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Originally Processed With FOIA(s): FOIA Number: S S FOIA MARKER This is not a textual record. This is used as an administrative marker by the George Bush Presidential Library Staff. Record Group/Collection: George H.W. Bush Presidential Records Collection/Office of Origin: Speechwriting, White House Office of Series: Speech File Backup Files Subseries: Chron File, 1989-1993 OA/ID Number: 13824 Folder ID Number: 13824-002 Folder Title: Reagan Alumni 7/29/92 [OA 7577] Stack: Row: Section: Shelf: Position: G 26 22 6 7 Johns/ Draft one July 24, 1992 PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS FOR REAGAN ALUMNI Wednesday July 29, 1992 OEOB Room 450, 5pm Thank you, and welcome to all you. What a pleasure to see so many old friends. (Acknowledgements). You know, since Ronald Reagan left the White House, one thing is noticeably absent from our cabinet room: no jar full of jelly beans. I remember how President Reagan would often say that "you can tell a lot about a fella's character by whether he picks out all of one color or just grabs a handful." / /Well, if we had that jar back in the White House today, I guess Bill Reilly would like the greens and Dick Cheney would hate the reds. // once again with all of you Seriously, back in this room, I'm reminded that the crusade we began together in November 1980 still lives. They call it the Reagan Revolution, and let me be clear: I believed then, and I still believe, in this revolution. And as I look around this room, I see the architects of some of our country's most spectacular victories: the rebirth of the American economy from the doldrums of the 1970s, the victory over communism and the reinvigoration of our nation's defense, and -- perhaps most important -- the restoration of America's national pride and purpose. Grand accomplishments -- each of them. 2 tate 10's And a lot of credit must go to the man who put us on this course of revival, one of our country's most beloved, most (2) spectacular leaders: Ronald Reagan. ( befave Ronald Reagan's averagl: Think back a bit to the world we faced in 1980: gas lines, a devastating combination of double-digit inflation and 79, what unemployment P9340 called stagflation -- that was eating at the 80 else wallets of the American people. ? Economic mismanagement, social eccumically w liberalism -- all these things were tearing apart the American family and tearing apart our nation. socially? And, across our great country, something even worse was happening: We were quickly losing faith in America's future -- and the Democrats were showing us that our fears were not without justification, that there was no reason to believe things would improve. Liberalism told us to prepare for the worst -- that America was on the way down. And then, of course, there was the frightening global J situation: A Soviet Union on the march; the rise of hostile, totalitarian regimes in virtual every area of the globe: Afghanistan, Iran, Nicaragua. It was a world where terrorists stormed American embassies, and held American officials for months -- as the Democrats' defense and foreign policy establishment sat paralyzed with fear and with indecision. Bleak days that I'm sure we'd all like to forget. But we all know what happened next. Enter the Gipper. Ronald Reagan brought us new vigor and hope. He sent the liberals packing. And then, with wide support from the American people, he 3 instituted his winning, conservative values -- his unblinking belief in the abilities of ordinary Americans, his healthy skepticism of government's ability to solve every problem everywhere, and his conviction that, if government got out of the way, there was nothing that we could not achieve as Americans. And then came our 40th president's challenge to the Soviet Union. Correctly, Mr. Reagan looked at the Soviet Union, its persecution of the religious, its invasion and occupation of foreign lands, its denial of fundamental rights and liberties -- and he said that a regime that did these things was, indeed, an evil empire. And then he went still further. He said that evil would not stand. He challenged Moscow to choose between the forces of liberty and those of tyranny. With your support, we backed up our rhetoric with the force that was needed to prevail -- we countered the Warsaw Pact, which was preparing for World War III; we sent aid to freedom fighters from Afghanistan to Angola; and we let the forces of liberation know: Your cause is our cause. We stand with you in the trenches against tyranny. Who can forget Reagan's challenge at Brandenburg Gate: "Mr. Gorbachev, open this gate. Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall. " With this challenge, we knew that the correlation of forces had changed forever. Communism was now on the run; and liberty was on the march. With guns and tanks we defended Western Europe, but with words -- the power of ideas and the promise of freedom -- we liberated that continent's eastern half. 4 Without Ronald Reagan, and without many of you here today who believed in his vision, these changes would never have occured. And this is why, when I was running for president in 1988 and my opponent called for change, I was quick to remind him: Sir, we are the change. And, you know what, we're still the change. The values that brought us to Washington in 1980 -- a rejection of tax-and-spend economics, support for the American family and its values, a belief in the ingenuity of ordinary Americans, an understanding of the importance of God in our lives, and an unswerving support for a strong America -- these are the enduring values that continue to guide our crusade. And these are the values I continue to embrace. So, let me congratulate you on the historic contributions that all of you have made to our great nation. Keep up your important efforts. Together, our revolution will continue. Thank you all very much. Johns/Gershowitz Draft two July 27, 1992 PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS FOR REAGAN ALUMNI Wednesday July 29, 1992 OEOB Room 450, 5pm Thank you, and welcome to all you. What a pleasure to see so many old friends. [Acknowledgements]. You know, since Ronald Reagan left the White House, one thing is noticeably absent from our cabinet room: no jar full of jelly beans. I remember how President Reagan would often say that "you can tell a lot about a fella's character by whether he picks out all of one color or just grabs a handful." / /Well, if we had that jar back in the White House today, I guess Bill Reilly would like the greens and Dick Cheney would hate the reds./ / Seriously, back once again with all of you, I'm reminded X that the crusade we began together in November 1980 still lives. They call it the Reagan Revolution, and Nlet Mike me be JOHNS clear: I believed then, and I still believe, in this revolution. And as I look around this room, I see the architects of some of our country's most spectacular victories: the rebirth of the American economy from the doldrums of the 1970s, the victory over communism and the reinvigoration of our nation's defense, and -- perhaps most important -- the restoration of America's national pride and purpose. Grand accomplishments -- each of them. 2 And a lot of credit must go to the man who put us on this course of revival, one of our country's most beloved, most spectacular leaders: Ronald Reagan. As I look back on my decades of public service, there were thousands of men and women I encountered who worked tirelessly to strengthen our country. But there is one thing I will never forget: being at Ronald Reagan's side as he fought -- often against the odds -- to strengthen America and bring us a spirit of renewal and hope. Ronald Reagan reminded Americans that we live in the greatest of countries -- what he was fond of calling Mille cunt's "a shining city on a hill," and he challenged Americans to reach JOHNS for higher and higher levels of greatness. And, inspired by his neaspeen leadership, they answered his call. Last November, out in Simi Valley, California, we dedicated iN Curt's the Reagan library. I recalled then how Ronald Reagan often would 11-a1speech be impressed by Americans whose stories and achievements had inspired him. Many times, he would write out letters in longhand Lincunts to these men and women, then ask that they be retyped so that the SIF91 recipients could read them. I always viewed this as a sign that neagaw Ronald Reagan's motivation as president -- and his love for his job -- came not from his awesome powers, not from mingling with the powerful and the rich -- but from his contact with the ordinary citizens of a country he loved. You know, sometimes -- especially in the heat of a political year -- it's easy to forget how far we've come. Think back a bit to the world we faced before Ronald Reagan's arrival in 3 Washington: gas lines, a devastating combination of double-digit inflation and unemployment -- called stagflation -- that was eating at the wallets of the American people, and crippling interest rates. Economic mismanagement, social liberalism -- all these things were tearing apart the American family and tearing apart our nation. And then, of course, there was the frightening global situation: A Soviet Union on the march; the rise of hostile, totalitarian regimes in virtually every area of the globe: Afghanistan, Iran, Nicaragua. It was a world where terrorists stormed American embassies, then held American officials for months -- as the Democrats' defense and foreign policy establishment sat paralyzed with fear and with indecision. Bleak days that I'm sure we'd all like to forget. And at the same time - across our great country -- something even worse was happening: We were quickly losing faith in America's future -- and the Democrats were showing us that our fears were not without justification. Liberalismitold us to x prepare for the worst -- that America was on the way down. Mixe JOLNS But we all know what happened next. Enter the Gipper. Ronald Reagan brought us new vigor and hope. He sent the liberals packing. And then, with wide support from the American people, he instituted his winning, conservative values -- his unblinking faith in the abilities of ordinary Americans, his appointment of judges who had respect for the original meaning of our Constitution, BASE Year 4 and his conviction that, if government got out of the way, there was nothing that we could not achieve as Americans. Chris Frenze 202-224-0373 Today, as we look back on Ronald Reagan's presciptions, one thing is clear: they worked On the economic front, just look at Bef. 182 +0'89 V85 using annual AV MediAN the numbers: More than 20 million new jobs created. Family and JoiNt ECONOMIC COMM About household incomes boosted to record highs. And, no matter how much the critics try to distort this record, we need to be honest in acknowledging that the gains did were not shared flow exclusively byail EXPaNSiON бед. to of the society rich -- all of America benefited. During the Reagan years, the bottom 20 percent of income earners saw their incomes climb 12 Middle American (Middle 20% percent to record levels. And middle income family incomes rose 13 percent. The Reagan record will forever show this fact: Reaganomics sparked the longest peacetime period of prolonged economic growth in our country's history. No liberal spin -- no partisan posturing -- can alter that fact. JOING ECON COMM Chris Frenze And then, of course, came our 40th president's challenge to the Soviet Union. Correctly, Mr. Reagan looked at the Soviet Union, its persecution of the religious, its invasion and occupation of foreign lands, its denial of fundamental rights X and liberties -/ and he said that a regime that did these things was, indeed, an evil empire. Mike JOHNS Then he went still further. He said that evil would not stand. He challenged Moscow to choose between the forces of liberty and those of tyranny. And with your support, we backed up our rhetoric with the force that was needed to prevail -- we 5 countered the Warsaw Pact, which was prepáring for World War III; we sent aid to freedom fighters from Afghanistan to Angola; and Mille we proudly let the forces of liberation know: Your cause is our JOhNS cause. We stand with you in the trenches against tyranny Who can forget Reagan's challenge at Brandenburg Gate: "Mr. Gorbachev, open this gate. Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall." With this challenge, we knew that the correlation of forces had changed forever. Communism was now on the run; and liberty was on the march. With guns and tanks we defended Western Europe, but with words -- the power of ideas and the promise of freedom -- we helped liberate that continent's eastern half. Mike JOHNS Without Ronald Reagan, and without many of you here today who believed in his vision, these changes would never have occured. And this is why, when I was running for president in 1988 and my opponent called for change, I was quick to remind him: Sir, we are the change. And, you know what, we're still the change. The values that brought us to Washington in 1981 -- a rejection of tax-and-spend wine economics, support for the American family and its values, a belief in the ingenuity of ordinary Americans, an understanding JOHNS of the importance of God in our lives, and an unswerving support for a strong America -- these are the enduring values that continue to guide our crusade. And these are the values that I continue to embrace. Ronald Reagan and I always have shared a deep conviction that government must learn to trust the American people. Twelve years 32 ago, we began fighting for 6 tax cuts that MileJohns nation's economic future back in the hands of the people. Today, we're continuing that fight. We're fighting to reduce the tax burden on first-time home buyers, to give parents the right to choose their children's schools, to let parents rather than government bureaucrats make important decisions about child care, and to stimulate the economy by creating incentives for American business. I am determined to continue this revolution because I trust the American people and I have faith in their ability to keep this country prosperous and standing tall. But let me also issue a warning -- and I want to be blunt. Right now, we are in the fight of our lives. All of the gains you and I have made over the past twelve years are in jeopardy. I need your help if we are going to continue moving America forward. We simply cannot afford to go back again to the days of old. And let there be no mistake: beneath the nice packaging and the calls for change, that is precisely what my opponents have to offer -- a return to the failed policies you and I have worked so tirelessly to correct. And this is one of the reasons that our opponents are attacking not just me; they are out to deride and distort the entire Reagan legacy. Well, let me say: They cannot be allowed to prevail at the expense of the truth. We must finish what we start. The stakes are simply too high. So, let me congratulate you on the historic contributions that all of you have made to our great nation. Keep up your 7 important work, and I hope you will join me in continuing to advance our mutual values over the coming 100 days. Together, our revolution must continue. Thank you all very much. Johns/Gershowitz Draft three July 27, 1992 PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS FOR REAGAN ALUMNI Wednesday July 29, 1992 OEOB Room 450, 5pm Thank you, and welcome to all you. What a pleasure to see so many old friends. [Acknowledgements]. You know, since Ronald Reagan left the White House, one thing is noticeably absent from our cabinet room: the jar full of jelly beans. I remember that President Reagan often said that "you can tell a lot about a fella's character by whether he picks out all of one color or just grabs a handful." //Well, if we had that jar back in the White House today, I guess Bill Reilly would like the greens and Dick Cheney would hate the reds. // Seriously, back once again with all of you, I'm reminded that the crusade we began together in November 1980 still lives. They call it the Reagan Revolution, and let me be clear: I believed then, and I still believe, in this revolution. And as I look around this room, I see the architects of some of our country's most spectacular victories: the rebirth of the American economy from the doldrums of the 1970s, the victory over communism and the reinvigoration of our nation's defense, and -- perhaps most important -- the restoration of America's national pride and purpose. Grand accomplishments -- each of them. 2 And a lot of credit must go to the man who put us on this course of revival, one of our country's most beloved, most spectacular leaders: Ronald Reagan. As I look back on my decades of public service, there were thousands of men and women I have met who worked tirelessly to strengthen our country. But there is one thing I will never forget: being at Ronald Reagan's side as he fought -- against all odds -- to strengthen America and bring us a spirit of renewal and hope. Ronald Reagan reminded Americans that we live in the greatest of countries -- what he was fond of calling "a shining city on a hill," and he challenged Americans to reach for higher and higher levels of greatness. And, inspired by his leadership, they answered his call. Last November, out in Simi Valley, California, we dedicated the Reagan library. I recalled then how Ronald Reagan was often moved by Americans and their stories. Many times, he would write out letters in longhand to these men and women, then ask that they be retyped so that the recipients could read them. I always viewed this as a sign that Ronald Reagan's motivation as. president -- and his love for his job -- came not from his awesome powers, not from mingling with Presidents and Prime Ministers -- but from his contact with the everday citizens of a country he loved. You know, sometimes -- especially in the heat of a political year -- it's easy to forget how far we've come. Think back a bit to the world we faced before Ronald Reagan's arrival in 3 Washington: to the gas lines, a devastating combination of double-digit inflation and unemployment -- called stagflation -- that was eating at the wallets of the American people, crippling interest rates, the misery and malaise. Economic mismanagement, social liberalism -- all these things were tearing apart the American family and tearing down our nation. And then, of course, if you're not already queasy enough, there was the frightening global situation: A Soviet Union on the march; the rise of hostile, totalitarian regimes in virtually every region of the globe: Afghanistan, Iran, Nicaragua. It was a world where terrorists stormed American embassies, then held American officials for months -- as the Democrats' defense and foreign policy establishment sat paralyzed with fear and with indecision. Bleak days that I'm sure we'd all like to forget. But we all know what happened next. Enter the Gipper. Ronald Reagan brought us new vigor and hope. He sent the liberals and their ideas packing. And then, with wide support from the American people, he advanced his winning, conservative values -- his unblinking faith in the abilities of everyday Americans, his appointment of judges who respect the original meaning of our Constitution, and his conviction that, if government got out of the way, there was nothing America could not achieve. Today, as we look back on Ronald Reagan's presciptions, one thing is clear: they worked. This is not what the liberal myth- makers and their friends in the media want to hear. But on the economic front, just look at the numbers: Between 1982 and 1989, 4 more than 20 million new jobs were created. Median family and household incomes boosted to record highs. And, no matter how much the critics try to distort this record, we need to be honest in acknowledging that the gains were shared by all segments of society -- all of America benefited. During the Reagan expansion NEW a full 85% of the bottom fifth of income earners in 1979 had climbed to a higher level by 1988. And -- during this period -- York more people had gone from the lowest income level to the highest Times, income level than remained stuck at the bottom. 7-26-92 The Reagan record will forever show this fact: Reaganomics sparked the longest peacetime period of prolonged economic growth in our country's history. No liberal spin -- no partisan posturing -- can change that fact. And then, of course, came our 40th President's challenge to the Soviet Union. Correctly, Mr. Reagan looked at the Soviet Union, its persecution of the religious, its invasion and occupation of foreign lands, its denial of fundamental rights and liberties -- and he called it like it was: an evil empire. Then he went still further. He said that evil would not stand. He challenged Moscow to choose between the forces of liberty and those of tyranny. And with your support, we backed up our rhetoric with the force that was needed to prevail -- we countered the Warsaw Pact, which was gearing up for World War III; we sent aid to freedom fighters from Afghanistan to Angola; and we proudly let the forces of liberation know: Your cause is our cause. We stand with you in the trenches against tyranny. 5 Who can forget Reagan's challenge at Brandenburg Gate: the challenge that changed the correlation of forces forever. Communism was on the run; and liberty was on the march. With guns and tanks we defended Western Europe, but with words -- the power of ideas and the promise of freedom -- we helped liberate that continent's eastern half. Without Ronald Reagan, and without many of you here today who believed in his vision, these changes would never have occured. And this is why, when I was running for president in 1988 and my opponent called for change, I was quick to remind him: Sir, we are the change. And, you know what, despite what you might be hearing from the Democrats in the liberal Trojan horse, we're still the change. The values that brought us to Washington in 1981 -- a rejection of the failed tax-and-spend policies of the past, support for faith and family, a belief in old-fashioned American ingenuity, an understanding of the importance of God in our lives, and an unswerving support for a strong America -- these are the enduring values that continue to guide our crusade. These are the values that Ronald Reagan stood for, and these are the values that I continue to stand for. Ronald Reagan and I always have shared a deep conviction that government worthy of the peoples' trust could only be a government that trusts the American people. Twelve years ago, we began fighting for tax cuts that put our nation's economic future back in the hands of the people. Today, we're continuing that 6 fight. We're fighting to reduce the tax burden on first-time home buyers, to give parents the right to choose their children's schools, to let parents, not the government, make important decisions about child care, and to free the entrepreneurial spirit by creating incentives for American business. I am determined to see this revolution go forward because I trust the American people and I have faith in their ability to keep this country prosperous and standing tall. But let me also issue a warning -- and I'll be blunt. Right now, we are in the fight of our lives. All of the gains you and I have made over the past twelve years are in jeopardy. I need your help if we are going to continue moving America forward. And let there be no mistake: beneath the slick packaging and the calls for change, that is precisely what my opponents have to offer -- a return to the failed policies you and I have worked so tirelessly to correct. And don't just take my word for it, listen to another George -- George McGovern. He called this year's Democratic ticket a "trojan horse," and he said, and I quote: "They're much more liberal underneath and they'll prove it when they're elected." I never thought I'd say this, but George McGovern -- what an insightful man! But this is one of the reasons that our opponents are attacking not just me; they are out to deride and distort the entire Reagan legacy. Well, let me say: They cannot be allowed to 7 prevail. We must finish what we start. The stakes are simply too high. So, let me congratulate you on the historic contributions that all of you have made to our great nation. Keep up your important work, and I hope that you will join me in continuing to advance our mutual values over the coming 100 days. Wendell Phillips once declared that "Revolutions never go backward. " Neither can ours. Together, our revolution must continue; it must go forward. Thank you all very much. Johns/Gershowitz Draft four July 28, 1992 PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS FOR REAGAN ALUMNI Wednesday July 29, 1992 OEOB Room 450, 5pm Thank you, and welcome to all you. What a pleasure to see so many old friends. [Acknowledgements]. You know, since Ronald Reagan left the White House, one thing is noticeably absent from our cabinet room: the jar full of jelly beans. I once remember President Reagan saying that "you can tell a lot about a fella's character by whether he picks out all of one color or just grabs a handful." / /Well, if we had that jar back in the White House today, I guess Bill Reilly would like the greens and Dick Cheney would hate the reds. // Seriously, back once again with all of you, I'm reminded that the crusade we began together in November 1980 still lives. They call it the Reagan Revolution, and let me be clear: I believed then, and I still believe, in this revolution. And as I look around this room, I see the architects of some of our revolution's most spectacular victories: the rebirth of the American economy from the doldrums of the 1970s, the victory over communism and the reinvigoration of our nation's defense, and -- perhaps most important -- the restoration of America's national pride and purpose. Grand accomplishments -- each of them. /. Personal obervation 2. WASH TNSA5/11/92 commentry (RANK PAUl 4099 Roberts- During the cart. Admin the top 1% got 100% of income gains white the income of Middle 4 lower AMericaN(99%) incomestal. PAGE 1 U.S. News & World Report, December 15, 1980 December 15, 1980 SECTION: Pg. 50 LENGTH: 1250 words HEADLINE: Prosperity Without Inflation; Interviews With Four Nobel Prize Winners BYLINE: Milton Friedman; Friedman, 68, received a Nobel in 1976 for his work in monetarism, the school of economics that stresses the money supply. He is with the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. HIGHLIGHT: Double-digit inflation, slow growth in output, millions of people out of work: This is the economic thicket that entraps Americans and awaits President-elect Ronald Reagan's administration. Can the problems which have been building since the mid-1960s be solved? What should the White House, Congress, the Federal Reserve do in the months ahead? How much progress can people expect and how quickly? Above all, what TM TM TM LEXIS:NEXIS® LEXIS-NEXIS® LEXIS·NEXIS® Services of Mead Data Central, Inc. Recyclable PAGE 33 12TH STORY of Level 1 printed in FULL format. Copyright (c) 1980 American Banker December 23, 1980, Tuesday SECTION: Pg. 1 LENGTH: 1450 words HEADLINE: OECD Forecast: More of Sluggish Same BYLINE: By M.S. MENDELSOHN DATELINE: LONDON BODY: A weak recovery of output, a slow and modest decline in inflation but another steep rise in unemployment are the main developments forecast for the world's industrialized countries over the coming 18 months by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The forecasts are contained in the OECD's half-yearly Economic Outlook, released in Paris for publication Tuesday. As usual, the forecasts are based on present trends and policies. Also, they assume no further rise in real oil prices, no significant changes in exchange relationships and the maintenance of business confidence at present levels. If those assumptions are not realized, output could be even weaker than forecast, the OECD warns. The picture is not bleak in every respect. The combined current payments deficit of the OECD's 24 member countries is forecast to shrink to about $40 billion in 1981 from about $73 billion in 1980, mainly on another strong improvement in the American current surplus. The American surplus is forecast to rise to almost $20 billion next year from an estimated $5 1/2 billion in 1980. If achieved, that would represent a massive swing of almost $35 billion from the American deficit of $14 billion just two years ago, in 1978. Energy Production Rises More important is the "considerable success" achieved so far by the OECD countries in reducing their dependence on imported oil. Conservation induced by higher prices and by regulation have reduced energy use per unit of gross national product by about 4% over the past two years. At the same time energy production has risen by 4% in the OECD area since 1978 and, as a result, OECD's net oil imports have fallen by about 10% during the past two years. Without the war between Iran and Iraq, an excess of world oil supply over demand would have been likely this year. But apart from those brighter aspects, the prospects of stagflation with sharply rising unemployment are distinctly discouraging, as painted by the OECD secretariat. Real gross national product of the OECD area is estimated to have fallen at an annual 3/4% on a seasonally adjusted basis during the six months just ending. A gradual resumption of growth is projected from the start of next year, rising from an annual rate of 1 1/2% in the first half of 1981 to an annual 3% in the first half of 1982. But even that annual 3% would be well below OECD growth during any of the past 20 years excepting the two recession years of 1974 and 1975. The same is TM LEXIS:NEXIS® LEXIS·NEXIS® LEXIS·NEXIS® Services of Mead Data Central, Inc. Recyclable PAGE 34 (c) 1980 American Banker, December 23, 1980 true of the 1% growth in output forecast for the OECD area for 1981 as a whole, which would be exactly the same as the sluggish growth estimated as having been achieved in 1980. À Little Recovery The United States, accounting for 35% of OECD output, is the only major economy for which an improvement in output is forecast. But it is a very modest one -- from an estimated 3/4% fall in GNP during 1980 to a forecasted rise of that same magnitude in 1981, which would leave America's real output of goods and services almost exactly where it was in 1979. Some economic recovery is also forecast for Canada and Spain, each accounting for about 3% of OECD output, and for Denmark, Greece, Ireland and Turkey, accounting between them for about 2 1/2% of OECD production. Output in the other 15 OECD countries is expected to be lower in 1981 than this year, although some upturn is forecast for most of them in the second half of 1981 and the first half of 1982. The notable exception is the United Kingdom, where output is expected to weaken again after a brief recovery in the first half of next year. In spite of the sluggish outlook for economic activity, nothing more than a very modest cooling of inflation is projected. The American rate of consumer price inflation is forecast to decline to no more than an average 10% next year from an estimated 10 1/2% in 1980, and the rate for the whole of the OECD area is forecast to decline only to about 9 3/4% in 1981 from an estimated 11 1/4% in 1980. Wasted Human Resources It is true that a gradual lowering of the annual inflation rate from about 10% to 8% is forecast for OECD's seven leading economies in the period to mid-1982. But the 10% inflation rate forecast for the OECD area as a whole for 1981 would, if achieved, still be the highest since the rates of 13 1/2% in 1974 and 11 1/4% in 1975. Even the marginal slowing of inflation foreseen by the OECD for the next 18 months is being bought at a staggering cost in terms of wasted human resources. Unemployment in the area is expected to rise from 23 million to 25 1/2 million over the coming Pyear and then do nothing better than level off. At the latter figure, unemployment will have reached 7 1/2% of the OECD labor force, compared with an average 3% in the 10 years to 1973, less than 5% in the five years to 1979 and a present level of 5 3/4%. The OECD secretariat does not comment on the diminishing trade-off between the achievement of even some minimal level of price stability and employment, but the figures speak more strongly than any comment can. Moreover, the average of 5 3/4% unemployment which exists in the OECD area now and the 7 1/2% envisaged for about a year hence disguises a far higher concentration of unemployment among young people under the age of 24, minority groups and workers in declining regions and industries. Oil Hikes Plus Monetarism Furthermore, the flattening of unemployment in the OECD as a whole forecast from mid-1982 would reflect almost entirely a decline projected in the LEXIS:NEXIS® LEXIS-NEXIS® LEXIS·NEXIS® Services of Mead Data Central, Inc. Recyclable PAGE 35 (c) 1980 American Banker, December 23, 1980 American unemployment rate from 8% at present to 7 3/4% in 12 months. In Japan, Germany, France, Britain, Italy and Canada, unemployment is expected to go on rising to new peaks over the coming year. The OECD secretariat puts some of the blame for the western world's present difficulties on the 150% rise in world oil prices during the 18 months to mid-1980. Because of that rise and even without allowing for the latest 10% hike in nominal, though not in real, oil prices, the secretariat estimates that total OECD gross national product in 1981 may be 6 1/2% or about $550 billion lower than it might have been without the second oil "shock." Nevertheless, the OECD secretariat implies that some of the industrial world's present difficulties are the creation also of competitive monetarism. Because of the high priority accorded to fighting inflation, there is a general tendency to resist any action which might lead to depreciation of the exchange rate. There is even a certain willingness to accept currency appreciation, despite the implications for trade performance and the level of domestic activity. Will It Work on Large Scale? "However," the report states, "while a single country can retard imported inflation by tight policy, such as monetary policy, which tends to raise interest rates and hence the exchange rate, there is a risk that if this were attempted by too many countries, monetary conditions would be tighter than generally warranted by purely domestic considerations, while having little or no effect on effective exchange rates and hence imported inflation." As to its forecasting record, the latest OECD report admits that this has been weakest in years following major shocks to the world economy. OECD itself does not go backwards in detail, but anyone who cares to compare forecasts of the 1970s with what actually occurred will see that the OECD underestimated the recession and inflation of 1974, the recovery of 1976 and the renewed inflation of 1978. A Good Record on Balance But on the whole the secretariat's record has been a good one, and the projections for the year now ending have proved extremely close to the result. The OECD itself has warned that the risks to its forecast of a modest recovery of output in the coming 18 months are on the downside. And its forecasts of a moderation of inflationary pressures may prove to be hopeful -- even if output does not in fact recover to the small extent now forecast. Finally, a note for bank statisticians. The cut-off date for information used in the latest OECD forecasts was November 17. In other words, the forecasts do not take into account the most recent 10% rise in world oil prices. That rise in itself, however, represents almost no rise in real terms and should not therefore influence the forecasts to any degree that matters. As a rough rule of thumb, the OECD stands by its formula that any 10% rise in real world oil prices adds about 1% to OECD inflation while depressing OECD's economic output by about 1/2%. TM TM TM LEXIS:NEXIS LEXIS·NEXIS® LEXIS:NEXIS Services of Mead Data Central, Inc. Recyclable - Language by Chris Frenze, JOiNt ECON COMM- 224-0373- hi On the economic front, just look at the numbers: Between 1982 to 1989 more than 20 million new jobs created. Median family and household incomes boosted to record highs we need to be honest in acknowledging that the gains were shared by all segments of society -- all America benefitted. During the Reagan expansion, the bottom 20 percent of income earners saw their incomes climb 12 percent; middle American family incomes rose 13 percent. V YORK TIMES FORUM SUNDAY, JULY 26, 1992 13 me to Get Back to Reaganomics Unfortunately, the Congressional Budget Office years. In 1980 alone, the poorest 20 percent suf- numbers are seriously flawed. They attribute far fered losses that offset all Reagan-era gains. too much income to the "rich," while shortchang- When these corrections are made, the share of ing the middle class and poor. pretax income growth received by the top per- By counting only taxable income, for example, cent during the 1980 to 1989 period falls to 38 the budget office excludes the untaxed proceeds percent, according to the budget office. Oncan from the sale of a home, as well as capital gains after-tax basis, only 25 percent of income growth accruing to middle-class families in the form of during this period went to the top 1 percent. pension funds. The budget office ignores the value of housing subsidies, Medicaid and other in-kind W HILE the rich as a class got richer during transfers, which account for a growing share of the 1980's, the individuals that comprise income received by the poor. the "rich" and the "poor" changed dra- According to the budget office's estimates, the matically. A recent Treasury Department study average income of the top 1 percent of families tracing the income reported by 14,351 taxpayers William E. Sauro/The New York Times increased from $289,743 (in 1990 dollars) in 1977, to between 1979 and 1988 found that 53 percent of $548,970 in 1990, a 94.2 percent rise. Capital gains, individuals in the top 1 percent in 1979 had dropped up 171 percent, was allegedly the fastest-growing to lower rungs by 1988. This sample was restricted By EDWIN S. RUBENSTEIN source of income for this well-heeled group. to individuals who filed tax returns each year, But the budget office failed to adjust capital thereby understating mobility since people are, ssertions have been made, in a number gains for inflation. By its reckoning, someone who always dropping out or coming into the system ticles in this paper and others, that the bought an asset for $50,000 in 1977 and sold it for Of those in the bottom quintile, the Treasury, hiest 1 percent of American families $100,000 in 1990 had a capital gain of $50,000, even study found 85.8 percent had climbed to a higher 60 percent of the total income growth though - adjusted for inflation - the asset really quintile by 1988. Only 14.2 percent remained stuck 1980's. The evidence for these claims - sold for less than its purchase price. In a letter to at the bottom while 14.7 percent rose to the top. by Presidential candidate Bill Clinton Congress in March, Robert Reischauer, director of quintile. In other words, a person in the bottom eptance speech at the Democratic Na- the Congressional Budget Office, acknowledged an quintile in 1979 was more likely to be found in the vention - is based on an analysis of data overstatement of $134 billion from this error. top quintile than in the bottom quintile in 1988. Congressional Budget Office done by The analysis also errs in choosing 1977 to 1989 as Unfortunately, these positive trends have been I Krugman of the Massachusetts Insti- the period to appraise growth for the 80's. Census ignored by the budget office, Mr. Krugman and chnology. data show that 85 percent of the income decline Mr. Clinton. They should know better. As a result, allegedly suffered by the middle fifth of families income mobility remains the "dirty little secret,' Rubenstein is economics analyst at the actually occurred between 1977 and 1980. The of the fairness debate. It's time to get back to nal Review. suffering was in the Carter years, not the Reagan Reaganomics. 1979 JUNE Su Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa Pope says mass for million in native Poland Brezhnev, Carter 1 2 June 10. Pope John Paul II ended sign SALT II pact 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 his unprecedented nine-day trip to 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 his native Poland today with a mass 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 attended by over one million people. 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 It was the first pontifical visit ever to a Communist country, which is officially atheist. 1. Carter denounces Mobil for The political tone of the pope's opposing decontrol of oil prices speeches was muted in today's ser- (- 28). mon, in which John Paul exhorted 1. Nicaragua: Sandinistas open the Polish people to be "strong with long-awaited offensive (- 6). the strength which comes from 2. Washington: Assassination faith." Today's mass commemorat- inquiry final report backs theory ed Poland's patron saint, St. Stan- of plot on JFK. islaus. Because the government re- 2. Warsaw: Pope John Paul II fused to allow the pope to visit on welcomed to homeland (- 10). the saint's actual anniversary, the 3. New York: 15,000 protest at Polish Catholic Church officially Shoreham nuclear plant; 600 delayed the feast until the pope arrested (- 10/14). Polish Catholics welcome the Pope. arrived (- 9/29). East and West, a shaky love affair. 3. Paris: Borg beats Victor Pecci in French Open final. 4. South Africa: President Somoza states he June 18. President Carter and First elections held Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev ex- Vorster resigns (- 1/25/80). 6. U.S. halts all DC-10 flights for Europe assembly is ready to resign changed American-style hand- shakes and Russian-style embraces pending safety inquiry (- 7/13). as they signed a new arms control 6. Managua: Somoza declares June 10. Socialists and Social June 29. General Anastasio So- agreement in Vienna. Carter state of siege (- 17). Democrats won the largest number moza Debayle offered yesterday to warned that "a nuclear arms compe- 7. Carter approves MX missile of seats in the first direct elections resign as President of Nicaragua, tition without shared rules would program (- 18). ever for a European Parliament. but rebel leaders rejected the pro- be an invitation to disaster." 9. Carter's approval rating hits They each captured 25% of the vote posal today. They also accused the For the first time, the United all-time low of 30% in poll. as elections were held in nine coun- United States of meddling in Nic- States and the Soviet Union are 12. American Bryan Allen tries. Conservative parties, Com- aragua's internal affairs. Somoza limited to a maximum number of pedals plane across English munists and liberals trailed behind. has insisted that the National long-range missiles and bombers. Channel. The first President of the Parlia- Guard and the Liberal Party be The pact does allow them, however, 15. Malaysia to put 70,000 ment is a woman, Simone Veil, for- given a role in a transitional govern- to produce an unlimited number of Vietnamese refugees back out to sea (- 7/20). merly Minister of Health in France. ment. But opposition groups de- warheads. Both leaders pledged to The actual power of the organiza- manded Somoza be replaced once improve the pact in the future. 16. Calif.: Evelyn Ashford breaks 11-second barrier in tion in the Common Market will be and for all. For the past month, civil First, this accord has to overcome women's 100-meter dash. fairly limited, but it will consult war has ripped Nicaragua in half; Senate opposition. And Brezhnev, 17. Managua: Rebels name five with the Council of Europe on fairly and Somoza's forces have been on who looked pale in Vienna, has to to form provisional govt. (- 23). important matters. Many voters in the defensive (- 7/16). overcome his illness (- 9/7). 19. New York: Ed "Too Tall" Europe seemed to yawn their way Jones to quit football and take up through these elections. In Great boxing. Britain, nearly 70% of the eligible The Duke is dead: Star of great westerns 22. New York: Larry Holmes electorate did not bother to vote. KO's Mike Weaver in 12th Absenteeism was 40% in France. June 11. The Duke is dead; long round to keep title. By comparison, West Germans live the memory of John Wayne, 23. Washington: OAS calls for streamed to the voting booth. who starred in countless westerns ouster of Somoza (-> 29). and epitomized the strong, silent 24. Lebanon: Israel bombs eight man. Wayne died in Los Angeles towns after blast in Tel Aviv this afternoon at the age of 72. He (- 27). had suffered from lung and stomach 26. Newark: Ali announces cancer, a bout well-publicized. retirement (- 10/2/80). Marion Morrison became John 27. U.S. Supreme Court upholds Wayne when his mentor, John affirmative action (- 8/9). Ford, renamed him. He rode in B 27. Lebanon: Israeli, Syrian westerns until Ford cast him in the planes clash first time in five brilliant "Stagecoach" in 1939. years (- 7/25). Conservative Wayne invested 28. Geneva: OPEC raises oil millions in "The Alamo," in which prices 16%, now up 50% in last Mexicans are bad guys, Americans year (- 7/15). all good. Ironically, all three of the European Parliament in Strasbourg. Duke's wives were Hispanic. The Duke, archetypal western hero. 1156 1979 1979 Isle of Man Parliament is 1,000 years old Chrysler Corp. asks Su Mo Tu We Th Fr U.S. for $1 billion 1 5 6 7 8 10 12 13 14 15 16 17 July 31. The Chrysler Corpora- 18 19 20 21 22 23 tion reported the largest quarterly 24 25 26 27 28 29 loss in its history today and said it 30 31 was asking the federal government for $1 billion in cash over the next 18 months to keep the company 1. London: Thatcher assails afloat. Chrysler's Chairman, John J. Nigeria's nationalization of Brit- ish oil interests 8/8/80)- Riccardo, said he was confident the government would help the com- 3. U.N. reports 2.5 mil starving in Cambodia; relief efforts stalled pany to avoid the possible loss of by rival governments (-19) 250,000 jobs by its auto workers. 7. Tehran: Leading Chrysler lost $207 million in the closed in crackdown (+12) latest quarter and has run out of 8. Detroit: Chrysler lays off cash, Riccardo said. The company 4,600 more wor (4/12/20). has no recourse but to ask the gov- 8. Iraq: Lofficials executed ernment for aid, said Lee Iacocca, plotting revolt. who was recently named President 9 Alabama: Klansmen bez Millenial celebrations: Norsemen conquered the Isle of Man in the 9th century. of the troubled company (- 8/8). mile "white rights Salina to Montgomery (-10/18). July 5. The Parliament of the Isle designated this their Parliament's of Man has passed only 18 laws this millenium. It is not known exactly Court removes bar 11. India: Dam in Goudierat bursts, killing hundred year. It hasn't been hampered by when a band of Vikings landed on filibusters; there simply aren't many to minors' abortions 12. Tehran: Hundreds injured the windswept shores and formed a riots over closing of major things left to legislate after 1,000 ruling body they called Tynwald. newspaper + 10/22) years of operation. Queen Elizabeth Now the Tynwald recognizes the July 2. "Please, ma, can I have an 14. U.S. drops rule barring II and dignitaries from several queen as its sovereign, and some abortion?" That unlikely request suspected homosexuals from democracies attended a ceremony islanders petitioned her today, seek- need never be made, now that the entering country (-8/17/84) today marking the birthday of the ing a retention of birching or cor- Supreme Court has ruled a minor 14. Britain: 18 drown in store oldest continuous Parliament. poral punishment. The European may seek an abortion without paren- during yacht race. Manxmen, whose island lies near- Court of Human Rights has forbid- tal consent. The 8-to-1 decision 15. Zurich: Sebastian Coe sets ly equidistant from Scotland, Ire- den the practice, but 75 percent of shoots down a Massachusetts law record in 1,500-meters at land and England, had arbitrarily Manxmen find it jolly good. requiring unmarried girls under age 19, Soviet cosmonauts Lyakhov to get permission for an abortion and Ryomine end record Algeria frees Ben Bella, held for 14 years from parents or a court judge. Jus- 175-day space trip (+7/18/80) tice Byron White gave the only dis- 20. Florida: Dians Nyad swims? senting vote, saying it seemed "in- 60 miles from Bahamas to UST July 4. This was liberation day in fervent nationalist is 62, and much conceivable that the United 21. Iran executes 18 Kurdish Algeria for Ahmed Ben Bella. The of the country seems to have forgot- States Constitution forbids even no- rebels (-9/2) hero of Algerian independence and ten him. tice to parents when their minor 21. Nicaragua: Sandinistas ban former President was freed after 14 Ben Bella was a key leader in child who seeks surgery object to capital punishment, restore years of house arrest. The once Algeria's struggle to win its freedom such notice" (- 3/23/81). human rights laws 10/17) from France. In 20 years, he rose 21. New York: Two men steal from a sergeant in the army to pres- $2 mil. from Brink's truck: ident in 1963. Ben Bella drifted Amnesty is granted 22. Puerto Rico: U.S. basketball toward Moscow, improved ties with coach Bobby Knight given MI Peking and became a spokesman for to many Iranians months for assaulting policeman. the non-aligned countries. He con- 24, Washington: Carter side tinued to criticize France, but still July 9. Ayatollah Khomeini, Hamilton Jordan denies taking cocaine at Studio 54 (- 9/26) managed to win $200 million in aid faced with growing resistance to his regime, declared a general amnesty 27. Ireland: Lord Mountbatten from Paris every year. Houari Boumedienne deposed today for Iranians who committed killed by IRA bomb on fishing boat (+ 30). Ben Bella in 1965 and ordered him crimes when the Shah was in power; 30. New York: 11 banks robbed arrested. He was too popular and 3,000 political prisoners are expect- in one day placing total for too threatening. In recent years, the ed to be freed. The amnesty does month at 137. status of Ben Bella has been some- not cover Iranians accused or con- thing of an embarassment to Alge- victed of murder and torture. The DEATHS ria. Yugoslavia's President Tito ayatollah's announcement is in- 2. Thurman Munson, N.Y. and Cuba's Fidel Castro have often tended to discourage further attacks Yankee catcher (°6/7/1947) inquired about him. Algeria's new against his supporters. There has 21. James Farrell, American President, Chadli Benjedid, appar- been widespread dissatisfaction in realist writer (*2/27/1904). ently thinks Ben Bella is too old to Iran to the executions of 200 people Ahmed Ben Bella, led 1954 revolt. do any harm. since Khomeini returned (-, 23). 1158 whose ramny nas Tuica 5. Iran nationalizes most remain- ing heavy industry (- 9). Nicaragua since 1933, was to be succeeded in power by a five-man 7. Wimbledon: Borg over Roscoe Tanner 6-7, 6-1, 3-6, 6-3, 6-4; junta controlled by the Sandinistas. Navratilova over Evert Lloyd A momentary hitch developed in 6-4, 6-4. the plan when Francisco Uryco 11. Australia: Skylab, destroyed Malianos, the President of the by re-entry, sinks in ocean off Chamber of Deputies who was to coast (- 8/19). serve as a transitional President, 12. Spain: 71 killed, 47 hurt in at first declined to surrender power est, a shaky love affair. hotel fire. to the junta. 12. New York: Mob boss Somoza, who said he had been Jubilant Sandinistas hoist their flag over a government building in Managua. President Carter and Carmine Galante slain. driven from power by a Communist er Leonid Brezhnev ex- 13. U.S.: FAA ends grounding of conspiracy, left behind a nation American-style hand- DC-10's. devastated by civil war with fighting Russian-style embraces 15. Ankara: PLO gunmen end continuing in several regions of the ed a new arms control siege at Egyptian Embassy; country. Several thousand persons in Vienna. Carter release nine hostages. were believed to have been killed in "a nuclear arms compe- 16. Managua: Somoza retires the fighting in the past two months it shared rules would 100 senior officers (- 17). and 500,000 persons-one fifth of tion to disaster." 17. Carter's Cabinet and all the country's population-have first time, the United members of senior staff offer been displaced from their homes. the Soviet Union are resignations (- 19). Within days after the revolution- maximum number of 17. Oslo: Sebastian Coe sets mile ary junta had taken power, fissures missiles and bombers. record at 3:49.0. began developing in the unusual co- es allow them, however, 17. Nicaragua: Somoza over- alition of conservative businessmen in unlimited number of thrown; exiled to U.S. (- 25). and Marxist rebels that had op- Both leaders pledged to 19. Portugal gets first woman posed the authoritarian Somoza e pact in the future. president, Maria de Lourdes regime. A business group expressed Pintassilgo (- 4/25/83). ccord has to overcome concern that the new government sition. And Brezhnev, 20. Geneva: Vietnam urges U.S. would not fulfill its pledge to pale in Vienna, has to to accept more refugees as talks open (- 21). encourage private enterprise S illness (- 9/7). (- 8/21). Somoza, last in 46-year-old dynasty. Rebel wrecks remnant of regime. 21. Geneva: Vietnam to try to halt exodus of refugees (- 28). westerns 22. Bernard Hinault wins Tour Limit proposed on Major shifts made Marcuse, father of de France second time. 23. Iran: Khomeini bans broad- oil imports by U.S. in Carter Cabinet New Left, is dead cast music, charging it corrupts youth (- 8/7). July 15. President Carter tonight July 19. A dramatic reshuffling of July 29. Marxist philosopher 25. Israel turns over another part of Sinai to Egypt (- 9/24). proposed a six-point package of en- his Cabinet was announced today Herbert Marcuse has died at age 81. ergy measures, including a limit on by President Carter in Washington. The German-American college pro- 28. U.S. to double quota for Indochinese refugees (- 11/24). oil imports, designed to save 4.5 Joseph A. Califano Jr. was forced fessor was embraced by 60's radicals billion gallons of oil a day by 1990. out as Secretary of Health, Educa- for his opposition to the "repressive 29. Madrid: Blasts at airport and rail stations kill four, injure 113; His televised speech was a response tion and Welfare, to be succeeded by monolith," American society. He claimed by Basques (- 10/25). to a 50 percent price increase over Patricia Roberts Harris, now the advocated the use of violence, but the past year by the Organization of Secretary of Housing and Urban only as "counterviolence" to an op- DEATHS Petroleum Exporting Countries. Development. Treasury Secretary pressive, non-negotiating force. 10. Arthur Fiedler, conductor of Carter assailed what he called a W. Michael Blumenthal resigned, Many scholars scoffed at his pre- Boston Pops (*12/17/1894). "crisis of confidence" among Amer- to be replaced by G. William Miller, scriptions for a revolution led by a 22. "Two Ton" Tony Galento, icans as he announced "the most Chairman of the Federal Reserve coalition of urban blacks, radical heavyweight boxer, knocked massive peacetime commitment of Board. And Attorney General students and white intellectuals, but down Joe Louis (*3/12/1910). funds and resources in our nation's Griffin B. Bell resigned. His re- few could deny his brilliance. "One history" to reduce American de- placement will be Benjamin R. Dimensional Man" and "Eros and chetypal western hero. pendence on foreign oil (- 11/26). Civiletti (- 8/3). Civilization" are his best works. 1157