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Clean Air Act Announcement 6/8/89 [OA 6264] [3]
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This is not a textual record. This is used as an
administrative marker by the George Bush Presidential
Library Staff.
Record Group/Collection:
George H.W. Bush Presidential Records
Collection/Office of Origin:
Speechwriting, White House Office of
Series:
Speech File Backup Files
Subseries:
Chron File, 1989-1993
OA/ID Number:
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Folder ID Number:
13672-002
Folder Title:
Clean Air Act Announcement 6/8/89 [OA 6264] [3]
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26
19
1
6
A18 SUNDAY, JUNE 4, 1989
R1
THIWASHINGTON POST
THE CLEAN AR ACT: A SCORECA
T
he Clean Air Act of 1970 was the
OZONE
most comprehensive air pollution
control bill in U.S. history. It was
signed into law by President Richard M.
Ozone is famed by the combination of
Nixon on Dec. 31, 1970, and amended in
sunlight and VO pollutants-nitrogen di-
1974, 1977 and 1981.
oxide and hyrocarbons-discharged by
Among its major provisions, the law:
motor vehicleand industry.
Authorized the Environmental Protec-
So-called ad ozone-to distinguish
tion Agency to set national air quality
from the OZOP being depleted in the up-
standards for the most pervasive pollut-
per atmosphee-has proven to be the
ants from "diverse and numerous
most stubboripollutant, especially in hot,
sources.'
sunny weathe that intensifies the photo-
Required states to draft plans for im-
chemical procss. When ozone binds with
plementation of those standards by 1975.
particles put to the air by factories or
Set punishments for states failing to
traffic, it can ecome the yellowish smog
common to Ds Angeles or the "brown
submit or pursue implementation plans,
cloud" of Phoeix.
including construction bans, freeze of fed-
Ozone's effcts are similar to cigarette
eral grants and imposition of federal anti-
smoke. It stitulates certain cells in the
pollution program.
airways, releang substances that damage
Set the first targets for reduction of
cells in the lugs, causing stretching and
motor vehicle emissions and deadlines for
inflamation our time. A sudden, heavy
their implementation.
Most cities meet standards for sulfur dioxide,
blast of ozonican decrease lung power
Authorized EPA standards for dis-
Despite
produced by power plants and refineries.
and prompt dughing in healthy people
still the
charge of hazardous industrial pollutants.
and cause asthatics to wheeze.
Authorized citizens or groups to file suit
Not as muciwas known about ozone 10
in federal court against the EPA or vio-
lators for failure to perform duties.
LEAD
years ago, who the EPA committed what
critics now reard as one of the nation's
CAI
Fulfilling its directive to regulate dan-
costliest publinealth mistakes.
gerous airborne substances, the EPA de-
Eliminating a large proportion of this
The agencywas under pressure from
An
veloped standards for five pervasive pol-
toxic metal, present in the atmosphere in
the oil industr to relax the ozone stan-
plete
lutants: ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen
the form of particles and fumes released
dard of .08 pats per million (ppm) set in
gasoli
dioxide, sulfur dioxide and particulates.
by smelters and motor vehicles that burn
1971. A stud of healthy volunteers ex-
oxide
Lead was added in 1978.
leaded gasoline, has been the single great-
posed to ozonishowed no ill effects up to
displa
Pollutants supposedly limited to indus-
est achievement of the Clean Air Act.
.15 ppm. So, he agency set a new stan-
the 0
trial areas that have extremely harmful
Emissions of lead, which can cause neu-
dard of .12 ppl, a 50 percent increase.
Reduc
effects at low levels were to be'controlled
rological damage in children, complicate
Since that ime scientists have found
dull tl
at the point of emission. The EPA is fre-
pregnancies and raise blood pressure after
that much loer levels cause significant
and V
quently criticized for failing to regulate
it is absorbed by the bloodstream through
loss of lung pwer in healthy people and
gina
more than a handful of these "hazardous"
the lungs, have been cut 96 percent since
that the dange accumulates over long
have 1
pollutants.
1970. Only a few communities near lead
periods. Asthiatics, tested for the first
Car
The agency also is faulted for failing to
smelters and battery reclamation plants
time, have demonstrated even graver ef-
ly aft
enforce the standards it set for the six.
exceed the standards today.
fects from ozde exposure.
which
airborne substances, resulting in scores of
But this owes a lot to serendipity: Cat-
The Univesity of Arizona Medical
mass
cities in violation. And the standards
alytic converters are unable to operate on
School has stdied 1,000 families in Tuc-
creasi
themselves are widely regarded as too
automobiles using leaded gasoline. The
son since 198, the nation's longest run-
weigh
lenient.
devices were not specifically designed to
ning epidemiogical study of ozone. Asth-
techno
Congress said that the standards be
solve the nation's lead problem, but by
matic childre have shown significant
Tod
stringent enough to protect public health
becoming standard equipment in most
losses of lungower at .055 ppm. At .08
epiden
with an "adequate margin of safety" to com-
cars since 1975, they forced oil companies
ppm, they bein wheezing. At the current
ropolit
pensate for effects not known at the time.
to refine unleaded gasoline and helped
standard of ppm, they suffer attacks.
The
Anticipating further scientific advances,
make the EPA's lead phase-down policy
The ozonestandard has not been re-
bon me
Congress ordered EPA in 1977 to reeval-
politically palatable.
worked since 1979, despite Congress's
deadlir
uate the standards by Dec. 31, 1980, and
The EPA did not set a lead standard
mandate of fe-year reviews and the in-
creasing leve of the pollutant in more
perts
every five years thereafter.
until 1978 when a federal court ordered it.
structi
But EPA fell far behind this schedule.
The agency had argued that the phase-
placès. An EA review is expected to be
Only ozone was revisited by the 1980 dead-
down of leaded gasoline begun in the
finished this ar.
proble
line, and the standard was relaxed. By now
1970s would solve the problem, but the
all except sulfur dioxide have been reeval-
court sided with environmentalists who
SUL
uated, though scientists still question
pointed out other significant lead sources,
whether the standards are tough enough to
including smelters.
Sulfur dioxide ad nitrogen dioxide standards do
protect public health.
not take into aount their role in acid rain.
Pow
Although atmospheric levels of lead
major
have plummeted since 1970, specialists
duced
want the standard tightened to force cut-
Higl
backs in lead emitted by incinerators, old
coughi
cars and agricultural equipment that still
els car
run on leaded gasoline.
matics
Mos
standa
The most visible impact of the Clean Air Act
is that steel mill stacks like these in
cause
Alabama in 1972 no longer belch sooty
by util
pollutants 24 hours a day.
percen
emitte
the ma
The
the sul
time sit
tend th
asthma
short-te
But t
year t
victims
warrant
THIWASHINGTON POST
CLEAN ACT: A SCORECARD
OZONE
PARTICULATES
Ozone is fomed by the combination of
Most cities have eliminated the black
sunlight and pollutants-nitrogen di-
cloud over old industrial corridors caused
oxide and hyrocarbons-discharged by
by specks of dust, dirt and smoke by pav-
motor vehicle and industry.
ing roads and requiring smokestack filters.
So-called wad ozone-to distinguish
It took until 1987-seven years after
from the ozoe being depleted in the up-
Congress's deadline-for EPA to revise
per atmosphee-has proven to be the
most pollutant, especially in hot,
its particulate standard. The way the stan-
sunny weathe that intensifies the photo-
dard was structured, industry had an in-
chemical procss. When ozone binds with
centive to trap the big, heavier particles
particles put to the air by factories or
and to ignore the smaller, more toxic ones
traffic, it can ecome the yellowish smog
that burrow deeply into the lungs.
common to Ds Angeles or the "brown
The EPA developed a new standard
cloud" of Phoeix,
aimed at particles 10 microns and smaller.
Ozone's effets are similar to cigarette
Although opinions vary, some scientists
smoke. It stirulates certain cells in the
believe the so-called PM-10 standard is
airways, releaing substances that damage
too lenient to limit fine particles that are
cells in the lugs, causing stretching and
believed to attract hazardous metals, acids
inflamation our time. A sudden, heavy
blast of ozonecan decrease lung power
and carcinogenic volatile organic com-
Despite technological advances, the automobile is
and prompt dughing in healthy people
still the major source of air pollution.
pounds.
and cause asthatics to wheeze.
Even the PM-10 standard is far from
Not as muci was known about ozone 10
realization. The agency has granted a 15-
years ago, whn the EPA committed what
CARBON MONOXIDE
month extension to counties submitting
critics now reard as one of the nation's
plans to achieve the standard, which
costliest publichealth mistakes.
means that the earliest that industry will
is
The agency was under pressure from
An invisible gas produced by the incom-
control PM-10 is June 1992.
in
the oil industr to relax the ozone stan-
plete combustion of fossil fuels, primarily
ed
dard of .08 pats per million (ppm) set in
gasoline in motor vehicles, carbon mon-
n
1971. A stud of healthy volunteers ex-
oxide can have a number of ill effects. It
NITROGEN DIOXIDE
posed to ozonishowed no ill effects up to
displaces oxygen in the blood and keeps
15 ppm. So, he agency set a new stan-
the oxygen from reaching body tissues.
u-
dard of .12 pp, a 50 percent increase.
Reducing oxygen to the brain, the gas can
Another byproduct of burning fossil
te
Since that ime scientists have found
dull the mind and limit manual dexterity
fuels (chiefly gasoline in automobiles and
er
that much lover levels cause significant
and visual perception. It can trigger an-
coal in power plants), nitrogen dioxide
gh
loss of lung pwer in healthy people and
gina pains among cardiac patients who
works like ozone, constricting and inflam-
e
that the damge accumulates over long
have trouble getting oxygen to the heart.
ing the lungs, and possibly causing long-
id
periods. Astmatics, tested for the first
Carbon monoxide levels dropped sharp-
term damage. It also interferes with white
ts
time, have demonstrated even graver ef-
ly after cars with catalytic converters,
blood cells in the lung lining, lowering re-
fects from ozde-exposure.
which neutralize harmful gases, entered
sistance to infection.
t-
The Univesity of Arizona Medical
mass production in 1975. But the ever-in-
School has stdied 1,000 families in Tuc-
Emissions of nitrogen dioxide have in-
on
creasing number of automobiles has out-
son since 198, the nation's longest run-
creased slightly since 1970 and are ex-
e
weighed advantages gained from new
to
ning epidemiogical study of ozone. Asth-
pected to explode in coming years without
technology.
matic childre have shown significant
y
Today, carbon monoxide pollution is
tighter automobile emission controls. But
st
losses of lungpower at .055 ppm. At .08
epidemic, exceeding standards in 60 met-
the standard is so lenient that Los Angeles
es
ppm, they ben wheezing. At the current
ropolitan areas.
is the only place now in violation.
ed
standard of ppm, they suffer attacks.
The EPA reviewed its standard for car-
The EPA reviewed the standard in
The ozonestandard has not been re-
y
bon monoxide in 1985-five years after the
1985-five years behind schedule-and
worked since 1979, despite Congress's
deadline-and left it intact. But some ex-
affirmed it despite concerns raised about
d
mandate of fle-year reviews and the in-
perts believe the standard is not properly
dangers to asthmatics.
t.
creasing leve of the pollutant in more
structured to protect people with heart
Until now, nitrogen dioxide only has
places. An EA review is expected to be
problems from bursts of the pollutant.
finished this var.
been regulated for its direct health dan-
e
gers. In setting standards, the EPA has
e
SULFUR DIOXIDE
not considered the role of the pollutant as
0
the key ingredient in the formation of
S,
Sulfur dioxide ad nitrogen dioxide standards do
ozone.
not take into acount their role in acid rain.
Power plants and oil refineries are the
Nor has the standard been adjusted to
d
major sources of this invisible gas pro-
curb nitrogen dioxide's role in acid rain. It
S
duced by the burning of fossil fuel.
is the source of one-third of the acid rain
t-
High levels of sulfur dioxide can cause
d
on the East Coast and two-thirds of the
coughing among healthy people. Low lev-
els can trigger attacks in exercising asth-
acidic particle fallout in the West.
matics and allergy victims.
Most cities are in compliance with the
HAZARDOUS
standard for sulfur dioxide, largely be-
cause of sulfur-removing devices installed
POLLUTANTS
by utilities. Emissions have declined 28
percent since 1970, but sulfur dioxide
emitted by power plants in the Midwest is
Hazardous pollutants make up the fam-
the main cause of acid rain in the East.
ily of chemicals that can cause serious, ir-
The EPA is in the process of reviewing
reversible illness, such as cancer and neu-
the sulfur dioxide standard for the first
rological damage.
time since it was set in 1971. Critics con-
Since 1970, the EPA has set emission
tend that the standard does not protect
standards for just seven of the hazardous
asthmatics and allergy sufferers from
pollutants-2 percent of the 329 sub-
short-term bursts of the pollutant.
stances that the agency lists as hazardous.
But the agency decided tentatively last
And only selected sources of the seven
year that the number of potential
regulated pollutants are controlled.
victims-300,000 people-is too small to
The seven are asbestos, benzene, be-
warrant adoption of a short-term stan-
ryllium, cadmium, mercury, radionuclides
Of
HORIZONS
OUR DIRTY AIR
Trees and ponds are dying, and many American cities are
choked by a lung-searing, eye-blearing haze. But for the first
time in a decade, there's hope for a tough new law
early 20 years after Congress de-
mountain of unfinished business. It bare-
N
everyday products. After more than a
cided to "protect and enhance"
ly mentioned acid rain. Its strictures
decade of legislative stalemate, powerful
the nation's air quality, Ameri-
made it almost impossible for the U.S.
new political players are finally putting
cans are still spewing filth into
Environmental Protection Agency to
air quality back at the top of the agenda.
the skies. Noxious gases produced by
clamp down on growing emissions of
Robert Byrd of West Virginia, which
huge industrial smokestacks are poison-
toxic chemicals. It left a large part of the
produces the kind of high-sulfur coal that
ing the lakes, streams and forests of the
responsibility for meeting health stan-
helps acidify Eastern rains, has yielded to
North and Southeast. Industry belches
dards to the states, which have missed
a new Senate majority leader, George
billions of pounds of toxic chemicals into
one deadline after another since the act
Mitchell, from the acid-polluted state of
the atmosphere every year. In car-choked
was passed. "The great dirty secret is
Maine. Ronald Reagan, whose adminis-
metropolitan areas, last year's levels of
that, except in auto emissions, we
tration questioned the need for any new
ozone, the poisonous form of oxygen that
haven't tried very hard on air pollution,"
action at all, has given way to self-pro-
is the chief component of urban smog,
says Richard Ayres, chairman of the
claimed First Environmentalist George
reached an all-time high. Some 140 mil-
National Clean Air Coalition.
Bush, who will soon produce clean-air
lion Americans, nearly 3 out of every 5
That may soon change. Things are SO
proposals of his own. Meanwhile, indus-
citizens, now live in areas that do not
bad in some areas that regional air-quality
try leaders who once opposed almost any
meet the health standards set by the
managers are considering drastic new
clean-air strictures have changed their
Clean Air Act of 1970.
measures: Trying to limit the number of
tune. Alarmed at the prospect of 50 sepa-
It is clear that the 1970 law, a delicate
cars families own, forcing manufacturers
rate sets of regulations, as states take
compromise among dozens of competing
to reformulate cosmetics and paints, out-
matters into their own hands, they now
economic and regional interests and be-
lawing gasoline-powered lawn mowers,
see the wisdom of cooperating in the
tween federal and state authority, left a
charcoal lighter fluids and a host of other
design of a federal umbrella law.
48
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, June 12, 1989
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
WINNING THROUGH INFLATION
WHITE HOUSE STRATEGY
percent or more this year. That would be
After months of sniping at the Federal
the sharpest jump since the 8.9 percent
Reserve Board for keeping interest rates
increase in 1981 and compares with 4.4
high for so long, the White House finally
percent in each of the last two years.
has revealed its game plan. The
Overseas, inflation is busting out all
administration is willing to accept the
over. It is up to the 7-to-8-percent range
worst inflation since 1981 to keep the
in Britain and 3 to 3.5 percent in West
economy expanding and rescue the President
Germany and Japan, where inflation had
from his budget-deficit quagmire.
been barely noticeable.
The disclosure came from Treasury
The outbreak, along with political
Secretary Nicholas Brady last week in a
unrest in Bonn and Tokyo, is pushing
speech to the Organization for Economic
foreign capital to the U.S., raising the
Cooperation and Development in Paris.
dollar's value. That, in turn, feeds
Listing five economic challenges facing
foreign inflation by hiking the prices of
the world, Brady put "solid, balanced
imports from America. The effort to
growth" first and placed "remaining
reverse the greenback's rise through
vigilant against inflation" last.
central-bank selling of dollars in the
That ranking of priorities was a
currency markets has failed. And, says
diplomatic warning to the other major
Fred Bergsten, head of the Institute for
industrialized nations not to go too far
International Economics in Washington,
in raising interest rates to combat
policy synchronization among the major
inflation. Last month, Great Britain and
industrial powers "has been out to lunch."
Japan raised their key interest rates for
the first time in a decade. Switzerland
COOLER HEADS AT THE FED
also increased its rates.
The Fed is not likely to heed the White
There is no need, Brady cautioned the
House's call for easier money until it
OECD members, to risk "a premature end to
gets clear evidence that the economy is,
an expansion that has served us all so
in fact, slowing down, and price increases
well." " The West Germans apparently got the
are cooling off.
message. Despite expectations, the
That evidence may have come last week.
Bundesbank did not join the rate increase.
The government reported that job growth,
Now, Brady is waiting to see if his own
101,000 in May, was at its lowest level in
country's money managers, led by Fed chief
more than three years. Unemployment dipped
Alan Greenspan, are paying attention to
one tenth of a percentage point to 5.2
the President's priorities. Although U.S.
percent last month. "The jobs picture was
interest rates have eased a bit this
weak," says David Wyss, chief economist at
spring, the White House wants further
Data Resources Inc., a Lexington, Mass.,
downward movement. Unless that happens
consulting firm. If the Fed shares that
soon, the Bush team fears a recession may
interpretation, it could decide to lower
occur. Only by assuming continued economic
interest rates soon.
growth was the President able to reach a
budget accord with Congress in April
ALL FALL DOWN
without reneging on his promise not to
The Fed board has been split for a while.
raise taxes. "They're scared," says Mickey
Some members are pushing for a drop in
Levy, chief economist for Fidelity Bank in
rates. Others want to wait for reports on
Philadelphia. "A slump would increase the
May's inflation due out in mid-June.
budget deficit and make them look bad."
Whenever the move comes, it seems clear
that interest rates are heading downward.
BUSTING OUT ALL OVER
By year-end, rates could be as much as a
The cost of saving Bush's face on the
full percentage point lower than today's.
budget, however, would be acceptance of
The question is: Will they fall because
rising inflation here and abroad. In the
the Fed has successfully broken the
U.S., retail prices rose at a 6.6 percent
inflation spiral or because the economy is
annual rate through April.
tumbling into recession? It is the latter
The Fed's tight-money policy should slow
that worries George Bush.
inflation in the months ahead, but most
analysts still see prices climbing by 5
by Monroe W. Karmin
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, June 12, 1989
47
Suddenly, the question is not whether
The main source of both NOx and hy-
those extra miles, also sit idling in traf-
there will be a bill, but just what, exact-
drocarbons is motor vehicles, which is
fic jams for many more hours than did
ly, the Clean Air Act of 1990 will con-
why sunny, gridlocked cities like Los
their predecessors.
tain. There's no escaping the political
Angeles and Mexico City are particular-
The complex chemistry of smog can
and economic battles that will be fought
ly at risk. But ozone observes no bor-
play some befuddling tricks on efforts to
along the way. At present, according to
ders. Typically, it builds up in a large
reduce ozone. In certain circumstances,
EPA estimates, the United States is
stagnant air mass above a city, then
cutting back emissions of NOx can actu-
spending about $30 billion a year to con-
drifts downwind. Thus, northern New
ally increase the amount of ozone
trol air pollution; the tougher measures
England is often treated to pollution that
formed in smog. When America cracked
now being considered could more than
originates as far away as Baltimore. Last
down on the use of chlorofluorocarbons
double that figure. Fierce arguments are
summer, rangers in Maine's Acadia Na-
as spray-can propellants because the
already under way over which cleanup
tional Park recorded ozone levels SO
CFC's attack the stratospheric ozone
benefits are worth such costs, and over
high that they would have triggered a
layer that shields the earth from exces-
who, precisely, is to pay. Midwestern
smog alert in Los Angeles, smog capital
sive solar radiation, manufacturers re-
utility customers, for instance, probably
of the nation.
placed CFC's with propellants like bu-
cannot afford the entire cost of cleaning
Nationwide, 1988 ozone levels were
tane. But butane, it turns out, is a
up regional power plants. One proposed
the decade's highest, and for many cities
volatile organic compound; it contrib-
solution is a national users' fee that
they were the worst ever recorded. Fully
utes to the buildup of the undesirable
would spread the cost among all 50
94 urban areas violated the Clean Air
ozone-smog-at ground level.
states. But would voters in Wyoming, a
Act's standards. More than 20 were
Toxics. The Clean Air Act of 1970
producer of low-sulfur coal, be willing to
first-time offenders. And after 19 years
ordered the EPA to protect public
chip in to help clean up Ohio plants so
of trying to break the ozone curse, the
health from the bewildering, and grow-
that they can burn high-sulfur coal from
highest ozone levels were, nonetheless,
ing, assortment of toxic substances re-
the East?
depressingly predictable: Southern Cali-
leased into the atmosphere by manufac-
Whatever bill finally emerges from the
fornia, New York City, Houston and
turers. The agency was supposed to
coming months of political horse-trading
Chicago.
evaluate the health hazards posed by
is almost certain to focus on three criti-
Cutting ozone levels has proven far
each one, then set rules to control it.
cal subjects:
more difficult than anyone at first antic-
That chemical-by-chemical approach,
Ozone. Urban smog is made up of doz-
ipated. True, new cars emit 90 percent
however, has proven hopelessly un-
ens of ingredients, including carbon
fewer hydrocarbons and 75 percent less
wieldy. The evaluation studies take time
monoxide, particulates such as dirt, soot
carbon monoxide than did those of the
and money, and expenditures of both are
and dust, and ozone, a highly reactive
early 1970s. But at the same time, the
compounded by the endless legal chal-
gas that is cooked up in the troposphere
national vehicle fleet is nearly twice as
lenges mounted by producers of the
when sun shines on a mix of nitrogen
big as it was two decades ago. Cars to-
chemicals. Nineteen years after the act
oxides (NOx), hydrocarbons and other
day are traveling more miles per year.
was passed, the EPA has issued regula-
volatile organic compounds (VOC's).
And all those automobiles, traveling all
tions for only seven of the hundreds of
CANIE EYEA
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, June 1989
49
HORIZONS
THE NEWEST HEALTH
HAZARD: BREATHING
Where
it hurts
The best advice is to cut back
on strenuous activity when
the smog rolls in
2
W
hen smog settles into the Los
Angeles basin, Shirley Levy
slows down. Instead of showing
AIR
condominiums, shopping or meeting
3
friends for lunch, she stays at home,
reading or working quietly at her desk.
1
On really hazy days, she wraps a scarf
around her nose and mouth. "I get this
tight feeling across my chest," she ex-
AIR
plains. "Every movement feels like I'm
climbing stairs with a 50-pound weight
1
on my back."
Levy is one of the 140 million Ameri-
cans-about 60 percent of the popula-
tion-who live in areas where the air is
unhealthy at least part of the time. Be-
1
cause she has asthma and emphysema,
she suffers more than most when the air
quality drops. But dirty air isn't just a
hazard for people with weak lungs or a
damaged heart. It harms everyone who
inhales it, though the impact is often
subtle and cumulative. A jogger notices
that on smoggy days she tires quickly, or
a construction worker realizes that he's
catching an alarming number of colds.
Faced with these symptoms, people of-
ten put the blame on stress, late nights
4
or a fast-food diet. Increasingly, they
should take a hard look at the air they
breathe as well.
DIAGRAM BY GARY VISGAITIS FOR USN&WR
Many of the pollutants that people
inhale are cleared out of the nose and
single breath. The deficiency can last up
tration and motor coordination. It is es-
throat well before they reach the lungs.
to a week. While people at rest can toler-
pecially hazardous to developing fetuses,
Tiny particles, such as soot, are trapped
ate relatively high levels of ozone without
since the fetal brain needs a lot of oxy-
on fine hairs lining the nasal passages and
ill effects, many experts suspect that regu-
gen, and to people with heart disease,
trachea, and some gases, such as sulfur
lar doses of smog may permanently scar
whose oxygen-carrying circulatory sys-
dioxide, are absorbed largely in the upper
the lungs. "As with cigarette smoke, ev-
tems already are compromised.
airways. But the body has no front-line
ery exposure may do a little damage,"
The same acids that kill off fish in
defenses against ozone, a poisonous form
says New York University Medical Cen-
Eastern lakes and streams also harm
of oxygen that is the most harmful com-
ter Prof. Morton Lippmann. Enough
people. Created in the atmosphere from
ponent of the brownish haze choking
scarring, warns Philip Landrigan, of the
nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide, acid
metropolitan areas. Ozone irritates and
American Academy of Pediatrics, and
aerosols slip easily past the body's de-
inflames delicate pulmonary membranes,
you are a "pulmonary cripple by the time
fenses deep into the lungs where they
producing a host of symptoms, including
you hit your 50s or 60s."
inflame tissues. Like ozone, acid aerosols
chest pains, coughing and throat irrita-
The other major poison in smog is
depress pulmonary function and may
tion. The corrosive chemical also lowers
carbon monoxide. It is emitted primarily
permanently scar the lungs.
the lungs' defenses against infection and
by cars, and can build up to dangerous
The jury is still out on whether the
may trigger asthma attacks.
levels along major urban thoroughfares.
many toxic chemicals dumped into the
Permanent damage. Most disturbing,
This colorless, odorless gas robs the
air by industrial processes pose a major
however, is the way ozone whittles away
body's tissues and organs of life-sustain-
threat to public health. Scientists don't
an individual's lung capacity. Scientists
ing oxygen; when inhaled, it binds with
yet know how many people are exposed
find that after a person exercises outdoors
the red blood cells that otherwise would
to which chemicals and at what doses.
in ozone-filled air, lung inflammation re-
transport oxygen around the body. Car-
The U.S. is dotted with toxic "hot spots,"
duces the amount of air he can inhale in a
bon-monoxide pollution impairs concen-
like Front Royal, Va., and Lemoyne,
50
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, June 12, 1989
COVER STORY
chemicals considered dangerous to hu-
the soil work to neutralize or dilute the
man health.
acidity before it can do any harm.
Meanwhile, toxic chemicals may be a
The problem is that industrial soci-
Nose, Throat, Lungs
far worse problem than Congress real-
ety's inexorably growing use of cheap,
1
Ozone, when inhaled, reduces
ized in 1970. Last April, a House sub-
plentiful coal to produce electric power
the lung's ability to clear out
committee released the results of the
has overloaded nature's cleansing cycle.
infectious agents and toxins and can
first national survey of toxic chemicals.
As a result, one fifth of the lakes in New
aggravate asthma.
The survey-nicknamed "Bhopal's
York's Adirondack Mountains have
Eyes
baby" because it was ordered after the
grown too acidic to support fish, and
2
Other chemicals formed in smog,
1984 chemical disaster at Union Car-
half the streams in the mid-Atlantic
especially PAN, or peroxyacetyl
bide's plant in Bhopal, India-showed
nitrate, irritate the eyes.
coastal states are endangered. Spruces,
Brain
that during 1987 industry released 2.7
maples and pines in California and Ap-
Inhalation of carbon monoxide
billion pounds of toxics, some of them
palachia absorb the acids through nee-
3
can impair motor coordination and
known carcinogens, into the air. "The
dles, leaves and roots, and are now suf-
concentration, perhaps by reducing
magnitude of the problem far exceeds
fering from what the Germans poetically
oxygen supply to brain.
our worst fears," said California Demo-
call Waldsterben, forest death. Buildings
Heart
crat Henry Waxman, chairman of the
and monuments in the Midwest and
4
Carbon monoxide disrupts the
subcommittee. The real magnitude may
Northeast, especially structures made of
delivery of oxygen to the body by
be even greater than the study suggested.
marble, are being steadily eaten away.
binding with red blood cells. Low
blood-oxygen levels aggravate angina
The survey did not cover chemicals re-
Back in 1970, acid rain was not an
(chest pains).
leased from cars, trucks and toxic-waste
issue. Few scientists, let alone politi-
dumps, by companies that used less than
cians, realized how much damage it
Smog index
10,000 pounds of chemicals during the
could do. The old act focused on sulfur
Most metro areas issue air-pollution
year or by thousands upon thousands of
dioxide as a health hazard, whose effects
alerts based on a numerical scale that
service businesses, such as dry cleaners
were mostly visible in the immediate
reflects the concentration of the most
and gas stations, which spew out toxics
neighborhood of the worst SO₂ offend-
unhealthful pollutant present in the air
as a matter of course.
ers, power plants burning high-sulfur
0-
51-
101-
200-
300
To improve toxics regulation, the EPA
coal. The law placed strict limits on the
50
100
199
299
plus
wants any new law to permit an industry-
amount of sulfur dioxide that could be
Good
Hazardous
by-industry approach to the problem, in-
emitted by any plant built after 1972.
Moderate
Elderly and
stead of the old chemical-by-chemical
New plants either had to install flue-gas
Unhealthful
persons with
system. First, the EPA would rank indus-
desulfurization gear, "scrubbers," or
those diseases
Persons with heart or
tries according to the amount of toxics
burn low-sulfur coal; plants built before
should stay
respiratory ailments
indoors and
they produce; the chemical industry,
1972 were grandfathered. The EPA set
should reduce
avoid physical
smelting, pesticide production, petroleum
standards governing the concentration
physical exertion
exertion.
refining and tire manufacturing would fall
of sulfur and nitrogen near the Midwest-
Very unhealthful
Everyone should
high on the list. Then, the EPA would
ern plants that produced them, "so
Elderly and persons with avoid
outdoor
evaluate the cost of cleanup technologies
much crud per cubic meter of air," in
heart or lung disease
activity
available to each industry, and order vari-
the words of David Bassett, one of the
should stay indoors
ous toxic-producing sites to use them.
agency's acid-rain experts.
Refineries, for instance, might be ordered
The result was not what environmen-
to light flares on their smokestacks to
talists expected. Until the EPA finally
Ala.; though in the average community,
burn off organic chemicals. Smelters
cracked down on the practice, industry
the concentrations of airborne toxics
might have to install fabric filters, much
built taller smokestacks that efficiently
from industry are vanishingly small. In
like lint traps in clothes dryers, on stacks
reduced the local concentration of sulfur
fact, most of the toxics that people inhale
to trap cadmium and other particulate
and nitrogen oxides to meet the EPA's
come from cigarette smoke and house-
metals dangerous to public health.
standards and ended up wafting the crud
hold chemicals. The EPA estimates that
Acid pollution. Ironically, it is the at-
toward the Northeastern forests. To make
toxics are responsible for 2,000 excess
mosphere's own self-cleaning mecha-
matters worse, the dirty old plants are
cancer deaths a year, but right now that
nism that produces the pollution known
lasting 50 to 60 years, instead of being
number isn't much more reliable than a
as acid rain. Sulfur dioxide and nitrogen
retired to make room for clean burners.
wild guess. "There's cause for enlight-
oxides are released into the earth's atmo-
Environmentalists are now demand-
ened concern, but it doesn't do any good
sphere by a variety of natural processes,
ing fast and unequivocal action, and that
to get hysterical," says Rogene Hender-
including volcanic eruptions and light-
means forcing even the long-lived old
son, senior scientist at the Lovelace Inha-
ning strikes, and by an increasing num-
plants to install scrubbers. Utilities
lation Toxicology Research Institute in
ber of human activities, especially the
would prefer to stall as long as possible.
Albuquerque, N.M.
burning of fossil fuels. Sunlight causes a
And no wonder. One recent analysis
Even with new legislation, the task of
series of chemical reactions that trans-
shows that every year of delay in clean-
cleaning up the air will not be accom-
form these gases into sulfuric and nitric
ing up old plants has saved industry as
plished overnight. In the meantime,
acids. Most of the acid molecules end up
much as $5 billion. The utilities' current
Shirley Levy's prescription may make
in cloud droplets. They may remain sus-
strategy is to argue that "clean coal"
the most sense: When the air is bad, try
pended for a while in cloud form; near
technologies now under development
not to breathe it.
Los Angeles, for instance, the fog some-
will provide the answers. If they are
times is as acidic as lemon juice. Eventu-
forced to retrofit all old plants with
by Betsy Carpenter
ally, however, the molecules are washed
scrubbers, industry spokesmen argue,
out of the air in rain or snow and fall
they will not be able to develop and
back to earth, where natural processes in
deploy plants that incorporate such ad-
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, June 12, 1989
51
HORIZONS
vanced schemes. One new technology
tailpipe standards. In addition, Waxman
burns pulverized coal together with
publishes a weekly newsletter, Clean Air
limestone to absorb the sulfur, cutting
sulfur-dioxide emissions. Another sys-
similar to a jet engine; the sulfur recov-
PETER RESEARCHERS
Facts, which he sends to every member
of the House.
tem heats coal to produce gas, which is
The laundry lobby. They can use the
then cleaned and burned in a gas turbine
help. Already, two-dozen clean-air bills
have been introduced on the Hill, and
ered from the gas cleansing is pure
lobbyists are hard at work trying to win
enough to be sold as a byproduct.
congressional hearts and minds. Some
If, despite these arguments, they are
are obvious players. The auto industry,
forced to clean up, utilities desperately
not surprisingly, is fighting against
want "freedom of choice." That means
tougher emissions standards, and mine
legislation that sets limits on emissions,
workers hope to protect the use of high-
but allows industry itself to choose the
sulfur Eastern coal. But this time round
cheapest course for meeting them. In
there are also some unfamiliar interests
some cases, that would mean installing
at work. Bakeries and laundries, for in-
scrubbers on old plants, a course both
stance, don't want to be forced to reduce
environmentalists and Eastern coal min-
Forest death. An evergreen in Vermont,
emissions of ozone-producing hydrocar-
ers approve. In others, it would be to
victim of acid rain from the Midwest
bons from fermenting yeast or evaporat-
burn low-sulfur coal from the West:
ing dry-cleaning fluids. Companies that
Fine with environmentalists but anathe-
California Congressman Henry Wax-
make cleanup equipment want to make
ma to the miners.
man, the environmentalists' champion
sure any new law requires the use of
It is conflicts and complications like
on Capitol Hill, is trying to change that.
their products or at least does not pre-
these that make the drafting of a new
For the last two months, he has been
clude it. Railway engineers are lobbying
law so difficult. "There aren't 15 people
holding weekly "clean-air classes" to
for required use of low-sulfur coal, which
in the Capitol who understand the tech-
help his colleagues and their staffs sort
would have to be shipped east by rail.
nical complexities," says Republican
through the issues. Recently, for exam-
Meanwhile, all sides await word from
Senator Alan Simpson, whose state of
ple, a class heard a debate between an
the White House. Bush's clean-air plan,
Wyoming, a big producer of low-sulfur
auto-company executive and a former
originally promised for late March, has
coal, has a large stake in the outcome.
EPA expert on the feasibility of tighter
been delayed by high-level skirmishing
USN&WR MAP BY DAVID S. MERRILL
Dayton
Jefferson
Glen Falls / Essex County
Dirt, coast to coast
Toledo
County
Poughkeepsie
Kennebec County
Muskegon
Columbus
Scranton
Hartford
Lincoln County
Sixty percent of the U.S. pop-
Grand
Detroit
Reading
Springfield
Knox County
ulation lives in cities that violate
Rapids
Cleveland
Hancock County
federal smog standards; many
Average
Kewaunee
Lancaster
Portland
number of days
other areas of the country are
County
Monroe
per year in
York County
Buffalo
affected by acid rain
2
violation of
5
Portsmouth
Portland
Youngstown
or toxic and cancer-
ozone
Counties that
Canton
Manchester
causing chemicals
standard
emit more
Worcester
than 20
Sheboygan
Boston
emitted by industrial
New violators
Milwaukee
Erie
8
million lb.
Sharon
New Bedford
processes
(no number of
of toxic air
Chicago
14
days available)
pollutants
Union
2
Providence
Cook
Stockton
Sacramento
Tooele
Lafayette
Pittsburgh
New York
San Francisco
10
per year
Indianapolis
2
Sussex County
16 Modesto
Salt
Cincinnati
+
Fresno
Allentown
Lake
St. Louis
Huntington
Charleston
1
31
Kings County
12
Visalia
Atlantic City
City
Denver
Bakersfield
35
Parkersburg
Kansas
Greenbrier County
Philadelphia
Louisville
Santa Barbara
2
City
Lexington
Sullivan
2
Kent County
144 Los Angeles
Nashville
Knoxville
Tulsa 1
2
Memphis
14
Harrisburg
Angeles
Birmingham
Baltimore
San Diego 13
2
Phoenix
Atlanta
Dallas-Fort Worth
Montgomery
Norfolk
2
Washington
9
Ector
Iberville
Mobile
2
El Paso
Beaumont
Parish
Richmond
Houston
2
Baton Rouge
Kenai-Cook Inlet
2
Raleigh-
19
Durham
Lake Charles
Altoona
Harris
Brazor
2
Johnstown
Jacksonville
Fayetteville
Jefferson
Tampa
Greensboro
Charlotte
Greenville /
Miami
Cherokee County
Where the acid falls
Acidity of rainfall, pH units
Rainfall with a pH reading
4.1-4.2
4.3-4.4
4.5-4.6
of 5 or below is considered
USN&WR-Basic data:
Environmental
severe, 4.2 the most severe
4.7-4.8
4.9-5.0
5.1-5.7
Protection Agency
52
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, June 12, 1989
COVER STORY
between the EPA, which wants tougher
regulations, and the Office of Manage-
ment and Budget, which is wary of the
costs. The most contentious questions
include how many power plants in the
TED SPIEGEL-BLACK STAR
Midwest and Southeast to target for
acid-rain cleanup. Is it more cost-effec-
tive to require lots of plants to clean up a
little, or to force a few plants to cut
emissions by a lot? In addition, the EPA
insists on the need for heavy use of alter-
native fuels for vehicles, a policy the
Energy Department resists.
Bush will choose from a menu of op-
tions prepared by his advisers, and the
White House will try to translate the
President's choices into "legislative lan-
guage" as early as this week. Then the
Smog alert. A scientist studies the effects of ozone on orange trees in Riverside, Calif.,
congressional debate will get under way
where pollution is so bad that oranges are no longer grown commercially
in earnest. By next spring, Bush may
well have a tough new clean-air measure
chemicals under control, the new law
John Dingell, it will almost surely slap
to sign. To stop acid rain, the new legis-
may extend the EPA's regulatory reach
tougher emissions standards on automo-
lation is likely to require reductions in
to include not just major offenders like
biles and perhaps require increased use
sulfur-dioxide emissions of 5 million
chemical plants and refineries but also
of nongasoline fuels like methanol, espe-
tons a year by the mid-1990s, 10 million
gasoline stations and dry cleaners. To
cially in the nation's most polluted areas.
tons a year by 2000. It will probably
attack ozone levels, the new legislation
The future of the nation, in fact, is
require scrubbers for some of the dirtiest
will include both new deadlines for com-
beginning to look a lot like California.
old plants but permit others to do some
pliance and a series of new standards
Faced with the worst air quality in the
fuel switching, a compromise fairly pal-
governing small polluters. Despite fero-
country in the Los Angeles air basin,
atable to all concerned. To get toxic
cious opposition by Michigan Democrat
that state long ago took many of the
USN&WR DIAGRAM BY MATT ZANG
Transformations in the air
Smog. Nitrogen oxides (NOx, produced by combustion processes)
Acid rain. NOx and sulfur oxides (SOx), most of it
combine with volatile organic chemicals (VOC's, which include gasoline
produced by power plants burning sulfur-containing
vapor, paint thinners, dry-cleaning fluid and many other industrial
coal, react with water vapor and other naturally
chemicals) in the presence of sunlight to form ozone, an irritating
occurring chemicals higher in the atmosphere to form
chemical that is the chief component of smog. Carbon monoxide (CO)
acids that fall to earth as acid rain.
from combustion adds to the toxic brew.
Sunlight
Water vapor
Ozone
Smog
Acid
rain
Sulfuric acid
Nitric acid
Major sources of air pollutants:
(percentage of total emissions)
VOC's
24%
12%
11%
Vehicles
Painting/
Wood-burning
coating
stoves
66%
SOx
Electric
GAUDD
utilities
co
54%
11%
10%
35%
34%
NOx
Vehicles
Forest
Wood-burning
Electric
Vehicles
fires
stoves
utilities
USN& WR-Basic data: Environmental Protection Agency
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, June 12, 1989
53
HORIZONS
steps now under discussion in Washing-
Tier I, required by 1993, would not re-
has to contemplate such strictures may
ton. If other urban areas had enforced
quire any new technology. It would, for
depend, in large part, on the coming
the same clean-air measures Los Angeles
instance, outlaw new drive-through fa-
debate in Washington. Waxman, for
has adopted already, says James Lents,
cilities to keep vehicles from idling in
one, is hopeful that this time the nation
executive officer of the South Coast Air
lines, promote van-pooling and charge
has the political will to do what re-
Quality Management District, which
families a premium to own more than
mained undone in 1970, perhaps to pre-
monitors L.A.-area pollution, Los Ange-
one car. Tier II, to be in place by the
clude the necessity for more Draconian
les itself-the victim of a geography that
turn of the century, would require signif-
measures next time around. He is push-
traps pollutants in abundant sunshine-
icant advances in technology and vigor-
ing to get a bill to the House floor be-
would be the only city in the country
ous regulatory intervention. Extensive
fore the end of the summer smog sea-
that is not in compliance with existing
cleanup of electric-power plants and oil
son. That, of course, is no accident. It
federal health standards.
refineries in the L.A. basin would be
was a 14-day Washington smog alert in
Now Southern California is planning
compelled, for example. Tier III, sched-
1970 that helped produce the original
to go even further. In March, the Los
uled for the year 2007, would require the
Clean Air Act.
Angeles air-quality authorities proposed
development of brand-new technology,
the most ambitious antipollution plan
such as electric cars.
by Merrill McLoughlin with Betsy Carpenter,
yet, to be put into effect in three tiers.
Whether the rest of the country ever
William J. Cook and Andy Plattner
LET THE LOBBYING
COMMENCE
KEVIN HORAN FOR USN&WR
Forget the environment-
the real battle's about jobs,
coal and politics as usual
F
or Democratic Congressman
Terry Bruce, clean air is a politi-
cal minefield. Cleaning up acid
rain will force the coal-burning utili-
ties in his Southern Illinois district to
reduce sulfur fumes, driving up elec-
tric rates and possibly eliminating lo-
cal coal-mining jobs. New restrictions
on auto emissions could squeeze the
largest industry in Bruce's district, a
General Motors foundry in Danville.
But Bruce cannot vigorously protect
Conflict of interest. Bruce visits a local coal-fired power plant
utilities, coal miners or auto workers
without drawing the wrath of the
er plants SO they could continue to
Environmentalists. At the University
University of Illinois environmental-
burn high-sulfur coal. The scrubbers
of Illinois, environmental activists
ists who helped put him in office.
would be paid for by a national elec-
helped Bruce defeat an incumbent
As a member of the committee writ-
tric tax. The miners tell Bruce to re-
Republican in 1984. He would like to
ing the new Clean Air Act, Bruce faces
mind his colleagues that federal in-
please them, but they want a bill that
the classic collision between America's
come taxes helped pay for the
would crack down on cars as well as
economic interests and the search for
Tennessee Valley Authority and the
acid rain. "We are seeing a surge of
cleaner air. His constituents offer a
Hoover Dam.
environmental awareness," says
sample of the battle to come:
Utility executives. If sulfur emissions
Clark Bullard, who directs the uni-
Coal miners. Don Baldwin, 41, runs
are to be cut, Richard Grant, environ-
versity's office of energy research.
the massive machine that rips coal
mental manager for Central Illinois
Bruce wants Congress to craft a
from the underground Amax, Inc.,
Public Service Company, wants the
delicate compromise that requires
mine, employer of 900. The coal fuels
freedom to burn low-sulfur coal, much
some scrubbers to help the coal min-
the 2,853-megawatt Gibson power
of it mined in the West. At one plant in
ers, gives some leeway to utilities to
station, which spews 306,000 tons of
Newton, there are two 545-megawatt
choose low-sulfur coal, protects auto
sulfur dioxide annually into the air.
boilers. One is fitted with a $121 mil-
workers and, to please the environ-
Baldwin believes his job is threatened
lion scrubber that costs $11 million a
mental crowd, spreads the economic
by a new clean-air law. But he also
year to run; the other burns lower-
pain to even small polluters such as
wants to help clean up acid rain. "I
sulfur coal and requires no scrubber.
bakeries and dry cleaners. But he is
want New Englanders to enjoy the
Grant is quick to remind Bruce that 15
painfully aware that a compromise
outdoors, but I want a job so I can
of Bruce's 18 counties are served by his
may displease everyone: "What they
enjoy the outdoors myself."
company: "The people in Southern
want, I can't deliver."
The miners' solution is to install
Illinois neither see the problem nor feel
expensive scrubbers on Midwest pow-
they should pay for it."
by Andy Plattner in Keensburg, III.
54
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, June 12, 1989
World
Reflection
Clean Clir act
224-3121 - Capital
Jack Heeny -
- Jack Heing 57 andrew Michael
pre Elleain
LAenivermal LA environment
-
Jim Wirth
Proj. 88 Fund -Kennedy school, Eno. Define
Republican
Dems
- Chaffe
Burchck - Eno Pub. works com
- Daunbarger
Baucus Enc Protection Subcommette
Gore
Byrd
Vested interest
Bro
Conservation
456-6218
343-1100 Interior
Cadillar Mountains
= Judy Hazel
Ozone level
Health about wes issued
-Clii quality technician BobGreene
air Quality office -Denver
Bob Houner (FIS) 327-2072
Ron Howner
Remote bland is where
it was Recorded
TO: Mark Lange
FROM: Rett Wallace
Good Quotes and stats from U.S. NEWS JUNE 12, 1989
-- 140 million Americans, nearly 3 out of 5, now live in areas
that do not meet the health standards set by the Clean Air Act of
1970.
-- Last summer, rangers in Maine's Acadia National Park recorded
ozone levels so high they would have triggered a smog alert in
Los Angeles, smog capital of the nation.
-- The same acids that kill of fish in Eastern lakes and streams
harm people.
-- Ironically, it is the atmosphere's own self-cleaning mechanism
that produces the pollution known as acid rain.
-- Near Los Angeles, the fog sometimes is as acidic as Lemon
juice.
-- The problem is that industrial society's inexorably growing
use of cheap, plentiful coal to produce electric power has
overloaded nature's cleansing cycle. As a result, one fifth of
the lakes in New York's Adirondack Mountains have grown too
acidic to support fish, and half the streams in the mid-Atlantic
coastal states are endangered. Spruces, Maples and Pines in
California and Appalachia absorb the acids through the needles,
leaves and roots, and are now suffering from what the Germans
poetically call Waldsterben, forest death.
-- Delay of instalation of scrubbers (desulfurization gear) in
coal burning plants saves the industry as much as $5 billion a
year.
-- If other urban areas had enforced the same clean-air measures
Los Angeles has adopted already,
Los Angeles itself --
the victim of a geography that traps pollutants in abundant
sunshine -- would be the only city in the country that is not in
compliance with the existing Federal health standards.
Quotes and Stats for Clean Air- Time Magazine
For man has reached a point in his evolution where he has
the power to affect, for better or worse, the present and future
state of the planet.
Like the evil genies that flew from Pandora's box,
technological advances have provided the means for upsetting
nature's equilibrium, that intricate set of biology, physical and
chemical interactions that make up the web of life.
Starting at the dawn of the Industrial Revolution,
smokestacks have disgorged noxious gases into the atmosphere,
factories have dumped toxic wastes into rivers and streams,
automobiles have guzzles irreplaceable fossil fuels and fouled
the air with their detritus.
This year the earth spoke, like God warning Noah of the
deluge. Its message was loud and clear, and suddenly people began
to listen, to ponder the portents the message held.
In the U.S., a three month drought baked the soil from California
to Georgia, reducing the country grain harvest by 31% and killing
thousands of head of livestock. A stubborn seven-week heatwave
drove temperatures above 100 degrees F across much of the country
raising fears that the dreaded "greenhouse effect"- global
warming as a result of the buildup of carbon dioxide and other
gases in the atmosphere- might already be under way.
Perhaps most ominous of all, the destruction of the tropical
forests, home to at least half the earth's plant and animal
species, continued at a rate equal to one football field a
second.
Time has designated Endangered Earth as Planet of the Year
for 1988.
According to computer projections, the accumulation of CO2
in the atmosphere could drive up the earth's planet temperature 3
degrees F to 9 degrees F by the middle of the next century. That
could cause the oceans to rise several feet, flooding coastal
areas and ruining huge tracts of farmland through salinization.
Changing weather patterns could make huge areas infertile or
uninhabitable, touching off refugee movements unprecedented in
history.
Donald Marquis' archy and mehitabel:" is making deserts
of the earth/it won't be ling now/before man will have used it
up/so that nothing but ants/and centipedes and scorpions/can find
a living on it.
The wholesale burning and cutting of forests in Brazil and
other countries, as one major example, are destroying
irreplaceable species every day.
The use of pesticides has increases crop yields but polluted
water supplies. The invention of automobiles and jet planes has
revolutionized travel but sullied the atmosphere.
Photos of the earth from space prompted geologist Preston
Cloud to write, "Mother Earth will never seem the same again. No
more can thinking people take this little planet as an infinite
theater of action and provider of resources for man, yielding new
largesse to every demand without limit."
"All nations are tied together as to their common fate,' "
observes Peter Raven, director of the Missouri Botanical Garden.
"We are all facing a common problem, which is, How are we going
to keep this single resource we have, namely the world, viable?"
"We do not have generations, we only have years, in which to
attempt to turn things around, warns Lester brown, president of
the Washington-based Worldwatch Institute.
Peter Raven, director of the Missouri Botanical Garden,
predicts that during the next three decades man will drive an
average of 100 species to extinction every day. Extinction is
part of evolution, but the present rate is at least 1000 times
the pace that has prevailed since prehistory.
Madagascar, [rain forest] where more than 90% of the original
vegetation has disappeared; the monsoon forests of the Himalayan
foothills that are being denuded by villagers in search of
firewood, building materials and arable land; New Caledonia, 83%
of whose plants occur nowhere else; the eastern slope of the
Andes, as well as forests in East Africa, peninsula Malaysia,
northeast Australia and along the Atlantic coast of Brazil.
Since less that 5% of the world's tropical forests receive
any protection, the stage is set for mass extinctions. Many
plants and animals are doomed no matter what measures are taken.
Wiping out forests may make developing nations momentarily
richer, but it is bound to produce a poorer future.
Deforestation contributes tot eh recent droughts in Africa
and the devastating mud slides in Rio de Janeiro last year. In
Costa Rica topsoil eroded from bald hills has greatly shortened
life from an expensive hydroelectric dam.
In Brazil, which has some 500 conservation organizations,
environmentalist Jose Pedro de Oliveira Costa organized a
coalition of legislators, conservationists, industrialists and
media barons to stir public support to preserve Brazil's
remaining forests. "The threats to the forests remain, said
Costa, "but now at least there is a network in place to scream
when a threat arises.
Development should be sustainable, meaning that it should
use up resources no faster than they can be regenerated by
nature. Governments and private firms should organize projects to
show that forests can be used without being obliterated. If trees
are cut selectively, forests can yield profits and survive to
produce more money in the future.
Man must abandon the belief that the natural order is mere
stuff to be managed and domesticated, and accept that humans,
like other creatures, depend on a web of life that must be
disturbed as little as possible.
Until recently the prophets of global warming garnered about
as much attention as the religions zealots who insist that
Armageddon is near.
James Hansen-Head of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space
Studies said, "It is time to stop waffing so much. The evidence
is pretty strong that the greenhouse effect is here."
The heat waves, droughts, floods, and hurricanes may be
previews of what could happen with ever increasing frequency if
the atmosphere warms 3 degrees to 8 degrees by the middle of the
next century, as some scientists predict.
No one disputes the fact that the amount of CO2 in the
atmosphere has risen and continues to increase rapidly and that
the human race is thus conducting a dangerous experiment on an
unprecedented scale.
Thomas Lovejoy of the Smithsonian Institute said, "There will
be no winners in this game of ecological chairs, for it will be
fundamentally disruptive and destabilizing, and we can anticipate
hordes of environmental refugees dwarfing the numbers of the Dust
Bowl era or the boat people.'
Humanity's contribution to the greenhouse effect comes from
so many basic activities that man cannot realistically expect to
stop the process, only slow it down.
When oil prices soured in the 1970's, industries responded
by becoming much more energy efficient. But in the plunge of the
price of oil from $36 bbl. in 1982 to less that $12 bbl. has
cooled the enthusiasm for conservation. Governments must rekindle
that interest and boost energy saving by setting or raising
minimum efficiency standards for automobiles, appliances and
other machinery.
As societ industrialized, coal-burning factories began
releasing CO2 faster than plants and oceans, which absorb the
gas, could handle it.
From "The Greening of the U.S.S.R." (Time magazine, 1/2/89)
The industrial city of Nizhni Tagil, some 700 miles east of
Moscow, is sometimes wrapped in clouds of gaseous wastes so thick
and toxic that drivers must turn on their headlights at noon and
children walking home from school get skin rashes.
Every year 700,000 tons of toxic substances are spewed into
the city's air. Not only Nizhni Tagil but more than 100 other
major cities, including Moscow, also have air-pollution levels
ten times as high as the acceptable standards set by the Soviets.
Citizens worried about the environment are demonstrating by
the thousands and contributing to political unrest in the Baltic
States. Elsewhere, budding environmental groups have even
sponsored candidates for city elections.
"In this restructuring," said Nicholas Robinson, a Pace
University professor and an expert on the Soviet environment,
"the Communist Party Central Committeee has decided that, after
disarmament, environmental protection is the No.1 world issue. "
Said President Mikhail Gorbachev in his speech this month to
the U.N. General Assemly: "International economic security is
inconceivable unless related not only to disarmament but also to
the elimination of the threat to the world's environment."
Clouds of yellowish smoke belching from the factory's
smokestacks have settled over 770 sq. miles of Siberian
wilderness and have killed an estimated 86.000 fir trees.
Said Marshall Goldman, associate director of the Russian
Research Center at Harvard University: "In almost every republic
in which there is a movement for independence of the assertion of
political rights, it has been led by an environmental movement." If
TO: MARK
FROM: RETT
CARS
1970
80 million
1978
103 million
1989
124 million
Change between 1970 and 1989: 1.55 or 55%
Change between 1978 and 1989: 1.20 or 20%
VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED
1970
797 billion
1978
995 billion
1989
1.203 trillion
Change between 1970 and 1989: 1.51 or 51%
Change between 1978 and 1989: 1.21 or 21%
Source: Don Zinger E.P.A.
382-7647
TO: MARK
FROM: RETT
RE:
CLEAN AIR
SENATORS
Chafee, John
Rhode Island (R)
Burdick, Quentin
North Dakota (D)
Baucus, Max
Montana (D)
Lautenberg, Frank
New Jersey (D)
Mitchell, George
Maine (D)
Simpson, Al
Wyoming (D)
REPRESENTATIVES
Lent, Norman
New York (R) and
Madigan, Edward
Illinois (R)
Boehlert, Sherwood
New York (R) and
Dingell, John
Michigan (D)
Waxman, Henry
California (D)
-- I will check with Legislative Affairs on the pairs of
Representatives.
TO: MARK
FROM: RETT
CARS
1970
80 million
1978
103 million
1989
124 million
Change between 1970 and 1989: 1.55 or 55%
Change between 1978 and 1989: 1.20 or 20%
VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED
1970
797 billion
1978
995 billion
1989
1.203 trillion
Change between 1970 and 1989: 1.51 or 51%
Change between 1978 and 1989: 1.21 or 21%
Source: Don Zinger E.P.A.
382-7647
(Lange/Wallace)
June 1, 1989
10:30 a.m.
[CLEANAIR.DOC]
PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS:
CLEAN AIR ACT ANNOUNCEMENT
[EAST ROOM]
THURSDAY, JUNE 8, 1989
[TIME]
There is nothing natural about the summer haze that hangs
over the cities of America. In a few weeks, all you'll have to
do is look out the window. Or turn on the radio. You'll hear
that older people shouldn't venture out. That kids shouldn't go
outside to play.
Every American has the right to breathe clean air. As
President I will personally guarantee that right: for this
generation, and for generations to come.
For too long, our progress against air pollution has been
plagued by political stalemates. There have been improvements
since the Clean Air Act was first enacted. But our growth is
outpacing us. We must do more. Today, I'm asking Congress to
cooperate for clean air. It's time to break the gridlock.
We've put together a new Clean Air bill, with the benefit of
some of the best thinking on the Hill -- Senator X and Y,
Congressman A to Z -- and with the counsel of groups like the
Environmental Defense Fund, Project 88, A, B, and many others who
have worked with us.
One hundred million Americans now breathe unhealthy air.
But if Congress will act on the Clean Air reforms I'm offering
today, by 1992 here in Washington we won't hear those warnings on
the radio. By the year 2010, we won't hear them in Los Angeles,
either. And by the end of this century, every American, in every
city in America, will breathe clean air.
The reforms we seek make major pollution reductions, where
we most need them, first. Our approach has reasonable deadlines
for those who must comply. It has compelling sanctions for those
who don't. It accounts for continued growth and expansion. It
will be cost effective. But above all, it will be effective.
We're going to work from three fronts. First, we will
prevent as many as 1500 cancer deaths every year, by curbing
automotive and industrial air toxics -- making state-of-the-art
technology an everyday fact of doing business. People who live
near chemical and manufacturing plants will breathe easier,
2
knowing that the very best control technology we have is on those
plants.
Second, we will reduce the smog that has soured the air of
our cities by XX percent, by [date] -- at a cost of only one
percent added to each new car purchased. We have set, and will
enforce, targets -- but we're giving cities and states the
flexibility they need to design their own strategies.
[[ One fact, however, will be universal: I for one intend to
breathe clean, healthy air in every city in America -- as long as
I'm still breathing by the year 2000. ]]
Third, we will reduce by 10 million tons the sulfur dioxide
emissions that cause acid rain -- cutting them in half by the
year 2000. This will allow us to recover hundreds of lakes, and
thousands of miles of streams in the Northeast, Mideast, and in
eastern Canada. It will reduce the acidity of mountain clouds
that seem to be damaging trees and soil in these areas.
We can afford it. To the cost of electricity, an acid rain
control program will add just over a penny on the dollar in the
1990s -- and about two and a half cents on the dollar after the
year 2000. But this goes beyond cost-benefits calculations.
We can't afford not to.
To allow flexibility -- and achieve these reductions at the
lowest possible cost -- we're allowing utilities to "trade"
allowed emissions, so that emissions will be reduced by those who
can do it most cost-effectively.
We've already invested $500 million in studies. Now we're
putting what we know to work.
Pollution is not the inevitable by-product of progress.
Sound ecology and a strong economy can coexist. In the world as
it stands, the two depend directly and intimately, one upon the
other. Business leaders and environmental advocates must
understand how they have complementary, and not just competing
interests.
For ten years we have struggled to engage a broader effort
to halt the damage we've done to the natural world. We must move'
these issues out of the courts, and onto the national agenda. In
the United States, under this administration, environmental
protection will be a growth industry. We will harness the power
of the marketplace in the service of the environment.
(Lange/Wallace)
June 9, 1989
6:30 p.m.
[CLEANAIR.DOC]
PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS:
CLEAN AIR ACT ANNOUNCEMENT
EAST ROOM
MONDAY, JUNE 12, 1989
11:00 A.M.
[Welcome]
You've heard the stories. Or written them. Or lived them.
Up in the mountains of Acadia National Park in Maine --
where the sun first touches the United States -- rangers have
recorded ozone levels that would trigger a smog alert in Los
Angeles. In L.A., before that sun sets, the fog in nearby areas
can get as acidic as lemon juice.
And all over North America, our lakes and streams are in
danger. Trees are being ravaged by acid rain. The Germans call
it Waldsterben -- forest death.
In a few weeks, all you'll have to do is look out the
window. Or turn on the radio. You'll hear that older people
shouldn't venture out. That kids shouldn't go outside to play.
From this year forward -- with enough support from Congress
-- all of that will begin to change.
2
We should remember how far we've come -- and recognize what
works. The 1970 Clean Air Act got us moving in the right
direction -- with national air quality standards, and tighter
tailpipe emissions. Amendments in 1977 set even stronger
emissions standards.
And since 1978 -- in spite of X times as many cars, going y
as far -- in spite of more manufacturing productivity, more
utility output, and more industrial production -- we've still
made progress. Lead concentrations in the air we breathe are
down 88 percent. Sulfur dioxide and carbon monoxide: cut by
over a third. Particulate matter: cut 21 percent.
The environmental movement has a long history in this
country. It has been a force for good -- building a safer,
healthier America -- during times of phenomenal economic growth.
As a people, we have come to expect economic progress. We must
now also expect environmental responsibility -- and respect for
the natural world.
This will demand a new ethic of conservation. A national
sense of commitment.
3
I reject the notion that sound ecology and a strong economy
are an either-or proposition. So last week I outlined five
points of a new environmental philosophy.
One: to harness the power of the marketplace
Two: to encourage local initiative
Three: to emphasize prevention, instead of just clean-up
Four: foster international cooperation, and
Five: to ensure strict enforcement.
We know more now. New solutions are close at hand. It is
time to put our best minds to work. To turn technology and the
power of the marketplace to advantage. To create. To innovate.
To tip the scales in favor of recovery, restoration, and renewal.
Every American has the right to breathe clean air. And as
President, it is my mission to guarantee that right: for this
generation, and for generations to come.
If we take this mission seriously -- if we believe that
every American has the right to breathe clean air, and act on
that belief -- then the rest of the world will follow.
Today I am proposing to Congress a new Clean Air Act -- and
offering a new opportunity. Over the last decade our progress
against air pollution has been plagued by political stalemates.
4
Today, I'm asking Congress to cooperate. And it's time to clear
the air.
And you know, I think we will. We've had the benefit of
some good thinking on the Hill. Senators John Heinz and Tim
Wirth. Congressman A to Z. We've gained the counsel of groups
like Project 88, the Environmental Defense Fund, Harvard's
Kennedy School, the business and industrial leaders of the Clean
Air Working Group -- and many others.
I've heard the many voices who have a stake in this issue.
Considered all of the options. Thought long and hard about the
costs. And you know, people tend to paint these issues in stark
contrasts: United States versus Canada; Northeast VS. Midwest;
high sulfur coal regions VS. low; environmental goals vs. jobs.
We have had to make some tough choices. Some may think we've
gone too far -- and others, not far enough.
But we all care about clean air. Today, one hundred million
Americans breathe unhealthy air. I'm concerned about vulnerable
groups -- like the elderly, asthmatics, and children. Concerned
about every American's quality of life. And committed to the
natural legacy we pass on to our children.
Twenty years ago, we started the job. If Congress will act
on the Clean Air reforms I'm offering today, twenty years from
5
now, every American, in every city in America, will breathe clean
air.
The reforms we seek make major pollution reductions, where
we most need them, first. Our approach has reasonable deadlines
for those who must comply. It has compelling sanctions for those
who don't. It accounts for continued economic growth and
expansion. It ties in more extensive market mechanisms than any
previous piece of environmental legislation. It will be
comprehensive -- cost effective -- but above all, it will be
effective. We will make the 1990s the era for clean air.
We have three clear goals --- and three clear deadlines.
First, we will cut the Sulfur dioxide emissions that cause acid
rain in half -- by ten million tons -- before the end of this
century.
We have set absolute goals for reductions -- but recognize
that once a standard is set, drawing on market forces is the
fastest, most cost-effective way to achieve it.
[etc. -- the real stuff goes here]
6
[Rough conclusion:]
For ten years we have struggled to engage a united effort on
behalf of clean air. We are now on the edge of real change.
1989 could be recorded as the year when business leaders and
environmental advocates first worked toward complementary -- and
not just competing -- interests. A year when environmental
issues were moved out of the courts, and onto the national
agenda. The moment when leadership, both public and private,
mobilized to make environmental protection a growth industry.
Ours is a rare opportunity, to reverse the errors of this
generation, in the service of the next. We cannot, must not
fail.
We must prevail.
Thank you. God Bless you. And God Bless the United States
of America.
# # #
7
We stand firm on what must be achieved -- but will allow
flexibility in how industry achieves it.
Environmental problems are going to be solved through actions
taken in every community across the country.
And in this legislation we're providing market incentives, free
choice, and flexibility for industry to find the best solutions.
We can afford it. To the cost of electricity, an acid rain
control program will add just over a penny on the dollar in the
1990s -- and about two and a half cents on the dollar after the
year 2000. But this goes beyond cost-benefits calculations.
We can't afford not to.
To allow flexibility -- and achieve these reductions at the
lowest possible cost -- we're allowing utilities to "trade"
allowed emissions, so that emissions will be reduced by those who
can do it most cost-effectively.
We've already invested $500 million in studies. Now we're
putting what we know to work.
8
Toxics:
7 of 280
will give EPA the tools to do the job. I know that the dedicated
people of the Environmental Protection Agency will continue their
outstanding efforts, to implement this bill if Congress will make
it law.
Our best minds will apply the most advanced industrial technology
available, to control airborne poisons. We will reduce
industrial emissions of cancer causing agents by 75 to 90
percent. People who live near industrial facilities will no
longer live in fear.
we will prevent as many as 1500 cancer deaths every year, by
curbing automotive and industrial air toxics -- making state-of-
the-art technology an everyday fact of doing business. People
who live near chemical and manufacturing plants will breathe
easier, knowing that the very best control technology we have is
on those plants.
Smog:
9
We will reconcile the automobile to the environment --
allowing continued economic growth, and allowing Americans
continued freedom to use their automobiles without imposing
restrictions.
Twenty years ago, when the Clean Air Act was first written, we
began to see the problem. Now 100 thousand Americans, in 81
cities
But twenty years from now, every American -- in every city
in America -- will breathe clean air.
we will reduce the smog that has soured the air of our cities by
nearly 50 percent, by the year 2000 -- at a cost of only one
percent added to each new car purchased. We have set, and will
enforce, targets -- but we're giving cities and states the
flexibility they need to design their own strategies.
10
Jokes --
A [[ long term commitment it hasn't happened overnight. But
it has happened. It's like that woman in the shampoo ad, who
tells you not to hate her because she's beautiful
]]
B [[ Negativists say we want to have our cake and eat it too.
The fact is, we're finding new ways to bake the cake. ]]
C [[ emissions. You remember that scene where Eddie Murphy puts
the banana in the car's tailpipe, and it stalls? ]]
over a period when manufacturing productivity increased by a
third; utility output increased by a fourth; and industrial
output rose 28 percent -- we've still made progress
Jokes
OD news
Kathy pavon
-Sound bits
Quotes
John Heing who ebe LD.
Wein With - Call - the
Groups Proj '78
End. Defense Fund
Kennidy school
Get os into Event
Selma Siena - Interer
Really
Cadillac Mountain
Ren yale
Emmissions poolum (trading)
acadia
(207)
288 3013
fuel pooling
3338
acades
(201) 288 -3013
207-288 3338
11:00
Cadillac Mountains
Electric + Oblites
40-60% vehicle mily traveled
by20005
more regs to bung those areaimte
P2. P2
In spite of more can, twice the
Robbrenner
economic production -60%?
Vindustrial development
382-7400
(socity more mobile or something
5580
Donzingur
multiples and not statistics
7645
industrial
no Hing Wirth
Nancy Mollety
Someone ebe on industrial end.
Business industry backs.
Greenberg
-4586 - Dave Gibbon
CA. Working Group
John
Dep Admin EPA
Business + Intrastrial who have
adverp
X
-
- Clean -Automobile Air Working (voup)
- Bus Rndbs
- - U.S Chamber of lone
-NMA
Chemical Man. assoc
- Steel
-
Large Commercial Industrial Sources
Industrial + Connercial Production
up 28%
to
F1970/- 80 mellion can
to 797 bellion miles
1989 - 124 million cay
- 120
1,200,000,000 mily
JANUARY 2. 1989
$2.00
PLANET OF THE YEAR
1009
Endangered Earth
WASHINGTON DC 20503
0210078
890877 803N
#022399
MN 15 HILT 725
DC04RE**
EXC OFF-PRES EOPW
Unists
*EPW17725E92*3 T520503 APR90
205 11910-2*
*2666
1988
Vol. 133 No. 1
TIME
THE WEEKLY NEWSMAGAZINE
FOVER
PLANET OF THE YEAR: With drought,
24
4 Critics' Choice
92 Design
7 Letters
94 Cinema
famine and fouled beaches, the earth
16 American Ideas
95 Books
warns of environmental disaster
74 Nation
98 Food
81 World
100 Music
This wondrous globe has endured for some
84 Business
102 Theater
4.5 billion years, but its future is clouded by man's
88 Milestones
103 Show Business
reckless ways: overpopulation, pollution, waste of
90 Video
105 People
resources and wanton destruction of natural habitats.
Cover:
TIME analyzes the looming ecological crisis and
Wrapped Globe, 1988 by Christo,
provides an agenda for urgent action.
photographed by Gianfranco Gorgoni
TIME (ISSN 0040-781X) is published weekly for $58.24 per year, by The Time Inc. Magazine Company. Principal Office: Time & Life Building, Rockefeller Center, New York, N.Y., 10020-1393.
Reginald K. Brack Jr., President; Michael J. Klingensmith, Treasurer; Harry M. Johnston, Secretary. Second-class postage paid at New York, N.Y., and additional mailing offices. © 1988 The Time
Inc. Magazine Company. All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited. TIME and the Red Border Design are protected through trademark registra-
tion in the United States and in the foreign countries where TIME magazine circulates. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to TIME, P.O. Box 30601, Tampa, Fla. 33630-0601. Customer
inquiries: TIME, P.O. Box 60001, Tampa, Fla. 33660-0001
2
Are We AreWe Doing? Doing?
PLANET OF THE YEAR
CHIP
FLOODS IN BANGLADESH: This year the earth spoke, like God warning Noah of the deluge, and people began to listen
BY THOMAS A. SANCTON
doubled by 1930 and doubled again by 1975. If current birthrates
hold, the world's present population of 5.1 billion will double again
One generation passeth away, and another generation cometh:
in 40 more years. The frightening irony is that this exponential
but the earth abideth forever.
growth in the human population-the very sign of homo sapiens'
-Ecclesiastes
success as an organism-could doom the earth as a human habitat.
The reason is not so much the sheer numbers, though 40,000
o, not forever. At the outside limit, the earth will
babies die of starvation each day in Third World countries, but
N
probably last another 4 billion to 5 billion years. By
the reckless way in which humanity has treated its planetary
that time, scientists predict, the sun will have burned
host. Like the evil genies that flew from Pandora's box, techno-
up so much of its own hydrogen fuel that it will ex-
logical advances have provided the means of upsetting nature's
pand and incinerate the surrounding planets, includ-
equilibrium, that intricate set of biological, physical and chemi-
ing the earth. A nuclear cataclysm, on the other hand, could de-
cal interactions that make up the web of life. Starting at the
stroy the earth tomorrow. Somewhere within those extremes lies
dawn of the Industrial Revolution, smokestacks have disgorged
the life expectancy of this wondrous, swirling globe. How long it
noxious gases into the atmosphere, factories have dumped toxic
endures and the quality of life it can support do not depend alone
wastes into rivers and streams, automobiles have guzzled irre-
on the immutable laws of physics. For man has reached a point
placeable fossil fuels and fouled the air with their detritus. In the
in his evolution where he has the power to affect, for better or
name of progress, forests have been denuded, lakes poisoned
worse, the present and future state of the planet.
with pesticides, underground aquifers pumped dry. For decades,
Through most of his 2 million years or so of existence, man has
scientists have warned of the possible consequences of all this
thrived in earth's environment-perhaps too well. By 1800 there
profligacy. No one paid much attention.
were 1 billion human beings bestriding the planet. That number had
This year the earth spoke, like God warning Noah of the deluge.
26
Photo on preceding pages by H. Silvester-Rapho
JEAN-LOUIS ATLAN-SYGMA
listen
DROUGHT IN NORTH DAKOTA: Dry heat and fears of global warming
irthrates Its message was loud and clear, and suddenly people began to listen,
the carelessness that has become humanity's habit in dealing with
ble again to ponder what portents the message held. In the U.S., a three-
nature.
onential month drought baked the soil from California to Georgia, reducing
There were other forebodings of environmental disaster. In
, sapiens' the country's grain harvest by 31% and killing thousands of head of
the U.S. it was revealed that federal weapons-making plants had
1 habitat. livestock. A stubborn seven-week heat wave drove temperatures
recklessly and secretly littered large areas with radioactive waste.
gh 40,000 above 100° F across much of the country, raising fears that the
The further depletion of the atmosphere's ozone layer, which helps
tries, but dreaded "greenhouse effect"-global warming as a result of the
block cancer-causing ultraviolet rays, testified to the continued
planetary buildup of carbon dioxide and other gases in the atmosphere-
overuse of atmosphere-destroying chlorofluorocarbons emanating
techno- might already be under way. Parched by the lack of rain, the West-
from such sources as spray cans and air-conditioners. Perhaps
3 nature's ern forests of the U.S., including Yellowstone National Park, went
most ominous of all, the destruction of the tropical forests, home to
id chemi- up in flames, also igniting a bitter conservationist controversy. And
at least half the earth's plant and animal species, continued at a
ng at the on many of the country's beaches, garbage, raw sewage and medical
rate equal to one football field a second.
disgorged wastes washed up to spoil the fun of bathers and confront them per-
Most of these evils had been going on for a long time, and
iped toxic sonally with the growing despoliation of the oceans.
some of the worst disasters apparently had nothing to do with
zled irre- Similar pollution closed beaches on the Mediterranean, the
human behavior. Yet this year's bout of freakish weather and en-
tus. In the North Sea and the English Channel. Killer hurricanes ripped
vironmental horror stories seemed to act as a powerful catalyst
poisonedthrough the Caribbean and floods devastated Bangladesh, remind-
for worldwide public opinion. Everyone suddenly sensed that
r decades.ers of nature's raw power. In Soviet Armenia a monstrous earth-
this gyrating globe, this precious repository of all the life that we
of all thisquake killed some 55,000 people. That too was a natural disaster, but
know of, was in danger. No single individual, no event, no move-
its high casualty count, owing largely to the construction of cheap
ment captured imaginations or dominated headlines more than
the delugehigh-rise apartment blocks over a well-known fault area, illustrated
the clump of rock and soil and water and air that is our common
TIME, JANUARY 2, 1989
27
PLANET OF THE YEAR
PETER CHARLESWORTH-JB PICTURES
SMOG IN BEIJING: Continued reliance on vast coal reserves will only worsen China's air pollution
home. Thus in a rare but not unprecedented departure from its
Toxic waste and radioactive contamination could lead to short-
tradition of naming a Man of the Year, TIME has designated En-
ages of safe drinking water, the sine qua non of human existence.
dangered Earth as Planet of the Year for 1988.
And in a world that could house between 8 billion and 14 billion
To help focus its coverage, TIME invited 33 scientists, admin-
people by the mid-21st century, there is a strong likelihood of mass
istrators and political leaders from ten countries to a three-day
starvation. It is even possible to envision the world so wryly and
conference in Boulder in November. The group included experts
chillingly prophesied by the typewriting cockroach in Donald Mar-
in climate change, population, waste disposal and the preserva-
quis' archy and mehitabel: "man is making deserts of the earth/ it
tion of species. In addition to explaining the complexities of
wont be long now/ before man will have it used up/ SO that nothing
these interlocking problems, the specialists advanced a wide
but ants/ and centipedes and scorpions/ can find a living on it."
range of practical ideas and suggestions that TIME has fashioned
There are those who believe the worst scenarios are alarmist
into an agenda for environmental action. That agenda, accom-
and ill founded. Some scientists contest the global-warming the-
panied by stories on each of the major environmental problems,
ory or predict that natural processes will counter its effects. Ken-
appears throughout the following pages.
neth E.F. Watt, professor of environmental studies at the Univer-
What would happen if nothing were done about the earth's im-
sity of California at Davis, has gone so far as to call the greenhouse
periled state? According to computer projections, the accumulation
effect "the laugh of the century." S. Fred Singer, a geophysicist
of CO2 in the atmosphere could drive up the planet's average tem-
working for the U.S. Department of Transportation, predicts that
perature 3° F to 9° F by the middle of the next century. That could
any greenhouse warming will be balanced by an increase in heat-
cause the oceans to rise by several feet, flooding coastal areas and
reflecting clouds. The skeptics could be right, but it is far too risky
ruining huge tracts of farmland through salinization. Changing
to do nothing while awaiting absolute proof of disaster.
weather patterns could make huge areas infertile or uninhabitable,
Whatever the validity of this or that theory, the earth will not
touching off refugee movements unprecedented in history.
remain as it is now. From its beginnings as a chunk of molten
28
TIME, JANUARY 2, 1989
WILLIAM CAMPBELL
FAMINE IN MOZAMBIQUE: 40,000 babies starve to death each day
rock and gas some 4.5 billion years ago, the planet has seen con-
tions ongoing worldwide promise to be at least as great as the mass
tinents form, move together and drift apart like jigsaw-puzzle
extinction that occurred at the end of the age of dinosaurs."
pieces. Successive ice ages have sent glaciers creeping down from
Humanity's current predatory relationship with nature re-
the polar caps. Mountain ranges have jutted up from ocean beds,
flects a man-centered world view that has evolved over the ages.
and landmasses have disappeared beneath the waves.
Almost every society has had its myths about the earth and its
origins. The ancient Chinese depicted Chaos as an enormous egg
revious shifts in the earth's climate or topology have
whose parts separated into earth and sky, yin and yang. The
P
been accompanied by waves of extinctions. The most
Greeks believed Gaia, the earth, was created immediately after
spectacular example is the dying off of the great di-
Chaos and gave birth to the gods. In many pagan societies, the
nosaurs during the Cretaceous period (136 million to
earth was seen as a mother, a fertile giver of life. Nature-the
65 million years ago). No one knows exactly what
soil, forest, sea-was endowed with divinity, and mortals were
killed the dinosaurs, although a radical change in environmental
subordinate to it.
conditions seems a likely answer. One popular theory is that a
The Judeo-Christian tradition introduced a radically different
huge meteor crashed to earth and kicked up such vast clouds of
concept. The earth was the creation of a monotheistic God, who,
dust that sunlight was obscured and plants destroyed. Result: the
after shaping it, ordered its inhabitants, in the words of Genesis.
dinosaurs starved to death.
"Be fruitful and multiply, and replenish the earth and subdue it:
Whether or not that theory is correct, an event of no less magni-
and have dominion over the fish of the sea and over the fowl of the
tude is taking place at this very moment, but this time its agent is
air and over every living thing that moveth upon the earth." The
man. The wholesale burning and cutting of forests in Brazil and oth-
idea of dominion could be interpreted as an invitation to use nature
er countries, as one major example, are destroying irreplaceable
as a convenience. Thus the spread of Christianity, which is general-
species every day. Says Harvard biologist E.O. Wilson: "The extinc-
ly considered to have paved the way for the development of tech-
TIME, JANUARY 2, 1989
29
PLANET OF THE YEAR
PHOTOREPORTERS
DEATH IN THE NORTH SEA: Their immune systems weakened by pollution, thousands of seals died of pneumonia
nology, may at the same time have carried the seeds of the wanton
unknown except in wartime. Yet humanity is in a war right now,
exploitation of nature that often accompanied technical progress.
and it is not too Draconian to call it a war for survival. It is a war
Those tendencies were compounded by the Enlightenment
in which all nations must be allies. Both the causes and effects of
notion of a mechanistic universe that man could shape to his
the problems that threaten the earth are global, and they must be
own ends through science. The exuberant optimism of that
attacked globally. "All nations are tied together as to their com-
world view was behind some of the greatest achievements of
mon fate," observes Peter Raven, director of the Missouri Botan-
modern times: the invention of laborsaving machines, the dis-
ical Garden. "We are all facing a common problem, which is,
covery of anesthetics and vaccines, the development of efficient
How are we going to keep this single resource we have, namely
transportation and communication systems. But, increasingly,
the world, viable?"
technology has come up against the law of unexpected conse-
As man heads into the last decade of the 20th century, he
quences. Advances in health care have lengthened life-spans,
finds himself at a crucial turning point: the actions of those now
lowered infant-mortality rates and, thus, aggravated the popula-
living will determine the future, and possibly the very survival,
tion problem. The use of pesticides has increased crop yields but
of the species. "We do not have generations, we only have years,
polluted water supplies. The invention of automobiles and jet
in which to attempt to turn things around," warns Lester Brown,
planes has revolutionized travel but sullied the atmosphere.
president of the Washington-based Worldwatch Institute. Every
Yet the advance of technology has never destroyed man's
individual on the planet must be made aware of its vulnerability
wonder and awe at the beauty of the earth. The coming of Eng-
and of the urgent need to preserve it. No attempt to protect the
land's Industrial Revolution, with its "dark Satanic mills," coin-
environment will be successful in the long run unless ordinary
cided with the extraordinary flowering of Romantic poetry,
people-the California housewife, the Mexican peasant, the So-
much of it about the glory of nature. Many people in this century
viet factory worker, the Chinese farmer-are willing to adjust
voiced the same tender feelings on seeing the first images of the
their life-styles. Our wasteful, careless ways must become a
earth as viewed from the moon. The sight of that shimmering,
thing of the past. We must recycle more, procreate less, turn off
luminescent ball set against the black void inspired even normal-
lights, use mass transit, do a thousand things differently in our
ly prosaic astronauts to flights of eloquence. Edgar Mitchell, who
everyday lives. We owe this not only to ourselves and our chil-
flew to the moon aboard Apollo 14 in 1971, described the planet
dren but also to the unborn generations who will one day inherit
as "a sparkling blue-and-white jewel
laced with slowly swirl-
the earth.
ing veils of white like a small pearl in a thick sea of black
Mobilizing that sort of mass commitment will take extraor-
mystery." Photos of the earth from space prompted geologist
dinary leadership, of the kind that has appeared before in times
Preston Cloud to write, "Mother Earth will never seem the same
of crisis: Churchill's eloquence galvanizing his embattled coun-
again. No more can thinking people take this little planet
as
trymen to live "their finest hour," F.D.R.'s pragmatic idealism
an infinite theater of action and provider of resources for man,
giving hope and jobs to Depression-ridden Americans. Now,
yielding new largesse to every demand without limit." That con-
more than ever, the world needs leaders who can inspire their
clusion seems all the more imperative in the wake of the environ-
fellow citizens with a fiery sense of mission, not a nationalistic or
mental shocks of 1988.
military campaign but a universal crusade to save the planet.
Let there be no illusions. Taking effective action to halt the
Unless mankind embraces that cause totally, and without delay,
massive injury to the earth's environment will require a mobili-
it may have no alternative to the bang of nuclear holocaust or the
zation of political will, international cooperation and sacrifice
whimper of slow extinction.
30
TIME, JANUARY 2, 1989
PLANET OF THE YEAR
GREGORY DIMIJIAN-PHOTO RESEARCHERS
VANISHING FORESTS: Even Costa Rica's high-altitude cloud forests are now threatened by ranchers and farmers.
BIODIVERSITY
The Death of Birth
THE PROBLEM: Man is recklessly wiping out life on earth
BY EUGENE LINDEN
ades man will drive an average of 100 species to extinction every
day. Extinction is part of evolution, but the present rate is at least
efore Brazil's great land rush, the emerald rain forests
1,000 times the pace that has prevailed since prehistory.
B
of Rondônia state were an unspoiled showcase for the
Even the mass extinctions 65 million years ago that killed off
diversity of life. In this lush territory south of the Ama-
the dinosaurs and countless other species did not significantly af-
zon, there was hardly a break in the canopy of 200-ft.-
fect flowering plants, according to Harvard biologist E.O. Wil-
tall trees, and virtually every acre was alive with the cacophony
son. But these plant species are disappearing now, and people,
of all kinds of insects, birds and monkeys. Then, beginning in the
not comets or volcanoes, are the angels of destruction. Moreover,
1970s, came the swarms of settlers, slashing and burning huge
the earth is suffering the decline of entire ecosystems-the nurs-
swaths through the forest to create roads, towns and fields. They
eries of new life-forms. For that reason, Wilson deems this crisis
came to enjoy a promised land, but they have merely produced a
the "death of birth." British ecologist Norman Myers has called
network of devastation. The soil that supported a rich rain forest
it the "greatest single setback to life's abundance and diversity
is not well suited to corn and other crops, and most of the new-
since the first flickerings of life almost 4 billion years ago."
comers can eke out only an impoverished, disease-ridden exis-
Nearly every habitat is at risk. Forests in the northern hemi-
tence. In the process, they are destroying an ecosystem and the
sphere have fallen to lumbering, development and acid rain. Ma-
millions of species of plants and animals that live in it. An esti-
rine ecosystems around the world are threatened by pollution,
mated 20% of Rondônia's forest is gone, and at present rates of
overfishing and coastal development. It is in the tropics, though,
destruction it will be totally wiped out within 25 years.
that the battle to preserve what scientists call biodiversity will be
Around the globe, on land and in the sea, the story is much
won or lost. Tropical forests cover only 7% of the earth's surface,
the same. Spurred by poverty, population growth, ill-advised pol-
but they house between 50% and 80% of the planet's species.
icies and simple greed, humanity is at war with the plants and
But should people in developed countries care about the sur-
animals that share its planet. Peter Raven, director of the Mis-
vival of tropical species never seen outside a rain forest? Yes,
souri Botanical Garden. predicts that during the next three dec-
they should. Variety is the spice of life, goes the saying. Biologists
32
TIME, JANUARY 2, 1989
PLANET OF THE YEAR
CLAUS MEYER-BLACK STAR
JOHN VISSER-BRUCE COLEMAN INC.
JOE MCDONALD-ANIMALS, ANIMALS
ENDANGERED:
ENDANGERED:
ENDANGERED:
Golden-Headed Tamarin
Day Gecko
Snow Leopard
No one knows how many of these
Native to an island near Mauritius,
Despite protection, the big cat is
primates remain in ragged remnants
in the Indian Ocean, this type of
hunted in Central Asia for its soft,
of Brazil's once vast coastal forests.
gecko is losing its habitat.
beautiful pelt.
would go further and argue that variety is the very stuff of life.
conquered diseases. "I know of three plants with the potential to
Life needs diversity because of the interdependencies that link
treat AIDS," said Janzen. "One grows in an Australian rain for-
flora and fauna, and because variation within species allows
est, one in Panama and one in Costa Rica."
them to adapt to environmental challenges. But even as the
world's human population explodes, other life is ebbing from the
ature's diversity offers many opportunities for agricul-
planet. Humanity is making a risky wager-that it does not need
N
ture, especially now that genetic mapping and engi-
the great variety of earth's species to survive.
neering have given biotechnology firms the potential
Despite the alarm with which scientists view this trend, bio-
power to improve crops by transferring genes from
diversity has just surfaced on the world's political agenda. The
wild strains. According to Wilson, biotechnology can transform
troubles of high-profile animals such as the tiger and rhino grab
a plant into a "loose-leaf notebook" from which scientists can se-
public attention, while most people hardly see the point of wor-
lect a particular page. Among the possible results: drought- and
rying about insects or plants. But extinction is the one environ-
frost-resistant crops, and natural fertilizers and pesticides.
mental calamity that is irreversible. As these lowly species disap-
Diversity is the raw material of earth's wealth, but nature's
pear unnoticed, they take with them hard-won lessons of
true creativity lies in the relationships that link various crea-
survival encoded in their genes over millions of years.
tures. The coral in a reef or the orchid in a rain forest is part of an
Only 1.7 million of the estimated 5 million to 30 million dif-
ecosystem, a fragile, often delicately balanced conglomeration of
ferent life-forms on earth have been cataloged. Since hundreds
supports, checks and balances that integrate life-forms into func-
of thousands of species may be extinct by the year 2000, the
tioning communities. Given the complex workings of an ecosys-
world has neither the scientists nor the time to identify the yet
tem, it is never clear which species, if any, are expendable.
uncounted. "It's as though the nations of the world decided to
In the tropics the crucial question is how large a forest must
burn their libraries without bothering to see what is in them,"
be to sustain itself. If a park or protected area is too small to sup-
said University of Pennsylvania biologist Daniel Janzen at the
port some of its animal and plant life, the ecosystem will decline
TIME conference. Harvard's Wilson called this profligacy the
even with protection. As yet, no one knows the minimum critical
"folly" that future generations are least likely to forgive.
size of a rain forest, but in 1979 Thomas Lovejoy, now at the
Humanity already benefits greatly from the genetic heritage
Smithsonian Institution, set up a 20-year experiment with the
of little-known species. Some 25% of the pharmaceuticals in use
cooperation of the Brazilian government to determine just that
in the U.S. today contain ingredients originally derived from
for the Amazon region. Among the findings: the smaller the for-
wild plants. Hidden anonymously in clumps of vegetation about
est, the faster the decline of insects, birds and mammals.
to be bulldozed or burned might be plants with cures for still un-
Biologists have identified numerous "hot spots" where eco-
1.
What
Develop local organizations and educational programs to impress upon people the val-
ue of genetic diversity and the irreversible damage that occurs when species are wiped out.
Nations
2.
Establish comprehensive national zoning plans so that preservation goes hand in hand
Should
with development.
Do
3.
Set up projects to demonstrate that tropical forests and other endangered habitats
can be developed-and yield economic returns-without being destroyed.
4.
Make environmental review an integral part of lending procedures within nations so
that local banks are prevented from providing funds for projects that destroy habitats.
5.
Increase funding to develop zoos and other "gene banks" as places where species can
be perpetuated.
TIME. JANUARY 2, 1989
33
PLANET OF THE YEAR
ANIMALS N ANNHOR
RAYMOND MENDEZ
PETER LOWRY
ENDANGERED:
ENDANGERED:
ENDANGERED:
Bald Eagle
Harlequin Beetle
Symphonia
The U.S. national bird has ever
Found in Central and South Ameri-
This plant clings to survival in Mad-
fewer refuges from hunters and
can rain forests, the beetle breeds in
agascar, where 90% of the original
poisonous pesticides.
trees that are fast disappearing.
vegetation has been destroyed.
systems are under attack and large numbers of unique species
just as important is a concerted campaign to convince the people
face an immediate threat of elimination. Among the troubled ar-
of developing countries that it is in their own long-term interest
eas: Madagascar, where more than 90% of the original vegeta-
to preserve their environments. Wiping out forests may make
tion has disappeared; the monsoon forests of the Himalayan
developing nations momentarily richer, but it is bound to pro-
foothills that are being denuded by villagers in search of fire-
duce a poorer future.
wood, building materials and arable land; New Caledonia, 83%
Experience has shown the Third World that destruction of
of whose plants occur nowhere else; the eastern slope of the An-
forests can have disastrous consequences. Forests are vital wa-
des, as well as forests in East Africa, peninsular Malaysia, north-
tersheds that absorb excess moisture and anchor topsoil. Defor-
east Australia and along the Atlantic coast of Brazil.
estation contributed to the recent droughts in Africa and the
Since less than 5% of the world's tropical forests receive any
devastating mud slides in Rio de Janeiro last year. In Costa Rica
protection, the stage is set for mass extinctions. Many plants and
topsoil eroded from bald hills has greatly shortened the life of an
animals are doomed, no matter what measures are taken. Some
expensive hydroelectric dam. Alvaro Umaña, Costa Rica's Min-
researchers estimate that at least 12% of
ister of Industry, Energy and Mines, esti-
the bird species in the Amazon basin, as
mated that the surrounding watershed
well as 15% of the plants in Central and
might have been protected 20 years ago
South America, can be counted among
Dividends
for a cost of $5 million. Now the govern-
what Janzen calls the "living dead."
ment must reforest the watershed at ten
Many tropical mammals and reptiles
From Diversity
times that price.
face only bleak survival under what
Halting the assault on biodiversity
amounts to house arrest in game parks
Few Americans realize how often
will not be easy, but there are many ac-
and ZOOS.
exotic plants and animals yield unex-
tions that governments can take. First,
Why are so many species and envi-
pected benefits. Some examples:
they should develop and support local
ronments threatened? The main reason
scientific institutions that train profes-
is that throughout the tropics, developing
sionals in conservation techniques. More
Squibb used the venom of the Bra-
nations are struggling to feed their peo-
money should flow into educational pro-
zilian pit viper to develop Capoten, a
ples and raise cash to make payments on
grams that alert people to the irreversible
international debts. Many countries are
drug for high blood pressure.
consequences of a loss of genetic diversi-
chopping down their forests for the sake
ty. An international, environmental ver-
By transplanting genes from tropi-
of timber exports. In Central America
sion of the Peace Corps could spread con-
cal tomatoes, the NPI biotech firm in-
forests are giving way to cattle ranches,
servation expertise to the Third World.
which supply beef to American fast-food
creased the density of U.S. tomatoes
Throughout the developing nations
chains. The pressures on forests have led
2%, promising catsup manufacturers
there are encouraging stirrings of local
Janzen, who has spent 26 years strug-
extra profits.
environmental activity. In Malaysia
gling to save Costa Rica's woodlands, to
blowgun-armed Penan tribesmen have
conclude that "everything outside parks
Scientists believe that arcelin, a
joined forces with environmentalists in
will be gone, and everything inside the
natural protein in wild Mexican beans
an effort to stop rampant logging. And in
parks is threatened."
that repels insects, might protect
Brazil, which has some 500 conservation
Efforts to stop the destruction run
some U.S. crops without poisoning soil
organizations, environmentalist José Pe-
into moral as well as practical obstacles.
and water.
dro de Oliveira Costa organized a coali-
How can developed nations demand
tion of legislators, conservationists, in-
onerous debt payments and ask the debt-
Future newspapers may be printed
dustrialists and media barons to stir
ors to preserve their forests? How can
on paper from kenaf, an African plant
public support to preserve Brazil's re-
countries worry about biodiversity when
that can produce five times as much
maining Atlantic forests. "The threats to
their people are concerned with feeding
pulp an acre than the trees normally
the forests remain," said Costa, "but now
themselves?
cut for newsprint.
at least there is a network in place to
To begin with, the rich nations must
scream when a threat arises."
reduce the debt burden of the poor. But
But environmental protection must
34
TIME, JANUARY 2, 1989
PLANET OF THE YEAR
JOHN CHELLMAN-ANIMALS, ANIMALS
KENNETH HEIL-U.S. FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE
Z LESZCZYNSKI-ANIMALS, ANIMALS
ENDANGERED:
ENDANGERED:
ENDANGERED:
Western Tragopan
San Rafael Cactus
Drill
Native to Himalayan mountain
One of many U.S. plants in jeopar-
Hunting and deforestation have
forests, this bird is vulnerable to
dy, the cactus is besieged by devel-
reduced this monkey's territory to
peasants who cut trees for fuel.
opment and collectors.
remote forests in Cameroon.
make economic sense, and development must go hand in hand
partment of the World Bank, "right up to a park's boundary."
with preservation. Development should be sustainable, meaning
Financial as well as political leverage can be used in the
that it should use up resources no faster than they can be regen-
cause of preservation. Governments should force local lending
erated by nature. Governments and private firms should orga-
institutions to review the environmental consequences of pro-
nize projects to show that forests can be used without being oblit-
posed loans. No bank, for example, should be allowed to lend a
erated. If trees are cut selectively, forests can yield profits and
company money to set up a cattle ranch if the operation would
survive to produce more money in the future. Another way to
destroy too large a section of an endangered forest.
harvest cash from forests and other habitats is to set up tours and
Finally, the unfortunate reality is that many habitats are not
safaris to attract animal lovers and photography buffs. Long a
going to be saved. To prevent the genetic legacy of those areas
moneymaker in Africa and the Galápagos Islands, this "ecotour-
from being extinguished, as many species as possible should be
ism" is spreading to such places as Costa Rica.
preserved in zoos, botanical gardens and other "gene banks."
For sustainable development to work, observed Paulo No-
There, scientists can study a small percentage of threatened or-
gueira-Neto, environmental adviser to the Brazilian Ministry of
ganisms and have the options of later returning them to the wild
Culture, governments will have to devise comprehensive national
or transplanting some of their genes into other species.
zoning plans so that their countries can achieve the right mix of
But the best place to preserve the earth's biodiversity is in the
preservation and economic growth. Local residents can be encour-
ecosystems that gave rise to it. Man must abandon the belief that
aged to earn a livelihood in the more robust areas, while habitats
the natural order is mere stuff to be managed and domesticated,
that are fragile can be protected. Sustainab development can pro-
and accept that humans, like other creatures, depend on a web of
ceed, noted Kenneth Piddington, director of the environmental de-
life that must be disturbed as little as possible.
The Good News: Costa Rica Guards Its Forests
When a fungal disease began
ment to its dwindling natural resources.
dozens of new varieties of cash crops to
ravaging Levy Bryant's four-
The country has more than 20 national
more than 20 communities in the Tala-
hectare cacao farm a decade
parks, wildlife preserves and other pro-
manca region, set up plant nurseries
ago, the landowner could
tected areas covering 2,577 sq. mi., or 13%
serving 1,500 people, and helped estab-
have done what other be-
of the land. Moreover, the nation's stable
lish a 10,000-hectare wildlife refuge.
sieged farmers have done. He might eas-
democracy has attracted hundreds of sci-
The encroachment of cow pastures
ily have picked up an ax and begun cut-
entists and ecologists, making Costa Rica
on the cloud forest at Monteverde
ting down more tropical rain forest
a laboratory for finding out what is possi-
spurred another of Costa Rica's efforts
around his land on Costa Rica's Carib-
ble in terms of sustainable development in
to save its natural heritage. In 1972, 350
bean coast. He could have sold the tim-
the tropics.
hectares of land owned by American
ber from the tall laurel trees that shade
One of the major reasons Bryant's
Quakers who had settled the region in
the cacao bushes, then burned the dense
plantation is not a fast-eroding cow pas-
the 1950s were set aside as a private re-
virgin forest on the hill behind his farm.
ture is that he got help from an environ-
serve. Over the years that has grown to
Then Bryant, like so many financially
mental group called Anai (which means
10,500 hectares. One key to preserving
strapped small farmers in Latin Ameri-
"friend" in the language of the local Bribri
this huge area was to allow local people
ca, could have sown pasture and sold the
Indians). "We probably wouldn't still be
to develop a tourist business. In five
land to a cattle rancher. Within three or
farming if it wasn't for these guys," admits
years the annual number of visitors has
four years, one more small piece of the
Bryant. Anai provided him with new
gone from 6,000 to 15,000, and could
tropics would have vanished.
kinds of crops, including vanilla plants
climb to more than 30,000 when a new
That Bryant did not rush headlong
and a different variety of cacao tree,
road up from the plain is built. That suc-
down this slippery ecological slope is in
which is less likely to die from fungus.
cess shows that forests can produce in-
part testimony to Costa Rica's commit-
Over the past five years, Anai has brought
come without being destroyed.
TIME, JANUARY 2. 1989
35
PLANET
O F
THE
YEAR
THOMAS IVES
HIDDEN MENACE: Invisible CO2 emitted along with smoke from this Arizona copper smelter is warming up the air
GLOBAL WARMING
Feeling the Heat
THEPROBL Greenhouse gases could create a climatic calamity
BY MICHAEL D. LEMONICK
Hansen thus became perhaps the most prominent scientist
willing to say straight out that the earth-warming effect of excess
or more than a decade, many scientists have warned that
F
carbon dioxide (CO2) and other gases generated by industry and
cars and factories are spewing enough gases into the at-
agriculture had crossed the line from theory into fact. By itself,
mosphere to heat up the earth in a greenhouse effect that
Hansen's bold assertion was dramatic enough. But the unusual
could eventually produce disastrous climate changes. But
string of weather-related disasters that struck the world last
until recently, the prophets of global warming garnered about as
summer could not have been better timed to drive his point
much attention as the religious zealots who insist that Armaged-
home. The heat waves, droughts, floods and hurricanes may be
don is near. When Colorado Senator Timothy Wirth held con-
previews of what could happen with ever increasing frequency if
gressional hearings on the greenhouse effect in the fall of 1987, the
the atmosphere warms 3° F to 8° F by the middle of the next cen-
topic generated no heat at all. "We had a very, very distinguished
tury, as some scientists predict.
panel," Wirth recalled at the TIME Environment Conference,
On the other hand, the summer's disasters may have had
"and who was in the cavernous hearing room? Six or seven peo-
nothing to do with the greenhouse effect. They could have been
ple, and two or three of them were lost tourists."
random events-all part of the natural year-to-year variations in
So Wirth decided to schedule another hearing in the sum-
weather. Many climatologists called Hansen's remarks prema-
mer, hoping hot weather would make people pay attention to the
ture and feared that if this summer happens to be cool, public
greenhouse issue. Sure enough, when the hearing convened last
worries about the greenhouse effect will quickly fade.
June 23, the thermometer read 99° F, a Washington record for
Unfortunately, scientists cannot agree on how much global
that day. The room was packed when James Hansen, head of
warming has occurred, how much more is on the way and what
NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, turned global warm-
the climatic consequences will be, giving policymakers an excuse
ing into front-page news at last. "It is time to stop waffling SO
for delay. But no one disputes the fact that the amount of CO2 in
much," he declared. "The evidence is pretty strong that the
the atmosphere has risen and continues to increase rapidly and
greenhouse effect is here."
that the human race is thus conducting a dangerous experiment
36
TIME. JANUARY 2. 1989
PLANET OF THE YEAR
ROBERT
WILFRIED SPIRANDELLI
20
GAS GUZZLING: A Bangkok tie-up symbolizes growing Third
IOWA'S FUTURE? Climate change could
World energy demands, which hurt efforts to cut fossil-fuel use
erode land into dunes like these in Somalia
on an unprecedented scale. The possible consequences are SO
would have an average surface temperature of only 0° F instead
scary that it is only prudent for governments to slow the buildup
of 59° F. Reason: like the glass panes of a greenhouse, CO2 mole-
of CO2 through preventive measures, from encouraging energy
cules are transparent to visible light, allowing the sun's rays to
conservation to developing alternatives to fossil fuels.
warm the earth's surface. But when the surface gives off its ex-
Some forecasters have suggested that the impact of global
cess heat, it does so not with visible light but with infrared radia-
warming will not be uniformly bad around the world. After all,
tion. And since CO2 absorbs infrared rays, some of the excess
Canada would not complain if the productive corn-growing
heat stays in the atmosphere rather than escaping into space.
lands of the U.S. Midwest shifted north across the border, and
How much heat is retained depends on how much CO2 is in the
the Soviet Union might welcome a warmer, more hospitable Si-
air.
beria. But while the broad outlines of a hotter world are easy to
draw, more specific projections are riddled with uncertainty,
ecent research has confirmed that this is more than
since the regional weather patterns that would prevail are large-
ly unpredictable. If Canada becomes much dryer than it is now
R
just theory. By drilling deep into Antarctic and Arctic
ice, scientists have been able to measure the amount of
for example, higher temperatures will not help much.
CO2 in air bubbles trapped in ancient layers of snow.
Moreover, while some nations will probably end up with a
They have also looked at fossilized plant tissues for clues as to
more benign climate than they now have, the pace of change
how warm the air was during the same period. The conclusion:
could be so jarring that the benefits would be lost. "We're talking
CO2 levels and global temperatures have risen and fallen togeth-
about rates of climate change perhaps 100 times faster than at
er, over tens of thousands of years. And there is evidence from
any time in human history," said Stephen Schneider of the Na-
space: Mars, which has little CO2 in its atmosphere, has a surface
tional Center for Atmospheric Research. Ecosystems will not be
temperature that reaches 24° F at best, while Venus, with lots
able to adjust so quickly, he said, "and the faster things change,
of CO2, is a hellish 850° F.
the more likely it is that the impact will be negative." Warned
The ebb and flow of CO2 on earth was caused by only natural
Thomas Lovejoy of the Smithsonian Institution: "There will be
processes until less than 200 years ago. With the arrival of the In-
no winners in this game of ecological chairs, for it will be funda-
dustrial Revolution in the early 1800s, man suddenly threw a
mentally disruptive and destabilizing, and we can anticipate
new factor into the climatic equation. Carbon dioxide is released
hordes of environmental refugees dwarfing the numbers of the
in large quantities when wood and such fossil fuels as coal, oil
Dust Bowl era or the boat people."
and natural gas are burned. As society industrialized, coal-burn-
Ironically, the same greenhouse effect that may be so dislo-
ing factories began releasing CO2 faster than plants and oceans,
cating made earth hospitable to life in the first place. Without a
which absorb the gas, could handle it. In the early 1900s, people
heat-trapping blanket of naturally occurring CO2, the planet
began burning oil and gas at prodigious rates. And increasing
1.
What
Impose special taxes on carbon-dioxide emissions, which would encourage energy
conservation.
Nations
2.
Increase funding for research on alternative energy sources, including solar power, and
Should
safer designs for nuclear reactors.
Do
3.
Provide financial aid to enable developing nations to build high-efficiency power plants
rather than conventional facilities.
4.
Launch a mammoth international tree-planting program.
5.
Develop techniques for recovering part of the methane that is given off by landfills and
cattle feedlots.
TIME, JANUARY 2, 1989
37
PLANET OF THE YE'AR
PETER MENZEL
CLEAN POWER: Mirrors near San Diego focus sunlight to change water to steam, which drives electric generators
population led to the widespread cutting of trees in less devel-
World Resources Institute. Tree planting can be encouraged at
oped countries. These trees are no longer available to soak up ex-
all levels of society, from individuals putting an extra tree or two
cess CO2, and whether they are burned or left to rot, they instead
in their backyards to local communities and private organiza-
release the gas. By the late 1800s atmospheric CO2 had risen to
tions planting an acre at a time to provincial and national gov-
between 280 and 290 parts per million. Today it stands at 350
ernments reforesting on a more widespread basis.
p.p.m., and by 2050 it could reach 500 to 700 p.p.m., higher than
Admittedly, trees are just a stopgap. Unless a tree is used for
it has been in millions of years.
lumber, it eventually dies and rots or is burned, releasing what-
But carbon dioxide, once thought to be exclusively responsi-
ever CO2 it has absorbed. But since the rapid pace of change may
ble for the greenhouse effect, is now known to cause only half the
be the greatest danger posed by global warming, stopgaps could
problem. The rest comes from other gases. Chlorofluorocarbons,
be important. If nothing else, reforestation will buy time to put
or CFCs, are not only destroyers of the stratosphere's ozone layer
other preventive measures into place.
but powerful greenhouse gases as well. So are nitrogen oxides,
Tree planting will have negligible impact, however, if people
which are pollutants spewed out of automobile exhausts and
continue to pump CO2 into the atmosphere at current rates.
power-plant smokestacks. Another greenhouse gas is methane,
While wood and fossil-fuel burning will never be eliminated,
the primary component of natural gas. Methane is also generat-
they can be cut down significantly. An immediate way to do so is
ed by bacteria living in the guts of cattle and termites, the muck
through conservation. When oil prices soared in the 1970s, in-
of rice paddies and the rotting garbage in landfills. Each of these
dustries responded by becoming much more energy efficient. But
sources is fostered by human activity-even the termites, which
the plunge in the price of oil from $36 per bbl. in 1982 to less than
thrive in the clearings left after tropical rain forests are cut down.
$12 per bbl. this fall has cooled the enthusiasm for conservation.
Humanity's contribution to the greenhouse effect comes from SO
Governments must rekindle that interest and boost energy sav-
many basic activities that man cannot realistically expect to stop
ing by setting or raising minimum efficiency standards for auto-
the process, only slow it down.
mobiles, appliances and other machinery.
Although developed countries waste the most energy, there
first step toward doing that is to ban the production of
A
are plenty of opportunities for conservation in the developing
CFCS, which are used to make plastic foam and as cool-
world, where energy-using equipment tends to be older and
ants in refrigerators and air conditioners. These gases
more inefficient. Third World conservation would not only help
account for an estimated 15% of the greenhouse effect.
slow greenhouse warming but also let countries save money by
Another strategy is to burn as much methane as possible. That
reducing dependence on energy imports. If the industrialized
adds CO2 to the air, but getting rid of the methane is well worth
countries expect cooperation, though, they should make avail-
it. Both gases trap heat, but as a greenhouse gas, methane traps
able at minimal cost the most advanced energy-saving technol-
20 times as much heat as carbon dioxide, molecule for molecule.
ogy, especially for power plants, and help finance the purchase.
Methane from cattle feedlots will be very difficult to collect, but
By far the most efficient and effective way to spur conserva-
the gas in garbage landfills is already being tapped and burned at
tion is to raise the cost of fossil fuels. Current prices fail to reflect
many sites around the U.S. At the Fresh Kills landfill on New
the very real environmental costs of pumping carbon dioxide
York City's Staten Island, for example, methane that would other-
into the air. The answer is a tax on CO2 emissions-or a CO2
wise have escaped into the air is being collected by a gas company
user fee, if that is a more palatable term. The fee need not raise a
and used to heat thousands of homes. The technique essentially in-
country's overall tax burden; it could be offset by reductions in
volves driving a pipe into the depths of the garbage, then trapping
income taxes or other levies.
the gas that rushes out. This should be done at all landfills.
Imposing a CO2 fee would not be as difficult as it sounds. It is
Another step that could be taken to counteract global warm-
easy to quantify how much CO2 comes from burning a gallon of
ing is to slow-and ideally stop-deforestation. But that is an
gasoline, a ton of coal or a cubic yard of natural gas. Most countries
enormously complex task, and so a simple companion strategy
already have gasoline taxes; similar fees, set according to the
should be adopted at the same time: the planting of trees, and
amount of CO2 produced, could be put on all fossil-fuel sources. At
plenty of them. to absorb CO2 from the air. "It surely has to be
the same time, companies could be given credits against their CO2
one of the most benign things we can do," said Gus Speth of the
taxes if they planted trees to take some of the CO2 out of the air.
38
TIME, JANUARY 2. 1989
PLANET OF THE YEAR
A user fee would have
Speth. If they drop to $1, solar
benefits beyond forcing a cut-
power will become competi-
back in CO2 emissions. The
fuels that generate carbon di-
nitrogen oxides and sulfur di-
CHUCK O'REAR-WEST LIGHT
tive. That could happen with-
out significant Government
oxide also generate other pol-
research support-but it will
lutants, like soot, along with
happen sooner with it.
Sometime early in the
oxide, the primary causes of
next century, solar enthusi-
acid rain. The CO2 tax would
asts hope to see vast tracts of
be a powerful incentive for
photovoltaic collectors pro-
consumers to switch from
viding cheap electricity that
high-CO2 fuels, such as coal
can be transmitted over long
and oil, to power sources that
distances. Alternatively, the
produce less CO2, notably
electricity could be used to
natural gas. When burned,
produce hydrogen from wa-
methane generates only half
ter. That could open up all
as much CO2 as coal, for ex-
sorts of possibilities. Cars, for
ample, in producing the same
example, could be redesigned
amount of energy.
to run on hydrogen, and that
Ultimately, though, the
SMALL WONDER: Wind farms like this one in Livermore,
would produce a dramatic re-
world must move away from
Calif., slow global warming only a little, but every bit helps
duction in CO2 emissions.
fossil fuels for most of its ener-
Nuclear power is more
gy needs. Said Berrien Moore, director of the Institute for the
controversial; until recently the mere mention of it made environ-
Study of the Earth, Oceans and Space at the University of New
mentalists blanch. They had good reason, considering the acci-
Hampshire: "Even if you cut emissions of CO2 in half, the atmo-
dents at Three Mile Island and Chernobyl, the problem of radio-
spheric concentration will keep going up. You're still adding CO2
active waste and the horror stories about U.S. weapons plants. But
faster than you're withdrawing it, SO the balance keeps rising."
the greenhouse effect is forcing some antinuclear activists to re-
Of all the known nonfossil energy sources, only two are far
think their position. "I was a strong opponent of the nuclear pro-
enough along in their development to be counted on: solar and
gram in France," said Brice Lalonde, France's Environment Un-
nuclear, neither of which generates any greenhouse gases at all.
der Secretary and a former presidential candidate on the
Solar power is especially attractive. It produces no waste, and it is
Ecologist Party ticket. "Now I am reassessing the whole thing."
inexhaustible. Not all solar power comes directly from the sun:
France gets more than 70% of its electricity from nuclear plants
both wind and hydroelectric power are solar, since wind is created
and has an impressive safety record.
by the sun's uneven warming of the atmosphere and since the wa-
Reactors in France, like all conventional reactors, depend for
ter that collects behind dams was originally rain, which in turn
their safety in part on the skill and ålertness of their operators. To
was water vapor evaporated by solar heating.
minimize the risk of human error, engineers have developed designs
But wind and hydroelectric power can be generated at only a
for much safer types of nuclear reactors. But while these reactors,
relatively few sites, and so governments should redouble financing
like experimental solar cells, show great promise, they are not yet
for research to develop efficient, low-cost photovoltaic power.
economical enough to go on-line in significant numbers. It should
Photovoltaic cells, which produce electric current when bathed in
therefore be a priority of governments to spend more money on re-
sunlight, were briefly in vogue during the energy crises of the
search aimed at lowering the cost of safe nuclear and solar power
1970s, and while public attention and Government funding have
and making them primary energy sources. Otherwise the global
waned, research into the technology has continued. "The capital
warming that results from overreliance on fossil fuels could produce
costs have come down from about $50 a peak watt to $5," said
an increasingly uncertain and potentially bleak future.
The Good News: Osage, lowa, Counts Kilowatts
The houses and businesses in
The folks in Osage save energy the
thermogram, a test that pinpoints places
Osage, a town of some 3,600
old-fashioned way: they plug leaky win-
where the most heat is escaping. More
people in northern Iowa, seem
dows, insulate walls and ceilings, replace
than half the town's property owners ac-
just like buildings anywhere
inefficient furnaces and wrap hot-water
cepted the offer.
else in small-town America.
heaters in blanket insulation. Since 1974,
Birdsall's conservation campaign
Only a close look reveals the difference.
the community has cut its natural-gas
still flourishes long after similar efforts
Examine, for example, the new insulated
consumption some 45% and reduced its
elsewhere have flagged. The utility re-
roof on the local hospital that shaves utili-
annual growth in electricity demand by
cently decided to give customers $15 fluo-
ty bills 20%. Or venture into the basement
more than half, to less than 3% a year.
rescent light bulbs, which use far less en-
of Steele's Super Valu grocery to see the
Much of the town's energy saving can
ergy than incandescent models. While
wall that owner Everett Steele built
be traced to the zeal of Weston Birdsall,
Birdsall's strategies are based on simple,
around his cooling compressors to cap-
general manager of Osage Municipal
widely known techniques, few cities or
ture heat, which is then pumped into the
Utilities. Looking back to 1972, when he
towns apply the methods as diligently as
store. Osage's model conservation pro-
took over the utility company, Birdsall re-
Osage does. "Why aren't more people do-
gram saved the town an estimated $1.2
calls, "That's about the time OPEC reared
ing this?" Birdsall asks. Maybe more of
million in energy costs in 1988 and made a
its ugly head. We had to do something."
them will if they come to realize that con-
modest but worthwhile contribution to-
Birdsall preached conservation door to
serving energy not only saves money but
ward slowing down global warming.
door, offering to give every building a free
also helps save the environment.
TIME. JANUARY 2, 1989
39
PLANET OF THE YEAR
can never be 100% safe against a meltdown. At its Idaho plant,
the Energy Department wants to try a different strategy. Rather
Nuclear Power
than construct a giant atomic pile that requires the cooling of large
quantities of concentrated fuel, designers propose to build a series
of four small-scale, modular reactors that use fuel in such small
Plots a Comeback
quantities that their cores could not àchieve meltdown tempera-
tures under any circumstances. The fuel would be packed inside
tiny heat-resistant ceramic spheres and cooled by inert helium
gas. Then the whole apparatus would be buried belowground.
But safety comes firs designs
Lawrence Lidsky, an M.I.T. professor of nuclear engineering,
calls this an "inherently safe" approach: it relies on the laws of na-
BY PHILIP ELMER-DEWITT
ture, rather than human intervention, to prevent a major accident.
The main problem is that the modest electrical output of
T
he primary purpose of the $3.6 billion nuclear plant that
smaller units makes them less economical, at least initially. But
the U.S. Department of Energy wants to build in Idaho
proponents argue that inherently safe plants should prove more
Falls, Idaho, is to help replenish America's dwindling sup-
cost-effective in the long run. Not only would expensive safety
ply of tritium, a vital component in atom bombs. But if approved
systems no longer be needed, but the units could be built on an
by Congress, the Idaho facility could play an even more impor-
assembly line and put into operation one module at a time, en-
tant role in the civilian use of nuclear power. For it is based on
abling utility companies to match operating capacity with de-
what proponents claim is a fail-safe technology, one that virtual-
mand for power.
ly eliminates the danger of a meltdown.
¡Critics are quick to point out that no nuclear reactor, either
Nuclear plants have the potential of providing abundant
water-cooled or gas-cooled, is totally safe as long as it produces
supplies of electricity without spewing pollutants into the atmo-
radioactive waste. The U.S. alone has generated thousands of
sphere. But the nuclear-power industry has failed to deliver on
metric tons of "hot" debris, including enough spent fuel to cover
that promise, at least in the U.S. Even before the accident at
a football field to a height of three feet. Said Sir Crispin Tickell,
Three Mile Island in 1979, the costs of making atomic power safe
British Permanent Representative to the United Nations: "The
were spiraling out of control. Since that episode, the industry has
fact that every year there is waste being produced that will take
been at a standstill.
the next three ice ages and beyond to become harmless is some-
What makes the failure all the more disturbing is that it was
thing that has deeply impressed the imagination."
unnecessary. Engineers have the know-how to build reactors
There are ways to cope with the waste problem. The
that are demonstrably safer
French have pioneered a pro-
than those now in operation.
cess called vitrification that in-
Moreover, that basic technol-
BUILDING BETTERNUKE.
volves mixing radioactive
ogy has been available for more
wastes with molten glass. Over
than 20 years. It was largely ig-
Standard water-cooled reactor
Proposed gas-cooled reactor
time, the hot mass should cool
nored in favor of a technol-
into a stable, if highly radioac-
ogy-the water-cooled reac-
Unless it is cooled by
Four separate reactor units
tive, solid that can be buried
tor-that had already been
constantly circulating water,
use fuel in such small
deep underground. The U.S. is
proved in nuclear submarines.
the fuel in the single large
quantities that it cannot melt
reactor can melt into an
also pursuing a strategy of
But water-cooled reactors are
down under any circumstances
uncontrollable mass
deep burial, but the process
particularly susceptible to the
Reactor building
has become ensnared in re-
rapid loss of coolant, which led
Nuclear
Containment
an
Underground
to the accidents at both Cher-
reactor
building
gional politics. Some sites that
containment
might have been suitable for
nobyl and Three Mile Island.
Steam
an underground storage facili-
All nuclear reactors work
generator
ty-the granite mountains of
by splitting large atoms into
New Hampshire, for exam-
smaller pieces, thus releasing
ple-were quickly ruled out
heat. The challenge is to keep
the core of nuclear fuel from
To guard against cooling
In the event of a power failure
because of opposition from
failures, the plant is equipped
or mechanical problem, the
nearby residents. The one site
overheating and melting into
with multiple sets of backup
helium gas will continue to
now being considered, a re-
an uncontrollable mass that can
pipes, valves and generators
cool the reactor: no backup is
mote mountain in southern
breach containment walls and
needed
Nevada, still faces formidable
release radioactivity. One way
Helium gas
political hurdles.
to prevent a meltdown is to
It is a problem that can, and
make sure the fuel is always
Core
Water
must, be solved. Third World
surrounded with circulating
countries do not have the tech-
coolant-ordinary water in
nical or managerial expertise to
most commercial reactors. To
deal with the complexities of
guard against mechanical fail-
Solid uranium fuel
Grains of fuel too small to
nuclear power. They will be
ures that could interrupt the
is packed in long
Uranium
reach temperatures higher
forced, at least for the foresee-
transfer of heat, most reactors
metal rods that
fuel rod
than 3,000°F are encapsulated
able future, to rely primarily on
employ multiple backup sys-
can melt at high
in ceramic spheres that can
environmentally harmful fossil
tems, a strategy known as "de-
temperatures,
withstand 3,300°
fense in depth."
releasing deadly
Fuel container
fuels. That is going to put pres-
radiation
Uranium
sure on the developed world to
The problem with defense in
depth is that no matter how
TIME Diagram by Joe Lertola
Coating
produce increasing amounts of
cheaper, safer nuclear power.
many layers of safety are built
-Reported by Glenn Garelik/
into a conventional reactor, it
Washington
TIME. JANUARY 2. 1989
41
PLANET OF THE YEAR
pleted by as much as 50% in some
spots. As a result of this disturbing
Deadly Danger
development, 24 nations, including
the U.S. and the Soviet Union, met in
Montreal two summers ago and agreed to
In a Spray Can
cut back on CFCs. The so-called Montreal
Protocol is designed to achieve a 35% net
reduction in worldwide CFC production by 1999.
That is not good enough, however. The same
destroying CFCs should be banned
stability that makes CFCs so safe in industrial use makes/them
extremely long-lived: some of the CFCs released today will still be
BY MICHAEL D. LEMONICK
in the atmosphere a century from now. Moreover, each atom of
chlorine liberated from a CFC can break up as many as 100,000
W
hen they were first synthesized in the late 1920s,
molecules of ozone
chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs for short) seemed too good
For that reason, governments should ensure the careful han-
to be true. These remarkable chemicals, consisting of
dling and recycling of the CFCs now in use. Said Senator Albert
chlorine, fluorine and carbon atoms, are nontoxic and inert,
Gore of Tennessee: "Much of what reaches the atmosphere is not
meaning they do not combine easily with other substances. Be-
coming from industrial sources. It's things like sloppy handling
cause they vaporize at low temperatures, CFCs are perfect as
of hamburger containers." When plastic-foam burger holders
coolants in refrigerators and propellant gases for spray cans.
are broken, the CFCs trapped inside escape. Discarded refrigera-
Since CFCs are good insulators, they are standard ingredients in
tors release CFCs as well, and, noted Gore, a significant part of
plastic-foam materials like Styrofoam. Best of all, the most com-
the U.S. contribution to CFC emissions comes from "draining
monly used CFCs are simple, and therefore cheap, to
automobile air conditioners and leáving the stuff in pans where it
manufacture.
boils off. Such release of CFCs could be prevented if consumers
There is only one problem. When they escape into the atmo-
and businesses were offered cash incentives to return broken-
sphere, most CFCs are murder on the environment. Each CFC
down air conditioners and refrigerators to auto and appliance
molecule is 20,000 times as efficient at trapping heat as is a mole-
dealers. Then the units could be sent back to the manufacturers
cule of CO2. So CFCs increase the greenhouse effect far out of pro-
so that the CFCs could be reused.
portion to their concentration in the air.
While recycling will help, the only sure way to save the ozone
A more immediate concern is that the chlorine released
is a complete ban on CFC manufacture, which should be phased
when CFC molecules break up destroys ozone molecules. The
out over the next five years. Fortunately, as the Montreal Protocol
ozone layer, located in the stratosphere, between 10 and 30 miles
demonstrates, banning CFCs will be far simpler than reducing
up, is vital to the well being of plants and animals. Ozone mole-
other dangerous gases. "The CFC producers are a small club of
cules, which consist of three oxygen atoms, absorb most of the ul-
countries," said Brice Lalonde, France's Environment Secretary.
traviolet radiation that comes from the sun. And ultraviolet is
But a ban could admittedly be economically disruptive to the en-
extremely dangerous to life on earth:
tire world: the annual market for CFCs is some
The small amount that does get through to the earth's sur-
$2.2 billion. The Soviet Union, which is a heavy user of CFCS, will
face inflicts plenty of damage: besides causing sunburn, the rays
have a particularly tough time phasing out the chemicals. "I agree
have been linked to cataracts
with the ban in principle," said
and weakened immune sys-
Vladimir Sakharov, a member
tems in humans and other ani-
of the Soviet State Committee
mals. Ultraviolet light carries
for Environmental Protection,
enough energy to damage DNA
270
"but in practice it will be ex-
and thus disrupt the workings
tremely difficult. Our economy
of cells, which is why excessive
is not as flexible as others."
exposure to sunlight is thought
To make the transition
to be the primary cause of
easier, chemical companies are
some skin cancers.
working hard to find practical
When scientists first
substitutes for CFCs. The most
warned in the 1970s that CFCs
promising approach so far is to
could attack ozone, the U.S. re-
use CFC family members that
sponded by banning their use
180
0
are chemically altered to make
in spray cans. (Manufacturers
them less dangerous to the en-
switched to such environmen-
vironment. The chlorine-free
tally benign substitutes as bu-
substance HFC-134a, for exam-
tane, the chemical burned in
ple, is most likely to be used in
cigarette lighters.) But the rest
refrigeration devices.
of the world continued to use
The major drawback to CFC
CFC-based aerosol cans, and
substitutes is the high cost of
overall CFC production kept
making them. It may be that un-
growing. The threat became
90
til better manufacturing tech-
far clearer in 1985, when re-
niques are developed, consum-
searchers reported a "hole" in
OZONE HOLE: In this computer-colored image,
ers will have to pay more for
the ozone layer over Antarcti-
taken by satellite in October 1987, the black and
affected products. The prospect
ca. Although the size of the
pink colors over Antarctica show the areas of
is not a pleasant one, but it is a
hole varies with the seasons
greatest depletion. The extent of the hole varies
small price to pay for curbing the
and weather patterns, at times
with weather patterns.
greenhouse effect and saving the
Antarctic ozone has been de-
life-preserving ozone layer.
42
TIME. JANUARY 2. 1989
PLANET OF THE YEAR
GLASS LANDSCAPE: Bottles piled at a dump in West Germany, where up to 15% of landfills are deemed dangerous
WASTE
A Stinking Mess
THE PROBLEM:: Throwaway societies befoul their land and seas
BY JOHN LANGONE
of the growing mountains of refuse, much of it poisonous, that
now bloat the world's landfills. Indiscriminate dumping of any
Like the journey of the spec-
kind-in a New Jersey swamp, on a Haitian beach or in the In-
M. M.BAYTOFF-BLACK ST STAR
tral Flying Dutchman, the
dian Ocean-simply shifts potentially hazardous waste from one
legendary ship condemned to
place to another. The practice only underscores the enormity of
ply the seas endlessly, the
what has become an urgent global dilemma: how to reduce the
voyage of the freighter Peli-
gargantuan waste by-products of civilization without endanger-
cano seemed destined to last
ing human health or damaging the environment.
forever. For more than two
Scarcely a country on earth has been spared the scourge.
The notorious Pelicano at sea
years, it sailed around the
From the festering industrial landfills of Bonn to the waste-
world seeking a port that
choked sewage drains of Calcutta, the trashing goes on. A poi-
would accept its cargo. Permission was denied and for good rea-
sonous chemical soup, the product of coal mines and metal
son: the Pelicano's hold was filled with 14,000 tons of toxic incin-
smelters, roils Polish waters in the Bay of Gdansk. Hong Kong,
erator ash that had been loaded onto the ship in Philadelphia in
with 5.7 million people and 49,000 factories within its 400 sq. mi.,
September 1986. It was not until last October that the Pelicano
dumps 1,000 tons of plastic a day-triple the amount thrown
brazenly dumped 4,000 lbs. of its unwanted cargo off a Haitian
away in London. Stinking garbage and human excrement de-
beach, then slipped back out to sea, trailing fresh reports that it
spoils Thailand's majestic River of Kings. Man's effluent is more
was illegally deep-sixing the rest of its noxious cargo. A month
than an assault on the senses. When common garbage is burned,
later, off Singapore, its captain announced that he had unloaded
it spews dangerous gases into the air. Dumped garbage and in-
the ash in a country he refused to name.
dustrial waste can turn lethal when corrosive acids, long-lived
The long voyage of the Pelicano is a stark symbol of the envi-
organic materials and discarded metals leach out of landfills into
ronmental exploitation of poor countries by the rich. It also rep-
groundwater supplies, contaminating drinking water and pollut-
resents the single most irresponsible and reckless way to get rid
ing farmland.
44
TIME, JANUARY 2, 1989
PLANET OF THE YEAR
The U.S., with its af-
bage is 30% to 40% liquid.
fluence and industrial
Even in highly indus-
might, is by far the most
trialized countries, there
profligate offender. Each
year Americans throw
and 220 million tires.
ALON PRESS IMAGES
are formidable social ob-
stacles to waste manage-
away 16 billion disposable
ment: not-in-my-backyard
diapers, 1.6 billion pens, 2
resistance by many com-
billion razors and blades
munities to new disposal
sites and incinerators is all
They discard enough alu-
too common. In the U.S.
minum to rebuild the en-
80% of solid waste is now
tire U.S. commercial air-
dumped into 6,000 land-
line fleet every three
fills. Their number is
months. And the country
shrinking fast: in the past
is still struggling to clean
five years, 3,000 dumps
up the mess created by the
have been closed; by 1993
indiscriminate dumping
some 2,000 more will be
of toxic waste. Said David
filled to the brim and shut.
Rall, director of the Na-
"We have a real capacity
tional Institute of Envi-
crunch coming up," said J.
ronmental Health Sci-
Winston Porter, an assis-
ences: "In the old days,
tant administrator of the
waste was disposed of
Environmental Protection
anywhere you wanted-
Agency. In West Germa-
an old lake, a back lot, a
ny 35,000 to 50,000 landfill
swamp."
sites have been declared
How to handle all this
potentially dangerous be-
waste? Many countries
cause they may threaten
have made a start by lo-
vital groundwater supplies.
cating and cleaning up
What can be done to
acres of landfills and la-
HAZARDOUS DUTY: Cleaning up toxic chemicals in New Jersey
prevent the world from
goons of liquid waste. But
wallowing in waste? Most
few nations have been
important is to reduce
able to formulate adequate strategies to control the volume of
trash at its source. At the consumer level, one option is to charge
waste produced. Moreover, there are precious few methods of ef-
households a garbage-collection fee according to the amount of
fective disposal, and each has its own drawbacks. As landfills
refuse they produce. Manufacturers too need more prodding.
reach capacity, new sites become scarcer and more expensive.
Higher fines, taxes and stricter enforcement might force offend-
Incinerators, burdensome investments for many communities,
ing industries to curb waste. Industry must also re-examine its
also have serious limitations: contaminant-laden ash residue it-
production processes. Such an approach already has a successful
self requires a dump site. Rising consumer demands for more
track record. The Minnesota Mining and Manufacturing Co. has
throwaway packaging add to the volume.
cut waste generation in half by using fewer toxic chemicals, sep-
Few developing countries have regulations to control the
arating out wastes that can be reused and substituting alternative
output of hazardous waste, and even fewer have the technology
raw materials for hazardous substances. 3M's savings last year:
or the trained personnel to dispose of it. Foreign contractors in
an astonishing $420 million. In the Netherlands, Duphar, a large
many African or Asian countries still build plants without in-
chemical concern, adopted a new manufacturing process that
cluding costly waste-disposal systems. Where new technology is
decreased by 95% the amount of waste created in making a
available, it is too often inappropriate. In Lagos, Nigeria, five
pesticide.
new incinerator plants stand idle because they can only treat
Recycling, of course, is perhaps the best-known way to re-
garbage containing less than 20% water; most of the city's gar-
duce waste. Some countries do it better than others. Japan now
What
1.
Raise the price of garbage collection and toxic-waste removal and the penalties
for improper disposal as incentives for companies and households to curb the prob-
Nations
lem at the source. Households should be charged according to the amount of garbage
they produce.
Should
2.
To encourage recycling, sharply increase the variety of containers that can be returned
Do
to stores or other collection points for cash. Raise the reward for returned items. Require
households to sort garbage into recyclable and nonrecyclable items.
3.
Increase funding for the testing of chemicals to determine their toxicity and cancer-
causing potential.
4.
Ban ocean dumping.
5.
Ban the export of waste.
TIME, JANUARY 2, 1989
45
PLANET OF THE YEAR
TRY RECYCLING
GREENPEACE
NEXT-TIME
DENNIS STAR
LOOKING FOR A HOME: Draped with a protest banner, an unwanted garbage barge floats off New York
recycles more than 50% of its trash, Western Europe around
than 30% of its unrecycled wastes to waste-to-energy facilities.
30%. The U.S. does not fare nearly so well: only 10% of Ameri-
Knowledge of the whole refuse cycle is imperative. Of the
can garbage-or 16 million tons a year-is recycled, and only
more than 48,000 chemicals listed by the EPA, next to nothing is
ten states have mandatory recycling laws.
currently known about the toxic effects of almost 38,000. Fewer
Some experts believe local governments should hike cash
than 1,000 have been tested for acute effects, and only about 500
refunds to people who return disposable items. Said Nicholas
for their cancer-causing, reproductive or mutagenic effects.
Robinson, who teaches environmental law at Pace University
Funding must be increased for such research.
School of Law: "If we could persuade legislatures to increase
In the last analysis, the waste crisis is almost always most
the recycling price for a bottle from, say, a nickel to maybe a
effectively attacked close to the source. There should be an in-
quarter or 50e, then that bottle would be a very valuable
ternational ban on the export of environmentally dangerous
commodity."
waste, especially to countries without the proven technology to
But even with more efficient recycling, there will still be ref-
dispose of it safely. In the past two years, some 3 million tons
use. That means landfills and incinerators, however harmful their
of hazardous waste have been transported from the U.S. and
emissions, will be needed as part of well-managed waste-disposal
Western Europe on ships like the Pelicano to countries in Afri-
systems for the foreseeable future. Where possible, landfills
ca and Eastern Europe. Observed Saad M. Baba, third secre-
should be fitted with impermeable clay or synthetic liners to con-
tary in the Nigerian, mission to the U.N.: "International dump-
tain toxic materials, and with pumps to drain liquid waste for
ing is the equivalent of declaring war on the people of a
treatment and disposal elsewhere. Landfill waste can also be
country." And if such wastes continue to proliferate, man will
burned to generate electricity, but the U.S. uses only 6% of its rub-
have all but declared war on the earth's environment-and
bish to produce energy. By comparison, West Germany sends more
thus, in the end, on his own richest heritage.
The Good News: Japan Gives Trash a Second Chance
With a barely audible whoosh,
want not" a national policy. Last year
Prudent waste management would
the large doors at the entrance
50% of Japan's wastepaper, 55% of its
not be possible without the disciplined
open to a spacious glass-walled
glass bottles and 66% of its beverage and
cooperation of the Japanese people. Be-
hall filled with lush green
food cans were recycled. Much of the re-
fore putting out their garbage, they reli-
plants and the soothing sound
maining trash was turned into fertilizers,
giously follow such requirements as sepa-
of a trickling miniature waterfall. But the
fuel gases and recycled metals.
rating bottles from cans and burnables
sleek municipal building in Machida, a
Behind the success are Japan's recy-
like paper from nonburnables such as
bustling city in central Japan, is not a pris-
cling technology and systematic garbage
glass and hard plastic. People who want
tine botanical garden. The enticing en-
collection. The Machida plant can deal with
quick disposal of old refrigerators or TV
trance is merely the façade of a $65 million
almost any category of recyclable refuse:
sets need only make a phone call to the
facility built to handle a dirty job: recy-
burnables, nonburnables, bottles, cans, du-
sanitation department for a special pick-
cling the wastes of the city's 340,000 resi-
rables such as furniture and refrigerators,
up. Observes Yumimaru Nakada, a se-
dents. "We collect roughly 100,000 tons of
and "harmfuls" like batteries. Depending
nior official in Tokyo's public sanitation
garbage a year and convert it back into
on their category, the castoffs are filtered,
bureau: "Living in a crowded situation,
valuable materials," says a smiling Keni-
burned, crushed or otherwise treated on
the Japanese have come to learn that gar-
chi Usui, a city waste-management offi-
their way to becoming reusable materials.
bage recycling is no laughing matter."
cial. He has good reason to be boastful. Ja-
Steel scrap is separated from other garbage
And it certainly pays to recycle.
pan, which is fast becoming the world's
by huge magnets. Much of the recycling is
From 100,000 tons of typical Japanese
premier industrial power, is álso in the
computer-controlled: only 45 people work
garbage comes enough wood pulp to
forefront of effective waste management.
in shifts to run the round-the-clock
make a roll of toilet paper that would
The country has made "waste not.
operation.
wrap around the earth ten times.
TIME. JANUARY 2. 1989
47
PLANET OF THE YEAR
CRUSHING NUMBERS: Cairo's crowds herald a projection that Egypt's population will nearly double, to 103 million, by 2020
OVERPOPULATION
Too Many Mouths
THE PROBLEM: Swarms of peopl running of food and space
BY ANASTASIA TOUFEXIS
Ultimately, no problem may be more threatening to the
earth's environment than the proliferation of the human species.
c
lose to the Zócalo, Mexico City's great central square,
Today the planet holds more than 5 billion people. During the
lies the barrio of Morelos, a vast warren of dusty, pot-
next century, world population will double, with 90% of that
holed streets and narrow entryways. The passages lead
growth occurring in poorer, developing countries. African na-
to a gloomy world. On each side of a roofless patio is a
tions are expanding at the fastest rate. During the next 30 years,
ten-room jumble. Each room holds a family; each family aver-
for example, the population of Kenya (annual growth rate: 4%)
ages five people. The only bathrooms-two to serve 100 peo-
will jump from 23 million to 79 million; Nigeria's population
ple-are located at the back of the patio. The odor of grease and
(growth rate: 3%) will soar from 112 million to 274 million. Ex-
sewage permeates the air. Flies buzz relentlessly. The people
pansion is slower in Brazil, China, India and Indonesia, but in
who live here are considered lucky.
those countries the sheer size of existing populations translates
In the shantytowns on Mexico City's outskirts, tens of thou-
into a huge increase in people.
sands of people shelter in huts made of cardboard with alumi-
In the poorest countries, growth rates are outstripping the na-
num roofs. There is no running water and no sanitation. The
tional ability to provide the bare necessities-housing, fuel and food.
stench is overpowering: garbage and human waste heap up in
Living trees are being chopped down for fuel, grasslands overgrazed
piles. Rats roam freely, like stray domestic animals.
by livestock, and croplands overplowed by desperate farmers. Hor-
To the more privileged, those scenes look like a science-fic-
rifying images of starvation in northeastern Africa have captured
tion vision of civilization's breakdown, perhaps after a nuclear
world attention in the past decade. In India, according to govern-
war. In fact, Mexico City has been described as the anteroom to
ment reports, 37% of the people cannot buy enough food to sustain
an ecological Hiroshima. With 20 million residents-up from 9
themselves. Warned Shri B.B. Vohra, vice chairman of the Hima-
million only 20 years ago-the Mexican capital is considered the
chal Pradesh state land-use board in northern India: "We may be
most populous urban center on earth. Mexico City has been
well on the way to producing a subhuman kind of race where people
struck not by military weapons but by a population bomb.
do not have enough energy to deal with their problems."
48
TIME. JANUARY 2, 1989
vices be increased to $8 billion by the year 2000. The increase in
OWEN
funds could shave projected world population from 10 billion to 8
billion over the next 60 years. However, few modern contracep-
tive methods are ideally suited to the daily lives of Third World
citizens. Two-thirds of the 60 million users of condoms, dia-
phragms and sponges live in the industrialized world. Men in de-
veloping countries frequently view condoms as a threat to their
masculine image; women often find diaphragms impractical
since clean water for washing the device is scarce.
The most popular form of population control in developing
countries is sterilization. Some 98 million women and 35 million
men around the world have resorted to that permanent solution.
The other current mainstay is ábortion, which the Worldwatch
Institute's Brown called "a reflection of unmet family-planning
needs." An estimated 28 million abortions are performed in
Third World nations annually, and an additional 26 million in
industrial countries. About half are illegal.
New forms of birth control are desperately needed, and a few
are slowly appearing. Last year a French pharmaceutical firm
introduced RU 486, a drug that helps induce a relatively safe
miscarriage when given to a woman in the early stages of preg-
nancy. Another recent arrival is Norplant, steroid-filled capsules
that are embedded in a woman's arm and deliver contraceptive
protection for five years. The implant is approved for use in
twelve countries, including China, Thailand and Indonesia.
But progress is too slow. Additional spending on contracep-
tive research and development is badly needed. In 1972 global
spending was estimated at $74 million annually, a paltry sum
compared with many Third World military budgets. The fund-
ing in 1983 was just $57 million. One reason for the decrease was
the Reagan Administration's antiabortion policy. U.S. contribu-
tions to international population-assistance programs declined
20% between 1985 and 1987, to about $230 million.
Prospects are so dire that some environmentalists urge the
Bruce Wilcox, president of the Institute for Sustainable De-
world to adopt the goal of cutting in half the earth's population
velopment, an environmental-research organization based in
growth rate during the next decade. "That means a call for a
Palo Alto, Calif., declared that solutions to the population chal-
two-child family for the world as a whole," explained Lester
lenge will demand "fundamental changes in society." Ingrained
Brown, president of the Worldwatch Institute. "In some coun-
cultural attitudes that promote high birthrates will have to be
tries there may be a need to set a goal of one child per family."
challenged. Many families in poor agrarian societies, for exam-
That is a daunting challenge. During the past decade, many of
ple, see children as a source of labor and a hedge against poverty
the world's poor nations condemned the notion of family plan-
in old age. People need to be taught that with lower infant mor-
ning as an imperialist and racist scheme touted by the developed
tality, fewer offspring can provide the same measure of security.
world. Yet today virtually all Third World countries are commit-
In some societies, numerous progeny are viewed as symbols of vi-
ted to limiting population growth.
rility. In Kenya's Nyanza province, a man named Denja boasts
But the effort needs to be speeded up. For starters, contra-
that he has fathered 497 children.
ceptive information and devices should be available to every
Of all entrenched values, religion presents perhaps the great-
man or woman on earth who wants them. According to surveys
est obstacle to population control. Roman Catholics have fought
by the United Nations and other organizations, fully half the 463
against national family-planning efforts in Mexico, Kenya and
million married women in developing countries (excluding Chi-
the Philippines, while Muslim fundamentalists have done the
na) do not want more children. Yet many have little or no access
same in Iran, Egypt and Pakistan. Still, religious objections need
to effective methods of birth control, such as the Pill and the in-
not entirely thwart population planning. Where such resistance
trauterine device (IUD). The World Bank estimates that making
is encountered, vigorous campaigns should be mounted to pro-
birth control readily available on a global basis would require
mote natural birth-control. techniques, including the rhythm
that the $3 billion now spent annually on family-planning ser-
method and fertility delay through breast feeding.
What
1.
Make birth-control information and devices available to every man and woman.
Nations
2.
Expand educational and employment opportunities for women, which will stimulate
their interest in family planning.
Should
3.
Where religious preferences inhibit the use of artificial contraception, provide educa-
tion in natural birth-control techniques.
4.
Increase funding for research and development of new methods of birth control that
are easier to use or more acceptable in some cultures than current techniques.
TIME, JANUARY 2, 1989
49
PLANET OF THE YEAR
of married women practice birth control.
ALON
Ultimately, slowing the population jugger-
naut will depend on the ability of family-plan-
ning experts to create well-tailored programs
for different societies and even for different
segments of societies. But first, governments
will have to raise public awareness and rally
support for population control with a cohesive
message about the dangers of rampant growth.
India, one of the first countries to adopt a fam-
ily-planning program, some 30 years ago,
failed to forge a national will for the task, and
the population is now growing at 2% a year.
In contrast, China has galvanized its peo-
ple behind a huge population-planning effort.
Still, its program demonstrates just how diffi-
cult-and risky-social tinkering can be. The
nation launched its "one-family, one-child"
policy in 1979. The aim: to contain popula-
CONTRACEPTION CONSENSUS: China has cut its growth rate in half through
tion at 1.2 billion by the year 2000. In pursuit
a program of classes-like this one in Beijing-and rewards and penalties
of that goal, local authorities have offered
such incentives as a monthly stipend until the
If there is a single key to population control in developing
sole child turns 14 and better housing. Penalties for violating the
countries, experts agree, it lies in improving the social status of
policy have included dismissal from government jobs and fines of
women. Third World women often have relatively few political
up to a year's wages for urban workers. China's effort has had
or legal rights, and not many receive schooling that prepares
some distressing consequences. Women have been coerced into
them for roles outside the home. Said Robert Berg, president of
having abortions, and there have been reports of female infanti-
the International Development Conference: "Expanding educa-
cide by parents determined that their one child should be a boy.
tional and employment opportunities for women is necessary for
Moreover, officials have acknowledged that exceptions to the
permanently addressing the population issue."
one-child rule have been frequently condoned, especially in rural
The effect of special programs for women has been demonstrat-
areas. In fact, only 19% of Chinese couples have one child. Beijing
ed in Bangladesh. In 1975 the government launched a proj-
has announced that the nation will miss its target: the country's
ect in which associations of rural village women were provided with
projected population in the year 2000 is 1.27 billion.
start-up loans for launching small businesses, such.as making pot-
Yet for all its failings, China's effort has produced results.
tery, raising poultry and running grocery stores. About 123,000
The population growth rate, once among the highest in the
women are currently enrolled in the cooperative. At weekly meet-
world, has been slashed in half, to 1.4%. And the Chinese are de-
ings, health-care and contraceptive information are distributed
termined to reduce the rate still further. The same formidable
among members. An extraordinary 75% of the co-op members of
task will face other developing countries as they confront the
childbearing age use contraceptives, while nationwide only 35%
population bomb. But confront it they must.
The Good News: Thailand Controls a Baby Boom
He is a champion of con-
mission. Today some 70% of Thailand's
helped couples move on to more sophisti-
doms, a pusher of the Pill, a
couples practice family planning. Mechai
cated forms of contraception. He put
voice for vasectomies-and a
estimates that without his program Thai-
birth-control "supermarkets" in bus ter-
major reason that the annual
land's population, currently 54 million,
minals, offering Pills, IUDs and spermi-
rate of Thailand's population
would have grown to 64 million.
cidal foam as well as condoms. Mechai
growth was cut in half, from 3.2% to
He began by touting condoms-now
also opened vasectomy clinics across the
1.6%, in just 15 years. And while he
commonly called mechais in Thailand.
country, including one in Bangkok's
sometimes comes across as an energetic
"Wherever there was a crowd, we would
massage-parlor district. Each year on the
public relations man with a bagful of
be there handing them out," says Me-
King's birthday, the P.D.A. offers free va-
gimmicks, Mechai Viravaidya, 47, the
chai. "Movie theaters, traffic jams-we
sectomies (normal price: $20).
engineer of Thailand's remarkable drive
tried to turn every event into a family-
The campaign has brought about a
to curb its birthrate, regards population
planning session." With hu-
profound change in the way
control as serious business.
mor and showmanship, Me-
Thais look at their families.
In 1974. Mechai, a former govern-
chai has judged condom-
The proof is in millions of
ment economist, launched a private
blowing contests and has
people like Boonya Nuen-
nonprofit organization. now known as
shown how to use condoms as
mun, 36, a farmer in Korat
the Population and Community Devel-
tourniquets. Each New
province. Though his par-
opment Association (P.D.A.), to foster
Year's Eve, the P.D.A. gives
ents had nine children,
family planning and distribute birth-
traffic police boxes of pro-
Nuenmun says, "I've got
control devices. With growing encour-
phylactics to distribute in a
two daughters, and that's
agement and financial support from the
"cops and rubbers" program.
enough already. I've been
government, the Bangkok-based P.D.A.
While continuing to hand
practicing birth control for
has made population control a national
out condoms, Mechai has
Champion of condoms
years."
50
TIME. JANUARY 2. 1989
PLANET OF THE YEAR
A Global Bargain
Far more difficult than signing interna
tional treaties will be finding the money
to make them work. The impoverished
Third World countries, burdened with
debt, cannot afford expensive environ
mental projects without outside help. Nor
is the U.S. ina position to fund a new eco-
logical Marshall Plan on its own. Here are
the elements ofa north-south deal that
could pool the financial resources of the
industrialized world and channel them
REDUCED MILITARY SPENDING: The U.S. and the Soviet
into sustainable development plans for
Union could cut back their nuclear and conventional
the poorer countries.
forces, shrinking their defense budgets and freeing
funds for domestic and foreign environmental programs.
Hands Across the Sea
Rich and and south,nations common disaster
BY THOMAS A. SANCTON
en some important initiatives. In 1972 the U.N. organized the
landmark Stockholm conference, which set up the United Na-
t is easy to draw up a plan of action for protecting the earth.
tions Environment Program. It was under UNEP's sponsorship
But that plan will fail unless it is forged with international
that 24 countries signed the 1987 Montreal Protocol, calling for a
fellowship and carried out on a global scale. How much good
reduction in the output of ozone-destroying chlorofluorocarbons.
can one country do by reducing carbon-dioxide emissions if an-
There have also been proposals to enhance UNEP's role as a sort
other nation offsets that with an increased output of CO2? How
of intergovernmental superagency on environmental questions.
can one country keep its beaches clean if its neighbor down the
Paralleling the U.N.'s efforts, multilateral financial institu-
coast dumps sewage or syringes into the sea? "On most environ-
tions have a crucial role to play. The World Bank, which lends
mental questions, the nation-state is obsolete," said Pace Univer-
money for Third World development projects, was long criti-
sity's Nicholas Robinson. "We have to talk about multinational
cized by environmental groups for backing large, ecologically
cooperation."
unsound programs-a cattle-raising scheme in Botswana that
The first goal of that cooperative effort should be to gather
led to overgrazing, for example. During the past few years, how-
the information needed to fashion effective policies. "We've got
ever, the World Bank has been seeking to factor environmental
to get the earth in intensive care, to start to monitor the vital signs
concerns into its programs. One product of this new approach is
of the planet," said John Eddy of the University Corporation for
an environmental action plan for Madagascar. The 20-year
Atmospheric Research in Boulder. This could be done by launch-
plan, which will be drawn up jointly with the World Wide Fund
ing an International Earthwatch Program, possibly under the ae-
for Nature, aims at heightening public awareness of environ-
gis of the United Nations, to coordinate multinational research
mental issues, setting up and managing protected areas and en-
projects and centralize essential data on the state of the world.
couraging sustainable development. Similar aims should also
Such an umbrella program could pool the results of hundreds of
guide the lending policies of the International Monetary Fund,
existing research efforts. A prime candidate for this program
regional development banks and bilateral assistance programs.
would be the Mission to Planet Earth, recommended by former
Much of the current environmental crisis is rooted in, and
astronaut Sally Ride, which would use NASA facilities to study the
exacerbated by, the widening gap between rich and poor na-
earth from space. In addition to improving knowledge of the
tions. Industrialized countries contain only 23% of the world's
earth's ills, an International Earthwatch Program could provide
population, yet they control 80% of the world's goods and are
the basis for a widespread awareness-building campaign aimed
also responsible for the bulk of its pollution. On the other hand, it
at preparing public opinion for the sacrifices and life-style
is the developing countries that are hardest hit by overpopula-
changes that will be necessary in the coming decades. Environ-
tion, malnutrition and disease. As these nations struggle to catch
mental education programs should be immediately introduced
up with the developed world, a vicious circle begins: their efforts
into schools and workplaces around the world, and government
at rapid industrialization poison' their cities, while their attempts
leaders should bring these issues into the heart of political debate.
to boost agricultural production often result in the destruction of
But research and education are no substitutes for concrete
their forests and the depletion of their soils.
action. The world community must move promptly toward com-
The greatest obstacle to economic and environmental im-
prehensive treaties to protect the air, soil and water. A frame-
provements in the developing countries is their mammoth for-
work for the effort exists within the U.N., which has already tak-
eign debt. Collectively, the Third World owes $1.2 trillion to the
54
TIME, JANUARY 2, 1989
NISSAN
BURDEN SHARING: U.S. allies like Japan and West
AID FOR THE THIRD WORLD: In exchange for
Germany would no longer be under pressure to raise
foreign funds, the developing nations would
military spending and could contribute to global se-
agree to curb deforestation and adopt other
curity by increasing aid to the developing countries.
responsible environmental policies.
banks and governments of industrialized countries. A new
ty" to include "the issues of population, environment and sustain-
World Bank report estimates that in 1988 the developing coun-
able development." Yet the U.S., the world's largest debtor, can
tries made net payments of $43 billion to the industrial nations,
no longer supply the bulk of aid to the Third World. Nor can the
up from $38 billion in 1987. How can the rich nations expect
economically strapped Soviet Union provide much financial
poor countries to launch environmental programs while strug-
help.
gling to pay off those crippling loans? Clearly, the Third World's
That leaves Japan, now the world's most financially powerful
debt payments will have to be lightened or postponed. The best
country, with a heavy responsibility for taking a leading role in
way of doing that seems to be using debt forgiveness as leverage
bankrolling solutions to the environmental crisis. Japan has long
for winning environmental concessions.
shied away from assuming a major place in international affairs
One approach that has already been pursued successfully on a
because of its militaristic adventures of the 1930s and '40s, but as
small scale is the so-called debt-for-nature swaps. Conceived by
Prime Minister Noboru Takeshita has made clear, his country re-
the Smithsonian Institution's Thomas Lovejoy in 1984, these in-
alizes its international duty and is willing to shoulder it.
novative deals often involve the cooperation of governments,
Japan's foreign aid appropriations of more than $10 billion
bankers and conservation groups. In a typical debt-for-nature
in 1988 outstripped U.S. outlays, and Tokyo has increased its
swap earlier this year, the World Wildlife Fund, a nonprofit orga-
contributions to the World Bank and other environment-con-
nization based in Washington, bought $1 million worth of Ecua-
scious lending institutions. The Takeshita government is willing
doran debt held by Bankers Trust at the discounted price of
to give more, but its efforts have ironically been hampered by the
$354,500. The bank was happy to get the troublesome loan off its
U.S., which is reluctant to give the Japanese a greater say in run-
books, while the World Wildlife Fund gained the power to im-
ning these international groups. One solution might be to set up a
prove that country's environment. The fund accomplishes this
new financial entity, an International Bank for Environmental
by transferring, the loan payments to Fundación Natura, a
Protection, in which the Japanese could have a major responsi-
conservation group in Ecuador. Fundación Natura, in turn, uses
bility for both funding and management.
the money to protect and maintain national parks and wildlife
America, for its part, is at a turning point. The Reagan Admin-
preserves.
istration, with its poor record
However it is accom-
on environmental issues, is
plished, a greater share of the
Nobel for a Noble Cause
coming to a close. President-
world's capital will have to
elect Bush, who turned the pol-
flow into developing countries.
lution of Boston Harbor into a
What they need, said Senator
P
hysicists and chemists can earn the ultimate recogni-
successful campaign issue, has
Albert Gore, is a new Mar-
tion: a Nobel Prize. Why not accord the same honor to
an opportunity to show that he
shall Plan for economic devel-
environmental scientists? At the TIME conference, the pro-
is serious bout saving the plan-
opment and environmental
posal was backed by everyone from U.S. Senator Albert
et-even after the election. He
preservation. But where will
Gore to Vasili Peskov, a correspondent for the Moscow
sent out an encouraging signal
the money come from? For
newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda. Peskov suggested that
last week by naming veteran
starters, the U.S. and the Sovi-
the first environmental Nobel be given posthumously to Ra-
conservationist William Reilly
et Union could reduce military
chel Carson, whose 1962 book Silent Spring helped alert the
to head the Environmental
spending in order to boost aid
world to the pollution threat.
Protection Agency. Reilly, 48,
for environmental programs.
Alfred Nobel's will set up five' awards:
president of the World Wildlife
Nobel laureate Murray Gell-
physics, chemistry, medicine or physiolo-
Fund, promised a "new and
Mann, a professor of theoreti-
gy, literature and peace. But that limita-
constructive course" on envi-
cal physics at the California
tion was overcome in 1968, when Swe-
ronmental problems. It is none
Institute of Technology, ar-
den's Central Bank financed a separate
too soon.
-Reported by Barry
gued that the superpowers
economics prize in memory of Nobel.
Hillenbrand/Tokyo and Richard
should redefine "global securi-
Hornik/Washington
TIME, JANUARY 2, 1989
63
PLANET OF THE YEAR
1. Raise the Gasoline Tax
What
A gallon of unleaded gasoline, which costs roughly 95c, is nearly a third
The U.S.
cheaper now than it was eight years ago. When inflation is taken into ac-
count, the price decline is closer to 50%. Raising the federal gasoline tax
Should
by 50c per gal., from 9c to 59c, over the next five years would renew driv-
ers' interest in fuel conservation.
Do
2.
Toughen Auto Fuel-Efficiency airements
Federal regulations require that automakers produce fleets of cars with an
The U.S. has made significant
average fuel efficiency of 26 m.p.g. The Government originally set a fuel-
strides in pollution control and
efficiency target of 27.5 m.p.g. for 1986, but the Reagan Administration
energy conservation during the
allowed the car companies to postpone that goal. The new Administration
past 15 years, but the country
should titute the 27.5 m.p.g. requirement and then gradually raise it to
remains the world's biggest user'
45 m.p.g. by the year 2000.
of natural resources and a major
despoiler of the global
3. Encourage Waste Recycling
environment. Because of the
The Federal Government should set national goals and standards for recy-
size of its economy, the U.S.
cling programs but leave their implementation to state and local agencies.
consumes one-fourth of the
As an immediate first step, the President and Congress should require
world's energy each year. Yet,
federal agencies to increase steadily their use of recycled paper products.
for a given amount of energy, the
U.S. produces less than half as
4. Promote Natural-Gas Usage
much economic output as Japan
and West Germany. Meanwhile,
Far more abundant than anyone thought a decade ago, natural gas is the
the commitment to reduce
cleanest hydrocarbon fuel available. But in many cases, utilities that wish
pollution has flagged. Although
to switch from coal-fired power generation to gas-fired must go through a
the U.S. accounts for less than
lengthy process to obtain a federal permit. Such regulations, which inhibit
5% of the global population, it
the increased use of natural gas, should be eased.
generates 15% of the world's
sulfur dioxide emissions and
5. Encourage Debt-for-Nature Swaps
25% of nitrogen oxides and
The U.S. opposes all government-subsidized debt relief for Third World
carbon dioxide. Each American
countries. At a minimum, federal regulators should encourage U.S. banks
produces an average of 3½ lbs.
to participate in programs that reduce debt in exchange for steps taken by
of trasha day..
debtor nations to protect tropical rain forests and other resources.
When energy was expensive,
Americans treated it that way.
6. Support Family Planning
Between 1973 and 1985, when
In 1984 the Reagan Administration cut off U.S. aid to the two major inter-
the price of oil surged, U.S.,
national family-planning organizations. Reason: the United Nations Fund
per capita energy consumption
for Population Activities and the International Planned Parenthood Feder-
fell'1 2% and the average
ation have been accused of assisting some local population agencies that
amount of goods andiservices
provide or pay for abortions. Unless the growth in the world population is
generated per person 17%
slowed, it will be impossible to make serious progress on any environmen-
In the few years, however,
tal issue. The U.S. should immediately restore the aid it withdrew.
energy use has risen as the
price has declined. Americans,
7.
Ratify the Law of the Sea
who ownmore than1 135 million
The U.S. has never ratified the 1982 U.N. Convention on Law of the Sea,
cars, or about third of the
which sought to regulate mining and other commercial development. The
world's total, have been driving
Administration argues that the treaty interferes with private exploitation
more and have resumed their
of the sea. That ideological issue should be put aside so that the U.S. can
love affairwith large gas
exercise global leadership and clear the way for international pacts aimed
guzzling cars.
at protecting the atmosphere.
Because of sisheer size and
influence,. the U.S.must be inthe
8.
Make the Environment a Summit Issue
vanguard of the effortito solve
the earth's environmenta crisis
When the leaders of the major industrial nations gather next June in Paris
Even fore international bodies
for their 15th economic summit, George Bush should push to make envi-
come upwithg
ronmental problems the No. 1 agenda item. Ronald Reagan's success at
the U.S. take many steps,
previous summits stemmed from his insistence on dealing with only one
unilaterally and Immediately:
major topic. Should Bush take that approach in Paris, global environmental
issues stand a better chance of getting the attention they deserve.
TIME, JANUARY 2, 1989
65
PLANET OF THE YEAR
And since they are harder than anything we have done before,
and the efforts may all come to naught anyway, why mess with
'What Is Wrong
them? Why not conserve our energy and just not even try? That
is a formidable barrier, not least because the solutions require in-
ternational cooperation on a scale that is totally unprecedented
With Us?"
in history.
A Senator's impassioned for action
T
hose five barriers must be overcome before the political
system reacts. The role of leadership is critical in spread-
ing awareness, in framing solutions, in offering a vision of
If the steps needed to save the environment are well known and
the future we want to create, as well as a vision of the nightmare
feasible, then why are they not taken? In a speech at the TIME con-
we wish to avoid.
ference, Senator Albert Gore of Tennessee, one of the most ardent
There is an old science experiment in which a frog is put into
environmentalists in Congress, explored this crucial question. Ex-
a pan of water, and the water is slowly heated to the boiling
cerpts, from his remarks:
point. The frog sits there and boils because its nervous system
will not react to the gradual increase. But if you boil the water
W
hen I announced I was running for President, I said
first and then put the frog in, it immediately jumps out.
the greenhouse effect, the depletion of the ozone layer
We are at an environmental boiling point right now. Is the
and the global ecological crisis will, by the end of this
destruction of one football-field's worth of forest every second
election year, be recognized as the most serious issue facing this
enough to make the frog react and jump out of the pan? What
country and the world. Three days later, a George Will column
will it take? If, as in a science-fiction movie, we had a giant in-
ridiculed the naiveté of a politician
vader from space clomping across
who could imagine that issues of this
the rain forests of the world with
kind would be politically salable.
BARRY STAVER
football field-size feet-going boom,
I guess he was partly right and
boom, boom every second-would
partly wrong. I was right in that the
we react? That's essentially what is
issue has, during this year, attained
going on right now.
enormous importance and new rec-
We saw the two whales trapped
ognition. But he was right, since it
in the Arctic ice, struggling for air,
didn't do me any good politically.
and the world responded. The U.S.
There are still barriers to political
and the Soviet Union cooperated.
action. Let me discuss five of them.
Yet we see 40,000 babies starving
Number one, there are areas of
every day, and we don't react. What
uncertainty about the greenhouse ef-
is wrong with us?
fect and the dire nature of the ecologi-
There used to be a debate in the
cal crisis we face, which are seized
'70s about appropriate technology.
upon as excuses for inaction. This is a
Now the question is: Did God choose
psychological problem common to all
an appropriate technology when he
humanity. If strong responses are
gave human beings dominion over
needed and yet there is some residual
the earth? The jury is still out. And
uncertainty about whether you are
the answer has to come in our lifetime
going to have to make those respons-
from the political system.
es, the natural psychological tenden-
There are precedents. We made
cy is to magnify the uncertainty and
"Did God choose an appropriate
human sacrifice, once commonplace,
say, "Well, maybe we won't really
obsolete. We made slavery obsolete.
have to face up to it."
technology when he gave human
These things, just like changes in
But the fact that we face an eco-
beings dominion over the earth?
weather patterns, took a long period of
logical crisis without any precedent
The jury is still out."
time. But now, just as climate changes
in historic times is no longer a mat-
are telescoped into a very short period
ter of any dispute worthy of recogni-
of time, changes in human thinking of
tion. And those who, for the purpose of maintaining balance in
a magnitude comparab to the changes that brought about the abo-
debate, take the contrarian view that there is significant uncer-
lition of slavery must take place in one generation.
tainty about whether it's real are hurting our ability to respond.
We know how to solve the problem. It will be unimaginably
The second barrier to political action is an unwillingness
difficult. The cooperation required will be unprecedented. But
to believe that something so far outside the bounds of historical
we know what to do. What is required is a change in thinking
experience can, in fact, be occurring. To put it another way, this
and a change in the equilibrium of the world's political system.
set of problems sounds like the plot of a bad science-fiction mov-
Right now the political equilibrium is characterized by
ie. People automatically assume it can't be real.
short-term policies at the expense of long-term policies. It is
The third political barrier is the assumption that it will be
characterized by actions to confer national advantage at the ex-
easier and more sensible to adapt to whatever climate change OC-
pense of actions designed to promote global advantage. It is
curs than it will be to prevent the crisis. But the change could
characterized by preparations for war, ignorance and starvation.
come so swiftly that adaptation will be all but impossible.
Our challenge as political leaders is to come up with an agen-
The fourth barrier is the lack of widespread awareness
da of solutions, which we are doing. But the larger challenge for
among the peoples of the world about the nature of the problem.
all of us is to shift the world's political system into a new state of
Most political leaders, let alone their public, are unaware of what
equilibrium, characterized by more cooperation, global agendas
is happening and how severe it is. That must be changed.
and a focus on the future. As General Omar Bradley said at the
The fifth barrier to political action is the knowledge that
end of World War II, "It is time we steered by the stars and not
many of the ultimate solutions are almost unimaginably difficult.
by the lights of each passing ship."
66
TIME. JANUARY 2, 1989
PLANET OF THE YEAR
The Greening of the U.S.S.R.
As his public cries out for a cleanup, Gorbachev fights a pall of pollution
BY DICK THOMPSON
ers. "In this restructuring," said Nicholas Robinson, a Pace Uni-
versity professor and an expert on the Soviet environment, "the
T
he Soviet Union is an environmentalist's nightmare. The
Communist Party Central Committee has decided that, after
industrial city of Nizhni Tagil, some 700 miles east of
disarmament, environmental protection is the No. 1 world is-
Moscow, is sometimes wrapped in clouds of gaseous
sue." An aggressive cleanup program has already begun. Proj-
wastes so thick and toxic that drivers must turn on their head-
ects are being re-evaluated in light of their environmental im-
lights at noon and children walking home from school get skin
pact. Fines have been levied on some polluters, and criminal
rashes. Every year 700,000 tons of toxic substances are spewed
proceedings have been started against others.
into the city's air. Not only Nizhni Tagil but more than 100 other
Internationally, the Soviets are pushing for stronger accords
major cities, including Moscow, also have air-pollution levels ten
to protect the environment and are seeking ways to integrate
times as high as the acceptable standards set by the Soviets.
their atmospheric-research efforts with those under way else-
where. For the first time since World
War II, the Soviet Union and the U.S.
may have found a common enemy: glob-
al climate change. Said President Mik-
hail Gorbachev in his speech this month
to the U.N. General Assembly: "Inter-
national economic security is inconceiv-
able unless related not only to disarma-
CAMP
ment but also to the elimination of the
threat to the world's environment."
One sign of the Soviets' willingness
to join international environmental ef-
forts was their presence at the TIME con-
ference in Boulder. Fyodor Morgun, the
recently appointed head of Goskom-
priroda, made his first trip to the U.S.
(and only his second journey outside the
Soviet Union) to attend the meeting.
And he was startlingly frank about the
situation in his country. "We have start-
ed too late," Morgun told the group.
"Our air is not up to the proper mark,
our soil is polluted, and our forests are
affected. Drastic measures were taken in
CLOUDY SKIES: Gases billow from an apatite refinery on the Kola Peninsula
the West 15 to 20 years ago to improve
the environment. Now my country must
get to work on this as well."
The land and water are not in any better shape. The riverbed
The Soviet environmental disaster has been a long time in
of the Neva, which meanders beside the magnificent Hermitage
the making. Beginning in the days of Stalin, ecological concerns
in Leningrad, is covered with a thick layer of oil. Ill-advised dam
were shunted aside in the rush toward industrialization. Valo-
construction and inappropriate irrigation projects have caused
vaya produktsiya, a phrase that translates into "gross output"
the level of the Aral Sea to drop 40 ft. It is possible that this body
and is abbreviated as val, was at the heart of the problem. Indus-
of water, the world's sixth largest sea, will not exist in 20 years.
try bureaucrats have long been evaluated-and rewarded-only
Siberia, once pristine, is laced with wastes from steel, chemical
in terms of gross output. Rivers were fouled and forests stripped
and coal industries. Worrisome numbers of dead sturgeon are
in the rush to transform raw materials into material wealth. No
floating atop the polluted Volga River, threatening the Soviets'
premium was placed on efficiency, and no environmental con-
prestigious caviar supply. Resorts along the Black Sea have
cerns restrained val. Trucks in Siberia, for example, are still left
banned swimming after the government's warning that the wa-
running every hour of every day throughout the winter because
ters are contaminated with dysentery and typhoid germs.
the vehicles are very difficult to start in the cold, and diesel fuel is
For decades the Soviet people accepted the situation in si-
plentiful.
lence. But glasnost has made them less afraid to speak out. Citi-
Nowhere are the consequences of unchecked industrializa-
zens worried about the environment are demonstrating by the
tion more obvious than in Siberia's Lake Baikal basin. Nearly 30
thousands and contributing to political unrest in the Baltic
years ago, Minlesbumprom (the Ministry of Timber, Pulp and
States. Elsewhere, budding environmental groups have even
Paper, and Wood Processing Industry) erected the Baikalsh pulp
sponsored candidates for city elections.
factory on the shores of this majestic body of crystal-clear water.
Amid the turmoil the Soviet government has finally begun to
The crescent-shaped lake holds 80% of the country's fresh water
move. The Kremlin has reorganized a number of departments
and 20% of the world's supply. Three-fourths of the lake's 2,500
into the new State Committee for the Protection of the Environ-
fish and plant species, including the Baikal nerpa, a fresh-water
ment, Goskompriroda, and given it an impressive range of pow-
seal, are unknown anywhere else in the world.
68
TIME, JANUARY 2. 1989
PLANET OF THE YEAR
All that is under assault. Currently, the
emissions and has begun criminal investi-
pulp factory produces 200,000 tons of cellu-
gations against more than ten other plants.
lose fibers a year, and its effluent, dis-
BARRY STAVER
But the Soviet leader may face a po-
charged directed into the lake, has created
tential conflict between his desire for a
a polluted zone 23 miles wide. Clouds of
cleaner environment and his hopes of rap-
yellowish smoke belching from the fac-
idly raising the living standards and con-
tory's smokestacks have settled over 770 sq.
sumption levels of his people. Without
mi. of Siberian wilderness and have killed
careful pollution control, boosting produc-
an estimated 86,000 fir trees.
tion will befoul the environment even
more. And money that goes into antipollu-
he environmental offenses at Baikal
tion equipment cannot be used for indus-
T
and elsewhere revived the deep rela-
trial expansion. In Boulder, Morgun em-
tionship that the Soviets have with
phasized that the Kremlin wanted to get
nature. "Please believe me," said Morgun,
around this dilemma by redirecting money
"the people have awakened." From Arme-
from military spending into the civilian
nia to Zaporozhye, hundreds of thousands
"We have started too
economy. That, he said, depended on con-
have taken to the streets to protest every-
thing from air pollution to nuclear-power
late. Our air is not up to
tinued progress in arms-control talks with
the U.S.
plants. In April 10,000 people demonstrat-
the proper mark, our
From an international perspective, the
ed against the conditions in Nizhni Tagil.
soil is polluted, and our
most disturbing aspect of the Soviet econo-
Protesters in Priozyorsk were successful in
forests are affected.
my is the enormous quantity of carbon di-
closing a major paper plant that had been
oxide it puts into the air. Because the ma-
dumping waste into Lake Ladoga, the
Drastic measures were
chines in many Soviet factories are obsolete
source of drinking water for 6 million peo-
taken in the West 15 to
and inefficient, they consume an inordinate
ple. Many of the political demonstrations in
20 years ago to improve
amount of energy, making the country one
the Baltic States are linked to the environ-
of the largest contributors to the green-
ment. Said Marshall Goldman, associate
the environment. Now
house effect. The Soviets are aware of this
director of the Russian Research Center at
my country must get to
problem and hope to solve it by importing
Harvard University: "In almost every re-
work on this as well."
technology designed to improve energy effi-
public in which there is a movement for in-
ciency and pollution control. They hope
dependence or the assertion of political
FYODOR MORGUN
that much of that technology will come
rights, it has been led by an environmental
from the U.S. Said Morgun: "We will go
movement."
anyplace, over any mountain, over an ocean to get the technol-
Gorbachev, whose background is in agriculture, has shown a
ogy. And if you offer some kind of technology, we will be glad to
special concern for the environment from the beginning of his
accept it. We would be most grateful."
reign. Early on, he toured the country and took care to detour
That is a plea the U.S. should take seriously, by easing restric-
from the carefully prepared showcase routes to inspect firsthand
tions on the export of industrial technology to the Soviets. Unfor-
the polluted rivers and devastated forests. Funds for environ-
tunately, the biggest barrier to such shipments is not export con-
mental protection, about $24 billion this year, are projected to
trols but the lack of hard currency. The U.S. cannot finance the
reach $46.4 billion annually in the first half of the 1990s. At the
Soviet drive to conserve energy and control pollution, but Ameri-
same time, Gorbachev's regime has cracked down on polluters.
ca should offer as much technical assistance as possible. The Sovi-
Around Lake Baikal, about two dozen violations of ecological
ets seem to be sincerely determined to clean up their act, and the
standards have been referred to prosecutors. In Nizhni Tagil the
U.S. should help out.
Reported by Ann Blackman/Moscow
government has closed ten factories for failing to control toxic
and Richard Hornik/Washington
LUCHINE-OGONIOK-SYGMA
TROUBLED WATERS: The once majestic Aral Sea may be gone in 20 years; studying the dried-up bed
TIME, JANUARY 2, 1989
69
PLANET OF THE YE'AR
Preparing for the Worst
If the sun turns killer and the well runs dry, how will humanity cope?
in sub-Saharan Africa or the vanishing coastline in Louisiana.
BY PHILIP ELMER-DEWITT
The other is that Homo sapiens is an immensely resourceful spe-
the nations of the world take immediate action, the destruc-
cies, with an impressive ability to accommodate sweeping
tion of the global environment can be slowed substantially.
change. In countries and regions hit by climatic upheavals, peo-
But some irreversible damage is inevitable. Even if fossil-fuel
ple have come up with a variety of solutions that are likely to
emissions are cut drastically, the overall level of carbon dioxide
have broad applicability to the global problems of tomorrow.
in the atmosphere will still increase-along with the likelihood
How would societies respond, for example, if the oceans
of some global warming. Even if toxic dumping is banned out-
were to rise by 3 ft. to 5 ft. over the next century, as some scien-
right and that ban is strictly enforced, some lakes and aquifers
tists have predicted? One option would be to construct levees and
will be tainted by poisons that have already been released. Even
dikes. The Netherlands, after all, has flourished more than 12 ft.
if global population growth could somehow be cut in half, there
below sea level for hundreds of years. Its newest bulwark is a 5.6-
would still be more than 45 million new mouths to feed next
mile dam made up of 131-ft. steel locks that remain open during
year, putting further strain on a planet whose capacity to sustain
normal conditions, to preserve the tidal flow that feeds the rich
life is already under stress.
local sea life, but can be closed when rough weather threatens.
Sooner or later the earth's human inhabitants, so used to
Venice is beginning to put into place a 1.2-mile flexible seawall
adapting the environment to suit their needs, will be forced to
that would protect its treasured landmarks against Adriatic
adapt themselves to the environment's demands. When that day
storms without doing ecological damage to the city's lagoon.
comes, how will societies respond? How well will the world cope
Shoring up cities such as New York, Los Angeles, Paris,
with the long-term changes that are likely to be in store?
London and Rio de Janeiro would require equally monumental
To help answer those questions, political scientist Michael
measures. In the U.S. the Environmental Protection Agency es-
Glantz of the National Center for Atmospheric Research has
timates that the cost of protecting developed coastal areas could
pioneered the use of a technique known as "forecasting by analo-
reach $111 billion. Southern Louisiana, which is losing land to
gy" to predict the effects on society of future climatic change. In
the Gulf of Mexico at the alarming rate of one acre every 16 min-
a series of case studies, Glantz and his colleagues analyzed the
utes, has already drawn up an ambitious mix of programs. In the
response of state and local governments to actual environmental
biggest project, a $24 million pumping station would divert mil-
events across the U.S., from a 12-ft. rise in the level of Utah's
lions of gallons of silt-rich Mississippi River water onto the
Great Salt Lake to the depletion of the aquifer that supplies
coastline to help stop saltwater intrusion and to supply sediment
groundwater to eight Great Plains states.
that will build up the eroding land. At least one parish is consid-
When Glantz's forecasting technique is applied to the rest of
ering plans for a backstop dike to give residents time to escape
the world, two things become clear. One is that virtually every
should the sea finally reach their doors.
long-term environmental change is occurring in miniature
Poorer countries have fewer options. Wracked by periodic
somewhere on the planet, whether it is a regional warming trend
floods, Bangladesh cannot simply evacuate the "chars"-bars of
70
TIME. JANUARY 2. 1989
PLANET OF THE YEAR
sand and silt in the Ganges Delta-where millions of people
winter vegetables eagerly sought by European markets. Through
have set up camp. But the government has drawn up plans for a
a process known as "fertigation"-dripping precise quantities of
network of raised helipads and local flood shelters to facilitate
water and nutrients at the base of individual plants-crops can
the distribution of emergency aid if, as seems inevitable, disaster
be grown in almost any soil, even with brackish water.
strikes again. Meanwhile, the country can only appeal to its Hi-
Plant genetics is another option that needs to be energetical-
malayan neighbors to do something about the root cause of the
ly pursued. At the University of California at Riverside, plant
flooding: the deforestation of watersheds in India and Nepal that
physiologist Anthony Hall is working on a way to make cowpeas
has turned seasonal monsoons into "unnatural disasters."
more tolerant to heat. Other scientists are using genetic engi-
The problems of agriculture are likely to be critical in the
neering to transfer genes from bacteria that act like natural in-
next century, as growing populations, deteriorating soil condi-
secticides. But though they have tried, scientists have not yet
tions and changing climates put even more pressure on a badly
been able to develop farm crops that are drought resistant. Says
strained food-supply system. In parts of sub-Saharan Africa, that
Hall: "You can't grow plants without water."
system has broken down periodically over the past 20 years, re-
There are things people can do if the well runs dry. Several
sulting in the familiar TV images of children with swollen bellies
communities located near the sea have built desalinization
and relief camps filled with hungry people.
plants. Denver, meanwhile, has pioneered the unsavory concept
What is not so well known is that hundreds of grass-roots or-
of turning sewer water into drinking water. In 1985 the city
ganizations in Africa are taking action to cope with environmen-
opened an experimental plant that produces 1 million gal. a day
tal change. Somalia has launched a vigorous antidesertification
of high-quality H2O from treated effluent.
drive that includes a ban on cutting firewood. In Burkina Faso
Some scientists have suggested that the depletion of the
PETER BANK
villagers have responded to steadily dwindling rainfall by build-
ozone layer could be counteracted by a variety of Star Wars-like
ing handmade dams and adapting primitive water-gathering
techniques. They include lofting frozen ozone "bullets" into the
techniques. Even so simple a trick as putting stones along the
upper atmosphere and blasting apart ozone-depleting molecules
contour lines of a field to catch rainwater can make the differ-
in the air with huge terrestrial laser beams. But such grandiose
ence between an adequate harvest and no harvest at all.
schemes would be unreliable and could change weather patterns
in unpredictable ways. In the end, it may be safer and cheaper, if
N
ecessity has spawned invention in marginal farmlands
inconvenient, to cope with ozone depletion by wearing wide-
around the world. The Chinese, threatened by a desert
brimmed hats, sunglasses and sunscreen.
that is spreading at the rate of 600 sq. mi. a year, are
Man has always shown a great capacity for adjusting to
planting a "green Great Wall" of grasses, shrubs and trees
change. Past generations have survived floods and ice ages, fam-
4,350 miles across their northern region. In Peru archaeologists
ines and world wars. But when dealing with the environment,
have revived a pre-Columbian agricultural system that involves
there is a grave danger in relying on adaptation alone: societies
dividing fields into patterns of alternating canals and ridges.
could end up waiting too long. Many of the global processes un-
The canals ensure a steady supply of water, and the nitrogen-
der way, like the wholesale destruction of species, are irrevers-
rich sediment that gathers on their floors provides fertilizer for
ible. Others, like global climate changes caused by man, are so
the crops.
profound that if allowed to progress too far, they could prove to
Perhaps no one is better prepared for hot, dry summers than
be overwhelming. Simple prudence suggests that taking forceful
Israel's farmers. The Israelis, using drip irrigation and other
preventive action now-to save energy, to curb pollution, to slow
techniques, have made plants bloom on land that has been bar-
population growth, to preserve the environment-will give hu-
PHOTOGRAPH ON PAGES NASA
ren for millenniums. Portions of the arid Negev, an area once
manity a much better chance of adapting to whatever comes in
written off as largely uncultivable, today grow fruit, flowers and
the future.
-Reported by J. Madeleine Nash/San Francisco
TIME, JANUARY 2, 1989
71
Magnitudes
Earth's wrath at our assaults is slow to come
But relentless when it does. It has to do
With catastrophic change, and with the limit
At which one order more of magnitude
Will bring us to a qualitative change
And disasters drastically different
From those we daily have to know about.
As with the speed of light, where speed itself
Becomes a limit and an absolute;
As with the splitting of the atom
And a little later of the nucleus;
As with the millions rising into billions-
The piker's kind in terms of money, yes,
But a million² in terms of time and space
As the universe grew vast while the earth
Our habitat diminished to the size
Of a billiard ball, both relative
To the cosmos and to the numbers of ourselves,
The doubling numbers, the earth could accommodate.
We stand now in the place and limit of time
Where hardest knowledge is turning into dream,
And nightmares still confined in sleeping dark
Seem on the point of bringing into day
The sweating panic that starts the sleeper up.
One or another nightmare may come true,
And what to do then? What in the world to do?
-Howard Nemerov
Nemerov is the poet laureate of the United States
HORIZONS
OUR DIRTY AIR
Trees and ponds are dying, and many American cities are
choked by a lung-searing, eye-blearing haze. But for the first
time in a decade, there's hope for a tough new law
early 20 years after Congress de-
mountain of unfinished business. It bare-
everyday products. After more than a
N
cided to "protect and enhance"
ly mentioned acid rain. Its strictures
decade of legislative stalemate, powerful
the nation's air quality, Ameri-
made it almost impossible for the U.S.
new political players are finally putting
cans are still spewing filth into
Environmental Protection Agency to
air quality back at the top of the agenda.
the skies. Noxious gases produced by
clamp down on growing emissions of
Robert Byrd of West Virginia, which
huge industrial smokestacks are poison-
toxic chemicals. It left a large part of the
produces the kind of high-sulfur coal that
ing the lakes, streams and forests of the
responsibility for meeting health stan-
helps acidify Eastern rains, has yielded to
North and Southeast. Industry belches
dards to the states, which have missed
a new Senate majority leader, George
billions of pounds of toxic chemicals into
one deadline after another since the act
Mitchell, from the acid-polluted state of
the atmosphere every year. In car-choked
was passed. "The great dirty secret is
Maine. Ronald Reagan, whose adminis-
metropolitan areas, last year's levels of
that, except in auto emissions, we
tration questioned the need for any new
ozone, the poisonous form of oxygen that
haven't tried very hard on air pollution,"
action at all, has given way to self-pro-
is the chief component of urban smog,
says Richard Ayres, chairman of the
claimed First Environmentalist George
reached an all-time high. Some 140 mil-
National Clean Air Coalition.
Bush, who will soon produce clean-air
lion Americans, nearly 3 out of every 5
That may soon change. Things are so
proposals of his own. Meanwhile, indus-
citizens, now live in areas that do not
bad in some areas that regional air-quality
try leaders who once opposed almost any
meet the health standards set by the
managers are considering drastic new
clean-air strictures have changed their
Clean Air Act of 1970.
measures: Trying to limit the number of
tune. Alarmed at the prospect of 50 sepa-
It is clear that the 1970 law, a delicate
cars families own, forcing manufacturers
rate sets of regulations, as states take
compromise among dozens of competing
to reformulate cosmetics and paints, out-
matters into their own hands, they now
economic and regional interests and be-
lawing gasoline-powered lawn mowers,
see the wisdom of cooperating in the
tween federal and state authority, left a
charcoal lighter fluids and a host of other
design of a federal umbrella law
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT 1980
Suddenly, the question is not whether
The main source of both NOx and hy-
those extra miles, also sit idling in traf-
there will be a bill, but just what, exact-
drocarbons is motor vehicles, which is
fic jams for many more hours than did
ly, the Clean Air Act of 1990 will con-
why sunny, gridlocked cities like Los
their predecessors.
n. There's no escaping the political
Angeles and Mexico City are particular-
The complex chemistry of smog can
and economic battles that will be fought
ly at risk. But ozone observes no bor-
play some befuddling tricks on efforts to
along the way. At present, according to
ders. Typically, it builds up in a large
reduce ozone. In certain circumstances,
EPA estimates, the United States is
stagnant air mass above a city, then
cutting back emissions of NOx can actu-
spending about $30 billion a year to con-
drifts downwind. Thus, northern New
ally increase the amount of ozone
trol air pollution; the tougher measures
England is often treated to pollution that
formed in smog. When America cracked
now being considered could more than
originates as far away as Baltimore. Last
down on the use of chlorofluorocarbons
double that figure. Fierce arguments are
summer, rangers in Maine's Acadia Na-
as spray-can propellants because the
already under way over which cleanup
tional Park recorded ozone levels so
CFC's attack the stratospheric ozone
benefits are worth such costs, and over
high that they would have triggered a
layer that shields the earth from exces-
who, precisely, is to pay. Midwestern
smog alert in Los Angeles, smog capital
sive solar radiation, manufacturers re-
u lity customers, for instance, probably
of the nation.
placed CFC's with propellants like bu-
cannot afford the entire cost of cleaning
Nationwide, 1988 ozone levels were
tane. But butane, it turns out, is a
up regional power plants. One proposed
the decade's highest, and for many cities
volatile organic compound; it contrib-
solution is a national users' fee that
they were the worst ever recorded. Fully
utes to the buildup of the undesirable
would spread the cost among all 50
94 urban areas violated the Clean Air
ozone-smog-at ground level.
states. But would voters in Wyoming, a
Act's standards. More than 20 were
Toxics. The Clean Air Act of 1970
producer of low-sulfur coal, be willing to
first-time offenders. And after 19 years
ordered the EPA to protect public
chip in to help clean up Ohio plants so
of trying to break the ozone curse, the
health from the bewildering, and grow-
that they can burn high-sulfur coal from
highest ozone levels were, nonetheless,
ing, assortment of toxic substances re-
the East?
depressingly predictable: Southern Cali-
leased into the atmosphere by manufac-
Whatever bill finally emerges from the
fornia, New York City, Houston and
turers. The agency was supposed to
C ning months of political horse-trading
Chicago.
evaluate the health hazards posed by
is almost certain to focus on three criti-
Cutting ozone levels has proven far
each one, then set rules to control it.
cal subjects:
more difficult than anyone at first antic-
That chemical-by-chemical approach,
Ozone. Urban smog is made up of doz-
ipated. True, new cars emit 90 percent
however, has proven hopelessly un-
ens of ingredients, including carbon
fewer hydrocarbons and 75 percent less
wieldy. The evaluation studies take time
monoxide, particulates such as dirt, soot
carbon monoxide than did those of the
and money, and expenditures of both are
and dust, and ozone, a highly reactive
early 1970s. But at the same time, the
compounded by the endless legal chal-
gas that is cooked up in the troposphere
national vehicle fleet is nearly twice as
lenges mounted by producers of the
when sun shines on a mix of nitrogen
big as it was two decades ago. Cars to-
chemicals. Nineteen years after the act
oxides (NOx), hydrocarbons and other
day are traveling more miles per year.
was passed, the EPA has issued regula-
tile organic compounds (VOC's)
And all those automobiles, traveling all
tions for only seven of the hundreds of
HORIZONS
THE NEWEST HEALTH
HAZARD: BREATHING
Where
it hurts
The best advice is to cut back
on strenuous activity when
the smog rolls in
2
W
hen smog settles into the Los
Angeles basin, Shirley Levy
slows down. Instead of showing
AIR
condominiums, shopping or meeting
3
friends for lunch, she stays at home,
reading or working quietly at her desk.
On really hazy days, she wraps a scarf
around her nose and mouth. "I get this
tight feeling across my chest," she ex-
AIR
plains. "Every movement feels like I'm
climbing stairs with a 50-pound weight
1
on my back."
Levy is one of the 140 million Ameri-
cans-about 60 percent of the popula-
tion-who live in areas where the air is
unhealthy at least part of the time. Be-
1
cause she has asthma and emphysema,
she suffers more than most when the air
quality drops. But dirty air isn't just a
hazard for people with weak lungs or a
damaged heart. It harms everyone who
inhales it, though the impact is often
subtle and cumulative. A jogger notices
that on smoggy days she tires quickly, or
a construction worker realizes that he's
catching an alarming number of colds.
Faced with these symptoms, people of-
ten put the blame on stress, late nights
or a fast-food diet. Increasingly, they
should take a hard look at the air they
breathe as well.
DIAGRAM BY GARY VISGAITIS FOR USN&WR
Many of the pollutants that people
inhale are cleared out of the nose and
single breath. The deficiency can last up
tration and motor coordination. It is es-
throat well before they reach the lungs.
to a week. While people at rest can toler-
pecially hazardous to developing fetuses.
Tiny particles, such as soot, are trapped
ate relatively high levels of ozone without
since the fetal brain needs a lot of oxy-
on fine hairs lining the nasal passages and
ill effects, many experts suspect that regu-
gen, and to people with heart disease.
trachea. and some gases, such as sulfur
lar doses of smog may permanently scar
whose oxygen-carrying circulatory sys-
dioxide, are absorbed largely in the upper
the lungs. "As with cigarette smoke, ev-
tems already are compromised.
airways. But the body has no front-line
ery exposure may do a little damage,"
The same acids that kill off fish ii
defenses against ozone, a poisonous form
says New York University Medical Cen-
Eastern lakes and streams also harn
of oxygen that is the most harmful com-
ter Prof. Morton Lippmann. Enough
people. Created in the atmosphere from
ponent of the brownish haze choking
scarring, warns Philip Landrigan, of the
nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide, aci
metropolitan areas. Ozone irritates and
American Academy of Pediatrics, and
aerosols slip easily past the body's de
inflames delicate pulmonary membranes.
you are a "pulmonary cripple by the time
fenses deep into the lungs where the
producing a host of symptoms, including
you hit your 50s or 60s."
inflame tissues. Like ozone, acid aerosol
chest pains, coughing and throat irrita-
The other major poison in smog is
depress pulmonary function and ma
tion. The corrosive chemical also lowers
carbon monoxide. It is emitted primarily
permanently scar the lungs.
the lungs' defenses against infection and
by cars, and can build up to dangerous
The jury is still out on whether th
may trigger asthma attacks.
levels along major urban thoroughfares.
many toxic chemicals dumped into th
Permanent damage. Most disturbing,
This colorless, odorless gas robs the
air by industrial processes pose a majo
however, is the way ozone whittles away
body's tissues and organs of life-sustain-
threat to public health. Scientists don
an individual's lung capacity. Scientists
ing oxygen; when inhaled, it binds with
yet know how many people are expose
find that after a person exercises outdoors
the red blood cells that otherwise would
to which chemicals and at what dose:
in ozone-filled air, lung inflammation re-
transport oxygen around the body. Car-
The U.S. is dotted with toxic "hot spots.
duces the amount of air he can inhale in a
bon-monoxide pollution impairs concen-
like Front Royal, Va., and Lemoyn
50
U.S. NEWS & WORLD REPORT, June 12, 1989
COVER STORY
chemicals considered dangerous to hu-
the soil work to neutralize or dilute the
man health.
acidity before it can do any harm.
Meanwhile, toxic chemicals may be a
The problem is that industrial soci-
Throat, Lungs
far worse problem than Congress real-
ety's inexorably growing use of cheap,
Ozone, when inhaled, reduces
ized in 1970. Last April, a House sub-
plentiful coal to produce electric power
the agents and toxins and can
lung's ability to clear out
committee released the results of the
has overloaded nature's cleansing cycle.
first national survey of toxic chemicals.
As a result, one fifth of the lakes in New
Savate asthma.
The survey-nicknamed "Bhopal's
York's Adirondack Mountains have
baby" because it was ordered after the
grown too acidic to support fish, and
Other chemicals formed in smog,
1984 chemical disaster at Union Car-
half the streams in the mid-Atlantic
especially PAN, or peroxyacetyl
bide's plant in Bhopal, India-showed
irritate the eyes.
coastal states are endangered. Spruces,
that during 1987 industry released 2.7
maples and pines in California and Ap-
ain Inhalation of carbon monoxide
billion pounds of toxics, some of them
palachia absorb the acids through nee-
can impair motor coordination and
known carcinogens, into the air. "The
dles, leaves and roots, and are now suf-
centration, perhaps by reducing
magnitude of the problem far exceeds
fering from what the Germans poetically
rigen supply to brain.
our worst fears," said California Demo-
call Waldsterben, forest death. Buildings
crat Henry Waxman, chairman of the
and monuments in the Midwest and
Carbon monoxide disrupts the
subcommittee. The real magnitude may
delivery of oxygen to the body by
Northeast, especially structures made of
with red blood cells. Low
be even greater than the study suggested.
marble, are being steadily eaten away.
oxygen levels aggravate angina
The survey did not cover chemicals re-
Back in 1970, acid rain was not an
leased from cars, trucks and toxic-waste
pains).
issue. Few scientists, let alone politi-
dumps, by companies that used less than
cians, realized how much damage it
mog index
10,000 pounds of chemicals during the
could do. The old act focused on sulfur
metro areas issue air-pollution
year or by thousands upon thousands of
dioxide as a health hazard, whose effects
based on a numerical scale that
service businesses, such as dry cleaners
were mostly visible in the immediate
sects the concentration of the most
and gas stations, which spew out toxics
neighborhood of the worst SO₂ offend-
ealthful pollutant present in the air
as a matter of course.
ers, power plants burning high-sulfur
101-
200-
300
To improve toxics regulation, the EPA
coal. The law placed strict limits on the
100
199
299
plus
wants any new law to permit an industry-
amount of sulfur dioxide that could be
Hazardous
by-industry approach to the problem, in-
emitted by any plant built after 1972.
derate
Elderly and
stead of the old chemical-by-chemical
New plants either had to install flue-gas
healthful
persons with
system. First, the EPA would rank indus-
those diseases
desulfurization gear, "scrubbers," or
sons with heart or
tries according to the amount of toxics
spiratory ailments
should stay
burn low-sulfur coal; plants built before
indoors and
they produce: the chemical industry,
1972 were grandfathered. The EPA set
uld reduce
sical exertion
avoid physical
smelting, pesticide production. petroleum
standards governing the concentration
exertion.
refining and tire manufacturing would fall
of sulfur and nitrogen near the Midwest-
ry unheaithful
Everyone should
high on the list. Then, the EPA would
ern plants that produced them, "so
cerly and persons with
avoid
outdoor
or lung disease
evaluate the cost of cleanup technologies
much crud per cubic meter of air." in
activity
ould stay indoors
available to each industry, and order vari-
the words of David Bassett. one of the
ous toxic-producing sites to use them.
agency's acid-rain experts.
Refineries. for instance. might be ordered
The result was not what environmen-
to light flares on their smokestacks to
talists expected. Until the EPA finally
though in the average community,
burn off organic chemicals. Smelters
cracked down on the practice. industry
concentrations of airborne toxics
might have to install fabric filters, much
built taller smokestacks that efficiently
industry are vanishingly small. In
like lint traps in clothes dryers. on stacks
reduced the local concentration of sulfur
most of the toxics that people inhale
to trap cadmium and other particulate
and nitrogen oxides to meet the EPA's
from garette smoke and house-
metals dangerous to public health.
standards and ended up wafting the crud
chemicals. The EPA estimates that
Acid pollution. Ironically. it is the at-
toward the Northeastern forests. To make
are responsible for 2,000 excess
mosphere's own self-cleaning mecha-
matters worse. the dirty old plants are
cer deaths a year, but right now that
nism that produces the pollution known
lasting 50 to 60 years. instead of being
mber isn't much more reliable than a
as acid rain. Sulfur dioxide and nitrogen
retired to make room for clean burners.
guess. "There's cause for enlight-
oxides are released into the earth's atmo-
Environmentalists are now demand-
concern. but it doesn't do any good
sphere by a variety of natural processes.
ing fast and unequivocal action, and that
hysterical." says Rogene Hender-
including volcanic eruptions and light-
means forcing even the long-lived old
senior scientist at the Lovelace Inha-
ning strikes. and by an increasing num-
plants to install scrubbers. Utilities
on Toxicology Research Institute in
ber of human activities. especially the
would prefer to stall as long as possible.
uquerque. N.M.
burning of fossil fuels. Sunlight causes a
And no wonder. One recent analysis
even with new legislation, the task of
series of chemical reactions that trans-
shows that every year of delay in clean-
aning up the air will not be accom-
form these gases into sulfuric and nitric
ing up old plants has saved industry as
Shed overnight. In the meantime,
acids. Most of the acid molecules end up
much as $5 billion. The utilities' current
fley Levy's prescription may make
in cloud droplets. They may remain sus-
strategy is to argue that "clean coal"
most sense: When the air is bad, try
pended for a while in cloud form: near
technologies now under development
to breathe it.
Los Angeles, for instance, the fog some-
will provide the answers. If they are
times is as acidic as lemon juice. Eventu-
forced to retrofit all old plants with
by Betsy Carpenter
ally, however, the molecules are washed
scrubbers, industry spokesmen argue.
out of the air in rain or snow and fall
they will not be able to develop and
back to earth. where natural processes in
deploy plants that incorporate such ad-
U.S NEWS & WORLD REPORT, June 12, 1989
51
HORIZONS
vanced schemes. One new technology
tailpipe standards. In addition, Waxman
burns pulverized coal together with
publishes a weekly newsletter, Clean Air
limestone to absorb the sulfur, cutting
Facts, which he sends to every member
sulfur-dioxide emissions. Another sys-
of the House.
tem heats coal to produce gas, which is
The laundry lobby. They can use the
then cleaned and burned in a gas turbine
help. Already, two-dozen clean-air bills
similar to a jet engine; the sulfur recov-
have been introduced on the Hill, and
ered from the gas cleansing is pure
lobbyists are hard at work trying to win
enough to be sold as a byproduct.
congressional hearts and minds. Some
If, despite these arguments, they are
are obvious players. The auto industry,
forced to clean up, utilities desperately
not surprisingly, is fighting against
want "freedom of choice." That means
tougher emissions standards, and mine
legislation that sets limits on emissions,
workers hope to protect the use of high-
but allows industry itself to choose the
sulfur Eastern coal. But this time round
cheapest course for meeting them. In
there are also some unfamiliar interests
some cases, that would mean installing
at work. Bakeries and laundries, for in-
scrubbers on old plants, a course both
stance, don't want to be forced to reduce
environmentalists and Eastern coal min-
Forest death. An evergreen in Vermont,
emissions of ozone-producing hydrocar-
ers approve. In others, it would be to
victim of acid rain from the Midwest
bons from fermenting yeast or evaporat-
burn low-sulfur coal from the West:
ing dry-cleaning fluids. Companies that
Fine with environmentalists but anathe-
California Congressman Henry Wax-
make cleanup equipment want to make
ma to the miners.
man, the environmentalists' champion
sure any new law requires the use of
It is conflicts and complications like
on Capitol Hill, is trying to change that.
their products or at least does not pre-
these that make the drafting of a new
For the last two months, he has been
clude it. Railway engineers are lobbying
law so difficult. "There aren't 15 people
holding weekly "clean-air classes" to
for required use of low-sulfur coal, which
in the Capitol who understand the tech-
help his colleagues and their staffs sort
would have to be shipped east by rail.
nical complexities," says Republican
through the issues. Recently, for exam-
Meanwhile, all sides await word from
Senator Alan Simpson, whose state of
ple, a class heard a debate between an
the White House. Bush's clean-air plan,
Wyoming, a big producer of low-sulfur
auto-company executive and a former
originally promised for late March, has
coal, has a large stake in the outcome.
EPA expert on the feasibility of tighter
been delayed by high-level skirmishing
USN&WR MAP BY DAVID S
Dayton
Jefferson
Glen Falls / Essex County
Dirt, coast to coast
Toledo
County
Poughkeepsie
Kennebec County
Muskegon
Columbus
Sixty percent of the U.S. pop-
Scranton
Hartford
Lincoln County
Grand
Detroit
Reading
ulation lives in cities that violate
Springfield,
Knox County
Rapids
Cleveland
federal smog standards; many
Average
Hancock County
Kewaunee
Lancaster
other areas of the country are
number of days
Portland
County
per year in
Monroe
15417
York County
affected by acid rain
Buffalo
2
violation of
5
Portland
Portsmouth
Youngstown
or toxic and cancer-
ozone
Counties that
Canton
Manchester
causing chemicals
standard
emit more
Worcester
than 20
Sheboygan
emitted by industrial
Boston
New violators
Milwaukee
Erie
million lb.
8
(no number of
Sharon
New Bedford
processes
of toxic air
Chicago
Union
2
Providence
Sacramento
Tooele
days available)
pollutants
Cook
Stockton
4%
10
Lafayette
Pittsburgh
8
New York
San Francisco
per year
Indianapolis
2
6
Fresno
16
Modesto
Salt
Warrena
Sussex County
Cincinnati
+
Lake
St. Louis
Huntington
1
Allentown
Kings County
31
Charlestor
6
12 Visalia
5
2
Atlantic City
City
Denver
Bakersfield
35
Parkersburg
Kansas
Greenbrier County
Philadelphia
Louisville
Santa Barbara 2
City
3
Lexington,
Sullivan
3.
2
Kent County
144 Los Angeles
Tulsa 1
Nashville
Knoxville
2
Memphis
14
Harrisburg
Los Angeles
Birmingham 3
Baltimore
San Diego 13)
2
Phoenix/
Dallas-Fort Worth
Atlanta
-6%
Montgomery 2
Norfolk
9
Ector
Iberville
Washington
Mobile
El Paso
Beaumont
Parish
Richmond
Kenai-Cook Inlet
Houston
2
2 3 Bator/Rouge
Ascension
2
Raleigh-
19
Lake Charles
Durham
Harris
Altoona
Brazoria
Johnstown
Jacksonville
Fayetteville
Jefferson
Tampa
Greensboro
Charlotte
Greenville
Miami
Cherokee County
Where the acid falls
Acidity of rainfall, pH units
Rainfall with a pH reading
4.1-4.2
of 5 or below is considered
4.3-4.4
4.5-4.6
USN&WR-Basic data
severe, 4.2 the most severe
4.7-4.8
Environmental
4.9-5.0
5.1-5.7
Protection Agency
52
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, June 12, 1989
COVER STORY
between the EPA, which wants tougher
regulations, and the Office of Manage-
ment and Budget, which is wary of the
costs. The most contentious questions
include how many power plants in the
TED SPIEGEL STAR
Midwest and Southeast to target for
acid-rain cleanup. Is it more cost-effec-
tive to require lots of plants to clean up a
little, or to force a few plants to cut
emissions by a lot? In addition, the EPA
insists on the need for heavy use of alter-
native fuels for vehicles, a policy the
Energy Department resists.
Bush will choose from a menu of op-
tions prepared by his advisers, and the
White House will try to translate the
President's choices into "legislative lan-
guage" as early as this week. Then the
Smog alert. A scientist studies the effects of ozone on orange trees in Riverside, Calif.,
congressional debate will get under way
where pollution is so bad that oranges are no longer grown commercially
in earnest. By next spring, Bush may
well have a tough new clean-air measure
chemicals under control, the new law
John Dingell, it will almost surely slap
to sign. To stop acid rain, the new legis-
may extend the EPA's regulatory reach
tougher emissions standards on automo-
lation is likely to require reductions in
to include not just major offenders like
biles and perhaps require increased use
sulfur-dioxide emissions of 5 million
chemical plants and refineries but also
of nongasoline fuels like methanol, espe-
tons a year by the mid-1990s, 10 million
gasoline stations and dry cleaners. To
cially in the nation's most polluted areas.
tons a year by 2000. It will probably
attack ozone levels, the new legislation
The future of the nation, in fact, is
require scrubbers for some of the dirtiest
will include both new deadlines for com-
beginning to look a lot like California.
old plants but permit others to do some
pliance and a series of new standards
Faced with the worst air quality in the
fuel switching, a compromise fairly pal-
governing small polluters. Despite fero-
country in the Los Angeles air basin,
atable to all concerned. To get toxic
cious opposition by Michigan Democrat
that state long ago took many of the
USN&WR DIAGRAM BY MATT ZANG
Transformations in the air
ty
ty
Smog. Nitrogen oxides (NOx, produced by combustion processes)
Acid rain. NOx and sulfur oxides (SOx), most of it
ty
combine with volatile organic chemicals (VOC's, which include gasoline
produced by power plants burning sulfur-containing
ty
vapor, paint thinners, dry-cleaning fluid and many other industrial
coal, react with water vapor and other naturally
di
chemicals) in the presence of sunlight to form ozone, an irritating
occurring chemicals higher in the atmosphere to form
ly
chemical that is the chief component of smog. Carbon monoxide (CO)
acids that fall to earth as acid rain.
from combustion adds to the toxic brew.
er
er
n
di
e
Sunlight
Water vapor
y
n
y
a
Ozone
y
g
Smog
e
Acid
rain
n
n
n
Sulfuric acid
a
Major sources of air pollutants:
Nitric acid
n
(percentage of total emissions)
e
,
GOODD
e
VOC's
24%
12%
11%
Vehicles
Painting/
Wood-burning
coating
stoves
66%
SOx
Electric
adopp
CO
utilities
54%
11%
10%
35%
34%
NOx
Vehicles
Forest
Wood-burning
Electric
Vehicles
fires
stoves
utilities
WR-Basic data: Environmental Protection Agency
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, June 12. 1989
53
HORIZONS
steps now under discussion in Washing-
Tier I, required by 1993, would not re-
has to contemplate such strictures may
ton. If other urban areas had enforced
quire any new technology. It would, for
depend, in large part, on the coming
the same clean-air measures Los Angeles
instance, outlaw new drive-through fa-
debate in Washington. Waxman, for
has adopted already, says James Lents,
cilities to keep vehicles from idling in
one, is hopeful that this time the nation
executive officer of the South Coast Air
lines, promote van-pooling and charge
has the political will to do what re-
Quality Management District, which
families a premium to own more than
mained undone in 1970, perhaps to pre-
monitors L.A.-area pollution, Los Ange-
one car. Tier II, to be in place by the
clude the necessity for more Draconian
les itself-the victim of a geography that
turn of the century, would require signif-
measures next time around. He is push-
traps pollutants in abundant sunshine-
icant advances in technology and vigor-
ing to get a bill to the House floor be-
would be the only city in the country
ous regulatory intervention. Extensive
fore the end of the summer smog sea-
that is not in compliance with existing
cleanup of electric-power plants and oil
son. That, of course, is no accident. It
federal health standards.
refineries in the L.A. basin would be
was a 14-day Washington smog alert in
Now Southern California is planning
compelled, for example. Tier III, sched-
1970 that helped produce the original
to go even further. In March, the Los
uled for the year 2007, would require the
Clean Air Act.
Angeles air-quality authorities proposed
development of brand-new technology,
the most ambitious antipollution plan
such as electric cars.
by Merrill McLoughlin with Betsy Carpenter,
yet, to be put into effect in three tiers.
Whether the rest of the country ever
William J. Cook and Andy Plattner
LET THE LOBBYING
COMMENCE
Forget the environment-
HORAN FOR USN&WR
the real battle's about jobs,
coal and politics as usual
F
or Democratic Congressman
Terry Bruce, clean air is a politi-
cal minefield. Cleaning up acid
rain will force the coal-burning utili-
ties in his Southern Illinois district to
reduce sulfur fumes, driving up elec-
tric rates and possibly eliminating lo-
cal coal-mining jobs. New restrictions
on auto emissions could squeeze the
largest industry in Bruce's district, a
General Motors foundry in Danville.
But Bruce cannot vigorously protect
Conflict of interest. Bruce visits a local coal-fired power plant
utilities, coal miners or auto workers
without drawing the wrath of the
er plants so they could continue to
Environmentalists. At the University
University of Illinois environmental-
burn high-sulfur coal. The scrubbers
of Illinois, environmental activists
ists who helped put him in office.
would be paid for by a national elec-
helped Bruce defeat an incumbent
As a member of the committee writ-
tric tax. The miners tell Bruce to re-
Republican in 1984. He would like to
ing the new Clean Air Act, Bruce faces
mind his colleagues that federal in-
please them, but they want a bill that
the classic collision between America's
come taxes helped pay for the
would crack down on cars as well as
economic interests and the search for
Tennessee Valley Authority and the
acid rain. "We are seeing a surge of
cleaner air. His constituents offer a
Hoover Dam.
environmental awareness," says
sample of the battle to come:
Utility executives. If sulfur emissions
Clark Bullard, who directs the uni-
Coal miners. Don Baldwin, 41, runs
are to be cut, Richard Grant, environ-
versity's office of energy research.
the massive machine that rips coal
mental manager for Central Illimois
Bruce wants Congress to craft a
from the underground Amax, Inc.,
Public Service Company, wants the
delicate compromise that requires
mine, employer of 900. The coal fuels
freedom to burn low-sulfur coal, much
some scrubbers to help the coal min-
the 2,853-megawatt Gibson power
of it mined in the West. At one plant in
ers, gives some leeway to utilities to
station, which spews 306,000 tons of
Newton, there are two 545-mega
choose low-sulfur coal, protects auto
sulfur dioxide annually into the air.
boilers. One is fitted with a $121 mil-
workers and, to please the environ-
Baldwin believes his job is threatened
lion scrubber that costs $11 million a
mental crowd, spreads the economic
by a new clean-air law. But he also
year to run; the other burns low er-
pain to even small polluters such as
wants to help clean up acid rain. "I
sulfur coal and requires no scrubber.
bakeries and dry cleaners. But he is
want New Englanders to enjoy the
Grant is quick to remind Bruce than 15
painfully aware that a compromise
outdoors. but I want a job so I can
of Bruce's 18 counties are served by this
may displease everyone: "What they
enjoy the outdoors myself."
company: "The people in Southern
want, I can't deliver."
The miners' solution is to install
Illinois neither see the problem nor feel
expensive scrubbers on Midwest pow-
they should pay for it."
by Andy Plattner in Keensburg, III.
54
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT. June 12. 1989
I
ACID RAIN
MAY 16, 1989
(OVERHEADS)
PRESIDENTIAL COMMITMENTS
Campaign
"On the question of acid rain, the time for study alone has passed. We
know enough now to begin taking steps to limit future damage as
President, I will ask for a program to cut million of tons of sulfur dioxide
emissions by the year 2000, and to reduce significantly nitrogen oxide
emissions as well."
February 9th Speech
"I will send to you shortly legislation for a new, more effective Clean Air
Act. It will include a plan to reduce, by date certain, the emissions which
cause acid rain--because the time for study alone has passed, and the
time for action is now."
"Building a Better America"
"The Administration's program will include market-based approaches,
supplementing and modifying the traditional command-and-control
approaches. The goal is to get the federal government out of the detailed
regulation of industry decisions and reduce the need for elaborate EPA-
approved, state-prepared emission reduction plans the legislation will
provide flexibility to states and industry to adopt least cost compliance
strategies (and) incentives for the early deployment of innovative
emission reduction techniques."
2
STATE OF THE SCIENCE
NATIONAL ACID PRECIPITATION ASSESSMENT PROGRAM (NAPAP):
"The only benefits generally agreed to be expected from new acid
rain controls will be improvements in acidic and sensitive lakes and
streams
II
"There is no evidence of widespread forest damage from acid rain,
with the possible exception of mountain-top exposures to acidic
clouds."
"Possible health risks associated with, acid rain pollutants are
currently being evaluated."
WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE:
"Acid deposition and ozone are important contributors to the decline
of several tree species in the East."
o
CONGRESSIONAL OFFICE OF TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT (OTA):
"Acid deposition may be adversely affecting a significant fraction of
Eastern U.S. forests [and] Fine particles such as sulfates reduce
visibility and have been linked to increased human mortality in
regions with elevated levels of air pollution."
BENEFIT/COST ESTIMATES
Benefits exist but are difficult to quantify because ecosystems are
complex and vary in their sensitivity
1987 Domestic Policy Council study analyzed a broad range of proposals
including 8 and 10 million ton reductions. The study found that the total
benefits and costs lie within a comparable range.
4
CONTENTIOUS ISSUES
o
Impact on High Sulfur Coal Production and Employment
-
Northern West Virginia, Western Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois,
Western Kentucky
-
Potential losses offset by gains in other areas (e.g., Southern West
Virginia, Eastern Kentucky, Eastern Tennessee and the West)
O
Impact On Electricity Rates
-
Mandating "scrubbers" on specific power plants could raise
statewide average rates 7 percent in Midwest; however, none of the
options presented mandates any particular technology.
-
Proposals with greater flexibility would result in smaller increases
within those states--e.g., 3-4 percent
-
Rate increases for individual utilities could be higher
MAJOR DECISION/ISSUES
1. Amount of Reductions
2. Interim Targets (i.e., should there be a first phase). If so, what timing
and amounts
3. Emissions trading and "marketable permits"
4. Process for allocating reductions
6
AMOUNT OF SO2 REDUCTIONS
(SECOND PHASE)
Choices
7 MILLION TONS
COSTS: 1.8 B PER YEAR
8 MILLION TONS
COSTS: 2.2 B PER YEAR
10 MILLION TONS
COSTS: 3.8 B PER YEAR
0
TOTALS UNDER ALL OPTIONS INCORPORATE 1 MILLION TONS
ALREADY CONTROLLED FROM SMELTERS AND OTHER INDUSTRIAL
SOURCES
THE WORKING GROUP PROPOSES A YEAR 2000 DEADLINE,
CONSISTENT WITH YOUR COMPAIGN COMMITMENTS, WITH A THREE
YEAR EXTENSION ALLOWED FOR ADOPTION OF CLEAN COAL
REPOWERING TECHNOLOGIES.
COSTS UNDER ALL OPTIONS ASSUME A REQUIRED 2 MILLION TON
NOx REDUCTION. THE WORKING GROUP PROPOSES FULL SO2/NOx
TRADING WHICH, BY DEFINITION, CAN ONLY REDUCE COSTS.
7
LEVEL OF REDUCTIONS -
UTILITY COST IMPACTS
10
10
9
9
8
8
7
CHANGE IN UTILITY ANNUALIZED COSTS
7
(BILLIONS OF 1987 $/YEAR)
6
5
4
CHANGE IN UTILITY ANNUALIZED COSTS
(BILLIONS OF 1987 $/YEAR)
6
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
*
so 2 EMISSION REDUCTIONS BELOW 1980 LEVELS
UTILITY NOx EMISSION REDUCTIONS BELOW PROJECTED LEVELS
(MILLIONS OF TONS)
(MILLIONS OF TONS)
* Assumes 1 million tons of $02 reductions or declines In emissions below 1980 levels from Industrial sources.
ACID RAIN
OPTIONS FOR NOX REDUCTIONS
NO NOx REDUCTIONS
2 MILLION TONS
COST: $0.3-0.5 B
4 MILLION TONS
COST: $1.5-2.5 B
ALLOW SO2/NOx TRADING
9
ACID RAIN
OPTIONS FOR FIRST PHASE PROGRAM
AMOUNT OF REDUCTIONS
5 MILLION TONS
COST: $750 M PER YEAR
4 MILLION TONS
COST: $450 M PER YEAR
NO FIRST PHASE
o
TOTALS UNDER OPTIONS 1 AND 2 INCORPORATE 1 MILLIONS TONS
ALREADY CONTROLLED FROM SMELTERS AND OTHER INDUSTRIAL
SOURCES
THESE REDUCTIONS ARE ALL SO2--NOx REDUCTIONS NOT REQUIRED
UNTIL SECOND PHASE
TIMING
1. 1994 (DECEMBER 31, 1994)
COST: INCURS COSTS EARLIER
2. 1995 (DECEMBER 31, 1995)
3. 5 YEARS FROM ENACTMENT
10
ACID RAIN
OPTIONS FOR EMISSIONS TRADING
ALL AGENCIES AGREE ON AN INTERSTATE SYSTEM OF "MARKETABLE
PERMITS" FOR THE SECOND PHASE PROGRAM
OPTIONS FOR FIRST PHASE PROGRAM
ALLOW TRADING WITHIN A UTILITY SYSTEM (INCLUDING INTERSTATE
UTILITIES)
ALLOW GOVERNORS TO DECIDE ON RE-ALLOCATIONS WITHIN STATES
INTERSTATE TRADING
INTRA-STATE TRADING
NO TRADING
NOTE: IT IS POSSIBLE TO COMBINE SOME CHOICES---EPA PROPOSES
TO COMBINE INTRA-UTILITY TRADING WITH GOVERNOR'S RE-
ALLOCATION. DOE PROPOSES TO COMBINE INTRA-UTILITY WITH
INTRA-STATE TRADING.
11
ACID RAIN
PROCESS FOR ALLOCATING REDUCTIONS
O
ESTABLISH 2.5 LB EMISSION STANDARD FOR LARGE SOURCES (107
PLANTS IN 18 STATES)
ESTABLISH ANNUAL AVERAGE RATE FOR ALL SOURCES IN SECOND
PHASE
OR
O
TARGET FIRST PHASE REDUCTIONS TO TOP 20 COAL PLANTS
-- REQUIRES STANDARD FOR THESE PLANTS OF 1.1 LB.
-- 2:1 CREDITS FOR EARLY REDUCTIONS
-- OIL PLANTS MUST MEET .8 LB. LIMIT UTILITY-WIDE
ESTABLISH ANNUAL AVERAGE EMISSION RATES FOR ALL SOURCES
IN SECOND PHASE
OLD/NEW SOURCE TRADING
O
WOULD PERMIT NEW SOURCES TO MEET LESS STRINGENT CONTROL
REQUIREMENTS IF THEY INSTEAD OBTAIN ADDITIONAL EMISSION
REDUCTIONS FROM EXISTING SOURCES
13
DISCUSSION
OF
OPTIONS
14
OPTION A
KEY FEATURES
10 MILLION TONS
YEAR 2000 WITH 3 YEAR EXTENSION
PHASE I: 5 MILLION TONS 5 YEARS FROM ENACTMENT
PHASE I ALLOCATION: TOP 107 PLANTS
PHASE I TRADING: INTRA-STATE AND INTRA-UTILITY
COST: PHASE I = $0.7 BILLION
PHASE II = $3.8 BILLION
15
OPTION B
KEY FEATURES
10 MILLION TONS
YEAR 2000 WITH 3 YEAR EXTENSION
PHASE I: 5 MILLION TONS BY END OF 1994
PHASE I ALLOCATION: TOP 20 COAL PLANTS + EASTERN OIL PLANTS
PHASE I TRADING: INTRA-UTILITY + GOVERNORS' RE-ALLOCATION
AUTHORITY
2:1 CREDIT FOR EXCESS EARLY REDUCTIONS
COST: PHASE I = $0.8 - 1.3 BILLION
PHASE II = $3.8 BILLION
NOTE: OPTION C NO LONGER UNDER CONSIDERATION
16
OPTION D
KEY FEATURES
7 MILLION TONS
YEAR 2000 WITH 3 YEAR EXTENSION
NO FIRST PHASE
FULL INTER-STATE TRADING
OLD/NEW SOURCE TRADING
COST = $1.0 TO 1.8 BILLION/YEAR
17
OPTION E
KEY FEATURES
10 MILLION TONS WITH NO NOx REDUCTIONS ALLOCATED (ROUGHLY
SAME AS 8 MILLION TONS WITH 2 MILLION TONS OF NOx REQUIRED)
PHASE I: 4 MILLION TONS BY 1995
PHASE I ALLOCATION: TOP 107 PLANTS
PHASE I TRADING: INTER-STATE
COST: PHASE I = $0.3 BILLION
PHASE II = $2.2 BILLION
18
ACID RAIN OPTIONS
Option A
Option B
Option C
Option D
Option E
Phase II Requirements
Amount
10 M Tons
10 M Tons
10.5 H Tons
7 H Tons
10 M Tons with
SO₂/NOx trading
and 0 tons NO.
required
Timing
All options assume year 2000 with three-year extension for clean coal technology.
Phase I Requirements
Amount
5 M Tons
5 M Tons
5.5 M Tons
None
4 M Tons
Timing
5 Years from
1994
1994
None
1995
Enactment
Target in
2.5 lbs for top
1.1 lbs for top
2.5 lbs for top
None
3.0 lbs for top
Phase I
107 plants
20 coal plants
top 107 plants
107 plants
& 0.8 lbs for
oil plants
Targeting in
Phase II (all
plants)
1.0 lbs
1.0 lbs
1.0 lbs
1.8 lbs
1.4 lbs
Trading Requirements: All options have full interstate in Phase II.
Credits
None
2:1 Credit for
None
None
None
Phase I
reduction
Phase I
Intra-Utility &
Full Interstate
N.A.
Full Interstate
Intrastate
(and Intra-
Governors given
Utility)
Intrastate
Alloc. Authority
Existing/New
Sources
No
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Costs (Annual) ($ in Billions)
Phase I
$0.7 B
$0.8-$1.3 B
$0.8 B
None
$0.3 B
Phase II
$3.8 B
$3.8 B
$1.0-$1.8 B
$2.2 B
$3.8 B
May 17
II AIR TOXICS
MAY 17, 1989
(OVERHEADS)
Many people AIR TOXICS
Air toxics are known and suspected human carcinogens. They can also
Not tach about accidental releases.
cause other effects: respiratory disease and birth defects.
These are routine not as a result of accidents, benzene leaks from coke ovendoors, eg,
^ Toxic air emissions cause 1500-3000 fatal cancers per year (Based on
those 80 chemicals for which we have information)
Sources include industrial/chemical plants and mobile sources
During 1987 major U.S. Industries released an estimated 2.7 billion
pounds of toxic pollutants into the air from stationary sources.
THE CURRENT LAW IS UNWORKABLE
Section 112 of the Clean Air Act requires standards for hazardous air
pollutants that protect the public health with an "ample margin of
safety."
Although there are some 280 known or suspected toxic air pollutants,
EPA has set standards for only 7 since 1970.
The "Vinyl Chloride Decision" brought the program to a standstill since
it required that "safe levels" be set without regard to cost or technical
feasibility.
To implement the decision, EPA must either:
-
establish a "safe level" of toxics exposure that could shut down
vital industries
- or -
-
establishes a "safe level" that avoids shutdowns but could be
overturned by the courts. and is very hard to justify politically
2
LEGISLATIVE PRINCIPLES
Achieve reductions in toxic emissions (and health risks) as soon as
possible.
Provide sufficient flexibility to balance emission (and health risk)
reductions and economic/technological feasibility.
Adopt a strategy that continues to reduce risk over the long run as
conditions merit.
Encourage industries to make emission reductions on their own by
giving credit for early "non-mandated" controls.
3
MUCH IS ALREADY BEING DONE TO REDUCE EMISSIONS AND HEALTH RISKS
O
Half the emissions of air toxics are from mobile sources, which are
already subject to controls under the Clean Air Act. These controls
could avoid 700 cancer deaths:
-
Diesel particulate controls
-
Hydrocarbon emission controls
-
Oxygenated and neat fuels program in ozone and carbon
monoxide nonattainment areas (if included in Clean Air
legislation.)
Hazardous waste site emissions will be regulated.
Four industries comprise much of the remaining stationary source
problem: chemicals, steel, smelting, and electroplating.
Some States have already moved to reduce toxic pollutants imposing
unacceptable risks.
4
PROPOSED 2-PHASE AIR TOXICS LEGISLATION
o
PHASE 1 OPTIONS take a big bite of the problem
Phase 2 then go after the remaining rish
-
EPA sets standards based on "unreasonable risk" which allows
consideration of costs and technical feasibility
-
EPA sets Maximum Available Control Technology (MACT)
standards for major source categories of air toxics which allow
consideration of costs and technical feasibility
-
MACT standards plus early reductions through State permit
programs requiring Best Engineering Judgment control on sources
PHASE 2 OPTIONS
-
EPA evaluates residual risk after controls and makes
recommendations to Congress on the need for additional
reductions
-
EPA reviews MACT for each source category to determine if there
are significant residual risks. If risks are significant, 90%
additional emission reduction required.
-
Risk thresholds set a 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 1 million for all source
categories
5
OPTIONS FOR CONSIDERATION
PHASE 1
Option 1. Set standards on the basis of "unreasonable risk." Balance
health risk reductions against costs and the availability of substitutes.
PROS:
Avoids control for control's sake--targets risk reduction where
greatest risks occur.
Underlying philosophy of this approach would be similar to TSCA
and FIFRA, which control toxic substances.
Minimizes costs.
CONS:
Very difficult to administer-requires extensive health and
engineering data.
Implementation would be very slow.
Departure from growing consensus between industry,
environmentalists, and Congress likely to lead to sharp criticism of
the Administration.
6
Option 2. Maximum Available Control Technology (MACT) regulations
issued by EPA. Standards would take into account costs and availability of
technologies. Would apply to most sources emitting more than 10-25 tons
of toxic air emissions. Implemented by the States through a permit
program modelled after the Clean Water Act.
PROS:
This option is most likely to obtain Congressional and state
support.
Allows for economic/technological adjustments not permissible
under current law. Waivers provided for sources posing negligible
risks
Allow industries to get credit for voluntary reductions before
Federal regulations take effect.
CONS:
Will not achieve reductions for 5-10 years--conflicts with first
legislative principle (timely action).
"Best" technology requirements could result in overcontrol.
More expensive than Option 1.
7
Option 3. MACT, but obtain early reductions through a State permit
program using Best Engineering Judgment to get reductions before MACT
regulations are promulgated. Modelled after existing EPA water pollution
program for toxics.
PROS:
Best Engineering Judgment phase could be used to put in place
readily available technologies.
Water program obtained up to 75% of total emission reductions in
the "BEJ" phase.
Allows industries to get credit for voluntary reductions before
Federal regulations take effect.
CONS:
States will resist starting a permit program without: (1) additional
resources and (2) federal guidance on available control
technologies
EPA must take over permit program if states refuse to act. (Much
of the 75% early reductions in the water program was obtained by
EPA)
Industries will be concerned about a repeat of permit backlogs
which occurred during the first phase of the water permit program.
8
PHASE II: RESIDUAL RISK CONTROLS
(BEGINS 10-20 YEARS AFTER ENACTMENT)
Option 1. Evaluate risk after controls are in place. Make legislative
changes if needed.
PROS:
Most controls do better than estimated and control beyond
regulatory requirements is common to ensure against violations.
Risk models being used are conservative--overestimate risk.
Allows more time to develop less costly technologies through
research
CONS:
Would not authorize EPA to take action even if serious residual
risks are apparent and controls are available.
Industry given no incentive to develop new technologies.
9
Option 2. Require an average 90% reduction if residual risk unacceptable.
"Reasonable further progress" if 90% reduction infeasible.
PROS:
Would have greater chance of obtaining Congressional support
than Option 1.
Applies to those few sources which impose significant risks of
serious or widespread adverse health impacts to nearby residents
Waivers/exemptions available for sources that cannot meet 90%.
CONS:
Greatest likelihood of overcontrol--for sake of regulatory
convenience.
Baseline health data to evaluate residual risk may be flawed.
Waivers place a tremendous analytical and political burden on
industry to demonstrate that arbitrary percent reduction is wrong.
10
Option 3. Establish risk threshold at 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 1 million. Senate bel
Bancus
PROS:
all but 2 mbrs ?
Emin Commitee
Reductions are based on remaining risk, not arbitrary percent (Simpson
reduction.
+ Sims)
even Boanx
Can target further reductions where risk is greatest.
supported it.
CONS:
Places too much weight on inaccurate risk models and risk
assessment methodologies.
Likely to require greater reductions and be far more expensive
than Option 2. Could shut down industry if 1 in 10,000 risk level
can't be met.
11
COSTS Or CONTROLS
Annual Cost
Annual Benefits
Base Program
($ 1987 in
(Cancer Deaths
Legislative Options
billions)
Avoided)
Base Program
--
700-1200
Phase 1
All Options
$0.7 to $2.6
700-1500
Phase 2
SAD
DOWD¹¹
to maillin in rish
$1.4
100-300
CMA
$1-14
100-300 tooligh
EPA (90% reduction
$0.5
20-50
of serious risk)
Achieves risk reduction to 10 -6 (one in a million).
#S
1000 3,100,000.000
1,545,500
12
III NON-ATAINMENT-- SMOG
PRESIDENTIAL STATEMENTS
"George Bush remains committed to the goals of the Clean Air Act. We
have made some good progress towards cleaner air Despite good
progress in reducing emissions from cars, factories, and power plants,
more than 100 cities still do not meet federal clean air standards. Urban
ozone is one of the most complex and difficult environmental issues
facing this country. Ozone is produced by many sources, but much of
it comes from cars and small business. To really tackle this problem will
affect the way we work, live and play. But we must act to make
continued real progress towards cleaner air."
(Source: Statement contained in "George Bush, Leadership on the
Issues" - A collection of speeches and statements The President made
during his campaign)
"The most pressing need is to reduce levels of ambient ozone, which
contributes to smog and has too often made the air dangerous to
breathe. One of my priorities as Vice President has been to lead the
search for alternative fuels - so-called 'clean fuels' such as methanol
made from remote natural gas and ethanol made from grain - and to
promote their use."
(Source: Speech made at Scripps Institution, San Diego, CA October
14, 1988)
Ozone Areas Measuring Nonattainment
96 Nonattainment Areas
3 Severe
23 Serious
42 Moderate
30 Marginal
Areas Violating the Carbon Monoxide
National Ambient Air Quality Standards
1987-88 Data
45 Nonattainment Areas
22 Moderate
(5 areas may be deleted when the 1988 data is available)
11 Serious
12 Severe
What Are We Up Against?
1600
Vehicle Miles Traveled
1200
(in billions)
800
Passenger Cars
400
Other Highway Vehicles
0
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
120
Motor Fuel Used
80
(in billions of gallons)
40
0
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
WHAT ARE THE CLEAN AIR STANDARDS?
Ozone:
0.12 parts per million, 1 hour average
4 or more exceedances in 3 years
Ozone health effects
Acute health effects
Chronic health effects
Ozone environmental effects
Crops
Forests
Question raised:
Extent and severity of health effects
Recommendations of the Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee
Carbon monoxide:
9.0 parts per million, 8 hour average
Two or more exceedances per year
Carbon monoxide health effects
SOURCES OF URBAN OZONE
(Volatile Organic Compounds)
Control Measures
- Product Reformulation
and Substitution
CARS &
Control Measures
PAINTS,
TRUCKS
SOLVENTS, &
- Better Gasoline
PRODUCTS
- Vehicle Technology
- Alternative Fuels
Control Measures
FACTORIES
- Process Changes
10ml
- Add-On Controls
Small Operations
- Market-Based Strategies
& Process Leaks
Control Measures
- Collection and Treatment
- Hazardous Waste Control
VOC Control Is A Zero Sum Game
Automobile Measures
Mid-
Post
Near Term
1990's
2000
Gasoline Volatility
Refueling
Neat Fuels
(Dedicated
Oxygenated Fuels
Evaporative Control
Vehicles)
Inspection and
Extend Useful Life
Maintenance
Tighter Emissions
Standard
Neat Fuels (Flexible
Fuel Vehicles)
CLEAN FUELS PROGRAM
Options:
1.
Buses and fleets only
2.
50 percent of vehicle sales in 25 cities
3.
State opt out
Pros:
Presidential signature on smog control program
Makes autos compatible with long term environmental goals
less an toxics than gasaline
Provides real competition to petroleum imports
Smaller scale and parallel to unleaded gasoline program in mid-
1970's
Cons:
Uncertainties could lead to high cost
Consumer acceptance uncertain
Raises new health, safety, and environmental questions
Preempts State action and market forces
Summary Comparison of Alternatives
Consensus Controls
Volatility Phase I
Hazardous Waste Facilities
Vehicle Evaporative
Commercial/Consumer Products
Additional Measures
1
2
3
4
Neat Fuels
a. Buses
X
b. Fleets and Buses
X
C. 50% with opt-out
X
X
d. 50% with opt-out
and fuel pooling
X
Refueling Controls
a. Stage II
X
X
b. Onboard
X
Vehicle Emission Trading
X
X
Light Duty Trucks
X
X
X
Extended Useful Life
X
X
X
. uto Tailpipe Stds
X
chanced I&M
X
X
CTGs
X
X
X
Results of Alternatives
in 2005
1
2
3
4
% VOC Reduction
21
25
27
29
Annualized Costs ($Billions)
#
*
*
2.4
3.2-3.3
3.0-3.1
3.1-4.6
Remaining Nonattainment Areas
34
26
25
23
a
Cost estimates do not include the cost for the neat fuels program.
Additional State Controls
-
a. Current SIP Process
X
X
3% Progress Mandate
X
X
Neat Fuels for
Other Areas
X
ALTERNATIVE I
Consensus Controls Plus:
Alternative Fuels:
Urban buses
50% alternative fuel vehicles in 2005 in 25
most serlous nonattainment areas (opt out
permitted)
Fuel Pooling
Mobile Source Controls: Vehicle Emissions Trading
Additional State
Neat fuels required for other cities
Controls:
Advantages
Fulfills President's neat fuels commitment; creates broad neat
fuels market
Local opt-out allows cheaper measures if available
Biggest automobile reductions
Disadvantages
Lack of auto controls will be criticized
Neat fuels may not be a sole solution; fuel pooling may not work
Consumers may not buy neat fueled cars; price competitiveness
with gasoline uncertain
ALTERNATIVE II
Consensus Controls Plus:
Alternative Fuels:
Urban Buses and Fleets
Refueling:
Stage II
Mobile Source Controls:
Light Duty Truck Standards
Extended Useful Life
Enhanced Inspection and Maintenance
Stationary Sources:
Control Technology Guidelines
Additional State
State planning process
Controls:
Advantages
Fulfills President's neat fuels commitment but starts gradually
Avoids implementation problems of 50% neat fuels program
Uses current State planning process
Disadvantages
Current State planning process does not work well without
Federal backup
Lack of auto controls will be criticized
Misses opportunity for bold neat fuels initiative
ALTERNATIVE III
Consensus Controls Plus:
Alternative Fuels:
50% alternative fuel vehicles in 1995 in
nonattainment areas (opt out permitted)
Refueling:
Stage II
Mobile Source Controls:
Light Duty Truck Standards
Extended Useful Life
Stationary Sources:
Control Technology Guidelines
Additional State
Steady progress requirement (3%/year)
Controls:
Advantages
Fulfills President's neat fuels commitment
Local opt-out allows cheaper measures if available
Provides almost the same reductions as Alternative IV except for
least cost-effective measures
Disadvantages
Neat fuels program will be difficult to implement while VOC
reductions by 2005 are not that large
Steady progress requirement (3%) reduces State flexibility
Lack of auto controls will be criticized
ALTERNATIVE IV
Consensus Controls Plus:
Alternative Fuels:
Same as Alternative III but more restrictive
opt out
Refueling:
Onboard vehicle canisters
Mobile Source Controls:
Light Duty Truck Standards
Extended Useful Life
Tighter Auto Emissions Standards
Enhanced Inspection and Maintenance
Stationary Sources:
Control Technology Guidelines
Additional State
Steady progress requirement (3%/year)
Controls:
Advantages
Provides greatest degree of reductions and best guarantee of
attainment
Balances State and Federal roles
Fulfills President's neat fuels commitment
Disadvantages
Neat fuels program will be difficult to Implement while VOC
reductions by 2005 are not that large
Most costly option, especially for tailpipe controls
Steady progress requirement (3%) reduces State flexibility
STEADY PROGRESS REQUIREMENT
(Not Applicable to Marginal Areas)
Specific Measures Will Not Reach Attainment Goal
Number of Remaining Nonattainment
Areas
Near Term
Long Term
(1995)
(2005)
Existing Program
58
72
Plus Specific Measures
29-35
23-34
Pro:
Gains Support For Longer Deadlines
Equity -- First Five Years
Ensure Near Term Progress
Flexibility
- States Identify Measures
- Ability to Substitute NOx
- Waiver After 5 Years If Infeasible or
Unnecessary
Con:
Could Be Difficult To Achieve
Some Measures Will Be Costly
OXYGENATED FUELS OPTIONS
Option 1:
No program
Option 2:
Require serious carbon monoxide nonattainment areas to use
oxygenated fuel on a seasonal basis; no specific % oxygen
content requirement; "opt out" permitted
Option 3:
Require at least 2.7% oxygenated fuel in moderate and serious
CO nonattainment areas; "opt out" permitted
Option 4:
Require at least 2.7% oxygenated fuel in moderate and serious
CO nonattainment areas and in other CO nonattainment areas
with serious and severe ozone problems; no "opt out"
permitted
Advantages of Option 1:
Maximum flexibility for States
No Federal promotion of fuels; lower subsidy
costs
If other measures succed, less need for
oxygenated fuels program
Advantages of Option 2:
Allows almost as much flexibility as Option 1
Seasonal strategy lowers costs; lack of minimum
% expands fuel choice
Some support for President's commitment to
oxygenated fuels
Advantages of Option 3:
Greater assurance of CO attainment
Consistent with President's commitment
Increased air toxics reductions
Advantages of Option 4:
Greatest air pollution reduction benefits (CO,
toxics, VOC)
Fully consistent with President's commitment
THE WHITE HOUSE
Office of the Press Secretary
(Frankfurt, Federal Republic of Germany)
For Immediate Release
May 31, 1989
REMARKS BY THE PRESIDENT
AT RHEINGOLDHALLE
Rheingoldhalle
Mainz, Federal Republic of Germany
1:16 P.M. (L)
THE PRESIDENT: Thank you, Chancellor Kohl. At the
outset, let me tell you that lest you think that he has forgotten his
home state because he is the Chancellor of the Federal Republic, I
will only tell you that in the last 24 hours, Chancellor Kohl has
been convincing me that when I came to this state and to Mainz, I
would be coming to heaven. And having gotten here, I think he may
just about be right, I'll tell you. (Laughter.) Thank you all very
much. (Applause.)
Dr. Wagner and Lord Mayor, distinguished hosts -- I want
to also thank these two bands -- West German and American -- for that
stirring music. And Chancellor Kohl, I especially want to thank you
again for inviting me to this beautiful and ancient city on my first
presidential trip to the Republic of Germany -- the Federal Republic.
And Herr Kohl and I have concluded now our deliberations at the NATO
summit in Brussels -- an excellent start to our working partnership
as Chancellor and President.
And here in Mainz, by the banks of the Rhine, it's often
said that this heartland of mountain vineyards and villages embodies
the very soul of Germany. So Mainz provides a fitting forum for an
American President to address the German people. (Applause.)
Today I come to speak, not just of our mutual defense,
but of our shared values. I come to speak, not just of the matters
of the mind, but of the deeper aspirations of the heart.
Just this morning, Barbara and I were charmed with the
experiences we had. I met with a group -- a small group of German
students, bright young men and women who studied in the United
States. Their knowledge of our country and the world was impressive
to say the least. But sadly, too many in the West, Americans and
Europeans alike, seem to have forgotten the lessons of our common
heritage and how the world we know came to be. And that should not
be, and that cannot be. We must recall that the generation coming
into its own in America and Western Europe is heir to gifts greater
than those bestowed to any generation in history -- peace, freedom
and prosperity. (Applause.)
This inheritance is possible because 40 years ago the
nations of the West joined in that noble, common cause called NATO.
And first, there was the vision, the concept of free peoples in North
America and Europe working to protect their values. And second,
there was the practical sharing of risks and burdens, and a realistic
recognition of Soviet expansionism. And finally, there was the
determination to look beyond old animosities. The NATO Alliance did
nothing less than provide a way for Western Europe to heal
centuries-old rivalries, to begin an era of reconciliation and
restoration. It has been, in fact, a second Renaissance of Europe.
(Applause.)
As you know best, this is not just the 40th birthday of
the Alliance. It's also the 40th birthday of the Federal Republic
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- 2 -
a Republic born in hope, tempered by challenge. And at the height of
the Berlin Crisis in 1948, Ernst Reuter called on Germans to stand
firm and confident, and you did -- courageously, magnificently.
And the historic genius of the German people has
flourished in this age of peace. And your nation has become a leader
in technology, and the fourth largest economy on Earth. But more
important, you have inspired the world by forcefully promoting the
principles of human rights, democracy and freedom. The United States
and the Federal Republic have always been firm friends and allies.
But today we share an added role -- partners in leadership.
of course, leadership has a constant companion --
responsibility. And our responsibility is to look ahead and grasp
the promise of the future.
I said recently that we're at the end of one era, and at
the beginning of another. And I noted that in regard to the Soviet
Union, our policy is to move beyond containment.
For 40 years, the seeds of democracy in Eastern Europe
lay dormant, buried under the frozen tundra of the Cold War. And for
40 years, the world has waited for the Cold War to end. And decade
after decade, time after time, the flowering human spirit withered
from the chill of conflict and oppression. And again, the world
waited. But the passion for freedom cannot be denied forever. The
world has waited long enough. The time is right. Let Europe be
whole and free. (Applause.)
To the founders of the Alliance, this aspiration was a
distant dream, and now it's the new mission of NATO. If ancient
rivals like Britain and France, or France and Germany, can reconcile,
then why not the nations of the East and West?
In the East, brave men and women are showing us the way.
Look at Poland, where Solidarity -- Solidarnosc and the Catholic
Church have won legal status. The forces of freedom are putting the
Soviet status quo on the defensive.
In the West, we have succeeded because we've been
faithful to our values and our vision. And the other side of the
rusting Iron Curtain, their vision failed.
The Cold War began with the division of Europe. It can
only end when Europe is whole. (Applause.) Today, it is this very
concept of a divided Europe that is under siege. And that's why our
hopes run especially high, because the division of Europe is under
siege not by armies, but by the spread of ideas that began here,
right here. It was a son of Mainz, Johannes Gutenberg, who liberated
the mind of man through the power of the printed word.
And that same liberating power is unleashed today in a
hundred new forms. The Voice of America, Deutsche Welle allow us to
enlighten millions deep within Eastern Europe and throughout the
world. Television satellites allow us to bear witness from the
shipyards of Gdansk to Tiananmen Square. But the momentum for
freedom does not just come from the printed word or the transistor or
the television screen. It comes from a single powerful idea --
democracy. (Applause.)
This one idea -- this one idea is sweeping across
Eurasia. This one idea is why the communist world, from Budapest to
Beijing, is in ferment. of course, for the leaders of the East, it's
not just freedom for freedom's sake. But whatever their motivation,
they are unleashing a force they will find difficult to channel or
control -- the hunger for liberty of oppressed peoples who have
tasted freedom.
Nowhere is this more apparent than in Eastern Europe, the
birthplace of the Cold War. In Poland, at the end of World War II,
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- 3 -
the Soviet Army prevented the free elections promised by Stalin at
Yalta. And today, Poles are taking the first steps toward real
elections, so long promised -- SO long deferred. And in Hungary, at
last we see a chance for multi-party competition at the ballot box.
As President, I will continue to do all I can to help
open the closed societies of the East. We seek self-determination
for all of Germany and all of Eastern Europe. (Applause.) And we
will not relax and we must not waver. Again, the world has waited
long enough.
But democracy's journey East is not easy. Intellectuals
like the great Czech playwright Vaclav Havel still work under the
shadow of coercion. And repression still menaces too many peoples of
Eastern Europe. Barriers and barbed wire still fence in nations. So
when I visit Poland and Hungary this summer, I will deliver this
message: There cannot be a common European home until all within it
are free to move from room to room. (Applause.)
And I'll take another message: The path of freedom leads
to a larger home -- a home where West meets East, a democratic home
-- the commonwealth of free nations.
And I said that positive steps by the Soviets would be
met by steps of our own. And this is why I announced on May 12th a
readiness to consider granting to the Soviets a temporary waiver of
the Jackson-Vanik trade restrictions, if they liberalize emigration.
And this is also why I announced on Monday that the United States is
prepared to drop the "no exceptions" standard that has guided our
approach to controlling the export of technology to the Soviet Union
-- lifting a sanction enacted in response to their invasion of
Afghanistan. (Applause.)
And in this same spirit, I set forth four proposals to
heal Europe's tragic division, to help Europe become whole and free.
First, I propose we strengthen and broaden the Helsinki
process to promote free elections and political pluralism in Eastern
Europe. As the forces of freedom and democracy rise in the East, so
should our expectations.
And weaving together the slender threads of freedom in
the East will require much from the Western democracies. In
particular, the great political parties of the West must assume an
historic responsibility -- to lend counsel and support to those brave
men and women who are trying to form the first truly representative
political parties in the East, to advance freedom and democracy, to
part the Iron Curtain. (Applause.)
In fact, it's already begun to part. The frontier of
barbed wire and minefields between Hungary and Austria is being
removed, foot by foot, mile by mile. Just as the barriers are coming
down in Hungary, so must they fall throughout all of Eastern Europe.
Let Berlin be next. (Applause.) Let Berlin be next. (Applause.)
Nowhere is the division between East and West seen more
clearly than in Berlin. And there this brutal wall cuts neighbor
from neighbor, brother from brother. And that Wall stands as a
monument to the failure of communism. It must come down.
(Applause.)
Now, glasnost may be a Russian word, but openness is a
Western concept. West Berlin has always enjoyed the openness of a
free city. And our proposal would make all Berlin a center of
commerce between East and West -- a place of cooperation, not a point
of confrontation. And we rededicate ourselves to the 1987 allied
initiative to strengthen freedom and security in that divided city.
This, then is my second proposal -- bring glasnost to East Berlin.
(Applause.)
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- 5 -
Our proposal has several key initiatives.
I propose that we "lock in" the Eastern agreement to
Western-proposed ceilings on tanks and armored troop carriers. We
should also seek an agreement on common numerical ceiling for
artillery in the range between NATO's and that of the Warsaw Pact,
provided these definitional problems can be solved. And the weapons
we remove must be destroyed.
We should expand our current offer to include all
land-based combat aircraft and helicopters, by proposing that both
sides reduce in these categories to a level 15 percent below the
current NATO totals. Given the Warsaw Pact's advantage in numbers,
the Pact would have to make far-deeper reductions than NATO to
establish parity at those lower levels. Again, the weapons we remove
must be destroyed.
I propose a 20 percent cut in combat manpower in
U.S.-stationed forces, and a resulting ceiling on U.S. and Soviet
ground and air forces stationed outside of national territory in the
Atlantic-to-the-Urals zone, at approximately 275,000 each. This
reduction to parity, a fair and balanced level of strength, would
compel the Soviets to reduce their ,000-strong Red Army in Eastern
Europe by 325,000. And these withdrawn forces must be demobilized.
(Applause.)
And finally, I call on President Gorbachev to accelerate
the timetable for reaching these agreements. There is no reason why
the five-to-six year timetable as suggested by Moscow is necessary.
I propose a much more ambitious schedule. And we should aim to reach
an agreement within six months to a year, and accomplish reductions
by 1992, or 1993 at the latest. (Applause.)
In addition to my conventional arms proposals, I believe
that we ought to strive to improve the openness with which we and the
Soviets conduct our military activities. And therefore, I want to
reiterate my support for greater transparency. I renew my proposal
that the Soviet Union and its allies open their skies to reciprocal,
unarmed aerial surveillance flights, conducted on short notice, to
watch military activities. Satellites are a very important way to
verify arms control agreements. But they do not provide constant
coverage of the Soviet Union. An Open Skies policy would move both
sides closer to a total continuity of coverage, while symbolizing
greater openness between East and West.
These are my proposals to achieve a less militarized
Europe. A short time ago they would have been too revolutionary to
consider. And yet today, we may well be on the verge of a more
ambitious agreement in Europe than anyone considered possible.
But we are also challenged by developments outside of
NATO's traditional areas of concern. Every Western nation still
faces the global proliferation of lethal technologies, including
ballistic missiles and chemical weapons. We must collectively
control the spread of these growing threats. So we should begin as
soon as possible with a worldwide ban on chemical weapons.
(Applause.)
Growing political freedom in the East, a Berlin without
barriers, a cleaner environment, a less militarized Europe -- each is
a noble goal, and taken together they are the foundation of our
larger vision -- a Europe that is free and at peace with itself. And
so let the Soviets know that our goal is not to undermine their
legitimate security interests. Our goal is to convince them, step by
step, that their definition of security is obsolete, that their
deepest fears are unfounded. (Applause.)
When Western Europe takes its giant step in 1992, it will
institutionalize what's been true for years -- borders open to
people, commerce and ideas. No shadow of suspicion, no sinister fear
MORE
- 6 -
is cast between you. The very prospect of war within the West is
unthinkable to our citizens. (Applause.) But such a peaceful
integration of nations into a world community does not mean that any
nation must relinquish its culture, much less its sovereignty.
This process of integration, a subtle weaving of shared
interests, which is so nearly complete in Western Europe, has now
finally begun in the East. We want to help the nations of Eastern
Europe realize what we, the nations of Western Europe, learned long
ago. The foundation of lasting security comes, not from tanks,
troops or barbed wire. It is built on shared values and agreements
that link free peoples. (Applause.)
The nations of Eastern Europe are rediscovering the
glories of their national heritage. So let the colors and hues of
national culture return to these grey societies of the East. Let
Europe forego a peace of tension for a peace of trust, one in which
the peoples of the East and West can rejoice; a continent that is
diverse, yet whole.
Forty years of Cold War have tested Western resolve and
the strength of our values. NATO's first mission is now nearly
complete. But if we are to fulfill our vision -- our European vision
-- the challenges of the next 40 years will ask no less of us.
Together, we shall answer the call. The world has waited long
enough.
Thank you for inviting me to Mainz. May God bless you
all. Long live the friendship between Germany and the United States.
Thank you and God bless you. (Applause.)
END
1:45 P.M. (L)
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JOHN HEINZ
PENNSYLVANIA
United States Senate
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20510
TELECOPIER COVER SHEETS
Office of Sen. John Heinz
SR 277
Washington, D. C 20510
(202) 224-6324 Main No.
(202) Telecopier No.
TO: Rett wallace
FROM: A M'Elwaine
DATE:
TIME:
NUMBER OF PAGES:
(Including This Cover Sheet)
SUBJECT:
ACTION NEEDED:
ECEIVED BY:
TIME:
VMW-4/14/88
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Chemical and Engineering News, January 16, 1989
GOVERNMENT
Study Calls for New Approach
To Environmental Problems
Public policy report suggests
Harvard public policy professor Rob-
time is ripe for aggressive new
ert N. Stavins, but in collaboration
approaches to environmental pro-
market-oriented initiatives
with experts from the private sector
tection and public health. They ar-
for Bush Administration to
and government. A final report to
gue that market-based approaches
be released possibly as early as the
can supplement current regulatory
achieve environmental goals
end of this month will offer some
methods to achieve environmental
market-oriented initiatives for the
goals "more effectively and at rea-
more effectively and cheaply
new Bush Administration to pursue
sonable cost."
in tandem with the existing com-
The Senators believe the efforts
mand-control regulatory structure.
can and must be apolitical, and they
Urban smog. Acid rain. Indoor air
But the Senators are not waiting to
offer Project 88 as a guide for a
pollution. Global warming. Contam-
(make their study's influence felt.
bipartisan journey down an unfa-
inated underground water. Strato-
According to Wirth aide Russell
miliar road. The report addresses
spheric ozone loss. Just a short list
Shay, "Numerous copies of the draft
16 environmental and natural re-
of old, intractable environmental
report have been sent to people on
source issues and for each offers
problems and daunting new ones.
Bush's transition team."
novel policies driven by appropri-
Can current laws and regulations
The Bush Administration faces a
ate economic incentives. Each poli-
solve these problems? Not entirely,
daunting situation: tough environ-
ey is assessed against nine criteria.
in the opinion of Sen. Timothy E.
mental problems and the specter of
In addition to achieving the goal,
Wirth (D.-Colo.) and Sen. John
horrendous budget and trade defi-
the policy has to be cost-effective,
Heinz (R.-Pa.), who organized a
cits. The tacit acknowledgment of
fairly easy to monitor and enforce,
public policy study called Project
Project 88 is that larger sums of mon-
offer government agencies the in-
88.
ey can no longer be thrown at envi-
formation they need and industry
Though they initiated the study,
ronmental problems. What is needed
the incentive to develop new en-
the Senators felt it best to have
are new, innovative, effective solu-
vironmentally benign technologies,
Project 88 drafted by an indepen-
tions propelled by market forces.
and be flexible enough to change
dent staff under the direction of
The goal is to maximize protection
with changing times and fashions.
at the least cost.
Though the policies are tailored
Wirth and Heinz believe that the
to suit the problems they are de-
signed to solve, there are some
common themes. Basically, the au-
thors of the report recognize that
the current, command-control reg-
ulatory approaches were needed re-
sponses to serious environmental
problems. For many problems, they
are still sufficient, but for others,
more market-based strategies are
needed to supplement convention-
al regulations. The authors do not
advocate the wholesale substitution
of market-based strategies for cur-
rent regulatory structures, how-
ever.
Market-based strategies can be
achieved through tradeable permit
systems, pollution taxes and fees,
easing of market barriers, and re-
Wirth (above) and Heinz: initiated
moval of harmful subsidies. The au-
policy study on environmental rules
thors favor tradeable permit systems
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over pollution fees and taxes. And
they believe that incentive-driven
approaches, such as permit systems,
focus debate on environmental goals
instead of on the technical difficul-
ties in achieving those goals.
The authors contend that "incen-
tive-based approaches can provide
huge savings and increases in pro-
duetivity" and, at the same time,
prod industry into developing and
using better pollution-control sys-
terms. And they argue for the elimi-
nation of "market barriers and gov-
ernment subsidies which promote
economically inefficient and en-
vironmentally unsound practices."
For the greenhouse effect and
global climate change, Project 88 rec-
ommends that research be funded
to study not only causes and conse-
quences but also adaptation and pre-
vention schemes. The study advo-
cates change in existing policies to
encourage energy efficiency. Domes-
tically, the study urges offsetting
"new sources of greenhouse gases
through trading." Internationally,
the study suggests that the cutting
down of rain forests, especially, can
be halted by swapping debt for for-
est. For the long term, the study
recommends setting up internation-
al trading in greenhouse gases.
For an older, intractable prob-
lem-smog-the report suggests im-
plementation of tradeable permits
for stationary sources, and strength-
ening of regulations and incentives
for mobile sources.
When the authors meld the is-
sues of energy security to environ-
mental quality they come up with
several recommendations. First they
call for an increase in fuel-efficiency
standards for cars and trucks, some-
thing the Reagan Administration has
ignored. Then they call for added
incentives for both vehicle effi-
ciency and the use of alternative
fuels. And they ask shat the strate-
gic petroleum reserve be increased
from its current level of around 515
million barrels to 1 billion barrels.
On the subject of electrical ener-
gy, the authors recommend in-
creased efficiency through compre-
hensive least-cost bidding at utili-
ties. They also suggest that research
funds for the study of passively safe
nuclear power be increased.
Lois Ember
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The New York Times
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 19, 1988
Economic Scene
Peter Passell
Private Incentives
As Pollution Curb
IN this year of noodle-strewn beaches and radon-
poisoned pariors, every candidate who reads
the polls is a self-prociaimed environmentalist.
George Bush and Michael Dukakis are not excep-
Lions: Both favor tougher enforcement of air and
water quality standards and & moratorium on oil
drilling off the coast of vote-rich California.
But while environmentalism is suddenly 1980's-
chie, the character of the policy debate has not
#
changed much since Earth Day. To the dismay of
most economists, the Yocus remains on fairness
@@@
⑉
rather than efficiency - on how to trash the bed
⑉
###
guys rather than how to get the biggest antipoliu-
tion bang with the fewest bucks. That's why a new
environmental report, christened "Project 88:
Harnessing Market Forces to Protect Our Envi-
That's why the Project 88 report could prove
ronment," could prove so significant.
such a political winner. The report, drafted by Rob-
The study outlines a dozen ways in which private
ert Stavins at Harvard's Kennedy School of Gov-
Incentives could be used to contain pollution at
ernment, should help refocus the debate from how
lower cost. And who says it is as important as what
much to spend to how to get more from scarce pub-
it says: The two sponsors, Democrat Timothy
lic and private antipollution dollars.
Wirth of Colorado and Republican John Heinz of
Take, for example, the Project 88 approach to
Pennsylvania: are ambitious, well-connected Sens-
acid rain caused by amokestack emissions of sul-
tors, who calculate the odds before they take
fur oxides. The Clean Air Act of 1970 sets stringent
chances. Their Imprimateur confers a new politi-
standards for new plants. But there is near-unant-
cal legitimacy on economists' ways of thinking
about environmental problems.
mous agreement among acientists that a major re-
duction in emissions from older sources will be
The first round of environmental legislation in
needed to save fragile lakes and forests from kill-
the early 1970's followed à simple logic. Pollution
ing doses of acid.
threatened human health and animal survival. It
The obvious solution, bitterly resisted by electric
was up to Washington to decide how much was too
utilities, is to tighten controls uniformly on the old
much and than to pick the best technology for keep-
plants. The Project 88 alternative would set an
ing It in check. In some cases - urban sewage, for
overall limit on sulfur emissions from Industrial
example - Uncle Sam would subsidize the clean-
sources and let the private market make the micro
up. In most, state and Federal authorities would
decisions of who would clean up.
regulate private compliance.
Polluters would have a choice of Installing better
By some measures, the approach has worked.
technologies, buying low-sulfur cost or leasing an-
Auto emission controls have reduced the amount of
tipollution credits from industries that could cut
lead, sulfur dioxide and carcinogenic soot in the
pollution at lower COSL The market for the credits
air. Roughly half of all sewage is now treated be-
would, in effect, See an efficient price for pollution,
fore being dumped in rivers.
creating an incentive to fix plants that were easiest
But biltzkrieg successes have given way to de-
to fix, and by the loast expensive means. According
pressing trench warfare. Private and public ex-
to the Environmental Protection Agency, such a
penditures on pollution control exceed $65 billion
system would cost half as much as an acceptably
annually. Yet many cities can't meet clean air
tough uniform emissions standard. Projected sav-
standards and, nationwide, air pollution from sta-
Ings in 1995: $3 billion a year.
tionary sources is worse than ever. What's more,
Market-based antipolistion incentives aren't
additional environmental problems are arising at
new. Economists have been cooking up schemes
a frightening rate. Just as Washington is coming to
for antipollution credits and effluent taxes since
terms with toxic waste dumps and the hole in the
the late 1000's. William Drayton, the chief planner
ozone layer. along comes the greenhouse effect
in the Carter E.P.A., pursued such incontives in the
Both Presidential candidates have pledged to be
face of bitter hostility from orthodox regulators.
tougher on polluters than the softies in the Reagan
And a limited market in local air pollution rights
Administration. Neither, though, is proposing to
has been functioning with tepid support from the
load huge new costs onto businesses or local gov-
Reagan E.P.A.
ernments. And neither seems eager to squareze
What is new is the growing understanding in
more money from a deficit-pinched budget.
Washington that market-based Incentives could
win votes as well as good marks from economics
professors. Senators Heinz and Wirth, long identi-
fied with opposite poles of the traditional regula-
tory spectrum. are betting the time is right to fash-
lon a new consensus.
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December 1988
CO
ED
Update
A PROFILE OF PEOPLE. RESEARCH. AND EVENTS JOHN F. KENNEDY SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT HARVARD UNIVERSITY
Market Incentives Called for in Environmental Policy
"Project '88, Harnessing Market
comments, Stavins said, "We re-
discussion that will lead to new legis-
Forces To Protect Our Environment"
worked the report so it was not only
lation on environmental issues.
is a bipartisan study of new approaches
technically solid, but also politically
"Conventional regulatory approaches
to environmental policy that was
relevant."
have been effective, but need to be
released in draft form in October. The
The report recommends using
supplemented. This [renort] may help
project was sponsored by U.S. Sena-
market initiatives where possible. In
lay the groundwork for discussion
tors John Heinz (R-PA) and Timothy
the case of acid rain, for instance,
which will go on in Congress and the
Wirth (D-CO) and directed by Robert
legislation might require a 12 million
administration over the next four to
Stavins, assistant professor of public
ton annual reduction in sulfur diox-
eight years - or longer, Stavins said.
policy at the Kennedy School.
ide emissions. Using traditional
Thus far, the report has received
The project assembled and re-
methods, EPA would require all utili-
extensive media attention and evi-
viewed material on seventeen topics
ties to cut back by the same amount.
dence suggests that the administra-
from local air quality to wetland
The market incentive approach would
tion-elect is enthusiastic about the
conservation.
allow industry members, under the
recommendations. The final version
The Senators distributed a draft
eye of EPA, to decide among them-
will be released in Washington this
of the report to select academics,
selves how to reach the reduction
month.
business people, government officials,
level.
and environmentalists. Based on their
The report is intended to generate
Publications Office
John F. Kennedy School of Gov ernment
74 John F. Kennedy Street
Cambridge. MA 02138
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DECEMBER 24 1988
The greening of the
invisible hand
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
CAMBRIDGE. MASSACHUSETTS
teach an
think the next step should be to make old
Similarly, marketable emission-permits
sorts of
smokestacks fit scrubbers too, which would
could also help to reduce local air pollur-
things, which are often confused with one
cost billions of dollars.
ants, such as carbon monoxide and ozone.
another. The first thing an economist can
That is a classic example of the bad old
Since 1970 the EPA has been unsuccessfully
do is to try to set the environmentalist's
"command and control" approach to pollu-
trying to set limits and deadlines for these
goals for him: to show him how, for exam-
tion. Many of the older generating plants
substances (and, more successfully, for oth-
ple, to put a price on clean air or clean wa-
will soon be retired anyway, making such in-
ers). About 100 urban areas still violate the
ter. This does not go down well: environ-
vestment wasteful. Other smokestacks
EPA's standards, but it lacks the manpower
mentalists expect cleanliness to be free. The
would be financially crippled by such rules
and the clour to do much about it.
other approach is to let ecological goals
and would use the courts to evade them.
(such as how much carbon dioxide to release
Stricter rules, as proposed by Con-
There are cheaper ways. Project 88 proposes
gress, do not seem to be the answer.
into the air) be set by politicians-informed
an "acid-rain reduction credit" programme,
by scientists-but then to let market forces
Permit trading has already been
in which the Environmental Protection
tried, half-heartedly. Since 1974 some
work out the best way to achieve them,
Agency (EPA) would issue credits to polluters
polluters who have done more than
rather than forcing solutions on polluters by
for any reductions in emissions below a cer-
the law requires have won credits al-
law. This, too, makes some environmental-
tain target level. The credits could be used
lowing them higher emissions else-
ists suspicious. It should not.
to ease the emission standards required of
where. On the whole, companies
The market approach to cleaning up the
intrinsically dirtier smokestacks owned by
have been unwilling to get involved
world has a simple aim and no hidden big-
the same company. Or the credits could be
in such experimental programmes be-
business agenda. The idea is merely to find
sold or leased to other companies with prob-
cause their future has been uncertain.
the most efficient way to spend each anti-
lem smokestacks, letting market forces get
Nevertheless, it has been calculated
pollution pound or dollar (America spent
emissions within overall targets by the
that such measures shaved $4 billion
some $65 billion on pollution control in
cheapest route.
off the costs of pollution control.
1984)-even if that means introducing what
This would let companies choose the
Project 88 suggests that an ex-
look at first like licences to pollure. After a
most cost-effective solution-such as low-
panded system of marketable emis-
few half-successful experiments, the idea is
sulphur coal or any one of all manner of
sion-permits should be written into
reaching maturity. Two American
the Clean Air Act to give the idea a
senators, Senator Timothy Wirth (a
proper run for its money. Polluters
Democrat from Colorado) and Sena-
would be given permits specifying an
tor John Heinz (a Republican from
allowable amount of discharge. Some
Pennsylvania) sponsored a study of
companies might sell surplus permits
some 13 environmental problems-
to other firms; others might buy extra
from the depletion of the ozone layer
permits. Permit amounts could then
to the inefficient exploitation of
gradually be reduced until the EPA's
America's wetlands. The Environ-
limits are met.
mental Defence Fund and other
Thus suppose that a firm legally
green pressure groups in Washington
have endorsed it; its ideas are creep-
belches out ten tons of hydrocarbons per
ing into the language of the President-
year. It gets ten permits in 1989 but knows it
elect's advisers. And if Margaret
will get only nine in 1990. It can either scale
Thatcher reads everything her aides
down its emissions, or try to buy an extra
press upon her, its ideas may soon be
permit from another firm which can scale
voiced with a British accent.
down more easily. So any firm that wants to
The study, known as Project 88,
emit more next year, or does not want to
is co-ordinated by Dr Robert Stavins
emit less, will have to pay for the privilege.
of Harvard University's Kennedy
In highly pollured areas the price of a permit
School of Government. To sample
will be higher, because there will be a sur-
the flavour of its three dozen recom-
plus of permits in places where firms find it
mendations, consider first the prob-
easy to reduce emissions.
lem of acid rain, which is caused
The system would be flexible: it does
mainly by sulphates and nitrates re-
not need to anticipate the growth or emer-
leased into the environment by man.
gence of pollution-control technologies, but
It poisons fish, corrodes metals and
can leave that job up to the polluters-in
eats into stonework.
the knowledge that they have an incentive
Most acid-rain legislation in America is
scrubbing and cleaner-burning tricks-for
to pursue it. In one respect this is a mixed
aimed at emissions of sulphur dioxide, more
each of their plants. Companies which
bleasing. Regulators will have to learn a com-
than half of which is produced by electricity
could afford to reduce all their emissions
pletely new job, which could make them te-
utilities (much of it comes from the Midwest
fairly cheaply would sell their surplus reduc-
sist their new roles as permit policemen
and travels to pollure the north-east and
tion credits to companies which would find
(chey will need to ensure, for example, that
Canada). Large, newly built plants are re-
reductions crippling, minimising the cost of
fines for permit violations are enforceable
quired by the 1970 Clean Air Act, and later
control. Thus only those companies which
and higher than the permit prices). Many
amendments, to fit expensive "scrubbers"
can use scrubbers most effectively would fit
environmentalists, too, are likely to resist
to reduce the sulphur dioxide in their
them. The Congressional Budget Office
the idea because it does not sound punitive
smoke. Now the problem is old smoke-
thinks that such'a programme could achieve
enough. They are more used to waving a big
stacks. By 1990 they will produce 90% of the
each 10m-ton reduction of sulphur oxides
stick at evil polluters, rather than relying on
utilities' sulphur-dioxide emissions. Envi-
for some $330m less than conventional
the invisible hand of the market.
memerial erouns. And many congressmen.
regulation.
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BusinessWeek
NUMBER 3064
DECEMBER 19,1988
Editorials
USE INCENTIVES TO keep
THE ENVIRONMENT CLEAN
F
or the past eight years the U.S. has falled to renew its
commitment to & clean environment. Each new incre-
ment of pollution control becomes more costly and
generates more heated opposition. And with the gaping bud-
get deficit, it is unlikely that the Bush Administration will
commit much new federal money.
Senators John Heinz (R-Pa.) and Timothy E. Wirth (D.
Colo.) have waded into this morass. In a study called Project
88, they've come up with 2 set of promising initiatives to
supplement government programs. They suggest that the
Bush Administration use economic incentives-and disincen-
tives-to encourage economic decisions to tackle environ-
mental problems. The aim: a cleaner environment with less
political resistance and less cost than regulation.
Under their proposal, goals for pollution control would
still be set by the political process, but the government
would no longer dictate how those goals should be reached.
They suggest that an overall, national limit be set for cer-
tain pollutant emissions, with permits available that add up
to that limit. Companies could then buy and sell these per-
mits among themselves as needed. Presumably, that market
would send the permits' prices up, until it became cheaper
for a company to reduce emissions than to amass permits.
Their suggestions are sure to raise the hackles of some
environmentalists, who recall the economic incentives that
have been proposed in the past. But earlier advocates sug-
gested using cost-benefit analyses to set goals, and the
incentives were sometimes proposed as a defense of the
status quo. This time the senators make a strong case that
market incentives might succeed where government regula-
tion has failed. The Bush Administration should listen.
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los Angeles Times
Saturday, April 22, 1989/Part II
Antidote to Our Doom Affliction
By THOMAS J. GRAFF
demics, led by Prof. Robert Stavins
Economic incentives to plant
of Harvard University, worked un-
trees may go a long way to offset
In the past year the environment
der the senators' direction. What
the carbon dioxide emissions that
has returned to prime time. Inter-
they produced was a bipartisan,
contribute to the greenhouse ef-
national concerns about potential
wide-spectrum consensus support-
fect. "Debt for conservation" awaps
global warming, accelerating de-
ing economic incentives as a pre-
are a promising means to protect
struction of tropical rain forests
ferred means of accomplishing en-
tropical rain forests. And allowing
and a gaping hole in the strato-
vironmental goals.
polluters to trade strictly limited
sphere above Antarctica gripped
The report acknowledges that
amounts of emission rights for a
people and nations around the
both public and private spending
range of widely dispersed air pol-
world. The networks and newspa-
for pollution cleanup and resource
lutants is a worthwhile strategy to
pers have been full of stories of
preservation will be constrained in
address regional air-pollution
gloom and doom-medical wastes
a time of severe budget deficits and
problems. It is also a possible
closing East Coast beaches, tanker
increasing international competi-
avenue to breaking the political
spills, and pesticides and poison
tiveness. But it counters that eco-
stalemate that has blocked legisla-
scares causing consumer and
nomic or market-based incentives
tion to control acid rain.
regulatory panic. The impression
will provide more pollution reduc-
On the other hand, one should be
persists of a planet reeling out of
tion and more efficient and envi-
careful not to claim too much for
control, with potentially terrifying
ronmentally sensitive resource al-
the economic approach. Politics,
consequences just over the horizon.
location than government-imposed
influenced by science and the clash
We need antidotes to this afflic-
controls, at any level of public or
of public values, will still decide
tion. No doubt fear and anger are
private expenditure.
how much pollution is acceptable.
great mobilizers of public passion
of course, using economics to
Spending for environmental pro-
and an aroused public will be
foster environmental improvement
tection will likely have to be
necessary to marshal the resourc-
in not a new idea. Less than a
increased. Existing regulatory pro-
es. financial and political, required
decade ago, spurred on by environ-
grams should be built upon and
to address the problems we face.
mentalists and regulators, Califor-
supplemented by market incen-
But such mobilization of public
nia's leading public utilities,
tives. not scrapped.
passion 10 not enough. We also need
Southern California Edison and
public policies and social compacts
Pacific Gas and Electric, surprised
that will ettein environmental ob-
their industry when they aban-
jectives with relatively little con-
doned the construction of large coal
No doubt the political parties and
fliet and at lower cost.
and nuclear power plants in favor
interest groups represented in the
of economically and environmen-
Project 88 effort will continue to do
tally superior alternative mea-
battle on a wide spectrum of envi-
sures. Now their approach is com-
ronmental Issues. We will always
It Is here that a recent report
mon wisdom around the country, If
fight over how serious particular
issued by two U.S. senators, Timo-
not the world.
environmental problems are, how
thy Wirth (D-Colo.) and John
Similarly, earlier this year, two
much environmental preservation
Heinz (R-Pa.), may turn out to
of California's leading water utili-
we want and what we as a society
have a greater positive impact on
ties, the Metropolitan Water Dis-
are willing to pay for that preser-
our planet's future than all the
trict of Southern California and the
vation. But the key lesson of this
scare stories that have dominated
Imperial Irrigation District, an-
report is that all of us have a
the news. Titled "Project 88. Har-
nounced a swap of conservation
common interest in finding meth-
nessing Market Forces To Protect
investment for water. This water-
ods for dealing with environmental
Our Environment," the 130-page
marketing arrangement signale
problems that are cost-effective.
study addresses subjects such as
that the highest levels of the
bipartisan and relatively uncon-
global and domestic air pollution.
Western "water industry" have
tentious to implement.
energy. water resources and solid
also come to appreciate that sound
If we learn that lesson well.
and hazardous wastes.
economics should be a key deter-
perhaps we can make enough
It does not, however, purport to
minant of the future of water
progress on the major environmen-
be all-conclusive. Instead it applies
development in the American
tal problems we confront that
a unifying theme to seven sets of
West.
within a few years, the environ-
major environmental problems, the
Such success stories need not be
ment will again be relegated to the
use of economic criteria or market
limited to domestic energy and
back pages and to Saturday morn-
forces as as means of accomplishing
water issues. A market approach
ing television shows. If.so. all of us.
desired environmental goals at the
limiting the total production and
environmentalists especially. will
least cost.
use of chlorofluorocarbons holds
have reason to applaud.
A group of more than 50 envi-
great promise as the most efficient
ronmentally concerned Americans.
means of reducing the threat these
Thomas J. Graff is a senior attor-
including environmentalists, in-
ozone-depleting chemicals pose to
ney with the Environmental Defense
dustrialists, bureaucrats and aca-
the Earth's stratosphere.
Fund.
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Monday, January 2, 1989
TOM JOHNSON, Publisher and Chicf Executive Officer
RICHARD T. SCHLOSBERG III. President and Chief Operating Officer
SHELBY COFFEY ILL Editor and Executive Vice President
LARRY STRUTTON, Executive Vice President, Operations
DONALD H. CLARK, Executive Vice President, Marketing
JAMES D. BOSWELL, Vice President, Employee and Public Relations
Dos Angeles Times
JEFFREY HALL. Vice President, Marketing Services
A Times Mirror Newspaper
DONALD MALDONADO, Vice President, Display Advertising
WILLIAM A. NIESE, Vice President and General Counsel
Publishers
JAMES B. SHAFFER, Vice President, Finance and Planning
HARRISON GRAY OTIS. 1882-1917
HARRY CHANDLER. 1917-1944
GEORGE COTLIAR, Managing Editor
NORMAN CHANDLER. 1944-1960
ANTHONY DAY, Editor of the Editorial Pager
OTIS CHANDLER, 1960-1980
JEAN SHARLEY TAYLOR, Associate Editor
Caring for the Earth
Events converged during 1988 to make the state
addition to the more traditional regulatory con-
of the Earth a matter of keen public concern. Now
trols, the plan emphasizes the search for common
comes the difficult part. In 1989 the involved
ground and the development of market incentives
officials must move forcefully to translate that
for pollution control.
concern into serious public policy so that this new
The Wirth-Heinz outline also makes the critical
awarcness does not become just another passing
point that the public must be informed of the full
trend or lost opportunity.
social costs of environmental action or inaction, not
The issues will not go away. There is a danger,
just the direct outlays. Because so many environ-
however, that the enormousness of the collective
mental issues are interrelated, some policies will
problem will overwhelm a public desire to do
attack several problems at once and provide
something. After all, what can one person do about
multiple benefits. The energy-efficiency program
the atmosphere or the ocean? The United States
advocated by the Wirth-Heinz study would help
has become a result-oriented nation that likes to
fight global warming. acid rain and local air
see some bang for its buck, and soon. A dollar
pollution while also improving U.S. energy securi-
invested today to avert a global-warming crisis
ty and productivity. Short-term investments can
may have no visible payoff for decades.
yield long-range national economic benefits. Ex-
But perception is critically important. What
isting fragmented federal policies often work at
made 1988 the year of the Earth may have been a
cross-purposes or lack the public attention and
coincidence of unrelated and largely irrelevant
support that they deserve.
circumstances. The appearance of medical waste
Bush will have to decide what he thinks are the
on Atlantic beaches or the Yellowstone Park fires
most effective means of advancing the environ-
had nothing to do with the ozone hole. The 1988
mental agenda. An address to Congress is an
drought may have had nothing to do with global
obvious possibility. Or he could revive the dor-
warming. The growing trash crisis certainly did
mant President's Council on Environmental Qual-
not. But all these events impinged on the public
ity, which is supposed to serve as a clearing house
consciousness until they set off an alarm bell:
and as a coordinator of programs. Better yet
Something is very wrong.
would be the creation of a Cabinet Department
The importance of this public attention cannot
of the Environment that would consolidate the
be underrated. But little happened in 1988 that was
Environmental Protection Agency with related
new or surprising to most environmental scien-
agencies from within the Interior and Agriculture
Lists. And Earthlings possess most or all of the
departments. Most other industrialized nations
technical equipment needed to slow or halt just
created cabinet-level environmental agencies
about all the bad things that are assaulting the
years ago,
planet. What has been lacking is the public
Since so many of these Issues observe no
demand, the political will and an institutional
boundaries, the United States must pursue inter-
structure for facing the challenge.
national agreements to control pollutants and
The new year provides the opportunity for
preserve critical rain forests. The environment is
setting this process in motion. The obvious source
an appropriate topic for the next superpower
of leadership is the presidency. President-elect
summit and the annual meeting of the Western
George Bush already has been inundated with
industrial nations, leading perhaps to a global
stacks of studies for combatting environmental
environmental conference.
problems on a national and global scale. One of the
Environmental problems. from protection of U.S.
best was compiled by a 50-member bipartisan task
wild lands to the global atmosphere, seem im-
force under the chairmanship of Sens. Timothy E.
mense. Still, every citizen can have an effect. It
Wirth (D-Colo.) and John Heinz III (R-Pa.). In
begins with caring.
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San Francisco Chronicle
February 5, 1989
Marketplace Environmentalism
Environment
The conventional method of
dealing with environmental pol-
Or owners of new buildings
sons, from DDT to toxic metals, has
that use more than a standard
HAROLD GELLIAM
been to prohibit or restrict them
amount of energy would pay a fee
by law. This "command-and-con-
per extra kilowatt, which would be
trol" approach has bsen useful up
rebated to owners of new energy.
Men and women of the world
to a point, but it is only a begin.
efficient buildings that use less
move toward free markets.
We
ning.
than the standard.
know how to secure G more just
and prosperous life for man on
Instead of merely providing
If President Bush wants to ap-
Earth: through free markets, free
punishment for bad environmen-
speech,free elections
tal behavior, why not offer re-
ply market principles to the envi-
wards for good behavior? Why not
ronment, he will have a ready-
- President George Bush
use market forces to provide com-
made manifesto. The carrot-and-
pelling incentives for individuals
stick method of the marketplace is
Hthough George Bush did
and corporations to take better
the environmental approach tak-
care of this battered planet?
en by a seminal new bipartisan
not mention the environ-
report issued by Democratic Sena-
ment or the parious state
of the planet Earth when he gave
C
onsider the efforts of Thom-
tor Timothy E. Wirth of Colorado
his inaugural address on that sun-
as Graff and Zach Willey (of
and Republican Senator John
ny January day before the flag-
the Oakland office of the
Heinz of Pennsylvania: "Project
draped west front of the Capitol,
Environmental Defense Fund) to
88: Harnessing Market Forces to
develop water-marketing strate-
Protect Our Environment Initis.
his stress on free markets - even
gies. Farmers would find it profit-
tives for the New President."
ahead of free speech - may have
able to conserve water (by more
(Available from either senator:
given a signal. inadvertently or
otherwise, about what he had
stringent irrigation or by planting
Senate Office Building, Washing-
meant during the election cam-
less thirsty crops) and offer the
ton, D.C., 20510.)
paign when he proclaimed: "I am
resulting surplus on the market to
(he report has the imprima-
an environmentalist."
cities searching for more.
tur of some very impressive
in view of growing public anx-
The first major water-market-
if not strange bedfellows:
lety about the greenhouse effect,
ing arrangement, originally pro-
The Carnegie, Mellon and Rocks-
the ozone-layer depletion, the tox-
posed by Graff and Willey, has re-
feller foundations put up grant
ins in the air and water, and the
cently been signed in & contract
money, and the Environmental
alarming deterioration of the
for the Metropolitan Water Dis-
Policy Institute and Environmen-
Earth's life-support systems, we
trict to buy conserved water from
tal Defense Fund provided know-
may assume that his environmen-
the Imperial Irrigation District,
how. The chief author is economist
tal concern is more than an elec-
both of which are based in South-
Robert Stavins, formerly EDF
tioneering slogan.
ern California.
staff member and currently a pro-
fessor of public policy at Harvard.
If so, he is likely to be an envi-
Water is not the only resource
that could be conserved by use of
The document recommends
ronmentalist in an entirely new
the marketplace.
creating markets that provide fl.
mode - the mode of the market-
nancial incentives to reduce pollu-
place.
There is ample opportunity
tion, particularly from the use of
Admittedly, it is difficult to
for environmental innovation in,
fossil fuels, which emit carbon di-
think of environmentalism in
what we have called in this space
oxide and other greenhouse gasses
terms of the market, which has
(October 16, 1968), carrot-and-stick
that heat up the global atmo-
often seemed to encourage de-
economics, based on models by
sphere. The stick would be a pro-
structive exploitation of resources
physicist Arthur Rosenfeld and his
greasive limit on total emissions
for the highest profit. It usually
colleagues at Lawrence Berkeley
from all stationary sources in each
seems more profitable to dump
Laboratory. The system is design-
air-poliution district: the carrot
the wastes into the air or the water
ed to offer financial incentives for
would consist of "offsets." No one
or on the land - and the environ-
energy conservation. For example,
could increase the burning of for
ment be damned - rather than
owners of gas-guzzling care would
sil fuel or emit more carbon diox-
bear the cost of cleaning up or
pay a fee (the stick), which would
Ide up the smokestacks without
recycling or avoiding wastes at the
be awarded (as the carrot) to own-
buying an offset from someone
who is using less.
source.
ers of fuel-efficient care as a re-
bate.
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The buyers might be builders
of new fossil-fust-burning power
(and the newly recognized need to
plants or factories. They might ac-
phase It out entirely), the EPA has
quire the right to burn coal or oil
proposed issuing marketable per-
or gas by purchasing offsets from
mits for CFC use in manufactur-
various sources.
ing.
A forest-products company,
A CFC producer would be is
for example, could earn a carbon.
sued a permit based on. my, a 10
dioxide offset by planting trees to
percent annual decrease in CFC
absorb some of the CO, emitted by
production; he could sell any por-
the new power plant or factory. A
tion of the entitlement if he has
transportation agency. such as
reduced his production by more
BART, could extend its rail system
than 10 percent within the year.
to new areas, enabling It to carry
The amount permitted would
more passengers. The result would
be regularly decreased. Recycling
be to take more cars off the road
the chemicals would become more
and reduce total gasoline use by a
profitable than producing new
calculated amount. That amount
ones. and manufacturers would
would earn for BART an offset it
have good reasons to offer con-
could sell on the open market to
sumers cash for refrigerators and
help pay for the extension.
air conditioners and recycle the
The power-company officials
CFCs, including the insulating
or industrialists would be able to
form, rather than let the gas -
buy the offsets from BART or else-
cape into the stmorphere when
where, but they would also have
the appliance ends up in the city
persuasive financial incentives to
dump. They would also have finan.
diminish their offset costs by using
clai incentives to develop alterna-
innovative low-pellution technolo-
tives to the occae-depleting chemi-
gy.
cals as soon as possible.
Because the greenhouse of-
fect is global, the market for car-
The actual focus of regulatory
bon-dioxide offsets could be inter-
activity," says the Wirth-Heins re-
national. The first major interna-
port," has been on controlling pol-
tional arrangement of this sort has
lution at the end of the line, with
recently been made by a New Jer-
no attention to reducing the flow
say utility. In order to offset the
through it.' *Federal policy on both
emissions of its new coal-fired
toxic and nontoxic waste, the re-
plant, the utility will pay for refor-
port recommends, should shift to
estation in Central America. The
cutting the output where it is pro-
new trees would absorb the
duced - source reduction.
amount of carbon dioxide generat.
ed by the new power plant.
he concept of an environ-
mental marketplace has
be total emissions permitted
searcely begun to be explor-
for each region would be
ed. It undoubtedly would face
steadily reduced by regular
complex problems of implements-
decreases in the allowable
tion, but it would also open an ex-
amounts, much as car makers have
pansive penorama of opportuni-
been required to reduce fuel con-
ties for entrepreneurial innova-
sumption standards on 4 set sched-
tion in the best tradition of
ule.
American know-how.
The market in offsets would
It seems quite consistent with
make it profitable for firms to ro-
dues their emissions by more than
President Bush's conservative phi-
the scheduled amount, so they
losophy and would offer him, as a
Texas oil man, an chance to be-
would be able to carn offsets they
come not only an environmentalist
could sell.
in a new mode but a world leader
More important than the de-
in a rescue mission to preserve the
talls of the offset market would be
beleaguered lifesupport systems
the psychology it would generate,
of the planet.
making it profitable to focus tech.
nological expertise on reducing
emissions and on compating to im-
prove the human habitat. The
greater the environmental bene-
fits, the greater the profit.
Offset credits could also be
used to phase out production of
ozone-depieting chemicals like
chiorofluorocarbons. in the wake
of the 1967 Montreal treaty limit-
ing CFC production by 50 percent