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24342
EXTENSIONS OF REMARKS
July 30, 1968
of the Senate hearings on the appropria-
sources offered to youngsters of school
icated staff I have been able to answer
tions bill for the Department of Agricul-
age. Both the children themselves and
all the letters which flow daily into my
ture I am more intrigued with what I
the Nation will benefit if attention is
office and to keep abreast of action pend-
given to the educational needs of this
ing before the Ways and Means Commit-
find.
It seems that the North Dakota con-
age group before the problems become
tee on which I serve. But while I not
gressional delegation is pushing real hard
too damaging. In my own State of IIII-
claim to have discovered a panacea for
for the continuation of the "boondoggle"
nois, more specifically in the towns of
the earth's problems, I have become in-
contained in the act of 1965. In looking
Joliet, Bartonville, and Pekin, there are
creasingly aware of a very sensible ap-
in the big green book I find that it takes
public day classes offering services to
proach toward meeting quite a few of
56 pages to list the 3,976 payments to
deaf children. The programs in these
our most troublesome concerns.
farmers in that State of over $5,000. The
schools are good for the children enrolled
That approach is family planning and
State of North Dakota. according to the
in them. However, this does not take care
population control.
latest census, has 48,800 so-called com-
of the needs of children in the preschool
For years we have heard cries of alarm
mercial farms. This means that roughly
age group. As research has pointed out,
about the population explosion which
8 percent of North Dakota farms got
it is necessary that a deaf child start
nations such as India and China are ex-
payments over $5,000-a total of $29,-
receiving an education immediately after
periencing. It is a very real crisis.
659,000. This represents 0.3 percent of the
his hearing loss has been diagnosed. H.R.
prompting President Johnson to say
$1.1 billion which went out in the form of
18763 provides for the development and
that:
checks in excess of $5,000.
carrying out of experimental preschool
Next to the pursuit of peace, the really
Texas presents a very interesting pic-
and early education programs for handi-
great challenge to the human family is the
ture also. I have noted that the chair-
capped children so they would not have
race between food supply and population
to wait until they can be admitted to a
increase. That race is (today) being lost.
man of the House Agriculture Committee
is an outstanding Texan, and that the
school or class to start receiving the
And former President Dwight D.
State of Texas has four members on the
necessary preschool education which is
Eisenhower has said:
House Agriculture Committee-POAGE.
so vital to their development.
I have come to believe that the population
chairman. PURCELL, DE LA GARZA. and
In 1966 the Illinois Legislature re-
explosion is the world's most critical prob-
PRICE. It takes 329 pages in the big green
vised in a major way our school laws
lem.
book to list the 23,505 payments over
affecting handicapped children and
The problem of population growth is
$5,000. Texas, incidentally, has. accord-
produced in the process what is widely
skyrocketing, and in this report I intend
ing to the latest census, about 205,000
recognized as an exemplary law. It is to
to address myself to some of its aspects.
farms. This means 11 percent of Texas
be implemented fully in the 1969-70
The United States is itself not free of
farms got payments over $5,000-a total
school year at which time the local
the threat of overpopulation. Today we
of $292,834,000. This represents 28 per-
boards of education will be under a man-
have something like 200 million citizens.
cent of the $1.1 billion which went out in
date to provide for mentally handicapped
but within 32 years-by the year 2000-
the form of checks in excess of $5,000.
children between the ages of 5 and 21 and
we shall have 300 million Americans, a
Keep in mind, if you will, that a great
for physically and multiple-handicapped
50-percent increase. As the distinguished
portion of this money is distributed in
from 3 up.
former Chairman of the Tennessee Val-
checks of less than $5,000.
Just last week-July 24-the Illinois
The State of Indiana, which I am
Legislature completed unanimous action
ley Authority and the Atomic Energy
Commission, David E. Lilienthal, has
proud to represent, takes up only 16
on an addition to this basic act requir-
written:
pages of the big green book. It has 829
ing local boards and the State depart-
ment of public instruction jointly to pay
An additional 100 million people will un-
payments over $5,000 and has. according
to the census. 108,000 farms. This means
tuition and transportation up to $2,000
dermine our most cherished traditions. erode
our public services and impose a rate of tax-
that only 0.7 percent of Indiana farms
to private schools for any seriously
ation that will make current taxes seem
got payments over $5,000-or a total of
handicapped children whom it is not
tame. (Eventually) there comes a point
$6,697,000. This represents less than one-
practical to accommodate in the local
at which a change in quantity becomes a
tenth of 1 percent of the $1.1 billion
public schools.
change in quality-when we can no longer
which went out in the form of checks in
The developments are very heartening
speak of "more of the same." And another
excess of $5,000.
but, as will be clear. they still do not
100 million people will. I fear. make just that
So I can understand why the Mem-
cover any handicapped children under
change in the joy of life in America.
bers of the House and Senate from North
3 nor any retarded or seriously handi-
Sitting as I have on the tax-writing
Dakota and Texas are pushing so hard
capped under 5. Yet the evidence
Ways and Means Committee, which has
for the passage of the "fat cat" bill.
presented to the Committee on Educa-
responsibility for social security legisla-
tion and Labor indicates convincingly
tion, I have heard almost endless testi-
that services to these groups should be
mony to the effect that our national wel-
initiated. We in Illinois would welcome
fare costs are rising phenomenally.
HANDICAPPED CHILDREN'S EARLY
the opportunities offered under the
prompting me to wonder how we can take
EDUCATION ACT
Handicapped Children's Early Educa-
basic steps to arrest it. But the problem
tion Act to assist any competent agency
is by no means wholly financial; it is
to take initiative in this area.
emphatically human, a tragedy on un-
HON. JOHN N. ERLENBORN
wanted children and of parents whose
OF ILLINOIS
productivity is impaired by children they
IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
never desired. In the words of the late
POPULATION CONTROL AND FAMILY
Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.:
Tuesday, July 30, 1968
PLANNING
There is scarcely anything more tragic in
Mr. ERLENBORN. Mr. Speaker. as a
human life than a child who is not wanted.
cosponsor of this legislation, I would like
to take this opportunity to add my sup-
HON. GEORGE BUSH
Adding all this to the problems of pov-
port to that of my colleagues for H.R.
erty in cities and rural areas and to the
OF TEXAS
18763, and at the same time commend
increase in crime which many sociolo-
IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
Messrs. QUIE, CAREY. and DANIELS for
gists see related to overcrowding, I have
Tuesday, July 30, 1968
decided to give my vigorous support to
bringing this far-reaching and very
meaningful legislation to us. The great
Mr. BUSH. Mr. Speaker. even before
measures for population control in both
need for education of handicapped chil-
I took office in January of 1967 I heard
the United States and the world. Cer-
dren at the preschool level was doc-
people say that it was all a Congressman
tainly responsible religions have the right
umented by the many witnesses who
could do to keep up with his mail and his
to determine their doctrines, but for
committee work, much less try to think of
those of us who feel so strongly on this
testified in favor of this bill. It is neces-
solutions to the major ills of the world.
issue, the recent encyclical was most
sary that children at a very early age be
able to benefit from the educational re-
With the help of hard-working and ded-
discouraging.
July 30, 1968
EXTENSIONS OF REMARKS
24343
ABROAD: THE POPULATION TIME BOMB
In the period of greatest affuence the
partments-out of 65 in the State-give
Every day the world gains 180,000
world's richest city (New York) has ever
family planning information. and only
known, the welfare rolls keep growing at &
people: that is. 180,000 more people will
15 give birth control care. The regional
faster rate each year. The most dis-
be born today than will die. In a year's
Planned Parenthood office estimates that
heartening point of these statistics is that
time the total is a staggering 70 million,
nearly two-thirds are children under 18,
no more than 15 percent of the poor and
equal to the population of France. Bel-
growing up in an atmosphere of despond-
near-poor families in Texas have access
gium, and Holland combined. At the
ency and defeat.
to effective. medically supervised care
present rate. the population of the world
What that newspaper had to say about
that will give protection against un-
is expected to double within 35 years to
New York City applies to the entire na-
wanted pregnancies in Harris County.
a total of 7 billion people.
tion. The fastest-growing part of the
In short, the willingness for birth con-
These figures do not tell the horrifying
relief rolls everywhere is aid for depend-
trol information exists: it is just the
tale that overpopulation spins: of in-
ent children-AFDC: At the end of the
facilities which are lagging.
creasing poverty, of disease, of human
1968 fiscal year. a little over $2 billion
There are two persistent myths which
misery, and. worse. of starvation. Fam-
will be spent for AFDC, but by fiscal 1972
prevail with regard to family planning in
ine already stalks India and China with
this will increase by over 75 percent to
the United States. One holds that the
their mammoth populations. Before you
almost $3.7 billion. But these figures do
poor want children because it means ad-
go to bed tonight, 10,000 people around
not tell the intensely human side: that
ditional welfare funds for them. This is
the world-most of them children-will
the affected children are often unwanted,
patently untrue, for studies have shown
have died of starvation and malnutrition.
that two-thirds of them come from fam-
the poor to be aware of the fact that the
Some say that U.S. foreign aid can easily
ilies where the father is absent. and that,
increased cost of having another mouth
wipe out this tragedy if only it is applied
if past trends continue. they will pass on
to feed and another body to clothe and
in large enough quantities. But the re-
the curse of poverty to their children. It
shelter far exceeds the pittance they re-
spected former President of the World
has been shown that of all the families
ceive from public assistance. Rather. as
Bank, Eugene R. Black, offers a chilling
living in poverty. 33 percent have five
was mentioned above, the poor have more
contradiction:
children and 43 percent have six chil-
children than they can afford because
I must be blunt. Population growth
dren. Seventy-one percent of the non-
they do not have access to proper birth
threatens to nullify all our efforts to raise
white poor families have five or more
control information and devices.
living standards in many of the poorer
children. Poverty is a vicious trap into
The second myth is that Negroes do
countries.
which innocent youngsters should not
not want birth control, believing it to be
Birth control must come swiftly to
be placed.
a form of "genocide." On the contrary.
stave off the number of future mouths
We speak of these children as "un-
family planning has been growing in pop-
which will feed on an ever-decreasing
wanted": are they really so? Evidence
ularity among Negroes wherever it is
proportion of food. But it is by no means
from various studies indicates that this
available because our black citizens rec-
the only answer. The immediate re-
is indeed the case. One study-reported
ognize that they cannot hope to acquire
in "Family Planning, Sterility, and
a larger share of American prosperity
sponse to the problem of overpopulation
Population Growth." by Freedman,
without cutting down on births, just as
is more food. The years 1980-85 are the
Whelpton. and Campbell, 1959-revealed
the rest of the Nation must do. But they
critical time. If we cannot approach
that while only 6 percent of first preg-
have met with discrimination in these
feeding the world's people by then, no
nancies are unwanted, the figure rises
services as in other health services be-
program of improved agricultural pro-
cause they are dependent on public facil-
duction or population control will pre-
to 62 percent by the ninth pregnancy. A
vent the widescale starvation which will
Florida survey reported that 70 percent
ities-and those facilities have simply
then follow.
of the women going to public health
not been active in the area of birth con-
At the same time we are rushing to in-
maternity clinics did not want additional
trol. To provide medically sound and
children. This desire for smaller fam-
sympathetic birth control services would
crease the world's food supply. we must
also seek to promote information about
ilies is outweighed, however, by the ap-
end this unwarranted discrimination gap.
family planning and to provide those
pailing lack of information many
And as to the issue of whether or not
women have about family planning:
black Americans favor planning their
nations which request them with birth
frequently, mothers who finally learn of
families, we need only repeat the word
control devices. Such methods as the
birth control clinics and aids tell phy-
of the late Dr. King:
interuterine device-IUD-and the con-
sicians that they were previously un-
The Negro constitutes half the poor of the
traceptive pill, as well as other more
aware of such facilities and would have
nation. Like all poor, Negro and white, they
traditional practices, have met with a
used them if they had known. The
have many unwanted children. This is a cruel
less than totally successful response in
Denver Planned Parenthood Clinic re-
evil they urgently need to control.
For
the past few years. But until medical
ported that of the women accepting
the Negro, therefore, intelligent guides of
research provides better means for stem-
family planning are a profoundly important
contraceptive help, fully 89 percent had
ming overpopulation, we must make sure
ingredient in his quest for security and a de-
never before used its services. Indeed,
that these are available on a massive
cent life.
They do not welcome any so-
it is now estimated that about 5 mil-
scale to the people who need them and
lution which involves population breeding as
lion women want family planning help—
a weapon. They have instinctive sympathy to
want them. The United States and a few
but that only 700,000 actually receive
all who offer them fair opportunity to de-
Western European nations have the
such assistance through public and pri-
velop and advance as all other people in our
technological ability for mass production
vate sources.
society.
of this equipment as well as the capa-
Some statistics from closer to home
bility for birth control research. If we
The Federal Government, along with
especially dramatize the need for these
many State governments, has taken
cannot provide the underdeveloped
services. Mr. Norman Fleishman, execu-
world with such aid, no one will.
steps to accelerate family planning ac-
tive director of Planned Parenthood of
tivities in the United States, but we need
But let me impress upon you that the
Houston. reports that there are ap-
to do more. We have a clear precedent:
answer is neither birth control alone
proximately 377,000 women in Texas-
when the Salk vaccine was discovered.
nor increased food production alone; it
54,000 of them in Harris County alone-
large-scale programs were undertaken
is both. To quote the able former direc-
who are in their reproductive years and
to distribute it. I see no reason why sim-
tor of the Food and Agricultural Organi-
are in need of family planning help. But
ilar programs of education and family
zation. Mr. Binay Sen:
less than 41,000 are presently receiving
planning assistance-all on a voluntary
Population stabilization and accelerating
aid from the 15 Planned Parenthood
basis-should not be instituted in the
the rate of increase of food production in
centers in the State, or only a miserable
United States on a massive scope. It is
the developing countries are like the blades
10.8 percent of the total need. The big
imperative that we do so: not only to
of a pair of scissors. Neither can be effec-
stumbling block are local health depart-
tive without the other.
fight poverty at its roots, not only to cut
ments and public hospitals. which give
down on our welfare costs, but also to
AT HOME: THE HUMAN TRAGEDY
every kind of postnatal care but do not
eliminate the needless suffering of un-
Over a year ago, the New York Times
supply women with birth control infor-
wanted children and overburdened par-
noted:
mation and devices. Only 25 health de-
ents.
EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20506
June 26,1990
MEMORANDUM FOR TOM RATCHFORD
GENE WONG
BILL PHILLIPS
NANCY MAYNARD
425 "2
KARL ERB
THROUGH:
TOM WELCH Tom
SUBJECT:
PCAST Minutes for May 24-25, 1990
Attached are draft minutes of the PCAST meeting of May 24-
25, 1990. Please review them and provide your comments to me by
July 3, 1990. I also need a clean copy of the vugraphs used by
Dr. Maynard. Thanks for your assistance.
"h Hugh Stringer stopy
DRAFT
MINUTES
PRESIDENT'S COUNCIL OF ADVISORS ON SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY (PCAST)
MAY 24-25, 1990
WASHINGTON, D.C.
PCAST Members Attending: Dr. Allan Bromley; Dr. Bernadine Healy;
Dr. Solomon Buchsbaum; Dr. Charles Drake; Dr. Ralph Gomory; Dr.
Peter Likins; Dr. Thomas Lovejoy; Dr. Walter Massey; Dr. Daniel
Nathans; Mr. David Packard; Dr. Harold Shapiro.
OSTP Staff: Dr. William Phillips; Dr. Thomas Ratchford; Dr.
Eugene Wong; Dr. James Wyngaarden; Dr. Judith Bostock; Dr. Karl
Erb; Ms. Sarah Keegan; Dr. Nancy Maynard; Dr. Diane Weiss.
Department of Commerce: Honorable Thomas Murrin
Public: Approximately 20 people attended the open session.
1. The meeting agenda is at Enclosure 1.
Open Session 9:00 A.M. - 12:00 Noon, May 24, 1990
2. Dr. Bromley called the meeting to order and made introductory
remarks. He noted that the Federal Coordinating Council for
Science, Engineering and Technology was making progress in
organizing its work. He said that he had met on May 23, 1990 with
the FCCSET committee chairmen and vice chairmen. The committee
charters are nearing completion. Three committees plan to produce
reports in time for the FY92 budget cycle. The reports will
address: Global Change; High Performance Computing and
Communications; and, Math and Science Education. There is
considerable legislative interest in the output of the committees
with several members calling specifically in draft legislation for
FCCSET products. Dr. Bromley further noted that PCAST was an
important channel for private sector interface with FCCSET.
3. Dr. Bromley then turned to the first agenda item: an
information briefing on International Economic Competition. He
introduced the topic by noting that much progress in this area had
already been made within the government. He further noted that it
would be important to hear from PCAST. Since the area is so broad,
it was important first to look at the whole spectrum and then
concentrate on a few select areas. He then introduced Dr. Gomory
to present the briefing.
a. Dr. Gomory reinforced Dr Bromley's remarks. He said it
was important that, in the initial stages of discussion, the
Council should be open to discussion of any of the areas affecting
international economic competition. Later, when choosing areas for
actual work, the Council could be more selective.. He then
introduced Dr. Phillips who made a presentation based on the charts
DRAFT
at Enclosure 2.
b. On the subject of trade imbalances, Dr. Massey questioned
whether it was desirable to have surpluses everywhere. Dr. Shapiro
commented that a balance of surpluses and deficits is necessary to
assure continuance of world trade. Dr. Gomory noted that some
people think there is a problem with trade imbalances while others
do not.
C. Dr. Gomory noted that in dealing with the area of
international economic competition, Product competitiveness rather
than basic science competitiveness is to be emphasized.
d. In discussing the elements of competitiveness, Dr. Bromley
noted the supremacy of individual companies' capability to take
advantage of opportunities. He recommended Michael Porter's book
on the subject "The Competitive Advantage of Nations. " Dr. Gomory
agreed but feels that what government can do to help is centered
in other areas.
e. Dr. Bromley asked whether there was undue focus on new
discoveries to the neglect of evolutionary development. Mr.
Packard thought not. Dr. Gomory said few firms concentrate on
breakthroughs. Mr. Packard noted that takeover concerns acted to
drive firms to short term focus. Dr. Lovejoy noted that the short
term focus has environmental impact.
f. Dr. Bromley asked how important were amortization rules.
Dr. Shapiro indicated that they were extremely important. Dr. Wong
noted that it is difficult to maintain intellectual property
protection. Dr. Shapiro stated that we should focus on differences
between US policies and our competitors.
g. Dr. Bromley asked about the importance of patents. Mr.
Packard said it is the quality of patents that is important. He
suggested that patents should be broken down by industry. Dr.
Gomory agreed that we need a better measure of innovation than
number of patents.
h. Dr. Bromley said that an emerging technical report from
the Department of Commerce indicates that we are on a negative
trend line on breakthrough technologies. He introduced Secretary
of Commerce Murrin who noted that the NIST developed report,
"Emerging Technologies, A Survey of Technical and Economic
Opportunity,' nevertheless reflected a good interface with
industry. Secretary Murrin further noted that PCAST was uniquely
qualified to influence the situation.
i. Mr. Packard noted that the predominance of financiers as
heads of firms creates a problem for innovation.
j. Dr. Massey asked if "environment" meant global environment
with regard to availability of new scientific and engineering
knowledge. Dr. Gomory said yes, that the focus was on capturing
DRAFT
DRAFT
it for national advantage. Dr. Buchsbaum thought new knowledge was
readily available. Dr. Likins noted that competitiveness comes
with time -- getting there first. There is a need to keep some new
knowledge in house to maintain competitive edge. Dr. Shapiro
stated that many trading partners have different research
sociologies. We must decide whether we are in a better position
or not, that answer leading on to policy development. Dr. Massey
noted that the question also considered how to insure that US
companies take advantage of new technologies -- sometimes offered
but not taken.
k. On environment supportive to improvement of existing
product, the discussion reflected on the comparison with Japan.
Dr. Likins said that process improvement is as important as product
improvement. Dr. Gomory said the federal government should honor
excellence in manufacturing.
1. With regard to training of the technical labor force, Dr.
Bromley asked the panel to consider how to correct the lack of
technical competence in the middle sector. What is the right place
to train people to make the U.S. production competitive? Mr.
Packard reiterated his concern over the flow of business graduates
to the financial area for greater pay. The reward structure needs
to be corrected. He suggested that government could move more
prominent people in education, provide better research facilities
and add additional incentives for young people to enter science and
technological fields. Dr. Buchsbaum noted that the ratio of
engineers to production people on the floor in Japan is about 3 to
1 that in the US. Secretary Murrin added that not only are there
many more technical people at operating level in Japan but that
they are multi-talented, i.e. can do maintenance, operations,
programming. Dr. Likins said high school curricula can influence
the situation by eliminating the "general" track and increasing the
importance of the vocational track. Dr. Gomory noted that
government's ability to educate and to influence public opinion in
this area was extremely important.
m. Dr. Phillips reviewed the administration's competitiveness
initiatives in the FY91 budget. Mr. Packard noted a need to
increase the tax on short term capital gains to deter opportunists.
He also underscored the importance of reforming product liability
laws, removing barriers to research and innovative development, and
developing advanced technologies to meet civil and government
needs. Secretary Murrin noted the difficulty of influencing the
situation in the short term. The time factor associated with
getting legislation through Congress was too great. Mr. Packard
asked how any of these initiatives would help in competition with
the Japanese or Europeans. Dr. Shapiro answered that they were
part of many things we must do. Dr. Bromley noted that EC 92
actions were also important and that the focus should not be only
on Japan. Dr. Likins pointed out that increases in research were
good but follow through was also important.
n. Dr. Bromley asked if the Council would feel comfortable
DRAFT
DRAFT
offering an opinion to the President on alternative energy
technologies. There was general agreement from the members.
O. Dr. Borlaug asked how important was metric conversion to
competition. Secretary Murrin answered that it was a big issue
which needs more work.
p. Dr. Massey said the council should consider how to
increase interaction between universities, Federal labs and
industry. There is a need to avoid legislation that unduly
inhibits technology transfer.
q. In discussing possible PCAST initiatives in this area,
Mr. Packard commented that the US leadership position could not be
restored. He suggested an initiative to better prepare our young
people for working in and with other countries. Dr. Borlaug noted
the effectiveness of the Peace Corps in this area. Dr. Shapiro
stated the need to focus on leadership, wage rates and worker
quality of life -- the market would force the trade balance. Dr.
Healy stressed the need to make any initiative nationwide and to
maintain the federal partnership with state and local governments.
Dr. Bromley noted that with regard to improving access to what is
happening abroad, the Swedes and the French make much better use
of their embassies and consulates than we do. President Reagan's
initiative to put additional technologists into US embassies has
not been fully implemented. More needs to be done to convince the
State Department to improve our marketing capabilities.
4. After a short break, the PCAST turned to the next agenda item,
an information briefing on Global Environment and Natural
Resources. Dr Lovejoy introduced the topic by distributing an
article, "The Biological Diversity Crisis: A Challenge to
Science. (Enclosure 3). He noted that the article described the
significance of lost biological species in the context of loss of
knowledge. Over two tenths of one percent of all species are lost
each year. The challenge for the US is how to arrest the loss of
resources or develop the knowledge to do so. The US is the country
most concerned with biodiversity. There are serious questions
about the ability of tropical rain forest countries to set aside
areas for preservation. It is an economic issue. Some progress
has been made in terms of debt for nature swaps, most of which have
been privately funded.
a. Dr Likins raised the issue of the controversy surrounding
the construction of a new observatory which imperiled a species of
squirrel. He asked how one makes such trade offs. Dr Lovejoy
responded that the particular issue concerned unique biosystems on
mountain tops -- "mountain top Gallapagos islands". He noted that
the issue was not whether to build but how and how much. The issue
could have been avoided altogether had sufficient planning and
inventory been done before the fact.
b. Dr Nancy Maynard of OSTP made a presentation using the
slides at enclosure 4. She read the prologue from the National
DRAFT
hatever the grievances of the La-
the police riot that Chicago once had.
Cold War.
community-and it has them-a
"Bringing a new world order into being was heavily
in any renewal of the Soviet march toward reform. If
But anyone watching the riot on televi-
was no way to express them.
sion (or, for that matter, participating)
dependent on there being strong cooperation between
he comes back, it is likely to be to lead the parade-if
the United States and the Soviet Union in all parts of the
it can be resumed-rather than to seem to follow in
eover, it was clear from the tele-
learned that the law could be broken
with impunity.-They suffered no con-
globe," says a senior U.S. official. "But the Soviets just
Gorbachev's footsteps.
n pictures that the rioters were
her family heads who were seek-
sequences-but the city surely will.
obart Rowen
amily Planning, U.S. Policy and the Deaths in Bangladesh
he death toll has hit a shocking 125,000 in
power of the antiabortion lobby, normally sensi-
seas: 'If you use your own resources on abortion,
Third World through illegal abortions. Good
gladesh and may reach 200,000. But don't
ble politicians such as President Bush look the
you're ineligible for any grant from us for family
family planning could cut that figure in half. The
ne it all on the cyclone and floods. The
other way when poor mothers and fathers in the
planning,' said the PCC's Joseph Speidel.
PCC report notes that most demographers be-
"AID programs are plagued by the ghost of the
lieve that the world's population will triple
ster also has its roots in abject poverty,
Third World beg for modern contraceptive de-
ch is linked to environmental problems and
vices and training.
Reagan administration," said PCC Vice President
before it stops growing unless more couples
essive population growth.
The current crisis in Bangladesh gives added
Sharon Camp. "Reagan ideology claimed that
adopt some form of birth control by the end of
Sangladesh is a disaster-prone tiny corner of
urgency to a report on global population prob-
the 1990s.
1, suffering from degradation of the water-
lems sent this week to 300 members of Con-
Family planning advocates are not suggesting
d in the upper Himalayas that aggravates
gress by the Population Crisis Committee, a
The Agency for
using American government. money to finance
iodic flooding, creating vast numbers of land-
Washington research agency.
abortions abroad. They want AID to finance
poor. The per-capita income is a miserable
A key recommendation is that Congress boost
International
what is legal in both the United States and in
0 a year.
Agency for International Development funds for
most Third World countries. That includes fund-
it the same time, Bangladeshi families pro-
family planning from $322 million this year to
e an average of almost five children, an
$600 million next year and that AID scrap the
Development slowed the
ing a comprehensive family planning program
that will help couples obtain modern contracep-
rovement over six in the early '80s, but still
"open hostility" evidenced at the very top of the
high. About 115 million people-equal to
agency and return to the much bolder popula-
rate of Third-World
tives and teach them how to use them effective-
ut-half the U.S. population-are jammed into
tion-control programs it guided until midway
ly. They also want to educate Third World
area 1/65th the size of the United States.
population growth in the
women on the dangers of illegal abortions and
through the Reagan administration.
worst lies ahead: Bangladesh will nearly
By promoting the availability and use of mod-
generate sex education for adolescents in Africa
ble to 199 million by the year 2025, accord-
ern contraceptive techniques, AID helped slow
'60s and 70s.
and Asia.
to the World Bank.
the pace of population growth in the '60s and
The United States should restore itself as a
fisguided richer nations routinely pump
'70s. It was one of our real foreign aid success
world leader in the field of family planning. This
Iti-billions of loans into the Third World for
stories, notably in Thailand, Indonesia, Mexi-
population growth is a neutral factor in develop-
ment-rather than a threat to economic prog-
is an area where a Democratic leadership look-
nomic "development" and then ignore the
co-and Bangladesh.
ress, family health and the environment."
ing for issues has a real opening. Polls show that
tive pennies that are needed for family
But in 1984 President Reagan allowed then-
State Department official James Buckley, as
There is little doubt that Bush knows better.
the vast majority of Americans support funding
nning or reforestation.
But he has willingly sublimated lifeiong, on-the-
for family planning. Increasingly, environmental
World Bank statistics show that despite mon-
chief U.S. delegate to a population conference in
Mexico City, to establish a new and circum-
record views on the desirability of strong Amer-
organizations that shied away from entangle-
handouts, per-capita income in country after
ican leadership on this issue to an effort to
ments with population issues see the nexus
intry in Asia and Latin America is declining.
scribed American policy. Buckley decided that
between family planning and their own goals, as
th too many mouths to feed, there's no
no AID funds could be used to support any
appease the GOP right wing.
stery to the result.
foreign population-control agency if that agency
This head-in-the-sand policy needs a new and
illustrated in Bangladesh.
Routinely, we hand out condoms in American
engaged in any abortion-related activities.
urgent re-examination. The PCC estimates that
Sen. Mitchell, Speaker Foley: What are you
ssrooms these days. Yet because of the
"The Mexico City policy says to groups over-
1 million women lose their lives annually in the
waiting for?
ale $21
sed
ruture sale events.
Regular, Original and Former prices reflect offering prices which may not have
MARSDAB. TPS
12/6/9
February 20, 1991
Discussion Points for Meeting Between
Dr. Bromley and Dallas Peck Regarding the CEES
Mitigation Adaptation Research Strategies
Working Group
1. Existing MARS Working Group not well focused nor organized
a.
Subcommittee heads and chairman should meet
regularly as an Executive Committee
b.
An "Fy 91" charge to the Committee should provide
focus and activity guidelines for this year's efforts.
(1.) Need for and extent of contributory
research summaries
(2.) Priorities of focused research
(3.) Involvement of industrial, non-profit,
and international organizations
(4.) Identification of "new" focused research
funding initiatives for FY'93
(5.) Provide timetable/schedule
c. Provide a concise report ( 30 pp) on MARS
describing: the purpose, organization and elements
of the program; areas of focus; what is needed now
and in the future; and reference to what U.S. is
doing.
2. A vice-chairman of MARS is needed (possibly someone from EPA
or USDA).
3. Existing draft of the MARS budget report is only a catalog of
ongoing focused research within U.S. federal agencies related to
mitigation and adaptation. It should only be used internally and
not published. A tremendous amount of effort and additional
inputs are needed before it could go forward.
4.
Closer ties should be established with the other CEES
Committees and NAS groups working in this area, especially
socio-economics.
5.
Mitigation and adaptation are direct follow-ons from the Global
Change scientific and research activities. MARS should provide
the applied aspects of and implementation of new technologies
and procedures that will directly affect the public at all levels,
both nationally and internationally.
2
Phyllis Tilson Piotrow
World Population isis
foreword by
The United States Response
George H. Bush, Jr.,
U.S. Representative to the UN
PRAEGER SPECIAL STUDIES IN INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS AND DEVELOPMENT
The Praeger Special Studies program-
utilizing the most modern and efficient book
file 4-P-5
production techniques and a selective
worldwide distribution network-makes
available to the academic, government, and
business communities significant, timely
research in U.S. and international eco-
nomic, social, and political development.
Praeger Publishers New York Washington London
WORD
George h. Bush, Jr.
Few issues in the world have undergone such a rapid shift in public
attitudes and government policies over the last decade as the problems of
population growth and fertility control.
My own first awareness of birth control as a public policy issue came with
a jolt in 1950 when my father was running for the United States Senate in
Connecticut. Drew Pearson, on the Sunday before Election Day, "revealed"
that my father was involved with Planned Parenthood. My father lost that
election by a few hundred out of close to a million votes. Many political
observers felt a sufficient number of voters were swayed by his alleged contacts
with the birth controllers to cost him the election. The subject was taboo-not
only because of religious opposition but because at that time a lot of people
were unwilling to discuss in public what they considered a private matter.
Today, the population problem is no longer a private matter. In a world of
nearly 4 billion people increasing by 2 percent, or 80 million more, every year,
population growth and how to restrain it are public concerns that command
the attention of national and international leaders. The per capita income gap
between the developed and the developing countries is increasing, in large part
the result of higher birth rates in the poorer countries.
World Population Crisis: The United States Response recounts and analyzes
the events which mobilized the United States leaders to action. Dr. Piotrow
presents a story of determined and sometimes disruptive advocates, of
conscientious, careful scientists, of political leaders striving to reach a new con-
sensus, of vigorous officials building action programs. It is, above all, a story of in-
dividuals and institutions struggling to solve a new kind of worldwide problem
within the framework of individual choice and responsible government.
The population problem does not have easy answers. As a member of the
U.S. House of Representatives in the late 1960s, I remember very well how
disturbed and perplexed my colleagues and I were by this issue. Famine in
India, unwanted babies in the United States, poverty that seemed to form an
unbreakable chain for millions of people-how should we tackle these prob-
lems? I served on the House Ways and Means Committee. As we amended and
updated the Social Security Act in 1967 I was impressed by the sensible
approach of Alan Guttmacher the obstetrician who served as president of
Planned Parenthood. It was ridiculous, he told the committee, to blame
mothers on welfare for having too many children when the clinics and hospitals
they used were absolutely prohibited from saying a word about birth control.
So we took the lead in Congress in providing money and urging-in fact, even
requiring-that in the United States family planning services be available for
every woman, not just the private patient with her own gynecologist.
I remember another bill before the Ways and Means Committee. This one
successfully repealed the prohibition against mailing information about birth
vii
control devices or sending the devices themselves through the mails. Until 1970
Success in the population field, under United Nations leadershi
in turn,
the mailing of this information had been heaped in with the mailing of
determine whether we can resolve successfully the other great questions of
"pornographic" material.
peace, prosperity, and individual rights that face the world.
As chairman of the special Republican Task Force on Population and
Dr. Piotrow's study of evolving population policy, in the United States
Earth Resources, I was impressed by the arguments of William H. Draper, Jr.
and in the United Nations, is necessarily a story without an ending. It is not a
that economic development overseas would be a miserable failure unless the
blueprint for the future, but rather a search for the meaning of the past, an
developing countries had the knowledge and supplies their families needed to
exploration of the means, the arguments, the individuals and the events which
control fertility. Congress constantly pressed the rather nervous federal agen-
did, in fact, influence U.S. policy making over the last decade and a half. But
cies to get on with the job. General Draper continues to lead through his
the lessons suggested here-about leadership, about innovation, about national
tireless work for the UN Population Fund.
and international organizations-surely have continuing application for the
Congressional interest and support in population problems was remark-
future. Dr. Piotrow was in a unique position to observe and even participate in
ably bipartisan-including Jim Scheuer, Ernest Gruening, Bob Taft, Bill Ful-
many of the actions taken.
bright, Joe Tydings, Bob Packwood, Alan Cranston, and many others from both
I worked with Phyllis Piotrow on some of these issues. This book is far
parties and every section of the country. Presidents Johnson and Nixon both
too modest about her own efforts, for she has contributed significantly herself
were seriously concerned about the problem, too. In fact, early in 1969
to public understanding and support of population activities through her work
President Nixon delivered an official Message on Population to Congress. In the
with the Population Crisis Committee. Certainly the private organizations, like
federal agencies there were at first only a few determined individuals like R. T.
the Population Crisis Committee, Planned Parenthood-national and interna-
Ravenholt in AID and Philander P. Claxton, Jr. in the State Department who
tional-, the Population Council, the Population Reference Bureau, the Popula-
were willing to urge their superiors ahead. Now the recommendations of the
tion Institute, Zero Population Growth, and others, have played a major role in
Commission on Population Growth and the American Future, chaired by John
assisting government policy makers and in mobilizing the United States response
D. Rockefeller 3rd, have urged many agencies to take on a larger role and have
to the world population challenge that is described in this volume.
called for the U.S. government to adopt a national population policy.
When I moved to the United Nations in 1971 as United States Ambassa-
George Bush
dor, I found that the population problem was high on the international agenda,
U.S. Representative to the United Nations
though lacking some of the urgency the matter deserves. The General Assembly
had designated 1974 as World Population Year with a major conference of
governments scheduled. The UN Fund for Population Activities, which has
raised some $50 million, now stands ready to help agencies and governments
develop appropriate programs. It is quite clear that one of the major challenges
of the 1970s, the Second United Nations Development Decade, will be to curb
the world's fertility.
The United Nations population program, including the Fund and special-
ized agencies, stands today at the threshold of international impact. The
problem has been recognized; the organizations exist; the resources are at hand.
But policy making on the international level no less than on the national one is
an educational process. In developing the programs needed, the public as well
as government leaders learn from one another. New technologies lead to new
policies and laws, new public and private values, new insights into our own
problems as well as those of others. We all proceed by trial and error. Will we
learn fast enough from one another and with one another how to defuse the
population bomb?
One fact is clear: in a world of nearly 4 billion people, with some 150
independent governments, myriad races, religions, tribes and other organiza-
tions, major world problems like population and environmental protection will
have to be handled by large and complex organizations representing many
nations and many different points of view. How well we and the rest of the
world can make the policies and programs of the United Nations responsive to
the needs of the people will be the test of success in the population field.
viii
ix
file 4-P-5 Nancy
POPULATION
as a cause of
GLOBAL WARMING
HOW ARE POPULATION
HOW DOES POPULATION SIZE
AND GLOBAL WARMING LINKED?
AFFECT CO2 EMISSIONS?
Global warming is the rise in world temperature caused by
reenhouse gases, which in turn are caused by human
CO2 comprises about half the total of the greenhouse
ctivities, by people. Global warming represents the first time
gases. Approximately three-fourths of excess CO2 emissions
in history that people have started to alter the worldwide
comes from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas),
mechanisms upon which our economies, societies, and
with one-fourth from deforestation. It is people who are
natural systems depend.
burning fossil fuels and destroying our forests.
The main greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide (CO₂),
methane, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), nitrous oxide, and
low level ozone, all of which are created or influenced by
human activities. These gases form an atmospheric blanket
FOSSIL FUEL
12
keeping some of the Earth's excess infrared heat from escap-
CONSUMPTION
ing An international agreement will significantly reduce
(in billions of tons
of coal equivalent)
future CFC use, leaving CO2 and methane as the most
important of the gases.
WORLD
Although scientists may disagree about the rate of global
POPULATION
warming, they are in practically unanimous agreement that
(in billions)
5
rising quantities of greenhouse gases contribute to rising
world temperatures.* As measured by air bubbles trapped in
2.5
3
Arctic ice going back 160,000 years, CO2 levels have risen
1.6
and fallen as world temperatures rise and fall. In the past
1
century, with increasing industrialization and a rapidly rising
1900 1950 1986
world population, CO2 levels have increased by one fourth,
1900 1950 1986
and they are expected to double by the middle of the next
century from their pre-industrial levels, with estimated tem-
Worldwatch Institute
perature increases of from 5 to 8 degrees F.
Scientists' projections of the rate of global warming may vary, depend-
Scientists show charts illustrating the sharp increase in
ing upon their estimates of the ability of oceans and clouds to absorb
fossil fuel consumption which has accompanied the rapid
excess CO2 and heat.
rise in world population and the similarity of the curves
showing increases in CO2, methane, and population. A
CO₂ (ppm)
CH₄ (ppm)
larger population in the industrialized countries means more
340
1.4
people wanting more energy to heat their homes, run their
businesses, and drive their cars. The more people burning
ssil fuels, the greater the emissions of greenhouse gases into
330
1.3
ne atmosphere, which causes global warming
Although the less developed countries currently account
for only one-fourth of world fossil fuel emissions, as they
industrialize and increase their energy demands for their
320
1.2
rapidly growing populations, they may pass the more devel-
oped countries in fossil fuel emissions.
CH₄ (right scale)
310
1.1
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
5
300
1.0
WORLD
POPULATION
4
(in billions)
CO2 (left scale)
290
0.9
3
Source: United Nations Environmental Program
280
0.8
2
1725
1750
1775
1800
1825
1850
1875
1900
1925
1950
1975
Year
1
ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATIONS OF CO₂ and CH₄
World Resources Institute (Speth's merging of data on carbon dioxide,
C02, from Stauffer and on methane, CH4, from Neftel)
Growth of human population (black line) and levels of methane in the
tmosphere (dots) have followed one another closely for centuries.
IS DEFORESTATION
rotting vegetation and an increase in the population of
AFFECTED BY
termites, producers of methane.
POPULATION GROWTH?
HOW DOES POPULATION SIZE
Two billion of the world's people still depend on fuelwood
AFFECT METHANE EMISSIONS?
for cooking and heating, and three-fourths of them are
cutting wood faster than it is growing back. As their popula-
Methane, the second most important greenhouse gas after
tion grows their need for fuelwood increases, with the
CO2, is some 20 to 30 times more effective per molecule at
consequent deforestation, soil erosion, and in dry areas,
absorbing infrared radiation than CO2. Methane, like CO2,
desertification.
has tracked temperature closely for the past 160,000 years,
In other Third World countries, as the increasing popula-
and the graph showing methane increase closely resembles
tion needs more food, tropical forests are destroyed to
the graph charting population increase. Methane has
extend the land for growing crops or grazing cattle. In Brazil
increased by an alarming 11 percent in the last decade.
forests are being destroyed at the rate of a football field every
Approximately half the methane released into the atmo-
second, and satellite photos show thousands of fires each
sphere is related to human activities and comes primarily
day. Once a tropical forest is gone it is impossible to replace.
from rice paddies and the intestines of cattle. One-third of
Ironically. the cleared land does not sustain agriculture for
the world's people eat rice as the main staple in their diet.
long, with soil erosion and flooding often resulting.
Thus in countries like India, China, and Bangladesh, the
Whether trees are burned or cut and left to rot, CO₂ is
more people, the greater the need for rice, and in the
released into the atmosphere and, to make matters worse,
Americas and Africa, the more people consuming beef and
the ability of the trees to absorb CO2 is lost. Deforestation
milk, the more cattle, and the more methane from both
also results in increases in methane emissions, partly from
sources.
WHY IS THE CONNECTION BETWEEN
IF THIRD WORLD PEOPLE
POPULATION AND GLOBAL WARMING
USE SO LITTLE ENERGY, WHY WORRY
OFTEN OVERLOOKED?
ABOUT POPULATION GROWTH
IN THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES?
Until recently it may have been overlooked just because
people hadn't thought about it. Although most scientists are
At current rates world population is growing by 90 million
well aware of the connection, a few may overlook it or may
people a year, and over 90 percent of that increase will be in
assume the connection is so obvious there is no need to
the Third World, where the environmental support base is
mention it. Increasingly, however, top scientists at interna-
the most fragile. Most growth will be in the urban areas.
tional meetings speak loudly and clearly about the popula-
Studies indicate when people move from rural to urban areas
tion-global warming connection.
their energy needs multiply many times.
Population may also be overlooked because it has become
Third World countries (excluding China) added only
controversial. The world has dramatically changed from the
about 15 percent of world fossil fuel-derived CO2 in 1985,
Biblical times when God said, "Be fruitful and multiply." Yet it
but the balance will shift as these nations develop, industrial-
is difficult to modify our ideas even though the planet is
ize, and increase their energy use. Some Third World coun-
threatened and to realize that what was once seen as positive
tries may remain poor, but others have economies which
and valuable, i.e., many children for the family, church,
have started to boom. Karl Gawell of Zero Population
nation, or tribe, may become detrimental and destructive
Growth projects that the population added between now
when in excess.
and 2030 in the less developed countries will contribute
twice the CO2 emissions as that from the population added
in the industrialized world for the same period.
In 1985 China contributed about 10 percent of world CO2
WHY WORRY ABOUT POPULATION
emissions, with its share having rapidly increased in the last
GROWTH WHEN THE RATE OF
decade. Its share will continue to jump upward as China
POPULATION GROWTH
moves toward its goal of quadrupling output by 2000, using
HAS DECLINED?
its ample coal supplies in the process. One-fifth of the
world's people are Chinese.
In the late 1960s the world population growth rate peaked
Many environmentalists believe the industrialized nations
at 2 percent per year, which indicated a doubling of world
must provide leadership and bear the larger burden in
population in 35 years. Current projections are that world
protecting world environment, not only in clearing up some
population will double in 39 years. The annual growth rate
of their own problems, but also in helping the developing
has fallen from 2 percent to 1.7 percent, so the RATE has
countries grow economically while preserving their environ-
declined slightly, but world population is still rapidly increas-
ment, providing them with the latest energy efficient technol-
ing and may exceed 10 billion well before the middle of the
ogy, and helping them limit their population.
next century. In addition, the population base is larger and
an increased number of the world's young people are just
DO THIRD WORLD WOMEN
entering their child bearing years. The greatest growth of
EVEN WANT TO LIMIT FAMILY SIZE?
world population in terms of absolute numbers lies ahead.
Growth rates vary widely from country to country, with
Werner Fornos, president of the Population Institute,
six to eight children per family in much of Africa, the Middle
speaks of 500 million Third World women who want no
East, and Western Asia, whereas rates are near stabilization
more children. Other women may want more children, but
in many of the industrialized countries.
they want to space them better Yet they cannot get the
information and supplies they need.
The leaders of 15 African nations have enthusiastically
IF POPULATION IS NEAR STABILIZATION
endorsed population programs for their people, but they
IN THE INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES,
have no money to fund them. Some poor countries can
WHY IS IT A PROBLEM?
spend no more than $1 per person per year for health care.
It is ironic that, when requests from Third World countries
The United States is the fastest growing of the industrial-
for fertility control assistance are at an all time high, the
ized countries, partly because of immigration and our high
United States has ceased its funding of the United Nations
teenage birthrate. Rapidly growing areas such as California
Population Fund.
experience severe water shortages and serious air and water
pollution. Although the U.S. contains only 5 percent of the
HOW CAN JUST A FEW DEGREES
world's population, our greenhouse gases emissions are 24
OF TEMPERATURE CHANGE
percent of the world's total! Each additional person born in
ALTER OUR CLIMATE?
the U.S. adds to fossil fuel emissions, and the average U.S.
citizen uses 200 times the energy of the average citizen of
Small changes in temperature have big consequences for
Bangladesh.
the world's climate. The total global warming since the peak
of the last ice age was only 9 degrees F, a change that shifted
excess CO2, as well as the sulfur dioxide emissions causing
the Atlantic Ocean inland by about 100 miles and created
acid rain. We also need to develop and introduce renewable
the Great Lakes. Previous shifts in the Earth's climate have
energy supply technologies such as solar, wind, biofuels, or
been accompanied by waves of extinctions of plant and
even a newer, safer nuclear fuel.
nimal life.
Population growth, the third variable, is easily amenable to
By 2100 temperature could increase by 9 to 18 degrees F
change. It simply means providing more of the world's
economic development is rapid, population continues its
women with family planning information and supplies.
current growth, fossil fuel use increases, and forest destruc-
Countless studies show a vast unmet need for family plan-
tion continues unabated. Alternatively, temperatures could go
ning assistance throughout the world.
up no more than 2½ degrees F if we cut back on fossil fuel
use, ban chlorofluorocarbons, reverse deforestation, and limit
HOW CAN WE REDUCE
population growth.
As most scientists believe that global warming has already
WORLD POPULATION GROWTH,
started, their goal is to slow down the rate of warming to give
AND WHAT ARE THE COSTS?
us time to better adjust to changes in climate and to improve
the survival chances of species which can only migrate
It would be morally and fiscally irresponsible to ignore the
slowly.
world's population growth while combatting environmental
degradation and global warming Just recently figures on
WHAT CAN BE DONE TO SLOW DOWN
population increase have been revised upward by several
THE RATE OF GLOBAL WARMING?
organizations studying demographics.
The World Bank projects a stabilization of world popula-
Global warming poses one of the biggest problems ever
tion at about 11 billion, but only if there is greater worldwide
faced by humankind and will require unprecedented coop-
family size limitation by the use of birth control in the near
eration at the international level. We should take measures
future. The United Nations Population fund's statistics show
now to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases as prevention
the world's population could almost triple to 14 billion in a
will cost far less than a cure, and a complete cure is probably
century unless there is much wider use of contraception.
unobtainable.
The United Nations Population Fund estimates that, if $2
First we must recognize that humans are both the cause
billion more were dedicated each year to family planning,
and the solution. The 20th century has witnessed explosive
contraceptive use would rise from 465 million couples today
rowth in standard of living, energy use, and population size.
to 730 million by 2000, and to 1.2 billion by 2025. This
These are the three main variables affecting quantity of
change in contraceptive use from 45 percent of world coup-
greenhouse gases.
les to 71 percent by 2025 would result in an eventual
Standard of living in many countries has risen along with the
stabilizing of the world's ranks at 10.2 billion people. Total
world economy, which today is 20 times larger than it was
current public and private expenditures for Third World
in 1900. The World Resources Institute estimates that by the
family planning is $3 billion, so an additional $2 billion is
middle of the next century our global economy of $13
tiny compared to the costs of major energy conversions, or
trillion will be five times as large as it is today. It will be
shoring up our seacoasts, which is estimated at $111 billion.
impossible for world environment to be sustained if the
world's people. all aspire to western living standards and if
ours continues to rise, unless there are dramatic improve-
BESIDES GLOBAL WARMING,
ments in energy use and a marked slowdown in population
ARE THERE OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL
growth.
PROBLEMS AFFECTED BY
As it is ethically difficult to dissuade others from aspiring
POPULATION?
to high living standards, changing the first variable is prob-
lematic. Energy use, however, is a critical variable and allows
Almost every environmental woe is directly or indirectly
considerable room for improvement. Currently the U.S. is
related to excess population growth: deforestation, soil ero-
the least energy efficient of the industrialized nations, and
sion, desertification, acid rain, rising sea levels, depleted
even with recent improvements in energy efficiency, the
aquifers, species depletion, and land, air, and water pollution.
Japanese and West Germans still produce twice as much
Our planet is sick, and we are responsible.
economic output per unit of energy as we do. Since two-
The historian Arnold Toynbee, who studied the rise and
thirds of U.S. greenhouse gases emissions comes from the
fall of civilizations, stated that civilizations would continue to
transportation and electric utility sectors, taxing gasoline and
prosper if they could make the necessary changes to over-
strengthening gas mileage standards would cut down on
come the challenges they faced; otherwise they declined.
gasoline use and hence on ground level ozone and CO2
The difference now is that not just one nation or one
emissions. Converting inefficient coal-burning electric utility
civilization is at stake, but our entire planet. Will we have the
plants to natural gas or alternative fuels would also reduce
wisdom and the will to meet this challenge?
R. CARR
BOX 40041
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20016
OFFICIAL USE
UNCLASSIFIED
ONLY
March 13, 1991
PREPARATORY COMMITTEE FOR THE 1992
UN CONFERENCE ON ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT
POPULATION/DEMOGRAPHIC ISSUES
Agenda Item #
POSITION PAPER
BACKGROUND/ISSUE:
In the years since the 1972 Conference in Stockholm, the
inextricable linkage between the environment and development
has become clear. As populations grow, the demands for food,
fiber, transport and shelter increase, often leading to
greater pollution emissions, use of pesticides and
fertilizers, and accumulation of waste.
Participants at the International Conference on Population
in Mexico City in 1984 agreed that the principal aim of
social, economic and human development
...
is to improve the
standards of living and quality of life of the people." On
this same occasion, the United States explicitly recognized
the seriousness of environmental and economic problems and
their relationship to social realities.
In today's world, population growth is most accelerated in
those areas least able to cope with it. While there is not a
one-to-one correlation between environmental degradation and
population growth, it is clear that economic development lags
tremendously, and environmental degradation is severe in most
areas of rapid population growth. In Africa, where population
is increasing at 2.9 percent annually, deforestation has
caused the loss of more than five percent of forests and
woodlands during the past decade. In South America, where
population is increasing at 1.9 percent annually, more than
seven percent of forests and woodlands were deforested in the
1980's. Deforested land in the tropics is often unsuitable
for pasture or cropping, the uses to which it is usually put.
The result is rapid degradation of the land, which sometimes
leads to desertification and loss of arable land.
Significant declines in mortality accompanied by continued
high fertility have led to rapidly growing and youthful
populations in much of the developing world. Forty percent of
the populations of developing countries are under age 15 and
lack training for the work place. They will soon enter job
markets ill-prepared to accomodate them. The rural poor and
- 2 -
unemployed migrate to the cities, where demands for services
grow rapidly. Governments at all levels, without adequate
economic development, lack the resources to provide the
services demanded by burgeoning populations. Children have
the right to be born wanted, both by their families and by
societies which are prepared to make available adequate health
care, food, housing, education and job opportunities.
Governments have obligations to foster the provision of these
vital services through policies which support free markets and
the private sector.
The report of the World Commission on Environment and
Development, in 1987, focused on the concept of "sustainable
development." It is clear that population growth must be
slowed to prevent a continuing decline in quality of life and
further environmental degradation in many developing
countries. The environment and sustainable economic
development are inextricably linked to population issues.
Problems in any of these areas cannot be effectively addressed
without recognizing this linkage and effectively addressing
population issues.
RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF THE ISSUE TO THE UNITED STATES:
This issue is of medium importance to the United States.
The United States is the major donor of development
assistance for international voluntary family planning
programs, and of numerous other forms of development
assistance, including those which pertain. to the promotion of
sound environmental and developmental policies. U.S. foreign
policy recognizes that the environment and sustainable
economic development are inextricably linked to population
issues. U.S. policy therefore favors a balanced consideration
of the relationships between rapid population change, the
environment and development. An appropriate and balanced
consideration of these linkages can best guide U.S. foreign
policies and programs in these areas.
UNITED STATES POSITION:
The United States has explicitly recognized the
seriousness of environmental and economic problems and their
relationship to social realities. A balanced and appropriate
consideration of population issues should accompany any
thorough discussion of the environment and development. Rapid
demographic change, in particular, may have a profound impact
on environmental and developmental policies and programs.
- 3 -
The United States supports voluntary international family
planning programs, programs to promote sound environmental
stewardship, and numerous other programs and policies intended
to promote sound economic development.
LANGUAGE TO BE SOUGHT IN RESOLUTION OR DECISION:
Balanced language which recognizes the relationships
between population, the environment and development should be
sought wherever appropriate in resolutions or decisions.
LANGUAGE TO BE AVOIDED IN RESOLUTION OR DECISION:
Language which commits the U.S. to new expenditures or to
the support of new programs should be avoided in resolutions
or decisions.
DRAFT LANGUAGE FOR RESOLUTION OR DECISION:
None is explicitly proposed at this time. See talking
points.
TALKING POINTS/STATEMENT:
o
Rapid population growth often leads to acute shortages of
food, water, housing, health services and education, and
to widespread poverty and environmental degradation. This
is especially true where economic and environmental
policies are unsound. Unchecked rapid population growth
can lead to debilitating debt, economic stagnation and
political instability.
O
Mortality must be reduced to improve the quality of health
and life. High mortality rates among mothers and their
children, in particular, require focussed program
strategies. It has been shown that decreases in infant
mortality rates, through health programs specifically
targetted for women and children, lead to lowered birth
rates. Government policies encouraging increased health
and family planning services will better enable
individuals to choose family size, to space children, and
to care for children.
O
The United States supports voluntary family planning
programs. The private sector should be enlisted, as much
as possible, to provide needed health, family planning and
educational services.
- 4 -
Increased information, education and communication
regarding population dynamics will lead to a better
correlation of economic development strategies with
population growth. Increased information and education on
family planning and child spacing will lead to more
widespread and effective practices.
The continuing development, distribution and marketing of
safe, effective and appropriate contraceptive methods is
essential to achieving sustainable population growth
within resource limitations.
O
The status and roles of women are changing rapidly in most
societies as they become a recognized part of the economic
base of the family. Women have traditionally borne
considerable responsibilities in agricultural societies
and played important roles in resource management. It is
important to emphasize the linkage between enhancing the
socio-economic status of women and reduced fertility.
Aging societies require policies and services to ensure
adequate support is available for the aged. Where the
financial base is provided to care for the elderly, they
will be less dependent on their children and the need to
have larger families will decrease.
O
Rapid rural-to-urban migration, international migration,
and urbanization create significant developmental and
environmental stresses in most instances. Sound national
policies which provide more broadly distributed economic
opportunities and services can alleviate these stresses.
Since natural increase is the main contributor to urban
population growth, slowing population growth can also
serve to alleviate these stresses.
BUDGETARY IMPLICATIONS:
None.
- 5 -
March 13, 1991
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DOI/Director, International Affairs: KWashburn
(cleared 3-13-91) KW/DIA
NOAA/Off. Ch. Scientist: DCottingham (cleared 3-13-91) DC/DMA
DOE: TWilliams (on travel March 11-15)
AID/S&T/EN: JKamen (cleared 3-11-91) JKIDBA
AID/S&T/POP: SClark (cleared 3-12-91) SC/DBA
AID/PRE: SHammam (cleared 3-13-91) SEXIPMA
IO/D: WMarsh (cleared 3-12-91) WWW/DPA
OES/ENV: GUsery (cleared 3-11-91) GUIDIZA
OES/EHC: ESavage (cleared 3-12-91) ESIDBA
OES/EHC: PWest (on travel March 11-15)
Population tral
april 2,1991 MP
Dear Mr. President:
In our lifetimes we have seen the second, third, fourth, and fifth billionth person added to
the world's population. This year, the net increase will exceed ninety million. At this
rate, inevitably the number of people on earth will double in the next thirty-nine years.
Over ninety percent of the growth is occurring in the less developed countries, those
least capable of coping with such numbers.
Burgeoning population growth, insidious and pervasive as it is, exacerbates all of our
global, social, environmental, political, and economic ills, and figures predominantly in
the sub-human standard of living suffered by hundreds of millions of people. Things
can only worsen under the pressure of more and more people. Many of the rapidly
growing nations are already burdened with a predominance of young people just
entering their childbearing years and the labor market at the same time. Unable
currently to provide adequately for the present populous, the inevitable surge in growth
and unemployment alone will create worse problems for these countries.
We have now reached the greatest human predicament of all: How to provide a proper
life for twice as many people in the next 39 years without destroying the environment
and depleting the finite resources upon which all living organisms depend? The
demographic projections are certain without significant action, and our scientists and
news reports have provided abundant evidence of how sensitive our planet is to
degradation from overuse and misuse of nature's resources.
From small villages through national states and the international community,
interdependence is intensifying as more and more people put ever-increasing demands
sidnaft
aprul2.1991
upon each other and upon the planet. Urbanization, for example, produces its own set
of problems. Worldwide, we are moving from a predominantly rural species to an urban
society. Within the next twenty years, fifty percent of us will live in urban areas. Africa's
urban population is growing at five percent a year, representing a doubling time of only
fourteen years. By 2025, Africa's urban dwellers will number three times those of North
America. Unfortunately, the fastest growing segment of large cities is the slums. The
six urban mega-cities of over fifteen million people have reached a size off the scale of
human experience. Their management takes us into uncharted territory. Urban
economies of scale are dwarfed by problems of congestion and infrastructures are
overtaxed into a near inoperative state.
Unemployment, illiteracy, poverty, disease and poor health, debt, and inadequate food
and housing are among the conditions which are exacting heavy tolls in human
suffering. The fallout includes political instability, national insecurity, and ebbing
personal well-being as we know it.
Environmental ethics and democratic processes have low priority where destitution and
explcitation prevail. Increasing numbers of people do not represent expanding markets
when they are fully dependent consumers without incomes or other basic necessities
required to participate in local economies and to develop their productive talents.
Currently, the less developed countries, suffering the most from burgeoning population
growth, comprise forty percent of the USA trade. It is in our nation's best interest to help
these nations cope with the impact of increasing populations. We need them as viable,
stable trading partners.
Population growth does not per se cause all of the world's scourges. It does compound
What
M
and intensify them and render their remedies more difficult and more costly. Each day
that passes allows the situation to worsen and, without greater attention to this problem,
complicates the cost and difficulty of eventual remedies.
We cannot allow short-term economic and political agendas to deter our attack on the
fundamental problem of coping with increasing numbers of people. This condition
should form the context in which basic decisions are made and priorities assigned.
Slowing the rate of growth in the world's population now will lessen the aggravation of
other problems and render their solutions somewhat more manageable.
Partly due to the leadership of the United States through international financial and
technical assistance in this area, several countries have succeeded in slowing their rates
of growth (although the total number continues to increase at compounding rates). With
the strong determination of their leaders, the commitment of local funding, and with
technical and financial assistance from international donor agencies and non-
governmental organizations, demographic projections for several countries, while still
seriously threatening, are less than they might have been without national programs that
provide the education and means to limit family size. These advancements have been
achieved under widely diverse political, religious, cultural, and economic conditions and
clearly have inspired others to be more aggressive in the development of their own
programs.
In sum, the problems of unprecedented world population growth must be placed at the
top of our global agenda.
Family planning is not the only solution. But, it constitutes a well documented, direct,
Wnapt hj april
cost effective approach. Raising literacy rates, employment, enhancement of the role of
women, and other related benefits contribute in some measure to the reduction in family
size over time, but family planning has proven to be the single most effective approach.
Thanks in part to United States leadership and technical and financial assistance in the
past, we now know what is required, what works, how to provide it, what it costs, how
long it takes, and how to assess its effectiveness.
The urgency with which the world now wishes to address this problem has risen
substantially as the numbers have mounted and successful models developed.
Our review of the available evidence clearly indicates that what was once thought to be
an impossible task now appears do-able if adequate resources are provided. And, the
needed support on a global scale is certainly a manageable amount. In addition to
financial resources, leadership is needed. We urge you to provide that leadership to the
world by expressing your sense of urgency about the problem, your confidence in the
possibility of solution, and your recommendation that Congress, the international donor
agencies we support, and other donor countries join in an aggressive, fresh initiative to
slow population growth. With an estimated price tag of approximately $10 billion, a
challenge grant from the United States to encourage the world's donor community may
well provide the stimulus needed to solve this most fundamental problem of all time.
[3] From: William W. Snyder at NCMC 4/3/91 7:37PM (5942 bytes: 151 1n)
To: Jules Blake at OSTP, Jennifer Bond at OSTP, Sara Bowden at OSTP,
D. Allan Bromley at OSTP, Jackeline J. Clawson at OSTP, Alicia K. Dustira at
OSTP, Karl A. Erb at OSTP, Barbara Ferguson at OSTP, Ruth Fisher at OSTP,
Beverly Fleisher at OSTP, Priscilla Foti at OSTP, Damar Hawkins at OSTP,
Donald A. Henderson at OSTP, Janice Howell at OSTP, Michele Huguelet at OSTP,
Paul Huray at OSTP, Kara Kelly at OSTP, Rachel E. Levinson at OSTP, James Ling
at OSTP, Nancy G. Maynard at OSTP, Amy Mincey at OSTP, Marian Nida at OSTP,
Steve Olson at OSTP, Pierre Perrolle at OSTP, William D. Phillips at OSTP,
Don Pryor at OSTP, Margaret Quinlan at OSTP, Virginia M. Rosell at OSTP,
Tom Russell at OSTP, Sally Sherman at OSTP, Mary B. Suit at OSTP,
William Whyman at OSTP, Eugene Wong at OSTP, Kenneth P. Yale at OSTP
To mailing list: #ALL
Subject: PCAST Agenda
Message Contents
** This is the latest April PCAST Agenda -- Changes **
** may still occur during the meeting. If you have **
** any questions, please call the PCAST office at
**
** 395-5101. Thank you.
**
(Note: Format changes have been made to make this
document compatible with CC:MAIL)
PRESIDENT'S COUNCIL OF ADVISORS
ON
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
APRIL 4-5, 1991
AGENDA
THURSDAY, APRIL 4, 1991
OPEN SESSION 9:00 AM - 11:00 AM
CONFERENCE ROOM
COUNCIL ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY
722 JACKSON PLACE, NW
8:30 - 9:00
ARRIVAL AND COFFEE
9:00 - 9:15
OPENING REMARKS
DR. BROMLEY
9:15 10:45
OCEAN SCIENCE -
9:15 - 10:00
The Honorable John Knauss
Under Secretary for Oceans
and Atmosphere
and Administrator, NOAA
Department of Commerce
10:00 - 10:45
Dr. James Baker
President
Joint Oceanographic Institutions
10:45 11:00
CLOSING REMARKS
DR. BROMLEY
THURSDAY, APRIL 4, 1991 Continued...
CLOSED SESSION 11:00 - 1:00 PM
ROOM 22
OLD EXECUTIVE OFFICE BUILDING
1:00 4:00 PM
ROOSEVELT ROOM
WEST WING, THE WHITE HOUSE
11:10 11:15
OPENING REMARKS
DR. BROMLEY
11:15 11:30
NATIONAL SECURITY AND
DR. BUCHSBAUM
TECHNOLOGY PANEL
- A PROGRESS REPORT
11:30 11:45
HIGH PERFORMANCE COMPUTING
DR. BUCHSBAUM
AND COMMUNICATIONS PANEL
- A PROGRESS REPORT
11:45 12:00
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL
DR. LOVEJOY
RESOURCES PANEL
- A PROGRESS REPORT
12:00 - 12:45
LUNCH
12:45 - 1:00
BREAK
1:00 - 1:15
APPROVAL OF TERMS OF REFERENCE
DR. LIKINS
AND MEMBERS FOR PCAST PANEL ON
EDUCATION AND HUMAN RESOURCES
1:15 1:45
PLANS FOR SOCIAL AND BEHAVIORAL DR. PERROLLE
SCIENCE IN OSTP
1:45 - 2:30
DISCUSSION OF MAY AGENDA
DR. BROMLEY
AND OTHER BUSINESS
2:30 3:00
REMARKS ON THE "REPORT OF THE ADVISORY
COMMITTEE ON THE FUTURE OF THE U.S.
SPACE PROGRAM"
DR. AUGUSTINE
3:00 3:15
DISCUSSION
3:15 - 3:45
CRITICAL TECHNOLOGIES
DR. PHILLIPS
3:45 - 4:00
DISCUSSION
4:00 -
DR. BROMLEY LEAVES TO ADDRESS
ENGINEERING SOCIETY LEADERS,
INDIAN TREATY ROOM (ROOM 474)
FRIDAY, APRIL 5, 1991
CLOSED SESSION 9:00 AM - 11:00 AM
ROOM 476
OLD EXECUTIVE OFFICE BUILDING
8:30 - 8:50
ARRIVAL AND COFFEE
(DR. BROMLEY'S OFFICE, ROOM 358, OEOB)
8:50 - 9:00
MOVE TO ROOM 476
9:00 - 9:15
OPENING REMARKS
9:15 - 9:30
DR. McTAGUE
DR. RATCHFORD
DISCUSSION OF TERMS OF REFERENCE AND
MEMBERS FOR PCAST PANEL ON INTERNATIONAL
FRAMEWORK FOR BASIC SCIENCE MEGAPROJECTS
9:30 9:45
DR. NATHANS
DR. HEALY
APPROVAL OF TERMS OF REFERENCE AND
MEMBERS FOR PCAST PANEL ON BIOSCIENCE
AND BIOTECHNOLOGY PANEL
9:45 10:00
DR. GOMORY
DR. SHAPIRO
DISCUSSION OF TERMS OF REFERENCE
AND MEMBERS FOR PCAST PANEL ON
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS
10:00 10:15
BREAK
10:15 11:00
OTHER BUSINESS AND
DR. BROMLEY
CLOSING REMARKS
DRAFT
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
April 29, 1991
MEMORANDUM FOR THOMAS E. LOVEJOY
President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology
(PCAST)
FROM:
D. ALLAN BROMLEY
SUBJECT:
TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR THE PCAST PANEL ON
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCES
You are requested to establish a PCAST Panel on Global Environment and Natural
Resources.
The purpose of the Panel is to enable PCAST to advise the President on issues related
to natural resources and environmental sciences that have bearing on long range
national goals, government regulation, the transition of Federal R&D findings to
industry and academia, areas of potential collaboration with industry participation, of
the States in the national program, and foreign access.
World leaders are paying increasing attention to global environmental and natural
resource issues. The economic and social consequences of global environmental
changes, both natural and human induced, are complex, substantial and only partially
clear. Programs to address such changes require policy decisions based on adequate
scientific knowledge. For example, the behavior of the linked ocean, atmosphere, land
system and their biotic components are at best only roughly understood. Recent
reports developed by the National Research Council/ National Academy of Sciences
(NAS), the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP), and the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) all indicate the need for additional
research to provide a predictive understanding of the Earth System. The Federal
Coordinating Council for Science, Engineering, and Technology (FCCSET) has issued
five reports that have provided the framework of the U.S. Global Change Research
Program. Federal agencies, including the Departments of Agriculture, Commerce,
Defense, Energy, and Interior, the Environmental Protection Agency, the National
Atmospheric and Space Administration, the National Science Foundation, and the
Smithsonian Institution have major programs coordinated through the FCCSET in
support of this Program. An additional report will address research on mitigation and
adaptation in response to global change.
The increasing pressure of human population on biological resources and ecosystems is
resulting in unprecedented erosion of biological diversity (species of plants and
animals). These represent important resources as genetic resources, sources of
information about living systems, and environmental indicators. In addition, as
biological communities (ecosystems), particularly as forecasts, they perform important
functions in biogeochemical cycles and watershed maintenance.
DRA
DRAFT
The Panel on Global Environment and Natural Resources shall:
1.
Using the document "Our Changing Planet: The FY 1991 Research Plan",
identify areas of potential interaction and collaboration with the private sector in
particular to help provide a predictive understanding of the Earth system and
illuminate the Nation's ability to mitigate or adapt to global environmental
change.
2.
Advise on general societal needs that can be served by natural resources, earth
and environmental sciences, and identify means for a broad diffusion of the
benefits of the U.S. Global Change Research Program.
3.
Advise on research needed to protect biological diversity and the impact of
human population upon it.
The Panel will submit a preliminary report to the PCAST within 3 months and a final
report 6 months after the Panel's first meeting.
The Office of the Assistant Director for the Environment, Office of Science and
Technology Policy will sponsor this Panel. Dr. Thomas E. Lovejoy will serve as
Chairman. Dr. Nancy Maynard will serve as Executive Secretary and Mr. William
Snyder will represent the PCAST Executive Director.
Determination
I hereby determine that the formation of the PCAST Panel on Global Environment and
Natural Resources is in the public interest in connection with the performance of duties
imposed on the Executive Branch by law, and that such duties can best be performed
through the advice and counsel of such a group.
The Terms of Reference for the PCAST Panel on Global Environment and Natural
Resources include no assignment requiring Panel members to participate personally and
substantially in the conduct of any specific procurement, or place any member in the
position of acting as a "procurement official."
Approved:
D. Allan Bromley
Assistant to the President
for
Science and Technology
Date
POPULATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: KEY FACTS
Major Impacts of Population Growth on Environmental Degradation
1. Sheer numbers and multipliers
2. Time
3. Global carrying capacity
4. Destruction of fragile areas
5. Accelerated urbanization
Basic Formula:
Environmental Impact = Population x Affluence (consumption) X
Technology, or I = P x A x T
Population Growth
Between now and the year 2025, 95 percent of the people added
to the world's population will live in developing countries (Sadik,
1990). If the world reaches replacement-level fertility by the
year 2000, world population could eventually stabilize at less than
9 billion. However, if it takes until 2080 to reach replacement-
level fertility, world population would grow to 14 billion, nearly
triple today's size (Haub et al., 1990).
Food and Agriculture
By the year 2000, world food production will have to increase
by 50-60 percent over the 1980 level just to keep pace with
population growth (UNFAO, 1981). At present levels of subsistence
farming, 64 out of 117 developing countries will be unable to feed
their populations by the year 2000; the majority of these 64
countries will to able to support less than half of their projected
populations (UNFAO, 1984).
Deforestation
An analysis of deforestation in 38 developing countries found
that population growth was a major causal factor (Allen and Barnes,
1985). Slash-and-burn cultivation leads to deforestation as
population density intensifies. The number of slash-and-burn
cultivators worldwide is growing by 4 to 12 percent annually due
to high fertility and migration rates (Myers, 1990).
Wildlife and Habitat
Biological diversity was at an all-time high at the beginning
of the industrial revolution when the world had 1 billion people.
Today, less than 200 years later, our numbers have quintupled, and
plants and animals are disappearing at the rate of 4,000 to 6,000
species a year (Wilson, 1989).
Urbanization
By the turn of the century, there will be 24 urban
agglomerations having a population of at least 10 million; most of
these are located in the developing world (UN, 1989). About 60
percent of urban growth is due to fertility, the rest to migration
from rural areas (Kols and Lewison, 1983).
nail sec. nate see.
Solid Waste
Due to population growth, developing countries will account
for 60 percent of the new municipal and industrial waste generated
between 1985 and 2025. If LDC incomes as well as population grow,
developing countries could contribute 83 percent of the new waste
generated during this period. By the year 2025, developing
countries could generate more than half of the world's wastes
(Shaw, 1989).
Energy
In the year 2025, a world population of 7.5 billion people
(close to the U.N. low projection) would consume 17.6 terawatts of
energy, compared with 22 terawatts consumed by 9.5 billion (close
to the U.N. medium projection) ; the difference of 4.4 terawatts is
equivalent to world energy use in 1960 (Holdren, 1989).
The number of people without adequate fuelwood will grow from
1.4 billion in 1980 to 3.0 billion in the year 2000; four-fifths
of this increase is due to population growth (UNFAO, 1984).
Water
Due to population growth alone, demand for water is expected
to double in more than half of the world's countries between 1971
and 2000 (UNFAO, 1986). Much of this water is needed for
irrigation to increase food production. Potential water demand
exceeds rainfall in most of Africa, the Middle East, north Asia and
parts of Mexico, Chile and Argentina (Falkenmark, 1990).
The growing volume of untreated human wastes and toxic
substances could render as much as one-fourth of the world's water
supply unsafe for human consumption by the year 2000 (UNFAO, 1986).
Greenhouse Effect
Global carbon dioxide emissions increased by 3.1 percent
annually between 1950 and 1985, while population increased by 1.9
percent annually during this period. If the U.N. low population
projections for the year 2025 could be achieved instead of the
medium ones, global carbon dioxide emissions could be reduced by
1.3 billion metric tons--equivalent to cutting present
deforestation rates by 84 percent (Harrison, 1990).
Source: Green, Cynthia P. "Population and the Environment: The
Decisive Decade Ahead," Population Reports. Johns Hopkins
University/Population Information Program, forthcoming in 1991.
Available in English, with French, Spanish and Portuguese
translations to follow.
Author's address: 5512 Westbard Ave., Bethesda, MD 20816;
telephone: (301) 654-4085
KEY ISSUES
1.
All of us are unwitting participants to the largest experiment
conducted in the history of the earth. We are testing how
many people the earth can support, and ultimately whether
human beings can live on the planet without destroying it.
While survival is the paramount issue, of secondary interest
is whether human beings can modulate their lifestyles for the
good of society and future generations.
2.
The world may already have exceeded its long-term carrying
capacity--the number of people that can be supported by the
environment. As more people are added to the world's
population, the possibility of a reasonable standard of living
for everyone diminishes, while the risk of widespread
suffering from famine, disease, and natural disasters grows.
3.
Decisions made during this decade will determine whether world
population stops growing at 9 billion or 14 billion.
4.
Developing countries constitute the major new source of
environmental degradation in coming decades; 95 percent of the
people added to world population in the next 35 years will
live in developing countries.
5.
Making an all-out effort to promote voluntary family planning
now could make a major difference in the quality of life
worldwide, not to mention the survival of the human species
on the planet. The difference between 8 or 14 billion could
determine whether massive famines kill millions, greenhouse
gases trigger potentially irreversible climate changes, or the
world's poor continue to ravage land and forests in a
desperate struggle for survival.
6.
Population growth is a key factor in environmental
degradation. Efforts to protect the environment should
include measures to limit population growth. Although family
planning may be controversial, it is no more difficult than
other environmental protection measures such as energy
conservation, land redistribution, technological changes,
pollution control, changes in commodity price supports and
trade policies, resettlement schemes, establishment of
protected areas, and a reduction in military spending. One
underappreciated aspect of family planning is that couples are
already motivated to have fewer children; it is a matter of
providing them with the means to do so.
Relationship between Population and the Environment
Rapid population growth affects the environment in five ways:
1.
Sheer numbers and multipliers. The 96 million people being
added to the world's population annually are a major source
of environmental stress. Their impact is multiplied by
consumption levels, polluting technologies, population
density, and other factors. As obvious as it sounds, it is
important to stress that there is no such thing as a "zero
impact lifestyle." Every person added to the world's
population has some effect on the environment. Beyond this
basic level, four factors inflate each individual's
environmental impact:
Standard of living, or per capita consumption levels--
The basic formula for estimating the total amount of
environmental stress in a given area is: total
environmental impact (I) equals the number of people (P)
times per capita consumption, or affluence (A) times the
technology needed to produce food and goods and dispose
of wastes (T). A shortened version reads: Impact =
Population X Affluence X Technology, or I = P X A X T.
Technologies used to meet human needs--Technology plays
an important role because it can either generate massive
pollution or increase productivity through low-impact
technologies such as solar power.
Diminishing returns--When the supply of food, energy,
minerals, and water becomes scarce or less accessible,
then it is difficult and expensive to provide them to
additional people. For example, increasing food supplies
requires using more energy and investing in fertilizers
and pesticides. Similarly, once minerals and fossil
fuels close to the earth's surface are used up, it is
necessary to dig or drill deeper, use lower-quality
supplies, or make other adjustments. These extra efforts
entail higher costs and greater environmental damage due
to greater energy use and destruction of ecosystems.
Mexico City provides a good example of diminishing returns.
It already pumps water from a site 100 kilometers away and 1,000
meters lower. But its population grew by 3.8% annually during the
1980s. Soon it will have to tap into water supplies located about
200 kilometers away and 2,000 meters lower. The energy needed to
pump water from this latter site is equivalent to the output of six
1,000 megawatt power plants. Building these plants would cost at
least US$6 billion--nearly half the interest payments on Mexico's
external debt.
1
2
Threshold levels--Natural systems such as trees and lakes
can absorb a certain amount of pollutants without
collapsing. However, as the amount of pollution slowly
increases, it eventually reaches a threshold level that
overloads and destroys natural systems. For example, a
lake may be able to absorb the sewage of 500 people, but
will cease to support plants and fishes if the
surrounding population grows to 505 people. Thus,
population growth beyond a certain point has serious
consequences. Unfortunately, it is difficult to identify
this point until it has been exceeded.
2. Time. With their populations doubling every two to three
decades, many developing countries can barely keep up with
the relentless demand for food, jobs, and housing. The pace
has left little time to promote environmental safeguards and
introduce new technologies. For example, Europe and Asia had
more than two centures to adapt to increases population
density so they were able to introduce more intensive farming
through the use of new technologies, improved labor
productivity, and expanded markets. Africa, on the other
hand, has only one-sixth as much time as other regions had to
make this transition. If African countries fail to make the
technological and economic changes needed to improve
agricultural productivity, further declines in crop yields are
likely and farmlands may be permanently damaged.
3. Global carrying capacity. Rapid increases in human numbers
increase the chances that total world population size will
exceed the maximum level that the earth can support. People
question whether the world can sustain its present population,
let alone 10 or 15 billion. Two factors affect global
carrying capacity:
o
The ability of biological systems to provide the
necessary food and energy to support humans and to absorb
the wastes produced by human activities. Through direct
consumption, agriculture, and human settlements, humans
use about 40% of the planet's food resources on land
(solar energy captured by plants, known as net primary
production). If world population grows by 50%--as it is
projected to do by the year 2020, more than half of land-
based food resources would be consumed by humans. Even
more alarming, food production potential has been reduced
by 13% in the past four decades. A middle-range estimate
of global carrying capacity, based on projected food
supplies, is 7.5 billion people. World population is
expected to exceed this level within 25 years.
The amount of greenhouse gases that can accumulate in the
atmosphere without triggering irreversible and
devastating climatic changes. Suppose that in a few
3
decades scientists conclude that the 1987 global output
of 8.6 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide (the leading
greenhouse gas) is too high, and that global carbon
dioxide emissions should be kept to 3 billion metric tons
annually. If world population growth levelled off at
about 10 billion people, each person could generate 0.3
metric tons of carbon dioxide annually--the current level
of Mali or Sierra Leone. However, if the planet holds
14 billion people, the allotted amount of carbon dioxide
emissions is 0.2 metric tons per individual--roughly 50%
less.
4.
Destruction of fragile areas. Areas with low or uneven
rainfall, weak soils, and hillsides can support small numbers
of people, especially if they have the freedom to migrate over
large areas. However, when areas become densely populated,
fallow periods are shortened, fuelwood is cut down faster than
it can grow back, and people are unable to roam freely.
Intensive cultivation leads to soil damage and erosion and
desertification. The cycle of destruction is repeated as
families move on to other fragile areas.
5.
Accelerated urbanization. As it becomes increasingly
difficult to make a living in rural areas, people move to
large cities and towns. Cities in the developing world are
doubling in size every 20 years on average. These
concentrations of people create new environmental problems
that do not exist in rural communities because urban dwellers
use more water and energy and generate more waste than rural
residents. In cities large amounts of energy are needed to
import food, water, and fuel; collect garbage; and treat
sewage. Cities are more likely to have polluted air and water
because natural ecosystems cannot absorb the large quantities
of wastes generated in urban areas. As population size
increases, the cost to maintain environmental quality (such
as providing clean water, treating sewage, and disposing of
garbage and other wastes) also increases.
[2] From: Jackeline J. Clawson 4/25/91 8:25AM (3719 bytes: 125 1n)
Subject: PCAST Agenda
Message Contents
DRAFT
As of April 24, 1991
PRESIDENT'S COUNCIL OF ADVISORS
ON
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
MAY 2-3, 1991
AGENDA
THURSDAY, MAY 2, 1991
OPEN SESSION 9:00 AM - 11:00 AM
CONFERENCE ROOM
COUNCIL ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY
722 JACKSON PLACE, NW
8:30 - 9:00
ARRIVAL AND COFFEE
9:00 - 9:30
OPENING REMARKS
DR. BROMLEY
9:30 - 10:30
THE DEPARTMENT OF
HON. LAMAR
EDUCATION*
ALEXANDER
10:30 - 11:00
DISCUSSION
11:00 -
CLOSING REMARKS
DR. BROMLEY
AND MOVE TO ROOM 248,
OLD EXECUTIVE OFFICE BUILDING
* Tentative
DR.
THURSDAY, MAY 2, 1991 Continued...
CLOSED SESSION 11:00 - 4:30 PM
OMB DIRECTOR'S CONFERENCE ROOM
ROOM 248
OLD EXECUTIVE OFFICE BUILDING
11:15 - 11:45
NATIONAL SECURITY AND
DR. BUCHSBAUM
TECHNOLOGY PANEL
- A PROGRESS REPORT
11:45 - 12:15
HIGH PERFORMANCE COMPUTING
DR. BUCHSBAUM
AND COMMUNICATIONS PANEL
- A PROGRESS REPORT
12:15 - 1:00
LUNCH
1:00 - 1:30
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT AND
DR. LOVEJOY
NATURAL RESOURCES PANEL
- A PROGRESS REPORT
1:30 - 2:00
PANEL ON MEGAPROJECTS
DR. McTAGUE
IN THE SCIENCES
DR. RATCHFORD
- A PROGRESS REPORT
2:00 - 2:30
LIFE SCIENCES AND
DR. NATHANS
BIOTECHNOLOGY PANEL
- A PROGRESS REPORT
2:30 - 3:00
APPROVAL OF TERMS OF
DR. GOMORY
REFERENCE AND MEMBERS FOR
DR. SHAPIRO
PANEL ON INTERNATIONAL
ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS
3:00 - 3:15
BREAK
3:15 - 3:45
TO BE DETERMINED
3:45 - 4:00
DISCUSSION
4:00 - 4:30
DISCUSSION OF JULY AGENDA
DR. BROMLEY
AND CLOSING REMARKS
FRIDAY, MAY 3, 1991
CLOSED SESSION 9:00 AM - 12:00 NOON
ROOSEVELT ROOM
WEST WING
WHITE HOUSE
8:30 - 8:50
ARRIVAL AND COFFEE
(DR. BROMLEY'S OFFICE, ROOM 358, OEOB)
8:50 - 9:00
MOVE TO ROOSEVELT ROOM
9:00 - 9:15
PREPARATION FOR
DR. BROMLEY
THIS MORNING
9:15 - 9:30
EDUCATION AND HUMAN
DR. LIKINS
RESOURCES PANEL
- A PROGRESS REPORT
9:30 10:00
DISCUSSION
10:00 10:30
OTHER BUSINESS
DR. BROMLEY
10:30 - 11:15
DISCUSSION
DR. BROMLEY
11:15 - 12:00
OTHER BUSINESS AND
DR. BROMLEY
CLOSING REMARKS
SENSITIVE CLOSE HOLD
Notes from PCAST Panel Meeting - May 1, 1991
Regents Room, Smithsonian Castle
Present: Tom Lovejoy, David Packard, Chuck Drake, Norman Borlaug, D.A.
Henderson, N.G. Maynard
Tom Lovejoy began with a description of how the group might proceed.
DAH mentioned a session he had just had with some White House Fellows who had
suggested 2 ways of dealing with the population/food problem. One suggested that we
would be fine if we just changed our food production and distribution policy - we
could feed everyone. The second suggested that we just let more immigrants into the
US.
NB noted that there is not going to be rapid progress in food production. He also
said that as family size goes down, the standard of living goes up (e.g. Bangladesh,
India)
TL returned the discussion to the papers which had been submitted by Panel
members.
DP said that we need a piece about how serious the problem is and why it needs to
be addressed soon. We should make a strong as case as possible for the urgency of
the issue. We do not need all the details but we need to get across the fact that this
is the overriding issue with all the major problems being addressed by PCAST.
Then, there is the issue of what to do about it. He then discussed a book he
had just read by Roger Freeman of Hoover Inst. (?) which talks about the difference
between Malaysia and Indonesia. Malasia has done well, while Indonesia has been a
disaster.
NB commented about the work ethic issue. While people are struggling to achieve
survival and success, there isn't a problem. However, once you achieve success, you
no longer have the same motivation (often it is the next generation who reaps the
benefits)
DP said that when you are working so hard, you do not have time to think about all
this. It is when things are o.k. that you can sit around and think about all these
crazy things.
CD said that you need a 2x4 to first get the mule's attention (about this problem).
Then, we deal with the abortion issue as a failure of family planning. He then
quoted something from Edward Abbey.
TL referred to Edward Abbey and the "ethnobotannical" concept.
DP said that things have gotten worse in the past number of years. Countries need
to find ways to manage their own affairs. He also noted that funds have not been
used for constructive purposes It is an insipid thing we are doing.
SENSITIVE CLOSE HOLD
TL mentioned another factor which has greatly contributed to the problem - migration
into the cities.
NB agreed and said that this is made worse also because of other aspects of
urbanization. There is an increase in need for education, health care, etc in the
urban area.
DA mentioned that the problem also stems from the declining infant mortality rate
which causes an increase in population.
CD noted that, for all species, the most successful evolutionary strategy is to spew out
alot of eggs to insure success. He used as an example aquaculture.
NB mentioned that the problem is complicated by nutritition - the quality of food as
a factor.
DP discussed the sibling "Cain and Abel Syndrome" - the less fit is killed.
CD noted that the male lion will eat the young of a competing male lion's pride when
he takes over that lion's pride.
DA made a comment about Moses as a good administrator.
TL noted that the NY Times yesterday had an article about an attack on Moses.
TL then discussed the introductory portion of CD's paper.
DA commented that in Bangladesh the problem is so oppressive you can feel the
problem as you walk in the country.
CD commented that we can provide fresh mounts to the 4 horseman of the
Acopolypse or.....
TL said he still liked the analogy of running up the down escalator.
Some further discussion about words in DP's first paragraph. Also. that there was a
great deal of very good material here but the problem is that the paper for the P has
to be short.
NM asked what about producing the P paper and then doing a longer article for a
publication like "Issues" or Science.
TL noted that the NYT will do something on population and gave an example of
some discussions he had had recently.
DA said it would be good to have one paper for the P and then a statement/paper to
a larger audience.
SENSITIVE CLOSE HOLD
DA asked how many administrations have been supportive of family planning and
then said that it started with Kennedy and ended with the Mexico City Declaration.
He discussed some groups which have been supportive then referred to the orange
pamphlet, 1990 World Population Data Sheet.
NB said that in his lifetime he has seen an increase from 22 to 91 million Mexicans,
but that food production has not kept pace. He discussed the tremendous jump in
agriculture and production - in the 17 most important food and fiber crops. But, he
said that while we can go higher in yield, it will be harder to add much more of an
increment.
DP mentioned also the effect on the ecology of an area He noted that as an area
becomes a better habitat for ducks and geese, it is also better for varmints.
CD noted that what we are asking is "Can we support the number of people we
have?".
DP said to forget the prose and say it is a complex issue a special issue with some
fundamental differences among parties, but the overall importance is so great that
everyone in this issue should keep in mind the shorter term benefits. He suggest the
P could take the high road and deal with the health, etc issues and say join with me
and see what we can do with the big issue.
NB said that the problem with the LDC's is that it takes a long time to figure out
their problem and that by the time they do, it is too late to do anyting about it.
TL noted about the Cessifisian (?) Problem
TL and DA both commented that the problem is presently out of control.
NB said that it has alot to do with immigrations and political instabilities
NM suggested maybe we could feed into the UNCED process there are three papers
which touch on the population problem. (gave the 3 UNCED papers)
NB suggested that we pick out an example of the food and population issues - and
the time bought on the food front.
DP said that if something is not done in this decade, it will be too late. We will not
be able to feed this population.
TL noted that in the NAS report, they made a mistake in not connecting the world
economy to the US situation.
TL mentioned that he head heard a statement by Ambassador Green that....was for
apple pie but against motherhood.
SENSITIVE CLOSE HOLD
DA talked about doing a piece on research. If we had a better approach to the
delivery facilities, many more females would take advantage of contraception if were
given the opportunity. So much of this is "medicalized" that it is not available to
women necessarily. Now we are breaking away from that concept - look at the
marketing/merchantizing of the concept. We can do better but it will take a big
push.
About new technologies he noted the amount of money going into new research
on contraceptives in US was about 0. So little research is going on in US in
reproductive biology it is embarrassing to go to international meetings. In Europe,
there is such a small research base, the number of opportunities for breakthroughs is
much smaller. The product liability problem has forced pharmaceuticals out of
business and there is now only one commercial production company in the research
field - Ortho.
The strategy is if you had the method in the hands of the woman, the success
would be good. But there are not yet simple enough techniques for them to have
without the husbands knowing about it. Ideally, you could have women take the pill
or have a vaccine 1x month or 1 X year. Another place where this has worked where
we are very pleased with is the immunization program - 10 years ago, 10% of kids
were vaccinated. Now it is 80% of kids. Much is being done outside the medical
community - nontraditional methods of health care.
One of the most successful phenomena is a song which was written for Mexico
about family planning. It had huge success for family planning clinics - people
swamped the family planning clinics. It was one year on the hit parade. Then it
moved to Central America and the same thing happened there. Now, it is in
Phillipines. Similar comments about MacDonalds and Viet Nam (Miss Viet Nam),
and again in Nigeria.
TL said this in known as the rhythm method.
DA said that the theme of the song was that you probably shouldn't have sex - that it
is o.k. to say no. But, if you are going to have sex, go to the family planning clinic
and prepare. In other words, it was tied to the market out in the open -
merchandizing.
NB asked if the fear of AIDS has added to his.
DA said there are successful research agenda and successful delivery mechanisms.
However, there is also the feeling that no matter what you do, nothing will make a
difference in the squalor out there.
DP said that there are things being done but not enough.
TL said we need success stories - look at the 2nd page of PPC
SENSITIVE CLOSE HOLD
SENSITIVE CLOSE HOLD
DA noted for examples, Mexico is good, also Taiwan.
CD noted that it seemed like there were success stories for every country exept the
Antarctic.
TL said that was because all that is down there is Krill and they are supposed to be
an aphrodesiac.
NB said that when Chevre (?) was President of Mexico he shut down family planning
nearly completely. Despite that, they have made good recovery.
TL said he would pull together a few pages on the issue and distribute it to the
group.
DP discussed a book called Crowds and Power by Canetti (published before 1960 -
hard to get). Get the book and read it. 2 main things - human motivation is a hard
thing to deal with and we are a hell of alot better off than we used to be.
DA said he was distressed by Pakistan and India and fears they will never get better.