Ask the Scholar

Document scope · 1 page
doc
Scholar
Ask about this object, its catalog metadata, its source description, or the page inventory. For page-specific OCR and visual context, open one of the page chats.

Scholar Source Context

Document identity
localId
323151127
label
Aspen Institute 40th Anniversary 8/2/90 [OA 5376] [2]
core
doc
dtoType
document
pageCount
1
Source metadata
Source extras
naId
323151127
levelOfDescription
fileUnit
recordType
description
ocrSource
nara-archive
Single page context
seq
1
pageIndex
0
type
document
mediaId
c53b1c142b3a78f3
ocrText
Originally Processed With FOIA(s): FOIA Number: S; 2003-0372-F S FOIA MARKER This is not a textual record. This is used as an administrative marker by the George Bush Presidential Library Staff. Record Group/Collection: George H.W. Bush Presidential Records Collection/Office of Origin: Speechwriting, White House Office of Series: Speech File Draft Files Subseries: Chron File, 1989-1993 OA/ID Number: 13538 Folder ID Number: 13538-002 Folder Title: Aspen Institute 40th Anniversary 8/2/90 [OA 5376] [2] Stack: Row: Section: Shelf: Position: G 26 16 4 2 who's the Per event McGroarty/Dooley July 30, 1990 2:00 pm [ASPEN] FIRST THE ASPEN INSTITUTE DRAFT PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS: ASPEN, COLORADO AUGUST 2, 1990 5:30 P.M. dawn [Introductory acknowledgements: Aspen officials, alumni. Prime Minister Thatcher, Ambassador Catto.] I am delighted to celebrate with you the 40th anniversary of the illustrious Aspen Institute. // In those 40 years, the spirit of Aspen has come to signify laddrth. to of the attempt to bridge the worlds of thought and action. // And course, to understand the tremendous changes taking place around us. / Think back to the headlines 40 years ago, the Who's summer of that first Aspen conference in 1950. / North Korea Theremy roared across the 38th parallel. Klaus Fuchs was caught and convicted for revealing the secrets of the atom bomb to the Soviets. The Cold War -- a term introduced into our political vocabulary by Bernard Baruch -- had come into its own, as the shorthand to describe the half-way house of an armed and uneasy peace -- a world divided, East from West. / That was the world as Aspen came into being -- the world Aspen sought to study, and to shape. // The forty years since then have been a time of tremendous progress -- for the nations of the West, an era of unparalleled prosperity, peace and freedom. / But at the same time, we lived in a constant condition of tension, Cold War and conflict. // 2 That world is now changing. // The decades old division of Europe is now ending -- and the era of democracy-building has begun. In Germany -- the divided nation in the heart of a divided continent -- unity is now assured, as a free and full member of the NATO alliance. / The Soviet Union itself is in the midst of a political and economic transformation that has brought unprecedented openness -- and begun a process of change that is at once full of hope, and full of uncertainty. // This change has had an undeniable impact on national security strategy as well. / The threat of a large-scale land war -- a Soviet invasion of Western Europe launched with little or no warning -- is today more remote than at any point in the post-war period. / With the emergence of democracy in Eastern Europe, the Warsaw Pact has lost its military meaning -- and after more than four decades of dominance, Soviets troops are beginning to withdraw from Central and Eastern Europe. / But the fact remains for all these positive changes that the Soviet Union continues to be a world-class military power. They continue to devote 1/4 of their faltering economic capacity to military spending -- and to funnel billions of dollars worth of aid to anti-democratic client-states from Cuba to North Korea. / Even after the conventional arms reductions we are now negotiating, the Soviets will continue to maintain 2 to 3 million men under arms -- a force far larger than any other nation in Europe. / And of course, our number one concern: in spite of 3 severe economic hardship, the Soviets continue to maintain and modernize their arsenal of strategic nuclear weapons. // We must, therefore, maintain an effective deterrent -- one that secures the peace not only in today's climate of reduced tensions, but provides a safeguard against any future reversal from the Soviet Union's present, positive course. [[NSC INSERT ON STRATEGIC MODERNIZATION. ]] Above all, we cannot mistake the great gains democracy has made this past year as proof that America's work in the world is complete. We are all aware of the voices urging America that it can now safely retreat into isolationism -- that we can turn inward again, now that democracy has won the war of ideas. // All of us agree that never before in the post-war era has the likelihood of global war been lower. And yet, for all the distance we have travelled from the depths of the Cold War, we must also recognize that we have not yet entered an era of perpetual peace. // What we require now is a policy that adapts to the significant changes we've witnessed -- without neglecting the enduring realities that will continue to shape our security strategy. // A policy of peacetime engagement every bit as constant and committed to the defense of our interests and ideals in today's world as in the time of conflict and Cold War. // As long as the United States remains a nation with global interests -- we must maintain a global balance. / American interests in Europe and the Pacific -- the enduring reality of 4 Soviet power -- all are key reasons why maintaining a forward presence will remain an indispensable element of our strategy. For instance -- while we may well change our present operating procedures and patterns of deployment -- no amount of political change will alter the geographical fact that the U.S. # 1 must be a maritime power -- with a Navy second to none. And the U.S. will keep a force in Europe as long as our allies believe our presence contributes to stability. The size and shape of those forces will change, to suit the new and less threatening circumstances -- and to adapt to a new political climate that calls for forces organized along multinational lines. But for the sake of stability, the overall capability of U.S. forces in Europe will remain substantial. // In addition to these enduring security interests, America must possess forces capable of responding to emerging threats in corners of the globe that may not at present seem to pose great danger. / In spite of our best efforts to control the spread of nuclear weapons and ballistic missile technologies, more nations are acquiring weapons of mass destruction -- and the means to deliver them. / Right now, over 100 countries have cruise missiles -- and 20 countries have the capacity to produce chemical weapons. In the future, even conflicts we once thought of as regional may carry far-reaching consequences. // In this past year, democracy has indeed made great gains. But our world remains one where radicalism, fanaticism, and a destructive form of nationalism continue to breed violence and leadus, requires 5 terror, aggression and instability. In this world, American strength is often the paramount force for peace and freedom. / Our task today is to shape our defense capabilities to the changing strategic circumstances I've just spoken of. / We know that our forces will be smaller. / Secretary Cheney and General Powell are hard at work determining the precise size and composition of the forces we need. But I can tell you now, when all the calculations are complete -- when all our roles and missions are reviewed -- we will be looking at a military force that, within five years, will be 25% smaller than today's. // What matters is how we reshape the forces that remain. The United States would be ill-served by forces that represent nothing more than a scaled-back or shrunken-down version of the ones we possess at present. We could easily end up with more than we need for contingencies that are no longer likely -- and less than we must have to meet emerging challenges. / What we need are not merely reductions -- but restructuring. This restructuring must emphasize three key components essential to sustain American security: To cope with the full range of challenges we may confront, we must focus on readiness and rapid response -- and to prepare today to meet the challenges we may face in the future, we must focus on research -- an active and inventive program of defense R&D. // Let me begin with the component with the greatest long- range consequences -- research. Time and again, we have seen technology revolutionize the battlefield. / The U.S. has always 6 relied upon its technological edge to offset the need to match potential adversaries' strength in numbers. / Cruise missiles, Stealth fighters and bombers, today's "smart" weapons with state- of-the-art guidance systems, and tomorrow's "brilliant" ones -- all of these and more will be a necessary part in prevailing in any future conflict -- and at the same time, saving lives. // We must realize the heavy price we will pay if we look for false economies in defense R&D. Most modern weapons systems take a minimum of 10 years to move from the drawing board to the battlefield. / The decisions we make today -- the programs we push forward, or push aside -- will dictate the kind of military forces we have at our disposal in the year 2000 -- and beyond. // The nature of national defense demands that we plan now for threats on the distant horizon. // Second, as we restructure, we must put a premium on readiness. // True military capability never exists on paper - -it is measured in the hours spent, and experience gained, on the training ground, under sail, and in the cockpit. Nothing is more short-sighted than cutting training time to cut costs -- and nothing is more demoralizing for our troops than to deny them the training time they need. // Our soldiers, sailors airmen and marines must be well-trained, tried and tested -- ready to perform every mission we ask of them. // In our restructured forces, reserves will continue to play a special role. The need to be prepared for a massive, short-term mobilization has diminished -- along with the threat of Soviet 7 aggression. Instead of measuring warning time in terms of days and weeks as we were forced to do for the past 40 years -- by the mid-90's, we expect much longer notice of any return to the levels of confrontation that existed in the depths of the Cold War: signs that we could recognize at least one to two years before the outbreak of aggression. // Today we must focus on the capacity to reconstitute our forces -- to rebuild essential capabilities -- in a time of increased instability. Finally, we must focus on rapid response. As we saw most recently in OPERATION JUST CAUSE, the U.S. may be called on to respond to threats from various points on the compass. In an era when threats may well emerge without warning, our ability to defend our interests will depend on our speed and agility. In many of the conflicts we may face in the future, we will not have the luxury of matching manpower with pre-positioned materiel. That will require air and sea-lift capacities at the very least equal to if not more capable than those we possess today. // A rational restructuring of the kind I've outlined will take five years. And I am confident we can meet the challenges I've outlined today -- provided we proceed with an orderly build-down -- not a fire sale. Any build-down of this magnitude must be managed carefully to minimize dislocations -- not just to the military balance, but to morale. And I can say right now, as Commander-in-Chief, that I will not break faith with the young men and women who have freely chosen to serve their country. // 8 All of us know the challenges we face are fiscal, as well as military. / The budget constraints we face are very real --- but so too is the need for a strong and secure America. The simple fact is: when it comes to national security, America can never afford to fail or fall short. /// Let me say once again how pleased I am to appear here today -- especially with our honored friend, Mrs. Thatcher. / Today, of course, is not the first time President and Prime Minister have shared the stage. That was 44 years ago -- in Fulton, Missouri. // Mrs. Thatcher, the world remembers the address Churchill delivered that day as the "Iron Curtain" speech. / But that wasn't what he called it. He titled it / "The Sinews of Peace." // By that, he meant to summon up a vision of the strength of free nations -- united in defense of democracy. // At long last, we are writing the final chapter of the 20th Century's third great conflict. The Cold War is now drawing to a close. / And yet today -- as in Churchill's time -- the world remains divided. For all the millions of men and women who won their freedom this past year -- there are hundreds of millions more not yet free. // Our challenge today is to overcome this deep division. To marshall the growing forces of the Free World -- to work to bring within reach for the unfree the liberty that belongs by right to all. // Thank you, and may God bless the United States of America. # # # THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON July 31, 1990 MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT THROUGH: & DAVID DEMAREST FROM: DAN MCGROARTY mely SUBJECT: ASPEN INSTITUTE 40TH ANNIVERSARY I. SUMMARY On Thursday, August 2, at 3:30 p.m. you will address the opening session of the Aspen Institute's 40th Anniversary Symposium. About 3000 people will attend, 500 of whom are special guests of the Aspen Institute, including Prime Minister Thatcher, Ambassador and Mrs. Catto, business executives, public servants and academics from around the world. Lodwrick Cook, Chairman and CEO of ARCO, will introduce you. Following the speech, Ann Hudson, a trustee of the Aspen Institute, will present you with a gift. II. DISCUSSION The speech (20 min./teleprompter) discusses national security and defense, and the new challenges the U.S. faces in this rapidly changing world. # # # McGroarty/Dooley July 31, 1990 4:45 pm [ASPEN] PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS: THE ASPEN INSTITUTE ASPEN, COLORADO AUGUST 2, 1990 5:30 P.M. [Introductory acknowledgements: Aspen officials, alumni. Prime Minister Thatcher, Ambassador Catto.] I am delighted to celebrate with you the 40th anniversary of the illustrious Aspen Institute. // In those 40 years, the spirit of Aspen has come to signify the attempt to bridge the worlds of thought and action. // And of course, to understand the tremendous changes taking place around us. / Think back to the headlines 40 years ago, the summer of that first Aspen conference in 1950. / North Korea roared across the 38th parallel. Klaus Fuchs was caught and convicted for revealing the secrets of the atom bomb to the Soviets. The Cold War -- a term introduced into our political vocabulary by Bernard Baruch -- had come into its own, as the shorthand to describe the half-way house of an armed and uneasy peace -- a world divided, East from West. / That was the world as Aspen came into being -- the world Aspen sought to study, and to shape. // The forty years since then have been a time of tremendous progress -- for the nations of the West, an era of unparalleled prosperity, peace and freedom. / But at the same time, we lived in a constant condition of tension, Cold War and conflict. // 2 That world is now changing. // The decades-old division of Europe is ending -- and the era of democracy-building has begun. In Germany -- the divided nation in the heart of a divided continent -- unity is now assured, as a free and full member of the NATO alliance. / The Soviet Union itself is in the midst of a political and economic transformation that has brought unprecedented openness -- a process that is at once full of hope, and full of uncertainty. // These changes have transformed our security environment. We are entering a new era. The defense strategy and military structure needed to ensure peace can -- and must -- be different. / The threat of a Soviet invasion of Western Europe launched with little or no warning is today more remote than at any point in the post-war period. / With the emergence of democracy in Eastern Europe, the Warsaw Pact has lost its military meaning -- and after more than four decades of dominance, Soviet troops are withdrawing from Central and Eastern Europe. / Our task today is to shape our defense capabilities to these changing strategic circumstances. / In a world less driven by an immediate threat to Europe and the danger of global war -- in a world where arms control agreements contribute to stability -- we know that our forces will be smaller. / Secretary Cheney and General Powell are hard at work determining the precise size and composition of the forces we need. But I can tell you now, when all the calculations are complete -- when all our roles and missions are reviewed -- we will be looking at a military force 3 that, within five years, will be 25% smaller than today's. / America's Armed Forces will be at their lowest level since 1950. What matters most is how we reshape the forces that remain. The United States would be ill-served by forces that represent nothing more than a scaled-back or shrunken-down version of the ones we possess at present. If we simply pro-rate our reductions -- cut equally across the board -- we could easily end up with more than we need for contingencies that are no longer likely -- and less than we must have to meet emerging challenges. / What we need are not merely reductions -- but restructuring. What we require now is a defense policy that adapts to the significant changes we are witnessing -- without neglecting the enduring realities that will continue to shape our security strategy. // A policy of peacetime engagement every bit as constant and committed to the defense of our interests and ideals in today's world as in the time of conflict and Cold War. // And in this world, America remains a pivotal factor for peaceful change. / American interests in Europe and the Pacific -- in the Mediterranean and the Persian Gulf -- all are key reasons why maintaining a forward presence will remain an indispensable element of our strategy. And the fact remains for all the positive changes we have seen, the Soviet Union remains a world-class military power. Even after the conventional arms reductions we are now negotiating, the Soviets will continue to maintain 2 to 3 million men under arms. / And of course, our number one concern: the 4 Soviets continue to maintain and modernize their arsenal of strategic nuclear weapons. // We and our allies welcome the new course the Soviet Union has chosen. / But prudence demands that we maintain an effective deterrent -- one that secures the peace not only in today's climate of reduced tensions, but that ensures that renewed confrontation is not an option for any Soviet leadership. The Soviets will enter a START Treaty with a fully modernized, highly capable and very large strategic force. / We need the B-2. Secretary Cheney has already scaled back the program as much as makes sense. Further delays will only increase costs. / We need to complete the Trident program -- to ensure a survivable, submarine-based deterrent. / We can defer a decision on our land-based ICBMs -- as we see how the START talks proceed -- but we must keep our options open: and that means completing the development of the small ICBM and the rail- based Peacekeeper. / And finally, I am convinced that a defensive strategic deterrent makes more sense than ever before. We must push forward the great promise of SDI -- and we must deploy SDI when ready. // And the U.S. will keep a force in Europe as long as our allies want and need us there. / The size and shape of those forces will change, to suit the new and less threatening circumstances. But we will remain in Europe to deter any new dangers -- and to reassure all of Europe -- East and West -- that the European balance will remain secure. // 5 Outside of Europe, America must possess forces able to respond to threats in whatever corner of the globe they may occur. / In spite of our best efforts to control the spread of chemical and nuclear weapons and ballistic missile technologies, more nations are acquiring weapons of mass destruction -- and the means to deliver them. / [[Right now, over 100 countries have cruise missiles. 20 countries have the capacity to produce chemical weapons. And by the year 2000, as many as 15 nations will possess ballistic missiles. //]] In the future, even conflicts we once thought of as limited or local may carry far- reaching consequences. Even in a world where democracy and freedom have made great gains, threats remain. Terrorism. Hostage taking. Renegade regimes and unpredictable rulers -- new sources of instability - - all require a strong and engaged America. // To cope with the full range of challenges we may confront, we must focus on readiness and rapid response -- and to prepare today to meet the challenges we may face in the future, we must focus on research -- an active and inventive program of defense R&D. // Let me begin with the component with the greatest long- range consequences -- research. Time and again, we have seen technology revolutionize the battlefield. / The U.S. has always relied upon its technological edge to offset the need to match potential adversaries' strength in numbers. / Cruise missiles, Stealth fighters and bombers, today's "smart" weapons with state- 6 of-the-art guidance systems, and tomorrow's "brilliant" ones: the men and women in our Armed Forces deserve the best technology America has to offer. // And we must realize the heavy price we will pay if we look for false economies in defense R&D. Most modern weapons systems take a minimum of 10 years to move from the drawing board to the battlefield. / // The nature of national defense demands that we plan now for threats on the distant horizon. The decisions we make today -- the programs we push forward, or push aside -- will dictate the kind of military forces we have at our disposal in the year 2000 -- and beyond. // Second, we must focus on rapid response. As we saw most recently in Panama, the U.S. may be called on to respond to a variety of challenges from various points on the compass. In an era when threats may well emerge without warning, our ability to defend our interests will depend on our speed and agility. We will need forces that give us global reach. No amount of political change will alter the geographic fact that we are separated from many of our most important allies and interests by thousands of miles of water. // And in many of the conflicts we may face in the future, we may not have the luxury of matching manpower with pre-positioned materiel. That will require air and sea-lift capacities to get our forces where they are needed -- when they are needed. A new emphasis on flexibility and versatility should guide our efforts. And finally, as we restructure, we must put a premium on 7 readiness. / Readiness must be our highest priority. / True military capability never exists on paper -- it is measured in the hours spent, and experience gained, on the training ground, under sail, and in the cockpit. Nothing is more short-sighted than cutting training time to cut costs -- and nothing is more demoralizing for our troops than to deny them the training time they need. // Our soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines must be well-trained, tried and tested -- ready to perform every mission we ask of them. // In our restructured forces, reserves will be important, but in new ways. The need to be prepared for a massive, short-term mobilization has diminished. We can now adjust both the size and readiness of our reserve forces, to help us deal with the more likely challenges we will face. Our strategy will guard against a major reversal in Soviet intentions by incorporating into our planning the concept of regeneration of our forces. By the mid-90s, the time it would take the Soviets to return to the levels of confrontation that marked the depths of the Cold War will be sufficient to allow us to rely not solely on existing forces -- but to generate wholly new forces. / This readiness to rebuild -- made explicit in our defense policy -- will be an important element in our ability to deter aggression. /// A rational restructuring of the kind I've outlined will take five years. And I am confident we can meet the challenges I've outlined today -- provided we proceed with an orderly build-down 8 -- not a fire sale. Any build-down of this magnitude must be managed carefully to minimize dislocations -- not just to the military balance, but to morale. And I can say right now, as Commander-in-Chief, that we will take every step possible to minimize the turbulence these changes will create for our soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines. / I will not break faith with the young men and women who have freely chosen to serve their country. // All of us know the challenges we face are fiscal, as well as military. / The budget constraints we face are very real -- but so too is the need for a strong and secure America. The simple fact is: when it comes to national security, America can never afford to fail or fall short. /// Let me say once again how pleased I am to appear here today -- especially with our honored friend, Mrs. Thatcher. / Today, of course, is not the only time President and Prime Minister have shared the stage. The world remembers that day 44 years ago -- in Fulton, Missouri, when Churchill delivered what history calls the "Iron Curtain" speech. / But that wasn't what he called it. He titled it / "The Sinews of Peace." // By that, he meant to summon up a vision of the strength of free nations -- united in defense of democracy. // At long last, we are writing the final chapter of the 20th Century's third great conflict. The Cold War is now drawing to a close. / And yet today -- as in Churchill's time -- the world remains divided. For all the millions of men and women who won 9 their freedom this past year -- there are hundreds of millions more not yet free. // Our challenge today is to overcome this deep division. To marshall the growing forces of the Free World -- to work to bring within reach for the unfree the liberty that belongs by right to all. 11 Thank you, and may God bless the United States of America. # # # THE OFFICE THE UNITED OFFICE BUDGET or ONE DERECT STATES EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET WASHINGTON, D.C. 20503 90 JUL 31 A4:14 NOTICE: Enclosed are comments from staff members of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). Such comments do not necessarily represent the official position of the Director of OMB or of the Office of Management and Budget. If you wish to have the Director's personal comments, please let me know -- and contact me if you have any questions. If our proposed substantive changes are not made, please let us know before the material is prepared in final. James UM C. Murr Associate Director for Legislative Reference and Administration CLOSE HOLD SENSITIVE ent No. 162623SS WHITE HOUSE STAFFING MEMORANDUM DATE: 7/30/90 ACTION/CONCURRENCE/COMMENT DUE BY: 7/30/90 3:00 PM SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS: ASPEN INSTITUTE ACTION FYI ACTION FYI VICE PRESIDENT MCCLURE SUNUNU NEWMAN SCOWCROFT PORTER DARMAN ROGICH CARD UNTERMEYER CICCONI ROGERS DEMAREST WINSTON FITZWATER GRAY HAGIN HOLIDAY REMARKS: Please forward any comments directly to Chriss Winston, Rm. 122, x2930, no later than 3:00 PM, Tuesday, July 31, with a copy to my office. Thank you. RESPONSE: see comments James W. Cicconi CLOSE HOLD SENSITIVE Assistant to the President and Deputy to the Chief of Staff Ext. 2702 McGroarty/Dooley July 30, 1990 1990 JUL 30 PM 3. 55 3:30 pm [ASPEN] PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS: THE ASPEN INSTITUTE ASPEN, COLORADO AUGUST 2, 1990 5:30 P.M. [Introductory acknowledgements: Aspen officials, alumni. Prime Minister Thatcher, Ambassador Catto.] I am delighted to celebrate with you the 40th anniversary of the illustrious Aspen Institute. // In those 40 years, the spirit of Aspen has come to signify the attempt to bridge the worlds of thought and action. // And of course, to understand the tremendous changes taking place around us. / Think back to the headlines 40 years ago, the summer of that first Aspen conference in 1950. / North Korea roared across the 38th parallel. Klaus Fuchs was caught and convicted for revealing the secrets of the atom bomb to the Soviets. The Cold War -- a term introduced into our political vocabulary by Bernard Baruch -- had come into its own, as the shorthand to describe the half-way house of an armed and uneasy peace -- a world divided, East from West. / That was the world as Aspen came into being -- the world Aspen sought to study, and to shape. // The forty years since then have been a time of tremendous progress -- for the nations of the West, an era of unparalleled prosperity, peace and freedom. / But at the same time, we lived in a constant condition of tension, Cold War and conflict. // 2 That world is now changing. // The decades-old division of Europe is now ending -- and the era of democracy-building has begun. In Germany -- the divided nation in the heart of a divided continent -- unity is now assured, as a free and full member of the NATO alliance. / The Soviet Union itself is in the midst of a political and economic transformation that has brought unprecedented openness -- and begun a process of change that is at once full of hope, and full of uncertainty. // This change has had an undeniable impact on national security strategy as well. / The threat of a large-scale land war -- a Soviet invasion of Western Europe launched with little or no warning -- is today more remote than at any point in the post-war period. / With the emergence of democracy in Eastern Europe, the Warsaw Pact has lost its military meaning -- and after more than four decades of dominance, Soviet troops are beginning to withdraw from Central and Eastern Europe. / But the fact remains for all these positive changes that the Soviet Union remains a world-class military power. Even after the conventional arms reductions we are now negotiating, the Soviets will continue to maintain 2 to 3 million men under arms - - a force far larger than any other nation in Europe. / And of course, our number one concern: in spite of severe economic hardship, the Soviets continue to maintain and modernize their arsenal of strategic nuclear weapons. 11 We and our allies welcome the new course the Soviet Union has chosen. / But prudence demands that we maintain an The Soviets will enter a START Treaty with a fully modernized, highly capable, very large strategic force. We must continue with our strategic modernization. We need the B-2. Further delays will only increase costs. We need to complete the Trident program -- to ensure a survivable, submarine-based deterrent. We must keep our ICBM options open: and that means completing the development of the small ICBM and the rail-based Peacekeeper. And finally, I am convinced that strategic defense makes more sense than ever before. We must deploy SDI when it is ready. Howard X4657 4657 3 effective deterrent -- one that secures the peace not only in today's climate of reduced tensions, but provides a safeguard against any future reversal from the Soviet Union's present, positive course. [[NSC INSERT ON STRATEGIC MODERNIZATION. ]] Above all, we cannot mistake the great gains democracy has made this past year as proof that America's work in the world is complete. // All of us agree that never before in the post-war era has the likelihood of global war been lower. And yet, for all the distance we have travelled from the depths of the Cold War, we must also recognize that we have not yet entered an era of perpetual peace. // What we require now is a policy that adapts to the significant changes we've witnessed -- without neglecting the enduring realities that will continue to shape our security strategy. // A policy of peacetime engagement every bit as constant and committed to the defense of our interests and ideals in today's world as in the time of conflict and Cold War. // A N.B. policy that recognizes that our enemy is instability -- and that Instability a strong America must remain a force for stability in the world. is sometimes good e.g. 11 Peace and democracy Howard the dissolution As long as the United States remains a nation with global XH657 of the warsaw interests -- we must maintain a global balance. / American pact stability interests in Europe and the Pacific -- the enduring reality of is sometimes Soviet power -- all are key reasons why maintaining a forward bad e.g. on presence will remain an indispensable element of our strategy. unchang Cuba ing Noward & 4657 4 For instance -- while we may well change our present operating procedures and patterns of deployment -- no amount of political change will alter the geographical fact that the U.S. must remain a maritime power. // And the U.S. will keep a force in Europe as long as our allies believe our presence contributes to stability. / The size and shape of those forces will change, to suit the new and less threatening circumstances -- and to adapt to a new political climate that calls for forces organized along multinational lines. But for the sake of stability, the overall capability of U.S. forces in Europe will remain substantial. // In addition to these enduring security interests, America must possess forces capable of responding to emerging threats in corners of the globe that may not at present seem to pose great danger. / In spite of our best efforts to control the spread of nuclear weapons and ballistic missile technologies, more nations are acquiring weapons of mass destruction -- and the means to deliver them. / Right now, over 100 countries have cruise missiles. 20 countries have the capacity to produce chemical weapons. And by the year 2000, as many as 15 nations will possess ballistic missiles. // In the future, even conflicts we once thought of as regional may carry far-reaching consequences. In this past year, democracy has indeed made great gains. But our world remains one where radicalism, fanaticism, and a destructive form of nationalism continue to breed violence and terror -- aggression and instability. / In a world of renegade 5 regimes and unpredictable rulers -- the U.S. must stand with its allies in defense of our democratic values. /// Our task today is to shape our defense capabilities to the changing strategic circumstances I've just spoken of. / We know that our forces will be smaller. / Secretary Cheney and General Powell are hard at work determining the precise size and composition of the forces we need. But I can tell you now, when all the calculations are complete -- when all our roles and missions are reviewed -- we will be looking at a military force that, within five years, will be 25% smaller than today's. 11 What matters is how we reshape the forces that remain. The United States would be ill-served by forces that represent nothing more than a scaled-back or shrunken-down version of the ones we possess at present. We could easily end up with more than we need for contingencies that are no longer likely -- and less than we must have to meet emerging challenges. / What we need are not merely reductions -- but restructuring. This restructuring must emphasize three key components essential to sustain American security: To cope with the full range of challenges we may confront, we must focus on readiness and rapid response -- and to prepare today to meet the challenges we may face in the future, we must focus on research -- an active and inventive program of defense R&D. // Let me begin with the component with the greatest long- range consequences -- research. Time and again, we have seen technology revolutionize the battlefield. / The U.S. has always 6 relied upon its technological edge to offset the need to match potential adversaries' strength in numbers. / Cruise missiles, Stealth fighters and bombers, today's "smart" weapons with state- of-the-art guidance systems, and tomorrow's "brilliant" ones -- all of these and more will be a necessary part in prevailing in any future conflict -- and at the same time, saving lives. // We must realize the heavy price we will pay if we look for false economies in defense R&D. Most modern weapons systems take a minimum of 10 years to move from the drawing board to the battlefield. / The decisions we make today -- the programs we push forward, or push aside -- will dictate the kind of military forces we have at our disposal in the year 2000 -- and beyond. // The nature of national defense demands that we plan now for threats on the distant horizon. // Second, as we restructure, we must put a premium on readiness. // True military capability never exists on paper - -it is measured in the hours spent, and experience gained, on the training ground, under sail, and in the cockpit. Nothing is more short-sighted than cutting training time to cut costs -- and nothing is more demoralizing for our troops than to deny them the training time they need. // Our soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines must be well-trained, tried and tested -- ready to perform every mission we ask of them. 11 In our restructured forces, reserves will continue to play a special role. The need to be prepared for a massive, short-term mobilization has diminished --- along with the threat of Soviet 7 aggression. Instead of measuring warning time in terms of days and weeks as we were forced to do for the past 40 years -- by the mid-90's, we expect much longer notice of any return to the levels of confrontation that existed in the depths of the Cold War: signs that we could recognize at least one to two years before the outbreak of aggression. // Today we must focus on the capacity to reconstitute our forces -- to rebuild essential capabilities -- in a time of increased instability. Finally, we must focus on rapid response. As we saw most recently in OPERATION JUST CAUSE, the U.S. may be called on to respond to threats from various points on the compass. In an era when threats may well emerge without warning, our ability to defend our interests will depend on our speed and agility. In many of the conflicts we may face in the future, we will not have the luxury of matching manpower with pre-positioned materiel. That will require air and sea-lift capacities at the very least equal to if not more capable than those we possess today. // A rational restructuring of the kind I've outlined will take five years. And I am confident we can meet the challenges I've outlined today -- provided we proceed with an orderly build-down -- not a fire sale. Any build-down of this magnitude must be managed carefully to minimize dislocations -- not just to the military balance, but to morale. And I can say right now, as Commander-in-Chief, that I will not break faith with the young men and women who have freely chosen to serve their country. // 8 All of us know the challenges we face are fiscal, as well as military. / The budget constraints we face are very real -- but so too is the need for a strong and secure America. The simple fact is: when it comes to national security, America can never afford to fail or fall short. /// Let me say once again how pleased I am to appear here today -- especially with our honored friend, Mrs. Thatcher. / Today, of course, is not the first time President and Prime Minister have shared the stage. That was 44 years ago -- in Fulton, Missouri. // Mrs. Thatcher, the world remembers the address Churchill delivered that day as the "Iron Curtain" speech. / But that wasn't what he called it. He titled it / "The Sinews of Peace." // By that, he meant to summon up a vision of the strength of free nations -- united in defense of democracy. 11 At long last, we are writing the final chapter of the 20th Century's third great conflict. The Cold War is now drawing to a close. / And yet today -- as in Churchill's time -- the world remains divided. For all the millions of men and women who won their freedom this past year -- there are hundreds of millions more not yet free. 11 Our challenge today is to overcome this deep division. To marshall the growing forces of the Free World -- to work to bring within reach for the unfree the liberty that belongs by right to all. 11 Thank you, and may God bless the United States of America. # # # CLOSE HOLD SENSITIVE ent No. 162623SS 90 JUL 30 WHITE HOUSE STAFFING MEMORANDUM DATE: 7/30/90 ACTION/CONCURRENCE/COMMENT DUE BY: 7/30/90 3:00 PM SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS: ASPEN INSTITUTE ACTION FYI ACTION FYI VICE PRESIDENT MCCLURE SUNUNU NEWMAN SCOWCROFT PORTER DARMAN ROGICH CARD UNTERMEYER CICCONI ROGERS DEMAREST WINSTON FITZWATER GRAY HAGIN HOLIDAY REMARKS: Please forward any comments directly to Chriss Winston, Rm. 122, x2930, no later than 3:00 PM, Tuesday, July 31, with a copy to my office. Thank you. RESPONSE: Bok James W. Cicconi CLOSE HOLD SENSITIVE Assistant to the President and Deputy to the Chief of Staff Ext. 2702 McGroarty/Dooley July 30, 1990 1990 JUL 30 PM 3. 55 3:30 pm [ASPEN] PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS: THE ASPEN INSTITUTE ASPEN, COLORADO AUGUST 2, 1990 5:30 P.M. [Introductory acknowledgements: Aspen officials, alumni. Prime Minister Thatcher, Ambassador Catto.] I am delighted to celebrate with you the 40th anniversary of the illustrious Aspen Institute. // In those 40 years, the spirit of Aspen has come to signify the attempt to bridge the worlds of thought and action. // And of course, to understand the tremendous changes taking place around us. / Think back to the headlines 40 years ago, the summer of that first Aspen conference in 1950. / North Korea roared across the 38th parallel. Klaus Fuchs was caught and convicted for revealing the secrets of the atom bomb to the Soviets. The Cold War -- a term introduced into our political vocabulary by Bernard Baruch -- had come into its own, as the shorthand to describe the half-way house of an armed and uneasy peace -- a world divided, East from West. / That was the world as Aspen came into being -- the world Aspen sought to study, and to shape. // The forty years since then have been a time of tremendous progress -- for the nations of the West, an era of unparalleled prosperity, peace and freedom. / But at the same time, we lived in a constant condition of tension, Cold War and conflict. // 2 That world is now changing. 11 The decades-old division of Europe is now ending -- and the era of democracy-building has begun. In Germany -- the divided nation in the heart of a divided continent -- unity is now assured, as a free and full member of the NATO alliance. / The Soviet Union itself is in the midst of a political and economic transformation that has brought unprecedented openness -- and begun a process of change that is at once full of hope, and full of uncertainty. 11 This change has had an undeniable impact on national security strategy as well. / The threat of a large-scale land war -- a Soviet invasion of Western Europe launched with little or no warning -- is today more remote than at any point in the post-war period. / With the emergence of democracy in Eastern Europe, the Warsaw Pact has lost its military meaning -- and after more than four decades of dominance, Soviet troops are beginning to withdraw from Central and Eastern Europe. / But the fact remains for all these positive changes that the Soviet Union remains a world-class military power. Even after the conventional arms reductions we are now negotiating, the Soviets will continue to maintain 2 to 3 million men under arms - - a force far larger than any other nation in Europe. / And of course, our number one concern: in spite of severe economic hardship, the Soviets continue to maintain and modernize their arsenal of strategic nuclear weapons. // We and our allies welcome the new course the Soviet Union has chosen. / But prudence demands that we maintain an 3. effective deterrent -- one that secures the peace not only in today's climate of reduced tensions, but provides a safeguard against any future reversal from the Soviet Union's present, positive course. [[NSC INSERT ON STRATEGIC MODERNIZATION. ]] Above all, we cannot mistake the great gains democracy has made this past year as proof that America's work in the world is complete. // All of us agree that never before in the post-war era has the likelihood of global war been lower. And yet, for all the distance we have travelled from the depths of the Cold War, we must also recognize that we have not yet entered an era of perpetual peace. // What we require now is a policy that adapts to the significant changes we've witnessed -- without neglecting the enduring realities that will continue to shape our security strategy. // A policy of peacetime engagement every bit as constant and committed to the defense of our interests and ideals in today's world as in the time of conflict and Cold War. // A policy that recognizes that our enemy is instability -- and that a strong America must remain a force for stability in the world. 11 As long as the United States remains a nation with global interests -- we must maintain a global balance. / American interests in Europe and the Pacific -- the enduring reality of Soviet power -- all are key reasons why maintaining a forward presence will remain an indispensable element of our strategy. 4 For instance -- while we may well change our present operating procedures and patterns of deployment -- no amount of political change will alter the geographical fact that the U.S. must remain a maritime power. 11 And the U.S. will keep a force in Europe as long as our allies believe our presence contributes to stability. / The size and shape of those forces will change, to suit the new and less threatening circumstances -- and to adapt to a new political climate that calls for forces organized along multinational lines. But for the sake of stability, the overall capability of U.S. forces in Europe will remain substantial. // In addition to these enduring security interests, America must possess forces capable of responding to emerging threats in corners of the globe that may not at present seem to pose great danger. / In spite of our best efforts to control the spread of nuclear weapons and ballistic missile technologies, more nations are acquiring weapons of mass destruction -- and the means to deliver them. / Right now, over 100 countries have cruise missiles. 20 countries have the capacity to produce chemical weapons. And by the year 2000, as many as 15 nations will possess ballistic missiles. // In the future, even conflicts we once thought of as regional may carry far-reaching consequences. In this past year, democracy has indeed made great gains. But our world remains one where radicalism, fanaticism, and a destructive form of nationalism continue to breed violence and terror -- aggression and instability. / In a world of renegade 5 regimes and unpredictable rulers -- the U.S. must stand with its allies in defense of our democratic values. /// Our task today is to shape our defense capabilities to the changing strategic circumstances I've just spoken of. / We know that our forces will be smaller. / Secretary Cheney and General Powell are hard at work determining the precise size and composition of the forces we need. But I can tell you now, when all the calculations are complete -- when all our roles and missions are reviewed -- we will be looking at a military force that, within five years, will be 25% smaller than today's. // What matters is how we reshape the forces that remain. The United States would be ill-served by forces that represent nothing more than a scaled-back or shrunken-down version of the ones we possess at present. We could easily end up with more than we need for contingencies that are no longer likely -- and less than we must have to meet emerging challenges. / What we need are not merely reductions -- but restructuring. This restructuring must emphasize three key components essential to sustain American security: To cope with the full range of challenges we may confront, we must focus on readiness and rapid response -- and to prepare today to meet the challenges we may face in the future, we must focus on research -- an active and inventive program of defense R&D. // Let me begin with the component with the greatest long- range consequences -- research. Time and again, we have seen technology revolutionize the battlefield. / The U.S. has always 6 relied upon its technological edge to offset the need to match potential adversaries' strength in numbers. / Cruise missiles, Stealth fighters and bombers, today's "smart" weapons with state- of-the-art guidance systems, and tomorrow's "brilliant" ones -- all of these and more will be a necessary part in prevailing in any future conflict -- and at the same time, saving lives. 11 We must realize the heavy price we will pay if we look for false economies in defense R&D. Most modern weapons systems take a minimum of 10 years to move from the drawing board to the battlefield. / The decisions we make today -- the programs we push forward, or push aside -- will dictate the kind of military forces we have at our disposal in the year 2000 -- and beyond. 11 The nature of national defense demands that we plan now for threats on the distant horizon. // Second, as we restructure, we must put a premium on readiness. // True military capability never exists on paper - -it is measured in the hours spent, and experience gained, on the training ground, under sail, and in the cockpit. Nothing is more short-sighted than cutting training time to cut costs -- and nothing is more demoralizing for our troops than to deny them the training time they need. 11 Our soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines must be well-trained, tried and tested -- ready to perform every mission we ask of them. // In our restructured forces, reserves will continue to play a special role. The need to be prepared for a massive, short-term mobilization has diminished -- along with the threat of Soviet 7 aggression. Instead of measuring warning time in terms of days and weeks as we were forced to do for the past 40 years -- by the mid-90's, we expect much longer notice of any return to the levels of confrontation that existed in the depths of the Cold War: signs that we could recognize at least one to two years before the outbreak of aggression. // Today we must focus on the capacity to reconstitute our forces -- to rebuild essential capabilities -- in a time of increased instability. Finally, we must focus on rapid response. As we saw most recently in OPERATION JUST CAUSE, the U.S. may be called on to respond to threats from various points on the compass. In an era when threats may well emerge without warning, our ability to defend our interests will depend on our speed and agility. In many of the conflicts we may face in the future, we will not have the luxury of matching manpower with pre-positioned materiel. That will require air and sea-lift capacities at the very least equal to if not more capable than those we possess today. // A rational restructuring of the kind I've outlined will take five years. And I am confident we can meet the challenges I've outlined today -- provided we proceed with an orderly build-down -- not a fire sale. Any build-down of this magnitude must be managed carefully to minimize dislocations -- not just to the military balance, but to morale. And I can say right now, as Commander-in-Chief, that I will not break faith with the young men and women who have freely chosen to serve their country. // 8 All of us know the challenges we face are fiscal, as well as military. / The budget constraints we face are very real -- but so too is the need for a strong and secure America. The simple fact is: when it comes to national security, America can never afford to fail or fall short. 111 Let me say once again how pleased I am to appear here today -- especially with our honored friend, Mrs. Thatcher. / Today, of course, is not the first time President and Prime Minister have shared the stage. That was 44 years ago -- in Fulton, Missouri. // Mrs. Thatcher, the world remembers the address Churchill delivered that day as the "Iron Curtain" speech. / But that wasn't what he called it. He titled it / "The Sinews of Peace." // By that, he meant to summon up a vision of the strength of free nations -- united in defense of democracy. // At long last, we are writing the final chapter of the 20th Century's third great conflict. The Cold War is now drawing to a close. / And yet today -- as in Churchill's time -- the world remains divided. For all the millions of men and women who won their freedom this past year -- there are hundreds of millions more not yet free. 11 Our challenge today is to overcome this deep division. To marshall the growing forces of the Free World -- to work to bring within reach for the unfree the liberty that belongs by right to all. // Thank you, and may God bless the United States of America. # # # VISIT OF THE PRESIDENT TO ASPEN, COLORADO 03 AUGUST 2, 1990 PAGE THE ASPEN INSTITUTE SEATING FOR DAIS 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 PODIUM AUG 1 11:22 1. Mr. - Mortimer Adler, Director 6. Mr. Lodwrick Cook, Chairman and Institute forPhilosophical Research CEO, ARCO 2. Mr. Michael I. Sovern, President, Columbia University 7. Mrs. Margaret Thatcher, Prime 3. Mr. John J. Phelan, Jr., Chairman, Board of Trustees, Minister, Great Britain The Aspen Institute 8. Mr. Henry Catto, Ambassador to 4. THE PRESIDENT Great Britain 5. Mr. David T. McLaughlin, President, 9. Ms. Ann Frasher Hudson, Chairman The Aspen Institute 40th Anniversary Committee, Th Aspen Institute 10. Mrs. Jessica Catto 11. Mr. Leonard Lauder, Chairman an Estee Lauder Companies 6128 CLOSE HOLD SENSITIVE No. 162623SS WHITE HOUSE STAFFING MEMORANDUM 90 JUL 31 A : 50 DATE: 7/30/90 ACTION/CONCURRENCE/COMMENT DUE BY: 7/30/90 3:00 PM SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS: ASPEN INSTITUTE ACTION FYI ACTION FYI VICE PRESIDENT MCCLURE SUNUNU NEWMAN SCOWCROFT PORTER DARMAN ROGICH CARD UNTERMEYER CICCONI ROGERS DEMAREST WINSTON FITZWATER GRAY HAGIN HOLIDAY REMARKS: Please forward any comments directly to Chriss Winston, Rm. 122, x2930, no later than 3:00 PM, Tuesday, July 31, with a copy to my office. Thank you. July 31, 1990 RESPONSE: The National Security Council staff has reviewed and forwards the attached comments. Bo Brent Scowcorft James W. Cicconi CLOSE HOLD SENSITIVE Assistant to the President and Deputy to the Chief of Staff Ext. 2702 McGroarty/Dooley July 30, 1990 IS90 JUL 30 PH 3.55 3:30 pm [ASPEN] PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS: THE ASPEN INSTITUTE ASPEN, COLORADO AUGUST 2, 1990 5:30 P.M. [Introductory acknowledgements: Aspen officials, alumni. Prime Minister Thatcher, Ambassador Catto.] I am delighted to celebrate with you the 40th anniversary of the illustrious Aspen Institute. // In those 40 years, the spirit of Aspen has come to signify the attempt to bridge the worlds of thought and action. // And of course, to understand the tremendous changes taking place around us. / Think back to the headlines 40 years ago, the Stalin was at the pank of his power -- and Paranoia. summer of that first Aspen conference in 1950. / North Korea had just roared across the 38th parallel. Klaus Fuchs was caught and convicted for revealing the secrets of the atom bomb to the Soviets. The Cold War -- a term introduced into our political vocabulary by Bernard Baruch -- had come into its own, as the an shorthand to describe the half way house of an an armed and uneasy truce peace -- a world divided, East from West. / That was the world as Aspen came into being -- the world Aspen sought to study, and to shape. 11 The forty years since then have been a time of tremendous progress -- for the nations of the West, an era of unparalleled prosperity, peace and freedom. / But at the same time, we lived in a constant condition of tension, Cold War and conflict. // 2 That world is now changing. 11 The decades-old division of Europe is now ending -- and the era of democracy-building has begun. In Germany -- the divided nation in the heart of a divided continent -- unity is now assured, as a free and full member of the NATO alliance. / The Soviet Union itself is in the midst of a political and economic transformation that has brought unprecedented openness E and begun 2 process of change] that is at once full of hope, and full of uncertainty. // Thus, our security environment, too, IS transformed. we are entering a now era. This change has had an undeniable impact on national The defense strategy and military Forces needed to ensure peace can and must-- be different. security strategy as well. / The threat of [& large scale land war a Soviet invasion of Western Europe launched with little or no warning AN is today more remote than at any point in the post-war period. / With the emergence of democracy in Eastern Europe, the Warsaw Pact has lost its military meaning -- and after more than four decades of dominance, Soviet troops are [beginning $7 withdraw ing from Central and Eastern Europe. / our task today IS to shape our defense capabilities to these changing strategic circumstances. In a world less driven by an immediate threat to Europe and global war -- in a world where arms control agreements contribute to stability -- we know 3 that our forces will be smaller. / Secretary Cheney and General Powell are hard at work determining the precise size and composition of the forces we need. But I can tell you now, when the prugrams all the calculations are complete -- when all our roles and are set missions are reviewed -- we will be looking at a military force that, within five years, will be 25% smaller than today's. 11 That will be the lowest level since 1950. MOST What matters is how we reshape the forces that remain. The United States would be ill-served by forces that represent nothing more than a scaled-back or shrunken-down version of the ones we possess at present. We could easily end up with more than we need for contingencies that are no longer likely -- and less than we must have to meet emerging challenges. / What we need are not merely reductions -- but restructuring. destruct What we require now is a^policy that adapts to the we are witnessing significant changes we ve witnessed -- without neglecting the enduring realities that will continue to shape our security strategy. // A policy of peacetime engagement every bit as constant and committed to the defense of our interests and ideals sharper East- west in today's world as in the time of conflict and Cold War. 11EA A policy that recognizes that our enemy is instability and that strong America must remain a force for stability in the world. 11 4 we are inescapably a leader, the connecting link in a global alliance of domocracies, the pivotal Factor Fur stability peaceful chunge. / American in the Mediterranean interests in Europe and the Pacific the endurtro reality of and the Persian Gulf Soviet power all are key reasons why maintaining a forward presence will remain an indispensable element of our strategy. A world of terrorism, hostage crises, spreading weapons technology, and new sources of instability 15 a world that requires a strong and engaged America. that, we have seen, And the fact remains for all the positive changes the Soviet Union remains a world-class military power. Even after the conventional arms reductions we are now negotiating, the Soviets will continue to maintain 2 to 3 million men under arms, a force far larger than any other nation in Europe / And of course, our number one concern: spite of severe economic hardship the Soviets continue to maintain and modernize their arsenal of strategic nuclear weapons. // We and our allies welcome the new course the Soviet Union has chosen. / But prudence demands that we maintain an 5 effective deterrent -- one that secures the peace not only in that ensures that renewed today's climate of reduced tensions, but provides a safeguard confrontation IS not an option For any Soviet leadership against any future reversal from the Seviet Union's present, We must continue with our strategic modernization. We need the B-2. Secretary Cheney has already scaled back the program as much as makes sense. Further delays will only increase costs. We need to complete the Trident program -- to ensure a survivable, submarine-based deterrent. We can defer a decision on our land-based ICBMs -- as we see how the START talks proceed -- but we must keep our options open: and that means completing the development of the small ICBM and the rail-based Peacekeeper. I am convinced that strategic defense makes more sense And finally, as long as technology holds out hope, we cannet than ever before remain without any defense against ballistic missiles attack by of of choice. We must push forward/the very promising research being done by SDI. P 6 And the United states will Keep a torre in Europe as long as we and our allies see a need For it is part of a common security effort. The size and shape of those Forces will change, to suit the nyw and less threatening circumstances. But with all the uncertainties about Europo's Future, on American departure hould risk a gropolitical earthquake. That is historic lesson. we will remain in Europe to deter any now dangers, to re-assure all of Europe, East and West, that the European balance will semain secure. Outside of Europe, In addition to these enduring security interests, America to must possess forces able respond to threats in whatever corners of the globe that they may not at present seem to pose great may occur. chemical and danger. / In spite of our best efforts to control the spread of nuclear weapons and ballistic missile technologies, more nations are acquiring weapons of mass destruction -- and the means to deliver them. E Right now, over 100 countries have eruise missiles 20 countries have the capacity to produce chemical cal weapons. And by the year 2000 as many as 15 nations will possess ballistic missiles. local II In the future, even conflicts we once thought of as regional may carry far-reaching consequences. In this past year, democracy has indeed made great gains. But our world remains one where radicalism, fanaticism, and a destructive form of nationalism continue to breed violence and terror -- aggression and instability. / In a world of renegade 7 regimes and unpredictable rulers -- the U.S. must stand with its to protect its citizens and to defand its allies Gn defense of our) democratic values. /// R This restructuring must emphasize three key components essential to sustain American security: To cope with the full range of challenges we may confront, we must focus on readiness and rapid response -- and to prepare today to meet the challenges we may face in the future, we must focus on research -- an active and inventive program of defense R&D. 11 Let me begin with the component with the greatest long- range consequences -- research. Time and again, we have seen technology revolutionize the battlefield. / The U.S. has always relied upon its technological edge to offset the need to match potential adversaries' strength in numbers. / Cruise missiles, Stealth fighters and bombers, today's "smart" weapons with state- of-the-art guidance systems, and tomorrow's "brilliant" ones -- these technologies will win conFlicts and save precious liws all of these and more will be a necessary part in prevailing in any future conflict and at the same time, saving lives. 11 We must realize the heavy price we will pay if we look for false economies in defense R&D. Most modern weapons systems take a minimum of 10 years to move from the drawing board to the battlefield. / The decisions we make today -- the programs we push forward, or push aside -- will dictate the kind of military forces we have at our disposal in the year 2000 -- and beyond. [1, The nature of national defense demands that we plan now for threats on the distant horison. TY 4 Secondly Hamily, we must focus on rapid response. As we saw most recently in [CRERATION Panama JUST CAUSE] the U.S. may be called on to a variety OF challenges respond to from various points on the compass. In an era when threats may well emerge without warning, our ability to defend our interests will depend on our speed and agility. We will need Forces that give us global reach. No amount if political change will alter the geographic fact that we are separated from many of our most important allies and interests by thousands of miles of water. And, Xn many of the conflicts we may face in the future, we 1 may not have the luxury of matching manpower with pre-positioned materiel. That will require air and sea-lift capacities at the very least equal to if not more cápable than those we possess to get our Forces where they are needed when they today # are needed. A new emphasis on Flexibility and versatility should guide our efforts now that the European Central Front no longer A so dominates our planning 3 Finally, as we restructure, we must adjust the readiness levels of our total Force. For those active Forces we will rely on to respond to crises, readiness will of Our highest priority - // True military capability never exists on paper - -it is measured in the hours spent, and experience gained, on the training ground, under sail, and in the cockpit. Nothing is more short-sighted than cutting training time to cut costs -- and nothing is. more demoralizing for our troops than to deny them the training time they need. // Our soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines must be well-trained, tried and tested -- ready to perform every mission we ask of them. // In our restructured Forces, reserves will be important, but in now ways. The need to be prepared -- that so long dominated 30/ planning For a massive, short-notire mobilization ^ has diminished. we can now adjust both the size and readines, OF OUI reserve Force, to help US deal with the more likely challenges we will Face. 10 Our strategy will guard against a major reversal in Soviet intentions by incorporating into our planning the concept of national regeneration of our forces -- a concept significantly different from our concept of mobilization over the past 40 years. By the mid-90s, the much longer notice we can expect of any return to the levels of confrontation that marked the Cold War will allow us to plan to rely not just on existing forces but to generate wholly new forces. This explicit determination to remain ready to rebuild our forces will be an important element in our ability to deter. A rational restructuring of the kind I've outlined will take five years. And I am confident we can meet the challenges I've outlined today -- provided we proceed with an orderly build-down -- not a fire sale. Any build-down of this magnitude must be managed carefully to minimize dislocations -- not just to the military balance, but to morale. And I can say right now, as Commander-in-Chief, that I will not break faith with the young men and women who have freely chosen to serve their country. 11 we will take every step possible to minimize the turbulence these changes will rreate For our soldiers, sailors, airmun and marines Let me tell you that your President, the American people, and indead people the world over know of your contribution to Freedom All of us know the challenges we face are fiscal, as well as military. / The budget constraints we face are very real -- but so too is the need for a strong and secure America. The simple fact is: when it comes to national security, America can never afford to fail or fall short. 111 Let me say once again how pleased I am to appear here today -- especially with our honored friend, Mrs. Thatcher. / Today, of course, is not the first time President and Prime Minister have shared the stage. That was 44 years ago -- in Fulton, Missouri. 11 Mrs. Thatcher, the world remembers the address Churchill delivered that day as the "Iron Curtain" speech. / But that wasn't what he called it. He titled it / "The Sinews of Peace." // By that, he meant to summon up a vision of the strength of free nations -- united in defense of democracy. 11 At long last, we are writing the final chapter of the 20th Century's third great conflict. The Cold War is now drawing to a close. / A But, in a world marked by rapid change and continuing uncertainty, we will not repeat the historical error of massive demobilization, nor take fleeting comfort in a false sense of insularity. We are forging a strategy, -- a strategy suited to both the opportunities and challenges before us, SENT BY:The TICKET CENTER ; 7-31-90 ; 8:53AM ; LEGISLATIVE AFFAIRS- 2024566218;# 1 RCD. CLOSE HOLD SENSITIVE No. 1626235S 4:50pm WHITE HOUSE STAFFING MEMORANDUM 90 JUL 30 P9: 07 DATE: 7/30/90 7/31 /30/90 3:00 PM ACTION/CONCURRENCE/COMMENT DUE BY: SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS: ASPEN INSTITUTF ACTION FYI ACTION FYI VICE PRESIDENT MCCLURE SUNUNU NEWMAN SCOWCROFT PORTER DARMAN ROGICH CARD UNTERMEYER CICCONI ROGERS DEMAREST WINSTON FITZWATER GRAY HAGIN HOLIDAY REMARKS: Please forward any comments directly to Chriss Winston, Rm. 122, x2930, no later than 3:00 PM, Tuesday, July 31, with a copy to my office. Thank you. RESPONSE: No Comment 7/30/90 James W. Cicconi CLOSE HOLD SENSITIVE Assistant to the President and Deputy to the Chief of Staff Ext. 2702 McGroarty/Dooley July 30, 1990 3:30 pm [ASPEN] PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS: THE ASPEN INSTITUTE ASPEN, COLORADO AUGUST 2, 1990 5:30 P.M. [Introductory acknowledgements: Aspen officials, alumni. Prime Minister Thatcher, Ambassador Catto.] I am delighted to celebrate with you the 40th anniversary of the illustrious Aspen Institute. // In those 40 years, the spirit of Aspen has come to signify the attempt to bridge the worlds of thought and action. // And of course, to understand the tremendous changes taking place around us. / Think back to the headlines 40 years ago, the summer of that first Aspen conference in 1950. / North Korea roared across the 38th parallel. Klaus Fuchs was caught and convicted for revealing the secrets of the atom bomb to the Soviets. The Cold War -- a term introduced into our political vocabulary by Bernard Baruch -- had come into its own, as the shorthand to describe the half-way house of an armed and uneasy peace -- a world divided, East from West. / That was the world as Aspen came into being -- the world Aspen sought to study, and to shape. // The forty years since then have been a time of tremendous progress -- for the nations of the West, an era of unparalleled prosperity, peace and freedom. / But at the same time, we lived in a constant condition of tension, Cold War and conflict. // 2 That world is now changing. 11 The decades-old division of Europe is now ending -- and the era of democracy-building has begun. In Germany -- the divided nation in the heart of a divided continent -- unity is now assured, as a free and full member of the NATO alliance. / The Soviet Union itself is in the midst of a political and economic transformation that has brought unprecedented openness -- and begun a process of change that is at once full of hope, and full of uncertainty. // This change has had an undeniable impact on national security strategy as well. / The threat of a large-scale land war -- a Soviet invasion of Western Europe launched with little or no warning -- is today more remote than at any point in the post-war period. / With the emergence of democracy in Eastern Europe, the Warsaw Pact has lost its military meaning -- and after more than four decades of dominance, Soviet troops are beginning to withdraw from Central and Eastern Europe. / But the fact remains for all these positive changes that the Soviet Union remains a world-class military power. Even after the conventional arms reductions we are now negotiating, the Soviets will continue to maintain 2 to 3 million men under arms - - a force far larger than any other nation in Europe. / And of course, our number one concern: in spite of severe economic hardship, the Soviets continue to maintain and modernize their arsenal of strategic nuclear weapons. 11 We and our allies welcome the new course the Soviet Union has chosen. / But prudence demands that we maintain an 3 effective deterrent -- one that secures the peace not only in today's climate of reduced tensions, but provides a safeguard against any future reversal from the Soviet Union's present, positive course. [[NSC INSERT ON STRATEGIC MODERNIZATION. ]] Above all, we cannot mistake the great gains democracy has made this past year as proof that America's work in the world is complete. // All of us agree that never before in the post-war era has the likelihood of global war been lower. And yet, for all the distance we have travelled from the depths of the Cold War, we must also recognize that we have not yet entered an era of perpetual peace. // What we require now is a policy that adapts to the significant changes we've witnessed -- without neglecting the enduring realities that will continue to shape our security strategy. // A policy of peacetime engagement every bit as constant and committed to the defense of our interests and ideals in today's world as in the time of conflict and Cold War. // A policy that recognizes that our enemy is instability -- and that a strong America must remain a force for stability in the world. 11 As long as the United States remains a nation with global interests -- we must maintain a global balance. / American interests in Europe and the Pacific -- the enduring reality of Soviet power -- all are key reasons why maintaining a forward presence will remain an indispensable element of our strategy. 4 For instance -- while we may well change our present operating procedures and patterns of deployment -- no amount of political change will alter the geographical fact that the U.S. must remain a maritime power. // And the U.S. will keep a force in Europe as long as our allies believe our presence contributes to stability. / The size and shape of those forces will change, to suit the new and less threatening circumstances -- and to adapt to a new political climate that calls for forces organized along multinational lines. But for the sake of stability, the overall capability of U.S. forces in Europe will remain substantial. // In addition to these enduring security interests, America must possess forces capable of responding to emerging threats in corners of the globe that may not at present seem to pose great danger. / In spite of our best efforts to control the spread of nuclear weapons and ballistic missile technologies, more nations are acquiring weapons of mass destruction -- and the means to deliver them. / Right now, over 100 countries have cruise missiles. 20 countries have the capacity to produce chemical weapons. And by the year 2000, as many as 15 nations will possess ballistic missiles. // In the future, even conflicts we once thought of as regional may carry far-reaching consequences. In this past year, democracy has indeed made great gains. But our world remains one where radicalism, fanaticism, and a destructive form of nationalism continue to breed violence and terror -- aggression and instability. / In a world of renegade 5 regimes and unpredictable rulers -- the U.S. must stand with its allies in defense of our democratic values. /// Our task today is to shape our defense capabilities to the changing strategic circumstances I've just spoken of. / We know that our forces will be smaller. / Secretary Cheney and General Powell are hard at work determining the precise size and composition of the forces we need. But I can tell you now, when all the calculations are complete -- when all our roles and missions are reviewed -- we will be looking at a military force that, within five years, will be 25% smaller than today's. 11 What matters is how we reshape the forces that remain. The United States would be ill-served by forces that represent nothing more than a scaled-back or shrunken-down version of the ones we possess at present. We could easily end up with more than we need for contingencies that are no longer likely -- and less than we must have to meet emerging challenges. / What we need are not merely reductions -- but restructuring. This restructuring must emphasize three key components essential to sustain American security: To cope with the full range of challenges we may confront, we must focus on readiness and rapid response -- and to prepare today to meet the challenges we may face in the future, we must focus on research -- an active and inventive program of defense R&D. // Let me begin with the component with the greatest long- range consequences -- research. Time and again, we have seen technology revolutionize the battlefield. / The U.S. has always 6 relied upon its technological edge to offset the need to match potential adversaries' strength in numbers. / Cruise missiles, Stealth fighters and bombers, today's "smart" weapons with state- of-the-art guidance systems, and tomorrow's "brilliant" ones -- all of these and more will be a necessary part in prevailing in any future conflict -- and at the same time, saving lives. 11 We must realize the heavy price we will pay if we look for false economies in defense R&D. Most modern weapons systems take a minimum of 10 years to move from the drawing board to the battlefield. / The decisions we make today -- the programs we push forward, or push aside -- will dictate the kind of military forces we have at our disposal in the year 2000 -- and beyond. // The nature of national defense demands that we plan now for threats on the distant horizon. // Second, as we restructure, we must put a premium on readiness. // True military capability never exists on paper - -it is measured in the hours spent, and experience gained, on the training ground, under sail, and in the cockpit. Nothing is more short-sighted than cutting training time to cut costs -- and nothing is more demoralizing for our troops than to deny them the training time they need. // Our soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines must be well-trained, tried and tested -- ready to perform every mission we ask of them. // In our restructured forces, reserves will continue to play a special role. The need to be prepared for a massive, short-term mobilization has diminished -- along with the threat of Soviet 7 aggression. Instead of measuring warning time in terms of days and weeks as we were forced to do for the past 40 years -- by the mid-90's, we expect much longer notice of any return to the levels of confrontation that existed in the depths of the Cold War: signs that we could recognize at least one to two years before the outbreak of aggression. // Today we must focus on the capacity to reconstitute our forces -- to rebuild essential capabilities -- in a time of increased instability. Finally, we must focus on rapid response. As we saw most recently in OPERATION JUST CAUSE, the U.S. may be called on to respond to threats from various points on the compass. In an era when threats may well emerge without warning, our ability to defend our interests will depend on our speed and agility. In many of the conflicts we may face in the future, we will not have the luxury of matching manpower with pre-positioned materiel. That will require air and sea-lift capacities at the very least equal to if not more capable than those we possess today. // A rational restructuring of the kind I've outlined will take five years. And I am confident we can meet the challenges I've outlined today -- provided we proceed with an orderly build-down -- not a fire sale. Any build-down of this magnitude must be managed carefully to minimize dislocations -- not just to the military balance, but to morale. And I can say right now, as Commander-in-Chief, that I will not break faith with the young men and women who have freely chosen to serve their country. // 8 All of us know the challenges we face are fiscal, as well as military. / The budget constraints we face are very real -- but so too is the need for a strong and secure America. The simple fact is: when it comes to national security, America can never afford to fail or fall short. /// Let me say once again how pleased I am to appear here today -- especially with our honored friend, Mrs. Thatcher. / Today, of course, is not the first time President and Prime Minister have shared the stage. That was 44 years ago -- in Fulton, Missouri. // Mrs. Thatcher, the world remembers the address Churchill delivered that day as the "Iron Curtain" speech. / But that wasn't what he called it. He titled it / "The Sinews of Peace." 11 By that, he meant to summon up a vision of the strength of free nations -- united in defense of democracy. // At long last, we are writing the final chapter of the 20th Century's third great conflict. The Cold War is now drawing to a close. / And yet today -- as in Churchill's time -- the world remains divided. For all the millions of men and women who won their freedom this past year -- there are hundreds of millions more not yet free. 11 Our challenge today is to overcome this deep division. To marshall the growing forces of the Free World -- to work to bring within reach for the unfree the liberty that belongs by right to all. // Thank you, and may God bless the United States of America. # # # THE ASPEN INSTITUTE 40TH ANNIVERSARY SYMPOSIUM ASPEN, COLORADO August 2-5. 1990 RENEWAL: LEADERSHIP AND VALUES FOR THE 21ST CENTURY SYMPOSIUM GOALS The Symposium is designed, on the occasion of the celebration of the 40th Anniversary of The Aspen Institute's first Executive Seminar, to underscore the continuing, and growing, relevance of the themes that have distinguished the Institute's programs since 1950: The role of enlightened private and public sector leadership in managing domestic and international challenges. The central importance of the philosophical and ethical values that have underpinned the democratic institutions and open societies which, now more than ever, appear as the best and most hopeful form of human community. The Symposium aims to make a practical contribution to our understanding of how these themes can enhance our ability to deal with major domestic and international challenges that we can foresee in the next 40 years. PROGRAM OUTLINE The program of the Symposium will consist of: Two major addresses, at the beginning and end. Two plenary sessions, one addressed to major domestic issues and the second to major international issues that will challenge leadership and values in the next decade and beyond. Two sessions in which the participants will break up into Working Groups to address recommendations for practical action on the key issues raised in the Symposium. The results of these group discussions will be reported to a plenary session just before the closing address. Page 2 Keynote and Closing Addresses These will be given by major public figures who will address the overall themes of the Symposium. Plenary Session 1: Rebuilding the U.S. National Community The United States must resolve several major domestic problems if it is to regain the social cohesion and economic strength to which the U.S. people aspire, and which are essential if the nation is to continue to play a leadership role in the world. U.S. society currently lacks the shared values and sense of common purpose on which the leadership needed to resolve these problems can be based. The session will address this need for shared values and a stronger sense of community by reference to three specific issues -- education and economic competitiveness, the challenges posed by the growing problems of poverty and a disadvantaged underclass, with special emphasis on minority communities, and the problem of providing adequate health care for all Americans. The session will also address the respective roles of federal and state governments and the private sector in addressing these issues. Plenary Session 2: Shaping a New Global Community Even though the major strategic questions of the post-World War II period have not yet been finally resolved, the outline of the major challenges to the international community in the coming decades is becoming evident -- the challenge of building democratic societies and market economies on the ruins of totalitarian systems, the protection of the global environment, and the problems of economic and social development and their relationship to population growth. The international community is only starting to measure the unprecedented demands for international cooperation and restraint that will be needed to respond to these challenges. The session will discuss these demands, the resources available in the private and public sectors, in the United States and abroad, to address these problems, and the role that the United States and others countries can and should play in guiding the emergence of a true global community. Page 3 Working Group Sessions: Three Working Groups will be convened after each of the plenary meetings. They will each be assigned one of the following topics: Domestic Issues: Education and Economic Competitiveness Poverty and the Underclass Health Care International Issues: Transforming Post-Communist Societies Global Environment Social and Economic Development in the Developing Countries Each group will be charged to develop practical proposals for action that would help to increase the sense of shared values and goals in the domestic and international communities and stimulate the leadership needed to respond to emerging challenges. Plenary Session 3: At the final plenary session, the chairpersons of the Working Groups will report on their groups and on their recommendations for action. July 10, 1990 ASPEN INSTITUTE 40TH ANNIVERSARY SYMPOSIUM Program Outline Thursday, August 2, 1990 4:00 P.M. - 6:00 P.M. Introductory Session: The Aspen Institute at Forty Chair: David T. McLaughlin President, The Aspen Institute Speakers: Roy Romer, Governor of Colorado Michael I. Sovern, President, Columbia University Mortimer J. Adler, Director, Institute for Philosophical Research Keynote Address Speaker: President George Bush Friday, August 3, 1990 9:00 A.M. - 12:30 P.M. Plenary Session 1: Rebuilding the U.S. National Community Chair: Bill Moyers Public Affairs TV Speakers: John J. Phelan, Jr., Chairman and CEO, New York Stock Exchange, Inc. L. Douglas Wilder, Governor, Commonwealth of Virginia Gloria Molina, Member, Los Angeles City Council Albert Shanker, President, American Federation of Teachers Donald E. Petersen, Former Chairman and CEO, Ford Motor Company Richard D. Lamm, Former Governor of Colorado; Director, Center for Public and Contemporary Issues, University of Denver ASPEN INSTITUTE 40TH ANNIVERSARY SYMPOSIUM PROGRAM OUTLINE PAGE 2 Friday, August 3, 1990 (Continued) 2:30 P.M. - 5:30 P.M. Working Group Sessions: Domestic Issues Education and Economic Competitiveness Chair: Ernest Boyer, President, Carnegie Foundation for the Advancement of Teaching Speakers: William P. Hobby, Lt. Governor of Texas Albert Shanker, President, American Federation of Teachers Poverty and the Underclass Chair: Sol Trujillo, Vice President and General Manager, US WEST Communications Speakers: Mary Jo Bane, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University Douglas J. Besharov, Director of Social Policy Studies, American Enterprise Institute Health Care Chair: Charles C. Edwards, President, Scripps Clinic and Research Foundation Speakers: David U. Himmelstein, M.D., Chief, Division of Social and Community Medicine, Cambridge Hospital, Harvard Medical School Alain C. Enthoven, Marriner S. Eccles Professor of Public and Private Management, Graduate School of Business, Stanford University ASPEN INSTITUTE 40TH ANNIVERSARY SYMPOSIUM PROGRAM OUTLINE PAGE 3 Saturday, August 4, 1990 9:00 A.M. - 12:30 P.M. Plenary Session 2: Shaping a New Global Community Chair: Barbara Walters ABC News Speakers: Paul A. Volcker, Former Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Ivan Berend, Former President, Hungarian Academy of Science Ambassador Olara A. Otunnu, President, International Peace Academy Nafis Sadik, Executive Director, U.N. Fund for Population Activities Kiichi Miyazawa, Member of Japanese House of Representatives; Former Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Giorgio La Malfa, Secretary, Italian Republican Party 2:30 P.M. - 5:30 P.M. Working Group Sessions: International Issues Transforming Post-Communist Societies Chair: Joseph S. Nye, Jr., Director, Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University Speakers: Rita Klimova, Ambassador of Czechoslovakia Robert Legvold, Director, Harriman Institute for Advanced Study of the Soviet Union, Columbia University Global Environment Chair: Tim Wirth, U.S. Senator, Colorado Speakers: Jessica Tuchman Mathews, Vice President, World Resources Institute Thomas G. Schelling, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University ASPEN INSTITUTE 40TH ANNIVERSARY SYMPOSIUM PROGRAM OUTLINE PAGE 4 Saturday, August 4, 1990 (Continued) Social and Economic Development in the Developing Countries Chair: Robert S. McNamara, Former President, The World Bank Speakers: Barber B. Conable, President, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development Sir Shridath Ramphal, Secretary-General of the Commonwealth Paul S. Sarbanes, U.S. Senator, Maryland Sunday, August 5, 1990 8:00 A.M. - 9:30 A.M. Plenary Session 3: Working Group Reports Chairs: Bill Moyers Public Affairs TV Barbara Walters ABC News Concluding Address 10:00 A.M. - 11:00 A.M. Chair: Henry E. Catto, U.S. Ambassador, London Speaker: Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher July 24, 1990