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Originally Processed With FOIA(s): FOIA Number: S S FOIA MARKER This is not a textual record. This is used as an administrative marker by the George Bush Presidential Library Staff. Record Group/Collection: George H.W. Bush Presidential Records Collection/Office of Origin: Speechwriting, White House Office of Series: Speech File Backup Files Subseries: Chron File, 1989-1993 OA/ID Number: 13831 Folder ID Number: 13831-007 Folder Title: Agenda for American Renewal--Detroit Economic Club 9/10/92 [OA 7580] [5] Stack: Row: Section: Shelf: Position: G 26 22 7 7 Withdrawal/Redaction Sheet (George Bush Library) Document No. Subject/Title of Document Date Restriction Class. and Type 01. Memo J. D. Foster to Jennifer Grossman, re: Fact Checking and One 10/07/92 P-5 Liners. (2 pp.) Collection: Record Group: Bush Presidential Records Open on Expiration of PRA Office: Speechwriting, White House Office of (Document Follows) Series: Speech File, Backup By SN (NLGB) on 4/5/2005 Subseries: WHORM Cat.: File Location: Agenda for American Renewal Detroit Economic Club 9/10/92 [5] Date Closed: 12/6/2004 OA/ID Number: 07580 FOIA/SYS Case #: Re-review Case #: 2004-2265-S P-2/P-5 Review Case #: MR Case #: Appeal Case #: MR Disposition: Appeal Disposition: Disposition Date: Disposition Date: RESTRICTION CODES Presidential Records Act - [44 U.S.C. 2204(a)] Freedom of Information Act - [5 U.S.C. 552(b)] P-1 National Security Classified Information [(a)(1) of the PRA] (b)(1) National security classified information [(b)(1) of the FOIA] P-2 Relating to the appointment to Federal office [(a)(2) of the PRA] (b)(2) Release would disclose internal personnel rules and practices of an P-3 Release would violate a Federal statute [(a)(3) of the PRA] agency [(b)(2) of the FOIA] P-4 Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential commercial or (b)(3) Release would violate a Federal statute [(b)(3) of the FOIA] financial information [(a)(4) of the PRA] (b)(4) Release would disclose trade secrets or confidential or financial P-5 Release would disclose confidential advise between the President information [(b)(4) of the FOIA] and his advisors, or between such advisors [a)(5) of the PRA] (b)(6) Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of P-6 Release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of personal privacy [(b)(6) of the FOIA] personal privacy [(a)(6) of the PRA] (b)(7) Release would disclose information compiled for law enforcement purposes [(b)(7) of the FOIA] C. Closed in accordance with restrictions contained in donor's deed of (b)(8) Release would disclose information concerning the regulation of gift. financial institutions [(b)(8) of the FOIA] (b)(9) Release would disclose geological or geophysical information October 7, 1992 MEMORANDUM TO JENNIFER GROSSMAN FROM: J.D. FOSTER JOH RE: Fact Checking and One Liners The attached page provides the sources and some background information on the facts you needed to be traced. In addition, if you would allow an economist to make a couple suggestions about the possible Clinton statements that appear to create the most difficulty. First, what to say when Clinton repeats "Read My Lips". There are two approaches, one rhetorical, the other substantive, and both requiring the President to go on the offensive. The rhetorical approach is 1) to attack Clinton on some issue where he has flip- flopped -- possibly on NAFTA, or even on his exhale- less drug use. 2) then quickly admit and pass over the fact that the President had been forced to break the vow, but that he won't make that mistake again -- fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me! The second, substantive approach is 1) admit that the President had broken the vow, but he did it because of his concern over the budget deficit. Because of his concern over the deficit and a Democratic Congress that refused to address the deficit without tax increases, he felt at the time there was no alternative but to agree to some tax increases to get some budget restraint 2) This is one area, at least, in which the President and Ross Perot agree, that the budget deficit must be reigned in. Governor Clinton's plan makes it plain as day that he doesn't care about the deficit because, even with well over $150 billion in new taxes, his plan would increase the deficit by $xx billion over five years. 2 I believe the second approach is by far the stronger because it ends up on the offensive and makes some important points. The second issue is the Clinton claim that the economy's performance has been the worst since Hoover. Answer: There you go again, trying to tear down the American economy. It's true we haven't grown as fast as we should. But: - it's also true that we've had five consecutive quarters of positive growth, and that we're growing faster than any other major industrialized country. - it's also true that we are now the number one exporting superpower in the world. And with the North American Free Trade Agreement in place, (and I thank you, Governor Clinton, for finally endorsing that Agreement), our exports will continue to grow strong for years to come and our trade deficit will continue to decline. - it's also true that we have the lowest inflation and the lowest interest rates in a generation. - and, finally, we are completing the adjustments in our economy that have kept our growth down, such as the defense downsizing and the recovery of our financial sector. Combined with the other things I mentioned-- strong export growth, low inflation and low interest rates--I believe our economy is poised for a long period of sustained, solid growth. attachment 320 ECONOMY POTUS: (1) Misery index -- the sum of inflation and unemployment -- is [10.8%], down from 19.6 percent in 1980. 10.6 Source: [Detroit, Mi.; J.D. Foster, Chief Economist, CEA X 5084.] (2) Inflation has fallen to roughly [3] %; Source: [Detroit, Mi.; J.D. Foster, Chief Economist, CEA X 5084.] (3) Interest rates are at a [20] year low; Source: [Detroit, Mi.; J.D. Foster, Chief Economist, CEA X 5084.] (4) Purchasing power of Americans gives us highest standard of living in world. Source: [Detroit, Mi. ] (5) We enjoy highest home ownership rate of all major industrialized countries. Source: [Detroit, Mi.;* ] (6) Over past 12 years we have almost doubled size of our economy. (81)3030 (92) 5,900 Source: [Detroit, Mi.;* ] (7) With 5% of world's population, we produce 25% of world's total output -- and 37% of its high-tech products. 36 Source: [Detroit, Mi.*] (8) To nearly double the size of our economy to $10 trillion economy by early years of next century. Source: [Detroit, Mi on How could 4here be any hand copy? (9) Create enterprise zones in inner cities and rural areas; make R&D tax credit permanent; cut the tax on capital gains and index for inflation; strengthen small business by cutting taxes, making credit available, lifting government regulations; Source: [Detroit, Mi.*] 3 The attached sheets are numbered to correspond to the original fact sheet. 1) The misery index has actually dropped since this was done. It is now at 10.6% (3.1% inflation plus 7.5% unemployment) 2) Inflation now at 3.1%. 3) The two sheets give current and historical interest rates. They show that the fact sheet understates the relative position of interest rates in many cases. 4) The best measure of standard of living is GDP per capita. The chart shows the U.S. way out in front. 5) No luck yet. 6) Economy has grown from $3 trillion in 1981 to $5.9 trillion in 1992, second quarter. 7) The sheets from the Handbook of Economic Statistics verify the 5% and 25% (see pie charts or raw data). The sheets from Science and Engineering Indicators shows 1990 estimate of U.S. high-tech production at 36%, not 37% as in the sheet. 09/04/92 16:57 202 401 2837 DEPT. OF ED OUS +++ WHITE HOUSE/OEDP 002 TOTAL EDUCATION EXPENDITURES FROM ALL SOURCES, 1988-89 AND 1992-93 IN CURRENT AND CONSTANT DOLLARS WITH CHANGE AND PERCENTAGE CHANGE (dollars in billions) SCHOOL SCHOOL YEAR YEAR PERCENT 1988-89 1992-93 CHANGE CHANGE Total funds: Current dollars $345.6 $445.4 +$99.8 +28.9% Constant 1992 dollars 406.4 445.4 +39.0 +9.6% Federal funds: Current dollars $28.8 $36.7 +$7.9 +27.4% Constant 1992 dollars 33.9 36.7 +2.8 +8.3% Total State and local funds: Current dollars $222.4 $287.6 +$65.2 +29.3% Constant 1992 dollars 261.5 287.6 +26.1 +10.0% State funds: Current dollars $130.2 $164.0 +$33.8 +26.0% constant 1992 dollars 153.1 164.0 +10.9 +7.1% Local funds: Current dollars $92.9 $123.5 +$30.6 +32.9% Constant 1992 dollars 109.3 123.5 +14.2 +13.0% 1 Other funds: Current dollars $94.4 $121.1 +$26.7 +28.3% Constant 1992 dollars 111.0 121.1 +10.1 +9.1% 9/4/92 09/04/92 16:57 202 401 2837 DEPT. OF ED OUS +++ WHITE HOUSE/OEDP 5. 003 2 TOTAL EDUCATION EXPENDITURES FROM ALL SOURCES, 1981-82 AND 1992-93 IN CURRENT AND CONSTANT DOLLARS WITH CHANGE AND PERCENTAGE CHANGE (dollars in billions) SCHOOL SCHOOL YEAR YEAR PERCENT 1981-82 1992-93 CHANGE CHANGE Total funds: Current dollars $197.8 $445.4 +$247.6 +125.2% constant 1992 dollars 299.5 445.4 +145.9 +48.7% Federal funds: Current dollars $18.5 $36.7 +$18.2 +98.4% Constant 1992 dollars 28.0 36.7 +8.7 +31.1% Total State and local funds: +$159.4 +124.3% Current dollars $128.2 $287.6 Constant 1992 dollars 194.1 287.6 +93.5 +48.2% State funds: Current dollars $76.3 $164.0 +$118.3 +155.0% Constant 1992 dollars 115.5 164.0 +48.5 +42.0% Local funds: Current dollars $51.9 $123.5 +$71.6 +138.0% Constant 1992 dollars 78.6 123.5 +44.9 +57.1% 1 Other funds: Current dollars $51.1 $121.1 +$70.0 +137.0% Constant 1992 dollars 77.4 121.1 +43.7 +56.5% 9/4/92 09/04/92 16:58 202 401 2837 DEPT. OF ED OUS +++ WHITE HOUSE/OEDP 004 3 TOTAL EDUCATION EXPENDITURES FROM ALL SOURCES, 1969-70 AND 1980-81 IN CURRENT AND CONSTANT DOLLARS WITH CHANGE AND PERCENTAGE CHANGE (dollars in billions) SCHOOL SCHOOL YEAR YEAR PERCENT 1969-70 1980-81 CHANGE CHANGE Total funds: Current dollars $68.5 $182.8 +$114.3 +166.9% Constant 1992 dollars 258.4 300.7 +42.3 +16.4% Federal funds: current dollars $7.6 $20.0 +$12.4 +163.2% Constant 1992 dollars 28.7 32.9 +4.2 +14.6% Total State and local funds: Current dollars $44.8 $117.9 +$73.1 +163.2% Constant 1992 dollars 169.0 193.9 +24.9 +14.7% State funds: Current dollars $22.3 $70.8 +$48.5 +174.9% Constant 1992 dollars 84.1 116.5 +32.4 +38.5% Local funds: Current dollars $22.5 $47.0 +$24.5 +108.9% Constant 1992 dollars 84.9 77.3 -7.6 -9.0% Other funds: Current dollars $16.1 $44.9 +$28.8 +178.9% constant 1992 dollars 60.7 73.9 +13.2 +21.7% 1 Other spending includes all tuition and fees paid to postsecondary institutions, including Federal student financial aid; research funds from private sources; grants having components from many sources that cannot be separated; endowment funds; teaching hospital revenue not identified as Federal, State, or local; and institutional funds, e.g., donations from private sources. NOTE: CPI deflators used to determine constant 1992 dollars. SOURCE: National Center for Education Statistics. 9/4/92 04/92 10:12 202 401 2837 DEPT. OF ED OUS +++ WHITE HOUSE/OEDP 4 003/005 EDUCATION FUNDING (Budget authority in thousands) Department of Education Total Increase from 1968 1968 1980 Amount Percent Current dollars $3,918,867 $14,090,222 +$10,171,355 +260% Constant 1980 dollars 8,865,212 14,090,222 +5,225,010 +59% Increase from 1981 1981 1993 Amount Percent Current dollars 14,794,379 32,338,772 +17,544,393 +186% Constant 1993 dollars 23,732,521 32,338,772 +8,606,251 +36% Increase from 1989 1989 1993 Amount Percent Current dollars 22,956,417 32,338,772 +9,382,355 +41% Constant 1993 dollars 26,458,459 32,338,772 +5,880,313 +22% Chapter 1 ESEA Increase from 1968 1968 1980 Amount Percent Current dollars $1,100,288 $3,215,343 +$2,115,005 +192% Constant 1980 dollars 2,489,058 3,215,343 +726,285 +29% Increase from 1981 1981 1993 Amount Percent Current dollars 3,104,317 6,946,332 +3,842,015 +124% Constant 1993 dollars 4,979,815 6,946,332 +1,966,517 +39% Increase from 1989 1989 1993 Amount Percent Current dollars 4,570,246 6,946,332 +2,376,086 +52% Constant 1993 dollars 5,267,445 6,946,332 +1,678,887 +32% NOTE. Gross Domestic Product deflators used to determine constant dollars. 9/3/92 SEP-02-1992 19:21 FROM TO 94567739 P.02 UNITED STATES MASSACHUSETTS DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION NEWS STATES D FOR RELEASE September 2, 1992 Contact: Melinda Kitchell (202) 401-1008 1992 BACK TO SCHOOL FORECAST The U.S. Education Department today released its 1992 back- to-school forecast reporting another year of record spending and employment in education at all levels. "These numbers remind us that money alone is not the answer to better schools," said Education Secretary Lamar Alexander. "During the last 10 years, spending on education has more than doubled -- even after inflation it's still up 40 percent -- while enrollment is only slightly up and results are disappointing. "We should spend our money on changing our schools: breaking the mold, higher standards, better tests, getting government off the backs of teachers, and giving families more choices of all schools." According to the department: o Total education spending in the U.S. is expected to reach $445 billion this year, up.5 percent over 1991; after adjusting for inflation, spending is up 40 percent over the last decade; An estimated 70 million Americans, or one in four, will be directly involved in education this year as a student, teacher, administrator, or as support staff. Schools of all types will employ 7.7 million; A record number of college students -- 14.3 million -- will enroll in the nation's colleges and universities this fall. More students will earn bachelor's, master's and doctorate degrees than ever before. -MORE- SEP-02-1992 19:22 FROM TO 94567739 P.03 -2- EXPENDITURES RISE Spending for public elementary, secondary and higher education should reach $363 billion, and $82 billion will be spent by private schools and colleges. The $445 billion total for the 1992-93 school year is a 5 percent increase over 1991. Educational institutions' expenditures in 1991-92 amounted to about 7.5 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP), and a similar proportion is expected in 1992-93. K-12 SPENDING SEES LARGE INCREASE Elementary and secondary schools are expected to spend about $274 billion in 1992-93, up 5 percent from $261 billion in 1991- 92 (see table 6 and chart 3). After adjusting for inflation, spending is up 40 percent in the ten years since 1982-83. Per pupil spending for public elementary and secondary schools will reach a record high: $6,300 in 1992-93, up $200 from $6,100 in 1991-92 (table 5). Per pupil spending includes current expenditures, capital outlays, and interest payments on school debt. After allowing for inflation, per pupil spending has grown 35 percent between 1982-83 and 1992-93. In the last year, the average public school teacher's salary rose by four percent (see table 5). A similar increase is expected this year, which would bring the average annual salary to about $35,800 in 1992-93, compared with last year's average of $34,413. -MORE- SEP-02-1992 19:22 FROM TO 94567739 P.04 -3- ENROLLMENT RISES, NEW TREND IN HIGH SCHOOLS Elementary and secondary school enrollment in 1992 will total 47.6 million, and is expected to rise through the end of : the decade, because of a generally upward trend in U.S. births evident since 1977. (In fact, although enrollment has risen slightly over the last decade, it is significantly less than it was 20 years ago. In school year 1971-72, total enrollment was at an all-time high of 51.3 million.) Public and private elementary and secondary schools 1992 enrollment (see table 2 and chart 1) will continue an upward trend that began in 1985. Elementary school enrollment (grades K-8) should climb 500,000, up from 34.4 million last year to 34.9 million this year. Enrollment in the nation's secondary schools (grades 9-12) should rise slightly this year, up from 12.6 million last year to 12.7 million this year. The rising number of elementary school students, evident through the late 1980s, has shown up in increased secondary school enrollment. Enrollment increases in grades 9 through 12 are expected for at least 10 more years. REGIONAL ENROLLMENT INCREASES CENTERED IN WEST AND SOUTH Regionally, the largest enrollment increases are found in the West, followed by the South, with only slight increases in the Northeast and Midwest. States with the largest percentage enrollment increases in the last five years are Nevada, Arizona, Florida, California, New Hampshire, Washington, Maryland, and Delaware. -MORE- SEP-02-1992 19:23 FROM TO 94567739 P.05 -4- NUMBER OF HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES REMAINS STEADY About 2.5 million students are expected to graduate from public and private high schools this year, even with 1991 graduation numbers (see table 7). Until the current school year, the number of high school graduates had been on a generally downward trend (in the peak year of 1977, nearly 3.2 million students graduated). However, a significant increase in the number of persons graduating from high school is anticipated during the mid-1990s because of the increase in high school enrollment. About three-fourths of youth today earn a regular high school diploma by age 19. [NOTE: Others earn a diploma at older ages or receive a high school equivalency certificate. Data from the Bureau of the Census indicate that about 86 percent of 25- to 29-year-olds have completed high school or its equivalent.] The high school completion rate (including those who complete an equivalency degree) for 19- and 20-year-old whites was 87 percent in 1990, up one percentage point since 1973. During the same time period, the gap between white and black students narrowed, as blacks reached a completion rate of almost 78 percent in 1990, an increase of about ten percentage points. The completion rate for Hispanic students is 60 percent. SCHOOLS EMPLOY NEARLY 7.7 MILLION About 3.7 million persons will be employed as elementary and secondary school teachers and as faculty in colleges and -MORE- SEP-02-1992 19:23 FROM TO 94567739 P.06 -5- universities. Other administrative, professional, and support staff of educational institutions will add another 4 million. About 2.8 million elementary and secondary school teachers will teach in U.S. classrooms this fall (see chart 2), up slightly from the number employed in 1991. The number of senior instructional staff members (faculty with the rank of instructor or above) at the college level is expected to be about 868,000, slightly higher than 1991 (Table 4). COLLEGE ENROLLMENT AT AN ALL-TIME HIGH The number of college students enrolled in public and private colleges and universities this fall is expected to reach an all-time high of 14.3 million students. In October 1991, a record high proportion -- 62 percent -- of new high school graduates attended college. College enrollments have reached new peaks, even though the population of 18- to 24-year-olds has decreased in recent years. Higher attendance rates for 18- to 24-year-olds, older persons and women largely account for the increase. Only modest increases in college enrollment are anticipated through the mid-1990s, since the traditional college-age population will continue to decline for several more years. EARNED DEGREES REACH NEW PEAK The number of degrees earned at colleges and universities during 1992-93 are expected to reach all-time highs in all categories except first professional degrees. Estimates are: -MORE- SEP-02-1992 19:23 FROM TO 94567739 P.07 -6- associate degrees, 490,000; bachelor's degrees, 1,131,000; master's degrees, 345,000; and doctorates, 41,000. First professional degrees (medicine, theology, and law), will match the 1985 high of 75,000. HIGHER EDUCATION SPENDING RISES Colleges and universities will spend about $172 billion in 1992-93 (see table 6 and chart 3), up 5 percent in the past year. Since 1982-83, spending by colleges and universities is up 36 percent, after adjusting for inflation. The forecast for the average expenditure per full-time (equivalent) college student for 1992-93 is $16,600, up 25 percent since 1982-83. The figures cover all campus outlays, including salaries, construction and maintenance costs, and operation of research facilities. On average, tuition covers approximately 25 percent of the total per-pupil expenditure. ### NOTE TO EDITORS: Attached are tables prepared by the National Center for Education Statistics. More detailed education statistics may be obtained from the Digest of Education Statistics, Projections of Education Statistics, and The Condition of Education, which are prepared by the National Center for Education Statistics, U.S. Department of Education. These publications may be ordered from the U.S. Government Printing Office (GPO) using the stock number and prices below. The Condition of Education, 1992 provides statistical indicators, charts, and text which describe important trends in American education and is available from the GPO (SN 065-000-00505-1; $25.00 a copy). Also available from the GPO are the Digest of Education Statistics, 1991, a detailed compendium of education data, (SN 065-000-00468-2; $25.00) i and Projections of Education Statistics to 2002, a compilation of projections of key education statistics, (SN 065-000-00473-9; $12.00). SEP-02-1992 19:24 FROM TO 94567739 P.08 Table 1. - - Estimated number of participants in elementary and secondary education and in higher education: Fall 1992 [In millions] All levels Elementary and secondary schools Institutions (elementary, of higher Participants secondary, education and higher Total Public Private education) Total 69.6 52.7 46.8 5.9 16.9 Enrollment¹ 61.9 47.6 42.3 5.4 14.3 Teachers and faculty 3.7 2.8 2.4 0.4 2 0.9 Other professional, administrative, and support staff 4.1 2.3 2.1 0.2 1.7 I Includes enrollments in local public school systems and in most private schools (religiously affiliated and nonsectarian). Excludes subcollegiate departments of institutions of higher education, residential schools for exceptional children, and Federal schools. Elementary and secondary includes most kindergarten and some nursery school enrollment. Excludes preprimary enrollment in schools that do not offer first grade or above. Higher education comprises full-time and part-time students enrolled in degree-credit and nondegree- 2 credit programs in universities, other 4-year colleges, and 2-year colleges. Includes full-time and part-time faculty with the rank of instructor or above. NOTE.--The enrollment figures include all students in elementary and secondary schools and colleges and universities. However, the data for teachers and other staff in public and private elementary and secondary schools are reported in terms of full-time equivalents. The staff data for institutions of higher education include all full-time and part-time professional, administrative, and support personnel. Because of rounding, details may not add to totals. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, unpublished projections and estimates. (This table was prepared August 1992.) SEP-02-1992 19:24 FROM TO 94567739 P.09 Table 2. - - Enrollment in educational institutions, by level of instruction, and by type of control: Fall 1982 to fall 1992 [In thousands] Level of instruction and Fall Fall Fall Fall Fall type of control 1982 1987 1990¹ 1991 2 1992² All levels 57,591 58,254 60,160 61,189 61,888 Public 49,262 49,981 51,964 53,013 53,527 Private 8,330 8,273 8,196 8,176 8,362 Elementary and secondary schools³ 45,166 45,488 46,450 47,032 47,601 Public 39,566 40,008 41,224 41,839 42,250 Private 2 5,600 5,479 5,226 5,193 5,351 Kindergarten through grade 84 31,361 32,165 33,978 34,422 34,855 Public 27,161 27,933 29,888 30,353 30,663 Private 2 4,200 4,232 4,090 4,069 4,192 Grades 9 through 12 13,805 13,323 12,472 12,610 12,746 Public 12,405 12,076 11,336 11,486 11,587 Private 2 1,400 1,247 1,136 1,124 1,159 Higher education⁵ 12,426 12,767 13,710 14,157 14,287 Public 9,696 9,973 10,741 11,174 11,277 Private 2,730 2,793 2,970 Preliminary data. 2,983 3,011 ²Estimated. ³Includes enrollments in local public school systems and in most private schools (religiously affiliated and nonsectarian). Excludes subcollegiate departments of institutions of higher education, residential schools for exceptional children, and Federal schools. 3Includes most kindergarten and some nursery school enrollment. Excludes preprimary enrollment in schools that do not offer first grade. This undercount of preprimary enrollment is particularly significant for private schools. According to data collected by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, public and private nursery school and kindergarten 1991. enrollment of 3- to 5-year-olds grew from 4.9 million in October 1981 to 63 million in October ⁵Includes full-time and part-time students enrolled in degree-credit and nondegree-credit programs in institutions. universities, other 4-year colleges, and 2-year colleges. Excludes students in noncollegiate postsecondary NOTE.-Because of rounding, details may not add to totals. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics, 1992.) 1992 (forthcoming): and Projections of Education Statistics to 2002. (This table was prepared August SEP-02-1992 19:25 FROM TO 94567739 P.10 Table 3. - - Enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by region and State: Fall 1982 to fall 1992 [In thousands] Region and state Fall Fall Fall Fall Fall 1982 1987 1990 1991 1992² United States 39.568 40,010 41,224 41,839 42,250 Northeast 7,674 7,252 7.282 7,370 7,461 Connecticut 486 465 4G9 47S 488 Maine 212 212 215 y 217 220 Massachusetts 909 825 834 842 863 2 New Hampshire 160 166 173 174 189 New Jersey 1,093 1,090 3 1,173 1,110 1,126 New York 2,719 2,594 2,598 2,645 2,633 Pennsylvania 1,784 1,669 1,668 1,667 1,701 135 139 3 Rhode Island 140 141 142 Vermont 91 93 96 97 99 Midwest 10,139 9,870 9,937 10,038 10,055 Illinois 1.880 1,S11 1,821 1,851 1,826 Indiana 1.000 964 955 958 968 Iowa 505 481 484 3 491 475 Kansas 407 421 437 3 446 448 Michigan 1,589 1,582 2 1,675 1,587 1,601 Minnesota 715 721 756 3 776 779 Missouri 803 802 812 823 833 Nebraska 269 268 274 3 278 275 3 North Dakota 117 119 118 118 117 Ohio 1,860 1,793 1,772 , 1.758 1,787 South Dakota 124 127 129 3 132 132 Wisconsin 785 772 798 822 810 South 13,945 14,419 14,807 14,926 15,117 Alabama 724 729 722 3 726 730 Arkansas 433 437 436 2 438 441 Delaware 93 96 100 2 102 106 District of Columbia 91 86 81 2 80 81 Florida 1.485 1,665 1,862 3 1,932 1,967 Georgia 1.054 1,111 1.152 3 1.177 1,208 651 643 636 3 Kentucky 634 621 Louisiana 784 793 785 3 695 766 Maryland 699 684 715 3 736 766 Mississippi 468 506 502 s 502 497 North Carolina 1,097 1,086 1,087 3 1,092 1,121 Oklshoma 594 584 579 579 572 South Carolina 609 615 622 3 627 636 Tennessee 828 824 825 3 832 835 Texas 2,986 3237 3.383 3,436 3,408 Virginia 976 979 999 1.016 1,056 West Virginia 375 344 322- 3 320 306 West 7,807 8,468 9.198 9,505 9,617 Alaska 89 107 114 115 114 Arizona 510 572 640 z 674 685 California 4,065 4,488 4,950 5,140 5,260 Colorado 545 560 574 3 593 586 Hawaii 162 166 172 3 174 182 Idaho 203 212 221 s 226 214 Montana 152 152 153 153 150 Nevada 151 168 201 3 212 214 New Mexico 269 287 302 297 311 Oregon 448 456 485 3 499 483 Utah 370 423 448 3 454 449 Washington 739 776 840 869 872 Wyoming 102 98 98 3 99 93 Estimated by reporting States. Actual 1991 data. "Projected by NCES. "Data for 1982 exclude schools on Federal bases. NOTE-Includes most kindergarten and some nursery school enrollment. Because of rounding, details may not add to totals. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education. National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data survey, "Early Estimates: Key Statistics for Public Elementary and Secondary Education: School Year 1990-91;" Digest of Education Statistics. 1992 (forthcoming); and Projections of Education Statistics to 2002 (This table was prepared August 1992.) SEP-02-1992 19:25 FROM TO 94567739 P.11 Table 4. - - Number of teachers in educational institutions, by level of instruction and by type of control: Fall 1982 to fall 1992 [In thousands] Level of instruction and Fall Fall Fall Fall Fall type of control 1982 1987 1990¹ 19912 1992² All levels 3,168 3,425 3,585 3,645 3,669 Public 2,639 2,832 2,984 3,041 3,061 Private 529 593 602 604 608 Elementary and secondary teachers³ 2,458 2,632 2,751 2,786 2,802 Public 2,133 2,279 2,397 2,431 2,443 Private 1 325 353 354 355 358 Elementary teachers 1,413 1,564 1,680 1,705 1,715 Public 1,182 1,307 1,426 1,451 1,460 Private 1 231 257 254 254 255 Secondary teachers 1,045 1,068 1,072 1,081 1,086 Public 951 973 972 980 983 Private 1 94 95 100 101 103 Higher education instructional faculty4 710 793 834 859 868 Public 506 553 586 610 618 Private 204 240 248 249 250 Preliminary data. ²Estimated. ³Includes teachers in local public school systems and in most private schools (religiously affiliated and nonsectarian). Excludes subcollegiate departments of institutions of higher education, residential schools for exceptional children, and Federal schools. Also excludes preprimary teachers in schools without a first grade. Teachers are reported in full-time equivalents. ⁴Includes full-time and part-time faculty with the rank of instructor or above in universities, other 4-year colleges, and 2-year colleges. NOTE- Because of rounding, details may not add to totals. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics, 1992 (forthcoming); and Projections of Education Statistics to 2002. (This table was prepared August 1992.) SEP-02-1992 19:26 FROM TO 94567739 P.12 Table 5.-- - Total expenditure per student in educational institutions, by level of instruction and by type of control, and average salary for public school teachers: 1982-83 to 1992-93 [In current and constant dollars] School year Level of instruction and type of control 1982-83 1987-88 1990-91¹ 1991-921 1992-93¹ Current dollars: Expenditure per pupil in public elementary and secondary schools² $3,203 $4,654 $5,841 $6,100 $6,300 Higher education expenditure per full-time equivalent student³ 9,168 13,820 15,682 16,000 16,600 Public 7,932 11,873 13,308 13,600 14,100 Private 12,948 19,579 23,033 23,800 24,700 Constant 1991-92 dollars: Expenditure per pupil in public elementary and secondary schools⁴ 4,511 5,553 6,028 6,100 6,100 Higher education expenditure per full-time equivalent student⁴ 12,910 16,489 16,185 16,000 16,100 Public 11,169 14,165 13,735 13,600 13,700 Private 18,233 23,359 23,771 23,800 24,000 Average salary for public school teachers:5 Current dollars 20,695 28,034 32,977 34,413 35,800 Constant 1991-92 dollars⁴ 29,141 33,447 34,034 34,413 34,700 Estimated. 2 Data represent total expenditures (excluding "other" current expenditures) per pupil in average daily attendance. 3Data represent current-fund expenditures and additions to plant value per full-time-equivalent student. "Data adjusted by the Consumer Price Index, U.S. Department of Labor. The 1992-93 CPI estimate is derived from 1992 and 1993 data in Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1993, prepared by the Office of Management and Budget. ⁵Data for 1982-83, 1987-88, 1990-91, and 1991-92 are from the National Education Association. The 1991-92 data are preliminary. SOURCES: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, unpublished projections and estimates; and National Education Association, Estimates of School Statistics, 1991-92 (copyrighted 1992). (This table was prepared August 1992.) SEP-02-1992 19:27 FROM TO 94567739 P.13 Table 6.- Total expenditures of educational institutions, by level of instruction and by type of control: 1982-83 to 1992-93 [In billions] School year Level of instruction and type of control 1982-83 1987-88 1990-91¹ 1991-921 1992-931 Current dollars All levels $212.1 $313.4 $402.3 $425.2 $445.4 Public 172.8 253.2 327.4 346.6 363.1 Private 39.3 60.2 75.0 78.4 82.2 Elementary and secondary expenditures 128.7 188.0 246.8 261.1 273.8 Public 118.4 172.7 227.6 240.9 252.5 Private¹ 10.3 15.3 19.2 20.1 21.2 Higher education expenditures² 83.4 125.4 155.6 164.0 171.6 Public 54.3 80.5 99.8 105.7 110.6 Private¹ 29.0 44.9 55.8 58.3 61.0 Constant 1991-92 dollars³ All levels $311.3 $373.9 $415.2 $425.2 $431.9 Public 253.6 302.1 337.8 346.6 352.2 Private 57.7 71.8 77.4 78.4 79.8 Elementary and secondary expenditures 189.0 224.3 254.7 261.1 265.5 Public 173.8 206.0 234.9 240.9 244.9 Private¹ 15.1 18.3 19.8 20.1 20.6 Higher education expenditures² 122.4 149.6 160.5 164.0 166.4 Public 79.8 96.0 103.0 105.7 107.2 Private¹ 42.6 53.5 57.6 58.3 59.2 Estimated. ²Includes current-fund expenditures and additions to plant value. 3Data adjusted by the Consumer Price Index, U.S. Department of Labor. The 1992-93 CPI estimate is derived from 1992 and Budget. 1993 data from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1993, prepared by the Office of Management and NOTE--Because of rounding, details may not add to totals. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics, 1992 (forthcoming); Projections of Education Statistics to 2002, and unpublished projections and estimates. (This table was prepared August 1992.) SEP-02-1992 19:27 FROM TO 94567739 P.14 Table 7.- - Number of graduates of educational institutions, by level of education completed: 1982-83 to 1992-93 [In thousands] Level of education School year completed 1982-83 1987-88 1990-91 1991-92¹ 1992-931 High school graduates, total 2,888 2,773 2,511 2,485 2,509 Public 2,598 2,500 2,263 2,251 2,273 Private¹ 290 273 247 234 236 College and university graduates: Associate degrees 456 435 470 480 490 Bachelor's degrees 970 995 1,084 1,105 1,131 Master's degrees 290 299 337 344 345 First-professional degrees² 73 71 73 74 75 Doctor's degrees 33 35 40 40 41 Estimated. 2 Includes degrees in medicine, optometry, osteopathic medicine, pharmacy, podiatry, chiropractic, veterinar medicine, dentistry, law, and theological professions. NOTE.- - Because of rounding, details may not add to totals. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics, 1992 (forthcoming); Projections of Education Statistics to 2002; and unpublished estimates. (This table was prepared August 1992.) Chart 1 --Enrollment in educational institutions, by level: Fall 1970 to fall 1992 In millions 50 SEP-02-1992 19:28 FROM 40 Elementary 30 20 Secondary TO 10 Higher education 0 1970 1980 1990 1975 1985 1992 Fall SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center forEducation Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics, 1992 (forthcoming). 94567739 P.15 Chart 2--Teachers in educational institutions, by level: Fall 1970 to fall 1992 In millions 2.0 1.6 SEP-02-1992 19:28 FROM 1.6 1.4 Elementary 1.2 Secondary 1.0 0.8 Higher education 0.6 TO 0.4 0.2 0 1970 1980 1990 1975 1985 1992 Year SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 94567739 P.16 Digest of Education Statistics, 1992 (forthcoming). Chart 3--Expenditures of educational institutions in constant 1991-92 dollars, by level: 1970-71 to 1992-93 In billions $300 SEP-02-1992 19:28 FROM 280 260 240 220 Elementary and secondary 200 schools 180 160 140 120 100 TO Higher education institutions 80 60 40 20 0 1970 1980 1990 1975 1985 1992 School year beginning - SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 94567739 P.17 Digest of Education Statistics, 1992 (forthcoming). SEP-08-1992 13:18 FROM US DEPT OF EDUCATION TO 94566218 P.01 456-2216 7702 FAX To: Carol Ashune Aarhus 456-6218 Carol- Here is further detail on The ime are discussed yerkerday -- international comparison education spending. calling you need further information Brimp SEP-08-1992 13:19 FROM US DEPT OF EDUCATION TO 94566218 P.02 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON OF EDUCATION SPENDING Compared with most of its international competitors, the United States continues to fund education generously. In 1988, the latest year for which international data are available, the United States spent $4131 per elementary and secondary student - more than any comparable developed country except Switzerland (see attached Table). U.S. per pupil spending is well ahead of that of Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Japan, and Germany. Furthermore, the 1988 figure represents a significant increase over past years. The United States spent 17.1 percent more (in current dollars) per pupil in 1988 than in 1986 -- an increase greater than those for 13 other countries in the comparison (only the increases for Denmark (20 percent) and Ireland (17.6 percent) were greater). These figures are calculated by determining current expenditures for both public and private elementary and secondary schools, and dividing by the number of pupils enrolled at these levels. Conversion to U.S. dollars was done using the Purchasing Power Parity Index, developed by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Data on the 1988-89 school year were obtained from the 1991 Digest of Education Statistics (for the United States) and the 1991 UNESCO Statistical Yearbook (for all other countries). The result is per pupil expenditures in comparable U.S. dollar terms. These figures may differ from calculations published elsewhere, for the following reasons: The figures in this analysis are based on both public and private schools. Some reports published over the past two years focused solely on public spending, which in a system like ours, does not give a complete picture of support for education. Some of these analyses have gone so far in their calculations as to divide public spending by public and private enrollment --- a method guaranteed to produce distorted results. Data represent those portions of current expenditures and enrollments identified by countries as attributable to pre-primary, primary, and secondary schools. (U.S. pre- primary figures include spending and enrollment only for kindergartners and those younger children enrolled in preschool programs run by public elementary schools, while data for other countries tend to include a wider range of preschool programs.) Other analyses have included expenditures labeled in the UNESCO source as "other" and "not distributed," and therefore not directly attributable to the levels of education of interest here. The United States reports no expenditures in these categories. It would be difficult still to contend that our education problems stem primarily from "underfunding" schools as compared with other nations, or that a general funding increase will solve these problems. Our analysis is the most recent to demonstrate that, in financial terms, the United States supports elementary and secondary education as well as or better than its international competitors. Attachment SEP-08-1992 13:19 FROM US DEPT OF EDUCATION TO 94566218 P.03 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON OF EDUCATION EXPENDITURES Current Expenditures o per pupil Pre-Primary, Primary and Secondary Levels (in US dollars) Rank Switzerland 1988 $4,315 1 United States 1988 $4,131 2 Canada 1983 $3,791 3 Norway 1988 $3,716 4 Denmark 1988 $3,671 5 Sweden 1988 $3,468 6 Austria 1988 $2,939 7 United Kingdom 1988 $2,768 8 Belgium 1987 $2,262 9 Netherlands 1988 $2,261 10 France 1988 $2,221 11 Japan 1988 $2,200 12 Germany (FRG) 1988 $2,168 13 Australia 1987 $2,065 14 New Zealand 1988 $1,541 15 treland 1987 $1,365 16 Notes: Currency conversion: The 1988 GDP PPP Index was used to convert currencies for all countries except Ireland, Australia and Belgium, for which the 1987 GDP PPP index was used. Both indexes were produced by the Organisation of Economic Cooporation and Development, 1991. Date sources: US data were taken from the Digest of Education Statistics, 1991. All other data are from the UNESCO Statistical Yearbook, 1991. US figures are for K-12 only. U.S. Department of Education Office of Policy and Planning March 1992 SEP-08-1992 13:13 FROM US DEPT OF EDUCATION TO 94566218 P.01 456-2216 7702 FAX To: CAROL Ashure Aarhus 456-6218 Carol- Here is further detail on the ime are discussed yerderday -- international comparison of education spending. Call if you need further information Bormo SEP-08-1992 13:14 FROM US DEPT OF EDUCATION TO 94566218 P.02 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON OF EDUCATION SPENDING Compared with most of its international competitors, the United States continues to fund education generously. Las 1988, the latest your for which international data are available, the United States spent $4131 per elementary and secondary student - more than any comparable developed country except Switzerland (see attached Table). U.S. per pupil spending is well ahead of that of Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Japan, and Germany. Furthermore, the 1988 figure represents a significant increase over past years. The United States spent 17.1 percent more (in current dollars) per pupil in 1988 than in 1986 - an increase greater than those for 13 other countries in the comparison (only the increases for Denmark (20 percent) and Ireland (17.6 percent) were greater). These figures are calculated by determining current expenditures for both public and private elementary and secondary schools, and dividing by the number of pupils enrolled at these levels. Conversion to U.S. dollars was done using the Purchasing Power Parity Index, developed by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Data on the 1988-89 school year were obtained from the 1991 Digest of Education Statistics (for the United States) and the 1991 UNESCO Statistical Yearbook (for all other countries). The result is per pupil expenditures in comparable U.S. dollar terms. These figures may differ from calculations published elsewhere, for the following reasons: The figures in this analysis are based on both public and private schools. Some reports published over the past two years focused solely on public spending, which in a system like ours, does not give a complete picture of support for education. Some of these analyses have gone BO far in their calculations as to divide public spending by public and private enrollment -- a method guaranteed to produce distorted results. o Data represent those portions of current expenditures and enrollments identified by countries as attributable to pre-primary, primary, and secondary schools. (U.S. pre- primary figures include spending and enrollment only for kindergartners and those younger children enrolled in preschool programs run by public elementary schools, while data for other countries tend to include a wider range of preschool programs.) Other analyses have included expenditures labeled in the UNESCO source as "other" and "not distributed," and therefore not directly attributable to the levels of education of interest here. The United States reports no expenditures in these categories. It would be difficult still to contend that our education problems stem primarily from "underfunding" schools as compared with other nations, or that a general funding increase will solve these problems. Our analysis is the most recent to demonstrate that, in - financial terms, the United States supports elementary and secondary education as well as or better than its international competitors. Attachment 132. TABLE 23. Postsecondary enrolment related to'relevant age group, by level, age group and sex, Canada, 1985-86 to 1989-90 TABLEAU 23. Effectifs postsecondaires par rapport à la population des groupes d'âge correspondants, selon le niveau, le groupe d'âge et le sexe, Canada, 1985-86 à 1989-90 Characteristics 1985-86 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 Caractéristiques percent pourcentage FULL-TIME À PLEIN TEMPS Community college Collège communautaire: 17-year-olds enrolled related to 17-year-old M. 7.4 7.8 7.1 6.9 7.1 population Effectifs scolaires des 17 ans F. 10.2 10.6 9.8 9.6 10.2 en proportion de la population de 17 ans T. 8.8 9.2 8.4 8.2 8.6 18-21-year-olds enrolled related to 18-21 age M. 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.2 group Effectifs scolaires des 18-21 ans en F. 12.5 13.0 13.4 13.7 13.6 proportion de la population des 18-21 ans T. 12.0 12.2 12.4 12.5 12.4 22-24-year-olds enrolled related to 22-24 age M. 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 group Effectifs scolaires des 22-24 ans en F. 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.0 proportion de la population des 22-24 ans T. 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 25-29-year-olds enrolled related to 25-29 age M. 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 group Effectifs scolaires des 25-29 ans en F. 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 proportion de la population des 25-29 ans T. 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 University Université: Undergraduate 1er cycle: 18-21-year-olds enrolled related to 18-21 age M. 13.0 13.4 14.0 14.4 14.8 group Effectifs scolaires des 18-21 ans en F. 14.6 15.4 16.8 17.8 18.7 proportion de la population des 18-21 ans T. -13.8 14.4 15.4 16.1 16.7 22-24-year-olds enrolled related to 22-24 age M. 8.9 9.2 9.2 9.4 9.7 group Effectifs scolaires des 22-24 ans en F. 6.6 7.2 7.5 7.9 8.6 proportion de la population des 22-24 ans T. 7.8 8.2 8.3 8.7 9.2 25-29-year-olds enrolled related to 25-29 age M. 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 group Effectifs scolaires des 25-29 ans en F. 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 proportion de la population des 25-29 ans T. 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 30-34-year-olds enrolled related to 30-34 age M. 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 group Effectifs scolaires des 30-34 ans en F. 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 proportion de la population des 30-34 ans T. 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 35-39-year-olds enrolled related to 35-39 age M. 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 group Effectifs scolaires des 35-39 ans en F. 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 proportion de la population des 35-39 ans T. 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 40-49-year-olds enrolled related to 40-49 age M. 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 group Effectifs scolaires des 40-49 ans en F. 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 proportion de la population des 40-49 ans T. 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 133 TABLE 23. Postsecondary enrolment related to relevant age group, by level, age group and sex, Canada, 1985-86 to 1989-90 Continued TABLEAU 23. Effectifs postsecondaires par rapport à la population des groupes d'âge correspondants, selon le niveau, le groupe d'âge et le sexe, Canada, 1985-86 à 1989-90 suite Characteristics 1985-86 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 Caractéristiques percent - pourcentage Graduate 2ᵉ et 3ᵉ cycles: 22-24-year-olds enrolled related to 22-24 age M. 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 group Effectifs scolaires des 22-24 ans en F. 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 proportion de la population des 22-24 ans T. 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 25-29-year-olds enrolled related to 25-29 age M. 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 group Effectifs scolaires des 25-29 ans en F. 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 proportion de la population des 25-29 ans T. 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 30-34-year-olds enrolled related to 30-34 age M. 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 group Effectifs scolaires des 30-34 ans en F. 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 proportion de la population des 30-34 ans T. 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 35-39-year-olds enrolled related to 35-39 age M. 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 group Effectifs scolaires des 35-39 ans en F. 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 proportion de la population des 35-39 ans T. 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 40-49-year-olds enrolled related to 40-49 age M. 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 group Effectifs scolaires des 40-49 ans en F. 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 proportion de la population des 40-49 ans T. 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 PART-TIME À TEMPS PARTIEL University Université: Undergraduate - 1er cycle: 18-21-year-olds enrolled related to 18-21 age M. 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 group Effectifs scolaires des 18-21 ans en F. 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 proportion de la population des 18-21 ans T. 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 22-24-year-olds enrolled related to 22-24 age M. 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.8 group Effectifs scolaires des 22-24 ans en F. 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.8 proportion de la population des 22-24 ans T. 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 25-29-year-olds enrolled related to 25-29 age M. 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.9 group Effectifs scolaires des 25-29' ans en F. 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.8 proportion de la population des 25-29 ans T. 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 134 TABLE 23. Postsecondary enrolment related to'relevant age group, by level, age group and sex, Canada, 1985-86 to 1989-90 Concluded TABLEAU 23. Effectifs postsecondaires par rapport à la population des groupes d'âge correspondants, selon le niveau, le groupe d'âge et le sexe, Canada, 1985-86 à 1989-90 - fin Characteristics 1985-86 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 Caractéristiques percent - pourcentage Undergraduate 1er cycle Concluded fin: 30-34-year-olds enrolled related to 30-34 age M. 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 group Effectifs scolaires des 30-34 ans en F. 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.3 proportion de la population des 30-34 ans T. 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 35-39-year-olds enrolled related to 35-39 age M. 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 group Effectifs scolaires des 35-39 ans en F. 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.5 proportion de la population des 35-39 ans T. 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 40-49-year-olds enrolled related to 40-49 age M. 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 group Effectifs scolaires des 40-49 ans en F. 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 proportion de la population des 40-49 ans T. 13 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 Graduate 2ᵉ et 3ᵉ cycles: 22-24-year-olds enrolled related to 22-24 age M. 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 group Effectifs scolaires des 22-24 ans en F. 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 proportion de la population des 22-24 ans T. 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 25-29-year-olds enrolled related to 25-29 age M. 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 group Effectifs scolaires des 25-29 ans en F. 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 proportion de la population des 25-29 ans T. 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 30-34-year-olds enrolled related to 30-34 age M. 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 group Effectifs scolaires des 30-34 ans en F. 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 proportion de la population des 30-34 ans T. 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 35-39-year-olds enrolled related to 35-39 age M. 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 group Effectifs scolaires des 35-39 ans en F. 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 proportion de la population des 35-39 ans T. 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 40-49-year-olds enrolled related to 40-49 age M. 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 group Effectifs scolaires des 40-49 ans en F. 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 proportion de la population des 40-49 ans T. 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 135 TABLE 24. Percentage distribution¹ of part-time undergraduate and graduate enrolment, by age, Canada and provinces, 1979-80 and 1989-90 TABLEAU 24. Répartition en pourcentage¹ des effectifs universitaires des 1er, 2c et 3° cycles à temps partiel, selon l'âge, Canada et provinces, 1979-80 et 1989-90 Undergraduate Graduate Province and age 1ᵉʳ cycle 2ᵉ et 3e cycles Province et âge 1979-80 1989-90 1979-80 1989-90 percent - pourcentage Canada: 2 3 -- - 19 years and less - ans et moins 20-24 years ans 23 22 8 5 25-29 " - " 24 21 33 26 42 30-39 " - " 34 31 43 40-49 " - " 12 18 11 22 50 years and over - ans et plus 5 6 4 4 Total No. nbre 199,264 265,589 30,572 39,033 Newfoundland - Terre-Neuve: - - 19 years and less - ans et moins 4 8 20-24 years ans 24 31 5 2 26 25-29 11 - If 26 21 36 30-39 " - If 34 27 44 48 40-49 H " 10 11 11 22 50 years and over - ans et plus 3 2 4 2 Total No. nbre 3,213 3,784 304 564 Prince Edward Island fle-du-Prince-Edouard: 19 years and less - ans et moins 4 5 - 20 15 - 20-24 years ans 25-29 " " 20 17 - 30-39 " - " 33 30 - ... 40-49 " - If 13 23 - 50 years and over - ans et plus 9 10 - ... Total No. nbre 724 842 8 See footnote(s) at end of table. Voir note(s) à la fin du tableau. Canadian Embassy Ambassade du Canada WASHINGTON US PRSTAGE 501 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20001 SEP 8'92 029 DC Ms. J. Bunton Room # 111½ Old Executive Office Blacy. 17 & Pennsylvania Ave. NW Washington, DC 20500 200-529-9994 202 232 0149 Bob 4269 multi city study AlsoinAmerican Spectator (Where Public School Teachere Send their children to data from School: A Preliminary Analysis 1 198 study 1988 Resident Fellow) AMI #aresult as a 5% census sample from a professor of sociology at Muniv. Dennis Doyle 301-986-9350 009300 Lizallocst CATO 546 0200 20 AMER INST. 862 5800 (616) Kalamazos (616)301 5055 West Michig Unit every Thirthy Light (616)671 4413 JoanFerdinand Joan Chicago, IL Heritage Reports March 1990 Pat Kell's cost. April 1990 18412 2277 Bettina Brandt 8534 2222 Chicago Thibune 868 4259 John Fund Dennis AEI Doyle 212- census data from 1988 once at Ed Hudson Institute Sr. Res Fellow B now 20223-7770 wimes 7/6/92 Don lambro WTIMES Don Lambro 703-569-0182 (h) 636-3000 (o) X 3168 WSJ editorial 6/26/92 lead editorial in Review & #Outlork pm A16 Title "The Educathn Revolution" of editorial when See. Alex. came out w/ GI Bill (roll-out 6/25) LA WSJ Bureau (213) 658-6464 , Withing 213-658-3821 RhondaRundel WIDC WSJ switchboard 021-630 BIO 2900 202-862-9200 MW88 2124162000 BobBrennan newsdesk FROM WSJ-LA 09.10.1992 17:02 NO. 1 P.1 THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. DOW JONES & COMPANY, INC. Publishers 6500 WILSHIRE BLVD., suite 1500. LOS ARGELES. CA 90040 (213) 658-3821 PASSIMILE (213) 058-3828 FACSIMILE COVER SHEET Date: 9/10/92 PLEASE DELIVER THE FOLLOWING PAGE (s) TO: Name: Facsimile number: Carol Aarhus 202/456-6218 From: Phone number: Rhonda Rundle (213) 658-3817 658- Total number of pages, including cover sheet: 2 FROM WSJ-LA 09.10.1992 17:02 NO. 1 P. 2 Thursday, June 25, 1992 A14 THE WALL STREET JOURNAL THURS REVIEW & OUTLOOK School Cho By MARTHA C. BROWN is freedor The Education Revolution The educational choice movement is Choice all gaining ground. Today. Education Secre- reject the "What this country needs is a G.I. of educational malpractice. Out of 66 tary Lamar Alexander is expected to taxpayer Bill for Kids," says Education Secre- public high schools, only 19 graduate propose providing $1,000 vouchers to one seling for tary Lamar Alexander. The educa- more than half their. students, and million low- and moderate-income parents. many bel tional choice proposal he announces many of those are nearly illiterate. The administration's move comes in the family. m today would provide $1,000 scholar- Chicago's public school teachers recoil wake of state efforts. Like If in horror from sending their children California's Choice in Education wants pri' ships so that one million low- and mod- to the very system they teach in; 46% League has announced that it has enough public scl erate-income parents could send their signatures to put a state school voucher playing fl kids to the school of their choice, pub- send their kids to private schools. Chi- referendum on the ballot. In March. the lic or private. cago's Catholic schools, which have a Wisconsin Supreme Court upheld the right 1 Some 47 years after the original racial mix similar to the city's popula- of poor Milwaukee parents to choose pri- G.I. Bill opened up both public and tion, graduate more than 99% of their vate schools paid for with tax dollars. A campaign for school choice legislation in publ private educational opportunities for high school students. More than three- millions of war veterans, Secretary quarters go on to college. Pennsylvania is temporarily stalled after a shor Alexander wants to do the same for Recent lawsuits filed by the Insti- preliminary victory last year. Four Ohio low-income children. His initiative is tute for Justice on behalf of parents in legislators recently introduced a biparti- san proposal for school vouchers. Illinois's make U.: á radical step from an administration both Los Angeles and Chicago ask that house minority leader, Republican Lee worst. Le often criticized as having no domestic control of the children's share of state Daniels, 8 former opponent of school would leve agenda. school aid be transferred to their par- choice, now favors it. Anothe The administration program is fur- ents SO they can enroll them in other private SC Uncertified Teachers state if t) ther evidence that empowering par- public or private schools. They argue As proponents of school choice hail Frank Ke ents with choice is an idea whose time that the abysmal quality of their public these breakthroughs. public school parti- at the Uni Has come. Support for choice cuts schools violates their children's right sans quake-and their arguments for shor- in Educat across income, political and racial to equal educational opportunities. ing up the public school wall grow more will accep lines. Its major opponent is the en- John Jenkins, one of the parents illogical and self-serving. ture of lar trenched educational bureaucracy bringing sult, says he tried to improve Days before the Wisconsin decision, private S( that benefits from the status quo. Chicago's schools but ran into a brick Chicago's Board of Education president fund priva In California, where a choice initia- wall, and that choice is the only re- said vouchers would encourage "providers ment regt tive will probably be on this Novem- course for the schools and more [of education] that are out just to make This S a buck. They'll have uncertified teachers, led some ber's ballot, teachers unions vow to broadly for the hope-starved inner uncertified facilities." How much does his would reft spend $14 million to defeat it. The city; "Quality education could change board pay for certified teachers? Does he basis for measure would grant students who conditions overnight." read the test scores? The reports of rapes private et wanted to attend a private school a The Bush administration believes and shootings In certified city schools? according $2,600 annual state scholarship. Over- its new G.I. Bill is the fastest way to Harry Weinberg, superintendent of the expert on all, it would save big bucks since the bring good schools back into the in- San Diego County public schools, also wor- says that scholarship would represent less than ner cities. Far from destroying public ries that parents will fall prey to no- an institu half the average cost of a public-school education, choice would in fact account private education purveyors. He won't ent education. strengthen public schools as they asks in Education Week, "If a private private SC Educrats did everything they could learn to improve and compete for stu- 'school spends public money foolishly, to Choice whom can taxpayers complain?" He for- of state-su to block the initiative, from trying to dents. Mr. Alexander expects many gets parents can withdraw children If the church an intimidate potential petition signers to parents will use the $1,000 scholar- school doesn't shape up. tablishme using a Los Angeles cable-TV channel ships to send their children to public Another of his concerns: "Unregulated One says: to propagandize. Julie Korenstein, an magnet or special-education schools. private schools would be free to promote specting a L.A. school board member, said that Others would find good private schools their particular religious, social, or ethnic prohibitin under choice "you end up with bigotry finally within their means. A surpris- agendas at the expense of our democratic If givil and ultimately with a fascist type of ing 37% of private schools charge less traditions." At the core of these traditions for religio society." Helen Bernstein, head of the than $1,000 in annual tuition, and the United Teachers of Los Angeles, sug- average charge is only $1,915 a year. gests choice will result in more Los The fate of the proposal is now up Angeles riots. She told CBN News: "If A C to Congress. Senator Ted Kennedy, this initiative passes, I will be more whose own children attended private than happy to go on record to predict schools, has been a fierce opponent of By DAVID M. JONES recession the kinds of uprisings that we saw will educational choice. So have most other George Bush leaned on Alan Greenspan inflation be nothing compared to what will hap- Democrats, but their opposition may about as hard as he could this week. Mr. sought to pen a few years down the line." be weakening as the overwhelming Bush's call to action may indeed succeed in ward glid. Starr Parker, a small-business support for choice among the poor and provoking the Fed chairman to Iower inter- below the owner active in promoting choice in minorities becomes more clear. est rates. But the president's public plea potential also represents a new turn in an interest- At the sal the black community. calls such state- Recently. Democratic Senator Bill ing story. It is a story that reflects encourage ments "absurd demagoguery." "Polls Bradley voted for a pilot program that the limits of central bank chairmen and previous show over 70% of minorities support would allow students to use federal central banks. It is also the story of asset pric school choice." she told us. "The rich money to attend private schools. "I'm Alan Greenspan. The Extended Page 2. 1 school choice," she told us. "The rich money to attend private schools. "I'm Alan Greenspan. considera have choice now. When I was on wel- not saying choice is the answer, but All Fed chairmen, including Mr. Green- span's per fare, there was no way I could put my many of our schools are so bad we span's predecessors, have one main eco- fellow Fc( child in a good school. It's time we have to try something dramatic," he nomic lever at their disposal: short-term desired. § stop condemning the poor to a monop- told us. "Assumptions about how gov- interest rates. In his first term as Fed recognize oly education system." ernment provides services are chang- Chairman, Mr. Greenspan used this lever interpreti The same activism is apparent in ing all over the world, and maybe It's to nearly its maximum potential. As his signals of Chicago, where 410,000 public school time Americans challenge our own second term begins, Mr. Greenspan may slow to I students are subjected daily to a form ways of thinking on that." be finding that his policy lever has reached sheet" re its limit. This is not Mr. Greenspan's "fault." It is the fault of a Congress that Trying a New Yitzhak failed to allow changes on the fiscal side that would help the nation move faster into In an election variously described Labor will push for extensive au- economic recovery. It is to some degree too as a referendum on the settlements, the "fault" of Mr. Bush, who could have tonomy for Palestinians in the occu- tried harder than he did to prevent the tax the economy and the Middle East pied territories, but only slight border hike that resulted from the 1990 budget peace process, Israeli voters have put changes. Any major concessions, like agreement. Yitzhak Rabin's Labor Party back into those negotiated in the Camp David Let's look, though. at Mr. Greenspan's power after 15 years of Likud rule. accords, would have to be approved by odyssey. He first used his lever to deal Clearly, the vote was a call for change. two-thirds of the Knesset and are un- successfully with the 1987 stock mar- Whether Labor can supply it is an- likely. Mr. Rabin has also said he ket crash. Then he and his colleagues Handlity to the T Clarke fax 336-7380 PAGE 1 LEVEL 1 - 2 OF 27 STORIES Copyright 1992 World Times, Inc. WorldPaper September, 1992 SECTION: NEW AMERICAN AGENDA; Pg. 15 LENGTH: 1011 words HEADLINE: Society's dumping ground BYLINE: BY TIMOTHY LIGHT IN KALAMAZOO, USA; Timothy Light, a former college president and provost, is on the faculty of Western Michigan University. public schools in Chicago, only 19 graduate more than half of their students. It is no wonder, then, that 46 percent of Chicago public school teachers send their own children to private schools, 99 percent of which graduate and 75 percent go on to college. Educators claim that schools have become the dumping ground for many of the problems that society finds insoluble. As one prominent private school head said in frustration: "We are rapidly destroying our cities, and that is why LEVEL 1 - 5 OF 27 STORIES Copyright 1990 The Heritage Foundation Heritage Foundation Reports April 28, 1990 SECTION: THE HERITAGE LECTURES; No. 257 LENGTH: 3903 words HEADLINE: Business Leadership and Education Reform: The Next Frontier Switzerland among the world's industrialized nations. In contrast to our $4,806 per student spent in the public schools, American private schools spend a median amount of $900 per student at the elementary level, and $1,500 at the secondary level, a ... ... Policy and Finance told us that 69 percent of parents with children attending the city's public schools would enroll their children in private schools, if they could afford it. We know from recent newspaper reports that numerous Chicago political, civic, and educational leaders - minority and majority leaders alike -- send their children to private schools of choice. TM TM TM LEXIS:NEXIS® LEXIS-NEXIS LEXIS-NEXIS® Services of Mead Data Central, Inc. Recyclable PAGE 2 1990 The Heritage Foundation, April 28, 1990 A 1985 study by the Chicago Panel on Public School Policy and Finance told us that 69 percent of parents with children attending the city's public schools would enroll their children in private schools, if they could afford it. We know from recent newspaper reports that numerous Chicago political, civic, and educational leaders - minority and majority leaders alike - send their children to private schools of choice. And, what is perhaps the best-informed of all endorsements, 46 percent of the children of Chicago public school teachers who live in the city attend private schools, as compared with only 22 percent of all school-age children in Chicago. Double Standard. Obviously, many of those with the purchasing power, those with the ability to pay both taxes and private school tuition, exercise their choice option with no residual guilt about having abandoned the public school system, though some of them will not hesitate to use this self-serving "abandonment" argument to deny the same choice option to the 70 percent of poverty-level parents whose children constitute a $2.3 billion captive market for Chicago public education. Many of those who would deny choice to the poor are the most vocal proponents of "parental empowerment" and "equity." Excuse me for thinking that this whole situation, this double standard, just reeks with inconsistency, with cynicism, with contemptuous condescension, and with an insulting and ultimately disabling TM TM TM LEXIS:NEXIS® LEXIS-NEXIS® LEXIS·NEXIS® Services of Mead Data Central, Inc. Recyclable PAGE 2 5TH STORY of Level 1 printed in FULL format. Copyright 1990 The Heritage Foundation Heritage Foundation Reports April 28, 1990 SECTION: THE HERITAGE LECTURES; No. 257 LENGTH: 3903 words HEADLINE: Business Leadership and Education Reform: The Next Frontier BYLINE: By Patrick J. Keleher, Jr.; Patrick J. Keleher, Jr. is President of TEACH America in Chicago, Illinois, and Vice President of The City Club of Chicago BODY: In November of 1987, Dr. William J. Bennett fired a shot heard 'round the world of education. It was not a warning shot across the bow. No, it was a full Bennett broadside at the Chicago public school system, which the then-U.s. Secretary of Education branded the "worst in America." I was about ten feet away from Secretary Bennett when he made that since much-quoted remark, later to become the title for theChicago Tribune's stunning investigative report on Chicago public education. The Education Secretary released his broadside at a press conference after a visit I had helped arrange with the executives of Chicago United, a business-civic organization for which I was public policy director. Chicago United was to become the spearhead of our business community's deep and abiding involvement in the most radical school reform experiment in United States history. Some things just cannot be sugarcoated, or should not be even if they can, and the public education disaster in this city was one of those things. Anyhow, Dr. Bennett's many talents do not extend, thank heavens, to sugarcoating. From results that had just been released, he knew that 35 of the 54 high schools scoring in the bottom percentile nationwide on the ACT exam were Chicago schools. Over half of our 64 high schools were in the lowest percentile on a national test taken by our "best and brightest," our college-bound youngsters. He knew that between 43 and 53 percent of our entering freshmen drop out of high school, and that dropout rates reach 67 percent in the inner city. He knew that only one out of three of those who do graduate can read at the twelfth-grade level. One out of three. Illiterate Graduates. Perhaps Secretary Bennett knew that one of our large employers, Citicorp Savings of Illinois, each week rejects 840 out of every 1,000 applicants for its entry-level teller and clerical positions, because the job seekers cannot complete the forms. And perhaps he knew that almost half of the students in one of our neighborhood adult literacy programs are Chicago public high school graduates graduates, not dropouts. They are considered "functionally illiterate," that is, they cannot read above the sixth grade level. Yet they have been awarded high school diplomas. Doesn't this make you wonder about truth in labeling, about material misrepresentation, about false certification, and about "product" liability? Less cynically, what does this say about the institutional ethics, about the LEXIS·NEXIS® LEXIS·NEXIS® LEXIS-NEXIS® Services of Mead Data Central, Inc. Recyclable PAGE 3 1990 The Heritage Foundation, April 28, 1990 integrity, about the fundamental honesty of an urban educational system that would so misrepresent to its students their readiness for participation as self-sustaining members of our democracy? Last year, at The Heritage Foundation's excellent conference, "Can Business Save Education?" I talked about how the Chicago business community teamed up with parent and community leaders to form a new political force to counter that of the education establishment. Coalition Building. My position was that, by itself alone, business could not "save" education, but that by closing ranks in coalition with parent and community leaders, which is precisely what we did, business could help bring about meaningful school reform. We formed a new political counterweight that the legislators in Springfield simply had to deal with. We worked at the grassroots level, we bypassed the establishment, WE stuck together, we worked the media, and WE came up with the most sweeping reform legislation in the land. As its most revolutionary feature, the Chicago Public School Reform Act establishes a local school council at each of our 540 elementary and secondary schools. Each eleven-member council is composed of six parents, two community representatives, two teachers and the principal. The council has three major responsibilities: to adopt a School Improvement Plan, to adopt a budget to implement that plan based upon a lump sum allocation, and to decide whether to terminate the incumbent principal and select a new one or to retain the incumbent -- in either case to sign the selected principal to a four-year performance contract. We were called "romantics" for our belief that indigenous leaders would emerge in each community to fill the 5,400 slots for parent, community and teacher representatives. Our harshest critics very often were some middle-class minority leaders, who confidently predicted that parents and community members in our poorest neighborhoods were too apathetic and uninformed to get involved with governing their local schools. "Romantics" Vindicated. How wrong they were. Last October we held our first local school council elections. Some 313,000 persons turned out to chose from more than 17,000 candidates for the 5,400 council seats. Our turnout rate was three times the average rate for suburban school board elections. How romantic, indeed. Another sign that reform has arrived was the Interim Board of Education's elimination of 544 jobs from the central administration and its reallocation of the resulting resources -- $40 million -- as discretionary funds for the new councils. Also, almost one-third of all principals have already left the system, either because of voluntary early retirements or due to terminations by the local school councils. I believe that the Chicago "meltdown" has been arrested. Whether it has been reversed -- whether it can be reversed -- is yet another question. Last December, when the City Club of Chicago held its annual forum on critical municipal issues, I voiced some early worries about the direction school reform seems to be taking, worries about a new and limiting orthodoxy that seems to be settling in on yesterday's reformers, many of whom are today's education bureaucrats. Some have, in the very first year of the reform, developed striking family resemblances to the bureaucrats they replaced. TM LEXIS:NEXIS® LEXIS·NEXIS® LEXIS-NEXIS® Services of Mead Data Central, Inc. Recyclable PAGE 4 1990 The Heritage Foundation, April 28, 1990 The most telling resemblance, a veritabledeja vu, is their reductionist approach to improving public education. Yes, we're back to money, back to more and more tax dollars, as the cure-all for the system's many ailments. When you blow the leaves away from the new bureaucrats' bear trap, everything reduces to a single concept: money. Besides my worry about the reformers' money fixation, I have another worry: business executives' strangely aberrant behavior in the prsence of leaders of the education establishment. Chester Finn has described this phenomenon in his National Review article (February 24, 1989) titled with the double entendre "Education as Funny Business." Soft Standards. For some reason, business people seem to abandon their critical instincts when dealing with educators. For some strange reason, business leaders seem to be mesmerized by the titles, by the jargon, and perhaps by the flag-waving that comes out of the incredibly powerful education establishment. For whatever reason, business tends not to evaluate the establishment by the tough bottom-line standards of performance and accountability with which it evaluates all other goal-oriented operations. In its strange metamorphosis, business appears almost schizophrenic as it exempts the education establishment from the values, from the principles and from the disciplines by which business relentlessly judges itself. By not being as critical as it should be, by not applying its skills, performance expectations and standards where appropriate to education, by permitting education to operate as an artificial social construct without genuine market or market-like constraints (that is, as a monopoly), by not insisting on a return on its massive education investment with payback in the form of increased academic achievement, by waiving cost/benefit justifications where education is concerned, by relying too often on education advisors hand-picked by the establishment, then accepting without challenge their carefully selected and strained statistics, by all these practices business is failing to provide the economic reality-check that education in this country so desperately needs. This reality-check is something the business community, as a deeply invested education stakeholder, is uniquely qualified to provide -- and something that no other powerful institutional player, most certainly not government, will provide if business fails to do SO. When I was an operations reviewer in the Bell System, we had a maxim "Don't expect what you don't inspect." Time after time I wonder whether business, particularly big business, is really inspecting the education financials and raising the questions that would be raised internally were 50 many bucks yielding such a little bang. Economic Reality-Check. Education is this country ---- public and private, elementary, secondary, and postsecondary - is a mammoth $331 billion per year enterprise employing 7 million persons, of whom 3.4 million are teachers. $269 billion is spent each year on public education. Public elementary and secondary education costs the taxpayers $183 billion, or more than a billion dollars each day of the average 180-day school year. Perhaps, like some of our dismal education results, these numbers are of a magnitude too difficult to grasp readily. But business must make the effort, and make it independently, with its own experts, if it is to provide the economic reality-check. TM LEXIS·NEXIS® LEXIS-NEXIS® LEXIS-NEXIS® Services of Mead Data Central, Inc. Recyclable PAGE 5 1990 The Heritage Foundation, April 28, 1990 The current public K-12 per-pupil expenditure is estimated to be $4,806, an amount that has increased 31 percent in the past decade after adjustment for inflation. Our per capita expense for precollegiate public education is second only to Switzerland among the world's industrialized nations. In contrast to our $4,806 per student spent in the public schools, American private schools spend a median amount of $900 per student at the elementary level, and $1,500 at the secondary level, a most important point to which I shall be returning, and one that must certainly pique the curiosity of any business person with the slightest interest in benchmarking for quality and cost-effectiveness. Competition Absent. I think you would agree that the business value most conspicuous by its absence in business dealings with the education establishment is the value of free market competition, to my thinking the most "American" of all business values. Why is this? Why this abandonment of principle? - especially when we know the dangers of monopoly arrangements, such as the artificial (and limitless) pricing levels that result when you have, as we do in public education, a captive demand side (glaringly so in an urban center like Chicago, with 70 percent of its public schoolers coming from poverty-level households), a captive demand side coupled with a supply side artificially restricted by labor contracts and state teacher credential requirements. Under these conditions the sky is the limit for spending or, judging from the spending plans now on the establishment's drawing board, perhaps the limit is outer space, which is another way of saying monopolies know no limits. Why isn't business out in front, insisting that market and market-like constraints be built into public education as a condition for fiscal support? Why isn't business out on the point in every state capital, leading the advocacy effort for alternative teacher certification, for provatization, for deregulation, for genuine accountability legislation, and for the ultimate form of accountability - parental choice of public or private education underwritten by vouchers, tuition tax credits or tax rebates? That is the kind of public policy leadership, of systemic intervention, where business should be taking the lead as the one and only institutional player with the clout and the self-interest to provide the economic reality-check I've been talking about, without which we may as well resign ourselves to an economic hemophilia that's only just begun. Is American business, big business especially, on the verge of succumbing to what Milton Friedman and others have been warning us about for some time now, that is, the acceptance of the socialist view that political mechanisms, not market mechanisms, are the appropriate way to determine the allocation of scarce resources to alternative uses? It seems to me that is where business, wittingly or not, is heading, and not just on the education issue -- ironically, at a time when the socialist non-solution is being rejected en masse around the globe. Gray World. If any public policy area demonstrates the bankruptcy of an unprincipled "pragmatism" as a guiding philosophy, that area is education. I have heard top business lobbyists explain away their capitulation to education-establishment lobbyists as "what happens when you live in a world of gray. Those business lobbyists are dead wrong. Their world may seem gray to them, but it is very much a black-and-white (or perhaps, green) world to their TM LEXIS:NEXIS® LEXIS-NEXIS® LEXIS-NEXIS® Services of Mead Data Central, Inc. Recyclable PAGE 6 1990 The Heritage Foundation, April 28, 1990 counterparts in the establishment. If I've learned anything working with the Illinois General Assembly and studying what passes for school reform in this country, it is that the establishment, especially the unions, never lose. They never lose, certainly not here in Illinois where -- our landmark school-reform act notwithstanding -- after receiving $480 million new tax dollars statewide for public elementary and secondary education in the current 1990 fiscal year, a 15 percent increase over last year, the establishment is back, targeting our wallets for new tax revenues of anywhere from $500 million to $2 billion. In the face of these escalating demands, the business community -- in Illinois as elsewhere - doesn't say a word. It just keeps signing up its chief executives for one blue ribbon committee after another, where all too often their cooperation shades imperceptibly but predictably into co-option. Why doesn't business confront the establishment with the research findings of Walberg, Hanushek, Hood, Coleman and others who tell us, for example, that "the available evidence suggests that there is no relationship between expenditures and achievement of students, and that such traditional remedies as reducing class size or hiring better trained teachers are unlikely to improve matters"? Dangerous Metaphor. As someone who has been developing business-education partnerships since before they became fashionable in the early eighties (I ran the college relations operation at Illinois Bell), I have reluctantly -- very reluctantly -- concluded that the once useful "partnership" metaphor has seen its day and may in fact be dangerous if taken literally, especially when applied to public education. The partnership metaphor, with its implied equality, pretentiously blurs an important distinction in the relationship between educators and the public that employs them, namely, that public education is an agent of the general public. Its leaders are answerable to the taxpayers for the human and financial resources entrusted to them. Our democracy gets into trouble when this role relationship is muddled or reversed. When educational leadership becomes a closed society - as education seems to have become, at least in some quarters - when educational leadership becomes an exclusive, politicized society whose dominant values too often appear to be power, position, and perks, it is time for glasnost, time for openness, time for inclusion, time - to the extent that this is necessary -- to reclaim and reconceptualize the largely failed monopoly that is American public education. As a business person and as a teacher of teachers, I have no doubt whatsoever that this realignment of the terms of the relationship between education and the general taxpaying public can be accomplished amicably, without sacrificing either collegiality or cooperation. Earlier I mentioned alternative teacher certification, accountability, privatization, and other market-related education policy areas where, in my considered judgment, American business leadership can and must provide an economic reality-check. But the most important area, one where we have an exciting confluence of the values of equity and sound economics, an area where we are seeing a sea change in public attitudes, is choice --- parental choice in education. What business does with the choice issue will be the litmus test of its commitment to the market principles it professes. We know from the August 1989 Gallup poll that, nationally, 60 percent of all respondents and 67 percent of nonwhite respondents favor allowing students and their parents to choose which public schools the students attend, regardless TM LEXIS·NEXIS® LEXIS-NEXIS® LEXIS-NEXIS® Services of Mead Data Central, Inc. Recyclable PAGE 7 1990 The Heritage Foundation, April 28, 1990 of where they live. Similar results are reported in recent surveys by the Minnesota Education Association and by the Minnesota Business Partnership. A 1985 study by the Chicago Panel on Public School Policy and Finance told us that 69 percent of parents with children attending the city's public schools would enroll their children in private schools, if they could afford it. We know from recent newspaper reports that numerous Chicago political, civic, and educational leaders ---- minority and majority leaders alike -- send their children to private schools of choice. And, what is perhaps the best-informed of all endorsements, 46 percent of the children of Chicago public school teachers who live in the city attend private schools, as compared with only 22 percent of all school-age children in Chicago. Double Standard. Obviously, many of those with the purchasing power, those with the ability to pay both taxes and private school tuition, exercise their choice option with no residual guilt about having abandoned the public school system, though some of them will not hesitate to use this self-serving "abandonment" argument to deny the same choice option to the 70 percent of poverty-level parents whose children constitute a $2.3 billion captive market for Chicago public education. Many of those who would deny choice to the poor are the most vocal proponents of "parental empowerment" and "equity." Excuse me for thinking that this whole situation, this double standard, just reeks with inconsistency, with cynicism, with contemptuous condescension, and with an insulting and ultimately disabling paternalism. Some business leaders, particularly those affiliated with the City Club of Chicago, understand the dimensions of equity and economics surrounding the parental choice issue. They have taken note of the fact that we have been overlooking a success story right under our noses: the 448 private elementary and secondary schools (religious, independent, and proprietary) serving 125,237 youngster, nearly one out of four students in Chicago. In our inner city areas meeting federal poverty guidelines, for example, 135 Catholic schools serve -- quietly and effectively, year in and year out - more than 42,000 students, of whom 80 percent are minorities and 40 percent are non-Catholics. Their modest tuition costs average $700 per elementary and $1,700 per high school student, compared with $4,800 per student (K-12 combined) in the public schools. For business leaders concerned with "what works," with benchmarks for quality and cost-effectiveness, the models are right here under our noses. Studying Success. Equity and economic responsibility demand that we no longer pretend these exemplary, cost-effective schools do not exist. It is time for business leadership to start studying the inner city success models, the benchmarks right in their own backyards, rather than the deficit models to which they have been misdirecting way too much of their attention. Not long ago even William Bennett referredsotto voce to vouchers, preferring not to use the sometimes inflammatory "V word," as he termed it. Without pausing to consider why voucher talk has suddenly become respectable, why there is an unprecedented openness on the part of former voucher opponents to at least consider the merits of vouchers, tuition tax credits, and tax rebate proposals, let me talk about how business can capitalize on the present opportunity for discussing these alternatives publicly, at room temperature. TM LEXIS:NEXIS® LEXIS-NEXIS® LEXIS-NEXIS® Services of Mead Data Central, Inc. Recyclable PAGE 8 1990 The Heritage Foundation, April 28, 1990 When WE started the school reform movement, WE opened a Pandora's Box. Some of yesterday's reformers, now into a new orthodoxy, seem closed to those of us who would keep extending the frontiers, especially by pursuing the implications of contextual reform, that is, reform of the fiscal environment in which education functions. We want to challenge some bedrock ideological assumptions, such as the conventional wisdom that "public education" forever means subsidizing the producers of education, and that it could never mean empowering (with vouchers or their equivalents) the consumers of education, thus enabling them to choose whatever education -- public or private -- they, the consumers, want. Empowering Families. Starting with poverty-level families in urban school districts, we would redistribute the redistribution, bypassing the education producers altogether, and empowering families directly. We would expand upon the new and unprecedented Milwaukee voucher plan of our respected colleague, State Representative Annette "Polly" Williams. Where approaches such as tax credits or rebates are more appropriate, we would champion such approaches. All this would be done primarily in the name of equity, parental empowerment, and economic cost-effectiveness, not in the name of public school improvement, though that is a likely secondary consequence, given the competitive energies that would be released. Can the public schools be reformed? Our answer is an extremely cautious "yes," provided we continue the reforms already under way, and -- most important -- provided we bring about a "paradigm shift" in how we conceptualize "public education, a shift from subsidizing education producers to empowering education consumers, in open and competitive markets. It is absolutely incomprehensible that this essential reform ingredient -- parental choice in competitive markets was omitted as a national goal coming out of the President's and Governors' Education Summit. To remedy this omission, the City Club of Chicago, one of Chicago's oldest business-civic organizations, has formed a new stand-alone division to focus on the equity and economic issues I have been discussing, a division that will help to ensure that business disciplines and values are factored into education policy decisions. The new City Club division is called TEACH America, the "TEACH" being an acronym for Taxpayers for Educational Accountability and Choice. TEACH America will be a coalition, a broad-based, nationally-networked, action-oriented, bipartisan, multi-ethnic, grassroots coalition of business, parent, community, taxpayer, private education, and other groups and individuals committed to bringing about, among other important reform measures, the paradigm shift toward direct subsidy of education consumers that I've been describing. As president of TEACH America, I hope that you will get behind TEACH America as we translate principle into public policy in the name of liberty and justice. For all. Nothing written here is to be construed as necessarily reflecting the views of The Heritage Foundation or as an attempt to aid or hinder the passage of any bill before Congress. LEXIS:NEXIS® LEXIS-NEXIS® LEXIS·NEXIS Services of Mead Data Central, Inc. Recyclable THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION RECORD ON STUDENT AID During the Bush Administration: -- The number of students receiving aid through the Education Department's major programs has not decreased. Over 6.1 million individuals are receiving aid in 1992; The amount of aid made available through Federal funds increased from $18.1 billion in 1989 to $22.1 billion currently estimated for 1992, an increase of 22 percent. Federal spending increased from $10.1 billion in 1989. to $11.8 billion for 1992, an increase of 16 percent. For Pell grants, the largest discretionary spending program, the Administration requested $6.6 billion for 1993, the largest amount ever requested or appropriated in any year. One priority of the Bush Administration's proposals for student aid programs this year was restoring the Integrity of the programs and reducing defaults, in part by eliminating hundreds of schools that entice students into shoddy programs, just to get their Federal funds. -- Eliminating these schools -- primarily abusive proprietary schools which have a 45 percent default rate - means that some thousands of students would not be enrolled in shoddy programs; instead, they would be protected from borrowing money they cannot repay, defaulting and ruining their credit ratings and career opportunities. In the recently enacted Higher Education Act, the Democrat controlled Congress agreed with the Administration on this priority, passing many of Its recommendations to reduce abuse and defaults. The record is clear. The Bush Administration has -- improved the quality and integrity of student aid programs, -- increased spending more than ever before, -- provided more ald than ever before. THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION RECORD ON STUDENT AID During the Bush Administration: -- The number of students receiving aid through the Education Department's major programs has not decreased. Over 6.1 million individuals are receiving aid in 1992; The amount of aid made available through Federal funds increased from $18.1 billion in 1989 to $22.1 billion currently estimated for 1992, an increase of 22 percent. Federal spending increased from $10.1 billion In 1989. to $11.8 billion for 1992, an increase of 16 percent. For Pell grants, the largest discretionary spending program, the Administration requested $6.6 billion for 1993, the largest amount ever requested or appropriated in any year. One priority of the Bush Administration's proposals for student aid programs this year was restoring the Integrity of the programs and reducing defaults, in part by eliminating hundreds of schools that entice students into shoddy programs, just to get their Federal funds. - Eliminating these schools -- primarily abusive proprietary schools which have a 45 percent default rate - means that some thousands of students would not be enrolled in shoddy programs; instead, they would be protected from borrowing money they cannot repay, defaulting and ruining their credit ratings and career opportunities. In the recently enacted Higher Education Act, the Democrat controlled Congress agreed with the Administration on this priority, passing many of Its recommendations to reduce abuse and defaults. The record is clear. The Bush Administration has -- improved the quality and integrity of student aid programs, : increased spending more than ever before, -- provided more ald than ever before. Administration of George Bush, 1991 / Sept. 3 its And tonight, I'm told that right here at yourselves, "In our communities, do we Lewiston High, a new school year begins value education and intellect? In the work- for adults learning how to read, studying for ing world, do we reward employees who go if it their GED, living proof that it is never too back to school, who learn new skills?" late to learn. Every member of the community must play and So far, I've spoken about our schools, a role in this revolution. l-class about the revolution in American education that must take place within these walls. But And so parents, don't be a stranger to the revolution can neither begin nor end your child's school. Visit the classroom. Talk here. Let me use a "word problem" to to the principal. Get to know those teach- more social show you why. Assume that a child goes to ers. Make it your business to find out school from kindergarten to 12th grade, whether your child's school is drug-free. coun- CHECKER FINN'S SNAT, and never misses a day. Subtract summers And talk to your school board about school and weekends, all the hours before and choice, about the curriculum, about ways to worry after school. How much time do our chil- erican put your schools to use year round. But you dren spend in classrooms? don't have to have kids in school to have a ebody The answer may surprise you. It is 9 per- But stake in what happens in the classroom. For cent; one-eleventh of their time. They to the older folks among us, don't complain spend the rest of their lives elsewhere, at do about "kids today" or that the neighbor- home, playing with friends, or in some too hood "isn't what it used to be." Get active shopping mall. from in the community. Go into your schools. See But what happens in that 91 percent makes all the difference in the world. We what you can do to help some kid or help wor- cannot blame the schools alone for that your community. what dismal decline in SAT verbal scores. Your And the same goes for local business lead- Grad- teachers are working hard. The drop shows ers. Get involved, not just in word but in Our that we haven't taken the time to read to deed. Think of it as community service, our kids, to talk with them, to teach them giving something back to this wonderful the art of communication, how to think, community, to the community your compa- par- how to write, how to speak clearly. ny calls home. Or, think of it in terms of What happens at home really matters. just plain, sound business cultivating the Funda- And when our kids come home from school, kind of future employees your company Maine do they pick up a book or do they sit glued needs in order to keep ahead. But above all, to the tube watching music videos? Parents: act. Do something. Enlist in this great cru- Don't make the mistake of thinking your sade. And that really is the idea behind goals kids only learn from 9 a.m. to 3 p.m. You 2000, what we call America 2000 communities, are, and always will be, their first teachers. school States, cities, and towns that recognize the Here's another shocking number. Chil- adult school as the living center of the communi- dren in one study said the average parent erican ty. spends just 15 minutes a day, 15 minutes, in vio- conversation with them. Most people spend Today, the revolution has begun, in Colo- that much time on coffee break. rado, Oregon, in Tulsa and in Memphis. he ele- The freshmen here today may think And today I'm proud to say, right here in And they're a bit old to have their homework Lewiston and in every corner of the State new checked. And maybe as parents, certainly of Maine, it's begun. Together, we must a this President will admit, we can't keep up ignite a renaissance in American education, ongress with the latest in computer technology. But a revolution that will make this Nation eschool that doesn't mean we can't help. The Class every bit the leader in the century ahead drugs. of '95 is old enough to sit down, to watch that it has been since 1776. I the evening news, talk with their parents Once again, my heartfelt thanks to you the about what's going on in the world, to take for this warm welcome, as all across this at th interests, opinions, and ideas seriously. country we begin another school year. And oth But the future of American education de- may God bless the United States of Amer- in lead. pends on more than what happens in the ica. classroom or around the kitchen table. Ask Thank you very, very much. 1217 I THE white house washington Jennifer: Ger. Embassy called 1980- 5,355 commercial banks, incl. S&L (distinction is 20 blurred.) 1991. 3,960 incl. 25 S&L END OF 1781 159 COMMERCIAL BANKS 11 CHARTER BANICS 148 TRUST + LOANS Financial Sectn Policy Dept of Finance in OHowa SEN. DOMENICI Japan desk - economic section - Fulianne Vance OFFECE 224-6621 CHARLES GENTRY - AA #Banks la. 80's crystal Drive Anligh n 703/979-1668 1980 - total 86 banks, MINORITY STAFF BUDGET COMMUTEE Y** Bill Citibanks 13 II 1991 Stall Dir. 6. William Hoagland trust bants 7 1 224-0769 Fairfay Station VA regional 63 64 h 703/239- long-term credit 3 3 2553 chief Economist 224-0566 1 Peter Taylor Bethesda, MD source Bank of Japan - 3 1990 - 40.7 million households 59.2% of households own homes 24.1 million own house Kazij 3469479 - National census - THE WHITE house WASHINGTON more info, call: Uli Nitzschke 298-4230 statistical info is available -on duty until 1pm. - MANUFACTURING PRODUCTIVITY INDEXES (1947-1992) year index % growth 1947 21.2 1948 22 3.77 1949 20.8 -5.45 1950 24.2 16.35 years % growth 1951 26.1 7.85 1980-1989 38.19 1952 27.2 4.21 1982-1992 +3300 +43.08 1953 29.6 8.82 1954 27.7 -6.42 1955 31.3 13.00 1956 32.5 3.83 1957 32.9 1.23 1958 30.6 -6.99 1959 34.5 12.75 1960 35.2 2.03 1961 35.3 0.28 1962 38.4 8.78 1963 40.7 5.99 1964 43.5 6.88 1965 48.2 10.80 1966 52.6 9.13 1967 53.6 1.90 1968 56.6 5.60 1969 59.1 4.42 1970 56.4 -4.57 1971 57.3 1.60 1972 63.3 10.47 1973 68.9 8.85 1974 67.9 -1.45 1975 61.1 -10.01 1976 67.4 10.31 1977 73.3 8.75 77 7/23.3 3.3/ = 2.81 1978 77.8 2.4% 6.14 77-82 1979 80.9 3.98 1980 78.8 -2.60 1981 80.3 882-92 for 82-92 1.90 1982 76.6 1983 80.9 1984 89.3 13.9% annur-4.61 INCR 10.38 1985 91.6 1986 94.3 1987 100 43% IN PRODUCT 2.58 2.95 6.04 1988 105.8 1989 108.9 INCR 5.80 2.93 1990 109.9 0.92 1991 107.5 -2.18 1992 109.6 1.95 SOURCE: The Fed NOTE: The index for 1992 is that for June of 1992. April 109 May 109.8 June 109.6 decade % growth % annual growth rate 1947-1949 -1.89 -0.94 1950-1959 42.56 4.02 1960-1969 67.90 5.93 1970-1979 43.44 4.1 1980-1989 38.20 3.66 1990-1992 -0.27 -0.13 3 ISEP 09 '92 09:46AM NAR P.2/2 202-383-1016 USING AFFORDABILITY Photo Copy Preservation TABLE 22 HOUSING AFFORDABILITY FOR THE UNITED STATES, 1970 - 1990 Median-Priced Existing Monthly Payment Median Mortgage P&I as % Family Qualifying Affordability Indexes Single-Family Year Home Rate" Income Income Income** Composite Fixed ARM Payment $23,000 $140 17.0% $ 9,867 $ 6,697 147.3 147.3 147.3 1970 8.35% 141 16.5 6,770 151.9 151.9 151.9 1971 7.67 10,285 24,800 11,116 7,183 154.8 154.8 154.8 1972 752 150 16.2 26,700 147.9 147.9 147.9 8.01 170 16.9 12,051 8,151 1973 28,900 9.02 12,902 9,905 130.3 130.3 130.3 32,000 206 19.2 1974 9.21 232 20.2 11,112 1235 123.5 1235 13,719 1975 35,300 248 19.9 14,958 11,888 125.8 125.8 125.8 1976 38,100 9.11 277 20.7 13,279 120.6 120.6 120.6 1977 9.02 16,010 42,900 9.58 230 17,640 15,834 111.4 111.4 111.4 22.4 1978 48,700 19,680 20,240 97.2. 97.2 97.2 10.92 422 25.7 1979 55,700 12.95 549 31.3 26,328 79.9 79.9 79.9 21,023 1980 62,200 677 36.3 32,485 68.9 68.9 68.9 15.12 22,388 1981 66,400 15.38 23,433 33,713 69.5 69.4 69.7 67,800 702 35.9 1982 616 30.1 29,546 83.2 82.0 85.6 1983 12.85 24,580 70,300 12.49 618 26,433 29,650 89.1 84.6 92.1 28.2 1984 72,400 27,735 29,243 94.8 89.6 100.6 609 26.2 1985 75,500 11.74 10.25 563 23.0 29,458 27,047 108.9 105.7 116.3 1986 80,300 9.28 565 21.9 30,970 27,113 114.2 107.6 122.4 1987 85,600 9.31 32,191 28,360 113.5 103.6 122.0 89,300 591 22.0 1988 10.11 660 23.1 34,213 31,662 108.1 103.6 114.3 1989 93,100 10.04 673 35,581 32,286 110.2 107.2 119.1 22.7 1990 95,500 Monthly 13.67% $21,137 $28,701 73.6 73.6 73.6 $598 33.9% 1981: Jan $64,500 14.16 614 34.7 21,251 29,477 72.1 72.1 72.1 Feb 64,100 14.38 626 35.2 21,364 30,047 71.1 71.1 71.1 Mar 64,400 14.47 21,478 30,646 70.1 70.1 70.1 65,300 638 35.7 Apr 14.66 656 36.5 21,592 31,501 68.5 685 685 May 66,300 680 21,706 32,622 66.5 66.5 66.5 14.88 37.6 Jun 67,700 15.28 21,819 33,355 65.4 65.4 65.4 695 38.2 Jul 67,500 15.54 712 39.0 21,933 34,198 64.1 64.1 64.1 Aug 68,100 719 39.1 22,047 34,504 63.9 63.9 63.9 Sep 67,100 15.93 22.161 34,102 65.0 65.0 65.0 66,000 16.01 710 38.5 Oct 725 39.1 22,274 34,806 64.0 64.0 64.0 Nov 65,900 16.38 16.04 718 385 34,474 64.9 64.9 64.9 22,388 Dec 66,600 $22,475 $34,124 65.9 65.9 65.9 15.92% $711 38.0% 1982: Jan $66,400 66.4 66.4 15.73 708 37.7 22,562 33,988 66.4 Feb 66,900 706 37.4 22.649 33,873 66.9 65.9 66.9 Mar 67,000 15.65 16.00 722 22,736 34,650 65.6 65.6 65.6 38.1 Apr 67,100 67,800 734 38.6 22,823 35,242 64.8 64.8 64.8 May 16.11 727 38.1 34,893 65.7 65.7 65.7 15.56 22,910 Jun 69,400 22,998 34,707 66.3 66.2 66.3 Jul 15.52 723 37.7 69,200 665 66.3 66.8 15.59 723 37.6 23,085 34,706 Aug 68,900 Sep 67,300 15.27 23,172 33,236 69.7 69.4 70.1 692 35.9 675 32,380 71.8 71.2 72.8 Oct 14.95 34.8 23,259 66,900 67,700 654 33.6 23,346 31,401 74.3 74.1 74.8 Nov 14.29 641 32.8 30,609 76.2 75.9 76.9 Dec 67,800 13.95 23,433 HAI 92 121.2 (composite) 37 1991 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS 10:42 P02 SETTING THE RECORD STRAIGHT "Facts About the 1980s U.S. SENATE BUDGET COMMITTEE U.S. Senator Pete Domenici Ranking Republican Member Prepared by Minority Staff July 1992 224-3121 Pete V. Domenici New Mexico United States Senator Washington, D.C. Dear Colleague: For the past several months, Democratic members of the Congress have relentlessly tried to define the past decade as a time of abject failure. Recently, however, we have also seen some of these same critics attempt to recast themselves in a Republican image. By denying the successes of the 1980s under Republican leadership, they hope to lay claim to the principles that helped create those successes - Republican principles such as opportunity, hard work, jobs, and most importantly economic growth, the catalyst for rising national prosperity. No matter how hard revisionists attempt to cloud recollections, the historical record remains intact the 1980s under Republican leadership was a decade of growth and rising prosperity. And, contrary to some assertions, it was also a period in which government met domestic needs. This document was prepared at my request by the Republican staff of the U.S. Senate Budget Committee. It presents in 8 succinct fashion the major issues of the 1980s from the economy to the environment. It sets the record straight. "SETTING THE RECORD STRAIGHT." Economic Growth Through the Decade ECONOMY TRUE OR FALSE: The U.S. economy ended the past decade significantly stronger than it began the decade. The Decade of the 1980s didn' t leave as any better The 1980s under Republican leadership off - FALSE! included the longest peace-time expansion in U.S. history, lasting 7-1/2 years. No matter how many times they say it, it Marry Americans, especially the younger just wort wash. The record shows that the generation, may not recall the trauma of 18% 1980s included the longest peace-time inflation and interest rates as high as 21% - expansion in U.S. history, producing 19 a product of the dismal economic million new jobs. performance of the late 1970s. Since the start of the expansion in late During the Bush Administration, inflation 1982, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) averaged 4.5%, less than half the inflation has risen $1.1 trillion, adding nearly one-third to the size of our economy. during the Carter years. Currently, inflation has fallen to roughly 3% The rise in U.S. GDP was greater than the and, except for a 1.1% rate in 1986, inflation total level of GDP in Germany. Interest and is now the lowest in a quarter of a century. inflation rates have been cut by half. Since 1986, the U.S. export sector has been Mortgage rates are now in the 8% range, expanding at a record pace, making us the half the rate President Reagan encountered largest exporter in the world. in the first year he took office. For people this has meant: Thanks to low interest rates, more people can afford to own a home now than at any real per-capita income and the proportion of the population with jobs at new highs by time since 1973. the end of the decade, During the late 1970s, taxpayers found themselves paying higher taxes, not because average family income reached $42,652 in they were wealthier, but because inflation 1990, $15,000 more than before the pushed them into higher tax brackets. This expansion began, "inflation tax" helped raise income taxes from 7.8% of GDP in 1976 to 9.6% in 1981, an $81 real per capita income rose 15.7%, billion tax burden increase. the unemployment rate reached a 16-year During the 1980s, this "inflation tax was low of 5.3% from a high of 10.7%, terminated Revenues as a share of GDP fell back to historical levels. the misery index - the sum of inflation and unemployment - down to 10.4 today The 1970s malaise associated with out-of- from 19.6 in 1980, control inflation, Interest rates, and taxes, was replaced in the 1980s with an The poverty rate down to 121% from 13.7%. environment that allowed people to plan their lives and focus on the future with confidence. "SETTING THE RECORD STRAIGHT Economic Growth Brought New Jobs JOBS Economic growth in the Reagan/Bush TRUE OR FALSE: era has meant jobs! Since the expansion began more new jobs were The economic well-being created in the U.S. than in all the other major of the U.S. is declining. industrial countries and the rest of Western - FALSE! Europe combined. Since the beginning of the 1980s expansion, 19 million new jobs have been Contrary to assertions that U.S. well-being created. Today, 117.6 million Americans go is falling, during the Bush Administration real to work every morning, 18% more than 10 GDP per capita - the broadest measure of U.S. strength - has been the highest in the years ago. world and the highest in U.S. history. The share of the working-age population with jobs during the Bush Administration has U.S. GDP per capita was 1st among averaged 62.3%, the highest in U.S. history. countries in 1980 and is 1st in 1990. GDP per capita of $16,231 in Germany and The employment-population ratio for Black $17,571 in Japan in 1990 remains well below Americans during the Bush Administration America's $21,931. averaged a record 55.7%, up significantly from 52.8% during the Carter years. The level of GDP per capita during the Bush Administration is higher than any other Job growth was wide spread. Between previous Administration - $3,350 more than 1982 and 1991, employment grew by more during the Carter Administration. than 15% in over half the states and by more TRUE OR FALSE: than 5% in 45 states. All major demographic groups shared in The econcey is in the improvement in job opportunities that recession and is getting resulted from economic growth. Between worse. FALSEI 1982 and 1991, employment of Blacks was up 29%, and Hispanics, a larger 52%. The unemployment rate during the Bush The 1990 recession, marked by two Administration has averaged 6.1%, the lowest quarters of GDP decline, has been followed of any Administration back to Nixon. In by 4 straight quarters of positive growth. The comparison, unemployment averaged 6.5% economy is now back to its previous peak, during the deteriorating Carter years and making this recession one of the shallowest reached a peak of 10.7% in 1982 just as the on record, as measured by GDP. 1980s expansion got underway. 0 Home construction has risen 38% since its Job prospects are good in the U.S. relative trough point at the beginning of 1991. to other countries because the unemployment rate is relatively low. The @ 2 Expanding export production has average U.S. unemployment rate during the accounted for nearly two-thirds of economic 1980s was the sixth lowest in the world. growth over the last 4 quarters. The U.S. job market is very dynamic. The 3 As a result of increased international number of people who began new jobs was competitiveness, U.S. exports during the significantly larger than the net change in Bush Administration have grown by more employment. Between 1987-89, 41.5 million than one-quarter in just a little over 3 years. persons went from not having a job in one We have become, once again, the largest month to have a job in the following month. exporting nation in the world. "SETTING THE RECORD STRAIGHT." Quality Jobs for Americans RICH VS. POOR The 1980s provided economic TRUE OR FALSE: opportunity for all income levels, not just the wealthy. "The rich got richer, the poor got poorer during the Bush/Reagan years. FALSE! The expansion helped raise the lowest incomes, boosting families According to some assertions, 60% of the into higher income brackets. income gains went to the richest 1% of the Tracking the income histories of population between 1977 and 1989. But as individual families shows that upward the Congressional Budget Office, the 77 income mobility was the norm. Treasury, and a recent Urban Institute study confirm, that just wrong. 86 1/2% Of the people making up the lowest Including the Carter years in the 1977-89 study fifth of the income distribution in the data hurts all income levels and is most late 1970s, more than half moved out devastating to the poorest fifth of families. URBAN 47% of the lowest fifth and up the income But incomes turned the corner during the ladder over the next 10 years. Bush/Reagan years; incomes increased for Linst each and every income level. While high 79 income groups did increase their means The lower end of the income during the 1980s expansion, so did all other distribution displayed the most income levels. upward mobility. More people moved up the income ladder from the bottom The view that only the rich gained ignores two-fifths than from the next higher the significant income mobility of families, two-fifths. both up for people at the bottom and down for people at the top. The middle class gained. During When upward mobility is taken into the expansion, the middle class account, families who started in the bottom shrank because more of them moved of the income distribution in 1977 saw their above the $50,000 threshold and into incomes rise T7% over the next nine years. the high-income groups - they weren't In contrast, those in the top one-fifth in 1977 saw their incomes rise only 5%. moving down. A recent study by the Urban Institute Upward household income mobility concluded: is an American strength not a *When one follows individuals rather than statistical weakness. groups defined by income, one finds that, on average, the rich got a little richer and the poor got much richer." *This pattern, however, may be surprising to the general public, which has been led to believe that the poor were literally getting poorer over the last decade or two, and that the incomes of the rich were skyrocketing. That is simply not true." "SETTING THE RECORD STRAIGHT." Reducing Taxes Across the Board TAXES The rich bear a greater share of the TRUE OR FALSE: cost of federal government than they did before the 1980s tax changes went "The Republican tax into effect. policies of the 1980s and 1990s were key to raising the tax threshold and Families in the top 20% of the income lowering taxes on lower- distribution pay 75% of all income taxes - an income families." - TRUE! increase of 10% since 1980. The very rich, those in the top 1% of the income distribution, saw their share of the Prior to tax law changes enacted in the income tax burden rise 65% during the 1980s, inflation pushed people into higher tax Reagan/Bush years. brackets, and reduced the value of the standard deduction and the personal Only 1.1% of total income taxes collected exemption until they were almost come from families in the lowest 40% of the meaningless. income distribution. As a result of Republican tax policies, the share of income The eroding standard deduction and taxes paid by families in this group declined personal exemption didn't mean too much to 70% since 1980! the wealthy - but it meant a lot to those low- and middle-income families struggling to make ends meet We started the 1980s with 16 individual income tax brackets and a top Large increases in the standard deduction individual rate of 70% - now there are and indexing the personal exemption took three brackets and a top rate of 31%. altogether nearly six million families off the tax rolls. If 1980 tax policy were still in effect, a head Between 1977 and 1993, the number of of household with three dependents and families receiving the Earned Income Tax $40,000 in income would have paid $3,900 Credit rose by 143% and the average credit more in federal income taxes than they do rose more than 300%. now under current law. TRUE OR FALSE: Under 1980 tax policy, this hypothetical family could claim four personal exemptions It *Republicans were totalling to $4,000. Under current tax policy, responsible for Social this family can claim exemptions worth Security payroll tax $9,200, an increase of 130%. increases in the 1980s. - FALSE! This family pays a marginal tax rate of 15% now. If 1980 law were still in effect, they'd pay a marginal rate of 42%. O In 1977, President Carter and the Democratic Congress approved five payroll tax increases which occurred in the 1980s. O Prior to the Carter Administration, the payroll tax rate for workers was scheduled to hit 6.45% in 1990. But due to the Carter tax increases, the payroll tax rate reached 7.65% in 1990, a 19% tax rate hike. "SETTING THE RECORD STRAIGHT." Investing in Our Children CHILDREN TRUE OR FALSE: Funding for programs designed to assist our nation's children has increased. with the emphasis on During the 1980s, funding health. nutrition, education and social for programs designed to assist children was services. reduced. FALSE! The problems facing our children are not the result of diminished Federal spending. President Bush's 1993 budget request for children's programs reflects an increase of 66% since 1989, his first year in office. Total Over the past 10 years, federal spending on low-income programs, the majority of funding for programs assisting children was recommended at a level of $100 billion for which is targeted toward assisting children, has grown from $80 billion to $153 billion. 1993. The Women, Infants and Children special Despite more government spending, the supplemental food program (WIC), renowned problems facing children have escalated as as one of the federal government's most the stability of the family unit has cost-effective, has increased its participation deteriorated. of mothers and infants in the program by 275% since 1980; WIC funding grew 347% The poverty rate for children in married- from 1980 through 1992, with the President couple families in 1990 was 8.9%; the poverty rate for children in families with only a female requesting an additional $240 million for head of household was 47.2%. 1993, bringing the annual program cost to $2.8 billion. Children who live in persistent poverty, the Investment in early childhood education, homeless, children growing up in through Head Start, has demonstrated dysfunctional families with abuse or neglect, and children having children are all "at risk dramatic savings in averted costs associated of not becoming healthy, productive adults. with special education, crime and Income support One-parent families have grown, from 3.8 million in 1970 (129 percent of all families) Funding for Head Start has grown from to 9.7 million in 1990 (28.1 percent of all $735 million in 1980 to $2.2 billion in 1992 - a 200% increase. For 1993, President Bush families). recommended an additional $600 million for the program - an unprecedented 27% one- Twenty-four percent of American children lived with their mothers only in 1990, up from year increase. 11.5 percent in 1970. Under the President's budget, 779,206 children will receive a year of Head Start before entering grammar school. "SETTING THE RECORD STRAIGHT." Emphasis on Education EDUCATION TRUE OR FALSE: Continuing federal support of education has been coupled with The President's proposal innovative proposals for education reform. for educational reform, America 2000, is dead in From 1980 to 1991, federal support for the water sínce Congress education increased 59%, from $34.3 billion has refused to act." - to $54.6 billion. FALSE! Federal support for education extends beyond those amounts, to include post- While Congress appropriated $100 million secondary education loans. last year for implementation of America 2000, The total volume of guaranteed student it was unable to pass authorizing legislation loans grew from $4.6 billion in 1980 to $11.5 for education reform. billion in 1991 - an increase of almost 150%. Despite the inability of Congress to pass Federal support for elementary and the Presidents proposal, 43 states and more secondary education increased from $16 than 1,100 communities have, on their own, billion in 1980 to $24.4 billion in 1991, a 53% initiated America 2000 projects, in search of innovative ways of achieving the national increase over those years. education goals adopted by the governors Federal support for education also comes and the President in 1989. indirectly through deductions allowed for state and local taxes-major sources of local State and local projects include offering education funding-on federal income tax parental choice of schools, allowing returns. Federal tax deductions that help pay increased flexibility for teachers and for state funded education are estimated to administrators, retraining teachers to have increased over 36% from 1980 to 1991, incorporate higher academic standards for from $13.3 billion to $18.1 billion. students, and developing new, break-the- mold schools. Also during the 1980s, expenditures per student in public elementary and secondary Examples: schools rose from $2,502 to $5,266-an Over 86 of Maine's 184 communities increase of 110%. have become Maine 2000 communities. The U.S. sends 60% of its children to study higher education, second only to Canada in Memphis 2000 has over 800 persons out of the world, and well above the 32% rate in working to create a "new America school." Money Germany and 30% in Japan. And 51% of the students are women, providing them more Ohio, Texas, and 12 other states have Magazine opportunities than in Japan (3%) and given state commissioners broad authority to 26% free schools from regulation if they produce Germany (2%). "Why We Still 38% results. During the 1980s, reading proficiency, increased dramatically for 17-year old Minnesota has authorized the creation Live Best minority students. For Black students, those of deregulated charter schools a new Oct 91 achieving reading proficiency increased from independent public school. Similar new 6.7% in 1980 to 25.8% in 1988. For Hispanic programs are being worked on in California, students, the rate increased to 24.3% in 1988 Colorado, Connecticut, and Michigan. from only 14.9% in 1980. "SETTING THE RECORD STRAIGHT:* Delivering Health Care HEALTH CARE American Health Care delivers the best TRUE OR FALSE: medicine in the world. President Bush has The U.S. health care system has fostered presented a comprehensive countless medical breakthroughs and new program to control-costs medical technologies that can prevent and and spread access to treat the most life-threatening diseases. health care. - TRUE! Our diverse and flexible system has dispersed these advances rapidly throughout The Presidents Health Reform Program the country so that millions of Americans builds on the strengths of the U.S. health could benefit, vastly improving our health. care system - consumer choice, innovation, and state-of-the-art medicine - while controlling costs and expanding access. Since 1980: life expectancy has increased from The President's program would cut health costs by $394 billion over 5 years by 73.7 to 75.3 years; eliminating administrative waste and the infant mortality rate has dropped unnecessary paperwork, investing in from 12 to 10.1 per 1000 live births; preventive care, reducing defensive medicine through medical malpractice reform, arming years lost due to premature deaths consumers with information about costs and quality, and encouraging enrollment in cost- have dropped 11%; effective health plans. deaths from heart diseases have dropped from 202 to 166 per 100,000 people, The President's program guarantees access to health insurance for all poor an 18% decline; families through tax credits sufficient to buy deaths from strokes and related a basic health insurance plan ($3,750 for a diseases have dropped from 40.8 to 29.7 per family). Other low and middle income families would get tax relief to partially offset 100,000 people, a 27% decline. the costs of their health insurance. In total, Federal investments in biomedical some 70 million Americans will benefit. research - $9.4 billion in 1993, up from $3.2 billion in 1980 - have led to many of the The program provides insurance security most important discoveries in medicine, such for all Americans by prohibiting "preexisting as discovery of the cause of cystic fibrosis, condition clauses in health insurance and paving the way for dramatic improvements in ensuring workers can keep employer health diagnosis and treatment, and possibly a cure. insurance when changing jobs. Since 1989, President Bush has increased 0 The President has increased investments AIDS research funding by 39% to over $1.2 in preventive health care, particularly for billion, AIDS prevention funding by 29% to children: $621 million, and AIDS. treatment funding by Medicaid has been expanded to ensure care for 240% to $2.5 billion. all poor pregnant women and poor children up to age 19; Spending for childhood immunizations is up by 148% since 1989 to $349 million), a new Healthy Start infant mortality reduction program will target areas of high infant mortality. "SETTING THE RECORD STRAIGHT." Housing: Building an American Dream HOUSING During the past twelve years, a variety TRUE OR FALSE: A of programs has worked to make homeownership opportunities more "During the 1980s, the affordable and more accessible for all Bush-Reagan Administration Americans. cut housing assistance. - FALSE! Through refinancing and mortgage rate reductions, American homeowners have been able to reduce their mortgage payments by as much as $1,500 to $2,000 a year. This In 1990, HUD housing assistance was tremendous savings has helped raise provided to 4.4 million low-income families, homeowner confidence and spending. up from 3.1 million in 1980. This represents a significant 42% increase. The United States has the highest homeownership rate of all major During the 1980s, federal spending for industrialized countries with more than 64% assisted housing increased from $6.3 billion of households owning their own homes. to $15 billion representing an increase of This is higher than the 61% rate in Japan and 138%. There were no budget cuts to housing the 39% rate in Germany. during the 1980s, only substitution of programs to try new approaches such as Between 1980 and 1990, 7.2 million more housing vouchers. families owned their own homes, a 14% HUD has added to the number of increase. households being served at a rate of 80,000 Mortgage rates are now the lowest they to 100,000 a year throughout the 1980s right have been in 19 years, making up to today. homeownership more affordable. President Bush has increased funding to Despite billions of taxpayer dollars devoted help the homeless by 76%, to over $1.1 to low-income housing, some of the worst billion. housing in America is government run. People choose to live on the streets rather The Bush Administration continues to than occupy public housing projects. push for higher funding for its newly created HOPE Homeownership Program. HOPE The Democratic Congress continues to gives low-income families a stake in their fund the same approaches that result in more communities by providing assistance to buy public housing projects being constructed. their public housing units. Ownership is a Nearty 14% of public housing is vacant and stabilizing force in communities and a fundamental building block of prosperity in boarded-up. America. Low-income families need to be The Bush Administration has pushed for part of this opportunity. using the new approach of housing vouchers to provide homeownership opportunities for low-income families. President Bush's most recent budget proposes 2 $1.9 billion increase for housing vouchers - from $758 million to $2.7 billion. This increase would result in nearly 83,000 low-income families receiving housing vouchers. Vouchers are more cost effective than constructing new public housing units, families don't have to wait 7 years for the units to be built, and vouchers allow families more choice. "SETTING THE RECORD STRAIGHT:* Working to Hold Down Deficits TWIN DEFICITS Rebounding U.S. competitiveness and TRUE OR FALSE: strong export growth characterize the "Tax cuts in the 1980s Bush years. led to the rise in the Federal deficit." - FALSE! During the Bush Administration, U.S. exports have risen fully one-quarter to the highest level in U.S. history. Too much Federal spending, not too few taxes, has been the main reason for large Today U.S. exports amount to 11.5% deficits in the 1980s. Over the decade, tax of U.S. output, up from 8.5% at the collections rose 81% Spending had risen 92% - 11% more than taxes. beginning of the 1980s. All major categories of exports gained Federal revenues as a share of GDP during during the Bush years. Exports of the 1980s at 18.9% were higher - not lower industrial supplies increased by 29%, than their average of 18.5% over the previous capital goods by 53%, automotive by two decades. 37%, and consumer goods by 99%. But Federal spending as a share of GDP With exports now at $617.7 billion, the rose to record highs. Over the 1980s U.S. is once again the world's largest spending averaged 23.1% - more than three exporting nation. percentage points higher then the 20% of the previous two decades. v. U.S. export growth has been roughly twice the rate of the other G-7 major The Budget Agreement of 1990 lowered industrial countries during the Bush budget deficits in the 1990s by $500 billion but the agreement stopped short of Administration. controlling entitlement and other mandatory As a result of rising U.S. spending that has accounted for most of the competitiveness, the U.S. trade position rise in outlays in the 1980s. has been brought back into balance. The U.S. trade deficit on goods, Over the next ten years, entitlement and services, and income has shown a $140 other permanent mandatory programs are billion improvement over the past five projected to rise 89% and will account for years culminating in a $1.4 billion seven-eights of all Federal revenues surplus in the first quarter of 1992. collected. President Bush's proposals for controlling mandatory spending have been rejected by the Democratic Congress. @ Presidents Bush and Reagan submitted plans in six out of the eight years since the enactment of the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings law in 1985, that would lead to a balanced budget. Further, Congress has regularly rejected these budgets and three times over the past decade - in 1982, 1986, and 1992 - declined to adopt a constitutional amendment to balance the federal budget! "SETTING THE RECORD STRAIGHT:" Building America, Assisting Local Government IMPROVING AMERICA'S INFRASTRUCTURE, HELPING AMERICA GROW The past ten years have brought an increase in governments' contribution TRUE OR FALSE: toward building America. The plight of America's Contrary to popular impressions, public cities is the result of `A investment in infrastructure has not been Decade of Neglect' by the declining. Total public investment in federal government. intrastructure in the 1980s grew 2.2% FALSE! annually, roughly equal to the growth in the 1950s and greater than growth in the 1970s. Since 1989, under President Bush, federal Federal grants-in-aid to state and spending for infrastructure has increased a local governments has increased from $88 billion in 1982 to a projected nominal average of 6 percent annually, or $182 billion in 1992- an increase of 27% annual real growth. 50 percent during the Bush State and local government investment in Administration alone. infrastructure, which has averaged 70% of all The non-entitlement federal grant public investment over the past 35 years, rose in the 1980s from $46.8 billion to $103.5 programs for state and local governments - such as highways, billion, or 9.2% annually. airports, education, and social services - have expanded strongly Economic growth in the 1980s during the past two years, growing 28.1% from fiscal year 1990 to 1992 provided enormous benefits to state and local governments. Direct federal assistance to cities decreased during the 1980s, but federal assistance to states increased Rising jobs and incomes resulting from the expansion of the 1980s allowed state and proportionately. local revenues to grow from $390 billion in At the same time, state 1980 to $801 billion in 1990. intergovernmental grants to local State and local government expenditures governments rose 94% from 1980 to grew from $363 billion in 1980 to $765 billion 1989. in 1990. r State and local governments expanded services dramatically during the boom of the 1980s, when revenues were plentiful and the caseloads of income security programs were reduced. / State and local employment continued to rise throughout the 1980s. The number of state and local public employees grew at a rate of 14.7 percent as the country's population grew only 9 percent. "SETTING THE RECORD STRAIGHT." Fighting Crime and Drug Abuse CRIME AND DRUGS TRUE OR FALSE: During the past ten years funding for combating crime and waging the war on drugs has been dramatically The Bush/Reagan War on Crime is having a increased. significant impact on illegal drug use in Spending on federal law enforcement has America. - TRUE! grown from $4.3 billion in 1981 to an estimated $15.8 billion in 1993. This has paralleled a dramatic 22% decrease in the national crime rate over the same period: President Bush has given the Defense rape decreased 33% Department an active role in halting the flow robbery was down 24% of illegal drugs into the U.S. Federal cocaine assaults fell by 14% seizures in 1991 totaled nearly 108 metric theft was down 25% tons, a 10% increase over 1989. U.S. Attorneys continue to aggressively Last year Congress cut President Bush's target and prosecute financial fraud and requested increases for law enforcement white collar crime. Between October 1988 agencies such as the FBI, DEA, INS, and and March 1992, 2,300 Savings and Loan Federal prisons by $472 million - a 64% cutl crooks were convicted and more than $37 million in criminal restitution recovered. Use of illicit drugs decreased dramatically in the 1980s. According to the National Since the early 1980s, Federal law Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA) 1991 enforcement agencies have worked Household Survey, the number of Americans increasingly with state and local officials to using illicit drugs dropped 10.8 million, or target inner-city gangs, organized crime, and roughly 30%, between 1985 and 1991. major drug trafficking operations. President Bush has tripled federal anti-drug assistance, President Bush's National Drug Control now $496 million, to state and local Strategy helped cut overall drug use by 13% and adolescent use by 27%. governments. Bush/Reagan law enforcement initiatives, President Bush's innovative "Weed and including aggressive prosecution, stiffer Seed initiative weds tough law enforcement sentencing, and federal prison expansion, efforts targeting drug dealers and violent have kept violent offenders off the streets. criminals with effective social and economic The prison population has increased 172% programs to regenerate troubled neighborhoods. Bush has proposed $500 since 1981. million for Weed and Seed' in 1993. The national drug control budget has grown from $1.5 billion in 1981 to $12.7 billion in 1993, an increase of 750%. Spending on prevention and treatment has doubled under Bush and is now up to $4.1 billion. President Bush has fought for strengthening our crime laws, including an enforceable federal death penalty. "SETTING THE RECORD STRAIGHT:" Protecting Our Environment ENVIRONMENT During the past twelve years, our nation's most important environmental TRUE OR FALSE: laws have been significantly strengthened. "During Reagan-Bush, pollution increased, Twenty-two years after a Republican environmental regulations President created the Environmental were relaxed, and funding Protection Agency (EPA), the Congress has was slashed.' - FALSE! failed to adopt President Bush's 1990 proposal to make EPA a cabinet level Department. The Reagan and Bush Administrations The United States has the toughest, most have sought to protect the environment in a comprehensive environmental laws of any cost-effective manner that minimizes job nation on Earth. During the 1980s, 43 losses and threats to sustained economic environmental laws were enacted. During his growth. first two years in office, President Bush alone signed 26 bills into law, including the 1990 The U.S. currently spends more on Clean Air Act. pollution control than any other country in the world, devoting at least $115 billion The United States has led efforts to annually, or 2% of GDP. research, assess, and combat the ozone hole and global warming: During the past two decades: Last February, President Bush lead pollution down 96%, announced the unilateral phase-out of ozone depleting substances by 1995. carbon monoxide pollution down 41%, U.S. production of these substances is already 42% below levels required by sulfur dioxide pollution (contributes to international agreements. acid rain) down 25%, and, The U.S. spends more than half of what water pollution (suspended solids) down is spent in the world on global warming 80%. research. The Federal budget for environmental The U.S. is the only nation except the programs more than doubled since President Netherlands that has a detailed action Bush took office. He has proposed a 22% plan for limiting greenhouse gas increase - or an added $3.4 billion - for emissions. 1993. The President proposes in 1993 to spend: Through Bush initiatives such as the 1990 Clean Air Act, the National Energy $2.7 billion for EPA's operating budget Strategy, and the America the Beautiful (more than double 1980 levels); Reforestation program, the U.S. will reduce greenhouse gas emissions by $9.4 billion for cleanup of Defense and 125 to 200 million tons without seriously Energy Department facilities. damaging our economy. $1.4 billion for global climate change research (24% above last year). APPENDIX Federal Budget Trends Table: A) Receipts, Outlays, and Deficits In Billions of Dollars B) Receipts, Outlays, and Deficits As a Percentage of GDP C) Components of Outlays In Billions of Dollars D) Components of Outlays As a Percentage of Total Outlays RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEFICITS COMPONENTS OF OUTLAYS ($ billions) ($ billions) Fiscal Nondefense Net Fiscal Receipts Outlays Deficit Year Defense Discretionary Entitlements Interest Year 116.8 118.2 1.4 1965 51.0 30.8 35.7 8.6 1965 1970 1928 28 1970 81.9 42.7 68.2 14.4 195.6 279.1 3323 53.2 1975 87.6 74.9 164.9 23.2 1975 1980 517.1 590.9 73.8 1980 134.6 141.9 291.1 52.5 678.2 79.0 1981 158.0 150.1 340.6 68.8 1981 599.3 617.8 745.8 128.0 1982 185.9 140.3 3727 85.0 1982 808.4 207.8 1983 209.9 143.6 410.4 89.8 1983 600.6 1984 228.0 151.6 405.4 111.1 1984 666.5 851.8 185.4 734.1 946.4 2123 1985 253.1 163.1 447.8 129.5 1985 769.1 990.3 221.2 1986 273.8 165.2 461.2 136.0 1986 854.1 149.8 1987 2825 162.4 473.3 138.7 1987 1,003.9 1,064.1 155.2 1988 290.9 174.1 504.2 151.8 1988 909.0 169.2 1989 990.7 1,114.2 153.5 1989 304.0 185.6 549.2 220.5 1990 300.1 201.6 624.6 183.8 1990 1,031.3 1,251.8 1,054.3 1,323.0 268.7 1991 317.0 215.2 7022 196.3 1991 1995' 1,543.0 203.0 1995' 267.2 270.9 848.0 246.0 1,340.0 TABLE B. TABLE D. RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEFICITS COMPONENTS OF OUTLAYS As a Percentage of GDP As a Percentage of Total Outlays Fiscal Outlays Deficit Fiscal Nondefense Net Year Receipts Year Defense Discretionary Entitlements Interest 1965 17.4% 17.6% 0.2% 1965 43.1% 26.1% 302% 73% 1970 19.6 19.9 0.3 1970 419 21.8 34.9 7.4 1975 18.5 22.0 35 1975 26.4 225 49.6 7.0 1980 19.6 223 28 1980 228 24.0 49.3 89 1981 20.2 22.9 27 1981 233 22.1 50.2 10.1 1982 19.8 23.9 4.1 1982 249 18.8 50.0 11.4 1983 18.1 24.4 6.3 1983 26.0 17.8 50.8 11.1 1984 18.0 23.0 5.0 1984 26.8 17.8 47.6 13.0 1985 18.5 23.8 53 1985 26.7 17.2 473 13.7 1986 18.2 23.5 5.2 1986 27.6 16.7 46.6 13.7 1987 19.2 22.5 3.4 1987 28.1 16.2 47.1 13.8 1988 18.9 22.1 32 1988 273 16.4 47.4 143 1989 19.2 22.1 3.0 1989 27.3 16.7 49.3 15.2 1990 18.9 22.9 4.0 1990 24.0 16.1 49.9 14.7 1991 18.7 23.5 4.8 1991 24.0 16.3 53.1 14.8 1995' 19.1 22.0 29 1995' 173 17.6 55.0 15.9 1) Projections are from "An Analysis of the President's Budgetary Proposals for Fiscal Year 1993", CBO, March 1992. Proportion of total 2) These components, combined with a small amount of off-setting outlays that is defense is SBC-GOP Staff estimate. receipts (not shown), sum to total outlays. SOURCES Advisory Commission on intergovernmental Relations, Significant Features of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Securing our Legacy, An EPA Progress Report 1989-1991, 175 R-82-001, April 1992. Fiscal Federalism. Valume 2, 1991. Bureau of the Central Department of Commerce, American Housing Survey, Executive Office of the President, Budget of the United States Government Fiscal Year 1993, January 29, 1992. July 1991. Bureau of the Cansus Department of Commerce, Housing Starts and Building Executive Office of the President, Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1993, Historical Tables, February, 1992. Permits Bureau of the Census. Department of Commerce, Measuring the Effect of Executive Office of the President, The President's Comprehensive Cost Control Benefits and Taxes 8 income and Poverty:1990 and Money income and Poverty Program, February 6, 1992. Status in the U.S.1986 Executive Office of the President. U.S. Actions for a Better Environment A Bureau of the Cansus, Department of Commerce, U.S. Merchandise Trade Sustained Commitment 1992. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce, U.S. International Federal Bureau of investigation, Uniform Crime Reports Transactions Federal Funds information for States - FFIS, Grants-in-Aid Procrams: Selected Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce, Survey of Current Discretionary and Entitlements Comparisons 1981 to 1990 and 1990 to 1993. Issued June 1992. Business Bureau of Justice Statistics. National Corrections Reporting Program. Federal Housing Finance Board, Monthly Mortgage Index Rate Survey, Annual Summary of Rates and Terms. Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Reports. U.S. General Accounting Office, Fact Sheet for the Majority Leader, House of Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor, Employment and Earnings Representatives, intergovernmental Relations: Changing Patterns in State-Local Finances, March, 1992 Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, Office of Productivity and Technology, Comperative Population. Employment and Real Gross Domestic U.S. House of Representatives, Committee on Ways and Means, Overview of Entitlement Programs - 1992 Green Book, Committee Print WMCP:102-44. Product for 14 Countries Congressional Budget Office, The Economic and Budget Outlook Fiscal Years International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics 1993-1997, January 1992 International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Congressional Bucget Office, CBO Staff Memorandum, Measuring the Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Sanata, prepared by the Council of Economic Distribution of Income Gains, March 1982 Advisers, Economic indicators Congressional Buoget Office, CBO Paper, Trends in Public Infrastructure Outlavs National Association of Resitors, Research Division, Home Sales and the President's Proposals for infrastructure Spending in 1993, May, 1992. National Center for Education Statistics, U.S. Department of Education. Office of Congressional Budget Office, Staff Memorandum, Factors Contributing to the Research and improvement Dioest of Education Statistics, November, 1991. Growth of the Medicaid Program, May 1992. National Foundation for WomenBusiness Owners, Wormen-OwnedBusiness, the Congressional Bucget Office, Staff Memorandum. Factors Contributing to the New Economic Force, 1992 Data Report. Infant Mortality Raniono of the United States, February 1992 Congressional Budget Office (Testimony by Director Robert Reischauer), House National institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA), 1991 Household Survey. Committee on Wais-and Means. March 4, 1992 Office of the Attorney General, Attacking Financial Institution Fraud, Fiscal Year Congressional Research Service, Environmental Issues: From the 101st to the 1992 Second Quarterly Report. 102nd Congress, January 1991. Office of National Drug Control Policy, National Drug Control Strategy Congressional Research Service, Environmental Protection Laws and Treatles: Treasury Department, Household income Mobility During the 1980s: A Statistica Reference Guide January 1991. Assessment Based on Tax Return Date June 1992 Council of Economic Advisers, Executive Office of the President, Economic Transury Department, Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of income. Report of the Prescent Cound on Environmental Quality, Environmental Quality, 22nd Annual Report, The Urban institute, Policy Sites, is U.S. income inequality Realty Growing? June 1992 March 1992. Department of Commerce, Economics and Statistics Administration, Bureau of The White House, Bush Administration Environmental Accomolishments in the Cansus, Job creation During the Late 1980s, Saries P-70, No. 27 Support of UNCED, Fact Sheet, June 1, 1992. Department of Commerce, Economics and Statistics Administration, Bureau of the Census, Money income of Households, Families. and Persons in the U.S.: 1990, Series P-8C, NO. 174 Department of Education, America 2000, Number 23, Weeko March 30, 1992 Department of Health and Human Services, Health Resources and Services Administration, Justification of Appropriations Estimates for Committee on Appropriations, Fscal Year 1993. Department of Health and Human Services, National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, Justification of Appropriations Estimates for Committee on ADD oorlations, Fiscal Year 1992 Department of Health and Human Services, Public Health Service, Health United States, 1990. Department of Health and Human Services, Social Security Administration, Social Security Burkertin, Annual Statistical Supplement 1989. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Fiscal Year 1993 Budget, January 29, 1992 ID: SEP 04'92 11:37 No 005 P.02 FACT SHEET BUSH QUAYLE Issues Office 92 August 12, 1992 PRESIDENT BUSH: HELPING SMALL BUSINESSES TO GROW AND CREATE JOBS "Through their willingness to take risks and to do the hard work that is necessary to improve existing products and services, or to design, develop, and market new ones, small business people are leading America's economic productivity and innovation. Indeed, small business is the lifeblood of our Nation's free enterprise system." President Bush May 12, 1992 Summary As a former businessman and entrepreneur, George Bush understands the difficulties faced by small business owners, especially the need to raise capital and invest in growth. President Bush appreciates small business' unique role in creating jobs. Accordingly, the President has tailored his economic policies to cut burdensome federal regulations and to help small businesses get better access to capital. As the economy begins to recover, the President's efforts to keep inflation and interest rates low and to eliminate burdensome regulations are helping small businesses to cut costs, raise capital, and create jobs. To spur growth, and encourage new investment, the President is pushing a far-reaching economic growth plan, including new incentives for small businesses to invest in productivity -- a capital gains tax cut and a new investment tax allowance. The President's $5,000 tax credit for first- time homebuyers' will also spur new demand for housing, generating 272,500 new jobs, 125,000 new home starts, and $12.5 billion worth of residential construction. The President has authorized a record 6 billion dollar loan authority for the SBA for new business start ups and job expansion. -more- Paid for by Bush Quayle '92 Primary Committee, Inc. 1030 15th St. N.W., Washington, D.C. 20005 ID: SEP 04'92 11:37 No.005 P.03 Page 2 The President will not impose costly new taxes on small businesses, especially new payroll or income taxes. In contrast, Bill Clinton has already promised to impose $150 billion in new taxes on the American people, including significant new payroll tax mandates and income tax rate hikes. Clinton's new tax increases and mandates on business would cost jobs. : Over 800,000 small businesses would be hit by Clinton's tax hikes. Per worker health care costs would soar by at least two-thirds, while mandated family leave would cost them $1.2 billion each year. A small business owner would have to think twice about hiring each new worker. : The National Federation of Independent Business estimates that between one and two million small business jobs would evaporate if "play or pay" health insurance becomes law. In addition to vetoing the Democrats' $100 billion tax hike earlier this year, the President has vetoed bills that would have imposed significant new mandates on businesses, including new requirements for parental and family leave. The President has fought successfully for flexible policies -- in child care, for instance -- that serve both small business owners and employees. The President's commitment to open new markets and conclude free-trade agreements that break down foreign barriers are creating new growth opportunities for American businesses. Small Business: Backbone of a Growing Economy The Bush Administration's economic policies have reduced inflation and interest rates to their lowest levels in decades, laying the groundwork for a strong recovery, new growth, and more jobs. President Bush's economic growth plan, which Democrats in Congress continue to block, would have created 500,000 additional new jobs this year. Small businesses, in particular, will benefit from the President's plan. -more- ID: SEP 04'92 11:38 No.005 P.04 Page 3 -- Small businesses accounted for more than two-thirds of the 850,000 jobs created in 1991 and 350,000 jobs during the first five months of 1992. -- Small businesses currently employ more than half of the American work force, generate 44% of all sales, and 39% of the U.S. GNP. From 1990-91 small business profits increased by more than 32%. o Many of the President's actions have followed recommendations called for at the 1986 White House Conference on Small Business. Those recommendations included: capital gains tax reduction, liability reforms, and opposition to government mandated benefits. Reducing Taxes on Business 0 Capital Gains Tax Cut: President Bush has proposed a reduction in the capital gains tax to create jobs, spur new investment, and boost productivity. Congress has refused to pass the capital gains tax cut proposed in both the 1990 and 1992 Presidential economic growth packages. As a result, small businesses and venture entrepreneurs have suffered. -- 47% of most small businesses obtain start-up funds from personal capital which is taxable under current laws. 0 Investment Tax Allowance: The President supports a 15% investment tax allowance to encourage businesses to buy equipment, upgrade their plants, and start hiring again. -- An investment tax allowance would spur 30% of all small businesses to expand facilities and operations. 0 R & D Tax Credit: The President has proposed to make permanent the 20% research and experimentation tax credit, which will encourage investment in industries and technologies to lead long-term growth into the next century. o AMT Reform: The President opposes the "adjusted current earnings" depreciation adjustment under the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT). This penalizes capital-intensive industries such as airlines, chemicals, paper, motor vehicles, and steel when they buy equipment to modernize or expand capacity. As part of his economic growth package, the President has proposed AMT Reform. -more- ID: SEP 04'92 11:38 No.005 P.05 Page 4 The President's proposed enterprise zones will encourage small businesses to return to inner cities and rural areas. The incentives include a limited refundable tax credit for qualified employee wages and an elimination of taxation on capital gains attributable to eligible zone property. The President strongly supports a first-time homebuyer's tax credit as a long-term stimulant to the economy. This credit would create about 272,000 jobs, generate 125,000 housing starts, and produce $12.5 billion in additional residential construction. The Dangers of Tax-Hiking Clintonomics Clinton's economic "strategy," which proposes the largest single tax increase in history and includes oppressive government mandates, would cost at least 2.6 million American jobs. Clinton hides behind the veil of class warfare, claiming that his tax increases will only "soak the rich." In reality, he plans to drown small business. -- The real burden of Clinton's tax hikes will be felt largely by job-creating small businesses -- the sole proprietorships, partnerships, Subchapter S corporations and family farms that form the backbone of the small business community. -- More than 75% of those whose taxes will be raised fall into this category, and more than $40 billion of the Clinton tax hikes will be paid for directly from the profits of small business. -- simply stated, more than 800,000 small businesses will have their taxes increased each year under a Clinton presidency. All told, Clinton's new taxes and mandates on business will cost American businesses $101 billion next year -- fully 54% of their 1991 profits. At a time when the economy is starting to grow again, any plan that takes away over half of American business' profits -- profits that are being invested in new workers and better products -- will cost jobs, eliminate opportunity, and stifle economic growth. -erom- ID: SEP 04'92 11:39 No.005 P.06 Page 5 Health Care Reform for Small Businesses O Over the past two years, 83% of small businesses have seen their health care costs increase. President Bush realizes that small businesses have been at a competitive disadvantage in the insurance marketplace and has pledged to reform the current health care system. The President's plan can reduce the cost of health coverage for small business without costly government mandates or higher taxes. -- Health Insurance Networks: Until now, small businesses have been at a competitive disadvantage in the insurance marketplace. The President's Comprehensive Health Reform Program encourages small businesses to form Health Insurance Networks (HINs). These HINs will allow small businesses to pool their purchasing power, enabling them to purchase low cost, high quality health insurance. The President's proposal also exempts insurance sold through HINs (as well as that sold outside of HINs) from costly state-imposed mandates and excessive state premium taxes. -- 100% Deduction: Self-employed persons would be permitted to deduct 100% of their insurance costs (as a regular business expense) from their taxable income. Insurance Credit Certificates: Small business employees and their families with low to moderate incomes and not receiving employer provided health insurance would receive insurance credit certificates or tax deductions of up to $1,250 for individuals, $2,500 for 2-person families, and $3,750 for larger families, making insurance affordable. 0 The President's plan ensures that states will develop packages of basic benefits, and will guarantee that similar businesses buying similar insurance policies pay comparable premiums, regardless of how sick their employees are. No longer will small employers find that one sick employee or one employee with a sick child will make insurance unaffordable or unavailable. 0 The President strongly opposes play-or-pay and Canadian- style health plans that would penalize small businesses and bring with them the rationing of services, new intrusive government bureaucracies. -more- ID: SEP 04'92 11:39 No.005 P.07 Page 6 -- A survey conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business showed that 93 percent of small- business owners oppose government mandating that employers purchase health insurance for their employees. In fact, if these employers were forced to pay as much as $150 a month per employee for health coverage, more than one-fourth would opt to close their doors. Another one-fourth would remain open but lay off some employees. o Bill Clinton's play-or-pay health plan would require $80 billion in new taxes. : In addition, the minimum of a 7 percent payroll tax that a play-or-pay health plan requires could result in a pay cut of $1,680 a year for the average 30-year old male high school graduate, currently earning $24,000 a year in wages, and a pay cut of $1,260 a year for the average 30 year old male high school dropout, currently earning $18,000 a year in wages. Presidential Vetoes: Stopping the Democrats' Costly New Mandates President Bush has consistently opposed measures that would hurt small business. Among his 31 vetoes, the President vetoed three measures that would have imposed costly new mandates and regulations on small business: -- Labor Standards Amendments of 1989 Had President Bush not vetoed this bill, which increased the minimum wage to $4.55 per hour, many small firms would have had to lay off employees to meet unnecessarily inflated labor costs. The bill would have forced employers to cut services to their customers or cut jobs, particularly damaging the employment prospects of young people and less advantaged citizens. It also would have accelerated inflation, causing some businesses to close completely. -- Family and Medical Leave Act (1990) President Bush believes that family leave is an important benefit for employers to offer employees, but he objects to rigid, federally-imposed requirements. This bill would have stifled productivity and job growth which the U.S. desperately needs if it intends to compete in the global marketplace. Small businesses would have been hit hard by mandated family leave, costing them $1.2 billion each year. -елош- ID: SEP 04'92 11:40 No.005 P.08 Page 7 -- Tax Fairness and Economic Growth Acceleration Act (1992) This bill, forced through by the Democratic leadership, included a $100 billion tax increase. More than two- thirds of this tax increase would have fallen on small business owners and entrepreneurs. The plan also failed to create long-term investment and growth and would have jeopardized the economic recovery. Relieving the Credit Crunch The Bush Administration has worked with bank regulators and has conducted extensive meetings with bankers, examiners, and borrowers all over the nation to ease the credit crunch and increase the availability of funds. The Administration has worked with regulators to issue over 35 regulatory changes in order to increase the availability of credit. -- The Bush Administration has directed that valuation of real estate be based on ability to generate income, not on liquidation value. -- The President has taken action to end over-zealous bank examinations and to promote incentives that help banks maintain capital levels. -- The President has proposed legislation to increase the availability of credit by reducing unnecessary regulatory burdens on the banking industry. Industry observers estimate that if just 25% of the resources banks now devote to regulatory compliance could be redirected into bank capital, the banking industry could support $20-30 billion in additional lending. The Bush Administration has called on banks with improving capital and earnings aggressively to seek out sound loans -- and not just investing their capital in government securities. Improving Access to capital Through the SBA Working with the programs of the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA), the President has expanded opportunities for small businessmen and women to obtain capital. The President has authorized a record $6 billion loan authority for the SBA for new business start ups and job expansion. -more- ID: SEP 04'92 11:40 No.005 P.09 Page 8 The SBA has established a micro-loan program to make direct 10-year loans of up to $750,000 to non-profit intermediaries which provide small loans -- ranging from a few hundred dollars to $25,000 -- to entrepreneurs to establish or strengthen their small businesses. The Bush Administration has worked with Congress to seek long-term improvements in the venture capital-providing Small Business Investment Corporations (SBICs). Regulatory Reform O President Bush has made the reduction of burdensome regulation a priority in his efforts to spur economic growth, and has taken significant steps to ease the strangle-hold of unnecessary regulations. Regulations, no matter how well-intentioned, often times stifle economic growth and inhibit job creation. -- In his January 28, 1992 State of the Union address, President Bush ordered a temporary halt to new federal regulations. President Bush's moratorium will help small businesses grow without sacrificing health and safety. -- According to a recent survey by National Small Business United, regulatory burdens are the second-highest concern of small business owners. -- Under the President's direction, federal agencies have taken more than 200 separate regulatory reform actions which collectively will save Americans between $11 and $24 billion annually. The Administration has developed proposals designed to ease, or provide more flexibility in the regulation of small business. -- The Bush Administration has proposed allowing small businesses to file payroll taxes only once a month instead of as often as twice a week as now required. -- The IRS is currently working on a new federal tax form (941EZ), one specifically tailored for small business, which eliminates many questions applicable only to larger firms. In 1990, the IRS developed a new unemployment tax reporting form that is now used by approximately 700,000 small businesses, and is estimated to save 10 million hours in paperwork. -more- ID: SEP 04'92 11:41 No 005 P.10 Page 9 -- The Administration has proposed deductible tax preparation fees, joint federal and state filing, and the electronic deposit of payroll taxes. Under the Vice President's leadership, the President's Council on Competitiveness is assisting federal agencies in reducing the regulatory barriers that hamper the growth of American industries. -- The Council challenged overly-restrictive definitions of wetlands that would have barred development on lands not truly wet. The President has proposed legislation that will reform the product liability system by encouraging settlements instead of costly litigation, reducing excessive court awards, and providing for prompt payment of legitimate claims. To assist small businesses in raising essential capital, the SEC is simplifying needlessly complex registration requirements. It is also increasing the maximum size for SEC Regulation A public stock offerings from $1.5 million to $5 million under streamlined procedures. opening Markets for American Goods U.S. goods and services face many barriers around the world, from prohibitive licensing requirements and collusive corporate business practices to inadequate protection for intellectual property rights. President Bush is committed to redressing these barriers and increasing exports to create jobs and foster competitiveness. -- U.S. merchandise exports. surged to an all time high of $422 billion in 1991, up 31% since 1988. Today, America is again the world's leading exporting nation, and small businesses have been a beneficiary of this export growth. The President wants a strong North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with Canada and Mexico, which would create a market of 360 million consumers with an output of $6 trillion. Since Mexico began to liberalize trade in 1986, U.S. merchandise exports to Mexico have surged by more than 169 percent; a NAFTA will ensure that our exports to Mexico increase even more. -more- ID: SEP 04'92 11:41 No.005 P.11 Page 10 NAFTA means more opportunities for U.S. small businesses to grow through international export. U.S. merchandise exports to Mexico and Canada have more than doubled since 1980, rising from $51 to $118 billion. The President is working for a strong GATT agreement to open markets worldwide to a variety of U.S. businesses. A successful agreement could increase U.S. output by $1 trillion over the next ten years. -- The President stood firm in his protection of U.S. intellectual property rights and opposed arbitrary emissions targets and timetables in Rio de Janiero at the United Nations Conference on the Environment and Development. o Had the President not successfully objected to these Rio initiatives, the U.S. biotech industry would have been decimated, the U.S. opposed provisions that would have jeopardized U.S. biotech industry activities overseas, and new job-costing carbon taxes. Development of a skilled and Literate Workforce President Bush believes that improving the American educational system and job training programs are critical to America's competitive position in the world. The President has begun programs that will lead to a better educated workforce that can quickly adapt to the changing business needs of the future. -- The President's America 2000 grass-roots education strategy advocates school choice (both private and public), tougher standards, and would create break-the- mold New American Schools. 0 The President has doubled funding for literacy and established the National Institute for Literacy which coordinates all federal literacy programs. Literacy is a top priority of both the President and Mrs. Bush. The President's Job Training 2000 initiatives will replace several different Federal job-training programs with a new, coordinated, market-driven system. Services now provided under the Job Training Partnership Act will be provided through Skills Centers that will provide "one stop shopping" for those in need of job training. -erom- ID: SEP 04'92 11:42 No.005 P.12 Page 11 On April 14, 1992, President Bush sent to Congress his Youth Apprenticeship Act. This bill facilitates the development of voluntary youth apprenticeships that integrate high academic standards, workplace skills, and real working experience leading to meaningful employment. The President's Lifelong Learning Act ensures that higher education will be available to many people who are now denied access, particularly part-time students. This Act makes it easier for employees of small businesses to get training by providing a lifetime line of credit for all Americans. Supporting Women Entrepreneurs Through the Office of Women's Business Ownership at the Department of Labor and the Small Business Administration, the Bush Administration assists nearly 5 million women entrepreneurs in the U.S. Census Bureau statistics indicate that women own 32% of all small businesses in the United States, projected to grow to 40% by the year 2000. President Bush has established initiatives designed to help women to establish and maintain their own businesses. His initiatives provide technical assistance, improve access to credit, and foster export growth. white House Conference on Small Business The President, in recognition of the important role small business plays in the American economy, fully supports the 1994 Conference on Small Business. ### ID: SEP 04'92 11:18 No 003 P.01 BUSH QUAYLE 92 Issues Fax Transmittal Date 9/4 Time 11:20 No Pages From: Severy Shane Fax No: 202-336-7943 Phone No: 202-336-7232 To: or Jennifer Grossman Organization: Fax No: 456-6218 Phone No: Information: Confidentiality Notice The document accompanying this telecopy contains information that belongs to the sender which is confidential and may be legally privileged. This information is intended for the use of the individual or entity named above. If you are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any disclosure, copying, distribution, or the taking of any action in reliance on the contents of this telecopied information is strictly prohibited. If you have received this telecopy in error, please immediately notify us by telephone to arrange for return of the original document to us. 1030 15th St. NW, Washington, DC 20005 Paid for by Bush-Quayle '92 General Committee, Inc. Printed on Recycled Paper ID: SEP 04'92 11:19 No. 003 P.02 BUSH BACKGROUNDER *** QUAYLE August 27, 1992 Issues Office 92 THE PRESIDENT'S PLAN TO CREATE JOBS THE PRESIDENT'S GROWTH PLAN WOULD CREATE AT LEAST 500,000 JOBS THIS YEAR. The President's plan to create jobs: Had the President's growth package been passed by the Congress, it would have created 500,000 jobs this year alone. The President continues to fight for job training growth measures such as: a cut in the capital gains tax, a $5,000 tax credit for first time homebuyers, creation of flexible IRAs, and a new Investment Tax Allowance. -- The President's $5,000 homebuyers tax credit would create 272,500 jobs, primarily in the now-distressed construction and manufacturing industries, and generate an additional 125,000 housing starts. Spurring Investment and Creating New Jobs: By 1996, a capital gains tax reduction would create 282,000 jobs, and establishment of flexible IRA accounts would create 61,000 jobs, according to estimates of job creation by growth proposals similar to the President's. Opening Foreign Markets to American Goods: President Bush has taken an active and direct role in opening foreign markets and reducing subsidies and other barriers to trade. -- NAFTA: The President negotiated and signed a North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) to create new American jobs. Exports to Mexico already support over 600,000 U.S. jobs. The Institute for International Economics projects that with a NAFTA, over one million U.S. jobs could be tied to exports to Mexico by 1995, and that increased exports due to a NAFTA will have created 175,000 net new jobs. -- Even the homestate of NAFTA's leading critic, Congressman Gephardt, will benefit from the agreement. Almost one-third of Missouri's 170,000 export-related jobs depend on exports to Canada and Mexico. The jobs created by a NAFTA will pay good wages since export-related jobs pay 17% more than the average U.S. job. Clinton's economic plan will lose 2.6 million jobs, 1.7 million of which will come from his rash defense cuts and burdensome "play-or- pay" health plan. While he calls his $150 billion tax increase an "investment," one million defense workers and employees from 800,000 small businesses will call it unemployment. -- It is unfortunate that automotive workers are being displaced while their factories are retooled. But, it would be far more tragic that under a Clinton-Gore Administration, radical increases in automotive efficiency standards would cost 300,000 automobile and related workers their jobs -- permanently. Paid for by Bush Quayle *92 General Committee, Inc. 1030 15th St. N.W., Washington, D.C. 20005 10 THE TREASURY NEWS The ASTIRY 1769 Department phe Treasury Washington, D.C. Telephone 566-2041 EMBARGOED UNTIL 9 PM (EST) January 28, 1992 President Bush's Plan to Stimulate Economic Recovery, Promote Long-Term Growth, and Expand Opportunity The President's plan will stimulate economic recovery and job-creating investment; open up opportunity for home ownership and real estate recovery; and help families build for the future. It accomplishes these goals with the following initiatives: Proposal page Cut Capital Gains Tax Rate 2 Investment Tax Allowance (ITA) 9 Simplify and Enhance Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) 10 Depreciation Targeted Jobs Tax Credit 11 Establish Enterprise Zones 12 Raise Tax-Free Mass Transit Benefits 14 Repeal Tax on Purchases of Certain Boats and Airplanes 15 Permanent Research and Experimentation Tax Credit 16 Passive Loss Rules for Active Real Estate Developers 18 Facilitate Greater Pension Fund Investment in Real Estate 20 Help First-time Homebuyers 21 Permit Deductibility of Losses on Sale of Personal Residences 22 Mortgage Revenue Bonds 23 Low-Income Housing Tax Credit 24 Family Tax Allowance 25 Flexible Individual Retirement Accounts (FIRA's) 26 Permit Deduction of Interest on Student Loans 27 Extend Unemployment Benefits 28 Deduction for Special-Needs Adoptions 29 Small Issue Bonds for First-Time Farmers 30 INVESTMENT TAX ALLOWANCE (ITA) The proposal would provide firms an additional first year depreciation equal to 15 percent of the purchase price of newly acquired equipment. This additional depreciation would be allowed for both regular and alternative minimum tax purposes. The property must be acquired on or after February 1, 1992 and before January 1, 1993, and placed in service before July 1, 1993. Provide Immediate Stimulus for Job-Creating Investment The proposal would provide investment incentives by increasing cash flow and by lowering the net cost of capital invested in 1992 for businesses purchasing newly acquired equipment. This would provide a short-term productivity. boost to the sluggish recovery, while at the same time raising long-run To create jobs, businesses need to make investments in productive equipment, such as computer-aided design equipment, advanced machine tools, and telecommunications equipment. Advantages of the ITA Over a Return to the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) The President selected the ITA because it benefits all taxpaying businesses, including firms that pay taxes under the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) The ITC disadvantages taxpayers subject to the AMT, because its use is limited to 25 percent of AMT liability. The ITA reduces effective tax rates by the same percentage for all eligible investment. A five percent ITC favors short-lived assets and has a much higher revenue loss to the Treasury. Unlike many ITC proposals, the ITA does not "target" certain forms of investments. equipment and pick winners instead, it creates a level playing field for Improve Corporate Competitiveness Companies in the U.S. invest relatively less than their competitors in Germany and Japan. U.S. gross domestic investment as a percent of GNP is the lowest of the six major industrialized countries (Canada, France, Germany, Japan, the U.K., and the S.). The ITA, along with the reduction in capital gains tax rates and the changes in the Alternative Minimum Tax, will reduce the cost of capital faced by American companies, thereby making them more competitive. 9 THE WHITE HOUSE Office of the Press Secretary Embargoed for Release at May 12, 1992 3:00 p.m. EST FACT SHEET ON THE ADMINISTRATION'S PROGRAM FOR REDUCING TAX COMPLIANCE BURDENS FOR SMALL EMPLOYERS As part of the President's regulatory reform initiative, the Administration today announced several steps to reduce the administrative costs to small employers of complying with the tax laws. Studies have concluded that the U.S. tax system imposes administrative costs on the private sector that are equal to a sizable percentage of the approximately $1.2 trillion in taxes actually received by the Federal Government. These administrative costs are passed on to every American consumer in the form of higher prices. These costs also impede the creation of new jobs by forcing businesses -- particularly small businesses -- to spend inordinate sums on tax lawyers and accountants rather than on new, productive investments. In response to the President's State-of-the-Union request for a comprehensive review of all federal regulations, the Department of the Treasury and the IRS launched a systematic search for ways to reduce these indirect costs. As a result of this review, the Administration today announced several steps to reduce the administrative burdens of the payroll tax system, as well as other indirect burdens currently borne by small businesses. Full implementation of these initiatives will spur economic growth and help create new jobs for American workers. 1. Reduce the Costs of the Payroll Tax System. When fully implemented, the following steps will reduce by several billion dollars a year the administrative costs to more than 5 million employers who must report employment taxes. Simplified Payroll Tax Deposit System. Presently, many employers must make payroll tax deposits as often as twice a week, usually on different days of the week. If an employer's payroll varies significantly from payday to payday, the deposit requirements may change substantially within the same quarter. These requirements cause confusion, add complexity, and create unnecessary burdens for taxpayers. The Administration has previously supported payroll tax reform legislation that would have reduced these burdens. Unfortunately, this legislation was attached to the broader tax bill which the Democratic leadership pushed through Congress in March, and which the President vetoed because it would have increased taxes. Fortunately, the President has sufficient authority under existing statutes to accomplish many of the objectives of the Administration-supported payroll tax reforms. Accordingly, the Administration announced today the publication of proposed IRS regulations that will simplify existing payroll tax requirements and thereby make compliance considerably easier. -- Under the proposed regulations, large employers can deposit payroll taxes on a fixed day of the week -- Tuesday or Friday depending on the payroll date. Smaller employers will make payroll tax deposits monthly. As many as 75% of all employers will be able to use this "once-a-month" rule. -- These simplifications will substantially reduce the costs to employers -- particularly small employers -- of complying with payroll tax regulations. In addition, these changes are expected to reduce the number of payroll tax penalties by more than 20%. Form 941EZ. The IRS also announced that it is developing a simplified new form, Form 941EZ, for reporting federal employment taxes. The new form, which the IRS anticipates will be available by the first quarter of 1994, will eliminate information that is ordinarily relevant only to large businesses. -- The new form is expected to reduce substantially the compliance burdens of more than 3.5 million small employers. -- The development of Form 941EZ follows on the heels of other IRS initiatives designed to provide simplified forms to small businesses. In 1990, for example, the IRS introduced Form 940EZ, a simplified version of the form for reporting Federal Unemployment Taxes. This new form is now used by approximately 700,000 small employers at an estimated annual savings of up to 10 million taxpayer hours. Electronic Deposit of Payroll Taxes. Last year, employers filed over 80 million paper coupons to accompany federal payroll tax deposits of almost $850 billion. The IRS has been testing a program to replace the paper coupons with a system that will permit employers to make payroll tax payments electronically, without leaving their offices. The - 2 - IRS today announced that this experimental, voluntary program will be available in early June to employers in South Carolina, Florida, and Atlanta, Georgia. On-Line Tax Identification Number Matching. The IRS plans this fall to establish a call-in site to allow employers to verify employees' tax identification numbers (TINs) electronically. The IRS anticipates that this program will be made available to all employers in 1993. Single Wage Reporting. Traditionally, an employer must file employment tax forms for each employee with the IRS and the Social Security Administration as well as state and local tax agencies. The IRS, the Social Security Administration, and the Department of Labor recently agreed to joint development of a new Single Wage Reporting System. This system would do away with the duplicate filing of Form W-2 and other payroll tax information. -- The new system would require only one filing, thereby saving substantial administrative costs. -- The federal agencies will work closely with state organizations in refining and implementing this system. 2. Reduce Other Tax-Related Burdens. The Administration announced the following measures to reduce other tax-related burdens on small businesses: Deductibility of Tax Preparation Fees. On April 1, 1992, the IRS released a ruling allowing more than 16 million sole proprietors (including farmers) to deduct business-related tax preparation fees as a business expense rather than as a limited itemized deduction. Joint Federal-State Filing. The IRS is working with states on a pilot program for the joint electronic filing of federal and state tax returns. In 1992, the IRS implemented this program on a state-wide basis in South Carolina and on a more limited basis in 6 other states. The IRS expects to add additional states during the coming year. O Educational Initiatives for Small Businesses. In the past year, the IRS has informally contacted over 150,000 small businesses that were having difficulty complying with federal tax deposit requirements. It is now working with these taxpayers -- outside the formal audit/enforcement context -- to address compliance concerns. In addition, during Fiscal Year 1991, the IRS conducted over 2400 Small Business Tax Education Workshops and seminars for over 80,000 executives. The IRS plans to continue these efforts during the coming year. - 3 - 1,2 FROM "BCONOMIC INDICATORS" by CEA CONSUMER PRICES-ALL URBAN CONSUMERS In August, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.3 percent, seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted. The index was 3.1 percent above its year-earlier level. INDEX, 1982-84 = 100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1982-84 . 100 (RATIO SCALE) 150 150 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 140 140 130 130 CONSUMER PRICES-ALL ITEMS 120 120 110 110 100 100 90 90 80 80 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1982-84=100 except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] All items 1 Housing Transportation Shelter All Not Sea- season- Home- Rent- Fuel Period Appar- Medi- items ally son- Food Mainte- and el and Ener- less own- ers' cal ally Total 1 ers' New other Motor 2 adjust- nance upkeep Total 1 gy food ed adjust- Total costs (Dec. costs utili- fuel care and cars and (NSA) ed 1982= (Dec. repairs ties energy 1982= 100) (NSA) 100) Rel. imp.³ 100.0 16.0 41.5 27.9 8.0 19.7 0.2 7.3 6.1 17.0 4.1 3.3 6.7 7.4 76.6 1982 96.5 97.4 96.9 96.9 96.4 94.9 97.8 97.0 97.4 102.8 92.5 99.2 95.8 1983 99.6 99.4 99.5 99.1 103.0 102.5 99.9 100.2 100.2 99.3 99.9 99.4 100.6 99.9 99.6 1984 103.9 103.2 103.6 104.0 108.6 107.3 103.7 104.8 102.1 103.7 102.8 97.9 106.8 100.9 104.6 1985 107.6 105.6 107.7 109.8 115.4 113.1 106.5 106.5 105.0 106.4 106.1 98.7 113.5 101.6 109.1 1986 109.6 109.0 110.9 115.8 121.9 119.4 107.9 104.1 105.9 102.3 110.6 77.1 122.0 88.2 113.5 1987 113.6 113.5 114.2 121.3 128.1 124.8 111.8 103.0 110.6 105.4 114.6 80.2 130.1 88.6 1988 118.2 118.3 118.2 118.5 127.1 133.6 131.1 114.7 104.4 115.4 108.7 116.9 80.9 138.6 89.3 1989 123.4 124.0 125.1 123.0 132.8 138.9 137.3 118.0 107.8 118.6 114.1 119.2 88.5 149.3 94.3 129.0 1990 130.7 132.4 128.5 140.0 146.7 144.6 122.2 111.6 124.1 120.5 121.0 101.2 162.8 102.1 135.5 1991 136.2 136.3 133.6 146.3 155.6 150.2 126.3 115.3 128.7 123.8 125.3 99.4 177.0 102.5 142.1 1991: Aug 136.6 136.6 136.3 133.8 146.4 155.2 150.5 127.2 115.3 129.2 124.2 125.9 98.0 178.9 101.2 Sept 143.0 137.2 137.1 136.5 134.2 146.9 155.8 151.1 126.8 115.7 130.0 124.2 126.3 97.9 180.0 Oct 101.4 143.6 137.4 137.4 136.4 134.6 147.4 156.3 151.6 126.6 116.2 130.3 124.0 126.2 97.3 181.1 Nov 101.4 143.9 137.8 137.9 137.0 135.0 147.9 156.6 152.1 127.6 116.8 131.1 124.5 126.3 98.2 182.0 Dec 102.2 144.4 137.9 138.2 137.4 135.4 148.4 157.3 152.7 128.1 116.8 129.6 124.8 126.5 98.5 183.3 102.3 144.7 1992: Jan 138.1 138.3 136.8 135.7 149.1 158.4 153.2 128.0 116.4 130.0 124.4 126.6 96.3 Feb 184.5 100.8 145.1 138.6 138.7 137.2 136.0 149.5 158.9 153.6 128.3 115.9 131.9 124.2 126.7 95.7 Mar 186.0 99.9 145.7 139.3 139.4 137.9 136.5 150.0 158.5 154.5 128.4 116.4 132.7 125.1 127.2 96.6 187.0 100.5 Apr 146.4 139.5 139.7 137.8 136.7 150.2 158.9 154.6 128.0 116.9 131.8 125.7 127.8 96.8 May 188.0 100.9 146.8 139.7 139.9 137.3 136.9 150.4 159.5 154.7 128.1 117.1 132.3 126.1 128.0 97.9 June 189.0 101.5 147.1 140.2 140.3 137.5 137.5 151.1 160.4 155.3 128.5 117.5 132.0 126.7 128.5 July 101.0 189.8 103.5 147.4 140.5 140.5 137.3 137.6 151.1 160.2 155.5 128.8 117.9 131.8 127.3 128.6 101.7 190.8 Aug 103.8 147.7 140.9 140.9 138.5 137.8 151.4 160.5 155.7 128.1 118.5 131.8 127.2 129.1 100.4 191.6 103.6 148.0 1 Includes items not shown separately. 2 Household fuels-gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.-and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc. NOTE.-Data beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs also included through 1982. and therefore are not strictly comparable with figures for earlier periods. 3 Relative importance, December 1991. Data beginning 1987 and 1988 calculated on a revised basis. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 23 Our economy has been working through four adjustments. They establish the context for my agenda. First, during the 1980s, we enjoyed the longest 7yrs 8 mos I peacetime expansion in U.S. history, lasting seven and 110078 88671 Now82 July 90 a half years. Through these years of strong growth, we to created 19 million jobs, more than all the new jobs in 21.407 miln. the other major industrial countries and the rést of 3 western Europe combined. Yet the boom that wiped also away 82-90 21.310 the dismal economic performance of the late 70's led too more many more companies, too mov many financial institutions, too many all ready eacer and ? government and too more many households to take on too much willing, to take on more debt. debt. You and they have been paying down that debt [over over over the 4 the last three years -- and lower interest rates have last year eliminating helped you do it. Millions of people have refinanced homes at lower rátes, reducing mortgage payments by as the 5 much as $1,500 to $2,000 a year. (Check) (Companies have 1200-1500 1200 1500 Aug for all home sales in us. Annual cat mortgage reduction of $1353 from 1990 to 1992, July 2 restructured, paid down debt, and strengthened their balance sheets, positioning themselves to enjoy substantial profits when stronger growth resumes. This process will leave our economy leaner and more powerful; indeed many firms already are. But while that debt was 6 being paid down, people bought fewer goods and companies put less money into new investments and jobs. The process is largely over, but it has left consumers and companies cautious. Second, we entered the '80s with a banking system designed 50 years earlier; it was woefully out of place in an era when billions of dollars could be sent around the world in a matter of moments. To provide a basis of 4,600 comparison, consider that the United States entered the 5,000 14,000 1980s with some 9,000 commercial banks and 3,500 savings DECETE and loans. Check. In comparison, Canada had " Germany had , and Japan had The vast . majority of those small banks and S&Ls operated in a Akira Furulkawa Japinew heavily controlled environment where their costs of funds were limited by ceilings on your passbook accounts. Emborry Other regulations restricted competition by imposing two costs and inefficiencies on savers and borrowers. In the late '70s, this out-of-date system was buffeted by record interest and inflation rates; it was challenged by competition from new financial services. As in any other line of business, the less efficient 3 institutions could not survive. But because our banks and S&Ls held insured deposit accounts for most hardworking Americans, the streamlining process had to be managed in a way that enabled the Government to protect savers. This process, too, is nearing its end. It will leave us with a more competitive and efficient financial system that will serve companies and families better. Over the next few years, the United States Government will actually gain revenues from the sales of billions of dollars of assets that it acquired as it protected savers. But this process has left lenders cautious. Business borrowing rates and mortgage rates are way down, 13 but it's still too hard for small businesses to gain access to credit. The third great change in our economy is ironically due to our very success in ending the Cold War. Since our superpower rival of the last half century has disappeared, we are now able to do something we have all hoped for since the close of World War II -- reduce significantly our defense budget. In the medium and long run, reductions in defense spending will free up many new resources for our people and our economy. In the short run, this adjustment has meant cutbacks and lay-offs in many industries that have depended on defense spending. 4 The final economic change is perhaps the most profound of all: No nation is an island today. we are CA part of a global economy. To grow is MANUFACTUR to trade; to JOBS expand Dave wat USTR x?58 14 is to compete. One out of every six^in our economy CA 6 depends directly on our exports; so does one acre out of USDA keith Collins I ERS every three planted by American farmers. Check. 720-5955 This international economic influence has three slumps it drags implications. One, when growth is slow abroad as it is down with iT today, our economy is slowed, too. Two, it means that if America is going to be strong and growing in the 21st Century, we must be ready prepared and able to compete around the globe. Three, we need to seize opportunities to develop new markets, particularly in areas that have potential for significant growth in the future. II. Start with Strengths In developing a plan for the future, it is important Take a clean eyed look at our weakness as wellas that we assess fairly our strengths. as well conveniently as the problems. Not surprisingly, the other side has^ skipped over the United States' numerous strengths. Frankly, over the will of part her they want you to believe America is in a state of prime. decline. But they have no more right to convince you the economy is worse than it is for political advantage than I have to sugarcoat the problems. So we need to make at 5 least a brief survey of some of the foundation stones on which we will build. Let's start with some of the key economic indicators: 6 Inflation has fallen to roughly 3%, the lowest CA in a quarter of a century (except for 1986). means That ove In fact, during my administration, inflation 17 averaged less than half the inflation during ys,hone new in shewest't This mostgest equivalut meavates since however Thine 1973. Ata Athements : a the Carter years. Interest rates are at a 20 year low. In 18 The I CA => are particular, mortgage rates are now in the 8% range, half the rate President Reagan 19 CA encountered in his first year. Thanks to these low rates, more people can afford to own a home 20 today than in any time since 1973. (Ace note) $ While unemployment is still far too high, the CA share of the working age popúlation with jobs Ace note 21 during my administration has averaged 62.3%, 22 CA I get the highest in U.S. history. Indeed, the 62.2% using 61.5% (BLS) for 1997 average unemployment rate during my term has 23 CA 645 '92 remained below the average of the Carter years 61.6 '91 and puts us well ahead of G-7 partners like 62.7 '90 24 63.0 .89 Canada, Britain, France, and Italy -- where CA (scenote) unemployment rates are 10% or higher. Last # on Italy is 7.0% 6 The Misery Index -- the sum of inflation and 1q. we A CPI unemployment -- is down to 10.4% today from 10.8% Through most + C.U.R. 19.6% in 1980. recent data The rise in United States GDP during our ALONE long 26 expansion was $1.1 trillion. This increase is greater than the total size of the capita German 27 per economy. % These macroeconomic statistics translate into real improvements for individuals, too: c Average family income reached $42,652 in 1990, 28 $15,000 more than before the expansion began. A recent study by the Urban Institute concluded: "When one follows individuals rather than statístical groups defined by income, one finds that, on average, the rich got a little richer and the poor got much richer." " "This pattern, however, may be surprising to the general public which has been led to believe that the poor were literally getting poorer over the last decade or two, and that the 7 incomes of the rich were skyrocketing. That is simply not true." M 1980's Of the people making up the lowest fifth of the 4 UA income distribution in the late 1970s, more than half moved out of the lowest fifth and up the income ladder over the next ten years. During the expansion, the middle class shrank Q because more of them moved above the $50,000 threshold and into the high income groups -- they weren't moving down. Real per capita income rose 15.7% during the 31 '80s. {Consider a substitute statistic} All major demographic groups shared in the economic growth. Between 1982 and 1991, 32 employment of Blacks was up 29% and Hispanics 52%. The employment-to-population ratio for Black Americans during my tenure has averaged a record 55.7%, up significantly from 52.8% during the Carter years. The United States has the highest home ownership rate of all major industrialized VA 34 countries: More than 64% of households own (66%) homes News United States Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics Washington, D.C. 20212 Technical information: Household data: USDL 92-630 National (202) 606-6373 606-6378 TRANSMISSION OF MATERIAL IN THIS State 606-6392 RELEASE IS EMBARGOED UNTIL Establishment data 606-6555 8:30 A.M. (EDT), FRIDAY, Media contact: 606-5902 OCTOBER 2, 1992 THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: SEPTEMBER 1992 Both employment and unemployment were about unchanged in September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. At 7.5 percent in September, the unemployment rate was little different from the August figure but three-tenths of a percentage point below the June rate of 7.8 percent. Nonfarm payroll jobs were little changed in September, after declining in the prior month. In the private sector, job gains in services were accompanied by further job losses in manufacturing and construction. Government employment fell at the local level, as many jobs funded through the special summer youth program came to an end. Unemployment (Household Survey Data) The unemployment rate, 7.5 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, 9.6 million, were little changed in September from the previous month, though both have edged down from June levels. Jobless rates for each of the major demographic groups showed little movement over the month. Rates in September were 7.1 percent for adult men, 6.3 percent for adult women, 20.4 percent for teenagers, 6.7 percent for whites, 13.7 percent for blacks, and 11.9 percent for Hispanics. (See tables A-1 and A-2.) Both the number of job losers and long-term unemployed--two other key unemployment measures--were also little changed in September. (See tables A-5 and A-6.) Total Employment and the Labor Force (Household Survey Data) Total employment held at 117.7 million in September, after seasonal adjustment. The employment-population ratio--the percentage of the working-age population that is employed--was 61.3 percent. This ratio has shown no clear movement for about a year. (See table A-1.) The rapid labor force growth between last November and June ceased over the summer. At 127.3 million in September, the civilian labor force was little changed both over the month and from the June level. The labor force participation rate--the percentage of the working-age population that is either working or looking for work--was 66.3 percent in September, down 0.3 percentage point from its all-time high of 66.6 percent last reached in June and July. (See table A-1.) Interest Rates, Stock Prices, and Mortgage Rates--October 1992 (Percent per annum, except as noted) 3-month High- Mortgage Dis- Corpo- U.S. Treasury constant grade Dow-Jones Volume commit- Commer- CDs Treas. rate maturities muni- industrials NYSE ment Federal count Prime Period funds rate rate cial (sec- bills, Aaa cipal (mill. rate bonds Level Point Percent shares) (FHLMC) FRB-NY 2/ paper ondary (sec. bonds 3 year 10 year 30 year 1/ mkt) mkt) 3/ (Moody's) (S&P) 4/ change change 5/ 2/ 3/ Oct 3.00 6.00 3.23 3.09 2.61 7.92 4.18 6.23 7.30 3254.37 -17.29 -0.53 203.7 1 3.58 6.26 7.33 3200.61 -53.76 -1.65 187.4 2 3.15 3.00 6.00 3.15 3.07 2.63 7.93 . 4.20 Week 3.41 3.00 6.00 3.24 3.10 2.69 7.93 4.26 6.32 7.34 6.27 3253.94 7.93 3.22' 3.00 6.00 3.15- 3.03' 2.64 7.88 · 4.18' 6.24 7.34 . 3179.00 -21.61 -0.68 284.3 . Oct 5 3178.19 -0.81. -0.03. 197.0 . 6 3.06' 3.00 6.00 3.14. 3.04' 2.73 4.24' 6.30 7.41 7 8 9 Week Oct 12 13 14 16 15 16 Week Oct 19 20 21 CEA WORKSHEET 22 23 Week Oct 26 27 28 16 29 30 2/Weekly data are for end of week. 3/Bank-discount basis. 4/Data are for Wednesday. 5/Commitment rate on 80 percent, 30-year, fixed rate conventional mortgages on new and used homes. 1/Weekly data are for 7-day week ended Wednesday. 6/End of reserve settlement period. BCONOM'S REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT 3 TABLE B-69.-Bond yields and interest rates, 1929-91 [Percent per annum] U.S. Treasury securities Corporate High- bonds grade Discount New- Bills Constant (Moody's) munici- Com- Year and home Prime rate rate, Federal (new issues) 1 maturities pal mercial Federal mort- month bonds paper, 6 charged by funds Year and Reserve Aaa (Stand- gage banks 5 Bank of rate month 3-month 3- 10- Baa months 6-month ard & yields New York 5 year year 3-n Poor's) 1929 4.73 5.90 4.27 5.85 5.50-6.00 5.16 1933 0.515 4.49 7.76 4.71 1.73 1.50-4.00 2.56 1939 .023 3.01 4.96 2.76 .59 1.50 1.00 1987: 1940 .014 2.84 4.75 2.50 .56 1.50 1.00 Jan 1941 103 2.77 4.33 2.10 .53 1.50 1.00 Feb 1942 326 2.83 4.28 2.36 .66 1.50 71.00 Mar 1943 373 2.73 3.91 2.06 .69 1.50 1.00 Apr 1944 .375 2.72 3.61 1.86 .73 1.50 71.00 May 1945 .375 2.62 3.29 1.67 .75 1.50 1.00 June 1946 375 2.53 3.05 1.64 81 1.50 1.00 July 1947 .594 2.61 3.24 2.01 1.03 1.50-1.75 1.00 Aug 1948 1.040 2.82 3.47 2.40 1.44 1.75-2.00 1.34 Sept 1949 1.102 2.66 3.42 2.21 1.49 2.00 1.50 Oct 1950 1.218 2.62 3.24 1.98 1.45 2.07 1.59 Nov 1951 1.552 2.86 3.41 2.00 2.16 2.56 1.75 Dec 1952 1.766 2.96 3.52 2.19 2.33 3.00 1.75 1988: 1953 1.931 2.47 2.85 3.20 3.74 2.72 2.52 3.17 1.99 Jan 1954 .953 1.63 2.40 2.90 3.51 2.37 1.58 3.05 1.60 Feb 1955 1.753 2.47 2.82 3.06 3.53 2.53 2.18 3.16 1.89 1.78 Mar 1956 2.658 3.19 3.18 3.36 3.88 2.93 3.31 3.77 2.77 2.73 Apr 1957 3.267 3.98 3.65 3.89 4.71 3.60 3.81 4.20 3.12 3.11 May 1958 1.839 2.84 3.32 3.79 4.73 3.56 2.46 3.83 2.15 1.57 June 1959 3.405 3.832 4.46 4.33 4.38 5.05 3.95 3.97 4.48 3.36 3.30 July 1960 2.928 3.247 3.98 4.12 4.41 5.19 3.73 3.85 4.82 3.53 3.22 Aug 1961 2.378 2.605 3.54 3.88 4.35 5.08 3.46 2.97 4.50 3.00 1.96 Sept 1962 2.778 2.908 3.47 3.95 4.33 5.02 3.18 3.26 4.50 3.00 2.68 Oct 1963 3.157 3.253 3.67 4.00 4.26 4.86 3.23 5.89 3.55 4.50 3.23 3.18 Nov 1964 3.549 3.686 4.03 4.19 4.40 4.83 3.22 5.83 3.97 4.50 3.55 3.50 Dec 1965 3.954 4.055 4.22 4.28 4.49 4.87 3.27 5.81 4.38 4.54 4.04 4.07 1989: 1966 4.881 5.082 5.23 4.92 5.13 5.67 3.82 6.25 5.55 5.63 4.50 5.11 Jan 1967 4.321 4.630 5.03 5.07 5.51 6.23 3.98 6.46 5.10 5.61 4.19 4.22 Feb 1968 5.339 5.470 5.68 5.65 6.18 6.94 4.51 6.97 5.90 6.30 5.16 5.66 Mar 1969 6.677 6.853 7.02 6.67 7.03 7.81 5.81 7.81 7.83 7.96 5.87 8.20 Apr 1970 6.458 6.562 7.29 7.35 8.04 9.11 6.51 8.45 7.71 7.91 5.95 7.18 May 1971 4.348 4.511 5.65 6.16 7.39 8.56 5.70 7.74 5.11 5.72 4.88 4.66 June 1972 4.071 4.466 5.72 6.21 7.21 8.16 5.27 7.60 4.73 5.25 4.50 4.43 July 1973 7.041 7.178 6.95 6.84 7.44 8.24 5.18 7.96 8.15 8.03 6.44 8.73 Aug 1974 7.886 7.926 7.82 7.56 8.57 9.50 6.09 8.92 9.84 10.81 7.83 10.50 Sept 1975 5.838 6.122 7.49 7.99 8.83 10.61 6.89 9.00 6.32 7.86 6.25 5.82 Oct 1976 4.989 5.266 6.77 7.61 8.43 9.75 6.49 9.00 5.34 6.84 5.50 5.04 Nov 1977 5.265 5.510 6.69 7.42 8.02 8.97 5.56 9.02 5.61 6.83 5.46 5.54 Dec 1978 7.221 7.572 8.29 8.41 8.73 9.49 5.90 9.56 7.99 9.06 7.46 7.93 1990: 1979 10.041 10.017 9.71 9.44 9.63 10.69 6.39 10.78 10.91 12.67 10.28 11.19 Jan 1980 11.506 11.374 11.55 11.46 11.94 13.67 8.51 12.66 12.29 15.27 11.77 13.36 Feb 1981 14.029 13.776 14.44 13.91 14.17 16.04 11.23 14.70 14.76 18.87 13.42 16.38 Mar 1982 10.686 11.084 12.92 13.00 13.79 16.11 11.57 15.14 11.89 14.86 11.02 12.26 Apr 1983 8.63 8.75 10.45 11.10 12.04 13.55 9.47 12.57 8.89 10.79 8.50 9.09 May 1984 9.58 9.80 11.89 12.44 12.71 14.19 10.15 12.38 10.16 12.04 8.80 10.23 June 1985 7.48 7.66 9.64 10.62 11.37 12.72 9.18 11.55 8.01 9.93 7.69 8.10 July 1986 5.98 6.03 7.06 7.68 9.02 10.39 7.38 10.17 6.39 8.33 6.33 6.81 Aug 1987 5.82 6.05 7.68 8.39 9.38 10.58 7.73 9.31 6.85 8.21 5.66 6.66 Sept 1988 6.69 6.92 8.26 8.85 9.71 10.83 7.76 9.19 7.68 9.32 6.20 7.57 Oct 1989 8.12 8.04 8.55 8.49 9.26 10.18 7.24 10.13 8.80 10.87 6.93 9.21 Nov 1990 7.51 7.47 8.26 8.55 9.32 10.36 7.25 10.05 7.95 10.01 6.98 8.10 Dec 1991 5.42 5.49. 6.82 7.86 8.77 9.80 6.89 9.32 5.85 8.46 5.45 5.69 1991: Jan High-low High-low Feb Mar 1986: Apr Jan 7.04 7.13 8.41 9.19 10.05 11.44 8.06 10.89 7.62 9.50-9.50 7.50-7.50 8.14 May Feb 7.03 7.08 8.10 8.70 9.67 11.11 7.44 10.68 7.54 9.50-9.50 7.50-7.50 7.86 June Mar 6.59 6.60 7.30 7.78 9.00 10.49 7.07 10.50 7.08 9.50-9.00 7.50-7.00 7.48 July Apr 6.06 6.07 6.86 7.30 8.79 10.19 7.32 10.27 6.47 9.00-8.50 7.00-6.50 6.99 Aug May 6.12 6.16 7.27 7.71 9.09 10.29 7.67 10.22 6.53 8.50-8.50 6.50-6.50 6.85 Sept June 6.21 6.28 7.41 7.80 9.13 10.34 7.98 10.15 6.63 8.50-8.50 6.50-6.50 6.92 Oct July 5.84 5.85 6.86 7.30 8.88 10.16 7.62 10.30 6.24 8.50-8.00 6.50-6.00 6.56 Nov Aug 5.57 5.58 6.49 7.17 8.72 10.18 7.31 10.26 5.83 8.00-7.50 6 00-5.50 6.17 Dec Sept 5.19 5.31 6.62 7.45 8.89 10.21 7.14 10.17 5.61 7.50-7.50 5.50-5.50 5.89 Oct 5.18 5.26 6.56 7.43 8.86 10.24 7.12 10.02 5.61 7.50-7.50 5.50-5.50 5.85 4 Bank-discoun Nov 5.35 5.42 6.46 7.25 8.68 10.07 6.86 9.91 5.69 7.50-7.50 5.50-5.50 6.04 5 For monthly Dec 5.49 5.53 6.43 7.11 8.49 9.97 6.93 9.69 5.88 7.50-7.50 5.50-5.50 6.91 period. 6 Since July 19 1 Rate on new issues within period; bank-discount basis. these rates. Prio 2 Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department. the one at which 3 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and From Octobe assuming, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Rates beginning January 1973 not strictly comparable with prior rates. securities maturi See next page for continuation of table. Sources: Depa Investors Service 378 STATE DAT UNIT OUNCEL OF HOUNOMIC ADVISHRS 12/1/91 Released Feb 1992 SCIENCE & ENGINEERING INDICATORS 1991 TENTH EDITION NATIONAL SCIENCE BOARD 7 Appendix table 6-3. 402 Country share of global market for high-tech manufactures, by industry: 1980-90 (page 1 of 3) 1988 1989 1990 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 (est.) (est.) (est.) Percent HIGH-TECH MANUFACTURES United States 40.4 39.5 38.9 37.8 37.9 36.3 36.9 37.5 37.0 36.0 35.9 Japan 18.4 19.7 20.4 21.6 23.3 23.6 23.4 25.1 26.5 28.4 29.2 West Germany 11.8 11.7 11.8 11.8 11.3 12.0 11.5 10.5 10.1 9.5 9.4 France 6.2 6.1 6.1 5.8 5.3 5.4 5.2 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.7 United Kingdom 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.0 7.9 8.2 8.1 8.2 8.2 8.4 8.5 Italy 3.9 3.7 3.4 3.3 3.2 2.9 3.2 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.8 EC-12 35.2 34.8 34.6 34.7 33.4 34.3 33.7 32.0 31.5 30.0 29.2 Europe 38.5 38.1 38.0 38.0 36.4 37.5 37.1 35.1 34.4 32.4 31.4 Industrial chemicals United States 32.7 33.1 29.8 29.2 28.0 25.8 28.5 31.4 31.2 32.2 32.5 Japan 16.1 14.4 15.3 14.0 14.1 13.4 12.1 13.1 12.7 13.4 14.1 West Germany 16.2 16.9 17.9 19.1 19.5 20.4 20.4 18.5 18.7 18.8 18.4 France 5.0 5.2 5.8 5.5 5.1 5.3 5.3 4.9 5.0 5.1 4.8 United Kingdom 8.8 8.4 9.0 9.4 9.7 10.1 9.5 9.2 9.2 9.3 9.1 Italy 5.1 5.2 4.4 4.4 4.9 4.9 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.0 EC-12 43.0 44.3 45.8 48.1 49.6 52.0 49.9 46.5 47.2 45.9 44.3 Europe 47.9 49.1 51.2 53.3 54.8 57.6 56.0 52.2 52.8 51.3 50.4 Drugs and medicines United States 29.6 29.6 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.0 30.4 31.4 31.4 30.8 29.2 Japan 21.2 21.7 22.1 22.0 21.2 20.7 20.4 19.9 20.1 20.1 20.3 West Germany 13.1 13.1 12.5 12.5 12.7 12.3 12.1 11.4 11.5 11.4 10.9 France 5.6 5.3 4.7 4.4 4.3 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.8 4.0 3.9 United Kingdom 9.3 8.8 9.1 8.8 9.1 9.0 9.2 9.4 9.6 10.0 9.9 Italy 5.5 5.4 5.6 5.4 6.1 6.5 5.8 5.7 6.2 6.3 6.2 EC-12 40,7 40.3 39.1 38.9 39.8 39.8 38.6 38.1 39.0 39.5 39.0 Europe 46.0 45.6 44.6 44.6 45.4 45.9 45.7 45.0 45.7 46.3 47.5 Engines and turbines United States 44.2 37.9 35.0 33.0 35.4 34.8 35.4 35.4 35.8 35.2 34.9 Japan 18.4 16.1 17.9 18.8 18.0 17.0 14.9 15.7 15.5 15.8 15.3 West Germany 11.3 9.9 9.0 9.4 10.3 11.2 10.9 11.2 10.7 10.8 11.6 France 6.8 6.1 5.6 5.7 5.9 5.3 4.9 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.9 United Kingdom. 6.8 18.3 20.5 18.3 17.1 19.7 21.9 20.9 21.4 22.6 22.3 Italy 4.2 3.7 3.1 4.9 5.5 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.0 Appendix A. Appendix Tables EC-12 32.7 40.8 41.3 41.3 41.6 42.7 44.3 43.6 43.3 43.8 44.3 Europe 37.2 40 726 48.1 46.5 48.1 49.6 48.8 48.5 48.9 49.6 (continu 1) 6 "ECONOMIC ENDICATORS" by CEA TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT In the second quarter of 1992, according to revised estimates, current-dollar gross domestic product (GDP) rose 4.3 percent (annual rate) or $62.0 billion. Real GDP (GDP in 1987 dollars) rose 1.5 percent and the implicit price deflator rose 2.7 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 6,000 6,000 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 5,600 5,600 5,200 5,200 GDP 4,800 IN 1987 DOLLARS 4,800 4,400 4,400 4,000 4,000 GDP IN CURRENT DOLLARS 3,600 3,600 3,200 3,200 2,800 2,800 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS it the [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] 1 that geant Personal Gross Exports and imports of goods Government purchases Adden- Gross and services Final Gross two con- private dum: Period domestic Federal sales of domestic 0 the sumption domestic State Gross domestic product expendi- invest- Net Total and pur- national S for Exports Imports National Non- tures ment Total local product chases 1 exports defense defense product opies 1982 3,149.6 2,059.2 503.4 -20.6 282.6 303.2 607.6 266.6 193.8 72.7 341.1 3,165.5 3,170.2 3,179.8 1983 3,405.0 2,257.5 546.7 -51.4 276.7 328.1 652.3 292.0 214.4 77.5 360.3 3,410.6 3,456.5 3,434.4 1984 3,777.2 2,460.3 718.9 -102.7 302.4 405.1 700.8 310.9 233.1 77.8 389.9 3,706.1 3,879.9 3,801.5 1985 4,038.7 2,667.4 714.5 -115.6 302.1 417.6 772.3 344.3 258.6 85.7 428.1 4,014.1 4,154.3 4,053.6 1986 4,268.6 2,850.6 717.6 -132.5 319.2 451.7 833.0 367.8 276.7 91.1 465.3 4,260.0 4,401.2 4,277.7 1987 4,539.9 3,052.2 749.3 -143.1 364.0 507.1 881.5 384.9 292.1 92.9 496.6 4,513.7 4,683.0 4,544.5 1988 4,900.4 3,296.1 793.6 -108.0 444.2 552.2 918.7 387.0 295.6 91.4 531.7 4,884.2 5,008.4 4,908.2 1989 5,250.8 3,523.1 832.3 -79.7 508.0 587.7 975.2 401.6 299.9 101.7 573.6 5,217.5 5,330.5 5,266.8 1990 5,522.2 3,748.4 799.5 -68.9 557.0 625.9 1,043.2 426.4 314.0 112.4 616.8 5,515.9 5,591.1 5,542.9 1991 5,677.5 3,887.7 721.1 -21.8 598.2 620.0 1,090.5 447.3 323.8 123.6 643.2 5,687.7 5,699.3 5,694.9 1982: IV 3,195.1 2,128.7 464.2 -29.5 265.6 295.1 631.6 281.4 205.5 75.9 350.3 3,241.4 3,224.6 3,222.6 1983: IV 3,547.3 2,346.8 614.8 -71.8 286.2 358.0 657.6 289.7 222.8 66.9 367.9 3,527.1 3,619.1 3,578.4 1984: IV 3,869.1 2,526.4 722.8 -107.1 308.7 415.7 727.0 324.7 242.9 81.9 402.2 3,818.1 3,976.2 3,890.2 1985: IV 4,140.5 2,739.8 737.0 -135.5 304.7 440.2 799.2 356.9 268.6 88.3 442.4 4,107.9 4,276.0 4,156.2 1986: IV 4,336.6 2,923.1 697.1 -133.2 333.9 467.1 849.7 373.1 278.6 94.5 476.6 4,355.4 4,469.8 4,340.5 1987: IV 4,683.0 3,124.6 800.2 -143.2 392.4 535.6 901.4 392.5 295.8 96.7 509.0 4,623.7 4,826.2 4,690.5 1988: IV 5,044.6 3,398.2 814.8 -106.0 467.0 573.1 937.6 392.0 296.8 95.2 545.7 5,027.3 5,150.7 5,054.3 1989: IV 5,344.8 3,599.1 825.2 -73.9 523.8 597.7 994.5 405.1 302.5 102.6 589.3 5,314.6 5,418.7 5,365.0 1990: I 5,445.2 3,672.4 820.3 -72.1 541.2 613.3 1,024.7 420.3 311.6 108.7 604.3 5,437.1 5,517.4 5,464.1 II 5,522.6 3,715.3 833.0 -59.9 551.2 611.2 1,034.3 424.4 312.9 111.5 610.0 5,484.9 5,582.6 5,537.0 III 5,559.6 3,787.8 805.7 -76.3 555.9 632.2 1,042.4 422.6 308.4 114.3 619.7 5,549.2 5,635.9 5,577.8 IV 5,561.3 3,818.2 739.0 -67.2 579.7 646.9 1,071.3 438.3 323.2 115.0 633.0 5,592.3 5,628.5 5,592.7 1991: I 5,585.8 3,821.7 705.4 -28.7 573.2 602.0 1,087.5 451.3 332.4 118.8 636.3 5,614.4 5,614.6 5,614.9 II 5,657.6 3,871.9 710.2 -15.3 594.3 609.6 1,090.8 449.9 325.9 124.0 640.8 5,679.4 5,672.9 5,674.3 III 5,713.1 3,914.2 732.8 -27.1 602.3 629.5 1,093.3 447.2 321.9 125.3 646.0 5,712.9 5,740.3 5,726.4 IV 5,753.3 3,942.9 736.1 -16.0 622.9 638.9 1,090.3 440.8 314.7 126.1 649.5 5,744.2 5,769.3 5,764.1 1992: I 5,840.2 4,022.8 722.4 -8.1 628.1 636.2 1,103.1 445.0 313.6 131.4 658.0 5,855.9 5,848.3 5,859.8 II 5,902.2 4,057.1 773.2 -37.1 625.4 662.5 1,109.1 444.8 311.7 133.1 664.3 5,894.1 5,939.4 5,909.3 1 GDP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1 BLONOMIC REPORT of THE PREDIDENT 6 NATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDITURE TABLE B-1.-Gross domestic product, 1959-91 [Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment Fixed investment Gross Nonresidential Change in Year or quarter domestic Non- Durable busi- product Total durable Services Total Pro- goods Resi- goods ducers' ness Total Struc- dential inven- Total durable tures tories equip- ment 1959 494.2 318.1 42.8 148.5 126.8 78.8 74.6 46.5 18.1 28.3 28.1 4.2 1960 513.4 332.4 43.5 153.1 135.9 78.7 75.5 49.2 19.6 29.7 26.3 3.2 1961 531.8 343.5 41.9 157.4 144.1 77.9 75.0 48.6 19.7 28.9 26.4 2.9 1962 571.6 364.4 47.0 163.8 153.6 87.9 81.8 52.8 20.8 32.1 29.0 6.1 1963 603.1 384.2 51.8 169.4 163.1 93.4 87.7 55.6 21.2 34.4 32.1 5.7 1964 648.0 412.5 56.8 179.7 175.9 101.7 96.7 62.4 23.7 38.7 34.3 5.0 1965 702.7 444.6 63.5 191.9 189.2 118.0 108.3 74.1 28.3 45.8 34.2 9.7 1966 769.8 481.6 68.5 208.5 2C4.6 130.4 116.7 84.4 31.3 53.0 32.3 13.8 1967 814.3 509.3 70.6 216.9 221.7 128.0 117.6 85.2 31.5 53.7 32.4 10.5 1968 889.3 559.1 81.0 235.0 243.1 139.9 130.8 92.1 33.6 58.5 38.7 9.1 1969 959.5 603.7 86.2 252.2 265.3 155.2 145.5 102.9 37.7 65.2 42.6 9.7 1970 1,010.7 646.5 85.3 270.4 290.8 150.3 148.1 106.7 40.3 66.4 41.4 2.3 1971 1,097.2 700.3 97.2 283.3 319.8 175.5 167.5 111.7 42.7 69.1 55.8 8.0 1972 1,207.0 767.8 110.7 305.2 351.9 205.6 195.7 126.1 47.2 78.9 69.7 9.9 1973 1,349.6 848.1 124.1 339.6 384.5 243.1 225.4 150.0 55.0 95.1 75.3 17.7 1974 1,458.6 927.7 123.0 380.8 423.9 245.8 231.5 165.6 61.2 104.3 66.0 14.3 1975 1,585.9 1,024.9 134.3 416.0 474.5 226.0 231.7 169.0 61.4 107.6 62.7 -5.7 1976 1,768.4 1,143.1 160.0 451.8 531.2 286.4 269.6 187.2 65.9 121.2 82.5 16.7 1977 1,974.1 1,271.5 182.6 490.4 598.4 358.3 333.5 223.2 74.6 148.7 110.3 24.7 1978 2,232.7 1,421.2 202.3 541.5 677.4 434.0 406.1 274.5 93.9 180.6 131.6 27.9 1979 2,488.6 1,583.7 214.2 613.3 756.2 480.2 467.5 326.4 118.4 208.1 141.0 12.8 1980 2,708.0 1,748.1 212.5 682.9 852.7 467.6 477.1 353.8 137.5 216.4 123.3 -9.5 1981 3,030.6 1,926.2 228.5 744.2 953.5 558.0 532.5 410.0 169.1 240.9 122.5 25.4 1982 3,149.6 2,059.2 236.5 772.3 1,050.4 503.4 519.3 413.7 178.8 234.9 105.7 -15.9 1983 3,405.0 2,257.5 275.0 817.8 1,164.7 546.7 552.2 400.2 153.1 247.1 152.0 -5.5 1984 3,777.2 2,460.3 317.9 873.0 1,269.4 718.9 647.8 468.9 175.6 293.3 178.9 71.1 1985 4,038.7 2,667.4 352.9 919.4 1,395.1 714.5 689.9 504.0 193.4 310.6 185.9 24.6 1986 4,268.6 2,850.6 389.6 952.2 1,508.8 717.6 709.0 492.4 174.0 318.4 216.6 8.6 1987 4,539.9 3,052.2 403.7 1,011.1 1,637.4 749.3 723.0 497.8 171.3 326.5 225.2 26.3 1988 4,900.4 3,296.1 437.1 1,073.8 1,785.2 793.6 777.4 545.4 182.0 363.4 232.0 16.2 1989 5,244.0 3,517.9 459.8 1,146.9 1,911.2 837.6 801.6 570.7 193.1 377.6 230.9 36.0 1990 5,513.8 3,742.6 465.9 1,217.7 2,059.0 802.6 802.7 587.0 198.7 388.3 215.7 0 1991 P 5,671.8 3,886.8 445.2 1,251.0 2,190.5 725.3 745.6 550.4 174.5 376.0 195.1 -20.2 1982: IV 3,195.1 2,128.7 246.9 787.3 1,094.6 464.2 510.5 397.7 168.9 228.8 112.8 -46.3 1983: IV 3,547.3 2,346.8 297.7 839.8 1,209.3 614.8 594.6 426.9 154.6 272.3 167.7 20.2 1984: IV 3,869.1 2,526.4 328.2 887.8 1,310.4 722.8 671.8 491.5 184.1 307.3 180.4 51.0 1985: IV 4,140.5 2,739.8 354.4 939.5 1,446.0 737.0 704.4 511.3 195.4 315.9 193.1 32.6 1986: IV 4,336.6 2,923.1 406.8 963.7 1,552.6 697.1 715.9 491.7 168.4 323.3 224.2 -18.8 1987: IV 4,683.0 3,124.6 408.8 1,029.4 1,686.4 800.2 740.9 514.3 180.0 334.3 226.5 59.3 1988: 4,752.4 3,199.1 428.8 1,041.5 1,728.8 770.6 753.8 526.8 176.6 350.2 227.0 16.8 II 4,857.2 3,260.5 433.1 1,062.0 1,765.4 788.4 774.6 544.1 181.4 362.6 230.5 13.8 III 4,947.3 3,326.6 433.5 1,085.8 1,807.3 800.7 783.6 550.3 183.1 367.3 233.3 17.1 IV 5,044.6 3,398.2 452.9 1,105.8 1,839.5 814.8 797.5 560.2 186.8 373.4 237.3 17.3 1989: 5,139.9 3,436.5 449.4 1,120.0 1,867.1 844.7 801.6 565.1 191.1 374.0 236.5 43.2 II 5,218.5 3,490.6 457.2 1,142.5 1,891.0 844.3 802.0 570.2 190.0 380.2 231.8 42.3 III 5,277.3 3,551.7 474.5 1,155.3 1,921.9 826.8 803.5 574.2 194.9 379.3 229.2 23.3 IV 5,340.4 3,592.8 458.0 1,169.8 1,965.0 834.4 799.4 573.4 196.5 376.8 226.0 35.1 1990: 5,422.4 3,667.3 479.9 1,194.9 1,992.5 812.0 815.3 586.3 202.4 384.0 229.0 -3.3 II 5,504.7 3,706.0 464.6 1,200.9 2,040.4 825.9 800.2 580.0 199.5 380.5 220.3 25.6 III 5,570.5 3,785.2 467.1 1,228.4 2,089.6 821.8 807.7 596.3 201.7 394.7 211.4 14.1 IV 5,557.5 3,812.0 451.9 1,246.4 2,113.6 750.9 787.4 585.2 191.2 394.0 202.2 -36.5 1991: 5,589.0 3,827.7 440.7 1,246.3 2,140.7 709.3 748.4 560.0 184.0 375.9 188.4 -39.2 II 5,652.6 3,868.5 440.0 1,252.9 2,175.6 708.8 745.8 554.6 180.0 374.7 191.2 -37.1 III 5,709.2 3,916.4 452.9 1,257.4 2,206.1 740.9 744.5 546.8 169.0 377.8 197.7 -3.6 IV P 5,736.6 3,934.4 447.2 1,247.6 2,239.6 742.3 743.4 540.3 164.8 375.6 203.1 -1.1 See next page for continuation of table. 298 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY 7 D'UNITED STATES OF AMERICAN Directorate of Intelligence Handbook of Economic Statistics, 1991 A Reference Aid Research for this report was completed on 1 August 1991. CPAS 91-10001 September 1991 Figure 5 World Gross National Product and Population, 1990 Percent GNP 21.6 trillion 1990 US $ USSR 12.3 Eastern Europe 2.9 United States 25.4 India 1.2 Brazil 1.8 Other 17.4 Japan 9.8 Other OECD 29.2 Population 5.3 billion persons United States 4.7 Japan 2.3 Eastern Europe 2.3 USSR 5.5 Other OECD 9.1 Brazil 2.9 India 16.0 Other 57.2 331507 8-91 13 Table 1 Selected World Statistics a 1960 1970 1980 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 Gross national product (billion 1990 US $) 7,110.0 11,600.0 16,400.0 18,500.0 19,100.0 19,800.0 20,600.0 21,200.0 21,600.0 Population (million persons, midyear) 3,050.0 3,722.0 4,478.0 4,881.0 4,968.0 5,057.0 5,147.0 5,238.0 5,329.0 Agricultural production index (1980=100) 59.0 79.0 100.0 115.0 116.0 116.0 118.0 122.0 124.0 3,381.8 Exports (billion US $) 129.8 313.1 1,997.8 1,906.9 1,989.1 2,480.3 2,822.8 3,020.5 Crude oil, excluding natural gas liquids (million b/d) 21.0 45.7 59.5 52.9 55.7 55.2 57.5 58.5 59.2 Natural gas (trillion cubic feet) 15.8 37.0 54.0 62.1 63.4 68.2 69.6 71.9 72.6 Hard coal (million metric tons) 1,985.0 2,141.0 2,728.0 3,160.0 3,250.0 3,335.0 3,454.0 3,474.0 3,562.0 Brown coal and lignite (million metric tons) 640.0 794.0 1,005.0 1,200.0 1,220.0 1,245.0 1,255.0 1,255.0 1,175.0 Electricity (billion kilowatt-hours) 2,348.0 4,953.0 8,247.0 9,750.0 9,960.0 10,587.0 11,035.0 11,427.0 11,179.0 Iron ore (million metric tons) 522.0 769.0 896.0 858.0 868.0 883.0 890.0 879.0 893.0 Bauxite (million metric tons) 27.6 57.8 88.8 89.9 88.2 91.9 98.4 105.7 112.2 Pig iron (million metric tons) 259.0 431.0 510.0 490.0 508.0 523.0 551.0 563.0 555.0 Crude steel (million metric tons) 346.0 594.0 714.0 698.0 713.0 734.0 777.0 782.0 732.0 Refined copper (thousand metric tons) NA 7,543.0 8,916.0 9,860.0 9,602.0 9,833.0 10,332.0 10,727.0 10,696.0 Primary aluminum (million metric tons) 4.5 9.7 15.4 16.1 15.4 16.4 17.5 18.0 17.8 Smelter lead (thousand metric tons) 2,313.0 3,292.0 3,205.0 3,403.0 3,150.0 3,284.0 3,301.0 3,261.0 3,216.0 Refined zinc (thousand metric tons) 3,025.0 4,827.0 6,057.0 6,786.0 6,690.0 7,045.0 7,133.0 7,193.0 7,109.0 Primary tin (thousand metric tons) 192.0 227.0 248.0 217.0 182.0 189.0 215.0 231.0 227.0 Mineral fertilizer C (million metric tons) NA 66.3 119.0 133.9 140.1 147.1 149.6 137.6 NA Nitrogen fertilizer C (million metric tons of N) 30.2 59.7 74.7 73.3 77.5 81.8 84.9 NA NA Phosphate fertilizer C (million metric tons of P₂O₃) NA 19.2 33.4 35.5 33.5 36.5 38.0 NA NA Potassium fertilizer C (million metric tons of K₂O) NA 16.9 25.9 28.9 28.4 28.8 31.5 NA NA Synthetic fibers (thousand metric tons) 700.0 4,870.0 10,175.0 12,056.0 11,423.0 12,372.0 11,615.0 11,600.0 11,835.0 Automobiles (thousand units) 12,800.0 22,500.0 28,997.0 32,310.0 32,520.0 33,007.0 34,522.0 35,167.0 35,046.0 1,123.0 Cement (million metric tons) NA 585.0 867.0 945.0 998.0 1,045.0 1,058.0 1,050.0 Grain (million metric tons) 929.0 1,220.0 1,580.0 1,803.0 1,822.0 1,755.0 1,726.0 1,853.0 NA Wheat (million metric tons) 240.0 319.0 446.0 506.0 537.0 512.0 506.0 542.0 599.0 Coarse grain (million metric tons) 414.0 540.0 693.0 824.0 813.0 777.0 728.0 798.0 NA 492.0 513.0 519.0 Rice (million metric tons) 162.0 312.0 396.0 473.0 472.0 464.0 Potatoes (million metric tons) 285.0 312.0 264.0 284.0 290.0 283.0 274.0 279.0 278.0 Sugar (million metric tons) 61.4 76.7 87.7 105.1 101.3 101.8 103.7 104.5 NA Coffee (thousand metric tons) NA 3,566.0 4,810.0 5,800.0 5,151.0 6,351.0 5,684.0 6,021.0 6,040.0 26 Table 2 Selected OECD Countries: Economic Profile, 1990 United Canada Japan European Community States France Italy Nether- United Germany lands Kingdom Eastern Western Aggregative data Population Million persons at midyear 250.4 26.5 123.6 56.4 57.7 14.9 57.4 16.1 63.0 Percent change 0.7 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.3 -1.9 1.4 Gross domestic product Billion 1990 US $ a 5,465.2 516.7 2,115.2 873.6 844.7 218.0 858.3 141.1 1,016.1 Percent real growth 1.0 0.9 5.6 2.8 2.0 3.1 0.8 -15.0 4.6 Per capita (1990 US $) 21,830 19,500 17,110 15,490 14,640 14,630 14,950 8.760 16,130 Industrial production (percent growth) 1.0 0.3 4.6 1.1 -0.7 3.6 -0.8 NA 5.9 Industry Primary energy (million b/d oil equivalent) 34.2 6.4 1.5 2.2 0.7 c 1.4 4.3 1.2 2.7 Electricity (billion kilowatt-hours) 2,997.4 480.7 808.0 400.0 217.0 71.9 317.0 119.0 b 440.0 Crude steel (million metric tons) 89.7 14.5 110.3 19.0 25.4 5.4 17.9 5.6 38.4 Trade Exports, f.o.b. (billion US $) 393.9 131.7 287.6 216.6 170.4 131.8 185.2 NA 420.0 Imports, c.i.f. (billion US $) 516.2 124.8 235.4 234.4 182.0 126.1 222.8 NA 354.8 c Trade balance (billion US $) -122.3 6.8 52.2 -17.8 -11.6 5.7 -37.6 NA 65.2 Living standard indicators CO₂ emissions (metric tons per capita) d 5.34 4.58 2.20 1.56 1.71 2.23 2.67 5.36 3.00 Automobile registrations (units per thousand persons) d 571 448 241 395 398 349 353 208 462 Energy consumption (barrels oil equivalent per capita) b 57 61 24 29 20 37 27 44 32 Consumer prices (percent growth) 5.4 4.8 3.1 3.4 6.1 1.6 9.5 NA 2.7 Life expectancy (years) 76 77 79 76 77 78 75 73 76 Public polution control expenditure (US 1980 $ per 80 126 126 74 12 117 65 NA 111 capita) a Data were converted at US purchasing power equivalents. b Data are for 1989. c Western area only. d Data are for 1988 for the US and 1987 for the other countries. e Data are for 1986. 28 STATISTICAL UNIT Only Jt 2 1992 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS UNPUBLISHED DATA JAN 2, 1992 1/28/92 Comparative Real Gross Domestic Product, Real GDP Per Capita, and Real GDP Per Employed Person 1960-1990 figs popere U.S. Fourteen Countries I. Description Page are not A. Introduction B. General note 2 1 the latest C. Purchasing-power-parity exchange rates 4 D. Data limitations 4 1980 F. Table notes 5 II. Summary Tabulations A. Relative levels of real GDP per capita and per employed new pet person (U.S. =100) B. Average annual percent change in real GDP, GDP per capita, 7 6 of figs GDP per employed person, and employment II. Detailed Tabulations due Thurs or Fri A. Relative levels of real GDP, GDP per capita, and GDP per employed person: Purchasing-power-parity exchange rates 1. Relative levels: U.S.=100 9 2. Relative levels: U.S. 1990 dollars 15 will have B. Trends in real GDP, GDP per capita, and GDP per employed person: new pop Measured in own country price weights 1. Index: 1982=100 21 + new C. Population and employment measures 1. Population 27 2. Employment 33 3. Employment-population ratio 39 date for other than D. Purchasing-power-parity exchange rates for GDP and relative prices 1. Purchasing-power-parity exchange rates 43 2. Comparative price levels: U.S.=100 45 U.S 3. Implicit price deflators for GDP a. Trend index: 1982=100 47 b. Relative index: U.S. and 1982=100 49 1/31 - No E. Supplementary tables: Comparisons at market exchange rates 1. Nominal GDP per capita and per employed person: U.S.=100 51 NEW FIGS 2. Market exchange rates 55 To BE Prepared by: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Productivity and Technology, January 1992. AVAILABLE 6/17/92 here are the latest figures. BUT CHF 8/4/92 No NEW DATA YET CORRECTED US GDP PER CAPITA JAN 22 1992 -17- RELATIVE LEVELS: PURCHASING-POWER-PARITY EXCHANGE RATES REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, REAL GDP PER CAPITA, AND REAL GDP PER EMPLOYED PERSON OUTPUT BASED ON OECD PRICE WEIGHTS (U.S. 1990 DOLLARS) YEAR UNITED CANADA JAPAN KOREA AUSTRIA BELGIUM DENMARK FRANCE GERMANY STATES VNIPA GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA 1960 12322 8753 3621 1182 5716 6173 7558 6617 7474 1961 12443 8846 4111 1215 5987 6458 7949 6909 7709 1962 12884 9296 4360 1206 6093 6770 8324 7239 7969 1963 13225 9599 4772 1280 6301 7015 8297 7492 8111 1964 13781 10048 5347 1367 6637 7436 8969 7899 8564 1965 14366 10518 5561 1410 6783 7634 9326 8201 8925 1966 15056 11024 6094 1542 7115 7826 9466 8557 9094 1967 15279 11145 6679 1595 7275 8088 9705 8889 9047 1968 15749 11559 7446 1735 7561 8399 10033 9203 9512 1969 16018 12004 8257 1932 8008 8935 10611 9767 10124 1970 15827 12144 8945 2055 8548 9479 10747 10235 10539 1971 16114 12682 9234 2213 8946 9791 10957 10624 10744 1972 16707 13265 9859 2293 9446 10270 11469 10998 11131 1973 17408 14132 10369 2575 9852 10843 11814 11504 11616 1974 17140 14542 10165 2751 10223 11253 11651 11784 11632 2/11/92 1975 16837 14701 10328 2909 10213 11055 11539 11698 11511 U.S. 1976 17498 15406 10644 3241 10699 11652 12255 12146 12184 1977 18104 15771 11036 3539 11182 11694 12417 12481 12558 1978 18777 16321 11469 3865 11197 12005 12561 12844 12949 using 1979 19038 16789 12004 4088 11748 12252 12973 13203 13475 Using ad pop pop 1980 18715 16829 12342 3903 12091 12768 12895 13349 13574 18,718. 1981 18845 17232 12691 4127 12031 12650 12788 13431 13572 18,861 1982 18252 16514 13004 4295 12145 12830 13182 13698 13453 18,279. 1983 18778 16897 13264 4695 12423 12883 13527 13730 13711 18,818 1984 19754 17825 13743 5074 12591 13144 14127 13855 14149 19,808- GDPmawpop 5513.8 1985 20185 18536 14340 5372 12892 13251 14727 14059 14453 20,254 1986 20573 19009 14628 5983 13029 13462 15242 14355 14764 20,655. 1987 21004 19574 15153 6640 13269 13768 15266 14615 14972 21,101' 1988 21619 20204 16026 7332 13745 14376 15340 15157 15425 21,731° 1989 21943 20545 16697 7708 14240 14875 15511 15675 15766 22,068. 251420 990 21931 20449 17571 8303 14711 15313 15741 16046 16231 22,056 21,931 TABLE CONTINUED ON FOLLOWING PAGE. 22,056 Table 8.2 seB 1990 Us/ger us 35.9 % higher Jap US25.5+ -18- RELATIVE LEVELS: PURCHASING-POWER-PARITY EXCHANGE RATES REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, REAL GDP PER CAPITA, AND REAL GDP PER EMPLOYED PERSON OUTPUT BASED ON OECD PRICE WEIGHTS (U.S. 1990 DOLLARS) JAN 22 1992 YEAR ITALY NETHER- NORWAY SWEDEN UNITED LANDS KINGDOM GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA 1960 5503 7403 6896 8149 8095 1961 5917 7516 7258 8566 8295 1962 6244 7731 7394 8881 8307 1963 6549 7877 7615 9303 8603 1964 6680 8441 7938 9863 8987 1965 6847 8767 8293 10144 9127 1966 7209 8895 8535 10258 9269 1967 7677 9261 8993 10522 9471 1968 8130 9781 9117 10841 9821 1969 8572 10327 9448 11304 9907 1970 8970 10782 9572 11927 10117 1971 9054 11100 9944 11958 10342 1972 9233 11350 10378 12195 10565 1973 9820 11787 10728 12656 11374 1974 10288 12159 11218 13022 11270 1975 9959 12044 11621 13303 11196 1976 10564 12557 12354 13396 11613 1977 10915 12771 12742 13134 11743 1978 11237 13007 13268 13326 12161 1979 11875 13225 13893 13807 12431 1980 12351 13231 14431 14011 12171 1981 12400 13047 14508 13998 12039 1982 12396 12805 14503 14145 12211 1983 12475 12934 15127 14395 12670 1984 12775 13292 15950 14954 12853 1985 13074 13581 16739 15262 13293 1986 13434 13782 17380 15563 13783 1987 13829 13804 17641 15953 14380 1988 14363 14088 17460 16248 14902 1989 14777 14571 17450 16482 15140 1990 15034 14979 17693 16399 15206 TABLE CONTINUED ON FOLLOWING PAGE. GDP per Capita As of 9/21/92 1990 Dollars 25,000 22,056 20,000 18,718 17,571 16,231 15,000 13,574 12,342 10,000 5,000 0 1980 1990 U.S. Japan Germany Source: Department of Labor. Note: Adjusted with PPP exchange rates. 3 leadership in Congress has repeatedly refused to pass my economic growth proposals or to present me with their own proposals that would have any chance of accelerating the growth of our economy. Beginning in 1989, the Congress has bottled-up my most important tax proposals through parliamentary gamesmanship and, as recently as last March, they chose to send me a jobs-destroying tax increase bill rather than pass my proposals which would have created a half million new jobs. Send me a Congress more interested in creating jobs than in creating political divisions and we will get growth up. Clinton "The old economic ideas of the last two decades did not produce growth, did not create upward mobility, and most important, didn't prepare millions and millions and millions of our people to compete." Evaluation This claim is incorrect. Response I suggest the following which builds on the campaign response: o The economic ideas of the Carter years were clearly failures. The 1980s, however, were a different story. Growth: Since 1982, following the Carter inflation and subsequent disinflation, real GDP growth averaged 2.6 percent per year. (National Income Accounts). Upward mobility: During the 1980s, real median family income rose almost 9 percent. The proportion of families with real incomes below $15,000 fell almost 9 percent while the proportion of families with real incomes above $50,000 rose by almost 30 percent. 5.3 million families left the middle class by earning a lot more money and moving up. (NB: Note that real median household income fell by 3.5 percent in 1991. Data to update the calculations above will not be available until late September). (CEA calculations). Competitiveness: The U.S. regained its position as the world's leading exporter, beating out Japan and Germany, and in the process created 1.7 million export-related jobs. (Department of Commerce). PAGE 1 Federal News Service, AUGUST 21, 1992 not only the German example, but the state of Hawaii, which has community rating, primary health clinics, broad-based groups of health care providers, and which charges 50 percent less for health insurance than the American average. We can do it if we have the will to do it. (Applause.) The third principle is that we have to invest today in the foundations of tomorrow. I was criticized last night for wanting to invest 220 billion new dollars over the next four years. My opponent didn't point out that I also called for $140 billion of spending cuts over the next four years. We need to increase real investment of your tax dollars by $50 billion a year because all our competitors are doing more. Nine nations now spend a higher percentage of their income on kindergarten through twelfth grade education than we do. Virtually every country in the world with an advanced economy spends a much higher percentage of their income on infrastructure, on transportation and communications than we do, and we have got to compete. We've got to rebuild our railroads, our highways, our bridges, invest in a national information network to link every library, and every laboratory, and every classroom, and every company, and every home by the year 2015. Wouldn't it be nice, when our kids come home, if they could have computers that link them up to the Library of Congress, not just to a video game? (Applause.) We need to take every last dollar by which we reduce defense and reinvest it in an American economy for the 21st century, creating high-speed rail networks, LEVEL 1 - - 1 OF 1 STORY Copyright 1992 Federal Information Sytems Corporation Federal News Service AUGUST 21, 1992, FRIDAY SECTION: WHITE HOUSE BRIEFING LENGTH: 7507 words HEADLINE: REMARKS BY GOVERNOR BILL CLINTON (D-AR) TO THE DETROIT ECONOMISTS CLUB DETROIT, MICHIGAN KEYWORD: ECONOMIST CLUB CLINTON BODY: GOV. CLINTON: Thank you very much. Thank you very much. Governor Blanchard and distinguished members and guests of the Economic Club of Detroit, I really appreciate that introduction Jim gave me. After the going over I got last night, I need it. (Laughter.) But I'm always a little skeptical of those TM TM TM LEXIS:NEXIS® LEXIS-NEXIS® LEXIS-NEXIS® Services of Mead Data Central, Inc. Recyclable CLINTON BUDGET PROPOSAL (Deficit impact in $ billions) 4-Year 1993 1994 1995 1996 Total DEFICIT REDUCTION Defense: Unspecified cuts beyond Bush -2.0 -8.5 -10.5 -16.5 -37.5 Intelligence cuts -1.0 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -5.5 -5.7 -- -- -- -5.7 Procurement reform Inventory system reform -2.3 -2.5 -2.5 -2.5 -9.8 Subtotal defense cuts -11.0 -12.5 -14.5 -20.5 -58.5 International: Consolidate overseas -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.8 broadcasting system (USIA) -2.0 -- -- -- -2.0 Unspecified cuts Subtotal international -2.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -2.8 Subtotal defense/international -13.1 -12.7 -14.8 -20.8 -61.3 Vague reforms and administrative gimmicks: Unspecified 3% admin cut -2.0 -5.0 -6.5 -8.5 -22.0 Line-item veto of pork barrel -3.8 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -9.8 projects Federal agency energy conservation -- -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -2.6 -- -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -6.0 Reform debt financing -17.1 RTC reform -4.0 -4.0 -4.5 -4.6 Subtotal gimmicks -9.8 -13.9 -15.9 -18.0 -57.5 Real reforms: Workforce reduction -2.0 -4.3 -4.5 -4.5 -15.3 White House staff cut (*) (*) (*) (*) (*) Legislative branch cut -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 University projects -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -3.1 USDA field offices (*) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.5 HUD grants Freeze consultants -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.8 Increase nuclear waste disposal fees (*) (*) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 Consolidate social services -- -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.8 programs Terminate boney price supports (*) (*) -- -- (*) Medicare Part B premiums -0.6 -1.0 -1.0 -1.8 -4.4 Subtotal real reforms -3.7 -6.8 -7.2 -8.1 -25.9 Total spending cuts -26.6 -33.3 -37.8 -46.8 -144.6 ID: SEP 05'92 19:16 No.009 P.04 5 42%) are additional and irresponsible cuts in America's national security programs. In short, at most 18% of the cuts proposed by Clinton could even remotely be termed "real." o Clinton's administrative gimmicks are the kind of smoke and mirrors "cuts" that, like the innerent contradiction of a Clinton's "deficit reduction" will really raise spending. 13 "pro-growth strategy" that raises taxes, confirms that of the $145 billion in spending cuts, Clinton would only terminate one federal program -- the honey bee program -- which Senator Gore has voted for on four occasions. This stands in sharp contrast to the President who proposed in his FY93 Budget to eliminate 246 federal programs, saving an estimated $5 billion." o In an obvious "me-too" of the President, Clinton calls for a line-item veto, but estimates that he would get just $10 billion in savings over four years. Unfortunately, it is the Democratic Congress that has refused time and again to give the President line-item veto authority. What are they waiting for? Were Clinton truly serious about a line-item veto, he would write the Democratic leaders tomorrow and urge its passage. If a line-item veto were passed this year, with a stroke of the pen President Bush would save more than $10 billion this year alone. 0 Spending reform and control of entitlement spending are needed -- a fact acknowledged by even Democrat Barbara Jordan when she spoke before the Democratic Convention. Evidently Governor Clinton was not listening. Not only does President Bush understand this problem, he has already proposed ways to stop out-of-control spending. In this year's budget, the President proposed to cap the growth of non-Social Security entitlement programs, saving nearly $180 billion over the next four years." Illusory Deficit Reduction o By his own numbers, Clinton would add one trillion dollars to the national debt over the next four years. 16 But, even 13 See Table 1. 14 Ibid. 15 Estimates of savings from a CPI-based cap on growth in entitlement spending, Mid-Session Review of the Budget, Appendix I, P. 415. 16 See Table 3. ID: SEP 05'92 19:16 No.009 P.05 6 this estimate significantly understates the cost of Clinton's spending programs and overstates his claimed budgetary savings. Once again, Clinton's numbers do not add up. -- Over $110 billion of his "savings" arise through unspecified gimmicks, questionable revenues, and vague proposals such as "RTC management reforms. - Clinton fails to include in his spending estimates massive new spending promises that he repeats almost daily - $197 billion for more government-controlled health care" and $45 billion for "middle income" tax cuts." 0 The likely impact of Clinton's program over four years is at least $200 billion in deficit spending on top of the $1 trillion addition to the national debt he already acknowledges. o The Clinton plan relies on a grossly overstated estimate of future real GDP growth, a so-called "rosy scenario." For 1993, Clinton's "moderate" growth path forecasts real growth of 4.6% -- a full percentage point higher than anyone else's estimates, even those by the pro-Democrat Congressional Budget office." o The hypocrisy, and the real danger of the Clinton budget, is that the growth he must assume in order to claim a reduction in the deficit is a fantasy based not on economics, but on 17 "Putting People First: A National Economic Strategy," June 20, 1992. Cuts designated as vague reforms or administrative gimmicks are grouped in Table 1. 18 Preliminary CBO estimate of the cost of play-or-pay, (H.R. 3205, August 2, 1991). 19 Congressional Joint Committee on Taxation scoring of FICA and dependent credits included in H.R. 4210. 20 This statistic represents the difference between the Clinton deficit as advertised, and the "real" Clinton deficit. See Table 4. 21 A one percent increase in the growth rate will make up the difference between the "real" Clinton deficit and the CBO baseline. See CBO, The Economic and Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 1993-1997, January 1992, p. 37. Clinton's plan also contains a "strong" growth path that would require 5.5% real GDP growth in 1993 according to an analysis by the Minority Staff of the Joint Economic Committee. ID: SEP 05'92 19:17 No. 009 P.06 CABLE 1 CLINTON BUDGET PROPOSAL (Deficit impact in $ billions) 4-Year 1993 1994 1995 1996 Total DEFICIT REDUCTION Defense: Unspecified cuts beyond Bush -2.0 -8.5 -10.5 -16.5 -37.5 Intelligence cuts -1.0 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -5.5 --S.T ---- -- -5.7 Inventory system reform -2.3 -2.5 -2.5 -2.5 -9.8 Subtotal defense cuts -11.0 -12.5 -14.5 -20.5 -58.5 International: Consolidate overseas broadcasting system (USIA) -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.8 Unspecified cuts -20 -- -- | -2.0 Subtotal international -2.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -2.8 Subtotal defense/international -13.1 -12.7 -14.8 -20.8 -61.3 Vague reforms and administrative gimmicks: Unspecified 3% admin cut -2.0 -5.0 -6.5 -8.5 -22.0 Line-item veto of pork barrel projects -3.8 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -9.8 Federal agency energy conservation -- -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -2.6 Reform debt financing -- -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -6.0 RTC reform -4.0 -4.0 -4.5 -4.6 -17.1 Subtotal gimmicks -9.8 -13.9 -15.9 -18.0 -57.5 Real reforms: Workforce reduction -2.0 -4.3 -4.5 -4.5 -15.3 White House staff cut (*) (") (*) (*) (*) Legislative branch cut -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 University projects -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -3.1 USDA field offices (*) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 HUD grants -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.5 Freeze consultants -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.8 Increase nuclear waste disposal fees (*) (*) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 Consolidate social services programs -- -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.8 Terminate honey price supports (*) (*) -- -- (*) Medicare Part B premiums. -0.6 -1.0 -1.0 -1.8 -4.4 Subtotal real reforms -3.7 -6.8 -7.2 -8.1 -25.9 Total spending cuts -26.6 -33.3 -37.8 --46.8 -144.6 ID: SEP 05'92 19:14 No.009 P.01 BUSH QUAYLE 92 Issues Fax Transmittal Date Time No Pages 6(incusive) From: LA FOLLME Fax No: 202-336-7943 Phone No: 202-336-7232 To: JENNIFER GROSSMAN Organization: SPRECHWRIME Fax No: 456.6218 Phone No: Information: PALE 1 is COVER Siters PPs 2-4 (NumBreno 4-6 on TOP ) on is "PHony cuts" SPENDINT P6 5 (NUMBAROP pp FonTop GIVES LINE TEMS FOR SPENDING wis Confidentiality Notice The document accompanying this telecopy contains information that belongs to the sender which is confidential and may be legally privileged. This information is Intended for the use of the individual or entity named above. If you are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any disclosure, copying, distribution, or the taking of any action in reliance on the contents of this telecopied information is strictly prohibited. If you have received this telecopy in error, please immediately notify us by telephone to arrange for return of the original document to us. 1030 15th St. NW, Washington, DC 20005 Paid for by Bush-Quayle '92 General Committee, Inc. Printed on Recycled Paper ID: SEP 05'92 19:15 No. 009 P.02 FACT SHEET BUSH QUAYLE Issues Office 92 August 10, 1992 THE CLINTON ECONOMIC PLAN: EXCLUDER TAXES, FEWER JOBS "Clinton's program brims with cliches and dubious calculations His plan seems slick because it is." - Robert J. Samuelson Washington Post, July 1, 1992 Summary: Clinton Returns to "Tax and Spend" Bill Clinton is selling his "National Economic Strategy" as a way to "put people first." What Clinton will really do is put government first. His plan will impose the largest single tax increase in American history, followed by over $219 billion in new spending.¹ Hard-working Americans investing in new jobs and economic growth will be the first to be hit by the Clinton tax hikes and the last to be helped by new federal spending. Clinton pretends his plan would reduce the deficit, when in fact it would worsen it with massive new spending and new constraints on economic growth. Instead of addressing the largest threat to our future -- the deficit - the Clinton plan would return America to a tired formula of higher taxes and higher spending. | The Clinton plan would put the United States further into debt and farther from a balanced budget. Bill Clinton unabashedly proposes to raise taxes by at least $150 billion -- the largest first- and four-year tax increase in our country's history -- and use the proceeds to increase spending by at least $219 billion. 1 See Table 2, Senate Budget Committee Minority Staff Summary of Clinton Budget Proposal, duplicated from "Putting People First: A National Economic Strategy," June 20, 1992. The estimate excludes the cost of Clinton's health care reform proposal. If included, spending increases exceeding $416.5 billion would result. Paid for by Bush Quayle "92 Primary Committee, inc, 1030 15th St, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20005 ID: SEP 05'92 19:15 No.009 P.03 4 cost of health coverage rose to $150 per month per employee, they would opt to close their doors. Another 24 percent said they would keep their business open but would lay off employees. All told, the NFIB concluded, "between one and two million small business jobs would evaporate. #10 In sum, mandates are taxes on the use of labor and, as such, will particularly damage the employment prospects and wages of low skilled workers -- the very group Clinton claims to want to help. o All told, Clinton's new taxes and mandates on business will cost American businesses $101 billion next year - fully 54% of their 1991 profits." At a time when the economy is starting to grow again, any plan that takes away half of American business' profits - profits that are being invested in new workers and better products - is bound to cost jobs. o In addition to whatever jobs Clinton would lose through his economic plan, Clinton and Gore have endorsed dramatic increases in Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards. This radical and unwise step would put at risk between 150,000 and 300,000 jobs. of these jobs, 142,000 are auto workers, including 4,500 GM workers in Senator Gore's home-state of Tennessee." o Clinton's $220 billion transfer from the free-market through the federal agencies and back to the private sector will generate neither growth nor incremental jobs. Rather, Clinton will replace productive investment and real growth with massive spending in huge new government bureaucracies. Spending couched as "investment" is no more than spending by another name. K Phony Spending Cuts 0 Clinton claims to cut spending by $145 billion, but the numbers do not add up. of the alleged $145 billion in spending cuts, $57.5 billion (or 40%) are administrative gimmicks and unspecified measures, and $61.3 billion (or 10 "Small-business jobs, growth would decline under play-or- pay health plan," National Federation of Independent Business, August 7, 1992. 11 Figure for total after-tax profits of U.S. corporations from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 12 Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Association of the United States, March 1992.