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Originally Processed With FOIA(s): FOIA Number: S FOIA MARKER This is not a textual record. This is used as an administrative marker by the George Bush Presidential Library Staff. Record Group/Collection: George H.W. Bush Presidential Records Collection/Office of Origin: Speechwriting, White House Office of Series: Speech File Draft Files Subseries: Chron File, 1989-1993 OA/ID Number: 13519 Folder ID Number: 13519-011 Folder Title: Commonwealth Club 2/7/90 [OA 4391] [2] Stack: Row: Section: Shelf: Position: G 25 6 7 4 OFFICE OF THE VICE PRESIDENT WASHINGTON February 5, 1990 NOTE TO: CHRISS WINSTON FROM: BILL KRISTOL BK/KBC Here are two suggested changes to the Commonwealth Club speech. 1. Last paragraph on page 6, after "Of course, some complain of the cost of developing such technologies:" "In fact, the cost of strategic defenses has been falling rapidly. And the critics should further consider " Then, last sentence on page 6 - top of page 7, should read: "That is why I will seek to persuade the Soviets, in our Defense and Space talks, that in fact greater reliance on strategic defenses will contribute to a safer world." 2. The third full paragraph on page 7 should end, following "We must be ready:" "We must not leave America defenseless against such a threat." CC: Jim Cicconi 90 FEB 5 P3: 28 6 No matter how urgently we want to cross that bridge between nations, to cross to a new and more promising world, we should not, in our haste, abandon the path that brought us to this moment. First, as Americans have always done, our foremost goal is to prevent another world war. To do so, we will still need what the people in the Pentagon call a forward defense. Let me tell you what a forward defense means. America spans a continent, but in strategic terms, we are an island nation. And an island nation must defend itself before a threat can reach its shores. And that is why we will continue to have a forward presence -- fighting forces\\ and American troops\\ with global reach. Second, we will, of course, continue to reduce the likelihood of a nuclear war. And that is why I will aggressively pursue Strategic Arms Reduction Talks with the Soviet Union. But arms control and strategic modernization are not competing strategies. Rather, they can work together to make the world a safer place. Just this morning, I visited Lawrence Livermore Labs and met those visionary men and women who strive to make an all-out nuclear strike on our country, or a limited strike from a madman, even more unlikely than it is today. Of course, some complain of In fact, the cost of strategic defenses the cost of developing such technologies., They should first has been falling consider the cost of not doing all we can to protect the cities repally And and citizens of America. That is why I will seek to persuade the The critic greater release in 7 that in defenses con - Soviets, through our Defense and Space talks, to use SDI_to help will contribute a us-all make a transition to safer world. Let me now tell you the ways in which our 1991 defense strategy is a dramatic departure from the military strategies of the past. First, new threats are emerging outside the traditional East-West antagonism of the past 45 years. Ever since the Mayaguez incident, most conflicts involving U.S. forces -- like our actions in Libya or Panama -- have had nothing to do with Soviet expansionism. Nowhere was this more apparent than in the Persian Gulf two years ago, where only the U.S. Navy could secure the flow of oil to the industrial democracies. Even worse, there are 15 countries in the world that are developing ballistic missile technology, many with chemical and biological weapons. Despite our best efforts, nuclear weapons are proliferating. And inevitably high-tech weapons will fall into the hands of leaders whose hatred of America is well known. We must be ready. We must develop and deplay the Snategic Depease not leave America depenseless against such Anticative a Threat. Then there are the narco-gangsters -- already a threat to our national health and spirit. Now they are taking on the dimensions of a geopolitical force. And they must be dealt with as such -- by our military -- in the air and on the seas. III Clearly, in the future, we will need to be able to repel a missile, arrest a drug lord or protect a sealane. We will need forces adaptable to conditions anywhere in the world. We need Document No. OFFICE OF THE VICE PRESIDENT STAFFING MEMORANDUM DATE: ACTION/CONCURRENCE/COMMENT DUE BY: SUBJECT: ACTION FYI ACTION FYI KRISTOL X KREMER ABRAHAM PERNICE FERNEAU BALZANO DUGAN DeSutter x BECKWITH LORD X GRIBBIN WILSON ZOELLER REMARKS: RESPONSE: 90 FEB 5 P3: 34 Return to: Myrna Dugan Staff Secretary Room 267 456-6772 Document No. 110556SS WHITE HOUSE STAFFING MEMORANDUM DATE: 2/5/90 ACTION/CONCURRENCE/COMMENT DUE BY: 2/5/90 4:00 PM SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS: COMMONWEALTH CLUB ACTION FYI ACTION FYI VICE PRESIDENT MCCLURE SUNUNU NEWMAN SCOWCROFT PORTER DARMAN ROGICH BATES UNTERMEYER CARD ROGERS CICCONI WINSTON DEMAREST PINKERTON FITZWATER GRAY HAGIN REMARKS: Please forward any comments directly to Chriss Winston, Rm. 122, x2930, no later than 4:00 PM TODAY, Monday, February 5, with a copy to my office. Thank you. RESPONSE: James W. Cicconi Assistant to the President and Deputy to the Chief of Staff Ext. 2702 Davis/Martin January 29, 1990 Title: SF 1990 FEB -5 PM 12: 15 Draft: Three PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS: COMMONWEALTH CLUB, SAN FRANCISCO Noon, Wednesday, February 7th, 1990 ( (Acknowledgements to come. )) ( (A few minutes ago, I asked a 49er fan what he thought was the turning point in the Super Bowl. He said "the National Anthem. ) ) ((Of course, not all recent memories in the Bay Area have been pleasant ones. I'm sure you remember the last time I was here, after this city suffered a tragedy and found renewal. I remember a clutter of car wrecks, collapsed buildings, flattened freeways\ and a terrible black cloud rising from the Marina District. Some damage remains. But today I've seen something else -- the people of the Bay Area have stood up, dusted themselves off and rebuilt. The devastation and danger are past. Because you came together, San Francisco is as beautiful as ever\ -- San Francisco is back. ) ) I have come back to California for another reason, to give you -- no-nonsense, hardnosed businessmen and women that you are -- a straightforward, but hopeful, message about our national security. Yesterday, at Fort Irwin, I also thanked our men and women in uniform -- not just because they keep America safe and And today at Livermore National Laboratory, 2 free. I came to thank them because they help to make possible the wonderful changes that are sweeping the world. And as the threats to American security change, so too must our defense strategy. In 1986, defense expenditures consumed 6.5 percent of our Gross National Product. As you know, I just submitted my 1991 budget to Congress, which cuts defense for the unuch large. much large fifth year in a row -- to almost 5 percent of GNP. $ I am submitting this budget at a time when the postwar world we know -- the world that began in 1945 -- is changing before our very eyes. So to understand where we are going, let me first review where we have been and where we are today. The first generation of postwar leaders had the cautionary example of their predecessors. They remembered that visionary statesmen, after the First World War, had outlawed large navies. They remembered that their predecessors had even outlawed war itself. But no pact prevented World War Two. So by 1945 our leaders had acquired a patience, 11 a pragmatism, 11 born of a sober appraisal of the world as it was. And from Harry Truman, to John F. Kennedy, to Ronald Reagan, we paid any price, we bore any burden, in the defense of liberty. We paid with part of our national wealth. And many brave Americans paid with their very lives. Yet over the past 40 years, our leaders continued to seek peace even as they provided for war. It was during the Truman Administration, in this very city, that men and women of great vision and high ideals came from around the world to create a 3 parliament of nations. And so it was in San Francisco, 45 years ago, that the United Nations was born. Then, as now, the United States strove to balance its role as peace-keeper with that of peace-maker. We helped create the United Nations and NATO; we encouraged Soviet reform even as we rebuffed Soviet expansion. Those who crafted this new policy, and called it containment, predicted that if we blocked the easy path of expansion, then the Soviet Union would one day have to confront its inhumane, illogical system. The purpose of this confrontation was not to defeat or to humiliate the Soviets. The purpose was to lead to a "mellowing of the Soviet Union." It took a half a century to vindicate this strategy, and at long last we can say it works: And that is why the Cold War today is in retreat. That is good news, for no sane man or woman is nostalgic for the Cold War. We are inspired by the Revolution of '89 -- delighted to see a man of letters and conscience in Prague move from prison to the presidential palace. We are heartened to see the Berlin Wall fall, setting off a shockwave that upended a tyrant in Romania. And we are grateful for something more. The likelihood of a war with the Soviets has always been small, because of our him much strength and that of our Allies. Now, thanks to the courageous Thes what for reforms of a dynamic Soviet leader, the threat of war is smaller than ever before. Like Harold MacMillian before him, haven Also 5° him 4 President Gorbachev freely acknowledges that empire is a burden, more problem than protection. And so now "the winds of change" are shaping a new destiny for the nations of the Continent -- that of a Europe whole and free. We are taking the first steps across a bridge begun by others long ago. It is a bridge that can lead us from seemingly endless conflict to the promise of a lasting peace. But no matter how great the promise, a bridge between nations must be reinforced with realism. As President, I receive a briefing every morning from the Central Intelligence Agency. And I get from the CIA the best intelligence available to any world leader today. Yet I often find that the events reported to me by the CIA in the morning are latebrenking of that morning. overcome by the news in the evening. The world is simply moving too fast for any person or organization to forecast what will happen next. With so much that is unpredictable, the promising future we seek must be weighed against the realities of today. ourallies and by My most recent proposal, warmly received by President Gorbachev, was to reduce land forces on both sides in Central Europe to 195,000 troops. That's the prospect for change, and it holds great promise. But the reality? -- The Soviets still have almost 600,000 men under arms in Central Europe today. Another example: Because of the new openness in Moscow, we hope to slash the number of strategic weapons on both sides to 5 6,000. That's the prospect for change, and it too holds great promise. But the reality? -- the Soviets still have ((number)) strategic weapons. And they are still developing, at a furious - bombers, - SLBM2, - 55BNs, pace, two new mobile strategic weapons systems and a strategic defense initiative. I am your Commander-in-Chief. I am bound by the Constitution to defend and protect the United States of America. And I cannot, as some would have me do, predicate our defense on promising, but as of yet unfulfilled, hopes for the future. Our national defense strategy must not be a response to the professed intentions of other nations, but to the weapons they hold in their hands. That's the reality we face. You certainly don't do business on the basis of a promise. The banks you do business with expect collateral. And I will seek from the Soviets the collateral to implement a new peace. In international terms, collateral means: soldiers decommissioned, tanks dismantled, and nuclear missiles demolished. Some see our measured approach as endangering the process of change. I see our approach as essential to change, as the only way to a lasting peace. We have shown that American resolve leads to Soviet reform. We have shown that American strength is an essential prereguisite the catalyst for arms control. We are all excited by change in the East, but we must not let impatience, born of euphoria, ruin all we have achieved. 6 No matter how urgently we want to cross that bridge between nations, to cross to a new and more promising world, we should not, in our haste, abandon the path that brought us to this moment. First, as Americans have always done, our foremost goal is to. prevent another world war. To do so, we will still need what the people in the Pentagon call a forward defense. Let me tell you what a forward defense means. America spans a continent, but in strategic terms, we are an island nation. And an island nation must defend itself before a threat can reach its shores. And that is why we will continue to have a forward presence -- fighting forces\ and American troops\\ with global reach. Second, we will, of course, continue to reduce the likelihood of a nuclear war. And that is why I will aggressively pursue Strategic Arms Reduction Talks with the Soviet Union. But arms control and strategic modernization are not competing strategies. Rather, they can work together to make the world a safer place. National Just this morning, I visited Lawrence Livermore/Labs and met have contributed 50 much to making those visionary men and women who strive to make an all out survivable, cost effective, stratogic defense are defense against nuclear strike on our country, or a limited strike from a madman agressors and madmen alite -- a reality. Altrough we seldom hear that even more unlikely than it is today. Of course, some complain of anymore that stantegic defense is beyond the grass of our te chrolosy, many still quest the cost of developing such technologies. They should first consider the cost of not doing all we can to protect the cities continue working hand and citizens of America. That is why I will seek to persuade the But they should also see that developments such as Those saw today could bring strategic defenses well within our budgetary constraints, because 19115 semith SDI has declined stendily in cost and unlike many programs we are pursuing to Inhance Genera, every. if over ongoing 7 in or work with us to Soviets, through our Defense and Space talks to use SDI to help transition to greater reliame on defenses than offenses in our strategic NS all make a transition to safer world face posteining. Let me now tell you the ways in which our 1991 defense strategy is a dramatic departure from the military strategies of the past. First, new threats are emerging outside the traditional East-West antagonism of the past 45 years. Ever since the Mayaguez incident, most conflicts involving U.S. forces -- like our actions in Libya or Panama -- have had nothing to do with Soviet expansionism. Nowhere was this more apparent than in the Persian Gulf two years ago, where only the U.S. Navy could secure the flow of oil to the industrial democracies. Even worse, there are 15 countries in the world that are developing ballistic missile technology many with chemical and and nuclear or the capability to produce them. biological weapons Despite our best efforts, nuclear weapons are proliferating. And inevitably high-tech weapons will fall into the hands of leaders whose hatred of America is well known. We must be ready. Then there are the narco-gangsters -- already a threat to our national health and spirit. Now they are taking on the dimensions of a geopolitical force. And they must be dealt with as such -- by our military -- in the air and on the seas. III Clearly, in the future, we will need to be able to repel a missile, arrest a drug lord or protect a sealane. We will need forces adaptable to conditions anywhere in the world. We need 8 will, agility, readiness, sustainability. We will need speed and stealth. In short, we must now deter both a global war and limited conflicts with sophisticated new And for this reason, we and emerging doubly need to continue the modernization of our forces. It is my duty, and mine alone, to commit American fighting men to combat. And while the security of this nation is on my watch, the lives of American fighting men won't be traded for dollars.\\ Just yesterday, I visited at the National Training Center at Fort Irwin, near Barstow, where our fighting forces are preparing for combat. It was at this very base that we trained many of our troops who fought with such distinction in Panama. As other threats emerge on the horizon, we must be ready to fight under any conditions anywhere in the world. ((You know, I read that Khrushchev once spoke to the Commonwealth Club from lunch until 11 p.m.\\\ Perhaps he began his speech with these words: "Let me make just a few brief observations ) ) So I'll get to my final concern -- how all this change in our defense budget affects us. at home. Many speak of the peace dividend. Few discuss the short-term cost of peace. There will be costs as we cross the bridge to a better future -- for dislocated industries and workers, for disappointed men and women in the Armed Services who will return to civilian life, for whole communities. 9 But America has always been willing to pay the price of peace. I know that some of the bases that have been proposed for closure are in this area. So I have come to San Francisco today to assure you that if a base closes, it doesn't close federal concern and commitment. Civilians who are laid off will receive top priority for placement in other DOD positions. The Homeowner's Assistance Program will protect military and civilian personnel from falling real estate prices. And the Office of Economic Adjustment will work with communities to develop powerful new economic assets, new ways to use old bases. The Bible speaks of beating swords into plowshares. We are transforming military runways into municipal airports; military bases into industrial parks and community colleges; and missile hangers into factories. ( (NSC Insert)) I have no doubt the American people will support these measures for a continued strong defense. My travels around America tell me that. But to have the means to negotiate reductions and ensure the peace, I will need the support, cooperation and consultation of Congress. We can now envision a time when military competition is past; when all the competitive instincts of modern man will be diverted to commerce; when the warriors of the future will be businessmen and women like you, briefcase in hand. 10 You know, I started by joking about the 49ers winning the Super Bowl during the National Anthem. But I don't care how many passes Joe Montana completed. He knew better than to rest on his laurels at the beginning of the fourth quarter. So should we. If Congress will work with me, then peace itself will be the greatest dividend of all. Before us is a bridge to a new and better world. The way is clear. It's time to cross. Thank you for inviting me to San Francisco. God bless you, and God bless America. # # # THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON February 5, 1990 MEMORANDUM FOR CHRISS WINSTON FROM: JIM PINKERTON IP by A.F. SUBJECT: Commonwealth Club Draft Speech pg. 2, para. 5, line 4 paid any price, bore any burden " The trouble with this famous phrase is that it is bittersweet -- downright bitter to so many who associate these words with a national failure of will in Vietnam. As a substitute, any language about sacrifice will suffice, such as the following from Churchill's "Give us the tools " speech (which should be checked if used) : "Neither the sudden shock of battle, nor the long drawn out trials of vigilance and exertion [wore] us down." 3,4,1 " for no sane man or woman is nostalgic for the Cold War. " This otherwise unobjectionable line has the great danger of tempting the media to interpret it as a slap at Deputy Secretary Eagleburger because of a remark he made last year. This is not just a question of an Administration official, however. We also no don't want to be seen as dismissing the legitimate anti-communism of some who are worried about a too hasty letting down of our guard. While we defer to any NSC comments to the contrary, we urge deleting this line. 4,1,2 : 'winds of change' " While we are glad to see Harold Macmillan finally getting credit for his most famous line, it seems very risky to equate the British Empire with the Soviet Empire, or, for that matter, Harold Macmillan, an elected leader of a democratic country and ally, compared with the leader of the Soviet Union. This is a very glib, facile comparison. 5,2,1 "I am your Commander-In-Chief. " This seems a little too chest-beating in tone. We suggest the more usual "As Commande In Chi ef 8,2,6 " the lives of American fighting men won't be traded (more) 2 for dollars. " This is much too strong and merits either deleting or substantial toning down. It is not overstating it to say that we risk here accusations of demagoguery and neo-McCarthyism toward our opponents who wish to cut defense dollars more than the Administration does. 8,3,1 "Just yesterday, I visited Fort Irwin " Since this is a repeat of a phrase on the first page, we suggest adding "As I mentioned " 9,2,9 " missile hangers " "Hangers" should be "hangars." 10,1,5 " then peace itself will be the greatest dividend of all." A super ending to the speech. ### Dur challenge is to manage this period of Transation = world of today to the world tomorrow — and sateguard they of the security and of america in the process THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON February 5, 1990 MEMORANDUM FOR CHRISS WINSTON Deputy Assistant to the President for Communications FROM: BRENT O. HATCH B/A Associate Counsel to the President SUBJECT: Presidential Remarks - ---- Commonwealth Club Counsel's office has reviewed the above-referenced Presidential remarks. We have no legal objections. Thank you for the opportunity to review this matter. CC: James W. Cicconi 90 FEB 5 P5:03 Document No. 110556SS WHITE HOUSE STAFFING MEMORANDUM DATE: 2/5/90 ACTION/CONCURRENCE/COMMENT DUE BY: 2/5/90 4:00 PM SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS: COMMONWEALTH CLUB ACTION FYI ACTION FYI VICE PRESIDENT MCCLURE SUNUNU NEWMAN SCOWCROFT PORTER DARMAN ROGICH BATES UNTERMEYER CARD ROGERS CICCONI WINSTON DEMAREST PINKERTON FITZWATER GRAY HAGIN REMARKS: Please forward any comments directly to Chriss Winston, Rm. 122, x2930, no later than 4:00 PM TODAY, Monday, February 5, with a copy to my office. Thank you. RESPONSE: James W. Cicconi Assistant to the President and Deputy to the Chief of Staff Ext. 2702 Davis/Martin January 29, 1990 1990 FEB -5 PM 12: 15 Title: SF Draft: Three PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS: COMMONWEALTH CLUB, SAN FRANCISCO Noon, Wednesday, February 7th, 1990 ( (Acknowledgements to come.)) (A few minutes ago, I asked a 49er fan what he thought was the turning point in the Super Bowl. He said "the National Anthem. "))\\\ ((Of course, not all recent memories in the Bay Area have been pleasant ones. I'm sure you remember the last time I was here, after this city suffered a tragedy and found renewal. I remember a clutter of car wrecks, collapsed buildings, flattened freeways 11 and a terrible black cloud rising from the Marina District. Some damage remains. But today I've seen something else -- the people of the Bay Area have stood up, dusted themselves off and rebuilt. The devastation and danger are past. Because you came together, San Francisco is as beautiful as ever\ -- San Francisco is back.))\\\ I have come back to California for another reason, to give you -- no-nonsense, hardnosed businessmen and women that you are -- a straightforward, but hopeful, message about our national security. Yesterday, at Fort Irwin, I also thanked our men and women in uniform -- not just because they keep America safe and 2 free. I came to thank them because they help to make possible the wonderful changes that are sweeping the world. And as the threats to American security change, so too must our defense strategy. In 1986, defense expenditures consumed 6.5 percent of our Gross National Product. As you know, I just submitted my 1991 budget to Congress, which cuts defense for the fifth year in a row -- to almost 5 percent of GNP. I am submitting this budget at a time when the postwar world we know -- the world that began in 1945 -- is changing before our very eyes. So to understand where we are going, let me first review where we have been and where we are today. The first generation of postwar leaders had the cautionary example of their predecessors. They remembered that visionary statesmen, after the First World War, had outlawed large navies. They remembered that their predecessors had even outlawed war itself. But no pact prevented World War Two. So by 1945 our leaders had acquired a patience, a pragmatism, \\ born of a sober appraisal of the world as it was. And from Harry Truman, to John F. Kennedy, to Ronald Reagan, we paid any price, we bore any burden, in the defense of liberty. We paid with part of our national wealth. And many brave Americans paid with their very lives. Yet over the past 40 years, our leaders continued to seek peace even as they provided for war. It was during the Truman Administration, in this very city, that men and women of great vision and high ideals came from around the world to create a 3 parliament of nations. And so it was in San Francisco, 45 years ago, that the United Nations was born. Then, as now, the United States strove to balance its role as peace-keeper with that of peace-maker. We helped create the United Nations and NATO; we encouraged Soviet reform even as we rebuffed Soviet expansion. Those who crafted this new policy, and called it containment, predicted that if we blocked the easy path of expansion, then the Soviet Union would one day have to confront its inhumane, illogical system. The purpose of this confrontation was not to defeat or to humiliate the Soviets. The purpose was to lead to a "mellowing of the Soviet Union." It took a half a century to vindicate this strategy, and at long last we can say it works: And that is why the Cold War today is in retreat. That is good news, for no sane man or woman is nostalgic for the Cold War. We are inspired by the Revolution of '89 -- delighted to see a man of letters and conscience in Prague move from prison to the presidential palace. We are heartened to see the Berlin Wall fall, setting off a shockwave that upended a tyrant in Romania. And we are grateful for something more. The likelihood of a war with the Soviets has always been small, because of our strength and that of our Allies. Now, thanks to the courageous reforms of a dynamic Soviet leader, the threat of war is smaller than ever before. Like Harold MacMillian before him, 4 President Gorbachev freely acknowledges that empire is a burden, more problem than protection. And so now "the winds of change" are shaping a new destiny for the nations of the Continent -- that of a Europe whole and free. We are taking the first steps across a bridge begun by others long ago. It is a bridge that can lead us from seemingly endless conflict to the promise of a lasting peace. But no matter how great the promise, a bridge between nations must be reinforced with realism. As President, I receive a briefing every morning from the Central Intelligence Agency. And I get from the CIA the best intelligence available to any world leader today. Yet I often find that the events reported to me by the CIA in the morning are overcome by the news in the evening. The world is simply moving too fast for any person or organization to forecast what will happen next. With so much that is unpredictable, the promising future we seek must be weighed against the realities of today. My most recent proposal, warmly received by President Gorbachev, was to reduce land forces on both sides in Central Europe to 195,000 troops. That's the prospect for change, and it holds great promise. But the reality? -- The Soviets still have almost 600,000 men under arms in Central Europe today. Another example: Because of the new openness in Moscow, we hope to slash the number of strategic weapons on both sides to 5 6,000. That's the prospect for change, and it too holds great promise. But the reality? -- the Soviets still have ((number)) strategic weapons. And they are still developing, at a furious pace, two new mobile strategic weapons systems and a strategic defense initiative. I am your Commander-in-Chief. I am bound by the Constitution to defend and protect the United States of America. And I cannot, as some would have me do, predicate our defense on promising, but as of yet unfulfilled, hopes for the future. Our national defense strategy must not be a response to the professed intentions of other nations, but to the weapons they hold in their hands. 11 That's the reality we face. You certainly don't do business on the basis of a promise. The banks you do business with expect collateral. And I will seek from the Soviets the collateral to implement a new peace. In international terms, collateral means: soldiers decommissioned, tanks dismantled, and nuclear missiles demolished. Some see our measured approach as endangering the process of change. I see our approach as essential to change, as the only way to a lasting peace. We have shown that American resolve leads to Soviet reform. We have shown that American strength is the catalyst for arms control. We are all excited by change in the East, but we must not let impatience, born of euphoria, ruin all we have achieved. 6 No matter how urgently we want to cross that bridge between nations, to cross to a new and more promising world, we should not, in our haste, abandon the path that brought us to this moment. First, as Americans have always done, our foremost goal is to prevent another world war. To do so, we will still need what the people in the Pentagon call a forward defense. Let me tell you what a forward defense means. America spans a continent, but in strategic terms, we are an island nation. And an island nation must defend itself before a threat can reach its shores. And that is why we will continue to have a forward presence -- fighting forces\\ and American troops\\ with global reach. Second, we will, of course, continue to reduce the likelihood of a nuclear war. And that is why I will aggressively pursue Strategic Arms Reduction Talks with the Soviet Union. But arms control and strategic modernization are not competing strategies. Rather, they can work together to make the world a safer place. Just this morning, I visited Lawrence Livermore Labs and met those visionary men and women who strive to make an all-out nuclear strike on our country, or a limited strike from a madman, even more unlikely than it is today. Of course, some complain of the cost of developing such technologies. They should first consider the cost of not doing all we can to protect the cities and citizens of America. That is why I will seek to persuade the 7 Soviets, through our Defense and Space talks, to use SDI to help us all make a transition to safer world. Let me now tell you the ways in which our 1991 defense strategy is a dramatic departure from the military strategies of the past. First, new threats are emerging outside the traditional East-West antagonism of the past 45 years. Ever since the Mayaguez incident, most conflicts involving U.S. forces -- like our actions in Libya or Panama -- have had nothing to do with Soviet expansionism. Nowhere was this more apparent than in the Persian Gulf two years ago, where only the U.S. Navy could secure the flow of oil to the industrial democracies. Even worse, there are 15 countries in the world that are developing ballistic missile technology, many with chemical and biological weapons. Despite our best efforts, nuclear weapons are proliferating. And inevitably high-tech weapons will fall into the hands of leaders whose hatred of America is well known. We must be ready. Then there are the narco-gangsters -- already a threat to our national health and spirit. Now they are taking on the dimensions of a geopolitical force. And they must be dealt with as such -- by our military -- in the air and on the seas.\\\ Clearly, in the future, we will need to be able to repel a missile, arrest a drug lord or protect a sealane. We will need forces adaptable to conditions anywhere in the world. We need 8 will agility, readiness, sustainability. We will need speed and stealth. In short, we must now deter both a global war and limited conflicts with sophisticated new powers. And for this reason, we doubly need to continue the modernization of our forces. It is my duty, and mine alone, to commit American fighting men to combat. And while the security of this nation is on my watch, the lives of American fighting men won't be traded for dollars.\ Just yesterday, I visited at the National Training Center at Fort Irwin, near Barstow, where our fighting forces are preparing for combat. It was at this very base that we trained many of our troops who fought with such distinction in Panama. As other threats emerge on the horizon, we must be ready to fight under any conditions anywhere in the world. ((You know, I read that Khrushchev once spoke to the Commonwealth Club from lunch until 11 p.m.\\\ Perhaps he began his speech with these words: "Let me make just a few brief observations ) ) So I'll get to my final concern -- how all this change in our defense budget affects us at home. Many speak of the peace dividend. Few discuss the short-term cost of peace. There will be costs as we cross the bridge to a better future -- for dislocated industries and workers, for disappointed men and women in the Armed Services who will return to civilian life, for whole communities. 9 But America has always been willing to pay the price of peace. I know that some of the bases that have been proposed for closure are in this area. So I have come to San Francisco today to assure you that if a base closes, it doesn't close federal concern and commitment. 11 Civilians who are laid off will receive top priority for placement in other DOD positions. The Homeowner's Assistance Program will protect military and civilian personnel from falling real estate prices. And the Office of Economic Adjustment will work with communities to develop powerful new economic assets, new ways to use old bases. The Bible speaks of beating swords into plowshares. We are transforming military runways into municipal airports; military bases into industrial parks and community colleges; and missile hangers into factories. ( (NSC Insert)) I have no doubt the American people will support these measures for a continued strong defense. My travels around America tell me that. But to have the means to negotiate reductions and ensure the peace, I will need the support, cooperation and consultation of Congress. We can now envision a time when military competition is past; when all the competitive instincts of modern man will be diverted to commerce; when the warriors of the future will be businessmen and women like you, briefcase in hand. 10 You know, I started by joking about the 49ers winning the Super Bowl during the National Anthem. But I don't care how many passes Joe Montana completed. He knew better than to rest on his laurels at the beginning of the fourth quarter. So should we. If Congress will work with me, then peace itself will be the greatest dividend of all.\\\ Before us is a bridge to a new and better world. The way is clear. It's time to cross. Thank you for inviting me to San Francisco. God bless you, and God bless America. # # # PRESIDENT THE OF THE OFFICE UNITED OFFICE ONE HAME STRIET EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET WASHINGTON, D.C. 20503 NOTICE: Enclosed are comments from staff members of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). Such comments do not necessarily represent the official position of the Director of OMB or of the Office of Management and Budget. If you wish to have the Director's personal comments, please let me know -- and contact me if you have any questions. David J. Haun Executive Assistant to the Director 18 : Pd S 833 06 Document No. 110556SS WHITE HOUSE STAFFING MEMORANDUM DATE: 2/5/90 ACTION/CONCURRENCE/COMMENT DUE BY: 2/5/90 4:00 PM SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS: COMMONWEALTH CLUB ACTION FYI ACTION FYI VICE PRESIDENT MCCLURE SUNUNU NEWMAN SCOWCROFT PORTER DARMAN ROGICH BATES UNTERMEYER CARD ROGERS CICCONI WINSTON DEMAREST PINKERTON FITZWATER GRAY HAGIN REMARKS: Please forward any comments directly to Chriss Winston, Rm. 122, x2930, no later than 4:00 PM TODAY, Monday, February 5, with a copy to my office. Thank you. RESPONSE: See comments James W. Cicconi Assistant to the President and Deputy to the Chief of Staff Ext. 2702 Davis/Martin January 29, 1990 Title: SF 1990 FEB -5 PM 12: 15 Draft: Three PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS: COMMONWEALTH CLUB, SAN FRANCISCO Noon, Wednesday, February 7th, 1990 ( (Acknowledgements to come.) ) moll x3060 ( (A few minutes ago, I asked a 49ers fan what he thought was the turning point in the Super Bowl. He said "the National Anthem. "))\\\ ( (Of course, not all recent memories in the Bay Area have been pleasant ones. I'm sure you remember the last time I was mollin here, after this city suffered a tragedy and found renewal. I X3060 remember a clutter of car wrecks, collapsed buildings, flattened freeways\\ and a terrible black cloud rising from the Marina District. Some damage remains. But today I've seen something else -- the people of the Bay Area have stood up, dusted themselves off and rebuilt. The devastation and danger are past. Because you came together, San Francisco is as beautiful as ever) -- San Francisco is back. ) ) I have come back to California for another reason, to give Mollin you -- no-nonsense, hardnosed businessmen and women that you are x3060 and -- a straightforward but hopeful message about our national security. Yesterday, at Fort Irwin, I also thanked our men and women in uniform -- not just because they keep America safe and 2 free. I came to thank them because they help to make possible the wonderful changes that are sweeping the world. And as the threats to American security change, so too must our defense strategy. In 1986, defense expenditures consumed 6.5 percent of our Gross National Product. As you know, I just submitted my 1991 budget to Congress, which cuts defense for the fifth year in a row -- to almost 5 percent of GNP. I am submitting this budget at a time when the postwar world Moley have we known the world that began in 1945 -- is changing before our 43060 very eyes. So to understand where we are going, let me first review where we have been and where we are today. The first generation of postwar leaders had the cautionary example of their predecessors. They remembered that visionary statesmen, after the First World War, had outlawed large navies. They remembered that their predecessors had even outlawed war itself. But no pact prevented World War Two. So by 1945 our leaders had acquired a patience, a pragmatism, 11 born of a sober appraisal of the world as it was. And from Harry Truman, to John F. Kennedy, to Ronald Reagan, we paid any price, we bore any burden, in the defense of liberty. We paid with part of our national wealth. And many brave Americans paid with their very lives. Yet over the past 40 years, our leaders continued to seek peace even as they provided for war. It was during the Truman Administration, in this very city, that men and women of great vision and high ideals came from around the world to create a 3 parliament of nations. And so it was in San Francisco, 45 years ago, that the United Nations was born. Then, as now, the United States strove to balance its role as peace-keeper with that of peace-maker. We helped create the United Nations and NATO; we encouraged Soviet reform even as we Mollin rebuffed Soviet expansion. X3060 Those who crafted this new policy, and called it containment, predicted that if we blocked the easy path of expansion, then the Soviet Union would one day have to confront its inhumane, illogical system. The purpose of this policy more X3060 confrontation was not to defeat or to humiliate the Soviets. The purpose was to lead to a "mellowing of the Soviet Union." It achieve purpose but now took a half a century to vindicate this strategy and at long last we can say it works: And that is why the Cold War today is in retreat. That is good news, for no sane man or woman is nostalgic for the Cold War. We are inspired by the Revolution of '89 -- delighted to see a man of letters and conscience in Prague move from prison to the presidential palace. We are heartened to see overthrew Mollin the Berlin Wall fall, setting off a shockwave that upended a X3060 tyrant in Romania. And we are grateful for something more. The likelihood of a war with the Soviets has always been small, because of our strength and that of our Allies. Now, thanks to the courageous reforms of a dynamic Soviet leader, the threat of war is smaller than ever before. Like Harold MacMillian before him, 4 President Gorbachev freely acknowledges that empire is a burden, more problem than protection. And so now "the winds of change" are shaping a new destiny for the nations of the Continent -- that of a Europe whole and free. Mollin X3060 We are taking the first steps across a bridge begun by others long ago. It is a bridge that can lead us from seemingly endless conflict to the promise of a lasting peace. But no that matter how great the promise, a bridge between nations must be reinforced with realism. As President, I receive a briefing every morning from the Central Intelligence Agency. And I get from the CIA the best intelligence available to any world leader today. Yet I often find that the events reported to me by the CIA in the morning are overcome by the news in the evening. The world is simply moving too fast for any person or organization to forecast what will happen next. With so much that is unpredictable, the promising future we seek must be weighed against the realities of today. My most recent proposal, warmly received by President Gorbachev, was to reduce land forces on both sides in Central Europe to 195,000 troops. That's the prospect for change, and it holds great promise. But the reality? -- The Soviets still have almost 600,000 men under arms in Central Europe today. Another example: Because of the new openness in Moscow, we hope to slash the number of strategic weapons on both sides to 5 6,000. That's the prospect for change, and it too holds great promise. But the reality? -- the Soviets still have ( (number)) Moneson strategic weapons. And they are still developing, deploying at a furious rafid pace, two new mobile strategic weapons systems and/a developing strategic defense initiative. I am your Commander-in-Chief. I am bound by the Constitution to defend and protect the United States of America. And I cannot, as some would have me do, predicate our defense on promising, but as of yet unfulfilled, hopes for the future. Our national defense strategy must not be a response to the professed intentions of other nations, but to the weapons they hold in their hands. That's the reality we face. just a moller You certainly don't do business on the basis of a promise. X3060 The banks you do business with expect collateral. And I will seek from the Soviets the collateral to implement a new peace. In international terms, collateral means: soldiers decommissioned, tanks dismantled, and nuclear missiles demolished. Some see our measured approach as endangering the process of change. I see our approach as essential to change, as the only way to a lasting peace. We have shown that American resolve leads to Soviet reform. We have shown that American strength is the catalyst for arms control. We are all excited by change in the East, but we must not let impatience, born of euphoria, ruin all we have achieved. 6 No matter how urgently we want to cross that bridge between better Moll nations, to cross to a new and more promising world, we should X3060 not, in our haste, abandon the path that brought us to this point moment First, as Americans have always done, our foremost goal is mole *3060 to prevent another world war. To do so, we will still need what the people in the Pentagon call a forward defense. Let me tell as it has always been Molls 143.60 you what a forward defense means. America spans a continent, but for America An ? } 3 in strategic terms, we are an island nation. And an island nation must defend itself before a threat can reach its shores. Sureey with and island below marrica not Hatsn and - the And that is why we will continue to have a forward presence -- fighting forces\ and American troops\\ with global reach. Second, we will, of course, continue to reduce the Sam pay. sene 6 likelihood of a nuclear war. And that is why I will aggressively pursue Strategic Arms Reduction Talks with the Soviet Union. But arms control and strategic modernization are not competing strategies. Rather, they can work together to make the world a safer place. Just this morning, I visited Lawrence Livermore Labs and met those visionary men and women who strive to make an all-out nuclear strike on our country, or a limited strike from a madman, even more unlikely than it is today. Of course, some complain of the cost of developing such technologies. They should first consider the cost of not doing all we can to protect the cities and citizens of America. That is why I will seek to persuade the 7 Soviets, through our Defense and Space talks, to use SDI to help us all make a transition to safer world. Let me now tell you the ways in which our 1991 defense strategy is a dramatic departure from the military strategies of the past. First, new threats are emerging outside the traditional East-West antagonism of the past 45 years. Ever since the Mayaguez incident, most conflicts involving U.S. forces -- like our actions in Libya or Panama -- have had nothing to do with Soviet expansionism. Nowhere was this more apparent than in the Persian Gulf two years ago, where only the U.S. Navy could secure the flow of oil to the industrial democracies. Even worse, there are 15 countries in the world that are developing ballistic missile technology, many with chemical and biological weapons. Despite our best efforts, nuclear weapons are proliferating. And inevitably high-tech weapons will fall into the hands of leaders whose hatred of America is well known. We must be ready. Then there are the narco-gangsters -- already a threat to our national health and spirit. Now they are taking on the dimensions of a geopolitical force. And they must be dealt with as such -- by our military -- in the air and on the seas. Clearly, in the future, we will need to be able to repel a missile, arrest a drug lord or protect a sealane. We will need forces adaptable to conditions anywhere in the world. We need 8 meet will agility, readiness, sustainability. We will need speed and x3060 stealth. In short, we must now deter both a global war and limited conflicts with sophisticated new powers. And for this reason, we doubly need to continue the modernization of our forces. It is my duty, and mine alone, to commit American fighting men to combat. And while the security of this nation is on my watch, the lives of American fighting men won't be traded for dollars. Just yesterday, I visited at the National Training Center at Fort Irwin, near Barstow, where our fighting forces are preparing for combat. It was at this very base that we trained many of our troops who fought with such distinction in Panama. As other threats emerge on the horizon, we must be ready to fight under any conditions anywhere in the world. ( (You know, I read that Khrushchev once spoke to the Commonwealth Club from lunch until 11 p.m.\\\ Perhaps he began his speech with these words: "Let me make just a few brief observations ))\\\ So I'll get to my final concern -- how all this change in our defense budget affects us at home. Many speak of the peace dividend. Few discuss the short-term cost of peace. There will be costs as we cross the bridge to a better future -- for dedicated dislocated industries and workers, for disappointed men and women beforced Mean in the Armed Services who will return to civilian life, for whole X3060 communities. 9 But America has always been willing to pay the price of peace. I know that some of the bases that have been proposed for closure are in this area. So I have come to San Francisco today to assure you that if a base closes, it doesn't close federal concern and commitment. 11 Civilians who are laid off will receive top priority for placement in other DOD positions. The Homeowner's Assistance Program will protect military and civilian personnel from falling real estate prices. And the Office of Economic Adjustment will work with communities to develop powerful new economic assets, new ways to use old bases. The Bible speaks of beating swords into plowshares. We are transforming military runways into municipal airports; military bases into industrial parks and community colleges; and missile hangers into factories. ( (NSC Insert)) know molen I have no doubt the American people will support these X3060 measures for a continued strong defense. My travels around America tell me that. But to have the means to negotiate reductions and ensure the peace, I will need the support, cooperation and consultation of Congress. We can now envision a time when military competition is past; when all the competitive instincts of modern man will be diverted to commerce; when the warriors of the future will be businessmen and women like you, briefcase in hand. 10 You know, I started by joking about the 49ers winning the Super Bowl during the National Anthem. But I don't care how many passes Joe Montana completed. He knew better than to rest on his laurels at the beginning of the fourth quarter. So should we. If Congress will work with me, then peace itself will be the greatest dividend of all. Before us is a bridge to a new and better world. The way is clear. It's time to cross. Thank you for inviting me to San Francisco. God bless you, and God bless America. # # # SENT BY:Xerox Telecopier 7020 ; 2- 5-90 ; 6:40PM ; 2024562397- 2024566218;# 1 Document No. 110556SS WHITE HOUSE STAFFING MEMORANDUM DATE: 2/5/90 ACTION/CONCURRENCE/COMMENT DUE BY: 2/5/90 4:00 PM SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS: COMMONWEALTH CLUB ACTION FYI ACTION FYI VICE PRESIDENT MCCLURE SUNUNU NEWMAN SCOWCROFT PORTER DARMAN ROGICH BATES UNTERMEYER CARD ROGERS CICCONI WINSTON DEMAREST PINKERTON FITZWATER GRAY HAGIN REMARKS: Please forward any comments directly to Chriss Winston, Rm. 122, x2930, no later than 4:00 PM TODAY, Monday, February 5, with a copy to my office. Thank you. RESPONSE: All 25 from Shake changes 06 James W. Cicconi Assistant to the President and Deputy to the Chief of Staff Ext. 2702 2024562397- SENT BY:Xerox Telecopier 7020 ; 2- 5-90 state ; 6:41PM ; Davidson 20245662181# 2 3 lynnett-3490 parliament of nations. And so it was in San Francisco, 45 years ago, that the United Nations was born. Then, as now, the United States strove to balance its role as peace-keeper with that of peace-maker. We helped create the United Nations and NATO; we encouraged Soviet reform even as we rebuffed Soviet expansion. Those who crafted this new policy, and called it containment, predicted that if we blocked the easy path of expansion, then the Soviet Union would one day have to confront its inhumane, illogical system. The purpose of this confrontation was not to defeat or to humiliate the Soviets. The purpose was to lead to a "mellowing of the Soviet Union." It took a half a century to vindicate this strategy, and at long last we can say it works: And that is why the Cold War today is in retreat. III That is good news, for no sane man or woman is nostalgic for the Cold War. We are inspired by the Revolution of '89 -- delighted to see a man of letters and conscience in Prague move from prison to the presidential palace. We are heartened to see the Berlin Wall fall, setting off & shockwave that upended a tyrant in Romania. And we are grateful for something more. The likelihood of a war with the Soviets has always been small, because of our strength and that of our Allies. Now, thanks to the courageous reforms of a dynamic Soviet leader, the threat of var is smaller than ever before. Like Harold MacMillian before him, Weelihood we were so Persible that we have But the consequences of even that small done all that is in our power to defend against it. SENT BY:Xerox Telecopier 7020 ; 2- 5-90 ; 6:41PM ; 2024562397-> 2024566218:# 3 4 President Gorbachev freely acknowledges that empire is a burden, more problem than protection. And so now "the winds of change" are shaping a new destiny for the nations of the Continent -- that of a Europe whole and free. We are taking the first steps across a bridge begun by others long ago. It is a bridge that can lead us from seemingly endless conflict to the promise of a lasting peace. But no matter how great the promise, a bridge between nations must be reinforced with realism. As President, I receive a briefing every morning from the Central Intelligence Agency. And I get from the CIA the best intelligence available to any world leader today. Yet I often find that the events reported to me by the CIA in the morning are overcome by the news in the evening. The world is simply moving too fast for any person or organization to forecast what will happen next. With so much that is unpredictable, the promising future we seek must be weighed against realities My most recent proposal, warmly received by President Gorbachev, was to reduce land forces on both sides in Central Europe to 195,000 troops. That's the prospect for change, and it holds great promise. But the reality? -- The Soviets still have almost 600,000 men under arms in Central Europe today. Another example: Because of the new openness in Moscow, we hope to slash the number of strategic weapons on both sides to SENT BY:Xerox Telecopier 7020 ; 2- 5-90 ; 6:42PM ; 2024562397-> 2024566218:# 4 5 6,000. That's the prospect for change, and it too holds great promise. But the reality? -- the Soviets still have ((number)) strategic weapons. And they are still developing, at a furious pace, two new mobile strategic weapons systems and a strategic defense initiative. I am your Commander-in-Chief. I am bound by the Constitution to defend and protect the United States of America. And I cannot, as some would have me do, predicate our defense on promising, but as of yet unfulfilled, hopes for the future. Our national defense strategy must not be a response to the professed intentions of other nations, but to the weapons they hold in their hands. That's the reality we face. You certainly don't do business on the basis of a promise. The banks you do business with expect collateral. And I will seek from the Soviets the collateral to implement a new peace. sovier In international terms, collateral means: Soldiers decommissioned, tanks dismantled, and nuclear missiles demolished. Some see our measured approach as endangering the process of change. I see our approach as essential to change, as the only way to a lasting peace. We have shown that American resolve leads to Soviet reform. We have shown that American strength is the catalyst for arms control. We are all excited by change in the East, but we must not let impatience, born of euphoria, ruin all we have achieved. SENT BY:Xerox Telecopier 7020 ; 2- 5-90 ; 6:42PM ; 2024562397- 2024566218;# 5 No matter how urgently we want to cross that bridge between nations, to cross to a new and more promising world, we should not, in our haste, abandon the path that brought us to this moment. First, as Americans have always done, our foremost goal is to prevent another world war. To do so, we will still need what the people in the Pentagon call a forward defense. Let me tell you what a forward defense means. America spans a continent, but in strategic terms, we are an island nation. And an island nation must defend itself before a threat can reach its shores. And that is why we will continue to have a forward presence - fighting forces\\ and American troops\\ with global reach. Second, we will, of course, continue to reduce the likelihood of a nuclear war. And that is why I will aggressively pursus Strategic Arms Reduction Talks with the Soviet Union. But arms control and strategic modernization are not competing strategies. Rather, they can work together to make the world a safer place. Just this morning, I visited Lawrence Livermore Labs and met those visionary men and women who strive to make an all-out nuclear strike on our country, or a limited strike from a madman, even more unlikely than it is today. of course, some complain of the cost of developing such technologies. They should first consider the cost of not doing all we can to protect America. That is why I will seek to persuade the SENT BY:Xerox Telecopier 7020 ; 2- 5-90 ; 6:43PM ; 2024562397- 2024566218;# 6 7 Soviets, through our Defense and Space talks, to use SDI to help us all make a transition to safer world. Let me now tell you the ways in which our 1991 defense strategy is a dramatic departure from the military strategies of the past. First, new threats are emerging outside the traditional East-West antagonism of the past 45 years. Ever since the Mayagues incident, most conflicts involving U.S. forces -- like our actions in Libya or Panama -- have had nothing to do with Soviet expansionism. Nowhere was this more apparent than in the took the lead of other Persian Gulf two years ago, where the U.S. Navy secure the flow of oil to the industrial democracies. nations CANCERNED Even worse, there are 15 countries in the world that are to developing ballistic missile technology, many with chemical and biological weapons. Despite our best efforts, nuclear weapons are proliferating. And inevitably high-tech weapons will fall into the hands of leaders whose hatred of America is well known. We must be ready.\\ and contempforcivilizednoms Then there are the narco-gangsters -- already a threat to our national health and spirit. Now they are taking on the dimensions of a geopolitical force. And they must be dealt with as such -- by our military -- in the air and on the seas.\\\ seas. Clearly, in the future, we will need to be able to repel a missile, arrest a drug lord or protect a sealane. We will need forces adaptable to conditions anywhere in the world. We need SENT BY:Xerox Telecopier 7020 ; 2- 5-90 ; 6:43PM ; 2024562397- 2024566218;# 7 will agility, readiness, sustainability. We will need speed and stealth. In short, we must now deter both a global war and limited conflicts withVsophisticated new And reason, we irrepormble powers wielding terrible for this weapons doubly need to continue the modernization of our forces. It is my duty, and mine alone, to commit American fighting men to combat. And while the security of this nation is on my watch, the lives of American fighting men wen't be traded for dollars.\\ Just yesterday, I visited at the National Training Center at Fort Irwin, near Barstow, where our fighting forces are preparing for combat. It was at this very base that we trained many of our troops who fought with such distinction in Panama. As other threats emerge on the horison, we must be ready to fight under any conditions anywhere in the world.\\ ((You know, I read that Khrushchev once spoke to the Commonwealth Club from lunch until 11 p.m.\\\ Perhaps he began his speech with these words: "Let me make just a few brief observations ) so I'll get to my final concern -- how all this change in our defense budget affects us at home. Many speak of the peace dividend. Few discuss the short-term cost of peace. There will be costs as we cross the bridge to a better future -- for dislocated industries and workers, for disappointed men and women in the Armed Services who will return to civilian life, for whole communities. Document No. 110556SS WHITE HOUSE STAFFING MEMORA 0913 DATE: 2/5/90 ACTION/CONCURRENCE/COMMENT DUE BY: 2/5/90 4:00 PM SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS: COMMONWEALTH CLUB ACTION FYI ACTION FYI VICE PRESIDENT MCCLURE SUNUNU NEWMAN SCOWCROFT PORTER DARMAN ROGICH BATES UNTERMEYER CARD ROGERS CICCONI WINSTON DEMAREST PINKERTON FITZWATER GRAY HAGIN REMARKS: Please forward any comments directly to Chriss Winston, Rm. 122, x2930, no later than 4:00 PM TODAY, Monday, February 5, with a copy to my office. Thank you. RESPONSE: TO: CHRISS WINSTON NSC clears the Presidential remarks for the Commonwealth Club with changes as marked. Brent Scowcroft James W. Cicconi CC: James W. Cicconi Assistant to the President and Deputy to the Chief of Staff Ext. 2702 Davis/Martin January 29, 1990 1990 FEB -5 PM 12: 15 Title: SF Draft: Three PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS: COMMONWEALTH CLUB, SAN FRANCISCO Noon, Wednesday, February 7th, 1990 ( (Acknowledgements to come. ) ) (A few minutes ago, I asked a 49er fan what he thought was the turning point in the Super Bowl. He said "the National Anthem."))\\\ ((Of course, not all recent memories in the Bay Area have been pleasant ones. I'm sure you remember the last time I was here, after this city suffered a tragedy and found renewal. I remember a clutter of car wrecks, collapsed buildings, flattened freeways\ and a terrible black cloud rising from the Marina District. Some damage remains. But today I've seen something else -- the people of the Bay Area have stood up, dusted themselves off and rebuilt. The devastation and danger are past. Because you came together, San Francisco is as beautiful as ever\\ -- San Francisco is back. ) ) I have come back to California for another reason, to give you -- no-nonsense, hardnosed businessmen and women that you are -- a straightforward, but hopeful, message about our national security. Yesterday, at Fort Irwin, I also thanked our men and women in uniform -- not just because they keep America safe and 2 free. I came to thank them because they help to make possible the wonderful changes that are sweeping the world. And as the threats to American security change, so too must our defense strategy. In 1986, defense expenditures consumed 6.5 percent of our Gross National Product. As you know, I just submitted my 1991 budget to Congress, which cuts defense for the down just cebove fifth year in a row to [almost]5 percent of GNP. I am submitting this budget at a time when the postwar world we know the world that began in 1945 -- is changing before our very eyes. So to understand where we are going, let me first review where we have been and where we are today. The first generation of postwar leaders had the cautionary example of their predecessors. They remembered that visionary tried to limit Accuracy statesmen, after the First World War, had Cutlawed large) navies. They remembered that their predecessors had even outlawed war itself. But no pact prevented World War Two recelism prudence? So by 1945 our leaders had acquired a patience, 11 a pragmatism, born of a sober appraisal of the world as it was. Ike? And from Harry Truman, to John F. Kennedy, to Ronald Reagan, we Nixm? Ford? paid any price, we bore any burden, in the defense of liberty. We paid with part of our national wealth. And many brave Americans paid with their very lives. 70 not antso provide for war 18c this. Yet over the past 40 years, our leaders continued to seek JFK quote peace even as they provided for war. It was during the Truman sought peace Administration, in this very city, that men and women of great ubris, the vision and high ideals came from around the world to create a commonly cird prelude where to we did vietnam, clearly not price. pay any Use this of here Bush Is Kennedy's comminent. policy. Not 3 parliament of nations. And so it was in San Francisco, 45 years ago, that the United Nations was born. Then, as now, the United States strove to balance its role as peace-keeper with that of peace-maker. We helped create the change United Nations and NATO; we encouraged Soviet (reform) even as we rebuffed Soviet expansion. Those who crafted this new policy and] called it and containment, predicted that if we blocked the easy path of expansion [then] the Soviet Union would one day have to confront he contradictions of its inhumane, illogical system. The purpose of this n containment - confrontation was not to defeat or to humiliate the Soviets. The hope was someday to see "the breakup or the gradual mellowing of Smit nower," as George purpose was to lead to a "mellowing of the Soviet Union-3 It but Kennan put took a half a century to vindicate this strategy, Land] at long itin1947. is inq The Service E impire do last we can say it works? And that is why the Cold War today is now wars not in retreat. retreat That is good news, for no sane man or woman is nostalgic for This the Cold War. We are inspired by the Revolution of '89 -- delighted to see a man of letters and conscience in Prague move for example, from prison to the presidential palace. We Delighted are heartened to see I the Berlin Wall fall, setting off a shockwave that upended a tyrant in Romania. And we are grateful for something more. The likelihood of a war with the Soviets has always been small, because of our march of freedom strength and that of our Allies. Now, thanks to the courageous and democracy in Eastern Eumpe and even in the Soviet Union itself prospects reforms of a dynamic Seviet leader, the threat of war is smaller for an endorine peace are greater now than ever before, Macmillan than ever before Like Marold MacMillian before him, south British Africa, Empire. comnare not about Innuy the Britishto cafe, speaking was about Heisnot No! 4 President Gorbachey freely acknowledges that empire is a burden, saying this. more problem than protection. And so now the winds of change are shaping a new destiny for the nations of the Continent -- that of a Europe whole and free. III We are taking the first steps across a bridge begun by others long ago. It is a bridge that can lead us from seemingly endless conflict to the promise of a lasting peace. But no we must be sure the matter how great the promise, [a bridge between nations must be bridge is secure before we venture too far accosit. reinforced with realism. As President, I receive anintelligence @ briefing every morning from the Don't Central Intelligence Agency. And I get from the CIA the best imply that one ofth C/A is intelligence available to any world leader today. Yet, often useless! that most striking features of the present day is the uncertainty about the find that the events reported to me by the CIA in the merning are form. Events are rushing fast in # positive direction. But there Rede Its budget overcome by the news in the evening. The world is simply moving hillget have been Letbacks -as in China - and there are great uncertaintier lut! too fast for any person or organisation to forecast what will that remain in k Saiet Union and Eastern Europ. Make different a argursvitat our happen nexty With so much that is unpredictable, (the) promising point begin from future (ive seek must be weighed against the realities of today. Allies are My most recent proposal, warmly received by President ourallies and by Tolrupt important! more Gorbachev, was to reduce land forces on both sides in Central and Eastern the troop levels stationed on foreign soil Europe to 195,000 troops. That's the prospect for change, and it holds great promise. over 560,000 Reh But the reality? -- The Soviets still have lmost 600,000 men under arms in Central Europe today. progress in & START negotiations, Another example: Because of (the new openness in Moseow) we Rado reposed Zengan deeprute hope to slash the number of strategic weapons on both sides (Le in half. 1982, long A before streacher used socied as this work if we au mobes it being 5 unrealistic, (6,000) That's the prospect for change, and it too holds great promise. over 10,000 But the reality? the Soviets still have ((number)) 5-24+25 modernizing them / re not strategic weapons, And they are (otill developing) at a furious ring They have deployed ICBMS, and are spending on leveloped; pace two new mobile @trategic weapons systems and strategic -y are alveady defense (Initiative) ^ at levels com Parable to what they spend on strategic offensive forces. egloyed the I am Gour Commander-in-Chief. I am bound by the Constitution to defend and protect the United States of America. And I cannot, as some would have me do, predicate our defense on promising, but as of yet unfulfilled, hopes for the future. Our national defense strategy must not be a response to the professed intentions of other nations, but to the weapons they hold in their hands. That's the reality we face. You certainly don't do business on the basis of a promise. The banks you do business with expect collateral. And I will seek from the Soviets the collateral to implement a new peace. In international terms, collateral means: soldiers discharged, decommissioned) tanks dismantled, and nuclear missiles demolished. Some see our measured approach as endangering the process of change. I see our approach as essential to change, as the only way to a lasting peace. We have shown that American resolve - leads to Soviet reform. We have shown that American strength is the catalyst for arms control. We are all excited by change in the East, but we must not let impatience, born of euphoria, squander @vice all we have achieved. 6 No matter how urgently we want to cross that bridge between nations, to cross to a new and more promising world, we should not, in our haste, abandon the approach path that brought us to this moment. Misuse of First, as Americans have always done, our foremost goal is "forward term to maintain to prevent another world war. To do so, we will still need what the global balance # power, EVEN with its troops someday pulled back within its defrase." the people in the Pentagon call a forward defense. Let me tell But, there borders, the Saict Union will remain wirnholmingly preponderant as a military power an you what a forward defense means. America spans a continent, but hald be a th Continent. European ferwity, stability, and freedom and global peace in strategic terms, we are an island nation. And an island # here require an American presence there, And we must remain aslong as we are on need to nation must defend itself before a threat can reach its shores stay in needed, and wanted. And that is why we will continue to have a forward presence and whyme Europe ^ need fighting forces\\ and American troops\\ with global reach. our efforts 1 Second, we will, of course, continue to reduce the likelihood of a nuclear war. And that is why I will aggressively pursue Strategic Arms Reduction Talks with the Soviet Union. But arms control and strategic modernization are not competing strategies. Rather, they can work together to make the world a safer place. whether from a necelear Deeperpower declar or a demented Just this morning, I visited Lawrence Livermore Labs and met a those visionary men and women who strive to make an all-out nuclear strike on our country, or a limited strike from a madman, when even more unlikely than it is today. Of course, some complain of the cost of developing such technologies, They should first deter couplict and consider the cost of not doing all we can to to protect the cities and citizens of America That is why I will seek to persuade the If the technology I have seen today proves feasible and it looks very promising- no war planner cald be confident of t2 success of a ballistic missile attack. Deterrince would be strengthened. something about the strategy 1991 defense behind budget. our 7 discuss how strategic definses CAN Soviets, through our Defense and Space talks, to Gee SDL to help strengthin deferrence and lead a (us all make & transition to safer world. Let me now tell you the ways in which our 1991 defense strategy is a from the military strategies of begins dramatic the departure trapsition the past. many challenges remain in the 1-54 of t2 world, Even as th balance in First, few threats are emerging outside the traditional European Central Front becomes more secure at Lower levels offorces, contingencies Overstated. East West antagonism of the past 45 years. Eyer since the in the Third World will 10am larger in our defins planning. Remember will Mayaguez incident, most conflicts involving U.S. forces like tempt th threats from Libyan, Syrian, or Iranian terrorism. our our actions in Libya or Panama have had nothing to de with Congress liberation of Grinada, and Panama. Revrem bir our vital interest to cut Seviet expansionism. Nowhere was this more apparent than in the strategic was need ed to help forther in ^ Persian Gulf two years ago where Only the U.S. Navy @ould secure ^ Empe the flow of oil to the industrial democracies. Allies celarmingly, more than E 15 additional will here Even worse, there are countries in the world that are there have by 1 end ofth decade, too developing ballistic missile technology) many with chemical and ^ biological too, weapons. (Despite our best efforts Auclear weapons capabilities, are proliferating. And inevitably high-tech weapons will fall into the hands of leaders whose hatred of America is well known. werming mus intensity efforts to prevent This dangerous proliferation. But We must be ready AR its consequences Then there are the narco-gangsters -- already a threat to our national health and spirit. Now they are taking on the dimensions of a geopolitical force. [And] they must be dealt with on the land as such -- by our military -- in the air and on the seas. III Clearly, in the future, we will need to be able to repel a missile, arrest a drug lord or protect a sealane. We will need will forces adaptable to conditions anywhere in the world. We need 1 sprayistmill not be 8 (Will) agility readiness, sustainability. We will need speed and stealth. continue to In short, we must new deter both a global war and limited in new conditions. conflicts (ith sophisticated new powerd And for this reason, we may doubly need to continue the modernization of our forces. It to by sad again my duty and mine alone to commit American fighting men to combat. [And] And while the security of this nation is on my watch, the lives of American fighting men won't be traded for dollars. Just yesterday, I visited at the National Training Center at Fort Irwin, near Barstow, where our fighting forces are preparing je for combat. It was at this very base that we trained many of our Lon't Being prepared is vant to troops who fought with such distinction in Panama. As other irred like and like also the best way to ensure that wars Are prevented. veire threats emerge on the horizon, we must be ready to fight under mitlies agerter any conditions anywhere in the world.\\ ights in way hird ((You know, I read that Khrushchev once spoke to the world Commonwealth Club from lunch until 11 p.m.\\\ Perhaps he began his speech with these words: "Let me make just a few brief observations ))\\\ So I'll get to my final concern -- how all this change in our defense budget affects us at home. Many speak of the peace dividend. Few discuss the short-term cost of peace. There will be costs as we cross the bridge to a better future -- for My Therefwill be adjustments.) dislocated industries and workers for disappointed men and women relabor 74 in the Armed Services who will return to civilian life, for whole Connside communities. ) much? may he some Trim painful personal adjustments 9 But America has always been willing to pay the price of peace. A I know that some of the bases that have been proposed for And experience proves that communities can renew themson and prospir. closure are in this area. So I have come to San Francisco today to assure you that if a base closes, it doesn't close federal concern and commitment. Civilians who are laid off will receive top priority for placement in other DOD positions. The Homeowner's Assistance Program will protect military and civilian personnel from falling real estate prices. And the Office of Economic Adjustment will work with communities to develop powerful new economic assets, new ways to use old bases. The Bible speaks of beating swords into plowshares. We are transforming military runways into municipal airports; military bases into industrial parks and community colleges; and missile hangers into factories. 2 ((NSC Insert)) I have no doubt the American people will support these measures for a continued strong defense. My travels around America tell me that. But to have the means to negotiate reductions and ensure the peace, I will need the support, cooperation and consultation of Congress. the world is more felure then We can now envision a time when military competition is Too ever; when freedom thrives; nuch past^ when all the competitive instincts of modern man will be - - or football! diverted to commerce, (hen the warriors of the future will be 3ad businessmen and women like you, briefcase in hand. mage! 10 You know, I started by joking about the 49ers winning the Super Bowl during the National Anthem. But I don't care how many passes Joe Montana completed. He knew better than to rest on his laurels at the beginning of the fourth quarter. So should we. If Congress will work with me, then peace itself will be the greatest dividend of all.\\\ Before us is a bridge to a new and better world. The way is clear. It's time to cross. Thank you for inviting me to San Francisco. God bless you, and God bless America. # # # NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL TIME STAMP EXECUTIVE SECRETARIAT STAFFING DOCUMENT RECEIVED SYSTEM LOG NUMBER: 0913 90 FEB 5 05 ACTION OFFICER: RODMAN DUE: IMMEDIATELY Prepare Memo For Scowcroft/Gates Appropriate Action Prepare Memo For Cicconi Prepare Memo for Hughes URGENT Prepare Memo SCOWCROFT to WINSTON W/ INFO CICCONI CONCURRENCES/COMMENTS* PHONE* to action officer at ext. 6907 FYI FYI fyi Basora Lampley Rostow Beers Levin Salvetti Blackwill Concurs Mahley Tilley Charles Mandel Tobey concurs Coulson Melby convers Van Eron Davis Menan Watson Deal Merchant Welch Dorminey Miller Whitley Dyke Needels Wilson Gordon per Hayden Paal Working Grimes Pacelli Zelikow Haass Passage FRY concors Hayden concurs Pilling Hutchings Popadiuk Jackson Pryce Kanter Rademaker Kitchen Rice perBlackwill LaMagna Rodman INFORMATION Hughes Sittmann Exec. Sec. Desk Scowcroft (advance) Gates (advance) Secretariat COMMENTS Loaged Bv AC Return to Secretariat Document No. 110556SS WHITE HOUSE STAFFING MEMORA 0913 DATE: 2/5/90 ACTION/CONCURRENCE/COMMENT DUE BY: 2/5/90 4:00 PM SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS: COMMONWEALTH CLUB ACTION FYI ACTION FYI VICE PRESIDENT MCCLURE SUNUNU NEWMAN SCOWCROFT PORTER and Cicconi DARMAN in blue ROGICH BATES UNTERMEYER CARD ROGERS CICCONI WINSTON DEMAREST PINKERTON FITZWATER GRAY HAGIN REMARKS: Please forward any comments directly to Chriss Winston, Rm. 122, x2930, no later than 4:00 PM TODAY, Monday, February 5, with a copy to my office. Thank you. RESPONSE: TO: CHRISS WINSTON NSC clears the Presidential remarks for the Commonwealth Club with changes as marked. Brent Scowcroft James W. Cicconi CC: James W. Cicconi Assistant to the President and Deputy to the Chief of Staff Ext. 2702 Davis/Martin January 29, 1990 1990 FEB -5 PM 12: 15 Title: SF Draft: Three PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS: COMMONWEALTH CLUB, SAN FRANCISCO Noon, Wednesday, February 7th, 1990 ((Acknowledgements to come.) ) ( (A few minutes ago, I asked a 49er fan what he thought was the turning point in the Super Bowl. He said "the National Anthem. ) ) ((Of course, not all recent memories in the Bay Area have been pleasant ones. I'm sure you remember the last time I was here, after this city suffered a tragedy and found renewal. I remember a clutter of car wrecks, collapsed buildings, flattened freeways\\ and a terrible black cloud rising from the Marina District. Some damage remains. But today I've seen something else -- the people of the Bay Area have stood up, dusted themselves off and rebuilt. The devastation and danger are past. Because you came together, San Francisco is as beautiful as ever\\ -- San Francisco is back. ) ) I have come back to California for another reason, to give you -- no-nonsense, hardnosed businessmen and women that you are -- a straightforward, but hopeful, message about our national security. Yesterday, at Fort Irwin, I also thanked our men and women in uniform -- not just because they keep America safe and 2 free. I came to thank them because they help to make possible the wonderful changes that are sweeping the world. And as the threats to American security change, so too must our defense strategy. In 1986, defense expenditures consumed 6.5 percent of our Gross National Product. As you know, I just submitted my 1991 budget to Congress, which cuts defense for the fifth year in a row -- to almost 5 percent of GNP. I am submitting this budget at a time when the postwar world we know -- the world that began in 1945 -- is changing before our very eyes. So to understand where we are going, let me first review where we have been and where we are today. The first generation of postwar leaders had the cautionary They remembered that the Greatwar the was toendall wars was followed on a period of example of their predecessors They remembered that visionary chaos and tried to limit conflict, of Ac statesmen, after the First World War, had Cutlawed large) navies changing and They remembered that their predecessors had even outlawed war and governments michton But soon great hopes gave way to the dictators. And asgression policies. itself But no pact prevent World War Two. went unchecked ? pact could So by 1945 our leaders had acquired MA patience, a bloody experience. And we appaaised the world soberly, pragmatism, born of/la sober appraisal of the world as it was. our Ike? And from Harry Truman, to John F. Kennedy to Ronald Reagan, we Nixm? strength became the world's shield, our freedom the world's hope. Ford? paid any price, we bore any burden, in the defense of liberty the price of liberty And with part our youngest and havest. We paid with part of our national wealth. And many brave Americans with lives. Do not Coven paid as we maintained their am very military strength, our people also maintained their ideals. use this. Yet over the past 40 years our leaders continued to seek JFK qvote peace even as they provided for war. It was during the Truman symbolized $ Administration, in this very city, that men and women of great jubris, vision and high ideals came from around the world to create an M cird w is viemam, prelude where to we did clearly not price. pay any Use this of here Bush is Kennedy's open- Not nice but legislative not right powerire) 3 parliament assembly of nations. And so it was in San Francisco, 45 years ago, that the United Nations was born. Then, as now, the United States strove to balance its role as peace-keeper with that of peace-maker. We helped create the change United Nations and NATO; we encouraged Soviet (reform) even as we rebuffed Soviet expansion. Those who crafted this new policy, and called it containment, predicted that if we blocked the easy path of we expansion, then the Soviet Union would one day have to confront he contradictions of to The preforre purpose likets its inhumane, illogical system. The purpose of this ^ And confrontation was not to defeat or to humiliate the Soviets. The hope was someday to see "the breakup or the gradual mellowing of Smith nower, as George Surpose was to lead to a mellowing of the Soviet Union It ^ nearly but Kennan put took a half a century to vindicate this strategy, and at long itin1947 see the results: wars do last we can say it works: And that is why the Cold War today is at ebb tide. not in retreat retreat That is good news, for no sane man or woman is nostalgic for the Cold War. We are inspired by the Revolution of '89 -- delighted to see a man of letters and conscience in Prague move from prison to the presidential palace. We are heartened to see the Berlin Wall fall, setting off a shockwave that upended a tyrant in Romania. And we are grateful for something more. The likelihood of a Now, war with the Soviets has always been small, because of our march of freedo strength and that of our Allies, Now, thanks to the courageous reforms of a dynamic Seviet leader, the threat of war is smaller and democracy in Eastern Eumpe and even in the Soviet Union itself prospects for an endoring place are greater NOW than ever before, Macmilan than ever before.\ (Like Marold MacMillian before him, sam Britth Africa, Empire. not about Innuy British cafe, to speaking was about compare the not No! 4 President Gorbachey freely acknowledges that empire is a burden, saying we can Fink more problem than protection. And so now the winds of change envision are shaping a new destiny for the nations of the Continent -- Truly that of a Europe whole and free. We are taking the first steps across a bridge begun by others long ago. It is a bridge that can lead us from seemingly endless conflict to the promise of a lasting peace. But no matter how great the promise, a bridge between nations must be reinforced with realism. As President, I receive anintelligence @ briefing every morning from the receive Don't Central Intelligence Agency) And I get from the CIA the best imply that one ofth ClAis intelligence available to any world leader today. Yet, € often that most striking features of the present day is the uncertainty about the ! find that the events reported to me by the CIA in the morning are forter. Events are rushing fast in a positive direction But there lyst overcome by the news in the evening. The world is cimply moving minget have been Letbalks as in China - and there are great uncertainter lut! tee fast for any person or organization to forecast what will that remain in & Saiet Union and Eastern Emp. Make different a happen nexty With so much that is unpredictable, the promising arpursuit Mr point begin from future (we seek must 40 weighed agains the realities of today. Allies are My most recent proposal, warmly received by President ourallies and by important! more the troop levels stationed on foreign soil Gorbachev, was to reduce land forces on both sides in Central and Eastem Europe to 195,000 troops. That's the prospect for change, and it less threatening futine we envision, holds great promise. over 560,000 But the reality? -- The Soviets still have lmost 600,000 men under arms in Central Europe today. progress in & START negotiations, imposted Zengon deepruts Another example: Because of (the new openness in Moseow> we hope to slash the number of strategic weapons on both sides (to in half. -1987 long A be 5 future we envision, (6,000) That's the prospect for change, and it too holds great promise. today, over 10,000 5-24-25 But the reality? -71 the Soviets still have ((number)) modernizing them 6 in not strategic weapons, And they are otill developing) at a furious ring They have deployed developed, ICBMS, and are spending on pace two new mobile @trategic weapons systems and strategic -Y are already defense Initiative ^ at levels com avable to what they spend m strategic offensive forces legloyed as President, 1 I the am your Commander-in-Chief. I am bound by the Constitution to defend and protect the United States of America. And I cannot, as some would have me do, predicate the our defense on of om people promising, but as of yet unfulfilled, hopes for the future. Our national defense strategy must not be a response to the professed future intentions of other nations, but to the weapons they hold in their hands 111 today. That 's the is reality. we And face. we must face up to it. You certainly don't do business on the basis of a promise. The banks you do business with expect collateral. And I will seek from the Soviets the collateral to implement a new peace. In international terms, collateral means: soldiers discharged, decommissioned) tanks dismantled, and nuclear missiles demolished. essential safety and of this to the Notion, Some see our measured approach as endangering the process of change. I see our approach as essential to change, as the only way to a lasting peace. We have shown that American resolve can helpfmther leads to Soviet reform. We have shown that American strength is we have Shown the American ideals can inspire the catalyst for arms control. 1 are all excited by change in the East, but we must not let impatience, born of euphoria, squander Cuim all we have achieved, and all we can achieve. 6 No matter how urgently we want to cross that bridge between nations, to cross to a new and more promising world, we should not, in our haste, abandon the path that brought us to this moment. andwill Misuse of First, as Americans have always done, our foremost goal is term to prevent another world war. To do so, we will still need what to maintain "forwand defends." the global balance # power, Even with its troops someday pulled back within its the people in the Pentagon call a forward defense. Let me tell But, there borders, the SmittUnim will remain wirnholmingly prepondevant as a military power an you what a forward defense means. America spans continent, but should be h Continunt. European ferwity, stability, and freedom and glo in strategic terms, we are an island nation. And an island A here require an American presence there. And we musterimainestay as we Email on need to nation must defend itself before a threat can reach its shores stay in needed, And that is why we will continue to have a forward presence and whyme Europe fighting forces\\ and American troops\\ with global reach. Second, we will, of course, continue to reduce the likelihood of a nuclear war. And that is why I will aggressively vigoronaly pursue Strategic Arms Reduction Talks with the Soviet Union. But arms control and strategic modernization are not competing strategies. Rather, they can work together to make the world a safer place. Just this morning, I visited Lawrence Livermore Labs and met those visionary men and women who strive to make an all-out nuclear strike on our country, or a limited strike from a madman, even more unlikely than it is today. Of course, some complain of the cost of developing such technologies. They should first consider the cost of not doing all we can to protect the cities and citizens of America. That is why I will seek to persuade the If the technology I have seen today proves feavible and it looks very promising.- no war planner cald be confident of t2 success of a ballistic. missile attack, Determance would be strengthemed. 7 discuss how strategic detinses an Soviets, through our Defense and Space talks, to Goe SDI to help strengthin deferrence and lead to a Gs all make & transition to safer world. Let me now tell you the ways in which our 1991 defense strategy is a dramatic departure from the military strategies of the past. many challenges remain in the 15 of the world, Even as th balance in First, 6ew threats are emerging outside the traditional Ourstated. European Central Front becomes moresecure at Lower levels offorces, contingencies East West antagonism of the past 45 years. Eyer since the in the Third World will 10am larger in our definds planning. Remember will Mayaguez incident, most conflicts involving U.S. forces like tempt th threats from Libyah, Syrian, or Iranian terrarism. Remember on our actions in Libya or Panama have had nothing to do with Congress liberation of Grinada, and Panama. Remem br our vital interest to cut Soviet expansionism. Nowhere was this more apparent than in the in the strategic was need to help forther in Persian Gulf two years ago where only the U.S. Navy @ould secure ^ with um Allie Emp the flow of oil to the industrial democracies. Allies more than 15 additional will wine Even worse, there are as countries in the world that are there have by 1 end 04th decade too developing ballistic missile Sechnology) many with chemical and ^ biological too, weapons. (Despite our best efforts Muclear weapons capabilities, are proliferating. And inevitably high-tech weapons will fall into the hands of leaders whose hatred of America is well known. wenir intensity efforts to prevent This dangrous proliteration. But We must be ready. Then there are the narco-gangsters -- already a threat to and will our national health and spirit. Now they are taking on the pretensions dimensions of a geopolitical force. And they must be dealt with as such -- by our military -- in the air and on the seas. III Clearly, in the future, we will need to be able to repel a stop aggression, missile arrest a drug lord, or protect a sealane We will need will forces adaptable to conditions anywhere in the world. We need - 8 (will) agility, readiness, sustainability. We will need speed and stealth. continue to In short, we must DOW deter both a global war and limited in new conditions. conflicts 6ith sophisticated new powerd And for this reason, we may be doubly need to continue the modernization of our forces. It to, my duty( and mine alone to commit American fighting men again to sad combat. And while the security of this nation is on my watch, the lives of American fighting men won't be traded for dollars. Just yesterday, I visited at the National Training Center at Fort Irwin, near Barstow, where our fighting forces are preparing we for combat. It was at this very base that we trained many of our don't But Being prepared is want to troops who fought with such distinction in Panama. 1 As other and like threats emerge on the horizon, we must be ready to fight under also the best way to ensure that wars are prevented. And I must say say we cal any anywhere in the world.\ that conditions after seeing am boys, talking w/ them, they're up to the challenges of the future. Sghtsta Third ((You know, I read that Khrushchev once spoke to the world Commonwealth Club from lunch until 11 p.m.\\\ Perhaps he began his speech with these words: "Let me make just a few brief observations ))\\\ So I'll get to my final concern -- how all this change in our defense budget affects us at home. Many speak of the peace dividend. Few discuss the short-term cost of peace. There will be costs as we cross the bridge to a better future -- for My There will be adjustments. relabor dislocated industries and workers for disappointed men and women 74 in the Armed Services who will return to civilian life, for whole commside communities. 0 Trim 9 But America has always been willing to pay the price of peace. A that some of the bases that have been proposed for And I experience know proves that communities can renew themsions and prospir. closure are in this area. So I have come to San Francisco today to assure you that if a base closes, it doesn't close federal concern and commitment. Civilians who are laid off will receive top priority for placement in other DOD positions. The Homeowner's Assistance Program will protect military and civilian personnel from falling real estate prices. And the Office of Economic Adjustment will work with communities to develop powerful new economic assets, new ways to use old bases. The Bible speaks of beating swords into plowshares. We are transforming military runways into municipal airports; military bases into industrial parks and community colleges; and missile hangers into factories. 2 ( (NSC Insert)) I have no doubt the American people will support these measures for a continued strong defense. My travels around America tell me that. But to have the means to negotiate reductions and ensure the peace, I will need the support, cooperation and consultation of Congress. ever; when freedom thrives; We can now envision a time when military competition is the world is more feiure then Too much past'n when all the competitive instincts of modern man will be - - or football! diverted to commerceA Chen the warriors of the future will be Ba businessmen and women like you, briefcase in hand image. 10 You know, I started by joking about the 49ers winning the Super Bowl during the National Anthem. But I don't care how many passes Joe Montana completed. He knew better than to rest on his laurels at the beginning of the fourth quarter. So should we. If Congress will work with me, then peace itself will be the greatest dividend of a11.\\\ Before us is a bridge to a new and better world. The way is clear. It's time to cross. Thank you for inviting me to San Francisco. God bless you, and God bless America. # # # NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL TIME STAMP EXECUTIVE SECRETARIAT STAFFING DOCUMENT RECEIVED SYSTEM LOG NUMBER: 0913 90 FE8 5 5 05 ACTION OFFICER: RODMAN DUE: IMMEDIATELY Prepare Memo For Scowcroft/Gates Appropriate Action Prepare Memo For Clcconi Prepare Memo for Hughes URGENT Prepare Memo SCOWCROFT to WINSTON w/ INFO CICCONI GONCURRENCES/COMMENTS* PHONE* to action officer at ext. 6907 E FYI FYI Basora Lampley Rostow Beers Levin Salvetti Blackwill Concues Mahley Tilley Charles Mandel Tobey concurs Coulson Melby conses Van Eron Devis Menan Watson Deal Merchant Welch Dorminey Miller Whitley Dyke Needels Wilson Gordon per Hayden Paal Working Grimes Pacelli Zelikow Heass Passage FRY emerrs Hayden consurs Pilling Hutchings Popadiuk Jackson Pryce Henter Rademaker Kitchen Rice per Blackwill LaMagna Rodman INFORMATION Hughes Sittmann Exec. Sec. Desk Scowcroft (advance) Gates (advance) Secretariat COMMENTS Logged By AC Return to Secretariat Dave COMMONWEALTH CLUB, SAN FRANCISCO 12 NOON, WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 7TH, 1990 THANK YOU DR. JOSEPH FINK, GOVERNOR DEUKMEIJIAN, [YOUR GREAT SENATOR, PETE WILSON], AND COMMONWEALTH CLUB PRESIDENT, JOSEPH PERRELLI. IT'S GREAT TO BE WITH YOU TODAY. ((A FEW MINUTES AGO, I ASKED A 49ER FAN WHAT HE THOUGHT WAS THE TURNING POINT IN THE SUPER BOWL. HE SAID "THE NATIONAL ANTHEM. ")) ((OF COURSE, NOT ALL RECENT MEMORIES IN THE BAY AREA HAVE BEEN PLEASANT ONES. I'M SURE YOU REMEMBER THE LAST TIME I WAS HERE, AFTER THIS CITY SUFFERED A TRAGEDY. I REMEMBER A CLUTTER OF CAR WRECKS, THAT FLATTENED FREEWAY, AND A TERRIBLE BLACK CLOUD RISING FROM THE MARINA DISTRICT. AND I KNOW SOME DAMAGE REMAINS. BUT TODAY I'VE SEEN SOMETHING ELSE -- RENEWAL. THE PEOPLE OF THE BAY AREA HAVE STOOD UP, DUSTED THEMSELVES OFF AND REBUILT. THE DEVASTATION AND DANGER ARE PAST. BECAUSE YOU CAME TOGETHER, SAN FRANCISCO IS AS BEAUTIFUL AS EVER\\ -- SAN FRANCISCO IS BACK.))\\\ - 2 - I HAVE COME BACK TO CALIFORNIA FOR ANOTHER REASON, TO GIVE YOU -- NO-NONSENSE, HARDNOSED BUSINESSMEN AND WOMEN THAT YOU ARE -- A STRAIGHTFORWARD AND HOPEFUL MESSAGE ABOUT OUR NATIONAL SECURITY. YESTERDAY, AT FORT IRWIN, I ALSO THANKED OUR MEN AND WOMEN IN UNIFORM -- NOT JUST BECAUSE THEY KEEP AMERICA SAFE AND FREE. I CAME TO THANK THEM BECAUSE THEY HELP TO MAKE POSSIBLE THE WONDERFUL CHANGES THAT ARE SWEEPING THE WORLD. AND AS THE THREATS TO AMERICAN SECURITY CHANGE, so TOO MUST OUR DEFENSE STRATEGY. IN 1986, DEFENSE EXPENDITURES CONSUMED 6.3 PERCENT OF OUR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT. AS YOU KNOW, I JUST SUBMITTED MY 1991 BUDGET TO CONGRESS, WHICH HOLDS DOWN DEFENSE SPENDING FOR THE FIFTH YEAR IN A ROW -- DOWN TO JUST ABOVE 5 PERCENT OF GNP. I AM SUBMITTING THIS BUDGET AT A TIME WHEN THE POSTWAR WORLD WE HAVE KNOWN -- THE WORLD THAT BEGAN IN 1945 -- IS CHANGING BEFORE OUR VERY EYES. SO TO UNDERSTAND WHERE WE ARE GOING, LET ME FIRST REVIEW WHERE WE HAVE BEEN AND WHERE WE ARE TODAY. - 3 - OUR WESTERN THE FIRST GENERATION OF POSTWAR LEADERS HAD THE CAUTIONARY EXAMPLE OF THEIR PREDECESSORS. THEY REMEMBERED THAT THE GREAT WAR -- THE WAR TO END ALL WARS -- WAS FOLLOWED BY CHAOS AND CONFLICT. THEY REMEMBERED THAT VISIONARY STATESMEN, AFTER THE FIRST WORLD WAR, HAD TRIED TO LIMIT LARGE NAVIES -- EVEN OUTLAWED WAR ITSELF. BUT SOON THESE GREAT HOPES FADED IN THE FACE OF UNCHECKED AGGRESSION. AND NO PACT COULD PREVENT WORLD WAR TWO. so BY 1945 OUR LEADERS HAD ACQUIRED A REALISM BORN OF BLOODY EXPERIENCE, 11 A PRAGMATISM BORN OF A SOBER APPRAISAL OF THE WORLD AS IT WAS. AND FROM HARRY TRUMAN TO RONALD REAGAN, OUR STRENGTH BECAME THE WORLD'S SHIELD; OUR IDEALS OF FREEDOM AND DEMOCRACY, THE WORLD'S HOPE. WE PAID DEARLY FOR THE DEFENSE OF LIBERTY -- WITH OUR NATIONAL WEALTH, AND WITH MANY OF OUR YOUNGEST AND BRAVEST. - 4 - AND so, OVER THE PAST 40 YEARS, OUR LEADERS CONTINUED TO PROVIDE FOR WAR EVEN AS THEY SOUGHT PEACE. IT WAS DURING THE TRUMAN ADMINISTRATION, IN THIS VERY CITY, THAT MEN AND WOMEN OF GREAT VISION AND HIGH IDEALS CAME FROM AROUND THE WORLD TO CREATE AN ASSEMBLY OF NATIONS. AND SO IT WAS IN SAN FRANCISCO, 45 YEARS AGO, THAT THE UNITED NATIONS WAS BORN. THEN, AS NOW, THE UNITED STATES STROVE TO BALANCE ITS ROLE AS PEACE-KEEPER WITH THAT OF PEACE-MAKER. WE 1 HELPED CREATE THE UNITED NATIONS AND NATO; WE ENCOURAGED SOVIET CHANGE EVEN AS WE THWARTED SOVIET EXPANSION. - 5 - THOSE WHO CRAFTED THIS NEW POLICY CALLED IT CONTAINMENT, AND PREDICTED THAT IF WE BLOCKED THE EASY PATH OF EXPANSION, THE SOVIET UNION WOULD ONE DAY HAVE TO CONFRONT THE CONTRADICTIONS OF ITS INHUMANE, ILLOGICAL SYSTEM. THE PURPOSE OF CONTAINMENT WAS NOT TO DEFEAT OR HUMILIATE THE SOVIETS. THE PURPOSE WAS TO PRESERVE AND EXTEND LIBERTY. THE HOPE WAS SOMEDAY TO SEE, AS GEORGE KENNAN PUT IT IN 1947, "THE GRADUAL MELLOWING OF SOVIET POWER." IT TOOK NEARLY HALF A CENTURY TO VINDICATE THIS STRATEGY, BUT WE CAN NOW SEE FULL THE RESULTS: TODAY, THE COLD WAR IS IN RETREAT. 111 ^ THAT IS GOOD NEWS, FOR NO SANE MAN OR WOMAN IS NOSTALGIC FOR THE COLD WAR. WE ARE INSPIRED BY THIS REVOLUTION OF '89 -- HEARTENED, FOR EXAMPLE, TO SEE A MAN OF LETTERS AND CONSCIENCE IN PRAGUE MOVE FROM PRISON TO THE PRESIDENTIAL PALACE. WE ARE HEARTENED TO SEE THE BERLIN WALL FALL, SETTING OFF A SHOCKWAVE THAT UPENDED A TYRANT IN ROMANIA. - 6 - AND WE ARE GRATEFUL FOR SOMETHING MORE. NOW, BECAUSE OF OUR STRENGTH AND THAT OF OUR ALLIES; NOW, THANKS TO THE MARCH OF FREEDOM AND DEMOCRACY IN EASTERN EUROPE -- AND EVEN IN THE SOVIET UNION ITSELF -- NOW THE PROSPECTS FOR AN ENDURING PEACE ARE GREATER THAN EVER BEFORE. WE CAN NOW ENVISION A NEW DESTINY FOR THE NATIONS OF THE CONTINENT -- THAT OF A EUROPE TRULY WHOLE AND FREE. III WE ARE TAKING THE FIRST STEPS ACROSS A BRIDGE BEGUN BY OTHERS LONG AGO. IT IS A BRIDGE THAT CAN LEAD US FROM SEEMINGLY ENDLESS CONFLICT TO THE PROMISE OF A LASTING PEACE. BUT NO MATTER HOW GREAT THE PROMISE, WE MUST BE CERTAIN THE BRIDGE IS SECURE. AS PRESIDENT, I RECEIVE AN INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING EVERY MORNING. AND I RECEIVE THE BEST INFORMATION AVAILABLE TO ANY WORLD LEADER TODAY. YET THE MORNING NEWS IS OFTEN OVERTAKEN BY THE NEWS THAT VERY EVENING. THE WORLD IS SIMPLY MOVING TOO FAST TO FORECAST WITH ABSOLUTE CERTAINTY WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT. OUR CHALLENGE IS TO MANAGE THIS PERIOD OF TRANSITION FROM THE WORLD OF TODAY TO THE WORLD OF TOMORROW -- AND SAFEGUARD THE SECURITY OF AMERICA IN THE PROCESS. When of cons to the security of this country I'd rather be cantions than rechiles - 7 - OUR PURSUIT OF THIS PROMISING FUTURE MUST START WITH AN UNDERSTANDING OF TODAY'S REALITIES. OUR TAKE, FOR EXAMPLE, MY MOST RECENT PROPOSAL, WARMLY RECEIVED BY OUR ALLIES AND PRESIDENT GORBACHEV. I PROPOSED REDUCING THE TROOP LEVELS ON BOTH SIDES IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE TO 195,000 TROOPS. THAT Balance THE LESS THREATENING FUTURE WE ENVISION, AND IT HOLDS encourage GREAT PROMISE. BUT RIGHT NOW THE SOVIETS STILL HAVE MORE THAN 560,000 MEN UNDER ARMS IN CENTRAL EUROPE. ON THE ISSUE OF STRATEGIC WEAPONS WE HAVE MADE PROGRESS IN THE START NEGOTIATIONS. WE NOW HOPE TO SLASH THE NUMBER OF STRATEGIC WEAPONS ON BOTH SIDES IN HALF. IT IS THESE IMPORTANT REDUCTIONS THAT SECRETARY BAKER IS SEEKING THIS VERY DAY IN MOSCOW. THAT'S THE FUTURE WE ENVISION, AND IT TOO HOLDS GREAT PROMISE. - 8 - BUT LET US NOT FORGET THAT RIGHT NOW THE SOVIETS STILL HAVE MORE THAN 10,000 STRATEGIC WEAPONS. THEY ARE MODERNIZING THEM; THEY HAVE DEPLOYED TWO NEW MOBILE ICBMS, AND THEIR SPENDING ON THEIR STRATEGIC DEFENSE INITIATIVE IS COMPARABLE TO THEIR SPENDING ON STRATEGIC OFFENSIVE FORCES. The AS PRESIDENT, I AM THE COMMANDER-IN-CHIEF, I AM BOUND BY THE CONSTITUTION TO DEFEND AND PROTECT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. SOME WOULD HAVE ME PREDICATE THE DEFENSE OF OUR PEOPLE ON PROMISING, BUT AS YET UNFULFILLED, HOPES FOR THE FUTURE. I WILL NOT. I AM WITH w DETERMINED TO SEEK FROM THE SOVIETS THE COLLATERAL TO IMPLEMENT A NEW PEACE. IN INTERNATIONAL TERMS, COLLATERAL MEANS: SOLDIERS DISCHARGED, TANKS DISMANTLED, NUCLEAR MISSILES DEMOLISHED, AND CHEMICAL WEAPONS BANNED FROM THE FACE OF THE EARTH.\\\ - 9 - SOME SEE OUR MEASURED APPROACH AS ENDANGERING THE PROCESS OF CHANGE. I SEE OUR APPROACH AS ESSENTIAL TO CHANGE, ESSENTIAL TO THE SECURITY OF THIS NATION AND AS THE ONLY WAY TO A LASTING PEACE. WE HAVE SHOWN THAT AMERICAN RESOLVE CAN HELP FURTHER SOVIET REFORM. WE HAVE SHOWN THAT AMERICAN STRENGTH IS THE CATALYST FOR ARMS CONTROL. WE HAVE SHOWN THAT THE IDEA CALLED AMERICA CAN INSPIRE CHANGE. NOW WE MUST NOT LET HORE TO IMPATIENCE, BORN OF EUPHORIA, JEOPARDIZE ALL WE HAVE ACHIEVE. ACHIEVED so FAR, AND ALL WE CAN ACHIEVE IN THE FUTURE. NO MATTER HOW URGENTLY WE WANT TO CROSS THAT BRIDGE BETWEEN NATIONS, TO CROSS TO A NEW AND MORE PROMISING WORLD, WE SHOULD NOT, IN OUR HASTE, ABANDON THE PATH THAT BROUGHT US TO THIS MOMENT. - 10 - FIRST, AS AMERICANS HAVE ALWAYS BELIEVED, OUR FOREMOST GOAL IS TO PREVENT ANOTHER WORLD WAR. TO DO REMAIN FULLY ENGAGED. so, WE WILL STILL NEED TO MAINTAIN THE GLOBAL BALANCE OF POWER. EUROPEAN SECURITY, STABILITY AND FREEDOM -- SO TIED TO OUR OWN -- REQUIRES AN AMERICAN PRESENCE. Western Europeans all want usto stay there WE MUST REMAIN THERE AS LONG AS WE ARE NEEDED AND WANTED. THE PROSPECT OF GLOBAL PEACE, THEREFORE, insert DEPENDS ON AN AMERICAN FORWARD PRESENCE WITH GLOBAL REACH SECOND, WE WILL, OF COURSE, CONTINUE TO REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF A NUCLEAR WAR. AND THAT IS WHY I WILL VIGOROUSLY PURSUE OUR START TALKS WITH THE SOVIET UNION. III BUT ARMS CONTROL AND STRATEGIC MODERNIZATION ARE NOT COMPETING STRATEGIES. RATHER, THEY CAN WORK TOGETHER TO MAKE THE WORLD A SAFER PLACE. - 11 - JUST THIS MORNING, I VISITED LAWRENCE LIVERMORE LABS AND MET THOSE VISIONARY MEN AND WOMEN WHO STRIVE TO MAKE A NUCLEAR STRIKE ON OUR COUNTRY -- WHETHER FROM A NUCLEAR SUPERPOWER, OR RENEGADE NATION, OR TERRORIST GROUP -- EVEN MORE UNLIKELY THAT IT IS TODAY. IF THE TECHNOLOGY I HAVE SEEN TODAY PROVES FEASIBLE -- AND IT LOOKS VERY PROMISING -- NO AGGRESSOR COULD BE CONFIDENT OF THE SUCCESS OF A BALLISTIC MISSILE ATTACK. THAT'S WHAT DETERRENCE IS ALL ABOUT. WHEN SOME COMPLAIN OF THE COST OF DEVELOPING SUCH TECHNOLOGIES, THEY SHOULD FIRST CONSIDER THE COST OF NOT DOING ALL WE CAN TO DETER CONFLICT AND PROTECT THE CITIES AND CITIZENS OF AMERICA. THAT IS WHY I WILL SEEK TO PERSUADE THE SOVIETS, THROUGH OUR DEFENSE AND SPACE TALKS, THAT, IN FACT, GREATER RELIANCE ON STRATEGIC DEFENSES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A SAFER WORLD. LET ME NOW TELL YOU SOMETHING ABOUT THE STRATEGY BEHIND OUR 1991 DEFENSE BUDGET: - 12 - FIRST, NEW THREATS ARE EMERGING BEYOND THE TRADITIONAL EAST-WEST ANTAGONISM OF THE PAST 45 YEARS. THESE CONTINGENCIES MUST LOOM LARGER IN OUR DEFENSE PLANNING. REMEMBER THE THREATS OF LIBYAN AND IRANIAN TERRORISM REMEMBER OUR LIBERATION OF GRENADA AND services PANAMAX AND REMEMBER THE DEDICATION OF THE U.S. NAVY ON DUTY IN THE PERSIAN GULF TWO YEARS AGO, SAFEGUARDING THE FLOW OF OIL / TO THE INDUSTRIAL DEMOCRACIES REMEMBER, Too, THAT THERE ARE MORE THAN 15 COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD THAT WILL HAVE DEVELOPED BALLISTIC MISSILES BY THE END OF THE DECADE -- MANY WITH CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL CAPABILITIES. NUCLEAR WEAPONS CAPABILITIES ARE PROLIFERATING AS WELL. AND INEVITABLY HIGH-TECH WEAPONS WILL FALL INTO THE HANDS OF THOSE WHOSE HATRED OF AMERICA, AND CONTEMPT FOR continue CIVILIZED NORMS, IS WELL KNOWN. WE WILL WORK HARD TO PREVENT THIS DANGEROUS PROLIFERATION. BUT ONE THING IS CERTAIN: WE MUST BE READY FOR ITS CONSEQUENCES. AND WE WILL BE READY. 11 - 13 - THEN THERE ARE THE NARCO-GANGSTERS -- ALREADY A THREAT TO OUR NATIONAL HEALTH AND SPIRIT. NOW THEY ARE TAKING ON THE PRETENSIONS OF A GEOPOLITICAL FORCE. AND THEY MUST BE DEALT WITH AS SUCH -- BY OUR MILITARY -- IN THE AIR, ON THE LAND, AND ON THE SEAS. CLEARLY, IN THE FUTURE, WE WILL NEED TO BE ABLE TO STOP AGGRESSION, REPEL A MISSILE, PROTECT A SEALANE OR ARREST A DRUG LORD. WE WILL NEED FORCES ADAPTABLE TO CONDITIONS ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD. WE WILL NEED AGILITY, READINESS, SUSTAINABILITY. WE WILL NEED SPEED AND STEALTH. AND WE WILL NEED LEADERSHIP. IN SHORT, WE MUST CONTINUE TO DETER BOTH A GLOBAL WAR AND LIMITED CONFLICTS IN NEW CONDITIONS. AND FOR THIS REASON, WE DOUBLY NEED TO CONTINUE THE MODERNIZATION OF OUR FORCES. I PRAY, IT WILL NOT BE MY SAD DUTY TO COMMIT AMERICAN FIGHTING MEN AGAIN TO COMBAT. BUT IF I DO, WITH THE SECURITY OF THIS NATION ON MY WATCH, THE LIVES OF AMERICAN FIGHTING MEN WON'T BE SHORT-CHANGED. - 14 - AS I MENTIONED, JUST YESTERDAY, I VISITED THE NATIONAL TRAINING CENTER AT FORT IRWIN, NEAR BARSTOW, WHERE OUR FIGHTING FORCES PREPARE FOR ACTION. IT WAS AT THIS VERY BASE THAT WE TRAINED MANY OF OUR TROOPS WHO FOUGHT WITH SUCH DISTINCTION IN PANAMA. AND THEY WERE COURAGEOUS. BUT BEING PREPARED IS ALSO THE BEST WAY TO ENSURE THAT WARS ARE PREVENTED. AND AFTER SEEING OUR MEN AND WOMEN AGAIN, TALKING WITH THEM -- THEY'RE INDEED UP TO THE CHALLENGES OF THE FUTURE. 11 ((YOU KNOW, I READ THAT KHRUSHCHEV ONCE SPOKE TO THE COMMONWEALTH CLUB FOR THREE HOURS. III PERHAPS HE BEGAN HIS SPEECH WITH THESE WORDS: "LET ME MAKE JUST A FEW BRIEF OBSERVATIONS .))\\\ so I'LL GET TO MY FINAL CONCERN -- HOW ALL THIS 9 CHANGE IN OUR DEFENSE BUDGET AFFECTS US AT HOME. MANY SPEAK OF THE PEACE DIVIDEND. FEW DISCUSS THE SHORT- TERM COST OF PEACE. THERE WILL BE COSTS AS WE CROSS THE BRIDGE TO A BETTER FUTURE -- FOR DISLOCATED INDUSTRIES AND WORKERS, FOR COMMUNITIES -- PAINFUL PERSONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO BE MADE. - 15 - BUT AMERICA HAS ALWAYS BEEN WILLING TO PAY THE PRICE OF PEACE. I KNOW THAT SOME OF THE BASES THAT HAVE BEEN PROPOSED FOR CUTBACKS ARE IN THIS AREA. BUT LET ME STATE RIGHT HERE AND NOW: THERE HAVE BEEN NO POLITICS IN THESE PROPOSALS. SOME TALK ABOUT BASES IN DEMOCRATIC DISTRICTS HERE -- WELL, THEY ARE ALSO IN THE SAME STATE AS A REPUBLICAN GOVERNOR. I ASK CONGRESS TO JOIN ME IN A SPIRIT OF FAIRNESS. LONGSTANDING CRITICS OF DEFENSE SPENDING SHOULD NOT TURN AROUND AND BLOCK THE CLOSING OF A BASE IN THEIR HOME DISTRICT. I CANNOT AND WILL NOT ACCEPT THAT. THE TAXPAYER DESERVES BETTER, AND so DO THOSE AFFECTED BY OUR DECISIONS. LET ME ASSURE YOU: IF A BASE CLOSES, IT DOESN'T CLOSE FEDERAL CONCERN AND COMMITMENT. 11 - 16 - CIVILIANS WHO ARE LAID OFF WILL RECEIVE TOP PRIORITY FOR PLACEMENT IN OTHER DOD POSITIONS. THE HOMEOWNER'S ASSISTANCE PROGRAM WILL PROTECT MILITARY AND CIVILIAN PERSONNEL FROM FALLING REAL ESTATE PRICES. AND THE OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ADJUSTMENT WILL WORK WITH COMMUNITIES TO DEVELOP POWERFUL NEW ECONOMIC ASSETS, NEW WAYS TO USE OLD BASES. THE BIBLE SPEAKS OF BEATING SWORDS INTO PLOWSHARES. WE ARE TRANSFORMING MILITARY RUNWAYS INTO MUNICIPAL AIRPORTS; MILITARY BASES INTO INDUSTRIAL PARKS AND COMMUNITY COLLEGES; AND MISSILE HANGARS INTO FACTORIES. I KNOW THE AMERICAN PEOPLE WILL SUPPORT THESE MEASURES FOR A CONTINUED STRONG DEFENSE. MY TRAVELS AROUND THIS COUNTRY TELL ME THAT. BUT TO HAVE THE MEANS TO NEGOTIATE REDUCTIONS AND ENSURE THE PEACE, I WILL NEED THE SUPPORT, COOPERATION AND CONSULTATION OF CONGRESS. WE CAN NOW ENVISION A TIME WHEN THE WORLD IS MORE SECURE THAN EVER; WHEN ALL THE COMPETITIVE INSTINCTS OF MODERN MAN WILL BE DIVERTED TO COMMERCE\\ EVEN TO FOOTBALL. - 17 - YOU KNOW, I STARTED BY JOKING ABOUT THE 49ERS WINNING THE SUPER BOWL DURING THE NATIONAL ANTHEM. BUT IT'S NOT HOW MANY PASSES JOE MONTANA COMPLETED. IT'S THAT HE KNEW BETTER THAN TO REST ON HIS LAURELS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FOURTH QUARTER. SO SHOULD WE. I WILL WORK WITH CONGRESS TO BUILD THAT BRIDGE TO A MORE SECURE WORLD. AND IF WE WORK TOGETHER, THEN PEACE ITSELF WILL BE THE GREATEST DIVIDEND OF ALL.\\\ THANK YOU FOR INVITING ME TO SAN FRANCISCO. GOD BLESS YOU, AND GOD BLESS AMERICA. # # # THE WRITE HOUSE Office of the Press Secretary (San Francisco, California) For Immediate Release February 7, 1990 REMARKS BY THE PRESIDENT IN QUESTION AND ANSWER SESSION WITH MEMBERS OF THE COMMONWEALTH CLUB San Francisco Hilton Hotel San Francisco, California 12:59 P.M. PST 8 Having reviewed SDI at Livermore Lab today, do you support moving ahead with the project? THE PRESIDENT: Yes, I do. And our budget calls for that. And again, I would remind the critics that it is defensive; that the science and technology from it will benefit not just this concept of a reasonably-priced way of intercepting somebody else's missile -- whether it's from a major power or from some renegade hand -- but that the science will benefit, I believe, the environment -- I believe it has enormous potential for other uses. I feel more strongly about that then when I went to Livermore. of Will the expected troop reductions bring about a savings that can be used to offset the increased cost in strategic arms? THE PRESIDENT: Yes. And I hope that there will not be a greatly increased cost in strategic arms. The Soviets have modernized. They've modernized their systems and we have not yet. But I would hope that the resulting reductions in the strategic arms, which I am pledged to and which I will work for, will have a beneficial effect on -- and will result in savings. You see, I am convinced that if politics of international change are handled correctly and if things go more forward, we will eventually have far lower levels of spending. But I've spelled out for you here why I think that should be approached in a very prudent manner. ! with the recent events in Eastern Europe, do you think we should now again prepare for a world economic struggle, rather than be preparing unnecessarily for a military struggle? THE PRESIDENT: Well, I wouldn't necessarily shift priorities. I've told you the priority I place on defense. But when it comes to competitiveness of the United States, we should be struggling with that on the front burner right now. And I think we are. And that's one of the reasons I increased dramatically R&D spending in our budget. It's one of the inevitable by-products of a better education system. It's why we're putting more emphasis on math and science. It's why I'm imposing on great scientists like David Packard and others to give us the advice on how we can become more competitive. It's why my trade negotiator, Carla Hills, and our Secretary of Commerce are doing their level best to convince people that if we are going to have free trade, that has to be fair trade. And so this competition on the economic front is big; it's going to get even bigger, in my view, and we've got an enormous job to do. Not just the federal government; we can't do this. Many businesses have already moved into much more -- in the sense of quality product -- moved much more into the sense of automation and MORE e 2 - moderpisation. So it 10 a national goal that we be more competitive, but 18 can't wait until we get our defense program in line. It's right mow. It's urgent. (Applause.) And let me just throw in one, Joe, on the success of the Uruguay trade round, for those who are a little more technically-oriented than some. The success of this Uruguay trade round is very, very important to our ability to enhance the rest of the world and ourselves by free trade. But we've got some big barriers out there. We've got some problems we have to overcome. or Can you pledge that a certain amount of dollars from armament reduction be transferred as a reduction in the debt? THE PRESIDENT: No, I can't pledge that, but I an pledged to get the deficit down in accordance with the Gramm-Rudman targets. We will have that, if we get our way with Congress -- which doesn't exactly do things the way I want, I've found out -- (laughter) -- but if we g t that done, I stated in my State of the Union message, that that should be an objective. And to move right into it, the minute we are in balance -- which would be in three years. Now, I expect there will be a lot of pressure on. You hear pressure today on what is referred to alluring as a peace dividend. And it appeals to me. There are things that I'd love to be able to say, we can put a little more in this research, or we can help this homeless person a little more, or whatever it is. The pressures will be on, but I think that it would be a very good thing to do -- because I have this -- as a grandparent of 12 I must confess, like a lot of people here, you feel that we are burdening the generations to come with a debt that does nothing but click off at the beginning of each year an enormously high and even higher rate of interest that we're pledged -- interest account that we're pledged to pay on the national debt. so, yes, as I said in the State of the Union, that's what I want to do. (Applause.) 0 If the Soviet Union and others in the Warsaw Pact substantially scale back their military commitment, doesn't the U.S. run the risk of moving in the opposite direction of the world? Are we prepared to stand alone? THE PRESIDENT: No, because I think as I mentioned to you earlier, and this is the truth, our allies want us involved. They don't want to see us decouple or delink from Europe. They see the changes and welcome them. All the allied leaders -- and I talk to the leaders of NATO on a fairly regular basis -- they see and welcome the change, but they do not want to see the United States pull back into what would be perceived worldwide as some kind of a neo-isolationist decoupling. And I am not suggesting that we can't save money; indeed, we will. If our proposal -- the proposal that I put forward -- is accepted by the Soviets, and we negotiate out all the details and get a CFE, Conventional Force Agreement, as we are proposing, I think we will see substantial savings in -- that are made by the -- what do you call it? Suddenly gone blank -- in terms of when you bring a guy back and he no longer is in the army -- (laughter) -- but it's not just transferring, it's a question of having fewer troops on both sides. And that will result in some savings. so we're aware that there's a chance to save, but it is not that we are going to be swimming against the tide with our European allies. And as I said in the speech -- and I recognize his question -- didn't indicate the guy that asked the question was asleep, he probably wrote the question before the speech -- I hope. (Laughter.) But what I also said is that I hope and believe that many of the new fledgling democracies in Eastern Europe are going to welcome a stabilizing presence on the part of the United States. NOW, some will say that's sacrificing. And I say, no, it is in our interest because we provide a certain stability that wouldn't be there if we, the United States, weren't there. 0 Do you see the freedom of the communist country as a MORE - 3 - threat to the globe? That is, if they all want the conforts we have, will we use up the resources of our Earth at an even greater rate? THE PRESIDENT: No. I think there's an environmental awareness in the world today that is encouraging. I will readily concede there are some in what is known as the Third World -- I'm not thinking so much as the evolution of Eastern Europe into the arms of democracy -- but I think there's a feeling in some Third World countries, don't you big guys from the United States who have raped, pillaged and plundered the environment now come and tell us what we can't do. We understand that. But we've got to work with them and share our tremendously advanced technology, existing technology, as we work to find even greater technological breakthroughs to protect the environment. But I don't think you're going to necessarily see that is because of the evolution of Iron Curtain countries into growing -- hopefully, growing democracies. I think there's an awareness now in Europe about the need to have sound international environmental practice based on science. Not on myth, but on science. 0 As Eastern Europe and the U.S.S.R. progress toward democracy, do you see foresee any potential military alliances being formed that could threaten the Free World, such as a united Germany and Japan? THE PRESIDENT: No, I don't. And I think everybody that's interested in foreign affairs, I'm sure, has an opinion one way or another as to what happens on the reunification of Germany. But I think that can be -- well, let me recite just as background the U.S. position, which is, self-determination -- and this is the NATO position self-determination, and then when it comes to borders, I believe Helsinki says no alteration in borders without agreement of the parties. So that gives you a rather stable framework. Now, you can read every day about the rapidity of change and what might happen in terms of German reunification. But I think it can be managed in such a way that it will not be a threat to Western Europe or to what was termed in the question, I think, the Free World. And when I hear both Mr. Genscher and Chancellor Kohl talking about a Germany that remains tied into NATO in some way -- maybe not a NATO in exactly the same form it is -- but that's encouraging. That's encouraging. X In the past, smaller countries used to play the U.S. versus the U.S.S.R. to get military and economic aid. Now that relations have improved with the U.S.S.R., and if we can anticipate continued improvement, what are the chances of the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. working together to solve some of the world's problems, such as the Middle-East? THE PRESIDENT: Better, far better. And I think there's certain things that the Soviet Union could do that would facilitate their role as a catalyst for peace in the Middle East. One of them would be to assist more, through transportation direct flights -- for Soviet Jews wishing to leave the Soviet Union to go to Israel. I think that would send a sign that their presence -- their interest in the Middle East is not just on the side of what heretofore has been the side OF the more radical states in the area. so they can do something like that. I'd like to see them normalize diplomatic relations with the State of Israel. I think that would be helpful. But I would think that, as the Soviet Union evolves in a more democratic fashion, that some of the concerns we've had in the past will be lessened. So I wouldn't say that at some point they wouldn't have a useful role. I've cited two areas where I think they can have a useful role in building credibility, not just with the State of Israel, but with other states as well. So let's hope that they can do something. (Applause.) 0 How can we help Mr. Gorbachev in his quest for a MORE - 4 - unification of his country, in demonstration of his country? THE PRESIDENT: I think we can avoid doing dumb things. (Laughter and applause.) And that's my cautious approach. You know, there is a - he's facing some enormously difficult internal problems. And you may have noted that I have been -- hopefully on behalf of most the people in our country -- supporting perestroika. When on for a few months into our presidency -- mine -- why, people wondered what, does he really care? Does he understand these changes? Is he willing to support -- does he really mean it when be says, I support perestroika? I do. And glasnost, the openness concept, as well. But in the last press conference or so -- a couple of them, maybe -- I referred to support for Gorbachev. And I have felt that he has handled some extraordinarily complicated internal problems -- problems inside the Soviet Union -- with a certain restraint and finesse that I think demonstrates a real commitment to peaceful change. I think what's coming out now in the plenum - the last thing I think any United States citizen needs to do is when you have the Central Committee meeting is to try to fine-tune it from San Francisco or Washington as to how they ought to conduct themselves. (Laughter.) So I want to be very careful about picking winners and losers, or saying how they ought to do things. But I do think that, generally speaking, it is in our interest to support perestroika, and I will say again, I think Mr. Gorbachev has shown a considerable restraint. And frankly, the dealings that I've had with him here and then on the sidelines when George and President Reagan were dealing with him, is that he's a man who you can talk to; he's quite open in his negotiations. Be damn sure will tell you if he doesn't agree with you. (Laughter.) I mean, you're not under any doubt about that. (Laughter.) But it's a new approach. I mean, it's very different than dealing with some of the previous Soviet leaders. So I'm not here to annoint or try to shape the deliberations of the Central Committee proceedings in the Soviet Union -- this very day, or that will commence again tomorrow, maybe. But I do think that there's an awful lot to be hopeful about there because I find we can talk quite openly. And I'm looking forward to a summit meeting. I don't know why all meetings have to be called summits. (Laughter.) We tried to call the Malta meetings something else, and it lasted for about two days. (Laughter.) And I mean it, because I think summit projects the idea that you have to have some massive break-through, or else you disappoint the rest of the world. And I've changed my thinking on this. I think maybe communications where you don't have to do that is better. And that's why I was on the phone with him the other day on a couple of matters. So I'm optimistic about our dealings with him, but I cannot predict -- and nor can any of you with any degree of accuracy exactly what's going to happen inside the Soviet Union. & Please comment on Mikhail Gorbachev's nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize. THE PRESIDENT: I'd hate to say I wasn't aware of it, but : wesn't aware of it. (Laughter.) And I Ann't follow those proceedings too closely. (Laughter.) But I've told you, I would salute the man for his adherence to peaceful change in Eastern Europe. I mean, that I think, is dramatic and I think worthy of a positive note. But far be it for me to try to influence the gurus that decide who wins a Nobel Prize. (Laughter and applause.) a As far as the issue of drug trafficking goes and the world drug problem, could you please address the issue of whether os not military forces will be used in a more direct way in the enforcement of international drug traffick? THE PRESIDENT: NO, not in a more direct way. Military forces have been used over the years. The arrest power rests with the Coast Guard. The Coast Guardsman can be abourd naval vessels. MORE - 5 - But we have an interdiction network that is manned and operated by our military. But in terms of ce what the question implies to me at least -- of a quantus leap forward in terms of this I don't know. One of the things I have felt is that sometimes the military says, well, we can't undertake this mission or that because of readiness. It is my view that sometimes an exercise that results in the interdiction of aircraft coming into this country on an illegal mission is a good mission and should not be detracted from the readiness. so I think that we're always looking at the mission of the military in this regard, but I don't want to give the military more arrest powers. I think we've got a very proper justice system in this country. I do think that they can be extraordinarily useful and have been in interdiction and in working with countries that want their cooperation. Q Are you prepared to use troops in the United States to enforce the laws against drug consumption -- to cut down on the demand which entices the supply? THE PRESIDENT: Well, not to cut down on the demand. I don't think that's a function of the U.S. military. We have police powers in this country; they are properly defined and that should not, in my view, be altered. Q There are many questions that ask why do you find it necessary -- THE PRESIDENT: The demand -- let me be sure -- the demand side really relates also to education. To people, this is bad, you should not do this. We've condoned things in this country that we should have condemned long ago in terms of narcotics. (Applause.) or There are several questions that have asked why do you find it necessary to physically go to Colombia? THE PRESIDENT: Well, let me explain that to you because I think it's on the minds of a lot of people. I went to a barbecue in Beeville, Texas -- (laughter) -- and there were 800 people there -- not quite this big a mob -- and I thought, well, these people are doing this to welcome me back to South Texas. And I decided I would shake hands with everybody there. We politicians all alike, you know, go out there and shake hands. Art, you know how that is. (Laughter.) so out 1 went. And I think about 15 percent of them at that point said, hey, you know we're hoping you don't do this. Let me explain it to you. In the first place, I am not going to do something stupid or macho. (Laughter.) I love the guy -- the guy they used to call timid is now Macho Man or something. (Laughter and applause.) It has nothing to do with that. It doesn't have anything to do with personal. It has a lot to do with the support for a courageous leader in Colombia. And I believe, and I think this goes for those who have the responsibility of protecting any president of the United States. that the security of the President can be protected -- on this naval base, a place where the man has his own home that is cut off from the mainland except by one entrance. And I don't want to send a signal on your behalf or my behalf that the United States says to this great President, "Look, our President can't come there even though we think the security can be granted -- can be guaranteed and thus push him, perhaps inadvertently to make a kind of deal that he has resisted making with these narco-traffickers. I talked to a foreign leader the other day, from South America, and he agrees with this rational. So it isn't whimsical or a desire to be in harms way. I think we've got good arrangements, and I think it is good sound anti-narcotic policy to support President Barco who is doing an awful lot to protect our kids from MORE - 6 - the scourge of narcotics. (Applause.) Q There are claims that the removal of General Ortega will improve our efforts at interdicting drug -- international drug trafficking. DO you agree with this? THE PRESIDENT: Yes, I do, because there's some symbolism there and just as I think the extradition of Carlos Lehder and the Colombians pursuit of the drug lord that was recently killed down there in battle in Colombia -- Those things help, because if they see major participants, traffickers going about their life without threat, why, I just think it sends the wrong signal. 0 Since the Panama invasion, have our relations with Mexico improved? THE PRESIDENT: Yes. And I'll tell you one thing that was good. Our Secretary of the Treasury went down there maybe -- 1 don't know whether you saw it on Sunday -- and signed with President Salinas, the very fine young President of Mexico, an agreement on Third World debt. I think that was a good sign. I -- look, I think I know enough about this hemisphere to know that anytime a United States force is used in Central America or wherever else in this hemisphere, there are going to be concerns built on a foundation of history that concern our friends and those who are less friendly to us in this hemisphere. But I've explained as best I can, through letter and by phone, to these leaders why we acted the way we did. I will tell you that I am convinced not only will the relation -- is the relationship with Mexico good and is it strong, I see nothing but making it even better. And I'm going to work at that, because Mexico we must not take for granted the fact that we have marvelously strong allies to our North and friends to our South. Sometimes, blessed as we our by our own geography, we forget that. And there could be an inclination to neglect our neighbors, and I don't want to do that. And I can't tell you that there has been no strains, but I think some of what you've been reading about South American reaction has been overstated. And I base that on some contact with the individual leaders in this hemisphere. But it's an exciting hemisphere. This hemisphere can be, in the next couple of years, totally democratic. We must not neglect it. So if somebody disagrees with me on Panama and South America or Central America, that just redoubles my desire to make it right. Make them understand that the President of the United States is going to protect American life. Make them understand that 92 percent of the people in Panama support what I did. Make them understand that democracy now has a chance. And make them understand that we're going to assist that democracy. Once I do a better job of that, I think any last concerns about what happened there will be laid to rest. (Applause.) 0 Why are we wasting time with Noriega when he cannot possibly receive a constitutionally=fair trail without compromising national security? Why not send him to exile in a country willing to take him? (Laughter.) THE PRESIDENT: Well, the line is not very long for one thing. And secondly -- (laughter.) Secondly, look -- I would just disagree with the person writing the question that the given is he can't get a fair trial. of course, he can get a fair trial. And we've seen that over and over again in highly-controversial cases. And so our justice system that bends over backwards to be fair will, indeed, acquit itself well in this case. ! Is your administration -- THE PRESIDENT: And should. The man's entitled to a fair trial. governments or you dislike, even if they carry their public support, Is your administration prepared to accept MORE - 7 - such as the Sandinistas in Nicaragua? THE PRESIDENT: Please define acceptance. (Laughter.) I mean, we are - my aspiration is to help and assist those countries in this hemisphere that want to walk down democracy's road. Freedom. Democracy. The very things that we see -- changes that we see coming forward in Eastern Europe. Who would have thought we'd be talking about trying to assist Czechoslovakia a year ago? Or Romania? or some of these other countries? So I don't think we can dictate exactly what kind of system somebody else has. It's not our business, particularly if they have free and certifiably fair elections. But I think one's inclination is to help those who have the same reverence for democracy and freedom that we have. 2 You stated in your State of the Union Address that you wish to improve education and to implement the goal of best by 2000 -- the year 2000. HOW do you plan to implement your goal of having our graduates be the best by the year 2000? THE PRESIDENT: Well, we have a sound program, what I call the Education Excellence Act, before the Congress today. It's complex legislation, but I want to see it passed. Probably get amended, probably get changed, but it challenges people to think anew. We've gotten the governors together in a governors conference that was more than just frill. What it did was set -- agree to set national goals. And in the speech the other night, I spelled out four of the national goals that the governors have agreed should be national, and they, themselves, will get to work and redouble their efforts in their states and try to encourage the localities to implement the program that we've spelled out. But lot me be careful here, because it isn't the role of the federal government to do this alone. It can't do it. Seven percent of the educational spending in this country is federal. And the rest, for very understandable, and I think, wonderful reasons, belong at the state and local level -- or private educational institution level. And so, we can exhort; we can push for the kind of legislation; we can push for implementation of the national goals through the use of the bully-pulpit in the White House, and then, we've got to encourage the governors and the local school boards and our teachers when it comes to alternative certification, and all of these things, to think anew. And we can do this. But we're trying to set from Washington -- put some emphasis on things, like math and science, so we can guarantee our ability to compete in the future. But the federal government isn't going to do it alone. It wouldn't be good, either, for the federal government to try to do it alone. (Applause.) Q President Bush, this is your last question, and before I ask the question, I wish to remind our audience to please remain seated until President Bush and Governor Deukmeijian have left the room. This is a summary of many different questions that I've received, President Bush, and that is, where is Mrs. Bush and how is she? (Laughter and applause.) Extended Dans 13.1 THE PRESIDENT: I know you'll never believe this, but I'm getting a terrible inferiority complex. (Laughter.) She's fine. And we both have something in common now -- the vision thing -- because she has this eye problem. But she is doing very well. There is no hidden agenda to her health. And today, she is down as one of the Thousand Points of Light, which she's been for a long time, helping on literacy in Southern California. And I'll meet her tonight in Omaha. But she's doing just great, and thank you for asking about her. Thank you very much. (Applause.) END 1:31 P.M. PST