
Specific numbers, of course, are the coin of seri-
The Administration's stated policy is to pursue
ous discussion. So why hold a conference at all if
those actions against greenhouse warming that are
serious discussion is to be avoided? Because in a
worthwhile on their own merits. That policy, too,
campaign speech on Aug. 31, 1988, Mr. Bush prom-
could be defended, even though the Administra-
ised to hold one. "Those who think we are powerless
tion's present list of actions is too short and omits
to do anything about the 'greenhouse effect' are for-
the urgent remedy of an increased gasoline tax.
getting about the 'White House effect,' he said. "In
Had Mr. Bush's advisers got their act together,
my first year in office, I will convene a global con-
they would not have been trapped in the absurdity
ference on the environment at the White House. It
of holding a conference whose true purpose was to
will include the Soviets, the Chinese The agenda
avoid debate.
23
APR 22 1990
Chicago Tribune
Earth Day to Earth Day, and beyond
P.2
By now you may have heard or read more than you
of jobs. Yet despite the pile of environmental regula-
ever wanted to about Earth Day 1990, and the day
tions approved in the past 20 years and their high
has only just begun. Its coming has been embraced all
cost-perhaps $1 trillion-this has not happened. Jobs
over the nation, from newsrooms to classrooms to
increased 50 percent and manufacturing productivity
boardrooms, and before it ends an estimated 200 mil-
45 percent, and whole new industries have been cre-
lion people in 140 countries will have joined in some
ated in pollution control and recycling.
celebration, presentation, demonstration or protesta-
Still, there must be reason. As much as some en-
tion on behalf of this scuffed, wheezing planet.
vironmentalists would prefer zero pollution tolerance,
That is one measure of a road greatly traveled since
President Bush is correct: Environmental policies that
Earth Day 1970, the event more or less acknowledged
ignore the economic factor are destined to fail.
as having sounded the gong for a new environmental
Industry, though not always willing, is coming to
awareness in the United States. Now, 20 years later,
understand that it has to be a participant in the quest
this anniversary Earth Day is being cast as the propel-
for a cleaner, safer planet. This is partly out of resig-
lant for what will be the decade of the environment,
nation to inevitable regulation, partly out of genuine
and there is good reason to believe that thesis.
corporate conscience, and partly out of understanding
that it is good business. It is not by coincidence that
An extraordinary convergence of forces, some enthu-
the advent of Earth Day brought announcement of an
siastically and some reluctantly, now crowd under the
electric car, cleaner gasolines, a recyclable plastic
environmental umbrella. The zealots always have been
ketchup bottle and dolphin-safe tuna. Even if not al-
there and always will be, and they have their place-at
ways acts of altruism, their results count just as much.
the risk sometimes of alienating the support they
Government frequently is criticized for moving too
crave. The mainstream environmentalists carry on
slowly on environmental matters, and there is truth in
their yeoman work, nudging the system toward their
that. Yet the past two decades brought new standards
ends. And in the system itself-in business, politics
for clean air and water, pesticides, hazardous wastes,
and government-have come the rumblings that have
drinking water, endangered species, wild and scenic
effected, and must effect, the greatest changes.
rivers and the creation of the Environmental Protec-
More than any factor, this gathering sentiment has
tion Agency. Many of the goals have not been reached
been fueled by the will of the American people, who
and Congress has been too willing to grant extensions,
have shown in poll after poll that they want a cleaner,
but still there has been substantial progress.
healthier environment and are willing to pay for it. In
one of the most recent soundings, commissioned by
The challenges ahead are daunting. More than 100
the New York Times and CBS News, 84 percent of
cities still violate federal clean air standards; millions
the respondents said pollution is a serious problem
of tons of toxic pollutants cloud the air; too many
and getting worse. Seventy-four percent said protecting
rivers and beachfronts still fail the fishable/swimmable
the environment is important enough to justify any
test; wetlands are disappearing at an alarming rate; the
standards at any cost; 71 percent would approve more
number of endangered species has skyrocketed. There
government spending and higher taxes to that end; 56
are cosmic problems not contemplated 20 years ago,
percent would tolerate the loss of local jobs.
which no single nation can solve: the threat of acid
Politicians read very well, and this signal accounts
rain, the depletion of the Earth's ozone layer, trepida-
for the astonishing transmutation of so many of them
tion over the effects of possible global warming.
into environmentalists, knocking each other down in
And right at home, there is the problem of what to
the rush for Earth Day podiums. Some may not yet
do with all our garbage, perceptively described by EPA
realize that their feet will be held to the fire for their
administrator William Reilly as the nation's No. 1
oratory, when the big environmental issues are called.
environmental problem. On that one, the American
But many, with or without conviction, will answer the
public has had a lapse of conscience. Despite a grow-
call because it is good politics, and this will significant-
ing fondness for recycling, people are producing more
ly influence the swing of the pendulum in the 1990s.
garbage than ever while becoming increasingly fierce in
If the past 20 years are any guide, it will be a safe
their opposition to landfills, incinerators and now even
position, for the principal lesson since Earth Day 1970
composting centers anywhere in their vicinity.
is that it is possible to have a healthier environment
There is an object lesson in that, and a profound
and a healthy economy. Each time a major environ-
one as well. If Earth Day is a catalyst for anything, it
mental initiative is proposed-as is the case now with
ought to be to a look inward, to the choices we make,
the Clean Air Act before Congress-there are dire
the lifestyles we favor and, yes, literally to the trees we
warnings from industry that it will bring catastrophe in
plant. Each of us, one by one, fills this planet. Each of
the shuttering of businesses and the loss of thousands
us, one by one, can work to make it a better place.
24
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
APR
6
1990
Bid to Slow Global Warming Could Cost
U.S. $200 Billion a Year, Bush Aide Says
By BOB DAVIS
year. He called calculations of the eco-
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
nomic effect of curbing greenhouse gases
The earth usually changes temperature
WASHINGTON-The chairman of the
the "significant missing dimension" in in-
exceptionally slowly. At the peak of the ice
president's Council of Economic Advisers
ternational talks so far on the subject.
age 15,000 years ago, the earth was on av-
said that substantially reducing gases that
erage only four degrees Celsius colder than
some scientists believe will cause the
Climate scientists say the world may be
it is today. What makes global warming so
Earth to warm catastrophically could cost
heating because of the rapid increase in
menacing, he said, is that it would vastly
the U.S. as much as $200 billion a year and
the atmosphere of carbon dioxide and
accelerate the pace of environmental
batter economies world-wide.
other gases produced by human develop-
change.
"The stakes are very high economi-
ment. These gases trap heat in the atmos-
Mr. Boskin said he and his staff hadn't
cally," said Michael Boskin, CEA chair-
phere and block it from escaping into
done original research on the costs of
man. "You'd likely wind up seeing a sharp
space. During the past century, the earth
has warmed about 0.5 degree Celsius, ac-
greenhouse warming, but had reviewed a
reduction of economic growth" around the
"substantial number" of U.S. computer
globe if the so-called greenhouse gases are
cording to White House Science Adviser Al-
to be reduced by 20% during the next 15
lan Bromley, but it isn't clear how much of
models. Cutting emissions 20% by the year
2005, as has been suggested by countries in
that rise is due to human activity.
years.
Western Europe, would cost the U.S. "tril-
Mr. Boskin's comments reflect an at-
Mr. Boskin, one of the three co-chair-
lions of dollars-$100 billion to $200 billion
tempt by the Bush administration to re-
men of the global-change conference,
a year would be in the ballpark," he esti-
focus the debate over possible global
played down the significance of the poten-
mated.
warming from the effects on the environ-
tial heating. A rise of a few degrees Cel-
"It would mean a period of substan-
ment to the potential costs of any clean-up.
sius would be similar to the change from
tially higher unemployment and lower eco-
The president has invited 17 nations to a
moving from Boston to Washington, and
nomic growth;" he said, because the U.S.
two-day conference on global warming that
might even benefit U.S. agriculture, he
would have to switch to "much more ex-
begins here tomorrow; the U.S. and Japan
said.
pensive forms of energy."
are expected during the meetings to em-
He also argued that people could use
Even stabilizing carbon dioxide emis-
phasize the potentially staggering costs of
technology to adjust to the warmer
sions would deal a big blow to the econ-
reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
weather. "For example, air conditioning
omy, Mr. Boskin predicted. The last time
Environmentalists contend that the ad-
has made previously less-hospitable climes
U.S. emissions of the gas didn't grow was
ministration's tactic will slow any effort to
much more hospitable," he said.
after the Arab oil embargo quadrupled the
combat global warming. "What they're do-
David Rind, a climate specialist at the
cost of oil and the economy plummeted.
ing is backing away from commitments al-
National Aeronautics and Space Adminis-
ready made," said Rafe Pomerance, a se-
tration's Goddard Institute for Space Stud-
William Nordhaus, a Yale University
nior associate at the World Resources In-
ies, said that computer models predict a
economist who served on the CEA under
stitute, a Washington environmental re-
rise of between about two degrees and six
President Carter, estimated the cost of sta-
search organization. "They have abso-
degrees Celsius if the amount of carbon di-
bilizing greenhouse gas emissions overall
lutely no plans to do anything about global
oxide in the atmosphere doubles, as ex-
during the next 40 years at about $50 bil-
pected, in the next century. Even a rise
lion a year for the U.S. and $150 billion an-
warming."
Bush administration officials deny that.
of two degrees would increase droughts in
nually for the rest of the world. During the
William Reilly, chief of the Environmental
Florida and the southern-most parts of the
past year, Mr. Nordhaus conducted re-
Protection Agency, said he expects the
U.S., Central America and large parts of
search into the costs of trying to limit
U.S. to begin preliminary negotiations on a
Africa and South America. A four-degree
global warming.
global warming compact by the end of the
rise would be a "disaster," leading to
Slowing the increase of greenhouse
droughts in most of the U.S., he said.
gases so they grow at a rate 20% less than
predicted would cost little, he said, and
might "actually have benefits" economi-
cally.
28
The Washington Times
APR 1 6 1990
Counter gas with
clean air initiative
F2
I thought it was ironic that just as
the Senate passed the clean air bill,
Saddam Hussein of Iraq announced
that he had both the missiles and
binary capability to rain nerve gas
down on his enemies from afar.
Perhaps the Strategic Defense
Initiative is our best investment in
clean air.
BURMAN SKRABLE
Fairfax, Va.
27
The Washington Post
APR 19 1990
CONTINUED
'DEBATES TO AVOID
APRIL 17, POINTS
taking
WARMING, OR HOW MUCH OR HOW
WHETHER THERE IS OR IS NOT
NOT BENEFICIAL TO DISCUSS
is
DEBATE. A BETTER APPROACH
THE PUBLIC WE WILL LOSE THIS
LITTLE WARMING. IN THE EYES OF
THE The in The complement world Conference strides community is science IPCC. towards working making
UNDERSTOOD ON THIS ISSUE.
THAT NEED TO BE BETTER
TO RAISE THE MANY UNCERTAINTIES IS
VARIOUS POLICY PROPOSALS.
POSITION OF THE MERITS - OF
DON'T GET INTO AN ADVOCACY
remain many well and of
THIS CONFERENCE AS AN ATTEMPT
DON'T LET REPORTERS POSITION
THIS ISSUE.
TO DELAY SERIOUS DECISIONS ON
potential economical responses changes work is
THIS CONFERENCE IS ACCELERATING
understood--more needed.
AND UNDERSTANDING OF THESE
THE INTERNATIONAL DISCUSSION
economics and to policy deal
RATES ETC.
NUMBERS IE., DEGREES, DOLLARS,
ISSUES. (DON'T USE SPECIFIC
with so global.change.
17
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
APR 19 1990
Global Warming Conference Illustrates
Difficulty of Establishing World Policy
By BOB DAVIS
A16
sue," the paper advised.
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
The talking points were distributed to
WASHINGTON-President Bush, who
reporters by environmentalists, to whom
invited 17 nations to find "common
they had been leaked.
ground" on global warming issues at a
two-day conference here, closed the meet-
After the president's speech, D. Allan
Bromley, the president's science adviser,
ing by ignoring the differences among
them.
said the U.S. hadn't changed its global-
The conference illustrated the enormous
warming policy "whatsoever" because of
difficulty of forging a global policy to head
European criticism. He said the U.S. will
be able to "respond" to specific proposals
off a potential disastrous warming of the
late this year, when the U.S. plans to host
earth caused by a buildup of carbon diox-
ide and other so-called greenhouse gases.
preliminary talks on a global warming
The Dutch, West Germans and some
treaty. But "that doesn't mean we'll have
a particular percentage or particular time-
other Europeans said they were ready to
adopt strict limits on carbon-dioxide pro-
table" regarding greenhouse gas stabiliza-
tion or reduction in mind, he quickly
duction. Apparently nobody else was. The
added.
U.S. and the Japanese said more study
is needed, and the Japanese promoted a
The only concrete proposals President
100-year plan to solve warming through
Bush made were to build international in-
new technology. The Soviets said they need
stitutes to study global change and com-
a new tax system. The Indonesians and the
puter networks to link researchers. But
Poles said they are broke.
even those seemingly innocuous sugges-
"Due to a difficult economic situation,
tions sparked controversy when they were
we are not able at this moment to take up
circulated early yesterday. A number of
our obligations to reduce carbon dioxide
delegates thought the U.S. was trying to
emissions," said Jan Janowski, Poland's
ram the proposals past them without ask-
deputy prime minister, who spent much of
ing for their assent and that the wording
his speech praising the U.S. and trashing
of the proposals was designed to get them
totalitarianism.
to admit that scientific knowledge about
President Bush said, "We have never
global warming is more uncertain than
considered research [on global warming ] a
they believe it is. So the U.S. withdrew the
substitute for action." Padraig Flynn, the
proposals, and the president later charac-
European Council's minister for the envi-
terized them as merely "ideas."
ronment, along with a horde of environ-
The sensitivity of the delegates and the
mentalists who hovered around the confer-
apparent distrust of each other's motives
ence, pointed to that as a commitment by
was much in evidence. The U.S. repeatedly
the U.S. to do something specific about
criticized a proposal by the Dutch and oth-
global warming.
ers to sharply reduce carbon dioxide emis-
But the White House has said that for
sions. The Americans said it failed to take
some time, while dodging proposals that
into account the economic costs. But
would require the U.S. to reduce green-
J.G.M. Alders, minister of the environment
house emissions. The U.S. delegation to the
in the Netherlands, said his government
conference was advised in two pages of
had thoroughly studied the problem and
"talking points" prepared by the White
found the costs negligible.
House to avoid discussions of whether
"Do you believe we could go home and
warming is accelerating. "A better ap-
take such measures without anybody say-
proach is to raise the many uncertainties
ing, 'What are the economic effects?' he
that need to be better understood on this is-
asked.
18
The Washington Post
APR 9 1990
Climate Meeting Ends in Controversy
Europeans Complain U.S. Used Conference to Push Its Position
governments to curb industrial
By Michael Weise
gases blamed for global warming.
Washington Post Writer
The administration's strategy ap-
The White House conference on
parently was based on "Talking
global warming ended in controver-
Points," a primer prepared by
sy yesterday after European par-
spokesmen for the U.S. delegation
ticipants complained that the Unit-
and circulated Tuesday to the Cab-
ed States seemed to be trying to
inet officials who were delegates.
engineer an endorsement of its go-
Under the heading "Debates to
slow approach to the problem.
Avoid," the paper advised delegates
Minutes after the European del-
that it is "not beneficial to discuss
egates protested a "Charter for Co-
whether there is or is not warming,
ing theories reflects the concerns of
operation" that was drafted by the
or how much or how little warming.
advisers over the economic conse-
Bush administration and stressed
In the eyes of the public we will lose
the scientific uncertainty of global
quences of curbing gases produced
this debate. A better approach is to
warming, U.S. officials withdrew it
by the burning of coal and oil.
raise the many uncertainties that
from the closed working session.
need to be better understood on this
In closing remarks yesterday,
Later they described its circulation
Bush mildly scolded the delegates
issue."
as an unfortunate mistake.
As for press strategy, the primer
from 17 nations, urging them to
"It was drafted several weeks ago
urged the following: "Don't let re-
"forge solutions without the exces-
and wasn't meant to be distributed,"
porters position this conference as
sive heat of politics." But he also
said Michael R. Deland, chairman of
an attempt to delay serious deci-
sought to quiet critics by stressing
the White House Council on Envi-
sions on this issue."
"our commitment to action, to
ronmental Quality. "Sometimes in
the confusion of a conference,
A copy of the paper was obtained
sound analysis and sound policies."
things get passed out that aren't
by the Sierra Club and vouched for
supposed to be."
by administration officials.
But some European participants,
The conference grew out of a
who contend the meeting was
campaign pledge by Bush designed
skewed to justify President Bush's
to prove his concern over global
position that further research is
warming, which is believed to occur
needed on global warming before
when industrial gases cover the
any action is taken, did not accept
Earth's surface and trap solar heat.
the explanation.
In office, however, Bush's emphasis
"The United States publicly ques-
on the uncertainty of global warm-
tioned the seriousness of the Euro-
pean Community, but it backfired,"
said Pier Vellinga, director of the
Dutch National Climate Program.
"We Europeans have become a major
economic and political power, and it's
naive to challenge the integrity of a
major power. They haven't done their
international diplomacy well."
Jorgen Henningsen of the Commis-
sion for European Communities said
the document came as a "supreme
surprise" to delegates and reflected
the "one-sided approach" the admin-
istration applied to the conference.
From the start, European dele-
CONTINUED
gates criticized the two-day meet-
ing for what they described as its
patronizing tone, the near monopoly
of speakers favoring the U.S. po-
sition and the failure to discuss in
open sessions the plans of European
16
The Washington Times
APR 9 1990
TONY SNOW
He told California audiences this
And now, Indoctro-tainment
week that the government shouldn't
be in the business of abating pollu-
ope John Paul II had better
crucial. Most of the dangers are
tion. It ought to prevent it.
P
hustle. He's about the only
more felt than experienced. Envi-
The idea of re-creating man is
earthling who hasn't en-
ronmentalism in many cases pre-
nothing new, but it never can be ac-
dorsed Earth Day. Time-
sumes dangers that don't exist and
complished without the use of abso-
Warner has sponsored a conscious
poses solutions that don't work.
lute coercion, since people have this
ness-raising comedy special.
For example, some of the people
habit of following their own in-
Network newscasts have provided
who have helped with Live Aid, an
stincts. New Man projects never
schoolmarmish lectures about what
effort to feed starving Africans, now
succeed and never produce anything
to do with your toilet paper. Auto
support bans on development and
other than hardship, pain and pen-
companies, oil companies and chem-
pesticides. The development ban
ury. Unfortunately, the people who
ical manufacturers have wrapped
could help condemn underdevel-
control the symbolism of the Envi-
themselves in the day's symbolism.
oped nations to a sort of environ-
ronment are ideologues, who con-
Green capitalists have marketed T-
mentally approved poverty, while
sider the past failures of such things
shirts, paper bags, foodstuffs and
the pesticide ban will reduce agri-
as communism as failures of rigor.
even mutual funds to cash in on
cultural productivity (without im-
If the leaders had only followed the
Mother Earth's new cachet.
proving public health), thereby con-
rational course, they say, the pro-
Earth Day thus brings into focus
signing millions of people to hunger
grams would work. Environmental-
a phenomenon that for several years
and want. Think of that the next time
ism thus resists fact, experience and
has been emerging from a primor-
Meryl Streep talks about the great
history. It creates its own dogma, and
non-threat, Alar.
when reality doesn't support the
dial electronic ooze, something I'll
dogma, it insists on re-creating re-
call Total (or, more accurately, Totali-
The felt need of imminent de-
ality.
tarian) Entertainment. The institu-
struction in turn justifies quick "so-
The press, unfortunately, has
tion began as celebrity philanthropy
lutions." Hence, the righteous indig-
donned blinders in reporting on en-
with the Live Aid and Farm Aid con-
nation this week at the conference on
vironmentalism, and with notable
certs, but soon grew into something
global warming, where participants
exceptions such as Warren Brookes,
larger and more encompassing.
have derided President Bush for dar-
has adopted the view and agenda of
Our entertainment community,
ing to ask whether the phenomenon
the professional environmentalist.
and our mass media generally, no
actually exists, and if so, how we
Few reporters seem to understand
longer seems content to supply di-
might address it without throwing
that people, given an incentive to in-
versions. Increasingly it devotes
millions of people out of work and
novate, will. Few even dare entertain
itself to inculcating proper senti-
into the biggest environmental
the notion that we can reach most of
ments. With Earth Day this "ed-
threat of all, poverty.
our environmental goals without
ucational" program seeks to pro-
Former Sen. Gaylord Nelson, an
having to give up disposable diapers
mote feelings of obligation to the
Earth Day poohbah and president of
and automobiles. By taking such a
emerging ideology of environment-
the Wilderness Society, expressed
narrow and controversial line, re-
alism.
this impatience on the "MacNeil/
porters in many cases have crossed
Like most 20th-century ideol-
Lehrer NewsHour" the other night
the line that separates merely dim-
ogies, environmentalism begins by
by noting, "The president has a
witted "Info-tainment" from "In-
trumpeting what philosopher Mi-
golden opportunity to grasp this is-
doctro-tainment."
chael Oakeshott has called "felt
sue
The president is the only one
Indoctro-tainment - Totalitarian
needs." The term seems rather tame,
who can provide this kind of bold
Entertainment - gives dubious po-
considering that many environmen-
and critical leadership. That's what
litical content to such indisputably
talist policies justify themselves as
presidents are for." Sierra Club
good symbols as that of a clean,
the one and only salvation from a
Chairman Michael McCloskey in-
healthy Earth. And with the political
horrible annihilation by cancer or
credibly described the president's
and commercial success of Earth
famine or flooding or something (the
request for fact as "keeping any-
Day, you can be sure that we again
something seems to change annu-
thing substantive from happening."
will be treated to the spectacle of
ally). Still, the adjective, "felt," is
Barry Commoner, meanwhile, has
watching Tom Cruise, Meg Ryan,
called for nothing less than re-
Dan Rather or other notables em-
structuring the ways in which we
brace a nice symbol and assume the
Tony Snow is the editorial page
live, creating a New Environmental
right to tell us precisely how we
editor of The Washington Times.
Man (my characterization, not his).
ought to live our lives.
15
The New York Times
APR 18 1990
European Officials Dispute
Bush Over Global Warming
B4
By PHILIP SHABECOFF
Special to The New York Times
WASHINGTON, April 17 - Presi-
Many scientists now predict that cli-
More research,
dent Bush called today for more re-
mate shifts will occur in the next cen-
search into the scientific and economic
tury as the gases in the atmosphere re-
ramifications of global warming linked
tain radiation from the sun that would
says the
to pollution, but several European offi-
otherwise be reflected back into space.
cials attending a conference here
But in his speech to the conference, Mr.
President; action,
argued for more concrete and prompt
Bush made it plain that more research
action as well.
was necessary on the global warming
say the visitors.
The differences over how quickly to
issue and that actions to deal with the
proceed highlighted the opening ses-
situation should be weighed against
sion of a two-day conference called by
their economic consequences.
Advisers; D. Allan Bromley, Assistant
the White House to discuss research
"Environmental policies that ignore
to the President for Science and Tech-
into the scientific and economic uncer-
the economic factor, the human factor,
nology; Michael R. Deland, chairman
tainties surrounding the issue of a
are bound to fail," Mr. Bush declared.
of the Council on Environmental Qual-
pollution-induced warming of the
Several officials of major European
ity. and Mr. Reilly, the E.P.A. adminis-
earth.
nations attending the White House Con-
trator, sounded similar themes.
In his speech, Mr. Bush urged envi-
ference on Science and Economics Re-
Several of them noted that the United
ronmental ministers and other dele-
search Related to Global Change, said
States had committed $1 billion to res
gates from 18 nations to consider the
the time had come for action aimed at
search into global warming and the
economic consequences while drawing
reducing the pollution, mainly from
President has agreed to act as host to.a
up policies to deal with the problem.
carbon dioxide, that is expected to
meeting to plan a framework treaty for
The delegates, Mr. Bush said, should
international cooperation to deal with
"sort out the science on this complex
cause the earth to warm in the next.
the problem.
issue" as well as explore "the links be-
century.
Dr. Töpfer of West Germany said he
tween our environmental well-being
West Germany, the Netherlands and
had prepared a proposal for his Gov-
and our economic welfare."
France, disclosed their own plans for
ernment's cabinet that would reduce
unilateral action to reduce their emis-
'An Excuse' for Inaction
his country's emissions of carbon diox-
sions of carbon dioxide.
id, by at least 25 percent by the year
But West Germany's Minister for the
Bert Bolin, the Swede who is chair-
2005. He said the cabinet would take up,
Environment, Klaus Töpfer, said in a
man of the Intergovernmental Panel
the issue before its summer recess.
statement today, "Worldwide action
on Climate Change, said in an inter-
Per Villinga, who is in charge of
against the climatic threat is urgently
view that "this conference avoided
global warming issues in the Nether-
required, even if the complicated scien-
bringing up certain issues such as how
lands environmental ministry, said his
tific interrelationships of climatic
do you get an effective decision-mak-,
country was planning to reduce its car-
change have not all been fully under-
ing process without too much delay."
bon dioxide emissions by 5 percent by
stood.' He added, "Gaps in knowledge
Dr. Bolin said that while there was a
the end of the decade..
must not be used as an excuse for
need for research, "it must be in paral-
Talking to reporters on Monday, Mr.
worldwide inaction."
lel with action."
Villinga said that his country believed
The disagreement comes at a poten-
In his remarks, Mr. Bush said the
this conference should discuss policy
tially embarrassing time for the Ad-
conference was intended to help speed
as well as research and said that the
ministration as several nations, includ-
the efforts of the Intergovernmental
economic problems may be exaggerat
ing the United States, focus on pollution
Panel on Climate Change, a panel of
ed.
and environmental issues in advance of
experts organized by the United Na-
Earth Day next Sunday.
A number of the delegates com-*
tions Environmental Program and the
In the last year, there has been con-
plained today that, except for the
World Meteorological Organization.
siderable debate within the Bush Ad-
Deputy Prime Minister of Poland, Jan
The panel has been given the task of as--
ministration over how quickly to re-
Janowski, only American officials
sessing the state of science with regard
spond to potential global warming. Wil-
to global warming and to recommend
were permitted to speak at the plenary
liam K. Reilly, the Administrator of the
possible international responses.
sessions today.
Environmental Protection Agency, had
Other Administration officials who
initially urged a specific commitment
addressed the plenary sessions held to-
to reduce carbon dioxide, which is
day, including Treasury Secretary:
produced by the burning of fossil fuels
Nicholas F. Brady; Michael J. Boskin,,
and is thought to contribute to global
chairman of the Council of Economic
warming.
But the White House chief of staff,
John H. Sununu and other officials op-
posed such a move. At this point the en-
tire Administration, including Mr. Reil-
ly, appears to have closed ranks behind
the more cautious response sought by
Mr. Sununu.
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
APR 18 1990
World-Wide
South Africa's de Klerk rejected black
THE SOVIET UNION ORDERED cuts in
majority rule, but said apartheid must end.
natural-gas supplies to Lithuania.
Speaking to Parliament in Cape Town, the
Moving to enforce a threatened economic
president didn't announce any new meas-
embargo to break the Baltic republic's inde-
ures to dismantle the racial-segregation sys-
pendence bid, the Soviet government said
tem, and again insisted that the African Na-
that gas supplies would be "sharply re-
tional Congress renounce violence.
duced," and that oil and petroleum ship-
*
*
ments may also be cut because of Lithua-
Street battles swept through Beirut,
nia's refusal to rescind secession-related
sparked by separate power struggles for
laws. Lawmakers met in Vilnius to discuss
control of Lebanon's Shiite Moslem and
the situation, but there wasn't any indication
Maronite Christian communities. Clashes
that the order had been implemented. In
also erupted in the southern port of Sidon
Washington, the U.S. was preparing to delay
between the Israeli-backed South Lebanon
some dealings with Moscow, including eco-
Army and the leftist Nasserite militia.
nomic talks, if Lithuania's energy supplies
*
*
were reduced. (Stories on Page A19)
A court in Jerusalem upheld an order to
About 10,000 people demonstrated at
evict 150 Jewish settlers who rented build-
the Kremlin in defense of two corruption
ings owned by the Greek Orthodox Chuch in
investigators while Soviet legislators de-
the Christian quarter of the walled Old City.
bated whether the pair violated rules in
The settlement had prompted protests by
pursuit of high-ranking offenders.
Palestinian Christians, and the Israeli gov-
ernment sent a cabinet minister to the area
*
*
*
Researchers have pinpointed a gene that
in an attempt to calm rising tensions.
appears to increase the risk of alcoholism, a
*
*
*
condition that afflicts 18 million Americans.
A delegation of Contra rebels arrived in
The scientists at UCLA and the University of
Managua and agreed to sign a truce with
Texas, San Antonio, caution that other genes
the Sandinista army as a first step toward
probably predispose people to alcoholism
demobilization, according to a senior aide to
and that the findings must be repeated in a
President-elect Violeta Chamorro. In Wash-
larger study. (Story on Page B1)
ington, a U.S. official said it was doubtful
*
*
*
that all the rebels will surrender their arms
Bush called for additional research "to
by the time Ortega steps down April 25.
sort out the science" of global warming. The
*
*
president was criticized at a White House-
Jury selection began in Boston in the
sponsored conference by Europeans who ar-
case of a Christian Science couple charged
gued for action. Bush also expressed hope
with manslaughter for praying for their son
that the parley, attended by delegates from
instead of seeking medical help. The two-
17 nations, would inject economic issues into
year-old boy died in 1986 of a bowel obstruc-
the debate over the greenhouse effect.
tion. The case is being watched by the Chris-
tian Science Church, which contends its doc-
A federal judge in Atlanta froze 684 U.S.
trine of spiritual healing is under attack.
bank accounts that allegedly once contained
*
*
*
as much as $400 million in illegal Colombian
Secretary of State Baker said in a report
narcotics profits. The order came at the re-
to Congress that the U.S. won't renew its
quest of the Justice Department. The ac-
membership in Unesco because the educa-
counts are held in 173 banks in 22 states and
tional, scientific and cultural organization
the District of Columbia, with the biggest
continues to be mismanaged and shows po-
concentrations in New York and Miami.
litical bias against Israel. The U.S. withdrew
*
*
*
from the international body in 1984.
The Supreme Court ruled that a state
***
may make the hallucinogenic drug peyote
illegal in all circumstances, including its use
Died: Ralph David Abernathy, 64, a Bap-
in a Native American religious rite. In a 6-3
tist minister who was a top aide to the Rev.
decision, the justices upheld an Oregon law,
Martin Luther King Jr. during the civil-
saying the First Amendment guarantee of
rights movement of the 1960s and president
religious freedom doesn't excuse an individ-
emeritus of the Southern Christian Leader-
ual from complying with criminal laws.
ship Conference, in Atlanta.
***
3
THE CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR
JUN
19
1990
Research Goal:
Solar-Powered 21st Century
Concerns about conventional sources of energy
spur efforts to find cost-efficient, environmentally safer alternatives
Researchers at SERI, taking an ex-
watts of power in southern California. Luz
By Rushworth M. Kidder
Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor
P.15
panded view of the word "solar," use it to
will reach almost 680 megawatts by 1994 -
cover any of the alternative energy re-
enough to meet the residential needs of a
GOLDEN, COLO.
sources that ultimately derive their energy
city the size of San Francisco or Phoenix.
from the sun - including wind power, com-
Wind power, typically generated at
ILL sunlight be a central source
bustion of organic (biomass) products.
windmill farms located in high mountain
W
of United States energy for the
wave- and tidal-power, thermal gradients
passes in the West, is alreadv a viable in-
21 St century:
in the ocean, and a number of other tech-
dustry. In California alone. nearly 16.000
Here at the sprawling. low-rise campus
nologies.
wind turbines generate nearly 2 billion
of the Solar Energy Research Institute
Already, say researchers, some of these
kilowatt hours each year - as much energy
(SERI). the answer is a resounding "Yes."
technologies are cost-effective for certain
as a medium-sized nuclear plant. Because
Politically, the answer may be coming
applications. "We're very much closer to-
they are nonpolluting. savs Paul Gipe of
just in time. Conventional sources of
day than we were eight or 10 years ago to
the American Wind Energy Association in
power generation - coal. oil. and natural
eventual economic parity with a variety of
Tehachapi, Calif., these turbines alone off-
gas - are coming under increasing fire
other energy technologies," says Tom
set 1.8 billion pounds of greenhouse gases
from an environmentally conscious public
Bath, manager of SERI's Analysis and
that would otherwise pour into the atmos-
concerned about global warming. acid
Evaluation Office. Among the cost-effec-
rain. and air pollution. Also of concern:
phere from conventional power plants.
tive technologies:
Biomass conversion takes many forms,
The national security implications of de-
Photovoltaics (PV), the direct con-
some of which are alreadv cost-effective.
pendence on oil. nearly 40 percent of
version of sunlight into electricity using
Wood-burning and municipal solid-waste
which is imported.
solid-state "photo-cells." has been power-
conversion, already supplying 3 to 5 per-
But nuclear energy. once touted as an
ing satellites since Vanguard I was
cent of the nation's energy needs, have a
environmentally clean alternative. is suf-
launched in 1958. It is already the technol-
fering from continuing revelations fol-
ogy of choice for small applications far
potential of about 12 percent. More com-
lowing the explosion of a Soviet nuclear re-
from conventional power grids - rural
plex technologies - including the bio-
actor at the Chernobyl power station in
water pumps. communication relay sta-
logical conversion of energy crops into al-
1986. The political difficulties surround-
tions. vaccine refrigerators in third-world
cohol fuels and biogas, the cultivation of
ing the start up of the Seabrook Nuclear
nations - and is even competitive for some
microalgae and oilseed crops to produce
Power Plant in New Hampshire are seen
remote homes in the United States. "If you
diesel fuel, and the thermal conversion of
by many as a portent of greater challenges
are more than a third of a mile from the
biomass into synthetic gas - are already in
facing nuclear installations in the future.
grid," Dr. Bath says, "it pays you to buy PV
limited operation. Taken together. they
Can sunlight fill the gap?
could ultimately produce as much as 20
"The progress in the last decade has
and batteries today rather than try to hook
percent of the nation's energy needs.
been truly remarkable." says Robert
up."
Hydrogen, a gas that produces only
Stokes, deputy director of research for
Solar thermal power plants like the
water vapor when it burns and produces
SERI. a 13-vear-old research facility
Luz International plant at Kramer Junc-
no greenhouse gases or air pollution, is in-
owned by the United States Department of
tion, Calif., use acres of trough-shaped
creasingly being considered as a trans-
Energy: SERI is currently budgeted at
mirrors to focus the sun's ravs on vacuum-
portation fuel and as a means to store en-
$100 million a year. "We believe that the
insulated tubes of oil. Heated to 735 de-
ergy. Easily made by an electrolvsis process
government is now set up on a course that
grees F, the oil is used to generate super-
that uses direct current to split water
will gradually increase the research and
heated steam that drives a turbine
development investment in renewable en-
generator. At a cost of less than 8 cents per
molecules into hydrogen and oxygen
ergy to the point that many of these tech-
kilowatt hour. say plant officials, their
atoms, it needs only a cheap source of elec-
nologies will become cost-effective," Mr.
power is already cheaper than nuclear
tricity to be economically attractive. Hy-
Stokes savs.
power and is becoming competitive with
drogen-powered automobile prototypes
oil and coal. Now producing 274 mega-
are alreadv in existence. A recent report
from the World Resources Institute in
Washington notes that by the turn of the
CONTINUED
5
JUN 19 1990
CONTINUED
THE CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR
century. as the cost of producing photovol-
constant or increases. "With a business-as-
Researchers at SERI acknowledge that
taic electricity falls to between 2 and 3.5
usual kind of R&D by the United States."
the 1980s were a quiet period in the his-
cents per kilowatt hour in the sunnier re-
he savs. "renewable goes from about 8 per-
tory of solar energy. The flurry of public
gions of the nation. hydrogen could be-
cent of the US energy mix to around 13 by
interest following the 1973-74 Arab oil em-
come a cost-competitive fuel.
2030. If you intensify R&D. we can get up
bargo to an upsurge in research into al-
The "bottom line" for all these alterna-
to 28 percent of the energy mix by 2030.'
ternative energy sources. As oil prices fell.
tive sources. Bath savs. depends on
The 28 percent figure, he savs. is "roughly
however, the urgency to develop solar re-
whether the nation's research and
equivalent to what coal or gas-and-nuclear
sources also declined - leaving alternative
development (R&D) investment remains
do today."
energy with the reputation of a kind of ide-
alistic crusade.
GUY STUART STAFF
Over the last decade. however. steady
The Art of Photovoltaics
progress has been made on a number of
fronts. In photovoltaics, for example. solar
cells are now available that are more than
HOW A SOLAR CELL WORKS
27 percent efficient in converting the sun's
energy. By contrast, nature's solar conver-
Cover
Current
sion process, known as photosynthesis, is
glass
"on the order of 1/2 of 1 percent," says Dr.
Stokes.
"The long-term horizon for PV has
barely been scratched." says Kenneth
Sunlight frees electrical
Zweibel of SERI's Photovoltaic Program.
charge carriers (electrons
Anti-
and holes) to create
"The potential is there for 30, 40, 50, 60
reflective
voltage that drives current
percent efficiency as the technology ma-
coating
through a circuit.
tures."
In fact, it is that very maturing of the
Back
technology that drives the success of solar
Transparent
N Panels on roof are
contact
programs. "In contrast to conventional en-
adhesive
set to capture
maximum sunlight.
ergy systems, these technologies are gener-
ally not resource-limited - thev're tech-
-
+
nology-limited," Bath says. He adds,
Front
Electron
however, that "the resource in many cases
contact
Hole
is diffuse, and it's erratic. Those two factors
provide the source of the technological
challenge."
For these reasons, some technologies
work well only in certain regions. Diffuse
Positive-type
sunlight, of the sort usually available under
Negative-type
semiconductor
cloud cover in the nation's Northeast, is an
semiconductor
adequate source of PV energy, but it will
WHERE TO GET THE MOST SUN
not power today's solar thermal plants,
which need to be located in the Southwest.
Average annual solar radiation
And wind power, which is erratic, will
benefit greatly from continuing research
into energy storage systems such as hydro-
gen conversion, new batteries, and super-
conducting rings.
Watching the rate of progress in solar
technologies, however, Mr. Zweibel is opti-
mistic. "Solar," he savs flatly, "can meet the
global-warming crisis."
Photovoltaics
can supply a
major amount
Megawatt-hours
of electricity
per square meter
in every region
1.6-1.8
2.6-3.0
of the United
States.
1.8-2.2
3.0-3.4
2.2-2.6
3.4-3.8
Source: SERI S&T In Review, 1988
6
EPA in the News
z3162xxnsr
d W bc-greenhouse: 435ped sked 6-7 0205
(adv 6 pm edt)
WASHINGTON (UPI) - Natural gas appears to be less harmful than
other fossil fuels when it comes to aggravating the greenhouse effect, a
Swedish researcher reported Thursday.
In a study published in the journal Science, Henning Rodhe of
Stockholm University calculated the greenhouse impact of carbon dioxide,
methane and other gases emitted from the burning of coal, petroleum and
natural gas.
"A rough analysis
shows that natural gas is preferable to
other fossil fuels in consideration of the greenhouse effect as long as
its leakage can be limited to 3 to 6 percent, 11 Rhode wrote.
Spillage, however, has been one of the major problems plaguing the
natural gas industry.
The so-called greenhouse gases act like the glass windows of a
greenhouse to trap heat in Earth's atmosphere and prevent it from
escaping back into space. Many scientists think increased human
production of greenhouse gases, from such sources as automobile exhausts
and forest burning, will aggravate the greenhouse effect and cause
global warming.
up1 06-07-90 09:10 ped
Table 2
Emissions Standards for Combustion Facilities
(Milligrams per Normal Cubic Meter, Mg/Nm¹)
New Plants
Existing Plants
Country
SO₂
NOₓ
SO₂
NOₓ
United States
Solid
1240
475-620
None prior to 1971
Liquid
920
350-570
Gas
1135
285
Canada
Solid
615
615
None
None
Liquid
700
350
Gas
850
287
France
Plants evaluated on a case-by-case basis.
Italy
Solid
400
650
1200
1200
Japan
Solid
223
411
644
200-400
Liquid
223
267
644
130-180
Gas
223
123
644
60-130
United Kingdom
"Best practicable means"
West Germany
Solid
400
200
400
200
Liquid
400
150
400
150
Gas
35
100
NA
NA
Energy Consumption by Fuel of G-7 Countries, 1989
(Percent Share)
US
Can
Fr
It
Jap
UK
WG
Oil
41
30
42
59
58
38
43
N Gas
22
21
12
23
10
23
17
Coal
27
13
9
9
18
31
28
Hydro
3
28
7
9
4
1
1
Nuclear
6
8
30
0
10
7
12
Conservation R&D Expenditures Among G-7 Countries, 1988
(Million $ US)
US
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
UK
W. Germany
165
33
NA
61
63
37
14
Aggregate End-Use Energy Prices Among G-7 Countries, 1988
($ US per Barrel)
US
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
UK
W. Germany
49.33
53.33
94.05
89.11
159.19
77.85
76.65
Table 1
G-7 Fuel Specifications
Sulfer
Lead
Percent
Percent
Grams per Liter
Country
Diesel
Fuel Oil
Gasoline
United States
0.50
0.25-1.5
0.26
Canada
NA
NA
0.29
France
0.30
0.30-4.0
0.25
Italy
0.30
0.30-3.0
0.30
Japan
0.50
0.50-1.2
NA¹
United Kingdom
0.30
0.50.4.0
0.15
West Germany
0.20
0.15
0.15
1
Essentially all gasoline is unleaded.
THE CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR
JUN
1990
Let's Cool the Global-Warming Hype
P.14
ET'S try an exercise in global
leases that accompany it are not immune to
economic restructuring all around the
L
the rhetoric of environmental hype. And. es-
world. It will involve a new approach 10 agri-
environmental hype. Breathe in. Now
pecially as regards possible dangers from
culture to feed burgeoning population. And
breathe out. You have just added a
breath of "dangerous. heat-trapping green-
pollution-driven global warming. such hype
it will involve new approaches to indus-
house" gas to Earth's atmosphere.
is counterproductive. We've had too much
trialization. This can only be done through
So what? You're not going to stop breath-
of it. It's become a turnoff for many policy-
a truly global cooperative effort in which
makers. who have to make tough economic
rich nations help poorer countries find prac-
ingjust because the distinguished World Re-
decisions in dealing with
tical alternatives to traditional
sources Institute in Washington hangs the
environmental problems.
ROBERT C.
means of economic growth. It
epithet "dangerous" on carbon dioxide
It's difficult for such hard-
COWEN
can only be done when indus-
(CO₂) as it adds one more press release to
the paper mountain of global-warming
nosed officials to consider CO₂
trialized nations themselves act
alarms.
"dangerous" when animals ex-
to implement the costly waste
Now before those environmentalists
hale it and plants use it as an es-
management. energy saving.
sential nutrient. Use of such an
and other conservation meas-
jump all over me. please note that I'm not
out to bash the World Resources Institute or
epithet makes environmentalists
ures needed to preserve the
seem prone to exaggeration and
environment.
to trivialize the grave environmental chal-
lenge our late 20th century world faces.
devalues the very serious envi-
The scope of the problem is
ronmental problems they are
immense, as the new World Re-
That challenge is well-documented in the
trying to publicize.
sources report shows. While
"World Resources 1990-91 Guide to the
Global Environment," just issued by the in-
In fact, the methane gas
population grows. useful water
stitute in collaboration with the United Na-
emitted by the digestive processes of hu-
resources shrink, forests disappear at a rate
mans and other mammals is a more efficient
of 40 to 50 million acres a year (faster than
tions Environment and Development Pro-
grams. It's published through Oxford
heat-trapper than CO₂. And the increasing
previously estimated), and hundreds of
release of methane from cattle. sheep, and
other local and regional environmental as-
University Press. With environmental and
economic data on 146 countries plus focus
goats and from bacteria in rice paddies is as
saults add up to an impending global trag-
essavs on such major challenges as climate
important a contributor to possible global
edy: The cold hard facts of a reference like
change or population and health. the report
warming as is the increasing release of CO₂
this can persuade decisionmakers to begin
is a highly valuable resource for anvone con-
from the use of fossil fuels.
to act.
cerned about our planet.
Curbing the emissions of just these two
But environmentalists should tone down
greenhouse gases alone will involve major
the alarmist rhetoric.
Yet scholarly as the report is. the press re-
10
THE CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR
JUN 19 1990
The Advantages of Nuclear Energy P.20
Regarding the opinion-page column "Effi-
these people fear the economic "fall-out" of nu-
ciency Trumps Nuclear Power." May 23: We
clear power plants producing cheap electricity.
Americans have been prodigal in our use of en-
Who will pay for increasing foreign auto and
ergy - especially electricity. Per-household use of
electricity has declined slightly in the wake of the
oil imports: Coal exports? The American public
Arab oil embargoes. But in recent times the trend
generally votes 3 to 2 in favor of nuclear power.
has gone the other way. The most powerful influ-
The safety record of over 100 US nuclear power
plants in operation supplying 20 percent of our
ence toward conservation will be economic.
The author observes that provision of more
electricity speaks louder than the NRC's regula-
tion predicting nuclear doom.
nuclear power would increase the dangers of nu-
Walston Chubb
clear accidents. True, but no deaths have OC-
Murrysville, Pa.
curred in US electricity-generating power plants.
Three Mile Island proved only that the safety sys-
tems work.
And people lose their lives in mines, manufac-
turing, and transportation accidents.
A typical coal-fired generating plant emits
about 2,800,000 pounds - 35,000,000 cubic feet
- of carbon-dioxide every hour. A nuclear plant
emits none.
The author asserts that nuclear energy
"cannot substantially alleviate global warming."
But the French generate over 70 percent of their
electricity by nuclear power, and their air-quality
improvements have been spectacular.
We must increase our electricity-gen-
erating capacity. and given economic
and environmental considerations, the
only viable source is nuclear.
Much has been said and written
about solar. Luz International, the pre-
dominant firm in this field, plans to
have some 680 megawatts in operation
in southern California by 1994. This is
about one-half of the capacity of one large nuclear
plant.
We need improvements in transportation, and
again, nuclear generation well may be an answer.
The big car manufacturers are developing elec-
tric vehicles. These cars will call for vast mega-
watts of electricity to charge their batteries. This
power can only come from nuclear generation.
Earl E. Eigabroadt
Port Orchard, Wash.
(Ret.) Capt., Army of the United States
This column states that "the practice of giving
our public trust and dollars to the technology
with the best lobbyists must stop
There are dozens of anti-nuclear lobbyists for
every pro-nuclear lobbyist. Democrats and Re-
publicans support the Nuclear Regulatory Com-
mission (NRC) in order to please coal miners,
auto workers, and petroleum refiners. Many of
9
APR 30 1990
TIME
0.5° C (1.1° F), and even that measurement
A Sizzling Scientific Debate
is suspect. Moreover, the rise has been un-
even. From about 1940 to 1970, a cooling
period inspired some forecasters to predict
Skeptics claim that the evidence for global warming is not so hot
a return of the ice ages.
Despite the uncertainties, there is a
By CHARLES P. ALEXANDER
future. Scientists generally agree that an
broad consensus that nations should slow
unchecked accumulation of greenhouse
down the rate at which they are changing
OCHRISTO
Environmentalists staged
gases will eventually lead to warming, but
the atmosphere. Said West German Envi-
Earth Day to dramatize a
no one knows when it will start, how much
ronment Minister Klaus Töpfer at the
simple message: The planet
will take place or how rapidly it will occur.
Washington conference: "Worldwide ac-
is threatened by a host of
The most widely accepted estimate is a rise
tion against the climatic threat is urgently
man-made ills, from toxic
in the earth's average temperature of
required, even if the complicated scientific
landfills to ozone depletion.
1.5° C to 4.5° C (3° to 8° F) as early as
interrelationships of climatic change have
Endangered
Earth
But at least one part of the
2050. An increase in the upper part of that
not been fully understood."
message-the theory that
range could produce disastrous climatic ef-
To his credit, Bush has already taken
the buildup of carbon dioxide and other
fects, including rising sea levels and severe
several steps that will help combat global
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will
droughts in some areas.
warming. Among other things, the White
cause global warming-has come under
But the computer models that make
House has 1) earmarked $1 billion for
considerable attack. A small but vocal
the projections may not accurately reflect
global climate research next year; 2) com-
group of scientists contends that the case
such factors as the role of clouds and the
mitted the U.S. to phasing out production
for warming is sketchy and based on inade-
heat-absorbing capacity of the oceans. As
of chlorofluorocarbons, potent green-
quate computer models.
these phenomena are better understood,
house gases, by the year 2000; and 3)
Forces within the White House, led by
warming projections will undoubtedly be
vowed to plant a billion trees, which
chief of staff John Sununu, have seized
revised in one direction or another.
would absorb CO2 from the air. But Ad-
upon the debate and persuaded President
Evidence that greenhouse warming has
ministration officials admit that Bush ad-
Bush to take a cautious approach to the
already started is at best tenuous. Even
vanced most of the measures for reasons
problem. While not dismissing the green-
though some scientists believe the concen-
other than reducing global warming. And
house threat, the President has empha-
tration of CO2 in the air has shot up 25%
environmentalists argue that the Govern-
sized the need for more scientific research
since the early 1800s, the average global
ment should do much more to discourage
to help determine the proper policy re-
temperature has risen by no more than
the burning of fossil fuels. Among the
sponse. This go-slow ap-
possibilities: raise the gas-
proach has irritated gov-
THE THEORY
SOME UNCERTAINTIES
oline tax or use financial
ernment officials in several
1
Energy from sunlight heats the earth's
3
One uncertainty involves
incentives to encourage
other countries, especially
surface. At the same time, the earth cools
the role of clouds. A warming
people to buy smaller,
in Western Europe. As the
itself by giving off infrared radiation. Some
INFRARED
trend could cause more water to
more efficient cars.
Europeans point out, many
of this radiation escapes into space,
RADIATION
evaporate and increase the
The White House,
scientists still fear that
but some is trapped by the
earth's cloud cover. That, in
however, worries about
global warming could take
atmosphere and continues
turn, could reduce the amount
the economic conse-
place unless strong action is
to heat the earth.
of sunlight reaching the earth's
quences of forcing sudden,
taken to prevent it.
surface, which would have a
drastic curbs in fossil-fuel
Last week representa-
CO2 AND
cooling effect that would
use. From the Administra-
tives from 18 nations gath-
OTHER
counteract the warming.
GASES
tion's point of view, draco-
ered in Washington for a
nian action seems highly
global-warming conference
debatable so long as the
set up by the White House.
scientific evidence for the
The Administration had
hoped to get a debate going
2
SUNLIGHT
SUNLIGHT
greenhouse effect is
sketchy. "We are not at
on the uncertainties of the
the point where we can bet
greenhouse effect. Instead,
the economy," says a Sun-
most of the delegates ap-
unu aide.
peared to agree that the
3
That may be so. The
global-warming threat is
Administration is wise to
real and potentially serious.
consider the possible eco-
In the face of this strong
nomic damage before com-
sentiment, President Bush
mitting itself to a major re-
denied that he was taking
Hart
Steve
duction in carbon dioxide
global warming too lightly.
4
TIME
emissions. But surely the
The President reconfirmed
Government can safely do
a U.S. pledge to cooperate
much more than it has al-
in a United Nations effort
ready done to spur energy
to forge an international
2
The continuous buildup
4
Oceans have a greater
conservation. It is possible
agreement on dealing with
climate change.
of carbon dioxide and other
ability to retain heat than land-
to buy a great deal of insur-
gases in the atmosphere enhances
masses do. It is possible that for
ance against global warm-
The greenhouse dilem-
its tendency to trap heat and could
the immediate future, the oceans
ing without sabotaging the
ma illustrates the difficulty
lead to global warming. But no one
will absorb enough heat to keep
economy.
-Reported by
of setting policy based on
knows how rapidly the warming will
the atmosphere from warming
Michael Duffy and Glenn
uncertain projections of the
occur, and other factors may offset it.
substantially.
Garelik/Washington
49
TIME
APR 30 1990
L.A.'s High-Watt Highway
Electric cars get a boost in the capital of smog
P.96
B
attery-powered autos are clean, quiet
generating a lot of excitement in pollution-
and remarkably energy efficient-but
plagued Los Angeles. "I'm thrilled," says
they have a huge problem. Once they get
Jim Lents, executive officer of the South
on the road, even the most advanced mod-
Coast Air Quality Management District,
els can travel only 190 km (120 miles) or so
which voted last spring to require that all
before they run out of wattage, and then
cars in Southern California operate on
they need to be plugged into an outlet for
electricity or other clean fuel by the year
about six hours to get fully recharged. Now
2007. "This is what we were hoping to stim-
the city of Los Angeles and a
California power company
have proposed a radical solu-
PULLING POWER
tion to the problem of power-
FROM THE ROAD
ing electric cars: electrify the
Storage
roads. Last week they an-
battery
nounced a $2 million demon-
stration project in which elec-
Propulsion
tric cables will be run under
motor
Control
electronics
300 meters (1,000 ft.) of road-
way in a west Los Angeles de-
velopment called Playa Vista.
Electricity from the cables
would be used both to power
electric cars and to recharge
Retractable
their batteries for travel on
metal plates
conventional roads.
suspended
"It's really very simple,"
from the car
says John Reeves, research
manager at Southern Califor-
Power cables embedded
nia Edison, which is putting up
in the roadway
half of the money (the rest is
Diagram
coming from the Los Angeles
Sleve
Hart
department of water and pow-
er). When electrical power passes through
ulate." Automakers have also been tinker-
a wire, it creates a magnetic field. A metal
ing along these lines. Peugeot and Fiat
plate moving through that field can, by a
have announced plans to sell electric vehi-
process known as induction, convert the
cles in Europe within the next few years,
magnetic force back into electricity. When
and Ford is testing an electrified model of
such a metal plate is suspended from the
the Aerostar van. Not to be left behind,
bottom of a battery-run car, the vehicle
GM Chairman Roger Smith announced
can pick up power simply by moving down
last week that his company will proceed
an electrified road. For maximum perfor-
with commercial production of its sleek
mance the plate needs to glide within 5 cm
battery-powered Impact, although experts
to 8 cm (2 in. to 3 in.) of the road's surface,
say the sedan is not likely to reach dealer
which must therefore be unusually
showrooms before 1995.
smooth.
Electrifying even a few short stretches
Even if Los Angeles' limited experi-
of roadway could increase the range and
ment is successful, the technology will not
effectiveness of such voltswagens dramati-
necessarily be widely used. "This is real fu-
cally. Developers in Playa Vista hope to
turistic stuff," says Sean McAlinden, a re-
wire the subdivision's two-mile main artery
searcher with the University of Michigan's
and service the neighborhood with all-
Office for the Study of Automotive Trans-
electric trucks and vans. Edison's Reeves
portation. "It's sort of a Star Wars fanta-
dreams of extending the network until it
sy." Even Southern California Edison offi-
crisscrosses the state. Electrifying one or
cials concede it would take billions of
two lanes of a freeway, he says, might be
dollars and decades of public works to
enough to keep fleets of buses and cars
electrify the streets of Los Angeles. There
charged up. People wedded to gas-gulping
may never be electric roads in the snow-
cars could still drive on electrified high-
bound Midwest or in Eastern cities subject
ways, but they might get dirty looks
to the freeze-and-thaw cycles that turn the
from the new breed of battery-powered
best-made highways into roller coasters of
motorists.
By Philip Elmer-DeWitt.
bumps and potholes.
Reported by Sylvester Monroe/Los Angeles and
Still, the electric-roadway project is
Joe Szczesny/Detroit
50
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
June 22, 1990
MEMORANDUM FOR ROGER B. PORTER
FROM:
EDWARD GOLDSTEIN
This.
ADAM ISLES
SUBJECT:
National Governors' Association Task
Force on Global Climate Change
Governors James Thompson (R-Illinois), Madeleine Kunin (D-
Vermont), Buddy Roemer (D-Louisiana) and Terry Branstad (R-
Iowa) will meet with the President Monday morning to present
the final report of the National Governors' Association Task
Force on Global Climate Change. This memorandum summarizes the
recommendations of the report.
The report presents a balanced view of the global climate
change issue.
The Governors' report calls for a serious response to
potential global climate change while acknowledging
"considerable uncertainty about the rate, magnitude, and
effects of global climate change" and possible "substantial"
costs of prevention which could have "serious effects on the
economic well-being of the nation." The report states,
"scientific uncertainty and the difficulty in accurately
predicting climate change are compounded by the existing
natural variability of meteorological and biological systems."
Furthermore, it adds, "the social and economic costs of the
measures that might reduce the threat are not yet well
understood, and a comprehensive assessment of the available
options has only recently begun. Mitigation and adaptation to
climate change is an issue that can be effectively addressed
only with the cooperation of all nations."
Some report recommendations reflect Administration policy.
The report calls for action on a number of fronts. Some
of the reports' recommendations reflect Administration policy.
They include: Promotion of cost-effective energy conservation
and efficiency measures; support for the phase-out of
chlorofluorocarbons; support for the development of alternative
energy sources, including safe nuclear power; encouragement of
tree planting through the President's tree planting initiative;
and the funding of a comprehensive research program about the
scientific and economic implications of potential global
climate change.
-2-
Conversely, the report differs with current Administration
policy in asserting that the U.S. should lead negotiations on
an international framework convention that would result in
specific commitments from all nations on greenhouse gas
reductions, energy efficiency and population growth. The
report also claims that the federal government bears a special
responsibility to assist states or industries that may be
adversely affected by economic transition in response to global
climate change.
Report Findings.
1.
Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are
increasing due to human activities.
2.
Broad scientific consensus has developed that increasing
the concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse
gases will increase the atmosphere's heat-trapping ability
and warm the climate to some degree.
3.
Controlling emissions is central to reducing potential
climate change. This should be done through energy
policy, and measures to slow deforestation.
4.
States have a key role to play because of authority over
utilities, land-use, transportation, taxation etc.
5.
An effective solution to global climate change must
involve sustained action by the federal government and the
international community, including developing nations.
Policy Recommendations.
1.
Develop an international agreement to protect the
atmosphere. The report calls for specific commitments
from all nations on greenhouse gas emissions, energy
efficiency and population growth.
2.
Utilize Cost-Effective Energy Conservation and Efficiency
Measures to Stabilize U.S. Emissions of Carbon Dioxide.
The report proposes the local reform of electric utility
regulation through the application of least cost planning
and rate design reforms. The report also calls for
improved energy efficiency standards for buildings,
appliances, transportation (including an increase in the
corporate average fuel economy standard) and state
programs. Additionally, the governors endorse increased
emphasis on telecommuting and ride sharing initiatives.
-3-
3.
Stop production of and recycle chlorofluorocarbons, and
cost-effective strategies to stabilize or reduce other
greenhouse gases. The report calls for stabilization of
U.S. emissions of methane, nitrous oxide, ozone, and other
greenhouse gases and encourages methane recovery from
waste and the production of more efficient and
environmentally sensitive fertilizers.
4.
Develop and commercialize alternative energy systems,
including clean fossil, renewable energy sources, and safe
nuclear power. Among the energy sources favored in the
report were hydropower, clean coal, solar, wind and
geothermal.
5.
Implement forestry programs to reduce the effects of
global climate change.
6.
Plan and act now to adapt to climate change. The report
calls for increased attention to water resource planning,
the strengthening of coastal zone management programs,
additional funding for climate research related to
agriculture and forestry.
7.
Pursue an aggressive research program to reduce key
uncertainties about global climate change.
Finally, the report calls on the federal government to
assist states or industries that may be adversely affected by a
move to a less energy-and carbon-intensive economy: "The
federal government must plan for and provide a transition so
that our national goals do not become unreasonable limitations
on the growth and development of particular states or
industries."
TALKING POINTS FOR NGA TASK FORCE ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
THANK YOU FOR COMING HERE TODAY TO PRESENT THIS
REPORT AND THANK YOU FOR ALL YOUR HARD WORK.
I HAVEN'T READ THE REPORT YET so I AM NOT IN A POSITION
TO ENDORSE ITS FINDINGS.
HOWEVER, FROM WHAT YOU TELL ME YOUR REPORT IS A WELL-
BALANCED AND CLEAR DISCUSSION OF THESE VERY COMPLEX ISSUES.
MADELEINE (KUNIN), I REMEMBER THAT YOU WERE HERE WITH US A
YEAR AGO THIS MONTH WHEN WE ANNOUNCED THE COMPONENTS OF
OUR CLEAN AIR BILL.
A LOT HAS HAPPENED IN CONGRESS OVER THE PAST YEAR AND I
BELIEVE WE. ARE CLOSE TO GETTING A BILL WHICH BREAKS A
DEADLOCK ON CLEAN AIR WHICH HAS EXISTED FOR FAR TOO MANY
YEARS.
I TAKE VERY SERIOUSLY THE OBLIGATIONS OF ENVIRONMENTAL
STEWARDSHIP. I BELIEVE WE CAN PROTECT THE ENVIRONMENT
WITHOUT DESTROYING OUR COMPETITIVE ECONOMY.
AS GOVERNORS, YOU ARE TO BE COMMENDED FOR YOUR WORK IN
RECOGNIZING THAT WE ALL HAVE A ROLE IN THIS WORK AND THAT
INCLUDES STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR HARD WORK AND THANK YOU FOR YOUR
LEADERSHIP.
TALKING POINTS FOR NGA TASK FORCE ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
I understand that some of the report recommendations
reflect the ongoing environmental policies of this
administration. I am pleased that your report calls for
energy conservation and efficiency measures, efforts to
plant trees throughout our cities and countryside, the
development of alternative energy sources including safe
nuclear power and an aggresive research program on the
science and economic aspects of climate change.
I understand that your report states that an overreaction
to potential global climate change, could have "serious
effects on the economic well-being of the nation." Given
that there are real uncertainties about global climate
change, we are reluctant at this time to agree to
international resolutions which call for severe reductions
in emissions.
THE WASHINGTON POST
FRIDAY. JUNE 15, 1990
Farmers, Environmentalists
in Conservation Accord
House Agriculture Committee Drafts Package
to Save Wetlands, Improve Water Quality
draconian restrictions on land use,
mittee debate on the entire farm
By Guy Gugliotta
drafted an early version of the con-
bill, expected to move to the House
Washington Post Staff Writer
servation provision that environ-
floor for consideration after the July
The House Agricuiture Commit-
mentalists found unacceptable.
4th recess. The Senate committee
tee, buoyed by an unprecedented
But in a protracted series of
still has not completed work on its
compromise between farm groups
working sessions, a compromise
version of the bill.
and environmentalists, yesterday
was worked out on key provisions
The package includes the first
approved an ambitious package of
that lobbyists on both sides agreed
provision in a farm bill for a water
conservation measures designed to
they would not challenge later.
quality program aimed at control-
improve water quality and protect
Committee Chairman E "Kika" de
ling the quantity and types of chem-
wetlands on the nation's farms.
la Garza (D-Tex.) called the final
icals leeching into local water sup-
The committee reached a com-
product "probably the most ambi-
plies as a result of pesticide and
promise after several weeks of
tious effort we have ever had in the
fertilizer runoff.
wrangling with environmental
history of farm legislation. It's a
Environmentalists had wanted a
groups. Committee members and
good package for farmers and for
mandatory program, but settled for
commodity groups, reflecting the
the environment."
a voluntary plan monitored and im-
interests of farmers worried about
The session also completed com-
plemented by the Department of
27
keep it permanently out of produc-
able for fines not just for planting
tion.
crops on wetlands but simply if they
The most bitter and long-running
"alter the land."
controversy, however, involved ex-
Hinkle commended the commit-
isting "swampbuster" legislation
tee for "deciding their own environ-
that takes subsidies away from
mental future instead of having it
farmers who drain and plant crops
happen to them," but noted that
Agriculture. Congressmen had
on wetlands.
environmental groups had addition-
made it clear they would not vote
The committee spent hours in
al concerns that had not been ad-
for a mandatory program.
closed and open session redefining
dressed in committee. These, she
"We wanted a beginning," said
"wetland" and modifying its appli-
said, would be raised on the floor of
Maureen Hinkle of the National Au-
cation. "Providing this guidance,"
said Rep. E. Thomas Coleman (R-
Congress if arrangements could not
dubon Society. "We think farmers
be worked out beforehand.
need to become part of the solution;
Mo.), "was the most important
Committee members nonetheless
with this legislation they have the
thing we did."
Under the legislation approved
remained optimistic: "These nego-
opportunity to step forward and put
yesterday, farmers violating
tiations were as good as negotia-
their land into the program."
swampbuster will not have their
tions of this type can be," said Illi-
Another first for environmental-
program benefits terminated imme-
nois Rep. Edward R. Madigan, the
ists was a program allowing farm-
diately, but instead will be required
committee's ranking Republican. "I
ers to receive a payment to stop
to pay a $750 fine and restore the
think we're moving in the right di-
growing crops on wetlands. The
land.
rection and I hope environmental-
government will fund the restora-
Environmentalists also succeeded
ists will look at this as an opportu-
tion of the land to its natural state
in changing the language of the
nity for cooperation rather than to
and pay farmers up to $250,000 to
measure so that farmers will be li-
take advantage."
CLIPS LIST - Friday, June 15, 1990 B115
"Bush Says He'd Veto Owl-Job Legislation"
(Oregonian/Wire Stories - 6-14-90)
"House Committee Completes Farm Bill"
(Wall Street Journal - 6-15-90) (Wetlands)
"Astronomers Defend Their Own Rare Species"
(Albuquerque Tribune - 6-13-90)
Additional Stories: OCS/MMS Issues (Oil & Gas Journal
Management) - 6-10-90 - Huntington Beach Oil Spill -
6-4-90) - Marine Santuary Program/MS (Coastal Zone
Subsistence - Mobil Oil/N.C. - Arco Awaiting Well Decision
Misc. stories on American Indians, Parks & other clips
on DOI issues.
JUN
8
1990
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT
Greenhouse redesign
ENVIRONMENT
Shifting some blame to the Third World
P.47
ext fall, when U.S. negotiators
countries with far less industry must an-
a host of human activities. In particular,
N
travel to Geneva to discuss pros-
swer for their contributions to the accu-
raising cattle and cultivating rice are the
pects for an international climate-
mulation of greenhouse gases. Brazil,
subcontinent's equivalent of heavy in-
change treaty, they will be armed with
for instance, is transformed from a pet-
dustry: Methane is formed by the de-
many more bargaining chips than they
ty criminal to a big-time felon, over-
composition of plant matter in the
brought to the first such conference. A
whelmingly because of the torching of
stomachs of cattle and released as flatu-
new study conducted by the Washing-
its forests, which releases 24 times more
lence, and by decaying vegetation in wet
ton-based World Resources Institute
greenhouse gases there than does fuel
rice paddies.
(WRI) upsets the longstanding assump-
combustion.
But the quantity of gases released is
tion that rich, industri-
GARY VISGAITISUS8WR
alized countries are the
Recalculating the greenhouse effect
primary greenhouse
culprits. In fact, the
startling conclusion is
that developing coun-
tries spew out almost as
much in the way of
heat-trapping gases as
do wealthy nations.
Traditionally, when
scientists have appor-
tioned blame for what is
an undisputed increase
in greenhouse gases,
they have relied on esti-
mates of the carbon-di-
oxide gas generated by
fossil-fuel combustion
DEFORESTATION
BOVINE DIGESTION
RICE GROWING
and cement manufac-
ture. Reasoning that
Every acre of forest burned
Each year Bessie releases 77
Each acre of rice paddy
calculations based on
spews about 50 tons of
pounds of methane into the
releases 480 pounds of
just one of the three
carbon into the atmosphere.
atmosphere. Cow flatulence
methane yearly, contributing
major greenhouse gases
In 1988, Brazil released the
makes up more than 2 percent
3.5 percent of the warming
(the others being meth-
equivalent of 350 million tons
of worldwide additions to
potential of greenhouse
ane and chlorofluoro-
of carbon.
greenhouse gases.
gases emitted.
carbons, or CFC's) ap-
proximated the true
picture fairly enough, they identified
only part of the reason for the reshuf-
four out of the five top villains as First
Biggest greenhouse contributors
fling of greenhouse culprits. The gases
World nations. But WRI researchers fi-
According to revised calculations, three of the
themselves have different biological and
five largest contributors of greenhouse gases
nally did the calculations taking into
chemical properties that make them
are nonindustrialized countries
consideration all three gases, all the ma-
more or less effective as heat trappers.
jor sources of those gases and each gas's
OLD
Percent
REVISED
Percent
Carbon dioxide, for instance, is absorbed
INDEX
of total
INDEX
of total
potency as a heat trapper. The new in-
constantly-by plants during photosyn-
U.S.
22%
U.S.
18%
dex of the top five greenhouse villains
thesis and by organisms in oceans and
U.S.S.R.
18%
U.S.S.R.
12%
includes three impoverished countries-
soils. In fact, less than half of the carbon
Brazil, China and India.
China
11%
Brazil
11%
dioxide that is pumped into the air by
Even with WRI's new and more equi-
Japan
4%
China
7%
factories and other man-made sources
table accounting system, the U.S. still
West Germany
3%
India
4%
actually remains in the atmosphere to
tops the list of offenders, gushing out the
trap heat. Methane, on the other hand,
USN&WR-Bask data World Resources Institute Carbon Dioxide
equivalent of 1 billion metric tons of
Information Analysis Center Oak Ridge National Laboratory
traps heat 20 to 30 times more efficiently
carbon into the atmosphere each year,
than carbon dioxide, although it decays
almost one fifth of the world's total. The
Taking into account other activities
more rapidly in the atmosphere.
Soviet Union also remains a major of-
that give rise to greenhouse gases, such
The third major type of greenhouse
fender, releasing the equivalent of almost
as rice farming and animal husbandry,
gas, the CFC's, which are used as refrig-
three quarters of a billion metric tons
also affects the lineup. India, for exam-
erants and solvents, are the most potent
of carbon. Fossil-fuel combustion is re-
ple, now ranks among the top five con-
heat grabbers of all. A CFC molecule
sponsible for the bulk of both countries'
tributors of greenhouse gases, primarily
holds 20,000 times more heat than does
emissions.
because of its emissions of methane, a
a carbon-dioxide molecule, meaning that
But under WRI's accounting scheme,
flammable, odorless gas associated with
even the relatively small emissions of
59
Newsweek
JUN
8
1990
Keeping a
Deadly Secret
The Feds knew the
Too late: Since 1979 Udall has
mines were radioactive
crusaded to win compensation
for the families of stricken min-
ers. Union Carbide began venti-
n the '50s and '60s, at the height of the
lating some mines in the late
cold war, Raymond Joe mined uranium
'50s, but the federal govern-
to help meet the demands of the boom-
ment did not impose safety reg-
ing nuclear-weapons industry. For a total
ulations on mining companies
of 15 years the Navajo worked in the mines
until 1967. By then it was too
throughout the Southwest, at the outset
late for many of the 15,000
earning as little as 90 cents an hour. Two
were exposed to fallout from nuclear test-
men-20 percent of them Na-
years ago Joe was diagnosed with lung can-
ing, could receive $50,000. Though the
vajos-who had mined urani-
cer, a victim, he believes, of the radiation
legislation's chances look good in the Sen-
um. Udall pursued four sep-
in unventilated mine shafts. Doctors re-
ate, the White House's position is unclear.
arate suits against mining
moved part of his right lung, but the cancer
The case against the federal government
companies, winning only a
has recurred. At least 450 former uranium
small settlement in Utah. He
is damning. European studies in the '20s
miners have already died of lung cancer,
and '30s linked radioactivity in uranium
also tackled the U.S. govern-
five times the expected average. And, as
mines to lung cancer, and found that mine-
ment, but his suit was quashed
the miners and their families allege, for
shaft ventilation could reduce the threat.
in 1985 when an appellate court ruled that
nearly 20 years the U.S. government knew
In 1949 U.S. scientists discovered that can-
the federal government was protected by
the danger-and suppressed it. Says Joe,
cer could be caused by inhaling particles
sovereign immunity, which allows Wash-
57, who now lives in Shiprock, N.M., "We
produced by radon gas, a byproduct of ura-
ington to decide when it can be sued. But a
were never told that the work we did could
nium. But even after the Public Health
judge recommended that the miners turn
affect our health."
Service privately recommended ventila-
to Congress. With reparations now a pos-
About a quarter of a century-and a bat-
tion in 1952, the Atomic Energy Commis-
sibility, Udall thinks the money is small
tery of lawsuits-later, Congress seems
sion failed to pressure mine owners. "[The
consolation. "It may be that [a government]
ready to make amends. After having re-
AEC's] position was that they had no legal
apology is worth more," he says.
viewed documented testimony that the
What haunts the survivors most is the
responsibility for the mines," says Dr. Vic-
Atomic Energy Commission and the Public
tor Archer, a former PHS official. "The
image of husbands and fathers working
Health Service failed to reveal the hazards
safety of the miners sort of fell between the
long hours, eating lunch and even drinking
in uranium mines in New Mexico, Arizona,
cracks." The evidence shows the AEC be-
water from springs in the mines-totally
Utah and Colorado, the House passed the
lieved ventilators were too costly, despite
unaware of the danger. Many Navajos
Radiation Exposure Compensation Act
the fact that processed uranium sold at an
were even more out of touch; they spoke no
last week. The bill would establish a trust
average rate of $12 a pound. In 1954 alone
English and their language had no word
fund of $100 million. Families of miners
for "radioactive." "It's an unfortunate in-
the AEC bought more than 3 million
with radiation-induced illness would be eli-
pounds. The pressure to produce was so
stance of national-security interests being
gible for a lump-sum payment of $100,000,
intense, says retired miner Harry Tsosie,
placed above the health of innocent peo-
and "downwinders," certain cancer vic-
60, that the three shifts on which he worked
ple," says Elizabeth Arky, an attorney for
tims in Utah, Nevada and Arizona who
were each expected to mine 80 tons of rock a
the Navajo Nation in Washington. Medical
experts believe that the number of lung-
day. (So far, Tsosie has escaped cancer.)
cancer deaths among former uranium min-
Why did the PHS fail to speak out? It was
ers will double soon. For most of the world,
then a small agency with very little power.
the cold war is over, but in some Navajo
Also it was the McCarthy era, and anyone
communities and small mining towns in
who criticized the nuclear-war effort
the West, the body count is still climbing.
risked being branded a communist. But the
PHS may have committed a graver sin
JAMES N. BAKERWITH PETER ANNIN
in Shiprock, N.M., and MARY HAGER in Washington
than keeping silent. From 1954 to 1960 the
agency monitored the health of a test group
of 4,138 uranium miners without telling
the men why. Archer, who directed the
study, says that by 1960 the miners already
suffered high rates of lung cancer. "The
PHS used the miners as guinea pigs to
study the effects of radiation," says former
secretary of the Interior Stewart Udall, 70,
a lawyer who has filed five suits on behalf of
the miners. "Some of us have difficulty
morally distinguishing between this study
and some of the stuff the Nazi
doctors did."
60
Newsweek
JUN
18
1990
HCFCs. But last month a Saudi Arabian
firm, Alessa Industries, agreed to turn out
25,000 every year beginning in 1992-and
export 20,000 back to the United States.
ENVIRONMENT
Other breakthroughs are as close as the
nearest window. During the winter, win-
dows in the United States leak about as
Fighting the Greenhouse
much heat as is provided by the oil flowing
through the Alaskan pipeline every year.
Researchers led by Stephen Selkowitz at
the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory in Cali-
And you don't have to freeze in the dark to do it
fornia can fix that with a superwindow."
It has three layers of glazing and two coat-
ings of metal oxides that cut heat loss; the
space between the panes is filled with kryp-
O
f course you know what it will take to
estation is second only to the burning of
ton and argon gases. Result: the window
save the world from the greenhouse
fossil fuels as a source of carbon dioxide
collects more heat on a winter's day than it
effect. To cut emissions of carbon diox-
(CO2). Even without the new data, an inter-
leaks at night. Superwindows today cost
ide-the gas released when coal, gas or oil
national panel convened at the urging of
about 30 percent more than moderately
burn and the one responsible for more than
the Bush administration, and 38 other
efficient ones; even better versions are
half of the impending global warming-
countries concluded last month that global
about to leave the lab. This week Libbey
you'll have to turn down the heater in
warming will raise sea levels enough to
Owens Ford will introduce special glass
winter and break out the long johns. In
inundate the plains of Holland and Bangla-
coatings that allow sunlight to penetrate
summer, don't even think of air condition-
desh and obliterate the Maldives, among
better than it can through plain glass, pro-
ing. Chuck your 100-watt bulbs, screw in
other disasters. It called for a 60 percent
viding low-tech solar heating to a room.
40s. Trade in the dishwasher and clothes
cut in CO2 emissions. Conservation is the
And LBL is working on a "smart window"
dryer for a dish drainer and laundry line.
cheapest and fastest way to do that, at least
that changes electronically from clear,
But wait. Human nature being what it is,
until solar and wind power, which emit no
which allows sunshine in on cold days, to
scientists realize that if we depend on a
CO2, are widely available. Efficiency alone,
reflective, which diverts rays on scorchers.
penchant for sacrifice to forestall the green-
calculates Christopher Flavin of World-
Similar chameleonlike glass for car sun
house effect, we might as well start building
watch Institute, could cut global CO2 emis-
roofs can keep out enough sunshine to dras-
sea walls to hold back the waters that will
sions 3 billion tons a year by 2010, from
tically cut the need for air conditioning,
rise along with the thermostat. Surveys
today's 5.6 billion.
and should be in models next year.
show that only about one fifth of those ques-
Nations might start with that symbol of
Best bulbs: Researchers also have bright
tioned would keep their homes warmer in
energy profligacy, air conditioners. They
ideas for lighting, which accounts for al-
summer or chillier in winter to help the
use hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) as
most 25 percent of U.S. electricity use. Re-
environment. Luckily, though, conserva-
the cooling fluid, and indirectly release CO2
placing standard incandescents with the
tion 1990s style doesn't mean freezing in
when electricity to run them is generated.
best bulbs, compact fluorescents, can cut
the dark. From superwindows that leak no
HCFCs and CO2 are greenhouse gases. But
electricity use by as much as two thirds.
heat to fridges that work like giant Ther-
plug-in cooling needn't turn up the global
Last year Reno's Peppermill Hotel Casino
mos bottles, "there is a host of technological
thermostat. A model patented last year by
installed about 1,000 fluorescents, and
changes we can make that will let us keep
Albers Technologies Corp. of Arizona cools
halved its lighting bill. Although fluores-
the amenities we're used to," says Eric
air to 54 degrees Fahrenheit, dehumidifies
cents can cost 20 times as much as incan-
Hirst of Oak Ridge National Laboratory.
it and removes contaminants. It uses water,
descents, they last 10 times longer, saving
Last week the World Resources Institute
not HCFCs, and draws half the electricity of
the consumer money, and emit light indis-
announced new data that suggest the
conventional units. At $2,000 for a unit big
tinguishable from incandescents. Since
greenhouse threat is more serious than had
enough to cool a 1,500-square-foot house, it
fluorescent bulbs draw less electricity, sub-
been realized. Forty million to fifty million
costs about the same as current models. No
stituting one for an incandescent prevents
acres of tropical forests are disappearing
American makers have expressed an inter-
the emission of up to 382 pounds of CO2 that
each year, said WRI-50 percent faster
est-they don't want to fiddle with their
would otherwise be emitted from power
than earlier satellite photos showed. Defor-
product unless the government bans
plants (table). Other gizmos helped the
CONTINUED
40
CONGRESSIONAL
JUN
2
1990
CONTINUED
QUARTERLY
two treaties. signed in the mid-1970s
heads even if their explosive compo-
Zamora, Lewis and David Albright
but not vet ratified. that would ban
nents did not go off. Although the data
of the Federation of American Scien-
tests with an explosive power greater
is highly classified, some sources specu-
tists have jointly called for a five-year
than 150 thousand tons of TNT (150
lated that a nuclear blast might occur.
moratorium on production at Rocky
kilotons). President Bush and Soviet
"We're not just talking about plu-
Flats. Among other interim steps, they
President Mikhail S. Gorbachev were
tonium scatter," says Zamora of the
call for equipping Trident IIs with
due to clear the way for Senate action on
Federation of American Scientists.
much less powerful warheads from
the two treaties during their meetings
"We're talking about [nuclear] yield."
older sub-launched missiles.
May 31-June 3 by signing an addendum
In the pres
to the two treaties that tightens up the
Political Fallout
sure for resuming production of nu-
original verification provisions.
The SRAM-A safety review, con-
clear detonators at Rocky Flats, Lewis
Critics will try to prevent a rapid
ducted jointly by the Air Force and
hopes that doubts about the safety of
resumption of nuclear component pro-
Energy Department, was kicked off last
the W-88 will provoke a broader de-
duction at Rocky Flats. For the longer
November - at the Energy Depart-
bate about whether such a lethal
run. they will try to pare the size of a
ment's recommendation - after a
weapon is necessary. "People are be-
proposed new production facility there.
meeting of the Energy secretary, retired
ing forced to examine whether it's
Adm James D. Watkins. Defense Sec-
worth risking the health and safety of
First Signs of Danger
retary Dick Cheney and top military
the people who live near these facili-
The first hint of a safety problem
brass. Meanwhile. the Air Force has
ties," he says.
came in 1988, when mathematical
initiated stringent safety precautions to
Beyond the question of how soon
analyses revealed an unforeseen prob-
prevent fires on SRAM-laden bombers.
Rocky Flats resumes production, arms
lem with the W-79 warhead used in the
House Speaker Thomas S. Foley, D-
control activists also hope to restrict
Army's 8-inch nuclear artillery shells.
Wash., represents the district where
the plant's future warhead production
The warhead's high explosives could be
Fairchild Air Force Base is home to
rate. A new processing plant, intended
detonated if a shell was dropped by its
SRAM-equipped B-52s. Foley asked
to replace buildings that are contami-
handlers or struck by a stray bullet. If
nated with plutonium, could produce
such an accident occurred while the
1,000 new warheads annually, accord-
shell was loaded in a gun, some analysts
ing to Zamora. "That kind of capabil-
warned, it might conceivably result in a
"There's not much support for
ity is unreasonable," he says, particu-
nuclear blast.
The hundreds of shells deployed in
building a new warhead to
larly if the plant is less than 20 miles
upwind from Denver.
Europe and stored in U.S. depots were
attack the Soviet Union, right
Existing warheads could be modi-
quickly modified to remove that risk.
fied in a much smaller facility, the
But the episode drew high-level atten-
now. But there is support for
critics insist. A smaller facility also
tion within the Reagan and Bush ad-
building a safer warhead."
might reassure members of the Colo-
ministrations to two other previously
rado congressional delegation. who are
recognized safety problems:
-Tom Zamora, Federation
eager to see the Energy Department
Because the SRAM-A has very
of American Scientists
stick to its long-range plan to shut
powerful fuel and a warhead with sen-
down Rocky Flats in the next 20 years.
sitive high explosive components,
The prospect of new (or rede-
some have worried for years that an
signed) warheads to replace the unsafe
aircraft fire on the ground might trig-
Cheney May 24 to consider the recom-
types renews the long battle over
ger an explosion that would scatter
mendation by the three weapons lab
whether full-scale nuclear explosions
plutonium for miles. The possibility
directors to shelve the missile. Cheney's
are needed to test weapons designs.
had been underscored in 1980, when a
meeting with the directors May 26 pro-
Insisting that a full-scale test is the
B-52 loaded with SRAM-As burned at
duced no announced change of policy.
only guarantee, the Energy and De-
Grand Forks Air Force Base in North
Earlier in May, Watkins acceded
fense departments adamantly resist a
Dakota.
to a request by four members of the
comprehensive test ban or a ban on
In the late 1980s, designers of the
House Armed Services Committee,
nuclear blasts larger than from 5 kilo-
Trident II deliberately accepted two
among them Chairman Les Aspin, D-
tons to 10 kilotons.
risks. They designed the missile's W.
Wis., and senior Republican Bill Dick-
But Lewis, Albright and other arms
88 warheads with old-fashioned high
inson, Ala., for an outside review of
controllers insist that the physics of a
explosive components rather than a
the risk of an accidental nuclear det-
new warhead design can be adequately
newer explosive that is much less
onation involving Trident II war-
tested without setting off a nuclear
prone to accidental detonation. Since
heads. The House members asked for
blast. "We don't crash test cars with
the new "insensitive" explosive is
a review by three scientists who have
real people in them," Lewis contends.
heavier, it would have reduced the
extensive nuclear weapons experience
"Warhead safety problems must not be
range of the warheads.
but are not currently employed by the
used as an excuse for expanding the
Also, to squeeze as much fuel into
government.
explosive testing program."
the missile as possible and still fit it into
Aside from the safety issue, arms
Albright is less sanguine, warning
the hull of a submarine, the designers
control advocates have long been un-
that the safety problem "sets back the
located one fuel tank in the missile's
easy about Trident II. Because of the
effort to get a comprehensive test
nose, ringed by the eight warheads. Be-
missile's accuracy and the W-88 war-
ban." However, he predicts that the
cause the fuel is extremely powerful,
head's 450-kiloton punch, they argue,
episode may not harm the case for
some analysts said a tank explosion
Soviet leaders might see it as a threat
trying to ban tests above a very low
would scatter plutonium from the war-
to their land-based nuclear missiles.
threshold.
39
BusinessWeek
JUN I 8 1990
ENERGY OPTIONS
Of renewable energy sources,
solar and wind technologies
may offer the best way to provide
major, cost-competitive energy
supplies for the near term.
P. 78
ays of generating energy with-
fornia Edison. That may rise to 600
worth of solar cells each year.
W
out adding to the Earth's
megawatts-half the output of a
The U.S. Department of Energy
greenhouse burden include
large nuclear plant-as more solar
has proposed budget increases for
both renewable energy sources
farms are built.
solar thermal and photovoltaic
and nuclear power. U.S. companies
Photovoltaic systems convert sun-
research and development in 1991.
are making pioneering advances in
light to electricity directly, using
Farms of giant wind turbines, like
both. Of such essentially exhaustless
solar cells made of silicon and other
those built by U.S. Windpower in
sources as solar energy, wind power,
semiconductor materials. Because
California's Altamount Pass, could
energy from the sea, and geothermal
they eliminate the intermediate
also play a substantial role in the
power, solar and wind technologies
heating stage of solar thermal plants,
future. U.S. Windpower supplies
appear to offer the best way to pro-
they are more efficient. But the
electricity to Pacific Gas & Electric.
vide major, cost-competitive energy
materials themselves and the overall
The output of California's wind tur-
supplies for the near term.
cost are expensive.
bines in 1989-2 billion kilowatt-
In California, for example, Luz
One of the world's largest photo-
hours-was enough to power a city
Engineering Corp. has built giant
voltaic solar energy plants is Arco
the size of San Francisco. General
solar farms using the solar thermal
Solar's Carissa Plain facility near San
Electric's Space Division figures that
method of turning sunlight into
Luis Obispo, Calif. It uses silicon cells
wind power could furnish about 40%
electricity. Mirrored panels concen-
to produce 6.5 megawatts, enough
of the total U.S. electricity demand.
trate sunshine onto a synthetic fluid
to power about 2,000 homes. Other
Debates over nuclear power rage
that heats to 735 degrees F and is
companies, such as Chronar Corp. of
on. Meanwhile, nuclear engineers at
used to generate steam, which drives
Princeton, N.J., are exploring the
several companies are pressing for-
an electric turbogenerator. The system
energy potential of less expensive
ward with designs for reactors that
is backed by natural-gas heating.
forms of silicon; sometime in 1990,
are simpler, safer, and more econom-
These farms provide 275 megawatts
it expects to complete a plant capa-
ical than those now in use.
of electric power to Southern Cali-
ble of manufacturing 10 megawatts
One of these designs will actually
be embodied in two Tokyo Electric
Co. plants to be built and put in oper-
ation by 1998. The design is General
Electric's "advanced boiling water
reactor." The design being developed
by GE and, separately, by West-
inghouse Energy Systems is of a type
called "passively safe." That means the
reactor could cool itself in the event
of an accident for up to 72 hours.
Still more radical designs are
being investigated. The Argonne
National Laboratory and GE are col-
laborating on a reactor cooled in a
bath of molten sodium. General
Atomics in San Diego and a utility
consortium called Gas Cooled
Reactor Associates, with support
from the Electric Power Research
Institute, Palo Alto, Calif., are
working on a reactor powered by an
ultrasafe type of fuel and cooled by
helium gas.
42
CONTINUED
Newsweek
JUN
8
1990
Natural Resources Defense Council cut its
office energy bill by more than half: occu-
pancy sensors use infrared or ultrasonic
signals to detect motion, turning lights off
when no one is in the room. Because of such
savings, Amory Lovins of the Rocky Moun-
tain Institute says, "this is not a free lunch.
This is a lunch you are paid to eat."
Even refrigerators can help stave off the
greenhouse. In today's models, a single unit
lowers temperatures in the freezer and
moves chilled air to the fridge-which
doesn't need to be as cold. At Oak Ridge
researchers think that using different
mixes of coolants and separate cooling loops
could offer energy savings of an additional
20 percent. And by replacing the CFC insu-
lation with vacuum insulation as in a Ther-
mos, refrigerators wouldn't need CFCs.
Electric utilities have led the charge
toward energy efficiency partly from envi-
ronmental concern, but largely because of
the bottom line: it costs 30 to 50 percent less
Energy: Just Say No
to cut demand for power than to build new
generating capacity. Wisconsin Power Co.
U
sing energy more efficiently, whether
offers rebates for installing efficient refrig-
you're driving or keeping a six-pack frosty,
erators; Southern California Edison will
cuts emissions of CO2. It also saves money.
pay customers to install more efficient win-
ITEM
EXTRA COST
TIME TO
CARBON
dows. New England Electric offers rebates
AT PURCHASE
PAY BACK
SAVED
to lighting dealers so they will lower the
Refrigerator
$30
1.5 yrs.
180 lbs.
price of fluorescents; it has also insulated
more than 100,000 customers' hot-water
Car
$500
3 yrs.
800 lbs.
tanks for free. CEO John Rowe says, "Con-
One fluorescent
servation is the heart of our environmental
lightbulb
$7
1 yr.
223 lbs.
strategy." But, only 10 states let utilities
earn a return on investments in efficiency,
SOURCES HOME ENERGY; RICHARD HEEDE, ROCKY MT. INSTITUTE
hampering widespread adoption.
In the cold: For next year the administra-
tion is requesting $213 million for the
Department of Energy's conservation re-
search, which now receives $411 million.
The White House questions whether the
United States will suffer from global
warming, and therefore opposes making
possibly expensive changes to control the
greenhouse. But in a significant break with
this wait-and-see policy, Prime Minister
Margaret Thatcher last month announced
that Britain would cut CO2 growth 20 per-
cent by 2005, stabilizing it at 1990 levels,
if other nations follow suit. How? Heavy
reliance on energy efficiency is a likely
option. "You can cut carbon emissions 20,
30 percent without any economic cost,"
says Michael Grubb of the Royal Institute
for Economic Affairs. Bringing all homes
up to the latest standards for insulation, for
example, would cut emissions nearly 9 per-
cent, estimates Stewart Boyle of Britain's
Association for the Conservation of Ener-
gy. This week the West German cabinet is
expected to consider a proposal to cut car-
bon emissions 30 percent by 2010. Increas-
ingly, as the world grapples with the uncer-
tain threat of the greenhouse, the United
States is being left out in the cold.
SHARON BEGLEY with DANIEL PEDERSEN
in London
41
APR 17 1990
THE CHRISTIAN CIENCE MONITOR
Search for Answers to
Climate Warming Heats Up
By Simson L. Garfinkel
Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor
where they contribute to global
warming and break down the ozone
probably cost three to five times as
BOSTON
P.10
layer that shields the surface of the
much. That cost will be especially dif-
Earth from the sun's deadly ultra-
ficult for developing countries - the
HEN the Du Pont Company
W
announced it was shutting
violet radiation. "When they stop be-
countries now seeking to buy or build
down its plants that make
coming a greenhouse problem, they
Du Pont's cheaper CFC technology.
start becoming an ozone problem,"
Scientists say the problems and is-
ozone-destroying chloroflurocarbons
says Donald Blake, a postdoctoral re-
sues raised by the ozone layer are just
(CFCs), countries around the world
search assistant in Rowland's labora-
a taste of what awaits the world on an
started calling, asking to buy them.
"Since we announced this total
tory.
even larger climatological problem:
phaseout of CFCs, we have had num-
Sixteen years ago, Rowland and
global warming.
ber of inquires from developing coun-
Mario Molina published an article in
tries that account for 60 to 70 percent
the journal Nature, hypothesizing
The global greenhouse
of the world's population to buy our
that CFCs might damage ozone in the
The Earth's atmosphere acts like
upper atmosphere. Although Row-
the glass in a greenhouse. Visible light
plants or to buy CFC technology,"
says Leo E. Manzer, a research man-
land and Dr. Molina lacked proof of
from the sun passes through the at-
ager at Du Pont, the world's largest
actual ozone destruction, their argu-
mosphere and heats the Earth's sur-
producer of CFCs.
ment was convincing enough that the
face. But trace gases in the atmos-
United States, Canada, Sweden, and
phere, mostly carbon dioxide and
Du Pont refused to sell the plants,
Norway banned the use of CFCs in
water vapor, trap infrared radiation
giving as its reason that CFCs made in
developing countries are as bad for
most aerosol-spray cans.
emitted from the surface and keep it
the Earth's ozone shield as CFCs
In 1985, Dr. John Farman, a scien-
from being reflected back into space.
made in the United States.
tist for the British Survey, published a
"If we had no atmosphere, the
paper in Nature that said the ozone
temperature of the Earth would be
The Du Pont action followed an in-
ternational agreement three years
over the Halley Bay Station had been
around 0 degrees F.," says Blake. "Be-
decreasing since 1957. Two years
cause of carbon dioxide, water vapor,
ago, when 23 industrialized countries
later, a modified U-2 spy plane flying
and ozone, we have an average tem-
gathered in Montreal and promised
to cut their production of CFCs by the
over the Antarctic confirmed the
perature of about 60 degrees F."
year 1999. "Five [CFC] plants have
ozone hole. Experiments proved that
Those trace gases have been stead-
chlorine released by CFCs was the cul-
ily increasing since the Industrial Rev-
started up since the treaty was signed
prit.
olution began in the 18th century.
in 1987," Dr. Manzer says.
Companies like Du Pont are now
Carbon dioxide (CO2) is on the rise
In his laboratory at the University
of California at Irvine, F. Sherwood
hurriedly searching for ways of mak-
thanks to the burning of coal, oil, and
ing CFC alternatives. But with $135
natural gas. Methane, another green-
Rowland, an atmospheric chemist, an-
alyzes samples of air from all over the
billion of equipment that uses CFCs in
house gas, is on the rise because of in-
the United States alone, Manzer says,
creased agriculture. For developing
world. He has found industrial chem-
icals like CFC-113, used almost exclu-
replacements must match the physical
countries, limits on greenhouse gas
sively in the electronics industry, in
properties of the CFCs closely. If a re-
places as remote as Barrow, Alaska.
placement gas expands more when
"There is no place in the world that
heated than does CFC-12, commonly
people live that is free of this pollu-
used in automobile air conditioners, it
tion," Dr. Rowland says.
might blow pressure-relief valves in
Unlike smog or radiation, CFCs do
cars on a hot day, he says.
not pose a direct threat to human
A second problem with the alterna-
health. The chemicals, which are used
tives is their price: Because the substi-
as propellents in aerosol-spray cans,
tute chemicals require three or four
steps to manufacture, instead of the
CONTINUED
to blow foam, and in refrigerators,
eventually escape into the atmosphere
single step for most CFCs, they will
29
APR 7 1990
CONTINUED
THE CHRISTIAN CIENCE MONITOR
production - essentially bans on de-
an understanding that is rooted in the
"You hear a lot of people say, 'I'm
velopment - might be even more un-
physics of the phonemena," Dr. Em-
not sure that the greenhouse effect is
acceptable than limits on CFCs.
manuel says. Even detailed under-
real.' It is very real, in that there are
A hundred years ago, the con-
standings of the convection of air or
driving forces: We can't change the
centration of CO2 in the Earth's
the circulation of the oceans remain
concentration of these gases in the at-
atmosphere was roughly 280 parts
beyond the grasp of climatologists.
mosphere without having a conse-
per million (ppm). Today, carbon
That understanding is vital, Em-
quence on the climate," he says. "The
dioxide is at 340 ppm and rising.
manuel says, because "water vapor is
fact that we can't predict what that cli-
In 1896, the Swedish chemist
a much more important greenhouse
mate is going to be doesn't mean that
Svante Arrhenius predicted that dou-
gas than CO2." Like carbon dioxide,
it won't happen. We can't predict
bling the amount of carbon dioxide
water vapor traps in the heat from the
earthquakes, but we know that they
would eventually lead to a 9 degree
ground, but "there is a lot more of it."
happen."
increase in the Earth's temperature.
Clouds move water around the
One of the most important devel-
Most of today's computer-based
globe. Since they can't be modeled di-
opments in recent years has been the
climatological models forecast a 4 to 9
rectly, their effects must be inferred
political agreement to cut the use of
degree increase in global tempera-
from other variables - which is where
CFCs, Stone says: "If nothing were
ture, "depending on how you repre-
Kerry and other scientists say that the
done about CFCs, they would become
sent the clouds," Peter Stone says, an
models get shaky.
the worst part of the warming prob-
atmospheric scientist at the Massachu-
"There may be powerful negative
lem in 20 years time."
setts Institute of Technology (MIT) in
feedback so strong that the amount of
"The laws that were passed in the
Cambridge, Mass.
extra warmth is so small [as not to
US and other countries [in the 1970s]
Although some scientists say it may
matter]," he says. "If you increase the
did have a beneficial effect. The
be years before increased greenhouse
amount of clouds by just a few per-
[warming] effect in recent years has
gases affect the Earth's temperature,
cent, you could offset the warming.
not been as bad as it would have been
the planet does seem to be getting
Clouds reflect sun back to space:
if those laws had not been passed."
warmer already. According to James
They're white."
That's because each CFC molecule
Hansen, director of the NASA-God-
Nevertheless, many scientists say
traps more than a thousand times as
dard Institute for Space Studies in
the possibility for global warming
much heat as each molecule of carbon
New York, 1988 "tied with 1981 as
should be reckoned with now. "The
dioxide.
the warmest year on our record." The
numbers, to me, are worrisome, even
One pressing problem, Stone says,
global average temperature for those
given all of the uncertainties in the
is a shortage of scientists in the field of
two years was 0.63 degrees F. above
models," MIT's Dr. Stone says.
meteorology, a field that has perhaps
the world's average between 1950 and'
"One of the things that we really
fewer than 2,000 people engaged in
1980. Last year "was warm, but it was
need to do is to improve our under-
research. "A lot of this money that
not as warm as the previous year
standing of some of these processes
they are talking [about] spending in
I think it was the sixth or seventh."
that are important," he says. "That re-
[NASA's proposed] Earth Observa-
Last year would have been
quires getting lots of data."
tion System will gather data, but we
warmer, Dr. Hansen says, except for
For example, Stone says, detailed
don't have the manpower to make use
a "periodic up-swelling of cold water
measurements have to be made to de-
of it. So we are going to need money
in the eastern Pacific," called the El
termine the temperature of the ocean
for increasing the supply of scientists
Niño, that has been keeping tempera-
at different depths. One proposed ex-
working on these problems."
ture in that ocean cool. "As we come
periment involves conducting under-
out of that cool phase, we are going to
water detonations and measuring the
get hotter temperatures in the next
time it takes for the sound to travel to
year or two which may rival or exceed
different parts of the world: Because
the hottest years in the 1980s."
cold water is denser than warm water,
But predicting the actual amount
sound travels slower through it.
of warming- and how soon it will take
"This would be very valuable to tell
place is difficult, says Kerry Emman-
us if we are getting a true global
uel, chairman of MIT's Department
warming, and to tell us how rapidly it
of Earth and Planetary Sciences and a
is coming about. The faster [the heat]
critic of many global climate models.
penetrates into the deep oceans, the
longer it will take" to warm up the
Models of Earth's climate
surface, Stone says. "It is an important
Scientists lack a comprehensive
difference if we get a rise in 10 years
theory, or "analytic understanding,"
or in a hundred, and that is the kind
of how the Earth's climate actually
of uncertainty there is."
works. "One would hope that we
But few scientists doubt that a
would at least have an analytic under-
warming is coming. "The fact that the
standing of some of the subprocesses,
atmosphere is changing, that much is
certain," Rowland says. "Carbon
dioxide is going up. Methane is going
CONTINUED
up. Those [trends] aren't questioned
any more."
30
BusinessWeek
JUN 1990
Putting Cleanup First:
The National Environmental
Trust Fund Proposal
by M.R. Greenberg
Chairman, American International Group, Inc.
p.67
Alarmed by the poisoning of our
an equivalent amount for self-insurance
environment at Love Canal and other
would provide about $40 billion over the
toxic waste sites, Congress created the
next decade-more than enough to clean
Superfund program in 1980. Superfund
up the 1,200 highest priority sites. We
was intended to clean up the most
have suggested that funds be collected by
serious abandoned and uncontrolled haz-
insurers and remitted to the Trust Fund
ardous waste disposal sites in the United
for use by the EPA in cleanup activities.
States and to respond to hazardous waste
Adopting this approach would eliminate
emergencies.
the need to establish liability site by site
More than a decade later, billions of
among various parties. It would take the
dollars have been spent under Superfund,
action out of the courtroom and move it
but relatively few sites have actually
to the hazardous waste sites. It would let
been cleaned up. At the same time, the
us get on with the job of cleaning up the
number of identified Superfund sites has
environment, as Superfund originally
grown significantly to over 1,200 and the
intended.
average site cleanup cost has risen to
It is important to point out that the
more than $25 million.
gridlock. Massive amounts of money have
AIG proposal would not do away with the
A major problem is Superfund's fund-
been spent in the courtrooms attempting to
one real success of Superfund, namely its
ing approach, which forces the Environ-
assess and shift liability. Meanwhile,
effectiveness in providing an incentive for
mental Protection Agency (EPA) to raise
cleanup has been delayed and transaction
industry to reduce waste and handle the
the cleanup funds site by site from par-
costs have soared.
waste it does generate with extreme care.
ties who sent waste to the site. This sys-
We must develop a better approach to
All it would do is replace the retroactive
tem, based on the principle of strict
solving this critical national problem.
liability system of Superfund with
retroactive liability, means that com-
Superfund's goal of cleaning up the
respect to old waste sites. Without a solu-
panies are being held responsible today
environment is being thwarted by its pro-
tion like the National Environmental
for waste disposal practices that occurred
tracted, litigious system of assessing lia-
Trust Fund, our businesses and commu-
20 or 30 years ago and which may not
bility. In an attempt to resolve this costly
nities will stagger under the burden of
have been illegal or irresponsible at the
gridlock, American International Group
establishing liability for cleanup. It's
time.
(AIG) has proposed creating the National
time to break the Superfund gridlock and
In addition, under Superfund liability,
Environmental Trust Fund. This Fund's
put cleanup first.
anyone and everyone who sent hazardous
resources would be devoted exclusively to
wastes to a site is potentially liable for the
cleaning up those old hazardous waste
AIG is the leading U.S.-based interna-
total cost of cleanup. This extends not only
sites. It could be financed by adding a
tional insurance organization and the
to operators of disposal sites, but also to
separate fee to commercial and industrial
nation's largest underwriter of commer-
generators and transporters of the waste,
insurance premiums now paid in the
cial and industrial coverages. Its mem-
and even to current owners of sites where
United States, with a method of payment
ber companies write property, casualty,
waste disposal has ceased. This system pits
to be determined for those businesses
marine, life and financial services insur-
EPA, companies, insurers, local gov-
that self-insure.
ance in over 130 countries and jurisdic-
ernments and individuals against each
By our estimates, even a modest
tions, and are increasingly engaged in a
other/creating an unparalleled litigation
assessment of 2 percent of premiums and
range of other financial services.
52
BusinessWeek
JUN 18 1990
INNOVATIVE APPROACHES
THE JOHNNY APPLESEED
the plant equals 52 million trees.
SAFE SPRAY
UTILITY
P.66
The U.S. Agency for International
The potent greenhouse gases called
Planting trees as a means of increas-
Development, the Peace Corps,
CFCs have been evicted from many
ing the absorption of carbon dioxide
CARE, and the Guatemalan govern-
of the aerosol spray containers they
from the atmosphere can't be ex-
ment are treefully supporting the
used to inhabit. But the propellants
pected to have the same impact in
project.
that mostly replaced them-hydro-
curbing global warming as salvaging
carbons such as propane and butane-
huge tracts of forest. Still, every tree
"NO GOLF CART"
are also atmospheric pollutants.
helps. Tree-planting programs have
The electric car has had a checkered
Now Exxel Container Inc. has
begun in many cities around the
past, promoted mostly by small
designed a spray can that contains
country. Last year, The American
companies for very limited uses. But
no propellant at all, but doesn't need
Forestry Association initiated a
in January, General Motors intro-
to be pumped. A rubber bladder
"Global Releaf' program that calls
duced a prototype electric car called
expands like a balloon when the can
for the planting of 100 million trees
the Impact, claimed it was the most
is filled, then contracts to expel the
in urban areas. And President Bush
advanced yet designed, and said that
contents in a spray.
has called for planting a billion trees
it could be on the market within
The new container is already
across the United States.
five years.
being used in hair sprays and aerosol
Now an energy company has
"This is no golf cart," said GM
sun-block products.
come up with a fresh idea: a tree-
chairman Roger B. Smith. The
for-electricity swap. Applied Energy
sleek, two-door passenger car has a
CLEAN PIPES
Services of Arlington, Va., announced
range of 120 miles on a charge of its
Cleaning up deposits that form in
last year that it would contribute
lead-acid batteries. That would
pipes usually requires chemicals,
$2 million toward the planting of
make it a reasonable second car or
creating the potential for environ-
enough trees in Guatemala to absorb
commuter car for many families.
mental problems. But Environ Tech-
the equivalent of the 15.5 million
An electric car, of course, emits no
nologies Corp. of Newport Beach,
tons of carbon dioxide that will
gases of any kind.
Calif., has developed a nonchemical
be emitted over 40 years by its new
approach based on conditioning
180-megawatt coal-fired electric
water magnetically so that it doesn't
plant in Uncasville, Conn.
form deposits. The result stops
By this imaginative
buildup and corrosion, saves energy,
arithmetic,
and doesn't contribute to
water pollution.
51
BusinessWeek
CONTINUED
JUN 18 1990
Rowland and Molina found that the
very inertness of CFCs made them
OCTOBER 5, 1989
destructive to the ozone layer. Released
into the atmosphere, CFCs remain
intact, floating slowly upward. As they
reach the edge of the atmosphere, a
small percentage of CFC molecules are
broken apart by solar radiation, releas-
ing chlorine atoms. These combine
voraciously with ozone, destroying it at
300
HOS
an incredibly rapid rate. As the ozone
350
layer thins, more ultraviolet radiation
reaches the Earth's surface. The human
consequences include more skin cancer
and more cataracts-both directly
related to ultraviolet exposure-as well
as crop damage. A degraded ozone layer
may even constitute a threat to the
entire ocean ecosystem: Ultraviolet
radiation appears to be especially harm-
SOUTH POLAR PLOT
ful to phytoplankton, the one-celled
Satellite plot of the Antarctic ozone hole, showing ozone depletion over 10 million
organisms at the base of the marine
square miles-encompassing areas over New Zealand and southern Australia.
food chain.
became the first company to announce plans for a
Recent studies have shown that the size of the
CFC-free manufacturing environment. IBM has
Antarctic ozone hole apparently is increasing, cov-
pledged to end CFC emissions from all its manufac-
ering 10 million square miles in 1989 and some-
turing facilities by the end of 1993; it reduced CFC
times reaching inhabited regions of New Zealand
emissions from its plant in San Jose, Calif., by 50%
and southern Australia. Discovery of the Antarctic
in 1988. NCR, another major computer company,
ozone hole was one of the factors that in
has established in-house CFC recy-
1987 led 35 nations to sign an unprece-
"AT&T takes its envi-
cling plants at facilities in San Diego,
dented international agreement, the
Minneapolis, and Columbia, S.C.,
Montreal Protocol. These nations
ronmental responsi-
replacing CFCs with water-based pro-
pledged, among other things, to halve
bility seriously.
cesses in several instances.
most CFC emissions by 1998. Shortly
Toxic waste and
Meanwhile, CFC manufacturers,
afterward, Du Pont, the major producer
toxic emissions are
including Du Pont and Allied-Signal,
of CFCs in the United States, reiterated
a corporate pledge made in the 1970s to
an indictment of the
have begun to develop and manufac-
ture replacement chemicals that will
phase out CFC production before the
quality process. We
not damage the ozone. This major
end of the century. Other manufacturers
want to prevent
effort will cost Du Pont alone $1 bil-
and users of CFCs have also been spurred
them at the source."
lion, the company estimates. One
into action.
approach is to use replacements that
Take the electronics industry: It
Robert E. Allen, CEO, AT&T
do not contain chlorine; another is to
accounts for 12% of CFC use in the
develop substitutes that break down
United States. In January 1988, AT&T
in the lower atmosphere.
CONTINUED
47
BusinessWeek
JUN
8 1990
CONTINUED
But CFCs are not the only threat to the ozone
well. Air pollution is arguably a more difficult prob-
layer. Another problem is halons, which contain
lem than ozone depletion because it is a complex
bromine atoms that destroy ozone with even greater
set of problems that require different approaches,
efficiency than does chlorine. Halons are widely
says Richard Ayres, chairman of the National Clean
used in fire extinguishers, especially in facilities
Air Coalition. "We believe that the declining air
where water cannot be used to fight fires. Studies
quality in our cities can fairly be characterized as a
show, however, that most halon emissions occur not
public health crisis."
during fires but when systems are tested; alterna-
There is the problem of urban air pollution, which
tive chemicals and testing methods could cut dis-
in many cities has become a clear health hazard.
charges by two-thirds.
Some 150 million Americans live in urban areas
where, on certain days, the air has been declared
NO EASY ANSWERS
unfit to breathe by the Environmental Protection
The salvation of the ozone layer and cleansing of
Agency. More than half the American population
our air have one thing in common: Both require
lives in counties where ozone levels exceed the
unprecedented cooperation across state lines in
EPA's health safety standard at least once each year.
America and across international boundaries as
Internationally, the World Health Organization
estimates that 70% of the global urban population
Annual Greenhouse Heating Increase
breathes air that contains unhealthy levels of sus-
pended particles at least some of the time, and that
Billion tons of carbon equivalents
27 of 54 cities with available data on sulfur dioxide
were near or over the recommended health standard
7
for this pollutant.
Polluted air endangers other living species, too,
in the form of acid compounds that fall from the
6
sky. Sulfur dioxides, nitrogen oxides, and other
acidic compounds are emitted by automobiles, power
5
plants, and other fossil-fuel-burning facilities.
These pollutants drift with the prevailing winds,
descending in snow, rain, and mist on forests and
4
lakes. The change in acidity may sicken trees and
kills fish and other inhabitants of freshwater lakes.
A 1984 survey in the United States found more
3
than 500 strongly acidic lakes; a Canadian survey
revealed that 50,000 lakes in that country were
dead. In Europe, the share of forests showing dam-
age attributable in part to acid deposition increased
from 8% in 1982 to 52% in 1988. A total of 125
million acres, more than a third of Europe's forests,
have been blighted by acidic pollutants.
Damage to other valued resources is also great.
Many cultural monuments in ancient cities are
Methane
Carbon Dioxide
Chlorofluorocarbons
being eaten away by polluted air. Natural vistas are
Source: World Resources 1990-91
being obscured: Witness the persistent, sulfuric
Driven by rising emission rates for gases, the potential for
greenhouse heating of the atmosphere is increasing rapidly.
haze that often shrouds the view of the Grand Canyon.
CONTINUED
48
BusinessWeek
JUN 18 1990
CONTINUED
The ravages of pollution are most evi-
out that there are limits to what can
dent in popular historic places visited by
be done. "Can we reduce emissions to
millions of tourists. The great buildings
lower levels? Maybe. But it's not pos-
of Athens are said to have suffered more
sible to go to zero."
deterioration in the past quarter-century
It's much the same story with pollu-
than in the previous 2,400 years. The
tion from fixed sources, such as gener-
Taj Mahal is endangered by polluted air,
ating plants and factories. Technological
as are the monuments erected to the
advances in pollution control have
Civil War soldiers who fought at
been impressive. Much of the visible
Gettysburg, Pa. Even the remote Mayan
smoke that U.S. factories once belched
temples in the Yucatan peninsula are
into the air has disappeared. But other
being destroyed by chemical reactions
emissions-including sulfur dioxides
between acidic pollutants and stone.
and nitrogen oxides-have proven
The sources of the pollutants are many.
tougher to control, due in part to
Automobiles emit carbon monoxide, nitrogen
social and political factors. Elimination
oxides, and hydrocarbons, which generate ozone by
of high-sulfur coal would put thousands
a complex set of photochemical reactions induced
of Appalachian miners out of work, for
by solar energy. Pollutants emitted by coal- and oil-
example, and scrubbers used to clean up
burning power plants and factories include part-
sulfur emissions from power plants are
iculates, sulfur dioxides, and nitrogen
expensive.
oxides. Hundreds of potentially toxic
chemicals used in industrial and com-
"CLEAN COAL"
mercial processes are released from
One emphasis on pollution control from
thousands of factories and workplaces.
fixed sources is on "clean coal" technol-
In Mexico City, one of the most pol-
ogy. Globally, coal is much more abun-
luted cities in the world, headaches,
dant than oil. Coal looms increasingly
drowsiness, burning eyes, skin rashes,
important because the United States has
and other illnesses linked to air pollu-
an indigenous supply sufficient for cen-
tion are common.
turies (as do China and the Soviet
The United States took the lead in
Union), while a growing percentage of
air pollution control, starting with the
our petroleum products must be
Clean Air Act in 1970. Among other
imported. Coal-burning power plants
provisions, the act required use of cat-
already provide half our electricity, and
alytic converters on all new automobiles. The
use of electricity is growing faster than
newest generation of converters reduces hydrocarbon
consumption of other forms of energy. If
and carbon monoxide emissions by more than 90%,
present trends continue, coal will sur-
and nitrogen oxides by more than 75%. An added
pass petroleum as the primary fuel in
benefit of converters is that they require unleaded
many countries within 20 years; coal
gasoline; recent evidence that even
production could triple by the middle of
small amounts of lead in the blood can
the 21st century.
diminish intellectual performance
But all coal contains some sulfur.
prompted the phaseout of leaded fuel
When coal is burned, sulfur dioxide is
in most industrial countries. However,
produced. Many areas now forbid use of
the demand for even stricter emission
high-sulfur fuel. As a result, a number of
controls has grown because these gains
methods are being used to reduce these
have been largely offset by an increase
in the number of autos and miles
driven. But Gordon Rinschler, a
Chrysler executive engineer, points
CONTINUED
49
BusinessWeek
JUN 8 1990
CONTINUED
emissions. Some sulfur can be removed from coal by
Ultimately, the issues are social and political as
washing prior to burning. But most industries
much as technological. How clean do we as a nation
have relied on scrubbers, which remove sulfur diox-
or planet want our air to be, and how much are we
ide from the gas as it travels up the smokestack.
willing to pay to achieve that goal? Virtually every-
Scrubbers can be up to 95% effective, but they use
one is in favor of cleaner air. Yet nearly 20 years
large amounts of water and produce a kind of
after passage of the first Clean Air Act, almost half
sludge that requires special disposal. And scrubbers
the U.S. population is exposed to unhealthy air,
are not used in every plant. Indeed, only 40% of
acid rain continues to degrade our lakes and forests,
U.S. coal-burning power plants are equipped with
and more than 2.5 billion pounds of toxic chemi-
these devices. The cost of retrofitting scrubbers to
cals are pumped into the atmosphere by U.S. com-
older plants is estimated at $12 billion or more
panies every year.
Nitrogen oxides are a nastier problem, because
There are increasing signs, however, that our
they are inherent in combustion. There are tech-
resolve is making a comeback. A new Clean Air Act,
nologies that modify the combustion process to
proposed by the Bush Administration, is wending
reduce nitrogen oxide emissions, but the technique
its way through Congress and seems certain of
is at best 50% effective.
passage in some form. It will require reductions in
Nonetheless, utilities and other large users of
emissions of pollutants that cause acid rain and
coal can point to some impressive advances. Nitro-
contribute to urban smog. In
gen oxide emissions, which rose steadily in the
California, even more stringent
United States until 1977, have been decreasing
emission limits are being proposed
slowly for more than a decade. And while U.S. util-
for virtually all sources of air pollu-
ities increased coal consumption by 76% between
tion. Individual companies are
1973 and 1986, sulfur dioxide emissions from these
already sharply cutting toxic emis-
plants decreased 18% over the same period. A con-
sions and recapturing or phasing out
tinuing decrease in sulfur dioxide emissions is
use of CFCs. The oil industry is
expected over the next three decades, as new power
introducing less-polluting formula-
stations with advanced pollution-control systems
tions of gasoline, and the utility
replace aging facilities.
industry is on the verge of bringing
new, more efficient, and less-pollut-
CONFLICTING DESIRES
ing energy technology on-line.
But the successes of the past are not the demands of
In the end, a change in the air
the future. Our society has an unslaked thirst for
will come only with a change in
energy; it also has an increasingly urgent desire for
attitudes. The air is the ultimate
cleaner air. Given those conflicting desires, technol-
global commons-mixed and
ogy must move ever faster to meet society's needs.
moved around the globe by the
Specific technologies for cleaner energy produc-
winds; shared by all living things;
tion are being tested with all due speed. One new
used and reused for many different
technology that promises to reduce emissions of
purposes. It not only sustains life
both sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide is fluidized-
but, in the ozone layer, shelters it
bed combustion. Another promising technology
from the harsh ultraviolet rays of the
uses gas from coal to run an electricity-generating
sun and buffers the Earth from ex-
turbine, with a second turbine powered by excess
tremes of hot and cold. The air must
heat that would otherwise go to waste.
increasingly be seen as a common
resource, not a common sewer.
50
BusinessWeek
JUN 18 1990
AIR
THE GLOBAL
COMMONS
"Because life as we know it would not have
miles above the South Pole, in a region where the
air thins to a near-vacuum, chemical reactions that
developed on Earth without an ozone layer,
originate with man-made compounds remove a
the continuing manufacture of substances
vital protective component of the atmosphere.
that destroy it is highly alarming."
All these phenomena are the results of apparently
minor changes in the air caused by human activity.
SHERWOOD ROWLAND. UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, IRVINE
The chemicals added to the atmosphere are mea-
sured in parts per million-and in some cases, parts
P.35
per billion. Yet they are concentrated enough to
he Antarctic ozone hole is perhaps the most
cause crises, not only on a local level, as in the case
T
prominent example of how human activities
of Los Angeles smog, but also over vast areas, such
can cause sudden, major deterioration in the
as the forests and lakes that cover major regions of
environment. Moreover, although scientists
Europe and North America. And in the case of the
had warned that the industrial chemicals
upper atmosphere, whose ozone layer is being eaten
known as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) might
away, the problem threatens the whole planet.
damage Earth's protective ozone layer, they did not
The realization that human activity has put the
foresee the Antarctic hole-it was completely unex-
ozone layer in peril has spurred the industrial nations
pected. And the degradation of the ozone layer will
and major corporations to take urgent measures.
increase, since the existing hole was caused by gases
released before 1980. CFCs now rising through the
THE CFC FACTOR
lower atmosphere will take seven to 10 years to
The first ozone warning was sounded in 1973 by
reach the stratosphere, where they will remain for
Sherwood Rowland and Mario Molina, two chemists
as long as 100 years.
at the University of California at Irvine.
The ozone hole is not the only sign of
They were studying the fate of
environmental degradation in the thin
chlorofluorocarbons, or CFCs, a family
layer of gases that makes life on Earth
of chemicals whose properties had made
possible. The signs and symptoms are
them essential in a number of indus-
evident everywhere.
tries, from refrigeration to aerosol spray
In the Adirondack Mountains of New
cans to plastics and semiconductor pro-
York, a lake is eerily still and beautiful,
duction. Introduced by Du Pont in
made sterile by acid rain. In Florence, the
1935 under the trade name Freon, CFCs
nose of a Renaissance bust is pockmarked
quickly replaced such toxic gases as
and eaten away by corrosive gases in the
ammonia in refrigerators and air condi-
urban air. In the Black Forest of Germany,
tioners; later, they were widely adopted
the needles of millions of silver fir trees
as blowing agents for production of
are yellowed and stunted. In the Grand
insulated foams and as cleaning solvents
Canyon, a subtle, sulfur-laden haze
for electronic equipment. By the mid-
diminishes the glory of endless vistas. In
1980s, U.S. companies were making
Los Angeles, many people stay indoors on
$750 million worth of CFCs to produce
a day when lungs sting and eyes tear. And
$135 billion worth of end products.
CONTINUED
46
BusinessWeek
JUN 18 1990
ALTERNATIVE FUELS
P.50
oday's new auto emits 96% less
T
such as the Marathon unit of USX,
amounts of formaldehyde, a suspected
carbon monoxide, 96% less
Exxon, and Shell are following suit.
hydrocarbons, and 76% less
The process removes polluting gaso-
Natural gas. It's already being used
nitrogen oxides than a compa-
line components such as butane,
in 20,000 Canadian vehicles and in
rable 1967 model. But Americans
olefins, and aromatics and adds a
some sizable U.S. fleets: Mountain
drive half again as many miles now
compound called methyl tertiary
Fuel Supply Co. of Salt Lake City
as they did then, and more of those
butyl ether (MTBE), which
has 105 vehicles running on natural
miles are in stop-and-go traffic,
improves combustion efficiency,
gas and the Northern Indiana Public
which maximizes pollution. Strict
reducing carbon monoxide by 9%,
Service Co. uses 75% natural gas in
new emission laws for autos have
hydrocarbons by 4%, and nitrogen
its 740-vehicle fleet. United Parcel
spurred a drive for alternative,
oxides by 5%. Its big advantage is
Service is testing natural gas in 10
cleaner-burning fuels. The three
that existing autos wouldn't have to
trucks in New York for possible
U.S. domestic car manufacturers and
be modified to use it.
nationwide use. Use of natural gas
14 petroleum companies have
Alcohol-either methanol from
reduces nitrogen oxides by 25%,
started a joint research and testing
coal and natural gas or ethanol from
hydrocarbons by 13% compared with
program on alternative fuels, and
corn or other crops. The state of
gasoline, and costs substantially less.
individual corporations have begun
California is buying 5,000 cars that
But it requires bulky tanks to hold
efforts of their own. The leading
can burn either methanol or gasoline
sufficient fuel for adequate range
contenders:
from General Motors and Ford for
and the cost of conversion is $2,500
Reformulated gasoline. Arco was
testing. Methanol-powered cars have
per vehicle.
first on the market with its Emission
greatly reduced emissions of pollu-
Propane. It's the most widely
Control-1, now being sold in south-
tants that lead to formation of
used alternative fuel, with 350,000
ern California. Other companies,
ozone, but they release measurable
propane-burning vehicles in the
United States and 3.5 million world-
wide. Propane engines not only last
two to three times longer than gaso-
line engines but also have substan-
tially cleaner exhaust emissions.
Phillips 66 Natural Gas Co. is con-
verting 31 fleet vehicles to propane
in a two-year evaluation program
and is marketing it as a fleet motor
fuel in several cities.
45
MAY 26 1990
The New York Times
Scientists Warn of Dangers in a Warming
By CRAIG R. WHITNEY
Special to The New York Times
P.6
Britain and U.S. Percentages
Earth
Britain, with 1 percent of the world's
LONDON, May 25 - panel of scien-
population, is responsible for about 3
tists warned today that unless emis-
percent of its carbon dioxide emissions,
percent in 15 years, just to get them
sions of carbon dioxide and other
Mrs. Thatcher said. The United States,
back to their 1990 leveis by the year
harmful gases were immediately cut
with 5 percent of the population, is re-
2005, would mean "significant adjust-
by more than 60 percent, global tem-
sponsible for about 25 percent of the
ments to our economies more effi-
peratures would rise sharply over the
emissions, American scientists say.
cient power stations, cars which use
next century, with unforeseeable con-
Prof. Bert Bolin, the chairman of the
less fuel, better insulated houses and
sequences for humanity.
intergovernmental panel, described
better management of energy in gen
While much of the substance of the
Mrs. Thatcher's action as "very use-
eral."
report has already been disclosed, the
ful" but said, "It is not enough in the
report had immediate political conse-
long term." If all countries did as Brit-
Cut of 60% Recommended
quences. Prime Minister Margaret
ain suggested, Dr. Houghton said, it
The working group's report is one of
Thatcher of Britain, breaking with the
would still not be enough to stop the en-
three that were commissioned in
Bush Administration's skepticism over
hanced greenhouse effect. "If you want
November 1988 by the United Nations
the need for immediate action, said to-
to stop it, you have to cut by 60 percent
Environment Program and the World
day that if other countries did their
immediately," he said at a news con-
Meteorological Organization for a
part, Britain would reduce the pro-
ference in Englefield Green, where the
global climate conference in Geneva in
working
jected growth of its carbon dioxide
working group discussed its findings
November. Another working group
emissions enough to stabilize them at
this week.
headed by the Soviet Union is consider-
graps
1990 levels by the year 2005.
She has taken a kind of halfway
ing the impact of climate changes on
West Germany's Environment
position between the aggressive moves
agriculture, forests, fisheries, water
Minister, Klaus Töpfer, has proposed
being considered by the West Germans
resources, and sea barriers, and the
that Europe should go further and cut
and the 'What, me worry?' position of
third, headed by the United States, is
present emissions by 25 percent by that
the United States," said Michael Op-
10
considering strategies for responding
time but the United States has said
penheimer, an atmospheric physicist
until now that the scientific case for
of the Environmental Defense Fund of
to climate change. Professor Bolin said
global warming - the so-called green-
today that he would not discuss the
New York City, who was in a group of
house effect - has not been made and
draft reports of either of them.
scientists Mrs. Thatcher invited a year
that no action needs to be taken.
ago to advise her on global warming.
The United Nations group's report
Mrs. Thatcher's action is a blow to
"While it's not nearly as strong as
today said that just to stabilize atmos-
the Bush Administration, which was
the West German and European view,"
pheric concentrations of carbon diox-
counting on her as its major ally in
ide, nitrous oxide and chlorofluorocar-
slowing any international action to re-
he said in a telephone interview, "it
duce the industrial pollution that
does represent a substantial break
bons at today's levels there would
with the United States."
have to be immediate cuts of more
causes global warming.
Called Too Little Too Late
than 60 percent in their output. Depend
The report by a working group of the
ing on how much was actually done to
United Nations Intergovernmental
British environmental groups de-
cut emissions, it said, global mean tem-
Panel on Climate Change was ap-
nounced Mrs. Thatcher's proposal as
perature would still keep rising be-
proved by all but a handful of the 90
too little, too late. "It does not even go
tween 0.1 degrees centigrade (0.18 de-
delegates from 39 countries, said Dr.
as far as the very modest first step that
grees Fahrenheit) and 0.2 degrees cen-
John T. Houghton, chairman. The re-
the European Community proposed
tigrade (0.36 degrees Fahrenheit) per
port said that if nothing at all was done,
back in March of stabilizing emissions
decade.
the global mean temperature could
at the present level by the year 2000,"
Global mean surface air tempera-
rise 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit by the end
said Andrew Dilworth, a spokesman
ture has already increased by 0.3 de-
of the 21st century.
for Friends of the Earth.
grees centigrade (0.54 Fahrenheit) to
It said that in that case, ocean water
Mrs. Thatcher, in her speech at the
0.6 degrees centigrade (1.08 degrees
would expand and ice stored at the
opening of a center for climate predic-
Fahrenheit) over the last 100 years, it
poles could melt, raising the level of the
said, with the five average warmest
sea by 25.6 inches. That would be
years all occurring in the 1980's.
enough to submerge the Maldives and
Scientists who study global climate
inundate the coastal plains of Bangla-
A scientific plea:
trends concede, however, that the com-
desh and the Netherlands, oceanogra-
puter models on which they base their
phers say.
cut pollution by
predictions are flawed. While the re-
Mr. Houghton, Britain's chief mete-
searchers can measure gases in the at-
orologist, said that only a handful of the
scientists in the panel disagreed with
60 percent,
mosphere with precision they have not
perfected methods of predicting their
the findings, which he said were dra-
effects on particular regions on earth.
matic confirmation of how rapidly the
immediately.
So far, there has been only one major
carbon dioxide, methane, chlorofluoro-
step to control greenhouse gases - the
carbons and other gases released into
major industrialized countries' pledge
the air by industrial processes, the
last year to ban production of chloro-
burning of tropical forests and other
tion and research in Bracknell, said,
fluorocarbons, used as refrigerants
CFCS)
factors had been changing the earth's
"It is no good setting political targets
and propellants, by the end of this cen-
atmosphere since the end of the 18th
for action which are just not realistic in
tury because they rise to the upper at-
century. A draft of the report was
practice." Mrs. Thatcher, who had
mosphere and destroy the ozone mole-
previously disclosed.
been briefed on the working group's
cules that block most of the sun's
findings earlier this week, said today
harmful ultraviolet radiation. The
that reducing projected increases in
developing countries will be asked to
British carbon dioxide emissions by 30
agree to a similar ban at a conference
here next month.
46
CONTINUED
The New York Times
MAY 28 1990
Iran Plans Spending on Oil
P.29
NICOSIA, Cyprus, May 27 (AP) -
budget for the current fiscal year,
Iran will direct $5 billion in hard cur-
which began March 21.
rency credits to its oil industry this
While inaugurating a methanol
year, its Oil Minister, Gholamreza
plant in southern Iran on Friday, Mr.
Aqazadeh, said.
Aqazadeh said Iran's current sustain-
Tehran radio, monitored in Nicosia,
able production capacity would be in-
quoted Mr. Aqazadeh as saying Fri-
creased to 3.7 million barrels a day in
day that the economic backing was
four months and to 4 million barrels a
made possible "with cooperation be-
day next year. Production capacity is
tween the Ministry of Economy and
currently about 3.3 million barrels.
Finance and Iran's Central Bank."
Iran's oil industry was battered in
the country's eight-year war with
Iraq, with oil and gas-related indus-
tries, which earn more than 90 per-
cent of Iran's foreign exchange, de-
prived of funds for maintenance and
development.
But Tehran began rebuilding im-
mediately after the United Nations-
sponsored cease-fire halted the con-
flict in August 1988. The credits an-
nounced Friday represent about 6
percent of the country's $80 billion
Mexico Weighs Oil Plant
P.29
MEXICO CITY, May 27 (Reuters)
- Mexico and the Japanese company
Mitsui & Company will cooperate on a
study of the need for a large new
petrochemicals complex, the state oil
company Petróleos Mexicanos said
this week. The Mexican company
said that if the study of the $354 mil-
lion complex to be built in northern
Mexico was encouraging, Mitsui
might help with financing.
45
Net Additions to the Greenhouse Heating Effect in 1987 (In Metric Tons)
(Source: World Resources 1990)
Country
Carbon Dioxide
Methane*
CFC Use*
United
States
540,000
130,000
350,000
(Combined Germany)
118,000
10,100
95,000
Japan
110,000
12,000
100,000
West
Germany
79,000
8,000
75,000
United
Kingdom
69,000
14,000
71,000
France
41,000
13,000
69,000
Italy
45,000
5,800
71,000
Canada
48,000
33,000
36,000
East Germany
39,000
21,000
20,000
*Methane and CFC use are listed by equivalent Carbon Dioxide
Heating effect.
Ranking of Countries for Greenhous Gas Net Emissions
Country
Greenhouse Index Rank
Percent of Total
Among Top 50
United States
1
17.6
USSR
2
12.0
Brazil
3
10.5
China
4
6.6
India
5
3.9
(Combined
5A
3.9
Germany)
Japan
6
3.9
West Germany
7
2.8
United Kingdom
8
2.7
France
10
2.1
Italy
11
2.1
Canada
12
2.0
East Germany
20
1.1
Contributions to Global Warming by Greenhouse Gases and Human Activity
(Source: World Resources 1990)
Sector
Carbon
Methane
Ozone
Nitrous
CFCs
% Warming
Dioxide
Oxide
by Sector
Energy
35%
4%
6%
4%
49%
Deforest-
ation
10%
4%
14%
Agricul-
ture
3%
8%
2%
13%
Industry
2%
2%
20%
24%
% Warming
by Gas
50%
16%
8%
6%
20%
Per Capita Greenhouse Gas Net Emissions, 1987
(Source: World Resources)
Country
Rank
Metric Tons Per Capita*
Lao People's
Dem Republic
1
10.0
Canada
5
4.5
United States
9
4.2
East Germany
12
3.7
United Kingdom
20
2.7
West Germany
21
2.7
France
30
2.2
Italy
35
2.1
Japan
42
1.8
*Carbon Dioxide Heating Equivalents, metric tons of carbon)
BRIEF HISTORY OF GLOBAL WARMING ISSUE
In 1978, a World Climate Conference recommended that
the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) establish
a program that considers the role of CO2 and its
possible impact on human activities.
In 1987, discussions within the General Assembly led
to requests of governing bodies of WMO and UNEP to
establish an intergovernmental mechanism to address
the science of climate change, and the potential
environmental, economic, and social impacts of
climate change. This led to the formation of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The first meeting of the IPCC took place in Geneva in
November 1988, with 35 countries, including the U.S.,
Japan, and the USSR attending.
The IPCC agreed to three working groups with the
following tasks: (1) assess available scientific
information on climate change; (2) assess
environmental and socioeconomic impacts of climate
change; and (3) formulate possible response
strategies.
This month the first working group released a summary
of the science of global warming. This summary
states that the most likely expectation is that mean
temperatures will rise by 0.3 degrees Centigrade per
decade, or 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the
next century. A report from the third working group
on response strategies is expected shortly.
In addition to the IPCC meetings, several other
international meetings on global warming have been
held. These include:
--
the Toronto conference (June 1988) on "The
Changing Atmosphere" which concluded by issuing
a statement calling for a 20 percent reduction
in CO2 emissions by the year 2005;
the Hamburg Conference (November 1988) which
called for a 30% reduction in CO2 emissions by
the year 2000;
-2-
-- the Noordvikjk Conference (November 1989) in
which the U.S. "allegedly" supported a
declaration supporting a freeze on global
warming emissions;
-- the White House Conference (April 1990)
-- the Bergen Conference (May 1990) in which the
U.S. did not agree to any specific limits.
O
In the U.S., some states are begining to take steps
to reduce emissions. For instance, in California,
the "green initiative" includes a requirement for a
20 percent reduction in CO₂ emissions.
Important Facts on Global Warming
O
Greenhouse gases, other than CO₂, are now responsible
for about half of the increase in the greenhouse
effect world wide.
O
A goal of stablizing the composition of greenhouse
gases in the atmosphere at present day levels will
require an immediate 60 percent reduction in all
emissions. (Greenhouse gases remain in the
atmosphere for decades. At current emission levels,
greenhouse gases are being released into the
atmosphere at a faster rate than they are being
removed. As a result, even if we were to freeze
emissions at current levels, the concentrations of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere would continue to
grow over the next century. See attached figure and
chart.)
O
This will be difficult, especially since world energy
consumption is expected to increase by 50 to 75
percent between 1985 and 2020, with developing
countries accounting for 75 percent of that growth.
Stabilizing emissions of greenhouse gases at current levels will not stabilize
concentrations. Once emitted, greenhouse gases remain in the atmosphere for decades to
centuries. At current emission levels, greenhouse gases are being released into the atmosphere faster
than they are being removed. As a result, if emissions remained constant at 1985 levels, the
greenhouse effect would continue to intensify for more than a century. Carbon dioxide
concentrations would reach 440-500 parts per million (ppm) by 2100, compared with about 350 ppm
today, and about 290 ppm 100 years ago (Figure 4). CFC concentrations would increase by more
than a factor of three from current levels, while nitrous oxide concentrations would increase by about
20%, and methane concentrations might remain roughly constant.
Drastic cuts in emissions would be required to stabilize atmospheric composition as shown in
Table 1 (see also, Box 1), and even if all anthropogenic emissions of CO2 CFCs, and N2O were
eliminated the concentrations of these gases would remain elevated for decades. It would take more
than 50 years, and possibly more than a century, for the oceans to absorb enough carbon to reduce
the atmospheric concentration of CO2 half way toward its preindustrial value. It would also take
more than 50 years before excess concentrations for CFCs and N2O declined by half after all
anthropogenic emissions were eliminated.
DRAFT - DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
13
February 21, 1989
Policy Options for Stabilizing Global Climate - Review Draft
Executive Summary
FIGURE 4
IMPACT OF CO2 EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS
ON ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATIONS
(Parts Per Million)
500
475
Constant
450
Emissions
PARTS PER MILLION
425
50% Cut
400
375
75% Cut
350
325
1985
2000
2025
2050
2075
2100
YEAR
Figure 4. The response of atmospheric CO2 concentrations to arbitrary emissions scenarios, based
on two one-dimensional models of ocean CO2 uptake. The emissions scenarios are relative to
estimated 1985 levels of 5.9 billion tons of carbon per year.
DRAFT - DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
14
February 21, 1989
Policy Options for Stabilizing Global Climate -- Review Draft
Executive Summary
TABLE 1
Approximate Reductions in Anthropogenic Emissions
Required to Stabilize Atmospheric Concentrations at Current Levels
GAS
REDUCTION REQUIRED
Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
50-80%
Methane (CH₄)
10-20%
Nitrous Oxide (N₂O)
80-85%
Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)
75-100%
CO, NO,
Freeze
BOX 1
The Greenhouse Gases
Carbon dioxide. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most abundant and single most important
greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Its concentration has increased by about 25% since the
industrial revolution. Detailed measurements since 1958 show an increase from 315 to 350
parts per million by volume (Figure 1). Carbon dioxide concentrations are currently increasing
at a rate of about 0.4% per year, which is responsible for about half of current increases in
commitment to global warming from greenhouse gas buildup (Figure 3). Both deforestation
and fossil-fuel combustion have contributed to this rise. Current emissions are estimated at
5.5 billion tons of carbon (Pg C) from fossil-fuel combustion and 0.4-2.6 Pg C from
deforestation. Most of this carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere or is absorbed by the
oceans. Even though only about half of current emissions remain in the atmosphere, available
models of CO2 uptake by the ocean suggest that substantially more than a 50% cut in
emissions is required to stabilize concentrations at current levels.
Methane. The concentration of methane (CH,) has more than doubled during the last
three centuries. Methane, which is currently increasing at a rate of 1% per year, is
responsible for about 20% of current increases in commitment to global warming. There is
considerable uncertainty about the sources of methane, and the observed increase is probably
due to increases in a number of sources as well as to changes in tropospheric chemistry.
Increases in agricultural sources, particularly rice cultivation and animal husbandry, have
probably been the most significant factor, but emissions from landfills and coal seams could
play an important role in the future. Of the major greenhouse gases only methane
concentrations can be stabilized with modest cuts in anthropogenic emissions: a 10-20% cut
would suffice to stabilize concentrations at current levels due to methane's relatively short
atmospheric lifetime, assuming that this lifetime remains constant and that natural emissions
do not change. Whether this is the case will depend on changes in tropospheric chemistry as
influenced by emissions of hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide, among others, and on whether
global climate change itself affects methane emissions.
DRAFT - DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
15
February 21, 1989
Policy Options for Stabilizing Global Climate - Review Draft
Executive Summary
Nitrous oxide. The concentration of nitrous oxide (N₂O) has increased by 5-10% since
preindustrial times. The cause of this increase is highly uncertain, but it appears that the use
of nitrogenous fertilizer, land clearing, biomass burning, and fossil-fuel combustion have all
contributed. Each additional molecule of nitrous oxide has over 200 times as much impact
on climate as additional molecules of carbon dioxide, and nitrous oxide can also contribute to
stratospheric ozone depletion. Nitrous oxide is currently increasing at a rate of 0.25% per
year, which represents an imbalance of about 30% between total emissions and total losses.
Nitrous oxide increases are responsible for roughly 6% of current increases in commitment
to global warming. Assuming that the observed increase in N2O concentrations is due to
anthropogenic sources and that natural emissions have not changed, then an 80-85% cut in
anthropogenic emissions would be required to stabilize N2O at current levels.
Halocarbons. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), currently the most important halocarbons,
were introduced into the atmosphere for the first time during this century. The most common
species are CFC-12 (CCI₂F₂) and CFC-11 (CCI,F), which had atmospheric concentrations in
1986 of 392 and 226 parts per trillion by volume, respectively. While these concentrations are
tiny compared with that of CO2 CFCs have as much as 20,000 times more impact on climate
per additional molecule and are increasing very rapidly-more than 4% per year since 1978.
A focus of attention because of their potential to deplete stratospheric ozone, the increasing
concentration of CFCs also represents about 15% of current increases in commitment to global
warming. For CFC-11 and CFC-12, cuts of 75% and 85%, respectively, of current global
emissions would be required to stabilize concentrations. However because of growth in other
compounds, in order to stabilize the total greenhouse warming potential from all halocarbons,
a phaseout of the fully halogenated compounds (those that do not contain hydrogen), a freeze
on the use of methyl chloroform, and a limit on the emissions of partially halogenated
substitutes would be required.
Other gases influencing composition. Emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen
oxides (NO,), among other species, in addition to the greenhouse gases just described, are also
changing the chemistry of the atmosphere. This change in atmospheric chemistry alters the
distribution of ozone and the oxidizing power of the atmosphere, changing the atmospheric
lifetimes of the greenhouse gases. If the concentrations of the long-lived gases were stabilized,
it might only be necessary to freeze emissions of the short-lived gases at current levels to
stabilize atmospheric composition.
In preparing this report, EPA did not develop scenarios that achieve zero change in
concentrations, instead we have focused on promising options that can significantly slow the rate of
greenhouse gas buildup and climatic change.
DRAFT - DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
16
February 21, 1989
GREEN DIPLOMACY
A cool look at hot air
We polluters
Net
per
head
emissions*
of greenhouse gases, 1987 tonnes of carbon
OECD countries
0
!
2
3
4.
5
Canada
United States
Australia
The environment is the new stuff of diplomacy. In London this month dip-
Holland
Britain
lomats will try to broaden the agreement to protect the ozone layer. Infi-
West Germany
nitely harder will be next year's negotiations on the greenhouse effect
France
Italy
AT
ONE time, environment ministers
pollution of the Rhine or with acid rain.
Spain
and their officials stayed at home and
Sometimes environmental damage threat-
Japan
worried about dirty rivers and smoky air. No
ens to harm most of humanity. That damage
longer. These days, they jet from city to city,
may be caused by a few countries-every-
Communist countries
haggling far into the night over clauses and
body loses something if Japan and Norway
5
sub-clauses, just like defence experts or
hunt whales to extinction, or if the rain for-
East Germany
trade ministers. For the past month, frantic
ests burn. Or the damage may come from
Soviet Union
efforts have been made to shore up the
many sources, as with CFCS or global
Czechoslovakia
Poland
Montreal protocol, the 1987 agreement to
warming.
Bulgaria
curb the use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCS)
What, though, is to be done? There is
Romania
which damage the ozone layer. Should they
no world government to pass the equivalent
Yugoslavia
fail, the outlook for any agreement to tackle
of Britain's 1956 Clean Air Act. Only
North Korea
the threat of global warming would be bleak.
through international agreement can coun-
Vietnam
In the past, countries made agreements
tries decide not to inflict environmental
China
to prevent a valuable species being hunted
harm on each other.
or fished to extinction. Recently, interna-
Developing countries
tional environmental agreements have be-
From Stockholm to Montreal
:
!
?
3
4.
5
come more frequent; and green matters are
The concept of such agreements has its
Brazil
no longer dealt with merely as side issues.
roots in the 1972 United Nations confer-
Ivory Coast
Between 1930 and 1959 the United States
ence on the human environment. This
Colombia
put into force only a handful of such trea-
Stockholm conference set up the United
Burma
Mexico
ties, mainly on whaling. In the 1960s and
Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP),
Indonesia
1970s the numbers rose to five per decade,
the body which has played the main part in
Thailand
as marine pollution and endangered species
green diplomacy. It also declared that
Philippines
became prominent issues. In the 1980s the
"States have responsibility to ensure
Nigeria
total was 11, of which four dealt with air and
that activities within their jurisdiction or
India
three with marine pollution.
control do not cause damage to the environ-
* Main three such gases (a) converted into their equivalent in heating terms
To understand this increase, start with
ment of other states or of areas beyond the
in carbon dioxide, and then (b) measured as tonnes of carbon
Source: Herok estimates from World Resources Institute, Washington DC
the main reason for environmental damage.
limits of national jurisdiction." The idea
Green resources, be they whales or clean air,
that those who pollute should bear the cost
should be financed, how disputes should be
often belong to nobody and everybody.
of preventing environmental damage, or at
settled, how voting rights should be allo-
That inevitably makes them more vulner-
least cleaning up after it, was adopted-also
cated, and so on.
able to overuse. Because the seas belong to
in 1972-by OECD countries, and tagged the
Thus with CFCs many governments at
nobody, any country that unilaterally cuts
"polluter pays" principle. In practice, inter-
first felt there was not enough evidence link-
its take of fish simply leaves more available
national negotiations have quite often left
ing them to ozone holes. So the first stage,
for other, less virtuous nations who-in
not the polluter but the victim footing the
the Vienna convention, signed in March
economists' jargon-profit as "free-riders".
bill, in order to get something done.
1985, was mainly an agreement to think
In an individual country, the state typi-
It was UNEP that developed the idea
more about the issue and to discuss future
cally steps in to prevent free-riding. The pea-
which has become central to environmental
action. Talks on a protocol began in Decem-
soup fogs that at one time plagued London
negotiations. One of its earliest exercises
ber 1986 and resulted, in March 1987, in the
were caused by the smoke from coal fires.
was to devise an agreement for the protec-
Montreal protocol, with its specific agree-
No individual householder had any incen-
tion of the Mediterranean. When talks got
ment to halve CFC production.
tive to burn smokeless fuel. Only in 1956,
stuck, UNEP came up with the notion of a
UNEP officials hope it will be possible to
after a particularly dreadful fog, was a law
framework convention, in which countries
start negotiations on a climate-change con-
brought in forbidding coal fires in certain
set out a few broad heads of agreement and
vention at the end of this year, after a meet-
areas-thus effectively banning free-riding.
ideas-on, say, sewage discharges or clean-
ing in Geneva to consider the reports of an
Increasingly, the green issues that preoc-
ing oil slicks-to be developed later in spe-
intergovernmental panel on climate change
cupy people do not-as London fog did-fit
cific protocols. Such conventions typically
(IPCC). UNEP would like a convention ready
into tidy national boundaries. Sometimes
also set out the machinery for future deci-
by mid-1992, when Brazil hosts a meeting of
they affect a group of countries, as with the
sion-making: the secretariat and how it
world leaders to mark the twentieth anni-
THE ECONOMIST JUNE 16 1990
17
GREEN DIPLOMACY
only one reason. The makers knew CFC
Pandora's gas-mask
would eventually be regulated anyway. So
were they to sit around bleating, or get Or
with developing substitutes? Obviously the
G
REENHOUSE negotiations will be
if everyone can agree on figures for a base
latter. But these would be costly to develop
bedevilled both by uncertain data
year-which?-how should they be mea-
and higher-priced than CFCs. So the makers
and by the multiple sources of the trou-
sured? Per head (most poor countries
had an interest in an early, clear framework
ble. In terms of heating effect, CFCs-po-
could ask why they should make any cuts
of regulation, applying to as many potential
tent sources of greenhousery-make up
at all)? Per unit of GNP (easier for the
competitors as possible. No one wanted to
around 45% of West Germany's total
rich)? How should targets for cuts be set?
pour money into alternatives and then find.
emissions, 35% of America's, only 21/2%
Overall, or gas by gas? In percentage
say, Indian chemicals firms exporting cheap
of Brazil's. Methane (from fossil fuels,
terms? The same for all? Should coun-
CFC-based products.
rice-growing and livestock) accounts for
tries that would find cuts costly (eg, Ja-
Climate change is unlikely to see this
maybe 45% of India's emissions, 15% of
pan) be able to meet their targets by pay-
convergence between industry and govern-
America's, 5% of Japan's.
ing for cuts in other countries (eg, Brazil)?
ment. CFCS are produced by a small number
Or do they? These are just one set of
Only one thing is certain: the argu-
of companies worldwide, and have a narrow
heroic estimates for one year, 1987. Even
ments could generate hot air for years.
range of uses-air conditioning, refrigera-
tion, cleaning electronic parts, foam-blow-
How do you measure what?
ing. The producers of fossil fuels, the main
Net greenhouse-gas emissions per unit of GNP, 1987*
source of man-made greenhouse gases, are
Carbon dioxide
CFCs
Methane
legion; so are the users; and the fuels are far
Japan
harder to replace.
United States
The biggest difference, though, will be
that of the scale and distribution of costs
Soviet Union
and benefits. As Mr Barrett points out, in-
West Germany
ternational agreements on the environment
are rather like producer cartels. Countries
India
or companies join cartels because the gains
Brazil
from acting together are greater than those
from going it alone. But if co-operation from
0
Tonnes *
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
time to time demands large sacrifices, some
Source: WRI estimates
Tonnes carbon equivalent per Sm of GNP
will cheat and the cartel will eventually col-
lapse. OPEC pushed up the oil price on the
back of strong demand; once demand fell
versary of the Stockholm conference.
had suspected this; only in 1985, after the
and big production cuts became necessary
The groundwork for a climate-change
ozone hole over the Antarctic was actually
to prop up prices, some producers preferred
convention has been prepared more thor-
observed and shown to have grown rapidly,
to free-ride.
oughly than for any previous environmental
did negotiations gather pace. A similar
In the case of CFCS, the gains to coun-
treaty. But it will still be hard to achieve, let
trend, from growing scientific consensus to
tries from co-operating were clearly greater
alone by 1992. Some countries, such as West
clear evidence of damage, lay behind the
than those from acting alone. And the bene-
Germany, say they want to negotiate simul-
change in West Germany's position on acid
fits of avoiding ozone depletion are both
taneously on a broad convention and a spe-
rain. Only in 1982, as German forests began
reasonably well defined and well distributed:
cific protocol. The greener Scandinavian
to die, did West Germany come to support
no one country or group of countries stands
countries feel that a vague convention
cuts in emissions of sulphur dioxide. With
to gain much more than others. Nor are the
would look like procrastination. The Ameri-
global warming, a scientific consensus of
costs of cutting CFCs vast: witness the many
cans are too suspicious of even a general
sorts emerged in the first IPCC report, pub-
countries that had acted on their own even
convention to start considering protocols.
lished last month. But the uncertainties are
before the Montreal protocol, and the large
Some third-world countries will not start
still immense. It may need firm evidence
number-56-that have already signed it.
talking at all until they get assurances that
that the world has already begun to warm to
With global warming, few of these
any convention will offer them cash to help
persuade countries to take climate change
points hold true. If the doomsters are right,
meet the costs of complying with it.
seriously. "Pray for another hot summer in
the gains from international action would
America," says one negotiator.
From Montreal to Brazil
indeed be huge, far larger than any one
The Montreal protocol was also helped
country could achieve on its own behalf. But
The Montreal protocol on CFCs is the
by positive pressure from industry. In 1986
the costs too would be huge. The benefits, in
nearest thing to a dry run for a climate-
Du Pont, the world's largest producer of
contrast, are uncertain and far off. And they
change convention. It was a remarkable
CFCS, announced that alternatives could be
are likely to be unevenly distributed. Ozone
achievement. Governments agreed to steps
available within five years. In October 1988,
depletion threatens all nations with an in-
to protect the environment against future
even before America and the EC decided to
crease in cancers, like a kind of worldwide
dangers, the main evidence for which was
go beyond Montreal and ban CFCs entirely,
Chernobyl. Global warming may or may not
not scientific fact but scientific speculation.
Du Pont announced that it would support
have various climatic effects in various
They also committed themselves to targets
such a ban by the year 2000. Six months ear-
places, but no one yet agrees what or where;
before the technology to achieve them was
lier it had already said it intended to stop
and for some nations they could beneficial.
available. But all this was made possible by
producing the most harmful CFCS alto-
While Bangladesh vanishes under the sea,
special circumstances which may not be
gether. ICI, the leading European producer,
other countries may find they can grow
there with climate change.
made a similar announcement.
grain where grain never grew before.
One factor was growing scientific under-
Why was industry so helpful? Mr Scott
So a climate convention will not be easy
standing of ozone depletion in the strato-
Barrett, of the London Business School, ar-
to reach. The Americans, the Russians,
sphere. For more than a decade scientists
gues that corporate good citizenship was
China and Saudi Arabia, to name no more,
18
THE ECONOMIST JUNE 16 1990
GREEN DIPLOMACY
are dragging their feet. Some countries will
head of UNEP, argues that the amount of
bribery will be even less clear than with
prefer to be free-riders rather than sign.
cash needed is modest. One estimate made
CFCS. Should China, for instance, be com-
Some that expect to gain from global warm-
for UNEP puts the extra cost to the third
pensated for not burning its coal? If so, by
ing may not even consider signing.
world of using CFC substitutes at $1.8 billion
whom? First-world signatories to the Mon-
(in present-value terms) from 1990 to 2008;
treal protocol are arguing over whether con-
Targets and payments
and maybe much less, if the cost of substi-
tributions to the proposed fund should be
The prospects of agreement may yet be bet-
tutes falls fast as the market grows. In addi-
levied on the usual UN formula, related to
ter than this analysis suggests. For comfort,
tion there would be the capital costs of con-
national wealth, or on a basis of CFC emis-
look at the case of acid rain. Countries that
version in user industries. Two estimates
sions. With CFCS the rival formulae produce
emit lots of sulphur dioxide and nitrous ox-
here suggest around $200m over 1991-93,
similar answers. Not so with carbon dioxide.
ides, the causes of acid rain, may suffer little
with $20m more for things like retraining.
In any event, America would be the larg-
either from their own emissions or from
Premature closure of CFC-producing plants
est payer. The White House already thinks
those of other countries. Yet two such coun-
might cost $150m, mostly after 2000.
that the economic costs of a serious attempt
tries, Britain and the United States, have
One estimate suggests an annual budget
to cut greenhouse gases could far outstrip
both, in the past few years, agreed to cut
for the fund of $240m-300m in its first three
the benefits. Add the budgetary costs of
these emissions. Old-fashioned morality has
years. That is not much. But the Americans
helping the third world to cut its emissions,
played a part. So has shame. So, more inter-
see this as a precedent. Though payments
and the sums look still more alarming.
estingly, has a sense that there may be offset-
would be tied to measures to replace CFCS,
Even trickier may be the question of
ting gains elsewhere, in trade, defence or
they would be a departure from the polluter-
technology transfer. Third-world countries
other environmental negotiations.
pays principle: crudely, a bribe to discourage
want assurances, even before they start hag-
That offers one clue to getting potential
free-riding. Bribery may prove the only way
gling, that they will have access to first-world
free-riders to sign up. Don't ask them to be
to achieve that, but it is risky. At which
technology to cut their emissions. First-
too virtuous, and compensate them for the
countries, and at what sums, would it stop?
world governments protest that technology
costs that they incur. In practice, only poor
The idea is not, in fact, unprecedented.
transfer is not as simple as some poor coun-
countries can hope for compensation. But
In Eastern Europe, payments by the victims
tries pretend-and anyway companies' in-
all signatories, of course, must be set stan-
will soon be common. Already Sweden
tellectual property is not theirs to dispose of.
dards of virtue. These will be two big issues
helps Poland with technology to prevent
of negotiations on climate change. Just who
acid rain, and other West European coun-
A modest start
should be how virtuous? And how are third-
tries are considering similar arrangements.
Because the costs of coping with climate
world signatories to be compensated?
They reckon that a dollar spent in Eastern
change are so great, the best hope of success
The Montreal protocol allows develop-
Europe buys far more improvement in air
will be in those areas where benefits are
ing countries easier CFC limits than rich
quality than one spent at home. Other con-
greatest and most evenly distributed. That
ones, and a ten-year grace period to meet
ventions too will require side payments. If a
might mean a series of specific agreements
them, but makes no distinction among the
convention on the preservation of biological
on research, say, or on energy conservation.
rich. Things will be harder with greenhouse
diversity is to persuade countries with rain
Where the costs of action are lowest-as
gases. Already Britain has announced a later
forests not to destroy them, Brazil will want
with energy conservation-the temptation
date for stabilising its emissions (2005) than
cash. The possibilities of abuse are evident.
to free-ride also will be low. A limited group
fellow-EC countries (2000). Energy-efficient
Canny third-world countries will see in the
of countries, such as the EC or the OECD,
countries (like Japan) will be reluctant to
environment a new source of first-world
might therefore take joint action without
make the same percentage cuts as inefficient
cash. Yes, they will promise, we will be good
waiting for the rest of the world. Such mod-
ones (like the United States). Nor can third-
greens-but only at a price.
est steps would be less impressive than a
world countries all be treated alike. One or
With the fossil fuels involved in the
global "law of the atmosphere". But they are
two, such as Brazil, with its burning forests,
greenhouse effect, the boundary between
more practicable. And they would be a start.
send up greenhouse gases on a first-world
meeting the costs of compliance and straight
scale; others produce little. It will be hard to
agree even on figures of who emits how
much-the calculations are complex-let
alone on how much each should cut.
Agreement on compensation for the
third world may prove harder still. The
Montreal protocol demonstrates the risks
here. Last autumn the UN passed a resolu-
tion calling for "new and additional" money
to help third-world countries become
greener. Faced with a specific demand to put
up new money for a fund to help them re-
place CFCS, the Americans two months ago
refused. Other first-world signatories were
aghast (or tried to look it: several, including
West Germany and Britain, may in fact qui-
etly siphon their contributions out of exist-
ing aid budgets). Two of the third world's
three biggest potential emitters of CFCS, In-
dia and China, have not signed the proto-
col, and will not do so without a promise of
cash. The third, Brazil, has signed, but says
it will back out unless the cash is enough.
Mr Mostafa Tolba, the canny Egyptian
We should make cuts?
20
THE ECONOMIST JUNE 16 1990
EPA in the News
Cont.
No cooing was apparent, however, which prompted Angell's study. He
found that the warming effect of E1 Nino swamped the cooling from the
volcanoes in the original record. When the E1 Nino warming is deleted
the volcanic effects become much more obvious, he explained.
The El Nino is named with the Spanish word for the Christ Child
because it was first noticed by South American fishermen and generally
occurs around Christmas time.
AP-NP-07-05-90 1251EDT(-
end.
EPA in the New
v16363exec
r i AP-HydrogenCar
07-05 0273
^AP-Hydrogen Car
`Japanese Professor Demonstrates Hydrogen-Powered Car <
By DAVID GROSS=
YOKOSUKA, Japan (AP) - A Japanese professor who has built a car
powered by highly volatile liquid hydrogen demonstrated the vehicle
Thursday and said it causes almost no air pollution.
Industry officials said, however, it may take 10 years to produce a
commercial version of the car, developed by Shoichi Furuhama, president
of the Musashi Institute of Technology.
The car's liquid hydrogen fuel is made from water and costs $22.80 a
gallon in Japan, officials said.
In a test drive Thursday, the car, known as the Musashi 8, reached a
speed of 82 mph. Test drivers at Nissan's Uppama factory, near Tokyo,
said they believed the Musashi 8 could reach a speed of 94 mph.
The car does not backfire before combustion, a defect that has
slowed previous research on hydrogen-fueled cars, Furuhama said. I has
computer-run pumps and valves that keep the liquid hydrogen at minus
453 degrees.
Furuhama said the car creates almost no air pollution.
The engine is in a Nissan Fairlady Z body. Nissan has provided
financial support and technical assistance to Furuhama's research team.
But the new vehicle still has many problems, its developers said.
Liquid hydrogen is exremely volatile and engineers are concerned
about the dangers of explosion in a crash. Furuhama said the difficulty
of obtaining liquid hydrogen has prevented scientists from thoroughly
studying its safety.
A researcher working with Furuhama said on condition of anonymity
the car also must carry a large volume of fuel. Hydrogen cars sometimes
have been jokingly referred to as `cars which carry fuel and not
passengers, he said.
Yasuhiko Nakagawa, a researcher at Nissan's Central Engineering
Laboratories, said the fuel mileage is also not as high as for
conventional vehicles.
AP-NP-07-05-90 1059EDT (-
JUL
The New York Times
1990
The Houston Summit: Wrangling Threatens Unity
Europeans Accuse the U.S. of Balking on
Plans to Combat Global Warming
By ROBERTO SURO
A10
In the final communiqué of that
Special to The New York Times
Sununu sees
meeting, the national leaders declared
that "decisive action is urgently
HOUSTON, July 9 - Senior Euro-
pean officials at the economic summit
level of
needed to understand and protect the
earth's ecological balance."
conference accused the United States
today of frustrating their efforts to
haste.'
'Common Efforts' Urged
reach a new accord to combat global
On the issue of global warming the
warming.
tion, James T.B. Tripp, general coun-
communiqué stated, "We strongly ad-
The European officials, including
sel of the Environmental Defense
vocate common efforts to limit emis-
members of the British, French and
Fund, a Washington-based advocacy
sions of carbon dioxide and other
Italian delegations who asked not to be
group, said, "These statements may
greenhouse gases, which threaten to in-
identified, angrily complained that
serve to explain why United States per
duce climate change, endangering the
John H. Sununu, the White House chief
capita consumption of fossil fuels is so
environment and ultimately the econ-
of staff, had taken the leading role in
high compared to Western Europe and omy."
organizing American opposition to the
Japan, but they are not legitimate ex-
global warming initiative.
cuses for United States refusal to limit
Even as the summit delegations
Asked at a news briefing this morn-
carbon dioxide emissions and take
began gathering here this weekend,
ing why the United States was resisting
steps to use energy much more effi-
European officials hoped that the
a West German proposal to set a target
ciently."
Houston talks would build on the rheto-
for reducing gases that cause global
Although President Bush has mus-
ric of the Paris communiqué. But at a
warming, Mr. Sununu replied, "The
tered allies to support his views on the
meeting Sunday night American offi-
issue is being addressed with a level of
two other major issues being ad-
cials raised a series of paralyzing ob-
haste." He added, "There seems to be
dressed at the summit talks - aid to
jections, a European participant said.
some propensity to deal with the issue
the Soviet Union and international
trade - he now stands alone on the
"We had thought we were making
without putting all the data on the
progress," the European official said
table."
third area of the agenda, the environ-
ment.
today, "but at last night's meeting it
Kohl Asks 'Radical Measures'
was discouragingly obvious that
Pledges Made by Others
In a letter sent to summit leaders
Sununu was back in the ascendancy,
last month, Chancellor Helmut Kohl of
As the summit meeting's official ses-
and the United States was yielding
West Germany called for "internation-
sions began today, European officials
nothing."
ally binding regulations with "radical
worried that the United States would
block their effort to win a commitment
European officials said that the first
measures to limit" gas emissions that
to stabilize and then reduce emissions
sign that President Bush would resist a
contribute to the greenhouse effect.
of carbon dioxide and other gases that
global warming initiative came when
Chancellor Kohl said: "We must
contribute to the greenhouse effect.
William K. Reilly, the administrator of
view the threat of climate change as a
Many scientists believe that these
the Environmental Protection Agency
global challenge to all mankind. The
gases trap heat from the sun that
was left behind in Washington. Mr.
world expects the seven summit coun-
would otherwise escape back into
Reilly was a prominent member of the
tries to come up with far-reaching, spe-
space. The trapped gases then produce
Bush delegation to the Paris talks.
cific proposals."
Mr. Sununu insisted today that the
a gradual warming of the earth's at-
In Mr. Reilly's absence the role of
Bush Administration had endorsed
mosphere.
chief adviser on environmental mat-
limits on some emissions through the
Except for the United States, all the
ters has been assumed by Mr. Sununu,
Clean Air Act, but he opposed new
industrial nations represented at the
who has publicly disagreed with Mr.
emission limits, contending that they
summit meeting have now pledged to
Reilly on assessments of environmen-
would require major changes in the
stabilize greenhouse gas emissions, at
tal dangers. At the news briefing this
American way of life and the nation's
least by early in the next century.
morning, Mr. Sununu rejected the kind
industrial structure.
Even Britain and Japan, which for-
of joint commitment to specific limita-
He noted, for instance, that because
merly sided with Washington in insist-
tions on gas emissions that the West
the United States was much larger
ing that more scientific and economic
Germans among others are pressing
than Japan or any of the European na-
information was needed before taking
the meeting to adopt.
tions it had a greater reliance on cars
action, are developing plans to reduce
He said, "There is a concern that this
and trucks to transport people and
carbon dioxide emissions. West Ger-
products.
idea of a permanent cap in perpetuity
many has taken the lead, with a goal of
does not understand not only our
Commenting on Mr. Sununu's posi-
reducing such emissions by 25 percent
growth needs, but the growth needs of
in the next 15 years.
A letter from
the developing countries of the world."
President Bush's apparent determi-
nation to block a global warming initia-
He added, "so what we are seeking is
Kohl sees a
tive at this summit meeting stands in
a commitment that is broader, a com-
sharp contrast to his embrace of major
mitment that would allow both the in-
global challenge.
environmental commitments at last
dustrialized countries and the develop-
year's economic summit talks in Paris.
ing countries to address the broad
issue of greenhouse gases without pick-
ing them one by one, setting caps on
16
them individually."
The New York Times
JUL 10 1990
OPEC Output
Slipped in June
:
NICOSIA, Cyprus, July 9
Oil Production
(Reuters) - Oil output of the
Organization of Petroleum Ex-,
porting Countries fell by
By Venezuela
420,000 barrels a day in June, to
23.26 million, mainly because of
CARACAS, Venezuela, July 9
a sharp drop in Iranian produc-
(Reuters) - Venezuela's state
tion, the Middle East Economic,
oil company Friday announced
Survey said today.
plans to increase production
The Nicosia-based newslet-ᶜ
capacity nearly 50 percent in
ter said Iran's output in June,
the next few years, despite a
fell by 500,000 barrels a day, to
world oil glut that is driving
2.9 million, from 3.4 million in
prices down.
Petróleos de Venezuela S.A.
May, below the OPEC quota as-
signed to Iran of 3.14 million
plans to invest $8 billion in ex-
barrels a day.
ploration and development pro-
The survey said production
grams to bring production ca-
by Kuwait, which has an OPEC
pacity up to 3.65 million barrels
quota of 1.5 million barrels, fell
a day by 1993, the company's
by 50,000 barrels in June, to 1.7
president, Andrés Sosa Pietri,
said.
million. The United Arab Emir-
ates, another purported viola-"
Petroleum industry analysts
tor of its quota, was reported to
said Venezuela currently has a
have cut its output by 100,000
production capacity of about
barrels, to 1.95 million.
2.5 million barrels a day.
Saudi Arabia's daily produc-
The company planned to in-
tion in June rose to 5.2 million
crease actual production to 2.7
barrels from 5.1 million in May,
million barrels a day by 1993
still well below its quota of 5.335
and to 3.1 million by 1995, up
million, while Iraqi output re-,
from an average of 2.02 million
mained steady at its May level
barrels a day in the first quar-
of 3.15 million barrels a day,
ter of this year, and up from the
the newsletter said.
1.9-million-barrel-a-day quota
set by the Organization of Pe-
troleum Exporting Countries.
15
EPA in the News
NEWSWEEK JUNE 18. 1990 51
installed about 1,000 fluorescents, and
halved its lighting bill. Although fluores-
cents can cost 20 times as much as incan-
ENVIRONMENT
descents, they last 10 times longer, saving
the consumer money, and emit light indis-
Fighting the Greenhouse
tinguishable from incandescents. Since
fluorescent bulbs draw less electricity, sub-
stituting one for an incandescent prevents
the emission of up to 382 pounds of CO2 that
would otherwise be emitted from power
And you don't have to freeze in the dark to do it
plants (table). Other gizmos helped the
I
course you know what it will take to
use hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) as
Energy: Just Say No
save the world from the greenhouse
effect. To cut emissions of carbon diox-
the cooling fluid, and indirectly release CO2
U
sing energy more efficiently, whether
ide-the gas released when coal, gas or oil
when electricity to run them is generated.
you're driving or keeping a six-pack frosty,
burn and the one responsible for more than
HCFCs and CO2 are greenhouse gases. But
cuts emissions of CO2. It also saves money.
half of the impending global warming-
plug-in cooling needn't turn up the global
thermostat. A model patented last year by
ITEM
EXTRA COST
TIME TO
CARBON
you'll have to turn down the heater in
AT PURCHASE
PAY BACK
SAVED
winter and break out the long johns. In
Albers Technologies Corp. of Arizona cools
air to 54 degrees Fahrenheit, dehumidifies
Refrigerator
$30
1.5 yrs.
180
lbs.
summer, don't even think of air condition-
ing. Chuck your 100-watt bulbs, screw in
it and removes contaminants. It uses water,
Car
$500
3 yrs.
800
lbs.
40s. Trade in the dishwasher and clothes
not HCFCs, and draws half the electricity of
One fluorescent
dryer for a dish drainer and laundry line.
conventional units. At $2,000 for a unit big
lightbulb
But wait. Human nature being what it is,
enough to cool a 1,500-square-foot house, it
$7
1 yr.
223 lbs.
scientists realize that if we depend on a
costs about the same as current models. No
SOURCES: HOME ENERGY: RICHARD HEEDE, ROCKY MT. INSTITUTE
penchant for sacrifice to forestall the green-
American makers have expressed an inter-
est-they don't want to fiddle with their
Natural Resources Defense Council cut its
house effect, we might as well start building
product unless the government bans
office energy bill by more than half: occu-
sea walls to hold back the waters that will
pancy sensors use infrared or ultrasonic
rise along with the thermostat. Surveys
HCFCs. But last month a Saudi Arabian
signals to detect motion, turning lights off
show that only about one fifth of those ques-
firm, Alessa Industries, agreed to turn out
when no one is in the room. Because of such
tioned would keep their homes warmer in
25,000 every year beginning in 1992-and
savings, Amory Lovins of the Rocky Moun-
summer or chillier in winter to help the
export 20,000 back to the United States.
tain Institute says, "this is not a free lunch.
environment. Luckily, though, conserva-
Other breakthroughs are as close as the
This is a lunch you are paid to eat."
tion 1990s style doesn't mean freezing in
nearest window. During the winter, win-
Even refrigerators can help stave off the
the dark. From superwindows that leak no
dows in the United States leak about as
greenhouse. In today's models, a single unit
heat to fridges that work like giant Ther-
much heat as is provided by the oil flowing
lowers temperatures in the freezer and
mos bottles, "there is a host of technological
through the Alaskan pipeline every year.
moves chilled air to the fridge-which
changes we can make that will let us keep
Researchers led by Stephen Selkowitz at
doesn't need to be as cold. At Oak Ridge,
the amenities we're used to," says Eric
the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory in Cali-
researchers think that using different
Hirst of Oak Ridge National Laboratory.
fornia can fix that with a "superwindow."
mixes of coolants and separate cooling loops
Last week the World Resources Institute
It has three layers of glazing and two coat-
could offer energy savings of an additional
announced new data that suggest the
ings of metal oxides that cut heat loss; the
20 percent. And by replacing the CFC insu-
greenhouse threat is more serious than had
space between the panes is filled with kryp-
lation with vacuum insulation as in a Ther-
been realized. Forty million to fifty million
ton and argon gases. Result: the window
mos, refrigerators wouldn't need CFCs.
acres of tropical forests are disappearing
collects more heat on a winter's day than it
Electric utilities have led the charge
each year, said WRI-50 percent faster
leaks at night. Superwindows today cost
toward energy efficiency partly from envi-
than earlier satellite photos showed. Defor-
about 30 percent more than moderately
ronmental concern, but largely because of
estation is second only to the burning of
efficient ones; even better versions are
the bottom line: it costs 30 to 50 percent less'
fossil fuels as a source of carbon dioxide
about to leave the lab. This week Libbey
to cut demand for power than to build new
(CO2). Even without the new data, an inter-
Owens Ford will introduce special glass
generating capacity. Wisconsin Power Co.
national panel convened at the urging of
coatings that allow sunlight to penetrate
offers rebates for installing efficient refrig-
the Bush administration, and 38 other
better than it can through plain glass, pro-
erators; Southern California Edison will
countries concluded last month that global
viding low-tech solar heating to a room.
pay customers to install more efficient win-
warming will raise sea levels enough to
And LBL is working on a "smart window"
dows. New England Electric offers rebates
inundate the plains of Holland and Bangla-
that changes electronically from clear,
to lighting dealers so they will lower the
desh and obliterate the Maldives, among
which allows sunshine in on cold days, to
price of fluorescents; it has also insulated
other disasters. It called for a 60 percent
reflective, which diverts rays on scorchers.
more than 100,000 customers' hot-water
cut in CO2 emissions. Conservation is the
Similar chameleonlike glass for car sun
tanks for free. CEO John Rowe says, "Con-
cheapest and fastest way to do that, at least
roofs can keep out enough sunshine to dras-
servation is the heart of our environmental
until solar and wind power, which emit no
tically cut the need for air conditioning,
strategy." But, only 10 states let utilities
CO2, are widely available. Efficiency alone,
and should be in models next year.
earn a return on investments in efficiency,
calculates Christopher Flavin of World-
Best bulbs: Researchers also have bright
hampering widespread adoption.
watch Institute, could cut global CO2 emis-
ideas for lighting, which accounts for al-
In the cold: For next year the administra-
sions 3 billion tons a year by 2010, from
most 25 percent of U.S. electricity use. Re-
tion is requesting $213 million for the
today's 5.6 billion.
placing standard incandescents with the
Department of Energy's conservation re-
Nations might start with that symbol of
best balbs, compact fluorescents, can cut
search, which now receives $411 million.
energy profligacy, air conditioners. They
electricity use by as much as two thirds.
The White House questions whether the
contd
Last year Reno's Peppermill Hotel Casino
EPA in the News
Cont d
United States will suffer from global
warming, and therefore opposes making
possibly expensive changes to control the
greenhouse. But in a significant break with
this wait-and-see policy, Prime Minister
Margaret Thatcher last month announced
that Britain would cut CO2 growth 20 per-
cent by 2005, stabilizing it at 1990 levels,
if other nations follow suit. How? Heavy
reliance on energy efficiency is a likely
option. "You can cut carbon emissions 20,
30 percent without any economic cost,"
says Michael Grubb of the Royal Institute
for Economic Affairs. Bringing all homes
up to the latest standards for insulation, for
example, would cut emissions nearly 9 per-
cent, estimates Stewart Boyle of Britain's
Association for the Conservation of Ener-
gy. This week the West German cabinet is
expected to consider a proposal to cut car-
bon emissions 30 percent by 2010. Increas-
ingly, as the world grapples with the uncer-
tain threat of the greenhouse, the United
States is being left out in the cold.
SHARON BEGLEY with DANIEL PEDERSEN
in London
Lind
GOVERNING
APRIL 1990
Cruz County, have similar pro-
A lot of states
honest not to address cars."
grams, as do Minnesota, South
In California, an initiative
Dakota and Wisconsin. And
are pondering reducing
still in the signature-gathering
last year, San Francisco be-
came the nation's first city to
auto emissions by
stage, but expected to be on
the ballot in November, would
impose similar energy stan-
increasing taxes on the
require the state to develop a
dards on commercial real es-
plan to reduce carbon dioxide
tate.
cars themselves or on
by 20 percent, from 1988 lev-
In Newton, Massachusetts,
the fuel they use.
els, by the year 2000 and by
city officials are saving energy
40 percent by 2010. Although
by replacing light bulbs. Re-
the initiative doesn't specify
publican Mayor Theodore Mann says that by simply
whether the reductions would come from cars or industrial
replacing all the light bulbs in city buildings with
sources, a reduction. that large would be expected to
fluorescent ones that use less energy, Newton will save
include both.
$200,000 a year in electricity bills.
While Americans are loathe to pay more taxes for the
The mayor also wants to expand the environmentally
privilege of driving their cars, two things are happening
wise choices that residents can make and says that local
that may give proposals like these some political help. The
grocery chains have expressed interest in his proposal that
first is that politicians are now linking the fuel efficiency
they copy a Canadian idea and create "green aisles" that
proposals with other public concerns, such as traffic
carry items that do less damage to the environment-with
congestion and smog. The second is that a new idea, called
biodegradable or minimal packaging, for instance. Not
calculating the "external cost" of energy use, is catching
only that, Newton is literally becoming "greener." City
on. Simply put, it means figuring how much society pays
officials bought three tree farms and are busy planting
to deal with the environmental damage caused by
trees to help absorb carbon dioxide, the most harmful of
producing energy-not just the direct costs of bringing the
the greenhouse gases, and make the city more attractive
energy to the consumer. Thus, a user of a gallon of gas
at the same time.
should pay not only for the cost of refining and marketing
the gas but also for rectifying the environmental harm.
here are, however, limits to what a city can do.
In Missouri, Democratic Representative Karen Mc-
T
Newark's Sharpe James observes, for example, that
Carthy heads a study commission charged by the legisla-
while a recycling program keeps a lot of bottles
ture to examine these external costs and recommend what
out of the waste stream, requiring a deposit for bottle
Missouri can do to mitigate global warming through
return would be even better. That is not, however,
changes in its energy, agricultural and industrial policies.
something the city can do alone. A bottle deposit bill in
The commission, made up of politicians, environmentalists,
Newark would simply encourage shoppers to get their
educators and industry leaders, is trying to come up with
sodas and beer in the nearest town without a deposit. "It's
ideas that will make economic sense and environmental
just not in the interest of a city or a county to do it," says
sense. It is to report by the end of the year.
the mayor. "On some of these issues, we're going to have
A state that has already plunged into the environmental
to win at the state level."
policy arena is Vermont. In 1987, it banned the use of
A more powerful illustration of the limits of local power
polystyrene made with chlorofluorocarbons. Last year, it
relates to automobiles, the largest producers of carbon
passed legislation banning, by 1993, the sale and registra-
dioxide. Newark did convert some of the city's vehicle fleet
tion of cars that have air conditioners that use CFCs in
to use propane, which burns cleaner than gasoline, but
their coolants. Also last year, Democratic Governor Made-
with few gas stations selling propane, the cars often burn
leine M. Kunin issued an executive order requiring state
extra fuel getting to those stations.
officials to come up with a comprehensive energy plan by
One way to reduce auto emissions is to toughen "tailpipe
January 1991. The goal of the plan is to reduce energy use
standards" that directly regulate what cars can emit.
in the state 20 percent and greenhouse gases 15 percent
California is already taking this step, and it will soon be
by the year 2000.
joined by a number of northeastern states. Another way is
The governor says that these actions were taken in
to provide economic incentives at the consumer level for
response to citizens' concerns. And Kunin, too, thinks that
production of more fuel-efficient automobiles. That means
this kind of public policy makes good politics. "There are
increased taxes, either on the cars themselves or on the
higher expectations of government," she says. "Govern-
fuel they use.
ment used to provide for the health and safety and welfare
It is an idea a lot of states are pondering. In Connecticut,
of its people. Now that includes the environment."
Democratic Representative Mary Mushinsky is proposing,
The new environmental awareness was the reason for
for the second year in a row, precisely these two ideas. As
celebrating the first Earth Day, in 1970. It contributed to
part of a comprehensive energy bill, she wants to increase
the enactment of landmark legislation to provide federal
the state sales tax on gas guzzlers and the excise tax on
standards for clean air and clean water. This April 22, the
auto fuel. Mushinsky is the first to admit that these
20th anniversary of Earth Day will be much more a
proposals played a big part in defeating the bill last year,
celebration of state and local initiatives and the new role
but she concludes, "It would not have been intellectually
of state and local officials as environmental activists.
56
CONTINUED
GOVERNING
APRIL 1990
THE VILLAINS IN THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT
he "greenhouse
electric utilities and
T
gases' got their
Contributions to
homes.
name from the
the Greenhouse
Next on the list, ac-
"greenhouse effect"
Effect, 1980s
counting for about 15
they create when they
percent of the green-
accumulate in large
house effect, is a group
amounts: They act like
of synthetic gases called
the glass panes of a green-
chlorofluorocarbons.
house, preventing heat
CFCs are used as cool-
from escaping from the
6%
49%
ants in refrigerators and
earth's atmosphere.
Nitrous
Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
air conditioners, and in
The gases are for the
Oxide (N2O)
the production of some
most part the product of
18%
plastic packaging mate-
13%
14%
Methane
human activity. These
Other
rial. In addition to being
Chlorofluorocarbons
(CH4)
gases-which include car-
greenhouse gases, CFCs
(CFCs)
bon dioxide, chlorofluoro-
also contribute to the
carbons, halon, methane
breakdown of the ozone
and nitrous oxide-are
layer, which filters out
created through the com-
deadly ultraviolet radia-
bustion of fossil fuels in
Electric Utilities
Buildings
12%
tion, when they reach
33%
automobile engines and
Industry
the stratosphere. For
24%
in manufacturing, from
that reason, CFCs were
refrigeration and air con-
31%
banned for use as the
Transportation
ditioner use, and from
propellant ingredient in
the disposal of solid and
aerosol sprays in the
United States in the mid-
liquid waste.
The most significant
1970s.
contributor to the green-
Another synthetic gas,
house effect is carbon
called halon, often used
dioxide, which is nor-
U.S. Sources of
in fire extinguishers be-
mally a harmless and
Carbon Dioxide
cause of its ability to
colorless gas that is not
Source: World Resources Institute
smother electrical fires,
considered a pollutant.
has a similar greenhouse
When it reaches the
effect.
earth's upper atmosphere, however, it accounts for
The other greenhouse gases include methane, which
about half of the greenhouse effect. Carbon dioxide is
is a naturally occurring gas associated with the microbes
one of the byproducts of the combustion of fossil
present in cattle and in rice fields, and nitrous oxide,
fuels-coal, oil and natural gas. The biggest users of
which is produced by fossil fuel combustion and also is
those fuels are, in descending order, cars, factories,
released by nitrogen fertilizers.
-K.S.
Newark economy.
tion programs in the country. Since 1983, the city has
Now, interest is growing in other ways to reduce the
required property owners to make their residences more
gases that contribute to the greenhouse effect. On Earth
energy efficient. When a piece of real estate is sold there,
Day, Newark will become the second U.S. city, after
it must be certified as energy efficient, and the cost of
Irvine, California, to ban the manufacture and use of all
bringing the property up to standard is paid by the seller.
compounds that deplete the planet's protective ozone layer.
The residential requirements include attic insulation,
It also will require that local refrigeration, air conditioning
weatherstripping on outside doors, insulating blankets on
and fire extinguisher repair services recycle all of these
hot-water heaters and insulation on heating and cooling
compounds, rather than releasing them into the air in the
ducts.
course of repairing machinery.
In the first five years, says Terry O'Sullivan of the city's
Other cities have chosen different approaches to reduce
Public Utility Commission, about one-fifth of the city's
greenhouse gas emissions. Energy conservation works
residences changed hands, resulting in an estimated savings
because it reduces the need for burning fossil fuels. And
of $5 million in energy costs. A number of other local
chilly San Francisco has one of the best energy conserva-
governments, including neighboring Berkeley and Santa
CONTINUED
55
JUN
/
3
The New York Times
1990
U.S. Urged to End Opposition to Ozone Aid
from the World Bank or other interna-
By PHILIP SHABECOFF
ronment would fall apart.
tional lending institutions. The Admin-
Special to The New York Times
He said he was optimistic that the
istration also opposes the creation of a
WASHINGTON, June 12 - The head
United States would change its position
new fund at the World Bank for envi-
of the United Nations Environment
before a meeting in London this week
ronmental programs.
Program strongly urged the United
called to strengthen an existing inter-
Legislation has been introduced in
national treaty to protect ozone in the
Congress that would require the Gov-
States today to reconsider its decision
to oppose new financial aid to third-
atmosphere from being destroyed by
ernment to contribute funds to help the
chlorofluorocarbons and other indus-
poorer countries protect the ozone
world countries to help them phase out
chemicals that are destroying the
trial chemicals.
layer.
earth's ozone layer.
But at a Senate Foreign Relations
In a speech at the National Press
The official, Mustafa K. Tolba of
Committee hearing today, Secretary of
Club today, Dr. Tolba called for a ban
Egypt, executive director of the pro-
State James A. Baker 3d reiterated
on the chemicals destroying the ozone
gram, said that if the industrialized
that the Administration preferred to
layer when the nations gather in Lon-
don this month. Under a protocol
countries failed to provide the eco-
use "existing resources" to help the
signed in Montreal in September 1987,
nomic and technical help required by
third-world countries adhere to the
those who agreed to the treaty commit-
the third-world nations, the "global
ozone treaty.
ted themselves to a 50 percent reduc-
bargain" to protect the earth's envi-
Opposition to providing additional
tion in the production and use of the
money to help the third-world countries
chemicals by the end of the century.
phase out the offending chemicals
Since then, new scientific informa-
originated with Richard G. Darman, di-
tion has shown that the destruction of
rector of the Office of Management and
the ozone layer is proceeding even
Budget, and John H. Sununu, the White
more rapidly than previously recog-
House chief of staff, Administration of-
nized. A thinning ozone layer permits
ficials said.
more ultraviolet radiation from the sun
While the American contribution
to penetrate to the earth's surface,
would only be about $20 million, the
causing skin cancer and cataracts in
White House officials reportedly
humans and harming crops and wild-
feared that providing such additional
life.
funds would open the door to broad de-
Dr. Tolba also said today that he ex-
mands by those countries for assist-
pected the international community to
ance in solving their environmental
adopt a treaty "with teeth" to address
problems.
the global-warming problem when it
The Bush Administration wants such
gathers at a conferencë in Brazil two
aid to be provided from existing funds
years from now.
Carbon dioxide, chlorofluorocarbons
and other industrial and agricultural
gases are accumulating in the atmos-
phere and, by trapping radiation from
the sun, will cause the earth to warm
substantially in the next century
through a process called the green-
house effect, many scientists believe.
Despite some lingering skepticism
about the scientific issues surrounding
the greenhouse effect, Dr. Tolba said,
"we are moving toward a truly global
consensus on the need for action and
action now."
Although the Bush Administration
has been stressing the need for more
information about the scientific and
economic implications of a global-
warming treaty, "the United States, I
am sure, will not block unanimity" but
will meet "its responsibilities toward
its own people and the world at large,"
he said.
At the luncheon, which was spon-
sored by the World Resources Insti-
tute, the United Nations official also
emphasized the need for a treaty
through which the nations could coop-
erate to preserve the world's biological
diversity.
22
CONTINUED
The Washington Post
JUN 3 1990
So what does Schelling's game-theoretic perspective
suggest about the global warming debate? The
prospects are not good, says Schelling, if you aim to
prevent it from happening. Any nation that attempts to
mitigate changes in climate through unilateral action
pays the cost alone, he says, while sharing the benefits
with the rest of the world-and the benefits might not
be all that great. If the United States decided to cut its
fossil fuel use by a third over a 20-year span, for
example, at a yearly cost of something like $150 billion
to $200 billion, the result would be a mere 10 percent
decline in the world's carbon dioxide emissions-and
that only if other countries did not increase their
emissions. Much more significant effect could be
accomplished if China, the Soviet Union and the United
States agreed to give up the use of coal, but Schelling
thinks the chances of a global fuel compact are remote
today.
But then he brightens. "What difference does
climate change make, especially if it comes slowly? The
interesting thing is that, to a first approximation, it
isn't going to make any difference, at least to advanced
countries, where there's hardly any economic activity
that's terribly affected by the weather. Of course
agriculture is, but agriculture is only 3 percent of GNP
[gross national product]. So if agriculture costs went
up even by a third, a 1 percent reduction of real
GNP-taking place over the course of a century, a
period in which personal income would probably double
anyhow-would scarcely be noticed. Then if you look
at what it's going to do to human health and human
comfort and recreation, even extinction of species, it's
very hard to identify
"Now this may not be true for developing countries,
where they are much, much more dependent on food
production and where they may have much less margin
for adaptability. This leads me to conclude that the
countries that can afford to do something about
it-maybe Western Europe, the United States, Japan
and a few others-probably won't be able to identify a
powerful national interest, not when it's time to talk
about our president putting a dollar-a-gallon tax on
diesel fuel and gasoline. And the countries where
probably the most might need to be done, like India
and China, the countries that are already very
inefficient consumers of fuel, are probably going to
become bigger and bigger consumers of it. They
probably won't and shouldn't do anything to curb
greenhouse emissions, unless somebody else pays for
it. I think eventually it will get around to that-but it
will take 20 years instead of two years."
David Warsh is a columnist for the Boston Globe.
21
EPA in the New
THE WASHINGTON Posr-
SUNDAY, APRIL 22, 1990 H15
Cleaning Up on the Environment
Pollution Control Provides Investment Possibilities for the '90s
centers. The old plastic bottle was
By Thomas Watterson
made with multiple layers of different
Boston Globe
plastics and adhesives, and there
After all the hoopla about Earth
were almost no facilities to recycle
Day 1990 has faded, some people will
them.
still be cleaning up-if they put their
The third factor, Hyde said, is the
money in the right place.
consumer. The number of consumers
Pollution-control and environmen-
willing to recycle, or even pay a few
tal management will be "the growth
STOCKS
cents more for environmentally
industry of the '90s," said Remy Fish-
friendly packaging, continues to grow.
er, a vice president and analyst with
force in the economy, the payoff from
With these three elements in place,
J.W. Seligman & Co., a New York
some of these stocks could take
Hyde said, "Companies can now justi-
brokerage. While several new "envi-
awhile.
fy spending on more research. The
ronmental" mutual funds have started
Also, publicity about the environ-
corporate, government and consumer
up in recent years-and faced some
ment has pushed up some stocks to
sectors have never before all merged
charges of opportunism-there are
the point where they are a bit over-
at the same time."
indeed good opportunities for inves-
priced now, although that could be
Some of the push for the environ-
tors interested in the environmental
corrected before too long.
mental movement in the United
management industry who want to
"It does require a longer-term ap-
States is coming from Europe, Hyde
buy some of its stocks on their own.
proach," said Elliott Schlang, a vice
said. "There's a huge demand in Eu-
The choices can include companies
president with Prescott, Ball & Tur-
rope, especially Eastern Europe, for
that own and manage landfills, recy-
ben Inc., a Cleveland brokerage. "But
new environmental techniques," he
cling companies, businesses that
we're not talking about fly-by-night
noted. Some East German utilities, he
make air- and water-filtration equip-
companies here."
said, are using 40-year-old plants that
ment for smokestacks and drainage
Schlang follows companies in the
burn brown coal "that's so sulfurous
systems, companies that clean ma-
Great Lakes region for his firm. One
it's outrageous In time, he said,
chinery and tools, and even some of
of his recommendations, Calgon-Car-
there will be new business for compa-
the firms that pick up your garbage.
bon, a Pittsburgh-based manufacturer
nies that sell air- and water-filtration
Stocks generally mentioned favorably
of filtration equipment, has had 11
and monitoring equipment.
by analysts include such well-estab-
years of increasing earnings, he said.
Again, however, this is a long-term
lished companies as Waste Manage-
"You absolutely have to think long
proposition. "Eastern Europe does
ment Inc., Calgon-Carbon Inc.,
term," said David Beckwith, portfolio
have severe pollution," said Vishnu
Wheelabrator Technologies, Safety-
manager of John Hancock Mutual Life
Swarup, a pollution-control analyst at
Kleen Inc., Metcalf & Eddy, Laidlaw
Insurance Co.'s Freedom Environ-
Prudential-Bache Securities. "But
Inc. and Wahlco Systems.
mental Fund. "This is something for
they don't have a lot of funds now."
The stocks are favored because
the '90s and beyond."
In Western Europe, some environ-
spending by corporations and govern-
But several factors that could help
mental-management programs, such
ment on environmental control "is
this industry are coming together
as recycling, incineration, trash-to-en-
definitely going up," Fisher said.
right now, said Geoffrey Hyde, mar-
ergy plants and other efforts, are
"And it's not just solid waste and haz-
keting vice president of Alliance Capi-
moving ahead at a faster pace than
ardous materials. It's medical waste
tal Management in New York. First,
they are in the United States, as is
streams, acid rain, a lot of things."
he said, there is the government fac-
consumer awareness, Hyde said.
With sound fundamentals and a
tor. "We're getting more legislation
Hyde, a native of Britain, got a
consistently high record of growth,
where companies have to respond to
taste of this recently. His children at-
the industry ought to be able to
the law," Hyde said.
-
tend boarding schools in England and
weather any oncoming recession fair-
The second factor is corporate.
they were visiting him in New York.
ly well, analysts believe. "I would say
More companies, Hyde said, now see
"One morning, I came into the bath-
it's one of the recession-resistant
economic benefits in environmental
room and all my spray cans were
businesses," Fisher said.
management, whether it is using re-
gone," he recalled. "They'd thrown
But investors expecting to make a
cyclable boxes and packing material,
them out." Now all his deodorants
quick killing in garbage could be dis-
or changing the containers their prod-
and spray items are either roll-ons,
appointed, analysts say. With long
ucts come in.
sticks or pump bottles.
lead times for regulatory approval,
Recently, for instance, H.J. Heinz
"We like Europe," Beckwith said.
difficulties in overcoming the not-in-
Co. announced that, starting next
His Freedom Fund can invest as
my-back-yard problem and the time it
year, it will put its ketchup in plastic
much as 30 percent of its assets in
IS expected to take for more indus-
bottles made almost entirely of poly-
European stocks, and it is up to that
tries and consumers to make waste
ethylene terephthalate, or PET,
limit, he said. "Europe will have to do
management and recycling a major
which can be recycled through a
a lot of spending on environmental
growing network of PET recycling
cont'd
EPA in the News
cant
obstacles may seem immovable, but
some now predict, temperatures
so did the Berlin wall. With bold lead-
dropped several degrees and what is
ership and a new political "ecolibri-
now New York City was covered by
um," we too shall overcome.
ice one kilometer thick.
But this isn't about temperatures
alone. It's about drastically changing
end
climatic patterns that affect the dis-
tribution of rainfall, the intensity of
storms and droughts and the direc-
tions of prevailing winds and ocean
currents, which in turn dramatically
affect our weather and climate. Some
scientists say the first effects will be
erratic weather patterns with ex-
tremes of heat and cold.
Q.: Isn't it easier to adapt to these
changes than to prevent them?
A.: The changes could occur so
swiftly that effective adaptation
might become virtually impossible.
The longer we wait, the more un-
pleasant our choices become.
We are in fact conducting a mas-
sive, unprecedented - some say
unethical - experiment with conse-
quences for all future generations. As
You're
wrong on
facts and
reasoning.
you make your choice, bear in mind
that you're choosing not only for your
own generation but for your grand-
children as well. And remember too
that our abuse of the environment
could lead to the extinction of more
than half of all species within the life-
times of our children.
Q.: Isn't the cost of preventing this
problem too high?
A.: Many of the solutions, such as
eliminating subsidies for clear-cut-
ting forests, actually save money. In
any event, the costs of inaction are
much higher, even if the skeptics
refuse to measure them.
Q.: The changes you say are
needed are too sweeping to be politi-
cally possible.
A.: What if I had asked you six
months ago to assess the possibility
that people in every country in East-
ern Europe would abandon Commu-
nism, sing "We Shall Overcome" and
embrace democracy within 90 days?
Would you have called that "unlike-
ly?" We all would have. But it hap-
pened because people changed their
way of thinking about Communism.
People are changing their thinking
about the importance of protecting
the global environment. We too are
showing our willingness to act. The
National Governors' Association
Task Force on Global Climate Change
Chairman's Forward
Terry E. Branstad, Governor of Iowa
Although there is considerable uncertainty about the rate,
magnitude, and effects of global climate change, and the costs
of prevention could be substantial, we must take action. For
the sake of future generations, we must take the issue of
global climate change with the upmost seriousness.
Task Force Chairman Gov. James R. Thompson of Illinois
--Goal is developing recommendations for the nation for the
1990s, and illuminating the role that states can play in
addressing the problem of GCC. Met with scientists and
policymakers from several nations and engaged in constructive
dialogue w/ business and environmental leaders.
Meetings in Charlottesville, New York, Sacramento, Washington,
D.C., New Orleans, Burlington
Executive Summary and Statement of Goals
We owe the habitability of our planet to the phenomenon
commonly known as the "greenhouse effect.
EPA and others have predicted that a doubling of atmospheric
carbon dioxide or its equivalent in some combination of
greenhouse gases --- expected by the middle of the next century
--- could raise the earth's average temperature by 3 to 10
degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius). In January,
the National Academy of Sciences estimated that 4 degrees
Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) is the most likely temperature
rise.
Scientific uncertainty and the difficulty in accurately
predicting climate change are compounded by the existing
natural variability of meteorological and biological systems.
Second, the social and economic costs of the measures that
might reduce the threat are not yet well understood, and a
comprehensive assessment of the available options has only
recently begun. Finally, mitigation and adaptation to climate
change is an issue that can be effectively addressed only with
the cooperation of all nations.
Findings:
1. Atmospheric concentrations of greenhous gases are
increasing due to human activities. Over the past 100 years,
atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide have increased by
about 25 percent. Methan is up 140% since the middle of the
19th century.
2. Broad scientific consensus has developed that increasing
the concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases
will increase the atmosphere's heat-trapping ability and warm
the climate to some degree. There is debate and uncertainty,
however, about the magnitude and timing of the warming and the
implications of that warming for the earth's cliamte system,
environment, and economics.
3. Controlling emissions is central to reducing potential
climate change. This should be done through energy policy, and
measures to slow deforestation.
4. States have key role because of authority over utilities,
land-use, transportation, taxation etc.
5. An effective solution to GCC must involved sustained
action by the federal government and the international
community. Developing nations, must be full partners in the
international negotiations.
Economists have estimated that the economic costs for the US
for combatting GCC range from virtually nothing to 5-6 percent
of GNP. Overreaction could have serious effects on the
economic well-being of the nation.
The costs must be compared to the risks associated w/
delay.
Althought the magnitude and timing are uncertain, today's
emissions are likely to "commit" the planet to some degree of
warming. EPA's 1989 report on policy options found that early
governmental response to GCC would result in less severe
problems in the next century. Assuming a policy response
starting in 1990, the severity of the problem could be reduced
by about 40 percent compared to the same policies initiated in
2010.
Goals for U.S. in 1990s
1. Develop an international agreement to protect the
atmosphere.
U.S. reductions in carbon dioxide emissions should not be
offset by a net increase in other countries. We should sponsor
appropriate agreements to assure a coordinated international
approach to the threat of climate change.
2.
Utilize cost-effective energy conservation and efficiency
measures to stabilize U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide.
Between 1973 and 1986, the U.S. economy grew by more than 1/3
w/no significant increases in carbon dioxide due to energy
efficiency. Building, lighting, appliance, and transportation
efficiency measures also can yield substantial reductions in
carbon emissions by reducing the amount of fuel we use.
3.
Stop production of and recycle chlorofluorocarbons, and
use cost-effective strategies to stabilize or reduce other
greenhouse gases.
Amend the Montreal protocols to eliminate the productions
of chlorfluorocarbons and to require that those already in use
be recycled so they are not raised into the environment. We
should stabilize or reduce U.S. emissions of methane, nitrous
oxide, ozone, a nd other greenhouse gases. Methane recovery
from waste should be encouraged. Some methane emissions from
animals can also be reduced.
4. Develop and commercialize alternative energy systems,
including clean fossile, renewable energy sources, and safe
nuclear power.
Push clean fossil technologies, cogeneration, solar energy,
wind power, geothermal energy, biomass fuels,
hydroelectricity, a nd a new generation of safe nuclear power.
5. Implement forestry programs to reduce the effects of global
climate change.
Planting trees, particularly in urban areas, can reduce the
severity of climate change because they take up carbon dioxide
as well as provide shade. Responsible management and
expansion of our existing forest resources can improve the
quality f forest ecosystems, increase our production of wood,
and reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide.
6. Plan and act now to adapt to climate change.
Pay attention to water resources, sea level rise, and
agricultural and forestry practices.
7. Pursue an aggressive research program to reduce key
uncertainties about GCC
The U.S. should support a program of research to better define
the potential magnitude and timing of future climatic changes;
the possible ecological effects fo such changes; and the cost
and effectiveness fo various response options, including
changes in energy sources.
The federal gov't bears a special responsibility for
assisting states or industries that may be adversely affected
by a move to a less energy- and carbon-intensive economy. The
federal gov't must plan for and provide a transition so that
our national goals do not become unreasonable limitations on
exceeding the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for ozone.
Human Health Effects
More negative effects in summer, fuer in winter.
Climate Extreme Changes
Summer heat waves could intensify considerably. But increased
temps may be manifested primarily in the evening.
Meteorological Events
Hurricanes could become more frequent, violent and widespread.
Environmental Refugees
Evacuation of America's Pacific Trust Territories could be
required. Other refugees possible from low-lying countries
Costs of new electric facilities could reach $3 b to $6 b by
2010. Climatic change could add between $33 b and $73 b to
capital costs in this sector by 2055.
Goal One: Develop an International Agreement
To Protect the Atmosphere
* The U.S. should help lead negotiations of an international
framework convention that ensures international cooperation to
protect the atmosphere.
O
Individual protocols or treaties containing specific
commitments from all nations on greenhouse gases, neergy
efficiency, population growth, and other items should be
negotiated as soon as possible.
O
Agreements to stop deforestation of the earth's tropical
belt should be given high priority.
Goal Two: Utilize Cost-Effective Energy Conservation and
Efficiency Measures to Stabilize U.S. Emissions of Carbon Dioxide
Reform the regulation of electric utilities- through least
cost planning and rate design reform
Improve building energy efficiency standars
O
Improve appliance efficiency standars
O
Improve transportation energy efficiency
O
expand state gov't energy efficiency programs.
Electricity currently accounts for 37% of U.S. energy use.
Although total U.S> energy use has risen by less than 7 percent
since 1972, electricity use has increased by 55 percent, and
the growth and development of particular states or industries.
EPA and others have estimated that, at current rates of
emissions, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide will
have doubled from preindustrial levels by around the middle of
the next century.
Problems with modeling: inability to accurately guage the role
of clouds and ocean currents, and the interaction of various
greenhouse and non-greenhouse gases (e.g. sulfur dioxide)
Because these (various) relationships and the overall
sensitivity of the world's climate system are not well
understood, the magnitude of climate change as the result f
doubled carbon dioxide remains subject to considerable
uncertainty.
The timing of any change in global temperature is also highly
uncertain.
Scientists expect that temps will increase more at higher
latitudes than closer to the equator.
EPA's report to Congress The Potential Effects of GCC on the
US, compiles data from numerous studies and analyzes the
results region by region and sector by sector. The numerous
effects described in the report suggest that GCC may be among
the greatest threats humanity has ever faced.
Water Resources
More frequent and severe droughts and floods. Several studies
suggest that mid-continental areas--such as the American
Midwest will become driers.
Other effects could include:
Greater demand for water and decreasing supply
Lower river flows
Earlier winter melts - creating more seasonal flooding
prblms
O
Greater variability in river and lake levels
Decreased water quality.
Agricultural Changes
Increased heat, lower moisture, irrigation pressures, and
expanded pest ranges must be balanced against any potential
improvements in plant growth that result from increased
concentrations of carbon dioxide and longer growing seasons.
EPA studies suggest that:
O
Yields of corn, soybeans, and wheat would probably be
reduced in all but the northernmost U.S.
O
There may be a small to moderate aggreate reduction in
agricultural output. This reduction should not threaten
domestic fod supplies, but could negatively affect world food
supplies and the U.S. trade balance.
O
Farmlands dependent upon natural rainfall could become
less reliable, a dn the demand for irrigated acreage is likely
to increase. This could put stress on regional water demand.
O
Higher temps will probably increase the range and
survivability of agricultural pests.
It is likely that the predicted climate change will push the
southern boundary of sugar maples and many other crops further
northward, causing further economic disruption in northeastern
ag communities.
Sea Level Rise
GCC in the range of most predictions could raise the ocean
level from one and one-half to six feet over present levels by
the year 2100, though recentt estimates suggest the probable
actual increase would be one to two feet. As water warms, its
volume increases.
In the fact of a three-foot sea level rise, EPA estimates it
would cost $73 b to $111 b to protect barrier islands and
developed mainlands through 2100. Financial loss of coastal
industries such as tourism fishing could be much higher.
Increased salinity into coastal waters has already damaged
oyster harvest in Chesapeake Bay and pressured water supplies
in Florida and New Jersey. According to EPA, a three-foot rise
in sea level could eliminate up to 82 percent of continental
U.S. wetlands.
Forests
Climate change could force the southern ranges of many forests
northward by hundreds of miles.
Temperature increases would make forests more susceptible to
fires, pest attacks, and replacement w/low-value trees,
grasslands and shrupes.
Air Quality
As a result of higher temperatures, the formation of ground-
level ozone, would increase in many areas. Acid rain would
also increase in the atmosphere.
EPA estimates that in the Midwest and Southeast, a 7 degree
Fahrenheit temp. increase could triple the number of areas
electric utilities currently account for about one-third of
U.S. carbon dioxide emissions.
States can begin to reconcile shareholder and ratepayer
interests by giving utilities proper incentives to implement
programs that improve the efficient use of energy by all
ratepayer classes. This can ensure that it is as profitable
for utilities to save energy as it is to develop new supplies.
Options include:
O
breaking the link between utility sales and profits so
that utility profits do not fall in lockstep with conservation
and efficiency improvements
O
allowing rate-basing and incentive rates of return for
utility investments in customer conservation measures.
O
encouraging financial incentives in the form of equipment
rebates, low-cost loans, or shared savings arrangements to all
calsses of custoemrs
O
offering energy audits and technical assistance to
homeowners, businesses, and industries.
In partnership with the federal gov't, states should establish
an aggressive model building efficiency code and urge its
adoption and enforcement in all jurisdictions throughout the
country where no such standards exist.
States and the federal gov't could act in concert to build on
the National Applicance Energy Conservation Act and DOE's
recent rules on refrigerators and freezers to implement more
stringent national standards for fluorescentt and incandescent
lamps and fixtures.
Using currently available high-efficiency lighting technology
could cut the amount of electricity used for lighting by 50-
90%.
THE NEW YORK TIMES, TUESDAY, JUNE 5, 1990
U.S. Ivory Market Collapses
After Import Ban
YEAR after the Federal
poaching and smuggling in Africa, as
the world's annual ivory imports.
A
Government banned the im-
had been feared, the report says.
Surveying the 15 largest ivory
portation of ivory from the
"The U.S. market for ivory is
wholesalers here, the conservation
African eiephant, the com-
dead," said Ginette Hemley, director
organization found that dealers have
mercial ivory market in the United
of the Washington-based Traffic USA,
discounted jewelry and simple carv-
States has collapsed, a study by a
a division of the World Wildlife Fund
ings by 40 to 70 percent and have
conservation group has found.
that tracks trade in endangered spe-
found few buyers.
Demand for ivory has plummeted,
cies. In the last decade alone, the
"Clearly, there's a public mood
dragging down the price of products
number of elephants has fallen from
against the trade of ivory," said Mar-
still legally available in this country,
1.3 million to 609,000, primarily be-
shall Jones of the Fish and Wildlife
as well as the price of ivory obtained
cause of poaching in Central and East
Service.
illegally in Africa, according to a
Africa.
There is no evidence "at this time"
draft of the report being released
Before the ban, announced a year
of any organized efforts to smuggle
today by the World Wildlife Fund.
ago today by President Bush, the
ivory into this country, Mr. Jones
Moreover, with demand down, the
United States accounted for 10 to 15
said. Only sanctioned ivory trophies
ban has evidently not spurred more
percent - or about $20 million - of
taken in South Africa and Zimbabwe
"Where once there was only de-
But markets in South Korea, which
spair, there's now some hope," said
is not a party to Cites, and China,
Iain Douglas-Hamilton, who monitors
which is a party but refused to accept
African elephants for the European
the ban, could encourage continued
Community.
poaching. With countries closing their
are allowed into the country.
The bans on imports have cut the
doors to ivory, South Korea imported
The United States ban was followed
price of raw ivory in Africa as much
34.5 tons of worked ivory in 1989, 100
by others throughout the world, in-
as 90 percent, according to the report.
times the 1988 total.
cluding the European Community
"There is really no incentive to smug-
Richard Luxmoore of the World
and Japan. In October, member
gle since there is no longer a de-
Conservation Monitoring Center in
states of the Convention on Interna-
mand," said Michael Sutton, a co-
Cambridge, England, surveyed the
tional Trade of Endangered Species
author of the report.
ivory trade at the March meeting in
(Cites) agreed to an international
Demand has even fallen in some
Paris of the International Union for
ban, which took effect Jan. 18.
Asian countries, the largest import-
the Conservation of Nature.
The World Wildlife Fund's report
ers of African ivory. In Hong Kong,
said initial evidence suggests poach-
which received a six-month exemp-
"The ivory trade is certainly in a
ing has decreased in most African
tion on the Cites ban to allow traders
state of shock," Dr. Luxmoore said in
nations, including Kenya, though
to unload an estimated 570 tons of
a telephone interview, but "the incen-
there have been reports of incidents
stockpiled ivory, wholesale prices
tive for poaching may still be there."
in several countries, and poaching
have fallen 15 to 20 percent, the re-
He said low ivory prices could entice
remains acute in Zaire and Tanzania.
port found.
speculators to snatch up stockpiles.
Bush named a task force last year, headed by Interior Secretary
the Manuel Lujan, to work with the National Academy of Sciences in studying
off environmental impact of opening the three areas to oil leasing -
northern, southern California and the Florida keys.
The task force, in its report to Bush in January, cited a need for
further study on the environmental and socioeconomic ramifications of
new lease sales, sources have said.
The broadest set of options initially placed before the president by
his staff ranged from allowing immediate drilling in the study areas to
permanently barring oil companies from the regions.
Environmentalists have long opposed oil drilling in the three
regions - a .7-million acre section of ocean off Southern California,
million acres
off Northern California, and 13 million acres in the Gulf of Mexico
near the Florida Everglades.
AP-NP-06-04-90
TUESDAY, JUNE 5, 1990
The Washington Times
Pollution picture
brighter, Bush told
By Ronald A. Taylor
gests that Americans in 2010 will re-
creased 48 percent, from 920 billion
spond to environmental problems
vehicle miles traveled in 1970 to 1.31
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
with energy, creativity and a deep-
billion miles in 1987.
Success in controlling pollution
Meanwhile, progress in control-
seated sense of responsibility for fu-
since 1970 has been a mix of "re-
ture generations," CEQ concluded in
ling pollution in coastal waters,
markable improvements" and "slow
its 20th annual progress report.
curbing urban smog and preserving
and painful" progress, but there's
wetlands has been "slow and pain-
plenty of reason for optimism about
"The nation's success at fulfilling
ful," the report concludes.
the environment, the Council on En-
the promise of 1970, as measured by
Among the bad news for coastal
vironmental Quality told President
environmental trends data, has been
waters is a 14 percent increase, to 7.5
Bush yesterday.
mixed," the report said.
million acres, in the shellfish har-
The optimism is fueled by devel-
According to the report, the
vest areas closed due to environmen-
opments since 1970. Since then, eco-
bright spots are improvements in
tal contamination between 1971 and
nomic growth has not necessarily
general air quality - a 96 percent
1985. By 1985, 40 percent of the na-
led to more pollution. Environmen-
decline in lead emissions and a 35
tion's shellfish beds were closed for
tal protection is now a high-ranking
percent reduction in sulfur dioxide,
some or all of the season, the report
goal of both government and corpo-
for instance — and the expansion of
said.
rations, and polluters face tougher
Since 1970, the nation's 99 million
waste-water treatment facilities to
enforcement at all levels of govern-
acres of wetlands those swamps,
ment, council Chairman Michael
127 million Americans, compared
marshes and mudflats where the be-
with 80 million in 1970.
Deland told the president and his
Those achievements coincided
ginnings of the marine food chain
Cabinet yesterday.
with the expansion of the gross na-
spawn are being filled in at a rate
The nation's environmental expe-
of 450,000 acres a year, it noted.
tional product from $2.42 trillion in
rience since Earth Dav 1970 "sug-
1970 to $4.17 trilllion in 1989. Since
Under Bush administration fiscal
1970, the report noted, the number
1991 plans, the panel's budget is to
of cars on the road increased 56 per-
be increased 90 percent to $2.7 mil-
cent, from 89.2 million to 139 million
lion.
in 1989. The amount of driving in-
GOVERNING
APRIL 1990
GLOBAL WARMING:
THE ANSWERS
ARE NOT ALWAYS GLOBAL
Public officials discover the political
payoffs of fighting the 'greenhouse effect.'
By Kathleen Sylvester
S
harpe James is a true believer.
to formulate a national policy based on such uncertain
The mayor of Newark, a large and gritty city
evidence.
blighted by the familiar urban woes of crime, drugs
Many state and local officials, however, are not waiting
and homelessness, says one of the most important things
for a federal policy. They are persuaded by the environ-
he is doing for the people of Newark is trying to reduce
mentalist argument that if they wait until all the evidence
the threat of global warming.
is in, it will be too late. Jeremy Rifkin, president of the
"It's a question of survival," he says. The mayor is not
Washington, D.C.-based Greenhouse Crisis Foundation,
talking about saving the planet. He is talking about saving
puts it this way: "If you knew there was a 10 percent
his city. James says that if Newark is to survive, it must
chance that your home would be blown up, you'd take
become livable.
steps to prevent it. With global warming, there is a better
Like many other state and local officials, James has
than 50 percent chance it will happen."
discovered that the strategies that will mitigate global
Dan Becker, who heads the Sierra Club's Global
warming also make good public policy-and good politics.
Warming and Energy Program, suggests that another
So Newark, New Jersey-big, bad, ugly Newark-has
dynamic is at work, too. "People draw their conclusions
become one of America's most environmentally conscious
about the world from their own experiences," says Becker,
cities. Newark will be the focal point of New Jersey's Earth
"and when needles started washing up on the beach, and
Day activities on April 22 because it is setting the
it was 100 degrees in Phoenix for 145 days in a row,
environmental pace in New Jersey. City officials are
people's intellectual interest in the environment was
enthusiastically doing whatever they can, from banning
suddenly confronted by a reality that they could see and
plastics to recycling to pondering mass transit, in order to
smell." State and local officials are taking that to heart.
reduce the emission of the so-called "greenhouse gases"
Dealing with global warming might at first glance seem
that cause global warming.
to be the province of international and national policy
Global warming is a gradual heating up of the earth's
makers. But a large number of the relevant decisions, such
atmosphere caused by production of these gases, which can
as land use, transportation and energy conservation poli-
accumulate and prevent the escape of solar heat from the
cies, are either made or enforced by state and local
earth's atmosphere. While scientists generally agree that
officials.
global warming is occurring, they are divided about how
In Newark, Sharpe James is not paying a whole lot of
drastically the earth's temperatures will rise and how soon
attention to the scientific debate. What he knows about is
it will happen.
Newark. And what he sees just blocks from City Hall are
Initial predictions included warnings that the changes
abandoned buildings, graffiti-covered walls and vacant lots
in the next 50 years could rearrange weather patterns,
knee-deep in rubble.
flood coastal areas, transform agriculture and disrupt entire
It happens that the same tactics that will mitigate the
economies. As those early predictions have been challenged
effects of global warming are also mitigating those blights
by scientists who suggest that the warming may be much
and making his city of 316,000 a better place to live. While
less severe, the federal government has adopted a wait-and-
homelessness, poverty and AIDS are urgent priorities,
see attitude. President Bush said recently that it is too soon
James insists that "quality of life" issues are no less
CONTINUED
53
GOVERNING
APRIL 1990
CONTINUED
important to the city's survival.
The nerve center of Newark's
environmental effort is a small office
in the city's engineering department,
where Frank Sudol has the responsi-
bility for monitoring city contracts
and reviewing environmental impact
statements. But in his spare time,
Sudol runs a series of programs that
are turning Newark into a model
environmental city. "This is my fun
stuff," he says.
The process works because Sudol
understands where and how global
concerns intersect with local ones,
and he understands how to reduce a
"global" concern to a local political
one. He uses this example: "The
environment, to inner-city folk, is
litter on vacant lots; it's graffiti."
A plastic cup is litter. When it is
produced using one of the chlo-
rofluorocarbon "greenhouse gases,"
it creates something that people don't
want on vacant lots. "It all ties
together," says Sudol, "because if
you ban that kind of packaging, you
eliminate litter and also reduce harm-
ful air emissions."
Newark's city council agreed, and
in February 1989 it approved an
ordinance banning the use of polysty-
rene and polyvinyl chloride in retail
food packaging unless at least 60 percent of the pack-
sions are released into the atmosphere. But recycling
aging is recycled. To make the ban work, Sudol's staff
needed a political strategy too. "In the low-income areas,
blitzed Newark businesses with letters explaining the
it was really kind of tough," admits Sudol, "so we used a
ordinance and placed ads in the local papers. Sudol says
lot of gimmicks." The city sent mailers to all Newark
this public relations campaign was critical in order to make
residents, written in English, Spanish and Portuguese and
the ban self-enforcing. City officials want consumers to
illustrated with simple pictures. The "hook" is that
complain to restaurant owners who use plastic products
participation in the recycling program enters the residents
and to insist on paper grocery bags instead of plastic at
in a contest to win $50 worth of groceries. In a city where
supermarkets.
30 percent of the residents are on public assistance, that is
The plan is working. While polystyrene, better known
a great incentive.
by its most common trade name, Styrofoam, is now made
There is more. "You name it. We do it," says Sudol. The
with a chemical that is less harmful to the environment.
city has an office paper recycling program; a cardboard
the city's ban is still in effect. And only Newark's six
collection program; a collection program for discarded
McDonald's restaurants are sticking with polystyrene,
major appliances, such as refrigerators and stoves; a
because they say their volume is high and paper packaging
compost program for leaves; a waste oil disposal program;
is so much more expensive than polystyrene. For the rest
an automobile battery disposal program; and a program
of the city's 1,700 retail food establishments, it was easier
that turned 17,000 discarded Christmas trees into mulch.
to switch than recycle. At the federal building, the
Newark has even found a way to recycle plastic soda
cafeteria is back to reusable plates and cups; New Jersey
bottles: They are turned into park benches.
Bell has asked employees to bring their own mugs to the
What does all this effort cost? Not that much, says Sudol.
coffee room and reports that it saves $7,000 a year by not
The city will spend about $500,000 of its $301 million
having to supply foam cups; the pizzeria down the street
operating budget this year on its tree-planting program,
from city hall serves up slices on reusable aluminum trays.
but other costs are minimal because most tasks are done
Recycling is another simple way to reduce global
by people already on the city payroll. The bonus, he adds,
warming. In general, it takes less energy to make products
is that the recycling program takes 41 percent of the city's
of recycled materials than to produce them from raw
solid waste from the waste stream and a new local
materials. Because less fuel is used, fewer harmful emis-
recycling industry has added several thousand jobs to the
CONTINUED
54
THE WASHINGTON POST
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 18, 1990
Bush Says More Data
On Warming Needed
U.S. Criticized at Conference
By Michael Weisskopf
Washington Post Staff Writer
President Bush kicked off his much-ballyhooed
White House conference on global warming yester-
day by restating his call for more research before
setting up costly programs to meet what many ex-
perts call mankind's greatest threat.
"What we need are facts," Bush said in opening re-
marks to the two-day meeting.
But several participants at the 17-nation confer-
ence turned the event into a challenge to Bush's go-
slow approach, accusing the administration of ignor-
ing key scientific data and manipulating the confer-
ence to obscure European arguments for aggressive
measures to combat rising world temperatures.
"We have the feeling we were invited just to lis-
ten," said Brice Lalonde, the French environmental
minister.
"There is sense in Europe that the Americans are
falling behind on this, and that the time for action
has come," said Jorgen Henningsen, an environmen-
tal director at the Commission of European Commu-
nities. "But the Americans are primarily concerned
about having their point of view forwarded to the
BY RICH LIPSKI-THE WASHINGTON POST
"What we need are facts," Bush said at opening of
public here."
conference, attended by delegates from 17 countries.
See CONFERENCE, A23, Col. 1
GOING GREEN
Bush Calls for More Data on Warming
CONFERENCE. From A1
Some delegates were especially angry that they were
OBA
CH
not given an opportunity to share their judgments and
plans at public sessions. Usually governments are pro-
vided a forum for opening statements to set out national
objectives. But the agenda, prepared by the White
House, is all but monopolized by administration officials.
Sources close to the White House said aides to Chief
of Staff John H. Sununu had structured the conference
that way to mute opposition to Bush's stance, which
Sununu was instrumental in formulating.
D. Allan Bromley, the president's science adviser and
cochairman of the conference, said delegates will have
ample time in closed working sessions to present their
views.
The conference, billed as the first to integrate sci-
PRESIDENT The CHE UNITED
entific and economic aspects of global warming, grew
BY
RICH
LIPSKI-THE
WASHINGTON
POST
out of a 1988 campaign pledge by Bush to use the
Bush emphasized scientific differences on global warming.
"White House effect" to curb the "greenhouse effect,"
which is said to occur when industrial gases blanket the
affirming the range of 3 to 8 degrees with "substantial
Earth and trap solar heat.
confidence."
"The agenda will be clear," Bush promised at the
time. "We will talk about global warming and we
Yesterday the president continued to emphasize sci-
will act."
entific differences, citing a recent television interview
But Bush has assumed a cautious stance in office,
in which scientists disagreed on the extent of temper-
bowing to advisers who view global warming as a sci-
ature change. "Two scientists, two diametrically op-
entific fad and see proposals to curb greenhouse gases,
posed points of view," Bush said. "Now where does that
created by the burning of coal and oil, as potentially ru-
leave us?"
inous to the U.S. industrial base.
Noting his proposal for a 60 percent increase in spend-
Although he supports a United Nations-sponsored
ing for climate change research, Bush called for further
panel considering an international convention on global
study to "advance the scientific understanding we need if
warming, Bush has backed away from plans by some
we are to make decisions" on remedial action.
European nations to freeze or cut emissions of carbon
His brief remarks were greeted by polite applause,
dioxide-the primary greenhouse gas-by early next
after which European delegates quickly headed for the
century. Instead, he publicly questions the scientific
lobby with critical comments for reporters. Govern-
certainty of global warming, even avoiding use of the
ments of the Netherlands, West Germany, France and
popular term in favor of the more innocuous "climate
the Nordic nations already have plans for concrete ac-
change."
tion to stabilize or cut back emissions of carbon dioxide.
Few scientists doubt that steady increases in carbon
"The country with the highest carbon dioxide emis-
dioxide emissions will raise world temperatures as they
sions is the most reluctant to take precautionary ac-
have since industrialization. The question is how much,
tion," Pier Vellinga, director of the Dutch National Cli-
with most estimates ranging from 3 to 8 degrees by the
mate Program, said of the United States.
middle of next century.
German environmental minister Klaus Topfer said
A scientific team assigned by the U.N. panel to sort
"gaps in information should not be used as an excuse for
out the uncertainties issued a draft report last month
worldwide inaction."
ADDITIONAL CLIPS WILL BE AVAILABLE IN FRIDAY'S CLIPS LIST:
Indians Peyote Religious Rites
Clean Air - Global Warming - Acid Rain
Environment - Earth Day
McDonald's/Recycling Oil & Gas Issues - Other Clips On DOI Issues
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
June 22, 1990
MEMORANDUM FOR ED GOLDSTEIN
FROM:
ADAM ISLES
SUBJECT:
State Governors' Energy Efficiency Report
Goal 2. The governors want the Federal government to increase
the corporate average fuel economy beyond the 27.5 miles per
gallon; they also urge the Federal government encourage
transportation modes such as electric-powered subways and
railroads, since they release less carbon dioxide. They also
supported increased emphasis in telecommuting and ride sharing
initiatives. The governors called for the U.S. to encourage and
provide more financial support for these programs.
Goal 3. The governors, citing evidence of CFC-related damage
to the ozone layer, called on the Federal Government to call
for an international agreement to phase out CFCs at the
earliest possible date and to recapture and recycle those in
use. They also suggested recovering more methane for energy
use, reducing animal production of methane, and encouraging the
production of more efficient and environmentally sensitive
fertilizers.
Goal 4. DOE studies suggest that a more efficient use of
renewable energy sources, such a hydropower, could displace 18
percent of CO2 emissions in 2010. More specifically, they
suggested using such new technologies such as pressurized
fluidized bed combustion and integrated gasification combined
cycle technologies to improve coal production, promoting
cogeneration of electricity and heat, encouraging the use of
solar energy (which can now provide baseload electricity to the
power grid and will be able to supply transportation fuel
through hydrogen production in the future), utilizing wind
power which currently displaces 304,000 tons of carbon
annually, utilizing geothermal energy, developing biomass
(plant and wood-product) fuels, improving the efficiency of
hydroelectric plants, and developing a new generation of safe
nuclear power.
Goal 5: Implement Forestry Programs to Reduce the Effects of
Global Climate Change. This goal can be accomplished by using
existing conservation programs like CRP and more efficent trees
to offset new CO2 emissions, improving forest management, and
planting trees, especially in urban areas.
Goal 6: plan and act now to adapt to a changing climate. The
-2-
plan advises the Federal Government to strengthen coastal zone
management programs, to develop appropriate land-use plans, to
develop appropriate protective infrastructure (i.e., levies,
dams), and to take steps to prepare for agriculture under
conditions very different from those most farmers have
experienced, such as migration of the climate zone northward,
changes in plant and animal pests and diseases. The governors
call for strengthening agricultural research and planning, for
improving the conservation of soil and water, and for
encouraging greater diversity and flexibility in farming
systems.
Goal 7: pursue an aggressive research program to reduce key
uncertainties about global climate change. The governors call
for an aggressive pursual of the U.S. Global Change Research
Program.
The Dallas Morning News
APR 19 1990
U.S. bungle angers
others at warming
threat conference
By Anne Reifenberg
Bromley, also issued an apology,
Washington Bureau of The Dallas Morning News
characterizing the statement's is-
WASHINGTON - A White House
suance as "a mistake."
effort to control an international
Mr. Flynn, who complained that
conference it sponsored on global
"we're not here to be preached to by
warming backfired Wednesday
the Americans," and others said the
when delegates rebelled and U.S. of-
statement drafted by the White
ficials apologized for issuing a state-
House did not reflect the nature of
ment claiming consensus on the
the discussions taking place at the
need for caution.
conference or the positions of the
The statement - circulated as
countries participating in them.
delegates were meeting in work-
Many European nations have
through the uncertainty of both the
shops in which they were to be de-
called for significant worldwide re-
science and the economics of cli-
bating the warming threat and the
ductions in carbon dioxide and the
mate change.
economic costs of fighting it - said
other "greenhouse" gases whose
"But there is one area where we
the 18 nations represented agreed
unchecked accumulation in the at-
will allow for no uncertainty and
that "gaps in scientific and eco-
mosphere could cause disastrous
that is our commitment to action, to
nomic understanding" limited
climate disruptions, coastal flood-
sound analysis and sound policies,"
their ability to set policy.
ing and drought.
he said. "Above all, the climate
Padraig Flynn of Ireland, presi-
The United States has taken the
change debate is not about 're-
dent of the European Community
position that too little is yet known
search versus action'.
To those
Environmental Council, was among
about both the science of the global
who suggest we're only trying to
those who angrily rejected the
warming theory and the economic
balance economic growth and envi-
statement and confronted U.S. Envi-
consequences of acting to avert it.
ronmental protection, I say they
ronmental Protection Agency Ad-
In keeping with that theme, Pres-
miss the point. We are calling for an
ministrator William Reilly at one of
ident Bush opened the conference
entirely new way of thinking, to
the closed-door workshops.
Tuesday with a speech outlining
achieve both."
"It looked like my working group
the circumspect U.S. position and
After Mr. Bush's speech, Ire-
was going to explode," Mr. Reilly
calling for more research.
land's Mr. Flynn said: "We came
told reporters later.
In a second speech Wednesday,
here to find common ground and
Other groups also revolted, and
he sought to assure delegates that
we've found common ground -
Dutch delegate Pier Vellinga called
he has "never considered research
that research and action are in-
it "embarrassing" when U.S. Energy
a substitute for action."
separable."
Secretary James Watkins had to
Mr. Bush declared that the
apologize to his group. President
United States is "leading the search
The Associated Press and Reuters
Bush's science adviser, D. Allan
for response strategies and working
contributed to this report.
13
The Dallas Morning News
APR
19
1990
House Democrats' plan could threaten
By Anne Reifenberg
gress in the end gave the program
Washington Bureau of The Dallas Morning News
$225 million for fiscal 1990, only $25
million less than initially sought.
collider
WASHINGTON - House Demo-
But Mr. Wright resigned last
crats recommended on Wednesday
summer. And the collider's ultimate
But Mr. Bryant said that without
that science programs receive $60
price tag has jumped by more than
a Texan in the powerful speaker's
million less next year than sought
$2 billion, with critics beginning to
chair, the 29-member Texas con-
by President Bush, igniting fears
question the feasibility of some of
gressional delegation would find it
that the Superconducting Super
its most important components.
more difficult to defend "a rather
Collider would bear the brunt of
Texans said Mr. Wright's ab-
esoteric scientific project
that
the cut.
sence would be felt in the fight to
other states wanted in the first
The proposed fiscal 1991 budget
secure the $318 million sought for
place."
blueprint, drafted by House Budget
the collider for the fiscal year be-
Texas beat six other states in an
Committee chairman Leon Panetta,
ginning Oct. 1.
intense 1988 competition to win the
D-Calif., and other party leaders,
"I don't think there is any ques-
collider project and the huge reve-
calls for $1.214 billion to be spent on
tion that we are missing the leader-
nue and thousands of jobs it would
U.S. Department of Energy science
ship we had a year ago," said Rep.
carry with it.
endeavors.
Jim Chapman, D-Sulphur Springs.
Project foes in the House never
The Bush administration has
The depth of collider support
complain about its Ellis County lo-
asked for $1.274 billion.
will be put to its first test of 1990
cation when arguing against its
"I believe that any cut in general
next week, when the full House is to
construction. But Henry Gandy, a
science is going to go 2-to-1 against
collider lobbyist and former direc-
consider a bill that would for the
first time authorize the project as
tor of the Texas Office of State-Fed-
the collider," said Rep. John
Bryant, D-Dallas, a member of the
an individual federal program. It
eral Relations, said he suspected
budget panel. "There is just no con-
also would limit federal spending
"some Texas bashing" was behind
the opposition.
stituency on the committee for
for the project to $5 billion, leaving
Mr. Bryant went further.
Texas projects this year."
the other $3 billion to be picked by
"The reality is that there is a
But Mr. Bryant added that he
the state of Texas, foreign nations
had spoken with Mr. Panetta and
and other non-federal sources.
very negative view toward Texas
projects," he said. "It is prudent for
was "hopeful" that the chairman
The House Rules Committee de-
would decide to beef up the science
cided Wednesday to allow unlim-
us to view it as a serious danger.
funding category - perhaps by as
ited amendments to be introduced
We'll have a difficult time with-
much as $40 million, bringing it to
on the floor, and observers said
out Jim Wright as speaker fending
off this anti-Texas sentiment."
they expected as many as a dozen
$1.254 billion - when he makes his
some of them aimed at killing the
The fiscal 1991 budget plan rec-
official presentation to his commit-
ommended by the Democrats on
tee Thursday.
project and others at delaying its
construction for so long that the ef-
Wednesday would set Energy De-
"Our goal has been to kick gen-
fect would be the same.
partment science spending at $1.214
eral science funding up high
"We've got to win the vote on
billion in the annual budget resolu-
enough to guarantee keeping the
this bill," Deputy Energy Secretary
tion adopted by Congress. The reso-
Super Collider (appropriation for
Henson Moore told scientists and
lution serves as a general guide for
fiscal year 1991) above $300 mil-
congressional staff members who
congressional authorizing and ap-
lion," Mr. Bryant said.
propriating committees.It is not
attended a collider pep rally orga-
He and other lawmakers from
binding.
nized Wednesday by the SSC Coali-
Texas, where the $8 billion collider
tion, an industry lobbying group.
But a resolution making a $60
would be built, said they believed
"If we win this vote, it will have
million cut to the president's re-
that the project's budget was ripe
quest for science programs could
a very telling effect on
for slashing and that a move by the
send committees with collider over-
appropriations.
We need $318
committee to shrink science fund-
million. Anything less than that
sight a message that project sup-
ing substantially would hurt it
porters would rather they not
will cause problems."
receive.
more than any other program.
Trouble was brewing for the col-
Rep. Martin Frost, D-Dallas, a
"The collider is not getting
lider a year ago when the House be-
member of the rules panel, said the
killed, but this (cut) would place it
gan to get serious about its annual
authorizing bill had strong bipar-
in a tough spot," said a congres-
budget-writing chores. Then-
tisan support and would pass "by a
sional aide involved in the budget-
Speaker Jim Wright of Fort Worth
wide margin." If it does pass, col-
writing process.
lider supporters said, the word
jumped into the fray to shield the
"It's very serious."
project from fatal attacks, and Con-
would be out that the House is truly
committed to building the collider.
Staff writer Chris Jensen contrib-
uted to this report.
14
Michigan
ERIM
Environmental Research Institute of
U.S.DEPARTN MENT OF COMMERCE
Administration
NISTRATION
NATIONAL
National Oceanic and Atmospheric
ANIC AND NOAA ATMOSPHERIC ADM
Administration
National Aeronautics and Space
VSVN
A Conference Sponsored by the:
Washington, D.C.
National Press Club
ANNOUNCEMENT & CALL FOR PAPERS
Fall Conference . October 23-24, 1990
Earth Observations & Global Change Decision Making: A National Partnership
NASA
NATIONAL OCEANIC AND NOAA ATMOSPHERIC INSTRATION
ERIM
NON-PROFIT
ORGANIZATION
US DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
U.S. POSTAGE
P A I D
PERMIT NO. 148
Earth Observations & Global Change
ANN ARBOR, MI
Decision Making: A National Partnership
P.O. Box 8618, Ann Arbor, MI 48107-8618
Sessions
Tuesday, October 23, 1990
Master of Ceremonies:
National Geographic Society
Mr. Noel R. Grove, Senior Assistant Editor for
Dr. Lennard A. Fisk, Associate Administrator, Office
Environment
of Space Science and Applications, NASA
7:00 Registration and Continental Breakfast
Dr. John Knauss, Undersecretary of Commerce for
There will be no seating from 8:15 a.m. until the
Oceans and Atmosphere, U.S. Department of
completion of the President's address.
Commerce
8:15 Welcome-Dr. William M. Brown, President,
Environmental Research Institute of Michigan
Mr. John Swihart, President, American Institute of
Aeronautics and Astronautics Inc.; President, National
"Global Change: The Challenge"-
Center for Advanced Technology
Payson R. Stevens presents his multimedia
production
U.S. Senate Member (To be announced)
Conference Overview-Mr. Noel Grove,
Papers submitted for publication in association with this
Senior Assistant Editor for Environment, National
session should address related matters, such as proposed
Geographic Magazine
enhancements to the missions.
9:00 Keynote Address-President George Bush
(Invited)
12:00 Lunch (JW Marriott Hotel, Capitol
9:45 U.S. Strategy for Global Change Research-
Ballroom). "Mission to Planet Earth-A
Dr. Dallas L. Peck, Chairman, Committee on
Senate Perspective"
Earth and Environmental Sciences; Director,
Luncheon Speaker:
United States Geological Survey
U.S. Senate Member (To be announced)
10:15 Break
10:30 Session 1: Mission to Planet Earth-
National Partners
2:00 Session 2: Mission to Planet Earth-
International Partners
Space-based and ground-based measurements are
crucial to the success of the U.S. Global Change
International cooperation and collaboration are essen-
Research Program (GCRP), which calls for an integrated,
tial to increasing our knowledge of global change. This
comprehensive, and global approach to monitoring the
session will be devoted to discussing the international
earth system. This first in a series of three consecutive
space-based earth measurement programs, how they
sessions designed to explore the U.S. and international
relate to the U.S. component, and how future research
earth observation programs will focus on the U.S.
plans fit into an evolving international global change
space-based contribution to Mission to Planet Earth.
program. International space agency representatives
will address the status of and plans for their participa-
As the cornerstone of the U.S.-initiated international
tion in Mission to Planet Earth, as well as other global
program, the NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) and
change research missions and operational missions.
Earth Probes, along with the NOAA Operational
Satellites, will be the main discussion topics of this
Moderator:
session. Speakers will provide detailed mission descrip-
Dr. John McElroy, Dean, College of Engineering,
tions, highlight the planning and status of the proposed
University of Texas, Arlington
FY 1991 budget initiatives, and discuss how these
Panelists will include:
programs relate to other planned earth science
missions.
Mr. Phillip Goldsmith, Director, Observation of the
Moderator:
Earth and its Environment, European Space Agency
Mr. James R. Asker, Space Technology Editor,
(Invited)
Aviation Week & Space Technology
Dr. Larkin Kerwin, President, Canadian Space
Panelists will include:
Agency
Dr. Francis Bretherton, Director, Space Science &
Academician Guriy Ivanovich Marchuk,
Engineering Center, University of Wisconsin
President, Academy of Sciences, U.S.S.R. (Invited)
Dr. Robert Corell, Vice Chairman, Committee on
Mr. Thomas Pyke, Jr., Assistant Administrator for
Earth and Environmental Sciences; Assistant Director,
Satellite and Information Services, NOAA/NESDIS
Geosciences Directorate, National Science Foundation
Dr. John McElroy, Dean, College of Engineering,
Papers submitted for publication in association with this
session should address such issues as anticipated eco-
University of Texas, Arlington
nomic impacts and the data and information needed to
Dr. Roger B. Porter, Assistant to the President for
predict them; sample studies; current technical obstacles;
Economic and Domestic Policy (Invited)
evaluation of models; special requirements of developing
Papers submitted for publication in association with this
countries; and means to coordinate business, government,
session should address such issues as information needs
and international views of global change.
of the policy community; proposed mechanisms to reach
national or international consensus on policy issues; the
12:15 Lunch (JW Marriott Hotel, Capitol
degree of certainty required to implement policy changes;
Ballroom). "Mission to Planet Earth-
history of sample policy proposals, especially those which
A House Perspective"
illuminate the decision-making process; and means of
interaction between the policy and scientific communities.
Luncheon Speaker:
The Honorable Robert Traxler (D-MI), U.S. House
of Representatives; Chair, House Subcommittee on VA,
3:30 Break
HUD, and Independent Agencies, Committee on
3:40 Session 7: Building a National Partnership-
Getting Our Act Together
Appropriations
This panel, composed of selected members from previ-
2:00 Session 6: Policy Response to Global
ous panels, will address the actions required to develop
Environmental Change: A Socratic Dialogue
an integrated plan of action. The moderator will
Over the past several years many ideas have emerged
summarize conclusions on various issues identified in
on what mankind can do to halt or reverse the degrada-
preceding sessions. Audience questions not already
tion of Earth's environment. Some ideas have become
addressed will be presented and discussed by the panel.
policies; some policies have become law.
Moderator:
Based upon challenging hypothetical situations posed by
Ms. Judy Woodruff, Chief Washington Correspon-
the moderator, this session will focus on the critical issues
dent, MacNeil/Lehrer Report (Invited)
and actual processes involved in making such policy
decisions. Topics will include developments within the
Panelists will include:
United States, within other nations, and globally; poli-
Dr. Frederick Bernthal, Chairman, Working Group
cies proposed or under consideration; and anticipated
III on Response Strategies, Intergovernmental Panel on
developments in the year ahead.
Climate Change; Deputy Director, National Science
Moderator:
Foundation
To be announced
Dr. John A. Dutton, Dean, College of Earth and
Mineral Sciences, Pennsylvania State University
Panelists will include:
Ms. Joan Barvaria, Social Investment Forum
The Honorable Jake Garn (R-UT), U.S. Senate;
Dr. Frederick Bernthal, Chairman, Working Group III
Appropriations Subcommittee on VA, HUD, and Inde-
on Response Strategies, Intergovernmental Panel on
pendent Agencies (Invited)
Climate Change; Deputy Director, National Science
Mr. Russell Koffler, Deputy Assistant Administrator
for Satellite and Information Services, NOAA/NESDIS
Foundation
The Honorable Pierre R. DuPont IV, Richards,
Mr. Donald R. Lesh, President, Global Tomorrow
Layton, & Finger (Invited)
Coalition
Mr. Gregg Easterbrook, Contributing Editor,
Dr. Roger B. Porter, Assistant to the President for
Economic and Domestic Policy (Invited)
Newsweek magazine
Mr. Thomas Finnigan, Vice Chairman, Global
Mr. Robert C. Stempel, Chairman and Chief Execu-
Climate Coalition; Assistant Director of Federal Affairs,
tive Officer, General Motors Corporation (Invited)
Union Carbide, Inc.
Dr. Shelby G. Tilford, Director, Earth Science and
The Honorable Bill Green (R-NY), U.S. House of
Applications Division, Office of Space Science and
Representatives; House Subcommittee on VA, HUD, and
Applications, NASA
Independent Agencies, Committee on Appropriations
(Invited)
5:00 Adjourn
Mr. Donald R. Lesh, President, Global Tomorrow
Coalition
Sessions
Wednesday, October 24, 1990
Masters of Ceremonies:
Smithsonian Institution
Dr. Thomas E. Lovejoy, Assistant Secretary for
Dr. Gregory Withee, Chairman, Task Group on
External Affairs
Earth Systems Measurements and Data Management,
Dr. Michael H. Robinson, Director of National
Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences;
Zoological Park
Director, National Oceanographic Data Center, NOAA
7:45 Registration and Continental Breakfast
Papers submitted for publication in association with this
session should address such issues as defining national
8:30 Welcome Remarks-Dr. Thomas E. Lovejoy,
and international data policies; understanding the Global
Assistant Secretary for External Affairs, Smithsonian
Change Research Program data and information system
Institution
requirements; data availability to industry, developing
8:45 Keynote Address-Dr. D. Allan Bromley,
countries, and others; standardization, emphasizing an
Assistant to the President for Science and
evolutionary approach which addresses the need to
Technology
incorporate advances in technology and to respond to
9:15 Session 4: Data Policy and Availability
changing requirements and policy; development of new
hardware, software, data sources, models, etc.; and
Success in the U.S. Global Change Research Program
approaches for coordinating international and interdisci-
requires that data be acquired, analyzed, and synthe-
plinary data requirements.
sized from an evolving international array of scientific,
operational, and commercial satellite sensors, in situ
10:30 Break
measurements, historical data, conventional data,
10:45 Session 5: Economics of Global
model outputs, etc. This vast quantity of information
must be managed, safeguarded, standardized, and
Environmental Change
made available in a wide variety of compatible media
Global environmental change and the actions taken in
and formats. The challenge of this task will require
response to it will have profound economic effects. But
extensions of and changes in current policy as well as
unless the impacts associated with global change are
major implementation efforts. This session will focus on
understood, quantified, and predicted, it will be difficult
defining these problems and discussing initiatives
to make wise choices in regard to mitigation and
underway to address these concerns.
adaptation strategies. Earth observations leading to a
Moderator:
predictive capability are the foundation of rational
decision making. Key to addressing potential social and
Dr. John A. Dutton, Dean, College of Earth and
economic effects are the activities and initiatives of
Mineral Sciences, Pennsylvania State University
industry, public interest groups, the EPA, and DOE.
Panelists will include:
Moderator:
Dr. Dixon Butler, Chief, Advanced Mission and
To be announced
Interdisciplinary Branch, Earth Science and Applications
Panelists will include:
Division, NASA
Dr. Sharon L. Camp, Vice President, Population
Dr. Graham Harris, Director, CSIRO Office of Space
Crisis Committee
Science & Applications, Australia (Invited)
Academician Yuri Izrael, Chairman, Working
Mr. Shoichiro Katayama, Director for Earth Science
Group II on Impacts, Intergovernmental Panel on
and Technology, Research and Development Bureau,
Climate Change; U.S.S.R. State Committee for
Science and Technology Agency, Japan (Invited)
Hydrometeorology (Invited)
Dr. S. Ichtiaque Rasool, Chairman, Data and
Mr. Mark L. Kerrigan, Principal Associate Deputy
Information Systems, International Geosphere-Biosphere
Undersecretary for the Office of Policy, Planning, and
Program; Chief Scientist for Global Change, Office of
Analysis, Department of Energy
Space Science and Applications, NASA
Dr. Michael McCloskey, Chairman, Sierra Club
Dr. Mark Settle, Chairman, The GEOSAT Committee,
Inc.; Manager, Integrated Exploration Research, Explo-
Mr. Robert A. Mosbacher, Secretary, Department
of Commerce (Invited)
ration Research Group, ARCO Oil & Gas Company
Mr. Allen Watkins, Chief, EROS Data Center, U.S.
Mr. Robert C. Stempel, Chairman and Chief Execu-
Geological Survey, Department of Interior
tive Officer, General Motors Corporation (Invited)
Representative, Environmental Protection Agency
Mr. Tasuku Tanaka, Director, Earth Observation
Dr. Ronald W. Roskens, Administrator, Agency for
Program Office, National Space Development Agency,
International Development, Department of State (Invited)
Japan
Papers submitted for publication in association with this
session should address such issues as means to combine
Dr. Shelby G. Tilford, Director, Earth Science and
data from earth-based and satellite observations; the
Applications Division, Office of Space Science and
proper balance between remote sensing and in situ
Applications, NASA
observations; proposals to augment the terrestrial compo-
Papers submitted for publication in association with this
nent; means to involve developing countries in this
session should address issues such as proposed enhance-
research; and the status of and plans for other earth-
ments to these international initiatives, means to promote
based components.
further international collaboration, and means to ensure
international awareness of EOS and its results.
5:00 Adjourn
7:30 Evening Program-A Celebration of Planet
3:15 Break
Earth (National Air and Space Museum)
3:30 Session 3: Earth-Based Observations-
Welcome and Introductions by ERIM and
U.S. Initiatives
Smithsonian
While the space segment of the Global Change Research
Special Guest Speaker
Program has garnered much attention, in situ observa-
IMAX screening at the Samuel P. Langley Theater.
tions and research are also essential to the understanding
of global change-both to calibrate and validate space
Reception and dinner (co-sponsored by ERIM and the
observations and to measure parameters not accessible
National Air and Space Museum). Music provided by
or suitable to satellite remote sensing. The President's FY
members of the Washington Symphony Orchestra.
1991 budget reflects this requirement with a number of
Bus transportation provided from the conference hotels.
new starts and program budget increases in this area.
Session panelists will discuss these new starts and their
critical contributions to understanding global change.
Specific topics include: What is the significance of this
new research initiative? How does it fit into the overall
program from both a technical and programmatic
perspective? What are the future plans for these
programs?
Moderator:
Ms. Barbara Pyle, Vice President, Environmental
Policy, Turner Broadcasting Systems, Inc.
Panelists will include:
Dr. Gary Evans, Special Assistant for Global Change
Issues, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Science and
Education, U.S. Department of Agriculture
Dr. J. Michael Hall, Director, Office of Climatic and
Atmospheric Research, NOAA
Dr. W. Franklin Harris, Executive Officer, Biological,
Behavioral, and Social Sciences, National Science
Foundation
Dr. Allen Hecht, Deputy Assistant Administrator, Office
of International Activities, Environmental Protection
Agency
Dr. Aristides A.N. Patrinos, Program Manager,
Carbon Dioxide Research Program, U.S. Department of
Energy
Location
adjoining JW Marriott Hotel. The reception and buffet
The conference will be held at the National Press Club,
dinner (co-sponsored by ERIM and the National Air and
located in the National Press Building at 14th and F
Space Museum) is scheduled for 7:30 p.m., October 23,
Streets, NW, in downtown Washington, DC.
at the National Air and Space Museum.
Hotels
Registration
Rooms have been reserved at The Hotel Washington,
To register, please return the attached form by mail or
overlooking the White House just one block from the
fax. Due to the Press Club's limited seating, attendance
Press Club, at the special rate of $130 (single) and $145
will be strictly limited to 500 participants.
(double). A few rooms are also reserved at the conven-
ient JW Marriott Hotel adjoining the Press Club at the
The $390 (U.S.) registration fee guarantees seating at all
rate of $180 (single) or $190 (double) and at the Days
sessions, continental breakfast and refreshments for the
Inn Downtown, a 15-20 minute walk to the Press Club,
two days, one ticket to each day's luncheon at the JW
for $65. To qualify for these special rates, contact the
Marriott Hotel, one ticket to the evening buffet recep-
Hotel Washington at (800) 424-9540, the JW Marriott
tion at the National Air and Space Museum, and one
Hotel at (800) 228-9290, or the Days Inn at (800) 562-
copy of the full conference proceedings. Additional
3350 before October 1, 1990, and identify yourself
tickets to the luncheons and reception can be pur-
with the conference code ERIM.
chased.
Special Airfares
Cancellations/Refunds
Northwest is offering attendees a 45% discount off
ERIM will refund the full registration fee upon receiving
normal coach fare or 5% off any published fare in effect
a written request before October 1, 1990, or when the
when tickets are purchased. To obtain this discount, call
Press Club seating limit is reached.
Northwest meeting services at (800) 328-1111 or have
your travel agency contact Northwest; refer to file
Proceedings
number 05031.
The conference proceedings will provide a permanent
record of the meeting. One copy of the proceedings is
Social Activities
included with each registration. Additional copies of
Guests of registered participants are invited to join in
these proceedings and copies of the 1989 conference
refreshments and informal social activities in the confer-
proceedings can be ordered from Krieger Publishing,
ence hospitality room each morning. The luncheons
P.O. Box 9542, Melbourne, FL 32902-9542, Tele-
and the guest hospitality room will be located in the
phone: (407) 724-9542, Fax: (407) 951-3671.
Earth Observations & Global Change Decision Making: A National Partnership Advance Registration Form
Fall Conference October 23-24, 1990
National Press Club
Name:
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$390 Full Registration (Includes Proceedings, Luncheon,
Organization:
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Continental Breakfast and Refreshments)
Title:
$25 Guest Luncheon Ticket, Tuesday (Oct. 23)
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City:
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Mail fee and form to:
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Nancy J. Wallman
Phone: (313) 994-1200 ext. 3234
P.O. Box 8618
Fax:
(313) 994-5123
Ann Arbor, MI 48107-8618 USA Telex: 4940991 ERIMARB
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Earth Observations & Global Change Decision Making: A National Partnership
Fall Conference
October 23-24, 1990
"Let us remember as we chase our dreams into the stars that
our first responsibility is to our Earth, to our children, to
ourselves. Yes, let us dream, let us pursue those dreams, but
let us also preserve the fragile world we inhabit."
Presidential Greeting to 1989 Global Change Conference
Photo by David Valdez
Global climate has changed dramatically
standing the earth) developed goals, an imple-
throughout humanity's evolution. Yet, while
mentation strategy, and a research budget for the
human impact on the natural world has slowly
U.S. Global Change Research Program. The CES
accumulated over centuries, historically climatic
report, Our Changing Planet: The FY 1991 U.S.
changes have been almost entirely of natural
Global Change Research Program, presents an
origin. In the future, changes may well be attrib-
excellent foundation for establishing the crucial
uted directly to human causes.
Federal research program element of a national
Recently it has become clear that human altera-
global change program.
tion of the earth is occurring with unprecedented
Because the national global change effort must
rapidity. Continuation of these trends may lead to
involve many participants beyond the Federal
global climatic conditions well outside the range
Government, communication of the Federal strat-
experienced in recent history. Indeed, some ex-
egy to a national and international audience is
perts have stated that climatic effects are already
imperative to the success of the U.S. Global
observable.
Change Research Program. The Federal earth
The magnitude of the potential impacts on
observation community, the research community,
climate and the entire earth system has led to calls
educators, the media, the industrial sector, public
for changes in policy and for an enhanced re-
interest groups, and policy makers at all levels must
search program to serve as the foundation for
work as a team to effect any significant change on
national and international policy discussions.
a global scale.
Satellite earth observations and the development
of a concomitant scientific data and information
system are critical to establishing that research
base, as well as to setting the parameters of the
discussion and providing the opportunity for
sound policy making.
In 1987 the presidential science advisor estab-
lished the Committee on Earth Sciences (CES) to
develop a coordinated national research strategy
to address these concerns. Early in 1989 the CES
(composed of senior representatives from each
Federal agency involved in monitoring and under-
Earth Observations & Global Change Decision Making: A National Partnership
Fall Conference
October 23-24, 1990
Data from NASA's Nimbus-7 Coastal Zone Color Scanner and the NOAA-7 Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer were combined to create this image of the
global biosphere. Color codes represent phytoplankton pigment concentrations in the ocean and vegetation patterns on land. (Image courtesy of NASA
Goddard Space Flight Center.)
Purpose
Panel Sessions
In a pivotal decade for the U.S. Global Change Research
Presentations and panel sessions that include high-
Program, this unique conference is intended to help
ranking elected officials, senior-level administrators, and
build a national partnership for earth observations and
private sector representatives are being organized to
global change decision making by:
address the following topics and issues:
Facilitating dialogue between the various communi-
Mission to Planet Earth-National Partners
ties involved in global change research and policy;
Mission to Planet Earth-International Partners
Communicating the Federal research strategy
Earth-Based Observations-U.S. Initiatives
(including Mission to Planet Earth);
Data Policy and Availability
Identifying and discussing issues not addressed by
Federal initiatives; and
Economics of Global Environmental Change
Discussing how the national agenda fits into the
Policy Response to Global Environmental Change
evolving international program.
Building a National Partnership-Getting Our Act
Together
The conference proceedings will include records of the
Conference Participants
panel sessions and contributed papers that address one
The conference will be of special interest to the:
or more of the session topics. Those interested in
contributing papers should contact ERIM for additional
Federal earth observation community,
information and the author's kit.
Research community,
ERIM/Global Change Conference
Educators and students,
Dr. Robert H. Rogers
Industry,
P.O. Box 8618
Ann Arbor, MI 48107-8618, USA
Policy makers (local, state, Federal, and interna-
tional),
Telephone: (313) 994-1200, ext. 3382
Telex: 4940991 ERIMARB
Public interest groups, and
Fax: (313) 994-5123
Media.
All contributed papers received by October 24, 1990,
will be reviewed and those selected will be published in
the conference proceedings.
Our Changing Planet:
The FY 1990 Research Plan
Executive Summary
This photograph of the Earth was taken from the Apollo 10 Spacecraft. Much of
the Earth is heavily cloud covered. A portion of the United States from the Great
Lakes to Southern California, including the Rocky Mountain area, is visible. The
North American coastline from Southern Mexico to Alaska can be seen.
Our Changing Planet:
The FY 1990 Research Plan
Executive Summary
THE U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE
RESEARCH PROGRAM
A Report by the Committee
on Earth Sciences
July 1989
1
Office of Science and Technology Policy
Federal Coordinating Council on Science,
Engineering, and Technology
Committee on Earth Sciences
Chairman
Dallas Peck, Department of the Interior, United States
Geological Survey
Vice-Chairman
Richard G. Johnson, Office of Science and Technology Policy
(Consultant)
Members:
Beverly J. Berger, Office of Science and Technology Policy
Frederick M. Bernthal, Department of State
Erich Bloch, National Science Foundation
Erich Bretthauer, Environmental Protection Agency
William Diefenderfer III, Office of Management and Budget
Travis P. Dungan, Department of Transportation
Charles E. Hess, United States Department of Agriculture
A. Alan Hill, Council on Environmental Quality
Robert O. Hunter, Jr., Department of Energy
George Millburn, Department of Defense
Melvin N. A. Peterson, Department of Commerce
Richard H. Truly, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Harlan L. Watson, Department of the Interior
Executive Secretary
John Houghton, Department of the Interior, United States
Geological Survey
(See Appendix for the CES Charter)
EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
ii
OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY
Washington, D.C. 20506
Early in 1989, I transmitted to the U.S. Congress a report which
accompanied the President's FY 1990 Budget outlining the goals, implemen-
tation strategy, and research budget of the U.S. Global Change Research
Program. This strategy document, entitled "Our Changing Planet: A U.S.
Strategy for Global Change Research," was the product of an intense inter-
agency effort by experts in various earth sciences and other disciplines. This
interagency effort was coordinated by the Committee on Earth Sciences
(CES) of the Federal Coordinating Council for Science, Engineering, and
Technology. The strategy document promised a detailed and comprehensive
research plan based on the research strategy to be published in 1989.
I am pleased to forward with this letter the U.S. Global Change
Research Program research plan for FY 1990. This research plan focuses on
establishing a sound scientific basis for developing national and international
policy on global change issues. Global changes such as desertification,
drought, volcanism, and global warming can have a tremendous economic
and societal impact. The relative roles of human activity and natural
processes in these changes are of great importance but are, at present,
unknown. In addition, our knowledge is insufficient to reliably predict the
likely degree, rate, or timing of these changes. Improving our ability to
understand and to ultimately predict global changes, whether natural or
human-induced, is essential. The CES research plan represents a well-
coordinated federal research program to address these issues and provides a
strong foundation for international cooperation.
The scientific objectives of the research plan are to monitor, under-
stand, and ultimately predict global change. The report outlines a priority
framework for focusing and integrating the interagency research efforts to
ensure that they meet these objectives. This priority framework was derived
from numerous research priorities outlined by both the U.S. and international
communities. It indicates research areas that require progress to improve our
understanding of both natural and human-induced global changes. This
research plan provides a solid foundation for future planning and will be
updated periodically to reflect our growing understanding of global environ-
mental changes.
I take this opportunity to thank and commend Chairman Dallas Peck
and his interagency committee members and staff who have done an out-
standing job in preparing this report.
William R. Mraham
William R. Graham
Director
1
Table of Contents
Committee on Earth Sciences Membership
i
Office of Science and Technology Policy
Transmittal Letter
ii
List of Tables and Figures
3
U.S. Global Change Research Program At-A-Glance
4
Introduction
6
The Purpose of This Report
7
The Scope of the U.S. Global Change Research Program 8
The U.S. Global Change Research Program
10
Program Goal
10
Key Scientific Questions
11
Implementation Strategy
11
Scientific Objectives
11
Disciplinary Integration
12
Coordination Mechanisms
14
Priority Framework for the U.S. Global Change
Research Program
15
Strategic Priorities
18
Integrating Priorities
18
Science Priorities
19
Climate and Hydrologic Systems
20
Biogeochemical Dynamics
20
Ecological Systems and Dynamics
20
Earth System History
21
Human Interactions
21
Solid Earth Processes
21
Solar Influences
22
Evaluation Criteria
22
2
FY 1989-1990 U.S. Global Change
Research Program Budget
24
FY 1989-1990 Budget Summary
24
FY 1990 Initiatives
24
Budget by Science Element
29
Budget by Agency
31
Budget by Federal Budget Function
35
Epilogue: The Fundamental Rationale
38
Appendix: Committee on Earth Sciences Charter
39
3
List of Tables and Figures
Tables
1. U.S. Global Change Research Program Budget
for Fiscal Years 1989 and 1990
26
2. U.S. Global Change Research Program Budget
by Federal Budget Function for Fiscal Years 1989
and 1990
37
Figures
1. U.S. Global Change Research Program
Priority Framework
16
2. U.S. Global Change Research Program Budget
by Science Element
29
3. U.S. Global Change Research Program by Agency
31
4. U.S. Global Change Research Program
by Federal Budget Function
36
4
THE U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE
AT-A
Many global changes can have tremendous impact on the
welfare of humans. These events may stem from natural
processes that began millions of years ago or from human
influence. Responding to these changes without a strong
scientific basis could be futile and very costly.
This report presents a comprehensive research plan for the
U.S. Global Change Research Program.
The goal of the Program is to provide a sound scientific basis
for national and international decision making on global
change issues.
The Program's goals, objectives, research priorities, and
strategy are consistent with current national and international
global change planning and research efforts.
The scientific objectives of the Program are to monitor,
understand, and ultimately predict global change.
The Program is broad in scope, encompassing the full range
of Earth system changes, including physical, chemical,
geological, social, and biological changes. The Program
addresses both natural phenomena, as well as the effects of
human activity.
5
RESEARCH PROGRAM
GLANCE
The particular research activities which comprise the U.S.
Global Change Research Program are grouped into seven
interdisciplinary scientific elements:
1. Climate and Hydrologic Systems
2. Biogeochemical Dynamics
3. Ecological Systems and Dynamics
4. Earth System History
5. Human Interactions
6. Solid Earth Processes
7. Solar Influences
In fiscal year 1989, funding for focused global change
research activities total $133.9 million. The President's
FY 1990 budget proposes a funding level of $191.5 million,
a 43 percent increase for focused programs. This substantial
increase will enable the Program to expand and accelerate its
research activities in most areas of global change research.
This strategy was developed by a U.S. Federal interagency
group, the Committee on Earth Sciences of the Federal
Coordinating Council for Science, Engineering, and Tech-
nology (FCCSET). The FCCSET is chaired by the Director
of the Office of Science and Technology Policy in the
Executive Office of the President.
6
Introduction
The Earth is a changing place. Over the past million years
deserts, forests, and grasslands have migrated across the land,
seashores have advanced and retreated, and wet and dry
periods have come and gone. The dramatic rise in industrial
activities during the 19th and 20th centuries has produced a
new set of concerns, namely, that human activities may be
affecting the Earth system. Consequently, wise use of the
Earth for human habitation has become an important political
and scientific issue. World population growth, intense indus-
trial and agricultural activities, and the need to maintain man's
health and welfare require that each individual and country
exercise appropriate environmental care and sensitivity.
The global changes that may affect both human well-being
and the quality of life on this planet include ozone depletion,
global climate warming, sea level change, drought, deforesta-
tion, desertification, and reduction in biodiversity. While
dramatic and complex in and of themselves, these discrete
global environmental concerns cannot be fully understood
unless they are addressed collectively.
Many of these changes are the result of interrelated natural
processes, including changes in the climate system, in solar
processes, in the Earth's orbit, in volcanic processes, and in the
distribution of biological species and landmasses that may have
been ongoing for centuries. Although human activities may
have the potential to alter the Earth system, it is clear that
variations occur naturally over a wide range. For many of
these changes, current knowledge is insufficient to reliably
predict the likely degree, rate, or timing of these changes. To
understand and ultimately predict the impact of both natural
processes and human activities on these changes, it is necessary
to improve our understanding of the underlying physical, geo-
logical, chemical, biological, and social processes that control
the Earth's environment.
7
In the past several decades, science has provided increased
insight into how the Earth and its global environment function.
This capability provides the opportunity for a new and more
responsible partnership with nature and a mechanism to im-
prove the scientific basis for making policy decisions on global
change issues. An effective and well-coordinated national and
international research program will be required to dramatically
improve our knowledge of these complex Earth processes -
to provide the basis to discriminate between natural and man-
influenced changes, and ultimately to predict global change.
The Purpose of This Report
To address this need, the President transmitted to the
Congress in early 1989 a report entitled Our Changing Planet:
A U.S. Strategy for Global Change Research. This report
outlined the goals and objectives of the U.S. Global Change
Research Program (Program) and recommended that a compre-
hensive research plan be developed to further integrate Federal
global change research activities.
Our Changing Planet:
A U.S. Strategy
for Global Change Research
A Report by the Committee on Earth Sciences
To Accompany the
U.S. President's Fiscal Year 1990 Budget
8
In response to this recommendation, a comprehensive
research plan, entitled Our Changing Planet: The FY 1990
Research Plan, has been developed for the U.S. Global Change
Research Program. This document is the Executive Summary
of the Research Plan. All of these documents have been devel-
oped by a U.S. Federal interagency group, the Committee on
Earth Sciences (CES) of the Federal Coordinating Council for
Science, Engineering, and Technology (FCCSET). The
FCCSET is chaired by the Director of the Office of Science
and Technology Policy in the Executive Office of the Presi-
dent.
In addition to information included in the original strategy
document, the Executive Summary also includes identification
of the key scientific questions, the priorities among research
needs, and identification of specific agency roles. Both the
strategy document and the Executive Summary cover the
Program's FY 1989-1990 activities. The purpose of this Execu-
tive Summary and the Research Plan is to present the FY 1990
program in the priority framework that has been developed
over the past year. This format will be the basis for the Pro-
gram in FY 1991 and future years.
The Scope of The U.S. Global Change Research
Program
The overall U.S. strategy to address global change issues
requires efforts in three areas: research to understand the
Earth's environment; research and development of new tech-
nologies to adapt to, or mitigate, environmental changes; and
formulation of national and international policy response
options required for a changing environment. The goal of the
U.S. Global Change Research Program is to provide the scien-
tific basis for informed decision making. It is not the role of
the Program to formulate policies regarding global change, nor
does its mandate cover the research required to develop new
9
technologies that might be used to mitigate or adapt to a
changing environment.
The CES recognizes that, while alternative technologies
are not a component of the Program, high priority should be
given to this important research. Agencies such as the Environ-
mental Protection Agency (EPA), Department of Energy (DOE),
and U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) must play a leader-
ship role in the important area of research in adaptation and
mitigation technologies. Such research would be complemen-
tary to the U.S. Global Change Research Program and to on-
going studies of response strategy formulation.
10
The U.S. Global Change
Research Program
Program Goal
Rational response strategies and sound policy can only be
built upon reliable information, predictions, and assessments
of the complex phenomena of the global earth system. It is in
this context that the U.S. Global Change Research Program
goal has been developed.
U.S. Global Change
Research Program Goal
Recognizing that effective and rational response strate-
gies to environmental issues can be built only on sound
scientific information, the overarching goal of the U.S.
Global Change Research Program is:
To gain a predictive understanding of the interactive
physical, geological, chemical, biological, and social
processes that regulate the total Earth system and,
hence, establish the scientific basis for national and
international policy formulation and decisions relating
to natural and human-induced changes in the global
environment and their regional impacts.
In formulating the Research Plan, the CES has drawn upon
the national and international research plans and recommenda-
tions developed by the scientific community over the past few
years that call for a systematic and integrated study of the
global Earth system and its susceptibility to change. In par-
ticular, the CES relies heavily on the advice and recommenda-
tions of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences' (NAS)
Committee on Global Change. The goals, objectives, and
strategies of the Program are also consistent with the Inter-
national Council of Scientific Unions' (ICSU) International
Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, and the ICSU and World
Meteorological Organization's (WMO) World Climate
Research Programme.
11
Key Scientific Questions
Meeting the above goal will require addressing the follow-
ing three major questions of the U.S. Global Change Research
Program:
What global changes have occurred in the past and are
occurring now?
Proxy Record
Direct Measurement
What physical, geological, chemical, biological, and social
processes are involved in influencing global change and its
environmental impacts?
Global Change Forcing Agents
Global System Interactions
How well can global change and its impacts be predicted?
Model Simulation of the Past
Model Simulation of the Present
Model Prediction of the Future
A central goal in addressing all three of these scientific
questions is improving our ability to distinguish between
natural and human-influenced changes in the global environ-
ment.
Implementation Strategy
The strategy for implementing the U.S. Global Change
Research Program requires the identification of scientific
objectives, the integration of traditional scientific disciplines,
and the establishment of new coordination mechanisms.
Scientific Objectives. The Program has three parallel scien-
tific objectives that address the key questions mentioned above.
12
These three objectives are the monitoring, understanding, and
predicting of global change. Work toward these objectives
must proceed simultaneously and in concert, since progress in
each of these objectives influences the others. These three
objectives are part of the Program priority framework and will
be discussed in detail in the following priority framework
section.
Disciplinary Integration. The Program recognizes the need to
achieve a greater level of integration among both single-
discipline and multi-discipline scientific activities. These
levels of disciplinary integration include:
The Single-Discipline Level. This fundamental level of
activity comprises programs of observations, process
studies, theory, and information systems in the basic and
traditional Earth and social science disciplines, such as
geology, oceanography, meteorology, biology, atmospheric
chemistry, hydrology, agronomy, glaciology, economics,
geography, and sociology.
The Interdisciplinary Level. The knowledge of global
subsystems is developed and tested at this level. Examples
include interdisciplinary topics such as atmospheric-
biospheric exchange; coupled oceanic-atmospheric dynam-
ics; and chemical, dynamical, and radiative couplings in
polar stratospheric ozone processes.
The Integrated Level. Here the conceptual and predictive
models of the whole Earth system are developed. Achiev-
ing this fully integrated level of perspective and activities is
the overarching objective of the U.S. Global Change
Research Program.
The Program requires support for activities across all three
levels of disciplinary integration. It is this multi-level structure
that draws upon the strengths of the existing and separate
fundamental disciplines, while building the interdisciplinary
13
approaches that an integrated Earth picture also demands. The
Program's seven science elements reflect the integrated and
interdisciplinary nature of such a complex research effort.
These science elements are:
Climate and Hydrologic Systems. Includes the study of the
physical processes that govern physical climate and the
hydrological cycle, including interactions between the
atmosphere, hydrosphere (i.e., oceans, surface and ground
water, clouds, etc.), cryosphere, land surface, and
biosphere.
Biogeochemical Dynamics. Includes the study of the
sources, sinks, fluxes, trends, and interactions involving
the biogeochemical constituents within the Earth system,
including human activities, with a focus on carbon, nitro-
gen, sulfur, oxygen, phosphorus, and the halogens.
Ecological Systems and Dynamics. Includes the study of
the responses of ecological systems, both marine and
terrestrial, to changes in global and regional environmental
conditions and of the influence of biological communities
on the atmospheric, terrestrial, oceanic, and climatic
systems.
Earth System History. Includes the study and interpretation
of the natural records of past environmental change that are
contained in terrestrial and marine sediments, soils,
glaciers and permafrost, tree rings, rocks, geomorphic
features, and other direct or proxy documentation of past
global conditions.
Human Interactions. Includes the study of (i) the social
factors that influence the global environment, including
population growth, industrialization, agricultural practices,
and other land usages; and (ii) the human activities that are
impacted by regional aspects of global change.
14
Solid Earth Processes. Includes the study of geological
processes (e.g., volcanic eruptions and erosion) that affect
the global environment, especially those processes that take
place at the interfaces between the Earth's surface and the
atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, and biosphere.
Solar Influences. Includes the study of how changes in the
near-space and the upper atmosphere that are induced by
variability in solar output influence the Earth's environ-
ment.
The success of the U.S. Global Change Research Program
requires progress in all seven scientific elements, as well as the
development of data management/information systems to
facilitate reduction and analysis of integrated data sets.
Coordination Mechanisms. The planning for and implemen-
tation of a broad and comprehensive global change research
program will require collaboration and program coordination
among many institutions and agencies; these can be broadly
grouped into three "communities" that are involved with the
science of global change:
National and international scientific community. Including
both structured (NAS, ICSU) and informal mechanisms
(scientist to scientist) for planning science activities.
Government agencies. Including individual agencies of
governments (U.S. and foreign) that support and conduct
global change scientific research and the coordinating
bodies for these agencies within governments (e.g., CES).
Intergovernmental science bodies. Including the multi-
national bodies, such as the WMO, the United Nations
Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization
(UNESCO), and the United Nations Environment Program
(UNEP).
15
No one Federal agency encompasses the breadth required
by the U.S. Global Change Research Program. An effective
confederation is required to support and conduct the needed
activities, as outlined in the CES Charter (Appendix). More-
over, the complexity and scope of the research required under-
scores the advantages of an effective interface with coordinat-
ing bodies, including the National Academy of Sciences.
Furthermore, since such national, and analogous international,
interactions are far from being spontaneous or automatic
processes, it is of paramount importance to establish and
maintain these coordinating mechanisms.
Priority Framework for the U.S. Global Change
Research Program
The CES has developed a multi-level priority-setting
framework that can be used to focus and integrate program
development and budget proposals. In order to address the
Program goal of establishing the scientific basis for sound
policy formulation, CES has identified several high priority
research activities for each of the seven science elements.
These represent the current understanding of the most serious
intellectual hurdles limiting (i) the knowledge of the control-
ling processes of global change, and (ii) the capacity to develop
comprehensive predictive capabilities.
For any given funding level, the mix of activities both
within and between science elements will be determined
through an iterative process involving many different partici-
pants, including the CES, the National Academy of Sciences,
and others. It is likely and expected that these priorities will
change as scientific understanding and capabilities evolve.
Figure 1 lists the Program's strategic, integrating, and science
priorities that are included in the priority framework.
16
Figure
U.S. Global Change Research
le
STRATEGIC
I
Support Broad U.S. and
Identify Natural and Hu
Focus on Interactions
Share Financial Burden
INTEGRATING
Documention of
Observational
Data Manage
Focused Studies on
and Improved
Integrated Concep
SCIENCE
Climate and
Biogeochemical
Ecological Systems
Earth System
Hydrologic Systems
Dynamics
and Dynamics
History
Role of Clouds
Bio/Atm/Ocean Fluxes
Long-Term Measure-
Paleoclimate
Ocean Circulation and
of Trace Species
ments of Structure/
Paleoecology
Heat Flux
Atm Processing of
Function
Atmospheric
Increasing Priority
Land/Atm/Ocean
Trace Species
Response to Climate
Composition
Water & Energy
Surface/Deep Water
and Other Stresses
Ocean Circulati
Fluxes
Biogeochemistry
Interactions between
and Composi
Coupled Climate System
Terrestrial Biosphere
Physical and
Ocean Producti
& Quantitative Links
Nutrient and
Biological Processes
Sea Level Chan
Ocean/Atm/Cryosphere
Carbon Cycling
Models of Interactions,
Paleohydrology,
Interactions
Terrestrial Inputs to
Feedbacks, and
Marine Ecosystems
Responses
Productivity/Resource
Models
Increasing
17
1
Program Priority Framework
PRIORITIES
International Scientific Effort
man -Induced Changes
and Interdisciplinary Science
Use the Best Resources,
PRIORITIES
Earth System Change
Programs
ment Systems
Controlling Processes
Understanding
tual and Predictive Models
PRIORITIES
Human
Solid Earth
Solar
Interactions
Processes
Influences
Data Base Development
Coastal Erosion
EUV/UV Monitoring
Models Linking:
Volcanic Processes
Atm/Solar Energy
Population Growth
Permafrost and Marine
Coupling
and Distribution
Gas Hydrates
Irradiance (Measure/
Energy Demands
Ocean/Seafloor Heat
Model)
Changes in Land Use
and Energy Fluxes
Climate/Solar Record
vity
Industrial Production
Surficial Processes
Proxy Measurements
Crustal Motions and
and Long-Term
Sea Level
Data Base
Priority
18
Strategic Priorities
The major purposes for establishing strategic priorities are
to provide an overall framework to help determine the key
elements of the U.S. Global Change Research Program, to keep
the focus on the most central goals and objectives of the Pro-
gram, and to compare budget decisions against broad strategic
guidelines. The following research program characteristics are
deemed to be of high strategic importance:
Supports Broad U.S. and International Scientific Effort.
Supports a broad U.S. and international effort to improve the
scientific basis needed to address the environmental, socie-
tal, and economic challenges related to global change.
Identifies Natural and Human-Induced Changes. Distin-
guishes natural changes from industrial, social, and other
forms of human-induced changes.
Focuses on Interactions and Interdisciplinary Science.
Advances the scientific understanding of global change
processes through a fundamental research program that
focuses on the interactions among physical, geological,
chemical, biological, and social processes and emphasizes
interdisciplinary science.
Shares Financial Burden, Uses Best Resources, and
Encourages Full Participation. Shares the financial burden
nationally and internationally, utilizes the best physical and
intellectual resources, and encourages the full participation
of all nations.
Integrating Priorities
As stated above, the U.S. Global Change Research Program
has three parallel and interrelated scientific objectives, one or
more of which must be served by any research project or activity
19
of the Program. These scientific objectives also serve as the
following integrating priorities:
Establish an integrated, comprehensive long-term program
of documenting the Earth system on a global scale through:
Observational programs
Data management systems.
Conduct a program of focused studies to improve our
understanding of the physical, geological, chemical, bio-
logical, and social processes that influence Earth system
processes and trends on global and regional scales.
Develop integrated conceptual and predictive Earth system
models.
Science Priorities
The science priorities are drawn from numerous sources,
including (i) the extensive CES analysis of the current weak-
nesses in the understanding of global change and what research
is needed to address these weaknesses; (ii) the 1988 NAS
report entitled Towards an Understanding of Global Change;
(iii) the 1984 WMO and ICSU report entitled Scientific Plan
for the World Climate Research Programme; (iv) the 1988
Earth System Sciences Committee (National Aeronautics and
Space Administration [NASA] Advisory Committee) report
entitled Earth System Science: A Closer View; and (v) the
1988 ICSU report entitled The International Geosphere-
Biosphere Programme: A Study of Global Change- - A Plan
for Action.
The science priorities are shown schematically in the lower
part of Figure 1. The science elements are listed from left to
right in descending order of priority. Within each of the seven
science elements, the research activities are listed in descend-
ing order of priority. These priorities are designed to ensure
20
that the Program makes rapid progress toward resolving the
most significant uncertainties with a given level of support.
The CES recognizes that some level of effort is necessary in all
the scientific activities to achieve the ultimate goal of reliably
modeling the Earth system.
Although the priorities are ordered along each axis of the
matrix, the importance of neighboring science elements is
similar and virtually interchangeable. In many instances, the
research activities shown in the matrix are complementary;
hence funding one scientific activity may influence the priority
of others, leading to lower priority activities being funded.
These science priorities include:
Climate and Hydrologic Systems. Studies need to be con-
ducted to improve the understanding of (i) the role of clouds in
the radiation budget of the atmosphere; (ii) oceanic circulation
patterns and the redistribution of energy within the oceans; (iii)
the fluxes of water and energy between the atmosphere, bio-
sphere, and land and ocean surfaces; (iv) the quantitative links
in the climate system, including feedbacks among atmosphere,
ocean, cryosphere, land surface and biosphere; and (v) the
influence of polar ice sheets and sea ice on climate and the
hydrologic cycle.
Biogeochemical Dynamics. Studies must be conducted to
improve the understanding of (i) the fluxes of radiatively and
chemically active species between the atmosphere, biosphere,
and land and ocean surfaces; (ii) the atmospheric cycling and
transformations of radiatively and chemically important trace
species; (iii) the biogeochemical processes responsible for the
exchange of carbon and nutrients between the surface, deep
ocean waters, and sediments; (iv) the cycling and transforma-
tion within the terrestrial biosphere of nutrients and carbon;
and (v) the terrestrial flux of nutrients and carbon to coastal
waters and oceanic ecosystems.
21
Ecological Systems and Dynamics. Research is required on
(i) the structure and function of biological systems on various
time scales; (ii) the response of species, ecological communi-
ties, and natural and managed ecosystems to carbon dioxide,
climate, and physical/chemical stresses; (iii) the interactions
between physical and biological processes on varying time and
space scales; (iv) modeling ecology and physical climate inter-
actions; and (v) modeling biological productivity of natural and
managed ecosystems.
Earth System History. Research needs to be conducted to
reconstruct the Earth's past climates and environments on both
regional and global scales from evidence preserved in the
geologic record, including past (i) natural variability of climate
on all time scales, (ii) responses of ecosystems to climate
change, (iii) changes in the composition of the Earth's atmos-
phere, (iv) changes in oceanic circulation and composition,
(v) changes in oceanic productivity, (vi) changes in sea level,
and (vii) changes in surface water and ground water in response
to climate change.
Human Interactions. Research on human interactions in
global change must be conducted to (i) establish long-term,
comparable, cross-national data bases that encompass human
activities such as land-use practices, energy transformations,
legal and regulatory requirements, and economic behavior; and
(ii) develop models linking population growth and distribution,
energy demands, changes in land use, and industrial production.
Solid Earth Processes. Research is required to improve know-
ledge of (i) coastal erosion and wetland loss caused by sea level
changes; (ii) the role of subaerial and submarine volcanism in
contributing radiatively important gases, aerosols, heat, and
fluids to the atmosphere and the ocean; (iii) how changes in the
areal extent of permafrost will alter the quantity of radiatively
important gases released to the atmosphere; (iv) the role of mid-
ocean ridge systems in releasing heat, volatiles, fluids, and
22
particulates into the ocean and how these may influence ocean
circulation, chemistry, and the carbon dioxide budget; (v) the
erosional, transport, and depositional processes on the Earth's
surface; and (vi) the Earth's crust and its deformation, both
past and present, to establish local versus global absolute sea
level change.
Solar Influences. Studies are required to (i) obtain long-term
records of solar ultraviolet output; (ii) improve the understand-
ing of the coupling of energy between atmospheric regions,
from the thermosphere to the troposphere; (iii) obtain a long-
term record of total and spectral solar irradiance; (iv) model
climate response to solar inputs and variability; and (v) develop
new measurement techniques to determine solar output.
The need for effective data management will be common to
all of these science element activities. The studies need to
provide these common resources: (i) the management of
global-scale, long-term data from observation systems; (ii) the
organization of data sets to improve the understanding of
global change processes; and (iii) the analyses and preparation
of data sets for the development and validation of predictive
global change models.
Evaluation Criteria
Within the priority framework, the CES will implement the
Program on the basis of the following criteria:
Relevance/Contribution. The research addresses the over-
all goal and the three key scientific objectives of the Pro-
gram.
Scientific Merit. The proposed work is scientifically sound
and of high priority.
23
Readiness. The level of planning is high, the capabilities
are of high quality and in place, and the research is likely to
produce early advances.
Linkages. National and international programmatic con-
nections, including interagency partnerships, are in place.
Costs. The identified resources are adequate, they repre-
sent an appropriate share of total available resources, there
are prospects for joint funding, and long-term resource
implications have been evaluated.
24
FY 1989-1990 U.S. Global Change
Research Program Budget
FY 1989-1990 Budget Summary. Over the past year, the
CES conducted several interagency global change research
budget planning and analysis activities to ensure that the
President's FY 1990 Budget includes requests that are well
integrated and responsive to the Program's goals and priorities.
Table 1 presents the FY 1989-1990 Program budget. In
FY 1989, funding for focused global change research activities
totals $133.9 million. The President's FY 1990 Budget
proposes a funding level of $191.5 million for this Program.
This budget will allow the focused Program to expand and
accelerate its research activities across most areas of global
change. As a result of subsequent CES discussions, the levels
of effort between science elements have changed slightly since
the original strategy document.
FY 1990 Initiatives. Based on the priority framework, the
Program has identified several new initiatives for FY 1990.
The majority (approximately 76 percent) of the resources allo-
cated to FY 1990 initiatives have been directed toward scien-
tific activities within the three higher priority interdisciplinary
science elements: Climate and Hydrologic Systems, Biogeo-
chemical Dynamics, and Ecological Systems and Dynamics.
These new initiatives include new programs and augmentations
to ongoing efforts. In most cases, the research initiatives
contain significant elements of all three scientific objectives,
i.e., monitoring, understanding, and predicting global change,
and are components of coordinated national and/or interna-
tional programs.
The fact that the FY 1990 initiatives cut across many of the
seven science elements and three scientific objectives demon-
strates the interdisciplinary and multi-objective nature of the
Program. However, this also makes it very difficult to display
25
the individual agency programmatic contributions. Some
examples of these agency initiatives will be presented here
along with the budget by science element, by agency, and by
Federal Budget Function. The reader is referred to the
Research Plan for a thorough listing of the FY 1990 initiatives.
The following brief section analyzes the characteristics of some
examples of the FY 1990 initiatives:
The Department of Commerce/National Oceanic and At-
mospheric Administration (NOAA) Radiatively Important
Trace Species initiative focuses on Biogeochemical Dy-
namics, is a single agency program that contains elements
of all three science objectives, complements other ongoing
U.S. agency programs (primarily in NASA and NSF), and
is part of the high priority research outlined in the ICSU
International Global Atmospheric Chemistry Programme.
The NSF and DOE Global Ocean Flux Study initiatives
focus on Biogeochemical Dynamics, contain elements in all
three science objectives, and are key components of a well-
coordinated national (NSF, DOE, NASA, NOAA) and
international program.
The proposed NASA Earth Observing System is a broad-
based program that contains elements in all three science
objectives and will contribute to an improved understand-
ing of five of the seven scientific elements. The Program
includes advanced technology definition studies for this
future initiative. A significant international contribution
has been negotiated through a series of bilateral agreements
with the European Space Agency and other nations having
major space programs.
26
Tab
U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH
(Dollar
CLIMATE AND
ECOL
TOTAL
HYDROLOGIC
BIOGEOCHEMICAL
SYSTE
AGENCY
BUDGET
SYSTEMS
DYNAMICS
DYNA
FY89
FY90
FY89
FY90
FY89
FY90
FY89
AGENCY
TOTALS
133.9
191.5
37.0
60.2
26.1
38.6
32.5
DOC/NOAA
9.0
20.0
8.5
16.5
0.5
3.5
0.0
DOE
20.2
27.2
7.0
12.0
6.0
5.5
4.2
DOI*
5.3
11.3
1.8
4.6
0.2
0.3
0.0
EPA
27.4
35.3
0.7
2.2
0.8
3.5
7.4
NASA
14.5
21.5
4.3
6.4
3.0
4.4
4.3
NSF
39.2
53.5
13.2
17.0
13.5
18.3
1.9
USDA
18.3
22.7
1.5
1.5
2.1
3.1
14.7
*
NOTE: FY 1990 Focused Program Total differs from the amount reported in Our
changes made after the printing date.
27
1
BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEARS 1989 AND 1990
in Millions)
GICAL
MS &
EARTH SYSTEM
HUMAN
SOLID EARTH
SOLAR
MICS
HISTORY
INTERACTIONS
PROCESSES
INFLUENCES
FY90
FY89
FY90
FY89
FY90
FY89
FY90
FY89
FY90
46.9
3.3
8.0
22.0
20.1
8.9
10.4
4.1
7.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
7.3
0.0
0.0
2.0
1.2
0.0
0.0
1.0
1.2
0.0
1.3
3.3
1.5
2.5
0.5
0.6
0.0
0.0
13.2
0.0
0.0
18.5
16.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
6.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.2
3.3
0.7
1.0
1.9
2.0
4.7
0.0
0.0
6.2
6.5
2.4
5.1
18.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Changing Planet: A U.S. Strategy for Global Change Research due to budget
28
The Tropical Oceans and Global Atmosphere (TOGA)
program addresses all three scientific objectives of the U.S.
Global Change Research Program. It addresses an impor-
tant problem in climate prediction, incorporating large-scale
observations, intensive process research, and work on
predictive models. In the U.S., TOGA involves formally
coordinated work by four agencies (NOAA, NSF, NASA,
and the Department of Defense [DOD]) advised by a panel
from the NAS. Internationally, as part of the World Climate
Research Programme (WCRP), 16 nations are cooperating
through an intergovernmental board formally established for
TOGA implementation. Several important bilateral rela-
tionships, which involve the U.S., have also been estab-
lished to support TOGA.
The DOE Carbon Dioxide Program will initiate focused
research on the problem of early detection of global climate
change. This initiative seeks to identify the atmospheric and
other measurements that appear promising in providing the
early warming signals and to develop the analytical method-
ologies for quantifying the links between the "greenhouse"
gas increases and climate change. The initiative spans the
first two science elements and will examine the cause and
effect relationships involved in global warming.
The National Ozone Expedition is an interagency program
(NASA, NOAA, NSF) designed to obtain an improved
understanding of the seasonal stratospheric ozone depletion
over Antarctica and the biological significance of the resul-
tant changes in ultraviolet radiation reaching the surface of
this region of the Earth. Increased monitoring of solar ultra-
violet fluxes in Antarctica will be initiated by NSF to help
meet the program's objectives.
29
Budget by Science Element. From the scientific perspective,
the best way to understand the Program budget is to examine it
by science element. Figure 2 presents the FY 1989 and FY
1990 budgets by science element for focused research efforts.
Figure 2
U.S. Global Change Research Program
Budget by Science Element
D
70
o
L
L
60
A
R
50
S
I
40
N
30
M
I
L
20
L
I
10
o
N
S
0
Climate and
Biogeochemical
Ecological
Earth System
Human
Solid Earth
Solar Influences
Hydrological
Dynamics
System
History
Interactions
Processes
Systems
Dynamics
SCIENCE ELEMENT
FY1989
FY1990
Climate and Hydrologic Systems. The FY 1990 budget
proposes $60.2 million for this element, a 63 percent
increase over the FY 1989 level. This increase will pri-
marily focus on monitoring, understanding, and predicting
aspects of (i) ocean circulation through tracer experiments
(NOAA and NSF); (ii) interactions between the tropical
oceans and the global atmosphere (NSF); (iii) sea level
(NOAA); (iv) the exchange of energy and water between
the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems and the cry-
osphere (NSF, Department of the Interior/United States
Geological Survey [USGS], and NOAA); (v) the quantita-
tive links between radiative and climate change (DOE), and
advanced space remote-sensing technology (NASA).
30
Biogeochemical Dynamics. The FY 1990 budget proposes
$38.6 million for this element, a 48 percent increase over
the FY 1989 level. This increase will primarily focus on
monitoring, understanding, and predicting aspects of (i) the
fluxes of radiatively important trace gases between the
atmosphere and the oceans and terrestrial ecosystems (NSF,
NOAA, EPA, USDA); (ii) fluxes of nutrients and carbon
within the oceans (NSF, DOE); (iii) transformations, distri-
butions and trends of trace species within the upper and
lower atmosphere (NOAA, NSF), and development of ad-
vanced space remote-sensing technology (NASA).
Ecological Systems and Dynamics. The FY 1990 budget
proposes $46.9 million for this element, a 44 percent
increase over the FY 1989 level. This increase will primar-
ily focus on understanding the response of managed and
unmanaged ecosystems to changes in climate, carbon
dioxide, ultraviolet radiation and other stress factors
(USDA, EPA, DOE); and development of advanced space
remote-sensing technology (NASA).
Earth System History. The FY 1990 budget proposed $8.0
million for this element, more than doubling the FY 1989
level. This increase will focus on an improved reconstruc-
tion of certain aspects of the Earth's climates and environ-
ments (USGS, NSF).
Human Interactions. The FY 1990 budget proposed $20.1
million for this element. While the budget table indicates
no new FY 1990 resources for Human Interactions, NSF
and USGS will augment efforts in this area through a
reprogramming of existing funds in FY 1990.
Solid Earth Processes. The FY 1990 budget proposes
$10.4 million for this element, a 17 percent increase over
the FY 1989 level. This increase will primarily focus on
31
observations and understanding of crustal motions and
dynamics (NSF), and developing advanced space remote-
sensing technology (NASA).
Solar Influences. The FY 1990 budget proposes $7.3
million for this element, a 78 percent increase over the FY
1989 level. This increase will primarily focus on monitor-
ing solar ultraviolet fluxes in Antarctica (NSF), understand-
ing and predicting the solar driven energetics and dynamics
of atmospheric regions (NSF, DOE), and developing ad-
vanced space remote-sensing technology for monitoring
and understanding the influences of solar processes on the
Earth's environment (NASA).
Budget by Agency. Figure 3 shows the FY 1989 and FY 1990
proposed focused program budgets by agency. The individual
agency efforts reflect their particular mission and build upon
their respective scientific and technical strengths.
Figure 3
U.S. Global Change Research Program
by Agency
60
D
o
L
50
L
A
R
S
40
I
N
30
M
I
20
L
L
I
10
o
N
S
0
DOC/NOAA
DOE
DOI/USGS
EPA
NASA
NSF
USDA
AGENCY
1989
///
1990
32
Department of Commerce/National Oceanic and Atmos-
pheric Administration (DOC/NOAA). The FY 1990 budget
proposes $20.0 million for DOC/NOAA, roughly doubling
the FY 1989 level. NOAA maintains a balanced program
of observations, analytical studies, climate prediction and
information management in the national global change
program. NOAA will be responsible for: operational in situ
and satellite observations and monitoring programs; mis-
sion-directed research on physical and biogeochemical
processes in the climate system (including their effect on
marine ecosystems and resources); development, testing,
and application of models and diagnostic techniques for the
detection and prediction of natural and human-induced
climatic changes; and the acquisition, maintenance, and
distribution of long-term data bases and related climate
information.
Department of Energy (DOE). The FY 1990 budget pro-
poses $27.2 million for DOE, a 35 percent increase over the
FY 1989 level. DOE shall conduct research on carbon
dioxide and other emissions from energy supply and end
use systems. The research shall include the climate's
response to those emissions and shall develop the base of
scientific information necessary to assess the climate's
response, assuming various energy and industrial policies.
Associated efforts may include, but not be limited to,
research to quantify the relationships between carbon
dioxide and other trace gases and temperature rise, assess-
ment and application of predictive models, evaluation of
global and regional climate and environmental responses to
various energy policy options, and research on industrial
sources of trace gases. Research may include all causes of
climate change and how possible responses to change could
affect energy options.
33
Department of the Interior/United States Geological Survey
(DOI/USGS). The FY 1990 budget proposes $11.3 million
for DOI/USGS, roughly doubling the FY 1989 level. DOI/
USGS program efforts address the collection, maintenance,
analysis, and interpretation of short- and long-term land,
water, biological, and other natural resource data and
information. Such efforts include, but are not limited to,
monitoring of hydrologic and geologic processes and
resources, land use, land cover, and biological habitats,
resources, and diversity. Some DOI research areas include:
past global change recorded in the physical, chemical, and
biological record; the hydrologic cycle; land-surface and
solid Earth processes that relate to environmental change;
geography and cartography; polar and arid region proc-
esses; ecosystem modeling and dynamics; and resource
ethnology. The Department utilizes knowledge developed
in these and other agencies' programs to evaluate and when
necessary respond to potential effects of global change on
water, land, biological, and other natural resources.
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The FY 1990
budget proposes $35.3 million for EPA, a 29 percent
increase over the FY 1989 level. EPA conducts research
to assess, evaluate, and predict the ecological, environ-
mental, and human-health consequences of global change,
including the feedbacks of these systems on climate
change. Additional areas of activity include research to
determine emission factors, and inventories for radiatively
important trace gases, and research to predict the interac-
tions between global atmospheric change and regional air
and water quality.
34
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).
The FY 1990 budget proposes $21.5 million for NASA, a
48 percent increase over the FY 1989 level. NASA is
responsible for Earth science research from space, includ-
ing those studies of broad scientific scope that study the
planet as an integrated whole. Associated efforts include
related process studies; sub-orbital and ground-based
studies; remote-sensing and advanced instrument develop-
ment; improvement of techniques for the transmission,
processing, archiving, retrieval, and use of data; related
scientific models; and other research activities in atmos-
pheric, oceanographic, and land sciences.
National Science Foundation (NSF). The FY 1990 budget
proposes $53.5 million for NSF, a 36 percent increase over
the FY 1989 level. NSF is responsible for maintaining the
health of basic research in all areas of Earth, atmospheric
(including solar-terrestrial), and ocean sciences, including
the relevant biological and social sciences and research in
the polar regions. The basic research program is focused
on ground-based studies on regional and global scales;
large-scale field programs; interpretation and use of re-
motely-sensed data and geographic information systems;
theoretical and laboratory research; research facilities
support; and the development of numerical models, infor-
mation and communication systems, and data bases.
Department of Agriculture (USDA). The FY 1990 budget
proposes $22.7 million for USDA, a 24 percent increase
over the FY 1989 level. USDA conducts research to assess
the effects of global change on the agricultural food and
fiber production systems and on forests and forest ecosys-
tems of the United States and worldwide, including, but not
limited to, basic research on the biological response mecha-
nisms to increasing "greenhouse" gases; improvement of
plant and animal germ plasm to respond to global change;
35
and development and implementation of plans for terres-
trial mitigation systems to ameliorate the observed in-
creases of greenhouse gases, including crops and forests.
An additional responsibility shall include research on appli-
cations of agricultural climatology to improve management
decisions and conservation of resources, while maintaining
quality and quantity of crop yields.
The DOD and Department of Transportation currently do
not conduct research that is focused on the goals and objectives
of the Program, although both agencies conduct research that
contributes to this research effort. These programs are dis-
cussed further in the Research Plan.
Budget by Federal Budget Function. Scientific, environ-
mental, energy, and agricultural resources are very important to
the nation. All either impact or are impacted by global change.
Figure 4 and Table 2 illustrate the Program's focused
funding levels by the Federal budget functions that encompass
these national resources. As would be expected, the budget
proposes significant increases for budget functions 250 (Gen-
eral Science, Space and Technology) and 300 (Natural
Resources and Environment). In FY 1990, $75 million is pro-
posed for function 250, a 40 percent increase over FY 1989.
For function 300, $66.6 million is proposed for FY 1990, a 60
percent increase over FY 1989.
36
Figure 4
U.S. Global Change Research Program
by Federal Budget Function
D
80
o
L
70
L
A
60
R
S
50
I
N 40
M
30
I
L
20
L
I
o
10
N
S
0
250
270
300
350
FEDERAL BUDGET FUNCTION
FY1989
/
FY1990
Despite the broad distribution across these budget functions
and, hence, across many Executive Branch and Congressional
decision making paths, it is crucial to view the Program as a
single integrated research effort. The success of many of the
science objectives depends on the cooperation and contribu-
tions of all the individual agency programs. Thus, decisions
concerning these investments should attempt to recognize the
full scope and structure of the U.S. Global Change Research
Program.
37
Table 2
U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM
BUDGET
by Federal Budget Function for Fiscal Years 1989 and 1990
(Dollars in Millions)
Budget Function
Budget Function
1989
1990
Number
Total
133.9
191.5
General Science, Space
and Technology
250
53.7
75.0
NASA
14.5
21.5
NSF
39.2
53.5
Energy (DOE)
270
20.2
27.2
Natural Resources &
Environment
300
41.7
66.6
DOI/USGS
5.3
11.3
EPA
27.4
35.3
DOC/NOAA
9.0
20.0
Agriculture (USDA)
350
18.3
22.7
38
Epilogue: The Fundamental
Rationale
In the coming decades, global change may well represent
the most significant societal, environmental, and economic
challenges facing this nation and the world. The national goal
of developing a predictive understanding of global change is, in
its truest sense, science in the service of mankind.
39
Appendix
CHARTER
COMMITTEE ON EARTH SCIENCES
of the
Federal Coordinating Council for Science, Engineering,
and Technology
The Committee on Earth Sciences (CES) is hereby estab-
lished by action of the Federal Coordinating Council for Sci-
ence, Engineering, and Technology (FCCSET). FCCSET
derives its current authority from Executive Order 12039 of
February 24, 1978.
Purpose and Functions
A goal of Earth sciences is to understand, on a global scale,
how the highly interactive system comprised of the solid Earth,
the oceans, the atmosphere and magnetosphere, and the bio-
sphere has evolved, how it functions today, and how it will
evolve in the future. In addition to the basic research, impor-
tant components of Earth science R&D include continued
development of the technology for needed observations of the
Earth system and increased emphasis on collection, analysis
and archival of data on a global scale from satellite and
ground-based measurements needed for long-term research
efforts and also needed to address national policy issues which
depend on a characterization of humankind's impact, or poten-
tial impact, on the global environment. The purpose of the
Committee on Earth Sciences is to increase the overall effec-
tiveness and productivity of Federal R&D efforts directed
toward an understanding of the Earth as a global system. In
fulfilling this purpose, the Committee addresses significant
national policy matters which cut across agency boundaries.
Specifically the CES:
a. reviews Federal R&D programs in Earth sciences
including both national and international programs;
40
b. improves planning, coordination, and communication
among Federal agencies engaged in Earth sciences
R&D;
c. identifies and defines Earth sciences R&D needs;
d. develops and updates long-range plans for the overall
Federal R&D effort in Earth sciences;
e. addresses specific programmatic and operational issues
and problems which affect two or more Federal
agencies;
f. provides reviews, analyses, advice and recommendations
to the Chairperson of FCCSET on Federal policies and
programs concerned with Earth sciences R&D,
particularly in assessing humankind's impact on the
global environment;
g. develops the Administration's response to the call for a
report to Congress, in the NSF Authorization Act of
1987, concerning Federal Government action with
respect to the establishment of an International Year of
the Greenhouse Effect mandated in calendar year 1991.
Structure
The Chairperson and Vice-Chairperson of the CES are ap-
pointed by the Chairperson of FCCSET; the Vice-Chairperson
is from an agency other than that which the Chairperson repre-
sents. The Executive Secretary is designated by the CES
Chairperson. Additional staff assistance is provided by mem-
ber agencies as required by the Committee. Chairpersons of
CES task forces or working groups arrange assistance form
their own agencies.
The following departments and agencies are represented on
this Committee:
Department of Agriculture
Department of Commerce
Department of Energy
41
Department of the Interior
Department of State
National Science Foundation
Environmental Protection Agency
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Office of Science and Technology Policy
Office of Management and Budget
Council on Environmental Quality
Other Federal agencies participate, as appropriate, upon in-
vitation by the Committee Chairperson or the Chairperson of
FCCSET.
The CES Chairperson approves the establishment, continu-
ation, or termination of task forces and working groups as
necessary to achieve the Committee's purposes. Membership
on such task forces and working groups is not restricted to
Committee members and is established as the Committee may
determine appropriate.
The Committee meets at the call of the CES Chairperson
who also approves the agenda. Meetings are held not less than
two times a year. Meetings of task forces and working groups
are held as necessary to meet their specific objectives. Minutes
of meetings are prepared by the Committee Executive Secre-
tary and distributed to all members of the Committee, the
leaders of task forces and working groups, and to the Executive
Secretary of FCCSET.
Compensation
All members are full-time Federal employees who are
allowed reimbursement for travel expenses by their agencies
plus per diem or subsistence while serving away from their
duty stations and in accordance with standard governmental
travel regulations.
42
Documentation
Agendas and records of actions of Committee meetings are
prepared and disseminated to members by the Executive Secre-
tary. Records of actions are submitted to members for approval.
Complete records of all Committee activities, including those of
task forces and working groups, are maintained in the office of
the Chairperson. The Committee prepares a report for the
Chairperson of FCCSET not later than 60 days after the end of
each fiscal year. The report contains, as a minimum, the Com-
mittee's functions, a list of members and their business ad-
dresses, the dates and places of meetings, and a summary of the
Committee's activities and recommendations during the year.
Termination date
Unless renewed by the Chairperson of FCCSET prior to its
expiration, the Committee on Earth Sciences of FCCSET shall
terminate not later than December 31, 1990.
Determination
I hereby determine that the formation of the Committee on
Earth Sciences is in the public interest in connection with the
performance of duties imposed on the Executive Branch by law
and that such duties can best be performed through the advice
and counsel of such a group.
Approved:
William R. Mraham
March 6, 1987
Date
Chairman, FCCSET
43
Appointment of New Member
and Amendment to the Charter
of the
Committee on Earth Sciences
(FCCSET)
APPOINTMENT: By my authority as Chairman, Federal
Coordinating Council for Science, Engineering, and
Technology (FCCSET), I appoint the Department of Transpor-
tation as a permanent member of the Committee on Earth
Sciences (CES).
AMENDMENT: Charter of the Committee on Earth Sciences
of the Federal Coordinating Council for Science, Engineering,
and Technology as signed and approved on March 6, 1987, by
the Chairman, FCCSET, is amended as follows.
Under the Section "Structure," add the following new member:
"Department of Transportation"
William R. Mraham
August 24, 1988
Date
William R. Graham, Chairman
Federal Coordinating Council
for Science, Engineering,
and Technology
Global patterns of biological productivity showing land and ocean vegetation.
Land patterns are determined from measurements taken from the NOAA-7 polar
orbiting satellite and ocean patterns from the NASA Nimbus-7 satellite. Ocean
productivity patterns represent an average over 18 months and range from red
(most productive) to purple (least productive). Land patterns represent the
potential productivity averaged over 3 years and range from deep green
(representing rain forests) to beige (representing deserts and barren regions).
The U.S. Global Change
Research Program
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
July 2, 1990
MEMORANDUM FOR ED GOLDSTEIN
FROM:
ADAM ISLES AI
SUBJECT:
DOJ Meeting
I attended a meeting at the Department of Justice on your
behalf last Thursday, June 28. Below, you will find a typed
version of the notes I took at that meeting. Attached are two
handouts given to me at the meeting.
Participants discussed putting together an initial August
meeting of experts in Paris to outline an agenda for the
December conference on emissions trading. The goal would be
use the Stockholm IPPC meeting this October to generate
reactions to the initial outline and amend it accordingly. The
group stressed that it did not want to grow too independent of
the IPPC process, nor did it want it to appear as though the
U.S. was coopting anyone into agreeing on certain options.
Everyone seemed to agree that it would be important to
include both OECD and UNEP in these initial meetings.
Mentioned personally were Michael Guinn and Sam Tuowumba (sp?)
Also mentioned were a Mr. Ibrahim from Egypt and a "gal" from
Mexico, both of whose input and ability to draw in other
nations was considered especially helpful. More generally, it
was agreed that it would be very important to have developing
countries at the meeting. The participants felt it imperative
to get out the message about the initial meeting (something the
French are terrible at doing), and to have travel funds
available for representatives of lesser developed countries.
It was felt that the Norwegians would be especially
interested, while the Germans would be too preoccupied by
unification efforts to become too involved. The participants
implied that there had been trouble, especially from the
Japanese, in agreeing which nations to invite.
The participants expressed a desire to inventory the
scattered research efforts currently underway in the United
States. They also hoped to convince Yale professor of
economics William Nordhaus to include an econometric model in
his present research. More generally, the Secretary General of
the OECD is apparently personally interested in continuing
involvement research of economic instruments as they affect
climate change.
EMISSIONS TRADING IN GREENHOUSE GASES:
DISCUSSION OF POSSIBLE OECD SEMINAR AND FUTURE WORK
Meeting with Paul Stolpman, OECD
Dept. of Justice, Room 2143
June 28, 1990, 4:00 p.m.
Draft List of Issues
The following list identifies issues that are in need of study
and discussion and that could serve as the basis for an OECD
seminar and/or study by the OECD.
I. Design of a Seminar
Organizational and logistical issues include:
-- Timing, including possibility of appending it to a larger
climate meeting
-- Location
-- Format, presenters, chair
-- Auspices, links to other organizations (e.g. IPCC, UNEP)
-- Invitees, including means to assure developing country
participation
II. Issues to Address
A. National (Domestic) Trading
1. Informal vs. formal trading: considerations may
differ depending on whether joint arrangements are permissible
subject to governmental oversight (informal trading) or whether
an allowance/permit system is created (formal trading). That is,
informal trading can occur through ad hoc mutual reallocations of
emissions by two or more parties to meet their aggregate
obligations. Formal trading involves the inventory,
registration, or issuance of some kind of permits or allowances,
with subsequent trading to be denominated in these permits or
allowances. Variations and permutations of these approaches can
also be devised.
2. Identifying which gases, sources and sinks could
feasibly be included in a trading system. Examining the
practicality of a trading system that is comprehensive: including
- 2 -
CO2 only, or other gases as well? Sinks as well as sources?
What types of sources and/or sinks? Would the choice of a
comprehensive trading system affect the requirements for
monitoring and verification, as compared with a simpler trading
system or as compared with a non-trading regulatory system?
Could a system start with a subset of gases, sources and sinks
and then expand as knowledge and monitoring capacity improves?
Could such an expansion be encouraged by incentive approaches
(e.g. offering offset credit to newly demonstrated reductions in
currently unmonitorable emissions)
3. Identifying who would trade, and to whom emissions
and emissions reductions are assigned. For example, emissions
attributable to electricity use (and attendant tradeable
allowances) could be assigned to utilities, appliance
manufacturers, end users (businesses, farms & households), or
some combination. Similarly, emissions attributable to gasoline
combustion (and attendant tradeable allowances) could be assigned
to oil extraction companies, oil refiners, automobile
manufacturers, automobile owners, or some combination.
4. Consideration given in return for emissions
allowances, including financial and technology assistance that
may flow to allowance sellers. Important distributional impacts
may concern national policymakers, as they have in the debates
about the Clean Air Act here.
5. Facilitating trades. National and subnational
governmental bodies could act as information clearinghouses,
allowance/permit banks, brokers, auctioneers, and so forth.
Private entities might also take on these roles.
6. Monitoring trading. Emissions would have to be
monitored under any agreement, but trading would require some
oversight of the trades. Depending on who does the trading,
monitoring could be designed in different ways. National or
subnational governmental bodies could perform this role, perhaps
hiring private contractors. Monitoring could consist of spot
checks, reporting or registration requirements, designated times
and places for trading, or other arrangements. Some types of
verification, through satellite detection or on-site inspection
(e.g. of sinks) could be useful to monitor certain trades, though
these techniques relate primarily to verification of emissions
reductions themselves. Administrative costs and financing of
such institutions need to be considered.
7. Nature and duration of allowance/permit rights.
Trading could involve sales, leases, or other arrangements.
Allowances could be set to expire or change (rise or fall) in
face value over time. Sophisticated markets for trade currency
might arise (as well as black markets if conditions limit the
transferability of allowances), including futures and options
- 3 -
markets. The tax implications and tax status of allowances may
be important. These arrangements can be structured to address
concerns about "hoarding" and market-cornering by wealthy parties
(see below).
8. Dealing with moral concerns about trading, such as
the "license to pollute" issue and the notion that extra
reductions should "go to benefit society." Comparison to
regulation and emissions taxes.
9. Dealing with economic concerns about trading.
Concerns may include: "hoarding" of tradeable rights; fears that
wealthy parties would buy up all of the poorer parties' rights;
monopsony and monopoly problems; hindrances to trading related to
inadequate awareness of other market participants; problems of
transferring allowances across industry lines and along vertical
market lines.
10. Possible environmental concerns. Trading in
greenhouse gases generally has no "hotspot" problem because the
gases mix globally in the atmosphere. But there may be spatial
distribution issues regarding, e.g., the residence time of short-
lived gases such as CH4, and the toxicity of gases such as CO and
tropospheric 03. These issues may be insufficiently significant
to address at this time.
11. Initial and subsequent allocation of allowances:
how would it differ if trading is available or not. Would the
option of trading ease or exacerbate "gaming" of the initial
allocation? Would the possibility of future legislated changes
in allocations (which could possibly raise "takings" concerns)
deter trading? What would the length of rights be? What
flexibility should government have to modify the total stock?
Would government derive revenue by auctioning rights off, taxing
them, or other means?
12. Use of empirical experience with trading to deal
with these issues. E.g. lead phasedown, Clean Air Act trading to
date, local trading programs. Also, what trading has occurred
under the Montreal Protocol (domestically or internationally) ?
13. Documenting and predicting the advantages to
trading: allocative efficiency (possibly start with an
explanation of the ordinary gains from trade), incentives to
reduce emissions, dynamic efficiency and innovation, incentives
to use resources efficiently, incentives for sink enhancement,
more affordable pollution control, equity.
14. Relationship to other laws, e.g. laws pertaining
to trade, clean air, energy production, forestry, and
agriculture. Relationship of national law to subnational
governmental law, e.g. federalism concerns, the ability of states
- 4 -
to impose requirements that affect trading, preemption of state
law.
More generally: can trading be designed to match the
legal, institutional and economic structures and systems of
nations with central planning or with limited or emerging free
markets?
B. International Trading
In addition to the elements listed above under national
trading, e.g. the comprehensivity of trading (item 2) and the
nature of allowance rights (item 7), the following issues may
also be relevant:
1. Informal or formal trading. As with national
trading, international trading could initially occur "informally"
through ad hoc bilateral or regional governmental treaties. Or
more formal trading systems could be created, involving the
issuance of allowances or permits in which trades are to be
denominated.
2. Identifying who would trade. International trading
could be undertaken, on a bilateral, multilateral or regional
basis, by national governments. Yet private enterprises may be
better situated to identify and make productive trades. Trades
by private enterprises could be subject to clearance or
monitoring by national governments. A mixed system of trading by
both governments and enterprises could also be created.
Nations with different economic systems may find
trading to be best conducted by different actors. For example,
fully centrally planned economies may not find trading by
"private" entities to be appropriate. At the extreme, must a
nation have a domestic trading program in operation in order to
participate effectively in international trading?
3. International institutions to monitor trading. The
questions concerning who would trade have important implications
for how trading would be monitored, and for the degree of
formality and comprehensiveness of the international institutions
monitoring trades. Unrestricted private trading, for example,
could require a more elaborate international clearinghouse and
monitoring apparatus than might a system limited to trading by
national governments. Private trading could also (or
alternatively) be monitored by national governments. Trading by
national governments would presumably be monitored by an
international body. Monitoring could vary from simple reporting
requirements to prior approval requirements; procedures could be
routine or elaborate. International monitoring mechanisms such
- 5 -
as inspections and audits might also raise concerns about
sovereignty.
4. Scope of trades. Trading could occur among any
interested parties within a global "bubble," or it could be
conducted under regional "bubbles." The scope chosen could vary
depending on the gas, sources and sinks in question.
5. Consideration for trades and related trade and
development issues. Trading of net greenhouse gas emissions
would create a new medium of exchange, with associated flows of
capital and technology. (Some have argued that the consideration
for trades should be limited to emissions-reducing technology,
while others would favor unrestricted mutual bargains among
parties.)
Trading could be a vehicle for resource transfers to
developing nations. If developing nations have lower reduction
costs than developed nations, perhaps owing to their ability to
shift directly to non-fossil fuel energy sources and their
abundant afforestation opportunities, developing nations could
earn resources by selling excess allowances. (The same could be
true of other low-cost reducers, such as planned economies about
to turn over their capital stock, and nations that develop useful
innovations.) Some argue that this mechanism poses the risk of
undue economic leverage for developing nations, and that it will
influence the gaming of initial allocations. Others see this
mechanism as a decentralized, market-based alternative to
resource flows dictated by international organizations, central
international assistance funds, and preferential terms for
technology transfer demanded by developing nations, and a way to
reduce the gaming of initial allocations.
5a. Item 5 raises important issues regarding
international trade regimes, e.g. the role of GHG emissions
trading in international energy markets, GATT, efforts by
national governments to distort international trade in allowances
or to protect domestic allowance holders, and others.
5b. Item 5 also raises important issues regarding
international aid regimes, e.g. the role of GHG emissions trading
as an alternative to central aid funds and other aid vehicles,
the link between emissions trading and international debt
markets, and the calculation and ownership of the net emissions
impacts of aid-funded projects.
6. Facilitating trades. International organizations
and national governments could serve as information
clearinghouses, brokers, bankers, auctioneers, and so forth. In
some national economies and in the world economy, private
entities might also assume these roles.
- 6 -
7. Dealing with moral, environmental and economic
concerns. The usual concerns raised by trading may be
influenced, in an international context, by the variety of
cultures and stages of development of different nations. Some
nations have expressed the view that trading is a "license to
pollute" and therefore immoral. Experience with some debt-for
nature swaps (e.g. Bolivia) suggests that trades for sink
resources may raise concerns about sovereignty and local
opposition to outright sales of sink property rights to other
nations. Some nations unfamiliar with trading may express the
view that it is simply a means to allow illicit emissions. There
are also concerns that developed nations would "buy up" all the
allowances held by developing nations. One means for addressing
these concerns would be to make allowances leasable for a term of
years rather than fully alienable.
8. Initial allocation of allowances: how will it be
set? How will the opportunity to trade affect the allocation-
setting process? Will it tend to ease or exacerbate "gaming"?
What scope would there be for varying the basis of allocation
across nations? What flexibility would there be for subsequently
modifying the stock of rights? Modification, perhaps based on
initially limited duration of allowance rights, could be
prompted, for example, by changing scientific understanding of
emissions sources and sinks. The opportunity for modifications
in the allocation of rights among nations (as opposed to the
total stock) could discourage trading, because nations
anticipating the allocations to be renegotiated might fear that
selling some of their allowances would demonstrate that their
initial allocations were "too high" and should be reduced.
9. Use of empirical experience with international
trading to support discussion. Trading in goods, services,
currencies, debt-for-nature, under the Montreal Protocol, etc.
10. Documenting and predicting the advantages to
international trading. The advantages mentioned under national
trading must be considered in the international context.
11. Relationship to other international law and
international institutions.
- 7 -
C. Organizing Analysis:
1. Institutional analysis. Develop the institutional
underpinnings of international trading: identify international
entities that could assist in monitoring, facilitating and
verifying the legitimacy of trades (e.g. regional economic
organizations (such as OECD and EC), stock exchanges, and
commodities exchange institutions), agencies with relevant
information, and international instruments that might apply to
such trading (e.g. GATT). Examine who would trade.
2. Economic analysis. (a) What would be the likely
aggregate environmental and economic costs and benefits of
employing international emissions trading? Studies could examine
several policy scenarios, such as the degree of formality of
trading and the likely participants. (b) What would be the
advantages to different nations of (i) employing national
(domestic) trading, and (ii) participating in international
trading? The former depends in part on the nation's domestic
economic structure and degree of government regulation. The
latter depends in part on the gains from trade that might be
available to different nations, based on their costs of net
emissions control.
In order to address these questions, organizations such
as the OECD could begin work on models of emissions trading: (a)
Models of national greenhouse gas limits, with and without
trading, for selected national (domestic) applications. (b)
Model of international greenhouse gas limits, with and without
international trading. In each case scenarios would address
whether: limits apply only to CO2, or to several gases; trading
is informal, or formal; trading involves sinks, or not; sales or
leases; expiration of allowances; etc. As to international
trading, scenarios would also address whether nations trade or
private entities trade. The models should allow estimation of
environmental impacts as well as economic results.
3. Division of labor: farming out work to those with
expertise and interest.
COST EFFECTIVE POLICY RESPONSES
TO GLOBAL WARMING
Prepared by:
Erik Haites
Principal
Barakat & Chamberlin
Toronto, Ontario
and
Tom Tietenberg
Department of Economics
Colby College
Waterville, Maine
May, 1990
8910/papers
PRELIMINARY DRAFT
DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
COMMENTS WELCOMED
COST EFFECTIVE POLICY RESPONSES TO GLOBAL WARMING
I.
Introduction
Some gases that make up only a small part of the atmosphere absorb
a great deal of the heat radiated by the Earth. The heat absorbed by these
trace gases warms the lower atmosphere creating a greenhouse effect.
Carbon dioxide is estimated to be responsible for approximately half (49%) of
the greenhouse effect. Other gases that contribute to climate warming
include: methane (18%), chlorofluorocarbons (14%), nitrous oxide (6%),
ozone (6%), and other gases (6%).
Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide have risen by 25 percent
since 1800. Atmospheric concentrations of most of the other greenhouse
gases have been rising more rapidly than that of carbon dioxide. Increased
concentrations of the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will raise the
average temperature, although the speed and extent of the global warming
are uncertain.
To study the consequences of global warming, scientists have
analysed the consequences of doubling the carbon dioxide concentration in
the atmosphere. Global climate models predict that if the carbon dioxide
concentration doubles, the average temperature will rise between 1.5 and
4.5 °C. The equivalent of a doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations could
occur before the end of the next century unless steps are taken to reduce
emissions of greenhouse gases.
Climate warming on this scale poses serious threats to the planet,
including rising sea levels, the spread of disease and mass starvation in poor
countries and loss of plant species and animal habitats.
1
Scientists estimate that to stabilize the Earth's climate will entail that
current emissions of greenhouse gases, except methane, be cut by at least
60 percent. As an interim target, the Toronto Climate Conference proposed
reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 20 percent from 1988 levels by 2005.
The feasibility of this target has been studied for a number of countries.
Generally it is found to be a very challenging target. Regardless of the
specific interim target adopted, stabilizing the Earth's climate poses a
formidable challenge. Every possible means of reducing emissions of
greenhouse gases will need to be deployed in pursuit of that goal.
Given the scale of the challenge, the policies adopted to meet the
interim targets, and ultimately stabilize the climate, will need to be cost-
effective. In this paper we draw upon the experience with emissions
abatement policies for other pollutants in various countries to mould a
composite set of policies which we believe hold promise for encouraging
cost-effective, enforceable, international efforts to reduce emissions of
greenhouse gases. In contrast to other discussions of this topic we suggest
that the most effective approach involves different types of policies targeted
on the areas where they work best, but orchestrated to produce the greatest
reductions at the lowest cost.
The paper begins by establishing the context for the reduction of
greenhouse gases. Next, it briefly reviews what we know about the
advantages and disadvantages of cost-effective policies. These insights are
then used to propose policies that might be implemented to mitigate global
warming at the international level and at the national level. The last section
presents our conclusions.
II.
The Context
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is reviewing
the scientific evidence on global climate change, assessing the socio-
2
economic implications of global warming and analysing possible response
strategies. Over 70 countries are now participating on the IPCC. The final
report of the IPCC is expected to be published in the fall of 1990.
As an outgrowth of the work of the IPCC, discussions on the
development of a framework convention on climate change have started. It is
expected to involve a convention and protocols for reducing emissions of
carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. The framework convention is
expected to be adopted in 1991 or 1992. Policies for reduction of
greenhouse gases should facilitate, and if possible encourage, adherence to
the international agreements by as many countries as possible.
Emission Reduction Targets
One component of the convention on climate change is likely to be a
set of emission reduction targets specified for each country. Not only has
the Montreal Protocol, the international agreement which sets ceilings on
production of ozone depleting gases, established the precedent, but several
countries have announced plans unilaterally to limit their emissions. Norway
has adopted a target of stabilizing CO2 emissions by 2000, the Netherlands
and Canada have committed themselves to stabilizing CO2 emissions at 1990
levels by 2000, and Great Britain has announced an objective of reducing
CO2 emissions by 30% from projected levels by 2005 (approximately the
same as stabilization at 1990 levels).
These are only interim targets. Climate stabilization will require a series
of progressively more stringent targets until emissions of carbon dioxide and
most other greenhouse gases have been cut by over 60 percent from current
levels. Control policies for greenhouse gases should recognize the need for
further reductions in emissions and be designed to achieve those reductions
with a minimum of disruption.
3
Carbon Dioxide Emission Reduction Options
The dominant anthropogenic source of carbon dioxide emissions is the
combustion of fossil fuels. The carbon dioxide emissions vary significantly by
fuel type, but they are relatively stable over time and for different combustion
conditions. In other words, carbon dioxide emissions can be determined
fairly accurately from fuel use.
Studies of options for reducing carbon dioxide emissions consistently
show that improved energy efficiency is the most cost-effective strategy
available over the next decade or two. In developed countries, reduced use
of fossil fuels is likely to be the backbone of the carbon dioxide emissions
control strategy. Other options include fuel switching and reforestation. Fuel
switching covers both substitution of fossil fuels with lower emissions per unit
of energy (e.g., natural gas) for fossil fuels with relatively higher carbon
dioxide emissions (e.g., coal) and substitution of non-fossil energy (e.g.,
hydro-electric, nuclear, solar) for fossil fuels.
The analyses completed to date suggest that fuel switching or
reforestation alone could not achieve sufficient reduction in forecast carbon
dioxide emissions to meet the proposed interim targets nor those adopted to
date. Improved energy efficiency is the most promising means of achieving
significant reductions in carbon dioxide emissions over the next two decades.
To go beyond the interim targets will require more substitution of non-fossil
energy for fossil fuels because of the diminished scope for further efficiency
improvements.
Policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will need to encourage
adoption of the optimum mix of energy-efficiency improvements, fuel
switching, reforestation and other measures if the interim and ultimate targets
are to be achieved in the most cost-effective manner.
4
III. Cost-Effective Pollution Control
Cost-Effective Pollution Control
How can the necessary reductions be achieved in a cost-effective
manner? What policies will be needed?
The theory of cost-effective pollution control is new well established.¹
Cost-effective control is defined as that allocation which meets the predefined
target at minimum cost. Cost-effectiveness is distinguished from efficient
pollution control. Efficiency requires that the pollution target maximize the net
benefits to society while cost-effectiveness seeks to meet a predetermined
target at minimum cost. That predefined target may or may not maximize the
net benefits to society.
The conditions that a cost-effective allocation of control must satisfy
depend on the nature of the pollutant. If the location of the emissions is
important, the pollutants are called nonuniformly mixed. If location does not
matter, the pollutants are referred to as uniformly mixed. For uniformly mixed
pollutants, it is enough to control the aggregate level of emissions.
Greenhouse gases are uniformly mixed pollutants.
For uniformly mixed pollutants a cost-effective allocation is achieved
when the marginal control costs are equalized across all sources. It is the
total greenhouse gas emission reduction that counts, not where the
emissions occur. Equal magnitude reductions in India and Canada would
have the same impact on global warming. A cost-effective allocation of
1
Baumol, William, and Oates, Wallace E., The Theory of Environmental Policy
(Englewood Cliff, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1975). For a textbook treatment see Tom
Tietenberg, Environmental and Natural Resource Economics, 2nd ed.,
(Glenview, IL: Scott, Foresman & Co., 1988).
5
reductions is achieved when the marginal cost of reductions in India is the
same as the marginal cost of reductions in Canada and every other country.
The two primary policy instruments for achieving cost-effective control
are emission taxes and transferable emission permits. Traditional command
and control regulations generally do not equalize marginal control costs
across all sources and so do not achieve cost-effective control.
Emission Taxes
Emission tax approaches involve charging a per unit fee on each unit of
pollutant emitted into the atmosphere. They offer the potential for using
market forces to produce a cost-effective allocation of the pollution control
responsibility, a result not even remotely possible under traditional command-
and-control regulation. Why emission charges allow cost-effective control,
but standard command-and-control regulations do not, is not difficult to
understand.
An important theorem in environmental economics demonstrates that
polluters faced with emission taxes will minimize their costs by controlling
discharges until the marginal cost of control is equal to the per unit tax. More
control would raise costs unnecessarily because the cost of the additional
control would exceed the cost of simply paying the tax. Less control would
also result in an unnecessarily high cost, because the tax paid on
uncontrolled emissions would exceed the cost of eliminating those emissions.
Taken together with the necessary conditions for cost-effectiveness,
this theorem implies that forcing all polluters to face the same per unit tax on
emissions results in an allocation of the control responsibility that is cost-
effective; the marginal costs are equalized by polluters acting to minimize
their own costs. Since uniform tax rates may well be perceived as being
6
more just than differentiated taxes (and therefore administratively easier to
implement on a global basis), the finding that uniform taxes are a cost-
effective means of reducing emissions is a significant result.
Additional virtues of an emission tax are that it can stimulate the
development of environmentally benign technologies and that it can stimulate
the reduction, not merely the control, of discharges. Under a command-
and-control system based on emission standards, once the source has met
the legal standard further effort to reduce emissions is neither necessary nor
in its economic interest. With an emission tax, all uncontrolled emissions
constitute financial burden. Adopting a new control technology which permits
additional emission reductions at reasonable cost is an attractive strategy for
a source facing emission taxes, but not for a source currently meeting
emission standards. Hence emission taxes stimulate more efforts to control
and reduce emissions.
Emission taxes also produce revenue. In Europe, where emission
taxes are quite common, most of the revenue has been earmarked for
environmental improvement projects related to the taxed emissions.² For
example, revenue from taxes on water pollutants has been used to subsidize
waste treatment plants.
Emission taxes also have a significant disadvantage. Sources
confronted by emission taxes face an additional financial burden that serves
to diminish their enthusiasm for the approach. Under traditional command-
and-control regulation sources pay only for the required pollution control
equipment. With emission taxes, not only do they have to pay for the control
equipment, but they also have to pay taxes on uncontrolled emissions. A
number of studies have found that the additional financial burden associated
with the taxes can be substantial.
2
Sweden has already announced an emissions tax for carbon dioxide.
7
While some tactics to reduce the financial burden of emissions taxes
exist (tax rebates or taxing only emissions above a certain level), these tactics
have not been very successful in deflecting political opposition. In
recognition of, and in response to, this burden industries in the United States
have been reluctant to accept an emission tax approach. They fear that the
resulting rise in pollution control costs would make then competitively
vulnerable in world markets. In Europe concern over the financial burden has
not been sufficient to prevent emission taxes from being instituted, but it has
served to keep the tax rates lower than economists believe they should be.
Emissions Trading
In the United States, the economic incentive approach to cost-effective
pollution control has taken the form of emissions trading. Instead of putting a
price on pollution (the concept behind emission taxes), emissions trading
sets transferable quantity limits on emissions. Emissions trading begins with
traditional command-and-control regulation in which each discharge point is
assigned an emissions limit. Sources which voluntarily reduce pollution more
than required can have the excess reduction certified as an "emission
reduction credit." Certification is handled by the U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency. Only those reductions which are demonstrably surplus,
quantifiable, enforceable and permanent receive certification. Sources
comply with the law by combining sufficient emission reductions and
emission reduction credits to meet the legal standard.²
2
One way in which this approach was used rather creatively and successfully is
called the "offset" policy. In the mid-1970's several geographic regions in the
United States found themselves in violation of the ambient air quality
standards designed to protect human health. The law provided that new
industries would not be allowed to move into those areas if they emitted any
amount of the pollutant responsible for the standard being violated. Since
even sources adopting the most stringent control technologies would typically
have some emissions, in effect the policy prohibited new firms from locating in
nonattainment areas. This was a serious political blow to communities eager
to expand their employment and tax base. How could they allow economic
growth while assuring the air quality would improve to the level dictated by the
8
Emissions trading shares with emission taxes the characteristic that it
promotes both cost effectiveness and technology development. Cost
effectiveness is promoted because sources which can reduce their emissions
most cheaply choose to do so, selling the resulting emission reduction
credits to others. The proceeds can be used by the selling source to finance
the additional control. In these transfers the price of the emission reduction
credits plays the same role in stimulating cost-effectiveness as does the tax
rate in the emission charge system; it encourages a reallocation of control
responsibility until the marginal control costs are equalized. Similarly
technological progress is stimulated by emissions trading because additional
control creates emission reduction credits which can be sold.
One of the most significant characteristics of the emissions trading
approach is the opportunity it offers for cost sharing.³ With emissions
ambient standard?
To respond positively to this conflict of goals, regulators adopted the offset
policy. Under this policy any firm wanting to move into an area currently in
violation of the ambient air quality standard would be required to acquire
1.2 emission reduction credits for each 1.0 unit of emissions added by the
new plant. Since the resulting reduction from sources already located in the
area from existing sources would necessarily exceed the amount being added
by the new source, air quality would improve every time a new firm moved
into the area. With this policy the confrontation between economic growth
and environmental protection was diffused. New firms were not only allowed
to move into polluted cities, but they became a vehicle for improving the
quality of air. With the offset policy, economic growth facilitated, rather than
blocked, air quality improvement.
3
It is not at all uncommon for some emission sources to be underregulated
due to their financial vulnerability. When firms are on the brink of going out of
business, regulators are reluctant to subject them to stringent regulations
which might push them over the brink. Yet in many cases the cost of
securing additional emission reductions from these sources would be
substantially lower than the cost of securing further reductions from already
controlled sources. Under traditional command-and-control regulations the
emissions from financially vulnerable sources would remain uncontrolled while
remaining sources would necessarily be controlled to a proportionally higher
degree.
9
trading, sources can voluntarily create emission reduction credits, using the
revenue from the sale of those credits to finance the cost of additional
control. Meanwhile sources purchasing emission reduction credits find
acquiring the credits a cheaper alternative than controlling their own
emissions to a correspondingly higher degree. In effect emissions trading
separates the financing of emission reductions from the actual
implementation of those reductions. The fact that trading reduces
compliance costs usually means that improvements are achieved more
quickly and with less litigation than with regulated emissions limits.
Emissions trading now covers the gases associated with stratospheric
ozone depletion. As part of its strategy to fulfill the requirements of the
Montreal protocol, the Unites States has adopted a system of transferable
production and consumption allowances for the controlled substances named
by the agreement. To produce (or consume) these substances it is
necessary to possess the required number of production (consumption)
allowances. The allowances were allocated to current producers
(consumers) on the basis of 1986 production (consumption) levels. The
amount of production (consumption) permitted by the allowances declines
over time in accordance with the reductions mandated by the protocol. By
making these production (consumption) allowances fully transferable, the
government sought to stimulate technological progress in the area and to
facilitate the flow of allowances from those who can most easily find
substitutes to those who cannot. As market forces change, the transferability
of these allowances assures that the allocation of the control responsibility
can adjust to the changes, while assuring continued compliance with the
terms of the agreement.
10
Some Lessons⁴
Because we now have quite a bit of practical experience with using
emission taxes and transferable emissions permits, it is possible to extract
some lessons from that experience. These lessons provide the background
for targeting each component where it works best.
Emissions trading integrates particularly smoothly into any policy
structure which is based either directly (through emission standards) or
indirectly (through mandated technology or input limitations) on quantitative
emission reduction targets. Emissions charges are superior when the policy
target can be expressed in monetary terms such as a revenue targets or a
marginal damage estimate.
Emissions taxes are superior when transactions costs associated with
certification and/or bargaining are high. It appears that much of the trading
activity in the United States has involved large corporations. Emissions
trading is probably not equally applicable to large and small pollution
sources. The transactions costs are sufficiently high that only large trades
can absorb them without jeopardizing the gains from trade. For this reason
taxes seem a more appropriate instrument when sources are individually
small, but numerous (such as residences or automobiles). Taxes also work
well as a device for raising revenue to subsidize environmentally benign
projects or to replace other revenue-raising mechanisms.
Because emissions trading allows the issue of who will pay for the
control to be separated from who will install the control, it introduces an
additional degree of flexibility. This flexibility is particularly important when
control requirements are very stringent since marginal control costs are so
4
This section relies heavily on T.H. Tietenberg, "Economic Instruments for
Environmental Regulation," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol. 6, No. 1,
(Spring, 1990), pp. 17-33.
11
high. It also allows the cost of compliance to be apportioned equitably
across all sources regardless of their compliance options.
Emissions trading places more importance on operating permits and
emissions inventories than other approaches. Firms which have actual levels
of emissions substantially below allowable emissions find themselves with a
trading opportunity which, if exploited, could degrade air quality. The trading
benchmark has to be defined carefully.
There can be little doubt that the emissions trading programme in the
U.S. has improved upon the command-and-control programme that preceded
it. The documented cost savings are large and the flexibility provided has
been important. Similarly emissions charges have achieved their own
measure of success in Europe. To be sure the programs are far from
perfect, but the flaws should be kept in perspective. Although economic
incentive approaches lose their utopian lustre upon closer inspection, they
have nonetheless made a lasting, impressive contribution to environmental
policy.
Economic Incentives for Greenhouse Gases
Economic incentive approaches should play a substantial role in
policies to deal with global warming if for no other reason than that
greenhouse gases fall within the domain where economic incentive policies
have been most successful. Greenhouse gases are uniformly mixed gases
for which economic incentives are appropriate. In addition larger trading
areas facilitate greater cost reductions than smaller trading areas. This
augers well for the use of emissions trading as part of the strategy to control
global warming because the natural trading areas are all very large indeed.
Greenhouse gases could (indeed should!) involve trading areas that are
global in scope. Finally it seems clear that the pivotal role of carbon dioxide
in global warming may require some fairly drastic changes in energy use,
12
including changes in personal transportation, and ultimately land use
patterns. Some form of charges could play an important role in facilitating
this transformation.
Finally, economic incentive approaches can reduce costs substantially
when standard command-and-control approaches distribute the burden in a
particularly cost ineffective way. As Figure 1 indicates, that appears to be the
case with global warming. The discrepancies appear to be most pronounced
in the industrial and electricity generation sectors. These are precisely the
sectors most likely to offer and use large emission reduction credits, the sorts
of trades most likely to be economically attractive.
IV. Distributing the Control Responsibility Among Nations
Our proposed approach involves a two-tiered system of policies. The
first tier governs the allocation of emission reduction responsibilities among
the nations of the world. The second tier allocates the national responsibility
for emission reduction among the various within each nation.
This division has some appealing features. The first tier is handled by
international agreements and is subject to international enforcement. The
infringement of national sovereignty, however, is limited to the total amounts
of greenhouse gases emitted in that country each year. How each country
chooses to reach its target is left to its discretion; the second tier policy is
determined entirely by that nation.
National Emissions Targets
As indicated earlier, we believe that international agreements on global
warming are likely in the near future and that these will contain specific
aggregate annual emission targets for greenhouse gases with deadlines for
compliance. Those interim targets are likely to be reduced several times in
13
FIGURE 1
IMPACTS OF MOST COST-EFFECTIVE MEASURES
TARGET
1988
LEGEND:
Residential
and Commercial
120
70
2005 emissions after
forecast 2005
Implementing the most
emissions relative to
cost effective measures
1988 emissions
relative to 1988
Industrial
135
105
Transportation
140
75
Electricity
Generation
205
10
80 100
Source:
Calculated 1989. from The DPA Group Study on the Reduction of Energy-Related Greenhouse Gas Emissions, March
the future before the climate is stabilized. The compliance procedures will
require updated emissions inventories sufficiently detailed that they can be
verified.
It is likely that the national targets embodied in the international
agreements will not distribute the control burden among countries in a cost-
effective manner. One possibility that has been discussed, for example, is to
set targets for developing countries above current emission levels. To
achieve a given global reduction, developed countries would then need to cut
their emissions by more than this overall target. This implies zero marginal
cost of emissions reduction for developing countries and positive marginal
costs of emission reduction for developed countries. The marginal costs of
emissions reduction are not equal for all sources, so the control burden is
not allocated in a cost-effective manner. However fair this approach is, it is
certainly not cost-effective.
Nations with the lowest cost means of reducing emissions will not be
exploiting those opportunities. Many countries which have low marginal
costs of emission reduction also have few resources to devote to
environmental protection. Eastern European and Third World Nations fit in
this category. The costs of achieving the targets in the international
agreements will be unnecessarily high unless economic incentive approaches
are adopted.
Emission Permits are Better
While in principle either emissions taxes or transferable emission
permits could solve the problem, we believe that emission permits have the
edge internationally. Since they are quantity based, emission permits are
completely and immediately compatible with quantity-based international
14
agreements. Emissions trading can produce a cost-effective outcome
without imposing an extra financial burden.
Emissions trading can also facilitate international cost-sharing in a
manner which encourages the full participation of both Eastern European and
Third World nations. If the carbon dioxide reduction targets for developing
countries are less stringent than those for developed countries, emissions
trading can create an economic incentive for Eastern European and Third
World countries to become signatories to the international agreements.
To demonstrate how this would work, consider an example. Suppose
Malawi can reduce carbon dioxide emissions for $1,000 per unit while
Canada could reduce emissions for $4,000 a unit. Suppose that according to
the international agreement, Malawi is in compliance while Canada needs
further reductions to meet its target.
With emissions trading, Malawi could control more than required by the
international agreement, selling the excess to Canada. The sale of the
credits would supply the funds to more than cover the Malawian surplus
control (say $1,500 per unit). Canada would also be better off. By
purchasing these credits at $1,500 per unit it eliminates the need to spend
$4,000 per unit to meet its requirements. The costs of compliance have been
5
Emission taxes impose a large financial burden that can be avoided by
emission permits. The tax payments would be very large indeed, perhaps
even larger than the financial outlays on control equipment or energy
efficiency. These burdens diminish national enthusiasm for participating in the
agreements, not only for Eastern European and Third World Countries, but for
the United States and other countries with demonstrated aversions to tax
increases.
The emission tax necessary to reach the international target would have to be
estimated. Furthermore since each nation would have a different emission
reduction assignment, the tax rate compatible with that assignment would
differ from nation to nation. But from the previous discussion we know that
different tax rates cannot allocate the responsibility for control cost-effectively.
15
substantially lowered and both countries benefit economically. The economic
benefits may induce more countries to participate.
Certification of Emission Credits
In principle an international agency could be designated to certify
emission credits for international trade. A country would need to
demonstrate that its emission reductions exceeded its agreed target, are
permanent, are enforceable under its laws and can be reliably quantified in
order to receive certification from the designated agency. The certification
process would need to be backed by appropriate international sanctions.
This approach entails a considerable surrender of sovereignty by participating
nations and the creation of an international bureaucracy.
The alternative is to rely on each country's own certification process.
This gives rise to two concerns, namely that:
the certification process for emissions permits will not be equally
rigorous in all countries; and
countries may sell permits based on future reductions and then
not be able to achieve those commitments.
These issues are examined in turn.
Each country that wishes to participate in an international emissions
permit trading system will need to establish its own certification process and
national emissions trading system. Once they are in place, each country can
decide which permits from other countries it will choose to allow in its system.
The analogy of inspection standards for foodstuffs is appropriate. Each
country decides which foodstuffs can be imported on the basis of the
inspection system in the country of origin. In some cases the importing
16
country sends inspectors to the processing plants in the exporting countries.
Similar arrangements are likely to evolve for international trades in carbon
dioxide emission permits.
The concern over the sale of emission permits that involve future
reductions can be addressed in a straightforward manner. Countries with
surplus allowable emissions could create permits to reflect the reductions
from target already achieved. Some countries might choose to restrict the
purchase of emissions credits from other countries to emissions reductions
already achieved.
We believe that reliance on the domestic certification processes is the
more likely alternative.
IV.
National Policies
The first-tier policy establishes the allocation of responsibility among
nations. Each country would limit its emissions to the amount authorized by
the international agreement plus the net amount of emissions credits
purchased from and sold to other countries. It is our belief that the best
policy mix for reaching that target would combine emission taxes in some
sectors with emissions trading in others. The policy measures best suited to
each sector are reviewed below.
Transportation Sector
In the transportation sector carbon dioxide emissions vary with the type
and quantity of fuel used. To influence fuel use so as to obtain a cost-
effective reduction of emissions in this sector, there are three options:
emission taxes;
17
emission permits for consumers; or
emission permits for fuel distributors.
These options are discussed below.
First, it should be noted that energy efficiency standards for vehicles
are not a substitute for emission taxes or emission permits. Emissions are
related to total fuel use which is the product of vehicle fuel efficiency and
distance travelled. Fuel efficiency standards do not determine the distance
travelled and so have only a partial influence on emissions. An emissions tax
or emissions permit is needed to influence distance travelled. Energy
efficiency standards are compatible with emission taxes and permits.⁶
An emissions tax (carbon tax) would raise the cost of fuel and so
reduce the distance travelled. An emissions tax alone or in combination with
vehicle energy efficiency standards, could achieve a 20 to 25 percent
reduction from current transportation fuel use and hence carbon dioxide
emissions by 2005. They also move vehicle design in the direction needed to
achieve further reductions in emissions beyond the interim target.⁷
To restrict carbon dioxide emissions to target levels, individual
consumers would need to be issued with fuel coupons to control their
purchases. Emissions permits would be issued for unused fuel coupons.
6
A tax may be needed to make the energy efficiency standards effective.
7
Non-fossil transportation fuels--ethanol from biomass, electricity and
hydrogen--contain less energy per unit weight when stored in a vehicle (e.g., a
charged battery) than gasoline or diesel fuel. Improvements in vehicle fuel
efficiency will allow vehicles to operate in the manner that owners expect (e.g.,
trip length and refueling frequency) with less total energy, thus minimizing the
disadvantage of the non-fossil fuels.
18
Implementing an emissions trading system at the consumer level would
require an equitable system for distributing fuel coupons. The distribution
system for fuel coupons gives rise to a number of issues. For example,
should coupons be distributed to drivers or to vehicles? Should commercial
drivers/vehicles receive larger allocations? No doubt, these issues can all be
resolved satisfactorily.
Two markets would probably arise. A market for fuel coupons as a
right to purchase fuel and a market for fuel coupons for conversion to
emissions permits. The fuel coupons would probably attract a higher price
as a right to purchase fuel.⁸ The demand for gasoline is relatively inelastic
and there are few substitutes. On the other hand, many other options for
reducing carbon dioxide emissions are available. In short, the fuel coupons
are more likely to serve as a basis for allocating available transportation fuels
than as a means of achieving further reductions in carbon dioxide emissions.
The carbon dioxide emissions of the transportation sector could also
be controlled by limiting the supplies of transportation fuels--gasoline, diesel,
aviation turbo, propane for vehicles--at the distributor level. Since the
objective is to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, the quantity of fuel supplied
must be reduced. The result would be periodic shortages or price increases
for transportation fuels. Shortages and/or price rises would be unpopular
with the public and would undermine support for the carbon dioxide
reduction effort.
Distributors of transportation fuels could purchase emissions permits to
enable them to supply larger quantities of fuel. The prices of the permits
would be passed on to customers in higher fuel prices. In equilibrium the
cost per unit of fuel of the emissions permits purchased should be equal to
8
A high carbon or environmental tax may reduce the demand for transportation
fuels to the point where this is not the case. Then it is the taxes that achieve
the emissions reduction. The fuel coupons serve little purpose.
19
the emissions tax needed to achieve the same reduction. Rising prices
and/or shortages would create public pressure for exemptions or
abandonment of the system.
In summary, the transportation sector offers three options:
emission taxes;
fuel coupons; or
emissions trading by fuel distributors.
The first option appears to be the best. It can achieve the desired reduction
in carbon dioxide emissions alone or in combination with legislated fuel
performance standards with virtually no administration. It also leads vehicle
design in the direction needed to achieve further reductions in emissions
beyond the interim target.
A system of fuel coupons is likely to generate a market for fuel
coupons as such rather than yield further reductions in carbon dioxide
emissions. Introducing emissions trading at the distributor level is likely to
lead to rising fuel prices and possibly shortages. In short, the role of
emissions trading in achieving a target reduction in carbon dioxide emissions
from the transportation sector is likely to be small.
Residential Sector
In the residential sector carbon dioxide emissions are dominated by the
use of fossil fuel for space heating and, to a lesser extent, space cooling and
water heating. Use of electricity for appliances has an indirect impact on
carbon dioxide emissions through electricity generation. The carbon dioxide
20
emissions of the sector are directly related to the quantities of the various
fossil fuels used.
The options for reducing the carbon dioxide emissions of the residential
sector are analogous to those discussed for the transportation sector. Fuel
coupons would be needed to control the emissions of individual households.
The coupons would reduce fuel use from current levels. Poor management
on the part of the homeowner or unusual weather patterns could leave
individual households without fuel during cold weather or heat waves, with
possible health consequences for young children, the sick and the elderly.
The consequences of fuel shortages, even if due to poor planning by the
homeowner, are likely to be publicly unacceptable.
Instituting emissions trading at the distributor level for home heating
fuels creates the likelihood of price increases and the possibility of shortages.
Again, the consequences are not acceptable.
An emissions (carbon) tax, alone, or together with energy efficiency
standards for residential buildings and appliances, can reduce energy
consumption by 20 to 25 percent from current levels in the residential sector.
The interim target reduction in carbon dioxide emissions can be achieved
with little administration through such taxes. The emissions taxes and energy
performance regulations would help move building and equipment technology
in the direction needed to achieve further reductions in carbon dioxide
emissions.
The best option for the residential sector, as with the transportation
sector, appears to be improved energy efficiency through emission taxes
alone or in combination with energy efficiency standards.
21
Commercial Sector
Fossil fuel in the commercial sector is used primarily for space heating
and cooling. Emission taxes alone, or in combination with energy efficiency
standards for buildings and equipment can achieve significant reductions in
fuel use and carbon dioxide emissions.
Commercial sector installations can be large sources of carbon dioxide.
The possibility of emissions trading may be attractive for such sources. In
many instances commercial buildings would convert from fossil fuel to
electricity. This might raise carbon dioxide emissions of the electricity utility.
Commercial facilities above a specified size (annual energy use or fossil
fuel consumption) would be assigned an individual carbon dioxide emissions
reduction target. This target, say a 20 to 25 percent reduction, would be
calculated in relation to base year fuel use. Reductions beyond the target
reduction could be certified for emissions trading purposes. However, the
additional reductions would first be offset by any increase in carbon dioxide
emissions imposed on the electric utility or other energy supplier.⁵
The net emissions reduction achieved could be certified annually on the
basis of actual results. Or, in the case of a permanent conversion of a
heating or air conditioning system, the net emissions could be cumulated
over the remaining life of the existing system. Any new facilities above the
specified size would need to purchase permits for any emissions generated.
Small commercial facilities could be handled in the same manner as the
residential sector.
9
The offset is a matter of policy, but it seems unfair to allow a firm to benefit
financially through the sale of emissions credits while having transferred the
compliance burden to the electric utility. The offset provision would prevent
such inequities.
22
Industrial Sector and Electric Utilities
Industrial plants and fossil-fueled electric generating stations above a
specified size are obvious candidates to participate in an emissions trading
program. Each facility or firm would be assigned a carbon dioxide emissions
reduction target related to the national target.¹⁰ Reductions beyond the target
could be offset by any increase in carbon dioxide emissions imposed on the
electric utility or other energy supplier.¹¹ The net reduction achieved could be
certified for emissions trading purposes.
The net emissions reduction achieved could be certified annually on the
basis of actual results. Or, in the case of a permanent conversion of a
heating or air conditioning system, the net emissions could be cumulated
over the remaining life of the existing system. Any new facilities above the
specified size would need to purchase permits for any emissions generated.
In summary, emissions trading is best suited to large commercial,
industrial and utility sources. Existing sources of carbon dioxide emissions
are treated as having a right to continue such emissions at a reduced level
for the remaining life of the facility. This right can be used or sold. All new
sources have to purchase emissions permits. The supply of emissions
permits from existing sources will decline as those facilities go out of service.
Government then becomes the principal source of permits and it can limit the
supply to meet future reductions in the target for carbon dioxide emissions.
10
The targets could be set for each plant or firm (multiple plants). If they are set
on a firm basis, the firm can "trade" emissions internally without having to go
through the certification process. The difficulty that can arise in setting targets
on a firm basis is that the national target may be apportioned among states
and plants may be located in different states.
11
An emissions permit could be issued for switching from a fuel with higher
carbon dioxide emissions per unit of energy (e.g., coal) to a fuel with lower
emissions (e.g., natural gas).
23
Emissions taxes, alone or in conjunction with energy performance
standards, are the best means of reducing carbon dioxide emissions from the
numerous small sources in the residential and transportation sectors.
Emissions taxes are notoriously difficult to implement and, once implemented,
to change. We suggest that the emissions taxes for the residential, small
commercial and transportation sectors be linked to the market price for
emission permits. For example, the price of emission permits, expressed in
dollars per ton of carbon, during the second and third quarters of one year
would determine the emission tax for the first half of the following year. This
ensures equitable treatment for all sources.
V.
Extension to Other Greenhouse Gases
Assuming an emissions trading system is operating nationally for
carbon dioxide, should it be extended to other greenhouse gases or to
reforestation? This section addresses those questions.
Methane
Methane is the second largest contributor to the greenhouse effect.
The principal man-made sources are: leaks from petroleum and natural gas
production, transmission and distribution; seepage from land fill sites;
dissociation from coal as a result of mining activity; and sewage treatment.
Collection and combustion of such fugitive methane reduces the greenhouse
effect because methane is 21 times as potent as carbon dioxide in terms of
its climate impact.¹²
Currently measures to control methane emissions apply primarily to the
petroleum and natural gas industry. Natural gas is essentially pure methane,
12
Potency is expressed on a per molecule basis.
24
so there is an economic incentive to reduce emissions. Methane emissions
are lost product and hence lost revenue. The transmission and distribution
system are carefully monitored to detect leaks because they can cause
explosions. 13 Methane emissions from the transmission and distribution
systems are, as a result, relatively small.
Most of the methane emissions by the petroleum and natural gas
industry occur at the production stage. Natural gas may be released during
testing of new wells. Natural gas is also obtained as a by-product from oil
wells. If there is no natural gas collection system near the oil well, the
by-product gas is usually released or burned. Regulatory authorities in
producing areas have strict rules governing release of natural gas in these
circumstances.
Regulations governing methane emissions from coal mines, landfills,
sewage treatment plants and other sources can also be found. These
regulations are aimed at preventing the accumulation of explosive or toxic
concentrations of methane. Where fugitive methane is collected to comply
with such regulations it is usually vented or flared. Markets for fugitive
methane from these sources are scarce, since it generally does not meet
quality standards for natural gas fuel. An emission trading system could
provide an economic incentive to collect and use fugitive methane.
In principle, extension of a carbon dioxide emissions trading system to
methane provides a cost-effective mechanism for reducing fugitive methane
emissions and so mitigating the greenhouse effect. To extend the carbon.
dioxide emissions trading system to methane, it is necessary to measure the
reduction from allowable emissions actually achieved.
13
Concentrations of methane in air of 4.5 to 14.0% are explosive.
25
Current emissions of fugitive methane by specific sources are not
known. Apart from the petroleum and natural gas industry, the current
recovery of fugitive methane emissions is known; in most cases it is zero but
in the few cases where it is recovered the amount recovered can be
measured. A base methane emission rate can be established before, or at
the time of, installation of collection system.
Tradeable emissions permits could be issued for any fugitive methane
recovered and used beyond the prescribed reduction up to the base
emission rate. Methane equivalent to the target share of base emissions
would need to be recovered and used before emissions credits are
awarded. 14 Additional methane recovered and used, up to the base emission
rate, could be converted to tradeable emissions permits.
Permits could be issued annually for the methane recovered and used
during the previous year. Sale of the recovered methane as natural gas or
combustion of the recovered methane for space heating, electricity
generation or other uses would constitute evidence of combustion. The
methane eligible for a tradeable emission permit could be converted to a
carbon dioxide equivalent. The equivalence factor would reflect the relative
potency of methane in terms of climate warming and its shorter atmospheric
lifetime.
The base emission rate must be established before, or at the time that,
the collection system is installed because the rate of methane generation
from landfills, coal mines, and some other sources can be manipulated.
Thus the methane collected could exceed the base rate by a significant
margin. Limiting the emissions permits to the difference between the base
14 This is a policy option. Sources of CO2 emissions would be required to
reduce their emissions to achieve the interim target at their own expense. The
analogy is that a similar share of the fugitive methane is recovered at the
owner's cost.
26
emission rate and the allowable emissions would prevent abuse of the
system.
The system outlined would exclude the petroleum and natural gas
industry because of the difficulties of establishing a base emissions rate.
However, it already has regulatory and economic incentives to reduce natural
gas leakage.
Chlorofluorocarbons
Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are the third largest contributor to the
greenhouse effect. CFCs are also the major cause of the depletion of the
stratospheric ozone layer. An international agreement--the Montreal
Protocol--has been negotiated to reduce the production of CFCs by
50 percent during the 1990's. Scientific opinion is that larger cutbacks will be
needed to protect the ozone layer and several countries have announced
their intention to go beyond the Montreal Protocol.¹⁵
Including CFCs in a carbon dioxide emissions trading system would
provide an economic incentive to reduce those emissions even more quickly.
The difficulty with including CFCs in an emissions trading system is that there
are millions of small emissions; leaks from refrigerators or automobile air
conditioners, releases from aerosol sprays and CFCs that escape from foams
as they are crushed.
All CFCs are man made. There are no natural sources and there are
no commercial destruction technologies for CFCs. The Montreal Protocol
reduces emissions of CFCs by restricting their production. To include CFCs
in an emissions trading system, a tradeable permit could be based on lower
15
The Montreal Protocol is scheduled to be formally updated in London in June,
1990.
27
than permitted production. Since the Montreal Protocol only defines
production ceilings for specific dates, a more precise definition of allowable
production each year would be needed to determine the tradeable emissions
credits. The foregone production would be assumed to be the least potent
of the CFCs. If a commercial destruction process is developed for CFCs,
tradeable emissions permits could be issued for the quantities collected and
destroyed.
Whether based on foregone production, actual destruction, or both,
tradeable emission permits could be issued annually for actual performance
during the previous year. Initially, the equivalence of CFC emissions could be
based on CFC-11 which is estimated to be 12,000 times as potent as carbon
dioxide in terms of its climatic impact on a per molecule basis. However, as
production of CFCs is phased out during the 1990's, it will become
appropriate to shift the conversion to the "soft" chlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs)
currently being developed as substitutes.¹⁶
Nitrous Oxide and Tropospheric Ozone
Two significant contributors to global warming (nitrous oxide and
tropospheric ozone) do not lend themselves to inclusion in a greenhouse gas
emission trading system. Not enough is known about the sources and
possible control technologies for nitrous oxide at this time to provide a basis
upon which permits can be issued.
16
Soft chlorofluorocarbons contain hydrogen and/or do not contain chlorine or
bromine. They react with hydroxyl radicals found in the lower atmosphere
thereby degrading more quickly, often before reaching the stratosphere.
CFCs which contain only fluorine, rather than chlorine or bromine, do not
pose a threat to the ozone in the stratosphere. The "soft" CFCs, like today's
CFCs, are greenhouse gases. The objective of the current international
agreement on CFCs is to reduce the destruction of the stratospheric ozone
layer. Soft CFCs help achieve that objective, but they still contribute to the
greenhouse effect. A switch to soft CFCs means that these gases contribute
primarily to the greenhouse effect, rather than ozone depletion. This is
another reason for including CFCs in a CO2 emissions trading system.
28
Ozone is formed in the troposphere rather than emitted, so emissions
trading for ozone itself is not possible. The precursors of tropospheric ozone
are nitrogen oxide (NO₂) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) but the
relationship between emissions of NOₓ and VOCs and ozone formation is
complex. Under some circumstances, reducing NOₓ emissions can increase
ozone formation. The same applies to emissions of VOCs. Finally, ozone is
relatively short-lived and so is more of a regional than a national or global
problem.
Reforestation
Growing forests absorb carbon dioxide and sequester it until the tree
decays or is burned. The rate of carbon dioxide absorption varies
significantly by species and climate. Unless there is a commitment to
maintain the forest on a sustainable yield basis in perpetuity, reforestation
only sequesters the carbon dioxide temporarily. Temporarily in this case can
be 50 to 150 years. That is a significant contribution to dealing with the
mitigation of global warming.
In temperate climates reforestation is currently a relatively costly
approach to reducing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. The
ability to earn tradeable emissions credits would improve the economic
attractiveness of this option. Reforestation could create employment in areas
that are adversely affected by other measures to reduce emissions of
greenhouse gases. Hence, efforts should be made to include reforestation in
a carbon dioxide emissions trading system.
Permits could be based on annual or bi-annual "audits" of forest growth
actually achieved and estimated carbon dioxide sequestered, with an
appropriate discount to reflect the fact that the carbon dioxide probably will
not be sequestered permanently. Permits would be restricted to net
29
increases in forest growth. For example, pulp and paper or lumber
companies would need to replace all trees harvested before becoming
eligible for emissions permits.¹⁷ It might be necessary to apply this
requirement on a cumulative basis from the inception of the program to
preclude abuse through years of low activity followed by a period of intensive
reforestation.
VI. Conclusions
The advantages of economic incentive approaches in helping to
achieve environmental goals at the lowest overall cost are well known. They
reduce compliance costs, encourage the development of more environmental
benign technologies, and facilitate international cost-sharing where
appropriate.
The climate for using economic incentive approaches is supportive.
The problem of global warming is so serious that action is likely. Compliance
costs are high so the importance of cost-effectiveness as a policy objective is
elevated. Greenhouse gases are uniformly mixed pollutants, the type of
pollution problem where economic incentive approaches work best. And
finally, cost-sharing will probably be an essential component of any
international agreement as the condition for participation by Eastern
European and Third World countries.
If, as we expect, future international agreements on global warming
adopt as their modus operandi, quantitative limits on greenhouse gas
emissions from each nation, we believe that the policy objectives can be best
achieved by adopting a two-tier policy process. The first tier would allow
trading of emission reduction responsibilities among nations. Allowing
17 This same restriction would apply to other firms and individuals, such as
utilities that clear rights-of-way.
30
responsibilities to be transferable would facilitate lower compliance costs and
market-driven cost sharing. It would also provide economic incentives for
countries to become signatures to the agreements.
The second tier of policies, designed to achieve the emissions target
determined by the first tier, could also promote cost-effectiveness by
selectively targeting emissions taxes and emissions permits at those sectors
where they are most appropriate. We find emissions taxes to be better
suited to sources with relatively small emissions; vehicles, households and
small commercial establishments. Tradeable emissions permits are better
suited to large sources such as large commercial and industrial
establishments and fossil-fired electricity generating stations.
A carbon dioxide emissions trading system could, in our judgement, be
extended to include methane and CFCs as well as reforestation.
We live in an age when the call for tighter environmental controls
intensifies with each new discovery of yet another injury modern society is
inflicting on the planet. But resistance to additional controls is also growing
with the recognition that compliance with each new set of controls is more
expensive than the last. While economic incentive approaches to
environmental control offer no panacea, they frequently do offer a practical
way to achieve environmental goals more flexibly and at lower cost than more
traditional regulatory approaches. That is a compelling virtue.
31