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20
1
2
National Academy of Scienc
ISSUES
National Academy of Engineering
Institute of Medicine
IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
SUMMER 1992
The War Over
Wetlands
SPECIAL SECTION
Industry Views on
Technology Policy,
Corporate R&D, and
Ranking Carcinogens
Sen. Joseph Lieberman on
Reducing CO2 Emissions
ISSUES
IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
The Perils of
Government Secrecy
Time to Rethink Nuclear
Waste Storage
KEVIN FINNERAN
$9.00
Editor
2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20418
202/334-3305
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Publisher for the National Academy of Sciences,
National Academy of Engineering, Institute of Medicine,
and National Research Council
New for Fall
COMPUTING THE FUTURE
SCIENCE
THE SOCIAL IMPACT OF AIDS
A Broader Agenda for
ISBN 0-309-04628-9; 1992,
Computer Science and
Engineering
AT THE FRONTIER
approximately 320 pages,
index, hardbound with jacket,
ISBN 0-309-04740-4; 1992,
$34.95 estimated
288 pages,
The nation's
November
index, paperbound,
top scientists
report on
$24.95
research at the
August
cutting edge
New in Paper
IN THE MIND'S EYE
Enhancing Human
DOLPHINS AND THE TUNA
Performance
INDUSTRY
ISBN 0-309-04741-1; 1992,
ISBN 0-309-04735-8; 1992,
NATIONAL
304 pages, index, paperbound,
ACADEMY
OF SCIENCES
192 pages,
$19.95
index, paperbound,
October
$22.95
SCIENCE AT THE FRONTIER
July
ISBN 0-309-04592-4; 1992,
approximately 275 pages,
index, hardbound with jacket,
$22.95 estimated
IN THE
September
NUTRITION DURING
MIND'S EYE
PREGNANCY AND LACTATION
ENHANCING HU MAN PERFORMANCE
An Implementation Guide
ISBN 0-309-04738-2; 1992,
144 pages,
index, paperbound,
$12.95
August
VIOLENCE
ISBN 0-309-04594-0; 1992,
approximately 500 pages,
index, hardbound with jacket,
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
$39.95 estimated
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
November
Leading the Nation in Science,
Technology, and Health
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20418 1-800-624-6242
VOLUME VIII NUMBER 4
SUMMER 1992
ISSUES
IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
National Academy of Sciences
National Academy of Engineering
Institute of Medicine
5
Forum
More support for small manufacturers; Sustainable business
development; Changing the defense industry; Improving our health care;
On the beach; Improved and new fuels; Do we need nuclear missiles?;
Protecting biodiversity; Investigating misconduct.
25
Perspectives
Senator Joseph Lieberman on a market-based approach to reducing
carbon dioxide emissions.
Don E. Kash and F. Karl Willenbrock on restructuring engineering
education to meet the changing needs of industry.
35
Sara Nicholas
The War Over Wetlands
Candidate George Bush promised "no net loss," but he has not taken
the steps necessary to preserve these critical ecosystems.
42
James Flynn
Time to Rethink Nuclear Waste Storage
Roger Kasperson
Government efforts to dictate where and how to site a permanent
Howard Kunreuther
repository have failed. Let's give the public a say.
Paul Slovic
2
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
ISSUES IN FOCUS: GETTING DOWN TO BUSINESS
52
Daniel F. Burton, Jr.
A New Model for U.S. Innovation
Listing critical technologies is easy. The difficult task is to stimulate
progress throughout industry.
60
Lawrence H. Linden
The Business of Technology
As the nature of industrial competition changes, so must the role of the
chief technology officer.
70
Robert J. Moolenaar
Overhauling Carcinogen Classification
Current procedures do not provide regulators or the public with the
information they need to understand and manage risk.
76
Bruce Stokes
Struggling for Supremacy
A review of Lester Thurow's Head to Head: The Coming Economic Battle
Among Japan, Europe, and America.
80
Editor's Journal
When industry speaks
81
Steven Aftergood
The Perils of Government Secrecy
Excessive classification of documents is denying the nation access to
useful information about technology, the environment, and even
national policies.
89
Books
Cardinal Choices, by Gregg Herken (reviewed by Herbert York); Teller's
War: The Top-Secret Story Behind the Star Wars Deception, by William
J. Broad (Robert L. Park); Earth in the Balance: Ecology and the Human
Spirit, by Senator Al Gore (Kathleen Courrier); The Covenant of the
Wild: Why Animals Chose Domestication, by Stephen Budiansky (Niles
Eldredge); The Control of the Middle East Arms Race, by Geoffrey Kemp
(Gerald M. Steinberg).
106
Index
Cover: Tupelo trees in Bayou Long, Atchafalaya Swamp, Louisiana.
(Photo by Lewis H. Ellsworth)
SUMMER 1992
3
VOLUME VIII NUMBER 4
SUMMER 1992
ISSUES
IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
FRANK PRESS, president
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY is published to inform public opinion and to raise
National Academy of Sciences
the quality of private and public decisionmaking by providing a forum for discussion and debate.
Accordingly, the pages of ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY are open to all
ROBERT M. WHITE, president
responsible points of view, and the material published here reflects only the views of the authors,
National Academy of Engineering
not the policies of any institution.
KENNETH I. SHINE, president
Institute of Medicine
The National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of
Medicine gratefully acknowledge the support of the University of Texas as a sponsor of ISSUES
PHILIP M. SMITH, executive officer
IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY.
KEVIN FINNERAN
Advisory Board
editor
LEWIS BRANSCOMB, chairman
BILL HENDRICKSON
RICHARD C. ATKINSON
ROBERT S. McNAMARA
senior editor
WILLIAM H. DANFORTH
KARL S. PISTER
ROBERT C. FORNEY
JAMES BRIAN QUINN
CARA J. TATE
DONALD S. FREDRICKSON
JOHN S. REED
associate editor
CHARLES E. HESS
DAVID E. ROGERS
PAMELA REZNICK
LESTER B. LAVE
CHARLES E. YOUNG
designer
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY (ISSN 0748-5492)
TOM BURROUGHS
Published quarterly by the National Academy of Sciences, 2101 Constitution Avenue,
CAROLINE T. C HAUNCEY
Washington, DC 20418. © 1992 by the National Academy of Sciences. Printed in the U.S.A.
MARK A. FISCHETTI
JULIE PHILLIPS
Editorial Correspondence: By mail to the address above, or call (202) 334-3305.
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ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY is indexed in the Readers' Guide to Periodical
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4
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
FORUM
More support for
leverage state extension efforts
nized. Moreover, DOD, which
would do much to address that
should be leading the charge to
small manufacturers
problem and would augment the
revitalize the U.S. manufacturing
Commerce Department's growing
base, continues to ignore it; as a
I enjoyed Philip Shapira's article
efforts in this area.
result, there is no advocate in the
on Japan's Kohsetsushi centers
The second federal program
executive branch with sufficient
("Lessons from Japan: Helping
would provide similar support for
resources to tackle the problem.
Small Manufacturers," Issues,
industry-led Regional Technology
Unless this situation changes,
Spring 1992). In 1990, I visited two
Alliances. Organized around the
manufacturing extension will re-
of these centers, in Kyoto and Ku-
geographic concentrations of firms
main yet another example of an
mamoto, and met with officials in
that exist in nearly all states, such
idea that was invented in the United
the Ministry of International Trade
as machine tools in western Mas-
States but carried out in Japan.
and Industry who oversee the
sachusetts and aerospace in south-
SENATOR JEFF BINGAMAN
Kohsetsushi system. Those visits
ern California, these alliances
Democrat of New Mexico
confirmed my belief in the urgent
would promote supplier networks
need for a comparable decentral-
and other forms of interfirm col-
ized system of support for U.S.
laboration, an increasingly impor-
I agree with Philip Shapira that dis-
manufacturers.
tant feature of competition in high-
seminating technology to small
Toward that end, I have cham-
value markets. The alliances would
manufacturing companies is criti-
pioned two new programs to chan-
also provide shared industrial ser-
cal. I have visited the Kohsetsushi
nel federal support of locally pro-
vices such as testing facilities for
in Nagoya and found it an interest-
vided technology services. The
prototypes and new products, ap-
ing approach. However, there are
first is a national Manufacturing
plied R&D, and export promotion.
other ways to address the prob-
Extension Program, based loosely
A number of sectoral alliances
lem. The U.S. Department of Com-
on the agricultural model (which,
already exist (for example, the Re-
merce has several such programs.
as Shapira points out, inspired the
gional Metalworking Network in
As in Japan, moving up the
Kohsetsushi centers). Under this
southwestern Pennsylvania, the
technological ladder from manual
program, the Department of De-
Technology Coast Manufacturing
operations to computer-integrated
fense (DOD), with coordination
and Engineering Network in Oka-
manufacturing systems can be
from the Department of Commerce,
loosa County, Florida, and Ohio's
risky and difficult for this country's
would provide matching funds for
Thomas Edison Centers), but fed-
more than 65,000 small and mid-
existing (mostly state) programs to
eral funds are necessary to make
sized (20 to 500 employees) man-
modernize small and medium-
such efforts a common feature of
ufacturers of durable goods. The
sized manufacturing firms. The
the U.S. industrial landscape.
Department of Commerce's Manu-
states operate a variety of extension
Both of these programs were
facturing Technology Centers
programs to address the technology
authorized at the $50-million level
(MTCs) program, managed by the
and training needs of smaller man-
in last year's National Defense
National Institute of Standards and
ufacturers, ranging from in-factory
Authorization Act, but the appro-
Technology (NIST), was created
assistance to "teaching factories,"
priations committees failed to pro-
by Congress in 1988 to help those
but these programs lack sufficient
vide the funds. Sadly, such programs
manufacturers become more com-
scale and funding stability. Small
face an uphill political battle. They
petitive. The mechanism set out in
manufacturing firms, many of
lack the "sex appeal" of cutting-
the authorizing legislation is a net-
which supply military as well as
edge technology programs such as
work of centers, each serving firms
commercial customers, are the
the supercomputing network. And
"clustered" in different states and
weakest link in our defense tech-
the smaller firms that would pri-
regions across the United States.
nology base. A DOD program to
marily benefit are poorly orga-
Federal funds, matched by state
SUMMER 1992
5
and local funds, are provided for up
making the fruits of federal science
Commerce is also working
to six years. Selection is competi-
and technology more accessible to
with other agencies that have
tive and based on merit.
U.S. industry.
mutual interests. The Department
Three MTCs were established
The Shared Flexible Computer
of Agriculture is concerned about
in 1989-in Ohio, New York, and
Integrated Manufacturing Teach-
improving the economies of rural
South Carolina; two more added in
ing Factories are a promising ap-
areas and the role that manufactur-
1991-in Kansas and Michigan;
proach to diffusing advanced auto-
ing can play in them. We have
and two more will be added this
mation techniques. Funded mostly
signed a Memorandum of Under-
year. During the first two and a half
by private and state sources, these
standing to cooperate in helping
years of operation, the first three
centers are organized around the
rural manufacturing companies.
MTCs reported dealing with more
concept of a central manufacturing
Similarly, we are helping the De-
than 6,000 firms.
facility. Here companies can lease
partment of Defense find ways to
Our experience with the MTC
time on flexible manufacturing
helpsmall companies upgrade their
program has led to the realization
systems. Although we do not fund
capabilities for making military
that the United States already has
the centers, we developed and
and civilian products.
rich resources that can be put to
promoted the idea and serve as their
Although there is certainly
work for industrial competitive-
champion. Fifteen centers are now
room to do more, the U.S. response
ness. In networking the existing
in operation, and fifteen more are in
to the problem has been strong,
MTCs, it has become clear that the
various stages of planning.
though different from Japan's. I
resources of the educational system
There are three basic types of
believe that one of this country's
(primarily junior colleges and re-
assistance that small manufactur-
strengths is its ability of develop
search universities), state and local
ing companies need:
multiple approaches to meet local
business-assistance groups, and
General education, which
needs. One of the most exciting
others must be linked into regional
can be provided with normal
developments of the past several
and national networks that can be
education facilities such as class-
years in the area of technology
used by small and mid-sized manu-
rooms and teaching aids. This is
transfer has been the appearance of
facturers. Two other Commerce De-
being provided by hundreds of
an array of imaginative, aggressive
partment programs carry out com-
community and technical colleges
programs sponsored by federal,
plementary functions that can be
throughout the country.
state, and local governments.
important elements of such a net-
Consultation, which is site-
ROBERT M. WHITE
work: the State Technology Ex-
specific and requires experts to
Under Secretary for Technology
tension Program and the Shared
visit a company's plant.
U.S. Department of Commerce
Flexible Computer Integrated
Capital. Manufacturing is
Washington, D.C.
Manufacturing Teaching Factories.
capital-intensive and requires in-
The State Technology Exten-
vestment in equipment, controls,
sion Program has allowed us to
software, and other tools of pro-
Philip Shapira provides a thorough
give small grants to the states for
duction.
review of the programs available
projects that either demonstrate
There are many organizations
in Japan to assist the small manu-
cooperative programs to increase
of all three types that help small
facturing community. It is evident
the use of government-developed
companies, and many of them have
that, for many years, the Japanese
technology or take advantage of
banded into networks to find ways
have valued the economic con-
services and information available
to improve their services. In May,
tribution of the manufacturing sec-
from NIST and its regional MTCs.
we jointly sponsored a conference
tor in much greater proportion to
We see these grants as an experi-
with the National Association of
their size than has the United
ment in technology transfer. Each
Manufacturers and Lehigh Univer-
States. The lessons of Shapira's ar-
of the 17 grants awarded in 1990
sity to share the experiences of or-
ticle are clear and run counter to
and 1992 was selected for its in-
ganizations that use such networks
conventional U.S. wisdom:
novative approach to our goal:
to provide services.
Technical assistance is ser-
6
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
FORUM
LESSONS
"An expert audit of
FROM
vice-oriented, not research-based.
BOSTON'S
Silicon Valley East."
-Kirkus Reviews
Small and distributed sup-
HIGH-TECH
port is more effective than large and
COMMUNITY
"Show[s] that the Massachusetts
centralized support.
Program stability generates
OUTE
Miracle of the 1980s [was] the latest
fruit of a long-standing collaboration
trust and confidence, not com-
among business, government and
placency.
128
academe."
Our culture is so enamored of
-Robert Reich, Harvard University
$25.00
research and development that we
SUSAN ROSEGRANT
have forgotten that true "value
DAVID LAMPE
THE
added" is generated by efficient
PILL.
production, not copious creation.
Whereas we have disdained the
"The very best of
PYGMY
hands-on approach and the design
scientific autobiography
CHIMPS.
technique that begins by studying
Read this book.
AND
...
the competitor's product, the glob-
-Stephen Jay Gould
DEGAS
al community has realized that
HORSE
reinventing the wheel has no last-
"A wonderful book Not since
Primo Levi's incomparable memoir
ing value in the marketplace. This
The Periodic Table has a chemist so
is why it is both insightful and sadly
successfully revealed himself in
humorous when Shapira states that
elegant prose."
"the most serious criticism of the
-Chemical & Engineering News
$25.00
[Japanese manufacturing support]
CARL DJERASSI
centers is that they are not ex-
perimental enough and that their
research quality rarely is leading-
Dismantling
"The right book at the
edge." To those knowledgeable
THE COLD WAR
right time."
about manufacturing, it is not a
-Senator Paul David Wellstone
criticism but a compliment that the
centers are applying proven tech-
ECONOMY
"Persuasive accurately convey[s]
the opportunities for growth when
nology rather than developing un-
the economy learns to live without
tested approaches.
Big Daddy Defense."
Distributing small offices near
-Business Week
the customer encourages greater
$25.00
interaction and establishment of
Ann Markusen
relationships. The ability to solve
Joel Yudken
production problems lies within the
experience of individual human
"An invaluable chronicle of
ECOCIDE
beings, not with bigger data bases
the environmental damage
or faster information retrieval. In
wrought by a system that
IN THE USSR
successful technology transfer, the
treated natural resources as
people behind the technology are of
inexhaustible." "-Nature
Health and
greater importance than patents
Nature
and documentation, for these
"Shows how Lenin and his succes-
Under Siege
material representations are static
sors systematically poisoned the air,
whereas the human component is
water, soil and people of the U.S.S.R.
in the name of progress."
MURRAY FESHBACH and
the dynamic element that results in
-W. BRUCE LINCOLN, Chicago Tribune
ALFRED FRIENDLY. JR.
continuously improved products.
$24.00
BasicBooks
SUMMER 1992
Toll-free with credit card 1-800-331-3761
A Division of HarperCollinsPublishers
Available in Canada from HarperCollinsCanadaLtd
Stability is also a key to the ul-
a need for the small-firm technical
failed; belatedly, MITI now recog-
timate success of such a program. A
support that is provided in part by
nizes that the country's small-firm
notable phenomenon has devel-
the Kohsetsushi. It is undeniably
base, which contributes much more
oped in recent years in the United
true that as firms such as Toyota or
manufacturing value-added than
States, wherein large programs be-
Toshiba seek higher-quality, more
that of the United States, is a major
come focused on survival rather
complicated parts from their sup-
source of technical dynamism and
than on mission. When reasonable
pliers, vendors within their supply
flexibility in the economy. The
stability is not inherent in the foun-
pyramids are compelled to increase
creation of institutions to support
dations of an organization, the
their technical skills.
smaller firms, however, was the
"kingdom-building" syndrome en-
At the same time, however,
result of decades of political strug-
sues, and the organization con-
Japanese suppliers themselves
gle, not just Japanese foresight.
centrates on perpetuating its own
have sought unique process or
Similarly, it is possible to over-
existence instead of providing ser-
product technologies in order to
state the importance of the Kohset-
vice to the customer. When this
diversify and reduce their depend-
sushi. The remarkable contribution
occurs, the real value of the mission
ence on traditional customers or
of small Japanese firms to the coun-
is lost.
"parent" firms. Viewed from the
try's economy is built on several
I commend Shapira for his
top, Japanese supply networks may
foundations, including the creation
commitment to understanding and
still look like pyramids. But from
of specialized banking institutions
recommending manufacturing as-
the bottom, the nation's suppliers
that earmark loans to smaller man-
sistance approaches that have
have developed remarkably com-
ufacturers; the ability of smaller
merit. I deeply hope that our society
plex relationships with competing
Japanese firms to organize into
recognizes that the health of the na-
or completely independent manu-
producer associations to negotiate
tional economy is based on the
facturing groups that are better
jointly with larger firms and obtain
ability to add value through manu-
described as webs. In the process,
long-term commitments to their
facturing and agriculture and that
many have become the sole sources
firms and regions; the use of re-
the service and information sectors
for technologies that larger firms
gional and industrial networks, in-
that we have so strongly advocated
can no longer reproduce. This de-
cluding facilities like the Kohset-
can only thrive in the long term in
sire to achieve independence and
sushi, to diffuse knowledge and
an economy with a strong manu-
specialized niches in the economy
foster business opportunities
facturing base.
has driven the improvement of
among smaller producers; and
H. LEE MARTIN
small firms' technologies as much
larger firms that are now reliant on
President
as have top-down pressures from
smaller producers for specialized
TeleRobotics International, Inc.
Japan's largest companies.
products that they can no longer
Knoxville, Tennessee
Shapira's article could also be
make, leading to stable sourcing
read to imply that the development
and mutual support relationships
of the Kohsetsushi-if not other
rather than the cut-and-run pro-
In calling attention to the impor-
small-firm support mechanisms-
curement policies typical in the
tance of smaller manufacturers and
was the product of enlightened
United States.
suppliers in the modern economy,
planning by the Ministry of Inter-
Shapira correctly observes that
Philip Shapira focuses on an over-
national Trade and Industry (MITI)
many smaller firms have benefited
looked part of U.S. technology
and the central government. In fact,
from the Kohsetsushi, but these
policy that must be rectified. A few
the Japanese national bureaucracy
technical centers are only one of
nuances in the article bear addition-
has been quite hostile to smaller
several means by which smaller
al comment.
firms. For years, it actively sought
Japanese producers can upgrade
First, the article emphasizes
to consolidate them into bigger
their skills. It would therefore be a
that top-down pressures imposed by
companies to emulate the scale of
mistake to think that simply foster-
large firms at the apex of the Jap-
U.S. companies. Fortunately for
ing technical centers would lead
anese keiretsu "pyramids" generate
Japan, that consolidation effort
smaller U.S. manufacturers to
8
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
FORUM
make significant improvements in
centers do in Japan. Regrettably,
sities. They are catalysts and bro-
their own capabilities. The Jap-
MMS was subject to politics, and
kers in diffusing management, mar-
anese example illustrates that
when a Republican governor took
keting, technology, organizational,
smaller producers are essential
power in 1990, he abolished it.
and industrial know-how.
players in a nation's economy and
Fortunately, the National In-
Kohsetsushi and Shoko Shi-
that sustaining them takes a sub-
stitute for Science and Technology
dosho together are crucial in main-
stantial local, regional, and national
(NIST) now exists, and Michigan
taining the competitiveness of
commitment. Building U.S. in-
has a NIST center in Ann Arbor.
Japan's small and medium-sized
stitutions like the Kohsetsushi
NIST has absorbed most MMS
manufacturing firms. If similar
is only one of several tasks we face
functions and has expanded tech-
public services were implemented
if we are to enhance the flexible
nology deployment services through-
in the United States, the modern-
small-firm component of our na-
out the nation. Shapira cites other
ization of the U.S. industrial base
tional industrial base.
federal centers that have been es-
would no doubt be speeded up as
DAVID FRIEDMAN
tablished through the efforts of
Shapira suggests.
Research Fellow, MIT-Japan Program
concerned people in many states.
KUNIKO FUJITA
Counsel, Tuttle & Taylor, Los Angeles,
These examples are tiny, however,
Department of Sociology
California
compared with the size of Japan's
Michigan State University
effort.
East Lansing, Michigan
I would like to add one point to
Philip Shapira makes the important
Shapira's argument. There exists a
point that modernization of small
Japanese counterpart to Kohset-
and mid-sized manufacturing firms
sushi in the management, informa-
Sustainable business
is the key to U.S. industrial com-
tion, and finance fields. It is called
development
petitiveness and that it can be ac-
"Shoko Shidosho" (Shoko meaning
complished by providing the kinds
commerce and industry and Shi-
I share E. S. Woolard, Jr.'s convic-
of public services that Japan's Koh-
dosho meaning management guid-
tion, expressed in "An Industry Ap-
setsushi centers offer.
ance center). Under the Agency of
proach to Sustainable Develop-
In the 1980s, the federal
Small and Medium-Sized En-
ment" (Issues, Spring 1992), that
government pursued a different
terprises (ASME, part of the Min-
only by injecting business activity
course from that of state govern-
istry of International Trade and In-
with a sustainable development
ments in responding to declining
dustry), regional governments have
ethos can industry continue to
U.S. industrial competitiveness. It
Management Guidance Centers
"reward investors, create jobs, and
misunderstood the sources of glob-
that provide information about
improve living standards in
al economic change and wrongly
management practices and financ-
societies around the world." As
focused on further tax cuts for
ing opportunities to small manu-
chairman and chief executive of-
wealthy corporations and on in-
facturing firms and shops. Manage-
ficer of one of the world's largest
dustrial and environmental dereg-
ment Guidance Centers' staff have
industrial corporations, Woolard
ulation. Many states emphasized
passed a national credentialing ex-
can provide leadership in the drive
instead the modernization of tech-
amination to become public man-
toward environmentally sus-
nology and the work force. No-
agement or technical consultants.
tainable business practices that is
where was the need more urgent
The role of the Shoko Shidosho
highly valuable to those of us in the
than in Michigan, where modern-
in Japan's modernization effort is
environmental community who are
ization of small and mid-sized
every bit as important as that of the
convinced that the concept of sus-
manufacturing firms lagged behind
Kohsetsushi. They operate in net-
tainable development will not be-
the Big Three auto companies. The
works of small firms, cooperatives,
come reality without the active in-
state established Michigan Mod-
ward officials, ASME officials,
volvement of industry.
ernization Services (MMS), which
trade associations, chambers of com-
In particular, Woolard's com-
began to do what the Kohsetsushi
merce and industry, and univer-
mitment to external communica-
SUMMER 1992
9
tion and community awareness will
term survival of any business
lead to a better-informed public
activity.
Changing the
and a greater degree of public in-
defense industry
JAY D. HAIR
clusion in business decisions that
President and Chief Executive Officer
affect the environmental and eco-
National Wildlife Federation
Jacques S. Gansler's "Restructur-
nomic health of this and future
Washington, D.C.
ing the Defense Industrial Base"
generations.
(Issues, Spring 1992) is perhaps the
Moreover, the article's em-
best article yet written on this im-
phasis on waste minimization and
I applaud E.S. Woolard, Jr., for ad-
portant and timely subject. A major
the efficient use of all resources,
vocating the Business Charter for
portion of the piece concerns the
especially nonrenewable energy
Sustainable Development and
importance of integrating defense
supplies, lays out the first step in
hope it can become the springboard
with civilian industry. I would like
achieving corporate advantage
to reshape energy policy. The
to elaborate on one particular prob-
through sustainable behavior.
United States and other industrial
lem that is inhibiting this integra-
Product stewardship, highlighted
nations lack credibility in urging
tion and offer a specific recommen-
as a key ingredient of sustainable
sustainable development in devel-
dation for dealing with it.
business practice, may also be a
oping countries because, for one
The majority of systems and
source of competitive advantage,
reason, our own performance in en-
components procured by the De-
as plastic recycling programs such
ergy conservation is so bad. Burn-
partment of Defense (DOD) have a
as those initiated by Du Pont have
ing of fossil fuels causes wide-
commercial equivalent and there-
proven. Product design and mar-
spread environmental problems,
fore are potentially "dual-use."
keting in developing countries, as
including air pollution, acid rain,
However, for this potential to be
Woolard suggests, must protect and
and global climate change. The
realized, the Pentagon must take
preserve the environment while
United States and other industrial
vigorous action to break down the
contributing to tangible improve-
nations use three-fourths of the
security barrier, the specification
ment in living standards. This also
fossil fuels worldwide.
barrier, and the procurement bar-
represents significant business op-
We ask developing countries to
rier. They were created over the
portunities for companies that are
make faster progress in controlling
past few decades for quite valid
committed to sustainable business
deforestation; they tell us they will
reasons but have become counter-
activities.
when we make faster progress in
productive, preventing DOD from
Clearly, economic develop-
energy conservation. The United
making full use of increasingly im-
ment and environmental sustain-
States, like some other industrial
portant commercial technology. A
ability can, and must, work to-
nations, has not made that commit-
crucially important step that DOD
gether. The National Wildlife
ment. Why?
can take to overcome these barriers
Federation's Corporate Conserva-
As a leading international in-
is to initiate action to create a single
tion Council, of which Du Pont is a
dustrialist, Woolard is in a unique
set of specifications that would be
member, convened a conference in
position to advance the Business
used in both military and industrial
January 1992 that focused on this
Charter for Sustainable Develop-
applications.
tenet, with the added accent that
ment. Greater political stability,
Specifically, I recommend that
long-term competitive advantages
wise resource use, employment
DOD initiate a joint program with
accrue as a result of sustainable
and investment opportunities, and
the American National Standards
business practices. The working
expanded trade between nations
Institute to develop such specifica-
principles of sustainable behavior
could result from its adoption.
tions, which would eventually sup-
that were developed for that con-
plant military specifications. This
GERALD F. VAUGHN
ference emphasize that natural
Extension Specialist, Resource
move could lead to better military
resource security, ecosystem se-
Economics and Policy
equipment at lower cost, which is a
curity, and socioeconomic security
College of Agricultural Sciences
good enough reason for doing it.
are necessary to ensure the long-
University of Delaware
However, it will also be indispen-
10
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
FORUM
sable if we ever have to reconsti-
however, DOD has created its own
taking many of the other actions
tute our military capability. To do
standards organization, which is
called for by Gansler.
so, we would have to use our com-
quite competent but has developed
WILLIAM J. PERRY
mercial, not defense, industrial
a unique set of military specifica-
Chairman, Technology Strategies and
base, because the defense base rep-
tions that now stand in the way of
Alliances, Menlo Park, California
resents only a small fraction of the
DOD making full use of the for-
Professor, Engineering-Economic
nation's industrial capability. It is
midable industrial base of the Unit-
Systems Department, Stanford
ed States. They also prevent our
University
not an adequate foundation on
which to build.
commercial companies from get-
It is relevant to this recom-
ting the full benefit of defense
mendation to point out that the
technology.
Jacques S. Gansler's points are
predecessor of the American Na-
If this one problem could be
well taken. The defense sector
tional Standards Institute was es-
solved, it would have a synergistic
should make use of the commercial
tablished at the beginning of the
effect on many others. The very
sector as much as possible, though
first World War to create stand-
act of creating common standards
action is required of the commer-
ards as a part of the effort to mob-
would be an enormous catalyst in
cial sector as well. A few notes on
ilize the industrial base for the war
bringing together the people in
this partnership, based on cases I
effort. In the succeeding years,
DOD and industry who are key to
have lived with over the years:
Request for Consultants to Serve as
NIH/ADAMHA Peer Reviewers
The National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the Alcohol, Drug Abuse, and Mental Health Adminis-
tration (ADAMHA) are in the process of establishing a new consultant file of peer reviewers. These
reviewers will be selected from a national pool of scientists who are engaged in basic or applied
research. Data from qualified respondents will be entered a new computerized NIH/ADAMHA
database. This unique database will be used as one source from which candidates for membership
on NIH/ADAMHA committees and for other advisory activities are drawn. Consultant scientists act
in an advisory capacity to assist NIH/ADAMHA in the evaluation of research projects.
All qualified scientists are requested to participate.
Qualified women and minority scientists are encouraged to apply.
All scientists who are interested in participating should respond by letter requesting a copy of the
NIH/ADAMHA Consultant File Information Form. Since the new file will be established based soley
on positive responses, your response is needed even if you are already a consultant or are a member
of a Reviewer's Reserve. This file is independent of other consultant files. Your request should be
sent to:
NIH/ADAMHA Consultant File
7101 Wisconsin Avenue, Suite 1125, Box 34
Bethesda, MD 20814
SUMMER 1992
11
The Department of Defense
of proprietary rights, perhaps
"too-hard" question to put the is-
(DOD) will necessarily be a small-
protected by DOD security, might
sues in perspective.
volume, special-needs customer,
help.
EBERHARDT RECHTIN
and such customers are generally
DOD has developed product,
President Emeritus, The Aerospace
not profitable compared to large-
process, and procurement stand-
Corporation, Los Angeles, California
volume ones. The resulting pre-
ards over many years. However,
Professor of Engineering, University of
mium prices and "extras" will be
companies in the commercial sec-
Southern California, Los Angeles
hard for DOD to justify to Con-
tor have no incentive to follow
gress. And DOD will have little
DOD specifications because their
leverage to keep a production line
major commercial customers don't
I would like to expand on Jacques
going on a product that has become
use them. Instead, they dread (for
S. Gansler's excellent recommen-
commercially obsolete. Amassing
good reasons) government inter-
dations for "Restructuring the
decade-length inventories of soon-
ference and political issues spilling
Defense Industrial Base" by point-
to-be obsolete commercial parts is
over into their operations. They
ing out that the level of resources
hardly a practical solution. Some
have given, are giving, and will
committed to the entire U.S. in-
form of backward-compatible
continue to give up the govern-
dustrial base (not just the defense
form, fit, and function requirement
ment business (especially if small)
industry) is inadequate and should
for commercial-sector designers
rather than permit government in-
be increased. The United States can
might help.
trusion. Frankly, I have no easy
regain preeminence in the vital
The greatest single boon to
solutions here.
manufacturing arena by mastering
DOD would be for the commercial
There is good will on both
the capabilities needed for "lean"
sector to produce such high-quality
sides; it is just that the incentives
and "agile" processes that respond
products that DOD's standards of
and motivations are different, so
rapidly to changing demands for
performance and quality can be
that the two systems don't match
high-quality, highly customized
met by supplier certification rather
easily. Some years ago, David
products and services.
than by product screening and tests.
Packard sponsored a joint meeting
Agencies such as DOD,
Components that are adequate for
between Hewlett Packard and
teamed with industry, academe,
small systems are simply not good
Defense Department officials on
and labor, can contribute sig-
enough for DOD's large complex
this problem, with the reported
nificantly to the development of:
ones: DOD can't afford the costs
result that both parties agreed that
Flexible systems that can
when a single component wipes
the other's modus operandi was
respond in hours or days rather than
out an aircraft or spacecraft, much
sensible, though different. Neither
weeks or months to changing cus-
less an operation. The widespread
could suggest major changes in the
tomized demands;
use by the commercial sector of
practices of the other under the con-
Intelligent processes that op-
strategies such as total quality man-
straints that each had to observe.
timize outputs by using sophisti-
agement should help.
Neither party could legitimately
cated sensors and closed-loop feed-
DOD has legitimate security
abandon its own imperatives. The
back controls;
needs, as Gansler notes, but so do
commercial sector's first impera-
Environmentally benign
commercial firms, for competitive
tive was continued profit-or it
processes that minimize negative
reasons. These needs are different
couldn't exist. The defense sector's
impacts on the environment; and
and often conflicting; for example,
was first-rate equipment and sup-
Microfabrication techniques
a commercial supplier may refuse
port for the combat troops-or it
to permit low-cost production of
to state the materials and processes
couldn't be justified.
miniaturized electronic and other
used to make a spacecraft com-
In brief, both sectors must
devices.
ponent, whereas DOD may not be
change if we are to achieve effec-
Contributing technology-based
able, for security reasons, to tell
tive restructuring for a new era in
methodologies would include:
the supplier how the component
national security. Icommend Gans-
Concurrent engineering to
will be used. Some modification
ler for once again bringing up a
team different talents so that
12
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
FORUM
product and process optimization
created early in this century as a
care expenditures as they earn of
occur simultaneously;
benefit of employment (spurred by
national income. In contrast, the
Continuous quality improve-
labor unions and federal wage
poor in the United States pay dis-
ment so that defect rates are mea-
controls) and as a way for health
proportionately more health costs
sured per million tasks and, in the
care providers to be assured of
than their share of income, by a
future, per billion tasks, rather than
remuneration.
factor of two.
per hundred tasks;
It is not hard to understand why
The question of who will pay
Strategic global monitoring
our system of coverage has de-
will become the political fulcrum
to identify emerging competitive
generated to a shift-the-risk game
of the health care reform debate as
threats and/or international team-
of hot potato. Insurers are not risk
it gets more serious. We must not
ing opportunities; and
takers, they are risk poolers, so they
lose sight of the opportunity that
Technology deployment stim-
have honed a very sophisticated
reform provides for improving the
uli to hasten elimination of current
technology for identifying and
fairness of health care financing in
costly processes and expedite the
minimizing the risk they cover.
the United States.
use of radically improved manu-
Even insurers that understand the
JOEL C. CANTOR
facturing methods.
socially undesirable nature of this
Senior Program Officer
Hopefully such promising
game feel they must adopt the
The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
prospects will win the support of
latest risk-avoidance techniques in
Princeton, New Jersey
appropriate leaders in our govern-
order to survive. As a result of these
ment and the enthusiastic coopera-
market practices as well as changes
tion of their counterparts in in-
in the general economy and un-
Janet E. O'Keeffe's catalog of
dustry, academe, and labor.
abated medical inflation, nearly
what's wrong with our health in-
one million Americans are added
surance system is comprehensive
THOMAS J. MURRIN
Dean, A. J. Palumbo School of Business
to the ranks of the uninsured each
and on target. The member hospi-
Administration
year.
tals of the American Hospital As-
Duquesne University
We need to consider not only
sociation (AHA) have been strug-
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
how each health care reform option
gling with these issues for more
would address access and cost, but
than two years. We address them in
also how each would affect who
our proposal for health care reform,
pays. This is not strictly a matter of
which includes universal access, at
Improving our
politics but one of fairness. Financ-
least to basic services, as our fun-
health care
ing of the health care system today
damental principle. We also agree
is moving toward extreme inequity.
with O'Keeffe that a realistic plan
Janet E. O'Keeffe's "Health Care
The more closely insurance pre-
for cost containment is essential to
Financing: How Much Reform Is
miums reflect the medical condi-
successful reform-as well as be-
Needed?" (Issues, Spring 1992)
tion of each person, the greater the
ing the element most reform pro-
aptly describes the progression of
financial burden on the poor and
posals lack.
the health insurance industry in the
sick. A variety of mechanisms are
Congress is currently awash in
United States from its early days of
available to distribute the cost of
proposals calling for expanded ac-
community rating and wide avail-
medical care equitably, and the ex-
cess and cost containment. Most,
ability to the current spiral of risk
perience of virtually every other
however, would simply issue cards
avoidance and unavailability. In
western nation has demonstrated
providing access to the current un-
fact, private health insurance has
that fairness in financing is as
coordinated delivery system, a
never been concerned with the two
achievable as universal access and
course of action that is certain to
issues O'Keeffe cites as underlying
cost containment. In the Nether-
have disappointing results because
the national health care reform
lands, for instance, the poorest 20
it ignores the root causes of esca-
debate today: cost inflation and ac-
percent of the population pays the
lating costs-fragmentation, con-
cess barriers. Health insurance was
same proportion of national health
flicting incentives, and wasteful
SUMMER 1992
13
competition. To achieve the real
ernment coverage for those who are
Wyoming. There is a good chance
reform that O'Keeffe advocates,
not. It will reduce the rate of health
for passage of similar legislation
sweeping changes must be made in
care cost increases. Over time, ex-
this year in more than fifteen ad-
the way health care is delivered.
cess capacity and duplication of
ditional states.
The AHA's evolving reform
services and technology will be
In 1988, HIAA, which repre-
plan puts patients at the center of a
eliminated. Most important of all, it
sents commercial health insurance
restructured health care delivery
creates a health care system more
companies that insure nearly 95
system. It makes sure that every
responsive to the needs of patients.
million Americans, began working
American will have health in-
RICHARD J. POLLACK
to construct a small-employer re-
surance for a basic set of services
Executive Vice President
form proposal that would help
from preventive care through long-
American Hospital Association
solve the U.S. health care financing
term care. To encourage private
Washington, D.C.
crisis. HIAA finalized this proposal
health insurers to manage rather
in 1991. Since then, industry repre-
than avoid risk, preexisting-condi-
sentatives have presented it to
tions clauses and similar under-
Nationalized health insurance is
members of Congress, state legis-
writing practices would be abol-
clearly high on Janet E. O'Keeffe's
lators, and administration, gover-
ished. Those not receiving health
agenda, but she fails to mention its
nors, and consumer groups across
insurance through an employer or
many trade-offs, including budget-
the country.
not having an individual policy
busting tax increases, strict health
The proposal guarantees con-
would be insured through a public
care rationing, and long waiting
tinuity of coverage for businesses
program that would replace Medi-
lines for even ordinary surgical
that change insurers, for employees
care and Medicaid. This public
procedures. Under such a system,
who change jobs, and for individ-
program would also provide cata-
the nation's entire health care
uals who develop health problems.
strophic coverage for everyone,
budget would be controlled by a
Premium pricing limitations are
regardless of how they get their
select few in Washington, while
also included. The principles that
basic health insurance.
innovation and technological ad-
underpin these reforms have been
Our plan would keep costs
vancement in health care would
endorsed by the National Associa-
under control through a system of
wither for lack of appropriate in-
tion of Insurance Commissioners,
community care networks that
centives. Lowest-common-denom-
and small-employer reform pro-
would link together hospitals,
inator medicine may look good on
posals passed by states in recent
physicians, and other health care
paper to O'Keeffe, but it isn't what
months incorporate many, if not
providers. For providing all ser-
Americans want.
most, of the tenets of HIAA's
vices needed by patients, a network
O'Keeffe contends that reform
package.
would receive a set fee per year for
of the small-employer health in-
If HIAA's small-group reforms
each patient enrolled. Knowing
surance market will have no sig-
were passed in all states, and if
that payments flowing into the net-
nificant effect on the overall
passage were accompanied by
work are fixed, providers would
problem of access to affordable
the creation of high-risk pools
have a financial incentive to coor-
insurance. We at the Health In-
(backed by not-for-profit reinsur-
dinate their services, reduce un-
surance Association of America
ance mechanisms), many of the
necessary care and duplication of
(HIAA) disagree, and the idea
problems of availability of cover-
services, and emphasize low-cost
is also implicitly refuted by the
age that O'Keeffe refers to would
preventive care.
recent actions of numerous state
virtually disappear. According to
We believe that our plan is
legislatures. Thus far in 1992,
O'Keeffe, "just one 'uninsurable'
meaningful reform that also meets
comprehensive small-employer
person [is] grounds for rejecting
the test of political reality. It
reform packages have passed in
the entire group." This would not
builds on what is familiar: health
Florida, Iowa, Kansas, Maine,
happen if HIAA's reforms were in
insurance through employers for
Minnesota, New Hampshire, Ten-
place. "Some people," she says,
those who are employed and gov-
nessee, Virginia, Wisconsin, and
"cannot obtain coverage at any
14
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
FORUM
price." This situation cannot occur
knows that insurance is already the
picture to make their case. For ex-
in a state with a high-risk pool.
most heavily regulated industry in
ample, they present the recent
O'Keeffe also says that "Some
the country. Finally, O'Keeffe says
Ocean City beach nourishment
insurers utilize postclaims under-
that insurance companies "evade
project as an example of the folly
writing to exclude people who are
payment for covered benefits" by
and high cost of beach nourish-
sick." And "Some insurers will
denying claims for experimental
ment. They do not mention that the
raise the premiums so high [in the
treatments. This is inflammatory
project was damaged by a massive
wake of high claims] that [the
and untrue. If a therapy is covered
storm with wave heights and water
premiums] are impossible to pay,"
by an insurance policy, the insurer
levels exceeding design specifica-
and insurers will "discontinue
reimburses. As a rule, however,
tions. In addition, Maryland offi-
coverage for people who are ill."
insurers exclude experimental
cials estimated that damage to
None of these situations would
therapies because such therapies
Ocean City could have been as
occur if HIAA's reforms were
have not been proven safe and
high as $93 million without the
enacted.
effective.
nourishment. This figure makes
When O'Keeffe flatly obser-
the $12 million cost of the project a
CARL J. SCHRAMM
ves that the United States "treats
President
rather good investment.
health insurance like a commodity
Health Insurance Association of America
The high cost of beach nour-
to be sold in a competitive market,"
Washington, D.C.
ishment has been a recurrent theme
she misses the point: It is medical
of Orrin Pilkey's. Using figures
care itself that is an article of com-
from a 1989 Journal of Coastal Re-
merce in our society. As O'Keeffe
On the beach
search article by Pilkey and T.D.
knows, many forces have been in-
Clayton, one can estimate an an-
flating the cost of medical care (at
In "Save Beaches, Not Buildings"
nual U.S. beach nourishment cost
double-digit rates) for nearly two
(Issues, Spring 1992), Orrin H.
over the past 30 years of about $10
decades: rampant medical fraud
Pilkey and William J. Neal propose
to $15 million per year. This is in-
(which will amount to as much as
a "one-size-fits-all" policy of re-
significant compared to the main-
$100 billion by the mid-1990s, ac-
treat from the coastline that does
tenance costs of infrastructure,
cording to a recent GAO report);
not agree with the conclusions of a
such as roads. Of course, there are
unnecessary medical care (as much
1990 National Research Council
many beaches that need nourish-
as 25 to 40 percent of all medical
study. The NRC considered tech-
ment but have not been nourished.
care provided is unnecessary, ac-
nology and policy issues relating to
For example, Florida is considering
cording to most estimates); defen-
managing coastal erosion and con-
a nourishment program that would
sive medical practices; the pro-
cluded that "a single uniform na-
cost tens of millions of dollars per
liferation of expensive, unproven
tional 'answer' to erosion problems
year. Again, this is a very small per-
technologies; and other factors.
is neither practical nor desirable. In
centage of the yearly maintenance
Under HIAA's small-group plan,
addition, public planners and de-
costs of roads in Florida, and the
costs can be controlled by im-
cision makers should avoid basing
economic viability of Florida is
plementing electronic claims, en-
policies on stereotypes or precon-
heavily dependent on its beaches.
couraging managed care, eliminat-
ceptions as to 'typical' shorelines
The authors' discussion of
ing state-mandated benefits,
and their state of development and
seawalls is also misleading. The
tightening anti-fraud regulations,
governance. Setbacks for new de-
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has
and refining electronic anti-fraud
velopment, relocation of endan-
not built a large number of sea-
systems.
gered structures, beach nourish-
walls, I am not aware that it is
Two final notes. When O'-
ment, and engineered shore
presently building any, and the
Keeffe contends that "extensive
protection structures or doing noth-
Corps did not build the New Jersey
regulation of the insurance indus-
ing may each be appropriate under
seawalls. The authors do not men-
try" is an "essential" component
specific localized conditions."
tion that the most exhaustive re-
of major reform, I wonder if she
The authors paint a misleading
view of seawall interaction with
SUMMER 1992
15
coasts (by N. C. Kraus in a 1988
Orrin H. Pilkey and William J. Neal
sources are not lost from the natur-
special issue of the Journal of
state that coastal armoring adverse-
al system? Shouldn't a program
Coastal Research) concludes that,
ly affects beaches and they reiterate
truly concerned with the wellbeing
except for a few limited situations,
their strategy of gradual retreat
of beaches include an element of
the evidence is that seawalls do not
from the shoreline.
restoring natural processes around
cause active erosion. J. F. Tait and
Fortunately for those with in-
navigational features?
G. B. Griggs also studied the sub-
vestments and other interests along
Yet the article's emphasis
ject, and in a 1990 article in Shore
the shore, this seemingly well-
seems to be on allowing erosion to
and Beach concluded that "The
intentioned article relies on argu-
proceed as rapidly as possible so
majority of field studies indicate
ments based on data from un-
that a case can be made for remov-
that most of the direct effects of
representative areas. To cite the
ing coastal buildings. Carried to its
seawalls on beaches are temporary
Sea Bright, New Jersey, example
logical conclusion, this argument
or seasonal in nature and that
as justification for their proffered
would mean that barrier islands
seawalls do not impede the post-
policy is like analyzing the prob-
would be unoccupied and there
storm recovery process." There are
ability of being hit by a meteorite
would be no roads on them, so that
also situations where seawalls are
by inspecting only the immediate
their beaches would be accessible
critical for public safety. A hur-
area around Meteor Crater in Ari-
only by boat and thus to a limited
ricane killed 6,000 people in Gal-
zona. In terms of erosional stress,
portion of the population.
veston, Texas in 1900. The Corps
Sea Bright is unique along the
The authors do identify a
and the city and county of Galves-
U.S. shoreline.
problem that must be addressed.
ton built a seawall after this dis-
Perhaps the two most serious
The question is one of time scales.
aster, and when a larger hurricane
flaws in the article are the absence
Should we commence a program of
struck Galveston in 1915, only 12
of recommendations for ways to
retreat now, when in many loca-
people were killed.
mitigate human-caused erosion
tions it may be centuries if not
Finally, the authors are in-
and the fact that the article com-
longer before retreat is called for
correct in saying that "the Corps'
pletely overlooks the need to distin-
by natural processes? I maintain
Coastal Engineering Research Cen-
guish between human and geologi-
that if and when retreat is a proper
ter gets the bulk of its funding at
cal time scales.
response, it will be site-specific and
the district level and thus is not
We have found in our research
the need for it will slowly become
removed from the desires of local
in the Department of Coastal and
evident over the years. Nature
property owners and developers."
Oceanographic Engineering at the
should provide the guidance rather
Most of CERC's funding is from
University of Florida that ap-
than a policy based on imperfect
directly appropriated R&D funds,
proximately 80 to 85 percent of
data and subject to the biases of
not from the districts. Engineers
the erosion of Florida's east coast
those crafting its components.
and scientists from CERC and aca-
is related to new channel entrances
ROBERT G. DEAN
demia use these funds to advance
and natural entrances that have
Graduate Research Professor and
understanding of coastal processes,
been deepened, and/or to jetties
Chairman
including the impact of society's
constructed for navigational pur-
Coastal and Oceanographic Engineering
activities on those processes. Local
poses. Past practices of deep-water
Department
property owners, developers, or
disposal of sand dredged for chan-
University of Florida
other special-interest groups are
Gainesville, Florida
nel maintenance have further ex-
not involved in funding CERC.
acerbated the adverse impact. Ac-
cepting that these navigational
JAMES R. HOUSTON
Director, Coastal Engineering Research
features are essential to support
Orrin H. Pilkey and William J. Neal
Center
commerce and recreation, shouldn't
make important observations about
Corps of Engineers
the price of their operation include
the influential role of policy on
Department of the Army
appropriate sand management to
coastal development patterns.
Vicksburg, Mississippi
ensure that high-quality sand re-
Many policies at the federal, state,
16
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FORUM
and local levels have served over
Improved and
in the transportation fuel business.
the years to promote development
They also have an opportunity to
along the water's edge, putting
new fuels
provide fuel diversity and a mea-
public health and safety, tax dol-
sure of national energy security by
lars, and the environment at risk.
In "Clean Air at a Reasonable
considering alternative fuels as a
This year, through reform of the
Price" (Issues, Winter 1991-92),
part of their investment strategy in
National Flood Insurance Program
James W. Kinnear, president and
reformulating gasoline.
(NFIP), Congress has the oppor-
chief executive officer of Texaco,
For example, the price today
tunity to reduce the federal role in
Inc., concludes that the reformula-
of methanol fuel is equivalent to
encouraging hazardous coastal
tion of gasoline will be an expen-
about $1.35 per gallon of gasoline,
development.
sive proposition for oil companies
which is competitive with premium
Congress established the NFIP
and that there are more cost-effec-
gasoline prices. At an added cost
in 1968 to provide otherwise un-
tive means of controlling hydrocar-
of 15 to 20 cents per gallon for re-
obtainable flood insurance and "to
bon emissions from automobiles.
formulated gasoline in 1996, meth-
encourage state and local govern-
Having served as an elected and ap-
anol becomes competitive with
ments to make appropriate land-
pointed official for nearly two
regular gasoline while providing a
use adjustments to constrict the
decades, currently as California's
potential environmental benefit
development of land which is ex-
chief energy official in the struggle
estimated at a 30 to 50 percent
posed to flood damage and mini-
to achieve and maintain health-
reduction in grams of ozone emit-
mize the damage caused by flood
based air quality standards, Istrongly
ted per mile and a 50 percent re-
losses" by guiding new develop-
disagree.
duction in toxic emissions. By the
ment away from flood- and erosion-
Most of the less costly mea-
year 2000, methanol would likely
prone areas. Instead, the availability
sures Kinnear cites have already
have a competitive edge, given the
of federal flood insurance has
been implemented in California.
five- to seven-cent additional cost
provided a financial safety net for
Extensive analyses by state and
per gallon of gasoline for the two
hazardous coastal and riverine
local air quality experts point to an
stages of reformulation required
development.
absolute need to combine the
under federal law.
The National Wildlife Federa-
cleanest fuel options with the best
It appears to me that oil com-
tion, along with over 100 other na-
emission control systems in order
panies could commit now to invest-
tional, regional, state, and local
to maintain progress toward meet-
ments to make California gasoline
conservation and citizen organiza-
ing air quality standards. These
nationally available, given the in-
tions, strongly supports proposed
analyses also include the positive
evitability of the California regula-
reform of the federal flood in-
impact of retiring old, high-emit-
tions. Oil companies will have to
surance program, as passed by the
ting vehicles. Lastly, the strategies
make this gasoline if they want to
U.S. House of Representatives
that have been selected and im-
sell any gasoline in California in
(H.R. 1236) and as introduced in
plemented in California have been
1996. The argument is made more
the U.S. Senate (S. 1650). These
compared to other more draconian
compelling by the fact that other
reforms strengthen the NFIP Fund,
measures and found to be cost-
states have the option to adopt
establish programs for the reduc-
effective.
California gasoline, through pro-
tion of flood losses and for the
Ultimately, the oil industry will
visions included in the 1990 Clean
management of erosion-prone
have to invest capital to make
Air Act Amendments. Can an oil
coastal areas, and recognize and
cleaner fuels in order to achieve
company afford to guess which
promote the protection of natural
emission-reduction goals estab-
states may or may not do so?
floodplain areas.
lished by the Clean Air Act and
I view this approach as an in-
KATHARINE L. DIXON
California regulations. The oil
surance policy, and if it contains a
Coastal Project Organizer
companies have an opportunity to
"rider" to include alternative fuels
National Wildlife Federation
take the lead in establishing the
as part of the business strategy, it
Washington, D.C.
standard for environmental quality
becomes even more attractive. This
SUMMER 1992
17
combined strategy will likely en-
whom we were able to focus intel-
gests, would relax the hair trigger
hance oil company environmental
ligence-gathering efforts for half a
that is perhaps the most disturbing
performance, provide needed fuels
year), counting missiles is hard to
element of the current international
diversity and energy security in the
do. The genie is out of the bottle;
strategic configuration.
United States, and present the U.S.
ballistic missiles abound and are
At the same time, however, it
public with a fresh and responsible
easily acquired and hidden. In addi-
would eliminate two legs (land-
image of oil companies in the
tion, the technology to develop an
and submarine-based missiles) of
1990s. Why not make the invest-
indigenous ballistic missile is
the current triad of strategic forces
ment now?
simple and well known. Very few
and put complete responsibility on
CHARLES R. IMBRECHT
test flights are required and can be
strategic aircraft. And as Drell
Chairman
easily hidden in a nation's "peace-
notes, "Before we could rely on a
California Energy Commission
ful and scientific" space program.
force of strategic nuclear bombers
Sacramento, California
Even America's MX, the most
as a deterrent, we would have to
sophisticated ballistic missile in
make sure that the bomber force
the world, worked flawlessly on
would be able to survive a con-
its first flight. A rogue power, with
flict." He offers one solution: "If
Do we need
relaxed standards of reliability,
there were no long-range missiles,
nuclear missiles?
would need but a few tests to gain
it would be impossible to destroy a
confidence in a terror weapon.
dispersed bomber fleet." But the
In "Abolishing Long-range Nu-
Eliminating long-range nu-
zero-missile goal is hard to reach,
clear Missiles" (Issues, Spring
clear missiles is a goal worthy of
and undefended bombers are very
1992), Sidney D. Drell suggests a
the serious thought Drell confers
vulnerable to residual or hidden
zero-ballistic-missile option for the
upon it. But his analysis neglects
weapons. There are few who would
world's military powers. Unfor-
these realities: Ballistic missiles al-
argue that arms control negotia-
tunately, the reason for "fast fliers"
ready exist, they are easily trans-
tions alone are likely to reduce the
has not yet disappeared.
ferred and hidden, and the technol-
number of residual missiles, let
The threat to our security is
ogy needed to build them is simple.
alone unaccounted-for ones, so close
not the current Russian govern-
Adopting a zero-missile posture
to zero.
ment. It is the detritus left behind by
would thus not only be dangerous
Against reduced missile at-
the collapsed Soviet Union: a vast
and expensive in the face of the
tacks, even modest defenses could
nuclear arsenal, huge military for-
Soviet breakup but would amount
save a significant number of bomb-
ces, and an enormous (though crip-
to unilateral disarmament in the
er bases. Without defenses, only
pled) military-industrial complex.
face of rogue powers. The abolition
alert bombers contribute to deter-
The role of U.S. strategic forces is
of these missiles foundered after
rence, so the planes must be kept in
to deter those who control the Sov-
the Reykjavik summit not because
an advanced state of readiness.
iet legacy until it is gone. It is also to
of differences over the Strategic
(Strictly speaking, the recent U.S.
provide bargaining chips in bring-
Defense Initiative but because, like
move to take bombers off alert ac-
ing that dissolution about, and it
many other good spontaneous
tually decreased crisis stability.)
will be a long time before we can
ideas, it could not withstand sub-
With defenses in place, bombers
believe that every last SS-25, for in-
sequent peer review at home.
could be put into a less threatening
stance, has been counted and turned
THOMAS C. REED
posture. If one feels that crisis
in to the central government.
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
stability still remains key for the
The threat of strategic missile
Quaker Hill Development Corporation
post-Cold-War period, eliminating
proliferation among rogue powers
Healdsburg, California
bombers' vulnerability and reduc-
is also real. Slowing it-stopping
ing their alert rates both argue for
it if possible-is certainly a worth-
some level of defense.
while objective. However, as we
Eliminating all long-range nuclear
Such defenses could be small
learned in Iraq (a specific enemy on
missiles, as Sidney D. Drell sug-
but would have to be capable of
18
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
FORUM
defending bombers against a deter-
available, we could recruit people
technology-based enterprises. We
mined attacker aiming at a single
not needed in the defense in-
now have the opportunity to really
compact objective. If arms control
dustries, employing scientists, en-
earn a peace dividend by a prompt
agreements could significantly
gineers, physicians, and biomedi-
realignment of our national pri-
reduce the number of missiles, that
cal researchers. We also employ
orities toward advanced scientific,
capability should not be beyond
grant and contract managers and
technological, and medical re-
the reach of current technological
could use staff from defense who
search. All benefits, no risks. Let's
developments. Proper mixes of arms
are experienced in program ad-
proceed now.
control agreements and bomber
ministration.
JOHN H. WEISBURGER
defenses could stably support ar-
The budgets of the National
Senior Member and Director Emeritus
bitrarily large reductions in mis-
Institutes of Health (NIH) and Na-
American Health Foundation
siles. They would also eliminate
tional Science Foundation (NSF)
Valhalla, New York
the utility of missiles to third-world
are not growing commensurately
proliferators. Thus, arms control
with the national need for research
and defenses should be comple-
in areas yielding direct tangible
mentary in gaining broader accep-
benefits, such as biomedicine. In
Protecting
tance for deep reductions in bal-
the case of NIH, with which I am
biodiversity
listic missiles, an idea whose time
most familiar, only 18 to 25 per-
has come.
cent of meritorious peer-reviewed
Walter V. Reid's general thesis—
GREGORY H. CANAVAN
grants are actually funded.
that governmental policies and
Assistant Physics Division Leader
Therefore, a wise move by
actions dealing with biological
Los Alamos National Laboratory
Congress and the president would
resources need to be anticipatory
Los Alamos, New Mexico
be to immediately reduce defense
rather than merely reactive-is
expenditures by 50 percent and
sound ("Toward a National Bio-
make those funds available to the
diversity Policy," Issues, Spring
Recent articles in the Spring 1992
NIH, the NSF, and to small manu-
1992). Clearly, the federal govern-
Issues by Sidney D. Drell and Jac-
facturers (whose support Philip
ment must seek to preserve animal
ques S. Gansler ("Restructuring the
Shapira advocates in "Lessons
habitats, not just rescue specific
Defense Industrial Base") deal
from Japan: Helping Small Manu-
species that have become en-
with rearranging the U.S. national
facturers," also in the Spring issue).
dangered.
defense effort in view of the dra-
This would very quickly provide an
But Reid's proposed solu-
matically altered international
increase in sound research and
tion-more laws, more federal
situation. Yet the Senate recently
education. At present, grants have
spending, and yet another federal
voted a budget of $292 billion for
been approved but not funded.
commission-is unwise and un-
defense, and it seems likely that
Scientists and physicians are ready
necessary, not to mention unrealis-
defense budgets with only minor
to hire people, buy equipment, and
tic at a time of high federal deficits.
reductions from those prevailing in
upgrade facilities and libraries.
The way to enhance the manage-
the Cold War years will end up on
Defense money in such hands will
ment of biological resources is to
the president's desk in the future.
be wisely used for the benefit of the
improve coordination among the
It appears that Congress and
world's people.
federal government, state agencies,
the executive departments fear that
In hindsight, we can say that
and private groups. That can be
a rapid reduction in defense dollars
Japanese and German progress in
done administratively, without
would put skilled technicians, en-
science and technology over the
passing new laws, funding new
gineers, and scientists out of work.
past 30 years was facilitated be-
programs, and creating a commis-
This concept, however, is erron-
cause many of their key national
sion that would inevitably draw up
eous. We in civilian scientific and
resources were not consumed by
a costly wish list of recommended
biomedical research are starved for
defense and could be used to
federal actions.
research dollars. If funds were
develop major civilian science-
It should be noted that the In-
SUMMER 1992
19
terior Department's Bureau of
systematic and thoroughly predict-
Second, although we can ap-
Land Management (BLM) has al-
able change in the structure of na-
plaud the U.S. Endangered Species
ready launched several new long-
ture to favor small-bodied, rapidly
Act, as Reid suggests, it is inade-
term strategies that will accomplish
reproducing organisms over large-
quate as a basis for controlling the
some of the objectives Reid de-
bodied, slowly reproducing ones. It
use of land. The Tellico Dam, to
scribes. Three of these initiatives—
is a general process that affects all
take Reid's example, was indeed
"Forests: Our Growing Legacy,"
life, including agriculture-a pro-
delayed by the snail darter, but
"Range of Our Vision," and "Fish
cess that favors disease organisms
there were far more reasons for not
and Wildlife 2000"-will improve
and the competitors of organisms
building the dam than the pos-
our agency's management of forest
that we use for food.
sibility of that extinction alone. The
ecosystems, public rangelands, and
This progressive biotic im-
dam was an economic disaster, a
fish and wildlife habitats.
poverishment is the product of
boondoggle in the classic sense of
The BLM shares Reid's con-
open-ended climatic warming,
the word, a straightforward politi-
cern for biological diversity. But
now under way; of the progressive
cal accommodation of greed. It
the way to achieve biodiversity
distribution of air pollution, in-
stands now as nothing but a large
goals within the context of other
cluding acid rain and ozone at low
lake, producing no power-a monu-
needs is to make our federal
elevations in the atmosphere; and
ment to the corruption of the pub-
government more effective, not
of the distribution of heavy me-
lic officials of that time.
bigger.
tals and other toxins across the
We would do well to assign
CY JAMISON
landscape and into water bodies. It
responsibility for such errors, not
Director, Bureau of Land Management
transforms forest to grassland and
generally to a corrupt political
U.S. Department of the Interior
grassland to barren soil. This trans-
process, but specifically to the
Washington, D.C.
formation to impoverishment is the
public officials who participated. It
greatest land-use transformation
is Howard Baker, former senator
occurring globally. It bodes ill for
from Tennessee, to whom we owe
Walter V. Reid of the World
the future of all of us.
the greatest debt for this particular
Resources Institute provides a su-
The solution is not simply to
disaster. He should wear it as an
perb analysis of reasons for a na-
expand natural preserves but to
albatross, reminding himself and
tional policy dealing with biodiver-
take far more effective control of
the rest of the nation how he marred
sity. I would amplify his statement
the diffusion into the general en-
an otherwise largely distinguished
with two points.
vironment of chronic disturbances
political career.
First, Reid's emphasis on bio-
from human activities. Most of the
Ignoring such personal re-
diversity is appropriate and expert-
world, strange as it may seem, is
sponsibility leaves government
ly handled, and his conclusions and
run by natural communities that
besmirched and individuals pro-
recommendations for action are
operate through general principles
tected. We can expect better from
completely supportable and cor-
of biology and evolution. These
both. When we do, we shall have
rect. However, I believe that that
communities are not restricted to
governments that represent the
emphasis is far too narrowly placed
parks; they are the forests, lakes,
public interest instead of those
and that even if the entire program
streams, and oceans, with all their
who wish to feed their insatiable
were implemented, it would be in-
attendant living systems. We may
private greed-a greed that in it-
sufficient to reach its objectives.
think that humans run the world,
self makes a major contribution to
The problem is not simply the
but it is these communities that es-
the problems of biodiversity and
loss of species but the systematic
tablish the details of the human
the acceleration of biotic im-
degradation of natural commu-
habitat, and it is the diffusion of
poverishment.
nities of the air, water, and land, a
human influences into them that is
G. M. WOODWELL
process best referred to as "biotic
now changing that habitat rapidly
Director
impoverishment." It includes the
enough to threaten human interests
The Woods Hole Research Center
loss of biodiversity but extends to a
in the near future.
Woods Hole, Massachusetts
20
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
FORUM
Walter V. Reid makes a compelling
goal. Basic to the concept, how-
species that occur in them. This ef-
argument for the need for attention
ever, is that this nation needs to
fort is specifically designed to
to biodiversity. The emerging
conserve species and ecosystems
identify gaps in the national net-
benefits of biotechnology offer
before they reach the brink of ex-
work of areas protected for biologi-
overwhelming justification for the
tinction. Residents of the Pacific
cal diversity. These Gap Analysis
survival of even the most obscure
Northwest are now facing the grim
programs are underway in 22
organism. Solutions to many major
reality of declining salmon runs
states, using satellite remote sens-
human health problems probably
and vanishing ancient forest eco-
ing and computer geographic infor-
lie in the genes of a plant or animal
systems, home to the spotted owl.
mation systems to create detailed
regarded as insignificant until now.
The cost of recovering these
maps of vegetation and the dis-
If only for selfish and short-term
species will be high and could have
tribution of terrestrial vertebrates.
reasons, humans must support
been avoided through a system of
Using these data, modern computer
biodiversity.
national ecological reserves coupled
technology can create a prelimi-
A key point not emphasized
with the sustainable resource
nary assessment of the distribution
by Reid is the need for good science
management policies Reid advo-
of key biodiversity components
in defining an endangered-species
cates.
and the adequacy of their protec-
issue and arriving at a solution.
Calls to maintain represen-
tion, an assessment that could then
Beginning with the case of the snail
tative samples of the nation's eco-
be tested and refined by the Na-
darter, and in all too many cases
systems have gone unheeded in
tional Inventory of Biodiversity
since then, the quality of science on
the past; this was, for example, a
that Reid proposes.
both sides of the argument has
primary objective of the U.S. Inter-
Reid calls for a system of
ranged from mediocre to unaccep-
national Biological Program in
National Ecological Reserves in
table. All the participants in an en-
1967. Today, however, there is
which all species and ecosystem
dangered-species debate have an
evidence that conservationists,
types would be represented. Fol-
obligation to present good scien-
land managers, and developers are
lowing similar efforts in Australia,
tific data rather than the emotional
coming to the collective realization
the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
claims that usually cloud the issue.
that there are economic as well as
will carry out quantitative analyses
Discussions about the economic
ecological benefits to taking an an-
on the distribution of existing reser-
impact of various actions can never
ticipatory management approach
ves, ecosystem types, and species
reach a sound conclusion on the
and moving away from reliance on
in each bioregion in order to locate
basis of faulty data. Federal and
the Endangered Species Act as
prime areas for potential National
state regulators can help the situa-
the sole means of maintaining
Ecological Reserves. The chal-
tion by demanding better science as
biodiversity.
lenge, however, isn't in identifying
part of the regulatory process.
Over the past 18 years, the
biodiversity protection needs but in
WILL D. CARPENTER
Nature Conservancy has helped
actually protecting biodiversity.
Vice President and General Manager,
develop a series of state natural
Here Reid's vision will meet its real
New Products Division
heritage programs that catalog and
test.
Monsanto Agricultural Company
disseminate information on the
St. Louis, Missouri
J. MICHAEL SCOTT, Leader
status and location of species and
BLAIR CSUTI
ecosystems of concern. Collective-
Idaho Cooperative Fish and Wildlife
ly, these data bases are consulted in
Research Unit
Walter V. Reid makes a clear and
over 100,000 conservation and
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
instructive case for the need to
development decisions each year.
University of Idaho
change our nation's approach to
And since 1987, the U.S. Fish and
Moscow, Idaho
EDWARD T. LaROE
managing living resources. Con-
Wildlife Service has been develop-
Director, Cooperative Research Units
servation of biodiversity must be a
ing a national data base on the dis-
Center
fundamental goal of society, and
tribution of communities and eco-
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
we need a mix of tools to meet that
systems as well as the wildlife
Washington, D.C.
SUMMER 1992
21
Investigating
fraudulent and the other a decision
in using a hearing to conduct the
misconduct
as to whether the respondent is
formal investigation. More prefer
responsible, Maechling empha-
to avoid the confrontation and legal
sizes an important dichotomy. Re-
intrusions, and conduct investiga-
Legal scholar Charles Maechling,
viewers must make two decisions:
tions in the traditional way, denying
Jr., raises an important issue in
one is the nature of the offense and
the right to confrontation or cross-
"The Laboratory Is Not a Court-
the other is whether the accused is
examination but allowing an in-
room" (Issues, Spring 1992): En-
culpable. However, I don't believe
dividual the help of counsel when
croachment of the adversarial legal
that these two issues can or should
testifying. However, even these in-
process on scientific fact-finding
be separately evaluated, because
stitutions should provide a regular
and decisionmaking is not in the in-
intent is a feature of the definition
hearing as an option either on ap-
terests of education, science, or
of most forms of research fraud or
peal or before administering a se-
society. One need only reflect on
serious scientific misconduct, and
vere sanction, just as the National
the impact of the legal process on
intent cannot be separated from
Institutes of Health automatically
medical malpractice or workmen's
evaluation of the individual. In too
provide a formal hearing if the
compensation to recognize how
many cases, examination of the re-
penalty of disbarment has been
decisions can vary more with the
search results, data, and records is
recommended. Failure to offer this
skill of the attorneys than with the
not sufficient to confirm or refute
ultimate step to those not willing
fundamental justice of a case. As
charges of impropriety. Removing
to accept the judgment of their
much as possible of the process of
the respondent from this part of the
peers and administrators will simp-
investigating and adjudicating
process simply doesn't work.
ly lead to the playing out of the
claims of misrepresentation should
I was surprised that the argu-
case in court.
be made within the framework of
ment about due process did not
PAUL J. FRIEDMAN
science, not law.
start by reminding the reader that
Dean for Academic Affairs
The form of an institution's
the extent of due process should be
Professor of Radiology
response to allegations of miscon-
related to the penalty that can be
School of Medicine
duct in research varies more than is
imposed on the individual who
University of California, San Diego
implied in Maechling's analysis,
loses a case. This fact underlies the
La Jolla, California
however, and the preferred ter-
substantial difference in due pro-
minology of the several stages dif-
cess afforded under criminal and
fers somewhat from the way he
civil law. It is also relevant to the
Charles Maechling, Jr., states that
presents it. An inquiry is not
procedures that should be followed
applicable federal regulations
"preliminary"; it is a substantial
by institutions and the government
"place primary responsibility for
and well-defined part of the pro-
in dealing with cases of alleged
dealing with misconduct allega-
cess that may result in exoneration,
misconduct. Many would have the
tions on the research institutions
in findings of responsibility for
U.S. Public Health Service's Office
concerned; only if the latter fail to
ethical or technical transgressions
of Scientific Integrity provide a
take prompt and effective action, or
that are not severe enough to war-
greater level of due process in all of
if criminal charges emerge, will
rant investigation but may result in
its actions because of the greater
government investigative bodies
the imposition of some disciplinary
impact of federal than local sanc-
take over." In fact, while the regula-
action, or in continued suspicion
tions on an individual.
tions state that institutions do have
that serious misconduct or research
Institutions do provide increas-
this primary responsibility, they do
fraud has occurred, which requires
ing levels of due process as a dis-
not establish the clear standard ar-
a formal investigation.
pute approaches the level of sub-
ticulated by Maechling, which
In suggesting that an investiga-
stantial sanctions. Investigations
would ensure deference to institu-
tion should have two components,
are more formal than inquiries.
tional action except in prescribed
one being a judgment of whether
Some observe the full panoply of
instances.
the research or publication is
due process from the criminal law
Public Health Service policies
22
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
FORUM
and procedures, for example, ex-
quiry rather than adversarial pro-
"diversionary interventions." They
pressly reserve to the PHS's Office
ceedings. We should recognize,
also have the right to propose lines
of Scientific Integrity the right to
though, that such pressure for
of questioning or correct the record
perform its own investigation
judicialization may stem from un-
(sic). This structure, Maechling
before, during, or after an insti-
certainty and concern over what
maintains, is like a congressional
tution's investigation. Further,
consequences may flow from each
hearing. But a congressional hear-
OSI's review of an institution's in-
stage of inquiry, rather than from
ing is controlled by its asym-
vestigation encompasses whether it
any failure of universities to ensure
metry-the explicit and implicit
was performed with "sufficient ob-
that their proceedings will be
power of the members of Congress,
jectivity, thoroughness, and com-
thorough and fair to "accused"
supported by the physical arrange-
petence." Although at first blush
persons.
ment of a high bench looking down
this seems quite reasonable, it of-
Resolving these uncertainties
on a low bench. Can you imagine a
fers no assurance that the findings
should not mean that procedures
dean and a few professors meeting
of a properly constituted and expert
that are most appropriate to govern-
with two adversarial lawyers and
institutional review panel will be
ment investigations be mandated
their clients and quietly collecting
respected by the agency. The un-
upon universities for their prelimi-
emotionally loaded facts?
certainty thereby created over what
nary proceedings, even where
Maechling the lawyer goes
role, if any, will be played by the
those proceedings are to be disposi-
even further. He says that after the
government agency in reviewing or
tive of issues that are of potential
guilt of an individual has been
reconsidering an institutional in-
interest to the government. As
determined, an open hearing
quiry, investigation, or adjudica-
Maechling argues, proceedings in
should be held, "a mini-trial." The
tion, and when the agency might in-
the collegial style can be fair as
protected whistleblower, the tes-
tervene, adds considerably to the
well as most appropriate to a
timony given in confidence, and
tremendous anxiety suffered by
university setting.
the inevitable interpersonal friction
participants in the process-in-
DOROTHY K. ROBINSON
are now belatedly placed in the un-
cluding those asked to serve on
General Counsel
desired courtroom. If there is to be
review committees as well as per-
Yale University
a trial, let it be from the outset. If
sons whose work is under scrutiny.
there is to be a civil proceeding, the
I agree with Maechling that
results of an investigation should
transforming university inquiries
Charles Maechling, Jr., wisely
be looked at by the university ad-
and investigations into mini-trials
notes the failures of the adversarial
ministration and its faculty advisors
is not desirable and that these
system in reviewing cases of al-
and a decision taken. An inquiry, an
preliminary proceedings can be
leged scientific misconduct. He
investigation, and a review by the
conducted fairly without such
suggests that universities use
administration should be enough to
measures as attorney advocacy and
something like the civil code for
decide a case of scientific fraud.
cross-examination of witnesses.
such investigations, so that they
NORTON ZINDER
Disciplinary adjudications that
lack the confrontational aspects of
John D. Rockefeller, Jr., Professor
may result in the imposition of
the courtroom.
Rockefeller University
severe sanctions against tenured
But suddenly the lawyer in him
New York, New York
faculty members, as he points out,
comes out, and he loses his way.
are already almost universally sub-
During the misconduct proceeding,
ject to these adversarial-style ele-
he would allow every witness to be
Charles Maechling, Jr., makes a
ments of "due process." Calls for a
accompanied by a lawyer. That's
compelling case for not using U.S.
similar degree of attorney involve-
okay, as no one should ever face
trial procedure to investigate scien-
ment (and control) at the prelimi-
such an inquiry alone. But the tar-
tific misconduct. However, the
nary stages should be resisted by
get of the investigation and his/her
terms "scientific misconduct" and
institutions whose own traditions
lawyers are also allowed to be
"questionable research practices"
and governance favor collegial in-
present as long as they don't cause
cannot continue to be used inter-
SUMMER 1992
23
changeably, as they appear to be in
finding by an objective committee
the latter can be investigated and
the article, if we are to agree on ap-
of peers is the effective and ap-
resolved by the research com-
propriate investigative procedures.
propriate way to investigate such
munity as professional matters
The definition of scientific
practices.
without turning the laboratory into
misconduct must be limited to fal-
The same peer-directed proce-
a courtroom. Scientific miscon-
sification, fabrication, and pla-
dures are also appropriate for the
duct, on the other hand, should be
giarism. These activities are dif-
inquiry phase of dealing with al-
addressed by the more appropriate
ferent in kind from questionable
legations of falsification, fabrica-
regulatory and legal procedures.
research practices such as data
tion, and plagiarism. However, if
ALBERT A. BARBER
trimming, data selection, or the
the inquiry results in a decision to
Vice Chancellor, Research Programs
reuse of one's own material in a
move forward to the investigation
University of California-Los Angeles
second publication. To lump all
phase, more formal and legally
these actions into a single category
based procedures are essential, be-
is to trivialize some and magnify
cause it is unlikely that scientific
others.
experts would also be expert in the
Correction:
Maechling is absolutely right
complex matters of evidence and
There was a typographical error
in his position that using criminal
due process that are required for the
in the final paragraph of Stephen
trial procedures to investigate
investigation of cases that could
E. Doyle's letter on page 20 of
questionable research practices
lead to serious sanctions.
the Spring 1992 Issues. The final
could severely weaken the crea-
The benefit of separating sci-
two references to "United States"
tivity of the research environment.
entific misconduct from ques-
should have read "United Nations"
A thorough and fair process of fact-
tionable research practices is that
instead.
24
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
JOSEPH I. LIEBERMAN
To Market, To Market
The debate over President Bush's
change could be severe. Some of
proper role at the Earth Summit in
the most commonly cited potential
Rio de Janeiro threatened to de-
Making carbon
consequences include drought, de-
generate into an election-year
dioxide emissions
forestation, rising sea levels, spe-
brawl. In the end, the president's
cies extinctions, and more severe
decision to go to Rio was made
a marketable
and frequent hurricanes. The study
contingent on the world commu-
concluded that in order to stabilize
nity's acceptance of a substantially
commodity may be
atmospheric concentrations of green-
weakened global warming treaty.
house gases at today's levels, "the
As a result, both the administration
the quickest way to
long-lived gases (such as carbon
and its critics lost the opportunity
slow global warming.
dioxide) would require immediate
to confront the pressing question
reductions in emissions from hu-
of what the United States can do to
man activities of over 60 percent."
lead the world in reducing dan-
In response to this assessment,
gerous carbon dioxide emissions.
more than 150 nations have signed
And leadership must come from the
alter weather patterns. Global at-
a Framework Convention on Cli-
United States because our country
mospheric temperatures are ex-
mate Change, which states that the
bears the greatest responsibility for
pected to rise between 1.5 and 4.5
first prudent step in addressing
the problem: We generate one-
degrees centigrade by the end of
global warming is to stabilize green-
fourth of all carbon dioxide emis-
the next century. This is a rate of
house gas emissions at 1990 levels
sions and consume more fossil
change 10 times greater than that of
by the year 2000. Although atmos-
fuels per capita than any other na-
natural change over the past 10,000
pheric concentrations will continue
tion in the world.
years. It would push global temp-
to increase under this approach, the
Although the science of global
eratures higher than they have been
increase will occur more slowly.
warming is still evolving, there is
in 150,000 years. As the U.S. gov-
The United States can take the
near-unanimous agreement in the
ernment reported in its position
initiative in demonstrating a crea-
scientific community that increased
paper for the Rio summit, "The best
tive and flexible response to global
concentrations of greenhouse gases
scientific information indicates that
warming by drawing on the ideas of
from a wide array of human ac-
if greenhouse gas concentrations in
free-market economics-a central
tivities will likely increase atmos-
the atmosphere continue to in-
feature of our nation's success in
pheric and ocean temperatures and
crease as a result of human activ-
the past. For too long, the goals of
ities, significant changes in the
economic growth and environmen-
climate system are likely."
tal protection have been perceived
The scientific assessment pre-
as mutually exclusive. But the for-
pared for the Second World Cli-
ces of the market can act as a cost-
Senator Joseph I. Lieberman (D-Conn.) is
mate Conference, sponsored by the
a member of the Senate Environment and
effective tool for preventing pollu-
Public Works, Governmental Affairs, and
U.N. Environmental Programme,
tion while promoting economic
Small Business Committees.
found that the impacts of climate
growth.
SUMMER 1992
25
Flawed strategies
so that neither group has an eco-
without regard to cost. As a result,
Until now, ideas for solving our
nomic incentive to change its be-
a company that can easily and
global warming problem have been
havior. We can continue to hope
cheaply reduce its emissions will
centered on three policy options:
that some producers and consum-
make the required cutback and
one, do nothing; two, mandate car-
ers will perform altruistic "good
stop, when it could easily afford to
bon dioxide reductions; and three,
deeds," but the simple economics
make more significant reductions.
tax fossil fuels.
of fuel consumption dictate that
Meanwhile, another company may
The administration has been a
more must be done.
pay a much higher cost for its re-
consistent advocate of the do-noth-
Those who would mandate
ductions and still find itself unable
ing approach. At first, administra-
reductions in carbon dioxide emis-
to meet its legal obligation. Such a
tion officials did not believe that
sions belong to the "command-
case would even create an incen-
global warming could cause cli-
and-control" school. They uphold
tive for a company to violate the
mate change. Now the administra-
the time-honored tradition of writ-
law in hopes that the shortcomings
tion has accepted this scientific
ing detailed regulations setting
of the bureaucracy would save the
conclusion but believes that simply
forth emission limits, establishing
violator from discovery.
encouraging businesses to cut their
technology controls to meet those
Finally, fossil fuel taxes have
emissions and enforcing existing
limits, building a bureaucracy to
won the support of advocates in
laws as well as the pending energy
manage and enforce those regula-
Congress and in the European
bill sponsored by Senator Bennett
tions, and trying our best to tailor
Community. Supporters argue that
Johnston (D-La.) will result in
those requirements to the vagaries
increasing the price of fossil fuels
enough reductions to address the
of the marketplace.
will lead to improvements in ef-
global warming threat.
Some such regulations will
ficiency and decreases in consump-
In support of this position, ad-
most probably be necessary ele-
tion, both of which will reduce
ministration officials point to a
ments in our efforts to control car-
carbon dioxide emissions.
number of excellent voluntary pro-
bon dioxide emissions. For instance,
Because fuel taxes are pricing
grams. For example, the Environ-
stronger energy-efficiency standards
mechanisms, they are far less eco-
mental Protection Agency's Green
should be established for certain
nomically clumsy than command-
Lights program encourages busi-
sectors of the economy, such as
and-control laws, which by nature
ness, government, and other or-
appliances and automobiles.
are divorced from economic real-
ganizations to use energy-efficient
But although command-and-
ities. However, fossil fuel taxes still
lighting. According to EPA, this
control approaches are politically
have a serious flaw: No one knows
program could cut the nation's de-
popular-it's easy, and sounds tough,
precisely what level of taxation is
mand for electricity by more than
to propose a one-size-fits-all solu-
enough. If the tax burden is too
10 percent, leading to significant
tion-they are frequently neither
light, emission targets will be
reductions in emissions of carbon
the most affordable nor the most
missed. If the burden is too heavy,
dioxide.
enforceable systems. For example,
we may overshoot our targets and
Nonetheless, the magnitude
the complications of enforcing
hamper economic growth.
of fossil fuel consumption in this
such a rule against small emitters
The fuel tax proposals general-
country is so vast, and the expected
would probably lead to special ex-
ly recommend starting at relatively
growth of emissions is so daunting,
emptions that in turn would place a
low tax rates and then phasing in
that it is highly unlikely that vol-
disproportionate burden on the
stepped increases. These proposals
unteerism will be enough to resolve
large companies that are easier to
specify that the increases go into
the global warming crisis. As econ-
monitor. Command-and-control
effect regardless of whether de-
omists like to say, carbon dioxide
mechanisms are the blunt instru-
mand is responding as expected.
emissions are an "externality": The
ments of environmental manage-
This means that even if the under-
costs of environmental damage are
ment.
lying response assumptions of a
not allocated among either pro-
In addition, command-and-
graduated carbon tax are wrong,
ducers or consumers of fossil fuels,
control mandates expect reductions
the tax will remain in effect unless
26
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
modified by Congress. And Con-
major sources, which can be iden-
gress does not have a good track
tified and monitored with relatively
record in fine-tuning taxes. To
Marketable permits
little effort. Moreover, the concept
make matters worse, if we do un-
allow us to meet
of using market incentives to con-
dertake the fine-tuning necessary
trol pollution has won broad bipar-
to find the "right" tax level, com-
our emissions targets
tisan support in the past.
panies that emit carbon dioxide
The mechanism is relatively
may be unable to determine when
at the lowest
simple. The government begins by
or how much they should invest in
setting an overall level of emissions
emission reductions. Planning for
possible costs.
that it considers acceptable. Each
the future would be virtually im-
emission source is then granted a
possible. Finally, no new tax
permit allowing it to emit a fixed
scheme would survive the legisla-
share of this total. These emission
tive process without a host of ex-
1991 to adopt a five-cent-per-gal-
allowances will be based on past
emptions, fluctuating rates, and
lon gasoline tax that would have
emission levels, an auction, or some
other loopholes, all of which make
provided funds for popular high-
other criteria. No company can
achievement of our environmental
way and transit programs.
emit more than its allotment.
goals unlikely.
Finally, the effectiveness of a
This is where the market comes
Fossil fuel taxes also suffer
carbon tax in controlling the price
in. Companies are allowed to trade
from the fatal shortcoming of being
of fuel to consumers can be under-
their emissions allowances with
unfair because they are regressive.
mined by the actions of the
each other. If one firm can reduce
Fuel taxes place a dispropor-
countries that supply us with oil.
emissions to well below its legal
tionately large burden on the poor
For example, after the European
limits at relatively low cost, it can
and middle class, who spend a
nations agreed to levy a $3-a-barrel
sell the emission allowances it
larger share of their earnings on
carbon tax on oil, Saudi Arabia
saved through those additional
energy, and also on small business.
decided to limit its production as a
reductions to another firm that
The potential regressive impact of
way to boost oil prices. If policy-
finds it too costly to meet its legal
this tax may be heightened be-
makers want to use higher prices
requirements. Thus, there is incen-
cause, as noted above, the tax may
to reduce oil consumption, the oil
tive for some companies to reduce
be larger than we need to meet our
suppliers want to be the ones to reap
emissions more than is required by
environmental goals. Creating a tax
the benefits.
law, and there is less incentive for
structure that mitigates this prob-
other companies to violate the law.
lem is very difficult.
The unused arrow
As in a tax system, reductions
The public's willingness to ac-
The final unused arrow in our
of carbon dioxide emissions are
cept tax increases-even when the
nation's policy quiver-using the
made in the most cost-effective
threat of global warming has been
market to reduce carbon dioxide
way possible. But this approach
explained-is dubious. An exten-
emissions-is, in my view, one of
differs from a tax in that the market,
sive public opinion survey con-
the best answers to a significant
rather than the government, deter-
ducted by the Public Agenda
part of the global warming prob-
mines the incremental cost of emis-
Foundation in 1989 found that "a
lem. We can establish aggressive
sions. The price of emissions al-
few measures (to control green-
emissions targets and let the forces
lowances will fluctuate depending
house gases) were overwhelmingly
of the free market determine the
on how difficult it is for companies
rejected, including
taxing home-
most efficient, creative ways to
to reduce emissions. Allowance
owners' use of heating oil, [and]
achieve those targets. Although this
prices can also fluctuate to reflect
increasing the gasoline tax." The
option is not a one-size-fits-all so-
changes in supply and demand as
public's antipathy toward fuel
lution, it offers a clear-cut, stream-
well as changes in technology. No
taxes was reflected by the failure of
lined, easy-to-implement approach
government fine-tuning will be
the House of Representatives in
to controlling emissions from
required.
SUMMER 1992
27
More important, marketable
moving in the direction of practical
proximately 2,000 facilities-vir-
emissions permits differ from a tax
nonpartisan answers to this serious
tually all utility sources emitting
by guaranteeing that we meet our
environmental threat, Senator John
carbon dioxide-will eventually be
environmental obligation. As long
Chafee (R-R.I.), Representatives
covered. Industrial facilities, such
as we successfully prohibit any
Jim Cooper (D-Tenn.) and Mike
as large steel plants, would also be
firm from emitting carbon dioxide
Synar (D-Okla.), and I have joined
covered because they have large
in amounts exceeding the allowan-
in introducing the CO2 Offset Pol-
in-house power supplies similar to
ces it holds, we will meet our en-
icy Efficiency Act (COPE), which
large power plants.
vironmental target. Marketable
incorporates the use of marketable
Companies can take a variety
permits also allow us to meet those
permits to reduce carbon dioxide
of actions to earn "credits" to satis-
targets at the lowest possible cost.
emissions.
fy their offset requirements. For ex-
And given the monumental size of
The bill specifies certain types
ample, a utility plant can earn car-
the needed reductions in carbon
of large industrial and utility
bon dioxide credits by switching to
dioxide emissions, costs are a criti-
facilities that will be allowed to
less carbon-intensive fuels or by
cal factor in choosing a solution.
operate only if they arrange for a
promoting conservation measures
Although using marketable
reduction in carbon dioxide emis-
among its customers. Similarly,
permits is not a novel idea, it has
sions elsewhere to offset what they
companies can earn credits by
not yet been tried on a significant
emit. These offset requirements are
planting forests, producing ap-
scale. Some limited programs ex-
imposed only on new plants that
pliances with higher efficiency
isted under the old Clean Air Act,
can emit at least 100,000 tons of
ratings, or capturing methane from
but only recently have policy-
carbon dioxide, plants that are "re-
their landfills. They can apply these
makers begun to recognize the
powered" or substantially modified
credits to their own offset require-
broad applicability of this ap-
after January 1, 1995, or plants that
ments or trade them on the open
proach. In 1990, Congress and the
reach the age of 65 years. The size
market. COPE ensures that gen-
president selected market mech-
cutoff of 100,000 tons was selected
uine reductions are made by di-
anisms as a means to implement the
because research for the acid rain
recting the EPA to develop criteria
acid rain control program in the
provisions of the Clean Air Act
setting out which activities can be
Clean Air Act Amendments. In Los
showed that plants of this size can
certified for credit. Only activities
Angeles, the South Coast Air
easily be monitored. (A new gas-
that provide a net gain for the en-
Quality District recently adopted a
fired 20-megawatt turbine would
vironment will generate market-
system of marketable permits for
generate roughly 100,000 tons of
able credits.
controlling ozone levels. And the
carbon dioxide per year.) Enforce-
COPE will provide a powerful
United Nations Conference on
ment, therefore, is relatively
financial incentive for companies
Trade and Development released a
straightforward. By including plants
to take steps to arrest the growth
plan earlier this year that encour-
that reach the age of 65 years, the
of greenhouse gas emissions. Al-
aged development of a global mar-
legislation discourages the un-
ready, some progressive firms have
ket for air pollution permits. Al-
limited operation of "clunkers"-
committed themselves to meeting
ready, the Chicago Board of Trade
old, unmodernized plants that do
self-imposed offset requirements.
has been given permission to list
not have up-to-date pollution
In its Connecticut and Hawaii
allowance futures as a marketable
control equipment. In this way,
plants, for example, Allied Energy
commodity in anticipation of trad-
COPE would gradually establish
Services, an independent power
ing. It seems that this is an idea
a carbon dioxide trading system
producer, has implemented a cor-
whose time has come.
as plants are created, revamped,
porate policy requiring it to offset
or retired.
all new carbon dioxide emissions.
How to COPE
Together, the plants covered
By rewarding such achievements,
with climate change
under this plan account for about
COPE will motivate many more
To advance the debate on global
one-third of all carbon dioxide
companies to undertake conserva-
warming solutions and to get us
emissions in the United States. Ap-
tion measures.
28
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Adoption of COPE will also
plant-by-plant monitoring must be
most challenging environmental
help the United States in negotiat-
in place to ensure that claimed re-
problems we face as a nation and,
ing international environmental
ductions have actually occurred.
individually, as stewards of the
agreements. U.S. negotiators will
The Clean Air Act already takes an
planet. The urgency and com-
be able to point to quantifiable
initial step forward by requiring
plexity of the problem require us to
gains as a result of this policy. With
utility sources to start monitoring
break with the past and develop
a proven track record of real reduc-
carbon dioxide emissions in 1993.
new ways of dealing with pollu-
tions, our representatives will be in
Third, the program must include a
tion. By giving the market a chance
a stronger position in negotiating
strong enforcement provision to
to work on behalf of the environ-
future emissions agreements and
prevent evasion and to punish
ment, the sale of emission allow-
will therefore be able to moderate
violators with substantial automat-
ances will reduce carbon dioxide
the impact of environmental trea-
ic fines. COPE imposes a sanction
emissions in the most efficient,
ties on our economy.
equal to roughly four times the es-
cost-effective way possible. Al-
For COPE to be fully effective,
timated cost of offsets; the sanc-
though the measures outlined in
however, several key criteria must
tions would be paid before enforce-
COPE are only some of the actions
be met. As we learned from the de-
ment proceedings commence.
needed to control global warming,
bate over acid rain controls in the
(This provision duplicates almost
they show how the combination
Clean Air Act, establishing initial
precisely the sanction provisions of
of environmental goals and eco-
baselines will be critical to ensure
the acid rain segment of the Clean
nomic incentives can blend two
that emission reductions are cred-
Air Act).
kinds of "green" power into one
ited properly. Second, accurate
Global warming is one of the
overwhelming force for change.
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
V
MIIIII
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Washington, D.C. 20036
DON E. KASH
F. KARL WILLENBROCK
Engineering Education
for the Workers of the Future
U.S. industry leaders have an-
Adjusting to new goals
nounced their desire to restructure
Training workers with these skills
management, product-develop-
New production
will require significant changes in
ment, and manufacturing practices
methods and
U.S. technical and engineering
to speed innovation, reduce costs,
education. We need to provide
and improve quality. Educators
have proclaimed that redesigned
management
educational opportunities that not
only match the future needs of in-
companies will require more high-
practices will require
dustry but also appeal to young
ly trained workers, particularly
workers with a
people choosing a career path. The
with technical skills. Together they
United States is already having
have called for improvements in
elementary and high school educa-
different mix of skills.
trouble recruiting people for techni-
cal careers, especially among wom-
tion so that more students will be
en and ethnic minorities, and the
prepared to enter technical and en-
country's need for such workers
gineering schools. But no one has
will continue to grow.
noticed that the technical and en-
the plant floor to come up with
In order to attract young peo-
gineering schools, oriented toward
ideas to improve the manufacturing
ple, the educational system should
meeting industry's current needs,
process. Companies are also recog-
offer potential students three in-
may not be providing the kind of
nizing that incremental improve-
ducements: immediate rewards (in
training that will be needed in the
ments in product performance and
the form of clear job opportunities),
21st century.
manufacturing efficiency can pro-
permeability (easy entry and exit to
The production system of the
vide the essential margin of com-
allow for retraining and improving
future will depend on flexible
petitive advantage. This means less
skills), and potential for growth (a
manufacturing, which will require
emphasis on technological break-
foundation that will make it pos-
workers to perform a wider variety
throughs from research engineers
sible to go on to more advanced
of tasks. In fact, companies are in-
and more on small improvements
degrees).
creasingly counting on workers on
from production engineers and
Turning out students who have
technicians. More engineers with
immediately marketable skills is
today's research-oriented training
particularly important in attracting
are not the country's primary need.
economically disadvantaged stu-
Don E. Kash holds the Hazel Chair in the
Instead, it will need more prac-
dents who need to know what the
Institute of Public Policy at George Mason
tice-oriented engineers who can
payoff will be for postponing their
University. F. Karl Willenbrock is current-
contribute to manufacturing pro-
entry into the workforce. To ensure
ly Visiting Professor of Engineering and
cess improvements and more en-
employability, the educational pro-
Public Policy at Carnegie Mellon Univer-
gineering technicians capable of
sity and has been an engineering faculty
gram should be closely tied to in-
member and academic administrator at
keeping up with rapidly evolving
dustry and responsive to rapidly
three universities.
technology.
changing technology. Designing
30
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
programs around a technological
this requires a balance between
interest in technology and useful
area such as telecommunications-
skills in analysis and synthesis.
on-the-job experience should not,
rather than a single discipline such
Students need to see technology in
and need not, be shut out from more
as mechanical or electrical en-
systemic terms and understand that
advanced levels of professional
gineering-will help.
the interconnections among com-
education.
Permeability is critical in an
ponents may be as important as the
In 1990, approximately 380,000
era of rapid technological change.
components themselves. Early em-
full-and part-time students were
Much of the focus on theoretical
phasis on systems design as well as
studying for the B.S. degree in en-
knowledge in the present educa-
close interaction with industry can
gineering, the dominant route to
tional system comes from the
contribute to this goal.
an engineering career. These pro-
recognition that practical training
Third, a practice-oriented tech-
grams require strong mathematical
can soon be out of date. But em-
nological education and training
and scientific capability, have a
ployers want workers with practi-
route must foster development of
primarily disciplinary focus, em-
cal skills. Permeability, with its as-
communication capabilities-a
phasize analysis in contrast to the
sumption that people move in and
commonly neglected aspect of en-
integrative aspects of engineering,
out of the educational system over
gineering education. Engineering
and thus tend to prepare students
their working careers, offers an al-
is carried out predominantly in or-
for R&D careers. Current B.S.
ternative to emphasizing the the-
ganizations, and those involved
programs give relatively little em-
oretical. And to be truly permeable,
must work with people with diverse
phasis to the practical design and
the system should allow any stu-
skills and backgrounds. Strong
manufacturing functions that are
dent to return to school to pursue a
speaking and writing abilities, as
the focus of the majority of engi-
more advanced degree as well as to
well as social skills, are required.
neers employed in the industrial
update skills.
Although specific coursework is
sector. Similarly, most faculty
Once we attract these students,
essential, some schools have also
members are interested primarily
what will they need? First, com-
found that the use of teams of stu-
in research and have relatively little
petence in mathematics and sci-
dents from different disciplines in
experience or familiarity with in-
ence is essential as a foundation for
both course and laboratory work
dustrial practice.
increasingly advanced skills. But
can be effective in honing com-
The disciplinary research focus
the math and science requirements
munication skills.
is even more pronounced in the
should be consistent with the tech-
Coordinating better worker
case of the M.S. and Ph.D. degrees.
nological competence needed in a
training is complicated by the fact
Most master's degree programs are
specific industry. For example, in
that the United States has two es-
simply a step in the research train-
many computer-oriented technol-
sentially independent educational
ing that is the essence of the
ogies, linear algebra is more impor-
systems for technical workers. The
Ph.D. As such, they are discipline-
tant than calculus. The point is that
engineering technology system,
focused and poorly matched to the
in a flexible educational program
which included approximately
technological areas of primary in-
offering periodic reentry, the math
120,000 full- and part-time stu-
dustrial concern.
and science requirements can be
dents in 1990, begins with two-year
designed to meet current needs on a
programs that produce technicians
A new system
timely basis.
with associate degrees. Associate
To meet the anticipated national
Second, an integrative capa-
degree holders can go on to a bac-
need for skilled technical workers
bility must be developed. Integra-
calaureate degree in engineering
we propose restructuring and in-
tion requires that at every level of
technology, but this degree has an
tegrating the two systems into what
their education students learn to
ill-defined status among many em-
we call the 2-4-6-8 system. Our in-
address the different aspects of
ployers and does not prepare stu-
tention is to design a system that
technological development-from
dents for admission to masters or
has a clear purpose for each 2-year
R&D to design and production
doctoral programs in engineering.
segment keyed to specific needs of
through to servicing. Conceptually,
This large group of people with an
industry.
31
SUMMER 1992
Two-year-level. The first level
ing of expertise that runs from
of training would still be a two-year
theoretical knowledge to hands-on
degree that would prepare a student
U.S. colleges should
skill so that every effort should be
for a job as an engineering tech-
nician. But the curriculum would
offer a range
made to overcome rigid expertise
distinctions, which can be barriers
also include the courses needed for
the first half of a baccalaureate
of B.S. engineering
to effective rapid synthesis. Rather,
U.S. engineering schools should
degree.
programs that match
offer a range of B.S. engineering
This approach is modeled, in
the diverse needs of
programs that match the diverse
part, on Japan's system of technical
needs of engineering practice and
colleges and related universities.
engineering practice.
the diverse capabilities of incom-
After World War II, Japan created
ing students. Engineering schools
a system of 62 technical colleges
with research-oriented faculties
that offer five-year technician train-
should continue their current four-
ing programs by combining the
year programs with a disciplinary
last three years of secondary school
workforce would be able to return
R&D focus, but in hiring new
with the first two years of college.
in the future to update or upgrade
faculty they should consider people
Most graduates then go on to in-
specific skills or to seek a B.S.
with industry experience. Those
dustrial employment, but almost 15
degree.
schools that have faculties rich in
percent go on for a baccalaureate
industrial experience should use
or master's degree. In 1976, two
Four-year level. In developing
that expertise to develop practice-
new universities of technology
the four-year requirements, we
oriented curricula. The graduates
were established at Toyohashi and
took special note of the German
of the two-year programs would
Nagaoka to offer M.S. programs
system, which provides two routes
usually go into such practice-ori-
specifically tailored for technical
to an engineering education: a
ented B.S. programs. The expanded
college graduates. In contrast to the
theory-oriented path provided by
range of baccalaureate programs
primarily academic backgrounds
the Technische Hochschule and an
would produce degree holders edu-
of faculty in traditional Japanese
applications-oriented path provided
cated for design, production and
universities, faculty at these two in-
by the Fachhochschule. The Tech-
manufacturing, and service func-
stitutions have extensive industrial
nische Hochschule have research-
tions as well as for research. The
experience.
oriented faculties and offer R&D-
marketplace for jobs should take
In the United States, a modi-
oriented undergraduate programs
care of the allocation of students
fication of the traditional engineer-
similar to those in U.S. research
between the theory- and practice-
ing as well as the engineering tech-
universities. The Fachhochschule,
oriented options.
nology programs is necessary for
which typically have faculty mem-
Some schools have experi-
this approach to work. Both should
bers with extensive industrial ex-
mented with a heavier emphasis on
accent engineering applications
perience, emphasize engineering
engineering applications in the first
while providing the mathematical
functions such as design, manufac-
two years and have developed the
and scientific content necessary to
turing and production, marketing,
concept of "co-requisites." Tradi-
enable students to understand those
and service. This dual system pro-
tional B.S. engineering curricula
applications. Four-year schools as
vides a wider range of educational
begin with primary emphasis on
well as junior colleges could offer
opportunities for engineers than is
prerequisite courses in science and
such two-year programs. Upon com-
currently available in the United
math in the first two years and then
pletion of the two-year segment,
States.
assign courses with more emphasis
students would have the option of
We do not propose a division
on design and applications to the
moving directly into the workforce
of U.S. engineering schools as in
last two years. As an alternative, we
or continuing to a B.S. degree in
Germany. Modern technology in-
recommend the "just-in-time" cur-
engineering. Those entering the
creasingly requires the synthesiz-
ricula advocated by some innova-
32
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
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PERSPECTIVES
tive engineering educators in
An excellent example of a
careers and perhaps to repay the
which the scientific and mathe-
practice-oriented master's program
loans that financed their under-
matical background is introduced
is the information networking pro-
graduate education. Ph.D. pro-
as a co-requisite when needed to
gram inaugurated by Carnegie
grams should attract students with
understand the applications. This
Mellon University in 1989 with
practice-oriented training as well
arrangement helps practical-minded
the support of Bell Communica-
as those who choose the research-
engineering students understand
tions Research (Bellcore), the re-
oriented path as undergraduates.
the value of the underlying mathe-
search arm of the Bell operating
The current practice of enrolling
matics and science.
companies. The program combines
top-quality foreign students and
courses in electrical engineering,
hiring faculty regardless of national
Six-year level. Growing tech-
computer science, industrial admin-
origin in order to take advantage
nological complexity has led many
istration, and public policy. Faculty
of the world's best talent should
engineering faculty members to
members from the four areas, work-
be continued.
argue that a four-year baccalau-
ing with Bellcore engineers, de-
reate degree is an inadequate basis
veloped a fourteen-month M.S.
Steps toward
for entrance to the engineering
degree program. By October 1992,
implementation
profession. Such arguments, how-
more than 100 students from nine
The highly decentralized nature of
ever, have not been persuasive
companies will have completed
the U.S. educational system is
either to students, who often want
this program.
usually perceived as a serious im-
to pursue careers immediately upon
Greater availability of prac-
pediment to broad-based reforms
completion of a baccalaureate de-
tice-oriented M.S. degree pro-
such as the 2-4-6-8 system. Indeed,
gree, or to employers, who do not
grams could help relieve some of
we can expect determined opposi-
offer significantly higher salaries
the current curriculum overload
tion to these fundamental and far-
to engineers with M.S. degrees.
that characterizes many engineer-
reaching proposals, so that a full-
The problem is that most cur-
ing baccalaureate programs. Many
scale overhaul of the curriculum is
rent U.S. master's programs in en-
U.S. students take more than four
highly unlikely anytime soon. But
gineering are a step in the path to a
years to complete these nominal
decentralization may prove to be an
Ph.D. rather than a step toward
four-year programs.
asset in this case by allowing forex-
professional engineering practice.
perimentation and incremental
We propose that master's degree
Eight-year level. Current
reform at individual institutions.
programs focus on engineering
Ph.D. programs will require the
And although the leading research-
practice through multidisciplinary
least change because they will still
oriented schools will undoubtedly
technology-based curricula.
focus on teaching students how to
continue along their present path,
Industry should play the role
do engineering research. However,
other schools might see an oppor-
of identifying the technological
two changes are desirable: The re-
tunity for growth and enhanced
areas of focus and the performance
search focus should shift from a
prestige in following the practice-
capabilities that a graduate should
primary emphasis on performance,
oriented path.
have. The engineering school fac-
which characterizes defense-re-
There are specific incremental
ulty retains responsibility for
lated research, to a greater em-
actions that can be taken now to
designing the specific courses and
phasis on the requirements of com-
move toward the proposed system.
setting the academic requirements.
mercial technology; and every effort
Systematic curriculum develop-
Such programs should teach stu-
should be made to reverse the trend
ment programs should be under-
dents how to advance the state of
toward lengthening the time need-
taken by educators with academic
the art of engineering practice
ed to complete the Ph.D. Such
experience in both engineering and
rather than how to enlarge the en-
lengthening has served to decrease
engineering technology instruc-
gineering knowledge base, which
the attractiveness of Ph.D. programs
tion, and the resulting curricula
is the domain of the research-
to many U.S. students who are
should be tested in two- and four-
oriented programs.
eager to begin their professional
year schools.
SUMMER 1992
33
At the four-year level, more
focused curricular developments.
pace, history offers at least two
U.S. engineering schools should
At the six-year level, NSF, as
examples of deliberate and suc-
be encouraged to develop applica-
well as mission agencies with tech-
cessful reform movements in pro-
tions-oriented baccalaureate pro-
nological interests, could provide
fessional education. In the 1920s,
grams. Engineers with industrial
multiyear support to universities
the U.S. medical education sys-
backgrounds will be essential to
able to respond to industry-iden-
tem recreated itself by instituting a
this process. Although there are
tified needs. By increasing the
rigorous science-based curriculum.
currently some U.S. schools with
availability of technology-focused
Similarly, after World War II, en-
a significant number of faculty
programs, the government could
gineering education underwent a
members with industrial experi-
expand the number of engineers
massive transformation from a
ence, most institutions will need to
capable of advancing engineering
handbook-based to a science-based
recruit such faculty. In addition,
practice in critical technologies.
system. Once the need for change
other academic programs that fea-
At the eight-year level, the
was clearly recognized and the
ture strong academic-industrial
health of the existing research
direction for reform articulated,
linkages, such as the engineering
enterprise in the major universities
progress was quite rapid. Dissatis-
research centers supported by the
needs to be preserved. This need
faction with the status quo is
National Science Foundation and
is well recognized and has been
growing in the United States.
the National Aeronautics and
ably articulated.
Our intention is to begin to ar-
Space Administration, may pro-
Although educational change
ticulate a vision of where we
vide another route for technology-
often seems to proceed at a glacial
need to go.
34
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
SARA NICHOLAS
The War Over Wetlands
Safeguarding these
critical natural assets
will require
During his 1988 presidential cam-
improved laws
and to people. Wetlands are located
paign, George Bush trumpeted two
as well as incentives
in every state, though they are con-
catchy slogans that have lingered to
centrated in the Southeast, the
haunt him. One was the infamous
that foster
upper Midwest, the Gulf coast, and
"no new taxes." The other was "no
wise management.
the East coast. They include vast
net loss." This lesser-known slogan
meadows of grasses in coastal salt
marked Bush's pledge to support
marshes and isolated "prairie pot-
measures that would balance any
holes" that dot the northern plains
destruction of wetlands caused by
by the thousands; huge expanses
activities such as development and agricultural con-
of wooded swamps such as the Okefenokee and thin
version with the restoration of damaged wetlands or
ribbons of weedy riverbanks; acidic bogs in New
the creation of new wetlands. But the administration
England and bottomlands along the Mississippi delta.
has since backpedaled furiously from the original con-
The benefits that wetlands provide vary somewhat
cept of "no net loss," and the issue has come to frame
according to their type and location, but most perform
the current vociferous debate over how to manage the
essentially the same function. Wetlands reduce the
nation's rapidly disappearing wetlands.
severity of floods by slowing and storing storm waters,
The term "wetland" encompasses areas that,
and help recharge surface and groundwater supplies
roughly speaking, are often covered by shallow water
during dry periods. They purify lakes, streams, and
or have water-saturated soil and that support vegeta-
coastal waters by filtering out pollutants from urban
tion adapted to wet conditions. But this rather sterile
and agricultural runoff and by trapping sediments that
description gives little hint of the diversity of wetlands
can choke aquatic life. They provide essential habitat
or of their numerous benefits to both the natural world
for countless species of mammals and birds, and serve
as spawning grounds for commercially important fish
and shellfish. Their plants protect shorelines from
erosion. They are a source of natural-resource prod-
Sara Nicholas is a senior research associate at the Environmental
ucts such as hay and cranberries. And, not to be over-
Law Institute in Washington, D.C.
looked, wetlands provide badly needed open spaces
SUMMER 1992
35
and a variety of recreational opportunities from hunt-
To protect wetlands from this onslaught, Congress
ing and fishing to hiking and birdwatching.
must amend the Clean Water Act to explicitly cover
Yet, wetlands have historically been among the
wetlands and to expand the degree of protection. At
nation's most abused resources. Only an estimated 95
the same time, the rights of landowners cannot be dis-
million acres of wetlands remain in the contiguous 48
missed, and federal, state, and local governments
states, less than half the amount present when Euro-
should develop nonregulatory programs that would
pean settlers arrived. Although the rate at which wet-
use education and financial incentives to promote wet-
lands are now disappearing is a matter of argument,
land conservation and wise management. Only such a
federal and private estimates place it at between
concerted effort can stop the hemorrhaging of wetland
200,000 and 400,000 acres per year. About 80 percent
losses.
of all losses have been due to draining wetlands to
create cropland and pastures, which was aggressively
Redefining wetlands
promoted by the federal government until the mid-
The administration's attack on wetlands begins at the
1980s. Urban and suburban sprawl, coastal develop-
most basic level: with the definition of what, exactly,
ment, and conversion to commercial timberland are
wetlands are. The problem stems from the fact that
other major causes. And in Louisiana, where 40 per-
wetlands are neither fish nor fowl, though they are un-
cent of the nation's coastal wetlands remain, oil and
paralleled habitats for both. That is, they are not quite
natural gas pumping and other human activities have
land and not quite water-indeed, some wetlands look
combined with a rising sea level to drown increasing
convincingly like dry land-so they do not fall clearly
portions of the bayous, some of the world's most
under an established regulatory heading. Most wet-
productive fish and shellfish nurseries.
lands were brought under the umbrella of the Clean
Nor does the future look much brighter. Wetlands
Water Act when they were declared to be "waters of
first received a limited measure of regulatory protec-
the United States," deserving of protection by virtue of
tion under 1972 amendments to the Clean Water Act
their proximity to deeper water and their ability to
prohibiting the dredging or filling of wetlands without
protect water quality. But the government agencies with
obtaining a permit from the Army Corps of Engineers.
regulatory jurisdiction often disagreed about when a
In the 1985 Farm Bill, Congress included the "Swamp-
wetland was really a wetland, and landowners seeking
buster" program to withhold subsidies from farmers
a permit to dredge or fill a particular site could fre-
who drained wetlands for agricultural use. But pres-
quently succeed by playing one agency off against
sure to erode even this small measure of regulatory
another. Wetlands were on rather shaky footing.
protection has never been greater, as interest groups
To remedy matters, in 1989 scientists from the
representing agriculture, real estate, the oil and gas in-
four federal agencies with primary wetlands jurisdic-
dustry, housing construction, and other development-
tion-the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA),
oriented ventures gain the ear of government officials.
the Army Corps of Engineers, the Fish and Wildlife
President Bush, who once vowed to protect wet-
Service, and the Soil Conservation Service-joined
lands "no matter how small," has responded to this
together to reconcile their longstanding differences
pressure with a well-orchestrated campaign that could
and propose a common methodology for delineating
threaten fully half of the nation's remaining wetlands.
wetlands. The manual they issued declared that an area
The White House defends its position by claiming that
need only be wet for seven continuous days a year and
previous regulations covered many areas that are not
the soil saturated within six to 18 inches of the surface
really wetlands and went too far in blocking develop-
to meet the federal definition of a wetland. The seven-
ment and denying landowners their rights to develop
day requirement was selected because it was believed
their property. Some members of Congress, from both
to be the minimum duration of saturation needed to
sides of the aisle, have also proposed legislation to rein
maintain the biological and chemical properties that
in wetlands protection. And growing numbers of land-
support wetland vegetation. The manual also placed
owners, encouraged by a conservative shift in the ju-
the burden of proof on an owner to show that land was
dicial system during the Bush and Reagan years, are
not a wetland in order to obtain a permit from the Army
pressing their cases in the courts.
Corps to develop the property.
36
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
WETLANDS
The manual was met with howls
tucky, Oklahoma, and Arizona. In-
of protest from many landowners
deed, many experts have con-
and developers, who claimed the
Congress must
cluded that the new manual, which
new guidelines brought more and
amend the
is replete with loopholes and incon-
more negligibly wet areas under
sistencies, would remove from
federal regulation. But many pri-
Clean Water Act
protection half of all the wetlands
vate and government wetland ex-
to make
currently regulated under the Clean
perts maintain that the 1989 man-
Water Act.
ual was so similar to previous
wetland protection
In a parallel thrust, the ad-
guidelines that the range of juris-
ministration has issued an "Im-
dictional wetlands remained essen-
an explicit provision.
plementation Plan," proposed in
tially unchanged. What did change
August 1991 and refined and ex-
was that better coordination be-
panded in November, that would
tween the Army Corps (which is-
further weaken federal protection.
sues permits) and the EPA (which reviews the permits
For one thing, the plan seeks to expedite-and thus
issued) weeded out unwarranted dredge and fill pro-
relax-the process by which the Army Corps grants
jects that once slipped through regulatory cracks. Even
permits authorizing wetland dredging and filling. It
so, the new manual did little to restrain wetland de-
calls for expanding the range of development-related
struction: In 1990, the Army Corps approved 95 per-
activities that need undergo only a so-called "gen-
cent of all individual permit applications.
eral" permit process, which entails far less scrutiny of
The Bush administration-led by the Council on
the proposal by the Corps.
Economic Competitiveness, headed by Vice President
The plan also promotes categorization of wetlands
Quayle, and the Domestic Policy Council's Task Force
as a means to divide "valuable" areas worthy of con-
on Wetlands, led by Teresa Gorman-entered the fray,
tinued protection from "less valuable" areas that
and in the summer of 1991 overruled federal environ-
would then become unregulated. There is a strong al-
mental officials and proposed its own wetlands man-
lure to the idea that such ranking would channel scarce
ual. It seeks a more restrictive definition of a wetland:
resources to those wetlands most worth preserving
specifically, land would have to be covered with water
while allowing the regulated community some breath-
for at least 15 straight days or saturated to the surface
ing room to develop wetlands of perhaps lesser impor-
for 21 consecutive days during the growing season,
tance. The problem lies in defining the criteria by
and the area would have to meet more stringent tech-
which to judge "high" or "low" value. The answer can-
nical requirements concerning the type and amount of
not be found in purely scientific criteria, since nearly
vegetation present. It also places responsibility on
all wetlands perform a number of useful functions, so
federal agencies to prove that land is a wetland and
final judgments must be subjective. For instance, is an
hence subject to regulation.
acre of bottomland hardwood swamp that is extremely
If adopted, major wetland destruction could easily
important for storing flood waters more or less valu-
result. For example, last year a group of government
able than an acre of bog that provides habitat for rare
and private scientists "field tested" the proposed
plant and animal species? If the decision is left to
guidelines in Washington state by reevaluating 22
today's policymakers, the targets of low-value ranking
recognized wetlands. Only four of the areas met the
are likely to be wetland types that frustrate develop-
more stringent criteria, and large sections of several
ment in particular regions.
important breeding sites for migratory birds fell out-
To sweeten the pot, the plan calls for developing a
side the definition. In other evaluations, government
nationwide "mitigation banking" program, under
scientists have projected trouble for many regulated
which some wetland development projects would be
areas that experience chronic dryness, including 75
permitted in return for restoring or creating similarly
percent of the non-tidal forested wetlands surrounding
sized wetlands at approved sites elsewhere. Indeed,
the Chesapeake Bay, half of New England's wetlands,
mitigation banking, done wisely and within the
and up to 90 percent of the bottomland forests of Ken-
framework of the Clean Water Act, holds potential for
SUMMER 1992
37
encouraging widespread restoration while directing
the vast majority of wetlands, and would encourage
development away from ecologically or financially ir-
immediate start-up of mitigation banking. It would
replaceable wetlands.
also delegate greater regulatory power over wetlands
But mitigation is not a guaranteed solution. Re-
to the states and remove the EPA from the regulation
storing and building wetlands is still in its infancy,
scene altogether. Although the Army Corps handles
and although there have been a number of successes,
the day-to-day administration of the wetland permit
many-in fact, most-projects have failed, according
program, the EPA's ability to veto permits (which has
to various federal and state studies. In addition, the
only happened 12 times) has made the agency the rela-
track record of developers who have promised or been
tive federal champion of wetlands protection.
required to carry out mitigation projects is dismal and
Fortunately, wetlands also have congressional
the record of enforcement efforts equally so. For ex-
supporters. One bill offered by Representative George
ample, in Florida, which for several years has required
Brown (D-Calif.) calls for the National Academy of
wetland mitigation, a study for a local water manage-
Sciences to conduct a study to determine the most ap-
ment district found that of more than 1,000 acres of
propriate method of delineating wetlands. This would
wetlands supposed to be created or restored, only
help take the battle of conflicting wetland manuals out
about half had actually received attention. Worse, most
of the political arena and put the matter back on scien-
of the 40 projects conducted were improperly de-
tific footing. The Bush administration, seeking a face-
signed and the wetlands stood no chance of fulfilling
saving escape from the "no net loss" quagmire, may
their intended functions.
well support such a study-at least until the November
The National Research Council (NRC) recog-
election. Indeed, it is a testament to the volatility of the
nized both the potential and problems of wetland
wetlands controversy that prospects for any bill either
mitigation in a December 1991 report. In calling for a
favoring or opposing regulation to pass before the
national restoration program, the report cited the need
elections are slim.
for research on both restored and undamaged wetlands
Wetland regulations are also under assault in the
to discover what it takes to create self-sustaining, low-
courts, where cases challenging the legitimacy of the
maintenance ecosystems. Until this occurs, the report
1989 manual and federal jurisdiction over certain wet-
advised that wetland restoration should not be used as
lands, particularly those that are not visibly wet, are
a way to offset or justify the destruction of other wet-
on the rise. There has been a sharp increase in recent
lands. Without proper regulatory safeguards, mitiga-
years in the number of so-called "taking" claims as
tion banking would be tantamount to selling wetland
well. Under the Constitution's Fifth Amendment, gov-
development permits in return for risky restoration ef-
ernment at any level cannot "take" private property
forts that may not be successful, if indeed they are ever
without paying just compensation. In this regard,
even attempted.
taking can occur through the limitation of property
rights, such as the denial of a development permit, if
Congress and courtrooms
the landowner is left with no economically viable use
The White House is not alone in its efforts to water
for the property.
down wetland regulations, though its singleminded-
Courts have historically upheld government's
ness in this quest is perhaps notable. In Congress,
right to restrict the use of private property in order to
legislators are seizing the opportunity afforded by the
protect the greater public good, without having to pay
upcoming reauthorization of the Clean Water Act to
the landowner an unwarranted sum of money. But
advance a variety of bills that would remove wetlands
several recent legal decisions suggest that the winds
from coverage or substantially weaken the act.
may be changing. In 1990, for example, Florida Rock
The leading candidate is ironically called The
Industries, owners of a phosphate mine near Miami,
Comprehensive Wetlands Conservation and Manage-
persuaded the U.S. Claims Court that the Army Corps'
ment Act of 1991, sponsored by Representative Jimmy
denial of a permit to dredge the remaining wetlands on
Hayes (D-La.). Among its provisions, the bill would
its property constituted a taking, despite arguments by
amend the Clean Water Act to cover only "high-value"
the EPA that the wetland loss and phosphate pollution
wetlands while lessening or removing protection for
could contaminate an underground aquifer that is the
38
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
WETLANDS
sole source of drinking water for
tection of wetlands will require ef-
the region. The court awarded the
forts on several fronts.
company a million-dollar restitu-
The government must
First, Congress must amend
tion based on the determination
clean its own house
the Clean Water Act to make
that one more phosphate mine in an
wetland protection an explicit pro-
area pockmarked by phosphate
by improving
vision; no longer can their well-
mines would make no significant
the management
being rest on reversible interpre-
pollution contribution and that
tations of the act's general language.
preventing development of the site
of wetlands
For example, isolated prairie pot-
as a mine left the owners with no
remaining options for the property.
on public property.
holes and other depressional wet-
lands that provide the vast majority
Even more troubling is a case
of migratory waterfowl habitat in the
now before the U.S. Supreme
United States and Canada are
Court that promises to have wide-
protected only if a court rules that the
spread ramifications for all environmental regulation.
wetland is involved in interstate commerce. Accord-
In Lucas V. South Carolina Coastal Commission, the
ing to a recent case, this is determined by the likelihood
owner of two beachfront lots argued that a state law
that a "reasonable bird" will stop at that spot. The bird
prohibiting development on fragile dunes, passed after
is pivotal because its presence is necessary to attract
he purchased the parcels, prevented all economically
hunters, who cross state lines to reach hunting places
viable use of the land. Despite his acknowledgement
and are therefore part of interstate commerce. Such
that the law indeed protected public safety, the plaintiff
legalistic contortions would be unnecessary if the law
asked for compensation equal to the difference be-
provided a more straightforward and reliable means to
tween the land's value as undeveloped and as devel-
protect these wetlands.
oped in its highest commercial form. If the court favors
Congress also must expand the scope of activities
the plaintiff, the implications for wetlands are clear:
covered by the act, going beyond current restrictions
Landowners everywhere will be encouraged to argue
on dredging and filling to include such harmful actions
that the denial of any dredge-and-fill permit will
as drainage, ditching, and the clearing of vegetation. In
prevent development, making them eligible for res-
the southeastern United States, timber companies are
titution at the property's highest commercial value.
increasingly clearing bottomland hardwood swamps
The effect could be chilling. Lacking sufficient
and similar areas of their wetlands vegetation and
budgets to cover numerous expensive restitutions, fed-
replacing it with commercial pine stands, an activity
eral, state, and particularly local governments may un-
generally considered by EPA "normal vicultural
derstandably become more hesitant about enforcing
practice" and therefore exempt from Clean Water Act
current land-use restrictions, let alone adopting tighter
regulation. Not only does this practice destroy wetland
regulations. Indeed, several bills have already been in-
functions and habitat, but by replacing wetland
troduced to Congress that call for the U.S. Attorney
vegetation with nonwetland vegetation, it can dis-
General's office to scrutinize federal permit decisions
qualify them from designation as wetlands under the
and various other environmental regulatory actions for
law. Draining wetlands for agricultural use is already
potential taking violations. But the temptation to rein
discouraged to a significant degree by economic sanc-
in wetland regulations must be resisted. Wetlands are
tions in the 1985 and 1990 Farm Bills, but adding
simply too critical, and Congress must face the chal-
specific regulations to the Clean Water Act would pro-
lenge of enacting creative measures that honor land-
vide a better safeguard in the long run.
owners' legitimate rights while ensuring the security
Such expanded coverage is called for in the Wet-
of wetlands.
lands Reform Act of 1992, proposed by Repre-
sentative Don Edwards (D-Calif.). Additional impetus
The road ahead
comes from a legal settlement early this year between
Given the widespread nature of the threats to wetlands,
the Army Corps and the National Wildlife Federation,
both ecologically and politically, improving the pro-
under which the Corps must incorporate into its wet-
SUMMER 1992
39
land permit program various other activities, including
riculture (USDA) has taken the most notable steps in
excavation, ditching, and vegetation clearing, where
developing incentive programs. Beyond its well-es-
these activities result in deposits of fill material into
tablished Swampbuster provisions, for example, the
the wetland. In fact, this stands as one of the few vic-
department this year inaugurated the Wetlands
tories for wetlands proponents this season-though it
Reserve Program, which offers direct payments and
too may be short-lived if countersuits against the set-
cost-sharing assistance to farmers who put their wet-
tlement prevail.
lands into protected easements and conduct restora-
Second, the federal government must clean its
tions of those lands. Started as an eight-state pilot pro-
own house by improving the management of wetlands
gram, it plans to enroll some 1 million wetland acres
located on public property, which comprise more than
over the next five years. The Water Bank Program
one quarter of all wetlands in the contiguous 48 states.
provides annual payments and cost-sharing funds to
These resources continue to be lost to government-
farmers who conduct efforts to improve waterfowl
sanctioned and -subsidized activities such as timber
habitat on their lands, including restoration of inland
harvesting, mining, and grazing, largely in the western
wetlands and adjacent uplands. The USDA's Agricul-
states, where most permitted activities on public lands
tural Conservation Program, established in 1936 to
occur. Although federal agencies such as the Forest
prevent future Dust Bowls, provides cost-sharing for
Service, National Park Service, Bureau of Land Man-
conservation practices that include rehabilitation or
agement, and Bureau of Reclamation have recently
creation of shallow-water areas for wildlife. For these
begun to accept wetlands protection as an official
and other existing programs to fully realize their
mandate, practices harmful to wetlands persist.
potential for protecting wetlands, however, USDA
The agencies can follow the example of the Army
will have to launch an aggressive education campaign
Corps. Not long ago, the Corps would have been cited
to overcome farmers' traditional animosity toward
as a major destroyer of wetlands. But in 1991 the Corps
wetlands and wetlands regulation.
made wetland protection and "no net loss" its explicit
Education programs will play a key role elsewhere
mandate, and has begun undoing some of the damage
as well. Until wetlands are widely regarded as benefi-
of decades past. Most visible is a large-scale project to
cial, too many landowners will continue to view them
"unstraighten" the Kissimmee River in Florida that
as impediments to "higher and better use" of property.
was so expensively straightened 20 years ago, with
Urban wetlands, in particular, suffer under the misper-
disastrous results for regional wetlands including the
ception of being useless terrain, especially since so
Everglades. Agencies may encounter considerable
many are now degraded and less aesthetically pleas-
resistance from various private interest groups who
ing. The EPA is allocating increasing funds to educa-
now hold permits to use public lands, but at least they
tion and outreach efforts, a trend that should be dupli-
will not face the thorny problems associated with the
cated in other agencies. And conservation groups seem
taking of private property.
especially well suited to proselytizing with the good
Third, regulatory modifications must be comple-
news concerning wetlands.
mented by aggressive government and private efforts
Environmental organizations, which have lobbied
to encourage landowners to protect their wetlands
and litigated on behalf of wetlands protection, can also
voluntarily. New and expanded financial incentive
participate in public education; and private land trusts,
programs can make it economically attractive for land-
which now number more than 900 in the United States,
owners to protect wetlands, while technical assistance
can help directly. Through acquisition of land and en-
programs can provide landowners with the skills need-
couragement of private-landowner stewardship, as
ed to best manage or restore their wetlands. Public
well as through a variety of conservation options such
agencies and conservation groups should also actively
as easements, purchase of development rights, or
promote the tax advantages, enacted in 1986 but fre-
donations, land trusts work to preserve natural areas.
quently overlooked, of creating a conservation ease-
Most land trusts offer private landowners technical,
ment covering a wetland and donating the easement to
legal, and financial assistance in choosing conserva-
a qualifying charitable or conservation organization.
tion options, many of which offer the owners financial
At the federal level, the U.S. Department of Ag-
benefits for conserving wetlands.
40
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
WETLANDS
Goals for private wetlands stewardship must also
wetland protection could well provide impetus for
be appropriately broad, stressing preservation of
strengthening the Clean Water Act and for guiding
diverse ecosystems and biodiversity. Some private in-
land-use decisions and development away from wet-
itiatives-such as those by Ducks Unlimited, which
land destruction. Recalcitrant landowners also may be
like the Fish and Wildlife Service devotes most of its
persuaded by the economic merits of wetland conser-
resources to the restoration of duck-breeding habitat-
vation when less tangible values fail to appeal. But
have come under attack for their limited priorities. The
until we can devise a sound and persuasive model for
NRC report, for example, recommends that we "give
calculating wetlands' true worth, wetlands are likely to
whole-ecosystem restoration and restoration for non-
continue disappearing at a dramatic rate, taking their
game species priority over restoration to support game
unique values and contributions with them.
species." Because so much federal and private money
for wetlands restoration is raised through duck hunting
and related activities, there will always be public pres-
sure to devote scarce resources to restoration of duck
Recommended reading
habitat. But we should remember that many wetlands
Environmental Defense Fund, World Wildlife Fund,
visitors come to see nongame species or to cherish the
How Wet is a Wetland? The Impacts of the Pro-
aesthetic values of wetlands. Supporting research to
posed Revisions to the Federal Wetlands Delinea-
better document the extent of these activities would
tion Manual. New York: Environmental Defense
help to justify broader-based restoration and protec-
Fund, 1992.
tion policies.
J. Kusler, Our National Wetlands Heritage. Wash-
Finally, additional research is needed to derive
ington, D.C.: Environmental Law Institute, 1986.
ways of more accurately quantifying the numerous
M. McQueen, "Environmental Protection, Property
values that wetlands provide. Indeed, part of the
Rights, and the Takings Issue: When Does a
reason why wetlands continue to suffer is that their
Regulation Go Too Far?" Special Report of Land
benefits, though more widely recognized in recent
Letter, vol. 11, no. 9 (March 20, 1992). Wash-
years, are difficult to quantify and hence are under-
ington, D.C.: The Conservation Fund.
represented in land-use or public-policy decisions
National Research Council, Restoration of Aquatic
based on cost/benefit analyses. For example, a proposed
Ecosystems; Science, Technology, and Public
housing development may add clear-cut value to a
Policy. Washington, D.C.: National Academy
community's economic ledger, whereas to many citi-
Press, 1992.
zens and politicians a swamp is just an unproductive
W. Niering, Wetlands of North America. Charlottes-
tract of land. Moreover, many of the benefits of wet-
ville, Va.: Thomasson-Grant, Inc., 1991.
lands accrue to the general public-or to wildlife-
N. Yost, "Wetlands: Through Murky Waters,"
while the costs of preservation are often borne by in-
Newsletter of the National Association of Environ-
dividual property owners in terms of lost revenue
mental Professionals, vol. 17, no. 2 (May 1992).
potential.
Washington, D.C.: National Association of En-
Wider recognition of the economic importance of
vironmental Professionals.
SUMMER 1992
41
JAMES FLYNN
ROGER KASPERSON
HOWARD KUNREUTHER
PAUL SLOVIC
Time to Rethink
Nuclear Waste Storage
The government
must enlist the public
as an ally
The 35-year effort to find a per-
in its efforts to find a
the nuclear power industry-have
manent repository for the nation's
permanent repository.
pressed for a solution, not only be-
high-level radioactive nuclear waste
cause they are eager to get rid of the
is on the verge of collapse. Al-
wastes piling up next to their reac-
though most scientific experts are
tors but also because they believe
convinced that such a facility-
that the future of nuclear power is
slated for a site deep in Yucca Mountain, Nevada,
grim without an effective management program.
about 90 miles north of Las Vegas-would pose lit-
Meanwhile, U.S. officials, in particular the Depart-
tle risk to public health or the environment, vehement
ment of Energy (DOE), the repository developer, have
public opposition has blocked any significant
plunged ahead, slighting uncertainties and putting
progress.
technical, scheduling, and cost considerations above
Most experts have always believed that the many
all others.
complex technical problems of permanent nuclear
But neither federal nor nuclear-industry officials
waste storage-formidable as they are-could even-
have ever adequately understood or dealt with the
tually be solved. The major backers of a repository-
fundamental cause of the current impasse: the depth of
public concern about the siting of a nuclear waste
repository. These concerns have been heightened by
pervasive distrust of both Congress and DOE, built up
James Flynn is senior researcher with Decision Research, a
during three decades of ill-fated attempts to dictate a
nonprofit research institute in Eugene, Oregon. Roger Kasperson
solution.
is professor of government and geography and an associate of the
Center for Technology, Environment, and Development
Although large amounts of money have been
(CENTED) at Clark University. Howard Kunreuther is professor
poured into the scientific and engineering aspects of
of decision sciences, insurance, and public policy and manage-
high-level radioactive waste disposal, virtually noth-
ment and director of the Risk and Decision Processes Center at
ing has been done to actively enlist the public in the
the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. Paul Slovic is
siting process or to collaborate with the public in forg-
president of Decision Research and professor of psychology at
the University of Oregon. All four authors have conducted studies
ing a solution. Social acceptability has always taken a
for the Nevada Nuclear Waste Project Office.
back seat to technical concerns. But until both are put
42
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
NUCLEAR WASTE
on an equal footing, no solution will be possible. In-
years or more and have proved safe. DOE eventually
deed, given the levels of public opposition and distrust,
wants to ship this waste to a centralized storage depot
Congress should scrap the current program and recon-
called a monitored retrievable storage (MRS) facility.
sider the options.
DOE argues that, among other things, an MRS facility
No compelling reason currently exists for siting a
is needed to consolidate the wastes for greater efficien-
permanent repository at an early date. Technology
cy in handling, storage, transportation, and eventual
developed in the past decade, especially dry-cask
permanent disposal. Site selection for such a facility
storage, provides assurance that wastes from commer-
faces the same intense public scrutiny as the proposed
cial reactors can be stored safely for a lengthy period at
Yucca Mountain repository. In 1987, DOE was forced
current sites. In the longer term, reprocessing may
to abandon a proposed MRS site in Oak Ridge, Ten-
reduce the volume of high-level wastes; storage else-
nessee, after strong public opposition and concern
where than in a geological repository may prove at-
among state officials over potential adverse economic
tractive; and experimental techniques such as trans-
effects.
mutation-aimed at radically reducing the amount of
The problems of handling spent fuel pale in com-
time that wastes remain highly radioactive-could
parison with the waste problems at nuclear weapons
help solve the problem.
production facilities. DOE has been embarrassed by
In the meantime, the United States must begin a
huge leaks of radioactive wastes and other difficulties
long-term effort to engage the public in a process of
at its plants at Hanford, Washington; Rocky Flats,
active collaboration. In doing so, the United States has
Colorado; and elsewhere. The storage and cleanup
much to learn from other countries, where innovative
problems are considered so difficult and expensive
approaches and techniques have begun to establish
that some experts have argued that certain areas of
public confidence.
facilities such as Hanford should be permanently cor-
doned off. Mismanagement of the waste situation at
The scope of the hazard
the weapons plants has done much to discredit DOE's
High-level radioactive waste includes two major com-
role in siting a permanent civilian repository.
ponents: spent fuel from reactors at nuclear power
Whatever the difficulties posed by temporary
plants and the various byproducts of nuclear weapons
storage, they are dwarfed by the immense challenges
production. Although spent fuel accounts for less than
involved in siting a permanent repository. The U.S.
one percent of the volume of all the high- and low-
Environmental Protection Agency, charged by Con-
level radioactive wastes generated in the United
gress with setting performance standards, has told
States, it produces 95 percent of the radioactivity.
DOE that it must provide assurances that human and
Some of its radioisotopes pose grave dangers for
environmental exposure to radioactive elements will
hundreds, even thousands of years. For instance, the
not exceed stringent standards for 10,000 years. This
half-life (the time required for half the original
long period-twice that of recorded human history-
radioactivity to decay) of plutonium-239 is 24,400
creates serious uncertainties in every area of scientific
years.
study. If a 10,000-year warranty is necessary, no won-
The amount of spent fuel is growing rapidly. The
der the public has grave doubts about the reliability of
nation's 110 commercial nuclear reactors, located at
a permanent repository.
72 sites mostly east of the Mississippi River, will have
produced about 40,000 metric tons of high-level waste
The public's nuclear dread
by the year 2000 and a combined total of about
Although it is hardly news that the public is opposed to
105,000 metric tons during their operating lives. (If it
the siting of radioactive waste dumps, what is startling
could be consolidated, 40,000 metric tons of waste
is the depth of public fear and revulsion. The public's
would fit in a 15-foot-high warehouse the size of a
visceral horror of all things nuclear has never been
football field.)
adequately understood by the government or the
Currently, most of this spent fuel is being stored
nuclear power industry, which have tended to dismiss
at reactor sites in specially designed cooling ponds,
such concerns as irrational and rooted in mispercep-
which have been in operation at some plants for 30
tion and misinformation.
SUMMER 1992
43
The extent of these fears can be
1973, and efforts since then to ex-
seen in a study (in which two of the
amine possible sites in a dozen
authors of this article were in-
No compelling
other states never got beyond the
volved) that asked people to pro-
vide the words, thoughts, or images
reason currently
preliminary screening stage.
DOE's failure to make any sig-
that came to mind when they heard
exists for siting a
nificant progress led Congress to
the phrase, "underground nuclear
waste repository." The four most
permanent repository
pass the Nuclear Waste Policy Act
of 1982, signed into law by Presi-
frequent single associations were
at an early date.
dent Reagan on January 7, 1983.
dangerous, danger, death, and pol-
Among other things, the act called
lution. In addition, there were a
for the investigation of multiple
large number of images referring to
possible sites and, for the first time,
war, annihilation, weapons, and things military. In
extensive public participation in the siting process.
short, the responses revealed pervasive dread, revul-
Congress and the nuclear industry, however, soon
sion, and anger.
lost patience with the inevitable delays involved in
Other perception problems exist as well. For in-
such an open process. In late December 1987, in a
stance, surveys of residents of southern California,
curious miscalculation intended to resurrect the failing
Nevada, and the nation as a whole found that people
waste-disposal effort, Congress approved major
believe that the state where a repository is sited could
amendments to the Nuclear Waste Policy Act. Without
be stigmatized as a "nuclear dump state," deterring
formal hearing, discussion, or debate-the revisions
others from moving to the state, visiting as tourists or
were attached to an appropriations bill-Congress
convention-goers, or investing money there. For
named Yucca Mountain as the sole site to be inves-
Nevada in particular, which is almost wholly depend-
tigated, even though only rudimentary studies had
ent upon tourism for its economic wellbeing, the
been completed.
prospect of stigmatization is a serious concern.
Technical, economic, and political reasons were
Two further examples illustrate the public's ex-
cited for choosing Nevada. Congress considered the
treme sensitivity to the siting of a nuclear waste fa-
barren, remote Yucca Mountain site technically ac-
cility. In 1986, DOE and Congress, after selecting
ceptable and cheaper to develop than sites being con-
seven states for preliminary siting studies, were forced
sidered in Texas and Washington. In addition, it would
to abandon work on a possible second permanent
be less expensive to study only one site. Moreover,
repository, to be built in the eastern United States after
Congress wanted to put the project back on a fast-track
the first repository was filled. Even the remote pos-
schedule to appease the nuclear industry. Most naive-
sibility that their communities might be selected
ly, Congress thought that opposition in Nevada might
several decades in the future led unhappy residents to
be less than elsewhere.
protest. Second, in March of 1991, residents in sparse-
Nevadans, of course, reacted to the subverting of
ly populated Grant County, North Dakota, voted all
the integrity of the siting process with outrage-an
three county commissioners out of office in a recall
anger and opposition that has continued to build since
election after officials applied for a $100,000 grant to
the 1987 decision. Six major surveys of Nevada resi-
study the possibility of hosting an MRS facility. The
dents between 1987 and 1991 have recorded a consis-
public was not mollified by the fact that acceptance of
tent level of 75 to 80 percent opposition to the project.
the money did not in any way entail future obligation.
Nevadans are particularly irate because the state does
not have a commercial nuclear reactor and because it
The rocky road to stalemate
already hosts a low-level waste facility and a site for
More than three decades of ill-fated DOE efforts to
testing nuclear weapons.
find a repository site have engendered a huge amount
Since the 1987 decision to select Yucca Mountain,
of public distrust. A highly publicized attempt to in-
DOE has continued to stumble in its management of
vestigate an abandoned salt mine in Lyons, Kansas, as
the high-level nuclear waste program. The agency's
a permanent site ended in embarrassment for DOE in
overall approach-its excessive concern with techni-
44
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
NUCLEAR WASTE
cal considerations, scheduling, and cost-was severe-
United States. They have rejected a strategy of early
ly criticized in a 1990 report by the Board on Radioac-
permanent waste disposal, and they have placed con-
tive Waste Management of the National Research
siderations of equity, fairness, and social acceptability
Council (NRC). The board chastised DOE for its in-
on an equal footing with technical goals.
sistence on a rigid schedule, for trying to write detailed
In Sweden, the successful siting and development
regulations before all data are in, and for its "scientifi-
of a central interim storage facility has provided long-
cally unsound" use of geophysical computer models to
term storage capacity for spent fuel, enabling the search
assess long-term isolation of nuclear wastes. "DOE
for a permanent disposal site to proceed deliberately
managers," the board said, "tend to feel compelled to
and with more time for resolving technical uncertain-
do things perfectly the first time, rather than to make
ties and addressing social and political issues. The
changes in concept and design as unexpected geologi-
Swedes have located the interim facility adjacent to an
cal features are encountered and as scientific under-
existing reactor, in recognition that communities with
standing develops." This approach, the board said, was
the experience of hosting a nuclear plant tend to be
particularly perilous given the 10,000-year safety re-
more willing to accept waste storage facilities.
quirement, adding that, "a policy that promises to an-
None of the European countries is in a hurry to find
ticipate every conceivable problem or assumes that
a permanent disposal site. Sweden expects to keep its
science will shortly provide all the answers is bound to
spent fuel in temporary storage for at least 40 years and
fail." The board recommended a flexible approach
will not choose a repository site until 2003-2006.
based on the established principle, used in commercial
France intends to spend at least 15 years studying the
mining and underground construction, of "design (and
suitability of various sites before making a recommen-
improve the design) as you go."
dation. Germany and Great Britain also envision
The NRC board also assailed DOE for failing to
lengthy storage of wastes before emplacement in a re-
recognize that "safety is in part a social judgment, not
pository. Even Canada, which lacks a centralized in-
just a technical one." Technical analyses can help pro-
terim storage facility, does not intend to recommend a
vide answers to the question of how safe is safe
site until the public has accepted the disposal concept.
enough, but since safety cannot be 100 percent guaran-
In responding to the difficult social acceptability
teed, citizens must ultimately make the decision. In-
issues, Congress and DOE could learn much from the
stead of trying to provide absolute guarantees, the
experiences of France and Sweden. For a long time,
board said, DOE must find ways "to assure the public
France, with 51 nuclear plants providing about 70 per-
that the likelihood of serious unforeseen events
cent of the nation's electricity, pursued a hardball
(serious enough to cause catastrophic failure in the
strategy in which safety was considered to be a "prob-
long term) is minimal, and that the consequences of
lem of techniques" and site selection a matter for ex-
such events will be limited. These assurances rest on
perts. The government fiercely resisted public opposi-
the credible application of general principles, rather
tion. But as public concern mounted, the government,
than a reliance on detailed predictions." Unfortunate-
finally recognizing that any solution ultimately must
ly, DOE has not adequately responded to this advice,
be politically sound and workable, put a moratorium
and, given its regulatory requirements for permitting
on disposal and restricted the number of sites that
and licensing, may not be able to.
would be considered. Although a national debate
promised by President Mitterand has yet to take place,
Lessons from abroad
a nuclear waste negotiator has been appointed to work
Difficulties in siting a high-level waste repository are
with potential host communities and find prospective
not, of course, restricted to the United States. In Eu-
sites for the construction of two underground testing
rope, Canada, and Japan, there has often been fierce
laboratories. Only after lengthy characterization and
public opposition. Yet all are making efforts to defuse
assessment will one of the sites be recommended to the
public anger, and Sweden has even managed to build a
French parliament, which will then make a broad-
certain level of public confidence.
based political decision on disposal and legislate the
The Europeans in particular are making progress
key features of repository design.
because they have done two things differently than the
Sweden, with 45 to 50 percent of its electricity
SUMMER 1992
45
generated by 12 nuclear power
voluntary acceptance by the host
plants, has made an aggressive ef-
province of a repository; specifi-
fort from the beginning to involve
No community
cally, the government has deter-
the public and critics through the
well-established Swedish "remiss
should be forced to
mined that it will not attempt to
override a federal-provincial dead-
process." This process involves the
accept a repository
lock.
wide dissemination of a proposed
public policy to diverse stake-
against its will.
The European experience dem-
onstrates that the United States
holders in Swedish society who
is becoming increasingly isolated
evaluate and comment on the pro-
in its attempt to override, rather
posal in writing. The sponsors are
than respond to, state and local con-
then responsible for responding in writing to all the
cerns. To have any prospect of success, the United
comments and often make modifications designed to
States must develop approaches that are socially ac-
shape a broad national consensus. In nuclear policy
ceptable as well as technically sound, collaborative
matters, the public is regarded as the ultimate judge.
rather than preemptive, and predicated on persuasion
In addition, the radioactive waste program has been
and negotiation rather than coercion.
subjected to a special review process involving experts
from around the world. The Swedish approach reflects
Toward a new beginning
a determination to accommodate rather than override
The current U.S. repository siting program does not
local concerns and to fashion a national consensus on
begin to satisfy these basic principles; indeed, it is
nuclear waste disposal within which siting efforts can
often in conflict with them. The level of trust needed to
proceed.
conduct a siting process free of coercion does not exist.
Perhaps most important in the Swedish approach
Scientists disagree about the suitability of the Yucca
is its strong sensitivity to issues involving not only the
Mountain site and about the appropriate criteria for
current generation but the wellbeing of future ones as
licensing and constructing a repository. DOE denies
well. For instance, the Swedes have decided that the
that stigmatization is a possibility in Nevada and
repository should be designed so that surveillance and
believes-along with the nuclear industry-that such
maintenance will not be required to ensure safety, yet
fears are irrational. No current avenues exist to resolve
changes can be made if more suitable methods of
these disagreements, except through court suits.
waste disposal become available. They have also
The United States must take dramatic action to es-
elevated safety concerns above cost cutting. Such steps
tablish a workable process for siting nuclear waste
have helped build public support. Indeed, recent
repositories. Such a process can be built on the ex-
opinion polls indicate overwhelming support for
perience of other countries and on the work of a group
radioactive waste disposal within Sweden rather than
of researchers and practitioners (including the authors
export abroad. There even appears to be considerable
of this article) who have developed a "facility siting
support for siting a repository in one's own region.
credo" set of principles aimed at overcoming nega-
Other countries also are experimenting with new
tive reactions and developing greater trust. Though
approaches to building social acceptance. In Germany,
many elements are needed to establish a process that
the public can tour the site of the proposed waste
works, three are particularly crucial:
repository at Gorleben and read any document relating
to the project. France plans extensive negotiations
Rethink the waste solution. Congress should place
with prospective host communities to resolve siting
a moratorium on the existing program and begin work
conflicts and will offer an "image loss" tax subsidy of
on new legislation. The current deadline of 2010 for
$11 million per year to communities accepting even
beginning operation of a repository should be
the underground test facilities. Substantial economic
removed. The legal requirement that an interim
incentives, such as preferential hiring and purchasing
storage facility cannot be licensed until a permanent
and regional development assistance, also will be of-
repository is developed should be rescinded. In this
fered. Canada has committed itself to negotiation and
way a search for temporary facilities can proceed
46
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
NUCLEAR WASTE
while technical studies of the problems involved in
process for a monitored retrievable storage facility,
developing a permanent repository continue.
which is being designed under the assumption that a
Scientific studies should, of course, be continued.
repository will be built at Yucca Mountain. David
Alternative technologies, such as transmutation and
Leroy, appointed as the first U.S. Nuclear Waste
seabed disposal, should be evaluated. Serious efforts
Negotiator in August 1990, and charged with finding
should be devoted to development of engineered mul-
an MRS site, has taken a number of steps designed to
tibarrier systems. More studies of various media for
establish an open and credible dialogue between inter-
deep geological disposal, such as salt, clay, or rock,
ested communities and the federal government. His
should be conducted in order to better understand the
office has produced a set of materials that explain the
comparative advantages and shortcomings of these
relevant technical and scientific issues in a format that
options. Additional technical cooperation with other
is accessible and comprehensible to a general
countries in these areas and others should be em-
audience.
phasized and an international review of U.S. ap-
Leroy, a former attorney general and lieutenant
proaches should be considered.
governor of Idaho, is setting a new standard for siting
waste disposal facilities by following two basic prin-
Use a voluntary siting process. It is unwise to at-
ciples that enable the public to play an active role in the
tempt to locate either a temporary or permanent
process. First, he maintains that there are no irrelevant
facility for radioactive wastes without the support of
issues. Anything that concerns citizens is important.
the host community and state. Indeed, Congress
Second, all items of a siting proposal are negotiable,
should mandate that no community be forced to accept
including the choice of technology, how a facility is
a repository against its will and then establish a broad-
operated and controlled and by whom, and the size and
based participatory process as a means of developing
scope of any compensation or benefits package.
greater trust. The public and representatives of all af-
Leroy's new strategy is already bearing some fruit.
fected parties should participate in all stages of the
As of May 1992, planning grants of $100,000 had been
siting and development process. Where direct par-
made to 19 communities or Indian tribes that ex-
ticipation is impractical, public views can be solicited
pressed a serious interest in exploring the possibility of
through interviews, surveys, or special advisory com-
hosting a MRS facility. These funds are for feasibility
mittees. Interested and affected parties should have a
studies, public information efforts, and other kinds of
full opportunity, supported with resources provided by
public outreach activities. Leroy has made it clear that
the federal government, to review site selection
acceptance of a grant does not imply a commitment to
criteria, identify research issues and data collection
accept an MRS facility; the prospective host can ter-
needs, and critique the findings and criteria on which
minate the process at any time, as five of the com-
siting decisions are based.
munities have done. One Indian tribe, however, has
A compensation package could be negotiated to
completed the initial planning activities and is now un-
address potential stigma effects, perhaps by funding
dertaking a more detailed evaluation of the proposed
local facilities, projects, and improvements that would
MRS facility.
offset any potential adverse impacts. Procedures to
The encouraging response to the nuclear waste
make sure that the facility meets safety, health, and en-
negotiator's new strategy indicates that a voluntary
vironmental standards must be acceptable to com-
siting process has some promise. But it is too early to
munities and states as well as to the facility developers
draw any conclusions and a number of important
and their licensing agencies. Beyond this, mitigation
questions must be answered. What process should be
for unexpected problems and accidents, such as a
followed if an MRS site is not found using a voluntary
repository failure, should be provided. Different com-
approach? How will the government choose if more
pensation and mitigation packages should apply to
than one community, region, or Indian tribe decides
each potential site. For example, in areas dependent on
that it wants to host the MRS? How much authority
tourism, such as Nevada, the potential for stigmatiza-
and control will host communities and states be al-
tion needs particular attention.
lowed? What limits will the federal government want
A homegrown model can be found in the siting
to place on liability, compensation, and mitigation ef-
SUMMER 1992
47
forts? Can the federal government provide assurances
lem of permanent disposal of high-level radioactive
as to just how temporary a MRS facility will be? Will
waste. In order to gain public approval, however, a fair
a negotiated process be given the time and support
and equitable siting process is absolutely essential.
needed to provide a fair test of the voluntary option?
Only through a long-term process of building public
trust and deeply engaging potentially affected com-
Keep multiple options open. It is not a good idea
munities in the planning process will we be able to
to have just one possible location for a permanent
create a viable program and achieve satisfactory
facility, even at the final stage of the selection process.
solutions.
Cultivating several options is particularly crucial in
the case of a first-ever repository with its great uncer-
tainties and potential for public opposition. Rather
Recommended reading
than trying to force compliance, future efforts should
L. Carter, Nuclear Imperatives and Public Trust:
seek volunteers from several different regions. Com-
Dealing with Radioactive Waste. Washington,
petition between potential host communities will
D.C.: Resources for the Future, 1987.
moderate benefit demands. At the same time, it will
B. Cook, J.L. Emel, and Roger E. Kasperson, "Com-
tell the facility developers what the range of costs will
mon Fears or Uncommon Mistrust: European and
really be for a volunteer community and state. Only
North American Nuclear Waste Problems," Policy
when the affected public feels that there is more to lose
Studies Review (forthcoming 1992).
by not having the facility than by becoming the host
Doug Easterling and Howard Kunreuther, The Dilem-
location will an acceptable solution be at hand.
ma of Siting a Nuclear Waste Repository. Boston,
Mass.: Kluwer, forthcoming, 1992.
New legislation is needed to get the national waste
James Flynn, William Burns, C. K. Mertz, and Paul
program on track. In addition to requiring that the
Slovic, "Trust as a Determinant of Opposition to a
siting process be completely voluntary, Congress
High-Level Radioactive Waste Repository:
should take two major steps. First, the management of
Analysis of a Structural Model," Risk Analysis 12,
military wastes should be separated from the spent fuel
no. 3 (September 1992): 417-429.
and civilian wastes program. DOE's problems at the
G. Jacob, Site Unseen: The Politics of Siting a Nuclear
nuclear weapons production plants have severely
Waste Repository. Pittsburgh, Pa.: University of
compromised its credibility and its efforts to solve the
Pittsburgh Press, 1990.
civilian waste problem. In addition, the tasks involved
Roger Kasperson, D. Golding, and S. Tuler, "Siting
in cleaning up existing contaminated sites are vastly
Hazardous Facilities and Communicating Risks
different from those of managing a complicated siting
Under Conditions of High Social Distrust," Jour-
and development process for storing wastes. Given
nal of Social Issues (1992, in press).
DOE's record of management failures, it is unlikely
National Research Council, Commission on Geos-
that it will ever be able to gain public support for a
ciences Environment and Resources, Rethinking
civilian waste program. This argues strongly for the
High-Level Radioactive Waste Disposal: A Posi-
second major step: Congress should establish a new
tion Statement of the Board on Radioactive Waste
agency or organization to operate the civilian waste
Management. Washington, D.C.: National
program.
Academy Press, 1990.
The U.S. Nuclear Waste Negotiator could play an
Nuclear Waste Technical Review Board, Third Report
important role in assisting a new federal effort. An
to the U.S. Congress and the U.S. Secretary of
honest, objective broker is badly needed to help
Energy. Washington, D.C., 1991.
federal program managers communicate and negotiate
Paul Slovic, "Perception of Risk," Science (April 17,
with communities and states. The independence that
1987): 280-285.
David Leroy has established would provide a valuable
Paul Slovic, James Flynn, and Mark Layman, "Per-
contribution to a new start on solving the storage
ceived Risk, Trust, and the Politics of Nuclear
problems.
Waste," Science (December 13, 1991): 1603-
Obviously, there is no simple solution to the prob-
1607.
48
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Getting
ISSUES IN FOCUS
Down
National Academy of Sciences
to
National Academy of Engineering
Institute of Medicine
Business
ISSUES IN FOCUS
presents a forum for the
in-depth exploration of
a selected public policy topic
over the course of several
issues. Support for ISSUES
IN FOCUS is provided by the
Alfred P. Sloan Foundation,
Siemens Corporation, CIBA-
GEIGY Corporation, and
Xerox Corporation.
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
SIEMENS
1847. That was then.
Werner Siemens opens his first factory, a small shop to manufacture the world's
most advanced telegraph.
©
Siemens Corporation 1992.
1992. This is now.
All across America, more than 60 Siemens manufacturing and assembly plants are
turning out an astonishing variety of high-tech electronic and electrical products with
quality American industry can count on. Over 15,000 Siemens U.S. employees have
manufacturing jobs in these plants, and are helping to build products in a wide range
of fields, including energy, communications, automotive, medical and automation
technology. In fact, 13% of Siemens' $4.5 billion annual sales are derived from
exports from these factories to the rest of the world. Siemens. Precision Thinking.
For more information, write for Siemens '92. Box 8003MG, Trenton, New Jersey 08650.
Automation
Automotive Electronics
Electronic Components
Energy
Information Systems
Lighting Systems
Medical Systems
Power Generation
Telecommunications
Transportation
DANIEL F. BURTON, Jr.
A New Model for
U.S. Innovation
ince 1990, the U.S. Department
Although there is growing recognition
S
of Commerce, the Department
that the United States needs to establish a
of Defense (DOD), the White
strong position in critical technologies, no
House Office of Science and
one has clearly stated just what has to be
Technology Policy, the private-
done. Some misinterpret the need for a new
sector Council on Competitive-
technology policy as a call for a heavy-
he crucial
ness, and other groups have released lists of
handed industrial policy that would have the
technologies that are critical to America's fu-
government choose technological winners
question is not
ture. The lists are strikingly similar. And the
and losers. Technology policy, however, does
which technologies
country has indeed experienced a dramatic
not equal industrial policy.
loss of leadership in many of the technolo-
The U.S. government has a long tradi-
are critical, but
gies cited. But the issue goes deeper than our
tion of funding national technology initia-
performance in individual technologies. The
tives, from the Manhattan Project to the
which policies will
United States will not be able to ensure tech-
Human Genome Initiative. In 1990 alone,
nological leadership simply by focusing more
the National Science Foundation (NSF)
stimulate progress
R&D on specific areas; it must reassess its
funded about 17,000 research projects whose
in all areas.
entire approach to innovation. Many of the
value was determined on the basis of the
assumptions underlying the U.S. innovation
peer review system, and the National Insti-
system are out of touch with the demands of
tutes of Health provided about 34,000 re-
today's international marketplace, and the
search grants. In other words, the govern-
policies based on them must be redirected.
ment is already funding several hundred new
R&D projects per day. The key policy ques-
Daniel F. Burton, Jr., is executive vice president of
tion is whether the government adequately
the Council on Competitiveness, a private, nonprofit
takes into account competitiveness concerns
advocacy organization comprised of 150 CEOs from
in making these funding decisions. There is
industry, academia, and labor that is dedicated to im-
proving the competitiveness of U.S. companies and
a growing consensus among industry leaders
workers in world markets.
that it does not.
52
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
ISSUES IN FOCUS
U.S. efforts to promote science and tech-
ingly irrelevant, because it remains based on
nology are incorporated in a very specific
a set of seven anachronistic assumptions that
set of policies that are based on a simple
over time have congealed into policy myths:
model of scientific and technological
Assumption 1. Government R&D pro-
progress that was developed in the aftermath
grams, especially those for defense, drive
of World War II. In this model, the govern-
leading-edge technology. This assumption
ment supports basic research that provides
made sense during the early postwar era,
the foundation for new ideas and also sup-
when government technology programs in
ports applied research and development to
areas such semiconductors and computers
support specialized national missions such
paved the way for civilian applications by
as security and space exploration. In this
sponsoring ambitious R&D projects and pro-
way, research push is happily married to de-
viding early demand for new technology. As
mand pull. Moreover, industry automatically
a result, government policymakers began to
benefits since the knowledge generated by
think in terms of a spinoff model of innova-
federal R&D can be used to develop new
tion, in which government programs would
commercial products and technologies.
coincidentally help industry.
This model of innovation served the
The spinoff model, however, works only
United States well during the postwar pe-
if government technology is ahead of any-
riod. The recent and rapid rise of interna-
thing the private sector has to offer. If com-
tional economic competition, however,
mercial technology is more advanced, then
makes it increasingly irrelevant to market
the government will end up borrowing tech-
realities. The basic problem is that the tra-
nology from industry, which is exactly what
ditional model treats industrial technology
is happening today. The private sector, not
as an incidental dividend of government
the government, is now in the driver's seat
R&D missions, rather than as the primary
in more and more technologies. For example,
objective. In contrast, Japanese and German
the camcorder contains some electronic and
science and technology policies are designed
optical technology that is more sophisticated
to systematically promote the industrial ap-
than that found in virtually any government
plication and diffusion of technology.
hardware, even the military's.
To sustain a competitive edge in the
The spinoff model also assumes that
twenty-first century, we must understand the
government and civilian technology cultures
false assumptions that underlie the traditional
are similar. This is less and less the case, es-
model, replace them with relevant assump-
pecially with defense. Even when U.S. mili-
tions that are true to the international mar-
tary technology is very advanced, the Byzan-
ketplace, and establish a set of new, vital, and
tine policies that have grown up around the
effective policies that will foster a dynamic al-
defense industry during the past 50 years
liance between government and industry.
make much of it unsuited to commercial use.
U.S. military technology is characterized by
False assumptions
ultrahigh performance, high cost, limited pro-
When U.S. industry dominated world mar-
duction runs, specialized products, and re-
kets, the contribution of America's science
stricted markets. Quality is too often inspected
and technology policy to industrial innova-
in at the end rather than built into the manu-
tion was not a major concern. Now that other
facturing process. Industry managers, by con-
nations have emerged as industrial powers,
trast, are obsessed with flexible manufactur-
however, the impact of public policy on in-
ing, high quality at low cost, volume
dustrial technology has taken on a new ur-
production, and access to many different mar-
gency. Unfortunately, the U.S. model for
kets. Moreover, military specifications seem
technological innovation is today increas-
very eccentric in the eyes of commercial in-
SUMMER 1992
53
dustry. For example, the military specifica-
ate demand for nascent commercial tech-
tions for chile con carne-hardly a high-tech
nology. The new innovation model requires
product-run to 30 pages. Given this bu-
a constant give and take among organiza-
reaucratic approach to technology, it is no
tions involved in the development of new
surprise that civilian defense contractors
technology, and the federal government
maintain two strictly separate technology and
needs to establish formal channels that en-
manufacturing programs to serve their com-
courage this kind of interaction.
mercial and military customers.
Assumption 3. The United States is still
The spinoff theory no longer works well
the undisputed source of most new technol-
for most of U.S. industry, if it ever did. Per-
ogy. Because U.S. innovation policy was de-
haps even more important, it is a highly in-
veloped when the country dominated world-
efficient way to develop new technology and
wide science and technology, it does not
open new markets. Despite the growing
emphasize international information-gather-
recognition of this dilemma, however, many
ing or systematic tracking of foreign re-
U.S. science projects, such as the Space Sta-
search. Instead, it uses classification and ex-
tion and the Superconducting Supercollider,
port controls to limit foreign access to U.S.
are still partly justified on the basis of their
technology.
spinoffs to industry.
This world view does not square with
Assumption 2. Innovation is a linear,
the facts. Although the United States still
step-by-step process in which basic research
leads the world in Nobel prizes and is a
leads to applied research, then manufactur-
major source of new technology, it is by no
ing, marketing, and ultimately commercial
means alone on the mountaintop. In many
products. Although this approach works for
basic areas such as robotics, computer mem-
some science-based industries such as phar-
ory chips, and optoelectronics the United
maceuticals, for many industries it does not.
States has already lost leadership to foreign
Instead of a relay race, innovation is more
competitors.
akin to a basketball game, in which the play-
U.S. efforts to tap international sources
ers constantly pass the ball back and forth. A
of technology have been ineffective. Some
total team effort and systematic long-term
fellowships have been established that en-
progress are more important than a fast start
courage American scientists and engineers
and simplistic handoffs.
to work overseas, and the State Department
This new approach focuses more on
is paying more attention to technology is-
market demand. It suggests that innovation is
sues, but the not-invented-here syndrome is
achieved through an interactive process in
still the rule for most government agencies.
which engineering, design, manufacturing,
Assumption 4. U.S. industries have a
and marketing all drive research. It focuses
significant advantage over their foreign com-
not on big breakthroughs but on systematic
petitors in being able to exploit U.S. federal
incremental improvements in processes as
R&D projects and appropriate the economic
well as products in reaction to changing mar-
rewards. This assumption was developed in
ket signals.
an era when Japanese and European industry
In recent years, the federal government
lay in ruin, and communications and trans-
has attempted to increase the relevance of
portation systems were in their infancy. It
its research by conducting more R&D on
assumes that the spillovers from federal
precompetitive generic technologies. Al-
R&D would be appropriated domestically.
though this is a step in the right direction,
This assumption no longer makes sense.
more needs to be done. It is also important to
Overseas firms are today aggressive clients of
link R&D with efforts to create new markets
U.S. federal R&D. In an attempt to tap into
by using government procurement to initi-
the U.S. technology base, more and
54
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
ISSUES IN FOCUS
more foreign companies have set up research
assign a priority to manufacturing-related is-
labs in this country. Princeton, New Jersey-
sues. When it did focus on manufacturing, it
which is near Bell Labs and is the home of a
zeroed in on narrow, compartmentalized is-
major research university-is a particularly
sues-such as how to de-
popular location; it is already the site for labs
sign a particular drilling
operated by NEC, Hitachi, and Matsushita
machine or punch press-
of Japan and Siemens of Germany. Kobe
and overlooked the big
Steel and Fujitsu have research centers in
picture.
The new manufacturing
Silicon Valley. And 16 foreign companies
As more and more
have spent about $2 million apiece to endow
U.S. companies stumbled
extension centers should
chairs at MIT. Given the extent of penetra-
in the face of international
tion, it should come as no surprise that for-
competition, however, it
be carefully evaluated, linked
eign companies often have as much access to
became clear that industry
the results of government-funded R&D as
faced significant manufac-
closely wth state technology
U.S. firms. For example, today National
turing problems. At first
Aeronautic and Space Agency (NASA) re-
these problems were at-
programs, and over
search is likely to end up in the hands of Air-
tributed to high wages or
time significantly expanded.
bus in Toulouse, France, just as quickly as
unfair foreign competition.
it gets to Boeing or McDonnell Douglas.
It was not until the 1980s,
Although there is growing concern in
when quality and time-to-market emerged
Congress, the administration, and the gen-
as critical concerns, that there was a renewed
eral public about the usurpation of U.S. tax-
focus on manufacturing as a major source
payer-funded R&D, the public-policy im-
of competitive advantage. With it came the
plications are far from obvious. The problem
recognition that new, lean, flexible produc-
is compounded because the United States is
tion systems were also central to being com-
not getting the inside track on overseas re-
petitive.
search. Clearly, the U.S. government needs to
Unless U.S. industry devotes more at-
push for greater access to foreign sources of
tention to manufacturing, superior product
technology, but there are structural imbal-
technology will provide limited advantages.
ances that make this difficult. For example,
The federal R&D apparatus, however, is not
the Freedom of Information Act and the open
set up to help manufacturing unless it relates
U.S. university system provide outside parties
to specific mission requirements, such as
with ready access to federal labs and gov-
building nuclear weapons. President Bush's
ernment-sponsored research. By contrast,
1993 budget proposes to spend $1 billion on
most of the good research in Japan is con-
manufacturing R&D, which amounts to only
ducted in private companies that are closed to
1.3 percent of the total federal R&D budget.
U.S. researchers.
Assumption 6. Diffusion of technology
Assumption 5. Product technology takes
is a passive process. The U.S. approach to
precedence over manufacturing process tech-
technology transfer is based on the premise
nology. U.S. innovation policy is based on
that an open research system is more than
the implicit belief that this country has
adequate to promote the exchange of ideas
largely mastered the production process. It
and to diffuse technology throughout the in-
is easy to understand how this bias devel-
dustrial base. Although this approach may
oped; the U.S. mass-production system was
work well for the scientific community and
a critical factor in winning World War II, and
for some large firms with plentiful resources,
for decades afterward American industry
it does not work for many small and mid-
dominated international markets. As a result,
sized enterprises, particularly the 325,000
U.S. science and technology policy did not
U.S. companies with fewer than 99 employ-
SUMMER 1992
55
ees. These firms have enough difficulty just
mains a technological leader and interna-
introducing existing technology into their
tional competitor.
operations, much less keeping up with new
However, in technologies that do not fit
technological developments. For example,
the old approach, which is more and more
numerically controlled machine tools, which
the case, U.S. industry is facing severe com-
were invented in the United States more than
petitive challenges. Electronics is perhaps
30 years ago, are used at only about one-
the best example of an industry that does not
third of U.S. machine tool companies, com-
conform to the traditional model. In the in-
pared with more than three-fourths of the
dustry's early days, inventions such as the
machine tool companies in Japan. There is
transistor sprang from basic research and
no effective program for diffusing technology
launched the industry forward in leaps and
and management techniques to U.S. manu-
bounds. Today, however, the mature industry
facturing.
is propelled largely by incremental advances,
Assumption 7. Time-to-market is not a
many in production. In addition, federal
crucial factor. In the 1940s and 1950s, prod-
agencies such as DOD and NASA, which
uct cycles were much longer than they are
are heavy users of electronics, tend to lag
today, and competition was limited to do-
commercial applications. For example, the
mestic firms that faced similar constraints.
Intel 8088 microprocessor used in the Pa-
Consequently, time-to-market was not an
triot missile, which symbolized U.S. tech-
overriding concern. As product cycles have
nological superiority in the Persian Gulf, is
contracted, however, and competition has
three generations old. Moreover, other coun-
become international, time has emerged as
tries have seized leadership in such areas as
a pivotal element of technological leader-
memory chips, actuators, printed circuit
ship. Indeed, concern about time now moti-
boards, displays, and optical data storage
vates innovation in many industries. In an
systems. Consequently, U.S. industry can-
era when technology is so quickly diffused
not depend on inbred technology. It must ag-
around the world, being first to market by
gressively track foreign technology devel-
even a few months can spell the difference
opments. Finally, manufacturing matters.
between success and failure. The federal
The loss of leadership in electronics was not
R&D bureaucracy, however, with its focus
due to a lack of advanced technology but to
on satisfying procedural requirements, is not
the failure to manufacture quality products in
very responsive to the new premium on time.
a timely, cost-effective way. All of these con-
cerns lay outside the scope of traditional U.S.
Avoiding irrelevance
innovation policies.
Although the policy debate in Congress and
If the United States is to succeed in
the administration may center around prob-
world markets, government and industry
lems in specific industries, such as semi-
must forge new alliances built around a fun-
conductors or consumer electronics, the roots
damentally different model of innovation.
of the competitiveness problem lie in the
The old model is not completely invalid, but
U.S. innovation system. In technologies that
for many technologies and industries it is in-
are strongly supported by the traditional U.S.
creasingly irrelevant.
approach to innovation, the U.S. research
base complements private-sector R&D ef-
New policies that
forts. The pharmaceuticals industry, for ex-
promote innovation
ample, is driven by basic research supported
As the failings of the U.S. innovation sys-
by the National Institutes of Health. New
tem became apparent during the 1980s, the
knowledge-not manufacturing expertise-
federal government launched several new
is the key to success, and the industry re-
programs to stimulate industrial technology,
56
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
ISSUES IN FOCUS
but they remain modest. Subsequent con-
conjunction with industry. Their purpose is
gressional and presidential policy pro-
to eliminate duplicative research and establish
nouncements have had little effect. Budgets
new R&D priorities that correspond to U.S.
continue to reflect past priorities, and en-
technology needs in the global economy.
trenched bureaucratic resistance too often
These initiatives are a step in the right direc-
continues to impede real progress. Many
tion, but they suffer from a lack of central-
government agencies still cling to the as-
ized oversight, weak links between agency
sumptions described above.
R&D programs and broader national needs,
The nation will need new kinds of in-
and little thinking about new national goals.
novation policies in the future. They can be
Moreover, only a fraction of the federal R&D
divided into five areas: involving the private
budget is open to review; in each annual bud-
sector in setting new national R&D priori-
get cycle, only the incremental addition to a
ties; promoting technology diffusion;
research initiative, not the existing baseline,
strengthening the U.S. technology infras-
can be scrutinized and challenged. This pre-
tructure; improving U.S. manufacturing pro-
cludes widespread revamping.
cess technology; and tracking technology
Although federal officials often defend
and global markets.
their R&D budgets by pointing to their con-
Involving the private sector in setting
tribution to U.S. industrial competitiveness,
new national R&D priorities. Today, gov-
they rarely involve industry representatives in
ernment is at least as likely to be dependent
decisions about what to fund. U.S. industry
on advanced commercial technology as in-
should be systematically brought into the
dustry is to be on leading-edge government
budget-setting process to make sure that gov-
technology. As a result, it is essential that
ernment technology programs are respon-
the government systematically reach out to
sive to the goal of strengthening U.S. com-
the private sector for help in setting federal
petitiveness in critical technologies. In
R&D budget priorities.
addition, the administration and Congress
In Japan, the Ministry of International
should clarify potential conflicts of inter-
Trade and Industry's Agency of Industrial
est-by executive order or legislation, if nec-
Science and Technology promotes R&D on
essary-and establish routine channels for
industrial technology, and in Germany in-
closer collaboration with industry. One ve-
dustrial research cooperatives are directly
hicle for this activity would be a private-sec-
olicy actions
involved in setting the government's research
tor forum of leading industrial, labor, and
must be
agenda. Both groups keep in close contact
academic people who regularly consult with
with industry. By contrast, U.S. industry's
senior government officials.
complemented
input into the federal R&D budget is spo-
Promoting technology diffusion. State
radic at best.
and local governments are already actively
by a serious
In an attempt to involve the private sec-
involved in technology diffusion, and the
tor more closely, the government has an-
federal government is beginning to follow
effort to reduce
nounced several technology initiatives,
their lead. By the end of 1992, the Com-
known as cross-cuts, which cover such areas
merce Department plans to staff seven Man-
the time lag
as high-performance computing, materials,
ufacturing Technology Transfer Centers
inherent in many
biotechnology, and manufacturing. Each of
across the country that would help small and
these cross-cuts includes a review by the Of-
mid-sized companies increase their produc-
federal technology
fice of Management and Budget, the White
tivity and performance. President Bush has
House Office of Science and Technology Pol-
proposed increasing the budget for these cen-
programs.
icy, and the Federal Coordinating Commit-
ters to $18 million for 1993. This increase-
tee on Science, Engineering, and Technol-
as welcome as it is-is only a drop in the
ogy (which links various agencies) in
bucket. In Germany, over 40 contract R&D
SUMMER 1992
57
centers (called Fraunhofer Gesellschaft) and
bridges, highways, and harbors, but today
a broad network of industry associations and
the United States faces a new series of in-
research cooperatives effectively diffuse tech-
frastructure needs that relate to technology,
nology across industry. In Japan, major gov-
such as a national high-speed data network.
ernment-sponsored research projects; 170
The federal government should assess the
Kohsetsushi technology support centers for
nation's needs, benchmark what foreign gov-
small business; and tight links between com-
ernments are doing, and develop strategies,
panies and suppliers that form the large, ver-
programs, and implementation plans to make
tically integrated corporate families (keiretsu)
sure that the United States has a world-class
like that owned by Mitsubishi, serve much
21st-century technology infrastructure.
the same function. There is no comparable
An example of a program that con-
system in the United States.
tributes to this new infrastructure is the High
What the United States does have is a
Performance Computing and Communica-
well-developed agricultural extension ser-
tions initiative (one of the cross-cuts). This
vice. The U.S. government currently spends
program is divided into four areas: hardware,
$1.2 billion annually and employs 9,650
software, networks, and human resources.
county agents and 4,650 scientists to bring
The U.S. computer industry, through its
modern farming methods, new technology,
Computer Systems Policy Project (CSPP),
and information about markets to American
has been closely involved in the develop-
farmers. By contrast, the U.S. federal gov-
ment of this program and has made several
ernment spends only $16 million on manu-
recommendations to strengthen it, such as
facturing extension, despite the fact that man-
expanding it to include research for better
ufacturing accounts for about 22 percent of
health care systems, lifelong learning pro-
the nation's gross national product, com-
grams, enhanced industrial design capabil-
pared to agriculture's share of only 3 per-
ity, and broad access to public and private
cent. State and local governments chip in an-
databases. CSPP also suggested a reorder-
other $60 million for manufacturing
ing of priorities, ways to improve program
extension, but the total effort does not begin
management, and a scheme for establishing
to approach the scale of the programs in
a technology and policy foundation that
Japan and Germany.
would work on an information and commu-
Instead of being an afterthought, tech-
nication infrastructure for the future. These
nology diffusion should become a central
recommendations should be enacted. More to
tenet of U.S. policy. The new manufacturing
the point, government and industry in other
extension centers should be carefully evalu-
sectors should try to establish similar work-
ated, linked closely with state technology
ing relationships. In those relationships, the
programs, and over time significantly ex-
government should view industry as the cus-
panded. There is no reason not to fund these
tomer for its research.
manufacturing extension centers at the same
Improving U.S. manufacturing pro-
level as the agricultural extension service.
cesses. The U.S. R&D agenda is character-
Strengthening U.S. technology infras-
ized by too much focus on product and not
tructure. U.S. technology infrastructure con-
enough on process. Whereas U.S. firms tend
sists of physical assets (such as equipment,
to compete on the basis of technology and
facilities, and networks) and human capital
unique products, the Japanese tend to share
(such as skilled scientists, engineers, and
technology and compete on the basis of man-
other personnel). Infrastructure programs
ufacturing processes. U.S. managers need to
have traditionally been the responsibility of
redouble their efforts to master new manu-
federal and state governments. We are used
facturing processes, and public policy should
to thinking of infrastructure in terms of
encourage this shift.
58
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
ISSUES IN FOCUS
Fortunately, the pendulum has begun to
In essence, the question of what to do
swing in this direction. The Malcolm Baldrige
about critical technologies can be answered
Quality Award has already made a signifi-
with U.S. innovation policy. Strengths and
cant contribution by inspiring companies to
weaknesses in individual technologies are
improve manufacturing operations. Other
really symptoms of strengths and weaknesses
hopeful signs include Commerce's creation of
in the larger U.S. innovation system. The
the seven Manufacturing Technology Cen-
importance of sound macroeconomic policy,
ters, establishment by the National Science
competitive financing, and a skilled work-
Foundation of Engineering Research Cen-
force-the traditional concerns of the fed-
ters, the recently announced R&D budget
eral government-cannot be overestimated,
cross-cut for manufacturing, and the prolif-
but by themselves they are not enough to as-
eration of state manufacturing extension pro-
sure U.S. technological strength. They must
grams. These are only nascent programs,
be backed by an innovation policy that is
however, that remain starved for funds. They
geared to international economic competi-
should receive much more support.
tion. Recasting U.S. policy, and acting on it
Tracking technology and global mar-
quickly, can bring back what has long been
kets. There is no doubt that the U.S. govern-
America's advantage in world markets-its
ment needs to do a significantly better job
innovation system.
of tracking important technology develop-
ments and market potentials around the
world and communicating them to Ameri-
can industry. The United States maintains
Recommended reading
50,000 troops in Japan, but only five com-
Alic, Branscomb, Brooks, Carter, and Ep-
mercial officers. By contrast, the Japan Ex-
stein, Beyond Spinoff: Military and
ternal Trade Organization, which gathers
Commercial Technologies in a Changing
commercial information and explores market
World. Boston, Mass.: Harvard Busi-
opportunities, has several hundred officers
ness School Press, 1992.
in New York City alone. The United States
Computer Systems Policy Project, Perspec-
should greatly increase its foreign presence.
tives: Success Factors in Critical Tech-
nologies. Washington, D.C., 1990.
Council on Competitiveness, Gaining New
ctions in the five innova-
Ground: Technology Priorities for
A
tion-policy areas mentioned
America's Future. Washington, D.C.,
above must be comple-
March 1991.
mented by a serious effort
The Department of Defense, Critical Tech-
to reduce the time lag in-
nologies Plan (for the Committee on
herent in many federal
Armed Services, United States Con-
technology functions and programs. Whether
gress). Washington, D.C., 1989, 1990,
it is screening applications for Food and Drug
1991.
Administration approvals, executing cooper-
U.S. Department of Commerce, Technology
ative R&D agreements between federal la-
Administration, Emerging Technologies:
boratories and companies, or shifting R&D
A Survey of Technical and Economic
priorities, the government must recognize the
Opportunities. Washington, D.C., 1990.
premium of a rapid response. Long delays
The National Critical Technologies Panel,
not only reduce the impact of otherwise well-
Report of the National Critical Tech-
designed initiatives, they undermine the spirit
nologies Panel (for the Office of Sci-
of cooperation that is necessary for effective
ence and Technology Policy). Wash-
government-industry partnerships.
ington, D.C., March 1991.
SUMMER 1992
59
The Business of
Technology
hief technology officers
must change the way they have historically
(CTOs) are the leaders of in-
done their work. They must push research
dustrial research and devel-
and development departments to become
opment enterprises. To make
more oriented to business goals and better
those enterprises responsive
integrated in business operations. The cost
to shifts in the business en-
will be the loss of some of the independence
vironment for new technology-shifts that
that those departments have traditionally
have been substantial in recent years-CTOs
claimed. The gains will be a smoother tran-
sition for new technology from laboratories
to the market and superior economic perfor-
Lawrence H. Linden is a senior manager in the Op-
erations, Technology, and Finance Division of Gold-
mance and competitiveness.
man Sachs & Company, a New York-based invest-
To understand why and how the job de-
ment bank. From 1983 until earlier this year, he was a
scriptions of CTOs must change, we need
partner in the New York office of McKinsey & Com-
look only briefly at some of the critical new
pany, Inc. This article is based on work he did with
Richard N. Foster and others in McKinsey's Tech-
pressures in the world business environment.
nology Management Practice.
Every thoughtful observer of industrial R&D
60
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
ISSUES IN FOCUS
can offer his or her own list of these pres-
effectively, through joint decisionmaking and
sures. In my view, the following four have
smooth technology transfer.
been felt most strongly:
Dramatically shorter product life cy-
The need to demonstrate clear and de-
cles. This results from the increasing pace
finable economic value as a prerequisite of
of technological change, the quick response
new investments. In the jargon of corporate
to market opportunities made possible by
finance, this shift results from the develop-
computer-aided design and development ca-
ment of a "market for corporate control,"
pabilities and flexible manufacturing, and
where businesses are moved through di-
the use of rapid product proliferation (by
vestiture and acquisition to whatever parent
companies based in Japan and elsewhere) as
company can draw from them the most eco-
a successful competitive weapon. The speed
esearch
nomic value. The increased pace of these ac-
and efficiency with which business units can
tivities has forced managers to regard
move new products to market often deter-
managers must
prospective cash flow as the principal mea-
mines the economic performance of tech-
sure of their performance. In this setting the
nology-intensive corporations. This capabil-
integrate their
CTO must ensure that the business rationale
ity must therefore be a central focus of the
for investments in technology is clear, espe-
CTO and others on a corporation's top man-
efforts into the
cially in the central research laboratory; that
agement team.
new technology is brought to market effec-
Significantly increased dispersion of
core of corporate
tively and efficiently, so that its full finan-
technology. This trend arises from the in-
strategy and
cial return can be captured; and that all this is
creasing complexity of new products, which
done in a manner that is visible to and un-
depend on an ever-wider range of technolo-
operations.
derstandable by senior managers, customers,
gies; the growing number of high-technol-
and shareholders.
ogy startups and the expansion of university,
The continuing decentralization of busi-
industrial, and federal laboratories; and the
ness decisionmaking. Industrial enterprises
globalization of all these sources of new tech-
have continued to rearrange themselves into
nology, which is most apparent in the in-
smaller business units, each with most or all
creasing sophistication of the research es-
of the functional capabilities (technology de-
tablishments in Japan and Europe.
velopment, manufacturing, marketing, and
Businesses must be more alert than ever to
so on) necessary for managers to execute
R&D conducted by others. In the past, U.S.
their business plans and with substantial flex-
corporations have tended to adopt an agri-
ibility in the choice of strategies for meet-
cultural stance toward new technology, grow-
ing performance goals. This structure has
ing what they needed. Now they must learn
won out over others for the freedom it gives
to be better hunter-gatherers.
managers to organize resources around
Collectively, these four new pressures
customers, technology, or some other ap-
compel all corporate sectors involved in the
propriate focus. Decentralized organization
development of new technology to adopt as
challenges the CTO to build excellent rela-
their first priority the efficient delivery of
tionships with the leaders of a corporation's
value to the corporation's customers.
business units, since they control the delivery
of technology to the marketplace. The CTO
A broader mandate
must define carefully the role of the central
Given these large shifts in the business en-
research laboratory in supporting the busi-
vironment and the demands they impose on
ness units (as distinct from its roles in other
the way corporations manage technology,
elements of corporate strategy, such as in-
it's critically important for top management
venting new businesses). And the CTO must
teams to understand technological change
push laboratory staff to provide that support
and how to exploit it. If they don't, their cor-
SUMMER 1992
61
porate performance can suffer dramatically
presided over the organization of 10 "exper-
over time. In many companies, where the
tise centers" in fields such as the chemistry of
senior managers are generally not technol-
controlled polymerization. Previously, there
ogists, R&D issues must be brought to top
had not been adequate oversight across the
management by the CTO. The problem is
various laboratories in the corporation that
that too many CTOs in industrial corpora-
were working on similar technology. The job
tions are expected to concentrate on R&D
of the expertise centers is to ensure that the
and leave the implementation of new tech-
right technology is in the right place at the
nology largely to others. An appropriately
right time throughout the corporation. Using
broader mandate for a CTO can lead in many
this technical responsiveness, Dow Corning
cases to the more efficient exploitation of
can feed new technology into products rang-
technology.
ing from flexible adhesives to rigid packag-
The first challenge for many CTOs,
ing. (Dow Corning's much-publicized prob-
then, is to earn that broader mandate in cor-
lems with its breast implant product line do
porate leadership. There are a number of
not detract from the company's large ac-
first-rate CTOs in the United States whose
complishments in developing and exploiting
tasks go well beyond the technology func-
silicone technology in the industrial sector-
tions of their companies. The most impor-
by far the largest part of its business.)
tant of these tasks are:
The CTO of the Dow Chemical Com-
Taking responsibility for the commer-
pany, Frederick Corson, also takes a leader-
cialization capability of the company. Very
ship role in ensuring the health of his com-
often the CTO is the person in the best posi-
pany's technology base. To do this, he uses a
tion to improve the company's performance
variety of tools, including spending corpo-
in bringing new technology successfully to
rate funds to subsidize research within a busi-
market. Commercialization is the job of the
ness unit that goes beyond the specific needs
business units. It's so important to a corpo-
of the unit and addresses needs elsewhere in
ration's performance in developing technol-
the corporation. He says that Dow Chemi-
ogy, however, that the CTO should help lead
cal is willing to put its money where its strat-
necessary change. At Dow Corning, for ex-
egy is: "We believe that to maintain our po-
ample, the CTO, Donald Weyenberg, has
sition in a core technology, we've got to be
taken ownership of the product development
advancing it."
process from conception to market intro-
Managing the acquisition of important
duction, as part of his duties as a member of
technologies. Through strategic alliances,
the company's top management team. His
joint ventures, relationships with university
goal is to improve the company's average
laboratories and departments, and other tools,
time-to-market by 70 to 80 percent.
the best CTOs ensure that necessary tech-
Ensuring the technological health of the
nologies beyond those at their companies'
corporation. This means clearly specifying
core are acquired. They may or may not be-
the corporation's core technologies, moni-
come core technologies in the future. For
toring the corporation's competitive position
example, Arden Bement, the CTO of TRW,
in these technologies, focusing investment
estimates that 80 percent of all technology
in them, and ensuring their exploitation. In
that TRW uses at the operational level comes
some companies this is a responsibility of
from outside the company. "If it is impor-
the CTO and a high priority of the central
tant and if our capability is poor, we go after
research laboratory. Donald Weyenberg has
it. Our joint venture in ceramics with Nor-
ensured the continuation of Dow Corning's
ton, which combines our automotive parts
tradition of technical leadership in silicone
skills and Norton's ceramics skills, grew out
technology. Recently, for example, he
of just this kind of situation."
62
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
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Shifting technical resources among the
pany are formidable: "It's very important to
corporate center, business units, and else-
have a CTO who can look from customer
where. In the face of corporate acquisitions
needs back to the technology and lead
and spinoffs and in support of the continuing
change within the R&D community, who
decentralization of decisionmaking to busi-
has a scientific background deep enough to
ness units, top management must often move
be in touch with the scientific community in
R&D resources from one site to another.
order to gather intelligence and to help us
CTOs who take on this responsibility some-
make strategic choices, and who is comfort-
times face traumatic decisions. In the early
able at both ends of the technology spec-
1980s, Kodak moved from a functional to a
trum, from science to applications engineer-
business-unit structure to support its in-
ing, and able to integrate them."
creasingly diversified businesses, which
Often, it isn't a lack of skill that pre-
range from photographic film to copiers to
vents a CTO from performing as these two
electronic image systems. Edwin Przyby-
executives advise, but rather a tradition of
lowicz, who retired recently after a long ca-
skepticism on the part of chief executive of-
reer as Kodak's CTO, followed up by break-
ficers and business-unit managers. The cred-
ing most of Kodak's huge R&D organization
ibility problem is pervasive. One chief ex-
into discrete pieces and assigning them to
ecutive officer was probably echoing the
the businesses they supported, keeping only
views of many of his peers when he re-
certain core elements in the central research
marked to me recently, "Our technologists
laboratory. Over the past four years, Donald
have a self-serving tendency that can some-
Weyenberg has shifted about 40 percent of
times be severe." A comment lobbed from
Dow Corning's R&D capability from the
the opposite camp, by a vice-president for
central research laboratory to far-flung busi-
R&D, shows that wariness is not all on one
ness units. Walter Robb at General Electric
side. He confided, "The perception here is
presided over an even more wrenching tran-
that technology has lived off the largesse of
sition when General Electric acquired RCA,
the company. This has produced a real mis-
in 1986. He identified research that was un-
trust that I've never been able to overcome."
necessary to the technologies at General
A CTO in a corporate environment like that
Electric's core, and as a result GE gave
is, needless to say, in an awkward position.
RCA's Sarnoff Laboratories to SRI Interna-
There are a few things that industrial
tional and its Zurich laboratory to the Swiss
R&D leaders can do to improve their credi-
government.
bility significantly and, thus, to earn the
broader mandate that will allow them to
Enhancing credibility
more effectively integrate R&D with other
There's no doubt that the people able to do
corporate operations. They include:
the job of CTO possess a variety of skills.
Acting as a business executive who is a
According to Jim Colby, who was CTO at
technologist rather than as a scientist who
Allied Signal for most of the past decade,
happens to be working in industry. It re-
"The CTO is not the person most knowl-
quires:
edgeable about all the technologies in the
Learning to communicate with senior
businesses, unless it's a single-business com-
business executives and other senior general
pany. Rather, it's someone who can learn
managers in plain language. For example,
quickly what's important by drawing on the
as Graham Mitchell of GTE has noted,
best technical people for advice and then ap-
"long-range research" is obviously unattrac-
plying judgment in an overall business con-
tive to a chief executive officer if it simply
text." The prerequisites listed by the chief
means research that pays off in a long time
executive officer of a large chemical com-
rather than a short time, all else held the
64
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
ISSUES IN FOCUS
same. Within the research community, how-
counted for by products less than six years
ever, "long-range research" often refers to
old and the time it takes a product to emerge
programs that go on for a long time but
from the development process. At a mini-
throw off useful results continuously.
mum, CTOs can hold themselves and their
Building a business perspective into
research teams accountable for carrying out
the laboratories-for example, by reward-
the activities to which they commit them-
ing business successes rather than purely
selves.
technical achievements and by ensuring that
Creating highly participatory priority-
every person in the lab can articulate the
setting processes. Decisions about technol-
business benefits of what he or she is doing.
ogy should be made as part of the general
Showing that they share the business
corporate discussion-that is, in the context
perspective of the corporate culture. One way
of budgeting and strategic planning rather
is to let people go when the rest of the cor-
than insulated from such noise. It's impor-
poration is doing so. Layoffs may seem
tant to make sure there is bite. One vice-
heretical, but being part of the business team
president for R&D told me, "Credible R&D
may be more important than continuing to
directors kill 10 percent of their projects each
support the lowest-priority projects. Simi-
year and let the chief executive officer know
larly, responding to near-term technical crises
it." Well-designed priority-setting processes
with quick technical support can win friends
enhance credibility and performance, by en-
as well as yield business insights, more than
suring that managers are truly committed to
compensating for a brief disruption in on-
using the results of programs that were cre-
going research. The CTO of a large chemical
ated in the first place to support their units.
company told me, "The best thing we ever
did for the plastics division was to solve a
Advancing commercialization
problem with a batch of cloudy resin. There
Even with a broader mandate, CTOs face a
was no research, but it brought real respect."
major challenge in improving the commer-
Establishing accountability. Account-
cialization process for new technology, be-
ability is a necessary password for entry into
cause the key levers are often beyond their
U.S. business leadership but one heard rarely
immediate organizational reach. The payoff is
in industrial R&D. One CTO pointed out re-
well worth the effort, however, because the
cently: "When I was a division manager, I
business impact of improving commercial-
The best
knew where I stood week by week. When I
ization can be very large. A comparison of
corporate leaders and laggards around the
CTOs ensure
took my current job, there were no mea-
surement systems in place and it was six
world shows that, in a given period, the lead-
months before I had any sense of how I was
ers commercialize two to three times more
that necessary
doing." Whereas measuring performance is
new products and processes than the laggards,
technologies beyond
notoriously difficult in R&D, a mix of mea-
incorporate two to three times more new tech-
sures together can give a usable picture. For
nologies, compete in twice as many product
those at their
example, GE's Walter Robb has tried to mea-
and geographic markets, and bring their prod-
sure nearly everything he can think of. He's
ucts to market in less than half the time.
companies' core are
done a study of the economic impact of com-
One of the leaders, Hewlett-Packard,
pleted corporate research projects, assess-
used its ability to commercialize technology
acquired.
ments of the quantity and quality of patents,
to take market share away from entrenched
evaluations of the importance of his research
players in the microcomputer printer busi-
projects to GE's business units, and a study
ness in the mid-1980s. Previously, several
of the net cash flow of licensing income and
Japanese companies dominated the market.
payments. Other measures that CTOs can use-
But in quick succession Hewlett-Packard in-
fully pursue include the fraction of sales ac-
troduced a broad line of printers based on
SUMMER 1992
65
innovative laser, ink-jet, and software tech-
Hewlett-Packard used separate wires to con-
nologies. Over the past six years, it has
nect components, the Japanese company had
seized a significant share of the market for
configured the chassis to allow the use of a
printers, including nearly 60 percent of the
wire harness to replace separate connections.
U.S. market for desktop laser printers.
This difference in design made the Japanese
product cheaper and more reliable than
The keys to promoting effective com-
Hewlett-Packard's own, more popular prod-
mercialization processes include:
uct. Hewlett-Packard quickly turned its at-
Making commercialization a top cor-
tention to improving design and in so doing
porate priority. One semiconductor company
was able to preserve its market position.
lost almost 20 points of market share over
Benchmarking can help a company with
the latter half of the 1980s by failing to em-
two of the trickiest problems in commer-
phasize commercialization and concentrat-
cialization. One is deciding which new tech-
ing instead only on improved quality, world-
nologies to use and which old technologies to
class manufacturing, and excellent customer
reuse. The other is deciding which tech-
service. That company's chief executive of-
nologies to invest in and which to acquire
ficer told one of my colleagues recently, "At
from other sources.
the time we felt that better use of technol-
Building truly cross-functional skills.
ogy and more effective product development
This encompasses more than "design for
were the essence of our business. We're a
manufacturing" (making manufacturing ef-
high-tech company, after
ficiency one of the priorities in a product's
all. We didn't think we
design) or "quality function deployment" (the
needed to put those priori-
formal process for ensuring that a product's
ties on the list." He says
design takes all the customers' needs into
The CTO must build strong
now that his failure to do
account). It also includes cross-training and
so in 1986 was the worst
job rotation, empowering heavyweight project
relationships with business-unit
decision he made in his
managers, and promoting hands-on manage-
25-year career. Often the
ment. Companies that excel at commercial-
leaders, since they control
best single way to improve
ization boast, "We've got the best project
the delivery of technology to
commercialization capa-
managers in the world." Low performers say,
bility is to focus on reduc-
"We've got the best circuit designers."
the marketplace.
ing the time it takes to
None of these tools is commonly found
bring a product to market.
in the kits of industrial R&D leaders, but
Measuring
and
they all should be.
benchmarking commercial processes. All
key performance dimensions should be mea-
Refocusing the central lab
sured and compared with those of the com-
Too many central research laboratories have
petition: time-to-market, range of markets,
been operated on the assumption that splen-
number of products, and breadth of technol-
did isolation is necessary to success. Their
ogy, as well as cost, product performance,
overseers have believed that exposure to the
delivery time, and service. Hewlett-Packard's
marketplace would be a distraction. But the
use of competitive benchmarks saved its po-
best models of central research are not op-
sition in the radio-frequency analyzer busi-
erated that way at all. These include GE's
ness. Its radio-frequency analyzer dominated
Corporate Research Center, in Schenectady,
the market in the 1970s and early 1980s, but
New York, and the Dow Corning Technical
when Hewlett-Packard engineers tore down
Center and Dow Chemical Central Research
a competing Japanese product, they discov-
and Development, in Midland, Michigan.
ered that its design was superior. Whereas
These laboratories have built themselves into
66
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
ISSUES IN FOCUS
the mainstream work of their parent corpo-
ily usable by the group (although even for
rations by:
that group some of the laboratory's efforts,
Finding the right balance of strategic
such as its work on superconductivity, are
focus. Laboratories can be buffeted by com-
also aimed at achieving breakthroughs).
peting priorities: the invention of new busi-
Choosing the right balance of funding
nesses, the support of existing businesses,
support from among corporate and business-
and the capture of economic and technical
unit sources. As a rule of thumb, most re-
synergies across businesses. The weight that
search done in support of individual busi-
should be given to any one of these priorities
ness units should be funded by those business
will vary from company to company. But at
units, whereas research intended to lead to
all companies, decisions about these priorities
new inventions should be funded by the cor-
should be explicit and should be made by
poration as a whole. Too many companies
the top management group. In many labora-
allocate the cost of business-unit-support
tories, too much is being spent on new in-
projects to business units on the basis of
ventions that lack clear ties to corporate strat-
some formula that is imposed, rather than
egy, too many projects are set up to support
negotiated. When a business unit isn't al-
business units without any participation by
lowed to choose whether or not to buy into a
the business units themselves, and too little
proposed research project, the laboratory's
attention is given to research on core tech-
managers are free to choose projects that are
nologies with multibusiness impact. A clas-
in fact inappropriate to the business unit's
sic example of the right focus at the right
needs. Many R&D managers cling to this
time was GE's development at the Schenec-
arrangement, fearing dependence on short-
tady laboratory of the CAT scanner, a break-
sighted business-unit managers. The best
through project in support of the medical X-
laboratories take the risk. According to Wal-
ray division. The laboratory had been
ter Robb, GE's CTO, "There is no game
working on CAT-scanner technology when
playing between us and the business units
GE was beaten to market by a competitor.
now. The top business managers, rather than
Working with the x-ray division, the com-
just the R&D guys, make the program
pany was able to bring out a superior CAT
choices with us. And we can truly isolate
scanner and recover its position in medical
and protect the exploratory research." Simi-
imaging.
larly, Allen Womack says, "Our decision to
Setting the right upstream/downstream
emphasize intracompany contracts in R&D
position for technology development and the
relationships with our business units has re-
business units it supports. The way in which
duced the gap in understanding that inter-
the central research laboratory connects with
nally opens between the R&D laboratory
a business unit should depend on that unit's
and the business units."
technical capabilities and strategic position.
Gaining effective "technology transfer"
According to Allen Womack, the CTO of
from the central laboratory to the operating
Babcock and Wilcox, the trick is to "under-
divisions. Too many CTOs blame "the lack
stand the business circumstance and needs
of downfield receivers" for difficulty in mov-
of the individual business units." At GE, for
ing technology out of the laboratory. With
example, the technical sophistication of the
good project selection and business-unit buy-
central laboratory's services varies from one
in, the remaining key link is for the labora-
business unit to another. Research in sup-
tory itself to take responsibility for transfer.
port of the highly technical aircraft engine
At GE, a senior R&D manager told me, "If
group is largely breakthrough oriented. Work
Jack Welch [GE's chief executive officer]
for the technically more mature motors group
heard a senior R&D manager say that an
is less sophisticated and intended to be read-
R&D project was successful but the busi-
SUMMER 1992
67
ness unit failed to use the technology, it
and a rigorous business perspective.
would hurt the manager's career. It's our job
For the CTOs of companies who have
to make sure the business units use our work
not begun the work of achieving such a broad
properly." Stated somewhat differently by
consensus, the first step should be serious
Allen Womack, "It is crucial that the R&D
personal assessment, starting with the CTOs'
laboratory undertake to be a part of the busi-
own objectives and sense of self. This step
ness-to join the business team." One way
will lead the CTOs-many of them, at
this can happen is for members of the central
least-to make significant changes in their
research laboratory staff literally to join the
organizational roles and responsibilities. The
project team and take part in the commer-
result, almost inevitably, will be significant
cialization process.
improvements in the effectiveness with
which their companies are able to use new
Writing the new job description
technology and, ultimately, improved com-
Changes in business and research practice
petitiveness and economic performance.
such as the ones I've just described may be
difficult for some CTOs to adopt, because
to do so may force them to jettison ways of
Recommended reading
working that have brought them success and
W. Lewis and L. Linden, "A New Mission
to trust groups they've learned to view with
for Corporate Technology," Sloan Man-
suspicion. Such adjustments will also test a
agement Review, September-October,
CTO's colleagues in the leadership group,
1990.
because little can be accomplished without
M. Nevens, G. Summe, and B. Uttal, "Com-
everyone's participation. Nevertheless, I be-
mercialization: What the Best Compa-
lieve that the new environment makes these
nies Do," Harvard Business Review,
changes clearly necessary. And for what it's
May-June, 1990.
worth, I've found in my own experience that
B. Uttal, L. Linden, A. Kantrow, and S.
top management teams who share the same
Stock, "R&D Leadership and Credibil-
broad corporate objectives are entirely ca-
ity," report by McKinsey & Company,
pable of agreeing on the organizational and
Inc., for the Industrial Research Insti-
strategic role of technology. All it takes is a
tute, Washington, D.C., August 1991.
commitment to do so, a fact-based approach,
68
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Quality is never an accident.
It is always the result
of intelligent effort.
There must be the will
to produce a superior thing.
John Ruskin
Ekarlm
Science Serving
Mankind in Medicine,
Industry, Agriculture
CIBA-GEIGY
and the Home.
Ardsley, New York 10502
ROBERT J. MOOLENAAR
/
NH
Overhauling
Carcinogen
Classification
"
verything, everything gives
to alert the public, this perception is not un-
E
you cancer. Everything."
justified. Driven by a desire to identify any
Although obvious hyper-
chemical that might prove carcinogenic, var-
bole, this opening line of a
ious agencies have compiled a daunting list
1982 recording by a popular
of potential carcinogens. In fact, about half of
musician conveys a percep-
all the chemicals tested, including some that
tion shared by many Americans. And given
occur naturally in popular foods, have been
the way that federal agencies classify some
labelled as potential carcinogens.
chemicals as carcinogenic and the increas-
The intention of these efforts to iden-
ingly widespread use of the carcinogen label
tify and make the public aware of carcino-
gens is to protect the public health, but the
practical result is confusion and misguided
Robert J. Moolenaar is project director, health and en-
public action. Many chemicals that cause in-
vironmental sciences, at the Dow Chemical Company,
Midland, Michigan, and former chairman of the Amer-
tense public anxiety pose negligible risks
ican Industrial Health Council's scientific committee.
compared to the real dangers that are largely
70
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
ISSUES IN FOCUS
ignored. Alar-treated apples caused a na-
teria in classifying chemical carcinogenic-
tional panic two years ago although not a
ity. In the procedure used by IARC, a team of
single human cancer had been linked to eat-
scientists reviews epidemiologic studies of
ing apples. But despite 25 years of govern-
humans, lifetime exposure studies of rodents
ment warnings about the dangers of smoking,
or other laboratory animals that have been
as well as epidemiologic evidence that links
given very high doses of a chemical, and
smoking to 375,000 premature deaths a year,
other types of laboratory investigations,
29 percent of Americans continue to smoke.
mostly short-term tests to ascertain genetic
Disproportionate responses to risk occur
toxicity. The panel then assigns each chem-
not only among the general public but among
ical to a specific category of risk: known,
federal regulators as well. For example, reg-
probable, or possible carcinogen, not clas-
ulations governing the cleanup of Superfund
sifiable, or noncarcinogenic ("probably not
sites mandate the removal of all known and
carcinogenic" in IARC's schema). One in-
probable carcinogens to levels deemed suit-
dication of the vagueness of these categories
able for drinking water. This means that the
is that they are defined differently by IARC
operational goal is to reduce the levels of all
and government agencies. For example, some
these chemicals to the analytical detection
chemicals that are called probable carcino-
limit, thus providing a margin of safety as
gens by the Environmental Protection
much as 1,000 times greater than that re-
Agency (EPA) are possible carcinogens by
quired for other public health risks. Espe-
IARC's definition, and some possible car-
cially for some chemicals classified as pos-
cinogens are categorized as not classifiable.
sible or probable carcinogens, this goal is
In arriving at these classifications, the
overly stringent as well as impractical. The
scientists adhere to rigid decision rules that
outcome is cleanup delays because the task is
require them to pay attention only to the re-
so difficult and then unnecessary expendi-
search that yields the greatest estimate of
tures of public and private funds for reme-
risk. For example, a substance that repro-
dial measures that will yield, at best, ques-
ducibly induces tumors in a single highly
tionable public health benefits.
sensitive animal species but not in other
A primary reason for skewed priorities
species or strains is placed in the same cate-
is a carcinogen classification system and sub-
gory as substances that produce tumors in
R
isk should
sequent risk assessment procedures that fail
every species studied. As the IARC policy
to take into account all of the relevant sci-
states, the goal is to evaluate evidence for
be communicated
entific data and follow procedures that tend
carcinogenicity. Studies that find no evidence
to blur the distinctions among various lev-
of risk do not influence the classification of
in terms of what
els of risk. If we are to develop an effective
a chemical.
system for protecting the public from the
IARC, and HHS in its preparation of the
is most likely to
dangers of carcinogenic chemicals, we must
Annual Report on Carcinogens, have been
first implement a scientifically rigorous and
particularly indifferent to the considerable
happen as well as
comprehensible method for identifying
scientific effort devoted to describing the cel-
chemicals most in need of control.
lular and biochemical mechanisms that re-
in terms of worst-
sult in tumors in animals exposed to a maxi-
case scenarios.
How not to do it
mum tolerated dose of a substance over their
The International Agency for Research
lifetimes. This research is making it increas-
(IARC), which publishes a classification of
ingly clear that some substances are not likely
carcinogens used by many countries, and the
to elicit the same responses in humans as they
U.S. Department of Health and Human Ser-
do in animals. This seems to be especially
vices (HHS), which issues an Annual Report
the case for chemicals that do not cause ge-
on Carcinogens use essentially the same cri-
netic damage and for conditions of exposure
SUMMER 1992
71
in animal studies that differ markedly from
reform in several areas is called for.
those encountered by people.
The EPA has said it intends to revise its
BHA (butylated hydroxyanisole), an an-
classification system to provide more flexi-
tioxidant added to many foods, and gasoline
bility to conform with current scientific un-
are examples. At high levels of administra-
derstanding. It has held several workshops
tion, BHA produces tumors in rodent
to gather comments and suggestions. This
forestomachs. However, humans do not pos-
is a welcome development, and it should be
sess forestomachs and, therefore, do not have
followed by the other governmental bodies
the same opportunity for exposure of sensi-
involved in classifying chemicals as car-
tive tissue. Gasoline causes tumors in the
cinogens. Just as important, reforms resulting
kidneys of male rats through a reaction with
from these reappraisals should be imple-
a protein that is thought to be unique to those
mented in a way that brings congruence to
animals. This information casts a completely
efforts now carried out independently by sev-
different light on the findings of the animal
eral agencies and fosters consistency with
tests, but this kind of evidence has been ex-
foreign and international bodies involved in
cluded in classification decisions. As a re-
carcinogen classification. In overhauling the
sult, BHA is described as "reasonably antic-
current system for classifying and commu-
ipated to be a human carcinogen" by HHS
nicating the cancer hazard attributable to
and "possibly a human carcinogen" by
chemical exposure, federal agencies should
IARC. Gasoline is classified as a possible
make the following changes.
human carcinogen by IARC.
Adopt a true weight-of-the-evidence ap-
Epidemiologic data, which would indi-
proach. Scientific criteria used to identify
cate a direct link between exposure to a given
chemical carcinogens should incorporate all
chemical and human cancer, is hard to find
the evidence-results of studies that find ev-
because human exposures to many chemi-
idence of cancer-causing activity and of those
cals have been minimal and because there
that do not, epidemiologic data (if available),
are SO many uncontrolled variables that could
and information on the mechanism inducing
be the cause of cancer. And in the absence of
cancer in laboratory animals. The process of
conclusive epidemiologic data, IARC main-
translating experimental data into a charac-
tains that it is both "prudent" and "biologi-
terization of the human cancer hazard should
cally plausible" to infer a human cancer risk
permit scientific judgment on the relevance
from evidence of carcinogenicity in experi-
of findings of carcinogenicity in animals to
mental animals. U.S. regulators subscribe to
the biology of humans. Universal adoption of
the same logic.
a weight-of-the-evidence approach would add
The current system thus ignores much
much-needed credibility to the classification
scientific research, exaggerates the level of
process and foster international harmoniza-
risk in studies it does use, and communicates
tion. EPA's Science Advisory Board recom-
its findings in terms that give the public little
mended that the EPA revise its classification
idea of actual risk.
system to accommodate chemicals that, al-
though carcinogenic in animals, are unlikely to
A better way
pose a cancer hazard to humans.
The identification of carcinogens must be re-
The EPA's risk assessment guidelines
vamped to incorporate the latest scientific
claim that the agency uses a weight-of-evi-
developments and to communicate the na-
dence approach in classifying chemicals as
ture of risk more clearly and accurately. IARC
carcinogens. According to the guidelines,
and EPA have acknowledged the problems
the EPA balances the results of animal stud-
with the current system and have instituted
ies showing carcinogenic activity against
some marginal changes. But comprehensive
studies that do not find an effect. In addi-
72
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
ISSUES IN FOCUS
tion, the agency claims that it considers in-
induced cancers, it is becoming increasingly
formation on carcinogenic mechanisms in
clear that the outcome is dependent on the
study animals to ascertain the predictive
species involved, the route of exposure, the
value of the results when estimating whether
physiological state of the animal during ex-
a chemical poses a cancer risk to people.
posure, and the level and duration of expo-
Because the EPA classification system is
sure. In short, cancer is the result of an in-
patterned after IARC's, however, the out-
teraction between substance, living organism,
come of the agency's approach is heavily in-
and conditions of exposure. Thus, scientific
fluenced by the international organization's
evaluations must also consider these vari-
rigid decision rules and the philosophy that
ables when predicting
underlies those rules. The tendency within
whether a chemical that
EPA has been to conform with the proce-
causes cancer in animals
dures used by IARC and by HHS in prepar-
also poses a cancer hazard
ing the Annual Report on Carcinogens. In-
to humans under the po-
esearch on the
deed, if EPA were to use procedures that
tential range of conditions
differ markedly from those practiced by the
of exposure. The American
biochemical and cellular
nation's lead health agency, it would likely be
Conference of Govern-
criticized.
mental Industrial Hygien-
mechanisms that induce
In contrast to the EPA system, the pro-
ists (ACGIH) has devised
tumor formation in
cedures adopted by the European Commu-
such a system for charac-
nity (EC) consider information on cancer
terizing cancer hazards in
experimental animals must
mechanisms more fully. This explains why,
the workplace. Although
for example, the EC gave a clean bill of
ACGIH is not a regulatory
be increased.
health to the plasticizing agent DEHP (di [2-
body, the Occupational
ethyl hexyl] phthalate), which EPA classi-
Safety and Health Admin-
fies as a probable human carcinogen. Re-
istration (OSHA) has used the organization's
search showing that DEHP does not cause
evaluations when establishing exposure lim-
genetic damage and that tumor formation in
its in the workplace. Other regulatory agen-
rodents involves peroxisome proliferation, a
cies should follow this example.
mechanism not found thus far in humans,
Replace classifications with narrative
heavily influenced this decision.
summaries. The validity and utility of using
Some progress is being made. Last year,
rigid classification frameworks to commu-
for example, IARC decided that a chemical
nicate the results of the hazard-identification
that causes tumors through mechanisms
step must be questioned. As knowledge in-
shown to be unique to the experimental ani-
creases and evaluations become more com-
mals will no longer be considered a possible
plex, it is unlikely that a classification system
human carcinogen. IARC should apply this
can ever capture and convey the essence of
approach to already-classified chemicals as
scientific interpretation. "Probable" or "pos-
well as new substances that come up for clas-
sible" carcinogen, "reasonably anticipated
sification. U.S. agencies should adopt and
to be a carcinogen," or any of the other labels
implement this change, which is a first step
assigned to a chemical hold little meaning
toward a true weight-of-the-evidence ap-
for most people and drastically oversimplify
proach.
the scientific findings. In the view of the gen-
Consider conditions of exposure. The
eral public, a carcinogen is a carcinogen, re-
key question to be answered is not whether a
gardless of the adjective that precedes it.
chemical is a carcinogen, but rather: Under
Consequently, the labels do not effectively
what conditions is the chemical a carcino-
communicate the nature of the cancer hazard.
gen? As more is learned about chemically
A superior alternative is to characterize the
SUMMER 1992
73
hazard in a narrative summary that translates
cantly increase the incidence of tumors as
the results of the scientific evaluation. This
compared to control populations.
would permit a much richer summary of the
EPA's assessment of the cancer risk
available data and eliminate force-fitting into
posed by PCBs was made using data on for-
rigid categories. The new ACGIH system in-
mulations with high chlorine content. Even
corporates this approach in classifications
then, only the most sensitive indicators of
with phrases such as "the agent is carcino-
carcinogenicity were used to estimate po-
genic in experimental animals at dose lev-
tency. The result is a greatly exaggerated es-
els and by routes of administration which
timate of the potential risk from PCB expo-
are considered relevant to worker exposure,"
sure, which could result in a cleanup bill
a description that conveys the relevance of
estimated at up to $100 billion-an enor-
the results in experimental animals to the ex-
mous sum of money, which could be much
posure conditions encountered by humans.
more productively spent on other environ-
The EPA has indicated that it is considering
mental and public health problems.
this approach.
Supplement upper-bound risk assess-
ments. The product of default assumptions
Ithough consensus appears
designed to produce a worst-case scenario,
upper-bound risk estimates provide useful
orities among substances warranting further
A
to be emerging on the need
to improve procedures for
information to regulators as they assign pri-
classifying carcinogens
and assessing the magni-
evaluation and in situations in which the eco-
tude of the cancer risk they
nomic consequences of contemplated regu-
pose, progress is slow because SO many agen-
lations are negligible. However, when the
cies have regulatory responsibilities and none
economic or lifestyle impact of regulatory
has a clear leadership position. Lead re-
measures is likely to be significant, risk
sponsibility for organizing government ef-
should be communicated in terms of what
forts to address this sensitive matter should
current scientific information indicates is
be assigned to a single federal unit, such as
most likely to happen under normal condi-
the Office of Science and Technology Policy.
tions of exposure as well as in terms of
Obviously, the overall effort to improve pro-
worst-case scenarios. The effectiveness of
cedures and foster consistency across the
regulations and the quality of risk-manage-
federal government will require active in-
ment decisions would likely improve if both
volvement by all the appropriate agencies to
types of assessments were available.
ensure that the new system will satisfy the
Consider what impact a more discrimi-
particular needs of each agency's mission.
nating evaluative process might have on the
Moreover, the planning and design process
classification of polychlorinated biphenyls
should permit participation by scientists and
(PCBs). EPA has classified PCBs, a family of
risk managers outside the federal govern-
chemicals with different formulations, as
ment. Input from outside experts would help
probable carcinogens. If any PCBs are found
ensure that the new methods fully reflect
in waste sites, cleanup efforts are required
current scientific understanding.
to reduce levels of the chemical to the ana-
Congress, which has an oversight role
lytical detection limit, or 0.0005 parts per
on matters related to the regulation of car-
million. Yet all PCBs have not been shown to
cinogens, also has responsibilities. One need
be equal in terms of carcinogenic effect in
is to reexamine the utility of the listing of
laboratory animals. In several animal studies,
suspected human carcinogens in the Annual
administration of high doses of PCBs with
Report on Carcinogens. In its current form,
less than 60 percent chlorine did not signifi-
the list of substances has little instructive
74
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
ISSUES IN FOCUS
value because it does not report the relevance
that supports risk-management decisions, re-
of animal studies to human biology and con-
search on the biochemical and cellular mech-
ditions of exposure. As a result, the list can
anisms that induce tumor formation in ex-
mislead. Yet the procedures used to gener-
perimental animals must be increased. Such
ate the list continue to serve as models for
investigations are crucial to efforts to ascer-
other agencies.
tain whether evidence of carcinogenicity in
Beyond reviewing the purpose of the
animals is directly relevant to determinations
Annual Report on Carcinogens, Congress
of human cancer hazards. Given the grow-
should direct agencies with regulatory re-
ing recognition of the value and utility of
sponsibilities to supplement upper-bound
such mechanistic data, it might be the ap-
risk assessments with scientific panels' in-
propriate time to institute research programs
terpretations of the data and their estimates of
jointly funded by government and industry.
human risk. This straightforward step to im-
The returns on this investment would be
prove the informational value of carcinogen
great. The information generated by studies
classifications and estimates of human cancer
on the mechanisms of carcinogenicity in an-
risk would enhance public understanding of
imals as well as people can greatly improve
the rationale behind regulatory measures.
the effectiveness and quality of public poli-
To strengthen the scientific foundation
cies on environmental carcinogens.
SUMMER 1992
75
BRUCE STOKES
Struggling for Supremacy
Head to Head: The Coming Economic Battle
Among Japan, Europe, and America
by Lester Thurow
New York: William Morrow & Co., Inc., 1992, 299 pp.
he New World Order so of-
still refuse to accept their loss of hegemony, it
I
ten mentioned by President
will be a useful wakeup call. And for Thurow,
George Bush is not a rhetori-
dean of MIT's Sloan School of Management
cal flourish crafted by White
and the author of a number of commercially
House speechwriters to in-
successful "serious" works such as The Zero-
spire allied cooperation in the
Sum Society, this study is obviously intended
Persian Gulf War, but a practical economic
to raise the consciousness of the book-reading
reality that is likely to define the last decade
public on these issues.
of the 20th century and beyond. Contrary to
But for those already conversant with
fervent Bush administration hopes, however,
the Japanese challenge and the more recent
the New World Order will not be a U.S.-cen-
rise of Europe, Head to Head is a disap-
LESTER
tered regime, according to Lester Thurow in
pointment. Thurow fails to give the reader
SOCIETY
his new book Head to Head: The Coming
any real sense of the future complexity of
THUROW
Economic Battle Among Japan, Europe, and
international economic, strategic, and com-
The
America.
mercial relations in a world where Wash-
HEAD
Coming
Economic
Thurow argues convincingly that the
ington no longer makes the rules. His pre-
Battle
much-prophesied tri-polar world is finally
scriptions for U.S. recovery are hardly new.
Among
Japan,
upon us, and concludes that both Japan and a
And he does not wrestle with the tough ques-
HEAD
Europe,
and
united Europe, rising economic powerhouses,
tion of why such ideas, which have been
America
now have better claims to global leadership
around for some time, have not been adopted
than does the United States, a faltering eco-
by the United States in the face of clear and
nomic giant whose military power is in-
present relative economic decline.
creasingly irrelevant. Yet, as befits an ac-
tivist liberal economist, Thurow has a
The New World Market
number of recommendations for revitalizing
The United States' success in winning the
the U.S. economy so that it can reemerge as
Cold War altered the nature of the global
the world's leading economic force.
system, Thurow contends. The sudden col-
Head to Head is a convincing mar-
lapse of the Soviet threat, which had defined
shalling of data. For most Americans, who
international stature largely in military terms,
allowed economics to emerge as the new
yardstick. As the world's largest economy
and premier economic power since World
Bruce Stokes is the international economics corre-
War II, the United States would appear to
spondent for the National Journal. He is coauthor
with C. Michael Aho of the forthcoming book The
be well-positioned to dominate the future
European Challenge (Council on Foreign Relations).
global economy.
76
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
ISSUES IN FOCUS
But the rules governing economic com-
reminds his readers. And they "will not sur-
petition have changed dramatically in ways
prisingly write rules that favor those who
that may now favor Europe and Japan, writes
play the game the European way. That is as it
Thurow. A secure natural resource base, once
always has been." He predicts that other na-
the foundation of a strong economy, is now
tions will gradually adopt European stan-
less relevant to competitive success. A coun-
dards as the world's de facto commercial op-
try's legacy of past wealth, long a leading
erating system.
indicator of future well-being, has become
Moreover, he writes, "if the high sci-
less important since the emergence of global
ence of the former Soviet Union and the pro-
capital markets that enable nations to mobi-
duction technologies of the German-speaking
lize other people's money for their own pur-
world are added to the design flair of Italy
poses. The economies that produce key tech-
and France and a world-class London capital
nologies-microelectronics. biotechnology,
market efficiently directing funds to Europe's
new materials, telecommunications, avia-
most productive areas, something unmatch-
tion, robotics and advanced machine tools,
able will have been created."
and computers and their software-will be
Japan, as is patently obvious to even the
the winners in the 21st century. Emphasis
most casual observer, is an equally formi-
on product technology-inventing a new
dable foe. From 1986 to 1991, Japanese busi-
semiconductor-is being eclipsed by the im-
ness invested more than $3 trillion in new
portance of process technology-the ability
plant and equipment. Last year alone, after
to make the chip. And German/Japanese cap-
adjusting for inflation, Japanese industry in-
italism, which is more communitarian and
vested some $230 billion more than U.S.
producer-oriented, may prove more produc-
manufacturers. It now appears that Japan will
tive than Anglo-Saxon capitalism, with its
become the world's number one manufac-
emphasis on individualism and its consumer
turing power by the mid-1990s and surpass
orientation.
the United States as the world's largest econ-
International business competition that
omy early in the next decade.
focused on capturing niche markets, which
Yet Thurow thinks Japan's inherent
enabled countries to prosper by specializing
weaknesses may yet limit its global reach.
in one or two products, is now passé, Thurow
The society's inability to integrate others into
argues, supplanted by high-stakes head-to-
its culture and business relationships, evi-
head competition. "Niche competition is win-
denced by the lack of foreign investment,
win," he writes. "Head-to-head competition
the paucity of foreigners in leading positions
is win-lose. Not everyone will get those
in international Japanese firms, and the coun-
seven key industries."
try's growing immigration problems, hob-
The United States has failed to come to
bles its economic might. Moreover, despite
grips with these new economic realities and
repeated efforts to boost consumer spending
what they mean for its place in the world,
and make Japan more of a domestically
Thurow contends. He urges that it begin to
driven economy, the recent surge in exports
do so soon. "The economic problems of
underscores the fact that Japan remains fun-
playing catch-up are much harder than those
damentally an export-oriented economy
of playing keep-up," he says. "A smart coun-
whose influence will periodically suffer from
try
assumes the worst and starts playing
the retaliation of other countries that object to
keep-up early."
Japanese dominance of global markets.
On January 1, 1993, Europe will be-
come a single market of 380 million con-
Strategies for U.S. recovery
sumers. "Those who control the world's
To reverse the U.S. slide, Thurow places
largest market get to write the rules," Thurow
great emphasis on educational reform, argu-
SUMMER 1992
77
ing that the future belongs to the nations
This "trade management is not neces-
whose citizens are best prepared for it. The
sarily a synonym of trade reduction or elim-
United States now produces fewer than half
ination," he argues. "In fact, world trade in
as many Ph.D. engineers and scientists per
the new half century is apt to grow even
capita as it did in the early 1970s. Britain,
faster than it did in the last half century. Any
France, and Spain all spend more than twice
decline in trade between blocks will be more
as much as the United States on non-col-
than offset by more trade within the blocks."
lege-bound post-secondary skill develop-
ment; Germany more than three times as
More complications
much, Sweden almost six times as much.
The foregoing assertion is one that is in-
Thurow suggests an overhaul of tradi-
creasingly made by liberal economists such
tional school systems: raising teachers'
as Thurow and MIT's Paul Krugman, among
salaries, lengthening the school day, and elim-
others. Although it runs counter to orthodox
inating administrative overhead. He would
economic thinking, it has some theoretical
also plow more private and public money into
grounding. Nevertheless, it is a sufficiently
the training of non-college-bound young peo-
controversial statement, with profound im-
ple to prepare them for the technically so-
plications, that it is not enough to simply as-
phisticated production jobs that lie ahead.
sert that managed trade will lead to greater
In addition, Thurow would reform the
trade. It is only fair to the reader that the
structure of U.S. capitalism. He would allow
point be buttressed with some explanation
financial institutions to buy controlling in-
and documentation. Obviously, Thurow was
terests in firms, much as the Bush adminis-
worried about losing the nontechnical reader
tration proposed in its failed reorganization of
in obtuse economic arguments. But since
the banking industry. "They should be en-
what he is asserting is the modern economic
couraged to become so entwined that their
equivalent of declaring that the world is flat,
destinies cannot be separated," he writes.
it is incumbent upon him to provide a bet-
"American firms must match up against
ter argument if he is to be convincing.
the business groups of Germany and Japan,"
Similar problems further limit the use-
he says. He suggests permitting interlock-
fulness of Head to Head. Numerous new
ing vertical business groups-like the
studies have come out in the past year ana-
keiretsu in Japan-among industries and their
lyzing the implications of the emergence of
suppliers; a system not unlike the old Ford
Japan and Europe, but precious little of that
Motor Company model, in which Henry
is evident in this book. The implications for
Ford owned the mines that produced the iron
monetary affairs alone are tantalizing enough
ore that was turned into steel in his steel
to draw in even the most economically illit-
plants that went into his cars that were sold
erate reader. For example, because of the rise
through his dealerships. Horizontal business
of the yen and the deutsche mark, by the end
groups among competitors selling the same
of the decade U.S. manufacturers may have
product would still be against the law under
to pay yen for many of their imported com-
Thurow's proposal.
ponent parts and may be forced to invoice
Thurow also calls for an ill-defined sys-
many of their exports in deutsche marks or a
tem of trading blocks. Although such man-
new European currency, the ecu. U.S. firms
aged trade is anathema to most economists,
will then be exposed to sudden exchange rate
Thurow says not to worry. "The GATT-Bret-
shifts that can wipe out anticipated profits
ton Woods trading system is dead," he
overnight.
charges. In the future, "trade will be much
With several comparable currencies to
freer within the blocks, but trade between the
choose from, currency traders will conduct a
blocks will be managed by governments."
daily referendum on the efficacy of U.S. fis-
78
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
ISSUES IN FOCUS
cal and monetary policies, driving down the
This European prescription for eco-
dollar whenever they disagree with govern-
nomic health directly affects U.S. economic
ment actions. This dollar volatility will com-
interests. The well-being of the U.S. econ-
plicate management of the U.S. economy in
omy is increasingly dependent on exports to
an unprecedented manner.
Europe, and policies that hamper rapid Eu-
U.S. leverage in international mone-
ropean economic recovery from any future
tary negotiations will erode. With the price
recession will slow a U.S. rebound from any
of money in Asia increasingly determined
U.S. recession. Moreover, with the Bank of
in Tokyo, and with European interest rates
Japan committed to similarly austere poli-
dictated by developments in Frankfurt,
cies, U.S. domestic economic policy options
Washington will lose much of its ability to
will be limited in the future because the use
get other nations to fiddle with their do-
of debt- and inflation-producing fiscal policy
mestic economic policies to aid the U.S.
to jump-start the U.S. economy will risk a
economy.
run on the dollar.
Recent developments in Europe also
Europe's commitment to reduce the gap
pose challenges to the United States that
between its rich and its poor by massive
Thurow fails to mention. An economically
transfers of capital from Germany and France
resurgent Europe is struggling to define a
to Greece and Portugal will also improve the
military role for itself. A strengthened Eu-
competitiveness of European companies who
ropean military would undoubtedly change
stand to benefit from subsidized roads or tax
the nature and scope of the North Atlantic
write-offs for smokestack scrubbers. If the
Treaty Organization (NATO). Europe is
Uruguay Round of trade negotiations is not
likely to increasingly speak with one voice
completed, no new multilateral rules will be
in NATO, hampering U.S. leadership of the
in place to limit the trade-distorting effects of
defense community, which has long de-
such subsidies. And the stage will be set for
pended on playing one European nation off
new transatlantic trade tensions.
against another. Before the end of the
Finally, Thurow provides no assessment
decade, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Po-
of the difficulty of achieving the reforms he
land are likely to join the European Com-
has proposed for the U.S. economy. Verti-
munity and thus gain admission to the West-
cal keiretsu will raise opposition from the
ern European Union (the emerging European
consumer movement. School reform will run
security arm) and possibly to NATO, creat-
into the teacher unions. How can these ob-
ing further complications. Are the Ameri-
stacles be overcome?
can people willing to go to war to protect
Although Head to Head fails to probe
Poland's disputed eastern border with the
these and other implications of the tri-polar
newly independent Lithuania?
world, it is a timely reminder that the world
In addition, successful completion of
is now in a three-way competitive race whose
the European union will require dramatic
outcome may not be as satisfying as the end
economic convergence among the European
of the Cold War. With the Japanese econ-
economies. Governments will be obliged to
omy currently in free fall and Europe pre-
reduce national deficits and force a conver-
occupied with its own recession and the dif-
gence of national inflation rates to ensure no
ficulties of integrating Eastern Europe into
wide regional economic disparities in the
the European Community, the United States
new Europe. This effort will hamper future
still has time to take Thurow's warning to
European governments' ability to lift their
heart. But if the effort is not made now, the
economies out of recession by deficit spend-
opportunity posed by Europe's and Japan's
ing or tax cuts.
economic problems may be squandered.
SUMMER 1992
79
Editor's Journal
KEVIN FINNERAN
When Industry Speaks
ince its inception, Issues has de-
recruit industry authors and highlight their
S
fined itself as a forum where
contributions. This is the first of four issues
experts from government,
that will each contain a special section ded-
academe, industry, and the gen-
icated to addressing industry's particular
eral public can discuss public
concerns and to including articles by indus-
policy concerns. Unfortunately,
try authors. In many ways this section will
those who work in industry-and who make
not differ from what is usually in Issues.
up almost half of our subscribers-have been
Health care financing, education, federal
the least well represented in the pages of the
R&D, the environment, and many other core
magazine. The editors have pursued potential
policy concerns are of direct interest to in-
industry authors at least as vigorously as they
dustry. But by extending this special invi-
have authors from the other sectors, but the
tation, we hope to attract more business par-
low success rate has been a nagging disap-
ticipation.
pointment.
Of course, by joining the public debate,
Our failure is not entirely surprising.
industry authors invite rebuttal. They must
Publishing articles is not the business of in-
compete as equals with all others in the bat-
dustry as it is of academe. And unlike gov-
tle of ideas, and they will not always pre-
ernment officials, industry leaders do not
vail. The public scoffs at the suggestion that
succeed or fail on the basis of how they in-
what is good for General Motors is good for
fluence policy disputes. It's not that industry
the country, but it also realizes that what is
leaders do not have well-informed opinions
good for General Motors must be a consid-
on important topics, but that they do not typ-
eration in formulating policy. Our belief is
ically see publishing an article as the way to
that the nation is more likely to arrive at ef-
advance these opinions.
fective policies if all stakeholders participate
Rather than resign ourselves to this re-
fully and openly in the policymaking
ality, we decided to make a special effort to
process.
80
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
STEVEN AFTERGOOD
The Perils
of Government Secrecy
Excessive
classification
of information
Last year the federal government
wastes money,
hampering this country's economic
classified 7,107,017 documents, an
handcuffs innovation,
competitiveness. It has also hin-
average of more than 19,000 docu-
dered scientific progress on issues
ments per day. All of this informa-
and makes a mockery
critical to the world's health, such
tion, along with countless volumes
of democracy.
as global warming.
from past years, is withheld from
Worst of all, secrecy through
the public ostensibly because its
classification is commonly abused
disclosure would damage national
by the president and the executive
security. But classified files are increasingly overflow-
branch as a mechanism for avoiding congressional or
ing with records of policy decisions, historical and
public oversight. Secrecy has widened the gap be-
budget documents, and reams of environmental data
tween Americans and their government, retarding in-
that could in no way compromise this nation's safety.
formed public debate on the major policy issues of
Government information policy is in disarray.
our day.
Overclassification is widespread. The system has be-
It is time to look critically at what is being clas-
come intolerably inefficient and costly. The Depart-
sified, reconsider national security needs in the wake
ment of Defense recently estimated, for example, that
of the Cold War, and reevaluate government secrecy
in 1989 the cost of protecting classified information in
practices in light of broad national economic and en-
industry alone reached an astonishing $13.8 billion.
vironmental as well as military goals.
More important, at a time when economic security
is far more at risk than military security, secrecy has
A system out of control
prevented huge sectors of the nation's technology base
No one disagrees that certain types of information,
from being applied to the commercial marketplace,
such as the design of weapons of mass destruction,
must be protected against disclosure. It is clear, how-
ever, that government secrecy now extends far beyond
Steven Aftergood is a senior research analyst at the Federation of
the measures needed for reasonable protection of na-
American Scientists (FAS), where he directs the FAS Project on
tional security. Though the full scope of the classifica-
Secrecy & Government.
tion system is itself classified, its contours can be de-
SUMMER 1992
81
duced from the obstacles increasingly encountered by
sphere for executive branch action that is unchecked
citizens trying to gain access to information.
by public awareness.
Anyone who doubts that the system has grown out
of control need only note a few examples of the absur-
The "black" budget. Public policy researchers es-
dities that exist within it.
timate that in recent years approximately 15 percent of
the Defense Department budget for weapons acquisi-
Secret historical documents. Innumerable govern-
tion has been classified. Like all agencies, the Defense
ment documents from past decades remain locked
Department must present its annual budget to Con-
away from historians, scholars, and the public. The
gress and ask for an appropriation. However, money
recent controversy over withholding of documenta-
for classified work is handled separately, in an appen-
tion concerning the assassination of President Ken-
dix, which is seen only by certain members of the
nedy dramatizes the situation, and yet it is far from uni-
Armed Services Committees and Defense Appropria-
que; such secrecy is systematic and pervasive. And it is
tions Subcommittees. In this way, extra money is
by no means limited to recent events. At the National
slipped past full congressional oversight, and the way
Archives the oldest classified military document as of
the money is subsequently spent is kept secret. The
last year was dated April 15, 1917, and concerns U.S.
system allows secrecy to envelope the cost of a pro-
troop movements in Europe during World War I.
gram, its purpose, even its existence.
If classification of this document is to be taken
Not surprisingly, abuses often result from this
seriously, we would have to infer that disclosure of the
practice. Numerous program failures, cost overruns,
information could compromise national security. Such
and instances of fraud have been attributed to the black
an inference is patently absurd. This suppression of
budget. Excessive secrecy was implicated by congres-
history by the U.S. government is particularly ironic in
sional investigators in the collapse of the A-12 naval
view of the Russian government's great easing of ac-
attack aircraft program, which cost taxpayers several
cess to historical documentation.
billions of dollars. The A-12 program, initiated in the
1980s, was canceled in 1991 by Defense Secretary
Secret presidential directives. Classified presiden-
Richard Cheney after he found out that he was being
tial directives have been used for decades to establish
misinformed about it. The program had encountered
U.S. policy in many diverse areas. Some of the Nation-
significant cost overruns, schedule delays, and design
al Security Directives (NSDs) issued by the Bush ad-
problems that were allowed to persist unabated be-
ministration treat space policy, telecommunications,
cause its "special access" classification blocked re-
Soviet immigration policy, counter-narcotics (the war
sponsible oversight.
on drugs), and sundry other topics.
What makes the black budget all the more galling
The very existence of these basic policy docu-
is that in some cases it is only the American public that
ments, never mind their contents, is consistently with-
is kept in the dark. In April, while the Air Force main-
held from Congress and the citizenry, even though in
tained silence about a classified space launch, details
many cases they commit government resources. Until
of the launch were announced by Tass radio in Mos-
May of this year not a single Bush administration NSD
cow two days in advance. Tass identified the launch
had ever been made public; at that time President
date and location, launch vehicle, and purported mis-
Bush, under pressure, partially declassified NSD 26,
sion. With subtle irony perhaps, the information was
which concerns the U.S. policy on Iraq. As a recent
broadcast in English.
General Accounting Office report noted, "We do not
know how many NSDs have been issued by the Bush
Secret environmental impact data. The Depart-
administration
[I]t is impossible to satisfactorily
ment of Energy (DOE) has been notorious for with-
determine how many NSDs
make and implement
holding data on health effects at its nuclear weapons
U.S. policy and what those policies are."
production facilities. Beyond that, however, few
The secrecy imposed upon NSDs has little to
people are aware that the Departments of Defense and
do with their content. It is automatic. Classification in
Energy can withhold environmental impact reports
this case simply establishes an extra-Constitutional
from the public. No matter how potentially dangerous
82
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
GOVERNMENT SECRECY
a proposed project may be, infor-
formed well enough to justify their
mation about its hazards can be
enormous expenditures.
concealed.
No information,
It is difficult to say how wide-
spread this practice might be,
regardless of its
Intelligence product. Not only
is the amount of intelligence mon-
though it is known to go beyond
classification, should
ey a secret, the entire output of the
the occasional classified appendix.
In one recent case, all environmen-
be withheld from
massive intelligence bureaucracy is
also secret. Most of its findings-its
tal documentation concerning a
the Congress
"product"-are provided to just a
proposed nuclear rocket ground-
on national security
few individuals in the executive
test facility in Nevada was clas-
branch and even fewer in Congress.
sified at such a high level that the
grounds.
Yet the intelligence agencies collect
Energy Department in 1991 re-
whole categories of data, from
fused even to confirm or deny its
economics to agriculture, that could
existence. Similarly, the very exist-
be useful to the public sector.
ence of a Defense Department program on nuclear
More disturbing is that by virtue of its classifica-
rocket propulsion would have remained classified but
tion, intelligence information, which is often a fun-
for the leak of documents to the media last year. Ac-
damental driver of national policy, is exempt from in-
cording to one program official, secrecy was con-
dependent critique, which prevents any check against
sciously motivated by the desire to avoid the public
mistaken information. Partially as a result, there have
controversy often associated with nuclear programs.
been serious government failures on the largest issues
of our time.
Intelligence budget. There are more than a dozen
Senator Moynihan attributes the recurring defects
intelligence agencies within the government, of which
in intelligence analysis to the absence of an effective
the Central Intelligence Agency is only one. Others in-
mechanism for self-correction. "The secrecy system
clude offices in the Armed Services, the Defense In-
got us to the point where in 1987, two years before the
telligence Agency, the National Security Agency, and
Berlin Wall came down, the CIA was reporting that
the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO), which is
per capita income in East Germany was higher than in
responsible for satellite reconnaissance. In what may
West Germany. If you believed that, you will believe
be the worst-kept secret in government, the very name
anything, and we did."
and existence of the NRO are classified.
A more open intelligence program would help
The total aggregate budget for these agencies is
prevent such lapses. Indeed, late last year the CIA
secret because, the CIA says, intelligence sources and
prepared a report on how the agency might achieve
methods would be revealed if the budget were dis-
greater openness-and then classified the report. The
closed. This strains credulity; merely indicating a bud-
vacuousness of this reflexive secrecy (and, in the
get figure would reveal nothing to compromise intel-
author's opinion, the CIA's openness initiative itself)
ligence sources and methods.
became evident when the report was eventually
Senator Daniel P. Moynihan, a former member of
released as the result of public pressure. A predom-
the Senate Intelligence Committee, recently stated
inantly open intelligence program could be vigorously
that, "The American people would be baffled if they
evaluated from many points of view, yielding a higher-
knew the true size and extent of the intelligence
quality, more reliable, and more useful product.
budget. Boggled."
In fact, the total budget is commonly estimated to
How it got so bad
be about $30 billion per year. How is it that official
Although there has always been some degree of
disclosure of such a number would jeopardize the lives
secrecy in American government, it was only at the
of American agents or sensitive technologies? It
beginning of the Cold War that secrecy began to reach
wouldn't. What it would do is allow more Americans
significantly beyond military information and to be-
to ask whether the intelligence agencies have per-
come an institutionalized part of the U.S. bureaucracy.
SUMMER 1992
83
In September 1951, President Truman issued Execu-
"serious damage." And top secret information is
tive Order 10290, which for the first time established
defined as that which could cause "exceptionally
a classification system that encompassed civilian as
grave damage." Restrictions on access to information
well as military agencies. It authorized any executive
are increased, as are protective measures for storage,
branch agency to classify information and defined a
communication, and handling, in accordance with the
vague standard for classified information as "official
classification level. Before anyone can see informa-
information the safeguarding of which is necessary in
tion at any of the three levels, he or she must have the
the interest of national security."
appropriate security clearance and must have an iden-
Significantly, the classification of security-related
tifiable "need to know."
information is not founded on any statutory law. It is
There is, in effect, a fourth level-special ac-
defined unilaterally by executive order. Nuclear
cess-which carries a degree of secrecy beyond that
weapons design information and related topics, in con-
of ordinary classification. In essence it means "this is
trast, are protected by law under the Atomic Energy
only for those with a need to know, and we're not kid-
Act, first passed by Congress in 1946.
ding this time." In many cases the very existence of a
The classification system has been revised several
special access program is classified. Hence the com-
times by succeeding presidents. Until the 1980s, the
monly used, unofficial term "black program." Usually,
scope of information subject to classification gradual-
special access is applied to certain weapons acquisi-
ly narrowed as the criteria were tightened. Commit-
tion programs and intelligence and military opera-
ment to openness peaked under the Carter administra-
tions.
tion. President Carter decreed that information could
One immediate problem with this scheme is its
not be classified unless its disclosure could cause
intrinsically subjective character. There is no com-
"identifiable" damage to national security; he in-
prehensive definition of "national security," much less
stituted a "balancing test" by which even classified in-
a definition of "damage." One result, according to
formation would be disclosed if there was a substan-
Steven Garfinkel, the Director of the federal Informa-
tial public interest in doing so; he stated that
tion Security Oversight Office, is a certain blurring
scientific information not clearly related to national
among the classification levels. Garfinkel, whose of-
security could not be classified; and he mandated a
fice is nominally responsible for supervising im-
program of systematic declassification reviews by ex-
plementation of the classification system, says, "The
ecutive branch agencies.
classification levels, especially secret and confiden-
But these evolutionary steps were undone by
tial, are almost interchangeable. For that reason,
President Reagan. Reagan's 1982 Executive Order
there's a lot of secret stuff that's not that sensitive, and
12356, the basis for today's classification system,
there's a lot of confidential stuff that is."
which eliminated the Carter-era threshold of identifi-
Subjectivity is all the more problematic because
able damage, eliminated the balancing test, deleted the
classification authority is widely dispersed and is sub-
prohibition on withholding scientific information, and
ject to little accountability. As of last year, there were
curtailed systematic declassification review, dictating
about 6,500 individuals scattered across the executive
that only the National Archives must conduct such
branch who were authorized to classify information.
review. The Reagan order makes it plain that, when in
The heads of most executive-branch agencies are
doubt, information is to be classified. And if there is a
given power by the president to classify; they in turn
question about the level of classification, the higher
can delegate this authority throughout their depart-
level is to be adopted.
ments. According to government statistics, by far the
The executive order defines three increasingly
largest number of classification decisions were made
stringent classification levels: confidential, secret, and
last year by the Department of Defense (61 percent),
top secret. The confidential level is supposed to be ap-
followed by the CIA (26 percent), the Department of
plied to "information, the unauthorized disclosure of
Justice (9 percent), the Department of State (3 per-
which reasonably could be expected to cause damage
cent), and others (1 percent).
to the national security." Secret information, the next
To a large extent, these individuals have carte
highest level, is that which could be expected to cause
blanche to classify as they please. At a rate of 19,000
84
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
GOVERNMENT SECRECY
new classifications each day, no
sion, and other fields. These missed
one even pretends that any substan-
opportunities represent a "negative
tial portion of these decisions are
As much as possible,
spinoff" phenomenon.
reviewed. Furthermore, the system
"bulk declassification"
A defense contractor that de-
encourages overclassification; the
velops a new technology within a
penalties for disclosing genuinely
of broad categories
black program can apply for a pa-
sensitive material can be severe,
from official censure to imprison-
of old information
tent. But under the Invention Se-
crecy Act of 1951, a defense agen-
ment under the Espionage Act. The
should be practiced.
cy (today defined as any DOD
penalties for unnecessary clas-
entity, the DOE, or the National
sification are virtually nonexistent.
Aeronautics and Space Admini-
Secrecy is further reinforced by the
stration) can impose a "secrecy
bureaucratic tendency to control information and to
order" on the application and withhold the patent, if
evade critical oversight.
it believes that patent approval could have a "detri-
mental" effect on national security. In FY 1991, a total
The need for greater openness
of 5,893 secrecy orders were in effect, up from about
In science and technology, the need for openness is
3,500 in 1980.
axiomatic. Without free and open communication, the
Remarkably, secrecy orders can also be applied to
cross-fertilization of ideas that is essential to progress
private individuals or businesses-referred to as "John
is inhibited and the peer-review process is crippled. A
Does"-that develop new technology independent of
1970 Report of the Defense Science Board's Task
government support. The defense agencies routinely
Force on Secrecy, a classic of sorts, declared that
scrutinize patent applications, then tell the U.S. Patent
"more might be gained than lost if our nation were to
and Trademark Office to inform an applicant that his
adopt-unilaterally, if necessary-a policy of com-
invention must be kept secret and that a patent may not
plete openness in all areas of information."
be granted. Even if a person or business withdraws the
This radical notion, put forward by eminent and
patent application, the prohibition against disclosure
politically conservative scientists including physicists
remains in effect.
Frederick Seitz and Edward Teller, is rooted in the
The issuance of new John Doe orders has sky-
recognition that openness is a source of strength, not
rocketed: in FY 1980 there were 43 new orders; in FY
weakness. Yet at a time when economic security is far
1991 there were 506. The Patent and Trademark Office
more at risk than military security, excessive govern-
recently reported a "dramatic increase in the number
ment secrecy serves to impede one of the nation's most
of secrecy orders imposed upon privately owned
important economic strengths-its capacity for tech-
patent applications."
nological innovation.
Such intervention is often likely to be self-defeat-
Overclassification prevents the introduction of
ing. It renders some of the most talented engineers in
many advanced technologies into the commercial
the nation technologically and economically sterile,
marketplace. Oblique reports in the trade press, notab-
since their products can never be sold or even used un-
ly Aviation Week & Space Technology, suggest that
less a defense agency decides it wants to acquire the
there are a number of emerging technologies de-
technology for its own classified needs.
veloped in black programs that have commercial
The sole argument in favor of technological se-
potential. Such reports refer, for example, to infrared
crecy is that it can preserve lead time before an adver-
sensors that do not require cryogenic cooling, which
sary can match or counter a particular advance. But
could improve by several orders of magnitude the sen-
proponents of this argument fail to acknowledge the
sitivity of environmental monitoring systems;
easing of international security tensions and fail to
electrostatic fields that condition air flow around
recognize the limited effectiveness of even the most
aircraft, which could dramatically reduce fuel costs for
stringent security measures.
commercial aviation; and advances in materials
Not only does overclassification impede eco-
science that could improve aircraft control, propul-
nomic competitiveness, it also prevents scientists and
SUMMER 1992
85
policymakers from using high technology to address
ticularly within the framework of the Strategic En-
some of the greatest challenges to humanity in our
vironmental Research and Development Program, a
time. Incredibly, with all the social and economic pres-
recent congressional initiative to direct some Defense
sure that surrounds the greenhouse effect, the richest,
Department resources to environmental problems.
most variegated sources of climatic information in the
Their efforts have begun to bear fruit, and access to
world-the extensive defense and intelligence data
such data has begun to improve. Not long ago, Senator
bases on global environmental conditions-remain
Gore got the U.S. Navy to agree to release its 30-year
largely inaccessible. Intelligence officials have been
data base of sonar measurements of polar ice caps;
reluctant even to acknowledge that the United States
given a more recent agreement between the U.S. Air
has an overhead reconnaissance capability at all.
Force and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Ad-
The classified "earth observing system" already
ministration, it appears that most of DMSP's data
in place is many times larger than NASA's proposed
will be permitted into the public domain. A recent
Earth Observing System (EOS), which would go into
presidential directive may clear the way for more
orbit in the late 1990s. For their own purposes, the
comprehensive access.
Departments of Defense and Energy have conducted
environmental monitoring from within the oceans, at
Toward reform
the planet's surface, from the atmosphere, and, espe-
The evolution of government secrecy proceeds in
cially, from space. In some cases, data bases extend
phases. In the beginning, it is threat-driven; it starts
back several decades, offering the potential for inex-
with the belief that disclosure of certain information
pensively assessing long-term environmental trends
could compromise national security. Controls are in-
as well as verifying various climatic models.
stituted to prevent that disclosure. But subsequently,
Yet secrecy in intelligence gathering is so hy-
the controls becomes bureaucratized and various
pertrophied that all this information has automatically
categories of information are reflexively classified. In
been withheld without challenge, at least until recent-
its latter, decadent phase, government secrecy bears
ly. "What is totally stupid," observed Representative
little or no relation to any identifiable threat.
George E. Brown, Jr. (D-Calif.), last year, "is that we
The classification system today has, for the most
have a classification system which persists in per-
part, long since ceased to be threat-driven. Information
petuating the fiction that this material is secret and that
is still routinely withheld from the public, accom-
such a fiction contributes to our national security."
panied by the statement that its disclosure "reasonably
Some of the relevant limited-access data that have
could be expected to cause damage to national
been publicly described are derived, for example, from
security." But this is increasingly a ritualistic incanta-
the Defense Meteorological Support Program
tion devoid of content. It is simply not true to assert
(DMSP) satellites, which produce visible and infrared
that disclosure of the number of presidential direc-
data, and from optical sensors on the network of
tives, or the movements of U.S. troops in World War I,
Global Positioning Satellites, which can provide infor-
or the $30 billion intelligence budget could in any
mation on cloud cover. Other systems, particularly in-
way place the country in jeopardy.
telligence satellites, are likely to have generated valu-
What is to be done? The present Cold War clas-
able yet inaccessible environmental data. Perhaps
sification system should be scrapped and replaced by
even more important, the intelligence agencies have
an information policy that is founded on genuine na-
unparalleled experience in data-base management,
tional security requirements. A new consensus must be
which could prove immensely useful in meeting the
achieved on the types of information that legitimately
challenges faced by the Earth Observing System Data
need to be classified, and everything else should be
and Information System (EOSDIS), which is to
released. In a democratic society, there must be a
process, archive, and distribute the data collected in
presumption in favor of openness.
NASA's EOS program.
What types of information should be classified?
Representative Brown, Senator Albert Gore (D-
Morton H. Halperin, director of the American Civil
Tenn.), and others have long advocated a relaxation of
Liberties Union's Washington office, has proposed
restrictions on government environmental data, par-
four categories that make simple sense:
86
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
GOVERNMENT SECRECY
Design and operational
Authorization bill to expand the
details of advanced weapons sys-
scope and accuracy of the publica-
tems.
We could remove the
tion of the Foreign Relations of the
Details of plans for military
authority to classify
United States series (the official
operations.
history of U.S. foreign policy) by
Details of ongoing diplo-
from perhaps
mandating new procedures for
matic negotiations.
Intelligence methods, in-
90 percent of the
declassification of pertinent docu-
ments. Currently, legislation is
cluding codes, technology, and
6,500 individuals
pending on disclosure of certain
identity of spies.
who have it.
files concerning the Kennedy as-
The narrowed scope and
sassination, and of some informa-
renewed credibility of classifica-
tion concerning nuclear weapons
tion along these lines would have
stockpiles.
the beneficial effect of providing
Any comprehensive attempt to
improved protection for information that could be
recast the classification system should include
truly vital to national security.
measures such as the following:
A new classification system will not come from
within. Mounting financial costs will force some in-
Reduce classification at the source. A critical step
cremental changes, and periodic controversies like
in achieving a policy based on openness is to drastical-
that concerning the Kennedy assassination will com-
ly curtail the production of new classified documents.
pel greater openness in highly specific areas, but more
Before dealing with the abundant residue of the past,
systematic change will not come voluntarily. Too
the continuing flow of classified materials should be
many people have a vested interest in the status quo.
stanched.
As one State Department classification official put it,
This will require the elaboration of new classifica-
"No one is going to streamline himself out of a job."
tion criteria, along the lines of the limited topics noted
Because classification is still entirely based on ex-
above, which can logically be traced to identifiable na-
ecutive order, adoption of new criteria could come
tional security threats. While the executive branch
simply with the arrival of a new administration that has
would remain free to handle information internally as
a different concept of national security and democracy.
it sees fit, the categories of information that could be
But a new administration might be tempted by the
withheld from the public must be drastically dimin-
realization that the classification system serves its
ished. Furthermore, no information, regardless of its
political interests by enabling it to shield programs
classification, should be withheld from the Congress
from congressional and public scrutiny.
on national security grounds.
In that case, substantive changes are likely to re-
Another way to reduce classification at the source
quire congressional action. The executive branch
would be to sharply cut the number of individuals
jealously guards its classification activities and ar-
authorized to classify information. A reduction of the
gues, implicitly or explicitly, that classification is sole-
6,500 classification authorities by perhaps 90 per-
ly its prerogative. A submissive Congress in recent
cent would go a long way toward imposing dis-
years has tended to agree. And yet there is no question
cipline on the process. Additional benefits would be
that Congress has all the power it needs to legislate a
lower costs and improved protection for truly sensi-
government-wide information policy, including new
tive information.
classification criteria. The passage of the Atomic Ener-
gy Act, which dictates the control of nuclear weapons
Implement bulk declassification of older docu-
design information, for example, would seem to pro-
ments. Once a new standard has been established, it
vide sufficient proof of that.
will be necessary to undo the abuses of the past.
There have already been some tentative forays in
The review and processing required to declassify
Congress toward easing secrecy restrictions. In 1991,
documents is costly and time-consuming. As much as
Congress included a provision in the State Department
possible, automatic "bulk declassification" of broad
SUMMER 1992
87
categories of old information should be practiced.
special-access category. This temptation to fraud and
This could be mandated by either executive order or
abuse led the House Armed Services Committee to
legislation.
conclude in 1991 that special access "is now adversely
A related measure is the establishment of what
affecting the national security it is intended to sup-
federal officials call a "drop-dead date" policy. This
port." It should be abolished.
would be a systematic declassification of documents,
with certain exceptions, once they reached a certain
Failure to rein in government secrecy will result in
age. According to Steven Garfinkel, director of the In-
enormous financial costs and constraints on scientific
formation Security Oversight Office, adoption of a
and technological ventures, and in damage to the
drop-dead date is under consideration in the executive
democratic process. When secrecy is unnecessarily
branch. But this idea has been kicked around before,
applied in important policy areas, the result is the cor-
and it is likely to remain "under consideration" in-
ruption of the nation's political discourse and the
definitely. Furthermore, Garfinkel says, if a drop-dead
stupefaction of its members.
date is ever voluntarily implemented by the execu-
Another result is a de facto information policy
tive branch, the term "is not going to be at the 20-
based on unauthorized disclosures of classified in-
year level and it's not going to be at the 30-year level,"
formation, or "leaks." The problem with such an ap-
but some longer period.
proach is that it presents a distorted picture of events,
Given the pivotal changes in international politics
since individuals that breach their commitment to
in the last several years, a period of perhaps five years
protect secret information generally do so selectively
would seem in order. Remarkably, the 1970 Defense
to advance some parochial interest. Already, leaked
Science Board Report on Secrecy advised that, "As a
documents are the currency of national security report-
general guideline, one may set a period between one
ing in Washington.
and five years for complete declassification."
One way or another, those who implement the
classification system need to come to grips with the
Eliminate the special-access classification sys-
realities of the present day. Secrecy is no longer an un-
tem. Another important interim step toward open
fortunate necessity, it has become a destructive habit.
government would be to eliminate the special-access
Openness in government is not a threat to national
category altogether.
security, or a concession to political opposition, it is the
In 1985, the General Accounting Office reported
foundation of the nation's political way of life and the
that there were between 5,000 and 6,000 active spe-
source of much of its strength.
cial-access contracts with industry. The Senate Armed
Services Committee reported in 1991 that, "Over time,
the vast expansion in the number of special access
programs
[has] led to serious negative consequen-
Recommended reading
ces." According to the report, these have included
General Accounting Office, "The Use of Presidential
failures of internal management (as was the case with
Directives to Make and Implement U.S. Policy."
the A-12 aircraft program); the shielding of numerous
GAO/NSIAD-92-72, January 1992.
small programs from congressional oversight by plac-
Morton H. Halperin and Daniel N. Hoffman, Top
ing them under a larger "umbrella" program that is
Secret: National Security and the Right to Know.
blithely classified; and refusal to provide access neces-
New Republic Books, 1977.
sary for proper oversight.
William B. Scott, " 'Black World' Engineers, Scien-
If thwarting oversight is the goal, special access is
tists Encourage Using Highly Classified Technol-
a success. A 1990 study by the House Armed Services
ogy for Civil Applications," Aviation Week &
Committee revealed that only 5 to 10 percent of all
Space Technology (March 9, 1992): 66.
special-access programs are actually reviewed in
Frederick Seitz, chairman, "Report of the Defense
depth by Congress. The prospect of evading congres-
Science Board Task Force on Secrecy." Office of
sional attention serves as an ongoing incentive for the
the Director of Defense Research and Engineer-
executive branch to place even more programs in the
ing, The Pentagon, July 1, 1970.
88
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
BOOKS
The rise and fall
sonal good fortune to know nearly
partly on PSAC's failure to give
all of the actors, but even SO I often
help to LBJ where he really wanted
of science advice
found myself thinking "SO that's
it-namely, to win the war in Viet-
how it happened."
nam and to help less favored edu-
Cardinal Choices, by Gregg
The high successes of science
cational institutions as well as those
Herken. New York and Oxford:
advising are here. They include the
in Cambridge and California. The
Oxford University Press, 1992,
work of Vannevar Bush and James
low points also include the prob-
315 pp.
Conant in finally getting the mighty
lems Lee DuBridge and Edward
Manhattan Project under way
David had with President Nixon,
Herbert York
during the Roosevelt administra-
largely stemming from the opposi-
tion, after Szilard's ambitious but
tion of some former PSAC leaders
Cardinal Choices is an excellent
essentially unsuccessful attempt to
and a few current members to some
book. It describes and analyzes the
do SO earlier. Also here are the suc-
of Nixon's most favored initiatives.
history of science advising at the
cesses of James Killian, George
At least two main threads,
presidential level from 1939, when
Kistiakowski, and Jerome Wiesner
each tracing the path of a still un-
Leo Szilard, with an assist from Ed-
resolved debate, run throughout
ward Teller, used Albert Einstein to
the book. One of these persistent
press his ideas about nuclear fission
Presidential Science
threads concerns arms control. The
on President Roosevelt, to the
CARDINAL
other is the struggle over what to do
present, wherein the same Edward
Advising from the
about strategic defense. These two
Teller continues to press his fre-
CHOICES
threads frequently intersect, of
quently idiosyncratic views about
course, and they are both fully
technological solutions to security
Atomic Bomb to SDI
explored in the book, but I have
problems on President Bush.
room here to take up only the first,
The book is rich in facts of the
which has a longer history.
what, when, where, and-especial-
ly-who, variety, and Gregg Her-
GREGG HERKEN
Arguing over arms control
ken, a historian at the Smithsonian
Even before the Bomb was
Institution, provides a reasonably
in guiding the responses of Presi-
dropped on Hiroshima, Niels Bohr
full and persuasive analysis of the
dents Eisenhower and Kennedy to
tried to warn Roosevelt about the
impact of science-based advice on
the Soviet technological chal-
dangers of a postwar arms race, and
our national history. I have had di-
lenge in general and Sputnik in
Szilard tried to urge restraint in its
rect contact with most of the events
particular.
use on Truman. After Hiroshima,
covered, and it has been my per-
The low points and frustrations
Robert Oppenheimer and I.I. Rabi
of science advising appear as well,
worked out the ideas that eventual-
including the inability of Bush and
ly led to the Baruch Plan, which
Conant to work with President
was never adopted. That plan
Herbert York joined the Manhattan Project
Truman as they had with FDR. Also
called for international control by
in 1943. In 1952, as an extension of his role
here is the frustrating relationship
the newly formed United Nations
as director of the Lawrence Livermore
Laboratory, he started service as a science
between Don Hornig and the Presi-
of virtually all of the science and
advisor at the highest national levels. He
dent's Science Advisory Commit-
technology deriving from nuclear
served on PSAC twice (1957-61 and
tee (PSAC) that he headed, on the
fission. However, the intrusions on
1964-68), cofounded DARPA (1958), was
one hand, and President Johnson
sovereignty that the plan implied
the first Director of Defense Research and
on the other. This mutual frustra-
Engineering (1958-61), and was chief
were totally unacceptable to Stalin
U.S. negotiator for a Comprehensive Test
tion was based partly on a near-
and probably would have been so
Ban (1979-81).
total mismatch in personalities and
to the U.S. Congress as well.
SUMMER 1992
89
Following the first Soviet A-
ted). This group supported Eisen-
exacerbated the already decade-old
bomb explosion in 1949 and the
hower's desire for progress in arms
struggle over the development of
renewed drive for the "Super-
control and powerfully influenced
an anti-missile missile-the ABM.
bomb" that resulted from it in this
the form and substance of the U.S.
This device had previously been
country, Oppenheimer, Conant,
response to Sputnik. This response,
opposed by some of us on practical
Rabi, Enrico Fermi, and others
which included the creation and in-
grounds; now others joined the op-
were urging restraint, while Ernest
itial direction of the National Aero-
position for reasons grounded in
Lawrence, Luis Alvarez, Teller,
nautics and Space Administration
ideas about arms control. This new
John von Neumann, and K.T. Com-
and the Defense Advanced Re-
debate took on a broader political
pton were successfully pushing an
search Projects Agency (DARPA),
dimension than heretofore, with
all-out effort to develop it. Even-
shaped the form and content of the
much testimony by scientists being
tually this particular struggle cost
civilian and military space and mis-
given before various House and
Oppenheimer his security clear-
sile programs for at least the next
Senate committees.
ance and produced a split in U.S.
decade. Prominent among these
In the late 1960s and early
science that is still visible 40 years
advisors were Killian, George Kis-
1970s, the ABM, with particular
later.
tiakowski, Jerome Wiesner, Hans
support from Foster, Harold Ag-
Eisenhower continued support
Bethe, Rabi, James Fisk, Edward
new, Albert Wohlstetter, and Don-
of the H-bomb program and, on the
Purcell, Wolfgang Panofsky, and,
ald Brennan almost became a re-
advice of Killian, von Neumann,
eventually, myself.
ality, but there was insufficient
and others, he gave the "highest na-
Kennedy continued along the
support for it in the Congress, lar-
tional priority" to the development
same general lines as Eisenhower,
gely because of opposing testi-
of the missiles for delivering such
with the same people backing him
mony by Killian, Kistiakowski,
bombs to their targets (first Atlas,
up. He favored a complete ban on
Panofsky, Ruina, and myself,
then Titan, Polaris, Thor, and Ju-
nuclear testing, but had to contend
among others. As a result, it be-
piter). Eisenhower himself was of
with a partially effective counterat-
came impossible for Nixon to pro-
two minds in these matters. He
tack by Teller, the Latter brothers
ceed with his plans to deploy the
regarded such developments as
(Albert and Richard), John Foster,
ABM in a big way, and he com-
being essential for U.S. national
and others in the nuclear world.
pletely changed his tack on the mat-
security in the short run, but he in-
Eventually, despite good support
ter, making the elimination of the
stinctively knew that these actions
from Harold Brown and Jack Ruina
ABM the centerpiece of the first
were leading us into a particularly
in the Pentagon, and from Frank
Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty
dangerous and undesirable future.
Long and George Rathjens in the
(SALT) in 1972.
Therefore, even while promoting
Arms Control and Disarmament
these developments, he sought out
Agency, Kennedy was forced to
Scientists lose their leverage
ways to restrain the arms race
compromise, and the result was the
The struggle over the ABM also
through negotiations and other in-
partial nuclear test ban of 1963.
marked the low point in a steady
ternational political means.
Ever since, the achievement of a
decline in the influence of inde-
During the first Eisenhower
total test ban has remained a major
pendent presidential science ad-
administration, Lawrence, Teller,
piece of unfinished business.
visors that had begun during the
David Griggs, von Neumann, and
Limits on offensive and defen-
Johnson administration. Nixon dis-
Willard Libby fought successfully
sive weapons systems, a notion that
banded PSAC after several current
against any limitations on weapons
had long been in the background,
and former members openly criti-
or weapons testing. When the
began to look more promising
cized his ABM plans as well as his
launching of the Soviet Sputnik set
during the Johnson administration.
proposal to develop a supersonic
off a national call to strengthen U.S.
More important, the idea of severe-
transport plane (SST). Fortunately,
science, Eisenhower brought in a
ly curtailing defenses as a means of
the absence of PSAC did not mean
largely new group of presidential
cutting the "arms race spiral" took
an end to progress on arms control.
advisors (mostly not nuclear-orien-
hold in this period. This new notion
In addition to SALT-type restric-
90
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
BOOKS
NEW FROM OXFORD
CARDINAL CHOICES
tions, limitations on nuclear testing
were expanded somewhat during
Presidential Science Advising from the Atomic
the Nixon and Ford administra-
Bomb to SDI
tions.
A Twentieth Century Fund Book
Jimmy Carter largely provided
GREGG HERKEN
his own inspiration for pushing
ahead with arms control. In these
"Engrossing and enlightening. Herken's clear, well-documented
efforts, he was assisted mainly by
writing and his close attention to the human element make for a
his Secretary of Defense, Harold
fascinating and wisely cautionary study."
-Kirkus Reviews
Brown. Brown in turn got the help
"Extraordinary Merits the atten-
and advice he needed largely from
tion of all citizens concerned about
lawyers and political scientists on
the future directions of a society
his staff, plus certain key members
increasingly dependent on techno-
of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. In ad-
logical choice."
dition, he was ably assisted in this
-David Z. Beckler,
CARDINAL Presidential Science
Carnegie Commission on Science,
area by mathematician William
Technology, and Government
Perry, his undersecretary, and nu-
clear physicist Gerald Johnson, an
"An important, well-researched
CHOICES Advising from the
old friend going back to Brown's
book-the first systematic histori-
Livermore years.
cal account of the science advisory
Atomic Bomb to SDI
Only in the particular matter
system in the United States."
-Daniel J. Kevles,
of the test ban did Carter look pri-
author of The Physicists
marily to Frank Press, his science
advisor. Press in turn gathered a
"The definitive chapter in the
group of sympathetic advisors, in-
saga of science and technology
GREGG HERKEN
cluding Panofsky, Richard Garwin,
advising in the White House."
-W.O. Baker
A Twentieth Century Fund Book
Ruina, J. Carson Mark, and myself
to assist him. At the same time,
$24.95, 317 pp.
Secretary of Energy James Schles-
inger strongly opposed a compre-
hensive test ban. With the assis-
tance of Harold Agnew, Roger
WONDERWOMAN
Batzel, Donald Kerr, and the
leadership of the Defense Nuclear
AND SUPERMAN
Agency, Schlesinger succeeded in
The Ethics of Human
WONDERWOMAN
slowing the process to a walk. At
Biotechnology
AND SUPERMAN
that point, the invasion of Af-
THE ETHICS OF HUMAN BIOTECHNOLOGY
ghanistan and the capture of the
JOHN HARRIS
U.S. embassy in Teheran totally
destroyed whatever possibilities
Since the birth of the first test-tube baby,
Louise Brown, in 1977, we have seen
still remained.
truly remarkable advances in biotechnol-
During his first administration,
ogy. In Wonderwoman and Superman,
Ronald Reagan, urged on by Teller
John Harris offers a thorough analysis of
and science advisor Jay Keyworth,
the moral dilemmas created by this
staunchly opposed any form of
revolution in molecular biology.
JOHN HARRIS
arms control. In his second admin-
$22.95, 271 pp.
istration, however, he made sub-
stantial progress in some areas of
At better bookstores. To charge, call 1-800-451-7556 (M-F, 9-5 EST)
OXFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS
SUMMER 1992
arms control, but no thanks were
On this topic, Herken departs
invited to pay tribute to Teller was
due any scientists or science-based
from his objective historian's role
Andrei Sakharov, who had headed
advice. Progress then derived from
by arguing that the nation still badly
the Soviet development of the
three factors: first, Reagan's own
needs the kind of independent and
hydrogen bomb. In frail health
visceral dislike of nuclear arms and
at least partly disinterested advice,
nuclear deterrence; second, the
especially on national security mat-
support of a small cadre of non-
ters, that the science advising ap-
scientists, especially Paul Nitze;
paratus provided in its "glory
TELLERS
third, and most important, the rise
days." Such advice, Herken sug-
of Gorbachev. Today, further ad-
gests, would be more even-handed
WAR
vances in arms control are due very
and less biased than that generated
largely to the collapse of the So-
by either the bureaucracy or the
viet Union, though the National
military-industrial complex. I agree
The Top-Secret Story
Behind the
Academy's Committee on Internal
with his analysis of this matter,
Star Wars Deception
Security and Arms Control, chaired
and I think most other scientists
WILLIAM J.BROAD
by Michael May (former director
will also.
WINNER or THE PULITZER PRIZE
of the Lawrence Livermore Lab-
Unfortunately, however, I also
oratory) has probably been of some
believe that a return to the glory
from the repeated hunger strikes
help.
days of science advising can hap-
that had been his only means of
The role of the scientific com-
pen only in the wake of another
resistance during his long exile in
munity during this 50-year history
Sputnik-like surprise, some unwel-
Gorky, and clearly out of place in
of arms control efforts can be sum-
come event that challenges the
his ill-fitting business suit among
marized in two sentences: In the
political leadership and convinces
the jewel-bedecked women and
beginning, science advisors and the
it that it really needs the kind of ad-
tuxedo-clad men, Sakharov spoke
initiatives they promoted were ab-
vice that only a PSAC can give.
respectfully of the man who had led
solutely crucial to getting the arms
And that, in brief, is the kind of
the U.S. program. But he warned
control process started and to ac-
first-rate unbiased advice, unfil-
that Teller's support for the Stra-
complishing most of the treaties
tered by lower bureaucratic levels,
tegic Defense Initiative was a
now in effect. Today, scientists and
that Roosevelt, Eisenhower, and
"grave error." Deployment of a
scientific advice play only a minor
Kennedy sought and received from
space-based defense system, Sak-
role in the process.
their advisors.
harov argued, would destabilize the
Why is this so? Although the
nuclear standoff-if it could be
specific problems that occurred
Brilliant lies
made to work at all before bank-
during the Johnson and Nixon ad-
rupting the superpowers.
ministrations were important fac-
Teller's War: The Top-Secret
Sakharov left immediately fol-
tors, the steady buildup within the
Story Behind the Star Wars
lowing his remarks; Teller took the
various executive departments of
Deception, by William J. Broad.
podium. He began his speech by
internal capabilities for dealing
New York: Simon and Schuster,
reminding the audience that he
with technical issues has made ex-
1992, 296 pp.
continued to work in lasers and nu-
ternal part-time advice seem less
clear weapons, whereas Sakharov,
necessary. As a result, scientific ad-
Robert L. Park
whose security clearance had been
vice now comes largely from mid-
lifted by the Kremlin 20 years ear-
level government employees who
The occasion was a 1988 gathering
lier, was hopelessly out of touch
view issues from within the con-
of Washington's conservative elite
fines of bureaucracy, not from inde-
to honor physicist Edward Teller
pendent scientists who are much
as "a patriot who has combined
more likely to have fresh and un-
profound moral judgment with
Robert L. Park is professor of physics at
biased viewpoints.
political wisdom." Among those
the University of Maryland.
92
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
BOOKS
with these matters. The maneuver
Teller has attained mythic stature.
failure going back to his original
was standard Teller: Although he
For half a century, with the threat of
concept for a thermonuclear bomb.
publicly deplores secrecy, Teller
nuclear war shaping every world
Teller's version was eventually
repeatedly takes refuge behind it.
event, Teller and the bomb became
abandoned as impractical; the first
"If only you knew what I know," he
almost synonymous.
H-bomb was based on the ideas of
will say regretfully, "I wish I could
At 84, Teller's power to hold
Stanley Ulam.
tell you."
center stage seems undiminished.
Teller in those days produced a
In his first public comment on
His bushy eyebrows are white, but
continuous stream of unconven-
William Broad's new book, Teller's
he has lost none of his passion. He
tional ideas on an incredibly wide
War, the aging star warrior was at it
recently testified before a congres-
range of subjects. But few of his
again. He told David Saltonstall of
sional committee on the issue of
ideas were practical. He was pro-
the Tri-Valley Herald, "There is on
cooperation with the former Soviet
ductive only when he was teamed
the one hand Bill Broad. There is
Union in space. Physically unim-
up with great physicists such as
on the other hand Bush, Yeltsin,
posing, he almost disappeared be-
Hans Bethe and Freeman Dyson,
and I. Who do you think is better in-
hind the witness table. But as he
who forced him to confront reality.
formed?" It was another classic
began to speak, softly at first, there
As Broad says, "He himself had
evasion, for the issue addressed by
was a hush; everyone present
little or no ability to recognize
Broad's book is not whether Teller
strained to catch each word. His
brilliance among the fantastic,
was informed, but whether he
voice gradually rose until his con-
swirling array of concepts he gave
deliberately misinformed others.
clusions burst forth like explosions,
the world."
In Teller's War, Broad carefully
punctuated by both fists crashing
But after the Oppenheimer af-
documents the deliberate decep-
down on the table.
fair, his contact with leading
tions in Teller's promotion of a
At the hearing, Teller managed
physicists was abruptly cut off. Iso-
nuclear x-ray laser-the center-
to turn his testimony into a promo-
lated at the Lawrence Livermore
piece of the original "Star Wars"
tion for "Brilliant Eyes," a scheme
Laboratory, which was created for
version of the Strategic Defense
to orbit vast swarms of compact ob-
him, he surrounded himself with
Initiative-and his subsequent
servation satellites that could peer
sycophants who rarely questioned
proselytizing for its successor, a
into every backyard in the world.
his judgments. His isolation be-
weapon dubbed "Brilliant Peb-
By cooperating with the former
came almost total after he began
bles." The book is a revealing se-
Soviet Union, he argued, we would
collaborating with a brash young
quel to Broad's earlier volume, The
be able to use the Energia rocket to
physicist named Lowell Wood. It is
Star Warriors. That book was writ-
launch all these satellites. Follow-
the sort of disastrous collaboration
ten while Teller's misinformation
ing his testimony, the almost-
that comes when two people share
campaign promoting x-ray laser
reverential congressmen recessed
the same flaws. Like Teller, Wood
weapons was at its peak. Broad
the hearing to pose for photog-
suffers from brilliance without
now acknowledges that The Star
raphers with this withered genius,
judgment. Far different from the
Warriors unknowingly aided that
whom I.I. Rabi once described as
cool-headed scientists that kept
campaign. Apparently determined
"a danger to all that's important."
Teller on track in the early years,
not to be used again, Broad has
Wood overflows with outrageous
compiled a remarkably complete
An unblemished record
ideas of his own. Teller gave Wood
record of Teller's central role in the
of failure
access to power; Wood, with the
Star Wars deception.
To explain his consistently exag-
help of a strange assortment of
But the real story is Teller him-
gerated claims, Teller sarcastically
young disciples (the "star warriors"
self. There is no more complex or
confesses to the "great crime of op-
profiled in Broad's earlier book),
fascinating subject. Endowed with
timism," but it won't wash. For all
provided renewal of the wellspring
a fertile imagination, an intuitive
his celebrity and genius, behind
of ideas, mostly wacky, that had
grasp of complex scientific issues,
Edward Teller stretches an almost
begun to dry up in Teller.
and a charisma that defies analysis,
unblemished record of technical
The sad product of their col-
SUMMER 1992
93
laboration was SDI and the nuclear
asteroids raining death and destruc-
ready in "parking orbits," while
x-ray laser. And when the myth of
tion on Earth at a rate of perhaps
Teller called for a program to ob-
the x-ray laser could no longer be
one every year. If the technology
literate asteroids that don't threaten
sustained, it was simply replaced,
exists to stop this cosmic bombard-
Earth as practice for the real thing.
without comment or apology, by
ment, he declared, we have a moral
That would make it possible, Teller
Brilliant Pebbles. Apparently un-
obligation to employ it. His solu-
said, to safely test a super H-bomb,
troubled by this classic bait-and-
tion: A fleet of battle stations fixed
10,000 times more powerful than
switch merchandising, national
in Earth orbit to detect the ap-
any detonated on Earth. It was Ed-
leaders who had been gulled by
proaching asteroids and then launch
ward Teller's 84th birthday. After
Star Wars now embraced Brilliant
interceptors armed with powerful
all these years he was still seeking
Pebbles with the same fervor. It
nuclear warheads. "You got a prob-
vindication for his plan to build the
was an amazing demonstration of
lem?" a colleague once remarked,
"super."
Teller's ability to remain standing
"Eddie's got a bomb!"
In the weeks following publi-
amid the rubble of his ideas. Broad
Somehow the annual carnage
cation of Broad's important book,
has performed a public service in
from asteroid impacts seems to
the story of the fearsome x-ray laser
bringing this story out into the
have been missed by the press. In-
finally came to an end. Congress
open.
deed, there is not a single account
had eliminated directed energy
in recorded history of a human
weapons as a line item in the SDI
Menacing meteorites
killed by a meteorite. It is not that
budget in 1990, but research went
Undaunted by Broad's careful
the asteroids do not strike, but most
on at Livermore at a low level,
documentation of the facts sur-
explode on impact with the upper
using general research funds.
rounding Star Wars and Brilliant
atmosphere. Fragments may reach
Recent top-secret "leaks" claimed
Pebbles, Teller and Wood continue
Earth's surface at terminal velo-
progress in an apparent effort to
their efforts to introduce weapons
city, occasionally punching a hole
save the program, but on May 12,
into space. As Teller had once
in some farmer's barn or frighten-
1992, SDI officials quietly in-
promoted such nonmilitary uses of
ing a cow. When an asteroid does
formed Congress that no further in-
the bomb as digging harbors or
penetrate far enough to cause
vestment in the x-ray laser is
freeing natural gas deposits by frac-
damage, as with the Tunguska im-
planned. R.I.P.
turing subterranean formations,
pact in 1908, there is a better than
Wood and Teller now hawk other
90 percent chance that it will be
applications of SDI technology.
over the ocean or some remote
"Greenprint"
With the Cold War ending, they
uninhabited area. Asteroids of a
for the future
propose to turn their weapons away
size that might have more than
from Earth and aim them at killer
local consequences come along
Earth in the Balance: Ecology
asteroids. Those who had defended
perhaps once every million years—
and the Human Spirit, by
America against the Evil Empire
about as long as humans have in-
Senator Al Gore. New York:
would now defend Earth itself
habited the planet.
Houghton Mifflin, 1992, 407 pp.
against the cosmos.
On such a time scale, space-
based defenses make little sense.
Kathleen Courrier
Teller's first public comments
on the asteroid threat were made a
The lifetime of an untended satel-
few years ago in a speech at George
lite is only about 10 years. Between
As befits the work of a professional
Washington University marking
major impacts, therefore, you
politician, Earth in the Balance-
the fiftieth anniversary of the dis-
might expect to put up 100,000
Senator Al Gore's new book on
covery of nuclear fission. Appar-
generations. Nonetheless, at a re-
the environment-is nothing if not
ently relying on an unpublished
cent workshop on asteroid mitiga-
ambitious. In it, Gore analyzes the
analysis by Roderick Hyde, a
tion, Wood and Teller were in top
threats that humans pose to the en-
physicist in Wood's group, Teller
form. Wood called for a fleet of
vironment and that a breached en-
painted a terrifying picture of small
nuclear missiles to be held at the
vironment now poses to humans,
94
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
BOOKS
takes aim at the political paralysis
third life-threatening peril to the at-
Otherwise, his findings conform
and economic boogeymen that
mosphere that he names may catch
closely to the current contours of
keep the United States from chang-
even seasoned environmentalists
scientific consensus; his tone is
ing course, and tells of a personal
off guard: the shifting proportion of
grave, not alarmist. Yet, from the
hydroxyls (ions containing one
senator's analysis emerges a very
hydrogen and one oxygen atom) in
big picture that is more than a
EARTH
the upper atmosphere. A reduction
mosaic of facts.
in hydroxyls, which serve as a
With nods to both renegade
INTHE
natural detergent by combining
ecologist Gregory Bateson and
with other molecules, may boost
"chaos theory," Gore steps back
BALANCE
concentrations of the greenhouse
from the many assaults on the en-
ECOLOGY
gas methane and sap the atmos-
vironment to look for the pattern
AND THE
phere's capacity to cleanse itself
that connects seemingly disparate
HUMAN SPIRIT
through oxidation and maintain
phenomena. There he finds multi-
SENATOR
AL GORE
chemical equilibrium.
ple links among the first-order en-
Other front-running environ-
vironmental threats he identifies-
mental threats (which Gore likens
most notably, the way global
odyssey that gave him a new per-
to strategic military threats, as op-
warming and stratospheric ozone
spective on civilization and its
posed to regional battles or local
depletion reinforce each other-
manifold discontents-all in
skirmishes) are rising sea levels,
but also more speculative con-
roughly 400 pages.
the gross redistribution of fresh-
nections, such as that between in-
In Gore's view, threats to the
water supplies, changes in rainfall
debtedness and environmental
atmosphere are at the pinnacle of
patterns and the hydrological cycle,
degradation in the developing
the mountain of environmental
the chemical contamination of
world.
abuses that has built up in the past
water, tropical deforestation, deser-
But Gore is even more inter-
half-century. Of these, global
tification, and the erosion of germ-
ested in false patterns-the dan-
warming ranks first. After noting
plasm through species extinctions.
gerously outdated paradigms that
differences of expert opinion and
Garbage and hazardous wastes get
govern how we experience, think
the mind- and computer-boggling
a chapter-long drubbing too,
about, and act on nature and that
complexity of feedback effects as-
though less as strategic problems
permit us to believe all is predict-
sociated with global warming,
than as symptoms of the pervasive
able, if not exactly well. Forget
Gore nonetheless sides with scien-
belief that nothing on Earth is
about neat cause-and-effect rela-
tists who think that human-induced
sacred, including human life.
tionships and steady states, cau-
temperature changes are likely to
Gore's reading of what ails the
tions Gore. A better way to under-
be five times greater than those
planet packs few surprises. He
stand nature in its currently
that brought on the Great Famine
seems somewhat surer than the
disturbed state is as a complex sys-
of 1315-17 or the Little Ice Age of
scientific community itself about
tem on the verge of seismic shifts
1550-1850. Gore also describes
the hydroxyl problem. Some con-
to "an entirely new equilibrium"
ozone depletion, yet another
sider it dangerous mainly because it
with "new boundaries."
manifestation of global air pollu-
could be a mechanism of global
tion, in by-now-familiar terms. The
warming, though others see the
A global Marshall Plan
reduction of hydroxyls as a threat in
Politicians, like other mortals, have
its own right. Either way, the
been slow to pick up on the fun-
phenomenon is too poorly under-
damental changes in humanity's
stood to compare with either
relationship to nature, Gore sug-
Kathleen Courrier is publications director
at the World Resources Institute and series
climate change or ozone depletion.
gests, for roughly the same reasons
editor of Beacon Press/WRI Guides to the
Scientists aren't even sure if the
that people can't feel Earth spin on
Environment.
hydroxyl level is rising or falling.
its axis and teenagers are willing to
SUMMER 1992
95
risk skin cancer in middle age for a
than further research) until scien-
practically unworkable," Gore is
good tan this weekend. The scale
tists are ready to bet their grant
nevertheless guardedly optimistic
and the delayed impacts of global
money on its precise causes,
that the United Nations could do
environmental threats defy the sen-
dimensions, and impacts, all but
more, perhaps through a new Stew-
ses and make action, however es-
guarantee that real action won't
ardship Council modeled after the
sential, seem less than urgent.
occur until natural resources and
U.N. Security Council.
This lack of urgency is made
systems deteriorate further. Reluc-
Within this framework, Gore
even harder to overcome, Gore as-
tantly accepting this political fact
lays out six strategic goals, bolsters
serts, by the increasing obsoles-
of life, Gore recommends using the
them with bundles of specific
cence of our political and economic
inevitable downtime to forge a
policy proposals that he hopes
system. It is particularly out of sync
policy framework that will make
politicians will pick up as time
with the times, he claims, in its
quick responses possible once
firms up their grasp of what is at
"partial blindness" to the worth of
global warming and the other
stake, and outlines a U.S. role.
natural resources and ecosystems
"strategic" threats he describes are
Population stabilization tops his
and its confusion of price and
at the door.
list, followed by an all-out push to
value. The Gross National Product
Gore's basic idea for this new
develop environmentally appro-
"carefully measures and keeps
framework is a "global Marshall
priate technologies, the greening of
track of the value of those things
Plan" for the environment-a term
economic decisionmaking, the
most important to buyers and
the senator did not coin but seems
negotiation of a "new generation"
sellers, such as food, clothing,
determined to make stick. Like its
of international treaties and agree-
manufactured goods, work, and, in-
namesake, the plan would be large
ments, and the launch of a global
deed, money itself
but,"
says
scale, long term, and massive. It
environmental research, education,
Gore, "often completely ignores
would channel financial aid and
and monitoring program. Under-
the value of other things that are
new technologies to developing na-
girding all are worldwide commit-
harder to buy and sell: fresh water,
tions and stabilize world popula-
ments to such bedrock issues as
clean air, the beauty of the moun-
tion. Unlike the drive to rebuild
guaranteed land tenure; adequate
tains, the rich diversity of life in the
war-torn Europe, though, this pro-
food, health care, and shelter;
forest." As a result, natural resour-
gram entails changes on both sides,
respect for basic human rights; and
ces get sold at fire-sale prices or
committing rich countries to "an
"greater political freedom, par-
treated as goods free for the taking.
environmentally responsible pat-
ticipation, and accountability."
Gore sees an "Alice-in-Won-
tern of life." The United States
derland quality" in our approach to
would not foot most of the bill for
The technological
economic affairs in general. The
this plan, but it wouldn't call key
imperative
prevalence of "frenetic specula-
shots on its own either.
A closer look at Gore's technology
tion, merger mania, asset shuffling,
Hope for such sweeping con-
package shows the breadth, depth,
and a range of other activities lar-
sensual change, says Gore, hangs
and consistency of the six-point
gely unrelated to the creation of
on three important "choices" that
policy framework he proposes.
competitive goods and services,"
most of the world has already
Gore believes that counting on
he says, explains why the United
made: for democracy, for modified
technology to solve social prob-
States is losing ground in world
free markets, and for a truly global
lems helped create the current en-
markets. Even short-term planning
civilization. As to how such change
vironmental crisis. Nonetheless, he
is giving way to an economic he-
is to come about, a web of strong
argues that the prognosis for Earth
donism predicated on pillaging the
international agreements would
and humanity would improve
future.
oblige all nations to act in concert
mightily under a crash program to
These built-in biases, com-
without impinging on their in-
phase out polluting and energy-
bined with Congress' insistence
dividual sovereignty. Ruling out
guzzling technology while devel-
that an environmental problem
any sort of world government as
oping and deploying greener ma-
doesn't deserve attention (other
"both politically impossible and
chinery and industrial processes.
96
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
BOOKS
Gore labels this "out with the
done so many seemingly surefire
personal and spiritual matter. Gore
bad, in with the good" approach the
tree-planting schemes: ecological
credits a family trauma (his son
Strategic Environment Initiative
mismatches when new species are
Albert's brush with accidental
(SEI) after the Strategic Defense
introduced and lack of the long-
death in 1989) and a less sudden
Initiative, which he has opposed
term care that seedlings need to
mid-life reckoning with inspiring
but nonetheless admires for its
survive.
his newfound belief that the hy-
sharp focus and intensity. The SEI's
In Gore's take on technology
dra-headed environmental crisis
nine planks range from tax incen-
development, leadership figures
reflects a crisis of the human spirit.
tives and R&D funding to the
centrally. Japan and other nations
What's missing from American
rationalization of a "patchwork" of
will happily step to the front if the
politics and American society, says
environmental laws and greater
United States doesn't, he believes,
Gore, is "balance between con-
protection for the patents, licensing
since there is money to be made as
templation and action, individual
agreements, and other assurances
environmental necessity mothers
concerns and commitment to the
that will spur the private sector to
environmental invention. Domes-
community, love for the natural
chase profits in green fields.
tically, says Gore, leadership in the
world and love for our wondrous
Other recent books on every-
development of clean, energy-ef-
civilization." A search for this
thing that's wrong with the global
ficient technology and leaner
sense of balance is what Gore
environment and everything that
manufacturing techniques could
claims led him first to base a pres-
should be done about it (including
give industrial policy-currently
idential campaign on issues that
Paul and Anne Ehrlich's Healing
nobody's baby-a focal point that
George Will and others accurately
the Planet and Helen Caldicott's If
taxpayers would appreciate as
predicted could not determine a
You Love This Planet) don't get any
something other than a government
presidential election, and now
more specific about solutions than
bureaucracy attempting to bully
to write this book on those same
these nine proposals. Gore does. In
business.
issues.
convincing detail, he tests his
Gore's brave attempt to com-
generic ideas out in agriculture and
A search for 'balance'
bine scientific reporting, political
forestry-the two sectors most
No doubt Gore hopes that his agen-
analysis, and spiritual autobiog-
bedeviled by what he considers
da will become presidential-and
raphy ends with a sound bite on
strategic threats to the planet's
that he will, too. Predictably, he
faith. If we have no faith in the fu-
health-and the production and
wastes few opportunities to bash
ture, he says, we can't hope to "re-
use of energy, the sector most re-
the "environmental president,"
store the balance now missing in
sponsible for these threats. In the
taking George Bush to task for such
our relationship to the earth." This
case of agriculture, Gore presses
crimes as stalling international ac-
parting shot is fitting, since to some
for better irrigation technology,
tion on global warming and refus-
extent Earth in the Balance must it-
new techniques for low-input crop-
ing to spend the "tiny sums" needed
self be taken on faith.
ping, advances in plant genetics,
to safeguard Landsat photos and
The thesis can't be proved one
less destructive approaches to ag-
other environmental data and, more
way or another, nor whether the
ricultural land use and fishing, and
generally, leaving environmental
book was written primarily to fur-
better ways to distribute food in
leadership to others. Just as predict-
ther a cause or an ambition. Be-
developing countries. His energy-
ably, Gore advertises his own deep-
cause Gore argues on such a high
technology initiatives are even
green voting record and portrays
moral plane, it's even hard (though
more comprehensive and bold-
himself as the leader that most en-
not impossible) to nail him on com-
they include the elimination of the
vironmentalists consider him to be.
paratively small lapses. (Three that
internal combustion engine within
Less predictable, however, is
stand out are an overworked com-
25 years-and his forestry-tech-
Gore's conclusion that environ-
parison of dysfunctional societies
nology initiatives, though disap-
mental issues go deeper than par-
to dysfunctional families, exces-
pointingly sketchy, acknowledge
tisan politics and that commitment
sive hedging in discussions of abor-
two of the pitfalls that have un-
to the environment is, at bottom, a
tion and nuclear power, and a crude
SUMMER 1992
97
notation system that doesn't enable
pleasantries associated with the
humans emerge more as dupes than
readers to track down the sources
keeping of animals for economic
as crafty manipulators of Mother
of specific facts.)
purposes. He is upset with animal
Nature.
Of course, high ground is ex-
rightists, who tend to see domes-
Budiansky points to the sur-
actly where leaders ought to be,
vival of huge populations of do-
especially environmental leaders
mestic species, and the extinction
warning of rising sea levels. Un-
of many related species, as de facto
answerable questions of motive
THE COVENANT
evidence for his thesis. He even
aside, Earth in the Balance hints at
extends the argument beyond
what environmental politics could
animals: Budiansky writes that
be like if all the players were as
"the substitution of human cultiva-
well-informed and thoughtful as
tion for more 'natural' methods of
the Democratic senator from Ten-
propagation would have, in the
nessee. If (as Gore notes in a riff on
long run, proved a strategy for sur-
how hard it has become to stay
vival of evolutionary significance
abreast of new scientific know-
from the plant's point of view
ledge) John Stuart Mill was "the
In his view, domestication was an
last man to know everything," this
tication purely as brutal subjuga-
evolutionary adaptation accom-
book suggests that Gore himself
tion and who even worry about the
plished through the process of
may be the first politician of our
alleged "boredom" of cows. The
natural selection. Could this be
time to know enough.
Covenant of the Wild is his attempt
right?
to redress the balance, to prove that
the original and persisting practice
Natural or artificial?
The evolution
of animal domestication is fully
Budiansky is at his most convinc-
of domestication
and wholly natural-the product,
ing when he describes the biologi-
in fact, of evolution itself.
cal phenomena of symbiosis and
The Covenant of the Wild. Why
Budiansky's thesis is simple
mutualism, in which two species
Animals Chose Domestication,
and intriguing. We must (he says)
either depend on one another or
by Stephen Budiansky. New York:
stop wondering how it was that
simply tolerate one another's
William Morrow and Company,
humans managed to subjugate do-
needs. The relationship between
Inc., 1992, 190 pp.
mestic animals for our own pur-
humans and domestic animals is
poses, and instead look at the prob-
essentially mutualistic, and mutu-
Niles Eldredge
lem the other way around. We must
alism arises frequently through
ask: What's in it for the animals?
natural selection. He also uses a
Stephen Budiansky, a writer for
Budiansky is convinced that
favorite, long-standing tactic of
U.S. News and World Report, lives
animals chose domestication as an
evolutionary discourse: the invoca-
on a small farm somewhere in
evolutionary survival strategy
tion of "intermediate" forms. In
Maryland. He acknowledges a
toward the end of the Pleistocene
this case, it is a compelling discus-
sense of communion with the live-
("Ice Age"), only a few thousands
sion of Lapps and reindeer herds,
stock on his farm, yet recognizes
of years ago, when so many mam-
where one really does wonder who
the harsh realities of disease, death,
malian species were becoming ex-
is herding whom. The reindeer are
and ancillary human-caused un-
tinct. Sheep, goats, horses and cat-
free to pursue their annual pere-
tle, dogs and cats-all literally
grinations, the Lapps tagging after
"came in from the cold." As Budi-
them-but the reindeer never stray
Niles Eldredge is a curator in the Depart-
ansky puts it, "animals 'chose' us
far from Lapp camps, dependent as
ment of Invertebrates, American Museum
because we were a better deal in
they are on Lapps (for, among other
of Natural History in New York City. He
is the author of The Miner's Canary: Un-
an evolutionary sense than life in
things, the salt available in Lapp
raveling the Mysteries of Extinction.
the wild
In his description,
urine). For their own reasons, the
98
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
BOOKS
reindeer tolerate being harvested
selection is differential reproduc-
reproductive matters in these
by the Lapps.
tive success that follows from rela-
species. For as soon as nature
Just so. But is domestication
tive economic success.
leaves off and humans assume con-
in all species really a product of
The issue, then, is how re-
trol of reproductive success, we
evolutionary transformation of be-
productive success is achieved. If
leave the realm of true evolution.
havior and morphology through
humans are controlling reproduc-
To support his case for natural
natural selection? I was struck by
tive behavior in their domestic
selection, Budiansky poses a "bio-
the lack of any reference to artifi-
animals, we have artificial selec-
logical paradox." Wild animals
cial selection in the index (though
tion; if not, we have natural selec-
would not have possessed "docil-
Budiansky refers in passing to
tion. Though a sharp distinction
ity, lack of fear and high reproduc-
"artificial breeding"). The distinc-
clearly exists between the two,
tive rate"-features, he argues,
tion between natural and artificial
there must have been a gray area in
that would have to have been
selection is essential to Budi-
the history of each species bridging
present in some form already if
ansky's argument. Yet Budiansky
the "white" of complete wildness
captive breeding had been in use
consistently muddles this distinc-
and the "black" of complete do-
at the very start of the domestica-
tion-implying that the reproduc-
mestication. The key question, then,
tion process. (He neglects to ac-
tive success of pigs on a farm in
is how early in this gray phase
knowledge, however, that natural
Iowa right now is the very same
humans took over direct control of
selection also requires some selec-
thing as evolutionary success con-
veyed through natural selection.
Darwin, very early on in his On
the Origin of Species (1859), im-
merses his reader in the details of
the selective breeding of pigeons.
He had apprenticed himself to a
local pigeon fancier so he could
learn firsthand how humans can
modify the distribution of traits in
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strict mating to those animals that
best exemplify the traits the breeder
wishes to see enhanced.
Darwin then asked whether
any process in nature could render
the same sort of selective modifica-
tion of the distribution of traits in
wild populations. His answer (si-
multaneously proposed by Alfred
Russell Wallace) was that, in a
world of finite resources, popula-
tion sizes cannot keep on expand-
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SUMMER 1992
99
table, heritable variation to be
conveys a false message. We were
a species may escape extinction.
present before it can do its job; the
simply in an interglacial period-
Budiansky says that the species
paradox applies to both explana-
whatever the divisions of geologi-
that are now our domestic animals
tions.) Whence, he inquires, came
cal time on the wall charts may
seduced us so that they could es-
the appearance of docility and
otherwise imply. And it was not so
cape the fate of their relatives. But
other characteristics of domestic
much climate change as the spread
evolution has no "eyes" for the fu-
animals?
of humans throughout the globe
ture. It is far simpler to think that
Budiansky is keen to adopt
during the past 40,000 years that
the species we chose (because they
neoteny (a phenomenon in which
appears to have done in so many
were more convenient and easier
evolutionary descendants retain
species-especially large mam-
to tame) were lucky: They were
juvenile features of their ancestors
mals akin to the very domestic
spared, while so many of their
into adulthood) as a source of both
species Budiansky discusses.
closer relatives were driven to ex-
novelty and docility in domesti-
But it is in a key passage open-
tinction through overhunting or
cated mammals. He relies particu-
ing his fifth chapter that Budian-
habitat destruction. The simpler,
larly on the work of Valerius Geist
sky actually gives the game away.
traditional interpretation still
in studying the effects of climate
Here he tells us of an experiment
makes the most sense: As the boreal
change in producing neotenic traits
on European foxes, in which tame-
forests retreated north and game
in wild sheep and on Raymond Cop-
ness and a number of other, unex-
animals became scarce, we humans
pinger's research on dog breeding
pected traits were selected ex-
took advantage of the more docile
to support his views. Though his
perimentally-artificially-in just
individuals of the more human-
points are interesting and may
20 years. He also concedes in var-
tolerant species through artificial
prove to be valid, the lack of direct
ious places that early humans
selection to ensure a ready supply
citation of scientific work mars his
would quite naturally let only the
of milk, meat, and hide.
discussion of the importance of
more docile individuals breed-
neoteny-and of virtually every-
thus drawing forth (he claims
Evolutionary ethics
thing else in this book.
plausibly) neotenic tendencies. If
Ethical considerations seem to
Budiansky notes that the spe-
that is so, Budiansky's scenario
drive Budiansky's entire discourse.
cies tolerated on the perimeter of
hardly differs from earlier accounts
I agree with him that there is in-
human settlements tended to be
of domestication, which make the
deed a covenant of sorts between
ecological generalists, and that
distinction between artificial and
farm animals and farmers. They are
many also had social structures
natural selection that Budiansky
utterly dependent upon us, and
marked by dominance hierar-
disdains: As soon as artificial selec-
farmers nearly as much on them.
chies-the latter particularly rele-
tion enters, domestication cannot
What harm is there in seeing this as
vant to a consideration of tameness.
be taken literally as an evolutionary
an aspect of human cultural his-
He then draws a scenario that
adaptation.
tory? Why insist that it is really a
depicts the northern hemisphere
Budiansky is trapped by his
product of evolution through
mammalian fauna teetering at the
own account: Domestication can-
natural selection? For Budiansky,
brink of extinction from climatic
not get beyond the most rudimen-
the answer lies in the ethical im-
change at the end of the Pleis-
tary form of camp following with-
plications he sees in his evolution-
tocene, thus (somewhat mysteri-
out human control of the animals'
ary account of domestication.
ously) setting the stage for neotenic
reproductive success to ensure ade-
Budiansky makes the common
developments in many species.
quate population growth. Thus,
mistake of thinking that ethics
His discussion here is fraught
humans must have assumed control
can and should be derived from an
with error: His statement that "the
of reproduction virtually at the out-
ontological position on nature. Be-
years around 8500 B.C. marked the
set in every instance.
cause domestication evolved
end of an entire geological epoch,
Most disturbing of all is the as-
naturally, it's OK. Well, I don't
known as the Pleistocene," porten-
sumption, central to Budiansky's
think it evolved naturally, the way
tous-sounding though it may be,
thesis, that evolution occurs so that
Budiansky tells it, but I do agree
100
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
BOOKS
that domestication is OK. Budi-
tive underlying virtually all conser-
Peace in the
ansky takes what seems to me a
vationist efforts: the recognition
reasonable position vis à vis the
that habitat destruction and the
Middle East?
animal rights movement: It is true
dismantling of local ecosystems
that we should all strive to lessen
the world over has rent the fabric of
The Control of the Middle East
cruelty, witting or not, to animals in
the entire global ecosystem.
Arms Race, by Geoffrey Kemp.
the laboratory and on the farm, but
Budiansky suspects such state-
Washington, D.C.: Carnegie
it is also the case that our heritage
ments are mere hyperbole. He
Endowment for International
and present condition, both cul-
might be right-though I strongly
Peace, 1991, 232 pp.
turally and physiologically, are
doubt it. Certainly Budiansky is
deeply dependent upon animals for
right on the money when, earlier in
Gerald M. Steinberg
food and other needs.
his narrative, he describes the ul-
Budiansky doesn't need his
timate habitat modifier yet to hit
Few topics are as complex and con-
thesis to argue his ethical point-
the planet: the invention and spread
fusing as efforts to achieve arms
which seems to have been the ra-
of agriculture. He says that the
control in the Middle East, a region
tionale for his flight of fancy in the
domestication of plants and ani-
characterized by multiple and
first place. Evolutionary ethics is
mals changed nature, but not our
often-shifting ethnic, national, and
a quagmire: virtually identical eth-
ideas about it. I say it did both. With
religious conflicts. The threat of
ical positions can be derived from
the invention of agriculture, we
war is always in the background,
two disparate versions of evolu-
sought to move beyond the con-
tionary theory, and disparate ethics
straints of local ecosystems, and in-
from the same theory. Both social
deed redefined the local ecosystem
The Control
Darwinism and an ethic of coop-
as the enemy. Many of us now see
of the
eration, for example, can be de-
that the global ecosystem, of which
Middle East
rived by different savants from the
we are still very much undeniably a
Arms Race
same version of neo-Darwinism.
part, is nothing more nor less than
Budiansky's lumping of the
the sum total of these interacting
animal rights movement with con-
local ecosystems.
Geoffrey Kemp
servationist concerns about im-
Conservationists are not teary-
the assistance Shelley A. Stahl
minent species extinction is
eyed sentimentalists or folks who
another serious lapse. He labels his
want to return to some fantasy of a
the clear-headed, rational, scien-
pristine natural state, as Budiansky
and frequently, the foreground. In
tific approach, while describing
strives so mightily to convince us.
this environment, the prospect of
animal rightists and conserva-
They are people who would like to
arms control seems remote, if not
tionists alike as motivated by sen-
see some semblance of continuity
impossible; in comparison, the 40
timentality, pragmatism (as ex-
of the natural world-if only to
years that U.S. and Soviet ne-
pressed in the search for medicinal
save the human species, among
gotiators spent wandering in the
cures in tropical rainforests), or
others. It is Budiansky whose argu-
wilderness of superpower summits
simply a romantic sense of "rev-
ments are driven by emotion. His
and United Nations conferences
erence and awe at the sublime
scientific gloss on how animals
seem like an extended picnic. Yet
process of evolution that has cre-
came to be on his farm is profound-
because of the threat posed by the
ated these species over thousands
ly unconvincing.
proliferation of nuclear, chemical,
and millions of years." He goes so
far as to categorize ecologist, evo-
lutionary biologist, and conser-
vationist Paul Ehrlich as one of the
Gerald M. Steinberg is research director at
awe-struck fuzzy thinkers. In doing
the Center for Strategic Studies of Bar Ilan
so, Budiansky ignores the real mo-
University in Ramat Gan, Israel
SUMMER 1992
101
and biological weapons, some form
stop proliferation but to create
hope for significant limitation of
of limitation seems essential if the
stability among the states of the
this capability until a regional
nations of the Middle East are to
region.
peace agreement has taken hold
survive.
Kemp rejects the assertion
and the legitimacy of Israel is no
that, in the age of missiles and
longer questioned. Even then, un-
A realistic perspective
weapons of mass destruction, ter-
less the flow of tanks, combat air-
Geoffrey Kemp's The Control of
ritory is unimportant. On the con-
craft, and other conventional weap-
the Middle East Arms Race is a
trary, the extreme geographic asym-
ons is greatly reduced, Israel will
comprehensive and valuable guide
metries of the Middle East make
be wary of giving up its nuclear
to the arms control process in the
the arms control issue more com-
deterrent.
region and should be mandatory
plex. Israel, for instance, is a very
reading for all those involved in the
small country and is highly vul-
Failed agreements
current Arab-Israeli peace talks. In
nerable to being overrun by a mas-
Many efforts to slow or prevent the
contrast to many other naive and
sive conventional attack. Any arms
proliferation of nonconventional
idealistic analyses, Kemp's study is
control agreement must therefore
weapons have been based on sup-
firmly rooted in Middle Eastern
include limits on the acquisition of
plier states' agreements to limit
realities.
tanks and planes, as well as mis-
sales. But Kemp points out that
The book begins with a survey
siles and nuclear weapons. Even
such agreements have in fact failed
of the security concerns of all
with the West Bank in its posses-
to prevent the sale of weapons and
the states in this "dangerous neigh-
sion, Israel has little room for locat-
technology and thus have little
borhood," pointing out that for the
ing early-warning stations, con-
credibility.
leaders of Iraq, Iran, Syria, and
ducting training flights for its air
For example, the Nuclear Non-
Libya, offensive military action is
force, or dispersing second-strike
proliferation Treaty (NPT) pro-
still a useful instrument of policy.
weapons to deter an Arab attack.
hibits the sale of nuclear materials
Given that fact, Kemp goes be-
Geography is also closely
or facilities for use in making
yond simplistic analyses that auto-
linked to the nuclear weapons
weapons. The London Suppliers
matically equate proliferation of
issue. David Ben-Gurion, Israel's
Guidelines specify the particular
weapons with instability and an in-
first prime minister, decided to
materials and technologies that
creased likelihood of war. "On
develop the technical potential to
are not to be sold, and the 1987
some occasions," he says, "weap-
produce nuclear weapons in the
Missile Technology Control Re-
ons proliferation has led to greater
1950s, when Egypt's President
gime (MTCR) establishes similar
caution between adversaries, and
Nasser threatened to "cut Israel in
guidelines for ballistic missiles.
may have strengthened deter-
two" and "drive the Jews into the
However, the governments of Ger-
rence."
sea." Although Israel has never of-
many, Britain, France, the United
For example, he notes that Iraq
ficially acknowledged a nuclear
States, and other countries turned a
refrained from using chemical war-
capability, the fact that it has a
blind eye to firms that sold technol-
heads in its missile attacks on Israel
"bomb in the basement" is widely
ogy and provided advisors to Iraq
during the Gulf War out of fear of
known. Some analysts argue that
and Libya. In many cases, govern-
the Israeli response. Thus, when
this threat of nuclear retaliation
ments ignored their own laws that
faced with bloodthirsty enemies
has served as a deterrent to full-
would have prevented the export of
such as Saddam Hussein, countries
scale Arab attacks since 1973. And
such lethal technology. Countries
that have the means to threaten
Egypt's President Anwar Sadat's
that rejected the limitations of the
massive retaliation may indeed
decision to negotiate a peace treaty
NPT and the MTCR, such as China
deter war and limit destruction.
with Israeli was linked to the reali-
and North Korea, have also been
Arms control proposals must take
zation that a nuclear state cannot
major sources of weapons and
this fact into account, as Kemp
be destroyed. Israel has forcefully
technology.
does when he argues that the ob-
rejected all efforts to weaken this
In addition, the Arab and Is-
ject of U.S. policy should not be to
deterrent, and Kemp sees little
lamic states have billions of petro-
102
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
BOOKS
dollars available to purchase what-
gins for their military industries in
for arms control efforts to succeed.
ever is on the market, and when
order to prevent instability in the
The first stage is actually an
such sums are involved, limitation
Middle East, it would take many
indefinite period during which
agreements only increase prices.
years for such a policy to have an
states in the region take tacit mea-
Saddam Hussein spent over $40
effect. Arms stockpiles and long-
sures to prevent war by miscalcu-
billion in assembling a huge ar-
term agreements and contracts
lation, agree on limits on weapons
senal, including thousands of tanks,
would ensure that even a freeze on
testing and deployment, and par-
thousands of tons of chemical
new agreements would leave the
ticipate in multilateral arms control
agents, hundreds of ballistic mis-
region fully armed for years.
talks. As Kemp notes, some tacit
siles, and the components of an ad-
understandings and limits on de-
vanced nuclear program. And now
An agenda for peace
ployments have already been
the cash-starved remnants of the
Given all these complications,
adopted, between Israel and Syria,
Soviet Union have been seeking to
Kemp is smart enough not to offer
for instance. Explicit agreements,
barter their arsenals for hard cur-
simplistic solutions to the arms
however, would require a much
rency, adding a number of new
control problem. Instead, he out-
greater level of communication and
sources of sophisticated weapons.
lines a three-stage progression, in
cooperation than now exists, so that
Even if the supplier states were
which action must be taken grad-
participation in some form of direct
ready to accept lower profit mar-
ually in a variety of areas in order
talks would first be necessary.
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SUMMER 1992
103
Kemp's next stage is to move
relations, and without such a foun-
change of information among all
forward in the peace process, and it
dation, attempts to reach this level
the states in the area are vital.
includes the negotiation of treaties
of arms control will be seen as un-
between Israel and the Arab states.
reliable and dangerous and will be
The Gulf War:
Kemp envisions a partial Israeli
resisted.
unrealized expectations
withdrawal from the West Bank
The first steps, as Kemp notes,
The conditions that existed imme-
and demilitarization of this zone.
will be the most difficult. Arms
diately after the 1991 Gulf War
Israel would retain a military pre-
control is not even on the Syrian or
seemed to present an opportunity to
sence in the unpopulated eastern
Iranian agenda (a fact that Kemp's
break through the complexities and
third of Judea and Samaria, and
analysis does not address). In addi-
force the issue of an arms control
along the Jordan river, as a line of
tion, the leaders of most Middle
agenda. For six weeks, the peoples
defense against attack from Iraq.
Eastern countries (except Israel
in the region saw the devastating
Peace agreements would include
and Egypt) lack the diplomatic,
impact of modern warfare. Iraqi
the establishment of other demili-
technical, and political expertise to
missiles were fired at Israel and
tarized zones and the stationing of
deal with these complex issues.
Saudi Arabia, and the citizens of
multilateral peacekeeping forces.
Deeply rooted hostilities will also
both countries shared the trauma of
Unfortunately, Kemp fails to
be hard to overcome; Iranian lead-
breathing through gas masks and
address some likely difficulties.
ers, for example, recently con-
contemplating the possible use of
Given Israel's very small area, how
demned other Arab leaders who
chemical weapons. There was also
is demilitarization to work on the
had participated in peace talks with
the possibility that Saddam Hus-
Israeli side? Regarding peacekeep-
Israel, calling them traitors to Is-
sein had managed to assemble
ing, past experiences in the region
lam. The Syrian delegation came to
nuclear weapons, which could have
are mixed, at best. UN forces did
the Arab-Israeli conference in
threatened the entire region with
not prevent Nasser from massing
Madrid but boycotted the first
total destruction. Under these con-
forces along the Israeli border in
meeting of the peace talks in Mos-
ditions, Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia,
May 1967, and the UN forces in
cow, where the arms control work-
Kuwait, and the Gulf States ac-
Lebanon have not blocked Pales-
ing group was established. Syria's
cepted the need to place arms con-
tine Liberation Organization and
efforts to purchase North Korean
trol on the regional agenda. There
Hezbollah raids and rocket attacks
and Chinese missiles, capable of
was reason to believe that the ex-
on northern Israel. On the other
striking Israeli cities, are also not
ample of Iraq would force Iran and
hand, the multilateral forces sta-
consistent with a desire for arms
Syria to recognize the need to deal
tioned in the Sinai to monitor the
limitations in the region.
with this issue as well.
terms of the Egyptian-Israeli peace
We can only guess at how
These expectations, however,
treaty have performed their mission
military policy is made in key
were not realized. As Kemp notes,
well. More attention on Kemp's
Arab and Islamic states. Is Syria's
UN Resolution 687, in which Iraq
part to the complexities of demili-
President Assad seeking stability,
agreed to the verified destruction of
tarization and peacekeeping would
or, as Israeli intelligence recently
its nonconventional weapons, was
have been useful here.
reported, preparing for a war in the
an important element of the new
Only in Kemp's final phase,
Golan Heights? Without better in-
Middle Eastern order. Enforcement
after peace has been established, do
formation about what other Middle
of the terms of this agreement
mutual inspection and regional
Eastern countries want, Israeli de-
would have been a major step in the
arms-supply agreements become
cisionmakers will have to work on
process of arms control. Iraq was an
possible. Efforts to reach this final
the basis of "worst-case analysis,"
NPT signatory, and in punishing
stage without passing through the
driving the arms race on and in-
Baghdad for its blatant violations
first two would not only fail, but
creasing the probability of another
of the treaty, the international com-
could be counterproductive. Mu-
war. To prevent this and to begin to
munity would have set an impor-
tual inspection and formal agree-
take the first tentative steps toward
tant precedent and deterred other
ments require a period of peaceful
peace, greater openness and ex-
would-be violators. The resolution
104
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
BOOKS
specified a period of 120 days for
Iraqi threat would also have re-
After all, it took the United States
completion of the destruction, but
duced Israeli fears of a combined
and the Soviet Union 10 years
more than a year went by during
attack on its eastern front. Now, as
from the time of the 1962 Cuban
which Saddam Hussein managed
Kemp says, "Until there is incon-
missile crisis to reach the first stra-
to protect his nuclear weapons fa-
trovertible evidence that Iraq's
tegic arms limitation treaty (SALT
cilities, along with plants to manu-
most dangerous military capabili-
I). The complexities and deep-
facture ballistic missiles and
ties have been eliminated, it will be
seated conflicts of the Middle East,
biological agents. Although some
difficult to urge restraint on the
together with the radicalism of
progress has finally been made by
others in the region."
many of its states, will continue to
the UN inspection teams, many
Perhaps expectations in the
make arms control difficult. Nev-
items are likely to remain hidden
period following the Gulf War
ertheless, Kemp's clear presen-
until the threat of military action
were overly optimistic, and even if
tation of the issues and obstacles,
has ended; they will then be res-
Resolution 687 had been enforced,
and his outline of the necessary
tored to the Iraqi arsenal.
progress toward arms control
steps to be taken, make a major
The removal of the formidable
would still have been very slow.
contribution to the effort.
IF ONE ARM FEELS NUMB,
HERE'S WHAT TO DO WITH THE OTHER ONE.
The sudden onset of numbness or weakness in one arm or leg, dimness or loss of vision, severe headache, dizziness
or loss of speech. The warning signs of stroke. If you experience one or more of these symptoms, call a doctor immediately.
To learn more, contact the American Heart Association, 7272 Greenville Avenue, Box 34, Dallas, TX 75231-4596.
You can help prevent heart disease and stroke.
We can tell you how.
American Heart Association
This space provided as a public service. ©1992, American Heart Association
SUMMER 1992
105
INDEX
Automobiles
Rosina Bierbaum and Robert M. Friedman.
A Better Idea: Redefining the Way
VIII(2):58-65
Volume VIII, Issues 1-4
Americans Work, by Donald E. Petersen
To Market, To Market, Joseph I. Lieberman.
and John Hillkirk; reviewed by Michael S.
VIII(4):25-29
Fall 1991-Summer 1992
Flynn. VIII(3):83-86
Carcinogens
Clean Air at a Reasonable Price, James W.
Overhauling Carcinogen Classification,
Kinnear. VIII(2):28-31
Robert J. Moolenaar. VIII(4):70-75
LETTERS
Classified information
Babikian, George H. VIIII(3):18-19
The Perils of Government Secrecy, Steven
Adolescents
Imbrecht, Charles R. VIII(4):17-18
Aftergood. VIII(4):81-88
Fighting AIDS in Adolescents, Karen Hein.
Seinfeld, John H. VIII(3):19
Climate
VII(3):67-72
Keeping Climate Research Relevant, Ed-
LETTER
Dryfoos, Joy G. VIII(1):21-22
Bachrach, Leona L.
ward S. Rubin, Lester B. Lave, and M.
Aftergood, Steven
Review of Out of Bedlam: The Truth About
Granger Morgan. VIII(2):47-55
The Perils of Government Secrecy.
Deinstitutionalization, by Ann Braden
LETTERS
VIII(4):81-88
Johnson. VIII(1):91-93
Firor, John. VIII(3):16
Aging
Beaches
Frosch, Robert A. VIIII(3):16-17
Save Beaches, Not Buildings, Orrin H.
Lee, Thomas H. VIII(3): 17-18
Cutting the Costs of Aging, Edward L.
Pilkey and William J. Neal. VIII(3):36-41
Starr, Chauncey. VIII(3):14-16
Schneider. VII(4):47-49
LETTERS
Wolff, George T. VIIII(3):16-17
LETTERS
Berg, Robert L. VIII(2):16
Dean, Robert G. VIII(4):16
The Missing Data on Global Climate
Cohen, Gene D. VIII(2):1:
Dixon, Katharine L. VIII(4):16-17
Change, James Hansen, William Rossow,
Cohen, Harvey J. VIII(2):15-16
Houston, James R. VIII(4):-16
and Inez Fung. VII(1):62-69
Bierbaum, Rosina, and Robert M.
LETTER
Anderson, Robert E. VII(2):14-15
Friedman
Mackenzie, F.T. VIII(1):26-27
Hill, Rolla B. VII(2):14-15
Vachon, R. Alexander. VIII(2):13-14
The Road to Reduced Carbon Emissions.
Smith, S.V. VIII(1):26-27
Williams, T. Franklin. VIII(2):15
VIII(2):58-65
Preserving Biodiversity in a Changing
AIDS
Biodiversity
Climate, Robert L. Peters and J. P. Myers.
Preserving Biodiversity in a Changing
VIII(2):66-72
Fighting AIDS in Adolescents, Karen Hein.
LETTER
VII(3):67-72
Climate, Robert L. Peters and J. P. Myers.
LETTER
VIII(2):66-72
Hendrix, John E. VIII(3):18
Dryfoos, Joy G. VIII(1):21-22
LETTER
The Road to Reduced Carbon Emissions,
Air quality
Hendrix, John E. VIII(3):18
Rosina Bierbaum and Robert M. Friedman.
Clean Air at a Reasonable Price, James W.
Toward a National Biodiversity Policy, Wal-
VIII(2):58-65
Kinnear. VIII(2):28-31
ter V. Reid. VIIII(3):59-65
To Market, To Market, Joseph I. Lieberman.
LETTERS
LETTERS
VIII(4):25-29
Babikian, George H. VIII(3):18-19
Carpenter, Will D. VIII(4):20-21
Science and Climate Policy: A History Les-
Imbrecht, Charles R. VIII(4):17-18
Csuti, Blair. VIII(4):21
son, Charles N. Herrick. VIII(2):56-57
Seinfeld, John H. VIII(3):19
Jamison, Cy. VIII(4):19-20
Coastal management
Airline industry
LaRoe, Edward T. VIII(4):21
Save Beaches, Not Buildings, Orrin H.
Airline Deregulation, Stephen R. Godwin
Scott, J. Michael. VIII(4):21
Pilkey and William J. Neal. VIII(3):36-41
and Mark R. Dayton. VIII(2):78-79
Woodwell, G. M. VIII(4):20
LETTERS
Alic, John A., see Fletcher and Alic
Biomedical research
Dean, Robert G. VIII(4):16
Animals
Controlling Conflict of Interest, Paul J.
Dixon, Katharine L. VIII(4):16-17
The Covenant of the Wild: Why Animals
Friedman. VIII(1):30-32
Houston, James R. VIII(4):-16
Chose Domestication, by Stephen
LETTERS
Colleges and universities
Budiansky; reviewed by Niles Eldredge.
Bulger, Roger J. VIII(3):23
The Laboratory Is Not a Courtroom, Char-
VIII(4):98-101
Nobel, Joel J. VIII(3):23
les Maechling, Jr. VIII(3):73-77
Annas, George J.
Biotechnology
LETTERS
Review of Regulating Death: The Case of
Protecting Biotechnology's Pioneers, Lisa
Barber, Albert A. VIII(4):23-24
the Netherlands, by Carlos F. Gomez.
J. Raines. VIII(2):33-39
Friedman, Paul J. VIII(4):22
VIII(3):91-94
LETTERS
Robinson, Dorothy K. VIII(4):22-23
Arms control
Heesen, Mark G. VIII(3):13-14
Zinder, Norton. VIII(4):23
Jancin, J., Jr. VIII(3):13
Preparing Minorities for Science Careers,
Abolishing Long-range Nuclear Missiles,
Sidney D. Drell. VIII(3):34-35
Koenigsberg, I. Fred. VIII(3):13
JW Carmichael, Jr., and John P. Sevenair.
LETTERS
Borrus, Michael
VII(3):55-60
Canavan, Gregory H. VIII(4):
Review of The Age of Diminished Expecta-
LETTERS
Reed, Thomas C. VIII(4):18
tions, by Paul Krugman. VIII(2):82-84
Hilliard, Asa G. VIII(1):16-17
Weisburger, John H. VIII(4):19
Brown, George E., Jr., and Daniel R.
McBay, Shirley. VIII(1):16
Sarewitz
The Control of the Middle East Arms Race,
Scientific Misconduct: The Rights of the Ac-
by Geoffrey Kemp; reviewed by Gerald M.
Fiscal Alchemy: Transforming Debt into Re-
cused, Jonathan Knight. VIII(1):28-29
Steinberg. VIII(4): 101-105
search. VIII(1):70-76
LETTERS
The Politics of Proliferation, Janne E.
Brown, Harold
Green, Harold P. VIII(3)23-24
Nolan. VIII(1):63-69
Crossroads for U.S.-Japan Relations.
Weis, Judith S. VIII(3)24
Toward Real Arms Control in the Middle
VIII(2):24-27
Computers
East, Gerald M. Steinberg. VII(4):63-69
Burton, Daniel F., Jr.
Why Patents Are Bad for Software, Simson
LETTER
A New Model for U.S. Innovation.
L. Garfinkel, Richard M. Stallman, and
Shoval, Zalman. VIII(2):19-20
VIII(4):52-59
Mitchell Kapor. VIII(1):50-55
LETTERS
Field, Thomas G., Jr. VIII(2):22
Cancer
Manbeck, Harry F., Jr. VIII(2):20-22
This index includes articles, book reviews,
Overhauling Carcinogen Classification,
Conflict of interest
editorials, and letters. Articles are indexed by
Robert J. Moolenaar. VIII(4):70-75
Controlling Conflict of Interest, Paul J.
Carbon emissions
author and subject; book reviews by reviewer
Friedman. VIII(1):30-32
The Road to Reduced Carbon Emissions,
and subject; letters by subject only.
LETTERS
106
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
INDEX
Bulger, Roger J. VIII(3):23
Fighting Drug Abuse at the Local Level,
Lay, Kenneth R. VIII(1):15-16
Nobel, Joel J. VIII(3):23
Paul S. Jellinek and Ruby P. Hearn.
Eldredge, Niles
The War Over Wetlands, Sara Nicholas.
VII(4):78-84
Review of The Covenant of the Wild: Why
VIII(4):35-41
LETTERS
Animals Chose Domestication, by Stephen
Courrier, Kathleen
Hosmer, Clark. VIII(2):10-11
Budiansky. VIII(4):98-101
Earth in the Balance: Ecology and the
Rangel, Charles B. VIII(2):
Electricity
Human Spirit, by Senator Al Gore.
9-10
Electrifying America: Social Meanings of a
VIII(4):94-98
Economic policy
New Technology, 1880-1940, by David E.
The Age of Diminished Expectations, by
Nye; reviewed by Miles Orvell. VIII(2):
Paul Krugman; reviewed by Michael
93-95
Davis, Devra Lee, see Poore and Davis
Borrus. VIII(2):82-84
Dayton, Mark R., see Godwin and Dayton
Employment
Brazil 1992: Who Needs This Meeting?
Debt-for-science swaps
Keeping the Workforce Competitive, W.
Gordon J. MacDonald. VII(4):41-44
Wendell Fletcher and John A. Alic.
Fiscal Alchemy: Transforming Debt into Re-
LETTERS
VIII(1):44-49
search, George E. Brown, Jr., and Daniel R.
Ebbin, Steven. VIII(2):11-12
LETTERS
Sarewitz. VIII(1):70-76
Speth, James Gustav. VIII(2):12
LETTERS
Frey, Donald N. VIII(3):11
Spivy-Weber, Frances. VIII(2):12
Amuzu, J. K. A. VIII(3):7-8
Packer, Arnold H. VIIII(3):10-11
Aréchiga, Hugo. VIII(3):7
Fulfilling the Promise of Environmental
Rockefeller, Jay. VIII(3):10
Technology, Marc H. Ross and Robert H.
Goldemberg, José. VIII(3):6-7
The Overworked American: The Unex-
Socolow. VII(3):61-66
Odhiambo, Thomas R. VIII(3):6
pected Decline in Leisure, by Juliet B.
LETTERS
Tyler, Lewis A. VIII(3):8-10
Schor; reviewed by Alicia H. Munnell.
Deland, Michael R. VIII(1):17
Defense policy
VIII(3):80-83
Lents, James M. VIII(1):17-18
Abolishing Long-range Nuclear Missiles,
Preparing Minorities for Science Careers,
Head to Head: The Coming Economic Bat-
Sidney D. Drell. VIII(3):34-35
JW Carmichael, Jr., and John P. Sevenair.
tle Among Japan, Europe, and America, by
Beyond the Thaw: A New National Strategy,
VII(3):55-60
Lester Thurow; reviewed by Bruce Stokes.
LETTERS
by S.J. Deitchman; reviewed by Robert B.
VIII(4):76-79
Pirie, Jr. VIII(2):91-93
Hilliard, Asa G. VIII(1):16-17
An Industry Approach to Sustainable
McBay, Shirley. VIII(1):16
The Perils of Government Secrecy, Steven
Development, E.S. Woolard, Jr. VIII(3):
Aftergood. VIII(4):81-88
The School-to-Work Transition, Paul E.
29-33
Barton. VII(3):50-54
The Politics of Proliferation, Janne E.
LETTERS
LETTERS
Nolan. VIII(1):63-69
Hair, Jay D. VIII(4):9-10
Bales, Edward W. VIII(1):14
Restructuring the Defense Industrial Base,
Vaughn, Gerald F. VIII(4):10
Grover, Herbert J. VIII(1):14-15
Jacques S. Gansler. VIII(3):50-58
Restructuring the Defense Industrial Base,
Jones, Roberts T. VIII(1):13-14
LETTERS
Jacques S. Gansler. VIII(3):50-58
Lay, Kenneth R. VIII(1):15-16
Murrin, Thomas J. VIII(4):12-13
LETTERS
Energy policy
Perry, William J. VIII(4):10-11
Murrin, Thomas J. VIII(4):12-13
Rechtin, Eberhardt. VIII(4):11-12
How to Improve Energy Efficiency, Michael
Perry, William J. VIII(4):10-11
Shepard. VII(4):85-91
Weisburger, John H. VIII(4):19
Rechtin, Eberhardt. VIII(4):11-12
LETTERS
Teller's War: The Top-Secret Story Behind
Weisburger, John H. VIII(4):19
Hanna, Thomas H. VIII(2):18
the Star Wars Deception, by William J.
The Road to Reduced Carbon Emissions,
Merline, John W. VIII(2):18-19
Broad; reviewed by Robert L. Park.
Rosina Bierbaum and Robert M. Friedman.
Ottinger, Richard L. VIII(2):16-17
VIII(4):92-94
VIII(2):58-65
Rosenfeld, Arthur H. VIIII(2):17-18
Toward Real Arms Control in the
Toward a U.S. Technology Policy, Lewis M.
The Politics of Fusion Research, W.D.
Middle East, Gerald M. Steinberg.
Branscomb. VII(4):50-55
Kay. VIII(2):40-46
VII(4):63-69
LETTERS
LETTERS
LETTER
Lyons, John W. VIII(2):8-9
Dean, Stephen O. VIII(3):26-27
Shoval, Zalman. VIII(2):19-20
Zicherman, Joseph B. VIII(2):9
Happer, William. VIII(3):26
Developing countries
Editorial
Kinter, Edwin E. VIII(3):27-28
Brazil 1992: Who Needs This Meeting?
Beyond Globaloney, Kevin Finneran.
Nevins, William M. VIII(3):24-26
Gordon J. MacDonald. VII(4):
VIII(2):96
The Road to Reduced Carbon Emissions,
41-44
Change and Continuity, Kevin Finneran.
Rosina Bierbaum and Robert M. Friedman.
LETTERS
VIII(1):96
VIII(2):58-65
Ebbin, Steven. VIII(2):11-12
When Industry Speaks
Kevin Finneran.
Engineering/engineers
Speth, James Gustav. VIII(2):12
VIII(4):80
Spivy-Weber, Frances. VIII(2):12
The American Engineer as Policymaker,
Education
William R. Grogan. VII(3):40-42
Fiscal Alchemy: Transforming Debt into
Engineering Education for the Workers of
LETTERS
Research, George E. Brown, Jr., and Daniel
the Future, Don E. Kash and F. Karl Wil-
Allaire, Paul A. VIII(1):25
R. Sarewitz. VIII(1):70-76
lenbrock. VIII(4):30-34
Gabarro, John J. VIII(1):25-26
LETTERS
Preparing Minorities for Science Careers,
Incropera, Frank P. VIII(1):26
Amuzu, J. K. A. VIII(3):7-8
JW Carmichael, Jr., and John P. Sevenair.
Laurendeau, Normand M. VIII(1):26
Aréchiga, Hugo. VIII(3):7
VII(3):55-60
Pister, Karl S. VIII(1):25
Goldemberg, José. VIII(3):6-7
LETTERS
Engineering Education for the Workers of
Odhiambo, Thomas R. VIII(3):6
Hilliard, Asa G. VIII(1):16-17
the Future, Don E. Kash and F. Karl Wil-
Tyler, Lewis A. VIII(3):8-10
McBay, Shirley. VIII(1):16
lenbrock. VIII(4):30-34
The Politics of Proliferation, Janne E.
Restoring Upward Mobility, John F. Welch,
Opening the Door for Immigrant Profes-
Nolan. VIII(1):63-69
Jr. VII(3):38-40
sionals, Carl Shusterman. VIII(1):32-35
Drell, Sidney D.
LETTERS
LETTERS
Abolishing Long-range Nuclear Missiles.
Burke, James E. VIII(1):12
Chamot, Dennis. VIII(3):22
VIII(3):34-35
Stewart, Donald M. VIIII():12-13
Morrison, Bruce A. VIII(3):22
Drugs
The School-to-Work Transition, Paul E.
Environment
Better Regulation for Better Drugs, Mark
Barton. VII(3):50-54
Brazil 1992: Who Needs This Meeting?
Novitch. VIII(1):56-62
LETTERS
Gordon J. MacDonald. VII(4):41-44
LETTER
Bales, Edward W. VIII(1):14
LETTERS
Mossinghoff, Gerald J. VIII(2):
Grover, Herbert J. VIII(1):14-15
Ebbin, Steven. VIII(2):11-12
22-23
Jones, Roberts T. VIII(1):13-14
Speth, James Gustav. VIII(2):12
SUMMER 1992
107
Spivy-Weber, Frances. VIII(2):12
Webster, C. Patrick Chaulk, Stephen P.
Change, James Hansen, William Rossow,
Clean Air at a Reasonable Price, James W.
Teret, and Garen J. Wintemute. VII(3):
and Inez Fung. VII(1):62-69
Kinnear. VIII(2):28-31
73-79
LETTER
LETTERS
LETTERS
Mackenzie, F.T. VIII(1):26-27
Babikian, George H. VIIII(3):18-19
Biden, Joseph R., Jr. VIII(1):18-19
Smith, S.V. VIII(1):26-27
Imbrecht, Charles R. VIII(4):17-18
Clarke, David A. VIII(1):20-21
Seinfeld, John H. VIII(3):19
Houk, Vernon N. VIII(1):19-20
Earth in the Balance: Ecology and the
Kellermann, Arthur L. VIII(1):21
Harris, Robert H., see Washburn and
Mercy, James A. VIII(1): 19-20
Harris
Human Spirit, by Senator Al Gore;
Rosenberg, Mark L. VIII(1):19-20
Hazardous waste
reviewed by Kathleen Courrier. VIII(4):
94-98
Fish
Siting Hazardous Waste Treatment
Fulfilling the Promise of Environmental
Reducing the Health Risks of Sport Fish,
Facilities: The NIMBY Syndrome, by Kent
Technology, Marc H. Ross and Robert H.
Jeffery A. Foran and Barbara S. Glenn.
E. Portney; reviewed by Stephen T. Wash-
Socolow. VII(3):61-66
VIIII(2):73-77
burn and Robert H. Harris. VIII(1):86-88
LETTERS
Fletcher, W. Wendell, and John A. Alic
Time to Rethink Nuclear Waste Storage,
Deland, Michael R. VIII(1):17
Keeping the Workforce Competitive.
James Flynn, Roger Kasperson, Howard
Lents, James M. VIIII():17-18
VIII(1):44-49
Kunreuther, Paul Slovic. VIII(4):42-48
Flynn, James, Roger Kasperson, Howard
Where's the Waste? Linda Miller Poore and
An Industry Approach to Sustainable
Development, E.S. Woolard, Jr. VIII(3):
Kunreuther, Paul Slovic
Devra Lee Davis. VIIII(3):78-79
29-33
Time to Rethink Nuclear Waste Storage,
Health
LETTERS
James Flynn, Roger Kasperson, Howard
Cutting the Costs of Aging, Edward L.
Hair, Jay D. VIII(4):9-10
Kunreuther, Paul Slovic. VIII(4):42-48
Schneider. VII(4):47-49
Vaughn, Gerald F. VIII(4):10
Flynn, Michael S.
LETTERS
Making Peace With the Planet, by Barry
Review of A Better Idea: Redefining the
Berg, Robert L. VIII(2):16
Commoner; reviewed by William R.
Way Americans Work, by Donald E. Peter-
Cohen, Gene D. VIII(2):15
Moomaw. VIII(1):83-85
sen and John Hillkirk. VIII(3):83-86
Cohen, Harvey J. VIII(2):
Preserving Biodiversity in a Changing
Food and Drug Administration
Anderson, Robert E. VII(2): 14-15
Climate, Robert L. Peters and J. P. Myers.
Better Regulation for Better Drugs, Mark
Hill, Rolla B. VII(2): 14-15
Novitch. VIII(1):56-62
Vachon, R. Alexander. VIII(2):13-14
VIII(2):66-72
LETTER
Williams, T. Franklin. VIII(2):15
LETTER
Hendrix, John E. VIII(3):18
Mossinghoff, Gerald J. VIII(2):22-23
Fighting AIDS in Adolescents, Karen Hein.
Reducing the Health Risks of Sport Fish,
Foran, Jeffery A., and Barbara S. Glenn
VII(3):67-72
Jeffery A. Foran and Barbara S. Glenn.
Reducing the Health Risks of Sport Fish.
LETTER
VIII(2):73-77
VIIII(2):73-77
Dryfoos, Joy G. VIII(1):21-22
Save Beaches, Not Buildings, Orrin H.
Forests
Health Care and Gender, by Charlotte F.
Pilkey and William J. Neal. VIII(3):
The Road to Reduced Carbon Emissions,
Muller; reviewed by Deborah A. Stone.
36-41
Rosina Bierbaum and Robert M. Friedman.
VIII(3):89-91
LETTERS
VIII(2):58-65
Health Care Financing: How Much Reform
Dean, Robert G. VIII(4):16
Friedman, Paul J.
Is Needed?, Janet E. O' Keeffe. VIII(3):
Dixon, Katharine L. VIII(4):16-17
Controlling Conflict of Interest. VIII(1):
42-49
Houston, James R. VIII(4):-16
30-32
LETTERS
Siting Hazardous Waste Treatment
Friedman, Robert M., see Bierbaum and
Cantor, Joel C. VIII(4):13
Friedman
Pollack, Richard J. VIII(4):13-14
Facilities: The NIMBY Syndrome, by Kent
E. Portney; reviewed by Stephen T. Wash-
Fuels
Schramm, Carl J. VIII(4):14-15
burn and Robert H. Harris. VIII(1):86-88
Clean Air at a Reasonable Price, James W.
Health Care for the Uninsured, Molly Joel
To Market, To Market, Joseph I. Lieberman.
Kinnear. VIII(2):28-31
Coye. VII(4):56-62
LETTERS
LETTERS
VIII(4):25-29
Babikian, George H. VIIII(3):18-19
Dukakis, Michael. VIII(2):6
Toward a National Biodiversity Policy,
Imbrecht, Charles R. VIII(4):17-18
Gardner, Booth. VIII(2):6
Walter V. Reid. VIII(3):59-65
LETTERS
Seinfeld, John H. VIII(3):19
Lee, Philip R. VIII(2):6-7
Carpenter, Will D. VIII(4):20-21
Fusion
Legnini, Mark W. VIII(2):6-7
Csuti, Blair. VIII(4):21
The Politics of Fusion Research, W.D.
The Health of Americans, Michael A. Stoto.
Jamison, Cy. VIII(4):19-20
Kay. VIII(2):40-46
VIII(1):94-95
LaRoe, Edward T. VIII(4):21
LETTERS
Out of Bedlam: The Truth About
Scott, J. Michael. VIII(4):21
Dean, Stephen O. VIII(3):26-27
Deinstitutionalization, by Ann Braden
Woodwell, G. M. VIII(4):20
Happer, William. VIII(3):26
Johnson; reviewed by Leona L. Bachrach.
Kinter, Edwin E. VIII(3):27-28
VIII(1):91-93
The War Over Wetlands, Sara Nicholas.
VIII(4):35-41
Nevins, William M. VIII(3):24-26
Overhauling Carcinogen Classification,
Robert J. Moolenaar. VIII(4):70-75
Europe
Head to Head: The Coming Economic Bat-
The Profit Motive and Patient Care, by
Gansler, Jacques S.
tle Among Japan, Europe, and America, by
Bradford H. Gray; reviewed by Arnold S.
Restructuring the Defense Industrial Base.
Lester Thurow; reviewed by Bruce Stokes.
Relman. VIII(2):80-82
VIII(3):50-58
VIII(4):76-79
Reducing the Health Risks of Sport Fish,
Garfinkel, Simson L., Richard M.
Evolution
Jeffery A. Foran and Barbara S. Glenn.
Stallman, and Mitchell Kapor
The Covenant of the Wild: Why Animals
VIII(2):73-77
Why Patents Are Bad for Software.
Chose Domestication, by Stephen
Regulating Death: The Case of the Nether-
VIII(1):50-55
Budiansky; reviewed by Niles Eldredge.
lands, by Carlos F. Gomez; reviewed by
Gender
VIII(4):98-101
George J. Annas. VIII(3):91-94
Health Care and Gender, by Charlotte F.
Where's the Waste? Linda Miller Poore and
Muller; reviewed by Deborah A. Stone.
Devra Lee Davis. VIIII(3):78-79
Finneran, Kevin
VIII(3):89-91
Heaton, George R., Jr.
Beyond Globaloney. VIII(2):96
Glenn, Barbara S., see Foran and Glenn
Global Technology Policy: Is the United
Change and Continuity. VIII(1):96
Godwin, Stephen R., and Mark R. Dayton
States Ready? VIII(1):36-43
When Industry Speaks
VIII(4):80
Airline Deregulation. VIII(2):78-79
Herrick, Charles N.
Firearms
Greenhouse effect
Science and Climate Policy: A History
Reducing Firearm Injuries, Daniel W.
The Missing Data on Global Climate
Lesson. VIII(2):56-57
108
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
INDEX
Immigration
Okita, Saburo. VIII(3):
Kay, W.D.
Opening the Door for Immigrant Profes-
Okamura, Sogo. VIII(3):12
The Politics of Fusion Research.
sionals, Carl Shusterman. VIIII():32-35
Fiscal Alchemy: Transforming Debt into
VIII(2):40-46
LETTERS
Research, George E. Brown, Jr., and Daniel
Kinnear, James W.
Chamot, Dennis. VIII(3):22
R. Sarewitz. VIII(1):70-76
Clean Air at a Reasonable Price.
Morrison, Bruce A. VIII(3):22
LETTERS
VIII(2):28-31
Industrial policy
Amuzu, J. K. A. VIII(3):7-8
Knight, Jonathan
A Better Idea: Redefining the Way
Aréchiga, Hugo. VIII(3):7
Scientific Misconduct: The Rights of the Ac-
Americans Work, by Donald E. Petersen
Goldemberg, José. VIII(3):6-7
cused. VIII(1):28-29
and John Hillkirk; reviewed by Michael S.
Odhiambo, Thomas R. VIII(3):6
Kunreuther, Howard, see Flynn,
Flynn. VIII(3):83-86
Tyler, Lewis A. VIII(3):8-10
Kasperson, Kunreuther, and Slovic
The Business of Technology, Lawrence H.
Fulfilling the Promise of Environmental
Linden. VIII(4):60-68
Technology, Marc H. Ross and Robert H.
Hard Lessons in Cooperative Research,
Socolow. VII(3):61-66
Lave, Lester B., see Rubin, Lave, and
Jerry Werner and Jack Bremer. VII(3):
LETTERS
Morgan
44-49
Deland, Michael R. VIII(1):17
Legal issues
LETTERS
Lents, James M. VIII(1):17-18
Fighting Drug Abuse at the Local Level,
Chynoweth, Alan G. VIII(1):24-25
Global Technology Policy: Is the United
Paul S. Jellinek and Ruby P. Hearn.
Fields, Craig. VIII(1):22-24
States Ready? George R. Heaton, Jr.
VII(4):78-84
Norris, William C. VIII(1):22
VIII(1):36-43
LETTERS
Keeping the Workforce Competitive, W.
LETTERS
Hosmer, Clark. VIII(2):10-11
Wendell Fletcher and John A. Alic.
Kawaguchi, Yoriko. VIII(2):7
Rangel, Charles B. VIII(2):9-10
VIII(1):44-49
Owczarski, William A. VIII(2):8
The Laboratory Is Not a Courtroom,
LETTERS
Spencer, William J. VIII(2):7-8
Charles Maechling, Jr. VIII(3):73-77
Frey, Donald N. VIII(3):11
The Growing Hazard of Orbital Debris,
LETTERS
Packer, Arnold H. VIIII(3):10-11
Ray A. Williamson. VIII(1):77-82
Barber, Albert A. VIII(4):23-24
Rockefeller, Jay. VIII(3):10
The Politics of Proliferation, Janne E.
Friedman, Paul J. VIII(4):22
Restructuring the Defense Industrial Base,
Nolan. VIII(1):63-69
Robinson, Dorothy K. VIII(4):22-23
Jacques S. Gansler. VIII(3):50-58
Why Send Humans to Mars? Carl Sagan.
Zinder, Norton. VIII(4):23
LETTERS
VII(3):80-85
Opening the Door for Immigrant Profes-
Murrin, Thomas J. VIII(4):12-13
LETTERS
sionals, Carl Shusterman. VIIII():32-35
Perry, William J. VIII(4):10-11
Albrecht, Mark J. VIII(1):6-7
LETTERS
Rechtin, Eberhardt. VIII(4):11-12
Dyson, Freeman J. VIII(1):6
Chamot, Dennis. VIII(3):22
Weisburger, John H. VIII(4):19
Grey, Jerry. VIII(1):7-8
Morrison, Bruce A. VIII(3):22
Toward a U.S. Technology Policy, Lewis M.
Kaula, William M. VIII(1):10-12
Protecting Biotechnology's Pioneers, Lisa
Branscomb. VII(4):50-55
Logsdon, John M. VIII(1):8
J. Raines. VIII(2):33-39
LETTERS
Pike, John. VIII(1):10
LETTERS
Lyons, John W. VIII(2):8-9
Sheehan, William. VIII(1):8-10
Heesen, Mark G. VIIII(3):13-14
Zicherman, Joseph B. VIII(2):9
To Market, To Market, Joseph I. Lieberman.
Jancin, J., Jr. VIII(3):13
Injury prevention
VIII(4):25-29
Koenigsberg, I. Fred. VIII(3):13
Reducing Firearm Injuries, Daniel W.
Scientific Misconduct: The Rights of the
Webster, C. Patrick Chaulk, Stephen P.
Accused, Jonathan Knight. VIII(1):28-29
Teret, and Garen J. Wintemute. VII(3):
Japan
LETTERS
73-79
Crossroads for U.S.-Japan Relations,
Green, Harold P. VIII(3)23-24
LETTERS
Harold Brown. VIII(2):24-27
Weis, Judith S. VIII(3)24
Biden, Joseph R., Jr. VIII(1):18-19
LETTERS
Why Patents Are Bad for Software, Simson
Clarke, David A. VIII(1):20-21
Okita, Saburo.
L. Garfinkel, Richard M. Stallman, and
Houk, Vernon N. VIII(1):19-20
Okamura, Sogo. VIII(3):12
Mitchell Kapor. VIII(1):50-55
Kellermann, Arthur L. VIII(1):21
Global Technology Policy: Is the United
LETTERS
Mercy, James A. VIII(1):19-20
States Ready? George R. Heaton, Jr.
Field, Thomas G., Jr. VIII(2):22
Rosenberg, Mark L. VIII(1):19-20
VIII(1):36-43
Manbeck, Harry F., Jr. VIII(2):
Intellectual property
LETTERS
20-22
Protecting Biotechnology's Pioneers, Lisa
Kawaguchi, Yoriko. VIII(2):7
Leisure
J. Raines. VIII(2):33-39
Owczarski, William A. VIII(2):8
The Overworked American: The Unex-
LETTERS
Spencer, William J. VIII(2):7-8
pected Decline in Leisure, by Juliet B.
Heesen, Mark G. VIIII(3):13-14
Head to Head: The Coming Economic Bat-
Schor; reviewed by Alicia H. Munnell.
Jancin, J., Jr. VIII(3):13
tle Among Japan, Europe, and America, by
VIII(3):80-83
Koenigsberg, I. Fred. VIII(3):13
Lester Thurow; reviewed by Bruce Stokes.
Lieberman, Joseph I.
Why Patents Are Bad for Software, Simson
VIII(4):76-79
To Market, To Market. VIII(4):25-29
L. Garfinkel, Richard M. Stallman, and
Lessons from Japan: Helping Small
Linden, Lawrence H.
Mitchell Kapor. VIII(1):50-55
Manufacturers, Philip Shapira. VIII(3):
The Business of Technology. VIII(4):
LETTERS
66-72
60-68
Field, Thomas G., Jr. VIII(2):22
LETTERS
Manbeck, Harry F., Jr. VIII(2):20-22
Bingaman, Jeff. VIII(4):5
Intelligent Manufacturing Systems project
Friedman, David. VIII(4):8-9
Manufacturing
Global Technology Policy: Is the United
Fujita, Kuniko. VIII(4):9
Engineering Education for the Workers of
States Ready? George R. Heaton, Jr.
Martin, H. Lee. VIII(4):6-8
the Future, Don E. Kash and F. Karl Wil-
VIII(1):36-43
White, Robert M. VIII(4):5-6
lenbrock. VIII(4):30-34
LETTERS
Global Technology Policy: Is the United
Kawaguchi, Yoriko. VIII(2):7
Kapor, Mitchell, see Garfinkel, Stallman,
States Ready? George R. Heaton, Jr.
Owczarski, William A. VIII(2):8
and Kapor
VIII(1):36-43
Spencer, William J. VIII(2):7-8
Kash, Don E., and F. Karl Willenbrock
LETTERS
International cooperation
Crossroads for U.S.-Japan Relations,
Engineering Education for the Workers of
Kawaguchi, Yoriko. VIII(2):7
the Future. VIII(4):30-34
Owczarski, William A. VIII(2):8
Harold Brown. VIII(2):24-27
Kasperson, Roger, see Flynn, Kasperson,
Spencer, William J. VIII(2):7-8
LETTERS
Kunreuther, and Slovic
Lessons from Japan: Helping Small
SUMMER 1992
109
Manufacturers, Philip Shapira. VIII(3):
LETTERS
Better Regulation for Better Drugs, Mark
66-72
Firor, John. VIII(3):16
Novitch. VIII(1):56-62
LETTERS
Frosch, Robert A. VIII(3):16-17
LETTER
Bingaman, Jeff. VIII(4):5
Lee, Thomas H. VIIII(3):17-18
Mossinghoff, Gerald J. VIII(2):22-23
Friedman, David. VIII(4):8-9
Starr, Chauncey. VIII(3):14-16
Fulfilling the Promise of Environmental
Fujita, Kuniko. VIII(4):9
Wolff, George T. VIII(3):16-17
Technology, Marc H. Ross and Robert H.
Martin, H. Lee. VIII(4):6-8
National security
Socolow. VII(3):61-66
White, Robert M. VIII(4):5-6
The Perils of Government Secrecy, Steven
LETTERS
Restoring Upward Mobility, John F. Welch,
Aftergood. VIII(4):81-88
Deland, Michael R. VIII(1):17
Jr. VII(3):38-40
Neal, William J., and Orrin H. Pilkey
Lents, James M. VIII(1):17-18
LETTERS
Save Beaches, Not Buildings. VIII(3):
Reducing the Health Risks of Sport Fish,
Burke, James E. VIII(1):12
36-41
Jeffery A. Foran and Barbara S. Glenn.
Stewart, Donald M. VIIII():12-13
Netherlands
VIII(2):73-77
The Road to Reduced Carbon Emissions,
Regulating Death: The Case of the Nether-
The Road to Reduced Carbon Emissions,
Rosina Bierbaum and Robert M. Friedman.
lands, by Carlos F. Gomez; reviewed by
Rosina Bierbaum and Robert M. Friedman.
VIII(2):58-65
George J. Annas. VIII(3):91-94
VIII(2):58-65
Maritime industry
Nicholas, Sara
A Sea Change for the Maritime Industry,
A Sea Change for the Maritime Industry,
The War Over Wetlands. VIII(4):35-41
Charles A. Bookman. VII(2):87-90
Charles A. Bookman. VII(2):87-90
Nolan, Janne E.
LETTER
LETTER
The Politics of Proliferation. VIII(1):63-69
Kelly, Eugene M. VIII(1):18
Kelly, Eugene M. VIII(1):18
Novitch, Mark
To Market, To Market, Joseph I. Lieberman.
Mars
Better Regulation for Better Drugs.
VIII(4):25-29
Why Send Humans to Mars? Carl Sagan.
VIII(1):56-62
The War Over Wetlands, Sara Nicholas.
VII(3):80-85
Nuclear waste
VIII(4):35-41
LETTERS
Time to Rethink Nuclear Waste Storage,
Reid, Walter V.
Albrecht, Mark J. VIII(1):6-7
James Flynn, Roger Kasperson, Howard
Toward a National Biodiversity Policy.
Dyson, Freeman J. VIII(1):6
Kunreuther, Paul Slovic. VIII(4):42-48
VIII(3):59-65
Grey, Jerry. VIII(1):7-8
Nuclear weapons
Relman, Arnold S.
Kaula, William M. VIII(1): 10-12
Abolishing Long-range Nuclear Missiles,
Review of The Profit Motive and Patient
Logsdon, John M. VIII(1):8
Sidney D. Drell. VIII(3):34-35
Care, by Bradford H. Gray. VIII(2):80-82
Pike, John. VIII(1):10
Research and development
Sheehan, William. VIII(1):8-10
Metzger, Norman
O'Keeffe, Janet E.
The Business of Technology, Lawrence H.
Review of The Joy of Insight: Passions
Health Care Financing: How Much Reform
Linden. VIII(4):60-68
of a Physicist, by Victor Weisskopf.
Is Needed? VIII(3):42-49
Fulfilling the Promise of Environmental
VIII(2):88-91
Orvell, Miles
Technology, Marc H. Ross and Robert H.
Review of Electrifying America: Social
Socolow. VII(3):61-66
Review of Quantum Profiles, by Jeremy
Meanings of a New Technology, 1880-1940,
LETTERS
Bernstein. VIII(2):88-91
Deland, Michael R. VIII(1):17
Middle East
by David E. Nye. VIII(2):93-95
Lents, James M. VIII(1):17-18
The Control of the Middle East Arms Race,
by Geoffrey Kemp; reviewed by Gerald M.
Hard Lessons in Cooperative Research,
Park, Robert L.
Jerry Werner and Jack Bremer. VII(3):
Steinberg. VIII(4):101-105
Review of Teller's War: The Top-Secret
44-49
Toward Real Arms Control in the Middle
Story Behind the Star Wars Deception, by
LETTERS
East, Gerald M. Steinberg. VII(4):63-69
William J. Broad. VIII(4):92-94
Chynoweth, Alan G. VIII(1):24-25
LETTER
Patents
Fields, Craig. VIII(1):22-24
Shoval, Zalman. VIII(2):19-20
Protecting Biotechnology's Pioneers, Lisa
Norris, William C. VIII(1):22
Minorities
J. Raines. VIII(2):33-39
A New Model for U.S. Innovation, Daniel F.
Preparing Minorities for Science Careers,
LETTERS
Burton, Jr. VIII(4):52-59
JW Carmichael, Jr., and John P. Sevenair.
Heesen, Mark G. VIII(3):13-14
The Politics of Fusion Research, W.D.
VII(3):55-60
Jancin, J., Jr. VIII(3):13
Kay. VIII(2):40-46
LETTERS
Koenigsberg, I. Fred. VIII(3):13
LETTERS
Hilliard, Asa G. VIII(1):16-17
Why Patents Are Bad for Software, Simson
Dean, Stephen O. VIII(3):26-27
McBay, Shirley. VIII(1):16
L. Garfinkel, Richard M. Stallman, and
Happer, William. VIII(3):26
Missiles
Mitchell Kapor. VIII(1):50-55
Kinter, Edwin E. VIII(3):27-28
The Politics of Proliferation, Janne E.
LETTERS
Nevins, William M. VIII(3):24-26
Nolan. VIII(1):63-69
Field, Thomas G., Jr. VIII(2):22
Protecting Biotechnology's Pioneers, Lisa
Moolenaar, Robert J.
Manbeck, Harry F., Jr. VIII(2):20-22
J. Raines. VIII(2):33-39
Overhauling Carcinogen Classification.
Peters, Robert L., and J. P. Myers
LETTERS
VIII(4):70-75
Preserving Biodiversity in a Changing
Heesen, Mark G. VIIII(3):13-14
Moomaw, William R.
Climate. VIII(2):66-72
Jancin, J., Jr. VIII(3):13
Review of Making Peace With the Planet,
Pirie, Robert B., Jr.
Koenigsberg, I. Fred. VIII(3):13
by Barry Commoner. VIII(1):83-85
Review of Beyond the Thaw: A New
Toward a U.S. Technology Policy, Lewis M.
Morgan, M. Granger, see Rubin, Lave,
National Strategy, by S. J. Deitchman.
Branscomb. VII(4):50-55
and Morgan
VIII(2):91-93
LETTERS
Munnell, Alicia H.
Pollution
Lyons, John W. VIII(2):8-9
Review of The Overworked American: The
Where's the Waste? Linda Miller Poore and
Zicherman, Joseph B. VIII(2):9
Unexpected Decline in Leisure, by Juliet B.
Devra Lee Davis. VIIII(3):78-79
Research policy
Schor. VIII(3):80-83
Poore, Linda Miller, and Devra Lee Davis
Controlling Conflict of Interest, Paul J.
Myers, J. P., see Peters and Myers
Where's the Waste? VIIII(3):78-79
Friedman. VIII(1):30-32
LETTERS
National Acid Precipitation Assessment
Bulger, Roger J. VIII(3):23
Program
Raines, Lisa J.
Nobel, Joel J. VIII(3):23
Keeping Climate Research Relevant, Ed-
Protecting Biotechnology's Pioneers.
Crossroads for U.S.-Japan Relations,
ward S. Rubin, Lester B. Lave, and M.
VIII(2):33-39
Harold Brown. VIII(2):24-27
Granger Morgan. VIII(2):47-55
Regulatory policy
LETTERS
110
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
INDEX
Okita, Saburo. VIII(3):11-12
Robert W. Crandall. VIII(1):88-91
The Joy of Insight: Passions of a Physicist,
Okamura, Sogo. VIII(3):12
Rubin, Edward S., Lester B. Lave, and
by Victor Weisskopf; reviewed by Norman
Cutting the Costs of Aging, Edward L.
M. Granger Morgan
Metzger. VIII(2):88-91
Schneider. VII(4):47-49
Keeping Climate Research Relevant.
Opening the Door for Immigrant Profes-
LETTERS
VIII(2):47-55
sionals, Carl Shusterman. VIII(1):32-35
Berg, Robert L. VIII(2):16
Russell, Cristine
LETTERS
Cohen, Gene D. VIII(2):15
Review of Technological Risk, by H. W.
Chamot, Dennis. VIII(3):22
Cohen, Harvey J. VIII(2):15-16
Lewis. VIII(2):84-88
Morrison, Bruce A. VIII(3):22
Anderson, Robert E. VII(2): 14-15
Quantum Profiles, by Jeremy Bernstein;
Hill, Rolla B. VII(2): 14-15
reviewed by Norman Metzger. VIII(2):
Vachon, R. Alexander. VIII(2):13-14
Safety
88-91
Williams, T. Franklin. VIII(2):15
Airline Deregulation, Stephen R. Godwin
Teller's War: The Top-Secret Story Behind
Fiscal Alchemy: Transforming Debt into
and Mark R. Dayton. VIII(2):78-79
the Star Wars Deception, by William J.
Research, George E. Brown, Jr., and Daniel
Better Regulation for Better Drugs, Mark
Broad; reviewed by Robert L. Park.
R. Sarewitz. VIII(1):70-76
Novitch. VIII(1):56-62
VIII(4):92-94
LETTERS
LETTER
Shapira, Philip
Amuzu, J. K. A. VIII(3):7-8
Mossinghoff, Gerald J. VIII(2):22-23
Lessons from Japan: Helping Small
Aréchiga, Hugo. VIII(3):7
Reducing Firearm Injuries, Daniel W.
Manufacturers. VIII(3):66-72
Goldemberg, José. VIII(3):6-7
Webster, C. Patrick Chaulk, Stephen P.
Shusterman, Carl
Odhiambo, Thomas R. VIII(3):6
Teret, and Garen J. Wintemute. VII(3):
Opening the Door for Immigrant Profes-
Tyler, Lewis A. VIII(3):8-10
73-79
sionals. VIII(1):32-35
Fulfilling the Promise of Academic Re-
LETTERS
Slovic, Paul, see Flynn, Kasperson,
search, Roland W. Schmitt. VII(4):44-46
Biden, Joseph R., Jr. VIII(1):18-19
Kunreuther, and Slovic
LETTER
Clarke, David A. VIII(1):20-21
Small businesses
Brown, George E., Jr. VIIII(2):12-13
Houk, Vernon N. VIII(1):19-20
Lessons from Japan: Helping Small
Global Technology Policy: Is the United
Kellermann, Arthur L. VIII(1):21
Manufacturers, Philip Shapira. VIII(3):
States Ready? George R. Heaton, Jr.
Mercy, James A. VIII(1):
66-72
VIII(1):36-43
Rosenberg, Mark L. VIII(1):19-20
LETTERS
LETTERS
Reducing the Health Risks of Sport Fish,
Bingaman, Jeff. VIII(4):5
Kawaguchi, Yoriko. VIII(2):7
Jeffery A. Foran and Barbara S. Glenn.
Friedman, David. VIII(4):8-9
Owczarski, William A. VIII(2):8
VIIII(2):73-77
Fujita, Kuniko. VIII(4):9
Spencer, William J. VIII(2):7-8
A Sea Change for the Maritime Industry,
Martin, H. Lee. VIII(4):6-8
Hard Lessons in Cooperative Research,
Charles A. Bookman. VII(2):87-90
White, Robert M. VIII(4):5-6
Jerry Werner and Jack Bremer. VII(3):44-49
LETTER
Social change
LETTERS
Kelly, Eugene M. VIII(1):18
Electrifying America: Social Meanings of a
Chynoweth, Alan G. VIII(1):24-25
Sarewitz, Daniel R., see Brown and
New Technology, 1880-1940, by David E.
Fields, Craig. VIII(1):22-24
Sarewitz
Nye; reviewed by Miles Orvell. VIII(2):
Norris, William C. VIII(1):22
Science policy
93-95
Keeping Climate Research Relevant, Ed-
Cardinal Choices, by Gregg Herken;
Space policy
ward S. Rubin, Lester B. Lave, and M.
reviewed by Herbert York. VIII(4):89-92
The Growing Hazard of Orbital Debris,
Granger Morgan. VIII(2):47-55
Fiscal Alchemy: Transforming Debt into
Ray A. Williamson. VIII(1):77-82
LETTERS
Research, George E. Brown, Jr., and Daniel
LETTERS
Firor, John. VIII(3):
R. Sarewitz. VIII(1):70-76
Doyle, Stephen E. VIII(3):20
Frosch, Robert A. VIIII(3):16-17
LETTERS
Flury, Walter. VIII(3):21
Lee, Thomas H. VIII(3):
Amuzu, J. K. A. VIII(3):7-8
Kessler, Donald J. VIII(3):19-20
Starr, Chauncey. VIII(3):14-16
Aréchiga, Hugo. VIII(3):7
McKnight, Darren S. VIII(3):21
Wolff, George T. VIII(3):
Goldemberg, José. VIII(3):6-7
The Missing Data on Global Climate
The Missing Data on Global Climate
Odhiambo, Thomas R. VIII(3):6
Change, James Hansen, William Rossow,
Change, James Hansen, William Rossow,
Tyler, Lewis A. VIII(3):8-10
and Inez Fung. VII(1):62-69
and Inez Fung. VII(1):62-69
Fulfilling the Promise of Academic Re-
LETTER
LETTER
search, Roland W. Schmitt. VII(4):44-46
Mackenzie, F.T. VIII(1):26-27
Mackenzie, F.T. VIII(1):26-27
LETTER
Smith, S.V. VIII(1):26-27
Smith, S.V. VIII(1):26-27
Brown, George E., Jr. VIII(2):12-13
Why Send Humans to Mars? Carl Sagan.
The Politics of Fusion Research, W.D.
A New Model for U.S. Innovation, Daniel F.
VII(3):80-85
Kay. VIII(2):40-46
Burton, Jr. VIII(4):52-59
LETTERS
LETTERS
Science and Climate Policy: A History
Albrecht, Mark J. VIII(1):6-7
Dean, Stephen O. VIII(3):26-27
Lesson, Charles N. Herrick. VIII(2):56-57
Dyson, Freeman J. VIII(1):6
Happer, William. VIII(3):26
Toward a U.S. Technology Policy, Lewis M.
Grey, Jerry. VIII(1):7-8
Kinter, Edwin E. VIII(3):27-28
Branscomb. VII(4):50-55
Kaula, William M. VIII(1):
Nevins, William M. VIII(3):24-26
LETTERS
Logsdon, John M. VIII(1):8
Scientific Misconduct: The Rights of the
Lyons, John W. VIII(2):8-9
Pike, John. VIII(1):10
Accused, Jonathan Knight. VIII(1):28-29
Zicherman, Joseph B. VIII(2):9
Sheehan, William. VIII(1):8-10
LETTERS
Scientific misconduct
Stallman, Richard M., see Garfinkel,
Green, Harold P. VIII(3)23-24
The Laboratory Is Not a Courtroom, Char-
Stallman, and Kapor
Weis, Judith S. VIII(3)24
les Maechling, Jr. VIII(3):73-77
Steinberg, Gerald M.
Risk assessment
LETTERS
Review of The Control of the Middle East
Technological Risk, by H. W. Lewis;
Barber, Albert A. VIII(4):23-24
Arms Race, by Geoffrey Kemp.
reviewed by Cristine Russell. VIII(2):84-88
Friedman, Paul J. VIII(4):22
VIII(4):101-105
Ritvo, Harriet
Robinson, Dorothy K. VIII(4):22-23
Stokes, Bruce
Review of Machines as the Measure of
Zinder, Norton. VIII(4):23
Review of Head to Head: The Coming
Men: Science, Technology, and Ideologies
Scientific Misconduct: The Rights of the
Economic Battle Among Japan, Europe,
of Western Dominance, by Michael Adas.
Accused, Jonathan Knight. VIII(1):28-29
and America, by Lester Thurow. VIII(4):76-
VIII(3):86-89
LETTERS
79
Roetter, Martyn
Green, Harold P. VIII(3)23-24
Stone, Deborah A.
Review of After the Breakup: U.S. Telecom-
Weis, Judith S. VIII(3)24
Review of Health Care and Gender, by
munications in a More Competitive Era, by
Scientists
Charlotte F. Muller. VIII(3):89-91
SUMMER 1992
111
Stoto, Michael A.
Steves, Kurt. VIII(2):20
Okita, Saburo. VIIII(3):11-12
The Health of Americans. VIII(1):94-95
Crossroads for U.S.-Japan Relations,
Okamura, Sogo. VIII(3):12
Sustainable development
Harold Brown. VIII(2):24-27
Global Technology Policy: Is the United
An Industry Approach to Sustainable
LETTERS
States Ready? George R. Heaton, Jr.
Development, E.S. Woolard, Jr. VIII(3):
Okita, Saburo. VIIII(3):11-12
VIII(1):36-43
29-33
Okamura, Sogo. VIII(3):12
LETTERS
LETTERS
Hard Lessons in Cooperative Research,
Kawaguchi, Yoriko. VIII(2):7
Hair, Jay D. VIII(4):9-10
Jerry Werner and Jack Bremer. VII(3):
Owczarski, William A. VIII(2):8
Vaughn, Gerald F. VIII(4):10
44-49
Spencer, William J. VIII(2):7-8
LETTERS
Head to Head: The Coming Economic Bat-
Chynoweth, Alan G. VIII(1):24-25
Technological development
tle Among Japan, Europe, and America, by
Fields, Craig. VIII(1):22-24
Fulfilling the Promise of Environmental
Lester Thurow; reviewed by Bruce Stokes.
Norris, William C. VIII(1):22
Technology, Marc H. Ross and Robert H.
VIII(4):76-79
Lessons from Japan: Helping Small
Socolow. VII(3):61-66
The Health of Americans, Michael A. Stoto.
LETTERS
Manufacturers, Philip Shapira. VIII(3):
VIII(1):94-95
66-72
Deland, Michael R. VIII(1):17
LETTERS
Keeping the Workforce Competitive, W.
Lents, James M. VIII(1):17-18
Wendell Fletcher and John A. Alic.
Bingaman, Jeff. VIII(4):5
Machines as the Measure of Men: Science,
VIII(1):44-49
Friedman, David. VIII(4):8-9
Technology, and Ideologies of Western
LETTERS
Fujita, Kuniko. VIII(4):9
Dominance, by Michael Adas; reviewed by
Frey, Donald N. VIII(3):11
Martin, H. Lee. VIII(4):6-8
Harriet Ritvo. VIII(3):86-89
Packer, Arnold H. VIIII(3):10-11
White, Robert M. VIII(4):5-6
Technology policy
Telecommunications
Rockefeller, Jay. VIII(3):1
The Business of Technology, Lawrence H.
A New Model for U.S. Innovation, Daniel F.
After the Breakup: U.S. Telecommunica-
Linden. VIII(4):60-68
Burton, Jr. VIII(4):52-59
tions in a More Competitive Era, by Robert
Crossroads for U.S.-Japan Relations,
W. Crandall; reviewed by Martyn Roetter.
To Market, To Market, Joseph I. Lieberman.
Harold Brown. VIII(2):24-27
VIII(1):88-91
VIII(4):25-29
LETTERS
Trade
Okita, Saburo. VIIII(3):11-12
Controlling Dual-Use Technologies in the
Washburn, Stephen T., and Robert H.
Okamura, Sogo. VIII(3):12
New World Order, Mitchel B. Wallerstein.
Harris
Global Technology Policy: Is the United
VII(4):70-77
Review of Siting Hazardous Waste Treat-
States Ready? George R. Heaton, Jr.
LETTERS
ment Facilities: The NIMBY Syndrome, by
VIII(1):36-43
Frost, Ellen L. VIII(2):20
Kent E. Portney. VIII(1):86-88
LETTERS
Steves, Kurt. VIII(2):20
Waste disposal
Kawaguchi, Yoriko. VIII(2):7
Training
Time to Rethink Nuclear Waste Storage,
Owczarski, William A. VIII(2):8
Keeping the Workforce Competitive, W.
James Flynn, Roger Kasperson, Howard
Spencer, William J. VIII(2):7-8
Wendell Fletcher and John A. Alic.
Kunreuther, Paul Slovic. VIII(4):42-48
Making Peace With the Planet, by Barry
VIII(1):44-49
Wetlands
Commoner; reviewed by William R.
LETTERS
The War Over Wetlands, Sara Nicholas.
Moomaw. VIII(1):83-85
Frey, Donald N. VIII(3):11
VIII(4):35-41
A New Model for U.S. Innovation, Daniel F.
Packer, Arnold H. VIIII(3):10-11
Willenbrock, F. Karl, see Kash and
Burton, Jr. VIIII(4):52-59
Rockefeller, Jay. VIII(3):10
Willenbrock
Transportation
Toward a U.S. Technology Policy, Lewis M.
Williamson, Ray A.
Branscomb. VII(4):50-55
Airline Deregulation, Stephen R. Godwin
The Growing Hazard of Orbital Debris.
LETTERS
and Mark R. Dayton. VIII(2):78-79
VIII(1):77-82
Lyons, John W. VIII(2):8-9
The Road to Reduced Carbon Emissions,
Woolard, E. S., Jr.
Zicherman, Joseph B. VIII(2):9
Rosina Bierbaum and Robert M. Friedman.
Technology transfer
VIII(2):58-65
An Industry Approach to Sustainable
Development. VIII(3):29-33
Controlling Dual-Use Technologies in the
New World Order, Mitchel B. Wallerstein.
United States
VII(4):70-77
Crossroads for U.S.-Japan Relations,
York, Herbert
LETTERS
Harold Brown. VIII(2):24-27
Review of Cardinal Choices, by Gregg
Frost, Ellen L. VIII(2):20
LETTERS
Herken. VIII(4):89-92
112
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ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
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Source: Mark Clements Research, Inc.
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50
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58%
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20%
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10%
Median Household Income
$ 92,500
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$124,900
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$370,900
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$456,700
Household Net Worth $1,000,000 +
14%
Where They Work and What They Do
Total Professional/Managerial
97%
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47%
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25%
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40%
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13%
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12%
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10%
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58%
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33%
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30%
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19%
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19%
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14%
Influence (within last 12 months)
Spoke at a Professional Meeting
53%
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43%
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61%
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44%
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31%
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22%
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17%
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41%
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73%
Document Originally
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National Academy of Sciences
ISSUES
National Academy of Engineering
Institute of Medicine
IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
I'd be interested in any
suggestions you have for
potential industry anthors-
or any anthors For that matter.
Thanks,
Kevi