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Originally Processed With FOIA(s): FOIA Number: S 2011-2184-F FOIA MARKER This is not a textual record. This is used as an administrative marker by the George Bush Presidential Library Staff. Record Group/Collection: George H.W. Bush Presidential Records Collection/Office of Origin: Speechwriting, White House Office of Series: Speech File Draft Files Subseries: Chron File, 1989-1993 OA/ID Number: 13485 Folder ID Number: 13485-010 Folder Title: U.S. Chamber of Commerce, 5/1/89 [2] Stack: Row: Section: Shelf: Position: G 26 15 7 1 THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON April 26, 1989 INFORMATION MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT FROM: DANIEL McGROARTY Much THE PRESIDENT HAS SEEN THROUGH: CHRISS WINSTON w 4/30/89 SUBJECT: CHAMBER OF COMMERCE SPEECH I. SUMMARY The attached draft has been prepared for your address to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce annual convention, 10:15 a.m., May 1, 1989, in Constitution Hall. The audience will be approximately 2000 business owners and executives. II. DISCUSSION The Chamber of Commerce provides the perfect platform for a discussion of urgent economic concerns, and our plans for sustaining growth. The speech highlights the budget agreement, states the case for a cut in the capital gains tax, and lays out your positions on the minimum wage, S&L reform, and international trade. McGroarty/Simon April 26, 1989 7:45 pm PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS: U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE CONSTITUTION HALL MAY 1, 1989 10:15 a.m. [Introductory remarks Acknowledgements of outgoing Chmn. Bill Kanaga, incoming Chmn. John Clendenin, Pres. Dick Lesher ] I want to thank the Chamber of Commerce for providing me a chance to deliver a May Day message, American-style. On May Day, I always think about that celebration in the Soviet Union. All those red banners The big military parade Even the Economic Planning Ministry had a unit in the parade -- two hundred economists marching along yelling, "Mayday! Mayday!" Today, that is beginning to change. Even the socialist world is beginning to see that socialism isn't just another economic system -- it's the death of economics. There's a new breeze blowing -- nations the world over are coming to recognize that free enterprise is the wave of the future. That's a promising forecast for prosperity -- and for world peace. In the United States, the single most significant economic indicator of this decade is up one, as of today: we have enjoyed 77 full months of the longest peacetime economic expansion in American history. Without a doubt, this long-running economic expansion has been good for American business, and for the American worker. In the past 77 months, we've added nearly twenty million new jobs -- and more Americans have moved up on the pay scale. Since 1982, the number of jobs paying less than $5 dollars an hour is down 25%, while jobs paying $10 or more dollars an hour have increased by 95%. Unemployment is at its lowest point in the past 15 years. During this economic expansion, America's industrial output is up 40% -- overall growth, up 29%. For those with an eye on the international competition, that's more than double Europe's industrial output, and slightly higher than Japan's. And the expansion has been just as good to the average American family. Per capita personal income is up 19% -- and that's take home "after tax" pay, adjusted for inflation. Real median family income has reached a new high. That's quite an economic success story. Our challenge now is to keep it going. We can -- and we will. We've all heard the naysayers. I think there are a few out there whose predictions of economic disaster are now in their 78th straight month The naysayers are wrong -- but why? What they've underestimated is the resilience, the remarkable responsiveness of the free enterprise system. You can focus on government so long, that you forget that it's the private sector that's home to the innovation and economic creativity that powers this expansion. 3 I've been a small businessman myself, starting out with an idea, and building it into a business. I know the risks -- and the rewards: the payoff in pride when you succeed Actually, not that much has changed: I've still got something in common with a lot of small businessmen in America. I also work out of my house Entrepreneurs know this simple truth: nothing wagered, nothing won. That's why I want a government that prompts entrepreneurs to take risks -- not a government that forces them to take refuge. That doesn't mean government's only job is simply to stand back and step out of the way. There's plenty for the government to do, to make sure commerce is free and fair, and to maintain a climate where free enterprise can take place and prosper. And today, the federal government's number one economic priority is dealing with the deficit. We've made a good start. The budget agreement Congress and my Administration concluded two weeks ago will keep the federal deficit below the Gramm-Rudman target. And we haven't sacrificed our social or national security responsibilities in the process. The budget level we've agreed on will allow us to discharge the critical duties of government. We'll be able to provide for our national security, meet the needs of the disadvantaged, and accelerate the funding of several high-priority programs. Have page Our agreement SE 4 reviewed an people, and to our trading partne ing that deficit down. by Sununu And the deficit and Dannen traight dollar terms, but as a perce too restrical re cutting the deficit by two-thirds in 1983, to a projected 1.7% in 199 One word more about the budget agreement for 1990. We've agreed to $5.3 billion dollars in "new revenues" as part of the deal. You're going to hear a lot about those "new revenues" in the months ahead -- so let me say my piece now. J.S. First of all, let me assure you: "new revenues" isn't a code word for new taxes. I've given my word many times, and I'll give it again today: no new taxes means just that. And I'll make it so clear that even the duck hunters among us will understand: we won't raise taxes with word games. We all know a tax when we see one -- and you won't see any in the agreement I've signed onto. I have news for the castor-oil club -- the gang that's trying hard to get us to swallow new taxes. That's bad medicine for the economy. The deficit exists because we over-spend -- not because we're under-taxed. I could be wrong, but I don't think there's a person in this room ready to stand up and say they're undertaxed. 5 Let me tell you what my favorite source of new revenue is. We don't have to raise tax rates -- we have to release the energies of free enterprise. In a growing economy, tax revenues will take care of themselves. In fiscal 1990 alone -- thanks to expanding economic activity -- the Treasury will take in more than $80 billion dollars in increased revenues, not through higher taxes, but under the existing tax structure. So let's not hunt for ways to wring another dollar in taxes out of our economy -- let's concentrate on creating conditions for continued growth. That's why I've called on Congress to restore the capital gains differential. In 1990 alone, this step would bring an extra $4.8 billion dollars into the federal treasury -- and that doesn't count increased economic activity spurred by a lower tax rate. That $4.8 billion is the lion's share of the $5.3 billion we need in the way of "new revenues" under our budget agreement - - and my estimate is on the conservative side. Let's take a look at what our competitors are doing. Canada's maximum capital gains tax rate is about half the U.S. rate. The same is true for Sweden and France. Japan's rate? A scant 5%. West Germany exempts all long-term capital gains from any tax whatever -- and among the newly industrialized economies of the Pacific rim, Singapore, Hong Kong and South Korea have no capital gains tax at all. 6 Among our competitors, those low rates contribute to low capital costs. Cutting our own capital gains rates would encourage productive investment -- in addition to generating the "new revenues" we need to meet our deficit reduction agreement. I think the case for a capital gains cut is a strong one, but there are several other economic issues I want to discuss here today. First, a pressing problem with important consequences for our long term fiscal health: the S&L situation. This Administration recognized the immediate need to take action to stabilize the S&L system. Less than three weeks after taking office, we sent to Congress a comprehensive S&L reform plan -- one designed to stop the dollar drain and deal with insolvent thrifts, and restore confidence in the S&L system. The Senate passed an S&L package with a resounding majority: 91 to 8. I urge the House to move quickly to give us the tools we need to reform the S&L system by passing my bill quickly -- with its central provisions intact. And I have a second message for the Congress, as it debates an increase in the minimum wage. I've indicated my support for increasing the minimum wage over three years to $4.25 an hour. I also want to establish a six-month training wage for new workers at the current $3.35 rate, and expand the exemption from minimum wage requirements for all small businesses with annual sales under half a million dollars. 7 It's time for those who want a higher wage to move beyond the rhetoric, and take a look at the consequences. We all know the studies that show a 10% increase in the minimum wage will cost America between one hundred and two hundred thousand jobs for those who need them most. What happens when minimum-wage workers open that pay envelope expecting a fatter paycheck -- n nink slip instead? An irresponsible increase in jobs, as employers cut back to compensa also cite $4.25 is as far as I can go -- it's my determination We must guard against conferring 1 to hold line mandate, and leaving employers to cope your concern about legislative efforts on costs parental leave. I also believe that cl ABC too made by parents -- not government -- ai expensive Commerce supports the concept of choice. There are some child care initiatives up on Capitol Hill -- well-intended initiatives -- that would increase government cuat Jeapardiseau efforts to cut the intervention and crowd out parental choice. The child care tax federal credit initiatives I've proposed preserve choice -- letting clificats parents decide whether to place their child in the care of a relative, in a church-run center, or in a public day care facility. Let's let parents decide what's right for themselves. Finally, I'll close with a brief comment on an issue I know is vital to those of you here today -- vital, in fact, to all Americans in our evolving economy: International trade. We are determined to hold the line onspending and the ABC the symply put is too expensive not only misqueded hut too expensive 8 The global economy is a fact of life. It is no longer possible to draw a sharp line between domestic and international markets. This Administration is committed to securing an open and fair world trading system -- because fair trade provides opportunities for America's competitiveness to come to the fore. We have the ingenuity to be preeminent and the drive to succeed. Entrepreneurs like you are our ace in the hole. Our challenge is to make the most of this competitive edge. That's why we will work vigorously to break down barriers abroad, while keeping markets open here at home. If any country -- including the United States -- is fooled into thinking that a closed market can be a prosperous one, they're wrong. Closed markets mean closed doors to opportunity - - and that means less prosperity. [pause] The Chamber of Commerce has always stood for economic freedom -- and I know you share my view that there is no surer route to prosperity and progress than the system of free enterprise. The message of the past 77 months is clear: We can keep the economy strong, sustain the longest expansion in American history, and ensure America a productive and prosperous future -- provided that government policies preserve the greatest possible freedom for American enterprise to innovate, create and compete. Thank you. THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON April 26, 1989 MEMORANDUM TO CHRISS WINSTON FROM: ROGER PORTER BILL ROPER JIM PINKERTON SUBJECT: U.S. Chamber of Commerce Draft Speech We think this is a very strong statement of the President's economic principles. There are some good lines, such as "castor oil club." 1,3,3 We suggest adding one of the President's trademark lines to this sentence: "Nations the world over are coming to recognize that free enterprise is the wave of the future -- part of what I call the New Breeze that is sweeping the world. [emphasis added] 2,2,1 The first quarter GNP figures which came out today might be worth mentioning here. Document No. 030268SS WHITE HOUSE STAFFING MEMORANDUM 4/25/89 DATE: ACTION/CONCURRENCE/COMMENT DUE BY: 4/26/89 c.o.b. SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS: U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE ACTION FYI ACTION FYI VICE PRESIDENT MCCLURE SUNUNU NEWMAN SCOWCROFT PORTER DARMAN STUDDERT BATES UNTERMEYER BREEDEN ROGERS CARD WINSTON CICCONI PINKERTON DEMAREST BOSKIN FITZWATER GRAY HAGIN REMARKS: Please forward any comments directly to Chriss Winston, Rm. 122, x2930, no later than c.o.b. Wednesday, April 26, 1989, with an info copy to my office. Thank you. RESPONSE: James W. Cicconi Assistant to the President and Deputy to the Chief of Staff Ext. 2702 McGroarty/Simon April 25, 1989 23 6:45 pm Draft 3 PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS: U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON, D.C. MAY 1, 1989 [Introductory remarks Acknowledgements of outgoing Chmn. Bill Kanagka, incoming Chmn. John Clendenin, Pres. Dick Lesher ] I want to thank the Chamber of Commerce for providing me a chance to deliver a May Day message, American-style. On May Day, I always think about that celebration in the Soviet Union. All those red banners The big military parade Even the Economic Planning Ministry had a unit in the parade -- two hundred economists marching along yelling, "Mayday! Mayday!" Today, that is beginning to change. Even the socialist world is beginning to see that socialism isn't just another economic system -- it's the death of economics. Nations the world over are coming to recognize that free enterprise is the Part r what I call The New Bruge that is sweeping The world. wave of the future. 1 That's a promising forecast for prosperity - - and for world peace. In the United States, the single most significant economic indicator of this decade is up one, as of today: today begins the 77th month of uninterrupted economic growth in the American economy. Without a doubt, this long-running economic expansion has been good for American business, and for the American worker. In those 77 months, we've added over twenty million new jobs -- and more Americans have moved up on the pay scale. Since 1982, the number of jobs paying less than $5 dollars an hour is down 30%, while jobs paying $10 or more dollars an hour have increased by 80%. Unemployment is at its lowest point in the past 15 years. In those 77 months, America's industrial output is up 33% -- this year was overall growth, up 26%. For those with an eye on the international competition, that's a more rapid rate of growth than Japan reports for that same period, and it's double that of Europe. And the expansion has been just as good to the average American family. Per capita personal income is up 17% -- and that's take home "after tax" pay, adjusted for inflation. In 1987, median family income reached a new high -- and it's continued to climb since then. That's quite an economic success story. Our challenge now is to keep it going. We can -- and we will. We've all heard the naysayers. I think there are a few out there whose predictions of economic disaster are now in their 76th straight month The naysayers are wrong -- but why? What they've underestimated is the resilience, the remarkable responsiveness of the free enterprise system. You can focus on government so long, that you forget that it's the private sector that's home to the innovation and economic creativity that powers this expansion. 3 I've been a small businessman myself, starting out with an idea, and building it into a business. I know the risks -- and the rewards: the payoff in pride when you succeed Actually, not that much has changed: I've still got something in common with a lot of small businessmen in America. I also work out of my house Entrepreneurs know this simple truth: nothing wagered, nothing won. That's why I want a government that prompts entrepreneurs to take risks -- not a government that forces them to take refuge. That doesn't mean government's only job is simply to stand back and step out of the way. There's plenty for the government to do, to make sure commerce is free and fair, and to maintain a climate where free enterprise can take place and prosper. And today, the federal government's number one economic priority is dealing with the deficit. We've made a good start. The budget agreement Congress and my Administration concluded two weeks ago will keep federal spending below the Gramm-Rudman target. And we haven't sacrificed our social or national security responsibilities in the process. The budget level we've agreed on will allow us to discharge the critical duties of government. We'll be able to provide for our national security, meet the needs of the disadvantaged, and accelerate the funding of several high- priority programs. 4 Our agreement sends a signal -- to the American people, and to our trading partners: we're serious about getting that deficit down. And the deficit is coming down, not only in straight dollar terms, but as a percentage of our annual GNP. We've cut the deficit in half, from a high of 5.7% of GNP in 1986, to a projected 2.9% in 1990. One word more about the budget agreement for 1990. We've agreed to $5.3 billion dollars in "new revenues" as part of the deal. You're going to hear a lot about those "new revenues" in the months ahead -- so let me say my piece now. First of all, let me assure you: "new revenues" isn't a code word for new taxes. I've given my word many times, and I'll give it again today: no new taxes means just that. And I'll make it, so clear that even the duck hunters among us will understand: we won't raise taxes with word games. We all know a tax when we see one -- and you won't see any in the agreement I've signed onto. I have news for the castor-oil club -- the gang that's trying hard to get us to swallow new taxes. That's bad medicine for the economy. The deficit exists because we over-spend -- not because we're under-taxed. Let me tell you what my favorite source of new revenue is. We don't have to raise tax rates -- we have to release the energies of free enterprise. 5 In a growing economy, tax revenues will take care of themselves. In 1990 alone -- thanks to expanding economic activity -- the Treasury will take in $80 billion dollars in increased revenues, not through higher taxes, but under the existing tax structure. That's why I've called on Congress to cut the capital gains tax. In 1990 alone, increased economic activity spurred by a cut in capital gains would bring an extra $4.8 billion dollars into the federal treasury. That's the lion's share of the $5.3 billion dollars we need in the way of "new revenues" under our budget agreement -- and my estimate is on the conservative side. So let's not hunt for ways to wring another dollar in taxes out of our economy -- let's concentrate on creating conditions for continued growth. Let's take a look at what our competitors are doing. Canada taxes capital gains at about half the rate that we do. So do Sweden and France. Japan's rate? A scant 5%. West Germany exempts all long-term capital gains from any tax whatever -- and among the newly industrialized economies of the Pacific rim, five out of six have no capital gains tax at all. Among our competitors, those low rates contribute to low capital costs. Cutting our own capital gains rates would encourage productive investment -- in addition to generating the "new revenues" we need to meet our deficit reduction agreement. I think the case for a capital gains cut is a strong one, 6 but there are several other economic issues I want to discuss here today. First, a pressing problem with important to our long term fiscal health: the S&L situation. This Administration recognized the immediate need to take action to stabilize the S&L system. Less than three weeks after taking office, we sent to Congress a comprehensive S&L reform plan -- one designed to stop the dollar drain and deal with insolvent thrifts, and restore confidence in the S&L system. The Senate passed my package with a resounding majority: 91 to 8. I urge the House to move quickly to give us the tools we need to repair the S&L system by passing my bill quickly -- with its central provisions intact. And I have a second message for Congress, as it debates an increase in the minimum wage. I've indicated my support for increasing the minimum wage over three years to $4.25 an hour. I also want to establish a six-month training wage for new workers at the old $3.35 rate, and expand the exemption from minimum wage requirements for all small businesses with annual sales under half a million dollars. It's time for those who want a higher wage to move beyond the rhetoric, and take a look at the consequences. We all know the studies that show a 10% increase in the minimum wage will result in a loss of one hundred to two hundred thousand jobs. What happens when minimum-wage workers open that pay envelope expecting a fatter paycheck -- and find a pink slip 7 instead? An irresponsible increase in the minimum wage will cost jobs, as employers cut back to compensate for increased costs. $4.25 is as far as I can go -- it's my first and final offer. Finally, I'll close with a brief comment on an issue I know is vital to those of you here today -- vital, in fact, to all Americans in our evolving economy: International trade. The global economy is a fundamental fact of economic life. It is no longer possible to draw a sharp line between domestic and international markets. This Administration is committed to securing a truly free world trading system -- and we can't have free trade without fair trade. This is no time to wall off the American economy, in hopes of securing U.S. companies against foreign competition. It is high time to work with our trade partners to lower the barriers to free and fair trade, for the benefit of all alike. You have my word that the United States government will seek with added energy to open up foreign markets now closed to U.S. exports. Protectionism runs dead against a global trend towards more open and extensive commerce between nations -- and I'm dead set against protectionism. [pause] The Chamber of Commerce has always stood for economic freedom -- and I know you share my view that there is no surer route to prosperity and progress than the system of free enterprise. 8 The message of the past 77 months is clear: We can keep the economy strong, sustain the longest expansion in American history, and ensure America a productive and prosperous future provided that government policies preserve the greatest possible freedom for American enterprise to innovate, create and compete. Thank you. THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON April 28, 1989 TO: Chriss Winston FROM: Richard C. Breeden Attached is a proposed replacement for the S&L language contained in the Chamber of Commerce speech. Insert, p. 6 of Chamber of Commerce Speech Another important economic issue is the stability of our financial system. Not since Franklin Roosevelt has a new President had to face the possibility of serious instability in the financial system. The difficulties of this industry, which holds over $1.3 trillion in assets, have been building for at least two decades, and the scale of losses that were incurred is enormous. As Vice President, I led a Task Group that looked at how to strengthen the overall financial system. In 1984 that group unanimously recommended that thrift institutions should be subjected to the same capital and accounting standards that are applied to banks, along with dozens of additional recommendations to overhaul and strengthen the supervisory system. Less than three weeks after taking office, I sent Congress a comprehensive plan for a sweeping overhaul of the regulatory structure. This legislation requires a return to higher capital standards, serious accounting practices and tough enforcement provisions to prevent fraud, mismanagement and insider abuse. The Senate has passed my legislation, largely intact, by an overwhelming 91-8 margin. Action in the House has also been progressing. Just last Thursday, the House Banking Committee significantly strengthened the capital standards that will be required for the future, reversing irresponsible action that had occurred in subcommittee. This issue is important. I will not accept legislation that invites a future repetition of this crisis by failing to impose adequate capital and accounting discipline, consistent with that imposed on our national banks. I also cannot agree that taxpayers should be forced to back any new growth incurred by firms that cannot or will not put their own money at risk in front of the taxpayers. We intend to honor the national commitment to insured depositors. Their funds will be backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government. However, the shareholders and management of insolvent firms should not expect they will be allowed to pick the taxpayers pocket and escape to repeat their old ways. We intend to carry out the necessary reforms to clean up the market, and to make it safe and sound for the future. I also intend to see to it that those thrift executives who have violated the law and looted insured institutions will be investigated, prosecuted and put behind bars where they belong. The enactment of this major legislation should proceed as a high priority of the Congress. Continuing losses are significant, and the financing provided in the bill is essential to any permanent resolution of the insolvent firms so that they cannot threaten the stability of the entire system. Enactment of this legislation will represent an historic reform of financial regulation, and I urge Congress to end the abusive practices of the past once and for all. Bob Smon's changes McGroarty/Simon April 26, 1989 7:45 pm PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS: U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE CONSTITUTION HALL MAY 1, 1989 10:15 a.m. [Introductory remarks Acknowledgements of outgoing Chmn. Bill Kanaga, incoming Chmn. John Clendenin, Pres. Dick Lesher ] I want to thank the Chamber of Commerce for providing me a chance to deliver a May Day message, American-style. On May Day, I always think about that celebration in the Soviet Union. All those red banners .... The big military parade Even the Economic Planning Ministry had a unit in the parade -- two hundred economists marching along yelling, "Mayday! Mayday!" ((PAUSE)) Today, that is beginning to change. Even the socialist world is beginning to see that socialism isn't just another economic system -- it's the death of economics. There's a new breeze blowing -- nations the world over are coming to recognize that free enterprise is the wave of the future. That's a promising forecast for prosperity -- and for world peace. In the United States, the single most significant economic indicator of this decade is up one, as of today: we have enjoyed 77 full months of the longest peacetime economic expansion in American history. Without a doubt, this long-running economic expansion has been good for American business, and for the American worker. In the past 77 months, we've added nearly twenty million new jobs -- and more Americans have moved up on the pay scale. Since 1982, the number of jobs paying less than $5 dollars an hour is down 25%, while jobs paying $10 or more dollars an hour have increased by 95%. Unemployment is at its lowest point in the past 15 years. During this economic expansion, America's industrial output is up 40% -- overall growth, up 29%. For those with an eye on the 4 the international competition, that's more than double Europe's industrial output, and slightly higher than Japan's. And the expansion has been just as good to the average American family. Per capita personal income is up 19% -- and that's take-home "after tax" pay, adjusted for inflation. Real median family income has reached a new high. That's quite an economic success story. Our challenge now is to keep it going. We can -- and we will. We've all heard the naysayers. I think there are a few out there whose predictions of economic disaster are now in their 8716th 78th straight month ... The naysayers are wrong -- but why? What they've underestimated is the resilience, the remarkable responsiveness of the free enterprise system. You can focus on government so long, that you forget that it's the private sector that's home to the innovation and economic creativity that powers this expansion. 3 I've been a small businessman myself, starting out with an idea, and building it into a business. I know the risks -- and the rewards: the payoff in pride when you succeed Actually, not that much has changed: I've still got something in common with a lot of small businessmen in America. I also work out of my house Entrepreneurs know this simple truth: nothing wagered, nothing won. That's why I want a government that prompts entrepreneurs to take risks -- not a government that forces them to take refuge. That doesn't mean government's only job is simply to stand back and step out of the way. There's plenty for the government to do, to make sure commerce is free and fair, and to maintain a climate where free enterprise can take place and prosper. And today, the federal government's number one economic priority is dealing with the deficit. We've made a good start. The budget agreement Congress and my Administration concluded two weeks ago will keep the federal deficit below the Gramm-Rudman target. And we haven't sacrificed our social or national security responsibilities in the process. The budget level we've agreed on will allow us to discharge the critical duties of government. We'll be able to provide for our national security, meet the needs of the disadvantaged, and accelerate the funding of several high-priority programs. 4 Our agreement sends a signal -- to the American people, and to our trading partners: we're serious about getting that deficit down. And the deficit is coming down, not only in straight dollar terms, but as a percentage of our annual GNP. By the end of this fiscal year, we will have cut the deficit in half, from 6.3% of GNP in 1983, to an estimated 3.1% in 1989. One word more about the budget agreement for 1990. We've agreed to $5.3 billion dollars in "new revenues" as part of the deal. You're going to hear a lot about those "new revenues" in the months ahead -- so let me say my piece now. First of all, let me assure you: "new revenues" isn't a code word for new taxes. I've given my word many times, and I'll give it again today: no new taxes means just that. And I'll make it so clear that even the duck hunters among us will understand: we won't raise taxes with word games. We all know a tax when we see one -- and you won't see any in the agreement I've signed onto. I have news for the castor-oil club -- the gang that's trying hard to get us to swallow new taxes. That's bad medicine for the economy. The deficit exists because we over-spend -- not because we're under-taxed. I could be wrong, but I don't think there's a person in this room ready to stand up and say they're undertaxed. 5 Let me tell you what my favorite source of new revenue is. We don't have to raise tax rates -- we have to release the energies of free enterprise. In a growing economy, tax revenues will take care of themselves. In fiscal 1990 alone -- thanks to expanding economic activity -- the Treasury will take in more than $80 billion dollars in increased revenues, not through higher taxes, but under the existing tax structure. So let's not hunt for ways to wring another dollar in taxes out of our economy -- let's concentrate on creating conditions for continued growth. That's why I've called on Congress to restore the capital gains differential. In 1990 alone, this step would bring an extra $4.8 billion dollars into the federal treasury -- and that doesn't count increased economic activity spurred by a lower tax rate. That $4.8 billion is the lion's share of the $5.3 billion we need in the way of "new revenues" under our budget agreement I - and my estimate is on the conservative side. Let's take a look at what our competitors are doing. Canada's maximum capital gains tax rate is about half the U.S. Larry How about Lindsey rate. The same is true for Sweden and France. Japan's rate? seariting OPD For program entreprenours who builtheir businesses from scratch: A scant 5%. West Germany exempts all long-term capital gains he X6402 from any tax whatever -- and among the newly industrialized economies of the Pacific rim, Singapore, Hong Kong and South Korea have no capital gains tax at all. 6 Among our competitors, those low rates contribute to low capital costs. Cutting our own capital gains rates would encourage productive investment -- in addition to generating the "new revenues" we need to meet our deficit reduction agreement. I think the case for a capital gains cut is a strong one, but there are several other economic issues I want to discuss here today. First, a pressing problem with important consequences for our long term fiscal health: the S&L situation. This Administration recognized the immediate need to take action to stabilize the S&L system. Less than three weeks after taking office, we sent proposed to Congress a comprehensive S&L reform plan -- one designed to stop the dollar drain and deal with insolvent thrifts, and restore confidence in the S&L system. The Senate passed an S&L package with a resounding majority: 91 to 8. I urge the House to move quickly to give us the tools we need to reform the S&L system by passing my bill quickly -- with its central provisions intact. And I have a second message for the Congress, as it debates an increase in the minimum wage. I've indicated my support for increasing the minimum wage over three years to $4.25 an hour. I also want to establish a six-month training wage for new workers at the current $3.35 rate, and expand the exemption from minimum wage requirements for all small businesses with annual sales under half a million dollars. 7 It's time for those who want a higher wage to move beyond the rhetoric, and take a look at the consequences. We all know that each the studies that show a 10% increase in the minimum wage will cost America between one hundred and two hundred thousand jobs for those who need them most. What happens when minimum-wage workers open that pay envelope expecting a fatter paycheck -- and find a pink slip instead? An irresponsible increase in the minimum wage will cost jobs, as employers cut back to compensate for increased costs. $4.25 is as far as I can go -- it's my first and final offer. We must guard against conferring benefits by government mandate, and leaving employers to cope with the costs. I share your concern about legislative efforts to mandate medical and parental leave. I also believe that choice in child care is best made by parents -- not government -- and I know the Chamber of Commerce supports the concept of choice. There are some child care initiatives up on Capitol Hill -- well-intended initiatives -- that would increase government intervention and crowd out parental choice. The child care tax credit initiatives I've proposed preserve@choice -- letting parents decide whether to place their child in the care of a relative, in a church-run center, or in a public day care facility. Let's let parents decide what's right for themselves. Finally, I'll close with a brief comment on an issue I know is vital to those of you here today -- vital, in fact, to all Americans in our evolving economy: International trade. 8 The global economy is a fact of life. It is no longer possible to draw a sharp line between domestic and international markets. This Administration is committed to securing an open and fair world trading system -- because fair trade provides opportunities for America's competitiveness to come to the fore. We have the ingenuity to be preeminent and the drive to succeed. Entrepreneurs like you are our ace in the hole. Our challenge is to make the most of this competitive edge. That's why we will work vigorously to break down barriers abroad, while keeping markets open here at home. If any country -- including the United States -- is fooled into thinking that a closed market can be a prosperous one, they're wrong. Closed markets mean closed doors to opportunity - and that means less prosperity. [pause] The Chamber of Commerce has always stood for economic freedom -- and I know you share my view that there is no surer route to prosperity and progress than the system of free enterprise. The message of the past 77 months is clear: We can keep the economy strong, sustain the longest expansion in American history, and ensure America a productive and prosperous future -- provided that government policies preserve the greatest possible freedom for American enterprise to innovate, create and compete. Thank you. ### April 26, 1989 MEMORANDUM FOR MICHAEL BOSKIN FROM: CHRISS WINSTON w SUBJECT: Statistics for U.S. Chamber of Commerce Speech As we discussed, the statistics for the President's remarks to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce need to be reconciled between your office, OMB, and the "Building a Better America" fact sheet we released on April 24. Here are the disputed figures on page 2: Allen Kroseila Fact Sheet CEA 5622 OMB 82/88 82/68 "America's industrial output" 33% 33% 40% "overall growth" 26% 26% 82/88 29% 21V/811 "per capital personal income" after taxes and inflation 178RIV 19% "nearly 20%" 1/24 82/V Please provide us with the correct figures as well as the sources used and appropriate back-up material. Siayson Jim781 I, In general OMB does quarter /guarter CEA does year / you for interal'l comp. on pct sheet IND PRODUCTION 1982: 103,1 1982:1V 100.6 1988: 137.2 33,1% 1989 141.0 140.2% CBA OMB GNP (82 $) 1982 3166.0 1982:1V 3159.3 1988 3996.1 126.22 1989 4088.2 T29.470 COA OMP PerCepibel Personal INCOME 82:1V 9749 88:1V 11445 17.4% (Fact shot, out dated) 89:1 11633 19,3% (CEA) OMB did net have up to date data & approximated PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production was unchanged in February, following a 0.4 percent increase in January. The index for February was 5.0 percent above its year-earlier level. INDEX, 1977=100* (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1977 = 100 (RATIO SCALE) 160 TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 240 FINAL PRODUCTS 220 DEFENSE AND 8 140 SPACE 200 EQUIPMENT .2 3 120 180 0 8 BUSINESS 160 8 100 EQUIPMENT .5 160 3 MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION 140 4 140 DURABLE 13 120 CONSUMER 0 NONDURABLE GOODS 5 120 100 7 0 PERCENT* 100 0 100 5 140 CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION (TOTAL INDUSTRY) 9 90 9 120 10 UTILITIES 80 2 100 2 MINING 70 0 6 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS 7 7 3 5 [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] 0 Total Industry production indexes, 1977=100 Capacity utilization 1) industrial rate, percent 1 4 production Manufacturing Period Percent 3 Index. change Mining Utilities Total Manufac- 1977=100 from year Total Durable Nondurable industry turing earlier 1 ; 1977 proportion 100.0 84.21 49.10 35.11 9.83 5.96 1980 108.6 -1.9 108.2 109.1 107.0 112.4 107.3 80.9 1 1981 79.3 111.0 2.2 110.5 111.1 109.7 117.5 107.1 79.9 1982 78.2 103.1 -7.1 102.2 99.9 105.5 109.3 104.8 72.1 1983 70.3 109.2 5.9 110.2 107.7 113.7 102.9 105.2 1984 74.6 73.9 121.4 11.2 123.4 124.2 122.3 111.1 110.7 1985 81.0 80.5 123.7 1.9 126.4 127.6 124.6 108.9 3 111.1 80.4 1986 80.1 125.1 1.1 129.1 128.4 130.1 100.4 108.5 1987 79.4 79.7 129.8 3.8 134.7 133.1 136.8 100.7 110.3 1988 80.7 81.1 137.2 5.7 142.7 141.9 143.9 103.5 3 114.3 83.3 83.6 1988: Feb 134.4 5.8 139.5 138.4 141.1 101.5 115.6 82.4 Mar 82.6 134.7 5.7 140.0 138.8 141.7 102.7 113.3 82.4 Apr 82.7 135.4 6.3 1 140.8 139.7 142.3 104.7 111.0 82.7 May 82.9 136.1 6.2 141.8 141.5 142.1 102.6 111.6 82.9 June 83.3 136.5 5.7 142.1 141.7 142.6 103.0 113.2 July 83.0 83.3 138.0 5.7 143.6 142.9 144.6 104.3 114.4 83.7 Aug 84.0 138.5 5.5 144.0 143.2 145.1 103.8 117.8 Sept 83.8 84.0 138.6 5.7 144.4 143.8 145.3 103.7 113.0 Oct 83.7 84.0 139.4 5.2 145.3 144.6 146.3 103.1 113.9 Nov 84.0 84.3 139.9 5.1 145.8 145.2 146.7 104.7 113.7 Dec 84.1 84.4 140.5 5.0 146.4 145.7 147.3 105.4 115.4 84.3 84.5 1989: Jan , 141.1 5.0 147.4 146.7 148.6 103.4 Feb P 114.8 84.5 84.8 141.1 5.0 147.4 146.9 148.2 101.5 116.9 84.3 84.6 1 Output as percent of capacity. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 17 Industrial Prod good thru 1984 rica La easona A.5 Total, 1919-85 Indexes, seasonally adjusted, 1977 = 100 (Publ 12/86) ANN. YR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC 01 02 or 04 AVG. TOTAL INDEX 19 10.2 9.7 9.5 9.6 9.7 10.3 10.9 11.1 10.9 10.8 10.6 10.8 9.8 ,,, 11.0 10.7 10.3 20 11.8 11.8 11.5 10.9 11.2 11.3 11.0 11.1 10.7 10.3 9.4 8.8 11.7 11.2 10.9 9.5 10.8 21 8.3 8.2 7.9 7.9 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.3 8.4 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.1 8.1 8.3 8.8 8.3 22 9.1 9.5 10.0 9.6 10.1 10.6 10.6 10.4 11.0 11.6 12.1 12.4 9.5 10.1 10.7 12.1 10.6 23 12.2 12.3 12.7 13.0 13.2 13.1 13.0 12.7 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.1 12.4 13.1 12.7 12.3 12.6 24 12.4 12.6 12.4 12.0 11.5 11.0 10.8 11.2 11.6 11.9 12.1 12.4 12.5 11.5 11.2 12.1 11.8 25 12.8 12.8 12.8 13.0 12.9 12.8 13.1 12.9 12.7 13.2 13.5 13.7 12.8 12.9 12.9 13.5 13.0 26 13.5 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.5 13.7 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.0 13.5 13.6 13.9 14.1 13.8 27 14.0 14.1 14.3 13.9 14.0 14.0 13.8 13.8 13.6 13.3 13.3 13.3 14.1 14.0 13.7 13.3 13.8 28 13.6 13.7 13.9 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.5 13.7 14.0 14.5 15.2 14.3 29 15.7 15.7 15.7 16.0 16.3 16.4 16.6 16.4 16.3 16.1 15.3 14.6 15.7 16.2 16.5 15.3 15.9 30 14.6 14.5 14.3 14.2 14.0 13.6 13.0 12.7 12.4 12.1 11.8 11.5 14.5 13.9 12.7 11.8 13.2 31 11.5 11.5 11.8 11.8 11.7 11.4 11.2 10.8 10.5 9.9 9.8 9.7 11.6 11.6 10.8 9.8 11.0 32 9.5 9.2 9.1 8.5 8.2 7.9 7.7 7.9 8.4 8.7 8.7 8.6 9.5 8.2 8.0 8.7 8.6 33 8.4 8.4 7.9 8.5 ,, 11.4 12.5 12.0 11.3 10.8 10.1 10.2 8.3 10.0 11.9 10.4 10.1 34 10.5 11.0 11.5 11.5 11.8 11.5 10.8 10.6 10.0 10.5 10.6 11.3 11.0 11.6 10.5 10.8 11.0 35 12.2 12.4 12.3 12.1 12.1 12.3 12.3 12.7 13.1 13.5 13.7 13.9 12.3 12.2 12.7 13.7 12.7 36 13.7 13.3 13.5 14.4 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.4 16.9 13.5 14.6 15.5 16.4 15.0 37 16.8 17.1 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.3 17.4 17.3 16.7 15.5 14.0 12.7 17.1 17.4 17.1 14.1 16.4 38 12.4 12.3 12.3 12.1 11.8 11.9 12.6 13.3 13.7 14.0 14.6 14.8 12.4 12.0 13.2 14.5 13.0 39 14.8 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.8 15.2 15.6 15.8 16.8 17.6 18.1 18.1 14.9 14.9 16.1 17.9 16.0 40 17.9 17.3 16.9 17.2 17.7 18.3 18.5 18.6 19.0 19.3 19.8 20.4 17.3 17.8 18.7 19.3 18.4 41 21.0 21.6 22.2 22.3 23.3 23.5 23.8 24.1 24.1 24.3 24.4 24.8 21.6 23.0 24.0 24.5 42 25.3 23.3 25.7 26.0 25.3 25.3 25.4 26.0 26.8 27.4 28.3 29.0 29.7 25.7 25.3 26.8 29.0 26.7 43 30.0 30.8 31.0 31.4 31.6 31.4 32.4 33.1 33.9 34.4 34.9 34.4 30.6 31.5 33.1 34.6 32.4 44 34.8 35.1 35.0 35.0 34.8 34.7 34.6 35.1 34.9 35.0 34.7 34.6 35.0 34.8 34.9 34.8 34.2 34.9 45 34.1 33.9 33.5 32.4 31.7 30.9 27.7 25.2 24.2 25.1 25.2 34.1 32.4 28.0 24.9 29.9 " 23.8 22.6 25.0 24.6 23.7 25.1 26.0 26.9 27.4 27.9 28.1 28.3 23.8 24.4 26.8 28.1 47 28.6 28.8 25.8 29.0 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.7 29.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 48 29.6 30.0 30.1 29.0 29.7 29.8 30.3 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.4 30.6 30.2 29.9 29.9 30.3 30.5 30.2 49 30.2 29.6 29.3 28.8 28.6 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.4 28.7 27.6 28.3 28.8 29.3 28.3 28.4 28.3 50 29.3 29.5 28.6 30.4 31.4 32.2 33.1 34.2 35.3 35.0 35.3 35.2 35.8 29.7 32.2 34.8 35.4 33.1 51 35.9 36.2 36.3 36.4 36.3 36.1 35.5 35.2 35.4 35.4 35.7 35.9 36.1 36.3 35.4 35.6 35.9 52 36.3 36.5 36.6 36.3 35.9 35.6 35.0 37.3 38.6 39.0 39.8 40.0 36.5 35.9 37.0 53 40.2 40.4 39.6 40.7 37.2 40.9 41.1 40.9 41.5 41.2 40.4 40.0 39.1 38.1 40.4 41.0 41.0 39.1 54 37.9 38.0 40.4 37.7 37.5 37.7 37.9 37.9 37.9 37.9 38.4 39.0 39.5 37.9 37.7 37.9 38.9 55 40.4 38.2 40.9 41.9 42.4 43.0 43.1 43.4 43.4 43.7 44.4 44.5 44.7 41.0 42.8 43.5 44.5 43.0 56 44.9 44.6 44.6 44.9 44.5 44.1 42.8 44.5 45.5 45.9 45.5 46.2 44.7 44.5 44.3 46.0 45.9 57 46.5 46.4 44.9 45.8 45.6 45.7 46.0 46.0 45.6 44.9 43.9 43.0 46.3 45.7 45.9 44.0 58 42.2 41.3 40.8 45.5 40.2 40.6 41.6 42.2 43.1 43.5 44.0 45.3 45.3 41.5 40.8 42.9 59 46.0 44.9 46.9 47.6 42.6 48.6 69.3 49.4 48.2 46.6 46.5 46.2 46.5 49.3 46.8 49.1 47.1 50.6 47.3 60 50.2 47.7 49.7 49.3 49.3 48.7 48.5 48.4 47.9 47.9 47.2 46.3 50.2 49.1 48.3 47.1 48.8 61 46.4 46.3 46.6 47.5 48.3 48.9 49.5 50.0 49.9 50.9 51.7 52.1 46.4 48.3 49.8 62 51.7 52.5 51.5 52.8 49.1 52.9 52.8 52.7 53.2 53.3 53.6 53.7 53.9 53.9 52.3 52.8 53.4 63 54.3 54.9 53.8 55.3 53.2 55.8 56.4 56.6 56.4 56.5 57.1 57.5 57.7 57.6 54.8 56.3 " 58.1 56.6 58.5 57.6 58.5 56.3 59.5 59.8 60.0 60.4 60.8 61.0 60.2 62.0 62.7 58.4 59.8 60.7 65 63.4 63.8 61.6 64.7 60.1 64.9 65.5 66.0 66.6 66.9 67.0 67.7 68.0 68.8 64.0 65.5 66.8 68.2 66.1 " 69.5 70.0 70.9 71.0 71.7 72.0 72.4 72.5 73.2 73.7 73.2 73.3 70.1 71.6 67 73.7 72.7 72.8 73.4 72.4 72.0 73.1 72.5 72.5 72.3 73.7 73.6 74.2 75.2 76.0 73.0 72.7 68 76.0 73.2 76.2 75.1 76.5 73.5 76.6 77.4 77.7 77.6 77.8 78.1 78.3 79.3 79.5 76.2 77.2 77.8 " 80.0 80.5 81.2 79.0 77.6 80.9 80.6 81.3 81.8 82.0 81.9 82.0 81.2 81.0 80.6 80.9 70 79.5 81.9 81.4 79.4 79.3 81.2 79.1 79.0 78.8 79.0 78.8 78.3 76.7 76.2 78.0 79.4 79.0 78.7 77.0 78.5 71 78.6 78.4 78.4 78.8 79.2 79.5 79.3 78.8 80.1 80.7 81.1 82.0 78.5 72 79.2 83.8 84.4 79.4 81.3 85.1 79.6 86.5 86.3 86.5 86.4 87.6 88.5 89.8 90.9 91.8 84.4 86.4 73 91.8 93.1 87.5 93.1 90.8 87.3 93.4 93.8 94.5 95.1 95.1 95.8 96.1 96.2 94.7 92.7 93.9 74 93.3 95.3 93.0 95.7 94.4 93.4 93.2 94.3 94.6 94.2 93.9 94.2 93.6 90.9 87.1 93.2 94.1 75 84.8 94.1 83.5 90.5 95.0 82.0 82.7 82.5 83.6 84.1 85.6 86.4 86.9 87.7 88.4 83.4 82.9 85.3 87.6 84.8 76 89.3 90.9 90.7 91.1 92.1 92.2 92.7 93.2 93.5 93.9 95.4 96.2 90.3 91.8 77 96.5 97.2 93.2 95.2 92.6 98.0 99.0 99.6 100.4 100.7 101.0 101.4 101.8 102.1 102.1 97.3 78 101.6 99.7 101.6 103.0 101.0 102.0 100.0 105.5 105.8 106.9 107.5 107.7 108.3 109.2 109.9 110.8 102.1 106.1 79 110.3 110.9 107.9 110.0 111.2 106.5 109.9 110.9 110.9 110.5 110.2 110.4 111.0 111.0 111.0 110.8 80 111.3 110.6 111.4 111.4 110.4 111.0 110.7 109.1 106.2 105.0 104.8 106.3 107.7 108.5 110.7 111.0 111.4 106.8 106.3 110.1 108.6 81 111.0 111.2 111.6 110.6 111.2 112.0 113.4 112.8 111.5 110.4 109.0 107.4 111.2 111.3 82 105.4 112.5 108.9 107.0 105.8 111.0 104.5 103.6 103.0 102.5 102.0 101.3 100.5 100.6 100.5 106.1 83 103.7 102.5 103.3 104.2 102.0 100.6 105.6 103.1 106.9 107.8 109.8 111.6 113.7 114.4 114.8 115.5 103.3 84 106.8 118.5 119.3 119.9 111.7 120.5 114.9 121.0 109.2 121.9 122.8 123.0 122.4 122.1 122.7 122.7 119.3 or 122.7 121.1 121.3 122.7 123.4 121.6 122.5 121.4 123.6 121.4 124.4 124.1 123.6 124.8 125.6 125.1 103.5 124.0 126.7 123.8 Seasonally adjusted at annual rates Seasonally adjusted at amual rates 1987 1988 I 88 III 88 IV 88 I 89 1987 1988 I 88 III 88 IV 88 1 89 Billions of current dollars Billions of 1982 dollars Gross national product 4526.7 4864.3 4724.5 4909.0 4999.7 5116.8 3847.0 3996.1 3956.1 4009.4 4033.4 4088.2 Personal consumption expenditures 3012.1 3227.5 3128.1 3261.2 3326.4 3380.4 2521.0 2592.2 2559.8 2603.8 2626.2 2634.8 Durable goods 421.9 451.1 437.8 452.9 Motor vehicles and parts 464.0 461.5 390.9 409.7 195.8 208.6 202.2 401.1 210.2 213.2 410.4 416.5 413.1 208.2 170.4 Other Furniture and household equipment 177.7 148.3 173.5 159.0 154.7 178.7 159.5 179.6 173.5 162.3 167.8 151.0 160.8 77.8 157.3 83.6 81.0 161.0 163.0 83.2 168.9 88.5 85.5 69.6 71.2 70.3 70.7 73.9 70.7 Nondurable goods. 997.9 1046.9 1016.2 Food. 1060.8 1073.9 1093.7 890.5 899.6 892.7 526.4 551.5 535.9 904.5 907.4 558.9 911.8 Clothing and shoes 564.9 579.4 450.4 453.3 451.4 178.2 186.4 180.5 453.8 454.8 460.4 Gasoline and oil 188.4 193.6 193.3 160.5 161.1 159.6 77.0 164.2 78.8 76.3 164.1 80.5 163.9 Other nondurable goods. 79.5 78.3 98.3 99.6 98.8 216.3 230.2 223.5 99.5 100.3 233.0 98.7 235.9 242.7 181.3 185.6 183.0 187.0 188.2 188.8 Services 1592.3 1729.6 1674.1 Housing 1747.5 1788.5 1825.3 1239.5 1283.0 1265.9 467.7 501.6 1288.9 490.1 1302.2 506.0 1309.9 Household operation. 514.0 521.2 358.3 366.5 186.3 363.6 196.7 190.9 199.7 367.7 369.0 370.6 Electricity and gas 202.7 200.7 157.0 163.5 88.8 160.4 93.1 90.2 165.9 166.4 Other 94.6 96.7 163.6 93.2 79.0 97.5 82.3 80.5 103.6 100.7 83.8 Transportation. 105.1 84.2 106.0 80.8 107.4 78.0 106.2 117.2 111.3 81.2 80.0 Medical care 118.5 122.5 82.1 82.2 82.7 126.8 89.3 360.3 404.1 384.9 93.7 91.7 410.4 424.7 94.2 96.0 95.9 Other 439.3 268.2 471.8 282.0 510.0 276.9 497.0 283.4 512.9 288.2 524.8 292.9 537.4 366.6 377.3 373.2 377.7 382.6 387.0 Gross private domestic investment 712.9 766.5 763.4 772.5 772.0 815.9 674.8 721.8 728.9 726.1 717.1 751.4 Fixed investment 673.7 718.1 698.1 Nonresidential 722.8 737.2 754.2 640.4 679.3 446.8 488.4 471.5 662.9 493.7 500.6 686.6 688.0 697.6 Structures. 516.5 445.1 139.5 487.5 473.4 142.8 140.1 143.8 145.0 495.0 491.4 502.8 Nonresidential buildings, 149.4 125.5 125.1 124.0 125.8 125.5 127.9 excluding farm. 92.6 94.2 93.3 93.5 Public utilities 94.4 98.7 77.1 76.4 28.4 76.1 30.3 27.7 75.7 75.8 32.1 32.5 78.4 Mining exploration, shafts, and 32.9 25.7 26.6 24.6 28.1 28.2 28.3 wells. 13.9 14.5 15.1 Other 14.6 14.0 14.2 18.8 18.9 4.5 19.8 3.8 4.0 19.0 18.1 3.6 18.1 4.1 3.7 3.9 3.2 3.4 3.0 3.4 3.0 Producers' durable equipment 307.3 345.6 331.3 349.9 355.6 Information processing and related 367.0 319.6 362.4 349.4 369.2 365.9 374.9 equipment. 101.2 111.0 107.0 112.9 Industrial equipment. 112.4 114.0 139.4 162.7 70.6 155.9 82.9 77.2 167.4 162.4 Transportation and related 83.8 89.3 165.3 97.1 61.4 69.0 65.2 69.9 73.0 78.3 equipment 67.8 77.5 74.2 Other 79.0 78.1 77.3 59.1 66.7 67.6 74.2 64.9 73.0 68.0 74.1 65.7 75.8 64.9 78.7 59.7 64.0 63.4 63.9 64.8 66.4 Residential 226.9 229.7 226.6 Single family structures 229.1 236.6 237.7 195.2 191.8 114.5 117.1 189.5 116.5 191.6 115.4 196.6 120.4 194.8 Multifamily structures. 121.6 97.5 25.5 96.7 21.3 96.2 22.1 21.2 95.5 21.0 98.9 98.5 Other 22.5 21.7 17.6 87.0 18.2 91.3 87.9 17.5 17.3 92.6 18.2 95.2 93.6 76.0 77.6 75.2 78.6 80.4 78.2 Change in business inventories 39.2 48.4 Nonfarm 65.3 49.7 34.7 61.8 34.4 42.5 40.7 66.0 42.2 39.5 49.4 29.1 Manufacturing 41.9 53.8 44.6 43.3 36.9 40.0 6.1 51.9 10.6 15.4 40.4 37.6 41.1 Durable goods 6.9 13.8 7.0 5.2 9.6 4.6 15.8 9.7 5.7 9.6 11.2 Nondurable goods 8.5 13.8 6.2 13.0 4.1 8.8 1.5 8.7 1.0 8.0 5.8 12.3 11.3 Wholesale trade -1.6 0.0 -6.0 1.1 0.8 7.4 7.1 10.0 24.6 -2.3 -1.1 -5.1 Durable goods, 11.1 4.9 6.6 5.8 9.5 5.3 24.9 8.2 21.2 11.2 3.2 16.8 7.4 Nondurable goods 2.9 10.3 4.9 7.3 2.1 18.2 1.8 3.4 -5.7 15.1 2.9 8.8 Retail trade. 2.0 -3.7 0.9 21.3 2.2 6.7 11.3 1.2 -3.9 13.3 0.3 15.0 -1.4 Automotive 19.5 19.2 9.9 10.6 1.5 4.9 -11.6 11.7 12.9 10.1 16.7 Other durable goods 8.7 13.6 9.3 4.3 4.0 3.6 -10.1 8.7 4.6 4.4 7.5 3.5 11.5 Nondurable goods 0.4 3.7 6.7 3.2 4.2 2.7 8.2 4.0 Other -1.1 2.8 3.0 0.3 5.6 6.1 5.9 2.4 7.4 Farm 10.3 8.2 10.7 -1.0 10.8 2.4 4.8 10.2 6.7 -1.5 10.9 9.7 6.1 15.9 11.8 7.8 10.3 -9.8 10.9 18.5 -2.5 2.5 14.1 -0.8 -8.5 12.6 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1982 DOLLARS [Billions of 1982 dollars: quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gross private Exports and imports of Government purchases of domestic investment goods and services goods and services Personal Gross TO' Gross con- Change Federal domes- Period national sumption in Final Nonre- Resi- tic product expendi- busi- sidential dential Net Ex- State sales tures Imports Total Nation- and pur- fixed fixed ness exports ports Non- chases inven- Total al local defense tories defense 1980 3,187.1 2,000.4 379.2 137.0 -6.9 57.0 388.9 332.0 620.5 246.9 171.2 75.7 373.6 3,194.0 3,130. 1981 3,248.8 2,024.2 395.2 126.5 23.9 49.4 392.7 343.4 629.7 259.6 180.3 79.3 370.1 3,225.0 3,199. 1982 3,166.0 2,050.7 366.7 105.1 -24.5 26.3 361.9 335.6 641.7 272.7 193.8 78.9 369.0 3,190.5 3,139. 1983 3,279.1 2,146.0 361.2 149.3 -6.4 -19.9 348.1 368.1 649.0 275.1 206.9 68.2 373.9 3,285.5 3,299.1 1984 3,501.4 2,249.3 425.2 170.9 62.3 -84.0 371.8 455.8 677,7 290.8 218.5 72.3 387.0 3,439.1 3,585.4 1985 3,618.7 2,354.8 453.5 174.4 9.1 -104.3 367.2 471.4 731.2 326.0 237.2 88.8 405.2 3,609.6 3,723.0 1986 3,721.7 2,455.2 433.1 195.0 15.4 -137.5 378.4 515.9 760.5 333.4 251.4 82.0 427.1 3,706.3 3,859.3 1987 3,847.0 2,521.0 445.1 195.2 34.4 -128.9 427.8 556.7 780.2 339.0 264.9 74.1 441.2 3,812.6 3,975.5 1988 3,996.1 2,592.2 487.5 191.8 42.5 -100.2 504.8 605.0 782.3 328.7 261.8 66.9 453.6 3,953.6 4,096.3 EM 1982: IV 3,159.3 2,078.7 352.3 115.8 -59.3 11.7 336.0 324.3 660.1 289.5 201.4 88.2 370.6 3,218.6 3,147. 1983: IV 3,365.1 2,191.9 390.4 159.9 27.0 -46.2 355.5 401.6 642.2 266.0 211.6 54.4 376.2 3,338.1 3,411.: 1984: IV 3,535.2 2,281.1 444.4 169.6 41.7 -94.8 376.6 471.4 693.2 300.5 225.3 75.2 392.7 3,493.5 1985: IV 3,630.0 3,662.4 2,386.9 460.9 179.4 7.7 -125.3 367.4 492.6 752.7 340.6 241.4 99.2 412.1 3,654.7 3,787.6 1986: IV 3,734.7 2,486.2 427.3 199.7 -10.5 -142.4 387.8 530.2 774.5 340.5 253.1 87.4 434.0 3,745.2 3,877.2 1987: I 3,776.7 2,490.2 418.2 198.4 29.8 -132.8 394.9 527.7 772.9 334.0 257.0 77.0 438.9 II 3,746.9 3,909.7 3,823.0 2,516.6 434.8 197.6 27.8 -126.0 416.4 542.3 772.2 332.1 264.8 67.3 440.1 Ш 3,795.2 3,949. 3,865.3 2,545.2 462.8 192.1 13.0 -130.7 440.9 571.6 782.9 342.1 269.5 72.6 440.8 3,852.2 3,996. IV 3,923.0 2,531.7 464.8 192.7 67.1 -126.0 459.2 585.2 792.6 347.7 268.2 79.5 444.9 3,855.9 4,049. PR 1988: I 3,956.1 2,559.8 473.4 189.5 66.0 -109.0 486.2 595.1 776.4 327.8 264.6 63.2 448.7 3,890.1 4,065.: II 3,985.2 2,579.0 490.2 189.6 35.3 -92.6 496.9 589.5 783.8 331.6 263.6 67.9 452.2 III 3,949.9 4,077.5 4,009.4 2,603.8 495.0 191.6 39.5 -93.9 514.0 607.9 773.5 320.1 256.4 63.7 453.4 3,969.9 IV 4,103.4 4,033.4 2,626.2 491.4 196.6 29.1 -105.4 522.1 627.4 795.5 335.5 262.5 72.9 460.0 4,004.4 4,138.- 1 GNP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT PRI [1982=100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Personal consumption Gross private Exports and imports of Government purchases of goods and expenditures domestic investment goods and services services Gross Period national MO product Total Durable Nondura- Nonresi- Federal Services goods ble goods dential Residen- Exports State tial fixed Imports fixed National Total Non- and local defense defense 1980 85.7 86.6 89.2 89.4 83.9 85.1 89.4 90.2 96.0 84.3 1981 83.4 86.4 86.2 94.0 94.6 95.7 96.9 92.6 93.4 96.6 97.5 101.6 93.3 92.9 1982 94.3 93.4 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1983 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 103.9 104.1 102.1 102.1 106.2 98.8 102.2 101.3 97.4 1984 103.1 103.6 101.4 104.7 107.7 108.1 103.8 105.0 111.6 97.9 106.0 103.2 97.1 1985 106.8 107.2 105.5 109.9 110.9 111.6 104.8 107.5 116.8 97.7 108.3 101.0 95.2 1986 109.0 109.2 108.2 114.9 113.9 114.3 105.6 107.3 122.4 100.2 111.1 100.0 1987 93.6 109.8 110.4 108.2 FEI 118.2 117.7 119.5 107.9 112.1 128.5 100.4 116.2 100.0 99.0 1988 112.7 111.5 117.0 123.0 121.7 124.5 110.1 116.4 134.8 100.2 119.7 102.9 101.5 115.9 114.0 123.4 128.7 1982: IV 101.7 101.8 100.7 101.0 102.7 100.7 99.1 100.0 99.3 1983: IV 101.3 102.0 99.5 102.2 105.4 105.7 103.1 103.1 108.3 98.3 103.1 102.6 97.2 1984: IV 103.8 104.7 100.3 106.3 109.0 109.3 104.1 105.8 113.5 97.9 107.2 1985: IV 102.4 96.2 108.5 108.3 108.9 111.7 INT 112.2 113.1 104.7 108.7 119.0 97.9 109.0 100.5 95.9 1986: IV 110.6 111.3 108.8 116.5 115.3 115.7 106.2 107.8 124.6 101.6 112.4 99.3 94.2 107.7 109.9 101.5 119.7 1987: I 116.3 117.3 106.7 109.8 126.1 101.1 113.4 100.1 II 97.5 111.6 111.8 110.9 121.0 117.3 118.9 107.5 111.9 127.6 100.8 115.2 100.1 III 99.4 113.7 111.3 122.9 122.3 118.2 120.2 108.6 112.9 129.1 99.9 117.7 99.9 IV 98.9 112.9 111.3 119.0 123.9 118.9 121.5 108.9 113.7 131.0 99.8 118.7 100.1 100.0 112.6 111.6 116.0 124.9 1988: I 119.4 122.2 109.1 113.8 132.2 99.6 119.5 100.3 II 100.8 115.2 112.8 125.5 126.5 121.0 123.9 109.6 116.0 134.0 99.5 119.5 102.1 III 101.4 115.3 113.4 122.7 128.1 122.4 125.2 110.4 117.3 135.6 99.7 119.6 104.3 IV 101.3 114.9 114.8 115.2 129.6 124.0 126.7 111.4 118.3 137.3 101.9 120.4 105.0 102.6 118.1 115.0 129.3 130.7 Source: Department of Commerce, Burean of Economic Analysis. 38 2 CEA Indicators DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Real per capita disposable personal income rose in the fourth quarter of 1988. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 4,000 4,000 3,800 3,800 3,400 3,400 3,000 DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME 3,000 2,600 2,600 2,200 SAVING PERSONAL OUTLAYS 2,200 1,800 1,800 1,400 1,400 DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 16,000 16,000 PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME 14,000 14,000 12,000 CURRENT DOLLARS 12,000 10,000 10,000 1982 DOLLARS 8,000 8,000 6,000 6,000 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Dispos- Per capita Per capita personal Percent Less: Population, Equals: able disposable personal consumption Personal Personal change in Saving as including Period Disposable Less: Equals: personal income expenditures income tax and real per percent of Armed Personal Personal personal income in capital disposable Forces nontax income outlays 1 saving 1982 payments dollars Current 1982 Current 1982 disposable personal abroad (billions) dollars dollars dollars dollars personal income (thou- income sands) 1 Billions of dollars Dollars Percent 1980 2,258.4 340.5 1,917.9 1,781.1 136.8 2,214.3 8,421 9,722 7,607 8,783 -1.1 7.1 227,754 1981 2,520.9 393.3 2,127.6 1,968.1 159.4 2,248.6 9,243 9,769 8,320 8,794 .5 7.5 230,182 1982 2,670.8 409.3 2,261.4 2,107.5 153.9 2,261.5 9,724 9,724 8,818 8,818 -.5 6.8 232,549 1983 2,838.6 410.5 2,428.1 2,297.4 130.6 2,331.9 10,340 9,930 9,515 9,139 2.1 5.4 234,329 1984 3,108.7 440.2 2,668.6 2,504.5 164.1 2,469.8 11,257 10,419 10,253 9,489 4.9 6.1 237,051 1985 3,325.3 486.6 2,838.7 2,713.3 125.4 2,542.8 11,861 10,625 10,985 9,839 2.0 4.4 1986 239,322 3,531.1 511.4 3,019.6 2,898.0 121.7 2,640.9 12.496 10,929 11,618 10,160 2.9 4.0 1987 241,650 3,780.0 570.3 3,209.7 3,105.5 104.2 2,686.3 13,157 11,012 12,348 10,334 .8 3.2 1988 243,944 4,062.1 590.3 3,471.S 3,327.5 144.3 2,788.3 14.103 11,326 13,110 10.530 2.9 4.2 246,179 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1982: IV 2,729.2 411.1 2,318.1 2,174.9 143.1 2,276.1 9,929 9,749 9,068 1983: IV 8,904 1.2 6.2 233.466 2,041.8 413.9 2,527.9 2,382.5 145.4 2,392.7 10,725 10,151 9,825 9,299 9.1 5.3 1984: IV 235,707 3,188.3 459.7 2,728.6 2,571.3 157.3 2,496.3 11.467 10.491 1985: IV 10,479 9,587 1.7 5.8 237,946 3,399.1 499.6 2,899.5 2,787.7 111.7 2,562.8 12,068 10,667 11,240 9,935 3.3 3.9 1986: IV 240,257 3,599.6 534.9 3,064.7 2,967.9 96.8 2,649.4 12,635 10,923 11,857 10,250 -.2 3.2 242,557 1987: I 3.676.1 532.2 3,143.9 3,013.1 130.8 2,679.6 12.934 11,024 12,020 10.245 II 3.8 4.2 243,077 3,736.1 582.0 3,154.1 3,084.7 69.5 2,652.8 12,947 10,889 12,282 10,330 -4.8 2.2 III 243,618 3,801.0 576.2 3,224.9 3,152.3 72.6 2,683.9 13,204 10,989 12,521 10,421 3.7 IV 2.3 244,236 3,906.8 591.0 3,315.8 3,171.8 144.0 2,728.9 13,543 11,145 12,564 10,340 5.8 4.3 2'4,845 1988: I 3,951.4 575.8 3,375.6 3,225.7 149.9 2,762.3 13,760 11.260 12,751 10,435 4.2 II 4.4 245.318 4,022.4 601.0 3,421.5 3,293.6 127.8 2,762.2 13.919 11,237 12,996 10,492 -.8 III 3.7 245,806 4,094.0 586.5 3,507.5 3,361.8 145.7 2,800.4 14,231 11,362 13,232 10,564 4.5 IV 4.2 246,469 4,180.5 598.0 3,582.5 3,428.7 153.8 2,828.4 14,497 11.445 13,461 10,627 3.0 4.3 247,123 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business. and person- al transier payments to foreigners (net). 1 Annual data are averages of quarterly data. which are averages for the period. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Burrau of the Census). 1989:IN 616.0 3,696.4 3,484.5 14,925/11,633 13649 10,639 6.7 5.7 247,663 6 04/26/89 16:14 EXEC SEC P.01 So let's not hunt for ways to wring another dollar in taxes out of our economy -- let's concentrate on creating conditions for continued growth. That's why I've called on Congress to restore the capital-gains differential -- reducing the maximum tax rate to 15 percent. In 1990 alone, this step would bring in an extra 4.8 billion dollars, according to Treasury estimates. That's the lion's share of the 5.3 billion dollars we need in the way of "new revenues" under our budget agreement -- and that 4.8 billion dollars is on the conservative side since it leaves out the additional revenues due to the increased economic activity spurred by the cut. NOTE: Changes submitted for page 5, paragraph 2. Commerce Dept. The Chamber has been very active on parental leave, and it would be nice to recognize their efforts and bring child care to their attention through language along the following lines after the text on minimum wage. "Federal intervention to mandate benefits also any will drive up employer costs, and I share the concern that you have expressed so actively and effectively on legislation to mandate medical and parental leave. I also believe strongly that new funds for child care should go directly to parents to enhance their choice of child care arrangements. Grants to States which involve federally-mandated standards, prohibitions against religiously- affiliated care, and biases against care by relatives, friends and neighbors will only drive up costs and reduce the supply of child care, making it more difficult for your employees to balance the competing demands of work and family life." 030268SS Document No. WHITE HOUSE STAFFING MEMORANDUM 89 DATE: 9 4/25/89 ACTION/CONCURRENCE/COMMENT DUE BY: 4/26/89 c.o.b. SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS: U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE ACTION FYI ACTION FYI VICE PRESIDENT MCCLURE SUNUNU NEWMAN SCOWCROFT PORTER DARMAN STUDDERT BATES UNTERMEYER ROGERS BREEDEN 1 WINSTON CARD CICCONI PINKERTON DEMAREST BOSKIN FITZWATER GRAY HAGIN REMARKS: Please forward any comments directly to Chriss Winston, Rm. 122, x2930, no later than c.o.b. Wednesday, April 26, 1989, with an info copy to my office. Thank you. RESPONSE: see changes James W. Cicconi Assistant to the President and Deputy to the Chief of Staff Ext. 2702 McGroarty/Simon April 25, 1989 1833 APR 25 6:45 pm Draft 3 PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS: U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON, D.C. MAY 1, 1989 [Introductory remarks Acknowledgements of outgoing Chmn. Bill Kanagka, incoming Chmn. John Clendenin, Pres. Dick Lesher ] I want to thank the Chamber of Commerce for providing me a chance to deliver a May Day message, American-style. On May Day, I always think about that celebration in the Soviet Union. All those red banners The big military parade Even the Economic Planning Ministry had a unit in the parade -- two hundred economists marching along yelling, "Mayday! Mayday!" Today, that is beginning to change. Even the socialist world is beginning to see that socialism isn't just another economic system -- it's the death of economics. Nations the world over are coming to recognize that free enterprise is the wave of the future. That's a promising forecast for prosperity - - and for world peace. In the United States, the single most significant economic Weisher we have enjoyd indicator of this decade is up one, as of today: today begins the 78th months of uninterrupted economic growth in the American 78 full the Lorgest peacetime expansion economy history Without a doubt, this long-running economic expansion has been good for American business, and for the American worker. In the past Kearly those 77 months, we've added -over twenty million new jobs -- and more Americans have moved up on the pay scale. Since 1982, the weichers. number of jobs paying less than $5 dollars an hour is down 30%, while jobs paying $10 or more dollars an hour have increased by 80%. Unemployment is at its lowest point in the past 15 years. 40% In those 77 months / America's industrial output is up 33% 29% overall growth, up 26%. For those with an eye on the industrial output international competition, that's a more rapid rate of growth than Japan reports for that same period, and it's double that of Europe. And the expansion has been just as good to the average my American family. Real Per capita personal disposable income is up* 17% -- and nearly 2090 that's take home "after tax" pay, adjusted for inflation. In we 1987, median family income reached a new high -- and it's expert it to continue continued to climb since then. That's quite an economic success story. Our challenge now is to keep it going. We can -- and we will. We've all heard the naysayers. I think there are a few out there whose predictions of economic disaster are now in their 78 76th straight month The naysayers are wrong -- but why? What they've underestimated is the resilience, the remarkable responsiveness of the free enterprise system. You can focus on government so long, that you forget that it's the private sector that's home to the innovation and economic creativity that powers this expansion. 3 I've been a small businessman myself, starting out with an idea, and building it into a business. I know the risks -- and the rewards: the payoff in pride when you succeed Actually, not that much has changed: I've still got something in common with a lot of small businessmen in America. I also work out of my house Entrepreneurs know this simple truth: nothing wagered, nothing won. That's why I want a government that prompts entrepreneurs to take risks -- not a government that forces them to take refuge. That doesn't mean government's only job is simply to stand back and step out of the way. There's plenty for the government to do, to make sure commerce is free and fair, and to maintain a climate where free enterprise can take place and prosper. And today, the federal government's number one economic priority is dealing with the deficit. We've made a good start. The budget agreement Congress and the my Administration concluded two weeks ago will keep federal spending deficit below the Gramm-Rudman target. And we haven't sacrificed our social or national security responsibilities in the process. The budget level we've agreed on will allow us to discharge the critical duties of government. We'll be able to provide for our national security, meet the needs of the disadvantaged, and accelerate the funding of several high- priority programs. 4 Our agreement sends a signal -- to the American people, and to our trading partners: we're serious about getting that deficit down. And the deficit is coming down, not only in straight dollar Byerel Ilhave terms, but as a percentage of our annual GNP. We ve cut the 6.3 3 deficit in half, from a high of 5.7% of GNP in 1986, to an estimated projected 2.9% in 1990. 3.1 89 (or a projected 1.890 in 1990). One word more about the budget agreement for 1990. We've agreed to $5.3 billion dollars in "new revenues" as part of the deal. You're going to hear a lot about those "new revenues" in the months ahead -- so let me say my piece now. First of all, let me assure you: "new revenues" isn't a code word for new taxes. I've given my word many times, and I'll give it again today: no new taxes means just that. And I'll make it so clear that even the duck hunters among us will understand: we won't raise taxes with word games. We all know a tax when we see one -- and you won't see any in the agreement I've signed onto. I have news for the castor-oil club -- the gang that's trying hard to get us to swallow new taxes. That's bad medicine for the economy. The deficit exists because we over-spend -- not because we're under-taxed. Let me tell you what my favorite source of new revenue is. We don't have to raise tax rates -- we have to release the energies of free enterprise. 5 In a growing economy, tax revenues will take care of themselves. In 1990 alone -- thanks to expanding economic more than activity -- the Treasury will take in/$80 billion dollars in increased revenues, not through higher taxes, but under the existing tax structure. That's why I've called on Congress to cut the capital gains Dale capital gains realization 3080 tax. In 1990 alone, increased economic activity spurred by a cut wricher 5873 in capital gains would bring an extra $4.8 billion dollars into And that doesn't count increased Economic activity the federal treasury. That's the lion's share of the $5.3 the spurred lig Tax rate billion dollars we need in the way of "new revenues" under our budget agreement -- and my estimate is on the conservative side. So let's not hunt for ways to wring another dollar in taxes out of our economy -- let's concentrate on creating conditions for continued growth. Let's take a look at what our competitors are doing. Canada taxes capital gains at about half the rate that we do. So do Sweden and France. Japan's rate? A scant 5%. West Germany exempts all long-term capital gains from any tax whatever -- and among the newly industrialized economies of the Pacific rim, five out of six have no capital gains tax at all. Among our competitors, those low rates contribute to low capital costs. Cutting our own capital gains rates would encourage productive investment -- in addition to generating the "new revenues" we need to meet our deficit reduction agreement. I think the case for a capital gains cut is a strong one, Dale 3080 The estimate of increased revenues of $4.8 billion is correct, but it is not from increased economic activity. 6 but there are several other economic issues I want to discuss here today. First, a pressing problem with important consequents for to our long term alale 3080 fiscal health: the S&L situation. This Administration recognized the immediate need to take action to stabilize the S&L system. Less than three weeks after taking office, we sent to the Congress a comprehensive S&L reform plan -- one designed to stop the dollar drain and deal with insolvent thrifts, and restore confidence in the S&L system. The Senate passed my package with a resounding majority: 91 to 8. I urge the House to move quickly to give us the tools we need to repair the S&L system by passing my bill quickly --- with its central provisions intact. And I have a second message for the Congress, as it debates an increase in the minimum wage. I've indicated my support for increasing the minimum wage over three years to $4.25 an hour. I also want to establish a six-month training wage for new workers at the old $3.35 rate, and expand the exemption from minimum wage requirements for all small businesses with annual sales under half a million dollars. It's time for those who want a higher wage to move beyond the rhetoric, and take a look at the consequences. We all know the studies that show a 10% increase in the minimum wage will result in a loss of one hundred to two hundred thousand jobs. What happens when minimum-wage workers open that pay envelope expecting a fatter paycheck -- and find a pink slip 7 instead? An irresponsible increase in the minimum wage will cost jobs, as employers cut back to compensate for increased costs. $4.25 is as far as I can go -- it's my first and final offer. Finally, I'll close with a brief comment on an issue I know is vital to those of you here today -- vital, in fact, to all Americans in our evolving economy: International trade. The global economy is a fundamental fact of economic life. It is no longer possible to draw a sharp line between domestic and international markets. This Administration is committed to securing a truly free world trading system -- and we can't have free trade without fair trade. This is no time to wall off the American economy, in hopes of securing U.S. companies against foreign competition. It is high time to work with our trade partners to lower the barriers to free and fair trade, for the benefit of all alike. You have my word that the United States government will seek with added energy to open up foreign markets now closed to U.S. exports. Protectionism runs dead against a global trend towards more open and extensive commerce between nations -- and I'm dead set against protectionism. [pause] The Chamber of Commerce has always stood for economic freedom -- and I know you share my view that there is no surer route to prosperity and progress than the system of free enterprise. 8 The message of the past 77 months is clear: We can keep the placetime economy strong, sustain the longest/ expansion in American history, and ensure America a productive and prosperous future -- provided that government policies preserve the greatest possible freedom for American enterprise to innovate, create and compete. Thank you. 030268SS Document No. action Peter CCMJB WHITE HOUSE STAFFING MEMORANDUM TGM JBT 4/25/89 DATE: ACTION/CONCURRENCE/COMMENT due BY: 4/26/89 c.o.b. PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS: U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE SUBJECT: ACTION FYI ACTION FYI VICE PRESIDENT MCCLURE SUNUNU NEWMAN SCOWCROFT PORTER DARMAN STUDDERT BATES UNTERMEYER ROGERS BREEDEN WINSTON CARD CICCONI PINKERTON BOSKIN DEMAREST FITZWATER GRAY HAGIN REMARKS: Please forward any comments directly to Chriss Winston, Rm. 122, x2930, no later than c.o.b. Wednesday, April 26, 1989, with an info copy to my office. Thank you. RESPONSE: OK, with suggested changes. James W, Cicconi Assistant to the President and Deputy to the Chief of Staff Ext. 2702 McGroarty/Simon April 25, 1989 27 7:2 6:45 pm Draft 3 PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS: U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON, D.C. MAY 1, 1989 [Introductory remarks Acknowledgements of outgoing Chmn. Bill Kanagka, incoming Chmn. John Clendenin, Pres. Dick Lesher ] I want to thank the Chamber of Commerce for providing me a chance to deliver a May Day message, American-style. On May Day, I always think about that celebration in the Soviet Union. All those red banners The big military parade Even the Economic Planning Ministry had a unit in the parade -- two hundred economists marching along yelling, "Mayday! Mayday!" Today, that is beginning to change. Even the socialist world is beginning to see that socialism isn't just another economic system -- it's the death of economics. Nations the world over are coming to recognize that free enterprise is the wave of the future. That's a promising forecast for prosperity - - and for world peace. In the United States, the single most significant economic real for one quarter GNP fell indicator of this decade is up one, as of today: today begins 8 in 1986 the current economic expansion the 77th month of uninterrupted economic growth in the American economy. Without a doubt, this long-running economic expansion has been good for American business, and for the American worker. III From the through March (we should surpass that mile stone when we get the nearly. data for April this Friday) those M months, we've added ever twenty million new jobs and more Americans have moved up on the pay scale. Since 1982, the 25 number of jobs paying less than $5 dollars an hour is down 30%, while jobs paying $10 or more dollars an hour have increased by 95 80%. Unemployment is at its lowest point in the past 15 years. In those 77 months, America's industrial output is up 33% -- Durway this expansion international competition, wore thandoubleghe that s/a more rate rapid of growth rate of of growth Europe overall growth, up 26%. For those with an eye on the and about the some as Japan during The same period. than Japan reports for that same period, and it's double that of Europe. And the expansion has been just as good to the average 19 American family. Per capita personal income is up 17% -- and that's take home "after tax" pay, adjusted for inflation. In unable to 1987, median family income reached a new high and it's nox continued to climb since then. data for 1988 That's quite an economic success story. Our challenge now is to keep it going. We can -- and we will. We've all heard the naysayers. I think there are a few out there whose predictions of economic disaster are now in their 76th straight month The naysayers are wrong -- but why? What they've underestimated is the resilience, the remarkable responsiveness of the free enterprise system. You can focus on government so long, that you forget that it's the private sector that's home to the innovation and economic creativity that powers this expansion. 3 I've been a small businessman myself, starting out with an idea, and building it into a business. I know the risks -- and the rewards: the payoff in pride when you succeed Actually, not that much has changed: I've still got something in common with a lot of small businessmen in America. I also work out of my house Entrepreneurs know this simple truth: nothing wagered, nothing won. That's why I want a government that prompts entrepreneurs to take risks -- not a government that forces them to take refuge. That doesn't mean government's only job is simply to stand back and step out of the way. There's plenty for the government to do, to make sure commerce is free and fair, and to maintain a climate where free enterprise can take place and prosper. And today, the federal government's number one economic priority is dealing with the deficit. We've made a good start. The budget agreement Congress and my Administration concluded two weeks ago will keep federal spending below the Gramm-Rudman target. And we haven't sacrificed our social or national security responsibilities in the process. The budget level we've agreed on will allow us to discharge the critical duties of government. We'll be able to provide for our national security, meet the needs of the disadvantaged, and accelerate the funding of several high- priority programs. 4 Our agreement sends a signal -- to the American people, and to our trading partners: we're serious about getting that deficit down. And the deficit is coming down, not only in straight dollar terms, but as a percentage of our annual GNP. We've cut the by two-thinds 6.3 3 deficit in half, from a high of 5.7% of GNP in 1986, to a 1,7% projected 2.9% in 1990. One word more about the budget agreement for 1990. We've agreed to $5.3 billion dollars in "new revenues" as part of the deal. You're going to hear a lot about those "new revenues" in the months ahead -- so let me say my piece now. First of all, let me assure you: "new revenues" isn't a code word for new taxes. I've given my word many times, and I'll give it again today: no new taxes means just that. And I'll make it so clear that even the duck hunters among us will understand: we won't raise taxes with word games. We all know a tax when we see one -- and you won't see any in the agreement I've signed onto. I have news for the castor-oil club -- the gang that's trying hard to get us to swallow new taxes. That's bad medicine for the economy. The deficit exists because we over-spend -- not because we're under-taxed. Let me tell you what my favorite source of new revenue is. We don't have to raise tax rates -- we have to release the energies of free enterprise. 5 In a growing economy, tax revenues will take care of themselves. In 1990 alone -- thanks to expanding economic activity -- the Treasury will take in $80 billion dollars in increased revenues, not through higher taxes, but under the existing tax structure. That's why I've called on Congress to cut the capital gains tax. In 1990 alone, increased economic activity spurred by a cut in capital gains would bring an extra $4.8 billion dollars into the federal treasury. That's the lion's share of the $5.3 billion dollars we need in the way of "new revenues" under our budget agreement -- and my estimate is on the conservative side. So let's not hunt for ways to wring another dollar in taxes out of our economy -- let's concentrate on creating conditions for continued growth. Let's take a look at what our competitors are doing. Canada taxes capital gains at about half the rate that we do. So do Sweden and France. Japan's rate? A scant 5%. West Germany exempts all long-term capital gains from any tax whatever -- and among the newly industrialized economies of the Pacific rim, five out of six have no capital gains tax at all. Among our competitors, those low rates contribute to low capital costs. Cutting our own capital gains rates would encourage productive investment -- in addition to generating the "new revenues" we need to meet our deficit reduction agreement. I think the case for a capital gains cut is a strong one, 6 but there are several other economic issues I want to discuss here today. First, a pressing problem with important to our long term fiscal health: the S&L situation. This Administration recognized the immediate need to take action to stabilize the S&L system. Less than three weeks after taking office, we sent to Congress a comprehensive S&L reform plan -- one designed to stop the dollar drain and deal with insolvent thrifts, and restore confidence in the S&L system. The Senate passed my package with a resounding majority: 91 to 8. I urge the House to move quickly to give us the tools we need to repair the S&L system by passing my bill quickly -- with its central provisions intact. And I have a second message for Congress, as it debates an increase in the minimum wage. I've indicated my support for increasing the minimum wage over three years to $4.25 an hour. I also want to establish a six-month training wage for new workers at the old $3.35 rate, and expand the exemption from minimum wage requirements for all small businesses with annual sales under half a million dollars. It's time for those who want a higher wage to move beyond the rhetoric, and take a look at the consequences. We all know the studies that show a 10% increase in the minimum wage will result in a loss of one hundred to two hundred thousand jobs. What happens when minimum-wage workers open that pay envelope expecting a fatter paycheck -- and find a pink slip 7 instead? An irresponsible increase in the minimum wage will cost jobs, as employers cut back to compensate for increased costs. $4.25 is as far as I can go -- it's my first and final offer. Finally, I'll close with a brief comment on an issue I know is vital to those of you here today -- vital, in fact, to all Americans in our evolving economy: International trade. The global economy is a fundamental fact of economic life. It is no longer possible to draw a sharp line between domestic and international markets. This Administration is committed to securing a truly free world trading system -- and we can't have free trade without fair trade. This is no time to wall off the American economy, in hopes of securing U.S. companies against foreign competition. It is high time to work with our trade partners to lower the barriers to free and fair trade, for the benefit of all alike. You have my word that the United States government will seek with added energy to open up foreign markets now closed to U.S. exports. Protectionism runs dead against a global trend towards more open and extensive commerce between nations -- and I'm dead set against protectionism. [pause] The Chamber of Commerce has always stood for economic freedom -- and I know you share my view that there is no surer route to prosperity and progress than the system of free enterprise. 8 The message of the past 77 months is clear: We can keep the economy strong, sustain the longest expansion in American history, and ensure America a productive and prosperous future -- provided that government policies preserve the greatest possible freedom for American enterprise to innovate, create and compete. Thank you. BUILDING A BETTER AMERICA APRIL 24, 1989 SUMMARY Since President Bush took office, he has addressed a series of tough issues, meeting both urgent short-term priorities and working toward solutions to the long-term challenges facing the nation. Relying on basic American principles -- traditional family values, choice, accountability, fairness, excellence, peace through strength -- the President is building a better America by: 1. Keeping the economy strong -- with no new taxes 2. Seizing international opportunities for peace 3. Investing in our future 4. Working for a kinder, gentler America Keeping the Economy Strong -- With No New Taxes Record economic growth -- 76 months of economic expansion. Nearly 20 million new jobs have been created, and the unemployment rate is now at its lowest since December, 1973. Real median family income set a new record in 1987 and continues to grow. A comprehensive budget proposal sent to the Congress and an unprecedented bipartisan agreement with the Congress reached on the budget reducing the Federal budget deficit, meeting Gramm-Rudman-Hollings deficit reduction targets with no new taxes A comprehensive plan to rescue the Savings and Loan industry which has cleared the Senate An initiative for cutting the capital gains tax rate sent to the Congress to encourage investment and create jobs and opportunity In the Uruguay Round of GATT trade negotiations, substantial progress has been made by the Administration toward reducing trade barriers to U.S. exports A plan for raising the minimum wage to $4.25 coupled with a six month training wage Seizing International Opportunities for Peace The signing of a bipartisan accord with the Congress on Central America The initiation of a dialogue with the Soviet Union. Secretary Baker met with Foreign Minister Shevardnadze in March, and these talks will continue when the two meet next in Moscow An eight-step program to support Polish political and economic reforms Intensive Presidential consultations with the leaders of 34 nations, including 18 bilateral meetings held during the Asia trip A plan to strengthen the international response to Third World debt Comprehensive foreign policy and defense strategy reviews initiated Investing in Our Future Improving Education A comprehensive legislative package for educational excellence sent to the Congress Protecting our Environment A multi-agency commitment to oversee the Alaskan oil spill cleanup effort The development of Clean Air Act revisions, with provisions for control of acid rain and other problems An announcement of an effort to seek legislative authority to ban hazardous waste exports, where agreements do not exist for their safe disposal A call for the worldwide phaseout of CFCs by the year 2000 A plan of action to identify and prioritize clean up of defense and civilian radioactive waste A legislative proposal, already enacted by the House, to deregulate natural gas by January 1, 1993 Fighting Drugs and Crime A major $6 billion anti-drug abuse initiative focusing on education, rehabilitation, interdiction and enforcement Action in response to the drug emergency in the District of Columbia, including enforcement support, more prison space, and stepped-up efforts in prevention and rehabilitation A temporary suspension of imports of certain types of semi- automatic weapons Action to modify lease and grievance procedures to facilitate eviction of those involved in drug related criminal activity from public housing New aviation security initiatives announced by the Secretary of Transportation, to counteract terrorism in the skies Working for a Kinder, Gentler America Child Care A child care initiative to give low and moderate income working families greater choice and flexibility in meeting their child care needs Legislation to increase the FY 1990 authorization for Head Start by $250 million to help up to 95,000 more 4-year olds National Service The creation of the Office of National Service in the White House, and leadership in the Administration's initiative on volunteerism Welfare Reform and Medicaid Quick action to implement major welfare reform legislation that will help reduce long-term welfare dependency Expansion of the Medicaid program to serve more pregnant women, infants, and children Homelessness An initiative to provide over $1 billion in federal resources to help end homelessness and pave the way to jobs, permanent housing and health care Ethics and Civil Rights A comprehensive ethics proposal to make uniform the standards among all three branches of government Whistleblower protection legislation, now law, to strengthen the rights of those who report misdeeds and mismanagement Enforcement of the new Fair Housing Laws, to fully prosecute those discriminating in housing opportunities on the basis of religion, race, age, ethnicity, handicap or family status Support by the Department of Justice for the objectives of the Hate Crimes Bill, which provides for the collection of data about crimes motivated by race, religion, ethnicity or sexual orientation President Bush has set an agenda for the country. He is orienting us as a nation toward the future -- building a better America -- keeping America strong and at peace. Leadership is the ability to see the shape of things to come, to address tomorrow's challenges today. George Bush is preparing the nation for the 21st Century. BUILDING A BETTER AMERICA APRIL 24, 1989 KEEPING THE ECONOMY STRONG -- WITH NO NEW TAXES Keeping our nation's economy strong is the key to managing change successfully. The news is good: O Record expansion: We are now in the 76th month of the current economic expansion. Job creation: Nearly 20 million new jobs have been created, and the unemployment rate has declined to 4.9 percent, a 15 year low. During this decade, America has created more new jobs than Japan and the nations of Western Europe combined. Record income: Per capita personal income, after taxes and inflation, has risen 17 percent during the expansion; real income of the median family -- the family exactly in the middle of the income distribution -- set a new record in 1987 and continues to grow. Industrial output: During this expansion, American industrial output has grown 33 percent compared with overall economic growth of 26 percent. This is double Europe's growth rate in industrial output and even slightly more than Japan's rate of increase during the same period. O Inflation under control: We have had seven straight years of consumer price inflation under 5 percent. The Administration supports the Federal Reserve's efforts to restrain inflation while maintaining real economic growth. The Administration and the Fed share the goal of ultimately achieving price stability -- zero inflation. ACTION BY THE ADMINISTRATION: Presenting a budget: The President put forth a budget which addresses our fundamental obligations for protection of national security and support of the needy, while providing sufficient funds to advance high-priority initiatives. The President's budget restrains overall growth of spending and meets the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings targets -- with no new taxes. O Reaching a budget agreement with Congress: The President and Congress announced on April 14 a budget plan to reduce the estimated FY 1990 deficit by about $64 billion below FY 1989. The deficit will be reduced to $99.4 billion, as required by the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings l'aw. This is the 2 first budget agreement reached before the start of the budget year and not framed in the context of crisis. Savings and Loan reform: The Administration has transmitted the "Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery and Enforcement Act of 1989". to Congress, which has already cleared the Senate. The proposal includes provisions to: -- Assure financial integrity of deposit insurance by raising the annual premium rate for both commercial banks and S&Ls. -- Resolve the status of existing insolvent banks in an orderly fashion. -- Improve supervisory control by bringing S&Ls up to the same standards applied to commercial banks. -- Enhance enforcement of bank fraud provisions. Capital gains tax rate cut: The re-establishment of a capital gains differential will encourage capital formation, and investment and stimulate job creation. The President has sent to the Congress a proposal which includes: -- A 45 percent capital gains exclusion for qualified capital gains, making the maximum capital gains tax rate 15 percent. -- A phased-in increase in the qualifying holding period from one year to three years. -- Families earning under $20,000 would be exempted from the tax. Minimum wage proposal: The President is seeking to minimize the adverse economic impact of an across-the-board increase in the minimum wage, and to keep job opportunities available for youth and those seeking to enter the economic mainstream. His proposal is: -- A 27 percent increase in the minimum wage over three years to $4.25 for most workers. -- Maintaining the current $3.35 minimum for all new employees of a firm on the job for less than six months, regardless of age or previous employment. -- An increase in the small business exemption to include all firms, not just retail and service establishments, with gross sales under $500,000. -- An increase in the tip credit from 40 percent to 50 percent. The President's pledge to veto an excessive increase in the minimum wage has gained strong support in both Houses of Congress. International Trade: The Administration broke a logjam in international trade talks which had existed since late 1988. In breaking the stalemate, the United States advanced its proposal to correct and prevent trade distortions in agriculture. This clears the way for negotiations that -- if 3 successful over the next 20 months -- will greatly expand rules governing free and open trade. Agricultural initiatives: -- The announcement of additional advance deficiency payments of 10 percent available to producers of wheat, feed grains, rice and upland cotton. -- The establishment of a top-level Working Group on Rural Development to focus on an action-oriented agenda. 4 SEIZING INTERNATIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PEACE The Administration's policy of peace through strength is working. As he prepares for both the 40th Anniversary of NATO in Brussels and the economic summit in Paris, President Bush has undertaken a number of foreign policy initiatives to maintain America's position of world leadership. ACTION BY THE ADMINISTRATION: Bipartisan accord: On March 24, the President signed the Bipartisan Accord on Central America with top leaders of the Congress. The agreement sets out the broad outlines of a strong and effective U.S. policy in the region: Humanitarian aid: Congress has agreed to support the Administration's request for continued humanitarian assistance for the Nicaraguan Democratic Resistance at current levels through the elections in Nicaragua scheduled for February, 1990. Democracy and Regional Peace: The burden of proof is on the Sandinista government to do something it has steadfastly refused to do from 1979 to 1989: keep its promises to its people and its neighbors. If those pledges of democracy and peace continue to be violated, we hope and expect that other nations will find ways to join us to condemn those actions. But if those promises are kept, we have an opportunity to start a new day in Central America. Support for reform in Poland: The Polish people are now taking concrete steps which deserve our active support. Those reforms include the legalization of Poland's heroic trade union movement, Solidarity, and were recognized by President Bush's initiative, which contained eight steps to support Polish political and economic reforms: -- The President is asking the Congress to join him in providing Poland access to our Generalized System of Preferences, which offers selective tariff relief to beneficiary countries. We are working with our allies and friends in the Paris Club to develop sustainable new schedules for Poland to repay its debt, easing a heavy burden so that a free market can grow. The President is also asking Congress to join him in authorizing the Overseas Private Investment Corporation to operate in Poland. The President is proposing negotiations for a private business agreement with Poland to encourage cooperation between U.S. firms and Poland's private businesses. The U.S. will continue to consider supporting, on their merits, viable loans to the private sector by the International Finance Corporation. 5 The President supports the Roundtable agreements that clear the way for Poland to be able to work with the International Monetary Fund on programs that encourage sound, new, market-oriented economic policies. The Administration is also encouraging business and non-profit groups to develop innovative programs to swap Polish debt for equity in Polish enterprises; and for charitable, humanitarian and environmental projects. The President will support imaginative educational, cultural and training programs to help liberate the creative energies of the Polish people. Bilateral meetings: The President has met with a total of 34 foreign leaders while in office, including a series of 18 bilateral meetings during the trip to Emperor Hirohito's funeral. President Bush has met with leaders from the Middle East, including Prime Minister Shamir of Israel, President Mubarak of Egypt and King Hussein of Jordan. A dialogue has begun with the Soviet Union. Secretary Baker met with Foreign Minister Shevardnadze in March, and these talks will continue when the two meet next in Moscow Inter-American Development Bank: The Bush Administration successfully concluded negotiations which will lead to a substantial increase in the Bank's resources. The resulting $22.5 billion in lending over the 1990-93 period will support development efforts in major Latin American debtor countries as well as the smaller countries of Central America and the Caribbean. Initiative on Third World Debt: The President's initiative to strengthen the international strategy on Third World debt has already received broad international support from both industrialized and developing countries. The approach is designed to promote sustained growth in developing countries by: Emphasizing sound market-oriented economic policies in debtor countries, particularly measures to promote investment and repatriation of flight capital; Increasing the focus on debt and debt service reduction to complement new lending by commercial banks; Using resources from the World Bank and International Monetary Fund to catalyze voluntary debt and debt service reduction by the commercial banks. GATT: In the Uruguay Round of GATT trade negotiations, the Administration has made substantial progress toward reducing trade barriers to U.S. exports. Policy reviews: President Bush has ordered a comprehensive review of foreign policy and defense strategies, soon to be completed. 6 INVESTING IN OUR FUTURE EDUCATION The President's actions to improve education are guided by four key principles: that excellence and success in education should be recognized and rewarded; that federal funding should be targeted to those who need it most; that choice and flexibility - - for educators, parents and students -- are important to educational reform and to achieving excellence; and finally, that greater accountability is needed in the education system to assure that students are actually receiving the highest quality education. ACTION BY THE ADMINISTRATION: The President proposed and sent to the Congress a comprehensive education package, "The Educational Excellence Act of 1989" which includes seven initiatives: -- The Presidential Merit Schools program -- to reward schools that have made substantial progress in raising students' educational achievement, creating a safe and drug-free school environment, and reducing the drop-out rate. -- A new Magnet Schools of Excellence program -- to support the establishment, expansion or enhancement of magnet schools, increasing parental choice and improving quality education. : The Alternative Certification of Teachers and Principals program -- to assist States interested in broadening the pool of talent from which to recruit teachers and principals. : President's Awards for Excellence in Education -- to be awarded to public and private school teachers in every state who meet the highest standards of excellence. -- Drug-free Schools Urban Emergency Grants -- to provide special assistance to selected urban school districts that are disproportionately affected by drug trafficking and abuse. : A National Science Scholars program -- to provide college scholarships to high school seniors who have excelled in the sciences and mathematics. -- Additional Funding Authorization for Endowment Matching Grants at Historically Black Colleges and Universities to strengthen HBCUs by building endowments, an especially effective way to create financial strength and long-term security. THE ENVIRONMENT President Bush, a long-time environmentalist, has taken strong action to protect the environment. He is working shoulder-to-shoulder with Interior Secretary Lujan, Energy Secretary Watkins, and EPA Administrator Reilly on a number of fronts. 7 ACTION BY THE ADMINISTRATION: Alaskan oil spill: A Cabinet-level team was sent to assess the Alaskan oil spill situation, and a joint federal-state resource recovery team was convened, with Secretary of Transportation Skinner now coordinating all efforts. Coast Guard Commandant Yost has returned to Alaska to assume personal oversight of developments, and the National Transportation Safety Board is investigating the accident itself. Exxon has accepted responsibility for paying for the cleanup, and for employing local civilian personnel necessary to control further damage. In addition to the considerable federal personnel and equipment already in place, on April 7, the President announced that Defense Secretary Cheney will make available U.S. Armed Forces personnel and equipment to assist in the cleanup. EPA Administrator Reilly will coordinate the long-range planning to restore the environment of Prince William Sound, and the President has ordered a review of existing contingency plans for accidents such as this. The Departments of Interior, Commerce and Agriculture, with the State of Alaska, have begun a scientific assessment of damages to natural resources. Exxon has provided $15 million in up-front funding for this effort. The President has set up a special task force to address environmental concerns about oil and gas drilling off the coasts of California and Florida. Cleaning up hazardous wastes: The President announced he will be seeking new legislation to give the United States Government authority to ban all exports of hazardous waste except where an agreement exists with the receiving country providing for the safe handling and management of those wastes. Also, Secretary of Energy Watkins has put forth a plan of action to identify and prioritize clean up of defense and civilian radioactive waste. Superfund: The President is reinvigorating the Superfund hazardous waste clean-up program by directing EPA to take a number of actions, including more aggressive action to force private parties to clean up sites, stepped-up cost recovery, and better use of existing emergency cleanup authorities. EPA is also now finishing a priority review of Superfund to improve its operation. Ozone depletion: The President has called for a total worldwide phaseout of CFCs by the year 2000, provided safe substitutes are available, in order to prevent further damage to the earth's protective ozone layer. 8 Clean Air and Acid Rain: The President committed his Administration to submitting a new Clean Air Act, including provisions for control of acid rain, ozone, and toxic air pollutants. Top Administration officials have begun drafting a bill, in consultation with leaders of Congress. Clean water and coastlines: The EPA has started a tracking system for medical wastes and the Justice Department has started a task force to prosecute these abuses -- the first step in a comprehensive program to help keep our beaches clean. The President is committed to end ocean dumping of sewage sludge by 1991. Wetlands: The President is committed to "no net loss of wetlands" and is directing his agencies to work toward that goal. He has also proposed $206 million in his budget to expand our parks and wildlife refuges. FIGHTING DRUGS AND CRIME With the confirmation of Bill Bennett as Director of National Drug Control Policy, and the trip by Attorney General Thornburgh to South America to meet with local leaders with regard to joint eradication and interdiction efforts, we have begun a new war on drugs in this country. The President believes a four-pronged approach is key: education, rehabilitation, interdiction and enforcement. The policy of this Administration is "zero tolerance." No amount of illegal drug use is acceptable. This means dealing with both supply and demand. ACTION BY THE ADMINISTRATION: Budget: The Administration is requesting $6 billion in funding for FY 1990 to fight the drug war, increasing outlays by nearly $1 billion for drug education, treatment and enforcement. Education: The Administration is requesting nearly $1.1 billion for education and prevention efforts. This is a 16 percent increase over 1989, and includes funding for ongoing programs and new initiatives. Rehabilitation: Funding for drug abuse treatment will be increased 18 percent. The Administration is proposing over $700 million to expand the nation's capacity to provide treatment, particularly to the indigent, disadvantaged, youth, and expectant mothers. Interdiction and enforcement: The Administration is proposing over $4.1 billion for law enforcement programs in 1990, a 10 percent increase over 1989. This constitutes about 70 percent of President Bush's proposed drug budget. Substantial increases are requested in funding to strengthen inspection, interdiction, intelligence efforts and crop 9 eradication programs, such as Operation Polar Cap, a federally led effort which broke up a $1.2 billion drug money-laundering operation. The President strongly supports the death penalty for drug kingpins who commit drug-related murders, and will appoint judges who will strongly enforce the drug penalty laws. The Administration imposed a temporary suspension of imports of certain types of semi-automatic weapons, and has undertaken an emergency study to identify the best means of reducing drug-related killings and other violent crime. Public housing: The Bush Administration is working to make public housing drug free, to protect the rights of the vast majority of decent, law-abiding public housing residents. The Department of Housing and Urban Development has acted: -- To modify its lease and grievance procedures to facilitate eviction of those involved in drug related criminal activity; -- To make drug use and trafficking a lease violation subject to eviction proceedings; -- To target federal assistance to anti-drug security measures; -- To revoke federal housing subsidies from those dealing in drugs; -- To involve the private and voluntary sectors in efforts to rid public housing of drugs and give residents, especially young people, a stake in their communities and their futures. In addition, the Office of National Drug Control Policy has responded to the drug emergency in the District of Columbia: -- A Metropolitan Area Task Force will be expanded, with 57 additional representatives from federal agencies, and state and local police from D.C., Maryland and Virginia. : More prisons: The federal Bureau of Prisons will take custody of 250 inmates from the D.C. jail, and work to locate land for construction of a new prison. -- Enforcement: The FBI will provide support to D.C. police in investigations of drug-related murders. Rehabilitation: The National Institute on Drug Abuse will provide assistance in local treatment efforts and will be authorized to establish three new outpatient clinics by 1990. -- Prevention: The Department of Education will provide the District with 50 percent more funds for drug prevention programs in city schools. The Department of Labor will work with the business community to increase job training for youth, and will provide a $100,000 grant to establish employee assistance programs for drug abuse. 10 WORKING FOR A KINDER, GENTLER AMERICA CHILD CARE The changing nature of American society heightens the need for quality, affordable, accessible child care. President Bush wants to put choice in the hands of parents so that they -- not government -- have the power to select the best and safest environment for their children. ACTION BY THE ADMINISTRATION: o Child care: The President has proposed a child care package, the "Working Family Child Care Assistance Act of 1989" which: -- Provides a new refundable child care tax credit of up to $1000 per child under four, for low and moderate income working families. : Makes the existing Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit refundable. -- Does not discriminate against religious- and family- based child care. The President has directed Secretary of Labor Dole to study the market for liability insurance to determine if liability issues impair child care. Head Start: The President has also transmitted legislation to the Congress which would increase the FY 1990 authorization for Head Start by $250 million; this will pay for enrollment of up to 95,000 more four-year-olds in the program. NATIONAL SERVICE President Bush has said that "From now on in America, any definition of a successful life must include serving others." ACTION BY THE ADMINISTRATION: Office of National Service: The President established in the White House the Office of National Service to lead the Administration's national service movement. This Office will identify effective community service models and encourage others to duplicate them across the country. It will challenge individuals, schools, businesses, civic and service groups, religious institutions and other entities to expand existing community service programs and to create new ones. The goal of this Office is to make service to others a central part of every American's life, and in so doing, to help to ameliorate the urgent ills which fray the fabric of American society. The Office will recommend changes in national social and economic policy to promote and encourage 11 service, including tort law reform, welfare law reform and housing, to name a few. Presidential Proclamation: In signing the proclamation commemorating National Volunteer Week, April 9-15, the President challenged every American who cares about the future of this country to engage in some meaningful form of community service. He awarded 18 Presidential Awards to those chosen from nearly 2000 applications -- to winners who embody the ideals of goodness, compassion and concern for others. WELFARE REFORM The Administration has developed a major new education and job training program to help recipients of Aid to Families with Dependent Children move off welfare and become economically self- sufficient. ACTION BY THE ADMINISTRATION: Welfare reform: The Administration issued proposed rules on April 18 to implement the major provisions of the Family Support Act of 1988. The proposed rules are designed to: : Target job training assistance to those who are most likely to benefit and who are most at risk for long- term welfare dependency. : Provide maximum level of flexibility to AFDC parents in obtaining the type of child care that best suits their needs, consistent with the Administration's legislative proposals on child care. JOBS Program: The Administration is proposing to spend $3.3 billion over the next five years implementing the JOBS program. The changes will pay benefits in the future by reducing the number of individuals on welfare. It is estimated that 138,000 families will be able to leave welfare rolls over the next five years as a result of this program. EXPANSION OF MEDICAID The Administration is committed to health care for the disadvantaged, calling for full funding of Medicaid, $37.6 billion for FY 1990, an increase of $3.3 billion, or 9.6 percent over the FY 1989 level. ACTION BY THE ADMINISTRATION: o Expanding Medicaid: On April 18, the Administration forwarded to Congress proposed legislation to make federal programs better serve pregnant women, infants and children. The legislation would expand significantly the population 12 Medicaid serves, making Medicaid available to 1.9 million more women when they became pregnant. The legislation would: Increase by 374,000 the number of pregnant women and children eligible for Medicaid. Foster greater participation in Medicaid by eligible pregnant women by providing services to pregnant women who are presumed eligible for Medicaid before a formal eligibility determination is made; and by requiring States to operate outreach programs in areas of high infant mortality. -- Entitle all children under age 6 who are receiving Food Stamps to Medicaid coverage for immunizations. : Make the Federal match rate for State administration expenses a uniform 50 percent by gradually reducing special administrative match rates ranging from 75 to 100 percent. The savings that would result would allow the legislative eligibility changes proposed by the President to be implemented within the current program's spending level. HOUSING/HOMELESSNESS President Bush has taken a number of steps to create an "opportunity society" of jobs, growth, housing and hope for Americans in need of a helping hand. ACTION BY THE ADMINISTRATION: Homelessness: A proposal to provide over $1 billion in federal resources to help end homelessness and pave the way to jobs, permanent housing, health care and human dignity. President Bush's proposal calls for fully funding the McKinney Homeless Assistance Act and for a new $50 million matching grant program to promote public/private partnerships to assist homeless families and the mentally ill. Enterprise zones: A call for enactment of enterprise zone legislation, to give urban and rural areas the opportunity for jobs and hope for the future. President Bush asked Congress to enact labor and capital-based incentives to create jobs and entrepreneurial activity in our most distressed communities. Affordable housing: A commitment to making housing more affordable for low-income families, and to provide homeownership opportunities to the poor and young families just starting out. President Bush proposes to assist 109,000 new families in need of low-income housing, and has pledged to maintain assistance to those families already being helped. President Bush has also signalled his commitment to empowering poor residents of public housing to become homeowners through resident management and ownership of public housing. 13 ETHICS AND CIVIL RIGHTS High ethical standards and civil rights for all Americans are central to this Administration, and we will enforce them -- strictly, comprehensively, fairly, and to the letter and spirit of the law. ACTION BY THE ADMINISTRATION: O Ethics: The President issued an Executive Order creating the President's Commission on Federal Ethics Law Reform. On March 9, the Commission filed its report and its recommendations to the President. Legislation was sent April 12th to the Congress, and the President issued an Executive Order announcing ethical principles for the conduct of executive branch employees. The President's proposals include: -- A ban on outside earned income for non-career Presidential appointees in the executive branch, including all employees in the immediate White House Office. -- Expanded financial disclosure for all three branches of government. -- Prohibition of the conversion of political contributions for personal or office use. -- A comprehensive review of federal campaign finance laws, including an assessment of the impact of PACs on parties, competition and political debate. The President believes that PAC contributions to candidates should be eliminated, and he will be consulting with the Congress on this issue. President Bush is also opposed to federal funding of congressional campaigns. Deferral of tax liability when an individual is required by his or her agency to divest assets in order to avoid conflicts of interest. -- Strengthened rules against abusing the revolving door for private gain at the expense of the public trust. These rules also apply to the legislative branch. -- A 25 percent pay raise for federal judges was proposed in separate legislation submitted April 12, while the ethics reform legislation restricts their acceptance of honoraria. President Bush believes that honoraria for Members of Congress should be banned; however, the President will not formalize that proposal until after he consults with Congress on that issue and their pay raise. He will include in that discussion the question of a pay increase for certain executive branch positions. -- The extension of the Independent Counsel statute to cover the Congress. -- The extension of the federal statute that prohibits employees from taking actions that enhance their own financial interest to cover legislative and judicial branch employees. 14 -- The establishment of an independent ethics office for the Congress, to be headed by a clearly nonpartisan official, confirmed by both houses. -- The application of the existing one-year post- employment "cooling-off" period for senior executive- branch employees to the legislative and judicial branches. Whistleblower protection: The President supports public servants who revere the trust placed in them by the American people. On April 10, the President signed S. 20, the "Whistleblower Protection Act of 1989." " This law will strengthen the protections and procedural rights available to those federal employees who report misdeeds and mismanagement. : This new law will enhance the authority of the Office of Special Counsel, and whistleblowers will also now be allowed to take their cases to the Merit Systems Protection Board. -- The statute alters the legal burdens of proof, making it easier for employees to be vindicated when they are wrongfully penalized by their supervisors for whistleblowing activities. Civil rights: The Administration has taken a number of actions to protect the civil rights of all Americans, including several court actions in key civil rights cases. -- On March 8, the Department of Justice endorsed the objectives of the Hate Crimes Bill and voiced no opposition to the bill's enactment. The Hate Crimes Bill provides for the collection of data about crimes motivated by race, religion, ethnicity or sexual orientation. -- On March 13, Attorney General Thornburgh announced the filing of Federal housing discrimination lawsuits seeking monetary damages and civil penalties under the expanded enforcement authority of the Fair Housing Amendments Act of 1988. # # #