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Global Climate [2]
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285411047
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Global Climate [2]
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Records of the White House Office of Policy Development (George H. W. Bush Administration)
Ed Goldstein Subject Files
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George H.W. Bush Presidential Records
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Policy Development, White House Office of
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Goldstein, Ed, Files
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06681
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Global Climate [2]
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22
29
4
HE makes it, who uses MAP Page 12
JULY 1990
WORLD
$3.50
Who
MONITOR
THE CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR® MONTHLY
COOLING IT
THE GLOBAL WARMING DEBATE
has gotten out of hand. Bush battles
other world leaders. Sununu irks
environmentalists. Columnists who've
never seen a lab are confusing the
public. To cool the battle (and cool the
next century) an expert explains what
we know and proposes an action plan.
By Stephen H. Schneider
ALSO:
NUTMEG WARS
REINVENTING MEN
MY JOB IN JAPAN EASIER LOANS
When their systems aren't integrated,
department
some businesses
running from
until finally
waste time and effort
to department
to department
WORLD
MONITOR
FROM THE EDITOR
THE CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR® MONTHLY
Editor in Chief EARL W. FOELL
Executive Editor RODERICK NORDELL
Managing Editor
NORMAN BLEICHMAN
Staff Editors
CLAYTON S. COLLINS
MARY K. SCHAAF
Dear Reader,
Editorial Assistant
BETTINA BURCH
Contributing
Editor
RICHARD A. NENNEMAN
The Cold War may be over; the Global Warming War isn't.
Production Director PAUL G. WOODSUM
The battle over whether or not the human race is warming its home planet to-
Art
Director
LAURA N. FRANK
ward bigger storms, drier farm belts, and flooded coastlines began, quietly
Senior Design Artist
DAVE HERRING
Photo Editor
JEAN I. TENNANT
enough, among scientists. Then it escalated.
Layout Artist
RICHARD H. FRANKLIN
The escalation came in roughly three stages: (1) Overdramatized media ac-
counts of the warming scenario. (2) A contrarian, often unscientific, counterattack
Publishing Director
FRANK
MCGILL
by commentators who claimed that the greenhouse effect was an unproven myth
Associate Publisher GARY W. THOMPSON
and that proposals to slow the buildup of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere
Circulation Director
SUSAN L. PAARDECAMP
were simply a new attack against industrial growth. (3) A major global policy de-
Circulation Analyst
LEE MANAUSA
bate in which leaders of both rich and poor nations are split over how much, if any,
Fulfillment Manager LYNNE R. OSBORN
worldwide action is needed to slow planetary warming.
Marketing Manager
DIANE PERKINS JOHNSON
This third stage has grabbed headlines because it pits George Bush (who wants
Communications
JENNIFER K. HAHN
Public Relations
GRACE E. GORDON
more study but little immediate action) against many other leaders. It even divides
Bush from his usual staunch ally, Oxford-trained chemist Margaret Thatcher. And,
Business Manager
TIMOTHY C. NORLAND
Business Assistant
COURTENAY L. DREVES
in the realm of political theater, the Global Warming War adds extra drama to the
Staff Assistant MARCIA E. SCHWARTZ
already much-relished struggle between Bush's éminence grise, MIT-trained
mechanical engineer John Sununu, and the chorus known collectively as The En-
The Christian Science Publishing Society
vironmentalists.
Manager NETTY DOUGLASS
Into this scene once more steps climatologist Stephen Schneider, author of this
WORLD MONITOR MAGAZINE
Editorial
month's cover story. Those of you who have read WORLD MONITOR from the begin-
One Norway Street
ning will remember a previous Schneider cover story, which brought concern over
Boston, MA 02115
(617) 450-2000
global warming to prominence in Washington. That story was waved prominently
Advertising Sales Offices
and favorably in front of a room full of interagency policy planners and represen-
NEW YORK CITY (212) 768-3377
tatives from major scientific bodies in late 1988. Soon thereafter, Schneider and
GORDON IMRIE JANE GREGG SALLY MINER
GARY W. THOMPSON
other atmospheric scientists, pro and con, were busy explaining their research at
ATLANTA (404) 591-9069
government hearings in the US and other industrial nations.
BETSY TEGTMEYER
As the man in charge of interpreting supercomputer climate modeling at
BOSTON (617) 450-2000
America's National Center for Atmospheric Research, Schneider is possibly the
JANE GREGG
most knowledgeable person on earth about what we do and don't know about glob-
CHICAGO (312) 559-0700
RUSS WELLER IRENE PARKER
al warming. He's blunt about what we don't know: the effect of volcanic ash, air-
DARRYL BENNETT HELEN MCQUILLAN
borne pollution particles, and variations of solar radiation on the immensely com-
CLEVELAND (216) 464-0555
plex equation that forms Earth's climate. He's also blunt about what we do know:
BILL NIEMAN
that a majority of climatologists place the global average temperature rise in the
DALLAS (212) 768-3377
GARY W. THOMPSON
next century at 1.5 to 4.5 degrees C if nothing is done to change current trends.
DETROIT (313) 332-9200
Dr. Schneider joins those who counsel prudent-certainly not anti-growth or
WILLIAM J. FLAVIN
LESLIE PALMER RON NOYD
bankrupting-steps by the community of nations to slow down CO₂ buildup.
Los ANGELES (714) 720-8460
Some of you occasionally complain that big power politics crowd out the affairs of
PAUL MESSER LISA HILLGREN
other, quieter peoples on the planet. This month we offer two antidotes: a warm,
SAN FRANCISCO (415) 781-4583
witty piece detailing the everyday virtues and mysteries of West African village life,
BoB FLAHIVE CHRISTINE TYE
and an exploration of Canada's far north and the plight of the Inuit/Eskimo people
Publication general management provided by
who spread sparsely all the way from Greenland to Siberia.
The MTA Group, New York, NY
That's the warm and cool of it until next month
The
Audit
MA
Bureau
Magazine Publishers of America
Earl W. Foell
© Copyright 1990 The Christian Science Publishing Society. All rights reserved. Printed in the USA. WORLD MONITOR: THE CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR MONTHLY (ISSN
0897-9472) is published monthly by The Christian Science Publishing Society, One Norway Street, Boston, MA 02115. US and Canada subscriber rate is $29.94 per year.
Overseas subscriber rate is $42.00 prepaid US per year. Second class postage paid at Boston, MA, and additional mailing offices.
Postmaster, send address changes to: WORLD MONITOR: THE CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR MONTHLY, P.O. Box 10544, Des Moines, IA 50340-0544.
Mailing Lists: We occasionally make our subscriber list available to carefully screened companies and organizations whose products, services, or fund-raising activities we
feel may interest some of our readers. If you do not wish to receive such mailings, please send a written request to us at the Iowa address listed above. Include a copy of your
address label.
For permission to reprint WORLD MONITOR articles, call 1-800-225-7090, ext. 2026, or write Copyright Administrator, P-429, One Norway Street, Boston, MA 02115.
Subscriber Services: 1-800-888-6261.
WORLD MONITOR
3
TM
digital
The sounds
of summer are
everywhere.
Digital Equipment Corporation and its employees are proud to sponsor
EVENING AT POPS on public television. Consult your local listings for time and station.
© Digital Equipment Corporation 1990. The DIGITAL logo is a trademark of Digital Equipment Corporation.
© 1990 Al Hirschfeld. Drawing reproduced by special arrangement with Hirschfeld's exclusive representative, The Margo Feiden Galleries, New York.
JULY 1990
VOL.3, NO. 7
WORLD
WORLD
MONITOR
COOLING IT
MONITOR
THE
DEBATE
THE CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR® MONTHLY
FEATURES
COVER:
30
COOLING IT by Stephen H. Schneider
Sun symbolizes heat
The global warming debate has gotten out of hand. To cool the bat-
of "greenhouse" con-
tle (and cool the next century), an expert explains what we know
troversy-and light
of reason to maintain
and don't know and proposes a plan of action.
perspective.
40
VOLCANO PROTECTION by Richard Read
Cover photo and
This year's lava damage in Hawaii draws attention to the drive for
reproductions on
pages 30, 33, 35, and
international measures to reduce risk and mitigate disaster in vol-
38 © Rob Atkins/The
canic regions.
Image Bank
42
CANADA'S NEW ARCTIC by George Tombs
Siberian visitors. A young elite. Threatened values. Signs of what
PAGE 42
happens when the modern world spreads to barren lands where wise ancient peoples had
been doing very well by themselves, thank you.
50
AN AMERICAN LEARNS TO WORK IN JAPAN by Daniel Chernin
A computer job can be hard even if you know the language. Let's say Mr. Ikeda didn't
PAGE 72
make things any easier, at least at the beginning.
58
NUTMEG WARS by Clayton Jones
With products worth their weight in gold, the Spice Islands lured Western fleets centuries
ago. Today a different turbulence echoes from Indonesia to post-invasion Grenada.
DEPARTMENTS
3
FROM THE EDITOR
67
CARS
The Race for Eastern Europe
6
LETTERS
By Maryann N. Keller
8
NOTES FROM PRACTICALLY EVERYWHERE
72
TRAVEL
The Time to Go to Guadeloupe
12
THE MAP
By Megumi Oka
Energy
77
PREVIEW
14
GUEST SPEAKER
TTE8-56
How Commuting Has Changed!
79
FOR A BETTER
By Walter C. Clemens Jr.
WORLD
PAGE 67
Destiny
18
INVESTING
Surviving the Credit Crunch
80
AT LARGE
By John P. Dessauer
Reinventing Men
By Melvin Maddocks
24
PEOPLES
Assigned to Guinea-Bissau
By Cameron Macauley
PAGE 58
WORLD MONITOR
5
Lowest
LETTERS
Price
'SAVING CENTRAL AMERICA'
Anywhere
Bruce Babbitt's otherwise excellent
article (May) completely omitted any
mention of Belize, the one country in
If your best friend
the region unique in the stability of its
the
were in the rare coin
political institutions, the nonviolence of
business, you couldn't get
its people, the near absence of racial
sponded by "decapitalizing" their en-
this quality for less
and ethnic prejudice, and the thought-
terprises. Rather than investing further
fulness of its government and in partic-
in their company or farm to increase
ular its longtime prime minister,
production, the owners would commonly
George Price. Belize is such a model of
reduce their current level of investment
what can be accomplished by a truly
and deposit the excess money in banks
national commitment to the common
in Miami.
good that it deserved special mention
ANDREW C. MILLS
by Mr. Babbitt.
Manson, Iowa
BRUCE STRATTON
Springfield, Ill.
'CLOWNS ON WHITE HORSES'
Babbitt refers to the upset win of
Re the At Large column (May) on
Uncirculated
Chamorro as spelling "the end of a
the humor of Václav Havel and others:
U.S. Peace Silver Dollars
failed Marxist economic experiment."
Presidents and dignitaries must fre-
This experiment was neither Marxist
quently perform like clowns to main-
$15
nor a failure. The Sandinista efforts
tain public popularity. Ex-president
As low as
each
certainly contained some Marxist ele-
Reagan entertained with disconnected
OUR COST
ments, but a mixed economy was en-
microphones, posing on a horse, chop-
couraged, great wealth remained in the
ping wood, etc. President Bush enter-
Why are we giving away guaranteed mint-
hands of the rich who chose to stay in
tained with inane rhetoric on pork
state Peace silver dollars at our cost? Simple:
Nicaragua, collectives were quickly
rinds, broccoli, and American-made
to get you to try us. Because once you're
acquainted with the way we do business -our
replaced by cooperatives when they
assault rifles. These gimmicks are
strict grading, prompt delivery, personalized
were seen to be unpopular and ineffec-
essential to maintain public popularity
service, money-saving discount catalogs and
tive. Religious observations continued
among the uninformed masses, while
free research reports-we're betting that you'll
central to Nicaraguan public as well as
leaders circumvent important political
want to continue ordering from us.
private life.
issues.
An unbeatable offer...
The experiment did not fail: It was
EDWARD WIEDERHOLD
Historic 1921-1935 U.S. Peace silver dollars
are much scarcer than Morgans and in our view
sabotaged. If I were to set up an exper-
La Porte, Ind.
undervalued today. Through this special offer,
iment in my lab, and someone came in
you can now acquire guaranteed Brilliant Uncir-
and turned off the gas, smashed the
'THATCHER'S BATTLE OF BRITAIN'
culated original 90% silver Peace dollars at our
glassware, and killed a number of
cost. Even if you had a friend or relative in the
skilled technicians, that would not be
Richard Critchfield's analysis of
coin business, you couldn't get a better deal - -
called a failed experiment. It would be
Britain (May) includes a reference to
or get coins selected with greater care. While
called a crime. Yet this is what our gov-
"football violence at Sheffield, Brad-
supplies last, we'll sell new customers guaran-
teed Miint-State Brilliant Uncirculated U.S.
ernment did to the Sandinista experi-
ford, Brussels, and Glasgow." The inci-
Peace silver dollars for the following prices: 1
ment in Nicaragua.
dent referred to at Sheffield-the
coin for $20, 5 for $95, 20 for $340 or 60 for $900
MARIA D. PETERS
Hillsborough tragedy of April 1989-
($15 per coin!) Limit 60 coins. (Order #7530).
Southampton, Penn.
was not caused by an act of violence.
No dealer orders accepted. All coins are early
Overcrowding, questionable police
1922-1924 dates (at least 65 years old), con-
The Nicaraguan economy contained
supervision, and poor safety standards
servatively graded by our ANA-trained experts
several socialist elements in it along
at the stadium were the major causes
and come with a certificate of authenticity. You
with market-controlled features. This
of the incident.
have a 30-day no-questions-asked return privi-
lege. To order by credit card, call toll-free
means it was a mixed economy. Such an
ALISTAIR BUDD
1-800-451-4463 at any time. Or send your
economy cannot be painted with the
London, England
check or money order to: International Coins &
brush "Marxism" unless one pays little
Currency, Inc., 11 E. State St., Box 218,
heed to truth. The Sandinistas consis-
Several of Britain's contributions to
Dept. 1594, Montpelier, t05601. As our way of
tently promoted programs to encour-
science and to medicine are mentioned.
saying thank you, your order will be shipped
age economic development of the pri-
Perhaps less significant, but notewor-
postpaid. You'll never get a better deal on mint-
state Peace dollars. Don't miss this opportunity!
vate sector, but the majority of the
thy, were what are regarded as the
All orders subject to acceptance.
industrial owners or large farmers re-
three greatest developments in naval
6
JULY 1990
FREE TAPE PLAYER
THE BERLITZ® GUARANTEE:
aircraft carrier technology: the angled
flight deck, the steam catapult, and the
mirror landing system. The US Navy
SPEAK A
uses all three of these technologies.
EARL E. EIGABROADT
Captain, US Army, Ret.
Port Orchard, Wash.
FOREIGN
'THE BALTIC WAY'
LANGUAGE IN
Walter Clemens has not only a re-
markably thorough grasp of Baltic reali-
ties but also a keen eye for subtleties
(May). Gorbachev has irreparably paint-
30 DAYS OR
ed himself into a corner. After admitting
that Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania
were illegally annexed by the Soviet
Union in 1940, he stubbornly clings to
YOUR
the fiction as if the Baltic countries still
were Soviet (or Russian) feudatories. To
call his bluff, one wants to cite Article 2
of the Treaty of Peace between Russia
MONEY BACK.
and Estonia of Feb. 2, 1920: "Russia
unreservedly recognizes the indepen-
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'NOTES FROM PRACTICALLY EVERYWHERE'
BERLITZ
I was very much interested in the
On Credit Card Orders Dial Toll Free:
Old News article (March). Being the
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daughter of a farmer, "Horse Collars"
THINK
caught my eye.
7 AUDIO CASSETTES
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THINK
BERLIZ
2 ILLUSTRATED MANUALS
I
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interested to know the horse collar
BILINGUAL POCKET DICTIONARY
served another purpose? When the fam-
ALL PACKED IN AN ATTACHE CASE
ily was expecting another member, a
new horse collar was purchased to use in
Available in -
place of the now popular playpen. Until
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Spanish
the baby was able to crawl out of it, it
German
Italian
was placed on the floor to hold the baby
like [today's] infant carrier. But of
Berlitz Publications, Inc., Dept.4898
course you could not carry the collar.
P.O. Box 506, 900 Chester Avenue, Delran, N.J. 08075
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the horse got a new collar.
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With my order, send me my Free Portable Cassette Player (10001) which is mine to
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WORLD MONITOR
7
INDONESIA
NOTES
"explosion in the demand for private net-
working" that is resulting from the glob-
Nuclear Power's
alization of businesses, says a senior con-
Third-World Growth
M
sultant at Arthur D. Little Inc., a corpo-
rate-communications agency with offices
A
N INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC-ENERGY
PRACTICALLY EVERYWHERE
in more than 15 countries. Telephone
seminar planned for early September
carriers who want to be competitive
in Jakarta, Indonesia, will explore ways
should, for example, devise time-saving
of financing nuclear power projects in
features, strive for technological unifor-
developing countries. The spread of such
mity, and treat customers as "partners
power elsewhere has been outlined by a
rather than subscribers" in supporting
United Nations body, the International
"urban informal sector," small enter-
users' business objectives, he says.
Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which is
prises that employ children in activities
sponsoring the seminar. As of last year,
ranging from pencilmaking to prostitu-
five nations-France, Belgium, South
tion. While seeing poverty as the root of
EUROPE
Korea, Hungary, and Sweden-used
the problem, the ILO report finds that
nuclear power for roughly half of their
electricity. Altogether, 13 countries rely
Happy 1992 Holidays
on such plants for at least 1/4 of their
T
HERE'S ALWAYS ONE THING MORE AS
electricity. There have been delays and
the European Community works
setbacks in the expansion of nuclear
toward its 1992 goal of economic unity.
energy in the US. Recently a planned
Now it's being advised to coordinate
nuclear plant was canceled in Czecho-
national holidays if it's going to work at
slovakia. A Czech energy minister has
all. London's Financial Times has fig-
said: "The public does not want any
ured that on 35 days of the year there is
nuclear energy at all." Still nuclear ener-
a holiday somewhere in Europe, but
gy's overall share of electricity produc-
only two-Christmas and New Year's
tion increased in 15 countries over the
Day-are celebrated by all.
past year and accounted for 1/6 of the
world's total generated electricity. And
the 1,854.5 terawatt-hours (a terawatt is
HUNGARY
a trillion watts) attributed to nuclear
generation worldwide is nearly as much
Playwright President II
power as all sources of electricity pro-
duced in 1958. (For a look at consump-
T
HE INTERIM PRESIDENT OF LIBERATED
tion and production of all forms of ener-
Hungary, Arpad Goncz, is known in
gy, please see The Map, page 12.)
his country as a playwright and head of
Threading power loom in Bhiwandi, India Photo: Melanie Stetson Freeman
its National Writers Association. But
"experience in various developing coun-
his writings are not as widely known
tries shows that children can be effec-
THE WORLD
elsewhere as those by Václav Havel, the
tively protected even while they and
playwright president of neighboring
their families are poor."
Czechoslovakia. This month the
Children in the Workplace
Hungarian leader's collected works
HILD LABOR IN THE WORLD'S INDUS-
become available for the first time in
C
trial sector has decreased dramati-
Global Networking
English translation when Garland
cally in recent years, according to a re-
Publishing of New York brings out
cent report by the International Labor
Opportunities
"Plays and Other Writings of Arpad
Organization (ILO), which attributes
T
HE WORLD'S PRIVATE TELECOMMUNICA-
Goncz" on July 23.
the decline to legislation and enforce-
tions industry should take advan-
ment, new technology requiring skilled
tage of more lenient international
adult labor, and rising income in many
regulation and advances in digital
parts of the world (which reduces fami-
networks in preparing now for an
lies' need for children to work). But the
ILO reports pressure by concerned and
aware citizens is essential in combating
"morally indefensible" child labor in
areas where children are still at great
risk of exploitation: third-world agri-
culture, where dangerous insecti-
cides and machinery are frequently
misused; domestic service, sometimes
thinly veiled slavery; and the so-called
Illustration by Hal Mayforth
8
JULY 1990
JAPAN
employment with one company is still
the norm, the objectives of study-group
New Success
members range from meeting people
for Old Theater
from different walks of life to learning
more about their own specialties. (To
M
ORE PROOF THAT IN HIGH-TECH JAPAN
read how one American learned to work
classic arts are carefully preserved:
in Japan, please see page 50.)
The 750-seat Kanamaru-za theater was
built in 1835 for Kabuki dramas-opera-
scale productions of pantomime, dance,
OLD NEWS
and song-that have endured since the
early 17th century. The Kanamaru-za
was fully refurbished a few years ago,
Rhodes Country
and today getting in is "like trying to
O
N JULY 17, 1890, MINING MAGNATE CECIL
obtain a ticket to a Rolling Stones con-
Rhodes was inaugurated prime minis-
cert," according to the Japan Times. The
ter of Britain's Cape Colony, which later
theater, which is in Kotohira, on the
became part of South Africa. He was the
Photo © Bettmann Archive
island of Shikoku, goes beyond mere
empire builder who dreamed of Britain
close-to-the-actors, tatami-mat seating.
recovering the United States and ruling
Oswald Spengler used him to exemplify
A large revolving section of the stage is
"the whole civilized world." He was the
the industrialist become statesman, the
turned not electrically but as in the
founder of the still existing Rhodes schol-
person who "has really ceased to feel his
past-by a team of strong men pushing
arships to Oxford University-though,
enterprise as his own business, and its
from below.
according to a biographer, he never could
aim as the simple amassing of property."
have won one himself since he was nei-
Today, with South Africa in the midst of
ther scholar nor athlete and lacked such
changing political and racial policies,
other qualifications as exhibiting an inter-
Rhodes may be remembered as one who
est in one's schoolmates. For all the con-
said both "I am no negrophilist" and "my
troversy surrounding Rhodes's business
feeling is that the best man must come to
and political dealings, philosopher
the front whatever his race may be."
WM
THE
METROPOLITAN
MUSEUM OF ART
Christmas Catalogue
Do your Christmas shopping at home
with our new 144-page full-color catalogue
Applying Kabuki makeup in Tokyo
Photo © Dave Bartruff
of unusual and distinguished presents,
the majority of which are available only from
the Museum. The many wonderful gifts
The Company Isn't
include jewelry, decorative works of art,
Everything Anymore?
R
sculpture, Christmas cards and Christmas
ornaments, note cards, posters, and prize-
winning art books priced from less than
T
HEY AREN'T CALLING IT NETWORKING
$10 to more than $100. There is also a
yet, but in effect that's what many
special selection of presents for children.
young Japanese workers have begun to
do. No longer content to work overtime
The new Christmas catalogue will be
every night or to confine their contacts
1990
mailed to you. Please send $1.00 to cover
to the companies they work for, employ-
postage.
ees in their 20s and 30s are forming
after-work study groups called
1411
"benkyokai." One such group is Access
THE METROPOLITAN
Name
Planet, which holds monthly meetings
MUSEUM OF ART
to hear speeches from business leaders
255 Gracie Station
Address
and attracts both men and women to its
New York, NY 10028
City
State
Zip
membership. In a nation where lifetime
WORLD MONITOR
11
THE
MAP
ENERGY
Canada
289.28
USA
1,595.51
E. Germany
UK
69.75
Norway
Mexico
239.91
93.35
178.83
Netherlands
61.84
Poland
127.92
USSR
Romania
Venezuela
W. Germany
61.52
1,645.72
123.03
Algeria
129.20
Iraq
90.33
109.94
Iran
Saudi Arabia
Nigeria
133.64
243.47
China
68.21
629.29
United Arab Emirates
100.14
India
138.20
S. Africa
Indonesia
106.19
97.25
Australia
MAJOR ENERGY PRODUCERS
147.34
Countries producing 1% or more of total world
energy. Includes coal and other solid fuels, oil,
gas, nuclear, hydro, geothermal, solar.
Latest complete world figures (1987) from International Energy Agency. Shown in
millions of tons of oil equivalent.
12
Introducing The Map:
W
ho reads the most books? What nations spend more on cosmetics than
advanced education? Does Tokyo lie north or south of Washington? Where
do the highest percentages of two-spouse careers occur? How does oil flow
to Europe? Is Cuba closer to Mexico or Miami? For answers, watch this space.
With this issue, WM starts a new monthly department, The Map. Our aims: (1) To
translate into clear graphic form significant information about peoples and
nations. (2) To help readers learn and remember geography. Each month cartog-
rapher Dave Herring will highlight some important comparison or trend.
We owe credit for The Map to thousands of our readers. It was your intense
interest in WM's earlier feature on teaching geography ("Maps from
Memory," May 1989), and the outpouring of letters and phone calls in
Canada
the year since, that brought about The Map. We have SO much
more information at our fingertips than Columbus or
151.01
Marco Polo. Why not use it.
USA
1,324.42
W. Germany
Mexico
198.56
77.47
UK
E. Germany
146.40
58.35
France
Poland
140.55
88.48
Romania
USSR
Italy
71.45
959.96
111.48
Czechoslovakia
53.06
Brazil
82.27
China
481.60
Japan
262.13
India
96.70
S. Africa
37.66
11
MAJOR ENERGY CONSUMERS
Countries consuming 1% or more of total world
energy from all sources.
Australia
Latest complete world figures (1987) from International Energy Agency. Shown in
millions of tons of oil equivalent.
52.69
WORLD MONITOR
By Walter C. Clemens Jr.
GUEST SPEAKER
How Commuting
Has Changed!
First it was
I-COASTAL IS OUT. BI-CONTINENTAL IS IN.
then coast to
B
"We have the same kitchen linoleum," he noted,
suburbs to city,
Bi-world may be coming. And who
pointing to the red and brown brick pattern known
knows what's next?
to millions of Americans. Where did he get it? "My
A few years back, bi-coastal commut-
father-in-law [Ambassador Nikolai T. Fedorenko]
coast, then conti-
ing was the thing in the United States. Workweek
bought it when he was stationed at the UN."
nent to continent.
in the Big Apple; weekends at Malibu. Or, for cer-
But it turned out that my house had an item
Now it's (gulp)
tain Nobel Prize winners, the fall term at Harvard;
brought from Russia that was as familiar to the
world to world.
the winter and spring at Stanford.
younger Soviet diplomat as my kitchen floor. It
But even the colonial ancestors of today's
was Tolstoy's "War and Peace"-we both had the
American bi-coastal commuters went farther
"Detgiz" (Children's Publishing House) edition
afield. Many were bi-continental:
published in 1958, acquired by me when I studied
Benjamin Franklin felt at home in London and
at Moscow University that year. From different
Paris as well as in Philadelphia and New York.
political worlds, we esteemed the same Old World
Franklin, a poor boy, did not win admittance at
literature.
Harvard, but he gave swimming lessons in Eng-
For centuries Americans have had a romance
land and later sent back British scientific instru-
with German universities, which helped to make
Illustrations by
ments to the college on the Charles.
some of them not only bi-continental but also bi-
Tim Carroll
Benjamin Thompson, later known as Count
world. George F. Kennan, dean of American Soviet-
Rumford, had to leave Boston (after he became
ologists, learned Russian in
known as a British spy) to make his mark in Lon-
Berlin in the 1920s before he
don, Paris, and Munich-but he left money to
joined the US ambassador in
Harvard and also West Point. These two New
Moscow in 1933. Joseph
Englanders grew up to become a patriot and, in
Campbell studied Sanskrit at
Thompson's case, an ex-patriot, but both were bi-
Munich in the 1930s, stimu-
continental.
lating him to penetrate the
The first regular bi-continental commuter may
infinite worlds of mythol-
have been David Frost, who began zipping be-
ogy. Sarah Caldwell,
tween the US and Britain regularly in the 1960s to
director of the Opera
Walter C. Clemens Jr. is
do weekly television shows in both New York and
Company of Boston,
currently bi-worlding it as
London. Now, even without cheap supersonic
a member of the joint
flights, many a traveler flies regularly from the
study group of the New
United States to Europe on jumbo jets. Indeed,
York-based Council on
some New Yorkers believe they can ski more easily
Economic Priorities and
and cheaply in the Alps than in the Rockies.
the Moscow-based
Institute of USA and
FADE OUT, FADE IN
Canada Studies. He
Already, however, bi-continentalism is fading. Both
teaches at Boston
fashion and necessity dictate bi-world contacts
University. His book "Can
linking the first (Western) and second (Commu-
Russia Change?" has just
nist) worlds. I got a taste of this nearly two dec-
been published by Unwin
ades ago when a Soviet diplomat visited my home
Hyman in Boston.
in the Boston suburbs.
14
observed a great deal about opera in
orating the sharp attacks on Soviet real-
and Georgi Arbatov, head of Moscow's
East Germany, a center of culture offi-
ities that he delivered to the Congress of
Institute of USA and Canada Studies.
cially located in the "second" world.
People's Deputies. Last September the
Both these men are veteran bi-worlders.
At the turn of the century a Moscow-
leader of the Soviet parliamentary oppo-
The book's 10 chapters have an ar-
born scholar with a German name, Ivan
sition, Boris Yeltsin, also courted Amer-
resting format: If an American drafts a
N. Klingen, led a team of agronomists
ican opinion.
chapter, a Soviet (such as Mikoyan)
through Asia for several years and col-
comments; if a Soviet (such as Arbatov's
lected more than two tons of seeds and
THE GLASNOST FACTOR
son, Aleksei) provides the thesis, an
seedlings, including thousands of tea
Glasnost and perestroika have been
American (such as Robert S.
plants and orange trees. He wrote a
good to bi-worldism. Studying in Mos-
McNamara) provides a comment if not
book called "Among the Patriarchs of
cow a few years ago, Harvard graduate
an antithesis. Readers can make their
Agriculture in the Peoples of the Near
student Bruce Allyn got the idea to in-
own synthesis.
and Far East: Egypt, India, Ceylon,
vite top Soviet researchers to Harvard
China." Caucasian teas were improved
seminars on how to control conflict. At
PENTAGON BI-WORLDISM
as a result of his labors.
first his idea seemed preposterous-to
The US and Soviet Pentagons have de-
Klingen's book was reissued in 1960
people in both worlds. Within a year or
veloped their own forms of bi-worldism.
just after Soviet leader Nikita Khru-
so things changed. Sergo Mikoyan, son
Maj. Gen. Sergei Akhromeyev, retired
shchev made his pilgrimage to Iowa to
of the former Soviet president Anastas
from heading the Soviet General Staff in
collect hybrid corn and began prescrib-
Mikoyan and director of Moscow's
December 1988, has become a regular
ing cornpone recipes for his country-
Latin American Institute, has become a
commuter. In 1987 he visited the
men. Perhaps there was a message:
regular visitor. In early 1989 he was
Pentagon while Soviet leader Mikhail
Klingen helped the agriculture of the
joined by physicist Sergei Khrushchev,
Gorbachev glad-handed the pedestrians
Russian Empire by his foreign expedi-
son of Nikita Khrushchev.
of Washington. In 1988 Akhromeyev had
tion; Khrushchev did the same for the
Sergei had not been to the United
even more fun, donning Indian war bon-
Soviet Union.
States since 1959, when he shared his
nets, attending rodeos, visiting an air-
Today a mounting stream of com-
dad's disappointment at being refused
craft carrier-a tour reciprocated by his
muters shuttles between the first and
admission to Disneyland (on security
US counterpart, Adm. William J. Crowe
second worlds. It began with diplomats,
grounds). An accomplished survivor, he
Jr., in 1989. In summer 1989 Akhro-
spies, and journalists, plus some wres-
easily coped with heckling followers of
meyev was back in Washington, where
tlers, ballerinas, and Armand Hammer.
libertarian Lyndon Larouche at a 1989
he testified for hours to Congress on
The nucleus then expanded to other
Harvard gathering.
security matters, interrupted during
joint venturers, lawyers, and rug mer-
One result of these meetings is a joint
committee recesses to sign autographs.
chants. It broadened in 1988 to include
Soviet-US book called "Windows of
One of Crowe's "flag interpreters"
art auctioneers and Soviet artists, some
Opportunity: From Cold War to Peaceful
(good enough for an admiral) is one of
of them financed by the auctioneers.
Competition in U.S.-Soviet Relations"
my colleagues, Boston University profes-
Soviet hockey players now play in
(Ballinger, 1989). The introduction,
sor William C. Green, a reserve naval
America, and US baseball players are
"Competition Without War," is by
officer. Having studied at a Soviet high
testing Moscow's Astroturf.
Graham T. Allison, former head of
school some years ago while his father
In 1989 dissident scientist Andrei
Harvard's John F. Kennedy School of
served at the US Em-
Sakharov visited his relatives and
Government,
bassy, Bill is quite
friends in the US twice, elab-
fluent in Russian. In
summer '89 Green
renewed
15
his bi-worldism. First he helped play
one of the few Soviet institutchiki to
and Cuba's Lisandro Ortero.
host to Soviet sailors from three war-
have a wife who is in the same institute
When Gorbachev himself met with
ships at Norfolk, Virginia; he then trav-
and with whom he writes articles.
the group, it was front-page news
eled on one of two US warships visiting
More such activities are in the offing.
abroad and for practically every Soviet
Sevastopol on the Black Sea.
The Council on Economic Priorities, a
newspaper as well as the theoretical
Neither Green nor Soviet Ambas-
nonprofit corporation in New York, has
journal Kommunist.
sador Yuri V. Dubinin had ever seen such
worked out a plan with Arbatov's insti-
What was not printed-then-was
a display of American warmth for visit-
tute and others whereby Soviet and US
that Gorbachev pulled King aside and
ing Soviets as they encountered in
researchers will explore together how
told him: "What you and your club could
Norfolk. Dubinin flew directly to Mos-
military budgets could be cut; how dual-
do for the USSR would be to give useful
cow to urge Kremlin approval for a com-
use (military and civilian) technology
suggestions on how we can cope in a
parable welcome for the US fleet. The
could be regulated; how
humane way with our pandemic un-
chief Soviet admiral at Norfolk came
conventional and nu-
employment problem." Since that time
to depend on Green as his No. 2 inter-
clear forces could be
Aitmatov and several other Soviets have
preter and got so used to him that he
minimized while stab-
become full members of the club and a
started treating him the way
branch has been formed in Poland.
he does his own lieu-
tenants-roughly. The ad-
FRAGILE FLOWER
miral's occasional gruff bark,
Bi-worldism, like détente, is a frag-
however, could be taken as a
ile flower, easily crushed. It is buf-
compliment to Green's abilities
feted these days not so much by
and as a step forward in bi-
frosty cold war between the super-
worldism.
powers as by the enormous
In Sevastopol, Green and
problems within the USSR and
hundreds of other American sea-
other parts of the second world.
men were simply overwhelmed by
These issues can easily upset
Soviet hospitality. Several received
East-West relations if opponents
gifts, such as a hand-carved model
of closer contacts blame nationality
of a sailing vessel, SO valuable that
unrest or other problems on first-
US law forbids individual sailors
world influences, which Gorbachev
from keeping them. Instead they
once characterized as "cultural van-
must be turned over to a naval
dalism."
museum.
There also lurks the issue of sym-
Both navies hope to exchange
metry.
visits this year, at San Diego and Vlad-
ility of relations is maximized.
"These exchanges will go on only so
ivostok. The Soviets have even proposed
A typical case study compares the re-
long as their passports and our money
joint maneuvers for some future date!
sponsiveness of defense and civilian in-
hold out," is how one Western joint-ven-
dustries to challenges of innovation and
ture expert puts it.
SOVIET COMMUTER
international competitiveness. Perhaps
The Soviet side, far deeper in debt
Another frequent visitor to the United
the Americans may have some ideas on
than the US, has little to offer except
States is Andrei A. Kokoshin, a senior
how to retrain the 100,000 career officers
raw materials and glasnost, plus occa-
researcher at Arbatov's American stud-
Gorbachev plans to let go in the near
sional unilateral cuts of tanks and mis-
ies institute. In spring 1989 I met him at
future.
siles from an arsenal most Soviets agree
Harvard, where he gave two seminars
is too big for their own good.
after he, like Akhromeyev, testified
ADVICE FROM THE WEST?
If bi-worldism persists and grows in
before a US congressional committee.
Would the Soviets ever listen to advice
meaning, it may lead us into the next
"What a relief to be away from
on such matters? Dr. Alexander King,
millennium, when those who make the
Washington!" Kokoshin said in Cam-
president of the Club of Rome, has an
transition will become bi-millennial. If
bridge. "I've got friends at NSC [the
interesting tale to tell. His organization
bi-worldism really takes off, Americans
National Security Council], the State
(which sponsored the book "Limits to
and Soviets may go on-led perhaps by
Department, the Hill-there's almost
Growth" and other studies of the "world
sci-fi writer Isaac Asimov-to become
no time to breathe in Washington."
problematique") was sharply castigated
bi-galaxial.
From Cambridge, Kokoshin planned
by Soviet ideologists for "bourgeois pes-
To get that far, however, bi-worldism
a couple of days in Canada and then
simism" and "non-Marxist eclecticism"
will probably not suffice. Probably we'll
back to Russia. While he has not been
in the late 1970s and early 1980s.
have to become tri-world or even penta-
elected to the Supreme Soviet, he heads
In 1986, however, Kirghiz novelist
world, closing North-South as well as
its commission inspecting Soviet compli-
Chingiz Aitmatov invited King (an Eng-
East-West and other gaps.
ance with the unilateral arms reduction
lishman) and other intellectuals (first
If that happens-in one millennium
moves Gorbachev has announced. This
and third world) to a discussion of glob-
or another-we may become one-world.
job takes Kokoshin all over Eastern
al problems at the Central Asian resort
If we are adept, our one world will not
Europe as well as the USSR. Thus, he is
Issik-Kul. Among those present were
be a uniform blah but a fusion of what is
bi-coastal (Elbe to the Pacific) as well as
America's James Baldwin, Britain's
best from all the worlds we know today
bi-continental and bi-world. He is also
Peter Ustinov, Turkey's Yasar Kemal,
and others yet to be invented.
WM
16
JULY 1990
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WORLD MONITOR
25
WORLD MONITOR
01
WORED MIONTTOR
By Cameron Macauley
CANADA'S
NEW
ARCTIC
Siberian visitors. A young
elite. Threatened values. Signs
of what happens when the
modern world spreads to bar-
ren lands where wise ancient
peoples had been doing very
well by themselves, thank you.
By George Tombs
ITH SOME CANADIAN SCHOOL-
bones, she could have passed for one of the local
teachers I waited by the
Inuit-a name used in preference to the old term
English and French. He
has covered Europe, and
W
tiny Canadian Arctic air-
Eskimo, especially in Canada. In fact, she is a
port terminal for the ar-
member of the little Nivkh nation, which lives on
George Tombs is an
rival of First Air Flight 804
Sakhalin Island north of Japan and in the lower
award-winning journalist
in Pangnirtung, the home-
Amur River valley of the Soviet mainland.
and filmmaker working in
town of my old friend
Ms. Gashilova was accompanied by Siberian
Jacopoosie. The plane
Eskimo teachers, products of the Soviet Union's
groped over some 6,000-
excellent teacher training program for indigenous
the Americas from the
foot peaks and poked
peoples. All were astonished by the number of
north magnetic pole to
through the fog before
pickup trucks in Canada, the absence of lines at
Tierra del Fuego, for
snarling to a halt in front of us. A little the worse
food stores, and the fact that property is private.
media in various coun-
for wear, six native Siberians and their Soviet
Since the Soviet Eskimo teachers use some
tries around the world,
Georgian translator descended.
words that the Canadian Inuit understand-like
including The Christian
"I was very surprised by nature," one of the
nanuk for polar bear-they are considered
Science Monitor and
group told me later. "No bushes, no shrubbery, no
cousins and therefore all the more welcome. Such
MonitoRadio. To prepare
trees, only snow, snow, white snow, nothing else."
teacher exchanges fit into a general pattern of
this story, he visited the
The comment was the first reaction of Luda
Arctic cooperation between Canada and the Soviet
Canadian Arctic for the
Gashilova on her first trip outside of the Soviet
Union that was set in the mid-1980s. Still, the fact
ninth time.
Union. With her silken black hair and high cheek-
that the Inuit are finally meeting the Soviet Eski-
42
JULY 1990
Photo © Jim Brandenburg
mos is extraordinary. For, even today, the Inuit are
Jacopoosie was an Inuk, one of Canada's Inuit.
GENERATIONS FACING
rooted to the land and memories of the old ways.
It took days before he told me of his hometown
CHANGE: Inuit par-
It was Jacopoosie who first brought this home
of Pangnirtung, 1,200 miles to the north. It took a
ent and child are
to me. I met him during my high school years
full week before he showed me an Inuktitut-lan-
part of a people
when I was a volunteer in 8-D, the adolescent ward
guage prayer book tucked under his pillow. After
known for surviv-
of the Montreal Children's Hospital. After class I
two weeks, he was teaching me to pronounce con-
ing with simple
would head over to 8-D to play pool and occasional-
sonants deep down in my throat as I counted from
means in the hos-
ly taka, an Inuit card game, with the patients.
pitaqani to tishamat-from one to five.
tile arctic environ-
Most youngsters fretted about their pain, but
Peter Freuchen, the Danish explorer who first
ment; now many
12-year-old Jacopoosie was different. Was it his
visited the Arctic in 1906, described the Inuit as a
Inuit ask what the
copper-colored face or black hair that set him
people able "to live where nobody else can." For
future will hold for
apart? More likely it was his natural dignity.
thousands of years Inuit had managed to survive
their children as
At home, Jacopoosie said, there was no day-
in the world's harshest climate-spread out over a
traditional society
light. Above the Arctic Circle the long night of win-
million square miles of arctic Canada (as well as
is influenced by
ter had fallen. It was so cold that a glassful of
Greenland, Alaska, and the northeast corner of
commercial influx
water tossed in the air stiffened into tinkling
Siberia). All they had were the simplest of bone
from the south.
shards of ice before reaching the ground. He
and stone implements, and a wise reverence for
shook his head as if to say he wished he were
the rhythms of nature.
there, following the clack and thud of caribou hoofs
It took European explorers and adventurers a
while the snow shrieked.
long time to appreciate the wealth of knowledge
WORLD MONITOR
43
nuit have ceased to see themselves living at the far edge of
'the white man's world.' They have made the 'circumpolar
region' the new international center of their world.
Inuit had. Throughout northern Canada, these
construction executives, academics, ecologists, and
HUNTERS' CHOICE: Igloo
adventurers left place names recalling their own
assorted busybodies, all eager to impose their vision
builder works on
attempts to subdue nature: Bay of Gods Mercy,
of Canada's Arctic and its inhabitants.
temporary shelter.
Deception Bay, Cape Hopes Advance. (Snafu Beach
Very few Inuit now
was a 20th-century addition in the same vein.)
BIG BUSINESS ARRIVES
live in ice-block
By Freuchen's time, after at least three centuries
Starting in the 1950s, big government and big
structures, but fish-
of various explorers going it alone, a new generation
business from southern Canada moved into the
ers and hunters-
of Europeans had the good sense to ask Inuit how to
Arctic. They recognized it as an El Dorado of op-
even those who
survive in their hostile landscape. This discovery of
portunities for petroleum, lead, zinc, and uranium
travel by snowmo-
Inuit wisdom, perhaps the explorers' most impor-
extraction. They see it today as a vital part of
bile-are likely to
tant find, could have started an era of cooperation
Canada's power structure.
build one (construc-
between European and Inuit.
Prime Minister Brian Mulroney has been using
tion takes only a
But this tardy appreciation of Inuit and nature
the Arctic as a symbol of Canadian national power.
couple of hours) if
proved to be very short-lived. On the heels of the
His government invited bids from France and
they're going to be
explorers came missionaries, bureaucrats, prospec-
Britain to build an $8 billion fleet of nuclear-pow-
out overnight.
tors, rum traders, merchants, military strategists,
ered submarines for arctic defense, only to cancel
the program for lack of funds. The Far North is
the site of radar defenses and Cruise missile test-
ing, not to mention ground-hugging training
flights for NATO jets that particularly infuriate
native hunters in the bush.
The economic and strategic stakes are high
enough to have crowded Inuit out of the decision-
making picture. Canada's 27,000 Inuit-scattered
across the Northwest Territories, arctic Quebec,
and Labrador-have been divested of their old
role as "lords of the Arctic." In just four decades,
they have become dependent on policies formulat-
ed thousands of miles away. In some communities
90% of the residents are dependent on govern-
ment welfare.
"Our culture has been eroded," said Mary
Simon, an Inuk from Kuujjuaq in arctic Quebec.
As president of the Inuit Circumpolar Conference
-an international organization that groups Inuit
from Greenland, Canada, and Alaska-she practi-
cally lives in an airplane these days.
"There hasn't been much of a future for a lot of
the young people," she explained. "They have suf-
fered from cultural deterioration, a cultural clash
between white society and native people."
This cultural deterioration has taken such
forms as spousal assault, alcohol and drug abuse,
and a suicide rate several times the Canadian
national average. Nova Scotia sociologist Colin
Irwin has concluded: "If current trends continue,
most of the Inuit living in the Arctic in the year
2025 will be second-generation wards of the state,
whose society, economy, and culture may have
more in common with an urban slum than with the
life their grandparents knew."
Inuit recognize they face challenges more
alarming than the historic rigors of wilderness,
Photo © David Hiser/Photographers Aspen
and they are making a comeback. But they have
44
JULY 1990
The Inuit Circumpolar
INTERNATIONAL FORUM:
Conference (ICC) was es-
Mary Simon from
tablished in 1977. It repre-
arctic Quebec
sents 130,000 Inuit from
presided at Inuit
Canada, Greenland, and
Circumpolar Con-
the United States, and has
ference's general
NGO (nongovernmental
assembly in
organization) status at the
Sisimiut, Green-
United Nations. Its pur-
land, in 1989,
pose is to strengthen Inuit
which drew repre-
communications and cul-
sentatives from
tural and artistic links, and
Siberia and Alas-
Photo © Nunatsiaq News
to encourage cooperation
ka as well as
old handicaps to overcome. Their villages are as
in protecting the environment. ICC gives Inuit a
Canada and
much as 2,700 miles apart. They use a language,
much-strengthened voice in international forums
Greenland.
Inuktitut, broken up into nine major dialects and
like the UN. Once-localized issues have suddenly
three writing systems (introduced by Moravian,
become multilateral.
Anglican, and Roman Catholic missionaries).
"In June 1989 we were awarded the Global 500
The 27,000 Inuit are only a fraction of Canada's
award by the United Nations Environmental Pro-
737,000 people of native origin-including Iro-
gram for our work in this area," noted ICC presi-
quois, Athapaskan Indians, and Métis (people of
dent Simon with satisfaction.
mixed parentage)-who altogether account for
In July 1989, at the ICC's general assembly in
only 3% of the national population. Yet Inuit may
Sisimiut, Greenland, representatives of 5,000 Sovi-
have the best chance of preserving their distinct
et Eskimos, from the Chukchi Peninsula across the
society, thanks to their geographical isolation and a
Bering Strait from Nome, Alaska, attended an
relatively low rate of assimilation into English-
ICC meeting for the first time. In previous assem-
speaking society.
blies, a chair had been left empty to symbolize
their absence. Indigenous people from Canada and
REBUILDING A RAVAGED ECONOMY
the USSR-like the teachers I met at Pangnir-
Now Inuit are rebuilding a ravaged hunting econo-
tung-are also meeting outside of official forums
my. They are pressing Ottawa for the transfer of
to explore what they have in common.
political power, in order to set up regional govern-
Traditionally, the elders are repositories of
ments they themselves will control. In addition, they
Inuit wisdom. If I could meet the very oldest of
have forged links with other indigenous peoples,
Inuit, wouldn't I be meeting the wisest of them all?
such as their cousins in Siberia. In the process Inuit
Leah Nuturaq was born 104 years ago and doesn't
have ceased to see themselves living at the far edge
know a word of English. As she spoke, she curled
of "the white man's world." They have made the
up her legs on her bedspread, displaying embroi-
"circumpolar region" the new international center of
dered duffel socks she wears inside her boots.
their world.
Beside her night lamp was a bowl of fresh seal
Amur River
SOVIET
Sakhalin
UNION
Island
ARCTIC
Arctic
CIRCLE
Ocean
Chukchi
GREENLAND
Peninsula
SACHS HARBOUR
ALASKA
SISIMIUT
Baffin
IGLOOLIK
Island
PANGNIRTUNG
Frobisher Bay
CANADA
Hudson
KUUJJUAQ
Bay
James Bay
Map by Dave Herring
WORLD MONITOR
45
brains, and on the walls of her room hung faded
We were punished if we did that."
photographs of missionaries and ship captains.
As late as the 1950s Inuit didn't know how to
"I tell the young people what my elders used to
stand up to white society. Times have changed. The
tell me: to listen to the Inuit way of life and not
strongest hope of cultural survival today may well
the white man's way," she said brightly. "I lis-
be the education system. It has been revamped to
tened. I never said no to my elders, I respected
bolster indigenous culture. Inuktitut-language edu-
them. And I feel that is the reason I have been
cation is now available even to the children (up to
given a longer life."
fourth grade) of white residents of the Arctic,
Ms. Nuturaq remembered the first time she saw
though there is a lack of qualified teachers.
aircraft land near her family's nomadic camp in the
Only 15% of Inuit finish high school (compared
to a national average of 52%). The academic stan-
dards of Northwest Territories schools have been
lowered in order to pass more students-in theory
to get them into better jobs. But many graduates
discover that employers are more interested in
real skills than a flattering high school diploma.
In the 1970s satellite television opened up new
horizons in the Arctic. As in other places, it offered
promise as an educational tool. But in many ways
it had a negative effect on the traditional communi-
ty, promoting consumer values, an interest in prop-
erty ownership, and envy, and resulting in a notice-
able increase in theft.
Rosemarie Kuptana, an Inuk from Sachs Har-
bour in the Far Northwest, describes the initial
impact of TV: "It was intriguing, it was entertain-
ing. It replaced the normal activities that we had in
the communities, like visiting, playing together,
Photo: Nanisivik Mine Ltd.
sharing meals, working together. The streets were
MODERN TECHNOLOGY:
wilds of Baffin Bay, back before World War II.
deserted. And I don't know if the novelty of televi-
Inuit workers
"When the time came, I started hearing a noise. I
sion has completely worn off in the North yet."
adjust piece of
thought it came from the ground. I was standing
equipment in
right next to the tent. I started calling my husband,
INNOVATIVE TV NETWORK
Nanisivik Mine.
because I thought it was a bee, and I was scared of
Some 20 channels are available in the Arctic,
Inuit make up 25%
bees. I couldn't kill a bee. When I was shouting to
bringing Detroit news, soap operas, and ice hockey
of the work force of
my husband, that's when I saw the two planes. I
games into every Inuit home. Ms. Kuptana became
the zinc mine,
went hiding among big ice blocks on the beach."
president of the Inuit Broadcasting Corporation
which is one of the
From camps like Leah Nuturaq's, Inuit were
(IBC) and built it into one of North America's best
major employers
settled in stable communities in the 1950s and '60s.
television networks for indigenous people. IBC
in the north Baffin
The advantages were obvious: They would no
may, at first glance, seem like a drop in the bucket.
region.
longer be subject to food shortages or starvation.
But it is an innovative network, with a string of
They could benefit from Canadian health services
northern production centers and an interesting
and formal education. They could make the transi-
output of current affairs, hunting, and entertain-
tion from subsistence to a wage economy.
ment shows. For instance, Blandina Makik created
Yet some government policies, designed to
"Takuginai" (meaning "Look and see!"), a chil-
develop the Inuit politically, provoked and antago-
dren's show with puppets. She is from Igloolik,
nized them.
where a referendum was held in the early 1980s
before wary citizens decided to accept television.
EDUCATING IN ENGLISH
Ms. Makik is using the medium to bolster lan-
For example, children were separated from their
guage and culture, and bring young and old to-
families at about 12 years of age and sent to
gether again.
English-language schools far away in southern
"The most important puppets we have on the
Canada. Such policies succeeded in creating an
show are the grandparents," she said. "In tradi-
elite, able to deal with both the Inuit and the white
tional Inuit society, grandparents played a very
society. But they also produced a breach between
important role in bringing up children and passing
elders like Leah Nuturaq and youngsters.
down history. I felt the grandparent puppets were
"In the early years, when the education system
very good tools to teach some of the values, some
was first introduced in our communities, the purpose
of the stories."
was to do away with the Inuktitut language," said
Everywhere I went in the Arctic I saw grand-
John Amagoalik, president of the Inuit Tapirisat of
mothers carrying infant grandchildren in the fox-
Canada, the national association of Inuit. "The chil-
fur-lined hoods of their amautiq or traditional
dren, myself when I was a kid, were put in schools,
coats. The birth rate is high. Demographers pre-
and we were forbidden to speak our mother tongue.
dict the population of Canadian Inuit will rise 60%
46
JULY 1990
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from current levels to 41,000 by the turn of the
The Inuit of Labrador are counting on a land
century, putting tremendous strains on housing
claims settlement. In December negotiators for
and community services.
Inuit and the federal government agreed in principle
on a massive new land claims settlement. It will give
FURS AND SUBSIDIES
the Inuit in the eastern Northwest Territories sur-
But cultural, political, and demographic gains will
face rights to 225,000 square kilometers or some
not amount to much unless the economy can be
87,000 square miles (nearly the size of Oregon) plus
turned around. And the basis of the North's sub-
subsurface rights to 36,000 square kilometers
sistence economy, trapping, has been wiped out.
(14,000 square miles) and $580 million (Canadian)
It's true trapping became more costly the day
spread out over 14 years. Moreover, Inuit of the
snowmobiles mechanized it: Not everyone can
western Arctic signed an agreement with govern-
afford the $5,000-$10,000 outlay per year to hunt
ment in 1984, and Inuit of Quebec in 1975 after a
on the land by snowmobile. But much of the 90%
massive hydroelectric project had been launched in
drop in white fox and hair seal harvests from 1980
the latter province's James Bay region.
to 1985 is attributable to the force of the interna-
"The [1975] James Bay agreement has provid-
tional anti-fur lobby, which has seriously under-
ed us with more opportunities to get involved polit-
mined the Inuit economy. The result is more Inuit
ically and economically in the region," Mary Simon
dependent on government subsidy.
told me. As an Inuk of arctic Quebec, she is a bene-
Wage employment was supposed to bring Inuit
ficiary of the agreement. "So I think it has been in
into the 20th century. Instead, building Pinetree
many ways a positive step, but we've had a lot of
Line radar bases in Labrador or working in mines
difficulties with implementing the agreement."
in the arctic islands has often proven a temporary
occupation, serving to draw many Inuit away from
WHAT'S AT STAKE
the traditions of the land, only to leave them on the
Before taking over the presidency of the Inuit Cir-
dole and the bottle-permanently.
cumpolar Conference in 1986, Ms. Simon was presi-
By 1986, after decades of "development," only
dent of Makivik Corporation, the Inuit holding com-
one in eight Canadian Inuit had a full-time, year-
pany set up by the James Bay agreement. Makivik
round job. Over half of all Inuit receive some form
now runs a regional airline, a travel agency, a deep-
of government assistance during the year.
sea fishery, and a fuel distributing agency. Quebec
One proposed way to strengthen the northern
Inuit also have a fledgling regional government.
economy is to recognize hunting as a form of paid
New organizations such as these are helping
employment. A hunter support program is being
Inuit maintain their identity as a distinct people,
considered by the government of the Northwest
bound to the land but very much bound to the
ARCTIC SUMMER: In
Territories. It would in effect pay people for their
modern world as well. After a few decades of total
the Far North the
hunting effort, and to some extent displace welfare.
dislocation, and despite gnawing social problems, a
eerie light of mid-
The program would also encourage consump-
new Inuit leadership is now providing direction.
night sun suffuses
tion of "country food." Even though Inuit lived on
"It's the nonmaterial things in our culture that
glacial landscape
the land for generations, many expend their social
are at stake," concludes Rosemarie Kuptana. "Like
with round-the-
assistance money on store-bought food, which is
the altering of our traditional values and attitudes,
clock daylight for
phenomenally expensive, since it has to be shipped
our pride, our sense of being a distinct culture, our
three months or
great distances-in some instances 4,000 miles
language. Our people, that's what's at stake."
more.
-by sea, or by jet, which is even costlier.
Jacopoosie would know what she meant.
WM
Photo © Jim Brandenburg
48
JULY 1990
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51
sensation. Every time I started at a new
programming job, I had to learn how to
12
do all the same things in a slightly differ-
ent way. And on a computer you must do
things exactly right, or it doesn't work.
Communicating with a computer is a
bit like talking to a person who under-
stands when you say, "It is hot outside,"
but who looks at you blankly when you
say, "It's hot out."
In America this rigid stupidity of com-
puters often breeds a sort of love-hate
relationship between programmers and
their machines. In an attempt to establish
the kind of long-suffering rapport that
flowered SO naturally among my computer
buddies back home, I said to Mr. Ikeda:
"This kind of stuff is always a pain in the
neck in the beginning, isn't it?"
After the interpreter translated, I saw
a spark of annoyance flare in Mr. Ikeda's
eyes. He spoke curtly in Japanese, and
the interpreter said:
"He says he doesn't understand. He's
could never have foreseen difficulties between us.
trying to teach you how to do it now."
It was my first day on the job, and I was accompanied to
I said nothing, trying to maintain an expressionless face,
the offices by two foreigners-Mr. MacTavish of Scotland
but I think that was the moment when I realized that Mr.
and Mr. Plimpton of Arizona-who had arranged my con-
Ikeda's and my mutual understanding of PL/I would not be
tract. (Japanese companies rarely contract foreigners direct-
quite enough.
ly; it is usually done through agencies such as MacTavish's
That week I was given a set of deadlines. I don't mind
and Plimpton's.) We shook hands with Mr. Yatsuhashi, the
deadlines. The problem was that I was not sure what the
department head who had first interviewed me, and then I
deadlines were for.
was introduced to Mr. Ikeda.
Mr. Ikeda was a thin man, about 30, maybe 5-foot-7. He
I WAS ПОТ in AMERICA
shook my hand limply and gave me a shy, friendly smile. He
As I pored over the program on which I was supposed to be
seemed like a nice person.
working, I quickly noticed a stunning peculiarity. For more
Then the five of us sat down in a small windowless room to
than 100 pages of PL/I code, there were virtually no explana-
discuss my project. Unfortunately, I spoke no Japanese, and
tory comments. To understand what this means, think of the
the only person who really knew what I was going to have to
word "code." Then imagine reading 100 pages of it without a
do was Mr. Ikeda, who spoke no English.
key to understand the code.
I had never seen anything like this before. In America any
YOU BOTH SPEAH PL/I
program on which I had ever worked was loaded with com-
I was given a copy of the computer program I was going to be
ments. I fumed. Even if Mr. Ikeda had added comments in
working with. The language was PL/I-no different from the
Japanese, I thought, someone could have translated them.
PL/I used in the United States-and there was a certain
One day, at the end of my tether, I walked over to Mr.
comfort in seeing familiar constructs. But I didn't have any
Ikeda with an interpreter and asked him to explain a particu-
idea what this program was designed to accomplish.
larly abstruse section of the program.
I wondered aloud whether there might be any communica-
Mr. Ikeda looked up from his terminal and fixed me with a
tion problem, considering the language barrier between Mr.
withering glare. It was a glare with which I would become
Ikeda and me, but Mr. Plimpton smiled and said: "You'll
quite familiar over the next few months.
understand each other because you both speak PL/I."
"Chernin-san," he said through the interpreter, "will have
Truer and falser words were never spoken.
to analyze the code."
The first clouds appeared on Mr. Ikeda's and my horizon
I glared back at him, then turned on my heel and strode
later that morning.
off to my desk.
Mr. Ikeda, along with an interpreter, sat down at a termi-
I probably should have known better than to do what I
nal with me in order to orient me to The Company's comput-
then decided to do. I asked Mr. MacTavish to arrange a meet-
er system. As Mr. Ikeda displayed the screen menus used to
ing with Mr. Yatsuhashi and Mr. Ikeda. This meeting was
do various routine computer housekeeping chores-creating
ostensibly for discussing my concerns about other groups
and editing files, running programs-the interpreter trans-
providing the data necessary for me to meet my deadlines.
lated. The screen menus, with their Japanese menu choices,
The real reason for the meeting was to let Mr. Ikeda know
passed in a blur, and I soon realized that I would learn this
that he couldn't push me around.
system only by repetition.
Maybe it would have worked in America. But, as I was
Japanese menus or no-it was a familiarly frustrating
reminded whenever I looked up, I was not in America.
52
JULY 1990
In the short time I had been in Japan,
even I had learned that, when communi-
cating with the Japanese, you should
strive, above all, for indirectness. Try to
say what you want to say without coming
out and saying it.
I had begun to learn about this indirect-
ness even as I had interviewed for jobs in
Tokyo. Once, while interviewing for a job
rewriting translations of Japanese technical
documentation, I had asked a prospective
employer whether "perhaps it might be pos-
sible that" they might start me at a higher
rate per page.
An American employer might have just
said, "No, the rate is fixed." This Japanese
employer, however, never answered the
question. Instead, he told me a story about
a "very brilliant American" who had
worked several years for him.
"When he began to work for us," said
the employer, "he was only rewriting about
10 pages a day, and he was very discour-
aged and about to quit. But I encouraged
him, and soon he was increasing to 20 or 30 pages a day. And,
would leave at about three on Saturdays; people would look
by the time he left, he could rewrite 60 pages a day, and he
up, Ikeda would glare, and I would feel guilty. This Saturday,
was making about 1.2 million yen a month."
however, I was quite absorbed in what I was doing, and
Thus the clever employer had found a way of obliquely
everyone else was drifting out before me, until finally, at
encouraging me, but at the same time saying: No, the rate is
about 5:30, it was only Mr. Ikeda and me.
fixed.
"I am leaving now," he said, in baby Japanese, SO that I
could understand. I nodded and turned back to my work.
1 WILL TRY MY HARDEST
"You leave too," he said.
Unfortunately I had not yet become SO clever. I proceeded to
"Demo watashi wa shigoto shitai," I said. But I want to work.
try to solve my problems with Mr. Ikeda with all the subtlety
Mr. Ikeda motioned that he had to lock the steel door at
of an American bull in a china shop.
the end of our corridor. I had to leave or I would be locked in.
At the meeting, there came a point when Mr. Yatsuhashi
So we walked down the hall together, talking in simple lan-
said that they were concerned that I wasn't working fast
guage about an algorithm I was working on.
enough.
Mr. Ikeda locked the door behind us. I still really didn't
"Well," I responded, "things would be going a lot faster if
want to stop working, but my devotion would go only SO far.
the program I was working on had some comments in it."
In America, I could have taken the work home, but in Ameri-
I said this innocently, as if I were not aware that Mr. Ikeda
can computer shops there were no time clocks. If I took the
was the original author of this program.
work home here, I'd have to punch out first. As interesting as
I didn't need to understand Japanese to know that steam
the work was, I wasn't going to do it if I didn't get paid.
was coming out of Ikeda's ears. And, after the meeting, it
I thought for a minute, then pointed to a ping-pong table in
wasn't really necessary for MacTavish to whisper to me: "Mr.
the lobby and said: "Ikeda-san, watashi wa ima kono algorithm
I. seems quite upset."
ni tsuite cangaete imas. Ima shigoto shitai. Moshi ano tsukue
I had heard stories of Japanese workers who sat next to
ni shigoto shimas, daijobu desu ka?" I was thrilled. After two
each other for 40 years, despising each other all the time, but
months of classes, I was actually beginning to speak Japanese.
never letting anyone know about it. Mr. Ikeda and I were not
I had said: "Mr. Ikeda, I am now thinking about this algo-
so adept at concealing our feelings.
rithm. I want to work now. If I will work at that table, is that
Then I successfully met my first two deadlines. Things
okay?"
began to improve slightly. With the help of an American col-
Mr. Ikeda smiled broadly. "Asoko desu ka?" There? He
league named Roger, who had lived in Japan for 25 years and
laughed. "Daijobu desu." Okay.
spoke fluent Japanese, I was able to start getting the infor-
The following Monday, Mr. Ikeda came over to Roger's
mation I needed to do my work. It seemed that Mr. Ikeda
desk and, laughing, told a story about "Chyaneen san" (me)
grudgingly was beginning to respect at least my program-
with gestures toward the ping-pong table in the lobby.
ming abilities. And as for me, I also had to admit secretly to
"That really tickled him," Roger told me later. It dawned
myself that Mr. Ikeda was a skillful programmer, too.
on me then that Mr. Ikeda was happy because, on Saturday
However, the real turning point in my relationship with
afternoon, he had realized that I actually cared about my
Mr. Ikeda was an event that no one could have predicted.
work. By corollary, perhaps one reason he had been nasty
It was a normal Saturday about three months after I
before was that he thought I didn't care about the work. But
started working: I, along with just about everyone in the
why would he think that, I wondered. Perhaps it was my
department, was at my desk for most of the day. Usually, I
irreverent attitude-an irreverence extremely common in
WORLD MONITOR
53
routine, and the winter months passed
this way.
Then there was an explosion.
I had gotten to be friends with a
woman named Miss Inamura, who sat at
my group of desks and worked as a
translator. At lunchtime, we took turns
teaching each other Japanese and
English. After a while, there were sever-
al other women who sat in on the
English classes, and they each took
turns teaching me Japanese.
But my favorite was Miss Inamura.
Sometimes we even talked on the
phone after work. She would complain
about her boyfriend and I would try to
say wise things.
Then, one day, I invited a Japanese
friend of mine to meet me for lunch at The
Company.
Lunchtime was from 12:20 to 1:10
exactly every day. It was announced with
a cute little chime tune played over the
American programming shops.
loudspeakers. The chimes always reminded me of Romper
One day, after Mr. Ikeda had introduced a new portion of
Room.
our project to Roger and me, I said: "Ganbarimasu." I will try
My friend and I returned from lunch at about 1:20, and I
my hardest. It was a verb I would hear over and over in Jap-
brought her back to my department to show her where I
an. In a softball game, as I went up to bat, someone said:
worked. I introduced her to Miss Inamura and to Roger and
"Ganbatte kudasai." Please try your hardest.
then escorted her to the exit. When I got back, Miss Inamura
Mr. Ikeda responded to me: "Hai. ganbarimashoo." Yes.
met me at the door and said sternly: "You should not bring
Let's try our hardest. It is not difficult to imagine how Ameri-
friends to the office."
can computer programmers would respond to such earnest-
"Why not?"
ness. They would roll their eyes and mutter to each other:
"It disturbs people."
"Give me a break." Then they would go out and try their
I shook my head and sighed. "Okay. It's not such a big
hardest-grumbling all the while.
deal, but I won't do it anymore."
But Miss Inamura had more on her mind. "People are also
HOW'S IT GOING?
angry that you sometimes come back from lunch late."
A few weeks after the episode at the ping-pong table, late on
"I came back from lunch ten minutes late," I snapped
a Friday night, Mr. Ikeda pushed himself away from his ter-
defensively. "What's the problem?"
minal and walked over to me at mine.
"You've done this other times. You also come back late
"Doo desu ka?" he said. How's it going?
from the dinner break sometimes."
I don't really know how it happened. He was tired. So was
The dinner break-if you worked overtime, The Company
I. It was Friday night-almost time to go home-but all of a
gave you from 5:30 to 6 to eat dinner. I was furious.
sudden somehow Mr. Ikeda was asking me about countries I
It was no wonder, I thought, that nobody else was finish-
had visited before I came to Japan. It was the first time we
ing their work on this project. They were all too busy bowing
ever talked about anything other than work, and it really was
and following rules. Just last week, Mr. Ikeda had asked me
the last.
to do a part of the project which previously had been assigned
I asked Mr. Ikeda about his family, and he told me his
to a Japanese consulting firm. They had had the assignment
father worked in the government. He asked me about
for nearly three months, and had been unable to make any
mine-but how could I say, in Japanese: "My father is direc-
headway. I finished this assignment in three days. Why was
tor of a Jewish community-relations organization"? Finally I
this, I wondered. Certainly it was not because I was such a
just said that he was in politics.
great programmer.
Soon, though-perhaps sooner than we wanted-we
It was a myth, I thought, this idea of Japanese efficiency.
couldn't think of more things to say in language that I could
"Look, Miss Inamura," I said finally, "I don't think it's that
understand, and Mr. Ikeda stood up and said wearily: "Mata
important whether I come back from lunch at 1:10 or 1:13 as
ashita." Again tomorrow.
long as I'm doing my work."
"Mata ashita," I said.
"Everyone else is back at 1:10," she said. "You should be
I would be a liar if I said that everything was calm
too."
between Mr. Ikeda and me after that. Every week or two
"That's ridiculous. I'm the only person on this project
we'd have some sort of scrap, and I'd call MacTavish to blow
who's meeting his deadlines and now people are worrying
off steam and threaten to quit, and MacTavish would tell me
about my lunch habits. Do you want to know what time I go
to just "keep plodding along," and I would calm down and go
to the toilet, too? In the United States, I take lunch whenever
back to work the next day. So everything got to be a sort of
I want and come back when I'm ready and nobody bothers
54
JULY 1990
childreach sponsorship
Here's your chance to achieve
a small moral victory.
Gabriel Cortez
Colombia
Age 4
What would you do if you saw a
receive pictures of the child. Personal reports
lost, frightened child?
from our on-site overseas staff. And letters
Y
written in the child or family's own words.
ou'd probably stop, pick him up, brush away
You'll see that your money is going directly
his tears, and help him find his way. Without even
where it's needed most - into effective tailor-
thinking about it. And there's a reason.
made programs which help your sponsored
You know what's right.
child, his family and community help
themselves.
And right now, you can do just that. You can
In fact, for just $22 a month, you'll
act on instinct by reaching out to one desper-
make it possible for a child to have better
ately poor child, thousands of miles away. With
nutrition, health programs, schooling - and
your personal caring and help.
hope. That's only 72 cents a day. Imagine.
This is made possible because Childreach
Your spare change could change a child's life.
Sponsorship is a program of PLAN International
USA (formerly Foster Parents Plan) one of the
Please don't wait.
oldest and most respected sponsorship organizations
If you saw a helpless child on the street,
in the world. For over 53 years, PLAN International
you wouldn't wait. You'd help that instant.
USA has been a leader in linking caring sponsors with
Please don't wait now, either. Achieve a small
needy children and their families overseas.
moral victory!
As a Childreach Sponsor, you can help a child
who seldom has enough to eat. A decent place to
Become a Childreach Sponsor
sleep. Medical care. The chance to learn. Or hope.
with PLAN International USA.
It's your choice.
Call 1-800-225-1234
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where you'd like to help. In return, you'll
childreach
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Enroll me as a Childreach Sponsor to
Please send my New Sponsor Kit with my
Mr.
Mrs.
Miss
Ms.
The child who needs my help most.
sponsored child's photo and case history.
L376
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My check for $22 for the first month's
SOUTH AMERICA (Colombia, Ecuador,
sponsorship is enclosed.
Bolivia)
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State
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AFRICA (Burkina Faso, Egypt, Sierra
I can't sponsor right now, but I want to
Leone, Sudan, Togo, Guinea)
help. Enclosed is a contribution to the
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Mail to: Kenneth H. Phillips, President
$
PLAN International USA
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me as long as I'm getting my work done."
ness. Mr. Ikeda paid lip service to the group, but he seemed
"You're not in the United States now," said Miss Inamura,
quite willing to step away from it as well.
her voice trembling with anger.
As for Mr. Ikeda's reaction to the whole lunchtime tardi-
"That's for sure," I said, and we both walked away in a huff.
ness fracas-I really don't know. As a matter of fact, I don't
Later that day, I passed Miss Inamura a note asking her to
know if he was even aware that it was going on at all.
have lunch with me the next day SO that we could continue our
But of all my memories of the episode, the sweetest was
conversation and clear up "some misunderstandings." Miss
that of Mr. Ikeda wearily sitting down beside me at my termi-
Inamura then passed a note back to me:
nal the night I received my letter from Miss Inamura.
"It might be convenient for you to do so, but please always
I don't know whether he could tell that I was upset, but his
try to think about other's convenience too. I cannot meet you
voice did seem a little warmer than usual when he said: "Doo
for lunch tomorrow.
desu ka?" How's it going?
"If you don't keep the rules here, I think you'll get fired. A
I sighed, and said: "Kyo wa taihen deshita." Today was hard.
couple of months ago, there was a man who was fired because
He looked at me for a moment, then nodded, and turned
he didn't keep the rules and disturbed us. If you don't change
back to his terminal. We sat side by side for hours into the
your mind, I'm afraid that I cannot help you.
evening, sunk far into a galaxy of minutiae that the two of us
"I have no word to thank you for teaching me English. But
had created. The crazy day receded, and we were alone with
do you think you're helping people you work with? If you
our machines in a world that no one else around us could
tried to be kind and think about others a little bit more, you
understand. We hardly said a word to each other during those
could have improved this situation. Anyway, I have no time to
hours, but I was grateful for his presence.
discuss with you tomorrow. Actually, I don't want to talk with
you unless you notice your faults."
COME BACH WORK TOGETHER AGAIN
I was stunned. How had things gone SO far? I looked
I left The Company in the middle of March. My part of the
around me at the people who I had thought were my friends.
project was done.
Which were the ones who now didn't like me?
It was late in the afternoon, on my last day at the job, when
Mr. Ikeda and I said goodbye. He approached me carrying a
1 AM SORRY IF 1 UPSET YOU
small package.
That night I was in a rage. I was beginning to hate this coun-
"Chernin-san," he said, "a present."
try. But back in my tiny apartment, away from the need to
Inside the package was a "hanko," the small stamp that
spar and defend myself, I found myself wondering whether
Japanese use to formally affix their names on papers at banks
Miss Inamura had actually been right. If we were being paid
and the like. For my hanko, Mr. Ikeda had chosen two charac-
by the tick of the clock, wasn't it reasonable that I should be
ters that, taken together, could be pronounced "chya-nin."
there for all the ticks? Was I, in the name of individualism,
My new Japanese name meant "teahouse master"-the
treating myself as superior to my friends?
man who serves as host at the Japanese "tea ceremony," the
In the end, my simple longing to keep my friends turned
highly formalized Zen tea drinking ritual.
out to be stronger than any other feeling I had that evening. I
In the package which Mr. Ikeda gave me, he had included
wrote Miss Inamura a letter:
his address, and a chapter from a book about tea ceremonies.
"I am sorry if I have upset you. Out of respect for you, but
My eyes were drawn to a paragraph saying that the underly-
not out of respect for the rules-which I still find silly-I will
ing philosophy of the tea ceremony, and the reason for the
do my best to be more punctual..."
careful attention to small details, was that "...each encounter
From that day on, I always returned from lunch at exactly
with someone, even a friend whom you see often, should be
1:10. Miss Inamura and I became friends again, and I had to
treated as if it were a once in a lifetime occurrence-as if
admit that I did feel more a part of the group, now that I was
today were the last time you might meet."
following the rules. It was not the most comfortable feeling for
There was something else I noticed. Above his address,
me, but it was far more comfortable than the tension that arose
Mr. Ikeda had written, in English: "Come back work together
from going too far outside the norm. It seemed that I had
again." It was an idea that had come up before. Once, strug-
learned some kind of lesson about being Japanese.
gling for Japanese that I could understand, he had even sug-
Perhaps consideration for one's colleagues-a desire not
gested that I should stay in Japan "until death."
to let them down-is what enables some Japanese companies
I had listened politely. How could I tell him that I could
to produce high-quality products with such apparent efficien-
never live this life forever: always eating lunch by someone
cy. But it also might have to do with why there are problems
else's schedule, working by punch clock, always being polite
in Japanese software projects such as mine-and why SO lit-
and never making waves?
tle original software currently comes out of Japan. Because,
Now though, on our last day together, I felt suddenly sad
when it comes down to it, the computer programmer basically
to be saying goodbye.
works alone. He may plan a project in conjunction with oth-
We stood there alone in the computer alcove where we had
ers, but when he sits down at the terminal, he is alone. The
spent SO much time, and I looked Mr. Ikeda in the eyes. I
group has nothing to do with it. Programming requires indi-
thanked him profusely in Japanese, and shook his hand.
vidual creativity, and individual creativity requires moving
But somehow this did not seem enough.
into unknown waters, away from the group.
So, facing Mr. Ikeda on our last afternoon, I bowed.
I don't think it's any coincidence that Mr. Ikeda, by far the
In Japan there are many kinds of bows. Sometimes it is
most productive and creative programmer I met in Japan,
just a nod of the head, sometimes a sort of hunching forward
was kind of a lone wolf. Mr. Ikeda was refreshingly rude.
of the shoulders. The deeper the bow, the more respect is
When he was angry-which was quite often-I always knew
intended.
it. There was no attempt to hide his irritation behind polite-
I bowed very low, from the waist.
WM
JULY 1990
56
DOW SLIPS. MONEY NEWS OF THE DAY
and variety of
oned, a passing cage
platform where
eague films, an auto-
with Saints and Na-
or clinics on
with strength coach
Morton Andersen,
take part in a kicking
Finks and Coach Jim
Saints General Manager
the sales pitches, fans
PACK the aged & Tans ased TO Suag pue FACES Auguentes
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MAY 1989
WORLD
VOL.2,NO.5
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THE CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR® MONTHLY
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NUTMEG
WARS
By Clayton Jones
With products worth their weight in gold, the Spice
Islands lured Western powers to battle centuries ago.
Today a different kind of turbulence echoes from
Indonesia to post-invasion Grenada.
A
HE SPICE ISLANDS ARE DIFFICULT TO
tators expect to be the
pinpoint on a globe. Early European
Age of Asia, will dawn
mapmakers labeled this area, like SO
with no Western colo-
many other mysterious places, terra
nial presence.
incognita or, sometimes, "where Drag-
The Dutch East
ons be." It lies in the Moluccas, a scat-
India Company went
tering of a thousand islands that strad-
bankrupt in 1795,
dle the equator and make up one of 27
and the Dutch spice
provinces in Indonesia.
monopoly was offi-
To possess what grows on these islands, kings
cially ended in 1873, in
and queens risked fortunes, explorers dared, wars
large part because of the high cost
were waged.
of posting troops and building and maintain-
And all for the pleasure of dazzling the tongue.
ing forts. The knockout blow to the Dutch mo-
CHINA
The craving for other goods from the Orient-
nopoly came in the mid-1700s when a French-
gold, tea, teak, Toyotas-came later.
man, Pierre Poive, smuggled a few nutmeg
Moluccas
Spices, with their scents of paradise, were the
and clove seeds to Mauritius. Until then, it
BANDA
stuff that first beckoned valiant mariners. The
had been assumed that trees and plants could
cloves, nutmeg, cinnamon, and pepper that had
not be grown in places other than where they
INDONESIA
grown for centuries in the islands of Asia were what
were found. The 17th-century German
motivated Europe's first conquests in this region.
AUSTRALIA
botanist Georg Rumpf, for instance, had written
The search for shorter routes to the source of spices
that cloves were God-given to these islands
led Columbus to seek a westward passage, Vasco da
"beyond which, by no human industry, can they be
Gama to sail around the Horn of Africa, Magellan to
propagated or perfectly cultivated."
try to circumnavigate the globe.
Dutch traders' greed was stemmed by the
WORTH THE TRIP:
Spices stoked Europe's bland medieval cooking
Frenchman's smuggled seeds, which propagated
Old and new maps
into culinary virtuosity. They preserved meat
spice trees around the globe, leaving Indonesia
(above) show
across seasons, changing dietary habits, the
struggling today to make something of its spices.
islands that
nature of hunting, and the use of time. So trea-
Only 1%, or about $200 million, of the country's
throughout history
sured that they merited display, they inspired, yes,
exports comes from spices.
have lured traders
the spice rack.
But that doesn't mean spices are not a tempting
in spices such as
target for monopoly. Indonesia is the largest ex-
nutmeg. It comes
THE CASE OF THE SMUGGLED SEEDS
porter of pepper in a weak cartel of world produc-
from the aromatic
Once discovered, the Spice Islands were the fore-
ers. In nutmeg, cacao, vanilla, cinnamon, and other
seed (opposite
taste of Western empires in Asia. Before the first
such commodities, it has tried to fix a market
page) whose red
Europeans dropped anchor in Asia, they could
share.
fiber covering pro-
obtain spices only at exorbitant prices and from
Frans Hausjahl explains that his company on
duces the even
Arabs who brought them overland. Pepper was
Ternate, Sumber Utama, joined up with an Indo-
more expensive
worth its weight in gold. In England during the
nesia government campaign in 1986 to create a
mace.
Middle Ages cloves served as currency. In Ger-
world monopoly in nutmeg. Mr. Hausjahl bought
many, a pound of nutmeg could buy seven oxen.
Photo opposite page: Clayton
tons of nutmeg from farmers at high prices when
Jones. Map courtesy of Timothy
The spice trade supplied much of the wealth that
the monopoly succeeded-for about a year-in
Carney. Globe by Dave Herring
helped bring about the Italian Renaissance. For
tripling world prices.
centuries, spices were a significant force in the
But then the price collapsed. Today he is stuck
global economy.
with debt and piles of the spice. Other nutmeg
Sir Francis Drake was astounded to find SO
exporters fell into the same trap.
many cloves on his visit to the island of Ternate in
1579 that "we furnished our selves of as much as
THE GRENADA CONNECTION
we desired at a very cheap rate."
Indonesia produces 78% of the world's nutmeg,
But, like a fabled perfume that eventually
with most of the rest grown on Grenada in the
fades, the Spice Islands, whose presence was once
West Indies. In 1983, when the US military invad-
SO powerful, have ceased to claim world attention.
ed Grenada, that island's production was disrupt-
After all, it has been more than four centuries
ed, briefly raising world prices.
since the chemistry of spices first brought East and
Indonesia, seeing the potential for high profits,
Clayton Jones, Tokyo-
West together. A long chapter of East-meets-West
asked Grenada to join it in forming a cartel. In-
based correspondent of
will end when the Portuguese, the first to sail into
donesia then corralled its nutmeg exporters,
The Christian Science
Asia, turn over the colony of Macao-the last rem-
almost all of whom are ethnic Chinese, into a
Monitor, travels often
nant of early Western colonialism in Asia-to China
group called Aspin, and allocated quotas to each.
throughout Southeast
in 1999. So the next century, which some commen-
"It's as if the Dutch East India Company had
Asia.
WORLD MONITOR
59
kers of Europe. He
than
as
DWWARKS
said their "vast Com-
These Western ruins in Asia are footnotes to
merce consists in being
history. Once manned by helmeted musketeers,
supplied from All Parts
the ramparts now are patrolled by nibbling goats.
of the World, that they
In the modern spice port of Manado, I saw young
may supply All the
men toying with an old sextant, aiming it at the
World again."
midday sun.
With their niche
The spice trade was built on the notion of exclu-
Photo: Clayton Jones
WORLD MONITOR
61
come back again," said William van der Broeke, a
nutmeg. But once Run was one of the world's most
descendant of Dutch settlers who became an
valuable pieces of real estate, coveted for that
Indonesian citizen after the Netherlands gave up
same-then rare-nutmeg. The English, calling
its colony in 1949.
themselves "gentlemen adventurers," landed on
But this time the nutmeg sellers' cartel met its
Run in 1601, sent by Queen Elizabeth I on her
match in a nutmeg buyers' cartel. Oddly enough,
country's first commercial venture to the East
the buyers were led by a Dutch company, Catz
Indies. In 1667, after a series of sea battles with
International of Rotterdam. which has been in the
the Dutch, the English swapped Run for a small
M
alik Hamadje's clove garden lies near a 376-year-old clove
tree, planted in the time of Shakespeare and believed to be the
oldest in the world.
sive cultivation within a narrow ecology. Such eco-
and a brother of Indonesia's President Suharto,
nomic concepts are still widespread in Asia, where
has helped to keep clove prices to farmers low.
the Asian rules of commerce, a form of pre-capital-
"We're at the mercy of others who set the
ist mercantilism, do not always accept competition
prices," says Malik Hamadje, a sixth-generation
as a necessary way of business life. Chinese, Japa-
clove farmer on Ternate. He owns 50 trees high up
nese, Koreans, Thais, and others often spend more
on the island's volcano. Every day he climbs the
energy damaging competitors than expanding
steep slope to harvest cloves-flower buds which
their markets. Governments protect local business
must be picked unopened. He earns about $1,000 a
elites in a silent conspiracy by granting monopoly
year. During the peak month for blooms, he lives
rights, exclusive licenses, or subsidies. This can
among the trees to scare away birds.
create a crony capitalism-which became exces-
sive in the Marcos Philippines-that both concen-
THE SCENTED BREATH OF COURTIERS
trates and abuses power.
The nail-shaped clove, which Indonesians call by a
Chinese name, cengkeh, was used in China to scent
THE CLOVE-LACED CIGARETTE
the breath of royal courtiers before they ap-
Ironically, Indonesia-once the world's sole source
proached the emperor. Romans burned them along
of cloves-has become an importer of cloves. This
roads as incense. Today, they are used to add a
coals-to-Newcastle situation came about during
musky odor to perfumes, as flavor studs on baked
CAPTURING THE 'GOLDEN
this century when Indonesians started to smoke
ham, and in pickled fruit, stews, syrups, and choco-
SPICE': Picker uses
clove-laced cigarettes, or kreteks, which crackle and
late mixes.
long pole with
spark, emitting a scent that identifies Indonesians
"We used to plant a clove tree when a child was
built-on basket to
wherever they go in the world. In 1988, they
born," says Hamadje. "But with low prices, no one
dislodge ripe nut-
smoked over 100 billion kreteks. Despite high
does it anymore." His garden lies near a 376-year-
meg and lower it
domestic demand, many farmers have turned to
old clove tree, planted in the time of Shakespeare
gently to the
crops other than cloves. A domestic trading
and believed to be the oldest in the world.
ground.
monopoly, led by an ethnic Chinese businessman
More to the point, the tree was planted after
Photo Clayton Jones
62
JULY 1990
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dreds of miles over many islands.
The modern spice industry still looks like a big
bully to little spice farmers. It has become techno-
logically complex and computerized. One meat-
products company in the United States, the coun-
try that has become the world's largest spice
importer, keeps 40,000 formulas of spice mixes in
its computers.
"Spices are no longer a smell and taste indus-
try," says Tom Burns, executive vice-president of
the American Spice Trade Association. "We
demand more uniformity of flavors, so scientific
control is more rigid."
The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA),
whose quality standards on imports are difficult
for Indonesians to understand, rejects about 10%
of the country's spice shipments.
"I've seen nutmegs with neat holes drilled in
them by bugs," says FDA official Frank McKeith.
"Some are even jumping."
Nutmeg as well as cloves is grown on Ternate
these days. Near one ruined fortress stands a nut-
meg warehouse that is packed to the ceiling with
unsold nutmeg.
As in cloves, nutmeg farmers don't have much
incentive to maintain trees. On Banda, which now
produces a low share of Indonesia's crop, the num-
ber of trees has fallen from more than half a mil-
lion to fewer than 170,000.
THE KEY INGREDIENT
The greatest danger to Banda's stock is that farm-
ers have been picking unripe fruit in the past dec-
ade to satisfy a rising world demand for nutmeg oil.
The oil, which can be extracted only from young
nutmeg, is a key ingredient in many perfumes and
Photo: Clayton Jones
in preservatives.
THEN AND NOW:
the Dutch had killed all clove trees on Ternate and
High demand for the oil is killing Banda's trees.
Banana carrier's
other islands in order to concentrate spice produc-
"The tree's life is cut in half because it overpro-
backdrop is
tion on Ambon and Banda. This old tree was prob-
duces when the young fruit is picked," says Welkie
Dutch architec-
ably the source for that original French seed
Riupasi, a plantation manager.
ture hinting at for-
smuggler. Six feet around, it produces a massive
Des Alwi, who owns his own nutmeg garden,
mer glory in
200 pounds of cloves a year.
would like Indonesia to stop the oil production as
islands that have
well as nutmeg exports for a year to allow Banda's
lost their exclusive
THE SACRED CROWN
trees to recover.
claim to spices.
When Jesuit St. Francis Xavier visited these
And he wants the government out of the busi-
islands in 1546, he called them "islands of divine
ness and the dominance of ethnic Chinese reduced
hope." And Somerset Maugham, in his travels as a
by giving some say in the industry to indigenous
novelist in colonial Southeast Asia, referred to this
Indonesians.
area as "the magic islands of the Eastern seas."
Although nutmeg grows elsewhere now, it
On Ternate, a little of that magic and mystery
rarely has the same richness, productivity, and
lingers in the sultanate's sacred crown, which is
even round shape as the original Banda variety.
hundreds of years old and made of jewels and
"The seed, when taken elsewhere, degenerates,"
human hair.
says Alwi.
"People here still believe the crown can give
"The old European wars over Banda-it's the
them power," says Effendi Syah, brother of the
same thing now. All the kings in Europe liked a
current sultan.
good cuisine. Today, it's the big companies that
"People on Ternate need that faith," he says.
want a good preservative from nutmeg oil.
"They are poor, and the clove trade is influenced
"If we don't act soon, we could lose the mother
by big traders."
nutmeg clone on Banda within a hundred years."
Indeed, in the 16th century, the Portuguese
And the spice that launched a thousand ships
killed the sultan of Ternate after he refused to deal
will vanish into memory, like a siren song that
with them. At the time, his kingdom spread hun-
teased sailors with its promise of delight.
WM
64
JULY 1990
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©1990 V56 ADVERTISEMENT
IF YOU'RE NOT RECYCLING
YOU'RE THROWING IT ALL AWAY. SM
A little reminder from the Environmental Defense Fund
Environmental Defense Fund at: EDF-Recycling, 257 Park
that if you're not recycling, you're throwing away a lot more
Avenue South, New York, NY 10010, for a free brochure that
than just your trash.
will tell you virtually everything
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Council
© 1988 EDF
By Maryann N. Keller
CARS
The Race for
Eastern Europe
All five main
UESTION: WHAT'S THE DIFFERENCE
position in Eastern Europe. The Western car
markets are differ-
between a Communist economy and the
industry has been drawn into that region more
ent, as Western
free market?
quickly and completely than any other industry.
Answer: A Trabi.
automakers are
On the surface the opportunities for carmakers
Q: A what?
seem incredible-a kind of last frontier of growth
quickly finding out.
A: A Trabant, better known as Trabi. You know,
compared to the rest of Europe, North America, or
that East German car that belches smoke. The lit-
Japan where car ownership saturation is approach-
tle vehicle that first amused then irritated West
ing as multiple-car households become the norm.
Germans by sputtering slowly along Berlin streets
But, as automakers descend on Eastern Europe,
and the Autobahn after the wall came down.
they are discovering that each of the seven countries
Q: What's a Trabi got to do with economic sys-
(the six former members of the Soviet bloc plus
tems?
Yugoslavia) is distinct in terms of its potential to
A: Think about it. One month you have a
operate and support a modern automotive industry.
Communist government with a command economy
Differences include the buying power of the popu-
and a wall. So there's a 14-year waiting list to buy a
lace, ability to generate hard currency, ability to
Trabi-even though it's not very safe over 40
establish cost and quality control, and the evolution
SALVAGEABLE?: East
m.p.h., it's tiny and
of legislation making it
Germany's out-
tinny, and it emits
permissible for for-
moded Trabant
more smoke than
eign private compa-
will get four-stroke
Groucho Marx. The
nies to invest in do-
VW engine in
next month the
mestic businesses or
effort to lure buy-
Communists are on
own them outright.
ers and forestall
the run, ditto the
Of the seven coun-
unemployment
command economy,
tries-East Germany,
among autowork-
and the wall looks
Czechoslovakia, Hun-
ers in Zwickau
like a sieve.
gary, Poland, Yugosla-
until VW can
Poof! no waiting
via, Romania, Bul-
begin producing its
list. Everyone wants
garia-only the latter
own models in
to buy a used Volks-
two have failed to
East Germany.
wagen from West
attract interest from
Germany instead.
TTE8-56
global carmakers. The
In fact, one of the
industry has gravitat-
hottest trends in
ed to the countries
Europe involves
Photo © Keystone/The Image Works
where business poten-
Maryann N. Keller is a
entrepreneurs buying up used cars in Western
tial appears largest and most predictable and the
leading automobile indus-
Europe, shipping them to Eastern Europe, and set-
economic climate most favorable. West German
try analyst who travels
ting up used car dealerships there. The next trend
investments in East Germany (by Volkswagen,
frequently to Europe and
is going to be starting repair and service shops for
Daimler-Benz, and Opel, the West German sub-
Japan from her office at
all these previously unavailable Western brands.
sidiary of General Motors) have put East Germany
the New York securities
The morality tale of what happened to East
out ahead of its eastern neighbors. Among the rest,
firm of Furman Selz Mager
Germany's Trabant is exactly the kind of scenario
Poland and Hungary are in the forefront in seeking
Dietz & Birney Inc.
that is driving global automakers to scramble for a
to remove legal barriers to investment, with
WORLD MONITOR
67
by the depreciation of the zloty. Result:
The government cannot easily find capi-
tal to invest in modernization, and con-
sumers are hard-pressed to keep up with
inflation and buy new cars.
Fiat has dominated the market since
1960, and the two Polish state-owned
car builders, FSO and FSM, assemble a
variety of old Fiat models for sale local-
ly. Japan's econo-carmaker; Daihatsu, is
evaluating an investment in Poland, but
the country's economic problems are
likely to discourage investment on the
scale seen in Hungary, Czechoslovakia,
and East Germany.
EAST GERMANY
Eastern Europeans' own dissatisfaction
Photo © Shepard Sherbell/SABA
with the cars built in the East is evi-
A TOP LINE: Using 1960s technology, Czechoslovakia's Skoda factory in Bohemia produces
dent. Faltering demand for East Ger-
the compact Favorit with assistance from Bertone Design and Porsche Engineering. The
many's Trabant is a case in point. It
Favorit meets US emissions standards but is not exported to the United States.
appears to have a very limited life
expectancy as German reunification
Czechoslovakia not far behind.
as many vehicles. Annual sales of auto-
approaches. When the border between
The recent experience of Western
mobiles in the East are about 8% of
East and West Germany was opened
automakers in China suggests a need for
sales in Western Europe.
last November, East Germans hungrily
caution, however. About ten years ago
Poland has about 3.8 million cars on
bought up the stock of used Volks-
global auto firms were attracted by eco-
its roads-only 1 car for every 10 peo-
wagens and Opels. More than 100,000
nomic reforms in China. With more than
ple. East Germany has the highest con-
used VWs were brought back into East
a billion people and almost no private
centration of automobiles in Eastern
Germany in the first two months after
ownership of vehicles, China seemed to
Europe, with 1 car for every 5 people.
the Berlin Wall came down.
provide a staggering potential demand
Romania has only 1 car for every 50
When the East German border
for cars. A decade later many car-build-
people.
opened, Volkswagen executives were
ing operations in China have shut down
By contrast, in West Germany there
ready to take advantage of that historic
or are operating well below their poten-
is nearly 1 car for every 2 people and in
event. VW's Wolfsburg headquarters,
tial. More distressing for profitmaking
Austria 1 car for every 3. The United
only 40 kilometers from the border, was
companies, these investments have
States has 1 car for every 2 people.
near the easternmost edge of West
proven to be black holes in terms of their
Such figures underscore the huge
Germany. Now Volkswagen finds itself
ability to suck up capital.
potential of these countries to absorb
in the center of a soon-to-be-reunited
While no auto company wants to be
more than the approximately 1 million
country.
left behind in the European market, it
automobiles currently purchased each
Common language, culture, and cur-
may be that better deals can be struck
year. Consumer demand-and ability to
rency make it easier for the big German
there after the various economies stabi-
pay for more expensive new cars-is
firm to invest in East Germany than for
lize. There's really no corporate law to
expected to rise to some 2 million cars a
most other Western automakers to
protect outside automakers, to guaran-
year in the region by 1996.
invest elsewhere in the East. More than
tee they can repatriate capital, be pro-
But Eastern European cars, even
1,000 cooperative deals already have
tected against confiscation, be safe from
those produced under license from a
been struck between West German
arbitrary pricing of utility services or
Western automaker, are notoriously un-
companies and their East German
raw materials controlled by govern-
reliable. Most of them are poor in quality,
counterparts. Volkswagen has led the
ment agencies. But for now-euphoria
old-fashioned in design, and very small
way with some of the most ambitious
is taking precedence over pragmatism.
in size. In addition, the assembly facto-
projects.
And not just for outside carmakers.
ries left behind by the crumbling com-
When Volkswagen executives visited
Government planners and citizens are
munist regimes are SO outmoded that
VEB Sachsenring Automobilwerk, the
also beguiled by ideas of producing and
they have shocked Western automakers.
manufacturer of Trabants in Zwickau,
owning locally made or assembled cars.
they were appalled to find turn-of-the-
Before long the beautiful, empty, clean
POLAND
century machinery still in operation.
streets of cities like Prague will be filled
Poland faces extraordinary hurdles in
The factory spews SO much pollution
with cars-and the noise, pollution, and
modernizing its industry. The country's
into the air that the logical step would
traffic congestion they generate.
economy is in danger as prices have
seem to be to shut it down. But that
The market for new cars would
risen 400% under a new austerity pro-
would create a crisis in Zwickau-
appear to be assured, too. Eastern Eu-
gram instituted early this year, and there
11,305 of the city's 100,000 inhabitants
rope as a whole has about 38% as many
is a scarcity of hard currency. Poland's
work in the factory.
people as Western Europe but only 13%
enormous external debt was worsened
VW chairman, Carl Hahn, is espe-
68
JULY 1990
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implement the necessary legislation to
permit foreign investment, foreign
automakers are optimistic about busi-
ness prospects there. Volkswagen and
Renault are vying to become partners
with the state-owned builder of the
Skoda Favorit, the only East European
car to be exported in meaningful num-
bers to Western Europe.
Despite Czechoslovakia's shortage of
capital for joint ventures, its desire for a
partner to upgrade the Skoda cars, and
especially their engines, will almost cer-
tainly result in an eventual deal. Not to
be outdone by AZNP, Czechoslovakia's
Bratislavshi Automobilone Zarody is
searching for a partner to produce a
small van. Renault, Ford, and Toyota
are competing for that assignment.
Photo © Filip Horvat/SABA
READY TO DEAL: Zagreb used car market offers considerable choice to buyers in Yugoslavia,
YUGOSLAVIA
whose own exported Yugo has not fared well in the United States.
Yugoslavia has several state-owned
automakers that have relied on coopera-
cially sensitive to the dislocations within
Ford has established fewer than a dozen
tive relationships with Renault, Peugeot,
the auto industry that will be caused by
dealers SO far in East Germany.
and Fiat. It is the only Eastern Euro-
reunification. He argues that advan-
Daimler-Benz has established a joint
pean country to export cars to the
tages and disadvantages will tend to
venture with East Germany's IFA to
United States, the ill-fated Yugo being
balance out. He maintains, for example,
develop, produce, and market light- and
better known for poor quality than its
that low wages in East Germany will
medium-weight trucks. Daimler said it
low price. Although Yugoslavia has a
not stay that way very long, and,
will have to abandon existing IFA facili-
large auto industry by East European
because of the decaying infrastructure,
ties and start over. The $600 million
standards, it is a grossly inefficient one.
East Germany will require huge
price tag scared off other truck manu-
Zastava, builder of the Yugo, also faces
amounts of capital.
facturers, who were overwhelmed at
labor problems.
Volkswagen already had ties to the
the lack of competitiveness of East Ger-
East German auto industry through an
many's truck industry.
HUNGARY
engine plant that began shipment of
The explosion of the car population
General Motors dealt with Budapest's
diesel engines to the West in the fall of
has strained gasoline supplies and repair
hard-currency shortage with a venture
1989. In addition, VW was already buy-
facilities. East Germany has no unleaded
that it set up just before the upheaval in
ing car batteries and headlamps from
fuel, so catalytic converters to reduce
Eastern Europe. In conjunction with
East Germany. VW plans to invest up to
pollution are useless. Nissan, which is
the state-owned company RABA, GM
$3 billion to build 250,000 cars per year
not planning any direct investments in
formed a joint venture in which it will
by 1995-96. Before that, VW will gradu-
the East at present, sees a long-term
invest $150 million for a 67% stake.
ally phase in production of knocked
opportunity in developing a network of
That venture will earn hard currency
down kits of the small VW Polo to pro-
repair shops to fix the used Japanese
by producing for export 150,000 4-cylin-
vide work for people displaced by the
cars now crossing into Eastern Europe.
der engines and assembling from kits
lack of sales of the old-fashioned
15,000 GM cars for the local market.
Trabant. VW has begun establishing
CZECHOSLOVAKIA
Suzuki is the first Japanese auto-
dealers for its Volkswagen, Seat, and
Czechoslovakia faces tremendous eco-
maker to sign a deal in Eastern Europe.
Audi models.
nomic problems because of its wasteful
By 1992 it expects to produce 15,000
Adam Opel, General Motors' Ger-
consumption of energy and a sharply
minivans a year in Hungary, with an
man operation, has announced a joint
rising fuel bill (thanks to the Soviet
ultimate goal of 50,000 vehicles.
venture with VEB Automobil-Werk in
Union's reduction of subsidized oil ex-
What's obvious from this tour of
Eisenach, the manufacturer of East
ports). The AZNP plant that produces
Eastern Europe is that global automak-
Germany's other car, the Wartburg.
the Skoda, the best Eastern European
ers find the numbers enticing when it
The venture plans to produce 150,000
car in terms of reliability and design, is
comes to low wages and pent-up con-
Opel Kadetts per year within a few
woefully outmoded. Built in 1905 and
sumer demand. But not so enticing
years. Opel has already established 38
refurbished in 1964, the Skoda plant
when it comes to potential inflation, local
dealers in East Germany. Many Euro-
has seen little investment since then
partners' lack of hard currency, and
peans don't associate Opel with GM,
and needs 15,500 people working two
local consumers' lack of disposable
and its German heritage has given it a
shifts to assemble 710 cars a day. This is
income for buying cars.
significant advantage over Ford, the
less than half the productivity of mod-
Many automakers got burned in
third-largest producer in West Ger-
ern assembly complexes.
China. They don't want to risk a repeat
many, which is viewed as American.
Although Czechoslovakia has yet to
in Eastern Europe.
WM
70
JULY 1990
SOME THINGS
NEVER GO OUT
OF STYLE.
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The American
the people.
flag. A Tiffany
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American heritage.
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From the momentous
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to
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to the masterful strokes of
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0642
By Megumi Oka
TRAVEL
The Time to Go
to Guadeloupe
Caribbean
HE WOMEN WERE CLUSTERED IN THE
celebrations elsewhere in Guadeloupe.
history comes alive
T
shade, their dresses exuberantly col-
August is the traditional vacation month of the
in the sunbathed
ored-a profusion of red, blue, and yel-
French, when Paris residents leave the city to Amer-
low flowers flounced over ample white
ican tourists. Guadeloupe is popular as a vacation
festival of
petticoats-their heads wrapped in bright madras
destination for the French, the fete itself is covered
'Cuisinières,'
turbans. They wore heavy gold chains about their
on French mainland television, and hotel rooms can
whose jewelry,
necks and wrists, and delicate earrings that glint-
be hard to find. Few Americans, however, have dis-
clothing-and
ed in the sun. Some were sedately fanning them-
covered the attraction of Guadeloupe in August.
selves, their fans a vivid swirl of color, as others
I was unable to resist the invitation to attend
food-bring
preened and tucked up their
the big event last summer, par-
together Europe,
skirts, revealing the white lace
ticularly as it meant a chance to
India, Africa, and
below. Others arrived bearing
visit Guadeloupe, a Caribbean
elaborate platters of food:
island group that is still a part
points west.
flaming red giant crayfish,
of France, a département
arched backs decorated with
d'outre mer (overseas depart-
lemon slices; grilled red snap-
ment). I had been quite capti-
FUTURE COOK?: Young
per bathed in herbs and vinai-
vated by neighboring Marti-
girl at fete wears
grette; a glistening roast duck
nique and was curious to com-
Cuisinières' dis-
surrounded by carved oranges.
pare these two vestiges of
tinctive madras
The women carried baskets
French colonial power. Further-
costume, including
overflowing with bananas, cus-
more, as far as I was concerned,
tête créole head-
tard apples, pineapples, and
any island that celebrated its
dress and gold
other local fruits. The baskets
cooks-and its women cooks, at
beads.
were ornamented with doll-
that-had much to commend it.
sized cooking utensils that jan-
The Fête des Cuisinières is a
gled as the women moved, and
joyous celebration, but the com-
with red anthuriums whose
plicated history of Guadeloupe's
long stalks waved. These were
relationship with slavery re-
the women cooks of Guade-
mains in the air. Many Carib-
Megumi Oka writes about
loupe-as they readied them-
All photos © Suzanne Murphy
bean societies, including Guade-
her travels from the expe-
selves for the Fête des Cuisinières (Festival of
loupe, are matriarchies. During the days of slav-
rience of living on three
Women Cooks), quite impervious to the heat, the
ery, children obtained their legal status from their
continents. WM has had
honking cars, and the scrappy group of townspeo-
mother and belonged to the owners of the mother,
her words from Austria,
ple, tourists, and journalists who were gawking at
not the father.
Denmark, and Marti-
them in the broiling sun. The women looked proud,
Women are honored and respected as the
nique. In Paris she stud-
and serious, as they kissed each other with grace-
repositories of culture, a tradition that has its roots
ied cooking and cooked
fully inclined heads.
in Africa. Many are the effective heads of their
professionally. In New
The Fête des Cuisinières is an annual festival in
households. They work and contribute to the
York she imports books
the city of Pointe-à-Pitre, taking place in August
financial support of their children, and are respon-
for Kitchen Arts & Letters
and celebrating the feast day of St. Laurent, the
sible for most major family decisions. They often
Inc. This spring she revis-
patron saint of the Cuistot Mutuel (Organization of
make life easier by creating support groups of
ited Japan.
Women Cooks). It launches six months of smaller
extended family or networks of friends.
72
JULY 1990
inenager.
120
The Cuistot Mutuel was founded in 1916, dur-
her mother carefully saved money for each bead,
TURBANS, FOULARDS,
ing the hardships of World War I, to provide mem-
determined to make a sound investment for her
AND LOCAL FOODS:
bers with some form of insurance coverage for
daughter's future.
Top-knotted head-
medical and funeral expenses. This was before
Most of the women assembling for the festival
dresses and cos-
Guadeloupe had become a full département of
were draped in gold, with a dozen or more chains,
tumes reminiscent
France with all the attendant social security rights
bracelets up both arms, and large dangling ear-
of plantation days
for its citizens.
rings in the shapes of grape clusters or heartlike
identify Cui-
Over the years the organization has provided
custard apples. I was quickly put in my place when
sinières, bringing
moral support as members have moved from cook-
I wondered aloud if the ornaments were real gold:
baskets of fresh
ing privately-for their families or employers-to
Each piece, I was told, was handcrafted by local
local ingredients
cooking professionally and often owning their own
master craftsmen of 18 carat gold from French
to festival in
restaurants. In Guadeloupe it is the women cooks
Guiana.
Pointe-à-Pitre.
who are talked about, it is their restaurants one
The brilliant dresses and starched, rustling pet-
frequents-Prudence's, Violetta's, or Jeanne's;
ticoats are copies of those worn by the cooks in the
not, as in mainland France, Paul's, Alain's, or
great plantation homes. The style seems to have
Marc's.
evolved from the European dress that the colo-
Guadeloupe's history is reflected in the cooks'
nists brought-transformed by the African and
sumptuous gold jewelry: strings of beads, some
Indian heritage of the Caribbean. Colors are vi-
bigger than marbles (and known as collier choux
brant, dominated by the yellows and oranges of
or graines d'or), of a kind that originated in the
the madras turbans.
days when a master gave his favorite slaves one
The bodices of the dresses are 19th-century
bead at a time on special occasions. Eventually the
European in style, with a foulard (scarf) worn over
beads were strung together, and the necklace be-
the shoulders like a shawl and secured with a gold
came a public affirmation of one's good standing.
brooch. The striking difference is the puffy folds
Heavier gold chain necklaces, known as chaines de
caused by picking the skirts up above the hem and
forcat, and thick handcuff bracelets symbolize the
tucking them into the waistband at several points,
actual chains that were used to bind the slaves.
creating wonderful drapes. This custom may have
After slavery was abolished, such jewelry was still
evolved from the voluminous boubous worn in
greatly prized, and one Cuisinière described how
parts of Africa, and seen in 18th-century litho-
WORLD MONITOR
73
Bringing a Taste of the Islands Home
COCONUT ICE CREAM
ley, and some thyme. Then
Overlooking the rocks at
add bread mixture and stir
Pointe des Châteaux, which
well. Season with salt, pep-
juts into the Atlantic Ocean, a
per, and lemon juice.
young man was scooping
Wash crab shells and dry
fresh coconut ice cream from
them. Place filling in mound
a well-worn handcranked
on top of shells. Sprinkle
churn. It was a race against
with dried bread crumbs and
the sun-and the hordes of
broil for 1 minute.
children clamoring for more
-but the slurpy scoop I tried
CHIQUETAILLE DE MORUE (adapt-
was so luscious, pure coconut,
ed from "Delices de la Cui-
refreshingly cold, smooth and
sine Creole," edited by
creamy, with a delicate after-
EGGS WITH A DIFFERENCE: The addition of curry and land crabs to the
Francis Delage, formerly of
taste of nutmeg, that I
filling gives stuffed eggs the piquant flavor of Guadeloupe.
Guadeloupe, who has a res-
rushed back for more. But
taurant, La Plantation, in
the sun was victorious, and he
about the island food. They
6 chopped scallions
Paris).
was packing to go home. He
are less plentiful now, but
4 cloves finely chopped garlic
did, however, share his recipe:
still delicious. Their prepara-
lemon juice to taste
In Guadeloupe this can be
tion is time consuming, as
salt and pepper
served at all meals, including
11/2 lb. grated coconut
they need to be purged of
1/2 cup dried bread crumbs
breakfast.
21/2 cups milk
impurities for several weeks
1 tin sweetened condensed milk
before cooking. Lafcadio
As it is easier to find sea
1 lb. salt cod
1/2 cup sugar
Hearn writes:
crabs in the United States,
10 scallions
grated nutmeg
"It is customary here to
they can be substituted. The
1 hot pepper, chopped
keep live crabs in barrels
Guadeloupéan crabs are
thyme
Bring milk and sweetened
and fatten them,-feeding
about the size of a small
parsley, chopped
condensed milk to a boil, add
them with maize, mangoes,
hand. Cook crabs in boiling
juice of 2 limes
sugar and coconut, and mix
and above all, green peppers.
water with parsley, thyme,
6 cloves garlic, chopped
well. Remove from heat and
Nobody likes to cook crab as
hot pepper, cloves, and bay
1 onion, chopped
leave to cool. Pass through
soon as caught; for they may
leaf. It should take about 10-
1/4 cup oil
cheesecloth and squeeze out
have been eating manchineel
15 minutes. Leave them to
as much juice as possible
apples (poisonous fruit) at
cool in their cooking liquid.
Place salt cod on a grill or
from grated coconut. Freeze
the river-mouths."
Crack shells (but try to keep
close to broiler and let it get
mixture.
backs whole, as they will be
black. Then soak it in cold
CRAB FARCIE
used later) and remove meat
water and let it swell for 30
CRABS
12 crabs
from crabs and their claws.
minutes or so. Remove skin
The land crabs of Guade-
parsley
Soak bread in some of
and bones. Combine flesh
loupe have been a favored
thyme
crabs' cooking liquid, and
with chopped herbs, garlic,
delicacy for centuries. Père
hot pepper
process in food processor.
and onion. Add lime juice
Labat, a French Dominican
3 cloves
Fry chopped garlic in oil
and let sit for another 30
priest who arrived in 1693,
1 bay leaf
until soft. Add crab meat,
minutes. Add oil at the last
praised them as the best part
1/2 loaf stale French bread (baguette)
then scallions, chopped pars-
minute.-M.O.
graphs of Guadeloupe women wearing
By the time US writer Lafcadio
placed across her knees, then, taking a
boubous in the marketplace.
Hearn visited the French West Indies in
camel's-hair brush, she begins to fill in
The madras turbans, however, are a
the late 1880s, madras was enough a
the spaces between the bands with a
legacy of the Indians who came to work
local fashion for him to include a won-
sulfur-yellow paint It requires a sure
the sugar fields of Guadeloupe after
derful description of a calendeuse, or
eye, very steady fingers, and long expe-
slavery was abolished in 1848. Many of
woman who makes the turban and col-
rience to do this well...."
them came from Pondicherry, just south
ors it.
Unfortunately, that practice has
of Madras on the eastern coast of India.
"When purchased the Madras is
completely disappeared. Today, only the
After their arrival, the madras patterns
simply a great oblong handkerchief,
Cuisinières wear the turbans, which
and colors were imitated in Guadeloupe,
having a pale green or pale pink
identify them as members of the
although whether the custom of wear-
ground, and checkered or plaided by
Cuistot Mutuel.
ing a turban, and the turban's particular
intersecting bands of dark blue, purple,
The religious significance of the fes-
shape, is Indian or African in origin is
crimson, or maroon. The calendeuse
tival was brought out by a mass in
unclear.
lays the Madras upon a broad board
honor of St. Laurent in the cavernous
74
JULY 1990
Cathedral of St. Pierre and St. Paul in
cliff overlooking the Car-
downtown Pointe-à-Pitre. The steps
ibbean Sea. Prudence
leading to the altar were carpeted with
was still wearing her
the baskets and platters of food, the
madras turban and gold
Cuisinières filling the pews with bright
jewelry, although the
splashes of color. The food was blessed,
flounced skirt and white
and many references made to the nur-
petticoats had given way
turing spirit of love and the unselfish
to a cool, dark blue robe,
desire to give pleasure that must
a perfect backdrop for
accompany good cooking.
her magnificent chains.
Afterwards came dancing to the
She had been up since 4
throbbing beat of the beguine-and
a.m. preparing for the
endless feasting. Our appetites had
Fête des Cuisinières but
been heightened through hours of star-
showed no signs of fa-
ing longingly at the platters. Earlier, I
tigue. She was warm and
had succumbed to temptation and was
gracious as she spoke of
caught pilfering a few pastry turnovers
Guadeloupe's creole food
with a delicious salted fish stuffing.
with great pride.
Our lunch began with a chiquetaille
She described some
de morue (salt cod salad), spicy flakes of
Guadeloupéan special-
grilled salt cod fragrant with thyme,
ties-the bebele, a rich,
chives, and lemony vinaigrette. Then, a
spicy stew of green
matete de crabes, the sweet gray-blue
bananas, beans, dombrés
land crabs of Guadeloupe, cooked with
(dumplings), tripe, and
rice that was swollen with their concen-
pickled pigs' tails from
trated essence. I picked each crab
the island of Marie-
apart, determined to extract every
Galante. Apparently the
speck of flesh from the spindly legs and
dumplings evolved from
suck up any remaining juice.
the knefle of the Dutch
One Cuisinière told me that this dish,
Jews who settled there
which resembles paella, is a vestige of
in the 17th century, after
MUTUAL SUPPORT: Members of Cuistot Mutuel help each other,
the Spanish influence; another traced it
fleeing Brazil.
with small things like turbans and larger issues such as
to a West African dish made from land
Calalou soup is an-
setting up a restaurant of one's own.
crabs. Both said this is a dish for special
other specialty, made
occasions: It is traditionally served on
from the spinach-like leaves of the
labor that goes into this dish: The crabs,
Good Friday.
dasheen plant, pickled pigs' tails, and the
which are quite small, have to be shelled,
The meal ended with a colombo-a
savory land crabs. The soup is thick and
and the meat picked clean. She will sit
mild chicken curry, pale green in color,
full of the best local ingredients. She
down before a vat of freshly boiled and
its spices releasing a tantalizing aroma of
serves it with the traditional accom-
cooled crabs and pick away, leaving the
onions and turmeric.
paniment, the chiquetaille de morue,
telephone unanswered and all other
That night, in search of more Gua-
which she feels intensifies the flavors.
business on hold, until there is not a spot
deloupéan cuisine, I went to Chez Pru-
By this point I was ravenous once
of meat left on the shells, or a sliver of
dence, a small restaurant perched on a
again. I proceeded to regale myself with
shell mixed in with the meat. In her
more crab. This time it was crab farcie-
mind it is that love and attention to detail
two hollowed crab shells with a mound of
that makes true cooking.
gratinéed stuffing, a tasty blend of sweet
I then tried the grilled red snapper,
crab meat and fragrant spices.
the dish she had prepared for the festi-
Prudence described the painstaking
val. The fish was simply prepared, per-
fectly grilled, the flesh coming gently
off the bone, the skin charred, and the
CUBA
fins and tail a delicious crisp. A spicy
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©1990 V57 ADVERTISEMENT
WORLD
MONITOR
PREVIEW
Coming up in future issues of
WORLD MONITOR:
THE MAN WHO HOLDS BACK THE
DESERT. Allan Savory learned on
the grasslands of Africa how the
hoofs of animals could help rather
than hurt the land. Now based in
the US, he uses his specific meth-
ods and his larger environmental
concepts to rescue productive
acres in many countries.
By Sam Bingham
SUN AND SEA, TOO: Windsurfing, swimming, or simply enjoying a shaded chair by the sea
provides a respite from the feasts cooked up by the women chefs of Guadeloupe.
MIDEAST STRATEGY. Fresh from the
stunning events in Eastern Eu-
vinaigrette, made with hot peppers
tions from this island of proud women
rope and South Africa, the BBC's
and graines of bois d'Inde, a fragrant
cooks who have risen from the small,
television news editor goes to the
local peppercorn, was poured on top,
dark kitchens of the great plantation
Gulf and finds some urgent mat-
adding just enough spice to let the fla-
houses to their own establishments,
ters not to be overlooked while
vor of the fish come through. I soaked
where they continue to transform the
most eyes are elsewhere.
up the remaining sauce with the
local bounty into delicious meals, se-
By John Simpson
accompanying starchy boiled yams.
cure in their acknowledged positions as
These were memorable taste sensa-
professionals.
WM
TEMPLETON'S TENETS II. The global
investing wizard is back with more
rock-bottom advice on how to keep
Places to Stay, Places to Eat
an even keel as world stock mar-
kets bounce and flutter.
All tourists on Guadeloupe are invit-
and private rooms in modest homes.
ed to the Fête des Cuisinières banquet,
Information available from the Tourist
By Sir John Templeton
which is held in the Lycée Amédée Fen-
Office.
garol at the corner of Rue Schoelcher and
GETTING AHEAD OF HISTORY. Heard
Rue Barbès in Pointe-à-Pitre. Tickets can
Toubana
the pundits say events in the Soviet
be obtained from the Tourist Office, tele-
Sainte Anne
bloc caught even the experts by
phone (590) 82-09-30, or from your hotel.
Telephone: (590) 88-25-78
surprise? Well, they're wrong, say
This year the fete is scheduled for
Small hotel, perched on a cliff above
the world's leading proponents of
Aug. 11. The cooks usually begin gather-
La Caravelle, with bungalows. Approx.
thinking ahead. Through some fas-
ing in the shady square behind the
$104-$123 for a double.
cinating detective work, the authors
Cathedral of St. Pierre and St. Paul at
of "Future Shock" uncover some
9:30 a.m. The mass itself begins at 10,
Restaurants
followed by a parade through the
Chez Prudence
analysts who painted the correct
streets, and several hours of feasting
Anse Bertrand
scenario well before the drama of
and dancing at the Lycée.
Telephone: (590) 22-11-17
Gorbachev and the Berlin wall
Overlooks the ocean, traditional
unfolded. They also look at other
Hotels
Creole cooking. Bungalows for rent.
forecasters who anticipated history
Auberge de la Vieille Tour
earlier in this century.
Gosier
La Langouste
By Alvin and Heidi Toffler
Telephone: (590) 84-23-23
Anse à la Gourde
Built in an old sugar mill, this is one
Pointe des Châteaux
of the oldest hotels in Guadeloupe. It was
Telephone: (590) 84-40-61
renovated after Hurricane Hugo hit the
On the beach, specializes in grilled
PLUS
islands. Approx. $116-$142 for a double.
lobster.
Gites de France
La Canne à Sucre
Marlene Nadle on Eastern Europe
Office de Tourisme
Pointe-à-Pitre
-as a travel destination
5 Square de la Banque
Telephone: (590) 82-10-19
Alan Lightman on the romance going
Pointe-à-Pitre, 97110
A traditional Creole home, nouvelle
out of science
Telephone: (590) 82-09-30
Creole cooking, i.e., nouvelle cuisine
WM Gallery: Australia's amazing
Lists comfortable villas, apartments,
using local produce.-M.O.
aboriginal art
WORLD MONITOR
77
WORLD
MONITOR
" touching you in a way newscasts seldom do."
L.A. TIMES
"...a show with substance and soul..."
BOSTON GLOBE
" sheer integrity. "
NEW YORK TIMES
" meaty content, sober style of a less frantic era."
TIME MAGAZINE
WORLD MONITOR.
WE BEGIN WHERE THE NEWS LEAVES OFF.
A Television Presentation of The Christian Science Monitor™
WEEKNIGHTS AT 7:30 PM EASTERN,
10:00 PM PACIFIC, EXCLUSIVELY ON
THE
Discovery
THE DISCOVERY CHANNEL.
Check local listings for other areas.
CHANNEL
©
1989 The Discovery Channel
FOR A
BETTER
WORLD
Destiny
ORLD MONITOR: THE CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONI-
continue to labor and wait." As a religious leader, Mrs. Eddy
W
TOR MONTHLY is a beneficiary of the pioneering
fulfilled her individual destiny by unstintingly nurturing the
journalistic spirit of Mary Baker Eddy, who
new expression of Christianity she had discovered.
established the Monitor in 1908 as an interna-
So what of our own "noble" destinies? What can one say
tional daily newspaper. Her basic mandate for the Monitor
about them in general? In looking back at Lecomte du Noüy
was, in keeping with the Christian Science religion she
a generation later, I find that he was asking us to extend our
founded, to "injure no man, but to bless all mankind."
horizons, to think of the goal one's entire life could be serv-
Each month this space provides a commentary related to
ing. Thinking of the tinkering going on with the world's mili-
that mandate.
tary at the start of the Cold War years, he wrote: "Can we
not find, amongst those whose voice is heard, a few men
For college graduates seeking their first serious employ-
capable of looking beyond the term of their activity. and anx-
ment this summer, long-term goals may not be the first
ious to shape the future by preparing clear-sighted coming
thought that comes to mind. Starting pay, vacation policy,
generations, imbued with self-respect and free from the su-
other benefits, yes; and perhaps some notion of what one's
perstitions which impede the flight of integral progress?"
expectations should be three to five years down the road.
The job one chooses depends in part on what kind of prep-
Down the road, yes. But what road? The road to where?
aration one has had, on one's temperamental inclinations, and
Is the road one we choose for
of course on what is available at
ourselves?
the time. Yet, if one "buys into" the
The nature of an individual's
concept that humanity's moral and
destiny is, by one definition, not
spiritual development are what life
entirely decided by oneself. Des-
is ultimately about, then every job,
tiny usually implies a final end
every decision made, should con-
that we believe is set either by
tain at least an element of consid-
divine will, or fate, or universal
eration as to how it contributes to
laws that we did not make our-
an unselfish end, an end that will
selves. We can best fulfill our-
move oneself and humanity in a
selves in serving this destiny.
positive direction.
But what can we know about in-
When men and women are
dividual destiny?
young, they may be egotists on
Photo © John P. Kelly/Image Bank
During one of my first years
the surface. Scratch the surface,
Photo © Al Satterwhite/Image Bank
in college, I read a book new at that time, "Human Destiny,"
and the young egotists are apt to be cynical about the impor-
by a French scientist, Pierre Lecomte du Noüy. The author
tance of their life to humanity. Yet much of the usefulness one
argued that the physical evolution of man was largely com-
can have two or three decades out depends on the prepara-
plete, but that a further stage of moral and spiritual evolu-
tion one continues to make even in those first few job choices.
tion awaited him.
That usefulness, in terms of contributing to humanity's
Whether one agreed with the entire thesis of the book or
total development, may extend long beyond one's own
not, there was a convincing argument that moral and spiritu-
career, too. Wrote Lecomte du Noüy: "We cannot but be
al development were part of a divine plan for the universe.
struck by the disproportion between the duration of a man's
They were not an incidental "add-on" conjured up by civi-
life and the duration of his influence on future generations.
lized society. They were, in fact, an integral part of human
Every one of us leaves a trail either modest or brilliant, and
destiny. It remained for each individual to choose whether or
this conviction should make itself felt in all the acts of our
not to join in to fulfill this plan.
lives Every man can, if he wishes, leave a more or less bril-
The Discoverer of Christian Science, Mary Baker Eddy,
liant trace behind him.
"
wrote at the end of a short book ("No and Yes") answering
If the '80s were in fact a "me" generation more than some
questions about Christian Science: "Man has a noble destiny;
others, the '90s have arrived, folks. Let's see if our choices
and the full-orbed significance of this destiny has dawned on
help fulfill not only our own but humanity's destiny.
the sick-bound and sin-enslaved. For the unfolding of this
-Richard A. Nenneman
upward tendency to health, greatness, and goodness, I shall
Contributing Editor
WORLD MONITOR
79
AT LARGE
By Melvin Maddocks
Reinventing Men
T
HE PROPER STUDY OF MANKIND
Mexican War? But no matter. Man,
is not just a modern phenomenon.
is man," wrote Alexander Pope
men's studies have rather proudly dis-
A pioneer of men's studies, Harry
in his "Essay on Man," thus
covered, is the weaker sex. More Jimmy
Brod, writes: "Men's history lays deci-
qualifying as the father of
Stewart than John Wayne, he is shy and
sive emphasis on dispelling the com-
men's studies, the latest novelty among
vulnerable, burned out by competition
monly held belief that the contempo-
the social sciences.
with the other boys, confused by wom-
rary period is uniquely tumultuous and
About 200 American colleges offer
en's insistence on intimacy. What a ter-
troubling for beleaguered male egos."
classes with descriptions like "The
rifying idea that is!-enough to make a
There was a "crisis of masculinity" in
Psychology of Men" or "Sociology of the
chap run for the nearest locker room.
the United States in the 1890s and a
Male Experience." There is a Men's
Nevertheless, men's studies are at
"gender crisis" in early 18th-century
Studies Association. There is a Men's
pains to avoid the Adam game-blaming
England, and so on.
Studies Review. Last year the first
The male, it seems, is and always has
annual Men's Studies Conference as-
been an international case of self-
sembled, providing the physical pres-
'I love myself'-
destruction. Horror stories can be told
ence without which no new academic
from the Eskimos to the Japanese, not
tribe can be quite positive it exists.
the words that pass
excluding the Islamic man. And what
Why is "male liberation"- term
about those Arunta males in Australia
first applied 20 years ago-experienc-
these days as the
who come of age by lying down on
ing a moderate revival, on campus and
off? To casual observers (men included)
equivalent of
green boughs over an open fire and hav-
ing their heads bitten by other males?
men would hardly appear to be a fragile
'I am saved.'
Through contemplating all this, pref-
special-interest group, desperate for a
erably in "sensitizing" groups, men's
support system. More accurately they
studies scholars assume they are in-
might be characterized as the entitled
venting a New Man, a sweet, rational
gender that runs the world, and always
men's grief on women-though a reader
creature who can at last say, "I love my-
has. Yet in certain men's studies texts
may grow just a bit suspicious when
self"-the words that pass these days
the underdog language of an oppressed
those baritone voices insist they are pur-
as the equivalent of "I am saved." It
minority is used to describe in all seri-
suing their investigations for the equal
seems ironic that men in groups should
ousness the alleged misfortune of being
benefit of women. Dad-second only to
be trying to reform men in groups-the
born a white, middle-class male. "Bur-
Eve on men's traditional blame list-is
tribal rap session interrupting the tribal
den" is the word one writer employs to
still fair game. The poet Robert Bly,
war dance to sell the old warriors on a
sum up the curse of masculinity.
organizing seminars of male self-scruti-
change in "attitude" and "life style."
From a less sympathetic point of
ny, seems to be pointing toward an ideal
Whatever became of change of
view, men's studies could be defined as a
the opposite of Dear Old Dad-stern,
heart?-the profound, lonely, silent
monopoly laying an unnecessary claim
aloof, incapable of expressing affection.
shaking of a man's (or woman's) soul to
to equal time. As a woman remarked on
"Mythopoetic man" Bly and his col-
its very center. The question may be
being introduced to men's studies,
leagues call the enlightened and caring
embarrassing at a time when one has to
"Hasn't all history been about men?"
Dear New Dad-a stereotype of hugs
join a group even to diet. Yet if men's
The authors of men's studies respond
and honest tears, almost as off-putting, it
studies are to be more than a pleasantly
with reasoned if not entirely convincing
must be admitted, as Dear Old Dad.
chummy episode of self-dramatization,
counterarguments.
At their emotive worst, men's studies
the New Boys club should remind
A professor, leafing through the
demand plenty of reading between the
themselves that Prometheus bound to
indexes of American history textbooks,
whines. Nor are they a lot better at liter-
his rock and Jacob wrestling with his
was overwhelmed by the references
ary criticism, analyzing masterpieces SO
angel-and Herman Melville strug-
under W as in women. "But look under
narrowly that the subtleties of Captain
gling with Captain Ahab-did not ar-
M," he reported in sorrow, "and you
Ahab and Huck Finn get reduced to a
rive at their terrible and glorious
find nothing between Manifest Destiny
couple of Joes muddled about their man-
visions of what a man can be through
and Mexican War."
hood. Men's studies are at their best
sessions of group therapy.
WM
Who, one might ask, was propound-
when they stick to history, providing
ing Manifest Destiny and fighting the
documentation that the perplexed male
WM columnist Melvin Maddocks writes each month.
80
JULY 1990
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THE POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
ON THE UNITED STATES
DRAFT
REPORT TO CONGRESS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
United States Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Policy, Planning, and Evaluation
Office of Research and Development
June 1989
THE POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
ON THE UNITED STATES
DRAFT
REPORT TO CONGRESS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Editors: Joel B. Smith and Dennis A. Tirpak
United States Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Policy, Planning, and Evaluation
Office of Research and Development
June 1989
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Scientific theory suggests that the addition of
would be more difficult and more costly to adapt to.
greenhouse gases to the atmosphere will alter global
Furthermore, continued emissions of greenhouse
climate, increasing temperatures and changing rain-
gases could raise atmospheric concentrations be-
fall and other weather patterns. In 1979 the Na-
yond doubled CO₂ causing greater and more rapid
tional Academy of Sciences estimated that a dou-
climate changes, and larger effects.
bling of carbon dioxide concentrations over prein-
dustrial levels would cause global temperatures to
To explore the implications of climate change
rise 1.5 to 4.5°C. In 1985, the World Meteorological
and ways to control it, Congress asked the U.S. En-
Organization (WMO), the United Nations Environ-
vironmental Protection Agency (EPA) to undertake
ment Programme (UNEP), and the International
two studies on the greenhouse effect: the first to ad-
Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU) reaffirmed these
dress, "The potential health and environmental ef-
estimates. Such a climate change could have signifi-
fects of climate change including, but not be limited
cant implications for man and the environment.
to, the potential impacts on agricultural, forests,
Among other effects, it could raise sea level, alter
wetlands, human health, rivers, lakes, estuaries as
patterns of water availability, and affect agriculture
well as societal impacts;" and the second to examine
and global ecosystems.
"policy options that if implemented would stabilize
current levels of greenhouse gas concentrations."
Although there is consensus that increased
The second study, "Policy Options for Stabilizing
greenhouse gas concentrations will change global
Global Climate", is a companion report to this docu-
climate, the rate and magnitude of change is not
ment.
certain (see box on "Climate Change"). Uncertainties
about climate feedbacks from clouds, vegetation, and
EPA responded to this request by first holding
other factors make it difficult to predict the exact
workshops with atmospheric scientists to discuss
amount of warming that a given level of greenhouse
the use of global climate change models for impact
gases such as a doubling of carbon dioxide (CO₂) con-
analyses and then meeting with ecologists, hydrolo-
centrations would cause. How quickly climate may
gists, geographers, and forestry and agricultural
change is also not known, because scientists are un-
specialists to identify topics for this study. A major
certain both about how rapidly heat will be taken up
purpose was to bridge the gap in our ability to relate
by the oceans and about some climate feedback
a rise in average annual surface temperatures to
processes. Generally, scientists assume that current
regional climate changes. Based on these and other
trends in emissions will continue and that climate
discussions, EPA decided to use common scenarios of
will change gradually over the next century, al-
climate change to analyze the sensitivities of coastal
though at a much faster pace than historically. At
resources, water resources, agriculture, forests, bio-
this rate, the full effect of the equivalent doubling of
diversity, health, air pollution, and electricity de-
CO2 concentrations probably would not be experi-
mand to climate change on regional and national
enced until after 2050. It is possible, however, that
scales (see Figure 1). These systems were chosen for
sudden changes in ocean circulation could cause
analysis because they are sensitive to climate and
abrupt changes in global climate. Indeed, if climate
significantly affect our quality of life. EPA decided to
changed more rapidly than estimated, the effects
conduct regional analyses for the Southeast, the
1
Effects of Climate Change
Great Plains, California, and the Great Lakes, be-
dinal increases in temperature, but they disagree
cause of their climatological, ecological, hydrologi-
and are less reliable concerning other areas, such as
cal, and economic diversity. Leading academic and
regional changes in rainfall and soil moisture. The
government scientists in the relevant fields used
GCM data were compared to historic meteorologic
published models to estimate the impacts on both the
data. In addition, the decade of the 1930s was used
regional and national scales. As a common base for
as an analog for global warming.
conducting these analyses, they used the scenarios
specified by EPA.
In Figure 2, the temperature changes from the
three GCMs used to create scenarios are shown for
After consulting with scientific experts, EPA
both the United States and four regions of the United
developed scenarios for use in effects analysis. Re-
States for a doubling of carbon dioxide levels. The
gional data from atmospheric models known as
GCMs agree on the direction of temperature changes,
General Circulation Models (GCMs) were used as a
but differ in the magnitude. Estimates of precipita-
basis for climate change scenarios (see box on "Sce-
tion changes are shown in Figure 3. The GCMs agree
narios and Methodology"). The GCMs are large
that annual rainfall would increase across the coun-
models of the ocean-atmosphere system that simu-
try, but disagree about the direction of regional and
late the fundamental physical relationships in the
seasonal changes. All models show increased evapo-
system. GCMs provide the best scientific estimates
ration.
of the impacts of increased greenhouse gas concen-
trations on climate. Yet, they use relatively simple
The GCM results should not be considered as
models of oceans and clouds, both of which will be
predictions, but as plausible scenarios of future cli-
very critical in influencing climate change. The
mate change. Because the regional estimates of
GCMs generally agree concerning global and latitu-
climate change by GCMs vary considerably, the
CLIMATE CHANGE
A panel of experts convened by the National
to increased evaporation and, therefore, to greater
Academy of Scientists (National Research Council,
global mean precipitation. Despite this increase in
1987) recently gave the following estimates of scien-
global average precipitation, some individual re-
tific confidence in predictions of the climate re-
gions might well experience decreases in rainfall."
sponse to increased greenhouse gas concentrations.
This table is a summary of their conclusions only
Reduction of Sea Ice (very probable). This will be
about "the possible climate responses to increased
due to melting as the climate warms.
greenhouse gases." The full report should be con-
sulted for the details:
Polar Winter Surface Warming (very probable). Due
to the sea ice reduction, polar surface air may warm
Large Stratospheric Cooling (virtually certain). The
by as much as 3 times the global average.
combination of increased cooling by additional CO2
and other trace gases, and reduced heating by re-
Summer Continental Dryness/Warming (likely in
duced ozone "will lead to a major lowering of tem-
the long term). Found in several, but not all, studies,
peratures in the upper stratosphere."
it is mainly caused by earlier termination of winter
storms. "Of course, these simulations of long-term
Global-Mean Surface Warming (very probable). For
equilibrium conditions may not ffer a reliable guide
an equivalent doubling of CO2, "the long-term global-
to trends over the next few decades of changing at-
mean surface warming is expected to be in the range
mospheric composition and changing climate."
1.5 to 4.5°C."
Rise in Global Mean Sea Level (probable). This will
Global-Mean Precipitation Increase (very probable).
be due to thermal expansion of sea water and melt-
"Increased heating of the [earth's] surface will lead
ing or calving of land ice.
2
Executive Summary
FIGURE 1. ELEMENTS OF THE EFFECTS REPORT
Regional
Case
Studies
Core
Analytic
Southeast
Outputs
Areas
Great Lakes
Great Plains
Report to
Water Resources
California
Congress
Agriculture
Climate
Forests
Research
Change
Sea Level Rise
National
Plan
Scenarios
Biodiversity
Studies
Health
Models/
Infrastructure
Agriculture
Data Bases
Air Pollution
Forests
Electricity Demand
Sea Level Rise
Policy
Health
Electricity Demand
scenarios provide a range of possible changes in cli-
With some exceptions, we did not generally
mate for use in identifying the relative sensitivities
examine responses and adaptations to effects of
of systems to higher temperatures and sea level rise.
climate change. The report was intended to examine
There are two major limitations in the GCM scenar-
sensitivities and potential vulnerabilities of current
ios. First, the scenarios assume that climate vari-
systems to climate change. Many other changes will
ability does not change from recent decades. Second,
also take place in the world at the same time that
the scenarios did not change the frequency of events,
global climate is changing. We cannot anticipate
such as heat waves, storms, hurricanes, and droughts
how changing technology, scientific advances, urban
in various regions which would affect the results
growth, and changing demographics will affect the
presented in this report (see "Limitations" box).
world of the next century. These changes and many
Changes in variability as estimated by GCMs were
others may singularly, or in combination, exacerbate
examined for this report. We found that no firm
or ameliorate the impacts of global climate change on
conclusions can be drawn about how global warming
society.
could affect variability.
The results are also inherently limited by our
The methods used to estimate impacts (for
imaginations. Until a severe event occurs, such as
example, how forests might change) also have limi-
the drought of 1988, we fail to recognize the close
tations. We have no experience with the rapid
links between our society, the environment, and
warming of 1.5 to 4.5°C projected to occur during the
climate. For example, in this report we did not ana-
next century. Many of the effects are estimated
lyze the reductions in barge shipments on the Missis-
based on knowledge of the response of systems to
sippi River due to lower river levels, the increases in
known climate conditions. We cannot be certain that
forest fires due to dry conditions, or the impacts of
a forest would be able to migrate, how higher atmos-
disappearing prairie potholes on ducks; all these
pheric concentrations of CO₂ would affect vegeta-
impacts were made vivid during the past year. The
tion, whether fish would find new habitats, how
drought reminded us of our vulnerability as a nation,
agricultural pests would proliferate, or how impacts
but it cannot be viewed as a prediction of things to
would combine to create or reduce stress.
come.
3
Effects of Climate Change
FIGURE 2. TEMPERATURE SCENARIOS
GCM Estimated Change in Temperature from 1xCO2 to 2xCO2
8
8
8
ANNUAL
WINTER
SUMMER
TEMPERATURE (°C)
6
6
6
4
4
4
2
2
2
0
0
0
Great
Southeast
Great
California
United
Great
Southeast
Great
California
United
Great
Southeast
Great
California
United
Lakes
Plains
States
Lakes
Plains
States
Lakes
Plains
States
GISS
GFDL
OSU
* Lower 48 States
FIGURE 3. PRECIPITATION SCENARIOS
GCM Estimated Change in Precipitation from 1xCO2 to 2xCO2
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.8
ANNUAL
0.8
WINTER
0.8
SUMMER
MILLIMETERS/DAY
0.6
0.6
0.6
No
0.4
0.4
Change
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.4
-0.4
-0.4
-0.6
-0.6
-0.6
Great
Southeast
Great
California
United
Great
Southeast
Great
California
United
Great
Southeast
Great
California
United
Lakes
Plains
States'
Lakes
Plains
States*
Lakes
Plains
States*
GISS
GFDL
OSU
* Lower 48 States
4
Executive Summary
MAJOR FINDINGS
relatively quickly, if we have enough financial re-
sources. We would expect that basic requirements
for food and water could be met in the United States
(as crops are shifted and water management systems
The findings collectively suggest a world that
are modified), and that developed areas with high
is different from the world that exists today. Global
economic value could be protected against sea level
climate change would have significant implications
rise (as bulkheads and levees are built). The total
for natural ecosystems; for where and how we farm;
cost of adapting to global climate change is beyond
for the availability of water to irrigate crops, produce
the scope of this report. It appears it could be expen-
power, and support shipping; for how we live in our
sive, but affordable, for a highly industrialized coun-
cities; for the wetlands that spawn our fish; for the
try like the United States to adapt managed systems
beaches we use for recreation; and for all levels of
in response to gradual global warming. If change
government and industry.
comes more quickly, adaptation by managed sys-
tems will be more difficult and expensive.
The rate of global warming may be the most
important factor affecting both natural and man-
In many cases, the results of our analysis
aged systems. The faster the warming, the harder it
appear to be consistent across scenarios, because
will be to adapt. The ability of natural ecosystems
(forests, wetlands, barrier islands, national parks) to
either increasing temperatures or higher sea levels
dominate the systems that were studied. For ex-
adapt to a rapidly warming climate is limited. Rates
ample, higher temperatures would cause earlier
of natural migration and adaptation could be much
snowmelt, a northward migration of forests, and a
slower than climate change. Populations of many
northward shift in crops, and higher sea levels could
species and inhabited ranges could decrease, and
many may face extinction. The ultimate effects could
inundate wetlands and low-lying areas. In other
last for centuries and would be virtually irreversible.
cases, however, only a range of values can be pre-
Whether human intervention could mitigate these
sented because uncertainties in an important vari-
effects was not studied.
able, such as precipitation, make the direction of
change highly uncertain.
Managed systems may show more resilience.
For example, although sea level rise may put addi-
The main findings and policy implications of
tional stresses on coastal cities and although changes
this report are presented in national and regional
in temperature and rainfall patterns may require
chapters. They are summarized in the following
new strategies for managing water resources and
pages, but the reader is urged to explore the full
agriculture, we could adapt to changing climate
report to understand the complete context of these
results.
5
Effects of Climate Change
SCENARIOS AND METHODOLOGY
A number of scenarios were specified by
Other approaches were used to supplement
EPA to help identify the sensitivities of natural and
the GCMs. Weather observations from the 1930s
manmade systems to climate change. Scenarios
were used as an analog for global warming, al-
were used as inputs with models of natural re-
though greenhouse warming may raise tempera-
sources. Most researchers used GCM-based scenar-
tures much higher than they were in that decade. In
ios. Some used analog scenarios or expert judg-
some cases, paleoclimatic warmings were studied to
ment.
provide evidence of how species respond to climate
change. In addition, the use of scenarios was sup-
Regional output from three General Circu-
plemented by expert judgment (gathered though
lation Models (GCMs) were used: the Goddard Insti-
literature reviews and workshops with scientific
tute for Space Studies (GISS); the Geophysical Fluid
experts) to provide the best opinions on potential ef-
Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL); and Oregon State
fects.
University (OSU). All of these models estimate
climate change caused by a doubling of CO2 concen-
Since we cannot predict the exact nature of
trations in the atmosphere. The regional estimates
climate change, we cannot predict impacts. All of
of doubled CO2 changes were combined with 1951-80
these analytic approaches help us determine the po-
climate observations to create doubled CO2 scenar-
tential sensitivities and vulnerabilities of systems
ios. This GISS model has been used to estimate how
to climate change.
climate may change between now and the middle of
the next century. This is called a transient run, the
outputs of which were used to create a transient
scenario.
LIMITATIONS
Climate Scenarios
Linkages Many indirect effects (e.g., effect of
increased irrigation demand on water re-
sources) were not quantitatively analyzed.
Differences Between Scenarios. The
GCM and other scenarios do not
Limited Effects Analyses Many impacts and
provide consistent estimates of cli-
regions in the United States were not ana-
mate change.
lyzed. In addition, this report did not analyze
the impacts of climate change on other coun-
Variability. The scenarios assume
tries. Compared to the United States, it may
no change in variability.
be much more difficult for poorer and less
mobile societies to respond to climate change.
Major Climate Events. The scenar-
It is not unreasonable to assume that climate
assume no changes in hurricanes,
change could have im portant geopolitical con-
droughts, etc.
sequences, which could have subsequent im-
pacts on the United States.
Societal Changes Most studies did not con-
Effects Models These models were calibrated
sider changes in population, technology and
for historic climate conditions and may not
other areas. There was only limited consid-
accurately estimate future response to cli-
eration of responses and adaptation meas-
mate change.
ures, which could mitigate some of the results
presented here.
6
Executive Summary
NATIONAL FINDINGS
site-specific models. These regions were chosen to
represent a diversity of forest types and uses. Fi-
nally, the ability of trees to migrate to new habitats
was analyzed using shifts in climate zones from
Natural Systems
GCMs and historic rates of tree migration. This
study focused on several species that are widely
The location and composition of various plants
dispersed across the northeastern United States.
and animals in the natural environment depend, to
The direct effects of CO2, which could change water-
a great extent, on climate. Trees grow in certain
use efficiency, pest interactions, and the competitive
areas and fish exist in streams and lakes because the
balance among plants, were not modeled; nor were
local climate and other conditions are conducive to
reforestation or the suitability of soils and sunlight
reproduction and growth. A major focus of this report
considered. It is not clear how these results would
was to identify what may happen to plants and
have been affected, had such factors been included.
animals, as a result of climate change - whether
they would survive in their current locations or be
able to migrate to new habitats, and how soon these
The Range of Trees May Be Reduced
ecosystems could be affected.
Figure 4 shows the potential shifts in forest
Natural Systems May Be Unable to Adapt Quickly
ranges in response to climate change. The scenarios
to a Rapid Warming
assume that climate change could move the southern
boundary northward by 600-700 km (approximately
If current trends continue, climate may change
400 miles), while the northern boundary would only
too quickly for many natural systems to adapt. In the
move as fast as the rate of migration of forests.
past, plants and animals adapted to historic climate
Assuming a migration rate of 100 km (60 miles) per
changes over many centuries. For example, since the
century or double the known historic rate, the inhab-
last ice age 18,000 years ago, oak trees migrated
ited ranges of forests could be significantly reduced
northward from the southeastern United States as
because the southern boundary may advance more
the ice sheet receded. Temperatures warmed about
quickly than the northern boundary. Even if climate
5°C (9°F) over thousands of years, but they rose
stabilizes, it could take centuries for migration to
slowly enough for forests to migrate at the same rate
reverse this effect. If climate continues to warm, mi-
as climate change. In the future, the greenhouse
gration would continue to lag behind shifts in cli-
effect may lead to similar changes in the magnitude
mate zones. If elevated CO₂ concentrations increase
of warming, but the changes may take place within
the water-use efficiency of tree species and pest
a century. Climate zones may shift hundreds of
infestations do not worsen, the declines of the south-
miles northward, and animals and especially plants
ern ranges could be partly alleviated. Reforestation
may have difficulty migrating north ward that quickly.
could help speed the migration of forests into new
areas.
Forests
Changes in Forest Composition Are Likely
Forests occupy one-third of the land area of the
United States. Temperature and precipitation ranges
Climate change may significantly alter forest
are among the determinants of forest distributions.
composition and reduce the land area of healthy
Forests are also sensitive to soils, light intensity, air
forests. Higher temperatures may lead to drier soils
pollution, pests and pathogens, disturbances such as
in many parts of the country. Trees that need wetter
fires and wind, and management practices.
soils may die, and their seedlings could have diffi-
culty surviving these conditions. A study of forests in
Several approaches were used to examine
northern Mississippi and northern Georgia indi-
geographic shifts in forests. Potential ranges of
cated that seedlings currently in such areas would
forests were estimated for eastern North America
not grow because of high temperatures and dry soil
using temperature and precipitation correlations
conditions. In central Michigan, forests now domi-
from pollen data. Changes in composition and abun-
nated by sugar maple and oak may be replaced by
dance of particular forests were estimated for par-
grasslands, with some sparse oak trees surviving.
ticular sites in the Great Lakes and Southeast using
These analyses did not consider the introduction of
7
Effects of Climate Change
species from areas south of these regions. In north-
sugar maple could become more abundant. These
ern Minnesota, the mixed boreal and northern hard-
forests appear to be very sensitive to small changes
wood forest could become entirely northern hard-
in climate, because dieback starts to become notice-
woods. Some areas might experience a decline in
able after an approximate 1 to 1.5°C warming. Once
productivity, while others (currently saturated soils)
this process starts, major dieback may occur rapidly.
might have an increase. The process of changes in
The timing of a decline is sensitive to the rate of
species composition would most likely continue for
climate change, a warming slower than that as-
centuries.
sumed in the scenarios would delay the dieback.
Changes May Begin in 30 to 80 Years
Other Factors Will Influence Forest Health
Forest change may be visible in a few decades
The health of forests will not be determined by
from now. This would involve a faster rate of mortal-
climate change alone. The drier soils expected to
ity among mature trees and a decline in seedlings
accompany climate change could lead to more fre-
and growth of new species. The studies of forests in
the Southeast and Great Lakes indicate that these
quent fires, warmer climates may cause changes in
forest pests and pathogens, and changes in air pollu-
forests could begin to die back in 30 to 80 years.
tion levels could reduce the resilience of forests.
Figure 5 displays possible reductions in balsam fir
Continued depletion of stratospheric ozone would
trees in northern Minnesota and forests in Missis-
also further stress forests. None of these outcomes
sippi in response to two different scenarios of warm-
was considered by the forest studies in this report,
ing. At the same time in Minnesota, for example,
although they could speed forest declines.
FIGURE 4. SHIFTS IN RANGE OF HEMLOCK AND SUGAR MAPLE
UNDER ALTERNATIVE CLIMATE SCENARIOS
Hemlock
Present Range
Range After 2050: GISS
Range After 2050: GFDL
Sugar Maple
Present Range
Range After 2050: GISS
Range After 2050: GFDL
Scale 0 400Km
Potential Range
Inhabited Range
Source: Zabinski and Davis
8
Executive Summary
FIGURE 5. FOREST DECLINES DUE TO TEMPERATURE INCREASES
MISSISSIPPI FORESTS
MINNESOTA BALSAM FIR
8000
180
NO CLIMATE CHANGE
GISS A
160
NO CLIMATE CHANGE
GISS A*
140
6000
GISS B
WOODY BIOMASS (T/ha)
120
100
80
60
BASAL AREA (cm sq /100 m sq)
4000
40
2000
20
0
0
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
YEAR
YEAR
Sources: Urban and Shugart; Botkin et al.
*
Assumes constant exponentional growth in emissions
**Assumes constant arithmetic growth in emissions
Biodiversity
Francisco Bay. Additional information on potential
impacts on biodiversity was gathered from the pub-
Biological diversity can be defined as the vari-
lished literature.
ety of species in ecosystems, and the genetic variabil-
ity within each species and the variety of ecosystems
Extinction of Species Could Increase
around the world. Over 400 species of mammals, 460
reptiles, 660 freshwater fishes, and tens of thou-
Historic climate changes, such as the ice ages,
sands of invertebrate species can be found in this
have led to extinction of many species. More re-
country, in addition to some 22,000 plant species.
cently, man's activities, such as deforestation, have
About 650 species of birds reside in or pass through
greatly accelerated the rate of species extinction.
the United States annually. Biological diversity is
The faster rate of climate warming due to the green-
needed to provide food, medicine, shelter, and other
house effect, absent an active program to preserve
important products.
species, would most likely lead to an even greater
loss of species. The uncertainties surrounding the
This report examined the impacts of climate
rate of warming, the response of individual species,
change on specific plants and animals by using
and interspecies dynamics make it difficult to assess
climate change scenarios and models of particular
the probable impacts, although natural ecosystems
species or systems within a region. Analyses have
are likely to be destabilized in unpredictable ways.
been performed for impacts on finfish and shellfish
in the Apalachicola Bay in the Florida panhandle,
As with trees, other plants and animals may
fish in the Great Lakes, and marine species in San
have difficulty migrating at the same rate as a
9
Effects of Climate Change
rapidly changing climate, and many species may
Sea Level Rise
become extinct or may be reduced in population. The
presence of urban areas, agricultural lands, and
roads would restrict habitats and block many migra-
A rise in sea level is one of the most certain
tory pathways. These obstacles may make it harder
impacts of climate change. Higher global tempera-
for plants and wildlife to survive future climate
tures will most likely thermally expand the oceans
changes. On the other hand, some species may
and melt glaciers. Global sea level is currently rising
benefit from climate change due to increases in
at a rate of 12 cm (5 inches) per century, and along
habitat size or reduction in population of competi-
the U.S. coastline, relative sea level rise (which
tors. The extent to which society can mitigate nega-
includes land subsidence) averages 30 cm (1 foot) per
tive impacts through such efforts as habitat restora-
century. Published estimates of sea level rise due to
tion is not clear.
global warming generally range from 0.5 to 2.0
meters (1.5 to 7 feet) by 2100, although some esti-
Impacts on Fisheries Would Vary
mates are higher.
Fresh water fish populations may grow in some
The studies estimate the potential nationwide
areas and decline in others. Fish in such large water
loss of wetlands, and the cost of defending currently
bodies as the Great Lakes may grow faster and may
developed areas from a rising sea, for three scenarios
be able to migrate to new habitats. Increased amounts
(50, 100, and 200 cm) of sea level rise by the year
of plankton could provide more forage for fish.
2100. Wetland loss estimates were based on remote-
However, higher temperatures may lead to more
sensing data and topographic maps for a sample of
aquatic growth, such as algal blooms, and decreased
sites along the U.S. coast. The cost of holding back
mixing of lakes (longer stratification), which would
the sea was based on (1) the quantity of sand
deplete oxygen levels in shallow areas of the Great
necessary to elevate beaches and coastal barrier
Lakes such as Lake Erie and make them less habit-
islands as sea level rises; (2) rebuilding roads and
able for fish. Fish in small lakes and streams may be
elevating structures; and (3) constructing levees and
unable to escape temperatures beyond their toler-
bulkheads to protect developed lowlands along shel-
tered waters.
ances, or their habitats may simply disappear.
Warmer temperatures could also exceed the
Protecting Developed Areas May Be Expensive
thermal tolerance of many marine finfish and shell-
fish in some southern locations, although some marine
Given the high property values of developed
species could benefit. The full impacts on marine
coastlines in the United States, it is likely that
species are not known at this time. The loss of coastal
measures would be taken to hold back the sea along
wetlands could further reduce fish populations,
most developed shores. Preliminary estimates sug-
especially shellfish. And while increased salinity in
gest that the cumulative capital cost (including re-
estuaries could reduce the abundance of fresh water
sponse to current sea level rise) of protecting cur-
species, it could increase the presence of marine
rently developed areas would be $73 to 111 billion (in
species. Whether finfish and shellfish could migrate
1988 dollars) through 2100 for a 1-meter global rise
to new areas and the effectiveness of restocking were
(compared to $4 to 6 billion to protect developed
not studied.
areas from current trends in sea level rise). A 1-
meter sea level rise would lead to a cumulative
Effects on Migratory Birds Would Depend on
inundation of 7,000 square miles of dryland - an
Impacts on Habitats
area the size of Massachusetts (see Table 1). If the
oceans continue to rise at current rates, approxi-
Migratory birds are likely to experience mixed
mately 3,000 square miles of dryland would be lost.
effects from climate change, with some arctic-nest-
Most Coastal Wetlands Would Be Lost
ing herbivores benefiting, and continental nesters
and shorebirds suffering. Some winter habitats
could experience increased productivity. On the
Historically, wetlands have kept pace with a
other hand, the loss of wintering grounds resulting
slow rate of sea level rise. However, in the future, sea
from sea level rise and changing climate could harm
level will probably rise too fast for marshes and
many species as would the loss of inland prairie
swamps to keep pace. Although some wetlands can
potholes resulting from potentially increased mid-
survive by migrating inland, a study on coastal wet-
continental dryness.
lands estimated that for a 1-meter rise, 26 to 66% of
10
Executive Summary
TABLE 1. NATIONWIDE IMPACTS OF SEA LEVEL RISE
Sea Level Rise by 2100
Baseline*
50 cm
100 cm
200 cm
If Densely Developed Areas
Are Protected
Shore protection costs
($billions)
4-6
32-43
73-111
169-309
Dryland lost (mi2)
1,500-4,700
2,200-6,100
4,100-9,200
6,400-13,500
Wetlands lost (%)
9-25
20-45
29-69
33-80
If No Shores Are Protected
Dryland lost (mi2)
N.C.
3,300-7,300
5,100-10,300
8,200-15,400
Wetlands lost (%)
N.C.
17-43
26-66
29-76
If All Shores Are Protected
Wetlands lost (%)
N.C.
38-61
50-82
66-90
N.C. = Not Calculated
*Baseline assumes current global sea level rise trend of 12 cm per century. Given coastal subsidence
trends, this implies about a 1-foot rise in relative sea level along most of the U.S. coast.
Source: Assembled by Titus and Greene.
wetlands would be lost, even if wetland migration
approximately present levels if people do not erect
were not blocked. A majority of these losses would be
additional bulkheads and levees. In Louisiana, with
in the South (see Table 2). Efforts to protect coastal
40% of U.S. coastal wetlands, large areas of wetlands
development would increase wetland losses, because
are already being lost from relative sea level rise, and
bulkheads and levees would prevent new wetlands
most could be lost by 2030 if current trends continue.
from forming inland. If all shorelines are protected,
50 to 82% of wetlands would be lost. The different
Estuaries May Enlarge and Become More Saline
amounts of dryland lost for different regions and
scenarios are shown inFigure 6.
Although future riverflows into estuaries are
uncertain, a rise in sea level would increase the size
The loss of wetland area would have adverse
and salinity of estuaries and would increase the
ecological impacts, with the ability of ecosystems to
salinity of coastal aquifers. For example, sea level
survive a rising sea level depending greatly on how
rise may result in a more saline and enlarged Sacra-
shorelines are managed. For many fish and shellfish
mento-San Joaquin Delta, and Miami, New York,
species, the fraction of shorelines along which wet-
and other coastal communities would have to step-
lands can be found is more important than the total
up current efforts to combat salinity increases in
area of wetlands. This fraction could remain at
surface water and groundwater supplies.
11
Effects of Climate Change
TABLE 2. LOSS OF WETLANDS FROM A ONE-METER RISE IN SEA LEVEL
All
Current
Current
Dryland
Development
No
Wetlands
Protected
Protected
Protection
Region
Area (mi2)
(% Loss)
(% Loss)
(% Loss)
Northeast
600
16
10
2
Mid-Atlantic
746
70
46
38
South Atlantic
3,813
64
44
39
S/W Florida
1,869
44
8
7
Louisiana*
4,835
77
77
77
Other Gulf
1,218
85
76
75
West
64
56
gain**
gain**
USA
13,145
50-82
29-69
26-66
*Louisiana projections do not consider potential benefits of restoring flow of
sediment and freshwater.
**Potential gain in wetland acreage not shown because principal author suggested
that no confidence could be attributed to those estimates. West Coast sites
constituted less than 0.5% of wetlands in study sample.
Source: Adapted from Park et al.
FIGURE 6. DRYLAND LOSS BY 2100
3.0
A: DRYLAND LOSS BY 2100 WITHOUT SHORE PROTECTION
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
LOSS OF DRYLAND
(THOUSANDS OF SQ. MILES)
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Northeast
Mid-
South
South &
Louisiana
Other Gulf
West
Atlantic
Atlantic
West
Florida
3.0
2.8
B: DRYLAND LOSS BY 2100 WITH PROTECTION OF DEVELOPED AREAS
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
LOSS OF DRYLAND
(THOUSANDS OF SQ. MILES)
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Northeast
Mid-
South
South &
Louisiana
Other Gulf
West
Atlantic
Atlantic
West
Florida
Sea Level Rise
Baseline
50 cm
/
100 cm
200 cm
Scenario:
12
Executive Summary
Agriculture
Yields Could Be Reduced, Although the Combined
Effects of Climate and CO2 Would Depend on the
Severity of Climate Change
The temperate climate and rich soils in the
United States, especially in the Midwest, have helped
In most regions of the country, climate change
make this country the world's leading agricultural
alone could reduce dryland yields of corn, wheat, and
producer. Agriculture, a critical component of the
soybeans, with site-to-site losses ranging from negli-
U.S. economy, contributed 17.5% of the gross na-
gible amounts to 80%. These decreases would be
tional product in 1985, with farm assets totaling
primarily the result of higher temperatures, which
$771 billion.
would shorten a crop's life cycle. In very northern
areas, such as Minnesota, dryland yields of corn and
Crop production is sensitive to climate, soils,
soybeans could increase as warmer temperatures
management methods, and many other factors.
extend the frost-free growing season. The combined
During the Dust Bowl years of the 1930s, wheat and
corn yields dropped by up to 50%, and during the
effects of climate change and CO2 may result in net
increases in yields in some cases, especially in north-
drought of 1988, corn yields declined about 40%.
ern areas or in areas where rainfall is abundant. In
southern areas, however, where heat stress is al-
The agriculture analyses in this report exam-
ined potential impacts on crop yields and productiv-
ready a problem, and in areas where rainfall is
reduced, crop yields could decline.
ity from changes in climate and direct effects of CO2.
(Higher CO2 concentrations may increase plant
growth and water use efficiency.) The studies used
Productivity May Shift Northward
high estimates of the beneficial effects of CO2 on
Under all of the scenarios (with and without
crops. Changes in dryland and irrigated corn, wheat,
and soybean yields and in irrigation demand were
the direct effects of CO₂), the relative productivity of
estimated for the Southeast, Great Plains, and Great
northern areas for the crops studied was estimated
Lakes regions using widely validated crop growth
to rise in comparison with that of southern areas. In
models. Crop yield changes were estimated for
response to the shift in relative yields, grain crop
California using a simple agroclimatic index. The
acreage in Appalachia, the Southeast, and the south-
studies did not examine effects on yields of introduc-
ern Great Plains could decrease, and acreage in the
northern Great Lakes States, the northern Great
tion of crops, such as citrus into new areas; changes
Plains, and the Pacific North west could increase (see
in weed growth caused by higher CO2 concentra-
tions; or such new technologies as biotechnology.
Figure 7). A change in agriculture would affect not
Some of these changes could enhance the ability of
only the livelihood of farmers, but also agricultural
agriculture to adapt to global warming.
infrastructure and other support services. The sus-
tainability of crop production in northern areas was
The estimated yield changes from the crop
not studied. Changes in foreign demand for U.S.
modeling studies and runoff changes from the GCMs
crops, which would likely be altered as a result of
were used in a nationwide agricultural economic
global warming and could significantly alter the
model to estimate regional and national changes in
magnitude of the results, were not considered in this
crop production, land use, and demand for irrigation.
analysis.
The economic model did not consider the introduc-
tion of new crops, changes in government policies on
The National Supply of Agricultural Commodities
agriculture, change in demand for water for non-
May Be Sufficient to Meet Domestic Needs, But
agriculture uses, and global agriculture changes.
Exports May Be Reduced
Both à modeling study and a literature review were
used to estimate changes in plant-pest interactions.
Even under the more extreme climate change
An agricultural runoff and leaching model was used
scenarios, the production capacity of U.S. agricul-
to estimate potential changes in water quality in the
ture was estimated to be adequate to meet domestic
Great Plains. Some farm-level adjustments, includ-
needs. Only small to moderate economic losses were
ing the effects of changed planting dates and use of
estimated when climate change scenarios were mod-
different varieties were investigated in various stud-
eled without the beneficial effects of CO2 on crop
ies and the potential national implications on live-
yields. When the combined effects of climate and CO₂
stock were analyzed using modeling studies and a
were considered, results were positive with a rela-
literature review.
tively wetter climate change scenario and negative
13
Effects of Climate Change
FIGURE 7. PERCENT CHANGE IN REGIONAL AGRICULTURAL ACREAGE
CHANGES IN LAND USE BY REGION
(PERCENT CHANGE IN ACREAGE)
20
20
0
10
20
02
-20
10
-10
0
-20
-40
-10
Lake States
-20
-60
20
Northern
Northeast
10
Plains
20
-80
0
10
20
-10
0
###
-20
-10
0
20
Mountain
-20
10
20
Corn Belt
-20
0
-10
0
-40
-20
20
Pacific
-20
20
-60
0
-40
0
Southern
-80
Plains
-20
GISS
-60
20
Appalachia
GFDL
33
40
80
-40
GISS+Direct Effects of CO2
GFDL+Direct Effects of CO2
-60
-60
Southeast
Delta
-80
States
Source: Adams et al.
-80
with the hotter, drier climate change scenario. Thus,
Farmers Would Likely Change Many of Their
the severity of the economic consequences could
Practices
depend on the type of climate change that occurs and
the ability of the direct effects of CO₂ to enhance
Farm practices would likely change in response
yields. A decline in crop production would reduce
to different climate conditions. Most significantly, in
exports, which could have serious implications for
many regions, the demand for irrigation is likely to
food-importing nations. If climate change is severe,
increase due to higher temperatures. If national
continued and substantial improvements in crop
productivity declines, crop prices may rise, making
yields would be needed to fully offset the negative
irrigation more economical and increasing the use of
effects. Technological improvements, such as im-
it (see Figure 8). Irrigation equipment may be
proved crop varieties from bioengineering, could be
installed in many areas that are currently dryland
helpful in keeping up with climate change. These
farms, and farmers already irrigating may extract
results could be affected by global changes in agricul-
more water from surface and groundwater sources.
ture, which were not considered in the analysis.
Changes in competing demands for water by munici-
14
Executive Summary
pal and industrial users, which could raise the cost of
States. This extension could reduce crop yields and
irrigation, were not considered. Farmers may also
affect livestock.
switch to more heat- and drought-resistant crop va-
rieties, plant two crops during a growing season, and
Shifts in Agriculture May Harm the Environment
plant and harvest earlier. Whether these adjust-
in Some Areas
ments would compensate for climate change de-
pends on a number of factors, including the severity
Expansion of irrigation and shifts in regional
of the climate change. Under extreme climate change
production patterns imply more competition for water
conditions, some farms could be abandoned.
resources, greater potential for surface water and
groundwater pollution, loss of some wildlife habi-
Ranges of Agricultural Pests May Extend
tats, and increased soil erosion. A northward migra-
Northward
tion of agriculture would increase the use of irriga-
tion and fertilizers on sandy soils, thus endangering
Warmer temperatures may result in the north-
the quality of underlying groundwater. Chemical
ward extension of the range of diseases and pests
pesticide usage may change to control different crop
that now afflict livestock in the South, and could
and livestock pests. Thus, climate change could
make conditions more favorable for the introduction
exacerbate environmental pollution and resource
of new livestock diseases into the southern United
use from agriculture in some areas.
FIGURE 8. CHANGE IN REGIONAL IRRIGATION ACREAGE
IRRIGATION ACREAGE CHANGES
(HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS)
70
60
50
40
15
30
10
20
5
10
0
0
-5
Northern
20
-10
Plains
15
-15
10
-20
5
30
Mountain
0
25
-5
20
80
2.5
-10
15
70
-15
Pacific
2.0
60
10
50
5
1.5
40
GISS
0
GFDL
1.0
30
Southern
GISS+Direct Effects of CO₂
3
20
Plains
0.5
10
GFDL+Direct Effects of CO2
0
0
Southeast
Delta
Source: Adams et al.
States
15
Effects of Climate Change
Water Resources
currently exists, SO riverflow and lake levels depend
more on rainfall patterns. Without better rainfall es-
The United States is endowed with a bountiful
timates, we cannot determine whether riverflow and
supply of water, but the water is not always in the
lake levels in the South would rise or fall.
right place at the right time or of the right quality. In
some regions, such as the Great Basin and the
Water Quality in Many Basins Could Change
Colorado River Basin, the gap between demand and
supply of water is narrow. In these basins, such
Changes in water supply could significantly
offstream uses as irrigation and domestic consump-
affect water quality. Where riverflow and lake levels
tion often conflict with each other and with other
decline, such as in the Great Lakes, there would be
needs, such as maintaining flow to preserve environ-
less water to dilute pollutants. On the other hand,
mental quality.
where there is more water, water quality may im-
prove. Higher temperatures may enhance thermal
Although global precipitation is likely to in-
stratification in some lakes and increase algal pro-
crease, it is not known how regional rainfall patterns
duction, degrading water quality. Changes in runoff
will be affected. Some regions may have more rain-
and leaching from farms and potential increases in
fall, while others may have less. Furthermore,
the use of irrigation for agriculture could affect
higher temperatures would most likely increase
surface and groundwater quality in many areas.
evaporation. These changes would likely create new
stresses for many water management systems.
Water Use Conflicts May Increase
To discuss the potential impacts of climate
In some regions, decreased water availability
change on water resources, this report studied water
and increased demand for water, such as for irriga-
resources in California, the Great Lakes, and the
tion and powerplant cooling, may intensify conflicts
Southeast, estimated the demand for irrigation in
among offstream uses. Conflicts between these
the Great Plains, and drew on information from the
offstream uses and instream uses such as flood
literature. These studies focused on changes in
control and wildlife habitat also may be intensified.
runoff, and in California and the Southeast, consid-
ered management responses. The studies examined
Electricity Demand
the water management systems as they are cur-
rently configured and did not examine new construc-
The demand for electricity is influenced by
tion. Among other factors not considered were
economic growth, by changes in industrial and resi-
changes in demand for water resources (which would
dential/commercial technologies, and by climate. The
most likely lead to greater changes in water manage-
principal climate-sensitive electricity end uses are
ment systems) and changes in vegetation due to
space heating and cooling and, to a lesser degree,
climate change and CO2 which could affect runoff.
water heating and refrigeration. These uses of
electricity may account for up to a third of total sales
The Direction of Change in Some Water Bodies
for some utilities and may contribute an even larger
Can Be Estimated, but Total Impacts in the
portion of seasonal and daily peak demands.
United States Cannot Be Determined
This report analyzed potential changes in the
Results of hydrology studies in some regions
national demand for electricity in 2010 and 2055,
indicate that it is possible to identify the direction of
using the relationship between demand and climate
change in water supplies and quality due to global
for several major utility systems. The study esti-
warming. For example, in California, higher tem-
mated changes in demand due to nonclimate factors,
peratures would reduce the snowpack and cause ear-
such as increases in population and GNP. The
lier melting. Earlier runoff from mountains could
impacts of climate change are expressed as an in-
increase winter flooding and reduce deliveries to
crease over non-climate growth, and results are
users. In the Great Lakes, reduced snowpack com-
given on nationwide and regional bases. The study
bined with potentially higher evaporation would
did not consider changes in technology and improve-
most likely lower lake levels (although certain com-
ments in energy efficiency; the impacts of higher
binations of conditions could lead to higher levels).
temperatures on the demand for natural gas and oil
In other areas, such as the South, little snowcover
for home heating, which will most likely decrease;
16
Executive Summary
changes in electricity supplies, such as hydropower;
greater than without climate change. The annual
or changes in demand for electricity for such uses as
costs of meeting the increase due to global warming,
irrigation.
assuming no change in technology or efficiency, was
estimated to be $33-73 billion (in 1986 dollars).
National Electricity Demand Would Rise
These results differ on a regional basis and are
shown in Figure 9. States along the northern tier of
Global warming would increase annual de-
the United States could have net reductions in an-
mand for electricity and total generating capacity
nual demand of up to 5%, because decreased heating
requirements in the United States. The demand for
demand would exceed increased demand for air-
electricity for summer cooling would increase, and
conditioning. In the South, where heating needs are
the demand for electricity for winter heating would
already low, net demand was estimated to rise by 7
decrease. Annual electricity generation in 2055 was
to 11% by 2055.
estimated under the transient scenarios to be 4 to 6%
FIGURE 9. CHANGES IN ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY STATE
INDUCED BY CLIMATE CHANGE IN 2055
2055
% CHANGE GENERATION
10 TO 15
5 to 10
0 to 5
Source: Linder and Inglis.
-5 to 0
17
Effects of Climate Change
FIGURE 10. CHANGES IN ELECTRICITY CAPACITY ADDITIONS BY STATE
INDUCED BY CLIMATE CHANGE IN 2055
2055
% CHANGE GENERATION
20 to 30
10 to 20
0 to 10
Source: Linder and Inglis.
-10 to 0
Generating capacity requirements are deter-
$175 and 325 billion (in 1988 dollars). The South
mined largely by peak demand, which occurs in the
would have a greater need than the North for addi-
summer in all but the far northern areas of the
tional capacity, as shown in Figure 10. Additional
country. By 2010, generating requirements to meet
capacity requirements could range from 0 to 10% in
increased demand could rise by 25 to 55 gigawatts
the North, to 20 to 30% in the South and Southwest.
(GW), or by 9 to 19% above new capacity require-
U.S. emissions of such greenhouse gases as CO2
ments, assuming no climate change. By 2055, gen-
could increase substantially if additional power-
erating requirements could be up by 200 to 400 GW,
plants are built to meet these capacity requirements,
or 14 to 23% above non-climate-related growth. The
especially if they burn coal. Improvement in the
cumulative cost of such an increase in capacity,
efficiency of energy production and use would reduce
assuming no change in technology or improvements
these emissions.
in energy efficiency, was estimated to be between
18
Executive Summary
Air Quality
ides over what they would be without climate change.
Natural emissions of sulfur would also change, but
Air pollution caused by emissions from indus-
the direction is uncertain. Although the potential
trial and transportation sources is a subject of con-
magnitude of the impacts of the increased emissions
cern in the United States. Over the last two decades,
on air quality is uncertain, higher temperatures
considerable progress has been made in improving
would speed the reaction rates among chemicals in
air quality by reducing emissions. Yet high tempera-
the atmosphere, causing higher ozone pollution in
tures in the summer of 1988 helped raise tropo-
many urban areas than would occur otherwise. They
spheric ozone levels to all-time highs in many U.S.
would also increase the length of the summer season,
cities. But air quality is also directly affected by
usually a time of high air pollution levels. As shown
other weather variables, such as windspeed and
in Figure 11, preliminary analyses of a 4°C tempera-
direction, precipitation patterns, cloud cover, atmos-
ture increase in the San Francisco Bay area (with no
pheric water vapor, and global circulation patterns.
changes in other meteorologic variables, such as
mixing heights), assuming no change in emissions
A literature review of the relationship between
from current levels, suggest that maximum ozone
climate and air pollution was conducted for this
concentrations would increase by 20%, and that the
report. In addition, air quality models were used for
area exceeding the National Ambient Air Quality
a preliminary analysis of the changes in ozone levels
Standards would almost double. Studies of the South-
in several regions. The latter analysis did not con-
east also show expansion of the areas violating the
sider reduction in emissions of air pollutants due to
standards, but they show smaller changes in levels.
enforcement of the Clean Air Act.
Although the impacts of higher temperatures
Climate Changes Could Increase Air Pollution,
on acid rain were not analyzed, it is likely that sulfur
Especially Smog
and nitrogen would oxidize more rapidly under higher
temperatures. The ultimate effect on acid deposition
A rise in global temperatures would increase
is difficult to assess because changes in clouds, winds,
manmade and natural emissions of hydrocarbons
and precipitation patterns are uncertain.
and manmade emissions of sulfur and nitrogen ox-
FIGURE 11. CHANGES IN MAXIMUM DAILY OZONE CONCENTRATIONS
Exceeds Standard
<6
>6
>8
>10
>12
>14
>16
Sacramentor
Sacramento
San Fran
Oakland
San Fran
Oakland
Stockton
Stockton
San Jose
San Jose
Modesto
Crow Landing
Modesto
Crow Landing
Castle AFB
Castle AFB
Yosemite
Yosemite
Salinas
Salinas
Base Case
Climate Sensitivity Scenario No. 1
August 6, 1981
4°C Temperature Increase
Source: Morris et al.
19
Effects of Climate Change
Health Effects
Regional Morbidity Patterns Could Change
Changes in climate as well as in habitat may
Human illness and mortality are linked in
alter the regional prevalence of vector-borne dis-
many ways to weather patterns. Weather affects
eases. For example, some forests may become grass-
contagious diseases such as influenza and pneumo-
lands, thereby modifying the incidence of vector-
nia, and allergic diseases such as asthma. Mortality
borne diseases. Changes in summer rainfall could
rates, particularly for the elderly and the very ill, are
alter the amount of ragweed growing on cultivated
influenced by the frequency and severity of extreme
land, and changes in humidity may affect the inci-
temperatures. The life cycles of disease-carrying
dence and severity of skin infections and infesta-
insects, such as mosquitoes and ticks, are affected by
tions, such as ringworm, candidiasis, and scabies.
changes in temperature and rainfall, as well as by
Increases in the persistence and level of air pollution
habitat, which is itself sensitive to climate. Finally,
episodes associated with climate change will have
increased air pollution, which is related to weather
other harmful health effects.
patterns, can heighten the incidence and severity of
such respiratory diseases as emphysema and asthma.
Urban Infrastructure
Both expert judgment and modeling were used
to study the potential impacts of climate change on
The value of municipal infrastructure in the
human health. A literature review and workshop
United States, excluding buildings and electric power
were conducted to identify potential changes in vec-
production, probably approaches one trillion dollars.
tor-borne diseases caused by ticks, fleas, and mos-
The majority of the nation's investments are in water
quitoes (such as dengue and malaria). Models were
supply, wastewater transport and treatment facili-
used to estimate potential geographic shifts in the
ties, drainage, roadways, airports, and mass transit
prevalence of Rocky Mountain spotted fever and
facilities. Like the regions studied for this report,
malaria. Potential changes in mortality from heat
urban areas would feel a variety of impacts from
and cold stress were quantitatively estimated, al-
climate change. This report examined the potential
though such estimates did not consider changes in
impacts of climate change on Cleveland, New York
air pollution levels. The total impacts of climate
City, and Miami. These areas encompass a diversity
change on human health are difficult to assess; these
of climates and uses of natural resources.
analyses only looked at a limited number of potential
effects and are only indicative of possible changes in
Much of the current inventory in urban infra-
mortality and morbidity.
structure will most likely turn over in the next 35 to
50 years. A warmer global climate would require
Summer Mortality Could Increase, While Winter
changes in the capital investment patterns of cities
Mortality Could Decrease
for water supplies, peak electric generating capacity,
and storm sewer capacity. Urbanized coastal areas
Global warming may lead to changes in mor-
might have to invest additional billions of dollars
bidity and increases in mortality, particularly for the
into coastal protection to defend developed areas
elderly during the summer. There may be decreases
from a rising sea. In Miami, for example, this would
in morbidity and mortality because of milder win-
imply an increase of 1 to 2% in the city's capital
ters, although net mortality may increase. If the
spending over the next 100 years. Generally, north-
frequency or intensity of climate extremes increases,
ern cities such as Cleveland may fare better, since
mortality is likely to rise. If people acclimatize by
reductions in the operating and maintenance costs
using air-conditioning, changing their workplace
associated with heating public buildings, snow
habits, and altering the construction of their homes
removal, and road maintenance should offset in-
and cities, the impact on summer mortality rates
creasing costs for air-conditioning and port dredging
may be substantially reduced.
(see Table 3).
20
Executive Summary
TABLE 3. ESTIMATED IMPACTS OF A DOUBLING OF CO2 ON CLEVELAND'S ANNUAL
INFRASTRUCTURE COSTS
(MILLIONS OF 1987 DOLLARS)
Annual
Cost Category
Operating Costs
Heating
-$2.3
Air-conditioning
+$6.6-9.3
Snow and ice control
-$4.5
Frost damage to roads
-$0.7
Road maintenance
-$0.5
Road reconstruction
-$0.2
Mass transit
summer increase offsets
winter savings
River dredging
less than $0.5
Water supply
negligible
Stormwater system
negligible
Total
-$1.6 to +$1.1
Source: Walker et al.
21
Effects of Climate Change
REGIONAL IMPACTS
were combined with sea level rise estimates and used
to model how the salinity and shape of the San
Francisco Bay estuary may change and how the
demand for carriage water may be affected. The
Studying the national impacts of climate change
estimated changes in salinity and sea level rise were
may disguise important differences in regional ef-
used to examine impacts on the ecology of the bay.
fects across the country. Shifting demands for eco-
Yield changes for a number of crops grown in the
nomic and natural resources may cause stresses that
state were estimated as were changes in ozone levels
cannot be seen at a national level. Furthermore,
in central California and changes in electricity
changes in one system, such as water supply, may
demand (see Figure 12).
affect other systems such as irrigation for agricul-
ture. These combined effects may be most evident on
California's Water Management System Would
a regional scale. The designs of the regional studies
Have To Be Modified
on agriculture, forests, and electricity were described
above.
Warmer temperatures would change the sea-
sonality of runoff from the mountains surrounding
The studies discussed below only considered
the Central Valley. Runoff would be higher in the
some of the potential regional impacts. Many poten-
winter months due to less snowpack and more pre-
tial impacts were not analyzed - for example,
cipitation in the form of rain. Consequently, runoff
demographic shifts into or out of the Southeast,
would be lower in the late spring and summer.
recreational impacts in the Great Lakes, direct ef-
Under these conditions, the current reservoir system
fects on such aquifers as the Ogallala in the Great
in the Central Valley would not have the capacity to
Plains, and impacts on many specialty crops in
provide adequate flood protection in the winter and
California. The discussion that follows should not be
store enough water to meet deliveries in the summer.
viewed as comprehensive, but rather as examples of
Thus, much of the earlier winter runoff would have
important issues for each region.
to be released. This would leave less water in the
system for late spring and summer deliveries, when
California
runoff would be lower. Under the three GCM scenar-
ios, annual water deliveries from the SWP were
California contains a highly managed water
estimated to decrease by 200,000 to 400,000 acre feet
resource system and one of the most productive
(7 to 16% of supply). In contrast, the increase in
agricultural regions in the world. The state produces
statewide demand for water from the SWP due to
14% of the nation's cash receipts for agriculture.
non-climate factors such as population growth, may
California's water resources are poorly distributed
total 1.4 million acre feet by 2010. Reduced snow-
in relation to its needs. Precipitation is abundant in
pack and earlier runoff are likely to happen through-
the north, with the highest levels in the winter, while
out the West, exacerbating water management prob-
water is needed in the south for agriculture and
lems in a region that is currently short of water.
domestic consumption. The Central Valley Project
(CVP) and State Water Project (SWP) were built ba-
Climate Change Is Likely to Increase Water
sically to capture runoff from the north and deliver it
Demand
to uses in the south. These projects also provide flood
protection, hydroelectric power, and freshwater flows
On the whole, California's water demand could
to repel salinity (known as carriage water) in the
increase with a warmer climate. Twice as much
Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta. Islands in the
carriage water may be needed to repel higher salin-
delta are highly productive farmlands and are pro-
ity levels resulting from a 1-meter sea level rise. In
tected by levees.
addition, consumptive uses may also increase. Irri-
gation, which may come from groundwater, may
The California case study focused on the Cen-
increase in some parts of the state. If new power-
tral Valley. First, changes in runoff in the valley
plants are built, they would need water for cooling;
were estimated. These results were then used to
which could come from surface water supplies, de-
estimate changes in deliveries from the CVP and
pending on the location. Although it was not studied,
SWP and in agricultural water use. These results
municipal demand for water may also rise.
22
Executive Summary
FIGURE 12. CALIFORNIA
Water Resources
Wetlands and Fisheries
Sea level rise could cause:
Regional warming could cause:
higher winter, lower summer runoff
gradual inundation of wetlands
decreased deliveries from Central
increased salinity in and size of
San Francisco Bay
Valley Project and State Water Project
shift from brackish and freshwater
decreased water quality in subalpine
species to marine species
lakes
Agriculture
Increases in temperature and CO 2
concentrations could cause:
variable crop responses
a northward shift in agricultural
production
increased irrigation demand
resulting in groundwater extraction
and decreased water quality
Air Quality
Higher temperatures would increase
Electricity
ambient ozone levels in central California
Higher temperatures could increase
electricity demand
TEMPERATURE SCENARIOS
Double CO 2
6
PRECIPITATION SCENARIOS
0.6
0.5
5
0.4
0.3
4
TEMPERATURE (°C)
0.2
3
MILLIMETERS/DAY
0.1
0
-0.1
2
-0.2
GISS
-0.3
1
GFOL
-0.4
-0.5
0
OSU
-0.6
WINTER
SPRING
SUMMER
FALL
WINTER
SPRING
SUMMER
FALL
Sea Level Rise Would Affect the Size and
species would become relatively more abundant, and
Environment of San Francisco Bay
freshwater species would decline.
A sea level rise would increase the salt concen-
Climate Change Could Degrade Air Quality in
trations of San Francisco Bay. It is estimated that a
California
1-meter rise could cause the salt front in the Sacra-
mento-San Joaquin River Delta to migrate upstream
Air quality is currently a major concern in
4 to 10 km (2.5 to 6 miles). Sea level rise would also
California. The area of central California in viola-
make it harder to maintain the Sacramento-San
tion of ozone quality standards could increase due to
Joaquin Delta islands. If the levees around the delta
higher temperatures. Under one climate scenario,
islands are strengthened and raised, a 1-meter rise
with a 4°C rise and current emission levels, the
could increase the volume of the San Francisco Bay
maximum size of the area with ozone levels in excess
estuary by 15% and the area by 30%. If the levees are
of the EPA standard of 0.12 ppm could double. This
not maintained and the islands are flooded, there
scenario assumed that such climate variables as
would be a doubling and tripling, respectively, of the
winds and mixing height (the volume of air in which
volume and area of the bay. As a result of these
pollutants were diluted) would not change.
changes, some wetlands would be lost, marine aquatic
23
Effects of Climate Change
Great Lakes
Models were used to estimate the potential
impacts of climate change on lake levels and ice
The Great Lakes contain 18% of the world's
cover. Results from these studies were used to ana-
supply and 95% of the U.S. supply of surface fresh-
lyze impacts on navigation and shorelines. Changes
water, and are an important source of commerce and
in the thermal structure of the Central Basin of Lake
recreation for the region. In recent years, reductions
Erie and southern Lake Michigan were estimated.
in pollutant loadings have significantly improved
Output from these studies was used along with
the quality of such water bodies as Lake Erie. The
scenario temperatures to analyze potential impacts
Great Lakes states produce 59% of the country's corn
on fishes in the lakes. Changes in crop yields were es-
and 40% of its soybeans, and their forests have
timated for corn and soybean and changes in forest
important commercial, recreational, and conserva-
composition were analyzed for Michigan and Minne-
tion uses.
sota (see Figure 13).
FIGURE 13. GREAT LAKES
Lakes
Wetlands and Fisheries
Climate change could:
Higher temperatures could cause:
cause average lake levels to fall by
an increase in fish habitats in fall, winter,
0.5 to 2.5 meters
and spring, and a decrease in summer
reduce ice cover duration by 1-3 months
accelerated growth for some fish species
Adjustments may be required, including:
potential invasion by new species
increased dredging of harbors and
channels, or
lower cargo capacities on ships
Agriculture
Higher temperatures could cause:
corn and soybean yields to increase in
North, decline in Cornbelt; mixed results
under climate change and CO₂
acreage could expand in the North,
leading to increased erosion and runoff
Water Quality
Changes in temperature and precipitation
could cause:
Forests
greater stratification in lakes and
increased growth of algae, which in turn
Higher temperatures could result in:
could reduce dissolved oxygen levels in
loss of mixed northern hardwood and
shallow areas
oak in southern areas
an increase in pollutants resulting from
shifts of mixed northern hardwood and
more dredging
boreal forests in northern areas to all
northern hardwood
forest declines evident in 30 to 60 years
TEMPERATURE SCENARIOS
PRECIPITATION SCENARIOS
Double CO 2
0.6
8
0.5
7
0.4
0.3
6
TEMPERATURE (°C)
MILLIMETERS/DAY
0.2
5
0.1
0
4
-0.1
3
GISS
-0.2
Not
-0.3
Calculated
2
GFDL
-0.4
1
-0.5
OSU
0
-0.6
WINTER
SPRING
SUMMER
FALL
WINTER
SPRING
SUMMER
FALL
24
Executive Summary
Lake Levels Are Likely to Drop and Ice Cover
In response to lower lake levels, either ships
Duration Would Decrease
would have to sail with reduced cargoes or ports and
channels would have to be dredged. On the other
Higher temperatures would most likely reduce
hand, a shorter ice season would allow for a longer
snowpack and increase evaporation, which would
shipping season.
lower lake levels. The level of Lake Superior was
estimated to be reduced by 0.4 to 0.5 meters (1.2 to
Water Quality May Be Degraded in Some Areas
1.5 feet), and that of Lake Michigan by 0.9 to 2.5
meters (3 to 8 feet). Diversions out of the lakes for
Higher temperatures could lengthen stratifi-
irrigation or to supply other basins would further
cation of the lakes (where summer temperatures
lower lake levels, although these were not analyzed.
warm the upper part of lakes and isolate the cooler
These results are very sensitive to assumptions
lower layers of lakes). Analysis of the Central Basin
made about evaporation and under an unlikely com-
of Lake Erie showed that longer stratification, com-
bination of circumstances, lake levels could rise.
bined with increased algal productivity, would most
likely reduce dissolved oxygen levels in the lower
Higher temperatures would also reduce ice
layers of the lake (see Figure 14). Reducing pollutant
cover on the lakes. Specifically, they could cut ice
loadings in the lake would likely result in less severe
duration by 1 to 3 months on Lake Superior and by
impacts. One study raised the possibility that the
2 to 3 months on Lake Erie, although ice would still
annual mixing of a lake such as Lake Michigan may
form on both lakes. Changes in windspeed would
be disrupted. If winds and storms increase, such
affect the reduction in duration of ice cover.
outcomes would be less likely. Disposal of contami-
nated dredge soils could increase water pollution.
FIGURE 14. AREA OF CENTRAL BASIN OF LAKE ERIE THAT BECOMES
ANOXIC UNDER DOUBLED CO₂ SCENARIOS
AUGUST 1970*
AUGUST 1975*
BASE CASE
40.6%
0.0%
GISS PROJECTION
80.5%
0.0%
GFDL PROJECTION
0
94.4%
5.9%
OSU PROJECTION
100%
28.8%
* Base Case Years
////
Area That Is Anoxic (Has No Oxygen)
Source: Blumberg and DiToro.
25
Effects of Climate Change
Fish Productivity In Open Areas May Increase
however, could limit agricultural expansion. In-
creased cultivation in northern areas could increase
The average annual thermal habitat would
erosion and runoff, with negative impacts on surface
increase with a warmer climate (see Figure 15). If
and groundwater quality.
sufficient oxygen is present, growth rates and pro-
ductivity for such fish as bass and lake trout in open
Forests Could Change in Abundance and
areas of large lakes may increase, provided that the
Composition
forage base also increases. However, reduced ice
cover and decreased water quality could harm some
Northern hardwood forests in dry sites in
species in shallow basins of the Great Lakes. The
Michigan would die back and could become oak
effects of increased species interaction, changes in
savannas or grasslands. In northern Minnesota,
spawning areas, and possible invasion of exotic spe-
mixed boreal and northern hardwood forests may
cies were not analyzed.
become completely northern hardwoods. Productiv-
ity in some wet sites in Michigan could improve.
Northern Agriculture May Benefit
Commercially important softwood species could be
replaced by hardwoods used for different purposes.
Due to the relative increase in northern agri-
Changes in forests could be evident in 30 to 60 years.
cultural productivity, agriculture could be enhanced
Whether reforestation with southern species not
in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and northern Michigan
currently in the region and CO2 fertilization would
with additional opportunities for the agriculture
mitigate these impacts was not studied.
support sector. The presence of relatively poor soils,
FIGURE 15. INCREASES IN THERMAL HABITAT FOR LAKE TROUT IN
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN UNDER ALTERNATIVE CLIMATE SCENARIOS
0
50
BASE CLIMATE
100
0
50
OSU
DEPTH (M)
100
0
50
HABITAT:
= 2°C OF OPTIMUM TEMPERATURE
GISS
+ 5°C OF OPTIMUM TEMPERATURE
100
0
50
GFDL
100
Source: Magnuson et al.
JAN
MAR
JUN
SEP
DEC
MONTH
26
Executive Summary
Southeast
Valley Authority examined the potential vulnerabil-
ity of its water management system to high and low
The Southeast is distinguished from the other
riverflow scenarios (based on runoff estimates from
regions in this study by its warm temperatures,
GCMs). Flow in the Chattahoochee River Basin was
abundant rainfall, large coastal plain, and produc-
estimated using hydrologic analysis to study im-
tive marine fisheries. The region supplies about half
pacts on the management of Lake Lanier, which sup-
of the nation's softwood and hardwood timber, and
plies water to Atlanta. The estimates of outflow from
tobacco, corn, and soybeans are among its major
the lake, along with estimates of the flow in the
crops. Over 85% of the nation's coastal wetlands are
Apalachicola River, were combined with potential
in the Southeast, and over 43% of the finfish and 70%
wetland losses attributable to sea level rise to iden-
of the shellfish harvested in the United States are
tify impacts on finfish and shellfish in Apalachicola
caught in the region.
Bay. Sea level rise impacts for the entire Southeast
were derived from the national studies. Crop yields
This report focused on two regions within the
were estimated for corn and soybeans, and changes
Southeast: the Tennessee Valley and the Chattah-
in forest composition were analyzed at several sites
oochee and Apalachicola Rivers. The Tennessee
across the region (see Figure 16).
FIGURE 16. SOUTHEAST
Agriculture
Forests
Climate change could:
Higher temperatures could result in:
decrease corn and soybean yields in
significant dieback of southern forests
hotter areas and could have mixed
with declines evident in 30 to 80 years
results elsewhere
regeneration of species becoming
decrease cultivated acreage
difficult
increase need for irrigation
increase pest infestations
Water Resources
Increased temperature and changes
in precipitation could:
produce uncertain effects for water
Electricity
resource availability
Higher temperatures could increase
affect water quality and flood risks
electricity demand
lower levels in some recreational lakes
Sea Level Rise
Rising sea level could:
Fisheries
inundate a significant proportion of the
Higher water temperatures and rising
region's coastal wetlands
sea level could reduce fin fish and
flood some dry land areas
shellfish populations
create significant costs for protecting
coastal resources
TEMPERATURE SCENARIOS
PRECIPITATION SCENARIOS
Double CO 2
6
0.7
0.6
5
0.5
0.4
4
TEMPERATURE (°C)
MILLIMETERS/DAY
0.3
0.2
3
0.1
0
2
GISS
-0.1
-0.2
GFDL
1
-0.3
-0.4
OSU
0
-0.5
WINTER
SPRING
SUMMER
FALL
WINTER
SPRING
SUMMER
FALL
27
Effects of Climate Change
Adverse Impacts on Agriculture and Forests Could
The Great Plains
Hurt the Region
Decreases in the relative productivity of south-
Agriculture is one of the main sources of in-
come in the Great Plains. The states of Kansas,
eastern agriculture were estimated to lead to the
Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas produced 80% of
abandonment of 10 to 50% of the agricultural acre-
age in the region. The studies did not consider intro-
the nation's sorghum and 30% of the wheat crop in
duction of new crops, such as citrus, or the use of new
1982. In recent years, creased use of water from the
technologies, such as biotechnology.
Ogallala Aquifer has reduced groundwater levels in
the region, with potential long-term consequences
Most forests in the Southeast were estimated
for agriculture and the economy.
to have difficulty surviving climate change. Dieback
The studies in this report focused on Nebraska,
of existing forests in such areas as Georgia and
Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas and concentrated
Mississippi may be particularly large. These changes
mainly on agriculture-related impacts. They esti-
could be evident in 30 to 80 years. The forest studies
mated changes in corn, wheat, and soybean yields
did not consider whether more southern species
and in the demand for irrigation. Changes in runoff
could be transplanted and survive in the region, not
did they account for higher CO₂ concentrations, which
and leaching of chemicals from farms were also
examined (see Figure 17).
could mitigate some losses. The combined effects of
reduced agriculture and forestry could lead to sig-
nificant economic loses in the Southeast.
Crop Acreage Could Decline
Many Coastal Fish Species Would Be Harmed
The crop yield and economic adjustment stud-
ies indicate that grain crop acreage could diminish in
Sea level rise could inundate most of the coastal
the region. The direction of changes in wheat and
wetlands and raise salinity levels, which could re-
corn yields depends on the direct effects of CO2 on
crop growth and the severity of climate change. If
duce the populations of Gulf Coast fisheries. In
climate becomes hotter and relatively drier, yields
addition, higher temperatures may exceed the ther-
could decrease. Whatever the climate change, rela-
mal tolerances of many species of shellfish in Gulf
tive productivity may decline, compared to northern
Coast estuaries, further reducing fish populations.
areas. As a result, crop acreage was estimated to
Whether these species would be able to migrate to
drop by 4 to 22%. Such a reduction in agriculture
cooler water was not considered. Some species,
however, could increase in abundance, while others
could adversely affect the economy of the region.
These studies did not consider use of new technolo-
may migrate into the region.
gies or introduction of new crops.
The Studies Were Unable To Determine Region-
wide Impacts on Water Resources
Demand for Irrigated Acreage Would
Increase
The Southeast currently has little winter
snowcover. Therefore, seasonal runoff depends much
The demand for irrigation on the farms that
continue to grow grain crop could increase. Irrigated
more on changes in rainfall than on changes in
temperature which affect the size of snowpack.
acreage, which currently makes up about 10% of the
Analysis of the rivers managed by the Tennessee
total acreage and is growing, could increase by 5 to
30%. This report did not examine how this demand
Valley Authority showed that increased runoff could
lead to higher riverflow and higher flood probabili-
would be satisfied, although the Ogallala Aquifer
ties, while less runoff could reduce flood probabili-
could be a candidate. Other impacts of global warm-
ties, but could lead to lower riverflow problems main-
ing could change ground and surface water supplies
taining adequate supplies for industrial use, power-
and, possibly, surface water quality. Changes in pre-
plants, and dilution of effluent. Use of climate
cipitation could affect the leaching of pesticides into
change scenarios produced inconclusive results con-
groundwater and runoff to surface waters in some
cerning the potential change in flow in the Chattah-
cases, although the direction of change can not be
oochee River. A study of the management of Lake
determined because runoff and leaching of pes-
ticides and soils are very sensitive to rainfall vari-
Lanier concluded that changes in operating rules
would be sufficient to handle higher or lower flows
ability.
estimated in the scenarios, although some uses would
be restricted.
28
Executive Summary
FIGURE 17. THE GREAT PLAINS
Agriculture
Higher temperatures could:
reduce corn and wheat yields, and
could have mixed effects on yields
when considering both climate change
and increased CO 2
reduce crop acreage
Irrigation Demand
Changes in agriculture are likely to
result in increased irrigation demand
and acreage
Water Quality
Electricity
Changes in rainfall, runoff, pesticide
Higher temperatures could increase
loadings, erosion, and irrigation
electricity demand
could affect water quality
TEMPERATURE SCENARIOS
Double CO 2
PRECIPITATION SCENARIOS
0.2
6
0.1
5
0
TEMPERATURE (C)
4
MILLIMETERS/DAY
-0.1
-0.2
3
-0.3
2
GISS
-0.4
1
GFDL
-0.5
0
OSU
-0.6
WINTER
SPRING
SUMMER
FALL
WINTER
SPRING
SUMMER
FALL
29
Effects of Climate Change
FINAL THOUGHTS AND
Finally, research and education are needed in many
areas to improve our ability to respond to these
POLICY IMPLICATIONS
changes. In any case, managers should reexamine
their systems to consider ways to improve the flexi-
bility and resiliency of the systems to handle these
Because this is the most comprehensive study
and other changes. The criteria to guide decisions
to address the issue of the environmental effects of
should include consideration of the following factors:
climate change in the United States, we expect that
a sizable debate will follow its publication. Consid-
the uncertainties in the magnitude and
erable additional research and analyses are likely to
timing of effects;
amplify, improve, and challenge these findings. We
whether the lifetime of the plan, project, or
expect further research to develop new insights into
policy is long enough to be affected by climate
the role of climate, but precise forecasts must await
change;
more advanced climate models, which may require
whether effects of climate change are
many years to develop. For some time to come, our
irreversible;
ability to provide national and local officials with
whether the policy or project will increase
guidance may be limited to effects driven primarily
flexibility and resilience or restrict future
by temperature and sea level changes.
options;
whether a policy or action makes economic or
Apart from strategies to limit emissions of
environmental sense, even without climate
greenhouse gases (discussed in the companion re-
change;
port), policymakers should consider policy options
the uniqueness of the ecosystems or man-
for adapting to global warming. Consideration of
made structures that may need protection;
these options is complicated by the uncertainties
and
identified in this report by delays in the onset of
whether the impacts would be greater if no
climate change, and by the pressure to solve today's
anticipatory action were taken.
problems. Many adaptations would undoubtedly
occur as climate changes, but some decisions being
The U.S. government is strongly supporting
made today have a long enough lifetime and suffi-
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
cient risk to support consideration of the impacts of
(IPCC) under the auspices of the United Nations
the greenhouse effect. These decisions should be
Environment Programme and the World Meteoro-
made if they make economic and environmental
logical Organization. The IPCC has established a
sense for today's conditions and are sufficiently flex-
process for governments to follow when reviewing
ible to handle changing climate. Given the uncer-
scientific information and policy options. The fed-
tainty about the timing, magnitude, and regional
eral government is conducting other activities on
scope of climate change, we cannot plan for specific
global climate change. The Global Climate Protec-
climate conditions in the future, but can strive to be
tion Act of 1987 calls for a scientific assessment of
ready to respond to significantly changed climate
climate change which is to be completed by 1989.
conditions in the future.
This work will be sponsored by EPA and other
federal agencies such as the National Aeronautics
Conversely, natural resource management
and Space Administration, the National Oceanic
should not assume that climate will not change. All
and Atmospheric Administration, and the National
managers of natural resources that are sensitive to
Science Foundation, and coordinated through the
climate should consider the vulnerabilities of their
IPCC. Also, the Department of Energy and EPA
systems to climate change and whether anticipatory
have been asked to report to Congress on policy
steps are prudent. In some cases, no anticipatory
options for reducing CO₂ emissions in the United
action would be needed - the systems can be ad-
States. In addition, various federal agencies conduct
justed and adaptated as climate changes. In other
significant research programs on climate. These
areas, where long-term decisions on sensitive sys-
research efforts on climate change are coordinated
tems may result in irreversible impacts, anticipatory
by the National Climate Program Office and the
actions to mitigate these potential effects may be
Committee on Earth Sciences. The latter has pro-
required. It may make sense in some instances to
duced a plan called Our Changing Planet: A United
change the rules under which long-term planning is
States Strategy for Global Change Research, which
done, such as zoning laws, to allow for consideration
outlines federal research activities.
of climate change in private-sector decisions.
30
Executive Summary
The federal government can also take the lead
other nations, state and local governments, indus-
in pursuing prudent policies in anticipation of cli-
try, and even individuals. The regional studies in
mate change, and many agencies can play a role in
this report demonstrate that climate change cuts
preparing the country for the impacts. These include
across manmade and natural systems, geographic
the departments of the Interior, Energy, Health and
boundaries, and government agencies. Research,
Human Services, and Agriculture; the U.S. Environ-
technical guidance, planning, and creative ap-
mental Protection Agency; and the U.S. Army Corps
proaches to resource management will be needed in
of Engineers (see box on "Federal Activities").
the future to prepare for the impacts of climate
However, adaptation should not occur just at the
change on the United States.
federal level, for there will likely be a need to involve
FEDERAL ACTIVITIES THAT SHOULD CONSIDER CLIMATE CHANGE
Sample questions relating to climate change impacts that federal agencies should consider:
Agencies
Policy Questions
U.S. Environmental
How should current wetland protection programs be modified to accommodate
Protection Agency
future sea level rise and precipitation changes?
Should regulatory approaches to air pollution be supplemented with incentive
systems, new chemicals, or relocation policies?
U.S. Department of the
Should national parks and wildlife refuges purchase land to accommodate
Interior
migration necessitated by climate change? Should additional parks and
refuges be created?
Are current activities increasing the vulnerability of species that might be
threatened by climate change?
Should the U.S. Geological Survey produce maps with finer contour intervals
in coastal areas? How will climate change alter projected ground water levels?
Will current water policies in the West prove to have been ill-advised if the
climate changes?
U.S. Department
Do price support programs help or hinder the adjustments that climate change
of Agriculture
may necessitate?
To what extent could irrigation be increased on a sustainable basis if climate
becomes drier?
What actions would be necessary to maintain national forests as the climate
changes?
U.S. Army Corps
How does a consideration of future climate change alter the relative merits of
of Engineers
alternative approaches to coastal protection, flood control, and navigation?
Will climate change affect the success of wetland protection efforts in
Louisiana as administered under Section 404 of the Clean Water Act?
Federal Emergency
Would current rate caps on premiums enable the National Flood Insurance
Management Agency
Program to remain solvent if climate changes?
U.S. Department of
Are current programs adequate to address potential changes in mortality and
Health and Human
shifts in diseases resulting from climate change?
Services
31
U.S. Department of Justice
Land and Natural Resources Division
Office of the Assistant Attorney General
Washington, D.C. 20530
June 21, 1990
Hon. John A. Knauss
Undersecretary,
National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration
Department of Commerce
14th and Constitution Ave., N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20230
Dear Dr. Knauss:
This letter responds to your request that each agency
participating in the CEES Mitigation and Adaptation Research
Strategies (MARS) Working Group submit proposals for work to be
done under the MARS FY 92 program and beyond.
As you know, under the auspices of the DPC Working
Group on Global Change, we have been asked to lead a task force
developing the practical underpinnings of the "comprehensive" and
"emissions trading" approaches in preparation for international
discussions on potential climate change policy. Our task force
met June 19 to discuss the two main research components of the
comprehensive approach: measuring and monitoring net emissions of
greenhouse gases, and developing an index of the comparative
impacts of the various gases. We were briefed by Dr. Dan
Albritton of NOAA on the current science and the needs for
further research. Our group, which included attendees from DOE,
DOI, DOJ, EPA, NOAA, NSF, OSTP, USDA, and White House Counsel,
considered how best to organize this research. The strong
consensus was that the CEES Working Groups, in particular the
MARS group (in light of its areas of expertise, and the emphasis
of its Charter on supporting U.S. international negotiating
positions), could play a key role in furthering this work, which
includes the following:
- 2 -
1. Developing an accounting of net emissions of
greenhouse gases. The MARS Working Group's Charter makes
clear its intent to encompass all greenhouse gases, their
sources and sinks. Much work is underway in many nations on
the emissions of carbon dioxide from energy consumption
practices. Additional work is needed on global, national
and sectoral accountings of:
- Sinks of CO2, including the role of oceans, oceanic
life, and ocean sequestration; roles of forests,
grasses, and other plants; above-ground and below-
ground sequestration; and chemical reactions in the
atmosphere;
- Emissions sources and sinks of the other important
trace gases, including both point and non-point sources
(e.g. agricultural emissions of N2O and CH4).
Without such research, policy proposals will likely focus
only on limiting CO2 emissions from industry, excluding the
use of sinks and limits on other gases from a variety of
sources. Such a narrow focus on CO2 would be less
environmentally effective (given the radiative importance of
other gases), less economically efficient and less equitable
than a comprehensive approach.
The 16 gas-by-sector analyses currently being developed
by the Mitigation Subcommittee of the MARS group are a
promising beginning on such research. Sinks for CO2, under
items 6, 15 and 16, are especially in need of research, as
are the sources and sinks of N20 and CH4. We suggest adding
halons, HCFCS and other related substances to item 11.
Under item 14, the sources and sinks, including atmospheric
sinks, of tropospheric ozone and its precursors should be
analyzed. The MARS FY 92 research plan should contain
explicit and detailed proposals to advance the accounting of
sources and sinks of all greenhouse gases.
2. Developing practical means of monitoring or
otherwise calculating actual emissions from sources and
uptakes by sinks. Where practicable, means to directly
monitor net emissions rates should be developed. In
addition to direct monitoring, it will be necessary to
develop surrogates or proxies for calculating net emissions
that are not directly measurable. This task also includes
devising means of monitoring and calculation that are
sensitive to changes in net emissions resulting from changes
in the ratio of resource inputs to greenhouse gas outputs,
e.g. changes in fuel combustion techniques, animal diets,
fertilizers, genetically engineered organisms, etc.
- 3 -
This monitoring or calculating capability is essential
if claimed accomplishments and compliance with international
and national policy instruments are to be objectively
verifiable. In addition, careful monitoring or calculation
of actual net emissions will enable better forecasts of
future atmospheric concentrations of relevant trace gases.
Both CEES Working Groups appear to have expertise in
this area. The need to understand the activities,
technologies and practices that lead to emissions (and the
careful choice of surrogates to monitor certain emissions)
suggest a prominent role for MARS. Perhaps a joint group
would be best.
3. Developing an understanding of the comparative
environmental impacts of greenhouse gases, building on the
current work on an "index" of "global warming potentials."
(See the GWP index developed by Working Group I of the IPCC,
and the ODPs used in the Montreal Protocol.) This task is
central to the development of the comprehensive approach.
Cosiderable work has already been done on the instantaneous
radiative forcing of the different gases, and this factor is
in general quite well understood (though additional work
could be done to relate forcings to the ambient
concentration of the gas and other relevant factors). The
key items for the MARS research plan to pursue further work
on include:
(a) Residence times and chemical behavior of different
greenhouse gases, especially the residence time of CO2,
which is still subject to important uncertainties.
Determining the residence time of CO2 will, in turn, require
better understanding of its sinks. Better estimates of
residence times of CH4 and other gases with important
atmospheric chemical sinks are also needed; this in turn
implies better understanding of such factors as the hydroxyl
population and its behavior in the atmosphere.
(b) Incorporating discount rates or time horizons. The
choice of time values will rest on scientific, environmental
and socioeconomic factors.
(c) Incorporating the flexibility to respond to new
research results about residence times and other factors.
(d) Constructing an overall environmental impacts
index, beginning with the relative warming potentials,
incorporating the items just mentioned, and incorporating
evidence of the non-warming impacts of different gases, e.g.
benefits to agriculture from C02's impacts on plant
photosynthesis and water use efficiency, CFCs' impacts on
- 4 -
ozone depletion and hence on agriculture and other life, and
other gases' toxicity. Incorporation of these non-warming
impacts will likely require a multidisciplinary effort, and
is very important if policy measures are to avoid providing
incentives that lead to environmentally deleterious results.
Both of the CEES Working Groups will probably need to
work on these tasks. Given the importance of these tasks
for international policy discussions and their reliance on
both policy choices and scientific information, the MARS
might be the more appropriate group to lead the effort,
working in concert with the relevant sections of the CEES
Global Change Working Group. Within MARS, as appropriate,
either the Mitigation subgroup or the Implementation
Strategies subgroup could be designated to be the lead.
4. Economic and institutional analysis. Such analysis
includes:
(a) Researching market-based tools for mitigation and
adaptation. This includes the work the MARS group is
organizing to analyze the changes in technologies and
practices which might be used to mitigate or adapt to
climate change, in all sectors of socioeconomic activity.
But it also means understanding the institutional systems at
work -- markets, government policy, etc. -- that affect the
likelihood of such changes being invented, disseminated, and
adopted. This research will be invaluable to policy makers,
in order to present them with means to provide incentives
for least-cost, innovative, diverse and flexible responses
by decentralized market actors, rather than simply
generating a list of practices and technologies from which
government would select.
(b) Assessing the economic, social and environmental
costs and benefits of various policy options, including both
options proposed by the U.S. and options proposed by other
nations, for use in both domestic and international
discussions.
This work is already being discussed under the MARS'
Economics Subcommittee, and should be further pursued by its
Implementation Strategies subgroup and its Economics
Subcommittee.
- 5 -
We hope these suggestions will be incorporated in the
appropriate places in the MARS research plan and the FY 92
proposals. They are intended in large part to reflect the
research needs for sound development of any international policy
regarding potential global climate change, as suggested by the
Charter of the MARS Working Group.
Sincerely
few
Richard B. Stewart
Assistant Attorney General
CC: D. Allan Bromley
Relevant CEES-MARS subgroups
Members of Comperehensive/Trading Task Force
BusinessWeek
JUN 18 1990
FIRE AND WATER
WHERE THERE'S
SMOKE
"We believe that global environmental
nearly doubled this century, pushed by growth in
change may well be the most pressing
energy use and population.
international issue of the next century."
Added to these scaled-up sources of naturally
occurring gases is a modern, completely artificial
P.63
agent: chlorofluorocarbons. CFCs, which in the
his sentiment comes not from some small
stratosphere destroy Earth's ozone layer, in the
T
environmental sect, but from the presidents
lower atmosphere act as a heat-trapping gas more
of the National Academy of Sciences, the
than 10,000 times as effective as carbon dioxide,
National Academy of Engineering, and the
molecule for molecule. Atmospheric CFC levels are
Institute of Medicine. The problem is sim-
rising 5% per year.
ply stated, if profound: Human activity is
Altogether, the world added the equivalent of
altering the Earth's atmosphere in ways that could
6.5 billion tons of carbon-in the form of carbon
trigger climatic changes as dramatic as those associ-
dioxide or other heat-trapping gases-to the atmo-
ated with an ice age. Moreover, these changes could
sphere in 1987, the latest year for which complete
come far more swiftly than any natural climatic
figures are available.¹ That amounts to about 1.25
shift, altering the destiny of nations, causing human
tons of carbon for every man, woman, and child on
hardship, and wreaking ecological destruction.
the planet.
Not every citizen or every country of planet
CAUSES
Earth contributed equally, however. Industrial
The causes are in part ancient-human use of fire,
countries, those undergoing significant deforesta-
clearing of forests for crops, and tending of beasts
tion, and those with abundant rice paddies or farm
for food-but magnified by the scale of modern
animals contributed more. A new "Greenhouse
industrial civilization and its insatiable
Index"² that ranks countries based on
appetite for energy-and by human
emissions of heat-trapping gases finds
population growth. Energy use-our
the United States at the top of the list,
modern fire-has grown tenfold since
followed by the Soviet Union, Brazil,
1900, and we have relied primarily on
China, India, Japan, and Germany.
coal, oil, or natural gas. When burned,
Overall, industrial countries con-
these fossil fuels release carbon dioxide,
tributed 55% of the increase in the
which can trap heat and thus warm the
atmosphere's warming potential, but
atmosphere. Additional carbon dioxide
developing countries had a significant
comes from the clearing and burning of
share. It is, in other words, a truly
huge tracts of the world's tropical forests.
global problem.
Methane-from natural gas leaks,
from fermentation in rice paddies and
CONSEQUENCES
the stomachs of farm animals, and from
Higher temperatures can be a blessing
burning of forests and grasslands-is
or a curse, depending on where you
another heat-trapping gas, 20 to 30
live. To a dweller in an already swelter-
times more potent than carbon dioxide.
ing sunbelt city, the prospect of two or
Methane levels in the atmosphere have
three times as many 100-degree days is
CONTINUED
53
CONTINUED
BusinessWeek
JUN 8 1990
not a blessing. To a Canadian wheat farmer,
A panel of experts convened by the American
however, a longer growing season and
Association for the Advancement of Science
milder winters might be welcome. If
(AAAS) in a recent report concluded that global
global warming comes, however, temper-
warming would have a major impact on the distri-
ature will be but one of the consequences.
bution of water in the United States, with drier
Water shortages in some areas could be
summers in the interior of North America.
another.
Extremes, such as floods or droughts, are likely to
A shift to a warmer climate would
lead to the following:
bring major-but unpredictable-shifts
It will be hard to maintain present irrigation
in rainfall patterns, snowfall accumula-
levels in the arid West; spring floods will come earlier.
tion, and soil moisture. Overall, rainfall
Plants-including weeds-will grow faster
might increase as much as 10% with even
because of higher levels of carbon dioxide, which
modest global warming, but the distribu-
acts as a fertilizer.
tion would be highly unequal, with more
Costs will rise for the eight out of 10
precipitation in high and low latitudes in
Americans who depend on municipal
continental regions of the Northern
water systems.
Hemisphere, and less in the middle lati-
"Governments at all levels," the AAAS
tudes. Unfortunately, the middle latitudes
report states, "should re-evaluate legal,
are where the most intensive agriculture
technical, and economic procedures for
takes place. The result could be summer
managing water resources in light of the
conditions reminiscent of the Dust Bowl years in
climatic changes that are highly likely."
sections of the U.S. Great Plains and in parts of the
Worldwide, matters could be even
Soviet Union and Central Europe, with much heav-
more severe in regions already subject to
ier rain and river flooding in other regions.
water stress, defined by Swedish hydrol-
Duke University botany professor William
ogist Malin Falkenmark as the level of
Schlesinger says that the degree of global warming
scarcity reached when a society's per
projected for the next century, based on current
capita renewable water supply sinks
trends, might convert a significant portion of the
below 530,000 gallons per year. Ten countries in
world's grasslands into desert. "These changes may
Africa will probably reach this level-even without
affect regions that are far removed from arid lands
taking greenhouse effects into account-by the year
and possibly conditions of the entire planet," says
2000. Parched Egypt, where 55 million people
Schlesinger. "If the climate models are right, the
subsist on the waters of the Nile, is particularly vul-
breadbasket of this country will move north. Iowa,
nerable. Egyptian Foreign Minister,
Nebraska, and Kansas will become less productive,
Esmat Abdel Meguid, commenting on
and the wheat and corn belt will probably shift to
the relentless tug-of-war over water
southern Canada."
that is now taking place among Ethiopia,
A worst-case scenario, according to Schlesinger,
the Sudan, and Egypt, has said that
is that "a large portion of west Texas and eastern
"The next war in our region will be
Colorado will be permanently converted to desert
over the waters of the Nile, not politics."
shrub land of low productivity" that will no longer
Ironically, global warming could
be able to support agriculture or even serve as qual-
cause some islands and coasts to liter-
ity grazing lands.
ally drown, because of rising sea lev-
Major changes could also be expected in American
els. Water expands when it is heated;
forests. For example, spruce, fir, and pine trees might
such thermal expansion alone could
relocate from the upper Midwest to Canada. Daniel
create a one- or two-foot rise over the
B. Botkin, head of a study on the topic out of the
next century, and some climatologists
University of California at Santa Barbara, reported in
believe that melting of glaciers and the polar ice
1989 that "if the climate warms as rapidly as cur-
caps could add three to five feet more.
rently predicted, there will be visible and dramatic
Recently, some scientists have considerably mod-
changes in U.S. forests in our lifetimes."
erated the forecast for the sea level rise, based on
the observation that the polar ice caps seem to be
54
CONTINUED
EP A in the N
z2986vtnv.
r u bc-vt-environment 345ped sked 6-25 0392
(ill., iowa)
Kunin presses environmental issues with Bush
MONTPELIER, Vt. (UPI) - Vermont Gov. Madeleine Kunin took the
but for an international global warming policy to the White House Monday, case
returnedfrom the meeting with a mixed report.
Kunin, a Democrat, and Republican Governors Terry Branstad of
and and White James Thompson of Illinois met with Bush, EPA head William Reilly Iowa
House Chief of Staff John Sununu.
The three governors urged Bush to build a national and then
international 1 consensus on a plan to avoid a global warming trend. an
"The important thing is this is a consensus document and that
recognition is that we must act now and that the United States should the
said take a strong leadership role at the earliest possible date," Kunin
after emerging from the Washington meeting.
The governors were armed with a report calling for greater
conservation, of an international agreement on reductions in the production energy
The environmentally harmful gasses and the re-forestation of large areas.
the National Governor's Association.
report was prepared by Kunin and several other governors for
Some scientists believe manmade pollution is making the earth's
climate warmer, with potentially dire environmental consequences.
leadership role on the issue.
Kunin said she told Bush it is up to, the United States to take a -
carefully, but that Bush did not say exactly how he would use it.
Kunin said Bush told the governors he will consider their report
for national and international action because it represents a support
However, Kunin believes the report should be used to rally
developed realities. by diverse states with varied economic, energy and political consensus
with northeastern states worried about acid rain, believed to be
For example, coal-producing states signed onto the report along
midwest. by-product of emissions generated by coal-fired power stations in a the
"I think it's important to continue to give the president and-this
policy, particularly on the global arena," Kunin said.
administration ammunition to move forward on a very strong environmental
upi 06-25-90 03:50 ped
Cont.
chairman of the Congressional Fire Services Caucus. Weldon said the the Mega
The panel also heard testimony from Rep. Curt Weldon, R-Pa.,
accident "has pointed up the need to specifically address
Borg danger of fires aboard multi-million barrel oil tankers" in the spill
legislation before Congress.
The former firefighter said available technology might have
prevented the Mega Borg fire if regulations existed to require it on
commercial
ships. has technology today that we could require on commercial " Weldon
"The Navy that would detect and suppress these kinds of fires, all
vessels "Stricter controls for fire and safety are needed on
said. commercial ships, especially those under foreign flags."
upi 06-21-90 05:57 ped
end.
EPA in the News
USA TODAY MONDAY JUNE 25, 1990 3A
Govs offer global warming
goals
Use energy conservation
and heightened efficiency to
cut carbon dioxide emissions.
Options include taxing gas-guz-
zling autos and improving ap-
Report
pliance efficiency standards.
Stop producing chlorofluo-
rocarbons, used in air condi-
contains 7
tioners and other products, and
reduce the production of other
greenhouse gases, such as
methane and nitrous oxide.
proposals
Develop alternative ener-
gy systems, including clean
coal technologies, solar and
By Dennis Camire
geothermal energy, wind pow-
USA TODAY
er and safe nuclear power.
Plant more trees, which
The USA's governors today
absorb carbon dioxide, in both
give a reluctant President Bush
rural and urban areas.
seven "reasonable" goals to
Adapt to a changing cli-
greatly cut emissions of carbon
mate, with special emphasis on
dioxide, the main gas responsi-
problems related to sea-level
ble for global warming.
rise, water resources, agricul-
"We literally owe the habit-
ture and forestry.
ability of our planet to the phe-
Support research to elimi-
nomenon commonly known as
nate uncertainties about global
the greenhouse effect," says a
warming, including the cost
report by the National Gover-
and effectiveness of ways to
nors' Association.
deal with it.
Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad,
Dennis Camire writes for
president of the group, says in
Gannett News Service.
the report that, although uncer-
tainty exists about global
warming "and the costs of pre-
vention could be substantial,
we must take action."
The report's reception at the
White House is uncertain. In
February, Bush said more re-
search is needed before action
can be taken. His chief of staff,
John Sununu, has adamantly
opposed taking measures
against global warming.
But the U.N. commission
Bush said should be the sole au-
thority on the subject warned
last month that global warming
has begun and urgent mea-
sures should be taken to deal
with it. World average tem-
peratures will rise 5.4 degrees
before the end of the next cen-
tury, causing a yearly sea-level
rise of 2.3 inches a decade -
unless emissions are curbed.
The report urges the federal
government and the states to:
Develop an international
agreement to protect the air so
reductions in greenhouse gases
here would not be offset by in-
creases in other countries.
EPA in the News
The Washington Times
MONDAY. JUNE 25, 1990
PAGE F2
WARREN BROOKES
off $1 trillion trolling risk in the indoor radon environ- rip-
ment."
In short, we have here a replay of
Congress and the EPA's asbestos di-
risk associated with radon could be
saster, where billions are being mis-
controlled by eliminating smoking
spent because of a failure to accu-
centrations." without any changes in radon con-
Irrational
rately identify real risk. In that case
as well, much of the miscálculation
He estimates even the total cost of
of asbestos risk was failure to iden-
meeting present EPA standards of 4
tify the 88 percent role of smoking
picocuries per liter is about $20 bil-
toxic goal
in the original study of asbestos ex-
posure.
lion. He points out that "A reduction
At the heart of the radon risk
by about 3 percent in the number of
f Congress and the Environ-
problem is the fact that although the
cigarette smokers would reduce the
mental Protection Agency
current risk estimates project some
annual mortality due to lung cancer
I
16,000 cancer deaths from this
by the same amount as a radon-
get their way, American
homeowners will have to
source, "only 3 percent of this mor-
dards. mitigation program" at current stan-
spend $1 trillion to bring the
tality rate (about 500 cases) is pro-
jected to occur among individuals
As Mr. Nazaroff puts it, "From a
radon levels in their houses
who have never smoked." Even that
public-health perspective, the goal
down to natural background levels.
is based on models which deliber-
of reducing lung cancer incidence
Those levels are 70 percent lower
than even the present EPA danger
ately overstate risk by at least 10 to
may be more easily met by changing
100 times or more, suggesting an in-
the population's smoking habits
target and they are the ludicrous
significant public health risk.
rather than by aggressive measures
goal set by Congress as an amend-
ment to the 1988 Toxic Substances
The respected Journal of Health
tions." to reduce indoor radon concentra-
Control Act.
Physics will soon publish a study by
A paper in this month's Journal of
Dr. Linda Titus Ernstoff of the Uni-
This is reinforced by the work of
Environmental Science and Technol-
versity of Pittsburgh and Dr. Thom-
University of Pittsburgh radiation
as Gerusky of the Pennsylvania De-
physicist Bernard Cohen. He looked
ogy says: "The implications of mea-
partment of Health which shows
at 411 U.S. counties and discovered
sures needed to achieve this goal are
that among a sample of 800 resi-
the correlations between lung can-
staggering. Even if it is technically
dents of very high radon exposure
cer deaths and radon levels are on
feasible, the costs would be prohib-
itively large, on the order of $1 tril-
homes in the infamous "Reading
the average negative higher radon
levels are associated with lower lung
lion ($10,000 to $16,000 per house-
Prong" - 10 times the EPA danger
cancer deaths. A similar lack of cor-
hold times 70 million households)."
level - there was no evidence of
relation has been just reported in a
Yet, as the paper points out, less
raised lung cancer death rates.
study of more than 200,000 medical
than 3 percent of total risks of radon
Partly because of this kind of
records in Florida.
data, Pennsylvania has adopted an
exposure are among those who do
Mr. Nazaroff says, "It has not yet
not smoke. That's fewer than 500
official policy of offering profes-
been possible and will be difficult in
sional testing help only to those
people per year nationwide. Ninety-
the future to demonstrate a compel-
whose basement canister readings
ling association between environ-
seven percent comes from smoking
and radon. In other words, non-
are above 20 picocuries per liter.
mental radon exposure and lung
smokers make up 60 percent 6f
That's five times the EPA level of 4
cancer rates."-
the population but only 3 percent
picocuries per liter and is the same
In the March 1990 issue of
of the radon risk.
level now used in Canada to detect
Epidemiology, Fanny Ennever of the
The author of this paper is
possible remediation targets.
Case Western Reserve School of
William Nazaroff of Lawrence
The economic significance of this
Medicine says the lifetime risk of
Berkeley Laboratory at the
is huge. At 20 picocuries per liter,
lung cancer for someone never ex-
University of California. He
less than 80,000 U.S. homes would
posed to radon (at EPA danger lev-
and his colleague, Anthony
need radon mitigation at a cost of
els) and who has never smoked is 1.1
Nero, are generally regarded as the
about $150 million or about 0.1 per-
percent. That risk only rises to 1.5
nation's foremost experts on radon
cent of the cost of meeting the EPA's
percent from 40 years of exposure
risk and its mitigation.
current standard, which targets 8
to EPA's radon danger levels! By con-
million to 10 million homes. Mr.
trast, the lifetime risk for the full-
Mr. Nazaroff's paper is a scorch-
ing indictment of the EPA and Con-
Nazaroff also suggests that the
time smoker is 12.3 percent which
Canadian 20 picocuries per liter
rises to 15.8 percent with radon ex-
gress for a radon policy that "is de-
veloping without careful analysis of
level would make more sense.
posure. She concludes: "Ceasing to
the premises and objectives for con-
One reason, he says, is that "More
smoke is considerable more benefi-
than 90 percent of the lung-cancer
cial than easing radon exposure"
cont'd
and a whole lot less costly.
EPA in the Non
36
SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN July 1990
The Great Climate Debate
Greenhouse effect and the prospect of global warming is the
subject of scientific and political controversy. Should we take
steps now to avoid consequences we cannot foresee?
by Robert M. White
I
n the waning years of the 10th cen-
dangered Earth," as Time magazine
tween the urgings for action from the
tury, millions braced themselves
would have it in its 1988 year-end COV-
Environmental Protection Agency and
for the apocalypse, believing that
er story? Or is it as Forbes magazine
Congress and cautions from his SCI-
the approaching year 1000 was the
put it, "The Global Warming Panic: A
ence adviser and chief of staff, Presi-
very millennium-the end of the heav-
Classic Case of Overreaction"?
dent Bush called two major confer-
ens and the earth prophesied in the
Debate in the media reflects uncer-
ences to address the issue of climate
Bible's Book of Revelation. Not surpris-
tainty among climatologists and geo-
warming. The first, held in April,
ingly, the prospect of the impending
physicists. Some of the world's emi-
brought together the heads of scientif-
Day of Wrath terrified normally sane
nent authorities on the atmosphere re-
ic, economic and environmental agen-
people into rash and (in retrospect)
cently hurled verbal brickbats at one
cies of many governments. The second
foolish actions. Some gave away all of
another in the pages of the prestigious
will be an initial meeting of govern-
their possessions; others hastened to
journal Science. Their charges of "junk
ments, scheduled for early 1991, to be-
do harsh penance for their deeds.
science" and "science by consensus" re-
gin negotiation of an international con-
In this final decade of the 20th cen-
flect the acrimonious nature of the de-
vention to stabilize global climate.
tury, a different kind of apocalypse
bate within the scientific community.
causes widespread concern. This time
Some members of the National Acade-
W
hile there are still doubts in
the hand of God has been replaced by
my of Sciences, including one of its for-
the White House, Congress has
more visible agents: belching smoke-
mer presidents, charge that policymak-
been environmentally hyperac-
stacks, gasoline-powered automobiles,
ers are being induced to take unwise
tive. Many pieces of legislation have
power-generating stations and the vo-
actions on the basis of uncertain scien-
been introduced to address the pre-
racious destruction of forests, all of
tific evidence. Set against this view is
dicted climate warming. Leading the bi-
which may be turning up the heat on
the recent statement of the Union of
partisan effort have been Senator Tim-
an overburdened environment. Global
Concerned Scientists urging action by
othy E. Wirth of Colorado, Senator Al
climate warming, some claim, threat-
the government. It was signed by 52
Gore of Tennessee and Congresswom-
ens the very habitability of the planet.
Nobel laureates and more than 700
an Claudine Schneider of Rhode Island.
Others hold that the predictions of en-
members of the NAS.
Some of this legislation is comprehen-
vironmental collapse are not well
In spite of the scientific uncertain-
sive and far-reaching. It offers sugges-
founded and are goading us into hasty
ty, government and nongovernment
tions for action on the energy, agricul-
political action. Is our planet the "En-
groups are rushing to outdo one anoth-
ture and transportation fronts as well
er in urging drastic action now to "sta-
as for intensified research.
bilize" the global climate. From Wash-
The actions proposed would radical-
ROBERT M. WHITE is president of the
ington to Toronto and The Hague,
ly change the most vital functions of
National Academy of Engineering. He
from Cairo to Moscow, international
human economies. They could include
was formerly chief of the U.S. Weather
conferences of experts and political
such diverse actions as using energy
Bureau and administrator of the Nation-
leaders have called for action. Soviet
more efficiently, shifting the fossil-fuel
al Oceanic and Atmospheric Administra-
President Mikhail S. Gorbachev, Presi-
mix from oil and coal to natural gas, re-
tion. He has also served as president of
dent George Bush, British Prime Minis-
lying more heavily on renewable energy
both the University Corporation for At-
ter Margaret Thatcher and French Pres-
sources and using more nuclear and so-
mospheric Research and the American
ident François Mitterand share similar
Meteorological Society. In 1979 he was
lar energy. Measures could also include
chairman of the first World Climate
views on the climate-warming issue.
implementing reforestation, phasing
Conference of the World Meteorological
Back home, debate within the Bush
out use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFC's)
Organization.
administration on how the U.S. govern-
and changing agricultural practices.
ment should act is intense. Caught be-
Policy initiatives of this kind would
EPA in the
Centid
The measuring devices were placed
abe. Modest and retiring but complete-
in the Mauna Loa climate observ ato-
ly dedicated to the work, he developed
alter the technology and economics of
ry in Hawaii at an altitude of about 11,-
the first climate model in collaboration
energy. Our use of land and water
000 feet. Beginning in 1957. the data
with his colleague Richard T. Wetherald
would also need to change. Economic
they collected revealed a systematic in-
in the 1960's. In 1975 they calculated
growth in nations dependent on fossil
crease in atmospheric carbon dioxide.
that a doubling of the carbon dioxide
fuels might be slowed. And the prob-
Keeling's observations were verified at
content of the atmosphere would pro-
lems of arresting the growth of global
the South Pole and at other locations
duce a global climate warming of about
population would become even more
around the world. To date, the change
five degrees F (three degrees C), aver-
pressing. How can national and inter-
from 290 parts per million in 1880 to
aged over the surface of the earth. This
national policy formulation be moving
352 parts per million in 1989 repre-
calculation has been verified in many
so rapidly to address the specter of cli-
sents more than a 20 percent increase
different laboratories and has not
mate warming when agreement about
over the course of the past century.
changed substantially.
the science is lacking and the economic
Keeling's observations. together with
and social costs of action have hardly
J
ust before the International Geo-
the calculation of Manabe and Weth-
been tallied? At the root of this think-
physical Year began. on the oth-
erald, triggered the wave of climate-
ing is a confluence of diverse scientific,
er side of the continent from
change research that has marked the
economic and environmental forces.
Scripps, another development key
past two decades. Studies have since
The idea that the actions of humani-
to unraveling the climatic consequenc-
been undertaken in many parts of the
ty might change the composition of the
es of increasing carbon dioxide emis-
world, including Europe and the Soviet
atmosphere and hence the world's cli-
sions was taking place. Under the lead-
Union. In the U.S. the National Research
mate has deep historical roots. As early
ership of the world-famous mathemati-
Council conducted studies in 1966,
as the 1860's, it was suggested that
cian John von Neumann at the Institute
1977, 1979, 1983 and 1987. These in-
slight changes in atmospheric compo-
for Advanced Study in Princeton, N.J.,
quiries were chaired by such leading
sition might bring about major varia-
the first attempts were made to repre-
scientists as Gordon J. F. MacDonald,
tions in climate. Increases in carbon
sent the atmosphere mathematically
Revelle, Thomas F. Malone, Charney,
dioxide (CO2) and other atmospheric
on digital computers.
William A. Nierenberg and economist
trace gases can contribute to what has
Von Neumann's team of brilliant
William D. Nordhaus.
been called greenhouse warming be-
young scientists was headed by Jule G.
Yet because there were no immedi-
cause these compounds allow the sun's
Charney. Later known as the father of
ate consequences for human health
energy to reach the surface of the
numerical weather prediction and ar-
and no evident manifestation of cli-
earth. thereby warming it, while pre-
guably the most important American
mate change, the work was slow to
figure in the transformation of weather
arouse political concern. The most po-
venting much of that energy from be-
ing reradiated to outer space.
prediction from art to science, Charney
litically influential study was the one
demonstrated the feasibility of using
prepared in 1979 at the request of
At the end of the 19th century the
Swedish scientist Svante A. Arrhenius
computers to perform the task. Von
Frank Press, now president of the NAS,
Neumann and Charney calculated the
who was then White House science ad-
calculated how changes in carbon diox-
ide content would affect the tempera-
first 24-hour weather forecast in 1950
viser to President Jimmy Carter. It was
also in 1979 that the World Meteoro-
ture at the earth's surface. He estimat-
on a primitive digital computer, the
logical Organization in Geneva, recog-
ed that a doubling of carbon dioxide
ENLAC, maintained by the U.S. Army
Signal Corps in New Jersey.
nizing the potential global significance
would produce a global warming of
Looking beyond these efforts, von
of the issue, convened the first World
about seven to 11 degrees Fahrenheit
Climate Conference.
(four to six degrees Celsius), not too far
Neumann called climate forecasting the
off modern calculations. Yet it was only
"infinite prediction." One of the young
Gradually, scientific awareness that
with the inception of the International
scientists in the Princeton group, Nor-
humanity might actually be causing a
Geophysical Year, a worldwide ex-
man Phillips, made the first attempt
planetary disruption began to register
periment in 1957 to monitor the global
at modeling the global atmosphere in
in the political world. Although there
environment. that scientific data validat-
1956. It was coincidence that later, in
was much debate over the validity
ing the increase of carbon dioxide in
1963, an unusual laboratory of the Na-
of projections from computer models,
the atmosphere became available.
tional Oceanic and Atmospheric Ad-
the observations of greenhouse-gas in-
Roger Revelle, then director of the
ministration (NOAA) was established
creases, however, were precise, well
Scripps Institution of Oceanography,
on the campus of Princeton University
measured and verified in many parts
under the leadership of Joseph Sma-
of the world. These were corroborated
his colleague Hans E. Suess and C. Da-
gorinsky, a strong-willed and hard-driv-
by additional data that documented in-
vid Keeling, his student, undertook
such measurements. Revelle had long
ing young scientist who had been one
creases in other greenhouse gases such
contended that humans were carrying
of von Neumann's group. The laborato-
as methane, or natural gas, and CFC's.
ry was totally devoted to the mathe-
out an unintended geophysical experi-
ment on the atmosphere by burning
matical modeling of the atmosphere
fossil fuels. Determined to monitor the
using the largest and fastest digital
M
eanwhile mathematical-model-
ing groups in this country had
carbon dioxide content of the atmos-
computers available.
been established not only by
phere, he persuaded Keeling to develop
Called the Geophysical Fluid Dynam-
the NOAA but also by the National
the instrumentation.
ics Laboratory, the center harbored re-
Aeronautics and Space Administration,
searchers from many nations interest-
the Department of Energy and the Na-
ed in this new approach to the study of
tional Science Foundation. The leaders
the atmosphere. Among them was a
of these laboratories became the "gu-
young Japanese scientist, Syukuro Man-
rus" of climate warming. Incisive and
original in their work, Stephen H.
con
EPA in the New
cont
puters are used to make these pro-
the levels of confidence they should
jections can be forgiven for being
have and levels of confidence they want
confused-o even annoyed-by the
to have. \ system is not valid just be.
Schneider of the NSF'S National Center
great disparities in the results. Among
for Atmospheric Research in Boulder,
cause 11 gives you the answers you
investigators it is understood that
Colo., and James E. Hansen, the leader
want. And yet so much policy is being
mathematical models are only approxi-
made in reaction to that principle.
of NASA'S Goddard Institute for Space
mations that attempt to simulate the
Studies, were soon to become frequent
processes that govern atmospheric be-
The solution to the dilemma should
witnesses at innumerable congression-
havior. The atmosphere is so complex
be simple: Since the carbon dioxide
al committee hearings on the subject.
that it is impossible to represent it in
content of the atmosphere has in-
Although the mathematical models
very great detail in these mathemati-
creased by more than 20 percent over
of all the groups yielded similar re-
cal models. It is possible to represent
the past century. we ought to be able to
sults, the details of the geographic dis-
only certain features and to make as-
tribution of climate changes differed
detect the climate warming in the glob-
sumptions about how the oceans and
al temperature record during the same
from one model to the other. All pro-
the atmosphere interact, how the rate
jected that an increase in carbon di-
period. Researchers have sought to do
oxide would bring about a gradual
at which the oceans take up carbon
this, but it is a much more difficult task
dioxide varies and how clouds affect
than it first appears. The problem is
warming, but the timing of this warm-
the exchange of energy between the
that climate is always in a state of nat-
ing would depend on the rate of glob-
al energy use. They all agreed that
earth and the atmosphere. Even the
ural fluctuation. Separating out the
largest computers cannot represent the
changes that are caused by increasing
if reasonable assumptions were made
atmosphere, oceans and land surface
carbon dioxide from the natural chang-
about future global energy consump-
in fine detail. Indeed, scientists ap-
es is tricky scientific business. More-
tion, it would be around the middle of
proximate the conditions in the atmos-
over, the climatic temperature record
the next century that the carbon diox-
phere by thinking of it as a set of ob-
is based on scattered and irregular
ide content of the atmosphere might
servations spaced about 500 kilome-
observations not taken specifically for
double.
ters apart.
the purposes of determining climatic
Just how much this doubling of car-
conditions.
bon dioxide would increase tempera-
he political calls for action are
Even so, careful analysis of these
tures, however, varied greatly from
model to model. Some predicted as lit-
T
being played out against the
temperature records by scientists in
backdrop of that uncertainty. On
the U.S. and in the U.K. sought to de-
tle as a two-degree F (one-degree C) in-
one side, the view is that if there is a
tect whether a climate warming has OC-
crease, whereas others predicted in-
chance that model predictions could be
curred and whether such warming is
creases of as much as nine degrees F
correct, the consequences could be so
consistent with the prediction of the
(five degrees C). The differences in pre-
dire that immediate action to arrest cli-
models. The prevailing view is that the
dictions became central elements in
mate change would be imperative. The
climatic record over the past century
the debate about whether the models
alternative view, equally cogent, is that
for the entire globe reveals a net in-
were sufficiently reliable to warrant
commitment to action with vast eco-
crease in temperature ranging from .5
policy actions. Further, it made a great
nomic and social consequences is un-
to 1.0 degree F (from .3 to .8 degree C).
difference whether the actual increase
warranted in light of both the scientific
But set against this conclusion is the
was at one or the other end of this
uncertainty and the absence of knowl-
disturbing result that similar increases
range. At the low end, the normal re-
edge of the economic costs. John H. Su-
in temperature cannot be detected over
silience of society would probably be
nunu, White House chief of staff, in re-
the past century in the U.S., where ob-
sufficient to accommodate the changed
marks he made at the annual meeting
servations are numerous and accurate.
climate. Changes at the high end por-
of the National Academy of Engineer-
Even if the temperature rise is real, a
tended severe disruptions.
ing in the fall of 1989 gave voice to this
puzzle remains that workers have been
These projected temperature chang-
position:
unable to unravel: Is the rise in global
es may appear innocuous because var-
temperatures a natural fluctuation or a
iations of this magnitude are experi-
Although I agree that (global warming|
result of the increase in greenhouse
enced in the normal course of daily
is a critical issue, the fact is that the
gases? All that can be said is that the
and seasonal weather. Their full impli-
models with which analysis is being
observed increase is consistent with
cations can be appreciated by noting
done and with which policy is being
the lower end of the temperature in-
that it took only a two-degree F average
moved. as good as they may be, still are
creases predicted by the computer
decrease in temperatures in Europe to
based on element sizes measured in
models. Consequently, the temperature
cause the run of several frigid cen-
hundreds of kilometers in length and
records, as well as the predictions of
turies (from the 1400's to the 1800's)
width, and tens of kilometers in thick-
mathematical models, provide sub-
known as the Little Ice Age. Nine de-
ness. I suspect that no one who has ever
stance both to those who believe the
grees F is believed to be the difference
been involved in engineering simulation
evidence warrants action now and to
in temperature that separates the end
would feel comfortable making major
those who believe the evidence is still
of the last great ice age 12,000 years
too weak.
ago from the present. Further, the pro-
decisions in which the elements were or.
The rush to policy action was, I
jections indicate that the Northern
ders of magnitude greater than the de-
believe, catalyzed by the disastrous
Hemisphere would experience in just a
tails on which they were looking for in-
drought of the summer of 1988. Dur-
half century an unprecedented temper-
formation. And yet the fact is that we
ing this drought, one of the worst on
ature change, 10 to 50 times faster
are moving toward binding internation-
record, the water in the Mississippi Riv-
than the change since the last ice age.
al policy based on conclusions being
er fell so low that navigation was im-
Those who are not familiar with
drawn by policymakers who have no
possible over long stretches, urban wa-
sense at all of the difference between
mathematical models or the way com-
ter supplies were threatened and crops
Cont
EPA in the
cont'd
been proved wrong many times before.
vision non-fossil-fuel sources. Here at
As long ago as 1924, Sir Gilbert Walker,
last is justification that proponents of
throughout the grain belt were devas-
then head of the British government's
nuclear power can forcefully advance
tated. Both officials and the public
Indian weather service. discerned un-
to support expansion of nuclear power
usually close connections between rain-
facilities throughout the world.
wondered whether this was the green-
house effect manifest. Indeed, records
fall, temperature and pressures in the
The issue of global climate warming
show that in the U.S. five of the years
Pacific Ocean and the Indian subconti-
also offers an opportunity for advanc-
of the 1980's were among the hottest
nent. Claims were made that the prob-
ing the "new economic order" long ad-
lem of forecasting the Indian monsoon
vocated by Third World nations. Inter-
on record, and the average tempera-
ture for the decade as a whole was the
was solved. Were it true, it would have
national action will require technologi-
warmest since instrumental records
been a great boon to Indian agriculture.
cal and economic assistance to such
have been kept.
But it was soon recognized that the
nations if they are to participate in a
correlations had little predictive power.
global effort to reduce atmospheric
Later, in the 1940's and 1950's,
pollution or arrest deforestation. In
P
rompted by heat and drought,
congressional hearings addressed
widespread claims were made, based
fact, the world faces the prospect that
on the work of the late Irving Lang-
the greatest increases in emissions of
the question of whether the green-
house effect had arrived. These hear-
muir, Nobel laureate from the General
carbon dioxide will occur in developing
ings were unremarkable except for a
Electric Company, and Vincent J. Schae-
countries as their need for economic
fer of the State University of New York
growth is followed by increased de-
statement by Hansen. When he stated
that he was 99 percent certain that the
at Albany, that seeding clouds with dry
mand for energy.
ice or crystals of silver iodide could
In like manner, those interested in
greenhouse warming had begun, as evi-
denced by the sequence of warm years
bring about an increase in rainfall. Sev-
arresting population growth, especially
in the 1980's, the public took notice.
eral decades of research into the possi-
in the Third World, point out that the
His opinion prompted members of
climate-warming problem is probably
bilities of increasing rainfall, changing
not solvable as long as the number of
Congress to consider whether the pru-
the intensity of hurricanes and modify-
human beings continues to rise. After
dent course was to move rapidly to leg-
ing hailstorms by cloud-seeding tech-
all, it is people who consume natural
islation aimed at protecting the habit-
niques proved abortive.
resources and energy and who farm
ability of the planet from catastrophic
Then, in the early 1980's, it was pos-
the land. Without population control,
consequences.
tulated that dust thrown into the at-
Hearings followed hearings. Both the
mosphere by a nuclear exchange be-
prospects for stabilizing the climate
atmospheric researchers and the more
tween the Soviet Union and the U.S.
and arresting the deterioration of the
general environmental community be-
would result in a "nuclear winter." This
habitability of the planet are abysmal.
gan to choose sides on whether imme-
idea was deflated by Schneider and his
diate policy action was justified. The
colleague Stanley L. Thompson, who
A
re the consequences of climate
reaction from environmentalists was
showed with the same models used in
warming to be feared? People
quick and vociferous. Several environ-
the prediction of climate that the "ini-
experience extremes of temper-
mental and scientific groups began to
tial nuclear winter hypothesis can now
ature in the natural course of events.
advocate international agreements re-
be relegated to a vanishingly low level
The fact is that we do not know
stricting the emissions of greenhouse
of probability."
enough to predict the severity of the
gases.
Given this "cry wolf" history, it is not
consequences. Because the warming
At this point, some influential atmos-
surprising that many meteorologists
would not be uniform over the surface
pheric researchers, who believed that
harbor deep reservations about taking
of the earth, it would probably produce
policy actions were beginning to out-
costly actions on the basis of the pre-
both winners and losers among regions
run the scientific evidence, weighed in
dictions of a climate warming. But the
and nations. Some parts of the earth
with their views. Richard S. Lindzen of
push for policy has other constituents.
would become warmer, some wetter
the Massachusetts Institute of Technol-
Climate warming also unites those who
and some drier. It is not possible on
ogy and Jerome Namias of Scripps, the
the basis of the evidence at hand to
are concerned about biodiversity and
nation's most distinguished long-range
predict who would benefit and who
species extinction, economic develop-
weather-forecasting expert, wrote a let-
would lose in such a global redistribu-
ment, human population growth, ur-
ter to President Bush urging that no
tion of so-called climatic resources.
ban air pollution, acid precipitation
action be taken. Three other members
Some aspects of global climate warm-
and ozone depletion.
of the NAS, including its former pres
ing would be greatly beneficial in the
Political leaders stimulated by public
ident Frederick Seitz, joined in a re-
view of agricultural researchers. In-
port, published under the auspices
concerns about environmental deterio-
creased carbon dioxide will foster more
of the Marshall Institute, calling into
ration see these issues as important
active photosynthesis and enhance crop
question the scientific basis for poli-
platforms and as springboards to pub-
growth, to say nothing about the low-
cy actions. They recommended a ma-
lic office. Those interested in increasing
ered plant requirements for water in
jor research program in mathematical
the competitiveness of American in-
a CO2-enhanced atmosphere. In the
modeling. They pointed out that there
dustry see greater energy efficiency as
words of Jerry D. Mahlman, director
might be alternative explanations for
an important step toward that goal. It
of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab-
the climate warming that had taken
also serves the interest of those con-
oratory, "The things we can say with
place. Thus, the great climate debate
cerned about U.S. dependence on for-
confidence, the policymakers are not
had been joined.
eign energy sources. The issue of nu-
interested in. And the things [they]
Meteorologists did not look with fa-
clear power is also underscored. Be-
are interested in, we don't know with
vor on the prospect of yet another pub-
cause fossil fuels are the main source
confidence."
of atmospheric carbon dioxide, strat-
Models do, however, agree that the
lic debate involving their field: they had
egies for stabilizing climate must en-
polar regions of the world would un-
Cent
dergo greater increases in temperature
EPA in the
correa
Present cities with their great suburban
HUMAN ACTIVITIES THAT MAY CAUSE GLOBAL WARMING
sprawl are not energy efficient, and
SO we might return to more compact
ENERGY USE
cities. If we chose to maintain agricul-
AND PRODUCTION
ture in dry areas, society would need to
CHLOROFLUORO-
decide whether to invest in the nec-
CARBONS
essary irrigation systems. In fact, the
economic growth of the entire west-
AGRICULTURE
ern part of the U.S. has been based on
major investments in water storage
LAND-USE
and transport for irrigation and indus-
MODIFICATION
trial use.
OTHER
Fortunately, time may for once be
INDUSTRIAL
on our side. Governments generally act
only when threats become real. They
act in the face of military threats or
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
when areas are endangered and de-
CONTRIBUTION TO GLOBAL WARMING (PERCENT)
stroyed by natural disasters. If the cli-
mate changes, the expectation is that it
will do so gradually. We should be able
THE CHANCING PATTERN OF GLOBALE
DIOXIDE EMISSIONS
to see the initial evidence of coastal in-
OTHER
undation in an increasing frequency
6%
of high tides and in the undercutting
of seacoasts. Climate warming itself
WESTERN
OTHER
EUROPE
4%
NORTH AMERICA
should be evident in a rising frequen-
17%
27%
cy of heat waves or in other weather
WESTERN
EUROPE
anomalies. The effects of a global cli-
23%
mate warming are likely to take 30 to
NORTH
ASIA
50 years to become serious, and that
AMERICA
9%
ASIA
45%
is a long enough span in which ac-
1%
DEVELOPING
COUNTRIES
tions to adapt to these changes should
U.S.S.R.,
12%
EASTERN EUROPE
be possible.
18%
JAPAN,
DEVELOPING
AUSTRALIA
COUNTRIES
U.S.S.R.,
JAPAN,
What of the debate in the atmospher-
3%
6%
EASTERN EUROPE
AUSTRALIA
24%
6%
ic, environmental and political com-
1950
munities? Our global environment is
1980
1,618 MILLION TONS
under attack on many fronts. Climate
5,170 MILLION TONS
warming is but one. perhaps the most
complex, of these issues. If the changes
occurring in our atmosphere are likely
to cause consequences, we must under-
stand the problems and promote sen-
sible policies to remedy them. What
would be unwise is to lapse into apoc-
alyptic thinking or ostrichlike denial.
We like to believe ourselves far more
sophisticated, more enlightened, than
preceding generations. Until we can
calmly and objectively approach our
environmental challenges without pro-
moting public hysteria and exciting
shortsighted, self-interested reaction,
we cannot claim that we are.
CTED GRO
THE
CARBOR
DIOXIDE
Co
EPA in the New
Contid
Such scenarios can suggest apocalyp-
tic possibilities. A recent film in the In-
able for more efficient power genera-
than would the tropics. Some of the
finite Voyage television series showed
tion and for increased gasoline mileage.
projections of temperature increases in
the U.S. Capitol under water as the re-
polar areas are startling in their magni-
sult of one possible climate-warming
W
isdom would also dictate
tude, predicting as much as 18 degrees
scenario. Some foresee vast migrations
major investments in non-
of people as areas of the world become
fossil-energy sources. The cir-
F (10 degrees C) on the average in the
uninhabitable. Others see threats to na-
cumstances favor significant new in-
Northern Hemisphere and only slight
tional sovereignty and national securi-
vestments in passively safe, publicly
increases in tropical regions.
ty. President Gorbachev has stated that
acceptable nuclear power. Further de-
What are the general consequences
ecological security, not military secur-
velopment of forms of solar energy-
of such a change in the temperature
ity, will be the principal concern of
photovoltaics or biomass, for exam-
difference between equatorial and po-
ple-makes good sense. Reforestation
lar regions? We experience similar dif-
all nations in the next century as en-
and forest preservation constitute a be-
ferences even year as the seasons
vironmental conditions cause disrup-
nign policy that yields many ecological
change. In summer when arctic tem-
tions worldwide.
and climatic benefits. Research aimed
peratures are warm, we do not suffer
But scenarios should be qualified
at producing stress- and disease-resis-
the great storms of winter: precipita-
with the caveat that although the events
tant crops would also be wise.
tion belts move farther north. Areas
portrayed might in some cases be plau-
The public, however, must not be
sible, they are not real predictions.
such as the southwestern part of the
What, then, is a wise course in the face
misled. These no-regrets initial policy
U.S. experience very dry conditions.
of great uncertainty? Clearly, it would
steps will not solve the climate-warm-
If arctic regions were to undergo sig-
be one that recognized uncertainty but
ing problem. Their effectiveness will
nificantly greater warming than equa-
would not permit that uncertainty to
only modestly retard climate warming,
torial regions and if precipitation belts
forestall action. Steps for which oth-
and the future may require more dras-
were to move farther north, countries
er economic and environmental rea-
tic actions. No matter what policy ac-
in the north temperate and polar zones
sons make sense would be taken first,
tions we take, fully arresting the cli-
would probably stand to benefit great-
whether or not a climate warming is
mate warming just does not seem to be
ly. Their growing season would length-
in the cards.
taking place [see "The Changing Cli-
en, and their precipitation would in-
mate," by Stephen H. Schneider: SCIEN-
The difficulties of reaching an inter-
crease. With suitable soils, agriculture
national agreement on procedures for
TIFIC AMERICAN, September. 19891.
might thrive. These are speculations,
Then, as scientific knowledge re-
mitigating climate warming will be dif-
however.
duced uncertainties, more costly meas-
ficult and lengthy. The negotiations for
ures could be taken if warranted. hence
the Law of the Sea Treaty provide a
S
uch speculations are formulated
closely tying policy actions to the state
good lesson. They consumed 15 years
in "scenarios" asking the ques-
and produced a treaty that the U.S. has
of knowledge. Scientists and others
tion. What if? Unfortunately, an
have called this a "no regrets" policy.
yet to sign because of demands by de-
infinite number of such "what if" ques-
veloping nations for significant tech-
In gambling it would be known as
tions may be asked. What if the flow
nology transfer and economic assis-
"spreading your bets."
of rivers in the American Southwest, al-
tance. These issues will be even more
A recent report of the Council of Eco-
ready fully utilized, were to be reduced
complicated and more pervasive in any
by 20 percent? What if temperatures
nomic Advisers lends weight to this ap-
"Law of the Atmosphere Treaty."
proach. It states that the cost of con-
were to increase in the corn belt and
It is likely that humanity will have to
trolling carbon dioxide emissions and
precipitation were to move farther
adapt to some climate changes. Modes
of taking other actions to address cli-
of adaptation by society have not been
north? What, then, would be the conse-
mate change would run into hundreds
well studied. Individuals, corporations
quences in the U.S. for agriculture. for
of billions of dollars. Because such real-
and communities can adapt to climatic
resource availability. for energy genera-
locations of resources raise the spec-
vicissitudes in myriad ways. Farmers
tion, for national parks and conserva-
ter of grave economic consequences,
can change crops, water use can be reg-
tion of nature?
we need to be reasonably sure such ac-
ulated and management practices can
The consequences of changed cli-
tions are worth the cost. Any rational
be altered.
mates can be seen in historical records
no-regrets policy would foster as one
going back thousands of years, and
of its prime objectives adequate invest-
Other modes of adaptation would
we have seen them in recent climatic
ment by governments in global moni-
be needed if climate changes were
events. We know, for example. that the
toring and mathematical modeling to
severe. Sea-level rise, which is one
Danes were able to settle Greenland
reduce the scientific uncertainties.
of the predicted concomitants of a cli-
and the Vikings to sail the North At-
Where might we start? Energy con-
mate warming, might inundate low-ly-
lantic to North America during a period
servation and efficiency along with the
ing coastal areas and cause salt water
of warm climate around the year 1000.
phaseout of CFC production would be
to intrude into freshwater bodies. Were
Then a significant change in climate
the first priority for national and inter-
this to occur, society would have to
caused the collapse of the Danish set-
national action. Achieving greater ener-
decide whether to invest in protective
tlements, prevented further explora-
gy efficiency justifies itself handily in
structures along coasts or adapt by
tion of the North American continent
changing land-use patterns. The North
economic terms. Increased energy effi-
and ushered in the Little Ice Age. In
Sea dikes in the Netherlands are an
ciency would also ameliorate urban air
just the past few years we have wit-
outstanding example of adaptation to
pollution and acid precipitation. Shifts
relative rise in sea level.
nessed the effects of drought in the
in the fossil-fuel mix from coal and
Some adaptations would take consid-
Sahel region of Africa and northeast
oil to natural gas could significantly
Brazil, as well as in parts of North
erable time to implement. If the price
reduce carbon dioxide emissions per
America.
of energy were to escalate, energy-effi-
thermal unit. Technology is also avail-
cient habitations would be necessary.
Cont
EPA in the New
Cont d
WHAT THREE COMPUTER MODELS OF CLIMATE CHANGE PREDICT
All models assume a doubling of global CO2
8
4
ANNUAL
GODDARD INSTITUTE
ANNUAL
TEMPERATURE
FOR SPACE STUDIES
RAINFALL
7
.3
\
GEOPHYSICAL FLUID
DYNAMICS LABORATORY
6
OREGON STATE UNIVERSITY
POTENTIAL CHANGE (KELVINS)
5
LIMETERS PER DAY)
.2
.1
4
3
Z
1
0
GREAT SOUTHEAST C EAT
to
CREAT GRITHEAST GREAT CALIFORNIA LOWER
LAKES
PLAINS
48 STATES
THE RISE IN ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE
353
350
DENTRATION (PARTS PER MILLION)
345
10
335
www.mm
3302
Fluctuations reflect seasonal variation.
Summertime low is caused by uptake of
CO2 by plants. Data were collected at
the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii.
40%
1990
cont'
EPA in the Net
Come
a
36
The Great Climate Debate
Robert M. White
There is no doubt that human activity is increasing the amount of carbon
dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Whether that spells
sweeping global climate change is still much debated. Should we act to blunt
the impact in the face of this uncertainty? The author thinks SO.
46
Homeobox Genes and the Vertebrate Body Plan
Eddy M. De Robertis, Guillermo Oliver and Christopher V.E. Wright
What tells some embryonic cells to become limbs and other seemingly identical
cells to form complex organs? It is a fascinating group of genes with a common
feature called the homeobox. Key to development in many animals, these genes
are remarkably similar in fruit flies, frogs-and humans.
54
The LEP Collider
Stephen Myers and Emilio Picasso
Until the U.S. builds its Superconducting Supercollider, Europe's Large
Electron-Positron Collider is the big gun in particle physics. Almost from
the very start in July, 1989, the LEP has produced important results. The
design and construction of this giant research tool is a story in its own right.
62
What Causes Diabetes?
Mark A. Atkinson and Noel K. Maclaren
With insulin injections, the diagnosis of type I diabetes is no longer a death
INCREASED
sentence. But this treatment is not a cure. A new understanding of how the
EXPRESSION
immune system is turned against the body's own insulin-producing cells is
pointing to ways this devastating disease may one day be prevented- or halted.
72
TRENDS IN AEROSPACE
The New Space Race
Elizabeth Corcoran and Tim Beardsley
This time around the prize is not military supremacy-it's market share. The
U.S., Europe, the Soviet Union, China and Japan are competing intensely for
the satellite-launch business. The front-runners will be those nations that apply
fuel chemistry, materials science and electronics to engineer less expensive
ways to reach orbit. There aren't enough payloads to go around, and the
prospect of manufacturing in space is still elusive. So the contest won't be over
until researchers discover what-if anything-is commercially viable in space.
und
EPA in the News
LOS
ANGI
TIMES
MONDAY,
not want to give the results away
JULY
2,
1990
A1
to Third World nations and enable
Ozone Victory
them to build plants and undercut
Differences in how nations view
sales.
environmental problems, and the
Developing nations say they are
Spurs War on
unequal sharing of the costs and
burdened by foreign debt and can-
benefits of international accords,
not forever be buying products
complicate environmental diplo-
from the West. They want to make
Global Heating
macy.
the products themselves. If they
Should a nation go along with
cannot, they will not join in the
efforts to allay the greenhouse
fight to save the ozone layer.
By LARRY B. STAMMER
effect if it knows that global
TIMES ENVIRONMENTAL WRITER
warming might bring it more
I
t was a dilemma that India's
abundant harvests? Should poor
environment minister, Maneka
LONDON-For 10 days last
nations struggling to raise their
Gandhi, said is certain to dog future
month, delegates from nearly 100
standards of living spend money to
negotiations involving global
nations labored on the banks of the
reduce ozone depletion SO that
warming.
River Thames across from Parlia-
fair-skinned Europeans don't get
"Either you [sell us] the technol-
ment to write a new chapter in
skin cancer?
ogy or you change your laws or
environmental diplomacy.
The theory of global warming
you change your patent rights,"
They succeeded.
holds that increased concentra-
she said. "Start working on it! This
Agreement was reached on un-
tions of carbon dioxide, produced
is a new century coming up in
precedented amendments to the
mostly by the burning of fossil
which every single conference
Montreal Protocol binding the in-
fuels, have produced a so-called
which will take place is going to
dustrialized West and developing
greenhouse effect in which the
take place for survival."
nations in a single global cause-
Earth's surface traps more of the
Gandhi referred. to global
protection of the Earth's eroding
sun's rays, raising global tempera-
warming and the new technologies
ozone layer.
tures. This will lead to such things
that will be needed to reduce
But even before the ink dried on
as rising sea levels and the spread
emissions of carbon dioxide, a ma-
the new accord, world leaders were
jor greenhouse gas.
looking ahead to a major interna-
of disease, it is feared.
"In every case it will involve a
tional conference scheduled for
While few participants in the
transfer of knowledge," she said.
1992 in Brazil to fashion a broad
London conference doubted the
"The whole 21st Century's surviv-
framework treaty to address an
genuine concern over the Earth's
al will be based on the [transfer] of
even more daunting environmental
deteriorating environment, success
knowledge."
threat-global warming.
in strengthening the Montreal Pro-
Negotiators settled on somewhat
"We have established here the
tocol was possible largely because
vague language that, at least for
model for the way in which we're
practical substitutes for ozone-de-
the moment, appeared to resolve
going to have to carry out future
stroying substances are near.
the dispute.
environmental diplomacy
[to]
T
But the drafting of a global-
save this small and fragile planet,"
here are comparatively few
warming treaty will present far
declared Chris Patten, Britain's
ozone-destroying substances.
They include man-made cool-
greater obstacles, in part because
environmental secretary.
the phenomenon, unlike ozone de-
Equally enthusiastic was Mosta-
ants-called chlorofluorocarbons
pletion, has no single cause.
fa K. Tolba, who, as executive
(CFCs) in air conditioning
To turn down the temperature
director of the U.N. Environment
and refrigeration, as blowing
on global warming will get at the
Program, shepherded the negotia-
agents in foam manufacturing and
very heart of national economies.
as solvents.
tions here to a successful conclu-
The greatest single contribution
sion.
Chemical manufacturers in the
to global warming is carbon dioxide
"We are starting a new era of not
United States and Europe are well
emissions, which come from the
only cooperation but, really, part-
on their way to developing and
burning of fossil fuels like coal,
nership," Tolba said. "What we
marketing substitutes, known as
gasoline and oil-the energy of
have been aspiring for has come
HCFCs, that are only one-tenth as
modern society and the fuels that
true in a legally binding treaty."
damaging to the ozone layer.
the Third World counts on to raise
But that achievement, signifi-
And while it is relatively simple
standards of living.
cant as it was, pales by comparison
to address a single issue such as
Will people drive less or use less
with the hard work that lies ahead
ozone depletion, the agreement
energy to heat their homes? Will
in fashioning a treaty on global
nearly came unraveled over the
the Third World turn aside the
warming.
issue of how industrialized nations
demands of burgeoning popula-
Diplomats caution that the world
would transfer that technology to
tions for a higher living standard?
has not yet entered the era sought
the Third World.
William K. Reilly, chief of the
by environmental gadfly Jeremy
The question: When does the
U.S. Environmental Protection
Rifkin, who has called for a new
need to protect the world's envi-
Agency and head of the American
politics that is "species-oriented
ronment take precedence over pri-
delegation, said that global
instead of ideologically oriented."
vate property rights-in this case
warming will put environmental
the right to protect patented HCFC
diplomacy to a severe test.
T
here is much to suggest that
technology?
"These are enormously compli-
even though the world may be
Manufacturers say that after in-
cated issues," Reilly said in an
confronted by a common threat, its
vesting millions of dollars in re-
interview. "They have nuances
peoples may not pull together to
search and development of pat-
that involve economic advantage
meet that threat.
ented HCFC alternatives. they do
for countries.
We're dealing
cont'd
EPA in the News
A14 THE NEW YORK TIMES, MONDAY, JULY 2, 1990
Plant Trees. Then Protect Them.
Global warming poses an uncommon threat to
trees gave his life new meaning. He obtained seed-
life on the planet, but what can ordinary people do
lings from the California Forestry Division and pri-
about it? Plant a tree. This requires a shovel, a
vate nurseries and organized volunteers to plant
stake - in the ground and the future - and a seed-
and adopt trees.
ling. If people live in an urban hardscape, they may
Planting a tree is not, ultimately, so simple,
want to follow the advice of Andy Lipkis, founder of
says this bearded latter-day Johnny Appleseed.
a growing California organization called TreePeo-
Nurturing, watering and pruning require a commit-
ple, who has prompted the planting of a million
ment of years. President Bush has joined the effort.
trees in Los Angeles.
He talks about planting a billion trees a year, but
Plant a tree by your apartment building, shop
there is no long-term commitment to maintain
or school. Better yet, consider becoming a citizen
them.
forester - volunteers trained in the art of arboreal
He and other politicians would be wise to note
skills like getting city permits, breaking concrete
what has happened in the Olympic Forest in Los An-
and protecting young trees from vandals.
geles. Trees from all over the world were planted by
In 1970, when he was 15, Andy Lipkis watched
local government with political fanfare, but little
the trees in his summer camp in the San Bernardino
community involvement. Now many have withered.
mountains die from the smog of Los Angeles. He
Nurturing a relationship between people and
and a dozen other campers tore up a parking lot and
trees is the central message of TreePeople. Without
created a meadow. The planting of smog-resistant
people, trees die. Without trees, so will people.
JUN 24 1990
The Houston Dost
Global warming fuels
scientific debates
By Jim Detjen
heat up, these scientists are hard at
Constructing 375 satellites -
Knight News Service
work concocting planetary engi-
each containing 50 square miles of
Imagine 200 gigantic marine
neering projects costing hundreds
solar panels - that would orbit
farms - each roughly the size of
of billions of dollars that they say
22,300 miles above the Earth.
New Jersey - that drift on the
could stabilize the Earth's climate
These satellites, built during the
surfaces of the world's oceans. Or
if the greenhouse effect overheats
next 75 years, would generate elec-
satellites bigger than Boston or
the globe in the 21st century.
tricity from sunlight and transmit
San Francisco that beam solar en-
Among the proposals are these:
this energy back to Earth on mi-
ergy back to Earth. Or so many
Launching a fleet of 700
crowave beams. By eliminating the
tons of chemicals dumped into the
jumbo jets to disperse 35 million
need for new power plants, they
atmosphere to cleanse it that the
tons of sulfur dioxide droplets each
would reduce the buildup of carbon
sky is bleached white.
year into the upper atmosphere -
dióxide.
These are just a few of the vision-
so many that they would turn the
A paper discussing the iron-
ary schemes being dreamed up by
sky white. The droplets would
dumping proposal was published in
some of the nation's most brilliant
form a massive shield over the
the May 10 issue of Nature, a
scientists as possible ways to com-
planet, similar to a one-way mir-
major British science journal. And
bat the global warming that is
ror, that would reflect sunlight and
a panel of the National Research
expected to occur as a result of the
help cool off the Earth.
Council, which advises the federal
greenhouse effect.
Building enormous floating
government, has recommended
Most climate-change scientists
beds of kelp - all together, equiva-
that at least two of the schemes be
now believe that the average tem-
lent to five times the size of Texas
actively explored.
perature of the Earth will increase
- that would drift on the ocean's
But some environmentalists are
4 to 9 degrees in the next 100 years,
surfaces sucking up carbon dioxide
aghast at the proposals, which
according to a recent survey by the
through photosynthesis. The ma-
would be the largest efforts ever
Global Environmental Change Re-
rine plants could then be sunk to
undertaken to manipulate nature.
port, an Arlington, Mass., newslet-
store the carbon dioxide at the
They fear that the ideas - if
ter.
ocean's bottom.
carried out - might cause irrepa-
The greenhouse effect is the
Dumping 300,000 tons of iron
rable damage to the planet.
name given to a theory that says
pellets into the oceans. These pel-
Wallace Broecker, a geochemist
temperatures will rise as carbon
lets would fertilize "unproductive"
at Columbia University and a pro-
dioxide, methane and other gases
parts of the ocean, providing the
ponent of the plan to dump sulfur
build up in the atmosphere, much
nutrients for tiny marine plants,
dioxide into the atmosphere, be-
as a greenhouse traps solar heat.
which would absorb carbon diox-
lieves that the time has come to
Among the effects are melting ice
ide. When the plants died, they
actively discuss such global pro-
caps, rising seas, shifting of agri-
would sink to the ocean's bottom.
jects.
cultural lands and changing
Fish eating the plants would ex-
"As scientists we should be ex-
weather patterns.
crete droppings containing carbon
ploring all of the possible options,"
While other researchers debate
dioxide that also would sink to the
he said. "We need to develop insur-
whether the planet has begun to
sea floor.
ance policies for the future."
CONTINUED
75
The Houston Dost
CONTINUED
JUN 24 1990
Strategies
for staving off
global warming
Scientists are dreaming up
Harnessing
the sun's
visionary, albeit controversial,
energy
planetary engineering
One Idea calls for
projects to combat
375 satellite power
the greenhouse
stations - each
effect.
containing 50 square
miles of solar panels
that would be bathed
in constant sunlight.
The satellites would
The 375 satellite
transmit microwaves to
power stations
receiving stations on
would be in
Earth, whose rectifying
geosynchronous
antennas would convert
orbit 22,300 miles
the microwaves into electricity.
Microwave
above the Earth.
By eliminating the need for
beams
Estimated price
new fossil-fuel power plants,
Solar
tag: $100 billion for
they would reduce carbon
panels
development, and
dioxide buildup.
$12 billion for
each satellite.
Floating beds of kelp
One possible "marine farm" would involve massive
beds of giant kelp growing on the surface of the ocean.
Each farm would cover 100 or more square miles. Mesh
would keep the kelp - a form of seaweed - extended
on the surface. The kelp would drift through the ocean,
absorbing carbon dioxide, and eventually be sunk to the
bottom of the ocean. This would help reduce carbon
dioxide buildup.
Kelp
Mesh
Receiving station
Nutrients from beneath the
Other projects:
sea might be pumped up to
help fertilize the plants.
Shielding the atmosphere
The kelp beds would float
Huge jets would disperse tons of sulfur dioxide droplets into the upper atmosphere,
freely and drift with the
forming a massive shield to reflect sunlight and help cool off the Earth.
ocean currents.
Fertilizing the ocean
Hundreds of thousands of tons of iron pellets would be
dumped into the oceans to stimulate growth of marine plants that would absorb
carbon dioxide.
SOURCES: Peter E. Glaser, Howard Wlloox, California institute of Technology
Knight-Rodder Tribune News/KIRK MONTGOMERY
76
EPA in the Ne
LOS ANGELES TIMES
WEDNESDAY, JULY 4, 1990
B7
Reduce Global Warming
at Lowest Economic Cost
(chlorofluorocarbons, or CFCs) that are
cient cash compensation from the rest of
Environment: The countries
destroying the Earth's ozone layer. Many
the world could make the request very
participants saw this as just the first step
welcome.
most willing to reduce carbon
toward eliminating CFCs completely.
The economic summit is obviously not
dioxide emissions should be
It would be a serious mistake, however,
the time to work out the difficult issues of
if the economic summit were to take the
just how much global carbon dioxide re-
compensated in cash and goods.
Montreal approach as the way to deal with
duction is desirable, nor how the total
the much larger problem of global
world cost of achieving that reduction
warming and carbon dioxide emissions.
should be divided. Those are problems to
By MARTIN FELDSTEIN
The critical difference between CFCs and
be assigned to the economic and environ-
and KATHLEEN FELDSTEIN
carbon dioxide is that it is feasible to
ment officials and their staffs. But Presi-
The problem of global warming is sure to
eliminate CFCs altogether from the envi-
dent Bush and the other leaders of the
be on the agenda of the economic summit
industrial democracies can take a big step
next week in Houston.
ronment. In contrast, carbon dioxide can
toward an appropriate policy on global
Although there are scientific doubts
never be completely eliminated since
warming by declaring the correct princi-
about the extent of the problem, there is no
emissions accompany not only virtually all
pal: carbon dioxide emissions should be
industrial activity, but also are a biological
reduced in those countries where the costs
question that whatever is to be done must
be accomplished on a global basis. The
byproduct of animal life itself.
of doing so are least, and the countries that
solution is not to ask individual countries to
Reducing carbon dioxide emissions in-
bear that burden should be compensated
stabilize their emissions of carbon dioxide,
volves economic costs. A country can
by the rest of the world.
as many environmentalists urge. What's
reduce its emissions only by investing in
more fuel-efficient technologies, by using
Martin Feldstein served as chairman of
really needed, contrary to recent state-
more expensive fuels or by reducing its
the Council of Economic Advisers during the
ments by some Bush Administration offi-
cials, is a global fund to compensate those
rate of economic growth. The economic
Reagan Administration. His wife, Kathleen
countries that do more than their fair share
cost of reducing carbon dioxide emissions
Feldstein, is an economist.
of cutting carbon dioxide emissions.
differs among countries according to their
Carbon dioxide is a primary cause of
current industrial technologies and agri-
global warming. Emissions accompany the
cultural practices.
burning of carbon fuels such as gasoline
Because global warming depends only
and home-heating oil, and through indus-
on the total amount of carbon dioxide in the
trial processes that use coal, oil or gas.
atmosphere and not on the country of
The key scientific fact that makes inter-
origin, the goal of policy should be to
national cooperation necessary is that
reduce emissions in a way that has the
while carbon dioxide can enter the atmos-
lòwest total economic cost, then distribute
phere from any point, it is distributed
that cost among the countries of the world
equally around the globe within 12 months.
in a fair and acceptable way. Countries that
There is nothing to ensure that those
can reduce emissions at lowest cost should
countries that heavily rely on the burning
take on a larger burden of reductions and
of carbon fuels will bear the burden of the
receive compensation from the other coun-
global warming that may result.
tries in the form of cash and goods.
Reducing emissions of carbon dioxide is a
It would be wrong, therefore, if interna-
more appropriate subject for international
tional negotiations to deal with global
negotiations and coordination than the
warming called for each country to stabi-
problems of monetary and budget policy
lize carbon dioxide emissions at the current
that have been the standard subject of
level or to reduce emissions by the same
economic summits in the past. Although a
proportion. The United States is the largest
change in American monetary or budget
contributor of carbon dioxide to the Earth's
policy does affect the other key industrial
atmosphere. But it would be inappropriate
countries, the primary impact is on the
for America to make any reduction in its
United States. Foreign governments can
emissions if the economic cost per ton were
rather easily offset the effects of policies
lower elsewhere. A better approach would
that spill over from the United States to
be for the United States to achieve its fair
their economies. But when it comes to
share of total global reduction by contrib-
carbon dioxide pollution, emissions pro-
uting to a fund that compensates other
duced in the United States have the same
countries with lower cost opportunities.
impact abroad as they do at home.
The less-developed countries have some
The global nature of much of the
of the lowest cost opportunities to reduce
carbon dioxide emissions. Those countries
environmental problem was clearly recog-
nized in the 1987 Montreal Protocol, in
would rightly complain if they were simply
told to reduce their emissions in order to
which the industrial nations agreed to cut
in half their emissions of the chemicals
improve the global atmosphere. But suffi-
EPA in the News
LOS ANGELES TIMES WEDNESDAY, JULY 4, 1990
B1
ble," Gold said. "There is no way
cials downplayed the health risk of
you can go to the beach there and
swimming near the drain's dis-
Pollution Cited for
not know that there is a problem."
charge point. "There is no indica-
The $125,000 study conducted by
tion that there is any great risk
the Santa Monica Bay Restoration
being in that water," he said.
Swim Ban at Beach
Project was the first of its kind in
He said, however, that a full
California and possibly the nation,
epidemiological study needs to be
director Catherine Tyrrell said.
conducted.
By JEFFREY L. RABIN
Samples taken last August and
TIMES STAFF WRITER
September from the drain, which
carries street runoff from Brent-
For the first time on a Santa Monica Bay beach,
wood and Santa Monica, were test-
swimming has been banned within 100 yards of where a
ed for human enteric viruses.
major storm drain enters the ocean because testing found
Tyrrell said the results showed
the water polluted with sewage containing human viruses.
evidence of viruses from human
The city of Santa Monica's decision to prohibit swimming
fecal contamination in the storm
on a popular stretch of beach near the Pico-Kenter storm
drain. The report speculated that
drain followed disclosure last week of an unprecedented
the most likely sources of the
study that found the presence of human enteric viruses.
waste are illegal sewage connec-
The viruses, which can cause illness ranging from
tions to the storm drain, leaking
stomach flu to hepatitis, were detected in samples taken on
sewer lines or the local homeless
11 days over 15 days of testing last summer at the point
population. Members of the federal
where the drain enters the bay at the foot of Pico
and state-funded project agreed
Boulevard.
that the information should be
Although Los Angeles County health officials played
made available to the public.
down the potential health risk and considered possible
With holiday crowds expected,
Santa Monica City Manager John
changes in the wording of warning signs, Santa Monica
Jalili decided that swimming
took action. The city posted its own large black-and-white
should be banned in the immediate
signs in English and Spanish along the beach 100 yards
area near the drain. "We felt that it
north and south of the drain's entry point.
was a prudent thing to do until
"Swimming within 100 yards of the storm drain outlet is
more information becomes availa-
prohibited," the signs read. "Storm drain waters may be
ble," Jalili said.
contaminated with human disease carrying bacteria or
The findings have sparked con-
virus or hazardous chemicals washed down from urban
cern in Santa Monica's tourist in-
areas."
dustry.
Buoys were placed offshore to
Beverly Moore, executive direc-
designate the area where swim-
tor of the city's Convention and
ming is banned.
Visitors Bureau, concurred that the
Parts of the bay have been
public should not swim within 100
off-limits to swimming when
yards of a storm drain or two days
storms have caused Pico-Kenter
after a storm.
and other drains to flood. But this is
But with the summer tourist
first ban not connected to a storm
season in full swing, Moore took
or sewage spill, officials said.
pains to point out that "the bay is
"It was appropriate to be conser-
swimmable and our beaches are
vative with respect to public-
safe.
We want to make sure
health," Santa Monica Mayor Den-
that the public knows the areas
nis Zane said. "We are very con-
that are safe to swim in and the
cerned there are additional forms
areas that are not safe to swim in,"
of contamination at the storm drain
she said.
that heretofore had not been ac-
The distinction is important be-
knowledged."
cause Santa Monica draws 2.5 mil-
The stark warning signs have
lion visitors year and tourism
had an immediate impact since
contributes substantially to the
they were erected last week. On
city's economy. The affected area
the eve of the busy July 4th
of the beach is immediately in front
holiday, the often-crowded stretch
of the construction site of the Park
of beach was mostly empty:
Hyatt Hotel, which is scheduled to
To underscore its belief that the
open late this year.
public should not swim near the
County officials expressed sur-
drain, the environmental group
prise at Santa Monica's decision.
Heal the Bay plans to hold a rally
Jack Petralia, director of the
at the site this morning at 11.
Health Services Department's Bu-
reau of Environmental Protection,
Heal the Bay's staff scientist
said he could not remember swim-
Mark Gold, who was the principal
investigator on the study, praised
ming ever being banned near a
storm drain.
Santa Monica officials for acting
Petralia and other county offi-
swiftly to ban swimming. "What
they did was extremely responsi-
EPA in the News
USA TODAY THURSDAY, JULY 5, 1990 9A
The United States is the largest
steer in the direction of posi-
single contributor, with about
tive forestry projects as com-
25% of all of the carbon diox-
pared to ones that completely
INQUIRY
ide emissions.
destroy the tropical forests and
the environment.
USA TODAY: So what has
to be done?
USA TODAY: Is it working?
GARDINER: It means that
GARDINER: The unfortu-
you need to have a new energy
nate thing we found out from
policy that steers away from
two new reports that have
Topic: PROTECTING EARTH
fossil fuels and in the direction
come out recently as well as
not only of energy efficiency
our own look at this problem is
David Gardiner is legis-
and conservation, but also re-
that, in fact, the tropical forest
lative director of the
416,000-member Sierra
newable energies like solar
protection plan is being used
that do not contribute to global
not to preserve tropical forests
Club, a group that lobbies
but to destroy them.
for environmental legisla-
warming.
tion at all governmental
USA TODAY: What can be
USA TODAY: Is that your
levels. The organization
message for the leaders at the
done?
hopes to influence leaders
summit?
GARDINER: We are lobby-
from the USA, West Germa-
GARDINER: There is an op-
ing all of the leaders who will
ny, Japan, Canada, Britain,
portunity at this summit meet-
be represented at the summit
France and Italy at the 1990
ing for these leaders to make
meeting to insist that there be
Economic Summit July 9-11
in Houston. Gardiner was
what we think is the important
major reforms so this program
first step that any country
becomes not only more protec-
interviewed by USA TO-
Susan Bascomb, USA TODAY
DAY's editorial board.
needs to make, but particularly
tive of tropical forests, but also
David Gardiner
the ones that are causing the
more inclusive of the local citi-
primary problem. That is to
zens. In many of these develop-
make the commitment to re-
ing countries, participation in
This experiment with
duce by 20% their own emis-
government as we have here
sions by the year 2000.
doesn't happen. A major goal
of the Tropical Forest Action
the planet is dangerous
USA TODAY: How can that
Plan is to bring in citizen
be done?
groups to the government pro-
GARDINER: Here in the
cess as a way of improving the
USA TODAY: You want to
been a lot of talk since the last
United States, probably the sin-
democracy of those countries.
influence world leaders at the
summit a year ago in Paris. A
gle most important step would
And if you have a better deci-
economic summit next week.
third of the communique that
be to improve the efficiency of
sion-making process, you will
In what way?
the leaders issued at the Paris
the automobile fleet. There is
end up with a better decision
summit was about the environ-
legislation, for example, pend-
about how to go forward with
GARDINER: We see an op-
ment, and it included some
ing in Congress that would in-
developing or protecting any
portunity at this meeting in
very positive statements about
crease the fuel efficiency of
particular tropical rain forest.
Houston to have the leaders of
automobiles from their current
the industrial nations of the
the need to take action on glob-
USA TODAY: What is the
level of 27½ miles per gallon
world take action on two of the
al warming - for example,
difference between cutting
- average of new cars sold -
they recommended joint ac-
down acres of trees in Brazil
biggest global environmental
to 40 miles per gallon.
problems that our nations all
tion to curb the emissions of
in the name of economic de-
contribute to - global warm-
carbon dioxide and other
USA TODAY: Aren't there
velopment and cutting acres
ing and the destruction of tropi-
greenhouse gases that cause
other benefits of more fuel-ef-
of trees in metropolitan areas
cal rain forests.
global warming.
ficient cars?
here to extend suburbia out
farther?
USA TODAY: Why focus on
USA TODAY: If there's
GARDINER: If you are us-
the summit as a forum on
been a lot of talk, what about
ing less oil, you might not need
GARDINER: It is not possi-
these issues?
action?
to drill in sensitive areas that
ble for us to be persuasive in
are on the oil industry's wish
getting other countries, particu-
GARDINER: The rest of the
GARDINER: There have
list. Perhaps it will mean we
larly in the developing world,
world watches what happens at
been lots of international meet-
will have fewer oil spills. And it
to take steps to protect their en-
this summit meeting because
ings, and the president himself
would reduce our imports of
vironment if we are not willing
these are the richest nations of
here in this country has hosted
foreign oil, which are currently
to take the same steps our-
the world. If at this summit
a global warming conference.
at a level of about 54%.
selves.
meeting they do little or say
So far, unfortunately, what we
nothing new about the environ-
have seen is very little action to
USA TODAY: What's being
USA TODAY: Our economy
ment, it can be viewed in the
control the pollutants that
done to save the tropical rain
is dragging. Can we really af-
cause global warming.
forests?
rest of the world that the rich-
ford to do the kinds of things
est nations in the world contin-
GARDINER: A year ago at
environmentalists are calling
USA TODAY: Pollutants
ue to exploit the environment
the summit in Paris, they en-
'for?
for their own benefit.
such as what?
dorsed what is known as the
GARDINER: In the short
USA TODAY: How con-
GARDINER: We are partic-
Tropical Forest Action Plan,
run, we're looking at a bunch
cerned about the environ-
ularly focused on the need to
which is designed to have mon-
of policies that are designed,
ment are these leaders?
control carbon dioxide. That's
ey come from the industrial
we hope, to actually save peo-
responsible for about 50% of
nations to projects where tropi-
GARDINER: There has
ple money. What that means
the global warming, and it's
cal forests are located, particu-
for the average consumer is
chiefly a product of fossil fuels.
larly in the Third World, and to
buying a more fuel-efficient
Connd
EPA in the News
Cont'd
car so they buy less gasoline,
having a more energy-efficient
refrigerator or heating or cool-
ing systems, having more effi-
cient light bulbs. I think. the
public is very much prepared
to pay a little bit more up front
because they understand they
will pay less money to their
utilities, to the oil companies,
over the course of the life of
the product.
USA TODAY: But some
people may not want to make
those changes in lifestyle.
GARDINER: To me, we are
basically conducting a huge ex-
periment with the planet. And
that is fine for scientists - they
like experiments. But for the
average person, it is entirely
likely that that person may be
dead by the time this experi-
ment is completed. But that
person's children or grandchil-
dren will be around to survive
with the consequences, and we
cannot predict with very much
precision what the conse-
quences are. But the funda-
mental issue is, do we want to
conduct the experiment at all?
It's a little bit to me like the
question of buying insurance.
Basically, that is what we are
talking about adopting here -
an insurance policy to prevent
this experiment with the plan-
et.
end
EPA in the News
THE WASHINGTON POST
WEDNESDAY, JULY 4, 1990 A19
directed by the White House merely
to send over options rather than
recommendations when it finishes
Jessica Tuchman Mathews
two years of work developing an
energy strategy at the end of 1990.
If Japan and the West Europeans
The Greenhouse Effect:
are correct and the greenhouse phe-
nomenon proves to be a trend that
must soon be reversed, their recent
decisions to begin moving in that
Apparently It's For
direction could hold bad news for
U.S. economic competitiveness. The
means by which carbon dioxide emis-
sions will be cut depend on advances
Others to Worry About
in energy supply technologies, in
transportation, agriculture, industry,
appliances, building construction-in
It has been considered axiomatic ity studies have been done and plan-
short in every corner of the economy
that little can be done to slow the ning processes are in place. Each of
where energy use is important. An
progress of global warming without
these countries has concluded not
international agreement to control
U.S. leadership. Yet one by one the
only that greenhouse warming is a
greenhouse warming would dramati-
countries of Western Europe and Ja-
real phenomenon but that present
cally change criteria of choice in the
pan are adopting explicit national
scientific understanding, while rid-
international marketplace.
goals to cut their emissions of green- dled with uncertainties, is nonethe-
The United States is already far
house gases. Without intending to, or less adequate to merit launching a
behind in many respects, especially in
even fully realizing that it has done major policy response.
the automobile industry. If the emis-
so, Europe has assumed the mantle Recently Japan, which had hereto-
sions goals now being set elsewhere
of international leadership on this fore followed the U.S. lead on green-
are met, the gap will steadily widen.
central environmental issue, leaving house policy, announced that it too
Moreover, technological innovation,
the United States increasingly isolat-
at which the United States is still
ed.
will stabilize carbon dioxide emis-
pretty good, will generally be the
Greenhouse warming is caused by
sions "at the lowest possible level"
easy part. Commercializing the new
the accumulation of several gases in
by 2000. The precise target and
technologies, changing social pat-
the atmosphere, most importantly
program for doing so are to be an-
terns and mobilizing political commit-
carbon dioxide. Since carbon dioxide
nounced by early autumn. France
ment, in all of which we have recent-
is the inevitable outcome of burning a
also is debating cuts in emissions, and
ly lagged, will be the key to success.
fuel, the question of what to do about
the European Community as a whole
United States leadership on green-
greenhouse warming is largely a mat-
may not be far from agreement on a
house control is no longer an option.
ter of energy policy-except where
stabilization goal. At the last vote,
The question is whether we or Eu-
there is large-scale deforestation.
only Spain, Greece and Portugal
rope and Japan have the more pru-
The choices at issue are how much
were opposed.
dent approach to global warming, and
energy a country needs to grow on
What makes this trend particularly
if the latter, for how long-and at
(largely determined by the efficiency
noteworthy for Americans is that
what economic cost-we will be play-
of energy use), and what mix of fuels
most of these countries are already
ing catch-up.
will supply it (nuclear, solar and other
twice as energy-efficient as the Unit-
non-fossil sources produce no carbon
ed States. That is, they consume half
dioxide; of the fossil fuels, coal pro-
as much energy to produce a dollar of
duces the most and natural gas the
GNP as do we. Put another way, the
least).
United States would have to cut its
West Germany's greenhouse-con-
energy use by an astounding 46 per-
trol target is the most ambitious. It
cent without any loss of GNP to
intends to cut the country's carbon
reach Germany's present energy effi-
dioxide emissions by 25 percent from
ciency, and then by an additional
1987 levels by 2005. Government
quarter to reach its planned level.
spokesmen have noted that the com-
U.S. greenhouse policy remains as
parable figure for a united Germany
it was articulated at the disastrous
would be even higher, since energy
international "conference sponsored
waste in East Germany offers so
by the White House in April, namely
many possibilities for easy cuts.
that scientific uncertainties are too
The German announcement fol-
great, to justify a serious effort to
lowed earlier goals set by Britain, the
control carbon dioxide emissions, but
Netherlands, Denmark and Canada.
that further research is a high priori-
Denmark plans a 20 percent cut by
ty. The United States continues to do
2005. The others intend to stabilize
the lion's share of basic research on
their carbon dioxide emissions at
greenhouse warming, but its carbon
1990 levels sometime between 1995
dioxide emissions are rising each
and 2005.
year, and progress toward the articu-
The means by which these goala;
lation of any national energy policy,
will be met are still to be worked out,
let alone one that might incorporate
but the goals have been set-often
greenhouse goals, is questionable.
after fierce internal debate-feasibii-
The Department of Energy has been
EPA in the News
THE NEW YORK TIMES WEDNESDAY, JULY 4, 1990
Center in Fernald, Ohio. The plant, a
uranium processing factory operated
Mexico have been stalled by technical
under contract to the Energy Depart-
COST OF CLEANUP
problems and political opposition.
ment, poured its radioactive and toxic
Total of 122 Nuclear Sites
wastes into large open pits that have
been leaking into underground water
The total five-year cost of $28.6 bil-
supplies. In heavy thunderstorms the
AT NUCLEAR SITES
lion would go to cleaning up the wastes
pits also overflow and radioactive and
at 17 plants and laboratories in the de-
toxic wastes rush into nearby streams.
partment's 12-state nuclear weapons
Suit Settled for $78 Million
IS RAISED BY 50%
industry. Previous estimates by Con-
In 1988, a lawsuit alleging that pollu-
gress, environmental groups, and the
tion at the uranium processing center
Energy Department had put the total
caused property values to drop was
cost of that cleanup at $100 billion to
settled by the Energy Department for
$28.6 BILLION IN 5 YEARS
$200 billion.
$78 million.
The 17 plants are part of an overall
One solution the problem offered by
cleanup project involving more than
the Energy Department is to build a
concrete cap over the pits at a cost esti-
122 nuclear sites in 30 states and the
Energy Department Gives New
mated at $7 million. The State of Ohio,
Marshall Islands in the South Pacific
and residents of Fernald are pressing
and Puerto Rico. The other sites were
Estimate for 17 Weapons
the Energy Department to completely
once research laboratories, production
excavate the pits and ship the chemical
factories and uranium mills where ma-
and nuclear wastes for permanent dis-
Plants in 12 States
terials for nuclear weapons were de-
posal in Nevada. The cost of that
veloped, produced and tested. Many of
project is estimated at $1.1 billion.
the sites are owned by universities and
Similar billion-dollar environmental
By KEITH SCHNEIDER
corporations.
projects are facing the Energy Depart-
ment in Hanford, Wash., Aiken, S.C.,
Special to The New York Times
Members of Congress said today that
Denver, Los Alamos, N.M., St. Louis,
WASHINGTON, July 3 - The
the new cost estimates were not sur-
and Oak Ridge, Tenn. The enormous
Energy Department today raised by 50
prising. "We've been pushing the
costs of the Energy Department's
percent its estimate of the cost of
Energy Department for years to come
pollution problems have begun to af-
cleaning up radioactive and toxic
up with a plan and a cost estimate for
fect other programs in the nuclear
wastes at nuclear weapon production
dealing with their wastes," said Sena-
weapons industry, especially the multi-
sites around the country over the next
tor John Glenn, the Ohio Democrat who
billion plan for repairing nuclear weap-
five years.
is chairman of the Senate Committee
ons plants and building new ones.
Leo P. Duffy, the department's top
on Governmental Affairs. "Now
Earlier this year, the Bush Adminis-
environmental official, said the higher
they're making a start at something,
tration canceled a $1.2 billion project to
cost estimate partly reflected a better
that was neglected for 40 years. The
build a new plutonium plant in Idaho to
save money. Last month, the House of
assessment, put together by the de-
costs are going to be high but it's some-
thing we have to take care of."
Representatives voted to delay spend-
partment for itself and for Congress, of
the technical requirements of the
This year the House passed an appro-
ing $65 million on a new plutonium re-
priation bill adding $400 million to the
processing factory at the Rocky Flats
cleanup and its scope. And he said the
Bush Administration's request of $2.8
Plant in Colorado. Plans for new plants
new estimates partly reflected money
billion for the Energy Department's
in New Mexico and South Carolina also
that contractors are demanding from
cleanup programs for the fiscal year
are receiving new scrutiny from Con-
the Government to protect themselves
1991. Senate leaders have said they
gress and the Administration because
from criminal investigations, civil
would agree to the same level of sup-
of their cost.
suits, or penalties that could arise if port.
Mr. Watkins, however, has not
state or Federal officials believe they
Mr. Duffy said that a provision of the
moved away from his public commit-
have not complied with environmental
hazardous waste law makes contrac-
ment last year to make the Depart-
ment of Energy more accountable on
laws.
tors liable for criminal prosecution by
environmental issues.
He could not specify which money in
states or the Environmental Protection
the higher estimate would go for the
Agency if they do not ask for enough
Need for New Approache
cleanup and which for the added costs
money to adequately. complete a
The need for a new approach to envi-
of liability.
project. Thus, Mr. Duffy said, contrac-
ronmental issues was reinforced in
30-Year Project Seen
tors were asking for more money to
June 1989 when Federal agents raided
protect themselves in case a project
the Rocky Flats Plant near Denver as
The new estimate, which the Energy
was larger and more complicated than
part of a investigation of potential
Department said was a rough figure,
they originally believed. But he could
criminal violations of Federal environ-
raised to $28.6 billion the cost of start-
not identify any specific instances
mental laws. The inquiry is still in
ing the cleanup in the fiscal years 1991
when a contractor had asked for more
progress.
through 1995. Just 11 month earlier,
money because of liability.
Mr. Watkins responded to the raid
Energy Secretary James D. Watkins
"The liability associated with clean-
and other developments by proposing a
ing up our sites has been fairly high,"
new system for penalizing Energy
predicted that it would cost $19.5 billion
said Mr. Duffy, director of the Office of
Deparment contractors for failing to
in the same period to begin cleaning up
Environmental Management at the
do work properly. The Energy Depart-
more than four decades of accumu-
Energy Department.
ment also has forged agreements that
lated waste, a project that he said then
He said that "not too many compa-
give states the authority to penalize
would take 30 years.
nies in the United States are going to be
weapons plant managers and the Gov-
And at the news conference today
willing to bet their assets" on environ-
ernment for failing to comply with en-
Mr. Duffy said that the new estimate
mental contracts unless they are pro-
vironmental laws. Under the Clean
assumed that the department would be
tected financially.
Water Act, for example, states can levy
able to move ahead with its present
The difficulty in precisely estimating
fines of up to $10,000 a day for a viola-
plans for finding and building sites for
the cost of cleaning up nuclear and
tion.
chemical wastes is illustrated by the
In addition to the Fernald suit, other
permanent disposal of the wastes. The
agency's problems in handling pollu--
citizens in Ohio and in Colorado have
agency's efforts to build repositories
tion at the Feed Materials Production
sued the Energy Department for what
Conta
for nuclear waste in Nevada and New
RADIO TV REPORTS, INC.
4701 WILLARD AVENUE, CHEVY CHASE, MARYLAND 20815
(301) 656-4068
FOR
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
PROGRAM
ABC World News Tonight
STATION
WJLA-TV
ABC Network
DATE
July 10, 1990
6:30 P.M.
CITY
Washington, D.C.
SUBJECT
International Response to Global Warming Concerns
TED KOPPEL: On the American Agenda tonight, global
warming. As Brit Hume reported earlier, the seven summit leaders
meeting in Houston have failed, thus far, to agree on global
warming policy. In fact, though, six of the seven nations
already are working to reduce the pollutants they emit in such
vast quantities, pollutants that many scientists say are warming
the planet.
As ABC's Ned Potter reports, the one nation out of step
is the United States.
NED POTTER: This is the world that would be affected by
global warming.
This is the political world that would have to find
solutions, and its leaders are divided over what to do.
PRESIDENT GEORGE BUSH [April 17]: What we need are
facts, the stuff that science is made off.
POTTER: The White House has maintained that the danger
of global warming is unproved, saying to wait for a major report
from 300 scientists assembled by the United Nations. But a month
ago that report came, and it was more than the President bar-
gained for. It predicted in the next three decades a rate of
increase of global mean temperature greater than that seen over
the last ten thousand years.
PRIME MINISTER MARGARET THATCHER [May 25]: The problems
don't lie in the future. They are here and now.
POTTER: Every country at this week's summit, except
OFFICES IN: WASHINGTON D.C.
NEW YORK
LOS ANGELES
CHICAGO
DETROIT
AND OTHER PRINCIPAL CITIES 33
Material supplied by Rodio TV Reports. Inc. may be used for file and reference purposes only It may not be reproduced. sold or publicly demonstrated or exhibited
2
America, has now announced specific targets for reducing carbon
dioxide, the gas from power plants, cars and factories that is
blamed for most of global warming. Britain has pledged to
stabilize its output by the year 2005. West Germany, by then,
plans to cut its emissions 25 percent. The White House, by
contrast, has set no target at all, still unconvinced by the
United Nations report.
BRICE LALONDE [French Environmental Minister]: And I'm
sure that the pressure will be so strong that the United States
will have to reconsider some of its positions.
POTTER: But the Administration says tough environmental
controls would cripple the economy and be contrary to the
American ideals of free enterprise and freedom from big govern-
ment.
BUDGET DIRECTOR RICHARD DARMAN [May 1]: Americans did
not fight and win the wars of the 20th Century to make the world
safe for green vegetables.
POTTER: Actually, from atmospheric research to tree
planting, the White House says it is doing plenty. It has joined
the international agreement to phase out ozone-depleting CFCs,
and parts of the Clean Air Bill would cut emissions. But
scientists say that is much less than what Germany and Holland
are doing, and they are already twice as energy-efficient as
America.
MICHAEL DELAND [White House advisor]: We are a fossil-
fuel-based economy. And for us, the economic considerations are
far more substantial than they are for other countries.
POTTER: Those countries are specifically going after
fossil fuels, forcing car makers to quadruple fuel efficiency,
demanding better home insulation, and, most dramatically, putting
tremendous taxes, as much as ten times American levels, on
anything that burns oil or coal.
Those taxes sound crippling, but they may have an
economic benefit. They already have pushed business to seek
alternatives. BMW hopes to market electric cars in five years.
The Germans are taking the lead in solar power. And the French
government is trying to expand nuclear power. When global
warming is felt worldwide, they expect to sell these technologies
to other countries.
PIER VELLINGA [Dutch Climate Program Director]: What I
experience in the U.S. right now, but I hope it will change, is
that climate-change policy is looked upon as a threat to economy.
Whereas in my feeling, it is a challenge.
34
The New York Times
JUL 11 1990
White House Gases
Reduce greenhouse gases? The Bush Adminis-
man-made emissions from automobiles, electrical
tration has again made clear, at the economic sum-
utilities and industry.
mit meeting in Houston, that it wants no part of an
Except for the U.S., every industrial nation rep-
international timetable to limit emissions of carbon
resented at the summit meeting has pledged to sta-
dioxide, which many fear will lead to a catastrophic
bilize greenhouse gases. Mr. Bush's negative re-
warming of the earth's climate.
sponse might be understandable if he would offer an
There are valid arguments against rushing into
alternative. But he's been so busy saying no that he
speculative, costly fixes. But Mr. Bush and his chief
hasn't even opened for public discussion any num-
of staff, John Sununu, aren't making them. They
ber of sensible ideas to reduce carbon dioxide that
cloak their inaction in gaseous language and dubi-
are worth pursuing on their own merits.
ous science. That's an insult to the allies and a politi-
Compared with other countries, for example,
cal embarrassment for Mr. Bush.
the U.S. uses energy recklessly. Improved automo-
The computer models that predict global
bile mileage standards would improve energy effi-
warming are full of uncertainties - good reason to
ciency. So would an energy tax, which, quite apart
resist a draconian program to reduce emissions.
from its value as insurance against global warming,
-But these same models, and many scientists, sug-
would ease the deficit. A sensible plan would also in-
gest that some warming is likely. And that's reason
clude incentives for using forms of energy that don't
enough to take sensible precautions.
produce carbon dioxide, like solar and a new gener-
Chancellor Helmut Kohl says that Germany is
ation of safe nuclear plants. There would also be in-
prepared to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions by
centives for third world countries to stop the burn-
25 percent in 15 years and urges the allies to follow
ing of tropical forests, an act of ecological vandal-
suit. Some economists think that's an affordable
ism that releases huge amounts of carbon dioxide.
goal. Mr. Sununu thinks it's a recipe for national sui-
Mr. Bush takes pride in his innovative clean air
cide that would force the U.S. to abandon fossil fuels
bill and his decision to join an international agree-
and drive it into a depression.
ment to abolish ozone-threatening chemicals. Those
Mr. Sununu, whose impatience with environ-
are fine achievements, but they do not unhook him
mentalists stops just short of contempt, adum-
from a campaign promise he made on Aug. 31, 1988.
brates his dark vision with half-truths. Most carbon
"Those who think we are powerless to do any-
dioxide emissions, he says, come from decaying
thing about the 'greenhouse effect' are forgetting
vegetation. That's true; but what threatens to shat-
about the 'White House effect,' he said. "As Presi-
ter the global balance isn't nature but a century of
dent, I intend to do something about it." Do what?
6
The Washington Post
JUL
1990
First Civilian Named
To Head SDI Program
Washington Post Staff Writer
A17
Cooper, SDI's first civilian man-
The Brilliant Pebbles system
By R. Jeffrey Smith
ager, indicated he will replace sen-
would be aimed at defending
ior officials who have recently re-
against less than half of Soviet mis-
Secretary of Defense Richard B.
tired, including the program's chief
siles launched in an all-out attack,
Cheney yesterday named Henry F.
scientist, deputy director and chief
allowing thousands of additional
Cooper, a former U.S. arms nego-
of staff.
warheads to penetrate and detonate
tiator and strong advocate of space
As an Air Force deputy assistant
on U.S. territory.
weaponry, to become third director
director for research in the early
Former Air Force lieutenant gen-
of the Strategic Defense Initiative
1980s, Cooper played a key role in
eral James A. Abrahamson, the SDI
(SDI) program that is aimed at de-
developing a small rocket that was
program's first director, strongly
veloping a comprehensive defense
to be launched from F-15 fighters
backed Cooper in a February 1989
against Soviet ballistic missiles.
at orbiting Soviet satellites. The
memorandum to senior Pentagon
Cooper, whose selection is not
program was canceled several
officials, calling him "uniquely
subject to Senate confirmation, in-
years ago due to technical problems
qualified
at a critical time in the
herits a program that faces what
and congressional opposition to
history of these defense programs."
some officials are predicting will be
space weapons tests.
the most intense funding fight in its
As chief U.S. negotiator on de-
six-year history. Some legislators
fense and space matters from 1987
are proposing that its $3.8 billion
to 1989, Cooper strongly supported
fiscal 1991 budget be cut by 40 per-
the Reagan administration's con-
cent, while the Pentagon insists on
troversial "broad," or permissive,
a 22 percent increase.
reading of the 1972 Anti-Ballistic
The program is facing an identity
Missile (ABM) Treaty, allowing vir-
crisis due to warming U.S.-Soviet
tually unlimited tests of sophisticat-
relations, which many experts say
have dimmed the likelihood of a
ed space weaponry. Congress has
strategic conflict, and which have
repeatedly barred such tests as a
violation of the "narrow," or tradi-
prompted some U.S. allies to advo-
cate direct economic aid to Mos-
tional, reading of ABM constraints.
Cooper said yesterday that he
cow.
While some experts have advo-
believes the program's current plan
cated that SDI be reduced and re-
to orbit thousands of small intercep-
directed toward the threat of an
tor rockets, known as "Brilliant
accidental strategic missile launch
Pebbles," has "a lot of promise." His
or regional attack by tactical mis-
predecessor, Air Force Lt. Gen.
siles, Cooper recently completed a
George Monahan, estimated re-
special SDI review for Cheney by
cently that deploying such a system
urging that it remain focused on
would cost $45 billion, but others
have said the lifetime costs would
protecting the United States from
an all-out Soviet assault.
be nearly $100 billion.
He said in a telephone interview
yesterday that his primary goal will
be "to try to help the secretary fo-
cus the program and move toward
picking the exact architecture for a
feasible
defense
and
hopefully
move toward deploying defenses as
soon as the program can demon-
strate they are feasible."
He said he shares Cheney's "com-
mitment to making it happen."
5
EPA in the News
THE NEW YORK TIMES INTERNATIONAL TUESDAY, JULY 10, 1990 A10
The Houston Summit: Wrangling Threatens Unity
Europeans Accuse the U.S. of Balking on
Plans to Combat Global Warming
By ROBERTO SURO
steps to use energy much more effi-
Special to The New York Times
ciently."
meeting Sunday night American offi-
Although President Bush has mus-
cials raised a series of paralyzing ob-
HOUSTON, July 9 - Senior Euro-
pean officials at the economic summit
tered allies to support his views on the
jections, a European participant said.
conference accused the United States
two other major issues being ad-
"We had thought we were making
today of frustrating their efforts to
dressed at the summit talks aid to
progress," the European official said
reach a new accord to combat global
the Soviet Union and international
today, "but at last night's meeting it
warming.
trade - he now stands alone on the
was discouragingly obvious that
The European officials, including
third area of the agenda, the environ-
Sununu was back in the ascendancy,
ment.
members of the British, French and
and the United States was yielding
Italian delegations who asked not
Pledges Made by Others
nothing."
identified, angrily complained that
As the summit meeting's official ses-
European officials said that the first
John H. Sununu, the White House chief
sions began today, European officials
sign that President Bush would resist a
of staff, had taken the leading role in
worried that the United States would
organizing American opposition to the
block their effort to win a commitment
global warming initiative came when
global warming initiative.
to stabilize and then reduce emissions
William K. Reilly, the administrator of
Asked at a news briefing this morn-
of carbon dioxide and other gases that
the Environmental Protection Agency
ing why the United States was resisting
contribute to the greenhouse effect.
was left behind in Washington. Mr.
a West German proposal to set a target
Many scientists believe that these
Reilly was a prominent member of the
for reducing gases that cause global
gases trap heat from the sun that
Bush delegation to the Paris talks.
warming, Mr. Sununu replied, "The
would otherwise escape back into
issue is being addressed with a level of
space. The trapped gases then produce
In Mr. Reilly's absence the role of
haste." He added, "There seems to be
a gradual warming of the earth's at-
chief adviser on environmental mat-
some propensity to deal with the issue
mosphere.
ters has been assumed by Mr. Sununu,
without putting all the data on the
who has publicly disagreed with Mr.
table."
Except for the United States, all the
Reilly on assessments of environmen-
Kohl Asks 'Radical Measures'
industrial nations represented at the
tal dangers. At the news briefing this
summit meeting have now pledged to
morning, Mr. Sununu rejected the kind
In a letter sent to summit leaders
stabilize greenhouse gas emissions, at
of joint commitment to specific limita-
last month, Chancellor Helmut Kohl of
least by early in the next century.
tions on gas emissions that the West
West Germany called for "internation-
Even Britain and Japan, which for-
Germans among others are pressing
ally binding regulations with "radical
merly sided with Washington in insist-
the meeting to adopt.
measures to limit" gas emissions that
ing that more scientific and economic
information was needed before taking
He said, "There is a concern that this
contribute to the greenhouse effect.
Chancellor Kohl said: "We must
action, are developing plans to reduce
idea of a permanent cap in perpetuity
view the threat of climate change as a
carbon dioxide emissions. West Ger-
does not understand not only our
global challenge to all mankind. The
many has taken the lead, with a goal of
growth needs, but the growth needs of
the developing countries of the world."
world expects the seven summit coun-
reducing such emissions by 25 percent
tries to come up with far-reaching, spe-
in the next 15 years.
He added, "so what we are seeking is
cific proposals."
President Bush's apparent determi-
a commitment that is broader, a com-
Mr. Sununu insisted today that the
nation to block a global warming initia-
mitment that would allow both the in-
Bush Administration had endorsed
tive at this summit meeting stands in
dustrialized countries and the develop-
limits on some emissions through the
sharp contrast to his embrace of major
ing countries to address the broad
Clean Air Act, but he opposed new
environmental commitments at last
issue of greenhouse gases without pick-
emission limits, contending that they
year's economic summit talks in Paris.
ing them one by one, setting caps on
would require major changes in the
In the final communiqué of that
them individually."
American way of life and the nation's
meeting, the national leaders declared
industrial structure.
that "decisive action is urgently
He noted, for instance, that because
needed to understand and protect the
the United States was much larger
earth's ecological balance."
than Japan or any of the European na-
'Common Efforts' Urged
tions it had a greater reliance on cars
and trucks to transport people and
On the issue of global warming the
products.
communiqué stated, "We strongly ad-
vocate common efforts to limit emis-
Commenting on Mr. Sununu's posi-
sions of carbon dioxide and other
tion, James T.B. Tripp, general coun-
greenhouse gases, which threaten to in-
sel of the Environmental Defense
Fund, a Washington-based advocacy
duce climate change, endangering the
environment and ultimately the econ-
group, said, "These statements may
omy."
serve to explain why United States per
capita consumption of fossil fuels is so
Even as the summit delegations
high compared to Western Europe and
began gathering here this weekend,
Japan, but they are not legitimate ex-
European officials hoped that the
cuses for United States refusal to limit
Houston talks would build on the rheto-
carbon dioxide emissions and take
ric of the Paris communiqué. But at a
EPA in the News
A2 THE WALL STREET JOURNAL TUESDAY, JULY 10, 1990
EPA Sets Toxic- Waste Cleanup Rules;
Heavy Costs Likely for Chemical Firms
The rules aren't likely to become final
By ROSE GUTFELD
for a couple of years, largely because the
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
White House Budget Office, which held up
WASHINGTON - The federal govern-
the rules for two years, is requiring the
ment proposed hazardous-waste cleanup
agency to develop more precise estimates
standards that would impose heavy costs
of the projected costs. The environmental
on chemical and other companies but gen-
agency also plans to hold hearings and
erally spur brisk growth among treatment
consider public comments on the pro-
and disposal companies.
posal.
The standards, proposed by the Envi-
ronmental Protection Agency, spell out
But release of the proposal is expected
procedures for decontaminating waste gen-
to get work started at a variety of facilities
erated routinely during manufacturing or
where companies have been waiting to get
resulting from accidents or spills. The
a sense of what form the regulations would
agency put the cost to private industry at
take.
between S7 billion and S42 billion over 20
The EPA, under its existing authority,
years. with the biggest impact falling on
has imposed cleanup requirements at more
chemical companies, petroleum refiners.
than 600 facilities. Mr. Clay said the pro-
wood preservers, metal finishers and auto
posal aims to standardize rules and proce-
manufacturers.
dures while expediting cleanups. In some
The new rules, called "corrective ac-
cases. requirements are designed to deal
tion" rules. would affect 3,000 to 4,000 oper-
with existing environmental hazards: in
ating facilities. including several hundred
owned by the federal government. They
other cases they are meant to prevent po-
would result in a cleanup effort bigger
tential future threats, he said.
than the federal Superfund program. which
is designed to clean up abandoned waste
sites. Currently. the agency has no com-
prehensive standards for cleaning up haz-
ardous wastes at sites that haven't been
abandoned.
Much of the cleanup business resulting
from the proposed rules probably would go
to companies such as Chemical Waste
Management, International Technology
Corp. and Canonie Environmental Services
Corp., according to Debra Coy, environ-
mental analyst at Washington Analysis
Corp., a research arm of County NatWest
Securities. "My sense is there is some
pent-up demand out there that should be
released." she said.
EPA officials and private analysts pre-
dicted that the rules. along with other fed-
eral actions tightening cleanup and permit
requirements over the past few years,
would force marginally profitable polluters
and cleanup companies out of business.
The EPA said industries that may have a
rough time complying include the sanita-
tion services, coatings and engravings and
wood products industries.
The new standards would address treat-
ment, storage or disposal of hazardous
wastes by any company that has such
wastes on hand for 90 days or more. Don
Clay. an assistant EPA administrator, said
a growing number of companies would be
covered because more and more sub-
stances are considered toxic.
The cost of cleaning federal sites, which
mostly are owned by the Energy and De-
fense departments. would range from $3
billion to $18 billlion.
EPA in the News
The
Seattle
Times
/
Seattle
Post-Intelligencer
Sunday,
June
10,
1990
A
17
Scientists concoct fantastic ways
to combat global warming
Jim Detjen
Knight-Ridder Newspapers
major British science journal. And a panel of the
National Research Council, which advises the
federal government, has recommended that at least
MAGINE 200 gigantic marine farms - each
two of the schemes be actively explored.
roughly the size of New Jersey that drift on
But some environmentalists are aghast at the
the surfaces of the world's oceans. Or satellites
proposals, which would be the largest efforts ever
bigger than Boston or San Francisco that beam
undertaken to manipulate nature. They fear that the
solar energy back to Earth. Or so many tons of
ideas - if carried out - might cause irreparable
chemicals dumped into the atmosphere to cleanse it
damage to the planet.
that the sky is bleached white.
Wallace Broecker, a geochemist at Columbia
These are just a few of the visionary schemes
University and a proponent of the plan to dump
being dreamed up by some of the nation's most
sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere, believes that the
brilliant scientists as possible ways to combat the
time has come to actively discuss such global
global warming that is expected to occur as a result
projects.
of the greenhouse effect.
"As scientists we should be exploring all of the
While other researchers debate whether the
possible options," he said. "We need to develop
planet has begun to heat up, these scientists are
insurance policies for the future."
hard at work concocting planetary engineering
Broecker said many scientists did not want to
projects costing hundreds of billions of dollars that
discuss these proposals because they believe the
they say could stabilize the Earth's climate if the
public is against climate engineering.
greenhouse effect overheats the globe in the 21st
But Rodney M. Fujita, a staff scientist with the
century.
Environmental Defense Fund, a nonprofit group,
said these schemes were dangerously misguided.
Among the proposals are these:
"These proposals are bad ideas. They signify an
Launching a fleet of 700 jumbo jets to disperse
arrogance towards nature. There are many simpler
35 million tons of sulfur dioxide droplets each year
things that could be done to slow down global
into the upper atmosphere - so many that they
warming - such as improving energy efficiency,
would turn the sky white. The droplets would form
planting forests and developing alternative fuels."
a massive shield over the planet, similar to a one-
Fujita said that virtually every effort people have
way mirror, that would reflect sunlight and help
taken to manipulate nature has backfired, causing
cool off the Earth.
unforeseen environmental consequences. "We don't
Building enormous floating beds of kelp - all
know what we are doing," he said. "These
together, equivalent to five times the size of Texas
proposals could have disastrous results."
- that would drift on the ocean's surfaces sucking
up carbon dioxide through photosynthesis. The
Most climate-change scientists now believe
marine plants could then be sunk to store the
that the average temperature of the Earth will
carbon dioxide at the ocean's bottom.
increase 4 to 9 degrees in the next 100 years,
Dumping 300,000 tons of iron pellets into the
according to a recent survey by the Global
oceans. These pellets would fertilize "unproductive"
Environmental Change Report, an Arlington, Mass..
parts of the ocean, providing the nutrients for tiny
newsletter.
marine plants, which would absorb carbon dioxide.
The survey found that 76 percent of the 330
When the plants died, they would sink to the
scientists who participated believe that global
ocean's bottom. Fish eating the plants would
warming caused by human activities has already
excrete droppings containing carbon dioxide that
begun; 90 percent believe countries should take
also would sink to the sea floor.
immediate steps to reduce carbon dioxide emis-
Constructing 375 satellites - each containing
sions.
50 square miles of solar panels - that would orbit
The greenhouse effect is the name given to a
22,300 miles above the Earth. These satellites, built
theory that says temperatures will rise as carbon
during the next 75 years, would generate electricity
dioxide, methane and other gases build up in the
from sunlight and.transmit this energy back to
atmosphere, much as a greenhouse traps solar heat.
Earth on microwave beams. By eliminating the need
Among the effects are melting ice caps, rising seas,
for new power plants, they would reduce the
buildup of carbon dioxide.
patterns. shifting of agricultural lands and changing weather
While some of the proposals seem fantastic, they
Of the proposals to counteract the greenhouse
are being seriously discussed by scientists in
effect, the iron-dumping plan has received the most
important journals and at prestigious workshops.
acceptance. A National Research Council workshop
A paper discussing the iron-dumping proposal
on the subject was held last December.
was published in the May 10 issue of Nature. a
cont
EPA in the News
Cont.
Environmentalists report the
Feinstein camp has been wooing
them ardently since the primary
election.
Third reason: Many environmen-
talists believe that Wilson's record is
not as good as their rhetoric indi-
cates, and that, for political reasons,
Wilson is praised more for his good
deeds than blamed for his bad ones.
That may be an overstatement,
but there is a curious symbiotic rela-
tionship at work here.
Environmentalist leaders are
painfully reluctant to criticize Wil-
son. They need him, and they think
they sway his vote. And even if Wil-
son loses this race, he will be a U.S.
senator for another four years.
Wilson, in turn, eagerly courts the
environmentalists, hoping to win.
their election-year support, or neu-
trality, by listening to their argu-:
ments and often coming around to
their position. He makes them feel
important.
Both sides are served well by this
relationship. But with the governor-
ship on the de, it won't be enour 4.
end.
EPA in the News
SAN FRANCISCO EXAMINER
Earth warming worsens,
dividing world leaders
6/10
greenhouse gases.
U.S., Soviet Union
When the gases soar to the up-
The Bush administration be-
per atmosphere they trap the
lieves that reducing carbon-dioxide
called top culprits
Earth's heat like greenhouse glass.
emissions - which could be ac-
Scientists say this could cause the
complished by cutting the use of
in befouling of air
fossil fuels - will be so expensive
flooding of entire nations as ocean
that more scientific information is
EXAMINER NEWS SERVICES
SF
levels rise and cause potentially
needed before proceeding. Britain
catastrophic changes in rainfall
and other European nations have
GENEVA - Deforestation has
and crop yields.
made commitments to stabilize or
increased to the point that devel-
Using data mainly from 1987,
reduce carbon dioxide emissions by
oping countries are becoming ma-
the study ranks the United States
early next century.
jor contributors to global warming
and the Soviet Union as the main
The divisions emerged more
because of the vast amounts of car-
culprits, contributing 17.6 and 12.0
sharply Thursday at a meeting of
bon dioxide being released by burn-
percent respectively to overall
the U.N.-backed Intergovernmen-
ing of tropical forests, according to
greenhouse emissions.
tal Panel on Climate Change in
a new study.
The next three are developing
Geneva, attended by more than 30
"The sources of the problem are
countries - Brazil with 10.5 per-
countries.
global, and any solution to the
cent, China with 6.6 percent and
The split concerned the way na-
problems must also be global," said
India with 3.9 percent.
tions should arrive at an agreement
Alan Brewster, vice president of
Most of the industrialized coun-
to reduce emissions of greenhouse
the U.S.-based World Resources
tries' emissions are from burning
gases. A draft report by the panel
Institute. It conducted the study
hydrocarbons - coal, gas and oil.
proposed an early agreement, but
for the United Nations.
India and China both burn a lot of
Saudi Arabia called for a go-slow
The report concluded Brazil had
coal, but 27 percent of India's con-
approach.
emitted more carbon dioxide than
tribution was also due to deforesta-
Delegates saw the Saudi opposi-
the United States in 1987 because
tion.
tion as reflecting growing concern
of intensive forest burning in the
The report added that the world
among oil-producing countries
Amazon jungle, the world's largest
is losing its tropical forests much
that steps to reduce the emission of
remaining rain forest.
faster than previously thought,
carbon dioxide might cut the de-
The study found several Third
with deforestation running at a
mand for oil.
World countries also ranked higher
rate of 40 million to 50 million
The Soviet Union and China
than the United States and other
acres a year - an area the size of
backed Saudi Arabia by saying that
industrialized nations in terms of
the state of Washington.
they couldn't meet early targets to
per-person emissions of green-
New analyses of satellite photos
cut greenhouse gas emissions.
house gases. Laos, Brazil and the
show tropical rain forests are being
Ivory Coast all ranked ahead of the
United States in that respect.
wiped out 50 percent faster than
But in calculating overall re-
was indicated by previous studies.
leases of the major greenhouse gas-
The Soviet Union, China and
es, the report said, the United
Saudi Arabia on Thursday joined
States had the highest "greenhouse
the United States at a major inter-
index."
Developing nations now spew
national conference in opposing
out 45 percent of the world's major
early action to tackle global
warming.
greenhouse gases - carbon diox-
The division among world gov-
ide, methane and chlorofluorocar-
ernments on the issue deepened
bons. But these nations are quick
further when 14 countries, includ-
to point out that the industrialized
ing France, Italy and the whole of
world had already loaded the atmo-
Scandinavia, tabled a motion call-
sphere with these gases before they
ing for immediate negotiations on
started serious development.
diplomatic accords, known as pro-
tocols, to reduce emissions of
EPA in the New
Chicago Tribune, Sunday, June 10, 1990
Section 7
5
Despite regulatory obstacles,
waste firms expect to clean up
By Pamela Sherrod
Chief executives from some of
and the state banned land disposal
Waste Management, which 20
the largest companies that deal in
of certain types of waste materials
years ago only hauled garbage, has
waste management say their future
in superfund sites and other clean-
grown into a leader in the field,
depends on a lot of outside forces:
up projects."
handling all sorts of solid waste.
the "Green Movement," new tech-
Dempsey said the waste manage-
The Oak Brook-based firm pro-
nology and legislation for special
vides integrated systems to reduce,
ment industry also will be hurt by
or hazardous waste.
tax legislation that takes effect
collect, treat and dispose of urban
and industrial waste with services
It also depends on a particular
July 15 in Alabama. The state is
that include waste reduction, re-
kind of supply and demand:
raising taxes on the waste it re-
Though garbage is in anything but
ceives to $40 per ton on in-state
cycling programs and recycling
waste collection.
short supply, nobody wants it.
waste and $112 per ton on out-of-
Dozens of companies, including
state waste from $22 per ton. Lou-
Koenig said the $3.6 billion
company has grown by expanding
Chicago-area firms Waste Manage-
isiana is considering a similar tax.
and re-evaluating its role in the in-
ment Inc., Chemical Waste Man-
Even with those developments,
agement Inc. and Safety-Kleen
Chemical Waste, which handles
dustry and through acquisitions.
Koenig especially noted recent ac-
Corp., participated in a two-day
hazardous waste, said it expects to
quisitions in Europe.
environmental investment confer-
continue to grow at a healthy rate.
ence last week that attracted more
The company ended 1989 with a
Kay Hahn, an analyst with First
than 200 money managers from
23.4 percent increase in its net in-
Chicago Corp., said Waste Man-
major pension funds and other in-
come to $144.2 million and a 27
agement has been successful at ex-
stitutional investors.
percent sales increase to $891.9
panding its business over a long
million.
period of time, a key to long-term
Waste management firms have
been one of the darlings of Wall
Chemical Waste's remedial ser-
economic health for a company.
Street as attention in the last dec-
vice group recently received a con-
"The key thing I've seen with
ade has turned to environmental
tract from Exxon Corp. to assist
Waste Management is they have
cleanup, and in general their
in the cleanup of Prince William
grown from being garbage hauler
stocks have outperformed the mar-
Sound. The U.S. Drug En-
to be on the leading edge of the
ket. The company officers who
forcment Agency awarded Chemi-
waste management industry," she
cal Waste's technical service group
said.
spoke at the conference offered the
analysts hopes that growth will
a three-year contract estimated at
Donald W. Brinckman, Safety-
$40 million to dispose of chemi-
Kleen's chief executive, said his
continue but tempered that by
noting waste management faces
cals discovered in drugs busts.
company, whose 1989 sales rose
obstacles on many-fronts.
Michael Hutchison, an analyst
15 percent to $478 million, has
with Barrington Research Asso-
come to see itself as a diversified
"One of the primary things af-
ciates, said Chemical Waste is
waste management firm.
fecting the waste industry is that
benefiting from its hazardous
we have not handled our waste in
Before 1984, Safety-Kleen
waste disposal sites.
thought of itself as a parts cleaner
an environmentally sound manner
"They have one-third of this
in the past, and our methods need
business and never regarded its
market in the U.S.," Hutchison
disposal functions as important,
improving," said Kay Hahn, an
environmental analyst at First
said. "Further 'permitting' of sites
he said.
Chicago Corp.
for other companies is going to be
"That changed for us because re-
difficult because no one wants
cycling became regulated under
Jerry Dempsey, president and
these sites around. This is an area
the laws at the time, and we were
chief executive of Chemical Waste
Chemical Waste is ahead in.
dragged into the environmental
Management, said state legislation
is affecting his company.
"They have a leading share of
fold,' said Brinckman.
this market, and there is still the
Brinckman said the company ex-
In particular, he noted legisla-
tion in Alabama that bans hazard-
demand to dispose of hazardous
pects to be affected by pending
materials. It has to go somewhere,
legislation on the classification of
ous waste imports from 20 states.
and Chemical Waste has the
used oil, but could benefit regard-
"Alabama is the focal point
sites," he said.
less of whether oil is determined
now, but there is a chance that de-
Waste Management's Chief Fi-
to be a special or hazardous waste.
velopments in Alabama could
nancial Officer James E. Koenig
Michael Hutchison, an analyst
spread to other states," Dempsey
said one way waste management
with Barrington Research Asso-
said. "Alabama has legislated regu-
firms can continue to grow is
ciates, said Safety-Kleen can han-
lations for prior approval of cer-
through acquisitions.
dle used oil as either type of
tain incoming waste shipments,
waste.
EPA in the News
A18
THE NEW YORK TIMES, WEDNESDAY, JULY 11, 1990
ARTHUR OCHS SULZBERGER. Publisher
ARTHUR OCHS SULZBERGER JR., Deputy Publisher
MAX FRANKEL. Executive Editor
JOSEPH LELYVELD, Managing Editor
WARREN HOGE. Assistant Managing Editor
The New York Times
DAVID R. JONES, Assistant Managing Editor
CAROLYN LEE, Assistant Managing Editor
JOHN M. LEE, Assistant Managing Editor
ALLAN M. SIEGAL, Assistant Managing Editor
Founded in 1851
JACK ROSENTHAL, Editorial Page Editor
ADOLPH S. OCHS, Publisher 1896-1935
LESLIE H. GELB, Deputy Editorial Page Editor
ARTHUR HAYS SULZBERGER, Publisher 1935-1961
ORVIL E. DRYFOOS, Publisher 1961-1963
LANCE R. PRIMIS. President
RUSSELL T. LEWIS, Sr.V.P., Production
ERICH G. LINKER JR., Sr. V.P., Advertising
JOHN M. O'BRIEN, Sr.V.P., Finance/Human Resources
ELISE J. ROSS, Sr. V.P., Systems
WILLIAM L. POLLAK. V.P., Circulation
White House Gases
Reduce greenhouse gases? The Bush Adminis-
man-made emissions from automobiles, electrical
tration has again made clear, at the economic sum-
utilities and industry.
mit meeting in Houston, that it wants no part of an
international timetable to limit emissions of carbon
Except for the U.S., every industrial nation rep-
resented at the summit meeting has pledged to sta-
dioxide, which many fear will lead to a catastrophic
bilize greenhouse gases. Mr. Bush's negative re-
warming of the earth's climate.
sponse might be understandable if he would offer an
There are valid arguments against rushing into
alternative. But he's been so busy saying no that he
speculative, costly fixes. But Mr. Bush and his chief
hasn't even opened for public discussion any num-
of staff, John Sununu, aren't making them. They
ber of sensible ideas to reduce carbon dioxide that
cloak their inaction in gaseous language and dubi-
are worth pursuing on their own merits.
ous science. That's an insult to the allies and a politi-
Compared with other countries, for example,
cal embarrassment for Mr. Bush.
the U.S. uses energy recklessly. Improved automo-
-The computer models that predict global
bile mileage standards would improve energy effi-
warming are full of uncertainties - good reason to
ciency. So would an energy tax, which, quite apart
resist a draconian program to reduce emissions.
from its value as insurance against global warming,
But these same models, and many scientists, sug-
would ease the deficit. A sensible plan would also in-
gest that some warming is likely. And that's reason
clude incentives for using forms of energy that don't
enough to take sensible precautions.
produce carbon dioxide, like solar and a new gener-
Chancellor Helmut Kohl says that Germany is
ation of safe nuclear plants. There would also be in-
prepared to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions by
centives for third world countries to stop the burn-
25 percent in 15 years and urges the allies to follow
ing of tropical forests, an act of ecological vandal-
suit. Some economists think that's an affordable
ism that releases huge amounts of carbon dioxide.
goal. Mr. Sununu thinks it's a recipe for national sui-
Mr. Bush takes pride in his innovative clean air
cide that would force the U.S. to abandon fossil fuels
bill and his decision to join an international agree-
and drive it into a depression.
ment to abolish ozone-threatening chemicals. Those
Mr. Sununu, whose impatience with environ-
are fine achievements, but they do not unhook him
mentalists stops just short of contempt, adum-
from a campaign promise he made on Aug. 31, 1988.
brates his dark vision with half-truths. Most carbon
"Those who think we are powerless to do any-
dioxide emissions, he says, come from decaying
thing about the 'greenhouse effect' are forgetting
vegetation. That's true; but what threatens to shat-
about the 'White House effect,' he said. "As Presi-
ter the global balance isn't nature but a century of
dent, I intend to do something about it." Do what?
EPA in the News
THE WASHINGTON POST
WEDNESDAY, JULY 11, 1990 A9
Cleanup Plan for Atom-Arms Plant Called
Perilous
Group Says Energy Dept. Should Try Other Methods of Processing Spent
Nuclear Fuel
PUREX to extract more would gen-
By Thomas W. Lippman
where chemical processes extract
erate at least 500,000 gallons
Washington Post Staff Writer
plutonium from the N-reactor's
of radioactive liquid waste that
spent fuel. Closed in 1972, it was
The Energy Department's pre-
would have to be stored in Han-
restarted in 1983 during the Rea-
ferred method of cleaning up 2,100
ford's subterranean tanks, which he
gan administration's defense build-
metric tons of highly radioactive
said might explode. He said it would
up, but was shut down again for
spent nuclear fuel at its Hanford,
be preferable, and $300 million
safety reasons in December 1988,
Wash., plant is the most dangerous
cheaper, to leave the spent fuel
leaving no outlet for the N-reactor
and probably the most expensive of
where it is until an above-ground,
fuel.
the available options, an indepen-
dry cask storage system can be de-
About half the spent fuel is in
dent study organization charged
veloped.
canisters that were welded shut in
yesterday.
Department spokesman Tim To-
the 1970s. The rest is in open can-
According to the Institute for
mastik said no decision to restart
isters in direct contact with the
Energy and Environmental Re-
PUREX has been made. He said the
storage water. Makhijani said the
search, of Takoma Park, the de-
department was "going to deter-
Energy Department gave no expla-
partment's proposal to remove the
mine whether or not to proceed
nation for failing to complete the
stored fuel from tanks of water and
with preparation of an environmen-
sealing process, but Tomastik said
process it to extract plutonium "re-
tal impact statement that would
the process is under way and
veals fundamentally inadequate
examine the options for handling
Makhijani and Saleska should have
technical analysis, a cavalier atti-
the spent fuel that's in those
known that. "One of their premises
tude toward issues of the most se-
ponds.
The conclusions they
is that we are wantonly disregard-
rious nature and a narrow-minded
[the critics] are drawing are based
ing this," he said. "We have ordered
reluctance to consider the intent of
on incorrect assumptions."
the parts and it will be finished by
environmental law."
Energy Department waste man-
the end of this year."
The report, financed by the
agement director Leo Duffy said
Washington state government, was
last week that restarting PUREX
written by Scott Saleska and Arjun
was "one option" under considera-
Makhijani, the institute's president.
tion. But the text of the depart-
Both are longtime critics of the En-
ment's five-year plan for managing
ergy Department's weapons com-
wastes at the weapons complex re-
plex.
fers to a "final campaign to recover
Makhijani said at a news confer-
weapon-grade materials" from the
ence that "there is no good way" of
Hanford fuel, which could only be
removing or neutralizing the spent
done at PUREX.
fuel. But of all possible methods, he
At issue is the fate of 2,100 met-
said, the "most irresponsible" is the
ric tons of spent, or used, fuel rods
plan submitted by DOE's primary
from the Hanford reactor known as
contractor at Hanford: to restart
N-reactor. That reactor, once the
Hanford's Plutonium-Uranium Ex-
primary source of plutonium for
traction facility (PUREX) to pro-
nuclear weapons, has been shut
cess the spent fuel. This is actually
down since 1988 because of simi-
"a back-door way of producing plu-
larity in design to the Soviet reactor
tonium" for nuclear weapons,
that blew up at Chernobyl.
Makhijani said.
PUREX, built in the mid-1950s,
He said the United States has
is a huge factory-like building
more plutonium than it needs for
defense purposes. Activating
EPA in the News
DALLAS MORNING NEWS, 7/9/90,
PRESIDENT IN THE HoT
SEAT
Bush faces increased pressure
By Randy Lee Loftis
Environmental Writer of The Dallas Morning News
to act on global warming issue
HOUSTON Houston's latest
policies on energy and clean air will
industrial chemicals; reforming devel-
promotional slogan, "Houston's Hot,"
cut carbon dioxide emissions by 15
opment-aid policies that encourage en-
will set the stage for what
percent. But the White House refuses
vironmental destruction; protecting
environmentalists and some foreign
to make any formal commitment until
the oceans; aiding population control
leaders want the economic summit to
the Intergovernmental Panel on Cli-
efforts; tying aid for Eastern Europe to
generate: more heat on President Bush
mate Change, the premier scientific
environmental cleanup and energy ef-
to do something about global warming.
group studying the greenhouse effect,
ficiency; and reducing Third World
The president still is preaching a
releases its final report. That is ex-
debt payments.
go-slow sermon concerning the
pected in November.
Some analysts say the greenhouse
greenhouse effect, but to an
effect and other environmental ills
increasingly empty church.
U.S. environmental leaders have
will dominate world economics in the
His most vocal congressional critic
blamed White House Chief of Staff
1990s, partly because global warming
on global environmental issues, Sen.
John Sununu, who often advocates
could spell doom for oil as the world's
Albert Gore, D-Tenn., says he fears
"balancing" environmental and eco-
predominant fuel. Some even suggest
that Mr. Bush will make the United
nomic concerns, for the administra-
that environmental issues will replace
States "an environmental outcast,
tion's cold feet on global warming.
military concerns as the main focus of
isolated within
(the) world com-
The White House sought to counter
international security.
munity."
the criticism during pre-summit meet-
That may be overstated, but signs of
This week's summit is likely to test
ings Sunday. Mr. Bush and Canadian
change are apparent. Last month, Dem-
Mr. Gore's prediction.
Prime Minister Brian Mulroney said
ocrats in the U.S. Senate, including Sam
Armed with a major report calling
they have agreed to begin negotiating
Nunn, chairman of the Armed Services
global warming a genuine threat, West
on acid rain, which is generated by
Committee, called for the redirection
German Chancellor Helmut Kohl is ex-
U.S. air pollution and falls on Cana-
of military and intelligence resources
dian forests.
pected to ask the other summit nations
toward environmental protection.
Mr. Bush told Mr. Mulroney that the
to cut carbon dioxide emissions by 25
Environmentalists aren't the only
pact is "long overdue." Mr. Mulroney
percent within 15 years, a pledge West
ones to sense the momentum on envi-
called it a "significant departure"
Germany has already made.
ronmental politics. Several of the sum-
from past antagonism between the two
That kind of specific commitment is
mit governments are hustling to ap-
nations over acid rain.
unlikely this week, observers say. But
pear as "green" as possible.
Previous economic summits have
Mr. Kohl has some support for his at-
In preparation for the Houston sum-
described global environmental prior-
tack on global warming and Mr.
mit, Great Britain and Japan sent out
ities in such broad terms that Mr. Kohl
Bush is finding fewer allies as the po-
slick color publications touting their
and Mr. Bush could feel comfortable
litical and scientific momentum seems
environmental initiatives. British offi-
with the results.
to turn against him.
cials also distributed background pa-
The environmental communique
"The truth of the matter is that a
pers on tropical rain forests, global
Bush balance of compromise and con-
from the 1989 Paris summit touched on
warming and ozone-destroying chloro-
sensus-building is killing our world,"
virtually every major worldwide con-
fluorocarbons.
said Jay D. Hair, president of the Na-
cern, from the greenhouse effect to
Mrs. Thatcher and her govern-
tional Wildlife Federation.
tropical rain forests, without making
ment's Environment Department ha-
British Prime Minister Margaret
any identifiable commitments.
ven't directly criticized Mr. Bush's en-
Thatcher, no favorite of most environ-
Environmentalists hope to capital-
vironmental policies. But with the
mentalists, now says she's a green-
ize on the split over global warming.
prime minister casting herself as a bro-
house believer. She has committed
On Sunday, a coalition of environmen-
ker of environmental politics, the im-
tal groups from the United States and
plication is that Mr. Bush has dropped
Britain to stabilizing carbon dioxide
emissions at 1990 levels. British envi-
other nations issued an environmental
the ball.
scorecard on each summit nation.
Japan, not generally considered an
ronmentalists aren't satisfied, how-
Their proposals reflect the relation-
environmental leader, has been more
ever.
ship between the global environment
blunt in distancing itself from the
The Japanese government, after
and the global economy. They include
United States. A 16-page Japanese For-
skirting the issue for months, has
made a similar promise, but without
cutting carbon dioxide emissions, with
eign Ministry booklet reminds readers
specific targets.
huge ramifications for energy policies;
that U.S. auto and industrial emissions
slashing ozone-destroying chloroflu-
are five times higher than Japan's. "Ja-
Mr. Bush's aides say current U.S.
orocarbons, among the most important
pan intends to take the initiative" in
protecting the global environment, the
cont'd
EPA in the News
Cont'd
gate rose to criticize U.S. environmen-
tal policies. The scenario was repeated
in a half-dozen global forums this
booklet says.
spring, including one in Washington
U.S. officials have gotten into the
that Mr. Bush hosted.
act, too. The State Department's Agency
When the CFC treaty was renegoti-
for International Development sent out
ated in London two weeks ago, the
press releases June 28 saying it wants
United States backed down on helping
to hire 60 environmental experts in the
its neighbors protect the ozone. It
next three years and promising to re-
joined 92 other countries in endorsing
form its policies to reflect environmen-
the aid - something the administra-
tal concerns. The agency also made a
tion had said for months that it would
not do.
pre-summit pledge to be a worldwide
force for the environmental good.
The U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency sent to the summit stacks of
brochures on its activities - but didn't
send its administrator, William Reilly.
Mr. Reilly had thought he might be in-
cont'd
vited, as he was to Paris last year, but
the call never came.
Some environmental observers say
they've found little substance to match
the image-making.
"For unleashing the greatest num-
ber of speeches, reports and confer-
ences in the shortest amount of time,
the global warming issue is hard to
beat," Michael G. Renner of the
Worldwatch Institute wrote recently
in World Watch.
None of the economic summit na-
tions may be able to get away with
wearing the white hat on global warm-
ing. The summit may be a gathering of
the guilty.
Figures from the World Resources
Institute show that although all re-
gions share blame for greenhouse-caus-
ing gases, few can match the summit
nations' responsibility. With 11.9 per-
cent of the world's population, they
emit 33 percent of the emissions that
cause global warming.
The United States is far and away
the biggest greenhouse polluter. It has
4.7 percent of the world's population
and releases 17.6 percent of green-
house-causing gases, according to
World Resources 1990-91, the World Re-
sources Institute's almanac.
Given such a record, it has been
tough for the White House to keep ig-
noring the critics. Just two weeks ago,
evidence cropped up that the pressure
may be working.
Earlier this year, administration of-
ficials said Mr. Bush would oppose eco-
nomic aid to help poorer nations wean
themselves from chlorofluorocarbons
- a big issue in India and China,
where plans to boost CFC use could
offset other countries' reductions.
At a recent CFC negotiating session
in Bergen, Norway, delegate after dele-
The Washington Post
JUL
28
1990
Frozen World Holds Warming Clues
Scientists Drilling Through 200,000 Years of Greenland Ice Sheet
AI
By William Booth
group of Europeans who are drilling
and several feet wide, where the
a companion core 20 miles from the
samples are processed.
Washington Post Staff Writer
Americans' site. Together their
Researchers bundled in parkas
THE SUMMIT, Greenland-High above the
work should provide some of the
and snow pants bombard the ice
Arctic Circle, in a flat white world of snow and ice,
most detailed records ever gath-
with laser beams and electric jolts.
scientists are drilling a hole through time.
In the most ambitious ice drilling project ever
ered linking past climate to rising
They sift and sniff the ice for traces
and falling levels of carbon dioxide.
of volcanic acids and dust, for
attempted, two teams of European and American
The Americans and Europeans
greenhouse gases such as carbon
researchers are boring down through more than
dioxide and methane and for the
two miles of ice-the compressed snow of ancient
have come to a world that is as dif-
winters-searching for the trapped air bubbles and
ficult as it is beautiful. It is a place
special species of heavy hydrogen
entombed crystals that will reveal what the weather
where the summer sun wheels
and heavy oxygen whose abun-
was like during the past 200,000 years.
around the sky, but never sets, and
dances tell the temperature when
the snow fell.
The scientists hope that by understanding the
flakes of snow called ice diamonds
Last week the Americans' main
past, and learning what pushes the swinging pen-
glitter in the air like a hallucination.
drill reached 412 feet and brought
dulum of climate, they can predict the future, which
It is so cold that even in the labo-
to the surface ice that researchers
many fear will bring a rapid and unprecedented
ratory, built in a trench in the snow,
estimate was deposited in the year
warming caused by the accumulation of pollution in
the computers must be swaddled in
1569, about half a century before
the atmosphere.
heating pads to protect them from
the Pilgrims landed in the New
Here on the summit of Greenland-the highest
subzero temperatures.
World and right in the middle of a
point on the vast ice mound that almost completely
And because the summit is
period of worldwide coolness known
covers the world's largest island-they seek an an-
10,200 feet above sea level, the air
as the Little Ice Age.
swer to the most pressing question in climatology:
is so thin that newly arrived re-
Such precise dating to the exact
will rising levels of carbon dioxide and methane heat
searchers stumble around for a few
year is possible for at least the first
the Earth and melt the polar ice caps? And if so,
days like zombies, chewing aspirin
5,000 years. The scientists date the
how fast?
and sucking on oxygen bottles to
core by looking for evidence of
Already there is preliminary evidence from ice
kill the pounding headaches and
cores drilled by Soviet researchers in Antarctica
known events, such as historically
nausea caused by the sudden ascent
that rising levels of carbon dioxide gas at the end of
dated volcanic eruptions, which
to high altitude.
the last ice age preceded an increase in tempera-
they compare with known rates of
The plan is to drill to the bedrock
ture, a discovery that could bolster the most pop-
ice accumulation and the flow and
of Greenland, down through nearly
ular scenarios of global warming. But the record is
two miles, or more than 10,000
dynamics of the glacier itself.
still hazy and the measurements are imprecise
feet, of ice. Begun last summer, the
By summer's end, the research-
work proceeds this year. The cut-
ers hope to reach past ice laid down
enough that it is possible the warm-
ting is done by a hollow tube with a
when Jesus was born, to the time of
ing did not come until thousands of
years after the carbon dioxide rose.
sawtoothed end. It spins, grinding a
the pyramids about 2800 B.C. At
As such, the relationship between
circle around the ice that becomes
the close of the project three years
carbon dioxide and climate remains
the core as it is surrounded by the
from now, the ice could be as much
descending drill. Piece by piece, the
as 200,000 years old-snow that
shrouded in mystery.
"There's great urgency in the
researchers and technicians then
fell before anatomically modern hu-
pull six-foot and twelve-foot lengths
man beings evolved.
work," said Paul Mayewski of the
of ice core to the surface.
For scientists clever enough to
University of New Hampshire. "The
Like new babies, the ice cores
read the clues, ice can reveal evi-
ice has trapped the past and held it
for us to rediscover."
must be handled with care. Upon
dence that helps them date the core
delivery from the hole at the drill
with considerable precision.
Mayewski is the scientific coor-
site, the cores are rushed to a fro-
Researchers, for example, can
dinator for the second Greenland
zen laboratory dug into the snow
see in the dust trapped in the ice
Ice Sheet Project, a $15 million
itself, a long trench 12 feet deep
evidence of annual summer winds
venture, involving more than 30
that have swept the Gobi Desert for
U.S. investigators, assisted by the
thousands of years, thereby giving
Polar Ice Coring Office at the Uni-
them a dusty equivalent to the an-
versity of Alaska and funded by the
nual growth rings of trees. They
National Science Foundation. Col-
laborating with the Americans is a
CONTINUED
55
CONTINUED
The Washington Post
JUL 28 1990
can watch the sulfur levels begin to
Ken Taylor of the University of
rise at the dawn of the industrial
Nevada, for example, runs electric
age. Layers of radioactive fallout
probes across the ice to measure
pinpoint the fire at Chernobyl in
acidity. When more electricity pass-
1986 and atomic bomb tests on the
es through the ice, it usually means
Bikini Atoll in 1946. By watching
the ice is more acid and that is usu-
for traces of methanesulfonic acid, a
ally the result of hydrogen sulfate
substance one smells at low tide,
being dumped by volcanos. So with
the scientists can also gauge and
his electric probes, Taylor can see
time the biological productivity of
signs of eruptions. He already has
7,000 years before continental ice
marine plants in the North Atlantic,
detected the eruptions of dozens of
began melting at the close of the
which themselves might play an
known volcanoes, from Mount St.
great ice age that ended 140,000
important role in altering climate,
Helens in 1980 to the Laki erup-
years ago, presumably as a result of
according to Eric Saltzman of the
tion, which blew in Iceland in 1783.
warming temperatures. A similar
University of Miami, who is exam-
Eventually, Taylor hopes to find the
finding accompanied the end of the
ing the ice in Greenland.
eruption that buried Pompeii in 79
last ice age some 18,000 years ago.
The scientists are interested in
A.D.
"It is a question of thresholds,"
dates because they want to time the
Another investigator, Michael
Sowers said. "Is the carbon dioxide
Earth's cooling and warming cycles.
driving the system or responding? It
For a glaciologist such as Richard
Ram of the State University of New
may be that things happen in differ-
Alley of Pennsylvania State Univer-
York in Buffalo, is attempting to
ent ways depending on whether or
sity, the Greenland ice can be read
date the ice by the dust trapped in
not the Earth is moving into or out
like geological sediment. Alley can
it. Using a laser beam to scatter
of glacial periods."
back-light a segment of core and
light through melted ice, Ram said
At present, the uncertainities
see light and dark layers left by the
he can spot the seasonal increases
loom. In addition to the apparent
summer melts and the winter
in a certain type of grit known to
lag between a rise in carbon dioxide
storms. He believes that he can
blow off the Gobi Desert during
and warming, there are signs that
date ice accurately by counting the
spring and summer storms. Though
climate may resist change for many
seasons back to about 750 years
his technique is unproved, Ram be-
years and then suddenly jump to a
ago. After that, dating by eye be-
lieves he and his colleagues will be
warmer phase. Perhaps, some sci-
comes almost impossible.
able to date the ice by Gobi dust
entists argue, such a sudden sur-
One reason for the difficulty is
back as far as 10,000 years.
prise is in store-perhaps sooner,
that deep down, where the pressure
Researchers know the planet
perhaps much later-as a result of
becomes greater, ice begins to
moves through a cycle of ice ages
humanity's currently growing out-
compress and flow. "It stretches
and warmer interglacial periods
put of greenhouse gases.
and thins like taffy," Alley said. "It
based on the timing of the slow
"Ice is an amazing scientific me-
shears and twists and flows. The
wobble in Earth's axis. But they
dium," said Alley of Penn State. "If
visual data gets really flakey and
also know that increases and de-
we were just clever enough to un-
shakey the further back you go."
creases in carbon dioxide and other
derstand what it is telling us."
The Greenland ice sheet flows to-
greenhouse gases accompany cli-
ward the sea like a ponderous river.
mate change. Are these gases caus-
Indeed, the drilling site itself may
ing the temperature to rise or are
be moving toward the sea at 10 feet
they simply a byproduct? Will the
a year. This motion can make it dif-
current burning of fossil fuels and
ficult to date older ice precisely.
forests put enough extra carbon
But researchers are devising ways
dioxide into the atmosphere to sig-
around the problem.
nificantly alter climate? "That's the
million-dollar question," Alley said.
ASIA
Preliminary evidence from ice
Site of drilling
world's deepest
North
cores retrieved by the Soviets at
ice core
Pole
Vostok station in Antarctica, the
coldest spot on Earth, suggests in-
creases in carbon dioxide preceded
warming. More than a mile of Vos-
NORTH
AMERICA
Greenland
tok ice examined by Todd Sowers
and Michael Bender of the Univer-
sity of Rhode Island suggest that
carbon dioxide levels rose 3,000 to
Atlantic Ocean
56
The New York Times
JUL
31
1990
Heat Is More Lethal
When It Is Unusual,
In the South and Southwest, he said,
Researchers Find
the summer norm may itself bring
extremely high temperatures, but in
the absence of a sudden jump to
another level of heat stress, there is
no spurt in deaths. Since Southerners
York, and is essentially the same kind
are acclimated to the higher tem-
Killer air masses are
of system in each city. But so far it
peratures they normally experience,
has been studied most thoroughly in
those normal temperatures cause no
St. Louis.
a matter of hot air,
more deaths, per capita, than the
There it brings temperatures that
lower temperatures Northerners nor-
not pollution.
cil
reach at least 96 degrees, the recently
mally experience.
established threshold for a surge in
The researchers have ruled out the
mortality in that city. It also displays
possibility that the most susceptible
a number of other features that dis-
By WILLIAM K. STEVENS
people have already succumbed in
tinguish it from nine other kinds of
the South.
summer air masses, some of them
The paper in Environmental
HAT New Yorkers and
also quite hot, and it combines humid
W
Health Perspectives is the latest in a
other Northerners con-
air from the tropics with dry, torrid
series by Dr. Kalkstein and col-
sider a heat wave often
air borne on winds from southwest-
leagues that in the last 14 months
feels like a routine sum-
ern deserts. These huge systems orig-
have dealt with regional variations in
mer day to residents of Dallas or
inate in one part of the United States
weather-related deaths.
Phoenix or Jacksonville. Now scien-
but retain their coherence as they
In the early 1980's, Dr. Kalkstein
tists say that such feelings are not
move from region to region. They
devised a new index of weather dis-
just a matter of discomfort, but also
bring clear skies and high nighttime
of life and death. Heat, they have
temperatures that in St. Louis stayn-
comfort, the weather stress index. It
found, generally begins killing people
ear 80 degrees.
assumed that the discomfort caused
at lower temperatures in New York
This air mass dominates St. Louis's
by any given set of weather condi-
and other Northern cities than in the
summer weather only 7 percent of
tions varies depending on the normal
South and Southwest, where people
the time on the average. It appears
weather people are used to in their
are more acclimated to hot weather.
several times in some ye ars and not
area. Developed under a contract
And in an attempt to create an
at all in others. When it does arrive it
with the National Oceanographic and
early warning system for killer heat
generally stays in place for several
Atmospheric Administration, the
waves, scientists have lately identi-
days. The longer it stays, the more
measure is incorporated in the dis-
fied a special set of climatic condi-
people die, as many as 10 to 20 a day
comfort indexes of today's routine
tions that appear to send summer
in a big city.
weather reports.
death rates soaring and that also
"By the time the fifth day rolls
Now Dr. Kalkstein and colleagues
have much to do with the regional
around, you are killing a lot of peo-
in both government and academia
variations in mortality thresholds.
ple," said Dr. Laurence S. Kalkstein
have extended their research on re-
Not just any stretch of extremely
of the University of Delaware's Cen-
gional differences from discomfort to
hot weather, they have found, trips
ter for Climatic Research, who has
mortality and the role of large weath-
the temperature threshold switch
come up with the findings. A special-
er systems in boosting it.
that causes mortality to soar. Rather,
ist in the field of medical climatology,
Among the findings common to all
the switch is tripped by one special,
he is now a visiting scientist at the
areas of the country is that heat, not
sharply defined sort of extremely hot,
Environmental Protection Agency in
air pollution, is the primary short-
humid, oppressive air mass that only
Washington, where he coordinates a
term killer associated with summer
infrequently develops over a given
major research project on the health
weather systems. "Over the long
area, overwhelming people's ability
implications of global warming.
run," Dr. Kalkstein said, "air pollu-
to adapt. If its arrival and duration
According to a preliminary analy-
tion is very damaging to human
can be reliably forecast, the scientists
sis of a selected sample of 10 cities by
health." But on a day-to-day level, he
believe, cautionary warnings can be
Dr. Kalkstein, three besides New
said, it appears that heat rather than
issued and lives can be saved.
York and St. Louis are apt to be
the more concentrated pollution that
Case Study: St. Louis
visited by a killing air mass: Boston,
often accompanies it is more impor-
The extraordinarily oppressive
Philadelphia and Memphis. Chicago
tant in pushing susceptible people
and San Francisco are susceptible to
over the edge.
weather system responsible for most
a lesser degree.
heat-related deaths is described in a
paper to be published in a forthcom-
Dangerously Out of the Norm
ing issue of the journal Environmen-
What makes these air masses so
tal Health Perspectives. It can afflict
deadly, said Dr. Kalkstein, is that
any number of cities, including New
their particular combination of fea-
tures suddenly pushes the level of
heat stress far above the summer
CONTINUED
norm to which people have become
adapted. In Northeastern cities, he
said, "a hot, oppressive air mass
doesn't occur that often, so it has
tremendous impact."
35
The New York Times
JUL 31 1990
CONTINUED
Mortality data are not yet available.
for this year's hot spells in Phoenix;
Los Angeles, New York, Washington
and other cities, but Dr. Kalkstein
because the weather station where it
said he had "no doubt" that they have
was taken is at the airport, which is
caused a lot of damage. The mid-July
cooled by the nearby ocean; tempera-
hot spell in New York, with its tem-
tures downtown and in the valleys are
peratures in the 90's, was "a candi-"
higher.) In many southern and south-
date" for the most-damaging catego-
western cities that are normally hot
ry, he said, but its impact may have
and whose residents have become
been less than it would have been,
acclimated, no threshold can be de-
say, in June because heat waves be-
tected and excess deaths generally do
come less damaging later in the sea-
not occur. Phoenix has been one such
son. This is because people become:
city. The big question now, Dr. Kalk-
more acclimated as the season pro-
stein said, is whether the 120-degree-
gresses, Dr. Kalkstein believes.
plus temperatures recorded in Phoe-
Last year, Dr. Kalkstein and a col-
nix earlier this year - by far the
league, Robert E. Davis of the Uni-
highest ever - were such a big de-
versity of Virginia, reported on a.
parture from the norm that heat-
study of mortality data and tempera-
related deaths soared for the first
ture records that revealed the region-
time.
al differences in susceptibility to
Changes in the local environment,
heat. For a number of cities, they™
especially development and construc-
established threshold temperatures
tion, are probably responsible for
at which deaths begin to rise.
whatever change may be taking
Fatal Temperatures Vary
place in Phoenix's climate, he said,
although global warming could have'
In New York, for instance, the', similar effects over a broader area in
threshold is 92 degrees; in St. Louis, the future.
96; in Dallas, 103; and in Los Angeles,
81. (The Los Angeles figure is low
City Heat: Thresholds of Danger
When daily maximum heat exceeded thresholds in these cities, deaths rose
significantly. In other cities studied, thresholds could not be established.
Seattle
87
Minneapolis
Detroit
Boston
Casper
93
90
85
Milwaukee
94
Salt Lake City
90
New York
99
Chicago
92
91
Cincinnati
Pittsburgh
Philadelphia
San Francisco
92
86
92
84
Denver
Kansas City
St. Louis
94
99
96
Los Angeles*
81
Memphis
Little Rock
99
San Diego*
Atlanta
99
83
94
Phoenix
112
Dallas
Birmingham
Jackson
96
103
98
* Airport temperature readings.
Miami
Source: Laurence S. Kalkstein, Annais
93
of the Association of American Geographers
36
1
DEVELOPING THE COMPREHENSIVE APPROACH:
How CAN SCIENCE HELP?
DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE, 19 JUNE 1990
DAN ALBRITTON, NOAA
THIS INTRODUCTION
THINGS NOT AT ISSUE
(WE HOLD THESE TRUTHS TO BE
SELF- EVIDENT "
KEY SCIENTIFIC FACTORS IN
(WHAT is THE ROLE OF
THE COMPREHENSIVE APPROACH
EACH ?)
FOREACH FACTOR: - How WELL IS IT KNOWN?
- WHAT ARE THE MAJOR UNCERTAINTIES?
- WHAT IS THE STATUS OF THE RESEARCH?
SECONDARY FACTORS
(WHAT SHOULD ONE BE AWARE OF?)
SPECIFIC SUGGESTIONS (FOR WHATEVER THEY ARE WORTH!)
TO THIS GROUP
2
THINGS NOT AT ISSUE
1
THE "ARENA" OF CHOICE FOR THE COMPARITIVE INDEX IS.
TRACE SPECIES
VIS-À-VIS
I.E.,
RADIATIVE FORCING
THE CLIMATE SYSTEM
CLIMATE CHANGE FORCINGS
s
who
PHYSICAL PROCESSES
NN
ATMOSPHERE
ICE
COCEAN=
1
PHYSICAL RESPONSES
BIOLOGICAL PROCESSES
$
RATIONALE:
IMPACTS
KNOWLEDGE is MAXIMUM THERE
3
2
CO2 is NOT THE WHOLE TRACE-GAS/CLIMATE PICTURE.
THERE ARE OTHER GREENHOUSE MOLECULES -
TROPOSPHERIC OZONE - -O3
METHANE - CH4
CFM's - "FREONS"
NITROUS OXIDE - N2O
CO2
THEIR ABUNDANCES ARE INCREASING -
?
"RECENT"
METHANE (ppm)
2.0
ICE CORE
ATMOSPHERIC
DATA
DATA
10
0.5
3000 1000 300 100
o
You ARE HERE
YEARS AGO
THEIR GREENHOUSE EFFECT IS COMPARABLE TO CO2 -
0.2
COMPARABLE
WARMINGS
DEGREES U
0.
o
CO2 CH4 N2O CFM's
THEY ARE ALSO CHEMICALLY ACTIVE -
2
NITROGEN
s
OXIDES
O3
ACIDS
OH + POLLUTANTS
Toxics
ORGANICS
H2O
HARMLESS
OTHERS
THE POLICY-RELEVANT TRACE GAS PROPERTIES
POSED
POLICY
QUESTIONS
CAN SCIENCE DEVISE A COMPARATIVE INDEX
THAT REPRESENTS THE RELATIVE RADIATIVE
FORCING OF THE TRACE SPECIES.
CAN A UNIVERSAL EMISSIONS ABATEMENT
APPROACH BE IMPLEMENTED?
THE SCIENCE:
THERE ARE 3 MAJOR TRACE GAS PROPERTIES
THAT RELATE TO THESE QUESTIONS.
FOR EACH SPECIES (E.G., CO2, METHANE, OR CFC):
1
How WELL DOES
IT ABSORB/RADIATE
2
INFRARED RADIATION?
How LONG DOES
IT RESIDE IN
THE ATMOSPHERE?
(1990)
(2090)
3
How WELL IS THE
SOURCE UNDERSTOOD?
(THE DETAILS
)
5
1
MOLECULAR RADIATIVE PROPERTY
MAJOR POINTS:
THEY VARY CONSIDERABLY.
CALC. RADIATIVE
FORCING
EXAMPLES:
CO2
1 (REFERENCE)
METHANE (CH4)
21
NITROUS OXIDE (N2O)
206
CFCs
12000- 18000
CARBON TET. (CCI4)
5700
HCFC-22
11000
THEY ARE RELATIVELY VERY WELL KNOWN.
THEY ARE BASED ON:
MOLECULAR SPECTROSCOPY
"UNDERSTANDING
INDEX"
100
MOLECULAR RADIATIVE
RADIATIVE SCATTERING
10
FACTOR
1
RESEARCH is ONGOING ON UNCERTAINTIES.
EXAMPLES: BAND STRENGTHS OF CFC-SUBSTITUTES
OTHER POINTS:
THE RELATIVE EFFECT DEPENDS SOMEWHAT ON:
THE ATMOSPHERIC ABUNDANCE (* TODAY'S ATMOSPHERE)
H2O & TEMPERATURE PROFILES
ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT CLOUDS
REFERENCE FOR FLUX
...
But REASONABLE PEOPLE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH A COMMON ACCEPTABLE APPROACH
!
6
2
ATMOSPHERIC LIFETIME
THE RESIDENCE TIME IS A MEASURE OF THE TIME THAT
A MOLECULE FORCES THE RADIATION BALANCE.
(1990) RESIDENCE & TIME -
(2090)
SOURCE
SINK
LIFETIMES VARY SUBSTANTIALLY.
EXAMPLES:
CFC-115
400 YEARS
CFC- 12
130
CO2
N 100*
CFC-11
65
CH4
10
THEY DEPEND ON THE NATURE OF THE "SINK."
CFCs
STRATOSPHERIC UV BREAKUP - SLOW
CH4
TROPOSPHERIC CHEMICAL REMOVAL - FASTER
THE DEGREE OF UNDERSTANDING VARIES.
STRATOSPHERIC BREAKUP -"VERY GOOD" (GOOD CLEAN PHYSICS)
& CONFIRMED BY OBSERVATIONS!
TROPOSPHERIC REMOVAL - "FAIR ESTIMATE" (COMPLEX CHEMISTRY)
CIRCULATION AMONG RESEVOIRS - - "POOR" (CO2)
"SATURATION" OF SINK -"UNKNOWN" (BIOSPHERE? CO2?)
[CON'T]
7
GREENHOUSE WARMING POTENTIAL (GWP) IS THE PRODUCT
OF MOLECULAR RADIATIVE FACTOR AND LIFETIME.
EXAMPLES:
GWP: OVER
20
100
500 YEARS
CO2
1
1
1 (REFERENCE)
CH4
63
21
9
N2O
270
290
190
CFC-11
4500
3500
1500
(NOTE THAT AGREEMENT WILL HAVE TO BE REACHED ON
THE TIME HORIZON)
(THE UNCERTAIN CO2 "LIFETIME" is A SERIOUS COMPLICATION.)
THE LIFETIME IS AN EXTREMELY POLICY RELEVANT
PROPERTY.
LONG LIFETIMES: WE CAN'T QUIT THE GAME AFTER WE
DISCOVER THAT WE ARE DEALT LOSING
HANDS.
EMISSION
EMISSION
CHANGE
CHANGE
ABUNDANCE
(HCFC-22)
ABUNDANCE
(CFC-115)
SHORT LIFETIME
LONG LIFETIME
TIME
TIME
A BROAD SPECTRUM OF RESEARCH IS UNDERWAY.
BIOSPHERIC PROCESSES
MOLECULAR RADIATIVE
ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY
100
FACTOR
OCEANIC CIRCULATION
FLUX TECHNIQUES
INDEX"
10
LIFETIME
(SERUAL AGENCIES)
1
=
8
3
THE NATURE OF THE SOURCE/SINK
How WELL DO WE UNDERSTAND THEM ?
(AND HENCE HOW AMENABLE ARE THEY TO THOUGHTFUL,
QUANTITATIVE, & DEFENSIBLE ALTERATION?)
THERE IS QUITE A SPECTRUM:
PURELY INDUSTRIAL: CHLOROFLUOROCARBONS
F
1/3 (MONITERED CLOSELY)
COMBUSTION: CARBON DIOXIDE
FOSSIL FUELS 63 + 3%
HUMAN INFLUENCED
NATURAL PROCESSES: METHANE
RICE AGRICULTURE- 6-30%
SUBSTANTIALLY UNKNOWN: NITROUS OXIDE
Vs. you
FACTOR OF 2
SOIL
OCEAN
SINKS ARE GENERALLY MORE POORLY KNOWN THAN SOURCES.
EXAMPLES:
CO2 SOURCES: COMBUSTION (WELL KNOWN)
SINKS VEGETATION, OCEANS (NOT AS WELL)
GENERALLY NATURAL PROCESSES
[CON'T]
9
IDENTIFICATION/GUATICATIO (THE LATTER IS HARDER!)
ILLUSTRATIVE CASES: (ASSUME AN AGREED-UPON COMPARATIVE
INDEX)
NATION X PROPOSES TO REDUCE ITS FORCING BY:
SCIENTIFICALLY DEFENSIBLE?
(1) XXX CO2-EQUIVALENTS OF CFC,
BY REDUCTION OF REFRIDGERATION USE - STRAIGHTFORWARD
(2) YYY CO2-EQUIVALENTS OF CH4
BY CHANGING CATTLE FEED
- MUCH, MUCH HARDER
THE NEEDED SCIENTIFIC "PRODUCT" IS SOURCE/SINK
CHARACTERIC ALGORITHMS.
FARMING TECHNIQUE
TRACE GAS
INDUSTRIAL METHOD
EMISSION
ANIMAL HUSBANDRY
RATE
FUGITIVE FACTORS
DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION
LAND USE
THERE ARE A NUMBER OF RELATED RESEACH THRUSTS
UNDERWAY OR PLANNED.
FAIR QUESTIONS:
100
MOLECULAR RADIATIVE
HOW AWARE ARE
FACTOR
THEY OF YOUR
NEEDS ?
LIFETIME
GAPS RELATIVE
"UNDERSTANDING
10
INDEX"
NATURE OF SOURCE
HENCE, ARE THERE
(INDUSTRIAL)
TO YOUR NEEDS?
1
NATURE OF SOURCE
(NATURAL
PROCESS)
10
SECOND - ORDER POINTS RELATIVE TO THE COMPARATIVE INDEX
NON-IR GASES CAN INFLUENCE THE IR GASES.
EXAMPLE:
HYDROXYL RADICAL
METHANE, HCFC
POLLUTANTS
(NOX,VOCS,...)
ABUNDANCE
LIFETIME
ISSUES / PHENOMENA ARE COUPLED.
EXAMPLE:
METHANE :
INFLUENCES STRATOSPHERIC OZONE.
PARTICIPATES IN RADIATIVE FORCING.
SOME GASES HAVE upr AND DOWN! SIDES.
EXAMPLE:
CO2:
PLANT GROWTH
RADIATIVE FORCING
MONITORING OF ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATIONS OF
TRACE GASES CANNOT YET YIELD SOURCE
SINK STRENGTHS.
MAYBE OVER NEXT SEVERAL YEARS, INVERSION
METHODS CAN GIVE CONTINENTAL- SCALE VALUES
FOR LONG-LIVED SPECIES.
DIRECT MONITORING OF FLUXES ON USEFULLY LARGE
SCALES is BEYOND THE STATE OF THE ART.
HENCE "PROXIES" ARE WHAT WE MUST DEAL WITH IN
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
EXAM E: TONNES COAL
CO2 FLUX
PER YEAR
11
SOME SUGGESTIONS (RELATIVE TO THE SCIENCE)
Focus ON PRIMARY ISSUES FIRST : LIFETIMES &
NATURE OF SOURCE/SINK.
THERE IS ENOUGH THERE FOR AN EXTENDED, BUSY 1ST PHASE!
USE THE IPCC WG 1 FULL REPORT AS THE MAJOR
RESOURCE FOR LAYING out WHAT is KNOWN.
IT IS VERY GOOD!
IT is SCIENTIFICALLY BROAD BASED AND RIGOROUS.
THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE U.S. INPUT /INVOLVEMENT.
IT ALREADY HAS AN INTERNATIONAL BASIS.
EXPLICTLY CONSIDER MECHANISMS FOR ACCOMADATING
SCIENTIFIC IMPROVEMENTS OF SUBSTANTIAL
MAGNITUDES.
E.G., WOULD A MAJOR CHANGE IN CO2 "LIFETIME" CAUSE
SHOCKS THAT WOULD BRING THE INTERNATIONAL
"CURRENCY" MARKET DOWN?
SUCH SCIENCE BREAKTHROUGHS ARE QUITE LIKELY.
BUILD A GOOD WORKING RELATION WITH THE CEES'S
U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM.
THEY ARE PLANNING MUCH OF THE RESEARCH THAT
YOU NEED DONE.
BRIEF THEM ON YOUR PLANS/NEEDS.
REQUEST THAT THEY ANALYZE HOW THE U.S. GCRP
WILL MEET YOUR NEEDS. WHEN?
EXAMINE THE FY 1991 PLAN WHEN AVAILABLE (~3 WEEKS)
REQUEST THE CO2 & CH4 CROSS cuts WHEN
COMPLETED.
FOLLOW THE TALK ABOUT AN "IPCC ROUND Two".
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
JUL 24 1990
Scientist Who Exposed Global Warming
Proposes Satellites for Climate Research
By BoB DAVIS
that a global warming trend had begun.
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Last year, he became a cause celebre
WASHINGTON - James Hansen, the
when the White House Office of Manage-
NASA scientist who helped make the
ment and Budget tried to censor his testi-
"greenhouse effect" an international issue,
mony. This year, the quiet, determined di-
is proposing a $200 million satellite pro-
rector of NASA's Goddard Institute for
gram to settle the question of whether the
Space Studies in New York is taking on
Earth is warming and why.
NASA's vast EOS project.
The climate satellite proposal, which
NASA envisions launching a half-dozen
has circulated among scientists, already
$3 billion satellites, which would carry as
has provoked considerable controversy. It
many as 16 different instruments to study
calls into question the necessity and timing
the Earth, including some as big as cars.
of a gargantuan National Aeronautics and
The first satellite, EOS-A, is scheduled for
Space Administration satellite program,
launch in 1998 and five others will follow
called the Earth Observing System, or
over 15 years. The National Space Council,
EOS, which could cost as much as $50 bil-
led by Vice President Dan Quayle, is con-
lion over 25 years.
cerned about the cost and risk of the proj-
Mr. Hansen's proposal comes out of a
ect and is considering whether to restruc-
series of private meetings that Sen. Albert
ture it.
Gore (D., Tenn. ), chairman of the space
Mr. Hansen says the EOS satellites, al-
and science subcommittee, has held with
ready three years behind schedule, are
about 20 environmental scientists. Sen.
bound to fall further behind-leaving cli-
Gore says he plans to release a number of
mate scientists with big gaps in needed
proposals in October to accelerate climate
data. He says NASA could fund the climate
research. "Something like what (Mr. Han-
satellites out of a portion of the EOS proj-
sen is proposing does make sense," the
ect devoted to smaller satellites.
senator said.
But EOS officials think that Mr. Hansen
Essentially, Mr. Hansen suggests taking
is underestimating the cost of his climate
three instruments off EOS and NASA's
satellites and that his project would siphon
proposed space station and putting them
funds from EOS, undercutting support for
on a relatively small satellite, which would
the program. "The dumbest thing to do is
study clouds, water vapor and particles
to say maybe EOS ought to slip a year to
suspended in the atmosphere. If NASA
solve Jim Hansen's problems," said Ger-
launches two climate satellites, for about
ald Soffen, EOS's project scientist.
$200 million, starting in 1995, Mr. Hansen
Two NASA scientists at the agency's
predicts, the satellites would yield enough
Langley Research Center sent Mr. Hansen
information to settle the central debate
a six-page letter criticizing his proposal as
over global warming by the end of the dec-
too limited because it fails to consider
ade.
other environmental problems EOS will
"It would answer the questions of
address, such as ozone depletion, acid rain
whether the Earth is warming and whether
and deforestation. Berrien Moore, a Uni-
humans are the cause of that," Mr. Han-
versity of New Hampshire scientist in-
sen said. An article giving details of his
volved with EOS, said he doubts that the
proposal is scheduled to be published in the
fall issue of Issues in Science and Technol-
climate satellites will settle the global-
warming issue. "I don't think you'll get a
ogy, a publication of the National Acad-
smoking gun," he said.
emy of Sciences.
The climate satellites would focus on
For his part, Mr. Hansen says he
the role of clouds, Mr. Hansen said. Gener-
doesn't want to kill EOS, which will pro-
ally, clouds cool the Earth by reflecting
vide data needed to make better predic-
sunlight back into space-something akin
tions of how the climate will change in dif-
to a giant window blind. But scientists
ferent places on Earth. But he is willing
don't know whether cloud coverage is in-
to forgo EOS data for a time to answer
creasing or what kinds of clouds predomin-
what he considers a more pressing ques-
ate, leading to big differences in the sever-
tion sooner.
ity of global change predicted by different
The criticism of Mr. Hansen's proposal
computer models. "Climate satellites are a
is overlaid with a sense of consternation
must," said Veerabhadran Ramanathan, a
about Mr. Hansen's ability to dominate the
University of Chicago climate specialist.
global-warming debate and fear of his pop-
Mr. Hansen's proposal puts him in the
ularity in Congress. If the climate satellite
spotlight for the third year in a row. In
approach proves popular, Mr. Moore said,
1988, he set off alarms about global change
"There's a high probability that Congress
by testifying in Congress, during a blister-
will say we'll throw up a $200 million satel-
ing heat wave, that he was "99%" certain
lite and buy out of the (EOS project."
17
THE CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR
JUL 24 1990
More Fuel for the Global Warming Debate
P.13
P
ROPHETS of global warming are
atmospheric temperature is due to El Niño
To further confuse things, geology pro-
having a hard time making the case
effects. This means that these effects tend to
fessor William E. Leonhard and research
that Earth is already heating up. No
mask any human-driven warming, unless El
fellow R. V. Krishnamurthy, at the Califor-
sooner does 1990 give us the warmest
Niños are themselves somehow affected by
nia Institute of Technology, have found tree-
Northern Hemisphere spring on record
the rise in carbon dioxide, methane, and
ring evidence of a warming trend going
than studies appear that muddy the issue.
other heat-trapping gases that are accumu-
back hundreds of years. It may have begun
Last March, Roy W. Spencer of the NASA
lating as a result of human activity.
before any human-driven greenhouse effect
Marshall Spaceflight Center and John R.
The uncorrected data show a fairly uni-
would have started.
Christv of the University of Alabama re-
form drop in global temperature from 1959
So far, they have studied 23 trees. These
ported that the first 10 years of relevant
to 1965, followed by an irregular warming.
indicate a warming since at least 160 years
satellite data (1979-1988) show no net
The five warmest years are in the 1980s.
ago. One tree suggests the trend could be as
warming. Yet the decade had some of the
The record high is 0.42 degrees
old as 500 years. If their anal-
warmest years on record. They noted that
C (0.76 degrees F) above the
ROBERT C.
ysis is supported by other evi-
two strong El Niño events - shifts in Pacific
three-decade average. Cor-
COWEN
dence, this will add yet another
Ocean currents - in 1983 and 1987 pro-
rected for El Niño effects, the
natural influence on global
duced a temporary global warming. The in-
data not only show a much
temperatures to take into ac-
termediate years of 1984, 1985, and 1986
smaller overall warming, but
count.
were colder. The warmest year was 1987.
1989 also becomes the warmest
None of this means we can
Now James Angell, a National Oceanic
year of the 1958-1989 study pe-
ignore man-made global
and Atmospheric Administration climatolo-
riod, not 1988 as the unaltered
warming. Human activity al-
gist, has extended a comparable analysis
record suggests (or 1987 in the
ready has added around 2.2
back to 1958. He explains in the current
satellite data).
watts per square meter to the
issue of Geophysical Research Letters that El
The bottom line, Angell says,
atmosphere's natural green-
Niños, which are associated with unusually
is that his study "emphasizes the
house heat-trapping of 151
warm sea-surface temperatures in the
need for extreme caution in using the tem-
watts per square meter of Earth's surface av-
eastern tropical Pacific, have a strong effect
peratures of particular years as evidence for
eraged over the entire planet and for a full
on lower-atmosphere temperature world-
or against a greenhouse effect." He also
year. There's little dispute about that. The
wide. Once the El Niño warming is removed
notes that even the unaltered record shows
annoying fact is that nobody yet can deter-
from the data, the reported rise of global air
a year-to-year variability of 0.20 degrees C.
mine whether this has begun to raise the
temperature since 1965 drops by a third.
"This relatively large interannual variability
global temperature or merely is expressed
Indeed, he finds that 50 to 55 percent of
makes it difficult to determine the long-term
in other effects such as undetected changes
the annual variance in global average lower-
trends," he says.
of cloudiness or ocean circulation.
18
The Washington Times
JUL 8 1990
STEPHEN CHAPMAN
y now, all Americans of sound
B
mind and pure heart must
be overcome with shame at
their government's policy
Firm footing on
on the greenhouse effect, which is
alleged to be turning the planet into
a sauna with no off switch. Instead
of joining with all the other indus-
global warming?
trial democracies in pledging to do
thrillingly noble deeds, the Bush ad-
ministration has stuck to its party-
need canoes to get to work.
pooping insistence on counting costs
Other experts note that a warm-
and nailing down facts.
ing trend, if it happens, will have
This is highly unsatisfying to Eu-
some benefits, such as boosting har-
ropean heads of government, par-
vests, lengthening growing seasons
ticularly West Germany's Helmut
and reducing January gas bills in
Kohl, whose citizens are a pushover
Chicago. It may also help head off a
for every environmentalist fashion.
new ice age, a catastrophe that the
It's also infuriating to American en-
green lobby was confidently pre-
tually have to cough up about 3 per-
vironmental groups, who this week
dicting just a few years ago. Global
cent of its gross national product
were accusing President Bush of
warming, if it happens, will create
annually, the equivalent of about
nothing more serious than "killing
some problems but not the apoca-
$160 billion a year in today's dollars.
our world."
lyptic threat to human survival that
That would make the savings and
Don't send a wreath just yet. The
is often advertised.
loan bailout look like a blue light spe-
Bush administration may have a
Europeans, who have historically
cial. The other Western industrial
hard case to sell politically, but it
been more allergic to free markets
nations would have to spend only
clearly has the best of the scientific
than Americans, have been forced to
about half as much as we would,
and economic arguments. European
retreat from socialism in its various
which may explain why they're
governments are more willing to
forms. Luckily for them - and the
about twice as enthusiastic. But of
vow a crusade against global warm-
American left - the greenhouse
course what their leaders demand
ing partly because they know it will
threat arrived just in time to give
won't require any real sacrifices for
cost them less than it will cost us.
unreconstructed statists a new ex-
about 20 years. By that time, Mr.
The global warming alarmists,
cuse for meddling in the lives of or-
Kohl and his colleagues will be com-
like most alarmists, behave as if all
dinary people. They aren't going to
fortably retired from politics.
the important questions were al-
President Bush has taken the rea-
ready settled. In fact, we don't know
let a few facts get in their way.
sonable position that he won't com-
whether carbon dioxide emissions
It probably hasn't escaped the no-
mit the U.S. government to a vast and
will raise the atmospheric tempera-
tice of Helmut Kohl and Francois
expensive intrusion into the nation's
ture. If so, we don't know by how
Mitterrand that the heaviest burden
economy and its citizens' personal
much. And, if it does so by a substan-
of limiting greenhouse emissions
lives without more convincing proof
tial amount, we don't know how dam-
will not fall on Germany and France.
of the need. That's only common
aging the results will be.
Carbon dioxide is produced mainly
sense, a commodity that these days
If carbon dioxide emissions
by burning fossil fuels, which the
is scarcer than the spotted owl.
cause warming, we should already
United States uses in far greater
be sweating. But over the past cen-
quantities than the Europeans.
Stephen Chapman is a nationally
One reason for the difference is
syndicated columnist.
tury, scientists have found, tempera-
tures have risen only by a tiny
nuclear power. France gets 29 per-
amount, or possibly not at all - de-
cent of its energy from nuclear
spite a sharp increase in the level of
plants. West Germany and the Euro-
carbon dioxide and other green-
pean Community as a whole get 12
house gases in the atmosphere.
percent. The United States gets 6
Even many scientists who believe
percent. So Americans will have to
the mercury will climb sooner or
spend a lot more money to cut green-
later think it won't go nearly as high
house pollutants than Europeans.
as environmentalists claim. Those
How much? A study by Alan
scary predictions of huge increases
Manne of Stanford and Richard Ri-
in ocean levels have already been
chels of the Electric Power Re-
scaled back, making it unlikely that
search Institute estimates if the
New Yorkers and Houstonians will
United States wants to cut total emis-
sions 20 percent by 2020, it will even-
10
CONTINUED
The New York Times
JUL 8 1990
throughs in battery technology that
Eagle-Picher Industries, an au-
could affect the car's range and af-
tomotive supplier and battery manu-
Electrosource has developed a pro-
fordability.
facturer based in Cincinnati, has
cess to make battery grids without
Other auto makers, including the
broken ground on a plant in Joplin,
melting the materials. The process
Ford Motor Company, the Chrysler
Mo., to produce 500 battery packs a
begins with a cylindrical billet of
Corporation and Fiat, and some inde-
year that use a nickel-iron combina-
lead, which is heated and then
pendent companies are experiment-
tion to store electricity. A coalition of
squeezed like toothpaste into a spe-
ing with modifications on their exist-
California utilities and pollution-con-
cial mold, where it surrounds some
ing models so that they could run on
trol authorities is financing the
other material, like copper wire or
battery power. Ford has developed a
plant's construction with a $5 million
fiberglass yarn. Under pressure, the
version of its Aerostar mini-van that
grant. Initially, the batteries will be
lead is squeezed out concentrically
runs on electric power in a pilot
used to power modified Chrysler
attached to the core material, which
project sponsored by the Department
mini-vans operated as service vehi-
adds strength.
of Energy.
cles by Southern California Edison.
Electrosource executives say the
Three Promising Types
Engineers at Eagle-Picher say
batteries made by this process, along
A battery is simply a device that
they have developed a venting sys-
with some new packaging techniques,
can store an electrical charge and
tem that prevents a dangerous
last significantly longer than conven-
furnish a current on demand. The
buildup of the hydrogen given off by
tional lead-acid batteries and are
nickel-iron batteries.
most promising battery types, ac-
more easily mass-produced.
cording to the Energy Department
But G.M. is betting on an improved
Johnson Controls Inc., a leading
rely on combinations of chemicals
lead-acid battery, hoping it will be
car-battery maker based in Milwau-
like lead and sulfuric acid, nickel and
available in a few years to power
kee, is pursuing refinements to lead-
iron, and sodium and sulfur.
early versions of the Impact.
acid technology, which company offi-
Engineers are already familiar
Electrosource Inc., a small, pub-
cials regard as the most viable power
with the quirks and capacities of the
licly held technology company in Aus-
source for electric vehicles in the
tin, Tex., has received encourage-
near term.
first two kinds to store and discharge
energy. The lead-acid combination is
ment from General Motors but no
the same type that starts engines in
financial support to pursue a manu-
A Radically Different Design
autos; while nickel-iron batteries pro-
facturing technique it says prolongs
Sodium-sulfur batteries also rely
vided electricity for railroad cars
the life of lead-acid batteries and
on a chemical reaction to store and
early in the century. Sodium-sulfur
greatly reduces the cost.
discharge energy, but their design
batteries, while they were developed
When a battery is charged, the elec-
differs radically from that of conven-
20 years ago in a Ford laboratory,
trical current is separated into posi-
tional batteries. The battery pack is a
have yet to find a routine use.
tively charged ions and negatively
sealed steel box with two terminals,
Each type has drawbacks as a
charged electrons, which attach to
packed with some 3,000 cells similar
power source for electric vehicles.
Conventional lead-acid batteries are
the surface of metal or alloy grids
in size and shape to flashlight bat-
resembling waffles. The surfaces of
teries. Each cell contains a core of
heavy and quickly lose their capacity
the grids are porous, like tiny sponges
liquid sodium surrounded by a
to store energy under the stress of
that store and discharge energy.
ceramic sleeve. Liquid sulfur sur-
regular, deep discharging and re-
Batteries can store more energy
rounds the ceramic, and the whole
charging. Sodium-sulfur combina-
per pound by increasing the porosity,
cell is encased in a steel cylinder.
tions produce much more energy for
and therefore surface area, of the
The main advantage of sodium-sul-
their weight, but go dead if the bat-
grids. But grids that have more pores
fur batteries is the large amount of
tery temperature is not 280 to 325 de-
are less durable.
power they can store for their weight
grees centigrade.
Chloride Silent Power Ltd., a British
Nickel-iron batteries are durable
but cost four to five times as much
company that has received Energy
per'unit of output to produce than con-
A market for
Department money to develop sodi-
um-sulfur batteries, says its batteries
ventional lead-acid batteries, accord-
provide twice the range of lead-acid
ing to Energy Department officials.
electric cars is
units, at about 60 percent of the
Nickel-iron batteries also give off hy-
weight.
drogen, which some engineers regard
as hazardous for vehicles parked in
emerging in the
Chloride has supplied a handful of
garages where a spark might cause
sodium-sulfur batteries to Ford and
an explosion.
Los Angeles area.
some smaller electric vehicle devel-
In addition, the compounds used in
opers in the United States.
some battery combinations make
mass production tricky and raise con-
cerns about recycling the used bat-
The search for grids strong enough
tery materials. For instance, the han-
yet sufficiently porous to store the
large amounts of power required to
dling and disposal of sodium can be a
run an electric vehicle has led to new
problem.
manufacturing techniques.
Many proponents of electric vehi-
The grid for a conventional lead-
cles agree that recently proposed
acid battery is made by melting lead
laws requiring manufacturers to sell
with various additives and then pour-
a certain number of cars, along with
ing the mixture into a die or mold. But
the offer of incentives like tax credits
the life of the battery grid can be re-
to buyers, may be necessary to jump-
duced by uneven distribution of the
start the market.
alloys, and careful attention to the
Nevertheless, a relatively small but
cooling and drying of the grid is nec-
important market for electric vehi-
essary to avoid further weakening.
cles is already emerging in the Los
Angeles basin, where pollution-con-
trol authorities are moving to restrict
the sale of gasoline-powered vehicles.
9
The Oregonian
JUL 12 1990
Scientists probe link
The microclimate of the plots was
measured before and after logging,
before and after the first burn, each
year of crop production, before and
with global warming
after the second burn, each year of
pasture use, then after abandon-
ment.
Kauffman found that after
By SHERRI J. WILLARD
How much and what kinds of
deforestation there is a dramatic
of The Oregonian staff
nutrients are lost from the soil as a
change in microclimate, resulting in
CI
result of fire and burning?
a drop in relative humidity from
T
he beleaguered Amazon rain
Where do those nutrients go?
nearly 100 percent to 60 percent and
forests face another growing
To understand the conditions
a 19-degree increase in temperature.
threat as a result of human
necessary for a forest fire to happen,
"With all of the logs and what not
encroachment: wildfires.
Kauffman is measuring rainfall,
remaining on the sites you have a
An area nearly the size of Oregon
temperature and humidity - the
very, very fuel-rich, hotter, drier,
is cut and burned in the Brazilian
microclimate - in both tropical wet
windier environment to where now
Amazon each year, and that is
forests and tropical dry forests.
fires are very likely and can occur
increasing the likelihood of wild-
Tropical dry forests differ from
after two or three days, and that's
fires, according to fire ecologist J.
tropical wet forests principally in
what sets the whole scenario for the
Boone Kauffman.
the amount of rainfall per year, the
big fire events," Kauffman said.
"One of the most problematic re-
height of the tree canopy and the
Last fall, Kauffman and Sanford
gions in the world with respect to
length of the dry season. Wet forests
traveled to Cerrado, a tropical dry
fires is Brazil," Kauffman said,
receive about 12 feet of rain per year,
forest in the northeastern state of
"with deforestation and fire being
while the dry forests receive only 3
Pernambuco.
significant contributors to global
feet.
Kauffman described the area as
warming."
the "least understood and most dis-
In 1986, Kauffman began his work
Deforestation has primarily been
in an intact, undisturbed tropical
turbed and perturbed by human
a result of slash-and-burn agricul-
rain forest near the small village of
activities that's occurring right now
ture and conversion to cattle pas-
in Latin America."
San Carlos de Rio Negro in southern
tures. The Brazilian Satellite Insti-
Venezuela. Here Uhl and Kauffman
In Cerrado, Kauffman estimated
tute estimates that 8 percent of the
wanted to determine whether fire
the input of gases into the atmos-
Amazon has been deforested. Esti-
can occur in an undisturbed wet
phere by measuring nutrient loss
mates have been as high as 12 per-
tropical rain forest.
from this tropical dry forest due to
cent.
fire. The smoke - containing green-
Kauffman, an assistant professor
Through measuring the microcli-
house gases such as carbon dioxide,
in Oregon State University's Depart-
mate, and the moisture content and
carbon monoxide, nitrous oxides
ment of Rangeland Resources, has
chemical composition of the forest
and methane - contributes to the
been studying the detrimental
floor, they found that a wildfire is
threat of global warming. It also con-
effects of fire and deforestation in
almost impossible in a tropical wet
tains sulfur dioxides, which contrib-
Amazon rain forests since 1986.
forest.
ute to acid rain.
Much of Kauffman's research is
In 1987, Kauffman went to the
"With the exception of fossil-fuel
in conjunction with Christopher
Brazilian state of Para in the north-
combustion, these are probably the
Uhl, an ecologist at Pennsylvania
eastern Amazon Basin. Para is char-
most significant sources of human-
State University, and Robert L. San-
acterized by extremely high rates of
caused greenhouse gas input into
ford of the Natural Resource Ecolo-
deforestation because of cattle-pas-
the atmosphere," he said.
gy Laboratory at Colorado State Uni-
ture conversion, logging, mineral
Kauffman found that a lot of his
versity.
extraction and slash-and-burn agri-
work "is certainly indicating that
Their research seeks to answer
culture.
the problem may be worse than pre-
such questions as:
With the cooperation of local Bra-
viously thought - that there are
What is the effect of deforesta-
zilian ranchers and farmers, Kauff-
more greenhouse gas inputs coming
tion on the probability of fires occur-
man and his colleagues studied the
from the rain forest than previously
ring?
microclimate of plots used by farm-
thought."
What happens to natural plant
ers and ranchers.
In addition to deforestation's con-
species when a fire occurs? Which
Typically in Amazonia, plots are
tribution to the greenhouse effect, it
plants can tolerate fire?
logged and burned, then crops are
has resulted in unprecedented rates
What gases are released into
of species extinction. Kauffman and
planted for a couple of years. When
the atmosphere as a result of fires
the land is no longer useful for
his colleagues have found that as
and burning?
crops, it is burned again and con-
many as 40 percent to 50 percent of
verted to pasture for raising cattle.
the tree species can be lost in a sin-
After three or four years, the plot is
abandoned. Owing to soil erosion
and nutrient loss, the plots can no
longer support crops or grass.
CONTINUED
82
LAS VEGAS REVIEW JOURNAL
JUL 12 1990
Federal energy use examined
Associated Press
ernment operations subcommittee.
WASHINGTON - The federal
Energy conservation has taken
government lags far behind private
on greater urgency in recent years
industry in energy conservation
as environmentalists have argued
and spends too little money to
that the nation must dramatically
make buildings energy efficient,
reduce its consumption to deal
witnesses told a congressional pan-
with such concerns as global warm-
el on Wednesday.
ing.
The witnesses and several con-
According to Energy Depart-
gressmen on two House Energy
ment estimates, the federal govern-
and Natural Resources subcommit-
ment spent $3.5 billion last year to
tees expressed doubt that federal
heat, light and cool more than
agencies will be able to reduce en-
500,000 buildings, while spending
ergy use by 10 percent by 1995 as
only $44.5 million to make build-
required by law.
ings use energy more efficiently.
"Without a greater push from
The government's energy use per
the top this goal will prove elu-
square foot of building space has
sive," said Rep. Mike Synar, D-
increased by 1.1 percent since
Okla., chairman of the panel's gov-
1985.
81
U.S. Department of Justice
Land and Natural Resources Division
Office of the Assistant Attorney General
Washington, D.C. 20530
December 18, 1989
MEMORANDUM
TO:
C. Boyden Gray
Counsel to the President
FROM:
Richard B. Stewart DS
Assistant Attorney General
SUBJECT: Next Steps on International Approaches to Global
Climate Change
As undertaken at this morning's meeting in your office,
this memorandum outlines the steps that should be taken to
develop further the proposed United States approach for
international agreements dealing with global climate change.
This list of steps represents the items considered significant by
the representatives of EPA, Justice, State and your office in
attendance this morning.
1. Clearance for new U.S. submissions to the RSWG.
Clearance must be obtained in the next two weeks for the
materials to be submitted to the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change ("IPCC") Response Strategies Working Group
("RSWG") for inclusion in the RSWG papers by the January 1,
1990 deadline. The proposed materials for submission to the
RSWG -- a set of "Comments" on the RSWG "Legal Measures"
paper, and a "Concept Paper" discussing the U.S. proposal --
were attached to the memorandum sent to you yesterday.
2. DPC review. The Domestic Policy Council's Working Group
on Global Change, chaired by Dr. Bromley, should take up
these matters at its next meeting. If it were held next
week, it could be the vehicle for the clearance described in
paragraph 1.
3. Pamphlet on comprehensive approach and trading. A
pamphlet should be developed, for dissemination in mid-
January to RSWG participants, explaining our position on the
2
benefits of the "comprehensive" and "international trading"
approaches to international agreements on greenhouse gases,
their sources and sinks, and the drawbacks of other
approaches, such as pollutant-by-pollutant and command-and-
control methods. The pamphlet should draw on U.S. and
international experience with each regulatory method.
4. Response to UNEP initiative on draft convention. This
week Dr. Tolba, on behalf of UNEP in Nairobi, requested that
all nations suggest language, by January 15, 1990, for a
draft framework convention on global climate change. This
request appears to compete with the normal IPCC procedures,
and to accelerate the schedule for drafting such language.
In addition, there may be growing pressure to address this
question in the United Nations General Assembly instead of
in the IPCC forum. The U.S. should develop a strategy for
dealing with this pressure, including consideration of how
far to insist on the IPCC's jurisdiction over these matters,
and whether to present our substantive proposals to the U.N.
if it takes up these matters.
5. Additional needed background work.
Relevant federal agencies should work on the following
matters relevant to our proposed approach:
(a) Economic impacts. Assessments should be developed
of the economic impacts, on the U.S. and other
principal negotiating nations or blocs, of several
scenarios for international agreement, including
different timetables, baselines, and variances for
developing nations within our "comprehensive" approach.
(b) Global Warming Potential Index. A "global warming
potential index" should be developed to relate the
contribution of each greenhouse gas to total global
warming.
(c) List of greenhouse causal factors. The list of
greenhouse gases, their sources and sinks, should be
developed for inclusion in a "comprehensive" approach
to international agreement on climate change.
(d) Monitoring and implementation assurances. Analysis
and recommendations should be developed regarding
mechanisms for monitoring and implementation assurance
provisions in international agreements on climate
change. This work should survey and analyze mechanisms
used in past international agreements, and recommend
the most appropriate mechanisms for both a
"comprehensive" approach and an "international trading"
approach.
3
6. Spring 1990 science/economics conference. Work should
commence to develop the materials, key speakers, and
exhibits that could be assembled at the President's spring
science/economics conference on the global environment, in
order to educate those attending as to the benefits of our
comprehensive and international trading approaches, the
drawbacks of traditional command and control regulatory
mechanisms, and U.S. and international experience with each
system.
U.S. Department of Justice
Land and Natural Resources Division
Office of the Assistant Attorney General
Washington, D.C. 20530
December 18, 1989
MEMORANDUM
TO:
Hon. D. Allan Bromley
Assistant to the President
for Science and Technology
Chairman, Domestic Policy Council Working Group
on Global Change
Members of the Domestic Policy Council
Working Group on Global Change
FROM:
Richard B. Stewart IS
Assistant Attorney General
SUBJECT: International Approaches to Global Climate Change
In an effort to develop a new approach to possible
international agreement on global climate change, representatives
of the Environmental Protection Agency, the State Department, and
the Justice Department have met with each other and with the
Counsel to the President. This memorandum transmits to you the
materials produced by those meetings, and identifies certain
issues to which the DPC Working Group may need to give special
attention.
Timetable
In the first week of February 1990, the United States
will host a meeting of the Response Strategies Working Group
("RSWG") of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
("IPCC"), followed by a plenary meeting of the IPCC. At its
February meeting, the RSWG will consider additional submissions
to its October, 1989 Report. Such submissions must be made by a
deadline of January 1, 1990.
2
Follow-up actions in the coming months include further
deliberation by the RSWG and the full IPCC over the spring and
summer, the President's spring conference on the science and
economics aspects of global environmental change, the IPCC
conference in the autumn, possible related activities by the
United Nations Environment Programme ("UNEP"), and the
international conference on a "framework convention" on climate
change to be hosted in Washington, D.C. in the fall of 1990.
These meetings and others are listed in the last attachment to
the memorandum dated December 14, 1989, described below.
Materials Attached
Attached please find the following materials:
- Memorandum from Richard B. Stewart to C. Boyden Gray,
dated December 14, 1989, describing and analyzing the
proposed new approaches for international agreement.
(Tab 1)
Related to this memorandum are the following attachments:
- Comments to be proposed for inclusion in the RSWG
Report. The deadline for adding such comments is
January 1, 1990.
(Tab 2)
- "Concept Paper" briefly summarizing the proposed
approaches for international agreement, to be submitted
for inclusion in the RSWG Report, also by January 1,
1990.
(Tab 3)
- List of significant meetings and conferences in the
coming months.
(Tab 4)
- Memorandum from Richard B. Stewart to C. Boyden Gray,
dated December 18, 1989, outlining the next steps that
should be taken to develop the proposed approaches.
(Tab 5)
Issues for DPC Working Group Consideration
We respectfully suggest that the DPC Working Group on
Global Change consider the proposed approaches contained in the
above documents, and the discussion of the strategic questions,
advantages and drawbacks related to our approaches contained in
those documents. It should be noted that the impacts on the
3
United States of international adoption of the proposed
approaches have not yet been analyzed in detail, and no
quantitative predictions of such effects are yet available. Our
recommendations are therefore tempered by the need for further
research.
In particular, we recommend special attention to the
following concerns:
1. Should the United States favor the traditional approach
to environmental regulation when addressing potential global
climate change, involving a framework convention followed by
successive protocols each directing nations to limit their
emissions of a separate specific pollutant? That approach
has been employed, with some variations, by the Vienna
Convention and the Montreal Protocol on Substances Depleting
the Ozone Layer, and was proposed by other nations for
dealing with global climate change at the Noordwijk
Ministerial Conference on Atmospheric Pollution and Climate
Change.
or should the United States actively promote a
"comprehensive" approach to collective treatment of all
greenhouse gases, their sources and sinks, in which each
nation must meet a national performance-based target, but is
left to choose its mix of domestic policies to meet that
target? This approach is described in the attached
materials, and it is the one we recommend.
2. Assuming the United States Government adopts the
approach we recommend, should the proposed approach outlined
be presented to the RSWG and/or the IPCC as the official
United States position, or should it be put forward more
tentatively, as an issue for consideration by the RSWG
and/or the IPCC?
3. Should the "international trading" approach, as
described in the above materials, be proposed as an integral
part of the United States submission, firmly linked to the
"comprehensive" approach, or should it be treated as an
important and useful idea which may nevertheless be deferred
for further consideration? This question is discussed more
fully in the memorandum dated December 14, 1989, listed
above, particularly at pp. 3-4.
AMERICAN
ASSOCIATION FOR THE
ADVANCEMENT OF
SCIENCE
SCIENCE
24 NOVEMBER 1989
$3.50
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PAGES 973-1088
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Activity in the other direction includes
visits to the Soviet Union, under the same
program, by a half-dozen American sociolo-
Global Warming:
gy lecturers. Among them are Neil Smelser
of the University of California at Berkeley
Blaming the Sun
and Kohn of Johns Hopkins, who will be
going to Moscow in December. Soviet uni-
versities are also soliciting American Ful-
bright lecturers.
A report that essentially wishes away greenhouse warming is said
Kohn adds that Cornell University has
to be having a major influence on White House policy
made a unique arrangement with Igor Kon,
the Soviet Union's leading expert on U.S.
sociology, who will have a 2-week-per-year
A SLIM, UNREFEREED REPORT that many
the report as a political document. Nearly 6
visiting professorship. Kon, says Kohn, has
scientists have dismissed as biased and mis-
months after its release, he is still arguing
managed to keep abreast of the field while
leading is said to be at least partly behind the
about the report's scientific basis with Nier-
working at an institute in Leningrad-main-
White House's recent temporizing on cli-
enberg, via letters.
ly by obtaining review copies of American
mate change.
"Noisy junk science," says Jerry Mahlman,
books. He cleverly managed to convey the
And that is causing consternation among
director of the National Oceanic and Atmo-
meat of the scholarship by beginning and
climatologists and other greenhouse experts,
spheric Administration's Geophysical Fluid
ending his reviews with "Marxist diatribes,"
who are dismayed that this 35-page docu-
Dynamics Laboratory, where one of the
says Kohn. So knowledgeable is the Soviet
ment by the George C. Marshall Institute, a
major greenhouse models was developed.
sociologist that when he came to the ASA
Washington, D.C., think tank-rather than
A number of other respected climate re-
convention in August 1988, he was able to
one of the massive, carefully researched and
searchers have suggested that the National
identify the main accomplishments of every
reviewed expert reports of the past several
Academy of Sciences review the study. The
author to whom he was introduced.
years-seems to be holding sway in the
Academy is likely to weigh into the ruckus
Kohn has also been involved in initiating
upper echelons of the Administration.
in some way-a couple of committees are
a series of joint conferences, which have
The report, "Scientific Perspectives on the
looking at the report-though it will stop
been in the planning stage since before
Greenhouse Problem," is by three promi-
short of giving the document a formal re-
Gorbachev took over. IREX and the ASA
nent scientists-William
view.
are supplying funds to support five U.S.-
A. Nierenberg, director
At the Environmental
Soviet conferences that are being held alter-
emeritus of Scripps Insti-
Protection Agency, Alan
nately in the United States and the Soviet
tution of Oceanography;
Hecht, deputy assistant
Union. The first, in 1987, was a conference
Robert Jastrow, founder
administrator in the office
on sociology and the psychology of work,
and former director of the
of international activities,
held in Vilnius. This December there will be
Goddard Institute for
says he has "real problems"
a conference in Moscow on public opinion
Space Studies; and Freder-
with the study and recently
research.
ick Seitz, president emeri-
passed a critique of it onto
All this cross-fertilization-indeed, the
tus of Rockefeller Univer-
EPA administrator Wil-
blossoming Soviet interest in sociology gen-
sity and past president of
liam K. Reilly. As part of
erally-is regarded as good news both for
the National Academy of
this informal review,
the discipline and for U.S. Sovietologists in
Sciences. The trio's other
Hecht asked Schneider for
particular. Shelley notes that "academic po-
major foray into public
Scripps
his comments on the re-
sitions for sociologists trained in Soviet
policy was a vigorous de-
port; Schneider's less-
studies have gone unfilled in recent years"
fense of the Strategic De-
High-level proponent. Wil-
than-flattering letter is
and expects that to change.
fense Initiative a few years
liam Nierenberg, one of the authors,
now circulating in the sci-
Further, William V. D'Antonio, head of
ago.
briefed White House officials.
entific community and on
the ASA, says he hopes eventually to see
Summing up the abun-
Capitol Hill, where Sena-
U.S. students doing graduate work in the
dant uncertainties that surround greenhouse
tor Albert Gore (D-TN), for one, is con-
Soviet Union.
models and predictions, the authors say it is
cerned.
For its part, the ASA is looking toward
too soon to take any actions to reduce
The report does have its scientific sup-
bringing over another crop of Soviet stu-
greenhouse gases. And by their reckoning,
porters, including meteorologists like Je-
dents next year, this time including political
there is little need to. They argue that there
rome Namias of Scripps, and Richard Lind-
scientists and economists, with the coopera-
is no evidence that the modest temperature
zen and Reginald Newell of Massachusetts
tion of the American Political Science Asso-
rise of 0.5°C that has occurred this century is
Institute of Technology-distinguished sci-
ciation and the American Economics Associ-
correlated with emissions of greenhouse
entists whose major work is largely outside
ation. "Soviets are acknowledging that
gases, and they predict that decreased solar
the greenhouse field. On 23 September,
American sociology is where it's at," says
activity in the next century will lead to a
Lindzen and Namias wrote to President
D'Antonio. Shelley agrees. She reports that
cooling trend likely to offset any greenhouse
Bush extolling the merits of the Marshall
the United States-where sociology is a
warming. All of this is couched in ample
report and citing its conclusion that "current
heavily quantitative field-was chosen as the
caveats, but the underlying message is that
forecasts of global warming for the 21st
destination for the 17 students because
the entire problem has been overblown.
century are so inaccurate and fraught with
"French sociology is seen as too qualitative
Several scientists are up in arms. Steve
uncertainty as to be useless to policy-mak-
and German sociology too philosophical."
Schneider of the National Center for Atmo-
ers."
CONSTANCE HOLDEN
spheric Research, for one, has denounced
The message apparently has gotten
992
SCIENCE, VOL. 246
through, if not to Bush then to his
experts Jastrow consulted in writing
chief of staff John Sununu, who, it is
the report. "Bob Jastrow would call
widely believed, is quite taken with
me at work and at home on Saturday
the report. Says Schneider: "Sununu
and Sunday. I would say 'No, no,
is holding the report up like a cross
you can't make that prediction.' I was
to a vampire, fending off greenhouse
shocked when I saw what came out."
warming."
Jastrow says the emphasis his col-
Just what impact the report has
leagues are putting on the solar vari-
had on Administration policy is diffi-
ability discussion is a "distorted"
cult to pin down, and Sununu's office
reading of the report, maintaining,
is mum on the subject. But it has
along with Nierenberg, that the solar
been widely reported that Sununu
Jay Dickman
variation hypothesis is just a minor
tried to block EPA head Reilly from
part of their argument.
attending an international meeting
"Then why did they put it in?"
on climate change at The Hague in
Leading opponent. A critique of the report by climatologist
snaps a senior Academy official.
early November. At that meeting, the
Stephen Schneider has been widely circulated.
Their bottom line, Jastrow insists,
United States refused to commit it-
is simply that no scientific conclusion
self to cutting emissions of carbon dioxide.
stead, they look for natural causes to explain
can be drawn about the future greenhouse
Nierenberg, for his part, has been work-
the rise and find that solar variation mirrors
warming, "and we have time to find out."
ing hard to get the message into the White
it rather well. The authors' underlying as-
They assert that with $100 million for su-
House. He personally briefed senior Admin-
sumption is that if they can break the con-
percomputers, answers to these questions
istration staff, including representatives
nection between that 0.5°C rise and accu-
from the White House Office of Cabinet
will be forthcoming in 3 to 5 years, so why
mulating greenhouse gases, then all bets for
not wait before taking precipitous policy
Affairs, the White House Office of Policy
future warming are off.
action?
Development, the Council of Economic Ad-
No such luck, says Schneider, who thinks
"No one in his right mind would say
visers, and the Office of Management and
they are setting up a straw man. "Could the
that," counters Hecht at EPA, who, along
Budget.
sun have done it? Sure," he says, adding that
with everyone else Science spoke with, says it
"I was impressed with the report," says
a variety of natural phenomena could ex-
will take a decade or more to address these
Juanita Duggan, special assistant to the
plain the temperature rise of the last century.
questions.
President in the cabinet affairs office. "Ev-
But that, he adds, says nothing about the
In 25 years, Mahlman adds, "Congress
eryone has read it. Everyone takes it serious-
future greenhouse warming.
will still be asking us questions we can't
ly. We have a coherent policy in the federal
"There are uncertainties, but I can't think
answer. I don't care if you pour $100 billion
government that is not inconsistent with the
of any combination of them that could
at the problem."
Marshall Institute report."
conspire to make the problem go away,"
The biggest gripe people have with the
"It is well worth listening to," adds Paul
says NOAA's Mahlman. Hypotheses are
Roelling, a senior analyst in the White
report is that the authors, in summoning
fine, he adds, "but to advise the White
uncertainty to their cause, fail to acknowl-
House Office of Policy Development. "They
House on the basis of this type of argument?
edge that it cuts both ways. Explains
are eminent scientists. I was impressed."
Give me a break. That is not responsible."
Schneider: "What we don't know is just as
But White House Science Adviser D.
The reason people are worried about
likely to make it worse as better."
Allan Bromley, who was not yet in place
greenhouse warming, Schneider, Mahlman,
Solar variability is a case in point.
when the report was released, seems to be
and others say, is not because of the 0.5°C
Schneider offers a counter scenario to that in
distancing himself from it. "It has a distin-
temperature rise during the past century but
guished group of authors, but there is no
the Marshall Institute report: That during
because emissions of carbon dioxide, chloro-
the past 100 years, solar energy output was
general consensus on the details and it has
fluorocarbons, and methane are clearly in-
decreasing rather that increasing. And with-
not been peer-reviewed," he said in a state-
creasing. And it is dead certain that if
out that natural cooling, which masked the
ment to Science.
enough of these greenhouse gases are re-
greenhouse signal, the earth's temperature
All the critics concede that the first part of
leased into the atmosphere, where they trap
would have warmed up twice as much. "It's
the report is a good description of the
heat, global temperatures will rise. The only
pure speculation," he adds, but since no one
scientific uncertainties surrounding predic-
question is how much, and by when.
tions of greenhouse warming. And every-
really knows what the sun was doing 100
Then the Marshall Institute pulls out an-
years back, "it is just as likely as theirs."
one, not surprisingly, agrees with the re-
other card. After analyzing the historical
Moreover, says Schneider, if the earth
port's plea for $100 million for more re-
record of solar activity, which can be in-
search.
warms up 2° to 4°C, as models usually
ferred from carbon-14 in tree rings, the
predict, "it will swamp anything the sun has
Where the report veers from the main-
authors predict that solar activity will de-
done in the past 100 years."
stream is with the assertion that the warm-
crease in the next century, leading to a mini
John Perry, a meteorologist and staff di-
ing trend of the past century was probably
Ice Age that will offset any greenhouse
rector of the Board of Atmospheric Sciences
caused by increased solar activity and not by
warming.
and Climate at the National Research Coun-
an accumulation of greenhouse gases-and
Preposterous, say solar physicists like
cil, agrees. "If the report had just said, in an
that, ipso facto, the greenhouse warming
John Eddy of the University Corporation
evenhanded way, 'don't rely on the models
next century will be small, perhaps 1°C.
for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, who
because there are hellacious uncertainties,'
The basis of the report is an analysis of
calls their extrapolation "very shaky" at best.
this 0.5°C warming trend, which, the au-
we all would have applauded. But the way it
We simply don't have the ability to predict
comes across is that all the uncertainties are
thors point out, does not follow the curve of
future solar activity, he says.
on the downside. I don't think that is very
rising emissions of greenhouse gases. In-
Curiously, Eddy was one of the sunspot
democratic."
LESLIE ROBERTS
24 NOVEMBER 1989
NEWS & COMMENT 993
U.S. Department of Justice
Environment and Natural Resources Division
Office of the Assistant Attorney General
Washington, D.C. 20530
September 12, 1990
MEMORANDUM
TO:
Members of the Task Force on Climate Approaches
FROM:
Dick Stewart DS
Assistant Attorney General
SUBJECT: Draft Task Force Interim Report on Research and
Analysis to Support the Comprehensive and Incentives
Approaches
As promised, attached is a draft of the interim report
the Task Force will present to the DPC subgroup on global change.
Please review it at your earliest convenience. We appreciate the
comments you have made on the outline distributed August 24, and
we have made every effort to incorporate them here. We would
especially appreciate your thoughts on whether any relevant items
or information have been omitted, and on suggested relative
priorities for the tasks identified.
We will review this draft report at the meeting of the
Task Force at 10:00 a.m. tomorrow, Thursday, September 13, at the
Department of Justice, Room 2603.
A brief proposed agenda for the meeting is also
attached. We look forward to seeing you tomorrow morning.
9/12/90
Comprehensive/Incentives Approach Task Force
September 13, 1990, 10:00 a.m.
Dept. of Justice, Room 2603
Proposed Agenda
1. Consideration of draft Task Force report
A. Directions and content, including "policy context"
B. Priorities and timing of tasks, in light of importance
of each task and in light of upcoming conferences,
workshops, and international meetings
C. Agency activities to undertake tasks
2. CEES GC-MARS Research: draft report from GC working group
3. OECD activities
4. Other matters
9/12/90
DRAFT -- Do not
quote, cite or
distribute
Interagency Task Force on Climate Approaches
Interim Report:
Research and Analysis to Support the
Comprehensive and Economic Incentives Approaches
September 24, 1990
Introduction
Since November 1989 the Administration has developed
new approaches to the design of potential climate change policy,
the "comprehensive" and "economic incentives"¹ approaches. These
approaches were initially suggested by the United States to the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) by letter in
December 1989, and were presented more fully through an "Informal
Seminar" for the IPCC Response Strategies Working Group (RSWG)
officers in February 1990, accompanied by a booklet of Discussion
Papers that have since been widely distributed. The new
approaches have been reflected in U.S. positions in the IPCC and
now in the IPCC report itself, and in several speeches, including
the President's April 18 closing remarks to the White House
Conference on Science and Economics Research relating to Global
Change, and his July 11 news conference following the Houston
Economic Summit meeting.
The discussion to date has largely been of a conceptual
nature. Work must now be done on the practical workings of these
approaches, and to the research and analysis that would be needed
to assess their utility and to support their implementation.
This Task Force was organized in May 1990 to specify, encourage,
and coordinate this work. The Task Force is an interagency
effort chaired by DOJ and involving representatives of numerous
agencies, including CEA, CEES, CEQ, DOC/NOAA, DOE, DOI, DOJ, EPA,
NASA, NSF, OPD, OSTP, State, USDA, USTR, Treasury, and WH
Counsel. This "Interim Report" is provided to identify the
¹The "economic incentives" approach was originally focused
on emissions trading, but has since been broadened to encompass
other market-based economic instruments, including emissions taxes.
* DRAFT page 2 *
research and analysis needed, the current Administration efforts
in that direction, and the further work required. Work is needed
in several scientific, economic and institutional research areas
that bear on or underlie these approaches, including efforts to
quantify sources and sinks of multiple greenhouse gases and fill
gaps in information on those sources and sinks, to quantify the
relative environmental impacts of these gases, to compare the
cost-effectiveness of these approaches and their alternatives,
and to develop institutional arrangements that could translate
these approaches from concept to practicality. In light of the
plethora of upcoming discussions, workshops, conferences,
international meetings, ministerial conferences and full
negotiations -- including the first session of negotiations on a
framework convention on climate change, to be hosted by the
United States in February 1991 -- prompt attention to these
topics is needed to prepare U.S. representatives for effective
participation and to assess choices the U.S. may need to make in
responding to others' proposals or putting forward its own.
Policy context
These approaches address the "how to" question -- how
to design any policy that might be adopted to respond to
potential climate change. Their principal aim is to improve the
cost-effectiveness of any proposed policy choice. They do not
address the larger cost-benefit question of "how much" policy
action should be taken -- what level of social investment, if
any, is warranted by risks of potential climate change. The work
of this task force does not imply that a choice has been made to
implement some policy action.
Furthermore, the utility of these approaches is not
limited to the design of emissions limitation policies. The
"comprehensive" and "economic incentives" concepts are
"approaches" or heuristics that offer insight into any discussion
of response strategies for potential climate change, whether the
strategy is pursuing scientific research, promoting new
technology, enumerating "no regrets" measures, 2 or designing
"No regrets" measures have been defined as those policies
which are justified on other (non-climate) grounds (or, more
precisely, those policies which are justified in the face of
uncertainties about predicted climate change so great that the
present expected loss due to climate change cannot confidently be
said to exceed a de minimis level), yet which also help to
address potential climate change. Examples include emissions-
limiting steps taken for non-climate reasons, such as phasing out
CFCs, afforestation, and improving energy efficiency. Other
examples could include reducing landfill emissions of NMHCs and
(continued
)
* DRAFT page 3 *
actual emissions limitations policies (whether domestic or
international). The "comprehensive" and "economic incentives"
approaches to potential climate change policy were originally
developed in response to the piecemeal (C02-focused), command-
and-control regulatory approach then dominating the discussion in
the IPCC, but the approaches apply to the full scope of policy
options.
For example, a nation following a "no regrets" strategy
could use the comprehensive approach to calculate the aggregate
impact on net greenhouse gas emissions made by its various no
regrets measures. A framework convention on climate change could
take a comprehensive approach to the cooperative scientific and
economic research to which the parties commit, as well as to any
national emissions reporting, or to credit to be given under any
future obligation for nations' current voluntary emissions-
limiting activities. An economic incentives approach could be
applied to adaptation measures desirable in long-range
investments, such as coastal construction or water use planning.
Summary of the Approaches
The two approaches are compatible, but need not be
employed together. Both approaches offer the possibility of
designing environmental policies that achieve goals at least cost
and that maximize the possibility for diverse, innovative,
flexible, and cost-effective responses.
Comprehensive approach. The "comprehensive" approach
addresses all greenhouse gases (GHGs), their sources and sinks,
collectively, in contrast to a piecemeal focus on CO2 and the
energy sector. GHGs include carbon dioxide (C02), methane (CH4),
nitrous oxide (N20), halocarbons such as chlorofluorocarbons
(CFCs) and related substances (HCFCs, HFCs), and tropospheric
ozone (03), whose precursors include oxides of nitrogen (NOX),
non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs), and carbon monoxide (CO).
Different GHGs arise from different sources and are removed from
the atmosphere by different sinks. Different GHGs have different
impacts on the environment; for example, each gas has a different
ability to block certain radiated energy ("radiative forcing").
In order to relate the comparative environmental impacts of the
various GHGs, the comprehensive approach employs a parameter or
"index" the calculates the relative contribution of increments of
each gas to global externalities such as radiative forcing. The
comprehensive approach thereby avoids ignoring important gases
(including methane, nitrous oxide, CFCs and halons, and
2 ( continued)
CH4, reducing auto emissions of CO and NOx, and improving the
drought-resistance of crops.
* DRAFT page 4 *
tropospheric ozone and its precursors) that would be omitted from
a C02-only approach, and avoids ignoring important sources and
sinks that would be omitted from an energy-only approach.
As a means of developing an agenda for science and
economics research, such as research on the likelihood or impacts
of potential climate change, the comprehensive approach suggests
the scope of the research agenda: the range of relevant inquiry,
the gases and sectors relevant as inputs to economic models of
GHG emissions, and the relative environmental externalities (both
negative and positive) related to emissions of each gas.
As an approach to technology development, the
comprehensive approach assists in identifying and comparing the
relative importance of technologies and practices affecting
potential climate outcomes.
As a means of enumerating "no regrets" measures, the
comprehensive approach provides a metric for identifying and
assessing policy actions in the climate context. It could form
the basis for calculating the aggregate impact of various no
regrets measures on a nation's net GHG emissions.
As an approach to emissions limitation rules or
obligations, the comprehensive approach provides an
environmentally coherent and least-cost design for limitations
policy. A piecemeal approach, focused on one gas (e.g. CO2) or
one sector (e.g. energy), would omit salient greenhouse gases,
sources and sinks, and would likely induce unintended shifts of
economic activities to unregulated modes that offset or even
increase emissions of GHGs. The comprehensive approach cures
these defects in a piecemeal approach. It also allows
flexibility to choose the least-cost mix of policy options
yielding the desired overall GHG limitation. And, by addressing
"net emissions," it encourages sink enhancement such as through
afforestation and safeguards against ocean pollution. The
comprehensive approach can be applied to a variety of emissions
limitation measures, 3 including emissions taxes and emissions
trading, and including both domestic and international measures.
If applied internationally, it has the additional benefit of
affording each nation the flexibility and sovereignty to decide
the mix of domestic policies regarding the array of gases,
sources and sinks that that nation determines would best
³In light of the relative weighting of the various GHGs
according to their environmental externalities and the
flexibility afforded to choose a least-cost mix of measures, it
is possible that the comprehensive approach could achieve an
aggregate net GHG emissions limit by restricting emissions of
some gases while allowing emissions of other gas (es) to rise.
* DRAFT page 5 *
accomplish policy goals in light of its unique social, economic,
cultural and institutional circumstances.
Economic incentives approach. The "economic
incentives" approach similarly applies to a variety of policy
options. In the emissions limitation area, it encompasses the
panoply of market-based economic instruments, including emissions
trading and emissions taxes, imposed to force internalization of
the external environmental costs accompanying emissions. It
includes the use of incentives to promote innovation in
technologies and practices, and addresses adaptation as well as
emissions limitation. These incentives could be applied
domestically or internationally.
As one example, application of emissions trading to
emissions limitation obligations would allow those emitting a
substance to achieve compliance with limits on such emissions by
voluntary agreements to reallocate emissions among individual
emitters so long as the aggregate output did not exceed their
overall limit. Thus, reductions would be obtained most at those
places where reductions cost least. This could be accomplished
by authorizing informal reallocations or by formally issuing
"allowances" and then authorizing a market in the allowances.
Experience with emissions trading in the U.S. indicates that it
can achieve environmental quality goals at substantially lower
cost, and therefore could be of use to nations domestically as
they implement any limits on greenhouse gases. Allowing
emissions trading among nations could similarly be advantageous
in the context of any international limits on emissions of
greenhouse gases.
Emissions taxes would in principle also produce least-
cost results. In general, while emissions trading provides more
certainty about the quantity of emissions limitation achieved,
emissions taxes provide more certainty about the cost imposed on
emitters. Imposition of international emissions taxes could
raise additional institutional, political and sovereignty
concerns that would not attend international emissions trading or
domestic taxes.
As another example, market mechanisms could be used to
encourage efficient adaptation practices. Long-range
investments, such as coastal construction or water use planning,
might, because of market failures or other institutional
failures, be undertaken without giving appropriate weight to any
climate change risks (e.g. rising sea levels or shifting
precipitation). Such failures might be addressed by
informational or incentive-based policies, such as requiring
coastal construction to purchase subsidence insurance, or
encouraging long-range water use planning to take account of
potential precipitation patterns.
* DRAFT page 6 *
Research and Analysis Underlying the Comprehensive Approach
I. Measuring and Monitoring Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas (GHG)
concentrations
Any environmental impacts resulting from GHGs would be
associated with changing actual concentrations in the atmosphere,
not emissions per se. The comprehensive approach underscores the
necessity of gathering data on atmospheric concentrations of all
relevant GHGs. Over the last decade much work along these lines
has already been undertaken or accelerated, including (i) direct
measurement through ground station, aerial, and satellite
observation of atmospheric (tropospheric and stratospheric)
concentrations of several trace gases (chiefly CO2, CH4, N20, 03,
and CFCs), and (ii) sample records of past atmospheric
compositions found in ice cores, tree rings, and other sites.
Measuring and monitoring past, current and future concentrations,
temporal and spatial (e.g. vertical) distributions, chemistry,
removal, and other dynamics of GHGs will remain an essential
function under a comprehensive approach.
-- Current Administration efforts:
- Under the U.S. Global Change Research Program,
several CEES agencies are conducting relevant research.
For example, DOE, NASA, NOAA and NSF are conducting or
will soon conduct direct measurement of atmospheric
concentrations and distributions of CO2, CH4, N20,
tropospheric 03, CFCs, CO, NOx and NMHCs. NASA, NSF
and DOI are studying sample records of CO2 and CH4 in
ice cores and tree rings. NASA and NOAA conduct direct
observations of stratospheric 03 and related
substances.
-- Future work:
- Ensure coverage of all relevant GHGs
- Ensure coverage of relevant temporal and spatial
distributions
- Advance understanding of chemical interactions among
trace gases
- Advance understanding of quantitative link between
trace gases and radiative forcing
- Ensure that research called for in any framework
convention addresses all relevant GHGs
* DRAFT page 7 *
II. Impacts of GHGs: Comparative Indices
Changing concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere are of
interest because those gases may yield environmental impacts on
societies and ecosystems. Different substances in the atmosphere
have different environmental impacts; it goes nearly without
saying that the environmental impacts of atmospheric 02, H20, and
CO2 are quite varied and are believed to be fundamental to the
present habitability of the planet. Incremental increases in
concentrations of trace gases such as GHGs will similarly have
various impacts depending on the particular gas at issue.
(A) Radiative forcing index
In the climate change context, the principal environmental
impact of GHGs under study has been radiative forcing. Radiative
forcing is not the ultimate environmental impact of actual
concern to societies and ecosystems; it rather serves as a useful
proxy or intermediate metric for assessing the impacts of
potential GHG-induced climate change, including atmospheric
temperature change, changing precipitation, changing soil
moisture, and sea level rise, which in turn could affect
biological and other systems. Molecules of different GHGs have
different radiative forcing properties, and estimates of the
relative radiative forcing of incremental amounts of GHGs can
provide a common metric (sometimes called "CO2 equivalence")
along which to compare the GHGs. A comparative parameter of
relative radiative forcing, often called a "global warming
potential" (GWP) index, has been developed by several scientists.
The GWP index incorporates such variables as the instantaneous
radiative forcing of each type of GHG molecule, its dissipation
function and hence its typical residence time in the atmosphere,
and the discount rate applied or the time horizon over which the
forcing function is integrated.
-- Current Administration efforts:
- Considerable work has been done on the relative
radiative forcing of many GHGs. Estimates of
instantaneous radiative forcing, derived from
laboratory tests of molecular properties, are well
established, as are residence times for several GHGs.
Work in this area has been done by NASA, NOAA,
NSF, EPA, and DOE, and has been reviewed and reported
by IPCC WG I.
-- Future work:
- Harmonize various approaches and extending
international understanding of indices.
- Improve accuracy of dissipation functions and hence
of estimated residence times of GHGs. Scientific
uncertainties in the current estimates remain
* DRAFT page 8 *
surrounding the residence time of CO2, due to
complications in the carbon cycle and uncertainties in
CO2 sink removal processes. Atmospheric chemical
reactions involving other gases, such as CH4 and
precursors to tropospheric 03, complicate estimates of
their residence times.
- Incorporate indirect effects attributable to various
gases' atmospheric reactions. Certain trace gases
react to form other radiatively important trace gases,
or react with substances that would otherwise affect
GHG abundances.
- Take account of "saturation" effects. Radiative
forcing by each GHG occurs within a different segment
of the electromagnetic spectrum; as that segment or
"band" becomes occluded, additional increments of the
GHG have diminishing marginal radiative forcing
impacts. Radiative forcing estimates thus depend on,
and need to be expressed in terms of, projected
concentrations of relevant GHGs.
- Take account of the implications that vertical and
other distribution of GHGs in the atmosphere may have
for calculated GWP values.
- Improve use of discount rates/time horizons. IPCC
WGI expresses GWPs in three selected time horizons;
analysis is needed of which horizon is appropriate for
policymaking. More broadly, better understanding is
needed of the scientific and economic basis for
choosing different discount rates.
- Assess implications of including other relevant
substances, such as anthropogenic aerosols, in the GWP
index.
- Develop institutional mechanisms for adopting a
consensus index and adjusting it to new research
results. Because uncertainties remain in certain
aspects of the index, index values may change as new
scientific information is discovered. If an
internationally agreed index is used as a tool for
design of national policy portfolios to limit net
index-weighted GHG emissions, changes in the index
values could mean changes in the costs to each nation
of its policy package. Mechanisms should be developed
for giving advance indication of index uncertainties
and likely changes in the index, incorporating new
scientific information, and smoothing transitions to
new index values. Such mechanisms could include
objective science panels and periodic reassessments.
(B) Full environmental impacts index
As indicated above, radiative forcing is only one of the
environmental impacts of trace gases, and is really an
* DRAFT page 9 *
intermediate proxy used as a common metric to compare diverse
GHGs. GHGs have other non-warming environmental impacts of
global and local significance, some of which may be more
important than their contributions to radiative forcing. For
example, CFCs and related substances deplete the stratospheric
ozone layer; higher CO2 concentrations increase plant
photosynthesis and increase plants' water use efficiency.
Optimal policy design would entail developing a comparative GHG
index that incorporates the full externalities imposed by
increments of each GHG. Without such a "full impacts" index, a
GWP index could provide signals or incentives that yield
desirable changes in aggregate GWP but undesirable changes in
other impacts; in other words, significant externalities will
remain uninternalized. A full impacts index would include
radiative forcing (currently measured in the GWP index) and other
salient non-warming global impacts of GHGs, such as the direct
effects of CO2 on vegetation and the ozone depletion impacts
associated with CFCs and other halocarbons. Additional impacts
that might be considered include the toxicity of CO, 03 and other
gases.
-- Current Administration efforts:
- Conceptual thinking about design of a full impacts
index. (DOJ, USDA)
- Efforts to quantify direct environmental impacts of
CO2 enrichment, chiefly its impacts on agricultural and
forestry output. (DOE, USDA, DOI, EPA, NSF)
- Efforts to quantify environmental impacts of
stratospheric ozone depletion and resultant UV-B
irradiance due to halocarbon emissions, such as impacts
on agriculture, phytoplankton, and cancers. (USDA)
-- Future work:
- Address technical and analytic issues in a full
impacts index. Whereas the common proxy or metric used
in the GWP index is radiative forcing, a full impacts
index would require a common metric among the various
warming and non-warming impacts. One candidate for
such a proxy metric is aggregate influence on global
agricultural yield. (DOJ, USDA)
- Undertake preliminary design and rough quantitative
estimate of a full impacts index, in order to assess
the difference between the relative GHG values obtained
in a full impacts index versus a GWP index.
- Improve understanding of direct environmental impacts
of CO2 enrichment, including the impact of CO2 in
concert with changes in other environmental variables
such as temperature, moisture, and other pollutants.
(DOE, USDA, DOI, EPA, NSF)
- Improve understanding of impacts of ozone depletion,
including measuring UV-B irradiance and assessing
* DRAFT page 10 *
impacts of UV-B radiation on biological systems.
(USDA)
- Consider whether to include additional impacts, such
as toxicity.
- Use the understanding of the importance of
internalizing all salient externalities to assess and
compare the environmental and socioeconomic distortions
that might be induced by employing a parameter limited
to global radiative forcing, global agricultural yield,
or other incomplete proxies.
III. Measuring and Monitoring net GHG emissions
The comprehensive approach emphasizes attention to all GHGs,
sources and sinks. Baseline data on all of these is not always
currently available. In addition, much of the data that are
available derives from estimates using data on inputs (e.g. fuel
quantities) and knowledge of or assumptions about input-output
ratios associated with technologies or practices. Better
measurement, forecasting and actual monitoring of net GHG
emissions is suggested by, and needed to support, the
comprehensive approach.
Assessment of current and future net emissions is useful in
the task of predicting the contribution of net emissions to
atmospheric concentrations and hence to potential climate change,
even if emissions limitations are never imposed. The ability to
better monitor future emissions could also be useful in verifying
the implementation of limitation actions and in assuring others'
compliance with their claims and with international obligations.
This is true of domestic limitations rules as well as
international obligations; if a domestic GHG emissions limitation
policy is to be effective and, in particular, is to employ
performance standards rather than technology-based standards, it
will require sound emissions monitoring techniques.
(A) Measuring net GHG emissions
-- Current Administration efforts:
- Numerous agencies collect and analyze data on various
gases, sources, sinks, sectors, and industries, and
thereby measure emissions from a variety of sources
(e.g. energy utilities, mobile sources, land use,
agriculture) and uptake by a variety of sinks (e.g.
oceans, forests, soils, grasses).
- Efforts are underway to assemble "inventories" of net
* DRAFT page 11 *
emissions of GHGs for many nations, 4 chiefly EPA's
analysis of CO2, CH4, CFCs, HCFCs, N20, CO, NOX, and
NMHCs for the US and other nations.
- Data are generally adequate on US and other
industrialized nations' emissions of GHGs from fossil
fuel combustion (generally measured by data on fuel
inputs and knowledge of typical combustion techniques),
and on world emissions of halocarbons (generally
measured by production, consumption and storage rates).
-- Future work:
- Ensure that measurement covers all relevant GHGs,
sources and sinks.
- Improve data on other nations. Data on developing
nations are particularly scant.
- Develop technologies for measuring net GHG emissions,
including direct observation and remote sensing.
- Develop practical proxies or surrogates, such as fuel
or fertilizer input data coupled with assumed output
rates (e.g. combustion or cultivation techniques), or
acreage or livestock data coupled with assumed output
rates, to generate emissions factors to assist in
measuring emissions. Ensure that measurement
uncertainties and assumptions, and use of
proxies/surrogates, do not distort policy responses. 5
- Improve understanding of the processes involved in
natural emissions and sink uptake, and how these
activities might be influenced by climate change.
- Ensure that data presentations are comprehensive,
e.g. avoid CO2-only or fossil fuels-only charts in
IPCC, NES, and other reports except as adjuncts to
complete GHG presentation.
- Ensure that data presentations include the scientific
uncertainties involved.
(B) Forecasting future net emissions
4 Efforts outside the government include: OECD project on
all gases, solicited from member states; WRI (in conjunction with
UNEP/UNDP) on CO2, CH4, CFCs, all nations; Harvard Kennedy School
on CO2 and CFCs, many nations.
5 For example, measurement of CH4 emissions based on a proxy
such as total acreage of rice cultivation might imply that the
only option to reduce emissions is reduced rice cultivation,
whereas changed practices or rice strains might accomplish the
same at lower socioeconomic cost. In general, the use of proxies
should not be allowed to conceal opportunities for changing the
emissions factors or other assumptions from which the proxies derive.
* DRAFT page 12 *
-- Current Administration efforts:
- Use of economic models to generate scenarios of
future emissions. EPA, DOE, and NSF are conducting
such work, using a variety of economic models. U.S.
agency work was reviewed and reported in the IPCC
WGI/WGIII emissions scenarios.
-- Future work:
- Make use of forthcoming Second Generation GHG
Emissions model (J. Edmonds developing for DOE), which
will overhaul and expand current economic models to
cover multiple GHGs, multiple sectors, and other
important improvements.
- Ensure that Edmonds model includes GHG sinks and
other aspects of the comprehensive approach.
(C) Monitoring net emissions in the future
-- Current Administration efforts:
- Efforts to improve monitoring of non-point emissions,
including CH4 emissions from rice cultivation (EPA) and
ruminant animal husbandry (EPA) ; and GHG emissions from
biomass burning (deforestation) (EPA, NASA, USDA).
- Efforts to improve monitoring of CH4 emissions from
energy systems such as natural gas transmission and
fossil fuels extraction (DOE).
-- Future work:
- Use proxies/surrogates, developed for measurement of
net emissions (section (A) above), to monitor emissions
through monitoring of inputs, technologies and
practices.
- Expand monitoring capacity and data to cover all
relevant gases, sources, and sinks: data are especially
needed on non-point sources of CH4 and N20, e.g.
agriculture, livestock; hydroxyl chemistry and
atmospheric chemical reactions yielding tropospheric
03; non-point sources and sinks of CO2, including
oceanic biota, terrestrial biota, long-term
sequestration, plant lifecycles, grasses, soils, and
trees, extent and effects of deforestation, and sink
behavior.
- Expand monitoring capacity and data to cover all
nations. Current data generally cover industrialized
nations.
- Harmonize techniques and data among nations and
analysts. For example, resolve differences among
nations monitoring deforestation (Brazil is urging that
only its satellites produce reliable estimates of
Brazilian land use).
- Develop monitoring technologies and capabilities, as
described under " (A) Measuring net GHG emissions"
* DRAFT page 13 *
(above) Identify potential international and national
methods for monitoring net GHG emissions; assess
institutional, political, social, and economic
constraints on such monitoring, and means to overcome
such constraints
- Assess options for monitoring arrangements, including
arrangements for monitoring and reporting and their
relation to sovereignty concerns, e.g. voluntary or
mandatory national reporting; "national technical
means" of observation of other nations' activities;
remote sensing; atmospheric observations; international
oversight bodies (e.g. UNEP investigators) ; permission
for on-site inspections; bilateral trade partner review
under emissions trading; incentives and institutional
designs to encourage development and application of
accurate monitoring & reporting, for example by
assuring credit for net GHG limitation actions (e.g.
"no regrets" actions) upon a showing by the emitter of
successful monitoring practices (see section VI below) ;
verification and enforcement procedures and their
rules, reporting and enforcement procedures, burdens of
proof, forum (international or bilateral, political or
scientific adjudicators, etc.).
IV. Evaluating current national policies and proposals
Whether or not international agreement is reached on
response strategies to potential climate change, nations are
already announcing their intention to restrict emissions of one
or more GHGs or to expand GHG sinks. The U.S. "no regrets"
policy has been articulated in qualitative form; at some point
the U.S. -- or others -- may choose to present quantifications of
the net GHG effects of U.S. "no regrets" measures. The
comprehensive approach provides the basis for computing the
aggregate impact of such diverse measures. In addition, it may
be valuable for the U.S. to assess the policy claims and policy
proposals being made by other nations, using the comprehensive
approach, and to examine the policy opportunities that would face
other nations under a comprehensive approach.
(A) Extent and costs of net GHG limitations achieved by
U.S. "no regrets" policy options within a comprehensive
framework.
As described in the Introduction, "no regrets" actions
are actions taken for other (non-climate) reasons but which
influence net GHG emissions. One may calculate the percent
limitations or reductions achieved by these policy actions
using the comprehensive approach, and also calculate the
marginal and total cost per policy action. This could be a
first step toward assessing the marginal and total costs of
* DRAFT page 14 *
GHG avoidance from different gas/source/sink policy options
and hence toward assessing the relative cost-effectiveness
of the comprehensive versus piecemeal approaches.
-- Current Administration efforts:
- analysis of US policies in EPA "Comprehensive Budget"
analysis (covering U.S. energy efficiency and clean
energy initiatives, CFC phaseout, afforestation,
landfill rules, and other policies)
- DOE/NES analysis of US energy policies
-- Future work:
- Improve basis for projecting emissions limitations
achieved by current policies
- Expand to cover influence of agricultural subsidies,
other relevant policy measures
(B) Analysis of net GHG limitations achieved by other
nations' policies
Analysis similar to that described for U.S. "no
regrets" measures above should be undertaken for the
policies announced and implemented by, proposed by, or
available to, foreign nations. Certain nations have
suggested unilateral limits on CO2 emissions (e.g. Sweden,
possibly Japan), others have announced willingness to enact
CO2 limits if others do too (e.g. U.K., Netherlands), and
others have endorsed the Noordwijk Declaration's suggestion
of CO2 emissions stabilization by industrialized countries
by 2000.
-- Future work:
- Using a comprehensive approach, calculate the value
of current policies in place in nations abroad, as
described above for U.S. "no regrets" actions. 6 Assess
how other nations would fare under a comprehensive
approach.
- Include consideration of foreign nations'
agricultural subsidies and other relevant policies
regarding non-point sources.
⁶special attention may be due the range of CFC-substitutes
to be used by each nation. Japan, for example, is apparently
presenting figures that show larger reductions in radiative
forcing from phasing out unit amounts of CFCs than is the U.S.,
suggesting that Japan may be counting on selecting CFC-
substitutes with lower GWPs than those to be used in the U.S.
This also suggests that the Montreal Protocol, although
potentially helpful as a no regrets measure, may not by itself be
sufficient to address climate concerns associated with ozone-
depleting substances.
* DRAFT page 15 *
- Using a comprehensive approach, calculate the
influence each foreign proposal would have on net GHG
emissions and GHG concentrations.
- Include modeling of international energy markets and
effect of price responses to unilateral demand
reductions.
V.
Evaluating the comparative cost-effectiveness of piecemeal,
partial, and comprehensive approaches.
Advocacy of the comprehensive approach is based in part on
the intuitively strong hypothesis that the marginal costs of
control vary across gases, sources, sinks, and nations, so that
for any assumed limitation obligation,⁷ each nation's least-cost
mix of limitation strategies would be different and all nations,
regardless of their current GHG inventories, would be better off
under a comprehensive approach than under an approach which
placed separate limitation obligations on each gas or sector. 8
This task is needed to test that hypothesis and, if
confirmed, to demonstrate the value of the comprehensive
approach.
(A) Marginal costs: information and analyses needed to map
full comparative cost-effectiveness functions and
variations by gas, source, sink, sector, nation.
This task moves beyond analyses of specific existing
policy programs and evaluates the full marginal cost
functions facing policy makers and private actors.
-- Current Administration efforts:
- DOE/NES analysis for US energy sector policies and
afforestation
⁷As stated in the Introduction, given an assumed objective,
the task is to assess the comparative costs of achieving it under
different policy designs. This task does not assess the overall
rationality or economic efficiency of the chosen objective.
8 The aggregate shares calculated in the inventories (in
Part III (B), above) do not indicate the costs of incremental
limitations for each nation. Simply because a nation currently
has a large share in methane, for example, does not mean that
that nation would find methane reductions costlier than CO2
reductions, at the margin. Economic analysis is needed to test
the hypothesis of varying costs and to demonstrate the benefits
to every nation of being afforded the cross-gas, cross-sector,
and source-sink flexibility of the comprehensive approach.
* DRAFT page 16 *
-- Future work:
- Expand to cover all gases, sources, sinks, sectors
- Expand to cover other nations
- Assess full social costs, using general equilibrium
model rather than expenditures by the regulated
industry. 9 Make use of forthcoming Second Generation
GHG Emissions model (J. Edmonds developing for DOE)
Analyze costs over time, relation to innovation. 10
- Include (qualitative) evaluation of non-economic
costs to response options, e.g. cultural or
institutional barriers to certain policies
- Assess informational, administrative, and other
transactions costs of piecemeal, partial and
comprehensive approaches
(B) Use cost-effectiveness analyses to evaluating costs and
benefits to the US and other nations of possible
piecemeal, partial and comprehensive options that will
be suggested for international policy design
This task moves beyond the analysis of current policy
proposals suggested in section IV above to examine the
marginal costs of policy designs, and to consider both
proposed and hypothetical policy designs. It also focuses
on international accords rather than national actions. This
task is essential if U.S. policy makers and negotiators are
to be able to assess policy proposals that inevitably be
made as negotiations on a framework convention on climate
change unfold.
Potential policy designs to be compared include: CO2
only, all GHGs, or all GHGs except those covered under the
Montreal Protocol; sources only, point sources only, all
sources and sinks, or sources and terrestrial sinks only;
all sectors, or certain sectors (e.g. energy, industry,
transport, agriculture, forestry).
(C) Evaluate the environmental effectiveness of
9 The comparative impacts on macroeconomic and international
variables (e.g. trade, competitiveness, economic growth) would
require separate study.
10 Evaluation should also address the likely economic
impacts in the US and worldwide of potential future changes in
the understanding of the gas-comparison index, and means to
cushion adverse impacts (e.g. periodic public science reviews).
* DRAFT page 17 *
comprehensive and piecemeal approaches: propensity and
impact of induced shifts in residuals
Thus far, for any given policy goal, a piecemeal (e.g.
CO2-only) approach and a comprehensive approach have been
assumed to yield identical results in terms of aggregated
GWP (or full environmental impacts). In other words,
whether a reduction in net index-weighted ("CO2-equivalent")
emissions were achieved in CO2 or in a combination of gases,
the overall calculated effect on the index value of concern
would be the same.
But such analysis fails to account for actual economic
and social responses to policy interventions. Advocacy of
the comprehensive approach is based in part on the
intuitively strong hypothesis that including all gases,
sources and sinks ensures better effectiveness in any effort
to limit contributions to potential radiative forcing (or
full impacts), because piecemeal rules applying to one gas,
source (or sector), or sink will engender shifts of
socioeconomic activity from regulated to unregulated modes,
undercutting achievement of policy goals.
-- Current Administration efforts:
- Understanding of prior piecemeal approaches in
environmental regulation and their resultant shifts of
residuals, including single-medium approaches, e.g. to
discharges into air, land, and water; and single-
pollutant approaches, e.g. to S02.
- DOE/NES study will address CO2 and CH4 emissions from
energy sector; it should consider potential GHG-related
environmental effects of fuel switching, new energy
sources, and sectoral shifts.
-- Future work:
- Conduct case studies of cross-gas shifts: e.g. fossil
fuel switching (coal to natural gas) induced by CO2-
only policies could have attendant impacts on C02-to-
CH4 emissions shifts due to CH4 leakage from natural
gas transport- 11
- Expand cross-gas shift studies, e.g. apply coal-to-
gas C02-CH4 shift analysis to actual global GHG output
and in light of likely GHG emissions/leaks from future
coal and gas facilities
11 See, e.g., Rodhe, Science 8 June 1990. Using a 100-year
time horizon and a CO2-equivalent GWP for CH4 of 10, Rodhe
estimates that if a C02-reduction policy were accomplished by
fuel switching from coal to natural gas, a 3-6% CH4 leakage rate
from natural gas transport facilities would fully offset all the
CO2 reductions resulting from the fuel switch.
* DRAFT page 18 *
- Evaluate other cross-gas shifts, e.g. CH4 to N20 in
agriculture under a CH4-only policy
- Evaluate cross-source/sector shifts: e.g. under a
transport-only policy, possible shift from fossil fuel
combustion on board vehicles to electric cars powered
by central utility combustion, or to use of intensely
cultivated biomass fuels; e.g. under an energy-only or
fossil fuel-only policy, possible shift to biomass
fuels whose cultivation emits other GHGs
- Include consideration of international market
responses to unilateral policy choices
(D) Evaluate the environmental benefits of a "net emissions"
approach
A net emissions approach, encompassing both sources and
sinks, would encourage sink protection and expansion,
whereas a source-only approach would not. Sink policies
encouraged could include afforestation and protection of
marine phytoplankton from pollution. This task is to
evaluate the side benefits of likely sink policies, e.g.
reduced soil erosion, enhanced biodiversity, protected
phytoplankton, and better timber management.
(E) Evaluate the environmental effectiveness of the
comprehensive approach: assess implications of
employing a "full impacts" index
As described above in section II.B, a full impacts
index would better internalize the environmental impacts
associated with GHGs. This task is to quantify the
environmental and socioeconomic benefits and costs of the
use of such an index.
VI. Addressing the objection that the comprehensive approach is
technically difficult or infeasible
As discussed in the introduction, the comprehensive approach
can be applied to assist in design of various policies, including
research strategies, technology development strategies,
enumeration of "no regrets" steps, and emissions limitation
strategies. For most of these options, the comprehensive
approach can be applied immediately, despite potential
uncertainties, as a general guide to intelligent analysis of the
scope and relative importance of policy choices.
* DRAFT page 19 *
For implementing emissions limitations, however, prompt
application of the comprehensive approach might be somewhat more
difficult. In principle, a comprehensive approach appears to be
the most appropriate way to design any emissions limitation
policy. But as indicated above, there are noteworthy gaps and
uncertainties in the information on emissions of certain gases
from certain sources and uptake by certain sinks. If emissions
limitations were to be imposed today, a fully comprehensive
approach would not be available. If emissions limitations are
not needed immediately, work on the comprehensive approach can
continue toward a time when limitations might be agreed. If
emissions limitations are to be agreed at some point before all
informational gaps are filled, a partially comprehensive approach
could be employed with a mechanism for moving to a fully
comprehensive approach as these gaps are filled. 12
The issue for policy makers is not whether the comprehensive
approach is "feasible, " but whether at any point the social costs
of implementing an incompletely comprehensive approach -- in
terms of environmental effectiveness and economic efficiency, as
described in section V above -- are outweighed by the social
costs of obtaining additional information (including costs of
delay). In other words, one must ask whether the marginal value
of additional information (a more comprehensive approach) exceeds
the marginal cost of obtaining additional information. Another
way of examining the issue is to ask at what point would one know
enough to proceed comprehensively; and to ask how (and at what
cost) a comprehensive approach could evolve from incremental
steps. Further, one would consider institutional means to
incorporate incentives into any partial strategy that encourage
evolution toward a comprehensive approach.
The scientific building blocks of the comprehensive approach
are described above in sections I-III. In addition,
consideration of the need to bridge from a partial to a
comprehensive approach would include:
-- Future work:
- Assess the time and expense needed to answer
scientific questions, develop proxy measurement
devices, and build monitoring capabilities to achieve a
workable comprehensive approach.
- Assess other constraints to employment of a fully
comprehensive approach, including institutional,
political, cultural and economic obstacles.
- Compare the costs of acquiring this needed
information to the socioeconomic and environmental
12 Yet it must be recognized that piecemeal approaches, once
adopted, generally attract vested interests who resist any
efforts to expand toward a comprehensive approach.
* DRAFT page 20 *
costs (and foregone benefits) of adopting a piecemeal
policy design for want of such information.
- Develop policy and institutional designs that offer
incentives for needed research. For example, an
emissions limitation obligation in an international
agreement could be framed in a piecemeal fashion but
offer the opportunity to emitters to achieve compliance
through limitation actions addressing other GHGs,
sources or sinks, so long as the emitter demonstrates
the accomplishment. This would give emitters
incentives to undertake the research needed to develop
new monitoring capabilities.
- Consider intermediate approaches such as incremental
or phased-in designs toward comprehensivity, and means
to bridge from them to a fully comprehensive approach.
VII. Integrating prior and concurrent law and policies into a
comprehensive approach.
Even if a fully comprehensive approach were available for
use in emissions limitations at any relevant point, it is
apparent that other treaties, laws and policies will already be
addressing discrete GHGs, sources, and sinks. Some means would
be needed to accommodate and integrate these diverse endeavors
into the comprehensive approach. Several options are available
for such integration. One option is to use a comprehensive
approach to net GHGs in any emissions limitation protocol while
varying the baseline of allowed credit according to prior treaty
obligations. A related option is to incorporate in a framework
convention on climate the assurance to nations, in advance of any
hypothetical future protocol obligations (not yet agreed to),
that they would receive credit against any such obligations for
current or past (after a certain date) net emissions limitations
actions, whether taken pursuant to treaties or national policies;
the convention would further calculate the value of such actions
according to the comprehensive approach. This would assure
credit for "no regrets" measures, avoid disincentives to "no
regrets" actions, and give root to the comprehensive approach,
while not yet committing to emissions limitations obligations.
-- Current Administration efforts:
- devising means to ensure that international agreement
integrates (gives credit for) "no regrets" actions,
other international agreements (forestry, VOCs, GHGs
covered by ozone agreements), other domestic laws and
initiatives. (DOJ, EPA, State)
-- Future work:
- Demonstrate incentive advantages of integration
* DRAFT page 21 *
- lack of integration would yield perverse
disincentives to take actions, even "no regrets"
actions that are justified on other grounds, lest
they be denied credit once emissions limitations
are agreed.
- Address possible overclaiming (see "monitoring" and
"verification," above)
- Demonstrate advantages for other nations under
integrated design
- Demonstrate environmental advantages of integration
- Address issues of legal grafting presented by terms
or design of other agreements, laws
- Consider possible offset model (e.g. defining any
limitation obligations in terms of CO2 emissions, to
satisfy those eager for CO2 limits, but authorize
offsets for any verifiable limits on any GHG, source,
or sink, thus effectively constructing a comprehensive
approach)
* DRAFT page 22 *
Research and Analysis Underlying the Incentives Approach
As described in the Introduction, a variety of market-based
incentives might be considered in the climate change context.
The possible uses and advantages of these approaches are
summarized in the Introduction.
I.
Emissions trading
(A) Domestic trading
-- Current Administration efforts:
- review of past and current experience, e.g. lead
phasedown, netting/bubble/offset program, CFCs
trading, new acid precipitation trading scheme.
Primarily EPA, DOE, CEA.
- consider application to GHGs; consider issues of
implementation, e.g. informal versus formal
trading; who would trade; duration of allowances;
means of distributing allowances; market power;
hoarding; scope of GHGs, sectors, sources and
sinks; monitoring trades; etc.
-- Future work:
- Evaluate the comparative cost-effectiveness of
emissions trading and command-and-control
approaches
(B) International trading
-- Current Administration efforts:
- present US experience and suggestions at
international discussion on application to climate
-- Future work:
- Extend analysis of above issues to international
context, e.g. informal versus formal trading; who
would trade; duration of allowances; means of
distributing allowances; market power; hoarding;
scope of trading among GHGs, sources, sinks,
sectors, industries, geographical areas, stages of
development; monitoring trades
- In addition, consider international
institutions; trade, assistance and national
income implications; sovereignty issues; cultural
or ethical objections to so-called "selling the
right to pollute"; trading as a decentralized,
* DRAFT page 23 *
market-based 13 vehicle for resource and technology
transfers
- Assess informational, administrative, and other
transactions costs of emissions trading and
command and control policies
- Identify opportunities for cross-national
trades, and hence likely trading partners (for the
US and worldwide)
- Evaluate the comparative cost-effectiveness of
emissions trading and command-and-control
approaches
II. Emissions fees
Fees might be employed domestically or internationally
to address GHG emissions. Options discussed to date include
carbon taxes based on the carbon content of energy fuels, and
energy taxes. Other options include an energy sector tax that
covers both CO2 and CH4 emissions from energy activities, using
their GWP index ratings to weight the tax; and a more general
multi-sector tax calibrated to the GWP index (or full
environmental impacts index) rating of each gas.
-- Current Administration efforts:
- analysis of energy sector taxes in DOE/NES
- analysis of various fees in EPA "Comprehensive
Budget" analysis
- related efforts: numerous studies have used assumed
taxes to examine costs of GHG limitations policies.
E.g. CBO (Montgomery), Manne & Richels, Nordhaus. See
CEA overview of Economics of Global Change.
-- Future work:
- Improve assessment of tax implications. Consider
international fuels market impacts; use general
equilibrium models; address fiscal concerns.
- Consider variety of tax policy designs, including,
carbon, energy, GWP within energy sector, etc.
- Much of this kind of consideration must be deferred
to budget negotiations.
III. Adaptation Incentives
Market mechanisms and institutional reforms could be used to
encourage efficient adaptation practices. Because of current
13 In addition, consider the options for trading within
regional associations such as OECD, EC, ASEAN. Evidently the EC
and OECD are both considering association-wide policies.
* DRAFT page 24 *
institutional or market failures, long-range investments, such as
coastal construction or water use planning, might be undertaken
without giving appropriate weight to any climate change risks
(e.g. rising sea levels or shifting precipitation). Such
institutional or market failures might be addressed by
informational or incentive-based policies, such as requiring
coastal construction to purchase subsidence insurance, or
encouraging long-range water use planning to take account of
potential precipitation patterns. Some of these types of
policies were addressed in the IPCC/RSWG RUMS and CZMS reports.
IV. Economic instruments in general
-- Future work:
- Pursue contacts with OECD regarding Environment
Ministerial in January, Economic Instruments analytic
workplan (experts meeting now tentatively slated for October
1990), and potential OECD Workshop on Economic
Instruments. 14
- Develop suggestions for economic analysis and study of
economic instruments in upcoming IPCC Future Workplan
discussions (tentatively slated for December or January).
- Continue to work with CEES groups, including the new Ad
Hoc Economics task group, to develop economic analysis of
policy proposals and designs (addressing "comprehensive
approach" issues as well as "incentives" approach issues).
14 Preparing for the suggested OECD Workshop on Economic
Instruments, tentatively slated for December 1990, will involve
considerations of forum and cosponsorship, logistics and timing,
relation to other OECD meetings, relation to other international
meetings, invitees, topics to address, an October experts
meeting, relation to the upcoming IPCC meeting on Future Work of
the IPCC, and US presentation (s) at the December Workshop.
* DRAFT page 25 *
Possible attachments:
--
February 1990 "Informal Seminar" booklet
--
IPCC Overview and PMSs
--
Materials on GHG indices
including GWPs papers
including papers on non-warming impacts
and possible design for "full impacts" index
--
GHG Inventories presentation from EPA
-- EPA "Comprehensive Budget" analysis of U.S. "no regrets"
actions
-- Papers on residual shifts, including
Paper on cross-media shifts
Paper on C02-CH4 shifts (e.g. Rodhe)
Paper on S02-C02 shifts due to scrubbers policy
--
NES chapter on climate ?
--
CEES GC/MARS research guide for the comprehensive approach
(Albritton/Watson paper)
-- "Integrating ... Brainstorming" paper
--
new OECD draft of Econ. Instruments workplan (not yet rec'd)
--
--
--
--