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Originally Processed With FOIA(s): FOIA Number: S; 2006-0040-F[1]; 2007-0547-F FOIA MARKER This is not a textual record. This is used as an administrative marker by the George Bush Presidential Library Staff. Record Group/Collection: George H.W. Bush Presidential Records Collection/Office of Origin: Speechwriting, White House Office of Series: Speech File Draft Files Subseries: Chron File, 1989-1993 OA/ID Number: 13493 Folder ID Number: 13493-011 Folder Title: Talking Points - Strategic Defense Initiative 6/30/89 Stack: Row: Section: Shelf: Position: G 25 6 3 6 <<<<<<<<<<<<<< OFFICE OF THE VICE PRESIDENT WASHINGTON July 11, 1989 MEMORANDUM FOR CHRISS WINSTON FROM: WILLIAM KRISTOL WK SUBJECT: TALKING POINTS ON THE STRATEGIC DEFENSE INITIATIVE With reference to your June 30 suggested "Talking Points on the Strategic Defense Initiative", OVP believes the following changes would improve this fine set of talking points. - The third point categorizes SDI's "primary obstacles" as "technological, strategic, political, and economic." " This is a pointless observation, which would be better left unsaid. SDI's principal problems lie in the political and budgetary realms, as strategic and technological problems are being rapidly resolved. This bullet should therefore be deleted. - The seventh point incorrectly identifies SDI"s "ultimate goal" as "the devaluation in strategic utility of ballistic missiles." This is a goal for SDI's first phase, but is hardly its "ultimate" objective. To say otherwise would signal radical change in the purpose and direction of the program. - The final sub-point on page one forecasts that the Soviets will have a "hefty first strike capability" in the 21st century. The term "hefty" is inappropriate. Its evasiveness and imprecision understate the severity of the problem. The Soviet emphasis on first-strike weapons should be described as "threatening," "destabilizing," "disconcerting," etc. - The first point on page 2 observes that "most experts" feel that our capacity to verify mobile missiles is "far from perfect." This understates an important point. Nothing in arms control is "perfectly verifiable;" but mobile missiles pose unique verification problems that would be enormously burdensome in the absence of strategic defense, and we should say this. We look forward to seeing the final set of talking points and to using them. Document No. 051260SS WHITE HOUSE STAFFING MEMORANDUM DATE: 7/6/89 7/7/89 5:00 PM ACTION/CONCURRENCE/COMMENT DUE BY: TALKING POINTS ON THE STRATEGIC DEFENSE INITIATIVE SUBJECT: ACTION FYI ACTION FYI VICE PRESIDENT MCCLURE N/C SUNUNU NEWMAN SCOWCROFT PORTER DARMAN STUDDERT BATES UNTERMEYER ROGERS BREEDEN CARD WINSTON CICCONI PINKERTON DEMAREST Ra FITZWATER GRAY HAGIN REMARKS: 68 Please forward any comments directly to Chriss Winston, (Rm. 122, x2930, no later than 5:00 PM, Friday, July 7, 1989, with an info copy to my office. Thank you. RESPONSE: 7 P12: 46 James W. Cicconi Assistant to the President and Deputy to the Chief of Staff Ext. 2702 June 30, 1989 TALKING POINTS ON THE STRATEGIC DEFENSE INITIATIVE * The President is committed to the development and deployment of Strategic Defenses when they are ready. * By developing the means to defend against ballistic missiles that threaten us, we also lessen the incentives for aggression thus enhancing stability and deterrence. issues concerning * The primary obstacles to SDI can generally be categorized as technological, strategic, political and economic, Technology and SDI Though many complex scientific and engineering problems remain, there appear to be no technological show-stoppers for SDI. In some areas such as kinetic kill technological break breakthroughs advances Important have been achieved. A system popularly known as Brilliant Pebbles is one example. (what it Strategy and SDI On June 29, 1989, Vice President Quayle outlined how SDI will one day alter the strategic equation between offense and defense. SDI's ultimate goal is the devaluation in the strategic utility deter a Hack on the U.S. and its allies by of ballistic missiles, We are seeking a more stable balance that relies increasingly on defense. It would be preferable, but not necessary, if the Soviets would work with us to develop a cooperative arrangement for making this transition. * Progress on strategic offensive arms reductions and strategic defense are not mutually exclusive -- on the contrary, START and SDI are complementary. ** In general, the more progress we make toward offensive reductions, the more we will need to rely on SDI to help us deter, or deal with, possible Soviet cheating or breakout. SDI is an insurance policy for START. *** First, the Soviets' largely modern land-based ICBM force is projected to ensure them a hefty first-strike capability well into the 21st century. A reasonably reliable system of strategic defenses would diminish our anxiety over this ICBM threat. marke improve our security in the face of His *** Second, the U.S. would be better able to deal cope with the problem of Soviet mobile ICBMs. SDI would complement a mobile verification regime in START that most has experts feel would be far from perfect, many unresslved and important details *** Third, the sheer complexity of the proposed START treaty will probably result in unavoidable loopholes that arms control on its own cannot plug. In turn, this situation would jeopardize treaty ratification, Strategic defenses could help plug the loopholes. * Finally, Strategic Defense could will be the only thoroughly reliable way to address the problem of accidental, unauthorized, or third world "madman" launches of ballistic missiles. william webster ** Concerns are no longer hypothetical. The Director of Central Intelligence testified recently that up to 15 developing nations could have a ballistic launch capability by the turn of the century. ** The instability of many regimes raises another frightening scenario -- who has authority to release missiles during periods of intense civil strife? As the nuclear and chemical club grows, this question will be asked more often. also ** Controlling missile technology from the supply side is not enough -- ultimately we must have the capability to defend ourselves against ballistic missiles, Guodler ** One interesting possibility is that with a space-based defense, the U.S. could also defend other countries against rogue launchesx is another possible use of an a space- based defense. Politics and Economics of SDI * The recent recommendation by the majority of the members of the House Armed Services Committee to cut the SDI budget by over a billion dollars is a shortsighted move. * Just at the time American ingenuity is starting to produce technological breakthroughs, SDI opponents are trying to reduce the funding to a level which could not sustain a viable program. The strategic rationale for SDI must be made clearer to the American public and to their representatives in Congress. * Strategic modernization and strategic defense should not be allowed to become an either/or proposition -- as pointed out above, offenses and defenses are synergistic. What Next? make sound * In order to support an deployment decision in three or four years, the President must be able to depend on the results of his carefully designed research and development program. It must be adequately funded. The program schedule for the next two years includes a number of very important tests and experiments. These include: ** The first-ever test of a Neutral Particle Beam in Space. ** Space tests of tracking, pointing, sensor, and communications technologies. ** Numerous interceptor tests for kinetic kill systems such as Brilliant Pebbles. All these early tests comply with the ABM Treaty. Later on, however, tests that fall outside the Treaty will be required decision before the President can confidently make a deployment Bottom Line The Congress and the public it serves must come to recognize that SDI is one of several answers to the many strategic problems the U.S. faces going into the next century. ** the confidence or incentive SDI would dramatically reduce the risk of nuclear war by denying an aggressor the ability to execute a first strike. ** SDI would provide the American people with much-needed insurance against an accidental or inadvertent attack or against a deliberate launch by an irrational government. The Bush Administration continues to believe that strategic defense is technologically feasible, strategically necessary, and morally imperative. STATE AND AND SECUTIVE BUDGE UNITED OFFICE of The PRESCEIN EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET WASHINGTON, D.C. 20503 NOTICE: Enclosed are comments from staff members of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). Such comments do not necessarily represent the official position of the Director of OMB or of the Office of Management and Budget. If you wish to have the Director's personal comments, please let me know -- and contact me if you have any questions. David J. Haun Executive Assistant to the Director 89 JUL 7 P5: 10 Document No. 051260SS WHITE HOUSE STAFFING MEMORANDUM 7/6/89 7/7/89 5:00 PM DATE: ACTION/CONCURRENCE/COMMENT DUE BY: TALKING POINTS ON THE STRATEGIC DEFENSE INITIATIVE SUBJECT: ACTION FYI ACTION FYI VICE PRESIDENT MCCLURE SUNUNU NEWMAN SCOWCROFT PORTER DARMAN STUDDERT BATES UNTERMEYER ROGERS BREEDEN CARD WINSTON CICCONI PINKERTON DEMAREST FITZWATER GRAY HAGIN REMARKS: Please forward any comments directly to Chriss Winston, Rm. 122, x2930, no later than 5:00 PM, Friday, July 7, 1989, with an info copy to my office. Thank you. RESPONSE: See comments James W. Cicconi Assistant to the President and Deputy to the Chief of Staff Ext. 2702 June 30, 1989 TALKING POINTS ON THE STRATEGIC DEFENSE INITIATIVE * The President is committed to the development and deployment of Strategic Defenses when they are ready. By developing the means to defend against ballistic missiles that threaten us, we also lessen the incentives for aggression thus enhancing stability and deterrence, The primary obstacles to SDI can generally be categorized as technological, strategic, political and economic. Technology and SDI * Though many complex scientific and engineering problems remain, there appear to be no technological show-stoppers for SDI. Howard In some areas such as kinetic kill, technological breakthroughs have been achieved. A system popularly known as Brilliant X4624 Pebbles is one example. we are initiating the potential of the most rapidly advancing Technologies Such as SDI. Strategy and SDI On June 29, 1989, Vice President Quayle outlined how SDI will one day alter the strategic equation between offense and defense. * of ballistic missiles, SDI's ultimate goal is the devaluation in the strategic utility We are seeking a more stable balance that relies increasingly on defense. It would be preferable, but not necessary, if the Soviets would work with us to develop a cooperative arrangement for making this transition. * Progress on strategic offensive arms reductions and strategic defense are not mutually exclusive -- on the contrary, START and SDI are complementary. Howard ** In general, the more progress we make toward offensive reductions, the more we will need to rely on SDI to help us deter, or deal with, possible Soviet cheating or breakout. SDI is an insurance policy for START. *** First, the Soviets' largely modern land-based ICBM force is projected to ensure them a hefty first strike capability well into the 21st century. A reasonably reliable system of strategic defenses would diminish our anxiety over this ICBM threat. grow in destructive capability *** Second, the U.S. would be better able to cope with the problem of Soviet mobile ICBMs. SDI would complement a mobile verification regime in START that most Howard experts feel would be far from perfect. *** Third, the sheer complexity of the proposed START could result in ambiguities that the Soviets might seek Exploit to treaty will probably result in unavoidable loopholes that arms control on its own cannot plug. In turn, this situation would jeopardize treaty ratification, Strategic defenses could help plug the loopholes would add to security and help treaty ratification. Finally, Strategic Defense will be the only thoroughly reliable way to address the problem of accidental, unauthorized, or third-world "madman" launches of ballistic missiles. ** Concerns are no longer hypothetical. The Director of Central Intelligence testified recently that up to 15 developing nations could have a ballistic launch capability by the turn of the century. ** The instability of many regimes raises another frightening scenario -- who has authority to release missiles during periods of intense civil strife? As the nuclear and chemical club grows, this question will be asked more often. ** Controlling missile technology from the supply side is not enough -- ultimately we must have the capability to defend ourselves against ballistic missiles, ** One interesting possibility is that with a space-based defense, the U.S. could also defend other countries against rogue launches. Politics and Economics of SDI The recent recommendation by the majority of the members of the House Armed Services Committee to cut the SDI budget by over a billion dollars is a shortsighted move. Just at the time American ingenuity is starting to produce technological breakthroughs, SDI opponents are trying to reduce the funding to a level which could not sustain a viable program. * The strategic rationale for SDI must be made clearer to the American public and to their representatives in Congress. Strategic modernization and strategic defense should not be allowed to become an either/or proposition -- as pointed out above, offenses and defenses are synergistic. What Next? * In order to support a deployment decision in three or four years, the President must be able to depend on the results of his carefully designed research and development program. It must be adequately funded. * The program schedule for the next two years includes a number of very important tests and experiments. These include: ** The first-ever test of a Neutral Particle Beam in Space, ** Space tests of tracking, pointing, sensor, and communications technologies. ** Numerous interceptor tests for kinetic kill systems such as Brilliant Pebbles. All these early tests comply with the ABM Treaty. Later on, however, tests that fall outside the Treaty will be required decision. before the President can confidently make a deployment Bottom Line answers major * The Congress and the public it serves must come to recognize Howard that SDI is one of several answers to the many strategic problems the U.S. faces going into the next century. ** any incentive denying an aggressor the ability to execute a first strike. SDI would dramatically reduce the risk of nuclear war by ** SDI would provide the American people with much-needed insurance against an accidental or inadvertent attack or against a deliberate launch by an irrational government. * The Bush Administration continues to believe that strategic defense is technologically feasible, strategically necessary, and morally imperative. Document No. 051260SS 5360 WHITE HOUSE STAFFING MEMORANDUM 7/6/89 7/7/89 5:00 PM DATE: ACTION/CONCURRENCE/COMMENT DUE BY: TALKING POINTS ON THE STRATEGIC DEFENSE INITIATIVE SUBJECT: ACTION FYI ACTION FYI VICE PRESIDENT MCCLURE SUNUNU NEWMAN SCOWCROFT PORTER DARMAN STUDDERT BATES UNTERMEYER ROGERS BREEDEN CARD WINSTON CICCONI PINKERTON DEMAREST FITZWATER GRAY HAGIN REMARKS: 89 Please forward any comments directly to Chriss Winston, Rm. 122, x2930, no later than 5:00 PM, Friday, July 7, 1989, with an info copy to my office. Thank you. or RESPONSE: July 10, 1989 TO: Chriss Winston NSC concurs with the attached as annotated. 10 James W. Cicconi Assistant to the President Brent Scowcroft and Deputy to the Chief of Staff Ext. 2702 CC: James Cicconi June 30, 1989 TALKING POINTS ON THE STRATEGIC DEFENSE INITIATIVE * The President is committed to the development and deployment of Strategic Defenses when they are ready. * By developing the means to defend against ballistic missiles that threaten us, we also lessen the incentives for aggression thus enhancing stability and deterrence, issues with respect to * The primary obstacles to SDI can generally be categorized as technological, strategic, political and economic. Technology and SDI * Though many complex scientific and engineering problems remain, there appear to be no technological show-stoppers for SDI. In some areas such as kinetic kill, technological breakthroughs advances important have been achieved. A system popularly known as Brilliant Pebbles is one example. Strategy and SDI * On June 29, 1989, Vice President Quayle outlined how SDI will one day alter the strategic equation between offense and defense, to deter attack on the U.S. and * of ballistic missiles. SDI's ultimate goal is the devaluation in the strategic utility on Allies by * We are seeking a more stable balance that relies increasingly on defense. It would be preferable, but not necessary, if the Soviets would work with us to develop a cooperative arrangement for making this transition. * Progress on strategic offensive arms reductions and strategic defense are not mutually exclusive -- on the contrary, START and SDI are complementary. ** In general, the more progress we make toward offensive reductions, the more we will need to rely on 7 SDI to help us deter, or deal with, possible Soviet cheating or breakout. SDI is an insurance policy for START. *** First, the Soviets' largely modern land-based ICBM force is projected to ensure them a hefty first-strike capability well into the 21st century. A reasonably reliable system of strategic defenses would diminish our anxiety over this ICBM threat. *** Second, the U.S. would be better able to cope with the problem of Soviet mobile ICBMs. SDI would complement a mobile verification regime in START that most experts feel would be far from perfect has many un resolved and important d efails Third, the sheer complexity of the proposed START treaty will probably fesult in unavoidable loopholes that arms control on its own cannot plug. In turn, this situation would jeopardize treaty ratification Strategic defenses could help plug the loopholes. could * Finally, Strategic Defense will be the only thoroughly reliable way to address the problem of accidental, unauthorized, or third-world "madman" launches of ballistic missiles. ** Concerns are no longer hypothetical. The Director of Central Intelligence testified recently that up to 15 developing nations could have a ballistic launch capability by the turn of the century. ** The instability of many regimes raises another frightening scenario -- who has authority to release missiles during periods of intense civil strife? As the nuclear and chemical club grows, this question will be asked more often, also ** Controlling missile technology from the supply side is not enough -- ultimately we must have the capability to defend ourselves against ballistic missiles, ** One interesting possibility is that with a space-based defense, the U.S. could also defend other countries against rogue launches. Politics and Economics of SDI * The recent recommendation by the majority of the members of the House Armed Services Committee to cut the SDI budget by over a billion dollars is a shortsighted move. * Just at the time American ingenuity is starting to produce technological breakthroughs, SDI opponents are trying to reduce the funding to a level which could not sustain a viable program. The strategic rationale for SDI must be made clearer to the American public and to their fepresentatives in Congress. 7 * Strategic modernization and strategic defense should not be allowed to become an either/or proposition -- as pointed out above, offenses and defenses are synergistic. What Next? * In order to support a deployment decision in three or four years, the President must be able to depend on the results of his carefully designed research and development program. It must be adequately funded, The program schedule for the next two years includes a number of very important tests and experiments. These include: ** The first-ever test of a Neutral Particle Beam in Space, Space tests of tracking, pointing, sensor, and communications technologies. Numerous interceptor tests for kinetic kill systems such as Brilliant Pebbles, All these early tests comply with the ABM Treaty. however tests that fall outside the Treaty will be L required Later on- decision. before the President can confidently make a deployment the Bottom Line The Congress and the public it serves must come to recognize that SDI is one of several answers to the many strategic problems the U.S. faces going into the next century. and the Fidence SDI would dramatically reduce the risk of nuclear war by denying an aggressor the ability to execute a first strike. SDI would provide the American people with much-needed insurance against an accidental or inadvertent attack or against a deliberate launch by an irrational government. The Bush Administration continues to believe that strategic defense is technologically feasible, strategically necessary, and morally imperative. Document No. 051260SS WHITE HOUSE STAFFING MEMORANDUM 7/6/89 7/7/89 5:00 PM DATE: ACTION/CONCURRENCE/COMMENT DUE BY: TALKING POINTS ON THE STRATEGIC DEFENSE INITIATIVE SUBJECT: ACTION FYI ACTION FYI VICE PRESIDENT MCCLURE SUNUNU NEWMAN SCOWCROFT PORTER DARMAN STUDDERT BATES UNTERMEYER ROGERS BREEDEN CARD WINSTON CICCONI PINKERTON DEMAREST FITZWATER GRAY HAGIN REMARKS: Please forward any comments directly to Chriss Winston, Rm. 122, x2930, no later than 5:00 PM, Friday, July 7, 1989, with an info copy to my office. Thank you. 89 10 A10 51 RESPONSE: Needs re-witing James W. Cicconi Assistant to the President and Deputy to the Chief of Staff Ext. 2702 June 30, 1989 TALKING POINTS ON THE STRATEGIC DEFENSE INITIATIVE The President is committed to the development and deployment of Strategic Defenses when they are ready. By developing the means to defend against ballistic missiles that threaten us, we also lessen the incentives for aggression thus enhancing stability and deterrence, The primary obstacles to SDI can generally be categorized as technological, strategic, political and economic, Technology and SDI Though many complex scientific and engineering problems remain, there appear to be no technological show-stoppers for SDI. ! tellus In some areas such as kinetic kill, technological breakthroughs whis have been achieved. A system popularly known as Brilliant Pebbles is one example. Strategy and SDI On June 29, 1989, Vice President Quayle outlined how SDI will one day alter the strategic equation between offense and defense. [iswhatfollows what he said to enhance our defenses by reducing of ballistic missiles, SDI's ultimate goal is the devaluation in the stet strategic utility We are seeking a more stable balance that relies increasingly on defense. It would be preferable, but not necessary, if the Soviets would work with us to develop a cooperative arrangement for making this transition, make marking Progress on strategic offensive arms reductions and strategic defense are not mutually exclusive -- on the contrary, START and SDI are complementary. ** In general, the more progress we make toward offensive reductions, the more we will need to rely on SDI to help us deter, or deal with, possible Soviet cheating or breakout. SDI is an insurance policy for START. *** First, the Soviets' largely modern land-based ICBM force is projected to ensure them a hefty first-strike re talk security capability well into the 21st century. A reasonably reliable system of strategic defenses would diminish not "anpiety our anxiety over this ICBM threat. *** Second, the U.S. would be better able to cope with the problem of Soviet mobile ICBMs. SDI would complement a mobile verification regime in START that most experts feel would be far from perfect. *** Third, the sheer complexity of the proposed START treaty will probably result in unavoidable loopholes that arms control on its own cannot plug. In turn, this situation would jeopardize treaty ratification, Strategic defenses could help plug the loopholes. * Finally, Strategic Defense will be the only thoroughly reliable way to address the problem of accidental, unauthorized, or third-world 'madman' launches of ballistic missiles. William Webeth ** Concerns are no longer hypothetical. The Director of Central Intelligence testified recently that up to 15 developing nations could have a ballistic launch capability by the turn of the century. ** The instability of many regimes raises another frightening scenario -- who has authority to release missiles during periods of intense civil strife? As the nuclear and chemical club grows, this question will be asked more often. ** Controlling missile technology from the supply side is not enough -- ultimately we must have the capability to defend ourselves against ballistic missiles, ** One interesting possibility is that with a space-based defense, the U.S. could also defend other countries against rogue launches. Politics and Economics of SDI * The recent recommendation by the majority of the members of the House Armed Services Committee to cut the SDI budget by over a billion dollars is a shortsighted move. * Just at the time American ingenuity is starting to produce technological breakthroughs, SDI opponents are trying to reduce the funding to a level which could not sustain a viable program. The strategic rationale for SDI must be made clearer to the American public and to their representatives in Congress. * Strategic modernization and strategic defense should not be allowed to become an either/or proposition -- as pointed out above, offenses and defenses are synergistic. What Next? justify decision to deplay * In order to support a deployment decision in three or four years, the President must be able to depend on the results of his carefully designed research and development program. It must be adequately funded. * The program schedule for the next two years includes a number of very important tests and experiments. These include: ** The first-ever test of a Neutral Particle Beam in Space, ** Space tests of tracking, pointing, sensor, and communications technologies. ** Numerous interceptor tests for kinetic kill systems such as Brilliant Pebbles. All these early tests comply with the ABM Treaty. Later on, however, tests that fall outside the Treaty will be required decision. before the President can confidently make a deployment Bottom Line * The Congress and the public it serves must come to recognize that SDI is one of several answers to the many strategic problems the U.S. faces going into the next century. ** SDI would dramatically reduce the risk of nuclear war by denying an aggressor the ability to execute a first strike. ** SDI would provide the American people with much-needed insurance against an accidental or inadvertent attack or against a deliberate launch by an irrational government. The Bush Administration continues to believe that strategic defense is technologically feasible, strategically necessary, and morally imperative. THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON July 7, 1989 MEMORANDUM FOR CHRISS WINSTON FROM: ROGER B. PORTER RBP SUBJECT: Talking Points on the Strategic Defense Initiative We have no suggested changes from a policy standpoint and approve of the draft in its present form. CC: James W. Cicconi 89 JUL 10 A9:11 A9: 11 Document No. 051260SS WHITE HOUSE STAFFING MEMORANDUM 7/6/89 7/7/89 5:00 PM DATE: ACTION/CONCURRENCE/COMMENT DUE BY: TALKING POINTS ON THE STRATEGIC DEFENSE INITIATIVE SUBJECT: ACTION FYI ACTION FYI VICE PRESIDENT MCCLURE SUNUNU NEWMAN SCOWCROFT PORTER DARMAN STUDDERT BATES UNTERMEYER ROGERS BREEDEN CARD WINSTON CICCONI PINKERTON DEMAREST FITZWATER GRAY HAGIN REMARKS: Please forward any comments directly to Chriss Winston, Rm. 122, x2930, no later than 5:00 PM, Friday, July 7, 1989, with an info copy to my office. Thank you. RESPONSE: James W. Cicconi Assistant to the President and Deputy to the Chief of Staff Ext. 2702 June 30, 1989 TALKING POINTS ON THE STRATEGIC DEFENSE INITIATIVE The President is committed to the development and deployment of Strategic Defenses when they are ready. By developing the means to defend against ballistic missiles that threaten us, we also lessen the incentives for aggression thus enhancing stability and deterrence. The primary obstacles to SDI can generally be categorized as technological, strategic, political and economic, Technology and SDI * Though many complex scientific and engineering problems remain, there appear to be no technological show-stoppers for SDI. In some areas such as kinetic kill, technological breakthroughs have been achieved. A system popularly known as Brilliant Pebbles is one example. Strategy and SDI * On June 29, 1989, Vice President Quayle outlined how SDI will one day alter the strategic equation between offense and defense. * of ballistic missiles. SDI's ultimate goal is the devaluation in the strategic utility * We are seeking a more stable balance that relies increasingly on defense. It would be preferable, but not necessary, if the Soviets would work with us to develop a cooperative arrangement for making this transition. * Progress on strategic offensive arms reductions and strategic defense are not mutually exclusive -- on the contrary, START and SDI are complementary. ** In general, the more progress we make toward offensive reductions, the more we will need to rely on SDI to help us deter, or deal with, possible Soviet cheating or breakout. SDI is an insurance policy for START. *** First, the Soviets' largely modern land-based ICBM force is projected to ensure them a hefty first-strike capability well into the 21st century. A reasonably reliable system of strategic defenses would diminish our anxiety over this ICBM threat. *** Second, the U.S. would be better able to cope with the problem of Soviet mobile ICBMs. SDI would complement a mobile verification regime in START that most experts feel would be far from perfect, *** Third, the sheer complexity of the proposed START treaty will probably result in unavoidable loopholes that arms control on its own cannot plug. In turn, this situation would jeopardize treaty ratification, Strategic defenses could help plug the loopholes. * Finally, Strategic Defense will be the only thoroughly reliable way to address the problem of accidental, unauthorized, or third-world "madman" launches of ballistic missiles. ** Concerns are no longer hypothetical. The Director of Central Intelligence testified recently that up to 15 developing nations could have a ballistic launch capability by the turn of the century. ** The instability of many regimes raises another frightening scenario -- who has authority to release missiles during periods of intense civil strife? As the nuclear and chemical club grows, this question will be asked more often. ** Controlling missile technology from the supply side is not enough -- ultimately we must have the capability to defend ourselves against ballistic missiles, ** One interesting possibility is that with a space-based defense, the U.S. could also defend other countries against rogue launches. Politics and Economics of SDI * The recent recommendation by the majority of the members of the House Armed Services Committee to cut the SDI budget by over a billion dollars is a shortsighted move. * Just at the time American ingenuity is starting to produce technological breakthroughs, SDI opponents are trying to reduce the funding to a level which could not sustain a viable program, The strategic rationale for SDI must be made clearer to the American public and to their representatives in Congress. * Strategic modernization and strategic defense should not be allowed to become an either/or proposition -- as pointed out above, offenses and defenses are synergistic. What Next? In order to support a deployment decision in three or four years, the President must be able to depend on the results of his carefully designed research and development program. It must be adequately funded. The program schedule for the next two years includes a number of very important tests and experiments. These include: ** The first-ever test of a Neutral Particle Beam in Space, Space tests of tracking, pointing, sensor, and communications technologies. Numerous interceptor tests for kinetic kill systems such as Brilliant Pebbles. All these early tests comply with the ABM Treaty. Later on, however, tests that fall outside the Treaty will be required decision. before the President can confidently make a deployment Bottom Line The Congress and the public it serves must come to recognize that SDI is one of several answers to the many strategic problems the U.S. faces going into the next century. ** SDI would dramatically reduce the risk of nuclear war by denying an aggressor the ability to execute a first strike. SDI would provide the American people with much-needed insurance against an accidental or inadvertent attack or against a deliberate launch by an irrational government. The Bush Administration continues to believe that strategic defense is technologically feasible, strategically necessary, and morally imperative. Document No. 051260SS U WHITE HOUSE STAFFING MEMORANDUM 7/6/89 7/7/89 5:00 PM DATE: ACTION/CONCURRENCE/COMMENT DUE BY: TALKING POINTS ON THE STRATEGIC DEFENSE INITIATIVE SUBJECT: ACTION FYI ACTION FYI VICE PRESIDENT MCCLURE SUNUNU NEWMAN SCOWCROFT PORTER DARMAN STUDDERT BATES UNTERMEYER ROGERS BREEDEN CARD WINSTON CICCONI PINKERTON DEMAREST FITZWATER GRAY HAGIN REMARKS: Please forward any comments directly to Chriss Winston Rm. 122, x2930, no later than 5:00 PM, Friday, July 7, 1989, with an info copy to my office. Thank you. RESPONSE: 11 :6v 01 01 70 commont No James W. Cicconi Assistant to the President and Deputy to the Chief of Staff Ext. 2702 THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON July 7, 1989 MEMORANDUM FOR CHRISS WINSTON FROM: STEPHEN G. RADEMAKERSR ASSOCIATE COUNSEL TO THE PRESIDENT SUBJECT: Talking Points on the Strategic Defense Initiative Pursuant to James Cicconi's request, Counsel's Office has reviewed the above-referenced matter. We note that the second paragraph of the section on page 3 entitled "Bottom Line" appears to overstate the case for SDI. Even with SDI deployed, an aggressor could "execute" a first strike, in that he could launch his missiles and confidently expect some of them to reach their targets. It would be more accurate say that SDI would reduce the risk of war by "denying an aggressor the ability to confidently launch a first strike.' Apart from this suggestion, Counsel's Office has no legal objection to the talking points. Thank you for bringing this matter to our attention. CC: James W. Cicconi 28 : Id L 7nr 68 ID # 05126055 CU WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENCE TRACKING WORKSHEET O OUTGOING H INTERNAL I INCOMING Date Correspondence Received (YY/MM/DD) / / Name of Correspondent: James W. Ciccone MI Mail Report User Codes: (A) (B) (C) Subject: Defense protiative Talking auts on the phrategic ROUTE TO: ACTION DISPOSITION Tracking Type Completion Action Date of Date Office/Agency (Staff Name) Code YY/MM/DD Response Code YY/MM/DD Cuofc ORIGINATOR Referral Note: 89,07.07 / / Cuat14 Referral Regiotion Note: 389,07,07 / 5:00 pm / / / Referral Note: / / / / - Referral Note: / / / / Referral Note: ACTION CODES: DISPOSITION CODES: A . Appropriate Action I . Info Copy Only/No Action Necessary A Answered C Completed C - Comment/Recommendation R - Direct Reply w/Copy B - Non-Special Referral S Suspended D Draft Response S For Signature F Furnish Fact Sheet X Interim Reply to be used as Enclosure FOR OUTGOING CORRESPONDENCE: Type of Response = Initials of Signer Code = "A" Completion Date = Date of Outgoing Comments: Peape to Comments directly Chris Rm 122, X2930 Yrs latch than 5:00 p.m., Treday July 121989 W/an Keep this worksheet attached to the original incoming letter. Send all routing updates to Central Reference (Room 75, OEOB). Info to Ciccose As Thanks! Always return completed correspondence record to Central Files. Refer questions about the correspondence tracking system to Central Reference, ext. 2590. 5/81 Document No. 051260SS WHITE HOUSE STAFFING MEMORANDUM 7/6/89 7/7/89 5:00 PM DATE: ACTION/CONCURRENCE/COMMENT DUE BY: TALKING POINTS ON THE STRATEGIC DEFENSE INITIATIVE SUBJECT: ACTION FYI ACTION FYI VICE PRESIDENT MCCLURE SUNUNU NEWMAN SCOWCROFT PORTER DARMAN STUDDERT BATES UNTERMEYER ROGERS BREEDEN CARD WINSTON CICCONI PINKERTON DEMAREST FITZWATER GRAY HAGIN REMARKS: Please forward any comments directly to Chriss Winston, Rm. 122, x2930, no later than 5:00 PM, Friday, July 7, 1989, with an info copy to my office. Thank you. RESPONSE: James W. Clcconi Assistant to the President and Deputy to the Chief of Staff Ext. 2702 June 30, 1989 TALKING POINTS ON THE STRATEGIC DEFENSE INITIATIVE The President is committed to the development and deployment of Strategic Defenses when they are ready. By developing the means to defend against ballistic missiles that threaten us, we also lessen the incentives for aggression thus enhancing stability and deterrence, The primary obstacles to SDI can generally be categorized as technological, strategic, political and economic. Technology and SDI Though many complex scientific and engineering problems remain, there appear to be no technological show-stoppers for SDI. In some areas such as kinetic kill, technological breakthroughs have been achieved. A system popularly known as Brilliant Pebbles is one example. Strategy and SDI On June 29, 1989, Vice President Quayle outlined how SDI will one day alter the strategic equation between offense and defense, of ballistic missiles. SDI's ultimate goal is the devaluation in the strategic utility We are seeking a more stable balance that relies increasingly on defense. It would be preferable, but not necessary, if the Soviets would work with us to develop a cooperative arrangement for making this transition, Progress on strategic offensive arms reductions and strategic defense are not mutually exclusive -- on the contrary, START and SDI are complementary. ** In general, the more progress we make toward offensive reductions, the more we will need to rely on SDI to help us deter, or deal with, possible Soviet cheating or breakout. SDI is an insurance policy for START. *** First, the Soviets' largely modern land-based ICBM force is projected to ensure them a hefty first-strike capability well into the 21st century. A reasonably reliable system of strategic defenses would diminish our anxiety over this ICBM threat. *** Second, the U.S. would be better able to cope with the problem of Soviet mobile ICBMs. SDI would complement a mobile verification regime in START that most experts feel would be far from perfect. *** Third, the sheer complexity of the proposed START treaty will probably result in unavoidable loopholes that arms control on its own cannot plug. In turn, this situation would jeopardize treaty ratification, Strategic defenses could help plug the loopholes. Finally, Strategic Defense will be the only thoroughly reliable way to address the problem of accidental, unauthorized, or third-world "madman" launches of ballistic missiles. ** Concerns are no longer hypothetical. The Director of Central Intelligence testified recently that up to 15 developing nations could have a ballistic launch capability by the turn of the century. ** The instability of many regimes raises another frightening scenario -- who has authority to release missiles during periods of intense civil strife? As the nuclear and chemical club grows, this question will be asked more often, ** Controlling missile technology from the supply side is not enough -- ultimately we must have the capability to defend ourselves against ballistic missiles, ** One interesting possibility is that with a space-based defense, the U.S. could also defend other countries against rogue launches. Politics and Economics of SDI The recent recommendation by the majority of the members of the House Armed Services Committee to cut the SDI budget by over a billion dollars is a shortsighted move. Just at the time American ingenuity is starting to produce technological breakthroughs, SDI opponents are trying to reduce the funding to a level which could not sustain a viable program. The strategic rationale for SDI must be made clearer to the American public and to their representatives in Congress. * Strategic modernization and strategic defense should not be allowed to become an either/or proposition -- as pointed out above, offenses and defenses are synergistic. What Next? * In order to support a deployment decision in three or four years, the President must be able to depend on the results of his carefully designed research and development program. It must be adequately funded. The program schedule for the next two years includes a number of very important tests and experiments. These include: ** The first-ever test of a Neutral Particle Beam in Space, ** Space tests of tracking, pointing, sensor, and communications technologies. ** Numerous interceptor tests for kinetic kill systems such as Brilliant Pebbles, All these early tests comply with the ABM Treaty. Later on, however, tests that fall outside the Treaty will be required decision, before the President can confidently make a deployment Bottom Line * The Congress and the public it serves must come to recognize that SDI is one of several answers to the many strategic problems the U.S. faces going into the next century. ** SDI would dramatically reduce the risk of nuclear war by denying an aggressor the ability to execute a first strike. ** SDI would provide the American people with much-needed insurance against an accidental or inadvertent attack or against a deliberate launch by an irrational government. The Bush Administration continues to believe that strategic defense is technologically feasible, strategically necessary, and morally imperative, United States Department of State Washington, D.C. 20520 June 30, 1989 Mary Kate - Here is the cabled public diys lomacy material I menhoned the D ther day. To my knowledge, no one from your office or any 0 ther white House office (besides NSC) had any part in The preparation and approval of parts: 3. "Press themes" 4. "NST Qs and As" 5. "Qs and As on Verification and Stability Measures." In 0 ther words, d don't have any sense that any Bush political appointee (other than me whose in volvement was al most accidental) played a role in developing most of this stuff. Joe Duspan UNCLASSIFIED OUTGOING JO TELEGRAM Department of State PAGE 01 OF 85 STATE 207986 6738 STATE 207986 6733 ORIGIN Pi1-18 OF ALL THE OUTSTANDING START ISSUES, VERIFICATION MAY BE THE MOST COMPLEX. IT WILL BE ESPECIALLY CRITICAL 111 INFO LOG-00 ADS-00 INR-07 EUR-00 SS-00 AF-00 CIAE-00 DETERMINING WHETHER START ENHANCES U.S. SECURITY AND DODE-00 10-19 NEA-04 ARA-00 NSAE-00 SS0-00 EAP-00 STRATEGIC STABILITY. AS PART OF OUR OVERALL NEGOTIATING AIT-02 PA-02 NRRC-01 INRE-00 ACDA-12 AS-02 USIE-00 EFFORT AS THE TALKS-RESUME IN GENEVA, THE UNITED STATES SP-02 MMP-01 SNP-01 PRS-01 01G-04 SDEL-04 SART-01 WILL ALSO PROPOSE THAT THE TWO SIDES MAKE A SPECIAL P-32 /075 R EFFORT TO AGREE ON, AND TO BEGIN IMPLEMENTING AS SOCN AS POSSIBLE, CERTAIN VERIFICATION AND STABILITY MEASURES DRAFTED BY: WHITE HOUSE TEXT DRAWN FROM PROPOSALS THAT BOTH SIDES HAVE ALREADY APPROVED BY: PM/SNP: KNBROWN ADVANCED IN START OR OTHER CONTEXTS. THESE MEASURES WILL S/S-0: LGERSON S/S:JFCOLLINS ENHANCE VERIFICATION OF A START TREATY AND CONTRIBUTE TO 305471 3002512 /72 STRATEGIC STABILITY. EARLY AGREEMENT AND IMPLEMENTATION P 3002281 JUN 89 ZEX OF THEM WILL SPEED RESOLUTION OF OUTSTANDING ISSUES, AND FM SECSTATE WASHDC GIVE ADDED MOMENTUM TO THE EFFORTS OF OUR TWO COUNTRIES TO ALL DIPLOMATIC AND CONSULAR POSTS PRIORITY TO CONCLUDE EXPEDITIOUSLY A START AGREEMENT. AMCONSUL LENINGRAD PRIORITY INFO CIA WASHDC PRIORITY 0000 OUR APPROACH TO THESE ARMS NEGOTIATIONS AND TO OUR FORCE MSC WASHDC PRIORITY 0000 MODERNIZATION PROGRAMS ARE COMPLEMENTARY AND MUTUALLY DOD WASHDC PRIORITY REINFORCING. MAINTAINING CREDIBLE AND EFFECTIVE NUCLEAR DETERRENT FORCES IS ESSENTIAL BOTH TO OUR SECURITY AND TO UNCLAS STATE 207986 OUR ABILITY TO NEGOTIATE SOUND AND STABILIZING E.O. 12356: N/A AGREEMENTS. A SUCCESSFUL START TREATY WILL REDUCE THE TAGS: PARM, NST, US RISK OF WAR, BUT WILL NOT DIMINISH OUR NEED TO RELY ON SUBJECT: PUBLIC DIPLOMACY MATERIALS ON RESUMPTION OF MODERNIZED, EFFECTIVE STRATEGIC FORCES FOR CONTINUED NUCLEAR AND SPACE TALKS (NST) DETERRENCE. INDEED, OUR SECURITY WOULD BE REDUCED RATHER THAN ENHANCED IF WE DO NOT MODERNIZE OUR FORCES WHILE THE 1. THIS CABLE CONTAINS PUBLIC DIPLOMACY MATERIALS FOR SOVIETS CONTINUE TO MODERNIZE THEIRS. WE MUST CONTINUE THE RESUMPTION OF THE NST (START AND DEFENSE & SPACE TO PURSUE BOTH OUR FORCE MODERNIZATION AND ARMS CONTROL, TALKS), FOR USE IN BRIEFINGS OR FOR RESPONDING TO PRESS AND NOT MAKE THE MISTAKE OF TREATING ONE AS A SUBSTITUTE INQUIRES. PARAGRAPH TWO IS TEXT OF A WHITE HOUSE PRESS FOR THE OTHER. RELEASE OF JUNE 19, PARAGRAPH THREE is GENERAL PRESS THEMES FOR NST, PARAGRAPH FOUR IS NST Q'S AND A'S, AND OUR NEGOTIATORS RETURN TO THE BARGAINING TABLE WITH MY PARAGRAPH FIVE IS Q'S AND A'S ON THE NEW U.S. FIRM PLEDGE THAT WE WILL WORK VIGOROUSLY TO ACHIEVE FAIR VERIFICATION AND STABILITY PROPOSAL. AND FAR-REACHING AGREEMENTS THAT STRENGTHEN PEACE. NOTHING HAS HIGHER PRIORITY. I AM HEARTENED BY THE 2. STATEMENT BY THE PRESIDENT GROWING EVIDENCE THAT THE SOVIET UNION IS PREPARED TO NEGOTIATE SERIOUSLY ABOUT AGREEMENTS THAT PROMISE TO REDUCE THE RISK OF WAR. MUCH HAS ALREADY BEEN TODAY MARKS THE OPENING OF ROUND XI OF THE NUCLEAR AND ACCOMPLISHED IN THE NEGOTIATIONS; MUCH REMAINS TO BE SPACE TALKS IN GENEVA. AMBASSADOR RICHARD BURT, THE DONE. OUR COMMITMENT IS UNWAVERING. WE MUST BUILD ON OUR ACHIEVEMENTS THUS FAR TO REACH AGREEMENTS THAT FULFILL OUR OBJECTIVES OF REDUCING THE RISK OF WAR AND CHIEF NEGOTIATOR TO THE STRATEGIC ARMS REDUCTION TALKS, ENHANCING SECURITY AND STABILITY. HEADS THE U.S. DELEGATION. AMBASSADOR HENRY COOPER IS OUR CHIEF NEGOTIATOR TO THE DEFENSE AND SPACE TALKS. 3. PRESS THEMES MY OBJECTIVE FOR THESE NEGOTIATIONS IS TO ACHIEVE VERIFIABLE AGREEMENTS THAT IMPROVE OUR SECURITY WHILE ON JUNE 19, THE UNITED STATES AND THE SOVIET UNION ENHANCING STABILITY AND REDUCING THE RISK OF WAR. IN THE RESUMED THE NUCLEAR AND SPACE ARMS TALKS IN GENEVA. STRATEGIC ARMS REDUCTION TALKS, OUR EMPHASIS WILL BE ON AMBASSADOR RICHARD BURT, THE CHIEF NEGOTIATOR FOR THE CREATING A MORE STABLE NUCLEAR BALANCE AND STRENGTHENING STRATEGIC ARMS REDUCTION TALKS, HEADS THE U.S. DETERRENCE BY REDUCING AND CONSTRAINING THOSE STRATEGIC DELEGATION. AMBASSADOR HENRY COOPER IS THE CHIEF NUCLEAR FORCES WHICH POSE THE GREATEST THREAT TO SECURITY NEGOTIATOR FOR THE DERENSE AND SPACE TALKS. AND STABILITY. WE WILL PURSUE COMPLEMENTARY GOALS IN THE DEFENSE AND SPACE TALKS, SEEKING AN AGREEMENT ON A -- OUR OBJECTIVES IN THE NUCLEAR AND SPACE TALKS, WHICH COOPERATIVE TRANSITION TO A MORE STABLE NUCLEAR BALANCE COMPRISE THE STRATEGIC ARMS REDUCTIONS TALKS AND THE THAT RELIES INCREASINGLY ON DEFENSES. DEFENSE AND SPACE TALKS, ARE TO CONCLUDE EQUITABLE AND VERIFIABLE AGREEMENTS THAT WILL IMPROVE OUR SECURITY, AFTER EXTENSIVE DELIBERATIONS WITH MY ADVISERS, I HAVE ENHANCE STABILITY AND REDUCE THE RISK OF WAR. APPROVED INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE U.S. START DELEGATION. THESE INSTRUCTIONS REAFFIRM MUCH OF THE TREATY TEXT -- IN THE STRATEGIC ARMS REDUCTION TALKS, OUR EMPHASIS NEGOTIATED WITH THE SOVIETS BY THE PREVIOUS WILL BE ON CREATING A MORE STABLE NUCLEAR BALANCE AND ADMINISTRATION. MODIFICATIONS WILL BE PROPOSED IN SOME STRENGTHENING DETERRENCE BY REDUCING AND CONSTRAINING CASES. THE U.S. WILL BE PREPARED TO ADDRESS ALL THE THOSE STRATEGIC NUCLEAR FORCES WHICH POSE THE GREATEST ISSUES ON WHICH THE TWO SIDES HAVE NOT REACHED AGREEMENT THREAT TO SECURITY AND STABILITY. AS THE NEGOTIATIONS PROCEED. IN ADDITION, I HAVE RESERVED THE RIGHT TO INTRODUCE NEW INITIATIVES AIMED AT -- WE WILL PURSUE COMPLEMENTARY GOALS IN THE DEFENSE AND FURTHER ENHANCING SECURITY AND STRATEGIC STABILITY. SPACE TALKS, SEEKING AN AGREEMENT ON A COOPERATIVE TRANSITION TO A MORE STABLE NUCLEAR BALANCE THAT RELIES UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED OUTGOING TELEGRAM Department of State PAGE 02 OF 05 STATE 207986 6738 STATE 207986 6738 MODERNIZATION PROGRAMS AND ARMS CONTROL, AND NOT MAKE THE INCREASINGLY ON DEFENSES, SHOULD THEY PROVE FEASIBLE, MISTAKE OF TREATING ONE AS A SUBSTITUTE FOR THE OTHER. WHILE PRESERVING OUR OPTIONS TO DEPLOY STRATEGIC DEFENSES WHEN THEY ARE READY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT ALL THE RIGHTS ACCORDED BY A START AGREEMENT AND THE LIMITS IMPOSED BY OUR PROPOSALS IN THE STRATEGIC ARMS TALKS ARE FOR IT WILL APPLY EQUALLY TO BOTH SIDES. DEEP REDUCTIONS IN STRATEGIC NUCLEAR FORCES AIMED AT CREATING A MORE STABLE NUCLEAR BALANCE. THE REDUCTIONS :- IN THE DEFENSE AND SPACE NEGOTIATIONS, AS IN START, WE PROPOSE ARE NOT FOR THEIR OWN SAKE. THEY ARE DESIGNED OUR FUNDAMENTAL OBJECTIVE IS TO REDUCE THE RISK OF WAR BY TO SUPPORT OUR GOAL OF STRENGTHENING DETERRENCE BY ENHANCING SECURITY, STABILITY, AND PREDICTABILITY. WE REDUCING THE CAPABILITY TO LAUNCH A FIRST STRIKE, EVEN IN BELIEVE THAT ADVANCES IN TECHNOLOGY OFFER NEW PROMISE FOR A CRISIS. DEVELOPING EFFECTIVE DEFENSES TO STRENGTHEN DETERRENCE. THE OBJECTIVES OF OUR START PROPOSALS ARE: -- WE WILL PURSUE DISCUSSIONS IN THE DEFENSE AND SPACE TALKS ABOUT MOVING COOPERATIVELY TOWARD A MORE STABILE TO FOCUS REDUCTIONS ON THOSE FORCES WHICH POSE STRATEGIC BALANCE WITH INCREASED RELIANCE ON STRATEGIC THE GREATEST THREAT TO SECURITY AND STABILITY, DEFENSES, SHOULD THEY PROVE FEASIBLE, AND TO PRESERVE OUR AND ENCOURAGE MOVEMENT TO MORE STABILIZING OPTIONS TO DEPLOY ADVANCED DEFENSES WHEN THEY ARE READY. SYSTEMS; U.S. NEGOTIATORS HAVE WORKED TOWARD A DEFENSE AND TO FOSTER GREATER PREDICTABILITY AND LOWER THE SPACE TREATY BUILDING ON THE PRINCIPLES OUTLINED AT THE UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT THE FUTURE STRATEGIC THREATS DECEMBER 1987 WASHINGTON SUMMIT. LAST YEAR, THE U.S. THAT EACH SIDE WILL FACE; PRESENTED DRAFT PROTOCOL PROVISIONS ON PREDICTABILITY OR CONFIDENCE-BUILDING MEASURES IN THE FIELD OF STRATEGIC TO ENABLE US TO VERIFY EFFECTIVELY THAT THE OTHER BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE. SIDE IS COMPLYING WITH THE AGREEMENT. WE WILL NOT AGREE TO ALLOW THE COMPLETION OF A START WE HAVE ALREADY MADE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS TOWARD A AGREEMENT TO BE HELD HOSTAGE TO COMPLETION OF A DEFENSE START TREATY: A 400 PAGE JOINT DRAFT TREATY TEXT AND SPACE AGREEMENT. WE WILL ALSO NOT CONCLUDE NEW REFLECTS BROAD AREAS OF AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE SIDES. WE STRATEGIC ARMS CONTROL AGREEMENTS UNTIL THE SOVIET UNION INTEND TO PROCEED IN THIS NEW ROUND OF TALKS ON THE BASIS OF THIS DOCUMENT, AND WILL LOOK FOR WAYS TO REINFORCE OUR CORRECTS ITS KRASNOYARSK VIOLATION OF THE ABM TREATY. EMPHASIS ON SECURITY, SURVIVABILITY AND STRATEGIC STABILITY. -- THE PREVIOUS ADMINISTRATION LEFT AN EXCELLENT FOUNDATION UPON WHICH TO BUILD. PRESIDENT BUSH WAS PART VERIFICATION IS ONE OF THE MOST COMPLEX ISSUES IN THE OF THAT EFFORT WHEN HE WAS VICE-PRESIDENT. THERE WILL NEGOTIATIONS, AND ONE OF THE MOST CRITICAL TO OUR NATURALLY BE CONSIDERABLE CONTINUITY IN OUR APPROACH TO SECURITY. AS PART OF OUR OVERALL NEGOTIATING EFFORT AS THESE NEGOTIATIONS, BUT WE RESERVE THE RIGHT TO MAKE THE TALKS RESUME IN GENEVA, THE UNITED STATES PROPOSES CHANGES AND INTRODUCE NEW IDEAS IN THE COURSE OF THE THAT THE TWO SIDES MAKE A SPECIAL EFFORT TO WORK OUT, AND TALKS. BEGIN IMPLEMENTING AS SOON AS POSSIBLE, CERTAIN VERIFICATION AND STABILITY MEASURES DRAWN FROM PROPOSALS 4. NST Q'S AND A'S THAT BOTH SIDES HAVE ALREADY ADVANCED IN START OR OTHER CONTEXTS. Q. YOU STATE THAT THE U.S. RESERVES THE RIGHT TO THESE MEASURES WILL ENHANCE OUR EFFORT TO ACHIEVE AN INTRODUCE NEW IDEAS IN THE DRAFT START TREATY. CAN YOU EFFECTIVE VERIFICATION REGIME FOR THE START TREATY AND PROVIDE ANY SPECIFICS AS TO WHAT NEW IDEAS YOU MIGHT BE CONTRIBUTE TO STRATEGIC STABILITY. EARLY IMPLEMENTATION CONSIDERING? OF THEM WILL SPEED RESOLUTION OF OUTSTANDING ISSUES, AND GIVE ADDED MOMENTUM TO THE EFFORTS OF OUR TWO COUNTRIES A. AS WE HAVE SAID, THE PREVIOUS ADMINISTRATION LEFT AN EXCELLENT FOUNDATION UPON WHICH TO BUILD IN THE AREA OF TO CONCLUDE A START AGREEMENT. ARMS CONTROL, AND THERE WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE DEGREE OF CONTINUITY IN THIS ADMINISTRATION. NEGOTIATIONS ARE A OUR APPROACHES TO START AND TO OUR STRATEGIC FORCE GIVE-AND-TAKE PROCESS, SO WE RESERVE THE RIGHT TO MAKE MODERNIZATION PROGRAM ARE COMPLEMENTARY AND MUTUALLY CHANGES AND TO INTRODUCE NEW IDEAS. WE HAVE AND WE WILL REINFORCING. MAINTAINING CREDIBLE AND EFFECTIVE NUCLEAR PRESENT PROPOSALS TO THE SOVIETS IN THE COURSE OF THE DETERRENT FORCES IS ESSENTIAL BOTH TO OUR SECURITY AND TO NEGOTIATIONS. OUR ABILITY TO NEGOTIATE SOUND AND STABILIZING AGREEMENTS. OUR AIMS IN BOTH THE NEGOTIATIONS AND OUR Q. CAN YOU TELL US WHICH ELEMENTS OF THE REAGAN STRATEGIC MODERNIZATION PROGRAM ARE TO ENSURE A MORE ADMINISTRATION. START POSITION YOU ARE PREPARED TO STABLE NUCLEAR BALANCE BY REDUCING THE NATURE AND SCOPE REAFFIRM? OF THE THREAT TO U.S. FORCES, TO DECREASE THE VULNERABILITY OF OUR FORCES TO THE THREAT THAT REMAINS, A. AS I HAVE SAID, THERE WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT AND TO LOWER THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EVOLUTION OF FORCES OF CONTINUITY: WE WILL BE WORKING FROM THE JOINT DRAFT BETWEEN THE SIDES. TREATY TEXT WHICH IDENTIFIES AREAS OF AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE TWO SIDES. IT WOULD BE INAPPROPRIATE, HOWEVER, TO A SUCCESSFUL START TREATY WILL NOT DIMINISH OUR NEED COMMENT ON SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME. FOR MODERNIZED, EFFECTIVE STRATEGIC FORCES FOR CONTINUED DETERRENCE. THE SOVIETS CONTINUE TO MODERNIZE THEIR Q. HAVE YOU COMPLETED YOUR OVERALL REVIEW OF STRATEGIC FORCES. WE MUST CONTINUE TO PURSUE BOTH OUR FORCE POLICY BEFORE RETURNING TO THE NUCLEAR AND SPACE TALKS? UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED OUTGOING TELEGRAM Department of State PAGE 03 OF 05 STATE 207986 6738 STATE 207986 6735 - AIR-LAUNCHED CRUISE MISSILES. THE TWO SIDES A. ALL PORTIONS OF THE REVIEW RELEVANT TO THE RESUMPTION HAVE AGREED ON THE NEED TO DISTINGUISH BETWEEN CATEGORIES OF THESE TALKS ARE COMPLETE. OF COURSE, WE WILL CONTINUE OF HEAVY BOMBERS WITH DIFFERENT ARMAMENTS, FOR THE RIGHT TO REVIEW OUR OPTIONS AS THE NEGOTIATIONS PROGRESS. TO CONVERT BOMBERS FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER, AND FOR SOME OF THE COUNTING RULES FOR HEAVY BOMBERS AND THEIR Q. DISCUSSIONS OF THE U.S. START POSITION SEEM TO PUT ARMAMENTS. HOWEVER, IMPORTANT ISSUES STILL NEED TO BE LESS EMPHASIS ON THE CONCEPT OF DEEP REDUCTIONS. IS THAT RESOLVED, INCLUDING THE NUMBER OF WARHEADS TO BE A CHANGE IN THE U.S. POSITION? ATTRIBUTED TO HEAVY BOMBERS EQUIPPED FOR NUCLEAR ALCMS, HOW TO TREAT HEAVY BOMBERS EQUIPPED FOR CONVENTIONAL ARMS A. NO. THE U.S. GOAL IN THE NEGOTIATIONS HAS ALWAYS ONLY, HOW TO DISTINGUISH BETWEEN NUCLEAR AND CONVENTIONAL ALCMS, AND THE RANGE THRESHOLD ABOVE WHICH NUCLEAR-ARMED BEEN TO REDUCE THE RISK OF NUCLEAR WAR BY CONCLUDING AN AIR-TO-SURFACE MISSILES WOULD BE SUBJECT TO START LIMITS EQUITABLE AND EFFECTIVELY VERIFIABLE AGREEMENT FOR ON NUCLEAR ALCMS. REDUCTIONS IN NUCLEAR ARSENALS, FOCUSING ON THE MOST DESTABILIZING SYSTEMS. THAT OBJECTIVE HAS NOT CHANGED. SOVIET LINKAGE OF START TO ABM. THE U.S. THE REDUCTIONS ARE NOT MERELY FOR THEIR OWN SAKE BUT ARE BELIEVES THAT START AND DEFENSE AND SPACE TREATIES MUST DESIGNED TO ENHANCE STRATEGIC STABILITY AND SECURITY. EACH STAND ON THEIR OWN MERITS. THE CURRENT SOVIET POSITION, WHICH WOULD ALLOW EITHER SIDE TO SUSPEND Q. WILL THE U.S. BE INTRODUCING NEW IDEAS IN THE DEFENSE IMPLEMENTATION OF START REDUCTIONS IF THEY CLAIMED THE AND SPACE TALKS AS WELL? OTHER SIDE HAD VIOLATED THE ABM TREATY, IS NOT ACCEPTABLE. SUCH LINKAGE WOULD CRIPPLE THE SDI PROGRAM A. THE PRESIDENT HAS DECIDED THAT OUR GOALS FOR SD1 AND AND UNDERMINE THE CONFIDENCE NEEDED TO UNDERTAKE OUR APPROACH IN THE DEFENSE AND SPACE TALKS ARE SOUND AND FAR-REACHING START REDUCTIONS. REMAIN UNCHANGED. BUT WE RESERVE THE RIGHT TO MAKE CHANGES AND PRESENT NEW IDEAS AS WELL. VERIFICATION. OF ALL THE OUTSTANDING ISSUES, VERIFICATION MAY BE THE MOST COMPLEX. AS PART OF OUR Q. WHAT ARE THE MAJOR ISSUES THAT REMAIN TO BE RESOLVED OVERALL NEGOTIATING EFFORT AS THE TALKS RESUME, THE U.S. IN START? IS PROPOSING THAT THE TWO SIDES MAKE A SPECIAL EFFORT TO AGREE ON, AND BEGIN IMPLEMENTING AS SOON AS POSSIBLE, A. MAJOR ISSUES REMAINING TO BE RESOLVED INCLUDE: CERTAIN VERIFICATION MEASURES -- AS WELL AS CERTAIN STABILITY MEASURES DRAWN FROM PROPOSALS THAT BOTH MOBILE ICBMS. THE PRESIDENT HAS STATED THAT SIDES HAVE ALREADY ADVANCED IN START OR IN OTHER HE CONSIDERS MOBILITY ESSENTIAL TO ENSURE THE CONTEXTS. (SEE BELOW) SURVIVABILITY OF OUR ICBM FORCES. HE HAS, THEREFORE, ASKED THE CONGRESS TO FUND THE RE-BASING OF THE Q. HOW SOON CAN YOU GET A START AGREEMENT? PEACEKEEPER (MX) TO MAKE IT RAIL-MOBILE, AND THE DEVELOPMENT AND DEPLOYMENT OF THE ROAD-MOBILE SMALL ICBM. A. WE ARE NOT NEGOTIATING AGAINST ANY DEADLINE. WHILE CONSIDERABLE PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE TOWARD A START THE CURRENT U.S. POSITION IS TO BAN MOBILE ICBMS. WE AGREEMENT, THE ISSUES WHICH REMAIN ARE COMPLEX AND CANNOT CHANGE OUR POSITION UNTIL CONGRESS INDICATES ITS DIFFICULT. WE RETURN TO GENEVA READY TO TACKLE THESE APPROVAL OF THE MOBILE MISSILE PROGRAMS WHICH THE PRESIDENT HAS PROPOSED. DIFFICULT PROBLEMS. IF THE SOVIETS ARE SIMILARLY PREPARED, FURTHER PROGRESS CAN BE ACHIEVED. LET ME NOTE THAT TO CONCLUDE A START TREATY THAT PERMITS MOBILE MISSILES, WE WOULD NEED TO BE SURE BOTH Q. WHERE DO WE STAND IN THE DEFENSE AND SPACE TALKS? THAT CONGRESS WILL SUPPORT MOBILE ICBMS OF OUR OWN AND THAT, LIKE ALL TREATY LIMITS, THE START PROVISIONS ON A. U.S. NEGOTIATORS HAVE ATTEMPTED TO WORK TOWARD A MOBILE MISSILES ARE EFFECTIVELY VERIFIABLE. JOINT DRAFT TEXT OF A DEFENSE AND SPACE AGREEMENT, BUILDING ON THE UNDERSTANDING OUTLINED AT THE DECEMBER ICBM WARHEAD SUBLIMIT. THE SOVIETS HAVE NOT 1987 WASHINGTON SUMMIT. WHILE THE SOVIETS HAVE REFUSED AGREED TO A SUBLIMIT OF 3,000-3,300 ON THE NUMBER OF ICBM TO PREPARE SUCH A TEXT, PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE ON DRAFT WARHEADS. THE PURPOSE OF THE U.S.-PROPOSED SUBLIMIT IS PROTOCOL PROVISIONS ON PREDICTABILITY AND TO ENHANCE STRATEGIC STABILITY BY FOCUSING REDUCTIONS IN CONFIDENCE-BUILDING MEASURES IN THE FIELD OF STRATEGIC THESE DESTABILIZING WEAPONS SYSTEMS AND TO ENCOURAGE BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSES. MOVEMENT TOWARD MORE STABILIZING STRATEGIC FORCES. IMPORTANT AREAS OF DIFFERENCE REMAIN: SEA-LAUNCHED CRUISE MISSILES. AT THE WASHINGTON SUMMIT THE TWO SIDES AGREED TO FIND A MUTUALLY NON-WITHDRAWAL FROM THE ABH TREATY. WHILE ACCEPTABLE SOLUTION TO THE QUESTION OF LIMITING THE U.S. COULD ACCEPT A LIMITED COMMITMENT NOT TO DEPLOYMENT OF LONG-RANGE, NUCLEAR-ARMED SLCMS OUTSIDE THE WITHDRAW FROM THE ABM TREATY FOR A SPECIFIED PERIOD OF TIME IN ORDER TO DEPLOY SDI, IT INSISTS THAT NORMAL 6000 WARHEAD AND 1608 STRATEGIC NUCLEAR DELIVERY VEHICLE INTERNATIONALLY RECOGNIZED WITHDRAWAL RIGHTS BASED ON LIMITS, AND TO SEEK MUTUALLY ACCEPTABLE AND EFFECTIVE SUPREME NATIONAL INTERESTS AND MATERIAL BREACH BE METHODS OF VERIFICATION OF SUCH LIMITS. DESPITE OUR INCLUDED IN THE D&S TREATY. THE SOVIETS, HOWEVER, WANT EXTENSIVE EFFORTS, THE U.S. HAS NOT YET FOUND WAYS TO AN UNCONDITIONAL COMMITMENT NOT TO WITHDRAW, WHICH NO EFFECTIVELY VERIFY LIMITS ON NUCLEAR ARMED SLCMS. IN THE SOVEREIGN NATION COULD ACCEPT. ABSENCE OF A WORKABLE PLAN FOR EFFECTIVE VERIFICATION, THE U.S. HAS PROPOSED THAT THE SIDES SHOULD MAKE ABM TREATY RESTRICTIONS ON RESEARCH, NON-BINDING DECLARATIONS OF PLANNED NUCLEAR SLCM NUMBERS. DEVELOPMENT AND TESTING. THE SOVIET UNION SEEKS GREATER RESTRICTIONS THAN THOSE AGREED TO IN THE ABM TREATY IN AN UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED OUTGOING TELEGRAM Department of State PAGE 04 OF 05 STATE 207986 6738 STATE 207986 6736 EFFORT TO LIMIT THE U.S. SDI PROGRAM. THE U.S. SEEKS TO PRESERVE THE RESEARCH, DEVELOPMENT, AND TESTING RIGHTS AS WE CONTINUE TO TRY TO RESOLVE ALL OTHER OUTSTANDING PROVIDED IN THE ABM TREATY. ISSUES. THE MAJORITY OF MEASURES ARE DESIGNED TO SUPPORT VERIFICATION, WHICH IS ONE OF THE MOST COMPLEX AREAS, AND THE REGIME THAT WOULD FOLLOW THE END OF THE WHICH MUST BE RESOLVED BEFORE A START TREATY CAN BE NON-WITHDRAWAL PERIOD. THE SOVIET UNION SEEKS COMPLETED. OTHER MEASURES WOULD IMPROVE STABILITY. CONTINUATION OF AN UNSPECIFIED RESTRICTIVE INTERPRETATION EARLY AGREEMENT AND IMPLEMENTATION OF SUCH MEASURES WOULD OF THE ABM TREATY FOLLOWING THE NON-WITHDRAWAL PERIOD. GIVE BOTH SIDES PRACTICAL EXPERIENCE, WHICH IN TURN WOULD THE U.S. AGREES THAT THE ABH TREATY WOULD REMAIN IN SPEED THE PROCESS OF RESOLVING OUTSTANDING ISSUES AND EFFECT AFTER THE NON-WITHDRAWAL PERIOD, BUT EITHER PARTY FACILITATE THE EFFORTS OF THE TWO SIDES TO CONCLUDE A WOULD BE FREE TO CHOOSE TO DEPLOY STRATEGIC MISSILE START AGREEMENT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. DEFENSES THAT ARE BEYOND THE LIMITATIONS IN THE ABM TREATY UPON GIVING THE OTHER PARTY SIX MONTHS WRITTEN THE MEASURES WE PROPOSE TO WORK ON INCLUDE: NOTIFICATION OF ITS INTENTION TO DO so. IN THAT CASE, THE PARTY COULD DEPLOY STRATEGIC DEFENSES WITHOUT FURTHER -- ESTABLISHMENT NOW OF ON-SITE PERIMETER/PORTAL REFERENCE TO THE ABM TREATY. MONITORING OF CERTAIN MISSILE PRODUCTION FACILITIES; PREDICTABILITY MEASURES. THE U.S. HAS -- AN EXCHANGE OF DATA ON EACH SIDES' STRATEGIC NUCLEAR PROPOSED A SET OF FAR-REACHING CONFIDENCE-BUILDING FORCES; MEASURES TO ENHANCE PREDICTABILITY ABOUT THE SIDES' -- PROHIBITING ENCRYPTION OF TELEMETRY ON ICBMS AND SLBMS: FUTURE ACTIVITIES IN THE FIELD OF STRATEGIC BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE. THE SOVIET UNION HAS PROPOSED A SET OF FAMILIARIZATION WITH PROCEDURES FOR INSPECTION OF UNWORKABLE MEASURES IN AN EFFORT TO ENHANCE VERIFICATION BALLISTIC MISSILES; OF COMPLIANCE WITH THE ABM TREATY, RATHER THAN ADD PREDICTABILITY TO THE D&S TREATY. ADDRESSING THE PROBLEM OF SHORT-TIME-OF-FLIGHT SLBMS; Q. IS SDI A STUMBLING BLOCK? -- NOTIFICATION OF STRATEGIC EXERCISES; AND A. THE PRESIDENT HAS SAID WE WILL VIGOROUSLY PURSUE SDI -- EXPERIMENTATION ON THE IDENTIFICATION OF MISSILES AND DEPLOY IT WHEN IT IS READY. THE SOVIETS SHOULD ("TAGGING"). UNDERSTAND - PARTICULARLY SINCE PRESIDENT GORBACHEV HAS ACKNOWLEDGED THAT THEY HAVE THEIR OWN PROGRAM IN THIS Q. ARE YOU SAYING THAT THE TWO SIDES HAVE TO AGREE ON VITAL AREA -- OUR INSISTENCE ON INVESTIGATING FULLY THE THESE VERIFICATION MEASURES BEFORE YOU CAN NEGOTIATE AND FEASIBILITY OF ADVANCED STRATEGIC DEFENSES. SETTLE THE OTHER ISSUES IN THE TREATY? IN OTHER WORDS, IS AGREEMENT ON THIS VERIFICATION PACKAGE A PRE-CONDITION Q. WHAT IS THE U.S. POSITION ON THE BROAD INTERPRETATION FOR A TREATY? OF THE ABM TREATY? A. NO. THIS IS NOT A "TAKE IT OR LEAVE IT PACKAGE" OR A A. IT HAS NOT CHANGED. IN THE DEFENSE AND SPACE TALKS, PRE-CONDITION. WE ARE GOING TO BE NEGOTIATING IN GENEVA WE SEEK TO PRESERVE OUR RIGHT UNDER THE ABM TREATY TO ON ALL OTHER OUTSTANDING ISSUES AS WELL AS VERIFICATION DEVELOP AND TEST ADVANCED ABM SYSTEMS AND COMPONENTS. AND STABILITY MEASURES. IT is A LIST OF PROPOSALS AND IDEAS ON AREAS WHERE WE THINK WE CAN GET A HEAD START ON Q. WHAT MUST THE SOVIET UNION DO TO RESOLVE THE RESOLVING SOME OUTSTANDING ISSUES. KRASNOYARSK VIOLATION? WHY IS THE U.S. EVEN NEGOTIATING IF IT WILL NOT SIGN ANY AGREEMENT UNTIL THE KRASNOYARSK WHAT WE PROPOSE IS TO MAKE AN ACCELERATED EFFORT IN THIS VIOLATION IS CORRECTED? AREA AS PART OF OUR OVERALL NEGOTIATING EFFORT. A. WE HAVE MADE CLEAR TO THE SOVIETS THAT WE WILL NOT WE BELIEVE THESE IDEAS WILL FACILITATE AGREEMENT ON CONCLUDE ANY NEW STRATEGIC AGREEMENT UNTIL THEY CORRECT EFFECTIVE AND WORKABLE PROVISIONS FOR THE TREATY, WHICH THEIR VIOLATION AT KRASNOYARSK, WHICH IS A VIOLATION OF A CENTRAL ELEMENT OF THE ABM TREATY. WE BELIEVE THE WOULD SPEED CONCLUSION OF A START TREATY. VIOLATION CAN ONLY BE CORRECTED BY DISMANTLEMENT OF THE RADAR AND DESTRUCTION OF THE TRANSMITTER AND RECEIVER Q. WHAT HAPPENS IF THE SOVIETS DON'T AGREE? WHAT BUILDINGS, INCLUDING THEIR FOUNDATIONS, BUT WE WILL HAPPENS IF YOU DON'T MAKE QUICK PROGRESS? WILL THIS CONSIDER OTHER SOVIET PROPOSALS THAT WILL MEET OUR DELAY COMPLETING THE TREATY? CRITERIA. THE U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO NEGOTIATE SERIOUSLY AT THE NUCLEAR AND SPACE TALKS, SEEKING PROGRESS ON ALL A. WE WILL WORK ON THOSE THINGS NOW IN WHICH THE SOVIETS THE OUTSTANDING ISSUES, so THAT WE WILL BE PREPARED TO EXPRESS AN INTEREST. REMEMBER, THIS IS A LIST, NOT A MOVE FORWARD QUICKLY AS SOON AS THE KRASNOYARSK PROBLEM PACKAGE. BUT, IN THE END, ALL THESE ISSUES NEED TO BE IS. CORRECTED. ENGAGED. 5. Q'S AND A'S ON VERIFICATION AND STABILITY MEASURES Q. ARE YOU PROPOSING NEW VERIFICATION PROCEDURES? A. THIS PROPOSAL CAPITALIZES ON A LOT OF GOOD WORK THAT Q. WHAT ARE THE VERIFICATION AND STABILITY MEASURES YOU HAS ALREADY BEEN DONE ON THE START TREATY, AND WE WANT TO ARE PROPOSING? BUILD ON THAT. IT DRAWS ON PROPOSALS, BOTH SIDES HAVE ADVANCED III THE START NEGOTIATIONS AND IN OTHER CONTEXTS. A. THE U.S. IS PROPOSING TO ACCELERATE WORK IN THE START NEGOTIATIONS ON VERIFICATION AND STABILITY MEASURES EVEN THE NEW ELEMENT OF THE PROPOSAL IS TO ACCELERATE UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED OUTGOING Department of State TELEGRAM PAGE 05 OF 05 STATE 207986 6738 AGREEMENT AND EARLY IMPLEMENTATION OF SOME OF THESE MEASURES TO HELP WITH VERIFICATION AND WITH THE NEGOTIATION OF THE TREATY AS A WHOLE. Q. ARE YOU PROPOSING VERIFICATION MEASURES IN START NOW BECAUSE THERE HAVE BEEN PROBLEMS IN VERIFICATION OF THE INF TREATY? A. NO. THE POINT IS THAT THE INF EXPERIENCE HAS UNDERLINED THE-NEED TO ADDRESS VERIFICATION ISSUES EARLY ON IN THE NEGOTIATIONS. THE AMOUNT OF DETAIL IN THE INF TREATY IS ENORMOUS, AND WE EXPECT THAT VERIFICATION FOR A START TREATY WOULD BE EVEN MORE COMPLEX. BY GETTING A HANDLE ON THESE DETAILS NOW, EVEN AS WE CONTINUE TO NEGOTIATE THE START PROVISIONS, WE CAN FACILITATE RESOLUTION OF OUTSTANDING QUESTIONS AND EXPEDITE CONCLUSION OF A START AGREEMENT. WE DO NOT WANT TO FIND OURSELVES IN THE POSITION OF HAVING REACHED SUBSTANTIVE AGREEMENT ON ALL OF THE START ISSUES, BUT UNABLE TO COMPLETE THE TREATY BECAUSE WORK ON VERIFICATION REMAINS TO BE DONE. Q. WHAT DO YOU MEAN BY STABILITY MEASURES? WHAT ARE THE PROPOSALS THERE? A. CERTAIN MEASURES CAN ALLAY CONCERNS AND ENHANCE BOTH SIDES' CONFIDENCE AGAINST CERTAIN THREATS. THE PROPOSAL WE HAVE MADE IN GENEVA WILL INCLUDE THIS OBJECTIVE AS WELL AS VERIFICATION. Q. IS IT TRUE THAT YOU ARE PUTTING VERIFICATION ISSUES UP FRONT IN THE START NEGOTIATIONS? A. WE ARE NOT PUTTING VERIFICATION FIRST AT THE EXPENSE OF OTHER ELEMENTS OF THE NEGOTIATION. WE CONTINUE TO WORK ON VERIFICATION AND OTHER ASPECTS OF THE START TREATY SIMULTANEOUSLY. WE ARE ATTEMPTING TO EXPAND THE SCOPE OF THE VERIFICATION ISSUE BY, HYPOTHETICALLY FOR EXAMPLE, ESTABLISHING TECHNICAL GROUPS WHICH CAN SIT DOWN AND DISCUSS THE TYPES OF EQUIPMENT THAT MAY BE NECESSARY FOR VERIFICATION MEASURES. THIS MAY INCLUDE, FOR EXAMPLE, VISITS TO SITES IN EACH OTHER'S COUNTRY. THIS KIND OF APPROACH IS DESIGNED TO ENSURE THAT WHEN THE SUBSTANCE OF THE START NEGOTIATIONS IS AGREED UPON, WE WILL BE FULLY READY TO MOVE FORWARD WITH IMPLEMENTATION. Q. SOME CRITICS SAY THAT THIS PROCEDURE WILL SLOW DOWN THE START NEGOTIATIONS. IS THIS TRUE? A. ACTUALLY, THIS APPROACH WILL ACCELERATE THE NEGOTIATIONS. VERIFICATION IS ONE OF THE MOST COMPLEX AREAS TO DEAL WITH, THEREFORE, IT MAKES SENSE TO WORK ON IT INTENSIVELY NOW. IN ANY EVENT, A START TREATY CANNOT BE CONCLUDED UNTIL EFFECTIVE VERIFICATION PROVISIONS ARE AGREED, so WE NEED TO TACKLE THE VERIFICATION ISSUE SIMULTANEOUSLY WITH OTHER START ISSUES. THE U.S. PROPOSAL IN NO WAY INVOLVES ANY PRE-CONDITION. 6. LENINGRAD MINIMIZE CONSIDERED. BAKER UNCLASSIFIED //. Mary Kate, Here is a clean, original copy of Re material I foxed you. Ive United States Department of State Washington, D.C. 20520 June 30, 1989 TO: MARY KATE GRANT OFFICE OF COMMUNICATIONS, THE WHITE HOUSE Fax 456-6218 Confirmation No. 456-2930 FROM: JOSEPH DUGGAN OFFICE OF AMBASSADOR ROWNY 647-4153 Attached are draft talking points we have prepared on SDI, following the format of the talking points you showed me earlier this week. The talking points are drawn largely from up-to-date information from the Strategic Defense Initiative Organization at the Pentagon and from the Vice President's definitive speech on SDI delivered yesterday at the National Academey of Sciences. June 30, 1989 TALKING POINTS ON THE STRATEGIC DEFENSE INITIATIVE The President is committed to the development and deployment of Strategic Defenses when they are ready. By developing the means to defend against ballistic missiles that threaten us, we also lessen the incentives for aggression thus enhancing stability and deterrence, The primary obstacles to SDI can generally be categorized as technological, strategic, political and economic. Technology and SDI * Though many complex scientific and engineering problems remain, there appear to be no technological show-stoppers for SDI. In some areas such as kinetic kill, technological breakthroughs have been achieved. A system popularly known as Brilliant Pebbles is one example. Strategy and SDI * On June 29, 1989, Vice President Quayle outlined how SDI will one day alter the strategic equation between offense and defense. SDI's ultimate goal is the devaluation in the strategic utility of ballistic missiles. * We are seeking a more stable balance that relies increasingly on defense. It would be preferable, but not necessary, if the Soviets would work with us to develop a cooperative arrangement for making this transition, Progress on strategic offensive arms reductions and strategic defense are not mutually exclusive -- on the contrary, START and SDI are complementary. In general, the more progress we make toward offensive reductions, the more we will need to rely on SDI to help us deter, or deal with, possible Soviet cheating or breakout. SDI is an insurance policy for START. First, the Soviets' largely modern land-based ICBM force is projected to ensure them a hefty first-strike capability well into the 21st century. A reasonably reliable system of strategic defenses would diminish our anxiety over this ICBM threat. -2- Second, the U.S. would be better able to cope with the problem of Soviet mobile ICBMs. SDI would complement a mobile verification regime in START that most experts feel would be far from perfect. Third, the sheer complexity of the proposed START treaty will probably result in unavoidable loopholes that arms control on its own cannot plug. In turn, this situation would jeopardize treaty ratification, Strategic defenses could help plug the loopholes. * Finally, Strategic Defense will be the only thoroughly reliable way to address the problem of accidental, unauthorized, or third-world "madman" launches of ballistic missiles. Concerns are no longer hypothetical. The Director of Central Intelligence testified recently that up to 15 developing nations could have a ballistic launch capability by the turn of the century. The instability of many regimes raises another frightening scenario -- who has authority to release missiles during periods of intense civil strife? As the nuclear and chemical club grows, this question will be asked more often. Controlling missile technology from the supply side is not enough -- ultimately we must have the capability to defend ourselves against ballistic missiles. One interesting possibility is that with a space-based defense, the U.S. could also defend other countries against rogue launches. Politics and Economics of SDI The recent recommendation by the majority of the members of the House Armed Services Committee to cut the SDI budget by over a billion dollars is a shortsighted move. * Just at the time American ingenuity is starting to produce technological breakthroughs, SDI opponents are trying to reduce the funding to a level which could not sustain a viable program. The strategic rationale for SDI must be made clearer to the American public and to their representatives in Congress. Strategic modernization and strategic defense should not be allowed to become an either/or proposition -- as pointed out above, offenses and defenses are synergistic. -3- What Next? * In order to support a deployment decision in three or four years, the President must be able to depend on the results of his carefully designed research and development program. It must be adequately funded. * The program schedule for the next two years includes a number of very important tests and experiments. These include: The first-ever test of a Neutral Particle Beam in Space. Space tests of tracking, pointing, sensor, and communications technologies. Numerous interceptor tests for kinetic kill systems such as Brilliant Pebbles. * All these early tests comply with the ABM Treaty. Later on, however, tests that fall outside the Treaty will be required before the President can confidently make a deployment decision. Bottom Line * The Congress and the public it serves must come to recognize that SDI is one of several answers to the many strategic problems the U.S. faces going into the next century. SDI would dramatically reduce the risk of nuclear war by denying an aggressor the ability to execute a first strike. SDI would provide the American people with much-needed insurance against an accidental or inadvertent attack or against a deliberate launch by an irrational government. * The Bush Administration continues to believe that strategic defense is technologically feasible, strategically necessary, and morally imperative. ARMS CONTROL AGENCY TEL: 202-647-6721 Jun 30,89 15:31 No.003 P.01 United States Department of State Washington, D.C. 20520 June 30, 1989 TO: MARY KATE GRANT OFFICE OF COMMUNICATIONS, THE WHITE HOUSE Fax 456-6218 Confirmation No. 456-2930 FROM: JOSEPH DUGGAN OFFICE OF AMBASSADOR ROWNY 647-4153 Attached are draft talking points we have prepared on SDI, following the format of the talking points you showed me earlier this week. The talking points are drawn largely from up-to-date information from the Strategic Defense Initiative Organization at the Pentagon and from the Vice President's definitive speech on SDI delivered yesterday at the National Academey of Sciences. ARMS CONTROL AGENCY TEL: 202-647-6721 Jun 30,89 15:31 No.003 P.04 -3- What Next? * In order to support a deployment decision in three or four years, the President must be able to depend on the results of his carefully designed research and development program. It must be adequately funded. * The program schedule for the next two years includes a number of very important tests and experiments. These include: ** The first-ever test of a Neutral Particle Beam in Space. ** Space tests of tracking, pointing, sensor, and communications technologies. Numerous interceptor tests for kinetic kill systems such as Brilliant Pebbles, * All these early tests comply with the ABM Treaty. Later on, however, tests that fall outside the Treaty will be required decision, before the President can confidently make a deployment Bottom Line * The Congress and the public it serves must come to recognize that SDI is one of several answers to the many strategic problems the U.S. faces going into the next century. ** SDI would dramatically reduce the risk of nuclear war by denying an aggressor the ability to execute a first strike. ** SDI would provide the American people with much-needed insurance against an accidental or inadvertent attack or against a deliberate launch by an irrational government. * The Bush Administration continues to believe that strategic defense is technologically feasible, strategically necessary, and morally imperative, ARMS. CONTROL AGENCY TEL: 202-647-6721 Jun 30,89 15:31 No.003 P.03 -2- Second, the U.S. would be better able to cope with the problem of Soviet mobile ICBMs. SDI would complement a mobile verification regime in START that most experts feel would be far from perfect, *** Third, the sheer complexity of the proposed START treaty will probably result in unavoidable loopholes that arms control on its own cannot plug. In turn, this situation would jeopardize treaty ratification, Strategic defenses could help plug the loopholes. * Finally, Strategic Defense will be the only thoroughly reliable way to address the problem of accidental, unauthorized, or third-world "madman" launches of ballistic missiles. Concerns are no longer hypothetical. The Director of Central Intelligence testified recently that up to 15 developing nations could have a ballistic launch capability by the turn of the century. The instability of many regimes raises another frightening scenario -- who has authority to release missiles during periods of intense civil strife? As the nuclear and chemical club grows, this question will be asked more often. Controlling missile technology from the supply side is not enough -- ultimately we must have the capability to defend ourselves against ballistic missiles, One interesting possibility is that with a space-based defense, the U.S. could also defend other countries against rogue launches. Politics and Economics of SDI * The recent recommendation by the majority of the members of the House Armed Services Committee to cut the SDI budget by over a billion dollars is a shortsighted move, * Just at the time American ingenuity is starting to produce technological breakthroughs, SDI opponents are trying to reduce the funding to a level which could not sustain a viable program. * The strategic rationale for SDI must be made clearer to the American public and to their representatives in Congress. * Strategic modernization and strategic defense should not be allowed to become an either/or proposition -- as pointed out above, offenses and defenses are synergistic. ARMS CONTROL AGENCY TEL: 202-647-6721 Jun 30,89 15:31 No. .003 P.02 June 30, 1989 TALKING POINTS ON THE STRATEGIC DEFENSE INITIATIVE * The President is committed to the development and deployment of Strategic Defenses when they are ready. * By developing the means to defend against ballistic missiles that threaten us, we also lessen the incentives for aggression thus enhancing stability and deterrence, * The primary obstacles to SDI can generally be categorized as technological, strategic, political and economic, Technology and SDI * Though many complex scientific and engineering problems remain, there appear to be no technological show-stoppers for SDI. * have been achieved, A system popularly known as Brilliant In some areas such as kinetic kill, technological breakthroughs Pebbles is one example. Strategy and SDI * On June 29, 1989, Vice President Quayle outlined how SDI will one day alter the strategic equation between offense and defense, * of ballistic missiles, SDI's ultimate goal is the devaluation in the strategic utility * We are seeking a more stable balance that relies increasingly on defense. It would be preferable, but not necessary, if the Soviets would work with US to develop a cooperative arrangement for making this transition, * Progress on strategic offensive arms reductions and strategic defense are not mutually exclusive -- on the contrary, START and SDI are complementary. ** In general, the more progress we make toward offensive reductions, the more we will need to rely on SDI to help us deter, or deal with, possible Soviet cheating or breakout. SDI is an insurance policy for START. *** First, the Soviets' largely modern land-based ICBM force is projected to ensure them a hefty first-strike capability well into the 21st century. A reasonably reliable system of strategic defenses would diminish our anxiety over this ICBM threat.