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Illinois State Fair 8/23/92 [OA 7578]
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Illinois State Fair 8/23/92 [OA 7578]
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26
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7
3
THE WHITE HOUSE
Office of the Press Secretary
(Springfield, Illinois)
For Immediate Release
August 23, 1992
REMARKS BY THE PRESIDENT
TO THE SPRINGFIELD COMMUNITY
Illinois State Fairgrounds
Springfield, Illinois
1:07 P.M. CDT
THE PRESIDENT: Thank you, thank you. (Applause.)
Thank you, Jim Edgar. You in Illinois are lucky to have Jim
Edgar and Brenda here in Springfield, I'll tell you. (Applause.)
And, of course, I'm very pleased that Illinois' own, Ed Madigan,
is our Secretary of Agriculture. He understands it and he's
doing a great job. (Applause.)
May I salute Bob Kustra, the Lieutenant Governor,
and his wife Kathy; and old friend of mine, the Secretary of
State George Ryan, and Lura Lynn. George has been at my side
through a lot of political battles, and I'm very grateful to him.
May I salute a good member of Congress -- if we had more like him
we wouldn't need to clean House. I'm talking about
Representative Thomas Ewing here. (Applause.)
And two others that I want to single out because as
we talk about change, real change to help this country, we've got
to change the Clinton-Gore gridlocked Congress. We've got to
change it. (Applause.) And in Rich Williamson running for the
Senate we have a man that can do just exactly that. He's with
you on the values, he's with us on taxing less and spending less.
He's with us on the fundamentals, and we must have him in the
United States Senate. (Applause.)
And I want to see John Shimkus elected from the 20th
District. (Applause.)
I am going to do what Harry Truman did. In this
campaign, no, it's not give 'em hell, but they're going to think
it's hell when I get through with them. But here's what it is.
(Applause.) Look, I'll tell you why I'm going to do it this way.
For months, I've held out my hand to the Congress only to have it
bitten off. And now I am starting right here in Illinois. The
Congressman from this district voted against us on Desert storm.
He tried to bring legal papers against me. He is against the
balanced budget amendment. And I want John Shimkus to replace
him in the United States Congress. (Applause.)
We've had it. We've had it with this gridlocked
Congress. The American people have told Barbara and me, here are
our values. And they said -- agreed with me in the election
-- here's what we want to do. And it hasn't worked because the
Congress blocks us at every turn. You've got to turn out these
-- no matter how nice they are, how kind they talk about the
farmer when they come back here, look at the record. Don't let
them talk one way in Illinois and vote differently in Washington,
D.C. (Applause.)
And let me just say it is really great to be back in
Springfield. Lincoln, you recall -- Abraham, that is -- said of
this -- he said, "To this place and the kindness of these people
I owe everything." I think he had good taste in political
parties. I think he had great taste in hometowns. (Applause.)
MORE
- 2 -
And, as you know -- you know, until Houston I stayed
out of the actual political arena, and I stayed out of it because
I was trying to get some things done to bring tax relief,
incentives for the first-time homebuyer, investment tax
allowance, reduction in capital gains, trying to get those done
for the farmer and for the American people. (Applause.)
But I felt like one of those corndogs at the fair --
skewered by the Democratic opposition for nine months. And
that's changing -- it changed as of Houston and it's going to
change for every single of the remaining 73 days. (Applause.)
You know, we've had dramatic change. I see these
kids here. And you do not hear a word about this from the
Democratic Convention. Don't you think it's a wonderful thing
that these young kids go to bed at night without the same fear of
nuclear war that the generations precedent had? (Applause.)
This is big. This is important.
So we've got our priorities. And one of them
affects every single Illinois farmer -- we must open markets
abroad. We will get a GATT agreement. We've gotten a NAFTA
agreement. And we cannot go for protection. (Applause.)
One fact: One-third of the corn and soybeans grown
in Illinois head for markets outside the United States. And if
we can get that playing field level, if we get access to foreign
markets, it means bonanza for the farmers in this country. They
can outproduce anybody, outhustle them, outwork them.
(Applause.) And so, open trade, free trade without apology is
what I believe in and the case I'm taking to the American people.
Illinois farmers and workers feel that the government takes too
much and gives too little. And so, when next year Congress comes
back in, I pledge a dramatic new effort to slash federal spending
and then get these taxes down. (Applause.)
Listen to the opponents on this one. It's
wonderful, new --
AUDIENCE: Clean House --
THE PRESIDENT: Yes, as soon as we get a Congress in
that will do it. And I want to cut spending and taxes. And he
accuses me of fearmongering? He's wrong. Capital gains is one
right there. That's a good place to start. Get the income taxes
down. And if you'll excuse me one political comment -- I have a
message for Governor Clinton: Americans aren't afraid of cutting
spending and lowering taxes. They fear most of all a rubber-
stamp president that will rubber-stamp this spendthrift Congress.
(Applause.) So there. We're not going to let that nightmare
happen.
You know, I think that you all understand perhaps as
well as any in America -- certainly is true in rural America --
the values, what we're talking about when we talk about family
values. And here we learn that the family is there to teach us
right from wrong, to lend a helping hand to a neighbor, respect
for the law, hold out your hand to help somebody else, wipe a
tear away when something goes wrong.
Now, Barbara and I try to impart these values to our
kids and grandkids. And I have great respect for what she has
done, helping with literacy, helping other Americans to have a
better life. (Applause.)
You know, today the American family is under attack,
and we've got to defend it, because it is the foundation of our
nature. (Applause.) And that is why, when we cut government
spending I will fight for an increase in the personal income tax
exemption so more Americans can afford to build and strengthen
their families. (Applause.)
MORE
- 3 -
We're going to reform the welfare program to
encourage families to stick together and have fathers stick
around and do what they ought to do. (Applause.)
I see the signs out here of the teachers -- God
bless those people that teach our young people. (Applause.) And
we have proposed the most far-reaching reform in American
education in a century, and with a new Congress we will get it
passed. We need to reform education, "support the teachers and be
sure these kids can grow up in a competitive world number one.
(Applause.)
And I'll give you another idea why I want to change
this Congress. I mentioned it in Houston. We are suing each
other too much and caring for each other too little. (Applause.)
And we have been trying for three years to reform the legal
liability laws so that you don't have these excessive suits that
drive doctors out of medicine, drive Little League coaches out of
Little League. Locked in that gridlocked Congress by Bill
Clinton and the liberal leadership in Washington. We've got to
change it. We have got to change that gridlocked Congress.
We've got to clean House. (Applause.)
Let me just say in conclusion, two years ago I made,
I think, the toughest decision that a President can make, and
that is to send America's sons and daughters into battle -- the
sons and daughters of Illinois and every other state; fought
against aggression; fought to keep a people free; fought to
prevent the Mideast from becoming a nuclear powder keg. And now
they have come home, and this election, like every other is about
making an America that they can be proud of. An America we all
can be proud of -- good jobs, safe streets and strong families.
(Applause.)
And so I ask your support not to change for the sake
of change, but to change America to make it more secure, more
safe, more promising to every young person here today.
May God bless you all. And thank you for this
fantastic rally. I am so proud to be back. (Applause.) Four
more! (Applause.)
END
1:20 P.M. CDT
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OFFICE OF
PRESIDENTIAL ADVANCE
COVER PAGE
TO: JENNIFER GROSSMAN
FROM:
COWLING. SPRINGFIELD, IL
TOTAL NUMBER OF PAGES:
33
(including cover page)
DATE: 8/21/92
TIME:
10:40
MESSAGE:
MATERIAL RECEIVED FROM THE
ILLINOIS CORN GROWERS Assoc.
RE: ETHANOL / ALSO HAVE@ 5O PAGE
PROTOCOL (HIGHLY TECHNICAL) FOR THEIR
STUDY WHICH im NOT SENDING
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR PROBLEMS WITH THE TRANSMISSION PLEASE CALL.
TELEPHONE NUMBER:
AUG-21-1992 11:40 FROM SPRINGFIELD STAFF OFC
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ILLINOIS
CORN
GROWERS
ASSOCIATION P.O. Box 1623 Bloomington, Illinois 61702-1623 Ph. (309) 557-3257
August, 1992
TO WHOM IT MAY CONCERN:
The Illinois Corn Growers Association is committed to pursuing the additional scientific
information needed to allow ethanol to participate in the reformulated gasoline program. We
strongly believe ethanol will improve the environment, move our nation toward renewable fuels
and away from petroleum based fuels, and improve the economy of both rural and urban areas
throughout the U.S.
Enclosed are the Final Reports on an ethanol blended gasolines's effect on the Chicago Airshed.
This work demonstrates ethanol when blended with gasoline will not exacerbate ozone pollution
even though the reid vapor pressure increases, thus volatile organic compounds increase. This
compensation effect occurs due to the higher oxygen content and lower reactivity of the VOC's
emissions of ethanol blend gasoline.
We hope you find this information helpful, and feel free to call on us as you have questions.
Sincerely,
ILLINOIS CORN GROWERS ASSOCIATION
Scott Durbin
Scott Durbin
President
SD:ah
Enclosures
ILLINOIS CORN GROWERS ASSOCIATION
P.O. BOX 1623
BLOOMINGTON, ILLINOIS 61702-1623
SCOTT DURBIN
RR 1, Box 95
District XI Director
Owaneco, IL 62555
(217) 879-2306
Printed with corn-sov ink on re-cvcled paper
AUG-21-1992
11:40
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ILLINOIS
CORN
GROWERS
ASSOCIATION
P.O. Box 1623 Bloomington, Illinois 61702-1623 Ph. (309) 557-3257
OVERVIEW OF ETHANOL IMPACT ON OZONE
IN CHICAGO REGION IN 1995
The Illinois Corn Growers Association initiated this project to provide the needed
scientifically based information to enable ethanol to play a role in reformulated gasoline (RFG).
The U.S. EPA has proposed rules that, if implemented, will inhibit ethanol's participation in
RFG which could potentially eliminate the ethanol industry after the turn of the century. The
Chicago region in 1995 is modeled using the latest urban airshed model (UAM-V) which
minimizes the impact of pollutants transported from other areas through the use of nested grids.
(see attachments A and B) A nested grid system is defined as having a finer grid within a
courser grid which enables data on emissions to flow via weather patterns throughout the entire
modeled area. The finer grid system is capable of much more detail and depicts the activity of
the non attainment area. There were some 20,000 grid cells used, including 7 vertical layers.
The emissions originating and flowing into and out of each grid are simulated; photochemical
reactions and ozone formation are computed. To provide the meteorological conditions of an
ozone episode, 21-22 July, 1987 was chosen as it is the best currently available data from the
ongoing Lake Michigan Oxidant Study (LMOS). Emissions data for this study compared a 10%
ethanol blend with an 11% methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) blend which meets the proposed
(RFG) requirements with regard to volatility and oxygen.
Results
The study, to date, shows that although there is an increase in evaporative volatile
organic compounds (VOC) when gasoline and ethanol are blended, there is a minute increase
in ozone when ethanol is compared to MTBE. The study indicated ethanol's increase in ozone
pollution, when compared to MTBE, was .0001 parts per million (ppm), a number which is
scientifically insignificant. The standard for attainment is 0.12 ppm so the simulated increase
of 0.0001 ppm represents less than 0.1 percent.
A 10% ethanol blend contains 75% more oxygen than an 11% MTBE blend. The
Chicago UAM-V demonstrates that this extra oxygen compensates for the increased evaporative
VOC emissions due to the net of the three following benefits:
1.
Carbon monoxide (CO) emissions, an ozone precursor, are reduced by the
additional oxygen in the fuel. The 75% more oxygen that the ethanol contains
causes an even larger reduction in CO than the MTBE blend.
2.
In addition, the increased oxygen in the ethanol blended gasoline reduces the
exhaust VOC emissions which are more reactive in forming ozone than the
evaporative VOC emissions increased by the ethanol blended gasoline.
Printed with corn-soy ink on re-cycled paper
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3.
Even though evaporative VOC emissions are higher from an ethanol blended
gasoline, they are lower in reactivity than the evaporative emissions of the
original gasoline. The 10% ethanol (low reactivity) dilutes the high boiling
fraction which contains the most reactive aromatics.
The sum of these three benefits offsets ethanol blend's increase in mass VOC emissions
causing a minute net increase in ozone formation.
Conclusion
The results of this study clearly call into question the U.S. EPA's proposed rules for
reformulated gasoline which focuses on reid vapor pressure (rvp) as the test method to be used
in determining the ozone forming potential of VOC's of a given fuel. Where rvp is a good,
easily regulated method to test all hydrocarbon based fuels, it does not take into account all the
benefits of ethanol blended reformulated gasolines. This study also demonstrates that all VOC's
are not created equally in their ozone forming potential. It is clear that regulating mass VOC
emissions without consideration of reactivity may cause the full benefits of the Clean Air Act
Amendments to be unrealized.
The Illinois Corn Growers Association believes that the results of this study, to date,
should be carefully reviewed by the U.S. EPA. ICGA will request a regulation granting ethanol
a 1 pound per square inch rvp waiver for reformulated gasoline to also be applied to VOC
reduction requirements. This will assure fair treatment of ethanol in the Clean Air Act.
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ATTACHMENT A
177
447
717
20
4946
10
4676
A
°°
10
4406
20
A: (177,4406) 25x29 27KM CELLS
B: (312,4514) 42x45 9KM CELLS
FIGURE 1. UAM-V modeling domain for the July 1987 ozone episode in the
Chicago region.
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Attachment B
Grid model Structure of the Urban Airshed Model
Region Top
Chemistry
Elevated Emissions
AZ
Entrainment
Stable
Layer
Chemistry
Diffusion Break/
Elevated Emissions
Inversion
Chemistry
Mixed
Elevated Emissions
Layer
Ground
Chemistry
Level
Elevated Emissions
Chemistry
T
Area Emissions
D = Dry deposition
Deposition
E = Area source emissions
T = Transport
AX
AX
B D
Mass Balance for a Stationary Incremental
Volume in a Grid Analysis
The Change in Concentration in a
Given Time Equals the Sum of:
Z
- Loss by dispersion-diffusion into next box (K)
+ Inflow by
+ - Gain/Loss due to reactions (R)
advection/
K
- Outflow by advection
diffusion
E
D
X
y
+ Addition due to source emissions (E)
Loss by deposition (D)
ill/gzw001
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Final Report
COMPARISON OF THE AIR QUALITY EFFECTS
OF ETHANOL AND MTBE IN REFORMULATED
GASOLINE IN THE CHICAGO REGION IN 1995
Volume 2: Results
SYSAPP-92/086b
July 29, 1992
Prepared for
Illinois Corn Growers Association
2415 East Washington
Bloomington, Illinois 61704
Prepared by
Gary Z. Whitten
Systems Applications International
101 Lucas Valley Road
San Rafael, California 94903
415/507-7100
K2901 92068
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Contents
1 INTRODUCTION
1
2 RESULTS
2
3 DISCUSSION
17
Comparison with AQIRP Results
17
4 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
22
Conclusions
22
Recommendations
23
References
25
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1 INTRODUCTION
Volume 1 of this report includes the modeling protocol used in this study, and compares
it with the publicly available information on the protocol used in the Auto/Oil Air Quality
Improvement Research Program (AQIRP) modeling evaluation of ethanol blends. This
volume presents the results of a modeling study of the impacts on air quality of using
ethanol blends in reformulated gasoline (RFG) in the Chicago region for the year in
1995. The purpose of this modeling study was to determine whether the higher oxygen
content of a 10 percent ethanol/RFG blend, when compared to an 11 percent MTBE/RFG
blend, can compensate for the higher volatility of the ethanol/RFG blend. The latest
version of the Urban Airshed Model (UAM-V) was used to estimate the extent of this
compensation in the Chicago region in 1995. The results show a very small ozone
increase (<0.0001 ppm) over that of the MTBE blend applied to the same simulation
scenario. Evidence is given to support what appears to be compensation of the higher
volatility of the ethanol blend by the extra available oxygen. Recommendations to help
resolve some remaining uncertainties are given at the conclusion of this volume.
Where information has been made available in the public domain, we discuss the AQIRP
results in relation to those generated by this study. An attempt is made to understand and
explain the differences that exist between these two studies.
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2 RESULTS
A detailed description of the objective and protocol for this study is presented in Volume
1 of this report. An overview is provided in this section for continuity.
The recent Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) and subsequent regulation negotiations
("Reg Neg") have left the ethanol industry facing a need to meet lower volatility
requirements than is obtained by merely adding ethanol to a clear gasoline can easily
meet. Such splash-blending of ethanol is acknowledged to increase Reid vapor pressure
(RVP) by about 1.0 psi, but RFG regulations, as proposed in EPA's Simple Model for
RFG in 1995 and 1996, would require reduced RVP gasolines in order to comply with
the VOC performance standards of the RFG program, without considering the oxygen
content of the gasoline. However, the oxygen content of the common 10 percent blend of
ethanol exceeds the minimum RFG oxygen requirement by 75 percent. Hence, the object
of this study is to evaluate the ozone impact from a 10 percent ethanol/RFG blend even
though the volatility requirement is not met.
As a test case the Chicago region in 1995 is modeled using the latest urban airshed model
(UAM-V) which minimizes the impact of pollutants transported from other areas through
the use of nested grids. To provide the meteorological conditions of an ozone episode,
the event of 21-22 July 1987 was chosen as it is the best currently available from the
ongoing Lake Michigan Ozone Study (LMOS). Emissions for the test case were
constructed SO as to compare the 10 percent ethanol blend with an 11 percent MTBE
blend which meets the proposed RFG requirements with regard to volatility and oxygen.
It was assumed that either oxygenate would be splash-blended from the same pre-RFG
clear gasoline. This assumption was made to minimize possible uncertainties generated
by variations in refinery blending techniques.
Emission inventories used to compare the two blends were constructed as follows:
1.
With regard to mass emissions
To the extent possible mass emissions were obtained from the latest version
of EPA's MOBILE model (MOBILE 4.1).
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Since the effects of oxygen on the mass emission rates of exhaust VOC and NOₓ
are not included in MOBILE 4.1, EPA recommended values were utilized for
VOCs in this case. Similarly, EPA recommendations were followed to obtain the
mass emissions of NO, as effected by oxygen (see Volume 1, Appendix B).
2.
With regard to species profiles
For the ethanol blend scenario, the AQIRP species profile data was used for all
vehicles equipped with 3-way catalyst technology, and for all vehicles whose
evaporative emissions were equal to or below the level measured and used in the
AQIRP study. (The AQIRP data base has exhaust and evaporative species profiles
for cars with 3-way catalyst technology using an ethanol blend, fuel W). This fuel
is close to RFG specifications for aromatics and has an RVP approximately 1 psi
higher than might be required for Chicago in 1995.)
Evaporative emissions above the AQIRP levels for either carbureted or fuel-
injected cars were speciated with the running loss profile from the AQIRP data
base, as were the running loss emissions.
Exhaust emissions from non-catalyst cars and those using the open-loop
technologies were speciated utilizing the EPA default profile as modified to
account for the presence of ethanol. This modification followed an EPA
recommendation as presented in Volume 1, Appendix C.
All species profiles for the MTBE scenario were constructed utilizing the same
profiles as those for the ethanol-blend, modified as per the EPA memorandum
contained in Volume 1, Appendix C.
Due to the large amount of diverse data that results from a single UAM simulation, it has
become common practice to present this post-processed material in selected tables and
figures. This selection is only based on the need to provide the most succinct summary
of results that will permit an objective interpretation to be made within the goals and
framework of a specific study. Additional processing of the resulting data was required
prior to presenting the results of this study due to the fact that we were using the recently
developed UAM-V. For example, the outer grid cells of 27 Km size are not included in
the presentation even though the emissions and photochemistry in this region was
simulated. Likewise information only from the surface layer is presented here even
though the six layers above the surface were simulated for the full two days. The
decision, with regard to the presentation of the latter results, was based on the assessment
that the material not presented did not affect the conclusions of the current study.
Whether utilized or not, the full simulation results are available to those who would wish
to examine them.
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Figures 1 and 2 show isolines of the maximum ozone generated in each of the surface
grid cells for the base MTBE scenario on the first and second (21 and 22 July 1995)
days, respectively. The predicted maximum and minimum ozone concentrations occur in
approximately the same locations on each day. The maxima are to the east of the city of
Chicago over Lake Michigan and the minima are located southwest of the city. The
minima are apparently due to a very large point source of NOₓ emissions in this region.
Although the predicted ozone peak on the second day is above the federal ozone standard
of 120 ppb, the region exposed to concentrations above this level is small and it appears
to be all offshore.
Due to the almost identical predicted results for the ethanol blend and MTBE blend
scenarios, it was decided not to simply present, what would appear to be, duplicate
figures for the two simulations. Rather, it was felt that the results of the ethanol scenario
are more clearly presented as the differential change in the maximum ozone that occurs
when one substitutes 10 percent ethanol for 11 percent MTBE (i.e., ethanol minus
MTBE). This differential is presented in Figures 3 and 4. Isolines on these figures
represent areas where the two scenarios give different results. The absence of isolines
are areas where, to the resolution of the display of modeling results (0.1 ppb), the
scenarios provide identical results. Considering the broader area of zero difference
presented in Figure 3, it is appears clear that the first day distribution of maximum ozone
concentrations is quite similar for both the ethanol and MTBE scenarios, with the primary
differences occurring away from the area of highest absolute ozone concentration (see
Figure 1). The second day impact of the ethanol blend, shown differentially in Figure 4,
is very similar to the first day (as is that due to the MTBE blend), particularly in the
Chicago region. The northwest region of the 9 km modeling domain shows a large area
of positive maximum ozone differential (i.e. the impact on the maximum ozone
concentration, when using the ethanol blend scenario, is 0.1 to 0.3 ppb higher than that
due to the MTBE blend). However, as seen when examining Figure 2 this region is,
once again, away from the areas of highest ozone concentrations; in fact, the simulated
ozone peaks in the region of the highest differential impacts, due to the ethanol blend, are
about one half of the peak maximum ozone concentration occurring in the entire modeling
domain (approximately 60 ppb as compared to 120 ppb).
An extra simulation of the ethanol scenario was performed that was not specified in the
protocol (see Volume 1). In this simulation we used the hourly distribution of running
loss emissions due only to vehicle miles traveled (VMT) rather than the temperature-
corrected hourly distribution prescribed in the protocol. Figures 5 and 6 present (for,
respectively, the first and second simulation day) the differential impact on the maximum
ozone concentrations when comparing these two ethanol scenarios. The hourly
distributions for running loses for VMT, and those for VMT with the prescribed
temperature correction are shown in Figure 7. The main effect of the temperature
correction is to move the bulk of the running loss emissions to the afternoon commute
hours (when temperatures are higher); the daily total of the emissions, in both cases, is
identical. During the morning commute the gasoline tanks are cold, but for the afternoon
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Moximum Value = 116.22
Time : 600 - 0 LST
Minimum Value - 32.46
NORTH
303 323 343 363 383 403 423 443 463 483 503 523 543 563 583 603 623 643 663 683
4925
4905
V
80
4885
40
4865
60
4845
80
80
4825
4805
60
4785
30
60
09
80
4765
60
4745
WEST
4725
EAST
80
4705
20
4685
60
801
100
-09
4565
4645
60
4625
80
4605
10
60
60
4585
69
4565
4545
4525
0
o
10
4505
20
30
40
SOUTH
FIGURE 1. Maximum hourly ozone (ppb) predicted by the UAM-V for the MTBE
scenario, 9 km grid on July 21, 1987 in the Lake Michigan region.
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Time : 0 - 2000 LST
Maximum Value - 131.66
NORTH
Minimum Value = 40.41
303 323 343 363 383 403 423 443 463 483 503 523 543 563 583 603 623 643 663 683
4925
4905
4885
40
0
6a
4865
60
4845
100
80
60
4825
60.
60
BO
4805
60
30
4785
100
60-
4765
60
4745
WEST
4725
60
EAST
4705
20
100
80
4685
BOX
4665
60
TOO
4645
60
09
+
4625
80
10
4605
60,
60
6a
4585
$
4565
4545
4525
0
o
10
20
4505
30
40
SOUTH
FIGURE
2. Maximum hourly ozone (ppb) predicted by the UAM-V for the MTBE
scenario, 9 km grid on July 22, 1987 in the Lake Michigan region.
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Time : 600 - 0 LST
Maximum Value TW 0.25
Minimum Value - -0.25
303 323 343 363 383 403 423 443 463 483 NORTH 503 523 543 563 583 603 623 643 663 683
4925
4905
4885
40
4865
4845
4825
4805
30
4785
4765
4745
WEST
0.100
4725
EAST
4705
20
4685
a
0.100
4665
4645
4625
10
4605
4585
4565
4545
4525
o
0
10
20
30
4505
40
SOUTH
FIGURE 3. Difference in maximum hourly ozone (ppb) (Ethanol minus MTBE
scenarios), 9 km grid on July 21, 1987 in the Lake Michigan region.
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Maximum Value = 0.31
Time : 0 - 2000 LST
Minimum Volue = -0.24
NORTH
303 323 343 363 383 403 423 443 463 483 503 523 543 563 583 603 623 643 663 683
4925
4905
4885
40
4865
4845
0.100
4825
4805
30
0.100
4785
0.100
4765
4745
WEST
4725
EAST
4705
20
4685
0.100
4665
4645
#
4625
0.100
4605
10
4585
4565
4545
4525
0
0
10
20
4505
30
40
SOUTH
FIGURE 4. Difference in maximum hourly ozone (ppb) (Ethanol minus MTBE
scenarios), 9 km grid on July 22, 1987 in the Lake Michigan Region.
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Time : 600 - 0 LST
Maximum Value = 0.02
Minimum Value - -0.01
NORTH
303 323 343 363 383 403 423 443 463 483 503 523 543 563 583 603 623 643 663 683
4925
4905
4885
40
4865
+
4845
4825
4805
30
4785
4765
4745
WEST
4725
EAST
0.010
4705
20
4685
0.010
4665
0
4645
4625
10
4605
4585
4565
4545
4525
o
0
10
20
30
4505
40
SOUTH
FIGURE 5. Maximum hourly ozone differences (pphm) between the UAM-V
Ethanol and Ethanol III (VMT RL profile minus temperature-corrected RL
profile) scenarios, 9 km grid on July 21, 1987 in the Lake Michigan region.
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Time : 100 - 2000 LST
Moximum Value = 0.05
Minimum Value = -0.02
NORTH
303 323 343 363 383 403 423 443 463 483 503 523 543 563 583 603 623 643 663 683
4925
4905
4885
40
4865
+
4845
4825
4805
30
4785
4765
4745
WEST
4725
EAST
4705
20
4685
-0.010)
4665
4645
4625
10
4605
0.010
4585
0.020
0
030
4565
4545
4525
0
o
10
20
30
4505
40
SOUTH
FIGURE 6. Maximum hourly ozone differences (pphm) between the UAM-V
Ethanol and Ethanol III (VMT RL profile minus temperature-corrected RL
profile) scenarios, 9 km grid on July 22, 1987 in the Lake Michigan region.
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12024566218 P.19
16
14
12
10
Percent
8
6
*
4
*
+
2
*
*
*
0
*
1. 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 1415 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Hour of Day
VMT
Wt'd Tmprtr/VMT
Temperature
FIGURE 7. Alternative profiles for running loss emissions.
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commute many vehicles have been sitting in the hot sun and the tanks become warm
enough to enhance the running loss emissions. Figure 5 shows that the shift in running
loss emissions alone can produce as large a differential impact on ozone concentrations as
that produced, differentially, when comparing the MTBE and ethanol scenarios. That is,
without the shift in emissions towards the afternoon commute hours, it would appear that
the differential impact between ethanol and MTBE could be twice as high for this day for
some areas in the lower Lake Michigan region. It should be noted, however, that the
small region of the highest ozone peaks is barely affected by the shift in hourly
distribution. Further, were one to differentially compare the MTBE scenario and the
ethanol scenario, for this day, under identical running loss assumptions, essentially all of
the additional effect of not taking the temperature correction into account would be
eliminated. The point of interest is that the shift in the hourly distribution of one part of
the emissions inventory can have a small impact on maximum ozone concentrations and
their distribution, but the differential impact of using a 10 percent ethanol blend, as
compared to an 11 percent MTBE blend, is also small and, in some ares, indeed of about
the same magnitude.
The shifting of the running loss emissions toward the afternoon hours has a different
effect on the second day of the simulation. Figure 6 shows that the northwest part of the
region (downwind of Chicago) experiences some degree of ozone enhancement, but the
southeast part of the grid contained in this figure, shows significant ozone decreases due
to the shift in running loss emissions alone. This area of decrease, while it appears as
the southeast portion of the fine resolution modeling grid presented in Figure 6, is
actually immediately downwind (this second day) of metropolitan Indianapolis, whose
emissions are included in the courser grid, and are, therefore, part of the simulation.
The evident shift in the wind pattern then, has resulted in a decreased ozone region (when
considering temperature corrections for running loses) in an area that is now downwind
of a major source of urban emissions. This reaction is similar to the reaction of the area
immediately downwind of Chicago in the first day simulation (see Figure 5). It appears
from this somewhat obtuse analysis, that the impact of shifting the running loss emissions
to later in the day, to a degree, reduces the ozone on the day the specific emissions
occurred, and appear to possibly increase the ozone formation on the second day in the
area to which these emissions, or their residuals, were transported. The importance of
this shift is discussed further in Section 3 below.
Another interesting pollutant to consider, from the standpoint of the impact of oxygenates
in fuel, is carbon monoxide (CO). In the winter time CO, as a criteria pollutant, is of
concern itself, and oxygenates are added to fuel to help reduce CO emissions from motor
vehicles. During the warmer ozone season (summer time) CO can act as a precursor to
ozone formation. If ethanol, whose oxygen content is higher than that of MTBE, reduces
CO concentrations significantly in the regions impacted by increased VOC's that result
from the higher volatility of ethanol blends, then the extra CO reduction can help
compensate in part, for the ozone increases that might otherwise be expected. Figures 8
and 9 show the differential CO maximum concentration (cell by cell) distribution when
92068.10
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Time : 600 - 0 LST
Maximum Value = 0.49
Minimum Value = -68.84
NORTH
303 323 343 363 383 403 423 443 463 483 503 523 543 563 583 603 623 643 663 683
4925
4905
4885
40
*
4865
5.000
is
4845
4825
10.000
4805
30
4785
~5.000--
4765
5:00P
0
4745
WEST
4725
EAST
4705
20
4685
10.000
4665
4645
10.000
-5.000
4625
220.000
10
5.000.-
4605
-10.000
4585
4565
4545
4525
0
0
10
20
30
4505
40
SOUTH
FIGURE 8. Maximum hourly CO differences (ppb) (Ethanol minus MTBE scenarios),
9 km grid on July 21, 1987 in the Lake Michigan region.
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Maximum Value = 0.52
Time : o - 2000 LST
Minimum Value = - -159,55
NORTH
303 323 343 363 383 403 423 443 463 483 503 523 543 563 583 603 623 643 663 683
4925
4905
4885
40
4865
5.000-
5.000
4845
5.000-
4825
4805
30
4785
-5.00g
4765
10.000,
4745
WEST
4725
10.000
:
EAST
to
4705
20
10.000
4685
5.000
4665
4645
4625
70.000
4605
10
4585
4565
4545
4525
0
0
10
20
4505
30
40
SOUTH
FIGURE 9. Maximum hourly CO differences (ppb) (Ethanol minus MTBE scenarios),
9 km grid on July 22, 1987 in the Lake Michigan region.
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comparing the ethanol blend and MTBE blend scenarios. As can be seen by examining
these figures, the greatest negative change in CO maximum concentrations (i.e. the
greatest ethanol-induced reduction in CO when compared to the MTBE blend scenario)
occurs between the location of the highest ozone peaks (the urban area of Chicago) and
the general area of the greatest differential ozone impact of the ethanol blend as compared
to the MTBE blend scenarios.
The results shown in the Figures 1 through 6 are for ozone only and the times of day
when the ozone maxima occur are not given. Table 1 shows the five highest ozone
values predicted for each day for both the MTBE and ethanol scenarios, along with their
grid locations and the time of day when the maximum occurred. The results for NO2,
PAN, and HNO3 results are included in Table 1 as well. It appears from the times when
the NO₂ peaks occur (nighttime) that these peaks are not the result of photochemical
conversion of the primary emitted species NO to NO₂. In smog chamber experiments a
photochemical NO₂ peak is routinely observed because the VOC and NOₓ precursors are
added at the start of the experiment and not over a period of time as occurs in the urban
atmosphere. Therefore, the nighttime NO₂ increases are apparently due to the emissions
of NO₂ into a shallow stable surface layer without any mixing or photochemistry. NO2 is
assumed to be emitted at the rate of 5 percent of the total NOₓ emissions with the
remaining 95 percent being NO. It should also be noted that any local ozone
concentrations can titrate emitted NO to NO2. It is not clear to what extent either of
these two mechanisms (emitted directly or titrated from local ozone) is at work in the
Chicago region on the days modeled.
92068.10
15
AUG-21-1992
TABLE 1. Results summary.
Day 1
Day 2
Pollutant
Cell
Cell
11:51
(ppb)
X
Y
Time
Ethanol
MTBE
Change
X
Y
Time
Ethanol
MTBE
Change
Ozone
24
15
15
116.31
116.22
0.09 Ave
23
15
13
131.75
131.66
0.09 Ave
FROM
18
15
16
114.49
114.24
0.25
24
15
14
130.79
130.73
0.06
18
14
16
109.48
109.33
0.15
22
15
12
130.03
129.94
0.09
16
18
14
108.71
108.63
0.08
22
14
14
120.91
120.84
0.07
23
15
15
108.5
108.43
0.07
0.128
24
16
12
112.72
112.67
0.05
0.072
NO2
14
15
21
101.28
101.09
0.19
14
17
5
112.05
111.77
0.28
13
15
23
99.13
98.89
0.24
14
16
4
111.67
111.39
0.28
SPRINGFIELD
15
13
22
98.82
98.59
0.23
18
13
6
108.84
108.04
0.8
15
12
22
98.44
98.32
0.12
15
15
5
108.13
107.56
0.57
14
14
23
97.2
97.02
0.18 0.192
13
15
0
97.56
97.3
0.26 0.438
PAN
16
18
14
3.7
3.69
0.01
22
15
11
6.79
6.78
0.01
16
17
14
3.51
3.5
0.01
16
22
16
10
4.85
4.85
0
26
20
12
3.25
3.25
0
23
STAFF OFC
16
11
4.76
4.75
0.01
22
20
13
3.23
3.23
0
23
15
12
4.63
4.63
0
26
21
12
3.22
3.22
0 0.004
22
17
10
4.31
4.31
0 0.004
HNO3
24
15
14
16.38
16.36
0.02
21
26
13
24.22
24.2
0.02
TO
22
15
14
16.02
15.99
0.03
21
25
13
24.2
24.18
0.02
17
15
14
15.91
15.89
0.02
22
15
13
23.9
23.89
0.01
16
15
15
15.9
15.87
0.03
21
24
13
23.84
23.81
0.03
23
15
14
15.76
15.75
0.01
0.022
21
27
13
23.83
23.8
0.03 0.022
6-hr O3
18
15
14
103.49
103.28
0.21
22
15
10
121.12
121.03
0.09
8-hr O₃
16
18
12
98.4
98.27
0.13
22
15
10
118.37
118.27
0.1
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3 DISCUSSION
The results presented in the previous section appear to support the conclusion that a net
increase in VOC emissions from vehicles using 10 percent ethanol blends may not
significantly increase urban ozone compared to 11 percent MTBE blends because the
reduced exhaust VOC and CO emissions from the higher fuel oxygen content in the
ethanol blends can compensate for the increased evaporative VOC emissions, which are
much lower than the exhaust emissions in photochemical reactivity. In this section we
discuss detailed reasons which can support this conclusion and discuss the reasons why
this result appears to be different than the results obtained by AQIRP.
COMPARISON WITH AQIRP RESULTS
Four of five percentage measures of the ethanol impact can be compared directly with the
AQIRP study: (1) the net percentage increase in mobile VOC emissions, (2) the net
reactivity factor weighted percentage increase in mobile VOC emissions, (3) the net
percentage increase in overall VOC emissions and (4) the net percentage increase in
overall ozone simulated by the UAM. A fifth measure is the percentage ozone increase
relative to the estimated total ozone from the mobile fleet considered; this last measure
requires running the grid model with zero emissions from the fleet considered; such a
simulation was not performed in the ICGA study. Table 2 summarizes the four
comparisons.
As seen in Table 2, the 12.5 percent net increase in mobile VOC emissions in the ICGA
study of Chicago is somewhat less than the increases used in the AQIRP study. The
increase is less in the ICGA study because the EPA MOBILE4.1 emissions model
predicts less evaporative and running loss increases for a 1 psi RVP increase than what
was measured in the AQIRP study fleet for splash-blended ethanol and because the EPA
estimate of 14.5 percent reduction in exhaust VOC for ethanol blends is apparently more
than the measured reductions in the AQIRP data.
The overall exhaust reduction used in the ICGA study between the MTBE base and the
ethanol blend is 5.2 percent, as is shown on Table 2 of Volume 1. The overall exhaust
reductions used in the AQIRP simulations were only released on 14 July 1992. The
reductions appear to be lower than used in the ICGA study in spite of the fact that the
AQIRP study used clear gasoline as a base rather than the 11 percent MTBE blend used
92068.10
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TABLE 2. Comparisons of percentage changes from base fuel, due to the net effects of
ethanol blends, in VOC and ozone air quality between the AQIRP and ICGA studies.
Reactivity is estimated using the method of Carter (1991). ICGA base is MTBE fuel,
AQIRP base is clear fuel.
Reactivity-
Mobile
Weighted Mobile
Overall
Overall
Study/City
VOC
VOC
VOC
Ozone
ICGA, Chicago
12.5
4.3
0.6
0.07
AQIRP
Los Angeles
23
14
2.1
1.1
Dallas
17
14
2.1
1.0
New York
17
15
2.8
0.8
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in the ICGA study. This observation is based on AQIRP Technical Bulletin No. 6 (1991)
which notes that 10 percent ethanol blends and 15 percent MTBE blends each reduce
exhaust VOC by about 7 percent compared to clear fuel. If the effect were linear with
MTBE, then an 11 percent MTBE blend would be expected to reduce exhaust VOC by 5
percent SO that the difference between a 10 percent ethanol blend and an 11 percent
MTBE blend would be only about 2 percent based on the AQIRP Technical Bulletin No.
6. However, this same Technical Bulletin shows that for the fuels simulated using the
UAM, the measured reductions (from clear gasoline) were only about 5 percent for one
fuel (fuel T compared to S) and less than 2 percent reduction for the other fuel (fuel U
compared to fuel F). The reductions used by AQIRP in the UAM are not the same as
published in the Technical Bulletin because the averaging process for UAM simulations is
somewhat different (SAI, 1990). According to the information released to the EPA on 14
July 1992 the AQIRP used an exhaust VOC reduction of only 2.5 percent for fuel T in
the Los Angeles UAM simulation and a reduction of 3.9 percent for the Dallas and New
York simulations.
The increased VOC from the evaporative emissions was apparently much higher in the
AQIRP study than the 26.3 percent increase (Table 2 of Volume 1) used in the ICGA
study. AQIRP Technical Bulletin No. 6 shows over a 60 percent increase in diurnal
emissions between fuels S and T and over a 40 percent increase for these fuels in the hot
soak emissions. According to the 14 July 1992 release of information the evaporative
emissions were increased about 60 percent for the fuel T simulations in the AQIRP study.
As noted in SAI (1990) the protocol for the AQIRP emissions inventory calls for
multiplying the MOBILE4.0 emissions by the ratio of the measured test fuel emissions
rate to the measured base fuel emissions rate. However, as noted in Volume 1 of this
report, the measured emissions rates for evaporative emissions from the AQIRP fleet of
1989 vehicles is considerably less than the predictions from MOBILE4.1. For example,
the measured diurnal emissions from fuel-injected cars for the 9.0 RVP fuel used in the
ICGA study (fuel W) are less than a third what might be predicted from MOBILE4.1 for
the standard test in typical 1989 cars. For the hot soak test the measured emissions for
fuel W in AQIRP fuel-injected vehicles is about 40 percent less than the MOBILE4.1
prediction. Thus, the AQIRP fleet appears to have significantly less evaporative
emissions than predicted from the EPA data base for typical 1989 cars; the EPA data
base is the source of the MOBILE4.1 predictions. There is uncertainty that a 60 percent
increase in evaporative emissions measured on the low-emitting AQIRP vehicles can
correctly be applied to increase the evaporative emissions of typical vehicles. The
AQIRP is apparently conducting tests to assess this part of the protocol.
For running loss emissions the ICGA used an increase of 45.3 percent (Table 2 of
Volume 1). From the AQIRP Working Data Set used in this ICGA study the running
loss emissions increase for fuel W over the clear fuel (V) was measured to be more than
2 orders of magnitude. The AQIRP protocol for running loss effects is unclear.
However, the emissions information released on 14 July 1992 indicates that the AQIRP
used running loss increases for fuel T (compared to fuel S) of 195, 72 and 62 percent for
the UAM simulations of Los Angeles, Dallas and New York, respectively.
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For mass emissions effects the AQIRP used less reduction in exhaust and more increases
in evaporative and running loss emissions than used in this ICGA study. Both of these
differences contribute to the net lower VOC mass increase for gasoline vehicles shown
for the ICGA study in Table 2. The next column in Table 2 shows the reactivity-
weighted (using Maximum Incremental Reactivity, MIR, factors) net VOC effects of
ethanol between the AQIRP and this study. The difference is even larger than the
difference in mass effects just discussed. Table 2 shows that the reactivity-weighted
VOC increase is only 4.3 percent for this ICGA study, but the AQIRP increases are all
nearly 15 percent. Moreover, the percentage increases in mass VOC and reactivity-
weighted VOC are at least comparable in the AQIRP (percentage increase in reactivity-
weighted VOC is reduced 12 to 40 percent from the percent increase in VOC mass), but
for the present case the net percentage drops by nearly a factor of 3. In order for such a
drop in net effect to occur the reduction in exhaust needs to compensate for increased
evaporative emissions by a combined mass and reactivity effect. That is, the exhaust
reduction must be large in mass and significantly more reactive than the evaporative
emissions reactivity and the evaporative mass increase must be low. In the previous
discussion, the mass effects in the AQIRP were noted to be significantly different than
those in the ICGA study: exhaust reductions are less in the AQIRP study and evaporative
increases are more than the ICGA.
Speciation information was released by AQIRP on 14 July 1992. However, the electronic
format of this information was not distributed by the EPA in time for this review.
Nevertheless, some analysis of reactivity is possible. First of all, the fuels used in the
AQIRP study are designated as "research" reformulated gasolines. The aromatic and
olefin content of the AQIRP fuels simulated with the UAM are significantly less than the
fuel W used in the ICGA study. In spite of this the m-xylene content of the evaporative
emissions profile released on 14 July for fuel S of the AQIRP study is about twice the m-
xylene fraction of the evaporative profile used in the ICGA study (shown in Appendix A
of Volume 1 of this report). For the exhaust profiles the m-xylene fractions appear
comparable between the two studies. This is one indication, along with the second
column of Table 2, that the reactivity spread between the exhaust and evaporative
emissions is much greater in the ICGA study than in the AQIRP study. Part of this
apparent difference stems from the two protocols.
In the ICGA study, increases in evaporative emissions are assumed to come primarily
from the vapor component represented by the running loss species profile which is quite
low in reactivity. In the AQIRP study, the evaporative species profile is not varied as
emissions increase. As noted above, the AQIRP fleet emits significantly less evaporative
emissions than the typical 1989 vehicles in the EPA data base. Based on discussions with
the EPA the low emissions in the AQIRP fleet was characterized (at least for heuristic
purposes) as seepage in Volume 1 of this report. Conceptually as the mass of
evaporative emissions are scaled up to the typical rates in the EPA data base the protocol
for the ICGA reduces the reactivity by altering the speciation profile by adding the
running loss profile which is characterized (also heuristically) as the vapor component.
92068.10
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In the AQIRP study, to our knowledge, measured speciation profiles are not altered in
any way. That is, if the measured diurnal mass emissions rate in the AQIRP was one
third the value for typical cars in the EPA data base (as noted above based on
MOBILE4.0 predictions), then the mass emissions are increased by a factor of 3 for
UAM modeling but the speciation profile remains the same as measured in the AQIRP
fleet.
The last two columns in Table 2 show the overall UAM percentage changes in VOC
emissions and ozone. Although the overall VOC emissions changes very little in the
ICGA study (0.6% between the base and the ethanol scenario), the change in overall
ozone of 0.07 percent is even lower in comparison to the AQIRP results. As noted in the
previous section the absolute ozone change is only 0.09 ppb in peak ozone. Note that
tests have been performed on the UAM to determine what constitutes a real effect and
what level of ozone change falls within computer numerical accuracy. On typical
computer systems, the tests indicate that an ozone change above 0.05 ppb is a real effect;
the lower bound on this issue is not known.
In the AQIRP study the mobile VOC inventory addressed for fuel S was 7.5, 11.6 and 15
percent of total VOC in Los Angeles, Dallas and New York, respectively. As shown in
Table 2 of Volume 1, the ICGA mobile VOC inventory is 5.2 percent of total VOC.
Hence, the ICGA is comparable but lower than the other studies. However, the percent
ozone increase due to ethanol is much lower than the AQIRP percentages as shown in
Table 2 of this Volume. If the overall percent ozone changes are normalized to the
percent VOC which is addressed as mobile in the studies, the ICGA value is 0.013 for
percent ozone increase per percent mobile VOC; the corresponding values from the
AQIRP study are 0.15, 0.086 and 0.053 for Los Angeles, Dallas and New York,
respectively. Therefore, the impact in the ICGA is always less than the AQIRP by at
least a factor of 4 (comparing New York) and up to over a factor of 10 (comparing Los
Angeles). The reactivity-weighted VOC effects shown in Table 2 also suggest nearly a
factor of 4 lower impact from the ICGA study than from the AQIRP study. Hence, the
UAM results, when normalized to the amounts of mobile related VOC emissions are
consistent with the reactivity-weighted estimate that the ICGA study gives at least a factor
of 4 less ozone increase from ethanol blends than is estimated from the AQIRP study.
In summary, the key reasons for the lower ICGA impact appear to stem from all 3 of the
features discussed which can contribute to a compensation of increased volatility-related
emissions by the extra oxygen in ethanol: (1) a large mass reduction of exhaust
emissions, (2) a large difference in reactivity between exhaust and evaporative emissions
and (3) a minimal increase in evaporative emissions. On each of these 3 features the
AQIRP study shows less potential for a compensation effect than does the ICGA study.
92068.10
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4
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
CONCLUSIONS
A 10 percent ethanol blend has 75 percent more fuel oxygen than an 11 percent MTBE
blend. This extra oxygen can compensate for most of the increased VOC emissions due
to the higher volatility of the ethanol blend, if there is a large enough difference in
photochemical reactivity between the exhaust emissions that fuel oxygen reduces and the
evaporative emissions that ethanol increases. Compensation results from the net sum of 3
effects: (1) the VOC emissions which increase (evaporative and running losses) can be
low in photochemical reactivity (lower even than the original evaporative emissions
because the increase is from the light, mainly paraffinic, vapor and ethanol itself, not
from the high boiling fraction which contains the most reactive aromatics); (2) the oxygen
in the fuel reduces the exhaust VOC emissions which are more reactive than the increased
evaporative emissions (especially in older cars); and (3) carbon monoxide is reduced by
the fuel oxygen and CO is partially reactive towards ozone formation. Additionally,
much of the increased evaporative emissions (running losses in particular) are released
later in the day at different times than much of the main exhaust emissions. Apparently,
the morning emissions of highly reactive exhaust emissions from cold start operation of
vehicles is also a more critical time of day for VOC emissions contribution to ozone
formation than the mid to late afternoon when increased evaporative emissions are mostly
released.
The present study demonstrates the compensation effect using the UAM and a set of
assumptions that are designed to compare the two fuel oxygenates using existing data and
minimize uncertainties involving refinery blending variations. Therefore, this study
assumes that both the MTBE blend and the ethanol blend were created by splash-blending
with the same base clear gasoline. Unfortunately some key uncertainties still remain due
to a lack of data on emissions from 11 percent MTBE blends made from the same clear
base as a 10 percent ethanol blend, but the effect of these uncertainties on the basic
conclusion would primarily come from the relative reactivities of the exhaust and
evaporative emissions in all the possible combinations (between the two exhaust
emissions, between the two evaporative emissions and between the exhaust and
evaporative emissions in either blend).
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RECOMMENDATIONS
This study used the best episodic framework currently available to examine the ethanol
blend impact on urban ozone in the Chicago area. A much better modeling data base
should soon be available from the LMOS program. Along with better meteorological
inputs, a new LMOS base episode will also have a much improved base emissions
inventory. New ethanol impact studies with improved emissions and meteorology can
also be coupled with constructive inputs stemming from reviews of this study.
In the present study comparative reactivities between the two oxygenate blends was
assumed to be nearly identical even though some data suggests that differences may be
important. Reactivity (Carter) factors from the AQIRP study suggest that MTBE
increases exhaust reactivity relative to clear gasoline and ethanol decreases exhaust
reactivity. The present study constructed an exhaust reactivity profile for the MTBE
blend (due to the absence of appropriate data) that was less reactive than the exhaust
profile of the ethanol blend. Therefore, new data on comparative exhaust reactivity
between MTBE and ethanol blends are expected to strengthen the compensation
conclusion found in this study. Data on both the evaporative mass effects and speciation
of oxygenates at low RVP is now being obtained by the EPA. The high temperatures of
ozone episodes are expected to increase the mass of ethanol emissions more than MTBE
emissions, but the importance of this is not known as overall RVP is reduced. Southern
states have higher temperatures but lower RVP requirements. Thus, the implications of
new data on evaporative emissions are uncertain concerning the conclusions of the present
study of the Chicago area and any conclusions about the applications of the present
conclusions to other areas, especially the Southern areas with high urban ozone problems.
Other caveats to this study are uncertainties due to the importance of the older cars on the
road in 1995 relative to future years and uncertainties due to the importance of nonroad
emissions and refueling emissions. More studies will be needed to assess effects on the
present compensation conclusion due to calendar year fleet turn over and the relative
importance of refueling emissions increases to nonroad exhaust emissions decreases from
the use of ethanol blends.
In the discussions above, many of the caveats pertain to the lack of complete data for
characterizing the emissions from the use of a MTBE or ethanol blend. Some obvious
needs for better data are the exhaust mass and reactivity effects comparing 11 percent
MTBE and 10 percent ethanol from the same clear RFG-like base gasolines. However,
the key to a small ozone impact seen in this study is the low reactivity of the increased
VOC emissions resulting from the use of splash-blending ethanol. In this study a
methodology was developed to vary the speciation profile with the emissions rate of
evaporative emissions. This methodology considered low emissions rates as "seepage"
and the higher rates of emissions due primarily as "vapor" emissions. These terms are
heuristic in nature and not necessarily accurate descriptions of the processes involved.
The two profiles used to represent these two types of evaporative emissions are
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significantly different in speciation profile and the methodology creates profiles which
vary in reactivity such that high emissions rates are dominated by the light paraffins
commonly associated with adjusting fuel volatility at refineries. The methodology
developed and used for this study follows trends expected from existing data and from
our discussions with EPA staff and others. There is no data base which specifically
validates this methodology. In the AQIRP, no such methodology was used; the
speciation profile for evaporative emissions was held fixed even though the measured
emissions rate in the AQIRP fleet was as much as a factor of 3 less than expected from
the EPA emissions model MOBILE4.0. Therefore, evaporative emissions profiles need
to be studied as a function of emissions rate.
Since, evaporative emissions are very sensitive to several variables such a study should
check the many parameters involved and develop methodologies to change the speciation
profiles correctly. The parameters involve the fuels, the vehicles, the temperature and
the previous history of the vehicle. The fuel parameters can depend on the presence of
an oxygenate and the clear gasoline RVP-adjustments made at the refinery by adding (or
not adding) light paraffin compounds. Vehicle parameters involve the basic test results
obtained with standard tests and the potential for some vehicles to respond to the presence
of oxygenates (Whitten, 1992). Temperature effects are well documented for the effect
on mass emissions rates, but effects on the speciation profile are not well documented;
both seepage and vapor can increase with temperature, but not necessarily by the same
amount. Vehicles not driven very far will not have the canister purged as well as
vehicles driven a long distance, so that the vehicles driven the shorter distances will have
more vapor-like evaporative emissions due to canister overloading. Also vehicles parked
in the hot sun can have more fully loaded canisters than vehicles at dawn.
Smog chamber experiments might be helpful to demonstrate that a net increase in VOC
can result in little of no increase in ozone. A side-by-side experiment could be
performed with a mixture of exhaust and evaporative VOC on one side and reduced
exhaust but increased evaporative emissions on the other side. Because exhaust emissions
are typically more reactive than evaporative emissions, the "neutral" ozone point will
occur with more evaporative increases than exhaust decreases. For a smog chamber
demonstration fairly large changes will be necessary to insure that the results are within
experimental variance. For example, a 50 percent exhaust (or surrogate exhaust) VOC
reduction might be coupled with a 100 percent increase in evaporative VOC. If the
expected reactivity difference is near a factor of 2, then little change in ozone would be
expected if the base experiment side had equal exhaust and evaporative concentrations.
Blends between 10-20 percent ethanol could be studied. The present results suggest that
11 or 12 percent ethanol might provide complete compensation for volatility increases
because such blends presumably would have no more volatility increase but the VOC and
CO reductions should be higher than 10 percent blends. However, additional NOₓ
increases may be a problem.
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References
AQIRP. 1991. "Emissions Results of Oxygenated Gasolines and Changes in RVP." Auto/Oil
Air Quality Improvement Research Program, Technical Bulletin No. 6.
Carter, W.P. L. 1991. Personal communication (November), update to "Development of
Ozone Reactivity Scales for Volatile Organic Compounds" (Statewide Air
Pollution Research Center, University of California Riverside, 1990).
SAI. 1990. "Protocol for Modeling the Air Quality Impact of Fuel Composition Changes in
Light-Duty Vehicles." Systems Applications International, San Rafael, California.
(SYSAPP-90/056).
Whitten, G. z. 1992. "New Reactivity Research Data." National Conference on Octane
Quality and Reformulated Gasolines, March 24 - 26, New Orleans.
92068.10
25
Withdrawal/Redaction Sheet
(George Bush Library)
Document No.
Subject/Title of Document
Date
Restriction
Class.
and Type
01. Note
Handwritten note, re: the Environmental Protection Agency
n.d.
P.S
and Ethanol. (1 pp.)
Collection:
Record Group:
Bush Presidential Records
Office:
Speechwriting, White House Office of
Series:
Speech File, Backup
Open on Expiration of PRA
Subseries:
(Document Follows)
WHORM Cat.:
By SN (NLGB) on 4/5/2005
File Location:
Illinois State Fair 8/23/92
Date Closed:
12/3/2004
OA/ID Number:
07578
FOIA/SYS Case #:
Re-review Case #:
2004-2265-S
P-2/P-5 Review Case #:
MR Case #:
Appeal Case #:
MR Disposition:
Appeal Disposition:
Disposition Date:
Disposition Date:
RESTRICTION CODES
Presidential Records Act - [44 U.S.C. 2204(a)]
Freedom of Information Act - [5 U.S.C. 552(b)]
P-1 National Security Classified Information [(a)(1) of the PRA]
(b)(1) National security classified information [(b)(1) of the FOIA]
P-2 Relating to the appointment to Federal office [(a)(2) of the PRA]
(b)(2) Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of an
P-3 Release would violate a Federal statute [(a)(3) of the PRA]
agency [(b)(2) of the FOIA]
P-4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or
(b)(3) Release would violate a Federal statute [(b)(3) of the FOIA]
financial information [(a)(4) of the PRA]
(b)(4) Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial
P-5 Release would disclose confidential advise between the President
information [(b)(4) of the FOIA]
and his advisors, or between such advisors [a)(5) of the PRA]
(b)(6) Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of
P-6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of
personal privacy [(b)(6) of the FOIA]
personal privacy [(a)(6) of the PRA]
(b)(7) Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement
purposes [(b)(7) of the FOIA]
C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed of
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financial institutions [(b)(8) of the FOIA]
(b)(9) Release would disclose geological or geophysical information
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
CONTACT:
Geve Reinelle B/Q ED
w) 217 527-1992
Ethand rules u/EPA, would not allow Ethanol Z
The use of Ethenol has been a main
Bused
concern to Gov. Edgan f other midwest govers.
EPA has bamed the ciol of Ethanol ding
Certain times 8 The year
if the rules are changed, this would
be a very popular place R annome it.
if decision / exception is not being made
we should sky ang from agric discuss
Dane Bender
Gov calls it
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- "Warshington" ,)
warsh you clothes
SF89-039
AD-1
"I have created my Butter Cow at several fairs and conferences
over the years, but I have four steady places," Lyons said.
Besides the Illinois State Fair, she exhibits her talents at the
Iowa and Kansas State Fairs, and the National Cattle Congress
Conference in Waterloo, Iowa, every year.
Lyons' talents have led to appearances on several television
shows including "To Tell The Truth" and "Late Night with David
Letterman." She has also created sculptures out of cheese blocks,
and various others out of butter including practically everything
but a dog which she hopes to do some day.
"But the Butter Cow and Calf have always been my favorite; I
am partial to my Jersey," Lyons said. Although she creates her
Butter Cow and Calf each year at the Fair, it's always a little
different. Fairgoers will never see the same sculpture twice,
according to Lyons.
While visiting the Fair, don't miss Norma Lyons' 20th
anniversary Butter COW, located in the Dairy Building. The 137th
Illinois State Fair runs Aug. 10-20.
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IL. STATE FAIR
Illinois State Fair History
Its grass-roots beginnings paved the way for the Illinois State Fair's commitment
to excellence and showcasing of the state's agricultural industry, education and the
arts. Attracting a diversified crowd with a family-orientated atmosphere, the Fair
provides an informative and fun-filled experience for everyone.
As it enters its 140th year amidst budget constrictions, the Fair forges ahead to
continue its goal of presenting an entertaining gala of activites for all of Illinois to
enjoy.
The legislature reduced funding for the 1992 Illinois State Fair by more than
$1.7 million. The lack of funding forced Fair officials to cut the first two days of the
celebration, followed by reductions in entertainment and events.
The Fair also has been limited in the amount of money spent on repairs and
renovations. However, the years have taken its toll on many structures and some
maintenance and repairs have been required. All projects utilize Capitol
Development Board bond monies. The Fair consults with the Illinois Historic
Preservation Agency (IHPA) on keeping the Fair buildings as clc e to their original
design as possible. Another priority is the implementation of making the Fair
structures more handi-accessible. The Americans with Disabilities Act guides the Fair
on the installation of various handicapped facilities throughout the Fairgrounds.
Not only will the budget cuts affect the Fair, but the 250 events that are
scheduled throughout the year. However, the first visible impact will be seen at the
Illinois State Fair. Bud Hall, State Fair manager said the goals remain the same to
"putting on a well-balanced, bright, clean Fair that offers activities for every age
group and continues to showcase the state's leading industry agriculture."
The Illinois State Fair opened on October 11, 1853, on Springfield's westside,
where DuBois School and Sacred Heart Academy now stand. Back then 765
exhibits were displayed compared to today's 550 exhibits, which includes
concessions and exhibits. Admission to the Fair was a quarter, and even back then
the Fair boasted outstanding exhibits on livestock. produce, tools, flowers, art
needlework and products of home recipes.
The 1853 Fair promoted improved methods of agriculture and livestock raising and displays on labor, industry, education, arts and
sciences. The first Fair turned a profit of $853 even after premiums and awards were deducted from the gross receipts of $4,751.
Up to 20,000 people-came to the Fair on its third day, and it was reported "not one inebriated man was seen!"
In 1854 the Fair again was held in Springfield, but this time the attraction was Sen. Stephen A. Douglas' speech, and Abraham Lincoln's
rebuttal the next day.
The next 38 years, after the 1854 Fair in Springfield, the Fair was held in 12 cities throughtout the state: Alton, Centralia, Chicago,
Decatur, DuQuoin,. Freeport, Jacksonville, Oiney, Ottawa, Peoria, Quincy and again in Springfield.
When the Fair was held in Centralia in 1858, chaos ensued when two farmer's children accidently ascended into the sky when the hot-air
balloon tied to their father's fence broke off. Fortunately, the balloon landed 18 miles away and the children were returned unharmed to
their tearful parents.
The Civil War and the economic depression hampered the tenth anniversary of the Fair when the proposed site in Peoria had been taken
over as a recruitment camp for the Union soldiers. Some premiums were awarded but without a general Fair site.
Springfield finally became the home of the Fair on September 24, 1894, for a six-day run. Admission was .50 for adults, .75 for one
person on horseback and $1.25 for a carriage-load of four. Premiums topped more than $30,000 that year, and many of the buildings on
the Fairgrounds were renovated. The biggest undertaking was the construction of The Exposition Building which had its comerstone laid on
the Fourth of July. Today, the Exposition is in its final phase after several years of renovation. The title on the mezzanine was replaced
because of asbestos contamination. Some work included roof repair and replacement, improved lighting, cleaning and painting and the
interior color scheme has changed to match the original color of blue.
For the amount of $69,500, a spectacular Dome Building was purchased from the Chicago World's Fair and was reconstructed for the
1895 Fair. It was reported that the glass and metal dome was the second largest unsupported dome in the world. The Dome building,
located east of the Exposition Building, had horticultural exhibits and office space for the National Guard. Tragically, the building burnt down
in August of 1917, just before the Fair opened that year.
Through its long history, the Illinois State Fair has earned the reputation as the best agricultural show in the country. Fairgoers can learn
the basics of farm management, livestock, farm machinery and produce. Premiums serve as an incentive to have exhibits in other fields such
as arts, crafts and hobbies, education and science, culinary skills, music and competition in various games and races.
Currently, the Fairgrounds covers 366 acres, including the 210 added in 1924. The Fair has been held in August since 1926 with earlier
fairs held in October and September. The Fair was not open from 1942 to 1945 because the U.S. Army Air Corps used the grounds as a
supply depot during World War II. The Illinois State Agricultural Society managed the Fair until 1872 when the State Department of
Agriculture was organized.
Its heritage has reflected the nation's history in many ways, and therefore, it would seem unfair to not include everything. It would be
impossible to detail all the department's histories without becoming a novel. Relax, and have yourself a great time at the Illinois State Fair.
There is something for everyone at the Illinois State Fair isn't a cliche, but a reality.
Illinois State Fair
9
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IL. STATE FAIR
Pork Avenue Cafe
A select choice of pork products give
at 8 p.m. The family fun will have food
The pork dinners are complemented with
hungry fairgoers a chance to "pig out" at
samples, prize giveaways and refreshments
dressings such as a baked potato, dinner
the Pork Avenue Cafe. The cafe is located
for those who participate in the
roll and of course, applesauce. One feature
entertainment. The attraction may continue
is the Little Farmer's meal which includes a
west of Farm Expo, across from Food-A-
Rama and will be open from 10 a.m. to
throughout the Fair, depending on
pork burger, chips and milk or orange juice.
8 p.m.
participation.
Located in the Commodity Pavilion, the
New this year Is the alternative to other
Pork lovers have made the cafe one of
Pork Patio is another way to feast on pork.
Fair entertainment, "Hog Rock Cafe,"
the top sellers in the past few years because
The specialty is pork sandwiches and
of the delectable pork sandwiches, pork
boneless BBQ rib sandwiches served daily
where homespun talent can amese the
crowd on a karaoke machine on August 15
hurger, butterfly chop and America's cut.
at the Fair.
Professional Art Exhibit
It's all in the eye of the beholder as the abstract are entered with the
fairgoers indulge in the creations of Illinois perspectives of the fairgoers considered.
artists at the Professional Art Exhibit in the
There is no admission fee.
Firehouse Gallery, located at the comer of
The Firehouse Gallery showcases 85
Main Street and Central Avenue.
works from professional artist. Success is
The exhibit, which is in its 46th year,
sweet in all categories with cash awards of
commemorates Springfield photographer
$400 for first place, $250 for second place
Herbert Georg.
and $125 for third place. The most
All artistic tastes can be satisfied with
prestigious award of the exhibit is the
displays of oil and watercole paintings,
Governor's Award, for which the artist
drawing and graphics, sculpture, crafts and
receives $1,500 and the artwork is perma-
photography.
nently displayed as the Executive Mansion.
Artists can submit up to two pieces of
work of stwork from realism to
76
Ethanol Expo
As the nation's leading ethanol producer,
Illinois has a large stake in how this Industry
grows. Ethanol Expo - a feature of the
Agri-Business Trade Show in the Illinois
Farm Expo features ethanol and its uses
and importance to Illinois.
In its exhibit "Ethanol - A Clean,
Renewable Fuel," Ethanol Expo Invites the
general public to explore informative
displays and products already using
ethanol.
Sponsored in part by Archer Daniels
Midland, Pekin Energy Company, the
Illinois Corn Growers Association, the
Illinois Department of Energy and Natural
Resources and the state of Illinois, Ethanol
Expo highlights the production and
utilization of ethanol fuel through the use of
new technologies.
Located in the Morton Building east of
the Dairy Building and north of the Lincoln
Stage, Ethanol Expo will include a 95%
ethanol-powered bus from Peoria Mass
Transit, an ADM semi-truck powered by
95% ethanol, an ethanol-powered (E-10)
Diesel, Pekin Energy Company, the Vienna
universities and agri-businesses on how
1993 Mach 1 racing boat, an ethanol/
Correctional Facility and other
ethanoi is produced and used.
diesel fuel tractor from the University of
governmental bodies, universities and agri-
Ethanol Expo is open 8 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Illinois and an ethanol variable fuel (E-85)
businesses.
daily with show hours from 10 a.m. to
Chevy Lumina from General Motors.
Visual exhibits include an audio-visual
8 p.m.
Other displays will be provided by Detroit
center and working displays by researchers,
Illinois State Fair
10
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IL. STATE FAIR
VOSE'S
FINE FINE FOOD & DRINK
INTRODUCTION
P
eople come from far and wide to attend opening day of the Illinois State Fair. The year-long
wait for a corndog has come to an end. Some fair-goers will stop at the first corndog con-
cession in sight. Others will be more selective and take the extra few minutes to walk down
Main Street to Grandstand Avenue, and walk directly to the neon Pepsi sign that stands 25 feet in
the air. Below that sign is the home of the best corndog at the state fair, cooked up by Bob Vose.
The corndogs are always hot, always fresh, and never reheated. The plump, juicy weiner, batter-
dipped and deep-fried to a golden brown, with or without mustard and ketchup, is undeniably the
corndog worth waiting for.
These corndogs have won the "Best Corndog" title twice at the Illinois State Fair, in 1976
and again in 1986. The first contest was sponsored by the St. Louis Globe Democrat with Governor
Jim Thompson serving as one of the judges, the other was a 1986 cook-off sponsored by local
radio station, WYMG. The corndogs have been given much publicity by local news broadcasters
including Don Hickman and Susan Finzen of WICS TV-20, Bob Murray of WAND TV, and Don
Murphy of WYMG radio.
Just how did Vose's corndogs become such a state fair tradition? Let's take a look
FIRE FOOD sono DRINK
SIKE
ROOT SEEK
A familiar sight high in the sky.
1
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STATE FAIR
LIFE BEFORE CORNDOGS
B
ob Vose began his work at the American Ice and Fuel Company while attending high
school. After classes, he would walk over to the ice house at 10th and Miller in Springfield
where he would work for 3 hours before returning home to complete his school work.
After graduating from Lanphier High School in 1947, he continued to work for William Vetter, Sr.,
the plant manager. Bob enjoyed the work and even more, he enjoyed his conversations with the
young girl that worked in the manager's office. She was a very attractive girl with big brown eyes
and dark curly hair. Her name was Virginia and she was Bill Vetter's daughter. Bob occasionally
asked her for a date, but to his dismay she would turn him down. Even though she thought he was
very handsome, Virginia was not interested in dating him or any other co-worker.
In 1948 the American Ice Company merged with the
Union Ice Company (now known as the Central Illinois
Ice Company) at 10th and Edwards. That was the year
Bob began delivering ice at the Illinois State Fair.
During this time Virginia left her job at the ice house for
AMERICAN
IC
one at the city street department. She eventually began
dating Bob.
Bob continued working at the ice company until he
joined the Army and was sent to Germany in 1951.
Upon his return to the states in 1953, he continued with
his ice deliveries at the Illinois State Fair. At the same
Bob Vose delivering ice in 1947.
time he took a full-time position at City, Water, Light
and Power as a meter-reader.
William Vetter, Sr. (left) and an unknown assistant deliver ice at the Illinois State Fair.
5
8# [26]
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IL. STATE FAIR
RECIPE FOR SUCCESS
ike everyone else who visits the fair, the Vose children really liked corndogs. After two years
L
of sampling corndogs sold by other vendors, the Vose brothers decided to try their hand at
Iselling them.
This was the beginning of Vose's Famous Corndogs. During the first year the Vose brothers
charged $.25 for their secret recipe dogs. Sno-cones cost $.10 and lemonade shake-ups were, as
Harold Vose would say, "One Quaaataaa."
The hot dogs on a stick were dipped in "Grandma's Secret Recipe" and fried to a golden
brown in a 14 inch flat square pan about 4 inches deep. It was only possible to cook a few dogs at
a time because they were laid flat in the grease and rolled continuously to brown all sides. This
was a slow process, but the best one available at the time. In fact, it was so slow that it was easy
to get behind on orders.
The dogs were an instant hit for the Voses and since they were sometimes unable to keep up
with the constant demand, Harold came up with what he thought was the perfect solution. On the
first Sunday, Veteran's Day, he cooked up approximately 75 corndogs. He figured the crowd would
be leaving the grandstand all at once, like the night before, when the grandstand show let out.
He must not have noticed the Drum and Bugle Corps participants who came marching
down from the Coliseum for the competition in the grandstand. This competition lasted all day
and into the evening: People came and went throughout the day; no big crowds.
Needless to say, there were many corndogs left over and most were given away, but some-
one took a few home, froze them, and gave them to Harold
for Christmas.
Corndogs weren't the only new addition that year. The
Voses opened a second concession that sold only lemonade
shake-ups. They needed another stand and more equipment.
Who better to get this from than the man who introduced lemon-
ade shake-ups to the people at the Illinois State Fair, Walter
Gayle. Mr. Gayle began this fair favorite back in the 1930's when
large beautiful trees lined dirt
roads of the grounds.
They were assigned a
space at the south end of
the grandstand, just a short
distance from their other
concession. They bought a
small stand and heavy
ceramic crocks for water
The 60 year-old crocks show their
age by the many chips
in the ceramic. The significance
of the markings on the crock
on the right are unknown.
13
6# [26]
DD:01
26-2
-80
217 782 9115
STATE FAIR
The Spirit of Excellence
ILLINOIS STATE FAIR
P.O. Box 19427
(217)782-6661
Springfield, IL 62794-9427
FAX: (217)782-9115
F A X
TO:
Jannifer Crossman
FROM: Dave Bender
DATE: 8/16/92
SUBJ: Backgrond info !
PAGE 1 OF
9
PAGES: =
Jannife,
Please fal free I call me today @
(217)-524-388. of tomorrow (Moody) call
217-527-1992. THANKS!
Dave Bander
"Our 140th Year - August 18-23, 1992
15
I# [26]
217 782 9115 08-16-92 10:40
IL. STATE FAIR
SF89-039
Dawn M. Jackson 217/782-1593
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Joe Khayyat 217/524-6197
August 3, 1989
SPRINGFIELD, Ill.--Norma Lyons of Toledo, Iowa, will create her
version of the Illinois State Fair's popular Butter Cow for the
twentieth time at the 1989 Fair. It has been almost 60 years since
a butter COW made its first appearance in the Dairy Building.
Lyons uses almost 500 pounds of unsalted butter, which keeps
the moisture out, to sculpt the COW over a wire and wood frame by
hand. The process, according to Lyons, takes two days to complete.
After the Fair, the butter is scraped off, chilled, and then reused
in Lyons' next sculpture.
"The unsalted butter becomes more and more like plastic after
it's frozen each time," said Lyons. "This year's batch is new and
fresh, so it's been a little softer and easier to work with than
that which I used last year."
According to Lyons, the butter can be used for several years;
her last batch was eight years old. The new butter was donated by
Prairie Farms.
-more-
2# [26]
217 782 9115 08-16-92 10:40
IL. STATE FAIR
AUG-21-1992 13:36 FROM SPRINGFIELD STAFF OFC
TO
P.01
2021456-6218
OFFICE OF
PRESIDENTIAL ADVANCE
COVER PAGE
TO: JENNIFER GROSSMAN
FROM: ES COWLING SPRINGFIELD
TOTAL NUMBER OF PAGES:
15
(including cover page)
DATE:
8/21/92
TIME:
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MESSAGE:
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AUG-21-1992 13:36 FROM SPRINGFIELD STAFF OFC
TO
P.02
MEMORANDUM
TO:
Jennifer Grossman
Research
FROM:
Ed Cowling EC
Presidential Advance, Springfield
RE:
Ethanol
DATE:
August 21, 1992
I spoke with John Varones of Gov. Edgar's staff and he has
sent me the attached material. According to John, the basic
feeling of many farmers is that, even though EPA has not issued a
final regulation concerning the nine highest smog cities (the
comment period for the proposed reg. recently ended) they are
biased against ethanol and that there is not good science behind
their rationale. The farmers feel that they are being outmuscled
by the oil industry. There is also, as I'm sure you are aware, a
Madigan Plan on ethanol that the farmers are more in favor of
than the EPA approach.
I did see a television interview yesterday with the Illinois
State Treasurer, Pat Quinn, a Democrat, following on the
appearance of Sen. Gore at the Illinois Fair. The implication he
conveyed was that Gov. Clinton would have a more favorable
position on ethanol than The President and Bill Reilly.
Attachments
AUG-21-1992 13:37 FROM SPRINGFIELD STAFF OFC
TO
P.03
THE
STATE OF ILLINOIS
OFFICE OF THE GOVERNOR
SPRINGFIELD 62706
JIM EDGAR
GOVERNOR
TESTIMONY BEFORE THE
HOUSE AGRICULTURE SUBCOMMITTEE ON
FOREST, FAMILY FARMS AND ENERGY
BY
JIM EDGAR, GOVERNOR
STATE OF ILLINOIS
AND
VICE CHAIRMAN
GOVERNORS' ETHANOL COALITION
APRIL 29, 1992
Printed on Recycled Paper
AUG-21-1992 13:37 FROM SPRINGFIELD STAFF OFC
TO
P.04
Chairman Volkmer and distinguished members of the Subcommittee on Forests,
Family Farms, and Energy, with me today are Mr. John White, President of the
Illinois Farm Bureau, Mr. Scott Durbin, President of The Illinois Corn Growers
Association, and Ms. Becky Doyle, Director of the Illinois Department of
Agriculture.
I am pleased to be here today to testify on behalf of the citizens of the State of
Illinois. In addition, as Vice Chairman of the Governors' Ethanol Coalition, I
wish to present the views of that organization as well. The coalition was formed
last October and consists of governors from sixteen states. Governor Ben Nelson
of Nebraska serves as the chairman.
Even though ethanol is a relatively new transportation fuel and the ethanol
industry is still young, the industry is composed of companies that are strong and
experienced producers and marketers. Ethanol has proved that it can help
extend gasoline supplies, reduce oil imports, and provide enormous economic
benefits to our agricultural economy.
The use of ethanol as a transportation fuel is a very important economic issue
throughout the nation, but it is particularly critical in my home state. Illinois
produces over one-half of the nation's one billion gallons of ethanol. Consumers
in Illinois use more ethanol than any other state. Fully, seventeen percent of the
Illinois corn crop is used in the production of ethanol. It is estimated that the
ethanol industry employs about 10,000 people nationwide, directly or indirectly,
excluding corn producers,
We are here today, however, to discuss the environmental benefits of ethanol in
meeting the new clean air act standards. As a transportation fuel, sthanol has
only begun to show its potential to reduce dangerous emissions from urban
vehicle traffic. Ten percent blends of ethanol have demonstrated
AUG-21-1992 13:37 FROM SPRINGFIELD STAFF OFC
TO
P.05
SENT DT-ABRUX relecopaer IV6V , 0-61-06 1 1
in Denver, Phoenix and other cities that carbon monoxide can be reduced an
average of 20 percent. In Chicago, where nearly one-third of the gasoline is
blended with ethanol, carbon monoxide levels have declined to a point where
today they remain well below U.S. EPA standards.
Our immediate challenge is to demonstrate ethanol's potential to reduce urban
ozone levels in areas like Southern California and many east coast cities. In my
state, the ozone concerns center around Chicago and the St. Louis metropolitan
area. Preliminary research in St. Louis and New York has shown that a 10
percent ethanol blend did not-result in any increase in ozone. This study implies
that, when 10 percent ethanol is blended with reformulated gasoline, ozone can
actually be reduced.
Illinois is working on research to model the impacts of 10 percent ethanol blends
on ozone formation. We are confident that these efforts will document ethanol's
positive role in meeting the goals of the Clean Air Act to reduce both ozone and
carbon monoxide levels in our environment.
The impact of ethanol blended fuels on the ozone is not completely known by
scientists. More research is important to our understanding of ethanol's effect on
ozone formation. However, there is sufficient reason to believe that the reduction
in carbon monoxide and lower reactivity levels attributable to ethanol blended
gasoline will help reduce ozone. I respectfully ask that the U.S. EPA not
preclude sthanol from playing a role in the fight for cleaner air.
Illinois and other sthanol producing states have made a commitment based on a
belief that ethanol would be part of the national solution to our air pollution
problems. We believe that Congress understood that ethanol would be a
component in complying with the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990.
-3-
AUG-21-1992 13:38 FROM SPRINGFIELD STAFF OFC
TO
P.06
In Illinois, this commitment can be seen in demonstration projects that test
ethanol in various vehicles. Illinois' demonstrations currently include fourteen
buses which will be operated on 95 percent ethanol by the Peoria Mass Transit
District; a state fleet demonstration of twelve variable fueled Chevrolet Luminas
which will use 85 percent ethanol; and a heavy duty truck fleet demonstration in
cooperation with the U.S. Department of Energy, the Detroit Diesel company and
ADM. Others in the Governors' Ethanol Coalition are undertaking similar and
complementary research and demonstration projects in their own states.
The recent amendments to the Clean Air Act already threaten severe economic
hardship in the Midwest, especially where Illinois basin coal is mined and
burned. Higher electric rates and unemployment in the Midwest are the legacy
of those amendments. Now, in response to the U.S. EPA rules excluding ethanol,
the ethanol industry has indefinitely postponed plans to increase new production
capacity by up to 350 million gallons per year. This would result in a loss of
capital investment of about $750 million and approximately 2,500 permanent
jobs. It would have also meant an expanded market for American farmers.
It is crucial that the fledgling ethanol industry be given the chance to prove itself
as a solution to urban pollution rather than being branded as a problem. U.S.
EPA's simple models do not account for ethanol's benefits of reduced reactivity,
carbon monoxide reduction and carbon dioxide recycling in the atmosphere. U.S.
EPA will not have its more complex model available in time to allow ethanol to
play a role in the reformulated gasoline markets. In the meantime, that agency
has issued proposed regulations which essentially prohibit the use of
domestically produced ethanol in meeting clean air act ozone standards.
-3-
AUG-21-1992 13:39 FROM SPRINGFIELD STAFF OFC
TO
P.07
VENT , V "
U.S. EPA actions that hinder the use of ethanol also have the dual effect of
further increasing our dependence on foreign oil. In that respect, I would much
rather be dependent on a corn farmer from the Midwest than an oil baron from
the Mideast for my fuel.
On behalf of the Governors' Ethanol Coalition and the State of Illinois, I want to
express our appreciation for the strong support for the ethanol industry which
this committee has shown. Now, more than ever, your support and interest in
ethanol as a viable alternative transportation fuel under the Clean Air Act is
needed. We have a very short time frame to develop the scientific data and
ensure that the rules and regulations for reformulated gasoline are fair for all
fuels.
The adoption of these regulations, as they stand, severely threatens both the
viability of the ethanol industry and the continued growth of the agricultural
economy in Illinois and the nation. We will lose the economic, environmental and
energy security benefits of the nation's only renewable, domestically produced
transportation fuel.
Enclosed are studies from Illinois state executive departments which elaborate
on the economic, energy and environmental benefits of ethanol as an alternative,
renewable and domestically produced transportation fuel.
AUG-21-1992 13:39 FROM SPRINGFIELD STAFF OFC
TO
P.08
THE
STATE OF ILLINOIS
OFFICE OF THE GOVERNOR
SPRINGFIELD 62706
JIM ROGAR
GOVERNOR
Testimony Before the
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
on Regulations of Fuels and Fuel Additives:
Standards for Reformulated and Conventional Gasoline
By
Jim Edgar, Governor
State of Illingis
and
Vice Chairman
Governors' Ethanol Coalition
Holiday Inn Centre
Chicago, Dhincis
June 9, 1992
Printed on Rebycled Paper
AUG-21-1992 13:39 FROM SPRINGFIELD STAFF OFC
TO
P.09
U.S. EPA actions that hinder the use of ethanol also have the dual effect of
further increasing our dependence on foreign oil. In that respect, I would much
rather be dependent on a corn farmer from the Midwest than an oil baron from
the Mideast for my fuel.
On behalf of the Governors' Ethanol Coalition and the State of Illinois, I want to
express our appreciation for the strong support for the ethanol industry which
this committee has shown. Now, more than ever, your support and interest in
ethanol as a viable alternative transportation fuel under the Clean Air Act is
needed. We have a very short time frame to develop the scientific data and
ensure that the rules and regulations for reformulated gasoline are fair for all
fuels.
The adoption of these regulations, as they stand, severely threatens both the
viability of the ethanol industry and the continued growth of the agricultural
economy in Illinois and the nation. We will lose the economic, environmental and
energy security benefits of the nation's only renewable, domestically produced
transportation fuel.
Enclosed are studies from Illinois state executive departments which elaborate
on the economic, energy and environmental benefits of ethanol as an alternative,
renewable and domestically produced transportation fuel.
-4-
AUG-21-1992 13:40 FROM SPRINGFIELD STAFF OFC
TO
P.10
We have a direct and vested interest in ensuring that appropriate decisions are
made which help reduce the air pollution, especially in our urban centers. Both
Chicago and the Metro-East St. Louis region of Illinois are in non-attainment
for ozone. We will have to propose actions in both areas which reduce ozone to
acceptable levels. We are committed to meeting the air requirements for our
urban areas.
The Illinois ethanol industry, while modest and young by oil industry and utility
standards, represents one opening among the economic clouds of the Clean Air
Act for Illinois.
We believe ethanol is a clean fuel that can help this country meet the goals of
the Clean Air Act. Ethanol is a fuel extender and an octane enhancer made
from renewable resources. It can help reduce the tide of foreign oil imports,
replace the octane lost as lead and other toxics are removed from gasoline, and
finally help clean up forty carbon monoxide non-attainment cities throughout
the nation.
Ethanol should be allowed to compete in the reformulated gasoline market
based upon research that its use will not create ozone problems. In fact, recent
research not only contradicts fears about ethanol, but indicates ethanol will help
reduce ozone problems.
This recent research is especially important to recognizing fact from fiction -
hypothesis versus reality. We believe reformulated gasoline blended with 10
percent ethanol performs well in reducing ozone.
Dr. Gary Whitten of Systems Applications International, will present
information during this hearing about ozone studies conducted in St. Louis,
New ethanol. York City and Chicago specifically directed at the question of 10 percent
The use of ethanol to improve air quality is not new. It has already been used to
reduce carbon monoxide by 20 percent in non-attainment areas. Ethanol is the
nation's dioxide. only renewable motor fuel. It is made from plants which recycle carbon
The bottom line question today is: Do 10 percent ethanol blends cause the
formation of ozone? The goal of the Clean Air Act is to reduce ozone. Today, the
assumptions against ethanol are based on atmospheric models. This modeling
is inadequate and yet this simple approach is greatly damaging ethanol's future.
The State of Illinois, its ethanol industry, and agriculture interests have been
willing to put time and resources toward the development of more complex
modeling techniques which take into account the chemical reactivity of the
emissions as well as their size. Further, the State of Illinois is willing to
consider the results of that research to identify alternatives for ozone reduction
in urban areas.
As I mentioned earlier, Dr. Whitten has conducted research on models which
more accurately predict ozone production in areas where 10 percent blends of
ethanol are part of reformulated fuels. The results of his research in the
Chicago Metropolitan Area are that 10 percent ethanol blends with
reformulated gasoline performed well compared with other reformulated
gasoline in ozone reduction. Dr. Whitten will describe his research in further
detail.
-2-
AUG-21-1992 13:41 FROM SPRINGFIELD STAFF OFC
TO
P.11
In summary, when the Clean Air Act Amendments were being negotiated by
Congress, many states, environmentalists, and alternative energy advocates
thought one of the important purposes of the Act was to encourage the
production and use of clean alternative fuels to improve the air quality of our
cities, and reduce our dependence on foreign oil.
During the process, a central feature of reformulated gasoline became low
volatility. Although clean burning, ethanol was severely restricted from
competition because of the high volatility of ethanol blends. I do not believe
that this result matches Congressional intent.
There are serious consequences to your decisions and actions. Before this
nation takes action that may curtail the further development of this renewable
fuel, I urge you to examine the recent data. I ask you to look for ways to craft
these regulations SO as not to preclude 10 percent ethanol blends from
competing in the reformulated gasoline market. Thank you.
Now it is my privilege to introduce the next speaker. One year ago, Governor
Ben Nelson of Nebraska asked me if I would be interested in forming with him a
coalition of Governors interested in promotion and marketing of ethanol.
As a result of Governor Nelson's good efforts, Illinois and 15 other states make
up the Governors' Ethanol Coalition. Under bis leadership, the coalition has
done a good job focusing the public policy debate on ethanol. Ladies and
gentlemen, let me introduce the Governor of the state of Nebraska, the
Honorable Ben Nelson.
-8-
AUG-21-1992 13:41 FROM SPRINGFIELD STAFF OFC
TO
P.12
NEWS
STATE
LIMITE
From the Office of
THE GOVERNOR
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
April 29, 1992
Contact: 217/782-7355
EDGAR URGES CONGRESS
TO HELP SPIKE EFFORTS
TO RESTRICT ETHANOL USE
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Gov. Jim Edgar today urged a House
subcommittee to join the fight against proposed restrictions on
the sale of ethanol blended gasoline.
"It is crucial that the developing ethanol industry be
given the chance to prove its value in reducing urban
pollution," the Governor said in testimony before a
subcommittee of the House Agriculture Committee.
"The use of ethanol as a transportation fuel is a very
important economic issue throughout the nation, but is
particularly critical in my state. Illinois produces more than
one-half of the nation's one billion gallons of
ethanol
Fully 17 percent of the corn grown in Illinois is
used in the production of ethanol," Edgar said.
"It is estimated about 10,000 people -- excluding corn
growers -- are employed nationwide directly or indirectly by
the ethanol industry."
The Governor took strong exception to proposed rules by the
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to bar the sale of ethanol
blended fuel in urban areas that have high ozone levels. The
(more)
Printed on Recycled Paper
AUG-21-1992 13:42 FROM SPRINGFIELD STAFF OFC
TO
P.13
EDGAR/2222
agency has maintained ethanol aggravates ozone problems, but
Edgar argued that studies have shown the opposite.
"Ten percent blends of ethanol demonstrated in Denver,
Phoenix and other cities that carbon monoxide levels can be
reduced an average of 20 percent. In Chicago, where nearly
one-third of the gasoline is blended with ethanol, carbon
monoxide levels have declined to a point where today they
remain well below the standards set by the EPA," the Governor
said.
Edgar is vice chairman of the Governors' Ethanol Coalition,
which includes governors of 16 states and is chaired by
Nebraska Gov. Ben Nelson.
The Illinois chief executive was accompanied to the
subcommittee hearing by John White, president of the Illinois
Farm Bureau; Scott Durbin, president of the Illinois Corn
Growers Association, and Becky Doyle, director of the Illinois
Department of Agriculture.
Also joining Edgar was U.S. Rep. Tom Ewing (R-Ill.),
another leading advocate of the ethanol fuel.
Ewing said, "Expanded use of ethanol is not only good for
Illinois farmers who need markets for corn products, but
ethanol can help improve our environment and reduce our
dependence on foreign energy sources.
"It was the intent of Congress that the Clean Air Act would
allow ethanol to compete with other alternative fuels to clean
up our nation's air, and the proposed EPA regulations do not
(more)
AUG-21-1992 13:42 FROM SPRINGFIELD STAFF OFC
TO
P.14
SENT BY:Xerox Telecopier 7020 ; 8-21-92 ; 12:03 ;
2177823560-
EDGAR/3333
honor that intent. It is critical that regulations be written
which will allow athanol to fairly compete with other
alternative fuels. How this issue is resolved will have a
profound effect on Illinois agriculture and the Illinois
economy for many years to come."
The federal EPA is attacking the use of ethanol in proposed
rules to implement revisions to the Clean Air Act.
Edgar has supported higher air quality standards but has
urged that they be implemented without causing undue economic
hardship to Illinois and other coal-producing states.
In his testimony to the House subcommittee, the Governor
said the proposed ban on ethanol use in many large cities would
heap economic injury upon economic injury.
"The ethanol industry has indefinitely postponed plans to
increase now production capacity by up to 350 million gallons a
year -- 70 percent of that in Illinois. This translates into
$750 million in loss of capital investment and about 2,500
jobs," Edgar said.
He added the blow to the ethanol industry undermines the
nation's efforts to reduce its energy dependence on foreign
nations.
"I would much rather be dependent on a corn farmer from the
Midwest than on an oil baron from the Mideast," Edgar said.
###
AUG-21-1992
13:43
FROM
SPRINGFIELD
STAFF
OFC
TO
P.15
WED7.92
Voice of the People
Trib. 5.27.92 RA
Ethanol is good for business and air
SPRINGFIELD-Your May 12 editorial
economic benefits for Illinois. The curtailing of
criticizing my support for ethanol in tastimony
the sthanol industry's growth hurts farmers,
before the U.S. Congress could have come straight
construction workers, plant workers and Illinois
from the Big Oil propessada presses.
taxpayers.
Your assertion that ethanoi is A dirty fuel defice
Illinois produces more sthanol than any other
understanding. Studies in Denver, Phoenix and
state. The 500 million gallons of ethanol annually
other cities show that use of ethanol-blended fuel
produced in Illinois add about $600 million to our
can reduce carbon monoxide emissions by an
gross state product. More than 5,000 jobs have
average of 20 percent. In Chicago, nearly one-
been created in sthemol production, not counting
third of the garoline is blended with ethanol, and
the thousands of farmers who supply the new
carbon monoxide levels have fallen below federal
materials. Seventeen percent-or 195 million
Environmental Protection Agency standards. At
bushels-of Illinois' annual com production is
the same time, carbon monoxide levels have
used in the production of ethanol, which is of
exceeded the standards in nearty 40 other cities in
great consequence to the Chicago Board of Trade.
which ethanol is not as widely used.
Your position that the doubling of ethanol sales
Moreover, ethanoi reduces carbon dioxide-the
would only negligibly reduce our nation's
main culprit in global warming.
dependence on foreign oil is shortsighted at best.
Despite that evidence, bureaucrats as the U.S.
Most of the $2 billion paid by consumers for
Environmental Protection Agency-with Bio Oil
will stay in the domestic economy.
egging them on-have moved to prematurely
Gasoline produced from imported oil sends much
exclude ethanol as a clean fuel option. And I-
needed capital out of our country.
armed with scientific data-went before the
Further, substituting two-billion gallons of
Congress to urge that the bureaucrars be blocked.
domestically produced, renewable sthanol for
Many experts simply do not buy-as you down
imported fuel helps increase our energy security
the false notion that ethanol's higher volatility
and reduce our balance of trade deficit-12
helps create unhealthy ozone. They cite a New
percent of which is attributable to the use of
York City study that indicates reformulated
imported oil.
gasoline blended with 10 percent ethanol performs
By giving ethanol a fair shot in the marketplace,
equally well in reducing ozone as does the
we can improve Chicago's air quality, create jobs
oxygenate approved by the federal EPA. We are
in Illinois and help move the nation closer to
confident that ongoing research coordinated with
energy independence. Big Oil may not like it, but
the Lake Michigan Ozone Study will show similar
what is good for Big Oil is not necessarily what is
results for ethanol-blended fuels.
good for Illinois or for America.
Ethanol is clearly a clean fuel with
Gev. Jim Edgar
environmental benefits for the nation and
21/92
15:59
202 260 0581
EPA PUBLIC LIA
v50353exec
r P AP-Reilly-Ethanol
08-19 0447
^AP-Reilly-Ethanol
^Reilly: EPA Not Considering Ethanol Waiver
^By MIKE GLOVER-
^Associated Press Writer=
HOUSTON (AP) . In a blow to corn-producing states, Environsental
Protection Agency head William Reilly said his agency won't grant
broad fuels. tax incentives designed to promote use of ethanol-blended
He said sore modest incentives were being considered, and could
be announced within a few days. The larger progras sagerly sought
by Midwestern politicans has been ruled out, he said.
Ethanol fuels are derived from corn and are considered a
potential major new product by farmers. The environmental agency
has said in a prelisinary finding that ethanol pollutes sore than
other fuels, but that is disputed by fare interests.
Reilly insisted that the Bush Adainistration was cossitted to
expanding use of the fuels but ' 'WE don't need to relax the Clean
Air Act to do that.
"We're going to make sure that we protect the environment and
reinforce the other."
that we also prosote the farsers, " Reilly said. They'11 each
His comments case during an interview after his speech to the
Republican National Convention.
Midwestern politicians were predictably angry, saying they have
been pressuring administration officials throughout the convention.
'There was never an indication of that decision," said David
Roederer, top side to Iowa BOP Gov. Terry Branstad. 'That answer
is not acceptable.'
It had been widely anticipated that Reilly would use his speech
ethanol-blended fuels.
to announce that the EPA was granting new incentives for the use of
At issue is a special waiver the EPA aust grant to allow broad
tax breaks on the fuel in the nation's nost polluted cities.
Ethanol has become a political issue as well. Desocrat Bill
through the Midwest.
Clinton argued for expanded ethanol use during a recent bus swing
Republican politicians in the region have warned that President
Bush will suffer if he doesn't reverse field.
After his speech, Reilly was asked about the issue and said:
'Well, if you're talking about giving a waiver for ... ethanol, we
are not considering that. I don't think the science supports it,
and 1 don't think I have legal authority to do it."
The couplex issue has drawn little attention outside the
Midwest, but close scrutiny there.
Reilly defended the administration's record, and said sore
initiativos would be announced quickly.
' We have some ideas about how we're going to promote more
sthanol use, and we'll be getting into those in the next few
days,' he said. The president, I think, is going to do that.'
AP-NP-03-19-92 0913EDT(
08/21/92
15:58
202 260 0581
EPA PUBLIC LIA
001/002
U. S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
SEPA
Office of External Relations and Education
Washington, D. C. 20460'
UNITED PROTECTION STATES. AGENLY
FACSIMILE REQUEST AND COVER SHEET
TO:
Jennifer Grossman
OFFICE PHONE:
REGION:
CITY:
FROM:
Peggy Harlow Knight
FAX
OFFICE PHONE: 260-4454
260 0130
SECTION or BRANCH:
DATE:
Number of Pages
(Sumber of Pages to Include This Cover Sheet)
MAIL CODE: A-108
FAX #260-0130
COMMENTS
08/21/92
15:59
202 260 0581
EPA PUBLIC LIA
002/002
v50353exec
r P AP-Reilly-Ethanol
08-19 0447
^AP-Reilly-Ethanol
^Reilly: EPA Not Considering Ethanol Waiver
^By MIKE GLOVER=
^Associated Press Writer=
HOUSTON (AP) - In a blow to corn-producing states, Environsental
Protection Agency head William Reilly said his agency won't grant
broad tax incentives designed to promote use of sthanol-blended
fuels.
He said sore modest incentives were being considered, and could
be announced within a few days The larger progras eagerly sought
by Midwestern politicans has been ruled out, he said.
Ethanol fuels are derived from corn and are considered a
potential major new product by farmers. The environmental agency
WENDY
has said in a prelisinary finding that ethanol pollutes more than
other fuels, but that is disputed by fars interests.
Reilly insisted that the Bush Adainistration was cossitted to
expanding use of the fuels but 'we don't need to relax the Clean
Air Act to de that.
"We're going to make sure that we protect the environment and
HELP!
that we also prosots the farmers,' Reilly said. They' each
reinforce the other.''
His consents case during an intervisw after his speech to the
Republican National Convention.
Midwestern politicians were predictably angry, saying they have
been pressuring administration officials throughout the convention.
*There was never an indication of that decision,' said David
Roaderer, top aide to Iowa GOP Gov. Terry Branstad. That answer
is not acceptable."
It had been widely-anticipated that Reilly would use his speech
Peggy -
to announce that the EPA was granting new incentives for the use of
ethanol-blended fuels.
At issue is a special waiver the EPA must grant to allow broad
tax breaks on the fuel in the nation's most polluted cities.
Ph.260 Ph.2604454 4454
Ethanol has become a political issue as well. Desocrat Bill
Clinton argued for expanded ethanol use during a recent bus swing
through the Midwest.
Republican politicians in the region have warned that President
Bush will suffer if he doesn't reverse field.
After his speech, Reilly was asked about the issue and said:
''Well, if you're talking about giving a waiver for ... sthanol, we
are not considering that. I don't think the science supports it,
and I don't think I have legal authority to do it.''
The couplex issue has drawn little attention outside the
Midwest, but close scrutiny there.
Reilly defended the adsinistration's record, and said sore
initiatives would be announced quickly.
' We have some ideas about how we're going to promote sore
ethanol use, and we'll be getting into those in the next few
days,'' he said. The president, I think, is going to do that.
X
AP-NP-08-19-92 0913EDT(
BUSINESS
Mechanical failure
Midwestern manufacturers are bracing for recession's return
xecutives of Harbison-Walker
slumped. During mid-November, for
Refractories came to Washing-
example, sales of domestic cars and
ton, D.C., last May to accept the
light trucks were down 18.7 percent
president's "E" Award for Excellence
from a year earlier.
in Exporting, but workers 800 miles
Even exports, which have bolstered
away at the company's plant in Vanda-
the industrial sector over the past sev-
lia, Mo., were hardly in a mood to cele-
eral years, have begun to show signs of
brate. The Harbison plant, which
weakness. Export growth during 1991
makes furnace linings for steel and
has slowed to just over 3 percent, half
other industries, was being forced to
of what it was a year ago, largely be-
shut down its kiln and idle three quar-
cause the powerful economies of both
ters of its 200-person work force for
three weeks - its first such closing ever.
Holding on
Cast adrift, Harbison's furloughed em-
in the heartland
ployees were stunned by their fate. Af-
After briefly recovering last
ter struggling through 10 months of
spring, America's critical
nasty recession, Midwestern manufac-
manufacturing sector may
turing appeared to be rebounding last
now be slipping back into
spring, but harsh reality suddenly set in
the grip of recession as car
and has since enveloped the industrial
sales plummet and exports
heartland. It "looked like a typical re-
soften because of weak
covery," says Paul O'Neill, chief execu-
overseas demand.
tive officer of Alcoa in Pittsburgh.
"Then the world fell off a cliff." Adds
Thomas McKeon, president of the
sales division of Blandin Paper Co. in
Grand Rapids, Minn., "I haven't
seen business as bad as it is now in
30 years.
Many Midwestern manufactur-
ers believe that their regional
economy could easily slip back
into recession. And with good
reason. The industrial pro-
duction index has barely
budged this fall, and factory
capacity is now at the low-
est level-79.6 percent -
of the past four months.
With production stalled
and plant utilization down,
thousands more workers are
sure to face unemployment. In
October, the nation lost 32,000
Industrial production
manufacturing jobs after gaining a
Index, total Industry
total of 18,000 in the third quarter.
(1987=100)
120
Rising joblessness has led to sluggish
income growth. The government last
week reported that wages and sala-
ries actually fell by 0.2 percent in
110
October. And, with credit tight and
consumer confidence plummeting to
105
near record lows, purchases of dura-
ble manufactured goods have
100
58
1990
1991
RICHARD USN&WR
Japan and Germany are cooling off.
Closely dependent upon Detroit is the
Despite their fears, most manufac-
steel industry, which has seen produc-
turers have coped with far tougher
tion slide by about 12 percent in 1991
Cat claws
times in the past. During the recession
compared with 1990. LTV, Bethlehem
of 1981-82, industrial companies lost 2.1
Steel and Inland Steel all were hit with
million jobs, nearly triple the 786,000
losses in the third quarter, and USX re-
positions cut since July 1990. One main
ported a measly profit of just $5 million,
its way to
difference between then and now is
a drop of 94 percent from the same pe-
America's sharpened competitiveness.
riod last year.
stronger trade balance has provided
As the recession ripples down the
the future
cushion this time, says fill Thomp
supply chain, layoffs have occurred at
son, a senior economist at DRI/Mc-
such raw material producers as Eveleth
Graw-Hill. Also bolstering manufactur-
Mines in northern Minnesota, which
ing today is the extensive belt
processes iron ore for steel. Just as
Peoria's pride is
tightening that firms were forced to
there was "some optimism that things
undergo during the 1980s. This cor-
would come back," says Eveleth Gen-
targeting labor costs
porate restructuring has led to gains
eral Manager Dick Harmon, 600 of the
in industrial productivity.
company's 728 workers had to be idled
L
ike Coca-Cola, Caterpillar is an
The most notable casualty of
for three weeks. Manufacturers in a
American icon. Its familiar yellow
the manufacturing downturn has
number of other industries have also
machines are respected the world
been the decimated auto indus-
been hurt. The $26 million Blandin Pa-
over for their dependability, quality and
try. In the third quarter of this
per Co., for instance, has had to offer
strength. Generators powered by Cater-
year, General Motors, Ford
sizable discounts just to maintain its
pillar diesel engines today supply elec-
and Chrysler lost a combined
business.
tricity for war-ravaged Kuwait. In Japan,
$1.76 billion, compared
Jerry Jerome, president of Jerome
immense Caterpillar bulldozers are
with just $3 million in
Foods in Barron, Wis., is also cutting
carving out a major new airport. But in-
total losses during
prices. Demand for Jerome's turkeys
side building SS in East Peoria, III.,
the third quarter of
usually peaks during the holiday sea-
where Caterpillar builds bulldozers that
1990. Auto makers
son, but the poultry producer has been
sell abroad for upward of $1 million
will now be forced
forced by frugal consumers to sell his
apiece, the factory line is still. At the
to shut down ad-
birds for 16 percent less this year. Like
plant gate, a clutch of grizzled workers
ditional plants.
so many worried executives and work-
wearing "I'm sticking with the Union"
ers in America's industrial heartland
buttons huddles near a 55-gallon drum
today, Jerry Jerome knows firsthand
filled with blazing timbers.
just how foul the nation's economy has
The United Auto Workers selectively
become.
struck two Caterpillar plants with 2,400
workers in early November when con-
BY RICHARD J. NEWMAN
tract negotiations broke down. The
AND SARA COLLINS
company quickly responded by locking
out 5,600 more laborers at other facili-
ties, and no one expects work to resume
soon. "Everyone prepared for this," ex-
plains picketer Dennis Lindo, who in
better times assembles radiators for the
giant tractors. "We've saved money and
cut down our bills. We're looking at a
four-monther, at least."
Busting the union? Labor negotiations
at the world's largest manufacturer of
earthmoving, materials-handling and
construction equipment nearly always
are marked by walkouts; the longest, in
1982, lasted 205 days. But this is no ordi-
nary strike. This time, charges Jerry
Brown, president of UAW Local 974, the
largest of seven locals involved, "I think
Average weekly earning
Average weekly hours
they are hellbent on busting the union."
manufacturing
manufacturing
At Caterpillar's Peoria headquarters,
(1982 dollars)
chief company negotiator Jerry Brust
sees it differently. "We've got to bargain
a contract that allows us some promise of
continuing to compete for five or 10 years
to come," he says. But if Cat gains the
concessions it wants, the outcome could
reverberate far beyond its factory gates.
Caterpillar's management, as tough
as its machinery, seeks to end two key
1990
1990
1991
59
WR-Basic data: Federal Reserve Board, U.S. Dept. of Labor
BUSINESS
DAVID
STAR
BAIGAIN,
DIVDED
lion, of which a record $6 billion was
practices that have been the
HE
EGI,
earned overseas. Although nearly half
foundation of UAW strength.
of Cat's foreign sales came from 15
The first is "pattern bargain-
plants outside the United States, 17
ing," in which a contract nego-
American factories exported $3.4 bil-
tiated at one company is ex-
lion worth of machines that supported
pected to be followed by its
18,500 jobs. Even when Cat's imports of
competitors in the same in-
parts and machines are taken into ac-
dustry. The UAW wants Cat
count, the company contributed $1.9
billion to the nation's trade balance.
to accept the terms of a con-
tract recently cut with Deere
Caterpillar first got serious about
& Co., which makes agricul-
competition a decade ago. For half a
tural and construction equip-
century until 1982, the company had
ment; Caterpillar claims that
turned a profit every year as buyers
Deere's situation isn't compa-
lined up for its equipment. Then, with
Striking out. Cat's workers walk the picket line.
rable because as a major U.S.
the severe recession that followed the
exporter Cat needs to control costs to
oil shocks, its familiar world ended.
quarter losses would top that figure.
compete globally. Caterpillar also wants
Huge public-works projects that used
UAW workers at Caterpillar's fac-
to negotiate different agreements for
lots of Cat equipment evaporated, and,
tories have long enjoyed pay and benefits
each of its newly formed profit centers
at the same time, Komatsu mounted a
that are the envy of those who work in
rather than a central contract that covers
challenge with high-quality earth-
many other Midwestern plants. "We're
all seven UAW locals. This, says the
movers. Cat slashed prices to hold its
not suggesting we want to cut wages,"
union, is a "divide and conquer" strategy.
share of a declining market, losing near-
Brust says, just slow the rate of increase.
Piling up losses. For nearly a year, Cat-
ly $1 billion between 1982 and 1984.
"We've invested in technology so we can
erpillar has laid the groundwork for the
Shutting factories. Since then, Cat's
be productive with highly paid, highly
chastened executives have transformed
current confrontation. Since February, it
skilled employees. But there is a limit to
has run a series of newspaper ads outlin-
the way the company does business. By
it." Cat's last proposal to the UAW
ing its positions, warning pointedly that if
closing plants and purchasing many parts
would raise average hourly wages from
it didn't remain competitive it could lose
rather than making every bolt and screw
$16.98 to $18.97 over three years. With all
business to foreign rivals like Japan's Ko-
itself, Caterpillar cut employment in the
health and pension benefits included, the
matsu Ltd., shift production to different
Peoria area from 36,000 to 17,000. The
hourly average would rise from $32.35 to
facilities or buy more parts from other
five-year, $2.1 billion "Plant With a Fu-
$37.50-slightly ahead of the anticipated
companies. Workers have been bom-
ture" program, to be completed in 1993,
inflation rate. But since the offer did not
barded by company mailings. Inventories
aims to install the latest manufacturing
include pattern bargaining and a strong
have been built up so sales could contin-
systems. Already, quality is up-"You
central agreement, the UAW rejected it
ue during a strike. And given the current
won't find any sledgehammers on the
after a four-minute caucus.
worldwide construction slowdown, those
line anymore," says one worker and at
As a large net exporter of American-:
inventories could last quite a while: Sales
the plant in Decatur, III., the time re-
made products, Caterpillar argues that
have dropped so sharply that Cat report-
quired to make a motor grader has been
labor agreements must reflect its status
ed a loss of $86 million for the first three
cut from 20 days to five. Last year, the
as a major international competitor. In
quarters of 1991 and warned that fourth-
company shed its old-fashioned func-
1990, Caterpillar sales totaled $11.1 bil-
tional organization, where no one had
BOB SACHA
clear responsibility to make money, and
substituted profit centers, each geared to
a product line and set of customers.
Restructuring labor agreements to
reduce costs is the last step in Cat's
campaign for competitiveness, and it
may be the hardest of all to achieve.
Even though pattern bargaining disap-
peared in the 1980s in other major in-
dustries like paper, meatpacking, truck-
ing and rubber, Caterpillar is clearly a
vigorous competitor whose market
shares have been rising under the pres-
ent labor agreement in nearly every
equipment line, according to Machinery
Outlook, an industry newsletter. The
UAW is also strong, and it has a big
strike fund. In addition, many of its
Caterpillar members are older men who
successfully weathered the long 1982
strike. "This," says picketer Dennis
Lindo, "is not my first rodeo." Neither,
however, is it Caterpillar's.
In the hole. A slowdown in global construction has hurt Caterpillar's profits.
BY WILLIAM J. COOK
60
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, DECEMBER 9, 1991
The commission said it wanted to keep
THE
the jobs at home. In Seattle, plans to buy
the Mariners baseball team by a group
led by Japanese investors set off a debate
about whether the franchise should be
moved to St. Petersburg, Fla., to keep
it in American hands. In Congress,
House Majority Leader Richard Gep-
hardt again introduced a protectionist
'AMERICA
trade package that would require Japan
to eliminate its trade surplus with the
United States within five years or face
deep cuts in Japanese car imports.
The president, clearly, is listening.
Bush still can point to major initiatives to
prove his bona fides as an international-
ist: Last week, he proposed $645 million
in new assistance for Russia and the oth-
FIRST' COMPAIGN
er former Soviet republics over the next
two years. And he is still nurturing Mid-
dle East peace talks, despite growing ap-
prehensions in the White House. Over-
all, though, Bush has been timid about
confronting the "America first" crowd
and is allowing overblown fears of an
isolationist, election-year backlash to
FALLACIES
shape some key decisions:
Far East debacle. Bush badly overreact-
ed to Democrat Harris Wofford's victory
last fall in Pennsylvania's Senate race.
Misreading the potency of Wofford's slo-
gan - "It's time to take care of our
own" - Bush postponed his long-sched-
New cries for protectionism and isolationism
uled Far East trip, then rebilled it as a
job-creating mission. It failed. Instead of
are coming from Congress, and the campaign
opening new markets or breaking down
trade barriers, Bush won a handful of
trail and key policies are already being affected.
concessions for U.S. auto makers, includ-
ing Japan's tentative agreement to buy
But these sentiments rest on misleading myths
20,000 U.S. cars or $10 billion worth of
auto parts. Later, Japanese Prime Minis-
LISA QUINONES BLACK STAR
ter Kiichi Miyazawa backpedaled, saying
R
epublican presidential candidate
he was offering a target, not a pledge.
Patrick Buchanan brands George
Kid-gloves trade policy. The "Uruguay
Bush a wrongheaded globalist
Round" of international trade talks is
who "would put America's wealth and
stalled primarily because European na-
power at the service of some vague new
tions refuse to reduce sharply their gov-
world order." Instead, Buchanan wants
ernment subsidies for agricultural prod-
to "put America first." Democratic Sen.
PRIME
ucts. But Bush's credibility as a free
Tom Harkin, another presidential hope-
ful, says he's proud to be called a protec-
THE
trader was badly damaged by the im-
PUMP
tionist. Democratic Sen. Bob Kerrey
REBUILD
pression he left in Japan that he was
picks up the theme: "If I'm president,
JOBS NOW!
NEW
anxious for managed-trade arrange-
ments. That seriously weakened Ameri-
the time for begging is through. I'll tell
YORK
ca's voice at the GATT talks.
Japan that if we can't sell in their mar-
On another front, Bush says he is still
ket, they can't sell in ours."
JOBS
committed to building a free-trade zone
The voices of isolationism and protec-
tionism are on the rise-spawned by the
NOW!
that would include the United States,
Canada and Mexico. Critics contend
recession and America's search for
the administration won't complete ne-
scapegoats. The movement is much more
gotiations on it until after the Novem-
than talk. Last week, the Los Angeles
ber election 80 that Bush can avoid
County Transportation Commission, re-
election-year charges that he is encour-
sponding to public outrage, canceled Ja-
aging a shift of U.S. jobs south of
pan-based Sumitomo Corp.'s $121 mil-
the border. Administration officials say
lion contract to build rail cars for the city.
Rally 'round. Voters demand attention.
they are moving ahead steadily, but qui-
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 3, 1992
23
U.S. NEWS
tectionism is not what the voters want.
all Americans want the nation to "take
Unlike most of the candidates, the
an active part in world affairs" the
etly. "What we're going to do when we
voters do not blame the problem solely
highest such number in 26 years.
have to bring it to the Congress may be
on the competition. When they hear
While Japan is not seen as a friendly
another question," says a top aide.
Buchanan rail about "America First,"
trader, the public does not view it as the
Debt and dues blues. The administra-
they are not thinking about turning na-
source of all evil. One recent survey for
tion's best intentions on Latin Ameri-
tivist or isolationist. "They are saying
the Council on Competitiveness, for in-
can debt relief and funding for the In-
life is a matter of priorities," says Dem-
stance, showed that while a majority of
ternational Monetary Fund are being
ocratic pollster Geoffrey Garin. "And
Americans think Japan "breaks the
put on hold. Bush did not fight when
the priority now is rebuilding America."
rules of fair trade," most also look
Congress slashed his Latin debt-relief
home when searching for
CHARLES STEINER IB PICTURES
proposal, even though it would measur-
the roots of economic fail-
ably help the move to build free-market
ure. More than half of those
economies. And while he wants the
surveyed, for example, said
IMF to underwrite structural reform in
that American business is
Russia, the White House has decided
"too concerned with short-
not to fight Congress for a $12.2 billion
term profit rather than
IMF replenishment.
long-term investment." To
It is true that there is an overwhelm-
the question why America
ing logic now for the nation to be refo-
Donald's
has "problems competing
cusing its attention inward. The end of
economically," the first-
the Soviet threat makes it reasonable for
ranking response-from 41
America to contract its military and nu-
percent-was that "the
clear forces and to insist that other na-
world has changed to be-
tions share the burden. In Europe, that
come a global marketplace,
means the United States is expected to
and the United States
reduce its force level to about 75,000-
hasn't done enough to ad-
half of what is now planned, and down
just to the new challenges
from the current total of 240,000. Japan,
of economic competition."
on the other hand, will boost its pay-
Of course, America-bash-
ments from $3 billion annually to $3.8
ing is not always politically
billion by 1995 to pay the full costs of
useful, especially for Demo-
keeping American troops there.
crats courting an essential
Yet the proponents of the America-
swing voting bloc: men un-
first strategy the left and on the
der 35 who are highly patri-
right want a retreat that goes way be-
otic. Recently, they have
yond those adjustments. As Buchanan
abandoned the Democrats.
puts it: "Why must we pacify the Persian
In the last two presidential
Gulf, when women walking dogs in Cen-
elections, they wanted a
tral Park are slashed to death by bums?"
president to stand up and
As campaign talk, that's compelling. As
be tough. Now, these voters
a basis for making policy, it rests on
are both fearful and resent-
some basic myths about what Americans
ful of the current economic
want and what's best for the nation.
morass. With the demise of
Worldwide tilt. The U.S. economy stretches far.
the communist menace,
MYTH ONE
they are looking for a candi-
Voters do not want to keep the status
date who offers a real path toward eco-
AMERICANS ARE
quo, and that is a big problem for Bush.
nomic security. Paul Tsongas of Massa-
But the challenge for the candidates-
chusetts has been trying to offer an
ESPECIALLY
so far largely unmet is to try to appeal
industrial policy, and, while he is not
to a public that believes the nation's
likely to become the Democratic nomi-
ISOLATIONIST NOW
problems are caused by a complex set
nee, he is currently running second in
of circumstances, both at home and
New Hampshire.
residential politics is not about
abroad. Voters have grown increasingly
As always, solutions need to progress
nuance. And in a state like New
cynical about a nation they
beyond slogans, even in a
Hampshire, hard hit by the re-
believe has not been smart
presidential campaign.
cession, simple sentiments are particu-
enough about its approach
PERCENTAGE OF
"What's bothering people,"
larly appealing. The candidates see citi-
to business and not con-
says GOP strategist Ed Rol-
zens keenly aware that the nation is
cerned enough about issues
AMERICANS WHO SAY
lins, "is that they want to
losing ground and often complaining
like education to compete
JAPANESE FIRMS
know how we can com-
that Japan has a lot to do with it. Peo-
adequately. They want fair-
COMPETE UNFAIRLY:
pete." By nature, Ameri-
ple are angry, looking for leaders to
ness in both trade and for-
cans have always been most
make things better. And so the politi-
eign policy but understand
37. PERCENTAGE
interested in taking care of
cians come out swinging, implying that
it would be counterproduc-
WHO SAY WE BLAME
business at home. But in so
revenge is the way to make sure Ameri-
tive to dismantle either. In
doing, they do not want to
cans get jobs, jobs, jobs. Sounds great,
fact, a recent Gallup Poll
JAPAN FOR OUR OWN
withdraw from the rest of
but there is one small problem: Pro-
showed that 71 percent of
PROBLEMS: 52.
the world.
24
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT. FEBRUARY 3, 1992
MYTHTWO
Instead, most of them focus on the lesser
about $2,500 to a whopping $98,000 per
microeconomic causes of the trade defi-
job to attract the auto makers in the first
PUTTING AMERICA
cit, such as Japanese trade barriers to
place. Including positions at supplier
U.S. exports in effect, placing all the
firms, the transplants may have created
FIRST MEANS PLACING
blame on Japan. For example, Democrat
more than 110,000 jobs, many in compa-
JAPAN LAST
Tom Harkin embraces a plan pushed by
nies transformed by the Japanese-in-
House Majority Leader Richard Gep-
duced quality revolution. "How could
hardt: It would slash sales of Japanese
you say 'You must stop doing that' to
P
atrick Buchanan promises to be
cars in the United States by 250,000 a
companies that are investing billions of
"an 'America first' president"
year unless Japan cut its trade surplus
dollars in rebuilding your industrial envi-
who would "stand up to the
ronment?" Florida asks. In-
ROBERT VISUALS
tough-minded nationalists looking out
deed, for much of U.S indus-
for Japan." Paul Tsongas advocates
try, "standing up to Japan"
buying American: "If you have a
isn't the point. Sitting down
[Chrysler] Jeep and an Isuzu, I'm say-
to negotiate more invest-
ing, 'Buy the Jeep.'' Never mind that
ment from Japanese compa-
38 percent of Isuzu is owned by Gener-
nies is more like it.
al Motors; these stump speeches are de-
signed to cast Japan as this year's Willie
Americhuko The Colony of Japan:
MYTH THREE
Horton the stealthy nation that swipes
the jobs of unsuspecting Americans.
TRADE ALONE IS
Yet the rhetoric of economic national-
ism ignores a stark reality. Japan's cur-
THE KEY TO
rent trade surplus with America is $43
billion, but Japanese companies' direct
SUCCESS
investments in U.S. firms and other prop-
erties now total roughly $84 billion.
Those stakes will climb far higher in the
T
o Democratic presi-
dential candidate Bob
future, partly because of America's per-
Kerrey, "the world
sistent deficits. As these investment flows
economy is like a hockey
and other forces draw the two economies
game" and America's poor
closer, it will become harder to distin-
defense of its home market
guish U.S. interests from Japan's
"goal" has "cost us jobs and
ing the bluster of campaign '92.
destroyed companies." Pat
Although ill understood by politicians,
Buchanan, who once pushed
the growing economic symbiosis be-
for passage of the U.S.-Can-
tween the United States and Japan stems
ada free-trade agreement,
mainly from each nation's long-standing
has now undergone a con-
constructive, others dan-
version: "You can no longer
gerous. America's huge government def-
say that free trade, free
icits and low private savings yield a na-
trade, free trade is the an-
tional savings rate of just 3 percent, well
swer to everything," he as-
below the level of private investment.
serts. These attacks from
The result is a so-called balance-of-pay-
left and right seem to have
ments deficit that must be financed
Foreign investment. Controversial- but inevitable
further confused President
abroad by selling everything from Trea-
Bush, who in the past has
sury bonds to real estate and corporate
with America by 20 percent annually
preached free trade while extending im-
stock. In effect, this means America con-
over the next five years.
port quotas on steel and machine tools.
sumes more than it produces, triggering
Yet Gephardt's bill is unlikely to be
Besides signing on to more managed-
a flood of imports. Meanwhile, Japan's
enacted. Japan's U.S. car sales which
trade deals with Japan, Bush has also
lofty 15 percent national savings rate ex-
now total about a third of the American
begun referring to the proposed free-
ceeds even its staggering level of domes-
car market-couldn't be curbed without
trade agreement with Mexico as the
tic investment, leaving plenty of excess
inflaming U.S. interests as well as Japa-
"fair trade" adopting new-
capital to be invested overseas. Since Ja-
nese. Eight major Japanese auto makers,
speak normally used by protectionists
pan's state-of-the-art manufacturing
ranging from Honda to Su-
to justify trade barriers.
firms also make products Americans
baru, have sunk a total of
Not only could these
want, the nation has become the largest
roughly $9 billion into their
JAPANESE AUTO
trade tirades impede mar-
source of imports into the United States.
U.S. plants spread across
ket-opening measures; they
This relationship would be a match
eight populous states, notes
MAKERS HAVE SUNK
also foster the false impres-
made in heaven, except for two nasty side
Carnegie Mellon University
$9 BILLION INTO
sion that America's declin-
effects: It produces the politically explo-
management expert Richard
THEIR U.S. CAR
ing competitiveness stems
sive U.S. trade deficit, and it leads inexo-
Florida. These "transplants"
mainly from getting a raw
rably to a steady sell-off of U.S. assets.
employ about 30,000 Ameri-
PLANTS, HELPING TO
deal in global markets. Sta-
Yet few of the candidates suggest attack-
can workers-jobs so sought
CREATE JOBS FOR
tistics do not support that
ing the macroeconomic roots of these
after that states like Ohio,
view. From 1980 to 1990, to-
problems by reining in U.S. government
Kentucky and Indiana grant-
MORE THAN 110,000
tal world exports grew from
spending and boosting domestic savings.
ed subsidies ranging from
AMERICANS.
roughly $2 trillion to $3.4
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 3, 1992
25
U.S. NEWS
and development in areas like high-per-
formance computing. Ultimately, such
trillion, an increase of nearly 70 per-
efforts to rebuild U.S. industry from the
cent. At the same time, the U.S. share
ground up could prove vastly more re-
of those exports rose from 11.2 percent
warding than suicidal steps on trade.
to just 11.6 percent, after temporarily
declining in the middle of the decade
because of the dollar's high value. In ef-
MYTH FOUR
fect, America's world market share
barely budged-at a time when overall
AMERICA WASTES
trade was booming and global markets
TOO MUCH MONEY ON
arguably were becoming more open.
Economic chokepoint. Clearly, some-
FOREIGN AID
thing much more fundamental than for-
eign trade barriers has been hobbling
here are two myths at work here:
U.S. exports and sapping competitive-
First, that the United States gov-
ness. Many American industries have
ernment spends a large chunk of
simply been beaten by foreign competi-
its budget each year on foreign aid. And
tors better able to innovate, cut produc-
second, that most of what it spends is
tion costs and improve quality. A case
squandered on worthless projects or
in point is the U.S. steel industry, large
stolen by corrupt foreign officials.
portions of which are still foundering
Seventy percent of Americans polled
despite decades of government-sanc-
say they believe 10 percent or more of the
tioned trade protection. The industry
federal budget goes to foreign aid; nearly
now needs an estimated $10 billion to
half say aid consumes at least a quarter
$15 billion in state-of-the-art manufac-
of the budget. In fact, America spent $16
turing equipment simply to bring its
billion for economic and military aid in
products up to the level demanded by
fiscal 1991, only a little over 1 percent of
the Japanese auto transplants. By alle-
total federal spending-less than almost
viating pressure on the industry to inno-
every other developed country except
vate sooner, says James Bovard, author
Austria, according to Yale University
of "The Fair Trade Fraud," in effect,
political scientist David Lumsdaine.
"the federal government has succeeded
America's aid programs have had
in turning steel into a chokepoint on
bouts of malfeasance-food-aid money
the American economy."
used to build a tennis court in Rwanda;
That object lesson notwithstanding,
animal feed delivered as powdered milk
the government continues to attack de-
to Sudan. But corruption isn't the norm,
clining competitiveness mainly as a
and U.S. aid has helped wipe out small-
trade problem-either by pressing to
pox, reduce infant mortality and under-
open foreign markets or by erecting
write the "green revolution" in agricul-
barriers to foreign goods. Last year, for
tural science that has helped boost food
example, the U.S. International Trade
production in the Third World.
Commission imposed duties on imports
The real problem with America's for-
of flat-panel displays used in laptop
eign-aid program is that it is still fighting
computers, arguing that they were be-
the cold war. Most of what Washington
ing sold at prices below the cost of
will spend on aid this year will go either to
production and were harming U.S. dis-
Crying out for reform. Most U.S. foreign-aid
containing a defunct communist threat
play manufacturers. One small prob-
or to maintaining the 1979 Camp David
lem: There is no real flat-panel-display
abject poor will have to compete even
Accords. More than half of the Bush
industry in the United States, since
harder for a share of the aid budget.
administration's foreign-aid request for
large American manufacturers were
For the moment, the administration is
fiscal 1992 is devoted to military aid
never able to emulate the defect-free
robbing Peter to pay Paul. "I can find the
or "security related" needs. One third,
extra $100 million or $200 million" for
production methods perfected by firms
$5.27 billion, is for Israel and Egypt. An
like Sony Corp. So far, the ruling's key
humanitarian aid to the former Soviet
additional $1.12 billion is allotted to
effect has been to raise costs for U.S.
republics, says a top U.S. official. "But
North Atlantic Treaty Orga-
when it looks like the West
computer makers like IBM and Apple
nization. members Turkey,
and to prompt them to shift some pro-
has to pony up $10 billion to
Greece and Portugal.
AMERICA SPENT
duction overseas.
$15 billion [to finance struc-
Meanwhile, for fiscal 1992,
Recognizing the foibles of past trade
the administration will send
$16 BILLION ON
tural reforms] I honestly
policies, candidates Paul Tsongas and
don't know where [it's] going
just $400 million to East-
ECONOMIC AND
Bill Clinton have argued for broader
to come from." Big money,
ern Europe, and-bowing to
moves to foster competitiveness, such
MILITARY AID
the official admits, would
pressure from Congress and
as targeted capital-gains-tax cuts to spur
have to come out of the aid
the European allies-now
IN FISCAL 1991,
investment. In his proposed budget for
budgets for Israel, Egypt and
proposes to spend $985 mil-
A LITTLE MORE THAN
fiscal 1993, President Bush will also ad-
the three NATO recipients.
lion on the former Soviet re-
vance some favored solutions, including
1% OF ALL
Efforts to reform foreign
publics. Latin America's
stepped-up federal support for research
aid are bogged down in a
debtor nations and Africa's
FEDERAL SPENDING.
power struggle between the
26
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 3, 1992
ON HISTORY
BY MICHAEL BARONE
The American isolationist mirage
L
ook for isolationism in American history and you find
William Jennings Bryan and Robert La Follette, both of
a mirage: Pat Buchanan's revival of the 1940s slogan
whom had big German-American constituencies. The fight
"America First" is, like isolationist slogans of the
over Woodrow Wilson's Versailles Treaty was between
past, more a cry of despair than a counsel of practical policy.
those who, with Wilson, would bind America to enforce
From the beginning, for all our continental isolation, we
League of Nations decisions and those like Henry Cabot
have always acted as if we were part of a larger world.
Lodge who wanted to maintain a free hand to intervene.
When 22-year-old George Washington marched
"[To] isolate the United States or make it a hermit nation,"
through the woods to Fort Necessity, in what is now
said the supposedly isolationist Lodge, "is sheer absurdity."
Pennsylvania, he saw the opening skirmishes of a world
Isolationism only slowly became a political force, with
war between England and France whose decisive turns
the nativist immigration laws of 1921 and 1924, the protec-
came on the Plains of Abraham outside the walls of Que-
tionist Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1930 and, stimulated by
bec, in a monsoon-pelted mango grove in India's Ganges
depression at home and the march of dictators abroad,
delta and at the deathbed of Czarina Elizabeth in the
the Neutrality Act of 1935. By 1940, the major issue in
Winter Palace in St.
American politics was the
UPI/BETTMANN
Petersburg. The
struggle between interven-
American colonists
tionists like Franklin Roose-
won their indepen-
velt, who wanted to aid Brit-
dence in alliance
ain against Hitler's
with Britain's old
Germany, and isolationists
enemy, France; the
like Charles Lindbergh, Jo-
new nation nearly came
seph Kennedy and Robert
apart when Alexander Ham-
Taft who wanted America
ilton's Federalists took one
to stand aside and live with
side and Thomas Jefferson's
THE
DEDICAL
whoever won.
Republicans the other in the
10 AMEP.
AMERICA
The interventionists pre-
worldwide struggle between
FIRST
vailed: When Taft, who op-
Revolutionary and Napole-
posed NATO in 1949, lost to
onic France and maritime
Dwight Eisenhower in 1952,
and monarchical Britain. It
his isolationism vanished. A
was to avoid taking sides
dozen years later, the pendu-
that Washington urged his
lum swung back, as many lib-
countrymen not to "entangle
Familiar refrain. Isolationists march in 1941 in New York.
erals enraged by Democrat
our peace and prosperity in
Lyndon Johnson's Vietnam
the coils of European ambition." But even this was not a
War began a two-decade crusade against U.S. military
permanent admonition. Washington counseled neutrality
intervention almost everywhere. Unlike earlier isolationists
only for the 20 years he thought it would take the new
who opposed intervention because they feared an evil world
nation to grow big enough to defend itself.
would corrupt a virtuous America, many "no more Viet-
In practice, as historian Marcus Cunliffe wrote, Ameri-
nams" isolationists did so because they feared an evil Amer-
ca "has never found neutrality easy to maintain; in fact, it
ica would corrupt a virtuous world. But they had only
has proved almost impossible in the case of major Euro-
limited influence on Jimmy Carter and they failed to stop
pean conflicts." It was Waterloo and the ensuing peace
Ronald Reagan's Roosevelt-like defense buildup and inspi-
on the Continent-not isolationist views-that enabled
rational rhetoric that led to victory in the cold war.
Americans to avoid foreign wars. And Americans were
Pat Buchanan, with his strains of nativism and protec-
ambivalent enough about foreign involvement in the
tionism, is very much out of the earlier isolationist mold,
hemisphere throughout the rest of the 19th century that
eerily echoing Taft's arguments after their 40-year dorman-
they vigorously embraced the Monroe Doctrine that in-
cy, though Buchanan has a far smaller chance of ever
sisted Europeans not intervene in the hemisphere while
becoming president. Isolationists have prevailed from time
still relying on foreign trade and investment to fuel the
to time preventing U.S. support of Spanish democrats in
nation's economic growth.
the 1930s and Nicaraguan democrats in the 1980s. But for
Outward expansion. For most of the 19th century, America
the last century, isolationism has been more of a political
was a small country trying to use its geographic isolation to
rallying cry than a policy anyone could put into place.
protect its republican idea at home. For the first 40 years of
Americans have realized they are inevitably affected by
the 20th century, as citizens of a large nation in a world
what happens in the world, and they are willing to pay great
where democracy was on the march-sometimes forward
prices 400,000 deaths in the 1940s, $1.6 trillion in budget
and sometimes back-Americans debated whether they
deficits in the 1980s to intervene. However loud the noises
should intervene to extend the democratic idea abroad.
this year from what Dan Quayle calls the McGovern-Bu-
That was the stated purpose of American entry into World
chanan axis, isolationism will continue to be a mirage, a
War I, opposed mainly by Midwestern progressives like
source of fascination visible only in the distance.
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 3, 1992
29
TRADE
MEGAMARKET
The North American Free
Trade Agreement: a
UNEQUAL
$6 trillion market gamble
PARTNERS
for 363 million consumers
U.S.
Canada
Mexico
By BARBARA RUDOLPH
GDP
in billions of dollar. (1991)
$5,673
$501
$283
UPPORTERS SEE IT AS THE BEST
S
hope for escape from economic
Population
stagnation, a boost for trade
in millions(1991)
253
27
83
and investment, a boon for em-
ployment, a lift for standards of
Per capita/Income (1991)
$22,400
$21,980
living. Critics counter that it
$3,400
will strike a mortal blow at entire sectors
Hourly.compensation
of U.S., Canadian and Mexican industry,
In manufacturing
$14.77
$16.02
$1.80
idling tens of thousands of workers whose
jobs will move elsewhere, never to return.
Europeans and Asians fret that it may ac-
Literacy rate
99%
99%
87%
celerate a division of the world into giant
protectionist trading blocs lurking behind
Median.age
33
33.5
19
new walls of tariffs and bureaucratic
restrictions.
Infant mortality
The subject of these conflicting visions
per 1,000.
10
7
29
is an edifice of daring scope and complex-
ity, the North American Free Trade
Agreement. Negotiators for the U.S., Can-
than 4% in the U.S. (though dutiés on
will create both. Washington's conserva-
ada and Mexico, at work virtually nonstop
products like cocoa, for example, go as
tive Heritage Foundation estimates that
for the past 14 months, are in the final
high as 20% in Mexico; in Canada tequila
Mexico's growth rate, 3.6% last year, could
stages of preparing several hundred pages
is slapped with a 183% duty). More im-
of regulation upon regulation, written in
rise to between 6% and 9% if the treaty is
portant will be the steps that NAFTA takes
ratified.
droning legalese. Yet once approved by the
to diminish nontariff barriers, such as
three governments, the trade pact will
The U.S. economy will not get any-
dairy and cotton quotas in the U.S. and
where near as big a jolt-it is eight times as
mark a dramatic turn in the history of the
Canada, and various import licenses in
large as the other two combined-but
continent: at a stroke it will formalize a
Mexico. By rapidly widening the consum-
grand economic alliance, cement Mexico
should enjoy an explosion in exports to
er market, the pact aims to spur capital
into a unity it has always occupied geo-
Mexico. According to trade experts, those
investment across all three jurisdictions.
graphically, if not psychologically and cul-
could increase substantially from a pro-
This would be a striking change for Mexi-
turally, and reshape the way North Ameri-
jected $40 billion this year, ultimately cre-
co, which has long banned outside own-
can business is done.
ating more and bigger American pay-
ership of strategic sectors like farm and
checks. Says U.S. Trade Representative
The agreement will bind together
border lands and oil.
three major economies-two mature and
Carla Hills: "For every billion dollars
While sweeping, the treaty will not
wealthy, the third relatively poor but in
worth of exports, we gain 20,000 jobs."
cover everything: Mexico, in line with its
the throes of rapid and profound modern-
More important, she told a press confer-
constitution, has flatly ruled out foreign
ization. Building upon a similar agree-
ence last week, jobs in export industries
ownership in its energy industry, while
ment between the U.S. and Canada that
pay on average 17% more than employ-
Canada seeks to extend the blanket pro-
took effect in 1989, the expanded pact will
ment in the rest of the economy.
tection it won in its earlier agreement with
Labor leaders fear pain rather than
create a $6.4 trillion megamarket of 363
the U.S. for "cultural industries" such as
gain. They contend that tens of thousands
million consumers. But it will also chal-
television and publishing. But in a major
lenge the three governments with the
of workers will be laid off as U.S. compa-
concession, Mexico has agreed to allow
nies shift production south to take advan-
prospect of far-reaching social disloca-
American companies to establish stakes in
tage of industrial wages in Mexico that are
tions. What worries politicians in all
its banks and, under NAFTA, will include
roughly one-sixth of those in the U.S. and
three nations is, Will the trade-off be
insurance and securities firms, institu-
worth it?
Canada. The U.S. auto industry alone
tions previously barred to foreign
could lose thousands of positions. Mexican
At its most basic level, the treaty will
ownership.
roll back as many as 20,000 separate tar-
workers earning less than $20 a day are al-
Behind the numbing technicalities
iffs over the next 10 to 15 years. Current-
ready building hundreds of thousands of
that define any trade agreement, the bot-
ly those barriers average nearly 11% in
Ford Mercury Tracers and Buick Centu-
tom line of NAFTA concerns growth and
Mexico, around 5% in Canada and less
ries in Hermosillo and Ramos Arizpe and
jobs. Proponents argue that the agreement
shipping them north. Under the pact, the
TIME, AUGUST 10, 1992
43
Big Three's presence south of the border
idea of a free-trade treaty and believes it is
agreement will contravene the GATT
will surely grow in the next few years.
in the best interest of American labor, at
cord, if it is ever reached.
Yet many of those lost jobs would prob-
least over the long term. But he has criti-
ably vanish anyway, either going under to
And in any event, with or without
cized Bush Administration negotiators for
foreign competition or moving to Asia.
not doing enough to protect American
NAFTA, the three North American econo
And there is an advantage to keeping even
mies are becoming ever more entwined
workers. "The President made clear rep-
lost employment closer to home: manufac-
The U.S.-Canada trade relationship,
resentations on labor standards," Clinton
turers who move to Mexico are more likely
years the world's largest ($176 billion lag
said, "and there appears to be very little of
to retain their proximate U.S. suppliers
year), grew at a substantially higher rat
that in the agreement."
than are those who move to Asia. In fact,
after the 1989 deal. Even without NAFT
What will be the pact's effect on the
U.S.-Mexico trade has exploded to $43
the trade pact may persuade many U.S.
global economy? Most economists believe
and other companies to shift production
lion, more than double the total five year
that the world is drifting toward three ma-
ago.
from low-cost Asian plants to low-cost
jor regional trading blocs: North America,
The one certainty is that the tradi
Mexican plants, which could generate
Europe and, more slowly, Asia. The ques-
additional business for U.S. suppliers.
agreement will not please everyone. Like
tion, says Michael Aho, a fellow at the
all political accords, it will be packed with
Zenith Electronics, for example, the
Council on Foreign Relations in New York
compromises, limitations and second-bes
leading U.S. producer of television sets,
City, is whether these connections will
solutions. The best basis for assessing the
has already moved many of its operations
turn out to be "benign or belligerent."
accord is not whether it causes dislocation
from Taiwan to Mexico, and two months
Some opponents of NAFTA argue that
for any given group of enterprises or peor
ago closed its Asian assembly plant alto-
regional trade arrangements are inevita-
ple-international competition alread
gether. Without a Mexican base, Zenith
bly destructive. "The NAFTA pact is man-
does that-but whether it provides a better
guesses, it would have lost about 4,000
aged trade," says economist and Nobel
U.S. jobs from its Chicago circuit-board
foundation for the economic security and
laureate Milton Friedman. "Worldwide
future prosperity of 363 million people. The
plant and its Missouri molding and assem-
reduction of tariff barriers is much to be
benefits derived SO far from closer econom
bly factory. Another 2,000 to 5,000 suppli-
preferred to regional trade agreements."
ic relationships between the three coun.
er jobs would have vanished as well.
That may be so, but the so-called Uruguay
tries, and the benefits likely to ensue, make
Despite the stakes, NAFTA has not made
Round of global tariff reductions under
the proposed pact look like a gamble worth
much of a splash in the U.S. presidential
the General Agreement on Tariffs and
taking.
-With reporting by David Alkman
campaign
SO far. The main reason is
Trade is stalled. Proponents of the North
Washington and Laura López/Mexico City, with oth
that Bill Clinton generally supports the
American pact argue that nothing in the
er bureaus
How Trade Barriers Hurt U.S. Consumers
America's array of often contradictory trade restrictions are a major
households suffer more because they spend a greater share of the
obstacle to raising its standard of living and strengthening its com-
earnings on food and clothing, two of the most rigidly controlled
petitiveness, according to a study by economist James Bovard for the
ports. Despite efforts to eliminate quotas, more than 3,000 of the
Dallas-based National Center for Policy Analysis. Tariffs and quotas
restrict foreign apparel and textiles, adding $40 billion to U.S. clot
cost each U.S. family an average of about $800 a year. Low-income
ing prices.
HIDDEN COSTS
Children's Polyester
Canvas- Top
Orange
Sweaters
Sneakers
Juice
Retail price
$26.99
$29.99
$3.09 periticifical
Portion
$8.97.(33%)
$6.68 (22%)
$0.97
American appare makers two rprotected Hine New England's
Glen EAL income Brazit
Explanation:
for 200 years Yet they still can Leosinete
(Converse)
the
Pifis
espiriento U.Suptoibetr
Magainst low cost lotten) Rimit
WAS the
goods:
them hagoy
Peanuts
Ice
Edam and
Cream
Gouda Cheese
Quota
No more than
The U.S. restricts ice-
Imports are allowed from the
1.7 million lbs.
cream imports to less than
European Community, Argentina and Sweden
of peanuts can be
one-tenth of 1% of domestic consumption.
But the rest of the world can ship a total of
imported each year
only 2 lbs. of either cheese each year.
Increased cost
$1.46 (86%) per 16-oz. jar
$.78 (23%) per half gal.
$1.45 (25%) per lb
Explanation
Georgia peanut farmers demanded stringent
Price-support programs passed by Congress
Domestic cheese and milk producers have
Sources: Fair Trade Fraud
limits on imports in order to keep U.S. prices
are designed to boost profits of American
formed a powerful coalition to advocate low
by James Bovard;
far above world prices.
TIME estimates
dairy farmers.
quotas.
TIME Graphic by Joe Lertols
44
TIME, AUGUST 10, 1992
PAGE
1
(c) 1988 Chicago Tribune, September 2, 1988
BUTTON UP
Ever since George Bush uttered his contempt for "card-carrying" members of
the American Civil Liberties Union, Chicago's ACLU chapter has been inundated
with inquiries. Some of the callers are phoning to ask just what the heck George
meant, but others-die-hard ACLU fans-were looking for a way to stick it back to
George. And that's why lapel buttons are popping up around town, identifying
folks as "card-carrying" ACLU members. Beware the dreaded defenders of civil
rights.
QUAYLE FLIGHT
After Republican veep candidate Dan Quayle makes his stop in Chicago next
Thursday, he'll jet down to Springfield. He missed an appearance there at the
Illinois State Fair with George Bush after the GOPers national convention
when he was whisked off to Washington for candidates' training school.
NO BIZ LIKE SHOW BIZ
LEVEL 1 - 13 OF 44 STORIES
Copyright (c) 1988 Chicago Tribune Company;
Chicago Tribune
August 23, 1988, Tuesday, SPORTS FINAL EDITION
SECTION: EDITORIAL; Pg. 18; ZONE: C
THE GUT ISSUES OF THIS CAMPAIGN
LENGTH: 206 words
BODY:
On his first day of campaigning in Illinois as the official Republican
presidential nominee, George Bush went to the state fair in Springfield and
ate Greek souvlaki, Mexican nachos, Japanese tempura, Polish sausage, a Filipino
banana dish, Turkish burgers, Indian curry and a dill pickle.
He did it all in front of cameras and the anxious eyes of cooks and other
partisans from each of those ethnic groups.
Then he went to Oak Brook and ate shrimp, chicken and salads with a group of
wealthy admirers and potential fundraisers.
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(c) 1988 Chicago Tribune, August 23, 1988
Early the next morning, as promised by his press office, George Bush and his
several thousand new calories had to jog around Grant Park, again in front of
cameras and the curious.
Maybe the flaps over how he got into the National Guard and law school are
not the only reasons Dan Quayle waited until Monday evening to visit Chicago.
Training yourself to be convincing, controlled and just the right degree of cute
in response to constantly repeated questions intended to be embarrassing is not
easy, but the new Republican vice presidential nominee looks as if can master
that pretty quickly.
It takes a seasoned pro, though, to swallow what George Bush did here and
come up smiling.
TERMS: CAMPAIGN; CANDIDATE; IMAGE
The Associated Press, August 22, 1988
Democrats claimed it all showed their ticket has more stature.
Bush told a pool of reporters as he flew to Chicago on Air Force Two that
Quayle has "been thrown into a hornet's nest, but, you know, I've been there.
I've got to take the heat. I made the decision. The buck stops right here."
The vice president said he had "no hesitancy" about keeping Quayle on the
ticket despite the controversy over the Indiana senator using his wealthy
family's influence to join the National Guard during the Vietnam War.
After arriving at the Springfield, Ill. airport Sunday afternoon Bush hopped
out of his limousine and greeted men and women members of an Air National Guard
unit.
He said theirs was "a very honorable service" and that others "ought not try
to be making something wrong out of serving in that way."
A little later, Bush leaped off a tram on the grounds of the Illinois
State Fair and walked over to an Air National Guard exhibit, peering down the
barrel of an unloaded antitank missile launcher before playfully turning the
weapon on reporters.
TM
TM
TM
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The Associated Press, August 22, 1988
Craig Fuller, Bush's chief of staff, said he and other campaign officials are
"convinced that Dan Quayle did absolutely nothing improper" by seeking
membership in the National Guard during the Vietnam War.
A day earlier, Bush himself had called the issue a "tempest in a teapot."
Fuller, appearing on the CBS television show "Face The Nation," said a review
of Quayle's background after questions were raised disclosed nothing new.
He said taking Quayle off the ticket "was never considered."
Bush and Quayle appeared together in Ohio early Sunday before the vice
president went off to the Illinois State Fair and Quayle returned to
Washington for a couple of days of private time to chart the course of a
campaign born less than a week ago at the Republican National Convention in New
Orleans.
Democratic presidential nominee Michael Dukakis taking Sunday off at home in
Boston and his running mate, Sen. Lloyd Bentsen of Texas was relaxing at his
Virginia farm.
(c) 1988 Chicago Tribune, August 22, 1988
The vice president, on a tour of the Illinois State Fair, made light of
stories that Quayle had "talked his way" into law school and used family clout
to get a job in the Indiana attorney general's office.
While Quayle left the campaign Sunday to return to Washington, Bush seemed
determined to laugh off news articles describing Quayle's lackluster academic
and early work experience.
When asked if Quayle, who has acknowledged his poor college grades, was
smart enough to be president, Bush, who had been eating at a picnic table,
responded with a thumbs-up sign and said, "Like me."
Asked if he was a mediocre student, he said: "Yeah, in high school, then I
got to be brilliant in college.
"Phi Beta Kappa," said Bush, referring to the national honor society. He
then held both thumbs up and said, "Be sure to get that second part."
That remark came just before another exhibition of political theater, when
Bush visited the Illinois Air National Guard exhibit at the fairgrounds.
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(c) 1988 Chicago Tribune, August 22, 1988
Prompted by photographers, Bush gleefully pointed a TOW missile launcher at
the bank of reporters and camera crew.
The crowd cheered the vice president, despite the irony that the sale of TOW
missiles to Iran in a failed plan to swap arms for American hostages is one of
the issues Democrats are using against the Reagan-Bush administration.
Taking aim at the press was also a benign illustration of the frustration
that many Bush supporters and staff members feel about the intense examination
Quayle is receiving and how that has distracted from Bush's eagerness to bask in
post-convention enthusiasm as he visited the largest Midwestern state.
Bush has been trying to make his case before large rallies and in private
fundraisers, such as the one he attended Sunday night at the Oak Brook home of
lawyer Thomas Fawell.
But since Bush selected Quayle last Tuesday, the senator's ability to enlist
in the Indiana National Guard in 1969 during the Vietnam War has prompted
repeated questions about the caliber of the Republican vice presidential nominee
and the judgment of the presidential nominee.
(c) 1988 Chicago Tribune, August 22, 1988
Bush, who shed his coat and tie to walk and ride on a tractor-pulled tram,
seemed to delight in the downhome kitsch of the state fair, where he sat at a
picnic table and nibbled from plates of ethnic food.
Apparently unwilling to offend any nationality in his run for the
presidency, Bush ate Greek souvlaki, Mexican nachos, Japanese tempura, Polish
sausage and dill pickle, a Filipino banana dish, Turkish burgers and Indian
curry.
His wife, Barbara, took only delicate bites.
AS he campaigned in Cleveland earlier in the day, Bush dismissed suggestions
that Quayle had left a day earlier than expected in order to lower his profile.
"He's got to get his act together, get the schedule going," Bush said at the
Cleveland Airport. "This (nomination) hit him out of the clear blue sky and he
and (campaign chairman) Jim Baker and a lot of our people are out there planning
the campaign."
Bush, who has been lauded and scolded for his loyalty to President Reagan
over the last eight years, also showed loyalty to his running mate of the last
five days. "He's going to campaign, and he'll do very, very well," said the
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(c) 1988 Chicago Tribune, August 22, 1988
vice president.
Commenting on Quayle's record, Bush said, "Let everybody in that generation
turn and cast the first stone, and see where they were at then
The
National Guard is honorable service. Some went to Canada
Do we condemn an
entire generation? I don't think 50."
A test of how Bush's generation will judge that may come as early as Monday
morning, when Bush is scheduled to speak to the convention of the American
Veterans of Foreign Wars and afterwards visit a veterans hospital.
Quayle is not expected to resume his own campaigning until Wednesday.
In his speech to a Republican campaign picnic at the fairgrounds, Bush
declared: "The last few days for me and for Dan Quayle have been tremendously
rewarding. The crowds have been big, and even these polls that had me kicked and
kicked hard seem to be going in the right direction."
After the speech, Gov. James Thompson was also a booster, claiming, "This is
the first campaign event in 13 years on the trail that I've ever seen not a
single negative comment, not a single boo."
(c) 1988 Los Angeles Times, August 22, 1988
The day originally was meant to showcase the Bush and Quayle families at
the Illinois State Fair's "Family Day." But Quayle's appearance was abruptly
canceled and he flew back to Washington with Bush campaign officials, leaving
the vice president to explain his departure and respond to new questions raised
about his academic background.
Bush, speaking to reporters at the airport here Sunday afternoon, said Quayle
left for Washington to get a jump on campaign preparations and to make personal
arrangements necessitated by his surprise selection as Bush's running mate.
"He's got to get his act together and get the schedule going," said Bush.
"This hit him out of the clear blue sky."
Later, aboard Air Force Two en route to Chicago, Bush contrasted Quayle's
actions with those who fled to Canada rather than risk going to war.
"Let everybody in that generation turn and cast the first stone and see where
they were
then," he said. "The National Guard is honorable service. Some
went to Canada
Do we condemn an entire generation? I don't think so."
Campaign chairman James A. Baker III, California-based political consultant
Stuart K. Spencer -- who will organize the Quayle campaign -- and other Bush
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X
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Cemes in and sculptures a
cow out of butter sits in an
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WASHINGTON
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THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
August 13, 1992
ILLINOIS STATE FAIR
DATE:
Sunday, August 23, 1992
LOCATION: Illinois State Fairgrounds
Springfield, Illinois
TIME:
12:30 p.m.
FROM:
RONALD C. KAUFMAN
I. PURPOSE
To address the citizens of Illinois in attendance at the
Illinois State Fair.
II. BACKGROUND
The President attended this same State Fair during the
1988 presidential campaign.
The Illinois State Fair, which runs from August 14-23, is
one of the largest State Fairs in the nation with more
than one million people visiting annually. In attendance at
this Fair will be farmers, livestock breeders, grain
dealers and average citizens from across the state.
In addition, there will be several award winning livestock
displays along with conservation demonstrations conducted by
local state agencies.
More than 15,000 people are expected to be in attendance
during the President's visit to the Fairgrounds.
Bill Clinton and Al Gore will have visited the Fair on
Thursday, August 20 whereupon they visited to "Ethnic
Village." This is a particular portion of the Fair the
President toured in 1988.
III. PARTICIPANTS
The President
Governor Edgar
IV. SEQUENCE OF EVENTS
See Advance Office for details.
PAGE TWO
V.
PRESS PLAN
Open.
VI. REMARKS
Remarks provided by the Office of Speechwriting.
TEL:
Aug 10'92 12:18 No. .009 P.17
August 10, 1992
Grossman
Memorandum to: Gary Foster
From:
Pat Mizell
Re:
President's Visit to Springfield, Illinois, August 23, 1992
The President would travel to Springfield, Illinois on August 23, 1992, to attend the
Illinois State Fair.
PROPOSED EVENT SCENARIO:
The President would arrive at the Springfield, Illinois airport and travel to the
Illinois State Fairgrounds via motorcade. The President would proceed via motorcade
directly to the Illinois Farm Exposition on the fairgrounds.
The Illinois Farm Exposition is a display on a parking lot next to the race track.
On the parking lot, farm implements are displayed. On August 23, 1992, the farm
exposition will be the major event scheduled for that day, and will have the most people
present.
I propose that upon arrival at the Illinois Farm Exposition the President view the
grand champion animals with the children who raised them. The animals will have already
been awarded their blue ribbons earlier in the week, but many of the children would be
happy to return with their animals to show the President. The animals could be lined in
a semicircle on the parking lot. The Illinois Director of Agriculture is Becky Doyle, and
could serve as a guide for the President at the Illinois Farm Expo.
After viewing the animals, the President could walk to another area of the Illinois
Farm Expo and participate in some form of informal question and answer with Illinois
farmers or Illinois farming families. The first scenario would be for the President to walk
over to a designated area where ten to twenty farmers would be informally gathered
around a farm implement or machinery, and the President could engage in a very informal
chat with the small groups. Another scenario would entail having the President walk over
to a larger group of fifty to sixty farmers and their families in a seated and standing
informal environment on the parking lot, and engage in a mini "ask George Bush."
Another scenario would be for the President to walk over and participate in a full blown
"ask George Bush" with two to three hundred farmers and their families seated in the
parking lot. I recommend the first setting with the small group of farmers. The first
AUG 10 '92 8:33 FROM VE LLP 31 HOUSTON
PAGE.003
Withdrawal/Redaction Sheet
(George Bush Library)
Document No.
Subject/Title of Document
Date
Restriction
Class.
and Type
02. Memo
Re: POTUS trip to Illinois State Fair; personal information
08/10/92
P-6, (b)(6)
redacted. (1 pp.)
Collection:
Record Group:
Bush Presidential Records
Office:
Speechwriting, White House Office of
Series:
Speech File, Backup
Subseries:
WHORM Cat.:
File Location:
Illinois State Fair 8/23/92
Date Closed:
12/3/2004
OA/ID Number:
07578
FOIA/SYS Case #:
Re-review Case #:
2004-2265-S
P-2/P-5 Review Case #:
MR Case #:
Appeal Case #:
MR Disposition:
Appeal Disposition:
Disposition Date:
Disposition Date:
RESTRICTION CODES
Presidential Records Act - [44 U.S.C. 2204(a)]
Freedom of Information Act - [5 U.S.C. 552(b)]
P-1 National Security Classified Information [(a)(1) of the PRA]
(b)(1) National security classified information [(b)(1) of the FOIA]
P-2 Relating to the appointment to Federal office [(a)(2) of the PRA]
(b)(2) Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of an
P-3 Release would violate a Federal statute [(a)(3) of the PRA]
agency [(b)(2) of the FOIA]
P-4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or
(b)(3) Release would violate a Federal statute [(b)(3) of the FOIA]
financial information [(a)(4) of the PRA]
(b)(4) Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial
P-5 Release would disclose confidential advise between the President
information [(b)(4) of the FOIA]
and his advisors, or between such advisors [a)(5) of the PRA]
(b)(6) Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of
P-6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of
personal privacy [(b)(6) of the FOIA]
personal privacy [(a)(6) of the PRA]
(b)(7) Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement
purposes [(b)(7) of the FOIA]
C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed of
(b)(8) Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of
gift.
financial institutions [(b)(8) of the FOIA]
(b)(9) Release would disclose geological or geophysical information
TEL:
Aug 10'92 12:18 No.009 P.18
5749735
scenario would provide the best setting for ia very informal one-on-one interaction with
average farmers, and would show the President's concern for the farmers and their
industry.
After participating in the farm exposition, the President would proceed by
motorcade to the coliseum on the Illinois State Fairgrounds. The coliseum seats
approximately 3,000 people in the seats, and another 1,000 people could be standing or
seated on the floor of the coliseum. The President would be introduced on stage and
make remarks. Following a presentation, the President would depart the dias and proceed
to the motorcade.
The motorcade would then proceed to the Department of Agriculture Building,
where the President would participate in a campaign photo event. If the President were
inclined to participate in an impromptu event, the most convenient time would be between
the rally and the campaign event.
An alternative site for the viewing of the animals and the meeting with the farmers
would be the Junior Livestock Building, which would provide an indoor setting in case of
rain. The farm exposition is a better site because there is more going on; most of the
animals that would have been present in the Junior Livestock Building will have been
moved out of the building at the time of this event.
BACKGROUND:
P-6,
Lb) (b)(6)
Other proposed event sites include an Ethanol Exhibit, where various cars and
boats are displayed which run on ethanol. The locals are really pushing this as a proposed
event. At the very least, Andy Foster requested that something regarding ethanol be
mentioned in the President's remark during the coliseum period.
If the President should desire to eat lunch at the state fair, there is an Ethnic
Center where various ethnic foods are served, and the President could go to the food hall
and eat. The President did this in 1988.
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