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WMO papers
World leaders' viewpoints
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
CLIMATE
CHANGE
World leaders' viewpoints
WMO No. 748
Secretariat of the World Meteorological Organization
Geneva, Switzerland
1991
Contents
Foreword by Professor G. O. P. Obasi
Secretary-General, WMO
V
Interviews:
His Excellency Fernando Collor de Mello
President of the Federative Republic of Brazil
1
His Excellency François M. Mitterrand
President of the French Republic
11
His Majesty Hussein I
King of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan
15
The Honourable Edward Fenech-Adami
Prime Minister of the Republic of Malta
23
© 1991, World Meteorological Organization
His Excellency Flavio Cotti
ISBN 92-63-10748-3
President of the Swiss Confederation
35
His Excellency Robert Gabriel Mugabe
President of the Republic of Zimbabwe
41
NOTE
The designations employed and the presentation of material in this
publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on
the part of the Secretariat of the World Meteorological Organization
concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its
authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
Foreword
by Professor G. O. P. Obasi
Secretary-General
WMO
The study of climate and
climatic change has always
been one of the primary
responsibilities of the World
Meteorological Organization
and of its predecessor, the
International Meteorological
Organization, founded over a
century ago. Even in the late
1960s and early 1970s WMO
was already particularly con-
cerned about changes to the
world's climate and to the
composition of the atmo-
sphere - now an issue of
ever-increasing importance.
In February 1979, WMO convened the first World
Climate Conference jointly with other organizations of
the United Nations system. In the intervening years we
have witnessed the growing concern about climate and
environmental issues that has led to the establishment of
special bodies such as the WMO/UNEP Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change and also to a whole series of
ministerial meetings culminating in the Second World
Climate Conference (Geneva, 29 October - 7 November
1990). The Ministerial Declaration of the Conference,
adopted by representatives of 137 countries, helps pave
the way for the preparation of a Framework Convention
on Climate Change.
V
CLIMAT
WORLD
ERS
VIEWI
His Excellency
Fernando Collor de Mello
The great interest of the nations of the world in issues
related to environment in general and to the atmosphere and
President of the Federative
climate in particular is well demonstrated by the fact that
many Heads of State and leading diplomats participated
Republic of Brazil
personally in those meetings. Their interventions were well-
considered, clear and thought-provoking. To put on record
some of their views, it was therefore decided to conduct inter-
According to environmen-
views with some of these eminent personalities in connection
talists, Latin America is
with WMO World Meteorological Day, celebrated each year
losing its forests and jungles
on 23 March.
at an alarming rate, some of
The WMO Executive Council had already decided that
the cities are among the most
the theme for World Meteorological Day 1991 should be 'The
polluted, soil erosion affects
atmosphere of the living planet Earth' and this was most
the productive land, and
appropriate to the purpose of the interviews. This booklet
regional seas are replete with
contains the record of these interviews presented in alpha-
sewage, chemical and other
betical order of the names of the countries.
wastes. Is the situation
On behalf of the World Meteorological Organization, I
indeed as ominous as it is
wish to express my gratitude to President Fernando Collor de
presented?
Mello of Brazil, President François Mitterrand of France, His
Majesty King Hussein of Jordan, Prime Minister Edward
Fenech-Adami of Malta, President Flavio Cotti of Switzerland
and President Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe for according the
Latin America nowadays faces a series of environmental
interviews contained in this booklet. WMO is indeed
problems. These are associated, on the one hand, with
honoured by their participation.
mounting pressures on natural resources, and, on the
Thanks are also due to Dr Hessam Taba who, in his
other, with rapid urbanization and the very growth of
capacity as a consultant to the Secretary-General of WMO,
industrial activity. The serious economic crisis that has
assisted in the preparation of these interviews and edited
hit the region since the beginning of the past decade has
this booklet.
had an adverse impact on the environment and on the
quality of life of local populations.
Color
One must bear in mind, however, that Latin
America is not the sole region to suffer from environ-
G. O. P. Obasi
mental problems, which, being to a large extent a con-
Secretary-General
sequence of less than sustainable development models,
manifest themselves in more serious forms in the
developed world.
VI
1
CLIMATE CHANGE
ORLD ADERS VIEWPOINTS
H.E.
A problem of particular importance is the rapid decline of trop-
for Amazonia (INPA) in Manaus. He gave an account of how
ical forests as a result of increased demand for farmland,
the destruction of the tropical forest in Brazil would affect
gathering of firewood, the commercial use of wood and inappro-
climate not only in the region, but all over the globe. Since this
priate settlement policies. Deforestation affects tropospheric
is an extremely important issue, would you like to offer your
chemistry and hence the global climate. In your opinion, how
own personal view?
serious are the consequences of deforestation today in Brazil
and how much damage has been done?
As I have been stressing since the time of the electoral
campaign to the Presidency, one of my Administration's
The most up-to-date data available on the vegetation cover
priorities is to tackle environmental problems by means of
of the Amazonian Region, collected by the Brazilian
a positive approach. In this context, I do recognize the
Instituto de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) (Space Research
importance of protecting climate and the atmosphere. In so
Institute), São Paulo, show that the actual figures for defor-
far as the protection of the great carbon reservoirs - such as
estation areas or rates are much less alarming than those
forests and oceans - is a part of this problem, Brazil is ready
given in certain projections from abroad made available
to offer its contribution in a constructive manner, through
internationally. To begin with, deforestation has indeed
incentives to programmes and projects for the protection of
occurred, but at constant rates, not at exponential ones as
the Amazonian forest. We consider it absolutely indispens-
suggested by some scientists and experts. The total area
able, however, that other countries play their part in this
where deforestation, both recent and traditional, has
process, e.g. by reducing emissions of greenhouse gases of
occurred approaches 394 000 square kilometres (around
fossil-fuel origin derived from their gigantic fleets of cars and
7.8% of the total area of Legal Brazilian Amazonia). The
from their industrial parks.
average deforestation rate for the period 1978-1989 has
been calculated as 21 776 square kilometres (2.2 million
hectares) per year, i.e. approximately four times less than
There is a new administration in Brazil and you yourself, as a
the 80 000 square kilometres per year estimated by the
young President, are seriously preoccupied with problems of
World Resources Institute. The data collected by the INPE
atmospheric pollution, adverse climatic changes and defores-
indicates that total deforestation in Amazonia corresponds
tation. You have already taken some steps within the country
to 254 tons of CO₂ emissions into the atmosphere - or 3.7%
to improve the situation. Could you please outline in some detail
of the total emissions throughout the world.
the measures you have taken?
With the aim of promoting the protection of the Amazonian
During the Bergen Ministerial Conference on Sustainable
forest, we in Brazil are finalizing the overall economic-
Development in the ECE Region (May 1990), the Secretary of
ecological mapping of the region. This programme is based
the Environment of Brazil spoke on your behalf. He mentioned
on the assumption that environmental protection cannot be
the importance of the rainforest and referred to the results of the
dissociated from the promotion of social and economic
study and research work conducted at the Institute of Research
development. It will allow the precise definition of potentials
2
3
CLIMATE
HANGEL V
LD LEADERS
INTS
of the various areas in the region, which is necessary for the
must be taken to promote more just and equitable world-
correct applicability of models of sustainable development in
wide economic relations, without which the reactivation of
the forest. In that programme, it is expected that 20 new
economic activity and economic growth in developing
'extractivist reserves' would be added to the five reserves
countries cannot take place. It is in this sense that we
already existing. Combating of illegal deforestation and
welcome with great interest the new language of co-
burning in the critical period of June to September has been
operation reflected in the recent Declaration of Dublin
made possible by 'Operation Amazonia', an overall effort
(European Communities Council) and the Declaration of
launched in April 1990 and combining sophisticated
Houston (Summit of the Seven).
satellite surveys and monitoring with local checking and
enforcement on the ground. Illegal, indiscriminate taking of
lands in Amazonia is being forcefully opposed by all means
All activities necessary to maintain a clean atmosphere, to
permitted by law, including even the co-operation of the
prevent adverse climatic change, to control deforestation, to
avoid undesirable environmental impacts on agriculture, in brief
Armed Forces.
A comprehensive programme of environmental edu-
to meet the very goal of sustainable development, require ex-
cation is being launched at the same time, with a view to
penditure. In your opinion how can the necessary financial
broadening and deepening perceptive motivation of the
resources be made available to developing countries in order to
younger generation with respect to the importance of envir-
broaden their access to environmentally clean technologies?
onmental protection in conjunction with the promotion of
sustainable development.
The channelling of additional financial resources, under
concessional conditions, and the right of access, on preferen-
tial terms, to the new, 'clean' technologies, those that protect
Since you have already curbed some of the projects which were
and help recover the environment, are two fundamental
not environmentally sound, what sort of alternatives do you
issues. They are intimately related to the promotion of
have in mind and what sort of assistance would you require?
sustainable development in developing countries.
New and additional credits and technologies are neces-
It is not easy to implement development-project options that
sary not only for improving the quality of the environment
are clearly directed to a 'sustainable' dimension. These
in each country, but also in terms of providing the means of
options often require considerably larger investments, longer
implementing whatever new international obligations are
planning, a solid effort towards motivating local communi-
agreed upon through international negotiations. In fact,
ties, and onerous fiscal and supervisory operations. They
every agreement should include specific arrangements for
also require special education and training of personnel,
the transfer of additional resources to developing countries.
and access to technologies and equipment which are often
Additional financing for domestic environmental plan-
too expensive and not available in the domestic market. It
ning could be channelled by means of more bilateral grants
will be absolutely necessary to intensify international co-
or concessions as well as by a new financing unit within the
operation in the environmental area. Equally essential, steps
World Bank (we note that the proposed establishment of a
4
5
CLIMA CHANG WORLD LEADERS VIEWPOINTS
ERNANDO COLLOR deMele
'Global Environmental Facility' within the purview of the IBRD
distribution of emissions within the national boundaries so that
is under consideration by its Development Committee).
the most productive and desirable activities are favoured? Do
Additional resources are also needed if we are to face positively
you not agree that these problems require solutions prior to the
the environmental components embedded in most develop-
setting up of regulations and legislation which would be diffi-
ment and infrastructure projects.
cult for developing nations to respect?
One should never separate the question of implementing
There is little doubt that the reduction of the emission of green-
environmental protection measures in developing countries
house gases and the consequent adverse climate change require
from that of promoting social and economic development.
a new policy in the use of fossil fuels, wider use of alternative
The present situation in our countries requires a special and
energy, an effective energy conservation programme, the curbing
differential treatment, the mobilization of additional
of deforestation in tropical regions and the exploitation of
resources and access to new technologies. These are sine qua
natural resources on a sustainable basis. In this context, you
non conditions if we are able gradually to adapt productive
may wish to explain the present situation in Brazil as regards
activities to environmentally more demanding standards.
the use of gazohol and ethanol or any other energy alternatives
The measures of control eventually to be adopted through
you have developed.
new international agreements on the protection of the envi-
ronment must not take the form of an inequitable freeze of
Greenhouse gas emissions derived from fossil fuel combus-
present levels of quality of life in the various countries.
tion are relatively small in Brazil. The highly industrialized
The setting of ceilings for greenhouse gas emissions
countries, being most responsible for that kind of emission,
and the identification of 'emitting' activities to be selectively
must take the lead in making commitments aiming at
controlled, under more or less comprehensive standards, in
reducing these emissions. As for the specific question
accordance with their positive impact on economic develop-
concerning the use of alcohol as an alternative to other fuels,
ment, should be among those ideas to be contemplated in
let me stress that Brazil has developed an autonomous and
the forthcoming negotiating process that will lead to a
quite efficient technology in this field. As you know, a
framework convention on climate.
substantial part of the Brazilian car fleet is alcohol-run, thus
contributing significantly to the reduction of CO2 emissions.
In your opinion, what are the most urgent measures required to
prevent Latin America from becoming the victim of a profound
As pointed out by the Brazilian delegation to the White House
socio-environmental crisis?
Conference on Science and Economics Research Related to
Global Change (April 1990), the following questions deserve
As already indicated, it seems to me that those elements
particular attention: What activities, in the developing coun-
absolutely necessary for a programme that would prevent
tries, have to be curtailed for environmental purposes that do
the double crisis - socio-economic and environmental - in
not imply a serious social cost? Is it possible to allow a better
Latin America and the Caribbean must include the return of
6
7
(MATE CHA WORLD-LEADERS VIEWPOINTS
FERNAND
economic activity to the region; the re-negotiation, in more
their own right, major causes for the degradation of
equitable terms, of the regional external debt; and the chan-
the environment. UNCED should furthermore consolidate
nelling of financial and technological resources on a prefer-
mechanisms to ensure differential and preferential
ential basis. Within the next year, the Regional Action Plan
treatment for developing countries in the field of legal
for the Environment in Latin America and the Caribbean,
obligations related to the environment, as well as to permit
now under preparation, should be adopted. As an outcome
these countries, under more favourable conditions, access
of governmental negotiations, the Action Plan is expected to
to financial resources and technologies indispensable for
establish priorities for co-operative action within the regional
the implementation of sustainable development models.
context. It should inter alia also provide the basis for diver-
In addition, the climax of the 1992 Conference
sifying channels and mechanisms responsible for receiving
should be the adoption of various international legal
foreign resources, originating from both multilateral and
instruments for the protection of the environment. Finally,
bilateral initiatives, for programmes directed to the protec-
it should set an agenda for sustainable development in the
tion of the environment in the area.
next century.
Brazil will host the 1992 United Nations Conference on
Environment and Development (UNCED). What do you feel
should be the main outcome of the Conference?
Owing to its dimension and importance, the United
Nations Conference on Environment and Development, to
be held in Brazil in 1992, will undoubtedly become one of
the great diplomatic events in the history of the United
Nations. The fundamental goal of the Conference will be to
include, definitively, environmental considerations in the
planning and promotion of social and economic develop-
ment, emphasis being given to the importance of concepts
of sustainable, environmentally rational development.
UNCED should play a fundamental role in the
consolidation of principles which should guide economic
activity of the different societies according to a revised
model of development. For that reason, it should create
mechanisms that permit the sharing, on a global scale, of
the benefits of economic development - the assumption
being that underdevelopment and poverty constitute, in
9
8
His Excellency
François M. Mitterrand
President
of the French Republic
The heads of 24 governments
from all the continents met
on 10 and 11 March 1989 in
The Hague (Netherlands) at
the Summit on the Protection
of the Global Atmosphere,
convened by three countries,
including France. The fact
that you appeared personally
demonstrates the importance
you attach to this problem.
Would you like to expand on
this topic?
France attaches the highest importance to protection of the
global atmosphere, whether in order to preserve the
stratospheric ozone layer or to limit emissions of toxic as
well as greenhouse gases. It was for this reason that my
country took the initiative of making such an appeal,
together with Norway and the Netherlands. Actually, I
believe that a supra-national body must be created which
will alone be able to monitor effectively compliance with
the international regulations to be decreed for this purpose.
In your address at The Hague you inferred that, even if
uncertainties still remained from the scientific point of view,
the nature of the problem was such that it required immediate
11
CLIMATE CHANGE: WORLD LEADERS' VIEWPOINTS
H.E. FRANÇOIS MITTERRAND
international action. Many nations still believe that
developing countries can take several forms, such as the
protection of the environment and ecosystem is an expensive
creation of international bodies devoted to the solution of
undertaking. Do you believe that observational and research
problems specifically affecting the developing countries.
aspects of the monitoring and protection of the global
France thus proposed the creation of the Sahara and
atmosphere should receive priority?
Sahel Observatory, which has started its work to control
desertification. We must also not forget the various
It was, of course, the scientists who first warned all the
economic forms of aid, including loans or gifts, to the
citizens and leaders of the various countries about
developing countries which are the most affected by
the urgency of ensuring the global protection of the
climate changes.
environment. France therefore attaches the highest
importance to the development of research and to the
proper dissemination of observations. It was, in fact, for
Do you feel that the nations of the world are ready to con-
this reason that, in June 1989, I requested the creation of a
template joint action to combat and mitigate the threat to the
World Observatory of the Planet and that, at the last
world from the greenhouse effect?
summit in Houston, I proposed, on behalf of France, the
creation of a centre for disseminating satellite data
I note that all nations of the world have become aware of
concerning environmental protection. Nevertheless, I
the threat of the greenhouse effect to climate evolution.
consider that our action should not be limited to research
Obviously, we are not yet all in agreement on how the
aspects and that it is a matter of urgency to act even if all
necessary action is to be undertaken. However, I feel that
of the scientific uncertainties have not yet been removed.
an increasing number of countries are prepared to make
If our countries do not adopt concrete measures to limit
appropriate efforts by making known the limits of carbon
emissions of harmful gases, the resultant delay will have
dioxide emissions which they intend to respect. This
considerable economic repercussions in the future.
process will still take a long time, but I think that wisdom
will prevail.
The signatories of the Hague Declaration acknowledged that
the industrialized nations had a special responsibility to assist
the developing countries, which might be the ones most seriously
affected by changes in the Earth's climate and environment.
What form do you thinksuch assistance could take?
Clearly, the more prosperous nations have special obli-
gations toward the developing countries, particularly
since it is our countries which still pollute the atmosphere
most. The assistance which we should give to the
12
13
His Majesty
Hussein I
King of the
Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan
The fact that you personally
attended the Hague Summit
demonstrates your great
interest in and profound
concern regarding problems
of climate change and pre-
servation of the environ-
ment. You stated that the
quality of life was being
threatened by the growing
dangers to the Earth's
atmosphere. Do you wish to
highlight some of these
dangers?
The dangers to the Earth's atmosphere are manifold.
Some of them may seem area-specific, such as defor-
estation, desertification, and depletion of freshwater
resources, which afflict Jordan and the Middle East in
general, or acid rain and pollution in more highly
industrialized regions; but these phenomena are global in
their effect, just as much as the greenhouse effect or the
depletion of the ozone layer. This is because the ecosystem
is so finely balanced that a disruption in any part of it
would throw the system out of balance. Hence the
importance of the Hague Summit of March 1989, because
it highlighted the global nature of the challenge and the
need for a co-ordinated and comprehensive world effort
to overcome it.
15
Global climate change, air, sea- and freshwater pollution,
believe that the United Nations is the body best qualified
acid rain, hazardous substances, deforestation and energy
to deal with this momentous task since it already has a
policies are among the most important problems facing
specialized agency for the purpose, and particularly in
mankind. During recent years, numerous international
view of its revitalized role. However, there is certainly a
meetings at all scientific and political levels have been held to
need to strengthen the United Nations Environment
discuss these issues and preparations are in progress for
Programme, as well as all other United Nations bodies, to
holding the United Nations Conference on Environment in
enable them to cope better with the challenges that face
Brazil in 1992. Do you believe that, by 1992, political and
humanity.
financial means will be available to tackle these problems?
Concerning funds for the environment protection
programmes, the challenge lies in interlinking the goals
I believe that the financial and technological means to
of progress and preservation. Therefore, serious consid-
tackle these problems are available, but the measures
eration must be given to the means that would best
necessary for protecting the environment have often come
achieve this end. It may be more efficient to increase
into conflict with the short-term needs of development, or
co-operation between the United Nations Environment
with the profit motive, which also cannot be ignored. It is
Programme and its sister programme, the UNDP.
the duty of political decision-makers to draw up and
The same applies to the legal machinery. However,
implement policies that give incentives to the private as
on this topic, I would like to stress that the success of the
well as public sectors to pursue the dual objective of
global effort to protect the environment depends on
progress and preservation with equal emphasis.
international co-operation. Therefore, the principles,
rules, criteria, and standards must be applicable and
pertinent to both developing and developed nations, and
On many occasions, it has been suggested that the
not favour one group's interests over those of the other.
implementation of an efficient environmental protection
programme requires three quite distinct measures: (a)
establishment of an international authority or strengthening
The greenhouse effect, attributed to man-made emissions of
of existing authorities under the aegis of the United Nations
carbon dioxide, methane and chlorofluorocarbons, is a
to supervise the preservation of the environment; (b)
particularly world-wide problem as regards both cause and
establishment of an international funding source to assist
impact. The industrialized nations have begun the painful
developing nations in setting up environmental protection
process of discovering past mistakes and the developing
projects; and (c) setting up of a comprehensive environmental
countries want compensation for reducing the emissions they
legal machinery with its own principles, rules, criteria and
produce. The WMO/UNEP Intergovernmental Panel on
standards. You may wish to offer your own views on these.
Climate Change (IPCC) has suggested that there are
sufficient grounds to act on global warming. Do you believe
The global nature of the challenge requires a co-
that a global agreement could be reached, in the next few
ordinated and comprehensive effort to tackle it, and I
years, to reduce the emission of the greenhouse gases?
16
17
conservation programmes, but this should be done in a way
I see no alternative to global co-operation to solve the
that enhances their development programmes, not place an
problem. The technology exists to provide substitutes for
additional burden on their already stretched resources. This
activities causing harmful emissions and certainly the
would make economic planning more difficult, but, in the
financial resources are there. The problem lies in assessing
long run, it is the only way.
correctly each country's needs and capability, and in
allocating each country's share of the effort. The
developing countries are already overburdened by their
The developing nations have an urgent need for access to, and
development needs and they need assistance, both
actual transfer of, up-to-date environmental protection
financially and technically, to contribute to such a
technology. In your view, how can this be achieved at
programme.
little or по cost and without unduly impeding economic
development?
Governments are deeply concerned over the condition of
It is important to stress that technology transfer, in this
the world's ecosystem, food supply and human health.
situation in particular, is not a hand-out from the more
Developing nations, however, do not as yet have the means
advanced countries, but an investment on their part in a
to integrate economic development and environmental
better future for all mankind. It is a long-term investment
preservation. Some donors, funding institutions and devel-
whose rewards may not be appreciated fully for some
opment banks have shown interest in providing financial
years to come. However, if this principle were accepted,
assistance if the ethics of sustainable development are
the mechanism of the transfer would not present an
incorporated in the assistance programme. Do you believe
insurmountable obstacle.
that this approach will limit the flexibility of the develop-
ing countries in the trade-off between environment and
development consideration?
Since all climate-related social issues are interrelated and call
for international action, they require the participation of the
Developing nations face a complexity of problems related to
developing nations. Unless developing countries have a pool
development. These include providing food, employment,
of specialists trained in all aspects of climate change and
housing, education, and health services to an ever-
environmental preservation, they cannot participate
increasing population. In addition, some have to cope with
effectively in the implementation of such programmes. In
a debilitating debt problem, which handicaps their growth.
your opinion, what action could be taken to speed up the
In certain regions, such as the Middle East, the absence of
process of training and to encourage participation at a
peace also hinders socio-economic progress. The preservation
national or international level?
of the environment has to compete with the vital issues of
survival for a place on any developing country's national
The problem is a real one, and it is compounded by the fact
agenda. Therefore, it becomes essential to provide devel-
that the resources of developing countries are overstretched to
oping countries with incentives and assistance to pursue
19
18
CLIMATE CHANGE: WORLD LEADERS' VIEWPOINTS
HUSSEIN.
meet basic bread-and-butter issues. The realization that
I have made reference to the problems of salination of
conservation of the environment is not an esoteric interest is
the already scarce water resources, earth erosion and
comparatively new, even in developed nations. This is why
desertification. But these problems have to be taken in a
conservation has not received the order of priority that it
regional context since their solution, which is crucial to
deserves. Hence, the training of specialists at higher levels of
our development and economic planning, is made more
education, though an important step, would not be sufficient.
difficult by the political realities which make regional co-
It would not be sufficient to allocate a share of the scholar-
operation difficult in the absence of peace.
ships and academic exchange programmes to conservation-
Of course all these problems would be accentuated
related disciplines; equally important is the creation of
all the more by global warming, which would add to the
awareness at grass-roots level of the importance of con-
causes of instability in the region. The problem would thus
servation, and to this end we also need help from countries
feed on itself and snowball out of control.
with longer experience in the field.
Twenty years after the Stockholm Conference, the 1992 United
Nations Conference to be held in Brazil will provide an
important opportunity for the international community to
take stock and assess the progress achieved in the field
of protection of the atmosphere and environmental preservation.
It is of utmost importance that developing nations make every
effort to take part in this important gathering. What would be
your personal wishes as regards the outcome of the Conference?
The purpose of this meeting is to confront a problem that
faces all humanity, and it is of the utmost importance that
all nations participate fully. I would like to see the conference
address with equal emphasis the concerns of developed and
developing countries, in a spirit of co-operation, which would
be a very good precedent of joint world action against a
common danger.
Could you please describe some of the climatic problems of
particular concern to the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan in the
context of the scenario of a probable global warming?
20
21
The Honourable
Edward Fenech-Adami
Prime Minister of the
Republic of Malta
In 1988 the Government of
Malta took the initiative to
advance international action
on the issue of global climate
change when it prepared a
resolution for consideration
by the United Nations
General Assembly entitled
Protection of the global
climate for present and future
generations of mankind'.
What prompted your Govern-
ment to take such initiative?
In August 1988, Professor David Attard, who teaches
international law at the University of Malta, asked to see
me on a matter which he felt was of international
importance. At the meeting, Professor Attard stressed the
need for co-operation with respect to the protection of the
global climate. He explained that the world's climate was
being threatened by certain human activities. There was
a great risk that these activities could lead to a global
warming, the magnitude of which - over such a short
time scale - had never been witnessed in the history of
civilized man.
1
In his view, whilst serious work was being under-
-
taken by a number of scientific organizations, there was
little co-ordination of such effort. Given the magnitude of
23
CLIMATE change: WORLDI DERS VIEWPOINTS
The
ONOURAB
the problem and the limited resources available, it was
issue, whilst the latter had the policy-making expertise in
important that there should be less overlapping and more
dealing with global environmental problems. I was of the
co-ordination. Furthermore, Professor Attard stressed the
opinion that the support of WMO and UNEP was crucial if
need to have the problem considered at the highest
our initiative was to succeed. I shall never forget the
political level - the United Nations General Assembly.
vigorous support we received from Professor G. O. P. Obasi
In view of the serious threat which climate change
and Dr M. K. Tolba, both of whom visited us in Malta and
presented, I felt that my Government should take urgent
assisted us in the formulation of our policy.
action. I discussed the issue with the then Minister of
In fact, we feel that our initiative on climate should
Foreign Affairs, Dr V. Tabone, who immediately agreed
be considered as a tribute to all those persons, agencies
on the necessity for action at the United Nations. On
and organizations that had undertaken the necessary
9 September 1988, my Government requested that the
work and research to ascertain that our fears were based
issue of climate change be put on the agenda of the 43rd
on sound scientific evidence.
session of the General Assembly. Our request was accepted
In my view, there can be no effective policy-
and furthermore a Plenary Meeting of the Assembly was
making in the area of environmental pollution unless
convened to examine the question.
the decision-maker is presented with reliable scientific
In short, Malta's initiative on climate was aimed at
evidence. It is therefore vital in developing our response
creating a global response to climate change. Clearly,
strategies to climate change that we continue to support
whether developed or developing, each State has an
and strengthen the research programmes on climate.
interest in the global climate. Its protection is vital to life
On the other hand, we must be careful not to allow
on Earth. We must strive to ensure that future generations
any scientific uncertainty to hinder our responses in
do not inherit a planet which cannot sustain life.
countering climate change. Given the seriousness and
traumatic effects of climate change, mankind cannot and
should not await absolute scientific consensus before
I assume that before or when you submitted the draft
taking action, for by then it may be too late. We simply
resolution, you solicited support from some agencies or
cannot afford to procrastinate. The scientist and the
organizations. Which organizations did you contact and
policy-maker must work hand in hand to provide a
what were their reactions?
survival strategy for our planet. In this respect the co-
operation between UNEP and WMO provides an excellent
Yes, we did sound a number of organizations and
example.
personalities prior to raising the question of climate
change at the United Nations. In fact, at the formative
stages of our initiative, I instructed our Foreign Office to
Do you believe that the resolution as adopted by the United
seek the advice of the relevant international organ-
Nations meets the expectations of the Government of Malta
izations, in particular WMO and UNEP. I felt that the
and others who supported it? What are the salient points of
former could offer guidance on the scientific aspects of the
the resolution?
24
25
LIMATE CHANGE: WORLD LEADERS' VIEWPOINTS
THE (ONOURABLE ED
I believe that the resolution does meet to a very large extent
was a need for a climate convention. We left the General
the expectations of the Maltese Government and the 55
Assembly determined to muster international support
States that co-sponsored it. The fact that it was unanimously
for the conclusion of a climate convention. In the
adopted by the United Nations General Assembly reflects
months that followed, it became clear that Malta's
the general support which our initiative enjoyed.
position was receiving widespread support, as was
Briefly, the resolution sets out the constitutive
confirmed in Resolution 44/207 on climate, which
elements of a global strategy to ensure the effective
emerged from the 44th session of the United Nations
protection of our global climate. These elements can be
General Assembly. In this resolution, the international
divided into three broad categories: (a) institutional, (b)
community is urged to begin preparations for nego-
scientific, and (c) legal.
tiations on a framework convention on climate, taking
The UN resolution clearly identifies the Inter-
into account the work of the Intergovernmental Panel
governmental Panel on Climate Change as the body
on Climate Change.
through which WMO and UNEP should ensure that the
I would like to conclude my answer by raising what
necessary action is taken. I am glad to note that the panel
I consider to be a fundamental issue. If the international
has already prepared an authoritative report on climate
community is to succeed in coping with global envir-
change. The scientific and socio-economic aspect of
onmental problems, new rules of international law have
climate change is another area which the resolution
to be formulated. It is our belief that the current state of
required the panel to consider. The creation of a legal
international law is not mature enough to enable us to
framework within which mankind's activities to protect
tackle these problems effectively. We live today in a
the climate can be regulated was another goal set out by
situation where a small group of States can tamper with
the resolution.
the global environmental equilibrium at the expense of
Clearly, we would have liked some of its provisions to
the international community. In this respect, I feel it is
be worded in a stronger tone. In fact, events over recent
noteworthy that Malta has introduced the concept of the
months - as I shall explain - have proved us right.
common concern of mankind. And climate change is a
Nevertheless, given the uniqueness of our initiative and its
common concern of mankind.
sensitive nature, we felt that prudence and caution in our
This concept, which has been confirmed by the
demands were necessary to ensure consensus and success.
General Assembly in Resolution 43/53, should develop into
If you look at Resolution 43/53, paragraph 10 (e)
a principle allowing the international community to act on
reads 'Elements for inclusion in a possible future
matters which are of common interest. In the case of
international convention on climate'. The original
climate, the international community would be entitled to
Maltese draft used the word 'possible' to qualify
concern itself with activities which cause climate change,
'elements' and not 'convention'. In our negotiations in
even when such activities occur within a State's boundaries.
the Second Committee of the General Assembly, it
The principle of domestic jurisdiction can no longer be
became clear - at least in October/November 1988 -
allowed to be used as a defence when global environmental
that there was no general agreement over whether there
well-being is at stake.
26
27
CLIMATE CHANGE: WORLD LEADERS' VIEWPOINTS
HE HONOU ARD FENEC H-Adami
In conjunction with the draft resolution submitted by the
which will require concrete measures to be taken in two
Government of Malta, the Maltese Government had also
particular areas:
proposed the need for an 'international convention on
Rational forestry management;
climate' which would provide a legal and institutional
and
framework to deal with climate change and global warming.
Energy efficiency.
Could you please expand on this?
It is our view that there exists sufficient support for
As I pointed out in my last answer, my Government feels
the adoption of these protocols. Clearly, their observance
that there should be an international convention on
would produce results that are beneficial to the global
climate. We feel that the conclusion of such a treaty would
climate. Furthermore, measures in the areas I have just
signal to the world community the existence of a firm
mentioned would also produce other benefits such as
political will to counter the problem of climate change. It
economic savings.
should provide a global framework within which national,
regional and international measures to protect the climate
can be developed, harmonized and co-ordinated.
In your address on the occasion of the Meeting of Resident
The instrument should be primarily a framework
Representatives of the United Nations Development
convention enumerating the general principles and
Programme (Malta, March 1989) you said that the need to
providing for the development of a number of protocols
protect the global environment was not incompatible with the
which could contain concrete measures. In this respect
need to develop and improve the human condition. Could you
the Vienna Convention on the Ozone Layer is a useful
please expand on this?
model. It is a framework treaty which deals with a global
environmental problem - the protection of the ozone
If an environmental protection strategy is to be effective
layer.
and successful it has to take into account the economic
One must however also realize that the question of
needs and development realities of the international
climate change is a much more complicated and intricate
community. Increasingly, even in a very small State such
issue. It is all-embracing, affecting every aspect of human
as ours, decision-makers have to act bearing in mind the
life. Furthermore, those human activities which produce
need to protect the environment and the urge to develop
climate change are very numerous.
and grow. In my view one has to achieve a balance
We also have to bear in mind that we have a tem-
between these two goals. Clearly, there are cases where
poral problem. Mankind simply does not have the time to
development causes environmental problems. On the
await the negotiation and conclusion of a framework
other hand, we have to ask: Can there be 'true' develop-
convention without any agreement on concrete measures.
ment, if there is widespread degradation?
Malta is therefore proposing that, coupled with the
The solution to this dilemma is often a complicated,
conclusion of a climate convention, the international
multidimensional and intricate one. Those countries
community should strive to adopt at least two protocols
which have grown and developed cannot expect others
28
29
CLIMATE CHANGE: WORLD LEADERS' VIEWPOINTS
THE HONOURABLE EDWARD FENECH-ADAMI
suddenly to stultify their development and growth.
chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) has serious developmental
Clearly, all States must act responsibly. Underdevelop-
consequences. CFCs play an important part in our
ment is no excuse for a State to abuse the environment.
economic growth. We cannot expect developing States -
Nevertheless, the developed States have a responsibility
which are aspiring to the same development as
to ensure that the developing States are allowed to
industrialized States and which have for a number of
grow and at the same time meet their environmental
years been gearing up to exploit CFCs - suddenly to
obligations. This responsibility, it seems to me, stems from
abandon the economic interests of their peoples. I fully
two factors:
understand the position of China and India on this
The developed States have in many cases grown
matter.
at the expense of the environment. Their
I feel that the solution of the London Conference
development has produced adverse environ-
attempts to create a reasonable and realistic balance
mental effects which the international com-
between economic growth and environmental protection.
munity is still facing today. This degradation
It attempts to tighten controls on CFCs on a global basis.
occurred when some members of the inter-
It envisages the developed States assisting developing
national community were not even States. It
States to adopt and adapt to the new technologies that
was not unknown for States to undertake
provide CFC alternatives. This assistance is coupled with
their hazardous activities in distant colonial
the setting up of a 240 million US dollar fund to finance
territories. The development of the nuclear States
this transfer of technology.
is littered with such occurrences;
I believe that the London solution provides a unique
model for balancing development and environmental
The developed States have the resources and the
protection. It will be useful in our fight to protect the
technological capabilities to develop environ-
global climate. It will demonstrate that it is possible to
mentally benign technologies. There should be
tackle global environmental problems even if there are
channels for the transfer of these technologies,
developmental consequences.
and for the funding of the establishment and
Clearly, with respect to climate, the financial
application of these technologies in developing
assistance will have to be of a greater magnitude. That is
States.
why Malta has advocated the establishment of a World
Climate Fund. The London Conference demonstrates that
The results of the recent London Ozone Layer
such a fund is a realistic goal. It strengthens our resolve.
Conference demonstrate the need to recognize devel-
Finally, I should like to point out that Malta
opmental concerns if global environmental strategies
has prohibited the use in aerosol sprays of all ozone-
are to succeed. The ozone layer surrounds us all -
damaging chemical compounds after 31 December 1990.
developed, developing, rich, poor, small and great. It
After this date no aerosol spray product containing such
protects the some five billion inhabitants of the Earth
compounds will be allowed to be manufactured, imported
from possible destruction. The need to phase out
or exported.
30
31
CLIMATE CHANGE: WORLD LEADERS' VIEWPOINTS
THE HONOURABLE EDWARD FENECH-ADAMI
On several occasions you have referred to the possible estab-
Unfortunately, there are huge areas of our globe where
lishment of a Euro-Mediterranean Centre to deal with
not enough attention is given to their environmental
regional aspects of environmental problems. Would you give a
protection. The high seas and superjacent airspace are two
few examples of problems which could be dealt with by such
such areas. Because they are extra-territorial, their
a centre?
protection is left largely unregulated. The little regulation
that exists is ineffective.
Malta has proposed the establishment of a Euro-
It is for these reasons that Malta has recommended
Mediterranean Centre to deal with the problems of
to the General Assembly that a group of eminent persons
climate change. The main goal of this centre would be to
should be established to examine the problem. Vast
examine the ramifications of climate change on a
expanses of extra-territorial space belong to the 'common
regional basis. The Euro-Mediterranean region is
heritage of mankind'. No State or States should be allowed
particularly suited for such an exercise. It surrounds a
to abuse them.
semi-enclosed sea bordered by developed and developing
littoral States facing each other. Climate change - with
possible consequences such as atmospheric warming
We have been talking about global responses to climate-
and sea-level rise - could have catastrophic effects on
change issues as well as measures that might be undertaken
the region.
to deal with environmental matters on a regional scale. Could
We hope that such a centre would provide solutions
you please enumerate some of the climatic and environmental
with applications not just in this one particular region but
issues of particular importance to Malta?
also in other parts of the globe. It is imperative, if it is to
succeed, that a global approach to combat climate change
The very temperament of our people is a reflection of our
should include the development of regional approaches to
climate, which has influenced our lives. Atmospheric
the problem.
warming, rainfall deficiency and sea-level rise will
dramatically affect our small island and life thereon.
Water resources and agriculture are two important
Another area of global environmental concern to which
resources that are already strained. We already spend 30
you have been drawing attention recently relates to the
per cent of our energy bill transforming sea-water into
environmental protection of 'extra-territorial space'. Could
drinking water. Tourism, which is one of the island's major
you please expand on this?
foreign-currency earners employing thousands, would
suffer if the heat became intolerable. Already we find that
My Government is concerned that the current environ-
warm summers in the north of Europe (our main market)
mental debate centres mainly on controlling harmful
affect the number of incoming tourists.
activities occurring in areas that fall under national
Another major environmental problem is land use.
jurisdiction. This is understandable, as international
Our small island has to cope with the development
control is largely based on the will of sovereign States.
requirements of a dense population.
32
33
CLIMATE CHANGE WORLD LEADERS' VIEWPOINTS
His Excellency
Flavio Cotti
Would you like to send a message to the nations of the
President of the
world on the occasion of the WMO World Meteorological
Day 1991, the theme of which is 'The atmosphere of the
Swiss Confederation
living planet Earth'?
The changing composition of the atmosphere risks
The Second World Climate
breaking irreparably the delicate and intricate elasticity
Conference, which was held
of the Earth's environment. At this rate the very air our
in Geneva from 29 October to
children will breathe will choke rather than replenish
7 November 1990, was a re-
their lungs. Urgent action to protect the planet's
sounding success. You chaired
atmosphere is needed. We procrastinate at our peril.
the Ministerial Session of the
Conference and are therefore
particularly well placed to
comment on the deliberations
and interventions of the par-
ticipants. Could you please
start by giving your personal
impressions of the Session?
I believe the Ministerial Session was a landmark in many
regards. First of all, it was the first time that so many
nations of the world (137), some of which were rep-
resented at the highest political level, participated in a
conference on climate. Second, the Ministerial Declaration
issued at the close of the Session recognized the need to
transfer to developing countries additional financial
resources and environmentally sound technologies on
a fair and most favourable basis. Third, it recognized
precaution as the principle that should underlie any
action dealing with climate change. Finally, it clearly
showed the readiness of the most industrialized coun-
tries to take a first step in stabilizing or reducing their
greenhouse-gas emissions.
35
34
WORLD VIEWPOIN
FLAVIO: Corn
I was extremely disappointed, however, at the failure
States and low-lying coastal arid and semi-arid areas. Do you
of the industrialized world to reach a consensus on the
have the impression that the developing nations are very
stabilization of CO₂ emissions, which I consider to be an
much concerned about these issues?
absolutely indispensable first step.
Developing nations are certainly aware that they will be
particularly affected by global warming and the result-
Many delegations from the developing countries attended the
ing changes in climate, although it is clear that the
World Climate Conference and participated in the Ministerial
alleviation of poverty and economic development con-
Session. What comments can you make on the participation
tinue to be their primary and immediate concerns. As
and the interventions of the developing nations on climate-
mentioned above, the less industrialized low-lying coastal
change issues?
States and islands, such as those found in the South
Pacific and Indian Oceans, are expected to be among the
The fact that most of the developing countries were rep-
most severely affected by the effects of global warming.
resented at the Conference is a very encouraging sign. The
This group expressed its special concerns very clearly and
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change made
forcefully at the Second World Climate Conference, and
considerable efforts in this direction and I am convinced
will no doubt take a very active part in the negotiations of
that their large participation in the Ministerial Session
an international convention on climate change.
was the fruit of these efforts.
I was most impressed with the determination with
which delegations of low-lying coastal and island States
The Ministerial Declaration also makes reference to the need
voiced their deep concern and criticized the Ministerial
for co-operation between advanced and developing nations in
Declaration for failing to take into account their special
order to address climate-change issues without hindering
situation. Although most of these States produce hardly
national development objectives of the latter. In your opinion,
any greenhouse gases, they will probably be the first hit
what should the main elements be for such co-operation?
by any sea-level rise induced by global warming. Their
position is to remind us that, while the global community
An important area of co-operation is in the scientific
may be facing a common threat, the political reality is
domain, as was rightly emphasized in the scientific and
that individual nations face threats of quite distinct scales
technical deliberations at the Conference. At the moment,
and gravity.
many developing countries must merely accept the verdict
of a scientific community of which they do not form part.
Besides, there is a need for financial and technical co-
In the Ministerial Declaration, it is mentioned that the
operation, in order to allow the developing countries to
potential impact of climate change could threaten the
take measures to prevent climate change. It is also
environment and consequently social and economic develop-
necessary to enhance co-operation aimed at controlling
ment in general, and even jeopardize survival in some island
population growth in these countries.
36
37
H.E. FLAVIO COTTI
CLIMATE CHANGE: WORLD LEADERS' VIEWPOINTS
In recognizing the need to intensify research on the social and
concentrations is technology transfer. Could you please
economic implications of climate change, the Ministerial
indicate some of the steps taken by the Swiss Government in
Declaration acknowledged the need for the full participation
this direction?
of the developing countries in these efforts. How, in your
view, can the developing nations take part in such activities?
At the request of Parliament and in order to mark the
700th Anniversary of the Swiss Confederation, the
These activities should now be conducted within the
Swiss Government has submitted to Parliament a credit
framework of the negotiating process for an international
proposal to the amount of 700 million Swiss Francs to
convention on climate change, as well as in the context of
assist developing countries in solving their external debt
the continuing work of the IPCC. Every effort, financial or
problem and in taking measures to protect their
otherwise, will be made to promote the widest possible
environment. This credit will also provide for technical
participation by the developing countries in this process.
assistance projects.
The Ministerial Session of the Conference noted the specific
The Ministerial Declaration invites the Eleventh Congress of
difficulties of some developing countries whose economies are
the World Meteorological Organization (Geneva, 1991) to
highly dependent on fossil-fuel production and exportation.
formulate, in collaboration with other UN Agencies, plans
In order to meet the incremental costs of taking the necessary
for the effective co-ordination of climate-change, research and
measures to address climate-change issues, these countries
monitoring programme activities. Do you believe that the
need external assistance. In what way do you think such
nations of the world, in particular the more developed
countries, are willing to give their full support to the
assistance could be provided?
international agencies and provide them with adequate
As has been pointed out in many conference statements
funds to pursue these aims?
and declarations to date, the consequences of a global
warming will affect economies and every aspect of society.
A special fund has been created by the World
It is clear, therefore, that all nations will need increasingly
Meteorological Organization for this very purpose. The
to pursue their economic development on an ecologi-
United States and Canada have already pledged
cally sustainable basis. I am convinced that this can be
important contributions to this fund (US $500 000 and
achieved, in the interest of all nations, through large-
CAN $1 million respectively). Other countries, including
scale international efforts and intensified international
Switzerland, are in the process of assessing their
co-operation and solidarity.
contributions to this fund.
One of the most effective ways of helping the developing
Would you care to describe in a few words the position of the
countries to participate in the stabilization of greenhouse gas
Swiss Government regarding the United Nations Conference
39
38
EADERS'
VIEWPO
His Excellency
Robert Gabriel Mugabe
on Environment and Development (UNCED) scheduled to be
held in 1992 in Brazil?
President of the Republic of
Like other governments, the Swiss Government is now in
Zimbabwe
the process of preparing its position in view of the 1992
Conference. What is already clear now is that one of its
objectives, i.e. linking the questions of environment and of
In view of the current
development, has already been achieved, as is illustrated
environmental problems
in the Ministerial Declaration of the Second World Climate
facing developing countries,
Conference. We expect the 1992 Conference, like its
whose national product
forerunner in 1972 at Stockholm, to be a milestone in the
depends upon agriculture,
development of human societies, in their relationship both
forestry, mining and energy
with nature and between north and south, east and west.
production, we are warned
To this end, we expect the Conference to provide a
that continued exploitation
major impulse for intensified co-operation and solidarity
of these resources will result
among all nations, in particular between north and
in further degradation of the
south, and renewed solidarity between mankind and
environment unless a policy
his environment. We expect, in particular, that concrete
of sustainable development is
results will be achieved in 1992 in the areas of climate
adopted. As Head of State of
change, biodiversity, and protection of coastal waters,
a developing country, how do
through the signing of legally binding instruments and
you view this issue?
through clear commitments from all nations.
Naturally it is an issue that I regard as being of
paramount importance. The problem is to achieve a
balance between the socio-economic development and
self-sufficiency that we in the developing world strive for
but which depends largely upon our natural resources,
and safeguarding these very resources from over-
exploitation and exhaustion. Agriculture is, of course,
the classic example. Unless precautions are taken, topsoil
is removed by the wind in dry weather and by runoff in
the rainy season and, in either case, finds its way into
rivers - thousands of tons each year, I believe, and this
does not augur well for the future. With the rivers
becoming heavily silted up, the flood danger is increased
40
41
CLIMATE CHANG ORLD LEADER visw DINTS
H.E. OBERT GABRIEL MUGAB
as well. Farmers must learn and put into practice
sometimes release harmful substances into the air or
techniques that will protect the precious topsoil they
water, and we are anxious to clean them up if we possibly
cultivate, and they must not indiscriminately cut down
can. It is indeed a difficult balance to achieve - between
forests in their quest for more arable land. In Zimbabwe
economic progress and protecting the environment.
we are grappling with this problem, but there is still a
long way to go. We want to get across to the people the
need to avoid overgrazing, and this is particularly
Starting with the United Nations Conference on the Human
difficult because a rural family's wealth and standing is
Environment, in 1972, quite a number of international
judged by the number of cattle and goats it possesses;
gatherings at governmental level have reached agreement on
that has been their way of thinking from time immem-
certain action to limit further environmental deterioration; I
orial. And if we want to stop people cutting down trees
am thinking for instance of the Plan of Action to Combat
for fuel or for building themselves a home, we must be
Desertification drawn up at Nairobi in 1977, the Vienna
able to offer them some alternative.
Convention on the Protection of the Ozone Layer in 1985,
Such environmental problems relate in the main
the Montreal Protocol in 1987 and the important meeting
to the developing countries. But in recent years it has
at The Hague in March 1989 which you attended. Now the
been found that certain activities in the industrialized
UN General Assembly has called for a Conference on
countries provoke environmental degradation that is no
Environment and Development to be held in Brazil in 1992.
less dramatic and frightening; I refer in particular to the
Do you believe this conference will be able to lay down a
release of chlorofluorocarbons that attack the strato-
coherent action programme? Which are the issues of greatest
spheric ozone, and to the overloading of the planet's
concern?
atmosphere with carbon dioxide and other so-called
greenhouse gases, which scientists tell us will change the
I think it is a good idea to hold this conference in Brazil
climate everywhere. There are other industrial effluents
and I hope that it will be really well attended. As I said,
that cause toxic smogs and acid rain, and destroy life in
we in the developing world are well aware of the danger
lakes, rivers and even the sea.
to our natural environment and of the need for concerted
The developed countries have now realized their
action to limit further degradation. The programme of
mistakes and urge us in the developing world not to
action should, in my view, be more than a general
repeat them. Developing countries can be forgiven for
exhortation. It should commit countries to action in each
wanting to raise their often desperately low standard
of the various specific problem areas. I imagine that
of living by launching their own industrial revolution,
Brazil was chosen as the venue of the conference partly
but nevertheless we do heed the warnings. We have
to emphasize the deforestation issue, which I fully agree
experienced for ourselves the terrible consequences of
is of the utmost importance. But clear directives will need
drought and desertification and, as I have said, we are
to be set down with regard to the ozone issue, greenhouse
doing what we can to teach farmers and planners to avoid
gases, acid rain, marine pollution, agricultural mis-
the many pitfalls. We know that our few industrial plants
management, the ecological balance and so on. We shall
42
43
CLIMATE CHANGE: WORLD LEADERS' VIEWPOINTS
H.E. ROBERT GABRIEL MUGABE
also have to focus on action in the different regions of the
programmes could be internationally co-ordinated and
world; obviously here in developing Africa we would need
extended so as to become regional in scope. Such an effort
a different programme from that in Europe, for example.
would surely merit support from developed nations. But in
Here we must have a strategy for action that is realistic
parallel with this action, we must put a stop to those
and practicable, commensurate with the financial
agricultural practices that favour desertification, such as
resources and expertise available to us. Moreover, if we are
overgrazing, deforestation or ploughing up and down
to keep it up, we shall have to have support from the
rather than along the hillsides.
developed world; that is inescapable. I should like to
see some form of regional organization charged with
supervising the implementation of the action plan on
As I am sure you are aware, the ECA Conference of Ministers
behalf of the United Nations. For us, the Organization of
decided in 1987 to create an African Centre of Meteorological
African Unity (OAU) could do it. Summing up, therefore, I
Applications for Development (ACMAD) the principal object
should like the Brazil Conference to size up the problem of
of which will be to foster projects aimed at monitoring,
the environment and then prescribe the necessary action
predicting and giving warning of impending drought or other
by continent, region and even by nation.
potentially disastrous weather-related events. Once this
centre is fully operational it will be an effective complement
to existing Drought Monitoring Centres such as, for example,
The UN General Assembly has declared drought and
the one in Harare. With this in mind, do you agree that
desertification to be of special importance in the quest for
African countries should present their problems collectively to
environmentally sound and sustainable development.
the Conference on Environment and Development in the hope
Speaking on behalf of African countries that already suffer
of attracting more support for institutions such as these?
from the scourge of desertification, what approach would
you advocate to tackle the problem at both national and
We are well placed to know the terrible ravages of drought.
international levels?
It is a natural factor that, together with the man-induced
ones I already mentioned, is extremely propitious to
The problem is an immense one. I remember visiting
desertification. It seems to me that we are getting droughts
Somalia in 1978 and I could have wept to see beautiful
more and more frequently, and they affect huge areas, not
fertile fields being smothered by tons and tons of sand.
just one country or part of a country. Therefore anything we
One feels so helpless witnessing trees being choked by the
can do to prepare for droughts or mitigate their effects needs
advancing desert, rather like people being drowned in
to be considered in a regional framework. So yes, while we
a flood. But things can and must be done. Sand-dune
may talk about the consequences of droughts in our own
stabilization programmes are in progress in several arid
lands, our perception of the problem needs to be holistic.
and semi-arid countries; suitable types of vegetation are
Therefore, I agree that African countries should present their
planted to prevent the the sand being carried by the
case collectively to the Conference. Incidentally, drought
wind, and thereby arrest the advance of the dune. These
and desertification are not problems specific to Africa.
44
45
CLIMATE CHA WORLD LEADERS' VIEWPOINTS
H.E ROBERT GABRIE MUGABE
Concerning the accumulation of chlorofluorocarbons and
planting indigenous trees which are deep-rooted and
other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the UN General
can survive droughts and hold the soil in place. These
Assembly has noted that these substances are emitted
species have proved to be better adapted to our con-
mostly by the developed countries, which must bear the
ditions than imported European trees or eucalyptus.
main responsibility in taking remedial action. However,
What we must still do is persuade farmers to reduce their
since the consequences will be world-wide, what do you
head of livestock to within the limits of sustainable
think the developing countries can and should do?
grazing, get them to cultivate grass and build dams for
irrigation. As for the implantation of new industries, we
I have to agree that responsibility for combating the
shall be very careful to see that proper environmental
problem lies first and foremost with the developed
impact studies are carried out first, and only when we
countries. I quite see the invidious position their
have complete assurance that any effects would be
governments are in: many have balance-of-payment
minimal will a permit be issued.
deficits and want their industrial products to remain
competitive in the world market, and closing down
factories will create problems of unemployment. On the
I think you would agree that environmental preservation is
other hand, I feel that their efforts up to now to find
best achieved through educating the public. Are you in
cleaner substitutes and processes have been rather
favour of the subject being included in the curricula of
half-hearted. That is where research should primarily
secondary and even primary schools?
be directed. There is really little that the developing
countries can do in this respect other than keep up the
Most certainly. A lot is done in my country to ensure
pressure on developed countries to behave responsibly.
that children are made aware from an early age of the
We shall certainly do this at the meeting of Heads of
intrinsic value of an intact environment. For example,
State of the Commonwealth countries next year.
the Forestry Commission has sponsored competitions
for essays or poems on the theme. Environmental
protection may not yet be formally included in school
At The Hague summit meeting last year you pointed out
curricula, but, once the syllabus has been properly
that developing countries could not afford to divert
formulated with the help of experts, it will be, and the
resources from their current development priorities, but you
sooner the better.
did pledge to take measures to combat desertification. What
specifically has been done in Zimbabwe?
During the summit meeting in Toronto in 1988, Chancellor
For one thing we are seeing to it that contour ridges are
Helmuth Kohl suggested a bargain whereby the poorest of
made on cultivated hillsides to arrest erosion by water
the developing countries could have some of their debts
runoff. Also we have launched a tree-planting campaign
cancelled in exchange for taking environmental protection
which seems to be popular, and we make a point of
measures. What is your reaction to this proposition?
46
47
CLIMATE CHANGE: WORLD LEADERS' VIEWPOINTS
I should regret it very much if the alleviation of the devel-
oping countries' debts were made conditional on environ-
mental protection. It is putting the cart before the horse. The
whole problem of Third World debts has to be looked at as
a separate issue. Certainly, if debts were to be written off or
the interest rates lowered, developing countries would be
better able to cater for environmental considerations in
development planning. And I am sure they would too,
because, as I said before, environmental deterioration is
very real to us in Africa, threatened as we are by advancing
deserts. So from our point of view, our creditors - the devel-
oped countries - should decide to write off the debts, saying
as they do so that they hope the developing countries will
give urgent attention to safeguarding the environment.
The theme of World Meteorological Day (23 March) in
1991 is "The atmosphere of the living planet Earth'. Is
there any message you would like to give to the nations of
the world on that occasion?
My message would be a very simple one. The problem
of managing the environment, be it the atmosphere,
the sea or the land, must be taken seriously, and every
national budget must make provision for protecting the
environment in one way or another, depending upon
the particular circumstances. Planet Earth is mother to
all of us. If we upset the delicate balance of nature
in one place, the effect is likely to spread far and wide,
and may be irreversible. Mankind alone is responsible
for the health of the planet Earth, and we must leave it
as we would like to find it. That is the least we can do
for our future generations.
48
RESEARCH AGENDA
GLOBAL
CLIMATIC CHANGE:
ANEW VISION
FOR THE 1990s
Proceedings
of
a Research Symposium Held on
October 12.13.1990
Sponsored by
The Laboratory of Climatology
at Arizona State University
VOLUME 2:
EXTENDED PROJECT DESCRIPTIONS
EXTENDED PROPOSALS & BUDGETS
THE PULSE OF SEA LEVEL DURING THE PAST CENTURY
Preposal for a Center to Model Atmosphere-Ocean Ecosystem
Interactions
74
David G. Aubrey
Roger A. Pielke
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Direct Effects of an Increase in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
75
W.E. Reifsnyder
INTRODUCTION
Sea levels have fluctuated throughout the history of the earth, dropping some 200m
Effect of Rapid Climatic Change on Ecosystem Function
77
in the last 50 million years. Sea level responds to changes in the volume of the
W.E. Reifsnyder
world oceans due both to differences in basin geometry and to changes in density
Social/Political Response to Projected Threats of "Greenhouse"
and total mass of water (glacial effects). Man's measurement of sea levels intro-
Warming
79
duces yet another uncertainty: all measurements are made relative to the coast, so
W.E. Reifsnyder
that the vertical motion of the coast itself introduces a bias into the data. In the
Global Climate Change - Research Proposal
81
past, these vertical movements have been ignored by many researchers, in spite of
S. Fred Singer
evidence that these movements can be orders of magnitude larger than putative
Climatic Changes and Water Resources
84
rises in ocean level. In a book scheduled for publication in early 1991, Aubrey and
Vujica Yevjevich
Emery document these fluctuating land levels along the world's coasts, and show
Regional Variations and Regional Interrelations of Tropospheric
that they result in a bias of uncertain but large magnitude.
Temperatures Since 1950
87
Gerd R. Weber
Sea levels are an important indicator of climatic change, because they integrate
many effects that are normally associated with these types of change. Sea level
integrates the combined effects of varying ocean density structure, whose detail it
is impossible to measure accurately enough all over the globe for the purpose of
assessing climatic change. Wunsch and Roemmich have demonstrated interdec-
adal fluctuations in ocean density and have discussed the non-uniqueness of any
interpretation because of geographical fluctuations in density. Sea level also
integrates the input of fresh water from glaciers. Rather than measuring glacial
volume or mass balance of all of the continental and marine grounded glaciers, sea
level integrates this input over the globe. While sea level might not be the ultimate
diagnostic of climatic change, it is surely valuable as an early indicator.
But, can we measure sea level accurately? For more than a hundred years, sea level
has been measure-that is to say the level of land relative to the sea. Measurements
have been undertaken with a wide variety of mechanical systems on oceanic
platforms. That such crude and varied instruments can measure changes averaging
only a millimeter or two per year is astounding, but apparently true. What is left
to measure is the influence of changing land surface on the relative sea-level
measurements. Up until now this separation has not been possible. However, new
technology now affords us the opportunity to make these measurements, using
Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI), Differential Global Positioning Sys-
tems (DGPS) and Absolute Gravity Meters (AGM). These permit measurements
of vertical motion with accuracies of a centimeter or so with respect to the center
of mass of the globe or some fixed reference frame. If we tie these geodetic
measurements into our tide-gauge recordings, we can unambiguously separate land
motion from true sea level rise.
We propose to perform such measurements of geodetic control at a network of
1
about 25 tide-gauge stations throughout the globe, where long-term tide records exist,
and positioned in areas sensitive to sea-level change. Our sites will be chosen to be
from the altered energy fluxes. Because the desertification processes occur over years
less influenced by direct human activities, such as local compaction due to ground-
or decades, it is reasonable to expect a relative warming trend for the areas of the earth
water or hydrocarbon extraction, changes in river flow, or other disturbances. These
that have experienced substantial desertification.
measurements will be made at about 8 stations per year, and measured on a three-year
RESULTS FROM A PRELIMINARY STUDY
repeat interval. As we progress through time, we will develop a long-term baseline
of land-level changes at these sites, and at different time scales, so that we can remove
Recently, I completed a preliminary study showing the impact of human-induced
the effects of land-level changes from tide-gauge records. We will therefore establish
desertification on temperature trends; the study will be published in the Bulletin of the
the true rate and probabilistic limits on the global sea level record. At present we
American Meteorological Society early in 1991. In that study, I used a map of deserti-
cannot distinguish a change in sea-level of 3 mm/year, which is an unacceptable error
fication produced for the United Nations by Howard Dregne of Texas Tech
if we want to use sea level as a diagnostic tool to study climatic change. This new
University. Using a 5° latitude by 10° longitude grid, I selected every pair of points
program will remedy that problem.
around the globe where one grid point was within an area of severe desertification while
an adjacent land-surface grid point (exactly 5° of latitude apart) was characterized by
Our budget will allow us to establish the permanent geodetic control sites in our first
no desertification; eleven of these pairs were located in all. For each month from 1881
three years, and the monitor those positions thereafter. There may be additional costs
to 1987, the temperature anomalies (from the widely-used Jones et al. gridded
associated with the purchase of an Absolute Gravity Meter. While this is an ongoing
temperature data base) of the two points were subtracted from one another, and a
project, budget totals are only for a five-year period.
linear trend was determined for the array of differences. The results indicated a
warming signal associated with desertification for all eleven pairs (seven of the trends
$500,000/year first three years
were statistically significant at the 0.99 level of confidence); this warming signal in
$300,000/year, years 4-5
the temperature data averaged +0.50°C per century.
Total (Five years) $2,100,000
The pilot study probably produced a substantial underestimation of the impact of
desertification on the temperature record given the limitations of the datasets. The
map prepared by Dregne is highly generalized and was constructed with limited
IMPACT OF DESERTIFICATION ON REGIONAL
detailed information on the timing and degree of degradation caused by human
AND GLOBAL WARMING
activities. The interpolation schemes used by Jones et al. to generate the gridded
temperature data from the widely-scattered stations in the semi-arid and arid regions
Robert C. Balling
of the world tend to smooth any high-resolution spatial differences in the temperature
Arizona State University
trends. Nonetheless, a statistically significant desertification-related warming signal
was identified clearly in this pilot study.
The present search for greenhouse-related temperature signals is complicated by a
number of potential contaminants in long-term climatic records. Urban heat islands,
SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES OF THE PROPOSED RESEARCH
station relocations, instrument changes, calibration errors, varying observation
The purpose of the proposed research is to determine the physical causes, magnitude,
times, and microclimatic changes near the instruments are among the well-known
statistical significance, and the areal extent of a warming signal that may be associated
problems in using existing temperature observations. Although these contaminants
with human-induced desertification of the past century. Specific objectives and goals
to the temperature records have received considerable attention within the past
of the study will include:
decade, the list is undoubtedly incomplete. Recently, evidence has surfaced that
(a) determine the differential warming signal associated with various intensi
human-induced desertification is producing yet another statistically significant
ties of observed desertification and identify areal differences that exist in the
warming trend in the land-based temperature data; this temperature signal may be
differential warming signals (e.g., does the desertification in the Sonoran
easily mistaken as a form of greenhouse warming. Accordingly, the purpose of the
Desert produce a response that is different from a response in the Sahel),
proposed research is to determine the physical causes, magnitude, and significance of
(b) use satellite-derived vertical profiles of the atmosphere to determine the
the warming trend in the temperature record that is uniquely related to widespread
three-dimensional structure (e.g., latitudinal, longitudinal, and vertical) of the
human-induced desertification.
near-surface temperature responses to vegetation removal, and
The role of desertification in altering the surface energy budget, and ultimately the
(c) develop an improved analytical model for simulating the influence of
near-surface air temperature, also has received considerable attention since the mid-
vegetation removal on surface and near surface thermal and moisture regimes.
1970s. Many investigators have concluded that desertification in arid and semi-arid
RESEARCH DESIGN
lands leads to a reduction in vegetative cover, surface and near-surface moisture, and
local evapotranspiration rates. With less radiant energy going to evapotranspiration,
In order to address these three objectives, three distinctly different, but highly
daytime surface temperatures increase and higher near-surface air temperatures result
interrelated, research activities will be pursued. To begin, all 5° latitude by 10°
3
longitude land-surface grid points will be located on the Dregne map, and each of the
points will be classified as having (a) no, (b) slight, (c) moderate, (d) severe, or (e)
PRELIMINARY BUDGET
very severe desertification at the time of map construction. Given the Jones et al.
Evaluation of the Historical Climate Records:
gridded temperature data and the Dregne classification for each point, a series of
multivariate statistical techniques will be used to identify the annual and seasonal
ASU Salaries:
impact of the climatic response to the desertification intensities.
Half-time support for Balling (12 months)
27,000
Benefits (@30%)
8,100
Scientists at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory have access to the vertical-profile
ASU Graduate Assistant (0.5 time for 9 months)
9,500
data collected by the TIROS polar-orbiting satellites from 1979-present. These
Benefits (@3%)
285
vertical profiles of temperature, available for 64 levels of the atmosphere, are taken
within seconds of one-another and are available for various times of the day. Given
Computing (provided by ASU)
0
that the matched profiles are taken within seconds of one-another, potential
Travel (to conferences)
3,000
problems regarding absolute calibration are minimized. By selecting matched profiles
from carefully chosen areas where spatial discontinuities exist in desertification
Publication Charges (page charges, report costs)
2,000
classes, we will determine the near-surface temperature differences and the vertical
Subtotal
49,885
extent of the temperature alteration. These analyses will determine the value of the
satellite sensor system in this type of research.
ASU On-Campus Indirect Costs (@51.0%)
25,441
Michael Novak (University of British Columbia) has recently published a series of
Total Costs (Historical Climate Data Analysis)
$75,326
papers describing his newly developed analytical model for simulating micrometeo-
rological changes associated with vegetation removal in semi-arid and arid lands.
The equations governing the soil thermal and atmospheric thermal and moisture
Analysis of Satellite-Derived Vertical Profile Data:
regimes (assuming both media to be one-dimensional semi-infinite slabs and "turbulent
Sub-Contract to Jet Propulsion Lab for
K-theory" for the atmosphere) are expanded and the results of his model appear to
Data Acquisition and Analysis
175,000
have remarkable accuracy in simulating known atmospheric changes associated with
vegetation removal. In this proposed research, Novak will further test his model with
ASU Off-Campus Indirect Costs (@33.6%)
58,800
data collected by our group for an extensive vegetation discontinuity along the U.S./
Total Costs (JPL's Vertical Profile Analysis)
$233,800
Mexico border. His model will be "tuned" in these analyses, expanded t o simulate
effects over larger areas, and compared to the results from analyses of satellite and
historical climate data.
Development and Improvement of an Analytical Model:
TCOME OF THE PROPOSED STUDY
Sub-Contract to Novak for Model Development and
Improvement (includes all computing, salary and
Results of the pilot study were extremely encouraging, and they strongly suggest that
miscellaneous expenses)
35,000
the impact of desertification on the temperature trends of the globe must be
considered in future searches for greenhouse signals. Obviously, the differential
ASU Off-Campus Indirect Costs (@33.6%)
11,760
warming associated with desertification can be confused easily with other signals in
Total Costs (Modeling Research Component)
$46,760
the data that may or may not be related to greenhouse effects. The proposed study
should produce the results necessary to resolve the causes, magnitude, and signifi-
Total Project Costs
$355,886
cance of this feedback mechanism. Following completion of the six-month project,
from the effort.
a full set of journal articles, conference presentations, and press releases will result
AIR A SYNOPTIC MASS CLIMATOLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF TRENDS ARCTIC
CHARACTERISTICS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IN
PROCEDURES
Synoptic climatological procedures allow for the multivariate analysis of daily
Robert E. Davis
historical weather data. Although a variety of classification techniques are appropri-
University of Virginia
ate in synoptic climatological analysis, only a few of the methods which are most
CTION
pertinent to the proposed research are discussed here.
model In light (GCM) of predictions of global warming based primarily upon
recent climate output, many climatologists have undertaken a detailed general circulation
Of the wide variety of automated or computer-based synoptic typing techniques,
those which utilize empirical orthogonal functions and/or cluster analysis to define
scrutinized datasets trends based upon historical data. Undoubtedly, the analysis of
analyzed with have been global surface temperature records, which most carefully
recurring weather patterns have recently become quite common. Kalkstein and
bands, continental regard to diurnal and seasonal variations, spatial changes over have been
Corrigan (1986) developed a Temporal Synoptic Index which classifies each day's
weather at an individual site into one of a discrete number of classes. The weather
1988; Karl et Idso, 1989; Karl and Jones, 1989; Sansom, 1989; versus Hansen rural and records (e.g.,
Balling and versus maritime readings, and urban latitude
characteristics of each class, or synoptic type, are distinct and statistically different
will be evidenced al., 1988; Wigley, 1987). However, if some warming does Lebedeff,
from the conditions in the other synoptic types. This approach has recently been
applied to analyze arctic temperature trends (Kalkstein et al., 1990) and results
atmospheric not only in the temperature record, but in a broad occur, changes
indicate some evidence of arctic warming based upon increasing frequencies of the
temperature warming in the high latitudes should decrease general the circulation,
since disparate example, alterations would be expected in the of the
atmosphere. For parameters which reflect the dynamics and thermodynamics array of
warmest air masses, decreasing frequencies of the coldest air masses, and warming of
the coldest air masses over the available period of record. However, these results must
in the characteristics gradient and weaken the polar jet. Changes might also be hemispheric
be viewed with caution since the analysis was based primarily on surface weather records
Because the basic or frequencies of air masses over the high and anticipated
which are subject to urbanization effects which can be significant even for relatively
investigate this nature of the atmospheric circulation could vary, it is mid-latitudes. important to
small population changes (Balling and Idso, 1989). A second approach involves a
change from a multivariate as well as a univariate perspective.
spatial classification in which stations experiencing similar weather conditions over
a 24-hour period are grouped (Davis, 1988; Davis and Kalkstein, 1990). The resulting
estimated Background carbon dioxide concentrations from pre-industrial
weather types represent air masses or air mass boundaries (frontal systems) and closely
1985; Raynaud to be in the range of 260 to almost 300 ppm (e.g., Idso, 1989; times have been
correspond to surface weather map features.
about 350 and Barnola, 1985), and current concentrations Neftel et al.,
nitrous oxides, ppm and (Wigley, 1987). Other radiatively significant trace are estimated at
The synoptic climatological technique proposed here is a combination of the
atmosphere chlorofluorocarbon-have also been increasing gase-methane,
temporal and spatial techniques described above. It involves utilizing a spatial
in carbon dioxide and in toto represent a radiative forcing of about 80 dramatically in the
network of rawinsonde stations and grouping days in which upper air dynamics and
for, the current from 270 to 350 ppm. Thus, when these trace percent gases are of the change
thermodynamics are similar at standard pressure levels. Thus, a four-dimensional
410 atmosphere has an effective carbon dioxide concentration accounted
analysis is possible, since the spatial, vertical, and temporal variations in atmospheric
1990). ppm, One or 150 percent of the pre-industrial background of about
conditions can be analyzed using one method. This regional, upper-air analysis has
exists, would in therefore expect that some evidence of concentration global (Michaels,
been successfully utilized in current and ongoing research in characterizing atmospheric
GCM output. particularly those regions of the globe most sensitive to warming, warming based currently upon
states over the western United States.
Specifically, rawinsonde data will be sampled for both Alaska and western and central
dioxide General circulation models indicate that, under the influence of
Canada and Scandinavia and the western Soviet Union in December, January, and
high latitude concentrations, land surface air temperature will increase doubled carbon
February. Additionally, data for June, July, and August will be compiled for the north-
pated" over areas during the low sun season. Significant disparately is over the
central United States and southern Canada, and western Europe. These general
Although Alaska and northwestern Canada and in Scandinavia warming "antici-
locations are the areas in which the global climate models predict maximum warming
significant forecasted summer increases are lower in magnitude than in the winter.
in a doubled carbon dioxide environment. The available record lengths will vary, but
central Canada, maxima and are western located Europe. over the north-central United States and in winter, south-
in some instances rawinsonde data are available from the mid 1950s, providing up to
35 years of data for analysis. The following variables will be sampled twice each day:
frequencies The goal of or this proposed research is determine if significant trends
air temperature, dew point temperature, geopotential height, and the east-west (u)
historical record. characteristics of the air masses found in these regions, based exist in the
and north-south (v) components of the wind vector. These variables represent a
combination of dynamic (flow) and thermodynamic (thermal) variables which are
predict by GCMs, then an important confirmation of the climate models matches those
forecast If variations are uncovered, and if their direction upon the
commonly used to identify synoptic types. These variables will be sampled at the 850,
historical temporal data, then variation will be made. Conversely, if no signal is ability to
700, 500, and 250 mb standard pressure levels. If rawinsonde data are available over
particularly mountainous areas, a pressure lower than 850 mb may be necessary to
regional-scale one must call into question the application of GCM apparent output in the to
climate forecasting.
assure representative sampling over the region.
7
The synoptic types will be developed using a combination of multivariate statistical
REFERENCES
techniques. First, the large data array for each region will be input into a principal
Balling, R.C. and S.B. Idso (1989) Historical temperature trends in the United States
components analysis. This is used to eliminate the high degree of multicollinearity
and the effect of urban population growth. Journal of Geophysical Research 84, 3359-
3363.
present in these data and to reduce the size of the data array to a more manageable
number of principal components while still retaining a large portion of the variance
Davis, R.E. (1988) The Development of a Spatial Synoptic Climatological Index for
in the data. Then, based on the resulting component scores, a two-stage clustering
Environmental Analysis. Ph.D. dissertation, Dept. of Geography, Univ. of Delaware,
technique will be employed to identify the synoptic types. First, average linkage
Newark, Delaware, 210pp.
clustering is used to identify the number of synoptic types and to characterize the
Davis, R.E. and Kalkstein, L.S. (1990) Development of an automated spatial synoptic
mean conditions of each type (Sokal and Michener, 1958). Then, using these cluster
climatological classification. International Journal of Climatology, 10, 769-794.
means as seeds, convergent k-means clustering is used to develop the final synoptic
climatology (MacQueen, 1967). Various tests have indicated that this two-stage
Hansen, J. and S.L. Lebedeff (1988) Global surface air temperatures: update through
clustering procedure of applying hierarchical (average linkage) and then non-
1987. Geophysical Research Letters 15, 323-326.
hierarchical (k-means) methods produces more distinct clusters than using either
Idso, S.B. (1989) Carbon Dioxide and Global Change: Earth in Transition. IBR Press,
method alone (Milligan, 1980). As a result of these procedures, those days in which
Tempe, Arizona, 292pp.
types. the regional, upper-air conditions are similar will be grouped into the same synoptic
Kalkstein, L.S. and Corrigan, P. (1986) A synoptic climatological approach for
environmental analysis: assessment of sulfur dioxide concentrations. Annals of the
Since each day will be classified into one of a finite number of synoptic situations, it
Association of American Geographers 76, 381-395.
is relatively simple to analyze the changes in monthly or yearly frequencies using a
Kalkstein, L.S., Dunne, P., and Vose, R. (1990) Detection of climatic change in the
variety of statistical techniques. Some of the possible analytic methods include trend
western North American arctic using a synoptic climatological approach, Journal of
analysis, time series analysis, profile analysis, and regression analysis. Through these
Climate, 3, 1153-1167.
techniques it will be possible to determine if statistically significant trends exist in the
character of the atmospheric circulation over the available period of record.
Karl, T.R. and P.D. Jones (1989) Urban bias in area-averaged surface air temperature
trends. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 70, 265-270.
PRODUCTS addressed: As a result of this research, several key questions regarding climatic change will be
Karl, T.R., Baldwin, R.G., and M.G. Burgin (1988) Time series of regional season
1. Are there any statistically significant trends in the frequency of synoptic
averages of maximum, minimum, and average temperature, and diumal temperature
types in the "climatically sensitive" regions defined by the GCMs?
range across the United States, 1901-1984. U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Historical
Climatology Series 4-5, National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina.
types? 2. Are there any identifiable changes in the characteristics of the synoptic
108pp.
3. If trends do indeed exist, are they compatible with the variation forecast by
MacQueen, J. (1967) Some methods for classification and analysis of multivariate
general circulation models in an enhanced CO2 environment?
observations. Proceedings of the Fifth Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and
Probability 1, 281-297.
These questions are critical scientific issues in the climate change community and
should add significant insight into both the extent to which atmospheric character-
Michaels, P.J. (1990) The greenhouse effect and global change: review and
istics have varied in the recent past and the ability of climate models to predict future
reappraisal. International Journal of Environmental Studies 36, 55-71.
conditions in an atmosphere characterized by increased levels of greenhouse gases.
Milligan, G.W. (1980) An examination of the effect of six types of error perturbation
The total cost of this research project is $600,000 over two years. This includes
on fifteen clustering algorithms. Psychometrika 45, 325-342.
summer salary for the principal investigator, year-round salary for two graduate
Neftel, A., Moor, E., Oeschger, H., and B. Staugger (1985) Evidence from polar ice
students, purchase of rawinsonde data, computer time, some minor equipment
cores for the increase in atmospheric CO2 in the past two centuries. Nature 315, 45-
purchases, administrative costs, travel and publication charges and overhead. A
47.
detailed budget for the two-year period will gladly be provided upon request.
Raynaud, D. and J.M. Barnola (1985) An Antarctic ice core reveals atmospheric
CO2 variations over the past few centuries. Nature 315, 309-311.
Sansom, J. (1989) Antarctic surface temperature time series. Journal of Climate 2,
1164-1172.
Sokal, R.R. and Michener, C.D. (1958) A statistical method for evaluating system-
atic relationships. University of Kansas Science Bulletin, 38, 1409-1438.
Wigley, T.M.L. (1987) Relative contributions of different trace gases to the
greenhouse effect. Climate Monitor 16, 14-28.
THE EFFECT OF RISING ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION ON
CARBON ACCUMULATION IN A DECIDUOUS FOREST ECOSTYSTEM
Which ecosystems should be studied? Approximately 65% of the terrestrial carbon
accumulation occurs in forest ecosystems. However, our knowledge of the responses
Bert G. Drake
of forests to rising CO2 is limited to about thirty studies with tree seedlings in
Smithsonian Environmental Research Center
controlled environments and generally under conditions in which the possible effects
of CO2 on growth and photosynthesis have been minimized Eamus and Jarvis, 1989;
The direct effects of rising CO2 on vegetation may turn out to have impacts on
Jarvis, 1989).
ecosystem processes and the global carbon budget which are as important as the
effects of climate change. More importantly, stimulation of carbon dioxide assimila-
The studies of wetland species we have carried out in the field for the past four years
tion and growth of plants may mitigate the rate of the rise in atmospheric CO2
have shown that there is a very large stimulation of carbon accumulation in
concentration.
ecosystems by elevated CO2 and that most of the additional carbon (by comparison
with the same ecosystems growing in normal ambient CO2 concentration) is stored
Biological processes exert a powerful impact on atmospheric CO2 concentration.
in below ground roots and rhizomes (Curtis, et al., 1989 a,b; 1990). Our studies have
During summer, photosynthesis of green plants draws the concentration down and
also shown that plants grown in the field under natural conditions respond differently
during fall when the decay of dead plant material is the dominant process, it rises
to elevated CO2 than do those grown in controlled environments. We have found
again. At 60°N latitude this seasonal variation is approximately 15 ppm (Gammon,
that elevated CO2 increases photosynthetic capacity (Arp and Drake, in review; Ziska
Sundquist, and Fraser, 1985). In the past 20 years, seasonal amplitude of the average
et al., 1990; Long and Drake, In press) rather than decreasing it as has been found in
CO2 concentration at Mauna Loa has increased (Keeling, 1989), indicating that the
many laboratory studies, and that the rate of plant respiration is decreased (Drake, et
biological activity has increased in this time.
al. in review). These two effects, if they occur in forest ecosystems, will mean that as
This effect arises from one of the most well-known plant physiological processes: the
the CO2 rises, ecosystems will accumulate and store much more carbon than they do
increase of photosynthesis, growth and water use efficiency when CO2 concentrations
at present.
are increased above present normal ambient levels. Almost as important is the
Studies of natural vegetation will obviate any possible artifacts which may complicate
interaction between elevated CO2 and temperature because the stimulation of
interpretation of results in the context of the impact of rising CO2 on ecosystem
photosynthesis by elevated CO2 increases as temperature increases. At 15°C the
processes. For this reason we propose to conduct a field study of the effects of elevated
effect of doubling the CO2 concentration on photosynthesis is about 15% increase but
atmospheric CO2 concentration on the deciduous forest ecosystem. We will use open
at 35°C, this increase is near 100%. In other words, rising CO2 could conceivably
top chambers on the forest floor to study the responses of shade tolerant tree species,
double photosynthesis in tropical and subtropical regions.
we will use open top chambers in an old field in which juvenile tree species have been
Would increased photosynthesis significantly effect the atmospheric pool of carbon?
planted and follow the development of second growth forest, and we will attempt to
The annual injection of CO2 from fossil fuels is about 5 Gt/y and about 1-2 Gt/y from
use branch chambers on mature trees to determine whether the responses to elevated
deforestation which produces an annual increase in atmospheric CO2 of approxi-
CO2 observed in immature tress also occur in mature trees.
mately 3 Gt with the remainder going into the oceans (Tans, et al. 1990). The
We propose to construct and operate a system of 30 chambers divided roughly equally
exchange of CO2 between the atmosphere and the biosphere is roughly 100 Gt
between the forest canopy, the forest understory and second growth deciduous forest.
assimilated and about the same amount lost per year (Woodwell, 1989). These
This will allow five replicates of each treatment in each of the three components of
exchange rates are so large compared to the magnitude of the anthropogenic sources
the forest; second growth, understory and canopy. CO2 will be increased in one-half
of CO2 that small changes in either photosynthesis or respiration could drive the
of the chambers to twice the level occurring in those receiving normal ambient CO2
carbon dioxide content in the atmospheric pool up or down (Houghton,et al. 1985;
concentration. We will study photosynthesis, evapotranspiration, respiration, growth
Woodwell, 1989).
of above and below ground plant structures, soil organic matter, nutrient cycling,
Thus, vegetation has a potentially significant role in mitigating the rise in atmo-
canopy structure and the carbon budget. In order to determine the long-term effects
spheric CO2. I believe that this effect has been too lightly dismissed in the current
of elevated CO2 on this forest ecosystem will utilize a model of forest growth
flood of discussion of the effect of global climate change on ecosystems and redistri-
parameterized with the data obtained in the experimental work.
bution of plant communities. Although the direct effect of rising CO2 on vegetation
is considered possible (e.g., Bacastow and Keeling, 1973;Emanuel, Shugart and
REFERENCES
Bacastow, R. and C.D. Keeling. 1973. Atmospheric carbon dioxide and radiocarbon
Stevenson, 1985; Shands and Hoffman, 1987; Jarvis, 1989), current thinking is
in the natural carbon cycle. I.Changes from A.D. 1700 to 2070 as deduced from a
dominated by the view that terrestrial ecosystems are a source rather than a sink for
geochemical model. In: G.M.Woodwell and E. Pecan, eds. Carbon and the Biosphere.
CO2, mainly because of deforestation (Houghton,et al.1985). Discussion of defores-
U.S.Atomic Energy Commission, Washington, D.C.
tation and the role of CO2 in changing climate with the consequent possibilities for
changes in distribution of ecosystems, seems to have eclipsed consideration of the
Curtis, P.S., Drake, B.G., Leadley, P.W., Arp, W.J. and D.F.Whigham. 1989a.
direct effect of CO2 on ecosystem carbon metabolism, the hydrologic budget, etc..
Growth and senescence in plant communities exposed to elevated CO2 concentra-
tions on an estuarine marsh. Oecologia 78:20-26.
Curtis, P.S., Drake, B.G. and D.F. Whigham. 1989b. Nitrogen and carbon dynamics
Tans, P.R., Fung, I.Y., and Takahashi, T. 1990. Observational constraints on the
78:297-301. in C3 and C4 estuarine marsh plants grown under elevated CO2 in situ. Oecologia
global atmospheric carbon dioxide budget. Science.
Curtis, P.S., Balduman, L.M., Drake, B.G. and D.F. Whigham. 1990. The effect of
Woodwell, G.M. Whittaker, R.H., Reiners, W.A., Likens, G.E., Delwiche, C.C., and
elevated atmospheric CO2 on belowground processes in C3 and C4 estuarine marsh
D.T Botkin. 1978. The biota and the world carbon budget. Science 199:141-146.
communities. Ecology.
Ziska, L., Drake, B.G. and S. Chamberlain. 1990. Long-term photosynthetic response
Drake, B.G., Leadley, P.W., Arp, W.J., Nassiry, D. and P.S. Curtis. 1989. An
in single leaves of a C3 and C4 salt marsh species grown in elevated atmospheric CO2
top chamber for field studies of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration on open salt-
in situ. Oecologia 83:469-472.
marsh vegetation. Functional Ecology 3:363-371.
Drake, B.G., Leadley, P.W., Arp, W., Curtis, P. and DF. Whigham. In The
effect of elevated atmospheric CO2 on C3 and C4 vegetation on Chesapeake press. Bay.
BUDGET
I. Site establishment
$310,000
29-September 2, 1988. Elsevier, Amsterdam.
Proceedings, International Symposium on Physiological Ecology of Aquatic Plants, August
30 Chambers at $2000 each
$60,000
CO2 monitoring and control systems
$100,000
Data acquisition and management system
0
Drake, B.G., Ziska, L.H., Bunce, J.A., Arp, W.J., Hogan, K. and A.P. Smith. In
Capital construction and site preparation
$100,000
CO2. review. Dark respiration in plants grown in the field exposed to elevated atmospheric
II. Annual Operating Costs
$400,000
A. Personnel
$210,000
CO2 Eamus, D. and Jarvis, P. 1989. The direct effects of increase in the global atmospheric
1. Post doct. research associates (2 @35,000)
$70,000
concentration on natural and commercial temperate trees and forests. Advances
2. Senior technicians (2 @40,000)
$80,000
in Ecological Research, 19:2- 56.
3. Students (3 @20,000)
$60,000
B. Utilities
$80,000
Emanuel, W.R, Shugart, H.H. ad M.P. Stevenson. 1985. Climatic change and the
1. Power
$15,000
broad-scale distribution of terrestrial ecosystem complexes. Climate Change 7:29-43.
2. CO2
$75,000
C. Expendable supplies
$100,000
Gammon, R.H., Sundquist, E.T. and P.J. Fraser. 1985. History of carbon dioxide
D. Travel
$10,000
the atmosphere. In: J.R. Trabalka, ed. Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and the Global in
Carbon Cycle. US Department of Energy, DOE/ER-0239. pp.25-62.
III. Overhead (23% of direct costs)
$530,000
Houghton, R.A.. 1987. Terrestrial metabolism and atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
IV. Total costs for five years
$2,830,000
BioScience. 37:672-678.
Jarvis, the P.. (1989) Atmospheric carbon dioxide and forests. Philosophical transactions of
Royal Society, London. B. 324:369-392.
TO STUDY THE HADLEY ZONE AS A PLANETARY AIR CONDITIONER
Hugh W. Ellsaesser
Keeling, C. 1989. Overview of Scripps program to observe atmospheric carbon dioxide.
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Scripps Institution of Oceanography preprint, 2 January, 1989.
PROPOSITION
It is proposed that in the Hadley Zone, or tropical band from roughly 30N to 30S
Long, S.P. and Drake, B.G. In Press. The effect of long-term CO2 fertilization in the
latitude, the confinement of essentially all precipitation processes to deep convection
Physiology. field on the quantum yield of photosynthesis in the C3 sedge: Scirpus olneyi. Plant
with its compensating broadscale subsidence, means that any acceleration of the
hydrological cycle will lead to a negative water vapor greenhouse feedback rather than
positive feedback as presently predicted by most climate models.
U.S. Shands, W.E. and Hoffman, J.S. 1987. The Greenhouse Effect, Climate Change, and
The rationale for this proposition, is that any acceleration of the hydrological cycle
Washington D.C., 20037
Forests. The Conservation Foundation, 1250 Twenty-fourth Street, N.W.,
not only accelerates the convective updrafts producing the precipitation but also
accelerates the broadscale subsidence surrounding the convective updrafts. For the
ITCZs and monsoons this means acceleration of the Hadley return flow downwelling
13
over the subtropics of both hemispheres which is responsible for the broadscale
BASELINING THE ATMOSPHERIC STATE INCLUDING CLIMATE
aridity and deserts of the subtropics of today. For tropical cyclones and isolated
(BASIC)
thunderstorms of the tropics, it means acceleration of the broadscale subsidence
known to surround these storms. In all cases it means an acceleration of the
Michael Garstang
subsidence responsible for the confinement of trade cumulus to a vertically restricted
University of Virginia
moist layer capped by a temperature inversion and an abrupt drop in humidity.
INTRODUCTION
The ongoing buildup in greenhouse gases has led to increasing speculation about their
The net result will be a thinner water vapor greenhouse blanket, permitting outgoing
detrimental climatic and environmental impact. The more popular scenarios, which
IR radiation to escape to space from a lower level and/or higher temperature than
envision global warming and ecological disaster, descend from a deceptively simple
now, rather than a thicker one as predicted by current climate models.
positive feedback hypothesis: greater amounts of infrared-absorbing gases will in-
OSAL
crease atmospheric emissivity; therefore, globally averaged surface temperature will
It it is proposed to document the above proposition and to draft parameterization
increase due to an increase in downward emitted longwave radiation originating at
schemes by which climate models can be constructed to more closely represent the
the earth's surface. However, the scientific debate over the global warming issue has
physical effects resulting from convective processes within the tropics.
definitely not ended. The global effects of negative cloud feedback upon surface
One of the principal unexpected results of the deep convection of the tropics is that
temperature deserves far more attention (Lindzen, 1990).
the latent heat of condensation released in convective updrafts is not mixed with the
Based upon observations from tropical field experiments of the past two decades
surrounding atmosphere at the level at which condensation occurs. Rather this
(Massie, 1990; Chong and Hauser, 1990; Houze, 1982; Johnson and Young, 1983),
released heat merely supplies the buoyancy which keeps the updraft rising. The
new global cloud data (Warren, et at., 1988), and the historical temperature record
atmospheric heating that occurs as a result of deep convection, is the adiabatic
(Karl, et at., 1988a, 1988b, 1989), we hypothesize that a greenhouse signal is
warming which occurs as a result of the compensating subsidence which occurs over
appearing in global clouds trends and surface moisture rather than in global temperature
a broad area surrounding the convective updrafts. In the case of the ITCZs and
trends. To test this hypothesis, we propose a strategy for measuring the effects of these
monsoons, this subsidence and warming can occur far removed from the convective
trends on net radiation at two key action points in the tropics.
updrafts. In fact, the bulk of it occurs in the hemisphere opposite from that in which
the convective updrafts occur.
The planet has already gone half-way to an effective doubling of pre-industrial carbon
dioxide, the most important greenhouse gas besides water vapor (Michaels, 1990).
ACH
The initial step in this proposal will be a careful comparison of vertical profiles and
Yet, the historical temperature record, after corrections for the urban heat island
fluxes of energy and moisture parameters from observational data and from various
effect and for long-term site bias, does not show any significant warming during this
current climate models. This will be done over a latitude range extending from the
century (Karl, et al., 1988a, 1988b, 1989).
ITCZ to the subtropical ridge.
A recent General Circulation Model (GCM) experiment by Rind and Peteet (1989)
It is anticipated that this will both confirm the proposition and provide information
attempted to simulate the Last Glacial Maximum corresponding to 116 to 106 kyr B.
as to how convection parameterization needs to be modified for modeled convection
P. The results showed large discrepancies between the GCM response to Milanko-
to produce the same physical effects in the atmosphere as does actual convection.
vitch orbital forcing and the geophysical evidence of ice sheet initiation. Specifically,
the model failed to maintain snow cover through the summer locations of suspected
CES
This is obviously an open ended project leading all the way from by a single
initiation of the major ice sheets, despite the reduced summer and fall insolation.
investigator to construction and operational application of a full-scale three-dimen-
Moreover, when 10-m-thick ice was inserted in all locations where continental ice
sional GCM climate model. However, until the first step proposed above is
sheets existed during the Last Glacial Maximum, the model failed to maintain it as
successfully completed, launching of a larger project is unlikely to be possible in
well, producing energy and mass imbalances which removed the ice within five years.
today's climate. Completion of the initial proposal is estimated to require approxi-
Rind and Peteet concluded that there are three possibilities: (1) their GCM model
mately one calendar year of 50% of the time of the principal investigator, i.e., roughly
is wrong, (2) the response is being misinterpreted, or (3) the forcing function is not
$75,000 with overhead.
properly specified. Is there warm bias in the current GCM's? Are the GCM's and the
simple positive feedback hypothesis neglecting important negative feedback?
PHICAL SKETCH
HYPOTHESIS AND OBJECTIVES
Dr. Ellsaesser, an atmospheric scientist, retired from USAF Air Weather Service after
The main atmospheric response to greenhouse forcing may not be an increase in
21 years as a weather officer and from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
global surface temperature. The lack of an observed surface temperature trend implies
after 24 years in climate research. He is continuing his studies at LLNL as a
that we should reject the simple positive feedback hypothesis and test alternative
Participating Guest Scientist.
hypotheses which include both negative and positive feedback.
Oceanic cloud data for 1952 to 1981 (Warren et al., 1988) show global trends in
amounts of cumulonimbus have increased at all latitudes, with a maximum increase
15
in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Additionally, the occurrence of
METHODS
The proposed work fall into five parts.
completely clear sky has increased in the regions dominated by the Subtropical
1. Identify BASIC Monitoring Sites.
Anticyclones (STA's). These trends may reflect global change signals related to
Two basic monitoring sites are proposed. The strength of two sites is seen in terms of
greenhouse forcing. What sort of feedback could explain these observed cloud trends
looking for predicted extremes in response. A large but opposite response to
and the absence of a surface warming trend?
greenhouse loading in middle and high latitudes should be seen in the low level inflow
Under clear sky conditions, increasing amounts of greenhouse gases will increase
to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and upper level outflow and sinking
downward radiation emitted by the atmosphere. Therefore, a positive radiation-
in the Subtropical Anticyclones (STA). Differential response between the two
locations in cloudiness, moisture, energy, and radiative quantities (net radiation)
surface temperature signal should appear in large areas like the STA's, which are
dominated by strong subsidence and tend to have few clouds. The increased
should be large. It is proposed that the first part of this study use GCM/climate models
downward longwave radiation due to greenhouse forcing should promote surface
to:
(1) identify paired centers of action having an opposite response, and
(2) identify variables and/or calculated quantities which have a very high
warming, higher sea surface temperatures, and more surface evaporation.
differential signal.
On their equatorward side, the STA's feed moisture to the ITCZ, the region of
We will initially focus upon a location in one of the tropical centers of action (e.g. the
maximum thunderstorm activity on the planet. Results from ABLE-2B, GATE,
Central Amazon Basin) and a location in one of the subtropical high pressure systems
MONEX, and COPT, show that tropical line disturbances, common in the ITCZ,
exert negative feedback on surface temperature over large areas for periods of up to
(e.g. the Cape Verde Islands).
12 hours (Fitzjarrald and Garstang, 1981). Large tropical thunderstorm complexes
2. Identify BASIC Observed Variables/Parameters.
generate compensating mesoscale circulations in response to vertical eddy heat
In concert with 3.1 above we will test the expected response of variables and
fluxes. These circulations warm and dry the middle and upper troposphere and cool
calculated quantities to greenhouse gas enhancement. We postulate that a crucial
and moisten the lower troposphere. The vertical eddy heat fluxes in tropical squall
response is likely to be net radiation at the surface and in the upper troposphere. We
lines maintain the upper tropospheric geopotential gradient needed to drive the
will test this postulate and use the results to decide upon the variable to be measured
poleward directed upper limb of the Hadley Circulation.
and parameters to be calculated.
In summary, the STA and ITCZ are important centers of action in the Hadley
3. Instrumenting the BASIC Stations
circulation. An ongoing increase in downward longwave radiation due to the buildup
Once locations and variables have been established in 1. and 2. above, we will design
of greenhouse gases promotes surface warming and more evaporation in areas free of
the instrument system to be employed. In principle, we expect to combine surface and
clouds. Trade winds on the equator side of the STA will thus carry more moisture into
surface based measurements with the satellite measurements. The objective would
the ITCZ which should respond with an increase in thunderstorms. Observations
then be, for example, to produce at both locations, the best measurements of net
show that low level drying and cooling in the wake of tropical squall lines exert
radiation through the tropospheric column. To achieve this objective, we would
negative feedback on surface temperature. At the global scale, this negative cloud
design and produce net radiometers which are used in concert with rawind and profiler
feedback in the STA and could help explain the absence of a warming trend in the
soundings from the ground. The final system designed would be capable of long term
surface temperature record.
continuous measurements at each BASIC site.
The objectives of the proposed study are thus to:
4. Operation of the BASIC Stations.
1. Seek differential response between two locations where a maximum but
We would undertake to establish the two BASIC stations and to operate these stations
opposite signal is expected from any greenhouse warming of the atmosphere.
in cooperation with the local authorities. We would design the system to telemeter
2. Identify the variables and/or parameters which are likely to contain the
via satellite the observations in real time to a base station in the United States. We
largest signal-to-noise ratio. It is postulated that this signal will be largest in
would set up procedures for ongoing quality control, archiving, and documentation.
such quantities as cloudiness, atmospheric moisture, and radiation heating and
We would work in close cooperation with the National Center for Atmospheric
cooling.
Research (NCAR) and their efforts to develop equipment and sensors suited to our
3. Design an observing systems that can be established and maintained at the
purposes.
two key locations for a period as long as 10 years.
4. Archive and make available in real time the observations from the two
5. Analysis.
We would mount an analytical program in part based upon the GCM/climate models
BASIC stations to the community at large.
5. Carry out an analytical program on a continuous basis evaluating the
to continually incorporate and evaluate the measurements and differential signal
signals of BASIC for evidence of climate response and change.
being obtained from the two BASIC stations. We would keep current with estimates
of greenhouse gas chambers and find and explain lack of response in our measurements.
We see BASIC as an absolute essential process if we are ever to establish links between
the anthropogenic greenhouse gases and climate change.
ET
Stage I.
Identify BASIC monitoring sites.
Year 1.
DATA MANAGEMENT TO REDUCE UNCERTAINTIES OF GREEN-
$150,000
Stage II.
HOUSE EFFECT PROGNOSTICATIONS AND TO VALIDATE CLIMATE
Identify BASIC variables.
CHANGE MODELS
Year 1.
$150,000
Stage III.
Nathaniel B. Guttman
Identify and acquire BASIC instrumentation systems.
National Climatic Data Center
Year 2-3.
$1,000,000
Stage IV.
Operate BASIC stations and do analysis.
Research designed to reduce the uncertainties of greenhouse effect prognostications
Year 4-10.
$2,450,000
as well as comparisons designed to validate climatic change models require data.
These data, to be useful, must be archived, available, and accessible. Additionally,
Total request over 10 years:
$3,750,000
corollary information about how the data were collected, processed and stored must
also be archived, available and accessible to avoid misuse of aggregations and
summarizations of the data.
ENCES
Chong, M. and D. Hauser, 1990: A tropical squall line observed during the COPT
81 experiment in West Africa. Part III. Heat and moisture budgets. Mon. Wea. Rev.,
Although the detection and quantification of climate change on a global scale is a
118, 1696-1706.
worthwhile scientific endeavor, policy is often set based on regional impacts of
climate on economic considerations. Examples of economic considerations are
Fitzjarrald, D. R. and M. Garstang, 1981: Boundary-layer growth over the tropical
agricultural production (plants and animals), maintenance of adequate water supplies,
ocean. Mon. Wea. Rev., 109, 1762-1772.
coastline development, and energy usage.
J. Meteor Soc. Japan, 60, 396-410.
Houze, R. A., Jr., 1982: Cloud clusters and large-scale vertical motions in the tropics.
The proposed data management activity will aid researchers working on both global
and regional climate change problems. The objective of the proposal is to compile and
Johnson, R. H. and G. S. Young, 1983: Heat and moisture budgets of tropical
manage an accessible data base that is suitable for: 1) describing observed patterns in
mesoscale anvil clouds. J. Atmos. Sci., 40, 2138-2147.
climate-sensitive regions such as the tropics and high altitude deserts, 2) using as a
Karl, T. R., R. G. Baldwin, and M. G. Burgin, 1988a: Time series of regional seasonal
baseline for model and scenario tests and comparisons, and 3) furthering the
averages on maximum, minimum, and average temperature, and diurnal temperature
understanding of currently poorly explained processes such as deep convection energy
across the United States: 1901-1984, 107 pp (Available from the National Climatic range
transport. The proposal consists of four parts geared to data requirements that are
Data Center, Federal Building, Asheville, NC 28801).
necessary for meeting the objective.
Karl, T.R., H. F. Diaz, and G. Kukla, 1988b: Urbanization: Its detection and effects
DATA BASE DEVELOPMENT
in the United States climate record. J. Clim., 1, 1099-1123.
Meteorological variables that will meet the objective are static quantities such as
Karl, T.R.,J. D. Trapley, R. G. Quayle, H.F. Diaz, D. A. Robinson, and R.S. Bradley,
temperature and precipitation, and dynamic quantities such as momentum and
405-430. 1989: The recent climate record: what it can and cannot tell us. Rev. Geophys., 27,
energy fluxes. Satellite and in situ measured and derived quantities for both surface
and upper air are candidates for inclusion in the data base. GCM model output data
are also desirable for inclusion. The variables as well as locations of climate-sensitive
Lindzen, R. S. 1990: Some coolness concerning global warming. Bull. Amer. Meteor
regions will be determined in concert with the research community.
Soc., 71, 288-299.
Recognizing that many data bases currently exist, especially of static surface variables,
Massie, H. L., Jr., 1990: Energy budget in tropical line disturbances during the 1987
it is important to justify the need for development of a new data base. The proposed
Amazon wet season. Ph.D. dissertation, University of Virginia, under preparation.
data base will consolidate and integrate existing data bases into one source; contain
data for the specific purpose of describing patterns in climate-sensitive regions, testing
Michaels, P.J. 1990: Greenhouse disaster? Submitted to Science.
models and scenarios, and furthering the understanding of dynamic processes; and
Rind, D. and D. Peteet, 1989: Can Milankovitch orbital variations initiate growth
allow for future inclusion of variables that are not presently available, such as high
of ice sheets in a general circulation model? J. Geophys. Res., 94, 12.851-1287.
altitude specific humidity.
Warren, S. G., C.J. Hahn, J. London, R. M. Chervin, and R. L. Jenne, 1988: Global
This first part of the proposal consists not only of selecting the variables and locations
for inclusion in the data base, but also the building of the management framework for
of Distribution of Total Cloud Cover and Cloud Type Amounts over the Ocean. U.S. Dept.
Energy Publication DOE/ER 0406, 42 pp + Maps.
the data base. This latter effort involves the development of formats, file structures,
integration with existing data bases, and inventories of data completeness.
10
UMENTATION OF DATA HISTORY
BUDGET
Part
Cost
Identification of non-climatic changes in data observing, processing and storing is
critical to properly aggregating and summarizing data. The second part of the
Data Base Development
$500,000
proposal, determining the history of the data, is a labor intensive effort of searching
2 Senior Systems Analyst-years
250,000
for information from various sources, and compiling a comprehensive documentary.
2 Senior Climatologist-years
250,000
Observing information will be compiled about site characteristics and changes;
Documentation of Data History
350,000
instrument type, calibration, maintenance, and response characteristics; and changes
5 Climatologist clerk-years
250,000
in observing methods and codes. Data processing information will include quality
1 Climatologist
100,000
assurance procedures, data transfer/manipulation activities, and data adjustment
Analysis of Data Problems
650,000
techniques.
5 Senior Climatologist/Statistician-years
650,000
YSIS OF DATA PROBLEMS
User Accessibility
500,000
Assessing the importance of the changes indicated in the data history is the third part
Hardware/software purchase
100,000
of the proposal. Climate is generally described by measures of central tendency and
2.5 Senior Systems Analyst-years
330,000
variability. The impacts of the documented non-climatic changes on means and/or
0.5 Senior Climatologist-years
70,000
medians and on variances of data series will be statistically evaluated.
Some work has been accomplished on the effects of non-climatic changes. An
Total
$2,000,000
example is the time of observation bias in maximum and minimum temperature
records. Much more work, however, remains to be accomplished on, for example, the
STORMS, WAVES AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN A WARMING WORLD
effects of disparate sensor responses, instrument maintenance schedules, data quality
A RESEARCH PROPOSAL
control procedures, and assumptions upon which derived data are based. Climatic
homogeneity of combined data series as well as rationales for adjusting data depend
Bruce Hayden
on assumptions of randomness and/or systematic biases of non-climatic effects.
University of Virginia
Statistical analysis of these errors will be performed.
ACCESSIBILITY
To date, evaluations of and the debate about the 2xCO2 General Circulation Model
(GCM) global climate output statistics have been largely restricted aggregate global
To be useful, the compiled data and information about the data must be easily
surface temperatures and global patterns of surface temperatures. Temperature is but
accessible. The last part of the proposal is the design and building of a proposal is the
one of dozens of estimates of climate attributes that are estimated in GCM experiments.
design and building of a personal computer workstation network. Efficiency and user
Given that the effective trace gas (CO2 plus others radiatively active gases) changes
friendliness of possible system configurations will be investigated. One possible
since 1850 amounts to going half way to a CO2 doubling, we should already have
design is a central station that would hold all the data, process all applications, and
experienced measurable changes in the general circulation of the atmosphere.
then transmit requested information to slave stations. Another possible design is a
Changes in the frequency and geography of surface cyclones and anticyclones and
central data station with applications processed individually at surrounding stations
changes in the latitude and intensity of the jet stream aloft should already have taken
after transmittal of the data.
place.
Applications consist of geographic information system (raster and vector) and
The proposed work will evaluate the historical changes that have taken place in the
statistical software. Many software packages are commercially available. The design
1) climatology of surface cyclones and anticyclones of the Northern Hemisphere, 2)
of the network will be based on integrating hardware and software so that researchers
climatology of the jet stream, and 3) northward transport of eddy kinetic energy and
accessing the data will be able to efficiently perform spatial and temporal statistical
compare them to the changes indicated by 2xCO2 GCM climate simulations.
analyses as well as display results both pictorially and topographically.
STORM FREQUENCY, MAGNITUDE AND TRACK
Over the North American sector there have been large changes in the frequency of
cyclones (Hayden 1975, 1981: Hayden and Smith 1982; Reitan 1974 & 1979; and
Ziska and Smith 1980). Along the Atlantic Coast of North America the frequency
of storms since 1885 have been of the same order as the seasonal frequency cycle. In
general, storm frequency has historically increased during warming from 1900 to 1940*
and has declined in the subsequent cooling. This is counter to the expectations from
2xCO2 GCM simulations. In addition, the track of cyclones over eastern North
America has shifted south and eastward during this century. This also is counter to
21
trace gas warming indications. Doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide GCM experi-
the period before 1940. Multivariate analyses of the data fields will begin in the
ments project a northward displacement of locus of maximum eddy kinetic energy
second year. Two years of analytical work will be required to complete the proposed
released by storms and a reduction in the amount of kinetic energy released. This
work.
would indicate a northward contraction of the polar vortex and with it the main storm
tracks. The climate models also project warmer tropics and much warmer polar
REFERENCES
Bryson, R.A. and Lahey, J.F. 1958. The march of seasons. Final Report, Dept. of
regions (Hansen 1981a, 1981b, 1989). A reduced temperature gradient would
Meteorology, U. of Wisconsin, 41pp.
indicate a weakened and more northerly jet stream (Hayden 1977). Data exist to
expand these studies of cyclone frequency to the rest of the Northern Hemisphere.
Hansen, J., Johnson, D., Lacis, A., Lebedeff, S., Lee, P., Rind, D., and Russell, G. 1981.
Climate impact of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. Science, 213(4511):957-
SIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONES
966.
The GCM 2xCO2 experiments indicate that the subtropical anticyclones and the
attendant Hadley circulations displaced northward in a trace gas warmed world
Hansen, and Lacis, A.A. 1989. Sun and dust versus greenhouse gases: an assessment
(Mitchell, 1983 Manabe 1980). These anticyclones over the northern hemisphere
of their relative roles in global climate change. Nature 346:713-719.
oceans undergo a seasonal excursion of about 5 degree latitude during the last third
Hayden, B.P. 1975. Storm wave climates at Cape Hatteras, North Carolina: recent
of June (Bryson, 1958). While the record of the position and size of the subtropical
secular variations. Science, 190:981-983.
anticyclones exist in synoptic map form and in electronic files from 1899 to the
present, these data resources have not been studied to determine the secular
Hayden, B.P. and Dolan, R. 1977. Seasonal changes in the planetary wind system and
variations over the past 90 years. From these existing records we can test the notion
their relationship to the most severe coastal storms. Geoscience and Man XVIII:113-
that greenhouse warming has begun by asking the question, "Has the mean latitude
119.
position of the subtropical anticyclones shifted northward during the period of trace
Hayden, B.P. 1981. Secular variation in Atlantic coast extratropical cyclones.
gas increase?" From these records of the subtropical anticyclones, the GCM results
Monthly Weather Review, 109(1):159-167.
can be compared to the historical record and evaluated. We propose to do this work
for the subtropical anticyclones over the North Pacific and over the North Atlantic
Hayden, B.P. and Smith, W. 1982. Season-to-season cyclone frequency prediction.
oceans.
Monthly Weather Review, 110(4):239-253.
SIS OF THE SUBPOLAR ANTICYCLONES
Manabe, S., and Wetherald, R.T. 1980. On the distribution of climate change
Much of the warming indicated in 2xCO2 GCM simulations is found in the Arctic
resulting from an increase in the co2 content of the atmosphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 337:99-
and sub-Arctic. Mitchell (1983) indicates that the "polar cell" element of circumpolar
118.
circulations should be displaced northward in a trace gas warmed world. While
Mitchell, J.F.B. 1983. The seasonal response of a general circulation model to
Trenberth (1990) has studied the subpolar anticyclones over historical times and
changes in co2 and sea temperatures. Quart. J. R. Met. Soc., 109:113-152.
compared them to GCM results and found no correspondence, similar work on the
subpolar anticyclones remains to be done. GCM simulations also indicate that winter
Reitan, C.H. 1974. Frequencies of cyclones and cyclogenesis for North America,
season anticyclones over central Asia and over the north American arctic and
1951-1970. Monthly Weather Review, 102(12):861-868.
subarctic are diminished in intensity while the cyclones are increased in intensity and
Reitan, C.H. 1979. Trends in the frequencies of cyclone activity over North
the temperatures of the air masses produced in the anticyclones are said to more
America. Monthly Weather Review, 107(12):1684-1688.
moderate in temperatures as a result of greenhouse warming (Kalkstein 1990).
Pressure field records and surface synoptic charts are available from 1899 and the
Tren berth, K.E. 1990. Recent observed interdecadal climate changes in the
secular history of these major features of the general circulation of the atmosphere
Norhtern Hemisphere. Bul. Am. Met. Soc., 71:988-993.
have not been studied to date.
Washington, W.M. and Meehl, G.A. 1989. Climate sensitivity due to increased CO2:
RCH SCHEDULE
experiments with a coupled atmosphere and ocean general circulation model. Climate
Many of the records required to complete the proposed work exist in paper copy,
Dynamics, 1:1-38.
synoptic weather chart form. The extraction of the needed data from 90 years of
Zishka, K.M. and Smith, P.J. 1980. The climatology of cyclones and anticyclones
charts (32,850 maps) is a manpower intensive activity. Much of the first year's work
over North America and surrounding ocean environs for January and July, 1950-
will involve data extraction from maps and charts. In addition, existing electronic
1977. Monthly Weather Review, 108(4):387-401.
files of daily surface pressure data for the Northern Hemisphere will be used.
However, care must be used with this data as the data extraction procedure for the
period 1899-1940 is different from the period 1940-1990. Maximum and minimum
pressure values for half of the Northern Hemisphere data points have small errors for
RCH BUDGET*
1991-92
1992-93
1993-94
Total
riodically assessed the growth rates of the trees via a number of different measures-
trunk cross-sectional areas, leaf numbers, trunk and branch volumes, root density
P.I. Summer Salary
23000
24000
25000
72000
2 Doctoral Students
distributions, fruit numbers, leaf net photosynthesis and starch production rates-and
25000
25000
25000
75000
Student assistants
in every category investigated, we have found the CO2-enriched trees to be between
4000
3000
3000
10000
Services
two and three times as productive as the ambient-treatment trees (Idso and Kimball,
3000
3000
3000
9000
Equipment
1991; Idso et al., 1991a,b).
20000
o
0
20000
Publication Costs
2000
3000
5000
10000
The significance of this finding is illuminated by the study of Marland (1988), who
Travel
3000
4000
4000
11000
concluded that a doubling of the mean annual volume increment of the world's
Subtotals
existing closed forests would be sufficient to remove CO2 from the atmosphere at a rate
80000
62000
65000
227000
Overhead
roughly equivalent to current fossil-fuel burning releases. Clearly, if the world's other
48000
37200
39000
124200
Total Costs
tree species react to CO2 enrichment as sour orange trees do, such a state of biospheric
128000
99200
104000
351200
vigor will be achieved sometime in the coming century. And as Marland has further
*This budget is a draft budget and not an official budget of the University of Virginia
noted, maintaining such conditions for only 18-26 years would "return to the
biosphere all of the carbon that has been released over the last 100 to 200 years."
Hence, the problem of earth's rapidly rising atmospheric CO2 concentration may hold
within it the seeds of its own solution, if other trees behave similarly to the orange trees
ATMOSPHERIC CO2 SEQUESTERING BY TREES: A LONG-TERM
we have studied and if the tremendous CO2-induced growth enhancement we have
FIELD EXPERIMENT
documented continues to be maintained over the life of the trees and is not reduced
by environmental stresses related to rising temperatures, drought, and nutrient
Sherwood Idso
deficiencies.
Agricultural Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture
EXPERIMENT
We propose to shed more light on the above issues by conducting a new long-term
ROUND
experiment on a different, but as yet unspecified, tree species at the Maricopa
Earth's atmospheric CO2 concentration has been rising steadily since the inception
Agricultural Center (MAC) located 30 miles south of Phoenix. This facility is
of the Industrial Revolution, due primarily, it is believed, to mankind's increasing
operated by the University of Arizona and has been suggested as a future site of the
numbers and their expanding usage of energy derived from coal, gas and oil. A major
U.S. Water Conservation Laboratory and the Western Cotton Research Laboratory
concern arising out of this phenomenon is the possibility of CO2-induced greenhouse
by the USDA's Agriculutural Research Service, which is determined to develop
warming; while a major benefit could be a significant stimulation of the biosphere due
MAC into a world-class agricultural research center.
to the aerial fertilization effect of atmospheric CO2 enrichment (Idso, 1989).
Whereas our on-going experiment is looking at CO2 enrichment effects under con-
Linking these two phenomena is the possibility that the latter effect may mitigate the
ditions of adequate water and nutrients and current climate characteristics, the
former by removing CO2 from the air at a rate that increases with atmospheric CO2
proposed experiment will add water, nutrients, and temperature as additional vari-
concentration, such that the air's CO2 content may ultimately be stabilized at a level
ables. Hence, where we are currently studying 8 trees (4 ambient and 4 CO2-en-
that would not be too climatically disruptive. Hence, it is of paramount importance
riched), we will need to study 64 trees in the new experiment to adequately determine
to obtain reliable information on the long-term response of trees to atmospheric CO2
the effects of these other stresses (67% of adequate water, no addition of nutrients, and
enrichment, as they represent the terrestrial biosphere's primary means of sequestering
temperatures 3°C above ambient). The water treatments will be imposed by
carbon (Sedjo, 1989).
differential irrigation, the nutrient treatments by differential applications of fertilizers,
In almost all tree experiments conducted to date, however, there have been a number
and the temperature treatment by installing heaters in the air supply systems that
of serious deficiencies. In the words of Jarvis (1989), "the experiments (have)
service the chambers.
virtually all(been) short term (less than twelve months) on very young trees that are
Each chamber will enclose a 5m x 5m area and have a variable height that will increase
often pot-bound, with growth restricted by the lack of active sinks in nutrient-
with tree growth. Initially, 5 trees will be planted in each chamber: a primary tree in
deficient condition." Hence, as he continues, "there is considerable need for long-
the center and 4 secondary trees in each corner. The secondary trees will be
term experiments in which growth is not artificially restricted."
destructively harvested at six-month intervals, following the start of CO2 enrichment
We are conducting one such experiment at Phoenix, Arizona. Since November of
on either 1 April or 1 October. This will allow us to calibrate trunk cross-sectional
1987, we have been continuously enriching two clear-plastic-wall open-top cham-
areas with total biomass, so that subsequent biomass development can be estimated.
bers enclosing four sour orange (Citrus aurantium) trees planted directly into the
from the readily measured trunk diameter. It will also allow us to clearly define the
ground as small seedlings with an extra 300 parts per million (ppm) of CO2, while four
effects of CO2 enrichment throughout the cool and warm parts of the year and add to
similar-aged trees have been grown in non-CO2-enriched chambers. We have pe-
the richness of the temperature aspect of the study. Other measurements will be basically
identical to those of our current experiment.
25
No new scientific staff is required for this experiment. However, there will probably
be many cooperators. In the case of the free-air carbon dioxide enrichment study of
Heating
272,000
Labor to maintain enrichment
cotton that is currently being conducted at MAC, for example, there are over two
dozen cooperating scientists from four different USDA locations and five other
apparatus
60,000
Supplies and maintenance
100,000
institutions participating in the research. Our new study would probably attract even
Total
$1,110,000
more collaborators. Each of them would cover their own costs, however, thereby
requested. greatly increasing the scientific return on each of the research dollars herein
III. Technicians to collect plant response data
Ten at $25,000 per year
250,000
ERENCES
Tempe, AZ. 292 p.
Idso, S.B. 1989. Carbon Dioxide and Global Change: Earth in Transition. IBR Press,
IV. Summary
Initial Costs
$392,000
Idso, S.B. and B.A. Kimball. 1991. Effects of two and a half years of atmospheric CO2
5 years at $1,360,000 per year
$6,800,000
enrichment on the root density distribution of three-year-old sour orange trees.
5-year total cost
$7,192,000
Agric. For. Meteorol., in press.
Personnel:
Institution:
Idso, S.B., B.A. Kimball, and S.G. Allen. 1991a. CO2 enrichment of sour
Sherwood B. Idso
U.S. Water Conservation Laboratory
Bruce A. Kimball
4331 E. Broadway Road, Phoenix, AZ 85040
trees: two-and-a-half years into a long-term experiment. Plant Cell Environ., in orange press.
(602) 379-4356
Idso, S.B., B.A. Kimball, and S.G. Allen. 1991b. Net photosynthesis of sour
For. Meteorol., in press.
trees maintained in atmospheres of ambient and elevated CO2 concentration. orange Agric.
IMPACT OF INDUSTRIAL AEROSOLS ON THE SURFACE RADIATION
BUDGET
Jarvis, P.G. 1989. Atmospheric carbon dioxide and forests. Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc.
Lond. 324B:369-392.
George Kukla
Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory of Columbia University
Marland, G. 1988. The Prospect of Solving the CO2 Problem through Global Reforesta-
David A. Robinson
tion. U.S. Dept. Energy, Washington, DC. 66 p.
Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey
Sedjo, R.A. 1989. Forests to offset the greenhouse effect. J. Forestry 87(7):12-15.
Andrew A. Lacis
Goddard Institute for Space Studies
ET
I. Initial Costs
William Rossow
Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Utilities
10,000
Trailer
30,000
It is generally accepted that clouds are among the most influential variables in the
CO2 Analyzers
climate system, despite remaining one of its least understood components. Spatia
18,000
Valves, Flow Meters, Pumps,
and temporal variations in cloud distribution and composition play a major role it
Chamber materials, Blowers
global climate change. Because of limited knowledge on cloud behavior, differing
64,000
CO2 Installation
parameterizations of cloud related feedbacks in general circulation models (GCM
20,000
Labor
lead to major differences in the simulation of regional and global climate changes (e.g
200,000
Miscellaneous
Gates, 1988; Schlesinger, 1985; Coakley et al., 1983; Gutowski et al., 1988). Al
50,000
Total
$392,000
cloud-related processes remain in urgent need of further investigation and thei
representation in GCMs needs substantial improvement.
II. Annual Operating Costs
It is known that the optical properties of clouds, as well as of the clear atmosphere, ar
Land
8,000
to a large degree modified by tropospheric aerosols. Over large areas of the Northern
Laboratory
14,000
Hemisphere these aerosols are of man-made origin and significantly influence th
CO2
560,000
radiative environment (Twomey, 1977). Industrial aerosols in the lower tropospher
Electricity for blowers
96,000
have a large areal extent, not only over land (Husar and Paterson, 1980; Alkezween
2
and Busness, 1984), but also over parts of the ocean (Coakley et al., 1987). Although
and from pristine windy to highly-polluted stagnant. Each air mass has a unique
their largest concentration is in the lowest 3 kilometers of the atmosphere, where they
aerosol signature which influences clouds and the surface radiative environment.
are regularly washed out by rain (Henmi and Reiter, 1978), a sizeable-fraction reaches
The network will enable: (1) expansion of local radiation results to the size of a typical
the tropopause (Lyons, 1980) and is transported to the Arctic, where they concen-
GCM grid, (2) incorporation of the regionally-representative measured parameters in
trate as Arctic haze (Chung, 1978; Rahn et al., 1977). The most effective way in
a GCM, (3) comparison with information obtained from the relatively unpolluted
which industrial aerosols may influence climate is in the form of cloud concentration
ARM site, and other unpolluted locals, (4) comparison of the collected information
nuclei. This results in increases in cloud optical thickness and albedo (Twomey et al.,
with satellite measurements, and (5) assessments of the long-term radiative impact of
1984). Aerosol impacts on surface temperature may vary in intensity and sign,
the pollutants.
although most evidence points toward cooling. Impacts vary as a function of the
The satellite investigation will include validating the International Satellite Cloud
composition and size of the particles, atmospheric humidity, physical properties of the
Climatology Program (ISCCP) sky condition and surface radiation algorithyms for
clouds, the radiative characteristics of the underlying surface and the height of any
clear sky under a variety of aerosol loadings. This is an initial step in the eventual
inversions (Bolin and Charlson, 1976).
quantification of the global distribution of industrial aerosols using satellite data.
There are strong indications that sulphate-based industrial aerosols are concentrated
Ground truth from the New York Metropolitan field work and satellite data from the
in areas of high SO2 emissions (Environmental Research and Technology, 1983;
ISCCP global archive at GISS will be employed in the validation effort. The climatic
Winchester, 1980) and that these are warming at a slower rate than the rest of the
impact of industrial aerosols will be tested using the GISS GCM. Results of aerosol
hemisphere (Cess, unpublished; Karl, etal., unpublished). Global SO2 emissions have
impacts on the surface radiation budget from the field program will be employed in
doubled every 20 years since the 1940's, a trend which is expected to continue
model parameterization.
(Hameed and Dignon, 1988; Dignon and Hameed, 1989).
OBJECTIVES
1) Characterize the surface radiative environment with clear and cloudy skies over an
Observational studies are needed ultimately understand aerosol interactions with
industrialized region under a variety of aerosol loadings.
clouds and with surface radiation fields, and to assess their combined impact on
2) Validate the ISCCP sky condition and surface radiation algorithyms for clear skies
climate ant their potential role in global change. Satellite, aircraft, and surface
under a variety of aerosol loadings.
observations will have to be linked to assess the impact on a global scale.
3) Assess industrial aerosol impacts on global climate using the GISS GCM.
The DOE-sponsored study of Gutowski et al. (1988) found that large variations and
deficiencies exist in parameterization of the meteorological physics of regional
FIELD MEASUREMENTS
surface energy fluxes. These variations are strongly expressed in the presence of
)L-DGO Radiation Station
clouds. None of the models compared in the 1987 study took time-related variations
of tropospheric aerosols into account. Had they done so, even large deferences in
Downwelling shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) irradiances have been continu-
model simulations would likely have resulted.
ously measured at Palisades, NY since 1987 as a part of the cirrus-oriented extended
time observations in the First ISCCP Regional Experiment. This includes observations
It is clear that a reliable projection of future climate must take into account the
of hemispheric, spectral and diffuse broad band fluxes in the SW, visible (VIS) and
potential mitigating influence of industrial aerosols on greenhouse warming. This
near infrared (NIR) and hemispheric irradiance in the LW. Temperature, humidity.
will first require learning more about the impact industrial aerosols have on the
and wind data were simultaneously collected at an automated weather station.
surface radiation budget, defining the spatial coverage of industrial aerosols using
Upfacing radiometers at Palisades are mounted on a rooftop approximately 120 m
ground and satellite data, and modelling the impact of industrial aerosols on global
above sea level and 15 m above the ground. The site is not shaded by topography and
climate using GCMs, with input parameterized using field data.
only a few groves of trees within 5° of the horizon obscure a full hemispheric view of
We propose to address each of the tasks defined above in a cooperative effort amongst
the sky. More detail on the Palisades program is provided in Robinson et al. (1988
scientists at Lamont (L-DGO), Rutgers University (RU) and the Goddard Institute
and 1989). The data analysis was in part done at Rutgers University.
for Space Studies (GISS).
A comparison of the surface radiative environment at Palisades in the presence of
Local and regional field programs will take place in the New York Metropolitan area,
cirrus and clear skies showed cirrus to have a larger impact on the surface radiativo
utilizing solar and terrestrial data which has been gathered at Palisades, NY for the
environment in winter than in summer. The presence of cirrus clouds in both seasons
past 4 years and which will continue to be collected. In addition, during the project
resulted in a decrease in atmospheric transmissivity of approximately 0.03 compare
the video imagery of sky conditions will be made and measurements taken of SO2 and
with clear skies. This reduction was noted at solar zenith angles less than 80°. Mid.
other atmospheric constituents from Palisades and numerous other metropolitan sites
day transmissivities under cirrus and clear skies were almost identical in winter and
(Fig. 1).
summer, despite a 30° difference in zenith angle. Cirrus transmissivities were about
0.06 higher in winter than in summer at similar zenith angles (Fig. 2). The seasona
The metropolitan area, and Palisades in particular, is ideally suited for the project,
differences are primarily a result of variations in the tropospheric aerosols, ozone an
being situated in a region subject to air masses varying from moist marine to dry arctic,
water vapor. Downwelling longwave irradiances were about 30 W/m 2 higher for
Cited cirrus episodes and 15 W/m higher in summer cases compared with clear-sky winter
WORK PLAN
The proposed work plan is summarized in Figure 2 and discussed below.
results are based on one year of data and only for cases where horizontal episodes.
than visibility 16 at the surface exceeded 16 km. The frequent cases where visibility
A) Irradiance data will continue to be gathered at Palisades. Earlier activities
results km while skies remained clear have yet to be studied in detail. was less
associated with FIRE have resulted in the implementation of first-rate, well-cali-
with indicate large differences in the clear-sky radiative environment Preliminary correlating
brated radiation observation procedures and the development of software to standardize
visibility and varying concentrations of tropospheric aerosols.
and reduce the raw data and calculate radiance-derived variables. Inter-calibrated
observational data and derived products can thus become available for analysis and
b) New York and New Jersey air pollution monitoring networks.
dissemination to other ARM participants within a relatively short time after collec-
The New York State Department of Environment Protection Division of Environ-
tion.
in mental the Quality (NJDEP, 1989) maintain dense networks which monitor air
The following irradiances will be observed:
greater NY metropolitan area. Corresponding state offices have quality been
1) full hemispheric downwelling SW (0.28-2.80 µm)
contacted, and are willing to make network data available for the proposed project.
2) diffuse downwelling SW
3) full hemispheric downwelling near-infrared (NIR) (0.70-2.80 µm)
The sampling network in the metropolitan is shown in Figure 1. A few of the
4) diffuse downwelling NIR
enable are equipped with broad band radiometers. The network is sufficiently dense stations
5) hemispheric downwelling LW (4.0-50.0 µm)
the computation of regional averages of the pollutants which in be to
6) hemispheric upwelling LW
monitoring stations in the area.
compared with the radiation time series from Palisades and additional turn radiation can
7) hemispheric SW
Measurements will be made using Epply Precision Spectral Pyranometers (measuring
consists sampling, and 3) precipitation sampling. The Continuous Air Monitoring network
The New Jersey program involves: 1) continuous air monitoring, 2) particulate
SW) and Epply Pyrgeomters (measuring LW). A Campbell CR-21 digital recorder
will record data as one minute averages of ten second samples. These data subsequently
of 26 automated remote stations which transmit data around-the-clock
will be transferred to cassette tape and later dumped to 45Mb removal disks or 9-track
centralized computer facility in Trenton. The computer interrogates the field to a
tape using a Campbell C-20 cassette interface. Analyses will be performed on
network monitors once each minute to retrieve the data. Pollutants monitored
Macintosh SE and II computers. The radiometers will be periodically calibrated at the
include: sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide, ozone, nitrogen oxides, by this
Eppley Laboratory and with other ARM instruments.
relative shade, and meteorological parameters such as wind speed/direction, temperature, smoke
humidity, solar radiation, and barometric pressure.
A number of variables will be derived from the measured irradiances including: (1)
visible irradiance, (2) visible diffuse irradiance, (3) atmospheric transmissivity, (4)
The 24-hour Particulate Sampling Network consists of 32 remote sites. Each sampler
optical depth in the SW, (5) surface albedo over representative surfaces, and (6) net
in a 1988 sample at least once every six days. A total of 28 samplers collects
radiation over representative surfaces. The latter two will require an expansion of the
2 for total suspended particulates, 23 samplers for inhalable were operated
rooftop measurements to locations across the metropolitan area under a variety of
fractions. dichotomous samplers to divide the inhalable particulates into particulates, fine and and
atmospheric conditions.
of lead, Subsequent laboratory analyses include determinations of coarse
matter. other trace metals, benzo(a)pyrene, sulfates, nitrates and extractable concentrations organic
B) Videotapes of sky hemisphere will be taken at selected intervals including the times
of NOAA polar orbiter, Landsat and Spot overpasses. These will provide detailed
documentation of clear skies, cloud type and percent cloud cover. We will use the
retrieved The Precipitation Sampling Network has three sites. Rain water samples
system developed and pilot tested by Whitlock and Purgold (1989). The videotapes
either on a weekly basis or after each storm event. Laboratory are
will be processed at the Rutgers remote sensing center using analytical techniques
tions provide of information on the observed pH and conductivity along with the analyses
developed in the FIRE Project (Fig. 4).
ammonium sulfate, ions. nitrate, chloride, calcium, magnesium, potassium, sodium concentra- and
In addition, horizontal visibility will be measured by taking photographs from the
rooftop station. Visibility will be calculated by measuring the contrast between
The New York State monitoring system is similar. Sulfur dioxide and sulfates
targets lying along a line from the station to hilltops over 20 km distant using
intervals. measured at 26 locations throughout the state. Particulates are sampled in six day are
computerized image processing techniques.
C) Sulphur dioxide concentrations in the lower troposphere will be continually
measured at the Palisades station using a pulsed florescent analyser. This instrument
is similar to those used by the NJ Department of Environmental Protection.
We also consider the acquisition of the Brown Automated Spectrophotometer, which
measures the total concentration of SOx and NOx in the atmospheric column.
Industrial Aerosol Impacts on Global Climate: GCM studies
have To address the potential impact industrial aerosols may be having or in the future
Gutowski, W.J., D.S. Gutzler, D. Portman, and W.C. Wang, 1988. Surface Energy
Balance of the Three General Circulation Models: Current Climate and Response to
on global and regional climate, three full-scale runs of the may GISS GCM
Increasing Atmospheric CO2. Technical Report DOE/ER/60422-H1, U.S. Dept. of
aerosol planned. A critical component to all runs will be the improved parameterization are of
Energy, Washington DC.
impacts on the surface radiative environment, provided it results from the NY
Metropolitan field studies. Model runs will include:
Hameed. S., and J. Dignon, 1988. Changes in the geographical distribution of global
1) A clean air version (0 x SO2), which will assume a zero loading of industrial
emissions of NOx and SOx from fossil fuel combustion between 1966 and 1980.
tropospheric aerosols over the globe.
Atmos. Environ. 22: 441.
2) A realistic current tropospheric aerosol loading version (1 X SO2, 1 CO2).
Here, the concentration of tropospheric aerosols will be a function of the x
Henmi, T., and E.R. Reiter, 1978. Regional residence time of sulfur dioxide over the
SO2 (1988). per unit area loading derived from the compilation of Hameed and Dignon mean
eastern United States. Atmos. Environ. 12: 1489-1495.
3) A large-range model (8 x SO2, 2 x CO2) which will assess the
Lyons, W.A., 1980. Evidence of transport of hazy air masses from satellite imagery.
climate based impact of industrial aerosols by the middle of the 21st expected This
Annals New York Academy of Sciences, 400-417.
on the assumption that SO2 emissions will continue to double century. 20 is
years, as they have since World War II, and the CO2 will double by 2050. every
New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection, 1989. 1988 Air Quality
Report.
NCES
Alkezweeney, A.J., and K.M. Busness, 1984. Observation of aerosol chemical
New York State Department of Environmental Conservation, 1989. New York State
Science composition and acidity in northwest and southeast regions of the United States. The
of the Total Environment. 39: 125-133.
Air Quality Report Ambient Air Monitoring System. DAR-89-1. 199pp.
shortwave Bolin, B, and R.J. Charlson, 1976. On the role of the tropospheric sulfur cycle in the
Rahn, K.A., R. D. Borys, and G.E. Shaw, 1977. The Asian source of Arctic haze
bands. Nature 268: 713-715.
radiative climate of the earth. Ambio. 5: 47-54.
Robinson, D.A., G. Kukla, and A. Frei, 1988. FIRE extended time/limited area
Chung, Y.S., 1978. The distribution of atmospheric sulfates in Canada
observations at Palisades, New York. Proceedings of the FIRE Science Team
relationship 1471-1480. to long-range transport of air pollutants. Atmospheric Environment and 12: its
Workshop, Vail CO, 367-372.
, 1989. Impact of cirrus on the surface radiative environment at the FIRE
aerosols Coakley, J.A., Cess, R.D., and F. B. Yurevich, 1983: The effect of
ETLA Palisades, NY site. Proceedings of the FIRE Science Team Workshop,
Atmospheric Sciences 40: 116-138.
on the earth radiation budget: A parameterization for climate tropospheric models. J.
Monterey, CA.
Schlesinger, W.H., 1985. The formation of caliche in soils of the Mojave Desert,
on reflectivity. Science 237: 1020-1022.
Coakley, cloud J.A., R. L. Bernstein, and P.A. Durkee, 1987. Effect of ship-stack effluents
California. Geochim et Comoch. Acta, 49: 57-66.
Twomey, S.A., 1977. Atmospheric Aerosols. Developments in Atmospheric
1860 Dignon, J., and S. Hameed, 1989. Global emissions of nitrogen and sulfur oxides from
Science 7. Elsevier, The Netherlands.
to 1980. APCA Journal 39: 180-186.
Twomey, S.A., M. Pipegrass, and T.L. Wolfe, 1984. An assessment of the impact of
Environmental Research and Technology, 1983. Volumes 2 and 3. The Sulfate
pollution on global cloud albedo. Tellus 36B: 357-366.
Regional Experiment: Report of Findings.
Whitlock, C.H., and C.G. Purgold, 1989. A VCR imaging system for cloud
Gates, W.L., 1988. Status of global model simulation of climatic effects of increased
experiments. Presented at the FIRE Science Team Meeting, Monterey, California,
Group atmospheric carbon dioxide. Report of the Fourth Session of the CAS/JSC Working
1989.
on Numerical Experimentation, WMO/TD No. 278, Appendix B, 7pp.
Winchester, J.W., 1980. Sulfate formation in urban plumes. Annals New York
Academy of Sciences, 297-308.
BUDGET
Estimated Cost for three year project: $422,834
RE 1:
FIGURE 1 CONT'D.
N- Jersey Stations
S- Sulphates
WESTCHESTER
P- Particulates
ROCKLAND
Suspended Particles
I- Inhalable Particles
ROCKLAND
PALISADES
N-NOx
RIDGWOOD PARK I
SUFFOLK
P A
PALISADES
NASSAU
Py
HACKENSACK S
*
U
P
CLIFTON I
RADIATION
FORT LEE I
CCNY
P.S.2
CHESTER S,N
P**
I.S.155
CLIFFSIDE PARK
N
S,P,N
NEWARK
*P
JERSEY CITY S,P
P.S.59
S,I,
ALEXANDER'S
ELIZABETH
BAYONNE S,I,P,N
MIDTOWN
S,
P.S.112
/
45th ST.
ELIZABETH
BOWERY
FLEMINGTON
LAB S,N
SAVINGS
*
SOLAR FLUX
QUEENS
BELLEVIEW
COLLEGE
MABEL DEAN
PX
PERTH AMBOY S,I
BEACON H.S.
P
GREENPOINT
CANAL ST.
WPC PLANT
WORLD
BROOKLYN TRANSIT
TRADE
CTR.
P.S.321
N
*
TRENTON S,I,P
P.S.314
P
PORT RICHMOND
*
BURLINGTON S
SHEEPSHEAD
P.S.26
SUSAN
BAY H.S.
WAGNER H.S.
ARTHUR
KILL
(THA)
New York Monitoring Sites
Continuous (Including hi-vol and pm10)-12
Continuous Traffic Mon. (Carbon Monoxide)-4
Manual (hi-vol - including pm10)-7
35
airport
meteorological
observations
distribution to
comparison with
other ARM &
Canadian
observations
standardize & reduce
raw data, & calculate
derived variables
fellow ARM
participants
NJ & NY
air quality
observations
GISS GCM
model runs
& analysis
PRESENTATION &
PUBLICATION
OF RESULTS
local & regional
air mass/aerosol
analyses
Palisades
observations
processor
final data
products
Image
analyses
ISCCP
algorithm
validation
Proposed work plan for the L-DGO/RU/GISS ARM Project
FIGURE 3:
Winter (1987)
0.75
300
transmissivity
Bold lines show clear mean, +1 SD, -1 SD
0.65
W/m^2
Circles show cirrus mean, +1 SD, -1 SD
200
0.55
summer
error bars show range within one SD
0.45
100
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
za
za
400
0.85
Clear (1987)
winter
0.75
300
transmissivity
0.65
W/m^2
Summer (1987)
summer
200
0.55
Bold lines show clear mean, +1 SD, -1 SD
error bars show range within one SD;
Circles show cirrus mean, +1 SD, -1 SD
circles and dots show min/max values
100
0.45
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
za
za
Summer versus winter transmissivities with cirrus (top) or clear
Downwelling longwave irradiance with cirrus and clear skies in
(bottom) skies present. Data are plotted by solar zenith angle (za).
winter (top) and summer (bottom). Data from 1987 daylight
hours are plotted by solar zenith angle.
GURE 2:
MITIGATION OF THE CO2 WARMING BY NATURAL CLIMATE
URE 4:
TIME-LAPSE CLOUD CAMERA SETUP
CHANGES IN THE ENDING INTERGLACIAL
George Kukla
Columbia University
Enclosure
Camera
ABSTRACT
It is proposed to analyze in detail the paleoclimatic records of several past interglacial
to glacial transitions and assess to what degree the periodic natural climate shifts in
the declining phase of the current interglacial can mitigate the CO2 warming.
Supports
The study will take advantage of the international workshop organized by the author
of the proposal in Spain in April 1991, dealing with a similar subject.
We plan to assemble an international team of experts on past climates, critically
analyze available evidence, and use it first for the validation of the new generation of
coupled ocean-atmosphere circulation models and, second, for the prediction of the
18 Inches
combined impact of natural variability and increased greenhouse gases on the near-
future climates.
We expect to demonstrate the combined impact will be considerably different and of
lesser magnitude than the predictions based on the 2 X CO2 equilibrium climate models.
Dome-X-26
AC Power
OBJECTIVE
To analyze paleoclimatic records and assess to what degree the climatic impact of
Adapter
rising carbon dioxide can be mitigated by natural climate shifts in the final phase of
the current interglacial.
26 Inches
SONY
OMA-D1
RATIONALE
The concentration of greenhouse gases is rapidly increasing. Future climates will
differ from today as a result of combined man-made and natural forcing of the climate
system.
Seasonal and geographic distribution of current temperature trends disagrees with the
model predicted pattern of the warming impact (Plantico et al., 1990) of the
increasing CO2 (Fig. 1). In particular the North Atlantic and North Pacific cooled
PANASONIC
in the last 50 years while most models expected warming (Kukla et al., submitted).
Most climatologists assume that this is due to the natural climate variability which
AC-6050
is still higher than the CO2 signal.
:
It is known that on the geologic time scales the planet is now approaching a transition
into a glacial stage. Alternations between the interglacials and the glacials are the
Time-Lapse
most prominent feature of past natural climate variability. During glacials the lands
Monitor
Recorder
surrounding the North Atlantic cooled and became covered by ice. It has been
convincingly demonstrated that the transitions from interglacials into glacials
occurred repeatedly and in close correlation with the specific configuration of the
Planned sky monitoring video system.
earth orbit around the sun which matches the present one (Follieri et al., 1988; Kukla
et al., 1981).
It is largely believed that the gross climate changes are progressing at such a slow rate
that they are irrelevant on the time scale of centuries. This however, is a misconception.
In the high and middle northern latitudes the shifts occurred in several steps, each
marked by an accelerated environmental change lasting no more than a few centuries
39
or possibly decades, and separated from the next step by two or more millenia of stable
WORK PLAN
The bulk of the work will consist of the critical reanalyses of the already available data,
environments (de Beaulieu and Reille, 1989; Woillard, 1979; Kukla, 1980). It is this
assessment of their accuracy and limitations, reinterpretation of the records, and
stepwise progression which is the most puzzling attribute of the past climate variations
compilation of the results on a global scale.
and which makes the natural climate variability a potentially important element in
Selected intervals in the key records will be sampled in more detail so as to obtain a
the prediction of the next century climates.
decadal resolution where possible.
The mechanism of the glacial/interglacial changes remains unexplained. General
Since many of the best pollen cores were studied by foreign scientists, and the cores
circulation models, used for the prediction of the CO2 impact, have been as of yet
are located overseas, consulting arrangements will have to be made to secure the
unable to simulate the transition when forced by the modified insolation. It is partly
necessary cooperations.
for that reason that some climatologists question whether the present generation of
the general circulation models is sufficiently accurate to be trusted in the prediction
Additional details from the deep sea sediments will be obtained either directly by the
of the next century CO2 enriched climates (Rind et al., 1989). The trust in the
Lamont team from the cores stored at the Observatory or by the external researchers
predictions is being further undermined by the results of the first few coupled ocean-
on a per sample charge basis.
atmosphere circulation models which offer the most complete representations of
Workshops of the team members are planned in the second and the third year of the
climate systems developed to date. All of these models show potential CO2 impact
project.
on the deep water formation and on the thermohaline oceanic circulation in general.
According to the models, the deep water production rate decreases under increasing
CO2 concentrations (Stouffer et al., 1988; Washington and Meehl, 1989; Mikolajew-
icz et al., 1990). Such process, if real, would lead to considerable reduction of the CO2
warming in the high latitudes. A similar mechanism is also the prime suspect in the
search for the causes of the natural interglacial to glacial transitions (Rind et al., 1986;
Broecker and Denton, in print).
Since directly obtained observations of deep water circulation are sporadic and
inaccurate, it is highly advisable to expand them by paleoclimatic data, which cover
both the land and the ocean during long intervals with variable environments at times
grossly different from the present ones. Preliminary evaluation of these data indicates
that the interglacials were characterized by vigorous deep water formation in the high
latitudes, whereas the slowdown and/or cessation of the deep water formation was
associated with the glacial periods.
A great wealth of information was obtained in recent decades from paleoclimatic
records worldwide on the past natural climate variations. This includes both land and
the oceans. This information is priceless for validation of numerical global climate
models used for the prediction of CO2 impacts. In addition, since the past climate
changes were quasi-periodic, the information can be utilized independently in the
probability forecast of the likely course of natural climates (Kukla, 1988).
The importance and timeliness of research oriented toward the prediction of future
climate changes can not be overemphasized. In the last two years scientific gatherings
at highest governmental levels of several countries underlined the urgent need of such
research.
It is our intention to critically review and correlate existing paleoclimatic data from
environments of continuous deposition. We want to focus on the interglacials and
early glacials as the analogs of near future.
We also plan to investigate the relation of the past natural climate variability to
orbital configuration and corresponding insolation distribution in order to detect
those parts of the earth system which show the highest sensitivity to insolation
forcing.
41
FIGURE 1:
P
FIGURE 2:
a)
100
80
60
Probability (%)
40
20
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
b)
Time in 10³ Years into the Future
The accumulated probability (in %) of the occurrence of the five climate states
ranging from an interglacial to a full glacial plotted as a function of time elapsed
from a termination. Present day position (P) marked with an arrow. Data smoothed
by 1-2-1 weighting. Based on the Macedonian core, ODP 677, and the Xifeng I
Door
loess sequence. Interglacial in thin line, temperate interstadial in full, stadial
dashed amd glacial in heavy dashed line.
C
00000
0000
40020
our
Regression Slopes
o
(°C/100 yrs)
-0.5
-1.0
3xC02 vs. Winter
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
The following is the list of researchers expected to take part in the project:
Lawrence Mysak, University of McGill-Montreal, Centre for Climate and Global
Pollen and other land data:
Change Research, 805 Sherbrooke Street, NW, Montreal, Quebec H3A 2K6
Maria Follieri, Dipartimento Di Biologia Vegetale, Universita Degli Studi "La
Sapienza", P. le Aldo Moro, 5, 00185 Roma, Italy
Thomas Karl, Applied Climatology Branch, NOAA-NESDIS National Climatic
Data Center, Federal Building, Asheville, North Carolina 28801
T.A. Wijmstra, Hugo de Vries Laboratory, University of Amsterdam, Kruislaan 318,
Coupled ocean-atmosphere models:
1098 SM Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Suki Manabe, GFDL, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08540
Jacques-Louis de Beaulieu, Laboratoire de Botanique Historique et Palynologie, UA
1152 du CNRS, Faculte des Sciences et Techniques, St-Jerome, 13397 Marseille
Gerald Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307-3000
Cedex 13, France
Helmutt Muller, BGR, Stilleveg 2, D3 Hannover-Bucholz, Germany
EXPECTED RESULTS
Expected results of the study are as follows:
1) Probability forecast of natural climate developments during the next
Henry Hooghiemstra, Hugo de Vries-Laboratory, Department of Palynology and
century. Assessment of the degree to which these developments will mitigate
Paleo/Actuo Ecology, University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands
the CO2 impact.
2) A data base useful for the validation and improved parameterization of
Thomas Webb, III, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island 02912
coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Model estimate of the next century
climates as resulting from the combined impact of CO2 and natural processes
Ice records:
on the system.
3) Improved understanding of operational models of the climate system.
Jean Jouzel, Laboratory Glaciologie BP 96, 38402 St. Martin d'Meus, Cedex, France
PUBLICATION OF THE RESULTS
Jean Robert Petit, Laboratory Glaciologie BP 96, 38402 St. Martin d'Meus, Cedex,
The dissemination of the results will be tightly controlled in order to maintain the
France
current high credibility of the team members, to prevent unwarranted statements and
avoid overreaction of the media. All team members will be requested to circulate their
Ocean paleocirculation:
papers resulting from the project for internal review prior to publication. Such reports
Nick Shackleton, Godwin Laboratory, Free School Lane, Cambridge, CB2 3RS
will describe in detail the work done on individual sites and will be submitted to
England
corresponding specialized journals. Workshop proceedings will appear with execu-
tive summaries coedited by all participants and the brief summaries will be published
William Ruddiman, Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory, Palisades, N.Y. 10964
in the leading scientific journals with wide international distribution (Nature,
Science, etc.).
Laurent Labeyrie, Centre des Faibles Radioactivities, Laboratoire mixte CNRS-
CEA, P.C. 91190, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
REFERENCES
Broecker, W.S. and G. Denton. (in print). What drives glacial cycles?:
Jean-Claude Duplessy, Centre des Faibles Radioctivities, Laboratoire mixte CNRS-
CEA, 91198 GIF-Sur Yvette Cedex, France
De Beaulieu, J. L. and M. Reille. 1989. The transition from temperate phases to
stadials in the long upper Pleistocene sequence from Les Echets (France). Palaeogeo.
Palaceoclim. Palaeocol. 72: 147-159.
Wallace Broecker, Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory, Palisades, N.Y. 100964
Karen Luise Knudsen, Department of Micropaleontology, Institute of Georgia,
Follieri, M., D. Magri and L. Sadori. 1988. 250,000 year pollen record from Valle Di
University of Aarhus, DK-8000 Aarhus C, Denmark
Castiglione (Roma). Pollen et Spores. XXX (3-4): 329-356.
Current oceanic and atmospheric circulation:
Kukla, G. 1980. End of the last interglacieal: A predictive model of the future? Sr.
E.M. Van Zinderen Bakker and J.A. Coetzee (Ed.), Paleoecology of Africa and the
Kirk Bryan, GFDL, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08540
Surrounding Islands. A.A. Balkema, Rotterdam, 395-408.
Knut Aagaard, NOAA/PMEL, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Building 3, Seattle,
Kukla, G., A. Berger, R. Lotti and J. Brown. 1981. Orbital signature of interglacials.
Washington 98115-0070
Nature. 290: 295-300.
45
Palisades. probabilities. Prepared for the Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratory, Lamont,
and Kukla, G. 1990. Global climate change model. Natural climate variation: Data base BUDGET
Estimated cost for three year project: $497,499
(submitted). Kukla, G., T. Karl, R. Knight, G.A. Meehl, W.M. Washington, and J. Gavin.
Nature. Current temperature trends: Transient response to the CO2 increase?
PERSONNEL DEVELOPMENT IN CLIMATE-RELATED SCIENCES
Richard Lindzen
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
greenhouse Mikolajewicz, U., B.D. Santer and E. Maier-Reimer. 1990. Ocean response to
warming. Nature. 345: 589-593.
The most significant problem facing any proposed program to improve our under-
standing of climatic and other environmental issues is the shortage of well trained,
Plantico, the M.S., T.R. Karl, G. Kukla, and J. Gavin. 1990. Is recent climate
talented personnel. The problem has several aspects.
J. across United States related to rising levels of anthropogenic greenhouse change gase?
1) Science and technology are generally less popular among the best students.
Geophys. Res. 95: 16617-16637.
2) The problems involved in understanding the atmosphere and oceans are
among the very hardest and most challenging problems in all of science.
of Rind, cold D., North D. Peteet, W. Broecker, A. McIntyre and W. Ruddiman. 1989. The
3) Low status pertains to working in fields like meteorology and oceanography
Atlantic sea surface temperatures on climate: implications for impact the
-relative to working in traditional areas like mathematics and physics. This
Younger Dryas cooling (11-10K). Clim. Dyn. 1:3-33.
situation is institutionalized in places like the People Republic of China where
far higher exam scores are needed to enter physics and mathematics than to
the Rind, D., D. Peteet and G. Kukla. 1989. Can Milankovitch orbital variations
enter any of the Earth Sciences.
12851-12871. growth of ice sheets in a general circulation model? J. Geophys. Res. 94 initiate (D10):
The graduate program in Meteorology and Physical Oceanography at the Massachu-
setts Institute of Technology have long been regarded as the pre-eminent program in
climate Stouffer, R.J., S. Manabe and K. Bryan. 1989. Interhemispheric in
this area. Nevertheless, we have only 8 first year graduate students - most of whom
response to a gradual increase of atmospheric CO2. Nature. 342: asymmetry 660-662.
are from abroad. With rare exceptions, the students are not capable of dealing with
the most challenging problems. The increasing number of large research programs in
CO2: Washington, W.M. and G.A. Meehl. 1989. Climate sensitivity due
all aspects of the atmospheric and oceanic sciences is already suffering from personnel
Clim. experiments with a coupled atmosphere and ocean general circulation to increased model.
shortages, though this is sometimes disguised by the heavy emphasis on equipment
Dynamics. 4: 1-38.
over people. Indeed the job situation in the research sector is not impressive. If society
is serious about improving our understanding of the climate system, then this
558-562. Woillard, G.M. 1979. Abrupt end of last interglacial S.S. in NE France. Nature. 281:
personnel situation must be remedied.
An important step in remedying this situation involves recruiting the best available
minds into climate sciences. Towards this end, we propose the establishment of
Fig. 1.
fellowship programs which are sufficiently generous to be able to attract students who
librium a) The winter 2 X warming due to the 30% increase of CO2 as expected from the
might not otherwise choose these fields. A similar program sponsored by the Ford
period. Approximately comparable to the combined greenhouse forcing over the 1945-1986 (1989).
CO2 coupled ocean-atmosphere model of Washington and Meehl equi-
Foundation in the late 40s and early 60s was remarkably successful.
The present proposal is for the establishment of three such fellowships each year at
Circles proportional to the magnitude of warming.
M.I.T. Assuming graduate studies to last four years (this is actually about a year less
b) The CO2 current winter 1945-1986 linear surface temperature trends
than is average), it will take four years for the cost of the program to plateau (apart from
model expect of warming impact over the same time period in the equilibrium compared to the
inflationary increases). The fellowships will pay the student 10% more than standard
The full Washington and Meehl, 1989. (From Kukla et al., submitted climate
assistantships (M.I.T. sets this limit), and will provide each recipient with a fund of
the circles show cooling, the open circles show warming. Radius is to Nature.)
$7000 per year to support research and educational activities (books, supplies,
2.5 to °C/42 intensity years. of the trend. The largest circles show trends equal or proportional greater than
personal computers, attendance at meetings and workshops, etc.).
It goes without saying, that the ultimate attractiveness of any field will depend on the
Fig. 2.
employment opportunities for students completing their studies. There is little that
1990). Probability of the natural climate states during the next 130,000 years, (from Kukla,
individual universities can do in this regard; however, all research sponsors should be
Explained on the figure.
encouraged not to undertake large programs without provision for adequate personnel.
47
Salaries 8 Wages
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Year 6
Year 7
Year 8
Year 9
Year 10
10 Year Total
Yr 1:3 Fellows
Tuition
$21,200
$22,854
$24,636
$26,558
Stipend
$28,629
$15,048
$30,862
$33,270
$15,840
$35,865
$16,632
$38,865
$17,464
$41,678
Research & Education $7,000
$18,337
$19,254
$20,216
$7,000
$21,227
$7,000
$22,288
$7,000
$23,403
Expense
$7,000
$7,000
$7,000
$7,000
$7,000
$7,000
$43,248
$45,694
$48,268
$51,021
$53,966
$129,744
$57,116
$60,486
$64,092
$67,951
$72,081
$0
Year 2: 6 Fellows
$274,162
Year 3: 9 Fellows
$434,414
Year 4+: 12 Fellows
$612,257
$647,593
$685,392
$725,832
$769,102
$815,407
$864,968
Total Salary
$129,744
$274,162
$434,414
$612,257
$647,593
$685,392
$725,832
$769,102
$815,407
$864,968
$5,958,870
Employee Benefits*
$52,546
$111,035
$178,110
$254,087
$271,989
$291,292
$308,478
$326,868
$346,548
$367,612
$2,508,565
Total Salary
$182,290
$385,197
$612,523
$866,343
& Benefits
$919,582
$976,684
$1,034,310
$1,095,970
$1,161,956
$1,232,580
$8,467,435
Indirect Costs*
$104,817
$221,488
$370,577
$528,469
$565,543
$605,544
$641,272
$679,501
$720,412
$764,199
$5,201,834
TOTAL Required
$287,107
$606,685 $983,100 $1,394,813 $1,485,125 $1,582,228 $1,675,582 $1,775,471 $1,882,368 $1,996,779 $13,669,259
1. Tuition increase @ rate of 7.8% per year.
2. After year 4 Stipend increases 1.05 per year.
Employee Benefit Rates:
Overhead Rates
3. Stipend includes 10% allowance over MIT standard annual amount
Yrs 1-2:
.405
0.575
Yr. 3:
.41
0.605
Yr.4:
.415
0.61
Yr.5:
.42
0.615
Yrs 6-10:
.425
0.62
is real.
existent.
stratiform
clouds;
Richard Lindzen
the case of the moisture budget, convective adjustment acts to simply saturate the
contributions of deep cumulus convection to both the heat and moisture budgets. In
Schubert, 1974, Emanuel, 1990, Geleyn, et al, 1982). Both markedly distort the
inaccurate portrayals of the behavior of cumulonimbus convection (Arakawa and
the former is over twenty years old. Both have long been known to be grossly
adjustment, or 2) Kuo type schemes (Kuo, 1974). The latter is over 16 years old while
used by the models. These parameterizations are of two types: 1) convective
therefore, forced to examine the theoretical foundations of the parameterizations
boundary layer; however, in the upper troposphere, we have no observations. We are,
as temperature increases. Observationally and theoretically, this is correct for the
models use cumulus parameterizations which increase specific humidity at all levels
In present models, the positive water vapor feedback arises from the fact that these
magnified. The question we wish to deal with is whether the water vapor feedback
may be negative rather than positive. The response is then reduced rather than
the direct response to 2°C. As Mitchell, et al (1989) has shown, the cloud feedback
absence of the water vapor feedback, the remaining feedbacks cannot even amplify
misleading way of presenting things. It is clear, from the above equation, that in the
impression that water vapor is not important. This, however, is an egregiously
begins with the water vapor feedback -adding the others sequentially, one gets the
0.2, and 0.1 respectively. If one shows gain (or response) rather than feedback, and
the contributions of feedbacks from water vapor, clouds, and snow/ice are about 0.4,
wherefis the sum of all contributio to the feedback. In the GISS and GFDL models,
gain = 1
1-f
vapor. The response amplification due to feedbacks is given by an expression
response (2-5°C) to carbon dioxide, the most important feedback is due to water
Larger responses are due to positive feedbacks, and in all models predicting a large
existing large scale climate models to a doubling of carbon dioxide is only about 1°C.
Vis a vis climate, the situation is even more serious. The direct response of most
are considered totally unreliable, while measurements above 9 km are essentially non-
the ground. Unfortunately, current measurements of water vapor between 6 and 9 km
(1990), a molecule of water vapor at 8 km is about as important as 100 molecules near
importance in determining the temperature of the Earth. According to Arking
is water vapor in the upper troposphere (above 6 km) that is of primary radiative
and the heat is then carried to the upper troposphere by convection. As a result, it
surface does not cool primarily by radiation; rather, it cools mostly by evaporation,
only
about
10
Wm
is
due
to
carbon
dioxide.
Moreover,
Wm. Of this amount, 290 Wm is due to water vapor and about 40 Wm is due to
vapor. The downward flux of infrared radiation at the Earth's surface is about 340
Far and away the most important greenhouse gas in the Earth's atmosphere is water
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
WATER VAPOR BUDGET IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE
the
40
Earth's
house), atmosphere; in order to avoid gross model misbehavior (such as a REFERENCES
100%. this is generally reduced arbitrarily to some fixed relative humidity runaway less green
Arakawa, A. and W.H. Schubert (1974) A cumulus parameterization scheme
clouds The Kuo parameterizations act to influence the environment by having dee tha
utilizing a one-dimensional cloud model. J. Atmos. Sci., 31, 270-286.
simply mix into the environment at all levels. As Ooyama (1971)
Arking, A. (1990) Feedback processes and climate response. To appear in Proceedings
Arakawa and Schubert (1974) noted, this is not at all the way moist an
of the Conference on Climate Impacts of Solar Variablity, NASA Conference Publica-
where plumes behave. Rather, parcels rise rapidly through the convective towers, convective detraining
tion CP-3086.
from they reach neutral buoyancy. Their effects on the environment arise ultimateh
in the the subsidence required outside the clouds in order to balance the upward flow
Emanuel, K. (1990) A Scheme for Representing Cumulus Convection in Large-
clouds. The moisture budget in the Arakawa-Schubert parameterization
Scale Models. Report No. 3, Center for Global Change, M.I.T., 50 pp.
from the fact that the clouds detrain saturated air high in the troposphere when arise
Geleyn, J.-F., C. Girard, and J.-F Louis (1982) A simple parameterization of moist
temperatures are so cold that saturation involves minute specific humidities.
convection for large-scale atmospheric models. Beitr. Phys. Atmosph., 55, 325-334.
physics into my own cumulus parameterization (Lindzen, 1981, 1988) which has been
subsidence of this air acts to make lower levels very dry. I have incorporated The this
Kuo, H.L. (1974) Further studies of the parameterization of the influence of cumulus
successfully tested at the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting
convection on large-scale flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 31, 1232-1240.
(Geleyn, et al, 1982), and is the basis for their current parameterization.
Lindzen, R.S. (1981) Some remarks on cumulus parameterization. Proceedings of the
We have been able to show that such a parameterization leads to a
NASA Clouds in Climate Conference, NASA Report, available NASA/Goddard In-
cloud water vapor feedback (viz Figure 1). The reason is simple: surface warming strong negative
stitute of Space Studies.
elements to rise to higher, colder levels where saturated air causes the to
levels. smaller specific humidities, which in turn reduces the supply of moisture corresponds
Lindzen, R.S. (1988) Some remarks on cumulus parameterization. PAGEOPH, 16,
123-135.
Using Arking's (1990) calculations (viz Figure 2), one can show to that lower the
There resulting radiative effects are capable of strongly counteracting the original
Lindzen, R.S. A.Y. Hou and B.F. Farrell (1982) The role of convective model choice
is, nonetheless, a significant source of uncertainty in our calculations: warming neither
in calculating the climate impact of doubling CO2. J. Atmos. Sci., 39, 1189-1205.
from we nor the Arakawa and Schubert considered the contribution to the moisture budget
Mitchell, J.F.B., C.A. Senior, and W.J. Ingram (1989) CO2 and climate: a missing
in the the cloud towers Current observations show this effect is certainly
outside reevaporation of precipitation (in the form of both ice and water) falling
feedback? Nature, 341, 132-134.
lower troposhere, and may also have effects in the upper troposhere. significant As far
Ooyama, K. (1981) A theory on parameterization of cumulus convection. J. Meteor.
we can tell this may, in fact, enhance the negative feedback, but the matter needs as
Soc. Japan, 49, (special issue), 744-756.
checking, which is one of the things we propose to do.
PROPOSED BUDGET - WATER VAPOR PROPOSAL 1/1/91 - 12/31/91
this 'We implicitly allow for this in the lowest 2-3 km of the atmosphere by
Salaries 8 Wages
that layer to be turbulently mixed, thus avoiding the unrealistic heating considering and
Post-Doc 12 months ($2100/month)
$25,200
Arakawa and Schubert find at these levels - due to the fact that they do not drying even
GRA 12 months
13,680
allow for the reevaporation from precipitation from shallow clouds.
1/91 6/91:
1110
The process depends in some measure on the microphysics of clouds which is
7/91 12/91:
1170
uncertain. As a result, we plan to conduct extensive parametric studies in order very
Admin. Asst. - 1 month
2,140
determine the possible range of effects. In addition, we plan to introduce both to
Total Salary
$41,010
cloud parameterization for effects on both heat and moisture and an accurate radiative Our
Employee Benefits On campus rate: .045
16,613
et (1982) in order to directly estimate effects on global temperature.
transfer al scheme into a simplified global model similar to that developed by Lindzen
Total Salary& Benefits
$57,633
Operating Expenses
'PORT LEVEL
research We seek support for hiring one postdoctoral research associate and one predoctoral
Materials & Services
2,000
Travel
2,000
assistant to participate in this research.
Total Operating Expenses
4,000
Total Direct Cost
$61,633
Overhead: .575
35,439
Total Required
$97,072
Funding at this level -subject to inflationary increases will be needed for three years
FIGURE 1:
18
FIGURE 2:
100
50% Increase in W.V. in 40mb Layers
14
12
10
Height (KM)
8
6
4
Pressure (mb)
2
0
MLW
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
MLS
Relative Change of Specific Humidity
Relative change of specific humidity when atmospheric temperature is increased
by 1 K. (in percent) (The perturbation is constant with height).
1000
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.2
Change in Tsfc (K)
The change in surface temperature due to a 50% increase in water vapor in a
40mb layer, as a function of the height of the layer.
TRANSPORT AND THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT
HADLEY CIRCULATION
Richard Lindzen
The Hadley Circulation refers to the larger scale overturning of the atmosphere
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
associated with rising motion near the equator, and sinking near 30° latitude. This
circulation has been studied extensively (Schneider and Lindzen, 1977, Schneider,
Central to the possibility of global warming is the greenhouse effect. This effect,
1977, Held and Hou, 1980, Lindzen and Hou, 1988, Lindzen, 1990, Hou and Lindzen,
which is due to the fact that the atmosphere is significantly transparent to visible
1990). We have discovered several important properties of this major motion system:
radiation, but blocks cooling by infrared radiation, is responsible for the fact that the
1) It is the major supplier of angular momentum to middle latitudes, and appears to
Earth is 33°C warmer than it would be in the complete absence of greenhouse gases.
play a major role in forcing the mid-latitude eddies which carry heat to higher
That said, it must be added that the usual depiction of the greenhouse effect is
latitudes; 2) The Hadley Circulation is sensitive to the displacement of the surface
profoundly incomplete. A typical example of the usual depiction is shown in Figure
temperature maximum from the equator as well as to the zonally averaged concen-
1, taken from the Policymakers Summary of the recent IPCC Working Group I Report
tration of precipitation; 3) When the surface temperature maximum is displaced from
(Houghton, et al, 1990). What this figure suggests, is that radiative processes are
the equator (as it almost always is), the Hadley Circulation consists mainly in a single
responsible for cooling the surface of the Earth. This is simply untrue; the surface cools
cell which rises primarily in the 'summer' hemisphere, and extends well into the
mostly by evaporation, and heat is carried from the bottom of the atmosphere by
'winter' hemisphere -transport into the 'summer' hemisphere is minimal; and 4) The
mechanical transport which bodily carries the heat to higher altitudes and latitudes
observed intensity of the Hadley Circulation is consistent with only modest zonally
where the greenhouse potential is much less. This has been understood for almost a
averaged concentration of rainfall -suggesting that the intensity of the Hadley
century. An example of the effect of this is seen in Figure 2 taken from Moller and
Circulation does not depend on the local width of the Intertropical Convergence
Manabe (1960). Three curves are shown for the vertical profile of temperature (in °K,
Zone, but rather on the displacement of this zone by longitudinal asymmetries arising
absolute Kelvin temperature; the temperature in °C is the Kelvin temperature minus
from monsoons and easterly waves.
273°): two are based on the pure radiative picture (including and excluding the
infrared properties of clouds); the third includes a crude parameterization of transport
All the above studies have included the heating of the atmosphere in a very crude
(i.e., convective adjustment.) What one sees from this figure is that with pure
manner. What remains to be done is the incorporation of accurate parameterizations
radiative cooling, the surface would have an average temperature of about 350°K; only
of both cumulus heating and of the trade wind boundary layer. We propose to carry
with transport included is the temperature reduced to the observed 288°K. What
out these extensions.
happens more generally is illustrated in the accompanying schematic shown in Figure
BAROCLINIC EDDY TRANSPORT
3. Heat is carried from the tropical lower atmosphere to higher altitudes and latitudes
'Baroclinic eddies' refers primarily to those large scale transient eddies which carry
where the infrared opacity is less. It is primarily from the regions above where the heat
heat from the subtropics to higher latitudes. They are largely responsible for
is deposited that the infrared opacity is important. Thus, without knowing exactly
maintaining the habitability of high latitudes in winter. The traditional theory of the
where the heat is deposited, it is impossible to calculate the temperature of the Earth.
process for maintaining these eddies (Charney, 1947, Eady, 1949) attributes their
There are three major components of the transport for purposes of climate: 1)
maintenance to hydrodynamic instabilities arising from surface temperature gradi-
Cumulonimbus convection, 2) The Hadley circulation, and 3) Baroclinic eddy
ents. Subsequent studies attempted to relate the observed north-south temperature
transport. It is well known that none of these processes is accurately simulated in
distribution to some critical value needed for instability (Pocinki, 1955, Stone, 1978,
existing large scale models. We propose to study each of these processes in order to
Lindzen and Farrell, 1981, Lindzen, et al, 1982, Cehelsky and Tung, 1990). These
determine whether there are any underlying physical principles that would permit
studies were moderately successful, but depended on semi-empirical adjustments.
improved modelling with both large and simpler climate models.
Moreover, recent studies (Farrell, 1987) suggest that upper level shears may play a role
IMBUS CONVECTION
comparable to surface gradients in maintaining these eddies. We propose to
We have developed a parameterization for cumulonimbus convection (Lindzen,
undertake an extensive numerical study of what are the primary factors in generating
1981, Lindzen, 1988) which has been shown by the European Centre for Medium
baroclinic eddies, and of whether there is a nonlinear equilibrated state for these
Range Weather Forecasting to be the most accurate of the commonly available
eddies which determines their quantitative role in climate.
parameterizations (Geleyn, et al, 1982), and is the basis of their recently implemented
standard parameterization. The parameterization, however, suffers from not taking
SUPPORT LEVEL
We seek support for hiring one postdoctoral research associate and one predoctoral
account of the role of reevaporation of rain falling outside the cloud. This is currently
research assistant to participate in this research.
believed to be important. However, we will not discuss this further here since the
whole issue of cumulus parameterization is central to our proposal to study the
moisture budget of the upper troposphere.
ENCES
Cehelsky, P. and K.K. Tung (1990) Nonlinear baroclinic adjustment. J. Atmos. Sc.
FIGURE 1: A SIMPLIFIED DIAGRAM ILLUSTRATING THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT
in press.
Charney, J.G. (1947) The dynamics of long waves in a baroclinic westerly current.
J. Meteor., 4, 135-163.
Eady, E.T. (1949) Long waves and cyclone waves. Tellus, 1, 33-52.
Farrell, B. (1987) On developing disturbances in shear. J. Atmos. Sci., 42, 2191-2199.
Geleyn, J.-F., C. Cirard, and J.-F Louis (1982) A simple parameterization of moist
convection for large-scale atmospheric models. Beitr. Phys. Atmosph., 55, 325-334.
Held, I.M. and A.Y. Hou (1980) Nonlinear axially symmetric circulations in a
nearly inviscid atmosphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 37, 515-533.
Hou, A.Y. and R.S. Lindzen (1990) Intensification of the Hadley circulation due to
Some of the infra-red
radiation is absorbed
and re-emitted by the
greenhouse gases.
The effect of this is to
warm the surface and
the lower atmosphere
concentrated heating.
Houghton, J.T., G.J. Jenkins, and J.J. Ephraums, editors (1990) Climate Change, The
IPCC Scientific Assessment, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 365 pp.
Lindzen, R.S. (1981) Some remarks on cumulus parameterization. Proceedings of the
NASA Clouds in Climate Conference, NASA Report available NASA/Goddard In-
Infra-red radiation
is emitted from
the earth's surface
stitute of Space Studies.
Lindzen, R.S. (1988) Some remarks on cumulus parameterization. Pageoph, 16, 123-
135.
Lindzen, R.S. (1990) The Hadley circulation. Proc. ECMWF Conf. on Tropical
Meteorology.
ATMOSPHERE
EARTH
Lindzen, R.S. and B.F Farrell (1980) The role of polar regions in global climate, and
the parameterization of global heat transport. Mon. Wea. Rev., 108, 2064-2079.
Lindzen, R.S., A.Y. Hou and B.F. Farrell (1982). The role of convective model choice
in calculating the climate impact of doubling CO2. J. Atmos. Sci., 39, 1189-1205.
Some solar radiation
is reflected by the earth
and the atmosphere
Lindzen, R.S. and A.Y. Hou, (1988) Hadley circulations for zonally averaged heating
centered off the equator. J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 2416-2427.
Moller, F. and S. Manage (1961) Uber das Strahlungsgleichgiwicht der Atmosphare,
Z. fur Met., 15, 3-31.
Most radiation is absorbed
by the earth's surface
Pocinki, L. (1955) Stability of a simple baroclinic flow with horizontal shear, AF
and warms it
Cambridge Research Center, Geophys. Research Paper, 38, 78 pp.
Schneider, E.S. (1977) Axially symmetric steady state models of the basic state of
instability and climate studies. Part II: Nonlinear calculations. J. Atmos. Sci., 34,
SUN
280-296.
Solar
radiation
passes
through
the clear
atmosphere
Schneider, E.S. and R.S. Lindzen (1977) Axially symmetric steady state models of the
basic state of instability and climate studies. Part I: Linearized calculations. J. Atmos.
Sci., 34, 253-279.
Stone, P.H. (1978) Baroclinic adjustment. J. Atmos. Sci., 35, 561-571.
2:
Km
50
40
30
20
10
Infrared opacity is greatest at the ground over the tropics, and diminishes as one goes
poleward and upwards. Air currents bodily carry heat to regions of diminished infrared
opacity where the heat is radiated to space.
0
150
200
250
300
350°K
Radiative equilibrium in the earth's atmosphere.
After Moller and Manabe (1961). (a)
Calculations for 6/10 cloudiness. (c)
Calculations for clear skies. (b)
Moistadiabat with same heat content
as (b). Conditions correspond to the yearly mean at latitude 40° and a mean E © =
0.5. Results were obtained by the matrix method.
58
50
) BUDGET - TRANSPORT PROPOSAL 1/1/91 - 12/31/91
Salaries 8 Wages
not to be found in any existing climate modelling effort. M.I.T., in collaboration with
Post-Doc - 12 months ($2100/month)
$25,200
the Lincoln Laboratories, is in a unique position to develop such a synergistic effort.
GRA 12 months
13,680
It would, however, be expensive. I estimate the cost to be in the range of $5-20 million
1/91 6/91:
1110
per year. We are already taking preliminary steps toward setting up such an effort. If
7/91 12/91:
1170
there is interest in supporting an effort at this level, we would be glad to prepare a
Admin. Asst. - 1 month
2,140
detailed proposal.
Total Salary
$41,020
1
Employee Benefits On campus rate: .045
16,613
It should be noted that only one of the models currently used for climate studies was
Total Salary& Benefits
$57,633
developed from 'scratch'. This is the GFDL model which is almost twenty years old.
All the other models were ported from other groups. Thus, The GISS model is an
Operating Expenses
elaborated version of Arakawa's old 3-level model. Oregon uses the Arakawa-Mintz
Materials & Services
2,000
Travel
2-level model. The NCAR Community Climate Model was imported from Australia,
2,000
although it originated at GFDL.
Total Operating Expenses
4,000
Total Direct Cost
$61,633
Overhead: .575
35,439
GLOBAL CHANGE AND THE PRODUCTIVITY OF RANGELANDS
Total Required
$97,072
Funding at this level -subject to inflationary increases will be needed for three years
Herman Mayeux, Hyrum B. Johnson and H. Wayne Polley
U.S. Department of Agriculture
Agricultural Research Services
Temple, TX
LARGE SCALE CLIMATE MODELLING
The Earth's surface consists of 51% rangeland and permanent pasture (including
Richard Lindzen
grazed open forest), 21% closed forest, 11% cropland, and 17% barren and urban
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
lands. Range and pasture cover 55% of the U.S. and 80% of the Western states.
Almost 1 billion acres of rangeland and pastureland in the U.S. provide a variety of
Large scale general circulation models are potentially useful tools to study the
"goods and services," generating about 55% of total farm cash receipts, including
interactions of a wide variety of simultaneously acting processes. Unfortunately, if
almost $80 billion annually from livestock products alone. It is difficult to place a
the underlying processes are not understood, these models have proven to be poor
value on other products, like clean water and recreational opportunities from
tools for improving our understanding because of the clumsiness of the models and the
rangelands, but their value is considerable. Potential effects of global change on range
complexity of their output (among other problems). Moreover, although current
and pasture are equally as important as those on agronomic crops and forests.
large scale climate models extremely coarse versions of the models used for numerical
weather forecasting (and the weather forecasting models have numerous shortcom-
The CO2 concentration of the atmosphere has increased by about 30% in the last two
ings -though they have been improving). The reason for using coarse models for
centuries and may increase to twice the current level sometime in the next century.
climate studies is economic: climate models must run for much longer periods than
Fixation of carbon from atmospheric CO2 by plants through the process of photo-
forecasting models. It is sometimes argued that climate models can deal with the
synthesis is the basic source of energy and biomass accumulation, supporting all food
chains on earth. Recent and on-going research at numerous locations indicates that
atmosphere more coarsely because they are only concerned with long term averages.
Unfortunately, the relevant atmospheric processes involved in climate are the same
several biological effects of continued increases in atmospheric CO2 operate in
processes involved in weather; there is, therefore, no basis for this wishful thinking.
concert to enhance the productivity of vegetation, even in the event of global
warming (Cure and Acock, 1986). These physiological effects include increased
In view of the above, it is clear that climate models are not yet the tools we need.
photosynthetic rates (carbon assimilation) and quantum yield (the efficiency of light
Nonetheless, it is generally believed that they will eventually be what we need for
energy conversion by plants), reduced rates of respiration (metabolic carbon loss) and
comprehensive studies of the full effects of climatic forcing. Given the effort that is
transpiration of water (Gates et al., 1983, Pearcy and Bjorkman, 1983), and amelio-
needed to develop such models, it can be argued that they should be developed in
ration of the limitations imposed upon growth by stress (Idso, 1989). Comparisons
anticipation of our improved understanding of the individual processes and selective
of plant growth in atmospheres with current and future CO2 levels demonstrate that
interactions However, it is clear that any such development must involve the close
these physiological effects will be reflected in improved plant performance, including
and continuous interaction of theoreticians, observational analysts, experienced
increased biomass and ultimate size of individual plants, numbers of leaves, stems, and
modelers, numerical analysts, and even computer designers. These interactions are
branches, increased leaf area and leaf thickness, and delayed senescence. Timing and
output of reproductive processes may also be accelerated at higher CO2 levels.
61
Potential increases in the inherent productivity of crops (Kimball, 1983) and native
vegetation (Oechel and Strain, 1985) have been predicted as a consequence of
processes will be affected in ways that cannot be predicted based upon curren
increasing CO2. In natural ecosystems like rangelands, shifts in species composition
approaches is large, and the opportunity for identifying future effects by documentin
have also been predicted (Bazzaz, 1990, Patterson and Flint, 1990). These effects have
existing responses to the current increase in CO2 must not be dismissed. Importan
important implications concerning management and the use of vegetation resources.
native plant and ecosystem responses to increasing CO2 include:
1. Increased primary productivity associated with higher carbon assimilation
Of critical importance to the understanding of the nature of the effects of global
rates and lower respiration rates.
change on natural vegetation is the general finding that plants with the C3 photosyn-
2. Lengthened growing seasons and higher productivity due to increased wate
thetic pathway are relatively more favored by additional atmospheric CO2 than are
use efficiency, and increased water yields from rangeland watersheds.
those with the C4 pathway (Pearcy and Bjorkman, 1983). The implications of this
3. Amelioration of constraints imposed by stress.
difference are of concern because vast areas of Western rangeland are dominated by
Increased importance of mutualistic and symbiotic relationships which
C3 shrubs or C4 warm-season grasses. Either C3 or C4 grasses are grown in permanent
enhance productivity, such as rhizobial nitrogen fixation and mycorrhizal
perennial pastures, with C3 grasses predominating in the West and C4 grasses more
infection.
common in the East. Plants seeded in annual grass and legume pastures are
5. Shifts in species composition caused by variation among species in their
predominantly C3.
abilities to respond to increasing CO2 and resulting differences in competitivo
The response of C3 herbs to increasing CO2 over ranges that are now subambient and
ability and fitness.
representative of the recent past can be dramatic. In a recent experiment in our lab,
6. Increasing biotic carbon storage, with the overall effect of decreasing
oats (Avena sativa) and wild mustard (Brassica kaber) were grown in a continuous
atmospheric CO2 levels and ameliorating possible climatic effects, and more
CO2 gradient from 150 ppm to current ambient, about 350 ppm. Over the range of
site-specific effects such as improvement of soil properties by increasing organi
increasing CO2 from 250 to 350 ppm, representative of the change in the last 150
matter content or replenishing soil carbon lost over decades of tillage.
years, net carbon assimilation of both species increased by over 50%. Leaf area and
The hypothesis we propose to test is that the productivity of rangelands is increasing
oven-dry weight of topgrowth increased by the same extent or more, indicating that
because of rising atmospheric CO2 levels. The primary objective is to determine the
historical changes in CO2 may have had profound effects on the growth of C3 herbs.
extent to which the 30% increase in CO2 already experienced has had an effect or
At least four recent references suggest that increasing CO2 has already begun to in-
physiology and performance of important rangeland plants and productivity of plant
fluence productivity of forests. For instance, after a thorough analysis of annual
communities, and has influenced fundamental ecosystem processes. Such information
growth rings of two species of pine trees, LaMarche et al. (1984) concluded that
has inherent value and implications for management, but will also provide an
"greatly increased tree growth rates observed since the mid 19th century exceed those
additional approach to estimating future effects of rising CO2, by extrapolation into
the future.
expected from climatic trends but are consistent in magnitude with global trends in
CO2, especially in recent decades." Historic increases in wheat (Gifford, 1979) and
SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES
soybean (Allen et al., 1987) yields may be partly due to CO2 increases already ex-
1. Determine the extent of variation in response to CO2 among individual
perienced.
species and between the major functional groups of plants represented on
Clearly, research underway at several locations successfully addresses the effects of
rangelands: C3 herbs, C4 herbs, C3 woody species, and succulent CAM
future increases in atmospheric CO2 on plant physiology and performance, and largely
species.
positive effects have been documented. Limited experimental results suggest that the
2. Quantify the effects of increasing CO2 on the outcome of competition
30% increase in CO2 may have already impacted plant productivity in positive ways,
between species of the same and different functional groups.
especially in forests, but the implications of this possibility have not ben considered
3. Identify the physiological mechanisms by which increasing CO2 increases
on extensive agricultural lands not managed intensively, primarily grasslands. As
plant performance and influences competitive ability, and document the
several reviewers have pointed out (i.e. Bazzaz, 1990), our knowledge of plant
manner in which these physiological responses are manifested in whole-plant
response to rising CO2 is limited to studies of crop species and, to a lesser extent, trees
performance.
grown under highly artificial and controlled conditions. Little is known about the
4. Test the hypothesis that increasing CO2 interacts strongly with the re-
implications for extensively managed agricultural resources, as opposed to intensive
sponses of plants and plant assemblages to changes in the availability of
agriculture. Similarly, little interest has been evident in the important question of
resources which often limit productivity of rangelands, especially water,
whether the historical increase in CO2 from about 270 to 350 ppm has influenced the
nutrients, and light (amelioration of stress).
characteristics of native vegetation, despite widespread acceptance of the higher
5. Assess the extent of the effect of increasing CO2 on mutualistic processes
relative sensitivity of plants to changes in CO2 at levels below current ambient. The
such as symbiotic nitrogen fixation and mycorrhizal nutrient capture.
development of an understanding of how continued global change will influence the
6. Assess the extent and implications of increased biotic carbon storage in
structure and function of natural ecosystems like rangelands is of special interest
biomass and soils associated with increasing carbon assimilation and root
because of their economic importance. The likelihood that fundamental ecosystem
production and decreasing respiration.
63
S
Plants will be exposed to atmospheres of varying CO2 concentration in two ways, each
Physiological plant responses will be monitored by porometric methods and who
with distinct advantages and applications. In both, however, plants will be exposed
plant performance by conventional methods such as non-destructive photoelect
to CO2 levels which range from well below to above current ambient.
estimation of leaf area accumulation and destructive determination of end-of-seas
Plants will be grown in three air-conditioned glasshouses with daytime atmospheric
standing crop. Water use efficiency will be calculated at both the leaf and pla
CO2 concentrations maintained near 200, 350, and 500 ppm. This will allow
assemblage level in the chamber placed on disturbed, containerized soils, and in bo
replicated experiments in large pots, mostly addressing objectives 1, 2, and 3. The sub-
chambers using recently developed stable isotope technology.
ambient treatment will be created by maintaining high leaf area of actively photo-
synthesizing plants ("sinks") in addition to those included in experiments, as has been
REFERENCES
Allen, L.H., Jr., K.J. Boote, J.W. Jones, P.H. Jones, R.R. Valle, B. Acock, H.H. Roge
accomplished in a chamber at Temple, as described below.
and R.C. Dahlman. 1987. Response of vegetation to rising carbon dioxid
The second approach is unique in that plants are grown along a continuous gradient
Photosynthesis, biomass, and seed yield of soybean. Global Biogeochem. Cycles 1:1-1
of CO2 concentration from below pre-industrial levels (200 ppm) through current
Bazzaz, F.A. 1990. The response of natural ecosystems to the rising global CO2 level
ambient to that of the future, providing a CO2 treatment series representative of the
Ann. Rev. Ecol. Syst. 21:167-196.
real world as opposed to the large, single-step incremental increases of the glasshouse
approach. The gradient is established and maintained by photosynthetic depletion
Cure, J.D. and B. Acock. 1986. Crop responses to carbon dioxide doubling:
of CO2 in air moved slowly through elongated growth chambers by a blower. CO2
literature survey. Agric. For. Meteorol. 38:127-145.
concentration at the high end is determined by that of the CO2 enriched air provided
Gates, D.M., B.R. Strain, and J.A. Weber. 1983. Ecophysiological effects of changin
to the entrance to the chamber, and at the lower end by varying the rate of air flow
atmospheric CO2 concentration. Pages 503-526 in O.L. Lange, P.S. Nobel, C.I
to increase or decrease the extent of photosynthetic CO2 assimilation. Air flow rate
Osmond, and H. Ziegler, Eds. Physiological Plant Ecology IV, Encyclopedia of Plan
is automatically varied by algorithms in microloggers, which alter the voltage applied
Physiology. New Series, Vol. 12D., Springer-Verlag, Berlin.
to the DC fan motor, based upon the difference in observed and intended CO2
concentration at the low end of the chamber gradient and instantaneous photon flux
Gifford, R.M. 1979. Growth and yield of CO2-enriched wheat under water-limite
density. Temperature and humidity gradients are controlled by passing the chamber
conditions. Aust. J. Plant Physiol. 6:367-378.
air through chilled-water cooling coils to set to the desired dew point and resistance
Idso, S.B. 1989. Carbon Dioxide and Global Change: Earth in Transition. Inst. fo:
heating coils at appropriate intervals. The feasibility of this approach has been
Biospheric Res. Press, Tempe, AZ. 292pp.
demonstrated by operation of a 39-m long prototype within a glasshouse during the
last two years. Placing such systems outdoors offers several advantages relative to
Kimball, B.A. 1983. Carbon dioxide and agriculture - an analysis of 770 prio:
those operated indoors, such as more representative light regimes, larger effective plot
observations. U.S. Dept. Agric., Agric. Res. Serv., Water Conserv. Lab. Rep. 14.
areas, and more realistic soil volumes for plant growth, perhaps eliminating the
Phoenix, AZ.
possibly spurious acclimation of plants to elevated CO2 sometimes noted under less
natural conditions.
LaMarche, V.C., D.A. Gray, H.C. Fritts, and M.R. Rose. 1984. Increasing
atmospheric carbon dioxide: Tree ring evidence for growth enhancement in natural
Two such chambers, each almost 100 m long, will be constructed outdoors on ARS-
vegetation. Science 225:1019-1021.
owned land at the Temple Lab. Effective width of the soil surface beneath the
chambers will be 1m and the chambers' height will be increased over time to
Oechel, W.C., and B.R. Strain. 1985. Native species responses to increased
accomodate increasing height of the enclosed vegetation. The site is a native tall-
atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Pages 118-154 in B.R. Strain and J.D.
grass prairie with representative herbaceous vegetation. The chamber will be formed
Cure, Eds. Direct Effects of Increasing Carbon Dioxide on Vegetation. U.S. Dept. of
Energy, Washington, DC., DOE/OE-0238.
by polyethylene film secured along both edges to concrete runners set at ground level
and supported by a rounded frame, with access clamps provided for sampling soil and
Patterson, D.T. and E.P. Flint. 1990. Implications of increasing carbon dioxide and
plants. One chamber will be placed upon undisturbed soil and vegetation to monitor
climate change for plant communities and competition in natural and managed
changes in net primary productivity by species, litter production, phenological
ecosystems. Pages 83-110 in B.A. Kimball, N.J. Rosenberg, and L.H. Allen, Jr., Eds.
development, soil respiration rates, and other gross parameters over time (years). The
Impact of Carbon Dioxide, Trace Gases, and Climate Change on Global Agriculture.
soil beneath the other chamber will be enriched in 15N and enclosed in successive
Amer. Soc. Agron. Special Pub. No. 53.
1-m water-tight containers to facilitate control of resource availability in studies of
competition and stress effects. Clear acrylic tubes 4 cm in diameter will be installed
Pearcy, R.W. and O. Bjorkman. 1983. Physiological effects. Pages 65-105 in E.R.
to a depth of 3m in the soil beneath the chamber on undisturbed soil and to 1 m
Lemon, Ed. CO2 and Plants: The Response of Plants to Rising Levels of Atmospheric
beneath the other chamber for measurement of water content by neutron attenuation
Carbon Dioxide. Amer. Assoc. Advan. Sci. Select. Symp. No. 84. Westview Press,
and for video monitoring of root growth.
Boulder, CO.
GLOBAL AND HEMISPHERIC VERIFICATION OF CURRENT GENERAL.
Year 4
Total
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
CIRCULATION MODELS
Equipment
$60,000
Patrick J. Michaels
-
3 water chillers
$60,000
-
-
6,400
University of Virginia
-
6,400
-
Resistance heaters
-
2,500
-
2,500
-
-
Air handling system
13,200
-
13,200
-
21,000
General estimate the spatial and temporal changes in climate that might acknowl-
Circulation Models (GCMs) have been used for approximately be 15 expected years as
3 PC's
-
4 microloggers
21,000
tools to from human alterations of the atmosphere. While it is generally it
10,200
9 hygrometers
10,200
900
to result that they currently inadequate for estimation of local climatic In fact, changes, it those
4 PAR sensors
900
19,000
edged that their are global estimates should be given some credence. of the draconian
3 IRGA's
19,000
3,000
is thought that have served as the primary scientific basis for many that if
CO2 metering system
3,000
3,000
estimates now proposed to prevent global warming. I believe it is safe to say activity
Ass't electronics
3,000
800
solutions these models did not exist, we would not see the current level of political
800
Air pumps
1,800
directed towards human greenhouse effect alterations.
Circulating fans
1,800
1,000
Irrigation system
1,000
5,000
The five for doubled CO2 of 4.2°C. This seems not much different of
popularly used models, in their mid-1980's iteration, produced than a mean the global 19th
3 sequential samplers
5,000
4,800
warming calculations of Arrhenius, which projected a net global warming for ap- the
Neutron meter
4,800
6,000
Heating, cooling coils
6,000
century proximately 5°, and this correspondence is often cited as an argument
robustness of the projections.
Construction
10,000
the only anthropogenerated emission that increases infrared absorption Chloroflou in
Equipt. building
10,000
-
4,500
CO2 is not atmosphere. Others include Methane, Nitrous Oxide, and the if the
4,500
-
-
Soil compartments
2,200
the lower The effects of the non-CO2 species can be expressed radiatively as is nov
-
2,200
-
-
Poly. Support
rocarbons. and the resultant effective concentration in the atmosphre industrialization
were CO2, 420ppm. Measured background values (i.e. prior to of the pre
Expendable supplies
4,000
4,000
4,000
16,000
approximately are 260-279ppm. Thus we have already gone half-way to an effective doubling
CO2
4,000
1,200
1,200
4,800
1,200
industrial CO2 concentration.
Polyethelene film
1,200
3,000
3,000
3,000
12,000
Misc.
3,000
is customary to present the history of global temperature in the last 100 yea
While least it not contradictory to" projections, those models produce while an expect leas
as "at warming for this trace gas change of approximately 2.5°C, of 0.45°C a durit
Misc.
20,000
-
Stable isotopes
20,000
-
-
equilibrium fit of the entire global data set of Jones and Wigley gives a rise whi
10,000
10,000
30,000
Isotope analysis
-
10,000
squares Further, most of the warming has been in the southern hemisphere, the
258,100
that virtually period. all of the warming of the northern hemisphere was prior to major postu
18,200
203,500
18,200
18,200
Subtotals
emission of the trace gases.
the southern hemisphere should warm up least and slowest, because its that surfa I
Salaries (temp.)
Electronics tech.
28,808
29,960
31,158
117,626
27,000
In fact, entirely water. Yet even using liberal estimates of the length of time should ha
44,600
46,348
48,240
50,170
189,394
is almost should retard the warming still sugests that the hemisphere in
Biol. technicians
34,840
36,234
37,683
142,257
33,500
oceans warmed up over a degree (primarily after 1950), and the observed net warming
Post doc.
114,434
449,277
period is 0.25°C.
Total Salaries
110,032
119,011
105,800
then left with the proposition if in fact the models are correct, then
128,232
137,211
707,377
One measured is temperature must be in error. While this logic seems preposterous or
309,300
132,634
Grand Totals
there are in fact several problems associated with surface tempera¹ of
surface, that make the global records somewhat dubious, although than most fal
measurement measurement biases would probably tend towards falsely warm records
cold ones.
The most reliable record is the U.S. Historical Climate Network record of Karl, which
shows no net warming over the last 100 years. However, it does show that night
change the most by these models. In the Northern Hemisphere, this may be the
temperatures are rising while day values are declining. This is consistent with a world
warming that could be reduced by cloudiness. If cloudiness is the cause, then the
in which the traces gases and clouds increase simultaneously.
daytime temperatures will warm very little. Daytime and summer temperatures, of
Thus, if GCM's only account for increases in infrared absorbing trace gases and either
course, are the primary driving variables for the apocalyptic greenhouse scenarios.
inadequately calculate clouds, or do not include other emissions (such as SO2) that
can increase cloudiness, they may in fact be failing in their global projections; this
BUDGET
Length of Project:
Two Years
proposal is designed to provide a simple test of that hypothesis.
Cost (including overhead and fringe):
$100,000/year
One of the many output variables from GCM's are seasonal sea level pressure (SLP)
anomalies that develop as the infrared forcing increases in transient models. It is the
Expenses:
1.0 FTE Professional Climatologist
changes in the magnitude and the frequency these air masses that in fact creates the
Computational Equipment and Time
changes in day-to-day weather that drive some of the more apocalyptic notions of
Data Acquisition
future climate.
Total Expenses:
$200,000
SLP integrates most of the changes in other atmospheric state variables that occurs
in these models. Statistical techniques of multivariate analysis-particularly certain
types of factor analyses-can be used to define the eigenvectors of these changes, on
both seasonal and hemispheric scales. These eigenvectors conveniently and eco-
PRE-PROPOSAL FOR ESTABLISHMENT OF GLOBAL DATA BASE AT
nomically represent the overall changes in the atmosphere that would be expected as
THE MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
a result of the trace gas alterations. A combination of the most important ones
explains most of the expected changes in atmospheric behavior. The value of this
Reginald E. Newell
combination changes as the modelled atmosphere changes.
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Since 1950 there has been a considerable increase in the infrared forcing from the
INTRODUCTION
It is proposed to set up a Global Data Base (GDB) at MIT which will include
greenhouse gases-equivalent to a 70ppm increase in CO2. This gives an effective rise
parameters which are relevant to the global warming issue.
of approximately 1% per year, similar to that modelled in GCMs of the National
Center for Atmospheric Research and NASA. These models, called "transients"
The data selected would be used to address the following main questions:
because the increase in trace gas forcing is realistic (rather than the "shock doublings")
1) Has there been a global warming in the last 150 years or is the observed
used in most other models) will show some systematic change in the major eigenvectors
temperature record simply reflecting normal climatic fluctuations?
of SLP.
2) If global warming has occurred is it related in any way to the observed
increase in atmospheric CO2?
An excellent record of global SLP also exists, and pressure data suffers from very few
3) If there is no significant evidence for a global warming what are the physical
of the confounding effects that may compromise temeperature records, such as the
factors controlling the observed fluctuations?
urban heat island effect. An analogous calculation of its eigenvectors and their
4) Have changes in the atmospheric water cycle, which dominates the
behavior since 1950 can easily be made. We will then compare the temporal history
atmospheric energy budget, occurred in this period? Have changes in other
of this record to that of the GCM sea level pressure eigenvectors.
components of the energy budget occurred?
It is our prior working hypothesis that the GCMs indicate that the SLP eigenvectors
5) What are the mechanisms by which atmospheric CO2 or H2O, or both,
should now be signifcantly different than they were 40 years ago, and that the
influence the energy budget?
observed SLP eigenvectors in fact will not be different than they were in the 1950's,
6) How are changes at the earth's surface, both land and ocean, related to free
or that many of the changes may in fact be opposite in direction to those predicted by
air circulation, temperature and moisture changes and to changes in the
GCMs.
radiative fluxes both through and at the top of the atmosphere?
7) What are the best values for the meridional energy fluxes by the atmosphere
The implication is that the GCMs are not only failing locally (which is generally
and the ocean and what can be said about their variability?
conceded), but that in fact they are failing globally. If this is true, then their use as one
of the pillars supporting the policy edifice is inappropriate.
The GDB would be open to international visitors. Data sets would be interchanged
with those in other Data Centers either by CD-ROM or by direct computer linkages.
While we suspect that this objective quantitative analysis will in fact show that these
The sets could be used by all modeling groups including one planned at MIT's Center
models are inappropriate to support policy, our results can also be used to help improve
for Global Change.
the same models by specifying their areas of failure. It is our prior hypothesis that the
major areas where improvement will be required will be in model calculated tempera-
ture changes at high latitudes in winter-precisely the temperatures expected to
69
COMPONENTS BY QUESTION
The top-of-the atmosphere fluxes can be checked with satellite observations. The
generation of zonal and eddy available potential energy can be examined for
1) There are presently four data sets being used to study this question: a collection
variations of moisture, temperature and cloudiness such as those that occur during El
of land data by Bradley al. (1985); a collection of land data by Hansen and Lebedeff
Nino events. For these budget daily values are necessary; they can be obtained from
(1987); a collection of ship's reports which has been used to produce the Global
NOAA from 1980 only.
Ocean Surface Temperature Atlas (GOSTA), a joint project of MIT and the UK
Meteorological Office (Bottomley et al., 1990); and a set of marine data the
6) Much of the data necessary to answer question 6 will have been collected for
Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) (Shultz et al., 1985; Oort
question 5. Satellite measurements of air temperature and cloudiness and detailed
al., 1987). The first step here would be to combine the COADS and GOSTA data
marine data to compute sea-air energy transfer will also be needed. An analyzed set
sets and to add all other available data, for example that from whaling ships. As is
of cloud data, the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), has
obvious from a video of GOSTA there are a significant number of gaps in the
been prepared under WMO auspices (Schiffer and Rossow, 1985) and we would
coverage. The second step would be to re-evaluate the corrections applied to buckets
obtain copies of this set.
used for sea surface temperature measurements before 1920; experiments are now
7) An additional data set necessary to recompute the meridional oceanic energy flux
taking place with the Woods Hole Sea Educational Association students and ships.
is the Master Oceanic Observations Data Set (MOODS update 5) (see Hsiung et al.,
The third step would be to reconstruct a chronology of surface temperatures over the
1989). Atmospheric energy flux can be computed from data available under question
ocean from 1856 to the present, then develop various criteria to study the significance
5. At present different techniques give oceanic fluxes which differ by a factor of two
of the changes.
(Newell and Hsiung, 1990).
2) When atmospheric CO2 is doubled, infrared radiation at the ground increases by
Once these data sets are collected they will be kept up-to-date in real time so that
about 2 Wm There is considerable uncertainty regarding the fate of this additional
continuous assessments may be made of the mass, moisture, energy and momentum
radiation: over the tropical ocean it has been suggested that much of this energy goes
into evaporation so that essentially no temperature change occurs whereas over land,
budgets.
particularly land, a temperature increase would be expected (Newell and Dopplick,
1979). The sensitivities of these two regions are thought to be about 30 Wm "K" and
PERSONNEL
PI for the GDB project would be Professor Reginald E. Newell. In addition to 130
1 Wm "K⁻¹ respectively so it is important to examine the geographical distribution of
publications concerned with the atmosphere and ocean he has compiled a set of
surface temperature and surface moisture changes (see also Idso, 1980). Moisture
general circulation statistics into a monograph on Tropical General Circulation
analyses must therefore be added to the data collected in item 1.
(Newell et al. 1972, 1974), initiated the joint MIT-UK Met Office project that
resulted GOSTA, and has supervised over 50 graduate theses. A Research Associate
3) Some of the pertinent physical factors studies recently by Wu et al. (1990) are solar
would be appointed to manage GDB and there would be a programmer, two graduate
irradiance, atmospheric turbidity and the Southern Oscillation Index, a measure of
students and two undergraduates MIT's Undergraduate Research Opportunities
pressure field perturbations in the tropical Pacific. Data on the first is now being
Program (UROP). In addition after the first year a Visiting Scientist program, limited
accumulated from satellite observations and can be obtained. Turbidity has been
to 9 month periods, would be instituted.
deduced from sunshine records. A major effort is required to improve the data base
before 1920 as only a few sunshine records have been converted to turbidity from that
period. Other approaches need to be explored.
REFERENCES
Bottomley, M., C.K. Folland, J. Hsiung, R.E. Newell and D.E. Parker, Global Ocean
Surface Temperature Atlas "GOSTA", U.K. Met. Office, 20 pp. and 313 plates, 1990.
4) Probably the most reliable component of the water cycle that can be monitored
for a long period is the surface specific humidity, measured using wet and dry bulb
Bradley, R.S., et al., A Climatic Data Bank for Northern Hemisphere Land Areas
thermometers, and available for both land and sea. This would be a major new dataset
1851-1980, TR017 U.S. Dept. of Energy, Washington, D.C., 335 pp., 1985.
compilation performed as part of the GDB. An attempt would also be made to collect
Doherty, G.M. and R.E. Newell, Radiative effects of changing atmospheric water
and examine data for the computation of evaporation from both land and sea;
interannual variations can be computed for the ocean back to 1940. Precipitation is
vapor, Tellus, 36B, 149-162, 1984.
difficult to estimate at sea and can only be deduced from satellite data for the past 20
Ellsaesser, H.W., The climatic effect of CO2: a different view, Atmospheric Environ-
years. Free air moisture values would also be collected. Any changes in these would
ment, 18, 431-434, 1984.
influence infrared radiative fluxes, a point stressed by Doherty and Newell (1984),
Ellsaesser (1984) and Lindzen (1990).
Hansen, J.E., and S. Lebedeff, Global trends of measured surface air temperatures,
J. Geophys. Res., 92, 13345-13372, 1987
5) In order to calculate the terms in the atmospheric energy budget values of free air
temperature, moisture, and wind velocity are required as a function of pressure. These
Hsiung, J., R.E. Newell, and T. Houghtby, The annual cycle of oceanic heat storage
and oceanic meridional heat transport, Quart. J. R. Meteor. Soc., 115, 1-28, 1989.
are only available from about 1950 onwards. Values of radiative fluxes and cooling
rates can be computed from observations of temperature, moisture and cloudiness.
71
PREPROPOSAL FOR A CENTER TO MODEL ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN
Idso, S.B., The climatological significance of a doubling of earth's atmospheric carbon
ECOSYSTEM INTERACTIONS
dioxide concentration, Science, 207, 1462-1463, 1980.
Roger A. Pielke
Lindzen, R.S., Some coolness concerning global warming, Bulletin Amer. Meteor. Soc,
Colorado State University
71, 288-299, 1990.
INTRODUCTION
Current GCM models have provided useful insight into the physical mechanisms
Newell, R.E. and T.G. Dopplick, Questions concerning the possible influence of
associated with the general circulation of the earth. Unfortunately, several signifi-
anthropogenic CO2 on atmospheric temperature,J Appl. Meteor., 18, 822-825, 1979.
cant physical processes have not been adequately represented up to the present in
using GCMs to investigate natural and potential man-caused climate change. These
Newell, R.E. and J. Hsiung, Recent oceanic meridional flux estimates and their
include the two way interaction between the biosphere and the atmosphere, the
relationship with temperature gradients, J. Phys. Ocean., 20, 483-486, 1990.
influence of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud radiative and dynamic processes, and
the generation of atmospheric circulations due to spatial and temporal variations in
Newell, R.E., J.W. Kidson, D.G. Vincent, and G.J. Boer, The General Circulation
landscape.
the Tropical Atmosphere and Interactions With Extratropical Latitudes, Vol. I, 258 pp,
To properly represent these features, as well as other features of the general circulation
Vol. 11, 371 pp., MIT Press, 1972 and 1974.
(such as extratropical cyclone development, mesoscale atmospheric and oceanographic
circulation) also requires better spatial resolution than achieved in current GCMs
Oort, A.H., Y.H. Pan, R.W. Reynolds and C.F. Ropelewski, Historical trends in the
(Pielke et al., 1988; Pielke, 1990; and Pielke and Kittel, 1988). Existing evidence
surface temperature over the ocean based on COADS, Clim. Dyn., 2, 29-39, 1987.
suggests that horizontal grid intervals on the order of 10-30 km (with sufficient
vertical resolution -50 levels in the lower troposphere) may be sufficient to
Schiffer, R.A. and W.B. Rossow, ISCCP Global Radiance Data Set: A new resource
explicitly spatially resolve the dominant energy containing motions in the atmosphere-
for climate research, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 66, 1498-1505, 1985.
biosphere-ocean interactions, with smaller spatial scales parameterized using one-
dimensional model frameworks.
Slutz, R.J. and seven others, COADS Release 1, ERL, Boulder, Colorado, 1985.
Wu, Z-X., R.E. Newell, and J. Jsiung, Possible factors controlling global marine
COUPLED MODEL
Atmospheric Model
temperature variations over the past centruy, Geophys. Res., 95, 11799-11810, 1990.
If horizontal grid intervals of 10 km with 50 vertical levels are assumed to be necessary
in order to properly simulate the general circulation, approximately 5 X 108 grid
points would be required to resolve the entire globe. Until recently, this computa-
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Total
tional requirement was not perceived to be possible in the near term (less than 10
ET (IN K$)
Salaries and Wages
299
1,314
years). Teraflop calculation speeds and gigabyte memory are required. Massively
Total Sal. & Wages
191
264
274
286
parallel supercomputer structure such as proposed in the IBM VULCAN could,
plus Fringe Benefits
Total Operating Expenses
23
24
25
25
24
121
however, provide these capabilities (e.g., see also Walatka, 1990).
Ocean Model
Equipment (Computers)
60
274
288
1,495
Oceanographic models have grid point data requirements on a global scale which are
299
311
323
Total Direct Costs
on the same order as the atmospheric models. Coupling with the atmosphere is achieved
121
163
169
176
183
812
Overhead Minus Equip.
at the ocean surface through the turbulent heat, moisture, and momentum fluxes and
and UROP Student
from rain and snowfall.
395
451
469
487
505
2,307
Ecosystem model
Total Expenses
The total number of grid points used to characterize the ecosystem using ecosystem
Computer purchase. It is proposed to purchase two SUN SPARC stations, a CD-RO
optical disc reader, Pinnace-Microsystem optical disc read-write and peripherals which
species composition models is unclear (since we do not yet know the spatial structure
of the current landscape), but is expected to be less than that of the atmospheric and
$60,000.
ocean models. Ocean ecosystem models (to include phytoplankton effects) also need
to be implemented. Coupling with the atmosphere would be achieved through the
fluxes of heat, moisture, trace gases and momentum and from long-wave and short-
wave radiative flux effects.
73
Coupling in time
concentration about four times the present value.
Since the atmospheric time scales are typically much more rapid than for the ocean
Laboratory and field experiments indicate substantial increases in growth by plan
and ecosystem, we will explore efficient algorithms to update ocean and ecosystem
exposed to elevated carbon dioxide concentrations. However, relatively litt!
conditions with time scales which are long compared with the atmosphere modeling.
information is available on the combined effects of carbon dioxide enrichment an
concomitant changes in climate. Such information is necessary for realistic projection
Summary and Budget
of agricultural productivity and as input to models of natural systems.
This brief write-up is a preproposal and a more detailed write-up is necessary in order
Research projects designed to provide information on these direct and interactiv
to elaborate on the broad general statements given above. We hope that the
responses of plants include the following:
opportunity to create such an atmosphere-ocean-ecosystem coupled model using
OBJECTIVE
Expand the Free-Air Carbon dioxide Enrichment (FACE) project to include one
massively parallel supercomputers is recognized.
more forest tree species and forest ecosystems.
The cost to create this Center would be on the order of 3 million dollars per year for
One of the obvious difficulties in carrying out a long-term field project involvir
a ten year period plus the initial procurement of a massively parallel system (e.g. such
forest trees is that they are perennial and they grow. In ten years time, a plantatio
as the IBM VULCAN and data storage devices). We would need about 5 investigators
of fast-growing conifers may grow from foot-high seedlings to ten-meter tree
in each of the three descriptive areas plus several programmers and other support staff.
Instrumentation to produce and monitor planned carbon dioxide concentration
The Center would be housed at Colorado State University, but would involve a range
must be designed to keep up with this growth. In addition, evergreen trees in warn
of investigators from other research groups.
moist regions grow during the entire year, with the requirement that the experimer
be continued through most if not all of the year. On the other hand, deciduous tre
in temperate climates will grow only during that period of the year when they hav
Pielke, R.A., 1988: Evaluation of climate change using numerical models. In
leaves.
"Monitoring Climate for the Effects of Increasing Greenhouse Gas Concentrations.
Proceedings of a Workshop". R.A. Pielke and T. Kittel, Eds., Cooperative Institute
Requirements for an initial expansion of the FACE project into forest ecosysten
for Research inthe Atmosphere (CIRA), Fort Collins, Colorado, August 1987, 161-
include the following: 1) selection of a relatively slow-growing species; 2) a larg
172.
mono-culture plantation, either recently established or about to be planted; 3) fla
terrain, to minimize topographic effects; and 4) near a commercial source of carbo
Pielke, R.A.., 1990: Overlooked scientific issues in assessing hypothesized green-
dioxide.
house gas warming. Proceedings, 1990 Electric Utility Business Environment Conference
BUDGET
(Projected cost: $1,000,000 per year for ten years)
and Exhibition, Denver, Colorado. March 7-9, 1990, 199-208.
OBJECTIVE
Assemble data base of crop and forest yield data for past century (or longer, if possible
Pielke, R.A. and T. Kittel, Editors, 1988: Monitoring climate for the effects of increasing
in areas where "technology" (i.e., cultural practices such as fertilization, changes it
greenhouse gas concentrations. A Compendium of Papers Presented at a Workshop
irrigation practices, seed source, etc.) can be considered constant. Analyze these dat
Sponsored by the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Fort Collins,
for changes in yield that can be appropriately associated with atmospheric carbo:
Colorado, August 26-28, 1987.
dioxide increases over the past century.
Walatka, P.P., 1990: Microprocessors compete with fastest supercomputers U/NAS/
Interest in the effects of modern technology on the yield of grain crops was stimulate
NEWS (The Numerical AerodynamicsSimulation Program Newsletter), NAS Systems
by pioneering work of Thompson (1972). He hypothesized that most of the effect
Division of NASA Ames Research Center, 5 (9), September, 1990.
of agriculture research (genetics, fertilization, irrigation, etc.) have been manifeste
in farm practice in the United States since about the end of World War II. Prior to
that, year-to-year fluctuation in crop yield was supposed to be due primarily to natura
climatic fluctuation, with little or no secular change in yield. Since that time, yield
DIRECT EFFECTS OF AN INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC
CARBON DIOXIDE
have increased dramatically, with this trend superimposed by fluctuating climate.
It can be expected that there are areas of the world where technological change it
W.E. Reifsnyder
Yale University
agriculture practice has been minimal over the past two centuries. Rice culture prio
to the "green revolution" may be one of these. a brief reanalysis of the Thompson dat:
)N
Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations have increased approximately 25% in
referred to above indicates that prior to 1945 there was a significant linear increas
the past century. Current estimates of CO2 emissions in the future indicate that
in corn yield consistent with the measured increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide
current concentrations may double by the year 2090 (Houghton et. al 1990). By that
The growth of unmanaged forest is the result of a large number of exogenous variable
time, increase in other greenhouse gases may yield an equivalent greenhouse gas
such as precipitation amount and distribution; variation in temperature regime; year
7'
to-year fluctuation in climate; the vagaries of insect pests, among many others. It is
should be more like three times the maximum historical rate). However, these
also, of course, dependent on the supply of solar radiation and atmospheric carbon
ecosystem response predictions assume that ecosystem change responds to global
dioxide. Unmanaged forests in any part of the world should show some increase in
mean temperature, a patently false assumption: ecosystems respond to the changes
growth due to carbon dioxide increase, which can be determined through sophisti-
that occur in the immediate environment to which they are subjected. Nevertheless,
cated ring-width analyses.
there have been ecosystems that have been subjected to large changes occurring over
periods of time ranging from decades to millennia.
Two parallel projects are proposed: one to search for and analyze long-term
agricultural yield databases that are relatively unaffected by technology change; and
Information is potentially available from past records of climate changes and
another to explore the possibilities of using dendrochronological data in a search for
concomitant ecosystem changes that can be analyzed to provide answers to the effects
carbon dioxide effects.
of climate change on ecosystems, both natural and managed. Analyses of this sort are
currently available in the published scientific literature. To utilize this information,
(Projected cost: $100,000 per year for five years)
the following projects are suggested:
Expand existing growth-chamber and glasshouse studies on the interaction between
OBJECTIVE
Perform microanalyses on climate change since the last glaciation in order to identify
carbon dioxide increase and temperature/moisture changes (both increases and
regions where climate change has been especially large and rapid.
decreases).
Current interest in climate change has kindled interest in the historical climate
Estimates of growth enhancement range from 0.5 to 2.0% for each 10 ppm increase
record. Good instrumental records of surface temperature on a world-wide basis exist
in atmospheric CO2 (Strain and Cure, 1985). Little information is available on the
only from the middle of the last century. A recent compilation of existing data
combined effects of increasing carbon dioxide concentration and secular changes in
(Boden et al 1990) presents data for the globe from 1850 and for various regions in
climate on growth and phenology of terrestrial plants. Most speculation on the
the United States from 1900. Earlier climates have been inferred using various
ecological effects of "greenhouse warming" (and, indeed, "glacial cooling") has
methodologies.. (See Houghton et al 1990, Chapter 7, for a summary of current
ignored the synergistic effects of direct CO2 increases and secular climate change.
knowledge)
However, experiments in controlled environment chambers have generally indicated
that concomitant increases in air temperature and CO2 have enhanced biomass in-
Preliminary analysis of data presented in Houghton et al (1990) indicate that there
creases resulting from increased CO2 concentrations alone (Allen 1988). Thus the
probably have been periods since the last ice age when global mean temperatures
need is great for information on plant response to various scenarios of CO2 increase
increased by approximately 0.1 C per decade for periods of at least a century and
and climate change. Existing projects should be expanded and new projects sup-
perhaps for several centuries. Further analysis of the raw data will refine these
ported.
estimates.
(Projected cost: $1,000,000 per year for five years.)
BUDGET
(Projected cost: $100,000 per year for 5 years)
OBJECTIVE
Analyze existing climate/ecosystem data for information on ecosystem response to
relatively rapid secular changes in the significant climatic parameters.
Allen, Jr., L.H. 1988. Plant responses to rising CO2. Proceedings of the 79th Annual
Meeting of the Air Pollution Control Association, 22-27 June 1986.
Various methods have been used by paleoecologists to determine ecosystems of the
past. Among these are pollen analysis, glacial varve analysis and dendrochronology.
Thompson, L. M., 1969. Weather and technology in the production of corn in the
These same methods have been used to infer past climates. Indeed, there is an implied
U.S. corn belt. Agronomy Journal.; 61. 453-456.
circularity of reasoning here; the same data have been used to infer both ecosystem
change and climate change. The state of the ecosystem (and its changes over time)
is used to infer climate, which is then presumed to be the major cause of the changes
in the ecosystem. However, careful and sophisticated analysis may be able to provide
EFFECT OF RAPID CLIMATIC CHANGE ON ECOSYSTEM FUNCTION
enough independent evidence to give confidence in interpreting climate change and
ecosystem response in terms of future changes.
W.E. Reifsnyder
Yale University
At any rate, ferreting out change/response information from the paleological and
historical data will provide important clues to likely ecosystem response to possible
A major concern of the IPCC Working Group II (IPCC 1990) appears to be that
climate warming. Further research and reinterpretation of existing data should be
"projected changes in climate will present...ecosystems with a climate warmer than
pursued vigorously.
that experienced during their recent evolution and there will be warming at a rate 15-
40 times faster than past glacial-interglacial transitions"; and that these changes will
BUDGET
(Projected cost: $75,000 per year for four years)
cause disruption of ecosystems. (It should be noted that IPCC working groups do not
agree on the magnitudes and rates of change. Working Group I indicates that the rate
77
Boden, T. A., P. Kanciruk and M. P. Farrell. 1990. Trends '90. A compendium of data
invent, develop and install a technology to enable them to survive in a hostile
on global change. ORNL/CDIAC-36. Oak Ridge: Carbon Dioxide Information
environment. They can develop crops that will thrive under the changed conditions
Analysis Center.
or they can erect glasshouses to permit establishment of a favorable microclimate.
Houghton, J. T., G. T. Jenkins and J.J. Ephraums (editors). Climate Change. The
Many other strategies exist.
IPCC scientific assessment. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
It has been suggested (Calvin, 1990) that the human brain evolved dramatically in
response to the need for man to survive the climatic changes implicit in the ice ages
and interglacial periods. Calvin suggests that a brain that can function effectively in
widely different climates has an adaptive superiority to one that can function
SOCIAL/POLITICAL RESPONSE TO PROJECTED THREATS OF
effectively in only one climate.
"GREENHOUSE" WARMING
OBJECTIVE
Investigate the response of the world's agricultural system to past climatic change,
W.E. Reifsnyder
both short- and long-term.
Yale University
Modern temperate-zone agriculture has demonstrated a remarkable resiliency and
The phenomenon of massive social and political response to dire-though unsubstan-
adaptability to rapidly changing social, economic and environmental conditions
tiated-predictions of apocalyptic climate change in unprecedented. In the recent
(NAS 1976). Farmers employ a wide variety of techniques in the attempt to insulate
past, society has responded to "real" threats, that is, to observations of happenings in
themselves from the vagaries of climate: they switch to plant varieties better adapted
the real world. For example, it was observed that certain forests were dying, apparently
to the changing conditions; they plant different crops entirely; they fertilize, irrigate
the result of an external threat. Research indicated a probable (but not certain) cause,
and husband their crops in ways calculated to improve plant response to the changing
atmospheric contaminants such as sulfur dioxide. Oil spills obviously created havoc,
conditions. In this context, it should be noted that the year-to-year fluctuations in
at least in the short term and in localized areas. Various chemicals used by agriculture
climate are several orders of magnitude greater than the slow secular change of
and industry have been shown to have undesirable effects on animals and humans in
climate proposed in the various climate-warming scenarios.
certain concentrations. Society has responded to such perceived threats in a variety
In order to put the adaptability of agriculture into the context of a potential
of ways, political, social, and economic.
greenhouse warming, retrospective studies should be made of the responses of the
In the global warming phenomenon, however, society is responding to a threat
agricultural system to past climatic change and fluctuation, on regional and global
produced only in the world of mathematical models. No real world data have been
scales.
adduced to demonstrate any human, animal or plant response to carbon-dioxide-
produced warming. This is a situation that cries out for intensive sociological
BUDGET
(Projected cost: $100,000 per year for 6 years)
research: How has society responded to the perceived threat of global warming? What
have been societal responses to actual changes in local and regional and global
climate? What are the causes of the observed societal responses to the perceived
REFERENCES
Calvin, W.H. 1990. The ascent of mind. Ice ages and the evolutional intelligence. New
threats? Whether or not the threats materialize, what can we learn from our current
York: Bantam Books.
responses that will be of value in responding to future real or perceived threats? These
are areas ripe for social science research, little of which has been done to the present
Griffiths, C., G. W. Sheldon and W.J. McG. Tegart (editors). 1990. Potential
impacts of climate change. Report from Working Group II to IPCC. Intergovernmental
time.
Panel of Climate Change.
In addition, society has responded to past climate changes in ways that are still a
matter of scientific speculation and controversy. Although it seems obvious that the
NAS 1976. Climate and food. Climatic fluctuation and U.S. agricultural production. A
evolution and development of mankind has been profoundly influenced by the earth's
report of the Committee on Climate and Weather Fluctuations and Agricultural
climates and their evolution, it has been difficult to establish specific cause-and-effect
Production, National Research Council. Washington, DC: National Academy of
relationships.
Sciences.
A number of research projects are suggested to answer some of these questions.
Evaluate societal response to periods of rapid climatic change, based on historical
data.
Societies have responded to climate change in a wide variety of ways. Individuals or
groups can migrate to escape undesirable or untenable climatic conditions. They can
adapt to changing conditions through a variety of mechanisms. For example, they can
erect buildings to insulate themselves from an unfavorable conditions; they can
7'
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE-RESEARCH PROPOSAL
1988). Its net effect could be a substantial greenhouse warming.
S. Fred Singer
Three experimental approaches are contemplated in order to determine the impor-
Visiting Scholar
tance of this effect.
National Air and Space Museum
1. In situ observations of aircraft exhausts -to be done in collaboration with
NASA-Langley.
RATURE VARIATION
2. Observation from a surface station with LIDAR -to be done in collaboration
In the past 100 years the content of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has been
with University of Hawaii.
increasing as a result of human activities. Yet there appears to be no discernible
3. Passive observations of infrared sky emissions (from Hawaii) using an IR
warming in the global climate record which could be directly attributed to greenhouse
interferometer.
warming. Not only is the temperature increase too small (and at times even negative,
APPENDIX
for example between 1940 and 1975), but the details of the small general increase do
GLOBAL WARMING: DIFFERENT CAUSES, DIFFERENT CONSEQUENCES
not match what is predicted by model calculations.
Global warming more generally, global climate change be caused by many.
This is a puzzling result, since no one doubts that the natural greenhouse exists and
quite different mechanisms. Currently, greenhouse effects due to CO2 command the
has been keeping the earth warm and habitable for billions of years. Three types of
greatest public attention, and are at the heart of international efforts to "stabilize" the
explanations are generally put forward to explain the discrepancy - the absence of
climate of the earth. But there are other physical mechanisms that can act in ad-
an observed enhanced greenhouse effect resulting from the enhancement of green-
dition- or in opposition to CO2: Other greenhouse gases, like methane, that would
be more difficult to control; changes in the albedo of the earth's surface or atmosphere:
house gases:
1. Negative feedbacks from clouds, ocean currents, or water vapor convection
long-term changes in ocean circulation or other ocean properties; changes in solar
emissions or in the solar "constant".
not taken into account in the models) are diminishing the greenhouse effect.
2. Natural climate fluctuations are offsetting the expected greenhouse warm
How can we tell from the climate record which of the many causes have been
ing.
responsible for the observed changes: And would the effects of a climate change be
3. The ocean with its large heat capacity is delaying the enhanced warming.
different for different causes?
It is important therefore to find and measure specific "fingerprints" of greenhouse
The first question is quite controversial, scientifically and otherwise. In examining
warming that would distinguish it from other kinds of warming, say an increase in solar
the global temperature record since 1880 many focus on a reported overall warming
insolation. One place to look for it is in the noctural cooling of a surface with very
of about 0.5°C as evidence for a greenhouse effect (Jim Hansen). Others, focusing
little overlying water vapor-a high-altitude desert, like the Gobi or Tibet, the
instead on the 25-year cooling period from 1940 to 1965, conclude that the
Bolivian altiplano, or Mauna Loa, Hawaii. One would expect to find a trend in the
greenhouse effect must be small (Hugh Ellsaesser, Patrick Michaels), with other
nocturnal cooling that could be compared with the simple one-dimensional theory.
influences on climate predominating: aerosols from volcanism or other sources (Reid
(See Appendix)
Bryson, Paul Handler); astronomical variations (Wally Broecker, P.R. Bell); solar
My approach to the project is both experimental and theoretical. Through Nathaniel
changes (Marshall Institute).
Guttman (NOAA), I hope to find the existence of records and then, working with
The second question is seldom asked; but there is no reason a priori why the same
appropriate collaborators, analyze them. At the same time, with the collaboration of
average change in global temperature should have the same kinds of consequences
Michael Schlesinger, I will analyze the results of his model calculations to look for the
The key point of this discussion is that the usual presentation of the data- as a global.
evidence of increasing nocturnal temperatures.
yearly average -hides important information. This point is pretty well accepted when
we discuss spatial averaging, as discussed originally by Will Kellogg (1989). After all.
FECTS OF AEROSOLS (PARTICULATES FROM HUMAN ACTIVITIES
it is the regional not the global effects of temperature and precipitation that matter
Everyone is familiar with the possibility of enhanced greenhouse effects from fossil
to people, through agriculture and other important human activities.
fuel burning. But it is important to investigate all possible human activities to
determine if they could have long-term consequences on climate change or on
But temporal averaging also hides important information. For example, super-hot
stratospheric ozone (See e.g. the stratospheric effects of human-produced methane;
summers, coupled with super-cold winters, produce the same annual average as would
a small seasonal variation but with obviously quite different impacts on ecology and
S.F. Singer, 1971).
a) Increased SO2 emissions (Pat Michaels) and increased biomass burning
human activities (Michaels, 1990).
(Joyce Pennen, Paul Crutzen) can increase the number of cloud nuclei,
Here, however, I want to focus on the diurnal temperature variation and compare two
cloudiness, optical albedo and thereby offset enhanced greenhouse warming.
specific mechanisms: 1) greenhouse effects and 2) solar change. I want to show that
b) Exhausts of high-altitude aircraft can create a cirrus veil that has a very small
the consequences can be quite different, and use the result to counteract the glil,
optical albedo but a large infrared opacity (See calculations by S.F. Singer
comparison, and equivalence, often made between a projected greenhouse warming
and historic temperature increases that may not be due to greenhouse gases.
81
1) In previous work on the nuclear winter phenomenon, I have analyzed the warming
CLIMATIC CHANGES AND WATER RESOURCES
produced by several greenhouse effects that were ignored in the original publications,
including the effects of stratospheric cirrus created by the initial nuclear bursts
Vujica Yevjevich
themselves (preceding the fires that lead to the smoke cloud). One simple test of this
Colorado State University
hypothesis is to look for a lessened nocturnal cooling of a high-altitude desert surface
PROJECT NO. 1:
(Singer, 1988; p. 237) where cooling proceeds mainly by infrared radiation into space.
Identification of Eventual Climatic Changes by Using River Runoff
Tom Karl has recently published temperature trends, separating yearly averages for
The current claims on climatic changes refer to temperature and precipitation.
day and night; the data show no daytime trend but a slight nocturnal increase (1989).
Outputs of climatic models predict the arid areas to become drier (greater temperature
While this result is not any confirmation of the hypothesis, it does suggest the
and smaller precipitation). Also, the general warming due to the greenhouse effect
presence of an enhanced greenhouse effect.
will melt some permanent snow and ice and raise the ocean level. As the river runoff
2) On the other hand, if the global warming were produced by an increase in solar
integrates precipitation and evaporation, it may serve as the monitoring variable on
radiation, then simple radiation theory would lead one to expect an increase in
whether the effect of warming increases or decreases the net water budget of a river
daytime temperatures, but no increasing trend in nocturnal temperatures for surfaces
basin. That is the reason for WMO to attempt to use river flows as an eventual control
where energy loss takes place by radiation.
variable of climatic change. At present, the German Hydrological Service gathers
and stores for WMO data on selected river gauging stations from all around the world.
The consequences would be very different too - reducing the diurnal temperature
swing in one case, increasing it in the other. In addition:
The use of runoff as the monitoring variable faces the basic problem of errors in data:
sampling, random, systematic errors, and particularly non-homogeneity caused by
1) Warmer nights would lengthen the growing season for crops. Coupled with
versatile human activities and natural disruptions. Monthly values seem to be less
higher than average precipitation and higher CO2 concentrations, this would
reliable than annual runoff. The crucial aspects for the accuracy of eventual
benefit agriculture greatly.
corrections for identified non-homogeneity, and selection of most change-discrimi-
nating statistical techniques. Figure 1 shows annual runoff series of the Rhine River
2) On the other hand, higher daytime temperatures may damage crops directly,
at Basle, Switzerland, 177 years of data (1808 1984), with mean annual values of
or by reducing soil moisture.
various periods. It does not show a significant change. Similar results are obtained
Before proceeding further it is important to test these ideas.
for annual runoff series of the Gota River in Sweden (with a period as long as the
a) We need nocturnal cooling curves for high-altitude deserts, like Tibet or the
Rhine River) and other rivers in Europe and the USA for periods of instrumentally
U.S. southwest, and study their trends as a function of time.
obtained data of 100 years or more.
b) We need to extract a diurnal temperature variation from global circulation
Very careful selection of stations, rigorous analysis and correction of data, and the best
models. In both spectral and finite-difference models the computational time-
statistical discrimination of change should be always used in research to substantiate
steps are quite short, less than an hour; but the diurnal cycle of radiation is
any reliable climatic change.
averaged over a much longer time, 24 or 12 hours. The surface temperature is
averaged over a month, season, or year, although a program could be developed
that performs a different averaging. It is important to see, whether a diurnal
PROJECT NO. 2:
Effects of Eventual Climatic Changes on Water Resources Systems
temperature variation can be extracted from the present GCM runs.
The world has invested tremendous capital into agriculture productivity, industrial
infrastructure and various water resources systems. The economic infrastructure
Kellog, W.W. 1989. "Carbon Dioxide and Climate Changes" in Global Climate Change;
maintains standards of living and supports the modern civilization. The basic
Human and Natural Influences (S.F. Singer, ed.), Paragon House, New York.
question here is how the claimed ongoing of forthcoming climatic changes would
affect these systems and infrastructure in general, and water resources in particular?
Michaels, P.J. 1990: Greenhouse disaster? Submitted to Science.
The arid areas (such as the Great Plains of the United States and the Prairies of
Canada) have attained a high level of agriculture productivity. If it comes out to be
Singer, S.F. 1988. Re-Analysisof the Nuclear Winter Phenomenon. Meteorol. Atmos.
Phys., 38, 228-239.
true that these areas with the climatic change would become much warmer and drier
than at present, the agriculture will suffer enormously. The basic question becomes
Singer, S. F. 1971. Stratospheric Water Vapor Increase due to Human Activities.
should all nations with arid areas of significant ongoing agriculture production start
Nature. 233, 543.
immediately to plan and implement massive irrigation projects, even with diversion
of water from large rivers hundreds and thousands of miles away? The dilemma then
becomes, either to completely stop further increase in greenhouse warming, with
immense investment, or to divert only a small portion of these investments into large
irrigation projects, to stabilize agriculture production at a still higher level than at
present (case of Great Plain)?
provided research data sets are rigorously selected, corrected for an evident non-
Furthermore, should outputs of existing water resources systems be revised according
homogeneity, and the best statistical methods used in discrimination of eventual
changes.
to predicted climate changes, and decrease or increase of future average production,
with economic aspects completely revised?
2. There is a widely recognized, high uncertainty on whether and how much
Prediction of forthcoming rise of sea level due to greenhouse warming poses a
the climatic changes due to the eventual warming of the atmosphere have already
fundamental question, namely whether defenses of coastal areas should be now
occurred or would occur in the future. Proposals, advanced in the public media by
planned and implemented, with the coastal water resources systems adjusted to this
some scientists, to start immediately with the reduction, and in the final phase with
change? Or, should one trust the claims that investment into a decrease of warming
the elimination, of emissions of carbon-based gases into the atmosphere, should be
should be proportionally much smaller than the cost of those adjustments?
very carefully investigated and even challenged. Simply, these gases may be more
beneficial than detrimental to the humanity and the Earth in the long run, because
when most of the carbon, at present locked in the upper crust of the Earth as fuels, was
Relationship of Sea Level and Continental Water Resources Developments
in the atmosphere, the Earth had the lushest biological cover which ever existed.
The budget of water retained on continents and islands is related to the budget of
3. Instead of investing billions of dollars to reduce the emission of carbon-based
water in the atmosphere and oceans. Reservoirs, ponds, increase of lake and aquifer
gases into the atmosphere, it looks much more attractive to use that capital for the
levels, irrigation and other water supplies, represent an increase in the continental
three basic activities, each with multiple benefits, namely: (i) reduction of chemicals
water budget and a decrease in ocean level. Overpumping of aquifers and drainage of
emitted into the air by industrial and energy productions, which create the acid rain,
swamps have an opposite effect. The first developments seem of much larger effect.
with all its consequences; (ii) increase of irrigation and other water supplies; and (iii)
This change in water budget due to human activities have received relatively little
significant increase of water stored in various unproductive spaces at the continental
surfaces and underground.
attention. it should be investigated carefully because the necessary data for it are
available. Future activities, such as building of reservoirs, increase of aquifer levels,
4. Elimination of noxious gases from the the air would protect the ozone layer,
irrigation and other water supplies, will represent a decrease of sea level. Apart from
eliminate destruction of forests, other biological cover, buildings, monuments, lakes,
the current needs for water storage, special research projects on this topic may become
etc., while the carbon-based gases, especially carbon dioxide, would increase forest
attractive due to significant transfer of ocean water to continents: 1. Use of large
and agriculture productivity worldwide.
depression for reservoirs (such as Qattara Depression, Dead Sea, etc.), with production
of power and sea water minerals, change in the arid microclimate, and sea level
5. By increasing irrigation areas in the world, say from the present 300 million
decrease; 2. Building of very large reservoirs in distant cold regions for hydropower
to the future 750 or more million hectares, not only would this be easier and safer to
and then production of hydrogen as the clean energy source; 3. Creation of large
sufficiently feed all the world population, but also water will be transferred from
reservoirs in desertic regions wherever feasible; 4. Increase of irrigation area from
oceans to continents and atmosphere, and thus would decrease or maintain the ocean
present 300 million to future 750 million hectares, as was doubled from 150 million
level, with the resulting increase in the average continental precipitation and river
runoff.
to 300 million after the second world war, for feeding of the world population; 5.
Planned recharge of large aquifers (such as the potential artificial water recharge of
6. By building many new large, medium, and small reservoirs on unproductive
the Ogallala aquifer in the Great Plains of the USA).
lands of the world, and by increasing lake levels and levels of aquifers, not only the
With the eventual warming of the lower atmosphere and large transfer of ocean water
production of clean energy would increase (hydroelectric power, associated clean
to continents through beneficial developments, the increased capacity of the air for
hydrogen energy production for industry and cars), but also many water resources and
moisture will also represent a corresponding decrease in ocean level. All the above
industrial problems could be solved, while at the same time decreasing or maintaining
the ocean level.
strategic approaches should be investigated with their physical and economic con-
sequences.
7. Instead of fighting only the uncertainly in model predictions of an important
ES FOR TESTING, AND CONCLUSIONS ON MERIT OF RESEARCH ON THE
new phenomenon, namely of eventual human-generated climatic change, with large
OJECTS
investment to only avoid something with no other benefits, the basic approach
should be to use all the benefits of likely unavoidable emissions of carbon-based gases
The above three projects are based on the following hypotheses to be tested and on
into the atmosphere and oceans, while fighting the negative aspects of eventual
the following conclusions to be verified:
climatic changes with these investments, and at the same time benefitting humanity
in multiple ways.
1. River runoff may represent the best variable to be used in detecting the
eventual changes, because of integration eventual changes in precipitation and
8. The above three projects of the relationship between the eventual climatic
evaporation, and integrated areal (regional, basin-wide) effect of eventual changes,
changes and water resources, with critical research approaches and results, should be
considered to be successful, if they only demonstrate that investment into the large-
We will determine tropospheric temperatures by calculating the 300-1000mb thick-
scale elimination of emissions of carbon dioxide and the other carbon-based gases, in
ness. This is done for the Northern Hemisphere on a monthly and yearly basis. We
order to fight uncertainty in predictions from climate models, would be a tremendous
have already reanalyzed seasonal means for 1966-1989, and have gained considerable
potential waste in resources, as well as, if they prove that the alternative are better
solutions than reducing these emissions. With it, the cost of these three research
experience with in dealing with this data stream.
projects will be much more productive than only paid off.
Specifically, using the annual averages of the 1966-89 analyses, the work by Weber
(1990) for 1977-1986 will be extended to the longer time frame. Appropriate sta-
RATIONS AND BUDGETS FOR THE THREE PROPOSED
tistical techniques will be applied to search for teleconnection patterns in the 300-
CTS
1000mb thickness field since 1966.
Project no. 1:
The analysis will then be extended to individual seasons. Particular emphasis will be
Identification of Eventual Climatic Changes by Using River Runoff
placed on the question of what impacts a warming originating in the tropics might
Duration of the project: four years, with the selected monitoring stations and the
have on circulation and temperature patterns in mid-latitudes. This analysis will
expected methodology for continual upgrading of results.
include time-lagged correlations in order to determine how regional temperature
Cost of the four year investigations: $400,000
anomalies evolve and progress from one season to the next, and in which way that
influences temperature and circulation patterns in different areas of the Northern
Project no. 2:
Hemisphere.
Effects of Eventual Climatic Changes on Water Resources Systems
We will then apply our methodology to the Southern Hemisphere in order to derive
Duration of the project: three years, with the basic assessments that would be the
regionalized tropospheric temperatures. Severe problems are expected because of the
physical and economic consequences of eventual climatic changes on the existing
paucity of data; but we expect that the pattern that will emerge will be more reliable
systems under various regional climatic conditions.
than the one used presently, which is clearly biased towards the continents-even to
Cost of the three year investigations: $300,000
a larger extent than the Northern Hemisphere. We will also search this pattern for
teleconnections similar to those sought in the Northern Hemisphere. There is also
the distinct possibility that temperature anomalies over the Southern Hemisphere
Project no. 3:
Relationship of the Sea Level and the Continental Water Resources Developments
continents may be reflections of ENSO events via a standing wave amplification in
the mid-latitudes over the Southern Hemisphere oceans. Inter-hemispheric com-
Duration of the project: three years, with the basic information how the needed and
parisons will be made as to the regions affected by warming or cooling.
vast water resources developments would affect the sea level, and the solution of
uncertainties in the prediction of the eventual climatic changes.
(Estimated cost $200,000)
Cost of the three year investigations: $300,000
Total cost of the investigations: $1,000,000
REGIONAL VARIATIONS AND REGIONAL INTERRELATIONS OF
TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES SINCE 1950
Gerd R. Weber
Coal Research Institute
teral Republic of Germany
ises
nerally conceded that there is a lack of correspondence between model-
sntual
and observed temperatures in the troposphere. In addition, temperature
unanity
itself isdifficult. For example, presently derived tropospheric temperatures
ds data rich continental areas. There are substantial indications that
erature trends over data poor regions (such as the oceans) may in
entual results, nent should the
è over data rich regions.
85
sently derived tropospheric temperature trends may slow a larger
recent decades than has actually occurred. Consequently, an elucidation
.eal magnitude of warming may in fact counter some claims of disastrous
87
.ning.
FEB-04-1992 15:15
FROM
TO
93953719 P.13
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THE NEW CFC TAX
The Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1989 imposes a new excise tax on certain ozone-depleting chemicals and on im-
ports of products made with or containing such chemicals. The Treasury Department and the IRS have begun the process of im-
plementing the new tax and expect to publish guidance for taxpayers on a variety of issues relating to the tax before the end of
1989.
The following is an explanation of the new tax. The explanation is based on the best information currently available. Until the
IRS publishes guidance on the tax, however, a number of the issues discussed in this paper will remain uncertain. Before making
business decisions that could be affected by the resolution of these issues. taxpayers should seek independent professional advice,
Taxable Chemicals
Taxable Events
The bill defines eight chemicals as ozone-depleting
The tax is imposed in three instances:
chemicals and applies the new tax 9 them. The eight chemi-
Sale or use by manufacturer. producer. or importer.
cals are those subject to production limitations under the
The principal taxable event is the sale of ozone-depiet-
Montreal Protocol and the implementing EPA regulations.
ing chemicals after December 31, 1989. by the manufac-
The chemicals are the following:
turer. producer, or importer of the chemicals. The tax
also will apply where the manufacturer, producer, or im-
porter of ozone-depleting chemicals uses the chemicals
CFC-11
(trichlorofluoromethane)
after December 31, 1989, instead of selling them.
CFC-12
(dichlorodifluoromethane)
Sale or use of imported products for which ozone-
CFC-113
(trichlorotrifluoroethane
depleting chemicals are production material. In order
CFC-114
(1, 2-dichloro-1 1, 2,
to reach indirect imports of ozone-depleting chemicals.
the tax applies to the sale or use by an importer, after
tetrafluoroethane)
December 31, 1989. of imported products for which any
CFC-115
(chioropentafluoroethane)
ozone-depleting chemical is used as material in the
Halon-1211
(bromochlorodifluoromethane)
manufacture or production process.
Halon-1301
(bromotrifluoromethane)
Ownership of floor stocks. The tax is imposed on
stocks of ozone-depleting chemicals owned by any per-
*Methyl Halon-2402 deleroform (dibromotetrafluoroethane) t calton det were added 1991- in
son (other than the manufacturer, producer or importer
of the chemicals) on January 1. 1990 if the chemicals are
held for sale or for use in further manufacture. The tax
Additions to this list of taxable chemicals can be made
also is imposed on stocks of taxable chemicals held for
only by Congress. Therefore if other chemicals become sub-
the same purposes on January 1 of each year 1991
ject to the Montreal Protocol or to other production limita-
through 1994 if the tax rate for such chemicals increases
tions, those chemicals would not be subject to the tax unless
on that date.
Congress takes legislative action.
These three taxable events are explained in more
The bill excludes from the definition of ozone-depleting
detail below.
chemicals those chemicals produced outside the United
States and not imported into the United States. Thus, ozone-
Persons Required To Remit the Tax to the IRS
depleting chemicals produced outside the United States by a
U.S. taxpayer are not subject to the tax unless imported into
the United States.
Regular tax on sale or use. The producer, manufac-
turer or importer of the chemicals is liable to the IRS for
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the regular tax upon the sale or use of the chemicals by
chemicals subject to the tax. changes in the ozone-depletion
such person.
factors can result only from Congressional action.
Imported products. The importer of taxable imported
products is liable to the IRS for the tax upon the sale or
Application of the Tax on Sales by the Producer
use of such products by the importer.
Floor stocks. The owner of the chemicals on January 1
of each applicable year is liable to the IRS for the floor
In the case of the regular tax on sales of ozone-depleting
stocks tax.
chemicals by the producer. the bill applies the tax to the
quantity actually "sold." Thus, for example, under the
plain meaning of the bill. tank truck heels and other
Calculation of Amount of Tax
similar quantities are not taxable until and unless they
are sold.
The amount of the tax is determined under the following
Although the bill is silent on the precise calculation of a
formula:
producer's taxable sales volume, the normal procedure
in the case of other federal excise taxes is to calculate the
Base Tax Ozone-Depletion
volume on a net basis - that is. gross sales volume less
Pounds of
returns and adjustments. An IRS official has indicated
informally that this normal calculation should apply.
Tax #
Amount X Factor X Chemicals
In calculating the tax, fractions of pounds of chemicals
are not rounded. The partial pounds are multiplied by
This formula applies in all instances and to all ozone-
the same ozone-depletion factor and base tax amount as
depleting chemicals except, as described in more detail
whole pounds.
below, halons and chemicals used in the manufacture of rigid
The bill is silent on the issue of when a sale is deemed to
foam insulation. Thus, the formula applies in the normal
occur for purposes of the tax. In the absence of specific
case of the sale or use of chemicals by the producer, in the
rules, general tax rules probably would apply. Under the
case of the floor stocks tax. and in the case of imported
general rules. the IRS examines the substance. not the
products. In the latter case, the formula applies to the quan-
form. of a transaction to determine whether a sale has oc-
tities of ozone-depleting chemicals used as material in the
curred. In such an examination, a sale generally is
manufacture or production of the imported products.
deemed to occur when the benefits and burdens of
ownership are transferred. not merely when paper
evidence of the sale is executed. This standard also
Base Tax Amount
would be relevant for determining ownership of taxable
chemicals for purposes or the floor stocks tax.
The bill designates a specific base tax amount for the
years 1990-1994 and provides for an increase of 45 cents for
each year beyond 1994. The base amounts through 1999 are
as follows:
Application of the Tax on Imported Products
1990
$1.37
1995
$ 3.10
1991
1.37
1996
3.55
For imported products. the bill provides that the tax is
1992
1.67
1997
4.00
equal to the amount of tax which would be imposed if
the chemicals that were used as material in the manufac-
1993
2.65
1998
4.45
ture or production of the products had been sold in the
1994
2.65
1999
4.90
United States.
Ozone-Depletion Factors
To calculate the quantity of chemicals used as material
in the manufacture or production of imported products,
the Secretary of the Treasury is directed in the bill to
Each ozone-depletion factor represents the comparative
choose one of three methods:
potential ozone-depletion resulting from the same weight of a
given chemical. The factors are as follows:
A. Data Provided by Importer. The Secretary can
accept data the importer supplies showing the
CFC-11
1.0
Halon 1211
3.0
volume of chemicals used as material in the produc-
CFC-12
1.0
Halon 1301
10.0
tion process.
CFC-113
0.8
Halon 2402
6.0
CFC-114
1.0
B. Domestic Industry Norms. If the importer fails
CFC-115
to provide sufficient data, the Secretary can calculate
0.6
the chemical amounts based on standards of use in
the equivalent domestic industry.
The ozone-depletion factors designated in the statute are
those specified in the Montreal Protocol. Like the list of
December 1989
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93953719 P.15
C. Five Percent of Appraised Value. The bill also
Assuming the above interpretation of the term "use in
provides char, if necessary, the Secretary can bypass
further manufacture is correct. then, as an example.
the foregoing procedures and impose a tax equal to
stocks of chemicals held for use as a solvent in a
five percent of the value of the imported product.
manufacturing process probably would be taxable, as
This provision is intended to serve primarily as an in.
would stocks of chemicals held by a manufacturer of
centive for importers to come forward with evidence
refrigeration equipment for use as a refrigerant in equip-
as to the amount of ozone-depleting chemicals in
ment made by the company. However, stocks of chemi-
their products.
cals held for use other than a direct use in a
manufacturing process for example, stocks of chemi-
Treasury Department economists have begun work to
cals held for use in cooling systems for a factory
compile a list of imported products for which ozone-
probably would not be taxable. Stocks of chemicals held
depleting chemicals are used in the production process.
for use in routine factory maintenance also might not be
taxable.
and to determine the average quantity of the chemicals
SO used in each product.
The bill is drafted to apply the floor stocks tax only to
ozone-depleting chemicals themselves and not to
products that contain ozone-depleting chemicals (in con-
The Secretary of the Treasury also is authorized to
trast with the treatment of imports). Thus, generally
prescribe regulations exempting products that use de
speaking. the IRS probably does not have the power to
minimis amounts of ozone-depleting chemicals as
apply the tax to such products. In administering the tax,
material in the production process. However, no such de
however, the IRS probably does have the power to
minimis exception applies if the ozone-depleting chemi
prevent taxpayers from abusing the purpose of the floor
cals are used for purposes of refrigeration or air con-
stocks tax through abnormal business practices.
ditioning, creating an aerosol or foam, or manufacturing
electronic components.
The bill is stient as to the tax treatment of chemical
blends consisting partly of taxable chemicals and partly
Application of the Floor Stocks Tax
of non-taxable chemicals. The IRS also has not indi-
cated any position on this issue.
As stated previously, the floor stocks tax is imposed on
The IRS is expected to publish guidance on the payment
January 1 of each year 1990 through 1994 on any ozone-
procedures for the floor stocks tax by the end of the year.
depleting chemical owned by any person (other than the
As in virtually all other federal taxes, it is expected that
manufacturer, producer, or importer) on such date and
the responsibility for reporting and paying the tax will be
held for sale or for use in further manufacture. The
the taxpayer's. In other words, the taxpayer's legal
amount of the floor stocks tax is as follows:
liability to pay the tax arises under the legislation and
will not depend on identification or contact of the tax-
1990: The amount of tax that would have been im-
payer by the IRS. According to an IRS official, the floor
posed if the chemical had been sold during 1990.
stocks tax probably will be payable on IRS form 720.
1991-1994: The excess of the tax that would have
which is the excise tax return. The IRS will revise the
been imposed On the sale of the chemical by
form to accommodate the floor stocks tax.
the manufacturer, producer or importer on January 1
The following are examples of the computation of the
of that year. over the tax, if any, previously imposed
floor stocks tax:
on the chemical.
A. A dealer holds 200 pounds of CFC-115 for sale
The floor stocks tax is applicable to wholesalers,
on January 1. 1990. The floor stocks tax will equal
retailers, distributors, contractors, and any other type of
$164.40 ($1.37 X 0.6 X 200).
business that holds stocks of ozone-depleting chemicals
for sale or for use in further manufacture.
B. ABC Company holds 300 pounds of CPC-12 on
January 1, 1993 for use in further manufacture. ABC
The bill contains no exemption from the floor stocks tax
Company purchased the chemical in June 1992. The
for small businesses or for businesses that hold de mini-
floor stocks tax will equal $294. That amount is the
mis quantities of chemicals. The IRS is considering the
possibility of instituting exemptions administra-tively.
difference between the tax that would be imposed if
the initial sale of the chemical had occurred on
The tax applies only to stocks of chemicals held for sale
January 1, 1993, $795 ($2.65 X 1.0 X 300) and the tax
or for use in further manufacture. However, the bill does
previously imposed in 1992. $501 ($1.67 X 1.0
not contain 8 definition of the term "use in further
300).
manufacture." The term probably is best read as denot-
ing direct, proximate use in an actual manufacturing
C. A dealer holds 400 pounds of halon 1211 for
sale on January 1. 1990. No floor stocks tax is im-
process. (If the bill had been intended to have a broader
posed because, under the bill, halon 1211 is not
meaning, it probably would have been drafted to apply
to stocks held "by" a manufacturer or simply "by" any
treated as an ozone-depleting chemical until January
1, 1991.
business.) An IRS official has informally agreed with
this conclusion; it is unclear. however, as to whether the
D. A dealer holds 400 pounds of halon 1211 for
IRS will publish any detailed guidance on this issue in
sale on January 1, 1991. The floor stocks tax will
the near future.
equal $100. That amount is the difference between
the tax that would be imposed if the initial sale of the
Page 3
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halon had occurred on January 1, 1991, $100 (25
the producer to the exempt user and on sales to a
cents/lb. X 400 lbs.) and the tax already imposed, $0.
wholesaler or distributor who intends to resell to the ex-
empt user.
E. XYZ Company holds 500 pounds of halon 2402
on January 1. 1994. XYZ Company purchased the
The exemption for sales of ozone-depleting chemicals
chemical in 1992. The floor stocks tax will equal
for feedstock use applies only if the parties to the transac-
$7,825. That amount represents the difference be-
tions meet registration requirements to be prescribed by
tween the tax that would be imposed if the initial sale
the Secretary of the Treasury. See the separate discus-
of the chemical had occurred on January 1, 1994.
sion of the registration requirements below
$7,950 ($2.65 X 6.0 X 500) and the tax previously im-
If tax is actually paid on chemicals used as a feedstock.
posed on the sale of the halon 2402 to XYZ Com-
the user is permitted to obtain a refund of the tax from
pany in 1992. $125 (25 cents/lb. X 500 lbs.) Note:
the IRS.
No floor stocks tax was imposed in January 1, 1993
because the tax rate for halons, 25 cents/lb., remained
the same.
Export Exemption
Exemptions from the Tax
The bill provides producers of ozone-depleting chemi-
cais with a partial exemption for exports. The exemp-
tion consists of a base portion and an additional portion.
The bill provides five full or partial exemptions from the
The base portion of the export exemption is the percent-
tax. as follows:
age of the producer's yearly production equal to the per-
Chemicals produced from recycling.
centage of production the producer exported in 1986.
Chemicals used as feedstocks.
The percentage calculation of the base portion is made
Exports.
using ozone-depletion factor adjusted pounds, as foi.
lows:
Halons.
Percentage Allowed =
Chemicals used in the manufacture of rigid foam insula-
1986 Ozone-deplerion factor adjusted pounds exported
tion.
1986 Ozone-depletion factor adjusted pounds produced.
These exemptions apply in all instances where the tax ap-
Ozone-depletion factor adjusted pounds (ODFAPs) are
plies (i.e., the regular tax on sale or use, the tax on imported
calculated by multiplying the number of pounds of each
chemical (pounds exported if calculating the numerator;
products, and the floor stocks tax). The exemptions are ex.
plained below. Note that no exemption exists for sales of
pounds produced if calculating the denominator) by the
chemicals to a federal, state. or local governmental agency.
chemical's ozone-depletion factor. The ODFAPs for
each of the eight chemicals are then added together to
determine the total ozone-depletion factor adjusted
Recycling exemption
pounds.
The bill provides that the determination of the level of
exports of each producer for 1986 is to be determined
The bill fully and permanently exempts from the tax
based on data published by the EPA.
chemicals diverted or recovered in the United States as
part of a recycling process. In effect, this exemption
The second part of the export exemption relates to
simply treats a recycling operation as not production or
production increases destined for export Under the
manufacture of ozone-depleting chemicals for purposes
Montreal Protocol and implementing rules. the EPA is
of the tax.
authorized to grant additional production allowances to
U.S. producers for the explicit purpose of export. Those
Chemicals recovered by the original producer of the
exports are exempt from the tax.
chemicals from loading operations, tank truck heels, and
similar sources probably do not qualify for the recycling
The bill indicates in a cross reference that producers of
exemption (assuming such chemicals had not previously
ozone-depleting chemicals have the discretion to transfer
been taxed). Such chemicals probably would be treated
part of their export exemptions to third parties.
as normal taxable chemicals when sold-by the producer
Ozone-depleting chemicals used as a material in the
thereof.
manufacture of products that are exported are not ex-
empt from tax under the bill.
Feedstock Exemption
Halon Exemption
The bill also fully and permanently exempts from the tax
any ozone-depleting chemical used and entirely con-
Halons receive favorable treatment through 1993. After
sumed in the manufacture or production of any other
1993, they are treated the same as all other ozone-deplet-
chemical.
ing chemicals. The treatment for 1990-1993 is as fol-
The bill implements the feedstock exemption by permit-
lows:
ting sales of chemicals for feedstock use to be made tax-
free. The exemption applies both on direct sales from
December 1989
Page 4
FEB-04-1992 15:19 FROM
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93953719
P.17
1590. rull sares and uses of halons are exempt from
will be put to a tax-preferred use. The IRS would
tax. The term "ozone-depleting chemical" does not
prescribe the form and content of the certificate and
include halon-1211, halon-1301 or halon-2402 for
would require that the certificate be signed under penalty
the year 1990.
of perjury. The purchaser would prepare and sign the
certificate and deliver it to the producer.
1991-93: Taxed at a rate of 25 cents per pound.
Once received by the producer in proper form, the certifi-
without adjustment for ozone-depletion factor.
cate would entitle the producer to sell chemicals to the
(Note: the bull actually expresses this preferential rate
purchaser at the preferential tax rate applicable to the use
in terms of varying percentages of each year's
declared in the certificate. The producer would not need
regular tax rate, rather than as 2 25-cent-per-pound
to exercise judgment as to whether the purchaser was
rate.)
legally entitled to the preferential rate and would not be
subject to an IRS challenge for having relied upon the
certificate in failing to collect the full tax from the pur-
Rigid Foam Insulation Exemption
chaser.
The purchaser would be fully subject to IRS audit to
Chemicals used or sold for use in the manufacture of
determine the validity of its claim for a-preferential tax
rigid foam insulation receive preferential treatment
rate, and IRS penalties would apply in the case of im-
through 1993.
proper claims.
Procedurally, this preferential treatment is structured in
precisely the same manner as the feedstock exemption,
Payment Schedules
so that producers are permitted to sell chemicals at the
preferential rate for use in making rigid foam insulation.
Such sales can be made both to direct users and to
The initial payment for taxes on the sale or use of ozone-
wholesalers and distributors who intend to resell to rigid
depleting chemicals and imported products is due April
foam makers. As in the feedstock exemption, the IRS
1, 1990.
will impose registration requirements that must be fol-
The IRS will issue guidance mandating a payment
lowed in order for sales to be permissible at the preferen-
schedule beyond April 1, 1990. The likely period will
tial rate. (See the discussion below.) In cases where
be semi-monthly with the taxes required to be deposited
sales are not made at the preferential rate, purchasers of
within nine days after the end of each semi-monthly
chemicals who use the chemicals in the making of rigid
period.
foam insulation are permitted to obtain a refund of the
excess tax paid.
The floor stocks tax is due April 1 of each year.
The preferential treatment for chemicals used in the
manufacture of rigid foam insulation is as follows:
IRS Enforcement
1990: Complete exemption.
1991-93: Taxed at a rate of 25 cents per pound,
The normal IRS tools for enforcing other taxes apply to
without adjustment for ozone-depletion factor.
the new CFC tax. For example, the IRS will have the
(Note, as in the case of the halon exemption. the bill
authority to impose penalties ranging from five percent
actually expresses this preferential rate in terms of
of underpayments for negligence, to 75 percent of under-
varying percentages of each year's regular tax rate,
payments for civil fraud, and to fines or imprisonment
rather than as a 25-cent-per-pound rate).
for criminal fraud.
The bill does not define the term "rigid foam insulation."
The IRS probably will pay particular attention to polic-
According to an IRS official, the IRS is aware of several
ing the exemptions from the tax. In other words, the IRS
issues that have arisen in interpreting the term, but has
will seek to ensure that chemicals purchased tax-free for
not yet resolved the issues.
an exempt purpose are so used.
Registration Requirement for Feedstock and
Rigid Form Exemptions
The IRS is expected to provide guidance by the end of
the year as to the registration requirement for the
feedstock and rigid foam exemptions.
This document was prepared by James C. Gould. a partner in
According to an IRS official. it is likely that, at least for
the Washington, D.C. law firm of Vinson & Elkins.
the short-term, the IRS will prescribe a system of exemp-
bon certificates in lieu of a comprehensive system for ac-
rually registering producers and purchasers with the IRS.
An exemption certificate would be, essentially, 8 declara-
tion by the purchaser of chemicals that such chemicals
Page 5
December 1989
This Week in
SCiENCE
Origins of agriculture
respond to falls in global sea level of 0.2
first grew in the bone marrow and later
to 0.7 millimeter/year. Zwally discusses
spread to the spleen, liver, and kidneys,
S humans progress from foragers
how ice sheet mass, sea level, and cli-
just as they do in diseased children. As
to farmers, three important tran-
mate are related: over the short term,
disease advanced, and again in keeping
sitions occur in their relations
global warming could produce more
with the human pattern, the leukemic
with plant foods: once wild plants are
precipitation and greater ice accumula-
cells metastasized to the mouse's brain,
domesticated, a food-producing econo-
tions at Greenland and Antarctica and
lungs, intestines, and pancreas. If in-
my comes into being, and production
thus a drop in sea level; over longer
deed the pattern of tumor cell differen-
focuses on a small number of crops. In
periods, however, the dynamic response
tiation and metastasis in mice is faithful
eastern North America, these mile-
of the glaciers to warmer temperatures
to that in children, the SCID mice
stones in human-plant relations were
and increased precipitation is less clear,
could become valuable adjuncts in the
reached centuries apart (page 1566).
and sea-level rises could occur if the
management of individual cases of leu-
The first indications that humans were
glaciers start flowing faster.
kemia. The course of disease in a child
intervening in plant life cycles appear
might be predicted from its course in
between 2000 and 1000 B.C.: morpho-
the mice, treatment protocols could be
logic signs in seed specimens suggest
Recoil aspiration
evaluated in mice, and the success of
that a form of squash, a sunflower, and
chemotherapies could be determined by
two other plant crops had been domes-
MPHIBIANS and air-breathing
injecting patient's cells into mice and
ticated. Later, between 250 B.C. and
nonpolypterid fishes breathe by
searching for growth of tumor cells.
A.D. 200, the trend toward food-pro-
pulse pumping: the buccal cavity
ducing economies became widespread.
of the mouth fills with air, and when the
And, between A.D. 800 and 1100,
mouth is closed air is forced into the
RNA editing
when complex sociopolitical changes
lungs. In contrast, birds, mammals, and
were taking place, maize was intro-
reptiles breathe by aspiration: their
S the evening primrose using a non-
duced from tropical regions and became
lungs expand first and air is then sucked
standard genetic code or is it doing
the major crop and food. This history,
in. Although primitive air-breathing
some unusual editing of its RNA?
presented by Smith, represents a syn-
polypterid fishes lack the structures
The question arose as a result of obser-
thesis of information from the archeolo-
thought to be essential for aspiration
vations by Hiesel et al. that there was
gic record and from measurements
(diaphragms and movable ribs), they
not exact correspondence between the
(with new techniques) of ages and char-
too have been found to breathe by a
sequences of nucleotides in certain mi-
acteristics of seed samples, human
form of aspiration (page 1593). High-
tochondrial genes and in the comple-
bones, artifacts, and other relevant ma-
speed x-ray pictures of mouths and
mentary DNA molecules patterned on
terials. The work firmly establishes east-
lungs and measurements of air pressure
messenger RNA molecules made from
ern North America as an independent
in the fishes' pleuroperitoneal cavities
those genes (page 1632). Specifically,
center of plant domestication.
show that air is exhaled when the bony-
the nucleotide cytosine (C) in the genes
scaled "jacket" or integument actively
was frequently represented by thvmi-
deforms and is inhaled as the integu-
dine (T) in complementary DNA mole-
Thickening Greenland
ment passively recoils. Brainerd et al.
cules; had editing not occurred, the
ice sheet
note that recoil aspiration may have
sequences of the complementary DNA
been used by the earliest amphibians,
and the DNA of the gene should have
C
HANGES in the volume of ice
who, like their air-breathing fish ances-
been identical. The replacements of
stored on continental ice sheets
tors and the polypterid fishes, had ven-
some (but not all) of the Cs by Ts were
greatly affect global sea level be-
tral bony scales.
found not only in the coding regions of
cause the sheets are so massive. Satellite
the genes but also in those parts of the
radar measurements now indicate that
genes that do not get translated; the
the Greenland ice sheet south of 72°N
SCID mice and childhood
rate of such exchanges was about I in
has been thickening by about 0.23 me-
leukemia
58 nucleotides. The changes in the cod-
ter/year since 1975 (pages 1587 and
ing region were not silent but led to the
1589). The measurements of ice surface
system for evaluating the pro-
insertion of different amino acids in the
elevation were made with altimeters on
gression of acute lymphoblastic
protein products; interestingly, the af-
three satellites; elevation changes were
leukemia, the most prevalent
fected amino acids were ones that
calculated from comparisons of data
form of leukemia in children, has been
proved to be highly conserved in evolu-
obtained during different orbits. De-
devised by Kamel-Reid et al. (page
tion. How the editing occurs (perhaps
pending on whether the ice sheet north
1597). When cultured cells derived
through some chemical modification)
of 72°N is also thickening and whether
from a leukemic child were injected into
and whether it is a common or an
thickening is a recent or long-term phe-
SCID mice (mice with severe combined
unusual phenomenon remain to be de-
nomenon, the mass increase could cor-
immune-deficiency disease), the cells
termined.
RUTH LEVY GUYER
22 DECEMBER 1989
THIS WEEK IN SCIENCE 1539
4. K. Tanaka et al., Rapid Commun. Mass Spectrom. 2,
151 (1988).
11. L. Q. Huang, R. J. Conzemius, G. A. Junk, R. S.
Houk, Anal. Chem. 60, 1490 (1988).
rough surfaces. Ranges are obtained at 0.66-
5. M. Karas, D. Bachman, U. Bahr, F. Hillenkamp, Int.
J. Mass Spectrom. Ion Processes 78, 53 (1987).
12. M. Karas, A. Ingendoh, U. Bahr, F. Hillenkamp,
km intervals along the satellite tracks; there-
6. M. Karas and F. Hillenkamp, Anal. Chem. 60, 2299
Biomed. Environ. Mass Spectrom. 18, 841 (1989).
13. J. L. Wiebers, in High Performance Mass Spectrometry:
fore, successive footprints overlap by 40%
(1988).
7. P. Williams and B. U.R. Sundqvist, Phys. Rev. Lett.
Chemical Applications, M. L. Gross, Ed. (ACS Sym-
or more. Surface elevations at the crossover
58, 1031 (1987).
posium Series 70, American Chemical Society,
point are obtained by interpolation. Deter-
8. D. Fenyo et al., J. Phys. (Paris) 2, 33 (1989).
Washington, DC, 1978), p. 248.
14. The work of D.E.L. was supported under NIH
mination of the absolute surface elevation at
9. J. B. Fenn, in Applied Atomic Collision Physics, H. S.
grants RCDA CA 00911 and GM 37788. R.W.N.
satellite nadir would require correction for
W. Massey, E. W. McDaniel, B. Bederson, Eds.
was partly supported by personal funds (P.W.). We
349-378. (Academic Press, New York, 1982), vol. 5, pp.
the slope-induced offset of the pulse-limited
are deeply indebted to J. D. Gust for allowing us free
10. R. Kelly and R. W. Dreyfus, Nucl. Instrum. Methods
access to the laser system.
footprint from nadir (6), which is caused by
Phys. Res. B 32, 341 (1988).
the tendency of the pulse-limited footprint
21 July 1989; accepted 18 October 1989
to be located at the closest surface lying
within the larger "beam-limited" footprint,
which is ten times the size of the pulse-
limited footprint (5). However, for the pur-
Growth of Greenland Ice Sheet: Measurement
pose of studying elevation changes, correc-
tion for slope-induced errors is not necessary
because the pulse-limited footprint is usually
H. JAY ZWALLY, ANITA C. BRENNER, JUDY A. MAJOR,
located at the same place on the surface
ROBERT A. BINDSCHADLER, JAMES G. MARSH
during successive transits.
We corrected surface elevations for varia-
Measurements of ice-sheet elevation change by satellite altimetry show that the
tions in the effective atmospheric path
Greenland surface elevation south of 72° north latitude is increasing. The vertical
length, earth tides, and lags in the automatic
velocity of the surface is 0.20 ± 0.06 meters per year from measured changes in surface
radar-pulse tracking circuitry of the altime-
elevations at 5906 intersections between Geosat paths in 1985 and Seasat in 1978, and
ter (3, 4). For GEOS-3 and Seasat, residual
0.28 + 0.02 meters per year from 256,694 intersections of Geosat paths during a 548-
errors in the radial position of the satellite
day period of 1985 to 1986.
with respect to the center of the earth are
reduced by reference of the orbital positions
to a common ocean surface derived from the
D
ETERMINATION OF THE BALANCE
H₂ H₁ + E, where H₂ and H₁ are the
between mass input and outflow of
Seasat and GEOS-3 altimeter data. After
surface elevations during successive orbits at
the polar ice sheets is needed for
orbit adjustment, the SD of the elevation
times t₂ and t₁, respectively, and E is the
understanding of the ice-sheet response to
differences is 4.7 m for GEOS-3-GEOS-3
random measurement error from a distribu-
climate change and the contributions to sea-
crossovers and 1.0 m for Seasat-Seasat cross-
tion with a SD. The error for each elevation
level rise or fall. Measurement of elevation
measurement is E/V₂, which includes errors
overs. The standard errors for single mea-
change by satellite altimetry offers a method
surements are 3.3 m for GEOS-3 and 0.70
in the altimeter-range measurement and in
of determining changes in ice volume and
m for Seasat. The calculated SD for GEOS-
determination of the vertical position of the
therefore mass balance (1). The 3-year oper-
3-Seasat differences is 3.4 m. Precise orbit
orbit. The magnitude of E is determined
ation of GEOS-3 radar altimeter from April
information over ice-covered areas is includ-
from analysis for which (H₂ H₁) are
1975 to June 1978 (2), followed by the 3-
ed with the Geosat data (7). The SD of the
small. Although E is usually larger than
month operation of the Seasat radar altime-
elevation differences at 16,250 Geosat-Geo-
actual elevation changes, average changes
ter from July to September 1978, provided a
sat crossovers for which the time difference
can be obtained over areas of the ice sheet
time series of ice elevations, but the preci-
between measurements is <15 days is 1.49
for time periods in which there are a suffi-
sion and spatial coverage of GEOS-3 was
m. The Geosat single-measurement error is
ciently large number of measurements.
limited. The U.S. Navy Geosat radar altime-
therefore 1.05 m. In these analyses, cross-
The range measured (Fig. 1) is to the
ter (3), which was launched in March 1985,
over differences greater than 10 m were
average surface elevation in the "pulse-limit-
has provided a large number of recent repet-
discarded (15 m for GEOS-3) (8). The
ed" footprint [maximum circular area from
itive measurements. We have determined
relative SD for Geosat-Seasat differences is
which radar reflection is simultaneously re-
changes in ice-surface elevations using data
therefore 1.26 m. The remaining errors are
ceived by the altimeter (2, 5)]. The mini-
from GEOS-3, Seasat, and the first 18
mainly a combination of altimeter measure-
mum pulse-limited footprint is 3.6 km in
months of Geosat. The estimated change in
ment error over irregular surfaces and resid-
diameter for the GEOS-3 altimeter and 1.6
ice volume and its significance is discussed
ual orbit errors.
km for both the Seasat and Geosat altime-
in a companion paper (4).
Two methods were used to obtain the rate
Changes in surface elevation were deter-
ters, over smooth surfaces and larger over
of change of surface elevation from a set of
mined where successive sub-satellite paths
intersect (Fig. 1). The measured elevation
Satellite
difference at a crossover point is dH =
Fig. 1. Crossover method for mea-
O(t,)
orbits
suring changes in surface elevation,
O(t₂)
S(t), from radar-altimeter measured
Ranges
elevations, H(t), on successive or-
H. J. Zwally and R. A. Bindschadler, Oceans and Ice
bital paths (O) of the satellite. Hor-
Branch, Code 671, National Aeronautics and Space
izontal location of the crossover
Horizon
Administration (NASA), Goddard Space Flight Center,
S(t)
Greenbelt, MD 20771.
point is determined within a few
A.C. Brenner and J. A. Major, ST Systems Corporation,
meters. The relative error, E, for
Ground tracks
4400 Forbes Way, Lanham, MD 20706.
measurement of elevation change,
S(t,)
+ Ev2
J. G. Marsh, Space Geodesy Branch, Code 626, NASA,
dH, at a single crossover is about
AH(t)=H₂-H₁+E
Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771.
1.4 m.
Pulse-limited
footprint
22 DECEMBER 1989
REPORTS 1587
Table 1. Average rates of change in ice-sheet elevation and relative error at a single crossover of the
0.60
satellite radar altimeters. N, number of crossovers.
0.50
dH/dt
Maximum
Relative
Satellite
N
Interval
(m/year)
dt (years)
GEOS-3-Seasat
0.11 ± 0.14
3.2
April 1975 to June 1978
3.4
Geosat-Seasat
0.20 + 0.06
7.0
July 1978 to October 1985
1.26
April 1985 to September 1986
1.49
Elevation difference (m)
0.40
error (m)
0.30
657
0.20
5,906
Geosat-Geosat
256,694
0.28 ± 0.02
1.5
0.10
0.00
-0.10
-60
0
60
120
180
240
300
360
420
480
540
600
crossover measurements. If a sufficient num-
We first applied the dH/dt method to
Time difference (days)
ber of measurements were made during two
GEOS-3 and Seasat data, which extended to
65.1°N and 72.07°N, respectively. The aver-
Fig. 3. Average dHᵢ of Fig. 2 in 30-day intervals
distinct periods separated by a relatively
versus dt (see text). Nonlinear components caused
large time interval (dt), then the surface
age rate of increase in surface elevation
by seasonal effects are smaller than the linear trend
velocity is the average crossover height dif-
south of 65.1°N obtained from 525 cross-
of 0.28 m/year.
ference divided by the time interval
over differences was 0.35 ± 0.17 m/year (9).
[Σ(H₂ H₁)ᵢ/N)/dt, where (H₂ H₁)ᵢ is
Subsequent analysis with 127 more cross-
the elevation difference at the ith crossover
overs gave a dH/dt of 0.11 + 0.14 m/year
In our analysis, dH = Hₐ - Hd, where Hₐ
(Table 1). The SD of the 657 dHᵢ values
is the elevation obtained on the orbit path
and N is the number of crossovers]. This
method is appropriate for comparing the 3
with respect to the linear fit is 3.48 m,
ascending in latitude and Hd is the elevation
months of Seasat measurements with Geosat
consistent with the 3.40-m estimated rela-
on the path descending in latitude, regard-
measurements made 7 years later.
tive error (Table 1). A similar analysis of
less of whether ta > td or ta < td. The dH
The second method, the dH/dt method, is
626 GEOS-3-GEOS-3 crossovers gave a
intercept at dt = 0, obtained by averaging all
appropriate for a set of crossovers that tend
dH/dt of 0.07 ± 0.23 m/year. Although
dHᵢ for which Idtᵢ| < 15 days, gives an as-
to have randomly distributed time intervals.
these three values of dH/dt are positive and
cending-descending orbit bias equal to
The slope of a linear fit to the crossover
overlap within 1 SD, the confidence regard-
-0.48 ± 0.01 m. This bias indicates that
differences, dHᵢ = (H₂ - H₁)ᵢ, versus their
ing ice-sheet thickening based on these data
Geosat descending orbit calculations are sys-
time intervals, dtᵢ = (t₂ gives the
alone is not high.
tematically too high relative to ascending
thickening (dH/dt > 0) or thinning rate
The dH/dt analysis for 548 days of Geosat
orbits in the vicinity of Greenland.
(dH/dt < 0). In this method, we implicitly
measurements between 1 April 1985 and 30,
Although the dH/dt method reduces the
assume that dH/dt is a linear function of time
September 1986 (Fig. 2) gives 0.284 ±
effect of possible seasonal variations in the
and that the data are randomly distributed
0.004 m/year for 256,694 crossover differ-
measured elevation, a seasonal modulation
about a linear trend. The SE of the slope and
ences. The ice sheet area covered is from the
in the deviation of the dHᵢ values about the
the SD of the points about the linear fit can
southern tip of Greenland to 72°N. The SD
linear fit is evident in Fig. 2. Minimal devi-
only be used to assess the statistical signifi-
of the points about the line is 1.14 m, for an
ations appear at about 0, 6, and 12 months,
iterative 3 SD editing with SD convergent
and maximal deviations at about 3 and 9
cance of a linear trend if cyclical components
to 2%. In the calculation of SE of the slope,
months. To examine the effect of this semi-
in the data are small.
we assume that errors among the dHᵢ are
annual variation on the linear trend analysis,
The dH/dt method has several advantages.
All crossovers created by a series of altimeter
independent, even though some correlation
we averaged the dHᵢ in 30-day intervals
measurements can be used. The effect of
may be expected among the crossovers
[dHₘ = Σ(H₂ - H₁)ᵢ/n, where n is the num-
possible seasonal changes in either the sur-
along a given orbit. Depending upon the
ber of measurements in the interval]. The
face elevation or radar back-scattering prop-
magnitude of the residual orbit error com-
dHₘ for dt < 0 were then averaged with the
erties is reduced, because a specific dtᵢ, for
pared to the altimeter measurement error,
corresponding values for dt > 0 (Fig. 3).
example, might have summer-to-winter and
the number of crossovers per orbit, and the
Although there are obvious nonlinear com-
winter-to-summer measurements. Also, the
degree of correlation from one crossover to
ponents, the variations about the linear fit
value of the dH intercept at dt = 0 can
another, the true error on the slope for this
are not large and are nearly symmetrical.
case could be as much ± 0.02 m/year.
Linear fits to the mean values give
indicate measurement biases.
0.289 ± 0.032 m/year and 0.279 ± 0.020
m/year, before and after averaging the mean
values for dt <0 and dt > 0, which are
consistent with the slope in Fig. 2.
8
Elevation changes between Geosat and
Seasat measurements are more meaningful
for mass balance studies because of the 7-
4
Elevation difference (m)
Fig. 2. Elevation differences dHᵢ at
year interval between the two satellites;
256,694 Geosat-Geosat crossovers
however, comparisons may be influenced by
0
versus dtᵢ. Negative dtᵢ indicate that
differences in the orbit calculations, or their
the elevation measurement, H₂, on
an orbit ascending in latitude pre-
relative ocean-geoid levels. Coarse-grid in-
ceded the elevation measurement,
formation received from the Navy on their
-4
H₁, on an orbit descending in lati-
altimeter measurements of the ocean surface
tude. Intercept at dt = 0 shows an
in the vicinity of Greenland with Geosat is
ascending-descending orbit bias of
-8
sufficient, however, to estimate the possible
-0.48 m. The rate of increase in
600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
surface elevation is 0.28 ± 0.02 m/
bias with respect to the Seasat measure-
ments. The estimated Geosat-Seasat eleva-
Time difference (days)
year.
SCIENCE, VOL. 246
1588
tion bias over Greenland is 0.4 ± 0.4 m,
McConathy and C. C. Kilgus, ibid., p. 170) are
mm/year). In contrast, recent total flux esti-
which we treat as a correction with a system-
classified for geodetic purposes, but the data over ice
was released as unclassified data for ice studies (H.).
mates (8) of annual snow accumulation,
atic error. In other respects, the Geosat and
Zwally, J. A. Major, A. C. Brenner, R. A. Binds-
iceberg discharge, and peripheral melting of
Seasat altimeters are similar in design, and
chadler, ibid., P. 251). The geodetic mission has
the Antarctic ice sheet indicate that the net
the same range-correction retracking algo-
been followed by an unclassified exact-repeat mis-
sion (G. H. Born, J. L. Mitchell, G. A. Heyler, ibid.,
ice loss has been 750 km³/year, which is
rithm was used over ice. We accounted for
p. 260), but the orbit determinations currently
35% of the mass input and equivalent to 1.9
the ascending-descending orbit bias by ana-
available are much less precise.
mm/year of sea-level rise.
4. H. J. Zwally, Science 246, 1589 (1989).
lyzing the crossovers of ascending Geosat
5. T. V. Martin, H. J. Zwally, A. C. Brenner, R. A.
Satellite radar altimetry measurements
orbits with Seasat separately from those
Bindschadler, J. Geophys. Res. 88, 1608 (1983).
show that the surface elevation of the Green-
with descending Geosat orbits, and then
6. A. C. Brenner, R. A. Bindschadler, R. H. Thomas,
H. J. Zwally, ibid., p. 1617 (1983).
land ice sheet south of 72°N (Fig. 1) in-
averaging the two results. We avoided sea-
7. S. L. Smith III, G. B. West, C. W. Malyevac, Johns
creased from 1978 to 1986 (9). The mea-
sonal biases by comparing the Seasat data
Hopkins App. Phys. Lab. Dig. 8 (no. 2), 197 (1987).
sured elevation change varies with latitude
8. The distribution of most of the crossover elevation
for 15 July to 10 October 1978 with Geosat
differences is Gaussian; however, some differences
(Fig. 2), and the errors are larger at lower
data for the same period of 1985. The
greater than 3 SD of the Gaussian distribution are
latitudes and lower ice-sheet elevations
resulting Geosat-Seasat average elevation
believed to be caused by measurement of ranges to
different locations on the surface on successive or-
mainly because of the smaller number of
difference for 5906 crossovers is 1.785 ±
bits. In some cases along a single orbit, two ranges
crossovers (10). The largest elevation in-
0.014 m. After correction for the Geosat-
to different places on the surface, differing in eleva-
creases were over the southern dome around
Seasat orbit bias, it is 1.385 ± 0.414 m. The
tion by as much as 20 m, are indicated by simulta-
neous, double-peaked radar returns (5). To elimi-
63.5°N and in the central region near 72°N
average rate of change over the 7-year inter-
nate such cases, crossover elevation differences great-
during 1985 to 1986.
val at these crossover locations is thus
er than 3 SD of the primary Gaussian distribution
The spatially averaged elevation changes,
0.20 ± 0.06 m/year. The altimeter measure-
were discarded in the analysis of elevation changes.
9. H. J. Zwally, Ann. Glaciol. 8, 200 (1985).
obtained by analyzing the crossover differ-
ments (Table I) thus show that the southern
10. This work is supported by NASA's Ocean Processes
ences in ice-sheet elevation bands (Fig. 3)
Greenland ice sheet has been thickening
Program. We thank R. Thomas in particular for
and weighting those values by the fractional
since the mid-1970s.
support and discussions and his help in arranging to
obtain the Geosat data. T. Davis, C. Kilgus, J.
area in each band (0.12, 0.14, 0.20, 0.31,
MacArthur, S. Smith, and others in the U.S. Navy
and 0.23 for lower to higher elevations), are
and Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory
REFERENCES AND NOTES
provided the Geosat data and associated information
0.233 +1 0.041 m/year for 1978-1985 Geo-
1. H. J. Zwally, J. Glaciol. 15, 444 (1975).
that made this research possible. We also thank C.
sat-Seasat measurements and 0.239 ± 0.030
2. R. L. Brooks, W. J. Campbell, R. O. Ramseier, H.
Lingle, S. Stephenson, T. Seiss, S. Fiegles, and
m/year for 1985-1986 Geosat-Geosat mea-
R. Stanley, H. J. Zwally, Nature 274, 539 (1978).
others for assistance with computer programming
and data processing.
surements. In southern Greenland, the equi-
3. J. L. MacArthur, P. C. Marth, Jr., J. G. Wall, Johns
Hopkins Appl. Phys. Lab. Dig. 8 (no. 2), 176 (1987).
librium line (boundary between net ablation
The first 18 months of the Geosat mission (D. R.
29 June 1989; accepted 13 October 1989
and net accumulation) is at 1200 to 1500
60°
40°
20°
Growth of Greenland Ice Sheet: Interpretation
80°
H. JAY ZWALLY
An observed 0.23 m/year thickening of the Greenland ice sheet indicates a 25% to 45%
excess ice accumulation over the amount required to balance the outward ice flow. The
implied global sea-level depletion is 0.2 to 0.4 mm/year, depending on whether the
75°
thickening is only recent (5 to 10 years) or longer term (<100 years). If there is a
similar imbalance in the northern 60% of the ice-sheet area, the depletion is 0.35 to 0.7
mm/year. Increasing ice thickness suggests that the precipitation is higher than the
long-term average; higher precipitation may be a characteristic of warmer climates in
700
1200
1700
2200
2700
3200
polar regions.
70°
EGIG
HE MASS BALANCE OF THE GREEN-
T
such a manner, however, that enhanced
land and Antarctic ice sheets is of
precipitation may offset increases in surface
current interest, largely because of its
melting (5).
direct
relation to global sea level, which
Each year, approximately 3000 km³ of
appears to be rising by 2.4 + 0.9 mm/year
water is exchanged between the ocean and
65°
(1). Although both thermal expansion of the
the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica, a
OSU
D3
ocean (2) and melting of small glaciers (3)
volume equivalent to 8 mm of water from
contribute to sea-level rise, the major source
the entire surface of the world's oceans. The
of water is undetermined. Also, the possibil-
uncertainty in ice-sheet mass balance has
ity of enhanced ice-sheet melting in a warm-
been at least ±30% of the annual mass
er climate (4) is of concern. Glaciers respond
exchange (6); this uncertainty is equivalent
60°
to both precipitation and temperature in
to ±2.4 mm/year of sea-level change. Re-
cently, Meier et al. (7) estimated that there
has been a small positive balance for both
Fig. 1. Map of Greenland showing surface eleva-
Oceans and Ice Branch, Code 671, National Aeronautics
tions in region covered by satellite radar altimetry
and Space Administration, Goddard Space Flight Cen-
Greenland (-0.1 ± 0.4 mm/year of sea-lev-
and locations of surface measurements (EGIG,
ter, Greenbelt, MD 20771.
el change) and Antarctica (-0.6 ± 0.6
D3, and OSU) of elevation change.
22 DECEMBER 1989
REPORTS 1589
0.6
In general, changes in ice-sheet elevation
glacial isostatic adjustment is between 0 and
Geosat-Geosat (1986 to 1985)
may be caused by variations in surface bal-
0.009 m/year (22). Therefore, the average
Geosat (1985)-
ance (accumulation minus ablation), firn
change in ice-sheet thickness, dH'/dt, is
0.4
Seasat (1978)
0.23 ± 0.04 m/year. Changes in the ice
Elevation change (m/year)
compression, ice flow, or crustal deforma-
tion
velocity and the average Vcp over 8 years are
0.2
likely to be small. The ice-sheet area south of
dH/dt = [A(t) - B(t)]/Rₛ -
72°N is 0.70 X 10⁶ km² (1/517 of global
Seasat-Geos-3
+
- Vᵢ + Vb = dH'/dt + Vb
(1)
EGIG (1968 to 1959)
ocean area), and the measured change in
(1978 to 1975)
0.0
and the (net) mass balance is
volume is therefore 160 km³/year. A lower
end estimate of mass change is obtained for
dM/dt = A(t) B(t) - VᵢRᵢ
(2)
-0.2
the situation where the elevation change is a
60°
62°
64°
66°
68°
70°
72°N
where H is surface elevation; dM/dt, A, and
short-term (5- to 10-year) increase in pre-
Fig. 2. Average changes in ice-sheet surface eleva-
B are the mass-change rate, the surface-
cipitation, in which case the average density
tion in latitude bands. The 1985-1978 Geosat-
accumulation rate, and the surface-ablation
of the snow being added is about 0.5 Rᵢ. An
Seasat values are from the difference between
rate in meters of water equivalent per year;
upper-end estimate is obtained for a change
elevations in late summer 1985 and late summer
1978. The 1986-1985 Geosat-Geosat values are
Rₛ is the (relative) density of snow being
from either a long-term (>100 years) increase
from the dH/dt method of analysis. The respective
added; Rᵢ is the density of solid ice (0.92);
in precipitation or a decrease in ice flow, for
1985-1978 and 1986-1985 average values for all
Vcₚ is the velocity of firn compression; Vᵢ is
which the appropriate density is 0.92 Rᵢ. The
crossovers are 0.20 m/year and 0.28 m/year (9).
the downward subsurface velocity of the
calculated global sea-level depletion thus
Earlier values are from EGIG traverse near
70.5°N (Fig. 1) and GEOS-3-Seasat analysis.
firn-ice transition (16); H' is ice-sheet thick-
ranges from 0.20 to 0.41 mm/year.
ness; and Vb is the vertical velocity of the ice
The average accumulation rate on the ice
base due to crustal deformation. If the sur-
sheet south of 72°N is about 0.5 m/year
0.6
face integral of dM/dt = 0, over either a local
water equivalent (23). Therefore, the 0.23
area or the entire area of an ice sheet, the
m/year thickness change represents a mass
0.4
Geosat-Geosat
area is in balance.
imbalance ranging from about 25 to 45%,
Elevation change (m/year)
(1986 to 1985)
Whereas changes in precipitation and sur-
depending on whether the change is short or
face ablation have immediate effects on sur-
long term. About 60% of the area of the
0.2
face elevation, changes in ice flow in re-
Greenland ice sheet lies north of the radar
Geosat (1985)-Seasat (1978)
sponse to changes in ice-sheet boundary
altimeter coverage, and the average accumu-
0.0
conditions have much slower effects (17).
lation rate there is roughly half of the south-
Therefore, elevation changes measured over
ern value. If the northern region has a
a decade could indicate either a recent
similar positive mass balance, even though
-0.2
700
to
1200
to
1700
to
2200
to
2700
to
change in accumulation or long-term
the meteorological and glaciological situa-
1200
1700
2200
2700
3300
changes in ice velocity or accumulation.
tion may be quite different, the northern
Elevation interval (m)
Reeh and Gundestrup (14) suggested that
thickening rate would be half of the south-
Fig. 3. Average ice-sheet surface elevation
the 0.03 ± 0.06 m/year thickening at Dye 3
ern value. In this case, the total sea-level
changes by elevation bands. Thickening is indicat-
may be caused by a slowing of the ice flow
depletion would be 0.35 to 0.7 mm/year.
ed for both time periods in both the accumulation
and ablation zones (above and below ~1200 to
because of the downward propagation of
A 2.4 mm/year sea-level rise (1) with
1500 m). Spatially averaged elevation change is
stiffer post-Wisconsin ice. In regard to pre-
contributions of 0.4 mm/year from small
0.23 + 0.04 m/year.
cipitation changes, accumulation time series
glaciers (3), 0.4 mm/year from ocean ther-
have been obtained at only a few locations.
mal expansion (2), and a -0.5 mm/year
m. Therefore, thickening is indicated for
Ice cores from the central region of the ice
from Greenland, implies that the contribu-
both time periods in both the accumulation
sheet near 71°N show that accumulation
tion to sea-level rise from Antarctica is 2.1
and ablation zones, although the errors are
rates increased about 3.3% per 100 years
mm/year. The agreement of this value, how-
large for the ablation zone.
over the last 300 years (18), and a similar
ever, with the 1.9 mm/year estimate for
Repeat long-line leveling on traverses in
change has been observed at Dye 3 (19).
Antarctica based on net mass fluxes, may be
1959 and 1968 (EGIG, Fig. 1) (11) showed
However, accumulation rates in the central
fortuitous, in consideration of the large un-
that the ice sheet was thickening by 0.09
region decreased about 10% from peak val-
certainty in the flux estimates.
m/year at least locally (12). Within the abla-
ues between 1940 and 1985 (18), and the
The relation between precipitation
tion zone near the western margin, the ice
rates near Dye 3 decreased about 40% from
changes and temperature changes in polar
sheet thinned at ~0.30 m/year between
1935 to 1970 (20), while precipitation at
regions is of central importance to under-
1948 and 1959 (13) and 0.24 m/year be-
land stations in northern mid-latitudes ap-
standing current and future behavior of the
tween 1959 and 1968 (12). Reeh and Gun-
peared to increase (21). Therefore, the spe-
ice sheets. In polar regions, enhanced pre-
destrup (14) concluded that the ice sheet
cific cause of ice-sheet thickening cannot be
cipitation is associated with warmer tem-
was thickening at Dye 3 (D3, Fig. 1) by
deduced, but it is likely that the present ice
peratures because of the greater transport of
0.03 ± 0.06 m/year. Kostecka and Whillans
velocities have been determined by the long-
moisture in warmer air (24, 25). Various
(15)
derived a thickening rate of
term (>100 years) surface conditions and
results (26) suggest that the increase in
0.06 +1 0.08 m/year along a transect (OSU,
that the observed ice thickening indicates
precipitation is 5 to 20% per Kelvin. The
Fig. 1) west of Dye 3. These results consis-
that present accumulation rates are larger
effects of enhanced precipitation and warm-
tently indicate that the accumulation zone
than the long-term average.
er temperatures on ice-sheet mass balance
was thickening, but the magnitudes are
The rate of mass change and implied sea-
differ in the ablation and accumulation
smaller than the spatially averaged altimeter
level depletion can be estimated from the
zones. Above the equilibrium line, most
results. In the ablation zone, the results are
spatially averaged dH/dt values. In southern
surface melt water is refrozen and retained
of opposite sign.
Greenland, the value of Vb due to post-
locally. Therefore, increased precipitation
SCIENCE, VOL. 246
I590
increases the mass input, and melting has
Geophysical Union, Washington, DC, 1985), pp.
22. Glacio-isostatic uplift ended 4000 to 5000 years ago
little effect. Below the equilibrium line, in-
59-85.
(A. Weidick, in Geology of Greenland, A. Escher and
creases in precipitation reduce the net sum-
9. H. J. Zwally, A. C. Brenner, J. A. Major, R. A.
W. S. Watt, Eds. (The Geological Survey of Green-
Bindschadler, J. G. Marsh, Science 246, 1587
land, Denmark, 1976), p. 450. Figure 3 in (1)
mer ablation and partially offset increases in
(1989).
shows that the rise is 3 mm/year near the coast and 9
melting. Although the altitude of the equi-
10. Errors are 1 SD of dH/dt slope for Geosat-Geosat
mm/year in the central area.
measurements, and SD of the mean crossover differ-
librium line increases with increased tem-
23. Accumulation data are summarized in U. Radok et
ence plus error in relative geoid correction for
al., Climatic and Physical Characteristics of the Greenland
perature, it decreases with increased precipi-
Geosat-Seasat measurements. The density of orbital
Ice Sheet: Parts I and II (Univ. of Colorado, Boulder,
tation and with increased cloudiness (27).
crossovers is largest at the maximum latitude of
1982).
72°N and decreases significantly to the south, be-
24. G. de Q. Robin, Philos. Trans. R. Soc. London Ser. B
Therefore, changes in position of the equi-
cause of the geometry of the ground tracks. Seasat
280, 143 (1977).
librium line might be small as temperature
data coverage is shown in H. J. Zwally, R. A.
25. D. H. Bromwich, Rev. Geophys. 26, 149 (1988).
and precipitation increase together. Because
Bindschadler, A. C. Brenner, T. V. Martin, and R.
26. Antarctic data in (24) suggest 6% per Kelvin at the
H. Thomas [J. Geophys. Res. 88, 1589 (1983)] and
surface and 11% per Kelvin above the surface inver-
nearly 100% of the Antarctic ice sheet and
typical Geosat coverage in H. J. Zwally, A. C.
sion layer for the equation of M. Mellor [Polarfors-
85% of the Greenland ice sheet are above
Brenner, J. A. Major, and R. A. Bindschadler [Johns
chung 5, 179 (1963)]. Temperature and accumula-
the present equilibrium line, the dominant
Hopkins Appl. Phys. Lab. Dig. 8, 251 (1987)]. The
tion records since 1965 at an Antarctic coastal
density of elevation differences is also smaller at
station give 18% per Kelvin [D. W. S. Limbert, in
short-term effect is likely to be ice-sheet
lower elevations, because the altimeter measure-
Environment of West Antarctica: Potential CO₂-Induced
growth. An increase in precipitation and
ments are less continuous over the steeper and more
Changes, M. F. Meier and C. R. Bentley, Eds.
irregular surface near the ice-sheet margins and the
temperature should cause an immediate pos-
(National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC,
altimeter measurement errors are also larger. The SD
1984), pp. 116-139]. The positive linear relation
itive change in the mass balance and a
(with 3 SD editing) for Geosat-Geosat crossovers
between Greenland accumulation and δ¹⁸O values
gradual steepening of an ice sheet, which
increases from 1.06 m at 72°N to 2.93 m between
(18) and, therefore, temperature give 5% per Kelvin;
60°N and 63°N. Similarly, SD is 1.06 m in the
modeling experiments [M. E. Schlesinger and J. F.
would continue for many years as the ice
elevation band between 2700 and 3300 m and 4.79
B. Mitchell, Rev. Geophys. 25, 760 (1987)] show
flow responded to the driving stresses.
m in the band between 700 and 1200 m.
precipitation increases of about 0.2 m/year in polar
In conclusion, Greenland ice-sheet
11. By the Expedition Glaciologique Internationale au
regions for greenhouse warming associated with a
Groenland (EGIG).
doubling of CO₂ concentration, which is a change of
growth is consistent with the generally
12. H. Seckel, Medd. Groenl. 187, no. 4 (1977).
about 5 to 20% per Kelvin at the latitudes of
warmer temperatures (28) experienced in
13. A. Bauer, A. Ambach, O. Schimpp, ibid., 174, no. 1
Greenland.
(1968).
this century. If climate continues to warm,
27. W. Ambach and M. Kuhn, pp. 255-257 in (7),
14. N. Rech and N. S. Gundestrup, J. Glaciol. 31, 108,
show equilibrium rise of 77 m per Kelvin increase in
enhanced precipitation in polar regions may
198 (1985).
surface air temperature, a fall of 73 m per 0.1-m
offset increases in melting. Although the
15. J. M. Kostecka and I. M. Whillans, ibid. 34, 31
increase in snowfall, and a fall of 4 m per 10%
(1988).
increase in cloudiness.
Antarctic ice sheet is a likely source of water
16. In a continuity equation, Vᵢ equals the downward
28. J. Hansen and S. Lebedeff, Geophys. Res. Lett. 15,
for current sea-level rise, its mass balance is
ice velocity plus the vertical ice motion due to
323 (1988).
horizontal advection.
uncertain. Over much of Antarctica, which
29. J. L. Bufton, J. E. Robinson, M. D. Femiano, F.S.
17. Also, changes in Vcₚ are a secondary effect primarily
Flatow, IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sensing GE-20,
contains 91% of the earth's ice, the annual
determined by changes in A(t) and B(t), and changes
544 (1982).
mass input is only 10% of the Greenland
in Vb are negligible.
30. This work is supported by NASA's Ocean Processes
18. H. B. Clausen, N. S. Gundestrup, S. J. Johnsen, R.
values, SO that significant elevation changes
Program. I thank S. Jacobs for his compilation of
Bindschadler, J. Zwally, Ann. Glaciol. 10, 10
estimates of Antarctic mass fluxes and D. Bromwich
may be ten times as small. Laser altimetry
(1988).
for pointing me to literature on polar precipitation. I
measurements (29) are needed there, be-
19. N. Rech et al., J. Glaciol. 20, 27 (1978).
appreciate the useful discussions with R. Alley, R.
20. N. Reeh, H. B. Clausen, N. Gundestrup, S. J.
cause of its better range precision and ability
Bindschadler, C. Lingle, S. Stephenson, and R.
Johnsen, B. Staufer, Int. Assoc. Hydrol. Sci. Publ. No.
Thomas.
to cover the critical ablation zones where
118, 177 (1977).
radar altimeters do not adequately follow
21. R. S. Bradley et al., Science 237, 171 (1987).
29 June 1989, accepted 13 October 1989
the more irregular ice surfaces.
REFERENCES AND NOTES
Thermomolecular Pressure in Surface Melting:
1. W. R. Peltier and A. M. Tushingham, Science 244,
Motivation for Frost Heave
806 (1989).
2. R. Etkins and E. Epstein, ibid. 215, 287 (1982); V.
Gornitz, S. Lebedeff, J. Hansen, ibid., P. 1611.
J. G. DASH
3. M. F. Meier, ibid. 226, 1420 (1984).
4. J. Hansen et al., J. Geophys. Res. 93, 9341 (1988).
5. For example, a detailed study of an Alaskan glacier at
60.4°N shows that there has been significant growth
A thermomolecular pressure is associated with surface melting, and it can drive mass
since 1976 as both temperature and precipitation
flow along an interface under a lateral temperature gradient. The pressure is a universal
increased (L. R. Mayo and D. C. Trabant, in The
thermodynamic function in the limit of thick films. It may be responsible for frost
Potential Effects of Carbon Dioxide-Induced Changes in
Alaska, J. H. McBeath, Ed. (Misc. Publ. 83-1, Univ.
heave in frozen ground.
of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK, 1984).
6. R. H. Thomas et al., NASA Tech. Memo. 86233
(1985).
S
URFACE MELTING CONTINUES TO AT-
classes of solid materials. The motivating
7. M. F. Meier et al., Glaciers, Ice Sheets, and Sea Level:
tract considerable experimental and
force for the effect is the lowering of the
Effect of a CO₂-Induced Climatic Change (National
theoretical interest, as it involves fun-
interfacial free energy of a solid surface by a
Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC, 1985).
damental questions in surface science and
8. Estimates of Antarctic accumulation, iceberg dis-
layer of the melted material, which occurs
charge, and basal melting made since 1955 showed a
condensed matter physics and practical ap-
for all solid interfaces that are wetted by the
positive mass balance before about 1974, but im-
plications in materials processing (1-5). Al-
melt liquid. Such a reduction of the free
proved recent values show that an increase in the
estimate of accumulation [M. B. Giovinetto and C.
though the phenomenon has been explored
energy allows a macroscopically thick film of
R. Bentley, Antarctic J. U.S. 20, 6 (1985)] is more
in a limited number of materials, it is be-
the liquid to be stabilized at a temperature
than offset by larger increases in the estimates of
lieved to be a general characteristic of most
iceberg discharge [O. Orheim, p. 210 in (7)] and
below the normal melting point. The surface
basal melting [S. S. Jacobs, R. G. Fairbanks, Y.
free energy of the film varies with its thick-
Horibe, in Oceanology of the Antarctic Continental
Shelf, S. Jacobs, Ed. (Antarct. Res. Ser. 43, American
Department of Physics, FM-15, University of Washing-
ness and asymptotically approaches the val-
ton, Seattle, WA 98195.
ue for semi-infinite liquid. This variation
22 DECEMBER 1989
REPORTS 1591
NATURE VOL. 322 31 JULY
430
ARTICLES
NATURE
VOL.
1986
Global temperature variations between
1861 and 1984
P. D. Jones, T. M. L. Wigley & P. B. Wright*
Fig.
M
Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
marine air
peratures
Recent homogenized near-surface temperature data over the land and oceans of both hemispheres during the past 13
years are combined to produce the first comprehensive estimates of global mean temperature. The results show little tren
in the nineteenth century, marked warming to 1940, relatively steady conditions to the mid-1970s and a subsequent rap
warming. The warmest 3 years have all occurred in the 1980s.
GLOBAL mean surface air temperature is the most commonly
for 1980-84. We use both sea surface temperatures (SST)
used measure of the state of the climate system. When general
marine air temperatures (MAT).
issues of climatic change are addressed, global mean tem-
perature change is often used as a yardstick; the age of the
Marine data problems
dinosaurs was warmer than today, the ice ages were colder, and
Both SST and MAT data contain 'inhomogeneities', variatio this by com
so on. Paradoxically, in the present era of instrumental
resulting from non-climatic factors' 4.10,15 For example, abut or ove
meteorology, with data coverage far better than at any earlier
SSTs were measured using water collected in uninsulated, cam
The trin
time, our knowledge of global mean temperature changes is still
buckets, while more recent data come either from insulat
medians or
uncertain. Variations in global mean air temperature are of
bucket or cooling water intake measurements, with the latt
tions in II
considerable importance, as they are a measure of the sensitivity
considered to be 0.3-0.7 °C warmer than uninsulated bud the data on
of the climate system to external forcing factors such as changes
measurements¹⁰. For marine air temperatures, changes in
for SST) a
in carbon dioxide concentration, solar output and the frequency
size and speed of ships, especially those increases associat
distribution
of explosive volcanic eruptions. Quantifying the response of the
with the sail to steam transition, are both thought to ha
resentative
climate to external forcing changes is a major goal of climatology
influenced data homogeneity. In addition, many early air to
inomalies
and a prerequisite for predicting future climatic change. As a
perature observations were not taken in screened location
quality at 1
step towards this goal, we present here the first global synthesis
Because of these non-climatic factors, both SST and MAT
appropriat
of near-surface temperature measurements over the land and
must be corrected (or 'homogenized') to remove their effects
Northern }
oceans.
Folland et al.4.16 and Folland and Kates¹⁷, using the
variations
Most earlier estimates of global and hemispheric mean tem-
Meteorological Office (UKMO) data bank³, attempted to OW
lent agreer
perature (see refs 1, 2) were based solely on data from land-based
come these problems by identifying specific sources of em
0.86; NHM
meteorological stations. Since 70% of the globe is ocean, one
attempting to quantify these and using this information to mai
1856-1979
might suspect the global representativeness of such estimates,
corrections to the raw gridded data. Such corrections has
from a 10
although on long timescales (>decades) the thermal coupling
inherent uncertainties because of difficulties in their a prio
10yr). fl
between land and ocean should ensure that the land data largely
quantification and a lack of knowledge of how most measun
frequency
mirror changes occurring over the oceans¹. Recently, data from
ments were taken. Information on whether bucket or intal
ted COAL
ships at sea collected for routine weather forecasting purposes,
measurements were made has, in most cases, apparently be
in the con
have been compiled by groups in the United Kingdom³ and
lost or never recorded. It has also been shown that supposed
Because
the United States⁵,⁶, and these data give us the potential to
homogeneous (that is bucket-only or intake-only) SST dat
SST data '
calculate improved estimates of global mean temperature. Apart
series appear to have non-climatic changes that are similar
the latter 1
from our own work⁷, the only previous attempt to analyse both
those found in mixed data series, suggesting that all historic
to assess,
land and marine data is that of Paltridge and Woodruff⁸.⁹. These
data sets contain a mix of measurement types. Since
mental ch:
authors, however, failed to account for inhomogeneities in the
however, it is generally assumed that available SST data conta
of change
marine data, which are substantial (see below and also refs 4
a reasonably consistent mix of intake and bucket measun
determine.
and 10). The quality and coverage of the land data they used
ments¹⁸.
be fraugh
was also less than adequate, but this is understandable because
The Folland et al.⁴ corrected MAT and SST series have bee
homogene
they were primarily interested in sea-surface temperature vari-
compared with averages of land-based data by Jones et
the gridde
ations.
Agreement is reasonable since the start of the twentieth centure station di
The land data we use are those from refs 11, 12. These have
although MAT values for the years 1942-45 appear to be explained
been carefully examined to detect and correct for non-climatic
warm in both hemispheres. Before 1900, the marine and la
to correct
errors that may result from station shifts or instrument changes,
series diverge markedly, with both marine series being abo
chosen in
changes in the methods used for calculating means, urban warm-
0.3 °C warmer than the land data.
Area aver
ing, and so on. Although problems still exist¹³,¹⁴, the quality of
Correcting the COADS data
were calci
these data is much better than that of material used in earlier
data and
studies. Area averages based on these data show medium to
The COADS compilation contains some 63.25 million
No
long timescale trends (>10 yr) whose spatial consistency pro-
duplicated SST observations, of which 0.96 million have bee
only as w
vides a strong pointer to the data's overall reliability¹,¹¹,¹ The
'trimmed' to remove extreme outliers⁵. While these are mos
avera
marine data we employ are those in the COADS (Comprehen-
data than in the UKMO SST set (which has about 46 millio
duced for
sive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set) compilation⁶ which extends
non-duplicated observations⁴), the effective area and density
hemisphe:
to 1979, and data from the Climate Analysis Center, NOAA,
coverage is very similar in both data sets. However, unliked
The 17,
UKMO data set used by Folland et al.⁴, none of the data
systematic
* Present address: Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Bundesstrasse
COADS have been corrected for non-climatic effects. Our
period
55, 2000 Hamburg 13, FRG.
task, therefore, was to homogenize the COADS data. Wed
data.
431
TURE VOL. 322 31 JULY 1986
ARTICLES
m 1 Map showing the 15 regions where
D
marine air temperatures and land-based tem-
seratures were compared (Peters equal-area rec-
tangular projection).
st 13
tren
1 rapi
T)
iation by comparing marine and land data in areas where the two
coverage), five distinct periods could be discerned in all 15
but or overlap (coastal areas and around ocean islands).
regional land minus MAT time series and in the two hemispheric
canva The trimmed COADS data include monthly means and
land minus MAT time series. The latter are shown in Fig. 2.
sulate redians on a 2° x2° grid, together with the number of observa-
The three main periods are: the period up to the 1880s when
:
latte in a month and the mean observation date. We compressed
the MAT data appear to be too warm by 0.4-0.5 °C; °C; the period
buck data onto a more manageable grid (5° 5° for MAT, 4° 10°
from the 1900s to 1941 when the MAT data are too cold by
in the for SST) after eliminating values where the number and
0.1-0.2 °C; and 1946-79 when there is no obvious bias. There
ciato distribution of observations was likely to have produced unrep-
is a strong upward trend in the land-minus-MAT difference
),
hav resentative monthly means, and expressed the values as
between the mid 1880s and the late 1900s, and the war years,
ir
ten
nomalies from a 1950-79 reference period. As a test of data
1942-45, are marked by anomalously warm MAT values. The
ations
ality at this stage we calculated hemispheric mean values by
consistency between the hemispheres is clear from Fig. 2, and
T
data appropriately weighting the gridded MAT and SST data (NH,
the land minus MAT data for the individual smaller regions,
fecta
Northern Hemisphere; SH, Southern Hemisphere). Year-to-year
although showing greater inter-annual variability, all show the
U
nations for these uncorrected data were found to be in excel-
same features.
over
at agreement with the UKMO corrected data (NHSST, r =
The nineteenth century land minus MAT data also show
error 86. NHMAT, r = 0.87; SHSST, = 0.88; SHMAT, r = 0.75 over
differences between the values before and after about 1873 (see
maki 456-1979: correlation coefficients calculated using residuals
Fig. 2). By examining land, MAT and SST data it can be shown
Ha
rom a 10-yr gaussian filter), but, as expected, the long-term
that this difference is also likely to reflect a non-climatic
prior >10 fluctuations showed marked differences. Similar high
asure requency correlations between SST and MAT for the uncorrec-
intak COADS data (NH, r = 0.91; SH, = 0.89) were higher than
Abc the corrected UKMO data (NH, = 0.81; SH, r = 0.80).
0.5
osedly Because of the high SST-MAT correlation (see also ref. 19),
data can be corrected by comparison with MAT data, once
ilar
the latter have been corrected. For the MAT data, any attempt
a
0
orica to assess, a priori, the magnitudes of errors arising from instru-
1945 mental changes, changes in observation methods, and the effects
ontain
of changes in ships' thermal inertia, speed and size (the latter
-0.5
asúre
determines the height at which observations were taken), must
M fraught with uncertainty. Data reliability and long-term
been domogeneity can be far more convincingly demonstrated for
L
11,12
the gridded land data than for the marine data because land
ntury station data homogeneities can be more easily identified,
too explained and corrected We therefore use these data directly
to correct the marine data. Fifteen regions (see Fig. 1) were
Temperature difference (°C)
0.5
land
about chosen in which land and marine data are in close proximity.
b
Area averages of annual mean MAT and land air temperature
0
were calculated for each region using the uncorrected COADS
data and the homogenized land data produced by Jones et
non-
6111.12 No attempt was made to consider night-time observations
-0.6
been
only, as used by Folland et al.⁴. In addition to the 15 pairs of
more area averages, annual mean coastal land time series were pro-
illion duced for both hemispheres and compared with the uncorrected
1850
1900
1950
1990
ity
OF bemispheric-mean MAT series.
Year
e
the
The 17 land minus MAT time series were then examined for
Fig. 2 Temperature differences: coastal land values minus uncor-
ta
systematic differences between the land and marine data. For
rected COADS marine air temperature values for the Northern
first the period 1861-1979 (both marine and Southern Hemisphere
(n) and Southern (b) Hemispheres. Smooth curves show 10-yr
,
did land data are unropresentative before 1801 because of poor data
Oltered values, padded HI such and HQ described In ref. 11.
432
ATURE
ARTICLES
NATURE VOL. 322 31 JULY
1889 and 1903. Slightly different corrections were judge
necessary for Southern Hemisphere data between 1941 and 194
0.5
1941, -0.14; 1942-45, -0.44. Most of the transition dates for
these correction factors, which are based on a number of CO
siderations, could be altered slightly with no appreciable effect
a
0
on the resulting corrected MAT values. Although the 0.08
difference in the MAT corrections before and after 1873 ma
be inappropriate if it arises from a land data inhomogenein
Temperature difference (°C)
-0.5
we judge this to be unlikely. It has the effect of slightly reducis
the magnitude of the long-term MAT warming between F
period before 1873 and today. The corrections generally reflex
the mean land minus MAT values shown in Table 1, but
precise values used and the transition dates also take MAT-SS
0.5
comparisons into account. Our corrections differ markedly froa
Temperature difference (C)
those applied by Folland et al.⁴ to their night-time MAT data
This is a clear indication of incompatibilities between the correct
0
ted UKMO MAT data and the homogenized land data (see ale
refs 11 and 12).
Having corrected the MAT data, we can now estimate
-0.5
SST corrections required to ensure overall compatibility betwee
the land, MAT and SST data by comparing the corrected MA
and raw SST values. Table 2 and Fig. 3 show the hemisphen
mean differences between the corrected MAT data and the
1850
1900
1950
1990
Year
SST data. As with the MAT analysis, three distinct periods
Fig. 3 Temperature differences: corrected marine air temperatures
minus uncorrected sea surface temperatures for the Northern (a)
Fig.
and Southern (b) Hemispheres. Smooth curves show 10-yr gaussian
Table 2 Comparison between corrected MAT data and uncorrecte
temps
SST data
filtered values.
Folla
(b).
1861-89
1903-41
1942-45
1946-19
warm
NH
X
0.08
0.2
inhomogeneity in either the MAT data or the land data, probably
0.49
-0.07
0.02
S
0.08
0.08
Cond
the former.
0.07
0.09
SH
X
0.07
0.50
condi
-0.14
The means and standard deviations of the land minus MAT
0.02
S
0.04
0.05
0.08
0.08
values are shown in Table 1. The consistency of these values
Correction
0.08
0.49
-0.10
0.00
strongly suggests that these land/MAT discrepancies are not
22
climatic in origin. They may, therefore, be used to estimate
X = mean MAT minus SST value; s = corresponding standard des the
risir
annual correction factors for the MAT data in order to make
ation. The correction is the number added to the uncorrected anny
SST data.
hemisp!
these data compatible with the existing homogenized land data.
to expc
Except for the 1942-45 period, when war conditions apparently
changes
prompted observers to measure temperature in unconventional
be discerned: pre-1890 when the SST data are slightly
the sam
locations⁴, the specific reasons for these non-climatic MAT
fluctuations are not known. Although their reality cannot be
consistently cooler than the MAT data; 1903-41 when SSTs
be
the
markedly cooler than MATs; and post-1945 when there is
introdu
questioned, there is clearly some uncertainty in the magnitude
consistent difference. Rather complex transitions exist betwee
that, in
of the implied corrections.
The correction values we have used (added to the raw MAT
these three phases. The MAT-SST difference curves are esses peratur
tially the same in both hemispheres. This is a strong indication the
car
data) are (°C): 1861-73, -0.40; 1874-89, -0.48; 1903-41, 0.17;
that the differences reflect non-climatic effects, and it provide
rather
1942-45, -0.54; 1946-79, 0.0; with linear interpolation between
a valuable consistency check on the MAT corrections.
subject
The implied SST corrections, are (°C): 1861-89, 0.08; 1903-4
reading
0.49; 1942-45, -0.10; 1946-79, 0.0; with linear interpolation
The
between 1889 and 1903. For 1941 we applied a slightly differen values
Table 1 Comparison between coastal land and MAT data
correction in the Southern Hemisphere, 0.19 °C. As for MAI
Fig.
4.
these corrections also differ somewhat from those used by discrep:
1861-73
1874-89
1903-41
1942-45
1946-79
land et al.⁴. In their analysis, SST values were adjusted to ensur set of a
NH
X
-0.35
0.23
-0.02
compatibility with corrected MAT values, just as we have done
from th
-0.50
-0.49
s
0.26
0.11
0.09
0.02
0.12
However, since their corrected MAT values must differ notice
tially sh
SH
X
-0.36
-0.53
0.10
-0.44
ably from those produced here, differences in the SST corres
inhomo
0.03
s
0.23
0.14
0.09
0.09
0.10
tions will, in part, reflect these MAT differences.
individu
NH (9 region
X
-0.36
-0.42
0.17
-0.54
-0.03
s(X)
In our analysis, the difference between the twentieth centurl
at
average
0.40
0.21
0.10
0.10
0.05
SH (6 region
X
SST correction factor before 1941 and after 1946 is 0.49 °C. The sources
-0.61
-0.52
0.17
-0.44
0.05
average
s(X)
0.57
0.36
difference is in the range (0.3-0.7 °C) generally accepted for correcti
0.22
0.15
0.08
Correction
-0.40
-0.48
0.17
difference between uninsulated bucket and - intake SS
Howeve
-0.54
0.00
measurements 18,20,21 The precise reasons for the differences
nd lan
X = mean land minus MAT value; s = corresponding standard devi-
we obtain between the nineteenth century and early twenties
are unc
ation defined by where x, is the value in year
century MAT and SST corrections are uncertain. For MAT,
our
j, and Y is the number of years; s(X) = standard deviation of the means
change is likely to be related to the transition from sail to steam
century
defined by where n is the number of
Between 1880 and 1910, the percentage of steamship tonnar
regions (6 or 9), X, is the mean for region i and X is the average value
as a fraction of total shipping tonnage rose from ~25 to 75%
Globa
of X1. The last line shows the inferred correction which was added to
(ref. 22). Noticeable increases in ship speed occurred over
a
the uncorrected annual MAT data.
period 1880-1900, and in ship size over the period 1890-191 vlobal
TURE VOL. 322 31 JULY 1986
433
ARTICLES
judge
and 194
°C
dates
0.5
0.5
er of con
able effe
he 0.08
0
0
1873 ma
nogenem
y reducis
0.5
-0.5
tween
illy reflex
1, but di
MAT-SS
edly from
Temperature difference
AT data
0.5
1 (see als
0
imate the
y between
Temperature difference (°C)
0.5
he correct
0
0.5
-0.5
:ted MAI
misphen
d the FT
criods Call
1850
1900
1950
1990
Year
Flg. 4 Differences between the hemispheric-mean sea surface
0.5
ncorrect
temperature values produced in the present work and those of
Folland et al.4; Northern Hemisphere (a), Southern Hemisphere
(b). Smooth curves show 10-yr gaussian filtered values. The implied
0
1946-7
warmth of the Folland et al. SH data relative to the NH (by
0.02
-0.2°C), is due to their use of 1951-60 as a reference period.
Conditions during this decade differed noticeably from the mean
0.09
-0.5
0.02
conditions during the reference period, 1950-79, used here (see
0.08
Fig. 5).
0.00
22). These dates should be compared with the duration of
1850
1900
1950
1990
Year
dard de
rising trends in land minus uncorrected-MAT data in both
ed annu
mispheres shown in Fig. 2. Changes in MAT may be related
Fig. 5 Global (c) and hemispheric (Northern, a; Southern, b)
exposure changes attendant on the above, and to other
annual mean temperature variations since 1861, based on sea-
anges in instrument exposure procedure which occurred over
surface temperature data to represent the marine domain and using
ghtly
3 same period. For SST, the main reasons for the change may
weights corresponding approximately to the maximum coverage
for the four domains (method two in the text). Smooth curves
SSTs
the standardization of the measuring technique and the
ere is
troduction of more reliable instruments²³. It is also possible
show 10-yr gaussian filtered values. 1980-84 values are based on
betwee
in the mid to late nineteenth century, many bucket tem-
SST data obtained from the Climate Analysis Center, U.S. National
eratures were not taken in the shade²⁴. In addition, some of
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (see ref. 29 for informa-
re esset
tion about this data source). These data were adjusted to be
ádicatio
earlier measurements may have been made with wooden
compatible with the values in earlier years by comparing values
provide
ther than canvas buckets. The latter, being uninsulated and
in both hemispheres over the overlap period, 1970-79. The CAC
bject to evaporative cooling, produce lower temperature
data correlate highly with the COADS data (r=0.984 for the
1903-
dirigs
Northern Hemisphere mean and = 0.991 for the Southern Hemi-
The overall differences between the hemispheric mean SST
sphere mean).
polatic
different
ues produced here and those of Folland et al.⁴ are shown in
or MA
The results for an MAT comparison are similar. The
ted) marine data and the most recent compilations of land
1 by Fo
crepancies are large and comparable in magnitude to either
of corrections. The reasons for these differences stem mainly
data¹¹,¹² There are three different ways in which global or
o ensu
hemispheric (land plus marine) averages can be calculated. The
ve dot
the different correction factors applied to what are essen-
By similar raw data. Because there are several sources of data
first method is to average only those grid point values (with
notic
appropriate cosine weighting) for which data exist. This is the
r corre
homogeneity, we have not attempted to correct for these
dividually. The result should be more complete than Folland
way hemispheric means have been produced for the land
data 11,12 The second and third methods assume that each of
centur
of who attempted to make specific corrections for identified
the four independent time series (NH and SH land and NH
°C T
irces of inhomogeneity based on physical arguments. Our
and SH marine, either SST or MAT) are, at all times, representa-
d for
irections synthesize the effects of several different factors.
tive either of their maximum coverage or of the total areas of
ke SSI
However, while they ensure compatibility between the marine
the four domains. The results obtained differ but little, and the
land data, the fact that the reasons for these corrections
aces
use of either SST or MAT to represent the marine domains
wentieu
uncertain must point towards some remaining uncertainty
produces only minor differences. We therefore show only results
IATA
our corrected marine data, especially in the nineteenth
using the second method based on SST data, obtained using
dury
o steat
tonnai
T global = 0.25NH land 0.25NH SST- + 0.2SH land
Global mean temperatures
to 75%
+0.3SH SST
over the
If I relatively simple matter to produce estimates of annual
90-191
lobal mean surface air temperature using the available (correc-
(Fig. 5) where, after 1957, SH land includes Antarctic data from
434
TONATURE
NATURE VOL. 322 31 JULY
NATURE
Raper et al.²⁵, updated. The insensitivity to the precise method
Fig. 4. We note, however, that the latter do not affect the gros
of weighting arises because all time series are quite strongly
features of the global mean changes observed this century.
correlated.
The global curve is extremely interesting when viewed in the
The reliability of the time series given in Fig. 5 as true
light of recent ideas of the causes of climatic change¹,² T
hemispheric and global averages can be questioned because the
data show a long timescale warming trend, with the three was
spatial coverage, even at best, is less than 75% and because the
mest years being 1980, 1981 and 1983, and five of nine warme
coverage changes with time. Coverage is always much better in
years in the entire 134-yr record occurring after 1978. With
the Northern Hemisphere. Coverage before 1900 is generally
regard to the hypothesized warming due to increasing concentr
less than one third of the globe, down to <20% in the 1860s.
tions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, the over
The question of representativeness of the land data has been
change is in the right direction and of the correct magnitudel
considered in detail in refs 1, 11 and 12. Although marine
However, the relatively steady conditions maintained betwee
coverage before 1900 is sparse, the spatial correlation length
the late 1930s and mid 1970s requires either the existence
over the oceans is large and limited coverage should still give
some compensating forcing factor or, possibly, a lower sensiti
results representative of a much larger area. Nevertheless, there
ity to greenhouse gas changes than is generally accepted.
are large parts of the Southern Hemisphere that nearly always
We thank particularly C. K. Folland, D. E. Parker, P.
lack data, especially the southern oceans south of 45 °S and the
Kelly, T. P. Barnett and D. J. Shea for useful comments.
whole of the southeastern Pacific (except near the South
thank D. E. Parker and C. K. Folland (UK Meteorologic
American coast). Before 1957, when most Antarctic data first
Office) for access to unpublished data used in Fig. 4 Scot
Univ
became available, there are essentially no data at all for the
Woodruff (Environmental Research Laboratories, US National
fit
to
globe south of 45 °S (refs 25, 26). Although this represents only
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) for an early copy
the
15% of the area of the globe, temperature fluctuations at high
the trimmed COADS data set, and the Climate Analysis Centa
dev
latitudes are known to be larger than at lower latitudes and so
US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, for the
can have a disproportionate effect on the global average
recent marine data used in Fig. 5. This work was funded by
Any interpretation of Fig. 5 must bear in mind both these basic
becaus
Carbon Dioxide Research Division, US Department of Energy
data deficiencies and the marine data uncertainties implied by
numbe
grant no. DE-FGO2-86-ER60397.
For
a
incider
Received 10 February; accepted 28 May 1986.
14. Bradley, R. S. & Jones, P. D. in Detecting the Climatic Effects of Increasing Carbon Dioxal
orbital
1. Wigley, T. M. L., Angell, J. K. & Jones, P. D. in Detecting the Climatic Effects of Increasing
(eds MacCracken, M. C. & Luther, F. M.) 29-53 (U.S. Dept of Energy, 1985).
15. Wright, P. B. Mon. Weath. Reu 114 (in the press).
of 4.75
Carbon Dioxide (eds MacCracken, M. C. & Luther, F. M.) 55-90 (U.S. Dept of Energy,
16. Folland, C. K., Parker, D. E. & Newman, M. in Proc. 9th Annual Climate Diagnosti
Earth's
1985).
Workshop. 70-85 (U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Washington DC, 1984).
2. Hansen, J. et al. Science 213, 957-966 (1981).
effects.
17. Folland, C. K. & Kates, F. E. in Milankovitch and Climate (eds Berger, A., Imbrie,
3. Shearman, R. J. Met. Mag. 112, 1-10 (1983).
Hays, J., Kukla, G. & Saltzman, B.) 721-727 (Reidel, Dordrecht, 1984).
detecto
4. Folland, C. K., Parker, D. E. & Kates, F. E. Nature 310, 670-673 (1984).
18. Barnett, T. P. Mon. Weath. Rev. 112, 303-312 (1984).
5.
of the
Woodruff, S. D. in Proc. 3rd Conf. on Climate Variations and Symp. on Contemporary Climate:
19. Cayan, D. R. Mon. Weath. Rev. 108, 1293-1301 (1980).
1850-2100, 14-15 (American Meteorological Society, Boston, 1985).
20. Saur, J. F. T. J. appl. Met. 2, 417-425 (1963).
The
6.
Slutz, R. J. et al Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set Release 1 (NOAA Environ-
21. James, R. W. & Fox, P, T. Comparative sea-surface temperature measurements, Mari
signed
mental Research Laboratories, Boulder, 1985).
Science Affairs Rep. No. 5, WMO Publ. No. 336 (Geneva, 1972).
7. Wigley, T. M. L., Jones, P. D. & Kelly, P. M. in The Greenhouse Effect, Climatic Change,
intensi
and Ecosystems (eds Bolin, B., Döös, B. R., Jäger, J. & Warrick, R. A.) (SCOPE series,
22. Kirkaldy, A. W. British Shipping, Its History, Organization and Importance (Kegan
Trench, Trubner, London, 1919).
3-yr da
Wiley, in the press).
8. Paltridge, G. W. & Woodruff, S. Mon. Weath. Rev. 109, 2427-2434 (1981).
23. Krümmel, O. Handbuch der Ozeanographie, Vol. I (Engelhorn, Stuttgart, 1907).
were St
24. Brooks, C. F. Mon. Weath. Rev. 54, 241-253 (1926).
9. Paltridge, G. W. Mon. Weath. Rev. 112, 1093-1095 (1984).
25. Raper, S. C. B., Wigley, T. M. L., Mayes, P. R., Jones, P. D. & Salinger, M. J. Mon West
were
a
10. Barnett, T. P. in Detecting the Climatic Effects of Increasing Carbon Dioxide (eds Mac-
Rev. 112, 1341-1353 (1984).
Cracken, M. C. & Luther, F. M.) 91-107 (U.S. Dept of Energy, 1985).
angle
11. Jones, P. D. et al. J. Clim. appl Met. 25, 161-179 (1986).
26. Raper, S. C. B., Wigley, T. M. L., Jones, P. D., Kelly, P. M., Mayes, P. R. & Limbert,
W. S. Nature 306, 458-459 (1984).
permit
12. Jones, P. D., Raper, S. C. B. & Wigley, T. M. L. J. Clim. appl. Met. 25 (in the press).
13. Bradley, R. S., Kelly, P. M., Jones, P. D., Diaz, H. F. & Goodess, C. A Climatic Data Bank
27. Kelly, P. M., Jones, P. D., Sear, C. B., Cherry, B. S. G. & Tavakol, R. K. Mon. Weath
muon
110, 71-83 (1982).
for the Northern Hemisphere Land Areas, 1851-1980, DoE Tech. Rep. No. TR017 (U.S.
Dept of Energy, 1985).
28. Wigley, T. M. L. & Schlesinger, M. E. Nature 315, 649-652 (1985).
phy, W
29. Reynolds, R. W. & Gemmill, W. H. Trop. Ocean-Atmos. Newslett. No. 23, 4-5 (1984),
rigidity
79% of
LETTERS TO NATURE
the cyc
AU
10 pc
Observation of terrestrial
to near-surface meteorological effects, and temperature effects
the det
production height would produce intensity variations nearly
N
orbital motion using the
of phase with the observed effect. Analysis of the arrival times
occurri
cosmic-ray Compton-Getting effect
10⁸ muons during a period of 5.4 yr yields a fractional amp
tude variation of 2.5+0.6 10⁻⁴, with a maximum near dawn,
D. J. Cutler* & D. E. Groom*
08: 1.0 h local mean solar time (LT). The expected amplity
is 3.40 10⁻⁴, with the maximum at 06:00 LT.
Department of Physics, University of Utah, Salt Lake City,
Compton and Getting¹ showed that a cosmic-ray detect
op
Utah 84112, USA
with an energy threshold would observe an enhanced intensi
* Present addresses: Instrumentation Laboratory, North 3939 Freya,
when it moved along its direction of maximum sensitivity
period
Spokane Washington 99207, USA (D.J.C.); Supercollider Central
respect to the rest frame of the cosmic-ray plasma. If the cosmi
Design Group, LBL 90-4040, Berkeley, California 94720, USA (D.E.G.)
ray energy distribution were a power law of the form
the fractional intensity enhancement above a fixed energy three
differet
old should be
Using underground observations, we have found a small diurnal
amplitude modulation of the cosmic-ray muon intensity which
agrees in amplitude and phase with a first-order relativistic effect
where 0 is the angle between the direction of detector sensitivi
due to the Earth's motion, as discussed by Compton and Getting
and its velocity vector. A term v/c arises because the detect
more than fifty years ago. The parent particles are sufficiently
sweeps out a column of the cosmic-ray plasma, another ten
rigid (~1.5 TeV/c) that solar and geomagnetic effects should be
2v/c because the solid angle transformation increases
minor. The muon flux deep underground is relatively insensitive
(solid
intensity in the direction of motion, and a term (γ-1)0
(not included)
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 92, NO. D11, PAGES 13,345-13,372, NOVEMBER 20, 1987
Global Trends of Measured Surface Air Temperature
JAMES HANSEN
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Institute for Space Studies, New York
SERGEJ LEBEDEFF
Sigma Data Services Corporation, New York
the 1000 period km 1880-1985. The temperature changes at mid- and high latitude stations separated by less than on
We analyze surface air temperature data from available meteorological stations with principal focus
distance are shown to be highly correlated; at low latitudes the correlation falls off more rapidly with
accurate long-term variations. Error estimates are based in part on studies of how accurately the provide actual
for nearby stations. We combine the station data in a way which is designed to
dimensional station distributions are able to reproduce temperature change in a global data set produced by a three-
general circulation model with realistic variability. We find that meaningful global
stations temperature change can be obtained for the past century, despite the fact that the meteorological
of are confined mainly to continental and island locations. The results indicate a global warming
northern about 0.5°-0.7°C in the past century, with warming of similar magnitude in both hemispheres; the
in the between 1965 and 1980 raised the global mean temperature in 1980 and 1981 to the highest level
trend hemisphere result is similar to that found by several other investigators. A strong warming
earlier period of instrumental records. The warm period in recent years differs qualitatively from the
while warm period centered about 1940; the earlier warming was focused at high northern latitudes,
change in each of the eight latitude zones. A computer tape of the derived regional and global
the recent warming is more global. We present selected graphs and maps of the temperature
temperature changes is available from the authors.
1. INTRODUCTION
Surface air temperature has been measured at a large
global climate forcings, such as increasing atmospheric CO2.
mber of meteorological stations for the past century,
In this paper we use the temperature records of meteorolog-
ical stations to obtain an estimate of global surface air
minly at northern hemisphere land locations. These station
temperature change, and we estimate the errors due to
data have been used by a number of investigators [e.g.,
incomplete spatial coverage.
Willett, 1950; Mitchell, 1961; Budyko, 1969; Vinnikov et al.,
Jones et al. [1986c] recently published an estimate of
2980; Yamamoto and Hoshiai, 1980; Jones et al., 1982, 1986a;
Times and Kelly, 1983; Bradley et al., 1985] to estimate
global near-surface temperature change obtained by combin-
Imperature change, with appropriate caveats concerning
ing the surface air temperature measurements of meteorolog-
ical stations with marine surface air and surface water
extrictions of spatial coverage (cf. review by Wigley et al.
286]). Analysis of ocean surface temperature change has
temperature measurements. We compare their results with
the been made [Paltridge and Woodruff, 1981; Bannett, 1984;
ours at the end of this paper; our global mean and hemi-
dand et al., 1984] on the basis of ship data. Because the
spheric mean results are generally in good agreement with
theirs.
and and ocean data sets each have their own problems
In section 2 we define the surface air temperature data
accerning data quality and uniformity over long periods
set we employ, including illustration of the global distribu-
previously cited references above, especially Barnett
tion of stations, and we estimate the area over which the
[984] and Jones et al. [1986a]), it seems better to analyze
temperature change obtained from a given station is
two data sets separately, rather than lumping them
meaningful. In section 3 we describe the method we use to
ther prior to analysis. Another valuable source of global
Imperature data is provided by the radiosonde stations
combine the records of different stations, which is designed
fagell and Korshover, 1983]. This source includes data
to retain temperature change information whil. minimizing
through the troposphere and lower stratosphere but is
effects of incomplete spatial and tempera! coverage. In
extricted to the period from 1958 to the present.
section 4 we present detailed graphs of our results for
Although it is safer to restrict temperature analyses to
global, hemispheric, zonal and regional temperature change.
prions with dense station coverage, there is a great
In section 5 we make several checks of the significance of
Rentive for trying to obtain estimates of long term global
the inferred trends, for example, by using an artificial
imperature change. Such global data would provide the
global temperature history generated by a three-dimensional
general circulation model to obtain a measure of the error
appropriate comparisons for global climate models and
would enhance our ability to detect possible effects of
due to-incomplete spatial coverage, by reanalyzing the
northern hemisphere temperature trend using a station
distribution comparable to that available in the southern
hemisphere, and by omitting urban stations to test for
Copyright 1987 by the American Geophysical Union.
possible anthropogenic heat island effects. In section 6 we
compare the derived hemispheric and global temperature
rnumber 7D0578.
change with the recent results of Jones et al. [1986c] and
Angell and Korshover [1983; private communication, 1987].
13,345
HANSEN AND LEBEDEFF GLOBAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS
13,354
1.8
1.8
1.5
1.5
Annual Mean
1.2
1.2
5 Year Running Mean
0.9
0.9
0.6
0.6
0.3
0.3
AT(°C)
0
0
AT(°C)
-0.3
-0.3
64-90°N
64-90°S
-0.6
-0.6
-0.9
-0.9
-1.2
-
-1.5
+
44 N
44-64°S
0.6
0.6
I
0.3
0.3
)(°C)
0
0
AT(°C)
-0.3
-0.3
-0.6
24-44°N
24-44°S
0.3
0.3
AT(°C)
0
0
AT(°C)
-0.3
-0.3
0-24°N
0-24°S
0.3
0.3
(°C) AT(°C)
0
0
AT(°C)
-0.3
-0.3
0.6
-0.6
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
Date
Date
in
Fig. 7. Surface air temperature change for the eight latitude zones of Figure 2. Graphical details as in Figure 6
160
( )
data-free areas with the oceans. However, based on the the high northern latitude zones. For most zones or
little trend
GW
"CORRESPONDENCE TRACKING"
TYPE:
INFORMATION
DOCUMENT NUMBER: 9121356
FROM:
WOODROW WILSON INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR SCHOLARS
TO:
DR. BROMLEY
DATE OF
CORRESPONDENCE: 04/27/91
SUBJECT: RE: THE LACK OF A CONSENSUS WITHIN THE SCIENTIFIC
COMMUNITY ON THE EXISTENCE OF SIGNIFICANT GREENHOUSE
WARMING FROM RISING LEVELS OF CARBON DIOXIDE.
ASSIGNED TO:
ACTION REQUIRED:
SENDER'S DUE DATE:
OSTP DUE DATE:
DATE COMPLETED:
COPIES TO: ENVIRONMENT
WHITE HOUSE TRACKING #:
CONTACT PERSON: DR. SINGER
REMARKS:
DATE RECEIVED: 05/07/91
FILE: ENVIRONMENT
THE WOODROW WILSON CENTER
1121356
WAVED
SI MAY 7 P5: 14
April 27, 1991
OFFICE OF THE
O. Allen Bromley
DIRECTOR
White House Sciene Advisor
1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W.
Washington, DC 20500
Dear Mr. Bromley:
Contrary to conventional wisdom, there does not exist today a consensus within the
scientific community on the existence of significant greenhouse warming from rising
levels of carbon dioxide.
More and more prominent atmospheric scientists are calling into question the
validity of current climate models, and consider control efforts--lacking credible
support from science and cost-benefit analysis--to be ill-advised, premature and,
worse, likely counterproductive.
Underscoring that point is the enclosed article, just published in the journal
Cosmos. Its authors are among the most renown names in energy and atmospheric
research:
Dr. Roger Revelle, winner of the 1990 National Medal of Science, initiated the
program of global CO2 measurements that is widely credited with focusing world
attention on the greenhouse effect.
Dr. S. Fred Singer was the first scientist to predict the increase in atmospheric
methane--an important greenhouse gas--from human activities.
Dr. Chauncey Starr, winner of the 1990 National Medal of Technology and a widely
recognized expert on nuclear energy, is the author of seminal papers on technical
and societal risk analysis.
You will note that the National Academy of Sciences report, "Policy Implications of
Greenhouse Warming," released this month, supports the thesis of the Cosmos article
recommending energy conservation and efficiency increases that make economic sense.
These should be done--regardless of whether there is greenhouse warming or not.
You should also note the research paper by climate modeler Prof. Michael
Schlesinger of the University of Illinois, published last month in the scientific journal
Nature. His calculations clearly show that there is no need for immediate action: A delay
for even a decade would have little impact on future climate.
If you would like additional comments on this important environmental issue, Dr.
Singer can be reached at his Washington office at 202-357-2879 or at home at 703-
503-5064.
WOODROW WILSON INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR SCHOLARS
1000 JEFFERSON DRIVE. S.W. WASHINGTON, D.C. 20560
202:357:2429 TELEX 264729 FAX 202:357:4439
"What to Do About Greenhouse Warming: Look Before You Leap,"
Cosmos, Vol. 1, No. 1. pp. 28-33
ABOUT THE AUTHORS:
As director of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, DR.
ROGER REVELLE initiated the program of global CO₂ measurements
that is widely credited with focusing world attention on the
greenhouse effect. Dr. Revelle has served as science advisor
to the U.S. Department of the Interior and as director of the
Harvard Center for Population Studies, and is now a professor
of science and public policy at the University of California at
San Diego. A member of the National Academy of Science,
Revelle was awarded the National Medal of Science in 1990.
DR. S. FRED SINGER was the first scientist to predict the
increase in atmospheric methane an important greenhouse gas--
from human activities. Dr. Singer has served as chief
scientist at the U.S. Department of Transportation and as
deputy assistant administrator of the Environmental Protection
Agency. He was the first director of the U.S. weather
satellite program and developed the currently used satellite
technology for measuring ozone in the upper atmosphere. A
professor of environmental sciences at the University of
Virginia, Singer is currently a guest scholar at the Woodrow
Wilson International Center for Scholars. His most recent book
is Global Climate Change (Paragon House, 1990).
Winner of the 1990 National Medal of Technology, DR. CHAUNCEY
STARR is the founding president of the Electric Power Research
Institute in Palo Alto, California, former president of Atomics
International, and former dean of engineering at the University
of California at Los Angeles. A widely respected expert on
nuclear energy and a member of the National Academy of
Engineering, Starr has designed nuclear reactors and fuel
cycles and has published seminal papers on technical and
societal risk analysis.
28
COSMOS 1991
WHAT TO DO ABOUT
GREENHOUSE WARMING:
LOOK BEFORE YOU LEAP
S. Fred Singer
Roger Revelle
Chauncey Starr
G
reenhouse warming has emerged as one of
sources-trillions of dollars, by some estimates-to
the most complex and controversial envi-
increase our economic and technological resilience so
ronmental and foreign-policy issues of the
1990s.
that we can then apply specific remedies as necessary
It is an environmental issue because carbon dioxide
to reduce climate change or to adapt to it.
That is not to say that prudent steps cannot be
(CO₂), generated from the prolific burning of oil, gas
taken now; indeed, many kinds of energy conserva-
and coal, is thought to enhance, by trapping heat in
tion and efficiency increases make economic sense
the atmosphere, the natural greenhouse effect that
has kept the planet warm for billions of years. Some
even without the threat of greenhouse warming.
scientists predict drastic climatic changes in the 21st
century.
THE SCIENTIFIC BASE
The scientific base for greenhouse warming
The scientific base for a
(GHW) includes some facts, lots of uncertainty and
just plain lack of knowledge-requiring more ob-
greenhouse warming is too
servations, better theories and more extensive cal-
culations. Specifically, there are reliable measure-
uncertain to justify drastic
ments of the increase in so-called greenhouse gases in
action at this time.
the earth's atmosphere, presumably as a result of
human activities. There is uncertainty about the
strength of sources and sinks for these gases, i.e.,
their rates of generation and removal. There is major
uncertainty and disagreement about whether this in-
It is a foreign-policy issue because, for a number of
reasons, the United States has taken a more cautious
crease has caused a change in the climate during the
last century. There is also disagreement in the scien-
approach to dealing with CO2 emissions than have
tific community about predicted future changes as a
many industrialized nations. Wide acceptance of the
Montreal Protocol, which limits and rolls back the
result of further increases in greenhouse gases. The
manufacture of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) to pro-
models used to calculate future climate are not yet
tect the ozone layer, has encouraged environmental
good enough because the climate-balancing pro-
activists at international conferences the past three
cesses are not sufficiently understood, nor are they
likely to be good enough until we gain more under-
years to call for similar controls on CO2 from fossil-
fuel burning.
standing through observations and experiments.
As a consequence, we cannot be sure whether the
These activists have expressed disappointment
with the White House for not supporting immediate
action. But should the United States assume "leader-
ship" in a hastily-conceived campaign that could
S. Fred Singer ('57) is professor of environmental sciences
cripple the global economy, or would it be more pru-
at the University of Virginia and served as the first di-
dent to assure first, through scientific research, that
rector of the U.S. weather satellite program, among sev-
eral government positions.
the problem is both real and urgent?
We can sum up our conclusions in a simple mes-
Roger Revelle ('43), professor of science and public policy
sage: The scientific base for a greenhouse warming is too
at the University of California at San Diego, is former
uncertain to justify drastic action at this time.
director of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography: He is
There is little risk in delaying policy responses to
a member of the National Academy of. Sciences and last
this century-old problem since there is every expecta-
year received the National Medal of Science:
tion that scientific understanding will be substantially
improved within the next decade. Instead of prema-
Chauncey Starr ('68) is the president emeritus of the Elec-
ture and likely ineffective controls on fuel use that
tric Power Research Institute and former dean of engi-
would only slow down but not stop the further
neering at the University of California at Los Angeles. He
is a member of the National Academy of Engineering.
growth of CO2, we may prefer to use the same re-
Last year he received the National Medal of Technology.
30 COSMOS 1991
conditioning and industrial processes are making an
temperature in the past century; yet the ocean, be-
important contribution but will soon be replaced by
cause of its much greater heat inertia, should control
less-polluting substitutes.
any atmospheric climate change.
Water vapor (H2O) turns out to be the most effec-
Perhaps most interesting are the NOAA studies
tive greenhouse gas by far. It is not manmade, but is
that document a relative rise in night temperatures in
assumed to amplify the warming effects of the gases
the U.S. in the last 60 years, while daytime values
produced by human activities. We don't really know
stayed the same or declined. This is just what one
whether H₂O has increased in the atmosphere or
would expect from the increase in atmospheric green-
whether it will increase in the future-although
house gas concentration. But its consequences, as
that's what all the model calculations assume. In-
University of Virginia climatologist Patrick Michaels
deed, predictions of future warming depend not only
and others have pointed out, are benign: A longer
on the amount but also on the horizontal and espe-
growing season, fewer frosts, no increase in soil
cially the vertical distribution of H₂O, and on
evaporation.
whether it will be in the atmosphere in the form of a
It is therefore fair to say that we haven't seen the
gas or as liquid cloud droplets or as ice particles. The
huge greenhouse warming, of between 0.7 and 2.5
current computer models are not complete enough to
degrees C, expected from the conventional theories.
test these crucial points.
Why not? This scientific puzzle has many suggested
solutions:
The warming has been "soaked up" by the
THE CLIMATE RECORD
ocean and will appear after a delay of some decades.
Plausible-but there is no evidence to support this
The issue now is whether the 25 percent increase of
theory until deep-ocean temperatures are measured
CO2 in the atmosphere, mainly since World War II,
on a routine basis, as suggested by Scripps Institution
calls for immediate and drastic action to limit and roll
oceanographer Walter Munk. Feasibility tests are cur-
back global energy use. Taking account of increases
rently underway, using a sound source at Heard Is-
in the other trace gases that produce greenhouse ef-
land in the South Indian Ocean and a global network
fects, we have already gone halfway to an effective
GHG doubling-something that cannot be reversed
in our lifetime-and, according to the prevailing the-
ory, locked in a temperature increase of about 1.6
degrees Celsius.
ANOTHER ICE AGE COMING?
But has there been a climate effect caused by the
Global temperatures have been declining since the
increase of greenhouse gases in the last decades? The
dinosaurs roamed the earth some 70 million years
data are ambiguous to say the least. Advocates for
ago. About 2 million years ago, a new "ice age"
immediate action profess to see a global warming of
began-most probably as a result of the drift of the
about 0.5 degrees C since 1880, and point to record
continents and the buildup of mountains. Since that
global temperatures in the 1980s and the warmest
time, the earth has seen 17 or more cycles of glacia-
year on record in 1990. Most atmospheric scientists
tion, interrupted by short (10,000 to 12,000 years)
tend to be cautious, however; they call attention to
interglacial or warm periods. We are now in such an
the fact that the greatest temperature increase oc-
interglacial interval, the Holocene, that started
curred before the major rise in greenhouse gas con-
10,800 years ago. The onset of the next glacial cycle
cannot be very far away.
centration. It was followed by a quarter-century de-
It is believed that the length of a glaciation cycle,
crease between 1940 and 1965 when concern arose
about 100,000 to 120,000 years, is controlled by
about an approaching ice age! Following a sharp in-
small changes in the seasonal and latitudinal distri-
crease during 1975-80, there has-been no clear up-
bution of solar energy received as a result of changes
ward trend during the 80s despite some very warm
in the earth's orbit and spin axis. While the theory
individual years and record GHG increases. Simi-
can explain the timing, the detailed mechanism is not
larly, global atmospheric (rather than surface) tem-
well understood-especially the sudden transition
peratures measured by Tiros weather satellites show
from full glacial to intergiacial warming. Very likely
no trend in the last decade.
an ocean-atmosphere interaction is triggered and be-
comes the direct cause of the transition in climate.
Scientists Kirby Hanson, Thomas Karl and George
The climate record also reveals evidence for major
Maul of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Ad-
climatic changes on time scales shorter than those for
ministration (NOAA) find no overall warming in the
astronomical cycles. During the past millennium, the
U.S. temperature record, contrary to the global record
earth experienced a "climate optimum" around 1100
assembled by James Hansen of the National Aero-
A.D., when Vikings found Greenland to be green
nautics and Space Administration (NASA). Using a
and Vinland (Labrador?) able to support grape grow-
technique that eliminates urban "heat islands" and
ing. The "Little Ice Age" found European glaciers
other local distorting effects, they confirm the tem-
advancing well before 1600 and suddenly retreating
perature rise before 1940, followed, however, by a
starting in 1860. The warming reported in the global
general decline. Reginald Newell and colleagues at
temperature record since 1880 may thus simply be
the escape from this Little Ice Age rather than our
the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) re-
entrance into the human greenhouse.
port no substantial change in the global sea-surface
32
COSMOS 1991
translate to longer growing seasons and fewer frosts.
more direct data on current sea-level changes.
Increased global precipitation should also be benefi-
Summarizing the available evidence, we conclude
cial to plant growth.
that even if significant warming were to occur in the
Keep in mind also that year-to-year changes at any
next century, the net impact to the entire planet may
location are far greater and more rapid than what
well be beneficial-with some regions enjoying im-
might be expected from greenhouse warming; and
proved climate, some encountering worse. This
nature, crops and people are already adapted to such
would be even more true if the long-anticipated ice
changes. It is the extreme climate events that cause
age were on its way.
the great ecological and economic problems: Crip-
In view of the uncertainties about the degree of
pling winters, persistent droughts, extreme heat
warming, and the even greater uncertainty about its
spells, killer hurricanes and the like. But there is no
possible impact-what should we do? During the
indication from modeling or from actual experience
time that an expanded research program reduces or
that such extreme events would become more fre-
eliminates these uncertainties, we can be putting into
quent if greenhouse warming becomes appreciable.
effect policies and pursue approaches that make
The exception might be tropical cyclones, which—
sense even if the greenhouse effect did not exist.
Balling and Randall Cerveney argue-would be
more frequent but weaker, would cool vast areas of
the ocean surface and increase annual rainfall. In
ENERGY POLICIES
sum, climate models predict that global precipitation
should încrease by 10 to 15 percent, and polar tem-
Conserve energy by discouraging wasteful use
peratures should warm the most, thus reducing the
globally. Conservation can best be achieved by pric-
driving force for severe winter-weather events.
ing rather than by command-and-control methods. If
the price can include the external costs that are
avoided by the user and loaded onto someone else,
this strengthens the argument for proper pricing. The
We can be putting into
idea is to have the polluter or the beneficiary pay the
effect policies and pursue
cost. An example would be peak-pricing for electric
power. Yet another example, appropriate to the
approaches that make sense
greenhouse discussion, is to increase the tax on gaso-
even if the greenhouse effect
line to make it a true highway-user fee-instead of
having most capital and maintenance costs paid by
did not exist.
various state taxes, as is done now. Congress has
lacked the courage for such a direct approach, prefer-
ring instead regulation that is mostly ineffective and
produces large indirect costs for the consumer.
There is finally the question of sea-level rise as
Improve efficiency in energy use. Energy effi-
glaciers melt-and fear of catastrophic flooding. The
ciency should be attainable without much interven-
cryosphere certainly contains enough ice to raise sea
tion, provided it pays for itself. A good rule of thumb:
level by 100 meters; and, conversely, during recent
If it isn't economic, then it probably wastes energy in
ice ages, enough ice accumulated to drop sea level
the process and we shouldn't be doing it. Over-con-
100 meters below the present value. But these are
servation can waste as much energy as under-con-
extreme possibilities; tidal-gauge records of the past
servation. (For example, destroying all older cars
century suggest that sea level has risen modestly,
would certainly raise the fuel efficiency of the fleet,
about 0.3 meters. But the gauges measure only rela-
but replacing these cars would consume more energy
tive sea level, and many of the gauge locations have
in their manufacture.) If energy is properly priced,
dropped because of land subsidence. Besides, the test
i.e., not subsidized, the job for government is to re-
locations are too highly concentrated geographically,
move the institutional and other road blocks:
mostly on the U.S. East Coast, to permit global con-
Provide information to consumers, especially on
clusions. The situation will improve greatly, how-
life-cycle costs for home heating, lighting, refriger-
ever, in the next few years as precise absolute global
ators and other appliances.
data become available from a variety of satellite sys-
Encourage-but not force-the turnover and re-
tems.
placement of older, less efficient (and often more pol-
In the meantime, satellite radar-altimeters have al-
luting) capital equipment: Cars, machinery, power
ready given a surprising result. As reported by NASA
plants. Some existing policies that make new equip-
scientist Jay Zwally in Science, Greenland ice-sheets
ment too costly go counter to this goal.
are gaining in thickness-a net increase in the ice
Stimulate the development of more efficient svs-
stored in the cryosphere and an inferred drop in sea
tems, such as a combined-cycle power plant or a
level-leading to somewhat uncertain predictions
more efficient internal-combustion engine.
about future sea level. Modeling results suggest little
Use non-fossil-fuel energy sources wherever this
warming of the Antarctic Ocean because the heat is
makes economic sense. Nuclear power is competitive
convected to deeper levels. It is clearly important to
now, and in many countries is cheaper than fossil-
verify these results by other techniques and also get
fuel power-yet it is often opposed on environmental
climate che tye
Aor
April 199, Natine
COMMENTARY
ic and
er and
ng the
Does climate still matter?
devel-
refore
Jesse H. Ausubel
n your
90) of
We may be discovering climate as it becomes less important to well-being. A range of technologies appears to have
up of
lessened the vulnerability of human societies to climate variation.
dered
man)
rge in
AMIDST
widespread agreement that the
ogy of new hardware. Major innovations, in
planet is committed to at least some climatic
and social adaptation. We took siestas when
onse-
transportation for example, are in fact clus-
nnec-
change induced by human activity, there is
the sun was high and sought refuge in hill sta-
ters of innovations involving not only new
re of
growing pressure to "slow the greenhouse
tions in the monsoon season. Large pastoral
materials and physical processes but also
were
express" (ref. 1). Here I examine climate
and nomadic populations followed the sea-
new forms of social organization, including
through the lens of technology and innova-
sonal availability of resources and avoided
rary
financing and management. Transportation
run
tion, to clarify what adaptations have suc-
climatic stresses. Much of the planet re-
systems exemplify technology that has been
the
ceeded and the trends in vulnerability to cli-
mained seasonally or entirely uninhabitable
important in adaptation to climate through
vhile
mate. I also examine whether the greenhouse
for climatic reasons. With current technol-
expanding the availability of food from a
ing.
effect by itself will call into play new techno-
local to a global scale. Reliance on food from
ogy many people can live in virtually any cli-
A' is
logies, or whether the evolution of technol-
afar not only diversifies diet, but also spreads
mate that now exists. Modern water supply
ogy will largely be 'business as usual' regard-
production risks across more climatic zones.
and heating and ventilation systems, along
Mrs
less of climate change. Finally, I identify
with medicines (for example, quinine and
Early communities drew the bulk of their
rise
some ways that government may assist adap-
vaccines) and public health measures, have
food from small areas. One of the earliest city
em.
tation.
enabled large populations to inhabit for-
states, Uruk in Mesopotamia, probably grew
eas
My focus is on adaptability of human sys-
merly uninhabitable regions. By 1980 the
most of its sustenance except for animals
tems, including agriculture. Adaptability of
population in semiarid, desert and mountain
m-
within 20 kilometres of the city walls². Two
ast
ecosystems and the ethics of human beha-
regions had passed 35 million or 15 per cent
millennia later, Greece and Rome obtained
a
viour that brings about large-scale transfor-
of the US population⁵. Lacking modern
most of their food from overseas colonies
ies.
mations of the Earth must also be considered
technology, these zones accomodated less
across the Aegean and Mediterranean seas³.
to
in balancing responses to the greenhouse
than one per cent of the population in 1860
At its height, Rome acquired 200,000 tons of
are
issue.
and six per cent in 1920.
grain annually for its one million inhabitants,
as
What are often labelled adaptive measures
most of it shipped from Africa, Sardinia and
Preferences
are themselves the impacts of climatic
Sicily. What marine transportation did in the
RBA
change. Innumerable adaptations in food,
The ability to colonize almost the entire
classical world, the steam locomotive did in
clothing and shelter are responses to the spa-
planet is due to the human ability to carry
the nineteenth century, halving the cost of
tial and temporal variability of climate. Hu-
with us that particular range of environment
land transport. The railroads penetrated the
mans do not wait guilelessly to receive an im-
in which we can survive and prosper⁶. In
great land masses of North America and
pact, bear the loss, then respond with an
wealthier societies, preferences are shifting
Australasia. Their operations were little
adaptation. Rather they attempt to antici-
toward hot and dry climates that were forbid-
affected by climate, topography or other
pate and forstall problems.
ding a century ago. Evidence of lessening
local conditions. Great parts of the new
human vulnerability is also found in health.
Innovations
worlds were dedicated to cultivation of single
For example, a flattening of monthly rates of
crops to supply world markets and to smooth
Technical innovations relevant to climate
total mortality in Japan between 1899 and
availability through the year.
y
and their diffusion occur in all societies and
1973 is explained partly by diminution of the
Technological inventions and innovations
ic
sectors and in many forms. Technology
previous, climatically driven seasonal
ly
includes both hardware (for example, mater-
that have had roles in human ability to adapt
peaks⁷.
ials, physical structures, devices and
to climate over the last 100 years or so range
- -
Production can now proceed more or less
widely4: food preservatives (1873) to over-
nt
machines) and software (rules and recipes
continuously in severe environments. For
ir
for behaviour).
come problems of seasonal food production;
light bulbs (1879) to make work safe and ef-
example, North Sea offshore oil platforms
a
Illustrative innovations of hardware are
operate 24 hours per day, 365 days per year.
fective indoors; aluminum (1887) and other
cisterns and dams to store water, tractors to
At a price, services, such as aviation, are now
structural materials to resist environmental
speed rapid harvests, and new crop cultivars
available at almost all times and places. Avi-
deterioration; refrigeration (1895) and air-
to reduce susceptibility to drought. Perhaps
conditioning (1902, 1906) to facilitate activ-
ation began as a system that was extremely
less obvious, but of great importance for
ity in hot seasons and locations; automobiles
sensitive to weather and is increasingly less
adaptation to climate, are information tech-
so, due to expanded range; avionics, radar
(1890s) to provide personal transportation
nologies. In the United States, during several
that is much less sensitive to climate than
and guidance systems; understanding of
years in the 1980s sales of information tech-
thunderstorms, wind shear, and other
horses or pedal bicycles; mechanical wind-
nologies to the agricultural sector were com-
weather phenomena; and changes in con-
shield wipers (1916) to see in the rain; anti-
parable to sales of farm equipment. The long
struction materials. Crops and livestock can
freeze (ethylene glycol) (1929) to safeguard
history of software innovations includes tide
now be produced 'indoors' protected from
motors in winter; frozen food (first sales,
tables, irrigation scheduling, and weather
the elements. In some cases, alternatives to
1930) to diversify diet among regions and
forecasts. Along with the readily classified
outdoor production are so advantageous
hardware and software are climate-related
seasons; radio-beam navigation (1934) to fly
in poor visibility; and weather (1960) and
that a crop is displaced. Originally spurred by
behavioural, social and institutional innova-
Earth resources (1972) satellites for analysis
the need for supplies in wartime, synthetic
tions, such as agricultural credit banks,
and forecasts of weather and climate.
rubber from petrochemical feedstocks,
national parks, green political parties and
In many respects we seem to be 'climate-
which is not subject to the vagaries of pests,
flood insurance.
droughts and floods, and other risks out-
proofing' society, making ourselves less sub-
Software and social innovations are al-
doors, has overwhelmed natural rubber from
ject to natural phenomena. For centuries and
most always indispensable for the technol-
millennia we relied mainly on behavioural
trees. In 1990, ten per cent of US fish pro-
duction was in the controlled environment of
NATURE
VOL 350
APRIL
COMMENTARY
fish farms⁸, up from one per cent in 1980 and
other forces are creating a more 'brittle' sys-
100
projected to reach 20 per cent in 2000.
tem in the face of climate change.
Japan
USSR
Consumption is also insulating itself from
Society appears to proceed along 'techno-
80
USA
environment. Inside most shopping malls,
logical trajectories' that enable, for example,
for example, only fashions or decorations
more travel, more financial transactions, and
60
signal the season. Sports are increasingly
more messages. The succession of techno-
played in domed stadiums isolated from the
logies that make possible this increased ac-
Per cent
France
40
weather. In affluent societies, winter vaca-
tivity appears to diminish in sensitivity to cli-
tions in warm climates have become a popu-
mate. Although it was usually true that
UK
FRG
20
lar adaptation to escape climatic impacts.
neither rain nor sleet stayed the American
Forecasting is itself a key technology that
postman from his rounds, no system of post-
0
reduces vulnerability to weather and hence
men could be as faithful as the modern tele-
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
climate. Forecasts can help accommodate
communications system that now carries a
Year
peak loads in electric power systems during
much larger share of messages than the old
FIG. 1 Share of the workforce employed in ag-
heat waves. Improved forecasting, in con-
system of letters. Similarly, a system of en-
riculture²¹.
junction with increased incomes and better
ergy from wood and hay was more climati-
lation is now engaged in agriculture. If the
transportation, has also enabled more
cally sensitive than one reliant on oil and
current trend continues, this fraction should
people to enjoy recreation in all seasons.
natural gas. Water and wind power are, of
diminish to 20-25 per cent by 2050.
course, more sensitive to climate. In the late
What are the times characteristic of tech-
Synchronicity
eleventh century, the areas under Norman
nical innovation and diffusion of techno-
The decline of 'synchronicity', the naturally
rule in England had about one water mill for
logies in relation to the time of human-
enforced time regimen of social groups, is a
every 50 households¹⁰, providing power to
induced climatic change? Taking account of
feature of life in advanced societies. In agri-
grind grains, work metal, weave textiles and
both CO₂ and non-CO2 greenhouse gases,
cultural societies, the rhythm of life is
cut wood. In 1694 France had 80,000 flour
major climatic shifts are expected during
strongly determined and coordinated for al-
mills, 15,000 industrial mills, and 500 iron
40-50 years (ref. 11). A retrospect on tech-
most all by the seasons and the associated de-
and metallurgical works, altogether almost
nology during the past century suggests the
mands for labour in the field. In advanced
100,000 facilities powered by wind and
extent of change during the decades to come:
economies, where both production and con-
water. Although such an industrial infra-
in 1890 there was little farming in California
sumption may proceed almost continously
structure is tightly adapted using climatic
and Australia, and key technologies did not
and only about five per cent of the popula-
resources, it is also vulnerable to climate
yet exist or were not widely applied to im-
tion farms, weather and climate no longer
variability and change.
pound and transport water, or to transport
control schedules. The fact that the peak sea-
The trend toward less climatic vulnera-
son for holidays in advanced societies is the
and store agricultural products promptly; in
bility also exists in transportation. Well into
1903 the Wright Brothers flew 59 seconds at
late summer, a peak season for labour in agri-
the nineteenth century, sailing vessels were
Kitty Hawk, North Carolina, whereas in
cultural societies, indicates the transforma-
the preferred long-distance transport and
1990 in the United States, over 500 million
tion that has taken place.
frequently becalmed. World steamship ton-
air passengers flew around 450 X 109
In the late 1970s and early 1980s a group
nage exceeded sailing tonnage only in 1893.
miles¹²; commercial transatlantic aviation,
of US researchers explored the 'lessening'
Although coal cost more than wind, steam-
relying on the jet engine, superseded travel
hypothesis of climate impacts9, which states
ships rapidly became cheaper as well as faster
by ocean liners about 1960; tourism has been
that persistent and adaptive societies,
than sailing ships, because their schedules
extended to Antarctica, and scientific bases
through their technological and social organ-
were more regular and avoided the circui-
ization, lessen the impacts of recurrent cli-
there are occupied year round, despite the
tous routes required by sailing vessels.
fact that it was only in 1911-1912 that Roald
matic fluctuations of similar magnitude upon
Transport underground through tunnels by
Amundsen reached the South Pole and
the directly susceptible population and indi-
high-speed magnetically levitated trains is
Robert Scott died there; penicillin, the first
rectly lessen the impacts on the entire so-
already on the drawing boards in Japan; such
ciety. In the cases studied, substantial evi-
important antibiotic, was discovered by
systems would be less sensitive to climate
dence was found to support the hypothesis of
Alexander Fleming in 1928, and large-scale
than the surface and air systems now in use.
production began only as recently as 1943;
lessening impacts. For example, in the US
Climate is only one of several factors that
nuclear power for electricity generation first
Great Plains, the most severe disruptions to
have driven the evolution of systems of com-
came into use in the late 1950s, but within
livelihood and health occurred during the
munications, transport and energy. It is
about 30 years it was able to provide over 70
earliest periods, when incidences of malnu-
probably secondary. But vulnerability to cli-
trition and starvation were recorded. Investi-
per cent of France's electric power; until
mate and other environmental forces may be
gation of the more recent periods showed
1965 no satellites were used for any routine
a good proxy for quality and reliability of ser-
application, whereas satellite systems now
much smaller impacts for comparable
vice. To the extent that the systems evolve in
drought stress, because of a variety of adjust-
girdle the Earth, watching for storms, relay-
the direction of higher quality and reliability,
ing communications, and helping ships and
ments and strategies, including more exten-
these trajectories of development may also
planes navigate anywhere on the globe; and
sive and effective anticipatory action.
decrease vulnerability of major systems to
finally, although the microprocessor was
An alternative to the lessening hypothesis
climatic change. It would be useful to ident-
only introduced in 1971 and the personal
is that increasingly elaborate technical and
ify exceptions to this pattern, should they
computer appeared about 1977, Americans
social systems insulate us from the adverse
exist.
effects of recurrent climatic fluctuation at the
are now using over 50 million personal
As incomes depend less on activities out of
computers.
cost of increased vulnerability to catastrophe
doors, societies become less vulnerable to
During the period in question and with or
from less frequent natural and social pertur-
climate. The trend in all developed countries
without climatic change, technology will
bations. In a global economy, such vulnera-
since the industrial revolution began is away
bility might be devolved or shared ever more
transform the way people live. Food, energy,
from employment outdoors (Fig. 1) and to-
transportation and all the other systems that
widely. Presumably this vulnerability to
ward employment in the service sector, most
support human life and the economy will be
catastrophe, surprise or nonlinear effects is
of which is in climate-controlled office build-
changed by technologies that can be glim-
what worries many about the greenhouse ef-
ings and shops. With a lag of 50-100 years
psed now, such as genetic engineering, fu-
fect. But the evidence seems to weigh against
the same trend is found in less developed
sion, superconductivity and desalination, as
the suggestion that technology, lifestyles and
countries, where 40-50 per cent of the popu-
well as by technologies yet to be easily pic-
650
NATURE
COMMENTARY
tured. Fifty to a hundred years will allow the
replacement of most major technolgical sys-
CAPITAL STOCK RENEWAL
Phoenix and Toronto may offer lessons. The
tems. Indeed, 50 years are enough time to
Industry
trend in such places is toward ever larger en-
Renewal period
turnover almost the entire capital stock of
closures of space and passageways connect-
All industries
13.4
the society. About two-thirds of capital stock
ing them, where workers and shoppers are
Manufacturing (all)
15.8
is usually in machines and equipment and
not subject to the elements. Already during
Electrical machinery
9.8
about one-third in buildings and other struc-
much of the year in such cities few people are
Transport machinery
13.2
tures. In Japan, the average renewal period
seen outside on the streets. Technologies for
Pulp and paper
13.7
for capital stock in business, the time it takes
'smarter' buildings and for more efficient
General machinery
14.2
for machinery and equipment in an industry
Chemicals
building materials should be adaptive. Cities
16.6
to be almost completely replaced, ranges
Food stuff
16.7
in developing countries, which are often in
from about 22 years in the textile industry
Steel and non-ferrous
difficult climates to begin with and face wor-
metals
down to ten years or less in such fast-moving
21.1
sening problems of urban pollution, may
Textiles
industries as telecommunications and elec-
22.5
well lack the resources to apply such techno-
trical machinery (see Table). In agriculture
Non-manufacturing (all)
11.8
logies to raise or maintain the quality of life in
Service
the estimated life span of cultivars in the
8.1
the face of changing climate.
Transport and
United States is seven years for maize, eight
Until this century much of the human
telecommunications
10.7
for sorghum and cotton, and nine for wheat
struggle with climate was to keep warm.
Construction
11.9
and soybeans¹³ and most experts believe the
Because the struggle succeeded, in 1850 the
Finance and insurance
12.8
life span of cultivars will grow shorter.
Distribution
population in Europe, a land of well-
15.6
Relative to greenhouse warming, turnover is
Real estate
chronicled and damaging winters, was three
15.8
also fast for nonmachinery capital stock,
Electricity, gas and
times as large as that of Africa and nine times
which includes buildings, pipelines, and so
water supply
15.8
as large as that of Latin America¹⁵. Now a
forth. According to recent surveys, in the
main change in adaptation will be emphasis
Average renewal period for capital stock of
Federal Republic of Germany in 1985 some
on technologies to stay cool. There is already
business corporations in Japan by industrial
60 per cent of the stock is less than 20 years
sector, 1986-87 (ref. 22).
pressure and success in this direction, popu-
old and in the Soviet Union some 80 per cent
lation grows in tropical regions and people
is less than 20 years old (Fig. 2).
migrate south in temperate zones. Chemicals
be possible to put in place much technology
At first such figures may surprise us. But
for refrigeration that do not exacerbate the
that is adjusted to a changing climate. This
some reflection about the built environment
greenhouse effect may thus earn a premium,
can be done without extraordinary measures
relieves the surprise. Consider the office
and, of course, low greenhouse gas emission
given reasonably accurate information about
in
space in a modern city. Most of the space is in
technologies to produce electricity and
the future. For the shortest lifetimes, even
buildings completed in the last 20-30 years.
energy in general.
accurate information about the present cli-
These new buildings are filled with new
For water resources, larger-scale control
mate will do.
equipment, for example, new telephone sys-
of flows may be the trend. The Thames Bar-
That perhaps 90 per cent of the global
tems. Indeed, even older buildings are filled
rage and the Netherlands Rhine Delta
capital stock in the year 2040 will be built
with modern equipment that did not exist 15
scheme may exemplify massive hydraulic
after 1990 does not diminish the significance
or 20 years ago. The same is true for super-
of some long-lived structures. Action may be
systems that will be imitated in areas of major
markets, restaurants and other stores. A
coastal populations. Fresh-water systems in
necessary to protect cities such as Venice,
large fraction of residential housing is simi-
some regions would also be made more ro-
where preservation of historic buildings is
larly young and, in turn, filled largely with
bust by extending networks of supply over
the goal. In such cases, the process of
new domestic appliances of all kinds. If so-
wider spaces through interbasin transfer and
replacement is not relevant.
cieties grow at a rate of 2-3 per cent per year,
other strategies. In practical terms, many of
The adaptations for long-term climatic
as the industrialized societies have for the
the technologies needed may be well-estab-
change will probably mostly be the same as
past 150 years, then half of all capital stock
lished, for example, tunnelling, pumps and
for other climate variation. The techno-
will always be younger than 30 years old.
other technologies traditional to civil and
logies, small and large, that buffer human
Probably the systems that take longest to
mechanical engineering, updated with elec-
activity over the long-term will be the same
build are infrastructures. Even these are con-
tronic sensors and other devices for manage-
ones that mollify the difference between day-
structed in less than a century¹⁴. Many infra-
ment and control. Technologies for manage-
time and nighttime temperatures, protect
structure systems are (or should be) continu-
ment of water demand will be equally or
against normal variability between days,
ously reconstructed. For example, roads are
more attractive in many regions; these would
shield from storms and hail, adjust to the sea-
repaved every 5-15 years, depending on use.
include not only hardware technologies for
sons, and adapt to the wide range of climates
The 7,000-kilometre canal system of the
minimizing leaks, but also software techno-
where people already live.
United States was almost entirely built in the
logies from operations research, as well as
No one has yet presented a radical innova-
economic and other incentives.
30 years between 1820 and 1850. More than
tion uniquely adaptive for the greenhouse
90 per cent of the 300,000-mile US railway
effect. The main innovations directed at the
In agriculture, with a few notable excep-
network was laid in the 65 years between
tions, most emerging technologies are ex-
greenhouse effect are so far organizational,
1855 and 1920. The paving of virtually the
pected to reduce substantially the land and
in particular research groups in universities
entire six million-kilometre surface road sys-
water required¹⁶. At least in the United
and government and assessment groups,
tem of the United States was accomplished
such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Cli-
States the trends in agricultural technology
between 1920 and 1985. The US interstate
are in the direction that should be sought in
mate Change (IPCC). If the future green-
highway system was completed in about 30
view of climatic change. Almost all techno-
house climate in any place will consist of cli-
years from the time that it was announced by
logies that are attractive for agriculture are
mates that already exist somewhere on
President Eisenhower. It is interesting to
Earth, then many of the adaptations may
only more attractive in light of the possibility
consider whether climatic change could re-
look familiar.
of climatic change. Specifically, appealing
quire any public works on this scale; coastal
Because the population of the world is
directions for agricultural innovation might
protection and interbasin water transfer
imploding into cities, it seems logical that
include diversification of crop production by
would seem the most likely candidates.
technologies that make cities habitable in un-
varying maturity, heat and drought toler-
ance, input needs, and end uses; innovation
Because capital stock continuously turns
welcoming climates will be among the tech-
in planting and spacing; collecting and recy-
over on a time scale of a few decades, it will
nologies that are most important. Houston,
cling irrigation run-off; soil moisture conser-
NATURE
VOL 350
25 APRIL 1991
651
COMMENTARY
40
through administrative means based on
water rights. Water transfers accommodate
against a shower. Such technologies diffus
new patterns of climate, as well as changing
rapidly into the society, in a matter of month
30
farming and urban and industrial growth.
or years. Larger and more costly innova
They allow water to be used where it is most
tions, like electric refrigerators, may take 2
Per cent
valuable¹⁸. Flexibility of water transfer is
or 30 years to become pervasive. At the othe
20
important, because the life of water projects
end of the spectrum, large systems, like thos
is often 50-100 years or more¹⁹.
for water and transportation take several de
10
Substantial subsidies for water for irrig-
cades or generations to extend themselve
ation, in particular, lead to prices that en-
fully and may cost tens or hundreds of bil
lions of dollars.
courage inefficiency. There is little incentive
0
to conserve. Higher cost of constructing
Technological performance has improved
<5
5-10
>20
water projects and more demand and com-
throughout human history, and in this cen-
10-20
petition for water for such uses as preserva-
tury waves of innovation have come ever
Age (years)
tion of wildlife, recreation, and cities make
more rapidly²⁰. In many systems, there have
FIG. 2 Age distribution of nonmachinery capi-
the issue serious. Several long-term con-
been steady improvements in efficiency of
tal stock in the FRG, data for 1985 (ref. 23)
tracts in the Central Valley of California pro-
about two per cent per year, so that systems
(hatched bars), and in the Soviet Union (solid
vide water for only $3.50 per acre-foot,
built today, for instance in energy, are about
bars), data as of 1986 (USSR State Commit-
whereas new sources of supply would cost
twice as efficient as those built 30 years ago²¹.
tee on Statistics, Statistics on social indica-
the federal government or the state $200-
Today generating a kilowatt of electricity in a
tors and capital vintage structure in industry,
undated memo, Institute for Social and
300 per acre-foot per year for construction
steam plant takes only 15 per cent as much
Economic Statistics, Moscow; courtesy of A.
alone¹⁸. Allowing and encouraging volun-
fossil fuel as at the turn of the century. A dou-
Grübler, Laxenburg, Austria).
tary marketing of the resource among users
bling of overall efficiency of several major
vation; better moisture-use efficiency and
could help adapt to climate changes and pro-
systems should be possible just by replacing
duce economic benefits. Voluntary water
existing systems with best technologies and
improved use of plastics and other new ma-
transfers could take several forms, including
practices available today. This, of course,
terials; resistance to pests and insects; man-
agement practices; institutional measures;
permanent sales, long-term leases, short-
takes capital, and it is not clear that the ex-
programmes and facilities to support
drought. term leases, and leases contingent on
pected rate of climatic change warrants an
acceleration over the rate of change in physi-
extreme contingencies; and infrastructure.
Although markets may require innovation
cal capital stock that is already occurring, as
Many of these are applications of informa-
by government in providing information and
long as the new stock is acquired with the
tion technologies, as well as biotechnologies
rules, there are also traditional 'hardware'
best information about future climate in
and more traditional agricultural and mech-
mind.
anical technologies. It may be possible to
opportunities for innovation in public works.
Government is the primary purchaser, finan-
The general direction of change in tech-
design and select plants adapted to higher
cier and manager of systems of water supply
nology and civilization is heartening for
concentrations of CO2 and other changes in
and waste disposal, as well as coastal
those anxious about climatic change. The
the atmosphere.
facilities. These take decades to site and
trend is toward systems that are less vulner-
Though many innovations helpful in a
construct and then can last generations.
able to climate. It would seem to be sensible
rapidly changing climate are more likely to
There may be opportunities for government
to maintain this course and not to revert to
come from private enterprise than govern-
ment, governments can help in two ways.
to enhance innovation in infrastructure in
reliance on such technologies as sailing ships
One way governments can aid adaptation
environment. light of the possibility of a changing
and water mills that are more sensitive to cli-
mate. The highest need is probably to assure
is through timely information. One variety is
the inventive genius, economic power, and
assessments of the issues relating to climatic
Conclusion
administrative competence that make the
change. A second important and more oper-
Technologies are available for adaptation to
many technologies useful in adapting to
ational variety of information is improved
weather and climate forecasts. Eventually
climate on a spectrum of space, time and
climate available to the most people.
the climate of the far future will become to-
cost. Within minutes and for a few dollars
one can buy an umbrella for local protection
Jesse H. Ausubel is at The Rockefeller Univer-
morrow's weather. Information about it is
sity, New York, New York 10021-6399, USA.
likely to improve the possibility that it will be
1. Nordhaus, W. D. Setting National Priorities: Policy for the
more resource than hazard.
Nineties (ed. Aaron, H.) 185-211 (Brookings, Washing-
ton, 1990).
Office, Washington, 1990).
States: 1990 110th edition (US Government Printing
There has been a gradual, measured im-
2. Adams, R. McC. & Nissen, H. The Uruk Countryside: The
13. Duvick, D. N. Econ. Botan. 38, 161-178 (1984).
provement in weather forecasting during the
Natural Setting of Urban Societies (University of Chicago
14. Grübler, A. The Rise and Fall of Infrastructures: Dynamics
past 20 years (ref. 17). In the greenhouse
Press, Chicago, 1972).
3. Newman, L. F. (ed.) Hunger in History: Food Shortage,
(Physica, Heidelberg, 1990).
of Evolution and Technological Change in Transport
issue, all nations should find strong motiva-
Poverty, and Deprivation (Blackwell, Oxford, 1990).
15 McEvedy, C. & Jones, R. Atlas of World Population History
tion to improve forecasts and the data and
4. Desmond, K. Harwin Chronology of Inventions, Innova-
(Penguin, New York, 1978).
research underlying them. The quality of
tions, and Discoveries from Pre-History to the Present Day
16. Office of Technology Assessment, Technology, Public Pol-
(Constable, London, 1986).
icy, and the Changing Structure of American Agriculture
weather analyses and forecasts in many de-
5. Schelling, T. C. in Changing Climate (National Research
(US Government Printing Office, Washington, 1986).
veloping countries, especially in the tropics,
Council) 449-482 (National Academy Press, Washing-
17. World Meteorological Organization (WMO) The World
ton, 1983).
6. Escudero, J.C. Climate Impact Assessment (eds Kates, R.
709, Geneva, 1988).
Weather Watch: 25th Anniversary 1963-1988 (WMO No.
is markedly lower than those in developed
countries, particularly in the northern hemis-
W., Ausubel, J. H. & Berberian M.) 251-272 (Wiley, Chi-
18. Wahl, R. W. Markets for Federal Water: Subsidies,
chester, 1985).
Property Rights, and the Bureau of Reclamation (Resour-
phere. Advances in numerical modeling and
7. Weihe, W. H. Proceedings of the World Climate Con-
ces for the Future, Washington, 1989).
extension of technology for monitoring in
ference 313-368 (World Meteorological Organization,
19. Waggoner, P. E. (ed.) Climatic Change and US Water
Geneva, 1979).
Resources (Wiley, New York, 1989).
tropical regions can cause substantial
8. New York Times, 1 August 1990, p. C1.
20. Mensch, G. Stalemate in Technology (Ballinger, Cam-
improvements.
9. Warrick, R. A. Climatic Constraints and Human Activities
bridge, 1979).
A third innovation in information relates
(eds Ausubel, J. & Biswas, A. K.) 93-123 (Pergamon,
21. Nakicenovic, N. & Grübler, A., Technological Progress,
Oxford, 1980).
Structural Change and Efficient Energy Use: Trends world-
to markets. The needs are for facilitation of
10. Reynolds, T. S. Sci. Am. 251(1) 122-130 (1984).
wide and in Austria, International Part (International
information flows and improvements in rules
11. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Scientific
1989). Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg,
for markets, in particular, markets for water.
Assessment of Climate Change, Report to IPCC from
Working Group 1 (World Meteorological Organization,
22. Economic Planning Agency Economic Survey of Japan,
In many nations, water is allocated largely
Geneva, 1990).
1987-1988 (Tokyo, 1989).
12. US Bureau of the Census Statistical Abstract of the United
23. Statistiches Bundesamt Wirtschaft und Statistik 4/89
652
(Metzler-Poeschl, Stuttgart, 1989).
SCIENCE & GOVERNMENT REPORT
22nd Year of Publication
The Independent Bulletin of Science Policy
Volume XXII, No. 11
P. O. Box 6226A, Washington, D. C. 20015
© June 15, 1992
Prelude to Rio
Slogging on in Bethesda
How Bush's Science Aide
NIH Still Deep in Swamps
Got Gored on Capitol Hill
Of Strategic Planning
The worst that can be said about a Presidential Science
"Constitutions should be short and obscure," said
Adviser is that he misinforms the President and misrepre-
Napoleon.
sents scientific and technical issues to the public. The com-
This gift of wisdom has regrettably not been adapted to
mission of both sins was charged to D. Allan Bromley, the
the task of writing a Strategic Plan for the National Institutes
President's Assistant for Science and Technology, by Sena-
of Health, a chore on which innumerable mandarins and
tor Al Gore (D-Tenn.) in an abrasive two-hour encounter on
foot soldiers of biomedical research have been laboring for
environmental issues on May 21.
over a year. So far, they have produced a 500-page draft
Lectured, assailed, and admonished by Gore, Bromley
that, by many accounts, is considered to require a good deal
strongly denied the allegations and accused the Senator of
of work.
blaming him for environmental nonsense uttered by senior
Last week, some 35 of them, eminences of academe,
Administration officials. But Bromley was extremely vague
science, and medicine, were at it again, ringed around a
about what he has contributed to the environmental educa-
table in Bethesda, quibbling inconclusively over the pro-
tion of George Bush. And he finally conceded that, as White
(Continued on Page 5)
House Science Adviser, he has retreated from the strong
environmental stance that he took as Professor of physics at
In Brief
Yale.
Margot O'Toole will receive a $10,000 award June 25
Gore, who has staked out the environment as his chief
for sounding the alarm in what has come to be known as
Senatorial concern, afforded Bromley only a few of the
the Baltimore Case. The award, established by Michael
rhetorical courtesies that legislators customarily bestow upon
Cavallo, a Cambridge, Mass., businessman, recognizes
senior scientists in the witness chair. Obviously well briefed
people who risk their necks in the public interest, which
for Bromley, who apparently did not anticipate an inquisi-
O'Toole did in 1986 when, as a postdoc, she questioned
tion, Gore brought the hearing to an end by declaring that on
a paper co-authored and stoutly defended by Nobelist
environmental matters, Bromley "has not well served the
David Baltimore. NIH later concluded that Baltimore's
country, the President, or future generations."
co-author had faked data for the paper, as O'Toole had
The hearing drew virtually no press attendance because
charged. Scheduled to speak at the award ceremony:
the only announced topic was the routine confirmation of a
Rep. John Dingell (D-Michigan), who has savaged NIH
noncontroversial nominee, Karl Erb, for an inconspicuous
for initially bungling the inquiry.
position, Associate Director of the White House Office of
University of Michigan President James Duderstadt,
Science and Technology Policy (OSTP), of which Bromley
Chairman of the National Science Board, came out looking
is Director. The proceedings in such cases are usually cere-
foolish in a newspaper exchange with a Congressman who
monial, congratulatory, and brief. But with the approach of
has criticized NSF for its past insistence that the US faces a
the Rio Earth Summit, Gore had an additional item on the
massive "shortfall" of scientists. Writing June 2 in the
agenda: The origin of President Bush's insistence that too
Washington Post, Duderstadt said NSF was being criticized
many important scientific "uncertainties" exist to justify
for "a single preliminary research study performed five
rapid reductions in the emission of greenhouse gases.
years ago." Rep. Howard Wolpe (D-Michigan) replied on
After Bromley introduced Erb to the Commerce, Sci-
June 13 that the study was repeatedly revised between 1987
ence, and Transportation Committee, the nominee was dis-
and 1991, widely distributed to the press and Congress, and
pensed with in a friendly few minutes. Gore then said he
cited more than 50 times in public by former NSF Director
wanted "to take a little time here to look at the larger picture
Erich Bloch.
and examine the role of OSTP within the policymaking
Engineering salaries have failed to match inflation
process." The organization has undergone a revival from
for the fifth straight year, and unemployment among
the neglect of the later Reagan years, Gore said, "But how
engineers is at 4 percent, a record for recent years,
effective has OSTP been? Is science really informing the
according to a nationwide survey by the American Asso-
policy process at the White House? I am not sure that it is,
ciation of Engineering Societies. On the bright side, the
at least not when it comes to global warming," Gore said.
survey found that beginning salaries have perked up,
(Continued on Page 2)
with the median this year at $34,600.
2 -SCIENCE & GOVERNMENT REPORT
© June 15, 1992
Has Bush Ever Had a Briefing on Global Change?
(Continued from Page 1)
these individuals, Watson and Albritton? Recent news ac-
The Senator then proceeded into a lengthy monologue
counts state that the President has never had a scientific
largely directed at the Administration's claims of scientific
briefing on this subject.
uncertainties on global warming. "It often seems that the
Bromley. That, of course, is not true. But he has not
Administration is ignoring the scientific data when it comes
been briefed, to the best of my knowledge, by either Watson
to global climate change," Gore declared. "And if that is
or Albritton.
the case, part of the responsibility is yours," he told Brom-
Gore. Why not? If they are leading the scientific assess-
ley, "because it is your job to bring to the President's
ment for the government, and this is such an important
attention, in clear terms, the scientific advice which should
question, why would they not brief him?
inform his decisions."
Bromley. Well, I think the answer to that, sir, is the
Gore asked Bromley whether he was familiar with the
President's time is extraordinarily valuable and he does not
research of Sherwood Idso, a Phoenix-based US Department
want lengthy, detailed scientific briefings because he does
of Agriculture scientist who has found favor in White House
not have a scientific background himself. And what he
political circles because of his cheerful findings on the
wants is the kind of concentrated overview that he gets from
greenhouse effect. According to Idso, higher agricultural
me and the members of his [President's] Council of Advisors
productivity will be the principal result of a CO2 buildup.
for Science and Technology [PCAST].
The Idso thesis is embodied in a film, The Greening of
Gore. Who has briefed the President on global climate
Planet Earth, which is distributed by the National Coal
change? Who has given the scientific briefing to him?
Association and Western Fuels. Asked by Gore if he had
Bromley. The members, for example, of PCAST who
seen the film, Bromley said he had not, "but I know about
have expertise in this area. Tom Lovejoy, whom I think you
it.'' Gore asked for Bromley's "appraisal of the scientific
know from the Smithsonian Norman Borlaug, the father
merits of this film."
of the Green Revolution Dan Nathans, of course, who has
Bromley sidestepped the role of scientific film reviewer,
[the] Nobel Prize for his work in the stages of recombinant
and asserted that he has never had "any difficulty commu-
DNA technology, is well aware of a lot of this.
nicating with the President." As for Idso's research, Brom-
Gore. They have given the President a briefing on global
ley said it "shows that enhanced concentrations of carbon
climate change?
dioxide can, in fact, under laboratory conditions, cause
Bromley. We have discussed with the President matters
enhanced growth rates in certain plants a species of orange
of global climate change, yes.
plant, orange trees. But I would have to say that this is only
Gore. Has the President ever had a specific scientific
the beginning of a research program that is very important,"
briefing on global climate change?
Bromley added.
Bromley. I have not given him a specific one that was on
Gore responded that Idso's film "has had a big influence
that subject alone. That has certainly been part of our
on views within the Administration," and asked Bromley to
discussion on many occasions. And I am quite confident that
grade the film for scientific accuracy.
Bill Reilly [Administrator of the Environmental Protection
"I am afraid, sir," Bromley replied, "that I would have
Agency] has talked with him on a number of occasions
to say that it oversells and overgeneralizes."
where this has been a significant part of the discussion. But
"Well, the Administration has sponsored showings of
we have never scheduled specifically-today we are going
this film," Gore said. "The Department of Energy and
to meet with the President to talk about the science of global
Commerce sponsored a debut of The Greening of Planet
climate change-no.
Earth. The Secretary of Energy spoke at the event. And
(Continued on Page 3)
again, individuals in the Administration have repeatedly
© 1992, Science & Government Report, Inc.
cited this film as a reference point for their understanding of
the science. Have you done anything to correct the misim-
Editor and Publisher
Associate Publisher
pression within the Administration and potentially within
Daniel S. Greenberg
Wanda J. Reif
the President's mind?" Gore asked.
Circulation Manager
Bromley said the cited cabinet secretaries, and other
Glen D. Grant
department heads, have been "exposed to what I felt was the
Independently published by Science & Government Report, Inc., twice
most up-to-date scientific summaries that I could find, given
monthly, except once each in January, July, August, and September. Annual
subscriptions: Institutions, $358.00 (two years, $610.00). Bulk and individ-
by people like Bob Watson from NASA, Dan Albritton from
ual rates upon request. Editorial offices at 3736 Kanawha St. NW, Washing-
NOAA, people from the general scientific community."
ton, DC 20015. Tel. (202) 244-4135. For subscription service: PO Box
The Science Adviser added that "this particular movie is
6226A, Washington, DC 20015. Tel. 1-800-522-1970; in Washington, DC
785-5054. Reproduction without permission is prohibited. SGR is available
something you will, of course, recognize, as totally out of
on University Microfilms International. Claims for missing back issues will
my control."
be filled without charge if made within six weeks of publication date. ISSN
Gore. Now, has the President himself been briefed by
0048-9581.
© June 15, 1992
SCIENCE & GOVERNMENT REPORT-3
Senator Challenges Bromley on Scientific Data
(Continued from Page 2)
which indicates that "the results from the first runs would
Returning to the Idso film, Gore asked Bromley whether
have to be modified And so that is the uncertainty that I
he knew that the "coal industry financed it, and gave
refer to." He assured Gore that when he gave the speech, he
$250,000 to a company that Dr. Idso set up, and a company
used the "best information available."
of which his wife is President."
Gore. Well, the only person in the scientific community
Bromley repeated he had "never seen the film" and
that my staff and I have been able to find, in the literature or
added, "nor do I intend to."
on the public record, who has ever indicated that the indirect
Gore questioned whether it was desirable to have cabinet
effect of methane on global warming is negative is you
officers sponsoring the film and "individuals within the
Bromley. Senator, I would be incredibly insulted if you
Administration citing it as a reason why we do not really
were, in fact, suggesting that I made up this—
have to worry much about global warming." Charging that
Gore. No, of course not.
Idso, a government employe, "is promoting uncertainty in
Bromley. -for the purposes of the Baltimore meet-
the minds of policymakers so as to allow the continued
ing I told you where I got these numbers.
belching of greenhouse gases at undiminished rates," Gore
Gore. Of course I am not suggesting, in any way, that
said: "That is a little bizarre, is it not?"
you made it up. And please, let me correct your impression
Bromley agreed that "it does sound somewhat bizarre,"
that might even be a possibility. Not at all. But you may
but insisted that "I do not have any personal information on
also-you may take offense at what I am really suggesting,
this." [Concerning Idso, Bromley notified Gore on June 4
and that is that your inclination to emphasize uncertainties in
that "My understanding is that USDA is conducting an
the science of global warming may be leading you into
official inquiry into the circumstances you raised during the
errors, and may be resulting in advice to the President of the
hearing."]
United States on the most important scientific question he
Gore asked Bromley whether he was familiar with a
faces, that leads him to believe that the science of global
report, Global Warming Update, published recently by the
warming is fraught with considerably more uncertainty than
George C. Marshall Institute, a conservative think tank in
the scientific community believes it is.
Washington, DC, discounting the dangers of global warm-
Referring to the Baltimore speech, Gore asked Bromley
ing. Bromley replied that the report "has never been peer-
to explain his assertion that sulfur dioxide reductions man-
reviewed," and added that "in this particular case, the data
dated in 1990 by amendments to the Clear Air Act would
may have been used selectively."
help reduce CO2 emissions. How? the Senator asked.
Then why, Gore asked, is the Marshall report "repeat-
Bromley. By requiring more efficient operation of the
edly referred to by important members of the Administration
plant.
as a source for their belief that uncertainty predominates,
Gore. Such as-by what technique?
and that we do not yet know enough to take the kind of action
Bromley. I do not know the details, sir. I would be happy
that was urged upon us in the recent negotiations on a
to get them for you.
climate-change treaty?"
Gore. Well, you made an assertion in a public-policy
Bromley responded that it "is unfair to claim that the
forum as the President's Science Adviser, in a highly
Administration is using this Marshall report. Members may.
charged context, where decisions are going [to be made]
I cannot control that."
about proposed actions to combat global warming. And you
Gore referred to a speech Bromley gave last December in
are making the assertion that the Clean Air Act amendments
Baltimore to an international meeting of chemists, in which,
have already done something about global warming. And I
the Senator charged, Bromley exaggerated the uncertainties
now ask you exactly how does that work and you say you do
of global-change research. In the speech, Gore continued,
not know.
"youstated that 'preliminary work suggests that the second-
Bromley. I am not prepared to detail the exact mecha-
and third-order processes involving methane as a green-
nisms done on the utility plant. But I will get them for you.
house gas may be of substantial importance and of opposite
Gore. Well, what makes you think there are some?
sign to the first-order processes.'
Bromley. Because people I trust tell me.
Gore asked, "Now what evidence did you have at the
Gore. Who?
time to support that statement?"
Bromley. The people who brief me on the specific
Bromley replied that in preparing the speech he was
activities in the Clean Air legislation.
briefed by Watson of NASA and Albritton of NOAA, but
Gore. Are you familiar that scrubbers, the technology of
"subsequently, it has turned out that the statements that
choice to limit sulfur dioxide, typically result in a 4-percent
were made during that briefing were more precise than they
increase in CO2 for each BTU of energy produced?
perhaps should have been. And that there is more uncer-
Bromley. No, I was not aware of that.
tainty, in fact, than was indicated." Bromley added that the
Gore. That is a fact. If you wish to check it and correct
subject is under study with greater computational power,
(Continued on Page 4)
4 -SCIENCE & GOVERNMENT REPORT
© June 15, 1992
Life Was Much Simpler in Academe, Bromley Says
(Continued from Page 3)
gave in 1988, a year before his White House appointment,
the statement for the record, you are certainly welcome to do
Gore noted that you said the consequences for our descen-
so
[Bromley subsequently sent a memo to Gore citing
dants may well be catastrophic. We have no time to waste."
various provisions of the Clean Air Act that he said would
Asked whether he still held those views, Bromley replied
reduce CO2 emissions.]
that his 1988 expressions "are perhaps a little more extreme
Noting that the White House had opposed a Clean Air
than they are now."
amendment concerning CO2 that he had offered, Gore said:
Gore noted that in the same speech, Bromley stated that
"So, when I hear statements by the President's Science
"it is essential for us to realize that we who use a dispropor-
Adviser and others prominent in the Administration that the
tionate share of the planet's energy must take the lead in
Clean Air Act constitutes a response to global warming, I am
reducing utilization of fossil fuels."
puzzled."
Gore. Do you still believe that is the appropriate re-
Gore then brought up the name of F. Sherwood Rowland,
sponse?
Professor of Chemistry, UC Irvine. "He is a scientist of
Bromley. Life is much simpler when viewed from an
some renown in the field of global climate change research.
academic environment than when one recognizes all the
Would you agree?" the Senator asked.
aspects of the situation
Bromley. To some degree.
As the hearing approached a conclusion, Gore spoke a
Gore. Do you wish to elaborate?
few words of praise for Bromley, telling him that "I know of
Bromley. No.
so many instances where you have done wonderful and
Gore. He was among those who heard your speech in
valuable work on behalf of this country and generations to
Baltimore and was quoted in the Baltimore Sun as saying
come."
that he did not "recall in 17 years of science hearing a talk
But he capped the proceedings with a bitter assessment of
with so many errors." He said that it was his opinion that
the performance of a man who holds a noble conception of
you, Dr. Bromley, were "out of touch with the scientific
the role of Presidential science advice. Telling Bromley that
community" and that "President Bush is receiving abysmal
his environmental advice "has not well served the country,
scientific advice." Do you question Dr. Rowland's exper-
the President, or future generations," Gore added:
tise on the science of global climate change?
"I think it has served the President's short-term political
Bromley. He is entitled to his opinion. But I think I
needs by providing him some comfort that there is so much
should also tell you that following that statement by Dr.
uncertainty surrounding the science of global warming that
Rowland at Baltimore, he was taken aside by a number of
he need not feel the same sense of urgency that every other
senior people there. And I think perhaps he would, at this
leader of an industrial nation seems to feel "-DSG
point, say that he regretted his statements.
Gore. That is not the impression I have received.
Gore next brought up the Intergovernmental Panel on
New Stirrings in Gallo Case
Climate Change (IPCC), noting that it had reported an
The investigation of Robert Gallo has started to sizzle
increase in greenhouse-gas emissions and that "These in-
following SGR's publication June 1 of a devastating rebuttal
creases will enhance the greenhouse effect, resulting, on
of an NIH report that exonerated the renowned researcher of
average, in an additional warming of the earth's surface."
scientific misconduct associated with identification of the
Asked whether he agrees, Bromley replied, "It is not a
AIDS virus.
question of agreeing or disagreeing The context is that we
SGR was bound by a vow of silence as to the origin of the
have not seen any unambiguous signal for greenhouse warm-
rebuttal, but the Chicago Tribune reported on June 14 that it
ing that we can attribute to carbon dioxide in the atmos-
was prepared "with the assistance of Suzanne Hadley,"
phere Eventually we will see one if we keep putting
who was the chief investigator of the case at NIH. Hadley
carbon dioxide into the atmosphere."
resigned from the investigation last year after NIH Director
Noting that the IPCC report was produced over three
Bernadine Healy demanded that she soften some of her
years by "300 of the leading climate-change researchers in
comments about Gallo.
the world," Gore asserted that Bromley's skepticism "may
Hadley has since been on detail to the House subcommit-
be a possible explanation for why the position of the Presi-
tee chaired by Rep. John Dingell (D-Michigan), a longtime
dent of the United States is at odds with the position of every
critic of NIH's handling of misconduct charges. Following
other leader of every other industrial country in the world.
publication of the SGR report, the Department of Health and
He may not be getting the same advice that the world
Human Services sent Dingell's staff 32 detailed questions
scientific community is managing to filter through to all of
concerning the doubts raised about the exoneration of Gallo.
the other leaders of the world. You are in charge of that
Last week, NIH announced that Gallo would meet with
filter," the Senator told Bromley.
the press on June 24 to answer written questions submitted
Referring to a speech on global warming that Bromley
in advance.