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4
Our Changing Planet:
The FY 1990 Research Plan
THE U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE
RESEARCH PROGRAM
A Report by the
Committee on Earth Sciences
July 1989
This photograph of the Earth was taken from the Apollo 10 Spacecraft. Much of the Earth
is heavily cloud covered. A portion of the United States from the Great Lakes to Southern
California, including the Rocky Mountain area, is visible. The North American coastline
from Southern Mexico to Alaska can be seen.
Our Changing Planet:
The FY 1990 Research Plan
THE U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE
RESEARCH PROGRAM
A Report by the Committee
on Earth Sciences
July 1989
Office of Science and Technology Policy
Federal Coordinating Council on Science,
Engineering, and Technology
Committee on Earth Sciences
Chairman
Dallas Peck, Department of the Interior, United States
Geological Survey
Vice-Chairman
Richard G. Johnson, Office of Science and Technology Policy (Consultant)
Members:
Beverly J. Berger, Office of Science and Technology Policy
Frederick M. Bernthal, Department of State
Erich Bloch, National Science Foundation
Erich Bretthauer, Environmental Protection Agency
William Diefenderfer III, Office of Management and Budget
Travis P. Dungan, Department of Transportation
Charles E. Hess, United States Department of Agriculture
A. Alan Hill, Council on Environmental Quality
Robert O. Hunter, Jr., Department of Energy
George Millburn, Department of Defense
Melvin N. A. Peterson, Department of Commerce
Richard H. Truly, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Harlan L. Watson, Department of the Interior
Executive Secretary
John Houghton, Department of the Interior, United States
Geological Survey
(See Appendix C for the CES Charter)
ii
EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY
Washington, D.C. 20506
Early in 1989, I transmitted to the U.S. Congress a report which accompanied the Presi-
dent's FY 1990 Budget outlining the goals, implementation strategy, and research budget of the
U.S. Global Change Research Program. This strategy document, entitled "Our Changing Planet:
A U.S. Strategy for Global Change Research," was the product of an intense interagency effort
by experts in various earth sciences and other disciplines. This interagency effort was coordi-
nated by the Committee on Earth Sciences (CES) of the Federal Coordinating Council for
Science, Engineering, and Technology. The strategy document promised a detailed and compre-
hensive research plan based on the research strategy to be published in 1989.
I am pleased to forward with this letter the U.S. Global Change Research Program
research plan for FY 1990. This research plan focuses on establishing a sound scientific basis
for developing national and international policy on global change issues. Global changes such
as desertification, drought, volcanism, and global warming can have a tremendous economic and
societal impact. The relative roles of human activity and natural processes in these changes are
of great importance but are, at present, unknown. In addition, our knowledge is insufficient to
reliably predict the likely degree, rate, or timing of these changes. Improving our ability to
understand and to ultimately predict global changes, whether natural or human-induced, is
essential. The CES research plan represents a well-coordinated federal research program to
address these issues and provides a strong foundation for international cooperation.
The scientific objectives of the research plan are to monitor, understand, and ultimately
predict global change. The report outlines a priority framework for focusing and integrating the
interagency research efforts to ensure that they meet these objectives. This priority framework
was derived from numerous research priorities outlined by both the U.S. and international
communities. It indicates research areas that require progress to improve our understanding of
both natural and human-induced global changes. This research plan provides a solid foundation
for future planning and will be updated periodically to reflect our growing understanding of
global environmental changes.
I take this opportunity to thank and commend Chairman Dallas Peck and his interagency
committee members and staff who have done an outstanding job in preparing this report.
William R. Mraham
William R. Graham
Director
iii
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Table of Contents
Committee on Earth Sciences Membership
ii
Office of Science and Technology Policy Transmittal Letter
iii
List of Tables and Figures
xi
PREFACE
xii
U.S. Global Change Research Program At-A-Glance
xiii
INTRODUCTION
1
Purpose and Structure of This Document
1
Background to The U.S. Global Change Research Program
3
What Is Global Change?
3
Role of Scientific Understanding
4
Science and Policy
5
Needed: A Predictive Understanding of the Earth System
6
The Scope of The U.S. Global Change Research Program
7
THE PROGRAM'S APPROACH TO GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH
8
Program Goal
8
Achievability of the Goal
8
Key Scientific Questions
10
What Global Changes Have Occurred in the Past and Are Occurring Now?
10
Proxy Record
10
Direct Measurement
11
What Physical, Geological, Chemical, Biological, and Social Processes Are Involved
in Influencing Global Change and Its Environmental Impacts?
12
Global Change Forcing Agents
12
Global System Interactions
12
How Well Can Global Change and Its Impacts Be Predicted?
14
Model Simulation of the Past
14
Model Simulation of the Present
14
Model Prediction of the Future
15
Implementation Strategy: Scientific Objectives
16
Establish an Integrated, Comprehensive Long-Term Program of Documenting the Earth
System on a Global Scale
16
Observational Programs
16
Data Management Systems
16
V
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Conduct a Program of Focused Studies to Improve Our Understanding of the Physical,
Geological, Chemical, Biological, and Social Processes That Influence the Earth
System Processes and Trends on Global and Regional Scales
17
Develop Integrated Conceptual and Predictive Earth System Models
17
Scientific Approach
18
The Levels of Disciplinary Integration
18
The Current Status of Disciplinary Integration
19
Scientific Assessments
20
Coordination Mechanisms
20
National and International Scientific Community
21
Government Agencies
22
Intergovernmental Science Bodies
22
The Overall Organizational Challenge
23
THE FY 1990 RESEARCH PLAN: U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE PROGRAM
AND FY 1990 INITIATIVES
27
Climate and Hydrologic Systems
28
Global-Scale, Long-Term Observations of the Climate and Hydrologic Systems
30
Strengths of Current Observational Programs
30
Weaknesses in Current Observational Programs and High Priority Research Needs
31
FY 1990 Agency Initiatives and/or Augmentations (Observations)
33
Improving the Understanding of Climate and Hydrologic Processes
34
Strengths of Current Understanding
34
Weaknesses in Current Understanding and High Priority Research Needs
35
FY 1990 Agency Initiatives and/or Augmentations (Understanding)
36
Developing Predictive Models
37
Strengths of Current Models
37
Weaknesses in Current Models and High Priority Research Needs
38
FY 1990 Agency Initiatives and/or Augmentations (Models)
40
Biogeochemical Dynamics
42
Global-Scale, Long-Term Observations of Biogeochemical Dynamics
44
Strengths of Current Observational Programs
44
Weaknesses in Current Observational Programs and High Priority Research Needs
45
FY 1990 Agency Initiatives and/or Augmentations (Observations)
46
Improving the Understanding of Biogeochemical Processes
47
Strengths of Current Understanding
47
Weaknesses in Current Understanding and High Priority Research Needs
49
FY 1990 Agency Initiatives and/or Augmentations (Understanding)
50
Developing Predictive Models
51
Strengths of Current Models
51
vi
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Weaknesses in Current Models and High Priority Research Needs
52
FY 1990 Agency Initiatives and/or Augmentations (Models)
53
Ecological Systems and Dynamics
54
Global-Scale, Long-Term Observations of Ecological Systems and Dynamics
56
Strengths of Current Observational Programs
56
Weaknesses in Current Observational Programs and High Priority Research Needs 57
FY 1990 Agency Initiatives and/or Augmentations (Observations)
58
Improving the Understanding of Ecological Processes
59
Strengths of Current Understanding
59
Weaknesses in Current Understanding and High Priority Research Needs
59
FY 1990 Agency Initiatives and/or Augmentations (Understanding)
60
Developing Predictive Models
61
Strengths of Current Models
61
Weaknesses in Current Models and High Priority Research Needs
62
FY 1990 Agency Initiatives and/or Augmentations (Models)
63
Earth System History
64
Global-Scale, Long-Term Observations of Earth System History
65
Strengths of Current Observational Programs
65
Weaknesses in Current Observational Programs and High Priority Research Needs 66
FY 1990 Agency Initiatives and/or Augmentations (Observations)
67
Improving the Understanding of Earth System History Processes
67
Strengths of Current Understanding
67
Weaknesses in Current Understanding and High Priority Research Needs
68
FY 1990 Agency Initiatives and/or Augmentations (Understanding)
69
Developing Predictive Models
69
Strengths of Current Models
69
Weaknesses in Current Models and High Priority Research Needs
70
FY 1990 Agency Initiatives and/or Augmentations (Models)
70
Human Interactions
71
Global-Scale, Long-Term Observations of Human Interactions
72
Strengths of Current Observational Programs
72
Weaknesses in Current Observational Programs and High Priority Research Needs 73
FY 1990 Agency Initiatives and/or Augmentations (Observations)
74
Improving the Understanding of Human Interactions
74
Strengths of Current Understanding
74
Weaknesses in Current Understanding and High Priority Research Needs
75
FY 1990 Agency Initiatives and/or Augmentations (Understanding)
76
Developing Predictive Models
76
Strengths of Current Models
76
Weaknesses in Current Models and High Priority Research Needs
76
FY 1990 Agency Initiatives and/or Augmentations (Models)
77
vii
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Solid Earth Processes
78
Global-Scale, Long-Term Observations of Solid Earth Processes
81
Strengths of Current Observational Programs
81
Weaknesses in Current Observational Programs and High Priority Research Needs
81
FY 1990 Agency Initiatives and/or Augmentations (Observations)
82
Improving the Understanding of Solid Earth Processes
82
Strengths of Current Understanding
82
Weaknesses in Current Understanding and High Priority Research Needs
83
FY 1990 Agency Initiatives and/or Augmentations (Understanding)
83
Developing Predictive Models
84
Strengths of Current Models
84
Weaknesses in Current Models and High Priority Research Needs
84
FY 1990 Agency Initiatives and/or Augmentations (Models)
84
Solar Influences
85
Global-Scale, Long-Term Observations of Solar Influences
86
Strengths of Current Observational Programs
86
Weaknesses in Current Observational Programs and High Priority Research Needs
86
FY 1990 Agency Initiatives and/or Augmentations (Observations)
87
Improving the Understanding of Solar Influences
87
Strengths of Current Understanding
87
Weaknesses in Current Understanding and High Priority Research Needs
88
FY 1990 Agency Initiatives and/or Augmentations (Understanding)
88
Developing Predictive Models
89
Strengths of Current Models
89
Weaknesses in Current Models and High Priority Research Needs
89
FY 1990 Agency Initiatives and/or Augmentations (Models)
90
Data Management
91
Management of Global-Scale, Long-Term Data from Observation Systems
95
Strengths of Current Management of Global-Scale, Long-Term Data from
Observation Systems
95
Weaknesses in Current Management of Global-Scale, Long-Term Data from
Observation Systems and High Priority Research Needs
96
FY 1990 Agency Initiatives and/or Augmentations (Data Management)
97
Organization of Data Sets to Improve the Understanding of Global Change Processes
98
Strengths of Current Organization of Data Sets to Improve Understanding
98
Weaknesses in Current Organization of Data Sets and High Priority Research
Needs to Improve Understanding of Global Change Processes
98
Analyses and Preparation of Data Sets for the Development and Validation of Predictive
Global Change Models
99
Strengths of Current Analyses and Preparation of Data Sets
99
Weaknesses in Current Analyses and Preparation of Data Sets and High Priority
Research Needs
99
viii
TABLE OF CONTENTS
PRIORITY FRAMEWORK FOR THE U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE
RESEARCH PROGRAM
Strategic Priorities
101
Integrating Priorities
102
Science Priorities
102
Climate and Hydrologic Systems
105
Biogeochemical Dynamics
106
Ecological Systems and Dynamics
106
Earth System History
107
Human Interactions
108
Solid Earth Processes
108
Solar Influences
109
Evaluation Criteria
110
FY 1989-1990 U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM BUDGET 111
FY 1989-1990 Budget Summary
111
FY 1990 Initiatives
111
Budget by Science Element
113
Budget by Agency
115
Budget by Federal Budget Function
116
APPENDIX A: AGENCY ROLES
A-1
APPENDIX B: THE CURRENT U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH
PROGRAM
B-1
Cross-cutting Program Characteristics
B-1
Focused Versus Contributing Programs
B-2
Description of Current Agency Programs
B-3
Department of Commerce - National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration
B-6
Department of Defense
B-11
Department of Energy
B-15
Department of the Interior
B-20
Environmental Protection Agency
B-31
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
B-36
National Science Foundation
B-49
ix
TABLE OF CONTENTS
United States Department of Agriculture
B-56
APPENDIX C: CES CHARTER
C-1
X
TABLE OF CONTENTS
List of Tables and Figures
Tables
1.
U.S. Global Change Research Program Budget for Fiscal Years 1989 and 1990
112
2.
U.S. Global Change Research Program Budget by Federal Budget Function for Fiscal
Years 1989 and 1990
118
B-1. U.S. Global Change Research Program Budget for Fiscal Years 1989 and 1990
B-4
Figures
1.
World Climate Research Program: Organizational Structure
24
2.
The national and international organizations involved in the planning, coordination,
support and/or conduct of global change research
25
3.
A schematic representation of the components of the physical climate system and some
of the significant processes in the fluxes of energy and water
28
4.
Schematic representation of biogeochemical dynamics: the major reservoirs and the
cycling processes that link them
42
5.
Ecosystem responses to environmental change
54
6.
Schematic representation of some of the sources of paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental
records preserved in the geologic record
64
7.
Representation of the impact of human activities on the global environment
71
8.
Schematic representation of solid Earth processes active at various interfaces of the
geosphere
78
9.
The Sun-Earth relations: Solar output, orbital characteristics, and the Earth as a
receptor
85
10. Data management for the U.S. Global Change Research Program
91
11. U.S. Global Change Research Program Priority Framework
104
12. U.S. Global Change Research Program Budget by Science Element
114
13. U.S. Global Change Research Program Budget by Agency
116
14. U.S. Global Change Research Program Budget by Federal Budget Function
117
xi
PREFACE
Preface
In January 1989, a report entitled "Our Changing Planet: A U.S. Strategy for Global Change
Research" accompanied the President's Fiscal Year 1990 Budget to the Congress. This report drew
attention to the significant environmental issues arising from both natural and human-induced
changes in the global "Earth system." It underscored the scientific uncertainties and policy chal-
lenges that are associated with them. To address these issues and uncertainties, the report announced
the beginning of a U.S. research program that will focus on the scientific questions posed by global
change. This multi-agency endeavor, the U.S. Global Change Research Program, will seek to
improve understanding of the causes, processes, and consequences of the changes affecting our
planet. By so doing, the Program may provide a sound scientific basis for related public policy
decisions.
The present document, "Our Changing Planet: The FY 1990 Research Plan," describes the
beginnings of the Program and sets forth a comprehensive research plan that will be updated annu-
ally. It reviews the changes that have occurred in the past, the forces that are at work today, the
strengths and weaknesses in our current understanding and research activities regarding global
change, and our potential for predicting global change in the future. It identifies research activities
and funding levels by the Federal agencies, particularly the Fiscal Year 1990 initiatives and augmen-
tations, that seek to address the gaps in current knowledge. Finally, it outlines the science priorities
that must be addressed by the Program in the coming years to gain a better predictive understanding
of the global system.
This Research Plan describes the details of the U.S. Global Change Research Program. In
addition, an accompanying, comprehensive Executive Summary has been published separately. It
provides the highlights of the scientific background, purpose, goals, scope, priorities, and budget of
the U.S. Global Change Research Program. A summary of those highlights is presented here.
xii
THE U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM
AT-A-GLANCE
Many global changes can have tremendous impact on the welfare of humans. These events
may stem from natural processes that began millions of years ago or from human influence.
Responding to these changes without a strong scientific basis could be futile and very costly.
This report presents a comprehensive research plan for the U.S. Global Change Research
Program.
The goal of the Program is to provide a sound scientific basis for national and international
decision making on global change issues.
The Program's goals, objectives, research priorities, and strategy are consistent with current
national and international global change planning and research efforts.
The scientific objectives of the Program are to monitor, understand, and ultimately predict
global change.
The Program is broad in scope, encompassing the full range of Earth system changes, including
physical, chemical, geological, social, and biological changes. The Program addresses both
natural phenomena, as well as the effects of human activity.
The particular research activities which comprise the U.S. Global Change Research Program
are grouped into seven interdisciplinary scientific elements:
1. Climate and Hydrologic Systems
2. Biogeochemical Dynamics
3. Ecological Systems and Dynamics
4. Earth System History
5. Human Interactions
6. Solid Earth Processes
7. Solar Influences
In fiscal year 1989, funding for focused global change research activities total $133.9 million.
The President's FY 1990 budget proposes a funding level of $191.5 million, a 43 percent
increase for focused programs. This substantial increase will enable the Program to expand and
accelerate its research activities in most areas of global change research.
This strategy was developed by a U.S. Federal interagency group, the Committee on Earth
Sciences of the Federal Coordinating Council for Science, Engineering, and Technology
(FCCSET). The FCCSET is chaired by the Director of the Office of Science and Technology
Policy in the Executive Office of the President.
xiii
INTRODUCTION
Introduction
Purpose and Structure of This Document
This document is a comprehensive extension of the outline of the U.S. Global Change Re-
search Program presented in Our Changing Planet: A U.S. Strategy for Global Change Research
(Committee on Earth Sciences, January 1989). That brief overview of the Program accompanied the
President's Fiscal Year 1990 Budget, the first budget to reflect specific augmentations for Govern-
ment-wide, integrated research focused on global change.
Our Changing Planet: A U.S. Strategy for Global Change Research summarized:
the manifestations of natural and human-
Our Changing Planet:
induced global change;
A U.S. Strategy
for Global Change Research
societal needs for a better scientific
understanding of such changes;
key scientific questions that must be
answered;
the U.S. Global Change Research
Program's goals, research objectives,
and implementation strategy for
addressing those questions;
agencies and national and interna-
tional organizations involved; and
A Report by the Committee on Earth Sciences
To Accompany the
the Fiscal Year 1989 and 1990 budgets, by
U.S. President's Fiscal Year 1990 Budget
agency and activities.
This follow-up document sets forth an initial research plan (Plan) for the U.S. Global Change
Research Program. Its purpose is to facilitate the planning and coordination of the Federal research
and budgetary activities of the Program. The Plan has been developed in response to the recent
recognition by national and international scientists and policymakers that the global Earth system
may be significantly altered as a result of mankind. In formulating the Plan, the Committee on Earth
Sciences (CES) has drawn upon the national and international research plans and recommendations
developed by the scientific communities over the past few years that call for a systematic and inte-
grated study to better understand the global environment and its susceptibility to change. In particu-
lar, the CES has drawn heavily on the work of the Committee on Global Change of the U.S. National
Academy of Sciences (CGC/NAS), the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) of the World
Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU), and
the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP) of ICSU. The Plan has been prepared
primarily for those who make decisions regarding the conduct and funding of global change research
and related activities, including:
Federal research agencies
Federal executive offices
Congress
1
INTRODUCTION
Preparation of an annual plan, such as this first one, will aid development of a suite of Fed-
eral research agency activities that (i) are closely linked and complementary and (ii) have a common
intellectual framework and goal. Together, these activities make up the Program. The Plan will
serve as a common platform for describing the proposed U.S. Global Change Research Program
budgets of the agencies for each fiscal year. By outlining the key questions, the research needs, and
the priorities established, the Plan will be an important aid to the Office of Management and Budget
and to Congress in decisions regarding budget allocations.
In addition, by defining the initial research and implementation strategies of the Program, the
Plan will be a useful vehicle for the review and advice of the CGC/NAS and other scientific organi-
zations. It will also assist in coordination and planning of the U.S. Global Change Research Pro-
gram with analogous international endeavors, such as the IGBP and WCRP, and other elements of
the World Climate Program (WCP). CES will continue to develop and emphasize a science plan and
management structure that involves explicitly both national and international partnerships between
scientific and government organizations.
This document has three main sections, as follows:
"The Program's Approach to Global Change Research" establishes what scientific
knowledge is necessary and what is the best current approach to acquiring it in order
to understand global change so that its impacts can be more reliably predicted. This
section:
establishes the goal sought and its achievability,
poses the scientific questions that must be addressed, and
describes the implementation strategy, i.e., the objectives that must be reached,
the nature of the interdisciplinary scientific work that must be done, and the
organizational structure that must be achieved to make the endeavor efficient.
"The Research Plan" examines the activities and needs for each of the seven interdis-
ciplinary science elements: climate and hydrologic systems, biogeochemical dynam-
ics, ecological systems and dynamics, Earth system history, human interactions, solid
Earth processes, and solar influences. For each of these elements, the document does
the following:
assesses the strengths of current agency programs,
identifies the weaknesses and the highest priority areas of needed research, and
outlines FY 1990 research initiatives and/or augmentations by Federal agency.
"Priority Framework for the U.S. Global Change Research Program" describes how
the Program will proceed to meet the proposed objectives. The overall strategic,
integrating, and research priorities are summarized. The strategic and integrating
priorities that guide the implementation of the program and the research needs that
are deemed to be of the highest priority within the program and the seven science
elements are outlined. Lastly, the FY 1989 and 1990 U.S. Global Change Research
Program budgets are tabulated.
2
INTRODUCTION
"FY 1989-1990 U.S. Global Change Research Program Budget" tabulates and pres-
ents the budgets for the various research programs by science element, agency, and
Federal Budget Function.
Three appendices contain related information and additional supporting details:
Appendix A summarizes the role of each of the Federal agencies in the U.S. Global
Change Research Program, and
Appendix B defines the terms used in this document, tabulates the FY 1989 and FY
1990 budgets for both the focused and contributing programs, and describes the
agencies' FY 1989 global change activities, categorized by the interdisciplinary
science elements. The analyses of the strengths and weaknesses of current research
found in the main text are drawn from the information in this Appendix.
Appendix C contains the charter for the Committee on Earth Sciences.
This document focuses primarily on the research planning associated with the
FY 1990 budget process and also serves as a guide for future planning and development of the
Program. The Plan will be updated annually. Each update will document the progress of the Pro-
gram and highlight its major accomplishments. It must be emphasized that this program description
and plan present a description of the current activities and organizational framework and the initial
priorities for the U.S. Global Change Research Program. In developing both the Plan and the sci-
ence priorities, consideration was given to the scientific needs and importance of each activity,
budgetary constraints, the maturity of the scientific planning, and the institutional and organizational
support required to initiate or augment specific research activities. The Program priorities and
emphases certainly will change as scientific understanding, agency infrastructure, and national and
international organizational structures evolve. The degree to which future research requires that
these analyses be updated, and hence the degree to which the annual versions of this document
change, will be a measure of success of the U.S. Global Change Research Program.
Background to The U.S. Global Change Research Program
What Is Global Change?
The Earth is a place of change. The geological record testifies that the Earth's environment
has been subject to change over eons - much of it occurring slowly over many millennia, but some
relatively rapidly over decades. The changes are in response to such phenomena as the migration of
continents, the building and erosion of mountains, the reorganization of oceans, the orbital character-
istics of the sun and the planets, variations in solar output, and even the catastrophic impacts of large
meteorites. These underlying causes lead to changes on local, regional, and global scales: a succes-
sion of warm and cool epochs, the appearance and disappearance of large deserts and marshlands,
new distributions of tropical forests and rich grasslands, advances and retreats of great ice sheets,
rising and falling sea and lake levels, and the extinction of vast numbers of species.
Although these changes are the inevitable results of major natural forces beyond human
control, it is apparent that a relative newcomer to the scene - Homo sapiens - has now become a
powerful agent of environmental change. The chemistry of the atmosphere has been altered signifi-
3
INTRODUCTION
cantly by agricultural and industrial revolutions. The erosion of continents and sedimentation of
rivers and shorelines have been influenced drastically by agriculture and construction. The produc-
tion and release of toxic chemicals have affected the health and distributions of biotic populations.
The development of water resources has affected patterns of natural water exchange in the hydro-
logical cycle (e.g., enhanced evaporation from reservoirs compared to that from unregulated rivers).
As world population grows and the world undergoes further technological development, the role of
the planet's most influential denizen as an agent of environmental change will undoubtedly expand.
Evidence accumulated in the last two decades indicates that environmental changes are the
result of complex interplays among a number of natural and human-related systems. For example,
changes in the Earth's climate involve not only winds and clouds in the atmosphere, but also the
interactive effects of the biosphere, ocean currents, human influences on atmospheric chemistry, the
Earth's orbital characteristics, the reflective properties of the planet, and the distribution of water
between the atmosphere, hydrosphere, and cryosphere. Similarly, other important occurrences, such
as the productivity of the oceans and land surface or the incidence of volcanic eruptions and earth-
quakes, are intricately linked to a variety of interactive phenomena. The global aggregate of interac-
tive linkages among the major systems that affect the environment has become defined as Global
Change.
Role of Scientific Understanding
Many environmental changes have substantial impact on the welfare of humans: advances
and retreats of glaciers, changing lengths of growing seasons, regional land subsidence or uplift, and
extreme climatic events such as protracted droughts. During most of mankind's existence, the
response to such changes was only to learn to cope: building better shelter, altering agricultural
practices, or migrating.
However, advances in the Earth sciences over the last several decades have revealed (i) the
causes of some changes, (ii) the processes whereby they occur, and (iii) their local environmental
consequences. As a result, rather than having to simply endure unsuspected changes as they occur,
people can now anticipate many of them and make decisions and responses that could reduce the
impacts.
Thus, science has sought to develop an increasingly improved predictive understanding of
environmental changes that relate to human welfare. The makers of public policy have sought to use
that understanding as part of the basis for decisions that are aimed at lessening the adverse effects of
those changes. This ability to predict has two types of applications:
natural changes
better choices in accommodating the unavoidable (e.g., the
1982-1983 "El Niño"), and
human-induced changes
better decisions to ameliorate the consequences of the avoidable
(e.g., the 1987 Montreal Protocol related to the protection of the
ozone layer).
In both cases, failing to take prudent action leads to adverse impacts; correspondingly, there
are adverse impacts of taking imprudent action. The ability to assess the trustworthiness of the
prediction is as important as the ability to make the prediction. As a result, a meaningful estimate of
the uncertainty of a prediction is a necessary part of the scientific input to policy decisions.
4
INTRODUCTION
In short, the reliability of a prediction depends on the adequacy of the scientific understand-
ing of the phenomenon addressed, and the utility of a prediction lies in the range of this uncertainty.
Science and Policy
In Transition from Regional to Global Scales. Emphasis in the past understandably has been on
needs that are perceived as the most immediate and most local. These have included weather fore-
casting, urban smog, and acid deposition. However, in recent years, the attention of both scientists
and policymakers has extended to more global-scale, longer term changes, such as persistent conti-
nental-scale droughts, global warming, coastal erosion, and stratospheric ozone depletion. While the
impacts of vital concern remain regional, they are recognized to be embedded in the processes of the
larger phenomena.
This enlarging scope has brought to the fore the interactive nature of the Earth's environ-
mental systems noted above. For the researcher this implies, for example, seeking to understand not
just how climate change can influence regional ecosystems, but also how the Earth's ecosystems
influence climate. For the policymaker it implies, for example, basing decisions regarding limita-
tions on the production of chlorofluorocarbons on their role not just in stratospheric ozone destruc-
tion, but also in the "greenhouse effect" which may require policies on the limitation of the burning
of fossil fuels. Given population growth, increasing industrialization, and the quest for better living
standards, the interactive nature of the environmental systems and the policy issues should come as
no surprise. The Earth is, after all, one planet and, therefore, contains one interactive "Earth sys-
tem."
Decisions of Today. The effects of such global-scale changes on the planet have regional impacts
that cover a broad spectrum of human activities, e.g., agriculture, habitation, energy usage, forestry,
and health care. Equally broad are the associated U.S. economic and policy decisions regarding the
well-being of the citizenry and the economic health of the country. Choices must be made regarding
agricultural policies, modes of energy production, protection or utilization of natural resources,
coastal-zone management, and water-use policies. Reliable information and predictions regarding
global changes are required at many decision levels within society: individuals (e.g., farmers),
industries (e.g., energy and chemical producers), and regulators (e.g., governments).
Many such decisions are immediate, demonstrating that global change and the needed scien-
tific input to prudent policymaking are not abstract concepts to be dealt with at some future time.
The interrelated nature of scientific research and informed decision making is demonstrated by the
following questions being asked by scientists and by policymakers:
Scientists ask:
- Has a "greenhouse" warming already been detected?
- What is the uncertainty in the prediction of the magnitude and timing of global
warming corresponding to trace-gas increases?
- How well are the regional consequences of climate change understood and to what
extent can they be predicted, e.g., was the 1988 midwestern U.S. drought due to the
"greenhouse effect"?
- What are the hemispheric effects of the antarctic ozone "hole"?
5
INTRODUCTION
- To what degree do the ice-surface/chlorine/ozone processes discovered in Antarctica
cause ozone losses in the Arctic (or globally)?
- What are the potential consequences of the loss of biodiversity occurring from elimi-
nation and disruption of habitat due to large-scale conversion of land usage?
- What coastal area problems (e.g., erosion, flooding, and potable water contamina-
tion) accompany changes in sea and lake levels and in runoff patterns?
- What regional changes in rainfall are possible due to likely changes in atmospheric
circulation?
- What are the ecological and health-related consequences of chemical pollution from
industrial processes, agricultural practices, and urban development?
Policymakers ask:
- Should Congressional actions, particularly those with multiple payoffs, be initiated to
reduce the growth rate of "greenhouse" gases in the atmosphere?
-
Is the nature of methane emissions known sufficiently well to devise meaningful
emission-control strategies?
- Do the provisions of the 1987 "Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the
Ozone Layer" need to be strengthened quickly ?
- Should the scope of the Clean Air Act recognize the multiple-issue roles of, for
example, the nitrogen oxides in urban smog, rural oxidants, the "greenhouse effect",
and acid rain?
-
Is it prudent to take international economic actions now to make it profitable for
tropical countries to slow down the rate of deforestation?
- What land- and water-management decisions could be made now to make water
supply systems more robust in the face of possible precipitation pattern changes?
These questions echo in current scientific discussions. They weave through current drafts of
proposed legislation in the Congress and debate in the regulatory agencies. The scientists rightly
seek a defensible understanding of their problems. The policymakers rightly request useful advice
on their problems. The points here are twofold: (1) the always challenging dialogue between sci-
ence and policy is occurring in a new arena global change, and (2) it is occurring now.
Needed: A Predictive Understanding of the Earth System
The preceding sections establish the following progression of points:
Change is the norm for the Earth's natural environmental systems (e.g., the Little Ice
Age and the Sahelian drought).
6
INTRODUCTION
The Earth's environmental systems are linked through a variety of interactive
processes (e.g., the composition of the atmosphere has been determined largely by the
biosphere).
In recent history, mankind has become a new and important agent of change (e.g.,
widespread "acid rain" in the Northern Hemisphere and global increases in atmos-
pheric carbon dioxide).
Changes of both natural and human-induced origin can have enormous impact on
human welfare (e.g., the drastic impact of a single summer's drought on an industrial
power and the loss of agricultural productivity following a progression of elevated
surface ozone episodes).
Science and policymakers both currently face questions that relate to global changes
that are occurring now (e.g., the antarctic ozone "hole" and the debate over the
adequacy of the Montreal Protocol).
Development of a scientific understanding of a phenomenon can provide the basis
for sound policy decisions that mitigate impacts, either observed or predicted (e.g.,
the banning by the United States of chlorofluorocarbons as spray-can propellants in
1978).
The underlying premise of this document, and of the U.S. Global Change Research Program,
is that wise use of the Earth for human habitation and survival is inextricably linked to an improved
understanding of the systems that are undergoing change at varying rates in response to natural and
human-influenced processes. A vigorous, well-coordinated Federal research emphasis will be
critical to improving predictive understanding and will support the formulation of sound policy
decisions. The U.S. Global Change Research Program has been established to provide that vigorous,
coordinated effort, as well as effective arrangements for international cooperation.
The Scope of The U.S. Global Change Research Program
The overall U.S. strategy to address global change issues requires efforts in three areas:
research to understand the Earth's environment; research and development of new technologies to
adapt to, or mitigate, environmental changes; and formulation of national and international policy
response options required for a changing environment. The goal of the U.S. Global Change Re-
search Program is to provide the scientific basis for informed decision making. It is not the role of
the Program to formulate policies regarding global change, nor does its mandate cover the research
required to develop new technologies that might be used to mitigate or adapt to a changing environ-
ment.
The CES recognizes that, while alternate technologies are not a component of the Program,
high priority should be given to this important research. Agencies such as the Environmental Protec-
tion Agency (EPA), Department of Energy (DOE), and U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
must play a leadership role in the important area of research in adaptation and mitigation technolo-
gies. Such research would be complementary to the U.S. Global Change Research Program and to
ongoing studies of response strategy formulation.
7
THE APPROACH
The Program's Approach to Global Change Research
This section describes the strategy by which the U.S. Global Change Research Program was
developed over the past year and by which it will be implemented in coming years.
State a clear goal for the Program.
Assess the achievability of that goal, given the current and potential levels of scientific
knowledge.
Identify the known key scientific questions that must be answered in order to gain a better
predictive understanding of global and regional changes and their impacts.
Establish the scientific objectives of the Program. Ask whether meeting the objectives will
answer the key questions?
Define the best scientific approach to meeting the objectives.
Define the best organizational approach to meeting the objectives. Recognize and address
the challenge of effective inter-institutional, interagency, international, and interdisciplinary
research.
Program Goal
Recognizing that effective and rational response strategies to environmental issues can be
built only on sound scientific information, the overarching goal of the U.S. Global Change Research
Program is:
To gain an adequate predictive understanding of the interactive physical, geological, chemi-
cal, biological and social processes that regulate the total Earth system and, hence establish
the scientific basis for national and international policy formulation and decisions relating to
natural and human-induced changes in the global environment and their regional impacts.
Achievability of the Goal
The Earth system is a complex interplay of a variety of processes that operate on a broad
spectrum of spatial and temporal scales. Hence, achievement of the Program's goal is as ambitious
as it is imperative. Belief that the goal can be met is founded and premised on three conceptual,
methodological, and institutional advances that have occurred relatively recently:
The sciences essential to an understanding of global phenomena have matured dramatically
in the last few decades and are now positioned to address many of the questions that must be
answered to truly understand and predict global change.
For example, atmospheric scientists, biologists, hydrologists, and oceanographers are
addressing the interactions between the atmosphere and the terrestrial and marine environ-
8
THE APPROACH
ments to examine the linkages between these systems. Focused studies of observations and
diagnostic theory of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system in the equatorial Pacific are
gaining a predictive capability for this major component of the global climate system. Use-
fully complete pictures are emerging for some of the processes whereby human activities are
influencing substantial parts of the global system (e.g., manmade chlorofluorocarbons and
stratospheric ozone).
Many of the methodologies and research tools needed to address the global scales of change
now exist, are proven, and can be fully exploited in the 1990's.
For example, Earth-observing satellites now clearly have the potential not only to
provide the needed global view of change that is occurring (e.g., vegetation alteration), but
also to identify many of the processes involved. Supercomputers are available to run the
global-scale models that are now being developed and for establishing effective systems for
managing global data sets. Sediment core, ice core and tree-ring techniques "read" the text
of Earth system history. Advanced analytical instrumentation is providing the means for
measuring many of the reactive trace components of the atmosphere, soils, lakes, and oceans
that are the protagonists in the drama of global change. Airborne (e.g., stratospheric re-
search aircraft) and global surface-based (e.g., the Amundsen-Scott Station at the South Pole)
facilities are available for observing the details of change on expanded spatial scales.
The national and international infrastructures and commitments to a global change agenda
are being forged.
For example, Federal agencies, collaborating with the academic community, have
begun in the last few years to describe a cohesive approach to understanding global change
and its regional impacts. By Presidential directive, a study was initiated in 1984 by the
Office of Science and Technology Policy to "review and define the goals and missions of the
various agencies in the area of Earth Sciences research." The resulting report, "Earth Sci-
ences Research in the Civil Space Program," October 1985, recommended, among other
things, a standing National Academy of Sciences committee on the global change research
issues and the establishment of the FCCSET Committee on Earth Sciences. The report of the
Earth Systems Sciences Advisory Committee, Earth System Science: A Closer View
(NASA 1988), focused attention on the study of the Earth as a single, integrated system and
greatly increased the public awareness of the problems and challenges. In addition, these
issues were the subject of two National Academy of Sciences reports: Global Change in the
Geosphere Biosphere: Initial Priorities for an IGBP (1986), and Toward an Understanding
of Global Change: Initial Priorities for U.S. Contributions to the International Geosphere-
Biosphere Program (1988).
In recognition of the need for an effort broader than the climate-change focus of the
National Climate Program, the Committee on Earth Sciences was formed to focus and coor-
dinate existing and proposed Federal global change science and related activities.
On the international level, the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU) has
organized the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) to focus on understand-
ing the biogeochemical elements of the global system. The IGBP complements the ongoing
9
THE APPROACH
World Climate Research Program (WCRP), other elements of the World Climate Program
(WCP) of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and programs of the United
Nations Environment Program (UNEP) and other international organizations.
Key Scientific Questions
A better predictive understanding of the Earth system requires improved answers to numer-
ous questions. Not many complete answers are available at present, but the types of questions, even
if currently unanswered, give insight to the structure and nature of the research that is required to
provide more and better answers. These questions fall into three major classes: (1) What global
change has occurred in the past and is occurring now? (2) What physical, geological, chemical,
biological, and social processes are involved in global change? (3) How well can global change be
predicted?
What Global Changes Have Occurred in the Past and Are Occurring Now?
The past is a prologue to the present and the future. Namely, the Earth contains records of
the changes that have occurred naturally in the global system in the past and that presumably will
continue to occur in the future. Therefore, a reading of Earth system history is a global change
tutorial that provides: (i) a baseline against which Earth system hypotheses and theories may be
tested; (ii) examples of what the natural system may have in store for the future; (iii) the backdrop
against which human impact on the system can be identified; (iv) the context in which the magni-
tudes of predicted future human impact can be assessed; and (v) a lengthy data set that can be used
to test the ability of current models to first explain, then predict, changes over long time scales.
Questions whose answers are sought in the Earth system history book fall into two categories, based
on the source of the answers.
Proxy Record. Questions regarding how the state of the global system has changed over very long
time spans must rely for answers on proxy data or indirect evidence: tree rings, sediments, fossils,
ice cores, etc. Proxy data provide information about the Earth's climate, oceans, biota, atmosphere,
rivers, aquifers, lakes, and land surface up to the present. The information that documents the rapid
and slow global changes that occurred leading up to and following the extremes of this glacial epoch
is a treasure trove of insight into the interactive processes of the lithosphere, biosphere, and hydro-
sphere. Answers to the following categories of questions are sought in proxy data:
Oceanic extent, circulation, and composition. What does the sedimentary and fossil record
reveal about changes in the existence and extent of deep water masses, sea-surface tempera-
tures, and sea-surface currents (and hence wind circulation and rainfall distribution patterns)?
Terrestrial geosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere. What biological, physical, and chemical
responses of the Earth's surface to global changes are found in the terrestrial records (pollen
records; tree rings, soil composition and distribution; fossils; landforms; terrestrial and lake
sediments)? What tectonic geological processes (including isostatic rebound, earthquakes,
regional subsidence, volcanic eruption, and uplift) and surficial geological processes (includ-
ing weathering, soil development, and sedimentation) have contributed to global change or
contain a record of global change?
10
THE APPROACH
Atmospheric composition. What prehistoric changes in atmospheric composition are indi-
cated in air trapped in ice cores and seafloor aeolian sediment distribution patterns? What
are the temporal relations (i.e., lead or lag) between these atmospheric composition changes
and other indicators of global change (e.g., temperature) that might be used to distinguish
between cause and effect?
Climate. What do the records contained in tree-rings; ice cores; lake, terrestrial, and marine
sediment cores; and geomorphic features reveal about the extent, duration, and nature of past
climatic, hydrologic, and oceanographic conditions?
Direct Measurement. Within the past hundred to two hundred years, modern instruments and
observing methods have afforded the opportunity for limited time series of directly measured global
change indicators: temperature; rainfall patterns; streamflow and lake and groundwater levels;
winds; ecosystem variability; soil chemistry and moisture; changes in oceanic tides, sea level, and
currents; variation in solar irradiance; and increasing concentrations of trace gases in the atmosphere.
While most of these records are relatively short, the accuracy, precision, and richness of detail reveal
subtle, but important, changes on time scales of decades to centuries. Questions that direct measure-
ment can address include:
Temperature. What global and regional temperature changes have occurred over the past
century? What uncertainties do the urban "heat-island" effect and marine "bucket" sampling
procedures introduce into regional and global temperature trends?
Land cover. How have land use and land cover changed over the past one to two centuries
(specifically the extent of forests, wetlands, and managed ecosystems)?
Precipitation and water flow. What shifts have taken place in precipitation patterns? What
do historical records of the flows of major rivers and the levels of major lakes reveal about
the hydrological cycle over the past centuries?
Sea level. What is the global pattern of sea level variation and what recent changes have
occurred? Can the effects of isostatic and tectonic motions and of thermal expansion of
oceans be separated?
Wind patterns. What is the climatology of wind patterns, particularly surface winds over the
ocean, which drive ocean currents and contribute to poleward heat transport, and how are
they linked to evaporation/precipitation patterns?
Solar irradiance. What are the variations in solar output over various time scales?
Anthropogenic emissions. What changes have there been in the human release of key chemi-
cals like carbon dioxide, methane, carbon monoxide, oxides of sulfur and nitrogen, and phos-
phorus compounds into the rapidly circulating parts of the Earth system?
Atmospheric composition. How has the chemical composition of the atmosphere changed in
recent times?
11
THE APPROACH
What Physical, Geological, Chemical, Biological, and Social Processes Are Involved in Influ-
encing Global Change and Its Environmental Impacts?
The components of the global system are linked by an amazing diversity of physical and
biogeochemical processes, or "forcing agents," that introduce change into the system and transmit
change through the system. Most of these are natural processes. But humans also are agents in
forcing change (e.g., deforestation and production of "greenhouse" gases). Numerous questions
focus on the processes that tie the system (including humans) together. The current paucity of
answers is the key limitation in the ability to construct a working model of this global system (for
which no instruction manual was supplied).
Global Change Forcing Agents. The global system responds in major ways to (i) changes in solar
irradiance, which alters the energy received by the Earth; (ii) changes in atmospheric concentrations
of radiatively important trace gases, which determine the "greenhouse effect"; (iii) changes in the
aerosol content of the atmosphere, which also affect the radiation balance; and (iv) alterations in land
use/cover, which influence biological productivity and diversity and interactions between the surface
and the atmosphere. Except for solar irradiance, these forcing agents can have both natural and
human-influenced components. On longer time scales, volcanic eruptions, tectonic activity, and
changes in the Earth's orbital characteristics play an an important role in changing the Earth's
environment.
The most pressing questions associated with these agents are:
Solar influences. What are the short- and long-term changes in the portion of incident
solar radiation that influences the energy received, circulated, and stored within the Earth
system?
"Greenhouse" gases. What is the range of possible or most probable future atmospheric
concentrations of the radiatively important trace gases? How do natural and human-
influenced processes contribute to these trends?
Aerosols. What are the clear-air and cloud-related climate forcings that arise from
changes in the concentrations of aerosols in the atmosphere? What are the potential
contributions to climate-altering aerosols from natural sources and human-influenced
sources?
Land use. What types of land-use changes can alter biological productivity and diversity
and regional and global climate, and what are possible or likely relevant patterns of future
land uses?
Human Dimensions. How will changes in population and human activities impact the
global environment?
Global System Interactions. The planetary system is composed of a variety of interactive parts:
atmosphere (gases, aerosols, and clouds), oceans (physical, chemical, and biological constituents),
solid Earth and land surface (rocks, soils, water, and biotic components including humans), and
radiation from and back to space. The system, since it is made up of so many parts that fluctuate on
different time periods, has natural variations that can be of large magnitudes. Any change in forcing,
either natural or human-induced, causes processes involving these interactive parts to respond, and
12
THE APPROACH
the global system tends to move toward a new "quasi-equilibrium" state. One of the keys to being
able to predict what new state is reached for a particular forcing and its impacts on human activities
is an adequate understanding of the processes by which the system responds. Given below are the
currently identified major questions that surround global system interactions.
Water-radiation interactions. What land-surface (evaporation, transpiration, rivers, drainage
basins, geologic and soil properties, industry, and irrigated agriculture) and atmospheric
(winds and precipitation) factors and processes control the atmospheric concentration and
distribution of water vapor? As "greenhouse" forcing alters the radiative balance, what
changes in evaporation and precipitation will occur, particularly on regional scales? Because
of the major "greenhouse" role of water vapor, how will regional changes in evaporation and
precipitation in turn influence the radiative balance of the atmosphere?
Snowlice-radiation interactions. What are the mechanisms whereby the spatial and temporal
distribution of snow and ice (both land and sea), hence surface reflectivity and conductive
barriers, respond to mean global temperatures changes? How will a change in snow/ice
cover alter the radiative balance of the atmosphere?
Cloud-radiation interactions. What natural or human-influenced processes control the
distribution and nature of clouds, whose radiative properties influence reflected incoming
solar radiation and trap outgoing terrestrial radiation? How will these distributions and
properties respond to global and regional changes, such as increased evaporation?
Atmospheric composition-radiation interactions. As the trace gas composition of the tropo-
sphere changes, how will the chemical, physical, and radiative processes that control the
chemical composition of the stratosphere respond (e.g., concentration and distribution of
ozone)? How will these changes impact the atmospheric radiation balance and circulation
patterns?
Large-scale air-surface interactions. How will atmospheric motions and precipitation pat-
terns respond to a change in surface temperatures, and, in turn, how will these atmospheric
motions (e.g., wind stress) affect the properties (e.g., circulation, salinity, and thermal struc-
ture) of the ocean's mixed layer and deep water formation?
Ocean circulation-heat transport interactions. How do oceanic circulation processes influ-
ence the net flux of heat at the ocean-atmosphere interface (hence influencing the thermal
inertia of the planet) and poleward heat transport? How will these processes change with
"greenhouse" forcing?
Ocean-trace species interactions. What processes influence the uptake, storage capacity, and
release of CO2 and nutrients. In turn, how will ocean circulation and temperature changes
influence these processes? How will changes in temperature influence the release of meth-
ane from marine hydrates?
Ocean biota-climate interactions. What are the processes that affect marine biological and
ecosystem dynamics? How, in turn, will such changes affect the global budgets of CO2 and
other climatically or biologically important constituents?
13
THE APPROACH
Biota-hydrologylenergy interactions. What are the processes that control the changes and
rates of change in the productivity, areal extent, and diversity of managed and natural terres-
trial ecosystems resulting from regional changes in temperature, precipitation, toxification,
and soil loss? How do regional and global changes in the biosphere alter the exchange of
energy and water between the atmosphere and terrestrial surfaces?
Biota-atmospheric composition interactions. What are the fundamental effects/interactions
of trace gases (e.g., carbon dioxide, methane, and ozone) with biota? What are the mecha-
nisms whereby changes in terrestrial ecosystems (e.g., carbon storage and nutrient cycling)
affect the fluxes of chemically and radiatively important trace gases to and from the atmos-
phere? How will these ecosystems, and hence their trace gas fluxes, be affected by changes
in climate?
Land-coastal ecosystem interactions. What are the impacts of changes in the flow of nutri-
ents and sediments from major landscapes to coastal ecosystems? How will changes in sea
level impact coastal ecosystems and fresh water aquifers?
Ocean-seafloor interactions. What are the magnitudes of the fluxes of heat and volatiles
from the sea floor to the oceans, and to what extent do these influence ocean circulation and
chemistry?
How Well Can Global Change and Its Impacts Be Predicted?
Changes in global environments over geologic time are clearly indicated in the Earth's record
book. These records can be integrated to construct empirical models of past global change. Quanti-
tative assessments of the progression of past, present, and future global states resulting from the
actions of climate-forcing agents require the development of a hierarchy of multidimensional models
to describe or parameterize the climate response processes noted above. An indication of the valid-
ity of such models is their ability to represent the past paleoclimate record and the observations of
the contemporary, directly observed global features. With respect to the ability to furnish reliable
predictions of future states of the global system due to natural variation or specified human perturba-
tions, the issue is one of confidence level. Some examples of key questions to be asked include:
Model Simulation of the Past. This includes the following two questions:
Physical climate. To what extent can the climatic changes that occurred between the glacial
and interglacial episodes be attributed to subtle changes in the Earth's orbit? Are these
changes in orbital geometry sufficient to cause glaciation, or do other mechanisms exist?
Ecosystems dynamics. How well can models simulate ecosystem response (ecosystem extent
and productivity, rate of migration, type) to past changes in climate?
Model Simulation of the Present. Modeling of the present must consider physical climate and
biological responses, as follows:
Physical climate. How well do the models represent the observed temporal variations (e.g.,
seasonal cycles; biennial oscillations; and longer-term trends in temperature, streamflow and
14
THE APPROACH
lake levels, and wind patterns) and spatial distributions (e.g., regional rainfall patterns) for a
number of key parameters, especially on regional scales? In particular, can the causes of the
step-like global temperature increases observed in the 1920's and the 1980's be explained?
Has the expected 3/4-degree Celsius "greenhouse" warming signal been seen, i.e., have
observations confirmed the predicted changes? If not, why not? Such a temperature increase
is consistent with past increases in CO2 as per our understanding of the "greenhouse effect."
It was, however, not predicted in the usual sense. What do the strengths and shortcomings of
the simulation imply about the predictive ability of the model?
Biological responses. Can estimates of biological response be scaled so that the limited
amount of experimental information about individual organisms, communities, and ecosys-
tems be extended to the analysis of biotic change for regions and the entire globe? What are
the spatial and temporal dynamics of ecosystem processes that are useful for large-scale
model generalizations? How well can models based on limited flux measurements simulate
the relationship between biological productivity and decomposition and the fluxes of trace
gases?
Model Prediction of the Future. Use of models to predict the future generate questions about
confidence levels and reliability:
Global environment. What is the confidence level in the prediction of an eventual global
warming as a result of increasing "greenhouse" gases? Similarly, what is the confidence in
the prediction of the timing of such a warming? What are the most confident features of the
predicted "signature" of a warming that could serve as the best guide for establishing a new
early-warning monitoring system, as well as guidance for "first-step" policy-option consid-
erations?
Regional environment. Is it conceivable that, within the next several years, models will be
able to make reliable predictions of regional changes, e.g., of soil moisture? Of sea level
rise?
Ecosystem responses. Even when regional environmental changes can be predicted reliably,
will the ecosystem (natural and managed) models be developed to a corresponding extent
such that reliable "end-to-end" forcing/response calculations can be made? How far is the
scientific community from that achievement? What could accelerate the development of the
ability to make such Earth system/regional change predictions?
Anthropogenic emissions forecasting. How well do models that incorporate population
growth and demography, technological developments, and economic growth predict human
induced emissions of trace gases? Specifically, how can limited measurements of anthropo-
genic sources be used to estimate global emissions of important trace gases?
15
THE APPROACH
Implementation Strategy: Scientific Objectives
From the three major scientific questions posed in the previous section, the U.S. Global
Change Research Program has formulated three scientific objectives:
Establish an Integrated, Comprehensive Long-Term Program of Documenting the Earth
System on a Global Scale
Observational Programs. There is no substitute for actual observations of global change. Accu-
rate time series records have at least three major functions in a global change research program. (i)
They warn of changes (natural or human-induced) that have direct environmental impact on human
activities, such as sea- or lake-level changes. (ii) The perspective afforded by time series records
reveals changes that signal the existence of previously unexpected phenomena, such as the discovery
of the antarctic ozone "hole," whose examination revealed new ozone-related atmospheric processes.
(iii) Temporal changes in many spatially distributed global change indicators, such as biological
diversity, ecosystem extent, temperature, rainfall, land and sea-ice cover, streamflow, and wind
patterns, provide observational tests of the ability of models to explain the global system, which is an
important measure of their ability to reliably predict future responses to perturbations.
While there are several existing time series of important global change indicators, most
record lengths are relatively short (e.g., solar irradiance) or the data quality is somewhat equivocal
(e.g., urban temperatures). Furthermore, the long-term stability of the onboard calibration of satellite
sensors, which are crucial to global observations, has proven to be a more difficult problem than
originally thought.
Nevertheless, it is important to note that the technical capability currently exists to monitor
far more of the important global change indicators than is currently being done. Sensitive in situ
detectors are available, many of which can be operated in a reliable fashion at remote global land or
oceanic sites. Satellite and ground-based remote-sensing networks jointly are capable of monitoring
changes in vertical structure of the atmosphere. There are, however, many important parameters
which we can't yet measure from space, e.g., cloud base height and surface soil moisture. Long-
term ecosystem research stations have demonstrated the feasibility of obtaining a large number of
sustained time series of ecological data. In general, the key ingredients for high-quality, sustained
monitoring are (i) credible assessments of the measurement accuracies, (ii) the early involvement of
theory in designing a monitoring strategy and a continued involvement in the interpretation of the
data, and (iii) enduring professional and institutional commitments to these endeavors. An exten-
sive, high quality observational program to provide the long-term records of the global change
indicators for use in documenting changes in the Earth system, for use in process studies, and for use
in the development and testing of conceptual models should be the central element of the U.S.
Global Change Research Program.
Data Management Systems. Success with the U.S. Global Change Research Program will depend
upon both the acquisition of high quality data that defines the global system over space and time and
the data management services that will make the observational information accessible to the global
change scientific research community in the most useful manner possible. At the center of a long-
term research program for the study of global change must be the development of a comprehensive
managed information system. This system must include the means and mechanisms to gather,
transmit, validate, process, analyze, archive, model, and disseminate the disciplinary and interdisci-
plinary data needed to understand and simulate the scientific interactions of Earth processes on a
global scale.
16
THE APPROACH
Conduct a Program of Focused Studies to Improve Our Understanding of the Physical, Geo-
logical, Chemical, Biological, and Social Processes That Influence Earth System Processes and
Trends on Global and Regional Scales
The global system has numerous couplings - natural, human-influenced, and human-
influencing - among its subsystems. Many of the linkages respond to change, either amplifying
or attenuating the effects of forcing agents or natural fluctuations via positive or negative feedbacks.
Such feedbacks can be nonlinear, responding minimally to forcings of the system until a critical
magnitude is reached and then operating in a dramatically different mode. Furthermore, numerous
processes link the land, biosphere, atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere, e.g., wind stress and surface-
to-air evaporation, deep-ocean circulation and the oceanic uptake of atmospheric CO2, and terrestrial
and oceanic biospheric emissions and the atmospheric abundance of trace gases. These processes
are the building blocks that must be understood to construct a model of the global system that has the
ability to explain the current behavior of the system and hence furnish credible predictions of its
future natural and/or perturbed states.
The last few decades have seen some progress in defining such couplings. The radiative
physics of the trace gases is considered well understood. General circulation models reproduce
many observed seasonal global features, although not in a predictively useful way. Substantial
predictive capabilities are being demonstrated for subcomponents of the global system (e.g., strato-
spheric chemistry), and others appear within striking distance (e.g., the El Niño - Southern Oscilla-
tion phenomena and their global connections). Unfortunately, in general, models are far more
successful on global scales than they are on regional scales.
It is clear that a key challenge of the Global Change Research Program will be to perfect
disciplinary and interdisciplinary tools and carry out the process-oriented studies that reveal how the
coupled system works.
Develop Integrated Conceptual and Predictive Earth System Models
Expanding knowledge of Earth system behavior is permitting the development of improved
concepts and computer-based models, with the ultimate objective of developing predictions of global
change and the impacts on human welfare on both global and regional scales. Predictive capability
is progressing for many global processes, e.g., linkages between tropical oceanic behavior and global
atmospheric circulation and the response of ecosystems to environmental changes, such as the
response of forest growth and succession to changes in regional climate and the responses of plants
to elevated levels of atmospheric CO2.
While scientific understanding is increasing and gives rise to confidence that the science is
tractable (e.g., an element of predictability for El Niño), there remains much to do if truly integrated
models of the Earth system are to be developed. The major modeling uncertainties arise from both
inadequate availability of computing capability and insufficient scientific understanding of coupled
biological, geological, and chemical processes. The most significant human impacts from global
change are expected to be regional in scope, but current climate models cannot forecast accurately at
regional scales, nor can they reveal the causes of natural variability. Even with enhanced computing
capability, the behavior of the land surface, including soil moisture and run-off, plant cover, clouds,
and other factors, cannot yet be reliably built into models because of insufficient fundamental
knowledge of the characteristics and processes.
17
THE APPROACH
Therefore, this research will include the development, evaluation, and improvement of
theoretical and numerical models to provide better representations of individual components of the
Earth system (e.g., human activities, atmospheric chemistry, atmospheric and oceanic circulation,
and gas and energy exchange between the atmosphere and the land and ocean surfaces). Ultimately,
the long-term thrust is the integration of those individual representations into comprehensive, inter-
active models of the whole Earth system, with applications to regional to global scales.
Scientific Approach
The U.S. Global Change Research Program recognizes the need to achieve a greater level of
integration among scientific disciplines, but, at the same time, to preserve the strength that comes
with the individuality of the single discipline and, indeed, the creativity of the individual investiga-
tor. The approach to achieving this is described below.
The Levels of Disciplinary Integration
Most scientific research has been conducted by individuals and supporting contingents and
has concerned small, yet significant, questions that are resolvable with such a level of effort. How-
ever, the principal problems of the environment, particularly those involving a global scale, are so
large and so complex that no single activity can deal with them effectively. Therefore, the problems
of global change require interdisciplinary research on a scale not attempted heretofore. Indeed, a
number of interdisciplinary programs have already been initiated, and several such programs have
already demonstrated success in providing important scientific advances in understanding broad
aspects of the Earth system. Through these pioneering interdisciplinary studies, the need for an even
broader, more integrated view of the global Earth system has been recognized.
The U.S. Global Change Research Program is the national effort to meet the need for such an
integrated view. It must, however, maintain and strengthen the foundation of the single-discipline
and interdisciplinary sciences, which are the essential building blocks of an integrated understanding
of the total Earth system.
The Global Change Research Program will integrate the three levels of scientific discipline
activities.
The Single-Discipline Level. This basic level of activity comprises single-investigator and
large-scale programs of theoretical and process-oriented studies, long-term observations, and
information systems in traditional scientific disciplines such as oceanography, glaciology,
atmospheric chemistry, meteorology, hydrology, agronomy, biology, geography, economics,
and sociology. It is here that the basic biological, social, physical, geological, and chemical
processes are addressed and fundamental discoveries about them are often made. One
example is the theoretical understanding that the antarctic ozone "hole" could arise from ice-
surface chlorine chemistry, which was subsequently supported by field measurements.
The Interdisciplinary Level. It is at this level that knowledge of global subsystems is devel-
oped and tested. Such interdisciplinary research activities combine small groups of tradi-
tional disciplines in joint activities of monitoring, process studies, diagnostics, modeling,
scientific assessments, and data management. Examples include studies of atmospheric-
biospheric exchange processes, coupled oceanic-atmospheric dynamics, and land-surface/
atmosphere interactions.
18
THE APPROACH
The Integrated Level. It is here that conceptual and predictive models for the whole Earth
system are conceived and developed, diagnostically tested against the results from Earth
system laboratory and field investigations, and employed to make global change predictions.
Achieving this fully integrated level of long-term observations, process studies, and predic-
tions relating to the Earth system is the overarching aim of the U.S. Global Change Research
Program.
The appropriate balance of these levels of disciplinary research will be maintained in the
following way:
Create an integration of global change activities at all disciplinary levels to develop the
needed unified concepts and predictive models;
Make use of these integrated models to guide interdisciplinary studies of global subsystems
and single-discipline studies of globally important processes;
Guide the use of the results of such interdisciplinary and single-discipline studies to improve
global models; and
Support long-term observations, process oriented studies, and predictive modeling, including
data management and infrastructure development at all three levels.
The iterative improvements implied by the second and third steps are essential for progress.
In the past, interdisciplinary programs have been more affected by discoveries and perceived needs
at the single-discipline level than vice-versa. Interdisciplinary activities are now beginning to have a
greater influence on single-discipline work. For example, scientists modeling climate have found
that current characterization of land is inadequate for the modeling needs and have called upon
hydrologists and botanists to provide better descriptions of heat and water transfer. This example
highlights the importance of continuing support at all three levels and fostering the flow of influence
and information among the three disciplinary levels.
The Current Status of Disciplinary Integration
Numerous single-discipline Earth science endeavors currently exist. In addition, several
interdisciplinary endeavors are in place and emerging. This Research Plan focuses on the latter set
as the best indicators of where the Global Change Research Program currently stands in its long-
term goal of functioning simultaneously on the single-discipline, interdisciplinary, and integrated
levels.
The interdisciplinary stage is the context for the scientific structure of the present plan.
Specifically, there are seven interdisciplinary science elements that embody the current and immedi-
ate-term features of the Program. These seven interdisciplinary elements are given below, along
with a brief description of the role of each in the Program:
Climate and Hydrologic Systems. The examination of the physical processes that govern
physical climate and the hydrologic cycle, including interactions between the atmosphere,
hydrosphere (i.e., oceans, surface and ground water, clouds, etc.), cryosphere, land surface,
and biosphere.
19
THE APPROACH
Biogeochemical Dynamics. The study of the sources, sinks, fluxes, trends, and interactions
involving the mobile biogeochemical constituents within the Earth system, including human
activities, with a focus on carbon, nitrogen, sulfur, oxygen, phosphorus, and the halogens.
Ecological Systems and Dynamics. The investigation of the responses of ecological systems,
both marine and terrestrial, to changes in global and regional environmental conditions and
of the influence of biological communities on the atmospheric, terrestrial, oceanic, and
climatic systems.
Earth System History. The uncovering and interpretation of the natural records of past
environmental change that are contained in terrestrial and marine sediments, soils, glaciers
and permafrost, tree rings, rocks, geomorphic features, and other direct or proxy documenta-
tion of past global conditions.
Human Interactions. The study of (i) the social factors that influence the global environ-
ment, including population growth, industrialization: agricultural practices, and other land
usages, and (ii) the human activities that are impacted by regional aspects of global change.
Solid Earth Processes. The study of geological processes (e.g., volcanic eruptions and
erosion) that affect the global environment, especially those processes that take place at the
interfaces between the Earth's surface and the atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, and
biosphere.
Solar Influences. The investigation of how changes in the near-space and the upper at-
mospherethat are induced by variability in solar output influence the Earth's environment.
Scientific Assessments
Associated with this improving conceptual picture will be regular, integrated assessments of
the current scientific understanding of global change. These assessments will provide the scientific
agencies and community with a clearer view of future research priorities. The accompanying predic-
tions (including uncertainties) of global change that are based on that current understanding will
provide decision makers with an updated scientific basis for national and international policy consid-
erations. Indeed, such periodic assessments will be the primary output of the Program with regard to
aiding policy decisions.
Coordination Mechanisms
The complex scientific agenda and the infrastructure needed to address the programs outlined
in this Plan require a careful assessment of existing national and international governmental and
nongovernmental science coordinating and facilitating mechanisms and, where necessary, the crea-
tion of new ones. Plans are already "in-hand" for some of the science components of an internation-
ally supported global change research effort. Some of these have evolved from the activities of
existing science planning mechanisms both in the United States and abroad. These initial elements,
some of which are already in the early phases of field programs, have been derived from the work of
global scientific programs such as the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) and bodies of the
International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU), such as the Scientific Committee on Oceanic
20
THE APPROACH
Research (SCOR). Thus, there are elements of an existing structure to build upon and some ex-
amples of success stories to serve as role models.
The planning for and implementation of a broad and comprehensive global change research
program will require collaboration and program coordination among many institutions and bodies,
which can be broadly identified within three communities that are involved with the science of
global change:
National and international scientific community. Including both structured (NAS, ICSU) and
informal mechanisms (scientist to scientist) for planning science activities.
Government agencies. Including individual agencies of governments (U.S. and foreign) that
support and conduct global change scientific research and the coordinating bodies for these
agencies within governments (e.g., the Committee on Earth Sciences [CES]).
Intergovernmental science bodies. Including multi-national bodies such as the World Mete-
orological Organization (WMO); the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural
Organization (UNESCO); and the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP).
National and International Scientific Community
The international scientific community has evolved a variety of informal mechanisms for
planning science programs. These need to be recognized in the total planning effort. Some pro-
grams of research are conceived via informal mechanisms and then become parts of more formal
mechanisms. Furthermore, informal mechanisms are often used to "scope out" the detailed scientific
elements of a program via workshops and other such ad hoc planning mechanisms. Ultimately, it is
the scientific community that executes the research, both at the single-investigator level and as
components of larger efforts, and hence their planning efforts are vital at virtually all levels. Ex-
amples are the World Ocean Circulation Experiment, the Joint Global Ocean Flux Study, the Inter-
national Satellite Land Surface Climatology Program, and the International Global Atmospheric
Chemistry program, whose roots began within the scientific community.
A perspective for the biogeochemical element of a global change research effort was devel-
oped by a special committee of the National Academy of Sciences, which published a seminal
document entitled Global Change in the Geosphere-Biosphere: Initial Priorities for an IGBP
(1986). This influenced, in turn, the establishment of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Pro-
gram (IGBP) in the fall of 1986 by ICSU. The National Academies of Science (NAS) and ICSU are
central elements of the total planning process for an international Global Change Research Program,
core foci of which are the IGBP, other ICSU global programs, and the nongovernmental organiza-
tions' facilitation of the components of the WCRP. At the national level, the NAS Committee on
Global Change and the other relevant boards and committees (e.g., Ocean Science Board) will be the
foci for coordination.
The work of the NAS Committee on Global Change has been instrumental in facilitating the
U.S. contribution to the ICSU/IGBP and the development of initial priorities for both the science
elements of the U.S. Global Change Research Program and the IGBP. The Committee's high prior-
ity recommendations for new scientific research programs in global change are documented in its
report Toward an Understanding of Global Change: Initial Priorities for U.S. Contributions to the
21
THE APPROACH
International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (1988). This Committee will be a key interface be-
tween the CES and the National Academy of Sciences and all of the U.S. Earth sciences scientific
community.
At the international level, ICSU will be the key coordinating organization, primarily through
its Special Committee for the IGBP. ICSU has already prepared initial documents to guide the
development of the IGBP. These include Report No. 4, The International Geosphere-Biosphere
Programme: A Study of Global Change — A Plan for Action (1988), and the forthcoming report on
the first meeting of its Scientific Advisory Council. While the ICSU/IGBP Special Committee is the
major focus for integrating the international aspects of a Global Change Research Program, other
bodies within ICSU will be actively participating in the scientific planning.
Government Agencies
The U.S. Government, working closely with and through the academic science community
and the private sector, began a few years ago to examine the need for and the approach to a coherent
study of global change and the development of a better predictive understanding. Several scientific
program threads have been woven together to develop what is now the U.S. Global Change Research
Program. The National Climate Program was established in 1978 to provide an interagency forum
for climate research. In 1983 the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) estab-
lished the Earth Systems Sciences Committee (ESSC) to recommend a program and implementation
strategy for global Earth system studies. This committee's recommendations focused primarily on
NASA, the National Science Foundation (NSF), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admini-
stration (NOAA). About the same time, both NSF and NOAA initiated planning and coordination
efforts for global change research programs; in 1986 NSF established its Global Geosciences Re-
search initiative, and NOAA began its Climate and Global Change initiative.
Out of these and similar efforts evolved the Committee on Earth Sciences (CES), a compo-
nent of the Federal Coordinating Council for Science, Engineering, and Technology (FCCSET)
within the White House. FCCSET is chaired by the President's Science Advisor. The CES is the
coordinating mechanism for a broadly scoped U.S. Global Change Research Program; the Program's
science plan is detailed in this document. Planning within the CES resulted in a major U.S. global
change research initiative. The strategy and FY 1990 budget proposals for this initiative are outlined
briefly in the document Our Changing Planet: A U.S. Strategy for Global Change Research,
submitted to the U.S. Congress with the President's FY 1990 Budget in January 1989.
Internationally, similar government agency planning efforts are evolving to support a global
change research program. An example is the recent report to the Advisory Council on Science and
Technology by the Natural Environmental Research Council in the United Kingdom, entitled Our
Future World-Global Environmental Research (March, 1989). As in the United States, however,
foreign governments need to coordinate agency-level budgets and programs toward integrated global
change research both at national levels and in support of international efforts. Some sort of ad hoc
intergovernmental mechanism may be needed to help bring this about.
Intergovernmental Science Bodies
Three intergovernmental science bodies are essential to the implementation of an interna-
tional program of global change research: the World Meteorological Organization (WMO); the
United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) and its subsidiary
22
THE APPROACH
bodies, such as the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission; and the United Nations Environ-
ment Program (UNEP). Other intergovernmental bodies, such as the Intergovernmental Maritime
Organization (IMO), may be required to facilitate the implementation of an international global
change research program such as that proposed under the IGBP.
A key component of the international global change research effort is the World Climate
Research Program (WCRP) and its specialized global programs like the World Ocean Circulation
Experiment (WOCE), the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program, and the upcoming
Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX). These programs are central components to
the U.S. Global Change Research Program and complementary to the IGBP. The Global Environ-
mental Monitoring System (GEMS), the Global Resource Information Data base (GRID), and other
UNEP programs are important additions to the global change research effort and must be linked
carefully into the total research program. The Man and the Biosphere (MAB) program and other
UNESCO programs similarly will be contributing elements for a global research effort. In addition
to multilateral arrangements, there are several important bilateral agreements between governments,
e.g., the Environmental and Space Agreements between the United States and the Soviet Union, that
can facilitate international research activities critical to the Global Change Research Program.
The Overall Organizational Challenge
While the formal programs of the intergovernmental bodies are vital to an international
global change research effort, they also will facilitate implementation of the research programs of
individual nations. Thus, the mechanisms by which research is planned and coordinated between the
international and national arenas also will have to be strengthened. The WCRP has evolved to a
point where many of the national and international arrangements have already been established. It
provides an example of some of the arrangements that have been created to facilitate a complex
research program that is replete with many elements and organizational details. A simplified view is
depicted in Figure 1.
An international research program to study global change will require a careful blending of
national and international resources and infrastructures. The challenge ahead is to build carefully on
established mechanisms and to create only those new ones absolutely essential to the implementation
of the total program. A graphical representation of some of the organizational arrangements that
exist and might need to be established for international global change research is depicted in Figure
2. Question marks in this figure indicate where new or strengthened organizational arrangements are
required. Building on these national and international efforts, the CES will continue to develop and
emphasize a management structure that involves explicitly both national and international partner-
ships between scientific and governmental organizations. These are essential to a scientifically
sound U.S. Global Change Research Program and to one that serves the U.S. interests to the fullest.
23
THE APPROACH
World Climate Research Program - A Simplified View
Scientific Non-Governmental
Intergovernmental Science
Organizations (NGO's)
Organizations (IGO's)
International Council of
WMO
Scientific Unions (ICSU)
IOC
UNEP
Coordinating/Facilitating Organizations
Governments & Agencies
Joint Scientific Committee
Gov't Agencies (NOAA, NSF, etc.)
and
Foreign Gov't Agencies (UK, etc.)
Committee on Climatic Changes and the Oceans
Steering Groups
Nat'l Committees
Scientific
WOCE
Steering
TOGA
Group
International Science Community
Informal Planning Mechanisms-Seminars, Journals, etc.
Organized Planning Mechanisms-Workshops Conferences, etc.
Figure 1. World Climate Research Program: Organizational Structure. The types of components
and their interrelations provide an example of an international/national research program.
24
THE APPROACH
U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM
An International Perspective
Scientific Non-Governmental
Intergovernmental Science
Organizations (NGO's)
Organizations (IGO's)
National Academy of Sciences
WMO
Committee on Global Change
UNESCO
International Council of Scientific Unions
UNEP
IGBP and others
?
?
Coordinating/Facilitating Organizations
Governments & Agencies
?
Gov't Agencies (NASA, EPA, etc.)
Structure not yet arranged
Foreign Gov't Agencies
Steering Groups
Nat'l Committees
FCCSET
?
?
Committee
on Earth Sciences
International Science Community
Informal Planning Mechanisms-Seminars, Journals, etc.
Organized Planning Mechanisms-Workshops, Conferences, etc.
Figure 2. The national and international organizations involved in the planning, coordination,
support, and/or conduct of global change research.
25
THE APPROACH
26
THE PLAN
The Research Plan:
U.S. Global Change Research Progam and FY 1990 Initiatives
The major divisions of this section are the seven interdisciplinary science elements: (1)
Climate and Hydrologic Systems, (2) Biogeochemical Dynamics, (3) Ecological Systems and Dy-
namics, (4) Earth System History, (5) Human Interactions, (6) Solid Earth Processes, and (7) Solar
Influences. Many of the current scientific global change endeavors are approximately at this stage of
disciplinary integration. An eighth section, "Data Management," is included because success with
the science elements will depend largely on the Program's ability to gather, coordinate, integrate,
disseminate, and hence utilize the data gained from research and observations.
Within each interdisciplinary science element, the Program is presented according to the
three Program objectives: (1) establishing global-scale, long-term observation systems, (2) improv-
ing the understanding of Earth system processes, including those associated with human activities,
and (3) developing predictive Earth system models. As a measure of the progress in program inte-
gration, many of the research activities described below appear under more than one objective, i.e.,
programs that incorporate observations, process studies, and predictions.
Within each objective, the Program is described in the section (without priority order) in
terms of answers to three questions:
What are the strengths of the current understanding? The information on the agency pro-
grams given in Appendix B is the basis for the analysis of the current research situation. The
summaries in Appendix B are arranged in the following hierarchy: agency; interdisciplinary
science element; and the set of long-term observations, research, data management, and
facilities. Therefore, for reference, the appropriate parts of the Appendix will be noted
simply by giving (alphabetically) the agency(ies) involved. In the further analyses (i.e.,
identifying the high priority research needs), it is assumed that agency support and profes-
sional commitments will continue for these current strong and essential elements of the
Program.
What are the weaknesses in the current understanding and what high priority research is
needed to correct them? Where the current understanding is inadequate to address the key
questions, the research needed to fill those gaps is described briefly. Since not all of the
needed research can be started here at the outset of the U.S. Global Change Research Pro-
gram, the high priority components are emphasized.
What agency FY 1990 initiatives and/or augmentations address those priority needs? Since
a significant portion of the required research is currently being performed as part of ongoing
agency programs (described in Appendix B), this section will highlight the research that is
needed to accelerate the development of understanding in key areas. Programs described in
this section are FY 1990 initiatives and/or augmentations that are part of the President's FY
1990 budget. In a few exceptional cases, there are entries in this section where new monies
have not been requested; they represent significant new efforts through reprogramming of
existing funds (these cases are specifically identified). Ongoing agency activities are not
described in this section, but can be found in Appendix B.
27
THE PLAN: CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS
Climate and Hydrologic Systems
The physical climate and hydrologic systems incorporate the atmospheric, oceanic, and land
surface processes that govern atmospheric and oceanic circulations and associated distributions of
temperature, moisture, clouds, and precipitation over the surface of the Earth. The system has
preferred modes of variability on a number of time scales, and the ultimate effects of man's altera-
tions of the atmosphere and land surfaces will be strongly modulated by the natural characteristics of
the system. Some of the components of the system are indicated schematically in Figure 3.
An accurate prediction of the magnitude and timing of a change in climate (changes in the
patterns of temperature, precipitation, and severe weather) is limited because of a significant number
of uncertainties in the understanding of the physical climate system, including: (i) how clouds
modulate the Earth's radiative balance and, conversely, how their distribution may respond to a
change in the radiative forcing or aerosol loading of the atmosphere; (ii) how the exchange of
energy between the ocean and the atmosphere may change, especially if the circulation patterns of
the ocean change; (iii) how the exchange of energy and water will be impacted by changes in albedo
(due to changes in land cover and the extent of sea ice, glaciers, and snow cover) and terrestrial
vegetation; (iv) how climate and land surface hydrology will interact; and (v) how water is ex-
changed between ice sheets and the ocean and the effect of this exchange on sea level.
ATMOSPHERE
Clouds
Radiation
LAND
Circulation
Hydrology
ICE
Evapotransporation
Sea Ice Effects
Albedo
Albedo
Wind Stress
Circulation
Evaporation/Precipitation
OCEAN
Heat Exchange
Figure 3. A schematic representation of the components of the physical climate system and
some of the significant processes in the fluxes of energy and water.
28
THE PLAN: CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS
A predictive capability for the Earth's climate and hydrologic systems will strongly influence
our policy responses on a number of major environmental and economic issues:
"Greenhouse" Warming. Natural variability in the climate system, unless accurately pre-
dicted, could well obscure extensive mitigation efforts by man. For example, the ocean's
huge capacity to store and release both heat and carbon dioxide will strongly influence any
global warming signal. A change in net cloud radiative forcing of a few percent would be
equal to the radiative effects of a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide.
Sea Level Rise. Of major concern to coastal communities are the problems of coastal erosion
and loss of wetlands due to changing sea level, a problem closely linked to climate change.
Global warming effects could intensify storms, which, coupled with rising sea level, would
further increase erosion and storm damage.
Water Supplies. This is one of the dominant public policy issues in arid regions of the
country. Prediction of future supplies would allow major decisions on water projects and
allocations to be made on a far more rational basis than they are made today.
Agricultural Policy. Crop yields are strongly tied to rainfall, and the 1988 drought had a
significant impact on the national economy. The ability to anticipate such an event would
have strong implications for farm assistance programs and agricultural trade.
Ozone Depletion. To what extent will changes in stratospheric ozone impact the Earth's
climate?
Developing the predictive capability for the physical climate and hydrologic systems that is
necessary to provide scientific input to the policy decisions implicit in these issues has three neces-
sary components: global-scale observation, process studies, and simulation and predictive models.
Global-Scale Observations. A combination of in situ and satellite-based remote techniques is
needed to establish continuous, long-term global monitoring of critical physical variables that char-
acterize the state of the atmosphere, cryosphere, oceans, and land surface. Monitoring techniques
are available now for radiation, clouds, vegetation, snow cover, atmospheric and sea surface tem-
peratures, sea level change, glacial and sea ice extent, ocean wind stress, and surface circulation.
Techniques for other parameters, including soil moisture and precipitation, involve methods under
various stages of research and development that suggest the need for a continuous global monitoring
capability. Still others, such as subsurface oceanic circulation, have available techniques (either
experimental or operational) that offer less than continuous global monitoring. All of the variables
cited are either important indicators of climate change or are important data fields for application
with numerical simulation/predictive models.
Process Studies. The variability of the physical climate and hydrologic systems involves the interac-
tion of many dynamic and thermodynamic processes. These processes are of two broad types:
Those that are essentially internal to one of the main components of the systems, i.e., the
atmosphere, oceans, land, and cryosphere. These are mainly responsible for the modes of
variability within the components, as well as the characteristic time constants of response.
29
THE PLAN: CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS
Those that govern the interactions and feedbacks between the main components of the cli-
mate and hydrologic systems. These are mainly the fluxes of heat, momentum, and water.
Simulation and Predictive Models. The understanding and prediction of the complex responses of
the fully coupled climate and hydrologic systems can be achieved only through development of
increasingly sophisticated simulation models. These models must ultimately couple the atmosphere,
oceans, ice, land, and biosphere, and will involve many sub-models that mathematically represent
the individual processes at work within and between the coupled components of the systems. Impor-
tant characteristics of the real system, involving transient responses and rapid transitions, are proba-
bly governed by processes operating on spatial and temporal scales below those of existing models,
so that progress on climate system models will likely be paced by computational advances, as well
as process research for some time.
There is clearly much to be done before the feasibility and optimum form of predictions of
the physical climate and hydrologic system can be realized. A description of the major strengths and
weaknesses in these three areas and an indication of how these weaknesses are being addressed by
the U.S. Global Change Research Program in FY 1990 follows.
Global-Scale, Long-Term Observations of the Climate and Hydrologic Systems
Strengths of Current Observational Programs
(i) Historical Data Sets. Historical land-based and marine meteorological data sets have sufficient
duration and scale to be useful in assessing global climate change. Extensive soil moisture, land,
glacial advances/retreats, ground water, streamflow, lake levels, sea ice variability, desertification,
and vegetation data sets exist for many habitable areas (but with questionable long-term precision
and consistency); these also constitute significant historical global change data sets. (NOAA, NSF,
USGS, DOE)
(ii) Operational Meteorological Observing System. More than 30 years of advances in numerical
weather prediction have led to a global meteorological observing system, although its requirements
are largely determined by the needs of the numerical models that provide the basis of weather pre-
diction rather than by climate applications. (NOAA, NSF, NASA)
(iii) Remote Sensing - Meteorological. Advances in remote sensing technology, both satellite and
in situ, have revolutionized the meteorological observation system. For example, space-derived
atmospheric temperature soundings provide the only data available over large parts of the Southern
Hemisphere. Satellite remote measurements also have provided the basis for establishing a global
cloud climatology and an Earth radiation budget. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology
Project (ISCCP) is acquiring a global data set of cloud distributions and radiative properties from the
operational meteorological satellites dating back to 1983. A regional validation is being pursued
through the First ISCCP Regional Experiment. The Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) is
currently measuring radiation fields both globally and regionally, and a Global Baseline Surface
Radiation Station Network is being established to acquire surface radiation fluxes to validate satel-
lite-derived quantities. (NASA, NSF, NOAA)
(iv) Remote Sensing - Oceanic. Remote sensing also has strengthened ocean observational capabili-
ties. Sea surface temperature is now being measured by operational satellites, although there is need
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THE PLAN: CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS
for greatly improved in situ calibration in many regions. The application of satellite radar altimetry
for sea surface topography has made rapid advances over the last 15 years. Maps of regional sea
surface topography are now being produced from the NOAA/Navy GEOSAT program; substantial
improvements are expected as a result of the Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX/Poseidon), a
NASA satellite radar altimeter project designed for global ocean circulation research. NASA is also
continuing construction on the NASA scatterometer (NSCAT), which will provide vital surface wind
data over the world ocean. (NASA, NOAA, Navy)
(v) Remote Sensing - Sea Ice. Variations in arctic and antarctic sea ice can be monitored from
operational spacecraft. Microwave radiometric observations from the Nimbus series of spacecraft,
followed by the Defense Meteorological Satellite Project (DMSP), currently provide a 16-year
record of changes, and this record will continue into the future. (NASA, USGS, NOAA, Navy)
(vi) Monitoring the Cryosphere. The Landsat series of satellites is in place and can be used to
monitor areal fluctuations in glaciers, ice caps, and ice sheets on sequential images. A World Gla-
cier Monitoring Service (WGMS) in Zurich, Switzerland, has been established by the United Na-
tions Environment Program (UNEP) to monitor fluctuations of selected glaciers. In a few countries
(for example, Switzerland and Norway), excellent historical glacier fluctuation data sets exist.
Satellite-based remote measurement of ice sheet configuration is increasingly possible, as has been
established from satellite radar altimetry (Seasat and Geosat). (USGS, NOAA)
(vii) Remote Sensing - Land Surface. Satellite-based remote measurements of other such land
surface properties as vegetation index, snow cover, and soil moisture are becoming increasingly
reliable. (NASA, NSF, USGS, NOAA)
(viii) Ocean Observations. The capability exists to make intensive observations of the fundamental
ocean parameters (sea level, thermal and salinity structure, velocity, tracer distribution, etc.) using a
variety of in situ and remote techniques. In situ capabilities now include rapid underwater sampling,
telemetry from floats and buoys, acoustic and electromagnetic techniques that integrate over large
spatial scales, and geochemical tracers that provide ocean circulation information. (NOAA, NSF,
NASA, Navy, DOE)
(ix) Pacific Ocean Monitoring. Ocean observational capabilities are being demonstrated in the
tropical Pacific Ocean, where a large-scale monitoring network is in place providing rapid and
nearly continuous measurements of thermal structure, sea level, and limited surface winds. (NOAA,
NSF, NASA)
(x) Watershed Monitoring. Experimental watersheds in forest, steppe, and agricultural ecosystems
have monitored water yield and quality on manipulated and controlled watersheds for more than 5
years. (USDA)
Weaknesses in Current Observational Programs and High Priority Research Needs
(i) Data Sparse Regions. The existing atmospheric observation system is severely limited over the
oceans and remote land areas and is deteriorating. New instrumentation development for the in situ
atmospheric observation system is minimal. Available atmospheric data for driving ocean models
are generally inadequate and, in many regions, rely on interpolation schemes that are also inade-
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THE PLAN: CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS
quate. For example, in the tropical Pacific, surface wind is the single most important input data for
ocean models, yet these data must be obtained from widely scattered ship reports.
(ii) Climate Trends. The atmospheric observing system was designed for weather prediction, not
climate monitoring, which requires end-to-end system performance evaluation to separate long-term
trends in climate data from non-climatic changes due to, for example, instrument calibration drift
and station changes. At the present time, not a single meteorological variable is consistently evalu-
ated in this way.
(iii) Inadequate Observations. Several parameters critical for climate study cannot be or are not
now adequately observed: water vapor, precipitation, evaporation, near-surface hydrology, snow
depth, soil moisture, aerosols, and stratospheric temperatures. Fluxes of heat and water vapor
between the atmosphere and underlying surfaces (ocean, land surface, and cryosphere) are poorly
quantified.
(iv) Validation of Remotely-Sensed Observations. While satellite measurements allow construction
of a planetary radiation budget, these measurements are not well validated, and the time variability
of the terms of this budget is not well known.
(v) Land Surface - Albedo. Land surface albedo is not properly characterized due to a lack of
bidirectional measurements from spaceborne sensors.
(vi) Ocean Observing System. Only the rudiments of an ocean observing system analogous to that
of the atmosphere are now in existence. For example, the thermal state of the ocean mixed layer,
which is actively involved in the exchange of heat with the atmosphere, is inadequately measured for
modeling purposes. Most of the in situ ocean observing system is funded by research programs with
limited lifetimes.
(vii) Sea Level. Sea level gauges are inadequately distributed, and conventional instrumentation
cannot distinguish between actual changes in ocean volume and land motions. Present satellite
altimetry is contaminated by atmospheric effects and is not sufficiently accurate for ocean dynamics
purposes.
(viii) Air-Sea Fluxes. Existing information on critical air-sea flux parameters, such as wind stress
fields and evaporation, do not meet the requirements for ocean modeling.
(ix) Ice Mass Balance. Our most glaring deficiency in knowledge of the cryosphere is whether
Antarctica and Greenland are gaining or losing ice because, with 99.3 percent of the combined
volume of the world's ice, changes in their volumes have the greatest potential impact on sea level.
A Landsat-type global observing system is needed to provide systematic, repetitive coverage of the
ice-covered regions of our planet to monitor and document long-term areal changes in glaciers, ice
caps, and ice sheets, especially in the antarctic and Greenland ice sheets.
(x) Polar Hydrology. Small changes in polar terrestrial hydrology can lead to large changes in the
physical and chemical characteristics of polar ocean surface water; basic data on all aspects of the
polar hydrologic cycle are inadequate for climatic interpretation.
(xi) Regional Hydrology. Some components of the hydrologic cycle, e.g., evapotranspiration,
groundwater recharge, and precipitation over land, are not easily measured over large areas. Valid
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THE PLAN: CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS
results from general circulation model simulations are, in part, dependent upon the existence of
realistic measures of water balance terms. The lack of such regional-scale measurements introduces
a severe shortcoming in the testing of GCM output.
(xii) Historical Observations. At present there are very few global data sets that have been com-
piled and processed for the specific purpose of monitoring and detecting climate change. A substan-
tial effort to collect and process historical observations into global data sets will be required.
FY 1990 Agency Initiatives and/or Augmentations (Observations)
(i) Enhanced Ocean Observation Programs. One major component will be the implementation of
an Atlantic Volunteer Observing Ship Network. Using expendable probes dropped from ships of
opportunity, this program will produce distributions of upper ocean temperature and (ultimately)
salinity in the Atlantic Ocean, following the example of the successful programs in the Pacific. Also
included will be observations of geochemical tracers to obtain time-dependent descriptions of ocean
circulation. (Addresses weakness vi; NOAA: FY89=$1.2M, FY90=$2.5M.)
(ii) Increased Deployment for the Global Sea Level Network. This network will be capable of
measuring absolute sea level to 1 cm accuracy by making use of existing systems where possible, by
deploying new advanced technology systems at selected sites, and by establishing a global absolute
geodetic reference framework. (Addresses weakness vii; NOAA: FY89=$1.3M, FY90=$3.0M.)
(iii) The DOE Climate System Research Program. This program, which obtains and analyzes
climate observations to quantitatively link radiative change and climate change, will be enhanced.
(Addresses weakness xi; DOE: FY89=$0, FY90=$1.0M.)
(iv) The World Ocean Experiment (WOCE). The NSF role will be augmented to initiate a large-
scale global hydrographic tracer experiment in 1990 to provide basic observations for the description
of large-scale water mass distributions and their spatial and temporal characteristics. (Addresses
weaknesses vi and viii; NSF: FY89=$1.2M, FY90=$1.3M.)
(v) Ice Sheet Observations. New research will be undertaken to monitor changes in key glaciers by
means of remote sensing techniques. (Addresses weakness ix; USGS: FY89=$0, FY90=$0.2M.)
(vi) Earth Observing System. NASA's budget will be augmented to provide comprehensive meas-
urements of the physical climate of the Earth through the Earth Observing System (Eos) mission.
These measurements will include the radiation budget of the Earth measured from two polar orbiting
platforms at different times of day and night, as well as measurements from the Space Station Free-
dom sampling all local times over the tropics. The atmosphere will be characterized as to its tem-
perature, winds, and moisture structure from the ground to the mesopause. The topography, surface
wind velocity, sea-ice cover, and glacier fluctuations will be monitored using imaging and other
radar techniques from Eos. The temperature of the surface will be determined from infrared and
microwave imagers. Eos will sample rain rates and cloud properties on a global basis and more
intensively over the tropics. (Addresses weaknesses i, ii, iii, iv, v, vi, vii, and ix; NASA:
FY89=$2.5M, FY90=$3.8M.)
(vii) Data Services. NOAA's Climate and Global Change Program will improve data management
support for global change program elements, including data bases on trace gases, global hydrologic
33
THE PLAN: CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS
cycle, and enhanced support for predictive climate change models on time scales of seasons to
centuries. Strengthening of observational networks requires support for activities which lead to
climate data bases which meet user requirements and can be easily accessed by the global change
community. NOAA will also support an interagency working group to establish and coordinate a
Global Change Data and Information System by 1995. (Addresses weakness xii and others; see Data
Management section; NOAA: FY89=$1.0M, FY90=$2.0M.)
(viii) Land Surface Data Systems. Provide for permanent archive, management, access and distri-
bution of land Earth-science data sets for global change research related to the climate and hydro-
logical systems. Includes transfer of remotely sensed data (e.g., Landsat) to stable storage media, ar-
chive of selected USGS data sets for global change, and access to land data maintained by other
Federal agencies. (Addresses weaknesses ix and X (observations), V and xii (understanding); USGS:
FY89=$0, FY90=$0.9M.)
Improving the Understanding of Climate and Hydrologic Systems
Strengths of Current Understanding
(i) Weather Prediction. The behavior of the atmosphere is relatively well known and predictable on
shorter, weather time scales of a few days to a week or so. On longer, climatic time scales, the
fundamental forcing mechanisms and their primary effects are known, but the detailed reaction of
the many non-linear systems involved is not known. (NOAA, NSF, NASA, DOE)
(ii) Forcing by Radiatively Active Species. The direct perturbations to the radiative balance that
radiatively active species play are well understood. (NSF, NOAA, NASA, DOE)
(iii) Water Processes - Atmosphere. The general processes through which water plays a fundamen-
tal role in radiation, atmospheric chemistry, and the transport and storage of heat are well under-
stood. (NSF, NOAA, NASA)
(iv) Ocean General Circulation. The major dynamic processes that determine the circulation of the
ocean are based on classical principles that are rather well understood. (NSF, NASA, NOAA, Navy)
(v) El Niño - Southern Oscillation. Significant progress has been made in understanding the tropi-
cal ocean and its role in interannual climate change through the Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere
(TOGA) Project. For example, empirical and dynamical models can simulate some aspects of the
evolution of El Niño events. (NOAA, NSF, NASA)
(vi) Regional Ocean Processes. Understanding of key regional ocean processes can potentially
provide a foundation for basin and global model development. For example:
Western boundary currents, which play a major role in oceanic and atmospheric processes, have
been the focus of several recent successful studies. Considerable effort has been devoted to the
Gulf Stream, for example, and a multi-year time series of transport through the Florida Straits
has been obtained. (NSF, NOAA, Office of Naval Research [ONR])
Upper ocean physical processes, such as mixed layer development, thermocline ventilation, and
subduction are better understood due to a series of focused studies. These provide the link in
coupled air-sea models. (NSF)
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THE PLAN: CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS
(vii) Ocean Surface Forcing. Recent progress in understanding the role of ocean surface forcing via
winds and fluxes has opened new research opportunities to utilize satellite data and to strive for
coupled ocean-atmosphere models. For example, an ocean model of the tropical Pacific, driven by
observed winds, can roughly reproduce observed features of the thermal structure. (NSF, NOAA,
NASA)
(viii) Ice Mass Balance. Glaciologists have a good understanding of glacier mass balance and some
aspects of the physics of glacier flow. It has also been determined that individual basins within ice
sheets vary greatly in net mass balance. (USGS, NSF)
(ix) Albedo and Global Radiation Balance. Significant advances have been made in discerning the
roles of land surface and ice albedo in the global radiation balance. (NASA, NSF, USGS)
(x) Evapotranspiration and Climate. The process of evapotranspiration of plants or vegetation
canopies and their interaction with the climate system are under extensive investigation. (NSF,
USGS, NASA)
Weaknesses in Current Understanding and High Priority Research Needs
(i) Scale Interactions - Atmospheric. The way in which small-scale atmospheric processes, e.g.,
convection and cloud-aerosol-radiation interactions, affect larger-scale climate processes is inade-
quately known. Conversely, the influence of large-scale processes on small-scale events is crucial to
understanding climate change and requires substantial research.
(ii) Abrupt Climate Change. The stability of the states of the climate system and the potential for
abrupt change between them, along with other transient responses, are not understood.
(iii) Teleconnections. Teleconnection between regional processes in the atmosphere and corre-
sponding processes in the ocean are known to be important and require substantial research to
understand causal mechanisms. For example, there is evidence that the 1988 summer North Ameri-
can drought is tied to sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific; more diagnostic work needs to
be done to clarify other such remote coupling mechanisms.
(iv) Atmospheric Trace Species. The interaction among chemical constituents, radiation, and the
dynamics and thermodynamics of the atmosphere needs substantial research, i.e., on the quantitative
link between trace species and climate change.
(v) Global Hydrologic Cycle. The lack of knowledge of the functioning of the global hydrological
cycle, i.e., the role of water throughout the climate system, is a key impediment to climate predic-
tion. In addition, the influence of large-scale atmospheric processes on local and regional hydrologic
conditions requires considerable research.
(vi) General Circulation of the Ocean. The general circulation of the ocean and the processes by
which surface and deep water are exchanged are not well known. In particular, the mechanisms and
distribution of poleward heat flux by the oceans are critical climate issues requiring an improved
description of the global ocean circulation.
35
THE PLAN: CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS
(vii) Ocean Circulation Changes. Evidence suggests specific mechanisms through which the ocean
undergoes major changes in circulation, which are in turn coupled to interdecadal to centennial
climate change; these mechanisms are only vaguely understood.
(viii) El Niño - Southern Oscillation. Despite broad advances from research on El Niño-Southern
Oscillation phenomena, the mechanisms governing the timing of this global scale climate oscillation
are not well understood.
(ix) Ice Sheet Mass Balance. The most important area of research in the cryosphere is to determine
the mass balance status of the ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland at the present time, and to
determine how their respective mass balances are changing in response to climate warming because
of the linkage of negative mass balance in glaciers to rising sea level.
(x) Sea Ice and the Oceans. The dynamics and thermodynamics of the interaction between sea ice
and the ocean and the influence of sea ice on both ocean circulation and climate require further
study.
(xi) Coupling Mechanisms. The atmosphere/land surface/ocean/ice coupling mechanisms are not
sufficiently known on climate-relevant time and space scales.
(xii) Hydrologic Cycle. The influence of large-scale atmospheric processes controlling precipitation
anomalies on local and regional hydrologic conditions requires considerable research. Development
of a capability for forecasting surface hydrologic conditions over monthly to seasonal time scales
first requires an elucidation of the processes causing covariability of climatic and hydrologic condi-
tions through the historic record.
FY 1990 Agency Initiatives and/or Augmentations (Understanding)
(i) Energy and Water Budgets. Hydrological cycle investigations involve a range of different
activities to address weaknesses in this area. The hydrological research of USGS and NOAA will
focus on the energy and water budget aspects of land-atmosphere interactions, including problems of
representing spatial variability of available moisture and on relations between hydrologic conditions
and large-scale climatic conditions. The Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX)
studies the global water cycle with particular emphasis on the energy and water fluxes in the atmos-
phere/Earth system. The program will examine the thermal balance of the atmosphere and the
exchange of moisture and energy with land, oceans, ice, and snow. It will develop methods of
predicting changes in water distribution in the atmosphere and underlying surfaces. (Addresses
weaknesses v, xi, and xii; USGS: FY89=$0.5M, FY90=$1.9M; NOAA: FY89=$0, FY90=$0.5M.)
(ii) World Ocean Circulation Experiment. Ocean circulation studies will address our lack of under-
standing of both the general circulation and the specific processes of the ocean that influence cli-
mate. The World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) aims to observe and model the ocean with
all of the climatologically important elements of its circulation quantitatively observed. Initial field
activities will begin in FY 1990. NOAA process research in this context will focus on the coupling
mechanisms between interdecadal climate change and thermohaline circulation, particularly in the
Atlantic. (Addresses weaknesses vi, and vii; NSF: FY89=$4.0M, FY90=$6.0M; NOAA: FY89=$0,
FY90=$1.5M.)
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THE PLAN: CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS
(iii) Radiation and Climate Change. The DOE climate system program will substantially augment
research to quantitatively link radiative change and climate change. The specific focus will be to
determine the timing and characteristics of climate change. (Addresses weakness iv; DOE:
FY89=$0, FY90=$ 3.0M.)
(iv) Arctic Systems Science. The NSF Arctic Systems Science (ARCSS) program will be aug-
mented to permit more detailed studies of oceanic dynamics and the air/sea/ice exchange of heat and
moisture to better understand the role of the polar regions in forcing atmospheric circulation. (Ad-
dresses weaknesses vii, X, and xi; NSF: FY89 = $0.5M, FY90 = $1.5M.)
(v) Glacier Mass Balance. The USGS carries out annual mass balance studies on four glaciers in
Alaska and one in Washington. Annual aerial and ground surveys of glacier fluctuations are made
of selected U.S. glaciers. In FY 1990, the USGS plans to increase its regional monitoring of glacier
fluctuation and mass-balance studies in the conterminous United States and Alaska. (Addresses
weakness ix; USGS: FY89=$0.2M, FY90=$0.3M.)
(vi) Tropical Oceans - Global Atmosphere. The NSF role in the Tropical Oceans Global Atmos-
phere (TOGA) program will be augmented to further investigate the moisture and heat exchange
between the tropical Pacific Oceans and the atmosphere and to prepare for TOGA COARE (Coupled
Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment) proposed in this region in 1992. (Addresses weaknesses
iii,viii, and xi; NSF: FY89 = $4.8M, FY90 = $5.4M.)
(vii) Eos. The combination of sensors on Eos will provide multi-parameter data to study precipita-
tion processes, snow and ice processes, and air-sea interaction. Rain radar and passive microwave
sensors combined with cloud imagers will provide simultaneous measurements of cloud top tem-
perature, rain rate, and the vertical distribution of rain intensity. This will improve understanding of
precipitation formation within storms. Repetitive images of snow and ice cover throughout the
annual cycle of accretion, modification, and melt will lead to an extensive picture of how these
processes interact with other environmental variables such as temperature and terrain. The processes
by which the oceans and the atmosphere exchange moisture, trace gases, heat, and momentum will
be studied using boundary layer measurements, including wind speed at the boundary, temperature,
and moisture. (Addresses weaknesses i, iv, v, and ix; NASA: FY89=$1.3M, FY90=$1.9M.)
Developing Predictive Models
Strengths of Current Models
(i) Atmospheric GCMs. General circulation models can simulate much of the synoptic scale behav-
ior of the atmosphere and some of the primary features of the observed global climate, e.g., El Niño-
Southern Oscillation events. Several different models give similar projections of future global-
average temperature increases for the corresponding "greenhouse" gas scenarios, and climate models
can simulate some aspects of the paleoclimatic record. (NOAA, NASA, NSF, DOE)
(ii) Model-Assimilated Observations. A solid base of experience has developed in assimilating
atmospheric data into general circulation models. (NOAA, NASA)
(iii) Computational Power. Substantial improvement in models can be achieved by improvements
in computational processing ability alone, and this is continuing to increase rapidly. (NOAA,
NASA, NSF, DOE)
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THE PLAN: CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS
(iv) Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Models. Coupled ocean-atmosphere models can simulate the
evolution of El Niño events in a rudimentary way and form a basis for organizing ocean observa-
tional efforts in the tropics. (NOAA, NSF)
(v) Basin-Scale Ocean Modeling. In part due to increased computational capability, major progress
in ocean modeling has occurred, particularly in basin-scale models. For example, a model of the
North Atlantic that can resolve ocean eddies has been developed. (NSF, NOAA, NASA, Navy)
(vi) Ocean Model Data Assimilation. Inverse modeling, which constrains ocean processes by data
assimilation, has emerged as a critical component of future research. Within certain limitations, this
technique allows diagnosis of circulation and mixing regimes using distribution of properties such as
temperature and salinity. (NSF)
(vii) Land-Surface Processes. Modest advances in representing vegetation and aspects of land-
based hydrologic processes in models are being made. (NASA, NSF, USGS, USDA)
(viii) Meteorology-Hydrology Interactions. Models relating the interactions of meteorological and
hydrologic processes over relatively short time scales (hours to days) and small spatial scales (water-
shed size) have reached a relatively advanced state of development. (NASA, USGS, NOAA,
USDA)
Weaknesses in Current Models and High Priority Research Needs
(i) Annual Cycle. A basic test of climate models is their ability to simulate the annual cycle, i.e., the
seasonal changes in the oceans and atmosphere; this is inadequately reproduced by today's models.
In addition, climate models cannot yet simulate the changes in the atmosphere or in the hydrologic
system observed over the last hundred years. These shortcomings limit confidence in their applica-
tion to long-term predictions.
(ii) Clouds and Radiation. The representation of clouds and their overall effect on the Earth radia-
tion balance is one of the principal limitations of climate modeling today. At this point, although we
are beginning to understand the net effect of cloud forcing (i.e., the albedo effect dominates over the
"greenhouse effect" globally), the question of how global cloud processes will modulate global
warming (i.e., their feedback) remains essentially unknown.
(iii) Models for Climate Change. Because of continuing changes in model code and inability to
incorporate data that are not transmitted in near real-time, present operational numerical weather
prediction models are not suitable for the study of climate change. Numerical weather prediction
models also do not generally include physical details that are important for longer time scales, e.g.,
energy balance processes.
(iv) Interannual Climate Prediction. Current forecasts of seasonal climate are empirical and lacking
in predictive skill, but the tools for routine model-based climate prediction on seasonal time scales
exist.
(v) Ecosystems. Current general circulation models cannot provide input at ecologically important
regional, ecosystem, or watershed scales. Climate and hydrology models that can bridge the differ-
ence between general circulation models and ecosystem scales must be developed.
38
THE PLAN: CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS
(vi) GCM Resolution. Despite the available computational capability, the research community is
severely limited by the resolution required for climate general circulation models.
(vii) Ocean Processes. Many key ocean processes are not modeled well, yet are critical to model
success. Examples include:
vertical convection, particularly at high latitudes;
mixing;
parameterization of eddies and other physical phenomena smaller than grid scale; and
stability for long-term computation.
(viii) Model Assimilation of Ocean Observations. No global ocean model is yet capable of assimi-
lating ocean observations in the same way that numerical weather prediction models use atmospheric
observations.
(ix) Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Models. While coarse-scale coupled ocean-atmospheric models
have been developed, major progress needs to be made in this area. In global models, for example,
this means that features such as the Straits of Gibraltar are simply not included and that exchanges
between the oceans and marginal seas are crudely approximated at best.
(x) Ice-Ocean-Atmosphere Coupling. Much improved models are needed to link climate change to
glacier mass balance changes and changes in sea level, so that the glacial component of sea level
change can be predicted. In addition, second generation, three-dimensional ice sheet models, which
include thermodynamics, ocean coupling, and feedback effects of solid Earth deformation, are
needed to simulate the present state of the polar ice sheets and to predict the response of ice sheets to
climate change. A better model of a marine-based ice sheet, such as the West Antarctic ice sheet, is
needed to produce a coupled glacier ice-ocean-atmosphere model.
(xi) Climate Prediction. Models capable of simulating the coupled atmosphere/ocean/land surface/
cryosphere are critical to successful climate prediction and do not now exist.
(xii) Terrestrial Hydrology. Despite modest improvements, the adequate parameterization of
variables representing the terrestrial phase of the hydrologic cycle remains a major weakness in the
capabilities of existing climate models. Principal shortcomings relate to the high degree of spatial
variability of land surface characteristics (topography, soils, and vegetation), spatial variability of
precipitation, representation of lateral as well as vertical movement of water in the subsurface, and
orographic influences on precipitation and temperature.
(xiii) Regional Impacts. Regional terrestrial and near-coastal impacts resulting from large-scale
climate changes are beyond the state-of-the-art of existing models, as are tools to evaluate regionally
effective mitigation methods.
39
THE PLAN: CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS
FY 1990 Agency Initiatives and/or Augmentations (Models)
(i) Climate Forecast Research Centers. A program in experimental forecast development is pro-
posed to develop a variety of empirical, statistical, and numerical modeling techniques leading to
projections of climate changes on interannual to centennial time scales. A limited number of "cli-
mate forecast research centers" will be directed toward model development, model validation and
performance evaluation, improved simulations of natural variability in the climate system, and
development of techniques to address critical problems in coupled models (such as climate drift,
realistic conditions at the ocean-atmosphere interface, and model resolution). A program in seasonal
climate forecasting is also proposed to advance from routine weather forecasting into longer, climate
time scales by developing the capability to routinely predict major seasonal climate anomalies.
(Addresses weaknesses i, ii, iii, iv, vii, ix, X, and xi; NOAA: FY89=$0, FY90=$1.0M.)
(ii) Climate Diagnostics. NOAA is developing a program in climate diagnostics to document the
climate state on a global basis and to analyze the evolution of climate trends and fluctuations. One
of the major activities is the implementation of a Climate Data Assimilation System to routinely
assimilate all conventional, satellite, and research data into a homogeneous, self-consistent, global
atmospheric data set for climate analysis purposes. Also included under this program is model-
based analysis of historical climate data sets and diagnostic efforts on model output itself. (Ad-
dresses weaknesses i, ii, iii, and iv; NOAA: FY89=$2.0M, FY90=$3.0M.)
(iii) Hydrology and Modeling. USGS, through collaboration with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics
Laboratory (NOAA) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NSF), is working to im-
prove the parameterization of those land surface/atmospheric interactions associated with surface
and subsurface hydrologic conditions in general circulation and mesoscale models. (Addresses
weakness xii; USGS: FY89=$0.2M, FY90=$0.3M.)
(iv) Water Resource Studies. USGS is developing methods for conducting integrated assessments
of the impact of climate change on the hydrology of large river basins. This work includes (a)
studies of changes in streamflow (including seasonal patterns, droughts, floods, and average rates of
runoff), ground water recharge, and water quality as a result of changes in climate and (b) salinity
effects in estuaries and aquifers due to rising sea level. (Addresses weakness xiii; USGS:
FY89=$0.5M, FY90=$0.6M.)
(v) Water Resource Impacts. EPA is developing a program to evaluate the sensitivity and potential
effects of global climate change on water resources. This program will use existing, modified, or
new models to evaluate the regional impact of climate change on water volume, water quality,
terrestrial ecosystems, aquatic biota and fisheries, and water management structures and strategies.
Relationships between global circulation and biotic regions and hydrologic systems will be investi-
gated to link global climate patterns to regional processes. Effort will be directed at development of
regional-scale coupled models of climate, hydrology, and ecology. (Addresses weakness xiii; EPA:
FY89=$0.7M, FY90=$2.2M.)
(vi) Model Intercomparisons. DOE will extend its model diagnosis program to attempt to under-
stand the physical causes of the differences among models (e.g., clouds, ocean models, etc.), under-
stand reasons for disagreements between models and the climate observations (e.g., processes such
as convection), and define requirements for improving models (e.g., increased resolution and time
dependent calculations). (Addresses weaknesses ii and V to vii; DOE: FY89=$2.0M,
FY90=$3.0M.)
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THE PLAN: CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS
(vii) Eos. The Eos initiative will provide support for research on modeling the global climate,
assimilating satellite and other data into such models and incorporating realistic parameterizations of
fine-scale phenomena in these models. (Addresses weaknesses ii and xi; NASA: FY89=$0.5M,
FY90=$0.7M.)
(viii) World Ocean Circulation Experiment. The NSF WOCE activities will be augmented to
further develop models for improved descriptions of water-mass time scales and circulation in the
Southern Ocean. (Addresses weaknesses vii and ix; NSF: FY89=$0.7M, FY90=$0.8M.)
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THE PLAN: BIOGEOCHEMICAL DYANAMICS
Biogeochemical Dynamics
An essential part of reliably predicting change on a global scale is an adequate understanding
of the cycling of the key nutrient elements - carbon, nitrogen, oxygen, sulfur, and phosphorus -
through their major reservoirs: (i) the oceanic and freshwater aquatic systems, (ii) the solid Earth
component, (iii) the biosphere, and (iv) the atmosphere. These major elements are represented
schematically in Figure 4, along with the cycling processes that link them.
Several current and pressing environmental issues hinge on aspects of biogeochemical
dynamics, for example:
"Greenhouse" Warming. Growing atmospheric concentrations of radiatively important
gases because of increased emission rates from surface sources, like carbon dioxide, meth-
ane, and nitrous oxide;
Acid Deposition. Increasing acidification of soils and lakes due to deposition from the
atmosphere of sulfur- and nitrogen-containing acids formed by chemical transformations of
pollutants emitted from surface sources in other regions;
Deforestation. Release of carbon, primarily carbon dioxide, to the global atmosphere from
biospheric reservoirs due to land clearing in the tropics;
OXIDATION
EMISSION
DEPOSITION
REDUCTION
Figure 4. Schematic representation of biogeochemical dynamics: the major reservoirs and the
cycling processes that link them. Solar energy drives the system: a gain of oxygen ("oxi-
dation") in the atmosphere and a loss of oxygen ("reduction") in the biosphere.
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THE PLAN: BIOGEOCHEMICAL DYNAMICS
Coastal Pollution. Perturbations of aquatic systems due to elevated nitrogen and phospho-
rous; and
Ozone Depletion. Growing atmospheric abundances of trace gases that can decrease strato-
spheric ozone because of increased emissions rates from surface sources, e.g. chlorofluoro-
carbons, nitrous oxide, and methane.
Gaining the understanding of biogeochemical cycling necessary to provide scientific input to
the policy decisions that are imbedded in these issues has three research components. These are
described below.
Long-Term Observations. Establishing the magnitude and spatial and temporal variations of the
carbon, nitrogen, oxygen, sulfur, and phosphorous reservoirs defines the total elemental content of
the global system and its "ambient" distribution. For example, a crude inventory of the storehouse
of carbon, excluding the geological reservoirs, is 2 percent in the atmosphere, 5 percent in the land,
and 93 percent in the oceans. Long-term observations of such reservoirs, their component parts, the
trends in their magnitudes, and the changes in their distributions furnish vital signals of global
change. Such departures from the biogeochemical "quasi-steady state" are a window into changes in
the biogeochemistry of the planet, changes that are both perturbations to and responses of the global
system.
Furthermore, these trends also are important global change diagnostics that can be used to
critically test the ability of global models to simulate the observed temporal behavior of the bio-
geosphere. The atmosphere, because of its relatively low mass and high mixing, is the reservoir that
is the most sensitive indicator of changes. Because of the relative ease with which it can be ob-
served in detail, signs of change are unequivocal, e.g., increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide,
chlorofluorocarbons, nitrous oxide, and methane. Indeed, such trends are virtually the only detailed
long-term biogeochemical time series. What is happening in other major reservoirs?
Process Studies. As is also indicated in Figure 4, the cycling through the reservoirs, excluding the
geological reservoir, involves essentially three groups of transfer processes:
the biogeochemical processes occurring within the oceans and on the land,
the geophysical and biological processes that control the fluxes of compounds between the
atmosphere and the aquatic (primarily oceanic) and terrestrial biospheres, and
the meteorological and chemical processes that control the distribution and transformation of
chemicals within the atmosphere.
A full elemental cycle is the series of all three. Changes in the processes controlling the
fluxes usually cause subsequent trends in the reservoirs, e. g., larger fossil fuel emissions of carbon
dioxide cause a subsequent increase in its atmospheric abundance, since the deposition flux out of
the atmosphere is largely unaltered. While some individual transformations are known (e.g., the
emission factors linking fossil fuel combustion to carbon dioxide release), others are poorly known
(e. g., the net flux of carbon dioxide into the ocean). There are significant scientific uncertainties in
each of the carbon, nitrogen, oxygen, sulfur, and phosphorus cycles. While biogeochemical cycling
can induce global changes (e.g., the buildup of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere), global change can
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THE PLAN: BIOGEOCHEMICAL DYANAMICS
alter biogeochemical cycling (e.g., changes in methane fluxes from alterations in the areal extent of
wetlands).
Predictive Models. A predictive understanding of the dynamics of the biogeochemical system
requires an integrated picture of the transforming and linking processes occurring over a wide
spectrum of spatial scales, e.g., microbiological methane production and regional-to-hemispheric
transport of pollutants. A basic modeling requirement is to account for the differences in the spatial
distribution of the reservoirs, e.g., couching the inputs so that global proxy data can adequately
define the parameters required. Currently, only crude theoretical representations exist on global
scales for the major biogeochemical cycles.
Yet the need for a better predictive understanding acutely exists for many aspects of biogeo-
chemical cycles. For example, while it may be possible to define policy options associated with
future scenarios for such human-influenced gases like the chlorofluorocarbons and carbon dioxide, it
is currently not possible to do so for methane and nitrous oxide because a full picture of the cause(s)
for their increases is not yet available. Thus, while long-term observations of the past decade have
identified trends that portend a possible "greenhouse" warming problem, an inadequate understand-
ing of the processes that cause the increases prevents predictions of future trends and, of more
relevance to policy decisions, prevents defining defensible approaches to altering the trends.
A status report on biogeochemical dynamics research - its strengths, its weaknesses, and
what the U.S. Global Change Research Program is doing about the latter in its FY 1990 increment -
follows.
Global-Scale, Long-Term Observations of Biogeochemical Dynamics
Strengths of Current Observational Programs
(i) Ocean Color Sensing. Satellites (Coastal Zone Color Scanner) have demonstrated the capability
to estimate phytoplankton abundance by observing ocean color. These data also provide estimates
of the biological productivity of the world's oceans on a global scale and the rate of uptake of carbon
by the ocean (NASA). SeaWiFS (NASA), which may fly aboard LANDSAT-6 in 1991 (NOAA), is
an improved satellite ocean color sensor designed to provide global estimates of ocean biological
productivity. If SeaWiFS does not fly aboard LANDSAT-6 in 1991, there will be an inability to
monitor phytoplankton abundance globally for several years.
(ii) Vegetation Index. Satellites (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) provide estimates of
global vegetation photosynthetic capacity on a daily-to-monthly basis and net primary productivity
integrated over the growing season (NASA, NOAA). LANDSAT also provides data useful for
detailed vegetation classification, vegetation condition, and surface monitoring (NOAA).
(iii) Long-Term Ecological Research Sites. Key ecosystem parameters such as bioproductivity,
nutrient cycling (i.e., input-output and turnover of carbon, nitrogen, sulfur, and phosphorus), and
hydrological variables of important terrestrial and aquatic biomes (including tundra, tropical forests,
grasslands, deserts, and freshwater and marine coastal ecosystems) are observed at NSF Long-Term
Ecological Research (LTER) sites, at DOE National Environmental Research Parks, and USDA
Forest Service Experimental Forests.
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THE PLAN: BIOGEOCHEMICAL DYNAMICS
(iv) Trace Gas (Long-Lived) Monitoring. Global, ground-based networks exist to accurately moni-
tor the ground-level atmospheric abundances of the long-lived, chemically important and/or radia-
tively active trace gases, such as carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and numerous halocarbons.
The emphasis has been largely on remote-area baseline sites (DOE, NASA, NOAA). Global-scale
oceanic carbon dioxide measurements are planned as a component of the World Ocean Circulation
Experiment (WOCE) and the Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS). (DOE, NASA, NOAA,
NSF, SCOR)
(v) Precipitation and Particulate Monitoring. Regional and limited global-scale networks exist for
monitoring (1) the chemical composition of precipitation and the dry deposition of particles, and (2),
in polluted areas, the surface concentrations of ozone, carbon monoxide, and other industrially
produced gases. (DOE, EPA, NOAA, NSF, USGS, USDA)
(vi) Monitoring Capabilities. Observational capabilities (i.e., detection methods and data retrieval
techniques) exist for monitoring many key stratospheric chemical constituents using ground-based
and satellite techniques, and commitments to future long-term observations of several key constitu-
ents (e.g., ozone and nitrogen dioxide) have been made. (NASA, NOAA)
(vii) Research Satellite. A major dedicated Upper Atmospheric Research Satellite (UARS) will be
launched in 1991 to provide global-scale observations of primarily stratospheric and mesospheric
chemical composition, dynamics, and energy input. (NASA)
Weaknesses in Current Observational Programs and High Priority
Research Needs
(i) Trends in Elemental Storage. Trends need to be determined in the spatial distribution and stor-
age of the major biogeochemical elements within each of the key terrestrial and oceanic ecosystems,
with a particular emphasis on understanding carbon cycling (i.e., terrestrial and oceanic biomass,
total dissolved carbon in the ocean, carbon dioxide, and methane stored in clathrates).
(ii) Trends in Environmental Parameters. Improved understanding is needed of the trends and
spatial distribution of the environmental conditions (e.g., temperature, precipitation, and chemical
deposition) that influence storage, uptake, and emission of the major biogeochemical elements.
(iii) Trends in Upper-to-Lower Ocean Fluxes. Systematic monitoring is needed, over long-time or
large-space scales, of (1) the fluxes of trace gases and/or (2) their biochemical precursors and prod-
ucts from the upper ocean to the deep ocean, where materials are then isolated from climate interac-
tion. Emphasis should be on the flux of inorganic and organic carbon. This need will require the
development of new in situ, unattended measurement systems that can operate for extended periods
in remote areas and under harsh conditions.
(iv) Distribution and Trends of Surface/Atmosphere Fluxes. Studies are required of the spatial and
temporal variability, as well as the long-term trends, of the fluxes of key trace gases and particulate
material between the atmosphere and all relevant oceanic and terrestrial ecosystems, as well as
anthropogenic sources, both at the regional and global scales. The three major priorities are: (1)
uptake and release patterns of carbon dioxide from the major ocean basins and terrestrial ecosys-
tems, (2) escape of chemically reactive pollutants from the continental boundary layer to the global
45
THE PLAN: BIOGEOCHEMICAL DYANAMICS
"free" troposphere, and (3) emissions of methane and other natural hydrocarbons. These needs will
require the development of simple methods for making systematic long-term measurements of trace
gas fluxes and aerosols over large spatial scales at remote sites.
(v) Trends in Flux-Relevant Ecosystems. Understanding is needed of trends in the spatial extent and
characteristics of key ecosystems that are highly active in the exchange of chemically important and
radiatively active trace gases with the atmosphere (e.g., wetlands, peatlands, and permafrost areas
that are an important source of methane), and of trends in ecosystem conditions that influence gas
exchange rates, e.g., surface temperature, soil moisture, and stress factors.
(vi) Trace Gas (Intermediate Lifetime) Monitoring. Measurements are required of temporal trends,
spatial distributions, and vertical profiles of the atmospheric concentrations of trace gases with
intermediate lifetimes (e.g., carbon monoxide and many of the non-methane hydrocarbons) that (1)
affect the atmospheric abundances, hence lifetimes, of the radiatively active trace gases or that lead
to the formation of important tropospheric oxidants, (2) are themselves radiatively active (e.g.,
tropospheric ozone), (3) are precursors of acid deposition (e.g., sulfur dioxide), and (4) may affect
the formation of clouds (e.g, dimethyl sulfide). Emphasis should be placed on species controlling
the abundance of radiatively active trace gases, tropospheric oxidants, and stratospheric ozone.
(vii) Distributions and Trends of Short-Lived Trace Gases. The spatial distribution and trends of
most of the short-lived, chemically active species in both the troposphere and the stratosphere (e.g.,
hydroxyl radical, nitrogen oxides, nitric acid, chlorine monoxide radical, hydrogen chloride, and
bromine monoxide radical) need to be determined. Emphasis should be placed on species control-
ling the abundance of atmospheric ozone and radiatively important gases, such as methane.
(viii) Monitoring of the Altitude Profiles of Trace Gases. Trends in the altitude profiles of the long-
and intermediate-lived gases above established surface monitoring sites need to be determined. The
emphasis should be on the radiatively active gases such as methane, whose global sources and sinks
are being studied. In addition, continental monitoring sites must be established for long-lived gases.
Each of the above will require global observations from space and the establishment of a
complementary system of in situ and remote-sensing measurements at/from surface sites and air-
craft. The ground-based network and aircraft campaigns will provide calibration and/or validation of
the satellite measurements and complementary observations of parameters not easily measured by
satellites.
FY 1990 Agency Initiatives and/or Augmentations (Observations)
(i) Global Ocean Flux Monitoring. The NSF and DOE contributions to the Global Ocean Flux
Study (GOFS) (NSF, NASA, DOE and NOAA) have been expanded. The GOFS will include long
time-series monitoring of the fluxes of carbon and other key elements (nitrogen, oxygen, and phos-
phorus) from upper to deep ocean at a few representative locations. (Addresses weaknesses i to iv;
NSF: FY89=$0.6M, FY90=$0.7M; DOE: FY90 reprogramming=$1.0M)
(ii) Ground-Based Stratospheric Monitoring Network. As part of its Climate and Global Change
program, NOAA will expand its component of the recently initiated Network for the Detection of
Stratospheric Change (NDSC) (NASA and NOAA). The NDSC will provide continuous time series
of (1) temperature and (2) the total column content and the vertical profiles of a number of key
stratospheric chemical constituents, including ozone and ozone-related chemicals, at several sites
46
THE PLAN: BIOGEOCHEMICAL DYNAMICS
around the globe. The development and testing of remote-sensing instrumentation and analysis
methods and the design of the network will be accelerated. (Addresses weakness vii; NOAA:
FY89=$0.5M, FY90=$1.0M.)
(iii) Times Series Data of Vertical Distributions of Radiatively Active Trace Gases. The expanded
monitoring of the Radiatively Important Trace Species (RITS) program occurring as a part of the
Climate and Global Change program (NOAA) will include acquiring time series of (1) the vertical
profiles of tropospheric ozone and longer-lived "greenhouse" species and (2) intermediate-lived
chemically active species like carbon monoxide at baseline global monitoring observatories, e.g.,
Mauna Loa (Hawaii). (Addresses weaknesses vi and vii; NOAA: FY89=$0, FY90=$0.5M.)
(iv) Atlantic Island Monitoring Sites. The recently initiated NSF Global Tropospheric Chemistry
program includes the establishment of Atlantic island sites to monitor aerosol and precipitation
chemistry and deposition in the important region between North America and Europe. (Addresses
weaknesses iv, vi, and vii; NSF: FY89=$0.6M, FY90=$0.7M.)
(v) Forest Ecosystem Monitoring. The USDA Forest Service Forest Health and Productivity in a
Changing Atmospheric Environment Program is designed to determine the effects of atmospheric
change on forest ecosystems in order to determine the effects of forest management activities on the
atmosphere. (Addresses weakness v; USDA: FY89=$2.1M, FY90=$3.1M.)
(vi) Earth Observing System (Eos). The NASA budget will be increased for the development of
remote sensing instrumentation for polar orbiting satellites and the space station in low inclination
orbit and for an advanced information system for the Earth Observing System (Eos) (NASA, Euro-
pean Space Agency [ESA], and Japanese Space Agency [JSA]). Eos will monitor many parameters
that are indicators of the state of the biogeochemical cycles of the key nutrients, such as the spatial
and temporal distribution of tropospheric and stratospheric constituents (e.g., carbon dioxide, carbon
monoxide, methane, nitrous oxide, the oxides of nitrogen, ozone, dimethyl sulfide); pigment and
phytoplankton concentrations in open and coastal oceans; and terrestrial ecosystem extent, dynam-
ics, and state (e.g., soil moisture, surface temperature, intercepted photosynthetically active radia-
tion, leaf area index, vegetation condition, net primary production). (Addresses weaknesses i, ii, V to
viii; NASA: FY89=$1.8M, FY90=$2.6M.)
Improving the Understanding of Biogeochemical Processes
Strengths of Current Understanding
(i) Small-Scale Biological Productivity Processes. The environmental factors (temperature, water
content, chemical composition, etc.) and processes (mass and energy transport, photosynthesis, plant
growth, etc.) that control biological productivity and nutrient cycling in terrestrial ecosystems are
fairly well understood at the very small spatial scales (plots and stands of vegetation to watershed
scale). (DOE, EPA, NSF, USDA)
(ii) Terrestrial-Ocean Elemental Cycling. An improved understanding of continental shelf dynam-
ics of biological, physical, and chemical processes that control the fluxes of carbon and other key
biogenic materials between the terrestrial-ocean interface and the ocean boundary currents is being
developed. (DOE)
(iii) Boreal Forest-Atmosphere Interactions. The Second International Satellite Land Surface
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THE PLAN: BIOGEOCHEMICAL DYANAMICS
Climatology Project (ISLSCP) Field Experiment (SIFE) will study the interaction between the boreal
forest biome and the atmosphere, with particular emphasis on the regional energy balance, carbon
balance, and trace gas fluxes. (NASA, NSF)
(iv) Localized Flux Measurements of Less-Reactive Trace Gases. Techniques have been developed
for highly localized, in situ, flux measurements from aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems for most less-
reactive trace gases (e.g., methane) that will be useful for process oriented studies. These techniques
may also be useful for monitoring non-point sources of anthropogenically produced gases. (NASA,
NOAA, NSF, DOE, EPA)
(v) Improved Analytical Techniques. Recent analytical advances have been made in several proc-
ess-related areas of study, for example:
(a) the study of chemical and physical processes in sea water, e.g., more accurate measure-
ments of the biota and the concentrations of dissolved carbon dioxide and ionic species. (DOE,
NOAA, NSF)
(b) the in situ time monitoring of rates of photosynthesis in the upper ocean using fluorom-
etry and optical methodologies. (DOE, NASA, ONR);
(c) the ability to measure fluxes of water vapor and some other gases across certain well-
instrumented landscape-size areas (1 to 2 square km) of managed and unmanaged ecosystems.
(DOE, NASA);
(d) the in situ measurement of key chemically reactive tropospheric constituents (e.g., the
nitrogen oxides) in remote areas, where the instruments have been subjected to rigorous intercom-
parison experiments. (DOE, EPA, NASA, NOAA, NSF);
(e) the in situ and remote sensing measurements of radical compounds (e.g., the halogen
oxides) via stratospheric aircraft and ground-based stations, as were utilized in the investigations of
the recently discovered antarctic ozone "hole". (NASA, NOAA, NSF); and
(f) the development of accelerator mass-spectrometry techniques for the measurement of
very small quantities of carbon-14 and beryllium-10 in environmental systems. (DOE, NSF).
(vi) Regional Chemical /Transport Processes. In situ measurements of trace gas concentrations and
fluxes coupled with meteorological parameters have demonstrated the importance of understanding
atmospheric boundary layer processes. These initial investigations have addressed ecosystems as
diverse as tropical forests and the Alaskan tundra. (EPA, NASA, NOAA, NSF)
(vii) Gas-Phase Chemical Reactions. The gas-phase chemical transformation processes of the key
oxygen, hydrogen, nitrogen, and halogen species in the stratosphere are relatively well understood as
a result of laboratory and stratospheric measurements. (NASA, NOAA, NSF)
(viii) Optical Properties of Trace Gases. The ability exists to determine the optical properties (e.g.,
infrared line strengths) of the radiatively active trace gases, such as carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous
oxide, and numerous halocarbons. (DOE, NASA, NOAA, NSF)
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THE PLAN: BIOGEOCHEMICAL DYNAMICS
Weaknesses in Current Understanding and High Priority Research Needs
(i) Elemental Storage and Cycling Processes. A need exists for an improved understanding of the
factors and processes that control the present distributions, storage, and cycling of the major biogeo-
chemical elements within terrestrial, freshwater, and oceanic ecosystems and how these may respond
to changes in the environment. In particular, the processes that control ecosystem biogeochemical
cycling at large spatial and long temporal scales are poorly understood. A key question is whether
the processes that operate at small spatial and short temporal scales are significant at larger and
longer scales. Specifically, the research activities required for an improved understanding should
include:
(a) Satellite, surface, and sub-surface measurements of oceanic properties and processes that
will lead to an improved understanding of biogeochemical cycles in the ocean, e.g., the proc-
esses that remove inorganic carbon from surface waters of the world's oceans via vertical
transport to the deep ocean and/or biological activity. The focus will be to study, on both
global and regional scales, the processes controlling the fluxes of carbon and associated
biogenic elements within the ocean and in exchange with the sea floor and continental
boundaries.
(b) Observations and manipulations of natural ecosystems; studies of controlled sites of
different sizes (especially large sized or special ecosystem sites); and laboratory investiga-
tions to enhance understanding of composition and structure of key terrestrial ecosystems,
how the major biogeochemical elements cycle through them, and what processes control the
pathways and rates of their cycling.
(c) Observations that lead to an improved understanding of the processes that control the
transfer of nutrients and other biogeochemical elements from terrestrial ecosystems into
rivers, to estuaries and coastal ecosystems, and, ultimately, to the ocean.
(ii) Gas-Exchange Processes. Quantitative understanding of the natural and human-influenced gas-
exchange processes operating between the air and the surface is inadequate relative to how they
affect the long-lived and intermediate-lived chemically and radiatively important trace gases, par-
ticularly carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, methane, non-methane hydrocarbons, nitrous oxide, the
nitrogen oxides, and the sulfur gases. The large-scale geophysical and biological processes that
control the fluxes of these gases between the atmosphere and aquatic biosphere and terrestrial bio-
sphere are not adequately characterized. Research should consist of:
(a) Surface and airborne field measurements to understand the processes controlling the
fluxes of chemically and radiatively important trace gases between terrestrial, freshwater, and
oceanic ecosystems and the atmosphere. Isotopic composition data will be needed to interpret
these observations. Emphasis should be placed on (1) development of flux measurement
methodologies, (2) the processes controlling the exchange of carbon (e.g., carbon dioxide)
and sulfur (e.g., dimethysulfide) between the atmosphere and the ocean's major basins, and
(3) the fluxes of carbon (e.g., methane) between the atmosphere and all major terrestrial
anaerobic ecosystems and hydrocarbon reservoirs.
(b) Satellite observations of terrestrial ecosystem extent and state (e.g., soil moisture, surface
temperature, intercepted photosynthetically active radiation, leaf area index, vegetation
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THE PLAN: BIOGEOCHEMICAL DYANAMICS
condition, net primary production) and oceanic extent and state (surface temperature and
phytoplankton distributions).
(c) Laboratory and field experimental studies to understand the impact of climate change on
biospheric feedbacks, i.e., the impact on trace gas fluxes. Emphasis should be placed on
carbon (e.g., methane), nitrogen (e.g., nitrous oxide), and sulfur (e.g., dimethyl sulfide and
carbonyl sulfide).
(d) The development of improved trace-gas and particulate emission inventories and projec-
tions based on current conditions and anticipated global changes, e.g., changes in global
climate and ocean circulation, or more directly, on projected human activities, such as fossil-
fuel energy policies and land-use patterns (see the Section on Human Interactions). These
scenarios must include anticipated changes in natural processes, such as soil-moisture and
temperature effects on biogenic emissions, and the effect of applying mitigation techniques
on the emission of trace gases influenced by human activities.
(iii) Chemical Transformation and Dynamical Exchange Processes. Improvements are needed in:
(1) the characterization of the homogeneous, and especially the heterogeneous (gas-particle), tropo-
spheric and stratospheric transformation processes of the gases that control the atmospheric life-
times, and hence abundances, of the radiatively and chemically important species, and (2) the rate
and mechanisms of exchange of gases across the tropopause (e.g., water vapor and ozone) and out of
the planetary boundary layer (e.g., ozone-related gases). Research should consist of laboratory
studies of chemical reactions, development of methods for measuring atmospheric abundances of
more of the reactive species, surface and airborne field measurement campaigns, and satellite obser-
vations to measure and understand the processes controlling the chemical composition and the
dynamical and radiative structure of the atmosphere.
FY 1990 Agency Initiatives and/or Augmentations (Understanding)
(i) Global Ocean Fluxes. The NSF component of the Global Ocean Flux Study (GOFS) (DOE,
NASA, NOAA, and NSF) will be augmented. GOFS will initially focus on the processes controlling
the global marine carbon cycle, emphasizing those biological processes that control the flux of
carbon into and out of the oceans, transformations in the upper ocean, and exchange between the
upper ocean and subthermocline depths and the sea floor. Data from the SeaWiFS satellite sensor
will provide global estimates of oceanic productivity with high spatial and temporal resolution.
(Addresses weaknesses i[c] and ii[a]; NSF: FY89=$4.7M, FY90=$5.8M.)
(ii) Tropospheric Ozone and Methane Chemistry. The Radiatively Important Trace Species (RITS)
program, whose augmentation is a part of the Climate and Global Change Program (NOAA), will
address the chemical processes (nitrogen oxide and hydrocarbon reactions) that could explain the
apparent increasing trend in tropospheric ozone in the Northern Hemisphere and those (hydroxyl
radical chemistry) that influence the global methane trends. This would be an important element of
the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry Program (IGACP) proposed by ICSU's Interna-
tional Commission on Atmospheric Chemistry and Global Pollution. (Addresses weaknesses ii[a]
and iii; NOAA: FY89=$0, FY90=$1.0M.)
(iii) Biospheric Influences on Atmospheric Composition. The NSF Global Tropospheric Chemistry
Program of the NSF Global Geosciences Activity will be augmented to address issues related to the
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THE PLAN: BIOGEOCHEMICAL DYNAMICS
processing and cycling of radiatively, chemically, and biologically important species through the
atmosphere, with a special emphasis on better understanding the biospheric influences on atmos-
pheric composition. This would be an important element of the IGACP. (Addresses weaknesses ii
[a]; NSF: FY89=$3.4M, FY90=$6.4M.)
(iv) Antarctic Ozone and Biogeochemistry. The NSF contributions to the National Ozone Expedi-
tion will be augmented to enhance the studies of stratospheric ozone depletion over Antarctica and
the possible influence that such changes may have on biogeochemical processes in the high southern
latitudes. (Addresses weaknesses i[d] and iii; NSF: FY89=$3.0M, FY90=$3.3M.)
(v) Trace-Gas Emission Factors and Inventories. The EPA Global Climate Change Program will
measure the emissions of important trace gases from both natural and anthropogenic sources to
improve emission factors and inventories, study atmospheric chemical transformation processes, and
assess the potential effects of climate change on nutrient cycles and trace gas emissions at the eco-
system and regional levels and develop data bases and methods for evaluating their contributions to
the global biogeochemical cycles. Initial emphasis will be placed on methane and nitrous oxide.
(Addresses weaknesses ii[a] and [d]; EPA: FY89=$ 0.6M, FY90=$ 3.1M.)
(vi) Process-Oriented Eos Instrumentation Development. The development of instrumentation for
the Earth Observing System (Eos) (NASA, ESA, and JSA) will be augmented to improve the under-
standing of many aspects of global biogeochemical cycling, such as the processes controlling (a)
ocean productivity; (b) the cycling of nutrient elements through terrestrial ecosystems; and (c) the
chemical composition of the troposphere and stratosphere. (Addresses weaknesses ii[b] and [d], and
iii; NASA: FY89=$0.9M, FY90=$1.3M.)
(vii) Carbon- and Sulfur-Related Biotic Processes. As part of its Climate and Global Change
program, NOAA will extend its biogeochemical research to initiate two ocean-oriented research
thrusts aimed at understanding (1) the biotic processes that influence the fluxes of carbon dioxide
between the atmosphere and the open ocean, and (2) the role of marine sulfur emissions in forming
cloud condensation nuclei, hence influencing albedo. (Addresses weaknesses ii[a] and [c]; NOAA:
FY89=$0, FY90=$0.5M.)
Developing Predictive Models
Strengths of Current Models
(i) Simulation of Small-Scale Ecosystem Process. Detailed simulation models of key ecosystem
processes exist, but they operate at relatively small scales for terrestrial systems (e.g., leaf, site, and
stand), although they have not been rigorously tested or validated. (DOA, DOE, EPA, NSF, USDA)
(ii) Stratospheric (Non-Polar) Chemistry. Theoretical gas-phase chemical models now simulate,
with a fair degree of accuracy, the chemical composition of the unperturbed (non-polar) stratosphere,
i.e. the concentrations and partitioning of key oxygen, hydrogen, nitrogen, and chlorine species.
(DOE, NASA, NOAA, NSF)
(iii) Regional Chemical/Transport Processes. Emerging coupled chemical/transport ("Eulerian")
models are beginning to reveal some features of rural chemistry that match new observations, such
as high rural ozone episodes, and the phenomenon of acid deposition, where the comparison to
results of field campaigns is underway. (DOE, EPA, NOAA)
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THE PLAN: BIOGEOCHEMICAL DYANAMICS
(iv) Initial Oceanic Carbon Uptake Predictions. Ocean box diffusion and lateral transport models,
coupled with terrestrial ecosystem models, have been developed to estimate carbon uptake by the
oceans and predict atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations for a variety of fossil fuel combustion
scenarios. (DOE, NASA, NSF)
(v) Preliminary Estimates of Future Anthropogenic Trace Gas Emissions. There are models that
can be used to estimate future anthropogenic emissions of some of the important trace species from
U.S. sources, e.g., carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide and oxides of nitrogen. (EPA)
Weaknesses in Current Models and High Priority Research Needs
The long-term goal is to develop integrated models of biogeochemical cycling that couple
terrestrial, oceanic and atmospheric processes, e.g., the interactions between the biogeochemical,
hydrological, and physical climate system. Specifically, there is a need to develop:
(i) Upper-Ocean Models. Three dimensional models of the upper ocean in which the thermodynam-
ics, the fluid dynamics, the chemistry, and the biological processes are fully interactive.
(ii) Coupled Dynamical Biogeochemical -Atmosphere-Ocean Models. Ocean general-circulation
and basin-scale coupled ocean-atmosphere models that adequately account for the physical, biologi-
cal, and chemical processes governing the uptake and release of carbon dioxide and other biogeo-
chemical elements and that include shelf-water processes.
(iii) Climate Change and Ocean Productivity and Circulation Models. Models that would ulti-
mately permit the prediction of (1) the effects of climate change on ocean productivity and (2) the
effect of changes in ocean circulation on the ability of the oceans to sequester and store atmospheric
carbon dioxide.
(iv) Coupled Ecosystem-Atmosphere Models. Mechanistic models of ecosystem processes that
operate at the landscape to regional to global scales and that can be linked to atmospheric chemistry
or global climate models.
(v) Ecosystem Models with Nutrient and Hydrology Interactions. Mechanistic models of biogeo-
chemical cycling at a hierarchy of spatial and temporal scales in specific terrestrial, freshwater, and
oceanic ecosystems that incorporate nutrient interactions and the hydrological cycle.
(vi) Scaling of Ecosystem Processes. Theoretical models that connect chemical and physical atmos-
pheric models to terrestrial ecosystems and that establish mathematical understanding of small-scale
ecosystem processes in relation to large-scale regional and global systems.
(vii) Use of Satellite Data as Input to Trace Gas Exchange Models. Models of trace-gas exchange
and ecosystem biogeochemical cycling that can be "driven" by satellite and ground-based observa-
tions of the biologically and physically (surface temperature, winds, etc.) driven trace gas fluxes
between the terrestrial, freshwater, and ocean ecosystems and the atmosphere.
(viii) Coupled Dynamical, Chemical, and Radiative Atmospheric Models. Models of the tropo-
sphere and stratosphere in which the dynamics, chemistry (both homogeneous and heterogeneous),
and radiation are fully coupled and interactive. In particular, there is need to predict the climatologi-
cal and chemical factors that influence heterogeneous processes.
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THE PLAN: BIOGEOCHEMICAL DYNAMICS
(ix) Chemical Exchange Models. Models that can accurately simulate (1) the exchange of energy
and chemicals between the stratosphere, troposphere. and planetary boundary layer and (2) how
changes in stratospheric and tropospheric ozone could influence the Earth's climate system.
(x) Mechanistic Carbon Dioxide Models. Mechanistic models: (1) of the physical, chemical, and
biological processes that control the exchange of carbon dioxide among terrestrial, oceanic, and
atmospheric sources and sinks, and (2) that treat the simultaneous influences of changing atmos-
pheric properties (e.g., the abundance of carbon dioxide) and different climate conditions on fluxes
of biogeochemical elements and associated likely positive and negative feedbacks.
(xi) Human-Interaction/Trace-Gas Models. Models that can quantify the effects of human activities
and climate change on the global and regional emissions of radiatively active trace gases.
FY 1990 Agency Initiatives and/or Augmentations (Models)
(i) Global Ocean Flux Models. The NSF component of GOFS (DOE, NASA, NOAA, and NSF)
will be augmented. GOFS includes a strong focus on both diagnostic and prognostic models of the
ocean processes (vertical transport, biological transformations, and chemical interactions) that affect
the fluxes and transformations of carbon and other biogenic elements within the upper ocean and
their exchange with the atmosphere, deep ocean, and terrestrial systems. (Addresses weaknesses i,
ii, iii, and vii; NSF: FY89=$0.6M, FY90=$0.7M.)
(ii) Initial Global Carbon Cycle Models. The development of time-dependent global carbon cycle
models incorporating coupled terrestrial and oceanic ecosystems. (Addresses weaknesses iii and x;
USGS: FY89=$0, FY90=$0.1M.)
(iii) Coupled Dynamical/Chemical Climate Models. The modeling research in the Radiatively
Important Trace Species (RITS) program that will be augmented under the Climate and Global
Change program (NOAA) will seek to incorporate coupled ozone-related chemical/transport proc-
esses in a hierarchy of models, including a general-circulation model, to compare diagnostic and
time-series data on the vertical profiles of tropospheric ozone and other trace gases. (Addresses
weaknesses viii and ix; NOAA: FY89=$0, FY90=$0.5M.)
(iv) Surface Exchange Models. The Global Tropospheric Chemistry Program (NSF) will be aug-
mented to increase activities on the development of atmospheric chemistry models that can be
coupled with models describing transport and biological and physical surface exchange processes.
(Addresses weaknesses viii and ix; NSF: FY89=$0.6M, FY90=0.7M.)
(v) Interdisciplinary Models to Use Eos Observations. Interdisciplinary theoretical investigations
associated with the Earth Observing System (Eos) have been initiated to utilize Eos and complemen-
tary data to improve the current predictive capabilities for such phenomena as ecosystem distribu-
tions and conditions; biogeochemical fluxes at the ocean-atmosphere and land-atmosphere inter-
faces; fluxes of carbon and nutrients within terrestrial, freshwater, and oceanic systems; and atmos-
pheric composition. (NASA) (Addresses weaknesses i to ix; NASA: FY89=$0.3M, FY90=$0.5M.)
(vi) Emission Inventory Modeling. The development of a model to estimate global emissions of
important trace gases from anthropogenic and natural sources. (Addresses weakness xi; EPA:
FY89=$0.2M, FY90=$0.4M.)
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THE PLAN: ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS AND DYNAMICS
Ecological Systems and Dynamics
Ecological systems and dynamics are important to global change as both cause and effect.
Ecological systems contain the terrestrial, freshwater, and marine biota that provide food and fiber
for humans. Ecosystems provide other "environmental services" through their influences on such
environmental attributes as air and water quality, the amount and distribution of surface water and
groundwater, and wildlife and human habitats. Therefore, disruption to managed and unmanaged
ecosystems has direct effects on our economic and social well-being. Physical variables, such as
temperature and precipitation, and biotic interactions ultimately control the distribution of species;
some species also are extremely sensitive to chemical toxification. Species, in turn, influence the
characteristics of ecosystems, and ecosystems influence the physical environment through such
phenomena as reflectance, evapotranspiration, and emissions of radiatively important gases. There-
fore, ecosystems with altered structural and functional properties can have feedback effects on the
physical and chemical environment.
Ecological systems are not static, but are constantly changing, as underscored schematically
in Figure 5. Changes can be caused by natural climatic variability, by inherent periodicity of bio-
logical processes, or as a consequence of human activities that alter ecological systems or alter the
chemical, biological, or physical characteristics in ways leading to other, usually undesirable,
changes.
WARMING
wills
waller
EROSION
DEFORESTATION
CHEMICAL
WASTES
Figure 5. Ecosystem responses to environmental change.
Most current environmental issues bear directly on potential large-scale, unprecedented
changes in ecological systems with unknown, but likely undesirable, consequences.
"Greenhouse" Warming. Increased temperature and altered distribution of rainfall may alter
species distributions and composition of ecological systems with the potential for feedback
effects on the climate system.
54
THE PLAN: ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS AND DYNAMICS
Acid Deposition. Increasing acidification of soils and surface waters and addition of sulfur
and nitrogen from atmospheric deposition may eliminate "sensitive" and economically
important species in some ecosystems and may change ecosystem structure and function
(e.g., biological productivity).
Biodiversity. Deforestation in the tropics and other land clearing changes habitats, leading to
extinction of species, some of which have never been described; chemical pollution may
selectively eliminate sensitive species or genetic strains.
Coastal Pollution. Increased nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) input to coastal waters can
change species composition and biological productivity and may lead to eutrophication;
sediment runoff and chemical waste inputs eliminate species that are ecologically and eco-
nomically important.
Sea Level Rise. Rise in sea level, which may be caused by warming and land subsidence
(natural and man-made), could result in wetland loss and altered biological productivity and
species composition and distribution.
Erosion. Erosion of topsoil and associated flooding and sedimentation of lowlands/water-
ways may alter nutrient dynamics and productivity of managed ecosystems.
Ozone Depletion. Increased UV-B irradiance may affect marine, crop, and other terrestrial
ecosystems through its effects on sensitive species (e.g., biogeochemical and physiological
processes).
Three research components are necessary to provide scientific input to policy decisions
affecting ecological systems: (1) characterization, classification, and monitoring of ecological
systems, (2) research on ecological processes, and (3) development of predictive models of ecologi-
cal system structure and function. Currently our knowledge is far too limited to provide the basis for
predictive models.
Characterization, Measurement, and Monitoring. Two main purposes are served by the charac-
terization and classification of ecological systems: (1) to provide a comprehensive picture of the
ecological resource base, which is key to relating local/regional phenomena to larger scales of
reference, and (2) to highlight systems which may be highly sensitive to change, such as coastal
ecosystems, ecotones, etc.
Monitoring of ecological systems is critical to research on global change. Ecological systems
are dynamic, responding to internal cycles, normal variations in climatic variables, and recovery
following natural disturbances, e.g., fire, flood, wind, etc. Except for the most obvious and drastic of
human activities, the principal and often most scientifically controversial question is whether the
observed changes in ecological systems stem from natural causes or are of anthropogenic origin. If
this question can be resolved it can only come from carefully maintained long-term records (multi-
decadal) of ecological dynamics used in combination with an understanding of the processes in-
volved. A related issue concerns the response of ecological systems to past global environmental
change (paleo-ecological reconstruction) as a baseline against which to interpret future change; this
is discussed in more detail in the section on Earth System History.
Research on Ecological Processes. Biological processes control the interactions of the biosphere
with the physical climate system through emissions of radiatively active gases and water vapor.
Therefore, interpreting the dynamics of ecological systems in the context of global change requires
55
THE PLAN: ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS AND DYNAMICS
understanding the underlying processes. Ecological processes mediate many critical steps in global
biogeochemical cycles, which are discussed in the previous section. Also, physiological responses
to extreme physical conditions, to the dynamics of the physical environment, and related to the
ability of plants and animals to reproduce and establish themselves are significant determinants of
the geographical limits of individual species.
Developing Predictive Models. A long-term goal of research on global change is to be able to
predict the future state and dynamics of ecological systems, in terms of both their feedbacks to the
climate system though emissions or absorption of "greenhouse" gases and responses to global
change in terms of changing species composition and biological processes. Predictive understanding
builds on a knowledge of the distribution of ecosystems and their long-term dynamics and a thor-
ough understanding of ecological processes.
Several steps must occur in order to realize this capability to predict responses of ecological
systems (NAS, 1988). Ecological processes are ordered or integrated at different levels of complex-
ity, ranging from individuals to whole ecosystems to coupled ecosystems at various scales. Models
and theory need to be further developed and refined at all of these levels and with precision and
accuracy of prediction that are commensurate with adequate resolution of the question being asked
of the model.
A status report on research on ecological systems and their dynamics follows, outlining
strengths, weaknesses, and needs and what the U.S. Global Change Research Program is addressing
in FY 1990.
Global-Scale, Long-Term Observations of Ecological Systems and Dynamics
Strengths of Current Observational Programs
(i) Remote Sensing. There is a modestly developed capability for large-scale land cover mapping
and inventory, including preparation of monthly averaged, global Advanced Very High Resolution
Radiometer (AVHRR) vegetation index data for the period 1981 to present and preservation and
analysis of fine spatial scale Landsat and SPOT data for selected, climatically sensitive regions of
the globe. The existing 9-year record of satellite observations of ecosystem extent and state using
AVHRR is being recalibrated and reprocessed to provide greater accuracy about the species ob-
served from the various satellites that have been used to acquire these data. (NASA, NOAA)
(ii) Fisheries Resources Information. National Marine Fisheries Service's Pacific Fisheries Envi-
ronmental Group collects information on climatic influences on the abundance of commercial and
marine fish species. (NOAA)
(iii) Global Ocean Color/Temperature. Development of a global ocean-color data base from the
Coastal Zone Color Scanner provides a map of patterns of ocean primary producer resources. The
next generation (SeaWIFS) is being planned for 1991. AVHRR data are used to determine surface
temperature patterns. (NASA, NOAA)
(iv) Ocean Instrumentation. In situ instrumentation for continuous monitoring of vertical structure
and variability of primary producers via fluorometric and optical arrays has been developed and
deployed. In situ acoustic sampling for planktonic consumer populations is in the early-development
stage. Work is continuing on laser and passive optical techniques and multi-frequency acoustic
technology to measure biota distributions in real time. (ONR, NASA, DOE, NSF)
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THE PLAN: ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS AND DYNAMICS
(v) Long-Term Ecological Observations. A series of 17 sites in representative ecosystems with
long-term records of data collection are supported by NSF to undertake programs of long-term
observation and experimentation on basic ecological phenomena. At several of the Long-Term
Ecological Research (LTER) sites, satellite observational capabilities are being integrated into the
programs. Over 30 years of basic environmental data at five DOE National Environmental Parks
provide a baseline for determining fluctuations and trends in naturally and artificially stressed eco-
systems. The USDA Forest Service operates 83 experimental forests and rangelands and 200 re-
search natural areas throughout the United States, from the tropics to the Arctic, many with over 50
years of data. Ocean ecosystem long time series exist for plankton of the North Atlantic, the Califor-
nia Current Ecosystem, fishery catch statistics, and microbial populations (autotrophs and heterotro-
phs). (NSF, NOAA, DOE, USDA)
(vi) Soils Data. The USDA Soil Conservation Service (SCS) is participating in development of
global soils maps. A state-level digital spatial data base is being developed to provide information
on influences of climate dynamics on soil processes and soil distribution. SCS also is assisting
development of a worldwide map of soils degradation as a consequence of changing climate, mis-
management, and other factors. International archives are at the International Soil Resource Infor-
mation Centre (ISRIC) in Wageningen, The Netherlands. Assistance will continue with the Interna-
tional Reference Base for Soil Classification, a global land degradation inventory (GLASOD), and a
global effort to develop a new world soil map. (USDA)
(vii) Worldwide Agricultural Yield. The World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) represents a
network of cooperating agencies that provide estimates of agricultural production in real time on the
basis of environmental data from a number of sources. (USDA)
(viii) Advanced Instrumentation. Instrumentation is being developed to measure plant evapo-
transpiration of water vapor and other atmospheric gases over large areas (NASA, NSF). Acoustic
tomography technology is being adapted to determine in situ root system properties of plants.
(DOE)
(ix) Large-Scale Change Detection. Procedures have been developed that are sensitive to changes
in vegetation density as measured by several parameters. These systems are based on coupling
remotely sensed data and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to provide a quantitative analysis
of differential changes in spectral values through time (e.g., seasonal, annual). (NASA, DOE,
USDA)
(x) Ecosystem Data. Ecosystem data are available from a variety of different ecosystems (e.g.,
shrub-steppe in western North America), providing baseline knowledge of processes controlling
energy and material fluxes (including emissions of some "greenhouse" gases). (DOE, NSF)
(xi) Antarctic Monitoring Sites. Development of two sites for long-term ecological research in the
Antarctic is underway in regions that are believed to be vulnerable to pronounced climatic or envi-
ronmental change. (NSF)
Weaknesses in Current Observational Programs and High Priority
Research Needs
(i) Ecological Resource Characterization. Long-term measurements are not sufficient for clearly
demonstrating the changes in ecological characteristics at all levels (organisms, ecosystems, biomes,
etc.).
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THE PLAN: ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS AND DYNAMICS
(a) Singular variables, such as UV-B irradiance (which may have significant effects on living
organisms), are not being monitored on adequate geographic scales of measurement. The net-
work of monitoring and research sites is minimal and much less than is needed to provide a basis
for prediction.
(b) Insufficient data are available on long time periods on the structure, dynamics, genetics, and
habitat associations of terrestrial animal and plant populations. This situation is equally true for
marine ecosystems.
(c) Sampling marine animals to high taxonomic resolution and on appropriate temporal and
spatial scales coupled with relevant physical processes is required. In very few systems do we
have adequate assessment methodologies for monitoring the distribution and abundance of major
animal groups in the sea.
Appropriate sampling and monitoring activities must be developed in order to observe critical
changes in the structure of globally relevant biological systems on time scales appropriate for adap-
tation or mitigation.
(ii) Coordination of Data Management. Coordination of ecological (including soils) data manage-
ment among agencies presently is incomplete. Development of mechanisms and protocols to sup-
port a national, and eventually a global, network for ecological data management is needed.
(a) Procedures and computer capability must be developed to a level compatible with needs of
the global change program.
(b) Remote sensing data pose special problems. Systematic satellite observations at the finer
spatial scales of the Landsat and SPOT sensors are required. While a historical data base has
been preserved and archived, there is no systematic program of continuing observations. Fur-
thermore, analysis of existing data has been limited.
Data management and coordination for the entire Global Change Research Program are discussed
extensively in a later section of this report.
(iii) Interpretation of Remotely Sensed Data. Not enough is known about the biological determi-
nants of reflected, emitted, and backscattered radiation by vegetation to gain maximum ecological
interpretation from remotely sensed data.
(a) New, high spectral resolution remote sensing techniques show promise of estimating canopy
chemical composition parameters that can be used to elucidate ecosystem properties. Basic
understanding and wider validation of this approach are needed.
(b) Alternative methods for large-scale land cover mapping and inventory of ecosystems, which
rely on passive microwave sensors, show promise. These methods need to be validated and
extended.
FY 1990 Agency Initiatives and/or Augmentations (Observations)
(i) Earth Observations. The NASA budget will be augmented for the development of remote
sensing instrumentation for polar-orbiting satellites and the space station in low-inclination orbit and
an advanced information system for the Earth Observing System (Eos) (NASA, European Space
Agency [ESA], and Japanese Space Agency [JSA]). Eos will monitor many parameters that are
58
THE PLAN: ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS AND DYNAMICS
indicators of the state and extent of terrestrial and ocean ecological systems, including surface
temperature, albedo, surface humidity, primary productivity, surface radiation, leaf area, vegetation
type and condition, net primary production, soil moisture, pigment and phytoplankton concentration
in open and coastal oceans, surface topography (drainage patterns), and landscape patterns. (Ad-
dresses weaknesses ii[a] and [b], and iii[a] and [b]; NASA: FY89=$2.6M, FY90=$3.8M.)
Improving the Understanding of Ecological Processes
Strengths of Current Understanding
(i) Effects of CO2, Air Pollutants and Climate on Ecological Processes. Experimental research is
providing information about effects of stressors acting singly on plant physiology, ecosystem struc-
ture and function, plant/animal interactions, and water balance/hydrology. (DOE, EPA, USDA,
NSF)
(ii) Water Quality Effects Research. Research on biological response to changes in water quality
includes a wide range of ecosystems (wetlands, the Great Lakes, coastal waters, forested watersheds,
and, with respect to hazards, deep ocean disposal) and focuses on risk characterization and assess-
ment, often in conjunction with biotic response studies. (EPA, NOAA, USDA)
(iii) Toxic Substance (including pesticides) Effects. Process and ecosystem-level research on the
transport, transformation, and effects of toxic substances, including pesticides, supports modeling,
risk assessment, and integrated environmental assessments. (EPA, USGS, USDA)
(iv) Basic Research in Ecology. Ongoing programs support research in ecology, ecosystems dy-
namics, population biology, biological oceanography, and polar biology that contributes fundamen-
tal knowledge on ecological processes and their response to climate and other forcing functions.
(NSF, EPA, DOE, DOI, NOAA, USDA, NASA)
(v) Ecosystem Reconstruction and Species Management. The Forest Service and Agricultural
Research Service (USDA) and National Park Service (NPS) conduct research on developing man-
agement options to maintain, correct, and mitigate changes in the structure and function of ecosys-
tems in response to natural and anthropogenically caused change. A similar base of research is
ongoing for species populations, e.g., NOAA programs. (USDA, DOI, NOAA)
(vi) Marine Ecosystems. Long-term research has developed relationships between light, tempera-
ture, nutrients, species, and productivity that can be related to ocean color as measured by satellite
sensors. (NSF, NASA, NOAA, ONR, DOE).
(vii) Research in Conservation and Restoration Ecology. A special solicitation for proposals deal-
ing with fundamental research that underlies conservation and restoration of biological diversity will
be made in FY1990. Appropriate topics will include ecosystems, communities and populations, as
well as physiological, genetic and behavioral processes. The competition will also include research
on the effects of social and economic factors on restoration and conservation practices. (NSF)
Weaknesses in Current Understanding and High Priority Research Needs
(i) Fundamental Knowledge of Ecosystem Processes. Understanding of how species, ecological
communities, managed ecosystems, and natural ecosystems (terrestrial, aquatic, and marine) respond
to climate is inadequate to interface with and use regional climate information. Both laboratory and
59
THE PLAN: ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS AND DYNAMICS
field research are required.
(a) Especially critical are large-scale, long-term manipulative experiments involving entire
ecosystems. These are necessary for developing and eventually validating ecosystem models.
(b) Another critical research area concerns species interactions, including responses to patho-
gens and insect outbreaks that often are controlled by climatic variables.
(c) Research is needed to identify elements of biodiversity in terrestrial and marine ecosystems
that are most sensitive to change ("indicator" species role), factors affecting the ability of species
to adapt, potential methods to maintain biodiversity in the face of change, and the role of bio-
diversity in ecosystem function.
(d) There is an inadequate basis with which to assess the effects of climate and other external
changes on species and ecosystems, particularly when multiple environmental factors change
simultaneously (e.g., the combined effects of elevated CO2, varying temperature, and moisture
stress on plant processes or the influence of upland processes on coastal marine ecosystems).
(e) Understanding is needed of interactions between physical and biological processes at differ-
ent time/space scales and how the large-scale interactions cascade to influence processes down to
the microscale (e.g., temperature and ocean circulation effects on biogeography and dispersal;
eddy motions on food availability and recruitment; turbulence effects on feeding and reproduc-
tive behavior).
(f) There is insufficient understanding of the importance of episodic, storm-scale events and the
timing of these events on population variability and ecosystem functioning. Effects may occur
on primary production, reproduction, events at critical life-history stages, or successional proc-
esses, etc.
(g) The effects of changes of sea level on successional patterns of plants and animals in estuar-
ies and wetlands are unknown. These effects may have consequences on other marine resources
well beyond habitats affected directly.
(ii) UV-B Effects Research. Laboratory and field experimentation is needed on effects of UV-B
irradiance at the Earth's surface to determine for crop, marine, forest, and other ecosystems: (1)
biochemical, physiological, anatomical, morphological, and phenological responses; (2) mechanistic
bases for response; (3) ranges of sensitivity for cultivars and other species; and (4) mechanisms
controlling resistance to effects and possible genetic controls.
(iii) Soil Processes. Short and mid-term temporal changes in soil properties related to wind and
water erosion, change of cropping or land use, and response to natural and anthropogenic change are
poorly understood. Likewise, the influence of soil properties and their distribution spatially is poorly
documented and understood. The SCS/USDA has extensive data on tropical and subtropical soil
profiles in addition to pedons in the United States.
(iv) Remote Measurement Technology. The technology available to measure ecological processes
and gaseous emissions from ecological systems remotely is inadequate. Especially required are
measurements at appropriate spatial and temporal scales to facilitate modeling of coupled systems
(e.g., atmosphere-biosphere).
(v) Scaling Ecological Parameters. There is a continuing need to press the development of ways of
60
THE PLAN: ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS AND DYNAMICS
extrapolating ecological information from local to regional to global scales of reference. Similar
questions of scale arise in matching biological process models with models of physical processes.
FY 1990 Agency Initiatives and/or Augmentations (Understanding)
(i) Basic Plant UV-B Interactions. Basic research will be conducted to determine the mechanisms
of plant response to enhanced UV-B radiation expected from depletion of the ozone layer. (Ad-
dresses weakness ii; USDA: FY 89=$4.4, FY90=$7.8M.)
(ii) Research at the Land-Sea Interface. To stimulate the basic interdisciplinary research necessary
to determine how many types of land-sea interfaces (e.g., estuaries, salt marshes) act as integrated
ecosystems rather than simply boundaries. Activities include the quantification of the flux of materi-
als and their transformations through these margin ecosystems and how this contributes to productiv-
ity of coastal oceans and nursery grounds of important marine populations. (Addresses weakness i;
EPA: FY89=$0, FY90=$0.2M.)
(iii) Terrestrial Ecosystem Research. EPA will conduct basic research on the interactions between
climate and ecosystems, both managed and unmanaged. Studies will be conducted at several levels
of biological organization: (1) individual-physiological effects of CO2, temperature, and moisture
stress; (2) population-reproduction mortality, competition, etc., as affected by climate; (3) commu-
nity-relationship of climate and species distribution patterns, biodiversity, etc.; (4) ecosystem-
climate effects on productivity, disturbances, succession, etc.; and (6) biotic regions-climatic
factors controlling distribution of major biomes of North America. Long-term ecological records
and paleoecological data also will be used to understand the impact of global climatic change on
ecosystems. This initiative also contributes to an understanding of Earth System history. DOE will
develop and augment field instrumentation and conduct research on the combined effects of CO2 and
climate on vegetation. (Addresses weaknesses i[a] to [f]; EPA: FY89=$7.4M, FY90=$12.0M;
DOE: FY89=$0, FY90=$2.3M.)
(iv) Earth Observing System. The development of instrumentation and the initiation of interdiscipli-
nary observational, analytical, and theoretical studies for the Earth Observing System (Eos) (NASA,
ESA, JSA) to improve understanding of the biotic and abiotic factors controlling such ecological
processes as productivity, phytoplankton blooms, evapotranspiration, nutrient cycling, population
and community dynamics, and vegetation succession. Eos data will provide data crucial for scaling
(i.e., interpolating) ecological information from small to large spatial and temporal scales. (Ad-
dresses weaknesses i[e], iv, and v; NASA: FY89=$1.2M, FY90=$1.9M.)
Developing Predictive Models
Strengths of Current Models
(i) Theory in Biological/Physical Systems. A modest amount of ongoing research is being done to
strengthen and expand the theoretical underpinning for complex ecological systems, thereby provid-
ing better definition for modeling and experimental design, including experimentation and modeling
across varying space and time scales. (DOE, NSF, USDA)
(ii) Biosphere-GCM Linkages. Results from simple biosphere models linked to GCMs demonstrate
the importance of interactive linking between the atmosphere and the land, because more realistic
values of fluxes and more realistic patterns and amounts of rainfall are achieved. (NASA, NSF,
DOE)
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THE PLAN: ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS AND DYNAMICS
(iii) Crop Simulation Models. Agricultural Research Service (ARS), Soil Conservation Service
(SCS), and DOE are supporting development of computer models to simulate plant physiological
processes, growth, and yield. Both climatic factors and carbon dioxide concentration are treated as
explicit variables. (DOE, USDA)
(iv) Crop Management Models. ARS and SCS have developed computerized agricultural decision
support models to aid farmers in making choices about allocation of resources such as irrigation,
fertilization, and other management factors pertinent to sustaining agricultural production in a
changing environment. (USDA)
(v) Forest Models. The USDA Forest Service has proposed a long-range forest resource manage-
ment program that will incorporate: (1) physiologically-based models to predict effects of climate
change on forest species; (2) models of yield and linkages to physiological processes; and (3) models
of economic impact and risk assessment. (USDA)
(vi) Ocean Physical Models. Basin-scale, eddy-resolving community models, as well as larger-
scale coupled global ocean/atmosphere models, are now being run on supercomputers. This work is
an essential precursor in order to incorporate biological model components in basin and global-scale
models. (NASA, NOAA, NSF)
Weaknesses in Current Models and High Priority Research Needs
(i) Theory and Model Development. Two areas where model development is especially limited by
inadequate theoretical constructs are: (a) ocean biology, and (b) soil formation.
(a) Theoretical constructs and mathematical simulations that couple atmospheric and ocean
physics to population dynamics and the structure of ocean ecosystems are needed. The same
need exists for atmosphere/terrestrial physical and biological systems.
(b) The concepts of how and when soils form and their stability under varying conditions are
generally known only qualitatively. There is a need for soil process research leading to models
of soil formation that explain temporal and spatial variability and predict short- and long-term
responses to global change.
(ii) Linked Ecological and Physical Models. In order to develop predictive ecological models,
appropriately linked ecological-physical models must be developed.
(a) Regional air pollution models such as EPA's Regional Oxidant Models (ROM) and Regional
Acid Deposition Model (RADM) need to be linked to biotic response models.
(b) Our understanding of the physical environments at small spatial scales relevant to the geo-
graphic distribution of terrestrial and marine species and their behavior and life-history ecology
is inadequate. Analytical methods and numerical modeling of small-scale physical processes
relevant to spatial patchiness of plant and animal population are needed.
(c) Models are needed that couple species population-community-ecosystem models with
physiological process models for simulation of the response of ecosystems to rapid, large-scale
changes in environmental factors.
(d) Theory and models of the interaction of ecology at the landscape to biome scale and meso-
climate to regional climate need to be developed.
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THE PLAN: ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS AND DYNAMICS
(e) Modeling the variability and heritability of biological traits is poorly developed; likewise, the
adaptability of species and populations, especially to rapid changes, is not well understood.
(iii) Prediction of Changes in Ecosystems and Natural Resources. Requirements for improved
predictive capability include:
(a) Methods and models to provide integrated assessment and prediction of yield of agricultural
and forestry commodities (at both macro- and micro-economic scales) in the likelihood of a more
variable climate in the future. While data may be available, analysis and model development are
limited because resource, input use, management practice, and economic data are not linked.
(b) Models that simulate population, community, and ecosystem behavior, incorporate process
understanding, and run over long time scales (centuries to millennia) are required in order to
develop understanding of the feedbacks that ecosystem change will have on the physical and
chemical environment.
(c) Model accuracy and precision are generally unknown. There is a continuing need to develop
methods to evaluate model uncertainty and sensitivity-both for scientific prediction and use in
the decision process.
(d) There is a shortage of biological oceanographers; systems, landscape, community, and
population ecologists; and other biological scientists trained in numerical modeling, use of
supercomputers, and ecological theory.
FY 1990 Agency Initiatives and/or Augmentations (Models)
(i) Interdisciplinary Modeling. Investigations associated with the Earth Observing System (Eos)
have been initiated to utilize Eos and complementary data to improve the current predictive capabili-
ties for such phenomena as ecosystem distribution, extent, and condition; nutrient cycling rates and
fluxes, vegetation succession pathways, ecosystem energy balance, and water routing through
ecosystems. Eos modeling activities will lead to more realistic mechanistic, linked, hierarchial
models capable of operating at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. (Addresses weaknesses ii[c]
and [d], and iii[b] and [c]; NASA: FY89=$0.5M, FY90=$0.7M.)
(ii) Theoretical Ecology. The theoretical ecology program at DOE is being developed to guide
experiments and modeling in terrestrial environments. Of particular concern are theoretical consid-
erations and descriptive functions governing atmosphere/landscape boundaries and the dynamics of
particularly sensitive habitats, such as deserts and arctic regions. (Addresses weaknesses i, ii[a] and
[b], iii[b] and [c]; DOE: FY89=$1.2M, FY90=$2.0M.)
(iii) Models of Ecology-Climate Interactions. Research will be conducted on the development of
integrated models that link landscape-scale ecology and regional climate. (Addresses weakness
ii[d]; EPA: FY89=$0, FY90=$0.5M)
(iv) Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Terrestrial Ecosystems. Research will be conducted to
develop a predictive capability for estimating the potential effects of climate change on terrestrial
ecosystems, both managed and unmanaged. Activities will include determining the sensitivity of
natural resources to climate change and the effects of rapid climatic change on ecosystems, develop-
ing mesoscale models of forest ecosystem dynamics, analyzing how biogenic emissions are influ-
enced by climate, and estimating the effects of global change on biodiversity. (Addresses weak-
nesses ii[a] to [d]; EPA: FY89=$0, FY90=$0.5M)
63
THE PLAN: EARTH SYSTEM HISTORY
Earth System History
The Earth's geologic record provides a valuable source of information about past changes in
climate, ecosystems, hydrologic conditions, and landscapes. The evidence of major variations in sea
level, lake and ground water levels, extent of glacier ice and sea ice, changes in atmospheric compo-
sition, and dramatic changes in ecosystems in the past provide us with important insights into what
the future may hold. The record of the past indicates that natural variability of the Earth's climate
occurs over both short (decades to centuries) and long (millennia to millions of years) time periods.
The natural variability of the Earth's climate can be deduced using a number of environmental
indicators, including tree rings, glacier ice cores, fossils in terrestrial and marine sediment cores,
annual layers in corals, geomorphic features, and sediment characteristics. Information about the
causes, rates, and consequences of climate change can be extracted from the geologic record. Paleo-
climatic data can also be used, within limitations, to test the ability of climate models to "predict"
effects and dynamics of past climates. Paleoclimate data can thus improve the capability of models
to predict future climate change.
glacier
ice
cores
Ice field
glacier ice cores
Ancient
ancient
groundwater
moraines
fluctuations
Ancient
Shorelines
Flood history,
Paleohydrology
marine
Lake
08*30
sediments
Peat
Ancient
Shorelines
1Bog
Lake sediment
Peat
cores
Ancient
cores
marine
dunes
sediment cores
Figure 6. Schematic representation of some of the sources of paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental
records preserved in the geologic record.
The Earth System History element of the U.S. Global Change Research Program addresses
several questions that are central to the problem of understanding global change. These are:
(1) What is the degree of natural variability in the global climate and environmental systems? In
order to more fully discern the effects of human activity on global climate and environments,
it is essential to improve understanding of natural variability of climate. The history of
climate and environmental change is preserved in the Earth's geologic record. It behooves us
to read the record and learn from it.
64
THE PLAN: EARTH SYSTEM HISTORY
(2) What are the consequences of global change? The geologic record provides us with a rich
source of information about the effects of past changes in climate and environments on short
to long time scales, of local to global significance, and ranging from gradual changes to
rapid, even catastrophic, rates of change. Our ability to anticipate future consequences of
global change should be improved by examination of the evidence of past events and their
consequences.
(3) What are the causes of global change? The geologic record of the past contains evidence that
can be used to improve our understanding of the causes of climate change and other aspects
of environmental change that act on short to long time scales.
(4) How can we test the predictions of the general circulation models and mesoscale climate
models? The geologic record provides data about past global conditions that can be used to
test "predictions" of the models based on past boundary conditions.
In order to understand global change from the perspective of the geologic record, it is neces-
sary to develop three research components for this element: (1) long-term observations, (2) under-
standing Earth system history, and (3) developing predictive models.
Long-Term Observations. Reconstructing the history of Earth's climates and environments on
both short and long time scales (decades to millions of years) provides an understanding of the full
range of behavior of the global system and how it responds to change. It also provides a base line
against which to measure future changes in climate and environments.
Understanding Earth System History. Research into past climate changes and environments
provides insights into the rates of change under natural conditions, the consequences of climate
change on the environment, and the natural variability of climate. It also provides evidence useful
for understanding the causes of climate change.
Developing Predictive Models. Research on Earth system history contributes an important means
of testing and improving general circulation models and mesoscale climate models. Compilations of
paleo-environmental data can be used to develop synoptic reconstructions of past global environ-
ments for testing models.
Global-Scale, Long-Term Observations of Earth System History
Strengths of Current Observational Programs
(i) History of the Oceans. Methods have been developed to quantitatively describe physical (e.g.,
temperature) and chemical (e.g., carbon dioxide and nutrient) parameters of the oceans in the past.
Methods include use of oxygen isotope variations in fossil foraminifers through time as an indicator
of past temperature changes in the oceans, and use of fossil assemblages as paleo-environmental
indicators. Current methodologies permit reconstruction of past ocean surface and deep water
conditions on a global scale, on time scales of millennia to millions of years. Changes in sea levels
and volumes of glacier ice can be approximated for the late Cenozoic. (NSF, USGS)
(ii) Indicators of Past Climate Conditions. Methods have been developed to use environmental
indicators such as pollen and freshwater diatom and ostracode assemblages, tree rings, annual layers
65
THE PLAN: EARTH SYSTEM HISTORY
causes of climate change, particularly on time scales of tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands
of years. Predictable variations in the orbital parameters of the Earth are now recognized as a sig-
nificant forcing influence on the Earth's climate.
Weaknesses in Current Understanding and High Priority Research Needs
(i) Ocean Chemistry of the Past. Paleoenvironmental indicators of some aspects of ocean chemistry
(e.g., alkalinity) are poorly developed. High priority should be given to efforts to improve abilities
to reconstruct past ocean chemistry and other oceanographic parameters.
(ii) Record Dating Capabilities. Dating terrestrial records beyond the limit of radiocarbon dating
(ca. 40,000 yrs) is difficult, and there are also problems with chronological control of marine rec-
ords. Methods other than radiocarbon dating need to be developed and perfected if possible; several
approaches show promise (e.g., thermoluminescence dating and strontium isotope dating).
(iii) Ice Core/Trace Gases. The extent of melting in glacier ice and the effects of melting on gas
concentrations in ice cores has not been adequately addressed. Priority should be given to research
focusing on this problem.
(iv) Linkages Between Oceanic, Atmospheric, and Lithospheric Processes. Linkages of processes
between different elements of the Earth system are in many cases poorly understood. Comparisons
between aeolian components (e.g., desert dust and volcanic ash) in glacier ice cores and nearby
sediment cores should be analyzed to provide a sound stratigraphic correlation between the two
types of records. This will improve understanding of linkages between the major Earth systems.
(v) Climate-Geological Processes Relationships. Relationships between climate variation and rates
and intensity of geologic processes in arid and semi-arid environments are poorly understood.
Desert and semi-desert environments are likely to change in extent and character as a result of
climate change. Priority should be given to research and monitoring efforts that focus on desert
processes and climates of the past and present.
(vi) Ecosystem-Climate Relationships. How ecosystems and environments respond to climate
change is inadequately understood, limiting ability to fully anticipate responses to future climate
change. High priority should be given to examining evidence in the geologic record for the type,
rate, and frequency of climate changes and the environmental responses to those changes. Research
should be carried out on a variety of time scales, from decades to millions of years.
(vii) Abrupt Climate Change. Detailed global or regional records of rapid climatic events are
inadequate. Projections of future global change include unprecedented rapid warming. There are
analogs of abrupt climate change in the geological record (e.g., Younger Dryas, Little Ice Age), but
we have insufficient understanding of their causes and of the interactions and response of the climate
system to these rapid events.
(viii) Ice Coring Capabilities. A more complete analysis of climate and the history of atmospheric
composition requires obtaining glacier ice cores from all possible latitudes where glaciers exist. Ice
cores provide many types of paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental data. Greater resources should
be devoted to expanding the U.S. research and development effort to improve ice coring methods to
obtain longer ice cores and provide high resolution analysis of glacier ice cores from all possible
latitudes
68
THE PLAN: EARTH SYSTEM HISTORY
FY 1990 Agency Initiatives and/or Augmentations (Understanding)
(i) Sediment Coring Project. A terrestrial sediment-coring project utilizing mechanical core drilling
methods will be initiated in FY 1990 by the USGS Climate Change Program. The initial geographic
focus of the drilling project will be high latitude North America. The objective is to obtain long,
continuous-as-possible records of climatic and environmental changes from high latitude spanning
intervals up to several millions of years. This project will be conducted jointly with the Geological
Survey of Canada. (Addresses weaknesses vi and vii; USGS: FY89=$0, FY90=$0.3M.)
(ii) Changes in Earth History. Under the new element at NSF, Changes in Earth History, the geo-
logic record will be used to help understand past environmental changes of global scope and the
processes that govern environmental change. (Addresses weaknesses vi and vii; NSF: FY89=$0,
FY90=$0.7M.)
(iii) The Second Greenland Ice Sheet Project (GISP II). NSF will increase emphasis on the recov-
ery of paleoclimate and atmospheric chemistry data in ice cores from Greenland. (Addresses weak-
nesses iv and viii; NSF: FY89=$2.0M, FY90=$4.0M.)
(iv) Paleohydrology Studies of the Great Basin and Southwest. The USGS Water Resources Divi-
sion (WRD) will increase emphasis on paleohydrologic studies of the Great Basin and Southwest to
reconstruct paleoclimates (with an emphasis on pluvial lakes) of the late Pleistocene and Holocene
and groundwater flow histories as preserved in calcite deposits in arid basins. (Addresses weak-
nesses V and vi; USGS: FY89=$0.3M, FY90=$0.5M.)
(v) High Resolution Paleoceanographic and Paleoclimatic Records. USGS Climate Change Pro-
gram Geologic Division (GD) will begin a new research effort aimed at obtaining high-resolution
records of paleoceanographic and paleoclimatic history preserved in corals, which are particularly
well-suited for studies of climatic variability over time spans of several centuries, but with an annual
temporal resolution comparable to tree rings. (Addresses weaknesses i and iv; USGS: FY89=$0,
FY90=$0.3M.)
(vi) Paleoceanographic Conditions from Marine Sediments. New research aimed at improved
understanding of paleoceanographic conditions from evidence preserved in marine sediment cores
will be supported by the USGS Climate Change Program in FY 1990. (Addresseses weakness i, iv,
V and vi; USGS: FY89=$0, FY90=$0.4M.)
Developing Predictive Models
Strengths of Current Models
(i) Global Circulation Models. Experience shows that paleoenvironmental data sets provide a
valuable means of testing and improving global circulation models. Paleoclimate data, particularly
for the past (ca. 25,000 years) have been compiled over the past several decades, providing an
important foundation upon which to build future global-scale synoptic reconstructions for model
testing.
69
THE PLAN: EARTH SYSTEM HISTORY
Weaknesses in Current Models and High Priority Research Needs
(i) Paleoclimate Data. Most existing paleoclimate data sets focus on the past 25,000 years or less of
Earth history. Data sets for earlier periods must be developed to provide suitable analogs for sub-
stantial global warming in order to test the predictive powers of climate models.
(ii) Ice-Flow Models. Glacier ice-flow models are currently inadequate to provide accurate chro-
nologies for ice cores. Development of improved ice-flow models is an important priority to en-
hance results of ice-core paleoclimate studies.
(iii) Climate Models. Current climate models generally agree that the climate change is likely to be
most dramatic at high latitudes. The models differ substantially on the magnitude and regional
distribution of climate change at high latitudes. A high priority for research is refinement of the
climate models to reduce the range of uncertainty in the predictions of high latitude climate change.
Coupled with this is the need to acquire additional paleoclimate data sets from high latitudes (both
marine and non-marine), on a variety of time scales (centuries to millions of years) to help resolve
differences between climate model predictions.
(iv) Global Circulation Models. The ability of current GCMs to reproduce rapid changes in the
state of the climate system has not been adequately tested. Geological records of rapid change in
climate are not sufficiently detailed to provide initial conditions for the models or to test the model
results.
(v) Soil Formation Models. Models of soil formation and their distribution remain qualitative rather
than predictive and quantitative. The linkages would provide a means to integrate soil cover with
other global data sets.
FY 1990 Agency Initiatives and/or Augmentations (Models)
(i) Analogs for Predicted Future Global Warming. The USGS will expand research aimed at devel-
oping a synoptic reconstruction of a significantly warmer-than-present interval during the Pliocene
(2.6 to 3.0 million years ago). This will be an augmentation of the USGS Climate Change Program.
Pliocene warm intervals should provide important analogs for global warming of the magnitude
predicted for the next century. The Pliocene paleoclimate data will be used to develop a variation of
an existing General Circulation Model in cooperation with one of the modeling research centers.
(Addresses weaknesses i and iii; USGS: FY89=$0.8M, FY90=$1.1M.)
70
THE PLAN: HUMAN INTERACTIONS
Human Interactions
Human activity is a critical element in global change both in terms of initiating processes of
change in the environment and altering ongoing processes. Fundamental research on the human
dimensions of global environmental change is necessary to understand patterns of (1) direct human
action or impact on the environment, and (2) the indirect structural and institutional causes of change
in the Earth system, including such factors as economic markets, national legal and regulatory
systems, and social and economic aspirations in developing nations.
Research on anthropogenic forces in global change will provide the necessary scientific
foundation for public policy studies to be conducted outside the global change research initiative.
These policy studies may address the response of human institutions to global change in terms of
both mitigation strategies and processes of adaptation.
Most environmental problems are directly caused by human action or are exacerbated by
human activities. Included among these are the following:
"Greenhouse" Warming. Increasing atmospheric gas concentrations resulting from human
population settlements, fossil fuel consumption, agricultural practices, and industrial emis-
sions.
Acid Deposition. Acidification of soil and water supplies resulting from atmospheric pollu-
tion by industry and fossil fuel consumption.
I'll lead with
industrialization
then follow with urbanization,
And I'll counter with
deforestation, and greater
warmer temperatures, rising
use of fossil fuels!
sea levels, increasing ultra-violet
radiation, and decreasing
biodiversity!
Because
of my diverse
regulations, market
structures, political
systems, life styles,
and abilities to apply
technology, I surprise
myself with the
combinations that
I throw.
Figure 7. Representation of the impact of human activities on the global environment.
71
THE PLAN: HUMAN INTERACTIONS
Deforestation. Human removal of forests in temperate regions over the past 2,000 years and
contemporary conversion of tropical forests to other land uses.
Biodiversity. Displacement and possible loss of plant and animal species through agricultural
and urban expansion.
Erosion. Removal of fertile topsoil by water and wind throughout the world by agricultural
practices and settlement patterns.
Understanding the role of human dimensions in global environmental change requires funda-
mental research on human social, economic, and institutional behavior. The research task has three
components: (1) data base development, (2) understanding processes of change, and (3) modeling
processes of human interactions with the environment.
Data Base Development. Empirical research on the human dimensions of global change will be
dependent upon the establishment of comparable, cross-national data bases that are maintained over
long periods of time. These data bases should encompass human activities such as land use prac-
tices, fossil fuel consumption, and industrial emissions. There should also be data bases that track
changes in public attitudes and perceptions of risk in the environment and data on population distri-
bution and consumption patterns. The discussion of monitoring systems here focuses on data collec-
tion within the United States. An important set of tasks at the present time consists of identifying
comparable data bases in other nations, standardizing measurement instruments, and developing
cross-national models that link human activities and environmental change.
Understanding Processes of Change. As suggested in Figure 7, research on processes of change
should deal with both direct human action and indirect social, structural, and institutional influences
on global change. Among the very important indirect influences are legal and regulatory systems
that foster particular types of environmental behaviors, economic markets and pricing practices that
can encourage or discourage environmentally sound behaviors, and international trade and invest-
ment policies. Past and present patterns of industrial production and transportation and the enduring
chemical residues of both must also be understood. Cultural differences in institutions and behavior
and culturally influenced responses to global change and environmental risk should be better under-
stood.
Modeling Processes of Human Interactions with the Environment. Ultimately, social and
economic data and understandings of (1) processes of social and economic change, (2) environmen-
tally significant human action, and (3) human elements in physical and biological processes of
global change must be integrated in predictive models. Such models, operating under the assump-
tion of similar conditions, will link past patterns of behavior with scenarios for the future. At the
present time, current trends cannot be projected reliably into the future for two reasons. First, the
pace and nature of environmentally critical human activities are not well understood, and second,
these activities change over time, in part as a result of efforts to moderate the human impacts of
global change.
The following sections provide information on the strengths and weaknesses of current
research on the human interactions in global change and discuss research that will be supported
under the U.S. Global Change Research Program in its FY 1990 increment. Research described
below is intended to provide a scientific understanding of the role of human interactions in global
change. It is not intended to develop policies for dealing with global change.
72
THE PLAN: HUMAN INTERACTIONS
Global-Scale, Long-Term Observations of Human Interactions
Strengths of Current Observational Programs
(i) Maps and Digitized Spatial Data. National map and digital data on basic land surface informa-
tion are available; population and economic data from the 1990 census will be integrated into these
maps and made available in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) format in the early 1990s.
(USGS, Census) Increasingly sophisticated GIS capability is available for the integration of demo-
graphic, economic, physical, and biological elements in space. (NSF)
(ii) Land Use Data. Continuous photographic data on land use in the United States are available
from the 1930s to the present (USGS); historic satellite data and recent field, aircraft, and satellite
data are available to examine the influence of demographic pressures on deserts and tropical forests.
(NASA); Periodic inventories of land use and condition are obtained by site visits for most U.S.
lands. (USDA)
(iii) Survey Data. Annual surveys are conducted of public attitudes and perceptions that can be used
to provide data on public responses to environmental changes. (NSF)
(iv) Data on Natural Processes Affected by Human Action. Data on water quality, acid deposition,
tropical deforestation, and desertification show the combined effects of natural and anthropogenic
causes of change. Estimates of the spatial-temporal relationship between acid precursor emissions
and acid deposition have been developed. (USGS, NASA, EPA, DOE)
(v) Data on Energy Transformations. Data are assembled on energy production and use, and data
for global fossil fuel CO2 emissions by fuel type and region are available over the period 1966 to the
present. Data on the emission of non-fossil fuel "greenhouse" gases (CO2, CH4, N₂O) and from
human activities such as agriculture, land-use change, energy production and use, and manufacturing
are also available for individual years. (DOE, EPA)
(vi) Chlorofluorocarbon Data. Estimates of chlorofluorocarbon production by country are avail-
able. (DOE)
Weaknesses in Current Observational Programs and High Priority
Research Needs
(i) Data Collection and Standardization. More environmental questions should be included in
ongoing surveys. New surveys of environmental perceptions and behaviors in the United States,
standardized with social surveys in other nations, are needed. Long-term comparable, cross-national
data bases that combine institutional and governmental responses to global change must be estab-
lished.
(ii) Methodological Research. National level data, mostly based on samples of the population, must
be reconciled with non-sampling data to provide complete coverage of small areas. A framework
that permits analysis to move between large samples and small areal data bases is needed.
(iii) Land Use and "Greenhouse" Gases. The effects of human behavior on the environment must
be examined for long time periods to improve the measurement and prediction of the production of
73
THE PLAN: HUMAN INTERACTIONS
"greenhouse" gases. Most data on land use practices and demographic impacts on land use are
recent and only available for short time periods. To make accurate estimates of the cumulative
effects of land use on the production of "greenhouse" gases, data on historical patterns of land use in
specifically defined areas are essential. Parallel data sets with information on land use patterns in
other parts of the world must be identified.
(iv) Other Gases. Measurements of fossil fuel CO2 do not yet provide adequate information regard-
ing the uses to which energy is put outside the United States. Uncertainty surrounding current
estimates of emissions from non-fossil fuel CO2 is unacceptably great. Measurements of the escape
rate of cholorofluorocarbons into the atmosphere are inadequate. Emissions data on a number of
radiatively important trace gases, especially CH₄ and N₂O, for a number of industrial and agricultural
sources are inadequate.
(v) Human Influences on Ecosystem Change. Anthropogenic causes of ecosystem changes must be
disentangled to the extent possible from natural causes of change, as reflected in a wide spectrum of
data, e.g., data on water quality, acid deposition, deforestation, and desertification.
(vi) Agricultural Links to Resource Availability and Quality. Crop production decisions, input use,
and cropping practices must be linked to dates on resource availability and quality. For example,
explicit linkages between data on crop production and practices and agroclimate zones, water availa-
bility and water quality must be made.
FY 1990 Agency Initiatives and/or Augmentations (Observations)
(i) Land Surface Data Systems. Provide for permanent archiving, management, access, and distribu-
tion of land Earth-science data sets for global change research on the interaction between human
activities and environmental processes. This includes transfer of remotely sensed data (e.g., Land-
sat) to stable storage media, archive of selected USGS data sets for global change, and access to land
data maintained by other Federal agencies. (Addresses weaknesses i to v; USGS: FY89=$0,
FY90=$1.5M. [This new $1.5M initiative will replace a $0.5M research program to yield a budget
augmentation of $1.0M.])
(ii) Improvement of Social Data Systems. Data resources dealing with individual and institutional
actions affecting environmental changes, including research on measurement and methodological
issues, must be improved. Collection instruments for international data bases on the social and
economic dimensions of global environmental change must be standardized. (Addresses weak-
nesses i and ii; NSF: FY90 reprogramming=$0.2M.).
Improving the Understanding of Human Interactions
Strengths of Current Understanding
(i) Fundamental Social Research. Research on anthropogenic causes of Earth system processes is
directly dependent on a strong research base of fundamental understandings of demographic, social,
economic, and political behavior and processes. (NSF)
(ii) Strengths of Demographic Research. Demographic pressures-the sheer size of the human
population and its distribution-are a major cause of global change. Demographers can predict
74
THE PLAN: HUMAN INTERACTIONS
population growth and the effects of migration and changing age distributions in the population with
great accuracy. (NIH, NSF)
(iii) Research on Risk Perception and Communication. Response to global environmental change is
directly related to individual and societal attitudes to risks. Risk perception and risk aversion vary
by individual and across social groups. A growing body of research is assessing the relationship
between the way risks are communicated to the public and subsequent behavior, including receptiv-
ity to change. (NSF, EPA)
(iv) Regulatory Studies. Valuable research is being conducted on the effects of regulation on eco-
nomic behavior and market performance. In addition, studies exist of the role of regulation in
changing certain types of human behavior. (NSF)
(v) Land Surface and Geographic Processes. Research is conducted on the interactions between
human activities and natural processes by inventorying vegetation and land-use changes and deter-
mining environmental impacts. This research involves integrating remotely sensed data and Earth-
science data for applications such as vegetation monitoring as an indicator of cultural impacts.
(USGS, NASA, USDA)
(vi) Information on Emissions of Gases. Demographic studies can be used to estimate future emis-
sions of radiatively active trace gases. Moreover, preliminary data and information exist on the
relationships between human activities and emissions of "greenhouse" gases. (EPA)
Weaknesses in Current Understanding and High Priority Research Needs
(i) Identification of the Ways That Human Activities Affect Global Change. Research should focus
both on specific types of human activities responsible for global change and on the interrelationships
among these activities. This would include research on such topics as the relationships between
economic growth, energy efficiency, and land use changes. It would also include research on the
connections between human activities and emissions of natural and industrial origin.
(ii) Multiple Threats to the Environment. Research is needed on interacting physical, natural, and
human causes of environmental transformation or "syndromes" of environmental change, such as
threats to forests posed by changes in land allocation and forestry practices, climate, and atmospheric
chemistry. Studies of anthropogenic processes of change in the environment have focused on the
impacts of individual behaviors (such as fossil fuel consumption) or on particular environmental
problems (like deforestation or acid deposition). This narrow problem-by-problem formulation must
be augmented by integrated research on the broad spectrum of the causes of environmental changes.
This should also include research on the environmental consequences of contemporary patterns of
national and regional social and economic development, political and regulatory responses to global
change, and cultural differences in environmental degradation.
(iii) Human Health Effects of Global Change. Global climate change will affect disease patterns
and pest infestations. Increased UV-B exposure will seriously affect human health, behavior, and
food supplies. Research is also needed on behavioral aspects of health in a changing global climate.
This would examine the connections between individual and public recognition of the consequences
of dangerous behaviors and between government regulation and changes in behavior.
75
THE PLAN: HUMAN INTERACTIONS
(iv) Environmental Risk. Although there has been a great deal of research on this topic, most of it
has not dealt with issues related to global change. Research is needed on cultural and institutional
influences on risk aversion and on reactions to uncertainly in the environment. In particular, little
systematic research has been done on the response to large-scale, high-consequence events such as
global change, climate change, or specific events like oil spills.
(v) Human Effects on Water Resources. Research is needed on processes by which human activities
affect water resources, including changes in ambient water quality, groundwater levels, coastlines,
and estuaries.
(vi) Legal Issues. Research is needed on the effects of national and international laws and agree-
ments on environmental change and on the relationship between governmental controls and market
mechanisms in environmental degradation. Research is also needed on the implementation of
regulatory policies and national and international compliance.
(vii) Trade and Investment Practices. There is a need for research on the nature of trade and invest-
ment practices in global change and their influence in both developed and developing countries.
Similarly, the relationship between national and international commodity pricing regimes and debt
repayment rules and national agricultural, forestry, and water policies should be examined.
FY 1990 Agency Initiatives and/or Augmentations (Understanding)
Basic Social and Behavioral Science Research. Fundamental research on the relationships among
global environmental change and human activities, including social, economic, political, legal, and
institutional processes. (Addresses weaknesses i, ii, and vi; NSF: FY90 reprogramming=$1.0M.)
Developing Predictive Models
Strengths of Current Models
(i) Research Conducted During the Energy Crisis. The energy crisis of the early 1970s stimulated a
great deal of research on fossil fuel consumption. It provided a research base on means of changing
consumption patterns (e.g., the importance of shifts in economic incentives and disincentives to
behavioral change). At that time, scenarios for anticipated changes in supply and demand of energy
sources also were developed. (DOE, EPA)
(ii) Research on Economic Markets and the Environment. There is a body of research on the dy-
namics of economic markets. Economic markets can be an efficient means of allocating resources
when prices reflect all costs. But since current market mechanisms do not systematically consider
environmental costs, they tend to promote behaviors that exacerbate global change, such as the
excessive use of fossil fuels. Both national and international markets are distorted by government
interventions reflecting national, but not necessarily environmental, interests. (NSF)
(iii) "Greenhouse" Gas Models. A first-generation set of models to assess the relationship between
human activities and "greenhouse" gas emissions has been developed. (DOE)
(iv) Models of Current and Future Emissions. Models exist to estimate current and future United
States emissions of NOx, SOx, and volatile organic carbon and particulate matter to a relatively high
degree of spatial and temporal resolution. These can also be used to estimate CO and CO2 emissions
in the United States. (EPA)
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THE PLAN: HUMAN INTERACTIONS
(v) Models for Understanding Human Interactions in Global Change. Population, energy, agricul-
ture, forestry, and economic models relevant to global change are available. These can be used to
help anticipate changes in international trade, market areas, service centers, settlement patterns,
transportation systems, and the uses of energy and water resources caused by climate-induced shifts
in agricultural zones. (NSF, USDA, DOE)
Weaknesses in Current Models and High Priority Research Needs
(i) Long-Term Models of Human Dimensions of Global Change. Credible models for long-term
changes in human activities that affect environmental change and, conversely, models of the effects
of long-term environmental changes on human activities must be developed.
(ii) Economic Forecasting in the Medium Term. Economic forecasters now possess the technical
and computational tools for developing the medium-term models (5 to 10 years) needed for the study
of global change on these time scales. The achievement of the requisite reliability in forecasting,
however, will entail a major program to eliminate existing gaps in the data and to resolve a range of
conceptual issues.
(iii) Population Models. Models of population migration and growth must be integrated with
agricultural production and economic development models to understand food and shelter needs
under conditions of shifting climate conditions.
(iv) Models Linking Local Activities to Global Change. Human activities undertaken in response to
local conditions can have an unforeseen global impact. Research is needed on the links of local and
regional activities to global change.
(v) Contrasts between Developed and Developing Countries. Models are needed of the effects of
regional economic and agricultural changes, particularly those caused by global environmental
change, on national economies. As part of this research, global models of resource and commodity
trading and an inventory of energy needs and potential for conservation are required.
(vi) Second Generation of Emissions Models. A second generation of models of "greenhouse"
gases and energy emissions is needed. These models should permit the analysis of the interaction of
human activities and explicit technological alternatives.
FY 1990 Agency Initiatives and/or Augmentations (Models)
(i) Models of Human Interactions in Global Change. Initial methodological and substantive re-
search to develop more sophisticated models of human and institutional interactions in global change
will be undertaken. (Addresses weaknesses i, ii, iii, iv, and v; NSF: FY90 reprogramming=$0.2M.)
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THE PLAN: SOLID EARTH PROCESSES
Solid Earth Processes
One of the tenets of the geological sciences is that the present is the key to the past. In the
context of global change, however, the present is the key both to deciphering the past geologic
record and to achieving a better understanding of those solid Earth processes that affect the life-
supporting characteristics of the global environment, especially those processes that are active at the
interfaces between the Earth's surface (subaerial and submarine) and the atmosphere, hydrosphere,
cryosphere, and biosphere. Such studies include: (1) subaerial and submarine effusive and explo-
sive volcanism, including emission of various radiatively important gases, as a contributor to and
perturbator of the composition of the atmosphere and the hydrosphere (oceans); (2) surficial and
near-surface processes that produce changes on the land, in the oceans, and in the atmosphere, such
as aeolian erosion, transport and deposition of sediment (including dust), and desertification (natural
and human-induced); (3) coastal erosion resulting from rising sea level, natural or human-induced
subsidence, and changes in volume of fluvial sediments transported to the oceans; and (4) changes in
the areal distribution and rheology of glaciers (in response to climate change) and the effect of the
neotectonic history of Antarctica on ice sheet growth and decay. Tectonic activity is included as it
relates to such processes as volcanism and near-surface or surface crustal deformation, which result
from the loading of the Earth's crust by glaciers.
i
orn
GASES
AEROSOLS
A
GASES
GASES
COASTAL EROSION&
INUNDATION
MGLACIER
C
PERMAFROST
VOLCANOES
PLATE BOUNDARY
GASES
H
L
VOLCANOES
Figure 8. Schematic representation of solid Earth processes active at various interfaces of the
geosphere: subaerial and submarine volcanism, coastal erosion and inundation, glaciers,
permafrost, and crustal motion. Elements of the geosphere are shown with letters: A,
atmosphere; C, cryosphere; H, hydrosphere; and L, lithosphere.
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THE PLAN: SOLID EARTH PROCESSES
In the context of the U.S. Global Change Research Program, six geologic processes have
been initially determined to be most important in causing changes or resulting from changes in one
or more elements of the geosphere and biosphere:
Volcanism. Subaerial and submarine explosive and/or effusive volcanism that emits a
variety of radiatively important gases that contribute to or perturb the composition of the
atmosphere and the hydrosphere (oceans).
Coastal Erosion and Inundation. Resulting from rising sea level, natural or human-induced
subsidence, or changes in volume of fluvial sediments transported to the oceans.
Glacier fluctuation. Changes in the area, volume, and rheology of glacier ice on land (in
response to climate change) and, also, the effect of the neotectonic history of the land on ice
sheet growth and decay.
Permanently Frozen Ground (Permafrost). Changes in the areal extent of discontinuous and
continuous permafrost and release of radiatively important gases to the atmosphere as frozen
ground melts. Decomposition of marine gas hydrates also will release radiatively important
gases to the ocean and atmosphere.
Surficial Processes. The erosion, transport, and deposition of sediment, resulting in such
events as dust storms and the process contributing to desertification.
Crustal Motion. Frequency and magnitude of earthquakes in populated areas and magnitude,
both past and present, of tectonic uplift or subsidence in coastal areas. These data are neces-
sary to establish local vs. global absolute sea level change.
In order to provide needed scientific input to policy decisions associated with global change,
three research components of key solid Earth processes must be understood: (1) Long-term observa-
tions, (2) processes studies, and (3) conceptual picture, models, and prediction.
Long-Term Observations. For most geologic processes relevant to global change, there is a very
great need to initiate new, as well as to continue, ongoing global observations from ground-based
observations and remote sensing platforms (airborne and/or satellite), so that reliable baselines for
key parameters can be established against which future (or past) changes can be compared. The
existing global network of observatories can record scientific data on only a small number of the
world's active land volcanos. Little data exist for the 80 percent of global volcanism that is under-
water. The global seismic network also needs to be expanded to cover areas not now covered by
seismological observatories. A seismic network will provide proxy data on volcanism on the 70
percent of the Earth surface covered by water. Long-term observatories need to be established on
submarine volcanos. The crustal dynamics project, with its network of very long baseline interfer-
ometry (VLBI), satellite laser ranging (SLR), and global positioning system (GPS) station network,
should continue to monitor plate motion and fault activity, and should be expanded to cover poten-
tially hazardous regions. The Landsat series of satellites must be continued, even during the Earth
Observing System (Eos) era, to provide a global record of changes in glacier area and changes in
coastal regions (shoreline position and configuration) over time.
Process Studies. The frequency, magnitude, and geographic occurrence of explosive volcanism
need to be better understood using the historic and geologic record (see the section on Earth System
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THE PLAN: SOLID EARTH PROCESSES
History). Studies must include the nature of the eruptive products, their resident time in the atmos-
phere, and their effects on climate (see the section on Climate and Hydrologic Systems). Submarine
volcanism and its effect on the chemical and mass balance of the oceans, especially processes active
on mid-ocean ridges, need to be understood better. The globe circling ocean ridge system contrib-
utes a flux of heat, volatiles, fluids, and particulates into the ocean. These contributions may well
influence ocean circulation, chemistry and the CO2 budget. Acoustic imaging systems, use of data
from sea-beam technology for precise bathymetric contour maps, and direct observation and sam-
pling by manned and unmanned submersibles can provide some of the needed data.
Coastal erosion and inundation studies need to be broadened and conducted in association
with calibrated tide-gauge investigations, like the Global Positioning System (GPS) and Very Long
Baseline Interferometry (VLBI), to correlate sea level rise with erosion and inundation. Considera-
bly more effort needs to be directed at achieving a better understanding of the Greenland and antarc-
tic ice sheets, which contain 99.3 percent of the world's volume of glacier ice. Of particular impor-
tance is the long-term stability of the West Antarctic ice sheet because its disintegration would cause
a rise of 6-8 meters in sea level. (See the section on Climate and Hydrologic Systems.)
Landsat images, future satellite altimetry (laser and radar), and airborne radio-echosounding
surveys are needed for studies of changes in the area and volume of theantarctic and Greenland ice
sheets. Permafrost is particularly sensitive to climate warming. In addition to expanding field and
theoretical studies of the effect of climate warming on temperature profiles in permafrost, studies of
gas release from melting permafrost are needed (see the section on Biogeochemical Dynamics). An
expanded network of digital seismometers for the Global Seismic Network is needed to advance our
knowledge of data, origin time, location, depth, and magnitude of earthquakes on a global basis and
provide proxy indicators of submarine volcanism. High-quality GPS data need to be acquired for a
variety of crustal motion studies.
Conceptual Picture, Models, and Prediction. In 1815 the explosive eruption of the Tambora vol-
cano in Indonesia depressed the global mean annual temperature by several degrees C. for several
years. The ash fall also destroyed crops and deposited new soil material. The impact of a similar
eruption on modern agricultural production in temperate and high latitude growing areas would be
severe. Volcanologists need to work with climate modelers (see the section on Climate and Hydro-
logic Systems) to develop global circulation models that can accurately predict the consequences of
a large explosive volcanic eruption on global climate. Moreover, submarine volcanic eruptions,
emanations, and hydrothermal circulation affect the chemical mass balance of the oceans.
Interactive models also need to be developed that relate global climate warming to changes in
volume of glacier ice which, in turn, lead to changes in volume of the ocean component of the
hydrosphere. The magnitude and rate of sea level changes during the next several decades to centu-
ries must be predicted to enable the critical economic decisions related to erosion and inundation of
low-lying coastal regions and the impact on property and structures. Better models of crustal defor-
mation are needed to achieve the goal of predicting time, location, and magnitude of earthquakes and
uplift or depression of land in heavily populated regions because of the economic consequences of
such events.
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THE PLAN: SOLID EARTH PROCESSES
Global-Scale, Long-Term Observations of Solid Earth Processes
Strengths of Current Observational Programs
(i) Volcanism. Global observation of subaerial volcanic activity, both explosive and effusive, is
performed by a network of ground observers. Meteorological satellites and total ozone measuring
satellites (TOMS) have been used to monitor the dispersal into the troposphere and stratosphere of
tephra, gases, and aerosols from explosive volcanic activity. Landsat-type satellites record new
patterns of tephra deposition on land and new areas of lava flows.
(ii) Coastal Erosion and Inundation. Approximately 70 percent of the easily erodible coasts of the
continents is known to be eroding. Research projects to study coastal erosion and inundation in
response to rising sea level are underway in several coastal areas.
(iii) Permafrost. The distribution of continuous and discontinuous permafrost in the Arctic is
relatively well known.
(iv) Crustal Motion. A global seismic network (GSN) measures and monitors earthquake activity.
Global positioning system (GPS) receivers are available to make use of the DOD NAVSTAR satel-
lite constellation. GPS and other geodetic techniques measure global tectonic movements, thereby
providing direct confirmation and measurement of processes associated with plate tectonics. The
measurements also contribute to earthquake and volcanic eruption predictions.
Weaknesses in Current Observational Programs and High Priority
Research Needs
(i) Volcanism. It has been estimated that 80% of the Earth's volcanic activity is submarine. The
magnitude, frequency, geographic distribution, quality, and character of eruptive products and
emissions from submarine volcanos is poorly known. A major improvement in our knowledge of
the geographic distribution, magnitude, and frequency of submarine volcanic activity is needed. A
systematic survey program of the ocean floor with acoustic imaging systems, beginning with the
mid-ocean ridges, is required as the first step. We know that a significant but undetermined quantity
of heat and materials are transmitted to the ocean from the solid Earth via the global ocean ridge
crest system, which must have important, but as yet unquantified, effects on the role of ocean circu-
lation, heat transport, ocean ecosystems and ocean/atmosphere interactions controlling climate. The
RIDGE program (whose planning has been supported by NSF, NOAA, USGS and ONR) has devel-
oped a science plan to address these issues.
(ii) Coastal Erosion and Inundation. A Landsat-type global observing system is needed to docu-
ment areal changes in barrier islands, wet lands, and low-lying coastal areas on a global basis,
especially in heavily populated regions most susceptible to rising sea levels related to melting of
glacier ice. A long-term record of coastal change at key coasts must be compiled to provide baseline
information against which future change can be measured.
(iii) Permafrost. The rate of retreat of the edge of discontinuous permafrost is not well known. The
reduction in area of discontinuous permafrost is related to climate warming; hence, a network of
observatory boreholes in cold continuous permafrost and monitoring of areal change in discontinu-
ous permafrost are needed to assess the impact of global climate warming in the Arctic.
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THE PLAN: SOLID EARTH PROCESSES
(iv) Crustal Motion. The number of stations in the GSN is insufficient to cover the Earth ade-
quately and monitor it with the precision necessary for understanding active crustal processes.
Numbers of GPS instruments are insufficient to meet scientific demands for the monitoring such
instruments provide; all of the plate boundaries, active faults, and volcanos that should be monitored
to truly define global tectonic change. Seismicity is the harbinger of volcanic activity on land and a
proxy indicator of volcanism on the sea floor. No accurate global geoid model exists; a model could
be constructed from satellite gravity measurements.
FY 1990 Agency Initiatives and/or Augmentations (Observations)
(i) Land Surface Data Systems. The USGS plans to provide archiving, management, access, and
distribution of land Earth science data sets for global change research applied to the study of solid
Earth processes. (Addresses weaknesses i to iv; USGS: FY89=$0, FY90=$0.3M [This new $0.3M
initiative will replace a $0.25M research program to yield a net budget augmentation of $0.05M].)
(ii) Land Surface Processes. The Earth Observing System (Eos) is specifically designed to observe
the solid Earth and will be deployed in the late 1990s. (Addresses weaknesses i to iv; NASA:
FY89=$0.9M, FY90=1.4M.)
Improving the Understanding of Solid Earth Processes
Strengths of Current Understanding
(i) Volcanism. The species of gases and types of aerosols associated with explosive and effusive
volcanism are being investigated at many volcanos (see the section on Biogeochemical Dynamics).
Submarine volcanic emanations and hydrothermal circulation are also being studied.
(ii) Coastal Erosion and Inundation. Geological processes associated with coastal erosion, deposi-
tion, and inundation, including areas undergoing subsidence or uplift, are under intensive study to
determine future impact in coastal areas yet to be seriously affected by rising sea level.
(iii) Permafrost. The occurrence of permafrost and the conditions (past and present) under which it
forms is relatively well known.
(iv) Crustal Motion. Deformation of the Earth's crust along plate boundaries is being intensively
investigated with modern technology (e.g., EDM devices, VLBI, GPS, etc.). The magnitude, rate,
and frequency of motion is important to determine. NOAA operates a number of World Data Cen-
ters, in cooperation with the International Union of Geology and Geophysics, which archive global
data on solid Earth processes. NASA carries out long-term observations in support of solid Earth
studies, including laser ranging and very-long baseline interferometry (VLBI) and GPS measure-
ments, to determine crustal movements and sea level change. NASA also performs satellite gravity
and magnetometer field measurements associated with solid Earth processes and provides support in
data management of global change data for solid Earth studies, including the crustal dynamics data
information system and the pilot land data system (PLDS).
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THE PLAN: SOLID EARTH PROCESSES
Weaknesses in Current Understanding and High Priority Research Needs
(i) Volcanism. The volume of the various species of volcanic gases and aerosols entering the atmos-
phere and oceans on an annual basis is unknown. A much intensified research effort to better under-
stand mid-ocean ridge volcanic processes is needed, including the unrestricted use of acoustic
bathymetric imaging systems and sea-beam technology and increased use of submersibles (manned
and unmanned) to make in situ observations and measurements and to collect samples. Long-term
sampling of volcanic tephra, gases, and aerosols in the stratosphere is also needed to establish persis-
tence (resident time) of such materials in the stratosphere and how particulate size and composition
change with time following a major explosive volcanic event. (See the sections on Biogeochemical
Dynamics and Climate and Hydrologic Systems.)
(ii) Coastal Erosion and Inundation. Additional studies of coastal areas most vulnerable to the rise
in sea level are needed to better understand all the geological processes that influence the rate of
inundation, the pedological processes associated with wetland loss, and coastal erosion. This is a
high priority research need because of the potential environmental and economic impact of rising sea
level on many of the heavily populated coastal regions.
(iii) Glacier Fluctuation. The neotectonic history of Antarctica may have exerted a powerful
influence on ice sheet growth and decay; the extent and time scale of this process is totally unknown.
Airborne and satellite remote sensing technology, existing or in development by NASA, can provide
the tools to acquire the needed data. Major knowledge gaps involve a lack of understanding of the
mechanism(s) involved when glaciers surge (rapid advance) and of the physics of fast-flow regimes
(ice streams).
(iv) Permafrost. An increase in studies in permafrost regions is necessary to determine regional
response to global warming and the contribution of newly released "greenhouse" gases to the atmos-
phere as permanently frozen ground melts. Gas hydrates in the ocean may also significantly contrib-
ute "greenhouse" gases to the ocean and atmosphere, yet little is known about their distribution,
chemistry, and kinematics.
(v) Crustal Motion. Expanded research to improve our understanding of active tectonics is needed,
as is unrestricted access to new technology, including the most accurate GPS data required for
precise geodetic measurements of horizontal and vertical movements of land masses. Also needed
are the most accurate GSN data for precise measurement of earthquakes and earthquake-related
phenomena.
FY 1990 Agency Initiatives and/or Augmentations (Understanding)
(i) Crustal Motion. The NSF supports the Global Seismic Network (IRIS), the use of GPS (UN-
AVCO) for high-precision geodetic measurements of crustal motion, and a broad program of re-
search on crustal dynamics. (Addresses weakness v; NSF: FY89=$4.5M, FY90=$4.8M.)
(ii) Land Surface Data Systems. The USGS plans to provide archiving, management, access, and
distribution of land Earth science data sets for global change research applied to the study of solid
Earth processes. (Addresses weaknesses i to iv; USGS: FY89=$0, FY90=$0.3M. [This new $0.3M
initiative will replace a $0.25M research program to yield a net budget augmentation of $0.05M].)
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THE PLAN: SOLID EARTH PROCESSES
(iii) Land Surface Processes. The Earth Observing System (Eos) is specifically designed to study a
variety of solid Earth processes and will be deployed in the late 1990s. (Addresses weaknesses i to
iii; NASA: FY89=$0.9M, FY90=$1.3M.)
Developing Predictive Models
Strengths of Current Models
(i) Volcanism. A long-term study of volcanic activity is being carried out by teams of interdiscipli-
nary scientists at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory and Cascades Volcano Observatory. Some
predictive capability has been achieved in the cases of effusive volcanism in Hawaii and activity at
Mount St. Helens. The science of volcanic eruption prediction is more mature than that of earth-
quake prediction.
(ii) Permafrost/Ice. Some progress has been made in developing models of expected temperature
profiles in permafrost areas and in polar lake ice.
(iii) Crustal Motion. Long-term records of global seismicity have provided better initial under-
standing of the tectonics of plate boundaries, including associated volcanism.
Weaknesses in Current Models and High Priority Research Needs
(i) Volcanism. It is not yet possible to predict the magnitude of explosive volcanism or the precise
timing of eruptions from infrequently active volcanos. Long-term observations of selected volcanos
known to have historic record of explosive activity are required to provide the data needed to con-
struct models of explosive volcanism. Models that can predict the atmospheric and oceanic impact
of large explosive and effusive volcanic events (subaerial and submarine) also need to be refined.
(ii) Coastal Erosion and Inundation. Accurate topographic and pedologic models (maps) of coasts
with barrier islands and other low-lying coastal areas must be developed to be able to predict the
inundation and erosion of such areas in response to rising sea level.
(iii) Permafrost. Better models are needed to show the coupling of atmospheric warming to ex-
pected subsurface temperature profiles especially in polar areas.
(iv) Crustal Motion. The present state of seismological knowledge is insufficient to be able to
develop models which can accurately forecast either the time or magnitude of earthquakes along
plate boundaries.
FY 1990 Agency Initiatives and/or Augmentations (Models)
Coastal Erosions and Inundations. Topographic models of micro-relief in coastal regions are
needed to predict the impact of rising sea level in such areas. NASA will acquire Eos data to meas-
ure topography. (Addresses weakness ii; NASA: FY89=$0.4, FY90=$0.6M.)
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THE PLAN: SOLAR INFLUENCES
Solar Influences
The sun is now observed to be a variable star. Space and ground-based measurements have
demonstrated solar luminosity variations of about 0.1 percent in association with solar activity. The
most well-known, explainable climatic variations, the Ice Ages, were caused by small variations in
the solar forcing of the terrestrial atmosphere. Thus the single most important solar problem in
global change is the observation of solar variability and activity and the understanding of the effect
of these on the chemistry and dynamics of the terrestrial atmosphere.
A good understanding of the mechanisms relating solar activity and climate is important in
helping to properly evaluate the contribution due to "greenhouse" gases. In addition, such under-
standing will help in appreciating the type of climatic anomalies (like the 17th century Little Ice
Age) that can be expected in the 21st century, whether or not "greenhouse" gases are controlled.
Of almost equal importance is the lack of knowledge on solar spectral irradiance variations.
The properties of the atmosphere above 100 km are determined to a great extent by highly variable
solar EUV radiations with wavelengths of less than 120 nm. An understanding of this layer is
important because it controls satellite lifetimes; clearly, this has commercial, security, and scientific
significance.
Some components of the energy incident on the upper atmosphere exhibit relative variations
much larger than that of the total irradiance, as much as 10,000 percent over a solar cycle. These
short wavelength photonic and energetic charged particle fluxes are associated with solar, and thus
geomagnetic, activity, and principally affect regions of the atmosphere above 70 km in altitude.
There they drive variations in temperature, density, dynamics, chemistry, ionization, etc. Radio
communications are significantly affected by these energy input fluctuations. The amount of influ-
ence propagating from thermosphere to troposphere and the mechanisms of propagation-the
teleconnections-are poorly understood.
Figure 9. The Sun-Earth relations: Solar output, orbital characteristics, and the Earth as a receptor.
85
THE PLAN: SOLAR INFLUENCES
(ii) Variability in Solar Irradiance. The solar irradiance variation is now established, and its con-
nection to solar activity is understood in principle. Short term activity (days) reduces the irradiance,
while the inverse is true over the longer term (years). Thus the "Maunder Minimum," a period of
decreased activity in the 17th century, would be associated with lower irradiance and, therefore,
reasonably connected to the "Little Ice Age" experienced in northern Europe. (NASA, NSF)
(iii) Solar Cycle Influence on the Atmosphere. Recent discoveries have been made connecting the
solar activity cycle (11 years), the internal period of the atmosphere (2 years), and several atmos-
pheric parameters (stratospheric temperatures, surface temperatures, etc.). This work has already
been used to assist long range winter weather forecasts (NOAA, NWS) and to forecast polar strato-
spheric temperature. The latter is relevant to the antarctic ozone "hole." (NASA, NOAA, NSF)
(iv) Drought-Solar Relationships. Twenty-two-year (solar) and 18.6 year (lunar) signals are both
observed in a number of Drought Area Index Series. Both have been implicated in separate kinds of
climatic forcing of western U.S. droughts. (NOAA, NSF)
(v) Solar Activity Influence on the Paleoclimate Record. The carbon-14 (14C) record, which is so
important to all kinds of paleoclimate studies, is now beginning to be understood. The 11-year
cyclic ¹⁴C record is made "noisy" by solar-flare-produced 14C excesses at solar maximum when
cosmic-ray-induced 14C is at a minimum. This work is important to understanding radionuclide
production and its relation to climate trends (e.g., ¹⁰Be, ¹⁴C, etc., from ice cores). (NSF)
Weaknesses in Current Understanding and High Priority Research Needs
(i) Time Scale Uncertainties. A faint sun paradox notes that solar luminosity has increased by 25
percent over aeons while the atmosphere/ocean system has remained stable or declined in tempera-
ture. Conversely, over similar periods glacial advance was apparently triggered by small changes
(0.1 percent) in solar inputs. Clearly, processes are operating on the longer time scales that are
fundamental and yet are not understood. Their elucidation will assist the understanding on shorter
time scales. It is possible that changes in atmospheric composition can compensate for these solar
changes.
(ii) The Nature of the Earth's Electrical Field. Many processes in the atmosphere are electrical in
nature, and yet scientists have only a rudimentary grasp of the global electric field and its response to
internal (thunderstorm) and external (magnetosphere) forcing. Mechanisms relating the sun, cosmic
rays, the global electric field, and tropospheric processes have been proposed, but suffer from a
relative ignorance of middle atmosphere electrodynamics.
(iii) Solar-Terrestrial Relationships. Theoretical mechanisms relating solar inputs and terrestrial
responses are virtually nonexistent.
(iv) Energy Coupling to the Atmosphere. The linkage of all forms of energy from the sun to the
Earth involves processes not yet understood. In particular the connection between geospace/upper
atmosphere/troposphere is not well understood. The NSF Coupled Energetics and Dynamics of
Atmospheric Regions (CEDAR) program and the Geospace Environment Modeling (GEM) program
are designed to overcome some of these deficiencies.
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THE PLAN: SOLAR INFLUENCES
(v) Solar Particle Influence on Atmospheric Composition. There is now evidence that snow in
Antarctica retains a chemical record (nitrates) induced by particle precipitation. This is due in part
to ionization induced in the auroral zone and in part to solar particles. Clearly, the chemistry of
nitrogen and oxygen must now include particle inputs, at least in polar regions.
FY 1990 Agency Initiatives and/or Augmentations (Understanding)
(i) Coupled Energetics and Dynamics of Atmospheric Regions (CEDAR). The NSF Global Geos-
cience Program will emphasize the study of the linkages of solar energy between geospace and the
lower mesosphere by coordinated field campaigns using new and upgraded optical and radar equip-
ment for remote sensing of the upper atmosphere. These studies will be carried out via the CEDAR
initiative of NSF. (Addresses weakness iv; NSF: FY89=$0.7M, FY90=$1.9M.)
(ii) Solar-Terrestrial Interactions. DOE will support geosciences research on solar-terrestrial-
atmospheric interactions and how this may force global changes in the environment. (Addresses
weakness iii; DOE: FY89=$1.0M, FY90=$1.2M)
Developing Predictive Models
Strengths of Current Models
(i) Theoretical Models of the Upper Atmosphere. Rudimentary models of the ionosphere, thermo-
sphere, and magnetosphere exist and can generate simulations of these systems from first principles.
Thus, a basic understanding of coupling from the sun (solar wind) to the atmosphere (troposphere)
can be attempted. (NASA, NOAA, NSF)
(ii) Computational Equipment and Capabilities. Advances in supercomputing capability, network-
ing, and numerical techniques have permitted rapid improvement in the sophistication of the models.
NSF, in particular, is making major investments in upgrading the National Supercomputer Centers
and the interconnecting high speed networks. Faster supercomputers will be acquired, and backbone
communication rates will advance from about 1.5 to 50 megabits/second. This will be invaluable in
developing nonlinear 3-D models and facilitate handling of the massive data banks. This infrastruc-
ture will be important to such programs as CEDAR, GEM, and MAX91, where development and
testing of coupled, global convection models is expected. (NSF)
(iii) Upper Atmosphere Research Data base. Testing of models with real data requires highly
organized, centralized data centers covering all the appropriate parameters in a systematic fashion.
Such a data set has been started at NCAR with the Radar Data base and is expanding to include all of
CEDAR. This is facilitating much better model testing and integration of predictive Earth system
models. (NSF)
(iv) Solar Activity Research Capabilities. Solar activity will most probably be very high at the next
solar maximum (1991). NSF, NASA, and NOAA are collaborating in an observing program
(MAX91) to take advantage of this situation. NASA will provide instruments for a Japanese satellite
(SOLAR A). NSF will increase its ground-based observations. In particular, high-precision solar
photometry will be undertaken to elucidate the solar variability/irradiance/magnetic activity/UV
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THE PLAN: SOLAR INFLUENCES
emission relationship. Part of the rationale for this work includes the development of proxies for
radiations not seen at the ground. This will permit model testing (e.g., climate and photochemistry)
on a long-term retrospective basis (i.e., decades to centuries). (NASA, NOAA, NSF)
Weaknesses in Current Models and High Priority Research Needs
In order to predict the sun-atmosphere connection, a truly interactive model covering the sun,
solar wind, and the magnetosphere is needed. This is clearly a long way off, but short-term weak-
nesses and needs are outlined below.
(i) Solar and Solar Wind Models. Solar and solar wind models suitable for predicting the sun-
atmosphere connection do not exist. The field has just not advanced far enough, and further devel-
opment is needed.
(ii) Model Integration. The current models covering geospace/upper atmosphere/troposphere are
not interactive. Basically, each model takes the output of one to be the input of the other. This is
inadequate since the separate regions are known to be interactively coupled. The Air Force (AF) and
NOAA jointly are trying to improve model integration (magnetosphere/ionosphere/thermosphere)
for predictive purposes. AF and NASA have obvious operational needs that are not being met with
current systems; hence, more effort is needed. This work is relevant to upper atmosphere modeling
for satellite drag purposes and to spacecraft anomalies for commercial and security applications.
(iii) Model Scaling Issues. In common with many Earth system models, a problem exists in merg-
ing the different scale sizes. The models have to operate on a global scale, yet the internal processes
are microscopic (e.g., raindrop formation within a global climate model). This problem of merging
macro/micro properties infects all models. It requires better physics/chemistry, clever numerical
techniques, and larger, faster computers.
(iv) Three-Dimensional Models. Many of the models are currently attempting only one- or two-
dimensional simulations. Ultimately, for predictive purposes, fully three-dimensional, time depend-
ent, nonlinear models are needed. The techniques are largely known, but the task is enormous, and
more effort is needed in some cases.
FY 1990 Agency Initiatives and/or Augmentations (Models)
Fully predictive Sun-Earth modeling requires global standardized data sets covering as many
years as necessary in order to confront three-dimensional, nonlinear models installed on massive
supercomputers capable of handling the merging of the whole gamut of temporal and spatial scales
from micro to macro. Clearly, this does not exist; however, the augmentation outlined below will
make incremental progress toward this goal.
(i) Global Modeling of the Upper Atmosphere. The NSF Global Geoscience Program (CEDAR)
will develop global models of the upper atmosphere/ionosphere. NCAR will develop an integrated,
standardized data base. Approximately one third of the CEDAR effort will be aimed at this model-
ing objective. (Addresses weakness iii; NSF: FY89=$0.2M, FY90=$0.7M.)
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THE PLAN: DATA MANAGEMENT
Data Management
Success with the seven science elements will depend on the quality of data management
available to support the global change scientific community. At the center of a long-term program
for the study of global change must be the immediate development of a data management and infor-
mation system for global change research. Management of all global-scale data sets is beyond the
scope and resources of any single agency or country. It includes means and mechanisms to describe,
gather, transmit, validate, process, analyze, archive, model, and disseminate the interdisciplinary
data needed to understand the scientific interactions of Earth processes on a global scale.
An infrastructure for data management and information systems must be shared and used by
scientists and agencies performing research in all seven of the U.S. Global Change Research Pro-
gram science elements. The initial focus of such a system will, of necessity, be on (1) management
of global-scale, long-term data from observation systems, (2) organization of data sets to improve
understanding of global change processes, and (3) analyses and preparation of data sets for the
development and validation of predictive global change models.
Management of Global-Scale, Long-Term Data from Observation Systems. The dominant
problem facing scientists attempting to use global change data sets is that it is extremely difficult to
find who has what data and how good the data are. Once a research problem is decided on, tradi-
tional research begins with a review of the relevant literature to ascertain the thinking and experi-
ments of others on the topic. An analogous process for data (i.e., for scientists in the different
science elements to begin by also reviewing the data and information resources used by others on the
topic) is virtually impossible today. Once the architecture for an infrastructure for a data manage-
ment and information system is agreed upon, the essential precondition will be in place to improve
understanding of global change processes and to develop successful predictive models.
Ecological Systems
and Dynamics
Climate and Hydrologic
System
Biogeochemical
Global Change
Dynamics
Data and Information
Human Interactions
System
Earth System History
Solar Influences
Solid Earth Processes
Sharing Global Change Data and Information with
Scientists in All Science Elements
Figure 10. Data management for the U.S. Global Change Research Program.
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THE PLAN: DATA MANAGEMENT
Organization of Data Sets to Improve Understanding of Global Change Processes. Data sets at
global, regional, local, and micro scales will need to be assembled to understand global change
processes. Many of these will be built from the analysis and interpretation of existing and future
satellite data streams. Others will be pieced together from diverse sets of in situ observations and
measurements, initially using retrospective data, but augmented and completed with data collected in
the future specifically for this purpose. Earth scientists must work with data managers and computer
scientists to identify, construct, and disseminate these global-scale data sets that will best improve
the understanding of global change processes.
Analyses and Preparation of Data Sets for the Development and Validation of Predictive
Global Change Models. Three elements must interact for predictive modeling to succeed. Mod-
elers must be able to identify the data sets they need for their models at global, regional, local, and
micro scales. Observation systems must be able to collect the data needed by modelers. A shared
data management and information system must be able to act as intermediary to help reduce the data,
then catalog, store, and distribute the data and information products from both the observing systems
and the process modelers. There is an obvious need for users of data sets to inform the providers of
what they need, of the providers of data sets to inform the users about the attributes and quality of
the data, and of the data-management and information system to facilitate both. In short, the data
management and information system requires an end-to-end process with users and providers inter-
acting with each other by means of the shared system.
Raw data and derived products. Because of the interdisciplinary, long-term nature of global
change studies, most requests to the data management system are likely not to be for the raw
observational data themselves, but rather for derived products such as global analyses or
edited data collections in association with descriptive text or graphic material. Thus, the
system must be oriented to provide information rather than just data and must play a percep-
tive role in the generation, acquisition, quality control, and dissemination of such value-
added products. Scientists will require information in different forms and from different
information sources, depending on the context. Information form includes imagery, numeric
data, and text, and scientists will want to take advantage of increasingly modern technologies
such as hypermedia to integrate the diverse data sets.
Documentation of data. To be useful for global change studies, data and derived information
will normally need to have uncertainties less than what scientists determine to be "signifi-
cant." Sustained global measurements must result, on a routine basis, in analyzed fields of
well-defined accuracy, including the effects of instrument calibrations, coverage in space and
time, sampling, quality control and data editing, the algorithms used for data reduction, the
adequacy of ancillary data needed in those algorithms, the validation of those algorithms, the
assimilation or analysis procedures used, the availability of independent measurements for
spot checking the conclusions, and the documentation of all of the above. Without consistent
documentation, data sets have very limited value to those not familiar with their origins and
can easily be misapplied.
20-year test for data. To be useful for global change studies, data sets must pass the 20-year
test: Can our successors 20 years from now tell with confidence that the changes they ob-
serve are real rather than artifacts of some aspect of the measurement or analysis process?
The key is to collect data of sufficient precision and accuracy to support the investigations.
These requirements pose an enormous challenge to the way we approach research and re-
search support. For example, sea-surface temperature might be used as a measure of global
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THE PLAN: DATA MANAGEMENT
temperature. To assume that a 1-degree centigrade change in sea-surface temperature over
20 years is significant requires that the global sea-surface temperature data set must be
validated consistently for the period of record well within 1 degree (e.g., a few tenths of a
degree). Not only must the measurements be well within one degree, but the effects of
different measurement techniques, instrument calibrations, and analysis procedures must all
have been well within one degree. The 20-year test also requires that the data set cannot
have unresolvable gaps in space or in time. Such a sea-surface temperature data set does not
exist today.
Few well-documented global data sets exist. While the maximum tolerable uncertainty will
be different from variable to variable, and most have yet to be defined, only a very few
documented data sets exist today that fall within expected requirements. A case can be made
only for solar irradiance, carbon dioxide, surface-atmosphere pressure, and land-surface
characteristics.
Common infrastructure on data management is essential. In the absence of a common
infrastructure on data management and information systems, the immense diversity and
quantity of both raw and derived data generated by the sensor platforms and researchers'
computer workstations will overwhelm attempts to find, much less use and synthesize,
relevant data. A shared underlying framework of technological support, consistent across
agencies and that involves and supports the university and other user communities, provides
a viable and economical means to improve the returns on the nation's investment in global
change data collection and analysis. Existing facilities and skills can be used to the greatest
possible extent by linking with a common architecture such that directories, catalogs, and
inventories of data may be constructed and used by researchers in all global change science
elements. Each discipline or institution continuing to go its own way, building incompatible
and inaccessible data "systems," would stifle progress towards a useful national data system
for global change research.
Data management is complex, but vital to all global change science elements. To be useful, a
process must be put in place that will make it as easy as possible for scientists to use global
change data. Such a process, common to all of the global change science elements, is vital to
support studies within a science element and other studies that require data to be shared by
two or more of the science elements. The data management system must be able to accept
and store dissimilar types of data, collected from very different data collection systems, by
different organizations, in different formats, on different media. Then, the system must be
able to deliver the data economically to interested scientists in the United States and else-
where and assist in integrating and analyzing these data in a manner consistent with the
data's documented accuracy.
Synoptic data are needed. There is a need for spatially-analyzed 3-D vector fields of the
state variables of the system to describe the global system at any given point in time. These
are usually constructed with 2-D horizontal fields at discrete vertical intervals (height or
depth). These often are termed synoptic data.
Time-series data are needed. Time series (as long as possible) data of the state variables are
required to capture and understand the fluctuations of the global system. Time-series data
usually comprise either successive snapshots of synoptic fields at discrete time intervals or an
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THE PLAN: DATA MANAGEMENT
ensemble of scalar measurements of a parameter or index at a point in space representing a
limited 2- or 3-D zone around it.
Rate of change depends on parameter in question. Long-term time averages of either synop-
tic fields or time series of the state variables provide the relative mean state or the "reference
state" of the system. Departures from the relative mean state are often used to monitor
fluctuations of the global system and derive measures of the variability of the system.
Changes in the relative mean state and variability are commonly defined as "change." If the
time series were infinitely long, the relative mean state would be the absolute mean state and
thereby constant. Due to the complexity of the global system, a vast variety of space and
time scales are involved. The time frequency at which a state variable or parameter needs to
be sampled depends on the rate of change of the parameter in question and the relative errors
of measurement and could range from seconds (micro-physical processes) to days (atmos-
phere and weather) to seasons and years and decades (vegetation, ocean circulation), to
centuries and thousands of years.
Global, regional, local, micro, and proxy data are needed. The data sets required would
range in space scale from global to regional to in situ (local to micro), depending on use or
application. For example, monitoring, diagnostics, and predictive general-circulation models
generally require global data sets. These data are also needed for verification and validation
of global-system simulation models. Understanding and parameterizing small-scale proc-
esses require high-resolution data sets over limited space and time boundaries. Due to the
lack of instrumental records covering sufficiently long time periods, specialized analyses are
required of proxy records (tree rings, ice cores) to construct a picture of the prehistorical
global system and its fluctuations.
Data management requires institutional and international cooperation. For most global
change studies, global data and information will be required. No one nation, agency, or
institution will be able to gather the appropriate data without cooperation from other nations,
other agencies, and other institutions. Individual agencies will need the cooperation of others
to collect, manage, and preserve data sets systematically for global change and make them
accessible across the traditional discipline and agency boundaries.
Interagency response to the data management problem. The importance and complexity of
the data management challenge have already been recognized within the Federal agencies. In
1987, they formed the ad hoc Interagency Working Group on Data Management for Global
Change (IWGDMGC). Participating agencies (NASA, NOAA, NSF, USGS, and the Depart-
ments of Energy, Agriculture, Navy, and State) are being advised by the National Academy
of Sciences' Committee on Geophysical Data. Building on a core of existing national data
centers together with the university and international data groups, the IWGDMGC is coordi-
nating plans to establish a program for the management of data and information that will
support global change research.
Data management issues affect all science elements and all objectives. The initial thrust of
the data management program will need to be focused on monitoring and observation sys-
tems (due to the close links between data gathering and data management). But, data man-
agement issues also impact the ability of the research program to improve understanding of
global change processes and are integral to successful predictive modeling. Strengths and
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THE PLAN: DATA MANAGEMENT
weaknesses related to data management are not all identified below, although key topics that
span several science elements are concentrated in this section for emphasis.
Many data management issues are embedded in sections of this report covering the seven
interdisciplinary science elements. For example, references to several activities, and to programs
such as Eos (Earth Observing System), ISLSCP (International Satellite Land Surface Climatology
Project), TOGA (Tropical Oceans Global Atmosphere), and WOCE (World Ocean Circulation
Experiment) with important data management aspects pervade the science elements. (For this
reason, the dollar totals identified below for data management will not balance with budget estimates
for data management in Our Changing Planet: A U.S. Strategy for Global Change Research.)
Management of Global-Scale, Long-Term Data from Observation Systems
Strengths of Current Management of Global-Scale, Long-Term Data from Observation Systems
(i) Available Technology. Technologies (sensors, computers, telecommunications, data storage
media, electronic publication) exist that are capable of capturing, processing, preserving, distribut-
ing, and making accessible global-scale data sets.
(ii) Data Center Structure. The data centers that are most effective in management and use of
global-scale data sets are those where scientists actively participate with data managers.
(iii) Interagency Framework for Data Directory. Coordinated interagency activity is under way to
construct a data directory that describes global change data holdings (including long-term global-
scale data sets) of all participating agencies and academic institutions.
(iv) Some Data Sets. Well documented, long-term data are available for some, although few,
variables (e.g., carbon dioxide, solar irradiance, surface atmosphere pressure, and land-surface
characteristics).
(v) Arctic Environmental Data System. Experiments are being conducted, sponsored by the Inter-
agency Arctic Research Policy Committee (IARPC) in cooperation with the IWGDMGC, to use
arctic data sets and arctic mesoscale studies related to global change as a testbed for data manage-
ment concepts that might be useful in global change studies. The testbed approach for the Arctic
Environmental Data System (AEDS) not only helps arctic scientists immediately, but also provides a
creative environment for experimenting quickly with storage media, information distribution tech-
niques, links between scientific data and bibliographic information, and data directories.
Weaknesses in Current Management of Global-Scale, Long-Term Data from Observation Systems
and High Priority Research Needs
(i) Data Quality. Many data sets from present data systems lack credibility due to inconsistent
documentation (e.g., incomplete description of instrument calibrations, algorithms used for data
reduction, coverage in time and space, quality control, and data editing).
(ii) Nonuniform Data Management Procedures. The absence of established criteria or policies for
evaluating suitability of data sets for global change studies, for archiving and retaining data sets in
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THE PLAN: DATA MANAGEMENT
data centers or by project teams, and for purging data sets has impeded the construction, manage-
ment, and use of long-term, global-scale data sets from observing systems.
(iii) Nonuniform Technologies. While new technology is providing much-needed tools for manag-
ing our Nation's data, this technology is noticeably lacking in our Federal data centers. Technolo-
gies are not applied in a coordinated manner to the management of and access to global-scale data
sets.
(iv) Inadequate Infrastructure. While quantities of observational data will increase dramatically,
primarily from new satellite systems such as the Earth Observing System (Eos) but also from the
assembly of global-scale retrospective data sets, the data systems technologies and support infra-
structure are not yet in place to support scientific data analysis.
(v) Operational Data Sets. Many large data sets that might seem suitable for global change process
studies have been collected from operational systems (e.g., ocean navigation) and are not presently
suitable to support scientific studies.
(vi) Limited Global Data on Global Change. At present very few global data sets have been com-
piled and processed for the specific purpose of monitoring and detecting climate change. Most
scientific hypotheses are based on inadequate data sets. A substantial effort to collect and process
historical observations into global data sets will be required.
(vii) Calibration of Satellite Data. Despite 25 years of satellite observations, only a single satellite-
based data set is sufficiently well calibrated to document global change (from TOMS, the Total
Ozone Mapping Spectrometer). A substantial back-processing effort will be required to construct
such data sets and to provide time continuity when they are used with future Eos observations.
(viii) Inadequate Resources for Data Management. Many data centers suffer from diminishing
resources and attention, even while demand for data by scientists increases. Quality control suffers
as reduced funds are applied to the operational needs of archiving and distribution.
(ix) Data Management Structures. Comprehensive data centers and data-exchange standards, are
completely lacking for certain disciplines, including biology and ecology.
(x) Coordination. While some agency initiatives or augmentations for studies of global change do
contain resources for data management, they are too diffuse and lack coordination. At present,
separate agency budget submissions force funding for data management to reduce resources avail-
able for science.
(xi) Global Information System Test Capability. Lack of global information system test capability
impedes progress in identifying major data-management problems, such as systematic barriers
between data collection and data needs of process studies.
(xii) Data Management for Global Change Research. The data management and information
system for meteorological observations is relatively advanced, but inadequate for global change
research. Most data are poorly documented and are of uncertain quality, and some important data
are not accessible. This inaccessibility has limited the development of long climate records of the
ocean and atmosphere. For example, historical marine data during the two world wars exist but are
not included in any analyses, because they are not digitized.
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THE PLAN: DATA MANAGEMENT
FY 1990 Agency Initiatives and/or Augmentations (Data Management)
(i) Land Surface Data Systems. Provide for permanent archive, management, access and distribu-
tion of land Earth-science data sets for global change research. Includes transfer of remotely sensed
data (e.g., Landsat) to nonvolatile storage media, archive of selected USGS data sets for global
change, and access to land data maintained by Federal agencies. (Addresses weaknesses i to iv and
vii; USGS: FY89=$0, FY90=$3.0M.)
(ii) NOAA Climate and Global Change Data Management Services. Improve long-term data man-
agement support for NOAA program elements, including data bases on trace gases, global hydro-
logic cycle, and enhanced data support for predictive climate change models on time scales of
seasons to decades and centuries. Strengthening of observational networks also requires support for
activities that lead to climate data bases, data sets, and data fields that meet user requirements and
can be easily accessed by the global change community. (Addresses weaknesses iii to viii and xii;
NOAA: FY89=$0.8M, FY90=$2.5M.)
(iii) Interagency Working Group on Data Management for Global Change. Establish and coordi-
nate a Global Change Data and Information System by 1995 that is consistent across agencies and
involves and supports the university and other user communities, with the purpose of making it as
easy as possible for scientists to access and use global change data. (Addresses weaknesses i, iv to
ix, and xi; DOE: FY89=$0.1M, FY90=$0.2M; NASA: FY89=$0.1M, FY90=$0.2M; NOAA:
FY89=$0.2M, FY90=$0.5M; NSF: FY89=$0.1M, FY90=$0.2M; USGS: FY89=$0.1M,
FY90=$0.2M; U.S. Navy (USN): FY89=$0.1M, FY90=$0.2M.)
Organization of Data Sets to Improve the Understanding of Global Change Processes
Strengths of Current Organization of Data Sets to Improve Understanding
(i) Research Data Sets. Project data sets resulting from scientific process studies of limited duration
that involve experimental observations are often invaluable for further individual research (e.g., in
solid Earth process studies).
(ii) Research Data Facilities. A few scientific disciplines (e.g., meteorology, hydrology) are able to
improve understanding due to support by successful data facilities (such as the National Center for
Atmospheric Research [NCAR], the Unidata Project at the University Corporation for Atmospheric
Research, and the USGS Water Data Storage and Retrieval System [WATSTORE]) where data
management, science, and adequate technology converge.
(iii) Prototype Data Facility. A prototype, problem-oriented data facility has been created, with
notable success, to promote the integration of information related to carbon dioxide from many
disciplines (Department of Energy's Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center). This model
might be used by other data centers to foster greater integration of information across traditional
discipline boundaries.
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THE PLAN: DATA MANAGEMENT
Weaknesses in Current Organization of Data Sets and High Priority Research Needs to Improve
Understanding of Global Change Processes
(i) Documentation and Archiving. Project data sets are often collected in analog form, which
precludes widespread distribution and subsequent use of these data. Projects usually do not request
funds for documentation and archiving of project data.
(ii) Limited Access to Existing Data. Understanding global change processes requires the exploita-
tion of existing data to the maximum possible extent. However, retrospective data sets are poorly
catalogued, inconsistently documented, inaccessible, and have no disciplined publication process
(iii) Coordination of Data Processing. Many data sets thought to be vital to the understanding of
global change processes are not in computerized form (e.g., paleoclimate data). Potential users
would typically have access to computers to use such data, but no coordinated program exists to
computerize the data and make it available.
(iv) Artifact Free Data. To pass the 20-year test ("Can scientists 20 years hence have confidence
that global changes observed are real rather than artifacts of the measurement or analysis process?"),
new approaches to data management and data centers must emerge to include partnership between
scientists and data managers, and a new focus must be developed on documentation to describe and
support the raw data.
(v) Data Integration. National data centers have inadequate linkages that do not foster access to or
integration of data from different science elements. For example, ecological studies and climate
studies suffer from absence of coordination between their respective data centers.
(vi) Data Formats. Data formats and exchange mechanisms are inadequately standardized. Stan-
dards that do exist are not uniformly adhered to by the scientific community. This thwarts even the
most persistent scientists and data generators who attempt to combine or present data from the
different science elements.
(vii) Data Collection. Several, if not all, existing global data sets contain data collected for opera-
tional purposes, such as for the routing of ships and aircraft. These data have time and space resolu-
tion substantially less than the observing station networks that would be necessary to study global
change processes. Very few have been augmented by new collection efforts. A special program is
required to fill the gaps in these data sets by collecting and processing an approximately tenfold
increase in the number of stations for basic observations (e.g., temperature, precipitation) for the past
50 to 100 years.
(viii) Interdisciplinary Data Management. National Data Centers have traditionally been discipline-
oriented, while global change research is problem-oriented. Problem-oriented data centers are
needed to promote the integration of information across discipline boundaries.
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THE PLAN: DATA MANAGEMENT
Analyses and Preparation of Data Sets for the Development and Validation of Predictive
Global Change Models
Strengths of Current Analyses and Preparation of Data Sets
(i) Assimilation Models. Assimilation models produce enormous data sets describing variables with
known and/or uniform characteristics. These well-documented, derived data fill gaps in space or
time; ensure physical, chemical, or biological consistency; and can be used by multiple applications
until superior data are available.
Weaknesses in Current Analyses and Preparation of Data Sets and
High Priority Research Needs
(i) Data for Modeling Purposes. Global data sets (e.g., soil moisture) are not developed to support
modeling efforts. Of 70 data sets identified in the NASA Advisory Council's Earth System Science:
A Closer View, most cannot be used in scientific analyses or modeling efforts. Automated methods
to integrate global-scale satellite and in situ data sets must be developed and applied.
(ii) Global-Scale Observational Data. Data needs of global models have not traditionally driven the
data-collection or data management process. Rather, modelers have had to make do with adapting
data sets organized along needs of disciplinary studies. The usefulness of global change models will
be limited until data collection and processing responds to the needs of mathematical models by
providing sustained, well-calibrated, global-scale data sets of observations.
(iii) Proxy Records. Past records, both instrumental and proxy, must be analyzed to improve the
basis for testing models. The lack of coordinated data management activities among national data
centers and project scientists reduces the capabilities to capitalize on applying retrospective data to
models.
(iv) Model Validation. Lack of well-defined and validated modeling requirements for data compli-
cates the design of data collection activities.
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THE PLAN: DATA MANAGEMENT
100
PRIORITIES
PRIORITY FRAMEWORK FOR THE U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE
RESEARCH PROGRAM
The Committee on Earth Sciences (CES) has developed a multi-level, priority-setting frame-
work that can be used to focus and integrate program development and budget proposals. In order to
address the U.S. Global Change Research Program goal of establishing the scientific basis for sound
policy formulation, CES has identified several high priority research activities for each of the seven
science elements (See Figure 11). These represent our current understanding of the most serious
intellectual hurdles limiting: (i) knowledge of the controlling processes of global change, and (ii) our
capacity to develop comprehensive predictive capabilities. The initial phases for implementing the
U.S. Global Change Research Program will be taken in the context of these research priorities.
However, long-term planning will be undertaken over the next several years in close collaboration
with the NAS Committee on Global Change and appropriate international and intergovernmental
bodies and integrated into future revisions of this plan. Thus, it is likely and expected that the
priority framework will evolve over time.
The following sections briefly outline the highest priority initial research themes for each of
the seven science elements. The exact nature of specific program proposals and scientific plans to
address each of these themes will be developed by the Federal agencies in close collaboration with
the broad scientific community, both domestically and internationally.
These initial priorities are derived from numerous recommendations and research priorities
outlined by the science community (ESSC Report, NAS/CGC Initial Priorities for the IGBP, etc.).
The initial priority framework outlined herein is structured around those recommendations and from
the goals and objectives stated in the U.S. Global Change Research Program strategy document
entitled Our Changing Planet: A U.S. Strategy for Global Change Research. The framework uses a
multi-level priority structure:
Strategic Priorities. A set of overarching priorities that apply to all programs, projects, or
activities within the U.S. Global Change Research Program.
Integrating Priorities. The set of three U.S. Global Change Research Program objectives
designed to integrate the total program. Any research effort within the program must con-
tribute to one or more of these objectives.
Science Priorities. A set of implementation-level activities that are the "first order" science
priorities of the U.S. Global Change Research Program. These are the highest priority
elements of the Program.
Strategic Priorities
The major purposes for establishing strategic priorities are to provide an overall framework
to help determine the key elements of the U.S. Global Change Research Program, to keep the focus
on the most central goals and objectives of the Program, and to compare budget decisions against
broad strategic guidelines. The following research program characteristics are deemed to be of high
strategic importance:
101
STRATEGIC PRIORITIES
Support Broad U.S. and International Scientific Effort
Identify Natural and Human-Induced Changes
Focus on Interactions and Interdisciplinary Science
Share Financial Burden, Use the Best Resources,
and Encourage Full Participation
INTEGRATING PRIORITIES
Documention of Earth System Change
Observational Programs
Data Management Systems
Focused Studies on Controlling Processes
and Improved Understanding
Integrated Conceptual and Predictive Models
SCIENCE PRIORITIES
104
Climate and
Biogeochemical
Ecological Systems
Earth System
Human
Solid Earth
Solar
Hydrologic Systems
Dynamics
and Dynamics
History
Interactions
Processes
Influences
Role of Clouds
Bio/Atm/Ocean Fluxes
Long-Term Measure-
Paleoclimate
Data Base Development
Coastal Erosion
EUV/UV Monitoring
Ocean Circulation and
of Trace Species
ments of Structure/
Paleoecology
Models Linking:
Volcanic Processes
Atm/Solar Energy
Heat Flux
Atm Processing of
Function
Atmospheric
Population Growth
Permafrost and Marine
Coupling
Increasing Priority
Land/Atm/Ocean
Trace Species
Response to Climate
Composition
and Distribution
Gas Hydrates
Irradiance (Measure/
Water & Energy
Surface/Deep Water
and Other Stresses
Ocean Circulation
Energy Demands
Ocean/Seafloor Heat
Model)
Fluxes
Biogeochemistry
Interactions between
and Composition
Changes in Land Use
and Energy Fluxes
Climate/Solar Record
Coupled Climate System
Terrestrial Biosphere
Physical and
Ocean Productivity
Industrial Production
Surficial Processes
Proxy Measurements
& Quantitative Links
Nutrient and
Biological Processes
Sea Level Change
Crustal Motions and
and Long-Term
Ocean/Atm/Cryosphere
Carbon Cycling
Models of Interactions,
Paleohydrology
Sea Level
Data Base
Interactions
Terrestrial Inputs to
Feedbacks, and
Marine Ecosystems
Responses
Productivity/Resource
Models
PRIORITIES
Increasing Priority
Figure 11. U.S. Global Change Research Program Priority Framework
PRIORITIES
Climate and Hydrologic Systems
Role of Clouds. This element addresses (i) critically needed improvements in our understanding of
cloud-radiation feedback mechanisms as they influence climate change on all time scales, and (ii)
proper representation of cloud mechanisms in coupled general circulation models. Work on cloud
climatologies (monitoring) and cloud feedback mechanisms (processes research) and parameteriza-
tion (in models) are all priorities within this category.
Climate and
Ocean Circulation and Heat Flux. This activity will address a
Hydrological Systems
critical lack in our dynamical description of the ocean-atmosphere
system and its potential for interaction with biogeochemical
processes. A global-scale, four-dimensional description of oce-
Role of Clouds
anic circulation, density fields, and temperature distribution is
Ocean Circulation and
needed to close the gap between our understanding of oceanic
Heat Flux
versus atmospheric processes on climate time scales. Oceanic
Land/Atm/Ocean
processes represent a substantial "short circuit" for poleward heat
flux in response to radiative forcing in the Earth's tropical re-
Water & Energy
gions. The magnitude and time variability of these processes is a
Fluxes
critical dimension of global change research.
Coupled Climate System
& Quantitative Links
Water and Energy Fluxes. Fluxes of water and associated state
Ocean/Atm/Cryosphere
changes throughout the atmosphere represent a dominant force in
Interactions
the workings of the integrated Earth system. The global distribu-
tion of water vapor (the primary "greenhouse" gas), its source in
convective exchange with the ocean, and its loss to the atmos-
phere through varying patterns of precipitation are a primary key
to understanding how the Earth system works and how it responds
to changes in radiative forcing. Changing fields of convection and precipitation over oceanic re-
gions will be a major observational and modeling focus. Another key element of the global hydro-
logical cycle is understanding the effects of terrestrial vegetation on land surface characteristics that
influence the exchange of water between system components. Variable precipitation patterns over
land as they are manifested in land surface hydrology also will be addressed.
Behavior of Coupled Climate System, Feedbacks, and Quantitative Links. This element supports
research into the behavioral characteristics of coupled systems of atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere,
land surface, and biosphere. The identification of underlying order in such a nonlinear system
cannot be achieved solely by studying individual components, such as clouds, ocean circulation, or
hydrological cycle. How these components act together to affect natural variability on all time
scales will be the subject of considerable focus in the research program. Studies of the potential for
relatively sudden transitions within the natural system and model experimentation of transient
responses of the system to external forcing lie within this category.
Ocean, Atmosphere, and Cryosphere Interactions. This element will address two Earth system
problems: (i) the interactive processes between the atmosphere, ocean, and sea ice, that affect
relatively short-term changes in climate, and (ii) the amount and variability of fresh water stored in
the polar ice sheets as they affect the long-term evolution in the Earth system.
105
PRIORITIES
Biogeochemical Dynamics
Fluxes of Radiatively and Chemically Active Species Between the Atmosphere, Biosphere, and
Land and Ocean Surfaces. Initial emphasis will be on understanding the natural and anthropogenic
processes that regulate the fluxes of: (1) radiatively active long-lived gases released to the atmos-
phere, e.g., methane; (2) chemically active short-lived atmosphere species that influence oxidant and
acid formation and the microphysical nature of clouds and aerosols; and (3) carbon and nutrient
species exchange between the air, sea, land, and biota.
Biogeochemical
Atmospheric Cycling and Transformations of Radiatively and
Dynamics
Chemically Important Trace Species. Initial emphasis will be on
understanding: (1) the chemical and physical processes that
control the atmospheric (stratospheric and tropospheric) distribu-
tions and lifetimes of climatically, chemically and biologically
Bio/Atm/Ocean Fluxes
important trace species; and (2) how changes might be induced in
of Trace Species
the atmospheric chemical processing and removal mechanisms
Atm Processing of
for these species.
Trace Species
Surface/Deep Water
Biogeochemical Processes Responsible for the Exchange of
Biogeochemistry
Carbon and Nutrients Between the Surface, Deep Ocean Wa-
Terrestrial Biosphere
ters, and Sediments. Initial priority will be on identifying and
Nutrient and
quantifying the processes operative in ocean basins and coastal
Carbon Cycling
oceans that control the flux of carbon and other biologically and
climatically important elements to the deep ocean waters and
Terrestrial Inputs to
exchanges between the oceans and modern marine sediments.
Marine Ecosystems
Cycling and Transformation Within the Terrestrial Biosphere of
Nutrients and Carbon. Initial priorities will be on understanding
the role of the terrestrial biosphere in (1) regulating the global
carbon cycle, and (2) utilization and exchange of nutrient elements with surrounding environmental
media.
Terrestrial Flux of Nutrients and Carbon to Coastal Waters and Oceanic Ecosystem. Initial
priority will be focused on studying the role that major terrestrial landscapes play in supplying nutri-
ents and carbon to coastal ocean regions and how changes in land use practices can perturb these
inputs.
Ecological Systems and Dynamics
Long-Term Measurements of Structure/Function. Systematic sampling and monitoring are essen-
tial to document critical natural versus human-induced changes (e.g., "forest die-back" versus natu-
ral succession of vegetation) in the structure and function of globally relevant biological systems on
various time scales.
Response to Carbon Dioxide, Climate, and Physical/Chemical Stresses. Laboratory and field
studies are needed to improve the understanding of how species, ecological communities, managed
ecosystems, and natural ecosystems (terrestrial, aquatic, and marine) respond to climate and other
106
PRIORITIES
stresses. Research is especially needed on responses to multiple stresses (e.g., simultaneous elevated
carbon dioxide and moisture stress).
Interactions between Physical and Biological Processes. Initial
Ecological Systems
priority must be on improving measurements and the theoretical
and Dynamics
basis for interactions between physical and biological processes
on varying time and space scales, and how the large-scale inter-
Long-Term Measurements
actions influence processes at the smaller scales (e.g., the interac-
tion of climatic variables on phytoplankton dynamics or the
of Structure/
reproduction of forest trees).
Function
Response to Climate
Models of Interactions, Feedbacks, and Responses. Models
and Other Stresses
will be developed at appropriate scales to develop a theoretical
Interactions between
basis for linking ecology to physical climate dynamics in order to
Physical and
predict ecosystem response and feedbacks on climate and atmos-
Biological Processes
pheric composition.
Models of Interactions,
Productivity/Resource Models. Models will be developed to
Feedbacks, and
predict and assess biological productivity and natural resource
Responses
dynamics, especially agriculture, marine and forest resources.
Productivity/Resource
Models
Earth System History
Paleoclimate. Research will be carried out to reconstruct past climates on regional and global
scales. Objectives will include (1) documenting the natural variability of climate on all time scales
(decades or less to millions of years), (2) reconstructing the consequences of past climate changes,
(3) determining past rates of climate change, (4) improving under-
standing of causes of climate change, and (5) validation of climate
Earth System
models.
History
Paleoecology. Research to reconstruct past ecological conditions
and how ecosystems have responded in the past to climate change
will be conducted.
Paleoclimate
Paleoecology
Atmospheric Composition. Research will be conducted to docu-
Atmospheric
ment the history of changes in the earlier composition of the Earth's
Composition
atmosphere through time, e.g., studies of gas composition of air
Ocean Circulation
bubbles trapped in glacier ice.
and Composition
Ocean Productivity
Ocean Circulation and Composition. Initial emphasis will be
placed on documenting past changes in oceanic circulation and
Sea Level Change
composition and understanding their relationship to past global
Paleohydrology
climate.
Ocean Productivity. Research that is aimed at reconstructing the
historical productivity of oceanic ecosystems and its relationship
with past global climate will be performed.
107
PRIORITIES
Sea Level Change. The history of changes in sea level will be reconstructed and related to global-
scale climate change.
Paleohydrology. Research will be performed to reconstruct past hydrologic conditions - how they
varied through time and how they related to climate and responded to climate change. This will
include studies of past surface water, ground water, and lake level changes.
Human Interactions
Data Base Development. Empirical research on human interac-
Human
tions in global change must be based upon long-term, comparable,
Interactions
cross-national data bases. Among these data bases should be in-
formation on land use practices, energy transformations, economic
and social behavior, and social attitudes towards and perceptions
of environmental change.
Data Base Development
Models Linking:
Models Linking Population Growth and Distribution, Energy
Population Growth
Demands, Changes in Land Use, and Industrial Production.
and Distribution
Fundamental research will be carried out to develop a scientific
Energy Demands
understanding of the relationships and interactions between vari-
Changes in Land Use
ous types of human activities and global environmental change.
Industrial Production
This research will serve as the basis for developing models of
change over time. Research must deal with the patterns of direct
human action or impact on the environment and with the Earth
system, e.g., it must deal with both deforestation and the economic
system that makes deforestation profitable.
Solid Earth Processes
Coastal Erosion. Studies of coastal erosion and how wetland losses are affected by sea level
changes associated with global warming and the associated volume changes of the cryosphere will
be conducted. The geologic processes related to land loss and the sediment budget for coastal
regions will be also be studied to evaluate coastal erosion and inundation.
Volcanic Processes. The role of subaerial and submarine volcanism in contributing radiatively
important gases, aerosols, heat, and fluids that influence the composition of the atmosphere and the
ocean will be studied and quantified. Heat flux from submarine volcanism will be evaluated in light
of its influence on ocean circulation.
Permafrost and Marine Gas Hydrates. Changes in the areal extent of permafrost will be studied to
determine the quantity of radiatively important gases released to the atmosphere. Studies will be
conducted to understand how changes in ocean temperature will induce decomposition of the hy-
drates and release methane.
108
PRIORITIES
Solid Earth
Ocean-Seafloor Heat and Energy Fluxes. Mid-ocean ridge
Processes
systems will be studied to quantify the flux of heat volatiles
and particulates into the ocean that may influence ocean
circulation, chemistry, and the CO2 budget.
Coastal Erosion
Surficial Processes. The erosional, transport, and depositional
Volcanic Processes
processes on the Earth's surface will be studied to determine
Permafrost and Marine
their contributions to land surface changes, such as desertifica-
Gas Hydrates
tion, that may result in events such as dust storms.
Ocean/Seafloor Heat
and Energy Fluxes
Crustal Motions and Sea Level. Studies of the loading of the
Surficial Processes
Earth's crust and its deformation, both past and present, will
Crustal Motions and
be used to establish local versus global absolute sea level
Sea Level
change.
Solar Influences
EUV/UV Monitoring. Instrumentation with optimum long-term stability over the solar and mag-
netic cycles (1 percent in the ultraviolet and 5 percent in the extreme ultraviolet) will be developed
and installed. Data will be analyzed with a view to aid the interpretation of ozone density changes.
Atmospheric/Solar Energy Coupling. Studies will be conducted
on the energy, momentum, and mass transfer across the bounda-
Solar
ries of the sun-Earth system to understand the coupling of energy
Influences
between atmospheric regions as it relates to the chemistry and
dynamics of these regions.
EUV/UV Monitoring
Irradiance (Measurements/Models) Observations of total and
spectral solar irradiance with high precision (0.01 percent) and
Atm/Solar Energy
stability over the solar cycle will be conducted to improve current
Coupling
understanding through theory and modeling, of the relationships
Irradiance (Measure/
between irradiance, solar variability, and activity. The ground-
Model)
based observations will be important to biological response
Climate/Solar Record
studies.
Proxy Measurements
and Long-Term
Climate/Solar Record. Modeling of climate response to solar
Data Base
inputs and variability will be made by comparison of modern and
paleoclimates using proxy data.
Proxy Measurements and Long-Term Data Base. Studies using
modern measurement techniques to determine solar output,
including development of proxies for UV and EUV such as 10.7 cm flux, CaK and Hel 10830
spectral lines, will be initiated. A long-term observing program will be maintained and proxy meas-
ures for decadal and paleoclimate studies and ozone variability will be derived.
109
PRIORITIES
Evaluation Criteria
Within the priority framework, the CES will implement the Program on the basis of the
following criteria:
Relevance/Contribution. The research addresses the overall goal and the three key scientific
objectives of the Program.
Scientific Merit. The proposed work is scientifically sound and of high priority.
Readiness. The level of planning is high, the capabilities are of high-quality and in place,
and the research is likely to produce early advances.
Linkages. National and international programmatic connections, including interagency
partnerships, are in place.
Costs. The identified resources are adequate, they represent an appropriate share of total
available resources, there are prospects for joint funding, and long-term resource implications
have been evaluated.
110
BUDGET
FY 1989-1990 U.S. Global Change Research Program Budget
FY 1989-1990 Budget Summary
Over the past year, the CES conducted several interagency global change research budget
planning and analysis activities to ensure that the President's FY 1990 Budget includes requests that
are well integrated and responsive to the Program's goals and priorities.
Table 1 presents the FY 1989-1990 Program budget. In FY 1989, funding for focused global
change research activities total $133.9 million. The President's FY 1990 Budget proposes a funding
level of $191.5 million for this Program. This budget will allow the focused Program to expand and
accelerate its research activities across most areas of global change. As a result of subsequent CES
discussions, the levels of effort between science elements have changed slightly since the original
strategy document.
FY 1990 Initiatives
Based on the priority framework, the Program has identified several new initiatives for FY
1990. The majority (approximately 85 percent) of the resources allocated to FY 1990 initiatives
have been directed toward scientific activities within the three higher priority interdisciplinary
science elements; Climate and Hydrologic Systems, Biogeochemical Dynamics, and Ecological
Systems and Dynamics. These new initiatives include new programs and augmentations to ongoing
efforts. In most cases, the research initiatives contain significant elements of all three scientific
objectives, i.e. monitoring, understanding, and predicting global change, and are components of co-
ordinated national and/or international programs.
The fact that the FY 1990 initiatives cut across many of the seven science elements and three
scientific objectives demonstrates the interdisciplinary and multi-objective nature of the Program.
However, this also makes it very difficult to display the individual agency programmatic contribu-
tions. Some examples of these agency initiatives will be presented here along with the budget by
science element, by agency, and by Federal Budget Function. The following brief section analyzes
the characteristics of some examples of the FY 1990 initiatives:
The Department of Commerce/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Radiatively Important Trace Species initiative focuses on Biogeochemical Dynamics, is a
single agency program that contains elements of all three science objectives, complements
other ongoing U.S. agency programs (primarily in NASA and NSF), and is part of the high
priority research outlined in the ICSU International Global Atmospheric Chemistry Pro-
gramme.
The NSF and DOE Global Ocean Flux Study initiatives focus on Biogeochemical Dynamics,
contain elements in all three science objectives, and are key components of a well-coordi-
nated national (NSF, DOE, NASA, NOAA) and international program.
111
Table 1
U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEARS 1989 AND 1990
(Dollar in Millions)
CLIMATE AND
ECOLOGICAL
TOTAL
HYDROLOGIC
BIOGEOCHEMICAL
SYSTEMS &
EARTH SYSTEM
HUMAN
SOLID EARTH
SOLAR
AGENCY
BUDGET
SYSTEMS
DYNAMICS
DYNAMICS
HISTORY
INTERACTIONS
PROCESSES
INFLUENCES
FY89
FY90
FY89
FY90
FY89
FY90
FY89
FY90
FY89
FY90
FY89
FY90
FY89
FY90
FY89
FY90
AGENCY
TOTALS
133.9
191.5
37.0
60.2
26.1
38.6
32.5
46.9
3.3
8.0
22.0
20.1
8.9
10.4
4.1
7.3
DOC/NOAA
9.0
20.0
8.5
16.5
0.5
3.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
112
DOE
20.2
27.2
7.0
12.0
6.0
5.5
4.2
7.3
0.0
0.0
2.0
1.2
0.0
0.0
1.0
1.2
DOI *
5.3
11.3
1.8
4.6
0.2
0.3
0.0
0.0
1.3
3.3
1.5
2.5
0.5
0.6
0.0
0.0
EPA
27.4
35.3
0.7
2.2
0.8
3.5
7.4
13.2
0.0
0.0
18.5
16.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
NASA
14.5
21.5
4.3
6.4
3.0
4.4
4.3
6.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.2
3.3
0.7
1.0
NSF
39.2
53.5
13.2
17.0
13.5
18.3
1.9
1.9
2.0
4.7
0.0
0.0
6.2
6.5
2.4
5.1
USDA
18.3
22.7
1.5
1.5
2.1
3.1
14.7
10.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
*
NOTE: FY 1990 Focused Program Total differs from the amount reported in Our Changing Planet: A U.S. Strategy for Global
Change Research due to budget changes made after the printing date.
BUDGET
The proposed NASA Earth Observing System is a broad-based program that contains ele-
ments in all three science objectives, and will contribute towards an improved understanding
of five of the seven scientific elements. The Program includes advanced technology defini-
tion studies for this future initiative. A significant international contribution has been negoti-
ated through a series of bilateral agreements with the European Space Agency and other
nations having major space programs.
The Tropical Oceans and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program addresses all three scientific
objectives of the U.S. Global Change Research Program. It addresses an important problem
in climate prediction, incorporating large-scale observations, intensive process research, and
work on predictive models. In the U.S., TOGA involves formally coordinated work by four
agencies (NOAA, NSF, NASA, and the Department of Defense [DOD]) advised by a panel
from the NAS. Internationally, as part of the WCRP, 16 nations are cooperating through an
intergovernmental board formally established for TOGA implementation. Several important
bilateral relationships, which involved the U.S., have also been established to support TOGA.
The DOE Carbon Dioxide Program will initiate focused research on the problem of early
detection of global climate change. This initiative seeks to identify the atmospheric and
other measurements that appear promising in providing the early warming signal and to
develop the analytical methodologies for quantifying the links between the "greenhouse" gas
increases and climate change. The initiative spans the first two science elements and will
examine the cause and effect relationships involved in global warming.
The National Ozone Expedition is an interagency program (NASA, NOAA, NSF) designed to
obtain an improved understanding of the seasonal stratospheric ozone depletion over Antarc-
tica and the biological significance of the resultant changes in ultraviolet radiation reaching
the surface of this region of the Earth. Increased monitoring of solar ultraviolet fluxes in
Antarctica will be initiated by NSF to help meet the program's objectives.
Budget by Science Element
From the scientific perspective, the best way to understand the Program budget is to examine
it by science element. Figure 12 presents the FY 1989 and FY 1990 budgets by science element for
focused research efforts.
Climate and Hydrologic Systems. The FY 1990 budget proposes $60.2 million for this
element, a 63 percent increase over the FY 1989 level. This increased level of effort will
primarily focus on monitoring, understanding, and predicting aspects of (i) ocean circulation
through tracer experiments (NOAA and NSF), (ii) interactions between the tropical oceans
and the global atmosphere (NSF), (iii) sea level (NOAA), (iv) the exchange of energy and
water between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems and the cryosphere (NSF, Depart-
ment of the Interior/United States Geological Survey [USGS], and NOAA), (v) the quantita-
tive links between radiativechange and climate change (DOE), and advanced space remote-
sensing technology (NASA).
113
BUDGET.
Biogeochemical Dynamics. The FY 1990 budget proposes $38.6 million for this element, a
48 percent increase over the FY 1989 level. This increased level of effort will primarily
focus on monitoring, understanding, and predicting aspects of (i) the fluxes of radiatively
important trace gases between the atmosphere and the oceans and terrestrial ecosystems
(USGS, NSF, NOAA, EPA, USDA), (ii) fluxes of nutrients and carbon within the oceans
(NSF, DOE), (iii) transformations, distributions and trends of trace species within the upper
and lower atmosphere (NOAA, NSF), and development of advanced space remote-sensing
technology (NASA).
Ecological Systems and Dynamics. The FY 1990 budget proposes $46.9 million for this
element, a 44 percent increase over the FY 1989 level. This increased level of effort will
primarily focus on understanding (i) the response of managed and unmanaged ecosystems to
changes in climate, carbon dioxide, ultraviolet radiation and other stress factors (USDA,
EPA, DOE); and development of advanced space remote-sensing technology (NASA).
Earth System History. The FY 1990 budget proposed $8.0 million for this element, more
than doubling the FY 1989 level. This modest increased level of effort will focus on an
improved reconstruction of certain aspects of the Earth's past climates and environments
(USGS, NSF).
D
70
o
L
L
60
A
R
50
S
I
40
N
30
M
I
L
20
L
I
10
o
N
S
0
Climate and
Biogeochemical
Ecological
Earth System
Human
Solid Earth
Solar Influences
Hydrological
Dynamics
System
History
Interactions
Processes
Systems
Dynamics
SCIENCE ELEMENT
FY1989
///
FY1990
Figure 12. U.S. Global Change Research Program Budget by Science Element
114
BUDGET
Human Interactions. The FY 1990 budget proposed $20.1 million for this element. While
the budget table indicates no new FY 1990 resources for Human Interactions, NSF and
USGS will augment efforts in the development of land surface data systems, and on under-
standing the relationships among global environmental change and human activities, through
a reprogramming of existing funds in FY 1990.
Solid Earth Processes. The FY 1990 budget proposes $10.4 million for this element, a 17
percent increase over the FY 1989 level. This increased level of effort will primarily focus
on observations and understanding of crustal motions and dynamics (NSF), and developing
advanced space remote-sensing technology (NASA).
Solar Influences. The FY 1990 budget proposes $7.3 million for this element, a 78 percent
increase over the FY 1989 level. This increased level of effort will primarily focus on moni-
toring solar ultraviolet fluxes in Antarctica (NSF); understanding and predicting the solar
driven energetics and dynamics of atmospheric regions (NSF, DOE); and developing ad-
vanced space remote-sensing technology for monitoring and understanding the influences of
solar processes on the Earth's environment (NASA).
Budget by Agency
Figure 13 shows the FY 1989 and FY 1990 proposed focused program budgets by agency.
The individual agency efforts reflect their particular mission, and build upon their respective scien-
tific and technical strengths.
Department of Commerce/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (DOCINOAA).
DOC/NOAA programs emphasizes improving predictions of climate change and its regional
implications. The FY 1990 budget proposes $20.0 million for DOC/NOAA, roughly dou-
bling the FY 1989 level.
Department of Energy (DOE). DOE maintains a research program directed at the impact of
energy production and use on the global Earth system. The DOE programs are focused
primarily on climate and ecosystem response research. The FY 1990 budget proposes $27.2
million for DOE, a 35 percent increase over the FY 1989 level.
Department of the Interior/United States Geological Survey (DOI/USGS). DOI/USGS
carries out research in past climate change, regional hydrology, the carbon cycle, coastal
erosion, volcanic activity, and glaciology. The FY 1990 budget proposes $11.3 million for
DOI/USGS, roughly doubling the FY 1989 level.
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). EPA research is focused on ecological systems
and human interactions. The FY 1990 budget proposes $35.3 million for EPA, a 29 percent
increase over the FY 1989 level.
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). NASA conducts Earth science
research from space. This research effort supports advanced technology definition studies
115
BUDGET
for the proposed Earth Observing System (Eos). These studies focus on defining the sensors,
platforms, and data management needed to study a broad range of global change processes
from space. The FY 1990 budget proposes $21.5 million for NASA, a 48 percent increase
over the FY 1989 level.
National Science Foundation (NSF). The NSF primarily supports university-based basic
research in all areas of global change. The FY 1990 budget proposes $53.5 million for NSF,
a 36 percent increase over the FY 1989 level.
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). USDA research deals with the impact of
climate on agricultural and ecological systems and the impact of these systems on the cli-
mate. The FY 1990 budget proposes $22.7 million for USDA, a 24 percent increase over the
FY 1989 level.
60
D
o
L
50
L
A
R
S
40
I
N 30
M
I
20
L
L
I
10
O
N
S
0
DOC/NOAA
DOE
DOI/USGS
EPA
NASA
NSF
USDA
AGENCY
1989
1990
Figure 13. U.S. Global Change Research Program Budget by Agency
Budget by Federal Budget Function
Scientific, environmental, energy, and agricultural resources are very important to the Na-
tion. All either impact or are impacted by global change.
Figure 14 and Table 2 illustrate the Program's focused funding levels by the Federal budget
functions that encompass these national resources. As would be expected, the budget proposes
significant increases for budget functions 250 (General Science, Space, and Technology ) and 300
(Natural Resources and Environment). In FY 1990, $75 million is proposed for function 250, a 40
percent increase over FY 1989. For function 300, $66.6 million is proposed for FY 1990, a 60
percent increase over FY 1989.
116
BUDGET
Despite the broad distribution across these budget functions and, hence, across many Execu-
tive Branch and Congressional decision making paths, it is crucial to view the Program as a single,
integrated research effort. The success of many of the science objectives is dependent on the coop-
eration and contributions of all the individual agency programs. Thus, decisions concerning these
investments should attempt to recognize the full scope and structure of the U.S. Global Change
D
80
o
L
70
L
A
60
R
S
50
I
N 40
M
30
I
L
20
L
I
o
10
N
S
0
250
270
300
350
FEDERAL BUDGET FUNCTION
FY1989
/
FY1990
Figure 14. U.S. Global Change Research Program by Federal Budget Function.
117
BUDGET.
Table 2
U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH
PROGRAM BUDGET
by Federal Budget Function for Fiscal Years 1989 and 1990
(Dollars in Millions)
Budget Function
Budget Function
1989
1990
Number
Total
133.9
191.5
General Science, Space
and Technology
250
53.7
75.0
NASA
14.5
21.5
NSF
39.2
53.5
Energy (DOE)
270
20.2
27.2
Natural Resources &
Environment
300
41.7
66.6
DOI/USGS
5.3
11.3
EPA
27.4
35.3
DOC/NOAA
9.0
20.0
Agriculture (USDA)
350
18.3
22.7
118
APPENDIX A: AGENCY ROLES
APPENDIX A
Agency Roles in Addressing the Specific Goals and Objectives of the
U.S. Global Change Research Program
General statements of individual agency roles in addressing the specific goals and objectives of
the U.S. Global Change Research Program have been developed. These role statements identify roles
in the context of that Program and should not be interpreted as representing the full suite of agency
responsibilities and activities in all of Earth sciences. The statements were designed to be brief
summaries of agency involvement in the Program and specific mention of a task or geographic region
does not imply exclusive responsibility.
Department of Commerce - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NOAA maintains a balanced program of observations, analytical studies, climate prediction and
information management in the national global change program. NOAA will be responsible for:
operational in situ and satellite observations and monitoring programs; mission-directed research on
physical and biogeochemical processes in the climate system (including their effect on marine
ecosystems and resources); development, testing, and application of models and diagnostic techniques
for the detection and prediction of natural and human-induced climatic changes; and the acquisition,
maintenance, and distribution of long-term data bases and related climate information.
Department of Defense
DOD conducts mission-related research into environmental processes and conditions that affect
defense operations, tactics, and systems. DOD research programs contribute information that is useful
in focused global change programs of other agencies; other agencies' programs similarly produce
results that are useful to DOD's mission-related research programs. DOD participates in global change
program planning and collaborates with other agencies in global change data management in order to
ensure effective coordination and transfer of information between DOD and civilian agency programs.
Department of Energy
DOE shall conduct research on carbon dioxide and other emissions from energy supply and
end use systems. The research shall include the climate's response to those emissions and shall
develop the base of scientific information necessary to assess the climate's response assuming various
energy and industrial policies. Associated efforts may include, but not be limited to, research to
quantify the relationships between carbon dioxide and other trace gases and temperature rise,
assessment and application of predictive models, evaluation of global and regional climate and
environmental responses to various energy policy options, and research on industrial sources of trace
gases. Research may include all causes of climate change and how possible responses to change could
affect energy options.
Department of the Interior
DOI program efforts address the collection, maintenance, analysis, and interpretation of short-
and long-term land, water, biological, and other natural resource data and information. Such efforts
include, but are not limited to, monitoring of hydrologic and geologic processes and resources, land
use, land cover, and biological habitats, resources, and diversity. Some DOI research areas include:
past global change recorded in the physical, chemical, and biological record; the hydrologic cycle;
land-surface and solid Earth processes that relate to environmental change; geography and cartography;
A-1
APPENDIX A: AGENCY ROLES
polar and arid region processes; ecosystem modeling and dynamics; resource ethnology. The
Department utilizes knowledge developed in these and other agencies' programs to evaluate and when
necessary respond to potential effects of global change on water, land, biological, and other natural
resources.
Department of Transportation
DOT maintains awareness of the impact of transportation on global change. That impact occurs
primarily through the use of fuels in transportation systems, resulting in the emission of combustion
gases, including aircraft emission, into the stratosphere. DOT must also be aware of how climate
changes affect the efficiency and safety of transportation on land, sea, rivers, and in the air.
Environmental Protection Agency
EPA conducts research to assess, evaluate and predict the ecological, environmental, and
human-health consequences of global change, including the feedback of these systems on climate
change. Additional areas of activity include research to determine emission factors, and inventories
and models for radiatively important trace gases, and research to predict the interactions between global
atmospheric change and regional air and water quality.
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
NASA is responsible for Earth science research from space, including those studies of broad
scientific scope that study the planet as an integrated whole. Associated efforts include related process
studies; sub-orbital and ground-based studies; remote-sensing and advanced instrument development;
improvement of techniques for the transmission, processing, archiving, retrieval, and use of data;
related scientific models; and other research activities in atmospheric, oceanographic, and land
sciences.
National Science Foundation
NSF is responsible for maintaining the health of basic research in all areas of Earth,
atmospheric (including solar-terrestrial), and ocean sciences, including the relevant biological and
social sciences and research in the polar regions. The basic research program is focused on ground-
based studies on regional and global scales; large-scale field programs; interpretation and use of
remotely sensed data and geographic information systems; theoretical and laboratory research; research
facilities support; and the development of the numerical models, information and communication
systems, and data bases.
United States Department of Agriculture
USDA conducts research to assess the effects of global change on the agricultural food and
fiber production systems and on forests and forest ecosystems of the U.S. and world wide; including,
but not limited to, basic research on the biological response mechanisms to increasing greenhouse
gases, improvement of plant and animal germplasm to respond to global change, and development and
implementation of plans for terrestrial mitigation systems to ameliorate the observed increases of
greenhouse gases, including crops and forests. An additional responsibility shall include research on
applications of agricultural climatology to improve management decisions and conservation of
resources, while maintaining quality and quantity of crop yields.
A-2
APPENDIX B: INTRODUCTION
APPENDIX B
The Current U.S. Global Change Research Program
Cross-Cutting Program Characteristics
Although the U.S. Global Change Research Program uses the seven interdisciplinary science
elements as its organizing structure, two other cross-cutting characteristics - type of science activity
and focused versus contributing programs - are also important indicators of Program activities.
Their utility and role in the Program are summarized here. To provide the perspective that these other
indicators yield, the FY 1989 agency programs are described below in terms of these two
characteristics.
Science Activities and Infrastructure. While the interdisciplinary science elements (e.g.,
Biogeochemical Dynamics) broadly define the nature of the scientific disciplines involved, the overall
program can also be described by the following four types of science activities and infrastructure:
research,
long-term observations,
data management, and
facilities.
In FY 1989, as the agencies worked toward establishing the Program, the above crosscut was the
format of intercomparison, both in the science and budget activities. The utility to the Program of
having these four categories as a crosscut lies in the fact that they generally (i) involve separate parts of
the science community, (ii) require different styles of execution and hence program planning, and (iii)
occur with different emphases within the missions of the agencies (see Appendix A) and necessitate a
spectrum of budgetary approaches. Some characteristics of each type of activity, described below,
illustrate these points:
Research. This crosscut activity includes:
laboratory studies of the basic processes involved in environmental systems,
field measurement campaigns and satellite missions focused on particular phenomena or
problems, and
theory, analysis, modeling, and prediction of processes and Earth system components.
Implicit in the first two is the development of advanced instrumentation, which often is the limiting
aspect of such activities. The last item includes operational forecasting models, as well as models of
human activities that force global change. Similarly, implicit in all three is their role in assessments of
the state of the science of global change or its components.
Examples include laboratory studies of biological processes, ice-coring campaigns, and the
development of coupled atmosphere/ocean general circulation models, and the analysis of demographic
trends of "sunbelt" relocation.
Long-Term Observations. This activity includes observations made periodically or continuously
for time periods of a few years or more to document global change. It includes the facilities to support
these observations, such as special sites, as well as the time and costs of taking the measurements,
developing the algorithms to reduce the raw data, and analyzing the results.
B-1
APPENDIX B: INTRODUCTION
Examples include the field observations, satellite measurements, and analysis of the changes in
the concentrations of trace gases; defining the variations and trends in global atmospheric circulation;
observing weather patterns and ocean parameters from space; measuring streamflow, groundwater
levels, and lake levels; and recording ecological changes within special watersheds.
Data Management. This activity includes organizing, validating, archiving, preserving, and making
available data for global change research. The process goes far beyond simply archiving and
dissemination and involves analysis and decisions regarding data compression, retention periods, and
media appropriateness. This category is so often neglected in large-scale programs that it is treated as a
stand-alone topic above in this document. (See the section on "Data Management.")
Examples include meteorological and oceanographic data "products," bulletins on sporadic
geophysical phenomena like volcanic eruptions, sunspot records, satellite data banks, land use
records, and industrial production data.
Facilities. These are the major hardware items that support many of the global change research
activities. They represent substantial one-time investments, as well as additional maintenance and
operational costs.
Examples include research ships, field facilities, supercomputers, telecommunication hardware
and software, radioisotope dating laboratories, and aircraft.
All of the above are crucial to progress in understanding global change and its regional impacts.
Indeed, all four generally are involved in the large-scale mission-oriented programs aimed at
characterizing some specific feature of global change. Numerous other examples abound,
demonstrating that while some of the elements are more visible that others (compare aircraft and data
management), it would be a folly to promote one at the expense of the other (e.g., to fail to invest in
modernization of the oceanic research vessel fleet because of the relatively large one-time cost).
Focused Versus Contributing Programs
The U.S. Global Change Research Program is intended as a coordinated and interconnected
research effort that advances our understanding of the global environment. The categories of activity
are further divided into "Focused"and "Contributing" programs. In the report Our Changing Planet: A
U.S. Strategy for Global Change Research and in this Research Plan the following definitions have
been used by the Federal Agencies for the FY 1989 and the FY 1990 Budget summaries.
A focused program is defined as an agency program or activity designed specifically to study
global environmental changes or global processes which constitute part of the Earth's environmental
system. For example, NSF's Global Geosciences Program, NOAA's Climate and Global Change
Program, NASA's proposed Earth Observing System satellite program, and EPA's proposed Global
Climate Change Research Program are defined as "focused" programs.
A contributing program is an activity which was established and primarily justified on a basis
other than the specific study of global change, but which has the potential to contribute substantially to
global change research. Examples of "contributing" activities are ongoing agency programs such as
the NSF's Ocean Drilling Program and Atmospheric Chemistry Program, NOAA's weather satellite
program and ocean-atmosphere data set, USGS's stream gauge program, and NASA's
TOPEX/Poseidon and Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite programs. In many, but not all, cases the
contributions of these programs can only be realized by extracting global change information from their
traditional products and results. Contributing programs are included in the global change crosscut in
order to present a comprehensive picture of the broad agency capabilities in the area of global change.
As the agencies proceed to define their global change programs in FY 1991 and subsequent
years, the CES has agreed to redefine focused and contributing programs as follows: A focused
B-2
APPENDIX B: INTRODUCTION
program is an agency program, activity, or new initiative which addresses the explicit goals and
objectives of the U.S. Global Change Research Program. A contributing program is an activity or
new initiative which primarily is justified on a basis other than the specific study of global change but
which contributes substantially to the goals and objectives of the U.S. Global Change Research
Program. Therefore, in FY 1991 and subsequent years, only the following activities identified in the
above paragraphs would be identified as contributing, the NSF's Ocean Drilling Program, NOAA's
weather satellite program, and USGS's stream gauge program, all the other identified activities will be
classified as focused, e.g., NASA's TOPEX/Poseidon and Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite
programs and NSF's Atmospheric Chemistry Program.
Table B-1 presents the FY 1989-1990 Program budget. In FY 1989, funding for focused and
contributing global change research activities total $133.9 and $1476.2 million, respectively. The
President's FY 1990 Budget proposes a funding level of $191.5 and $1411.8 million for focused and
contributing activities in this Program. This budget will allow the focused Program to expand and
accelerate its research activities across all areas of global change. As a result of subsequent CES
discussions, the levels of effort between science elements has changed slightly since the original
strategy document. As reflected in the supportive nature of these programs, the FY 1990 contributing
program decreased as the result of decisions beyond the scope of the Program.
Description of Current Agency Programs
The following pages present a description of the current (FY89) focused and contributing
activities for the eight agencies (listed below) involved in global change research.
Department of Commerce (DOC) - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Department of Defense (DOD).
Department of Energy (DOE).
Department of the Interior (DOI).
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).
National Science Foundation (NSF).
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
B-3
APPENDIX B: INTRODUCTION
Table
U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM
(Dollars in
TOTAL
CLIMATE AND
BIOGEOCHEMICAL
AGENCY
BUDGET
HYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS
DYNAMICS
FY89
FY90
FY89
FY90
FY89
FY90
AGENCY TOTALS
1610.9
1603.3
834.8
797.8
241.6
250.0
FOCUSED
133.9
191.5
37.0
60.2
26.1
38.6
CONTRIBUTING
1476.2
1411.8
797.8
737.6
215.5
211.4
DOC/NOAA
FOCUSED
9.0
20.0
8.5
16.5
0.5
3.5
CONTRIBUTING
442.1
382.8
433.3
374.0
7.7
7.7
TOTAL
451.1
402.8
441.8
390.5
8.2
11.2
DOD
FOCUSED
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
CONTRIBUTING
45.7
32.3
31.4
20.5
2.1
1.7
TOTAL
45.7
32.3
31.4
20.5
2.1
1.7
DOE
FOCUSED
20.2
27.2
7.0
12.0
6.0
5.5
CONTRIBUTING
46.5
46.5
0.0
0.0
31.1
31.1
TOTAL
66.7
73.7
7.0
12.0
37.1
36.6
DOI*
FOCUSED
5.3
11.3
1.8
4.6
0.2
0.3
CONTRIBUTING
210.9
204.5
90.6
92.9
1.2
0.9
TOTAL
216.2
215.8
92.4
97.5
1.4
1.2
EPA
FOCUSED
27.4
35.3
0.7
2.2
0.8
3.5
CONTRIBUTING
70.0
58.9
13.9
11.8
3.7
2.6
TOTAL
97.4
94.2
14.6
14.0
4.5
6.1
NASA
FOCUSED
14.5
21.5
4.3
6.4
3.0
4.4
CONTRIBUTING
399.2
412.6
178.3
184.8
147.0
142.5
TOTAL
413.7
434.1
182.6
191.2
150.0
146.9
NSF
FOCUSED
39.2
53.5
13.2
17.0
13.5
18.3
CONTRIBUTING
112.4
120.0
42.2
46.7
18.0
20.0
TOTAL
151.6
173.5
55.4
63.7
31.5
38.3
USDA
FOCUSED
18.3
22.7
1.5
1.5
2.1
3.1
CONTRIBUTING
149.4
154.2
8.1
6.9
4.7
4.9
TOTAL
167.7
176.9
9.6
8.4
6.8
8.0
*NOTE: FY 1990 Focused Program Total differs from the amount reported in
Our Changing Planet: A U.S. Strategy for Global Change Research
due to budget changes made after the printing date.
B-4
APPENDIX B: INTRODUCTION
B-1
BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEARS 1989 AND 1990
Millions)
ECOLOGICAL
EARTH SYSTEM
HUMAN
SOLID EARTH
SOLAR
DYNAMICS
HISTORY
INTERACTIONS
PROCESSES
INFLUENCES
FY89
FY90
FY89
FY90
FY89
FY90
FY89
FY90
FY89
FY90
188.4
193.1
31.5
38.8
116.9
110.5
176.5
191.1
20.4
22.0
32.5
46.9
3.3
8.0
22.0
20.1
8.9
10.4
4.1
7.3
155.9
146.2
28.2
30.8
94.9
90.4
167.6
180.7
16.3
14.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.1
1.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.1
1.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
11.2
5.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
4.9
0.0
0.0
11.2
5.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
4.9
0.0
0.0
4.2
7.3
0.0
0.0
2.0
1.2
0.0
0.0
1.0
1.2
8.3
8.3
0.4
0.4
0.0
0.0
6.7
6.7
0.0
0.0
12.5
15.6
0.4
0.4
2.0
1.2
6.7
6.7
1.0
1.2
0.0
0.0
1.3
3.3
1.5
2.5
0.5
0.6
0.0
0.0
36.6
34.9
0.6
0.3
68.1
63.7
11.8
9.8
2.0
2.0
36.6
34.9
1.9
3.6
69.6
66.2
12.3
10.4
2.0
2.0
7.4
13.2
0.0
0.0
18.5
16.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
52.4
44.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
59.8
57.7
0.0
0.0
18.5
16.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.3
6.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.2
3.3
0.7
1.0
13.8
16.7
4.5
5.5
0.6
0.0
47.3
55.7
7.7
7.4
18.1
23.1
4.5
5.5
0.6
0.0
49.5
59.0
8.4
8.4
1.9
1.9
2.0
4.7
0.0
0.0
6.2
6.5
2.4
5.1
12.9
15.7
22.0
24.2
1.0
1.4
9.7
6.7
6.6
5.3
14.8
17.6
24.0
28.9
1.0
1.4
15.9
13.2
9.0
10.4
14.7
18.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
19.6
19.8
0.7
0.4
25.2
25.3
91.1
96.9
0.0
0.0
34.3
37.9
0.7
0.4
25.2
25.3
91.1
96.9
0.0
0.0
B-5
APPENDIX B: DOC/NOAA
Department of Commerce (DOC):
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Climate and Hydrologic Systems
Focused ($8.5M)
Research
Interannual Climate (TOGA). NOAA proposes to continue strong lead agency role in the multi-
agency, international Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program. NOAA's
contributions derive from: (i) a coordinated ocean-atmosphere measurement program; (ii) intensive,
short-term, regional measurements focused on specific processes identified as critically important for
an understanding of large-scale atmosphere-ocean interaction; (iii) empirically-based descriptive and
statistical studies; and modelling efforts. The long-range goal is to achieve an operational predictive
capability with the more immediate aim of establishing the limits of predictability of the coupled
atmosphere-ocean system.
Observations
Ocean Monitoring. NOAA's contribution to the national effort to obtain an effective description of
the time-dependent global ocean includes: using established techniques such as drifting and moored
buoys, coastal and island stations, and volunteer observing ships. The goal is to measure
continuously, and on a long-term, global basis, an appropriate set of ocean parameters that are affected
by or influence seasonal to decadal changes in the Earth's climate system. In addition, this program
element involves the development and application of new techniques, such as freon tracer studies of
water mass formation and movement. These activities will improve model simulations of climate
relevant ocean behavior and our ability to predict long-term climatic change.
Global Sea Level. A separate monitoring effort will concentrate specifically on the measurement of
global sea level. NOAA will establish a globally distributed, in situ network capable of measuring
absolute sea level to 1 cm accuracy by making use of existing systems where possible, by deploying
new high technology systems at selected sites, and by establishing and integrating a global absolute
geodetic reference framework. The data from this in situ network will be combined with satellite
altimetric observations (initially from GEOSAT) to produce a global absolute sea level monitoring
capability. Near and long-term benefits include detection of actual sea level changes and improved
understanding of global ocean dynamics.
Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics. The goal of this program element is to accurately observe the
climate state on a global basis, to determine the fluctuations and trends with confidence, and to
examine potential changes in the future. Specific activities under the Climate and Global Change
Program include: (i) Climate Data Assimilation - the step-wise development of improved quality
control and data inventory leading to an operational project for routine post analysis of meteorological
data for climate purposes; (ii) "Reanalysis" Working with other agencies and the academic community
to define and implement a meaningful program in "reanalysis" -- the retrospective analysis of routine
oceanographic and meteorological data after the addition of delayed data, satellite data products and
research data; (iii) Satellite Data Projects - To provide integrated, descriptions of the climate system
including the atmosphere, land surface, ocean surface, and elements of the cryosphere; based
primarily on data from NOAA's polar-orbiting and geostationary platforms, along with appropriate
surface analyses; and (iv) Climate Diagnostics - The application of mathematical and statistical analysis
of climate data sets to assess the evolution of climate trends and fluctuations and to examine potential
B-6
APPENDIX B: DOC/NOAA
changes in the future. Near and long-term benefits of this information include predictive model
improvements and the ability to detect, document, and assess climate change.
Data Management
Climate Data Services. To support activities which lead to climate data bases, data sets, and data
fields which meet user requirements and can be easily accessed by the global change community. This
element addresses data management support for NOAA-specific Climate and Global Change programs
as well as NOAA's contribution to cooperative efforts with other agencies to define and develop data
systems to support a national global change program. Specific activities will include: (i) support for
long-term planning mechanisms (including the Interagency Working Group on Data Management for
Global Change), (ii) improvements to existing quality-control, processing and communications
systems, (iii) system specification and development for long-term data management capabilities, (iv)
creation of catalogs, inventories, and directories of environmental data sets, (v) development,
maintenance and dissemination of critical climate and global change data bases, and (vi) coordination
of processing techniques/procedures as well as hardware/software.
Contributing ($433.3M)
Research
Interannual Climate Research, including TOGA. Understanding the El Niño-Southern Oscillation
(ENSO) phenomenon as a major mode of interannual climate variability is the focus of NOAA seasonal
and interannual research. This research focuses on the requirements for improving the accuracy,
timeliness, and utility of projections of the low frequency climate variations associated with the
Southern Oscillation. High priority is given to research for data acquisition and analyses which
contribute to the development of a real-time modeling capability and the interpretation of ENSO-related
variability. Near and long-term benefits include providing advisories and projections of climate
variations associated with ENSO-related changes and improvements in coupled ocean-atmosphere
models.
Long-Term Climate Research. In addition to the RITS/CO₂ (Biogeochemical Dynamics) and GMCC
(Observation) programs, and climate modeling at GFDL, NOAA's long-term climate research
programs also include studies of how ocean dynamics and processes affect long-term climate
variability. These activities, like the Subtropical Atlantic Climate Studies (STACS) as well as freon
tracer studies to determine the oceans behavior as a source of and sink for carbon dioxide, complement
the ocean-atmosphere studies described previously in the context of interannual climate variability.
Near and long-term benefits include model improvements and enhanced predictive capabilities.
Climate Analysis and Modeling - at Environmental Research Laboratories (primarily Geophysical
Fluid Dynamics Laboratory). The purpose of climate-related modeling research is twofold: to
describe, explain and simulate climate variability on timescales from seasons to millennia; and to
evaluate the climatic impact of human activities such as the release of CO₂ and other gases in the
atmosphere. Available observations are analyzed to determine the physical processes by which the
circulations of the oceans and atmospheres are maintained and mathematical models are constructed to
study and simulate the ocean, the atmosphere, the coupled ocean, atmosphere and cryosphere system.
This work is closely coordinated with operational forecasting requirements at the National
Meteorological Center (NMC) and complementary research conducted by the nation's universities and
NSF with the ultimate goal of improving our ability to predict changes in the global climate system.
Climate Analysis and Prediction at the National Weather Service/Climate Analysis Center (CAC) :
A combined operational and research effort with a primary mission to monitor short-term climate
anomalies in near-real-time, perform diagnostics and issue climate outlooks. The major program
B-7
APPENDIX B: DOC/NOAA
thrusts include: atmospheric diagnostics emphasizing the global influence of tropical oceans; global
climate monitoring using conventional observations with satellite products; ocean modeling for the
analysis and prediction of interseasonal and interannual climate variations; stratospheric analysis and
trends in ozone; applied climatology and the use of climate information for agriculture, energy
applications and water resources; and climate prediction on the weekly, monthly and seasonal time
scales. Near-term benefits include a variety of climate information and products distributed for
immediate use by government, industry, and research institutions; long-term benefits derive from
improvements in routine, operational predictions of climate change and its regional implications.
Observations
Long-Term Climate Studies GMCC. The Geophysical Monitoring for Climate Change (GMCC)
Program plans and conducts world-wide trace element monitoring programs and research necessary to
measure long-term global trends in atmospheric constituents and properties likely to produce change.
This approach includes trace gas and particulate measurements, including continuous ground level
measurements of carbon dioxide (in collaboration with DOE), solar radiation, ozone, dust loading,
vertical distribution of atmospheric particulates, condensation nuclei concentration, and composition of
particles relevant to climatic change and analysis of monitoring data to determine global budgets,
sources, sinks and trends. Near and long-term benefits include detection of change, documentation of
trends and model improvement and verification.
Large-Scale Ocean Observations. To maintain basic ocean data collection, monitoring, and analysis
capabilities aimed at improving the ability to predict the behavior of and changes in the global ocean
environment. These oceanographic and meteorological data are used in operational forecasts and
warnings to also promote safety and economy. In the long-term, these measurements will improve
model simulations of climate-relevant ocean behavior and our ability to predict long-term climatic
changes.
Geodosy. Processing satellite altimetry data from GEOSAT to produce: time series of sea level,
global mesoscale eddy statistics, improved tide models, surface circulation information, and wind
speed and height. In addition, NOAA supports a small base program designed to develop a pilot
network of "absolute" sea level stations using Global Positioning Systems (GPS) and Very Long
Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) techniques. Near-term benefits include support for research programs
like TOGA with eventual contributions to a global system for the detection of sea level change.
Environmental Satellite Programs. This activity includes the NOAA series of Polar-Orbiting
Environmental Satellites (POES) which monitor weather and surface conditions over the entire globe;
the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) which permit near-continuous
observations of the Earth's western hemisphere to provide imagery, soundings, and data collection
communication relays from remote data collection platforms; and commercialization of the Land
Remote Sensing System (Landsat). NOAA controls the satellites, acquires, processes, and analyzes
the satellite data, prepares products, and distributes the products to the National Weather Service and
other users. With the application of focused program resources, these products can be converted in the
near-term into information useful in detecting and documenting changes in the global environment; and
(ii) improving predictive models.
Data Management
Long-Term Data Management. To provide long-term support to the archiving of data for global
change; ensure that the integrity of data processes (e.g., observation and quality control, leading up to
the archiving of these data) are compatible with the archiving process; and ensure that the archived data
are accessible to the user community. By supporting both the NOAA and national programs, these
data management activities will provide near and long-term contributions to detecting, documenting,
understanding and predicting changes in the global environment.
B-8
APPENDIX B: DOC/NOAA
Climate Record Construction - Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS): Description
of the ocean climate of the past 130 years based on over 100 million individual marine observations
beginning in 1853. NOAA continues to be involved in similar climate record construction studies
including: a measure of historical tropical rainfall using highly reflective cloud frequency over the
tropics, a time-series estimate of stratospheric aerosol loading, and atmospheric data for describing the
Northern Hemisphere land climate for the period 1850-1980 (assembled for DOE). Activities such as
these allow for model verification and improvements as well as providing for the long-term
documentation of change.
Facilities
Facilities Support (Ships and Aircraft). This program element reflects the costs associated with the
management, coordination, scheduling and operation of NOAA ships and aircraft in support of climate
research primarily.
Biogeochemical Dynamics
Focused ($0.5M)
Long-Term Observations
Stratospheric Monitoring. To obtain reliable, long-term observations of the stratospheric
constituents and parameters that are sensitive indicators of stratospheric change and to couple these
data with developing theory to understand such changes. Working with NASA, NOAA will establish
and operate a monitoring network that uses state-of-the-art, ground-based, remote-sensing instruments
to measure several key stratospheric constituents (ozone, temperature, chlorine monoxide, water
vapor, aerosols, nitrogen dioxide and hydrochloric acid). Near-term benefits include reliable satellite
sensor calibration, and model validation and diagnostics; in the long-term, time-series data will permit
detection of trends and documentation of trends.
Contributing ($7.7M)
Research
Stratospheric Ozone Processes. Research on the photochemical processes that control the amount
of ozone in the stratosphere. To allow reliable predictions of the current and future impact of natural
and man-made chemicals (notably those containing chlorine) on the ozone layer. Approach is an
interactive combination of field measurement campaigns (ground-based, aircraft, and balloons),
laboratory studies of chemical reactions, and multidimensional theoretical modeling. Near and long-
term benefits include predictive model improvements and the differentiation of natural and human-
induced changes.
Acid and Oxidant Processes. To develop a predictive understanding of the oxidizing capacity of the
global lower atmosphere, which determines how natural and man-made emissions are transformed into
compounds, such as acids, that can then be removed from the atmosphere. Part of a multi-agency
effort (NOAA, NSF, NASA), NOAA focuses on natural emissions, clear-air chemistry, and dry
deposition processes. Understanding is sought via comparisons of results from field studies in
continental and oceanic areas and theoretical predictions. Near and long-term benefits include
predictive model improvements and the differentiation between natural and human-induced change.
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APPENDIX B: DOC/NOAA
Trace gas studies (RITS and CO₂). To improve measurements, understanding, and eventual
prediction of changes in the concentration of radiatively important atmospheric trace gases, such as
CH₄ and middle-atmosphere ozone, that affect climate change. Activities (both research and
observations) include upgrading the number and accuracy of global measurements, implementing
measurements of new trace gases, determining the relationship between natural and anthropogenic
sources, analyzing and modeling photochemical and transport processes, and modeling the potential of
the radiatively important trace gases to alter the Earth's habitability via the "greenhouse" effect. Near
and long-term benefits include predictive model improvements, documentation of change, and
differentiation between natural and human-induced change.
Observations
Acidic Deposition Monitoring. In collaboration with several agencies, NOAA operates three types
of acidic deposition monitoring sites: (i) dry deposition in the northeastern U.S., (ii) wet deposition in
the continental U.S., and (iii) background wet deposition in remote areas of the world (done solely by
NOAA). Continuous time-series data will permit detection of change, documentation of trends, and
verification of the effect of pollution controls.
Ecological Systems and Dynamics
Contributing ($1.1M)
Observations and Data Management
Fisheries Resources Information. National Marine Fisheries Service base activities related to the
effects of climate changes on fisheries. These activities are concentrated in two NMFS laboratories,
the Atlantic Environmental Group and the Pacific Environmental Group. These laboratories engage in
collecting information on the climatic influences on the abundance of commercial and recreational fish
species; which will enable resource managers and private sector users to anticipate and adjust to
changes in resource availability.
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APPENDIX B: DOD
Department of Defense (DOD)
The Department of Defense participation in the Global Change Research Program is derived
from the Department's extensive research programs in Earth sciences and from the Department's data
acquisition programs in support of DOD operations and for other climatic requirements such as
systems design and testing. While DOD will not be conducting research to understand global change
per se, there are many aspects of DOD activity that will be impacted by global change and those
impacts will require DOD study. Additionally, DOD long-term data acquisition activities, particularly
oceanographic, will be valuable to focused global change efforts of other agencies. DOD research
activities bearing directly on global change issues are dominated by oceanographic research under the
sponsorship of the Office of Naval Research, while the long-term oceanographic observations program
is conducted under the Office of the Oceanographer of the Navy. Other pertinent, but less extensive,
programs are being conducted by the Air Force Geophysics Laboratory, Defense Nuclear Agency and
several laboratories within the Army.
Climate and Hydrologic Systems
Contributing ($31.4M)
Research
Air/Sea Interaction. Understanding momentum, moisture and heat exchange between the ocean and
the atmosphere is the objective of this research area. Programs in this area seek to develop the
methods, theory, and experimentation required to strictly interpret from first principles the interaction
between the atmosphere and the ocean, including leads in the ice covered Arctic Ocean.
Marine Meteorology. Totally devoted to understanding weather over the sea, research in this area
focuses on the marine atmospheric boundary layer and storms at sea. Key experimental programs
ongoing in this area are the ERICA program over the Northwest Atlantic looking at explosive
cyclogenesis, a tropical cyclone motion experiment in the Western Pacific, and the Atlantic Stratus
Experiment to understand cloud formation and dissipation over the temperate Northeast Atlantic.
Small and Mesoscale Physical Oceanography. The capability to forecast/model the ocean from the
fine scale (e.g., turbulence, internal waves) to the mesoscale within a global ocean (e.g., fronts and
eddies, basin scale) is the intent of these program areas. A number of ongoing major programs are a
part of this effort including SYNOP, Indian Ocean Dynamics, Ocean Subduction, Coordinated Eastern
Arctic Experiment, Ocean Waves, and Topographic Interactions. Mesoscale operational models are
also being developed for the Gulf Stream, Iceland-Faroes Front, and the Sub-arctic Convergence in the
Northeast Pacific. The development of algorithms for merging data from satellites, expendable probes
and oceanographic station data is geared toward improving operational forecasting models. The Navy
is assisting in the Heard Island Project which is intended to explore the feasibility of monitoring
acoustic propagation over global distances, giving direct measurements of the rate of warming of the
global ocean.
Ocean Remote Sensing. Fundamental research to understand the interaction of electromagnetic
radiation with the surface of the ocean and ice and how subsurface processes modify that signal. This
includes synthetic aperture radar, scatterometry, and radiometry.
Earth Surface Reflectivity. Field and laboratory spectral measurements and studies are being
conducted in conjunction with instrumented test sites to establish radiation/meteorological data bases
and models for given sites (currently temperate and desert locales) as a step towards satellite remote
sensing of Earth surface conditions and reflectivity.
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APPENDIX B: DOD
Global Cloud Distribution and Forecasting. Research is being conducted to improve the capability
of global atmospheric models to predict or specify cloud cover. Results of these efforts by the Air
Force Geophysics Laboratory, could be valuable to focused global change research addressing the
global radiation balance.
Atmospheric Modeling. Efforts are being made to understand the impact on atmospheric behavior
of large dispersions of smoke and dust. Global circulation and mesoscale dynamic models are being
improved to incorporate three-dimensional processes and local atmospheric dynamics under perturbing
conditions. Efforts are being extended to understand modeling requirements for inclusion of
tropospheric gaseous and chemical dynamics.
Observations
Long-term observations. Includes all of the process oriented research efforts presented above.
Long-term commitments to each of these research areas and measurement programs are maintained to
satisfy DOD needs, and the data archived will be valuable to global change research efforts. Likewise,
many of the products of the global observational data sets the Navy collects and maintains to support
operational requirements may be valuable in global change assessments. Some of the products from
these observational data bases are distributions of sea surface temperature, winds, sea state,
thermocline depth, ocean currents, sea ice, cloud cover, storm occurrence, and atmospheric
turbulence. Mapping, charting and geodesy surveys conducted by the Navy around the world can
contribute to determining shoreline changes, sea level rise, and variations in coastal currents. The Air
Force Environmental Technical Applications Center maintains long-term data bases to meet DOD
global climatic requirements. Data bases consist of archived global surface and upper air data, global
cloud analyses, and global snow cover. Less extensive data from aircraft, satellites, and rocketsondes
are also maintained.
Environmental Satellite Programs. This activity includes the Defense Meteorological Satellite
Program (DMSP) series of polar-orbiting weather satellites which monitor weather and surface
conditions over the globe. DOD controls the DMSP satellites, acquires, processes, and analyzes the
satellite data, prepares products, and distributes the products, including some to the Department of
Commerce for its use and other civilian customers. The microwave imager on DMSP (SSM/I)
measures, among other elements, sea ice extent and concentration. Another sensor on GEOSAT
(ALT) measures the relative variations in the level of the sea surface for ocean circulation.
Data Management
No specific data management costs/centers are maintained. Existing data centers are utilized to
archive, preserve and make available all unclassified data. Grantees sponsored to do research in these
areas are required to submit, to the appropriate data center, the standard data collected during the
course of their grant or contract. Funds to do this are provided as a part of the scientists' normal costs
of doing research. Operationally, the Navy gathers global data sets from ships, aircraft, buoys and
satellites. Computer algorithms exist for merging these data and making operational forecasts.
Collectively, analyses of these data sets are available to the national climatic archival centers. The
installation of a Large Scale Computer at the Stennis Space Center within the next two years will
provide a unique capability for manipulating massive data sets and providing more detailed
oceanographic predictions. It should be noted that the costs associated with routine data acquisition
(e.g., weather observations and ocean soundings) are not included in the above contributing cost
figure. It is considered, however, that these observational data sets contribute to the data base
available for global change research.
Facilities
While not funded, operated, or maintained for global change assessment, the Navy has 12
specialized oceanographic ships and 3 aircraft capable of making oceanographic measurements. Buoys
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APPENDIX B: DOD
are deployed in the ocean and on the ice to measure drift, winds, barometric pressure, and sea
temperature.
Biogeochemical Dynamics
Contributing ($2.1M)
Research
Marine Particle Dynamics. The study of particle dynamics in the ocean ecosystem leading to the
understanding of those processes which are responsible for their abundance, type, and distribution.
These particles are responsible for the redistribution of many chemical constituents in the ocean.
Marine Photochemistry. Research on those chemical processes in the ocean accounting for the
generation and decomposition of photochemically active compounds.
Hydrothermal Vents/Archaebacteria Geophysical, geochemical, and biological research at ocean
ridges where hydrothermal fluids emanate from the ocean bottom. The focus of the research is to
understand the temporal and spatial scales of the phenomenon and the resultant biological,
geophysical, and geochemical signatures associated with it.
Long-Term Observations
Includes all of the process oriented research efforts listed above. Long-term commitments to each of
these research areas and measurement programs are maintained to satisfy Departmental needs. The
long-term data bases acquired will be of value to global change research efforts.
Data Management
No specific data management costs/centers are maintained. Existing data centers are utilized to
archive, preserve and make available all unclassified data. Grantees sponsored to do research in these
areas are required to submit, to the appropriate data center, the standard data collected during the
course of their grant or contract.
Facilities
Research ship construction and refit. The Knorr and the Melville research ships are being refitted
and a new research vessel (AGOR 23) to be operated by the University of Washington is being built.
On the drawing board for FY92 is an additional $45M for a follow on AGOR 24.
Ecological Systems and Dynamics
Contributing ($11.2M)
Research
Physical/Biological Ocean Dynamics. This research thrust couples physical oceanography, ocean
optics and biological oceanography in order to understand the mechanisms accounting for biological
distributions found in the ocean. This is a broadly supported thrust requiring a multidisciplinary
approach as well as regional (e.g. Arctic and Coastal) understanding. Examples of ongoing programs
are the Coastal Transition Zone, Coordinated Eastern Arctic Experiment, Topographic Interactions,
Marine Light Mixed Layer, BIOSYNOP, and Marine Biosurfaces. Numerical ocean modeling and
remote sensing are key enabling science areas and tools for this research.
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APPENDIX B: DOD
Geophysical/Biological Interactions. A research area leading to an understanding of benthic
community structure from a knowledge of: (1) organisms present, (2) bottom stress and other fluid
flow conditions, and (3) benthic biological processes.
Long-Term Observations
Includes all of the process oriented research efforts listed above. Long-term commitments to each of
these research areas and measurement programs are maintained to satisfy Departmental needs. The
long-term data bases acquired will be of value to global change research efforts.
Data Management
No specific data management costs/centers are maintained. Existing data centers are utilized to
archive, preserve and make available all unclassified data. Grantees sponsored to do research in these
areas are required to submit, to the appropriate data center, the standard data collected during the
course of their grant or contract. Funds to do this are provided as a part of the scientists' normal costs
of doing research.
Solid Earth Processes
Contributing ($1.0M)
Research
Hydrothermal Processes. Hydrothermal vents play an unknown but potentially important part in our
understanding of geophysical and geochemical processes occurring within the ocean. These vents are
also well known for their unusual biology. Research in this area is currently focused on geophysical
theory related to the formation and stabilization of hydrothermal vent fields.
Nearshore Science. Basic research studying the interaction of the ocean with the shoreline,
especially currents and sediment transport inshore of the surf zone. Fundamental understanding of
beach erosion processes that will be impacted by rising sea level.
Long-Term Observations
Includes all of the process oriented research efforts listed above. Long-term commitments to each of
these research areas and measurement programs are maintained to satisfy Departmental needs. The
long-term data bases acquired will be of value to global change research efforts.
Data Management
No specific data management costs/centers are maintained. Existing data centers are utilized to
archive, preserve and make available all unclassified data. Grantees sponsored to do research in these
areas are required to submit, to the appropriate data center, the standard data collected during the
course of their grant or contract. Funds to do this are provided as a part of the scientists' normal costs
of doing research.
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APPENDIX B: DOE
Department of Energy (DOE)
Climate and Hydrologic Systems
Focused ($7.0M)
Research
CO₂ and Climate. Research focuses on the climate system to improve prediction of climate change
in response to increase of atmospheric CO₂ and methane. Objectives are to develop/improve models
for estimating global and regional climate change due to increasing CO2/methane, and to evaluate
causes of different model results. Emphasis is placed on critical experiments to detect the "early
warming" signal, with modification of measurement systems for better definition of quantitative cause
and effect relationships. Records are analyzed to detect evidence of climate system response to past
and continuing increase of atmospheric CO₂. Climate properties investigated include rate and
magnitude of change in parameters such as temperature, precipitation, frequency of extreme events as
well as variability of these quantities. Current climate models can not describe rate, distribution and
magnitude of regional climate change. To solve this problem it is necessary to understand why models
perform as they do, and to improve models so they provide reliable estimates of rate/magnitude of
regional climate change. The research addresses questions of climate response to forcings and
feedbacks of CO₂ and other radiatively important gases.
Data Management
CO2 and Climate. Data bases, models and bibliographic information about the climate system are
maintained at the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center. Data documentation supports analysis
and modeling of climate research. Data quality is reviewed, and exchange of data is fostered among
scientists and other users. Communication of CO₂ and climate information is carried out among
scientists, policy makers and the interested public.
Biogeochemical Dynamics
Focused ($6.0M)
Research
CO₂ and Climate. Objectives are to determine how global biogeochemical systems influence
atmospheric concentration of CO₂ and methane. Includes an inventory of current knowledge of the
carbon cycle, and projections of atmospheric CO₂ change. Field investigation and computer modeling
provide a quantitative basis for CO₂ exchange among terrestrial, oceanic and atmospheric parts of the
carbon system. Natural sources and sinks of CO2 are evaluated in relation to fossil fuel influences.
Relative contribution of physical, biological and energy sources to the changing CO₂ composition of
the atmosphere is investigated.
In Aerosol Impacts the objective is to evaluate the role of natural and anthropogenic aerosols in the
atmospheric radiative balance and in the modification of clouds. Studies will include field experiments
with aircraft and remote sensing as well as numerical modeling of the cloud processes. The global
change relevance comes from the possibility that increased aerosol loadings may be cooling the globe.
In Precipitation Chemistry the objective is to relate precipitation chemistry to overall emission
patterns and to identify trends in ionic species, organics, and trace metals found in rain. This work
currently assists the National Acid Rain Program.
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APPENDIX B: DOE
Data Management
CO2 and Climate. Data bases, models and bibliographic information about the global carbon cycle
are maintained at the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center. Data documentation supports
models of forcings, feedbacks and prediction of atmospheric CO₂ and methane. Data quality is
reviewed, and exchange of data is fostered among scientists and other users. Communication of CO2
and climate information is carried out among scientists, policy makers and the interested public.
Contributing ($31.1M)
Research
Ocean Margin Processes. The objective is to determine the production and transport of material on
the U.S. coastal ocean margins and its interaction with the open ocean. Studies include watermass
movements, currents and upwelling dynamics; flux and formation of organic and mineral particles in
water column and sediment; biologic productivity including nutrients and lower level food chains.
This research is providing information on carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus cycles in coastal systems
and the role and volume of injection into the open ocean and exchange with the atmosphere.
Fundamental Chemistry. Provide fundamental knowledge of atmospheric and combustion
chemistry processes for reliable modeling of gas/particle emission, including analytical techniques for
characterizing trace components of the atmosphere. Understanding of separation techniques is used in
emissions reduction technology.
Air-Surface Exchange. Field research based on the turbulent exchange of atmospheric pollutants in
and above forest canopies and other terrain features provides estimates of dry deposition. Deposition
fluxes are measured from air concentrations and aerosol collection efficiencies by surrogate surface
collectors. Field data are used by the National Acid Rain Program. Relationships to global change are
the ability of forests to remove atmospheric pollutants and the causes and effects of desertification.
Atmospheric Chemistry. Studies of chemical and microphysical processes in clouds and
precipitation explore the interactions of water with natural and anthropogenic pollutants in the
atmosphere. Studies of natural and introduced organic species determine their role in modulating the
abundance of secondary pollutant species. Experiments on gas-phase reaction kinetics and gas-particle
conversions characterize secondary pollutant species. Research involves field studies with ground-
based instrumentation networks and airborne sampling platforms as well as laboratory investigations.
Diagnostic models are used to analyze field and laboratory results. The cloud and precipitation studies
support the National Acid Rain Program. The principal relationship to global change is the influence
of primary and secondary pollutants on long range air and precipitation quality. Also relevant is the
ability of storm systems to redistribute pollution on a global basis.
Biological Mechanisms. In supportive research Energy Biosciences emphasizes the understanding
of how biological activities of plants and microorganisms transform key components, such as CO₂,
CH₄, SO₂, NH₄ and of the carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur cycles. Comprehension of the mechanisms by
which these transformations occur and the requisite conditions for the changes is the information being
sought.
Subsurface Transport. The objective is to determine the geochemical processes of transport and
transformation of natural and introduced substances in the subsurface and their movement through
unsaturated and groundwater systems. Studies include molecular level soil/chemical interactions,
distribution and metabolism of microbial communities, and hydrologic modeling.
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APPENDIX B: DOE
Long-Term Observations
Air-Surface Exchange. Routine measurements of dry deposition at several key sites across the U.S.
are currently used for the validation of the acid rain models.
Data Management
Atmospheric Chemistry. The data bases acquired during the various intensive field efforts are
currently used by the National Acid Rain Program for the validation of the source-receptor models.
Data are computer-archived, quality assured and available to the scientific community upon request.
Ecological Systems and Dynamics.
Focused ($4.2M)
Research
CO₂ and Climate. Experimental research and modeling provides information about effects of CO₂
and climate with vegetation and ecological systems. Focus is to determine primary effects from new
experimental data and models, and to validate predicted changes. System-level properties are
examined for CO₂ and climate effects include basic primary productivity; altered structure, function
and composition of ecosystems; plant-animal-microbial relationships; and water balance/hydrology.
The research addresses questions of ecosystem and large-scale biotic response to changes in the
Earth's atmospheric and terrestrial systems, and provides fundamental knowledge on processes and
mechanisms.
Theory in Biological/Physical Systems. The objective is to strengthen and expand a theoretical
underpinning for complex global systems thereby providing better definition for modeling and
experimental design. A central core for development of integrating theory, interactive with data
collection and analyses from local to large-scale processes is being emphasized to obtain better
theoretical definition for processes of global and regional dynamics.
Data Management
CO₂ and Climate. Data bases, models, and bibliographic information about vegetation and
ecological systems are maintained at the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center. Data
documentation supports models of ecosystem response and prediction of ecosystem change. Data
quality is reviewed, and exchange of data is fostered among scientists and other users.
Communication of CO₂ and climate information is carried out among scientists, policy makers and the
interested public.
Contributing ($8.3M)
Research
Ecosystem Research. Effects of multiple impacts on critical ecosystems and resiliency of the
ecosystems are determined. Changes in energy, water usage and nutrients are quantified in
ecosystems impacted by both natural and human induced stresses to detect early signs of ecological
change; research includes holistic multidisciplinary studies on regional watersheds and landscapes
ranging from climate sensitive arctic tundra and semiarid sites to humid, and subtropical regions which
are primarily located on the large DOE National Environmental Research Parks. These studies over
four decades provide the data for elucidation of regional patterns to biosphere response of
environmental change.
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APPENDIX B: DOE
Long-Term Observations
Ecosystem Research. For over 30 years basic environmental data continues to be collected at five
DOE National Environmental Research Parks providing a baseline for determining fluctuations and
trends in naturally and artificially stressed ecosystems. Computer networks are being established
between the DOE National Environmental Research Parks and Arctic sites for exchange and
intercomparison of data sets. Data sets are being developed for compatibility and use with the Federal
Interagency Data Management Group.
Earth System History
Contributing ($0.4M)
Research
Geosciences. Studies of possible impacts of bolides on Earth's biota, including possible correlation
of variations in concentrations of rare Earth elements and mass extinctions that have long been used as
geological time markers.
Long-Term Observations
Geosciences. Measurements of iridium and other elements across the C-T and other boundaries
using samples from throughout the world.
Human Interactions
Focused ($2.0)
Research
CO₂ and Climate. Analysis provides estimates of future CO₂ emissions. Objective is to understand
technologies for producing/transforming and using energy, and the technologies for
recovering/sequestering CO₂ emissions, including relationships between technology, economics,
ecology, geology and other factors. Scope includes scientific, technological and socio-economic data
needed to project future energy use trends/patterns and associated emissions of 'greenhouse' gases.
Potential improvement of energy output per unit of CO₂ emission is determined for conventional and
advanced fossil fuel technologies. Expected reduction of CO2 emission from different energy (e.g.,
efficiency profiles, alternative technology mixes) and environmental control technologies are assessed.
Data Management
CO₂ and Climate. Data bases, models and bibliographic information about energy systems are
maintained at the Carbon Dioxide Information Center. Data quality is reviewed, and exchange of data
is fostered among scientists and other users.
Solid Earth Processes.
Contributing ($6.7M)
Research
Geosciences. Examine geophysics and geochemistry of crustal rock, fluid systems, volatile
emissions and transport processes. The field program, including Continental Scientific Drilling
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APPENDIX B: DOE
investigates rock deformation, crustal response and seismicity, and develops the knowledge base for
remote sensing of reservoir structures. Results provide a quantitative understanding for predicting
energy-related Earth processes.
Long-Term Observations
Geosciences. Acquisition of seismic data at locations of special interest for understanding crustal
processes.
Data Management
Geosciences. Includes data sets concerning federal drilling activities, brine properties, and
measurements resulting from DOE managed Continental Scientific Drilling Projects.
Solar Influences
Focused ($1.0M)
Research
Geosciences. Studies of solar-terrestrial-atmospheric interaction help understand one of the factors
that may initiate or perpetuate global change, namely: solar variations and their coupling to the Earth
and near-Earth environment. Studies include: energy transport in near-Earth space plasma; the solar
wind-magnetospheric interaction; energetic particle phenomena from a few keV to many MeV;
radiation from space and astrophysical plasmas; magnetic field annihilation in the magnetosphere and
its applications to the Earth and near-Earth environment; solar physics and the dynamics of the sun;
and the employment of long-term changes in the shape and diameter of the Sun as an indirect
diagnostic of changes in the solar constant.
Long-Term Observations
Geosciences. Long-term measurements of solar insolation, energy transfer, space plasma and
magnetospheric substorms and their impact on U.S. energy systems.
Data Management
Geosciences. Collection and management of data sets from long-term outer atmospheric
observations.
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APPENDIX B: DOI
Department of the Interior (DOI)
Climate and Hydrologic Systems
Focused ($1.8M)
Research
Snow and Ice. Remote sensing studies of snow and ice dynamics as a means of gaining
understanding of: ice/atmosphere interactions, glacier mass-balance and sea ice extent as indicators of
climate. (United States Geological Survey)
Evapotranspiration Processes. Studies of the rate of evapotranspiration from areas of natural
vegetation as a function of atmospheric conditions, vegetation and land surface conditions, and
moisture availability. Advances in these studies are needed for estimation of the water balance (runoff
and ground water recharge) under various climatic scenarios. (United States Geological Survey)
Modeling. Development of more realistic treatment of hydrologic processes in atmospheric models;
collaboration with climate modeling community, such as the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
(GFDL) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), to develop capability to improve
the characterization of hydrologic conditions and processes which are the primary driving forces
behind energy and moisture fluxes at the land/atmosphere interface. The purpose of this work is to
improve the accuracy of atmospheric models used to predict climate change and the resulting water
budgets for the earth's surface. (United States Geological Survey)
Hydroclimatology. Study of the relationship between atmospheric circulation and hydrologic
conditions (primarily streamflow). These studies should provide improved capabilities to predict the
water-resources implications (in terms of water supplies, and the probabilities of droughts, and floods)
more directly from atmospheric circulation model outputs. (United States Geological Survey)
Integrated River Basin Studies. Study of the impacts of various climate change scenarios (changes
in temperatures and precipitation amounts) on entire river basins. This involves estimation of changes
in evapotranspiration, runoff, ground water recharge, water use, sea level, and the resulting changes in
water quality (especially salinity) in estuaries and coastal aquifers. In 1989 such research is underway
in the Delaware River Basin; it is aimed at development of appropriate tools for hydroclimatic impact
assessment. (United States Geological Survey)
Glacier Monitoring. Research effort satellite and aerial remote sensing of the world's glaciers, with
emphasis on high latitudes, for evidence of glacier response to global warming. Melting of glacier ice
will be the primary contributor to the projected rise in sea level. (United States Geological Survey)
Contributing ($90.6M)
Research
Spatial Data Collection and Analysis Techniques. Development of advanced tools and techniques
(e.g. geographic information systems, remote sensing technology, and computer modeling for spatial
Earth-science data base integration) contributes to linking climate change to Earth surface changes.
(United States Geological Survey)
Hydrologic Processes. Development and application of methods of measurement and assessment of
water resources at the local, regional, and national scales. This includes work on streamflow, ground
water movement in the saturated and unsaturated zones, estuary hydrodynamics, and associated
studies of geomorphology and sediment transport. (United States Geological Survey)
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APPENDIX B: DOI
Geographic Information System (GIS) Research. Development of GIS and other spatial data
analysis tools and techniques to support research involving climate and hydrologic systems. This
includes techniques for geographic analysis and modeling of space- and time-dependent phenomena
using large mutidisciplinary earth-science data sets. (United States Geological Survey)
Long-Range Transport Modeling. Develop and apply Eulerian models to make estimates of
pollutant concentrations on a regional scale. Model estimates include sulfur dioxide, sulfate, and
ozone concentrations based on approximations of long-range transport and dispersion, dry and wet
deposition, and chemical transformation. (National Park Service)
Physical Oceanography. Program consists of studies of the circulation patterns within the Outer
Continental Shelf and the mechanisms creating those patterns. An understanding of the general
dynamics allows for the support of diagnostic and predictive modeling efforts. (Minerals Management
Service)
"Greenhouse" Warming Effect. Studies with emphasis on addressing the effects of climatic change
on water supplies and water use and appropriate coping strategies for managing the water resources of
the West for various scenarios include: (a) preparing inventories of watershed sensitivity to climatic
change, (b) research studies to bridge the gap of uncertainty between general circulation model output
and hydrologic models. (Bureau of Reclamation)
Changing Water Requirements. Analytical review of changing water needs and development of
improved methods for calculating water demands, including accommodation of climate change.
(Bureau of Reclamation)
Surface and Groundwater Characterization. The program objectives include evaluating factors
affecting surface runoff, erosion and stream flow; groundwater levels and characteristics. Information
is being gathered that will be helpful in understanding likely effects of changing climate on hydrology
and water quality. (Bureau of Land Management)
Long-Term Observations
National Map and Digital Data Production. Maps and digital data provide basic land surface
information for studies of climate and hydrologic systems. (United States Geological Survey)
Water Resources Data. Operation of a national network of data collection stations (and associated
data base) where basic information on water resources is gathered. These data include streamflow and
river, lake, or reservoir stage determinations at about 12,500 sites, and measurements of ground-
water levels or pumpage at about 34,000 locations. Although these data have not been collected for
this specific purpose, they are a key element of the analysis of the hydrologic aspects of global change.
(United States Geological Survey)
Fire Weather/Climate Studies. 200 Remote Automatic Weather Stations (RAWS) spaced on 75 mile
grid continuously monitor real time weather in the western United States. A lightning detection system
is operated in conjunction with weather stations. Monitoring data are archived in a data management
system. These stations are compiling weather/climate data from remote areas of the western U.S.
where climate data has previously not been available. This information is particularly valuable in the
arid and semi-arid areas of the west where the large spatial and temporal variability of temperature and
precipitation already presents a significant challenge to natural resource management. Regional
influences of global climate change may be better interpreted with use of these stations. (Bureau of
Land Management)
Weather and Tide Stations. In compliance with the Compacts of Free Association, Territorial and
International Affairs (TIA) reimburses the National Weather Service (NWS) for operating and
maintaining weather stations and tide stations in the Republic of the Marshall Islands, the Federated
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APPENDIX B: DOI
States of Micronesia, and Palaie (Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands). The weather stations provide
forecasts and storm warnings. The tide stations are part of the Tsunami Warning System. The NWS
cooperates with the Navy. (Territorial and International Affairs)
Fine Particle Monitoring. Obtains aerosol mass, ion, organic carbon, elemental carbon, and trace
elements in two size ranges using multi-stage cyclone particulate samplers at 34 parks. The program
includes quality assurance, data reduction, and data base management. (National Park Service)
Data Management
Information and Data Services. Includes acquiring, archiving, managing, and integrating graphic,
digital, and remotely sensed data which contribute to studies of climate and hydrologic systems.
(United States Geological Survey)
Biogeochemical Dynamics
Focused ($0.2M)
Research
Carbon Cycle Research. Development of improved understanding of the role of carbon in
hydrologic and geologic processes (precipitation and dissolution of carbonates in marine, estuarine,
and terrestrial environments) and the fate, transport, and biogeochemical role of natural organic
compounds in a variety of environments. (United States Geological Survey)
Contributing ($1.2M)
Research
Gas Content of Evaporite Formations. Techniques developed to measure gas content of evaporite
formations (salt, potash, and trona) for methane. In addition, a new method for determining methane
gas content of coal will be validated. (Bureau of Mines)
Long-Term Observation
Air Quality. Studies primarily monitor dispersion of airborne contaminants (CO, SOx, NOx, VOC,
and particulates) at Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) platforms and an array of offshore buoys. Data is
collected to develop a data base from which trends could be determined. (Minerals Management
Service)
Ecological Systems and Dynamics
Contributing ($36.6M)
Research
Plant Growth Rate. Studies of the growth rate of bottom hardwood forest species were initiated (1)
to identify relationships between seasonal tree growth and major environmental factors including
subsurface water level, (2) to analyze historical tree growth from three lowland sites in southern
Illinois for influences by flooding and other environmental factors identified above, (3) to compare
historical growth of several bottom and oaks in terms of their response to environmental conditions
and (4) to determine the historical changes in the diversity of wetland communities. (Office of Surface
Mining, Reclamation & Enforcement)
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APPENDIX B: DOI
Rangeland Ecosystems. Research in the northern Great Basin to understand better the effects of fire
on rangeland ecosystems. Studies of plant varieties and their resistance to wildfire and tolerance to
increasing aridity and thermal stress possibly occurring as a result of climate change. (Bureau of Land
Management & Bureau of Indian Affairs)
Integrated Ecological Research in Small Watersheds. Pilot research program in remote "natural"
watersheds to evaluate natural and anthropogenic influences on ecosystem processes, including
biogeochemical cycles. (National Park Service)
Research on Species Populations. Field and laboratory research to determine environmental
tolerances and habitat requirements for selected plant and animal species. The program focuses
substantially on species and their ecological importance, sensitivity to change, or potential ability to
take advantage of ecological disturbance. In addition to studies of native species, major emphasis is on
the ecology of non-native invasive species, insect pests and disease organisms, and experimental
evaluation of chemical, cultural, mechanical, and biological methods for control. (National Park
Service)
Man and the Biosphere Program. Interdisciplinary research relating to global change is one of
several priorities of the U.S. Man and the Biosphere Program will facilitate use of the international
network of biosphere reserves as "biosphere observatories" for comparative interdisciplinary studies of
global change. In FY 89, USMAB co-funded initiation of an integrated cooperative program including
multimedia background pollutant monitoring, ecological studies, and watershed research involving
paired watershed sites in the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. (tundra-taiga ecotone, northern hardwood forests,
mountain broad-leafed forests). Other proposals under MAB review relating to global change focus on
wildfire risk assessment, dynamics of ecotones, establishment of circumpolar observatories,
subsistence uses, environmental archaeology, synthesis of historical data, and a case study of the
Everglades. (National Park Service)
Wilderness Management Studies. Inventory of wilderness and wilderness study area characteristics,
baseline monitoring of sensitive indicators. Baseline monitoring of these remote and unique areas will
provide a basis for studying the long-term trends of these ecosystems with minimal influence from
mans' development. Approximately 25 million acres in 860 separate tracts have been identified as
wilderness study areas. (Bureau of Land Management)
Biology. These studies describe the distribution and interactions of benthic and pelagic communities
and populations. The studies describe the biological aspects of fisheries, birds, turtles and non-
endangered species, as well as the dynamics of population changes. Monitoring is long-term and
reflects population and community response to changing climatic and marine conditions. (Minerals
Management Service)
GIS Applications in Landscape Analysis. Analysis of distributional patterns of species and
ecological communities in relation to climatological, hydrological, edaphic, land use, and other
landscape variables is being conducted routinely in many NPS areas using several GIS software
packages. Notable applications involve modeling of ecosystem interactions at Everglades National
Park, and development of potential habitat maps for spotted owl, bald eagle, grizzly bear,and peregrine
falcon at North Cascades National Park. (National Park Service)
Wetland Loss in the Mississippi Delta and Louisiana. Study to document the rate and location of
loss of coastal wetlands in Louisiana, especially the Mississippi Delta. Although this loss has been the
result of many factors, including relative sea level rise, EPA has used these loss rates to project
nationwide losses. FWS is now looking at (1) changes in the rate of loss, (2) attempting to quantify
the contributions to the loss rate from the various courses (channelization and subsequent erosion;
subsidence from oil and gas production; loss of sediments from construction of levees; sea level rise).
(Fish & Wildlife Service)
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APPENDIX B: DOI
Assessment of Biological Diversity on Preserves. Development of protocols and methodologies
which use species richness and biological diversity to identify and map habitat for protection and
management of wildlife, including endangered species. Although designed to be used as a tool for
acquisition and management of preserved areas, it will provide overlay maps of specific terrestrial
habitats and biological diversity and species richness indices. These would be useful both in planning
for response to climate change, and as baselines to assess the impact of climate change. (Fish &
Wildlife Service)
Species Status and Habitat Research. Studies to understand the distribution and habitat requirements
of endangered species. Because they live on the edge of survival and are often highly dependent on
specific habitat types, even subtle changes in habitat (or climate) may cause a noticeable impact on their
abundance and distribution. For this reason, endangered species have often been suggested as
excellent indicators of climate change. (Fish & Wildlife Service)
Vegetation Classification and Analysis. Development of site specific ecological classifications using
photo interpretation and digital image analysis for incorporation into park geographic information
systems, including limited R&D relating to techniques and applications. The baseline classifications
may be useful in characterizing changes in potentially sensitive ecological communities (e.g. disjunct
communities; ecotonal areas such as timberlines), or changes in the distribution of dominant species.
The NPS has technical capability in assessing vegetation trends using historical and contemporary
photography and satellite imagery. (National Park Service)
Baseline Monitoring of Ecological Communities. Development of basic information on the
structure, ecological relationships, species composition, spatial distribution, and phenology of
ecological communities in NPS units. Data sets from permanent plots in many parks document
ecological succession following natural and anthropogenic disturbance, as well as trends in mature
natural communities. Baseline information on ecological conditions and trends in NPS areas will
contribute to process and effects studies of ecosystems likely to be sensitive to global change,
including: Relict communities, high latitude forest and tundra communities, coral reef and kelp
communities, coastal barrier communities, ecotonal communities, and altitudinal gradient communities.
(National Park Service)
Baseline Monitoring of Species Populations. Development of basic information on long-term trends
in the structure, dynamics, genetics, and habitat associations of animal and plant populations utilizing
NPS areas for all or part of their life cycles. Emphasis is on population parameters that are easily
measured, sensitive to stress, and useful in forecasting future population trends. Involves monitoring
of species potentially sensitive to global change, including endemic, rare, threatened, or endangered
species; species with strict habitat requirements; potential opportunistic species such as insect pests,
disease organisms (including ticks and other vectors of human disease), and invasive nonnative
species; as well as species important in regulating ecosystem processes which, if affected by global
change, would significantly influence species trophic and/or community relationships in park
ecosystems. (National Park Service)
Pilot Inventory and Monitoring Program. Development of guidelines for systematic inventory and
monitoring of park resources. The program includes assessment of the status of existing inventory
and monitoring activities, and design and implementation of pilot projects in selected NPS areas to
provide models for long-term monitoring of a wide range of park ecosystems. (National Park Service)
National Wetlands Inventory and Mapping. National responsibility for the inventory and mapping
of wetlands of the United States. This effort, currently scheduled for completion in FY 1998 for the
lower 48 coterminous states, has provided baseline maps and data of wetland acreage, distribution,
and type. It not only provides mapped, site-specific information, but statistically significant data on
wetland losses (acreage), changes (types), and trends. As wetlands are likely to be one of the early
indicators of global climate change effects, the baseline inventory data as well as the status and trends
inventory will be useful to document actual impacts. (Fish & Wildlife Service)
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APPENDIX B: DOI
Migratory Bird Program. Responsibilities for management of migratory birds, especially waterfowl,
require that we annually census waterfowl populations and certain habitats of importance to their
survival. These censuses are international in scope, extending into Canada and accomplished in part
under the Migratory Bird Treaty Act. The census information represents 30 years of data relating to
abundance and distribution, and can serve as a baseline for future change. (Fish & Wildlife Service)
Fish Stock Assessments. Stock assessments or status surveys of fish species and populations in
different watersheds are conducted on a continuing basis. Data for some species and watersheds, e.g.,
salmonids on the Columbia and Snake Rivers, striped bass in Eastern (Gulf and Atlantic) rivers, or
Great Lakes fisheries, are more regular than others; such data are collected annually and used for
management of fishery resources, fish hatcheries, and management of water resources (flows, dams,
etc.). These surveys would serve as baselines for assessing climate change effects on fishery
resources in the face of change. (Fish & Wildlife Service)
Rangeland Studies. Ecological site baseline studies and inventory, vegetation monitoring and trend.
Ecological site inventories are conducted to determine baseline data on large areas (4 million acres in
FY 89). Vegetation monitoring studies include assessment of plant community indicators such as
frequency of species, density, ground cover, and key climate parameters related to vegetative growth
i.e. precipitation, temperature. A fundamental objective of rangeland monitoring in the western U.S.
is to distinguish between the activities of man and the influence of climate over time in the rangeland
ecosystem. (Bureau of Land Management & Bureau of Indian Affairs)
Wildlife, Fish, and Threatened and Endangered Species. Wildlife habitat monitoring and trends
studies, threatened and endangered species inventory and monitoring. The streams, lakes, reservoirs,
and rivers on public lands provide key habitat for many species of cold and warm water fish. BLM
administers 13,000 miles of anadromous fish streams and 20,000 miles of stream habitats for resident
game fish. Climatic influences on surface and groundwater flow is critical to the future of these
riparian areas. Monitoring of threatened and endangered species (T/E) provides a very sensitive
measure of mans activities. Studies to implement recovery of certain T/E species will provide insight
into the capability of various ecosystems to adapt and survive future management actions. (Bureau of
Land Management)
Endangered Species. The objectives of the endangered species studies are to obtain data pertaining
to the distribution and interrelations of species listed as "endangered" or "threatened" and to determine
potential effects of OCS oil spills, on these species. Animal tagging and monitoring is an important
feature of this program. (Minerals Management Service)
Data Management
Natural Resource Data Management. Automated data systems and natural resource data bases
including soils, vegetation, ecological condition, wilderness, air and water quality, and climate
information. (Bureau of Land Management)
NPFlora and NPFauna Database. The National Park Service manages NPFlora, an automated
checklist and information base on vascular plants documented from 148 NPS areas. Where UTM
coordinates exist, locations of known species occurrences are integrated into park GIS data bases.
Most of the more than 75,000 records for vascular plants are not precisely geo-referenced. A
comparable Service-wide data base, NPFauna, is being developed for vertebrate fauna in cooperation
with The Nature Conservancy. These data bases have potential applications in recording and
summarizing changes in species occurrence that may be related to global change. (National Park
Service)
Natural resource collections. Natural resource collections from National Park System areas are
sources of information for correlating evidences of global change. In particular, biological,
environmental, paleoecological and archaeological collections can provide useful evidence of long-
term trends. A pilot collections management plan being developed for Great Smoky Mountains
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APPENDIX B: DOI
National Park will consider the role of natural resource collections in integrated ecological monitoring
and research in biosphere reserves. The plan will include particular requirements for documentation,
preservation, and use of types of collections relevant to research on global change in the Southern
Appalachians. (National Park Service)
Earth System History
Focused ($1.3M)
Research
Paleoclimatology and Paleohydrology. Research directed at establishing the rate, frequencies, and
magnitudes of climate change through analysis of the geologic record (including terrestrial and marine
cores and related botanical and geochemical records) and provides information on the prehistoric
natural variability of climate during the last thousands to millions of years. This information on past
climates is providing data to improve and test general circulation models (GCMs) that are being used to
predict future climates. The following topics of research will be emphasized:
Paleohydrology: Reconstruction of hydrologic and climatic conditions in the Great Basin during the
past 1 million years with emphasis on the past 25,000 years.
Terrestrial Coring: Mechanized core drilling to obtain long, continuous records of terrestrial climate
conditions at a variety of key geographic locations.
Pliocene Climates: Synoptic reconstruction of global climates and environments during warm
intervals of early Pliocene as analog for greenhouse warming in the next century.
Ice Core Glaciology: Development of new capability in the USGS to study paleoclimate data
preserved in glacier ice cores from Greenland, Antarctica, and other ice caps.
Paleoecology: Application of paleontological data and methods to reconstruction of past climates, and
the impacts of past changes on ecosystems.
Isotopic Analysis: Application of isotopic methods to provide chronological measure of climate-
sensitive isotopic variations through time.
Desertification/Desert Processes: Expansion of existing USGS research on desertification and other
climate-sensitive surficial processes. Includes monitoring of climate and erosion/depositional
processes in arid regions.
Marine Paleoclimates: Research aimed at obtaining high quality records of paleooceanographic and
paleoclimatic history preserved in marine sediment cores.
Permafrost Studies: Monitoring of permafrost temperatures and heat-flow profiles in Alaska and
other high latitude sites in both polar regions for evidence of global warming; studies of changes in the
distribution and depth of permafrost.
Glacial History: Reconstruction of past changes in the extent of glacier ice during the past 2 million
years. (United States Geological Survey)
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APPENDIX B: DOI
Contributing ($0.6M)
Research
Geochronology. Provides the essential time scales to the geologic record that permit reconstruction
of the history of climatic changes and other events. (United States Geological Survey)
Dendrochronology. Studies establish chronological tree-ring data files from the present time to as far
back as datable specimens, living and dead, will allow. On-going NPS research focuses on
developing fire histories for NPS areas including information on the seasonality of fire in western
parks, histories of drought events in midwestern parks, mapping the frequency and areal extent of
tsunamis in Alaskan coastal areas, and correlating climatic changes and pre-European social
disruptions in the western United States. (National Park Service)
Paleoecology. Analysis of sediment cores from lakes, ponds, salt marshes, barrier islands and tidal
flats to correlate chemical and biotic changes in sediments with past changes in climate, sea level,
vegetation and anthropogenic influences. (National Park Service)
Environmental Archaeology. Studies develop correlative evidence of past climatic and ecological
conditions from cultural artifacts and biological materials from archaeological excavations. (National
Park Service)
Human Interactions
Focused ($1.5M)
Research
Land Surface and Geographic Processes. Research is conducted on the interactions between human
activities and natural processes by inventorying vegetation, land-use changes; and determining
environmental impacts. This research involves integrating remotely sensed data and Earth-science data
for applications such as vegetation monitoring as an indicator of cultural impacts. (United States
Geological Survey)
Coastal Processes. Research effort aimed at assessing the geologic consequences of climate change
and resultant impact on human activities on our coastlines. Global climate warming is expected to
accelerate the rise in sea level, and many nations will be faced with difficult decisions on whether to
attempt to protect or to abandon the coast. Through a better understanding of coastal processes and the
sediment budget of the coastal zone associated with a rising sea level an improvement in our ability to
predict future erosion and rapidity of coastal retreat will be possible. (United States Geological
Survey)
Contributing ($68.1M)
Research
Landslide Hazards. Identifies and maps high-risk populated areas on the basis of conditions
preceding historic landslides, morphological evidence of past failure, and analysis of geologic setting
having landslide potential. (United States Geological Survey)
Water Quality. This research is focused on the fate and transport of chemical constituents in rivers,
ground water, and estuaries. These studies include analyses of the role of river discharge, land use,
effluent discharges, atmospheric deposition, geologic and soil materials, and various aquatic and
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APPENDIX B: DOI
terrestrial organisms, erosion and sediment transport and deposition. (United States Geological
Survey)
Geographic Information System (GIS) Research. Development of GIS and other spatial data
analysis tools and techniques to support research on the interface between human activities and natural
processes. This includes techniques for geographic analysis and modeling of space- and time-
dependent phenomena using large multidisciplinary earth-science data sets. (United States Geological
Survey)
Shoreline Recession Associated with Developed Shorelines. The research establishes rates of
retreat, mechanisms of retreat, and separates causes of retreat (sea level rise, storms, and altered rates
of sediment supply due to dredging, coastal stabilization, and other human activities), then assesses
degree of threat to human communities within park boundaries, NPS developments, and NPS natural
areas, as appropriate. The program includes frequent updating of an extensive network of shoreline
surveys. (National Park Service)
Resource Ethnography. Ethnographic studies of resource uses by natives and other small-scale
societies provide empirical benchmarks for monitoring effects of global change. This year, a study of
changing subsistence adaptations, and subsistence mapping, is being completed at Lake Clark. Similar
studies are programmed for future initiation in northwest Alaska. (National Park Service)
Cultural Resource Studies. Inventory and scientific evaluation of archaeological and paleontological
resources evidencing prehistoric human adaptation to the environment. Archaeological and
paleontological inventories and evaluations can provide insight into mans' ability to adapt to the
climatic influences of prehistoric environments and evidence of the vegetative adaptations that may
have been cultured by man. About 125,000 archaeological and historic properties have been recorded
representing the tangible remains of thousands of years of human adaptation to the environment.
(Bureau of Land Management)
Long-Term Observations
National Map and Digital Data Production. Maps and digital data provide basic land surface
information for studies of human activities and natural processes. (United States Geological Survey)
Water Quality Networks. The USGS operates over 12,000 water-quality monitoring stations.
Among these are the only two national networks for water quality monitoring: NASQAN (about 500
stations) that measure the status and trends and estimated fluxes of many constituents from the major
river basins of the Nation; and the Hydrologic Benchmark Network (about 50 stations) in highly
pristine locations which are thus very sensitive to atmospheric driven changes (precipitation amounts
and precipitation chemistry) as opposed to being sensitive to terrestrial impacts of man. The USGS
also coordinates the National Trends Network for measuring atmospheric deposition of major ions at
about 150 stations nationwide. (United States Geological Survey)
Data Management
Information and Data Services. Includes acquiring, archiving, managing, and integrating graphic,
digital, and remotely sensed data which contribute to studies of human interactions and natural
processes. (United States Geological Survey)
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APPENDIX B: DOI
Solid Earth Processes
Focused ($0.5M)
Research
Coastal Processes. Drawing on the present USGS Coastal Erosion Program, the program would be
expanded nationally beyond present studies of barrier erosion in Louisiana to include the densely
populated portions of the barrier islands of the Mid- Atlantic and southeast coasts, and the Alaskan
coast where, particularly in the Arctic, erosion rate of 10 m or more per year have been recorded. The
research will be conducted in close cooperation with the appropriate State Geological Surveys and
University coastal researchers. The emphasis will be on coastal processes and changes by sea level
rise and the potential impact of mitigation measures. (United States Geological Survey)
Volcano Processes. Research effort aimed at achieving a better understanding of explosive and
effusive volcanic eruptions. Of particular importance to global climate change is the volume of tephra
(volcanic ash, CO₂, SO₂, and other gases which are injected into the atmosphere during such events.
Cooperation will eventually be undertaken with climate modelers to better link geological observations
to global circulation models. (United States Geological Survey)
Contributing ($11.8M)
Research
Dynamics of Coastal Systems. The program continues 25 years of NPS research in coastal
geomorphology, applied research on beach/dune dynamics, estuarine processes, sediment transport by
waves and currents, and backbarrier sedimentation, and barrier island studies at national seashores and
other coastal parks. The research includes projections of future landscape change based on long-term
observations to establish variability and long-term trends in coastal processes. A proposal for a major
coastal and marine park initiative beginning in FY 90, including climate change impact studies, is now
being completed. (National Park Service)
Volcanic Eruptions. Program to investigate the volume, distribution, and chemical and physical
characteristics of erupted materials; work with NOAA and other Federal agencies to relate volcanic
products and processes to change in climate and sensitive environments. (United States Geological
Survey)
Landslide Hazards. Landslides occur most frequently during and after periods of heavy precipitation
and, therefore, are related to a change to wetter climates, studies of historic landslides will provide
additional information on this empirical correlation. (United States Geological Survey)
Offshore Geologic Survey. Geologic Long-Range Inclined Asdic (GLORIA) side-scan sonar
images permit the identification and geographic location of large numbers of previously unknown
submarine volcanos and areally massive lava flows on the sea floor that, when active, can inject gases
and other eruptive products into the ocean and atmosphere, thereby causing short- or long-term
changes in climate. Of particular interest are studies of volcanic processes taking place on or adjacent
to the crest of active spreading ridges, intraplate volcanos, and volcanic arcs. (United States
Geological Survey)
Geographic Information System (GIS) Research. Development of GIS and other spatial data
analysis tools and techniques to support research involving solid earth processes. This includes
techniques for geographic analysis and modeling of space- and time-dependent phenomena using large
multidisciplinary earth-science data sets. (United States Geological Survey)
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APPENDIX B: DOI
Long-Term Observations
Earthquake Data and Information Service. The USGS operates a Global Seismographic Network.
The Network is currently being expanded and modernized in a cooperative venture in the National
Science Foundation's Global Change and Continental Lithosphere Programs. Improved information
on seismicity helps to define small-scale lithospheric plate deformation that can change apparent sea
level, be used in forecasting great earthquakes, and perhaps, indirectly, influence volcanic activity.
(United States Geological Survey)
Volcano Hazards. Three volcano observatories (the Hawaiian, Cascades, and Alaska Volcano
Observatories) are maintained to gather data associated with effusive and explosive volcanic activity.
Considerable effort is made to improve the methodology of predicting volcanic eruptions. Predictions
of major eruptions can impact whole countries and might, in the future, themselves be factors in global
change; in addition, a prediction of a great eruption would enable researchers in global change to
prepare for measurements in impact. (United States Geological Survey)
Offshore Geologic Surveys. The USGS operates, in cooperation with NOAA, a GLORIA side-scan
sonar system to acquire images of the sea floor within the Exclusive Economic Zone of the United
States. (United States Geological Survey)
National Map and Digital Data Production. Maps and digital data provide basic land surface
information for studies of solid earth processes. (United States Geological Survey)
Data Management
Information and Data Services. Includes acquiring, archiving, managing, and integrating graphic,
digital, and remotely sensed data which contribute to studies of solid earth processes. (United States
Geological Survey)
Solar Influences
Contributing ($2.0M)
Long-Term Observations
Geomagnetism. Monitor changes in global geomagnetism through a network of 11 observatories
and by field surveys. The monitoring of real-time magnetic indices provides basic information on
changes in the Earth's magnetic field, and its atmosphere. (United States Geological Survey)
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APPENDIX B: EPA
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
Climate and Hydrologic Systems
Focused ($0.7M)
Research
Regional Climatic Scenario Production. To provide physically plausible and analytically coherent
descriptions of regionalized climate conditions under "greenhouse" conditions. Assessment of
potential effects of "greenhouse" effects requires that regional climatic conditions be determined.
Currently, even the most highly-resolved General Circulation Models cannot provide realistic regional
resolution, although they will be used to the maximum extent feasible. To circumvent this restriction,
this scenario research uses historical or proxy data (such as from tree rings or oxygen isotope ratios)
and regional models, where available, to develop detailed regional climate descriptors, or scenarios.
This research will, in the near-term, provide scenarios of plausible climatic conditions under various
greenhouse conditions, allowing analyses of sensitivity of regional-scale ecological processes to be
assessed. The scenarios will provide detailed conditions to a variety of research to support an
integrated basis for analysis of interlocked systems, such as hydrology and freshwater fisheries.
Air Quality. To provide evidence of changing air quality due to changing global and regional
climates and, in particular, the effect of increased UV irradiance on ozone formation and air quality.
Cities presently in compliance with the NAAQS for ozone may not be in compliance in the future if UV
irradiance increases due to the depletion of stratospheric ozone, or if other climate related changes
occur in tropospheric chemical reactivity. Synergistic reactions among precursors, UV irradiance, and
ozone are important parts of this research.
Contributing ($13.9M)
Research
Regional Acid Deposition Model. To model the transport and transformation of emissions. The
modeling of the contribution of one region to the deposition in another requires that credible and
efficient quantification of complex atmospheric processes be described in an appropriate model. This
research includes field evaluation of the performance of the model, leading to source attribution for
regional deposition.
Regional Oxidant Model. To model the chemistry and transport of oxidants within the boundary
layer. Oxidants in the troposphere are an increasingly important aspect of air pollution. This research
is developing and testing a regional and mesoscale model of oxidant formation, transport and
destruction within several layers of the boundary layer.
Urban Air Pollution. To model concentrations of urban air pollutants on time scales ranging from
minutes to decades. This research supports the development and evaluation of atmospheric diffusion
of criteria pollutants in many differing situations, such as the effect of highways, plume entrapment in
building wakes in urban regions, and various source configurations, such as individual industrial
plants or urban area sources. The problems addressed by this research include air quality attainment,
the impact of carbon monoxide, and short-term peaks of concentration in urban environments.
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APPENDIX B: EPA
Biogeochemical Dynamics
Focused ($0.8M)
Research
Radiatively Important Trace Gases. To investigate, quantify, and model the emissions of important
RITG's, with early emphasis on methane and nitrous oxide. Methane is emitted by several processes,
both natural and man-made. Among them are important anthropogenic sources, including rice
paddies, and anaerobic, natural wetlands. Nitrous oxide is emitted by man-made combustion, as well
as biogenic nitrogen cycles, including emissions from fertilizer application. The emission factors for
these two RITG's will be investigated, including the effect of increased levels of UV radiation on some
of the processes. Feedback processes in ecosystems are an important part of this effort. In addition, a
coordinated activity with NOAA will study the effect of UV-B radiation on components of important
atmosphere/hydrosphere biogeochemical cycles, including trace-gas precursors (such as VOC's) of
tropospheric ozone. The development of reliable emissions factors for combustion sources of nitrous
oxide is an important near-term product of this research, as is a technological assessment of potential
control methods.
Atmospheric Chemistry Kinetics and Modeling. To quantify and model the kinetics of tropospheric
trace gases in atmospheric conditions. Chemical kinetics of reactive RITG's play an important part in
modeling atmospheric chemistry, and therefore understanding the relations among sources, sinks,
transport, transformation, and reactivity. This research emphasizes development of multiple-gas
interaction kinetics, for input to air quality models on both regional and global scales.
Pollution Interrelationship Research. Interrelationship of other air pollution problems and global
atmospheric change. This includes coordination and joint research with other air programs. In
addition, global climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion will be included in analyses done on
future projections of both tropospheric and stratospheric air quality and planning.
Ozone Depletion Trends. Analysis of changes in stratospheric concentrations and ozone depletion
trends. The EPA will be involved in analysis of trends of concentrations of various atmospheric
compounds and their effects on future atmospheric conditions.
Emissions Sources. Analysis of point and non-point source emissions and their impacts on global
climate change. Such emission areas include livestock, agriculture and man- made sources. Emissions
from these sources play an important role in global climate change and analyses will be conducted to
better understand the dynamics involved in change and the possibilities for limiting or eliminating these
emissions.
Contributing ($3.7M)
Research
Regional Acidic Emissions. To develop detailed emission data bases of acid deposition precursors,
principally SO₂, NOₓ, and VOC's, from all U.S. continental sources, or source aggregations. Current
efforts are focusing on developing an emissions data base for 1990, and on maintaining analytical
models for producing projections of future emissions under a variety of assumed scenario conditions.
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APPENDIX B: EPA
Ecological Systems and Dynamics
Focused ($7.4M)
Research
Regional Climate Change Effects. To investigate the effect of changing climate on ecosystem
processes. Includes interactions with air quality scenarios. Sensitivity of biotic region boundaries to
climatic conditions, and potential alterations under differing scenarios of climate change. Climatic
interactions with ecosystems determine where specific biotic populations and communities exist.
Selected examination of historic and paleoecological records of ecological responses to changing
climate. Over the longer term of research, feedbacks between biogenic responses to changing climate
(including effects of alterations in land use) and biogenic emission rates of RITG's will be investigated
and quantified.
Terrestrial Ecosystems. To investigate and quantify the effects of increased UV-B irradiance at the
Earth's surface. Determination of (1) biochemical, physiological, anatomical, morphological and
phenological changes, (2) mechanistic bases for response, (3) range of species and cultivar variation in
sensitivity, and (4) ability to mitigate potential impact.
Plant Competition. To investigate and quantify the effects of increased UV-B irradiance at the
Earth's surface. To determine the mechanistic basis for the differential sensitivity to UV-B radiation
between species within a natural or agro-ecosystem, competition studies will be carried out within
highly structured field plots.
Forested Ecosystem. To investigate and quantify the effects of increased UV-B irradiance at the
Earth's surface. Loblolly pine seedlings initially have served as the model for forest species to
determine the response of individuals within a forested ecosystem to increased levels of UV-B
irradiance.
Marine Fisheries. To investigate and quantify the effects of increased UV-B irradiance at the
Earth's surface. To determine the impact of UV-B radiation on components of the marine ecosystem,
including those species that serve as a human food source, both micro- and mesocosm studies are
used. The results of these experiments will serve as input variables for various fisheries models.
Long-Term Observations
UV-B Irradiance. To drive the baseline, control exposure for the field experiments at the various
EPA research sites, and also to serve as the core of a developing UV spectral irradiance monitoring
network.
Data Management
Quality Assurance. Due to the potential regulatory implications of EPA's research results, a
comprehensive, peer-reviewed QA/QC and data management program for effects of UV irradiation is
required.
Contributing ($52.4M)
Research
Air Quality Interactions with Ecosystem Processes. To investigate, quantify, and model the impact
of tropospheric air quality on ecosystem productivity and succession. The deleterious effects of
tropospheric ozone are of increasing interest, with implications that have aroused concern for several
other ecosystems, including high elevations. This research addresses damage mechanisms, air
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APPENDIX B: EPA
chemistry during transport and transformation and modeling of biotic response. A near-term product
of this research is a Regional Oxidant Model (ROM) that interfaces with biotic response models now
being constructed.
Water Quality Effects on Ecosystem Processes. To investigate, quantify, and model biotic response
to alterations in water quality. The importance of water quality for maintenance of ecosystem function
is the focus of this research. The investigations include a wide range of important ecosystems,
including wetlands, the Great Lakes, coastal waters, and with respect to hazards, deep oceanic waste
disposal. A strong influence in this research is the development of risk characterization and risk
assessments for aquatic ecosystems, often in conjunction with biotic-response models.
Pesticides Transport and Ecosystem-Level Effects. To trace pesticide movement through
ecosystems, model their transformations and effects, and assess ecosystem-level risk associated with
them. The complex ecological interactions that pesticides engender are the focus of this research, with
field work in coastal waters. Field data collection is included in ecosystem-level models to support
integrated assessments.
Toxic Substances Research. To investigate ecosystem- level effects of toxic substances, with
emphasis on aquatic environments. This research uses microcosm-based methods to investigate the
hazards associated with toxic substances. The results support ecosystem-level assessments of effects,
with attention to quantifying ecological change (Question D). Integrated assessments of ecological risk
is a major emphasis.
Acid Deposition Effects Research. To identify, quantify, and model the ecological effects of acidic
materials deposited on, or transported through, ecosystems. This large research effort has provided
significant advancement to the understanding of acidic materials in ecosystems, both terrestrial and
aquatic. Field studies of forest response to airborne pollutants and of forest ecosystem response to
artificially acidified watersheds are providing valuable inputs to biotic response models. Aquatic
ecosystems have been investigated for both short-term effects related to hydrologic events and longer-
term responses to ecological change. Ecosystems contain many parallel or linked processes that affect
movement of chemicals and water in and through soils, thus significantly affecting growth and
productivity. This research is evaluating the success that ecosystem-scale models of contrasting
resolution possess with respect to predicting ecological responses. A near-term output will be a
description of the success of these models. The National Trends Network provides nationwide
coverage (with widely-spaced samplers) of both wet and dry deposition. The Mountain Cloud
Chemistry Program provides more specialized data regarding fog chemistry, usually at high elevations.
Status and trends data reflecting surface-water chemistry is an important part of this research.
Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP). EPA is initiating EMAP to monitor
the status and trends of the nation's ecosystems and to evaluate the effectiveness of Agency policies
aimed at protecting the ecological resources occurring in these ecosystems. The intent of this program
is to establish a long-term data base on ecosystem condition using a standardized set of indicators and
sampling design. The ecosystems being evaluated include forests, freshwater wetlands, surface
waters, agroecosystems and the near coastal environment, including wetlands, estuaries, and the Great
Lakes. EMAP will use existing data to formulate the study design and it will seek to integrate its
activities with existing federal, regional and state monitoring programs.
Data Management
Data Base Management. To provide archival and retrieval services for long-term monitoring. The
data from long-term observations are routinely archived in large data- base repositories.
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APPENDIX B: EPA
Human Interactions
Focused ($18.5M)
Research
Research/Policy Analysis (Impact Assessment/Adaptive Policies). To improve understanding of the
impacts of climate change on society and to assess potential adaptive policy options. Development of
climate data sets, analyses of national and international impacts on water resources, agriculture, natural
ecosystems and man-made systems; identification of guidance, when warranted for public/private
officials.
Research/Policy Analysis (Stabilizing Strategies). To improve understanding of possible future
global emissions; to assess technological options and costs for limiting emissions; to identify
institutional, economic, and cultural barriers; to identify country-specific options; and to assess
international strategies. Pay-off: policy options for senior government officials involved in
international discussions.
Human Health. To provide critical information on the capacity of UV-B radiation to modulate the
immune system. To determine the adverse health effects, a study will evaluate UV-B-induced changes
in the immune system in human subjects and the influence of skin pigmentation. In addition, a study
coordinated with the Department of Health and Human Services will determine the effects of UV-B
exposure on the incidence, severity and recurrence of a spectrum of infectious diseases in experimental
models.
Support of the Montreal Protocol. Reassessments of effects and technology studies completed in
support of the Montreal Protocol. As part of the U.S. obligations under the Montreal Protocol, The
EPA will be an active participant in a series of assessments based on continuing scientific and
technological advances. These assessments will be completed in 1989 and will be used for the
scheduled renegotiations on the Protocol.
Alternative Technologies and Strategies. Research on alternative technologies and strategies for
regulated chemicals. This involves research and investigation on alternative manufacturing techniques
and chemical compounds to replace those that have been regulated by the Montreal Protocol. In
addition, the EPA will be examining various control strategies and options and will conduct analyses to
weigh the benefits of controls and substitutes.
Implementation of Regulations. Implementation of the U.S. domestic regulations of CFC's and
halons under the Montreal Protocol. This involves the development and enforcement of the domestic
regulation and insurance of compliance of U.S. industry with the Protocol.
Domestic Regulatory Actions. Assessment of the need for further domestic regulatory actions to
implement the Montreal Protocol. The EPA issued an ANPRM on the same day as the final
regulations in which the Agency proposed additional regulatory activities, related auctions or fees, or
direct regulations in the event that industry does not respond quickly enough to reduce their use of
regulated chemicals. The EPA will be conducting research and analyses toward a decision.
International Assessments. Participation in the international assessments of Protocol stringency.
This includes scientific research on the causes and effects of ozone modification and future
atmospheric projections.
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National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
Climate and Hydrologic Systems
Focused ($4.3M)
Research
Earth Observing System (Eos). Development of technology to measure from integrated polar-
orbiting platforms all aspects of the physical climate system, including: Earth radiation budget; surface
temperature (land & ocean); winds; atmospheric temperature and water vapor; atmospheric aerosols;
cloud properties and cover; precipitation rate; ocean circulation and waves; sea ice extent, character,
and motion; snow and ice extent and character; volume and mass balance of terrestrial ice sheets;
surface soil moisture and wetlands extent.
Hydrologic Cycle in Atmosphere-Surface Interactions. To study the spatial and temporal patterns of
the components of hydrologic and climatic processes that control the forcings and the fluxes between
the Earth's surface and its atmosphere. Utilization of remote sensing in studying and assessing the
coupled interactions of the Earth surface with the atmosphere through hydrologic processes. New
proposals have recently been approved for research as part of NASA's Earth Science and Applications
Interdisciplinary Research Program. The goal is improved understanding of the role of hydrologic
components in the climate system at regional and global scales.
Detection of Changes and Identification of Forcings Due to the "Greenhouse Effect" in the Climate
System. To search for evidence of enhanced "greenhouse" warming and for identification of the most
probable forcings in the climate system. Examination of available long-term global data records for the
patterns of change expected in various climatological variables associated with "greenhouse" warming.
New proposals have recently been approved for research as part of NASA's Earth Science and
Applications Interdisciplinary Research Program. The goal is improved ability to detect the signature of
global climatic change due to the "greenhouse" effect.
Contributing ($178.3M)
Research
Remote Sensing Techniques. Advances in our knowledge of climate and hydrologic cycle physical
processes are dependent on the availability of reliable datasets to test and refine climate models. The
primary source of these global data is satellite based remote sensing. NASA supports the development
of improved and advanced techniques for remotely sensing important atmospheric parameters ( e.g.,
passive and active temperature sounding, precipitation, radiation fluxes, evaporation). This includes
supporting laboratory and field measurements, modeling, and data analysis.
Global and Regional Climate Studies. NASA sponsors research on the detection and
characterization of processes associated with the "greenhouse" forcing of climate change. This includes
studies of the global climate record as well as case studies of drought/flood using conventional and
satellite observations in models, diagnostically and prognostically.
Cloud- Radiation Processes. To better understand the role of cloud feedback in climate change,
NASA supports satellite, airborne, and surface-based observations of cloud cover and radiative
properties, data analysis and modeling. This research is organized primarily within the structure of the
First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE), an interagency (NASA, NSF, DOD, and NOAA)
coordinated research program in support of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP). The
results of FIRE are being applied to improving the parameterization of cloud processes in climate
models.
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APPENDIX B: NASA
Global-Scale Weather Process Studies. Use of satellite-derived data and modeling to develop a
better understanding of the processes which maintain the atmospheric general circulation and which
result in the variability commonly called "weather".
Regional Studies of Hydrologic Cycle Components. NASA sponsors and coordinates major field
experiments to understand land surface/vegetation/atmosphere interactions. An example is the First
International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project Field Experiment (FIFE). A concentrated
effort was made to understand important surface/atmosphere interactions such as evapotranspiration.
Hydrologic Cycle in Land-Atmosphere Interaction. To support investigations of the states and
dynamics of the regional and global storages and fluxes of the land components of the Earth's
hydrologic cycle. The research is based on a combination of classical approaches and airborne and
space-based remote sensing techniques. This effort will provide needed information for understanding
the land-atmosphere interaction at the regional and global scales under the global change initiative.
Biosphere Contributions to Atmosphere Circulation. The conduct of multidisciplinary field
experiments to investigate the role of the biosphere in regional and global atmospheric circulation. The
approach is based on the concurrent measurement of surface and atmosphere parameters during certain
states or events with the aid of conventional and remote sensing techniques. This effort will help to
understand the processes that contribute to short-term fluctuations and long-term trends in regional and
global environments.
General Circulation Models (GCM). This effort is intended to provide a tool for studying the
interaction of Earth's land and ocean surface with the atmosphere through simulation and with the aid
of models that properly describe the contributing land surface processes at the regional and global
scales. Deriving input parameters for these models and/or estimating the rate/state of the processes
from remotely sensed data is the ultimate goal. This will provide a non-destructive means of global
monitoring of such processes with the aid of remote sensing and will lead to more accurate prediction
of climate change and its effects.
Ocean Circulation & Air-Sea Interaction. To determine the circulation, heat content, and horizontal
heat flux of the global oceans, how they are influenced by the atmosphere, and how they in turn
influence climate. Spaceborne scatterometer and altimeter observations, in conjunction with
appropriate in-situ measurements - especially those made via NSF's World Ocean Circulation
Experiment (WOCE) and NOAA/NSF's Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program, will be
used to estimate the surface wind stress and topography of the global oceans, from which atmospheric
forcing and ocean current response can be estimated. Altimeter observations from the Navy's Geosat
satellite are being used to estimate seasonal changes in the topography associated with the oceanic
mesoscale circulation. The ultimate benefit is to assess the role of the oceans in the redistribution of
heat from low to high latitudes.
Sea Ice & Ice Sheets. To determine characteristics of polar ice cover, how the atmosphere and
ocean influence variations in these characteristics, and how the variations in turn influence climate.
Spaceborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR), radar altimeter, and microwave radiometer observations of
the polar regions, in conjunction with appropriate in situ measurements, are used to characterize polar
ice cover. Both DMSP/SSMI-derived sea-ice cover and and Geosat/altimeter-derived altimeter ice-
sheet topography estimates are being compiled. The ultimate benefit is to assess the role of sea-ice
cover and ice-sheet topography in changing climate.
Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX). To implement a dedicated altimeter mission, joint with
the French Space Agency (CNES), called TOPEX/POSEIDON, to observe the surface topography of
the global oceans with sufficient accuracy to enable a determination of the mean and variable
circulation, as well as the tides. Development is underway with a launch date in early 1992. TOPEX,
in concert with WOCE and TOGA, should enable the first comprehensive determination of the
circulation of the global oceans.
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APPENDIX B: NASA
NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT). To develop a scatterometer sensor, initially to fly on the Navy's
NROSS satellite but now proposed for the Japanese ADEOS mission, to observe the surface
roughness of the global oceans with sufficient accuracy to enable a determination of the surface wind
stress field. Although the funding level has been recently reduced in view of no formal flight
agreement, development for FY 89/90 is continuing at a level in order to permit NSCAT to meet the
ADEOS launch date of early 1995. NSCAT on ADEOS will observe more than 90% of the global
ocean surface every two days and will enable the first comprehensive determination of the global
surface wind stress field, a prime driving force for the oceanic circulation.
Aircraft Operations :
Land Surface Climatology. Airborne sensors to provide an intermediate scale of
observation to that of ground and satellite sensors for measurement of surface
temperature, moisture conditions, vegetation index, and for estimation of mass and
energy exchanges between the land surface and the atmosphere.
Regional Land Surface Hydrology. Airborne observations of soil surface water
content, of surface water flows and drainage patterns, and of snow extent, depth, and
its equivalent water content (PBMR, ESTAR) are used to study the storages and fluxes
of water within the land components of the hydrologic cycle.
Atmospheric Parameters. Airborne measurements of atmospheric parameters like
aerosol backscatter, rain rate etc. are important for designing appropriate satellite-borne
instruments and in validating remotely-sensed data.
Long-Term Observations
Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE). The objective of ERBE is to acquire a long-term
record of the global and regional radiative fluxes at the top of the Earth's atmosphere to improve our
understanding of storage and transport of energy in the climate system. Current research emphasis is
on the processes associated with cloud forcing and feedback.
Global Hydrologic Processes. NASA utilizes the long-term, multi-frequency passive microwave
observations from the DMSP series of satellites. That data will provide an archive of the climatology
of global precipitation, atmospheric moisture, oceanic evaporation, ocean wind stress, snow cover
extent and soil moisture.
Regional and Global Surface Hydrology. The objective is to provide long-term records of near-
surface soil water content, and surface snow depth and its water equivalent for studying their role in
regional and global hydrologic processes. The approach is based on a combination of surface-based
networks of observations and airborne and space-based measurements of emitted electromagnetic
energy from the surface. This research should help improve the parameterization of hydrologic and
general circulation models.
Mission Operations and Data Analysis (MO&DA). Provides for the extended operations, data
processing, validation, and data analysis of spaceborne missions which observe the Earth radiation
budget, land surface climatology and hydrology, and atmospheric water vapor.
Data Management
NASA Climate Data System (NCDS). To improve the processing and archiving of global and
regional climate data sets and to simplify their accessibility by the scientific community, NASA has
developed the NCDS in conjunction with the National Space Science Data Center. The data made
available through the NCDS include key Earth radiation budget parameters such as albedo, solar
radiation, and thermal radiation as well as sea ice coverage, clouds, and aerosols.
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APPENDIX B: NASA
International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP). The capabilities of current climate
models to address such contemporary climate problems as the greenhouse warming issue is limited
largely by the unavailability of a reliable cloud climatological data set. The production of these needed
global data sets of cloud coverage and radiative properties (e.g., cloud type, opacity, temperature, and
height) is supported by NASA within the framework of the World Climate Research Program
(WCRP). The ISCCP involves the collection and processing of the cloud images acquired by the
international network of operational meteorological satellites. The ISCCP data sets are archived on the
NCDS and at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.
DMSP/SSMI Data Archival. To improve the scientific community's capability to access and work
with spaceborne observations being collected by the DMSP/SSMI microwave radiometer. Global
SSMI water vapor, precipitation, wind-speed and sea-ice cover products are being produced and
archived. A prototype sea-ice archive is being developed for the National Snow and Ice Data Center
(NSIDC) in Boulder, CO; an archive for wind-speed and related products is being set up at JPL in
Pasadena, CA, helping lay the basis for the archival of data from the flight of NSCAT (noted above).
Geosat Data Archival. To improve the community's capability to access and work with
Geosat/altimeter-derived ice-sheet topography of Greenland and certain Antarctic coastal areas.
Topography based on both Seasat (1978) and Geosat (1985-present) has been estimated for
Greenland; the inherent noise in the signal precludes at this time distinguishing any significant change
in the topography over the past ten years, however, the Geosat data suggest that the southern high-
elevation parts of the Greenland ice-sheet are thickening by perhaps 10 cm per year These data are
being archived at NSIDC. Geosat ocean products will be archived at JPL, helping lay the basis for the
archival of data from the TOPEX mission (noted above).
Pilot Land Data System (PLDS). To enhance the access and availability of airborne, space-based,
and ground-based land related data sets by the scientific community, NASA has sponsored
development of PLDS. The data made available through PLDS include an inventory and catalog of
both conventional point measurements as well as remotely sensed image data. PLDS has a significant
role to play in providing access to regional and global data sets by the scientific community studying
the Earth as a system and any change in its climate.
International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project (ISCLCP). This project was formed to
study the extent to which satellite data can be used to study the energy and mass balance exchanges
between the Earth's land surface and the atmosphere. The First ISLSCP Field Project (FIFE) was
conducted to acquire simultaneously and process ground-based, airborne, and space-based
observations of surface energy and mass balance components of hydrological and climatic processes at
the regional scale. Analysis of these data should help provide the needed information for studying the
role of the biosphere in regional climate change, as well as development and testing of algorithms for
deriving the rate and magnitude of land surface processes from remotely sensed data. The FIFE
information system provides the basis for conducting such research.
Alaska SAR Facility To implement a capability to receive, process, archive, and distribute
synthetic aperture radar observations of polar ice cover from European (launch in late 1990), Japanese
(early 1992), and Canadian (1994) satellites. Formal agreements have been consumated with the
European Space Agency and the Japanese Space Development Agency regarding receipt of data from
their spacecraft; an agreement is pending with the Canadians. Not only will this capability permit
detailed observations of the Arctic sea-ice cover, it will also enable the preparation of the first radar-
derived map of the Antarctic continent, revealing characteristics of its ice sheets.
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APPENDIX B: NASA
Biogeochemical Dynamics
Focused ($3.0M)
Research
Earth Observing System (Eos). Development of technology to measure from integrated polar-
orbiting platforms all aspects of the biogeochemical cycles, including: Ocean primary productivity,
atmospheric constituents and energy inputs, land surface characteristics. Eos Advanced Technology
Development (ATD) is currently part of the Environmental Observations Payload and Instrument
Development, and as a program it is scheduled for a New Start in FY91. The goals of the program
will be to provide observing and information systems to study the global change processes, from an
Earth System Science viewpoint. There will be four polar-orbiting platforms, two provided by
NASA, one by ESA, and one by Japan. The instrument complement will include NASA research
facility instruments and principal investigator instruments selected by a NASA Announcement of
Opportunity process. The Data and Information System is an integral part of the program, and it will
have to handle about a terabit of data per day.
Contributing ($147.0M)
Research
Trace Gas Fluxes from Ecosystems and their Fate in the Troposphere. To develop regional- to
continental-scale understanding of sources, sinks, fluxes, and fates of trace gases and of their global
significance. Use of remote-sensing and in situ methods to measure the emissions of radiatively and
photochemically important trace gases from ecosystems and their chemistry and transport in the
troposphere; modeling of biogeochemical cycling processes in ecosystems. Emphasis to date has been
on measurements of seasonal and annual fluxes of methane from terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems.
This research will lead to an improved understanding of changes in the atmospheric concentrations of
trace gases that can perturb the Earth's chemical composition and climate.
Tropospheric Chemical Processes. To determine the processes that control tropospheric chemical
species concentrations and distributions. Aircraft and ground-based measurements of fluxes and
meteorological mixing processes combined with satellite measurements (where available). Extensive
field measurement campaigns in the tropical Atlantic, the Amazonian rainforest, and the Alaskan
tundra. Provides quantitative large-scale data as critical input to models of the impact of changing
atmospheric chemistry on climate.
Stratospheric Processes. To develop an understanding of the chemical and physical processes
which control the composition and structure of the Earth's upper atmosphere and its susceptibility to
change (with particular emphasis on stratospheric ozone and climate). In situ and remote
measurements of chemical species (source and trace gases), atmospheric dynamics, and climatology;
laboratory measurements of important reaction kinetic, photochemical, and spectroscopic parameters;
multidimensional models of the coupling of chemistry, radiation, and dynamics together with the
analysis of satellite and field measurement data. Continued balloon and aircraft field measurements
programs including the Airborne Arctic Stratosphere Expedition; continued laboratory experimental
efforts with accelerated research on heterogeneous chemistry; modeling assessment of the global
impact of the Antarctic ozone hole. Provides for improved predictions of changes in stratospheric
ozone in response to human activity.
Upper Atmospheric Research Satellite (UARS). To obtain the first global-scale data base on
chemistry, dynamics, and energy input to the upper atmosphere and the coupling among them.
Dedicated fully-instrumented satellite system to be launched in 1991. Instrument development and
testing; ground data system procurement and installation; development of planned ground-truth and
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APPENDIX B: NASA
correlative measurements campaigns. Improved understanding and prediction of stratospheric ozone
and climate change.
Ecosystem Processes. To estimate vegetation canopy composition and structure, to infer nutrient
cycling rates, and to drive models of ecosystem productivity and biogeochemical cycling. Satellite and
experimental airborne sensors are used to measure or estimate (in visible and infrared wavelengths)
leaf area index, chlorophyll density, canopy photosynthetic potential, net primary productivity, and
forest canopy lignin and nitrogen concentrations. This information is validated through comparison
with complementary ground-based measurements and by extension to other types of ecosystems. This
canopy information then is related to nutrient cycling processes and rates and also is used as input to
ecosystem process models. This research will lead to a better understanding of the controls that
terrestrial ecosystems exert on biogeochemical cycling, of ecosystems' storages and major fluxes of
nutrients, and of the spatial and temporal variability of biogeochemical cycling processes on the
terrestrial landscape.
Ocean Productivity. To determine primary productivity of the oceans, how it is influenced by the
oceanic circulation and the atmosphere, and how it in turn influences the marine food chain, the rate of
CO₂ uptake by the oceans, and climate. Spaceborne ocean color observations, in conjunction with
appropriate in situ measurements--especially those made via NSF's Global Ocean Flux Study (GOFS),
will be used to estimate the primary productivity and the associated phytoplankton biomass.
Preparations are underway to support the GOFS North Atlantic Experiment with airborne ocean color
observations. The ultimate benefit is to assess the role of the oceans as a sink for atmospheric CO₂.
Sea-WiFS Implementation. To provide a capability for follow-on, but improved over the Coastal
Zone Color Scanner (CZCS), ocean color observations. This will be done via the initiation of a joint
venture with EOSAT regarding Sea-WiFS (compact wide field sensor) for flight on Landsat-6 in 1991.
An agreement in principle with EOSAT is near finalization.
Payload Development. To develop, test, and evaluate Earth remote sensing instruments and system
for the measurement of atmospheric constituents, energy input, and land surface characteristics.
Aircraft operations. Testbeds for future satellite instruments to measure atmospheric chemical
composition and land surface characteristics, as well as vehicles for special field projects such as:
Atmospheric processes. Global Tropospheric Experiments and Polar Ozone
Expeditions (Arctic and Antarctic).
Canopy Chemistry. High spectral resolution reflectance data from the Airborne
Visible-Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) to estimate vegetation canopy lignin,
nitrogen, and chlorophyll concentrations.
Areal Extent of Wetlands. Remotely sensed estimates, using aircraft optical and radar
sensors, of the areal extent and seasonal inundation dynamics of wetlands for use in
extrapolating point measurements of trace gas fluxes to larger scales.
Long-Term Observations
Tropospheric and Stratospheric Monitoring. To determine the rate of change in the atmospheric
concentrations of anthropogenic and naturally occurring tropospheric source gases; to develop a long-
term data base on the chemical composition of the stratosphere and the ability to detect and interpret
changes in important constituents. Measurements of important source gas concentrations at selected
locations around the globe via the Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (GAGE); and the
development of a network of stations for the Detection of Stratospheric Change through the
development, testing, and deployment of various ground-based remote-sensing instruments.
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APPENDIX B: NASA
Vegetation Process Monitoring. Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data, both
vegetation index and thermal data, are being compiled to understand global patterns of productivity,
fire, and land cover change. The vegetation index calculated using red and infrared wavelength
radiances is used to estimate an ecosystem's leaf area index or its potential photosynthetic capacity at a
point in time and its net primary productivity when integrated over the growing season. A long-term
data set of monthly averaged, global vegetation index data is analyzed to examine seasonal, annual and
interannual patterns of productivity. The results of this research will greatly improve our
understanding of terrestrial ecosystem productivity and of how productivity varies over time in
response to changes in climate and human activities. AVHRR thermal data are being used to estimate
the frequency and extent of fires related to deforestation in the tropics; this research should yield some
understanding of the role of fire in biogeochemical cycling in tropical ecosystems.
Satellite Measurements and Data Analysis Measurements and data analysis of a number of
important environmental parameters from existing satellite instrumentation including atmospheric
ozone (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and Stratospheric Aerosol and GAS experiment
(SAGE II)); nitrogen dioxide, water vapor, and stratospheric aerosols (SAGE II); and a large number
of atmospheric constituents utilizing the ATMOS flown on shuttle. Analysis of data from Shuttle
Imaging Radar (SIR-B) mission.
Data Management
CZCS Data Archival. To improve the scientific community's capability to access and work with
ocean color observations made during the lifetime (1978-86) of the Coastal Zone Color Scanner
(CZCS). Global data from the CZCS mission is being reprocessed, now that there is an improved
understanding of the degradation in sensor gain; data products are then archived and made ready for
community use. Eighteen months of data have actually been reprocessed and will shortly be
distributed by Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) on optical disks to a number of university sites.
The CZCS archival activities at GSFC in Greenbelt, MD will help lay the basis for the archival of data
from the flight of Sea-WiFS (noted below).
Information Systems. Funding for continued operation of scientific computing resources and data
archives in support of all NASA Earth Science and Application activities, including study of
biogeochemical cycles.
Ecological Systems and Dynamics
Focused ($4.3M)
Research
Earth Observing System (Eos). Development of technology to measure from integrated polar-
orbiting platforms quantities important to land and ocean ecological systems, including: Surface
temperature, radiation, albedo, surface humidity, primary productivity, leaf area, vegetation type, soil
moisture, and evapotranspiration.
Contributing ($13.8M)
Research
Landscape Dynamics. To document and understand the spatial distribution, areal extent, and
changes in pattern of major land cover types on the Earth's surface. Satellite imagery at several
differing spatial scales is being used for land cover mapping and inventory, to document vegetation
patterns on the terrestrial landscape, and to analyze change in these patterns over time. Global
vegetation index (AVHRR) and surface moisture (SMMR) data sets collected since 1981 are being
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APPENDIX B: NASA
used to study large-scale changes in vegetation patterns over time. Landsat and SPOT data are being
used for fine-scale studies of local to regional vegetation patterns. These studies will yield insights in
large-scale processes influencing vegetation patterns and will provide information on vegetation-
climate interactions. In addition, these results will be useful in a wide variety of studies which require
information on the spatial extent of land cover types and temporal variation in vegetation.
Ecosystem Structure and Composition. The basic biophysical and biochemical determinants of
reflected, emitted, and backscattered radiation from vegetation canopies are being investigated in order
to understand and interpret remotely sensed data from terrestrial ecosystems. Controlled observations
of electromagnetic radiation interactions with plants are made in the laboratory, in the field, and from
aircraft in order to understand the contributions of various ecosystem components to the radiances
received by a satellite. Models are used to simulate these interactions and to predict the responses of
vegetation under known conditions. Results will improve our ability to utilize remotely sensed
information from terrestrial ecosystems precisely and quantitatively.
Ecosystem Modeling. Realistic, mechanistic, simulation models of ecosystem processes (including
production, decomposition, nutrient cycling, evapotranspiration, and succession) which can be driven
with remotely sensed inputs are being developed to yield insight into the function of terrestrial
ecosystems and to predict their response to changes in the environment. Existing ecosystem process
models are being modified to accept primarily remotely sensed inputs, and new models are being
developed which exploit remotely sensed information or data which is potentially sensible remotely.
An increasing emphasis is on the development of nested, hierachical models and models which can be
linked to provide for feedbacks from one model to another and which can simulate interactions
between ecosystem components and between ecosystems and climate or the hydrological cycle. These
models should greatly improve our understanding of the interactions among ecosystems, the
atmosphere, and the hydrosphere. They will also permit us to generate predictions about ecosystem
response to change and ecosystem controls through feedbacks on climate and the hydrologic cycle.
Payload development. To develop, test, and evaluate Earth-viewing remote sensing instruments
and systems to obtain data for land remote sensing research, including terrestrial ecosystems.
Aircraft Operations :
Landscape Pattern. Use of both active and passive airborne sensors covering all
useful portions of the electromagnetic spectrum for measuring the spatial distribution
and areal extent of terrestrial ecosystems on local to regional scales.
Vegetation Structure. Radar, laser, and bidirectional passive optical observations of
ecosystems to measure or infer such structural properties as canopy height, branch and
leaf orientation or distribution, stand density, leaf area index, and, in some cases,
canopy species composition.
Energy Balance of Vegetated Surfaces. Airborne thermal sensors (TIMS) for
measuring surface temperature to use in calculations of evapotranspiration; bidirectional
reflectance measurements (using ASAS) to more accurately estimate the albedo of
vegetated surfaces.
Long-Term Observations
Global Vegetation Patterns. To understand global vegetation patterns and their change over time.
Monthly averaged, global Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) vegetation index
data and Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) polarization difference data (related
to surface moisture) for the period 1981-present are being processed and compiled. These data will
constitute a long-term, coarse-scale data base which can be analyzed for change over time and change
in response to specific environmental perturbations.
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Regional Observations. Fine spatial scale Landsat Multispectral Scanner System (MSS) and
Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery and SPOT imagery for selected, climatically sensitive regions of the
globe have been preserved and archived. These data are being housed at a NASA facility and all non-
commercial data can be made available to interested scientists. Studies of fine-scale change in land
cover patterns for selected regions of the Earth's surface are being conducted and these changes are
being related to changes in climate and human activities in the areas involved. These data will
constitute a long-term, fine-scale data base which can be analyzed for change over time and change in
response to specific environmental perturbations.
Data Management
Global Vegetation Index. Monthly averaged, global AVHRR vegetation index data and SMMR
polarization difference data for the periods 1981-present and 1979-1987 respectively are being
preserved and archived. These data bases will be updated and made available to the scientific
community through the Pilot Land Data System (PLDS) in future years. These data will constitute a
long-term, coarse-scale data base which can be analyzed for change over time and change in response
to specific environmental perturbations.
Landsat Browse Facility. NASA-owned, historic Landsat MSS and TM data have been archived
and are being made available through the NASA Landsat Browse Facility. Information about
commercial Landsat data (that data acquired after the Land Remote Sensing Commercialization Act was
enacted) can be made available through this facility, but the data itself must be ordered through Eosat.
An electronic data base of all holdings has been implemented. These data will constitute a long-term,
fine-scale data base for selected regions of the Earth which can be analyzed for change over time and
change in response to specific environmental perturbations.
Earth System History
Contributing ($4.5M)
Research
Evolution of Continents. The objective of this research is to investigate the history and evolution of
the continents from early formation and deformation through accretionary, depositional, tectonic, and
deformational processes that are currently active. The approach is based on a combination of
geological field and laboratory observations and remote sensing techniques. This research improves
our understanding of solid Earth processes from early crustal formation through to present activity.
Quaternary Processes. This research is directed toward understanding of geomorphic, volcanic,
and paleoclimatological processes and their role in the evolution of land surfaces over the past million
years. A combination of field, laboratory, and remote-sensing observations of geologic formations,
land surface processes, and rates of processes is employed. Studies of land surfaces and composition
contribute to understanding tectonic processes, soil formation and erosion, weathering and
modification of geological surfaces, and the development of drainage networks. Studies of volcanism
and global volcanic activity contribute to assessment of potential natural hazards, to global heat flux
analyses, and to the understanding of atmospheric chemistry changes attributable to volcanic volatiles.
Studies of past climatic change prior to human influence provide a yardstick of natural variation and
rates of change, contributing to the assessment of human present and future impact and the anticipation
of future rates of change.
Technique Development. A combination of ground-based, and air and space-borne passive and
active remotely sensed data acquired at different regions of the electromagnetic spectrum are used to
develop a wide range of techniques to study geological materials, features and phenomena. These
techniques are particularly valuable for studying regional features and active phenomena in remote
areas of the globe.
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APPENDIX B: NASA
Aircraft Operation:
Structure, and Composition. Use of multi-sensor (UV, visible, near and shortwave
infrared, thermal infrared, and microwave) airborne observations for structural,
lithologic, and compositional mapping of the Earth's surface to provide information on
the geologic processes responsible for the evolution of the continents.
Surface Geomorphology. Use of both active and passive airborne sensors covering
all useful portions of the electromagnetic spectrum for measuring surface roughness
and geomorphic patterns which can be used to infer the recent geologic, volcanic, and
climatic processes that shaped them. Use of laser altimeter for detailed profiling of
geographical features.
Human Interactions
Contributing ($0.6M)
Research
Acid Deposition Effects. To develop a better understanding of the affects of acidic deposition and
air pollution on ecosystems. Forest decline associated with air pollution and acid deposition is being
studied using remotely sensed observations of the forest's state and change over time. Landsat and
experimental airborne sensors are being used to acquire data on forest health, composition, structure,
and canopy biochemical composition as a means of gathering information about the response of the
forest and of inferring the possible proximal cause(s) of the decline response. These results should
yield better understanding of the utility of remotely sensed data for studying stressed vegetation and of
the effects of anthropogenic air pollution on forested ecosystems.
Tropical Deforestation. To assess the areal extent and rate of deforestation in the tropics and to
analyze its effect on regional ecological processes and climate. AVHRR data are being used to monitor
large-scale deforestation and to observe the frequency, extent, and role of fires in tropical forest areas.
Data from several different years are being analyzed to estimate the rate of deforestation in the southern
Amazon Basin. This information is valuable for gaining insight into the severity of human impact on
tropical forests and for assessing the potential loss of biological diversity in these regions. It will also
provide information on changes in the surface energy budget for the region which can be used to
assess feedbacks to the regional climate.
Desertification. This research is intended to investigate the coupled vegetation-atmosphere response
to stressful conditions resulting either from abnormal atmospheric conditions or land use pressure
resulting from socio-economic and demographic conditions in semi-arid ecosystems. Retrospective
analysis of historic satellite data and field, aircraft, and satellite studies of surface energy balance are
being conducted. This research contributes to the global change initiative.
Solid Earth Processes
Focused ($2.2M)
Research
Earth Observing System (Eos). Development of technology to study from polar-orbiting platforms
solid Earth processes such as crustal deformation, surface topography, and surface composition.
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Contributing ($47.3M)
Research
Tectonic Plate Movement and Deformation Processes. The goal is to contribute to the
understanding of the solid Earth, in particular the processes that result in movement and deformation of
the tectonic plates. The approach is to make precise measurements of site and motion motions using
results derived from satellite laser ranging (SLR), very long baseline interferometry (VLBI), the global
positioning system (GPS), and, in the future, the Geodynamics Laser Ranging System (GLRS).
These data are being collected and processed on a continuing basis. The pay-off will be a better
understanding of the processes involved in tectonic movement and deformation and how these
processes relate to earthquakes.
Earth's Rotational Dynamics Processes. The goal is to develop models of polar motion, Earth
rotation, and the dynamics of the Earth's interior. The approach is to evaluate data signatures extracted
from satellite laser ranging (SLR), lunar laser ranging (LLR), very long baseline interferometry
(VLBI), and the global positioning system (GPS). These investigations are in progress. The result
will be a better understanding of the rotational dynamics of the Earth and their relation to changes in
atmospheric angular momentum, earthquakes and other forms of mass redistribution.
Volcanology. The goal is to document the distribution of current volcanic activity and recent
volcanic deposits and study volcanic processes in order to develop a better understanding of
contemporary volcanism-related earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. The approach uses a combination
of satellite and aircraft observations including the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS),
AVIRIS, SAR, TIMS, LANDSAT, and SPOT with field and laboratory measurements to monitor
certain kinds of volcanic activity and to study the history of flow and explosive volcanism. Through a
better understanding of the patterns of volcanic activity it will be possible to evaluate the effects of
volcanic activity on atmospheric composition, and through an analysis of volcanic hazard potential it
should be possible to recommend means of mitigating volcanic hazard.
Geopotential Field. The goal is to measure high resolution, extremely accurate, truly global gravity
and magnetic fields to meet the requirements of geodesy, geodynamics oceanography, orbit
determination and related disciplines. The approach is to support the acquisition, processing and
analysis of ground-based, airborne, and space-based data. High priority is given to the initiation of the
ESA/NASA gradiometer mission and the development of the Superconducting Gravity Gradiometer.
The pay-off will be a significant contribution towards the understanding of Earth structure and
dynamics.
Aircraft Operations:
Plate Tectonics and Continental Evolution. Multi-sensor aircraft observations of
surface structure and lithology and of the mineral composition of exposed rocks to infer
the accretionary, depositional, tectonic, and deformational processes which shaped
today's continents.
Surface Mineral Composition. High spectral resolution reflectance data from the
Airborne Visible-Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) to uniquely identify surface
minerals and thereby infer the processes that emplaced them.
Laser Altimetry. Precise measurement using an airborne laser profiler to eludidate
structural relationships and document roughness parameters in order to characterize
surface processes.
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APPENDIX B: NASA
Long-Term Observations
Laser Ranging. The goal is making precise laser ranging measurements to (and from) satellites and
the Moon for studies of the solid Earth. The approach is to support the collection and reduction of
laser ranging measurements with high precision for geophysics applications. Laser ranging is an
ongoing effort, with continued improvement in performance of the systems. The pay-off is in data
that are precise enough for measurements of tectonic plate motion and deformation, and for studies of
the rotational dynamics of the Earth.
Very-Long-Baseline Interferometry (VLBI). The goal is to use VLBI to provide an independent
source of precise measurements of inter-site distances, and Earth orientation/rotation parameters. The
collection and reduction of VLBI data has continued and is providing important geodetic results in the
study of tectonic plate motion, plate boundary deformation and Earth rotation.
Global Positioning System (GPS). The goal is to use GPS signals to measure crustal movements
and deformation in local areas of high earthquake activity, providing more dense coverage at lower
cost. The approach is to use GPS signals to make precise measurements of relative positions of
receivers situated near ground markers in areas of tectonic activity. Receivers capable of providing
precise results have been developed and tested, and an expanding measurement program is in
progress. The result will be a better understanding of crustal deformation along active plate boundaries
and elsewhere.
Satellite Gravity Measurements. The goal is to obtain accurate gravity field information for solid
Earth studies. The approach is to use laser ranging, including drag-free satellites in low orbit, satellite
altimetry and gradiometry. An active existing program in gravity field measurements will be greatly
enhanced by the use of precise spaceborne gradiometers. The results will be gravity field data accurate
enough for geophysics studies.
Magnetometer Field Measurements. Use of satellite magnetometers to measure the intensity and
direction of Earth's magnetic field to yield insight into core fluid dynamics, core-mantle boundary
interactions, and deep crustal structure and composition. Both low orbit (for crustal studies) and high
orbit, long-term monitoring (for secular variation) are required.
Data Management
Crustal Dynamics Data Information System. Management of observational and reduced geodetic
data for solid Earth studies.
Pilot Land Data System (PLDS). PLDS will play a significant role in future geological research and
long-term activities related to the global change initiative. It currently offers a library of a wide range of
mineral spectra and other surface-based, airborne and space-based geologic observations.
Solar Influences
Focused ($0.7M)
Research
Earth Observing System (Eos). Development of technology to measure from integrated polar-
orbiting platforms to measure solar output, both of the total energy output and for specific wavelength
regions (particularly ultraviolet).
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APPENDIX B: NASA
Contributing ($7.7M)
Research
Upper Atmospheric Research Satellite (UARS). To determine the variability of solar UV input in
the wavelength range 115 - 430 nm. Two independent ultraviolet spectrometers flown aboard the
UARS satellite. Construction and testing of satellite instruments and development of data analysis
software. Improved understanding of solar variability as a driver in changing atmospheric
composition and climate.
Payload and Instrument Development. Development, testing and operation on Shuttle missions
(Atmospheric Laboratory for Applications and Science[ATLAS]) of an active cavity radiometer to
measure total solar output (solar constant).
Solar Irradiance Monitoring Program (SIMP). The suite of Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance
Monitor (ACRIM) instruments flown aboard NASA Satellites since 1980 (SMM, space shuttle), and
those to be flown in the future (UARS, Eos) are intended to provide a long-term (~22 year solar
magnetic cycle) record of the variations in total solar output. These data will explore variations whose
climatological significance requires long time scale observations.
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National Science Foundation (NSF)
Climate and Hydrologic Systems
Focused ($13.2M)
Research
Tropical Ocean/Global Atmosphere (TOGA). To describe the tropical oceans and global atmosphere,
and the processes which connect them, as a time-dependent system in order to determine the extent to
which this system is predictable on time scales of months to years. Studies include observations, data
interpretations and simulations of the seasonal and interannual variability of the tropical ocean-global
atmosphere system. TOGA's goal is the development and evaluation of predictive models of this
system. This is an interagency and international program involving NOAA, NSF and NASA as well
as 13 other nations. This program is expected to lead to better predictions of oceanic forcing, and its
response and feedback to long-term changes in the atmosphere.
World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE). To understand the general circulation of the global
ocean well enough to model its present state and predict its evolution in relation to long-term changes
in the atmosphere and to provide the background for the long-term measurement of large-scale
circulation in the ocean. This is a multi-agency program involving NSF, NOAA and NASA. A
WOCE Hydrographic Office is being set up, and instrument development and testing is underway.
This will set the stage for conducting the WOCE Hydrographic Program, a coordinated international
field program for global and southern ocean studies. The long-term benefits expected from this
program are improved models of atmospheric-oceanic coupling that can be used for climate simulation
and prediction.
Arctic Systems Science (ARCSS). To understand the natural interactions that link the arctic
environment to global climate, geologic, and oceanic processes, with emphasis on biosphere- ocean-
atmospheric processes and interactions in arctic regions. Activities include research on arctic
oceanographic, biological, terrestrial and atmospheric processes and their relationships to global
processes and climate change. This program will provide improved information and predictive
modeling capabilities of physical and biological conditions and changes in the environmentally
sensitive north polar regions of the planet.
Contributing ($42.2M)
Research
Environmental Research. To provide support of fundamental research in hydrology, climate
dynamics, meteorology, physical oceanography and glaciology that promotes and contributes to
advances in the scientific knowledge and understanding of the Earth's physical environment.
Activities include field, laboratory and theoretical studies of atmospheric, oceanographic, and
cryospheric processes in polar, temperate and equatorial regions of the globe. This research
investment contributes significantly to the scientific understanding of the Earth's atmosphere,
hydrosphere and cryosphere and their interactions with each other. This research support also
contributes to the education and training of future environmental scientists who will face the
demanding challenges of conducting Earth system research.
Data Management
Environmental Data Bases. To provide special data bases for use by the scientific community in
climate research and modeling activities. Research on climate and hydrologic systems is heavily
dependent upon the availability of observational data; for example, studies of El Niño and associated
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global relationships. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) maintains a large
organized archive of computer-accessible research observational data and analysis, that is used by
scientists for national and international atmospheric and ocean research projects. This archive includes:
National Meteorological Center daily analysis from 1946, data sets and monthly statistics of world ship
observations (1854-1979), and satellite sounder data from 1968-1985. In addition, the Foundation
supports data and sample repositories, such as the Antarctic Marine Core Repository.
Facilities
Climate Research Facilities. To provide facility support for basic climatological and hydrological
research studies. The collection of field observation data requires various field station, aircraft and
ship support, and the requisite logistical support necessary to conduct glaciology and physical climate
studies in the Antarctic region. These facilities are provided annually for competitively approved
projects and permit comprehensive investigations of element of the hydrologic and climatic systems.
Biogeochemical Dynamics
Focused ($13.5M)
Research
Global Tropospheric Chemistry Program (GTCP). To measure and model concentrations and
distributions of gases and aerosols in the lower atmosphere; the chemical reactions among atmospheric
species; sources and sinks of important trace gases and aerosols; and exchange of gases and aerosols
between the troposphere and the biosphere, the Earth's surface, and the stratosphere. Activities
include field, laboratory and modeling studies designed to better understand tropospheric oxidant
chemistry; development of new instruments for measuring trace atmospheric constituents. Part of a
multi-agency effort with NASA (Tropospheric and Stratospheric Chemistry) and NOAA (RITS and
Acid and Oxidant Processes). Near and long-term benefits will be an improvement in understanding
the processes controlling atmospheric composition and the ability to predict atmospheric chemistry
changes and the resulting influences on the climate system.
Global Ocean Flux Studies (GOFS). To identify and quantify the role of the ocean basins and
coastal oceans in the global biogeochemical flux of the most important of the biologically active
elements (C, N, O, P, and S). Activities include measuring the rates and processes of exchange
between the ocean and atmosphere and ocean and land/ocean margins. A long time series of ocean
data stations to characterize global change of ocean fluxes is being initiated in conjunction with NASA
ocean color satellite sensor data, the first two being in the Pacific and Atlantic central gyres. Process-
based ocean basin studies are being developed on an international level. The first of these is in the
North Atlantic, in cooperation with NOAA, NASA, ONR, four European nations, and Canada.
GOFS will develop a predictive ability to understand the effects of global-scale perturbations on the
oceans' role in the flux of these elements, and conversely, the role these oceanic processes play in
global change issues
National Ozone Expedition (NOZE). To improve the understanding of stratospheric ozone
chemistry, with particular emphasis on stratospheric depletion of ozone over the Antarctic, and the
effects of increased ultraviolet radiation on biota in the high southern latitudes. An interagency
program with NOAA and NASA aimed at obtaining observational and theoretical information on
Antarctic Ozone depletion and the resultant changes in UV radiation exposure to biota. This program
will lead to improved predicative capabilities for stratospheric chemistry and its biological significance
in the high latitudes.
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APPENDIX B: NSF
Facilities
Accelerator Mass Spectrometry Facility. To provide the analytical capability to measure carbon-14 in
small (i.e., 250 ml) seawater samples in support of GOFS objectives.
Contributing ($18.0M)
Research
Environmental Research. To provide support of fundamental research in atmospheric chemistry,
marine chemistry, and terrestrial and oceanographic biology that promotes and contributes to advances
in the scientific knowledge and understanding of biogeochemical processes. Activities include field,
laboratory and theoretical studies of biogeochemical processes in polar, temperate and equatorial
regions of the globe. This research investment contributes significantly to the scientific understanding
of basic environmental processes and the interactions that take place between the biosphere,
hydrosphere, and atmosphere. This research support also contributes to the education and training of
future environmental scientists who will face the demanding challenges of conducting Earth system
research.
Facilities
Facility support for basic biogeochemistry research studies. The collection of field observation data
requires various field station, aircraft and ship support, and the requisite logistical support necessary to
operate in the Antarctic region. These facilities are provided annually for competitively approved
projects and permit comprehensive investigations of the biogeochemistry of the Earth's atmosphere
and oceans.
Ecological Systems and Dynamics
Focused ($1.9M)
Research
Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics (GLOBEC). To understand the response of marine plant and
animal populations to environmentally driven changes in ocean circulation and chemistry induced by
"greenhouse" warming and pollutants. Research will focus on (1) the role of animal populations in
controlling and transforming global primary production (relating to GOFS), (2) the causes of
interannual and decadal fluctuation of stocks of animal populations, including determination of the
early life history events in affecting recruitment to adult populations including commercial fisheries, (3)
the biological and economic implications of large-scale air/sea interactions (e.g. El Niño, relating to
TOGA) involving marine populations, (4) the reasons for accelerating incidents of toxic algal blooms
(red tides) and (5) the potential threat of global change to ocean biota diversity, the gene pool and its
biotechnology implications. Essential to these goals will be development of advanced sampling
technologies for real time analysis of population status, the establishment of long-term ocean ecological
observation sites and the development of new ecosystem theoretical and numerical models. This
program is cooperative with objectives of NOAA (NMFS, OAR, Sea Grant), NASA and the Office of
Naval Research (ONR) in particular.
Land Margin Ecosystem Research (LMER). To stimulate the basic interdisciplinary research
necessary to determine how the many types of land sea interfaces (e.g. estuaries, salt marshes) act as
integrated ecosystems rather than merely boundaries. Activities include the identification and
quantification of the flux of materials, and their transformations, through these margin systems and
how this contributes to the productivity of coastal oceans and the support the nursery grounds of
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APPENDIX B: NSF
important marine populations. This is expected to allow improved prediction of the consequences of
global sea level rise on these rich ecosystems upon which human populations depend.
Contributing ($12.9M)
Basic Research Support.
Global Terrestrial Ecosystem Dynamics. To determine how the terrestrial biota will respond to
changes in the climate system and how biotic responses feed back to the climate system. Activities
include studies of how the biosphere and atmosphere interact through biotic influence on composition
and concentration of trace atmospheric constituents; and research on ecological responses to changes
in environmental conditions. This will permit the improvement of ecosystem models for predicting
ecological changes on long and short-term time scales, and how these changes might influence the
regional or global environment.
Environmental Research. To provide support of fundamental research in ecology, ecosystems
dynamics, population biology, systematic biology, biological oceanography, and polar biology that
promotes and contributes to advances in the scientific knowledge and understanding of ecology and
ecological processes. Activities include field, laboratory, and theoretical studies of terrestrial and
marine biology and ecology in polar, temperate, and equatorial regions of the globe. This research
investment contributes significantly to the scientific understanding of the Earth's biosphere and its
interactions with other elements of the environment. This research support also contributes to the
education and training of future environmental scientists who will face the demanding challenges of
conducting Earth system research.
Facilities
Long-Term Ecological Research Sites (LTER). To provide research stations and the scientific
infrastructure at selected natural and representative ecosystems for the conduct of long-term basic
research on ecological phenomena. The current LTER network consists of 15 sites in the U.S.
Planning for the development of two sites in the Antarctic is underway for the McMurdo and Palmer
areas. The Antarctic sites are to be established in regions that are believed to be vulnerable to
pronounced climatic and environmental change. Components of these LTER's investigate the physical
and climate environment and trophic structure patterns and control. The benefits resulting from these
facilities include a long-term data base for the different ecosystems and the ability to conduct
comprehensive and ongoing ecological studies.
Earth System History
Focused ($2.0M)
Research
Arctic Systems Science (ARCSS). To understand the natural interactions that link the arctic
environment to the global climate, geologic, and oceanic processes, with emphasis on arctic
paleoenvironments. The second Greenland Ice Sheet Project (GISP II) is underway which will
provide more than 125,000 years of atmospheric climate history. This research activity will provide
important information for defining and understanding how climate has varied in the past and
determining how well the historical record can be explained and used for understanding future changes
in the climate system.
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APPENDIX B: NSF
Contributing ($22.0M)
Research
Paleoenvironmental Research. To provide support of fundamental research in the Earth sciences,
biology, paleontology and glaciology that promotes and contributes to advances in the scientific
knowledge and understanding of the Earth's past environment. Activities include field, laboratory and
theoretical studies of atmospheric, oceanographic, lithospheric and biospheric records in polar ice
sheets and land and oceanic deposits. Basic geologic studies are supported to improve our
understanding of the processes that control the change of the natural environment through space and
time. The geologic record is the data base that stores the past history of environmental change.
Specific studies using stratigraphy, sedimentology, paleontology, geomorphology, dendrochronology,
and Quaternary geology are essential to understand the impact of changing environments on the
world's climate and reasons for major extinctions of species. Data from previous environmental
systems are the only mechanism for testing the efficacy of computer models for predicting future
change. This research support also contributes to the education and training of future environmental
scientists who will face the demanding challenges of conducting Earth system research.
Ocean Drilling Program. The Ocean Drilling Program is an international effort that obtains cores of
the Earth's crust beneath the oceans in order to reveal the composition, structure, and history of the
submerged portion of the Earth's surface. The research focus is on potential drilling regions by means
of geophysical field studies, development of downhole instrumentation and techniques, and
geophysical and geochemical experiments. Operations are being conducted in the Western Pacific
Ocean near the Sea of Japan, and will move into the Central Pacific later in the year. The program has
sampled many sites, is nearing completion of a global circumnavigation, and future activities will be
dominated by scientific thematic questions.
Facilities
Research Facilities. To provide for support of the Ocean Drilling Program through operation of the
JOIDES RESOLUTION drilling ship to carry out competitively approved sampling projects. Logistic
support is provided for approved projects to scientists conducting research in the Antarctic.
Accelerator Mass Spectrometry Facility. To provide the analytical capability to measure carbon-14 in
small samples in support of geochronological studies in conjunction with: polar ice, lake sediments,
tree rings, and solar terrestrial research.
Human Interactions
Contributing ($1.0M)
Research
Social Sciences Research. To better understand the human dimensions of global environmental and
climate change. Studies of teleconnections; atmospheric resources for development; climate variability
and economic competitiveness and resource management; and the use of climate-related information
will continue. Research on human influences on the environment and public and private sector
responses to global change, including risk communication and management, will also be supported.
Analysis of these factors will help focus the questions considered in climate modeling and improve the
usefulness of scientific findings in other areas.
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APPENDIX B: NSF
Solid Earth Processes
Focused ($6.2M)
Research
Landmass Movement. To conduct high precision studies to directly monitor and measure the vertical
and horizontal movements of landmasses. This activity will provide basic data on active changes for
processes that control erosion through continental hydrologic processes, coastal flooding through sea
level changes, and earthquakes that result through crustal strain and subsequent deformation. A major
activity is to provide Global Positioning System receivers to the scientific community to make use of
the DOD NAVSTAR satellite constellation.
Global Seismic Research. To carry out high precision studies using a globally distributed wide-band
digital network to measure seismic energy. This activity will provide basic data on active processes that
produce global change on the short-term (such as volcanic explosions) and on the long-term (such as
vertical and horizontal movement of landmasses). It also has the potential for increasing the
understanding of the source and variability of the electromagnetic dynamo believed to be controlled by
outer core and/or core-mantle processes. Changes in the Earth's magnetic field, especially reversals,
can have major but as yet unknown effects on humans and other biological forms. A major activity is
the purchase, distribution, and operation of the instruments for the Global Seismic Network.
Active Tectonics. To carry out field experiments in active tectonics. This activity will provide basic
data on geologically common phenomena that occur on the scale of years to decades to centuries. A
major activity is to use the instrumental arrays previously described as well as standard field
techniques.
Ridge Inter-Disciplinary Global Experiment (RIDGE). To understand the physical, chemical, and
biological causes and consequences of the energy transfer within the global mid-ocean ridge system
through time. Research will quantify the flow of mantle material, the generation of melt, and the
emplacement of molten rock along mid-ocean ridges; the transformation of molten magma into oceanic
crust; the segmentation and episodic accretion of oceanic crust; the physical and chemical interaction
between circulating seawater and oceanic crust; the biological interactions within ridge-related
hydrothermal systems; and the temporal/spatial variations of mid-ocean ridge venting and its influence
on the oceanic environment.
Contributing ($9.7M)
Research
Geology Research. To provide basic knowledge to understand the structure, composition and
formation of the continents. Research includes study of processes that shape the surface of the
continents and determine the interactions between the solid Earth, biosphere, atmosphere and oceans.
Activities include major geophysical and drilling programs managed by the Continental Lithosphere
Program and support of research in Arctic tectonics. To increase understanding of the formation,
structure, and history of the 70 percent of the Earth's surface covered by oceans. Research to test and
further the predictive capabilities of the plate tectonic paradigm and to understand the processes
responsible for the formation and morphology of the ocean crust. This research support also
contributes to the education and training of future environmental scientists who will face the
demanding challenges of conducting Earth system research.
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APPENDIX B: NSF
Solar Influences
Focused ($2.4M)
Research
Coupled Energetics and Dynamics of Atmospheric Regions (CEDAR). To understand the
energetics, dynamics and latitudinal and vertical coupling between the upper and middle atmosphere.
Activities include field campaigns utilizing optical and radar equipment to generate an observational
data base in coordination with theoretical studies for the development and evaluation of global models
of the upper atmosphere. This program is expected to produce improved models of the coupling of
solar energy into the upper atmosphere and how this in turn influences the global climate system.
National Ozone Expedition (NOZE). To improve the understanding of stratospheric ozone
chemistry, with particular emphasis on stratospheric depletion of ozone over the Antarctic, and its
effect on the fluxes of ultraviolet radiation in the high southern latitudes. An interagency program with
NOAA and NASA aimed at obtaining observational and theoretical information on Antarctic Ozone
depletion and the resultant changes in UV radiation. This program will lead to improved predicative
capabilities for stratospheric chemistry and its biological significance in the high latitudes.
Data Management
Cedar Data Base. A data management base consisting of upper atmosphere observations obtained
with incoherent scatter radars and optical instruments is maintained at NCAR. These data include
CEDAR field campaign collections, and data collected at four incoherent scatter radar facilities support
by NSF and several European facilities.
Contributing ($6.6M)
Research
Solar Terrestrial Research. To provide support of fundamental research in aeronomy, solar
terrestrial physics, and magnetospheric physics that promotes and contributes to advances in the
scientific knowledge and understanding of the Earth's upper atmosphere and the near space
environment. Activities include field, laboratory and theoretical studies of upper atmosphere and solar
processes that influences the Earth's environment. This research investment contributes significantly
to the scientific understanding of the solar influence on atmospheric dynamics and composition. This
research support also contributes to the education and training of future environmental scientists who
will face the demanding challenges of conducting Earth system research.
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APPENDIX B: USDA
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Climate and Hydrologic Systems
Focused ($1.5M)
Research
Water Yields, Erosion and Sedimentation. The goal is to relate potential changes in physical and
chemical climate properties to the water yield by studying forest to non-forest transitional areas and
associated small changes in temperature with or without precipitation and the influence of vegetation.
Contributing ($8.1M)
Research
Watershed. The objective is to refine the water budget and waterflux between the atmosphere-
pedosphere-geosphere for selected agricultural ecosystems, especially those where minimum or no-till
tillage systems are being employed.
Snow Surveys. The goal of the SNOTEL snow courses and remote telemetry sites is to monitor
snow pack and its water content to assist in forecasting water, usually in the Western U.S. The data
transmission technology is capable of handling additional site parameters.
Biogeochemical Dynamics
Focused ($2.1M)
Research
Carbon, Water, and Nutrient Cycling. The goal is to better understand the geochemical processes
mediated by bacteria and fungi and their adaptability to changing environmental conditions. A major
concern is that acclimation will occur within broad limits, but once thresholds are exceeded, an
ecosystem and its capabilities in cycling biogeochemical elements may change drastically.
Contributing ($4.7M)
Research
Cycling and Steady State Levels of Carbon, Nitrogen, Phosphorus, and Sulfur. The goal is to
model the biogeochemical process of major nutrient cycles in terms of influence by variables of
temperature, precipitation, soil texture, soil management practices, and vegetation.
Assimilation of CO₂. The goal is to understand the growth and water use by crops at CO2 levels
expected in the future. Growth and water use efficiency are determined as a function of CO₂ and
temperature for several field crops and some trees.
Acid Deposition. The goal is to understand the basic process of biogeochemical cycling and the
buffering capacity of soil, lake, stream and forested watersheds as affected by atmospheric deposition.
This knowledge will be used to predict ecosystem resiliency to acid deposition.
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APPENDIX B: USDA
CO₂ Effects. The goal is to determine whether increasing CO₂ in the atmosphere partially explains
the invasions of grassland C₄ species by woody C₃ species.
Ecological Systems and Dynamics
Focused ($14.7M)
Research
Species Life Histories and Distribution, and Community Composition. The goal is to understand
how important biological population processes such as seed production, natural seedling establishment
and tree death are influenced by atmospheric conditions. Alteration of one or more of the key
population processes would lead to changes in community composition and eventually to changes in
distribution of individual species. This research supports development of future timber supply
prediction models.
Effects of Ozone. The goal is to establish critical levels of exposure and sensitivity of non-dominant
forest species, and to understand the mechanism of ozone injure. Moderate to high levels of ozone
have caused selective death of forest tree species and thus significant changes on forested ecosystems.
These levels of ozone are widely distributed across the country. The critical level of ozone, alone or
combined with other pollutants, can lead to physiological and anatomical changes resulting from either
long-term low level or short term high level exposures.
Forest Fire Sensitivity and Occurrences. The objective is to better relate forest fire intensity and
damage to vegetation amount and structure, moisture content of fuels and weather conditions as well as
forest composition and frequency and severity of drought.
Aquatic Ecosystems and Fisheries. The goal is to determine physical and chemical response
characteristics of lakes and streams that may vary with projected climate changes.
Wildlife and Domestic Species of Animals. The objective is to examine changes in wildlife
populations as integral parts of landscapes that could occur due to shifts in seasonal range carrying
capacity resulting from projected climate changes.
Microbes, Plant Pathogens, and Insects. The goal is to determine how differential environmental
stresses on insect and pathogen populations alter the frequency and sensitivity of insect and disease
outbreaks.
Effects of UV-B. The goal is to examine growth at elevated levels of UV-B radiation and determine
mechanisms by which damage is inflicted.
Assessment of Biological Responses to Increased UV-B. The goal is to study biological responses
and mechanisms of responses at physiological, biochemical, cellular and molecular levels of
agricultural and forest plant systems.
Long-Term Observations
Long-Term Ecosystem Modeling. The objective is to establish long-term trends in forest health and
productivity and establish a baseline state of forest health. Large, long-term data bases have been
established from monitoring on experimental forests and rangelands. In addition, forest inventory has
established long-term timber supply trends. Forest pest surveys document major outbreaks of pests.
A long-term program is needed which assures that monitoring addresses: (1) representative ecological
units, (2) accumulated data can be compared globally, (3) appropriate parameters are measured
simultaneously and (4) sampling continues well beyond the life span of the dominant organism.
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APPENDIX B: USDA
Contributing ($19.6M)
Research
Forest Fire and Atmospheric Sciences. The goal is to broaden the basic knowledge of forest
atmosphere interactions with research on basic processes of fire behavior, fire effects, fire danger, fire
weather and effects of air pollutants from burning.
Forest Insect and Disease. The goal is to understand the basic biological process of insect and
disease outbreaks and associated host-predator relations.
Wildlife and Fisheries. The goal is to understand habitat requirements of different species and how
different species may compete for habitat as global changes take place.
Monitoring. The goal is to utilize preferred plant species and grazing lands and growth stress
response of trees to indicate how global change stresses may be addressed.
Spatial Patterns of Kinds of Soils. The objective is to locate and inventory areas where soil
properties and conditions of formation and development have been similar. Activities include
identification, classification and mapping of soil patterns and collection, analysis and evaluation of
soils in survey areas. Detailed soil maps at a scale of about 1:20,000 with generalized soil maps at a
scale of 1:250,000 for the U.S. are in different stages of preparation.
Agricultural Chemicals Research. The goal is to trace pesticides and other agricultural chemicals
through agro-ecosystems and forest and range ecosystems, modeling their transformations and effects,
and assessing ecosystem-level risk associated with them as global changes take place. Research will
include practices that produce optimum pest control or plant response from minimal quantities of
applied chemicals for specified environmental conditions.
Data Management
Soils Data Bases. The objective is development and maintenance of computerized data bases on the
kinds of soils and their mapping unit distributions by counties. Field descriptions of soils and
laboratory data are being reorganized to facilitate their use by other organizations. Some digital maps
and text material are also being prepared. Soil pedon data for selected soils in the tropics are part of a
World Soil Database being developed. They provide a consistent set of physical and chemical data of
important soils in tropics and subtropics.
Earth System History
Contributing ($0.7M)
Research
Natural Variability of Soil Cover. A major goal of soil survey research is to demonstrate the spatial
variability and distribution of soils and their properties. Scales vary from county level to state and
national generalizations. Qualitative models of soil formation and landscape evolution form the basis
for mapping the soil resources and there is great potential to develop quantitative models to assist in the
understanding of biogeochemical cycles and patterns and behavior and extend to ecosystems in the
past.
Data Management
Geographic Information Systems. The objective is to develop and maintain activities capable of
linking geographic soil patterns with climatic, geomorphic and other data layers (land use, topography,
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APPENDIX B: USDA
etc.) to better understanding scales and patterns of variability. Research is being identified to
determine scalar relationships that explain the global patterns of soil cover.
Human Interactions
Contributing ($25.2M)
Research
Predicting Effects of Weather and Air Quality. The goal is to conduct research contributing to new
technology capable of accurately predicting the effects at the meso or micro geographic scale of
weather and air quality for agricultural productivity.
Optimizing Water Use by Plants. The goal is to conduct research contributing to new technology
for optimizing limited irrigation water or use of rainfall to stabilize productivity of agro-ecosystems and
rangeland ecosystems.
Groundwater Research. The goal is to conduct research on management of agricultural chemicals,
natural fertilizers and soil movement of nutrients and chemicals to minimize groundwater
contamination and atmospheric losses through new technology to improve irrigation scheduling and
minimizing leaching.
Long-Term Observations
Natural Resources Inventory. Periodic assessment of the condition and changes of privately owned
land resources, including range conditions, soil erosion, and kinds of land use in the U.S. are obtained
in more than 300,000 sample units. Information is used in Resource Conservation Act assessments on
5- and 10-year intervals.
Resource Planning Assessment. Renewable Resources Planning Act requires USDA (FS) to
conduct periodic assessments of condition and treads of publicly administered lands in the U.S.;
including data on land cover and productivity of forests. The information is used in nation-wide
renewable resources assessment on 5- and 10-year intervals.
Solid Earth Processes
Contributing ($91.1M)
Research
Small Watershed Processes. The goal is to conduct research that supports models of hydrology in
landscapes. This provides an understanding of how land surface changes are reflected in natural soil
variability. Geomorphic surfaces and sediments are crucial to unravelling the patterns of existing high-
contrast soils that occur side-by-side.
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APPENDIX C: CES CHARTER
APPENDIX C
CHARTER
COMMITTEE ON EARTH SCIENCES
of the
Federal Coordinating Council for Science, Engineering, and Technology
The Committee on Earth Sciences (CES) is hereby established by action of the Federal Coordi-
nating Council for Science, Engineering, and Technology (FCCSET). FCCSET derives its current
authority from Executive Order 12039 of February 24, 1978.
Purpose and Functions
A goal of Earth sciences is to understand, on a global scale, how the highly interactive system
comprised of the solid Earth, the oceans, the atmosphere and magnetosphere, and the biosphere has
evolved, how it functions today, and how it will evolve in the future. In addition to the basic re-
search, important components of Earth science R&D include continued development of the technol-
ogy for needed observations of the Earth system and increased emphasis on collection, analysis and
archival of data on a global scale from satellite and ground-based measurements needed for long-
term research efforts and also needed to address national policy issues which depend on a characteri-
zation of humankind's impact, or potential impact, on the global environment. The purpose of the
Committee on Earth Sciences is to increase the overall effectiveness and productivity of Federal
R&D efforts directed toward an understanding of the Earth as a global system. In fulfilling this
purpose, the Committee addresses significant national policy matters which cut across agency
boundaries.
Specifically the CES:
a. reviews Federal R&D programs in Earth sciences including both national and international
programs;
b. improves planning, coordination, and communication among Federal agencies engaged in
Earth sciences R&D;
c. identifies and defines Earth sciences R&D needs;
d. develops and updates long-range plans for the overall Federal R&D effort in Earth sciences;
e. addresses specific programmatic and operational issues and problems which affect two or
more Federal agencies;
f. provides reviews, analyses, advice and recommendations to the Chairperson of FCCSET on
Federal policies and programs concerned with Earth sciences R&D, particularly in assessing
humankind's impact on the global environment;
g. develops the Administration's response to the call for a report to Congress, in the NSF Au-
thorization Act of 1987, concerning Federal Government action with respect to the establish-
ment of an International Year of the Greenhouse Effect mandated in calendar year 1991.
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APPENDIX C: CES CHARTER
Structure
The Chairperson and Vice-Chairperson of the CES are appointed by the Chairperson of
FCCSET; the Vice-Chairperson is from an agency other than that which the Chairperson represents.
The Executive Secretary is designated by the CES Chairperson. Additional staff assistance is pro-
vided by member agencies as required by the Committee. Chairpersons of CES task forces or
working groups arrange assistance from their own agencies.
The following departments and agencies are represented on this Committee:
Department of Agriculture
Department of Commerce
Department of Energy
Department of the Interior
Department of State
National Science Foundation
Environmental Protection Agency
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Office of Science and Technology Policy
Office of Management and Budget
Council on Environmental Quality
Other Federal agencies participate, as appropriate, upon invitation by the Committee Chairperson
or the Chairperson of FCCSET.
The CES Chairperson approves the establishment, continuation, or termination of task forces and
working groups as necessary to achieve the Committee's purposes. Membership on such task forces
and working groups is not restricted to Committee members and is established as the Committee
may determine appropriate.
The Committee meets at the call of the CES Chairperson who also approves the agenda. Meet-
ings are held not less than two times a year. Meetings of task forces and working groups are held as
necessary to meet their specific objectives. Minutes of meetings are prepared by the Committee
Executive Secretary and distributed to all members of the Committee, the leaders of task forces and
working groups, and to the Executive Secretary of FCCSET.
Compensation
All members are full-time Federal employees who are allowed reimbursement for travel ex-
penses by their agencies plus per diem or subsistence while serving away from their duty stations
and in accordance with standard governmental travel regulations.
Documentation
Agendas and records of actions of Committee meetings are prepared and disseminated to mem-
bers by the Executive Secretary. Records of actions are submitted to members for approval. Com-
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APPENDIX C: CES CHARTER
plete records of all Committee activities, including those of task forces and working groups, are
maintained in the office of the Chairperson. The Committee prepares a report for the Chairperson
of FCCSET not later than 60 days after the end of each fiscal year. The report contains, as a mini-
mum, the Committee's functions, a list of members and their business addresses, the dates and
places of meetings, and a summary of the Committee's activities and recommendations during the
year.
Termination date
Unless renewed by the Chairperson of FCCSET prior to its expiration, the Committee on Earth
Sciences of FCCSET shall terminate not later than December 31, 1990.
Determination
I hereby determine that the formation of the Committee on Earth Sciences is in the public
interest in connection with the performance of duties imposed on the Executive Branch by law and
that such duties can best be performed through the advice and counsel of such a group.
Approved:
William R. Mraham
March 6, 1987
Date
Chairman, FCCSET
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APPENDIX C: CES CHARTER
Appointment of New Member
and Amendment to the Charter
of the
Committee on Earth Sciences
(FCCSET)
APPOINTMENT: By my authority as Chairman, Federal Coordinating Council for Science, Engi-
neering, and Technology (FCCSET), I appoint the Department of Transportation as a permanent
member of the Committee on Earth Sciences (CES).
AMENDMENT: Charter of the Committee on Earth Sciences of the Federal Coordinating Council
for Science, Engineering, and Technology as signed and approved on March 6, 1987, by the Chair-
man, FCCSET, is amended as follows.
Under the Section "Structure," add the following new member:
"Department of Transportation"
August 24, 1988
William R. Mraham
Date
William R. Graham, Chairman
Federal Coordinating Council
for Science, Engineering,
and Technology
C-4
Global patterns of biological productivity showing land and ocean vegetation. Land patterns are
determined from measurements taken from the NOAA-7 polar orbiting satellite and ocean patterns
from the NASA Nimbus-7 satellite. Ocean productivity patterns represent an average over 18
months and range from red (most productive) to purple (least productive). Land patterns represent
the potential productivity averaged over 3 years and range from deep green (representing rain
forests) to beige (representing deserts and barren regions).
The U.S. Global Change
Research Program