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Originally Processed With FOIA(s): FOIA Number: S S FOIA MARKER This is not a textual record. This is used as an administrative marker by the George Bush Presidential Library Staff. Record Group/Collection: George H.W. Bush Presidential Records Collection/Office of Origin: Speechwriting, White House Office of Series: Speech File Backup Files Subseries: Chron File, 1989-1993 OA/ID Number: 13796 Folder ID Number: 13796-011 Folder Title: National Grocers Convention 2/4/92 [OA 7567] Stack: Row: Section: Shelf: Position: G 26 22 2 7 Photo Copy Preservation 703-437-5300 Tom Wenning ton Zaucha 8922-124-E0L Patty Ottenstein January 31, 1992 MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT THROUGH: DAVID DEMAREST TONY SNOW FROM: JOSEPH P. DUGGAN SUBJECT: NATIONAL GROCERS CONVENTION I. SUMMARY On Tuesday, February 4, at 11:00 a.m., you will address 4,000 members of the National Grocers Association in Orlando, Florida. The members are mostly family-owned independent supermarket owners. II. DISCUSSION The remarks (14 minutes, on teleprompter) repeat highlights from the State of the Union. Regarding the opening jokes: These are inside jokes which all the conventioneers will get. The previous night's banquet really is called the "Asparagus Club." Also, the finals of the grocery bagging contest occur just after your speech. The question refers to how check-out clerks now ask customers what kind of bags they want: "Paper or plastic?" (Duggan/Simon) January 31, 1992 Draft Five PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS: NATIONAL GROCERS ASSOCIATION ORLANDO, FLORIDA TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 4, 1992 11:00 a.m. Thank you also, Bill Confer, Thank you, Tom [Zaucha, NGA's president], ^ It's a great your pleasure to be here. ( (I originally had planned to be at your chairmen dinner last night, but when I found out it was called the "Asparagus Club Banquet," \ I thought I better not take a chance. That comes dangerously close to being broccoli. III )) ((You all know of my love for sports, and this being an election year, my competitive juices are flowing more than ever. So today, I'm making an announcement that many of you have been expecting for a long time. \ I'm officially declaring my entry \\ into your "Best Bagger" contest. 1111 Just one question: paper or plastic? ) ) I'll always remember the warm reception the NGA gave me when I addressed your 1985 convention in New Orleans. You gave me a good education about your industry then, and I remember it still. A typical NGA member is a family-run business. \ Many of you carry on legacies built through the vision and sacrifice of a grandmother or grandfather, perhaps an immigrant to this country. You work on the thinnest of profit margins. You challenge one another with bracing competition that benefits our consumers like no others in the world. And today as always, your success as community grocers depends not just on the bottom line but on the old-fashioned virtues of being a good neighbor. 2 Since I met you last in 1985, the world has changed. \ We won the Cold War. \ We led a coalition in the Gulf to crush Saddam Hussein's aggression in Kuwait. We've created a world with the prospects of unprecedented prosperity and peace. \ But we've also run into some hard times. Our economy has slowed down, and we must get it fired up again. \ The professional pessimists tell us America has become weak and disabled -- that our economy has fallen and it can't get up. \ Well, that's just plain bunk. \ Day by day and step by step, we'll get ourselves moving -- and we'll do it as Americans always have: We'll combine our common sense, our work ethic, and our determination with pro-growth policies. With these, we'll carry the entire world into the Next American Century. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to understand how. You just stick with the basics. \ I proposed a common-sense action plan last week in my State of the Union address. It gets investment going, because you can't build new businesses and create jobs without new investment. It strengthens the industries that historically have led us into recoveries -- especially real-estate. It hacks away obstacles to growth -- burdensome regulations, high taxes, nuisance lawsuits. It cuts the federal deficit by holding back spending. You and I know that government is far too big and spends too much. 11 How free are we, really, when the federal government gobbles up 25 percent of our GNP? \ I'm demanding that Congress get serious about this. \ I've listed 3 246 wasteful programs that I want cut this year -- and I want the line-item veto so I can enforce real spending discipline. 11 We've got to get Washington back to common sense. \ To do that, I need your help -- and I know you can deliver. You know your neighbors, and they know you. 11 I've asked Congress to enact some laws that will create jobs by getting our economy growing again -- and I've given Congress a deadline: March 20. Circle that Friday on your calendar. 11 I have. 11 Remember this deadline. Congress needs to take a few simple steps to create good American jobs -- now. Here's what I want by the deadline: \ First, incentives to make productive investments: These involve a 15-percent investment tax allowance; needed changes to the alternative minimum tax; and a permanent research and development tax credit. These will encourage business to invest in equipment and become more productive. Second, incentives to build and buy real-estate: A change in passive-loss rules for active real-estate developers; penalty- free withdrawals from IRAs for first-time homebuyers, and a $5,000 tax credit for the purchase of that first home. Third, incentives to succeed: Cut the capital gains tax. This tax hurts anyone who has made a sensible investment -- in a home, a business, or a farm. None of our key economic competitors taxes gains at high rates -- Japan's effective rate comes to about 1 percent; Germany doesn't tax long-term capital gains at all. Let's stop penalizing savings and investment. 4 Let's stop punishing excellence. Lower capital gains taxes mean more investment -- and more investment means more jobs. So let's cut the capital gains tax -- now. Three measures, three pieces of common sense; three things Congress should do by March 20. \ I'm counting on your help. In the meantime, I've initiated some reforms that will get the economy moving -- without having to wait for Congress to act. I've imposed a 90-day freeze on federal regulations that could hinder economic growth. During that period, all departments and agencies will review regulations, old and new -- to stop the ones that will hurt growth and speed up those that will help growth. I see from your convention schedule that you have a workshop entitled: "The Regulators Are Back." \ No wonder: You can't get through a day without having to worry about what some regulator is going to do to you through some thoughtless regulation. Regulations may have stated aims as wholesome as Mom and apple pie. \ But you know better than anyone that when regulators carry regulation too far, there won't be any apple pie for Mom to buy. I ran a council on deregulation for eight years, as vice president. And I'm here to assure you: We have not lost the spirit of deregulation. \\ I want you to be able to spend your time working on what you can do for your customers -- rather than fretting about what some regulator might do to you. I'm also fighting hard against this epidemic of lawsuits. If we were as good at rewarding success as we are at suing each other, we'd be 5 a century ahead of the rest of the world. America's love affair with the lawsuit must stop. The greatest lesson of our times is this: Government micromanagement doesn't work. \ After seventy years of tragic failure, the leaders in Moscow finally recognize that total government regulation produces only one thing: total failure. Now, Russians want to try something different -- like grocery stores with groceries on the shelves. I find it a bitter irony that some in Congress still favor government coercion and control over freedom and competition. It's as though we'd entered a time warp. \ When I hear the shrill sounds of "soak the rich" demagoguery -- when I hear politicians demand more taxes, regulations, government coercion and control, I wonder: Where have these people been? Isn't it ironic -- at the exact moment the world is turning to our values of more economic freedom and competition -- some in Congress want to go the opposite way. Here's an example of the trouble brewing in Congress: the so-called FDA enforcement bill. I'm sure those of you who sell your own private-label groceries aren't exactly thrilled by the prospect of more legal and accounting and paperwork burdens. But that's just what some in Congress want to do. Well, let me tell you in no uncertain terms: The time for this type of over-regulation is over. And from now on, if Congress passes a mandate for state and local governments, it shouldn't pass the buck. Congress should pay for the mandates it imposes, without heaping on new taxes. 6 Again, Congress can help get the economy moving if it will just do the right thing. Congresswoman Schroeder of Colorado said last week that maybe Congress should just pass my plan "as it is, and put it on [my] desk." And I agree exactly. If anyone thinks my program is controversial, let me take the heat. I know my program will get the economy moving again. March 20 is not a moment too soon to enact my short-term program. But we also need to look to longer horizons. I proposed a long-term plan in my State of the Union address. Let me give you some highlights: First, let's create more American jobs by opening up and expanding markets all over the world. A new GATT agreement will make the world trading system come to grips with the damaging tariffs and export subsidies in agriculture. And by tearing down economic barriers with Mexico and Canada, a new North American Free Trade Agreement can lift us to new heights of prosperity. Second, let free choice and free markets reform our health care system. This week I'll ask for a new credit to help those without health insurance to buy such coverage. My plan will assure that American workers will have access to basic health insurance even if they change jobs or develop serious health problems. We can't improve health care by threatening the health of job-intensive businesses. The last thing we want is for companies to cut health costs by cutting workers. I'm wholeheartedly opposed -- as I know you are -- to schemes that costs jobs by mandating benefits an employer must pay. 7 Third, let's strengthen the family --- the cornerstone of the American dream. Let's ease the burden of child-rearing. The personal tax exemption has not kept up with inflation. I'm asking Congress immediately to increase the exemption for each child by $500. It's a significant move in the right direction - - and for our kids' sake, we mustn't do less. Look at my economic proposals and you will find simple, plain solutions to our problems. Some may complain that they lack the flash of an expensive new program. But I'm not seeking spending for spending's sake. I want results. My plan is sound and it will work. If you hear people in Congress gripe that they can't get the job done by March 20, remind them: We won the Gulf War in 44 days. Surely Congress can pass my urgent domestic program in 52 days. Remember, Congress can act with lightning speed when it wants to. So: Accept no excuses. Accept no delays. And accept no substitutes. You've already taken the first step by voting to endorsemmy plan. I appreciate But, Please don't leave this message behind when you leave this confidence. your note of convention hall. Take it home to your families. Take it home to your customers -- to your neighbors. From February 8 till February 17, your congressmen will be home for the President's Day recess. That's a great time for you to go to their hometown offices and tell them to meet the deadline and pass my plan. With effort like this, I know we'll get their attention -- and we'll get America moving again. Thank you. May God bless you and the United States of America. "[There's] a temptation to just report it [the President's plan] as it is, put it on his desk, look at our clocks, and say, 'OK, the recovery clock is running. Let's let you have it your way. " Congresswoman Pat Schroeder Fox Morning News January 30, 1992 SENT BY:Office of Admin. ; 2- 3-92 :12:39PM : OA Publishing- 2024562820:# 9 TAB H ORLANDO, FLORIDA Orange County/Civic Center Address National Grocers Association Dais Diagram Tuesday, February 4, 1992 123 4 5678 Podium Teleprompter Audience 1, Robert Hand, Vice Chairman - NGA 2. Tom Zaucha, President - NGA 3. THE PRESIDENT 4. William Confer, Chairman of the Board of Directors - NGA 5. Kennech Techau, Immediate Past Chairman - NGA 6. Patrick Quinn, Executive Committee - NGA 7. Jerome Yaguda, Secretary/Treasurer NGA 8. Lee Schear, Executive Committee - NGA KEY: THE PRESIDENT DAY, JANUARY 30, 1992 The Washington Times MONEY INESS NDUP Economy's fligh noke get in their ads? to freedom? that accept cigarette advertisements articles about the hazards of smoking, a Plan wins eaks, market responds - Wall Street investors, uninspired by economic package and worried that praise - as rest-rate cuts are in the offing, sent stocks yesterday. The Dow Jones industrial aver- 47.18 points at 3,224.96, its biggest fall 120.31 points on Nov. 15. The blue chip in- a first step a record 3,272.14 on Tuesday. Losers out- 1,043 to 647 on active volume of 249 mil- the New York Stock Exchange. By Anne Veigle THE WASHINGTON TIMES headway President Bush's rousing call to "set - R.H. Macy & Co. Inc. yesterday got the economy free" likely to help con- $60 million in emergency financing to let sumers feel better about their economic retailer maintain normal operations dur- future, but most business groups said the court proceedings. Suppliers said yes- president's new growth plan is a good will resume shipping merchandise now that first step. can pay them. The growth package, which was pre- sented to Congress yesterday, contained Steel to cut 6,500 jobs a mix of both new and old proposals aimed at giving a short-term boost to the Steel Corp. yesterday reported losses economy and preserving growth over the voted to omit its 10-cent quarterly divi- long term. plans to cut 6,500 jobs by closing plants, Business groups generally praised the Sparrows Point plant in Baltimore. assortment of tax cuts and spending re- ductions because they are not expected formula omits profits to increase the federal deficit. In addi- tion, some of the short-term proposals GTON, Del. - Du Pont Co. reported a $240 could put more money into consumers' h-quarter loss yesterday, saying it was pockets in the next year. red by the cost of a corporate re- The president's growth package also structuring and a prod- won some faint praise from Federal Re- PONT uct recall. Du Pont, the serve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who nation's largest chem- appeared yesterday before the Senate ical concern, said the Banking Committee. The committee is loss compared with net considering Mr. Greenspan's nomination million a year earlier. For the year, Du for another four-year appointment and is $1.4 billion, down almost 40 percent from likely to approve it. Mr. Greenspan said he did not think a fiscal stimulus package was necessary, on approach but the president's plan would not cause any harm. He said the president's pro- plan to save his privately held Trans posal was not "major," and would not cre- by filing a "pre-packaged" Chapter 11 ate long-term problems in the economy. could come as early as today, sources said. The economy will pick up on its own announced last year, TWA creditors "independently of what other fiscal pol- a stake in a debt-free company. icy moves the Congress chooses to make," Mr. Greenspan said. counterattacks "My only concern about fiscal policy Source Perrier SA yesterday launched a moves is that it is very easy to overdo them, and I think we have sufficient ex- against Nestle SA's $2.5 billion hostile accusing the Swiss food giant of conspir- perience of overloading the system, which suggests to me|that we have to be of business. The world's largest quite careful," he said. company asked French antitrust reg- Some economists were disappointed Photo by Stepher the offer made Jan. 20 by Nestle and with the president's plan, saying it fell far Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan says the Bush plan conglomerate Cie de Suez. short of the long-awaited economic lead- ership Mr. Bush had been promising in HAVE TONIC wing at Boeing the weeks leading up to the State of the Some of President Bush's proposals to speed an economic re - The Boeing Co. yesterday reported a Union speech. Some economists were lower the amount of money the government receives in taxes increase in fourth-quarter earnings, which particularly critical of the growth plan's some of the economic proposals the president made and thei by strong commercial jet sales and a limited assistance for middle-income on the 1993 federal budget. In billions of dollars. taxpayers. profit in its defense business. For the quar- Proposal '92 record profits of $403 million on sales "There's a huge gap between public '9 confidence and economic reality," said Adopt a new equipment investment tax allowance 6.1 Raymond A. Worseck, chief economist Repeal the luxury tax on airplanes and boats with A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc. in St. and eliminate the diesel fuel exemption cause dividend cut Louis. "From my vantage point the whole Permit deduction of interest on college student loans 0.1 - Westinghouse Electric Corp. cut point is how to get people to be more Establish flexible individual retirement accounts 0.1 lividend almost in half yesterday from 35 confident. When you examine the propos- als, they are very anemic." Walve penalty for withdrawals from IRAs and announced plans to sell $500 million for education and medical, expenses preferred stock. see IMPACT. page C10 Provide a tax credit to first-time homebuyers 0.2 Seoul 36/20sh 38/22pc 40/22sn Stockholm 44/30c 40/32c 43/28c 5.07 Sydney 84/70pc northern Minnesota, 4 3.76 84/70pc 84/68pc 3.5 44 western New York and 55 in southern Forecast for 2.03 2.78 Taipei 64/52pc 62/52pc 64/52pc Today bring 1.44 2.03 will 2 1.27 Tokyo 47/36pc 45/30c a 45/27s Maryland. Light snow is likely in Maine tonight; Noon today 0.74 mixture of clouds and sunshine with a very Toronto 37/28sf 32/19sf 23/16pc otherwise, tonight will be partly cloudy. Lows 5 0 mild afternoon in the western Dakotas and in northern Maine to 37 in southern Maryland. M J. J A S 0 N D J Vienna 35/20pc 35/22c 37/24pc Warsaw 36/18c 32/16c 34/22pc IMPACT chases. "This is the shot in the arm the economy needs to get back on its A MATTER OF ASSUMPTIONS KOONS From page C1 feet," said Robert "Jay" Buchert, the The administration is more optimistic about the economy and a declining budget deficit provided President "What we really need to do to get newly elected president of the Na- Bush's proposals are adopted than the Congressional Budget Office. The CBO foresees a lower gross From page C1 the economy going is to drastically tional Association of Home domestic product and higher budget deficit. owed $998,000, and Dominion Bank, shake up public confidence," he said. Builders. GDP The State of the Union speech failed The president's plan includes a 4.0% Federal budget deficit which is owed $729,000, also joined Annual percentage change $400 to do that, he said. $5,000 tax credit for first-time home in billions of dollars in the bankruptcy petition. Others unhappy with the Bush buyers and also would permit the Administration 3.6 Administration Dominion was named in a lawsuit growth plan included defense con- use of funds from a new type of Congressional 3.5 $352 Congressional filed last month that accused Mr. flexible individual retirement ac- Budget Office 350 Budget Office Koons of siphoning funds from trust tractors and businesses dependent count. The plan also would make it $327 on the military. Defense spending is accounts to prop up his struggling scheduled to be cut by $50 billion easier to issue mortgage revenue 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 auto empire. bonds so more money would be 3.0 300 over the next five years. In that action, Ford Motor Co. said available to first-time home buyers. 2.8 One of the firms hit hardest by 2.6 $268 $260 it wanted Mr. Koons to repay $1.5 those cuts is Falls Church-based "Assuming the tax stimulus pro- gram is enacted by March 20 as the 2.5 2.7 2.6 million that was missing from trust General Dynamics Corp., whose 250 accounts holding insurance funds. president proposed, housing starts 2.5 2.2 $227 Seawolf submarine program was $226 The carmaker accused Dominion limited to the one ship it is currently in 1992 will total 1.4 million, up 18 and another bank of allowing Mr. building. The company's Electric percent from the 1.185 million pro- 2.0 $199 200 $190 Koons to take funds out of the trust Boat Division said in a statement jected by NAHB without the tax $212 accounts, even though the banks' of- credit incentive," Mr. Buchert said. $194 yesterday. that it is "disappointed He expected the proposals to gener- 1.6 $178 ficials knew they had been set up to and very concerned" with the pro- 1.5 benefit Ford. bosed defense cuts, though the com- ate more than $20 billion in addi- '92 '93 '94 150 '95 '96 '97 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 The dealerships Mr. Koons put in any knew the cuts were expected. tional economic activity." The one bell-ringer proposal that Chart by Greg Groesch The Washington Times bankruptcy were: JKJ Chevrolet Martin Marietta Corp. officials Sterling; Saturn of Sterling Inc.; won universal acclaim from busi- aid they are ready for the defense search with the Hudson Institute in month moratorium on new reg- U.S. Chamber of Commerce. "He's Koons Chrysler-Plymouth; JKJ nesses was the president's call for a a spokesman for the Bethesda Indianapolis. "It's stronger than any- ulations- the U.S. Chamber of Com- taking a sensible approach." Buick; Brandnewco. Inc.; JKJ capital gains tax reduction. The said yesterday. Martin Marietta thing he's proposed before." rates would be 15 percent for asssets merce especially has been calling The administration's proposals Chrsyler Plymouth; and JKJ Glebe about 75 percent of its business "The message Bush gave was cut held one year, 30 percent on assets for a halt in new regulations for aimed at the middle-income tax- Inc. the military. taxes, freeze regulations and freeze held two to three years and 45 per- more than a year. payer include an increase in the per- Stephen Goldstein contributed On the other hand, real estate in- the budget," said Lawrence A. Kud- cent on assets held three or more "It may not be bold enough or sonal exemption of $500 per child, to this report. stry officials were enthusiastic low, chief economist with Bear strong enough for many people, but years. tax deductibility of student loans, the president's plan, which Stearns Co. Inc., an investment "I think that's the most significant I think most businesspeople under- more flexible rules on individual re- tains a number of measures banking house in New York. piece in the package," said Alan stand the president's approach is in tirement accounts, and a health care at stimulating house pur- Business groups also welcomed Reynolds, director of economic re- the right direction," said William reform package that the president Take stock UNITE the administration's call for a three- STATES MacReynolds, economist with the will unveil next month. in America. SONIALS BUNDS DP of recent recoveries. helped boost third-quarter GDP by a The economy sank into recession 1.8 percent annual rate. ADVERTISEMENT in July 1990 and, after declining at a page C1 "There is no sign that consumers 3.9 percent annual rate in the fourth are ready to forge ahead," observed quarter and 2.5 percent in the first Kermit Baker of Cahners Econom- hspan told Congress yesterday three months of 1991, showed signs ics in Newton, Mass. He cited the entral bank is beginning to see Experts reveal why local homeowners of a weak revival. very subtle signs that the ero- latest survey by the widely re- But it stalled again in late sum- the economy is beginning to spected Conference Board, a busi- mer, prompting concerns it might be ze." ness research group, showing con- should fix "problem basements" now headed for the fifth double-dip re- also suggested that "this econ- sumer confidence continuing to cession since World War II. erode in January. Thanks to the unusually dry win- According to Mr. Wilson, the boost profits by overpricing their job move out of this extreme In early December, the GDP re- with monetary policy Exports soared at a 15.4 percent ter in the Washington Area, water- smartest homeowners are seizing the or cutting corners in the work. placed the gross national product as rate in the October-December quar- proofing contractors-even the very opportunity and having their base- Mr and without the huge tax cuts the nation's broadest measure of ter, but many economists expressed best- remain more flexible in their Bush and many congress- economic health. The difference is proposing. concern this source of strength prices than that the GDP measures output would dissipate as with the growth package within the United States impact of lower interest of a visit to the United States, Yelt- sin said Russia is striving for "min- imum sufficiency" in nuclear and conventional weapons. He wel- Skeptical of comed arms control proposals made by President Bush in his State of the Union address just hours earlier Bush Plan and suggested that Moscow could join Washington in creating and jointly operating a global defense Some Industries system against nuclear attack in place of the Strategic Defense Ini- Welcome Incentives tiative. Soviet political commentators 1-29-92 said Yeltsin's proposals appeared By Jerry Knight and Kirstin Downey designed in part to project a states- Washington Post Staff Writers manlike image prior to a two-day trip to the United States, during President Bush has promised that which he will address the U.N. Se- the initiatives he detailed in his curity Council. Yeltsin went out of budget this week will "lift this nation his way to depict Russia, the largest out of hard times inch by inch," but and most powerful member of the economists interviewed yesterday new Commonwealth of Independent said that with the economy advanc- States, as the rightful successor to ing just one inch at a time, there will the defunct Soviet Union in the mil- be no quick return to prosperity. itary field. The White House plan is to steadi- The Russian leader said he would ly dribble sand on the scales until the propose deep reductions in strate- economy returns to balance rather gic offensive weapons when he than to toss out weighty new pro- meets with Bush at Camp David on grams that might risk tilting the sys- Budget Director Richard G. Darman explains spending plan at new Saturday. Under his proposal, each tem. side would be left with only 2,000 That approach satisfies many to, 2,500 strategic nuclear weap- economists who believe the nation is ons-roughly 20 percent of the gradually growing out of the reces- present Soviet strategic arsenal. sion and who fear that new efforts to Like Bush, the 60-year-old Rus- give the system a bigger jolt might Speech Praised for S sian leader stressed that his arms reignite inflation. control initiatives could produce The president has proposed "a Democrats Who Voted for Bush in 19 tangible material benefits for a pop- nice mix of sound policies," said ulation preoccupied with domestic economist Jerry Jasinowski, presi- economic troubles. He said re- dent of the National Association of now sources saved from cutting arma- Manufacturers. But the limited By David S. Broder for Washington Post Staff Writer ments would be channeled to "ci- scope of the programs makes it clear abo vilian needs" and to easing the tran- that the administration's main strat- TIMONIUM, Md.-Before President Bush be- me sition to a market economy from egy for economic revival is a contin- gan his State of the Union address Tuesday night, Uni the communist system of central ued reliance on lower interest rates the 11 men and women gathered here-all of them him planning. engineered by the Federal Reserve, Democrats who had backed Bush in 1988-said in H he added. See YELTSIN, A18, Col. 3 urgent tones that they hoped he would speak to wo "He has avoided the problem of their concerns about the recession and unemploy- of Bush and Yeltsin add impetus going forward with extreme pro- ment, imports, education, health care and homeless- tho to nuclear cutbacks. Page A18 grams that would raise long-term in- ness. the terest rates," Jasinowski said. "Ex- When he had finished, most of them said he two treme" in this sense would be a hadn't really done that-or done it as well as they tha much bigger package of tax cuts that had hoped. But they liked the speech and the man aff could give a big boost to consumer who gave it because he was "real positive," "confi- spending, but also send prices sharp- dent," "very strong." for ly upward. They accepted and endorsed his view that he was no But the benefits of each one of the trying to do his part in meeting domestic needs and dozens of tax, spending and econom- ic policy changes proposed by the White House are so difficult to meas- ure that even those who support the president's approach worry that they may not add up to enough to ADDITIONAL BUDGE achieve either the political or eco- nomic goals that are desired. Bush administration officials The White House "If it doesn't work economically, yesterday outlined their vision again recommended in it's not going to work politically," of a new, post-Cold War mil- in the budget for the warned Fabian Linden, chief econo- itary. The administration pro- Endowment for the mist for the Conference Board, a gram would include sharply icized in past years f business organization that regularly reduced purchases of advanced port of controversia monitors consumer confidence. The weapons, but there would be while increasing b board's latest survey, released the no personnel cuts beyond the quests for other arts day of the president's speech, previously announced plans to including the Smiths BORIS YELTSIN showed consumer confidence at its shrink the armed forces by 25 tution and National E 600 missiles taken off alert See ECONOMISTS, A6, Col. 1 percent. Page A10 for the Humanities. Md.'s Doomsday Option INSIDE Bearing It's New Taxes or Schaefer's Worst-Case Cuts Israeli Elections Accuser From Israel's two major parties agreed tentatively to hold By Richard Tapscott tinue severely abbreviated functions parliamentary elections June Washington Post Staff Writer with federal funds and fees. 23 to resolve a crisis caused By Marc Fisl Schaefer's self-proclaimed dooms- by the withdrawal of two Washington Post Foreig ANNAPOLIS, Jan. 29-Mary- day option appears certain to add to small parties from Prime STUTTGART, Ge land Gov. William Donald Schaefer the pressure in an already tense at- Minister Shamir's coalition. 29-They stood four has drafted a budget that eliminates mosphere at the Statehouse, where WORLD, Page A16 separated now only state-funded public assistance and leaders have been unable to fashion a two men stiffened by a many housing programs and ends consensus for either tax increases or Missiles to Sausages a horseshoe of white H all state tax contributions to the major budget cuts. A Ukrainian factory that turned to Germany af 1.8 percent and 1.4 percent rates in drop -4 1991 1992 1993 the two previous quarters. in A 1989 1990 1991 that Gross domestic product 0.2% 2.2% 3.0% The impact of the recession was seen more clearly in the fact that 4th Qtr.-1991 cent Consumer inflation 3.0% 3.1% 3.3% GDP for last year was down 0.7 per- Consumer spending -1.1% tee t 6.9% 6.8% 6.4% cent from the 1990 level. It was the Durable goods spending -5.8% lows Unemployment first annual decline since a 2.2 per- Nondurable goods spending -4.9% from Services spending +2.3% NOTE: 1991 figures are actual. Unemployment figures are fourth quarter rates. cent drop in 1982. up fr SOURCES: Commerce Department; KRT Graphics TI Most forecasters expect another THE WASHINGTON POST four weak showing in the current Janu- ary-March period, followed by at spen annu Many Economists Skeptical of the Federal Reserve, said he also least a modest acceleration in eco- expects a rebound later this year build nomic growth. The Bush administra- even without further cuts in interest tion, for example, yesterday said it rates, tax cuts or spending increases Of Bush Plan for Recovery expects real GDP to grow 2.2 per- cent over the course of 1992, up by the government. from the scant 0.2 percent increase Greenspan cautioned, however, last year. that some of the factors, such as high ECONOMISTS, From A1 shot won't be anywhere close to big Michael J. Boskin, chairman of the debt burdens of businesses and house- enough to make the payments on a lowest level in a decade, and this pes- Council of Economic Advisers, said holds, that caused the economic re- new car. A trip to McDonald's is what the "very flat, sluggish position the covery to falter last fall have no pre- simism has been a heavy drag on the most families can expect from the cut economy, offsetting thus far the lower economy's been in since the late cedent in recent U.S. economic interest rates offered by the Fed. in federal income tax withholding or- summer will continue in the history and make predictions highly dered by Treasury Secretary Nicholas early part of 1992." If President uncertain. Linden, generally supportive of the F. Brady. administration plan, said, "The in- Bush's various new proposals to "I would expect the economy to stincts are perfectly fine: to get more A typical family of four with one stimulate the economy are quickly quicken its pace," the Fed chairman bucks into the hands of the guy who is wage-earner bringing in $700 a week adopted, "people will notice a de- said, "but I am spending a lot more going to run down to his local retailer will find an extra $6.60 a week in the monstrably higher rate of growth" time watching [the economy] than and buy something." But the impact of paycheck as a result of the withholding by the middle of the year, he said. forecasting." many of the president's proposals will change, and a single person making Alan Greenspan, testifying at a Many private economists think be so minimal "that you'll need a mag- $25,000 a year would get an extra Senate Banking Committee confir- the economy could do better this nifying glass to find it," he said. $15 a month, administration officials mation hearing on his nomination to year than the administration fore- Linden noted that even the adminis- calculated. a second four-year term as chairman cast. One, William Melton, chief tration's biggest economic incentive Added together nationwide, howev- for consumers-a proposed $5,000 er, these small amount total $25 bil- tax credit for first-time home buy- lion a year in additional cash and most ers-"as a contribution to buying a of it will flow directly into the econo- house is a less than imposing sum." my. "If people get an extra $5 in their The one big fix in the administration pocket, they'll spend it," said former package is aimed at the housing indus- Internal Revenue Service director try, which last year saw construction Sheldon Cohen, now a Washington tax of new homes and apartments fall to lawyer. the lowest level since 1946. Kent Col- That extra spending money is not ton, executive vice president of the the result of a tax cut, but simply of re- National Association of Home Build- ducing withholding rates to put into ers, predicted the package will result people's paychecks today the refund in 250,000 additional housing starts, they would ordinarily receive next 415,000 more jobs and $20 billion in spring. additional economic benefits when Lots of people would rather not buyers go shopping for furniture, have that happen, Cohen warned. paint, lawn mowers and everything "Most people still want to be over else a new house needs. withheld," even if it means a little less The home builders presented Bush money to spend today. with a wish list of incentives and got virtually every one of them-the first- "If they succeed [in stimulating the time buyers tax credit, penalty-free economy by reducing withholding] withdrawals from individual retire- they will have lots of unhappy Ameri- ment accounts for first-time home cans on their hands," he predicted, be- cause the reduction in withholding will inevitably mean some people will not "If it doesn work have enough money taken out of their checks to cover the taxes due. economically, it Some experts are skeptical that some of the proposed tax law changes not going to work meant to stimulate the economy will work at all or that they will work as politically." well as predicted. "It's quite possible they will have - Fabian Linden, economist some effect. The real question is what's the magnitude," said Randall Weiss, director of tax economics for buyers, restoration of special invest- Deloitte & Touche, another big ac- ment loss deductions for real estate in- counting firm. "Compared to lower in- dustry professionals, tax deductions terest rates, these things are relative- for losses on sales of homes and an ex- ly small." tension of low-income housing credits. Because of the inch-by-inch ap- Those incentives will encourage po- proach the White House is pursuing, tential home buyers to buy now rather the individual impact of any one of the than wait, said Steve Montgomery, na- proposed tax law changes will be very tional director of real estate tax servic- minor, said Eugene Steurele, a former es for accounting firm Ernst & Young. Treasury Department tax expert now "It will stimulate an earlier purchase at the Urban Institute in Washington. decision than would otherwise have Many of the changes represent a re- occurred," he said. treat from the tax reforms of 1986, The administration plan was also which lowered overall income tax welcomed by another hard-hit indus- rates by doing away with hundreds of try: the Detroit automakers. "People specific tax advantages for certain in- have been scared. They've put off buy- vestments. But the tax write-offs are ing high-ticket items like cars and so small, they barely matter, Steurele homes that mean jobs," said Chrysler said. "Even the investment credit- Corp. Chairman Lee A. lacocca. "The which I happen to believe is a bad president's proposal may be just the idea-is a pretty trivial credit," he shot in the arm this economy needs." said. "It's a movement backward, but Orig. SALE For most families, however, the without a lot of meat there." Brightener-added blue fox jackets Fu with dyed shadow fox trim $1400 $599 m fo Data Show U.S. Approved Dyed ranch mink jackets $2000 $799 Fu $60 Million in Sales to Iran Full-length, brightener-added blue fox coats $2100 $899 D Associated Press The procedure calls for the Com- Full-length, natural or na The Bush administration approved merce Department to evaluate ex- $60 million in high tech sales to Iran port applications by getting expert dyed mink coats $3000 $1249 Special Section on Redskins' Super Bowl Weather Today: Mostly sunny, mild. High 50. Low 34. Wind 6-12 mph. Thursday: Partly sunny, mild. High 54. Wind 8-16 mph. Yesterday: Temp. range: 32-48. AQI: 50. Details on Page D2. The Washingto 15TH YEAR No. 55 WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 29, 1992 Bush Tells Nation Recession Tax Plan Calls for Rebate This Year, Array of Cuts By Steven Mufson and Eric Pianin By the administration's own esti- Washington Post Staff Writers mates, those proposals would cost the government an additional $24.6 The Bush administration is plan- billion over five years, an amount ning to give Americans their 1993 that would be covered by other un- tax rebates in 1992 by changing the Internal Revenue Service withhold- specified savings. Under current law, the proposed tax benefits will ing tables and taking less out of the require at least $5.2 billion of offset- average weekly paycheck. ting spending cuts in the current The centerpiece of the president's election year package, announced in year if enacted by Congress, and us- his State of the Union address last ing revenue estimates of congres- night, gives the average taxpayer sional economists even bigger off- sets would be needed. about an extra dollar a day this year, a measure the administration hopes But the president said little about will stimulate the sluggish economy. specific spending cuts except to pro- But it will reduce next year's tax re- pose a freeze in government hiring funds by an average of $345 for ev- that administration officials said ery taxpayer, administration officials would slice the number of govern- estimated. ment employees by 4 percent. BY RAY LUSTIG-THE WASHIN In addition, the administration is See ECONOMY, A12, Col. 1 In third State of Union address, Bush says, "We can defeat hard times tog proposing a host of tax cuts reported earlier aimed at quickly putting mon- ey in the hands of Americans, spur- ring corporate investment and re- suscitating the moribund real estate A Declaration of Political War on th business. The measures include a $500-per- child increase in the personal ex- By Ann Devroy construct a case for political war on the Dem A: emption, expanded tax-free savings Washington Post Staff Writer ocrats. is by plans, additional tax incentives for corporations to increase invest- A year after he summoned the nation to In using the most memorable phrase of the addr battle in the Persian Gulf War, President Bush Bush presidency-his This will not stand" notw ments, a variety of tax breaks to re- vive the ailing real estate industry tried for a comeback last night. In the name of NEWS threat to Saddam-the president Bush and a cut in the maximum tax rate the capital gains tax cut, alternative minimum ANALYSIS put himself on a war footing and thor on capital gains to 15.6 percent for tax depreciation and modifying the "passive implied that anyone who wasn't acce assets held three years or more. loss" rules, the president borrowed the soar- with him was somehow unpatriotic. Democrats, Roge he said, will surely not turn their backs on the ing language, the deadlines and the steely it is Navy subs, largest Army pro- threats to Iraqi President Saddam Hussein to nation in this time of peril because "you're pa- issue grams face budget ax. Page A12 triots, and you want the best for your country." In Fairfax, Pay Bias Suit RALLY FOR CHAMPION REDSKINS Exacts a Personal Price Woman Fired After Filing Gains Settlement By Sandra Sugawara A Fairfax County Human Rights Washington Post Staff Writer Commission official assured her that Irene Lugenbeel stared at the sal- her job was safe because it's illegal ary data on the computer screen. to fire people in retaliation for filing discrimination claims. She had her proof. Two of her col- leagues who did the same work as So she filed a complaint against a she did at their Northern Virginia Corn. subsidiary of Iverson Technology of McI a whiligness to convert with Moscow, Bush IS also trying to Russian of its modern force of SS-18 and tiative largely involves the long- a "substantial portion of our stra- take the initiative away from Dem- "has been ven other missiles. range nuclear weapons linked tegic bombers primarily to conven- ocratic legislators and presidential U.S. official. Experts consider the MX missile most directly to the nation's secu- tional use" without seeking a sim- candidates who have called for a sub- of anonymity warhead, which carries a force rity and image. ilar commitment from Moscow. stantial "peace dividend." Chairman to present equal to 300,000 tons of TNT, the By focusing on eliminating those Each of these is a major conces- Joseph R. Biden Jr. (D-Del.) of the a planned most accurate and destructive missiles armed with multiple war- sion by the Defense Department, Senate Foreign Relations subcom- Camp David THE ECONOMY DEFENS Bush Offers Navy Proposals to Prog Break Slump By John and Bart ECONOMY, From A1 Washington Most of the president's economic The $50 billi package faces a tough election-year ings outlined in battle in the Democratic Congress, State of the Uni but the change in payroll deductions would include does not require legislation. The IRS lion-per-copy will send out changes in withholding and indefinitely tables today, and most firms will re- next-generation duce the amount of money taken out RH-66 Comanch of workers' paychecks by the end of the largest wea February, the administration said. the Army's buc In his address, Bush made only lawmakers brief fleeting reference to the federal defi- dent's plan. cit. But his measure on withholding Defense Secr would drive up that deficit by $25 Cheney told ke billion over a period of 12 months- closed-door brief adding $19 billion in the current fis- last night that fu cal year, which ends Oct. 1, and ets will reflect bringing the 1992 total up to $399 At president's speech, in front row from left, Vice President Quayle's wife Marilyn; daughter-in-law Margaret Bush; the developing weap billion, the Office of Management Rev. Billy Graham; Barbara Bush; daughter Dorothy Bush LeBlond; Fred McClure, White House congressional lobbyist. will stop short and Budget estimated. many cases. The The administration asserted that the administration to claim that low- The president wants to grant subsi- also call for shar the change-the single biggest item chrast said he believed the housing-' er- and middle-income earners will in the economic package-would not dies to first-time home buyers. Under related proposals could increase the missile programs benefit most and blunt Democratic break the budget agreement and did his plan, a first-time buyer who buys a duction of the B- number of housing units built in the criticism of proposals that benefit home after Feb. 1 would get a tax :not need to be offset by other tax in- United States in 1992 by 150,000 to at 20 planes, fiv the wealthy. credit of up to $2,500 and an addition- 175,000 units above the 1.15 million gress has author creases or spending cuts, adding Bush himself raised the issue of al credit of the same amount next than the 75 calle that it falls within the scope of exec- housing units built in the country in pitting one class against another, ac- utive action permissible under the year. A tax credit, unlike a deduction, ous Air Force pla 1991. Administration officials claimed cusing Congress of making the cut in budget agreement. reduces taxes dollar for dollar, SO this But Chenev als that the tax credit for first-time home capital gains taxes a class issue. The administration said that es- plan would reduce the buyer's taxes buyers alone would add a quarter of a the proposed bud "You kind of remind me of the old by $5,000 over two years. tain additional cut sentially the government is return- definition of the Puritan who million home buyers beyond what In addition, first-time buyers would yond the 25 per ing money that it is borrowing from would otherwise be expected. couldn't sleep at night worrying that 'taxpayers at no interest. But the re- be allowed to make a penalty-free cluded in the Pen somehow, someone, somewhere was Bush also proposed to make the in- withdrawal from their individual re- plans and would duction in payroll deductions would out having a good time." Bush said. terest deductible on student loans for tirement accounts (IRAs) if the mon- of costly proces mean that the government would He added that post-secondary education. those who ve ey were used for the down payment nearing the prodi have to borrow at regular rates in authored various so-called soak-the- Taxpayers would also be able to on their home. as the Air Force credit markets the $25 billion it is rich bills that are floating around this open new "flexible" individual retire- returning to taxpayers during the And finally, homeowners who sell F-22 fighter and chamber should be reminded of ment accounts that would allow them their houses at a loss would be al- Similarly, Chem next year. Taxpayers will bear the something: When they aim at the big to withdraw money for any reason, lowed to deduct those losses-some- that the budget cost of that borrowing. guy, they usually hit the little guy. such as home down payments, medi- thing they are not now allowed to do. completing nuclea Administration officials said that Democrats took up the gauntlet. cal costs or tuition. Contributions to too much money is withheld from Bush would also aid the real es- aircraft carrier E "Given the emphasis on capital gains the accounts would be taxed, but port News and the average American's paycheck tate industry further by easing re- and the paltry effort to help middle- earnings could be withdrawn tax-free strictions on tax deductions for loss- new carrier beg and that the average rebate has class people, you're going to have a after seven years. grown from $800 to more than es in the industry and by Cheney briefed battle now," said Rep. Thomas J. Bush's proposal on capital gains encouraging pension funds to invest the Pentagon's $1,000. Over 85 percent of Ameri- Downey (D-N.Y.), a senior member would cut the tax rate the longer in- cans would still get refunds every more money in real estate. for fiscal 1993. of the Ways and Means Committee. vestments are held. Bush would ex- spring, administration officials said, Real estate industry executives veiling today. and "Once you see the distributional ta- and spokesmen were jubilant about clude 45 percent of capital gains on details on the pre but the refunds would be smaller. bles on his proposal, it will be SO the recommendations. "I'm excited assets held longer than three years, to save $50 billion The average taxpayer-and there weighted in favor of the rich that it resulting in a top maximum rate of about the [housing] provisions," said over five years. are about 90 million taxpayers- will fall of its own weight." 15.6 percent for those assets. Assets would receive money in 1992 that Hal Ellis, chairman and chief execu- The proposals. Bush accused Democrats of being held less than one year would still be tive of San Francisco-based Grubb & far deeper cuts tl he or she would otherwise not get "demagogues" by attacking a cut in Ellis Real Estate. "If Congress em- fully taxed at rates of up to 28 per- thought possible a until 1993. For single individuals the the capital gains tax as a benefit for cent. still are not likely amount could be as low as $175 and braces them and passes them quickly, the rich, claiming that 60 percent of then it could have a very stimulative Other tax cuts would benefit busi- ous members of for two-income families the amount the people who would benefit have could come to more than $600, ad- effect on our economy. And when you nesses. Corporations could deduct an lawmakers have incomes under $50,000. But Bush additional 15 percent of the cost of a stimulate our housing industry, it im- the defense budget ministration officials said. neglected to say that the size of pacts a whole range of other indus- piece of equipment purchased after cent in recent The changes in the withholding their benefits from cuts in capital tries that supply materials for hous- Feb. 1. Varying depreciation rates the full benefits schedules would be phased out be- gains taxes are paltry compared with ing." currently allow companies to deduct savings would not tween $70,000 and $90,000 of in- the benefits received by wealthy come for individuals, because most Administration officials claimed anywhere from 10 percent to 50 per- decade, because Americans. that their entire economic package cent of the cost of equipment. budget authority, upper-income earners do not with- The administration's economic would stimulate the creation of half a tual outlays. hold extra money, officials said. The package also takes special aim at re- Staff writers Kirstin Downey and phasing out of changes also enables million new jobs. The result, accor viving the real estate sector. Albert B. Crenshaw contributed to would be a far sm Housing economist Michael Sumi- this report. idend" than might JOBS AT RISK In California, Anger and Resignation on the B-2 By Steven Pearlstein "It is unwise how much we have dropped portraying the B-2 as a gold-plated fiasco Washington Post Staff Writer our guard," said Largent. Yesterday, planes No. 5 through rather than the engineering marvel that in- PALMDALE, Calif., Jan. 28-In this high Yet for all their disappointment and even in various stages of assembly and. sh spires their pride. desert home of the B-2 "stealth" bomber, a anger with the decision to cap the B-2 pro- gress approve, a production run of More than 15,000 Californians are working gram at 20 airplanes, Northrop employees in- keep the lights on through 1998. handful of people who build it gathered tonight directly on the B-2 program, most of them for terviewed tonight in this Republican enclave Even before the president's spee to hear President Bush declare victory in the Northrop and Hughes Aircraft Co. in the Los Cold War, but left feeling like its casualties. were divided over whether they would hold workers seemed resigned to a sm Bush responsible at the polls in November. Angeles area. Northrop alone has 13,000 em- gram and grateful that, with a clear "The timing couldn't have been worse," ployees working on the plane, and a company "He betrayed us," said Visokey's husband of the B-2's fate after years of politic said Carol Visokey, a manufacturing planner spokesman said last night that as many as for Northrop Corp., the B-2's builder. "First Bill, who makes tooling for the B-2. "I proba- gling, they could get on with plann bly could never vote for him now. 1,500 workers would probably be laid off by lives. you had your auto workers, then construction year-end, most of them at the company's en- "If it comes to feeding a family, I'd cross Many B-2 workers are veteran workers and now aerospace. Hey, we're the gineering and design facility in Pico Rivera. middle class. We are the ones who are sup- party lines," warned C.J. Butler, a B-2 me- aerospace industry, which has domin chanic and mother of five. Nationally, 40,000 jobs are tied directly to area's economy for 30 years. They posed to pay the bills." the program, at major subcontractors such as But any number of B-2 employees agreed den the fortunes of the industry up Engineer Jorg Largent, who began work on Boeing Co. in Seattle, LTV Corp. in Dallas with 18-year Northrop employee Leon Robin- first with the Lockheed L-1011 con the B-2 nearly a decade ago when he couldn't and engine-maker General Electric Co. in Cin- son when he said the alternative to Bush may jetliner, then later with Rockwell even tell his wife about the super-secret pro- cinnati. be no better for the industry bomber, both of which were Services of Mead Data Central, Inc. PAGE 2 39TH STORY of Level 1 printed in FULL format. Copyright 1992 Investor's Business Daily, Inc. Investor's Business Daily January 30, 1992 SECTION: Bush's Budget Proposal; Pg. 7 LENGTH: 1157 words HEADLINE: Bush Plan To Aid Home Builders Could Hurt If Congress Delays It BYLINE: By Robert Corrigan, Investor's Daily President Bush had plenty of good news for home builders and the real estate industry Tuesday night. But some observers said yesterday that in the short term, the president's proposal could hinder home sales until Congress acts on it. ''There's no question that a 5,000 tax credit and the ability to pull money out of IRAs without penalties for first-time home buyers will have a very positive effect on the industry,' said Bruce Karatz, president and chief executive of Kaufman & Broad Homes Corp., the giant Los Angeles-based builder. ''But Congress has got to act on it in a speedy fashion to keep the momentum going,' he added. In his State of the Union address, Bush included five proposals to help real estate: * A $ 5,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers. Potential buyers who have not owned a home in the last three years would be eligible. The program would apply retroactively to either new or existing houses bought between Feb. 1, 1991, and Jan. 1, 1993. Half of the credit would be taken off 1992 taxes and half off 1993 taxes. Contrary to some predictions, Bush mentioned no income limit. * Permission to withdraw up to $ 10,000 from an Individual Retirement Account without penalty when it would be used to help purchase a new home. Under existing law, any withdrawals from an IRA before the age of 59 1/2 are subject to taxes immediately and are penalized by a 10% fee. * Deductions on losses from the sale of a principal residence. If a homeowner sold his home at a loss after Feb. 1, he could deduct the amount that exceeded 10% of his income. * Incentives to encourage real estate purchases by pension funds. Pension funds presently are restricted by ''prudent investment'' rules that confine them mostly to low-risk investments in securities. LEXIS'NEXIS'LEXIS'NEXIS Services of Mead Data Central, Inc. PAGE 3 Investor's Business Daily, January 30, 1992 * Reinstatement of ''passive loss'' tax breaks that were outlawed by the 1986 Tax Reform Act. Real estate developers would be able to apply their losses on real estate investments against their taxes on profits from other businesses. For most housing analysts, the first proposal - the tax credit for first- time home buyers - is the most significant one for the home building industry, home buyers and the economy as a whole. The National Association of Home Builders told Investor's Business Dailyyesterday that if passed by Congress, the tax credit could sharply increase housing starts this year. Before Tuesday, the NAHB had forecast that 1.185 million units would be built in 1992, the first increase in six years but still near last year's post-World War II low of 1.02 million units. In the wake of Bush's proposal, the NAHB sharply changed its forecast yesterday to 1.4 million starts for the year. David Seiders, chief economist at the NAHB, said the single-family home market will be positively affected, while the apartment market - already devastated by a credit crunch and other problems - will be hurt further. Under rgw NAHB's original 1.19-million-unit estimate, 200,000 units were to be in multifamily starts and 985,000 units in single-family construction. Though the new estimate accelerates the total to 1.4 million units, only 170,000 multifamily starts were predicted, while single-family construction was raised to 1.23 million units. 'There will clearly be some negative impact on multifamily housing because you're taking people who are or would be renters and moving them into homeownership,'' Seiders said. The NAHB estimates that about two million American households now renting are likely to be considering buying a house, based on Commerce Department statistics. Bush's tax credit incentive is aimed at that group. The tax credit would encourage about 300,000 of that number to buy a home, on top of those who were planning to buy anyway, said the NAHB. Of the nation's 95 million households, 34 million presently are renters, according to the government. Seiders added that while the tax credit would be good for the purchase of an existing home as well as a new home, the transaction would force the construction of a new home at some point down the road. Sales of existing homes typically account for 80% of all home sales, while new-home sales make up the balance. Home builder Karatz noted that a similar tax credit was attempted in 1975, with positive results. LEXIS'NEXIS'LEXIS'NEXIS Services of Mead Data Central, Inc. PAGE 4 Investor's Business Daily, January 30, 1992 He said that 1975's desultory 1.16 million starts figure jumped to 1.54 million units the following year with the help of a $ 2,000 tax credit for first-time buyers. Bush's $ 5,000 tax credit proposal also promises to put many unemployed builders back to work. The NAHB estimates that 415,000 construction jobs are likely to be created from the surge in purchases. Bush stated in his speech that he would like Congress to act on his package of proposals by March 20. But some housing analysts said the process could take months longer, raising fears that potential first-time home buyers attracted by the proposed tax credit will delay their purchases until Congress acts. The result could be a further delay in the rebound of the housing market, which has shown signs of life in the past few months. Bush said in his speech that he is counting on the housing industry to lead the country into recovery, as it has after every recession since the end of World War II. ''I'm very concerned about what could happen short-term. Sales could shut down for months,' said Todd Zimmerman of Zimmerman Associates, a Clinton, N.J.-based housing research firm. Seiders agreed that any dallying by Congress could hurt home builders' sales. ''If you were going to buy a house anyway, there is no reason why this delay should hold you up. If you are contemplating buying because of the tax credit, you certainly won't until it's a sure thing,'' he said. But Karatz said weakened home prices and record-low mortgage rates are likely to encourage a healthy amount of buying even if Congress doesn't act until summer. Bush's other real-estate-related proposals met with mixed reviews. Karatz said the IRA withdrawal plan could help thousands afford down payments on new homes. But Angelo Mozilo, president of the Mortgage Bankers Association, said in a statement yesterday that 'recent data indicate that only 10% of American renters, typically those in higher-income brackets, have IRA accounts. Help is desperately needed at the lower end.'' Housing analysts said the deductions for losses on the sale of principal residences are likely to help only a limited number of home buyers in areas where prices have declined significantly, such as the Northeast. The proposals concerning passive losses and incentives for pension funds will be welcomed by commercial real estate developers, but are unlikely to affect home builders, analysts said. LEXIS NEXIS'LEXIS'NEXIS Services of Mead Data Central, Inc. PAGE 5 64TH STORY of Level 1 printed in FULL format. Copyright 1992 The Chronicle Publishing Co. The San Francisco Chronicle JANUARY 30, 1992, THURSDAY, FINAL EDITION SECTION: NEWS; Pg. A8 LENGTH: 962 words HEADLINE: Bush's Economic Plan Wins Praise From Experts Analysts say proposals provide near-term relief, 1 BYLINE: Jonathan Marshall, Chronicle Economics Editor BODY: In the wake of Tuesday's State of the Union address, economists and budget analysts generally praised the emphasis of President Bush's latest proposals to limit election-year damage to the economy while stimulating long-term growth. Bush advanced an eclectic mix of measures to lift the gloom of recession from the economy and speed its future expansion. They include lowering the withholding on paychecks, slashing capital gains taxes, tax relief for middle-income families with children, tax credits to first-time homebuyers, more incentives for corporate research, development and investment and a re-examination of federal regulations that burden business. ' 'The grand design was pretty well put together,' said Christopher Varvares, a senior economist at Laurence H. Meyer & Associates, a consulting firm based in St. Louis. ''In the short term, his approach was to stimulate spending to lift demand. In the longer term, his proposals work to improve productivity through research-and-development tax credits, cutting the capital gains tax and reforming education.'' Rudolph Penner, an analyst at the Urban Institute in Washington and former director of the Congressional Budget Office, also detected a ' ' coherent philosophy'' of fiscal moderation underlying Bush's message. 'There was much more emphasis on constraining spending, more substantial cuts in defense than I expected,' Penner said. ''It's a traditional Republican approach to deficit reduction. Even with all the tax cuts, parallel cuts in spending, from farm subsidies to Medicare, would leave the deficit only a few billion dollars higher this fiscal year and decrease it slightly thereafter. 'VERY MODEST IN TOTAL' Despite the sheer number of proposals, Penner said, ''they are very modest in total. I personally think that's a very good thing, since most measures will hit at the wrong time, after the recovery comes. Penner added that Bush ' had no choice whatsoever politically'' but to back middle-class tax cuts in a difficult election year. ''This was a definite exercise in damage limitation, Penner said. ''The real danger is that this LEXIS'NEXIS'LEXIS'NEXIS Services of Mead Data Central, Inc. PAGE 6 (c) 1992 The San Francisco Chronicle, JANUARY 30, 1992 will become the first bid in a bidding war that leaves us much worse off. Whoever wins the war, almost no one expects Bush's program to emerge intact. In a response to the State of the Union address, House Speaker Thomas Foley, a Washington Democrat, railed against the proposed cut in the capital gains tax as another handout to the rich. Most economists agree that wealthy Americans, who have more money to invest, would benefit the most. Many economists also maintain, however, that such a tax cut would indirectly benefit average Americans by stimulating new investment. Varvares said he forecasts that a capital gains cut would add about 0.3 percent to the nation's annual output of goods and services. POLITICAL LINES The capital gains debate should help draw some clear political lines in 1992, said John Cogan, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and former deputy director of the White House budget office. ''Foley's whole speech was on redistributing the pie,'' Cogan said. ''Bush's whole emphasis was on increasing the size of the pie. People talk about the lack of choices in politics, but here is a wonderfully clear distinction on what government policy should emphasize. In another move to pick up the economy in the long term, Bush proposed revamping the alternative minimum tax on corporations, which now penalizes those taking large deductions for investment. Mark Bloomfield, president of the American Council on Capital Formation, said, ''We give him a B+ for addressing this hit on investment.'' In contrast, several of the president's short-term measures will have little effect on the economy, several experts said. Cutting taxes for the middle class, at the expense of inflating the budget deficit, ''doesn't really help since the middle class carries the burden of public debt,' said Murray Weidenbaum, head of the Center for the Study of American Business at Washington University in St. Louis. Similarly, said Cogan, ''if the cut in withholding has any effect, it will be very trivial'' because few people will ignore their tax obligations and go on a buying binge. INVESTMENT TAX ALLOWANCE The one-year investment tax allowance, which allows business a faster write-off on new equipment, may do more than any other proposal to fuel the recovery by reviving sluggish business spending this year, said Weidenbaum. But he and other supporters of investment incentives were more dubious about Bush's proposals to revive the real estate industry with more favorable tax laws. With the tremendous oversupply of commercial office buildings nationwide, ''you sure don't want to encourage any new building,'' Weidenbaum said. In the long run, the most significant element of Bush's package may be signaled by his 90-day moratorium on new federal regulations. Existing environmental laws alone cost the country $ 110 billion a year, according to LEXIS'NEXIS'LEXIS'NEXIS Services of Mead Data Central, Inc. PAGE 7 (c) 1992 The San Francisco Chronicle, JANUARY 30, 1992 the Environmental Protection Agency, and the new Clean Air Act will add $ 25 billion or more, said Weidenbaum. ''In In and of itself, the moratorium shouldn't have much effect,' said Cogan. But if it signals a change in the administration's basic approach to regulation, then over a long period of time, I would expect it to have a large effect on the economy's performance.' Any such fundamental change, however, would have to overcome intense congressional opposition. Foley, arguing that regulations protect people from pollution, deceptive advertising and unsafe food and medicine, said, ''This is not the way to create jobs or make American business prosperous.'' TYPE: RELATED STORY SUBJECT: US; PRESIDENT; FEDERAL BUDGET; PLANNING; REACTION; ECONOMY NAME: George Bush LEXIS'NEXIS'LEXIS NEXIS Services, of Mead Data Central, Inc. PAGE 1 DATE: FEBRUARY 2, 1992 CLIENT: LIBRARY: NEXIS FILE: MACLEH YOUR SEARCH REQUEST IS: KUDLOW AND DATE AFT 1/28/92 NUMBER OF STORIES FOUND WITH YOUR REQUEST THROUGH: LEVEL 1... 1 LEXIS'NEXIS'LEXIS'NEXIS Services. of Mead Data Central, Inc. PAGE 2 1ST STORY of Level 1 printed in 100 VAR KWIC format. Copyright (c) 1992 Educational Broadcasting and GWETA; The MacNeil/Lehrer NewsHour January 30, 1992, Thursday Transcript #4259 LENGTH: 9174 words HEADLINE: Recession Buster?; Welfare at Issue; Search & Recover BYLINE: In New York: ROBERT MAC NEIL; In Washington: JAMES LEHRER; GUESTS: MARTIN FELDSTEIN, Reagan Economic Adviser; ROBERT HEILBRONER, Economist; LAWRENCE KUDLOW, Reagan Economic Adviser; CHARLES SCHULTZE, Carter Economic Adviser; CORRESPONDENTS: PETER GRAUMANN; ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH BODY: somebody who now doesn't have a job. And what we're trying to do is the same thing you're trying to do, not just get cash in people's pockets through gifts, but get them jobs that are secure jobs for the long-term so they have not the small amount of money you referred to, but a respectable income that is secure. MR. MAC NEIL: Now, to evaluate the President's economic plan, we get the views of four economists. Martin Feldstein was President Reagan's leading economic adviser from 1982 to '84. He's currently a professor at Harvard and head of the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge. He joins us from public station WGBH in Boston. Charles Schultze is director of economic studies at the Brookings Institution in Washington. He was President Carter's chief economic adviser and President Johnson's budget director. Lawrence Kudlow was associate director for economics and planning in Reagan's first term. He's now senior managing director and chief economist at Bear Stearns and Company, a New York investment banking firm. And Robert Heilbroner is an author and professor of economics at the New School for Social Research in New York City. Martin Feldstein, starting with you, let's take it as President Bush did, the measures for the short-term first, and then we'll move on to the long-term in a moment. Has he done enough to get the economy -- enough in the short-term to get this economy out of the recession? MR. FELDSTEIN: I think, first of all, that the Federal Reserve's cut in interest rates in December are going to give a big boost to the economy, not this quarter, but as we get into the spring and early one does to promote spending right now helps. I mean, when you are in a bad way, and we are in a bad way, every penny is better than no penny. I only take a negative point of view because I think the situation is more serious than President Bush does. Let me say one word. President Bush is making a bet, and the bet is that there's enough momentum in the economy, enough vigor there, so that by feeding it, bandaiding it, patting it on the back, 50 to speak, the economy will get moving again. And my bet is, or rather my prediction is, my feeling is that there is not enough vigor there, that the bandaids and the patting on the back will help some, certainly better than nothing, but that you have to do something much more drastic. LEXIS'NEXIS'LEXIS NEXIS Services. of Mead Data Central, Inc. PAGE 3 (c) 1992 EBC & GWETA. All Rights Reserved, January 30, 1992 MR. MAC NEIL: Which bet is right, do you think, Larry Kudlow? MR. KUDLOW: Well, I think President Bush has pretty much got the story right. I mean, he's sending a very expansionary message for the first time in his Presidency. He's saying we're going to cut taxes rather than raise them, we're going to reduce regulations, rather than increase regulatory cost. And this whole emphasis was on growth. Prior State of the Unions, prior budgets from the Bush Administration, have been very austere and very restrictive. And I believe sent a punitive message which has really damaged public confidence. And, of course, in specific terms it's hurt business. Now, in terms of Bush's specific proposals, the two that stand out in my mind, No. 1, I think he's proposed a very sizeable reduction in the capital gains tax. It's a 45 percent drop from 28 percent to 15 percent. And I think this is going to have, if it gets through Congress, this is going to have a very stimulative impact. It's going to unlock a lot of new capital, which will be rechanneled into new investment. It will provide the kind of liquidity that small businesses and new businesses desperately need in this period of a banker's credit crunch in the absence of any credit out there whatsoever, and I think it's going to create a resurgence in new business start-ups, which is really a big job creator in the United States. And the other thing that stands out is the accelerated depreciation, which is also a capital cost reduction. I wish it had been permanent, rather than temporary. MR. MAC NEIL: Which means that businesses can in a fewer number of years write off a new piece of equipment? MR. KUDLOW: Well, that's right. In particular, they're going to get a 15 percent break for equipment that they purchased this coming year. And I might add, in the capital gains tax proposal, I noticed it's effective February 1st, and there's a window of opportunity, if you do it, if you take capital gains in the 11 months of 1992, you'll get the full exclusion and get your 15 percent rate. So these are good things. And I agree also that lower interest rates and lower inflation rates have set the stage for economic recovery. So with these added capital incentives, we have a decent chance of getting a respectable recovery, although there are parts of this bill that I do not like. MR. MAC NEIL: Charlie Schultze, how do you see this? Has the President done enough in the short-term to dig us out of the recession? much in the short run package, because if we do, there's a danger that the economy will be overheated, that we'll see inflation going back up, and we'll force the Federal Reserve into a position where it's got to raise interest rates, and that's certainly not what anybody wants to see happen. So I think that it's a good thing that this is only a modest package for the short run to reinforce what the Fed has done. MR. MAC NEIL: Why is it a bad thing that it's such a modest package, in your view, a bandaid? MR. HEILBRONER: Because we're so far from overheating that if we don't do something at least as vigorous, if you call it vigorous, as the President has administered, we're going to be in the soup. We need to take this recession seriously in terms of its human misery and its political cost and then move on LEXIS'NEXIS'LEXIS NEXIS Services of Mead Data Central, Inc. PAGE 4 (c) 1992 EBC & GWETA. All Rights Reserved, January 30, 1992 beyond. MR. KUDLOW: I think Bob Heilbroner has got this story much closer right. I mean, look, the notion of fears of inflation doesn't strike me as at all realistic. Commodity prices have been steady to declining. We are at the lowest inflation rate in about 25 years. And I applaud that. In fact, I think monetary policy has been on the correct path, but we need fiscal expansionism here. We not only need to send a policy message, but we also need to create as many incentives to work, produce and invest as possible. Now, I've argued for the capital gains tax as a good capital formation incentive. I happen to agree with a lot of the Democratic proposals. I think we need some permanent tax rate reduction for middle income people. For example, Sen. Moynihan, Sen. Kasten and others have proposed a rollback in the payroll tax rate. That strikes me as very sensible. Others have talked about lowering the 15 percent bracket a couple of points. That strikes me as very sensible. We have been in a period of economic austerity and stagnation for several years. The problem is not inflation. The problem is to get the country moving again we should be setting growth targets of 4 percent real GDP for the next several years. MR. MAC NEIL: Let me go back to Charlie Schultze here a moment. Mr. Schultze, the growth rate that the administration, the most optimistic one that it's predicting, with its, these stimuli, are in the order I think of 2.2 percent for next year. If it's only that, shouldn't, as Larry Kudlow says, a lot more stimulus be injected right now, threats of inflation or not? MR. SCHULTZE: No, I don't think so. You know, this country's capacity to produce is only growing a little over 2 percent a year. I don't mind some - let me say it another way --- 10, 15, 20 years ago, yeah, maybe. You're in a recession, it's a mild recession by most standards, yeah, put more stimulus in, I don't worry too much about the inflationary impact right now. The problem is we're going into all of this [a] with deficits right now well over $300 billion, and even that wouldn't bother me so much, but looking down the road, according to the Congressional Budget Office, the deficit's going to level other country, with Japan, with Germany, with France, with Europe, in general, WE have a decrepit, a rotting infrastructure going across the Queensboro Bridge is a living example of what it is, except there are fictions in Queensboro Bridge but there are not fictions in national infrastructure. MR. MAC NEIL: Mr. Feldstein, how do you respond to that? MR. FELDSTEIN: The budget deficit really is a very serious problem and Bob Heilbroner is just minimizing it. Sure, we ought to be spending more on certain aspects of the infrastructure, but there's no reason to add to an already gargantuan budget deficit in order to do that. MR. MAC NEIL: You're saying the infrastructure problem or the future growth problem is not urgent enough or serious enough to increase the deficit further? MR. FELDSTEIN: We don't have to increase the deficit to do it. We certainly shouldn't be in a mode where we are, as Larry Kudlow seems to suggest, cutting taxes further, adding to the budget deficit. What we need to do is to get more investment in plant and equipment, more investment in R&D. The only way we can do that is to increase our national saving rate. And the budget deficit, as Charlie Schultze said, is borrowing back, to use Bob Heilbroner's words, is LEXIS'NEXIS'LEXIS'NEXIS Services of Mead Data Central, Inc. PAGE 5 (c) 1992 EBC & GWETA. All Rights Reserved, January 30, 1992 borrowing back the savings that American households and businesses are providing. And so we just don't have the investment in plant and equipment. We don't have the investment in R&D that we need to get this economy growing like the economies of Europe and Japan. And that should be the No. 1 long-term priority. MR. MAC NEIL: Let me ask Mr. Kudlow what he things about that. MR. KUDLOW: I'm just afraid I don't agree. I think the principal long-term goal is not terribly different from the short run goal. We should try to create sufficient rewards and incentives so that the private sector can flourish, be creative, be innovative, and be inventive and grow this economy. For 45 years after World War II, the average growth rate in real GDP terms was 3 percent a year. If we continue on the course now, even with the President's assumptions on the economy, we're going to have a growth gap which is going to grow larger and larger in the next decade. Now, my view is where President Bush missed his opportunity is he should have a long run plan to put more resources in private hands. We're taking the defense budget down and I reckon we can take it down even more. But I'd like to see a tax reduction that will help saving and investment. MR. FELDSTEIN: You don't care about the budget deficit at all anymore, Larry? MR. KUDLOW: I care about the budget deficit, but I recognize, Marty, that the only way we're going to deal with the budget deficit in the long run is to get this economy back to its proper long run growth trajectory and at the same time to keep interest rates as low as possible by a zero inflation policy. We are not going to do it by raising taxes. We're not going to do it by artificial saving. We're only going to do it by growing, investing and creating new jobs in the private sector. MR. MAC NEIL: Charlie Schultze, what's your view of this long- term situation and whether the President's done enough? MR. SCHULTZE: First, you've got to distinguish between the next year or two when additional amounts on the deficit wouldn't kill us from the long-term when it hurts. It doesn't hurt because deficits in sum, there's that bogey word - when you borrow money, the government gets resources from somewhere. It's taking money. We don't save very much in this country. And the federal government, when it borrows, takes saving that could have been used to invest in the nation's future. So far from needing a tax cut, in the long run, we need more taxes. This country needs it's the lowest tax country in the world - -- just about -- in any big country. MR. KUDLOW: -- a balanced budget -- MR. SCHULTZE: We need to put more resources into investing in our future privately and publicly to cut the budget deficit down 50 there's more available for private investment, but also to use some of this higher taxes and defense cuts for public investment like Heilbroner wants. MR. MAC NEIL: Okay. Well, gentlemen, we could go on and on, but I can't, and I have to thank you all very much and pass it on to Jim. Jim. LEXIS'NEXIS'LEXIS'NEXIS 1992 NGA CONVENTION 14073459623 P.01 Partners in Performance 1992 N.G.A. Convention & RETAILERS WHOLESALERS MANUFACTURERS Buying/Merchandising Expo 39 February 2-5, 1992 Orlando, Florida "10th Anniversary Celebration! " FAXSIMILE TRANSMISSION DATE: FEBRUARY 1, 1992 TO: Bob Simon White House/Research 202-456-6218 FAX FROM: Stu Zlotnikoff 407-345-9623 FAX 407-345-9637 TELEPHONE PAGES INCLUDING THIS COVER PAGE 1 IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ALL MATERIALS INDICATED PLEASE CONTACT THIS OFFICE. William Confer Chauman n the Board M Directors National Grocers Association 1825 Samuel Morse Drive, Reston, Virginia 22090-5317 (703) 437-5300 FAX (703) 437-7768 1992 NGA CONVENTION 14073459623 P.02 Board Resolution Whereas, President George Bush has presented to the nation a comprehensive action plan for revitalizing the nation's economy while maintaining budget discipline; Whereas, the President has proposed immediate action to increase job creating investments, encourage business investment in equipment, and spur home sales; Whereas, the President has established a long term agenda, including the expansion of investment in the future, reformation of the health care system, deficit control, and reformation of banking, tort and civil justice systems; and Whereas, President George Bush during his first term in office has exhibited outstanding leadership and courage. Therefore, Be It Resolved: That the National Grocers Association does hereby endorse and pledge its support for President Bush's Growth Agenda. Furthermore, the National Grocers Association commends his vision and leadership as President and hereby endorses his reelection. 6-B2 THE WHITE HOUSE Office of the Press Secretary (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania) For Immediate Release January 30, 1992 REMARKS BY THE PRESIDENT TO GREATER PHILADELPHIA CHAMBER OF COMMERCE Philadelphia Chamber of Commerce Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 12:11 P.M. EST THE PRESIDENT: Thank you all very, very much for that welcome back. (Applause:) Please be seated, and thank you. Please be seated. I don't want to keep Boris Yeltsin waiting later on. (Laughter.) Thank you, Joe. Senator Specter and Joan, laboring in the vineyards of the City Council here, we're delighted to be with you. And coming up with us from Washington were two of our great congressmen from this area, Larry Coughlin end Kurt Weldon over here. And may I, too, salute the Mayor. I asked Joe earlier on how was it going, realizing that, as in Washington, things have been tough. But I think -- and across the country in many ways. But I said, knowing a little bit about history in Philadelphia, I asked this question, how's the Mayor doing. And Joe and everybody else I've spoken to has said he's really hit the ground in a wonderful way, going forward, bringing out the best in this city. So I want to salute Ed Rendell and his wife, Midge. (Applause.) Joe Paquette, who introduced me, is the Chairman of the creater Philadelphia Chamber. That was a very enthusiastic presentation he made about how things were going -- so much 80 that maybe he can make a little loan to those of us in Washington, D.C., who cannot have quite that optimistic a report. (Laughter.) But I like that can-do spirit of this Chamber, and I'm grateful to Charlie -- to Charlie Pizzi, and to Joe and all the rest of you that have put together this opportunity for me -- all of you at the Chamber. And 'so, thank you very such. I am happy to be here in Philadelphia. As you can imagine, these last few weeks in Washington have been pretty high pressure -- high pressure time for me -- what with all the experts and the instant analysis and the columnists giving unsolicited advice. Thank goodness the Super Bowl is over. (Laughter.) I am very pleased to be here, particularly pleased to be here today, because American businesses -- as represented by this group gathered here -- have a unique perspective on the tough times we've been going through recently. As businessmen and businesswomen, you can separate the sensational from the sensible, the sweet- sounding quick-fixes from real solutions. when it comes to America's economy, we can't accept empty symbols and slogans. we need to work together -- that's what I like what Joe was saying about the way the Mayor and you all are approaching it in this city -- we've got to work together nationally and turn this economy around. Tuesday night, I came before the American people to outline a program for doing just that And we all know this is an election year. The air back in Washington has been thick with feel- good gimmicks that have nothing to do with true prosperity and everything to do with politics. We need to get down to business -- MORE literally. In the critical weeks ahead, common sense must replace partisanship. And I came here to ask for your help. The plan that I put before Congress and the American people contained several action steps, and one of the most critical was this: to free up American businesses by clearing away the cbstacles to growth -- high taxes, overregulation, and government deficits. And I've offered the only comprehensive plan that doesn't raise tax rates, doesn't throw away the spending discipline now in place on the Congress, these spending caps, and doesn't cut defense beyond what's necessary for this country's security. But let me tell you the three words that really separate my plan from what I think of the rest of them: It will work. Those three, it will work. Each of us has a role to play, so I am moving forward with steps I can take right now. You may remember I divided that state of the Union message into steps I can take, short-term areas where we need legislation; and then a longer-term program. Right now, I have instructed every cabinet department to speed up progrowth expenditures -- and we estimate that will be as much as $10 billion worth in the next six months. Don't have to go to Congress to get them to do that, we just accelerate the spending plans to try to give this economy an extra kick. I directed the Secretary of the Treasury to change the federal tax tables so that millions of Americans can choose to have the government withhold less from their paychecks. Now, that's a large number. That could pump as much as $25 billion into the economy this year alone. That is money in the pockets of working men and women to help pay for clothing, or to help save for college, or to help buy a new car. And after all, it is their money. And there has been this schedule where really there has been overwithholding. And this, I think, will give -- for those who elect to do it -- if everyone elected to do it, it would be $25 billion, and I think that will give the economy a jolt. I have asked cabinet departments and federal agencies to institute a 90-day moratorium on new federal regulations that could hinder growth. We'll undertake a top-to-bottom review in the fields of energy, the environment, transportation, exports, financial services, and communications, among others. Here's the test: We will accelerate any regulations that encourage growth and the creation of jobs. And whenever possible, we will scrap those that tie the hands of business and impede growth. I know I. have regulatory responsibilities affecting safety in the workplace, for example; health; environmental protection. And I will not neglect those responsibilities. But you know as well as anyone how government -- sometimes with the best of intentions -- can hobble innovation and risk-taking, the life-blood of a successful business. Government naturally tends to expand ever outward, its red tape oblivious to anything standing in its path. It touches everyone. Every regulation that reduces efficiency slaps a hidden tax on the consumer as well. From the tab on a bag of groceries at the checkout line to the sticker price on the showroom floor -- every American takes a hit when the government over-regulates. American businessmen and -women need this freedom to experiment, to compete without looking over their shoulders for Washington's approval. Small businesses and those just starting up feel the sting of overregulation most of all. Yet these businesses drive America forward. They create most of our new jobs. They reinvigorate our communities. They embody the power of the American dream. I make this pledge: We will set America's dreamers and doers free and put an end to regulatory overkill. (Applause.) In some of this area I will need the help of the Congress, and I promise I will take the message as strongly as I can MORE to the Congress in this regard. Even now, an untold number of hard- working, responsible men and women go without needed bank loans for starting up a new business, or for investing more in an existing one. We've got to ease the credit crunch and give these people a chance. That's why we've given the bank regulators more than 30 policy changes and clarifications to restore common sense and balance to the regulatory system. I've mentioned this before, but in regulation, again, we have a responsibility. We don't want to go back to what is known as forbearance, where we neglect the soundness that is required. But there is regulatory overkill; the people are afraid, I think, in some instances in the financial community because of the excesses of regulation. And we're going to try very hard to achieve a better balance. Now, I've mentioned some of the things that I can do - - and there's a few more. But Tuesday night I told Congress, directly challenged it, told it directly what it must do. And I started with the obvious: NO investment, no new jobs. Congress must reward investment and stop punishing success. For three years now, I have asked the Congress to lower the capital gains tax. And for three years, that essential growth measure has been pilloried and parodied as a windfall for the rich. Now, you and I know that claim for what it is: it's nonsense, sixty percent -- sixty percent of the people who benefit from lower capital gains have incomes under $50,000. A windfall for the rich? BY freeing up investment, a cut in the capital gains tax creates new jobs for those looking for work and better jobs for those who want to move up. A lower capital gains tax helps anyone who owns a small business or a farm -- anyone who owns a home, anyone who has a single investment. We're talking about helping every working man and woman and every retired person in this country. We don't have time for any more of this demagoguery on this question. Let me remind you, in Japan, the effective capital gains tax rate comes to about one percent; Germany doesn't tax long- term capital gains at all: TO create jobs, to restore a vibrant economy for all Americans, Congress must lower the capital gains tax. And it must lower the capital gains tax now -- 15.4 percent. (Applause.) With a few simple steps, taken right now, Congress can help get the housing industry - builders, investors, buyers and sellers -- back on its feet. To those young families who want to buy their first home but can't quite afford it, I say this: We can help put your dream within reach. And we will. I have offered a plan to allow first-time homebuyers to withdraw savings from IRAS without penalty, and to provide a $5,000 tax credit for the first purchase of a home. I might say parenthetically that Senator Specter, your Senator, has been in the forefront of fighting for the change on how IRAs are treated. He understands what this can mean in terms of stimulating the economy nad helping the homeowner. And I have asked Congress to mark the calendar: They must put my recovery plan in place by March 20. Yesterday, right after -- the State of the Union was the night before -- and yesterday morning, I went up to the Congress and I met with the leaders of both the House and the Senate up on Capitol Hill. And I urged them to meet this timetable. I set the deadline because of & simple fact: The American people want action. They deserve action. our states are working overtime -- so are thousands of communities across the country. They're tightening their belts, aggressively facing the future. And every day, individual Americans are working hard to get this economy back on its feet, and it's time MORE for Congress to do the same thing. (Applause.) It can be done in that time frame. What troubles me is if we let it drag on, it's going to get really caught up in the rough and tumble of 1992 national politics. People ate crying out for help now, and the Congress can move. We've seen them do it on a wide array of legislative initiatives, and they can do it on these stimulative tax changes. So I ask every member of Congress -- and please tell them the same thing -- to set aside now partisanship for just 51 days and give this plan a chance. Get the plan, put, it to work. Immediate growth, as I mentioned at the outset, is just one part of the picture, one part of our program. We've got to look even further ahead -- to ensure that when the American economy regains its strength -- and inevitably it will -- it stays strong. We start by opening markets to American goods. In our trade negotiations, we will continue to push for open trade, pulling down the barriers that stand in the way of international competition. To guarantee that American goods and services are the world's finest, we must guarantee America's preeminence in another field -- in the field of education. our America 2000 strategy will revolutionize education in this country, will create New American Schools, places where our kids will learn the lessons they need for a new century. And it will allow parents to choose their children's schools. Choice means competition, and you understand as well as anyone what comes from competition. Competition inspires innovation and creativity. It inspires excellence. And that's why we are going to push for our program; we're going to push for school choice. As I look at education and the fact that we are not where we should be in world standing, it isn't a question of a change here and there. It isn't a question of adding to programs that have failed, programs mandated in Washington. It 1s a question, literally, of revolutionizing. And that's what we tried to do when we set the education goals, working with Republican and Democrat governors: that's what we're trying to do with Lamar Alexander in the lead for us, our Secretary of Education, as we take this America 2000 program all across the country. We need your help. It is the best possible investment for the future of this country. Now, we need a healthy America -- and that means reforming health care. I think everyone would agree we cannot afford our present system. But we've reached a fork in the road. We can either go the way of greater government mandates, leading inevitably to a state system of nationalized care, with the long lines and indifferent service that such a system creates. or we can reform our private system, preserving the greatest possible patient choice, maintaining the quality of care -- which, for all its faults, is still the best in the world. That's the approach I outlined in a rather broad detail Tuesday night, and that's the approach that I will take when we announce the full detail of our plan next week. We've proposed another raform, one that is crucial to creating jobs. America has become the most litigious society on Earth. Frivolous lawsuits are exhausting our ability to compete. If we were as good at rewarding success as we are at suing each other, we would be a century aheed of the rest of the world. (Applause.) Lawsuit madness gums everything up. Needed new products never reach the marketplace because of concerns over liability. In many areas, businesses are forced either to drive prices into the stratosphere -- or literally close shop. My Competitiveness Council that's chaired by the Vice President, vice President Quayle, has offered 50 concrete recommendations to restore sanity to our civil justice system. I've MORE enacted some of these recommendations by Exec utive Order. others, however, require Congress to act. And with all respect, there are 62 lawyers in the United states senate, a lot of lawyers up there on Capitol Hill. I realize that might present a problem, but it also presents an opportunity. And I'd like to see them move forward now with these changes to cap some of these outra Jeous areas of unlimited liability. It's driving our small businesses right flat into the ground, and costing American workers jobs. And, finally, I can use Congress's help in another all+ important area. We must get the federal deficit under control. Now, let's face the facts: The government in Washington is too big and it spends too much. I have proposed a freeze on all domestic discretionary budget authority as well as a freeze on federal domestic government employment. And I have asked Congress to get rid of 246 federally-funded programs. Now, some of them have very noble titles. But in these times, none of them is indispensable. And I'm going to call on Congress to get rid of them. I think we're talking about something like $4 billion in this regard. the list. For too long, Congress has been violating an important principle of good government: Do no harm. It's been imposing its own habits on state and local governments -- and the taxpayer ends up, as you may all know, by footing the bill. These unfinanced federal government mandates, as they're called, require the cities, require the states to provide new services or institute new programs -- but the Congress doesn't provide the money to pay for them. That means the local governments must pass along Congress's wish list to the taxpayer in the form of higher taxes at the local level. Now, the National Governor's Association -- made up, obviously, of Republicans and Democrats -- continually urge the Congress to stop these mandates, which are killing innovation, killing savings at the state and local level. From now on, if Congress passes a mandate, it shouldn't pass the buck. Congress must pay for the mandates it imposes, without heaping on new taxes. (Applause.) I've spared you some of the detail. But taken together, these and other steps that I've outlined will, in my view, reinvigorate our economy -- give it the boost that it needs now, and ensure that it continues to provide opportunity and create jobs for all who want to partake. That is the promise America makes to her citizens. They have a right to expect no less. Almost two centuries ago, Philadelphia's merchants gathered together at the City Tavern to form this Chamber of Commerce. They looked out on a nation almost limitless in possibility. A special kind of faith brought them here -- that if they worked hard, and worked together, their young country would allow them to fulfill their dreams. America has changed dramatically in those 200 years. And yet, the essentials remain. The pessimists are wrong; the pessimists are wrong. We are going to pull out of these tough times. Inflation is down; inventories are down. The market has been expressing optimism in the future. Interest rates are down. This is no time for gloom and doom. It is time for action in Washington to restore confidence and get this economy moving again. (Applause.) And here's where you come in. We need your help. You can effect the way Congress approaches this program that I have outlined in some detail. We need your help. And with your help, we'll get that action, and we will reaffirm our country's rightful place as the world's leader, for this decade and for the next century. Thank you all very, very much for this opportunity. Thank you. (Applause.) END 12:37 P.M. EST To BOB Date Jan 31/92 Time 1:25p WHILE YOU WERE OUT M Tom Zaucha of wat. Groars Assoc. Phone (407) 352-4000 Area Code Number Extension 2642 TELEPHONED PLEASE CALL CALLED TO SEE YOU WILL CALL AGAIN WANTS TO SEE YOU URGENT RETURNED YOUR CALL Message Operator De AMPAD EFFICIENCY® 23-021 CARBONLESS staffed (Duggan/Simon) January 29, 1992 Draft Three Grocers PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS: NATIONAL GROCERS ASSOCIATION ORLANDO, FLORIDA TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 4, 1992 [time] [Acknowledgments, humor] It's a pleasure to be with you. I'll always remember the warm reception the National Grocers Association gave me when I 7-31-85 addressed your 1985 convention in New Orleans. You gave me a good education about your business then, and I remember it still. Of course, our world has changed dramatically since 1985. We won the Cold War. We led a coalition in the Gulf to crush Saddam Hussein's aggression in Kuwait. We have created a world with the prospects of unprecedented prosperity and peace. But we've also run into hard times. Our economy has slowed down, and we must get it fired up again. The professional pessimists tell us America has become weak and disabled -- that our economy has fallen and it can't get up. Well, that's just plain bunk. We'll get up and running in no time -- and we'll do it the old-fashioned way: We'll use our common sense, our work ethic, our determination, and we'll carry the entire world into the Next American Century. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to understand how. You just stick with the basics. I proposed a common-sense action plan last week in my State of the Union address. It gets investment going, because you can't build new businesses without 2 new investment. It strengthens the industries that historically have led us into recoveries -- especially real-estate. It hacks away obstacles to growth -- regulations, high taxes, nuisance lawsuits. It cuts the federal deficit by cutting spending. And it builds on our strengths. It lets American workers and businesses show the world what they can do. All over this country, families, businesses and even local governments have grasped a simple fact: The world has changed. The old ways won't do. If we want to remain the world's economic dynamo, we've got to get leaner and tougher. We've got to change with the times, and abandon old ways from the old days. More to the point, we've got to get Washington moving toward the 21st Century. To do that, I need your help. I've asked Congress to enact some laws that will get our economy moving and growing again -- and I've given Congress a deadline: March 20. Circle that Friday on your calendar. I have. Call it J-Day: The day by which Congress needs to take a few simple steps to create good American jobs -- now. Here's what I want by J-Day. First, incentives to invest: an amended alternative minimum tax and a 15-percent investment FY 93 Budyet tax allowance. P. 8 Second, incentives to build and buy real-estate: A change in passive-loss rules for active real-estate investors; penalty- free withdrawals from IRAs for first-time homebuyers, and a $5,000 tax credit for the first purchase of that first home. 3 Third, incentives to succeed: Cut the capital gains tax. This tax hurts anyone who has made a sensible investment -- in a home, a business, a farm, even a pension plan. None of our key economic competitors taxes gains at high rates -- Japan's effective rate comes to about 1 percent; Germany doesn't tax long-term capital gains at all. The world's fastest growing economies let people collect their capital gains tax-free. Let's stop penalizing excellence. Cut the capital gains tax -- now. Three measures, three pieces of common sense; three things Congress should do by March 20. I'm counting on your help. In the meantime, I've initiated some reforms that will get the economy moving -- without having to wait for Congress to act. Here's one you'll like: I've imposed a 90-day freeze on federal regulations that could hinder economic growth. During that period, all departments and agencies will review regulations, old and new -- to stop the ones that will hurt growth and speed up those that will help growth. I see from your convention schedule that you have a workshop brochise see entitled: "The Regulators Are Back." No wonder: You can't get through a day without having to worry about workplace safety regulations, food safety regulations, environmental regulations. Now, no one objects to the stated aims of these regulations: Health and safety and respect for the environment are classic, Mom-and-apple pie social values. But you know better than anyone that when regulators carry regulation too far, there won't be any apple pie for Mom to buy. 4 I ran a council on deregulation for eight years, as vice president. And I'm here to assure you: The spirit of deregulation is back. I want you to be able to spend your time worrying about what you can do for your customers -- rather than fretting about what some regulator might do to you. The greatest lesson of this century is: Government micromanagement doesn't work. After seventy years of tragic failure, the leaders in Moscow finally recognize that total government regulation produces only one thing: total failure. Now, Russians want to try something different -- like grocery stores with groceries on the shelves. I find it a bitter irony that some in Congress still favor government coercion and control over freedom and competition. It's as though we'd entered a time warp. When I hear the shrill sounds of "soak the rich" demagoguery -- when I hear politicians demand more taxes, regulations, government coercion and control, I wonder: Where have these people been for the past three years? Let me make you a promise: If Congress sends me any new legislation to make economic regulation more intrusive, more burdensome, more unreasonable, I'll veto it. Here's an example: Margaret The so-called FDA enforcement bill. I'm sure those of you who Por 301- 4370 sell your own private-label groceries aren't exactly thrilled by 44 in the prospect of regulatory G Men prowling around America's food factories and piling on new record-keeping burdens. But that's just what some in Congress want to do. Well, let me tell you in 5 no uncertain terms: That bill, and coercive bills like it, are big fat targets for my veto pen. And if Congress sends unfunded mandates down to state and local governments, I'll tell it to make a choice: Pay for the mandates without raising taxes, or get ready for a veto. The federal government spends too much money as it is. It has no right to force state and local governments to accept new burdens. Again, Congress can help get the economy moving if it will stop demagoging and do the right thing. Remember: March 20. SOTU But we also need to look beyond the J-Day agenda. I 1-28-92 nine proposed an eight-point long-term plan in my State of the Union address. I want to highlight three of those measures today. First, let's open up and expand markets all over the world. A revolutionary new GATT agreement will make the world trading system come to grips with the damaging tariffs and subsidies in agriculture. And by tearing down economic barriers with Mexico and Canada, a new North American Free Trade Agreement will lift us to new heights of prosperity. It will create new American jobs. Second, let free choice and free markets reform our health SOTU care system. I've proposed a health insurance tax credit of up 1-28-92 to $3,750 for each low-income family. My plan also assures that Americans will have access to basic health insurance even if they change jobs or develop serious health problems. We can't improve health care by jeopardizing the financial health of labor- intensive businesses. That's why I'll never sign my name to any 6 scheme that mandates benefits an employer should pay. Third, let's strengthen the family -- the cornerstone of the American dream. Let's ease the burden of child-rearing. The tax personal tax exemption has not kept up with inflation. In 1948 from tables Glenn (?), the personal exemption was set at $600 In 1992 dollars, 566-2563 Hu bbard that exemption would be worth $ 3400 But over the years, we've 2150 only increased the exemption to I'm asking Congress immediately to increase the exemption for each child by $500. We can afford this move in the right direction. Look at my economic proposals and you will find simple, plain solutions to our problems. Some may complain that they lack the flash of an expensive new program. But I'm not seeking spending for spending's sake. I want results. My plan is sound and it will work. If you hear people in Congress gripe that they can't get the job done by March 20, remind them: We won the Gulf War in 45 44 1-16-91 to days. Surely Congress can pass my urgent domestic initiatives in 2-28-91 52 53 days. Remember, Congress can act with lightning speed when it wants to. It took the House of Representatives just one day to CQ 10-5-91sh shut down its bank and thereby stop its little problem with p.2845 check-bouncing. So: Accept no excuses. Accept no delays. And accept no substitutes. With your help -- we'll get America moving again soon. Thank you. May God bless you and the United States of America. # # # 2 16:58 001 OF THE COPY FUR YOUR INFORMATION THE TREASURY 1789 DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY OFFICE OF TAX POLICY FACSIMILE COVER SHEET 1500 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, NW WASHINGTON, DC 20220 Fax Message Number: Date: January 30, 1992 Number of Pages to Follow: 3 To: Bob Simon White House Addressee's Fax Number: 456-6218 Addressee's Confirmation Number: 456-7750 From: R. Glenn Hubbard Deputy Assistant Secretary (Tax Analysis) Sender's Fax Number: (202) 786-8440 Sender's Confirmation Number: (202) 566-2563 Comments/special Instructions: UNCLASSIFIED TABLE 1.-HISTORY OF FEDERAL INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAX EXEMPTIONS AND FIRST AND TOP BRACKET RATES In dollars unless otherwise specified] 01/30/92 Personal exemptions I Tax rates Year First bracket Top bracket Single persons Married couples Dependents Nale (percent) Taxable income Rate (percent) Texable Income up lo over 16:59 1913-15 3,000 4,000 ! 20,000 1 500,000 1916 3,000 4,000 2 20,000 15 2,000,000 1917 1,000 2,000 200 2 2,000 67 2,000,000 1918 1,000 2,000 200 6 4,000 11 1,000,000 1919-20 1,000 2,000 200 4 4,000 73 1,000,000 1921 1,000 3 2,500 400 4 4,000 73 1,000,000 1922 81 1,000 # 2,500 400 4 4,000 56 200,000 1923 1,000 3 2,500 400 3 4,000 56 200,000 1924 1,000 2,500 400 4 1,6 4,000 46 500,000 1925-28 1,500 3,500 400 4 1½ 4,000 25 100,000 1929 1,500 3,500 400 4 % 4,000 24 100,000 1930-31 1,500 3,500 400 4 1½ 4,000 25 100,000 1932-33 1,000 2,500 400 4 4,000 63 1,000,000 1934-35 1,000 2,500 400 5 4 4,000 63 1,000,000 1936-39 1,000 2,500 400 5 4 4,000 79 5,000,000 1940 800 2,000 400 6 14 4,000 81.1 5,000,000 1941 750 1,500 400 6 10 2,000 81 5,000,000 1942-43 0 500 1,200 350 6 19 2,000 88 200,000 1944-45 T 500 1,000 500 23 2,000 B 94 200,000 1946-47 500 1,000 500 19 2,000 8 86.45 200,000 1948-49 600 1,200 600 16.6 4,000 8 82.13 400,000 1950 600 1,200 600 17.4 4,000 B 91 400,000 TABLE 1.-HISTORY OF FEDERAL INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAX EXEMPTIONS AND FIRST AND TOP BRACKET RATES-Continued in dollars unloss otherwise specified] Personal exemptions 1 Tax rates a First bracket Top bracket Year Married Singlo persons couples Dependents Taxable income Taxable Income Rafe (percont) up to Rate (percent) over 1951 600 1,200 600 20.4 4,000 0 91 400,000 1952-53 600 1,200 600 22.2 4,000 e 92 400,000 1954-63 600 1,200 600 20 4,000 # 91 400,000 1964 600 1,200 600 16 1,000 77 400,000 1965-67 600 1,200 600 14 1,000 70 200,000 1968 600 1,200 600 11 1,000 0 75.25 200,000 56 1969 600 1,200 600 14 1,000 0 77 200,000 1970 625 1,250 625 14 1,000 0 10 71.75 200,000 1971 675 1,350 675 14 1,000 10 11 70 200,000 1972-78 12 750 12 1,500 12 750 10 14 1,000 10 11 70 200,000 1979-80 1,000 2,000 1,000 18 14 2,100 10 11 70 212,000 1981 1,000 2,000 1,000 11 14 13.825 2,100 10 11 14 69,125 212,000 1982 1,000 2,000 1,000 18 12 2,100 10 50 106,000 1983 1,000 2,000 1,000 10 11 2,100 10 50 106,000 1984 1,000 2,000 1,000 10 11 2,100 10 50 159,000 1985 1,040 2,080 1,040 18 11 2,180 10 50 165,480 1986 1,080 2,160 1,080 10 11 2,270 10 50 171,580 1987 1,900 3,800 1,900 18 11 3,000 10 38.5 90,000 1988 18 1,950 15 3,900 16 1,950 10 10 15 29,750 10 17 28 29,750 1989-90 15 18 2,000 16 18 4,000 15 18 2,000 13 18 15 (18) 10 17 28 (10) 1991 and after 15 18 2,150 15 10 4,300 15 18 2,150 20 15 (18) 10 31 (19) 003 Frie MAPIR allowed additional exemptions, lilino intel returns beginning In 1948. For the relationship of other I From 1948 through 1986 taxpayers who were blind or over sixty-five were allowed additional exemptions # Taxable income excludes zero-beacke1 amount from 1977 through 1086. Rates shown apply only lo married persons filing joint returns beginning in 1948 for the relationship of other rates to these rates. From 1922 through 1986 lower rates applied 10 Bong-term capital gains. 39-716 5 If net Income exceeded $5,000, a married person's exemption was $2,000. 01/30/92 1 Alter earned-income credit equal to 25 percent of tax on earned income. B Before eamed-income deduction equal to 10 percent of earned nel Income. 0 0 Exclusive of Victory Fax. I T Exemptions shown were for surtax only. Normal tax exemption was $500 per tax return plus earned Income of wife up lo $500 on Joint returns. a Subject to the following maximum effective rate 1lmitations [year, and maximum effective rate (In percent): 91 1944-45-90; 1046-47-85.5; 1948-49-77.0; 1950-87.0; 1951-87.2; 1952-53-88.0; and 1954-63-87.0. 17:00 - 0 Includes surcharge of 7.5 percent In 1968, 10 percent in 1969, and 2.5 percent In 1970. 3 10 Does not Include add on minimum tax on proference Items or altornative nainimum tax. 11 Earned Incomo was subject to makimum marginal rates of 60 percent In 1971 and 50 percent from 1972 through 1981. 18 In addition to the pursonal exemptions, a por capila tax credit of $30 was allowed for 1975, and $35 por capita of 2 percent of the first $9,000 of taxable Income, whichever was largor, for 1076-78. IS Beginning In 1975, B refundable Barned-Income credit is allowed for low-Income individuals. 14 After BOX credit of 1.25 percent against regular tax. 16 The personal exemption is phased out for higher lamable Incomes. 16 The Tale applied 10 the first $29,750 of taxable Income Is gradually Increased to the top-brachet rato between laxable Incomes of $71,900 and $149,250 in 1988. The phaseout range Is adjusted for Inliation beginning In 1989. 57 11 Excludes the effects of The phaseout of the 16 parcent bracket and the personal examptions. See footnoles IS and 16. 10 The exemption Is adjusted for Infiation beginning In 1990. 19 The bracket limits are adjusted for Inflation beginning in 1989. 30 The phaseout of the 16-percent rato, effective in 1988-90, kg repoated for yoars beginning Biller December 31, 1990. Sources: Rolovani public laws and summaries prepared by the Joint Committee on Taxation. Much of the material is reprinted, with permission, from 1. Pechman, "Fedoral Tax Policy," pp. 313, 314, Brookings Instituto, Washington, D.C. (5th ed. 1987). 004 SENT BY: ;10- 8-91 ; 4:34PM 000-> 2 SENT BY:Xerox Telecopier 7021 :10- 8-81 15:12 2022458351-> 000:# 2 T. 416/7 THE SECRETARY OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES WASHINGTON, O.C. Seses 8 1991 The Honorable Henry A. Waxman Chairman, Subcommittee on Health and the Environment Committee on Energy and Commerce House 08 Representatives Washington, DC 20515 Dear Mr. Chairman: We understand that your Subcommittee will soon consider an amendment in the nature of a substitute to H.R. 2597, the "Food, Drug, Cosmetic, and Device Enforcement Amendments of 1991". This bill would amend the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the Act) to give significant new authorities to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) such as recall authority, embargo authority, subpeess authority, civil money penalties, expanded authority to inspect and document company records during facility inspections, and new authorities with respect to violative imported products. If the bill were presented to the President in its current form. I would recommend that it be vetood. Based on our reading of the Committee Discussion Draft, dated September 26, 1991, it is evident that changes have been made to the bill as introduced to narrow some authorities and guard against abuse or unauthorised use of these authorities. We have very strong reservations about the broad scope of the bill and feel that it proposes extending enforcement authorities further than necessary. Beyond this, we have some specific concerns about several provisions. We would like to provide several examples. First, we are strongly oppesed to the bill's requirement for mandatory new record-keeping and reporting requirements, and we are concerned that the bill fails to describe the kinds of records that would be subject to inspection. The bill proposes civil money penalties for specified violative acts. However, we believe these authorities should be restricted to significant or repeated violations of the Act. Also, we oppose the unnecesserily high monetary limits established in the bill for civil money penalties. Further, the bill proposes subpoena authority. We do not believe this new authority is necessary. SENT BY: ;10- 8-91 ; 4:34PM ; 000-> ;# 3 SENT BY:Xerox Telecopier 7021 110- 8-01 i 15:12 2022450351-> 000 3 Page 2 - The Honorable Henry A. Waxman We object to the provision of the bill concerning administrative recall authority. Currently and historically, when FDA determines that a product should be recalled from the market because of violations of the Act, we are able to achieve more then DO percent of such recalls through veluntary compliance. For the reasons stated and because of the unnecessarily broad scepe of the proposed substitute to H.R. 2597, we recommend that 16 not be favorably considered. We are advised by the Office of Management and Budget that there 18 no objection to the presentation of this report and that the enactment of H.R. 2597 in its ourrent form would not be in accord with the program of the President. Sincerely, Lane Louis W. Sullivan, M.D. THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON SCHEDULE PROPOSAL DECEMBER 18, 1991 TO: KATHY SUPER, DEPUTY ASSISTANT TO THE PRESIDENT FOR APPOINTMENTS AND SCHEDULING THROUGH: DAVID DEMAREST, ASSISTANT TO THE PRESIDENT FOR COMMUNICATIONS FROM: BOBBIE KILBERG' RK DEPUTY ASSISTANT TO THE PRESIDENT FOR PUBLIC LIAISON MOLLY OSBORNE, ASSISTANT DIRECTOR, OFFICE OF PUBLIC LIAISON REQUEST: That the President address the National Grocers Association (NGA) at its annual 10th anniversary convention in Orlando, FL (February 2-5). PURPOSE: To discuss Administration economic and health care policy initiatives immediately after the State of the Union to a supportive audience of small businessmen. BACKGROUND: The National Grocers Association is comprised of independent family-owned grocery companies and wholesalers who service them. These family-owned grocers are active politically and committed to community service. There will be approximately 2,000 individuals present at NGA's general business sessions held on February 2-5, 1992. The audience will be comprised of retail grocers, major wholesalers and manufacturers from all 50 states. According to Tom Zaucha, President & CEO of NGA, NGA will endorse the President's reelection at its Board of Directors meeting on February 1, 1992. DATE AND TIME: February 2-5, 1992. DURATION: 30 minutes. LOCATION: Orange County Convention Center, Orlando, FL PARTICIPANTS: The President In audience: membership of NGA (approximately 2,000) SEQUENCE OF EVENTS: TBD. REMARKS REQUIRED: Yes. MEDIA COVERAGE: Open Press. PROGRAM UPDATE Partners in Performance RETAILERS WHOLESALERS MANUFACTURERS Introducing 1992 N.G.A. Convention & Buying/Merchandising Expo Orlando, Florida February 2-5, 1992 GREAT BUSINESS PERFORMANCES at the 1992 N.G.A. Convention February 2, 1992 Early Bird Session-EXCELLENCE IN MERCHANDISING" Kick off the convention with the 1992 "Excellence in Merchandising" competition presen- tations, the culmination of the past year's best in merchandising in 13 different categories. See and learn about 39 proven display merchandising successes that you can use for your business today. This year's Early Bird Session promises to provide a creative array of excellent merchandising ideas. The winners alone account for combined bottom line increases of 3,588% ! Come find out how they did it -- apply these proven techniques to increase your profits, customers, and employee pride. General Session - "OUR NATION'S BUSINESS TODAY" The week before convention, President Bush will give the State of the Union Address unveiling his economic plans. Meryl Comer, the Emmy Award-winning anchor of television's "Nation's Business Today" and "It's Your Business," will conduct a pointed critique and moderate a thought-provoking discussion on the political and economic trends impacting the nation. Joining Ms. Comer will be Dr. c. Jackson Grayson, Jr., founder of the American Productivity and Quality Center, and N.G.A. political analyst, Dr. James Unger, as well as political leaders from the Democratic and Republican parties. February 3, 1992 General Session - — "THE GROCERY INDUSTRY -- ISSUES AND ANSWERS" Following a presentation on the issues and challenges facing the industry today G-Trends by N.G.A. President and CEO Thomas K. Zaucha, probe the critical forces of change impacting the food industry in 1992 with a blue-ribbon panel of industry leaders, including Everett Dingwell, president and CEO, Certified Grocers of California; Ron D. Pedersen, Chairman of Marketing Specialists Corporation, and 1992 Chairman of the National Food Brokers Association; Michael A. Cianciarulo, president of Gooding's Supermarkets; moderator J. Byron Felter, founder, J.B. Felter Affiliates, and noted industry analyst and recipient of the 1991 N.G.A. Industry Service Award; Mike Wright, chairman, CEO, and president, Super Valu Stores, Inc.; and H. John Greeniaus, president and CEO, Nabisco Brands, Inc. SPECIAL BRIEFING SESSION - PART 1: "Responding to the New Competitors" Join a panel of senior marketing and purchasing executives from leading wholesalers and retailers to discuss the critical trade issues and new marketing strategies that have arisen in response to the buying and selling practices of the wholesale clubs and mass merchandisers. February 4, 1992 General Session - "QUALITY PLUS SERVICE EQUALS PERFORMANCE" Two-time Olympic gold medalist and member of the Olympic Hall of Fame, Donna de Varona, will introduce the subject of teamwork and excellence. THE RITZ-CARLTON EXPERIENCE Horst H. Shulze, president and CEO of The Ritz-Carlton Hotel Company, shows how a philosophy to instill quality and service can produce the highest level of professionalism. The Ritz-Carlton is "Ladies and Gentlemen serving Ladies and Gentlemen." SERVICE, DISNEY STYLE Disney is a recognized leader in quality and service. Frankie Turner, manager, Operations and Marketing, Walt Disney World Productions will demonstrate how excellence is achieved through planning, facilities, proper supportive training, and management of your people. SPECIAL BRIEFING SESSION - PART 2: "How Retailers Can Compete Against the Deep Discount Store, Wholesale Club and Discounters" Dr. Kenneth Stone, professor of economics and extension economist at lowa State University, and Dan Boone, director of trade marketing for the business development group of Noble & Associates, will probe the impact of Wal-Mart, K-Mart, and other discount mass merchandisers and clubs on supermarket sales by department. Share the results of their research on grocery sales before and after the impact of new food competitors. Learn how to strategically compete with a special focus on a sample analysis of how mass merchandisers and wholesale clubs are impacting the Florida market. Women Grocers of America Luncheon "LIFE ON THE HOME FRONT: The Family Partnership" Mrs. Brenda Schwarzkopf tells her experiences of an American family in time of war. Only Mrs. Schwarzkopf, as the spouse of General H. Norman Schwarzkopf, can share the mixed emotions of anxiety and great pride for their extended family of thousands of American men and women. February 5, 1992 Closing Brunch. — "ETHICS AND VALUES IN AMERICA" F. Lee Bailey, renowned defense lawyer, author, and legal scholar, presents his views on ethics and values and their relationship to an individual's performance. Mr. Bailey will share his views regarding the merits and implications of the Thomas confirmation hearings and the William Kennedy Smith trial. Partners in Performance 1992 N.G.A. Convention & RETAILERS WHOLESALERS MANUFACTURERS Buying/Merchandising Expo February 2-5, 1992 Orlando, Florida "10th Anniversary Celebration! December 13, 1991 Ms. Bobbie Kilberg Deputy Assistant to the President for Public Liaison 128 Old Executive Office Building Washington, DC 20500 Dear Bobbie: The National Grocers Association (N.G.A.) is eager to support President Bush's reelection campaign in 1992. To that end, and as part of his overall strategy, N.G.A. would like to help communicate the President's economic growth proposal to the grocery industry and to the communities our members serve. N.G.A. will hold its 10th Anniversary convention February 2-5, at the Orange County Convention Center in Orlando, Florida. Given the fact that this major national meeting of the grocery industry follows closely the President's State of the Union address on January 28, we feel that it would be a timely opportunity to reinforce the Administration's economic record and growth plan to a valuable political/business constituency. As you know, N.G.A.'s membership is comprised of independent family-owned grocery companies and the wholesalers who service them. Traditionally, family-owned grocers are the keystones of their communities and are active politically and committed to community service. The independent grocer symbolizes small business entrepreneurism. In 1985, then Vice President Bush addressed this audience in New Orleans on tax reform. Five thousand people attend the convention, and approximately 2,000 people are present at our general business sessions held on February 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th. The audience will be comprised of retail grocers, major wholesalers, and manufacturers from all 50 states. I've enclosed a copy of the convention program agenda. You will note that the convention begins with a session entitled "Our Nation's Business," moderated by Meryl Comer. If the timing and location are compatible with the President's schedule, we would be honored by his appearance any time during the convention. National Grocers Association 1825 Samuel Morse Drive, Reston, Virginia 22090-5317 (703) 437-5300 FAX (703) 437-7768 Page Two December 13, 1991 On the other hand, if the President's schedule precludes a visit to Orlando in this time frame, we would suggest, as an alternative, a live satellite address to the convention on Sunday morning, February 2, or a video message. Bobbie, as was true in 1985, I'm confident that our convention represents the ideal small business audience to receive a major economic policy message from the Administration, and the timing is perfect. We will formally endorse the President's State of the Union message and his candidacy for reelection at our Board of Directors meeting on February 1. In summary, if you feel this project has merit, please let me know what further information I can provide. N.G.A. compliments the work of your office and the professional- ism of your staff. You have developed an environment for open communication from a broad cross section of public constituencies. N.G.A. appreciates being a part of that system and having an opportunity to provide input to the administration through your office. We look forward to four more years of working with you. With best regards to you and your family for a happy holiday season. I am sincerely, Jm Sauchn Thomas K. Zaucha President and CEO TKZ/psr CC: Molly Osborne Lorena Jaeb (Duggan/Simon) January 29, 1992 Draft Two food costs Grocers PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS: NATIONAL GROCERS ASSOCIATION ORLANDO, FLORIDA TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 4, 1992 [time] [Acknowledgments, humor] It's a pleasure to be with you. I'll always remember the warm reception the National Grocers Association gave me when I addressed your 1985 convention in New Orleans. You gave me a good education about your business then, and I remember it still. Of course, our world has changed dramatically since 1985. We have won the Cold War. We have led a coalition in the Gulf to crush Saddam Hussein's aggression in Kuwait. We have created a world with the prospects of unprecedented prosperity and peace. But we've also run into hard times. Our economy has slowed down, and we must get it fired up again. Some declinists like to argue that the economy has become a victim of infirmity and age: It's fallen and it can't get up. Well, that's just plain bunk. We'll get up and running in no time -- and we'll do it the old-fashioned way: We'll use our common sense, our work ethic, our determination, and we'll carry the entire world into the Next American Century. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to understand how. You just stick with the basics. I proposed a common-sense action plan last week in my State of the Union address. It gets investment going, because you can't build new businesses without 2 new investment. It strengthens the industries that historically have led us into recoveries -- especially the real-estate industry. It hacks away obstacles to growth -- regulations, high taxes, nuisance lawsuits. It cuts the federal deficit by cutting spending. And it builds on our strengths. It lets American workers and businesses show the world what they can do. All over this country, families, businesses and even local governments have grasped a simple fact: The world has changed. The old ways won't do. If we want to remain the world's economic dynamo, we've got to get leaner and tougher. We've got to change with the times, and abandon old ways from the old days. More to the point, we've got to get Washington moving toward the 21st Century. To do that, I need your help. I've asked Congress to enact some laws that will get our economy moving and growing again -- and I've given Congress a deadline: March 20. Circle that Friday on your calendar. I have. Call it J-Day: The day by which Congress should have taken a few simple steps to create good American jobs -- now. Here's what I want by J-Day: First, incentives to invest: an amended alternative minimum tax and a 15-percent investment tax allowance. Second, incentives to build and buy real-estate: A change in passive-loss rules for active real-estate investors; penalty- free withdrawals from IRAs for first-time homebuyers, and a $5,000 federal income tax credit for the first purchase of that first home. 3 Third, incentives to succeed: Cut the capital gains tax. This tax hurts anyone who has made a sensible investment -- in a home, a business, a farm, even a pension plan. None of our key economic competitors taxes it at a high rate -- Japan's effective rate comes to about 1 percent; Germany doesn't tax long-term capital gains at all, and the world's fastest growing economies all let people collect their capital gains -- tax-free. Let's stop criminalizing excellence. Cut the capital gains tax -- now. Three measures, three pieces of common sense; three little big things that Congress should do by March 20. I'm counting on your help. In the meantime, I've initiated some reforms that will get the economy moving -- without having to wait for Congress to act. Here's one you'll like: I've imposed a 90-day freeze on federal regulations that could hinder economic growth. During that period, all departments and agencies will review regulations, old and new -- to stop the ones that will hurt growth and speed up those that will help growth. I see from your convention schedule that you have devoted a workshop to the topic: "The Regulators Are Back.' " No wonder: You can't get through a day without having to worry about environmental regulations, food safety regulations, workplace safety regulations. No one objects to the stated aims of these regulations: Health and safety and respect for the environment are classic, Mom-and-apple pie social values. But you know better than anyone that when regulators carry regulation to 4 unreasonable extremes, there won't be any apple pie for Mom to buy. I ran a council on deregulation for eight years, as vice president. And I'm here to assure you: The spirit of deregulation is back. I want you to be able to spend your time worrying about what you can do for your customers -- rather than fretting about what some regulator might do to you. The greatest lesson of this century is: Government micromanagement doesn't work. After seventy years of tragic failure, the leaders in Moscow at last have come around to recognizing that total government regulation produces only one thing: total government power. Now, Russians want to try something different -- like grocery stores with something to sell. I find it a bitter irony that some of the powers that be on Capitol Hill still favor government coercion and control over freedom and competition. I feel as if I had entered a time warp. When I hear people demanding taxes, regulations, government coercion and control, I wonder: Have these people been in hibernation for the past three years? Let me make you a promise: If Congress sends me any new legislation to make economic regulation more intrusive, more burdensome, more unreasonable, I'll send it back with my veto. [Specific bills might be cited here, for instance there is a Waxman FDA enforcement bill that already has been issued a veto threat. ] 5 And if Congress sends unfunded mandates down to state local governments, I'll tell it to make a choice: Pay for the mandates without raising taxes, or get ready for a veto. The federal government spends too much money as it is: It has no right to force state and local governments to accept new burdens. Again, Congress can help get the economy moving if it will stop demagoging and do the right thing. Remember: March 20. But we also need to look beyond the J-Day agenda. I proposed an eight-point long-term plan in my State of the Union address. I want to highlight three of those measures today. First, break open markets all over the world; promote free and open trade. We must continue open and expand international markets. I'm working in the GATT talks to conclude a revolutionary new global trade agreement -- to make the world trading system come to grips with the damaging tariffs and subsidies in agriculture. And I'm convinced that by tearing down economic barriers with Mexico and Canada, a new North American Free Trade Agreement will lift us to new heights of prosperity. Second, create the best schools in the world. In the information age, ideas count -- education counts. And let's face it, our schools aren't as good as they should be. We need competition to revolutionize our schools. By the year 2000, I want all American parents -- including poor parents -- to have the freedom to choose where their children attend school. I want us to fulfill our long national commitment to equal opportunity. I want Congress to approve my America 2000 Education strategy. 6 Third, strengthen the family -- the cornerstone of the American dream. Let's ease the burden of child-rearing. The personal tax exemption has not kept up with inflation. In 1948 (?), the personal exemption was set at $---. In 1992 dollars, that exemption would be worth $---. But over the years, we've only increased the exemption to $----. I'm asking Congress immediately to increase the exemption for each child by $500. We can afford this move in the right direction. Look at my economic proposals and you will find simple, plain solutions to our problems. Some people may complain that they lack the flash of an expensive new program, but I'll accept that hit. I don't care about expense. I care about results. Help me help American workers -- not with vast new programs that promise results tomorrow in exchange for your wages today, but with common-sense measures that will get the job done. If you hear someone in Congress complain that they can't get the job done by March 20, remind them: We won the Gulf War in 45 days. Surely Congress can pass three little initiatives in 53 days. Besides, you know and I know: If we linked Congressional pay to getting these measures passed -- they'd be law next week. So: Accept no excuses. Accept no delays. And accept no substitutes. With your help -- we'll get America moving again soon. Thank you. May God bless you and the United States of America. # # # (Duggan/Simon) January 28, 1992 Draft One Grocers PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS: NATIONAL GROCERS ASSOCIATION ORLANDO, FLORIDA TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 4, 1992 [time] [Acknowledgments, humor] It's a pleasure to be with you. I'll always remember the warm reception the National Grocers Association gave me when I addressed your 1985 convention in New Orleans. You gave me a good education about your business then, and I remember it still. Your members are independent local and regional supermarkets and small supermarket chains. Typically, your firms are still owned and managed by your founding families. Together with our larger, national supermarket chains and the old-fashioned corner stores that still flourish in many communities, you proudly fill the retail end of the most efficient distribution system in the world. 11 If you're looking for evidence that this is the greatest country on earth, there's no better place to start than with American food and agriculture. From our farmers, through our food processors and wholesalers, to our grocers, our system gives Americans a bounty of nutritious and appetizing food at ever more affordable prices and in ever more convenient varieties and packages. [Fill in statistical data to demonstrate ever more affordable prices] 2 Other nations may boast economic achievements that earn our admiration, but no one matches our food distribution system -- it is, quite simply, the envy of the world. During the Cold War era, whenever we had influential visitors from the Communist bloc, as often as possible we would take them to see American supermarkets. You may remember that on Mikhail Gorbachev's first trip to the United States, President Reagan arranged for him to visit a Safeway store. Visits like these gave leading communists from Gorbachev on down a glimpse into the secret to your success -- the secret to America's success. And that secret is what I'm fighting to renew for all Americans in all the industries and sectors of our economy: freedom, opportunity and competition. Family-run grocery stores are living, working parables about the American dream. Your own business may have started with the savings and sacrifice and stubborn will of a grandmother or grandfather, perhaps an immigrant to this country. For a start- up grocer from Poland or Germany or Italy, the first step in becoming competitive may have been to learn English as a second language. For everyone in the grocery business -- then and now - - the foundation of marketing is being a good neighbor. Dealing in perishables in an age before refrigeration, your grandparents didn't need computers or MBAs to master the skills of just-in-time delivery and inventory management. Now that advanced education and technologies are commonplace in the grocery business, you're serving American consumers better than ever. And like your forebears, you're working wonders on the 3 thinnest of profit margins and in the face of bracing competition. Woman for woman and man for man, you're the best marketers in the world. And I hope you're prepared to put your talent to work for a very special assignment. You see, I need your help. I need you to apply your very best motivational skills to getting Congress to do its job. I've asked Congress to enact some laws that will get our economy moving and growing again. You're the kind of people who can motivate Congress to get its job done urgently -- and to get it done right. I've given Congress a deadline for action. The deadline is March 15 -- that's less only than six weeks away. I've asked Congress to enact some proven remedies for the economic slowdown. They're proven by long years of experience showing that heavy taxes and government regulation can kill the dreams of families and enterprises. They're confirmed in the age-old wisdom that sound economic policy makes good social policy. In other words, what's good for our families and neighborhoods is what's best for the nation. First, therefore, I'm seeking greater economic freedom and relief from high taxes -- so that young families can fulfill their dream of buying a first home. I hope you will join me in demanding that Congress enact my plan to allow first-time home buyers to withdraw savings from IRAs without penalty -- and to take a $5,000 tax credit on the purchase of a first home. Real 4 estate has led our economy out of almost every recession we've ever had. And I think it's simple common sense to see how the multiplication of jobs and the settlement and growth of families in your neighborhoods would be a boon to your retail businesses. Next, we must cut the capital gains tax. This tax penalty against homeowners, against farmers, against business owners and investors large and small is cripplingly steep. Our high capital gains taxes are wildly out of line with those in some of the most successful economies of the world. In Japan, when a business founder builds an enterprise for years and then sells it, he pays an effective capital gains tax rate of only 1 percent. Germany imposes no tax on capital gains. Singapore, the economic miracle in Southeast Asia where I visited last month, has no tax on capital gains. I'm asking you to pour extra energy into the drive for cutting our capital gains taxes to reasonable levels. There's a bedrock of support for this. Just a couple of years ago, we came within an eyelash of winning a healthy cut in capital gains taxes. We had bipartisan majorities lined up in both houses of Congress. But our effort ran up against a roadblock -- by a legislative maneuver that thwarted the will of the majority. I won't mince words. Our earlier drive to cut the capital gains tax was stopped by the pure partisan pettiness of the Senate Democratic leader. Lower capital gains taxes should be a permanent feature of our system. But with the economy in recession, we need these tax 5 cuts more urgently than ever. This year, we need a bipartisan coalition in the Congress that no one would dare to stop. With your wholehearted support -- with your fullest efforts to get this message to your community and to your members of Congress - - this year, we'll win. I'm also asking Congress create a new 15 percent investment tax allowance, and to change the alternative minimum tax. This will encourage businesses to accelerate investment and bring people back to work. Those are the short-term measures I've asked Congress to enact. For the longer term, I outlined eight proposals last week in my State of the Union Address. I'd like to highlight three of these for you: We must continue open and expand international markets. I'm working in the GATT talks to conclude a revolutionary new global trade agreement -- to make the world trading system finally come to grips with the damaging tariffs and subsidies in agriculture. And I'm convinced that by tearing down economic barriers with Mexico and Canada, a new North American Free Trade Agreement will lift us to new heights of prosperity. Education is crucial to our long-term economic and social well-being -- and we all know our schools aren't what they should be. Just as competition makes our businesses serve the public, we need competition to revolutionize our schools. By the year 2000, I want all American parents to have real financial freedom to choose where their children attend school. 6 The other long-term focus I want to mention concerns our families. We must ease the burden of child-rearing. The personal tax exemption has not kept up with inflation. In 1948 (?), the personal exemption was set at $---. In 1992 dollars, that exemption would be worth $---. But over the years, we've only increased the exemption to $----. I'm asking Congress immediately to increase the exemption for each child by $500. We can afford this, and it's a meaningful move in the right direction. While you're lighting a fire under Congress to get them to meet my six-week deadline, I'll be busy carrying out some reforms that don't require congressional action. As announced in the State of the Union speech, I've imposed a 90-day freeze on federal regulations that could hinder economic growth. During that freeze period, all departments and agencies will conduct a crash review of all regulations, old and new -- to stop the ones that will hurt growth and speed up those that will help growth. I know how much this concerns you. The schedule of events at this convention tells the story: One of your executive workshops is entitled: "The Regulators Are Back." You're beleaguered by environmental regulations, by food safety regulations, by workplace safety regulations. No one objects to the stated aims of these regulations: Health and safety and respect for the environment are classic, Mom-and-apple pie social values. But you know better than anyone that if regulation is 7 carried to unreasonable extremes, there won't be any apple pie for Mom to buy. I'm here to assure you: The spirit of deregulation is back. Some regulation will always be necessary, but as long as I am President, we'll approach regulation from the understanding that free markets are a fundamental force for good. After seventy years of tragic failure, the leaders in Moscow at last have come around to recognizing this truth about markets. After seven decades of trying to create a utopia through total government regulation of the economy, the Russians are now embracing freedom, opportunity and competition. I find it a bitter irony that some of the powers that be on Capitol Hill still favor government coercion and control over freedom and competition. When I hear the shrill voices of those liberal subcommittee chairmen on Capitol Hill, I do a double take. I wonder what country I'm in, or what year this is. Let me make you a promise: If Congress sends me any new legislation to make economic regulation more intrusive, more burdensome, more unreasonable, I'll send it back with my veto. [Specific bills might be cited here, for instance there is a Waxman FDA enforcement bill that already has been issued a veto threat. ] You can count on me to stop legislation that will set back growth. Meanwhile, I'm counting on you help get my pro-growth programs through Congress. We have less than six weeks to do the job. 8 Free markets work and command economies fail: That's the major lesson of our lifetime. That's the truth that your grandparents understood when they came to our shores to seek a better life. That's the truth that guides our crusade to restore vitality to America's families and neighborhoods and business enterprises. That is the basis on which future generations will carry America to new heights of greatness. # # # copy for Talking Points Speechwriters researchers & THE STATE OF THE UNION: The President hit a home run tonight. He was Presidential, composed, and decisive. He - looked and sounded like the leader of the free world: "The cold war didn't end, it was won." The President separated himself from the pack of pretenders with his vision for the new world order: - "Strength in the pursuit of peace is no. vice; isolationism in the pursuit of security is no virtue. The President demonstrated the same resolve on the economy as he did on the liberation of Kuwait: - "This will not stand." The President's plan had all the elements: - A response to the changing world ($50 billion defense cut); - Help for homebuyers and real estate ($5,000 tax credit, penalty-free withdrawal, deduction for loss on residence) i - Incentives for investment to create jobs (cap gains, investment tax allowance, AMT reform, enterprise zones) i - Tax relief for families (increase in personal exemption, deductability of student loans, flexible IRA, penalty free IRA for medical & education) i - - Investments in the future (R&D, Education, Head Start) Help for those in need (UI benefit extension) ; - Controlling the size of government (Regulatory review, budget freeze, personnel freeze) i - Opening foreign markets (GATT, NAFTA, Enterprise for Americas) ; - - Attacking crime (Crime bill, funds for crimefighting) Dynamic reform proposals (Health care, America 2000, HOPE, tort reform, banking reform, the National Energy Strategy, welfare reform). responsible: Unlike the Democrats' proposals, the President's Plan is - It doesn't violate the budget agreement; - It doesn't raise taxes; - It doesn't cut defense beyond what is reasonable. The - President set a firm deadline for action from Congress: After March 20, "if it must be, the battle is joined." The - President sounded the right confident and hopeful note: "We are still and ever the freest nation on earth, the kindest earth." nation on earth, the strongest nation on Talking Points: THE PRESIDENT'S GROWTH AGENDA: EFFECTS ON THE ECONOMY Economic Growth: * The President's plan will add hundreds of billions of dollars of goods and services to the nation's output over the next five years.1 Jobs: By the end of this year alone, the President's Plan will create 500,000 more jobs than would otherwise be created -- and many more in the years following that. Home Sales: * The President's proposed tax credit of up to $5,000 for first-time homebuyers is itself is projected to enable up to a quarter of a million additional Americans to buy their first home in 1992. Asset Values: Enactment of the President's Plan will increase the value of assets held by Americans, including real estate, by hundreds of billions of dollars. 1 Note: Enactment of the President's Plan would increase the economy's growth rate by 25 percent over the next five years -- adding an average of almost 1/2 of a percentage point per year to the real growth rate of the economy relative to the "business as usual" baseline, which includes the Administration's spending acceleration proposal, reduced income tax witholding proposal, and other administratively discretionary actions. PRESS RELEASE f.V.P.Burh Spuches THE VICE PRESIDENT OFFICE OF THE PRESS SECRETARY FOR RELEASE UPON DELIVERY CONTACT: 202/456-6772 (Expected to be 11:00 a.m. CDT) Wednesday, July 31, 1985 EXCERPTS FROM REMARKS BY VICE PRESIDENT GEORGE BUSH TO THE 1985 ANNUAL CONVENTION OF THE NATIONAL GROCERS ASSOCIATION NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA WEDNESDAY, JULY 31, 1985 It's a pleasure to be here today. Since its founding just three years ago, the National Grocers Association has become a strong force for free enterprise, for the agenda of hope and opportunity in America and for all that's best in American life. One of the great things about our country is that when there's a need, Americans don't just sit around and wait for government to take care of it. Americans roll up their sleeves and go at it themeselves. Well, the NGA has shown that it's part of that great American tradition of neighbor helping neighbor. The NGA has been a significant contributor to national food banking, one of America's great examples both of public-private partnership and of private sector initiative. You, the members of the NGA, have been good neighbors for those in need. And I know how much both the President and I respect you for it. We also think you're just the kinds of friends we want to have when the chips are down. Now, Tom, I'm going to say a few words about tax reform today, and I'd say I was asking for the NGA's support, but I know we already have it. For the NGA, you have already appeared before the Ways and Means Committee to endorse our tax plan. And you've also endorsed another of our important initiatives, the Youth Opportunity Wage. In standing for these, the NGA has, as I said, stood up for growth, for hope and opportunity in America. And so, yes, I'm going to ask you to keep it up, but, for both the President and myself I also want to say to the NGA "thanks." Thanks for standing up with us for America and for the American Dream. -2- The American Dream -- some people used to put it down, say it was an outmoded idea. Well, maybe they'd never stopped to think how remarkable the American Dream is. Sometimes it takes a contrast to get things into perspective. For example, there's a story I've been told has been going around, sort of underground, in the Soviet Union. It has to do with a collective farm. The commissar was visiting, and he grabbed the first fellow who came by and demanded, "How are the crops? How are the potatoes?" "Oh, Sir," the peasant answered, "never better. If the potatoes were put in one pile, they would reach the foot of God." And the commissar said, "Just a minute. This is the Soviet Union. There is no God." And the worker said, "That's all right. This is the Soviet Union. There're no potatoes, either." The American Dream -- taking an idea, making a business out of it, making the business grow, always working to make it a little better, always working in new ideas -- that's what's made America great. That's why America has grown so strong and so productive. That's why there are potatoes in America and not in the Soviet Union. And as for the people who dismiss the American Dream -- well, I just wish they could come here and meet you and see what the American Dream 1S all about. I wish they could see your energy. I wish they could see your determination. Then I bet they'd say the American Dream isn't outmoded. It's alive and well right here in this hall and we plan to keep it that way. We know that in recent years you and small business people like you have created the overwhelming proportion of new jobs in America by some counts in last three years all of the net new jobs. Small business is the engine of growth and creativity in the U.S. economy. It's where the jobs are coming from. It's where many of the new services and new technologies are coming from. It's giving the retail sector new vitality. The entrepreneur, the small business man or woman -- these are the heroes of the new American Renaissance. But an American Renaissance is what we're having. In the last two years the United States has created more new businesses than Europe and Japan combined. And that's why in the last two years the U.S. has also created more new jobs than Europe and Japan combined. America is filled with energy and hope and pride today like no other else place on earth. You can see it everywhere. -3- Remember the Olympics last year? Remember before the Olympics when the torch was carried through the country, and entire towns turned out, lined the way, watched it pass and sang "America the Beautiful" as it went by? You could see it there. You can see it in Hispanic families and Asian families that came to this country with nothing and have shown once more that with hard work and strong values, America is still what it's always been, the land of opportunity. And you can hear it when you talk to young people, in high schools or colleges. They tell you about their dreams of starting a career, starting a family, maybe one day taking a chance, striking out on their own and starting a business. Those young people, those Asian and Hispanic families, those towns all across America -- those are just some of the faces and voices of the American Dream. President Reagan and I are determined to be true to that dream. That's why when we came into office our first priority was to cut taxes, to cut needless regulations, to cut the growth of government spending, and to get government off of the backs of the American people. Not more government, more freedom -- that was our answer. We had heard those who said that America was in decline. But we said that America had not lost its spirit. America was still good and free and proud and brave. All America needed was leaders who put less trust in government and more trust in the American people. And you know, it's as the President says: we knew our policies were working when they stopped calling them Reaganomics. And now we're saying Reaganomics all over again. That's a big part of what the President's tax simplification program is about. We want to lower the top marginal rate again and lower capital gains. These are the two taxes most important to the small businessman, the entrepreneur. We want to do this because the tax code is still like one of those branches that floats down the Mississippi and catches riverboats. It's a drag on all progress. -4- Well, it's time to streamline this great big American boat, to cut that tax debris loose, to start steaming full speed ahead, full speed to more jobs, more new businesses, more hope and more opportunity for all Americans. It's also time to start cutting the deficit out of the Federal budget, and not by raising taxes but by cutting spending. Right now it appears Congress is deadlocked on how to cut spending. Well, I'm sorry to see it. But if Congress can't get the job done, then I'd say it's time to give the President a line-item veto and a balanced budget amendment and let him give Congress a lesson in the courage it takes to cut spending. And, you know, if Ronald Reagan has shown us anything these last few weeks, he's shown us what courage is all about. I want to just say I'm proud to serve with a man like that. I'm proud to serve with a President who stands up for America's values and the American Dream. And while we're at it, let me add, when I go on my trips abroad -- I've been to 64 countries since becoming Vice President -- I can't help thinking I'm proud to serve with a President who doesn't go around apologizing for America. And whenever I come home to America, I always look around and think, "This is the freest country on earth. This is where people come from every corner of the earth to realize dreams for themselves and their families." Whenever I come home, I can't help thinking, "God bless America." #### National Grocers List of Companies Association Main Office THOMAS K. ZAUCHA Key Contacts President and CEO Ukrops 1825 Samuel Morse Drive Jim Ukrop Reston, Virginia 22090 600 South Lake Blvd. (703) 437-5300 Richmond, VA 23236 (804) 379-7300 Butsons Churck Butson 15 N. Court Street P.O. Box 111 Woodsville, NH 03785 (603) 747-2822 Dierbergs Markets Roger Dierberg P.O. Bo 1070 Chesterfield, MO 63006 (314) 532-8884 Pay Less Super Markets Larry Contos P.O. Box 639 33 W. 10th Street Anderson, IN 46015 (317) 649-3526 Bel Air Markets George Wong P.o. Box 13778 1901 Royal Oaks Drive Sacramento, CA 95813 (916) 929-6342 D'Agostino's Nick d'Agostino 2525 Palmer Avenue New Rochelle, NY 10801 (914) 576-1820 Goodings Supermarkets Jim Gooding 483 Montgomery Road Altamonte Springs, FL 32714 (407) 869-8300 Sedano's Super Markets Manuel Herran 9688 S.W. 24th Street Miami, FL 33165 (305) 221-8351 Coborns Dan Coburn P.o. Box 6146 1445 E. HW 23 St. Cloud, MN 56302 (612) 252-4222 Felpausch Foods Don Lawrence 127 S. Michigan Avenue Hastings, MI 49058 (616) 945-33485 Easter Enterprises Dennis Easter P.O. box 1351 Des Moines, IA 50305 (515) 265-1116 Ray's Sentry Markets Ray Nidiffer P.O. Box 730 615 5th Street Brookings, OH 97415 (503) 469-3113 Dahl's Foods/Foods, Inc. Bob Hand 4343 Merle Hay Road Des Moines, IA 50310-1411 (515) 278-1657 Randalls Food Markets P.O. Box 4506 3663 Briarpark Houston, TX 77210 Randall Onstead (703) 268-3500 Rouse Supermarkets, Inc. Don Rouse P.O. Box 5358 107 Camelia Drive Thibodaux, LA 70302 (504) 447-5998 10th Anniversary Celebration! Partners in Performance RETAILERS WHOLESALERS MANUFACTURERS 10 1992 N.G.A. Convention & Buying/Merchandising Expo Orlando, Florida February 2-5, 1992 NATIONAL GROCERS ASSOCIATION CELEBRATE N.G.A.'S 10TH ANNIVERSARY! ATTEND THE ONLY NATIONAL CONVENTION/EXHIBITION FOR RETAILERS AND THEIR WHOLESALE PARTNERS VISIT MORE THAN 450 COMPANIES EXHIBITING IN OVER 100 PRODUCT AND SERVICE PROGRAM AT A GLANCE CATEGORIES LEARN MORE FROM FOUR DAYS OF EDUCATIONAL PROGRAMMING, 42 WORKSHOPS, AND SPECIAL EVENTS ENJOY EXCITING, BALMY ORLANDO! SUNDAY MONDAY TUESDAY SATURDAY FEBRUARY 2 FEBRUARY 3 FEBRUARY 4 EDNESDAY FEBRUARY 1 FEBRUARY 5 7:00 7:15-8:15 7:15-8:15 7:15-8:00 "Breakfast Club" "Breakfast Club" Continental Breakfast Workshops Workshops 8:00 8:00-9:30 8:00-9:15 Early Bird Session Workshop Series C "Excellence in 8:30-10:00 8:30-10:00 9:00 Merchandising" Workshop Series A Workshop Series B 9:00-Closing Preconvention 9:30-11:00 10:00 Discount Closing 10:00-11:30 Admissions Convention to Opening General Brunch 10:15-11:30 Session Disney 10:00-2:00 11:00 General Session World's Exhibit Hall Open Magic 11:30-12:30 Lunch on Exhibit 11:00-Closing Kingdom, 11:30-1:00 12:00 Opening Brunch Floor Postconvention EPCOT, Grocers-PEC Discount MGM, Luncheon Admission Pleasure to 1:00 Island, Disney and World's Sea 12:45-4:00 Magic 2:00 World. Exhibit Hall Grand 1:00-4:30 Kingdom, Opening Exhibit Hall Open EPCOT, 2:15-3:45 MGM, 3:00 General Session Pleasure Island, and 4:00-5:00 4:00-5:00 4:00-4:30 4:00 Sea Best Bagger Best Bagger Best Bagger Finals World. Prelim I Prelim II 5:00 4:30-6:30 4:00-7:00 Hospitality Suites Hospitality Suites 6:00 6:30-7:30 5:00-9:00 6:30-7:30 Asparagus Club Hospitality Suites Chairmans's 7:00 Reception Reception 8:00 7:30-10:00 7:30-10:00 Chairman's "10th Asparagus Club Anniversary Gala" Banquet 9:00 9:00-12:00 10:00 Dessert Party 11:00 RETAILERS WHOLESALERS MANUFACTURERS Welcome, Partners, to N.G.A.'s 10th Anniversary Celebration! 700 1992 N.G.A. Convention & Buying/Merchandising Expo Orlando, Florida February 2-5, 1992 Historically, the N.G.A. annual convention has been the industry's only showcase of the partnership between the retailer and wholesaler in conjunction with their manufacturer/suppliers. With the very survival of the industry today dependent upon increasing retail and wholesale operational and marketing performance and manufacturer support, strengthening that partnership is essential. The "Partners in Performance" program at the N.G.A. 1992 Convention and 10th Anniversary Celebration will address the major forces of change - in industry operations, governmental relations, and economic trends - - that are having a critical impact on the independent sector of the industry. Your 1992 N.G.A. convention will address these critical issues: The New Competitors: The wholesale clubs, Walmart and K- Mart. Controlling their bite. Class of Trade, Deals and Allowances, Coupon Chargebacks: Achieving industry compliance and parity. The Competitive Team of the '90s: Building wholesale/retail relationships. Will the merger/acquisition trend continue? What are the implications? William Confer Taking full advantage of new product introductions and emerging new departments Vice President, Wholesale and profit centers. Roundy's, Inc. Applying New Technology: A competitive edge--interdependent use of electronic President marketing. Scot Lad Foods, Inc. Will the European invasion continue? Milwaukee, WI N.G.A. Board Chairman Integrated Merchandising: The key to optimizing performance. Flat Sales in a Flat Economy: When will the recession end? Will investment capital become more readily available? What changes can we expect in government tax policy to generate growth? Implications of the '92 Elections: More demands for mandated benefits, or real change? Stemming the tide of unbridled union picketing power. Your N.G.A. convention will address these issues through three power-packed general sessions, 42 hands-on workshops, a major exhibition by 450 leading companies covering 100 products and service categories, and by special events such as G-Trends, "Excellence in Merchandising," "Green Street," "New Product Panorama," store tours, and much more. But the N.G.A. convention is more than an educational experience. It will be held in an exciting convention location in Orlando, Florida, recognized as the nation's number one resort city. The convention will provide an excellent setting in first-class hotels for socializing, networking, meeting old friends and making new friends, fun, and relaxation. At the convention, you will be exposed to an around-the-clock schedule of exciting, world-class Thomas K. Zaucha entertainment and banquet experiences plus an exciting pre/postconvention vacation program. N.G.A. President and CEO By joining N.G.A. in Orlando, you'll also be joining thousands of your fellow retailers, wholesalers, and manufacturers/suppliers as N.G.A. assembles an unforgettable combination of programming, people, products, and luxurious convention locale. Come celebrate N.G.A.'s 10th Anniversary in Orlando, partners! Bill Confer Jon zaucha GENERAL SESSIONS - The "Big Picture" of the forces of change impacting the grocery industry and your business unfolds in three power-packed N.G.A.'s Star General Session experiences. Industry operations (Competing against the Performers clubs and mass merchandisers), government (The '92 elections), and CONVENTION HIGHLIGHTS economic trends (Is real recovery in sight?), what they mean to you, and how you can respond to build sales, profits, and efficiency. WORKSHOPS - Next, zero in from the "Big Picture" to 42 hands-on workshops offering operational information, ideas, and innovations on the hottest topics. See complete listing for further information. EXHIBIT - Then, experience the N.G.A. Buying/Merchandising Expo, the latest innovations and greatest products, promotions, and services in over 100 product, equipment, and service categories by visiting 450 leading exhibiting companies. 10TH ANNIVERSARY GALA - Join N.G.A. in celebration of our exciting 10th Anniversary. Enjoy the "Chairman's Gala Banquet," four-star entertainment, and other celebration surprises. Ray Charles ASPARAGUS CLUB RECEPTION AND BANQUET - Enjoy a magical evening with legendary song stylist Tony Bennett and ever popular comedian Norm Crosby. DESSERT PARTY - Kick off your shoes for another N.G.A. tradition music by the Stingrays, dancing to Rockin' Robin's band, and the sweetest treats and the fun and entertainment of the ever popular Bowzer's Rock 'N' Roll Party. "EXCELLENCE IN MERCHANDISING" PROGRAM - Kick off the convention with the 1992 "Excellence in Merchandising" competition presentations, the culmination of the past year's best in merchandising in 13 different categories. See and learn about 39 proven display merchandising successes that you can use for your business today. Tony Bennett G-TRENDS - The grocery industry, up close and statistical. This will be a comprehensive analysis of the most critical economic, operational, and demographic trends impacting the independent sector. NEW PRODUCT PANORAMA - More than 10,000 new items hit the street last year. Who are the winners and losers? What new categories and departments hold a key to your future bottom line? "GREEN STREET" - Stroll through an indoor park-like setting in the main exhibit hall that enhances the latest environmental/health products and services and the best retail "green" ads and promotions. BREAKFAST CLUBS - Informative, involving breakfast workshops offer the chance to start your day with an expert presenter on topics of interest to you Norm Crosby and your business. STORE TOURS - Visit the best of the "Sunshine State's" high-performance retail formats. BEST BAGGER CONTEST - The "Super Bowl" of Bagging. This dynamic national annual competition crowns a winning state representative as "Best Bagger." The national finals pit state winners in competition for the national championship. "THE ORLANDO EXPERIENCE" - Take advantage of special N.G.A. pre/ and postconvention discount programs and experience the Orlando area's topnotch theme parks, entertainment, and vacation facilities. RESORT HOTELS - Accommodations at four first-class hotels are available in the heart of Orlando's resort area. Bowzer's Rock 'N' Roll Dessert Party DISCOUNT AIRFARES and CAR RENTALS - Get additional savings for airfares and car rentals. Workshop Schedule CODING KEY Always comprehensive. Always concrete. Operations = = O Always operational. This is the 1992 N.G.A. Human Resources/Management Development = = H Customer Relations/Service = C Convention Workshop Series - a practical Advertising/Merchandising = A "hands-on" educational experience designed for Executive Management/Financial = E literally every player on the food industry team. Technology = = T Retailer Wholesaler C-Store Operator Manufacturer SERIES A: 8:30am-10:00am, Monday, February 3, 1992 CODE E Introduction to Entrepreneurial Institute (Restricted to Retailers) H Motivating Employees in Tough Economic Times > > C Knowing Your Customer: New Approaches to a Timeless Need - - H The Union Picket: A Power Tool Against Grocers - E/C The Plastic Card in the Supermarket: A Service Whose Time Has Come - E/C Creating An Environmentally Friendly Image - - > E/A Integrated Marketing: Achieving Maximum Access to Promotions and Allowances - - > O A Level Playing Field at the Gas Pump - E Competing Against Price Competition: Strategies for Differentiation - A Excellence in Merchandising: Meet the Winners ' 1 < E New Store Development and Remodels in Recessionary Times - T Integrating Electronic Transactions into Your Front-end Operations T/O SHRINK TRAX: Front-End Shrink Control Program that Guarantees Results - O Candy: The Sales and Profit Accelerator - O Environmental Challenges at the Warehouse and Transportation Level O Beef Profitability: A New Computer Program - ' E Competing with the Clubs and Mass Merchandisers - ERIES B: 8:30am-10:00am, Tuesday, February 4, 1992 O Prepared Foods: Creating a Restaurant Image in a Supermarket Environment - - E Entrepreneurial Institute Alumni: Post Graduate Support H Quality Employees: The Ultimate Competitive Advantage H Health Care Costs: An Exclusive Cost Containment > T/C The Frequent Shopper: Defining and Keeping the Customer - O Produce: High Image, High Traffic, and High Profit O Seafood: The Outlook, Trends, and Concerns for the '90s O Non-Foods: Responding to New Competitors O Bakery: Creating the Excitement and Enthusiasm for Great Sales and Profits O Deli: Eight New Tested Ideas to Build Sales E Competing with the Clubs: A Winning Proposition E Public Responses to Sensitive Issues - O Orienting Part-Timers: A New N.G.A./Cornell Training Tool H Staffing the Meat Department of the '90s ' H Employee Theft Control: Managing Involuntary Employee Salary Supplements > E Wholesale Margins: The Economic Reality > - - < E Changing Formats: A Competitive Tool 1 SERIES C: 8:00am-9:15am, Wednesday, February 5, 1992 E Introduction to Entrepreneurial Institute (Restricted to Wholesalers) ' E OSHA Inspectors: The Regulators Are Back - ' - < T Developing and Refining Your Retail Automation Plan - < < H Hiring the Handicapped: A Realistic Approach to the Shrinking Labor Market - - 1 - E The Overstored Market: Too Many Pieces of the Pie - ' - O Red Meat in the '90s: How Do We Compete? - E How to Finance When the Bank Forgets Your Name > - - T The UPC Symbol: Improving the Integrity > Please check the program on site. Changes may occur. More than 450 companies will display their latest products and services in over 100 categories PRODUCT CATEGORIES EXHIBITS 100 Accounting Services Equipment: Food Service YOU Advertising Services Equipment: Ice Makers/ ORLANDO Automotive Supplies Machines Baby Care Products Equipment: Label & Bags: Paper/Plastic/Canvas Packaging Bakery Goods Equipment: Leasing Banking Services- Equipment: Lighting Consumer Equipment: Material Baseball/Trading Cards Handling Baskets Equipment: Meat Dept. Batteries Equipment: Miscellaneous Beer & Ale Equipment: Ovens Beverages Equipment: Racks Books & Printed Material Equipment: Recycling Bottled Water Equipment: Refrigeration Bulk Foods Equipment: Sanitation Candy & Nuts Equipment: Scales Cards: Greeting/Holiday Equipment: Shelving Cereals Equipment: Signs Check Cashing Systems Equipment: Tanks Cheese Equipment: Warehousing Coffee/Cocoa/Tea Flowers & Supplies Ice Cream & Frozen Pest Control Products Security: Locks & Safes Communication Systems Food Banks Desserts Pet Food & Supplies Shipping Services Computer Software/ Food Protection Services Infant Food Pharmaceuticals Shopping Carts Distributors Foods: Canned Insurance Photo Snack Foods Computer Software/Retail Foods: Cookies & Crackers Inventory Systems Pizza Products Soft Drinks Condiments Foods: Health Jewelry Plastics Spirits Consultants: Analysis & Foods: Kosher Lawn & Garden Point-of-Sale Systems Temporary Services Research Foods: Microwaveable Light Bulbs Poultry Tobacco Products Consultants: Advertising/ Foods: Specialty Meat: Fresh and Private Label/Generics Toys & Games Merchandising Frozen Food Prepared Produce: Fruit & Trade Publications Consultants: Design/ Fruit Juices Milk Vegetable Transportation: Vehicles Engineering Glassware Mineral Waters Promotional Packaging Uniforms Consultants: Management/ Gourmet Specialty Foods Nonfoods Promotions: Incentives Video: Rentals & Services Training Government Agencies Over-the-Counter Rice Vitamins Health & Beauty Aids Medicine Salads: Prepared Wine & Wine Coolers Coupon Redemption Credit Cards/Check Credit Hosiery Paper Products Seafood Yogurts Dairy Products Housewares Personnel/Executive Seasonal/Holiday Items Deli Products Search Designers: Store Interiors/ Exteriors Dinnerware Disposable Items: Cutlery Dry Grocery EDI: Network Services EDI: Software Educational Programs/ Materials Electronic Funds Transfer Employee Testing Programs Equipment: Bakery Equipment: Beverage Equipment: Broilers Equipment: Cabinets Equipment: Cash Registers Equipment: Climate Control Equipment: Computer Equipment: Deli/Fast Food Equipment: Display Cases Equipment: Distribution Equipment: Doors Equipment: Fixtures The Orange County Convention/Civic Center will display 150,000 gross square feet of exhibit space for the N.G.A. Buying/ Equipment: Flooring/Care Merchandising Expo. ORLANDO Goforthe Nagie Vineland Rd. Major Blvd Universal Studios EXIT 30B N EXIT 30A American Way Kirkman Road 4 Wet 'n Wild Carrier Drive HOTELS Canada Ave EXIT 29 1992 CONVENTION HOTELS 2 528 Sand Lake Road Visitor Information Center/Mercado Please use the enclosed reservation breakfast, lunch, or dinner; and The Jamaican Court form to register at these hotels or call Marmalade Tree, a snack and ice International Drive N.G.A. at 703-437-5300 for more cream shop located at the east pool. information. 3 Clarion Plaza Hotel Turkey Lake Road Republic Drive 1 The Peabody Orlando 9700 International Drive 1 (N.G.A. Convention Headquarters) Orlando, FL 32819-8114 3 Hawaiian Court 9801 International Drive Orange County Room Rate: Convention/Civic Center Orlando, FL 32819 Single $79 Double $79 EXIT 28 Beeline Expressway Room Rate: The Clarion Plaza is Orlando's Single $151 Double $151 To Airport newest convention hotel and is EXIT Hwy. 528 The Peabody Orlando is across the dedicated to offering Orlando's best 27A 4 street from the 430,000-square-foot convention value. Sea World Orlando/Orange County Convention The Clarion Plaza is next to the Walt Disney World' Resort Westwood Blvd EXIT Center, only 15 minutes away from Orlando/Orange County Convention 27A Walt Disney World's Magic Kingdom Center, two miles from Sea World, six and EPCOT Center, and just five miles from Walt Disney World and minutes from Sea World. EPCOT Center, and 15 miles (30 The Peabody is 15 miles (30 minutes) Minutes) from Orlando International from the Orlando International Airport. Airport. For dining and entertainment at the For dining and entertainment the AIRLINE AND CAR RENTAL Peabody Orlando, Dux offers Clarion Plaza has five restaurants DISCOUNTS American cuisine in an intimate and lounges which range from setting, Capriccio specializes in elaborate buffets to casual take-out Northern Italian food, Bee Line Diner and live entertainment in the is an authentic fifties-style eatery and Backstage Lounge. Delta and United Airlines, in Frequent flyers receive full credit. deli carry-out. arrangement with the National Remember, some fares have 4 Stouffer Orlando Resort Grocers Association, offer a minimum restrictions and seats may be limited, 2 Orlando Marriott 6677 Sea Harbour Drive of 40% OFF regular coach fares or so call early for your reservations. 8001 International Drive Orlando, FL 32821-8092 5% OFF any published promotional Orlando, FL 32819-9312 fare. Certain restrictions may apply. CAR RENTAL DISCOUNT Room Rate: Room Rate: Single $145 Double $145 To make reservations for any Avis is offering special discounted Single $99 Double $115 discounted fares, call the airlines rates on rental cars for the 1992 A luxurious resort with a unique 10- Triple $125 Quad $135 TOLL FREE at the phone numbers N.G.A. Convention & Buying/ story atrium lobby, the Stouffer Hospitality Suite $250 listed below and be sure to give them Merchandising Expo. To receive the Orlando Resort is a relaxing retreat 1-BD Exec. Suite $350 the corresponding file/I.D. number: special rate, simply call Avis at 1-800- situated on 23 lush acres in the heart 2-BD Exec. Suite $450 331-1600. Be sure to mention the of Orlando. DELTA AIRLINES special Avis Worldwide Discount The Orlando Marriott is a 48-acre The Stouffer Orlando Resort is only 1-800-241-6760 (AWD) No. W022301. landscaped property with three one mile from the Orlando/Orange 8 a.m. to 11 p.m. EST, Daily tropical swimming pools, four lighted The discount rates are as follows: County Convention Center, 15 miles File No.: PO227 tennis courts, tree-lined jogging trails, (30 minutes) from the Orlando CAR GROUPS DAILY WEEKLY and a new health club. International Airport, adjacent to Sea UNITED AIRLINES Subcompact, 2-dr. $22.90 $ 89 The Orlando Marriott is just down the World, and minutes to Walt Disney 1-800-521-4041 Subcompact, 4-dr. $23.90 $ 95 road from the Orlando/Orange World and EPCOT Center. 7 a.m. to 1 a.m. EST, Daily Compact, 2-dr. $24.90 $ 99 County Convention Center (only 1 1/2 For dining and entertainment, Trade I.D. No.: 515FJ Compact, 4-dr. $25.90 $109 miles) and only 15 miles to the Intermediate $29.90 $129 Winds is a perfect spot for all-day Orlando International Airport, Walt Both airlines can arrange to mail Full Size, 2-dr. $31.90 $139 family dining, Haifeng offers authentic Disney World, and EPCOT Center. tickets to your home or office. You or Full Size, 4-dr. $31.90 $149 Chinese cuisine in a traditional your travel agent may make your The Marriott's dining and oriental restaurant, and Atlantis is reservations directly with the airline Unlimited free mileage is included entertainment includes The Grove known for contemporary favorites but you must call the special toll free in these rates. There is no drop Restaurant, which offers elegant served with vintage wines. number above and indicate the charge at Avis in Florida. Rates are candlelight dinners; the Chelsea appropriate file/I.D. number. good one week before to one week Cafe, a casual dining experience for after the convention. (Free shuttle bus service to Convention Center.) QUICK REFERENCE GUIDE To register or request more information, please contact the National Grocers Association, 1825 Samuel Morse Drive, Reston, Virginia 22090-5317 Ph: (703) 437-5300 FAX (703) 437-7768 Hotel Reservations Deadline: January 8, 1992 Airline Discounts Delta Airlines: (800) 241-6760 File #PO227 United Airlines: (800) 521-4041 I.D. #515FJ Car Rental Discount Avis: (800) 331-1600 AWD #W022301 N.G.A. Future Convention Dates Mark Your Calendar Now! February 7-10, 1993 San Francisco, CA February 14-17, 1994 Atlanta, GA February 5-8, 1995 San Diego, CA MEMORANDUM TO: Speechwriters and Researchers From: Fay Hung, Research Intern Date: 3 February 1992 RE: Bush plan to create new jobs. Information which may be helpful for future speeches: The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) is very pleased with President Bush's economic proposal. The NAHB predicts that if the bill is passed, it will lead to the creation of 415,000 construction industry jobs as well as $20 billion in new economic activity associated with home building according to Kent Colton, the executive vice president. At the Las Vegas, Nevada, convention for the NAHB this past weekend, 63% said they expected housing starts to improve this year. They also rated the nation's economic prospects for this year at 3.4 on a scale of 5, with 5 being excellent. A year ago they graded its prospects at 2.8. Furthermore, after the State of the Union Speech, the NAHB changed its forecast for 1992 home construction to 1.4 million units from about 1.2 units. Although things are looking up for home builders, banks will also have to loosen up lending to builders or else a shortage of new homes could send prices on a rapid, steep climb. For more details, please refer to the attached article. The Washington Post SATURDAY. FEBRUARY 1. 1992 Brighter Outlook Seen for Housing Bush's Plan Buoys Builders, Economists convention poll, 63 percent said they it's picking up-the number is going He added that some buyers may By William F. Powers Washington Post Staff Writer expected housing starts to improve to dwindle quickly." wait until Congress passes the tax this year, compared with just 17 per- If banks don't loosen up lending to credit before moving to purchase a Economists and home building ex- cent in a January 1991 poll. And builders, a shortage of new homes first home. This may cause what one perts predict the rest of the year will they rated the nation's economic could send prices on a rapid, steep economist called an "air pocket" in bring improved home sales, moder- prospects for this year at 3.4 on a climb, lending industry officials said. the market during the next month or ately rising prices and steady mort- scale of 5. with 5 being excellent. A Without an easing of the credit two. gage rates in the wake of President year ago they graded its prospects Bush's sweeping proposals to revive at 2.8. crunch allowing builders to acceler- But Lasko suggested that the gap the nation's dormant housing mar- After the president's State of the ate land acquisition and develop- might later be offset by buyers mov- ket. Union speech Tuesday, the NAHB ment, "we could very easily see new ing planned 1993 purchases into this There are a few wild cards that changed its forecast for 1992 home home prices rising at a double-digit year to take advantage of the tax could alter this scenario, but for the construction to 1.4 million units [percentage] pace," Berson said, credit. As proposed, the credit moment the prognosticators are up- from about 1.2 million units, adding, however, that Fannie Mae's would cover only first-time pur- beat, saying it will be an improved predictions assume more liberal chases made during 1992. year for a variety of people-build- lending this year. Another problem is that unless an ers, real estate brokers and buyers "If you look at this Mortgage rates, the other key arrangement is found for first-time alike-as the market slowly wakes factor in consumer decisions on home buyers to obtain their tax- up from its long, troubled sleep. as a window of home-buying, will hold basically credit money, or its equivalent, at The Bush proposals are premised on an idea that was the mantra of last weekend's convention of the opportunity for steady this year, according to econo- the time they are likely to need it mists and mortgage lenders. most-when they actually buy a National Association of Home Build- Robert Van Order, chief econo- house-the credit could prove less ers (NAHB) in Las Vegas: residen- home affordability, mist for the Federal Home Loan stimulative to the market than the tial construction has lifted the Unit- it's not closing Mortgage Corp. (Freddie Mac), said administration might like. ed States out of economic slumps the average national rate for 30-year The MBA's Peach said sellers and before, and it will do so again. rapidly." fixed-rate mortgages will probably builders might consider working out The president said it-"I believe not exceed 9 percent this year. a second mortgage for the $5,000, that housing, home-building, will - David Berson, Others agreed with Van Order, to be paid back in two installments lead the recovery"-in a live video Fannie Mae chief economist but Richard W. Peach, deputy chief when the tax credits come in, but chat with the leaders of the trade group, who echoed those sentiments according to Kent Colton, the associ- economist for the Mortgage Bankers only if Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Association of America (MBA), said change their rules to allow this. themselves over and over. ation's executive vice president. The Then in his State of the Union ad- NAHB also predicted that the Bush "it's quite possible" rates could rise The NAHB's Colton said "the dress Tuesday, Bush bet money on plan, if passed, will lead to the cre- to more than 9 percent if the eco- market will figure out a way, at least the idea, with his proposals for a ation of 415,000 construction indus- nomic recovery is strong in the sec- for the first $2,500 of that, to cash $5,000 tax credit, stretched out try jobs, and $20 billion in new eco- ond half of the year. that through. Builders will cer- over two years, for Americans buy- nomic activity associated with home Did the rates hit bottom in early tainly work with [buyers] creative- ing their first home in 1992; penalty- building. January, when the national average ly." free withdrawals from individual re- So things are looking up for home tirement accounts for first-time buy- builders. For consumers, the ques- for 30-year fixed-rate loans was at The MBA's Mozilo said in a state- ers; and a tax law change that appar- tion is what will happen to home 8.25 percent? ment this week: "A tax credit, while prices and mortgage rates for the The chief executive of one of the valuable, will take time to implement ently would allow homeowners who and a method will need to be devel- sell their houses at a loss to take a rest of the year. nation's largest mortgage lenders, deduction on it according to a com- Here again, the analysts offered Angelo R. Mozilo of California-based oped to turn the credit into upfront plex formula. good news. "If you look at this as a Countrywide Funding Corp., thinks money that cash-poor families need." Bush's proposals, which still have window of opportunity for home af- so. Mozilo, who also heads the MBA, to be approved by Congress, are just fordability, it's not closing rapidly," said at the Las Vegas builders' con- the kind of help the building industry said David Berson, chief economist has been lobbying for in recent for the Federal National Mortgage clave that rates will not go down to months. Association (Fannie Mae). that level again in this cycle. When about 60,000 builders con- Prices for new and existing homes "I think that will probably prove to vened in Nevada last week, they had are likely to rise this year, but prob- be the bottom," said Fannie Mae's reason to feel gloomy, having just ably not precipitously, according to Berson. He and other economists come off their worst year since industry officials. Seventy percent of said there might be another dip, but 1946. For four days, they gathered those surveyed in the Las Vegas poll not to less than 8.25 percent. in standing-room-only crowds for said the new houses they build will Perhaps the key factor in the di- seminars on the economic outlook increase in price, with an average rection of the housing market for the and how to survive the current scar- expected increase of 6.5 percent. city of bank loans for construction. Berson this week predicted 1992 rest of this year is whether the Bush "It's a real hard, cold world," one price jumps of about 4 percent for proposals will have their intended ef- builder told a panel of economists existing homes and about 6 percent fect. discussing the credit crunch. for new homes. "I think the president's proposals But the economists said the indus- The new home prices are likely to will have a modest stimulative effect try had nowhere to go but up- go up more, Berson said, because on home purchases over the next "1992 almost has to be a better the inventory of new unsold homes few months," said Warren Lasko, year," one told them-and Bush is very small, "and once demand MBA executive vice president. promised he would help. starts picking up-and it looks like The builders were cheered. In a See HOUSING, E11, Col. 1