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America's Climate Change Strategy An Action Agenda [Pamphlets]
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Emily Mead Subject Files
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Originally Processed With FOIA(s): FOIA Number: 2017-0310-F 2017-0310-F FOIA MARKER This is not a textual record. This is used as an administrative marker by the George Bush Presidential Library Staff. Record Group/Collection: George H.W. Bush Presidential Records Collection/Office of Origin: Policy Development, White House Office of Series: Mead, Emily, Files Subseries: OA/ID Number: 23371 Folder ID Number: 23371-001 Folder Title: America's Climate Change Strategy An Action Agenda [Pamphlets] Stack: Row: Section: Shelf: Position: G 23 16 5 America's Climate Change Strategy PASSIDENT THE OF SEAL OF STATES UNUM THE UNITED An Action Agenda CLIMATE CHANGE: Comprehensive Approach Gases N2O H2O COS CO2 CH4 Sinks Rainforest New Growth Forest Old Growth Forest Sources Electrical & Industrial Production Transportation Rice Paddies Global Warming Potential Index WAVELENGTH ESTIMATED LIFETIME, YEARS RADIATIVE FORCING 5 CFC-115 CO2 4 CF3Br CFC-114 CH4 3 CFC-113 N2O HFC-125 2 CC14 CFC-11 1 HFC-143a CFC-12 HCFC-22 0 LEADERSHIP AND ACTION President Bush has established the The actions which are currently comprehensive strategy for action and included in the U.S. Climate Change leadership outlined on the following Strategy will result in U.S. greenhouse pages. This strategy flows from his gas emissions in the year 2000 being commitment to responsible equal to or below the 1987 level. In stewardship of our planet, which addition, the U.S. has essentially includes the promotion of economic stabilized its emissions of carbon growth and sound environmental dioxide (CO2) over the last 15 years policies. It is built upon a series of despite a growth in economic output of actions which will have broad ranging about 50 percent. During this same benefits-from curbing air pollution, to period, global carbon dioxide emissions conserving energy, to restoring forest have increased substantially. lands-and which will help curb net to develop and to accelerate the greenhouse gas emissions. This U.S. Strategy for Climate adoption of economically sound, Change includes many specific actions: environmentally beneficial, and The U.S. believes that any eliminating stratospheric ozone- energy efficient technologies. successful global climate change depleting compounds which are also strategy must be: strong greenhouse gases; In total, the U.S. proposes to comprehensive, incorporating all directly controlling various invest over 2 billion dollars in these relevant greenhouse gases, their greenhouse gases and their precursors R&D efforts next year alone. sources and sinks; which are also air pollutants; long term, taking into account the reducing utility and other industrial In August 1990, the full range of social, economic, and emissions in a way that strongly Intergovermental Panel on Climate environmental consequences of encourages energy efficiency; Change (IPCC) declared in its proposed actions for this and future increasing forest greenhouse gas Overview: "A comprehensive strategy generations; sinks; addressing all aspects of the problem flexible, built on many diverse encouraging energy efficiency in and reflecting environmental, actions (including market such areas as buildings, appliances, economic, and social costs and benefits incentives) and readily adjustable as and lighting; and is necessary." knowledge is improved through a increasing the use of renewable and The President of the United States robust research and development non-fossil sources of energy. has established such a comprehensive program; and, strategy. The United States, today, is integrated, designed to involve all Integral to the U.S. Climate working to curb emissions, promote nations and dynamically reflect and Change Strategy is the world's largest economic growth, and exercise incorporate each nation's unique program of research and development: leadership in meeting our shared circumstances into the development to increase our scientific and responsibilities as stewards of the of a truly global response strategy. economic understanding of climate planet. change and to provide a sound knowledge base for making major The United States is taking policy decisions; and, action. GOAL: To establish the scientific basis for National and International policy making relating to natural and human-induced changes in the global Earth system. particularly the climate aspects. This is Specifically, the USGCRP research ecological dynamics wh to be complemented by a program of will focus on understanding the impacted by and respo economics research to better processes affecting: change. understand the economic factors and changing concentrations of greenhouse 2. Enhance scienti consequences of global change and gases which are implicated in future economic research to sup various mitigation and adaptation global warming predictions; development and implet strategies. It is the intent of the clouds and radiative balance which comprehensive approach to US/GCRP to provide leaders of strongly influence the magnitude of gas emissions reductions government with the best possible climate change at global and regional focus on: scientific and economic information as scales; sources and sinks of gree inputs to environmental policy oceans which influence the timing development of a quant decisions. and patterns of climate change; radiative forcing; and The highest priorities for the land-surface hydrology which affects development and use < US/GCRP in FY 1992 are to: regional climate change and water models to generate prec 1. Enhance scientific research availability; scenarios that cover m efforts that seek to reduce the scientific polar ice sheets which affect greenhouse gases and uncertainties identified during the IPCC predictions of global sea level economic sectors. scientific and impact assessments. changes; and The ultimate goals C US/GCRP are to (1) Ob predictive understanding INTEGRATING THEMES FOR RESEARCH interactive physical, che biological, geological, an processes that regulate n human-induced changes Climate Earth system and, (2) Pr scientific and economic national and internation Global policy-making related to H2O & the global environment Energy regional impacts. Cycles OBJECTIVES Global Establish an integrated, comprehensive long- Carbon term program of documenting the Earth Cycles system on a global scale. Conduct a program of focused studies to improve our understanding of the physical, HYTO- ZOO- geological, chemical, biological, and social ANKTON PLANKTON Ecological processes that influence Earth system processes and trends on global and regional NUTRIENT System & scales. RECYCLING Dynamics Develop integrated conceptual and predictive Earth system models. OCEAN SEDIMENTS response strategies. provides about 50% of the financial observations, with a full scale Earth The U.S. Global Change Research support, is coordinated through United Observing System (EOS) in full Program (US/GCRP) has been Nations scientific bodies (i.e., WMO, operation by 1998. developed as a central component of IOC, and UNEP), and through the The central task of the US/GCRP the United State's approach to global International Council of Scientific is to develop predictive understanding change, and more specifically to Unions (ICSU). of the Earth's systems processes, address the uncertainties identified by the IPCC. In FY 1992, the U.S plans to invest almost $1.2 billion in this Program, which virtually doubles the U.S. commitment to the research CLIMATE PROCESSES program of the US/GCRP since it was initiated in FY 1990 (see chart below). OZONE DEPLETING GASES O3 SO2 NOx H2O CO2 CH4 N2O Funding for Global Change Research Focused FOSSIL-FUEL Programs CONSUMPTION RESPIRATION 1200 INDUSTRIAL TRANSPIRATION DECOMPOSITION ACTIVITIES N2 CARBON, 1000 NITROGEN, SULFUR, AGRICULTURAL 800 PHOSPHORUS, ACTIVITIES Millions of Dollars IN PLANTS & ANIMALS 600 400 UREA RUNOFF TOXIC R 200 METALS NITRATES, NITRATE, DEAD 0 SULFATES, ORGANIC MATTER NITROGEN PHOSPHATES AND DECOMPOSERS 1989 1990 1991 1992 FIXING BACTERIA Source: U.S. Office of Management & Budget PHOSPHATES Pollution Expenditures United States' declines in emissions U.S. Pollution Control Expenditures of volatile organic compounds, carbon 90000 monoxide, CFCs, and, to some degree, 80000 the stabilization of carbon dioxide 70000 emissions over the period from the 60000 early 1970's to the present can be Millions of 1986 Dollars attributed, in part, to U.S. investment 50000 to protect and to clean up the 40000 environment. U.S. spending for all 30000 pollution control purposes over the 20000 period is shown in Chart 29. It has 10000 grown by 100 percent from 1972 to 0 1972 1974 1975 1977 1978 1980 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 CHART 28 1989. It is expected to continue 1973 1976 1979 1981 1989 growing. Enactment of the Clean Air From EPA, "Environmental Investments: the Cost of a Clean Act Amendments of 1990 alone is Environment", July 6, 1990 draft. estimated to increase U.S. pollution control expenditures by an additional $25 billion a year when fully implemented. U.S. pollution control spending Improvement in New Car Fuel has historically been larger compared Economy, 1973-1987 to the country's Gross Domestic Product than spending by other countries for which data is available. 100 90 80 Percent increase in Miles per Gallon 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 CHART 29 0 ITALY JAPAN W. GERM. UK US Source: same as chart 27. Page 19 TRENDS: Transportation Population density in the United States is 5 to 10 times less than in Population Density per Square Mile, 1988 many of the other G-7 countries (Chart 26). With such a low density, 900 the U.S. spatial spread between work 800 and home naturally increases 700 transportation use per capita. 600 Distribution of economic activities across a wide continent requires Persons / Square Mile 500 substantial energy consumption for 400 moving people and freight long 300 distances. Transportation energy 200 consumption per capita is highest in 100 the United States and Canada and 0 CHART 26 substantially lower in the G-7 US countries with high population CANADA JAPAN FRANCE ITALY densities. W. GERM. UK New car fuel efficiencies in the Population from OECD, "National Accounts 1960-1988" Vol 1 (Paris, 1990) United States are now roughly even Area from Pharos Books "The World Almanac and Book of Facts 1990", (New York, 1989) with those of most of the other G-7 countries (Chart 27), despite much more demanding U.S. emissions and auto safety standards. The U.S. 1987 New Car Fuel Efficiency miles per gallon ratio was 28.3, within 40 a relatively narrow range from Japan at US 35 27.7 to the United Kingdom at 31.8. The U.S. from 1973 to 1987 increased 30 CANADA its new car fuel economy by almost 100 25 JAPAN percent (Chart 29). Miles/Gallon 20 FRANCE 15 ITALY 10 W GERM 5 0 UK 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 CHART 27 From OECD, "Energy Conservation in IEA Countries" (Paris 1987); IEA country submissions; and Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (French amounts) Conversion factors: 3.785 liters per gallon, 1.609 kilometers per mile. Page 18 Energy consumption per unit GDP in the U.S. is comparable to other G-7 countries. Energy per GDP 1988 30 25 1000 BTUs/GDP (1985 U.S. $) 20 15 10 5 0 CHART 25 US CANADA JAPAN FRANCE ITALY UK W. GERM. From Chart 23 data Page 17 TRENDS: Energy Intensity Chart 23 compares United States energy consumption per unit of gross Energy Consumption per Unit of GDP domestic product (GDP) with Canada, 35 Japan, France, Italy, West Germany US and the United Kingdom-the other 30 CANADA G-7 countries. 1000 BTUs/GDP (1985 U. S. $) 25 As shown in Chart 23, the United JAPAN 20 States has improved its energy FRANCE use/GDP ratio since 1970, averaging 15 an annual improvement of 2 percent ITALY 10 per year. In 1988 the U.S. used only 5 W GERM 70.9 % as much energy per unit of GDP as it used in 1970. 0 UK The United States' rate of 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 improvement in the industrial energy CHART 23 Total Consumption in Quads from International and Contingency use/gross product orginating (GPO) Information Division, Statistics Branch, Energy Information Administration ratio has been greater than most other GDP in 1985 $ from "National Accounts 1960-1988", OECD (Paris 1990) G-7 countries, averaging close to 3 percent per year since 1977 (Chart 24). Since the early 1970s, the United States has improved its heating efficiency on an energy used per square foot per degree day basis. The U.S. used in 1987 only 68.4% of the energy Savings in Energy per GPO ('77-'86) used per square foot in 1972. Today, U.S. energy use in dwellings per square foot per degree day is much lower than 45 most other G-7 countries. 40 35 % of Savings 1977-1986 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 US CANADA JAPAN FRANCE ITALY W. GERM. UK CHART 24 From same source as Chart 23 Page 16 Trends in Carbon Dioxide Emissions Chart 21 compares the U.S. trend to countries which have experienced U.S. and High Emissions Growth Countries substantial growth in emissions. 300 US 250 USSR 200 CHINA 1973 = 100 150 INDIA 100 MEXICO 50 R. KOREA CHART21 0 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1685 1986 1987 1988 Calculated from data in DOE, "Trends '90, A Compendium of Data on Global Change", August 1990 Trends in Carbon Dioxide Emissions Chart 22 compares the U.S. trend to U.S. and G-7 Countries industrial countries which have 120 experienced moderate growth or US decline in emissions. 100 JAPAN 80 GERMANY 1973 = 100 60 UK 40 CANADA 20 FRANCE ITALY 0 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1685 1986 1987 1988 CHART 22 Calculated from data in DOE, "Trends '90, A Compendium of Data on Global Change", August 1990 Page 15 TRENDS: CO2 Emissions United States emissions in 1988 were Growth in CO2 Emissions and U.S. GDP only 2.7% above the 1973 level, despite the fact that real U.S. Gross 4500 Domestic Product (GDP), in 1985 4000 dollars, grew by 48 percent over that GDP period. 3500 $ 3000 Million metric tons carbon A key unanswered question about 2500 responding to the climate change issue GDP is how to achieve economic growth in $ 2000 U.S. GDP (billions of developing countries and economic 1500 dollars) reform in formerly centrally-planned countries without massive increases in 1000 CO2 CO2 greenhouse gas emissions. 500 CHART 19 0 It is important to remember that anthropogenic emissions of CO2 1973 1988 contribute about 4% of the total global Source DOE Trends '90; OECD National Accounts, 1960-1988, (Paris 1990) GDP deflators 1982=100 Source 1990 Economic Report CO2 flux. Charts 21 and 22 compare the recent U.S. emissions trend with countries which contain most of the world's Emissions of CO2 Per Unit of GDP, 1988 population. Those in Chart 21 have trends of rapidly growing CO2 emissions, and are likely to have 350 substantial emissions growth in the 300 coming decades. Metric Tons C/GDP (Millions 1985 $) 250 200 150 100 50 0 CANADA UK US W. GERM. ITALY JAPAN FRANCE CHART 20 Emissions from DOE, "Trends '90, A Compendium of Data on Global Change", August 1990. GDP from OECD, "National Accounts 1960-1988", (Paris 1990) Page 14 Conservation and Renewable R&D The U.S. is funding a large research materials, improved terminal Total FY 1992 funding for research and development program for operations, and improved air traffic in new energy technologies is over conservation and renewable energy. In control. $900 million. Fiscal Year 1992, this effort is increased An initiative to address the by 18 percent to a level of $495 problem of combustion emissions in million, which represents an increase waste-to-energy plants is being started. of over 50% since 1989. Further, alternative-fuel vehicle In the long run, an adequate demonstration and a scale-up of a response to climate change will involve wood-to-ethanol process are being the use of new technologies that initiated. conserve energy or that provide energy Industrial energy efficiency R&D without causing greenhouse gas includes funding for more efficient emissions. These technologies will be steel, aluminum, and paper processes. needed in all of the economy's sectors. A scale-up and test of the use of The Administration is proposing concentrated solar energy to detoxify to initiate, in the fiscal year 1992 liquid wastes is also planned. budget, a new joint auto industry- Building energy efficiency research government consortium to develop a focuses on the interactions of energy battery for electric vehicles. Improved systems, and the efficient use of batteries could extend vehicle range to advanced window technologies and 120 to 200 miles. Fuel-cell-powered building materials to control light and electric vehicles offer the potential to heat entering a building. achieve up to 50 percent efficiencies. R&D for energy efficiency in transportation includes work on high temperature internal combustion engines, gas turbine engines, fuel cells and a new initiative for electric vehicles. Air transportation energy efficiency work includes research in hybrid laminar flow, composite Page 13 ENERGY INITIATIVES: Renewables and Non-fossil Fuels Accelerate the transfer of photovoltaic nuclear energy plants reduce overall conditions that would be extremely technology to U.S. commercial U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide by serious for present-day reactors; production: nine percent. Worldwide, nuclear Reforming the nuclear licensing Recent laboratory research has energy reduces these emissions by more process through consolidation of the achieved photovoltaic efficiencies of than seven percent. redundant aspects of the over 30%. With such efficiencies and A comprehensive strategy for construction and operating licensing improved manufacturing, today's $4-5 nuclear energy is being developed as a processes, without compromising prices per peak watt could be cut in part of the National Energy Strategy nuclear safety concerns; and, half. and is supported in the President's Developing a long-term solution to The U.S. will start an intensive Fiscal Year 1992 budget. This strategy the nuclear waste problem by effort with industry to understand includes: developing a permanent repository, potential improvements in and possibly an interim retrievable photovoltaic processes. Industry joint Developing advanced light water storage facility. ventures to provide practical solutions reactors that will incorporate passive DOE is funding programs that are and maximize transfer of results will be safety features in a standardized supporting growth in nuclear energy encouraged. The U.S. will also provide (modular) design. This will reduce capacity and the life extension of many cost-shared technical assistance to the time needed to license new currently operating plants. According adapt manufacturing improvement plants, while assuring that safety to analysis done for the National techniques to specific processes. By issues are adequately addressed. The Energy Strategy, support from DOE is the year 2000, greenhouse gas emission U.S. is currently supporting first-of-a- expected to result in adding new reductions will begin to phase in at kind engineering work that will assist nuclear capacity by 2000, which would 500,000 metric tons of carbon companies in their efforts to have the result in further reductions in equivalent. Nuclear Regulatory Commission greenhouse gas emissions. certify the safety of standardized Expand nuclear energy capacity: designs; Increase transportation use of As the Nation enters the 1990s, Conducting research and alternative fuels. nuclear power is the second largest development on advanced reactor Use of oxygenated fuels, such as source of U.S. electricity, providing concepts with safety features that go ethanol, can reduce urban smog levels almost 20 percent of America's beyond even the standardized designs and emissions of CO2 and carbon electricity needs, and nuclear power ("to be intrinsically safe") currently monoxide. causes no greenhouse gases. before the Nuclear Regulatory U.S. research has demonstrated Because of the availability of Commission. High temperature gas the technical feasibility of the nuclear power the nation is able to cooled reactors use specially coated processes to produce ethanol from non- avoid the use of large amounts of fossil fuel elements that will not fail even food domestic resources such as wood fuels. In terms of the displacement of under the high temperatures that or herbaceous crops. fossil fuels, nuclear power can be could occur in an accident. Liquid The U.S. will expand current thought of as reducing utility metal reactors use liquid sodium as research programs in alternative fuels emissions of carbon dioxide-a major the heat exchange medium. to include cost-shared joint ventures greenhouse gas-by 20 percent, or Researchers have demonstrated that aimed at reducing the cost of ethanol approximately 128 million tons, these new reactor types can shut from non-food resources. This effort annually in the U.S. In effect, then, themselves down safely under will be coordinated with industry vehicle and engine development Page 12 programs. Expand national energy audit More efficient lighting in federal capabilities and use. facilities. Industry, with some 350,000 Twenty-five percent of federal separate establishments, uses 24.7 agency energy use is for lighting of quads of energy annually. Many facilities. However, lack of adequate options exist for low-cost quick payoff flexibility for facility managers and energy saving investments, but smaller restrictive procurement practices have firms often lack the information, slowed adoption of efficient new expertise, and specialized resources to technologies. do energy audits of their plants. The U.S. will identify energy The U.S. will increase its program savings options in Federal facilities. to train engineers in energy audit and Project plans, procurement methods, diagnostic methods from the current and financing options will be 13 engineering schools to 40 developed to overcome the barriers to nationwide in the year 2000. This will improve lighting efficiency. This will reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the reduce greenhouse gases in the year year 2000 by 6 million metric tons 2000 by 1.4 million metric tons carbon carbon equivalent. equivalent. U.S. Savings in Emissions From Initiatives in Energy Efficiency and Renewables. 70 Federal Building Lighting 60 Appliance Standards Selected NES Initiatives 50 Million Metric Tons Carbon Equivalent Energy Analysis & Diagnostic Centers 40 Interim Building Standards Least Cost Utility Planning 30 20 10 From EPA, "The Cost of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the United States", Presentation by Alex CHART 17 Cristofaro, Director, Air and Energy 0 Policy Division, December 4, 1990 2000 2010 Page 11 ENERGY INITIATIVES: Efficiency The Administration is currently developing and will announce shortly a National Energy Strategy that will further contribute to the greenhouse gas emissions reductions cited here. Certain National Energy Strategy initiatives have been included in some of the calculations in this document. T he U.S. strategy for action Level Playing Field Between Encourage use of energy efficient Electricity Supply and Demand building standards. includes a number of other energy Reduction. efficiency measures beyond those in Both the U.S. and the private In some cases utilities can meet the Clean Air Act. sector have developed standards that demands for energy services without would achieve 20-25% energy savings More efficient new appliance any additional greenhouse gas in buildings. They could save $5 standards. emissions by investing in energy billion over 20 years from the new Large appliances account for over efficiency rather than by increasing buildings built in a single year. two thirds of home energy usage, electricity supply. Utilities in only 15 The U.S. will promote voluntary excluding space heating. In the past states are now fully able to recover use of these standards through training costs from such investments. Absent three years the U.S. has imposed programs, design manuals and energy efficiency standards on many of such efficiency measures, new capacity computer-aided design systems. It will the most energy-intensive appliances, requirements by the year 2000 are encourage State and local governments including refrigerator/freezers, clothes projected at more than 100,000 MW. to use the standards in their building The U.S. will work with the States washers, dryers, and dishwashers. codes. These actions to encourage These standards should achieve annual to identify regulatory barriers that adoption of the most energy efficient energy savings of 7-8% relative to discourage utility investment in cost modern technology in residential and projected use by the year 2000, and 14- effective energy efficiency. Utility commercial building will reduce 15% relative to projected use by the planning techniques will be developed greenhouse gas emissions in 2000 by to consider all alternatives and their 8.2 million metric tons of carbon year 2010. The imposition of appliance costs. The U.S. will provide training, equivalent. information dissemination, and other Use of the modern standard in standards has already resulted in a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. types of technology transfer activities. public housing assistance programs will As older appliances are replaced with These actions will reduce greenhouse reduce greenhouse gas emissions by new, environmentally friendly models, gas emissions in the year 2000 by 9 800,000 metric tons carbon equivalent the greenhouse gas reductions will million metric tons carbon equivalent. in 2000. increase dramatically. By the year 2000, the U.S. anticipates an annual reduction of 4.4 million tons of carbon equivalent from projected greenhouse gas emission due to these standards; the annual reduction will increase to 4.9 million tons of carbon equivalent in 2010. Page 10 Reductions in Carbon Dioxide Emissions From Tree Planting Initiative 50 45 40 35 Million metric tonnes C 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 CHART 15 2000 2010 From EPA, "The Cost of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the United States", Presentation by Alex Cristofaro, Director, Air and Energy Policy Division, December 4, 1990 To put the power of trees as "sinks" into perspective, consider the example of an acre of improved Tree Planting Initiative stock of southern pine planted on a Example Carbon Sequestration by Age of Stand (Cutover) high quality site in the southeastern 6000 U.S. In the 15th year after 5000 planting these trees would take up between 5700 and 6200 pounds of 4000 Pounds of Carbon/Acre/Year carbon per acre. While the amount 3000 taken up declines thereafter as the trees mature, additional carbon 2000 continues to be taken up. 1000 (See Chart 16) 0 CHART 16 -1000 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 Source: U.S. Forest Service Page 9 ENHANCING NATURAL SINKS T he term "sinks" of greenhouse gases One purpose of this initiative is to and potentially enormously valuable is meant to include human and natural improve the condition of private, non- heritage for all humankind. Temperate activities, processes, and phenomena industrial forest lands which now are zone forests are being damaged by air that remove greenhouse gases from the often in poor condition due to low pollution stresses and tropical forests atmosphere or reduce their atmo- levels of management and investment. are being rapidly lost. spheric lifetimes. Examples include Improving these lands will increase The U.S. believes that the forest forests, soils and oceans. The IPCC benefits from soil protection, wildlife, convention should emphasize market- recognized the importance of sinks in a wood products, and recreation. based mechanisms and flexibility to report of its Response Strategies Work This initiative also will have achieve sound, sustainable forest use, Group (RSWG): The RSWG climate change benefits through the to improve the health and vigor of reviewed potential measures for carbon which growing trees (sinks) forests, to encourage reforestation, and mitigating climate change These remove from the air and store both as to increase the value of forests as measures include those which limit plant tissue and in the soil. The sources of income and jobs. In emissions from greenhouse gas sources estimates of carbon removed from the addition, increasing the productivity of (such as energy production and use), atmosphere by the trees to be planted activities using the land base can those which increase the use of natural under the initiative are 9 million minimize deforestation. sinks (such as immature forests and metric tons of carbon annually by the Areas suggested for international other biomass) for sequestering year 2000, growing to 50 million tons cooperation and joint action include: greenhouse gases, as well as those per year by 2010. (See Chart 15) reforestation and rehabilitation; measures aimed at protecting reservoirs research and monitoring; education, such as existing forests." training, and technical assistance; Global Forest Convention reform of the Tropical Forestry Action Reforestation Plan; reduction of air pollution; The President proposed at the bilateral and multilateral assistance; The President has included in Summit of Industrialized Nations in debt-for-nature swaps; and removal of both his FY 1991 and FY 1992 Budgets July 1990 at Houston to begin harmful subsidies. a major, multiyear reforestation negotiations as expeditiously as proposal to plant one billion trees per possible on a global convention on year on 1.5 million acres and to forests, aiming for completion and improve forest management practices. signing by 1992. This initiative will encompass cities The world's forests absorb carbon and towns across America, as well as dioxide as well as provide many rural, private, non-industrial forest benefits in the form of timber and fiber, lands. It comes in addition to soil and water protection, biodiversity, reforestation which Federal agencies wildlife habitat, recreation and other and private companies normally valuable outputs. They provide the perform on lands under their habitat for some 80% of the planet's jurisdiction. remaining unknown and unspecified gene pool-a completely irreplaceable Page 8 Trends in Emissions of Carbon monoxide, 1970-1987, 120 70 100 TRANSPORT 60 TOTAL 50 80 Million Metric Tons Million Metric Tons 40 60 30 40 20 20 10 0 0 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1987 2000 Source: U.S. EPA CHART 9 From EPA, "National Air Pollution and Emission Estimates, 1940-1982" Feb. 1984 EPA, "National Air Quality and Emissions Trend Report, 1988" March 1990. EPA, "National Air Quality and Emissions Trend Report, 1987" March 1989. CHART 8 Trends in Emissions of Reactive Volatile Organic Compounds 1970-1987 30 20 18 TRANSPORT 25 16 TOTAL 14 Million Metric Tons 20 15 Million Metric Tons 12 10 8 10 6 4 5 2 0 0 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1987 2000 Source: U.S. EPA CHART II From same sources as Chart 8 CHART 10 Trends in Emissions of NOx 25 20 18 20 16 14 Million Metric Tons 15 TRANSPORT Million Metric Tons 12 10 TOTAL 10 8 6 5 4 2 0 0 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1987 2000 Source: U.S. EPA CHART 13 From same sources as Chart 8 CHART 12 Page 7 THE 1990 CLEAN AIR ACT AMENDMENTS The 1990 Clean Air Act to adopt advanced, energy efficient cities are expected to introduce fuels Amendments, signed by the President technologies that will lower overall and vehicle technology which will in November 1990, will achieve emissions, including carbon dioxide. emit fewer greenhouse gases. substantial reductions of greenhouse The Act is also expected to induce oil- Beginning in model year 1994, new gases and their chemical precursors. burning utilities to switch to natural tailpipe emissions standards for The Act will reduce U.S. emissions of gas, which produces less greenhouse gas hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, and volatile organic compounds, carbon emissions than does oil. nitrogen oxides will be phased-in. monoxide, and nitrogen oxides, which Auto manufacturers will also have to will curb tropospheric ozone levels, in Smog Reductions reduce refueling emissions. Gasoline addition to reducing emissions of the Substantial reductions in either volatility will be reduced and cleaner more familiar pollutants such as sulfur greenhouse gases or their chemical fuels will be required in the nine cities dioxide. When converted into precursors also will result from new with the worst ozone problems and in equivalent units of carbon emissions, controls on stationary and mobile 41 areas during the winter months taken together, these reductions will sources mandated by the new Act in when carbon monoxide standards are amount to a 16% decrease in order to bring cities into attainment of exceeded. A clean fuel car pilot greenhouse gases from these affected national air quality standards. A wide program in California will use sources between the years 1987 and variety of stationary sources of volatile combinations of vehicle technology 2000. Moreover, the Act will result in organic compounds will be required to and cleaner fuels to meet tight direct carbon dioxide reductions due to reduce emissions by adding controls or standards. Twenty-six areas will have more efficient electricity generation. by changing production processes. to limit emissions from centrally-fueled Newly tightened automobile emission fleets of 10 or more vehicles. Electric Utilities standards will further reduce emissions The most dramatic reductions will of hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, Regulations also are being come from electric utilities. Under the and nitrogen oxides, and new controls proposed under the new source Act, utilities, which must reduce sulfur on gasoline evaporation will greatly cut performance standards of the Clean dioxide (SO2) emissions by 10 million volatile organic emissions. In addition, Air Act to require capture of pollutant tons below 1980 levels, are given the gasoline itself will be reformulated to gases which are given off by landfills. flexibility to choose how to achieve reduce its volatility, thus reducing The purpose of the regulations is to these reductions. Utilities are thus free volatile organic emissions at the capture air toxics and volatile organic to choose cost-effective conservation source. In total, these various compounds which are the chemical measures to achieve compliance. This requirements of the Act will result in a precursors of the greenhouse gas ozone. powerful conservation stimulus should sharp and steady drop in U.S. Methane also will be captured and, if it sharply reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) tropospheric ozone, which is a key is not economic to be processed, it will emissions from this sector. greenhouse gas. be flared. Greenhouse gas emissions in Further, the Act requires utilities the year 2000 will be reduced by to reduce their nitrogen oxide Cleaner Fuels & Cleaner Cars approximately 40 million tons of emissions by two million tons from The Act will dramatically expand carbon equivalent. projected levels under the acid rain the introduction of clean-burning provisions. These provisions also alternative fuels into the U.S. contain strong incentives for both transportation sector. Several large electric utilities and industrial sources states and the fleets of America's major Page 6 Phase-Out of Major CFCs 100 90 80 PROTOCOL Percent of Base Year 70 US CAA 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 CHART 3 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 From Article 2A - 2E, Montreal Protocol text and Title 6 of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 CAA did not apply in 1990 Phase-Out of Carbon Phase-Out of Halons Tetrachloride 100 100 90 90 80 PROTOCOL 80 FEE Percent of Base Year 70 US CAA Percent of Base Year 70 US CAA 60 60 50 50 PROTOCOL 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 CHART 5 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 From Article 2A 2E, Montreal Protocol text and From Article 2A 2E, Montreal Protocol text and Title 6 of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 Title 6 of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 Production estimates under the User Fee are CHART 4 based on Treasury Department estimates CHART 7 Phase-Out of Methyl Chloroform Phase-Out of Other CFCs 100 90 90 80 FEE 80 PROTOCOL 70 Percent of Base Year 70 US CAA 60 PROTOCOL 50 Percent of Base Year 60 US CAA 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 CHART 6 0 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 From Article 2A 2E, Montreal Protocol text and From Article 2A 2E, Montreal Protocol text and Title 6 of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 Title 6 of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 Production estimates under the User Fee are based on Treasury Department estimates Page 5 PHASING OUT CFC's T he United States has long taken a BEYOND THE MONTREAL THE U.S. IS AHEAD OF leadership role in addressing the PROTOCOL SCHEDULE problem of stratospheric ozone depletion. In 1978, the U.S. banned The U.S. has enacted legislative In addition to the more restrictive the use of CFCs as propellants in spray provisions in the recent Clean Air Act phase-out schedules required by the can products. Such use was considered amendments which will phase out Clean Air Act, the 1989 Budget a low value use which could be forgone U.S. production and consumption of Reconciliation Act enacted a tax on given the potential damage which it these ozone-depleting compounds ozone-depleting chemicals during the was believed CFCs might be causing. more quickly than the amended period of phase-out. The tax rates for Most other countries continued to use Montreal Protocol provisions. (See each compound are its ozone-depleting CFCs as propellants. charts opposite) potential (ODP) multiplied by $1.37 At the London Meeting of Parties For each and every one of these per pound in 1990 and 1991, $1.67 in to the Montreal Protocol, the U.S. compound groups and gases, the Clean 1992, $2.65 in 1993 and 1994, and an supported a complete world-wide Air Act reduces the allowed U.S. increase of an additional $0.45 in each phase-out of CFCs, halons, and certain production and consumption between year after 1994. other ozone-depleting substances such now and the final phase-out date This tax has already helped to as carbon tetrachloride and methyl substantially below what the Protocol reduce U.S. CFC production in the chloroform. The Protocol was permits. (For example, see Chart 3 12-month period ending June 30, amended to achieve that objective. regarding CFC production) 1990 to 23% below the levels Between now and the phase-out permitted by the Montreal Protocol deadlines, the U.S., under the and other U.S. law. mandates of the Clean Air Act, must While these actions by the United reduce U.S. production below what is States are justified by their benefits permitted by the Montreal Protocol by relating to stratospheric ozone at least the following amounts: depletion, they are also very highly significant for climate change. CFCs, halons, and carbon tetrachloride are extremely powerful greenhouse gases, thousands of times more powerful than "Cumulative Near-term Reductions in carbon dioxide. Clean Air Act Below the Montreal Protocol" Major CFCs 19% Halons 32% Other CFCs 22% Carbon Tetrachloride 13% Methyl Chloroform 20% Page 4 The actions which are currently included in the U.S. Climate Change Strategy will result in U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in the year 2000 being equal to or below the 1987 levels. Alternative Model For Projected U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions (With Current Policy Commitments) Based on Jorgenson/Wilcoxen (1990) Model 2500 CFCs 2000 N20 Millions of metric tonnes carbon equivalents CO 1500 NOx VOCs 1000 CH4 CO2 500 0 1987 2000 From EPA, "The Cost of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the United States", Presentation by Alex Cristofaro, Director, Air and Energy Policy Division, December 4. 1990 CHART 2 Page 3 THE BOTTOM LINE Implementation of the President's Promoting the use of, and Chart 2 shows an alternative Comprehensive Climate Change accelerating research into, non-fossil estimate based upon a different Strategy will result in United States fuel energy sources such as solar, economic model prepared by greenhouse gas emissions in the year nuclear, and alternative fuels. researchers at Harvard University. 2000 being equal to or below 1987 levels. The results of these currently planned U.S. actions are illustrated by The specific actions which will Chart 1, which shows projected U.S. contribute to this result include: greenhouse gas emissions for the year 2000. The estimate is based on Phasing out CFCs and many other calculations made by the U.S. ozone-depleting compounds which Environmental Protection Agency. are also greenhouse gases; Putting a permanent ceiling on sulphur dioxide emissions at sharply reduced levels and allowing freedom of choice in meeting the ceilings, thereby encouraging energy efficiency and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Under the recently Projected U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions enacted Clean Air Act Amend- (With Current Policy Commitments) Based on IPCC CO2 Baseline Estimate ments, utilities were given the 2500 flexibility to make reductions by any CFCs means-a powerful incentive for 2000 N20 energy saving measures; Reducing, under the Clean Air Act, air pollutants which are either organic compounds, carbon Millions of metric tonnes carbon equivalents CO 1500 NOx greenhouse gases themselves or VOCs greenhouse gas precursors (volatile 1000 CH4 monoxide and nitrogen oxides); 500 CO2 Initiating a program to plant a billion trees a year and to make other 0 forest improvements, thereby enhancing sinks; 1987 2000 Implementing a number of programs From EPA, "The Cost of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the United aimed directly at speeding the States", Presentation by Alex Cristofaro, Director, Air and Energy Policy Division, December 4. 1990 adoption of energy efficient tech- CHART I nologies and practices in homes and businesses; and, Page 2 THE COMPREHENSIVE APPROACH TO CLIMATE CHANGE T he science and economics of The "Comprehensive Approach" tial" (GWP) based on the radiative human interactions with the global has several advantages: behavior of the gas in the atmosphere. climate involve multiple trace gases It provides flexibility for each nation The Intergovernmental Panel on affected by activities in every sector of to develop a diverse, innovative, Climate Change (IPCC) has calculated human society. Each of these cost-effective mix of measures to such a relative measure, giving carbon greenhouse gases is emitted from a meet its global responsibilities in a dioxide a value of one (1) and variety of sources and is trapped or manner tailored to its own domestic expressing all other gases in terms of affected by "sinks" in different ways. circumstances; carbon dioxide equivalents. This Each gas has a different residence time It is designed to employ the results of "index" enables a comparison of the in the atmosphere, a different ability to integrated scientific and economics contributions of different gases, trap heat, and different potential research on a comprehensive basis, incorporating both sources and sinks. impacts on the environment. What is leaving no important variable The comprehensive approach important in addressing future climate omitted; should inform the development of change is the total and cumulative It maximizes the benefits to the scientific and economics research, effect of all gases-all sources and all environment and to humanity from monitoring, technology development, sinks. each investment; and and each country's action plan for In November 1990, the It accounts for all greenhouse gases, dealing with global change. The costs government ministers at the Second insuring that choices do not reduce of achieving a given reduction in the World Climate Conference (SWCC) one gas but inadvertently increase added greenhouse effect will vary from declared: "We recommend that in the another. gas to gas and will vary depending on elaboration of response strategies, over The relative benefit from a unit which sources or which sinks of any time, all greenhouse gases, sources, and reduction in the net emissions of each given gas are affected. Using the sinks be considered in the most greenhouse gas can be approximated by Comprehensive Approach, for comprehensive manner possible " a measure of "global warming poten- example, maximum reduction in net climate impact-and therefore maximum benefit to the CLIMATE PROCESSES environment-can be achieved for any given level of investment. OZONE DEPLETING GASES O3 If response strategies were designed SO2 NOx to apply piecemeal to one greenhouse H2O gas or economic sector, economic CO2 CH4 N2O actors could simply adjust to such FOSSIL-FUEL CONSUMPTION RESPIRATION narrowly focused regulation by shifting INDUSTRIAL TRANSPIRATION DECOMPOSITION ACTIVITIES to unregulated activities that could N2 CARBON, NITROGEN, SULFUR, AGRICULTURAL continue to contribute to potential PHOSPHORUS, ACTIVITIES IN PLANTS & USE ANIMALS climate change. A comprehensive approach, on UREA RUNOFF PHYTO- ZOO- TOXIC the other hand, matches the scientific, PLANKTON PLANKTON METALS NITRATES NITRATE, DEAD economic, and environmental nature SULFATES, ORGANIC MATTER NUTRIENT NITROGEN PHOSPHATES AND DECOMPOSERS RECYCLING of the whole climate system. FIXING BACTERIA PHOSPHATES OCEAN SEDIMENTS * A larger report on "A Comprehensive Approach to Addressing Potental Climate Change", prepared by a U.S. Interagency Task Force is available on request. "What is important in addressing future climate change is the total and cumulative effect of all gases-all sources and all sinks." O3 Isoprene (CH) Natural VOC NOx CF3Br SO2 C6H6 CFC12 Manmade VOC Coastal Marsh Watershed Ecosystems Ocean Phytoplankton Concentrations Irrigated Land Burning Rainforest Tundra Relative Radiative Forcing Potential over Years GAS Instantaneous Radiative Atmospheric Residence Forcing per KG (rel. to CO2) Years (estimated) 20 100 500 CO2 1 120 1 1 1 CH4 58 10 63 21 9 N2O 206 150 270 290 190 CFC-11 3970 60 4500 3500 1500 CFC-12 5750 130 7100 7300 4500 Source: IPCC Scientific Assessment, 1990, Tables 2.3, 2.8 Photos: Cover: Caribbean as seen by IMAX camera from the Space Shuttle, © MCMXC Smithsonian Institution/Lockheed Corporation. Inside Flap Background: Straits of Gibralter by IMAX, © Smithsonian Institution/Lockheed Corporation. Highland Rainforest, © Robert & Linda Mitchell; New Growth & Old Growth Forests, © Charles A. Mauzy; Coastal Marsh, © Tom Blagden, Jr.; Electricity Production, © Erich Hartmann; Transportation, © Japan Broadcast Corporation; Rice Paddies, © Mike Yamashita; Burning Rainforest, IMAX Image, ©Smithsonian Institution/Lockhead Corporation; Tundra, © Dr. Jerry Brown, Global Change Research Background Image is the Atmosphere as seen by an IMAX Camera from the Space Shuttle.