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Originally Processed With FOIA(s):
FOIA Number:
2005-0336-F
2005-0336-F
FOIA
MARKER
This is not a textual record. This is used as an
administrative marker by the George Bush Presidential
Library Staff.
Record Group/Collection:
George H.W. Bush Presidential Records
Collection/Office of Origin:
Science and Technology Policy, Office of (OSTP)
Series:
Bromley, D. Allan, Files
Subseries:
Global Climate Change Files
OA/ID Number:
62047
Folder ID Number:
62047-002
Folder Title:
Environment - General [1 of 2] [1990]
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0
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
November 30, 1990
MEMORANDUM FOR GOVERNOR SUNUNU
Anan
FROM:
D. ALLAN BROMLEY
SUBJECT:
Global Change Strategy Task Force Meeting
The Global Change Strategy Task Force met on Wednesday, November 28. The State
Department discussed logistics for the Framework Convention negotiations, Justice gave
a briefing on the Comprehensive Approach, and EPA gave a summary of recent work
using the comprehensive approach to estimate U.S. greenhouse gas emissions.
Preparations for the Framework Convention on Climate Change.
The first negotiating session of the Framework Convention will be held in the Westfields
Conference Center in Chantilly, Virginia, located 8 miles south of Dulles Airport. The
location and surroundings of the conference center are conducive to a focus on work,
rather than engaging in press contacts. The session will run from February 4 - 14, and
a tentative agenda is attached (Tab A). One agenda item is election of a chair. At this
time, there is only one viable candidate, Mr. Jean Ripert of France. He is considered
by the U.S. to be qualified and reasonable.
The Comprehensive Approach.
The basics of the Comprehensive Approach were described to the group including its
advantages, applications, potential objections to it, research needed to support the
approach, options for including it into the Framework Convention, and options for
developing the basis in the Convention for international trading. A summary of the
briefing is attached. (Tab B)
U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions.
An EPA study was presented which uses the comprehensive approach and assumptions
about U.S. environmental initiatives (such as the Clean Air Act) to estimate current and
future U.S. emissions of greenhouse gases (Tab C). In addition, the sources of and
underlying assumptions for these estimates is attached (Tab D). The full paper upon
which this presentation was based is provided for your reference (Tab E).
Outstanding Issues.
There are seven broad categories of issues and tasks currently being worked on: 1)
preparation of a climate action plan, 2) an economic feasibility study, 3) draft language
on a comprehensive approach, 4) monitoring and science, 5) lesser developed country
issues, 6) negotiating subgroups in relation to the IPCC, and 7) verification monitoring.
cc: Ede Holiday
11/29/34 10:23
6475947 STATE DEPT OES/E
1
02
Proposed Agenda
First Negotiating Session
Framework Convention on Climate Change
Washington, D.C.
February 4 - - 14, 1991
i, Welcoming Remarks
2. Opening of Meeting: Remarks by WMO Sec-Gen Obasi, UNEP Ex
Director Tolba, IPCC Chair Bolin
3. Adoption of Rules of Procedure: Draft to be available
4. Adoption of Agenda
5. Election of Chair
6. Election of Bureau: Refer to Prepcom report and
recommendations
7. Organization of Work: To cover hours of sessions, meeting
rooms, translation facilities (avail-
able only for negotiationg group and
subgroups, not regional and other
interest groups)
8. Credentials Committee
9. Statements by Governments: To be brief (10 min max) and
focused on issues raised in IPCC
and other supporting documents
10. Preparation of Legal Negotiating Text
a. work program
b. establishment of subgroups
C. legal drafting group
d. review of draft legal text
11. Future Work
a. relationship with IPCC
b. time and place of next meeting
12. Adoption of Report
13. Close of Meeting
11/29/34 10:24
6475947 STATE DEPT OES/E
5.
03
Suggested timing for proposed agenda:
4
Monday
Agenda items 1 to 8
5
Tuesday
Agenda item 9
6
Wednesday
Agenda item 9 cont'd
7
Thursday
Agenda item 10
8
Friday
Agenda item 10 cont'd
11
Monday
Agenda item 10 cont'd
12
Tuesday
Agenda item 10 cont'd
13
Wednesday
Agenda item 10c and 11
14
Thursday
Agenda item 10d, 12 and 13
A COMPREHENSIVE APPROACH TO CLIMATE CHANGE
Briefing to the DPC Global Change Strategy Group
Presentation by the Department of Justice,
Environment & Natural Resources Division
November 28, 1990
- OFFICIAL USE ONLY -
- 1 -
"Comprehensive Approach" described
O
An approach or heuristic to guide consideration of
climate change issues.
Considers all anthropogenic inputs: net emissions
(sources less sinks) of relevant trace gases, weighted
by the environmental impacts of each gas.
O
Considers the several trace gases of interest:
Carbon dioxide (CO2)
Methane (CH4)
Nitrous oxide (N20)
Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)
Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs)
Tropospheric Ozone (03) and its precursors:
Nitrogen oxides (NOx)
Carbon monoxide (CO)
Volatile organic compounds (VOCs)
O
Considers sources and sinks of these trace gases in
every sector of human activity:
Energy generation
Transportation
Agriculture
Forestry and land clearing
Industry
o
Employs a measure, such as an index, of the comparative
environmental impacts of the gases
- 2 -
Anthropogenic Sources & Sinks of Selected Gases
Gas
Sources
Sinks
Carbon
Fossil fuel combustion
Forests
dioxide
Land clearing
Grasses
(CO2)
Soils
Ocean biota
& storage
Methane
Enteric fermentation
Atmospheric OH
(CH4)
in livestock
interaction
Rice cultivation
Soil removal
Wetlands
Landfills
Natural gas drilling,
venting, transmission
Coal mining
Biomass combustion
Nitrous
Agricultural fertilizers
Soil removal
oxide
Land clearing
(N20)
Halocarbons
Refrigerants
(CFCs and
Aerosol propellants
related)
Foam blowing agents
Solvents and cleaning agents
Fire retardants
Tropospheric
Precursors: CH4, CO, VOCs,
Ozone
in the presence of NOx
(03)
Transport of strat. 03
Halocarbon
into troposphere
depletion
Carbon
Fossil fuel combustion
Atmospheric OH
monoxide
Biomass combustion
interaction
(CO)
Precursors: CH4, VOCs
Nitrogen
Fossil fuel combustion
Oxides
Biomass combustion
(NOx)
Agriculture
Volatile
Fossil fuel combustion
Atmospheric OH
Organic
Biomass combustion
interaction
Compounds
Industry
(VOCs)
Aerosols/sulfates
Fossil fuel combustion
(e.g. S02)
- 3 -
Comparing trace gases
O
Need for a measure of relative impacts. A measure, or
index, is needed to compare the environmental impacts
of each trace gas. This measure ensures accounting for
activities' overall impacts on the environment, while
allowing decision makers the flexibility to fashion a
mix of efforts directed at diverse gases.
Weighting can't be avoided. Any policy will employ
some index to weight the gases, whether implicit or
explicit. A CO2-only policy implicitly weights the
other gases at zero.
O
GWP. One such measure is the "Global Warming
Potential" (GWP) index, presented in the IPCC Report.
The GWP measures the relative radiative forcing of each
gas over time -- its potential to warm the atmosphere.
Instantaneous
Atmospheric
Relative radiative
radiative forcing
residence years
forcing potential
Gas
per kg
(estimated)
over years
20
100
500
CO2
1
120
1
1
1
CH4
58
10
63
21
9
N20
206
150
270
290
190
CFC-11
3970
60
4500 3500 1500
CFC-12
5750
130
7100
7300
4500
(Source: IPCC Scientific Assessment, tables 2.3 and 2.8.)
O
Some uncertainties remain in the GWP values, relating
principally to the residence times of gases such as CO2
and N20. They do not warrant abandoning the index.
Time and discounting need further discussion.
o
Other comparative measures might also be developed.
For example, a "global change index" could incorporate
other salient global impacts of the gases in addition
to their radiative forcing. These other global impacts
include beneficial plant enrichment from CO2, and
adverse stratospheric ozone depletion from CFCs and
some of their substitutes. Ignoring these impacts
could lead to perverse results, such as a limit on
warming that induces other adverse environmental
consequences. Yet a multiple attribute index would
require a challenging analytic exercise, and its
development should initially proceed as a complement
not a rival to a radiative forcing index.
- 4 -
Comprehensive approach has multiple applications
O
Research. Designing research strategies to generate
the most valuable information, by focusing attention on
the climate variables of concern for which information
is lacking.
O
Technology evaluation. Calculating the effects on net
emissions of new technologies and practices. Possible
uses in foreign technology assistance, federal R&D
funding, assessments of technology choices encouraged
by other regulatory programs.
O
Inventories. Calculating current net emissions of
relevant trace gases, by nation and sector.
O
Report cards. Calculating the likely effects on net
emissions of current policy actions.
O
Policy choices. Calculating the effects on net
emissions of potential policy actions proposed by
others or considered by the U.S.
O
Policy design. Defining any agreed response measures
in terms of a comprehensive approach, accounting for
and allowing flexibility among all relevant gases,
sources and sinks.
- 5 -
"How to" and "how much"
O
In general, the comprehensive approach addresses "how
to," that is, the design of cost-effective responses
(including research, technology development,
limitations, etc.). It does not directly address the
question of "how much" response to potential climate
change is desirable; that is the province of overall
cost-benefit analysis, which considers the aggregate
costs and benefits of change and of actions to respond.
The comprehensive approach does shed light on some
approaches to the question of "how much," by ensuring
attention to the arguably limited environmental
benefits and high economic costs of piecemeal policy
measures.
- 6 -
Advantages of a Comprehensive Approach to Policy Design
A.
The dominant tenor of climate policy discourse has been
piecemeal, addressing each trace gas and each sector
separately. Most policy proposals, and most data collection
efforts, have focused on energy sector CO2 emissions.
B.
Comprehensive approach offers environmental advantages
Piecemeal policies have proved environmentally
ineffective or even counterproductive. The history of
environmental policy has been piecemeal efforts aimed
at air, water, and land emissions separately, leading
to cross-media shifts in residuals.
Administration efforts to employ better approaches:
-- multimedia approach to solid and hazardous emissions
-- multipollutant approach to air emissions
-- multimedia enforcement actions
-- comprehensive approach to climate context
- 7 -
O
Shifting residuals. Piecemeal approaches in the
climate area could lead to counterproductive cross-gas
tradeoffs. Narrow focus on one trace gas could induce
shifts in emissions to unregulated gases and sectors.
Examples:
(1) Piecemeal policy aimed at CO2 alone could induce
fuel-switching from coal or oil to natural gas, with
attendant reduced CO2 emissions from combustion, but
increased CH4 output from transmission leakage.
Methane offset from fuel-switching to Natural Gas:
Typical grams
CH4 leakage
of CO2 emitted
rate that offsets
per MJ (in Sweden)
100% of CO2 savings
Coal
92
6%
Oil
78
4%
Nat. Gas
56
--
(Calculated from Rodhe, Science 8 June 1990,
using Rodhe's GWP figure of CH4 = 10 GWP per
mole CO2 over 100 year integration period.)
Current average Natural Gas transmission CH4
leakage rates:
USA:
1%
Australia:
3%
USSR:
5-10% ?
(2) Piecemeal focus on limiting agricultural CH4 could
induce use of nitrogenous fertilizers that reduce CH4
emissions per yield but raise N20 emissions.
(3) Piecemeal focus on transport emissions might induce
shifts to energy sector (e.g. if electric vehicles are
powered by coal-fired boilers) or to agriculture sector
(e.g. if biomass for alternative fuels is cultivated
with nitrogen fertilizers).
- 8 -
Comprehensive approach ensures that such shifts are
accounted for by decisionmakers.
Side benefits. By focusing on "net" emissions, the
comprehensive approach fosters sink protection and
expansion, such as afforestation and protection of
phytoplankton. Benefits include biodiversity, reduced
soil erosion, protected food webs.
C.
Comprehensive approach offers economic and social advantages
Piecemeal approach is economically inefficient.
Piecemeal policy would preclude alternatives that
achieve the same environmental outcome at less cost.
For example, a policy aimed only at energy sector CO2
would bar less costly abatement options such as
afforestation, CH4 reductions, attention to CFC-
substitutes, or N20 reductions.
O
Flexibility reduces costs. The costs of different
options will vary across nations, so to minimize costs
each ought to have the flexibility to build its least-
cost policy mix among the gases and sectors.
(Even if a multi-gas inventory would rank some
nations higher in net emissions than they would under a
single-gas accounting, all nations could gain as the
marginal cost of abatement is reduced through greater
flexibility.)
Burden sharing. A comprehensive approach provides a
more "level playing field" across nations, in contrast
to a piecemeal approach which effectively singles out
nations with one pattern of economic and social
activity. Offers the possibility of smoother, and more
sober, international cooperation.
- 9 -
Potential objections to a comprehensive approach
O
Data and monitoring of sources and sinks are inadequate
-- Build better data and monitoring
-- Employ carefully chosen proxies or surrogates for
difficult-to-measure emissions
-- Design incentives for monitoring improvements, such
as offering emissions credit to those who demonstrate
better monitoring techniques.
GWP Index is uncertain
-- Boulder workshop suggests fundamentals well accepted
-- Work toward improvements
-- Absolute precision may not be required initially;
changes in index numbers could be made at wide
intervals and/or prospectively
Other discrete actions will have already been taken,
e.g. forestry agreement, CFCs, VOCs
-- Integration of prior and current actions into
comprehensive approach will be necessary
O
CFCs should not be included in comprehensive basket
-- Comprehensive approach would not allow violation of
the Montreal Protocol
-- CFCs are a major share of radiative forcing, and
their elimination should be recognized
-- Some nations are doing more to reduce global CFCs
than others, and their contribution should be
recognized
-- Faster reductions, or reductions in other substances
not controlled, or in other nations, could earn credit;
this would provide helpful incentives in support of the
Montreal Protocol
-- CFC substitutes may be quite important to radiative
forcing
- 10 -
Research needed in the short term to support the comprehensive
approach. The "Interim Report" of the Task Force on
Comprehensive and Incentives Approaches identified tasks needed
in the next three months, including:
(1) Index. Develop an improved radiative forcing index and
outline a plan for further improvements. Incorporate new
research results. Draft a proposal for a standing
international expert group, to be established in the
framework convention, that would develop the index further
and would shepherd it toward accuracy, international
consensus, and continuing reassessment in light of new
research. Draft talking points on time horizons. Outline a
global change index, incorporating salient environmental
effects in addition to radiative forcing; provide a rough
quantitative estimate of its measure.
(2) Emissions monitoring. Draft a proposal for
international emissions monitoring network (s) to cover all
gases, sources and sinks. Identify specific techniques to
be used (e.g. satellites, ground stations). Highlight gaps
in knowledge and disputes over methods. Develop proxies or
surrogates where needed.
(3) Documenting environmental advantages of a comprehensive
approach. Formulate "crisp retorts" or "zingers" to deflate
piecemeal proposals, showing they would have little
environmental benefit, or actually be counterproductive.
Calculate effects of cross-nation, cross-gas, cross-sector
shifts. Collect empirical examples of the environmental
backfiring of piecemeal strategies applied to other
environmental problems.
(4) Documenting economic advantages of a comprehensive
approach. Develop quantitative estimates of the marginal
cost of abatement of different gases in different selected
nations.
(5) Report card. Update the comprehensive "report card" or
"budget" of net index-weighted emissions changes achieved by
climate-relevant actions taken for other reasons. Repeat
analysis for selected foreign nations.
(6) Updated discussion papers on comprehensive and economic
incentives approaches. Write updated and improved paper (s)
explaining the comprehensive and incentives approaches,
giving empirical examples, and discussing practical
advantages and challenges to their use in the climate
context. Develop plans for future seminars.
- 11 -
Options for Including a Comprehensive Approach in the Convention
(1) Monitoring. Comprehensive source and sink monitoring:
cooperative international networks addressing all
relevant trace gases. Create institutions for data
sharing, harmonizing methodologies, R&D on new
techniques.
(2) International inventories. Build the capacity to
estimate international net emissions of relevant trace
gases: baseline levels and changes due to policy
actions. National reporting, workshops to compare
numbers and methods.
(3) Index. Cooperative development and refinement of an
index. Create institutional expert body to conduct
regular reassessments and keep policy makers informed
of research developments.
(4) Framing policy. Ensure that any limitations
obligations (if any, whether now or in the future) are
defined in terms of a comprehensive approach. This
could be required, or at least endorsed, in the
convention.
(5) Advance assurance. Give advance assurance that current
actions will receive "credit" against any future
limitations obligations, in accordance with a
comprehensive approach.
Pros: Helps avoid disincentives to taking actions
justified on other grounds; nations may hold such
actions in abeyance lest they lose credit for them.
Provides an institutional means to integrate discrete
initiatives (e.g. CFCs, forestry, VOCs, and any
national actions such as CAA, tree planting, energy
efficiency). Ensures that a comprehensive approach to
such credit will be used.
Cons: Requires debate over baseline.
(6) Technology evaluation. Employ a comprehensive approach
to assess any technology transfer activities.
- 12 -
Options for Laying the Basis for International Trading in the
Convention
(a) REIOs. Broaden the notion of "regional economic
integration organization" (REIO) to allow any group of
nations to work together. The term REIO is employed in
the Montreal Protocol to allow regional groups like the
EC to form a group-wide CFC emissions bubble. It could
be broadened to allow joint undertakings by less
formalized groups of states, and by non-contiguous
states.
(b) Joint cooperation. Include language acknowledging that
any obligations can be met through "joint cooperative
arrangements." Applies to technology development,
emissions limitations, other obligations.
(c) Registry. Develop an international information center
on trades. The center could initially gather
information and provide advice on how to arrange and
implement effective trades. It could start with
information on, e.g., debt-for-nature swaps and EC
bubble activities. It could grow to become a trading
registry if full-scale international trading developed.
(d) Financial and technology transfers. Incorporate
emissions credits into international technology
transfer and financial assistance arrangements. Funds
and technology transferred by donor countries, directly
or through a global environmental funding facility,
could earn credits for the donors corresponding to the
net emissions change (calculated in terms of a
comprehensive approach) achieved by the transfer. The
donor could then submit the credit in compliance with
any international limits on emissions that might later
be agreed.
TRENDS AND POLICY OPTIONS
GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY
O
GREENHOUSE GASES:
CARBON DIOXIDE (CO₂)
METHANE (CH₂)
CHLOROFLUOROCARBONS (CFCs)
NITROUS OXIDES (N₂O)
TROPOSPHERIC OZONE (O,)
GASES THAT AFFECT CONCENTRATIONS OF
GREENHOUSE GASES:
VOLATILE ORGANIC COMPOUNDS (VOCs)
CARBON MONOXIDE (CO)
NITROGEN OXIDES (NO,)
o
PROBLEM: NEED WAY TO TRANSLATE
VARIOUS GASES INTO A COMMON CURRENCY
GHG Time Profiles
500 Years
W m^-2 yr kg^-1
0.16
0.14
GWP of N2O =
0.12
190 relative to CO2
N2O
0.1
CH4
0.08
'CO2
GWP of CH4 =
0.06
9 relative to CO2
0.04
0.02
o
Years
500
Radiative forcing of a gas is expressed
as a change in the flux of energy, i.e.,
watts per sq. meter per kg of gas.
GHG Time Profiles
100 Year
W m^-2 yr kg^-1
0.16
0.14
GWP of N2O =
0.12
290 relative to CO2
N2O
0.1
CH4
0.08
CO2
GWP of CH4 =
0.06
21 relative to CO2
0.04
0.02
O
100
Years
500
Radiative forcing of a gas is expressed
as a change in the flux of energy, i.e.,
watts per sq. meter per kg of gas.
Global Warming Potential
Trace Gas
Estimated
Lifetime,
Integration Time Horizon, Years
years
20
100
500
Carbon Dioxide
*
1
1
1
Methane - inc indirect
10
63
21
9
Nitrous Oxide
150
270
290
190
CFC-11
60
4500
3500
1500
CFC-12
130
7100
7300
4500
HCFC-22
15
4100
1500
510
CFC-113
90
4500
4200
2100
CFC-114
200
6000
6900
5500
CFC-115
400
5500
6900
7400
HCFC-123
1.6
310
85
29
HCFC-124
6.6
1500
430
150
HFC-125
28
4700
2500
860
HFC-134a
16
3200
1200
420
HCFC-141b
8
1500
440
150
HCFC-142b
19
3700
1600
540
HFC-143a
41
4500
2900
1000
HFC-152a
1.7
510
140
47
CCL4
50
1900
1300
460
CH₃ CCl₃
6
350
100
34
CF3Br
110
5800
5800
3200
INDIRECT
EFFECTS
Source Gas
Greenhouse Gas
Impacted
CH4
Tropospheric O₃
24
8
3
CH4
CO2
3
3
3
CH4
Stratospheric H2O
10
4
1
8
Tropospheric O₃
5
1
0
8
CO2
2
2
2
NOₓ
Tropospheric O₃
150
40
14
NMHC
Tropospheric O₃
28
8
3
NMHC
CO2
3
3
3
Current Emissions
1987
(100 Year GWP Factors)
Carbon Equivalents - Millions of Tonnes
3000
CFC
N2O
2000
CO
NO x
/
VOCs
CH4
CO₂
1000
0
1987
CO₂
1310
CH₄
235
VOCs
72
NOₓ
218
CO
52
N₂O
74
CFC
367
Total
2328
EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS EXPECTED IN THE YEAR 2000
DUE TO CURRENT. ENVIRONMENTAL COMMITMENTS
AND OTHER INITIATIVES ASSUMED IN THE ANALYSIS
CURRENT
MILLIONS OF TONNES REDUCED
COMMITMENTS
(Carbon Equivalents)
2000⁴
TREE INITIATIVE
~9
DOE ENERGY EFFICIENCY
INITIATIVES
28
DOE APPLIANCE STANDARDS
4
0
DOE RENEWABLE INITIATIVES
4
0
CLEAN AIR ACT
17
0
LANDFILL REGULATION
44
0
CFC PHASEOUT &
MONTREAL PROTOCOL
551
4 Assumes a 100 year time horizon in GWP calculations.
DOE-RELATED co, EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS
USED IN EPA'S GHG EMISSIONS INVENTORY
ACTION/PROGRAM
2000
CO2
Carbon
DOE Appliance Standards
16.0
4.4
(Refrigerators, Washers,
Dryers, Dishwashers)
DOE Efficiency Initiatives
102.0
27.8
Federal Buildings Lighting
5.0
1.4
Commercial Buildings Lighting
9.0
2.5
Promote State LCUP
33.0
9.0
State Adoption of Interim
30.0
8.2
Building Standards
Energy Analysis and
22.0
6.0
Diagnostic Centers
HUD Adoption of DOE
3.0
0.8
Building Standards
DOE Renewable Initiatives
15.0
4.1
Expanded Hydro Power
13.0
3.5
Photovoltaic Technology
2.0
0.5
Transfer
*
Clean Air Act
63.0
17.2
Acid Rain
60.0
16.4
Transportation Biofuels
3.0
0.8
and Natural Gas Use
GRAND TOTAL
196.0
53.5
*
Does not include reductions of 51 million metric tonnes due to decreases
in NOX (19.6 million tonnes), CO (7.4), and VOCs (23.7).
Emissions
(With Current Commitments)
(100 Year GWP Factors)
Carbon Equivalents - Millions of Tonnes
3000
CFC
2000
N2O
CO
NOₓ
/
VOCs
1000
CH4
CO₂
0
1987
2000
2010
1987
2000
2010
CO2
1310
1503
1627
CH4
235
208
212
VOCs
72
48
50
NOₓ
218
199
235
CO
52
45
46
N2O
74
74
74
CFC
367
256
188
Total
2328
2332
2430
U.S. Primary Energy Consumption
Quads
160
ACTUAL
PROJECTED
NES
140
Base Case
(DOE)
120
100
80
Jorgenson
60
40
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
U.S. CO2 Emissions
Million Tonnes Carbon
2400
NES
Base Case
(DOE)
2200
2000
1800
1600
1400
Jorgenson
1200
1000
1990
2000
2010
2020
U.S. CO2 Emissions
Million Tonnes Carbon
2400
NES
Base Case
(DOE)
2200
2000
1800
1600
1400
Jorgenson
1200
0.6% population
growth rate
1000
1990
2000
2010
2020
Emissions
(With Current Commitments)
(100 Year GWP Factors)
Carbon Equivalents - Millions of Tonnes
3000
CFC
2000
N2O
CO
NOₓ
VOCs
1000
CH4
CO₂
0
1987
2000
2010
1987
2000
2010
CO₂
1310
1453*
1498*
CH4
235
208
212
VOCs
72
48
50
NOₓ
218
199
235
CO
52
45
46
N2O
74
74
74
CFC
367
256
188
Total
2328
2283
2303
* CO2 estimates derived from baseline emissions projections
in Jorgenson and Wilcoxen (1990)
SOURCES OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS ESTIMATES
The following appendix documents the sources of the emissions estimates for each of the
greenhouse gases, as well as important underlying assumptions. Documentation is presented
for: (i) the 1987 "base case," (ii) emissions in 2000 without current environmental
commitments, and (iii) emissions in 2000 with current environmental commitments.
CO2:
Estimates of CO2 emissions for 1987 and 2000 (without current environmental
commitments) were derived from figures provided by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to
the Energy and Industry Subgroup (EIS) of the Response Strategies Working Group of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
CO2 emissions reductions in the year 2000 were estimated by DOE for the following
current environmental commitments:
DOE Energy Efficiency Initiatives
DOE Appliance Standards
DOE Renewable Initiatives
Proposed Clean Air Act Legislation and DOE Transportation Fuels
Program
A detailed discussion of each of these initiatives follows:
L
DOE Energy Efficiency Initiatives (102 million tons CO2)
More Efficient Lighting in Federal Buildings (5 million tons CO2)
It is assumed that federal agencies fully comply with the relevant
Executive Order by 2000. Electricity savings would be 0.05 quad.
More Efficient Lighting in Commercial Buildings (9 million tons CO2)
It is assumed that approximately one-half of buildings convert to high
efficiency lighting with an average savings of 25 percent of electrical
demand for lighting. Electricity savings are 0.125 quad.
Promotion of State Efforts to Institute Utility Integrated Resource
Planning for End-use Energy Efficiency (33 million tons CO2)
This and CO2 reductions from the Clean Air Amendments are linked.
Many states are emphasizing Integrated Resource Planning, although
methods of analysis and implementation plans are not fully developed for
all states. Due to the impetus for Clean Air Act legislation, the need for
coal/fossil fuel generation may be reduced by 10-15 percent due to
demand reduction. Supporting DOE programs would primarily include
methods development and promotional options. Hence, reductions by the
year 2000 would probably be lower than would otherwise be achieved. A
7.5 percent reduction in added demand is assumed, resulting in an
electricity savings of 0.48 quad.
Adoption of DOE Interim Building Standards by the States (30 million
tons CO2)
The DOE program includes dissemination of information and provision of
voluntary guidelines. States could transform the guidelines into
enforceable standards. Federal buildings must meet new standards
beginning in 1989. It is assumed that there would be a 50 percent
acceptance rate for new non-Federal buildings and a 20 percent demand
reduction per building. Savings would be .43 quads of electricity.
Expansion of the Energy Analysis and Diagnostic Centers to Increase
Energy Audits (22 million tons CO2)
Program expansion would occur to 40 energy efficiency engineering
centers by 2000, resulting in audits of 3 percent of eligible industrial
facilities by 2000. The estimate assumes implementation of 60 percent of
audit recommendations, with a 15 percent improvement in energy
efficiency. Total savings of all fuels would be .28 quads, including .05
quads of electricity.
Use of DOE Building Standards by HUD in Public Housing Assistance
Programs (3 million tons CO2)
Although the program is still being designed, it is assumed that it will be
successful in providing a required 25 percent efficiency increase in
buildings that are refurbished. It is projected that 1.4 million units in the
7 major public assistance programs will be retrofitted by 2000, resulting in
annual efficiency gains of 0.05 quads.
II. DOE Appliance Standards (16 million tons CO2)
The new appliance standards refer to refrigerators, freezers, clothes washers, clothes
dryers, and dishwashers. DOE appliance standards call for an increase in the efficiency
of refrigerators and freezers by 25 percent by 1993. The standards applying to
refrigerators and freezers are already in the law. It is assumed that 1993 and subsequent
model year refrigerators and freezers meet the regulation exactly. The remaining
standards are still being promulgated. All of the standards are due to take effect in
1993.
It is assumed that patterns of consumer purchases will be similar to today's buying and
replacement patterns. Annual electricity savings due to units installed by the year 2000
would be 0.15 quad.
III. DOE Renewable Initiatives (15 million tons CO2)
Expanding Hydropower Capacity (13 million tons CO2)
The DOE program involves working with permitting/development
authorities to streamline present complex processes. At maximum levels,
20,000 Mw of capacity could be added by the year 2000. It is assumed
that 25 percent of this could be realized by the year 2000, reducing fossil
energy electricity requirements by .27 quads. (EPA further reduced this
estimate by 50 percent.) Present capacity is 90,000 Mw.
Transfer of Photovoltaic Technology: (2 million tons CO2)
This estimate assumes that the U.S. initiative would be 675 Mw of
installed capacity by 2000, or a savings of .03 quads of demand for fossil
fuel electricity.
IV.
Proposed Clean Air Act Legislation and DOE Transportation Fuels Program
(63 million tons CO2)
Conservation Due to Clean Air Act Provisions on Acid Rain Controls:
(60 million tons CO2)
Clean Air Act amendments place requirements for SO₂ reduction on
present coal facilities but allow the facilities to determine how these
reductions will be met. New facilities must obtain offsetting emissions
allowances. One method to reduce emissions allowance purchase
requirements would be to reduce end-use demand supplied by older coal-
fired plants (for largest SO₂ reductions). EPA has estimated that this
reduction could be as great as 10 percent of present coal-fired generation.
Because of the linkage with state efforts to institute Utility Integrated
Resource Planning for end-use energy efficiency, the estimate here is cut
to 5 percent of present coal-fired generation, with an annual CO2
reduction of 60 million tons.
Increased Use of Biofuels for Transportation
(1 million tons CO2)
Preliminary estimates assume 10 percent ethanol fuel for 13 percent of
gasoline used in year 2000. It is also assumed that the ethanol is made
from a biomass feedstock that is replaced or recycled. This represents 50
percent of the expected oxygenated fuel required by the Clean Air Act.
10 This does not include reductions of 51 million metric tonnes due to decreases in NOₓ
(19.6 million tonnes), CO (7.4), and VOCs (23.7).
Increased Use of Natural Gas in Central Fleets Due to Clean Air Act
(2 million tons CO2)
One percent of the Nation's use of gasoline would be replaced by
compressed natural gas, providing a 20 percent decrease in CO2 for that
amount.
METHANE:
Estimates of methane (CH₄) emissions for 1987 were derived from figures provided by
DOE to the EIS of the IPCC Response Strategies Working Group. Estimates of emissions for
2000 (without current environmental commitments) were derived from the IPCC EIS and the
Agricultural Working Group. For both 1987 and 2000, the estimates were adjusted upward by 6
million tonnes by EPA to reflect its landfill estimates.
Estimates of methane emission reductions in the year 2000 were obtained from EPA's
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (OAQPS). The estimates reflect methane
reductions that arise due to a 250 Mg/yr landfill standard.
VOCs:
The estimate of 1987 VOC emissions were provided to OAQPS by E.H. Pechan &
Associates and derived from the ERCAM-VOC model. The estimate uses the 1985 NAPAP
emissions inventory as a base and (i) adjusts auto emissions using EPA's MOBILE4 model, and
(ii) includes estimates of emissions from hazardous waste treatment storage.
VOC emissions for the year 2000 (without current environmental commitments) are
assumed to remain at 1987 levels. This presumption was made in order to account for future
implementation of the current Clean Air Act.
VOC emission reductions in the year 2000 were derived by EPA/OAQPS based on
ERCAM-VOC model runs. The model runs assumed the provisions of the Senate version of
the Clean Air Act.
NO.:
1987 emission estimates for NO, were obtained from EPA (1989). Emissions in the year
2000 (without current environmental commitments) were assumed to remain at 1987 levels.
Estimates of NO, emissions reductions in 2000 were provided by OAQPS, and assumed
implementation of the Senate version of the Clean Air Act.
CO:
1987 emission estimates for carbon monoxide (CO) were obtained from EPA (1989).
Emissions in the year 2000 (without current environmental commitments) were assumed to
remain at 1987 levels. Estimates of CO emissions reductions in 2000 were provided by the EPA
Office of Mobile Sources (OMS), and assumed implementation of the Senate version of the
Clean Air Act.
N2O:
Estimates of N2O emissions for 1987 were derived from figures provided by DOE to the
EIS of the IPCC Response Strategies Working Group. Emissions in the year 2000 (without
current environmental commitments) were assumed to remain at 1987 levels. Emissions in the
year 2000 with current environmental commitments were also assumed to remain constant at
1987 levels.
CFCs:
EPA emissions estimates for 1987, 2000 (without current commitments), and 2000 with
current commitments were obtained from EPA's Office of Air and Radiation (OAR). OAR
estimates assumed that new production of CFCs declines over time, the stock of CFCs rises, and
the number of CFC substitutes increases.
Do Not Cite, Quote. or Distribute
September 18, 1990 . DRAFT #6
POLICY IMPLICATIONS OF A COMPREHENSIVE
GREENHOUSE GAS BUDGET
Alexander Cristofaro
*
Joel D. Scheraga
Office of Policy Analysis
Office of Policy, Planning and Evaluation
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
September 1990
*
The authors are grateful to Bruce Schillo, who provided valuable assistance with the
analysis and carefully reviewed earlier drafts of this manuscript. Helpful and insightful
comments on earlier drafts were also provided by Howard Gruenspecht, Dick Morgenstern,
Dennis Tirpak, Michael Shelby, Robin Miles-McLean, Paul Schwengels, Craig Ebert, Ken
Andrasko, and Barry Solomon. The views expressed are the authors' own and do not represent
the official position of the EPA.
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September 18, 1990 - DRAFT #6
POLICY IMPLICATIONS OF A COMPREHENSIVE
GREENHOUSE GAS BUDGET
ABSTRACT
A comprehensive approach that accounts for the differences in atmospheric lifetimes and
radiative forcing effects of the greenhouse gases has been implemented, using values for the
'Global Warming Potentials" of greenhouse gases recently published by the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change. Emissions of each greenhouse gas have been expressed in terms of a
common metric, "carbon equivalents," permitting the integration of all gases into an overall
greenhouse gas index.
Using the comprehensive approach, current U.S. emissions of greenhouse gases have
been estimated, and projections made of U.S. emissions in the year 2000, given particular
assumptions about future U.S. environmental initiatives and economic growth.
Given current U.S. environmental commitments, total greenhouse gas emissions
(including CFCs) will be held to 1987 levels in the year 2000. If CFCs are not included in the
total greenhouse gas budget, total emissions in the year 2000 will exceed 1987 levels by
approximately 115 million metric tonnes of carbon equivalents.
The comprehensive approach provides policymakers with a valuable analytic tool. It
provides a methodology with which they can evaluate an integrated set of policy options
intended to achieve emissions reductions of all greenhouse gases. Also, by focusing on sources
of all greenhouse gases, and not just on those that emit CO₂, it permits a consideration of a
wider diversity of policy options. This, in turn, enables policymakers to achieve reductions in
greenhouse gas emissions in a more efficient, least-cost manner. Regardless of the magnitude of
the reductions under consideration, policymakers will be able to achieve incremental reductions
in carbon equivalent emissions at the lowest marginal cost.
2
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September 18, 1990 - DRAFT #6
INTRODUCTION
Policy options for reducing greenhouse emissions may be evaluated in terms of an
integrated budget of greenhouse gases. The purpose of this paper is to present a comprehensive
approach that can account for the contributions to temperature change of all of the greenhouse
gases, and provide policymakers with a meaningful measure by which to assess and compare the
benefits of alternative policy packages for limiting greenhouse gas emissions. Although the
reduction in growth or even stabilization of emissions would not stabilize atmospheric
concentrations of the greenhouse gases, this framework provides a useful analytic tool and may
be viewed as a first step towards the development of a comprehensive and meaningful policy.
Each of the many greenhouse gases has a different atmospheric residence profile (i.e.,
lifetime) and radiative forcing potential. These gases come from diverse sources, both natural
and anthropogenic, including almost all economic sectors. Policymakers will find it difficult to
compare reduction strategies which differ in the gases targeted. Unless a single metric is found
by which to integrate the individual contributions to climate change of each of the gases, it will
be difficult to assess the total impact of policy initiatives on global climate.
The comprehensive approach used in this analysis measures the emissions of each
individual greenhouse gas in terms of a common metric: "carbon equivalents." Emissions are
then summed to yield total current greenhouse gas emissions. Implementation of this approach
is possible using values for the "Global Warming Potentials" of greenhouse gases recently
published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Projections are also made of total emissions in the year 2000, given current U.S.
commitments to environmental protection, coupled with assumptions about future U.S.
environmental initiatives. These initiatives include the America the Beautiful tree planting
program, the proposed amendments to the Clean Air Act, CFC phaseout and the Montreal
Protocol, U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) energy efficiency initiatives, DOE renewables
initiatives, DOE appliance standards, and a proposed EPA landfill regulation.
A comparison is made between what total emissions would have been in the absence of
these current U.S. environmental commitments and what they are actually expected to be. This
yields an estimate of the percentage reduction in carbon equivalents below what they would have
been in 2000 had the U.S. not taken such initiatives.
To illustrate how the comprehensive approach can be used to evaluate additional policy
initiatives to achieve further emissions reductions, a sample policy package consisting of three
additional environmental initiatives has been examined. These initiatives include energy taxes,
yet tighter landfill regulations, and a doubling of the America the Beautiful program. (They are
drawn from a larger, diverse set of options, and therefore may not be the most cost-effective
3
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September 18, 1990 . DRAFT #6
way to achieve these reductions.) This exercise illustrates how the comprehensive approach can
be used to assess reductions in emissions of all greenhouse gases, and to evaluate policies
intended to achieve carbon equivalent reductions throughout the U.S. economy.
Although this analysis does not answer the question of whether there is a global climate
change "problem" and how large greenhouse gas emission reductions should be, it does identify
an appropriate approach for integrating emissions of all gases into a single index, and for
evaluating an integrated set of policy options intended to achieve emission reductions of all
greenhouse gases in an efficient, least-cost manner.
4
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September 18, 1990 - DRAFT #6
CREATING AN INTEGRATED GREENHOUSE GAS INDEX
The scientific community has historically measured contributions to radiative forcing
using estimated changes in atmospheric concentrations. However, when discussing the various
greenhouse gases in a policy context, there is often a need for policymakers to have some means
of describing the relative abilities of emissions of each greenhouse gas to affect radiative forcing,
and hence climate, without the complex, time-consuming task of determining the impacts on
atmospheric concentrations.¹ An index that translates the level of emissions (i.e., actual
tonnage) of the various greenhouse gases into a common metric must be derived in order to
compare the climate-forcing effects of the gases. This is the approach taken in this study.²
Such an index permits a comparison of the changes in radiative forcing which arise from
increases in the concentrations of radiatively active greenhouse gases in the troposphere and
stratosphere. These include the direct effects due to growing concentrations of carbon dioxide
(CO₂), methane (CH₄), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), and nitrous oxide (N₂O). In addition, the
index permits a consideration of the indirect effects on radiative forcing that can result from
molecules that may not themselves be greenhouse gases, but which lead to chemical reactions
which create greenhouse gases. These include volatile organic compounds (VOCs), nitrogen
oxides (NOx), and carbon monoxide (CO) all of which contribute to the formation of
tropospheric ozone.
The index is called the Global Warming Potential (GWP). There is no universally
accepted methodology for combining all the relevant factors into a single global warming
potential for greenhouse gas emissions. The GWP of an individual greenhouse gas depends on
its absorptive strength within the infrared spectrum, the relative concentrations of all greenhouse
gases, its longevity and decay profile in the atmosphere, the time period over which the climate
effects are of concern, and the relative weight placed on effects at different times. As noted in
the draft IPCC Science Report (1990), the development of an index is still at an early stage, but
progress has been made and preliminary values derived (see, for example, Derwent [1990],
Fisher et al. [1990], Rodhe [1990], and Lashof and Ahuja [1990]).
For the purposes of this study (and following the methodology used in the draft IPCC
Science Report), the concept of global warming potentials is based on a comparison of the
radiative forcing effect over a period of time of the concurrent emission into the atmosphere of
an equal quantity of CO₂ and another greenhouse gas. Each gas has a different instantaneous
radiative forcing effect. In addition, the atmospheric concentration of each gas decays with
1 Theoretically, if emissions were generated whose net effect was no change in atmospheric
concentrations, the net contribution to radiative forcing would be zero.
2 Throughout this document, "tonnes" refer to metric tonnes, and "tons" refer to short tons.
5
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September 18, 1990 - DRAFT #6
effect time. In general, other greenhouse gases have a much stronger instantaneous radiative
than the than does CO₂; however, CO₂ has a longer atmospheric lifetime and a slower decay forcing
decline other greenhouse gases. Atmospheric concentrations of certain greenhouse rate
contribute due to atmospheric chemical processes, which in turn create other greenhouse gases may
to their creation or longevity. These indirect effects are included in each gas' gases GWP. or
Following this convention, the GWP is defined as the time integrated commitment
climate forcing from the instantaneous release of 1kg of a trace gas expressed relative to that to
from 1kg of carbon dioxide. This technique for measuring the GWP is, however, sensitive the
calculated), effects as illustrated in Figures 1 and 2. Figure 1 depicts the incremental radiative forcing
time horizon over which the analysis is conducted (i.e., the time period over which the integral to is
of N₂O and CH₄, assuming a 100 year horizon. Figure 2 depicts the incremental
radiative forcing effects of the two gases, assuming a 500 year horizon.
The emissions forecasts presented in this report are based on a GWP of 100
Table 1 summarizes the relative radiative forcing factors (GWPs) of key greenhouse years. gases
(assuming both a 20 year and 100 year time horizon). 3
For policy purposes, the relative importance of the different greenhouse gases depends on
A careful interpretation of the GWPs must be made when conducting policy analyses.
projected levels of emissions, their total atmospheric concentration at any point in time, as well
the as on their respective global warming potentials. One cannot conclude, for example, that CO₂ is
large current atmospheric concentration. Similarly, it is incorrect to conclude that in the short
most important greenhouse gas over the long run simply because of its long lifetime and
that run, policy instruments designed to reduce emissions of methane, tropospheric ozone, and
the CO₂ because of their relatively high GWP values. Careful attention is therefore given in
than contribute to the formation of greenhouse gases (e.g., CO, NOₓ VOCs) are more important gases
emissions. next section to defining the assumptions underlying forecasts of future greenhouse gas
3 In this analysis, it is assumed that the methane from landfills is flared, and thus converted
into CO₂. Only partial credit can be taken for the CH₄ emission reduction. A GWP of 18 was
including both direct and indirect effects, is 21. This assumes a 100 year time horizon. In the
used for methane reductions. According to the IPCC, the GWP for CH₄ on a weight basis,
from landfill calculations, it was assumed that methane is flared and converted into CO₂. The CO₂
methane has a GWP of 3 (for a 100 year time horizon). Credit for the emissions
reductions was approximated by subtracting the GWP of 3 for CO2 from the GWP of 21 for
methane, yielding the GWP of 18. Similarly, emissions of carbon monoxide in the
transportation sector are converted into CO₂. In the CO calculations for the transportation
This sector, it was assumed that CO is instantaneously converted into CO₂ in a catalytic converter.
CO₂ has a GWP of 2. Credit for the other indirect effects avoided (i.e., the impact of CO
on tropospheric ozone, GWP= was approximated with a GWP of 1.
6
GHG Time Profiles
100 Year
W m^-2 yr kg^-1
0.16
0.14
GWP of N2O =
0.12
290 relative to CO2
N2O
0.1
CH4
0.08
GWP of CH4 =
CO2
0.06
21 relative to CO2
0.04
0.02
O
100
500
Years
Radiative forcing of a gas is expressed
as a change in the flux of energy, i.e.,
watts per sq. meter per kg of gas.
FIGURE 1
GHG Time Profiles
500 Years
W m^-2 yr kg^-1
0.16
0.14
GWP of N2O =
190 relative to CO2
0.12
N2O
0.1
CH4
0.08
GWP of CH4 =
CO2
0.06
9 relative to CO2
0.04
0.02
o
500
Years
Radiative forcing of a gas is expressed
as a change in the flux of energy, i.e.,
watts per sq. meter per kg of gas.
FIGURE 2
GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIALS
INSTANTANEOUS
RADIATIVE
POTENCY OVER
POTENCY OVER
LIFETIME
FORCING
20 YEARS
100 YEARS
GAS
(years)
(relative to CO2)
(relative to CO2)
(relative to CO2)
CO2
120
1
1
1
METHANE
10
58
63
21
CFCs
7-200
1640-5800
1500-7100
430-7300
NITROUS OXIDES
150
206
270
290
OZONE
1
1600
207
57
SOURCE: IPCC draft Science Report
TABLE 1
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September 18, 1990 - DRAFT #6
CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL COMMITMENTS
ASSUMED IN THE ANALYSIS
Projections of future emissions of greenhouse gases must account for current
commitments to environmental protection that will affect greenhouse gas emissions, as well as
potential future initiatives. We present here a brief summary of the current U.S. environmental
commitments accounted for in this study. Table 2 presents the carbon equivalent emissions
reductions expected in 2000 due to these initiatives. A more detailed documentation of the
contained in the Appendix.
sources for the emissions estimates used in the analysis, as well as underlying assumptions, is
Tree Initiative
The America the Beautiful reforestation initiative (currently under consideration by
Congress) set a goal of planting one billion trees per year on 1.5 million acres, for ten to twenty
years beginning in 1991, and to improve forest management practices on an additional 100,000
acres per year. The total program could sequester approximately 50 million tons of carbon per
year by the year 2010, or between 4-5 percent of current net U.S. CO₂ emissions of carbon.
Reforestation options differ from other emissions reduction or sequestration options
because of: (i) the long time frames required for both planting and growing trees (10 years to
plant large acreages, and 30 years to grow to maturity), and (ii) the nonlinear shape of the
carbon benefit curve, with only small offset potential in near-term years, but large potential in
later years once all trees are planted and have grown. The program is targeted to first utilize
low-productivity, economically marginal or environmentally sensitive lands (i.e., lands with low
opportunity costs), and then attract more expensive lands in later stages.
7
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September 18, 1990 - DRAFT #6
TABLE 2
EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS EXPECTED IN THE YEAR 2000
DUE TO CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL COMMITMENTS
AND OTHER INITIATIVES ASSUMED IN THE ANALYSIS
CURRENT
MILLIONS OF TONNES REDUCED
COMMITMENTS
(Carbon Equivalents)
2000⁴
0
TREE INITIATIVE
~9
0
DOE ENERGY EFFICIENCY
INITIATIVES
28
0
DOE APPLIANCE STANDARDS
4
0
DOE RENEWABLE INITIATIVES
4
0
CLEAN AIR ACT
17
0
LANDFILL REGULATION
44
0
CFC PHASEOUT &
MONTREAL PROTOCOL
551
4 Assumes a 100 year time horizon in GWP calculations.
8
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September 18, 1990 - DRAFT #6
The following estimates have been made of the CO₂ offset benefits and costs for U.S.
reforestation initiative options (Moulton et al., 1990):
% Offset (in
Million
Million
2030) of U.S.
Total Annual
Tons C
Tons C
CO2 Emissions
Program Cost
(2000)
(2030)
(2000)⁵
5
9
55-69
10
$545 mill.
18
110-138
20
$1.4 bill.
36
220-276
$3.7 bill.
DOE Energy Efficiency Initiatives, Renewable Initiatives, and Appliance Standards
The DOE energy efficiency initiatives include more efficient lighting in Federal and
commercial buildings, promotion of state least-cost utility planning, state adoption of interim
power the transfer of photovoltaic technology.
standards. and Also included are DOE renewable initiatives, including expanded use of hydroelectric
building standards, energy analysis and diagnostic centers, and HUD adoption of DOE building
Estimates of reductions in the year 2000 due to these initiatives were taken from
numbers provided by DOE. Estimates of reductions in the year 2000 due to the renewable
initiatives are also taken from data provided by DOE, except that expanded hydropower
capacity was assumed to produce only half of the reduction estimated by DOE.
and dishwashers. Estimates of reductions in the year 2000 due to revised standards for these
Revised DOE appliance standards apply to refrigerators and freezers, washers, dryers,
the four appliance groups were taken from DOE Technical Support Documents published as part of
rulemaking process.
5 These estimates are based on amortized costs over 40 years, discounted at a 10
real rate. It is assumed that it will take 10 years to plant the trees, beginning in 1990, percent and 30
years for the trees to grow to maturity in 2030. The range of carbon sequestration given
assumes current sequestration rates of existing seedling stock (low estimate). An
carbon sequestration of 1.8-2.2 tons carbon per acre per year is assumed, varying by average site index
(growth conditions for appropriate species).
9
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September 18, 1990 - DRAFT #6
These data are summarized in Table 3. Further documentation of the sources for these
estimates and underlying assumptions is contained in the Appendix.
Clean Air Act
and VOCs, as well as other criteria air pollutants. 6 NOₓ reductions are projected to come from
The new Clean Air Act initiative will result in emission reductions for CO2, NOₓ CO,
controls on motor vehicles, utilities, non-utility point sources, and area sources. VOC reductions
from automobile fleet turnover, the cold temperature rule, and an oxygenated fuels
are expected to come from control on motor vehicles. Reductions in CO are expected to come
(and summarized in Table 3).
Estimates of CO₂ emissions reductions in the year 2000 were taken from data provided program. by DOE
emissions rates are projected to remain unchanged through 2000.
To be consistent with EPA national air pollutant emission estimates (EPA, 1989), N2O
Landfill Regulation
There are approximately 6000 active landfills in the United States. Most landfills
that relatively small (i.e., 70 percent contain less than one million tons). Landfills are "bioreactors" are
methane. generate 255,000 Mg/yr of non-methane organic emissions, as well as 10.5 million Mg/yr of
Landfill control includes (i) collection of landfill gases by wells, and (ii) combustion
and converted into CO₂.
recovery of these gases. In this analysis, it is assumed that the methane from landfills is flared or
methane in 2000.
The proposed landfill regulation results in approximately a 9 million tonne reduction in
CFC Phase out & Montreal Protocol
Layer" (or the Montreal Protocol) came into force. The major provisions of the Protocol
On January 1, 1989, the "Montreal Protocol on Substances That Deplete the Ozone
affecting U.S. emissions include a 50% reduction from 1986 levels in the use of CFC-11, -12, -
levels starting in approximately 1992.
113, -114, and -115 by 1998, and a freeze on the use of Halon 1211, 1301, and 2402 at 1986
6 For this analysis, the Senate version of the Clean Air Act is assumed.
10
DOE-RELATED CO, EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS
USED IN EPA'S GHG EMISSIONS INVENTORY
ACTION/PROGRAM
2000
CO2
Carbon
DOE Appliance Standards
16.0
4.4
(Refrigerators, Washers,
Dryers, Dishwashers)
DOE Efficiency Initiatives
102.0
27.8
Federal Buildings Lighting
5.0
1.4
Commercial Buildings Lighting
9.0
2.5
Promote State LCUP
33.0
9.0
State Adoption of Interim
30.0
8.2
Building Standards
Energy Analysis and
22.0
6.0
Diagnostic Centers
HUD Adoption of DOE
3.0
0.8
Building Standards
DOE Renewable Initiatives
15.0
4.1
Expanded Hydro Power
13.0
3.5
Photovoltaic Technology
2.0
0.5
Transfer
*
Clean Air Act
63.0
17.2
Acid Rain
60.0
16.4
Transportation Biofuels
3.0
0.8
and Natural Gas Use
GRAND TOTAL
196.0
53.5
*
Does not include reductions of 51 million metric tonnes due to decreases
in NOX (19.6 million tonnes), CO (7.4), and VOCs (23.7).
TABLE 3
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A possible phase out of controlled CFCs and halons by 2000 is being considered by the
U.S. and several other countries. This would eliminate 95 percent of the radiative forcing due
to CFC emissions (in 2000).
The CFCs included in this study are CFC-11, -12, -113, -114, HCFC-22, CCI₄, HCFC-
134, HCFC-141b, and HCFC-124.
11
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EMISSIONS PROJECTIONS
Emissions Given Current Environmental Commitments
Figure 3 depicts EPA estimates of the current status of emissions of greenhouse gases.
Total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, expressed in terms of carbon equivalents, are 2328 million
metric tonnes. CO₂ emissions account for 56 percent of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions.
Figure 4 depicts EPA estimates of projected emissions in the year 2000, given current
commitments to environmental protection. Each estimate depends on an underlying assumption
about growth in economic activity. In general, year 2000 emissions would be higher if the
economy grew faster. Each estimate is also sensitive to other key influences, such as oil prices.
Analysis using the comprehensive approach reveals that total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in
2000 will be equivalent to 2332 million tonnes of carbon.
A comparison of emissions in 1987 with those in 2000 reveals total emissions in the year
2000 will be held to 1987 levels. (This does not imply, however, that total emissions will be
stabilized at 1987 levels beyond the year 2000.) The difference between emissions in 1987 and
2000 is 4 million metric tonnes of carbon equivalent (within the range of uncertainty of the
estimates). (If only direct CO₂ emissions are considered, CO₂ emissions in 2000 will still be
about 15 percent higher than 1987 levels.) If CFCs are not included in the total greenhouse gas
budget, total emissions in the year 2000 will exceed 1987 levels by 115 million tonnes of carbon
equivalents.
Conclusion: Analysis reveals that given current environmental commitments, coupled
with additional possible environmental initiatives, the U.S. contribution
to the total budget of greenhouse gases will be held at 1987 levels in the
year 2000 (if CFCs are included in the total greenhouse gas budget).
This result is sensitive to underlying assumptions about economic growth
and other key factors, such as oil prices.
Table 4 provides information on the percentage contribution to global warming potential
of U.S. emissions of key individual greenhouse gases included in this study. Individual
contributions are calculated by multiplying emission levels by GWPs. Percentages are calculated
for current (1987) U.S. emissions as estimated by EPA, and for projected emissions in the year
2000, accounting for current U.S. environmental commitments and possible additional
12
Current Emissions
1987
(100 Year GWP Factors)
Carbon Equivalents - - Millions of Tonnes
3000
CFC
N2O
2000
CO
NO x
VOCs
CH4
CO₂
1000
0
1987
CO₂
1310
CH₄
235
VOCs
72
NOₓ
218
CO
52
N2O
74
CFC
367
Total
2328
FIGURE 3
Emissions
(With Current Commitments)
(100 Year GWP Factors)
Carbon Equivalents - Millions of Tonnes
3000
CFC
2000
N₂ O
CO
NOₓ
VOCs
1000
CH
4
CO,
2
0
1987
2000
1987
2000
CO
1310
1503
2
CH4
234
208
VOCs
72
48
NOₓ
218
199
CO
52
45
N2O
74
74
CFC
367
256
Total
2328
2332
FIGURE 4
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environmental initiatives. For the purposes of comparison, percentages for worldwide emissions
are also calculated for 1990, based upon IPCC emission projections.
TABLE 4
PERCENTAGE CONTRIBUTION TO GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIAL
OF INDIVIDUAL GASES
(100 GWP)
U.S.
Worldwide
Emissions
Emissions
EPA
EPA
2000
IPCC
GAS
1987
(w/commitments)
1990
CO₂
56
64
61
CH₄
10
9
15
N₂O
3
3
4
CO
2
2
1
NOₓ
9
9
6
CFC-11
2
2
2
CFC-12
9
6
7
CFC-113
1.1
2.6
0.4
CFC-114
2.8
0
1.5
HCFC-22
0.4
0
0.2
CCl₄
0.4
0.2
0.3
13
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Emissions in the Absence of Current Environmental Commitments
It is instructive to forecast what emissions would have been in the year 2000, had current
commitments not been made by the U.S.⁷ These projections are presented in Figure 5. A
comparison of Figures 4 and 5 reveals that current U.S. environmental commitments, coupled
with additional possible initiatives, will yield a 24 percent reduction in carbon equivalent
emissions below what they would have been in 2000.
A close examination of U.S. emission trends in the individual greenhouse gases reveals
the importance of CFC phaseout and the Montreal Protocol. The total contribution of CFCs to
the greenhouse budget in 1987 was 367 million tonnes of carbon. In the absence of the
Montreal Protocol and CFC phaseout, emissions of this gas would grow to 807 million tonnes of
carbon. With current commitments to phaseout, emissions of CFCs will decline to 256 million
tonnes of carbon by 2000.
Conclusion: Analysis reveals that current U.S. environmental commitments, coupled
with additional possible initiatives, yields a 24 percent emissions
actions. reduction below what they would have been in the absence of these U.S.
7 Credit is only being taken for the contributions from these initiatives from 1987 forward.
14
Emissions
(Without Current Commitments)
(100 Year GWP Factors)
Carbon Equivalents - Millions of Tonnes
4000
CFC
3000
N₂O
CO
NOₓ
2000
VOCs
CH4
CO₂
1000
0
1987
2000
1987
2000
CO₂
1310
1565
CH₄
235
252
VOCs
72
72
NOₓ
218
218
CO
52
52
N₂O
74
74
CFC
367
807
Total
2328
3040
FIGURE 5
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ADDITIONAL POLICY INITIATIVES
EPA has investigated additional policy options that could hold the greenhouse gas
emissions index in the year 2000 at 1987 levels, and help maintain this emissions rate beyond
2000. This analysis included tax and nontax initiatives.
TAX INITIATIVES
Two sets of tax-based policy options were considered for reducing CO₂ emissions. The
first set of options consist of transportation taxes: a federal gasoline tax, and an oil import fee.
The second set of taxes consist of general carbon taxes on fossil fuels. Estimates were made of
total annual carbon reductions in the year 2000, annual tax revenues, and the change in GNP.
Transportation Taxes
To estimate the effects of a federal gasoline tax and an oil import fee, the Data
Resources Incorporated (DRI) Transportation model was employed. 8 In both cases, it was
assumed that the taxes were phased in over time.
Results for the transportation taxes are presented in Table 5. A $0.33/gallon tax on
gasoline (equivalent to a $120/ton carbon tax) would reduce emissions of carbon by 16 million
tonnes, which is more than sufficient to ensure that total emissions will be held at 1987 levels in
the year 2000. The total effect on GNP would be a 0.3 percent annual decrease. To the extent
that GNP is a measure of social welfare, this suggests that society will be worse off by 0.3
percent per year. It is important to note, however, that this GNP measure does not capture the
social benefits (e.g., due to environmental protection) that accrue from the carbon reductions.
A phased-in oil import fee of $6.00/barrel would also yield significant carbon reductions
of 30 million tonnes per year, at a cost to society of a 0.6 percent annual reduction in GNP.
Both transportation taxes yield significant annual tax revenues. The $0.33/gal. gasoline
tax would yield $35 billion of revenues, while the import fee would yield $23 billion in tax
revenues.
8 The results presented here are preliminary DRI model estimates.
15
TRANSPORTATION TAXES
FOR THE YEAR 2000
(all numbers in constant 1989 dollars)
Annual Revenues
Carbon Reductions
GNP Change
(Bill. $'s)
(Mill. tons)
(Percent)
Comments
Gasoline Tax
(Phased-in)
$0.33/Gal.
35
18
-0.3
DRI
($120/ton carbon)
interim
results
$1.24/Gal
103
86
-2.0
DRI
($452/ton carbon)
interim
results
Oil Import Fee
(Phased-in)
$6.00/Barrel
23
33
-0.6
DRI
($50/ton carbon)
interim
results
TABLE 5
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Carbon Taxes
Three models were used to estimate the effects of carbon taxes: the Manne-Richels
Global 2100 model, the Dynamic General Equilibrium Model (DGEM) developed by Dale
Jorgenson (Harvard), and the DRI national energy model. A range of taxes were examined,
from $5.00/ton carbon to $25.00/ton. 9 (Using the DRI model, estimates were also made of the
gasoline tax that would yield similar impacts as each carbon tax.)
Results for the three models are presented in Table 6. The Manne-Richels model
suggests that a carbon tax will generally be less efficacious in achieving carbon reductions than is
suggested by either the DRI or DGEM models. Manne-Richels suggest that a $5/ton tax will
result in approximately a 9 million tonne reduction in carbon, as compared to the 25 million
tonne reduction predicted by DRI and a 62 million tonne reduction forecast by DGEM.
Nevertheless, this $5/ton tax is sufficient to achieve the 4 million tonne reduction in carbon
emissions necessary to hold year 2000 emissions at 1987 levels.
Results from the DGEM model suggest that the long-run GNP effects of a carbon tax
will be small. DGEM results suggest that a $25/ton carbon tax will result in "only" a 0.2 percent
annual decrease in GNP. Manne and Richels have also estimated that the projected GNP loss
associated with a $5/ton carbon tax would be "negligible," assuming that increased taxes are
employed for deficit reduction, and that this in turn will stimulate private investment.
It is important to note, however, that the short-run fluctuations in GNP forecast by the
models differ dramatically because of structural differences in the models. As reported in
Montgomery (1990), the DRI model projects much larger short-run effects of a CO₂ charge due
to higher energy prices that stimulate a wage-price spiral. In the long-run, however, reduced
interest rates lead to higher investment and significant improvement in GNP growth. In
contrast, the immediate impact shown in the DGEM model occurs simply because the model
ignores short-term difficulties in adjustment, focusing on long-run responses.
A comparison can be made of the effects of the transportation and carbon taxes (as
estimated by the DRI models). A $5.00 per ton carbon tax is equivalent to a 1 cent/gal.
gasoline tax. Yet, the carbon tax will yield 25 million tonnes of carbon emissions reductions,
whereas a $0.33/gal. gasoline tax will only yield 16 million tonnes of carbon reductions. This
result is not surprising given the multi-sectoral impacts of a carbon tax (which is imposed on all
fossil fuels), as opposed to the gasoline tax which only affects the transportation sector.
It is important to note that distributional and equity issues have not yet been examined.
For example, a carbon tax on fossil fuels will likely have significant impacts on the levels of
output and employment in the coal industry, which are not captured in this analysis. Further, a
carbon tax unilaterally imposed on U.S. production may lead to an "exportation" of energy-
9 A thorough description and comparison of these models is contained in Montgomery
(March 1990).
16
ENERGY TAXES
Carbon
Annual Revenues
Carbon Reductions
GNP Change
Tax per ton
2000 (Bill. $)
(Mill. tons)
(Percent)
Comments
Manne-Richels
$5.00
7
10
not available
Provided to
EPA by
$10.00
14
20
not available
authors
$15.00
20
30
not available
DRI
$5.00
8
27
not available
GNP losses
(1 cent/gal.)
likely to be
$10.00
11
54
not available
larger than
(3 cent/gal.)
Manne-
$15.00
23
82
not available
Richels or
(4 cent/gal.)
Jorgenson
$25.00
38
136
not available
Interpo-
(6 cent/gal.)
lated by
EPA
Jorgenson
$5.00
10
68
0.1
Interpo-
lated by
$10.00
14
136
0.1
EPA
$15.00
30
200
0.2
$25.00
50
272
0.2
TABLE 6
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intensive production to other countries. Such a shift may lead to increased carbon emissions in
other countries, offsetting the benefits gained from the tax in the U.S.
NONTAX INITIATIVES
Several potential nontax initiatives have also been examined that could yield significant
additional carbon reductions by the year 2000. These include tighter landfill regulations and the
planting of more trees. These initiatives are summarized in Table 7. Several other energy
sector options that are currently under investigation by EPA are presented as illustrations of
alternative sources for emissions reductions.
If regulations to limit methane emissions from landfills were tightened beyond pending
EPA regulations, an additional 39 million tonne reduction in carbon equivalent emissions could
be achieved, at an annual cost of $431 million dollars. If the America the Beautiful commitment
were doubled, so that an additional one billion trees were planted per year, an additional
reduction of 9 million tonnes of carbon could be attained at an annual cost of $850 million.
The results for these case studies are presented to illustrate: (i) how the comprehensive
approach can be used to assess reductions in emissions of all greenhouse gases, and to evaluate
policies intended to achieve carbon equivalent reductions throughout the U.S. economy; (ii) that
a diversity of sources exist from which reductions in greenhouse gas emissions can be achieved;
and (iii) that many of these are cost-effective or low-cost options. No attempt, however, has
been made in this analysis to measure the net benefits of any particular package of policy
options.
17
POTENTIAL NONTAX INITIATIVES -- 2000
CARBON
ANNUAL
TONNES
COSTS
REDUCED
(millions)
COMMENTS
TIGHTER LANDFILL
39
$431
Tighten beyond pending
EPA regulations
REGULATION
MORE TREES
9
$850
Double America the Beautiful
commitment
Energy Sector Options
UTILITY-BASED
?
?
Provide incentives for use
of cost-effective energy-
INCENTIVE PROGRAMS
saving technologies in
residential sector; beyond
currently proposed DOE
standards.
COMMERCIAL LIGHTING
?
?
Technologies not currently
covered by DOE standards.
& FAN MOTOR
STANDARDS
BIOMASS ELECTRICITY
?
?
Short-rotation biomass and
ISTIG demonstration
PROJECT
programs.
TABLE 7
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CONCLUSIONS
Several major conclusions emerge from this study:
o
In the evaluation of policy options for reducing greenhouse emissions, it is
necessary to assess an integrated budget of all greenhouse gases. A
comprehensive approach has been developed that accounts for the differences in
atmospheric lifetimes and radiative forcing effects of greenhouse gases (including
those gases which through chemical interactions affect concentrations of direct
greenhouse gases), and expresses emissions of each greenhouse gas in terms of a
common metric ("carbon equivalents"). Emissions of all greenhouse gases can
then be integrated into an overall greenhouse gas budget.
o
An assessment of current (1987) emissions using the comprehensive approach
indicates that total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, expressed in terms of carbon
equivalents, are 2328 million tonnes (assuming a 100 year Global Warming
Potential [GWP]). CO₂ emissions account for 56 percent of total U.S.
greenhouse gas emissions.
0
Given current U.S. environmental commitments, and assumptions made regarding
growth in economic activity and energy price developments, coupled with
additional environmental initiatives, total emissions (as opposed to atmospheric
concentrations) will be held at 1987 levels in the year 2000. (This does not imply,
however, that total emissions will be stabilized at 1987 levels beyond the year
2000.) Analysis using the comprehensive approach reveals that total greenhouse
gas emissions in 2000 would be equivalent to 2332 million tonnes of carbon.
(Direct CO₂ emissions will still be about 15 percent higher than 1987 levels.)
0
These environmental commitments, coupled with additional initiatives, will yield a
24 percent reduction in carbon equivalent emissions below what they otherwise
would have been in 2000 in the absence of such initiatives. The programs
accounting for this reduction include the Montreal Protocol and CFC phaseout,
the Clean Air Act, DOE initiatives, the America the Beautiful tree planting
program, and pending EPA landfill controls.
0
A close examination of emissions trends in the individual greenhouse gases
reveals the importance of the Montreal Protocol and CFC phaseout. The total
contribution of CFCs to the greenhouse budget in 1987 was 367 million tonnes of
carbon equivalents. It is estimated that in the absence of the Montreal Protocol
and CFC phaseout, emissions of this gas would grow to 807 million tonnes of
18
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September 18, 1990 - DRAFT #6
carbon equivalents. With current commitments to phaseout, emissions of CFCs
will decline to 256 million tonnes of carbon equivalents by 2000.
0
The comprehensive assessment approach reveals that three additional policy
initiatives can ensure that emissions will be held to 1987 levels in the year 2000.
These initiatives include energy taxes, yet tighter landfill regulations, and a
doubling of the America the Beautiful tree planting program.
These results have important implications for the formulation of both domestic and
international policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. First, it suggests the importance of
considering greenhouse gases other than just CO₂. The comprehensive approach used here
enables one to focus on the diverse sources of greenhouse gases other than just those that emit
CO₂. (This will also help ensure that an undue burden is not placed on those industries that
emit CO₂, such as those that are energy intensive and burn fossil fuels.) Many opportunities
exist for achieving carbon equivalent reductions throughout the U.S. economy.
Finally, the comprehensive approach enables the U.S. and other countries to achieve
greenhouse gas emissions reductions in a least-cost manner. It permits a country to achieve
those reductions through limits on emissions of a diversity of greenhouse gases, some of which
may be cheaper to control than others. Countries will be able to achieve incremental reductions
in carbon equivalent emissions at the lowest marginal cost.
19
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APPENDIX
SOURCES OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS ESTIMATES
The following appendix documents the sources of the emissions estimates for each of the
greenhouse gases, as well as important underlying assumptions. Documentation is presented
for: (i) the 1987 "base case," (ii) emissions in 2000 without current environmental
commitments, and (iii) emissions in 2000 with current environmental commitments.
CO2:
Estimates of CO₂ emissions for 1987 and 2000 (without current environmental
commitments) were derived from figures provided by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to
the Energy and Industry Subgroup (EIS) of the Response Strategies Working Group of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
CO₂ emissions reductions in the year 2000 were estimated by DOE for the following
current environmental commitments:
0
DOE Energy Efficiency Initiatives
0
DOE Appliance Standards
0
DOE Renewable Initiatives
0
Proposed Clean Air Act Legislation and DOE Transportation Fuels
Program
A detailed discussion of each of these initiatives follows:
I.
DOE Energy Efficiency Initiatives (102 million tons CO2)
More Efficient Lighting in Federal Buildings (5 million tons CO2)
It is assumed that federal agencies fully comply with the relevant
Executive Order by 2000. Electricity savings would be 0.05 quad.
20
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More Efficient Lighting in Commercial Buildings (9 million tons CO2)
It is assumed that approximately one-half of buildings convert to high
efficiency lighting with an average savings of 25 percent of electrical
demand for lighting. Electricity savings are 0.125 quad.
Promotion of State Efforts to Institute Utility Integrated Resource
Planning for End-use Energy Efficiency (33 million tons CO2)
This and CO₂ reductions from the Clean Air Amendments are linked.
Many states are emphasizing Integrated Resource Planning, although
methods of analysis and implementation plans are not fully developed for
all states. Due to the impetus for Clean Air Act legislation, the need for
coal/fossil fuel generation may be reduced by 10-15 percent due to
demand reduction. Supporting DOE programs would primarily include
methods development and promotional options. Hence, reductions by the
year 2000 would probably be lower than would otherwise be achieved. A
7.5 percent reduction in added demand is assumed, resulting in an
electricity savings of 0.48 quad.
Adoption of DOE Interim Building Standards by the States (30 million
tons CO2)
The DOE program includes dissemination of information and provision of
voluntary guidelines. States could transform the guidelines into
enforceable standards. Federal buildings must meet new standards
beginning in 1989. It is assumed that there would be a 50 percent
acceptance rate for new non-Federal buildings and a 20 percent demand
reduction per building. Savings would be .43 quads of electricity.
Expansion of the Energy Analysis and Diagnostic Centers to Increase
Energy Audits (22 million tons CO2)
Program expansion would occur to 40 energy efficiency engineering
centers by 2000, resulting in audits of 3 percent of eligible industrial
facilities by 2000. The estimate assumes implementation of 60 percent of
audit recommendations, with a 15 percent improvement in energy
efficiency. Total savings of all fuels would be .28 quads, including .05
quads of electricity.
21
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Use of DOE Building Standards by HUD in Public Housing Assistance
Programs (3 million tons CO2)
Although the program is still being designed, it is assumed that it will be
successful in providing a required 25 percent efficiency increase in
buildings that are refurbished. It is projected that 1.4 million units in the
7 major public assistance programs will be retrofitted by 2000, resulting in
annual efficiency gains of 0.05 quads.
II. DOE Appliance Standards (16 million tons CO₂)
The new appliance standards refer to refrigerators, freezers, clothes washers, clothes
dryers, and dishwashers. DOE appliance standards call for an increase in the efficiency
of refrigerators and freezers by 25 percent by 1993. The standards applying to
refrigerators and freezers are already in the law. It is assumed that 1993 and subsequent
model year refrigerators and freezers meet the regulation exactly. The remaining
standards 1993. are still being promulgated. All of the standards are due to take effect in
It is assumed that patterns of consumer purchases will be similar to today's buying and
would be 0.15 quad.
replacement patterns. Annual electricity savings due to units installed by the year 2000
III. DOE Renewable Initiatives (15 million tons CO2)
Expanding Hydropower Capacity (13 million tons CO2)
The DOE program involves working with permitting/development
authorities to streamline present complex processes. At maximum levels,
20,000 Mw of capacity could be added by the year 2000. It is assumed
that 25 percent of this could be realized by the year 2000, reducing fossil
energy electricity requirements by .27 quads. (EPA further reduced this
estimate by 50 percent.) Present capacity is 90,000 Mw.
22
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Transfer of Photovoltaic Technology: (2 million tons CO2)
This estimate assumes that the U.S. initiative would be 675 Mw of
installed capacity by 2000, or a savings of .03 quads of demand for fossil
fuel electricity.
IV.
Proposed Clean Air Act 10 Legislation and DOE Transportation Fuels Program
(63 million tons CO2)
Conservation Due to Clean Air Act Provisions on Acid Rain Controls:
(60 million tons CO2)
Clean Air Act amendments place requirements for SO₂ reduction on
present coal facilities but allow the facilities to determine how these
reductions will be met. New facilities must obtain offsetting emissions
allowances. One method to reduce emissions allowance purchase
requirements would be to reduce end-use demand supplied by older coal-
fired plants (for largest SO₂ reductions). EPA has estimated that this
reduction could be as great as 10 percent of present coal-fired generation.
Because of the linkage with state efforts to institute Utility Integrated
Resource Planning for end-use energy efficiency, the estimate here is cut
reduction of 60 million tons.
to 5 percent of present coal-fired generation, with an annual CO₂
Increased Use of Biofuels for Transportation
(1 million tons CO2)
Preliminary estimates assume 10 percent ethanol fuel for 13 percent of
gasoline used in year 2000. It is also assumed that the ethanol is made
from a biomass feedstock that is replaced or recycled. This represents 50
percent of the expected oxygenated fuel required by the Clean Air Act.
(19.6 million tonnes), CO (7.4), and VOCs (23.7).
10 This does not include reductions of 51 million metric tonnes due to decreases in NOₓ
23
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Increased Use of Natural Gas in Central Fleets Due to Clean Air Act
(2 million tons CO2)
One percent of the Nation's use of gasoline would be replaced by
compressed natural gas, providing a 20 percent decrease in CO₂ for that
amount.
METHANE:
Estimates of methane (CH₄) emissions for 1987 were derived from figures provided by
DOE to the EIS of the IPCC Response Strategies Working Group. Estimates of emissions for
2000 (without current environmental commitments) were derived from the IPCC EIS and the
Agricultural Working Group. For both 1987 and 2000, the estimates were adjusted upward by 6
million tonnes by EPA to reflect its landfill estimates.
Estimates of methane emission reductions in the year 2000 were obtained from EPA's
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (OAQPS). The estimates reflect methane
reductions that arise due to a 250 Mg/yr landfill standard.
VOCs:
The estimate of 1987 VOC emissions were provided to OAQPS by E.H. Pechan &
Associates and derived from the ERCAM-VOC model. The estimate uses the 1985 NAPAP
emissions inventory as a base and (i) adjusts auto emissions using EPA's MOBILE4 model, and
(ii) includes estimates of emissions from hazardous waste treatment storage.
VOC emissions for the year 2000 (without current environmental commitments) are
assumed to remain at 1987 levels. This presumption was made in order to account for future
implementation of the current Clean Air Act.
VOC emission reductions in the year 2000 were derived by EPA/OAQPS based on
ERCAM-VOC model runs. The model runs assumed the provisions of the Senate version of
the Clean Air Act.
24
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September 18, 1990 - DRAFT #6
NOx:
1987 emission estimates for NOₓ were obtained from EPA (1989). Emissions in the year
2000 (without current environmental commitments) were assumed to remain at 1987 levels.
Estimates of NOₓ emissions reductions in 2000 were provided by OAQPS, and assumed
implementation of the Senate version of the Clean Air Act.
CO:
1987 emission estimates for carbon monoxide (CO) were obtained from EPA (1989).
Emissions in the year 2000 (without current environmental commitments) were assumed to
remain at 1987 levels. Estimates of CO emissions reductions in 2000 were provided by the EPA
Office of Mobile Sources (OMS), and assumed implementation of the Senate version of the
Clean Air Act.
N2O:
Estimates of N2O emissions for 1987 were derived from figures provided by DOE to the
EIS of the IPCC Response Strategies Working Group. Emissions in the year 2000 (without
current environmental commitments) were assumed to remain at 1987 levels. Emissions in the
year 2000 with current environmental commitments were also assumed to remain constant at
1987 levels.
CFCs:
EPA emissions estimates for 1987, 2000 (without current commitments), and 2000 with
current commitments were obtained from EPA's Office of Air and Radiation (OAR). OAR
estimates assumed that new production of CFCs declines over time, the stock of CFCs rises, and
the number of CFC substitutes increases.
25
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September 18, 1990 - DRAFT #6
REFERENCES
Derwent, R.G., "Trace Gases and Their Relative Contribution to the Greenhouse Effect,"
Atomic Energy Establishment, Harwell, Oxon, Report AERE-R13716, 1990.
Egan. John, "Turning Green? DOE Embraces Renewables and Efficiency," The Energy Daily,
Vol. 18, No. 19, January 29, 1990, 1-3.
Fisher, D.A., Hales, C.H., Wang, W-C., Ko, M.K.W., and N.D. Sze, "Model Calculations of the
Relative Effects of CFCs and Their Replacements on Global Warming," Nature, Vol. 344, 1990,
513-516.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "Policymakers Summary," Working Group III:
Response Strategies Working Group, Draft report, May 1, 1990.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Draft report of Working Group III: Response
Strategies Working Group, May 16, 1990.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "Energy and Industry Subgroup Report," Draft
report, 1990.
Lashof, D.A., and D.R. Ahuja, "Relative Contributions of Greenhouse Gas Emissions to Global
Warming," Nature, Vol. 344, April 5, 1990, 529-531.
Manne, A.S., and R.G. Richels, "Global 2100 Calculations - Alternative Carbon Tax Rates,"
memorandum to EPA Office of Policy, Planning and Evaluation, May 13, 1990.
Manne, A.S., and R.G. Richels, "Global CO₂ Emission Reductions - the Impacts of Rising
Energy Costs," draft manuscript, February 1990.
Manne, A.S., and R.G. Richels, "CO2 Emission Limits: An Economic Cost Analysis for the
USA," The Energy Journal, forthcoming.
Montgomery, W.D., "Effects on Energy Markets and the U.S. Economy of Measures to Reduce
CO₂ Emissions from Fossil Fuels," draft paper presented at the MIT Conference on Energy and
Technology in the 21st Century, March 1990.
Moulton, R.J., and K. Andrasko, "Reforestation," EPA Journal, Vol. 16, No. 2, March/April
1990, 14-16.
26
Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute
September 18, 1990 - DRAFT #6
Rodhe, H., "A Comparison of the Contribution of Various Gases to the Greenhouse Effect,"
Science, forthcoming, 1990.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, "National Air Pollutant Emission Estimates, 1940-1987,"
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, March
1989.
27
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
February 26, 1990
MEMORANDUM FOR JOHN H. SUNUNU
FROM:
D. ALLAN BROMLEY Ada
SUBJECT:
PROPOSED LETTER TO EDITOR
Herewith a rough draft of a letter that I would propose sending to a
relatively long list of editors in response to the recent spate of negative
editorials concerning the Bush Administration's response to
environmental issues.
Any suggestions concerning changes or additions that would strengthen
the letter would be much appreciated.
Thank you.
DRAFT
To the Editor:
Recent claims which portray President Bush as any less than a leader
committed to protecting the environment are totally unfounded. During his first year
in office, the President has taken significant steps to address environmental concerns
as vital global issues.
The President's FY 1991 budget proposes over $2 billion in new spending to
protect the environment and over $1 billion for global change research. This is ten
times as much as any other nation in the world is spending to protect the
environment. In addition:
By elevating the Environmental Protection Agency to Cabinet level the
President communicates his unmistakable concern for environmental
problem areas such as clean air, clean water and hazardous waste.
The Bush Administration is strongly dedicated to achieving the goal of "no
net loss" of our nation's wetlands.
The President's "America the Beautiful" initiative will expand federal
parkland, wildlife refuges, forests and other public lands, and establish a
new reforestation program that calls for the planting of more than one
billion new trees a year.
The Bush Administration is committed to the phase-out of both production
and use of chloro-fluorocarbons that constitute 25 percent of U.S.
greenhouse gas emission before 2000 -- ahead of the requirements of the
Montreal Protocol.
The President has instructed his Secretary of Energy, Admiral James
Watkins to develop a new National Energy Strategy that focusses on
aggressive energy conservation and the development of alternatives to fossil
fuel combustion -- both resulting in reduced carbon dioxide emission.
In April, 1990 the President will host his first White House Conference.
The topic will be Science and Economics Research Relating to Global
Change. This conference will support the ongoing work of the UN-
sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the
President's strong conviction that US policies in this area must be based on
sound science and sound economics.
At Malta in December 1989, and in an address to the IPCC plenary meeting
in Washington last week, the President invited the nations of the world to
hold the first negotiating session for the Framework Convention on Global
Change in Washington in late 1990 or early 1991 following completion of
the first phase of the IPCC activities.
Finally, the President supports enactment of tough new Clean Air requirements to
reduce acid rain, urban smog and air pollution in a cost effective manner.
Enactment of this legislation is one of the President's chief legislative priorities for
the year.
Sincerely,
D. Allan Bromley
Assistant to the President
for
Science and Technology
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
DATE: February 13, 1990
TO:
Dr. Allan Bromley
FROM:
GOVERNOR JOHN H. SUNUNU
What is your recommendation?
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SMITHSONIAN INSTITUTION
Washington, D.C. 20560
U.S.A.
February 9, 1990
Honorable John H. Sununu
Chief of Staff
The White House
Washington, DC 20500
Dear John:
Enclosed please find a copy of my letter to the Vice
President as you suggested.
Please note that in addition to the Amazon project it
includes a modest project for Czechoslovakia. Martin Harwit who
directs the National Air and Space Museum (and is Czech born) had
a visit recently from Ivan Havel, brother of President Havel, who
himself will be visiting Washington shortly. This would seem a
good little project that the United States could do to help with
the massive environmental problems that country is facing.
During the break at Camp David, I mentioned to the President
the collapse of nature and forest protection in Panama and he
showed interest in doing something about it. This of course is a
problem we are acutely aware of because of the presence of the
Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, and I enclose a document
which bears on it. (The Institute itself has similar immediate
problems but we are working directly with OMB on them). I am
told indirectly that EPA is approaching the Forest Service and
AID with a view to getting some help. Also, indirectly I learned
there is some interest in this up on the hill. What occurs to me
is there might be a special opportunity here to back up the
immediate help with a debt for nature swap?
Hon. Sununu
February 9, 1990
page two
Saturday and look forward to working with you.
I was glad of the opportunity to talk with you at length on
With all best wishes,
Sincerely Pom, yours,
Thomas E. Lovejoy
Assistant Secretary for
External Affairs
TEL/crt
CC: Secretary Adams
Professor Bromley
encl. (1)
EMERGENCY ASSISTANCE FOR PANAMA'S NATIONAL PARKS
BACKGROUND
For two decades, Panama's military exercised unchecked
political power, helping to bring about an unprecedented socio-
political and economic crisis. Moreover, the embargo imposed on
the Noriega regime by the American government had devastating
consequences.
Widespread unemployment has unleashed a massive process of
emigration of peasants towards the country's tropical forests,
including national parks and reserves. Our technicians estimate
that 90% of the 70,000 hectares of tropical forest that will be
burned this year will be destroyed during the next three months of
the dry season.
Furthermore, once these settlers are in place, it will be
difficult, dangerous, and expensive to remove them. Such wholesale
relocations will be both politically and economically very
difficult undertakings. It will be better and less expensive to
prevent colonization now than to extract the campesino settlers
later.
STATUS OF INRENARE
The Institute of Natural Renewable Resources of Panama
(Instituto Nacional de Recursos Naturales Renovables) or INRENARE,
has lost much of its equipment. It lacks funds to pay $500,000 to
its creditors, and is unable to purchase essential supplies
critical to maintaining its field projects. In the immediate
future, it is quite probable that the Institute will not receive
significant funding from the central government, whose main
priorities will be to provide housing for the refugees caused by
the American invasion, and to generate employment in the
construction and commercial sectors of the urban economy.
INRENARE has a clear conceptual framework for a long-term
master plan for conserving and managing Panama's natural resources.
It also is sustained by a dedicated core of technical cadres.
However, the lack of even the most basic supplies prevents them
from acting. For example, forest guards are only paid $150 per
month, and there are no funds for uniforms, boots, machetes, first
aid kits, vehicles, boats or fuel. Given these limitations, we
would like to convey to you some of our urgent short-term
necessities.
IMMEDIATE PRIORITIES
Although all national parks and reserves are in jeopardy, it
is essential to give the highest priority to the following
environmentally and biologically critical areas:
1. Darien National Park
2. La Amistad National Park
3. The Panama Canal Watershed.
The first two areas are Biosphere Reserves, encompassing
enormous biological and cultural diversity.
Both
are
underprotected and under severe pressure from settlers. The Canal
Watershed includes the Chagres and Soberania National Parks and
smaller forest reserves, whose integrity guarantees the water
supply for the operations of the Panama Canal as well as to the
populations of Panama City and Colon. In the future, these parks
will serve as centers for environmental education and eco-tourism.
Our request for emergency funding focuses on the need to put
forest rangers into the field at these three sites with minimal
logistical support, and to maintain our existing network of
meteorological stations, which are nearly inoperable due to years
of neglect. Tree nurseries require urgent attention to permit the
propagation of tree seedlings during the next few months of the dry
season, so they can be planted out during the early months of the
wet season. Reforestation is urgent in these priority areas to
control erosion and to provide alternatives to the cutting of
natural forests. A third urgent necessity is basic environmental
education. Environmental education in the vicinities of the three
targeted areas is critical so that local villagers will assist,
Rather than actively resist the efforts of our forest rangers.
EMERGENCY OPERATIONAL BUDGET: FEBRUARY-APRIL 1990
1.
Forest Rangers: uniforms, boots, machetes, etc.
$25,000
2.
First aid kits for forest rangers
5,000
3.
Ten Pickup trucks: 4x4, double cabin
145,000
4.
Dugout canoes, outboard motors
30,000
5.
Fuel and maintenance
50,000
6.
Communications: portable radios, antennas, etc.
150,000
7.
Tree nursery program: fungicides, fertilizers,
20,000
irrigation pumps, etc.
8.
Environmental education
20,000
9.
Meteorological and hydrological stations
10,000
TOTAL:
$455,000
PRIORITIES
Although all of the emergency budget represents vital needs,
partial funding would allow us to protect some of the most critical
areas. The following list establishes three priority levels for
funding within the emergency budget:
PRIORITY I:
1. Five Pick-up Trucks (Darien and Canal Watershed)
72,500
2. Fuel and maintenance
50,000
3. Forest Ranger equipment
25,000
4. First Aid kits
5,000
SUBTOTAL:
152,500
PRIORITY II:
1. Communication System
150,000
SUBTOTAL:
150,000
PRIORITY III:
1. Five Pick-up Trucks (La Amistad and other areas)
72,500
2. Canoes and motors
30,000
3. Tree nursery program
20,000
4. Environmental education
20,000
5. Meteorological and hydrological stations
10,000
SUBTOTAL:
152,000
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
February 16, 1990
MEMORANDUM TO JOHN SUNUNU
Aman
FROM:
D. Allan Bromley
SUBJECT:
Possible Presidential Initiative on The Provision of
Technological Support to the Third World and Eastern Europe
in the Area of Increased Electrical Energy Utilization Efficiency
and Other Possible Environmental Protection Areas.
Some time ago I wrote you a memo suggesting that if we in the U.S. take a proactive
stand here we gain in three ways:
a)
We help these countries to sustain their development while minimizing
environmental damage (primarily CO2 emission from coal combustion);
b)
We reap positive political fallout; and
c)
We gain access for U.S. industry to what promises to be a huge market.
If, instead, we wait until external political pressure forces us to this course, we stand
to lose most of items b) and c) above.
The Departments of Energy (Henson Moore) and of Commerce (Tom Murrin) are
interested and have considerable activity underway. EPA has studies underway, as
well.
In my earlier memo I asked you whether you thought that, properly developed, this
might constitute an attractive initiative for the President.
Technology would clearly be involved as well as seed money in many cases--but I
believe that know-how will remain the most important ingredient of any such
initiative.
I would welcome your comments.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
DATE: February 13, 1990
TO:
Dr. Allan Bromley
FROM:
GOVERNOR JOHN H. SUNUNU
Your comments, please.
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THE WHITE HOUSE
February 13, 1990
Dear Miro,
Thanks for the note.
I will be talking to Allan Bromley about your
recommendation. I appreciate you taking the time to
write and will follow up next time we meet.
Regards,
John John H. Sununu
Chief of Staff
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
Dr. Miro M. Todorovich
410 Riverside Drive, Apt. 82A
New York, New York 10025
bcc: Dr. Allan Bromley
90 14:35
0000 SANFAX200 series
TEL 1-212-840-6597
P. 2
MIRO M. TODOROVICH
410 Riverside Drive, Apt. 82A
New York, New York 10025
February 9, 1990
Dr. John H. Sununu
Chief of Staff
The White House
Washington, DC 20500
Dear John:
In quick succession, the New York Times and other media noted (1) the
toning down of the President's speech on global atmospheric concerns, (2)
wetland's regulation relaxation, and (3) the one nuclear engineer in the White
House allegedly responsible for these deeds.
While in more than full agreement with what was decided, I worry about your
exposure to attack (remember Bork, etc.).
For more than a year now, I have held the belief that impeccably-crafted
groups of prominent scientific experts (à la Seabrook panel) whom you would ask
for council on specific issues could remove the lightning rod from above your
head and guide hostile electricity to harmless neutralization.
You should be seen as a skillful executor of the best scientific/economic
understanding held by competent people -- not portrayed as a capricious
individual imposing his idiosyncratic predilections, via the President, onto a
docile society.
Fred and I could assemble fully believable panels in support of any
scientifically defensible decision. I strongely believe that it would be
politically very wise that you lean visibly on such scienfitic validation.
Waiting to hear your reaction.
Cordially,
to
Miro M. Todorovich
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
January 4, 1990
MEMORANDUM FOR JOHN H. SUNUNU
FROM:
MICHAEL J. BOSKIN
D. ALLAN BROMLEY
Michael
SUBJECT:
CONTRIBUTIONS BY CEA AND OSTP TO THE GLOBAL
WARMING ISSUE AND RESULTING BUDGET PROBLEMS
We are writing to express our concern over the mismatch
between our existing resources and the prominent role the
President wants CEA and OSTP to take on the global warming
issue.
To undertake its role, CEA is going to need one senior staff
person working on global warming on a full-time basis. Our
senior staff resources are already stretched very thin, and
taking away one of our few senior staffers to work on this
issue will dramatically reduce our ability to work on other
important economic policy matters: the forecast, trade,
monetary policy, etc. The CEA has already taken on
significant extra responsibilities. For example, even our
very limited financial contributions to the Presidential
mission to Poland and our membership on the Structural
Impediments Initiative with Japan have a significant impact
on our minuscule budget. The CEA travel budget is
especially tight and is already more than fully accounted
for (we are already relying on 501 (c) (3) and on other
government agencies to help us pay a significant share of
our travel expenses).
OSTP is also very thin in personnel with a single staff
member having the responsibility for science and technology
matters relating to energy and the environment. Recently
she has been spending essentially all her time in work
relating to the DPC Working Group on Global Climate Change.
To continue that work and take on the additional
organizational responsibilities for the April science and
economics research conference that we are co-chairing, OSTP
will require additional staff assistance and like CEA,
additional travel support. It too is currently relying on
501 (c) (3) and other agencies for administrative travel
costs.
To enable OSTP to proceed it has obtained the services of a
liaison staff member from the U.S. Geological Service at no
cost for a period of 3 months--one now past. On his
departure it will be essential for OSTP to replace him for
the coming year with an appropriate detailee for whom OSTP
will pay 50% of the total compensation package.
It would seem easiest and most sensible to resolve these
funding and personnel problems by tapping a small amount of
EPA's or NASA's budget to help OSTP and CEA. In addition to
some travel expenses and specific consulting expenses
associated with organizing the April conference--totalling
an estimated $20,000 for both CEA and OSTP, it would be
especially helpful to CEA if funding could be provided for
one senior personnel slot for CEA as soon as possible
(estimated cost roughly $75,000) and to OSTP if similar
funding could be provided to cover 50% of a similar salary.
We would thus request your help in making available about
$132,500 to enable us to proceed effectively to implement
the President's immediate global change program.
We shall much appreciate your help.
fele
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
December 6, 1990
MEMORANDUM FOR GOVERNOR SUNUNU
FROM:
D. ALLAN BROMLEY
SUBJECT:
EPA Report on Electromagnetic Field Carcinogenicity
This is to inform you of the status of the extremely low frequency radiation (ELF) issue.
Attached is a copy of a newsletter with a story based on leaks by EPA staff. EPA seems
to be looking for someone else to take the heat for their poorly drafted, controversial
report. We advised EPA that we were very concerned that their actions in leaking this
information undermined their credibility and showed a lack of good faith in their
dealings, as they had asked to brief us on November 26. EPA management has been
more cooperative than this article would suggest and they informed us that they would
take responsibility for not releasing the report. Nevertheless, the attached article
actually looks good for us.
After consultations with a number of Federal agencies, EPA has indicated that they are
willing to change the misleading conclusions in their executive summary. There have
been many trade press reporter inquiries, however we have no indication of any major
newspaper interest at this time. We will keep you advised on this issue as it develops.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
December 19, 1990
MEMORANDUM FOR JOHN H. SUNUNU
FROM:
D. ALLAN BROMLEY
EDE HOLIDAY
SUBJECT:
NEGOTIATOR FOR FRAMEWORK GLOBAL CLIMATE
CHANGE CONVENTION
At a meeting in your office in August to review the Fall agenda in the global climate
change area, we discussed the issue of the appropriate level of negotiator for the
framework convention deliberations that were then expected to begin early in 1991.
Several options were presented, but it was decided to defer any final decision on the
issue until closer to the actual negotiations.
With the negotiations set to begin on February 4 in nearby Chantilly, Virginia, a
decision is now timely. State has recommended and is prepared to proceed with the
designation of Curtis "Buff" Bohlen, Assistant Secretary of State for Oceans and
International Environmental and Scientific Affairs (OES), as chairman of the U.S.
delegation. Bob Reinstein, the Deputy Assistant Secretary for OES, would be
designated vice-chairman of the delegation and would shoulder the principal
negotiating responsibilities. You will recall that Bohlen and Reinstein are the
respective successors to Fred Bernthal and Bill Nitze. Bohlen has recently led
delegations to the first preparatory meeting in Nairobi for the 1992 Brazil U.N.
Conference on Environment and Development and to meetings in Chile on protection
of Antarctica's environment. Reinstein did most of the negotiating that led up to the
ministerial portion of the Second World Climate Conference (SWCC), when Dr. John
Knauss from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration stepped in, and
generally has been given significant credit for the reasonable ministerial declaration
that ultimately emerged. The recommendation of State for the designation of Bohlen
and Reinstein has received Bob Zoellick's attention and approval.
Alternatives to the designation of Bohlen and Reinstein do exist:
A senior official from elsewhere within the federal government could be
designated. This individual would conduct the negotiations with technical
support from State and the other appropriate federal agencies. One possible
candidate for this role would be Dr. Knauss, who has experience in global
climate change issues from his role at the SWCC and at the Bergen Conference
earlier this year and who performed quite capably in both of those fora.
Bohlen and another senior government official could be designated as the
co-chairs of the delegation and share the negotiating responsibility. This would
ensure that a State Department official is tasked with overseeing the technical
aspects of preparations and the work that must be performed between
negotiating sessions. The naming of a co-chair might give emphasis to other
aspects of the issue, such as science or economics.
An individual from outside the government could be designated and given
special ambassador or similar rank. This individual would be supported by
State and the other agencies or a separate office and staff could be established
(or some combination of the two pursued). No names immediately come to
mind, and it may be difficult to recruit someone to assume this role so close
to the framework convention meeting and to obtain the needed eighteen-month
committment (the time it is anticipated it would take before a framework
convention is signed).
State notes that the designation of Bohlen and Reinstein is consistent with the
traditional approach of the department to international environmental negotiations
since they hold positions comparable to the designated representatives from other
countries. State argues that the designation of a more senior government official or
an individual from outside the government would only heighten expectations and add
extra pressure on the U.S., raise the overall visibility of the negotiations and--
especially if someone from the government were brought in--more closely tie the White
House to the process.
State has not advised of any critical date by which the designation must be made and
an announcement through cables made. We have requested that no action be taken
pending review of the question by the White House.
Our recommendation would be to accept the State Department offer to designate
Bohlen and Reinstein, as outlined above.
We also request that you focus on the possibility of designating a special ambassador
earliest convenience.
for the 1992 U. N. Conferenceon Environment and Development in Brazil, at your
We would appreciate your thoughts on how we should proceed.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
December 20, 1990
MEMORANDUM FOR GOVERNOR SUNUNU
FROM:
D. ALLAN BROMLEY AM
SUBJECT:
THE 1992 BRAZILIAN CONVENTION ON
THE ENVIRONMENT
In 1992 world attention will focus on Brazil as the host of a major conference on the
global environment. This conference is one of a continuing series that included the
1972 Stockholm Conference and will address a very broad spectrum of environmental
issues.
For the 1972 conference, the U.S. government appointed Senator Howard Baker as
Special Ambassador and gave him a staff and the charge of developing U.S. positions
for the Conference. He was appointed some eighteen months prior to the conference
and reportedly felt that more lead time would have enabled him to do a much better
job for the U.S.
Due to the growing interest in the issues, the scope and visibility of the 1992
Brazilian Conference will be very much higher than was the case in 1972.
Because of the importance of the 1992 Conference, the Carnegie Commission sent the
enclosed letter urging that we take action as soon as possible to ensure appropriate
U.S. participation in the Brazilian Conference. Timely action would support President
Bush's commitment to global stewardship and environmental issues generally.
You, I am sure, will have people in mind as attractive candidates for this
responsibility and I would only add the following as names that you might wish to
include in your considerations:
a) Robert White, President, National Academy of Engineering
Superbly qualified if he could be convinced to take this on.
b) Joshua Lederberg, President-emeritus, Rockefeller University
Nobel laureate and co-chairman of the Carnegie Commission. Highly visible
and no zealot.
c) James G. Martin, Governor of North Carolina. Holds a chemistry Ph.D.
and is someone for whom I have developed a very high regard.
Unfortunately, as a setting governor he probably would not have the time
needed or this job.
d) Howard Baker. Everyone agreed that he did a fine job in 1972. He is still
vigorous and would certainly be able to hit the ground running. place
I believe that it is important that we act in a timely fashion to get our preparations
underway. I was impressed, for example, by the extent to which the South American
nations visited by the President two weeks ago already have in place extensive
preparatory activities, and I am told the same is true of the major European
countries and Japan.
Enclosure
CARNEGIE COMMISSION ON SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, AND GOVERNMENT
10 Waverly Place, New York, N.Y. 10003 (212) 998-2150 FAX (212) 995-3181
6 July 1990
The Honorable D. Allan Bromley
WILLIAM T. GOLDEN
Co-Chair
Assistant to the President for Science and Technology
JOSHUA LEDERBERG
Co-Chair
The White House
DAVID Z. ROBINSON
Executive Director
Washington, D.C. 20506
RICHARD C. ATKINSON
NORMAN R. AUGUSTINE
JOHN BRADEMAS
Dear Allan,
LEWIS M. BRANSCOMB
HON. JIMMY CARTER
WILLIAM T. COLEMAN,
As you are aware, the Carnegie Commission on Science, Technology, and
SIDNEY D. DRELL
Government was established in 1988 to seek ways in which the branches of
DANIEL 1. EVANS
ANDREW GOODPASTER
the U.S. government can encourage and better use the contributions of the
SHIRLEY HUFSTEDLER
nation's scientists and engineers.
B.R. INMAN
HELENE L. KAPLAN
DONALD KENNEDY
In early June the Commission convened a workshop to examine
CHARLES McC. MATHIAS, Jr.
WILLIAM J. PERRY
"International Environmental Organizations: The Science and Technology
ROBERT M. SOLOW
Dimensions." This meeting was designed to study, in depth, the
H. GUYFORD STEVER
SHEILA E. WIDNALL
institutional issues raised at the recent "White House Conference on
JEROME 8. WIESNER
Science and Economics Related to Global Change."
ADVISORY COUNCIL
Workshop participants took particular note of the June 1992 United
GRAHAM T. ALLISON,
Nations ministerial Conference on Environment and Development to be held
WILLIAM O BAKER
HARVEY BROOKS
in Brazil. As a result, the co-chairs of the workshop have prepared a
HAROLD BROWN
letter, attached here, which recommends three near-term actions by the
JAMES M. CANNON
U.S. government. These are:
ASHTON B. CARTER
HON. RICHARD F. CELESTE
LAWTON CHILES
1) appointment of a Special Ambassador for the 1992 Brazil Conference to
THEODORE COOPER
EUGENE COTA-ROBLES
oversee the complex U.S. efforts required to be successful at the
WILLIAM DRAYTON
meeting;
THOMAS EHRLICH
STUART EIZENSTAT
2) appointment of a Presidential Commission (or comparable body) for the
HON GERALD R. FORD
RALPHE COMORY
Conference to synthesize data and concepts for the U.S. position; and
REV THEODORE M HESBURGH
3) appointment of a Public Advisory Committee to the Special Ambassador
WALTER MASSEY
RODNEY W NICHOLS
to enhance dialogue among industry, universities, and citizens with the
DAVID PACKARD
government on issues relating to the Conference.
HON LEWIS F POWELL Ir.
CHARLES POWERS
JAMES B RESTON
The workshop participants believe that such actions could greatly
ALICE M RIVLIN
OSCAR M RUEBHAUSEN
facilitate the process of analysis and consultation needed to organize a
ONAS SALK
unified U.S. position for this important meeting and to relay
MAXINEF SINGER
HON DICK THORNBURGH
recommendations to the President for consideration. We understand that
ADM AMES WATKINS RET :
the Office of Science and Technology Policy is working with the Council
HERBERT YORK
CHARLES ZRAKET
on Environmental Quality, the Department of State, and other agencies in
20 1989
the preliminary preparation for Brazil. Thus, we bring the suggested
actions to your attention. If the Workshop participants are correct, it
would be desirable to take actions, in concert with the Congress, before
the end of 1990, SO that the mechanisms can be most effective.
Our Carnegie group would be pleased to meet with you and other officials
to share detailed views relating to this matter.
Respectfully yours,
William T. Golden n/A Joshua Lederberg
CARNEGIE COMMISSION ON SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, AND GOVERNMENT
6 July 1990
Mr. William T. Golden
Dr. Joshua Lederberg
Co-Chairmen, Carnegie Commission
on Science, Technology, and Government
10 Waverly Place
New York NY 10003
Dear Bill and Josh,
As co-chairmen of the meeting, we are pleased to report a successful
Workshop of the Carnegie Commission on the subject of "International
Environmental Organization: The Science & Technology Dimensions" at The
Rockefeller University, June 4-6, 1990. The detailed findings of the
Workshop will be conveyed to you later this summer.
During the course of our discussions, an important issue emerged
that calls for early consideration. Our attention was drawn to the UN
Conference on Environment and Development to be held in Brazil in June,
1992. Major recent studies have provided convincing evidence that the
linkage between environment and development is now so compelling that the
two very complex and important topics often need to be considered together.
Decisions of lasting significance with regard to international institutions
and decision-making processes bearing on both the quality of the global
environment and the strategies for economic growth could be made in
connection with the Conference.
The UN has appointed an outstanding Secretary General, Maurice
Strong of Canada, for the Conference and established a Preparatory Committee
to develop the agenda and supporting papers. A demanding schedule of
international and regional meetings has been set by the Preparatory
Committee for the next two years. Several scientific organizations in the
United States (for example, the American Association for the Advancement of
Science, American Association of Engineering Societies, Social Science
Research Council, Consortium of Social Science Associations, the Council of
Scientific Society Presidents, and Sigma Xi) have banded together to elicit
and integrate the views of the scientific community in this country on these
issues. There has been a call from the recent ministerial-level conference
in Bergen, Norway, supported by influential scientists from many nations,
for a "Science Summit" on environment and development that would be held
only a few months before the 1992 Brazil Conference.
Our Workshop members agreed that it is a matter of prime importance
that the United States be well prepared for the Brazil Conference. Several
of the attendees were involved in similar preparatory work for other UN
conferences, such as that on the Environment held in Stockholm in June,
1972, and on Science and Technology for Development held in Vienna during
The Rockefeller University, Box 234, 1230 York Avenue, New York, NY 10021 (212) 570-7917
FAX (212) 570-7974 BITNET ausubel@rockvax INTERNET [email protected]
CARNEGIE COMMISSION ON SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, AND COV ERNMENT
August 1979. The strong and persuasive national position developed by the
United States was a factor in the success at Stockholm. An experienced
delegation coped well with the contentious problems faced in Vienna. Our
Workshop participants were unanimous in the conviction that lessons from the
past show that more activity in regard to the Brazil Conference is
desirable, both within the government and in its interactions with the
outside community. Several actions should be considered, as a matter of
urgency, to assure a dynamic and creative participation by our country. We
recommend the following:
1) The President should appoint a Special Ambassador to work with the
Secretary of State and other high level officials to oversee policy planning
and development of a unified U.S. government position for the Conference on
Environment and Development. This Special Ambassador should be provided
with adequate funds and staff to support careful preparation of papers
outlining options for the U.S. position. To be effective, the initial
papers should be in hand no later than 1 September 1991. Accordingly, the
Ambassador should be appointed by the fall of 1990, this year.
2) The President and the Congress should establish a Presidential Commission
(or comparable body) on the UN 1992 Conference on Environment and
Development to provide and help synthesize a wide range of data and views
from governmental and nongovernmental sources in order to assist the State
Department and other federal agencies involved in the planning process. To
assure an appropriate diversity of perspectives, the President and Congress
should appoint individuals from the Congress, the Executive Branch,
industry, labor, environmental organizations, the scientific and engineering
community, and other professionally expert and concerned groups to serve on
the Commission. Selected members of the Commission would later serve as
members of the U.S. delegation to the Conference and would thus be
well-prepared to represent the U.S. position. For the 1972 Stockholm
Conference, Senator Howard H. Baker, Jr. of Tennessee served as chairman of
the comparable advisory group. Having a distinguished and knowledgeable
sitting member of the Congress lead the group worked exceptionally well.
3) The Secretary of State in consultation with appropriate federal
officials¹ should appoint a larger Public Advisory Committee to work with
the Ambassador in preparing for the Conference. The Committee would serve
to assure broad public dialogue in the U.S., through regional conferences
and other means, on the issues the Conference will address.
1
These include the Assistant to the President for Science and
Technology, the Chairs of the Councils of Economic Advisors and
Environmental Quality, the Secretary of Energy, the Secretary of the
Treasury, the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, the
Administrator of the Agency for International Development, the Under
Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere, and the Director of the
National Science Foundation.
CARNEGIE COMMISSION ON SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, AND GOVERNMENT
We urge you to bring these considered recommendations to the
attention of the President, key White House officials, the Secretary of
State, and such other individuals in the executive and legislative branches
whom you feel must be informed now. We note that the steps recommended are
ones that traditionally have been taken by the U.S. government in preparing
itself for world conferences of major potential significance, such as the
1972 Stockholm Conference and the 1979 Vienna Conference.
As agreed at the Workshop, this letter has been prepared in
consultation with Harvey Brooks, Rodney W. Nichols, Walter A. Rosenblith,
and H. Guyford Stever, members of the Commission and its international
steering group who participated in the Workshop, and has their full
agreement. A list of all the Workshop participants is attached.
We join in commending you for your initiative in bringing the
participants of our Workshop together and look forward to discussing with
you our conclusions on a range of issues during the months ahead.
Sincerely yours,
Jene Aull Malone
Jesse H. Ausubel
Thomas F. Malone
CC. Workshop participants
"International Environmental Organization: The S&T Dimensions"
Workshop, The Rockefeller University, New York, NY
June 4-6, 1990
Participants:
John F. Ahearne, Sigma Xi
Jesse H. Ausubel, Carnegie Commission on Science, Technology, and Government
D. James Baker, Joint Oceanographic Institutions
Richard E. Benedick, World Wildlife Fund/ The Conservation Foundation
Harvey Brooks, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University
William C. Clark, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University
Richard E. Hallgren, American Meteorological Society
Philip W. Hemily, National Research Council
John A. Knauss, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
J. W. M. La Riviere, Institute for Hydraulic & Environmental Engineering, Netherlands
Jeffrey Laurenti, UN Association of America
James R. Mahoney, National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program
Thomas F. Malone, St. Joseph's College
Rodney W. Nichols, The Rockefeller University
William A. Nitze, Environmental Law Institute
John S. Perry, National Research Council
Peter H. Raven, Missouri Botanical Garden
Walter A. Rosenblith, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
H. Guyford Stever, Carnegie Commission on Science, Technology & Government
Peter S. Thacher, World Resources Institute
Mary Martha Treichel, National Research Council
Gilbert F. White, University of Colorado
Robert M. White, National Academy of Engineering
Anne V.T. Whyte, International Development Research Centre, Canada
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
July 12, 1990
MEMORANDUM FOR JOHN H. SUNUNU
FROM:
D. ALLAN BROMLEY
An
SUBJECT:
FORTHCOMING IPCC PLENARY SESSION IN SWEDEN
As you know, the final plenary session in the first round of activities of the IPCC is
scheduled to take place in Sweden in early August. This memorandum is intended as
a heads up concerning aspects of U.S. participation in that meeting.
Fred Bernthal, as Deputy Director of NSF, recognizes that the meeting coincides with
Erich Bloch's last week on the job as Director of NSF and feels that he should be in
place at NSF. In my discussions with him, however, he has agreed that if it is felt
that his services are required in Sweden, he would be reluctantly willing to go and
perform his swan song as Chairman of Working Group #3. I believe that it is
important that he be present because otherwise we will have very little continuity with
the discussions that have led up to this final meeting and very little effective input
toward affecting the report that emerges from it. In his absence, also, we in the U.S.
will have little chance of holding the chairmanship of this Working Group.
John Knauss, the Director of NOAA, called me to volunteer to head up the U.S.
Delegation to the Swedish meeting but in order to make plans for the latter part of
the summer, he requests that he be told as soon as possible whether he should plan
on attending. Here again I think it is important for John to attend because he
brings an extensive technical background to the discussions and in that role can
complement Bernthal.
Finally, Bill Reilly has urged that Buff Bohlen, who has now been confirmed as
Assistant Secretary of State for Oceans and International Environmental and
Scientific Affairs, be named as Bernthal's replacement as Chairman of Working
Group #3, if, as seems probable, that Working Group and the entire IPCC structure
continues to function after the forthcoming plenary. Unfortunately, although Bohlen
has extensive experience in other aspects of international environmental matters, he
has had very little contact thus far with the global climate change question and in
particular, has had no contact whatsoever with the detailed IPCC discussions.
My recommendation to you would be that Bernthal, Knauss, and Bohlen should all
attend this IPCC plenary; Bernthal, to wind up his activities and make sure that U.S.
views are properly represented in the closing discussions leading to the final IPCC
report; John Knauss, because of his technical competence and because I believe that
he would be the logical replacement for Bernthal as Chairman of Working Group #3
if it continues and if, indeed, the U.S. is allowed to retain its chairmanship--
something that is far from certain at this point. Finally, Buff Bohlen, to give him an
opportunity to become acquainted with some of the issues, meet some of the people
and become sensitized to some of the very important political undercurrents that are
conditioning activities in the global change area.
I would have some concern about naming Bohlen to the working group chairmanship
if we are given the opportunity to name the chairman at least until he has had
considerably more exposure to this whole international area, but I am quite prepared
to admit that, after some decent interval and with such exposure, he might well be an
appropriate person to replace John Knauss, if such replacement were deemed
desirable. Knauss is not an accomplished chairman although a great scientist and I
am told that Bohlen has demonstated very real abiality in running meetings--both
national and internationally--very effectively.
Finally, I would welcome an opportunity, at your convenience, to discuss with you
what role you see in the future for the DPC Working Group on Global Climate
Change.
for
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
October 12, 1990
MEMORANDUM FOR GOVERNOR SUNUNU
FROM:
D. ALLAN BROMLEY
And
SUBJECT:
Global Change Research Act
ISSUE
The House and Senate science committees are working on a compromise bill entitled
"The Global Change Research Act of 1990". Several provisions are unacceptable to
the Administration. If Congress does intend to move the legislation, it may be
necessary to attempt to change these provisions.
BACKGROUND
The legislation would codify activities of an existing environmental scientific and
research subgroup of the Federal Coordinating Council on Science, Engineering and
Technology (FCCSET) and codify the FCCSET Council itself with language similar to
the current executive order under which FCCSET operates.
The FCCSET environmental subgroup coordinates the U.S. global change research
program, assists OMB in budget cross-cuts, and publishes materials describing the
research program. No new funding is requested in the legislation. This is precedent
setting legislation as it may serve as the model for codification of other FCCSET
subgroups. The legislation may move due to Congressional interest in being
associated with an environmental or global change bill.
The House bill, H.R. 2984, was reported out of the Science Committee in early August
and is being negotiated with Merchant, Marine and Fisheries and Foreign Affairs
Committees, to which it was jointly referred. Other problems in the legislation
include:
0
Several sections that undercut the President's authority (eg. requiring the
Administration to make available to Congress budget materials prior to the
annual transmission of the budget to Congress).
o
Restricting the flexibility to choose the chairperson of the subgroup and
requiring approval by the subgroup of activities currently not within their
authority.
0
A "National Remote Sensing Advisory Committee" to make recommendations on
the Landsat program, which is objectionable to the Space Council and NSC.
The Senate version (S. 169) passed on a roll call vote, 100 to 0. As passed, it is less
intrusive of executive authority and does not contain the National Remote Sensing
Advisory Committee. However, the House and Senate majority staff are caucusing
over the legislation in an attempt to strike a pre-conference deal. House minority
staff report that the legislation could come up on the suspension calendar early next
week.
Due to serious concerns expressed about this legislation, the limited involvement of
the Administration in the Senate version, the advanced stage of the process on the
Hill, and the prospect of an imminent House vote, the threshold question is whether
this legislation can be vetoed. The options are: 1) outright veto, 2) pocket veto, 3)
oppose the bill, but work to change the legislation and sign the bill, with a signing
statement to clarify the Administration's position. After discussions with House
minority staff, OMB, and affected agency staff, it is the general consensus that the
legislation will probably pass the House. Unless there is a strong reason to veto, it
is our recommendation to work with the Hill to try and correct the most onerous
sections of this legislation. We understand that the House Science Committee
majority staff are willing to make changes, but they are trying to get the legislation
to the floor very soon.
Attached at Tab A is a recent draft of the legislation, as it was being negotiated
between the House and Senate earlier this week. Also attached, at Tab B, is a copy
of S. 169, as passed by the Senate. Finally, Tab C has a May 18, 1990 letter to the
House Science Committee stating Administration objections to H.R. 2984. This will
form the basis of our discussions with the Hill.
RECOMMENDATION
We are working with OMB, Counsel's office, NSC, Space Council staff, and other
White House and Federal agency officials on the FCCSET environment subgroup.
Unless you have objections, we will continue to work with these offices and approach
the Hill to try and negotiate a better bill.
Approve
Disapprove
Further Discussion
Attachments
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
November 5, 1990
MEMORANDUM FOR GOVERNOR SUNUNU
FROM:
D. ALLAN BROMLEY
SUBJECT:
Second World Climate Conference
A preparatory committee completed the latest draft ministerial declaration today.
Throughout the discussions the U.S. took a positive tone, while being tough on the
issues. Many nations, including the European countries, indicated that they did not
wanted to isolate the U.S.. This is reflected in the substantial revisions and additional
language in the final draft that address U.S. concerns.
Attached is a copy of the current draft declaration (Tab A) and a statement from the
scientific and technical session that took place from October 29 to November 2 (Tab B).
The next session is the November 6 to 7 "ministerial" meeting.
The draft ministerial declaration produced in Geneva in September was used as the
basis for changes. The U.S. prepared, alternative draft was circulated along with
different alternative drafts from the Saudis, Latin Americans, and Norwegians. Although
the U.S. draft was not adopted as the vehicle for changes, it was cited as a good
example of language that is more ministerial in tone and content. As a result, much
of the technical language in the September draft was dropped and agreements were
reached on language which largely satisfies concerns of the U.S. delegation. Some
bracketed language troublesome to the U.S. remains, but this is expected to be resolved
in the next two days.
The U.S. delegation was successful in some specific areas.
PARAGRAPH 7. The precautionary principle, which requires action irrespective of the
level of scientific uncertainty, presented some of the most contentious language. It was
essential that the U.S. change the language or it would have been impossible to sign the
declaration. The section addressing the precautionary principle has been revised to
provide for "cost-effective measures" in the face of scientific uncertainty.
Some specific problems remain in the draft ministerial declaration.
PARAGRAPH 12. The draft contains bracketed language listing the European countries
and their concerted "regional" plan to take action on targets and timetables. This
isolates the U.S. The Europeans worked hard for this language. In exchange, the U.S.
included language in the same paragraph to "acknowledge the initiatives of the United
States which will have significant effects on limiting emissions of greenhouse gases." The
U.S. language will be used as a bargaining chip to remove the European community
language. Other language in the paragraph reflects points won by the U.S. in
negotiations.
PARAGRAPH 15. Language concerning financial resources for developing countries is
as follows: "we recommend that adequate and additional financial resources should be
mobilized. leaving the process, criteria and characteristics of the resources broad
enough that it should not be a problem. However, this is one area which should be
monitored through the end of the conference.
PARAGRAPH 21. Bracketed language focuses on reductions in energy-related CO2
emissions, and could serve to steer away from our efforts to develop the comprehensive
approach; however, paragraph 14 appears to counterbalance this CO2 focus,
recommending that "all greenhouse gases, sources and sinks be considered in the most
comprehensive manner possible."
PARAGRAPH 28. Bracketed language includes the consideration of the "feasibility of
forestry options" as part of the scope of global framework negotiations. The President
made a commitment in the Houston G-7 Summit to have a Forestry Convention by 1992.
There is a consensus within the Administration that the forestry issue should be put on
a different track or it will get bogged down in the climate negotiations, which could
extend beyond 1992.
Other issues need to be monitored.
Other paragraphs containing specific U.S. interests that need to be monitored, but which
are acceptable at this point, include:
1. Uncertainty issue: Paragraphs 2, 5, 6, and 8.
2. Economics: Paragraph 20.
3. Targets and timetables: Paragraphs 10, 11, 12, and 13.
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5 November 1990
DRAFT
DRAFT MINISTERIAL DECLARATION
PREAMBLE
1.
We, the Ministers from countries representing the
world community met in Geneva, Switzerland, from 6 to
7 November 1990 at the Second World Climate
Conference.
2.
We note that while climate has varied in the past and
there is still a large degree of scientific
uncertainty, the rate of climate change predicted by
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
to occur over the next century is unprecedented.
This is due mainly to the continuing accumulation of
greenhouse gases, resulting from a host of human
activities since the industrial revolution, hitherto
particularly in developed countries. The potential
impact of such climate change could pose an
environmental threat of an up to now unknown
magnitude; and could jeopardize the social and
economic development of some areas. It could even
threaten survival in some small island States and in
low-lying coastal, arid and semi-arid areas.
3.
We appreciate the work of the World Climate Programme
(WCP) during the past decade which has improved
understanding of the causes, processes and effects of
climate and climate change. We also congratulate the
IPCC, established by the United Nations Environment
Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological
Organization (WMO) on its First Assessment Report on
Climate Change. It has identified causes and
possible effects and strategies to limit and adapt to
climate change, and in the light of the United
Nations General Assembly resolutions, has identified
possible elements for inclusion in a framework
convention on climate change.
4.
Recognizing climate change as a common concern of
mankind, we commit ourselves and intend to take
without prejudice to sovereignty of States
active and constructive steps in a global response,
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I. GLOBAL STRATEGY
5.
Recognizing that climate change is a global problem
of unique character and taking into account the
remaining uncertainties in the field of science,
economics and response options, we consider that a
global response, while ensuring sustainable
development (1) of all countries, must be decided and
implemented without further delay based on the best
available knowledge such as that resulting from the
IPCC assessment. Recognizing further that the
principle of equity and the common but differentiated
responsibility of countries should be the basis of
any global response to climate change, developed
countries must take the lead. They must all commit
themselves to actions to reduce their major
contributions to the global net emissions and enter
into and strengthen co-operation with developing
countries to enable them to adequately address
climate change without hindering their national
development goals and objectives. Developing
countries must, within the limits feasible, taking
into account the problems regarding the burden of
external debt and their economic circumstances,
commit themselves to appropriate action in this
regard. To this end, there is a need to meet the
requirements of developing countries, that adequate
and additional financial resources be mobilised and
the best available environmentally-sound technologies
be transferred expeditiously on a fair and most
favourable basis.
II. POLICY CONSIDERATIONS FOR ACTION
6.
We reaffirm that, in order to reduce uncertainties,
to increase our ability to predict climate and
climate change on a global and regional basis,
including early identification of as yet unknown
climate-related issues, and to design sound response
strategies, there is a need to strengthen national,
regional and international research activities in
climate, climate change and sea level rise. We
recognize that commitments by governments are
essential to sustain and strengthen the necessary
research and monitoring programmes and the exchange
of relevant data and information, with due respect to
national sovereignity. We stress that special
efforts must be directed to the areas of uncertainty
as identified by the IPCC.
(1)
Statement of sustainable development as agreed at the
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We maintain that there is a need to intensify
research on the social and economic implications of
climate change and response strategies. We commit
ourselves to promoting the full participation of
developing countries in these efforts. We recognize
the importance of supporting the needs of the World
Climate Programme, including contributions to the WMO
Special Fund for Climate and Atmospheric
Environmental Studies. The magnitude of the problem
being addressed is such that no nation can tackle it
alone and we stress the need to strengthen
international cooperation. In particular, we invite
the 11th Congress of the World Meteorological
Organization, in the formulation of plans for the
future development of the World Climate Programme, to
ensure that the necessary arrangements are
established in consultation with UNEP, UNESCO (and
its IOC), FAO, ICSU and other relevant international
organisations for effective coordination of climate
and climate change related research and monitoring
programmes. We urge that special attention be given
to the economic and social dimensions of climate and
climate change research.
7.
In order to achieve sustainable development in all
countries and to meet the needs of present and future
generations, precautionary measures to meet the
climate challenge must anticipate, prevent, attack,
or minimize the causes of, and mitigate the adverse
consequences of, environmental degradation that might
result from climate change. Where there are threats
of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full
scientific certainty should not be used as a reason
for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent
such environmental degradation. The measures adopted
should take into account different socio-economic
contexts.
8.
The potentially serious consequences of climate
change, including the risk for survival in low-lying
and other small island States and in some low-lying
coastal, and arid and semi-arid areas of the world,
give sufficient reasons to begin by adopting response
strategies even in the face of significant
uncertainties.
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Such response strategies include phasing out the
production and use of CFC's, efficiency improvements
and conservation in energy supply and use,
appropriate measures in the transport sector,
sustainable forest management, afforestation schemes,
developing contingency plans for dealing with climate
related emergencies, proper land use planning,
adequate coastal zone management, review of intensive
agricultural practices and the use of [safe and]
cleaner energy sources with lower or no emissions of
[carbon dioxide and other] greenhouse gases, paying
special attention to new and renewable sources.
Further actions should be pursued in a phased and
flexible manner on the basis of medium and long-term
goals and strategies and at the national, regional or
global level, taking advantage of scientific advances
and technological developments to meet both
environmental and economic objectives.
9.
We note that per capita consumption patterns in
certain parts of the world along with a projected
increase in world population are contributing factors
in the projected increase in greenhouse gases.
10.
We agree that the ultimate global objective should be
to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at a level
that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
interference with climate.
11.
We stress, as a first step, the need to stabilize,
while ensuring sustainable development of the world
economy, emissions of greenhouse gases not controlled
by the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete
the Ozone Layer. Contributions should be equitably
differentiated according to countries'
responsibilities and their level of development. In
this context, we acknowledge efforts already
undertaken by a number of countries to meet this
goal.
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12.
Taking into account that the developed world is
responsible for about 3/4 of all emissions of
greenhouse gases, we welcome the decisions and
commitments (undertaken by many developed countries
and a regional economic integration organization]
[undertaken by the European Community with its Member
States, Australia, Austria, Canada, Finland, Japan,
New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and other
developed countries] to take actions aimed at
stabilizing their emissions of CO2, or CO2 and other
greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal
Protocol, by the year 2000 in general at 1990 level,
yet recognizing the differences in approach and in
starting point in the formulation of the above
targets. [We also acknowledge the initiatives of the
1 United States which will have significant effects on
limiting emissions of greenhouse gases.] We urge
other developed countries to establish targets and/or
feasible national programmes or strategies which will
have significant effects on limiting emissions of
[CO₂ and other] greenhouse gases not controlled by
the Montreal Protocol.
We acknowledge, however, that those developed
countries with as yet relatively low energy
consumption (measured on a per capita or other
appropriate basis) which can be reasonably expected
to grow, and some countries with economies in
transition, may establish targets, programmes and/or
strategies that accommodate socio-economic growth,
while improving the energy efficiency of their
economic activities.
13.
We urge developed countries, before the 1992 UN
Conference on Environment and Development, to analyze
the feasibility of and options for, and, as
appropriate in light of these analyses, to develop
programmes, strategies and/or targets for a staged
approach for achieving reductions of [CO₂ and other]
greenhouse gas emissions not controlled by the
Montreal Protocol, over the next two decades and
beyond.
14.
We recommend that in the alaboration of response
strategies, over time, all greenhouse gases, sources
and sinks be considered in the most comprehensive
manner possible and also that limitation and
adaptation measures be addressed.
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15.
We recognize that developing countries have as their
main priority alleviating poverty and achieving
social and economic development and that their net
emissions must grow from their, as yet, relatively
low energy consumption to accommodate their
development needs. Narrowing the gap between the
developed and the developing world would provide a
basis for a full partnership of all nations and would
assist the developing countries in dealing with the
climate change issue. To enable developing countries
to meet 'incremental costs required to take the
necessary measures to address climate change and sea-
level rise, consistent with their development needs,
|
we recommend that adequate and additional financial
resources should be mobilized and best available
environmentally sound technologies transferred
expeditiously on a fair and most favourable basis.
Developing countries also should, within the limits
feasible, take action in this regard.
16.
The specific difficulties of those countries,
particularly developing countries, whose economies
are highly dependent on fossil fuel production and
exportation, as a consequence of action taken on
limiting greenhouse gas emissions, should be taken
into account.
17.
We recommend that consideration should be given to
the need for funding facilities, including the
proposed World Bank/UNEP/UNDP Global Environmental
Facility, a clearing house mechanism and a new
possible international fund composed of adequate
additional and timely financial resources and
institutional arrangements for developing countries;
taking into account existing multilateral and
bilateral mechanisms and approaches. Such funding
should be related to the implementation of the
framework convention on climate change and any other
related instruments that might be agreed upon. In
the meantime, developed countries are urged to co-
operate with developing countries to support
immediate action in addressing climate change
including sea-level rise without imposing any new
conditionality on developing countries.
18.
We recommend further that resources be assessed.
Such assessments, to be conducted as soon as
possible, should include country studies and
mechanisms to meet the financing needs identified,
taking note of the approaches developed under the
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19.
Financial resources channelled to developing
countries should, inter alia, be directed to:
(1) Promoting efficient use of energy, development
of lower and non-greenhouse gas emitting energy
technologies and paying special attention to
safe and clean new and renewable sources of
energy;
(11) Arranging expeditious transfer of the best
available environmentally sound technology on a
fair and most favourable basis to developing
countries and promoting rapid development of
such technology in these countries;
(iii) Co-operating with developing countries to enable
their full participation in international
meetings on climate change;
(iv) Enhancing atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial
observational networks, particularly in
developing countries, to facilitate conducting
research, monitoring and assessment of climate
change and the impact on those countries;
(v) Rational forest management practices and
agricultural techniques which reduce greenhouse
gas emissions;
(vi) Enhancing the capacity of developing countries
to develop programs to address climate change,
including research and development activities
and public awareness and education.
Funding should also be directed to the creation of
regional centres to organize information networks on
climate change in developing countries.
20.
Appropriate economic instruments may offer the
potential for achieving environmental improvements in
a cost-effective manner. The adoption of any form of
economic or regulatory measures would require careful
and substantive analyses. We recommend that relevant
policies make use of economic instruments appropriate
to each country's socio-economic conditions in
conjunction with a balanced mix of regulatory
approaches.
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21.
We note that energy production and use account for
nearly half of the enhanced radiative forcing
resulting from human activities and is projected to
increase substantially in the absence of appropriate
response actions. We recognize the promotion of
energy efficiency as the most cost-effective
immediate measure, in many countries, for reducing
energy-related emissions of greenhouse gases, [in
particular C02] while other [safe] options such as no
or lower greenhouse gas emitting energy sources
should also be pursued. These principles apply to
all energy sectors. Transport energy use attracts
special attention of many of us in the light of its
role in many developed countries and of its expected
importance in many developing countries.
22.
We recognize that there is no single quick-fix
technological option for limiting greenhouse gas
emissions. However, we are convinced that
technological innovation as well as individual and
social behaviour and institutional adaptations is a
key element of any long-term strategy that deals with
climate change in a way that meets the goal of
sustainable development. Therefore, we urge all
countries, the developed countries in particular, to
intensify their efforts and international cooperation
in technological research, development and
dissemination of appropriate and environmentally
sound technologies, including the reassessment and
improvement of existing technologies and the
introduction of new technologies.
23.
We urge that environmentally sound and safe
technologies be utilized by all sectors in all
countries to the fullest extent possible and further
urge all countries, developed and developing, to
identify and take effective measures to remove
barriers to the dissemination of such technologies.
To this end, the best available environmentally sound
and safe technologies should be transferred to
developing countries expeditiously on a fair and most
favourable basis.
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24.
We note that the conservation of the world's forests
in their role as reservoirs of carbon along with
other measures are of considerable importance for
global climatic stability, keeping in mind the
important role of forests in the conservation of
biological diversity and the protection of soil
stability and of the hydrological system. We
recognize the need to reduce the rate of
deforestation in consonance with the objective of
sustained yield development and to enhance the
potential of the world's forests through improved
management of existing forests and through vigorous
programmes of reforestation and afforestation, and to
support financially the developing countries in this
regard through enhanced and well-coordinated
international cooperation including strengthening
Tropical Forest Action Plan (TFAP) and International
Tropical Timber Organization (ITTO). We recommend
that the protection and management of boreal,
temperate, sub-tropical and tropical forest
ecosystems must be well-coordinated and preferably
compatible with other possible types of action
related to reduction of emission of greenhouse gases,
rational utilisation of biological resources,
provision of financial resources, and the need for
more favourable market conditions for timber and
timber products. The developing countries should be
able to realize increased revenue from these forests
and forest products.
25.
We also recognize that forests and forest products
play a key social and economic role in many nations
and communities. We recognize that States have, in
accordance with the Charter of the United Nations and
the principles of international law, the sovereign
right to exploit their own resources pursuant to
their own environmental policies, and the
responsibility to ensure that activities within their
jurisdiction or control do not cause damage to the
environment of other States or of areas beyond the
limits of national jurisdiction.
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26.
We recommend that appropriate precautionary and
control measures be developed and implemented at
regional, sub-regional and country levels as
appropriate to counter the increasing degradation of
land, water, genetic and other productive resource
bases by drought, desertification and land
degradation.
Observatories on climate and climate change and
observatories on ecosystems should be encouraged to
work together on drought risks consequences.
desertification. Studies must be undertaken on drought and
We stress that stepped-up financial and scientific
efforts. contributions be provided to facilitate these
27.
We recommend that similar measures be adopted to
address the particular problems and needs, including
funding, of low-lying coastal and small vulnerable
island countries, some of whose very existence is
placed at risk by the consequences of climate change.
III. GLOBAL FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE
28.
We call for negotiations on a framework convention on
climate change to begin without delay after a
decision is taken by the 45th Session of the General
Assembly of the United Nations recommending ways,
means and modalities for further pursuing these
negotiations. Taking note of all the preparatory
work, particularly the recommendations adopted
26 September 1990 by the Ad hoc working group of
government representatives and regional economic
integration organizations to prepare for negotiations
on a framework convention on climate change, we urge
all countries and regional economic integration
organizations to join in these negotiations and
recognize that it is highly desirable that an
effective framework convention on climate change,
containing appropriate commitments, and any related
instruments as might be agreed upon on the basis of
consensus, be signed in Rio de Janeiro during the
United Nations Conference on Environment and
Development. We welcome the offer of the Government
of the United States of America to host the first
negotiating meeting. [We also welcome the
invitations of Thailand and Italy to host workshops,
respectively on the feasibility of forestry options,
and on energy technologies and their transfer to
developing countries.)
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29.
We recommend that such negotiations take account of
the possible elements compiled by the IPCC, and that
the framework convention on climate change be framed
in such a way as to gain the support of the largest
possible number of countries while allowing timely
action to be taken. We reaffirm our wish that this
convention contain real commitments by the
international community. We stress, given the
complex and multi-faceted nature of the problem of
climate change, the need for new and innovative
solutions including the need to meet the special
needs of developing countries.
30.
We believe that a well-informed public is essential
for addressing and coping with as complex an issue as
climate change, and the resultant sea-level rise, and
urge countries, in particular, to promote the active
participation at the national and when appropriate,
regional levels of all sectors of the population in
addressing climate change issues and developing
appropriate responses. We also urge relevant United
Nations organizations and programmes to disseminate
relevant information with a view to encouraging as
wide a participation as possible.
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Maynerd
SECOND WORLD CLIMATE CONFERENCE
S&T/SWCC/No.: 13
SCIENTIFIC & TECHNICAL
PORTION
SECOND WORLD CLIMATE CONFERENCE
CONFERENCE STATEMENT
SCIENTIFIC/TECENICAL SESSIONS
FOREWORD
1.
The Second World Climate Conference was convened in Geneva,
Switzerland, from 29 October through 7 November, 1990, under the sponsorship
of the World Meteorological organization; the United Nations Environment
Programme; the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural
Organization and its Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission; the Food and
Agriculture Organization; and the International Council of Scientific Unions.
This Statement was adopted by the participants in the scientific and technical
sessions from 29 October to 3 November 1990, on the basis of the presentations
at the Conference, the deliberations of task groups of participants organized
to address various problem areas, and plenary discussions involving all
participants. The scientific and technical sessions involved more than 700
participants from over 100 countries.
2.
The Conference discussed the results of the first decade of work under
the World Climate Programme (WCP), the First Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (August, 1990) and the development
of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) and other relevant
global programmes. In particular, the Conference considered the role,
priorities, and programme structure for the future development of the World
Climate Programme.
SUMMARY STATEMENT
1.
Climate issues reach far beyond atmospheric and oceanic sciences,
affecting every aspect of life on this planet. The issues are increasingly
pivotal in determining future environmental and economic well-being.
Variations of climate have profound effects on natural and managed systems,
the economies of nations and the well-being of people everywhere. A clear
scientific consensus has emerged on estimates of the range of global warming
which can be expected during the 21st century (paragraph B). If the increase
of greenhouse gas concentrations is not limited, the predicted climate change
would place stresses on natural and social systems unprecedented in the past
10,000 years.
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2.
At the First World Climate Conference in 1979, nations were urged "to
foresee and to prevent potential man-made changes in climate that might be
adverse to the well-being of humanity". This Conference concludes that,
notwithstanding scientific and economic uncertainties, nations should now take
steps towards reducing sources and increasing sinks of greenhouse gases
through national actions and negotiation of a global convention on climate
change, and related legal instruments, with the long-term goal of halting the
build-up of greenhouse gases at a level that minimizes risks to society and
natural ecosystems. A major international observational and research effort
will be essential to strengthen the knowledge-base on climate processes and
human interactions, and to provide the basis for operational climate
monitoring and prediction. The remaining uncertainties must not be the basis
for deferring societal response to these risks. Many of the actions that
would reduce risk are also desirable on other grounds.
PART I. MAIN CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
A. Greenhouse Gases and Climate Change
1.
Emissions resulting from human activities are substantially increasing
atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases. These increases will
enhance the natural greenhouse effect, resulting on average in an additional
warming of the Earth's surface. The Conference agreed that this and other
scientific conclusions set out by the IPCC reflect the international consensus
of scientific understanding of climate change. Without actions to reduce
emissions, global warming is predicted to reach 2 to 5 degrees C over the next
century, a rate of change unprecedented in the past 10,000 years. The warming
is expected to be accompanied by a sea level rise of 65 Cm + 35 cm by the end
of the next century. There remain uncertainties in predictions, particularly
in regard to the timing, magnitude and regional patterns of climate change.
2.
Climate change and sea level rise would seriously threaten low-lying
islands and coastal zones. Water resources, agriculture and agricultural
trade, especially in arid and semi-arid regions, forests, and fisheries are
especially vulnerable to climate change. Climate change may compound existing
serious problems of the global mismatch between resources, population and
consumption. In many cases the impacts will be felt most severely in regions
already under stress, mainly in developing countries.
3.
Global warming induced by increased greenhouse gas concentrations is
delayed by the oceans; hence, much of the change is still to come. Inertia in
the climate system due to the influence of the oceans, the biosphere and the
long residence times of same greenhouse gases means that climate changes that
occur may persist for centuries.
4.
Natural sources and sinks of greenhouse gases are sensitive to a
change in climate. Although many of the response or feedback processes are
poorly understood, it appears likely that, as climate warms, these feedbacks
will lead to an overall increase rather than a decrease in greenhouse gas
concentrations.
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5.
The historical growth in emissions has been a direct consequence of
the increase of human population, rising incomes, the related exploitation of
fossil fuels by industrialized societies and the expansion of agriculture.
Under "business-as-usual" assumptions*, it is projected that emissions will
continue to grow in the future as a consequence of a projected doubling of
energy consumption in the first half of the 21st century and an expected
doubling of population by the latter half. As a result, the effect of
human-induced greenhouse gas concentrations on the earth's radiation balance
would by 2025 correspond to a doubling of carbon dioxide unless remedial
actions are taken.
6.
Over the last decade, emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) contributed
55% of the increased radiative forcing produced by greenhouse gases from human,
activities. The CFCs contributed about 24% of the past decade's changes, and
methane 15%, with the balance due to other greenhouse gases. With controls on
CFCB, the relative importance of CO2 emissions will increase, provided the
substitutes for CFCs have minimal greenhouse warming potential. Some 75% of
total CO2 emissions have come from the industrialized countries.
7.
The above emissions can be expected to change the planet's atmosphere
and climate, and a clear scientific consensus has been reached on the range of
changes to be expected. Although this range is large, it is prudent to
exercise, as a precautionary measure, actions to manage the risk of
undesirable climate change. In order to stabilize atmospheric carbon dioxide
concentrations by the middle of the 21st century at about 50% above
pre-industrial concentrations, a continous world-wide reduction of net carbon
dioxide emissions by 1 to 2% per year starting now would be required. The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPOC) also considered three other
emissions scenarios, which would not lead to stabilization of CO2
concentrations in the 21st century. A 15-20% reduction in methane emissions
would stabilize atmospheric concentrations of that gas.
8.
This Conference concludes that technically feasible and cost-effective
opportunities exist to reduce CO2 emissions in all countries. Such
opportunities for emissions reductions are sufficient to allow many
industrialized countries to stabilize CO₂ emissions from the energy sector and
to reduce these emissions by at least 20 percent by 2005. The measures
include increasing the efficiency of energy use and employing alternative
fuels and energy sources. As additional measures to achieve further
cost-effective reductions are identified and implemented, even greater
decreases in emissions would be achieved in the following decades. In
addition, reversing the current net losses in forests would increase storage
of carbon. The economic and social costs and benefits of such measures should
be urgently examined by all nations. An internationally coordinated
assessment should be undertaken through the IPCC.
* "Business-as-usual" assumes that few or no steps are taken to limit
greenhouse gas emissions. Energy use and clearing of tropical forests
continue and fossil fuels, in particular coal, remain the world's primary
energy source. The Montreal protocol comes into effect but without
strengthening and with less than 100 percent compliance.
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9.
Countries are urged to take immediate actions to control the risks of
climate change with initial emphasis on actions that would be economically and
socially beneficial for other reasons as well. Nations should launch
negotiations on a climate change convention and related legal instruments,
without delay and with the aim of signing such a convention in 1992.
B. Use of Climate Information in Assisting Sustainable Social and Economic
Development
Climate data, analyses, and eventually climate predictions can
contribute substantially to enhancing the efficiency and security of economic
and developmental activities in environmentally sustainable ways. These
benefits are particularly important in food and wood production, water
management, transportation, energy planning and production (including
assessment of potential resources of biomass, hydropower, solar and wind
energy), urban planning and design, human health and safety, combatting of
drought and land degradation, and tourism. This requires both data on the
climate system, and its effective application. Data acquisition, collection,
management and analysis must be more vigarously supported in all countries and
special assistance provided to developing countries through international
cooperation. Transfer of techniques for applying climate information should be
accelerated through more widespread use of software (e.g. CLICOM) for readily
available personal computers and other means. Further development of methods
for predicting short-term variations in climate and the environmental and
social impacts should be vigorously pursued. These advances would provide
enormous economic and other welfare benefits in coping with droughts,
prolonged rain, and periods of severe hot and cold weather. Such predictions
will require major steps forward in ocean-atmosphere-biosphere observing
systems. Much greater efforts are needed to increase involvement in these
training. fields by developing countries, especially through increased education and
C. Priorities for Enhanced Research and Observational Systems
1.
A consensus exists among scientists as summarized in the Report of
Working Group I of the IPCC that climate change will occur due to increasing
greenhouse gases. However, there is substantial scientific uncertainty in the
details of projections of future climate change. Projections of future
regional climate and climate impacts are much less certain than those on a
global scale. These uncertainties can only be narrowed through research
addressing the following priority areas:
clouds and the hydrological cycle
greenhouse gases and the global carbon and biogeochemical
cycles
oceans: physical, chemical and biological aspects; and
exchanges with the atmosphere
paleo-climatic studies
polar ice sheets and sea ice
terrestrial ecosystams.
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2.
These subjects are being addressed by national programmes, the World
Climate Research Programme and the International Geosphere-Biosphere
Programme. Increased national support and substantially increased funding of
these programmes is required if progress on the necessary time scale is to be
made in reducing these uncertainties.
3.
Present observational systems for monitoring the climate system are
inadequate for operational and research purposes. They are deteriorating in
both industrialized and developing regions. of special concern is the
inadequacy of observation systems in large parts of the southern hemisphere.
4.
High priority must be placed on providing high-quality, long-term data
for climate-related studies. Data should be available at no more than the
cost of reproduction and distribution. A full and open exchange of global and
other data sets needed for climate-related studies is required.
5.
There is an urgent need to create a Global Climate Observing System
(GCOS) modelled on the World Weather Watch Global Observing System and the
Integrated Global Ocean Service System and including both space-based and
surface-based observing components. GOOS should also include the data
communications and other infrastructure necessary to support operational
climate forecasting.
6.
GOOS should be designed to meet the needs for:
(a) climate system monitoring, climate change detection and response
monitoring, especially in terrestrial ecosystems
(b) data for application to national economic development, and
(c) research towards improved understanding, modelling and prediction
of the climate system.
7.
The main components of such & GOOS would be:
(1) an improved World Weather Watch Frogramme;
(2) the establishment of a global ocean observing system (GOOS) of
physical, chemical and biological measurements;
(3) the maintenance and enhancement of menitoring programmes of other
key components of the climate system, such as the distribution of
important atmospheric constituents (including the Global
Atmosphere Watch), changes in terrestrial ecosystems, clouds and
the hydrological cycle, the earth's radiation budget, ice sheets,
and precipitation over the oceans.
8.
The further development and implementation of the GOOS concept should
be pursued with urgency by scientists, governments and international
organizations. All countries must ensure a full and open exchange of the data
modelling. sets needed for climate system research, process and impact studies, and
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9.
The impacts of climate variability on human socio-economic systems
have provided major constraints to development. Climate change may compound
these constraints. In semi-arid regions of Africa, drought episodes have been
directly responsible for major human disasters. Research undertaken during
the first decade of the WCP and through other international and national
programmes has improved drought early warning systems including FAO's Global
Early Warning System and increased the reliability of climate impact
analyses. But much more remains to be done. Intensified efforts are required
to refine further our ability to predict short-term climate variability,
anticipate climate impacts, and identify rational strategies to mitigate or
prevent adverse effects. The threat of climate change brings new challenges
to the future well-being of people. This requires greater efforts to
understand impacts of climate change. Mitigation and adaptation strategies
are also essential. Immediate steps to be taken include:
(a) national and regional analyses of the impacts of climate
variability and change on society, and study of the range of
response and adaptation options available.
(b) closer co-operation and communication among natural and social
scientists, to ensure that climate considerations are accounted
for in development planning.
(c) studies. significant increases in resources to carry out impact/adaptation
10.
Improvements in energy efficiency and non-fossil fuel energy
technologies are of paramount importance, not only to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions but to move to more sustainable development pathways. Such advances
will co-development. require research and development, as well as technology transfer and
11.
A specific initiative would create a network of regional,
interdisciplinary research centres, located primarily in developing countries,
and focussing on all of the natural science, engineering and social science
disciplines required to support fully integrated studies of global change and
its impacts. The centres would conduct research and training on all aspects
of global change and study the interaction of regional and global policies.
D. Public Information
People need better information on the crucial role climate plays in
development and the additional risks posed by climate change. Governments,
intergovernmental and non-governmental organizations should give more emphasis
to providing accurate public information on climate issues. The public
information and education and training component in the WCP and IGBP must also
be expanded.
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PART II
Specific Issues:
1.
Water
1.1 Among the most important impacts of climate change will be its effects
on the hydrological cycle and water management systems, and through these, on
socio-economic systems. Increases in incidence of extremes, such as floods
and droughts, would cause increased frequency and severity of disasters.
1.2 The design of many costly structures to store and convey water, from
large dams to small drainage facilities, is based on analyses of past records
of climatic and hydrological parameters. Some of these structures are
designed to last 50-100 years or even longer. Records of past climate and
hydrological conditions may no longer be a reliable guide to the future. The
design and management of both structural and non-structural water resource
systems should allow for the possible effects of climate change.
1.3 Data systems and research must be strengthened to predict water
resources impacts, detect hydrological changes, and improve hydrological
parameterization in global climate models.
1.4 Transfer of existing and novel technologies, for more efficient use of
water for irrigation, should be made available to developing countries in
semi-arid zones.
2.
Agriculture and Food
2.1 Important uncertainties remain regarding the prediction of the
magnitude and nature of potential impacts of changing climate and higher CO2
levels on global food security. The potential impact on food production in
developing countries (with more than half the world's population) could be
more uncertain than recent reviews suggest.
2.2 High priority should therefore be given to research on the direct
effects of rising CO₂ concentrations on food and fibre crop productivity and
equal priority should be given to research an agricultural emissions SO as to
determine agriculture's present and potential role as a source of and sink for
greenhouse gases, and to clarify the costs and possible trade-offs arising
from limitation measures.
2.3 New or strengthened institutional mechanisms are required to upgrade
natural resource inventories, research strategies and extension services to
raise agricultural productivity and minimize emissions. These mechanisms
should include collaborative programmes between FAO and international and
national agencies with stress on interdisciplinary activities on the food
security implications.
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3.
Oceans, Fisheries, and Coastal Zones
3.1
Shorter term variations in the earth's climate are determined by the
coupled ocean - atmosphere system. Coastal zones and their associated high
biological productivity, including fisheries, are especially affected. Thus,
an improved data base of oceanic parameters is considered indispensable for
operational climate forecasting. It is recommended that a global ocean
observing and data management system be developed for improving predictions of
climate change. Research on the ocean will provide quantification of the
feedback loops in climate processes. Observation and research on the El Niño
- Southern Oscillation phenomena, on upwelling areas and on biological
productivity of the open sea are also important.
3.2
Coastal zones, which are the source of most of the global fish catch,
are especially susceptible to effects of global warming and sea level rise.
Predicting the impact of changes would be of enormous benefit to the
increasing mumber of people living in coastal areas. Thus, it is also
recommended that a programme of coastal zone research and monitoring be
established to identify the effects of climate change on the coast and coastal
ecosystems, and to assess the vulnerability of various natural and managed
ecosystems such as coral reefs, mangroves and coastal aquaculture.
3.3
Action should be taken new to develop coastal zone adaptation
strategies and policies.
4.
Energy
4.1
In order to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases
while allowing for growth in emissions from developing countries,
insustrialled countries must implement reductions even greater than those
required, on average, for the globe as a whole. However, even where very
large technical and economic opportunities have been identified for reducing
energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, and even where there are significant
and multiple benefits associated with these measures, implementation is being
slowed and sometimes prevented by a host of barriers. These barriers exist at
all levels - at the level of consumers, energy equipment manufacturers and
suppliers, industries, utilities, and governments. Overcoming the barriers
obstructing least-cost approaches to meeting energy demands will require
responses from all parts of society - individual consumers, industry,
governments, and non-governmental organizations.
4.2 Developing countries also have an important role in limiting climate
change. Maintaining development as a principal objective, energy and
development paths can be chosen that have the additional benefit of reducing
radiative forcing.
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5.
Land Use and Urban Planning
Population growth, increasing urbanization, and competing demands for
finite areas of arable land will produce increasingly severe problems of food
supply, energy production, and water resources. Climate changes may
exacerbate these problems in some regions. Prudent planning will require
baseline analyses of land use, quality and quantity of water resources, and
the vulnerability of urbanized societies to environmental change. In
particular, improved adaptation of urban areas to local climatic regimes needs
to be achieved by more appropriate design of their layouts and building
densities, and of building construction through modifications of building and
planning regulations. Because conurbations make a major contribution to
energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, the design and efficiency of all
aspects of urban systems should be enhanced.
6.
Health and Human Dimensions
6.1 The direct impact of climate change on people, their health and
cultural heritage, could be severe. There is likely to be increased health
inequity between peoples of developing and developed countries. Climatic
change could result in creating environmental refugees with associated
increases of ill-health, disease and death among them.
6.2 Global warming is likely to shift the range of favourable conditions
for certain pests and diseases, causing additional stresses on people,
particularly those of the semi-arid tropics. It must be appreciated however
that serious problems may arise in all parts of the world.
6.3 Research into how human behaviour contributes to and responds to
climate change must have increased emphasis. Public awareness and education
programmes are particularly essential in this regard.
7.
Environment and Development
7.1 Climate change, superimposed on population pressures, excessive
consumption, and other stresses on the environment imperils the sustainability
of socio-economic development throughout the world. In addition, slowing
climate change will give countries more time to enhance their prospects for
sustainable development. The developed countries need to reduce emissions and
assist the developing countries to adopt new, clean technologies.
7.2 Climate change has such important implications for the sustainability
of development that policy responses, including measures to reduce greenhouse
gases, measures to reduce deforestation, and the commitment of financial and
other resources, are justified for that reason alone. Economic policies, such
as subsidies and trade restraints, can distart markets so they harm the
environment and contribute to global warming and sea level rise. There is an
imperative need for development policies that not only reduce global warming
trends but also increase economic and social resilience.
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8.
Forests
While increasing forest cover can contribute to the slowing of global
climate change, this is not the major cure for the problem.
Five priority actions are recommended:
Firstly, assessing national opportunities to increase forest carbon
storage commensurate with national resource development policies,
developing an approach by 1992 and completing assessment by 1995.
Secondly, managing the world's forests to optimize biomass and
resultant carbon storage in addition to the maintenance of sustainable
yields of forest products, biological diversity, water quality and the
many other values that forests provide.
Thirdly, accelerating research to assess the added contribution that
forests can make to atmospheric CO2 reduction and the impacts of
climate change on the world's forests.
Fourthly, designing and implementing international monitoring systems
to determine conditions and changes in forest ecosystems in response
to anticipated climate changes.
Finally, supporting the development of a proposed international
instrument on conservation and development of the world's forest
linked with the proposed climate and biodiversity conventions.
PART III
Organizational and Policy Issues for International Activities
1.
The future structure of the WCP
1.1
The organizational framework for international scientific research is
in place, constituted by the WCRP, emphasizing the physical aspects, and the
IGBP, covering bio-geochemical aspects.
1.2
The World Climate Data Programme, renamed the World Climate System
Monitoring Programme, should be redefined to take into account new objectives.
1.3
Additional elements of the new WCP (WCP-2) should cover adaptation and
mitigation, and education.
1.4
Governments should establish national committees for the WCP to
mobilize support for national activities and to coordinate efforts. The UN
agencies and ICSU should work towards ensuring regular contact and exchange of
information with national committees.
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1.5 The mechanism established for overall coordination of the WCP,
involving meetings of the chairs of steering bodies for the various
components, should be actively supported by WMO, the other UN bodies concerned
and ICSU. Annual meetings of Executive Heads should consider their
recommendations.
1.6 Restructuring and strengthening of the WCP will also be necessary to
support new activities, such as the development of the proposed GOOS. The
Conference recommended that a proposal for the new structure of WCP be
formulated and presented to the Eleventh World Meteorological Congress, May
1991, and at appropriate meetings of other participating agencies.
2.
Special needs of the developing countries
2.1 As stated in the IPCC report, industrialized and developing countries
have a common but differentiated responsibility for dealing with the problems
of climate change. The problem is largely the consequence of past patterns of
economic growth in the industrial countries. However, in future the much
needed economic growth in the developing countries could play an important
role in determining the rate of climate change.
2.2 Developing countries are being asked to participate in the alleviation
of the legacy of environmental damage from prior industrialization. If they
are to avoid the potentially disastrous course followed by industrialized
countries in the past, they need to adopt modern technologies early in the
process of development, particularly in regard to energy efficiency. They
also must be full partners in the global scientific and technical effort that
will be required. It is clear that developing countries must not go through
the evolutionary process of previous industrialization but rather, must
"leapfrog" ahead directly from a status of under-development through to
efficient, environmentally benign, technologies presently found only in the
most advanced industrial economies.
2.3 Although developing countries have collaborated in providing data, and
participated to a degree in meetings and research, they have benefited to a
lesser extent from the analyses developed from their contributions, and even
less so from the applications derived therefrom.
2.4 Therefore, a massive and sustained flow of scientific and
technological expertise towards the development of the intellectual resources,
technical and institutional capacity of the developing countries is a
necessary complement to the efforts of those countries.
2.5 Developing countries should be assisted to build up their capabilities
- to monitor, assess and apply climate information;
- to prepare inventories of greenhouse gases emissions and
future emissions projections;
- to identify impacts of potential global warming;
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- to prepare cost estimates and priorities for response
strategies to adapt and mitigate problems posed by climate
change;
- to participate in the World Climate Programme.
The mechanisms of the transfer of technology and provision of
technical assistance and co-operation to developing countries
should take into account considerations such as the need for
preferential and assured access, intellectual property rights, the
environmental soundness of such technology and the financial
implications.
Taking note that industry plays a significant role in the
development and transfer of science and technology, efforts by
industry to promote further the development and transfer of
environmentally sound technologies should be encouraged, and
policies to encourage such efforts should be formulated.
Additional financial resources will have to be channelled to
developing countries for those activities which contribute both to
limiting greenhouse gas emissions and/or adapting to any adverse
effects of climate change, and promoting economic development.
Areas for co-operation and assistance could include the efficient
use of energy, land use planning, forest management, soil and
water conservations, strengthening of observational systems and
scientific and technological capabilities.
3.
Co-operation in international research
3.1
The existing and planned research projects of the WCRP and the IGBP
address the highest priority scientific issues related to the understanding
and prediction of climate variability and change.
3.2
These programmes should be implemented completely and rigorously. It
is particularly important that adequate funding including long term funding be
provided.
3.3
In view of the progress made in climate research, it is now timely to
proceed to the detailed design of an operational global climate observing
system, together with the data communications and other infrastructure needed
to support operational climate forecasting. Governments should enter into
early discussions aimed at international cooperation in operational climate
forecasting and climate change research.
4.
Co-ordinated International Activities
4.1
The Conference endorsed the three streams of international activity:
a. continuing global measurement and research efforts through the
WCP, IGBP, and other related international programmes.
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b. Assessment functions of a continuing IPCC to support
negotiation and administration of a Convention.
c. Development of a Convention on Climate Change for governmental
action.
4.2 The UN Conference on Environmental and Development (Brazil 1992)
provides a valuable opportunity to relate the above three themes to all the
other environment/development issues and objectives being examined by the
Conference. It is therefore essential that the three streams should interact
effectively with UNCED.
4.3
It is proposed that the sponsoring agencies for the SWOC consider the
possibility of holding a Third World Climate Conference at an appropriate time
about 2000 AD.
5.
Policy Development
5.1 The development of policy regarding climate change requires on the
part of policy makers an understanding of the underlying science and a
weighing of the scientific uncertainties associated with the prediction of
climate change and its likely impacts. An important aspect of future work is
therefore a continued dialogue between scientists and policy makers.
5.2 It is essential that all parties to any Convention and related legal
instruments should, under its obligations, participate fully in the free
exchange and flow of information necessary for the development and technical
input of the convention. Such a convention should include a technical annex
to provide for:
- International co-operation in research, systematic observation and
exchange of related information;
- Adjustments based on up-dates of scientific knowledge;
- Strengthening national scientific and environmental capabilities
of developing countries.
(STATEMEN/V.5)
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
September 24, 1990
MEMORANDUM FOR GOVERNOR SUNUNU
FROM:
D. ALLAN BROMLEY
Anan
SUBJECT:
ISSUES ON THE FRAMEWORK CONVENTION
ORGANIZATIONAL MEETING AND THE SECOND WORLD
CLIMATE CONFERENCE
Background
The President offered to host the first negotiating session for a Framework
Convention on global climate change at Malta last year, and reiterated the invitation
at the White House Conference on the Science and Economics of Global Change. In
May of this year a tentative decision was made to begin the negotiations in the first
week of February 1991, preceded by a preparatory committee meeting or meetings this
fall. The first preparatory meeting will be held September 24 to 26. Organizational
issues for the first negotiating session will be discussed at that time.
The Second World Climate Conference is scheduled for October 29 to November 7 in
Geneva. It will focus on scientific issues, including the IPCC report. A ministerial
session has been scheduled for the final two days of the conference, which will
produce a Ministerial Declaration. A preparatory committee meeting will be held
September 27 to 29 in Geneva.
The Global Change Strategy Task Force (a steering group of the DPC Global Change
Working Group) met last Tuesday to address some minor, outstanding organizational
issues for the first negotiating session and substantive issues in the proposed
Ministerial Declaration for the Second World Climate Conference. Unanimous
agreement was reached on the organizational issues for the Framework Convention,
and this was relayed to the U.S. delegation. General agreement was reached on the
Second World Climate Conference issues. A summary of the discussion and
recommendations follows.
Framework Convention Negotiations - Organizational Issues
The Strategy Task Force recommended the following guidance for our representatives
at the preparatory committee meeting with respect to the starting date, length, and
location of the first negotiating session:
The U.S. strongly prefers a one-week session beginning February 4 in Washington,
D.C.. However, if there is strong international pressure for a two-week meeting, we
would agree to a ten-day meeting as a fallback position.
The group had considered either Washington, D.C., or Dallas, Texas as alternate
locations. A paper comparing the suitability of the two cities was circulated to Task
Force members and the group decided on Washington. This was based on cost
considerations, the availability of appropriate facilities, press coverage, the amount of
influence a U.S. delegation could have in the process, and the potential for a
Presidential appearance.
Second World Climate Conference
The State Department has compiled interagency comments on a draft ministerial
declaration produced by the Second World Climate Conference Secretariat. The
Strategy Task Force discussion focused on a limited number of issues on which the
U.S. would not be prepared to negotiate. These include:
We should not agree to specific targets and timetables for reducing greenhouse
gas emissions;
There should be no provision for "new and additional" funding (for developing
countries);
There should be no mention of separate protocols to a framework convention;
The comprehensive approach, which addresses all greenhouse gases, their
sources and sinks, must be an integral part of the approach;
The declaration must accurately describe the scientific context and
uncertainties associated with potential climate change;
The Task Force prepared alternate language for these and other issues of particular
interest, as well as fallback modifications of existing language which could be used in
negotiating final language during the September 27 to 29 preparatory meeting. A
more comprehensive briefing on these issues can be scheduled for you, if you would
like.
State and Commerce will represent the U.S. at the September preparatory meeting.
The Strategy Task Force strongly recommends that Dr. John Knauss, Undersecretary
of Commerce, head the U.S. delegation to the ministerial portion of the conference in
October. An immediate announcement of the Knauss appointment will tend to
discourage head of state participation by other countries as well as prevent
speculation on any appearance by higher level U.S. representatives. In addition, it
reinforces our continuing commitment to focusing the climate change discussions on
science and decreases the opportunity for rhetoric, as was characteristic of Noordwijk.
Therefore, the Task Force recommends that Dr. Knauss be appointed to head the
delegation as soon as possible.
Comments:
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
August 30, 1990
MEMORANDUM FOR JOHN H. SUNUNU
FROM:
D. ALLAN BROMLEY Auan
SUBJECT:
ARTICLE ON GLOBAL CHANGE FOR
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Attached is the final draft of an article scheduled to be published in the Fall
issue of Issues in Science and Technology. The article has been scrubbed and
approved by OMB, Cabinet Affairs, CEA, NSF, EPA, and USGS.
As you probably know, Issues in Science and Technology is the quarterly policy
journal published by the National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of
Engineering, and Institute of Medicine. They had asked me to write this article when
I first came to Washington, and only now am I getting it done, just a few days before
their final deadline. But the timing is propitious, because it allows me to make some
points about global change that I believe will serve the Administration's purposes
during the rough-and-tumble of the next few months.
Attachment
ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
BROMLEY
DRAFT: DO NOT QUOTE OR DISTRIBUTE
[August 30, 1990]
THE MAKING OF A GREENHOUSE POLICY
by D. Allan Bromley
[draft article for Fall issue of
Issues in Science and Technology]
Within the past several years, global change has become the archetypal science
policy issue. It combines almost all of the elements of public policy debates that have
a substantial scientific component: questions about scientific data and conclusions,
the difficulty of translating scientific analysis into politically relevant terms, competing
interests with multiple agendas, differing international perspectives on common
problems, and decision-making based on less-than-complete information. It has
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received an enormous amount of attention from politicians, from environmentalists,
from the media, and from the public. Since I became Assistant to the President for
Science and Technology last August, no issue has consumed more of my time than
has global change.
Given the broad slate of science policy issues that demand attention, it can
sometimes be frustrating to dwell so predominantly on a phenomenon --
anthropogenic climate change on a global scale -- that has yet to be conclusively
demonstrated. Not that the global environment has never changed. At the height of
the last ice age about 20,000 years ago -- not long, in geological terms, before humans
are widely believed to have first crossed the Bering land bridge into North America --
glaciers over two kilometers high covered much of the northern United States and
Europe, and sea level was 100 meters lower than at present. These natural changes
in the Earth's climate have occurred throughout its history, and they will continue to
occur in the future.
It is also true that, during the past century, human society has entered into a
new and momentous relationship with the global environment. For the first time in
history, our species has become an agent capable of influencing the entire planet. We
have altered the face of the Earth by clearing forests, building cities, and converting
wild lands to agriculture. We have changed the composition of the Earth's
atmosphere by burning fossil fuels, expanding agriculture, and producing and
releasing industrial compounds. As Roger Revelle and Hans E. Suess wrote as early
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as 1957, "human beings are now carrying out a large-scale geophysical experiment of
a kind that could not have happened in the past nor be reproduced in the future."
It may be, as many have suggested, that global climate change will become a
problem of very serious consequence. Certainly, the possibility of such change is
being taken seriously by all governments, and appropriate actions are being
considered to deal with the possible effects of climate change.
It may also be that the other issues usually subsumed under the term "global
change" -- such as ozone depletion, the adequacy of food and water supplies,
deforestation, desertification, levels of biodiversity, or soil erosion -- turn out to be
more serious in terms of human impact than global climate change. The only
reasonable course is to move forward on all of these issues simultaneously.
Scientific knowns and unknowns
Bertrand Russell once wrote, "The most savage controversies are those about
matters as to which there is no good evidence either way." Certainly if more were
known about global change, the policy disputes would not be nearly so acrimonious.
If it were possible, for example, to unequivocally associate the warmer-than-average
years of the 1980s with the greenhouse effect, multibillion-dollar decisions affecting
life-styles and the quality of life would appear less open to question. If computer
models of the earth system could precisely mimic the observed temperatures changes
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ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
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of the past century, they would provide a more solid foundation for policymaking.
For that matter, the policy debate will be quite different in the year 2000 if
temperatures rise sharply in the 1990s.
For now, though, it is important for policymakers clearly to keep in mind what
is known and what is not known about the Earth system. Based on exacting
measurements of atmospheric gases and the bubbles trapped in ice sheets, researchers
know that the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased by about 25
percent since preindustrial times. Atmospheric levels of methane, another potent
greenhouse gas, have doubled over the same period. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC's)
released into the atmosphere, which are almost certainly responsible for the ozone
hole over Antarctica, also act as greenhouse gases, as do several other atmospheric
constituents with increasing concentration levels, including tropospheric ozone and
nitrous oxide.
Computer models of the atmosphere reproduce the current global climate and
changes of seasons with a fair degree of accuracy. When these models are run with
twice as much carbon dioxide in their atmospheres, global average surface
temperature is somewhere between 1.5 and 4.5 degrees Celsius higher than at present.
However, the treatment in these models of such fundamental and important features
of the Earth system as clouds, oceans, and ice remain suspect. It may be that the
models inadequately simulate some fundamental aspect of the Earth system that
drastically reduces the predicted climate effects of greenhouse gas emissions -- or
makes them worse.
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Thus, computer models have been unable to specify with any certainty the
magnitude, rate, or timing of future climate change. Nor do models give much
indication of how potentially-important climate variables -- including mean annual
temperatures, seasonal and daily maximums and minimums in temperature, seasonal
and annual precipitation, the degree and frequency of variations in precipitation, and
the degree and frequency of extreme events such as storms -- might change.
Furthermore, present models are totally unable to make reliable climate predictions
on regional and local scales, yet these are essential if we are to be able to quantify
the detailed impacts of global change.
The geological record also offers incomplete clues to the effects of greenhouse
forcing. Earth scientists have found that global temperatures and atmospheric carbon
dioxide levels have risen and fallen naturally and largely in parallel for the past
160,000 years. However, it is difficult to tell whether temperatures lead carbon
dioxide or vice versa, and the mechanisms connecting these natural fluctuations
remain obscure.
The same pattern of concrete observations paired with uncertain implications
marks the record of global temperatures. Scientists now generally agree that the
planet has warmed up by 0.3 to 0.6 degrees Celsius during the past century. But very
few scientists would claim that they are yet able to determine whether any of that
warming can be attributed to an enhanced greenhouse effect or whether it represents
a natural fluctuation. Of particular interest in this regard have been recent precise
temperature measurements by satellite of the global atmosphere. They show that,
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ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
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even though surface measurements in some regions indicate that the 1980s were one
of the warmest decades on record, average global temperatures did not increase from
1979 to 1989. Yet the magnitude and rate of increase of anthropogenic loading of the
atmosphere with greenhouse gases were at unprecedented levels during the 1980s.
Based on climatic modeling and paleoclimatic research, scientists now generally
agree that continued loading of the atmosphere with greenhouse gases will lead to
global climate change. But without further research, the nature and dimensions of
that change will remain elusive. Furthermore, we are only beginning to understand
what the impacts of a potential change might be on agricultural productivity, sea level
changes, biological productivity in the oceans, shifting vegetation patterns, storm
patterns and severity, droughts, and the like. The various components of the
geosphere, hydrosphere, atmosphere, and biosphere are bound up in a fantastically
intricate and mutually counterbalancing system, and it will be many years before we
can reliably predict how changes in one part of the system affect every other part.
Numerous uncertainties
Many of the observations made above also appear in the report of Working
Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), an international
body of hundreds of scientists and government officials set up by the United Nations
Environment Program and World Meteorological Program to establish a global
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ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
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consensus on the likely causes and consequences of climate change. The charge to
Working Group I, which was chaired by the United Kingdom, was to assess the
current scientific understanding of climate change. The second working group,
chaired by the Soviet Union, assessed the possible environmental and socioeconomic
effects of a changing climate. The third, chaired by the United States, sought to
identify potential responses to climatic changes.
The three working groups presented their reports at the end of the summer as
input to the Second World Climate Conference in Geneva on October 29 - November
7, 1990. These reports are an important resource for policymakers grappling with
issues of global change. They will be among the most authoritative statements on the
causes and consequences of climate change well into the future.
Nevertheless, to read the reports of the IPCC is to be struck again by the
formidable difficulties that still surround this subject. Working Group I devoted
considerable attention to scientific uncertainties in its report (although they tend to
be minimized in the Executive Summary), concluding that "much uncertainty exists in
the prediction of global climate properties such as temperatures and rainfall" and
that "even greater uncertainty exists in predictions of regional climate change, and the
subsequent consequences for sea level and ecosystems."
Working Group II's study of potential impacts also cited the uncertainties
hampering their task, pointing out that "confidence in regional estimates of critical
climate factors is low, [particularly] of precipitation and soil moisture, where there is
considerable disagreement between various general-circulation-model and paleoanalog
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ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
BROMLEY
results." The working group also found many scientific questions surrounding the
relationships between climate change and biological effects and between biological
effects and socioeconomic impacts. Uncertainties about the lengths of time lags at
each step from emissions to climate change to socioeconomic impacts are particularly
troublesome, because the severity of impacts depends on the ability to adjust and
hence partially on the length of the lags.
Finally, Working Group III concluded that the existing uncertainties make it
very difficult to determine which responses to potential climate change make sense. It
wrote: "The consideration of climate change response strategies ... presents
formidable difficulties for policymakers. On the one hand, the information available
to make sound policy analyses is inadequate because of: (a) remaining scientific
uncertainties regarding the magnitude, timing, rate, and regional consequences of
potential climate change; (b) uncertainty with respect to how effective specific
response options or groups of options would be in actually averting potential climate
change; and (c) uncertainty with respect to the costs, effects on economic growth, and
other economic and social implications of specific response options or groups of
options."
These many uncertainties do not argue for inaction (a point to which I shall
return later). But they do make it exceedingly difficult to impose policies that may
have large additional costs on specific sectors of society or on specific countries,
because the affected sectors or countries can legitimately point to the uncertainties in
arguing against the policies. The wrangling involved in getting a Clean Air Act
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ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
BROMLEY
through Congress gives some indication, on a much smaller scale, of what will be
involved in negotiations over global change.
At the same time, any discussion of uncertainties must acknowledge the fact
that the unknowns cut both ways: climate models could understate as well as
overstate the extent of the problem. For example, there is growing suspicion from the
paleoecological data -- as yet unconfirmed -- that atmosphere-ocean interactions may
harbor the possibility of surprises. If it should turn out, for example, that relatively
small, and not as yet understood, mechanisms could shift ocean circulation patterns
from one stable configuration to another, the potential impacts could be large.
A better known example of a climatic surprise was the development of the
ozone hole over Antarctica. The ozone hole was not predicted or originally
understood, although its detailed chemical mechanisms have now been explained at
the molecular level. Nevertheless, the ozone hole has demonstrated that, contrary to
long-held assumptions, our atmosphere is not so large, nor its inertia so great, that
human activities cannot affect it under certain circumstances on human time scales.
Human release of CFCs, combined with unique meteorological conditions, created the
ozone hole in only a few decades at most.
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BROMLEY
The need for research
In the absence of a clearly identifiable signal of greenhouse warming -- which
the IPCC deems unlikely for a decade or more -- there is only one way to reduce the
uncertainties associated with global change: through concerted national and
international research programs. In the United States, such a program has been
organized by the Working Group on Global Change of the federal interagency
Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences. This U.S. Global Change Research
Program -- a government-wide effort to monitor and understand the Earth system and
predict global change -- is designed to significantly expand data gathering, research,
and modeling activities. A significant component of the program is environmental
observations and measurements from space.
The budget that President Bush sent to Capitol Hill last January -- reflecting
the compelling case made by the Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences for
a comprehensive, national program -- called for a 57 percent increase in funding for
the program, to a total of over $1 billion. This is far more than any other nation is
spending on global change research and in my view is a clear indication of this
Administration's commitment to what President Bush has termed "global stewardship."
The committee has focused on three classes of key scientific questions: What
global change has occurred in the past and is occurring now? What physical,
chemical, biological, geological, and social processes are involved in global change?
And how well can global change be predicted globally and regionally? To address
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ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
BROMLEY
these questions, the committee has divided the research program into seven
interdisciplinary scientific elements: climate and hydrologic systems, biogeochemical
dynamics, ecological systems and dynamics, earth system history, human interactions,
solid earth processes, and solar influences.
To take one important research area as an example, the committee has
emphasized the need to better understand both natural and anthropogenic flows of
greenhouse gases. According to the IPCC, a reduction of over 60 percent in carbon
dioxide emissions would be needed to stabilize the concentration of the gas at current
levels -- a restriction that would sharply reduce living standards around the world
and cause widespread suffering in poorer nations. But the natural fluxes of carbon
dioxide are approximately 20 times the anthropogenic ones, so the same net effect can
be obtained through only a 2 to 3 percent increase in the gas's natural sinks.
Innovative ideas on ways to draw carbon dioxide from the air -- such as macroalgal
ocean farming and fertilizing microalgal blooms -- are now being proposed. Much
more study of natural sources and sinks is needed, of course, to determine if
proposals such as these are viable.
The economic factor
This scientific research will be an indispensable part of our response to the
possibility of global change. But it is important to keep in mind that even if all of
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the physical, chemical, and biological questions surrounding global change were
answered tomorrow, appropriate policies would still be far from obvious. Global
change is an inherently interdisciplinary problem, drawing not only on the natural
sciences but on economics, sociology, and (especially in the last few years) politics.
The full range of questions surrounding global change cannot be answered without
input from the social sciences.
The most obvious intersection of global change with the social sciences involves
future emissions. It is certainly possible to conceive of a world that supports an even
larger population while releasing fewer greenhouse gases into the atmosphere
(although the costs required to achieve such a world are likely to be very great). It is
also possible to conceive of a world with global greenhouse emissions at least several
times today's level, particularly if CFC's are not fully controlled and if countries
begin to rely much more extensively on coal for increased energy needs.
The major social uncertainties revolve around population growth rates, the pace
and nature of economic development, and the availability of new technologies. These
uncertainties are particularly acute for the developing world. According to the World
Resources Institute, developing countries already account for a substantial portion of
total greenhouse emissions when all greenhouse gases are included; in fact, the top
five greenhouse contributors in 1987 were the United States, the Soviet Union, Brazil,
China, and India. Furthermore, the relative contribution of the developing countries
is going to continue to increase as their industrialization proceeds.
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Economics research will also be crucial in estimating the costs of either
mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse-gas emissions now or adapting to
climate change after it occurs. Such research will enable sound comparisons of the
costs of various policies aimed at mitigation with the benefits, in terms of reduced
adaptation costs, that those policies would yield. Such comparisons, using discounting
to reflect the earlier occurrence of mitigation costs, must be the basis for sound
policymaking.
Several promising estimates of costs are already being developed, but no one
doubts that these estimates will inevitably rest on numerous simplifying assumptions.
One problem is that the nature of costs varies from place to place. In the developed
countries, costs of lowering energy usage can be measured in terms of reduced
economic growth, which causes economic hardships to substantial numbers of people.
But in the developing world, reduced economic growth must be measured in more
stark terms: lives lost, hunger increased, social instability heightened. Similarly, the
costs of climate change in the developing world are likely to be higher and more
disruptive than in the developed nations, where it is more likely that the resources to
adapt to changing climates will be available.
The central role of economics research in global change was a major
consideration in the White House Conference on Science and Economics Research
Related to Global Change, which was held in Washington, D.C., on April 17-18, 1990.
Hosted by Michael Deland, Chairman of the Council on Environmental Quality,
Michael Boskin, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors, and myself, the
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conference brought together delegations from 17 countries and from the European
Community and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development to
explore what we know and do not know about the scientific, economic, and policy
questions surrounding global change.
The conference was organized around a straightforward but surprisingly
unexplored question: How best can the results of both scientific and economic
research into global change be integrated into the policymaking process? Although
the format of the conference received some criticism, it achieved much of what it set
out to achieve. In particular, several promising proposals on international
cooperation emerged from the conference, including one to establish a series of
research institutes devoted to the scientific, economic, and policy issues surrounding
the global environment. The transnational and multidisciplinary nature of such
institutes would provide an added dimension to national and international discussions
of global change.
An insurance policy against climate change
After a year of intense involvement with this issue, I am convinced that, at
present, no justification exists for imposing substantial new costs on society solely to
lower greenhouse-gas emissions. But the climate models and paleoclimatic data
cannot be ignored, and the United States and other countries cannot wait until all of
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the facts are known to take action. Enhanced levels of research -- in many areas --
are one form of action, but they are not, by themselves, enough.
Thus, the Bush Administration has instituted a number of policies that will
reduce greenhouse-gas emissions and that are justified for other reasons as well. I
think of them as an "insurance policy" that will delay any possible adverse effects of
climate change while research and technology development proceed. Among these
policies are the following:
0 The United States is committed to phasing out the manufacture of CFC's by
the year 2000 to protect the stratospheric ozone layer. Based on their greenhouse
properties, CFC's accounted for 14 percent of all greenhouse-gas emissions in the
1980s, and if not controlled they could account for as much as 25 percent of the
additional emissions over the next century.
0 The Clean Air Act now being debated in Congress will substantially reduce
emissions of greenhouse gases by fostering more efficient use of energy. The
Environmental Defense Fund has estimated that the acid rain provisions of this
legislation alone, if implemented, will have an effect comparable to that of removing
fully one fifth of the U.S. automotive fleet (22 million automobiles) from our highways
for a period of 10 years.
0 The U.S. Department of Energy is developing a National Energy Strategy
that will include an aggressive commitment to energy conservation and energy
security. Energy conservation is the quickest and most effective way to reduce
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greenhouse-gas emissions and can have a number of other benefits, including
improved economic efficiency, reduced emissions of other pollutants, and less U.S.
dependence on imported oil. In addition, technology development is a crucial hedge
against the possibility of future warming, because it will ease the transition from
processes that produce greenhouse gases (if substantial emission reductions prove
necessary). Research and development on non-fossil-fuel technologies -- including
nuclear energy and solar energy -- will be an important component of any national or
international strategy to address global change.
These initiatives address the source component of the greenhouse gas question.
Turning to the sink component, this country is again taking concrete steps.
0 The President has proposed a combined public and private sector initiative
to plant a billion trees per year for five years on private land across America, trees
that will eventually absorb 13 million tons of carbon annually. This is just part of
the United States' current carbon emissions -- about 5 percent if such a program
were continued for 20 years -- but these trees will provide additional benefits, such as
recreational areas and heightened public awareness of environmental issues.
0 At the Houston Summit Conference in July, the President proposed that a
global forestry convention be negotiated as soon as possible to curb deforestation,
protect biodiversity, address threats to the world's forests, and promote actions that
expand and strengthen forests.
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All of these actions are justified for other reasons, yet together they can have a
substantial impact on greenhouse-gas emissions. Preliminary estimates by the
Environmental Protection Agency indicate that, using a measure of global warming
potential that accounts for residence times in the atmosphere, these actions would
hold U.S. greenhouse-gas emissions at 1987 levels until at least the year 2000. This
would provide a ten-year window of opportunity to determine what future actions are
necessary.
Insurance policies against the possibility of climate change are not limited to
our own country. As in the case of deforestation, the United States can also influence
the actions of other countries in ways that are mutually beneficial. I believe that this
country now has a unique window of opportunity in which to provide Third World
and Eastern European nations with technology, know-how, and financial assistance to
permit them sustained economic growth with minimal damage to the global
environment. If we do this on our own initiative, we will gain three benefits: we act
to preserve the quality of the environment; we have the potential of substantial
positive political fall-out; and we gain access for American industry to what will
inevitably be a very large global market. If, on the other hand, we are pressured or
are perceived to be pressured into taking such action, we will gain the first benefit
but stand to lose the second and much of the third.
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A Framework Convention
These considerations will be very much a part of the next major step in the
making of a greenhouse policy: the establishment of a Framework Convention on
climate change. At the Malta summit last December, President Bush proposed that
the first negotiating sessions leading to such an international agreement be held in
the United States, an offer that he has repeated several times since.
In considering the outlines of a Framework Convention, a useful analog is the
Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer, which was established by
the United States and 20 other countries in 1985. The Vienna Convention established
a framework for international scientific and technical cooperation on ozone
destruction. It did not, however, set limits on CFC emissions. Rather, it included
provisions to establish protocols as further research demonstrated the need for
additional action. The 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that deplete the Ozone
Layer was the result of this process.
A Framework Convention on global change could serve the same function,
although CFC emissions and greenhouse-gas emissions are quite different phenomena.
Such a convention would establish general principles and obligations, based on a
negotiated international consensus, by which future steps can be taken. It would be
designed to gain the adherence of the largest possible number of countries while
permitting timely action to be taken. The United States is now in the process of
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formulating its position for the negotiations, with coordination being provided by a
White House Working Group on Global Change that I chair.
This negotiating position will reflect the extensive discussions that have been
taking place within the U.S. government on environmental issues. As one example of
these discussions, I might cite the Administration's work on emissions trading. If
future restrictions on greenhouse emissions prove necessary, market-based approaches
to implement those restrictions would be far preferable to command-and-control
approaches. One such market-based approach involves a comprehensive system in
which all sources and sinks of all greenhouse gases are treated on a common footing
in terms of an appropriate greenhouse warming potential. Such a measure would
include established scientific knowledge regarding the greenhouse effectiveness of
individual chemicals and their average lifetime in the atmosphere.
Once such a comprehensive approach is adopted, it becomes easier to use
market forces to achieve reductions in greenhouse gas emissions at minimum costs.
This could well encompass bilateral and multilateral arrangements in which a given
country might find it economically attractive to help another country achieve net
global benefits at lower total cost than if each country were to act independently.
This process of emissions trading has been successfully implemented in a number of
situations, and it bears much promise for dealing with emissions of greenhouse gases.
Such innovative approaches are going to be essential to meet the main
challenge of international agreements on climate change: establishing mechanisms
that are both effective and workable. The negotiations leading to a Framework
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Convention and any subsequent protocols will encompass an unprecedented range of
national and international policies, and no country is likely to be coerced into actions
that are not in its long-term interests. But ensuring a stable and predictable
environment is in everyone's interest, and actions that genuinely help to achieve that
end will carry great force.
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