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Global Warming / Greenhouse 2/5/90 [OA 8312] [1]
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Global Warming / Greenhouse 2/5/90 [OA 8312] [1]
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This is not a textual record. This is used as an
administrative marker by the George Bush Presidential
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Record Group/Collection:
George H.W. Bush Presidential Records
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Speechwriting, White House Office of
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Speech File Backup Files
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Chron File, 1989-1993
OA/ID Number:
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13704-005
Folder Title:
Global Warming / Greenhouse 2/5/90 [OA 8312 [1]
Stack:
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Section:
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Position:
G
26
19
6
3
Bill Hatch - -policy
DOE
molly 586-4767
Fred gladstein.
Mike Daris
Bred Herb Orno
Budget
>
9262
Asst
586 9220
sec
for Remewables
Reed Dutchin-9220
Call
Get
Maria -
-Reifsnyder acknowledgements
POTUS S.O.W
- McBee-
States comments
Lolson
10X more
- -McBee X6437
- States comments
- mtg.
P.04
TAB A
3
FRI@11:30
OPC Nabing Grap Grap
Proposal for Presidential Speech
before the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Control (IPCC)
1.
General statement of commitment to and concern for the
global environment and economic development.
where
reitbusite
Reiterate determination that the President will take
compraised
active role in addressing concern about global climate
respective
change.
the empol
Reiterate Secretary Baker 8 approach (spelled out in
January 1989)
Reiterate Noordwijk commitment to greenhouse gas
stabilization as soon as possible, consistent with the
requirement for global economic growth that can enhance
the quality of life for people everywhere.
Stress strong U.S. commitment to environment; e.g.,
domestic programs, leadership in forging international
agreements on environment, assistance to and
cooperative efforts with developing countries and
current or former centrally planned economies.
2.
U.S. Supports the IPCC Process
:
Stress need for international cooperation.
:
Congratulations to IPCC sponsors, the United Nations
Environment Program (UNEP), the World Meteorological
Organization (WMO) and to Dr. Bolin of Sweden, IPCC
Chairman.
Establishment of the IPCC has filled the need for an
orderly, intergovernmental process to assess scientific
understanding, evaluate potential impacts and develop
appropriate response options. to day charge
Welcome IPCC reports due in August.
U.S. is committed to playing a leadership role through
our chairmanship of the Response Strategies Working
Group (RWSG) and supporting IPCC as best forum for
global climate change policy development.
Support for UK proposal at UN to continue IPCC.
O
01/23/98 10:06
P.85
3.
Past and Ongoing U.S. Contributions and Views on Key Issues
of Convention and EmissionesLimiting Agreements
Science
U.S. budget is the largest in the world and is
rising, nearly $500 million in FY 1990 and to
increase to almost $1 billion in FY 1991.
Importance of all countries, no matter what their
level of development or economic system,
contributing to understanding of the science.
This cooperation needs to take several forms:
cooperation in assessment of state of the
science; and
-
cooperation in monitoring and analysis of
climate change.
Periodic international reassessment of the science
at fixed intervals to aid in our decision making.
Technology Development
U.S. has active technology development programs to
improve the efficiency of both supply and demand
side technologies, and reduce greenhouse gas
emissions.
-
More efficient fossil fuel generation
technologies.
1
Renewable and energy efficiency technology
initiative.
-
Conservation technology: end-use efficiency
-
Nuclear: new generation with enhanced safety
features under development.
Any framework convention should provide for
regular-aesessments of the state of technology
development to determine the availability and dess
of technologies.
2
3RPWORLD
CONNERCE? 5-
--
U.S. is sensitive to/the need for technology transfer
to other countries.
Clean coal, renewable, conservation, end-use
services for technology transfer, and nuclear.
A.I.D. appropriation bill.
100 GRASS- AOOTS?
wall
EPA/Peace Corps agreement.
Change in World Bank policy.
0
EURO'S Don't LINE.
EPA's IETTAB and DOE's CORECT program to examine
technology transfer. NOT MUCH HAS HAPPENED.
Policy aid package.
Economics
Follow-up on Administration commitment to develop
real data on costs of various response strategies
and assess new response measures.
Challenge others to do the same.
Offer technical support to those who need it.
Policy No RECEPTS: MARE
President should encourage consideration of truly
200m
of
innovative responses including:
leap
3 world
-
esp
comprehensive approach: all major greenhouse
gases are included; and
cf.
Justice
trading of emission permits. fappropriate
President should define general criteria for
future agreements to limit greenhouse gas
emissions:
market mechanisms such as "integrated
resource" planning and consistency with
economic growth in all countries; and
3
01/23/90 18:07
need to work with industry to ensure that
response actions do not adversely affact
economic growth around the world.
U.S. Clean Air Act Legislation or
Encourages emissions trading.
O
Use of efficiency energy supplies; e.g., new clean
coal technology and conservation technolog
National Energy Strategy
Comprehensive blueprint for addressing
fature
energy needs with consideration to climate change
and other environmental issues.
As first step, take those steps which
Haute
to other goals, but also reduce greenhouse gas
emissions; e.g., clean coal technology,
DIE
conservation programs.
My
Energy efficiency programs: lighting, appliance
efficiency standards, model building codes,
industrial
process improvement, encouraging utilities
II
provide
the service of electricity demand reduction,
transportation research and development,
etc.
Alternative energy sources are being developed
Renewables: hydro, solar, biomass,
geothermal.
Nuclear: new reactor design.
Reforestation: Trees for U.S. f.91 badyt
Phase-out of CFCs by 2000 providing safe
s
are available.
U.S. contribution to: development of
substitutes, assessments of needs by
countries.
4.
Reiterate Malta Offer to Host Convention Negot
when
IPCC is Ready
:
Express commitment to finding global solut
@ Matta Suamit, I propord to Bosilet that
fraty on global climate charge, ofter the arking grapa of
U.S. is prepared contence next all X that Infinit francisco
ada
smith
about
8
TAB B
Issue: How to carry forward and expand in the IPCC the cost and
economic exissions? impact analysis of measures to limit greenhouse gas
Discussion: The IPCC's Response Strategies Working Group (RSWG)
must conclude its work in the next couple of months for its
report to be written on schedule. Consequently much of the cost
and economic analysis that is beginning to emerge will not be
included in the report. Without an ongoing analytical effort,
the international discussion of emission targets and timetables
will be dominated by the countries who are prepared to make
substantial political commitments without much information on how
they will fulfill those commitments.
To move the debate over commitments to limit greenhouse gas
emissions away from bold rhetoric to & realistic assessment of
what is possible over different timeframes, the IPCC's work on
cost and economic impact analysis must be continued and expanded.
Furthermore, because targets and timetables, especially for co₂
are likely to be a major focus of attention at the fourth IPCC
plenary next August and at the Second World Climate Conference
(SWCC) next October-November, a means must be found for an
ongoing effort over the next 5-7 months.
There are three major options for proceeding. The first is
to request individual countries such as the U.S., Japan and the
FRG to conduct studies and continue to provide results to the
IPCC even after the conclusion of the RSWG's report. A second is
to instruct the RSWG's Energy and Industry Subgroup (EIS) led by
Japan to continue its analyses beyond the Spring and prepare a
supplemental report. The third is for the U.S. to offer to lead,
under the auspices of the RSWG and perhaps in collaboration with
EIS, a special effort and produce a supplemental report in time
for the fourth IPCC plenary. The latter option might entail a
significant commitment of resources but may be most likely to
result in substantive output. The latter option also offers the
possibility of bringing a number of developing countries more
fully into the process, because of a cooperative project already
underway in ten developing countries.
Position: The U.S. should promote an ongoing effort to analyze
the costs and economic impacts of a variety of targets and
timetables for limiting greenhouse gas emissions. This should
include the production of a supplemental report for consideration
by the fourth IPCC plenary. The U.S. should favor a leadership
role for EIS but be prepared to offer to lead the effort if
discussions at the February IPCC meeting suggest it would be
necessary to ensure meaningful output.
10103
P.81
United States Department of State
Washington, D.C. 20520
POLICY PLANNING STAFF
FACSIMILE COVER SHEET
Date Sent: 1/23/90
Number of Pages:
10
(Excluding Cover Sheet)
Time Sent: 9:35am
S/P FAX #: 202-647-0753
Verification #: 202-647-1965
TO:
NAME
AGENCY
PHONE #
FAX.#
Carolyn Cawley
WH
456-7750
456-6218
FROM: Chris Dawson
PHONE #: 647-3638
SUBJECT: President's Speech Before IPCC
COMMENTS:
1 10:04
P.02
united States Department of State
Policy Planning Staff
Carolyn,
EPA has included all the comments I
gave them. I know Secretary Baker believes
it is particularly important to reiterate
explicitly the points he made in his
January, 1989, speech (I've attached a
copy for your use).
I look forward to working with you
on this.
Chais Dawson
647 . 3638
Flip pos. to front.
JP. 2 coffirm our commit
3
Harest people disagree action -- vatil do, Expensive, www.reanted,
5 So many dation are now centrib. you in This soom eg-that
U.S. will contribe its aggressio carts, efforts
Supr the science. U.S. ford. to use working sci accurdwoold bere of Ariendy wankin
Bracket
add Malta
W.H. Coaf
Document No.
109727SS
WHITE HOUSE STAFFING MEMORANDUM
M
as
DATE:
2/1/90
ACTION/CONCURRENCE/COMMENT DUE BY: 2/1/90 5:00 PM
PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS: INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
SUBJECT:
ACTION FYI
ACTION FYI
VICE PRESIDENT
MCCLURE
SUNUNU
NEWMAN
SCOWCROFT
PORTER
DARMAN
ROGICH
BATES
UNTERMEYER
CARD
ROGERS
CICCONI
WINSTON
DEMAREST
PINKERTON
FITZWATER
DELAND
GRAY
BROMLEY
HAGIN
REMARKS:
Please forward any comments directly to Chriss Winston, Rm. 122,
x2930, no later than 5:00 PM TODAY, Tuesday, February 1, with a
copy to my office. Thank you.
RESPONSE:
Please memo comments intext
D. Allan Bromley
James W. Cicconi
Assistant to the President
Director, OSTP
and Deputy to the Chief of Staff
Ext. 2702
GENERAL POINTS
ON THE PRESIDENT'S IPCC REMARKS
1.
This is a unique opportunity for the President to
establish clearly the continuity, direction and
strength of the U.S. program relating to climate
change. the Watkins-Reilly memo emphasized this; the
DPC Working Group endorsed it, but this draft does not
take adequate advantage of this opportunity for the
President to reaffirm U.S. leadership in addressing
climate change on the basis of sound science and sound
economics, as well as concrete actions already taken.
2.
The President should use the occasion of this talk to
build upon his Malta announcement and discussion with
President Gorbachev and now announce that he is
inviting a small but representative cross-section of
the world's most senior science, economics and
environmental officials to participate in a seminar in
Washington April 18-19 where he intends to participate
personally in the discussions and educate himself on
these matters. In hosting this seminar, it is his
intention to improve the quality and understanding of
the analytic tools and data required to address the
problems of climate change; to sensitize the science,
economics and environmental research communities to
each other's activities, uncertainties and problem
areas; and to at least begin developing an
international research plan that would draw upon the
experience, expertise and data of all the participating
countries in addressing the gaps and uncertainties
remaining in our understanding of the science and
economics of global change.
It is his clear intent that this seminar break new
ground in bringing the scientific and economic aspects
of global change into close interaction and that the
results of the seminar would feed into this IPCC
process. We would hope to provide new information
toward the formulation of sound policy in this area.
3.
The President should use this occasion to reinforce his
Malta invitation to host the first negotiating session
on The Framework Convention. Not to do so would imply
a desire to pull back from that invitation and leave
the President open to a whole range of unfair charges.
D. ALLAN BROMLEY
2/1/90
(Lange/Cawley)
February 1, 1989
1990 JAN 32 Fil 12: 04
10:45 A.M.
[IPCC.DOC]
PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS: INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY
MONDAY, FEBRUARY 5, 1990
10:15 A.M.
Thank you, Dr. Bolin [Bo-leen]. Professor Obasi. Dr.
Tolba. Delegates of the World Meteorological Congress, and the
United Nations Environment Program. Let me thank and
congratulate all of you, for taking on an issue of such great
importance. The decisions this organization makes will have a
profound effect on the world's environmental and economic policy.
In the post-war era, we've produced the most technologically
advanced creations of man. We've also gained new understanding
-- though still incomplete -- of the most ecologically fragile
creations of nature.
But unfortunately, somewhere along the way, we picked up a
bias, that has harmed both man and nature: a mistaken belief
that there is a divergence of interests -- a logical division --
between the natural world and we who inhabit it.
Nothing could be further from the truth -- or more central
to the work of this Panel. You are called upon to strike an
unprecedented international bargain: a convergence between
global environmental policy, and global economic policy, where
both sides benefit -- and neither is compromised.
You are called upon to end the environmental cold war.
There is no invironmental cold war
internationally, not a good reference
2
This will be possible only if we understand that economic
growth and environmental integrity are not contradictory
priorities. One reinforces and complements the other.
slien
a
A sound environment is the basis for the continuity and
not new ialea
quality of human life and enterprise. And strong economies allow
nations to fulfill the obligations of environmental stewardship.
Where there is economic strength, such stewardship is considered
a necessity. But where there is poverty, it is too often a
Rswbeing is 6
luxury.
For that reason, I believe we must usher in a new era of
here
global cooperation: for environmental protection and economic
growth. For intelligent management of industrial and natural
resources. Above all, for sustainable development -- around the
world.
The United States believes the I.P.C.C. is the best forum to
develop policy on global climate change. We're committed to
international cooperation on this issue. And we consider it
vital, that the community of nations is drawn together -- in an
ordered, rational way -- to assess the potential for climate
change.
The state of the science; the social and economic impacts;
and the right response strategies: all are crucial components to
a global resolution. The stakes here are very high.
There is no question that human activities are changing the
atmosphere in unexpected and unprecedented ways. Since the mid-
3
1800s, the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has gone up
by 25 percent.
What we don't yet understand is the extent of the
alterations we've brought about -- and how they're linked to a
why say any of this 3 Remember, this is a meeting of the Intergovernmental Panel in Climate Change
significant, imminent climate change.
Last fall, many clear thinkers among them, world leaders
yea
there good tonef not in
ice
-- were citing a significant thinning of sea ice at the poles as
#
evidence that global warming had arrived. Recent observations
polar sheet ice
show that the polar ice sheets are not melting, they're growing
in size.
while both statements are true, they are
2 very different phenomena. hinking them this way is
I'm not prepared -- academically, or otherwise -- to draw
not
conclusions. But I have noticed something about the scientists
quite
correct
+
drawing the conclusions.
can be
Those who see climate change as a clear and present danger misbade
represent one distinct minority. Those who discount it
completely, represent another minority. But many scientists --
if not most -- are not ready to claim that the extent of global
climate change can now be reliably detected -- or predicted.
That may be to their credit.
insulting,
When he was observing the fervor of the French Revolution,
see
the English poet William Blake wrote, "The best lack all
below
conviction, while the worst are filled with passionate
intensity."
Here, too, we are called upon for action based on
not
observation
not media-driven emotion, or the politics of
apocalypse. The decisions being made are too important to be
compromised intellectually -- or polarized politically.
the people at this conference are Here because they care
about the issue - many have denoted their careers to
the issue. That does not make them "the worst."
4
Questions remain: about the reflective effects of cloud
cover, the cooling effects and CO2 absorption of oceans, and
other sinks and feedback mechanisms we don't yet understand.
fir Knothis group
Those questions, among others, suggest that we should attend to
what is known about climate change -- and work to know more.
Current computer models are marvels of mathematics. Still,
they cannot yet be said to represent reality -- and cannot be
expected to predict the future. Above all, responsible policy
cannot rest on the shifting sands of hypothesis and a chaos of
conjecture.
In the search for answers, the United States continues
to
working
lead the world
We're seeking hard data and new ways to improve
aggresive
the science. Because what science now knows with confidence,
policy-makers can't use. And what policy-makers need to make
decisions, science doesn't yet know.
In spite of this uncertainty, some suggest we should act
why
now, on the chance that significant climate change becomes
say
certain. Others point to the opposite edge of that sword: any
this
meaningful preemptive policies would bring only the certainty of
this
youp
prohibitive expense; conflict with Third World development; and
declining standards of living, worldwide.
H
believe we can do better. There is a reasoned middle
ground, that matches policy to emerging scientific knowledge --
and reconciles environmental protection to economic development.
no
With every word, with every decision made here, we're also
making a committment that is profoundly personal. I think all of
5
us understand, deep inside, how the actions we take now speak to
the future.
Last week, in my State of the Union address, I spoke of
stewardship. I believe it's something we owe our children and
two
grandchildren -- because the earth we stand upon is only
Heoughtful
borrowed, never. owned.
agressive and (intelligent) action
So the United States remains committed to a leadership role
on environmental issues. In our domestic programs. Our work to
andwith
forge international agreements. Our assistance to developing and
East Bloc nations. And here, by leading the Response Strategies
Working Group.
Overall, we're already doing more than any other country
to
understand and address global warming -- in terms of financial
and human resources, by more than a factor of ten.
I just proposed a budget to our Congress for fiscal 1991
that devotes a total of over [$70] billion to environment-related
work. Funding for the U.S. Global Change Research Program will
increase by nearly 60 percent, to over $1 billion.
That will allow NASA to move forward with its "Mission to
together with our international partners
Planet Earth" -- and the will fund the launch of the first U.S. Earth
Observing System, to advance the state of knowledge about the
planet we share.
In me own country,
1We've already taken many steps that bring major benefits in
their own right. Steps that make sense on their own merits, and
that will also help reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other
These should be rephared to be sensitive to the
fact that there will be many very por countries
in the audience
6
gases now building up in the atmosphere. Let me outline them
very briefly:
We want to stabilize -- and reduce wherever we can -- both
our energy consumption and our total emissions. So we're
pursuing new technology development. Creating a revised Clean
Air Act with incentives for industry to find creative, market-
driven solutions. Working out a comprehensive review and
revision of our National Energy Strategy. And launching a major
reforestation initiative to plant a billion trees a year on
action
private land across America.
with over escleagnen comities in
We're also working through diplomatic channels, and through
innovative measures like debt-for-nature swaps, to do more than
simply reduce global deforestation. We hope to reverse it.
The economics of our response strategies to climate change
in our county
are
are getting intensive study. We intend to develop real data on
the costs of various response strategies, assess new measures,
look forward and to sharing other our data with studies by other nations
challenge nations to follow suit. And we will offer
technical support those who need our international calleagues
laste frward to sharing
with
As we work to create policy to manage CO2 and other
emissions, we want to encourage the most innovative responses.
Wherever possible, we believe that market mechanisms should be
applied -- and that policy must be consistent with economic
growth and free market principles in all countries. But we will
break the hold of the environmental cold war only through
dialogue -- through a shared commitment to consensus.
no war
note: we areut doing the flus only
mes
7
If we hope to promote environmental protection and economic
growth around the world, it will be important to work with, not
against industry. That will mean moving beyond the tradition of
command, control, and compliance -- toward a new kind of
good
environmental cooperation. Many industries, in fact, are already
providing crucial research and solutions. And a few are already
ahead of us.
One power-plant management firm, just across the river in
not
Virginia, donated $2 million in 1988 for tree planting in
speech in this
Guatemala
-- to compensate for a coal-fired plant it was building
in Connecticut. And the company expects to couple tree-planting
programs with all of the new power plants now on its drawing
boards.
Where developing nations are concerned, some suggest we'll
have to abandon the laissez-faire, free-market principles that
allowed the industrial world to prosper. In fact, we think it's
all the more crucial, in the developing countries, to apply the
principles of the free market in the service of the environment.
To the extent we can accelerate the advancement of these
nations, it will take less energy for them to produce wealth: in
modern industrial countries, energy use per unit of G.N.P. has
declined over time -- steadily, and dramatically.
look freward to waler with
So we need to work with the developing nations: Applying
the power of the marketplace, considering technology transfer,
to wnle with
and encouraging industry to assist developing nations in making
quantum leaps in technologies. That will allow developing
8
nations to grow more quickly and easily -- and may help them
avoid making the environmental mistakes we older nations have
made.
As I said a moment ago, I believe we should make use of what
we know. We know that the future of the earth cannot be
compromised. We bear a sacred trust in our tenancy here -- and a
nice
covenant with those most precious to us: our children, and
theirs.
We also know of the efficiency of economic incentive -- and
that free markets yield the most creative solutions. We must now
apply the wisdom of the market, in defense of the environment we
share. It is time to heal this false schism. It is time to put
war!
an end to the environmental cold war.
Working together, with good faith and earnest dialogue,
V
believe it can be done. But more important: We know it must be
done.
Thank you -- and God bless you.
###
more here about luck the good unle of IPCC, etc
and wish them well in their entineering
effects to address this very difficult issue
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
February 1, 1990
MEMORANDUM FOR CHRISS WINSTON
FROM:
JIM PINKERTON
D
SUBJECT:
Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change draft
This speech is excellent in parts, but it tries to do too
much and is too long. Specifically, in explaining that we are
taking the middle ground between absolute faith in global warming
and absolute skepticism, we bash both sides too much. We believe
that the speech should aim to sccomplish three things:
First, to underscore that the President's very presence at
the conference speaks to his feelings about the issue. He will
be, after all, the very first American President to attend such a
conference.
Second, we should articulate the President's feelings about
his attending, e.g., the President could note that a few days
before he was addressing the issue of reducing American and
Soviet troop levels and that he considers this issue to be on the
same plane of global importance. The President could also expand
on his personal feelings about the environment.
Third, we should emphasize, as the draft in part does, that
we are taking actions and spending large sums to get better
answers on the issue.
Specific comments:
pg. 1, para. 5, line 1 The cold war metaphor is very apt.
3,4,1
"I'm not prepared -- academically, or otherwise -- to
draw conclusions. But I have noticed something about the
scientists drawing the conclusions."
The first sentence in this pair of sentences is the right
position to take. It is the second sentence that starts a series
of deprecating statements about those who have drawn conclusions
on global warming.
These criticisms culminate in the Blake quote -- it's way
too harsh, and end at 4,2,2 with "Above all, responsible policy
cannot rest on the shifting sands of hypothesis and a chaos of
conjecture" --- a veiled jab at those who have decided to decide.
(more)
2
The point is that we do not need to characterize those who have
made up their minds.
It is entirely sufficient that the President merely state
his willingness to get better answers to this controversy. We do
not need, in other words, to go out of our way in order to be
critical -- thereby causing controversy to rebound onto the
President.
5,2 &3
This is more like it: talking about the importance of
stewardship and the commitment of the U.S. to be a leader on this
and other environmental issues.
6,2,4
Naturally, we applaud the reforestation language. And
the example of the tree-planting in Guatemala at 7,2,1 is the
perfect illustration.
###
Document No.
109727SS
WHITE HOUSE STAFFING MEMORANDUM
DATE:
2/1/90
ACTION/CONCURRENCE/COMMENT DUE BY: 2/1/90 5:00 PM
PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS: INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
SUBJECT:
ACTION FYI
ACTION FYI
VICE PRESIDENT
MCCLURE
SUNUNU
NEWMAN
SCOWCROFT
PORTER
DARMAN
ROGICH
BATES
UNTERMEYER
CARD
ROGERS
CICCONI
WINSTON
DEMAREST
PINKERTON
FITZWATER
DELAND
GRAY
BROMLEY
HAGIN
REMARKS:
Please forward any comments directly to Chriss Winston, Rm. 122,
x2930, no later than 5:00 PM TODAY, Tuesday, February 1, with a
copy to my office. Thank you.
RESPONSE:
James W. Cicconi
Assistant to the President
and Deputy to the Chief of Staff
Ext. 2702
Mark C.
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY
MONDAY, FEBRUARY 5, 1990
10:15 A.M.
THANK YOU DR. BOLIN [BO-LEEN]. PROFESSOR OBASI.
All the
DR. TOLBA. DELEGATES OF THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL
und
ORGANIZATION, AND THE UNITED NATIONS ENVIRONMENT
PROGRAM. LET ME COMMEND ALL OF YOU, FOR COMING
TOGETHER TO EXAMINE AN ISSUE OF SUCH GREAT IMPORTANCE.
Also Rath, our able ORK Adama cabrief. Thank Bernttal. Ableader An Browby
THE RECOMMENDATIONS that THIS DISTINGUISHED ORGANIZATION
MAKES CAN HAVE A PROFOUND EFFECT ON THE WORLD'S
ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC POLICY.
And BY BEING HERE TODAY, I HOPE TO UNDERSCORE CONCERN
-- ENVIRONMENTAL
MY COUNTRY'S, AND MY OWN person com ABOUT your was
STEWARDSHIP; AND TO REAFFIRM OUR COMMITMENT TO FINDING
RESPONSIBLE SOLUTIONS. IT IS BOTH AN HONOR AND A
PLEASURE TO BE THE FIRST AMERICAN PRESIDENT TO SPEAK TO
THIS ORGANIZATION, AS ITS WORK TAKES SHAPE.
delive
YOU ARE CALLED UPON TO DEVELOP RECOMMENDATIONS
WHICH STRIKE A DIFFICULT YET CRITICAL INTERNATIONAL
BARGAIN: A CONVERGENCE BETWEEN GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL
POLICY, AND GLOBAL ECONOMIC POLICY. A BARGAIN WHERE
BOTH PERSPECTIVES BENEFIT -- AND NEITHER IS
COMPROMISED.
- 2 -
AS EXPERTS, YOU UNDERSTAND THAT ECONOMIC GROWTH
AND ENVIRONMENTAL INTEGRITY NEED NOT BE CONTRADICTORY
PRIORITIES. ONE REINFORCES AND COMPLEMENTS THE OTHER.
EACH, A PARTNER. BOTH ARE CRUCIAL.
A SOUND ENVIRONMENT IS THE BASIS FOR THE
CONTINUITY AND QUALITY OF HUMAN LIFE AND ENTERPRISE.
CLEARLY, STRONG ECONOMIES ALLOW NATIONS TO FULFILL THE
And
OBLIGATIONS OF ENVIRONMENTAL STEWARDSHIP. A WHERE THERE
IS ECONOMIC STRENGTH, SUCH PROTECTION IS POSSIBLE. BUT
WHERE THERE IS POVERTY, THE COMPETITION FOR RESOURCES
much
GETS a TOUGHER. STEWARDSHIP SUFFERS.
FOR ALL OF THESE REASONS, I SINCERELY BELIEVE WE
MUST DO EVERYTHING IN OUR POWER TO PROMOTE GLOBAL
COOPERATION: FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION x AND ECONOMIC
GROWTH. FOR INTELLIGENT MANAGEMENT OF OUR NATURAL
RESOURCES AND EFFICIENT USE OF OUR INDUSTRIAL CAPACITY.
*
AND FOR SUSTAINABLE AND ENVIRONMENTALLY SENSITIVE
DEVELOPMENT - AROUND THE WORLD.
- 3 -
THE UNITED STATES IS STRONGLY COMMITTED TO THE
I.P.C.C. PROCESS OF INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION ON GLOBAL
CLIMATE CHANGE. WE CONSIDER IT VITAL, THAT THE
COMMUNITY OF NATIONS BE DRAWN TOGETHER - -- IN AN
ORDERLY, DISCIPLINED, RATIONAL WAY -- TO REVIEW THE
HISTORY OF OUR GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT, TO ASSESS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE, AND TO DEVELOP
EFFECTIVE PROGRAMS.
THE STATE OF THE SCIENCE; THE SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC
IMPACTS; AND THE APPROPRIATE STRATEGIES
x
ALL ARE
CRUCIAL COMPONENTS TO A GLOBAL RESOLUTION. THE STAKES
HERE ARE VERY HIGH; THE CONSEQUENCES, VERY SIGNIFICANT.
THE UNITED STATES REMAINS COMMITTED TO AGGRESSIVE
AND THOUGHTFUL ACTION ON ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES. LAST
WEEK, IN MY STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS, I SPOKE OF
STEWARDSHIP: BECAUSE I BELIEVE IT'S SOMETHING WE OWE
OURSELVES, OUR CHILDREN AND THEIR CHILDREN.
- 4 -
150
SO WE ARE RENEWING THE ETHIC OF STEWARDSHIP IN
OUR DOMESTIC PROGRAMS. IN OUR WORK TO FORGE
INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS. IN OUR ASSISTANCE TO
DEVELOPING AND EAST BLOC NATIONS. AND HERE, BY
CHAIRING THE RESPONSE STRATEGIES WORKING GROUP.
I HAVE JUST SUBMITTED A BUDGET TO OUR CONGRESS FOR
FISCAL 1991. IT INCLUDES OVER $2 BILLION IN NEW
SPENDING TO PROTECT THE ENVIRONMENT. AND X UNDERSCORING
OUR COMMITMENT TO YOUR EFFORTS, I AM PLEASED TO NOTE
I
THAT FUNDING FOR THE U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH
PROGRAM WILL INCREASE BY NEARLY 60 PERCENT, TO OVER ONE
BILLION DOLLARS.
1
THAT COMMITMENT, BY FAR THE LARGEST EVER MADE BY
ANY NATION, REFLECTS OUR DETERMINATION TO IMPROVE OUR
UNDERSTANDING OF THE SCIENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE.
WE ARE WORKING WITH OUR NEIGHBORS AROUND THE WORLD
TO ENHANCE GLOBAL MONITORING AND DATA MANAGEMENT,
IMPROVE ANALYSIS, REDUCE THE UNCERTAINTY OF PREDICTIVE
MODELS, AND CONDUCT REGULAR REASSESSMENTS OF THE STATE
OF THE SCIENCE.
- 5 -
OUR PROGRAM ALLOWS NASA, HER SISTER AGENCIES, AND
ALL OUR INTERNATIONAL PARTNERS, TO MOVE FORWARD WITH
THE "MISSION TO PLANET EARTH." THAT WILL INITIATE THE
U.S. EARTH OBSERVING SYSTEM, IN COOPERATION WITH EUROPE
AND JAPAN, TO ADVANCE THE STATE OF KNOWLEDGE ABOUT THE
PLANET WE SHARE.
FURTHERMORE, EVEN AS WE WAIT FOR THE BENEFITS OF
THIS RESEARCH, THE UNITED STATES HAS ALREADY TAKEN MANY
STEPS IN OUR COUNTRY THAT BRING BOTH ECONOMIC AND
ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS. STEPS THAT MAKE SENSE ON THEIR
OWN MERITS IN TERMS OF RESPONSIBILITY AND EFFICIENCY,
Are
WHICH HELP REDUCE EMISSIONS OF CFC'S, CARBON DIOXIDE,
AND OTHER POLLUTANTS NOW ENTERING THE ATMOSPHERE. LET
ME OUTLINE THEM VERY BRIEFLY:
WE ARE PURSUING NEW TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT THAT
WILL INCREASE THE EFFICIENCY OF OUR ENERGY USE, AND
THUS REDUCE TOTAL EMISSIONS.
WE'RE CRAFTING A REVISED CLEAN AIR ACT WITH
INCENTIVES FOR OUR PRIVATE SECTOR TO FIND CREATIVE,
MARKET-DRIVEN SOLUTIONS TO ENHANCE AIR QUALITY.
- 6 -
WE'VE LAUNCHED A MAJOR REFORESTATION INITIATIVE TO
the
PLANT A BILLION TREES A YEAR ON PRIVATE LAND ACROSS
AMERICA.
AND WE'RE WORKING OUT A COMPREHENSIVE REVIEW AND
REVISION OF OUR NATIONAL ENERGY STRATEGY, WITH
INITIATIVES TO INCREASE ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND THE USE
OF RENEWABLE SOURCES. THESE EFFORTS, ALREADY UNDERWAY,
ARE THE HEART OF A $336 MILLION DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
PROGRAM, AND ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ENERGY SAVINGS
x
THROUGH THE YEAR 2000 OF OVER $30 BILLION - -- WHILE
ACHIEVING SIGNIFICANT POLLUTION REDUCTION. QUITE A
RETURN ON INVESTMENT.
WE'RE ALSO WORKING THROUGH DIPLOMATIC CHANNELS
G WITH OUR COLLEAGUES IN OTHER COUNTRIES, AND THROUGH
INNOVATIVE MEASURES LIKE DEBT-FOR-NATURE SWAPS, TO DO
MORE THAN SIMPLY REDUCE GLOBAL DEFORESTATION. WE HOPE
term it crown
TO REVERSE IT
NOT UNILATERALLY, BUT BY WORKING WITH
OUR INTERNATIONAL NEIGHBORS.
- 7 -
THE ECONOMICS OF OUR RESPONSE STRATEGIES TO
ford in our county
CLIMATE CHANGE ARE GETTING INTENSIVE STUDY IN AMERICA.
WE ARE DEVELOPING REAL DATA ON THE COSTS OF VARIOUS
STRATEGIES, ASSESSING NEW MEASURES, AND ENCOURAGING
OTHER NATIONS TO FOLLOW SUIT. AND WE LOOK FORWARD TO
SHARING THIS KNOWLEDGE AND TECHNICAL SUPPORT WITH OUR
INTERNATIONAL COLLEAGUES.
AS WE WORK TO CREATE POLICY AND AGREEMENTS ON
ACTION, WE WANT TO ENCOURAGE THE MOST CREATIVE,
EFFECTIVE APPROACHES. WHEREVER POSSIBLE, WE BELIEVE
THAT MARKET MECHANISMS SHOULD BE APPLIED AND THAT
OUR POLICIES MUST BE CONSISTENT WITH ECONOMIC GROWTH
AND FREE MARKET PRINCIPLES IN ALL COUNTRIES. OUR
DEVELOPMENT EFFORTS AND OUR DIALOGUE CAN HELP US REACH
EFFECTIVE AND ACCEPTABLE SOLUTIONS.
LAST DECEMBER AT MALTA, IN MY MEETING WITH
PRESIDENT GORBACHEV, I PROPOSED THAT THE UNITED STATES
OFFER A VENUE FOR THE FIRST NEGOTIATING SESSION FOR A
FRAMEWORK CONVENTION, ONCE THE I.P.C.C. COMPLETES ITS
WORK. I REITERATE THAT INVITATION HERE, AND LOOK
FORWARD TO YOUR COOPERATION IN THAT AGENDA.
- 8 -
WE ALL KNOW THAT HUMAN ACTIVITIES ARE CHANGING THE
ATMOSPHERE IN UNEXPECTED AND UNPRECEDENTED WAYS. MUCH
n
REMAINS TO BE DONE. MANY QUESTIONS REMAIN TO BE
ANSWERED.
And TOGETHER, WE HAVE A RESPONSIBILITY TO
OURSELVES AND THE GENERATIONS TO COME, TO FULFILL OUR
STEWARDSHIP OBLIGATIONS. BUT THAT RESPONSIBILITY
DEMANDS THAT WE DO IT RIGHT.
- 9 -
WE ACKNOWLEDGE A BROAD SPECTRUM OF VIEWS ON THESE
ISSUES, BUT OUR RESPECT FOR A DIVERSITY OF PERSPECTIVE
DOES NOT DIMINISH OUR RECOGNITION OF OUR OBLIGATION I
OR SOFTEN OUR WILL TO PRODUCE POLICIES THAT WORK. SOME
H
MAY BE TEMPTED TO EXPLOIT LEGITIMATE CONCERNS FOR
POLITICAL POSITIONING. OUR RESPONSIBILITY IS TO
MAINTAIN THE QUALITY OF OUR APPROACH, OUR COMMITMENT TO
SOUND SCIENCE, AND AN OPEN MIND TO POLICY OPTIONS.
so THE UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE ITS EFFORTS TO
a
IMPROVE OUR UNDERSTANDING OF CLIMATE CHANGE - -- TO SEEK
HARD DATA, ACCURATE MODELS, AND NEW WAYS TO IMPROVE THE
SCIENCE - -- AND DETERMINE HOW BEST TO MEET THESE tremendous
CHALLENGES. WHERE POLITICS AND OPINION HAVE OUTPACED
THE SCIENCE, WE ARE ACCELERATING OUR SUPPORT OF THE
TECHNOLOGY TO BRIDGE THAT GAP. AND WE ARE COMMITTED TO
COMING TOGETHER PERIODICALLY, FOR INTERNATIONAL
ASSESSMENTS OF WHERE WE STAND.
- 10 -
THEREFORE, THIS SPRING, THE UNITED STATES WILL
HOST A WHITE HOUSE CONFERENCE ON SCIENCE AND ECONOMIC
RESEARCH ON THE ENVIRONMENT - -- CONVENING TOP OFFICIALS
FROM A REPRESENTATIVE GROUP OF NATIONS, TO BRING
TOGETHER THE THREE ESSENTIAL DISCIPLINES: SCIENCE,
ECONOMICS, AND ECOLOGY. THEY WILL SHARE THEIR
KNOWLEDGE, ASSUMPTIONS, AND STATE-OF-THE-ART RESEARCH
MODELS, TO OUTLINE OUR UNDERSTANDING AND HELP FOCUS OUR
EFFORTS.
/
I LOOK FORWARD personally TO PARTICIPATING IN THIS SEMINAR,
AND TO LEARNING FROM ITS DELIBERATIONS.
OUR GOAL CONTINUES TO BE MATCHING POLICY
COMMITMENTS TO EMERGING SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE -- AND A
RECONCILING OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION TO THE
CONTINUED BENEFITS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT. AND AS
SECRETARY BAKER OBSERVED A YEAR AGO, WHATEVER GLOBAL
SOLUTIONS TO CLIMATE CHANGE ARE CONSIDERED, THEY SHOULD
BE AS SPECIFIC AND AS COST-EFFECTIVE AS THEY CAN
POSSIBLY BE.
- 11 -
IF WE HOPE TO PROMOTE ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AND
ECONOMIC GROWTH AROUND THE WORLD, IT WILL BE IMPORTANT
NOT TO WORK IN CONFLICT, BUT WITH OUR INDUSTRIAL
SECTORS. And THAT WILL MEAN MOVING BEYOND THE PRACTICE OF
COMMAND, CONTROL, AND COMPLIANCE - -- TOWARD A NEW KIND
OF ENVIRONMENTAL COOPERATION -- AND TOWARD AN EMPHASIS
Tah
ON POLLUTION PREVENTION, RATHER THAN MERE MITIGATION
AND LITIGATION. MANY OF OUR INDUSTRIES, IN FACT, ARE
ALREADY PROVIDING CRUCIAL RESEARCH AND SOLUTIONS.
ONE CORPORATION, FOR EXAMPLE, STARTED AN IN-HOUSE
PROGRAM CALLED POLLUTION PREVENTION PAYS 1 THAT HAS
One company -and
SAVED THE COMPANY WELL OVER HALF A BILLION DOLLARS
SINCE 1975 -- AND PREVENTED 112,000 TONS OF AIR
POLLUTANTS, 15,000 TONS OF WATER POLLUTANTS, AND ALMOST
400,000 TONS OF SLUDGE AND SOLID WASTE FROM BEING
And
RELEASED INTO THE ENVIRONMENT. THEY'VE DONE IT BY
REWARDING EMPLOYEES FOR COMING UP WITH o THE IDEAS. AND
THEY HAVE CLEARLY DEMONSTRATED THE BENEFITS OF DOING IT
RIGHT.
- 12 -
l know
WHERE DEVELOPING NATIONS ARE CONCERNED, SOME ARGUE
WE'LL HAVE TO ABANDON THE FREE-MARKET PRINCIPLES OF
PROSPEROUS ECONOMIES. IN FACT, WE THINK IT'S ALL THE
MORE CRUCIAL IN THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, TO HARNESS
INCENTIVES OF THE FREE ENTERPRISE SYSTEM, IN THE
SERVICE OF THE ENVIRONMENT. 11
And
I BELIEVE WE SHOULD MAKE USE OF WHAT WE KNOW.
1
WE
KNOW THAT THE FUTURE OF THE EARTH MUST NOT BE
COMPROMISED. WE BEAR A SACRED TRUST IN OUR TENANCY
HERE -- AND A COVENANT WITH THOSE MOST PRECIOUS TO US:
OUR CHILDREN, AND THEIRS. And WE ALSO UNDERSTAND THE
EFFICIENCY OF INCENTIVES - -- AND THAT WELL-INFORMED FREE
MARKETS YIELD THE MOST CREATIVE SOLUTIONS. WE MUST NOW
APPLY THE WISDOM OF THAT SYSTEM, THE POWER OF THOSE
FORCES, IN DEFENSE OF THE ENVIRONMENT WE CHERISH.
WORKING TOGETHER, WITH GOOD FAITH AND EARNEST
DIALOGUE, I BELIEVE WE CAN RECONCILE VITALITY WITH
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION. LET ME COMMEND YOU ON YOUR
OUTSTANDING WORK - -- AND WISH YOU ALL DELIBERATE SPEED
IN YOUR EFFORTS TO ADDRESS A VERY DIFFICULT, BUT VERY
IMPORTANT, HUMAN CONCERN.
- 13 -
If in a goat
THANK YOU -- AND GOD BLESS YOU.
# # #
# # #
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UNITED
UNITED STATES ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
PROTECTION
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20460
JAN 18 1990
OFFICE OF
THE ADMINISTRATOR
MEMORANDUM
SUBJECT: IPCC Speech Material
FROM:
Daniel c. Esty
Special Assistant DCE to the Administrator
TO:
Robert E. Grady
Associate Director
Natural Resources, Energy and science
Attached is a copy of the proposed Presidential speech
outline, as revised through consultations with the Energy
Department. Also attached are several sets of "raw material" to
help flesh out the outline.
The draft speech outline has been sent to Dr. Bromley as a
joint product of Secretary Watkins and Administrator Reilly. The
State Department (Zoellick) has also reviewed the draft.
Let me know if you would like anything else.
Attachments
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003
Raw Input for Presidential speech
U.S. Supports the IPCC Process
1. Congratulations to its sponsors, UNEP and WMO, and to Dr.
Bolin (Sweden) its chairman.
-
In May, 1987 the Tenth World Neteorological Congress asked
the Executive Council of the World Meteorological Organization
(WMO), in cooperation with the U.N. Environment Programme (UNEP)
"to arrange appropriate mechanisms to undertake further
developments of scientific and other aspects of greenhouse
gases."
-
In June 1987, the WMO Executive Council (which consists o
representatives of WMO member countries) and the UNEP Governing
Council (which is made up of representatives of essentially the
same countries) responded by asking the Secretary-General of WMO,
Professor Obasi, and the Executive Director of UNEP, Dr. Tolba to
cooperate in the establishment of an intergovernmental mechanism
to carry out the intentions of the Tenth Congress.
-
The IPCC was established after subsequent discussions.
-
The first session of the IPCC was held in Geneva,
Switzerland, on November 9-11, 1988. It was attended by
representatives of 30 countries and 18 international
organizations.
-
Dr. Bert Bolin of Sweden, a senior science advisor to the
government of Sweden, was elected Chairman. Dr. Bolin is
generally recognized as an outstanding chairman -- even handed,
adroit, with an excellent, understated sense of humor.
2. U.S. saw a need for an orderly, intergovernmental process to
assess scientific understanding, evaluate potential impacts and
develop appropriate response strategies.
-
The issue of global climate change began to emerge as an
important public policy issue during early and mid nineteen
eighties as the earth experienced some of the hottest years in
No
the last century (5 of the 10 hottest years in the last 100 have
occurred in the 1980s) and as evidence of a significant build-up
in the atmosphere of certain "greenhouse gases" became more
widely known.
-
During the early and mid 1980s, discussion of the issue took
place largely in the context of a number of loosely resulted,
albeit important conferences.
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-
As the implication of the issue becams clearer, the ,U.S. and
a number of the countries began to perceive the need to address
the issue through an on-going, international process that spann
the broad range of relevant issues and expertise.
-
This led to the proposals by the Tenth World Meteorological
Congress, the WMO Executive Council, and the UNEP Governing
Council.
3.
IPCC has filled that role.
-
Participation in the IPCC has increased continuously and now
includes over 50 nations, hundreds of scientists and policy
makers, and many non-governmental and international
organizations.
-
The work of the IPCC is carried out through three major
working groups:
The Working Group on Science, chaired by the United
Kingdom, is reviewing and assessing the existing scientific
information on, and understanding of, global climate change.
The Working Group on Impacts, chaired by the USSR, is
assessing the potential environmental and socio-economic
impacts of global climate change.
The Response Strategies Working Group, chaired by the U.S.,
is identifying and assessing possible strategies for
responding to global climate change -- both by limiting
greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to climate change.
4.
Welcome the IPCC reports due in August.
-
The three working groups will complete their reports to the
IPCC late this Spring. The overall IPCC report will be prepared
during the Summer and considered by the full IPCC at a meeting in
Stockholm at the end of August. It will then be forwarded to
UNEP and WMO and considered by the U.N. General Assembly next
Fall and at the Second World Climate Conference (swee) during the
last week of October and first week of November.
5. U.S. is committed to playing a leadership role and
supporting the IPCC as the best forum for global climate change
policy development.
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3,
-
The IPCC is the best forum for global climate change policy
development because: (a) it is focused exclusively on the
issue; (b) its program of work addresses the broad range of
relevant issues, not just e.g. emission reduction; (c) it has
successfully involved the broad range of necessary expertise;
(d) it is not overly politicized; and (e) it is truly
international, with over 50 countries currently involved and more
becoming involved. Essentially, it has proved a productive and
increasingly popular forum for international analysis and
discussion of the issue.
-
The President is committed to playing a leadership role in
the international community's efforts to address global climate
change. The U.S. is playing a major leadership role in the IPCC
and has provided substantial financial and analytic support for
all major IPCC activities.
6.
Support the UK proposal at the UN to continue the IPCC
-
In her speech on November 9, 1989, to the UN General
Assembly, Prime Minister Thatcher proposed the continuation of
No
the IPCC after it submite its interim report next Fall so that it
can provide an authoritative scientific basis for the negotiation
of protocols to a framework convention. We should strongly
support this proposal and broaden its rationale to include the
need for a sound analytical basis, broadly construed to include
analysis of the administrative and technical feasibility, costs
and economic consequences of future protocols. There will be a
NOI
need for years to come to (a) continually improve and
periodically assess our scientific understanding of global
climate change and its impacts, and (b) develop and evaluate
response measures.
No
MackSopton
nutment
to Deality of watering.
1.e- her pobing is chay, Pere - Butdon't frame it
/assump. of warring.
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RAW MATERIAL FOR A PRESIDENTIAL SPEECH TO THE IPCC
Section 5:
1. The Clean Air Act
I have submitted to Congress extensive revisions to the Clean
Air Act which should result not only in cleaning the nation's air,
but in reducing greenhouse gas emissions as well. Powerful
incentives exist in our acid rain program for conserving energy.
These will reduce carbon diexide emissions from electric utilities
by about 75 million tons. The alternative transportation fuels
program in the bill also offers the potential for reductions in
emissions, up to 60 million tons, depending on what fuels make it
to the market.
2. Energy Conservation Program.
Since taking office, my Administration has proposed or
promulgated energy efficiency standards for refrigerators,
dishwashers, washing machines, and dryers. Together, these will
reduce emissions by around 15 million tons. In addition, I have
submitted 8 request to Congress to increase the size of DOE's
Conservation Program by $150 million.
3. Alternative Energy Sources
to be provided by DOE
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Reforestation
The U.S. is firmly committed to positive action in response
to threats imposed by global climate change. One immediate and
tangible action which I have called for is a major reforestation
program within the U.S. I am calling upon all Americans to join
in a twenty-year program to plant and maintain twenty billion
trees. We expect to provide up to $175 million per year to support
programs ranging from urban tree planting, to sharing the cost of
large tree plantations, to enhancing the quality and ultimately the
biological yield of existing timber stands.
Complimenting these public investments, I have called for a
private, non-profit foundation called the "America the Beautiful
Foundation", which would capitalize a fund of potentially billions
of private dellars, the yield of which will be used to support tree
planting and maintenance throughout the United States. The
objectives of these tree planting programs will be to absorb from
5 to 10 percent of U.S. carbon dioxide emissions, as well as
enhance water quality and wildlife habitat.
5. Chloroflourocarbons (CFCs)
These currently account for 25% of the current U.S.
contribution to global warming. In addition to possibly affecting
the climate system, these substances also are responsible for the
depletion of the ozone layer. I fully support the international
efforts to fully phaseout production of these substances by the
year 2000. In addition, the US is aggressively working with
developing countries to assist them in making the transition to
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substitute chemicals. For example, we are working with the
refrigeration industry to facilitate CFC substitution in China and
we are sending technical missions to Brazil, Egypt and Mexico.
6. State Initiatives
The States deserve significant credit for their contributions
to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Their efforts include
programs to increase energy efficiency in homes, offices, and
industries, to expand the use of alternative fuels in the
transportation sector, and to plant trees. Several states have
even mandated general greenhouse gas emissions reduction efforts.
For example, the Governor of New Jersey recently signed an
executive order requiring state agencies to implement measures
designed to reduce energy and CFC use and to maximize the number
of trees in New Jersey. The oregon legislature has mandated that
the state reduce emissions of greenhouse gases by 20% by 2005.
Almost every state has implemented energy efficiency programs.
An example of a program that has successfully reduced energy
consumption in industry is the Energy Advisory Service to Industry
in New York. In 1988, CO2 reductions attributable to this program
were approximately 682,000 tons, while consumers saved more than
$60 million in energy costs. In California, the South Coast Air
Quality Management District is implementing stringent air quality
standards that will eventually require substantial use of
alternative fuels. (However, this plan calls for the use of
methanol fuel, which, if derived from natural gas, is only slightly
less carbon intensive than coal, and, if derived from coal, is 50-
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:
75% more carbon intensive than coal.)
In addition to individual programs, a number of states are now
undertaking "Least-Cost Utility Planning" which requires utilities
to undertake the least cost alternative to providing power, which
is also often the option with the lowest greanhouse gas emissions,
i.e., energy efficiancy. A few states, such as Wisconsin, New York
and Oregon, are taking this a step further by applying an
environmental weighting factor in competitive bidding procedures
for private power supply options. This tends to encourage natural
gas and non-fossil sources of energy.
States are also undertaking their own tree planting programs
geared toward reducing carbon dioxide. The States of North Dakota
and Missouri, for example, have astablished tree planting programs.
oh
The former has set a target of 100 million trees by 2000.
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EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY
WASHINGTON. D.C. 20506
DATE:
1-25-90
TO:
Mark Lange
ADDRESS:
Speechwriting
TELPHONE NUMBER: 2830 2903
FAX NUMBER:
6218
FROM:
hancy trayaand
TELEPHONE NUMBER: (456) 6202
FAX NUMBER:
(202) 395
9
NUMBER OF PAGES, INCLUDING COVER SHEET:
SPECIAL INSTRUCTION:
This is what we have
01/23/90 10:08
Ea
P.10
9.
PRESS
DEPARTMENTOF STATE
PR NO. 11
January 30, 1989
REMARKS BY
THE HONORABLE JAMES A. BAKER III
SECRETARY OF STATE
BEFORE THE
RESPONSE STRATEGIES WORKING GROUP
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
DEPARTMENT OF STATE
JANUARY 30, 1989
Thank you Fred Bernthal, Professor Bolin, ladies and
gentlemen. I am very pleased to have the opportunity to join
you this morning, however briefly, and to welcome you to the
Department of State. You are the first official group that
I've had the pleasure of welcoming to the Department.
I would also like to welcome Bill Reilly, who is here with us
this morning - President of the World Wildlife Fund and the
Conservation Foundation. Bill has let President Bush talk him
into becoming the nominee for the post of Administrator of the
United States Environmental Protection Agency, and it's my
fervent hope, Bill, that nothing you hear at this conference
this morning will cause you to change your mind.
The truth is, though, as I don't need to tell those of you who
are here, we face some very difficult problems. It is also
true, though, that we now recognize them to be problems, and in
my experience in government that -is at least half of the battle.
Some months ago President Bush said, "We face the prospect of
being trapped on a boat that we have irreparably damaged -- not
by the cataclysm of war, but by the slow neglect of a vessel we
believed to be impervious to our abuse. 11
The establishment of the Intergovernment Panel on Climate
Change and this meeting of the Panel's Response Strategies
Working Group, I think, shows beyond a doubt that this is a
transnational issue. We are all in the same boat. And as I
put it in my testimony to the Senate recently, "The tides and
the winds can spread environmental damages to continents and
hemispheres far removed from the immediate disasters."
For further Information contact:
01/23/90 10:09
D9
P.11
10
PR NO. 11
--2-
So, if I may borrow a phrase from the environmentalists, the
political ecology is now ripe for action. We know that we need
to act, and we also know that we need to act together. That is
what this meeting is all about.
But I would take it even a step further. One of the big
advantages of being Secretary of State is that because I am not
a scientist, I am, therefore, not called upon to assess the
evidence, especially on global climate change. Yet it is also
clear, I think, that we face more than simply a scientific
problem. It is also a diplomatic problem of when and how we
take action. And here, if I might, I would like to make four
points.
Not
The first is that we can probably not afford to wait until all
of the uncertainties have been resolved before we do act. Time
the
will not make the problem go away.
The second is that while scientists refine the state of our almost
knowledge, we should focus immediately on prudent steps that
are already justified on grounds other than climate change.
oh
These include reducing CFC emissions, greater energy efficiency
and reforestation.
The third is that whatever global solutions to global climate
change are considered, they should be as specific and
cost-effective as they can possibly be.
The fourth is that those solutions will be most effective if
they transcend the great fault line of our times, the need to
reconcile the transcendent requirements for both economic
development and a safe environment.
Without in any way downgrading the difficulty of the task, I
would conclude, ladies and gentlemen, by noting that progress
generally results when common interests are joined to a common
understanding. This meeting and others like it will play a
crucial role in moving us all toward that common understanding
of what we must do to protect and to preserve our environment.
Thank you very much for having me this morning, and Godspeed.
****
30-50grs -- we we have the sci are should do stript
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Source: Dan Reifsnyder, State Department: Global Change
647-4069
WHEN/WHERE:
Monday, February 5
Georgetown University, Leavey Conference Center
10:15 a.m. (approx.)
WHO:
POTUS will be addressing the 3rd Plenary Session
of the IPCC
BACKGROUND:
The IPCC is a program under the auspices of the UN
Environment Program and the World
Meteorological Organization. The group was
formed in 1988 as an initial effort to
study the science, impact, and necessary
responses to global change. Its 1st session
was held in November '88, the 2nd in July '89
(this is the third meeting).
The panel is composed of 3 working groups:
(1) Science, chaired by the UK;
(2) Impacts, chaired by the USSR;
(3) Strategic Responses, chaired by the US.
The purpose of this session is to focus on the
efforts of the three working groups and put
together a 1st assessment report in June.
They will meet again in August in Sweden
for the final plenary and the report will
be issued in October at the 2nd World
Climate Conference.
The US delegation is hosting this session. They
are expecting 50 national delegations plus
various non-governmental organizations. This
N350
means 250-300 guests plus Americans involved.
total
The "head table" and speaking order is as
follows: IPCC Chairman Bert Bolin (Sweden)
will open the session and introduce POTUS;
President Bush; Secretary General of the
tEa.P. Obasi
World Meteorological Organization Mr. Obasi
(Nigeria) ; Executive Secretary of the UN
Environment Program Mr. Tolba.
Dr. MK. Tolba
They are considering a VIP seating section
for members of Congress and agency heads that
will inevitably attend. Dan Reifsnyder will
get back to me concerning acknowledgements.
NOTE: Dr. Hecht, of the EPA office involved in this, told
me that Bill Reilly and Admiral Watkins collaborated
on a memo to Mr. Bromley (Domestic Policy Chair for
this issue). This memo supposedly incorporates
guidance from the EPA and Energy as well as ideas
from State/Baker. Action apparently has yet to be
taken and everyone is waiting for Bromley to pow WOW
with Sununu and decide on US policy.
As of 1/27- Bromby & Sunnamis
minds apparently still Raven't met
recent successor
inteldiction
&
money
seisal
2
\ 3:30-mas. Si
gordon Blackpure
(Lange/Cawley)
February 4, 1989
3:30 P.M.
[IPCC.DOC]
PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS: INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY
MONDAY, FEBRUARY 5, 1990
10:15 A.M.
Thank you, Dr. Bolin [Bo-leen]. Professor Obasi. Dr.
Tolba. Delegates of the World Meteorological Organization, and
the United Nations Environment Program. Let me commend all of
you, for coming together to examine an issue of such great
importance. The recommendations this distinguished organization
makes can have a profound effect on the world's environmental and
economic policy.
By being here today, I hope to underscore concern -- my
country's, and my own -- about environmental stewardship; and to
reaffirm our commitment to finding responsible solutions. It is
both an honor and a pleasure to be the first American President
to speak to this organization, as its work takes shape.
You are called upon to develop recommendations which strike
a difficult yet critical international bargain: a convergence
between global environmental policy, and global economic policy.
A bargain where both perspectives benefit -- and neither is
compromised.
As experts, you understand that economic growth and
environmental integrity are not contradictory priorities. One
reinforces and complements the other. Each, a partner. Both are
crucial.
2
A sound environment is the basis for the continuity and
quality of human life and enterprise. Clearly, strong economies
allow nations to fulfill the obligations of environmental
stewardship. Where there is economic strength, such protection
is possible. But where there is poverty, the competition for
resources gets tougher. Stewardship suffers.
For all of these reasons, I sincerely believe we must do
everything in our power to promote global cooperation: For
environmental protection and economic growth. For intelligent
management of our natural resources and efficient use of our
industrial capacity. And above all, for sustainable and
environmentally sensitive development -- around the world.
The United States is strongly committed to the I.P.C.C.
process of international cooperation on global climate change.
We consider it vital, that the community of nations be drawn
together -- in an orderly, disciplined, rational way -- to review
the history of our global environment, to assess the potential
for future climate change, and to develop effective programs.
The state of the science; the social and economic impacts;
and the appropriate strategies -- all are crucial components to a
global resolution. The stakes here are very high; the
consequences, very significant.
The United States remains committed to aggressive and
thoughtful action on environmental issues. Last week, in my
State of the Union address, I spoke of stewardship, because I
believe it's something we owe ourselves, our children and their
3
children.
So we are renewing the ethic of stewardship in our
domestic programs. In our work to forge international
agreements. In our assistance to developing and East Bloc
nations. And here, by chairing the Response Strategies Working
Group.
I have just submitted a budget to our Congress for fiscal
1991. It includes over $2 billion in new spending to protect the
environment. And, underscoring our commitment to your efforts, I
am pleased to note that funding for the U.S. Global Change
Research Program will increase by nearly 60 percent, to over one
billion dollars.
That commitment, by far the largest ever made by any nation,
reflects our determination to improve our understanding of the
science of climate change.
We are working with our neighbors around the world to
enhance global monitoring and data management, improve analysis,
reduce the uncertainty of predictive models, and conduct regular
reassessments of the state of the science.
Our program allows NASA, her sister agencies, and all our
international partners, to move forward with the "Mission to
Planet Earth." That will initiate the U.S. Earth Observing
System, in cooperation with Europe and Japan, to advance the
state of knowledge about the planet we share.
Furthermore, even as we wait for the benefits of this
research, the United States has already taken many steps in our
4
country that bring both economic and environmental benefits.
Steps that make sense on their own merits in terms of
responsibility and efficiency, which help reduce emissions of
CFC's, carbon dioxide, and other pollutants now entering the
atmosphere. Let me outline them very briefly:
We are pursuing new technology development that will
increase the efficiency of our energy use, and thus reduce total
emissions.
We're crafting a revised Clean Air Act with incentives for
our private sector to find creative, market-driven solutions to
enhance air quality.
We've launched a major reforestation initiative to plant a
billion trees a year on private land across America.
And we're working out a comprehensive review and revision of
our National Energy Strategy, with initiatives to increase energy
efficiency and the use of renewable sources. These efforts,
already underway, are the heart of a $336 million Department of
Energy program, and are expected to produce energy savings
through the year 2000 of over $30 billion -- while achieving
significant pollution reduction. Quite a return on investment.
We're also working through diplomatic channels with our
colleagues in other countries, and through innovative measures
like debt-for-nature swaps, to do more than simply reduce global
deforestation. We hope to reverse it -- not unilaterally, but by
working with our international neighbors.
The economics of our response strategies to climate change
5
are getting intensive study in America. We are developing real
data on the costs of various strategies, assessing new measures,
and encouraging other nations to follow suit. And we look
forward to sharing this knowledge and technical support with our
international colleagues.
As we work to create policy and agreements on action, we
want to encourage the most creative, effective approaches.
Wherever possible, we believe that market mechanisms should be
applied -- and that our policies must be consistent with economic
growth and free market principles in all countries. Our
development efforts and our dialogue can help us reach effective
and acceptable solutions.
Last December at Malta, in my meeting with President
Gorbachev, I proposed that the United States offer a venue for
the first negotiating session for a framework convention, once
the I.P.C.C. completes its work. I reiterate that invitation
here, and look forward to your cooperation in that agenda.
We all know that human activities are changing the
atmosphere in unexpected and unprecedented ways. Much remains to
be done. Many questions remain to be answered. Together, we
have a responsibility to ourselves and the generations to come,
to fulfill our stewardship obligations. But that responsibility
demands that we do it right.
We acknowledge a broad spectrum of views on these issues,
but our respect for a diversity of perspective does not diminish
our recognition of our obligation -- or soften our will to
6
produce policies that work. Some may be tempted to exploit
legitimate concerns for political positioning. Our
responsibility is to maintain the quality of our approach, our
commitment to sound science, and an open mind to policy options.
So the United States will continue its efforts to improve
our understanding of climate change -- to seek hard data,
accurate models, and new ways to improve the science -- and
determine how best to meet these challenges. Where politics and
opinion have outpaced the science, we are accelerating our
support of the technology to bridge that gap. And we. are
committed to coming together periodically, for international
assessments of where we stand.
Therefore, this spring, the United States will host a White
House conference on science and economic research on the
environment -- convening top officials from a representative
group of nations, to bring together the three essential
disciplines: science, economics, and ecology. They will share
their knowledge, assumptions, and state-of-the-art research
models, to outline our understanding and help focus our efforts.
I look forward to participating in this seminar, and to learning
from its deliberations.
Our goal continues to be matching policy commitments to
emerging scientific knowledge -- and a reconciling of
environmental protection to the continued benefits of economic
development. And as Secretary Baker observed a year ago,
whatever global solutions to climate change are considered, they
7
should be as specific and as cost-effective as they can possibly
be.
If we hope to promote environmental protection and economic
growth around the world, it will be important not to work in
conflict, but with our industrial sectors. That will mean moving
beyond the practice of command, control, and compliance --toward
a new kind of environmental cooperation -- and toward an emphasis
on pollution prevention, rather than mere mitigation and
litigation. Many of our industries, in fact, are already
providing crucial research and solutions.
One corporation, for example, started an in-house program
called Pollution Prevention Pays, that has saved the company well
over half a billion dollars since 1975 -- and prevented 112,000
tons of air pollutants, 15,000 tons of water pollutants, and
almost 400,000 tons of sludge and solid waste from being released
into the environment. They've done it by rewarding employees for
coming up with the ideas. And they have clearly demonstrated the
benefits of doing it right.
Where developing nations are concerned, some argue we'll
have to abandon the free-market principles of prosperous
economies. In fact, we think it's all the more crucial in the
developing countries, to harness incentives of the free
enterprise system, in the service of the environment.
I believe we should make use of what we know. We know that
the future of the earth must not be compromised. We bear a
sacred trust in our tenancy here -- and a covenant with those
8
most precious to us: our children, and theirs. We also know of
the efficiency of incentives -- and that well-informed free
markets yield the most creative solutions. We must now apply the
wisdom of that market, the power of those forces, in defense of
the environment we cherish.
Working together, with good faith and earnest dialogue, I
believe we can reconcile vitality with environmental protection.
Let me commend you on your outstanding work -- and wish you all
deliberate speed in your efforts to address a very difficult, but
very important, human concern.
Thank you -- and God bless you.
# # #
base3 copies w/ guard
(Lange/Cawley)
February 4, 1989
1:45 P.M.
[IPCC.DOC]
PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS: INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY
MONDAY, FEBRUARY 5, 1990
10:15 A.M.
Thank you, Dr. Bolin [Bo-leen]. Professor Obasi. Dr.
Tolba. Delegates of the World Meteorological Organization, and
the United Nations Environment Program. Let me commend all of
you, for coming together to examine an issue of such great
importance. The recommendations this distinguished organization
makes can have a profound effect on the world's environmental and
economic policy.
By being here today, I hope to underscore concern -- my
country's, and my own -- about environmental stewardship; and to
reaffirm our commitment to finding responsible solutions. It is
both an honor and a pleasure to be the first American President
to speak to this organization, as its work takes shape.
You are called upon to develop recommendations which strike
a difficult yet critical international bargain: a convergence
between global environmental policy, and global economic policy.
A bargain where both perspectives benefit -- and neither is
compromised.
As experts, you understand that economic growth and
environmental integrity are not contradictory priorities. One
reinforces and complements the other. Each, a partner. Both are
crucial.
2
A sound environment is the basis for the continuity and
quality of human life and enterprise. Clearly, strong economies
allow nations to fulfill the obligations of environmental
stewardship. Where there is economic strength, such protection
is possible. But where there is poverty, the competition for
resources gets tougher. Stewardship suffers.
For all of these reasons, I sincerely believe we must do
everything in our power to promote global cooperation: For
environmental protection and economic growth. For intelligent
management of our natural resources and efficient use of our
industrial capacity. And above all, for sustainable and
environmentally sensitive development -- around the world.
The United States is strongly committed to the I.P.C.C.
process of international cooperation on global climate change.
We consider it vital, that the community of nations be drawn
together -- in an orderly, disciplined, rational way -- to review
the history of our global environment, to assess the potential
for future climate change, and to develop effective programs.
The state of the science; the social and economic impacts;
and the appropriate strategies -- all are crucial components to a
global resolution. The stakes here are very high; the
consequences, very significant.
The United States remains committed to aggressive and
thoughtful action on environmental issues. Last week, in my
State of the Union address, I spoke of stewardship: because
I
believe it's something we owe ourselves, our children and their
3
children.
So we are renewing the ethic of stewardship in our
domestic programs. In our work to forge international
agreements. In our assistance to developing and East Bloc
nations. And here, by chairing the Response Strategies Working
Group.
I have just submitted a budget to our Congress for fiscal
1991. It includes over $2 billion in new spending to protect the
environment. And, underscoring our commitment to your efforts, I
am pleased to note that funding for the U.S. Global Change
Research Program will increase by nearly 60 percent, to over one
understand envirg
billion dollars.
brings our determination to impr. the science Fpredigtor modeling
monitoring
That commitment, by far the largest ever made by any nation,
all
reassessment
regular
will allow NASA, her sister agencies, and our international
#
of the sci.
partners to move forward with the "Mission to Planet Earth. That
program will initiate the U.S. Earth Observing System, in
global
inonitoring
cooperation with Europe and Japan, to advance the state of
knowledge about the planet we share.
work
partners
oRhere
Furthermore, even as we wait for the benefits of this
research, the United States has already taken many steps in our
country that bring both economic and environmental benefits.
Steps that make sense on their own merits in terms of
responsibility and efficiency, which help reduce emissions of
CFC's, carbon dioxide, and other pollutants now entering the
atmosphere. Let me outline them very briefly:
We are pursuing new technology development that will
4
increase the efficiency of our energy use, and thus reduce total
emissions.
We're crafting a revised Clean Air Act with incentives for
our private sector
industry to find creative, market-driven solutions to enhance air
quality.
We've launched a major reforestation initiative to plant a
billion trees a year on private land across America.
And we're working out a comprehensive review and revision of
our National Energy Strategy, with initiatives to increase energy
efficiency and the use of renewable sources. These initiatives, efforts,
di
already underway, are the heart of a $336 million Department of
Energy program, and are expected to produce energy savings
through the year 2000 of over $30 billion -- while achieving
significant pollution reduction. Quite a return on investment.
We're also working through diplomatic channels with our
colleagues in other countries, and through innovative measures
like debt-for-nature swaps, to do more than simply reduce global
deforestation. We hope to reverse it ---- not unilaterally, but by
working with our international neighbors.
The economics of our response strategies to climate change
are getting intensive study in America. We are developing real
data on the costs of various strategies, assessing new measures,
and encouraging other nations to follow suit. And we look
forward to sharing this knowledge and technical support with our
international colleagues.
As we work to create policy and agreements on action, we
5
want to encourage the most creative, effective approaches.
Wherever possible, we believe that market mechanisms should be
applied -- and that our policies must be consistent with economic
growth and free market principles in all countries. Our
development efforts and our dialogue can help us reach effective
and acceptable solutions.
Last December at Malta, in my meeting with President
Gorbachev, I proposed that the United States offer a venue for
the first negotiating session for a framework convention, once
this August.
the I.P.C.C. completes its work I reiterate that invitation
here, and look forward to your cooperation in that agenda.
We all know that human activities are changing the
atmosphere in unexpected and unprecedented ways. Much remains to
be done. Many questions remain to be answered. Together, we
have a responsibility to ourselves and the generations to come,
to fulfill our stewardship obligations. But that responsibility
demands that we do it right.
We acknowledge a broad spectrum of views on these issues,
but our respect for a diversity of perspective does not diminish
our recognition of our obligation -- or soften our will to
produce policies that work.
will
So the United States continues its efforts to improve our
Daccurate,modh
understanding of climate change to seek hard data and new ways
to improve the science, and determine how best to meet these
challenges. Where politics and opinion have outpaced the
science, we are accelerating our support of the technology to
As tempthy of it would be toexploit
Some way be peopled
Que resp. is to maintain X the sainl grat. cri of or the univitanted 10YY Consequences folenbally of serious Ssballow sclution)
bgit concrox fr pol.
As irresis belampti to vide ant of
are 6 the No coury together for
bridge that gap.
Antlassessmente intlassessmenti of whole we stand
Therefore, this spring, the United States will host a White
House conference on science and economic research on the
environment -- convening top officials from a representative
group of nations, to bring together the three essential
disciplines: science, economics, and ecology. They will share
their knowledge, assumptions, and state-of-the-art research
models, to outline our understanding and help focus our efforts.
I look forward to participating in this seminar, and to learning
from its deliberations.
Our goal continues to be matching policy commitments to
emerging scientific knowledge -- and a reconciling of
environmental protection to the continued benefits of economic
development. And as Secretary Baker observed a year ago,
whatever global solutions to climate change are considered, they
should be as specific and as cost-effective as they can possibly
be.
If we hope to promote environmental protection and economic
growth around the world, it will be important not to work in
conflict, but with our industrial sectors. That will mean moving
beyond the practice of command, control, and compliance --toward
a new kind of environmental cooperation -- and toward an emphasis
on pollution prevention, rather than mere mitigation and
litigation. Many of our industries, in fact, are already
providing crucial research and solutions.
One corporation, for example, started an in-house program
7
called Pollution Prevention Pays, that has saved the company well
over half a billion dollars since 1975 -- and prevented 112,000
tons of air pollutants, 15,000 tons of water pollutants, and
almost 400,000 tons of sludge and solid waste from being released
into the environment. They've done it by rewarding employees for
coming up with the ideas. And they have clearly demonstrated the
benefits of doing it right.
Where developing nations are concerned, some argue we'll
have to abandon the free-market principles of prosperous
economies. In fact, we think it's all the more crucial, in the
to produce comfreetensife solutions
developing countries, to harness incentives of the free
enterprise system, in the service of the environment. \\
I believe we should make use of what we know. We know that
mustrot
the future of the earth cannot be compromised. We bear a sacred
trust in our tenancy here -- and a covenant with those most
precious to us: our children, and theirs. We also know of the
efficiency of economic incentive -- and that free markets yield
the most creative solutions. We must now apply the wisdom of
that system, market, the power of those forces, in defense of the
environment we cherish.
Working together, with industral? good faith and earnest dialogue, I
believe we can reconcile economic vitality with environmental
protection. Let me commend you on your outstanding work -- and
wish you all deliberate speed in your efforts to address a very
difficult, but very important, human concern.
Thank you -- and God bless you.
see Our Charging Plant
(Lange/Cawley)
February 2, 1989
2:00 P.M.
[IPCC.DOC]
PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS: INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY
MONDAY, FEBRUARY 5, 1990
10:15 A.M.
Thank you, Dr. Bolin [Bo-leen]. Professor Obasi. Dr.
Tolba. Delegates of the World Meteorological Organization, and
the United Nations Environment Program. Let me commend all of
you, for coming together to examine an issue of such great
importance. The recommendations this distinguished organization
makes will are have a profound effect on the world's environmental
and economic policy.
By being here today, I hope to underscore concern -- my
country's, and my own -- about environmental stewardship; and to
reaffirm our commitment to finding responsible solutions. It is
both an honor and a pleasure to be the first American President
to speak to this organization, as its work takes shape.
difficult You are called upon to develop recommendations which strike
an international bargain: a convergence between global
A Bargain
environmental policy, and global economic policy where both
perspectives benefit -- and neither is compromised.
experts,
You understand that economic growth and environmental
integrity are not contradictory priorities. One reinforces and
complements the other. [Each, enables and empowers the other
#2 partner. Neithr sufficient
7
A sound environment is the basis for the continuity and
quality of human life and enterprise. And I strong economies allow
dirfact,
Clarly
2
nations to fulfill the obligations of environmental stewardship.
Where there is economic strength, such stewardship protection is possible.
stewardship
But where there is poverty, it all too often fails to coalesce
all these
the competition x resources gets foughr.
For that reason, I sincerely believe we must do everything
in our power to promote global cooperation; for environmental
protection and economic growth; For intelligent management of
BF
our natural resources and efficient use of our industrial
capacity. And above all, for sustainable and environmentally
sensitive development -- around the world.
The United States is strongly committed to the I.P.C.C.
process of international cooperation on global climate change.
We consider it vital, that the community of nations be drawn
disciplired,
review the Distory of omiglobl
together -- in an ordered rational way --- to assess the
environments
potential for Fature :limate change, and develop appropriate, valid, effective
to
to
reasoned responses.
program.
The state of the science; the social and economic impacts;
and the somprite right response strategies All are crucial components to
a global resolution. The stakes here are very high; the
consequences, very significant.
Last week, in my State of the Union address, I spoke of
stewardship: because I believe it's something we owe ourselves,
our children and their children.
Thus the United States remains committed to aggressive and
thoughtful action on environmental issues. In our domestic
programs. hour work to forge international agreements. cla Our
3
assistance to developing and East Bloc nations. And here, by
chairing the Response Strategies Working Group.
I have just submitted a budget to our Congress for fiscal
1991. It includes over $2 billion in new spending to protect the
to supporty our commities $
environment. And with direct application to the issues at hand
steady an Karwa Complementing
your
here, I am pleased to note that funding for the U.S. Global
effets
Change Research Program will increase by nearly 60 percent, to
over billion dollars.
ever mobby
That commitment by far the largest by any nation, ever will
and her agrees, and or int'l patient
allow NASA to move forward with its Mission to Planet Earth,"
together with our international the partners, and Intpropan will initiate the
U.S. Earth Observing System, in cooperation with Europe and
Japan, to advance the state of knowledge about the planet we
share.
is not waiting the results of this resarch
finer webase
The United States has already taken many steps in our
both enviro
before atty particular
country that bring ma jor benefits in their own right. Steps that
make sense on their own merits in terms of prudence and
efficiency, which help reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and
other gases Pollutants now building up in the atmosphere. Let me outline
Missions entering
them very briefly:
are pursuing
We want to increase the efficiency of our energy use, and
thus reduce total emissions. So we re pursuing new technology
development. that will
We're crafting a revised Clean Air Act with incentives for
industry to find creative, market-driven solutions to enhance air
quality.
able we awaits the beagsts of this ask the U,S. for abready
taken many steps
4
We've launched a major reforestation initiative to plant a
billion trees a year on private land across America.
And we're working out a comprehensive review and revision of
our National Energy Strategy, with initiatives to increase energy
efficiency and the use of renewable sources. These initiatives,
arethe Dontafa
already underway, will cost our Department of Energy $336 million
D.O.F. program, and
over the next six years, but are expected to produce energy
savings through the year 2000 of over billion -- while
achieving significant pollution reduction. Quite a return on
investment.
We're also working through diplomatic channels with our
colleagues in other countries, and through innovative measures
like debt-for-nature swaps, to do more than simply reduce global
deforestation. We hope to reverse it -- not unilaterally, but by
working with our international neighbors.
The economics of our response strategies to climate change
are getting intensive study in America. We are developing real
data on the costs of various response strategies, assessing new
measures, and encouraging other nations to follow suit. And we
look forward to sharing this knowledge and technical support with
our international colleagues.
and agreement on action,
As we work to create policy on CFC's, CO2 and other
emissions, we want to encourage the most innovative responses.
effective approachs.
Wherever possible, we believe that market mechanisms should be
applied -- and that our policy policies must be consistent with economic
growth and free market principles in all countries. Our
5
development efforts and our dialogue can help us reach effective
and acceptable solutions.
Last December at Malta, in my meeting with President
Gorbachev, I proposed that the United States offer a venue for
the first negotiating session for a framework convention, once
the I.P.C.C. completes its work. I reiterate that invitation
here and look forward to your cooperation in that agenda.
2
3
But much remains to be done. Many questions remain to be
Together
answered. We have a responsibility to ourselves and the
generations to come to do it right We all know that human
activities are changing the atmosphere in unexpected and
unprecedented ways. But we must develop solutions that can
fulfill our stewardship responsibilities obligations and maintain our
But that resp. inch. acount
capacity to extend a beneficial quality of life to those who have
not yet seen the benefits of their emerging economies.
J
We acknowledge a broad spectrum of views on these issues,
but our respect for a diversity of perspective does not diminish
our recognition of our obligation -- or soften our will to
produce policies that work.
its florts
So the United States continues to work to improve our
understanding of climate change -- to seek hard data and new ways
to improve the science, and determine how best to meet these
challenges. Where politics and opinion have moved outpaced faster than
the science, we are accelerating our support of the science
to
bridge that gap.
6
Therefore, this spring, the United States will host a White
House conference on science and economic research on the
environment -- convening top officials from a representative
group of nations, to bring together the three essential
disciplines: science, economics, and ecology. They will share
their knowledge, assumptions, and state-of-the-art research
models, to outline our understanding and help focus our efforts.
I look forward to participating in this seminar, and to learning
from its deliberations.
commentments
Our goal continues to be matching policy to emerging
scientific knowledge -- and a reconciling of environmental
protection to the continued benefits of economic development.
And as Secretary Baker observed a year ago, whatever global
solutions to climate change are considered, they should be as
specific and as cost-effective as they can possibly be.
If we hope to promote environmental protection and economi
not
growth around the world, it will be important to work with
not
will
against our industrial sector
That
means
moving
beyond
the
streits
a
tradition of command, control, and compliance -- toward a new
practice
kind of environmental cooperation -- and toward an emphasis on
pollution prevention, rather than mere mitigation and litigation.
Many of our industries, in fact, are already providing
crucial research and solutions. And a few are already ahead of
us.
One corporation, for example, started an in-house program
called Pollution Prevention Pays, that has saved the company well
7
over half a billion dollars since 1975 -- and prevented 112,000
tons of air pollutants, 15,000 tons of water pollutants, and
almost 400,000 tons of sludge and solid waste from being released
into the environment. And they've done it by rewarding employees
for coming up with the ideas. They clearly bave profer from doing Genefits it right.
Where developing nations are concerned, some argue suggest we'll
the
decome
have to abandon free-market principles that allowed the
of prosperous economics.
industrial world to prosper In fact, we think it's all the more
incentives of the
crucial, in the developing countries, to harness the free
enterprise system 0 in the service of the environment.
I believe we should make use of what we know. We know that
the future of the earth cannot be compromised. We bear a sacred
trust in our tenancy here -- and a covenant with those most
precious to us: our children, and theirs. We also know of the
efficiency of economic incentive -- and that free markets yield
the most creative solutions. We must now apply the wisdom of that
market, the in pownot defense of here the forces environment we share. chrish.
Working together, with good faith and earnest dialogue, I
believe we can reconcile economic growth with environmental
protection. Let me commend you on your outstanding work -- and
wish you all deliberate speed in your efforts to address a very
difficult, but very important, human concern.
Thank you -- and God bless you.
###
4.
East
(Lange/Cawley)
February 4, 1989
11:15 A.M.
[IPCC.DOC]
PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS:
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY
MONDAY, FEBRUARY 5, 1990
10:15 A.M.
Thank you, Dr. Bolin [Bo-leen]. Professor Obasi. Dr.
Tolba. Delegates of the World Meteorological Organization, and
the United Nations Environment Program. Let me commend all of
you, for coming together to examine an issue of such great
importance. The recommendations this distinguished organization
can
makes will have a profound effect on the world's environmental
and economic policy.
By being here today, I hope to underscore concern -- my
country's, and my own -- about environmental stewardship; and to
reaffirm our commitment to finding responsible solutions. It is
both an honor and a pleasure to be the first American President
to speak to this organization, as its work takes shape.
are called upon to develop recommendations which strike
critical
an international bargain: a convergence between global
A bargain
environmental policy, and global economic policy, where both
perspectives benefit -- and neither is compromised.
as experts,
You understand that economic growth and environmental
integrity are not contradictory priorities. One reinforces and
a partnerd for a betterworld
complements the other. Each enables and empowers the other
A sound environment is the basis for the continuity and
Clearly,
quality of human life and enterprise.
And
strong economies allow
2
nations to fulfill the obligations of environmental stewardship.
protection
Where there is economic strength, such stewardship is possible.
the competition for resources consensus us,
But where there is poverty, it all too often fails to coalesce, tougher
all these
For that réason, I sincerely believe we must do everything
in our power to promote global cooperation: for environmental
protection and economic growth For intelligent management of
our natural resources and efficient use of our industrial
capacity. And above all, for sustainable and environmentally
sensitive development -- around the world.
The United States is strongly committed to the I.P.C.C.
process of international cooperation on global climate change.
We consider it vital, that the community of nations be drawn
discuplined
to review the history
of
end all Gonnerit global
together -- in an ordered, 14 rational way to assess the
potential for future climate change, and develop appropriate, valid,
to
effective programs.
reasoned responses.
The state of the science; the social and economic impacts;
appropriate
and the right response strategies All are crucial components to
a global resolution. The stakes here are very high; the
consequences, very significant.
Last week, in my State of the Union address, I spoke of
stewardship because I believe it's something we owe ourselves,
our children and their children.
Thus the United States remains committed to aggressive and
thoughtful action on environmental issues. In our domestic
programs. Our work to forge international agreements. Our
3
assistance to developing and East Bloc nations. And here, by
chairing the Response Strategies Working Group.
I have just submitted a budget to our Congress for fiscal
1991. It includes over $2 billion in new spending to protect the
environment.
[And with direct application to the issues at hand
undersing ourcommeting your expents here,
here I am pleased to note that funding for the U.S. Global
Change Research Program will increase by nearly 60 percent, to
over $1 billiong dollars.
That commitment, by far the largest by any nation ever, will
her sister agenties and am infarnationent portners
allow NASA to move forward with its the "Mission to Planet Earth,"
That pr organ
together with our international partners, and will initiate the
U.S. Earth Observing System, in cooperation with Europe and
Japan, to advance the state of knowledge about the planet we
share.
not writing to, the would of this research before actiony
The United States, has already taken many steps in our
Dath inveronmental and a
country that bring major benefits in their own right. Steps that
make sense on their own merits in terms of prudence responsibility and
CFC's
efficiency, which help reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and
other gases now building up in the atmosphere. Let me outline
pollutents endoing
them very briefly: new tech
we are passage energy devolpment that weld
We want to increase the efficiency of our energy use, and
thus reduce total emissions. So we're pursuing new technology
development.
We're crafting a revised Clean Air Act with incentives for
industry to find creative, market-driven solutions to enhance air
quality.
Which we await the venife to of this research
4
We've launched a major reforestation initiative to plant a
billion trees a year on private land across America.
And we're working out a comprehensive review and revision of
our National Energy Strategy, with initiatives to increase energy
the heart 5 a
efficiency and the use of renewable sources. These initiatives,
MR a
lready underway, will cost our Department of Energy $336 million
and
pr
of
over the next six years, but are expected to produce energy
0
savings through the year 2000 of over $32 billion -- while
achieving significant pollution reduction. Quite a return on
investment.
We're also working through diplomatic channels with our
colleagues in other countries, and through innovative measures
like debt-for-nature swaps, to do more than simply reduce global
deforestation. We hope to reverse it -- not unilaterally, but by
working with our international neighbors.
The economics of our response strategies to climate change
are getting intensive study in America. We are developing real
data on the costs of various response strategies, assessing new
measures, and encouraging other nations to follow suit. And we
look forward to sharing this knowledge and technical support with
our international colleagues.
and agreements on action,
As we work to create policy on CFC's, C02 and other
effective approaches.
-emissions 2 we want to encourage the most innovative 1 responses.
Wherever possible, we believe that market mechanisms should be
applied -- and that our policy is must be consistent with economic
growth and free market principles in all countries. Our
5
development efforts and our dialogue can help us reach effective
and acceptable solutions.
Last December at Malta, in my meeting with President
Gorbachev, I proposed that the United States offer a venue for
the first negotiating session for a framework convention, once
the I.P.C.C. completes its work. I reiterate that invitation
here and look forward to your cooperation in that agenda.
2
3
But much remains to be done. Many questions remain to be
2
toguther
answered. We have a responsibility to ourselves and the
/
generations to come to do it right. We all know that human
activities are changing the atmosphere in unexpected and
unprécedented ways.
But
we must develop solutions that can
obligations do right.
fulfill our stewardship responsibilities and maintain our
capacity to extend a beneficial quality of life to those who have
not yet seen the benefits of their emerging economies
We acknowledge a broad spectrum of views on these issues,
but our respect for a diversity of perspective does not diminish
our recognition of our obligation -- or soften our will to
produce policies that work.
its efforts
So the United States continues to work to improve our
understanding of climate change -- to seek hard data and new ways
to improve the science, and determine how best to meet these
outpaced
challenges. Where politics and opinion have moved faster than-
the science, we are accelerating our support of the science Technology to
bridge that gap.
6
Therefore, this spring, the United States will host a White
House conference on science and economic research on the
environment -- convening top officials from a representative
group of nations, to bring together the three essential
disciplines: science, economics, and ecology. They will share
their knowledge, assumptions, and state-of-the-art research
models, to outline our understanding and help focus our efforts.
I look forward to participating in this seminar, and to learning
from its deliberations.
Our goal continues to be matching policy to emerging
scientific knowledge -- and a reconciling of environmental
protection to the continued benefits of economic development.
And as Secretary Baker observed a year ago, whatever global
solutions to climate change are considered, they should be as
specific and as cost-effective as they can possibly be.
If we hope to promote environmental protection and economic
hat
conflict
unit
growth around the world, it will be important to work with not-
against our industrial sector. That means moving beyond the
pnactice
tradition of command, control, and compliance -- toward a new
kind of environmental cooperation -- and toward an emphasis on
pollution prevention, rather than mere mitigation and litigation.
Many of our industries, in fact, are already providing
crucial research and solutions. And a few are already ahead of
us
One corporation, for example, started an in-house program
called Pollution Prevention Pays, that has saved the company well
7
over half a billion dollars since 1975 -- and prevented 112,000
tons of air pollutants, 15,000 tons of water pollutants, and
almost 400,000 tons of sludge and solid waste from being released
into the environment. And they've done it by rewarding employees
for coming up with the ideas. They clearly have demonstrated by doing
it right.
Where developing nations are concerned, some suggest argue we'll
the
if prosperous Economics
have to abandon free-market principles, that allowed the
industrial world to prosper. In fact, we think it's all the more
the free morket meantives of
crucial, in the developing countries, to harness the free
enterprise system in the service of the environment.
111
I believe we should make use of what we know. We know that
the future of the earth cannot be compromised. We bear a sacred
trust in our tenancy here -- and a covenant with those most
precious to us: our children, and theirs. We also know of the
efficiency of economic incentive -- and that free markets yield
the most creative solutions. We must now apply the wisdom of the
the powers of the environment
cherish
market, 1 in defense of the environment we share.
Working together, with good faith and earnest dialogue, I
believe we can reconcile, economic growth vitality with environmental
protection. Let me commend you on your outstanding work -- and
wish you all deliberate speed in your efforts to address a very
difficult, but very important, human concern.
Thank you -- and God bless you.
###
(Lange/Cawley)
February 4, 1989
11:15 A.M.
[IPCC.DOC]
PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS: INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY
MONDAY, FEBRUARY 5, 1990
10:15 A.M.
Thank you, Dr. Bolin [Bo-leen]. Professor Obasi. Dr.
Tolba. Delegates of the World Meteorological Organization, and
the United Nations Environment Program. Let me commend all of
you, for coming together to examine an issue of such great
importance. The recommendations this distinguished organization
makes will have a profound effect on the world's environmental
and economic policy.
By being here today, I hope to underscore concern -- my
country's, and my own -- about environmental stewardship; and to
reaffirm our commitment to finding responsible solutions. It is
both an honor and a pleasure to be the first American President
to speak to this organization, as its work takes shape.
You are called upon to develop recommendations which strike
an international bargain: a convergence between global
environmental policy, and global economic policy, where both
perspectives benefit -- and neither is compromised.
You understand that economic growth and environmental
integrity are not contradictory priorities. One reinforces and
complements the other. Each enables and empowers the other.
A sound environment is the basis for the continuity and
quality of human life and enterprise. And strong economies allow
2
nations to fulfill the obligations of environmental stewardship.
Where there is economic strength, such stewardship is possible.
But where there is poverty, it all too often fails to coalesce
consensus.
For that reason, I sincerely believe we must do everything
in our power to promote global cooperation: for environmental
protection and economic growth. For intelligent management of
our natural resources and efficient use of our industrial
capacity. And above all, for sustainable and environmentally
sensitive development -- around the world.
The United States is strongly committed to the I.P.C.C.
process of international cooperation on global climate change.
We consider it vital, that the community of nations be drawn
together -- in an ordered, rational way -- to assess the
potential for climate change, and develop appropriate, valid,
reasoned responses.
The state of the science; the social and economic impacts;
and the right response strategies. All are crucial components to
a global resolution. The stakes here are very high; the
consequences, very significant.
Last week, in my State of the Union address, I spoke of
stewardship: because I believe it's something we owe ourselves,
our children and their children.
Thus the United States remains committed to aggressive and
thoughtful action on environmental issues. In our domestic
programs. Our work to forge international agreements. Our
3
assistance to developing and East Bloc nations. And here, by
chairing the Response Strategies Working Group.
I have just submitted a budget to our Congress for fiscal
1991. It includes over $2 billion in new spending to protect the
environment. And with direct application to the issues at hand
here, I am pleased to note that funding for the U.S. Global
Change Research Program will increase by nearly 60 percent, to
over $1 billion.
That commitment, by far the largest by any nation ever, will
allow NASA to move forward with its "Mission to Planet Earth,"
together with our international partners, and will initiate the
U.S. Earth Observing System, in cooperation with Europe and
Japan, to advance the state of knowledge about the planet we
share.
The United States has already taken many steps in our
country that bring major benefits in their own right. Steps that
make sense on their own merits in terms of prudence and
efficiency, which help reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and
other gases now building up in the atmosphere. Let me outline
them very briefly:
We want to increase the efficiency of our energy use, and
thus reduce total emissions. So we're pursuing new technology
development.
We're crafting a revised Clean Air Act with incentives for
industry to find creative, market-driven solutions to enhance air
quality.
4
We've launched a major reforestation initiative to plant a
billion trees a year on private land across America.
And we're working out a comprehensive review and revision of
our National Energy Strategy, with initiatives to increase energy
efficiency and the use of renewable sources. These initiatives,
already underway, will cost our Department of Energy $336 million
over the next six years, but are expected to produce energy
savings through the year 2000 of over $32 billion -- while
achieving significant pollution reduction. Quite a return on
investment.
We're also working through diplomatic channels with our
colleagues in other countries, and through innovative measures
like debt-for-nature swaps, to do more than simply reduce global
deforestation. We hope to reverse it -- not unilaterally, but by
working with our international neighbors.
The economics of our response strategies to climate change
are getting intensive study in America. We are developing real
data on the costs of various response strategies, assessing new
measures, and encouraging other nations to follow suit. And we
look forward to sharing this knowledge and technical support with
our international colleagues.
As we work to create policy on CFC's, CO2 and other
emissions, we want to encourage the most innovative responses.
Wherever possible, we believe that market mechanisms should be
applied -- and that policy must be consistent with economic
growth and free market principles in all countries. Our
5
development efforts and our dialogue can help us reach effective
and acceptable solutions.
Last December at Malta, in my meeting with President
Gorbachev, I proposed that the United States offer a venue for
the first negotiating session for a framework convention, once
the I.P.C.C. completes its work. I reiterate that invitation
here and look forward to your cooperation in that agenda.
But much remains to be done. Many questions remain to be
answered. We have a responsibility to ourselves and the
generations to come to do it right. We all know that human
activities are changing the atmosphere in unexpected and
unprecedented ways. But we must develop solutions that can
fulfill our stewardship responsibilities and maintain our
capacity to extend a beneficial quality of life to those who have
not yet seen the benefits of their emerging economies.
We acknowledge a broad spectrum of views on these issues,
but our respect for a diversity of perspective does not diminish
our recognition of our obligation -- or soften our will to
produce policies that work.
So the United States continues to work to improve our
understanding of climate change -- to seek hard data and new ways
to improve the science, and determine how best to meet these
challenges. Where politics and opinion have moved faster than
the science, we are accelerating our support of the science to
bridge that gap.
6
Therefore, this spring, the United States will host a White
House conference on science and economic research on the
environment -- convening top officials from a representative
group of nations, to bring together the three essential
disciplines: science, economics, and ecology. They will share
their knowledge, assumptions, and state-of-the-art research
models, to outline our understanding and help focus our efforts.
I look forward to participating in this seminar, and to learning
from its deliberations.
Our goal continues to be matching policy to emerging
scientific knowledge -- and a reconciling of environmental
protection to the continued benefits of economic development.
And as Secretary Baker observed a year ago, whatever global
solutions to climate change are considered, they should be as
specific and as cost-effective as they can possibly be.
If we hope to promote environmental protection and economic
growth around the world, it will be important to work with, not
against our industrial sector. That means moving beyond the
tradition of command, control, and compliance -- toward a new
kind of environmental cooperation -- and toward an emphasis on
pollution prevention, rather than mere mitigation and litigation.
Many of our industries, in fact, are already providing
crucial research and solutions. And a few are already ahead of
us.
One corporation, for example, started an in-house program
called Pollution Prevention Pays, that has saved the company well
7
over half a billion dollars since 1975 -- and prevented 112,000
tons of air pollutants, 15,000 tons of water pollutants, and
almost 400,000 tons of sludge and solid waste from being released
into the environment. And they've done it by rewarding employees
for coming up with the ideas.
Where developing nations are concerned, some suggest we'll
have to abandon free-market principles that allowed the
industrial world to prosper. In fact, we think it's all the more
crucial, in the developing countries, to harness the free
enterprise system in the service of the environment.
I believe we should make use of what we know. We know that
the future of the earth cannot be compromised. We bear a sacred
trust in our tenancy here -- and a covenant with those most
precious to us: our children, and theirs. We also know of the
efficiency of economic incentive -- and that free markets yield
the most creative solutions. We must now apply the wisdom of the
market, in defense of the environment we share.
Working together, with good faith and earnest dialogue, I
believe we can reconcile economic growth with environmental
protection. Let me commend you on your outstanding work -- and
wish you all deliberate speed in your efforts to address a very
difficult, but very important, human concern.
Thank you -- and God bless you.
###
(Lange/Cawley)
February 2, 1989
2:00 P.M.
[IPCC.DOC]
PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS: INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY
MONDAY, FEBRUARY 5, 1990
10:15 A.M.
Thank you, Dr. Bolin [Bo-leen]. Professor Obasi. Dr.
Tolba. Delegates of the World Meteorological Organization, and
the United Nations Environment Program. Let me commend all of
you, for taking on an issue of such great importance. The
recommendations this distinguished organization makes will have a
profound effect on the world's environmental and economic policy.
By being here today, I hope to underscore concern -- my
country's, and my own -- about environmental stewardship; and to
reaffirm our commitment to finding solutions. It is both an
honor and a pleasure to be the first American President to speak
to this organization, as its work takes shape.
You are called upon to strike an unprecedented international
bargain: a convergence between global environmental policy, and
global economic policy, where both sides benefit -- and neither
is compromised.
You understand that economic growth and environmental
integrity are not contradictory priorities. One reinforces and
complements the other.
A sound environment is the basis for the continuity and
quality of human life and enterprise. And strong economies allow
nations to fulfill the obligations of environmental stewardship.
2
Where there is economic strength, such stewardship is considered
a necessity. But where there is poverty, it is too often a
luxury.
For that reason, I believe we must do everything in our
power to promote global cooperation: for environmental
protection and economic growth. For intelligent management of
industrial and natural resources. Above all, for sustainable
development -- around the world.
The United States is strongly committed to the I.P.C.C.
process of international cooperation on global climate change.
We consider it vital, that the community of nations be drawn
together -- in an ordered, rational way -- to assess the
potential for climate change, and develop appropriate, reasoned
responses.
The state of the science; the social and economic impacts;
and the right response strategies: all are crucial components to
a global resolution. The stakes here are very high.
With every word, with every decision made, we're also making
a commitment that is profoundly personal. I think all of us
understand, deep inside, how the actions we take now speak to the
future.
Last week, in my State of the Union address, I talked of
stewardship: because I believe it's something we owe our
children and grandchildren. Because the earth we stand upon is
only borrowed, never owned.
3
So the United States remains committed to aggressive and
thoughtful action on environmental issues. In our domestic
programs. Our work to forge international agreements. Our
assistance to developing and East Bloc nations. And here, by
leading the Response Strategies Working Group.
I just proposed a budget to our Congress for fiscal 1991,
with $2 billion in new spending to protect the environment.
Funding for the U.S. Global Change Research Program will increase
by nearly 60 percent, to over $1 billion.
That will allow NASA to move forward with its "Mission to
Planet Earth," together with out international partners. And we
will initiate the U.S. Earth Observing System, in cooperation
with Europe and Japan, to advance the state of knowledge about
the planet we share.
We've already taken many steps in our country that bring
major benefits in their own right. Steps that make sense on
their own merits, and that will also help reduce emissions of
carbon dioxide and other gases now building up in the atmosphere.
Let me outline them very briefly:
We want to increase the efficiency of our energy use, and
thus reduce total emissions. So we're pursuing new technology
development. We're creating a revised Clean Air Act with
incentives for industry to find creative, market-driven
solutions. We've launched a major reforestation initiative to
plant a billion trees a year on private land across America. And
we're working out a comprehensive review and revision of our
4
National Energy Strategy, with initiatives to increase energy
efficiency and the use of renewable sources.
These initiatives, by the way, will cost our Department of
Energy $336 million over the next six years, but will produce
energy savings through the year 2000 of over $32 billion -- while
achieving significant pollution reduction. Quite a return on
investment.
We're also working through diplomatic channels with our
colleagues in other countries, and through innovative measures
like debt-for-nature swaps, to do more than simply reduce global
deforestation. We hope to reverse it -- not unilaterally, but by
working with our international neighbors.
The economics of our response strategies to climate change
are getting intensive study in America. We are developing real
data on the costs of various response strategies, assessing new
measures, and encouraging other nations to follow suit. And we
look forward to sharing technical support with our international
colleagues.
As we work to create policy on CFC's, CO2 and other
emissions, we want to encourage the most innovative responses.
Wherever possible, we believe that market mechanisms should be
applied -- and that policy must be consistent with economic
growth and free market principles in all countries. Dialogue can
help us reach effective and acceptable solutions.
That is why, in my meeting with President Gorbachev, I
proposed that the United States offer a venue for the first
5
negotiating session for a framework convention, once the I.P.C.C.
completes its work.
Much remains to be done. Many questions remain to be
answered. We all know that human activities are changing the
atmosphere in unexpected and unprecedented ways. But we are not
yet prepared -- academically, or otherwise -- to draw
conclusions.
Those who question the likelihood of climate change if the
world continues on its current path represent one distinct
minority. Those who see it as an imminent and irreversible
threat to mankind represent another. And many scientists are
uncomfortable claiming with absolute certainty that global
climate change can now be detected -- or predicted. In some
quarters, politics or emotion may be outstripping science.
So the United States continues to work to improve our
understanding of climate change -- to seek hard data and new ways
to improve the science. Because what science now knows with
confidence, policy-makers can't use. And what policy-makers need
to make decisions, science doesn't yet conclusively know.
We feel it is crucial to bridge that gap. So this spring,
the United States will host a White House Seminar on Science and
Economic Research on the Environment -- convening top officials
from a representative group of nations, to bring together the
three essential disciplines: science, economics, and ecology.
They will share their knowledge, assumptions, and state-of-the-
art research models, to outline the gaps in our understanding and
6
chart a course toward a common understanding. I look forward to
participating in this seminar, and to learning from its
deliberations.
While some suggest we should make significant policy now, on
the chance that real climate change becomes certain, others point
to the opposite edge of that sword: that any meaningful
preemptive policies would bring only the certainty of prohibitive
expense; conflict with Third World development; and declining
standards of living, worldwide.
I believe we can do better. We must seek a reasoned middle
ground, that matches policy to emerging scientific knowledge --
and reconciles environmental protection to economic development.
And as Secretary Baker observed a year ago, whatever global
solutions to climate change are considered, they should be as
specific and as cost-effective as they can possibly be.
If we hope to promote environmental protection and economic
growth around the world, it will be important to work with, not
against industry. That will mean moving beyond the tradition of
command, control, and compliance -- toward a new kind of
environmental cooperation -- and toward an emphasis on pollution
prevention, rather than mere mitigation and litigation.
Many industries, in fact, are already providing crucial
research and solutions. And a few are already ahead of us.
The 3M Corporation, for example, started an in-house program
called Pollution Prevention Pays, that has saved the company well
over half a billion dollars since 1975 -- and prevented 112,000
7
tons of air pollutants, 15,000 tons of water pollutants, and
almost 400,000 tons of sludge and solid waste from being released
into the environment. And they've done it by rewarding employees
for coming up with the ideas.
Where developing nations are concerned, some suggest we'll
have to abandon the laissez-faire, free-market principles that
allowed the industrial world to prosper. In fact, we think it's
all the more crucial, in the developing countries, to harness the
free enterprise system in the service of the environment.
To the extent we can accelerate the advancement of these
nations, it will take less energy for them to produce wealth: in
modern industrial countries, energy use per unit of G.N.P. has
declined over time -- steadily, and dramatically.
So we look forward to working with the developing nations:
Applying the power of the marketplace, considering technology
transfer, and encouraging industry to work with them. That will
allow developing nations to grow more quickly and easily -- and
may help them avoid making the environmental mistakes we older
nations have made.
I believe we should make use of what we know. We know that
the future of the earth cannot be compromised. We bear a sacred
trust in our tenancy here -- and a covenant with those most
precious to us: our children, and theirs. We also know of the
efficiency of economic incentive -- and that free markets yield
the most creative solutions. We must now apply the wisdom of the
market, in defense of the environment we share.
8
[
You know, I recently heard from a national champion bass
fisherman in America, that just downstream on the Potomac river
here in Washington -- right across from Mount Vernon -- the bass
fishing is as good as it is anywhere in the country. I take that
as reason for optimism. Not too long ago, that river was
considered a serious environmental problem. Now the story it
tells, is that we are capable, not merely of halting damage done,
but reversing it. ]
Working together, with good faith and earnest dialogue, I
believe we can reconcile economic growth with environmental
protection. Let me commend you on your outstanding work -- and
wish you all deliberate speed in your efforts to address a very
difficult, but very important, human concern.
Thank you -- and God bless you.
# # #
Mc Nally KANSAS ciry (law enforcement)
Actionty An Spec -jokes good
Acland has 3M-bibe stuff
Amport, Shell,
(Lange/Cawley)
January 31, 1989
2:45 P.M.
[IPCC.DOC]
PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS:
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY
MONDAY, FEBRUARY 5, 1990
10:15 A.M.
Thank you, Dr. Bolin. Professor Obasi. Dr. Tolba.
Delegates of the World Meteorological Congress, and the United
Nations Environment Program. Let me thank and congratulate all
of you, for taking on an issue of such great importance.
Over the past century we've produced the most
technologically advanced creations of man. We've also gained new
understanding -- though still incomplete -- of the most
ecologically fragile creations of nature.
But unfortunately, somewhere along the way, we picked up a
bias, that has harmed both man and nature: a mistaken belief
that there is a divergence of interests -- a logical division --
between the natural world and we who inhabit it.
Nothing could be further from the truth -- or more central
to the work of this Panel. For you are called upon to strike an
unprecedented international bargain: a convergence between
global environmental policy, and global economic policy, where
both sides benefit -- and neither is compromised.
You are called upon to end to the environmental cold war.
This will be possible only if we understand that economic
growth and environmental integrity are not contradictory
priorities. One reinforces and complements the other.
2
A sound environment is the basis for the continuity and
quality of human life and enterprise. And strong economies allow
nations to fulfill the obligations of environmental stewardship.
Where there is economic strength, such stewardship is considered
a necessity. But where there is poverty, it is too often a
luxury.
For that reason, I believe that within this decade we must
usher in a new era of global cooperation: for environmental
protection and economic growth. For intelligent management of
industrial and natural resources. Above all, for sustainable
development -- around the world.
The United States believes the I.P.C.C. is the best forum to
develop policy on global climate change. We're committed to
international cooperation on this issue. And we consider it
vital that the community of nations is drawn together -- in an
ordered, rational way -- to assess the potential for climate
change.
The state of the science; the social and economic impacts;
and the right response strategies: all are crucial components to
a global resolution. But in this, we must attend to what we
2
know. And what we do, must be done responsibly and well
The stakes here are very high.
B.F.
There is no question that human activities are changing the
atmosphere in unexpected and unprecedented ways. Over the past
three centuries, the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
has gone up by 25 percent. Atmospheric methane has doubled.
3
What we don't yet understand are the extent and consequences
of the alterations we've brought about -- and how they're linked
to a significant, imminent climate change.
Last fall, many clear thinkers --- among them, world leaders
-- were citing a significant thinning of sea ice at the poles as
evidence that global warming had arrived. Recent observations
show that the polar ice sheets are not melting, they're growing
in size.
I'm not prepared -- academically, or otherwise -- to draw
conclusions. But I have noticed something about the scientists
drawing the conclusions.
Those who see climate change as a clear and present danger
represent one distinct minority. Those who discount it
completely, represent another minority. But many scientists --
if not most -- are not ready to claim that the extent of global
climate change can now be reliably detected -- or predicted.
That may be to their credit.
Observing the fervor of the French Revolution, the English
poet William Blake wrote, "The best lack all conviction, while
the worst are filled with passionate intensity." Here, too, we
are called upon for action based on observation -- not media-
driven emotion, or the politics of apocalypse.
Cata Information
What science now knows with confidence, policy-makers can't
needs
use. And what policy-makers are interested in, science doesn't
yet know.
4
Questions remain -- over the reflective effects of cloud
cover, the cooling effects and CO2 absorption of oceans, and
other sinks and feedback mechanisms we don't yet understand.
Those questions, among others, suggest that we should attend to
what is known about climate change -- and work to know more.
Current computer models are marvels of mathematics. Still,
they cannot yet be said to represent reality -- and cannot be
expected to predict the future. Above all, responsible policy
cannot rest on the shifting sands of hypothesis and a chaos of
conjecture.
Despite
Given this level of uncertainty, some suggest we should act
now, on the chance that significant climate change becomes
certain. Others point to the opposite edge of that sword: any
meaningful, preemptive policies would bring only the certainty of
prohibitive expense; conflict with Third World development; and
declining standards of living, worldwide.
We're confident that the world will neither be caught
anticipate
surprised by a greenhouse effect it didn't expect, nor
impoverished in anticipation of a cataclysmic warming that
5
never arrived.
There is a middle way that must be sought -- a symmetry that
must be reached -- that reconciles policy to emerging scientific
knowledge, and environmental protection to economic development.
The United States remains committed to its leadership role
on environmental issues: in our domestic programs, in our work
to forge international agreements, in our assistance to
5
developing and East Bloc nations, and through our chairmanship of
the Response Strategies Working Group in the I.P.C.C.
Overall, we're already doing more than any other country --
tighter
in terms of financial and human resources, by more than a factor
mchiday
of ten -- to understand and address global warming, among other
major environmental concerns. Funds devoted to environment-
related research in our proposed 1991 budget now total over $70
-
billion. -
Funding for the U.S. Global Change Research Program will
increase by nearly 60 percent in fiscal 1991, to over $1 billion.
It allows NASA to proceed with its "Mission to Planet Earth" --
and funds the launch of the first U.S. Earth Observing System, to
advance the state of knowledge about the planet we share.
Along the way, we will seek the involvement of all nations,
no matter what their level of development or economic system, to
?
monitor and analyze climate change, and reassess the science. We
place the highest priority on better understanding the earth and
its interrelated systems -- and developing high-performance
computing systems up to the task.
We seek immediate action, and have already taken a number of
Steps
steps that bring major benefits in their own right that make
sense on their own merits; and that will also help reduce
emissions of carbon dioxide and other gases now building up in
the atmosphere, stimulating concern about potential climate
change
Let me outline them very briefly:
cut Spring
6
We called last year for a worldwide ban on chloro-
flourocarbon production, to the extent safe substitutes are
available.
We're working to stabilize, and reduce where
possible, both overall emissions and energy consumption.
We're
actively pursuing technology development to improve the
effectiveness of both supply- and demand-side technologies for
energy of all kinds.
We've introduced new Clean Air Act legislation --
emphasizing clean coal technology, conservation measures, the
trading of emissions permits, and other devices to encourage
industry to find creative, market-driven solutions.
We're in the middle of a comprehensive review and revision
of our National Energy Strategy, considering our future energy
needs in light of environmental, efficiency, and conservation
issues --and developing alternative energy sources, hydro,
solar, biomass, and geothermal designs
We're working through diplomatic channels, and through
innovative measures like debt-for-nature swaps, to do more than
simply reduce global deforestation. We hope to reverse it.
And here at home aware that new growth forests absorb
ignificantly more CO2 than old grove timber we've launched a
major reforestation initiative, to plant a billion trees a year
on private land across America.
The economics of our domestic strategies are now being
scrutinized in Congress. Rest assured, given our role in the
?
7
R.S.W.G., that the economics of international responses to
potential climate change will get equally intensive study.
We intend to develop real data on the costs of various
response strategies, assess new measures, and challenge other
nations to follow suit. We will also offer technical support to
those who need it.
In creating policy to manage CO2 and other emissions now
believed to be implicated in climate change, we want to encourage
truly innovative responses -- including the trading of emissions
permits if appropriate -- as well as a comprehensive approach
where all major emissions implicated in climate change are
included.
Wherever possible, we believe that market mechanisms should
be applied -- and that policy must be consistent with economic
growth and free market principles in all countries. This is
IS particularly
this
where ending the environmental cold war will be most crucialx
and
If we hope to promote environmental protection and economic
growth around the world, it will be important to work with, not
against industry. That will mean moving beyond the tradition of
command, control, and compliance -- toward a new kind of
environmental cooperation. Many industries, in fact, are already
providing crucial research and solutions. And a few are already
ahead of us.
One power-plant management firm, just across the river in
Virginia, donated $2 million in 1988 for tree planting in
Guatemala -- to compensate for a coal-fired plant it was building
8
in Connecticut. The company expects to couple tree-planting
programs with all seven new power plants now on its drawing
boards
Where developing nations are concerned, some suggest we'll
have to abandon the laissez-faire, free-market principles that
allowed the industrial world to prosper. Well, we don't see it
that way. We intend to apply the principles of the free market
in the service of the environment -- especially in the developing
nations. Sustainable economic development demands that we enlist
?
the desires of the developing world, rather than try to limit
them.
The share of total emissions contributed by developing
countries is expected to rise dramatically in the future. We
understand that China plans to double its use of coal by the end
of the century, and India's use may triple.
To the extent we can accelerate the advancement of these and
other developing nations, it will take less energy for them to
produce wealth: Because in modern industrial countries, energy
use per unit of Gross National Product has declined over time --
steadily, and dramatically.)
So we need to work with the developing nations: Applying
the power of the marketplace. Considering technology transfer
for conservation, clean coal and renewable technologies. And
encouraging industry to assist developing nations in making
quantum leaps in technologies. That will allow developing
nations to grow more quickly and easily -- and may help them
9
avoid making the environmental mistakes we older nations have
made.
As I said earlier, I believe we should make use of what we
that
know. We know of the power of free markets to find creative
solutions. To make resources and talent more rapidly available
We understand the efficiency of an economic incentive We should
apply it now, in defense of the environment we share.
Just as we rely on the corrective actionsof the biosphere, I
hope we will learn to rely on the corrective actions of free
markets -- to give incentives and integrity to our strategies for
climate change.
Let me wish the three working groups the very best of luck.
I'm confident that your work will be done carefully, and well --
and that the I.P.C.C. will continue in its vital role.
Thank you -- and God bless you.
# # #
(Lange/Cawley)
January 31, 1989
7:00 A.M.
[IPCC.DOC]
PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS: INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY
MONDAY, FEBRUARY 5, 1990
10:15 A.M.
Thank you, Dr. Bolin. Professor Obasi. Dr. Tolba.
Delegates of the World Meteorological Congress, and the United
Nations Environment Program. Let me congratulate all of you
[[ Brief reflection, post-war: even as prospect of world war
appears to diminish, importance of world stewardship grows. ]]
Over the last forty years, we've unleashed the most
albeit
technologically advanced creations of man. We've gained new, better, incomple still
understanding of the most ecologically fragile creations of
nature. But whether created by man or nature -- what is critical
to endurance, is balance.
Balance will certainly be crucial to the efforts of this
Panel. For you are called upon to strike an unprecedented
international bargain: a balance between global environmental
policy, and global economic policy, where both sides benefit --
and neither is compromised.
This will be possible only if we understand that economic
growth and environmental integrity are not contradictory
priorities. One reinforces and complements the other.
2
A sound environment is the basis for the continuity and
quality of human life and enterprise. And strong economies allow
nations to fulfill the obligations of environmental stewardship.
strength
Where there is wealth, environmental stewardship is considered a
necessity. But where there is poverty, it is too often a luxury.
For that reason, I believe that within this decade, we must
usher in a new era of global cooperation: for environmental
protection and economic growth. For intelligent management of
industrial and natural resources. Above all, for sustainable
development -- around the world.
The United States believes the I.P.C.C. is the best forum to
develop policy on global climate change. We're committed to
international cooperation on this issue. And we consider it
vital that the community of nations is drawn together -- in an
ordered, rational way -- to assess the potential for climate
change.
The state of the science; the social and economic impacts;
and the right response strategies: all are crucial components to
a global resolution. But in this, we must attend to what we
know. And what we do, must be done responsibly and well.
The stakes here are very high.
There is no question that human activities are changing the
atmosphere in unexpected and unprecedented ways. Over the past
three centuries, the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
has gone up by 25 percent. Atmospheric methane has doubled.
What we don't yet understand are the extent and consequences
3
of the alterations we've brought about -- and how they're linked
to a significant, imminent climate change. The state of our
thinking, like the state of nature, calls for balance.
Last fall, many -- among them, world leaders -- were citing
a significant thinning of sea ice at the poles, as evidence that
global warming had arrived. But recent observations show that
the polar ice sheets are not melting, they're growing in size.
I'm not prepared -- academically, or otherwise -- to draw
conclusions. But I have noticed something about the scientists
drawing the conclusions.
Those who see climate change as a clear and present danger
represent one distinct minority. Those who discount it
completely, represent another minority. But many scientists --
if not most -- are not ready to claim that the extent of global
climate change can now be reliably detected -- or predicted.
That may be to their credit.
Observing the fervor of the French Revolution, the English
poet William Blake wrote, "The best lack all conviction, while
the worst are filled with passionate intensity." Here, too, we
are called upon for action based on observation -- not media-
driven emotion, or the politics of apocalypse.
What science now knows with confidence, policy-makers can't
use. And what policy-makers are interested in, science doesn't
yet know.
4
The questions that remain -- over the reflective effects of
cloud cover, the cooling effects and CO2 absorption of oceans,
and other sinks and feedback mechanisms we don't yet understand
-- suggest that we should attend to what is known about climate
change -- and work to know more.
Current computer models are marvels of mathematics. Still,
they cannot yet be said to represent reality -- and cannot be
expected to predict the future. Above all, responsible policy
cannot rest on the shifting sands of hypothesis and a chaos of
conjecture.
Given this level of uncertainty, some suggest we should act
now, on the chance that significant climate change becomes
certain. Others point to the opposite edge of that sword: any
meaningful preemptive policies would bring only the certainty of
prohibitive expense; conflict with Third World development; and
declining standards of living, worldwide.
We're confident that the world will neither be caught
surprised by a greenhouse effect it didn't expect, nor
impoverished in anticipation of a cataclysmic warming that
never arrived.
must
There is a middle way that may be sought -- a balance that
must be struck -- that reconciles policy to emerging scientific
knowledge, and environmental protection to economic development.
The United States remains committed to its leadership role
on environmental issues: in our domestic programs, in our work
to forge international agreements, in our assistance to
5
developing and East Bloc nations, and through our chairmanship of
the Response Strategies Working Group in the I.P.C.C.
Overall, we're already doing more than any other country --
in terms of financial and human resources, by more than a factor
of ten -- to understand and address global warming, among other
major environmental concerns. Funds devoted to environment-
related research in our proposed 1991 budget now total over $70
billion.
Funding for the U.S. Global Change Research Program will
increase by nearly 60 percent in fiscal 1991, to over $1 billion.
It allows NASA to proceed with its "Mission to Planet Earth" --
and funds the launch of the first U.S. Earth Observing System, to
advance the state of knowledge about the planet we share.
Along the way, we will seek the involvement of all nations,
no matter what their level of development or economic system, to
monitor and analyze climate change, and reassess the science. We
place the highest priority on better understanding the earth and
its interrelated systems -- and developing high-performance
computing systems up to the task.
We seek immediate action, and have already taken a number of
steps, that bring major benefits in their own right; make sense
on their own merits; and will also help reduce emissions of
carbon dioxide and other gases now building up in the atmosphere,
stimulating concern about potential climate change.
Last year I announced our support for a worldwide ban on
cloroflourocarbon production, to the extent safe substitutes are
6
available. We recently placed a fee on CFC production that is
expected to reduce American CFC emissions even below the levels
of international protocols.
We have compelling reasons to stabilize -- and reduce where
possible -- both overall emissions and energy consumption.
Ultimately, but eventually, fossil fuel will be all too finite.
So we're actively pursuing technology development programs
to improve the effectiveness of both supply- and demand-side
technologies for energy of all kinds -- through more efficient
fuel generation technologies, renewable sources and end-use
efficiency, and enhanced nuclear generation safety. And we're
committed to regular assessments of the state of technology
development.
To achieve domestic reductions in airborne emissions, we've
introduced new Clean Air Act legislation -- emphasizing clean
coal technology, conservation measures, the trading of emissions
permits, and other devices to encourage industry to find
creative, market-driven solutions.
We're in the midst of a comprehensive review and revision of
our National Energy Strategy, to consider our future energy needs
in light of environmental, efficiency, and conservation issues --
and to develop alternative energy sources in hydro, solar,
biomass, and geothermal designs.
Forests, particularly in tropical regions, are being lost at
a rate of 40 million acres a year -- an area larger than East
Germany. The burning of this biomass and its after-effects
7
account for as much as a quarter of the carbon dioxide that human
beings are adding to the atmosphere. For that reason -- and for
the sake of the irreplaceable species being lost day by day -- we
are working through diplomatic channels, and through innovative
measures like debt-for-nature swaps, to do more than simply
reduce deforestation. We hope to reverse it.
Here at home -- aware that new growth forests absorb
significantly more CO2 than old grove timber -- we've launched a
major reforestation initiative, to plant a billion trees a year
on private land across America.
The economics of our domestic strategies are now being
scrutinized in Congress. Let me also assure you, given our role
in the R.S.W.G., that the economics of international responses to
potential climate change will get equally intensive study.
We intend to develop real data on the costs of various
response strategies, assess new measures, and challenge other
nations to follow suit. We will offer technical support to those
who need it.
In creating policy to manage CO2 and other emissions now
believed to be implicated in climate change, we want to encourage
truly innovative responses -- including the trading of emissions
permits if appropriate -- as well as a comprehensive approach
where all major emissions implicated in climate change are
included.
Wherever possible, we believe that market mechanisms should
be applied -- and that policy must be consistent with economic
8
growth and free market principles in all countries. This is
where the quest for balance will be most crucial.
It will be important to work with, not against, industry if
we hope to promote environmental protection and economic growth
around the world. That will mean moving beyond the tradition of
command, control, and compliance -- toward a new kind of
environmental cooperation. Many industries, in fact, are already
providing crucial research and solutions. And a few are already
ahead of us.
One power-plant management firm, just across the river in
Virginia, donated $2 million in 1988 for tree planting in
Guatemala -- to compensate for a coal-fired plant it was building
in Connecticut. The company expects to couple tree-planting
programs with all seven new power plants now on its drawing
boards.
Where the developing nations are concerned, some suggest
we'll have to abandon the laissez-faire, free-market principles
that allowed the industrial world to prosper. Well, we're headed
in the opposite direction. We intend to apply the principles of
the free market in the service of the environment -- especially
in the developing nations. Sustainable economic development
demands that we enlist the desires of the developing world,
rather than try to limit them.
To be effective, the I.P.C.C. must truly represent the
interests of the world community of nations. The share of total
emissions contributed by developing countries is expected to rise
9
dramatically in the future -- becoming more than 50 percent by
2025. We understand that China plans to double its use of coal
by the end of the century, and India plans a tripling.
But there may be good news here. To the extent we can
accelerate the advancement of these and other developing nations,
it will take less energy for them to produce wealth: In modern
industrial countries, energy use per unit of Gross National
Product has declined -- steadily, and dramatically.
So we need to work with the developing nations: Applying
the power of the marketplace. Allowing for the trading of
emissions permits where appropriate. Considering technology
transfer for clean coal and renewable technologies, conservation,
and end-use services. And encouraging industry to assist
developing nations in making quantum leaps in technologies.
Leaps that will allow LDC's to grow more quickly and easily --
and may help them avoid making the environmental mistakes we
older nations have made.
As I said earlier, I believe we should make use of what we
know. We know of the power of free markets to find creative
solutions. To make resources and talent more rapidly available.
We understand the efficiency of an economic incentive. We should
apply it now, in defense of the environment we share.
We rely on the greenhouse effect, as long as it remains in
balance. Without it, the surface of the earth would resemble
that of the moon.
10
So just as we rely on the corrective action of the
biosphere, we must learn to rely on the corrective actions of
free markets to give incentives and integrity to our climate
change strategies.
To keep this process moving, and advance the debate, we will
host an international environment meeting on April 18 and 19 here
in Washington. I look forward to first assessment report in
June, and IPCC reports in August, etc.
Wish the three working groups the best of luck. Confident
your work will be done carefully and well. Sure the I.P.C.C.
will continue to prosper under
, and benefit from Dr. Tolba's
leadership
###
PRPLARY 12, 1990
1.
FORT
111
RESEARCH
Fortune
THE
ENVIRONMENT
BUSINESS
JOINS
THE NEW
CRUSADE
Pacific Gas &
Electric's CEO
Richard Clarke
now works with
activists his
company
once fought.
NTERRUPTED FLIGHTS 1
their homes and the health of their chil-
dren. That means they are relentless. In
general, unlike the mainstream environ-
mental groups, they are not interested in
compromise or mediation." McDonald's
successfully confronted antipolystyrene
picketing at several of its Vermont stores
with an aggressive local educational cam-
paign. By the end, local activists were ask-
ing that the company convert its paper
cold-drink cups to plastic.
O
NE LESSON from the company's
experience: Don't ever assume
you've solved an environmental
problem. As knowledge evolves,
attitudes change, and so do solutions. Mc-
Donald's switched from paper to polysty-
rene packaging for Big Macs and other
sandwiches in 1976 largely because the pub-
lic was worried about cutting trees and the
energy that paper production consumed. As
recently as the early Seventies, CFCs, one of
today's leading environmental villains, were
believed to be a harmless and inert triumph
of modern chemistry.
You have to keep looking ahead-way
ahead. For gutsy environmental farsighted-
ness, few companies can top Applied En-
ergy Services. The private, Virginia-based
power-plant management firm donated $2
million in 1988 for tree planting in Guate-
mala to compensate for a coal-fired plant
it was building in Connecticut. The trees,
which of course consume carbon dioxide,
are intended to offset the plant's emissions
of the gas, which may lead to global warm-
ing. Says CEO Roger Sant: "We pride our-
selves on being part of the solution, not
part of the problem. We weren't trying to
do any more than salve our own guilt, I
guess." The company expects to couple
tree-planting programs with all seven new
plants on its drawing boards. Several large
outfits have contacted Sant to ask his help
in refining similar plans.
One recent weekday afternoon, three
men walked out of the Environmental De-
fense Fund's midtown Manhattan office
on their way to have lunch together. On
the left was EDF's senior economist. On
the right was an environmental expert in
Now Singapore Airlines' Megatop 7
the Soviet government. Between them was
a businessman, a trader in the nascent en-
than you ever imagined. Nonstop (
terprise of buying and selling pollution
Hong Kong and on to Singapore. Or
rights. Together that trio forms a picture
of how the new environmentalism is shap-
to Hong Kong and nonstop back to
ing up: global, more cooperative than con-
Rest assured, you'll still have ampl
frontational- and with business at the
center.
F
service even other airlines talk ab
Frederick M. Bernthal
Current
Policy
U.S. Climate Change Policy
No. 1216
United States Department of State
Bureau of Public Affairs
Washington, D.C.
Following is an address by Frederick M.
greenhouse gases. And if CFC phaseout
processes we are observing; and finally, to
Bernthal, Assistant Secretary of State for
and stratospheric ozone depletion raise dif-
develop an understanding of the potential
Oceans and International Environmental
ficult international issues of equity, eco-
environmental, social, and economic im-
and Scientific Affairs, at the National Press
nomic development, and technology trans-
pacts of the problem.
Club's Conference on Earth Observations
fer, CFCs will seem like child's play should
The American people, to say nothing of
and Global Change sponsored by the Na-
we find that world action becomes neces-
the developing world, will not forgive us if
tional Aeronautics and Space Administra-
sary to cope with global warming.
they are asked to make great sacrifices and
tion, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
we turn out to be wrong. They would be
Administration, and the Environmental Re-
search Institute of Michigan, Washington,
Maintaining Political Interests
much less likely to listen next time. And I
D.C. September 19, 1989.
in the Environment
have little doubt that, one way or another,
humankind is capable of concocting a quiet
It is never easy to maintain political interest
little planetary catastrophe.
"Environmental diplomacy" is now part of
in an issue that will span the careers-in-
So we are working to reach an interna-
the lexicon of international affairs. Indeed,
deed, the lifetimes-of everyone in this
tional consensus on the nature of climate
The Economist dubbed the recent Paris
room today. But the single political im-
change and potential response strategies
economic summit the first "green summit,"
perative for this issue is focus and continu-
for addressing such change. To that end,
and went on to say: "What defense has
ity-despite last summer's drought in the
the United States strongly supported the
been to the world's leaders for the past 40
Great Plains, despite the New York Times
establishment of the Intergovernmental
years, the environment will be for the next
telling us that the 100-year record shows
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), under
40: an intractable exercise in national self-
no evidence after all for warming in the
the auspices of the UN Environment Pro-
restraint, where gains depend less on what
United States, and even despite some
gram (UNEP) and the World Meteorologi-
individual countries do than on whether
future years of cooling that might cause
cal Organization (WMO). The IPCC now
many countries trust each other and will
the warmth of the 1980s to fade in our
serves as the primary international forum
work together."
memory.
for this issue.
At home, while it may have been for
Such issues place world leaders in the
The IPCC has established three work-
the wrong reason-the drought in our own
unenviable position of having to distin-
ing groups: one to review and assess the
Great Plains-global climate change last
guish problems that are serious-and this
science relevant to climate change, another
summer suddenly emerged in the United
one is-from those that are a crisis.
to assess the possible environmental and
States as the most important environ-
Making that distinction is never easy,
socioeconomic impacts of such change,
mental issue of the day.
and it is the more difficult when the prob-
and a third to identify potential response
Now as luck and nature would have it,
lems are profoundly scientific in character.
options. The United Kingdom chairs the
chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and halons,
In such circumstances, our first priority
science group; the U.S.S.R., the impacts
blamed for destroying the protective strato-
must be to determine, as clearly as we can,
group; and the United States, the response
spheric ozone layer, are also powerful
what we know and what we don't know; to
strategies working group.
increase our understanding of the natural
This three-track approach is designed
All of these considerations will form
on fossil fuels. Permanent solutions that
to ensure that policy recommendations re-
the basis for the IPCC's interim report on
permit continued world economic growth
flect our best current knowledge of the sci-
global climate change in the fall of 1990.
would require energy technologies which
ence and likely impacts of climate change.
President Bush has said that he expects
minimize greenhouse gas emissions-a
these efforts will lead to formal negotia-
permanent shift in the mix of energy
Role of the Response
tions on a framework convention on cli-
sources. For if global warming is inher-
Strategies Working Group
mate, to set forth the broad principles that
ently an international problem, it is also in-
should guide world cooperation and atten-
herently an energy problem.
The working group, which I chair, is con-
tion in the decades ahead. The Group of
We are told that China plans to double
sidering both short and long-term policy
Seven leaders supported this position at
its use of coal by the year 2000, and India
options for addressing climate change.
the recent Paris economic summit.
plans a tripling. If that happens, coal use in
Four topical subgroups have been formed:
just those two countries will exceed that of
energy and industry, agriculture and for-
all the OECD countries combined. So
estry, coastal zone management, and re-
Key Points on Global Warming
while today greenhouse gases are primar-
source use and management. The first two
Secretary of State James Baker, in his first
ily the product of the industrialized nations,
subgroups will consider strategies for limit-
statement in an international forum last
if current trends continue, by the middle of
ing the rate of climate change; the second
February, made four key points on the
the next century half of the problem will
two for adapting to climate change.
climate change issue.
reside in the developing world.
The group is also discussing the im-
plied tradeoffs among emissions reduc-
First, we can probably not afford to
Should major worldwide reductions in
tions, technological changes, population
wait until all of the uncertainties have been
greenhouse gas emissions be deemed nec-
resolved before we do act. Time will not
essary to address this problem, it will re-
growth, and growth in per capita GNP
make the problem go away.
quire nothing less than a global bargain.
[gross national product]. The Japanese
The industrialized world will have to under-
delegation presented an analysis which
Second, while scientists refine the
implies that a technological revolution
state of our knowledge, we should focus
take the research and development of alter-
native energy sources; developing coun-
would be required to stabilize the atmos-
immediately on prudent steps that are al-
phere by the year 2090, if world economic
ready justified on grounds other than cli-
tries will have to forego the eras of defores-
growth is to be maintained at acceptable
mate change-what I call the "no regrets"
tation and smokestack development that
nurtured the modern industrial states of
levels. Such a 100-year perspective is
policy: things we will never regret doing,
whether or not global warming ever OC-
the north in their youth.
needed to determine what our climate
future might hold; whether that future is
curs. These include reducing CFC emis-
Such problems serve to remind us,
acceptable, and if not, how it might be
sions, greater energy efficiency, and refor-
however, that change is not only inevitable,
modified.
estation.
it is the source of new opportunities. The
Third, whatever global solutions to
world faced a serious energy crisis in the
Accordingly, at its next meeting in
global climate change are considered, they
19th century-it was running out of whale
Geneva in 2 weeks, the group will discuss
mechanisms for five categories of response
should be as specific and cost-effective as
oil. To John D. Rockefeller and Andrew
implementation, many of which are of
they can possibly be.
Mellon this was an opportunity, not a cri-
special interest to the developing world.
Finally, those solutions will be most ef-
sis. I imagine the whales would agree.
These include financial measures; technol-
fective if they transcend the great fault line
ogy transfer and development; public edu-
of our times-the need to reconcile the
Published by the United States Department
cation; economic (market) measures; and
human imperative for both economic devel-
of State
Bureau of Public Affairs
finally, legal measures, including elements
opment and a safe environment.
Office of Public Communication
Editorial
of a possible framework convention on
These remarks have become baseline
Division
Washington, D.C.
October 1989
climate change.
Editor: Sharon R. Haynes
This material is
national and, indeed, international policy
in the public domain and may be reprinted
on global warming.
without permission; citation of this source is
But improvements in energy efficiency,
appreciated.
dealing with CFCs, reforestation-such
measures, if undertaken-only postpone
the problem if the world continues to rely
REPORT
"Svolumes
X
United States UNITED
Fax
Office 1) Prolicy
James
Policy Options for Stabilizing Global Climate - Review Draft
Chapter V
It is conceptually useful to distinguish between production activities and consumption activities.
Production emissions arise largely from the processing of bulk materials--steel from ore, plastics from
petroleum, cement and glass from limestone and silicate rock--which requires large amounts of
energy per unit of industrial value added (i.e., the difference in value between an industry's products
and its inputs) and may also be associated with direct emissions of greenhouse gases. For example,
during cement making, CaCO3 is reformed to CaO + CO2, which is released to the atmosphere, and
during the making of plastic foams, CFCs are released. Much lower emissions per unit of value
added are generally associated with fabrication and finishing. Food production leads to emissions of
methane and nitrous oxide as discussed in Chapter IV, as well as to emissions of CO2 and other
gases as a result of the energy used on and, even more, off the farm. The large amount of energy
required to move freight is also attributable to production activities. Consumption leads to
greenhouse gas emissions as individuals use energy, primarily in pursuit of comfort (heating and air
conditioning) and mobility (automobile and air travel). Other major end-uses for energy include
refrigeration, lighting, water heating, and cooking.
Production
As societies develop over time, both the quantity and the structure of activities that influence
emissions change radically. For example, energy use per unit of Gross National Product (GNP) has
declined steadily and dramatically in industrialized countries, even in periods of declining real energy
prices (Figure 5-1). This decline is due to a combination of two factors. First, improvements in
production processes, which often save capital and labor as well as energy, reduce the energy intensity
per ton of physical output. For example, in steel production modern energy recovery and process
technology make it possible to produce a ton of steel using only 13x10° joules (13 GJ) of final
DRAFT - DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE
V-7
February 16, 1989
Apocalypse sells well in the media and even better on Capitol
Hill. And that is why fears of the greenhouse effect threaten
to push the U.S. into a costly environmental mistake.
THE GLOBAL
WARMING PANIC
13.0
(degrees
centigrade).contiguousU.
12.5
12.0
93 year mean
DATE
11.5
ST
11.0
bulenor
10.5
10.0
9.5
950
Yearly total of average precipitation over contiguous U.S. (millimeters)
900
850
800
motords
750
700
93-year
mean
650
600
1895
1905
25
35
45
'55
65
'75
'85 12 '89
FORBES estimate.
Source: Kirby Hanson et al., Geophysical Research Letters
96
FORBES, DECEMBER 25, 1989
By Warren T. Brookes
savaged by environmentalists, and by
al warming debate, and it explains
politicians like Senator Gore
why the U.S. and Japanèse position
N Nov. 7 THE U.S. and Japan
(D-Tenn.). The Bush viewpoint does
was supported by some 30 other de-
shocked environmentalists
not sit too well with most of the me-
veloping nations which see that just
around the world by refusing to
dia, either. Last January Time pub-
as Marxism is giving way to markets,
sign a draft resolution at a Nether-
lished a cover story on environmental
the political "greens" seem deter-
lands international conference on
catastrophes, declaring that green-
mined to put the world economy back
global climate change calling for the
house gases could create a climatic
into the red, using the greenhouse ef-
"stabilization" of emissions of carbon
calamity. The New York Times weighed
fect to stop unfettered market-based
dioxide (cO₂) and other "greenhouse
in a month ago with a story about
economic expansion.
gases" by the year 2000. Instead, they
how melting polar ice would flood the
In simplest terms, the earth's atmo-
made the conference drop all refer-
nations that can least afford to defend
sphere does operate as a greenhouse.
ence to a specific year, and to a specif-
themselves, Third World countries
In addition to oxygen, nitrogen and
ic CO₂ reduction target. The Bush Ad-
like Bangladesh and India. Or perhaps
water vapor, the atmosphere contains
ministration view was set forth by D.
you have seen the ads for Stephen
several gases that trap radiated heat,
Allan Bromley, the presidential sci-
Schneider's Global Warming, accompa-
including methane and CO2. Carbon
ence adviser, in testimony to Senator
nied by a blurb from Senator Tim
dioxide is essential not only to
Albert Gore's subcommittee on Sci-
Wirth (D-Colo.). In his book this
warmth but to vegetation. It is also
ence, Technology & Space: "My belief
well-known climatologist paints a fu-
essential to life in another way: With-
is that we should not move forward
ture of seas surging across the land,
out its heat-containing effect the
on major programs until we have a
famine on an epidemic scale and eco-
planet would freeze, like the atmo-
reasonable understanding of the sci-
system collapse.
spherically naked moon.
entific and economic consequences of
Is the earth really on the verge of
Throughout most of human history
those programs."
environmental collapse? Should
that atmospheric blanket has held
President Bush was immediately
wrenching changes be made in the
global temperatures at an average of
world's industry to contain CO₂ build-
about 60 degrees F., plus or minus 5
up? Or could we be witnessing the
degrees F. During most of human his-
1990s version of earlier scares: nucle-
tory, the CO₂ concentration in that
Fahrenheit 52
ar winter, cancer-causing cranberries
blanket has, until this century, hov-
and $100 oil? The calamitarians al-
ered around 270 parts per million, al-
That's the average
ways have something to worry us
though in earlier geologic epochs it
temperature in the U.S. for
about. Consider this: In his 1976
reached as high as 20,000.
the period 1895-1987, as
book, The Genesis Strategy, Schneider
Over the last 100 years the CO₂ con-
displayed in an academic
lent support to the then popular view
centration has risen from 270 to to-
journal article earlier this
that we could be in for another ice
day's level of 350. The culprit: man.
year by three meteorologists
age, "perhaps one akin to the Little
Most of the greenhouse gas increase is
questioning the greenhouse
Ice Age of 1500-1850. Climatic vari-
the result of fossil fuel consumption.
effect. If there is a warming
ability, which is the bane of reliable
Add to that the rise in other man-
trend at all, it is very hard to
food production, can be expected to
generated trace gases-methane, ni-
see against the background of
increase along with the cooling."
trogen oxides and chlorofluorocar-
statistical "noise"-random
At the very moment Bromley was
bons-and total greenhouse gases are
annual variation. So, too, for
testifying to Gore's subcommittee,
now at 410 ppm. In other words, be-
rainfall, which has averaged
MIT'S prestigious Technology Review
cause of the combined effect of these
29 inches a year across the
was reporting on the publication of an
gases, we have already gone over half-
U.S. since 1895. Here we
exhaustive new study of worldwide
way to a doubling of CO2. Even so,
have reproduced the data
ocean temperatures since 1850 by MIT
there has been less than half a degree
from the academic article,
climatologists Reginald Newell, Jane
of warming in the last 100 years.
with the original long-term
Hsiung and Wu Zhongxiang. Its most
What do the environmental pessi-
average lines. We have also
striking conclusion: "There appears
mists make of all this? The earliest
extended the history to cover
to have been little or no global warm-
versions of their computer "general
1988 and an estimate for
ing over the past century." In fact, the
circulation models" predicted that
1989, extrapolated from
average ocean temperature in the tor-
the earth would warm up by any-
January-November recordings.
rid 1980s was only an eighth of a
where from 3 to 5 degrees centigrade,
Scientists who are skeptical
centigrade degree (a quarter of a Fahr-
or 5 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit, by the
of the greenhouse theory
enheit degree) higher than the average
year 2050. The most extreme scenari-
don't deny that carbon
of the 1860s. Ocean temperature is
os warn of coastal flooding (from
dioxide can trap heat; they
now virtually the same as it was in
melting ice caps) and rising inland
argue, rather, that the effect
the 1940s. Since two-thirds of the
droughts. However, as the level of so-
is much fainter and harder to
buildup of CO₂ has taken place since
phistication of the models has risen,
predict than the alarmists
1940, the MIT data blow all of the
these forecast effects have been
want to believe.
global warming forecasts into a
steadily reduced to a new range of 1.5
cocked hat. President Bush wisely
to 2.5 degrees centigrade.
told reporters: "You can't take a poli-
One major exception to this declin-
cy and drive it to the extreme and say
ing rate of doom is the model run by
to every country around the world,
James Hansen of the National Aero-
'You aren't going to grow at all.'
nautics & Space Administration, who
That is the central issue of the glob-
shocked a congressional hearing in
Andrew Christie
FORBES, DECEMBER 25, 1989
97
Dennis Brack/Black Star
The Environmental Protection
Agency finds that just to stabilize U.S.
CO2 emissions at present levels would
force 30% taxes on oil and coal, while
to meet environmentalists' demands
for a 20% reduction in U.S. CO2 emis-
sions would require a tax of $25 per
barrel on oil, and $200 a ton on coal,
effectively doubling U.S. energy costs.
Unfortunately, the popular media
don't seem to care. In May the nation-
al press erupted in a two-day firestorm
when Hansen told Senator Gore's
subcommittee that the Office of Man-
agement & Budget had censored his
florid global warming testimony by
adding the modest caveat, "These
changes should be viewed as esti-
mates from evolving computer mod-
els and not as reliable predictions."
Yet, at the moment of that testimo-
ny, 61 of the world's top climatolo-
gists, gathered for a five-day work-
shop in Amherst, Mass., were largely
agreeing with OMB. Science magazine
reported that most of the attendees
were pleasantly surprised by OMB'S
efforts to control Hansen: "I can't say
I agree with censorship, but it seems
OMB has better people than I thought.
I'd have to agree with their angle,"
said Rick Katz of the National Center
for Atmospheric Research, one of the
leading modelers.
Conference leader Michael Schle-
singer, another top modeler (Universi-
ty of Illinois), agreed: "[Hansen's]
statements have given people the feel-
ing the greenhouse effect has been
Senator Gore contemplating sympathetic witness James Hansen
detected with certitude. Our current
Censorship? OMB merely said computer models are poor predictors.
understanding does not support that.
Confidence in its detection is now
June 1988 during the middle of a
it's true, shouldn't we take precau-
down near zero."
scorching near-nationwide drought,
tions and act now as if it were?"
That conclusion was buttressed by
by saying he was "99% confident" the
Unfortunately, "taking such pre-
one of the deans of U.S. climatology,
greenhouse effect is now here.
cautions" could well spell the end of
Reid Bryson, a founder of the Institute
Even though the vast majority of
the American dream for us and the
for Environmental Studies at the Uni-
the climatological community was
world. Once CO₂ is in the atmosphere,
versity of Wisconsin, who said in July:
outraged by Hansen's unproven asser-
we can't easily remove it. Since most
"The very clear statements that have
tions, environmental advocate Ste-
of the forecast rise in the gas is a
been made [by Hansen] that the green-
phen Schneider notes in Global Warm-
function of simple economic and pop-
house warming is here already and
ing, "Journalists loved it. Environ-
ulation growth in the Third World,
that the globe will be 4 degrees [centi-
mentalists were ecstatic. Jim
there is no realistic economic way to
grade] warmer in 50 years cannot be
appeared on a dozen or more national
prevent a CO2 doubling without slash-
accepted."
television news programs
ing growth and risking a revolt of the
On Dec. 24, 1988, Hansen received
By the end of 1988, with Hansen
have-not nations against the haves.
an unwelcome Christmas present in
and Schneider's enthusiastic support,
The Washington, D.C.-based Center
the form of a new research paper by
global warming was deeply embedded
for Strategic & International Studies
one of the world's most universally
in the public consciousness. Now
points out that, even though the U.S.
respected climatologists, Thomas
over 60% of the public is convinced it
is now the largest carbon fuel user, it's
Karl, and two of his colleagues at the
will worsen, even as the evidence of
the developing countries that will
National Oceanographic & Atmo-
that alleged trend is under increasing-
quadruple their energy consumption
spheric Administration, Kirby Han-
ly sharp and solid scientific attack.
by 2025. "By the middle of the next
son and George Maul. Their review of
On the contrary, that attack has
century, they will account for the
the best climate record in the world-
been used as a premise for even more
bulk of the greenhouse gases emitted
that of the 48 contiguous United
immediate action. As one TV anchor-
into the atmosphere, even if they suc-
States-concluded: "There is no sta-
man argued, "Even if we aren't sure
ceed in doubling energy efficiency."
tistically significant evidence of an
98
FORBES, DECEMBER 25, 1989
Tom Bamberger
overall increase in annual tempera-
ture or change in annual precipitation
for the contiguous U.S. 1895-1987."
Look at the chart on pages 96-97. As
Karl says in an interview, "If there is a
greenhouse warming effect, you can't
find it in the U.S. records.'
That news alone should have
cooled off the global warming move-
ment. But the environmentalists ac-
cepted Hansen's dismissal of the pa-
per as "not significant" because the
data covered only 1.5% of the earth's
surface, not nearly enough to identify
major trends.
But MIT meteorologist Richard
Lindzen says that Hansen's rebuttal is
out of line. He points out that because
of the law of large numbers-the fact
that a large enough sample is likely to
give an accurate picture of a larger
population-"the absence of any
trend in the record of the contiguous
U.S. leads to the suspicion that all the
trends in the global record may be
spurious."
The major reason for this is that
when you fully subject global tem-
perature records (as Karl did the U.S.
records) to adjustment for the effects
of urbanization (cities are heat islands
that artificially inflate temperature
Reid Bryson of the University of Wisconsin
records), the global warming trend
"Models are marvels of mathematics but crude imitators of reality."
since 1880 has been only a third of a
degree centigrade, and over the
Betsv Bassett
Northern Hemisphere land masses,
no trend at all.
00
Here's another fact, noted by Hugh
Ellsaesser of Lawrence Livermore
Laboratories, that should trouble the
calamity theorists: Most of the past
century's warming trend took place
by 1938, well before the rise in CO2
concentration. From 1938 to 1970
temperatures plunged so sharply a
B
new ice age was widely forecast. Fur-
thermore, the warming trend since
9
1976 has been just the opposite of that
forecast by the greenhouse model,
with cooling in both the northern Pa-
a
cific and North Atlantic.
In fact, the Northern Hemisphere
shows no net change over the last 55
years, during which CO₂ concentra-
tion rose from approximately 300 to
350 ppm and other thermally active
trace gases were in their steepest
growth phases.
In spite of this clear lack of correlat-
ed warming evidence, one of the lead-
ing climate models now predicts that
a 1% annual rise in CO₂ should, over
30 years, produce a 0.7-degree centi-
grade warming. But when Patrick Mi-
chaels of the University of Virginia
Richard Lindzen, professor of meteorology at MIT
applied that formula to the period
His prediction for the next century: a few tenths of a degree of warming.
from 1950 to 1988, when greenhouse
FORBES, DECEMBER 25, 1989
99
John Harding
vapor to form what are known as "aer-
osols," which have the effect of
brightening clouds and making them
reflect more heat away from the earth.
Wisconsin's Reid Bryson described
this effect as early as 20 years ago.
Bryson's thesis was scorned at the
time. But last June, Thomas Wigley,
one of England's top climatologists
and a global warming enthusiast, con-
ceded in a paper in Nature magazine
that sulfur dioxide cooling "is suffi-
ciently large that the effects may have
significantly offset the temperature
changes that resulted from the green-
house effect."
Michaels says this could also ex-
plain in part why U.S. daytime highs
(when brighter clouds have the most
cooling effect) have actually declined
substantially in the last 50 years, even
as the nighttime lows have risen.
"This should make you wonder," says
Michaels, "why Hansen [and others]
have only perturbed their models
with CO₂, and not with SO₂ as well. If
you only perturb the model with CO2,
it will predict the greenhouse warm-
ing effect. If you only perturb it with
SO₂, you get an ice age."
Hugh Ellsaesser says the main rea-
son the models have been so com-
pletely wrong in "predicting" the past
is that they completely ignore the
countervailing, thermostatic effects
Hugh Ellsaesser of Lawrence Livermore Laboratories
of the hydrological cycle of evapora-
Surprise: At low latitudes, CO2 actually thins the greenhouse blanket.
tion and condensation. Two-thirds of
the predicted global warming is due
gases rose 1.2% per year, he found a
than greenhouse gases and is infinite-
not directly to CO₂'S radiative power
tiny 0.2-degree warming in land tem-
ly variable. Yet, because cloud cover
but to an indirect effect: Carbon diox-
peratures, where the model would
has been documented only for a de-
ide warming supposedly causes a
have predicted 1.3 degrees. When a
cade or so (by weather satellites), the
threefold amplification of water vapor
model cannot come within 500% of
models have little to go on. Until re-
surface evaporation into the atmo-
explaining the past, it is useless as a
cently, the modelers assumed that
spheric blanket.
predictor of anything.
warmth gave rise to the kind of clouds
But Ellsaesser says in the warmer,
As Reid Bryson concludes in a 1988
that trap heat, contributing still fur-
tropical latitudes, where the tempera-
paper, "A statement of what the cli-
ther to warming, in a vicious cycle.
ture change from sea-level upward is
mate is going to be in the year A.D.
But in June 1988, V. Ramanathan of
most rapid, evaporation has the oppo-
2050 is a 63-year forecast. Do the
the University of Chicago and a team
site effect. There, water vapor rises by
models have a demonstrated capabili-
of scientists at NASA concluded from
deep convection in fast-rising towers.
ty of making a 63-year forecast? No. A
preliminary satellite data that
This in turn leads to more rapid con-
6.3-year forecast? No. Have they suc-
"clouds appear to cool earth's cli-
densation and precipitation, which
cessfully simulated the climatic vari-
mate," possibly offsetting the atmo-
then causes a drying and thinning of
ation of the past century and a half?
spheric greenhouse effect.
the upper atmosphere in a process
No. They are marvels of mathematics
The supreme irony is that this
called subsidence. "In the lower lati-
and computer science, but rather
"cooling effect," most pronounced in
tudes, a rise in CO2 emissions will
crude imitators of reality."
the Northern Hemisphere, coincides
produce a 3-to-1 rise in greenhouse
The major weakness of the models
with the paths of coal-burning emis-
blanket thinning due to condensation.
is their assumption that the CO2
sion plumes with their high concen-
That's exactly the opposite of what
buildup is the significant climate
tration of sulfur dioxide. That con-
the models predict," he says.
variable, and should ceteris paribus (all
firms a long-held thesis that sulfur
An eminent British scientist, Sir
other things being equal) generate
dioxide creates "cool clouds." Of
James Lovelock, says this hydrologi-
warming. But, as it turns out, the cete-
course, it is very upsetting to an envi-
cal process "is comparable in magni-
ris are decidedly not paribus.
ronmentalist to discover that a pollut-
tude with that of the carbon dioxide
One of those variables is cloud cov-
ant has a beneficial side effect.
greenhouse, but in opposition to it."
er, which is at least 100 times more
Sulfur dioxide emissions not only
National Oceanographic scientist
powerful in affecting temperatures
acidify rain, they combine with water
Thomas Karl agrees: "We will eventu-
100
FORBES, DECEMBER 25, 1989
Walter Calahan
JANUARY SNOWLINE
WARM:
1975,
1987
+4%
Patrick Michaels, professor of environmental science at the University of Virginia
His prediction for 1991: a heat wave, accompanied by a global warming panic.
ally discover how naive we have been
massive levels of economic, social,
known as El Niño tends to warm and
in not considering CO₂'S effects on
scientific and political spending and
cool in two-year cycles. Just as its
cloud cover and convection. As CO2
interference, on a par with the old
warming cycle produced the 1987-88
speeds up the hydrological cycle,
Energy Department. Don't forget the
droughts, in 1989 it cooled sharply,
more convection creates more clouds
energy crisis: During the 1970s, a
making the U.S. much cooler and
and more cooling. So, the greenhouse
great many less-than-honest scien-
wetter than Hansen had forecast, and
effect could turn out to be minimal, or
tists confidently predicted the world
that is likely to happen in 1990, again.
even benign."
was about to run out of fossil fuels,
But that means that 1991 and 1992
MIT'S Richard Lindzen thinks that
and that by 1985, we'd be paying $100
should be warmer and drier than usu-
correcting for deep convection alone
a barrel for oil, or more. We wasted
al as the El Niño current warms. It
could lower the global warming esti-
billions on energy subsidies.
won't matter that this has nothing to
mates by a factor of six. As a result, he
Senator Albert Gore is evidence of
do with global warming, the media
says, "It is very unlikely that we will
this public choice phenomenon. He
will perceive it that way, and people
see more than a few tenths of a degree
seems determined to run his next
will tend to believe it."
centigrade from this cause [co₂] over
presidential campaign at least in part
Bernard Cohen, a physicist at the
the next century."
on climate change, saving Mother
University of Pittsburgh, warns, in a
In the face of such mounting evi-
Earth. Every year, at least one-sixth of
1984 book: "Our government's sci-
dence, U.S. businesses may stop wor-
the U.S. is classified by the govern-
ence and technology policy is now
rying about devastating legislative en-
ment's Palmer Index as being in
guided by uninformed and emotion-
actments. That could be a mistake. As
drought. Even though that index over-
driven public opinion rather than by
Nobel economist James Buchanan ar-
states the case, Gore could be looking
sound scientific advice. Unless solu-
gues, what drives Washington policy-
at some very big political states—
tions can be found to this problem,
making is not economic or scientific
maybe California or Texas or Iowa-
the U.S. will enter the 21st century
realities but "public choice," the pur-
where his message will resonate with
declining in wealth, power and in-
suit of power and funding.
farmers and business. All he has to do
fluence.
The coming debacle is
The public choice potential of glob-
is wait for a warm spell, and capitalize
not due to the problems the environ-
al warming'is immense. Under a glob-
on what mathematicians call noise in
mentalists describe, but to the poli-
al warming scenario, the EPA would
the statistics.
cies they advocate."
become the most powerful govern-
Patrick Michaels explains: "We
"Global warming" may well prove
ment agency on earth, involved in
know that, the Pacific Ocean current
Cohen right.
102
FORBES, DECEMBER 25, 1989
Research News
Greenhouse Skeptic Out in the Cold
A prominent meteorologist says the greenhouse warming will probably be a bust; experts in and
out of the climate community staunchly disagree with this latest iconoclast
IF THE LONG, HOT SUMMER OF '88 sparked
report by the George C. Marshall Institute, a
community under attack by Lindzen dis-
the greenhouse revolution, the near normal
Washington D.C. think tank. That report,
agree-some of them vehemently. One of
weather of 1989 is bringing on the counter-
which also dismisses current forecasts of
these is Jerry D. Mahlman, the director of
revolution. A small but growing cadre of
greenhouse warming as useless, may have
NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab-
skeptics is now decrying predictions that the
influenced the recent U.S. decision not to
oratory in Princeton, New Jersey. When
greenhouse warming of the next century will
commit itself to reducing carbon dioxide
Mahlman reviewed Lindzen's manuscript
surely be severe enough to cause drought,
emissions.
for the Bulletin of the American Meteorological
agricultural disaster, and inundation by ris-
People are also listening to Lindzen be-
Society, he "recommended the paper be
ing seas.
cause his latest volley in the greenhouse wars
rejected unless he [Lindzen] wanted to con-
The computer models producing such
is an extreme and potentially devastating
vert it into a paper about science. It came
doomsday predictions are rife with uncer-
one: he says that the computer models that
across as a whiny complaint without scien-
tainty, the skeptics say, the alarm is unwar-
predict a large greenhouse effect are proba-
tific justification. Dick Lindzen is a friend of
ranted at this point, and the rush to reduce
bly fatally flawed because they neglect to
mine, so I did not say that lightly. I was very
the emissions of carbon dioxide and the
consider that the atmosphere can take care
disappointed." The paper is still pending at
other greenhouse gases that cause atmo-
of itself. Greenhouse gases will inevitably
the Bulletin.
spheric warming is ill-advised. The warming
Others who run the big climate models
in the next century may well be negligible or
join Mahlman in complaining that Lindzen
even benign, a few maintain.
seems to claim he has a better climate model
Richard Lindzen, if not the commander-
in his head than they have in their super-
in-chief of these counterrevolutionary
computers. But what Lindzen has now is
forces, is a top general. His troops, at least
not so much a complete model as an idea
the outspoken ones, number less than a
about how control of atmospheric tempera-
dozen and are drawn from the ranks of
ture works. Indeed, he describes it himself as
climatologists, meteorologists, and an as-
an idea of a theological or philosophical
sortment of related disciplines. Most have
nature.
not specialized in greenhouse research and
"The most likely area to search for severe
have only recently entered the fray.
problems [with the models] is in the interac-
The claims of Lindzen and his cohorts
tion of climate with water (in all its
have not gone unchallenged, however. They
phases)," he wrote in his paper. "The re-
are already drawing return fire from main-
markable thermodynamic properties of wa-
stream greenhouse researchers, although
ter almost certainly lead to its acting
even some of these concede that greenhouse
nature's thermostat."
OCEANS
warming may be less severe than the worst
Where the big greenhouse models go
case predictions (see box on p. 1119).
MIT
wrong, Lindzen says, is that their water
One reason for Lindzen's prominence
Richard Lindzen. The atmosphere can
always responds to a warming by amplifying
among the greenhouse skeptics is his cre-
negate most of the greenhouse warming.
it through positive feedbacks. Water never
dentials. Educated at Harvard, Sloan Profes-
tends to counteract the warming. For exam-
sor of Meteorology at the Massachusetts
increase, he admits. They will even double
ple, a warming would drive more water
Institute of Technology, and member of the
some time in the next century, but the
vapor into the atmosphere, where it can act
National Academy of Sciences, Lindzen has
atmosphere will likely warm by at most a
as a greenhouse gas to trap more heat and
made major contributions to the theory of
few tenths of a degree, not the 1.5° to 4.5°C
further warm the climate. Lindzen finds the
how the atmosphere behaves.
that researchers running the models expect.
absence of counterbalancing negative feed-
No other U.S. skeptic has such scientific
"
both the data and our scientific
backs, in which water would respond by
stature. So when he says the greenhouse
understanding do not support the present
cooling climate, to be "highly unlikely."
effect "is the only subject in atmospheric
level of concern," he has written in a widely
If water-related negative feedbacks exist,
science where a consensus view has been
circulated, but as yet unpublished, manu-
Lindzen argues, they are most likely to occur
declared before the research has hardly be-
script on the subject. As Lindzen under-
in the tropics above an altitude of 5 kilome-
gun," people are going to listen. Among
stands the atmosphere, it will in all likeli-
ters near towering columns of cloud. They
those reportedly listening are President
hood react to the warming effect of addi-
carry air from the lower to the upper tropo-
George Bush and White House Chief of
tional greenhouse gases with a countereffect
sphere, which is the weather-generating lay-
Staff John Sununu (Science, 24 November,
of its own a so-called negative feedback,
er of the atmosphere. As air rises, it cools.
P. 992). In September, Lindzen coauthored
that will neutralize most of the warming.
This cooling wrings out much of the air's
a letter to the President in support of a
Researchers in the computer modeling
burden of moisture, which falls back toward
1118
SCIENCE, VOL. 246
Dec. / 1989
the surface as rain. Thus dried, the rising air
expect that corrected models may very well
vations about Lindzen's ideas on negative
the upper troposphere.
end up predicting greenhouse warmings of
feedback mechanisms harken back to the
Lindzen contends that as carbon dioxide
only a few tenths of a degree Centigrade" for
modelers' complaints. "He's focused on one
increases and tends to warm the atmosphere,
the next century.
aspect," says Peter Stone of Lindzen's own
this convection-driven conveyor belt will
The modelers, perhaps predictably, ob-
department at MIT, "but.if you look at the
run faster and more efficiently so that it will
ject. "He says water is a negative feedback,
whole of it, I don't think you'd have a
carry more and even drier air to the upper
but how does he know that?" asks Stephen
negative feedback."
troposphere. That would reduce the heat-
Schneider of the National Center for Atmo-
Alan Betts, a respected independent spe-
trapping moisture in the upper atmosphere,
spheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder.
cialist in the mechanics of convection who
allowing more heat to radiate to space.
"Does he have a calculation, or is his brain
works near Middlebury, Vermont, agrees
Voilà, a negative feedback-the warmer the
better than our models? You can't just sit
that Lindzen's argument ignores too many
climate, the dryer the upper troposphere,
there and build a model of one sector of the
of the atmosphere's complexities. According
the greater the heat loss, the more the
atmosphere, then extrapolate to the globe.
to Betts, moisture is transported into the
atmosphere cools. And, crucial to his argu-
That's why you build global models."
tropical atmosphere at all levels, and not just
ment, Lindzen believes the models do not
Lindzen's negative feedback mechanism
near the bottom, as in Lindzen's scheme.
contain this negative feedback.
"is true in a qualitative sense," says Mahl-
"His argument depends very heavily on
"When it is recognized that at least some
man, "but the magnitude of the effect is tiny.
moisture distribution with height and how
of these [water-related] feedbacks are likely
I know of no [observational] evidence sup-
it would change with a warming," Betts
to be negative rather than positive," writes
porting it. I could be wrong; Lindzen is a
says. "We don't fully understand moisture
Lindzen in his unpublished manuscript, "it
smart person, but I'm afraid he's confused."
transport, but the model studies I have done
is easy to see that the actual response to a
Rebuttals from the modelers might be
would not support his arguments. I person-
doubling of CO2 may readily be 1/8 to 1/14-or
predictable, but none of Lindzen's meteo-
ally doubt they would hold."
even less-of what is suggested" by the
rology colleagues contacted by Science will
At best, meteorologists take a noncom-
consensus view. "
one may reasonably
take the extreme stance he has. Their reser-
mittal stance on Lindzen's ideas. For exam-
ple, MIT meteorologist Kerry Emanuel
points out that currently no one can esti-
mate how much of the water that goes up in
Turning Down the Heat
clouds precipitates and how much is left
over to moisten the upper troposphere. "It's
Greenhouse researchers may not be willing to accept Richard Lindzen's thesis that
conceivable that the drying effect could out-
atmospheric warming over the next century will be next to nothing (see accompany-
weigh the moistening effect," Emanuel re-
ing story). But some of them are willing to concede right now that things may not
marks.
turn out quite as badly as some of the models have predicted. If these researchers are
Whether this particular negative feedback
proven right, the scenarios that forecast everything for the next century from a new
counteracts the greenhouse warming or not,
dust bowl in the American West to beachfront properties being swept away by a rising
Lindzen argues, other negative feedbacks
sea would have to be toned down. However, as often is the case in this business, there
must be operating. In another of his philo-
is enough lingering uncertainty to give everyone pause.
sophical assertions, Lindzen believes that
One major indication that greenhouse warming may be less than expected is the
negative feedbacks, whether his drying effect
modest rise in global temperatures that occurred during the past 100 years or so. It
or others, dominate any positive, warming
was only 0.5°C, or perhaps less. And a number of greenhouse skeptics, including
feedbacks. On timescales of a few hundred
meteorologist Lindzen of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, have argued
years and less, he says, even the hardest push
that the temperature record is so fraught with uncertainties that even this apparent
from whatever quarter would not drive the
warming is as good as zero. If that is the case, then temperatures are likely to go up
relatively insensitive climate system into a
only a few tenths of a degree Centigrade by the middle of the next century. Hardly the
distinctly warmer stage.
stuff of cataclysmic drought and coastal inundation.
Lindzen's confidence in the insensitivity
But even Lindzen has admitted that the observed warming is also consistent with a
and stability of climate is not shared by
future temperature increase of as much as 2°C. That still falls in the range predicted by
many modelers. Skeptics "count all the neg-
the models, but at the lower end, not the 4° to 5°C increases of the upper end on
ative feedbacks we don't know about," says
which the scariest scenarios are based.
Schneider, "and forget about the positive
This middle ground is becoming more popular. "I agree the past 100 years of
ones we don't know about."
warming may not strongly suggest the climate sensitivity is 4°C, but it is consistent
There are a dozen or so potentially posi-
with 2°C," says Syukuro Manabe of NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Labora-
tive, warming feedbacks that, even in their
tory, where he runs one of the five world-class greenhouse models. Michael
current rudimentary forms, have yet to be
MacCracken, who runs another one at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in
included in the models. Increased tempera-
Livermore, California, tends to settle on 2° +1 1°C as well (Science, 6 January, p. 28). A
tures would, for example, melt permafrost
2°C global warming would still have significant social and ecological effects, however.
ice, thereby releasing methane (a green-
But there is a catch to these efforts to use the past to predict the future. The past
house gas). Whether the net effect of such
behavior could be misleading because the mechanisms capable of amplifying an
neglected feedbacks will drive the warming
increase in global temperatures can be slow to take hold. And so, a big warming could
beyond even the range predicted by the
be awaiting us in the next century without having revealed itself up until now.
models, no one knows. And with that kind
We may know soon. The models that predict the largest warmings call for the
of uncertainty remaining, the modeling
upward trend to become obvious by the early 1990s, barring non-greenhouse changes
community is in no mood to entertain Lind-
in climate (Science, 2 June, P. 1041).
R.A.K.
zen's criticisms, not in their present philo-
sophical guise.
RICHARD A. KERR
I DECEMBER 1989
RESEARCH NEWS
1119
TIMES 12-13-89
Skeptics Are Challenging
112
of the American Meteorological Soci-
Dire 'Greenhouse' Views
ety. "If the policy going to be that ex-
pensive, the science should be much
less murky than It is now,' he said.
Other scientists have long acknowl-
By WILLIAM K. STEVENS
edged the uncertainties of global
As governments try to come to
warming predictions, but argue that
grips with what is widely depicted
Forecast and Its Basis
they will not be eliminated in time for
as a potentially catastrophic
Most of the dissenters' asser-
effective action to be taken.
warming of the Earth's surface,
tions are, being challenged in turn
"My feeling is that the uncertainty
dissenting scientists are challeng-
by scientists who adhere to the
will always remain," said Syukuro
Ing what they see as unneces-
better-known view of global
Manabe of the National Oceanic and
sarily gloomy predictions.
Atmospheric Administration's Geo-
warming. This view holds that in-
The skeptics contend that fore-
physical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
creasing concentrations of green-
at Princeton University, a leading
casts of global warming are
house gases are likely to cause
climatologist. Dr. Manabe's laboratory
flawed and overstated and that
the average temperature of the
runs one of the major mathematical
the future might even hold no sig-
air at the Earth's surface to In-
models of the global climate on which
nificant warming at all. Some say
crease by three to eight degrees
attempts to forecast future warming
that if the warming is modest, as
Fahrenheit some time in the next
are mostly based. "We have to make
they believe likely, It could bring
century, from the current global
decisions based on uncertain informa-
average level of 57 degrees That
tion," he said. "I don't think we have
any other choice."
Split Forecast
amount of increase is generally
In view of the uncertainty, some
accepted by a number of national
scientists favor taking actions that
Dissent on Global Warming
and international scientific
would bring major benefits in their
A special report.
groups that have sought a consensi
own right, like increasing energy effi-
the issue, including various panels of
ciency and pressing the development of
the National Academy of Sciences.
alternative power sources.
benefits like longer growing sea-
The forecast is based largely on what
The Theory's Backers
sons in temperate zones, more
the forecasters see as the inherent
scientific logic of the greenhouse
Among those who oppose dissenters
rain in dry areas and an enrich-
theory and on the computerized simu-
like Dr. Bryson, Dr. Lindzen, Dr.
ment of crops and plant life.
lations of the future atmosphere. The
Namias and Dr. Michaels are, for ex-
In any case, they argue, it would
forecasters expect the warming to
ample, James E. Hansen of the God-
be a mistake to take drastic and
raise sea levels, through the expansion
dard Institute for Space Studies in New
costly steps to limit emissions of
of warming water and the melting of
York City; Michael Oppenheimer, a
carbon dioxide and other gases
senior scientist with the the Environ-
ice around the world: to change the
that trap the sun's heat in the
mate of the globe, and to disrupt weath-
mental Defense Fund; George M.
earth's atmosphere until more is
human society and balances among
Woodwell, director of the Woods Hole
known about the problem, These
plants and animals
Research Center, and Stephen H.
"greenhouse" gases are building
Both the dissenters and those who
Schneider of the National Center for
up as a result of human activity,
call for action have been pressing their
Atmospheric Research.
especially the burning of fossil
arguments in Washington as the Bush
Dr. Hansen helped propel the issue of
fuels.
Administration grapples with pres-
global warming to the forefront last
sures to reduce the burning of fossil
year when, at the height of the 1988
fuels like coal and oil, which are the
heat wave and drought, he testified be-
Most Have No Firm Position
main source of human-produced at-
fore Congress that global warming
Exactly how many scientists
mospheric carbon dioxide.
caused by increasing concentrations of
are involved in serious climatic
Current forecasts of global warming
greenhouse gases was already under
research is unclear, but experts in
"are so inaccurate and fraught with
way.
the field say it includes fewer than
The climate models that draw much
uncertainty as to be useless to policy-
300 climatologists, meteorolo-
makers," Richard S. Lindzen of the
of the dissenters' criticism are mathe-
gists, geophysicists and people in
Massachusetts of Institute of Tech-
matical equations that simulate the
related fields. Many of them, per-
nology and Jerome Namias of the
physical workings of the atmosphere.
haps the majority, have not taken
Scripps Institution Oceanography in La
Scientists can insert any set of condi-
a firm position in the debate; they
Jolla, Calif., wrote in a letter to Presi-
tions they like - a given concentration
dent Bush in late September. The two
of greenhouse gases, for instance -
say that while the greenhouse
authorities on meteorology are both
and a computer calculates how the cli-
theory is valid in general, there
members of the National Academy of
mate would change, including changes
Won Blake,on
are too many uncertainties about
Sciences.
In the average global temperature.
its future effects.
Their warning was one of several
Global warming theorists maintain
Fr. Rev:
Both of the other factions -
cautionary pleas now coming forth in
that a relatively small increase in the
the aftermath of months of speeches,
temperature can have major conse-
the bet lack
those who believe global warming
writings and testimony to Congress by
quences. For example, they point out,
to be a clear and definite threat
scientists and environmentalists who
the average temperature since the end
and those who say there is likely
urge prompt countermeasures. Some
of the last ice age has increased by nine
all correction
to be no significant warming -
important officials in the Administra-
degrees.
appear to be in & minority. Au-
tion, including John H. Sununu, the
But the computer models "are serl-
while the worst
thorities on weather and climate
White House chief of staff, have also
ously exaggerating the warming by at
can be found in all three groups.
urged caution until further research is
least two to threefold," said Hugh W.
performed.
Ellsaesser, a meteorologist at Law-
Much of the dissenters' criti-
are filled with
rence Livermore Laboratory in Call-
cism is aimed at computerized
fornia who retired in 1986. He has been
mathematical models of the
Arguments and Evidence
working on the question of global
Assignate intersity.
world's climate on which fore-
warming since 1972.
casts of global warming are
largely based. The critics also cite
Computer Models'
data on past climatic trends, and
Complicating Factors
they say the theory of greenhouse
Accuracy Debated
warming has not yet been fully
Clouds and Oceans
explored.
Some of the dissenters, including Dr.
"It's not that we have a bad
Lindzen, say the scientific uncertainty
Poorly Understood
theory," said Reid A. Bryson of
could be reduced through a decade or
the University of Wisconsin, a
less of intensive research, perhaps in
three to five years. They counsel
All the models, said Dr. Lindzen, con-
leading climate theorist. "It's
against drastic action to cut fossil-fuel
tain flaws that "could easily reduce the
that we have an incomplete
emissions until then.
predictions for warming to well under
theory with a lot of bad science
"The expense is patently obvious,"
a degree" centigrade, or 1.8 degrees
being done."
said one of the most outspoken skep-
Fahrenheit. Not least among the flaws,
tics, Patrick Michaels, a professor of
he and others say, is that the models
environmental sciences at the Univer-
fail to properly reflect the climatic et-
fects of water vapor and clouds, which
Balance
sity of Virginia and a former president
can each overwhelm the effect of the
greenhouse gases.
Skeptics say that clouds might well
reduce the warming by reflecting sun-
light back into space, but some of the
TIMES: 12-13-89
model experts say they could also,
through a complex set of feedback
have not done well at matching the cli-
slightly. There is evidence $12 of the same
mechanisms, increase the warming.
matic trends on the scale of a century.
pattern in China and Australia, Mr.
Clouds are poorly simulated in all the
In the last century, according to some
Karl said. He said the reasons are un-
models, most climatologists agree. A
studies of temperature records, the
clear, although increasing cloudiness
average global temperature has risen
team at the United Kingdom Meteoro-
appears to have contributed to it in this
logical Office in England reported in
by about one degree. Simulations by
country.
some models show that It should have
September that by representing clouds
"If nature is declaring her green-
risen by about twice that much.
more realistically, its model had re-
house with a relative rise in the night-
duced the projection of expected
To the dissenters, this gap casts
time rather than the daytime," said Dr.
doubt on the models' credibility. To
warming from about nine degrees to
Michaels, "then the severity of the
some environmental scientists it shows
about five. The British model has usu-
problem is drastically reduced." In
the opposite. "We should be flabber-
ally produced the highest estimates.
fact, he said, warmer nights in temper-
gasted that the models can come that
The findings have been cited by the
ate regions would lengthen growing
close, given the uncertainties," said Dr.
skeptics as evidence that they are
seasons.
Oppenheimer of the Environmental
probably right in their contention that
This could especially benefit north-
Defense Fund, a research and ad-
the warming has been overstated. But
ern regions, in the Northern Hemi-
John F.B. Mitchell, the chief scientist
vocacy organization. The dispute on
sphere, some scientists believe, and
on the British project, said the result
this point is muddied by the variations
southern regions in the Southern. Some
did not mean that the group was cut-
in temperature profiles for past dec-
say, in fact, that countries like the
ades that emerge from different stud-
ting its forecast in half.
Soviet Union and Canada might well
So little is known about the charac-
les. Some studies suggest little or no
benefit from even a high degree of
teristics of clouds, he said, that even
warming over the last century, depend-
warming.
this latest simulation cannot be taken
ing on the data and methods used, and
as realistic. Rather, he said, the result
this has occasioned argument.
Russians Predict Benefits
"essentially illustrates our uncertain-
Two Soviet scientists, M. I. Budyko
ty" and underscores a serious lack of
Positive Vlews
and Y. S. Sedunov, have said in a paper
data on how clouds behave. Without
that increased rainfall over all the con-
better data, he said, "we can go on
Some See Benefits
tinents, along with the "fertilizer" ef-
doing numerical experiments till we're
fect on plants of carbon dioxide, "will
blue in the face and we won't reduce
the uncertainties."
In Warmer Earth
considerably enhance" plant produc-
tivity, increase harvests, make large
Oceans' Moderating Effects
barren territories suitable for agricul-
Few scientists believe greenhouse
ture and permit the expansion of crops
The models have only recently begun
to reflect the enormous capacity of the
warming can now be detected amid the
in other regions.
oceans to absorb heat, a factor that
normal swings of climate. But if it can,
But Dr. Woodwell of the Woods Hole
scientists believe will slow down global
says Dr. Michaels, the evidence might
Institute argues that global warming
warming substantially. Scientists
be emerging from data collected by a
would produce even more atmospheric
studying a model at the National Cen-
team headed by Thomas Karl, a cli-
carbon dioxide by speeding the decay
ter for Atmospheric Research in Boul-
mate-change analyst at the Govern-
of organic matter and accelerating the
der, Colo., recently completed a simu-
ment's climatic data center at Ashe-
respiration of plants. This new source
lation that included the ocean's influ-
ville, N.C.
of carbon dioxide, he believes, would
ence. It resulted in a warming of nearly
Studies there found that since the
more than offset the amount absorbed
three degrees when carbon dioxide in
mid-1950's, nighttime temperatures in
by plants in photosynthesis. It could
the atmosphere doubled, as against
much of the United States have risen in
easily exceed the amount from fossil-
about seven degrees in an earlier
fall, summer and winter, while day-
fuel burning, he says, and cause the
model run.
time temperatures have dropped
planet to warm up even more.
This was also seen by some dissent-
ers and Government officials as a one-
half reduction in the models' warming
estimates, but Warren Washington, one
of the chiefs of the Boulder experiment,
said that was a misinterpretation. The
modeling exercise was not fully played
out because of lack of computer access,
and the simulation was carried only 30
years into the future, he said. If it had
continued to the point where full effects
were felt, he said, the warming would
have been substantially larger.
Models and Measurements
Both Sides Claim
Support in Data
To some scientists who see them-
selves as neither dissenters nor back-
ers of specific warming predictions,
the uncertainties are perplexing and
frustrating.
"Common physical sense tells us
something is going to be happening" to
the world's climate because of the
greenhouse effect, said Robert D. Cess,
a professor of atmospheric sciences at
the State University of New York at
Stony Brook, who heads an interna-
tional group that assesses the models.
But he said the group's conclusion,
soon to be published, is that "we don't
know what these models are doing." He
said the models "as presently formu-
lated" cannot be used to predict future
global warming, and that "whether
they can ever be used for that purpose
is problematical."
Dr. Hansen defends the models,
pointing out that even as they have be-
come more sophisticated, their conclu-
sions about global warming have gen-
erally remained within the range pre-
dicted in the 1970's. Some defenders of
the models say they doubt that another
decade of refinements would substan-
tially alter the range.
Defenders also say the models have
validated themselves by successfully
simulating the waxing and waning of
Ice ages, present-day seasonal varia-
tions and the workings of the atmos-
pheres of Venus and Mars.
But the critics say that the models