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O
glohal Charge February Lange/Cawley) [IPCC.DOC] 3:45 4,
1989
P.M.
PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS: INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY
MONDAY, FEBRUARY 5, 1990
10:15 A.M.
Thank you, Dr. Bolin [Bo-leen]. Professor Obasi. Dr.
Tolba. Delegates of the World Meteorological Organization, and
the United Nations Environment Program. Let me commend all of
you, for coming together to examine an issue of such great
importance. The recommendations this distinguished organization
makes can have a profound effect on the world's environmental and
economic policy.
By being here today, I hope to underscore concern -- my
country's, and my own -- about environmental stewardship; and to
reaffirm our commitment to finding responsible solutions. It is
both an honor and a pleasure to be the first American President
to speak to this organization, as its work takes shape.
You are called upon to develop recommendations which strike
a difficult yet critical international bargain: a convergence
between global environmental policy, and global economic policy.
A bargain where both perspectives benefit -- and neither is
compromised.
As experts, you understand that economic growth and
environmental integrity are not contradictory priorities. One
reinforces and complements the other. Each, a partner. Both are
crucial.
2
A sound environment is the basis for the continuity and
quality of human life and enterprise. Clearly, strong economies
allow nations to fulfill the obligations of environmental
stewardship. Where there is economic strength, such protection
is possible. But where there is poverty, the competition for
resources gets tougher. Stewardship suffers.
For all of these reasons, I sincerely believe we must do
everything in our power to promote global cooperation: For
environmental protection and economic growth. For intelligent
management of our natural resources and efficient use of our
industrial capacity. And above all, for sustainable and
environmentally sensitive development -- around the world.
The United States is strongly committed to the I.P.C.C.
process of international cooperation on global climate change.
We consider it vital, that the community of nations be drawn
together -- in an orderly, disciplined, rational way -- to review
the history of our global environment, to assess the potential
for future climate change, and to develop effective programs.
The state of the science; the social and economic impacts;
and the appropriate strategies -- all are crucial components to a
global resolution. The stakes here are very high; the
consequences, very significant.
The United States remains committed to aggressive and
thoughtful action on environmental issues. Last week, in my
State of the Union address, I spoke of stewardship: because I
3
believe it's something we owe ourselves, our children and their
children.
So we are renewing the ethic of stewardship in our
domestic programs. In our work to forge international
agreements. In our assistance to developing and East Bloc
nations. And here, by chairing the Response Strategies Working
Group.
I have just submitted a budget to our Congress for fiscal
1991. It includes over $2 billion in new spending to protect the
environment. And, underscoring our commitment to your efforts, I
am pleased to note that funding for the U.S. Global Change
Research Program will increase by nearly 60 percent, to over one
billion dollars.
That commitment, by far the largest ever made by any nation,
reflects our determination to improve our understanding of the
science of climate change.
We are working with our neighbors around the world to
enhance global monitoring and data management, improve analysis,
reduce the uncertainty of predictive models, and conduct regular
reassessments of the state of the science.
Our program allows NASA, her sister agencies, and all our
international partners, to move forward with the "Mission to
Planet Earth." That will initiate the U.S. Earth Observing
System, in cooperation with Europe and Japan, to advance the
state of knowledge about the planet we share.
4
Furthermore, even as we wait for the benefits of this
research, the United States has already taken many steps in our
country that bring both economic and environmental benefits.
Steps that make sense on their own merits in terms of
responsibility and efficiency, which help reduce emissions of
CFC's, carbon dioxide, and other pollutants now entering the
atmosphere. Let me outline them very briefly:
We are pursuing new technology development that will
increase the efficiency of our energy use, and thus reduce total
emissions.
We're crafting a revised Clean Air Act with incentives for
our private sector to find creative, market-driven solutions to
enhance air quality.
We've launched a major reforestation initiative to plant a
billion trees a year on private land across America.
And we're working out a comprehensive review and revision of
our National Energy Strategy, with initiatives to increase energy
efficiency and the use of renewable sources. These efforts,
already underway, are the heart of a $336 million Department of
Energy program, and are expected to produce energy savings
through the year 2000 of over $30 billion -- while achieving
significant pollution reduction. Quite a return on investment.
We're also working through diplomatic channels with our
colleagues in other countries, and through innovative measures
like debt-for-nature swaps, to do more than simply reduce global
5
deforestation. We hope to reverse it -- not unilaterally, but by
working with our international neighbors.
The economics of our response strategies to climate change
are getting intensive study in America. We are developing real
data on the costs of various strategies, assessing new measures,
and encouraging other nations to follow suit. And we look
forward to sharing this knowledge and technical support with our
international colleagues.
As we work to create policy and agreements on action, we
want to encourage the most creative, effective approaches.
Wherever possible, we believe that market mechanisms should be
applied -- and that our policies must be consistent with economic
growth and free market principles in all countries. Our
development efforts and our dialogue can help us reach effective
and acceptable solutions.
Last December at Malta, in my meeting with President
Gorbachev, I proposed that the United States offer a venue for
the first negotiating session for a framework convention, once
the I.P.C.C. completes its work. I reiterate that invitation
here, and look forward to your cooperation in that agenda.
We all know that human activities are changing the
atmosphere in unexpected and unprecedented ways. Much remains to
be done. Many questions remain to be answered. Together, we
have a responsibility to ourselves and the generations to come,
to fulfill our stewardship obligations. But that responsibility
demands that we do it right.
6
We acknowledge a broad spectrum of views on these issues,
but our respect for a diversity of perspective does not diminish
our recognition of our obligation -- or soften our will to
produce policies that work. Some may be tempted to exploit
legitimate concerns for political positioning. Our
responsibility is to maintain the quality of our approach, our
commitment to sound science, and an open mind to policy options.
So the United States will continue its efforts to improve
our understanding of climate change -- to seek hard data,
accurate models, and new ways to improve the science -- and
determine how best to meet these challenges. Where politics and
opinion have outpaced the science, we are accelerating our
support of the technology to bridge that gap. And we are
committed to coming together periodically, for international
assessments of where we stand.
Therefore, this spring, the United States will host a White
House conference on science and economic research on the
environment -- convening top officials from a representative
group of nations, to bring together the three essential
disciplines: science, economics, and ecology. They will share
their knowledge, assumptions, and state-of-the-art research
models, to outline our understanding and help focus our efforts.
I look forward to participating in this seminar, and to learning
from its deliberations.
Our goal continues to be matching policy commitments to
emerging scientific knowledge -- and a reconciling of
7
environmental protection to the continued benefits of economic
development. And as Secretary Baker observed a year ago,
whatever global solutions to climate change are considered, they
should be as specific and as cost-effective as they can possibly
be.
If we hope to promote environmental protection and economic
growth around the world, it will be important not to work in
conflict, but with our industrial sectors. That will mean moving
beyond the practice of command, control, and compliance -- toward
a new kind of environmental cooperation -- and toward an emphasis
on pollution prevention, rather than mere mitigation and
litigation. Many of our industries, in fact, are already
providing crucial research and solutions.
One corporation, for example, started an in-house program
called Pollution Prevention Pays, that has saved the company well
over half a billion dollars since 1975 -- and prevented 112,000
tons of air pollutants, 15,000 tons of water pollutants, and
almost 400,000 tons of sludge and solid waste from being released
into the environment. They've done it by rewarding employees for
coming up with the ideas. And they have clearly demonstrated the
benefits of doing it right.
Where developing nations are concerned, some argue we'll
have to abandon the free-market principles of prosperous
economies. In fact, we think it's all the more crucial in the
developing countries, to harness incentives of the free
enterprise system, in the service of the environment.
8
I believe we should make use of what we know. We know that
the future of the earth must not be compromised. We bear a
sacred trust in our tenancy here -- and a covenant with those
most precious to us: our children, and theirs. We also
understand the efficiency of incentives -- and that well-informed
free markets yield the most creative solutions. We must now
apply the wisdom of that system, the power of those forces, in
defense of the environment we cherish.
Working together, with good faith and earnest dialogue, I
believe we can reconcile vitality with environmental protection.
Let me commend you on your outstanding work -- and wish you all
deliberate speed in your efforts to address a very difficult, but
very important, human concern.
Thank you -- and God bless you.
# # #
EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
STATES GREAT THE PRESIDENT SERIS UNITED il
COUNCIL ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20500
o
February 1, 1990
Michael R. Deland
(202) 395-5080
Chairman
MEMORANDUM TO: CHRISS WINSTON
FROM:
MICHAEL DELAND
SUBJECT:
IPCC SPEECH -- MONDAY, FEBRUARY 5, 1990
As we discussed, I have some policy-oriented concerns with the
speech as currently drafted.
First, given that it is an IPCC meeting which the President is
addressing, I think it essential that he reiterate the offer he
announced in Malta with Gorbachev, namely to host the first
negotiation session of the Framework Convention. Failure to make
such mention would be read as a retreat by the President before
the very group whose credibility we have a stake in bolstering.
Secondly, there is substantial confusion in the international
community as to the purpose of the spring "White House Conference
on Science and Economic Research on the Environment" which the
President also announced at Malta. I think this would be an
ideal opportunity to articulate the intended results of the
conference.
Further, by not mentioning the "stabilization of greenhouse
gases" goal as set forth at Noordwijk, we could be criticized as
backing away from that position.
Finally, given the sophistication of the audience and that many
have been devoting much of their professional lives to these
issues, we need to be careful not to appear either arrogant or
condescending.
I have attached hurried margin comments on particular wording.
One phrase that leaps out is the characterization "environmental
cold war" on page one. That strikes me as sending precisely the
wrong signal since the U.S. and U.S.S.R., as well as many other
nations, have been cooperating on environmental issues for a
number of years.
I'll be in the office on Friday should you wish to discuss this
further.
cc: Dr. Allan Bromley
Dr. Michael Boskin
Recycled Paper
February 1, 1990
FROM: Mike Deland
TO: Chriss Winston
RE: IPCC SPEECH
Here is a step-by-step walk-through of my handwritten notes in
the margins of Monday's draft speech.
Page One:
Either delete "logical" and don't qualify "division" OR state it
more clearly by substituting "illogical" -- that, in fact, is
what we mean.
Delete "cold war." We have been working together for years on
environmental issues with much success. It is an unnecessary and
inaccurate negative assessment of the situation.
Page Two:
no comments
Page Three:
I don't believe there exists a scientific link between polar ice
sheets and sea ice; one is on land, the other on ocean. One
would be "walking on thin ice" to suggest that this comparison
offers evidence either way on the global warming question.
The Blake quote is unnecessarily offensive. Those in the
audience may not be "passionate" but they are dedicated. The
quote is not worth the risk of insulting the group.
"Media-driven emotion" is a bit strong. Something along the
lines of "The politics are outstripping the science" might be
better.
-2-
Page Four:
The function of such models is to help us predict the future.
The point to be made here is that while models can be useful in
making prediction, they are limited in the degree of certainty
they can provide.
The line about the U.S. "continues to lead the world" sounds
arrogant coming from the President. It is something that I and
others say on his behalf all the time.
The language at the bottom of the page about a "reasoned middle
ground" is on target, but is begging for an example. This would
be a good place to insert Secretary Baker's language on global
climate change from his maiden speech one year ago.
Page Five:
Can we re-phrase "more than any other country" while still taking
credit?
Page Six:
Delete "environmental cold war" for same reasons as on page one.
Page Seven:
"Pollution prevention" is a concept that the President supports
and has spoken about before. It could be mentioned as a concrete
example of the "new kind of environmental cooperation" that is
mentioned here.
Document No. 109727SS
WHITE HOUSE STAFFING MEMORANDUM
DATE:
2/1/90
ACTION/CONCURRENCE/COMMENT DUE BY: 2/1/90 5:00 PM
SUBJECT:
PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS: INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
ACTION FYI
ACTION FYI
VICE PRESIDENT
MCCLURE
SUNUNU
NEWMAN
SCOWCROFT
PORTER
DARMAN
ROGICH
BATES
UNTERMEYER
CARD
ROGERS
CICCONI
WINSTON
DEMAREST
PINKERTON
FITZWATER
DELAND
GRAY
BROMLEY
HAGIN
REMARKS:
Please forward any comments directly to Chriss Winston, Rm. 122,
x2930, no later than 5:00 PM TODAY, Tuesday, February 1, with a
copy to my office. Thank you.
RESPONSE:
James W. Cicconi
Assistant to the President
and Deputy to the Chief of Staff
Ext. 2702
(Lange/Cawley)
February 1, 1989
1990 JAN 32 Fill !2: 04
10:45 A.M.
[IPCC.DOC]
PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS: INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY
MONDAY, FEBRUARY 5, 1990
10:15 A.M.
Thank you, Dr. Bolin [Bo-leen]. Professor Obasi. Dr.
Tolba. Delegates of the World Meteorological Congress, and the
United Nations Environment Program. Let me thank and
congratulate all of you, for taking on an issue of such great
importance. The decisions this organization makes will have a
profound effect on the world's environmental and economic policy.
In the post-war era, we've produced the most technologically
advanced creations of man. We've also gained new understanding
-- though still incomplete -- of the most ecologically fragile
creations of nature.
But unfortunately, somewhere along the way, we picked up a
bias, that has harmed both man and nature: a mistaken belief
that there is a divergence of interests -- a logical division --
between the natural world and we who inhabit it.
illogical
Nothing could be further from the truth -- or more central
to the work of this Panel. You are called upon to strike an
unprecedented international bargain: a convergence between
global environmental policy, and global economic policy, where
both sides benefit -- and neither is compromised.
You are called upon to end the environmental cold war.
Not colo
have works been Joselh
for
year
2
This will be possible only if we understand that economic
growth and environmental integrity are not contradictory
priorities. One reinforces and complements the other.
A sound environment is the basis for the continuity and
quality of human life and enterprise. And strong economies allow
nations to fulfill the obligations of environmental stewardship.
Where there is economic strength, such stewardship is considered
a necessity. But where there is poverty, it is too often a
luxury.
For that reason, I believe we must usher in a new era of
global cooperation: for environmental protection and economic
growth. For intelligent management of industrial and natural
resources. Above all, for sustainable development -- around the
world.
The United States believes the I.P.C.C. is the best forum to
develop policy on global climate change. We're committed to
international cooperation on this issue. And we consider it
vital, that the community of nations is drawn together -- in an
ordered, rational way -- to assess the potential for climate
change.
The state of the science; the social and economic impacts;
and the right response strategies: all are crucial components to
a global resolution. The stakes here are very high.
There is no question that human activities are changing the
atmosphere in unexpected and unprecedented ways. Since the mid-
3
1800s, the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has gone up
by 25 percent.
What we don't yet understand is the extent of the
alterations we've brought about -- and how they're linked to a
significant, imminent climate change.
Last fall, many clear thinkers -- among them, world leaders
one one
were citing a significant thinning of sea ice at the poles as
Sea
evidence that global warming had arrived. Recent observations
gift
Land
show that the polar ice sheets are not melting, they're growing
in size.
not
Thank
I'm not prepared -- academically, or otherwise -- to draw
conclusions. But I have noticed something about the scientists
drawing the conclusions.
Those who see climate change as a clear and present danger
represent one distinct minority. Those who discount it
completely, represent another minority. But many scientists --
if not most -- are not ready to claim that the extent of global
climate change can now be reliably detected -- or predicted.
That may be to their credit.
When he was observing the fervor of the French Revolution,
the English poet William Blake wrote
"The best lack all
conviction, while the worst are filled with passionate
auduni quite needed
intensity."
Here, too, we are called upon for action based on
observation -- not media-driven emotion, or the politics of
not
-apocalypse. The decisions being made are too important to be
may
compromised intellectually -- or polarized politically.
he is
indedicated it want don't to offend
able Politing sting an An Science be outshinging better might
4
Questions remain: about the reflective effects of cloud
cover, the cooling effects and CO2 absorption of oceans, and
other sinks and feedback mechanisms we don't yet understand.
Those questions, among others, suggest that we should attend to
what is known about climate change -- and work to know more.
Current computer models are marvels of mathematics. Still,
they cannot yet be said to represent reality -- and cannot be
models
expected to predict the future. Above all, responsible policy
are
cannot rest on the shifting sands of hypothesis and a chaos of
to
conjecture
In the search for answers, the United States continues to
lead the world. We're seeking hard data and new ways to improve
sounds
the science. Because what science now knows with confidence,
policy-makers can't use. And what policy-makers need to make
Something
brom
Pres
decisions, science doesn't yet know.
on
In spite of this uncertainty, some suggest we should act
now, on the chance that significant climate change becomes
certain. Others point to the opposite edge of that sword: any
his with health
meaningful preemptive policies would bring only the certainty of
the
prohibitive expense; conflict with Third World development; and
declining standards of living, worldwide.
I believe we can do better. There is a reasoned middle
ground, that matches policy to emerging scientific knowledge --
and reconciles environmental protection to economic development.
With every word, with every decision made here, we're also
making a committment that is profoundly personal. I think all of
Bohn his maiden language one yr. speech ago
for
Sec.
?
5
us understand, deep inside, how the actions we take now speak to
the future.
Last week, in my State of the Union address, I spoke of
stewardship. I believe it's something we owe our children and
grandchildren -- because the earth we stand upon is only
borrowed, never owned.
So the United States remains committed to a leadership role
on environmental issues. In our domestic programs. Our work to
forge international agreements. Our assistance to developing and
East Bloc nations. And here, by leading the Response Strategies
Working Group.
we are we
Overall, we're already doing more than any other country to
can
understand and address global warming -- in terms of financial
1
and human resources, by more than a factor of ten.
I just proposed a budget to our Congress for fiscal 1991
Bs
credit
that devotes a total of over [$70] billion to environment-related
work. Funding for the U.S. Global Change Research Program will
increase by nearly 60 percent, to over $1 billion.
That will allow NASA to move forward with its "Mission to
Planet Earth" -- and will fund the launch of the first U.S. Earth
Observing System, to advance the state of knowledge about the
planet we share.
We've already taken many steps that bring major benefits in
their own right. Steps that make sense on their own merits, and
that will also help reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other
6
gases now building up in the atmosphere. Let me outline them
very briefly:
We want to stabilize -- and reduce wherever we can -- both
our energy consumption and our total emissions. So we're
pursuing new technology development. Creating a revised Clean
Air Act with incentives for industry to find creative, market-
driven solutions. Working out a comprehensive review and
revision of our National Energy Strategy. And launching a major
reforestation initiative to plant a billion trees a year on
private land across America.
We're also working through diplomatic channels, and through
innovative measures like debt-for-nature swaps, to do more than
simply reduce global deforestation. We hope to reverse it.
The economics of our response strategies to climate change
are getting intensive study. We intend to develop real data on
the costs of various response strategies, assess new measures,
and challenge other nations to follow suit. And we will offer
technical support to those who need it.
As we work to create policy to manage CO2 and other
emissions, we want to encourage the most innovative responses.
Wherever possible, we believe that market mechanisms should be
applied -- and that policy must be consistent with economic
growth and free market principles in all countries. But we will
break the hold of the environmental cold war only through
dialogue -- through a shared commitment to consensus.
Change phrase
7
If we hope to promote environmental protection and economic
growth around the world, it will be important to work with, not
against industry. That will mean moving beyond the tradition of
command, control, and compliance -- toward a new kind of
is Pottition prevention
environmental cooperation Many industries, in fact, are already
providing crucial research and solutions. And a few are already
ahead of us.
One power-plant management firm, just across the river in
Virginia, donated $2 million in 1988 for tree planting in
Guatemala -- to compensate for a coal-fired plant it was building
in Connecticut. And the company expects to couple tree-planting
programs with all of the new power plants now on its drawing
boards.
Where developing nations are concerned, some suggest we'll
have to abandon the laissez-faire, free-market principles that
allowed the industrial world to prosper. In fact, we think it's
all the more crucial, in the developing countries, to apply the
principles of the free market in the service of the environment.
To the extent we can accelerate the advancement of these
nations, it will take less energy for them to produce wealth: in
modern industrial countries, energy use per unit of G.N.P. has
declined over time -- steadily, and dramatically.
So we need to work with the developing nations: Applying
the power of the marketplace, considering technology transfer,
and encouraging industry to assist developing nations in making
quantum leaps in technologies. That will allow developing
8
nations to grow more quickly and easily . -- and may help them
avoid making the environmental mistakes we older nations have
made.
As I said a moment ago, I believe we should make use of what
we know. We know that the future of the earth cannot be
compromised. We bear a sacred trust in our tenancy here -- and a
covenant with those most precious to us: our children, and
theirs.
We also know of the efficiency of economic incentive -- and
that free markets yield the most creative solutions. We must now
apply the wisdom of the market, in defense of the environment we
share. It is time to heal this false schism. It is time to put
an end to the environmental cold war.
Working together, with good faith and earnest dialogue, I
believe it can be done. But more important: We know it must be
done.
Thank you -- and God bless you.
# # #
JAN 18 1990
MEMORANDUM
TO:
Dr. D. Allan Bromley
Assistant to the President
FROM:
Admiral James D. Watkins D. wark.
Secretary of Energy
Administrator, Environmental JoKPoly Protection Agency
William K. Reilly
SUBJECT: Presidential Speech to the IPCC
The meeting of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change during the first
week of February offers the President an important opportunity to reaffirm his
leadership on international environmental issues. Attached is the outline of a speech
that he might give (Tab A).
We believe that it is a positive statement of: (1) his concern for the
environment in general and about global warming in particular, (2) his commitment to
lead international efforts in these areas, (3) the significant U.S. efforts to fulfill this
commitment and (4) U.S. support for the IPCC as the proper forum for addressing the
climate change issue. We also believe that the statement is fully consistent with
existing Administration policy.
Also attached is an issue paper outlining options for carrying forward and
expanding in the IPCC the cost and economic impact analysis of measures to limit
greenhouse gas emissions (TAB B). Although not linked to the speech, the issue needs
to be carefully considered. Such work must be continued in the IPCC or the
international debate will continue to be based more on bold rhetoric than solid
information.
We have shared this outline with the State Department and believe it is, in
essence, supported by them. We would like to explore these ideas with you and our
colleagues in the rest of the Administration. To this end, we would appreciate your
circulating these documents in preparation for a discussion which you might lead. We
would welcome your advice on how to move the inter-agency review process forward
expeditiously given that the date of the speech is fast approaching.
Attachments
cc: Frederick M. Bernthal, Assistant Secretary,
Oceans & International Environmental & Scientific Affairs Bureau,
Department of State
TAB A
Proposal for Presidential Speech
before the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Control (IPCC)
1.
General statement of commitment to and concern for the
global environment and economic development.
-- Reiterate determination that the President will take
active role in addressing concern about global climate
change.
-- Reiterate Secretary Baker's approach (spelled out in
January 1989).
-- Reiterate Noordwijk commitment to greenhouse gas
stabilization as soon as possible, consistent with the
requirement for global economic growth that can enhance
the quality of life for people everywhere.
-- Stress strong U.S. commitment to environment; e.g.,
domestic programs, leadership in forging international
agreements on environment, assistance to and
cooperative efforts with developing countries and
current or former centrally planned economies.
2.
U.S. Supports the IPCC Process
-- Stress need for international cooperation.
-- Congratulations to IPCC sponsors, the United Nations
Environment Program (UNEP), the World Meteorological
Organization (WMO) and to Dr. Bolin of Sweden, IPCC
Chairman.
-- Establishment of the IPCC has filled the need for an
orderly, intergovernmental process to assess scientific
understanding, evaluate potential impacts and develop
appropriate response options.
-- Welcome IPCC reports due in August.
-- U.S. is committed to playing a leadership role through
our chairmanship of the Response Strategies Working
Group (RWSG) and supporting IPCC as best forum for
global climate change policy development.
-- Support for UK proposal at UN to continue IPCC.
3.
Past and Ongoing U.S. Contributions and Views on Key Issues
of Convention and Emissions Limiting Agreements
-- Science
O
U.S. budget is the largest in the world and is
rising, nearly $500 million in FY 1990 and to
increase to almost $1 billion in FY 1991.
O
Importance of all countries, no matter what their
level of development or economic system,
contributing to understanding of the science.
This cooperation needs to take several forms:
-
cooperation in assessment of state of the
science; and
-
cooperation in monitoring and analysis of
climate change.
O
Periodic international reassessment of the science
at fixed intervals to aid in our decision making.
--
Technology Development
O
U.S. has active technology development programs to
improve the efficiency of both supply and demand
side technologies, and reduce greenhouse gas
emissions.
-
More efficient fossil fuel generation
technologies.
1
-
Renewable and energy efficiency technology
initiative.
-
Conservation technology: end-use efficiency.
-
Nuclear: new generation with enhanced safety
features under development.
O
Any framework convention should provide for
regular assessments of the state of technology
development to determine the availability and cost
of technologies.
2
-- U.S. is sensitive to the need for technology transfer
to other countries.
Clean coal, renewable, conservation, end-use
services for technology transfer, and nuclear.
A.I.D. appropriation bill.
EPA/Peace Corps agreement.
Change in World Bank policy.
EPA's IETTAB and DOE's CORECT program to examine
technology transfer.
Policy aid package.
--
Economics
Follow-up on Administration commitment to develop
real data on costs of various response strategies
and assess new response measures.
Challenge others to do the same.
O
Offer technical support to those who need it.
-- Policy
O
President should encourage consideration of truly
innovative responses including:
-
comprehensive approach: all major greenhouse
gases are included; and
-
trading of emission permits.
President should define general criteria for
future agreements to limit greenhouse gas
emissions:
-
market mechanisms such as "integrated
resource" planning and consistency with
economic growth in all countries; and
3
-
need to work with industry to ensure that
response actions do not adversely affect
economic growth around the world.
--
U.S. Clean Air Act Legislation
O
Encourages emissions trading.
O
Use of efficiency energy supplies; e.g., new clean
coal technology and conservation technologies.
--
National Energy Strategy
Comprehensive blueprint for addressing future
energy needs with consideration to climate change
and other environmental issues.
O
As first step, take those steps which contribute
to other goals, but also reduce greenhouse gas
emissions; e.g., clean coal technology, DOE
conservation programs.
---
Energy efficiency programs: lighting, appliance
efficiency standards, model building codes, industrial
process improvement, encouraging utilities to provide
the service of electricity demand reduction,
transportation research and development, etc.
--
Alternative energy sources are being developed.
O
Renewables: hydro, solar, biomass, geothermal.
O
Nuclear: new reactor design.
--
Reforestation: Trees for U.S.
--
Phase-out of CFCs by 2000 providing safe substitutes
are available.
O
U.S. contribution to: development of safe
substitutes, assessments of needs by other
countries.
4.
Reiterate Malta Offer to Host Convention Negotiations when
IPCC is Ready
--
Express commitment to finding global solutions.
4
--
Demonstrate U.S. willingness to facilitate the process.
--
To further the debate, U.S. will host international
environmental meeting composed of senior science,
economics and environmental officials from all nations.
5
TAB B
Issue: How to carry forward and expand in the IPCC the cost and
economic impact analysis of measures to limit greenhouse gas
emissions?
Discussion: The IPCC's Response Strategies Working Group (RSWG)
must conclude its work in the next couple of months for its
report to be written on schedule. Consequently much of the cost
and economic analysis that is beginning to emerge will not be
included in the report. Without an ongoing analytical effort,
the international discussion of emission targets and timetables
will be dominated by the countries who are prepared to make
substantial political commitments without much information on how
they will fulfill those commitments.
To move the debate over commitments to limit greenhouse gas
emissions away from bold rhetoric to a realistic assessment of
what is possible over different timeframes, the IPCC's work on
cost and economic impact analysis must be continued and expanded.
Furthermore, because targets and timetables, especially for CO₂
are likely to be a major focus of attention at the fourth IPCC
plenary next August and at the Second World Climate Conference
(SWCC) next October-November, a means must be found for an
ongoing effort over the next 5-7 months.
There are three major options for proceeding. The first is
to request individual countries such as the U.S., Japan and the
FRG to conduct studies and continue to provide results to the
IPCC even after the conclusion of the RSWG's report. A second is
to instruct the RSWG's Energy and Industry Subgroup (EIS) led by
Japan to continue its analyses beyond the Spring and prepare a
supplemental report. The third is for the U.S. to offer to lead,
under the auspices of the RSWG and perhaps in collaboration with
EIS, a special effort and produce a supplemental report in time
for the fourth IPCC plenary. The latter option might entail a
significant commitment of resources but may be most likely to
result in substantive output. The latter option also offers the
possibility of bringing a number of developing countries more
fully into the process, because of a cooperative project already
underway in ten developing countries.
Position: The U.S. should promote an ongoing effort to analyze
the costs and economic impacts of a variety of targets and
timetables for limiting greenhouse gas emissions. This should
include the production of a supplemental report for consideration
by the fourth IPCC plenary. The U.S. should favor a leadership
role for EIS but be prepared to offer to lead the effort if
discussions at the February IPCC meeting suggest it would be
necessary to ensure meaningful output.
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NM as Document No.
109727SS
WHITE HOUSE STAFFING MEMORANDUM
DATE:
2/1/90
ACTION/CONCURRENCE/COMMENT DUE BY: 2/1/90 5:00 PM
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS: INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
ACTION FYI
ACTION FYI
VICE PRESIDENT
MCCLURE
SUNUNU
NEWMAN
SCOWCROFT
PORTER
DARMAN
ROGICH
BATES
UNTERMEYER
CARD
ROGERS
CICCONI
WINSTON
DEMAREST
PINKERTON
FITZWATER
DELAND
GRAY
BROMLEY
HAGIN
REMARKS:
Please forward any comments directly to Chriss Winston, Rm. 122,
x2930, no later than 5:00 PM TODAY, Tuesday, February 1, with a
copy to my office. Thank you.
RESPONSE:
Please memo comments intent
D. Allan Bromley
James W. Cicconi
Director, OSTP
Assistant to the President
and Deputy to the Chief of Staff
Ext. 2702
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GENERAL POINTS
ON THE PRESIDENT'S IPCC REMARKS
1.
This is a unique opportunity for the President to
establish clearly the continuity, direction and
strength of the U.S. program relating to climate
change. the Watkins-Reilly memo emphasized this; the
DPC Working Group endorsed it, but this draft does not
take adequate advantage of this opportunity for the
President to reaffirm U.S. leadership in addressing
climate change on the basis of sound science and sound
economics, as well as concrete actions already taken.
2.
The President should use the occasion of this talk to
build upon his Malta announcement and discussion with
President Gorbachev and now announce that he is
inviting a small but representative cross-section of
the world's most senior science, economics and
environmental officials to participate in a seminar in
Washington April 18-19, where he intends to participate
personally in the discussions and educate himself on
these matters. In hosting this seminar, it is his
intention to improve the quality and understanding of
the analytic tools and data required to address the
problems of climate change; to sensitize the science,
economics and environmental research communities to
each other's activities, uncertainties and problem
areas; and to at least begin developing an
international research plan that would draw upon the
experience, expertise and data of all the participating
countries in addressing the gaps and uncertainties
remaining in our understanding of the science and
economics of global change.
It is his clear intent that this seminar break new
ground in bringing the scientific and economic aspects
of global change into close interaction and that the
results of the seminar would feed into this IPCC
process. We would hope to provide new information
toward the formulation of sound policy in this area.
3.
The President should use this occasion to reinforce his
Malta invitation to host the first negotiating session
on The Framework Convention. Not to do so would imply
a desire to pull back from that invitation and leave
the President open to a whole range of unfair charges.
D. ALLAN BROMLEY
2/1/90
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(Lange/Cawley)
February 1, 1989
IS90 JAN 32 F.I 12: 04
10:45 A.M.
[IPCC.DOC]
PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS: INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY
MONDAY, FEBRUARY 5, 1990
10:15 A.M.
Thank you, Dr. Bolin [Bo-leen]. Professor Obasi. Dr.
Tolba. Delegates of the World Meteorological Congress, and the
United Nations Environment Program. Let me thank and
congratulate all of you, for taking on an issue of such great
importance. The decisions this organization makes will have a
profound effect on the world's environmental and economic policy.
In the post-war era, we've produced the most technologically
advanced creations of man. We've also gained new understanding
-- though still incomplete -- of the most ecologically fragile
creations of nature.
But unfortunately, somewhere along the way, we picked up a
bias, that has harmed both man and nature: a mistaken belief
that there is a divergence of interests -- a logical division --
between the natural world and we who inhabit it.
Nothing could be further from the truth -- or more central
to the work of this Panel. You are called upon to strike an
unprecedented international bargain: a convergence between
global environmental policy, and global economic policy, where
both sides benefit -- and neither is compromised.
You are called upon to end the environmental cold war.
There in no invironmental cold war-
internationally, not a good reference
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2
This will be possible only if we understand that economic
growth and environmental integrity are not contradictory
priorities. One reinforces and complements the other.
slin
A sound environment is the basis for the continuity and
not a
new islea
quality of human life and enterprise. And strong economies allow
nations to fulfill the obligations of environmental stewardship.
alt in
Where there is economic strength, such stewardship is considered
a necessity. But where there is poverty, it is too often a
what RSW6 doing (IPCC)
luxury.
For that reason, I believe we must usher 1 in a new era of
already
in
here
alsohn
global cooperation: for environmental protection and economic
growth. For intelligent management of industrial and natural
resources. Above all, for sustainable development -- around the
world.
The United States believes the I.P.C.C. is the best forum to
develop policy on global climate change. We're committed to
international cooperation on this issue. And we consider it
vital, that the community of nations is drawn together -- in an
ordered, rational way -- to assess the potential for climate
change.
The state of the science; the social and economic impacts;
and the right response strategies: all are crucial components to
a global resolution. The stakes here are very high.
There is no question that human activities are changing the
atmosphere in unexpected and unprecedented ways. Since the mid-
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3
1800s, the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has gone up
by 25 percent.
What we don't yet understand is the extent of the
alterations we've brought about -- and how they're linked to a
Why of this Kemember, Has meeting of the Intergovernmental Namel m Climate Change
significant, imminent climate change.
see
there good tony in net
Last fall, many clear thinkers among them, world leaders
ice
-- were citing a significant thinning of sea ice at the poles as
#
evidence that global warming had arrived. Recent observations
polasherts
ice
show that the polar ice sheets are not melting, they're growing
in size.
while both statements are true, they are
2 very different phenomena. hinking them this way is
I'm not prepared -- academically, or otherwise -- to draw
not
quite
conclusions. But I have noticed something about the scientists
correct
drawing the conclusions.
can be
miskedy
Those who see climate change as a clear and present danger
represent one distinct minority. Those who discount it
completely, represent another minority. But many scientists --
if not most -- are not ready to claim that the extent of global
climate change can now be reliably detected -- or predicted.
kind
That may be to their credit.
of
insulting
When he was observing the fervor of the French Revolution,
see
the English poet William Blake wrote, "The best lack all
below
conviction, while the worst are filled with passionate
intensity." Here, too, we are called upon for action based on
not
observation
not media-driven emotion, or the politics of
apocalypse. The decisions being made are too important to be
compromised intellectually -- or polarised politically.
the people at this experience are Here because they case
about the issue - many have cleanted their caseess to
the issue. That does not make them "the wrist."
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4
Questions remain: about the reflective effects of cloud
cover, the cooling effects and CO2 absorption of oceans, and
other sinks and feedback mechanisms we don't yet understand.
this Krethis group
Those questions, among others, suggest that we should attend to
what is known about climate change -- and work to know more.
Current computer models are marvels of mathematics. Still,
they cannot yet be said to represent reality -- and cannot be
expected to predict the future. Above all, responsible policy
cannot rest on the shifting sands of hypothesis and a chaos of
conjecture.
rephace
In the search for answers, the United States
continues
to
lead the world
We're seeking hard data and new ways to improve
the science. Because what science now knows with confidence,
policy-makers can't use. And what policy-makers need to make
decisions, science doesn't yet know.
In spite of this uncertainty, some suggest we should act
why
now, on the chance that significant climate change becomes
say
certain. Others point to the opposite edge of that sword: any
to
this
meaningful preemptive policies would bring only the certainty of
this oup
prohibitive expense; conflict with Third World development; and
declining standards of living, worldwide.
I/I
believe we can do better. There is a reasoned middle
ground, that matches policy to emerging scientific knowledge --
and reconciles environmental protection to economic development.
With every word, with every decision made here, we're also
making a committment that is profoundly personal. I think all of
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5
us understand, deep inside, how the actions we take now speak to
the future.
Last week, in my State of the Union address, I spoke of
air
stewardship. I believe it's something we owe our children and
grandchildren -- because the earth we stand upon is only
borrowed, never. owned.
agreesine and (intelligant) thoughtful action
So the United States remains committed to & leadership role
on environmental issues. In our domestic programs. Our work to
forge international agreements. Our assistance to developing and
East Bloc nations. And here, by leading the Response Strategies
Working Group.
Overall, we're already doing more than any other country to
understand and address global warming -- in terms of financial
and human resources, by more than a factor of ten.
I just proposed a budget to our Congress for fiscal 1991
that devotes a total of over [$70] billion to environment-related
work. Funding for the U.S. Global Change Research Program will
increase by nearly 60 percent, to over $1 billion.
That will allow NASA to move forward with its "Mission to
together with Air international pattners
Planet Earth" -- and the will fund the launch of the first U.S. Earth
Observing System, to advance the state of knowledge about the
planet we share.
du me own creating,
-1We've already taken many steps that bring major benefits in
their own right. Steps that make sense on their own merits, and
that will also help reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other
These should be rephared to be sensitive to the
fact that there will be many very por constries
in the audience.
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6
gases now building up in the atmosphere. Let me outline them
very briefly:
We want to stabilize -- and reduce wherever we can -- both
our energy consumption and our total emissions. so we're
pursuing new technology development. Creating a revised Clean
Air Act with incentives for industry to find creative, market-
driven solutions. Working out a comprehensive review and
revision of our National Energy Strategy. And launching a major
reforestation initiative to plant a billion trees a year on
action
private land across America.
with our calleagness countries in
We're also working through diplomatic channels, and through
innovative measures like debt-for-nature swaps, to do more than
simply reduce global deforestation. We hope to reverse it.
The economics of our response strategies to climate change
in ner country
are
are getting intensive study. We intend to develop real data on
the costs of various response strategies, assess new measures,
look forward challenge to obasing other on date nations with to tralies by other netions.
follow ouit. And we wish after
technical support the who need it our international cellergues -
laste frward to adaress
wash
As we work to create policy to manage CO2 and other
emissions, we want to encourage the most innovative responses.
Wherever possible, we believe that market mechanisms should be
applied -- and that policy must be consistent with economic
growth and free market principles in all countries. But we will
break dialogue the -- hold through of the a shared environmental commitment cold to war consensus. only through
only
no war
we areut doing the the
note: mo
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7
If we hope to promote environmental protection and economic
growth around the world, it will be important to work with, not
against industry. That will mean moving beyond the tradition of
command, control, and compliance -- toward a new kind of
environmental cooperation. Many industries, in fact, are already
providing crucial research and solutions. And a few are already
ahead of us.
One power-plant management firm, just across the river in
spuck not in this
Virginia, donated $2 million in 1988 for tree planting in
Guatemala -- to compensate for a coal-fired plant it was building
in Connecticut. And the company expects to couple tree-planting
programs with all of the new power plants now on its drawing
boards.
Where developing nations are concerned, some suggest we'll
have to abandon the laissez-faire, free-market principles that
allowed the industrial world to prosper. In fact, we think it's
all the more crucial, in the developing countries, to apply the
principles of the free market in the service of the environment.
To the extent we can accelerate the advancement of these
nations, it will take less energy for them to produce wealth: in
modern industrial countries, energy use per unit of G.N.P. has
declined over time -- steadily, and dramatically.
look freward to working with
So we need to work with the developing nations: Applying
the power of the marketplace, considering technology transfer,
to will with
and encouraging industry to societ developing nations in making
quantum leaps in technologies. That will allow developing
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8
nations to grow more quickly and easily -- and may help them
avoid making the environmental mistakes we older nations have
made.
As I said a moment ago, I believe we should make use of what
?
we know. We know that the future of the earth cannot be
compromised. We bear a sacred trust in our tenancy here -- and a
nice
covenant with those most precious to us: our children, and
theirs.
We also know of the efficiency of economic incentive -- and
that free markets yield the most creative solutions. We must now
apply the wisdom of the market, in defense of the environment we
share. Itnis time to heal this false schism. It is time to put
no
an end to the environmental cold war.
war
Working together, with good faith and earnest dialogue,
V
believe it can be done. But more important: We know it must be
done.
Thank you -- and God bless you.
# # #
more here about luck the good work of IPCC, etc
and wish them well in their extining
effects to address this very difficult issue
02/01/90 20:03
202 252 0279
ADMIN OFFICE EPA
5
002
February 1, 1990
Comments on Draft Presidential Speech
1.
The speech will be perceived as a step backward on the
President's environmental commitment, particularly in its
apparent dismissal of any sense of urgency about climate
change. The rhetoric is inflammatory and will be very badly
received by the conference participants, the environmental
community (both domestic and international), and the press.
2.
The tone is negative and not one of Presidential leadership.
The draft misses the opportunity to lead on the issue and to
be positive on our commitment to a serious approach to the
greenhouse effect and to be part of the international
process of finding solutions.
3.
So much emphasis on scientific doubt -- (e.g., computer
models and melting of polar ice cap) -- will be viewed as
U.S. foot dragging rather than a serious and responsible
Presidential approach.
4.
Omits U.S. accomplishments on CFCs, energy conservation
package recently announced by DOE, AID efforts, and could
have more emphasis on reforestation.
5.
Inexplicably, the speech fails to reiterate past policy
initiatives and planned future initiatives -- Malta offer to
host first negotiating session of Framework Convention,
April meeting on science/economics/environment, Noordwijk
commitment to stabilizations, Baker commitment to search for
initiatives that make sense in own right.
6.
Misses opportunity to challenge other nations to join us in
serious analytic work on the science, economics, technical
activities.
7.
Misses opportunity to challenge other nations and
individuals to conserve energy, plant trees, and ensure both
environmental protection and economic growth -- establishing
a world worthy of our grandchildren.
8.
The negative tone that permeates the draft makes line-editing
impossible; an entirely new speech is needed.
02/01/90 20:02
202 252 0279
ADMIN OFFICE EPA
5.
001
AGENCY UNITED STATES
UNITED STATES ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
PROTECTION
WASHINGTON D.C. 20460
OFFICE OF
THE ADMINISTRATOR
TO:
Dr. Allan Bromley
FROM:
William K. Reilly, Administrator
382-4700
COMMENTS:
For your personal review -- IPCC speech comments
Number of Pages to follow:
1
Date:
2/1/90
Time:
7:00 PM
Transmission Number: (202) 252-0279
Verification Number: (202) 382-4700
Office of the Administrator
401 M street, S.W.
Room 1200 West Tower
Mail Code: A-100