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Reagan Alumni 7/29/92 [OA 7577]
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Records of the White House Office of Speechwriting (George H. W. Bush Administration)
Speech Backup Chronological Files
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MARKER
This is not a textual record. This is used as an
administrative marker by the George Bush Presidential
Library Staff.
Record Group/Collection:
George H.W. Bush Presidential Records
Collection/Office of Origin:
Speechwriting, White House Office of
Series:
Speech File Backup Files
Subseries:
Chron File, 1989-1993
OA/ID Number:
13824
Folder ID Number:
13824-002
Folder Title:
Reagan Alumni 7/29/92 [OA 7577]
Stack:
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26
22
6
7
Johns/
Draft one
July 24, 1992
PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS FOR REAGAN ALUMNI
Wednesday July 29, 1992
OEOB Room 450, 5pm
Thank you, and welcome to all you. What a pleasure to see so
many old friends.
(Acknowledgements).
You know, since Ronald Reagan left the White House, one
thing is noticeably absent from our cabinet room: no jar full of
jelly beans.
I remember how President Reagan would often say that "you
can tell a lot about a fella's character by whether he picks out
all of one color or just grabs a handful." / /Well, if we had that
jar back in the White House today, I guess Bill Reilly would like
the greens and Dick Cheney would hate the reds. //
once again with all of you
Seriously, back in this room, I'm reminded that the crusade
we began together in November 1980 still lives. They call it the
Reagan Revolution, and let me be clear: I believed then, and I
still believe, in this revolution.
And as I look around this room, I see the architects of some
of our country's most spectacular victories: the rebirth of the
American economy from the doldrums of the 1970s, the victory over
communism and the reinvigoration of our nation's defense, and --
perhaps most important -- the restoration of America's national
pride and purpose. Grand accomplishments -- each of them.
2
tate 10's
And a lot of credit must go to the man who put us on this
course of revival, one of our country's most beloved, most
(2)
spectacular leaders: Ronald Reagan.
( befave Ronald Reagan's averagl:
Think back a bit to the world we faced in 1980: gas lines, a
devastating combination of double-digit inflation and
79, what
unemployment P9340 called stagflation -- that was eating at the 80 else
wallets of the American people. ? Economic mismanagement, social eccumically
w
liberalism -- all these things were tearing apart the American
family and tearing apart our nation.
socially?
And, across our great country, something even worse was
happening: We were quickly losing faith in America's future --
and the Democrats were showing us that our fears were not without
justification, that there was no reason to believe things would
improve. Liberalism told us to prepare for the worst -- that
America was on the way down.
And then, of course, there was the frightening global
J
situation: A Soviet Union on the march; the rise of hostile,
totalitarian regimes in virtual every area of the globe:
Afghanistan, Iran, Nicaragua. It was a world where terrorists
stormed American embassies, and held American officials for
months -- as the Democrats' defense and foreign policy
establishment sat paralyzed with fear and with indecision. Bleak
days that I'm sure we'd all like to forget.
But we all know what happened next. Enter the Gipper. Ronald
Reagan brought us new vigor and hope. He sent the liberals
packing. And then, with wide support from the American people, he
3
instituted his winning, conservative values -- his unblinking
belief in the abilities of ordinary Americans, his healthy
skepticism of government's ability to solve every problem
everywhere, and his conviction that, if government got out of the
way, there was nothing that we could not achieve as Americans.
And then came our 40th president's challenge to the Soviet
Union. Correctly, Mr. Reagan looked at the Soviet Union, its
persecution of the religious, its invasion and occupation of
foreign lands, its denial of fundamental rights and liberties --
and he said that a regime that did these things was, indeed, an
evil empire.
And then he went still further. He said that evil would not
stand. He challenged Moscow to choose between the forces of
liberty and those of tyranny. With your support, we backed up our
rhetoric with the force that was needed to prevail -- we
countered the Warsaw Pact, which was preparing for World War III;
we sent aid to freedom fighters from Afghanistan to Angola; and
we let the forces of liberation know: Your cause is our cause. We
stand with you in the trenches against tyranny.
Who can forget Reagan's challenge at Brandenburg Gate: "Mr.
Gorbachev, open this gate. Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall. "
With this challenge, we knew that the correlation of forces had
changed forever. Communism was now on the run; and liberty was on
the march. With guns and tanks we defended Western Europe, but
with words -- the power of ideas and the promise of freedom -- we
liberated that continent's eastern half.
4
Without Ronald Reagan, and without many of you here today
who believed in his vision, these changes would never have
occured. And this is why, when I was running for president in
1988 and my opponent called for change, I was quick to remind
him: Sir, we are the change.
And, you know what, we're still the change. The values that
brought us to Washington in 1980 -- a rejection of tax-and-spend
economics, support for the American family and its values, a
belief in the ingenuity of ordinary Americans, an understanding
of the importance of God in our lives, and an unswerving support
for a strong America -- these are the enduring values that
continue to guide our crusade. And these are the values I
continue to embrace.
So, let me congratulate you on the historic contributions
that all of you have made to our great nation. Keep up your
important efforts. Together, our revolution will continue.
Thank you all very much.
Johns/Gershowitz
Draft two
July 27, 1992
PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS FOR REAGAN ALUMNI
Wednesday July 29, 1992
OEOB Room 450, 5pm
Thank you, and welcome to all you. What a pleasure to see so
many old friends.
[Acknowledgements].
You know, since Ronald Reagan left the White House, one
thing is noticeably absent from our cabinet room: no jar full of
jelly beans.
I remember how President Reagan would often say that "you
can tell a lot about a fella's character by whether he picks out
all of one color or just grabs a handful." / /Well, if we had that
jar back in the White House today, I guess Bill Reilly would like
the greens and Dick Cheney would hate the reds./ /
Seriously, back once again with all of you, I'm reminded
X
that the crusade we began together in November 1980 still lives.
They call it the Reagan Revolution, and Nlet Mike me be JOHNS clear: I
believed then, and I still believe, in this revolution.
And as I look around this room, I see the architects of some
of our country's most spectacular victories: the rebirth of the
American economy from the doldrums of the 1970s, the victory over
communism and the reinvigoration of our nation's defense, and --
perhaps most important -- the restoration of America's national
pride and purpose. Grand accomplishments -- each of them.
2
And a lot of credit must go to the man who put us on this
course of revival, one of our country's most beloved, most
spectacular leaders: Ronald Reagan.
As I look back on my decades of public service, there were
thousands of men and women I encountered who worked tirelessly to
strengthen our country. But there is one thing I will never
forget: being at Ronald Reagan's side as he fought -- often
against the odds -- to strengthen America and bring us a spirit
of renewal and hope. Ronald Reagan reminded Americans that we
live in the greatest of countries -- what he was fond of calling
Mille
cunt's
"a shining city on a hill," and he challenged Americans to reach
JOHNS
for
higher
and
higher
levels
of
greatness.
And,
inspired
by
his
neaspeen
leadership, they answered his call.
Last November, out in Simi Valley, California, we dedicated iN Curt's
the Reagan library. I recalled then how Ronald Reagan often would 11-a1speech
be impressed by Americans whose stories and achievements had
inspired him. Many times, he would write out letters in longhand
Lincunts
to these men and women, then ask that they be retyped so that the
SIF91
recipients could read them. I always viewed this as a sign that
neagaw
Ronald Reagan's motivation as president -- and his love for his
job -- came not from his awesome powers, not from mingling with
the powerful and the rich -- but from his contact with the
ordinary citizens of a country he loved.
You know, sometimes -- especially in the heat of a political
year -- it's easy to forget how far we've come. Think back a bit
to the world we faced before Ronald Reagan's arrival in
3
Washington: gas lines, a devastating combination of double-digit
inflation and unemployment -- called stagflation -- that was
eating at the wallets of the American people, and crippling
interest rates. Economic mismanagement, social liberalism -- all
these things were tearing apart the American family and tearing
apart our nation.
And then, of course, there was the frightening global
situation: A Soviet Union on the march; the rise of hostile,
totalitarian regimes in virtually every area of the globe:
Afghanistan, Iran, Nicaragua. It was a world where terrorists
stormed American embassies, then held American officials for
months -- as the Democrats' defense and foreign policy
establishment sat paralyzed with fear and with indecision. Bleak
days that I'm sure we'd all like to forget.
And at the same time - across our great country --
something even worse was happening: We were quickly losing faith
in America's future -- and the Democrats were showing us that our
fears were not without justification. Liberalismitold us to
x
prepare for the worst -- that America was on the way down.
Mixe
JOLNS
But we all know what happened next. Enter the Gipper. Ronald
Reagan brought us new vigor and hope. He sent the liberals
packing. And then, with wide support from the American people, he
instituted his winning, conservative values -- his unblinking
faith in the abilities of ordinary Americans, his appointment of
judges who had respect for the original meaning of our Constitution,
BASE Year 4
and his conviction that, if government got out of the way, there
was nothing that we could not achieve as Americans.
Chris Frenze 202-224-0373
Today, as we look back on Ronald Reagan's presciptions, one
thing is clear: they worked On the economic front, just look at
Bef. 182 +0'89 V85 using annual AV MediAN
the numbers: More than 20 million new jobs created. Family and
JoiNt ECONOMIC COMM
About
household incomes boosted to record highs. And, no matter how
much the critics try to distort this record, we need to be honest
in acknowledging that the gains did were not shared flow exclusively byail EXPaNSiON бед. to of the society
rich -- all of America benefited. During the Reagan years, the
bottom 20 percent of income earners saw their incomes climb 12
Middle American (Middle 20%
percent to record levels. And middle income family incomes rose
13 percent.
The Reagan record will forever show this fact: Reaganomics
sparked the longest peacetime period of prolonged economic growth
in our country's history. No liberal spin -- no partisan
posturing -- can alter that fact.
JOING ECON COMM
Chris Frenze
And then, of course, came our 40th president's challenge to
the Soviet Union. Correctly, Mr. Reagan looked at the Soviet
Union, its persecution of the religious, its invasion and
occupation of foreign lands, its denial of fundamental rights X and
liberties -/ and he said that a regime that did these things was,
indeed, an evil empire.
Mike JOHNS
Then he went still further. He said that evil would not
stand. He challenged Moscow to choose between the forces of
liberty and those of tyranny. And with your support, we backed up
our rhetoric with the force that was needed to prevail -- we
5
countered the Warsaw Pact, which was prepáring for World War III;
we sent aid to freedom fighters from Afghanistan to Angola; and
Mille
we proudly let the forces of liberation know: Your cause is our
JOhNS
cause. We stand with you in the trenches against tyranny
Who can forget Reagan's challenge at Brandenburg Gate: "Mr.
Gorbachev, open this gate. Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall."
With this challenge, we knew that the correlation of forces had
changed forever. Communism was now on the run; and liberty was on
the march. With guns and tanks we defended Western Europe, but
with words -- the power of ideas and the promise of freedom -- we
helped liberate that continent's eastern half.
Mike JOHNS
Without Ronald Reagan, and without many of you here today
who believed in his vision, these changes would never have
occured. And this is why, when I was running for president in
1988 and my opponent called for change, I was quick to remind
him: Sir, we are the change.
And, you know what, we're still the change. The values that
brought us to Washington in 1981 -- a rejection of tax-and-spend
wine
economics, support for the American family and its values, a
belief in the ingenuity of ordinary Americans, an understanding
JOHNS
of the importance of God in our lives, and an unswerving support
for a strong America -- these are the enduring values that
continue to guide our crusade. And these are the values that I
continue to embrace.
Ronald Reagan and I always have shared a deep conviction
that government must learn to trust the American people. Twelve
years 32 ago, we began fighting for 6 tax cuts that MileJohns nation's
economic future back in the hands of the people. Today, we're
continuing that fight. We're fighting to reduce the tax burden on
first-time home buyers, to give parents the right to choose their
children's schools, to let parents rather than government
bureaucrats make important decisions about child care, and to
stimulate the economy by creating incentives for American
business. I am determined to continue this revolution because I
trust the American people and I have faith in their ability to
keep this country prosperous and standing tall.
But let me also issue a warning -- and I want to be blunt.
Right now, we are in the fight of our lives. All of the gains you
and I have made over the past twelve years are in jeopardy. I
need your help if we are going to continue moving America
forward. We simply cannot afford to go back again to the days of
old. And let there be no mistake: beneath the nice packaging and
the calls for change, that is precisely what my opponents have to
offer -- a return to the failed policies you and I have worked so
tirelessly to correct. And this is one of the reasons that our
opponents are attacking not just me; they are out to deride and
distort the entire Reagan legacy.
Well, let me say: They cannot be allowed to prevail at the
expense of the truth. We must finish what we start. The stakes
are simply too high.
So, let me congratulate you on the historic contributions
that all of you have made to our great nation. Keep up your
7
important work, and I hope you will join me in continuing to
advance our mutual values over the coming 100 days. Together, our
revolution must continue.
Thank you all very much.
Johns/Gershowitz
Draft three
July 27, 1992
PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS FOR REAGAN ALUMNI
Wednesday July 29, 1992
OEOB Room 450, 5pm
Thank you, and welcome to all you. What a pleasure to see so
many old friends.
[Acknowledgements].
You know, since Ronald Reagan left the White House, one
thing is noticeably absent from our cabinet room: the jar full of
jelly beans.
I remember that President Reagan often said that "you can
tell a lot about a fella's character by whether he picks out all
of one color or just grabs a handful." //Well, if we had that jar
back in the White House today, I guess Bill Reilly would like the
greens and Dick Cheney would hate the reds. //
Seriously, back once again with all of you, I'm reminded
that the crusade we began together in November 1980 still lives.
They call it the Reagan Revolution, and let me be clear: I
believed then, and I still believe, in this revolution.
And as I look around this room, I see the architects of some
of our country's most spectacular victories: the rebirth of the
American economy from the doldrums of the 1970s, the victory over
communism and the reinvigoration of our nation's defense, and --
perhaps most important -- the restoration of America's national
pride and purpose. Grand accomplishments -- each of them.
2
And a lot of credit must go to the man who put us on this
course of revival, one of our country's most beloved, most
spectacular leaders: Ronald Reagan.
As I look back on my decades of public service, there were
thousands of men and women I have met who worked tirelessly to
strengthen our country. But there is one thing I will never
forget: being at Ronald Reagan's side as he fought -- against all
odds -- to strengthen America and bring us a spirit of renewal
and hope. Ronald Reagan reminded Americans that we live in the
greatest of countries -- what he was fond of calling "a shining
city on a hill," and he challenged Americans to reach for higher
and higher levels of greatness. And, inspired by his leadership,
they answered his call.
Last November, out in Simi Valley, California, we dedicated
the Reagan library. I recalled then how Ronald Reagan was often
moved by Americans and their stories. Many times, he would write
out letters in longhand to these men and women, then ask that
they be retyped so that the recipients could read them. I always
viewed this as a sign that Ronald Reagan's motivation as.
president -- and his love for his job -- came not from his
awesome powers, not from mingling with Presidents and Prime
Ministers -- but from his contact with the everday citizens of a
country he loved.
You know, sometimes -- especially in the heat of a political
year -- it's easy to forget how far we've come. Think back a bit
to the world we faced before Ronald Reagan's arrival in
3
Washington: to the gas lines, a devastating combination of
double-digit inflation and unemployment -- called stagflation --
that was eating at the wallets of the American people, crippling
interest rates, the misery and malaise. Economic mismanagement,
social liberalism -- all these things were tearing apart the
American family and tearing down our nation.
And then, of course, if you're not already queasy enough,
there was the frightening global situation: A Soviet Union on the
march; the rise of hostile, totalitarian regimes in virtually
every region of the globe: Afghanistan, Iran, Nicaragua. It was a
world where terrorists stormed American embassies, then held
American officials for months -- as the Democrats' defense and
foreign policy establishment sat paralyzed with fear and with
indecision. Bleak days that I'm sure we'd all like to forget.
But we all know what happened next. Enter the Gipper. Ronald
Reagan brought us new vigor and hope. He sent the liberals and
their ideas packing. And then, with wide support from the
American people, he advanced his winning, conservative values --
his unblinking faith in the abilities of everyday Americans, his
appointment of judges who respect the original meaning of our
Constitution, and his conviction that, if government got out of
the way, there was nothing America could not achieve.
Today, as we look back on Ronald Reagan's presciptions, one
thing is clear: they worked. This is not what the liberal myth-
makers and their friends in the media want to hear. But on the
economic front, just look at the numbers: Between 1982 and 1989,
4
more than 20 million new jobs were created. Median family and
household incomes boosted to record highs. And, no matter how
much the critics try to distort this record, we need to be honest
in acknowledging that the gains were shared by all segments of
society -- all of America benefited. During the Reagan expansion
NEW
a full 85% of the bottom fifth of income earners in 1979 had
climbed to a higher level by 1988. And -- during this period --
York
more people had gone from the lowest income level to the highest
Times,
income level than remained stuck at the bottom.
7-26-92
The Reagan record will forever show this fact: Reaganomics
sparked the longest peacetime period of prolonged economic growth
in our country's history. No liberal spin -- no partisan
posturing -- can change that fact.
And then, of course, came our 40th President's challenge to
the Soviet Union. Correctly, Mr. Reagan looked at the Soviet
Union, its persecution of the religious, its invasion and
occupation of foreign lands, its denial of fundamental rights and
liberties -- and he called it like it was: an evil empire.
Then he went still further. He said that evil would not
stand. He challenged Moscow to choose between the forces of
liberty and those of tyranny. And with your support, we backed up
our rhetoric with the force that was needed to prevail -- we
countered the Warsaw Pact, which was gearing up for World War
III; we sent aid to freedom fighters from Afghanistan to Angola;
and we proudly let the forces of liberation know: Your cause is
our cause. We stand with you in the trenches against tyranny.
5
Who can forget Reagan's challenge at Brandenburg Gate: the
challenge that changed the correlation of forces forever.
Communism was on the run; and liberty was on the march. With guns
and tanks we defended Western Europe, but with words -- the power
of ideas and the promise of freedom -- we helped liberate that
continent's eastern half.
Without Ronald Reagan, and without many of you here today
who believed in his vision, these changes would never have
occured. And this is why, when I was running for president in
1988 and my opponent called for change, I was quick to remind
him: Sir, we are the change.
And, you know what, despite what you might be hearing from
the Democrats in the liberal Trojan horse, we're still the
change. The values that brought us to Washington in 1981 -- a
rejection of the failed tax-and-spend policies of the past,
support for faith and family, a belief in old-fashioned American
ingenuity, an understanding of the importance of God in our
lives, and an unswerving support for a strong America -- these
are the enduring values that continue to guide our crusade. These
are the values that Ronald Reagan stood for, and these are the
values that I continue to stand for.
Ronald Reagan and I always have shared a deep conviction
that government worthy of the peoples' trust could only be a
government that trusts the American people. Twelve years ago, we
began fighting for tax cuts that put our nation's economic future
back in the hands of the people. Today, we're continuing that
6
fight. We're fighting to reduce the tax burden on first-time home
buyers, to give parents the right to choose their children's
schools, to let parents, not the government, make important
decisions about child care, and to free the entrepreneurial
spirit by creating incentives for American business. I am
determined to see this revolution go forward because I trust the
American people and I have faith in their ability to keep this
country prosperous and standing tall.
But let me also issue a warning -- and I'll be blunt. Right
now, we are in the fight of our lives. All of the gains you and I
have made over the past twelve years are in jeopardy. I need your
help if we are going to continue moving America forward. And let
there be no mistake: beneath the slick packaging and the calls
for change, that is precisely what my opponents have to offer --
a return to the failed policies you and I have worked so
tirelessly to correct. And don't just take my word for it, listen
to another George -- George McGovern. He called this year's
Democratic ticket a "trojan horse," and he said, and I quote:
"They're much more liberal underneath
and they'll prove it when
they're elected."
I never thought I'd say this, but George McGovern -- what an
insightful man!
But this is one of the reasons that our opponents are
attacking not just me; they are out to deride and distort the
entire Reagan legacy. Well, let me say: They cannot be allowed to
7
prevail. We must finish what we start. The stakes are simply too
high.
So, let me congratulate you on the historic contributions
that all of you have made to our great nation. Keep up your
important work, and I hope that you will join me in continuing to
advance our mutual values over the coming 100 days.
Wendell Phillips once declared that "Revolutions never go
backward. " Neither can ours. Together, our revolution must
continue; it must go forward.
Thank you all very much.
Johns/Gershowitz
Draft four
July 28, 1992
PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS FOR REAGAN ALUMNI
Wednesday July 29, 1992
OEOB Room 450, 5pm
Thank you, and welcome to all you. What a pleasure to see so
many old friends.
[Acknowledgements].
You know, since Ronald Reagan left the White House, one
thing is noticeably absent from our cabinet room: the jar full of
jelly beans.
I once remember President Reagan saying that "you can tell a
lot about a fella's character by whether he picks out all of one
color or just grabs a handful." / /Well, if we had that jar back
in the White House today, I guess Bill Reilly would like the
greens and Dick Cheney would hate the reds. //
Seriously, back once again with all of you, I'm reminded
that the crusade we began together in November 1980 still lives.
They call it the Reagan Revolution, and let me be clear: I
believed then, and I still believe, in this revolution.
And as I look around this room, I see the architects of some
of our revolution's most spectacular victories: the rebirth of
the American economy from the doldrums of the 1970s, the victory
over communism and the reinvigoration of our nation's defense,
and -- perhaps most important -- the restoration of America's
national pride and purpose. Grand accomplishments -- each of
them.
/. Personal obervation
2.
WASH TNSA5/11/92 commentry
(RANK
PAUl 4099 Roberts-
During the cart. Admin
the top 1% got 100% of income
gains white the income of Middle
4 lower AMericaN(99%) incomestal.
PAGE
1
U.S. News & World Report, December 15, 1980
December 15, 1980
SECTION: Pg. 50
LENGTH: 1250 words
HEADLINE: Prosperity Without Inflation;
Interviews With Four Nobel Prize Winners
BYLINE: Milton Friedman;
Friedman, 68, received a Nobel in 1976 for his work in monetarism, the school of
economics that stresses the money supply. He is with the Hoover Institution at
Stanford University.
HIGHLIGHT:
Double-digit inflation, slow growth in output, millions of people out of work:
This is the economic thicket that entraps Americans and awaits President-elect
Ronald Reagan's administration.
Can the problems which have been building since the mid-1960s be solved?
What should the White House, Congress, the Federal Reserve do in the months
ahead? How much progress can people expect and how quickly? Above all, what
TM
TM
TM
LEXIS:NEXIS®
LEXIS-NEXIS®
LEXIS·NEXIS®
Services of Mead Data Central, Inc.
Recyclable
PAGE
33
12TH STORY of Level 1 printed in FULL format.
Copyright (c) 1980 American Banker
December 23, 1980, Tuesday
SECTION: Pg. 1
LENGTH: 1450 words
HEADLINE: OECD Forecast: More of Sluggish Same
BYLINE: By M.S. MENDELSOHN
DATELINE: LONDON
BODY:
A weak recovery of output, a slow and modest decline in inflation but another
steep rise in unemployment are the main developments forecast for the world's
industrialized countries over the coming 18 months by the Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development.
The forecasts are contained in the OECD's half-yearly Economic Outlook,
released in Paris for publication Tuesday. As usual, the forecasts are based on
present trends and policies. Also, they assume no further rise in real oil
prices, no significant changes in exchange relationships and the maintenance of
business confidence at present levels. If those assumptions are not realized,
output could be even weaker than forecast, the OECD warns.
The picture is not bleak in every respect. The combined current payments
deficit of the OECD's 24 member countries is forecast to shrink to about $40
billion in 1981 from about $73 billion in 1980, mainly on another strong
improvement in the American current surplus. The American surplus is forecast
to rise to almost $20 billion next year from an estimated $5 1/2 billion in
1980. If achieved, that would represent a massive swing of almost $35 billion
from the American deficit of $14 billion just two years ago, in 1978.
Energy Production Rises
More important is the "considerable success" achieved so far by the OECD
countries in reducing their dependence on imported oil. Conservation induced by
higher prices and by regulation have reduced energy use per unit of gross
national product by about 4% over the past two years. At the same time energy
production has risen by 4% in the OECD area since 1978 and, as a result, OECD's
net oil imports have fallen by about 10% during the past two years. Without the
war between Iran and Iraq, an excess of world oil supply over demand would have
been likely this year.
But apart from those brighter aspects, the prospects of stagflation with
sharply rising unemployment are distinctly discouraging, as painted by the OECD
secretariat. Real gross national product of the OECD area is estimated to have
fallen at an annual 3/4% on a seasonally adjusted basis during the six months
just ending. A gradual resumption of growth is projected from the start of next
year, rising from an annual rate of 1 1/2% in the first half of 1981 to an
annual 3% in the first half of 1982.
But even that annual 3% would be well below OECD growth during any of the
past 20 years excepting the two recession years of 1974 and 1975. The same is
TM
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34
(c) 1980 American Banker, December 23, 1980
true of the 1% growth in output forecast for the OECD area for 1981 as a whole,
which would be exactly the same as the sluggish growth estimated as having been
achieved in 1980.
À Little Recovery
The United States, accounting for 35% of OECD output, is the only major
economy for which an improvement in output is forecast. But it is a very modest
one -- from an estimated 3/4% fall in GNP during 1980 to a forecasted rise of
that same magnitude in 1981, which would leave America's real output of goods
and services almost exactly where it was in 1979.
Some economic recovery is also forecast for Canada and Spain, each accounting
for about 3% of OECD output, and for Denmark, Greece, Ireland and Turkey,
accounting between them for about 2 1/2% of OECD production.
Output in the other 15 OECD countries is expected to be lower in 1981 than
this year, although some upturn is forecast for most of them in the second half
of 1981 and the first half of 1982. The notable exception is the United
Kingdom, where output is expected to weaken again after a brief recovery in the
first half of next year.
In spite of the sluggish outlook for economic activity, nothing more than a
very modest cooling of inflation is projected. The American rate of consumer
price inflation is forecast to decline to no more than an average 10% next year
from an estimated 10 1/2% in 1980, and the rate for the whole of the OECD area
is forecast to decline only to about 9 3/4% in 1981 from an estimated 11 1/4% in
1980.
Wasted Human Resources
It is true that a gradual lowering of the annual inflation rate from about
10% to 8% is forecast for OECD's seven leading economies in the period to
mid-1982. But the 10% inflation rate forecast for the OECD area as a whole for
1981 would, if achieved, still be the highest since the rates of 13 1/2% in 1974
and 11 1/4% in 1975.
Even the marginal slowing of inflation foreseen by the OECD for the next 18
months is being bought at a staggering cost in terms of wasted human resources.
Unemployment in the area is expected to rise from 23 million to 25 1/2 million
over the coming Pyear and then do nothing better than level off. At the latter
figure, unemployment will have reached 7 1/2% of the OECD labor force, compared
with an average 3% in the 10 years to 1973, less than 5% in the five years to
1979 and a present level of 5 3/4%.
The OECD secretariat does not comment on the diminishing trade-off between
the achievement of even some minimal level of price stability and employment,
but the figures speak more strongly than any comment can.
Moreover, the average of 5 3/4% unemployment which exists in the OECD area
now and the 7 1/2% envisaged for about a year hence disguises a far higher
concentration of unemployment among young people under the age of 24, minority
groups and workers in declining regions and industries.
Oil Hikes Plus Monetarism
Furthermore, the flattening of unemployment in the OECD as a whole forecast
from mid-1982 would reflect almost entirely a decline projected in the
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(c) 1980 American Banker, December 23, 1980
American unemployment rate from 8% at present to 7 3/4% in 12 months. In Japan,
Germany, France, Britain, Italy and Canada, unemployment is expected to go on
rising to new peaks over the coming year.
The OECD secretariat puts some of the blame for the western world's present
difficulties on the 150% rise in world oil prices during the 18 months to
mid-1980. Because of that rise and even without allowing for the latest 10%
hike in nominal, though not in real, oil prices, the secretariat estimates that
total OECD gross national product in 1981 may be 6 1/2% or about $550 billion
lower than it might have been without the second oil "shock."
Nevertheless, the OECD secretariat implies that some of the industrial
world's present difficulties are the creation also of competitive monetarism.
Because of the high priority accorded to fighting inflation, there is a general
tendency to resist any action which might lead to depreciation of the exchange
rate. There is even a certain willingness to accept currency appreciation,
despite the implications for trade performance and the level of domestic
activity.
Will It Work on Large Scale?
"However," the report states, "while a single country can retard imported
inflation by tight policy, such as monetary policy, which tends to raise
interest rates and hence the exchange rate, there is a risk that if this were
attempted by too many countries, monetary conditions would be tighter than
generally warranted by purely domestic considerations, while having little or no
effect on effective exchange rates and hence imported inflation."
As to its forecasting record, the latest OECD report admits that this has
been weakest in years following major shocks to the world economy. OECD itself
does not go backwards in detail, but anyone who cares to compare forecasts of
the 1970s with what actually occurred will see that the OECD underestimated the
recession and inflation of 1974, the recovery of 1976 and the renewed inflation
of 1978.
A Good Record on Balance
But on the whole the secretariat's record has been a good one, and the
projections for the year now ending have proved extremely close to the result.
The OECD itself has warned that the risks to its forecast of a modest recovery
of output in the coming 18 months are on the downside. And its forecasts of a
moderation of inflationary pressures may prove to be hopeful -- even if output
does not in fact recover to the small extent now forecast.
Finally, a note for bank statisticians. The cut-off date for information
used in the latest OECD forecasts was November 17. In other words, the
forecasts do not take into account the most recent 10% rise in world oil prices.
That rise in itself, however, represents almost no rise in real terms and should
not therefore influence the forecasts to any degree that matters. As a rough
rule of thumb, the OECD stands by its formula that any 10% rise in real world
oil prices adds about 1% to OECD inflation while depressing OECD's economic
output by about 1/2%.
TM
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- Language by Chris Frenze, JOiNt ECON
COMM- 224-0373-
hi
On the economic front, just look at the numbers: Between 1982 to
1989 more than 20 million new jobs created. Median family and
household incomes boosted to record highs
we need to be
honest in acknowledging that the gains were shared by all
segments of society -- all America benefitted. During the Reagan
expansion, the bottom 20 percent of income earners saw their
incomes climb 12 percent; middle American family incomes rose 13
percent.
V YORK TIMES FORUM SUNDAY, JULY 26, 1992
13
me to Get Back to Reaganomics
Unfortunately, the Congressional Budget Office
years. In 1980 alone, the poorest 20 percent suf-
numbers are seriously flawed. They attribute far
fered losses that offset all Reagan-era gains.
too much income to the "rich," while shortchang-
When these corrections are made, the share of
ing the middle class and poor.
pretax income growth received by the top per-
By counting only taxable income, for example,
cent during the 1980 to 1989 period falls to 38
the budget office excludes the untaxed proceeds
percent, according to the budget office. Oncan
from the sale of a home, as well as capital gains
after-tax basis, only 25 percent of income growth
accruing to middle-class families in the form of
during this period went to the top 1 percent.
pension funds. The budget office ignores the value
of housing subsidies, Medicaid and other in-kind
W
HILE the rich as a class got richer during
transfers, which account for a growing share of
the 1980's, the individuals that comprise
income received by the poor.
the "rich" and the "poor" changed dra-
According to the budget office's estimates, the
matically. A recent Treasury Department study
average income of the top 1 percent of families
tracing the income reported by 14,351 taxpayers
William E. Sauro/The New York Times
increased from $289,743 (in 1990 dollars) in 1977, to
between 1979 and 1988 found that 53 percent of
$548,970 in 1990, a 94.2 percent rise. Capital gains,
individuals in the top 1 percent in 1979 had dropped
up 171 percent, was allegedly the fastest-growing
to lower rungs by 1988. This sample was restricted
By EDWIN S. RUBENSTEIN
source of income for this well-heeled group.
to individuals who filed tax returns each year,
But the budget office failed to adjust capital
thereby understating mobility since people are,
ssertions have been made, in a number
gains for inflation. By its reckoning, someone who
always dropping out or coming into the system
ticles in this paper and others, that the
bought an asset for $50,000 in 1977 and sold it for
Of those in the bottom quintile, the Treasury,
hiest 1 percent of American families
$100,000 in 1990 had a capital gain of $50,000, even
study found 85.8 percent had climbed to a higher
60 percent of the total income growth
though - adjusted for inflation - the asset really
quintile by 1988. Only 14.2 percent remained stuck
1980's. The evidence for these claims -
sold for less than its purchase price. In a letter to
at the bottom while 14.7 percent rose to the top.
by Presidential candidate Bill Clinton
Congress in March, Robert Reischauer, director of
quintile. In other words, a person in the bottom
eptance speech at the Democratic Na-
the Congressional Budget Office, acknowledged an
quintile in 1979 was more likely to be found in the
vention - is based on an analysis of data
overstatement of $134 billion from this error.
top quintile than in the bottom quintile in 1988.
Congressional Budget Office done by
The analysis also errs in choosing 1977 to 1989 as
Unfortunately, these positive trends have been
I Krugman of the Massachusetts Insti-
the period to appraise growth for the 80's. Census
ignored by the budget office, Mr. Krugman and
chnology.
data show that 85 percent of the income decline
Mr. Clinton. They should know better. As a result,
allegedly suffered by the middle fifth of families
income mobility remains the "dirty little secret,'
Rubenstein is economics analyst at the
actually occurred between 1977 and 1980. The
of the fairness debate. It's time to get back to
nal Review.
suffering was in the Carter years, not the Reagan
Reaganomics.
1979
JUNE
Su
Mo
Tu
We
Th
Fr
Sa
Pope says mass for million in native Poland
Brezhnev, Carter
1
2
June 10. Pope John Paul II ended
sign SALT II pact
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
his unprecedented nine-day trip to
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
his native Poland today with a mass
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
attended by over one million people.
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
It was the first pontifical visit ever
to a Communist country, which is
officially atheist.
1. Carter denounces Mobil for
The political tone of the pope's
opposing decontrol of oil prices
speeches was muted in today's ser-
(- 28).
mon, in which John Paul exhorted
1. Nicaragua: Sandinistas open
the Polish people to be "strong with
long-awaited offensive (- 6).
the strength which comes from
2. Washington: Assassination
faith." Today's mass commemorat-
inquiry final report backs theory
ed Poland's patron saint, St. Stan-
of plot on JFK.
islaus. Because the government re-
2. Warsaw: Pope John Paul II
fused to allow the pope to visit on
welcomed to homeland (- 10).
the saint's actual anniversary, the
3. New York: 15,000 protest at
Polish Catholic Church officially
Shoreham nuclear plant; 600
delayed the feast until the pope
arrested (- 10/14).
Polish Catholics welcome the Pope.
arrived (- 9/29).
East and West, a shaky love affair.
3. Paris: Borg beats Victor Pecci
in French Open final.
4. South Africa: President
Somoza states he
June 18. President Carter and
First elections held
Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev ex-
Vorster resigns (- 1/25/80).
6. U.S. halts all DC-10 flights
for Europe assembly
is ready to resign
changed American-style hand-
shakes and Russian-style embraces
pending safety inquiry (- 7/13).
as they signed a new arms control
6. Managua: Somoza declares
June 10. Socialists and Social
June 29. General Anastasio So-
agreement in Vienna. Carter
state of siege (- 17).
Democrats won the largest number
moza Debayle offered yesterday to
warned that "a nuclear arms compe-
7. Carter approves MX missile
of seats in the first direct elections
resign as President of Nicaragua,
tition without shared rules
would
program (- 18).
ever for a European Parliament.
but rebel leaders rejected the pro-
be an invitation to disaster."
9. Carter's approval rating hits
They each captured 25% of the vote
posal today. They also accused the
For the first time, the United
all-time low of 30% in poll.
as elections were held in nine coun-
United States of meddling in Nic-
States and the Soviet Union are
12. American Bryan Allen
tries. Conservative parties, Com-
aragua's internal affairs. Somoza
limited to a maximum number of
pedals plane across English
munists and liberals trailed behind.
has insisted that the National
long-range missiles and bombers.
Channel.
The first President of the Parlia-
Guard and the Liberal Party be
The pact does allow them, however,
15. Malaysia to put 70,000
ment is a woman, Simone Veil, for-
given a role in a transitional govern-
to produce an unlimited number of
Vietnamese refugees back out to
sea (- 7/20).
merly Minister of Health in France.
ment. But opposition groups de-
warheads. Both leaders pledged to
The actual power of the organiza-
manded Somoza be replaced once
improve the pact in the future.
16. Calif.: Evelyn Ashford
breaks 11-second barrier in
tion in the Common Market will be
and for all. For the past month, civil
First, this accord has to overcome
women's 100-meter dash.
fairly limited, but it will consult
war has ripped Nicaragua in half;
Senate opposition. And Brezhnev,
17. Managua: Rebels name five
with the Council of Europe on fairly
and Somoza's forces have been on
who looked pale in Vienna, has to
to form provisional govt. (- 23).
important matters. Many voters in
the defensive (- 7/16).
overcome his illness (- 9/7).
19. New York: Ed "Too Tall"
Europe seemed to yawn their way
Jones to quit football and take up
through these elections. In Great
boxing.
Britain, nearly 70% of the eligible
The Duke is dead: Star of great westerns
22. New York: Larry Holmes
electorate did not bother to vote.
KO's Mike Weaver in 12th
Absenteeism was 40% in France.
June 11. The Duke is dead; long
round to keep title.
By comparison, West Germans
live the memory of John Wayne,
23. Washington: OAS calls for
streamed to the voting booth.
who starred in countless westerns
ouster of Somoza (-> 29).
and epitomized the strong, silent
24. Lebanon: Israel bombs eight
man. Wayne died in Los Angeles
towns after blast in Tel Aviv
this afternoon at the age of 72. He
(- 27).
had suffered from lung and stomach
26. Newark: Ali announces
cancer, a bout well-publicized.
retirement (- 10/2/80).
Marion Morrison became John
27. U.S. Supreme Court upholds
Wayne when his mentor, John
affirmative action (- 8/9).
Ford, renamed him. He rode in B
27. Lebanon: Israeli, Syrian
westerns until Ford cast him in the
planes clash first time in five
brilliant "Stagecoach" in 1939.
years (- 7/25).
Conservative Wayne invested
28. Geneva: OPEC raises oil
millions in "The Alamo," in which
prices 16%, now up 50% in last
Mexicans are bad guys, Americans
year (- 7/15).
all good. Ironically, all three of the
European Parliament in Strasbourg.
Duke's wives were Hispanic.
The Duke, archetypal western hero.
1156
1979
1979
Isle of Man Parliament is 1,000 years old
Chrysler Corp. asks
Su Mo Tu We Th Fr
U.S. for $1 billion
1
5
6
7
8
10
12
13
14
15
16
17
July 31. The Chrysler Corpora-
18
19
20
21
22
23
tion reported the largest quarterly
24
25
26
27
28
29
loss in its history today and said it
30
31
was asking the federal government
for $1 billion in cash over the next
18 months to keep the company
1. London: Thatcher assails
afloat. Chrysler's Chairman, John J.
Nigeria's nationalization of Brit-
ish oil interests 8/8/80)-
Riccardo, said he was confident the
government would help the com-
3. U.N. reports 2.5 mil starving
in Cambodia; relief efforts stalled
pany to avoid the possible loss of
by rival governments (-19)
250,000 jobs by its auto workers.
7. Tehran: Leading
Chrysler lost $207 million in the
closed in crackdown (+12)
latest quarter and has run out of
8. Detroit: Chrysler lays off
cash, Riccardo said. The company
4,600 more wor (4/12/20).
has no recourse but to ask the gov-
8. Iraq: Lofficials executed
ernment for aid, said Lee Iacocca,
plotting revolt.
who was recently named President
9 Alabama: Klansmen bez
Millenial celebrations: Norsemen conquered the Isle of Man in the 9th century.
of the troubled company (- 8/8).
mile "white rights Salina
to Montgomery (-10/18).
July 5. The Parliament of the Isle
designated this their Parliament's
of Man has passed only 18 laws this
millenium. It is not known exactly
Court removes bar
11. India: Dam in Goudierat
bursts, killing hundred
year. It hasn't been hampered by
when a band of Vikings landed on
filibusters; there simply aren't many
to minors' abortions
12. Tehran: Hundreds injured
the windswept shores and formed a
riots over closing of major
things left to legislate after 1,000
ruling body they called Tynwald.
newspaper + 10/22)
years of operation. Queen Elizabeth
Now the Tynwald recognizes the
July 2. "Please, ma, can I have an
14. U.S. drops rule barring
II and dignitaries from several
queen as its sovereign, and some
abortion?" That unlikely request
suspected homosexuals from
democracies attended a ceremony
islanders petitioned her today, seek-
need never be made, now that the
entering country (-8/17/84)
today marking the birthday of the
ing a retention of birching or cor-
Supreme Court has ruled a minor
14. Britain: 18 drown in store
oldest continuous Parliament.
poral punishment. The European
may seek an abortion without paren-
during yacht race.
Manxmen, whose island lies near-
Court of Human Rights has forbid-
tal consent. The 8-to-1 decision
15. Zurich: Sebastian Coe sets
ly equidistant from Scotland, Ire-
den the practice, but 75 percent of
shoots down a Massachusetts law
record in 1,500-meters at
land and England, had arbitrarily
Manxmen find it jolly good.
requiring unmarried girls under age
19, Soviet cosmonauts Lyakhov
to get permission for an abortion
and Ryomine end record
Algeria frees Ben Bella, held for 14 years
from parents or a court judge. Jus-
175-day space trip (+7/18/80)
tice Byron White gave the only dis-
20. Florida: Dians Nyad swims?
senting vote, saying it seemed "in-
60 miles from Bahamas to UST
July 4. This was liberation day in
fervent nationalist is 62, and much
conceivable
that the United
21. Iran executes 18 Kurdish
Algeria for Ahmed Ben Bella. The
of the country seems to have forgot-
States Constitution forbids even no-
rebels (-9/2)
hero of Algerian independence and
ten him.
tice to parents when their minor
21. Nicaragua: Sandinistas ban
former President was freed after 14
Ben Bella was a key leader in
child who seeks surgery object to
capital punishment, restore
years of house arrest. The once
Algeria's struggle to win its freedom
such notice" (- 3/23/81).
human rights laws 10/17)
from France. In 20 years, he rose
21. New York: Two men steal
from a sergeant in the army to pres-
$2 mil. from Brink's truck:
ident in 1963. Ben Bella drifted
Amnesty is granted
22. Puerto Rico: U.S. basketball
toward Moscow, improved ties with
coach Bobby Knight given MI
Peking and became a spokesman for
to many Iranians
months for assaulting policeman.
the non-aligned countries. He con-
24, Washington: Carter side
tinued to criticize France, but still
July 9. Ayatollah Khomeini,
Hamilton Jordan denies taking
cocaine at Studio 54 (- 9/26)
managed to win $200 million in aid
faced with growing resistance to his
regime, declared a general amnesty
27. Ireland: Lord Mountbatten
from Paris every year.
Houari Boumedienne deposed
today for Iranians who committed
killed by IRA bomb on fishing
boat (+ 30).
Ben Bella in 1965 and ordered him
crimes when the Shah was in power;
30. New York: 11 banks robbed
arrested. He was too popular and
3,000 political prisoners are expect-
in one day placing total for
too threatening. In recent years, the
ed to be freed. The amnesty does
month at 137.
status of Ben Bella has been some-
not cover Iranians accused or con-
thing of an embarassment to Alge-
victed of murder and torture. The
DEATHS
ria. Yugoslavia's President Tito
ayatollah's announcement is in-
2. Thurman Munson, N.Y.
and Cuba's Fidel Castro have often
tended to discourage further attacks
Yankee catcher (°6/7/1947)
inquired about him. Algeria's new
against his supporters. There has
21. James Farrell, American
President, Chadli Benjedid, appar-
been widespread dissatisfaction in
realist writer (*2/27/1904).
ently thinks Ben Bella is too old to
Iran to the executions of 200 people
Ahmed Ben Bella, led 1954 revolt.
do any harm.
since Khomeini returned (-, 23).
1158
whose ramny nas Tuica
5. Iran nationalizes most remain-
ing heavy industry (- 9).
Nicaragua since 1933, was to be
succeeded in power by a five-man
7. Wimbledon: Borg over Roscoe
Tanner 6-7, 6-1, 3-6, 6-3, 6-4;
junta controlled by the Sandinistas.
Navratilova over Evert Lloyd
A momentary hitch developed in
6-4, 6-4.
the plan when Francisco Uryco
11. Australia: Skylab, destroyed
Malianos, the President of the
by re-entry, sinks in ocean off
Chamber of Deputies who was to
coast (- 8/19).
serve as a transitional President,
12. Spain: 71 killed, 47 hurt in
at first declined to surrender power
est, a shaky love affair.
hotel fire.
to the junta.
12. New York: Mob boss
Somoza, who said he had been
Jubilant Sandinistas hoist their flag over a government building in Managua.
President Carter and
Carmine Galante slain.
driven from power by a Communist
er Leonid Brezhnev ex-
13. U.S.: FAA ends grounding of
conspiracy, left behind a nation
American-style hand-
DC-10's.
devastated by civil war with fighting
Russian-style embraces
15. Ankara: PLO gunmen end
continuing in several regions of the
ed a new arms control
siege at Egyptian Embassy;
country. Several thousand persons
in Vienna. Carter
release nine hostages.
were believed to have been killed in
"a nuclear arms compe-
16. Managua: Somoza retires
the fighting in the past two months
it shared rules would
100 senior officers (- 17).
and 500,000 persons-one fifth of
tion to disaster."
17. Carter's Cabinet and all
the country's population-have
first time, the United
members of senior staff offer
been displaced from their homes.
the Soviet Union are
resignations (- 19).
Within days after the revolution-
maximum number of
17. Oslo: Sebastian Coe sets mile
ary junta had taken power, fissures
missiles and bombers.
record at 3:49.0.
began developing in the unusual co-
es allow them, however,
17. Nicaragua: Somoza over-
alition of conservative businessmen
in unlimited number of
thrown; exiled to U.S. (- 25).
and Marxist rebels that had op-
Both leaders pledged to
19. Portugal gets first woman
posed the authoritarian Somoza
e pact in the future.
president, Maria de Lourdes
regime. A business group expressed
Pintassilgo (- 4/25/83).
ccord has to overcome
concern that the new government
sition. And Brezhnev,
20. Geneva: Vietnam urges U.S.
would not fulfill its pledge to
pale in Vienna, has to
to accept more refugees as talks
open (- 21).
encourage private enterprise
S illness (- 9/7).
(- 8/21).
Somoza, last in 46-year-old dynasty.
Rebel wrecks remnant of regime.
21. Geneva: Vietnam to try to
halt exodus of refugees (- 28).
westerns
22. Bernard Hinault wins Tour
Limit proposed on
Major shifts made
Marcuse, father of
de France second time.
23. Iran: Khomeini bans broad-
oil imports by U.S.
in Carter Cabinet
New Left, is dead
cast music, charging it corrupts
youth (- 8/7).
July 15. President Carter tonight
July 19. A dramatic reshuffling of
July 29. Marxist philosopher
25. Israel turns over another part
of Sinai to Egypt (- 9/24).
proposed a six-point package of en-
his Cabinet was announced today
Herbert Marcuse has died at age 81.
ergy measures, including a limit on
by President Carter in Washington.
The German-American college pro-
28. U.S. to double quota for
Indochinese refugees (- 11/24).
oil imports, designed to save 4.5
Joseph A. Califano Jr. was forced
fessor was embraced by 60's radicals
billion gallons of oil a day by 1990.
out as Secretary of Health, Educa-
for his opposition to the "repressive
29. Madrid: Blasts at airport and
rail stations kill four, injure 113;
His televised speech was a response
tion and Welfare, to be succeeded by
monolith," American society. He
claimed by Basques (- 10/25).
to a 50 percent price increase over
Patricia Roberts Harris, now the
advocated the use of violence, but
the past year by the Organization of
Secretary of Housing and Urban
only as "counterviolence" to an op-
DEATHS
Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Development. Treasury Secretary
pressive, non-negotiating force.
10. Arthur Fiedler, conductor of
Carter assailed what he called a
W. Michael Blumenthal resigned,
Many scholars scoffed at his pre-
Boston Pops (*12/17/1894).
"crisis of confidence" among Amer-
to be replaced by G. William Miller,
scriptions for a revolution led by a
22. "Two Ton" Tony Galento,
icans as he announced "the most
Chairman of the Federal Reserve
coalition of urban blacks, radical
heavyweight boxer, knocked
massive peacetime commitment of
Board. And Attorney General
students and white intellectuals, but
down Joe Louis (*3/12/1910).
funds and resources in our nation's
Griffin B. Bell resigned. His re-
few could deny his brilliance. "One
history" to reduce American de-
placement will be Benjamin R.
Dimensional Man" and "Eros and
chetypal western hero.
pendence on foreign oil (- 11/26).
Civiletti (- 8/3).
Civilization" are his best works.
1157