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1
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
October 22, 1990
MEMORANDUM FOR MEMBERS OF THE GLOBAL CHANGE STRATEGY TASK
FORCE
FROM:
D. ALLAN BROMLEY NMfor
SUBJECT:
Opening Statement by Dr. John Knauss for the
Second World Climate Conference
As promised, attached is a copy of the opening statement by Dr.
John Knauss, head of the U.S. Delegation to the Second World
Climate Conference. We are not requesting a review for style or
editing, but would ask that you read these draft remarks in the
context of our major policy issues which we will be discussing at
Tuesday's meeting. Please treat the attached statement as close
hold.
10/19/90 16:36
6475947 STATE DEPT OES/E
02
3 pm 19/X/90
Opening Statement of Dr. John Knauss
Second World Climate Conference
November 6-7, 1990
A great American statesman, philosopher, and sometime
scientist, Benjamin Franklin once observed that science is an
essential element of public service and public policy making.
The Second World Climate Conference and this Ministerial are
testament to the fact that science and environmental policy are
but two sides of the same coin.
The science which has resulted from the World Climate
Program, initiated from the First World Climate Conference in
1979, is now an essential element in public policy making.
Based on concerns then which included the effects of greenhouse
gases; depletion of stratospheric ozone: widespread. persistent
10/19/90 16:37
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-2-
drought and the possibility of global cooling, the First World
Climate Conference began 8 process to study the key issues that
are now the center of our current policy discussions. The
World Climate Program has served as a focus for international
scientific cooperation and provided much of the information
available today. Many contributed to this effort. Naturally,
T am proud of the U.S. role and the role of U.S. scientists
made to this successful Program.
We must now reaffirm our commitment to the World Climate
Program and to associated programs dealing with research on
climate and climate change. The U.S. pledges to continue its
support of international climate and climate change research.
We also pledge our continued support for the infrastructure
that supports these programs, such as the World Weather Watch,
the International Global Ocean Observing System, the Global
Atmosphere Watch and the Climate Studies Fund.
I have studied the Conference Statement from the scientific
proceedings carefully. This Statement identifies the key
issues that must be address if the science in this area is to
contribute to the public policy debate.
Several themes from this past week's conference have
10/19/90 16:37
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-3-
emerged. We must ensure that all of our often disparate
activities are fully coordinated. We must engender broad
participation in these global efforts, particularly from
developing countries.
Data and information are the foundation of understanding.
It is essential that there is full, open and efficient access
to and exchange of information and data. Without this full and
open exchange, our efforts are for naught. Closely linked to
this is our ability of our institutions to use the information
and data to translate scientific understanding into policy
decisions.
If these themos are put into practice, they will make 8
good scientific program better. In many respects, the work of
the World Climate Program is the foundation of the Report of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC
Report provides the first complete assessment of the science,
impacts and possible responses to climate change. It
the summarizes our present state of knowledge. It brings to light
them. gaps and uncertainties and it suggests actions to address
The World Climate Program can, and I believe, will
respond to the challenge this presents.
Yes, there are gaps, there are unanswered questions, and
10/19/90 16:37
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-4-
the models are based on assumptions which are not certainties.
But that doesn't mean we should not act. More knowledge, more
information, better models will always be required. The United
States is not waiting: we are already taking action.
We are taking actions now that, although they may affect
the climate, have other benefits. We estimate that current
U.S. environmental initiatives, when implemented, will reduce
net emissions of greenhouse cases.
These initiatives include:
phasing out the production of CFCs, halons, and other ozone
depleting substance by the year 2000 ((under the Montreal
Protocol))
reducing transportation emissions of reactive gases ((Clean
Air Act amendments, just signed into law by President
Bush) ) ((to be resubmitted to the U.S. Congress when it
reconvenes in 1991))
improving energy efficiency ((DoE initiative, proposed
regulations, Clean Air Act Amendments))
controlling emissions of methane from landfills ( (EPA
initiative, no proposed regulations))
increasing the forested areas in the U.S. through an
10/19/90 16:38
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-5-
aggressive tree planting program ((Presidential initiative,
America the Beautiful))
This is a comprehensive approach to a technically, economically
and politically complex issue.
There is a desire among the global community to leave for
our grandchildren an atmosphere not significantly different
than the one we now enjoy. From a scientific perspective and
based on our current scientific understanding, this means our
objective should be to focus on the concentrations of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. To do this, we must
consider all sources and sinks and understand, as best we can,
the dynamic processes involved. How we set specific objectives
can only be decided in the context of international
negotiations, with the widest possible participation. The U.S.
is eager for such negotiations to get underway in the
appropriate forum.
Science and environmental policy are but two sides of the
same coin. This Conference is the bridge between science and
policy decisions. Our role here is not to determine
framework convention on climate change. That is a task a
assigned to our negotiators beginning in February 1991 in
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-6-
Washington, D.C. We should not attempt to predeterming the
results of those negotiations any more than scientists should
predetermine the results of scientific research. Let us use
our time to reflect on how best to meld science with policy.
Let us use our time here to build a strong, yet flexible bridge
to make science an essential component of public policy making.
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
BROMLEY
DRAFT: DO NOT QUOTE OR DISTRIBUTE
[August 30, 1990]
THE MAKING OF A GREENHOUSE POLICY
by D. Allan Bromley
[draft article for Fall issue of
Issues in Science and Technology]
Within the past several years, global change has become the archetypal science
policy issue. It combines almost all of the elements of public policy debates that have
a substantial scientific component: questions about scientific data and conclusions,
the difficulty of translating scientific analysis into politically relevant terms, competing
interests with multiple agendas, differing international perspectives on common
problems, and decision-making based on less-than-complete information. It has
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BROMLEY
received an enormous amount of attention from politicians, from environmentalists,
from the media, and from the public. Since I became Assistant to the President for
Science and Technology last August, no issue has consumed more of my time than
has global change.
Given the broad slate of science policy issues that demand attention, it can
sometimes be frustrating to dwell so predominantly on a phenomenon -
anthropogenic climate change on a global scale - that has yet to be conclusively
demonstrated. Not that the global environment has never changed. At the height of
the last ice age about 20,000 years ago -- not long, in geological terms, before humans
are widely believed to have first crossed the Bering land bridge into North America --
glaciers over two kilometers high covered much of the northern United States and
Europe, and sea level was 100 meters lower than at present. These natural changes
in the Earth's climate have occurred throughout its history, and they will continue to
occur in the future.
It is also true that, during the past century, human society has entered into a
new and momentous relationship with the global environment. For the first time in
history, our species has become an agent capable of influencing the entire planet. We
have altered the face of the Earth by clearing forests, building cities, and converting
wild lands to agriculture. We have changed the composition of the Earth's
atmosphere by burning fossil fuels, expanding agriculture, and producing and
releasing industrial compounds. As Roger Revelle and Hans E. Suess wrote as early
2
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
BROMLEY
as 1957, "human beings are now carrying out a large-scale geophysical experiment of
a kind that could not have happened in the past nor be reproduced in the future."
It may be, as many have suggested, that global climate change will become a
problem of very serious consequence. Certainly, the possibility of such change is
being taken seriously by all governments, and appropriate actions are being
considered to deal with the possible effects of climate change.
It may also be that the other issues usually subsumed under the term "global
change" - such as ozone depletion, the adequacy of food and water supplies,
deforestation, desertification, levels of biodiversity, or soil erosion - turn out to be
more serious in terms of human impact than global climate change. The only
reasonable course is to move forward on all of these issues simultaneously.
Scientific knowns and unknowns
Bertrand Russell once wrote, "The most savage controversies are those about
matters as to which there is no good evidence either way." Certainly if more were
known about global change, the policy disputes would not be nearly so acrimonious.
If it were possible, for example, to unequivocally associate the warmer-than-average
years of the 1980s with the greenhouse effect, multibillion-dollar decisions affecting
life-styles and the quality of life would appear less open to question. If computer
models of the earth system could precisely mimic the observed temperatures changes
3
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
BROMLEY
of the past century, they would provide a more solid foundation for policymaking.
For that matter, the policy debate will be quite different in the year 2000 if
temperatures rise sharply in the 1990s.
For now, though, it is important for policymakers clearly to keep in mind what
is known and what is not known about the Earth system. Based on exacting
measurements of atmospheric gases and the bubbles trapped in ice sheets, researchers
know that the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased by about 25
percent since preindustrial times. Atmospheric levels of methane, another potent
greenhouse gas, have doubled over the same period. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC's)
released into the atmosphere, which are almost certainly responsible for the ozone
hole over Antarctica, also act as greenhouse gases, as do several other atmospheric
constituents with increasing concentration levels, including tropospheric ozone and
nitrous oxide.
Computer models of the atmosphere reproduce the current global climate and
changes of seasons with a fair degree of accuracy. When these models are run with
twice as much carbon dioxide in their atmospheres, global average surface
temperature is somewhere between 1.5 and 4.5 degrees Celsius higher than at present.
However, the treatment in these models of such fundamental and important features
of the Earth system as clouds, oceans, and ice remain suspect. It may be that the
models inadequately simulate some fundamental aspect of the Earth system that
drastically reduces the predicted climate effects of greenhouse gas emissions - or
makes them worse.
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ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
BROMLEY
Thus, computer models have been unable to specify with any certainty the
magnitude, rate, or timing of future climate change. Nor do models give much
indication of how potentially-important climate variables - including mean annual
temperatures, seasonal and daily maximums and minimums in temperature, seasonal
and annual precipitation, the degree and frequency of variations in precipitation, and
the degree and frequency of extreme events such as storms - might change.
Furthermore, present models are totally unable to make reliable climate predictions
on regional and local scales, yet these are essential if we are to be able to quantify
the detailed impacts of global change.
The geological record also offers incomplete clues to the effects of greenhouse
forcing. Earth scientists have found that global temperatures and atmospheric carbon
dioxide levels have risen and fallen naturally and largely in parallel for the past
160,000 years. However, it is difficult to tell whether temperatures lead carbon
dioxide or vice versa, and the mechanisms connecting these natural fluctuations
remain obscure.
The same pattern of concrete observations paired with uncertain implications
marks the record of global temperatures. Scientists now generally agree that the
planet has warmed up by 0.3 to 0.6 degrees Celsius during the past century. But very
few scientists would claim that they are yet able to determine whether any of that
warming can be attributed to an enhanced greenhouse effect or whether it represents
a natural fluctuation. Of particular interest in this regard have been recent precise
temperature measurements by satellite of the global atmosphere. They show that,
5
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
BROMLEY
even though surface measurements in some regions indicate that the 1980s were one
of the warmest decades on record, average global temperatures did not increase from
1979 to 1989. Yet the magnitude and rate of increase of anthropogenic loading of the
atmosphere with greenhouse gases were at unprecedented levels during the 1980s.
Based on climatic modeling and paleoclimatic research, scientists now generally
agree that continued loading of the atmosphere with greenhouse gases will lead to
global climate change. But without further research, the nature and dimensions of
that change will remain elusive. Furthermore, we are only beginning to understand
what the impacts of a potential change might be on agricultural productivity, sea level
changes, biological productivity in the oceans, shifting vegetation patterns, storm
patterns and severity, droughts, and the like. The various components of the
geosphere, hydrosphere, atmosphere, and biosphere are bound up in a fantastically
intricate and mutually counterbalancing system, and it will be many years before we
can reliably predict how changes in one part of the system affect every other part.
Numerous uncertainties
Many of the observations made above also appear in the report of Working
Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), an international
body of hundreds of scientists and government officials set up by the United Nations
Environment Program and World Meteorological Program to establish a global
6
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
BROMLEY
consensus on the likely causes and consequences of climate change. The charge to
Working Group I, which was chaired by the United Kingdom, was to assess the
current scientific understanding of climate change. The second working group,
chaired by the Soviet Union, assessed the possible environmental and socioeconomic
effects of a changing climate. The third, chaired by the United States, sought to
identify potential responses to climatic changes.
The three working groups presented their reports at the end of the summer as
input to the Second World Climate Conference in Geneva on October 29 - November
7, 1990. These reports are an important resource for policymakers grappling with
issues of global change. They will be among the most authoritative statements on the
causes and consequences of climate change well into the future.
Nevertheless, to read the reports of the IPCC is to be struck again by the
formidable difficulties that still surround this subject. Working Group I devoted
considerable attention to scientific uncertainties in its report (although they tend to
be minimized in the Executive Summary), concluding that "much uncertainty exists in
the prediction of global climate properties such as temperatures and rainfall" and
that "even greater uncertainty exists in predictions of regional climate change, and the
subsequent consequences for sea level and ecosystems."
Working Group II's study of potential impacts also cited the uncertainties
hampering their task, pointing out that "confidence in regional estimates of critical
climate factors is low, [particularly] of precipitation and soil moisture, where there is
considerable disagreement between various general-circulation-model and paleoanalog
7
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
BROMLEY
results." The working group also found many scientific questions surrounding the
relationships between climate change and biological effects and between biological
effects and socioeconomic impacts. Uncertainties about the lengths of time lags at
each step from emissions to climate change to socioeconomic impacts are particularly
troublesome, because the severity of impacts depends on the ability to adjust and
hence partially on the length of the lags.
Finally, Working Group III concluded that the existing uncertainties make it
very difficult to determine which responses to potential climate change make sense. It
wrote: "The consideration of climate change response strategies ... presents
formidable difficulties for policymakers. On the one hand, the information available
to make sound policy analyses is inadequate because of: (a) remaining scientific
uncertainties regarding the magnitude, timing, rate, and regional consequences of
potential climate change; (b) uncertainty with respect to how effective specific
response options or groups of options would be in actually averting potential climate
change; and (c) uncertainty with respect to the costs, effects on economic growth, and
other economic and social implications of specific response options or groups of
options."
These many uncertainties do not argue for inaction (a point to which I shall
return later). But they do make it exceedingly difficult to impose policies that may
have large additional costs on specific sectors of society or on specific countries,
because the affected sectors or countries can legitimately point to the uncertainties in
arguing against the policies. The wrangling involved in getting a Clean Air Act
8
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
BROMLEY
through Congress gives some indication, on a much smaller scale, of what will be
involved in negotiations over global change.
At the same time, any discussion of uncertainties must acknowledge the fact
that the unknowns cut both ways: climate models could understate as well as
overstate the extent of the problem. For example, there is growing suspicion from the
paleoecological data - as yet unconfirmed that atmosphere-ocean interactions may
harbor the possibility of surprises. If it should turn out, for example, that relatively
small, and not as yet understood, mechanisms could shift ocean circulation patterns
from one stable configuration to another, the potential impacts could be large.
A better known example of a climatic surprise was the development of the
ozone hole over Antarctica. The ozone hole was not predicted or originally
understood, although its detailed chemical mechanisms have now been explained at
the molecular level. Nevertheless, the ozone hole has demonstrated that, contrary to
long-held assumptions, our atmosphere is not so large, nor its inertia so great, that
human activities cannot affect it under certain circumstances on human time scales.
Human release of CFCs, combined with unique meteorological conditions, created the
ozone hole in only a few decades at most.
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BROMLEY
The need for research
In the absence of a clearly identifiable signal of greenhouse warming - which
the IPCC deems unlikely for a decade or more - there is only one way to reduce the
uncertainties associated with global change: through concerted national and
international research programs. In the United States, such a program has been
organized by the Working Group on Global Change of the federal interagency
Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences. This U.S. Global Change Research
Program - a government-wide effort to monitor and understand the Earth system and
predict global change - is designed to significantly expand data gathering, research,
and modeling activities. A significant component of the program is environmental
observations and measurements from space.
The budget that President Bush sent to Capitol Hill last January - reflecting
the compelling case made by the Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences for
a comprehensive, national program - called for a 57 percent increase in funding for
the program, to a total of over $1 billion. This is far more than any other nation is
spending on global change research and in my view is a clear indication of this
Administration's commitment to what President Bush has termed "global stewardship."
The committee has focused on three classes of key scientific questions: What
global change has occurred in the past and is occurring now? What physical,
chemical, biological, geological, and social processes are involved in global change?
And how well can global change be predicted globally and regionally? To address
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these questions, the committee has divided the research program into seven
interdisciplinary scientific elements: climate and hydrologic systems, biogeochemical
dynamics, ecological systems and dynamics, earth system history, human interactions,
solid earth processes, and solar influences.
To take one important research area as an example, the committee has
emphasized the need to better understand both natural and anthropogenic flows of
greenhouse gases. According to the IPCC, a reduction of over 60 percent in carbon
dioxide emissions would be needed to stabilize the concentration of the gas at current
levels - a restriction that would sharply reduce living standards around the world
and cause widespread suffering in poorer nations. But the natural fluxes of carbon
dioxide are approximately 20 times the anthropogenic ones, so the same net effect can
be obtained through only a 2 to 3 percent increase in the gas's natural sinks.
Innovative ideas on ways to draw carbon dioxide from the air - such as macroalgal
ocean farming and fertilizing microalgal blooms - are now being proposed. Much
more study of natural sources and sinks is needed, of course, to determine if
proposals such as these are viable.
The economic factor
This scientific research will be an indispensable part of our response to the
possibility of global change. But it is important to keep in mind that even if all of
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the physical, chemical, and biological questions surrounding global change were
answered tomorrow, appropriate policies would still be far from obvious. Global
change is an inherently interdisciplinary problem, drawing not only on the natural
sciences but on economics, sociology, and (especially in the last few years) politics.
The full range of questions surrounding global change cannot be answered without
input from the social sciences.
The most obvious intersection of global change with the social sciences involves
future emissions. It is certainly possible to conceive of a world that supports an even
larger population while releasing fewer greenhouse gases into the atmosphere
(although the costs required to achieve such a world are likely to be very great). It is
also possible to conceive of a world with global greenhouse emissions at least several
times today's level, particularly if CFC's are not fully controlled and if countries
begin to rely much more extensively on coal for increased energy needs.
The major social uncertainties revolve around population growth rates, the pace
and nature of economic development, and the availability of new technologies. These
uncertainties are particularly acute for the developing world. According to the World
Resources Institute, developing countries already account for a substantial portion of
total greenhouse emissions when all greenhouse gases are included; in fact, the top
five greenhouse contributors in 1987 were the United States, the Soviet Union, Brazil,
China, and India. Furthermore, the relative contribution of the developing countries
is going to continue to increase as their industrialization proceeds.
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Economics research will also be crucial in estimating the costs of either
mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse-gas emissions now or adapting to
climate change after it occurs. Such research will enable sound comparisons of the
costs of various policies aimed at mitigation with the benefits, in terms of reduced
adaptation costs, that those policies would yield. Such comparisons, using discounting
to reflect the earlier occurrence of mitigation costs, must be the basis for sound
policymaking.
Several promising estimates of costs are already being developed, but no one
doubts that these estimates will inevitably rest on numerous simplifying assumptions.
One problem is that the nature of costs varies from place to place. In the developed
countries, costs of lowering energy usage can be measured in terms of reduced
economic growth, which causes economic hardships to substantial numbers of people.
But in the developing world, reduced economic growth must be measured in more
stark terms: lives lost, hunger increased, social instability heightened. Similarly, the
costs of climate change in the developing world are likely to be higher and more
disruptive than in the developed nations, where it is more likely that the resources to
adapt to changing climates will be available.
The central role of economics research in global change was a major
consideration in the White House Conference on Science and Economics Research
Related to Global Change, which was held in Washington, D.C., on April 17-18, 1990.
Hosted by Michael Deland, Chairman of the Council on Environmental Quality,
Michael Boskin, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors, and myself, the
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BROMLEY
conference brought together delegations from 17 countries and from the European
Community and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development to
explore what we know and do not know about the scientific, economic, and policy
questions surrounding global change.
The conference was organized around a straightforward but surprisingly
unexplored question: How best can the results of both scientific and economic
research into global change be integrated into the policymaking process? Although
the format of the conference received some criticism, it achieved much of what it set
out to achieve. In particular, several promising proposals on international
cooperation emerged from the conference, including one to establish a series of
research institutes devoted to the scientific, economic, and policy issues surrounding
the global environment. The transnational and multidisciplinary nature of such
institutes would provide an added dimension to national and international discussions
of global change.
An insurance policy against climate change
After a year of intense involvement with this issue, I am convinced that, at
present, no justification exists for imposing substantial new costs on society solely to
lower greenhouse-gas emissions. But the climate models and paleoclimatic data
cannot be ignored, and the United States and other countries cannot wait until all of
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the facts are known to take action. Enhanced levels of research - in many areas -
are one form of action, but they are not, by themselves, enough.
Thus, the Bush Administration has instituted a number of policies that will
reduce greenhouse-gas emissions and that are justified for other reasons as well. I
think of them as an "insurance policy" that will delay any possible adverse effects of
climate change while research and technology development proceed. Among these
policies are the following:
0
The United States is committed to phasing out the manufacture of CFC's by
the year 2000 to protect the stratospheric ozone layer. Based on their greenhouse
properties, CFC's accounted for 14 percent of all greenhouse-gas emissions in the
1980s, and if not controlled they could account for as much as 25 percent of the
additional emissions over the next century.
0 The Clean Air Act now being debated in Congress will substantially reduce
emissions of greenhouse gases by fostering more efficient use of energy. The
Environmental Defense Fund has estimated that the acid rain provisions of this
legislation alone, if implemented, will have an effect comparable to that of removing
fully one fifth of the U.S. automotive fleet (22 million automobiles) from our highways
for a period of 10 years.
0 The U.S. Department of Energy is developing a National Energy Strategy
that will include an aggressive commitment to energy conservation and energy
security. Energy conservation is the quickest and most effective way to reduce
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greenhouse-gas emissions and can have a number of other benefits, including
improved economic efficiency, reduced emissions of other pollutants, and less U.S.
dependence on imported oil. In addition, technology development is a crucial hedge
against the possibility of future warming, because it will ease the transition from
processes that produce greenhouse gases (if substantial emission reductions prove
necessary). Research and development on non-fossil-fuel technologies - including
nuclear energy and solar energy will be an important component of any national or
international strategy to address global change.
These initiatives address the source component of the greenhouse gas question.
Turning to the sink component, this country is again taking concrete steps.
0 The President has proposed a combined public and private sector initiative
to plant a billion trees per year for five years on private land across America, trees
that will eventually absorb 13 million tons of carbon annually. This is just part of
the United States' current carbon emissions - about 5 percent if such a program
were continued for 20 years - but these trees will provide additional benefits, such as
recreational areas and heightened public awareness of environmental issues.
0 At the Houston Summit Conference in July, the President proposed that a
global forestry convention be negotiated as soon as possible to curb deforestation,
protect biodiversity, address threats to the world's forests, and promote actions that
expand and strengthen forests.
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All of these actions are justified for other reasons, yet together they can have a
substantial impact on greenhouse-gas emissions. Preliminary estimates by the
Environmental Protection Agency indicate that, using a measure of global warming
potential that accounts for residence times in the atmosphere, these actions would
hold U.S. greenhouse-gas emissions at 1987 levels until at least the year 2000. This
would provide a ten-year window of opportunity to determine what future actions are
necessary.
Insurance policies against the possibility of climate change are not limited to
our own country. As in the case of deforestation, the United States can also influence
the actions of other countries in ways that are mutually beneficial. I believe that this
country now has a unique window of opportunity in which to provide Third World
and Eastern European nations with technology, know-how, and financial assistance to
permit them sustained economic growth with minimal damage to the global
environment. If we do this on our own initiative, we will gain three benefits: we act
to preserve the quality of the environment; we have the potential of substantial
positive political fall-out; and we gain access for American industry to what will
inevitably be a very large global market. If, on the other hand, we are pressured or
are perceived to be pressured into taking such action, we will gain the first benefit
but stand to lose the second and much of the third.
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A Framework Convention
These considerations will be very much a part of the next major step in the
making of a greenhouse policy: the establishment of a Framework Convention on
climate change. At the Malta summit last December, President Bush proposed that
the first negotiating sessions leading to such an international agreement be held in
the United States, an offer that he has repeated several times since.
In considering the outlines of a Framework Convention, a useful analog is the
Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer, which was established by
the United States and 20 other countries in 1985. The Vienna Convention established
a framework for international scientific and technical cooperation on ozone
destruction. It did not, however, set limits on CFC emissions. Rather, it included
provisions to establish protocols as further research demonstrated the need for
additional action. The 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that deplete the Ozone
Layer was the result of this process.
A Framework Convention on global change could serve the same function,
although CFC emissions and greenhouse-gas emissions are quite different phenomena.
Such a convention would establish general principles and obligations, based on a
negotiated international consensus, by which future steps can be taken. It would be
designed to gain the adherence of the largest possible number of countries while
permitting timely action to be taken. The United States is now in the process of
18
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
BROMLEY
formulating its position for the negotiations, with coordination being provided by a
White House Working Group on Global Change that I chair.
This negotiating position will reflect the extensive discussions that have been
taking place within the U.S. government on environmental issues. As one example of
these discussions, I might cite the Administration's work on emissions trading. If
future restrictions on greenhouse emissions prove necessary, market-based approaches
to implement those restrictions would be far preferable to command-and-control
approaches. One such market-based approach involves a comprehensive system in
which all sources and sinks of all greenhouse gases are treated on a common footing
in terms of an appropriate greenhouse warming potential. Such a measure would
include established scientific knowledge regarding the greenhouse effectiveness of
individual chemicals and their average lifetime in the atmosphere.
Once such a comprehensive approach is adopted, it becomes easier to use
market forces to achieve reductions in greenhouse gas emissions at minimum costs.
This could well encompass bilateral and multilateral arrangements in which a given
country might find it economically attractive to help another country achieve net
global benefits at lower total cost than if each country were to act independently.
This process of emissions trading has been successfully implemented in a number of
situations, and it bears much promise for dealing with emissions of greenhouse gases.
Such innovative approaches are going to be essential to meet the main
challenge of international agreements on climate change: establishing mechanisms
that are both effective and workable. The negotiations leading to a Framework
19
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
BROMLEY
Convention and any subsequent protocols will encompass an unprecedented range of
national and international policies, and no country is likely to be coerced into actions
that are not in its long-term interests. But ensuring a stable and predictable
environment is in everyone's interest, and actions that genuinely help to achieve that
end will carry great force.
20
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
October 23, 1990
MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT
FROM:
ROGER B. PORTER
SUBJECT:
The Second World Climate Conference
This responds to your request for an assessment of
prospects for the Second World Climate Conference, which will
be held in Geneva from October 29 to November 7.
The Conference will address the climate change agenda for the
1990s.
The First World Climate Conference, held in 1979, defined
the world climate program that has been the basis for joint
action over the past decade. The broad objective of the Second
Conference is to set the international agenda for climate
change activities for the next decade.
The Conference will review three reports of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) -- on
scientific evidence, potential effects, and response
strategies. It will then attempt to identify principles for
negotiations on a framework convention on climate change.
These negotiations will begin next February (in Washington) and
run at least through March 1992.
The U.S. will be a leader in discussions on research.
The Conference is divided into two parts. During the
first week, scientists will discuss changes needed in the world
climate research program for the next ten years. While no
official delegations have been invited, U.S. scientists will be
led by Dr. Joe Friday, head of Commerce's National Weather
Service. Because the U.S. is the world leader in global
climate change research (spending nearly $1 billion in 1991),
we will urge greater research commitments from others,
including developing countries.
We may be isolated in negotiations on the declaration.
During the second week, ministers will attempt to remove
the extensive brackets in a draft declaration. The U.S. is
likely to be isolated on three familiar issues.
There will be wide support for endorsing the
precautionary principle, which would obligate
-2-
governments to attack climate change problems
regardless of the uncertainty over causes and
solutions.
The northern Europeans and the Nordics want to
establish targets and timetables. We have refused,
citing the probable negative effects on growth.
Developing countries want a commitment to receive new
and additional resources to address climate change
problems. We have challenged the view that resources
for the environment should be isolated from resources
for other activities.
We also may be criticized for our refusal to endorse the report
of the IPCC's science panel. We question the report's analysis
of the threat posed by the greenhouse effect and its call for
prompt action. Because the U.S. position is well known,
however, other countries are likely to criticize us less
stridently than in the past.
The U.S. will attempt to focus attention on practical next
steps.
The head of our delegation, NOAA Administrator John
Knauss, will take a pragmatic approach. He will refuse to get
drawn into extensive debates over rhetoric in the draft
declaration. If necessary, we will table a no-frills draft
that we could sign. Instead, he will focus on our willingness
to begin negotiations on a framework convention on climate
change. He will also emphasize the strong U.S. record of
action on climate change -- notably the recent Clean Air Act.
Our strategy appears sound. Any lingering criticism will
probably dissipate by February, when attention will turn to the
framework convention.
The U.S. is being unfairly criticized for its level of
representation.
The press has criticized the U.S. for sending John Knauss,
when Prime Minister Thatcher and Chancellor Kohl may attend.
In fact, if Thatcher and Kohl attend, they will address the
Conference at the beginning of its second week. For the rest
of the week, all countries will be represented by environment
ministers. Knauss is accepted in this group, having been the
U.S. delegate at the Bergen and Noordwijk Conferences.
#9 Things We Are Doing - No Repeb
Q - When will bes Sorille out an own - what meeds to be known - -
If had answer /
- can't say for sme-
L11617 question asked
1) mnt Compelly Swinn - Majnitudes But
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2) Cost -
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4) what impact will whave
University of Illinois
Physics Department
at Urbana-Champaign
Loomis Laboratory of Physics
1110 West Green Street
Urbana, Illinois 61801
Phone 217-333-3827
July 18, 1990
Teresa Goreman
Old Executive Office Bld.Rm 227
White House
Washington D.C. 20500
Dear Ms Goreman:
Paul Roelling suggested that I write to you about my research in climate.
At present there is only wild speculation about what the crude computer models may
or may not be right. The argument is restricted to whether they are right or wrong.
No one had considered that there may be other explanations that lie outside the realm
of the present debate.
My research on volcanic aerosols has shown that they have the potential to be an
alternative explanation to the observed data.
The reason most climate modelers have neglected the effect of volcanoes on climate is
that they are unaware of the recent Greenland ice core work which at the present
times is still only partly published.
The enclosed newspaper article from the LA Times shows just how powerful this
alternative paradigm is. It not only explains the present drought in California, the
low lake levels on the Great Lakes but the 100 year heating of the earth. It also
explains the disappearance of the drought in the Sahel as well as the fact that India
has had three good monsoons in a row.
Large volcanic eruptions can cool the earth and lack of these eruptions will cause the
earth to warm. The 1500 year record from the Greenland ice core shows that volcanic
activity has decreased quite dramatically in the last hundred years and therefore
more radiation is striking the earth. Thus the earth should be warming up. The ice
core data also explain the appearance of the Little Ice Age of 1300-1850 AD and the
extreme warmth of the period 1000-1250 AD when Greenland was green and trees
grew there. See enclosed talk given at the University of Chicago this spring.
I believe that I can be very helpful to the White House's present position on global
warming. If you would be interested in a presentation I would be happy to provide
one. You may wish to call Fred Seitz as a reference (212-570-8423).
Sincerely yours,
Paul Handler
Paul Handler
Professor of Physics
Enclosures.
DEPARTMENT
OF PHYSICS
CENTENNIAL
1890-1990
Reprinted from the Los Angeles Times, April 2, 1990
Compliments of Paul Handler
Science / Medicine
University of Illinois
217-333-3827
Weather: Physicist Paul
correlates with the "little ice age" in
Europe, a period when glacier movement
Handler says America's dry
Sulfur-dloxide
Incoming solar
As the sulfurio-acid cloud
HOW VOLCANIC
increased dramatically in the Alps and
1
2
periods, corn production in the
gas causes
radiation
spreads, it disrupts normal
average temperatures were an estimated 5
long-range changes.
weather patterns by reflecting
ERUPTIONS
degrees cooler than now.
Midwest and the level of Lake
Once in the stable
sunlight, decreasing the amount
Although there was a brief period of
Michigan can be determined by
stratosphere, it is
of radiation striking the Earth.
AFFECT WEATHER
volcanic activity in the late 19th Century,
converted to
volcanic activity has been relatively low
volcanic activity.
sulfuric-acid
throughout the 20th Century, leading to an
droplets which can
overall warming. That warming, Handler
persist for years.
By THOMAS H. MAUGH II
cautions, is superimposed on the warming
TIMES SCIENCE WRITER
caused by the greenhouse effect, which
results from the release of carbon dioxide
into the atmosphere from burning of fossil
C
alifornia's 4-year-old drought will
not ease until a volcano erupts at
fuels.
latitudes near the Equator, accord-
ing to University of Illinois physi-
cist Paul Handler.
"I think volcanoes are an important
Volcanic eruptions in that region prb-
source of climate change over the last 100
duce stratospheric dust and sulfur dioxide
years," said climatologist Allan Robock
gas that prevent a small portion of sun-
of the University of Maryland in Coll-
light from reaching the Earth's sur-
ege Park. "The data indicate that
face, thereby altering climate in
the greenhouse warming was ob-
what Handler believes to be
served, but was masked to some
highly predictable ways.
extent by volcanoes:
That
He has linked volcanic
implies that greenhouse warm
eruptions-or their absence-
ing will continue into the future."
to corn production in the Midwest,
VOLCANO PATTERN
NORMAL PATTERN
Most of Handler's correlations have been
water levels of the Great Salt Lake and
retrospective, but they do have some
Lake Michigan, warming of the Pacific
predictive value as well. Geochemist Mary
Ocean, the colonization of Greenland, the
Jo Spencer of the University of New
"little ice age" that afflicted Europe in the
Hampshire in Durham has been studying
middle of this millennium and even the
ice cores, extending back 800 years, ob-
disappearance of the Mesa Verde Indians in
tained in Greenland from a site near a U.S.
the Southwest and the Kahoki Indians in
radar installation.
Illinois.
Summer
Spencer noted that in Handler's initial
Handler's theory is controversial and not
Winter
The Jet Stream
studies, based only on literature reports of
widely accepted, and most climatologists
volcanic eruptions, "he was missing some
consider him an outsider whose ideas are
Large dust particles block out
events." That is, he had climatic events for
too simplistic.
When temperatures are reduced near the Equator
sunlight but the effect is local
But he is one of the few who forecast
which there were apparently no volcanic
because of decreased sunlight, the two Northern
and brief. The dust soon falls
eruptions. "Now we have much more
continuing drought in California this win-
Hemispheric high-pressure systems become weaker
back to Earth or is washed out
ter and the return of rainfall to the
complete information over the period he is
and are displaced south. This, in turn, affects the path
in the rain.
drought-stricken Sahel Desert in North
looking at. Lo and behold, in most cases
of the jet stream, the thick body of air that flows above
Africa in 1988.
the U.S., carrying storm systems with it. This means
where he was missing events, we now
have one."
"I'm a little skeptical, but I'm not ruling
that after volcanic eruptions, the jet stream-and its
him out," said meteorologist Kenneth
associated storms-will flow farther south.
Handler's correlations are not restricted
Bergman of the National Academy of
PAUL GONZALES/ Angeles Times
to the United States and Europe. He has
Sciences in Washington. "I think it is
also linked volcanoes to El Niños, a
worth [further study]. If he is correct, it
recurring Pacific Ocean phenomenon
has strong implications for climate predic-
whose name-a reference to the Christ
tion."
Child-was coined by Spanish fisherman
"We think of Paul Handler's work as
because the phenomenon typically begins
being rather innovative and interesting,"
said solar physicist Kenneth Schatten of
Climate VS. the Volcano
around Christmas.
El Niño is a huge mass of warmer-than-
the National Aeronautics and Space Ad-
normal water off the coast of Peru extend-
ministration in Greenbelt, Md. "But I think
ing far out into the Pacific. It has previous-
it has yet to be really accepted by the
ly been linked to a variety of weather
scientific community. It's research on the
events around the world, including
forefront of our knowledge, and thus there
drought in the United States and weaker-
than-normal monsoons in the Indian sub-
may be both some good and some bad in it.
continent.
I wouldn't believe everything is 100%
correct
but he has done a lot of
"From 1870 to the present, over 80% of
positive work."
all El Niño events can be shown to have
occurred after the appearance of low-lati-
sure systems adjacent to the continental
passed north of California, leaving a large
Handler has been able to extend his
tude stratospheric aerosols," Handler said.
United States, the California High and the
water deficit.
observations on climate and volcanoes as
Handler came to climatology late in life
"The conventional wisdom is that those 20
Bermuda High, become weaker and are
after 23 years working with microelec-
Handler has shown a strong relationship
far back as AD 550, using data on strato-
or so El Niño events occurring directly
displaced south of their normal positions
tronics. He first became interested in the
between volcanic eruptions and the levels
spheric acidity extracted from ice cores
and farther from land.
after a volcanic eruption were all coinci-
subject in the early 1970s while he was
of Lake Michigan and the Great Salt Lake
drilled in Greenland by several research-
dences. I don't think 80."
The strength and position of these highs
extending from 1819 when lake levels
era. (The approximate location of the
But how does decreased
major
determine
production and began to perceive correla-
the path of the jet stream, the mile-thick,
were first recorded, to the present. His
volcanoes can generally be determined by
ing the Equator induce warming of the
tions between crop production and volca-
60-mile-wide body of air that flows over
correlation shows that levels of the lakes
examining the chemical composition of the
ocean? Handler says that evaporative cool-
noes.
the United States at a height of 10 miles
always rise after volcanic eruptions, begin-
ash and aerosols.) The data suggest some
ing-the_same_phenomenon.by_swhich
In particular, he noted a link between
ning one to two years after the presence of
intriguing possibilities.
and speeds of up to 200 m.p.h., carrying
sweating cools the body-is the dominant
corn production in the American Midwest
storm systems with it. This means that
aerosols. The lag time, he said, is caused by
He noted, for example, a sharp drop in
factor. The decreased sunlight leads to a
and volcanic eruptions in the low latitudes,
the need for rainfall to replenish ground
volcanic activity beginning about AD 850
when volcanic eruptions have introduced
decrease in Equatorial winds. The de-
roughly between 25 degrees south and 25
water reservoirs before excess water be-
and lasting until about AD 1300, which
degrees north.
aerosols into the stratosphere, the jet
creased winds lead to decreased evapora-
gins flowing into the lakes.
resulted in a greater amount of radiation
stream-and its associated storms-will
tive cooling and, hence, to increased water
Whenever an eruption occurred in the
He noted that the highest levels of the
flow farther south over the United States.
striking the Earth's surface and warming
temperatures-El Niño. The El Niño rein-
low latitudes, corn yield in the states of
lakes, historically, occurred after the mas-
the Northern Hemisphere (he hasn't stud-
In the Northern Hemisphere, the effect
forces the changes in the jet stream that
Indiana, Iowa and Illinois was always
sive eruptions of the Indonesian volcano
of the decrease in low-latitude radiation is
ied the Southern Hemisphere). During that
affect U.S. weather.
above average the following year. Con-
Krakatoa in 1883 and El Chichon in 1982.
period, colonization increased dramatically
versely, when no eruption occurred for a
to prolong the spring and fall seasons,
"No one has ever been able to explain
while decreasing the intensity and dura-
in Greenland and Iceland, trees grew
period of time, corn yields plummeted
variations in the lake levels before," he
tion of summer.
profusely and agricultural colonies were
One outspoken critic of Handler is at-
because of drought.
said.
established.
For the summer period, the jet stream
mospheric scientist Clifford F. Mass of the
Handler's reasoning:
will be located in the northern United
Those colonies prospered between AD
University of Washington in Seattle,
Volcanic eruptions spew ash and sulfur
States rather than Canada, which should
1100 and 1250 and the population of
whose views probably represent those of
dioxide into the stratosphere, the upper
bring more rain and cloudiness to the
Greenland reached 80,000, a figure it would
most climatologists.
layer of the Earth's atmosphere. The ash
north-central United States than normal.
not attain again until the 20th Century. But
According to Mass, "The big problem is
can block sunlight dramatically, but it is
In effect, the volcanic aerosols would
when volcanic eruptions became more
that he uses extremely weak eruptions,
washed out by rain in days or weeks. But
common again after AD 1350, the colonies
prolong the higher rainfall of May and
many of which never put significant aero-
the sulfur dioxide is converted to sulfuric
began withering away. "Archeological ex-
June into July and August, which normally
sol into the stratosphere, so they couldn't
acid, which condenses with water to form
are drier.
cavations show that the people got shorter,
have had any climatic impact."
extremely small particles called aerosols.
In the absence of volcanic eruptions, the
and looked sicker," he said. By 1410, the
Mass also argues that the use of data
The aerosols are rained out of the
colonies had either disappeared or lost
opposite occurs. The jet stream moves
from ice cores "gives him a huge number of
stratosphere over a two- to five-year
contact with the outside world.
farther north, and rainfall is reduced in the
events. If he has an El Niño, he can always
period. But while they are present, they
United States.
But the same conditions that benefited
find some kind of event the year before."
absorb a small fraction of the sunlight
Greenland must have wreaked havoc in
Handler notes that "there was very little
In Mass' own research, he looked at only
reaching Earth and prevent it from reach-
the U.S. Midwest and Southwest. The
stratospheric aerosol during the 1930s. The
the largest volcanic. eruptions and found
ing the surface. After the eruption of the
climate there would have become much
stratosphere was just very, very clear, and
"no correlation at all."
Mexican volcano El Chichon in April, 1982,
more arid, making it almost impossible to
for example, the low-latitude solar radia-
that may be a possible explanation of why
For his part, Handler recognizes the
there was a drought then. The same was
raise corn and other food crops, which most
reluctance of climatologists to accept his
tion was reduced by more than 7.7% for
true during the 1950s."
likely led to the disappearance of both the
conclusions. But he has some questions for
many months.
That is the situation Southern California
Kahoki and Mesa Verde tribes. "It got so
them. "Can you explain why the monsoons
When temperatures are reduced near
finds itself in now. The stratosphere is very
dry that there was no human habitation in
University of Illinois
of 1942 to 1949 were above normal? Why
the Equator because of decreased sunlight,
clear, and most of the winter storms that
the plains around 1200," he said.
the two Northern Hemispheric high-pres-
Physicist Paul Handler's theory offers
Lake Michigan and Salt Lake hit peaks in
normally bring rain and snowfall have
From about 1350 to 1750, volcanic activi-
1986? Why the Sahel had rainfall again in
explanation of rainfall patterns.
ty was higher than normal. This activity
1988? My theory can."
Talk given at the University of Chicago, Spring 1990
A Short Review of Global Climate
by
Paul Handler
University of Illinois
1110 W. Green Street
Urbana, Illinois
217-333-3827
Fax 217-333-9819
Volcanoes and Climate
a
200 year-old Mystery
Why is it that approximately two
hundred years after Benjamin
Franklin first published his ideas on
the association of volcanic eruptions
with climate anomalies no one has
been able to clearly demonstrate
their effect on global climate? The
reasons for the failure are manifold.
Researchers fell into a number of
logical fallacies from which they
have never been able to extricate
themselves.
The first fallacy was that volcanoes would
always produce a cooling at the surface by
blocking out solar energy, however
1. Contrary to
expectations, the
cooling effect was
found to be only
2. The small tèmperature changes, as has been
about one-tenth to
shown by A.B. Pittock in a global climate model,
one-hundredth of
arise from a combination of wind and soil moisture
the expected value.
changes which can result in either warming or
cooling at the surface.
stratospheric aerosol
3. Averaging the observed temperature
differences over the earth's surface produces
ambiguous results, because some regions may
heat while others may cool.
warm
cool
warm
cool
warm
The Second Fallacy
Researchers believed that all
volcanoes were alike. Recent
evidence shows that the regional
climate response is very latitude
dependent.
For example, low-latitude volcanoes
seem to produce a set of global
climate anomalies such as the El
Niño.
High-latitude volcanoes seem to
produce the set of global anomalies
associated with the anti-El Niño state.
Thus the average climate effect
resulting from compositing both high-
and low-latitude eruptions could be
close to zero.
It is now understood
that the number of
stratospheric aerosols
was underestimated
The new data from the Greenland,
Antarctica and other ice cores show
that there were many unknown
eruptions which produced significant
aerosols. The large signals in the
ice cores implies that these aerosols
must have induced significant
reductions in solar radiation for
many months.
Most climatologists are unaware of
the existence of these volcanic
aerosols. Therefore they usually
do not attribute the abnormal
climate events of those years to
their volcanic source.
The Eruption of 536 A.D.
from an unknown volcanic source
The densest and most persistent volcanic aerosol in
history was observed during A.D. 536-537 in Europe, the
Middle East and China.
According to one contemporary writer, conditions were
such that "the sun was dark and its darkness lasted for
eighteen months; each day it shone for about four hours,
and still this light was only a feeble shadow."
"The sun seems to have lost its wonted light, and
appears of a bluish color. We marvel to see no shadows
of our bodies at noon,
...
We have had
a spring without mildness and a
summer without heat.
Cold and drought finally succeeded in killing off the
crops in Italy and Mesopotamia and led to a terrible
famine in the immediately following years.
In some regions of China it is estimated that 70-80% of
the population died of starvation in 536 and 537 A.D. (not
quite species extinction).
The El Niño has been shown to
be associated with a worldwide
set of climate anomalies.
Volcanic aerosols are also
distributed worldwide. It can be
shown that the loss of radiation
from volcanic aerosols is most
probably the cause of all the
major El Niño events of the last
120 years.
How do
low-latitude
volcanoes
induce
El Niño events?
How volcanic eruptions affect
the climate
3. As the sulfuric-acid cloud spreads,
it disrupts normal climate patterns by
reflecting sunlight, decreasing the
amount of radiation striking the earth.
Stratosphere
2. Sulfur-dioxide gas
causes long-range
changes: once in the
stable stratosphere, it is
converted to sulfuric-
1. Large dust
acid droplets which can
particles block
Troposphere
~ 6 miles
persist for years.
sunlight but the
volcano
effect is local and
brief: the dust
soon falls back to
earth or is
washed out in
rain.
Reflection of Solar Radiation by a
Low-Latitude Stratospheric Aerosol
The sulfuric-acid cloud resulting from a
low-latitude volcanic eruption rises to the
stratosphere where winds distribute it as a band of
aerosol circling the Earth.
§
0
SUN
Net radiation
decrease
Note: Almost 5/6 of the Solar Radiation Strikes the Earth in
the Tropics and Sub-tropics
El Niño Region in the South
Pacific Ocean
NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN
EQUATOR
EL NIÑO REGION
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN
The 11 Strongest El Niño
Events in the last 120 years
As Listed by Quinn et al.
El Niño
Eruption or Major source of Evidence
1. 1877 Cotopaxi
2. 1884 Krakatau
3. 1891
20% Decrease in Radiation+
4. 1899
Greenland Ice Core Signal*
5. 1911
Taal
6. 1918 Tungurahua
7. 1925 Greenland Ice Core Signal*
8. 1941
Greenland Ice Core Signal*
9. 1957
Greenland Ice Core Signal*
10. 1972 Fuego
11. 1982 El Chichón
*The south Greenland ice core (Lyons et al.) shows that
there was a significant volcanic eruption preceding each of
these events.
tSolar radiation intensity measurements at Montpellier,
France, show a 20% decrease in the direct solar beam for
December 1890 through March 1891 (Kimball, 1924).
The sequence of events in this figure is
an example of the timing between the
volcanic eruptions and the appearance
of the warmer-than-normal water in the
eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
WARMER-THAN-NORMAL WATER
AFTER THE EL CHICHON ERUPTION
2.5
2.0
Degrees Centrigrade
1.5
El Chichón
Warm Water
Eruption
1.0
Nyamuragira
0.5
Eruption
0
Cold Water
-0.5
-1.0
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
YEARS
Nyamuragira produced enough aerosol to initiate a
mid-sized El Niño by itself. The eruption of El
Chichón generated the largest aerosol in 100 years.
Together these aerosols produced one of the largest
El Niño events in the last 100 years.
Evidence from the Greenland Ice Sheet of an
excess sulfate peak which is assumed to be
associated with an unreported volcanic eruption
prior to the 1899 El Niño event. Note that the
signal to noise ratio is very large.
300
250
Transport Time
of Aerosol to
Greenland
Volcanic
200
Signal
Sulfate Conc.
150
100
50
0
1897
1898
1899
1900
1901
El Niño
Most Probable
Event
Time of
Low-Latitude
The source of this eruption is
Eruption was
still uncertain. Note that the
Mid 1898
peak height is 4 times the rms
background.
Global Climate
Simulations
All Predict That
Decreased Radiation
Decreased Monsoon Precipitation
Types of Global Climate Simulations:
1. Changes in Solar Radiation
2. CO2 Studies
3. Nuclear Winter Studies
4. Milankovitch Studies
5. Snow Cover Studies
The Monsoon is an integral part of the El
Niño/Southern Oscillation as shown by
Meehl (1987).
This shows the deviation of the
Indian Monsoon
Indian Monsoon rainfall from
average and the names of both
Deviations from the 120 Mean
low (left) and high latitude
volcanoes.
for the years 1942-1984
The models all predict that the
Indian Monsoon will be below
normal after the eruption of a
low-latitude volcano.
Low Latitude
High Latitude
Aerosols
Aerosols
1942
Note that the years 1942-1949
1943
1944
are all above normal and there
1945
Kliuchevskoi
1946
are no reported low-latitude
1947
Sarychev, Helka
eruptions.
1948
1949
1950
Note that in 1951-52 after the
1951
Lamington
1952
Ambrym, Bagana
three eruptions the monsoon is
1953
Mt. Spurr
1954
below average.
1955
Nilahue
1956
Bezymianny
1957
Then there is a ten year period
1958
of no low-latitude aerosols and
1959
1960
no poor monsoons. The next
1961
1962
poor monsoon occurs directly
1963
Agung
1964
after the eruption of Agung in
Sheveluch
1965
1963.
1966
Taal, Kelut
1967
Awu, Lengai
1968
Fernandina
Note the increased frequency
1969
Fernandina
1970
of low-latitude eruptions after
1971
1963 and the increased
1972
Fuego
1973
frequency of below average
1974
1975
Fuego
Unknown?
monsoon rainfall.
1976
1977
1978
The conventional wisdom
1979
Soufriere
1980
Sierra Negra
Pagan & Ulawun
Mt. St. Helens
claims all this happened by
1981
Nyamuragira
Alaid
1982
El Chichon
}
chance.
1983
Una Una
1984
-3
0
3
The drought in the Sahel also
Standard Deviation Units
began in the late '60's, when
the frequency of low-latitude
eruptions increased.
CRITERIA FOR A CLIMATE MODEL
1. EXPLAIN THE PAST
2. EXPLAIN THE PRESENT
3. PREDICT THE FUTURE
4. OBEY THE LAWS OF PHYSICS
The Physical Mechanism for the Simultaneous
Generation of El Niño and the Poor Indian Monsoon
A. Global Sea Level Pressure Distribution in mb (January)
High
H
1028
H
1020
1020
1014
L
1008
H
L
7
1020
H
H
1009
1017
1020
B.
Global Sea Level Distribution in mb (July)
Low
H
H
1004
1026
1026
L
1008
H
1014
1026
1017
H
g
H
1023
1026
Figure A shows the Sea Level Pressure in January. Figure B shows the
Sea Level Pressure in July. Note that the Sea Level Pressure of both
Northern and Southern Hemisphere anticyclones increases by about 6
mb over the period of time from January to July. This air mass shift is
related to the greater land area in the Northern Hemisphere.
Conservation of airmass requires that air be transferred from the
Northern Hemisphere land masses to the oceanic anticyclones as the
sun moves to the Northern Hemisphere in July.
Change of Sea Level Pressure for Conditions of Decreased
Incoming Solar Radiation in Tropical and SubTropical Regions
increase
decrease
in SLP
decrease
in SLP
in SLP
increase
in SLP
increase
in SLP
EQ
increase
Pacific Ocean
in SLP
decrease
increase
in SLP
in SLP
decrease
in SLP
decrease
in SLP
South Indian Ocean
A decrease of radiation caused by a stratospheric aerosol over the low-latitudes
including the Eurasian low decreases the amount of air mass transferred to the
anticyclones. Therefore, the pressure gradient between the center of the high
pressures of the oceanic anticyclones and the ITCZ is reduced. Accordingly, the
winds along the equator are reduced by a few meters/second. Reduced winds
are usually the first sign of the El Niño; they allow warmer than normal sea
surface temperatures to form. The major anticyclones affecting the El Niño region
are the North and South Pacific high pressure centers as indicated by the wind
arrows.
The poor Indian Monsoon results from the decreased gradient of pressure
between the weakened Southern Indian Ocean anticyclone and the higher than
normal pressure over the Eurasian land mass. Drought in East Africa is also likely
when this wind system is weaker than normal.
If the hypothesis is correct it should be
able to explain climate change in other
parts of the world besides the
El Niño region and the monsoon
regions of the world.
In the next few pages, the variation
of the water level of Lake Michigan is
used as an example of the
explanatory power of the volcanic
hypothesis.
The Mystery of the
High Water Levels
of
Lake Michigan
A Possible Solution
Michigan Lake Level
1860-1988
582
www.n
Old record high
581
580
Feet (msl)
579
578
Krakatau erupts
577
576
575
1860 1865 1870 1875 1880 1885 1890 1895 1900 1905 1910
582
581
580
Feet (msl)
579
578
WMW
577
576
575
1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960
582
Record high
581
580
Feet (msl)
579
578
577
El Chichon
erupts
576
575
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Years
This graph show the water level of Lake
Michigan from 1860 to the present. Two
record heights are indicated during this
period.
Note that the TWO record high water
levels occur just a few years after the
TWO biggest volcanic eruptions of the
last 120 years, those of Krakatau and El
Chichon.
If this were a cause and effect relation-
ship, then the other peaks in the record
should be related to low-latitude volcanic
eruptions as well.
The next page shows that most of the
major increases in lake level over the last
100 years followed the eruptions of low-
latitude volcanoes as in the case of the
two indicated record heights.
There is at present no alternative
explanation for the observed variation in
lake level.
Years
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
575
576
errorts
El Chichon
577
878
579
Feet (msl)
Record high
volcanoes erupt
Agung and other
080
581
582
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
575
mm
576
ST77
878
579
Feet (msl)
089
erupt
erupt
5811
Three volcanoes
Two volcanoes
582
1990
1905
1900
1995
1890
1885
1881
1875
1187
1865
1860
575
576
5777
Krakatau erupts
578
mm
579
Feet (msl)
5800
581
Old record high
582
1860-1988
Michigan Lake Level
The volcanic aerosol, composed
mainly of acid, is transported
through the stratophere to
Greenland where it is deposited
in the snow.
Greenland
Low-Latitude
Volcanic Eruption*
*Not to scale
A record of the acidity in the Greenland
ice core is shown in relation to the lake
level in the next figure.
Comparison of 10 Year Moving Average of Lake
Michigan and Great Salt Lake Water Levels with the
Greenland Ice Core Acidity of the Last 120 Years
582
Lake Michigan
feet msl
580
578
576
4212
4207
Great Salt Lake
4202
feet msl
4197
190
4292
Greenland Icecore
150
acidity
110
70
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
NOTE: 1. When Greenland Ice Core Acidity was high (1870-1900),
the Lake Water Levels were high.
2. When Greenland Ice Core Acidity was low (after 1920),
the Lake Levels were low.
3. After 1963 the increase in volcanic activity was followed by
rising Lake Levels.
The Volcanic Record
From
Greenland Ice Cores
550 A.D.
to
1972 A.D.
The opposite page shows the volcanic acidity in the
Greenland ice core as measured by Hammer et al.
(1980). The data run from 550-1972. The very large
spikes are Icelandic eruptions which because of their
closeness to Greenland give very large signals.
Note the drop in acidity right after 850 A.D. which on
the average persists until about 1250 A.D. The
decrease in volcanic activity, which is associated with
the drop in acidity, resulted in a greater amount of
solar radiation striking the earth's surface over this
400 year period of time. The persistent increase in
radiation induced a warming of the climate. Trees
grew in Greenland and there were many agricultural
colonies established. The Iceland and Greenland
colonies prospered between 1100 and 1250 A.D.
Iceland's population reached a maximum at that time,
a level not exceeded until the 20th century. The
increase in volcanic activity after 1300 A.D. cooled
global temperatures sufficiently so that the Greenland
colonies began to suffer the effects. By 1410 A.D. the
colonies had either disappeared or lost contact with
the outside world.
The dramatic increase in volcanic activity after 1300
A.D. is believed to have brought on the Little Ice Age,
a period when glacier growth increased dramatically
in the Alps and the rest of the world lasting until about
1850 A.D.
In the next transparency I will show a smoothed
record taken from a second ice core so that you can
see in detail what was happening during the past
century.
Measure of Acidity in the
Greenland Ice Sheet as Taken by
Hammer et al. 1980
AGUNG
1950
HEKLA
1450
950
ELDGJA
11.4
KATMAI
1900
1400
900
KRAKATOA
1850
1350
850
TAMBORA
1800
1300
800
LAKI
UNKNOWN
KATLA
1750
1250
750
LANZAROTE
1700
1200
700
KATLA
PACAY a.o.
1650
1150
650
KOMAGATAKE
UNKNOWN
HEKLA
1600
1100
600
1550
1050
550
AD
A.D.
AD
ACIDITY
1500
1000
0
2
4
6
0
2
4
6
0
2
4 wequiv.H/kg
The End of the Little Ice Age
This figure shows the 25 year moving average of the solid
conductivity of the central Greenland ice core for the last 600
years. The height of the signal is related to the amount of
volcanic aerosol deposited from the stratosphere. Thus during
the Little Ice Age the amount of solar radiation reaching the
surface was less than at present.
45
Conductivity
Acidity
Volcanic Activity
Reduced
Radiation
40
ECM (25 Year Moving Average)
35
Increased
Radiation
implies Global
30
Warming
25
20
Reduced Solar
Radiation:
"Little Ice Age"
15
End of Little
Ice Age
10
1950
1850
1750
1650
1550
1450
Y E A R
The Little Ice Age is assumed to have ended about 1850 as
indicated in figure. Since that time the acidity level has fallen by
at least a factor of two. The amount of solar radiation reaching
the surface has increased and thus may be the cause of the
global warming of the past 150 years.
Data provided by K. Taylor of the University of Nevada, Reno
Since there have been no significant
new volcanic eruptions during the past
five years, the stratosphere is very clear
and more radiation is striking the earth.
Climate events which have resulted from
the increased radiation are:
The excellent rains in the Sahel since 1988
The above average monsoon rainfall in India since
1988
The above average rainfall in Australia since 1988
The good rains in most of Africa since 1988
The position and strength of the California High since
late 1987
The absence of any new El Niño events in 1988, 1989,
and 1990
The rapid decrease in the level of Lake Michigan since
1986
The explanatory power of this hypothesis should
be compared with all other alternative models.
08-27-90 09:46PM DOJ ENVIRN DEF
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Department of Justice, Environment & Natural Resources Division
Date:
From:
Dick Stewart
Jonathan Wiener
Tel. 514-2701, fax 514-0557
Tel. 514-2744
To:
Climate Approaches Task Force Distribution
CEA: Dick Schmalensee 395-5036 (fax 395-6947)
CEA: Howard Gruenspecht 395-6982 (fax 395-6947)
CEES: Paul Dresler 703-648-4450 (fax 648-5470)
CEQ: John Cohrssen 395-5750 (fax 395-3744)
DOC/ITA: Helen Runnels 377-5853 (fax 377 5444)
DOC/NOAA: John Knauss 377-3436 (fax 377-8203)
DOC/NOAA: J.R. Spradley 377-2151 (fax 377-8203)
DOC/NOAA: Sally Kane 377-2378 (fax 377-8702)
DOE: Mark Kerrigan 586-4159 (fax 586-5313)
DOE: Ted Williams 586-2061 (fax 586-2062)
DOE: Rick Bradley 586-4759 (fax 586-2062)
DOE: Len Coburn 586-5740 (fax 586-2062)
DOI: Indur Goklany 208-4951 (fax 208-4867)
DOI: Malka Pattison 208-4952 (fax 208-4867)
EPA: Dick Morgenstern 382-4034 (fax 252-0780)
EPA: Jack Fitzgerald 382-4034 (fax 252-0780)
EPA: Dennis Tirpak 475-8825 (fax 252-0780)
EPA: Alex Cristofaro 382-5490 (fax 382-5605)
EPA: Alan Hecht 382-4870 (fax 382-4470)
EPA: Pat Koshel 382-4880 (fax 382-4470)
EPA: Edith Brown Weiss 382-4550 (fax 3252-0020)
NASA: Bob Watson 453-1681 (fax 755-2552)
NSF: Fred Bernthal 357-9427 (fax 357-9725)
NSF: Beverly Fleisher 357-9427 (fax 357-9725)
NSF: Bob Correll 357-9715 (fax 357-9629)
NSF: Roberta Miller 357-7966 (fax 357-0357)
OCA: Barry McBee 456-2800 (fax 456-2223)
OMB: Bob Grady 395-4844 (fax 395-6899)
OMB: Norm Hartness 395-6840 (fax 395-6899)
OPD: Theresa Gorman 456-6554 (fax 456-7739)
OPD: Ed Goldstein 456-2481 (fax 456-7739)
OSTP: Nancy Maynard 456-6202 (fax 395-3261)
State: Bob Reinstein 647-2232 (fax 647-5947)
State: Dan Reifsnyder 647-4069 (fax 647-5947)
State: Sue Biniaz 647-2282 (fax 647-1037)
Treasury: Mike Springer 343-0275 (fax 786-8452)
Treasury: Ray Squitieri 566-6918 (fax 786-8452)
USDA: Gary Evans 447-5979 (fax 755-7842)
USDA: John Reilly 786-1450 (fax 786-1477)
USTR: Pep Fuller 395-4946 (fax 395-3911)
WHC: Jeff Holmstead 456-7803 (fax 456-7929)
No. of pages:
(incl. this cover sheet)
/"climate.tf.distrib" .2 8/21/90/
08-27-90 09:47PM DOJ ENVIRN DEF
P02/12
U.S. Department of Justice
Environment and Natural Resources Division
Office of the Assistant Attorney General
Washington, D.C. 205.30
August 24, 1990
MEMORANDUM
TO:
Members of the Task Force on Climate Approaches
FROM:
Dick Stewart
Assistant Attorney General
SUBJECT: Draft Outline of Research and Analysis to Support the
Comprehensive and Incentives Approaches
As promised, attached is a draft outline for the
global change. Please review it and make any comments; we would
interim report the Task Force will present to the DPC subgroup on
appreciate your thoughts on whether any relevant items or
September 6, 1990, by fax at 514-0557. We would especially
very much appreciate receiving your comments by COB Thursday,
priorities for the tasks identified.
information have been omitted, and on suggested relative
We will then prepare a more complete draft of the
report, which will be reviewed at a meeting of the Task Force at
Justice, Room 2603.
10:00 a.m. on Thursday, September 13, at the Department of
08-27-90 09:47PM DOJ ENVIRN DEF
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Task Force on climate Approaches
Outline of September 1990 Interim Report:
Research and Analysis to support the
Comprehensive and Incentives Approaches
Comprehensive Approach
I.
Measuring concentrations and Monitoring Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas (GHG)
Measuring and monitoring current and future levels,
distributions, dynamics
-- Current Administration efforts:
- CEES agencies, e.g. NASA, NOAA
-- Future work: ensure coverage of all gases
II. Comparative Indices of Impacts of GHGs
-- Current Administration efforts:
-- Considerable work has been donc on the relative
radiative forcing of many GHGs. Scientific
uncertainties in the current estimates remain, chiefly
surrounding the residence time of CO2, and atmospheric
chemical reactions of other gases such as 03
NOAA, NSF, EPA, DOE
precursors. Work has been done by IPCC WG I, NASA,
-- Future work:
-- harmonizing various approaches
-- indirect effects attributable to various gases'
atmospheric reactions
-- residence times of GHGs: carbon cycle,
hydroxyl dynamics
-- saturation effects; relation to concentrations of
same gas and other gases
-- discount rates/time horizons
-- designing a "full impacts" index: incorporating into
the index all the environmental externalities, in
addition to radiative forcing (the endpoint currently
measured in the indox), that are associated with GHGs,
08-27-90 09:48PM DOJ ENVIRN DEF
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- 2 -
in order to ensure that proper incentives are provided
to manage GHGs for the optimal environmental outcome.
This would include incorporating the very salient non-
warming impacts of GHGs: direct effects of CO2 on
vegetation, toxicity of CO and other gases to
organisms, and ozone depletion impacts associated with
halocarbons. Address technical and analytic issues in
a "full impacts" index.
-- institutional mcchanisms for adopting a consensus
index and adjusting it to new research results
III. Measuring and Monitoring net GHG emissions
(A) Measuring actual net GHG emissions
-- Current Administration efforts:
- numerous agencies collect and analyze data on
various industries. gases, sources, sinks, sectors, and
- data are generally adequate on US and other
industrialized nations' emissions of GHGs from
fossil fuel combustion (generally measured by data
on fuel inputs and knowledge of typical combustion
techniques), and on world emissions of halocarbons
-- Future work:
- develop practical techniques of measuring net
GHG emissions, including direct observation;
remote sensing; proxies or surrogates, such as
fuel or fertilizer input data coupled with assumed
output rates (e.g. combustion or cultivation
techniques), or acreage or livestock data coupled
with assumed output rates; economic simulations;
and so forth. Ensure that measurement assumptions
do not distort policy responses.
- expand monitoring capacity and data to cover all
gases, sources, and sinks: data are especially
needed on non-point sources of CH4 and N20, e.g.
agriculture, livestock; hydroxyl dynamics and
atmospheric chemical reactions yielding
tropospheric 03; non-point sources and sinks of
CO2, including oceanic biota, terrestrial biota,
long-term sequestration, plant lifecycles,
grasses, soils, and trees, extent and effects of
deforestation, and sink behavior.
nations. - expand monitoring capacity and data to cover all
- ensure that future data presentations are
comprehensive, e.g. avoid CO2-only or fossil
fuels-only charts in IPCC, NES, and other reports
except as adjuncts to complete GHG presentation.
08-27-90 09:48PM DOJ ENVIRN DEF
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- 3 -
(B) Assembling inventories of net GHG emissions by country
-- Current Administration efforts:¹
- EPA analysis of CO2, CH4, CFCs, HCFCs, N20, CO,
NOX, NMHCs; includes US and other nations
- DOE/NES analysis of co2, CH4 from energy sector;
includes US only
-- Future work:
- identify assumptions and modeling underlying
existing inventories
- improve accounting of all nations, yases,
sources and sinks, as described under (A)
Measuring, above
- develop production and consumption
disaggregations, e.g. by sector
- develop models correlating net GHG emissions to
socioeconomic and demographic variables, e.g.
growth rate of per capita GNP
(C) Forecasting and monitoring net emissions in the future
This task is needed to (i) better forecast future
emissions to predict future concentrations, and to
validate economic forecasting models with empirical
data, and (ii) verify nations' compliance with
agreements or adherence to claims of national policy.
Future work is needed on:
-- developing technologies and capabilities described
under (A) Measuring actual net GHG emissions," above
arrangements: -- assessment of institutional options for monitoring
-- arrangements for monitoring and reporting and
their relation to sovereignty concerns, e.g.
voluntary or mandatory national reporting;
"national technical means" of observation of other
nations' activities; remote sensing; atmospheric
observations; international oversight bodies (e.g.
UNEP inspections investigators) ; permission for on-site
-- economic modeling as forecasting tool and as
check against reported quantities
1 Efforts outside the government include: OECD project
UNEP/UNDP) on on CO2, CH4, CFCs, all nations; Harvard Kennedy School
all gases, solicited from member stales; WRI (in conjunction on with
CO2 and CFCs, many nations.
08-27-90 09:49PM DOJ ENVIRN DEF
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-- bilateral trade partner review under emissions
trading
-- institutional incentives to encourage
development and application of monitoring &
reporting, such as assuring credit for net GHG
limitation actions (e.g. "no regrets" actions)
upon a showing by the emitter of successful
monitoring practices
-- verification procedures
-- rules; burden of proof
-- forum (international or bilateral,
political or scientific adjudicators, etc.)
IV. Evaluating the comparative cost-effectiveness of piecemeal,
partial, and comprehensive approaches.
Advocacy of the comprehensive approach is based in part
on the intuitively strong hypothesis that the marginal costs
of control vary across gases, sources, sinks, and nations,
so that for any assumed limitation obligation, 2 each
nation's least-cost mix of limitation strategies would be
different and all nations, regardless of their current GHG
inventories, would be better off under a comprehensive
approach than under an approach which placed separate
limitation obligations on each gas or sector.
3
(A) Extent and costs of net GHG limitations achieved by "no
regrets" framework. policy options within a comprehensive
2 Thus, given an assumed objective, the task is to assess
the comparative costs of achieving it under different policy
designs. This task does not assess the overall rationality or
economic efficiency of the chosen objective. Nor does it
question whether each policy design would achieve the objective;
that topic is addressed in Part V, below, on the environmental
effectiveness of different approaches.
3 The aggregate shares calculated in the inventories (in
Part III (B), above) do not indicate the costs of incremental
limitations for each nation. Simply because a nation currently
has a large share in methane, for example, does not mean that
that nation would find methane reductions costlier than CO2
reductions, at the margin. Economic analysis is needed to test
the hypothesis of varying costs and to demonstrate the benefits
to every nation of being afforded the cross-gas, cross-sector,
and source-sink flexibility of the comprehensive approach.
08-27-90 09:49PM DOJ ENVIRN DEF
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"No regrets" actions are actions taken for other
(non-climate) reasons but which influence net GHG
emissions. One may calculate the percent limitations
or reductions achieved by these policy actions using
the comprehensive approach, and also calculate the cost
per policy action. This is a first step toward
assessing the marginal costs of GHG avoidance from
different gas/source/sink policy options and hence
toward assessing the relative cost-effectiveness of the
comprehensive versus piecemeal approaches.
-- Current Administration efforts:
-- EPA analysis of US policies
-- DOE/NES analysis of US energy policies
-- Future work:
-- expand to carry out similar analyses for other
nations' options under international (e.g.
Montreal Protocol, forestry agreement) and
national (other "no regrets") actions
-- expand to cover influence of agricultural
subsidies
-- model full marginal cost functions (see below)
(B) Information and analyses needed to map full comparative
cost-cffectiveness functions and variations by gas,
source, sink, sector, nation. This task is to move
beyond analyses of specific existing policy programs
and to evaluate the full marginal cost functions facing
policy makers and private actors.
-- Current Administration offorts:
-- DOE/NES analysis for US energy sector policies
and afforestation
-- Future work:
-- expand to cover all gases, sources, sinks,
sectors
-- expand to cover other nations
-- assess full social costs, using general
equilibrium model rather than expenditures by the
regulated industry.4 Make use of forthcoming
second Generation GHG Emissions model (J. Edmonds
4 The comparative impacts on macroeconomic and international
variables (e.g. trade, compctitiveness, economic growth) would
require separate study.
08-27-90 09: 50PM DOJ ENVIRN DEF
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- 6 -
developing for DOE). Analyze costs over time,
relation to innovation.5
-- include (qualitative) evaluation of non-
economic costs to response options, e.g. cultural
or institutional barriers to certain policies
(C) Use cost-effectiveness analyses to evaluating costs and
benefits to the US and other nations of possible
piecemeal, partial and comprehensive options that will
be suggested for international policy design; e.g.
policies addressing: CO2 only, all CHGs, or all GHGs
except those covered under the Montreal Protocol;
sources only, point sources only, all sources and
sinks, or sources and terrestrial sinks only; all
sectors, or certain sectors (e.g. energy, industry,
transport, agriculture, forestry).
V.
Evaluating approach. environmental benefits of the comprehensive
(A) Cross-factor shifts
Advocacy of the comprehensive approach is based in part
on the intuitively strong hypothesis that including all
gases, sources and sinks ensures better effectiveness in any
effort to limit contributions to potential radiative
forcing, in particular because piecemeal rules applying to
one gas, source (or sector), or sink will engender shifts of
undercutting achievement of policy goals.
socioeconomic activity from regulated to unregulated modes,
-- Current Administration efforts:
-- DOE/NES study will address CO2 and CH4 emissions
from energy sector; should consider potential tradeoffs
-- Future work:
-- conduct case studies of cross-gas shifts: e.g.
fossil fuel switching (coal to gas) induced by CO2-only
policies, and impacts on CO2-to-CH4 emissions shifts
due to CH4 leakage⁶
-- expand cross-gas shift studies, e.g. apply coal-to-
gas CO2-CH4 shift analysis to actual global GHG output
in the US and worldwide of potential future changes in the
5 Evaluation should also address the likely economic impacts
understanding of the gas-comparison index, and means to cushion
adverse impacts (e.g. periodic public science reviews).
6 Such studies are being conducted, e.g. by Rodhe (1990).
08-27-90 09:50PM DOJ ENVIRN DEF
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and in light of likely GHG emissions/leaks from future
coal and gas facilities
-- evaluate other cross-gas shifts, e.g. CH4 to N20 in
agriculture under a CH4-only policy
-- evaluate cross-source/sector shifts: e.g. under a
transport-only policy, possible shift from fossil fuel
combustion on board vehicles to electric cars powered
by central utility combustion, or to use of intensely
cultivated biomass fuels; e.g. under an energy-only or
fossil fuel-only policy, possible shift to biomass
fuels whose cultivation emits other GIIGs
-- evaluate side benefits of encouraging sink
management expansion: e.g. soil erosion, biodiversity, timber
(B) Incorporating all environmental externalities into a
"full impacts" comparative index
Current comparative indices focus on relative radiative
forcing, or the potential of trace gases to contribute to
atmospheric warming. Several of the GHGs have important
non-warming impacts on the environment which are not
reflected in the index; consequently use of an index limited
to radiative forcing would provide distorted incentives that
yield potentially undesirable results. in order to
internalize these non-warming externalities, the index
should be broadened to incorporate at least the salient
global impacts: direct effects of CO2 on plant productivity
and water use efficiency; ozone depletion from halocarbons;
and toxicity of other gases. Technical and analytic will
arise in the effort to compare these multiple impacts on
commensurate spectra.
-- Current Administration efforts:
-- conceptual thinking about the design of a "full
impacts" index
-- Future work:
-- index attempts to construct a quantified "full impacts"
VI. Addressing the objection thast the comprehensive approach is
infeasible because of "inadequate science and monitoring."
Future work:
-- assess the time and expense needed to answer scientific
questions, develop proxy measurement devices, and build
monitoring approach capabilities to achieve a workable comprehensive
08-2.7-90 09:51PM DOJ ENVIRN DEF
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-- compare the costs of acquiring this needed information to
the socioeconomic and environmental costs (and foregone
benefits) of adopting a piecemeal policy design for want of
such information
-- develop policy and institutional designs that offer
incentives for needed research (e.g., an agreement could
offer opportunities to emitters to carn credit for
limitation actions upon demonstration of accomplishment,
thus giving emitters incentives to undertake the research
needed to develop new monitoring capabilities)
-- consider intermediate approaches such as incremental or
phased-in designs toward comprehensivity
VII. Integrating prior and concurrent law and policies into a
comprehensive approach.
-- Current Administration efforts:
-- devising means to ensure that international
agreement integrates (gives credit for) "no regrets"
actions, other international agreements (forestry,
VOCs, GHGs covered by ozone agreements), other domestic
laws and initiatives
-- Future work:
-- demonstrate incentive advantages of integration
-- lack of integration would yield disincentives
to take actions, even "no regrets" actions
and "verification, above)
-- address possible overclaiming (see "monitoring"
-- demonstrate advantages for other nations under
integrated design
-- demonstrate environmental advantages of integration
-- address issues of legal grafting presented by terms
or design of other agreements, laws
-- consider possible offset model (e.g. defining any
limitation obligations in terms of CO2 emissions, to
satisfy those eager for CO2 limits, but authorize
offsets for any verifiable limits on any GHG, source,
approach) or sink, thus effectively constructing a comprehensive
08-27-90 09:51PM DOJ ENVIRN DEF
P11/12
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Incontives and Market-based Approaches:
Emissions trading, fees, and related economic instruments
I.
Emissions trading
(A) Domestic trading
-- Current Administration efforts:
-- review of past and current experience, e.g.
lead phasedown, netting/bubble/offset program,
CFCs trading, new acid precipitation trading
scheme. Primarily EPA, DOE, CEA.
-- consider application to GHGs; consider issues
of implementation, e.q. informal versus formal
trading; who would trade; duration of allowances;
means of distributing allowances: market power;
hoarding; scope of GHGs, sectors, sources and
sinks; monitoring trades; etc.
-- Future work:
-- model relative cost savings under trading
(B) International trading
-- Current Administration efforts:
-- present US experience and suggestions at
international discussion on application to climate
-- Future work:
-- extend analysis of above issues to
international context, e.g. informal versus formal
trading; who would trade: duration of allowances;
means of distributing allowances; market power;
hoarding; scope of trading among GHGs, sources,
sinks, sectors, industries, geographical areas,
stages of development; monitoring trades
-- in addition, consider international
institutions; trade and aid implications:
sovereignty issues; trading as a decentralized,
transfors market-based vehicle for resource and technology
-- identify opportunities for cross-national
7 In addition, consider the options for trading within
and regional associations such as OECD, EC, ASEAN. Evidently the EC
OECD are both considering association-wide policies.
08-27-90 09:52PM DOJ ENVIRN DEF
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- 10 -
US and worldwide)
trades, and hence likely trading partners (for the
-- model relative cost savings under trading
II. Economic instruments in general
Workshop in December8
Ministerial in January and Economic Instruments
-- pursue contact with OECD regarding Environment
December 1990, will involve considerations of forum
8 Preparing for the OECD Workshop on Economic Instruments,
meetings, cosponsorship, logistics and timing, relation to other and
December workshop. Plenary in August, and US presentation publicity (s) at at the the
sundsvall address, IPCC a September experts meeting, invitees,
topics to relation to other international meetings, OECD
Withdrawal/Redaction Sheet
(George Bush Library)
Document No.
Subject/Title of Document
Date
Restriction
Class.
and Type
01. Memorandum
To: Boyden Gray From: Dick Stewart
8/7/90
(b)(1)
Re: recent Developments regarding the Comprehensive
Approach to Potential Climate Policy (7 pp.)
Collection:
Record Group:
Bush Presidential Records
Office:
Policy Development, White House Office of
Series:
Gorman, Teresa, Files
Subseries:
WHORM Cat.:
File Location:
Bromley Global Change Group [1]
Date Closed:
2/2/2010
OA/ID Number:
07668-005
FOIA/SYS Case #:
2005-0336-F
Appeal Case #:
Re-review Case #:
Appeal Disposition:
P-2/P-5 Review Case #:
Disposition Date:
AR Case #:
MR Case #:
AR Disposition:
MR Disposition:
AR Disposition Date:
MR Disposition Date:
RESTRICTION CODES
Presidential Records Act - [44 U.S.C. 2204(a)]
Freedom of Information Act - [5 U.S.C. 552(b)]
P-1 National Security Classified Information [(a)(1) of the PRA]
(b)(1) National security classified information [(b)(1) of the FOIA]
P-2 Relating to the appointment to Federal office [(a)(2) of the PRA]
(b)(2) Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of an
P-3 Release would violate a Federal statute [(a)(3) of the PRA]
agency [(b)(2) of the FOIA]
P-4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or
(b)(3) Release would violate a Federal statute [(b)(3) of the FOIA]
financial information [(a)(4) of the PRA]
(b)(4) Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial
P-5 Release would disclose confidential advice between the President
information [(b)(4) of the FOIA]
and his advisors, or between such advisors [a)(5) of the PRA]
(b)(6) Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of
P-6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of
personal privacy [(b)(6) of the FOIA]
personal privacy [(a)(6) of the PRA]
(b)(7) Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement
purposes [(b)(7) of the FOIA]
C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed of
(b)(8) Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of
gift.
financial institutions [(b)(8) of the FOIA]
(b)(9) Release would disclose geological or geophysical information
PRM. Removed as a personal record misfile.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
September 20, 1990
MEMORANDUM FOR MEMBERS OF GLOBAL CHANGE STRATEGY TASK FORCE
FROM:
D. ALLAN BROMLEY Auar
SUBJECT:
Article on Comprehensive Approach
Dick Stewart and Jonathan Wiener at Justice have been asked by
the American Enterprise Institute to submit an article on the
comprehensive, market-based approach to dealing with global
climate change. The draft of their article is attached. Given
the high level of attention that will undoubtedly be bestowed on
the article, moving this issue more into the forefront of public
debate than perhaps had previously been the case, review of the
article by the members of the task force seems appropriate.
Please provide any comments you may have on the article by the
close of business on Monday, September 24 to Jonathan Wiener at
514-2701, with copies to Nancy Maynard of my staff.
6661
4007
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DRAFT, 9/19/90
Please do not cite
quote or distribute
Policy Design for Climate Change:
Comprehensive and Market-Based Approaches
Richard B. Stewart and Jonathan B. Wiener1
The world community is moving toward a framework
convention on climate change: the first negotiating session will
be hosted by the United States in February 1990. What should be
the approach of any international agreement on climate change?
Many have called for immediate controls on greenhouse gas
emissions. The discussion to date has been dominated by
proposals to restrict carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, especially
from sources in the energy sector of the economy. Proposals have
tended to focus on rigid reduction targets with strict
timetables, imposed internationally, to be met uniformly by all
nations, and on technology-based standards such as "best
available control technology."
Following these suggestions would amount to reinventing
the square wheel. They rely on clumsy, outworn environmental
policy designs -- piecemeal, command-and-control, technology-
based, centrally administered, inflexible approaches that ignore
relevant costs and benefits. These proposals concentrate
myopically on what is deemed currently "understood" or
"achievable." They fail to use incentives that will advance
long-run economic and environmental goals. They hobble
innovation and investment. Their piecemeal character is self-
defeating, undercutting environmental progress by inducing shifts
in economic activities from regulated sectors to other,
unregulated sectors.
Issues for policy
Potential climate change is an issue of enormous
complexity. The "greenhouse gases" -- CO2, methane, nitrous
oxide, tropospheric ozone, halocarbons like chlorofluorocarbons
(CFCs), and others -- are numerous and are emitted by myriad
1The authors are, respectively, Assistant Attorney General
and Special Assistant to the Assistant Attorney General,
Environment and Natural Resources Division, U.S. Department of
Justice. The views expressed are their own and do not
necessarily represent the views of the Department of Justice or
the United States.
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different sources. Each greenhouse gas ("GHG") has a different
capacity to trap heat in the atmosphere, called its "relative
radiative forcing." Each also has other direct (chemical)
effects on the atmosphere and on plant and animal life; for
example, CO2 enhances plant photosynthesis and water use
efficiency, while CFCs deplete the stratospheric ozone layer.
One GHG or another is emitted or affected by virtually every
ecological and socioeconomic activity in every sector of every
nation. Several of the gases are removed from the atmosphere by
"sinks"; for example, CO2 is removed in the photosynthesis
carried on by trees, crops, grasses, and oceanic phytoplankton,
and stored in plant material, soils, and the deep ocean. Any
change in average annual global temperature would be a product of
complex interactions and feedbacks among the composition of the
atmosphere, cloud formation, ocean circulation, terrestrial sinks
of GHGs, albedo (reflectivity), and other phenomena, and would in
turn affect patterns of local temperature, precipitation, sea
level, soil moisture.
The debate over policy approaches to potential climate
change presents at least four basic kinds of issues:
1. To what extent and when will climate change occur?
The recent First Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) collects the best evidence scientists
have on this question. While it finds that anthropogenic
increases in GHGs are likely to yield increases in atmospheric
temperature, it concludes that major uncertainties frustrate our
ability to forecast the magnitude, timing, or regional patterns
of any climate change.
2. What are the costs and benefits of climate change,
and of measures to limit or adapt to it? In light of these costs
and benefits, what actions, if any, are warranted now? Scant
analysis has explored these questions. Information on the
impacts of potential climate change -- and on the costs of
response measures -- is difficult to develop. A key issue on
which not enough is known is finding the appropriate combination
of preventive measures, to limit GHG emissions or expand GHG
sinks, and adaptive measures, to anticipate and minimize adverse
effects of climate change. Meanwhile, the United States is
taking actions that make sense in their own right (for other
environmental or economic reasons) but that also reduce GHG
emissions or preserve or expand sinks. Examples include phasing
out CFCs by 2000; the President's initiative to plant a billion
trees annually; and the conservation incentives in the acid rain
provisions of the proposed Clean Air Act.
3. If limitation efforts are warranted -- whether
through actions that make sense in their own right, development
of new low-emitting technologies and practices, or otherwise --
should they be confined to CO2 emissions and limited to
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particular sectors, such as energy, or should they address all
GHGs, sources and sinks?
4. Should any domestic or international limitation
measures employ traditional command-and-control regulations, or
make use of market-based economic incentive tools?
This article focuses on the third and fourth issues
identified above. It argues that a piecemeal, gas-by-gas,
source-by-source, command-and-control approach is both
ecologically unsound and economically imprudent. If limitations
investments or measures are to be implemented -- a big "if" that
can only be decided based on a more extended look at scientific
uncertainties and at costs and benefits of action and inaction --
then they should take a "comprehensive" approach and use market-
based economic incentives. We are addressing not "how much"
action to take, if any, but "how to" implement any decision to
limit GHGs.
Better approaches
Experience has shown the inadequacy of employing
piecemeal command-and-control approaches in environmental policy.
For example, under the old Clean Air Act, scrubbers were mandated
for most utility plants, thus imposing costs on society that
could have been saved by allowing the least-cost solution at each
plant, discouraging investments in fuel conservation, and,
ironically, reducing emissions of one gas -- sulfur dioxide --
while impairing fuel efficiency and thereby increasing emissions
of another -- CO2. Similarly, piecemeal control of residuals in
different environmental media (land, air, water) have often
simply shifted these residuals around, rather than encouraging a
net reduction in total pollution. Comprehensive, incentive-based
approaches to deal with the array of environmental problems are
now deservedly finding increased favor. For example, the
tradeable credits system in the Clean Air bill proposed by the
Administration would apply market-based incentives to reduce
sulfur emissions, and encourage energy conservation, reducing CO2
emissions markedly while saving about $
billion
annually
in
control costs.
The need for fresh thinking is acute in climate policy
design. Given the interrelationship of climate variables and the
wide range of activities that generate greenhouse gases,
repeating the old mistakes in the climate arena would be
seriously environmentally counterproductive and economically
disruptive. Piecemeal approaches would probably move GHGs around
in a conjurer's shell game, never achieving claimed reductions.
Whatever level of climate protection the international
community may choose to purchase, it ought to implement its
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choice according to a comprehensive approach that embraces all
the greenhouse gases ("GHGs"), their sources and sinks. Even in
the absence of an international agreement, a comprehensive
approach provides the best basis for identifying appropriate
actions that make sense on other grounds and also affect GHGs,
and for targeting investments in technologies that would affect
GHG emissions. From the climate perspective, the environmental
variable of concern is not narrowly definable as emissions of
CO2, or carbon content of fuels, or energy efficiency. It is the
net emissions (sources less sinks) of all greenhouse gases,
weighted by their relative impacts on the environment. Policy
designs must be as comprehensive as the ecological reality they
seek to address. In climate perhaps more than anywhere else,
squeezing the balloon at one end just bulges it out at another.
In addition, any climate policy should harness market
incentives to achieve environmental goals, rather than using
command-and-control techniques that would needlessly raise the
already formidable costs of achieving substantial reductions and
would stagnate vital innovation. Because the costs of different
response measures will be different in different places -- for
example, the cost of curtailing CO2 emissions in a nation with
brand new power plants will likely be more than the cost of the
same percentage reduction in a nation with old, retirement age
plants, or a nation with abundant afforestation opportunities --
it makes no sense for everyone to adopt uniformly the same
specific technologies or percentage reductions. Nor does it make
sense to specify and thereby entrench current techniques and
discourage innovation of better new techniques.
Carboncentric thinking
Those proposing immediate GHG reductions typically
focus on limits, often through adoption of specific "best
available" technology, on CO2 emissions from fossil fuel
combustion. Many such proposals are made by nations who would
enjoy a comparative competitive advantage under such policies --
those who rely on non-carbon or low-carbon energy sources (such
as nuclear, hydropower, or natural gas) or who expect to conserve
energy more cheaply than their trading rivals. But such a narrow
focus is neither warranted by the factual information about
greenhouse gases, nor by sound policy.
First, it is clear that the greenhouse effect is not a
question of CO2 alone. CO2 is portrayed as the chief culprit in
potential global warming because of past accumulations of CO2 and
its large volumetric abundance in current total output. But CO2
is, molecule for molecule, the weakest of the anthropogenic
greenhouse gases. Because any limitation policies must
necessarily address future increments of net GHG emissions, it is
the comparative impact of additional amounts of each gas that
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must be addressed. Estimates of the "relative radiative forcing"
of the various greenhouse gases (their ability to trap heat in
the atmosphere) /Chart on GHGs' residence time, relative
radiative foreing)/ show that a unit of CO2, notwithstanding its
long typical residence time in the atmosphere, is the least
potent contributor to potential warming. Moreover, because there
is already so much CO2 in the atmosphere (about 80% of it due to
natural emissions), the band of the electromagnetic spectrum that
CO2 molecules block is already almost fully occluded, and
additional molecules of CO2 confront the "saturation effect" -- a
sort of atmospheric rule of diminishing marginal returns --
meaning that the incremental radiative forcing of the next CO2
molecule emitted will be measurably less than that of the
previous molecule and thus the current relative potencies shown
in /chart above/ tend to overstate the impact of future CO2
compared to the other GHGs. And the amount of CO2 in the
atmosphere is not growing as rapidly as that of other GHGs: the
atmospheric concentration of CO2 is growing at about 0.3% per
year, while methane is growing at about 1% per year and CFCs at
over 4% per year.
Meanwhile, CO2 provides significant non-warming
benefits that the other greenhouse gases do not. CO2 is the
grist of photosynthesis. Empirical studies repeatedly show that
higher concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere substantially
improve plant productivity and increase the efficiency with which
plants use water. The other greenhouse gases confer no such
benefits, and some pose serious non-warming threats; CFCs, for
example, deplete the stratospheric ozone layer. In order to
provide a sound guide to policy choices, the relative radiative
forcing index shown above in chart X should be expanded to
incorporate the full environmental impacts of each GHG. CO2
would receive a credit for enriching plant growth while CFCs
received a debit for ozone depletion.
The upshot is that, unit-for-unit, CO2 is the most
environmentally benign of the greenhouse gases. If society and
the biosphere had to accept any given amount of predicted
warming, then on purely environmental grounds and abstracting
from the costs of limitation strategies, it would prefer to have
as much of the warming due to CO2 and as little due to other
GHGs. CO2 is in a sense the last gas, on environmental grounds,
whose incremental additions one would want to restrict.
of course, any extensive measures to limit net GHG
emissions -- even under a comprehensive approach -- would mean
some efforts to limit emissions of CO2, the most prevalent
anthropogenic GHG. But the extent of limitations on CO2 or any
other specific GHG should not be mandated by international fiat.
The costs of limiting each GHG would probably vary considerably
among nations, and a uniform restriction on one GHG -- such as a
rule requiring a 20% reduction in CO2 alone -- would impose undue
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costs on nations who could achieve the same net GHG result
through policies or technologies affecting other gases.
Accordingly, each nation should enjoy the flexibility to adopt
whatever mix of policies relating to different GHGs it finds
least costly and burdensome, so long as it achieves its goal in
terms of net weighted GHG limitations.
second, focus on the energy sector alone is
inappropriate. Certainly the energy sector produces a large
share of global anthropogenic CO2, co, VOCS and NOx. But the
greenhouse gases arise from a variety of sources in every sector
of activity, including agriculture, where rice paddies and
ruminant livestock disgorge enormous amounts of methane, and
fertilized fields release nitrous oxide; forestry, where tree-
cutting and soil disruption liberate about 25 to 33% of global
anthropogenic CO2; industry, which emits large amounts of CFCs,
VOCS, CO, and NOX; transportation, which yields co, VOCs, and
CFCs, in addition to CO2; and the residential and commercial
sector, which also produce VOCS and CFCs. /chart on sources &
sectors/
Third, sinks deserve serious attention. It is net
emissions that must be addressed. The net flux of greenhouse
gases into the atmosphere is the result of both emissions from
surface sources and removal by surface sinks, including ocean
mixing, oceanic phytoplankton, trees, grasses, soil biota, crops,
and tropospheric chemical reactions. Plants remove carbon
dioxide from the atmosphere during photosynthesis; thus
preserving and properly managing forests and other vegetation, or
protecting phytoplankton from anthropogenic injury, can help
sequester carbon released from surface sources.
The Comprehensive Approach
Any climate policy design must be "comprehensive" to
match the diverse character of GHGs, their sources and sinks.
Any choice of GHG-relevant actions that are justified in their
own right, investment in new technologies, or design of
limitations strategies, should be based on net GHG emissions,
encompassing all GHGs, sources and sinks, and weighting GHGs
according to an index of their comparative environmental impacts,
similar to the index of relative radiative forcing in chart X
above. This comprehensive design would ensure that no important
GHG is ignored, while, as described above, providing incentives
to limit the most environmentally damaging GHGs first rather than
fixing narrow-mindedly on one gas or sector.
The comprehensive approach would also cure the bane of
piecemeal approaches: unwanted shifts to unregulated activities
that continue to produce environmental degradation. For example,
under a C02-only approach, utilities would likely be encouraged
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to undertake fuel switching from coal to natural gas, because
with current combustion techniques coal burning produces almost
twice as much CO2 per BTU as burning natural gas. But use of
natural gas leads to methane emissions, because methane leaks
from natural gas mining and transportation systems. One recent
study estimates that a 3-6% rate of methane leakage from natural
gas transport would fully offset all the CO2 savings from
switching from coal to natural gas. Such leakage rates are
probably at the high end of the average in many advanced
industrialized countries, but may be typical elsewhere. A swift
expansion of natural gas transport capacity to comply with a
stiff CO2 reduction strategy could well mean use of hastily
designed new facilities, or older facilities in disrepair, with
leakage rates higher than today's. The net result could be
greater net GHG emissions than in the absence of the CO2
reduction effort. Even if the methane leakage rate only offset,
say, 50% of the CO2 savings, the CO2-only policy would be
severely undermined. The comprehensive approach, on the other
hand, would encompass methane emissions and thereby ensure that
methane leakage is included in a nation's net GHG emissions
inventory and in the incentives and efforts to limit net GHG
emissions.
An even more obvious inadvertent shift would attend
efforts to restrict fossil fuel consumption that were applied
piecemeal to one group of nations (such as OECD countries).
Those nations would most likely respond by limiting imported
fuels first, thus lowering prices for those fuels on world
markets and raising the quantity consumed in other nations.
Depending on the sensitivity of consumption to prices and the
efficiency of fuel combustion in the various countries, total GHG
emissions might even rise. Over the slightly longer term,
unilateral or industrialized-only restrictions could induce GHG-
emitting industries to move to unregulated locations. These
concerns point up the need for wide international cooperation on
any limitations strategies.
Each of these shifts would undercut or even cripple the
effectiveness of the piecemeal policy. The experience of past
piecemeal approaches indicates that it is often the unanticipated
shifts -- whether from air pollutants to solid wastes, or from
launcher numbers to MIRVed warheads -- that can most effectively
render narrow policy thinking obsolete.
The "net emissions" aspect of the comprehensive
approach would also provide significant benefits by encouraging
sink expansion, through enhanced forest growth and preservation,
and protection of phytoplankton habitats from pollution. In
addition to limiting net GHG emissions, these activities would
provide side benefits in biodiversity, oceanic food webs, reduced
soil erosion, and better timber management.
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The comprehensive approach would also deliver important
economic benefits. It allows each nation the flexibility to
devise its own cost-effective policy mix. Because the marginal
costs of abatement will vary by gas, source, sink, technique and
across nations, this flexibility will enable the diverse
responses needed to ensure an overall least-cost response. For
example, the least-cost policy option for limiting net emissions
in one nation may be switching from coal to natural gas, while
for another nation it may be changing agricultural practices to
reduce methane and nitrous oxide emissions, and for another it
may be reducing deforestation and ensuring sustainable forest
management. Put another way, reducing emissions of CO2 from
fossil fuel combustion (or stopping deforestation, or any other
single tactic) might be the cheapest way to limit overall net GHG
emissions in one nation, but the most expensive in another.
Global costs of limiting GHGs would be significantly reduced by
allowing the flexibility afforded under the comprehensive
approach.
Applying the comprehensive approach
Any initial convention on climate change should promote
a cooperative scientific research and reporting agenda that
follows the comprehensive approach by examining all GHGs, sources
and sinks. It should also provide that a future protocol (if
any) containing limitations obligations must follow a
comprehensive approach. The convention could even state that any
actions taken after a chosen baseline date will count toward any
eventual limitation obligations under a future protocol (if any),
relying on a provisional index of relative GHG impacts annexed to
the convention. This would assure nations that their own
actions, including actions juasstified in their own right and
steps taken pursuant to both domestic policy and other
international agreements, would receive "credit" if and when
limitations are agreed upon. Without such advance assurances,
nations will be discouraged from taking even GHG-limiting steps
justified on other grounds; they would hesitate lest the protocol
negotiation refuse to give credit for such prior actions, and
would hold them in abeyance pending protocol negotiations.
The major objection that has been raised to the
comprehensive approach is that the current science is not up to
monitoring certain sources and sinks, such as non-point sources
of methane and nitrous oxide. The objectors say that we should
"do what we can now" and wait until later to design a
comprehensive approach. Monitoring many such emissions is not
easy. But it is not beyond our reach, if we focus current
research efforts to support a comprehensive approach. Moreover,
experience belies the suggestion that piecemeal initiatives can
eventually be transformed into a comprehensive strategy.
Piecemeal measures tend to create constituencies with vested
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interests that ensure their perpetuation. For example, the
overbroad Frevention of significant Deterioration (PSD)
provisions in the Clean Air Act limit industrial development in
many regions of the nation, often without environmental
justification. But other regions oppose efforts to relax these
limits for fear that industrial and economic development will
shift to regions now subject to PSD controls. Similarly, any
initial global climate agreement (whether pursued through
obligations to limit GHGs or to invest in new technologies) that
aimed at energy sector CO2 limitations would benefit certain
nations relative to others. The favored nations would resist
development of a more comprehensive approach that would treat all
nations with an even hand. It is accordingly vital to ensure a
"level playing field" by adopting a comprehensive approach at the
outset.
The pertinent question is not what is immediately
"feasible," but whether the costs of proceeding with a flawed
policy design are less than the costs of doing the necessary
groundwork to develop and implement a comprehensive approach.
One need not wait for perfection; in the interim, proxy-based
estimates of difficult-to-measure emissions could be used. The
framework convention or other agreement could provide incentives
to develop and improve monitoring by offering credit for
reductions in difficult-to-monitor GHGS upon a demonstration of
the relevant monitoring techniques to an expert panel. Nations
who see such reductions as to their benefit (either where the
measures are justified in their own right or taken under an
agreed limitation obligation) -- and entrepreneurs looking to
contract with those nations -- would invest in developing the
monitoring capabilities required.
Market-based incentives
The virtues of market-based economic incentives for
environmental protection are increasingly well-recognized.
Market-based tools include fees or taxes, tradeable allowances,
and deposit-refund programs. They have demonstrated success in
several important environmental applications, including the
tradeable credits program used to phase out lead in gasoline --
achieved at about half the cost (amounting to hundreds of
millions of dollars) of a traditional non-trading regulatory
program -- and efforts to reduce litter of glass and aluminum
containers. Both fees and tradeable allowances are now being
used in the U.S. program to eliminate CFC use under the Montreal
Protocol; and tradeable allowances have been proposed for the
acid rain reduction provisions of the new Clean Air Act, with
projected national savings of $ billion annually as compared
to a command-and-control program. We have meanwhile learned a
great deal about the drawbacks of traditional regulatory
approaches, in terms of their cost, obstacles to innovation and
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resource use efficiency, ecological shortsightedness, and
administrative burdens. The common feature of the new tools is
that they respond to market-failure -- such as pollution -- by
redirecting and harnessing market forces to correct the problem.
They provide powerful incentives for socially and environmentally
responsible behavior. At the same time, they allow flexibility
among market actors, promote decentralized decisionmaking about
response tactics, further least-cost solutions by allowing those
who can fix the problem most cheaply to do so first, and
stimulate efficient resource use and broad-scale innovation in
technologies and practices.
Market-based techniques are especially well-suited to
implementing limitation measures, if any are adopted, for GHGs.
Because GHG emissions arise from so many diverse and pervasive
sources, the costs of abatement are bound to vary widely among
emitters. Market-based mechanisms use that variation to social
advantage by imposing some restraint on total emissions -- a
limit on the net quantity emitted, or a fee on each unit emitted
-- but then letting the market allocate the burden of mitigative
measures to those who can most easily shoulder it.
In the climate context, two main economic instruments
have been suggested: tradeable emissions allowances, and
emissions taxes. Tradeable allowances set a total limit on net
emissions, issue that sum of allowances to emitters, and let
emitters trade them. Those for whom emissions reductions or sink
expansions are relatively more expensive will buy allowances,
while those who can achieve them cheaply will sell allowances.
This gives an incentive to each emitter to develop new means of
limiting emissions at less cost than its competitors, so that it
can sell its allowances at a profit. Emissions controls,
efficient use of fuels and other inputs, and innovation of new
emissions limitations techniques become profit centers for the
emitter. The market allocates abatement actions to those who do
so at least cost, reducing the overall cost to society. Such a
technique could be used to limit net GHG emissions through
emissions trading. Domestically, governments could issue
allowances for amortized net GHG emissions. Allowances would
count toward net emissions of GHGs. Those issued allowances,
such as electric utilities, could meet their allowance limits
through energy conservation, fuel switching, reducing methane
leaks from energy systems, arranging for tree planting, or
arranging for reductions in other GHGs by other actors. The
value of activities relating to different gases would be
calculated according to an index of the comparative environmental
impacts of the GHGs. Government clearinghouses, private brokers,
and banks could act to facilitate trading among disparate parties
and across periods of time.
International reallocations of national obligations
through trades would also be advantageous. Such trades could
SENT BY:DEPT OF JUST DC
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consist of informal, bilateral reallocations of obligations to
limit GHGs. One nation could satisfy its obligations by
investing in response actions in another. For example, Nation A
could provide new energy technology to Nation B, in return for
all or part of the value of B's reduction in emissions. or
Nation C could plant and manage trees in D's territory while
offering agricultural aid to compensate for the reduced available
arable land in D. Nation E might earn the opportunity to record
certain emissions reductions achieved in Nation F in return for
debt forgiveness promised to F. Given significant international
variations in marginal costs of limitation, such trades would
likely enable the world economy to realize substantial cost
savings. These arrangements would demonstrate the power of
applying Adam Smith's lessons of comparative advantage to global
environmental resources.
Trading could also be more formalized, with allowances
issued to nations according to negotiated allocations.
Allowances could be made of limited duration, or leasable, to
relieve fears of hoarding or other distortions due to exercise of
market power. Such trading in GHG limitations would also serve
as a market-based, decentralized vehicle for introducing needed
low-GHG-emitting technology into the developing world. It would
point technology toward those who needed it most, and stimulate
innovation by industrialized nations of technologies useful in
developing nations. At the same time this framework would
obviate creation of a heavily bureaucratized, centralized
regulatory authority and technology assistance fund, with
attendant opportunities for waste and misallocation of benefits.
Emissions taxes for net GHG emissions are another
important option. The tax rate could be geared to the GHG index
value of the emissions activity. Like emissions trading,
emissions taxes offer a least-cost solution that promotes
innovation and efficient resource use. Such a plan could make
excellent sense domestically, especially where the focus is on
specifying the cost of a GHG limitation program more precisely
than the quantity of emissions avoided, or where revenue raising
is a major goal. International application of a tax would raise
many more difficult questions: Would nations cede their
sovereignty to an international tax authority? How would the tax
be set? How would the potentially enormous revenues raised be
allotted and expended?
Conclusion.
[to add]
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- DRAFT page 12 -
BOX A
List of international events
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), including its
recent First Assessment Report and its structure for pursuing
further research.
Conference of OECD Environment Ministers in January 1991
Second World Climate Conference in November 1990
Bergen Conference in May 1990
Washington Conference on Science and Economics Relating to Global
Change in April 1990
Cairo Conference in December 1989
Noordwijk Conference in October 1989
Toronto Conference in June 1988
GLOBAL CUMATE
TECHNOLOGY
GLOBAL WARMING:
WHAT WE KNOW
Time bomb or teapot tempest? Scientists still think the earth is heating up, though they're less
sure how much or how fast. Some precautions make sense in any case.
by Peter Nulty
T IS THE YEAR 2000-something. The
into clouds that reflect the sun's rays away
squinting white, required by law in order to re-
earth is warming up because gases like
from the earth.
flect the sun's rays. A dark green forest of
carbon dioxide (CO₂), created by burn-
From his home overlooking Denver, Barren
drought-resistant loblolly pines begins at the
ing fossil fuels, are accumulating in the
sometimes tries to picture the city as it must
city's outskirts and stretches eastward almost
atmosphere. Pilot T.J. "Red" Barren is a vet-
have been decades ago, back in the 1990s.
unbroken across the once Great Plains to the
eran of the global campaign to reverse the
Then Denver was smoggy by day and blazed
Mississippi. When ranchers started going bust
buildup. He has flown over the world's
with light at night. Now it's dark at night and
in the heat, the whole country went nuts plant-
oceans, dropping fertilizers to promote growth
ablaze by day. Stiff taxes on carbon dioxide
ing trees to soak up the excess CO2.
of microorganisms that consume CO₂. He
pollution have made coal-generated electricity
has seeded the atmosphere with aerosols, tiny
too expensive to waste on outdoor lighting.
Could this really happen? Two years ago,
particles that cause water vapor to condense
And in the sun, the roofs of Denver are an eye-
when the Midwest was parched by drought
Ben & Jerry's ice cream uses Brazil nuts like these from Rio Branco to show that saving forests is worthwhile economically as well as environmentally.
PHOTOGRAPH BY CLAUDIO EDINGER-GAMMA/LIAISON
APRIL 9, 1990 FORTUNE 101
TECHNOLOGY
and Yellowstone Park was in flames, the sci-
don't know, and what can be done until they
ago was 51°, just 8° cooler than today.
entists answered with a resounding yes.
solve the riddle:
Add to these facts three pieces of circum-
Some even warned that a global warming has
The facts about global warming are
stantial evidence and it becomes clear why
begun that will bring catastrophe in the 21st
sparse but compelling. Certain gases in the
alarms are sounding: Laboratory analysis of
century, destroying agriculture and flooding
atmosphere, principally water vapor and
glacial ice as much as 160,000 years old indi-
coastal lowlands like Florida and Bangla-
CO2, trap heat radiating from the earth's
cates that global temperature and CO2 lev-
desh. Since then, however, further research
surface. If they did not, the earth's average
els in the atmosphere do in fact rise and fall
strongly suggests that natural phenomena
temperature would be roughly 0° instead of
together. Temperature readings that are not
just over 59°, and everything would be fro-
necessarily reliable suggest that the globe
zen solid. Human activity creates green-
has warmed about 1° in the past 100 years
house gases that include CO₂ (mainly from
(see chart). And the decade of the 1980s
combustion), methane (from crops and live-
was the warmest in this century.
stock), and chlorofluorocarbons, or CFCs
(from aerosol spray cans, air conditioners,
OME OF the unanswered ques-
and refrigerators).
S
tions are most intriguing. Global
Unquestionably the greenhouse gases
climate is the product of interac-
mankind is spewing forth are accumulating
tions among many elements. The
in the atmosphere. Regular measurements
largest single factor is the oceans, which
of CO2 taken since the 1950s, for instance,
have 1,000 times more capacity to store heat
show that concentrations have increased at
than the atmosphere. But climate is also af-
the rate of about 0.5% per year. James Han-
fected by land masses, the biosphere (living
sen, a leading expert with NASA's Goddard
things), the atmosphere, clouds, glaciers, the
Institute for Space Studies, estimates that
sun, the tilt of the earth, and more. The
Weyerhaeuser tests drought-resistant lobiolly
the CO₂ added to the atmosphere since the
computer programs that predict global
pine trees that could help slow global warming.
Industrial Revolution got rolling about 1800
warming are mainly simulations of the at-
has the heating power of roughly one watt-
mosphere called general circulation models.
like clouds and ocean currents may mitigate
equal to a single tiny Christmas tree bulb-
So far they take little account of how the at-
the greenhouse effect. So while most experts
per square meter of the earth's surface.
mosphere is cooled or warmed by the
still believe in their guts that the globe will
That may not sound like much, but it
oceans, clouds, and other factors.
warm up, they are now less certain that disas-
doesn't take a lot to alter the world as we
Then consider the Case of the Missing
ter will result. Nearly everyone is worried,
know it. The global mean temperature at
CO₂. The finite quantity of carbon on earth
but not as worried as two years ago.
the height of the last ice age 18,000 years
is recycled through the atmosphere, water,
The critical questions are how much the
60.0
360
earth will warm, and how fast. Right now
forecasts for global warming are little more
100 YEARS OF CO2
than hunches based on skimpy evidence
from a very young branch of science. Com-
puter models estimate that the mean global
59.5
345
temperature will rise between 1.8° and 10°
Fahrenheit sometime in the next 50 to 100
Global average
years-a very broad range of possibilities. A
temperature
2° increase in 100 years might be manage-
59.0
330
able, while 9° over 50 years could raise sea
levels and burn out croplands at a disastrous
clip. Resolving the debate among climatolo-
gists will take a while.
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT
PARTS PER MILLION
Yet if the uncertainties are great, so are
58.5
315
the consequences of misjudgment. Reduc-
ing the gases that promote the greenhouse
effect could cost trillions-wasted money if
Atmospheric
carbon dioxide
the globe isn't warming much after all. But
58.0
300
if nobody does anything and the world heats
up rapidly, the damage could be incalculable
and irreversible. Fortunately, business, gov-
1882
'90
1900
'10
'20
'30
'40
'50
'60
'70
'80
'88
ernment, and citizens can do much to help,
including conserving energy and planting a
billion trees a year as President Bush has
Some scientists fear that the century-long rise in global temperatures, shown here as a five-year
proposed. Most of the ideas make sense
running average, results partly from carbon dioxide produced by burning fossil fuels like coal and oil.
whether global warming gets worse or not.
Skeptics point out, however, that most of the temperature rise came before CO2 levels started moving
Here's what scientists know, what they
up sharply and that the average temperature worldwide actually fell between 1940 and the mid-1960s.
102 FORTUNE APRIL 9, 1990
TECHNOLOGY
and living things. Plants, for instance, take
they are made of water vapor, another
alarmists can be hard to tell from the skep-
carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, break
greenhouse gas. Will more clouds have a net
tics. Lindzen says his hunch is that the globe
it apart, give off the oxygen, and use the car-
warming or a net cooling effect?
will warm between 1° and 2° in the next cen-
bon to build new cells and grow. When
One fascinating aspect of the cloud ques-
tury. One of his chief antagonists, Stephen
plants die and decay, CO2 is formed and
tion: Scientists have discovered that sulfur
Schneider of the National Center for Atmo-
passes into the air or water. Fossil fuels like
dioxide, a pollutant from smokestacks that is
spheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, says
coal and oil constitute a huge store of car-
blamed for acid rain, also causes clouds to
he's 90% sure of at least that much warm-
bon that was taken out of the cycle millions
form. That might explain why many indus-
ing. NASA's Hansen, who stunned Congress
of years ago when the vegetation that creat-
trial regions of Earth have not warmed up as
in 1988 by suggesting that global warming
ed them became trapped in the earth.
much in the past century as the computer
had begun, says he is more optimistic today
Man is putting that carbon back into cir-
climate models say they should have. And it
that the worst-case scenario won't come to
culation by burning fossil fuels. Using a
raises the possibility that if the U.S. scrubs
pass. Still, he adds, "We could be building a
rough estimate of how much fossil fuel the
sulfur from smokestack emissions, the air
time bomb for ourselves."
modern world has consumed, scientists have
will be not only cleaner but hotter as well.
What then should be done? The Congres-
calculated how much CO₂ has been released
into the atmosphere by the process. But
when they analyze the atmosphere, they find
only half the predicted amount.
CHARLIE ARCHAMBAULT
At a recent hearing held by the National
Academy of Sciences' policy committee,
James Hansen was asked where the carbon
went. "We're not really sure," he replied.
"There must be a carbon sink somewhere.
Maybe it's the northern forest." Translation:
Something big is absorbing carbon-maybe
all those trees in Canada and Scandinavia
and the U.S.S.R. But for forests to soak up
half the CO₂ produced, the trees would have
to be either bigger or more numerous than
they were before the Industrial Revolution.
A spokesman for the American Forestry As-
sociation says no evidence indicates that has
happened. Maybe the mysterious sink is
something in the oceans, which contain 55
times as much carbon as the atmosphere
and 20 times more than plants.
Nor were the experts able to tell the NAS
hearing what causes CO₂ levels to rise and
Chemists like Du Pont's Leo Manzer seek out substitutes for CFCs, which add to the greenhouse effect.
fall with temperature through time, as evi-
denced by those samples of glacial ice.
Says Ned Ostenso, an assistant administra-
sional Budget Office is studying "carbon
Clearly some natural force or forces can
tor of the National Oceanic and Atmospher-
charges," excise taxes that would penalize
move CO2 levels up and down independent-
ic Administration: "Our knowledge of the
the use of carbon-rich fuels like coal. The
ly of man. No one knows what they are-or
global system is still pretty rudimentary, but
less carbon in the fuel, the lighter the tax.
what they are up to right now.
we're learning that it's made up of wheels
The CBO estimates that the charges needed
within wheels within wheels."
just to keep the CO2 emission rate where it
NOTHER MYSTERY: the so-
No one knows how these feedbacks will
is would come to $17 for a ton of coal, which
A
called feedbacks, reactions to glob-
add up, and that has led to some sharp ex-
now costs $30, and 8.6 cents per gallon of
al warming that will either speed it
changes between the alarmists and the
gasoline. A study by the Electric Power Re-
up or slow it down. An atmosphere
skeptics among climatologists. One promi-
search Institute, an industry R&D organi-
richer in CO2, a natural fertilizer, could
nent skeptic, Richard Lindzen, a professor
zation, estimates that after discounting to
make plants grow larger. Will we have bas-
of meteorology at MIT, recently suggested
present value, the cost to the U.S. economy
ketball-size tomatoes, or just weeds as big
that in certain climes global warming might
of cutting CO₂ emissions 20% would be
as telephone poles? How much carbon will
decrease the amount of water vapor in the
$800 billion to $3.6 trillion over the next
super plants soak up? Or take clouds, a po-
upper atmosphere, which would have a cool-
century. The lower estimate assumes grow-
tentially bigger factor. In a warmer world,
ing effect. Alarmists scoff at Lindzen's sug-
ing use of clean energy at a price competi-
more water will evaporate and the weather
gestion, arguing that water vapor will in-
tive with coal. Such a technology exists:
could become cloudier. More clouds could
crease in the lower atmosphere-with the
nuclear power.
reflect more sunlight. But they will also trap
opposite result.
With so much at stake, the Bush Adminis-
more heat from the earth's surface because
With uncertainties like these, it is per-
tration is wisely seeking international partic-
REPORTER ASSOCIATE Alicia Hills Moore
haps not surprising that sometimes the
ipation in any plan to roll back CO₂
104 FORTUNE APRIL 9, 1990
YOUR PALATE MAY HAVE ADJUSTED
TO AN AGE OF DIET SODA AND LIGHT BEER.
emissions. The expense of unilateral reduc-
BUT WHAT ABOUT YOUR SOUL?
tions would put the U.S. at a disadvantage in
world markets while its industrialized com-
petitors and the Third World increase emis-
sions in pursuit of economic development.
Besides, one country acting alone wouldn't
have much effect. The U.S. is participating in
It isn't surprising that Knockando Single Malt
an intergovernmental panel on climate con-
Scotch Whisky is prized in this age of unnatural
trol that will issue a scientific report in the
concoctions.
fall on the dangers of global warming. Mem-
It's a product that makes no concession to the
bers, including Western European powers,
20th century.
Japan, and the Soviet Union, will try to get
Knockando is made from three, and only
together on solutions. The model is the Mon-
three, ingredients.
treal protocol of 1988, in which 30 nations
Malted barley. Cultured yeast. And the
agreed to phase out CFCs.
soft, peaty water of our own Speyside spring.
Roger Sedjo of Resources for the Future,
It's distilled. Distilled again. And finally,
a research center in Washington, D.C., esti-
poured into oak casks to be aged.
Not by the calendar, but for precisely as
mates that planting 1.1 billion acres of new
long as it takes to reach its peak flavour.
forest, roughly equivalent to the area of the
Whether that's 12 years, or 15.
contiguous states west of the Mississippi,
The result is a whisky of such excep-
would soak up all 2.9 billion tons of carbon
tional subtlety and texture that it provides
that gets added to the atmosphere each year.
a level of experience approached only by
Says Sedjo: "We are talking big numbers,
particularly fine wine.
increasing the world's forests by some 16%
In fact, Knockando (which rhymes with
at a cost of maybe $500 billion. But if this is
commando) is considered by many to be the
an emergency and it's paid for out of a glob-
single finest Single Malt in
&
al checkbook, it can be done."
Scotland.
We certainly urge
USINESS CAN DO a number of
you to try it.
B
things that make sense in their
After all, you can
own right and also help limit glob-
expect it to satisfy con-
siderably more than
al warming. Pacific Gas & Electric
is building a $10 million research center to
3
your thirst.
look for ways to save energy in lighting. Du
Pont, among others, is at work on substi-
tutes for CFCs, which deplete the ozone lay-
er. Weyerhaeuser is developing loblolly
pines that get by with little water. Trees also
help conserve energy: Lawrence Berkeley
To send a gift of Knockando anywhere in the U.S.
call 1-800-528-6148. Void where prohibited
Laboratories and the American Forestry
Knockando Fine Single Malt Scotch Whisky, 43% Alc. by Vol.,
© 1989 Imported by The Paddington Corp., Fort Lee, N.J.
Association estimate that the shade pro-
duced by 100 million trees planted in empty
spaces in suburban and commercial neigh-
borhoods around the country could save $4
billion a year in air conditioning bills.
Single. Two Kids.
One creative new product comes from
Great American Investor.
Ben & Jerry's Homemade Inc. The Ver-
To Air Force Staff Sergeant Andrea
mont gourmet ice cream maker is mixing a
Pabon, investing in U.S. Savings Bonds was
new flavor called Rain Forest Crunch that
a smart decision. "It isn't easy raising two
contains Brazil nuts harvested from the
kids on my pay. With Bonds, we've got a
wilds of the Amazon jungle. Since carbon
real shot at the future." Put your money in
dioxide entering the atmosphere as a result
the Great American Investment-U.S.
of deforestation accounts for roughly 20%
Savings Bonds. Call us to find out more.
of the worldwide annual buildup of CO2,
U.S. SAVINGS BONDS
Ben & Jerry's figures that creating demand
for nuts might save the trees from the set-
tler's ax-and help curb global warming.
THE GREAT
Think of the salve to your conscience next
time you happen on some Rain Forest
1-800-US-BONDS
A public service of this publication.
Crunch. Eat all you want: Save a tree.
F
APRIL 9, 1990 FORTUNE 105
U.S. Department of Justice
Land and Natural Resources Division
Office of the Assistant Attorney General
Washington, D.C. 20530
June 4, 1990
MEMORANDUM
TO:
D. Allan Bromley
Assistant to the President
for Science & Technology
CC:
C. Boyden Gray
Counsel to the President
Stephen I. Danzansky
Deputy Assistant to the President
Director of Cabinet Affairs
Robert E. Grady
Associate Director for Natural Resources,
Energy and Science
Theresa Gorman
Associate Director for Environment, Energy
and Natural Resources Policy
FROM:
Dick Stewart DS
Assistant Attorney General
SUBJECT: Work of the Task Force to Further Develop the
"Comprehensive" and "Trading" Approaches to Possible
Climate Change Agreements
This memorandum summarizes our work over the past three
weeks in gearing up the Task Force on the Comprehensive and
Emissions Trading and recommends several further initiatives.
The first meeting was held on May 16, and attended by
DOE, EPA, NOAA, OSTP, State, USDA, USTR, and the White House
Counsel's office. We distributed in advance a list of issues to
be considered by the Task Force (attached). The attendees agreed
with the mission of the Task Force and developed a work plan
outline employing three subgroups, to address the practical
workings of:
(1) the comparative index of the environmental impacts
of greenhouse gases (including both warming and non-warming
impacts, and using discounting or time horizons to account
for the time value of investments in mitigation),
- 2 -
(2) measuring and monitoring net (both source and sink)
emissions of greenhouse gases (seeking to identify and fill
knowledge gaps regarding, e.g., sinks for CO2 and sources of
CH4 and N20), and
(3) emissions trading.
(The attached list of issues elaborates on each of these
elements.) During the next two weeks, we held preliminary
meetings to set up the three subgroup activities planned on May
16. Our next anticipated meeting will be held on June 19 or 20,
at which relevant U.S. government experts will present the state
of knowledge on the first area, the index. 1
Meanwhile, several related activities have been
ongoing, including:
Boyden Gray has organized an informal group from
several agencies to assess what percentage reductions
in greenhouse gas emissions will be obtained by current
Administration policies. This effort will be an
excellent heuristic for full development of the
comprehensive approach. It relies heavily upon, and
demonstrates the operation of, the index of gases'
comparative impacts. It also suggests the areas in
which our ability to monitor and predict future
emissions is weak. The numbers developed to date are
tentative and could profit from several elaborations,
including assessments of additional policies not yet
included in the calculations, e.g. reductions in
agricultural subsidies; calculations of these numbers
for selected other nations; and attention to the use of
discount rates.
O
DOE is pursuing climate policy issues under the
National Energy Strategy. Our Task Force will work
closely with the DOE NES staff.
EPA's draft Incentives Task Force report has devoted
some attention to the emissions trading approach.
The Committee on Earth & Environmental Sciences (CEES)
Working Group on Mitigation and Adaptation Research
Strategies (MARS), under the direction of John Knauss,
¹The scheduling of these meetings has been hampered by
related meetings occurring abroad during May and June. For
example, next week I and others will attend the IPCC Response
Strategies Working Group meeting in Geneva, and at the end of
June the parties to the Montreal Protocol will meet.
- 3 -
is preparing the federal research strategy for
responses to potential global climate change.
Dr. Knauss has stated that the top priority of the
MARS group should be generating the research needed to
support the comprehensive approach: the measurement and
monitoring of all greenhouse gases, and the comparative
index. Along these lines, the MARS subgroup on
mitigation is addressing emissions of several (though
not all) greenhouse gases in several sectors.
Despite our urging and Dr. Knauss' statement, the
index does not seem to be receiving attention. Some
members of the MARS group have said that the index
ought to be developed by the CEES Working Group on
Global Change (GC), a more purely science-oriented
group, but that group does not appear to be doing so.
We believe for several reasons that the MARS group is
the appropriate setting for this work, 2 and we urge you
to indicate to Dr. Knauss that you agree with his and
our view and that you believe the MARS group should,
working with our Task Force as we develop the design
and policy rationale for the index, include the index
as a top-level priority in its research plan.
²First, the development of the index is essential to the
success of the comprehensive approach. Second, Dr. Knauss has
stated his support for the endeavor. Third, the index is a basic
policy tool for use in designing or assessing mitigation
strategies. Although it is founded on sciences, it will require
policy analysis judgments at several stages; for example, the
choice of discount rates, and the rationale relied upon for that
choice, is a policy judgment, not a pure science judgment.
Similarly, the integration of warming impacts and non-warming
impacts of gases in the index will require careful policy
choices. Fourth, the translation of the index from our work to
the international arena may be more effective if the MARS, or
both the MARS and the GC, rather than the GC alone, undertakes
these efforts. In the international arena, the index has been
developed in the Science Working Group of the IPCC. But that
Group's index makes uncertain choices on discount rates, and
omits non-warming impacts. In order for us to improve that
index, it will be helpful to argue that the next stage of work on
the index should occur in the Response Strategies Working Group,
which can assemble the multidisciplinary team needed to perform
this task (and which the U.S. chairs). In making that argument
it will be very helpful if our work within the U.S. government
has been parceled out in like fashion to the our Task Force and
the MARS group.
- 4 -
In order to advance the comprehensive and emissions
trading groups further, we hope to:
-- expand the group of agencies giving input to our three
subgroups. For example, our work on the index will
involve EPA, DOE, NOAA, NASA, and others, and we hope
to establish a firmer bridge to the CEES-MARS.
-- meet informally during the next week with those of our
group who will be in Geneva for the RSWG plenary
session.
-- schedule a meeting on the elements of an index, and
possibly also on measuring and monitoring emissions,
for June 19 or June 20, at DOJ. The meeting will
include presentations by experts from NOAA, EPA, DOE,
USDA, and possibly others as well.
-- based in part on the meeting just mentioned, develop a
model of the benefits and costs -- both economic and
environmental -- of using the comprehensive approach.
We will also develop an assessment of the additional
work needed to bring the comprehensive approach to
fruition, and the time and resources needed for that
effort.
-- develop in greater detail the issues involved in
implementing emissions trading. We will work with CEA,
Commerce, DOE, DOI, EPA, USDA, USTR, State, and others
to develop a draft design for international trading and
a draft design for domestic trading. We will also work
towards an economic model that estimates the benefits
and costs of allowing trading in each context.
-- discuss these approaches informally with interested
research institutions outside the government. It would
be useful to be able to arrange and fund contract
studies of these approaches by independent think tanks
in the near future.
-- present papers, seminars and discussions on these
approaches for audiences including, as appropriate:
relevant U.S. government personnel (including posts
abroad), the DPC Climate Strategy Group, the
President's Council of Advisors on Science and
Technology and nongovernmental organizations likely to
be helpful, and appropriate international seminars
through the IPCC and OECD.
We should publish articles, perhaps ranging from
fully footnoted tracts in academic journals to op-eds
- 5 -
in newspapers, that explain our approaches. We have
also been invited to put our papers on the World Press
Centre's non-advocacy worldwide electronic information
service.
The key to advancing our approaches may well be
educating audiences to their desirability and
generating vigorous discussion among thinking
observers. I suggest that we pursue as many of these
avenues as we can.
U.S. Department of Justice
Land and Natural Resources Division
Office of the Assistant Attorney General
Washington, D.C. 20530
May 14, 1990
MEMORANDUM
TO:
Terry Davies, EPA/OPPE
Gary Evans, USDA
Bob Reinstein, USTR
Dick Schmalensee, CEA
Dick Smith, State/OES
J.R. Spradley, DOC/NOAA
Linda Stuntz, DOE/OPPA
CC:
Theresa Gorman, OPD
Jeff Holmstead, WH Counsel
Nancy Maynard, OSTP
FROM:
Dick Stewart DSISEW /
Assistant Attorney General
SUBJECT: Issues to be Considered by the Task Force on the
"Comprehensive" and "Trading" Approaches to Possible
Climate Change Agreements
For your consideration, attached please find a draft
list of issues that the task force might explore. There may be
other issues and sub-issues that need to be considered as well,
and I look forward to hearing your views on Wednesday, May 16.
COMPREHENSIVE/EMISSIONS TRADING TASK FORCE
Draft List of Issues 5/14/90
Issues to be developed in further detail by the task
force might include:
I. "Comprehensive" approach:
1. Gaps and difficulties in measuring sources and
sinks of greenhouse gases. For some, measurement information is
available, e.g. fossil fuel combustion emissions of CO2, while
for others, measurement information is currently highly
uncertain, e.g. certain emissions of CH4. What would be needed
to overcome these gaps and difficulties, and how long would it
take?
2. Related difficulties in developing the capacity to
monitor net emissions of greenhouse gases. Issues include
monitoring nonpoint sources and sinks such as agricultural
fields, forests, and plankton; monitoring and verifying changes
in total abundance of sources and sinks; monitoring and verifying
changes in source output rates and sink uptake rates; development
of reliable and more easily monitorable proxies or surrogates for
actual source output and sink uptake; burdens of proof in
demonstrating new net emissions rates and new monitoring methods;
economic incentives to develop improved monitoring methods.
3. Developing institutions for monitoring and
compliance assurance.
4. Developing a comparative parameter or "index" of
the environmental impacts of the various gases. Issues include
defining the lifetimes of certain gases, relating the index
function to ambient concentrations of gases (the "saturation" or
"window" question), use and choice of discount rates,
incorporating non-warming impacts of gases, mapping the index
function over time, and relating the index to net emissions from
different sources and sinks.
5. If a comprehensive approach is not immediately
feasible for all relevant gases, sources and sinks, an agreement
might target first those for which it is feasible, and then phase
in additional gases, sources, and sinks as the science and data
improve. The initial agreement or set of agreements should not
preclude a comprehensive approach; should promote attention to
all gases, sources and sinks; should promote relevant scientific
research; and could provide incentives for development of a
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comprehensive approach, e.g. by rewarding those who demonstrate
the capacity to monitor (or even limit) net emissions of various
gases, including gases not covered in the original agreement.
6. Relationship between a comprehensive approach and
agreements that deal with particular gases, sources, and sinks,
such as the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the
Ozone Layer, the sulphur and nitrogen protocols and the upcoming
volatile organic compounds (VOCs) protocol to the Long-Range
Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP) convention, and a possible
agreement on forests. The comprehensive approach can remain
consistent with these other specific agreements if it provides
additional incentives to reduce the deleterious activities
addressed by those agreements, but does not allow nations to
escape their obligations under those agreements. 1 Categorically
excluding the subjects of these other agreements from the climate
agreement would forfeit the chance to add incentives for
additional reductions in the deleterious activities.
7. Initial allocations. How might they differ under
the comprehensive and gas-by-gas approaches? Issues in setting
baselines.
¹Take, for example, the case of CFCs and halons, which are
both ozone-depleting substances regulated under the Montreal
Protocol and greenhouse gases likely to be regulated in a
comprehensive approach. Under the comprehensive approach,
nations would be free to vary their mix of reductions of CO2 and
CFCs/halons, except that CFC/halon reductions must still be at
least as deep and as rapid as those called for in the Montreal
Protocol and its progeny (i.e. London June 1990). In other
words, only additional reductions in CFCs/halons beyond or faster
than the reductions called for under the Montreal Protocol
(likely to be a phaseout by 2000) could serve to offset CO2
reductions, thereby enabling the nation to forego some reductions
in CO2; extra reductions in CO2 could not allow a nation to
reduce CFCs/halons less strictly or less rapidly than it is
required to accomplish under the Montreal Protocol.
At the same time, the question of the baseline to be used
for the greenhouse gas agreement would remain open: the agreement
could give nations credit for all reductions in CFCs and halons
after a certain date or level, or only for reductions that go
beyond their Montreal Protocol obligations. The choice of the
baseline for computation would not lift the legal obligation to
comply with the Montreal Protocol. On the other hand, using a
baseline that accounts for only reductions in CFCs and halons
beyond those mandated under the Montreal Protocol could give
nations a prospective incentive to slow down the negotiations of
more stringent reduction schedules under the Montreal Protocol,
whereas a baseline counting all reductions in CFCs and halons
would not.
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8. Defining the terms of agreement and the terms for
admission to an initial or subsequent agreement. These could
differ for different nations or categories of nations, and could
include research commitments as well as emissions limitation
commitments.
9. Documenting the advantages to the comprehensive
approach: avoids ignoring important gases, offers flexibility to
different economic, institutional and social circumstances,
enhances sink development.
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II. "Emissions trading" approach:
A. National (Domestic) Trading
1. Informal vs. formal trading: considerations may
differ depending on whether joint arrangements are permissible
subject to governmental oversight (informal trading) or whether
an allowance/permit system is created (formal trading). That is,
informal trading can occur through ad hoc mutual reallocations of
emissions by two or more parties to meet their aggregate
obligations. Formal trading involves the inventory,
registration, or issuance of some kind of permits or allowances,
with subsequent trading to be denominated in these permits or
allowances. Variations and permutations of these approaches can
also be devised.
2. Identifying which gases, sources and sinks could
feasibly be included in a trading system.
3. Identifying who would trade, and to whom emissions
and emissions reductions are assigned. For example, emissions
attributable to electricity use (and attendant tradeable
allowances) could be assigned to utilities, appliance
manufacturers, end users (businesses, farms & households), or
some combination. Similarly, emissions attributable to gasoline
combustion (and attendant tradeable allowances) could be assigned
to oil extraction companies, oil refiners, automobile
manufacturers, automobile owners, or some combination.
4. Consideration given in return for emissions
allowances, including financial and technology assistance that
may flow to allowance sellers. Important distributional impacts
may concern national policymakers, as they have in the debates
about the Clean Air Act here.
5. Facilitating trades. National and subnational
governmental bodies could act as information clearinghouses,
allowance/permit banks, brokers, auctioneers, and so forth.
Private entities might also take on these roles.
6. Monitoring trading. Emissions would have to be
monitored under any agreement, but trading would require some
oversight of the trades. Depending on who does the trading,
monitoring could be designed in different ways. National or
subnational governmental bodies could perform this role, perhaps
hiring private contractors. Monitoring could consist of spot
checks, on site verification (e.g. of sinks), reporting or
registration requirements, designated times and places for
trading, or other arrangements. Administrative costs and
financing of such institutions need to be considered.
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7. Nature and duration of allowance/permit rights.
Trading could involve, sales, leases, or other arrangements.
Allowances could expire or diminish in face value over time.
Sophisticated markets for trade currency might arise (as well as
black markets if conditions limit the transferability of
allowances), including futures and options markets. The tax
status of allowance transactions could also be important. These
arrangements can be structured to address concerns about
"hoarding" and market-cornering by wealthy parties (see below).
8. Dealing with moral concerns about trading, such as
the "license to pollute" issue and the notion that extra
reductions should "go to benefit society." Comparison to
regulation and emissions taxes.
9. Dealing with economic concerns about trading.
Concerns may include: "hoarding" of tradeable rights; fears that
wealthy parties would buy up all of the poorer parties' rights;
monopsony and monopoly problems; hindrances to trading related to
inadequate awareness of other market participants; problems of
transferring allowances across industry lines and along vertical
market lines.
10. Possible environmental concerns. Trading in
greenhouse gases generally has no "hotspot" problem because the
gases mix globally in the atmosphere. But there may be spatial
distribution issues regarding, e.g., the residence time of short-
lived gases such as CH4, and the toxicity of gases such as CO and
tropospheric 03. These issues may be too detailed and
insufficiently significant to address at this time.
11. Initial and subsequent allocation of allowances:
how would it differ if trading is available or not. Would the
option of trading ease or exacerbate "gaming" of the initial
allocation? What would the length of rights be? What
flexibility should government have to modify the total stock?
Would government derive revenue by auctioning rights off, taxing
them, or other means?
12. Use of empirical experience with trading to deal
with these issues. Also, what trading has occurred under the
Montreal Protocol?
13. Documenting and predicting the advantages to
trading: allocative efficiency (possibly start with an
explanation of the ordinary gains from trade), incentives to
reduce emissions, dynamic efficiency and innovation, incentives
to use resources efficiently, incentives for sink enhancement,
more affordable pollution control, equity.
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14. Relationship to other laws, e.g. laws pertaining
to clean air, energy production, forestry, and agriculture.
Relationship of national law to subnational governmental law,
e.g. federalism concerns, the ability of states to impose
requirements that affect trading, preemption of state law.
B. International Trading
In addition to the elements listed above under national trading,
the following issues may be relevant:
1. Informal or formal trading. As with national
trading, international trading could initially occur "informally"
through ad hoc bilateral or regional governmental treaties. or
more formal trading systems could be created, involving the
issuance of allowances or permits in which trades are to be
denominated.
2. Identifying who would trade. International trading
could be undertaken, on a bilateral, multilateral or regional
basis, by national governments. Yet private enterprises may be
better situated to identify and make productive trades. Trades
by private enterprises could be subject to clearance or
monitoring by national governments. A mixed system of trading by
both governments and enterprises could also be created.
Nations with different economic systems may find
trading to be best conducted by different actors. For example,
fully centrally planned economies may not find trading by
"private" entities to be appropriate. At the extreme, must a
nation have a domestic trading program in operation in order to
participate effectively in international trading?
3. International institutions to monitor trading. The
questions concerning who would trade have important implications
for how trading would be monitored, and for the degree of
formality and comprehensiveness of the international institutions
monitoring trades. Unrestricted private trading, for example,
could require a more elaborate international clearinghouse and
monitoring apparatus than might a system limited to trading by
national governments. Private trading could also (or
alternatively) be monitored by national governments. Trading by
national governments would presumably be monitored by an
international body. Monitoring could vary from simple reporting
requirements to prior approval requirements; procedures could be
routine or elaborate. International monitoring mechanisms such
as inspections and audits might also raise concerns about
sovereignty.
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4. Scope of trades. Trading could occur among any
interested parties within a global "bubble," or it could be
conducted under regional "bubbles." The scope chosen could vary
depending on the gas, sources and sinks in question.
5. Consideration for trades and related trade and
development issues. Trading of net greenhouse gas emissions
would create a new medium of exchange, with associated flows of
capital and technology. Trading could be a vehicle for resource
transfers to developing nations. If developing nations have
lower reduction costs than developed nations, perhaps owing to
their ability to shift directly to non-fossil fuel energy sources
and their abundant afforestation opportunities, developing
nations could earn resources by selling excess allowances. (The
same could be true of other low-cost reducers, such as planned
economies about to turn over their capital stock, and nations
that develop useful innovations.) Some argue that this mechanism
poses the risk of undue economic leverage for developing nations,
and that it will influence the gaming of initial allocations.
Others see this mechanism as a decentralized, market-based
alternative to resource flows dictated by international
organizations, central international assistance funds, and
preferential terms for technology transfer demanded by developing
nations. This raises important issues regarding international
aid and trade regimes. There may also be important issues
regarding international trade regimes, e.g. international energy
markets, GATT, efforts by national governments to distort
international trade in allowances or to protect domestic
allowance holders, and others; and regarding international aid
regimes, e.g. alternatives to central aid funds, and the
calculation and ownership of the net emissions impacts of ongoing
aid-funded projects.
6. Facilitating trades. International organizations
and national governments could serve as information
clearinghouses, brokers, bankers, auctioneers, and so forth. In
some national economies and in the world economy, private
entities might also assume these roles.
7. Dealing with moral, environmental and economic
concerns. The usual concerns raised by trading may be
influenced, in an international context, by the variety of
cultures and stages of development of different nations. Some
nations have expressed the view that trading is a "license to
pollute" and therefore immoral. Experience with some debt-for
nature swaps (esp. Bolivia) suggests that trades for sink
resources may raise concerns about sovereignty and local
opposition to outright sales of sink development rights to other
nations. Some nations unfamiliar with trading may express the
view that it is simply a means to allow illicit emissions. There
are also sharp concerns that developed nations would "buy up" all
the allowances held by developing nations. One means for
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addressing these concerns would be to make allowances leasable
for a term of years rather than fully alienable.
8. Initial allocation of allowances: how will it be
set? How will the opportunity to trade affect the allocation-
setting process? Will it tend to ease or exacerbate "gaming"?
What scope would there be for varying the basis of allocation
across nations? What flexibility would there be for subsequently
modifying the stock of rights? The opportunity for modifications
in the allocation of rights among nations (as opposed to the
total stock) could discourage trading, because nations
anticipating the allocations to be renegotiated might fear that
selling some of their allowances would demonstrate that their
initial allocations were "too high" and should be reduced.
9. Use of empirical experience with international
trading to support discussion. Trading in goods, services,
currencies, debt-for-nature, under the Montreal Protocol, etc.
10. Documenting and predicting the advantages to
international trading. The advantages mentioned under national
trading must be considered in the international context.
11. Relationship to other international law and
international institutions.
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III. Common issues:
1. What would be the likely environmental and economic
benefits for the U.S. and the world of employing (a) the
comprehensive approach, (b) the trading approach, or (c) both? A
preliminary calculation could be undertaken to confirm that these
are likely to be desirable approaches. Then a more in-depth
study could be pursued, perhaps through an independent think
tank.
2. Although the benefits from these approaches are
probably greatest when they are universally adopted, universal
adoption is not absolutely necessary. For example, if full
adoption of the comprehensive and emissions trading approaches is
not forthcoming, an international target could be written in
terms of "net CO2 equivalent emissions," and then could allow
emitters to demonstrate compliance however they wished --
reducing other gases, enhancing sinks, purchasing extra
reductions abroad, innovating CO2 scrubbers, etc. -- so long as
the emitter demonstrated the efficacy of its chosen approach.
This would authorize both the comprehensive and emissions trading
approaches, but put the burden of proof on -- and gives
incentives to -- the emitter to demonstrate the alternative
approaches. Emitters would be influenced by the forum and the
process chosen for deciding whether an emitter has satisfactorily
demonstrated the efficacy of its approach.
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IV. Possible subgroup tasks:
1. Collect current information on measuring sources
and sinks of greenhouse gases; identify next steps needed to
measure and to monitor net emissions; estimate the costs (in time
and money) of achieving needed capabilities.
2. Design a comparative index of environmental impacts
of greenhouse gases, including warming and non-warming impacts.
3. Begin work on a model of greenhouse gas limits, for
the United States and selected other national (domestic)
applications, which apply only to CO2, or to several gases.
Assess economic and environmental results.
4. Begin work on models of trading: (a) Model of
greenhouse gas limits, with and without trading, for the United
States and selected other national (domestic) applications.
Scenarios: limits apply only to CO2, or to several gases; trading
is informal, or formal; trading involves sinks, or not; sales or
leases; expiration of allowances; etc. Assess economic and
environmental results. (b) Model of greenhouse gas limits, with
and without international trading. Scenarios: limits apply only
to CO2, or to several gases; nations trade, or private entities
trade; trading is informal, or formal; trading involves sinks, or
not; sales or leases; expiration of allowances; etc. Assess
economic and environmental results.
5. Develop the institutional underpinnings of
international trading: identify international entities that
could assist in monitoring and facilitating trading (e.g. stock
exchanges, agencies with relevant information (IEA? TFAP?) and
international instruments that might apply to such trading (e.g.
GATT). Identify who would trade. Issues of monitoring and
assuring compliance.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
WASHINGTON
MEMBER OF THE COUNCIL
September 14, 1990
MEMORANDUM FOR TASK FORCE ON ECONOMICS OF THE
DPC WORKING GROUP ON GLOBAL CHANGE
FROM:
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE Rd
SUBJECT:
Enclosed Draft
Here, at last, is what I hope will almost the final version
of our report. We have tried to do justice to the (relatively
few) comments we received as well as to changes in the literature
and context of which we are independently aware. I apologize for
missing our own deadline so badly -- the weeks after we received
your comments were rather busier than we had anticipated.
To facilitate your reacting to our (relatively few) changes,
we have used WordPerfect's red-line/strikeout capability. Please
concentrate on the changes we made and on the changes you think
should have been made in light of developments since March -- we
simply do not have time to fight any old fights again. If we are
to have a prayer of meeting our goal of publication near the
start of October, we'll need your major, substantive comments by
COB Thursday, September 20. This will enable us to make calls on
Friday to set up a principals-only meeting for the following
Monday (September 24) if serious disputes need to be resolved at
that level. We'll need the remainder of your comments by COB
Friday, September 21. Please supply suggested language whenever
possible. With your cooperation, we should be able to turn a
draft over to DOE on Tuesday, September 25.