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Job Corps Center-Excelsior Springs, Missouri 9/11/92 [OA 7580]
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1
1
McGroarty/Walters
September 10, 1992
8:00 p.m.
[JCMO]
PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS: JOBS CORPS CENTER
EXCELSIOR SPRINGS, MISSOURI
SEPTEMBER 11, 1992
12:40 P.M.
Thank you, Booker [T. Jones, President and CEO of the
company that runs the Job Corps Center], for those kind words.
Governor John Ashcroft; John Douglas and Wayne Jenkins from the
Department of Labor; and John Thomas, president of the student
body here, thank you. /
Just before I came here today, I met with a home-team hero -
PressRelease
- Derrick Thomas, who runs the Third and Long Foundation, when
he's not running down opposing quarterbacks. On Sundays you know
him as Number 58 -- but today, he's number 832: America's 832nd TWP
Daily Point of Light. // Actually, when I got right up next to
Derrick, I didn't know whether "Point of Light" would do it -- I
thought maybe we should name him a lighthouse. //
And I know Derrick will agree when I say it's great to see
the team spirit here at Job Corps. //
We're in a political season so tough it makes what goes on
in Arrowhead Stadium seem like two-hand touch. So when you're
all done with your training, I'd like to invite all the
carpenters here back to Washington. There's a certain House on
Capitol Hill that's in need of a little renovation. // You know
Bob Vila's (Veel-ah's) show: This Old House? Well, there's an
old House of Representatives back in Washington that hasn't been
cleaned out for 38 years. //
RichWmson
8/2/92
2
Let me tell you why I'm here at Jobs Corps cutting into your
lunch hour. I've just seen first-hand the fruits of your labor - schedule
- the skills you'll use to succeed in an economy that seems to
change by the day. Today, I want talk to you about your world:
Tell you how America as a nation is ready to move forward to a
future of peace and prosperity -- if we but make the right
choices.
As we gather today, I am proud to be the first President who
can say: The Cold War is over -- and freedom finished first.
But with change comes new challenges. The defining challenge of
the 90s is to win the peace -- to win the competition of the new
global economy. // In the 21st Century, America must be not
only a military superpower, but an export superpower and an
economic superpower.
We start with an honest appraisal of our weaknesses -- and
our strengths. My opponent talks about an America in decline --
but just remember: If you want to talk to the most productive
workers in the world -- you don't have to fly to Japan ... you
don't have to hop a flight to Germany: You can look right here
in the USA -- because the American worker is the most productive
$
industrial
D
SMU
worker in the world. //
5/16/92
How do we guarantee that our workers will still be the
world's most productive -- and that there will be plenty of high-
wage jobs in your future? / Yesterday in Detroit I set out a
strategy -- what I call my Agenda for American Renewal: Six
challenges we must meet to move America forward. And I set a
USTR
3
goal: Today our national economy is nearing $6 trillion dollars.
My agenda will make America the world's first $10 trillion dollar
economy by the first years of the 21st Century. //
Detroit
My Agenda for American Renewal starts with these facts:
Right now, in our factories, 1 of every 6 manufacturing jobs is
A
tied to trade. On our farms, produce from 1 in every 3 acres we
X
harvest will be sold abroad. In the century ahead --- in your
lifetimes -- the percentage of your paycheck that comes from what
America sells abroad is only going to grow. The bottom line in
our new world economy is this: Exports equal jobs. //
I have faith that if we open foreign markets, our workers
will satisfy the demand for our products. So my agenda starts
Detrit
with a global trade strategy -- a network of new free trade
6
arrangements from Chile to Czechoslovakia, from the Pacific
nations to Poland. Give America the opportunity, and I believe
we can respond to the needs of any customer -- anywhere.
But developed economies need developing minds. That's why
my Agenda for American Renewal takes aim at the critical
challenge -- preparing our children for the new century ahead.
That means a revolution in American education.
Competition works in our economy -- it's time to bring some
competition to the classroom. I have a GI Bill for Kids -- which
would give thousand dollar scholarships to every parent, so that
they can choose where their kid should go to school. Whether
Ed.
Rounditble
it's the public school across town or the private or religious 6/25/92
4
school across the street, I believe parents, not the government,
should decide which school is best for their kids. //
Now, the third key component of my agenda for American
renewal: Helping America's businesses sharpen their competitive
edge. Small businesses create 2/3 of all new American jobs
--
and they're the first to turn change to advantage in a fast-
5/14/92
moving economy. When you finish this program, a small business
is where you'll most likely end up with a job.
We must ease the burden on small business. Small businesses
need relief -- from tight credit / over-regulation / taxation /
and litigation.
Let me expand on this last point. America has become the
Detroit
land of the lawsuit -- each year we spend $200 billion on direct
of
costs to lawyers./ I think that's crazy, and I have a plan to
put an end to crazy lawsuits. America won't work until we start
suing each other less -- and start caring for one another more.
//
Fourth, my Agenda for American Renewal means promoting
economic security for working Americans. That means health care
reform -- to make health insurance affordable to all Americans,
and make sure you're never locked into a job you want to leave
because you're worried you may lose your health care coverage.
It means a retirement or pension plan that you can take with you
throughout your career.
Fifth, our Agenda for American Renewal must mean an America
that leaves no one behind. That means programs that break the
5
cycle of dependency. That help public housing tenants become
homeowners
that help people on welfare find work
...
that
help people without hope take heart. We don't owe every American
a living -- but we do owe every American an opportunity. //
And finally, my agenda won't be complete until we bring
change to one of the most hide-bound institutions in America:
The government. I call my idea "right-sizing" government. But
whatever we call it, I know you'll agree: Government is too big,
and it spends too much. //
My opponent wants to make big government even bigger. To be
precise, he's already on record for at least $220 billion dollars
X
in new spending --- and $150 billion in new taxes.
ALEC 8/6/92
Now my opponent likes to tell you he'll only raise taxes on
the rich. But I'll tell you this: Bill Clinton's going to end
up taxing all working Americans for the same reason outlaw Willie
Sutton robbed banks: "Because that's where the money is." //
Well, I don't think people are undertaxed. I think
government spends too much. That's why my agenda includes a new
idea to drive down the deficit -- by giving the American taxpayer
power to earmark a full 10 percent of his federal tax dollars for
one purpose, and one purpose only: to pay down the national
debt. It is time to rightsize our government.
My new plan is comprehensive -- filled with specific answers
to questions Americans are asking around their dining room tables
these days. One of those questions is -- how will I stay ahead
of the changes in the world economy?
Robert
6
Holl
According to some studies, just 2 percent of you will work
the same job from now until retirement. The average worker can
expect to change jobs 10 times during the course of his career.
Econ Rpt.
of Pres.
You need real-world security -- skills you can put to work now -
1991
- and ten years from now. //
But just as you can't drive a nail without a hammer, you
can't build a dream without a job. You're here at Job Corps
because you know that it takes more and better skills to earn
good jobs -- and you decided you were going to do something about
it. //
Well, America has work to do -- and we can't let your drive
go to waste. // Maybe fifty years ago, a strong back might have
been enough to get a good job. In our changing economy, it's not
enough any more. What you earned yesterday with sweat -- you've
got to earn tomorrow with skills.
That's why last month, I announced new initiatives to focus
federal job training on the kind of real-world skills Americans
13
like you -- and Americans of all ages need in this new world
economy.
To help young people find that first job -- we have a
program called the Youth Training Corps, modeled after Job Corps
14
programs like this one, to get inner-city kids off the mean
streets, and give them a second chance to build the skills they
need to succeed. For older workers who've lost their job -- or
worry that next pay envelope may bring a pink slip, we've
developed a new idea called Skill Grants. We want to give
15
7
workers vouchers worth $3000 dollars -- to be used towards the
15
training program of their choice.
And let me say: choice is critical. You know what I mean.
I don't see job training as an excuse to shoehorn you into
whatever program has an open slot, or the next box on some
bureaucrat's checklist. I want to give you the power to go where
you want to get training -- in the kind of career that you
choose. //
These are some of the ideas I'm talking about to Renew
America. Many are underway, others are just beginning.
You see, I'm committed in this campaign -- to providing
serious answers -- to the questions Americans are asking about
our future. I have diagnosed the problem, and offered serious
solutions -- not all of which are popular. And I'm asking for a
mandate -- to put my solutions into action, and get this country
moving.
For now at least, my opponent has chosen a different
strategy. Rather than talk about what he wants for America, he
spends his time belittling my ideas, and playing on fears.
One example. I want to talk about limiting the growth of
government spending -- which my opponent says he agrees with.
But instead of offering any ideas of his own, he simply says --
watch out seniors, watch out Veterans.
Governor Clinton is running a Freddie Krueger candidacy,
"he's more interested in playing on people's fears, than in
dealing with this country's problems.
8
I know times are tough, and that Americans have real
concerns. But I reject a candidate who'll say anything to get
elected. I'm going to talk about real ideas -- ideas that are
right for America.
You see, we stand on the cusp of a new age in our nation.
We have changed the world, and our children sleep safer because
of our actions. Now we can devote the same energy, the same
determination we used to win the Cold War -- to building a safer
and more secure America here at home.
With the agenda I've outlined today, I believe we can Renew
America, and build a better and brighter future.
Thank you all for this warm welcome -- and may God bless
this great nation, the United States of America.
# # #
McGroarty/Walters
September 10, 1992
8:00 p.m.
[JCMO]
PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS: JOBS CORPS CENTER
EXCELSIOR SPRINGS, MISSOURI
SEPTEMBER 11, 1992
12:40 P.M.
Thank you, Booker [T. Jones, President and CEO of the
company that runs the Job Corps Center], for those kind words.
Governor John Ashcroft; John Douglas and Wayne Jenkins from the
Department of Labor; and John Thomas, president of the student
body here, thank you. /
Just before I came here today, I met with a home-team hero -
- Derrick Thomas, who runs the Third and Long Foundation, when
he's not running down opposing quarterbacks. On Sundays you know
him as Number 58 -- but today, he's number 832: America's 832nd
Daily Point of Light. // Actually, when I got right up next to
Derrick, I didn't know whether "Point of Light" would do it -- I
thought maybe we should name him a lighthouse. //
And I know Derrick will agree when I say it's great to see
the team spirit here at Job Corps. //
We're in a political season so tough it makes what goes on
in Arrowhead Stadium seem like two-hand touch. So when you're
all done with your training, I'd like to invite all the
carpenters here back to Washington. There's a certain House on
Capitol Hill that's in need of a little renovation. // You know
Bob Vila's (Veel-ah's) show: This Old House? Well, there's an
old House of Representatives back in Washington that hasn't been
cleaned out for 38 years. //
2
Let me tell you why I'm here at Jobs Corps cutting into your
lunch hour. I've just seen first-hand the fruits of your labor -
- the skills you'll use to succeed in an economy that seems to
change by the day. Today, I want talk to you about your world:
Tell you how America as a nation is ready to move forward to a
future of peace and prosperity -- if we but make the right
choices.
As we gather today, I am proud to be the first President who
can say: The Cold War is over -- and freedom finished first.
But with change comes new challenges. The defining challenge of
the 90s is to win the peace -- to win the competition of the new
global economy. 11 In the 21st Century, America must be not
only a military superpower, but an export superpower and an
economic superpower.
We start with an honest appraisal of our weaknesses -- and
our strengths. My opponent talks about an America in decline --
but just remember: If you want to talk to the most productive
workers in the world -- you don't have to fly to Japan ... you
don't have to hop a flight to Germany: You can look right here
in the USA -- because the American worker is the most productive
worker in the world. //
How do we guarantee that our workers will still be the
world's most productive -- and that there will be plenty of high-
wage jobs in your future? / Yesterday in Detroit I set out a
strategy -- what I call my Agenda for American Renewal: Six
challenges we must meet to move America forward. And I set a
3
goal: Today our national economy is nearing $6 trillion dollars.
My agenda will make America the world's first $10 trillion dollar
economy by the first years of the 21st Century. //
My Agenda for American Renewal starts with these facts:
manufacturing
Right now, in our factories, 1 of every 6 jobs is tied to trade.
On our farms, produce from 1 in every 3 acres we harvest will be
sold abroad. In the century ahead -- in your lifetimes -- the
percentage of your paycheck that comes from what America sells
abroad is only going to grow. The bottom line in our new world
economy is this: Exports equal jobs. //
I have faith that if we open foreign markets, our workers
will satisfy the demand for our products. So my agenda starts
with a global trade strategy -- a network of new free trade
arrangements from Chile to Czechoslovakia, from the Pacific
nations to Poland. Give OR America the opportunity, and I
believe they can respond to the needs of any customer --
anywhere.
But developed economies need developing minds. That's why
my Agenda for American Renewal takes aim at the critical
challenge -- preparing our children for the new century ahead.
That means a revolution in American education.
Competition works in our economy -- it's time to bring some
competition to the classroom. I have a GI Bill for Kids -- which
would give thousand dollar scholarships to every parent, so that
their
they can choose where there kid should go to school. Whether
it's the public school across town or the private or religious
4
school across the street, I believe parents, not the government,
should decide which school is best for their kids.
//
Now, the third key component of my agenda for American
renewal: Helping America's businesses sharpen their competitive
edge. Small businesses create 2/3 of all new American jobs --
and they're the first to turn change to advantage in a fast-
moving economy. When you finish this program, a small business
is where you'll most likely end up with a job.
We must ease the burden on small business. Small businesses
need relief -- from tight credit / over-regulation / taxation /
and litigation.
Let me expand on this last point. America has become the
land of the lawsuit -- each year we spend $200 billion on direct
costs to lawyers. / I think that's crazy, and I have a plan to
put an end to crazy lawsuits. America won't work until we start
suing each other less -- and start caring for one another more.
//
Fourth, my Agenda for American Renewal means promoting
economic security for working Americans. That means health care
reform -- to make health insurance affordable to all Americans,
and make sure you're never locked into a job you want to leave
because you're worried you may lose your health care coverage.
It means a retirement or pension plan that you can take with you
throughout your career.
Fifth, our Agenda for American Renewal must mean an America
that leaves no one behind. That means programs that break the
5
cycle of dependency. That help public housing tenants become
homeowners
that help people on welfare find work
that
help people without hope take heart. We don't owe every American
a living -- but we do owe every American an opportunity. //
And finally, my agenda won't be complete until we bring
change to one of the most hide-bound institutions in America:
The government. I call my idea "right-sizing" government. But
whatever we call it, I know you'll agree: Government is too big,
and it spends too much. //
My opponent wants to make big government even bigger. To be
precise, he's already on record for at least $220 billion dollars
in new spending -- and $150 billion in new taxes.
Now my opponent likes to tell you he'll only raise taxes on
the rich. But I'll tell you this: Bill Clinton's going to end
up taxing all working Americans for the same reason outlaw Willie
Sutton robbed banks: "Because that's where the money is." //
Well, I don't think people are undertaxed. I think
government spends too much. That's why my agenda includes a new
idea to drive down the deficit' -- by giving the American taxpayer
power to earmark a full 10 percent of his federal tax dollars for
one purpose, and one purpose only: to pay down the national
debt. It is time to rightsize our government.
My new plan is comprehensive -- filled with specific answers
to questions Americans are asking around their dining room tables
these days. One of those questions is --- how will I stay ahead
of the changes in the world economy:
6
According to some studies, just 2 percent of you will work
the same job from now until retirement. The average worker can
expect to change jobs 10 times during the course of his career.
You need real-world security -- skills you can put to work now -
- and ten years from now. //
But just as you can't drive a nail without a hammer, you
can't build a dream without a job. You're here at Job Corps
because you know that what it takes more and better skills to earn
good jobs -- and you decided you were going to do something about
it. //
Well, America has work to do -- and we can't let your drive
go to waste. // Maybe fifty years ago, a strong back might have
been enough to get a good job. In our changing economy, it's not
enough any more. What you earned yesterday with sweat -- you've
got to earn tomorrow with skills.
That's why last month, I announced new initiatives to focus
federal job training on the kind of real-world skills Americans
like you -- and Americans of all ages need in this new world
economy.
To help young people find that first job -- a program we
call the Youth Training Corps, modeled after Job Corps programs
like this one, get inner-city kids off the mean streets, and
give them a second chance to build the skills they need to
succeed. For older workers who've lost their job -- or worry
that next pay envelope may bring a pink slip, we've developed a
new idea called Skill Grants. We want to give workers vouchers
7
worth $3000 dollars -- to be used towards the training program of
their choice.
And let me say: choice is critical. You know what I mean.
You need I don't see job training as an excuse to shoehorn
you into whatever program has an open slot, or the next box on
some bureaucrat's checklist. I want to give you the power to go
where you want to get training -- in the kind of career that you
choose. //
These are some of the ideas I'm talking about to Renew
America. Many are underway, others are just beginning.
You see, I'm committed in this campaign -- to providing
serious answers -- to the questions Americans are asking about
our future. I have diagnosed the problem, and offered serious
solutions -- not all of which are popular. And I'm asking for a
mandate -- to put my solutions into action, and get this country
moving.
For now at least, my opponent has chosen a different
strategy. Rather than talk about what he wants to for America,
he spends his time belittling my ideas, and playing on fears.
One example. I want to talk about limiting the growth of
government spending -- which my opponent says he agrees with.
But instead of offering any ideas of his own, he simply says --
watch out seniors, watch our Veterans.
Governor Clinton is running a Freddie Kreuger candidacy,
"he's more interested in playing on people's fears, than in
dealing with this country's problems.
8
I know times are tough, and that Americans have real
concerns. But I reject a candidate who'll say anything to get
elected. I'm going to talk about real ideas -- ideas that are
right for America.
You see, we stand on the cusp of a new age in our nation.
We have changed the world, and our children sleep safer because
of our actions. Now we can devote the same energy, the same
determination we used to win the Cold War -- to building a safer
and more secure America here at home.
With the agenda I've outlined today, I believe we can Renew
America, and build a better and brighter future.
Thank you all for this warm welcome -- and may God bless
this great nation, the United States of America.
# # #
SEP-10-1992 17:11 FROM KANSAS CITY MO STAFF OFC TO
12024566218
P.01
OFFICE OF
PRESIDENTIAL ADVANCE
COVER PAGE
TO:
Ed Watters
FROM:
John Horse /KC 3 advance
TOTAL NUMBER OF PAGES:
(including cover page)
DATE:
9-10-92
5:05
TIME:
MESSAGE:
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR PROBLEMS WITH THE TRANSMISSION PLEASE CALL.
TELEPHONE NUMBER:
SEP-10-1992 17:11 FROM KANSAS CITY MO STAFF OFC TO
12024566218
P.02
THE WHITE HOUSE
Office of the Press Secretary
For Immediate Release
July 16, 1992
The President today recognized Derrick Thomas, of Independence,
Missouri, as the 832nd Daily Point of Light for the Nation. Mr.
Thomas, an All-Pro outside linebacker for the Kansas city Chiefs,
devotes his time to providing exceptional care for children and
youth, helping them develop good character and values.
A native of South Miami's Perrine neighborhood, Derrick Thomas
was convicted of burglary at age 14 and sent to the Dade County
Marine Institute. There he learned the value of self-discipline,
positive thinking, and teamwork.
In 1990, having established a successful career in professional
football and eager to create opportunities for at-risk children
Foundation. on the Saturday before each Chiefs home game, and
to build their self-esteem, Mr. Thomas founded the Third and Long
one Saturday each month during the off-season, the Derrick Thomas
Reading Club gathers children ages 9 to 13 to read and discuss
difficulties they may be having in school. Mr. Thomas himself
reads stories and newspaper articles with 58 children from low-
income neighborhoods, then facilitates smaller group discussions.
He prefers to work directly with those children who have had the
greatest disciplinary problems and reading difficulties.
Through the Third and Long Foundation, Derrick Thomas has
Kevin Ross and Chris Martin. He has developed close
mobilized other volunteers for service, including fellow Chiefs
relationships with many of the youth, encouraging their social
and academic development. The Reading Club enables Mr. Thomas
and other players to serve as role models and motivators while
encouraging children to improve in fundamental skills.
The President salutes Derrick Thomas for exemplifying his belief
that, "From now on in America, any definition of a successful
life must include serving others.'
#
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Miah Homstad or Karen Barnes
(202) 456-6266
Derrick Thomas
4803 Maybrook Drive
Representatives: Derrick Thomas
Independence, Missouri 64055
Donna Woolard, Teacher
(708) 205-0997
Stephen Williams, Student
SEP-10-1992 17:12 FROM KANSAS CITY MO STAFF OFC
TO
12024566218
P.03
Let's touch the future
EXCELSIOR SPRINGS HIGH SCHOOL 612 LYNN Ro.
EXCELSIOR SPRINGS
EXCELSIOR SPRINGS, MISSOURI 64024
SCHOOL DISTRICT
To the attention of John Horn
Date: Sept. 9, 1992
From: The Excelsior Springs School District
Re:
Alternative School-A cooperative agreement between
the Excelsior Springs School District and the
Excelsior Springs Job Corp.
The Excelsior Springs School District and the Excelsior
Springs Job Corp have taken seriously the concerns of our
community, the nation, and President Bush. Keeping in mind
the goals of America 2000 "Making this land all that it
should be" we have during this school year cooperatively
established an Alternative School which we hope will address
area and national concerns and needs in regard to At-Risk
Students and High School Drop Outs. This unique partnership
within the state is an example of a community working
together in cooperative effort, utilizing community and
government resources to meet the needs of our country's
future-its children.
MR. PAUL ALLEN
MR. DENNIS KRAMER
PRINCIPAL
ASST. PRINCIPAL
816/637-2107
816/328-6560
HEY! WHO GAVE HIM
A PLATFORM?
PARTY
WRONGS
RIGHTS
POOPER!
HISS!
BIGOT!
BOO!
All
HILLARYS
FEMINISTS
CHROEDERS
KIDS'
ABORTION
WOMENS
GAY
RIGHTS
RIGHTS
WOODYS
RIGHTS
PRIVACY
RIGHTS
BENEONER
REPUBLIC
Presdoc
1 3 7,8,11 13,14,15
David Walters
3,4,5,
Detroit
4,5,6
Steve
9
Dan
10
SEP 09 '92 12:49PM
P.1
U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS
DIVISION OF LABOR FORCE STATISTICS
Postal Square Building
Room 4675
2 Massachusetts Avenue, N.E.
Washington, D.C. 20212
Fax Number: 202-606-6426
FACSIMILE COVER SHEET
DATE: September 9, 1992
TIME:
12:50
NAME:
Edwalters
ORGANIZATION: White House speechwriting
RECEIVING FAX # 202-456-77 TO 6218
RECEIVING PHONE # 202-456-7750
FROM:
Larry Leith
SENDER'S TELEPHONE #
207-606-6378 X286
NUMBER OF PAGES (INCLUDING COVER SHEET)
10
COMMENTS OR INSTRUCTIONS:
SENDER. *IF YOU DID NOT RECEIVE A COMPLETE TRANSMITTAL PLEASE NOTIFY THE
SEP
09
'92
12:49PM
P.2
VOL
The Importance of Lifetime Jobs in the U.S. Economy
plai
Ge
in 1
By ROBERT E. HALL*
1
and
Though the U.S. labor market is justly
be repeated here. If most workers in the
ber
notorious for high turnover and consequent
United States were holding relatively brief
tio:
high unemployment, it also provides stable,
jobs, then theories of long-term employment
job
arrangements would be off the point. The
WOI
near-lifetime employment to an important
findings reported here of the considerable
ara
fraction of the labor force. This paper in-
importance of lifetime work do not clinch
Sur
vestigates patterns of job duration by age,
race, and sex, with the following major con-
the case in favor of any particular theory of
but
clusions:
long-term contracts. Even in markets for
of
1) The typical worker today is holding a
completely homogeneous products, where
san
simple ideas of competitive spot markets
ter
job which has lasted or will last about eight
years. Over a quarter of all workers are hold-
work perfectly, it is conceivable that the typi-
ha
St
ing jobs which will last twenty years or more.
cal buyer deals with the same seller year
after year. But the finding of extensive long-
of
Sixty percent hold jobs which will last five
years or more.
term employment in the U.S. labor market
CC
2) The jobs held by middle-aged workers
does add to the interest in understanding
cel:
long-term employment arrangements.
me
with more than ten years of tenure are ex-
All of the results in this paper are derived
cor
tremely stable. Over the span of a decade,
from published tabulations of job tenure,
hel
only 20 to 30 percent come to an end.
3) Among workers aged 30 and above,
that is, the length of time that workers have
res
about 40 percent are currently working in
been employed to date in their jobs. Most of
cor
sh
jobs which eventually will last twenty years
the results rest on projections of how much
or more. Three-quarters are in jobs which
longer workers will remain on their current
ar.
will last five years or more.
jobs. These projections are most important
pa
4) The duration of employment among
for workers in midcareer, where many have
blacks is just as long as among whites. Even
just started jobs which will ultimately last
though the jobs held by blacks are worse in
twenty or thirty years. The techniques used
almost every other dimension, they are no
in this research were inspired by the related
more unstable than those held by whites.
literature on the duration of unemployment,
P
5) Women's jobs are substantially short-
for example, the work of Hyman Kaitz. My
in
concentration on the distribution of job
re
er than men's, on the average. Only about
duration across workers was suggested by
Wi
one-quarter of all women over the age of 30
the work of Kim Clark and Lawrence
de
are employed in jobs which will last over
twenty years, whereas over half the men over
Summers on the distribution of the dura-
sa
30 are holding these near-lifetime jobs.
tion of unemployment across unemployed
tis
These findings are highly relevant in the
workers. This paper will not make any ex-
ne
plicit use of a very different distribution, that
d.
debate over the existence and nature of
long-term employment contracts. I have
of the duration across jobs. It is true, but not
a
relevant for the points to be made here, that
is
elaborated this point elsewhere (1980) and
have given extensive citations, which will not
the typical job is extremely brief, lasting only
a matter of months (see R. A. Jenness). Most
workers hold very stable jobs, even though
"Hoover Institution, and department of economics,
Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Re-
stable jobs are a small fraction of the flow of
search. This research was supported by the National
jobs filled each month. The relationship be-
Science Foundation through a grant to the National
tween the distribution of the lengths of jobs,
Burcau of Economic Research. and is part of the NBER's
sampled randomly from the universe of newly
ty)
research program on economic fluctuations. I am grate-
started jobs, and the distribution obtained by
for
ful to Jane Mather for exceptionally capable assistance.
All opinions expressed are my own.
sampling randomly among workers, is ex-
use
716
SEP 09 '92 12:50PM
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VOL. 72 NO. 4
HALL: LIFETIMEJOBS
717
plained in detail by Stephen Salant, and by
defined as the number of years since the
George Akerlof and Brian Main. Everything
workers' current job began.
in this paper is based on sampling workers.
The data on tenure do not immediately
The stability of jobs among middle-aged
suggest that lengthy employment is an im-
and older workers has been noted by a num-
portant feature of the American labor market.
ber of earlier authors, though the computa-
The median job tenure among workers in
tion in this paper of additional time on the
general was only 3.6 years in 1978; 40 per-
job is new, as far as I know. My own earlier
cent had tenure of less than two years and
work (1972) presented low estimates of sep-
only 9.5 percent had been on the same job
aration rates from the National Longitudinal
for twenty years or more. The distribution of
Survey of Work Experience for older men,
all workers among the categories (years) of
but without any comment on the significance
tenure was
of the low rates. Martin Neil Baily cited the
same source in defense of theories of long-
Category
Percent
term employment contracts. Kazuo Koike
0-0.5
19.0
has compared data on tenure for the United
0.5-1.0
9.2
States and Japan, and concluded that tenure
1-2
11.7
2-3
7.7
of fifteen years or longer is actually more
3-5
12.5
common in the United States, in spite of the
5-10
16.7
celebrated nenko system of lifetime employ-
10-15
8.7
ment in Japan. Akerlof and Main present
15-20
5.0
20-25
3.7
computations of the mean length of jobs
25-30
2.8
held by workers in the United States, with
30-35
1.7
results that are fully compatible with the
35+
1.3
complete distributions reported here. Main
shows that jobs lasting twenty years or more
The median was 3.6 years.
are slightly more prevalent in Britain com-
However, the labor force contains a large
pared to the United States.
proportion of young workers who could not
possibly have long tenure even if lifetime
I. Data on Job Tenure
jobs were the general rule. A better way to
diagnose long-term employment from data
On six different occasions in the postwar
on tenure is among older workers. The per-
period, the Current Population Survey has
centages of workers who have had the same
inquired about the starting date of the cur-
jobs for twenty or more years are
rent job of each of the roughly 100,000
workers included in the survey. A job is
Age
Percent
defined as continuous employment with the
35-39
1
same employer, possibly in different occupa-
40-44
7
tions. Interruptions in jobs for vacation, ill-
45-49
17
ness, strikes, and layoffs of less than thirty
50-54
25
55-59
30
days are not counted. For the self-employed
60-64
33
and household service workers with multiple
65+
35
employers, the entire spell in the same line of
work is counted as a single job.² Tenure is
From these data, one might reasonably
'See Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Labor
infer that lifetime employment is the excep-
Statistics 1963, 1967. 1969, 1975, and 1979.
tion in the U.S. labor market. Only about
2Only 1.5 percent of workers are in household service,
one-third of older workers are currently in
and, in any case, their distribution by tenure is very
jobs which have lasted a large fraction of
similar to the distribution for workers in general. The
their careers. But this inference is obscured
self-employed form 8.4 percent of all workers and have
typically longer tenure (especially farmers). However,
by the failure to count large numbers of
for most of the self-employed. the definition of a job
middle-aged workers who are now working
used in the survey is probably quite reasonable.
in jobs which ultimately will last twenty or
SEP 09 '92 12:51PM
718
THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
SEPTEMBER 1982
twenty-five years, but which have lasted less
number of workers in an age-tenure category
than twenty years to date. Among the 45 to
in one survey with the number in a later
49-year-olds, for example, in addition to the
survey in correspondingly higher age and
17 percent who are working in jobs which
tenure categories. Job retention rates com-
have lasted at least twenty years so far,
puted in this way appear in Table 1 for the
another 44 percent are in jobs which have
ten-year period 1968-78. Alternatively, what
lasted five to twenty years, and, as I will
I will call "contemporaneous" job retention
demonstrate, there is a large probability that
rates can be computed by comparing two
these jobs will last a good many more years.
categories in the same survey. In this ap-
Over 40 percent of all 45 to 49-year-olds are
proach, an adjustment for differences in the
in near-lifetime jobs. This inference is not
population by age must be used. The effect
inconsistent with the small fraction-again
of the adjustment is to compare the fraction
about one-third-of workers near retirement
of the population in an age group who have
age who have twenty or more years of tenure.
a specified amount of tenure with the frac-
Ages of retirement vary widely; many of the
tion of the population in an older group with
workers in this age group are now holding
correspondingly higher tenure. The two
new jobs after retiring from near-lifetime
methods of calculating job retention rates
jobs in the recent past. There is no single age
will give the same results if the distribution
at which the fraction of workers with long
of tenure within age groups remains stable
tenure reveals the true importance of long-
over time. Both are just estimates of future
term jobs.
retention rates, and it is not clear as a theo-
retical matter which is better. At the practi-
П. Inferring the Prospective Length of a Job
cal level, the contemporaneous retention rates
are the only ones that can be calculated for
In order to get a clearer picture of the
less than five-year spans because the survey
importance of long jobs, it is necessary to
has been taken only at five-year intervals in
project the likely additional time a worker
the past decade. Examples of the differences
will spend in his current job. Then what I
between the two rates appear in Table 1 for
will call "eventual tenure" can be computed
selected age-tenure groups. The only im-
as the sum of actual reported tenure and the
portant discrepancy occurs among 40 to 44-
projected additional time on the job. The key
year-olds with fifteen to twenty years of
element in the projection is the probability
tenure. An unusually large fraction of this
that a worker with a given age and tenure
age group in 1968 took jobs in the immediate
will retain his current job for one, ten, twenty
postwar period, 1948-53. As a result, the
years, and so on. In the work presented here,
numerator in the contemporaneous retention
the retention probabilities are measured from
rate, which contains the same group ten years
the number of workers in one age-tenure
later, is biased upward as an estimate of the
category who move on to higher age-tenure
likely fraction of 50 to 54-year-olds with
categories. If the fraction is large, it means
twenty-five to thirty years of tenure in 1988.
that there is considerable prospective addi-
Biases of this kind are largely offsetting be-
tional time on the job for a worker in the
cause the same high number appears in the
first category. This kind of comparison can
denominator of other estimates of retention
be made for widely separated categories; for
rates. The fact that the disturbance in job-
example, to compute the probability that a
taking patterns caused by World War II
worker aged 25 to 29 who has been on the
shows up clearly in the 1978 data on job
job for five years will remain on the job for
tenure is an illustration in itself of the impor-
ten more years, I use the number of workers
tance of long-term jobs.
aged 35 to 39 with fifteen years of tenure
The computation of retention rates in Ta-
divided by the number of workers aged 25 to
ble 1 takes account of all the major sources
29 with five years of tenure.
of departure from jobs-movements to other
The computation of job retention rates
jobs and departures from the labor force
can be done historically by comparing the
through permanent retirement or temporary
SEP 09 92 12:52PM
P.5
VOL. 72 NO. 4
HALL: LIFETIMEJOBS
719
TABLE 1-TEN-YEAR Job RETENTION RATES
Percent of
Age Group
Historical
Percent of Age
in this
Retention
Contemporaneous
Tenure
Group in this
Tenure
Tenure
Rate
Retention Rate
Age in
in 1968
Category
Age in
in 1978
Category
1968-78
1978
1968
(years)
1968
1978
1978
(years)
1978
(percent)
(percent)
20-24
0-5
50.76
58.83
30-34
10-15
7.36
14.5
12.5
30-34
0-5
39.24
45.27
40-44
10-15
10.83
27.6
23.9
5-10
14.25
16.61
15-20
7.61
53.4
45.8
40-44
5-10
12.30
15.36
50-54
15-20
7.10
57.7
46.2
15-20
9.24
7.61
25-30
6.02
65.2
79.1
20-25
4.93
4.61
30-35
3.58
72.6
77.7
50-54
5-10
11.12
12.58
60-64
15-20
4.23
38.0
33.6
20-25
7.25
6.42
30-35
3.40
46.9
53.0
55-59
20-25
6.54
5.45
65-69
30-35
1.09
16.7
20.0
Source: Computed from Bureau of Labor Statistics (1969, 1979).
withdrawal. This is achieved by taking the
workers in their forties. About half of those
percent of the population in each age-tenure
aged 40 to 44 who have been on their current
category, rather than the percent of workers
jobs for five to ten years so far will retain
S
(which is what is reported in the tabulations
their jobs ten years from now, And for those
of the survey). Data on the civilian nonin-
in their forties who have spent most of their
stitutional population were used to restate
working lives in their current jobs, the great
the data in this form; details on the compu-
majority (65-79 percent) will remain in those
S
tations and the resulting distribution are
jobs for the next ten years as well. Job reten-
given in an appendix which is available from
tion rates are lower among younger workers,
the author. Two other less important sources
who are still in the process of finding good
of departure from jobs are not counted in
lifetime matches, and for older workers, who
Table 1: death and emigration. An examina-
have substantial probabilities of retirement
$
tion of data on deaths and on population
in the next ten years.
changes within cohorts showed that neither
With a complete set of job retention rates,
flow has any perceptible effect on the calcu-
it is possible to calculate the distribution of
lation of retention rates. In the modern U.S.
additional years of work for workers in each
$
economy, almost nobody dies or emigrates
observed age-tenure category. The results for
while holding a job. Finally, the restriction to
40 to 44-year-olds with eventual tenure of
civilian employment and population means
twenty-plus years are
that military service is not included-the
reported retention rates are correct estimates
Category
Percent
for nonmilitary jobs.
0-0.5
4.6
0.5-1
7.8
1-2
11.3
III. Computed Job Retention Rates and the
2-3
15.7
Distribution of Eventual Tenure
3-5
20.4
for the U.S. Labor Force
5-10
35.5
10-15
59.0
15-20
98.0
Table I shows that both measures of job
20+
100.0
retention rates agree that all but the young-
est workers face a substantial probability of
For all tenure groups, the percent was 39.5.
remaining on their current jobs for at least
Although the entire distribution can be
another ten years. Eventual tenure is far
inferred, all that is shown here is the fraction
greater than tenure to date, especially for
of workers whose additional years of work
SEP 09 '92 12:52PM
P.6
720
THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
SEPTEMBER 1982
will be enough to give them eventual tenure
An equally important minority are at work
of at least twenty years on the current job.
in what will turn out to be very brief jobs--
As in every group in the labor force, those
about 23 percent will have eventual tenure of
aged 40 to 44 who have just taken new jobs
less than two years. A clear majority of
have only a small likelihood of remaining in
workers-58 percent-are currently holding
those jobs for the next twenty years. But
reasonably long jobs, those which will last
those who have been on their current jobs
five years or more.
for five to ten years have a 35 percent chance
of keeping their current jobs for the ten to
IV. The Process of Moving into
fifteen additional years necessary to give
Long-Term Work
them an eventual tenure of twenty years or
more. Those who have already lasted ten to
The data on job tenure reveal a good deal
fifteen years have a 59 percent chance of
about the probability process through which
lasting the additional five to ten years, and
most workers eventually settle into near-life-
those with fifteen to twenty years on their
time jobs. The typical pattern is to hold a
current jobs are 98 percent likely to reach
number of very brief jobs in the first few
twenty years of eventual tenure. In the entire
years after leaving school. Eventually one job
age group, just under 40 percent will have
turns out to be a good match and lasts
eventual tenure on their current jobs of
several years. The probability that any given
twenty years or more. This should be com-
new job will become a lifetime job is ex-
pared to the much smaller figure-7.5 per-
tremely low for young workers and never
cent-who have already reached twenty years
rises above 6 percent in any age group. But
of tenure. Very long-term jobs are quantita-
after a job has lasted five years, the probabil-
tively important in this age group, but that
ity that it will eventually last twenty years or
fact is not apparent directly in the distribu-
more in all rises to close to one-half among
tion of tenure. Computations of eventual
workers in their early thirties. As a general
tenure from job retention rates are needed to
matter, the data suggest that most job
appraise the incidence of very long jobs.
changes occur in the first few years after a
The following is the distribution of even-
job begins, because the worker or the em-
tual tenure across all age and tenure cate-
ployer or both perceive that the worker and
gories for all U.S. workers in 1978:
the job are poorly matched. Once this period
of job shopping reaches a successful conclu-
Years
Percent
sion, workers have very low probabilities of
0-0.5
9.8
losing or leaving jobs. Again, it is important
0.5-1
6.7
to emphasize that good matches are not nec-
1-2
7.0
essarily good jobs in any absolute sense-a
2-3
5.0
3-5
13.5
worker who is placed above his competence
5-10
14.8
will not last any longer than will a worker
10-15
10.4
who realizes he would be happier in another
15-20
4.7
job for which he is qualified.
20-25
4.7
25-30
6.2
At no age is the probability very high of a
30-35
10.0
given new job becoming a lifetime job (the
35+
7.0
percent shown is the probability that a job
will last twenty-plus years):
The median was 7.7 years; the percent with
twenty-plus years was 28.0.
Age
Percent
The typical worker is currently on a job
16-17
0.4
18-19
0.3
which will last about eight years in all, count-
20-24
2.2
ing the years it has already lasted. An im-
25-29
4.8
portant minority-about 28 percent-are
30-34
5.3
currently employed in near-lifetime jobs last-
35-39
5.7
ing twenty years or more, and 17 percent are
40-44
4.6
45-49
1.8
in jobs which will last thirty years or more.
50-54
1.0
SEP 09 '92 12:53PM
VOL. 72 NO. 4
HALL: LIFETIMEJOBS
721
82
TABLE 2-ASPECTS OF THE PROCESS OF MOVING INTO LONG-TERM JOBS, ALL WORKERS. 1978
Percent of All
Percent of those
of
Percent
Workers 5 Years
Who Reach $ Years
Working
Probability
Older Who Have
of Tenure Who Go
in New
of Retaining
Reached Tenure
on to Reach Tenure
Jobs
Job to 5 Years
of 5+ Years
of 20+ Years
Age
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
16-17
59.5
1.7
5.5
26.2
18-19
52.5
1.2
5.5
26.2
20-24
34.1
5.9
19.9
36.6
25-29
22.3
10.8
35.3
44.9
30-34
17.1
13.6
46.3
39.3
al
35-39
13.6
16.0
53.7
35.5
40-44
11.3
18.1
61.7
25.2
&
45-49
8.6
20.0
67.1
8.7
50-54
7.1
24.4
71.4
4.3
a
55-59
6.2
20.0
73.7
3
60-64
6.2
9.8
63.5
-
b
65-69
8.2
7.1
72.9
ts
Note: Column (1) is the reported fraction of workers in the age group who have zero to six months of tenure. Column
(2) is the contemporaneous five-year job retention rate from 0-6 months tenure to 5-10 years tenure. Column (3) is
the reported fraction of workers in the age group with five or more years of tenure. Column (4) is the fifteen-year
contemporaneous job retention rate from five to ten years tenure to twenty to twenty-five years tenure. Source for all
it
data is Bureau of Labor Statistics (1979).
1-
or
al
The very low chance of success in any given
ployed worker will reach the milestone of
new job means that the typical worker has to
five years on the job. The chances are insig-
take a number of different jobs in order to
nificant among teenagers, rise to a peak of
a
have a good chance of finding a lifetime
about one in four among workers in their
-
match. The small probability in each new job
early fifties, and then fall back to low levels
d
d
presumably reflects the paucity of informa-
for workers near retirement age. The third
tion available to workers about prospective
column shows the fraction of all workers in
à
of
jobs before they try them out, and the similar
each age group who have reached the five-
nt
paucity of information available to em-
year point on their current jobs. The fraction
ployers about the talents of prospective
rises smoothly from close to zero for teen-
δ
workers before they can be observed at work.
agers to about three-quarters for workers in
-a
Even workers in their thirties and forties,
their early sixties. At age 40, a majority of
ce
who generally have substantial amounts of
workers have passed the five-year milestone,
experience, face low chances of landing life-
generally after a number of trials. For exam-
time jobs on any given try.
ple, if the chances are about 10 percent that
Still, most workers do wind up in lifetime
any given job will last at least five years, and
a
work, as earlier parts of this paper have
half of all workers have made it, then the
ne
shown. Table 2 illustrates how multiple tries
typical worker has taken roughly five tries.
eventually succeed. It uses the point of five
Column (4) gives the prospects for a total
years of tenure as an intermediate milestone
duration of twenty years or more at the
in describing the process. Column (1) gives
five-year point. The probability reaches a
the fraction of workers who are in new jobs,
peak of nearly half among workers in their
that is, jobs which began in the six months
early thirties and then declines among older
before the survey. The fraction declines
workers, who will probably retire within the
smoothly from a majority of teenagers to
next fifteen years.
about 6 percent of workers aged 55 to 64; it
The result of this process of moving into
rises slightly around retirement age. Column
long-term jobs is the following fraction of
(2) gives the probability that a newly em-
workers with eventual tenure of at least
SEP 09 '92 12:54PM
P.8
722
THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
SEPTEMBER 1982
twenty years on the job they currently hold:
TABLE 3-New JoBs
Cumulative
Age
Percent
New Jobs
Number of
16-17
0.0
Age
New Jobs
over the
Jobs Held
18-19
0,6
Group
per Year
Age Interval
to this Age
20-24
7.4
25-29
18.6
16-17
.394
0.8
0.8
30-34
27.7
18-19
.534
1.1
1.9
35-39
35.5
20-24
.425
2.1
4.0
a
40-44
39.5
25-29
.309
1.5
5.5
45-49
41.0
30-34
.240
1.2
6.7
fi
50-54
41.1
35-39
.192
1.0
7.7
55-59
b
40.1
40-44
.167
0.8
8.5
60-64
39.4
45-49
.126
0.6
9.1
65-69
40.9
50-54
.096
0.5
9.6
55-59
.076
0.4
10.0
60-64
.054
0.3
10.3
The fraction of workers rises until they are in
65-69
.032
0.2
10.4
their late thirties, as more and more find
70+
.010
is
0.1
10.5
good job matches. The fraction then remains
remarkably constant at about 40 percent un-
til retirement age. However, these aggregate
la
results conceal very important differences
CI
V. Long-Term Jobs among Blacks and Women
between men and women, a topic I will take
o
up shortly.
1'
Many accounts of the disadvantages fac-
Another way to express the movement of
ing blacks and women in the labor market
P
workers into stable jobs is by the number of
ci
emphasize their lack of success in finding
jobs held by the average worker. The flow of
4.
and holding permanent jobs. The techniques
new jobs is recorded directly in the tenure
a:
of this paper reach a surprising conclusion in
data in the form of the number of workers
the
testing this view-it is upheld strongly for
who have tenure of six months or less, though
W
women, but not at all for blacks. Lifetime
this measure understates the total flow of
St
employment is almost as common among
new jobs because some workers will have
blacks as among whites, and long-term em-
0
started two or more jobs in the six months
B
ployment is actually more common.³ (See
before the survey. The annual number of
Table 4.)
W
new jobs started by the average person in an
d.
age group is roughly twice the fraction of the
W
age group that is found in the zero to six-
t}
TABLE 4-COMPARISON OF BLACKS AND WHITES
month tenure category. The average number
W
of jobs held over a two-year span is twice the
Percent with Eventual Tenure of
annual rate, and the average over a five-year
1978
5+ Years
20+ Years
span is five times the annual rate. These
simple computations yield the results shown
All Blacks
63.4
26,4
al
in Table 3 for the number of jobs held by the
All Whites
57.3
28.7
el
average worker (again, brief jobs are under-
la
counted somewhat). Job shopping is most
th
intense in the early twenties-by age 24, the
Ir
The lower-paying jobs where blacks are
average worker has held four jobs out of the
concentrated are not systematically briefer
st
ten he or she will hold in an entire career.
than are the better jobs typically held by
SE
The next fifteen years, from age 25 through
whites. Discrimination against blacks does
la
39, will contribute another four jobs. Then,
rc
during the ages when near-lifetime work is
6
characteristic, less than three more jobs will
3 The same conclusion is reached by Steven Director
W
be held on the average.
and Samuel Doctors using personnel data from three
di
firms, and by Akerlof and Main.
pi
SEP 09 '92 12:55PM
VOL. 72 NO. 4
HALL: LIFETIMEJOBS
723
not take the form of exclusion from lifetime
TABLE -COMPARISON OF WOMEN AND MEN
jobs. Blacks are heavily represented in cer-
tain occupations with lower status and pay,
Percent with Eventual Tenure of
but these are not occupations with systemati-
1978
S+ Years
20+ Years
cally shorter jobs. Moreover, the vastly high-
Women
49.6
15.1
er incidence of unemployment among blacks
Men
63.8
37.3
-generally double the white rate-is not at
all the result of larger flows of workers out of
jobs. Further investigation of the surprising
finding of equal or higher job stability among
TABLE -CUMULATIVE JOBS FOR WOMEN AND MEN
blacks relative to whites cannot be done with
the published data and will require tabula-
Cumulative Number of Jobs Held
tion of the survey itself.
Age
Women
Men
On the other hand, the comparison be-
16-17
0.7
0.8
tween men and women confirms the general
18-19
1.8
1.9
impression that men typically hold longer
20-24
3.8
4.1
jobs than do women (see Table 5). Shorter
25-29
5.2
5.8
job duration among women is almost unre-
30-34
6.4
7.0
35-39
7.4
7.9
lated to their concentration in certain oc-
40-44
8.3
8.7
cupations. For example, more than one-third
45-49
9.0
9.3
of all employed women (34.9 percent) in
50-54
9.4
9.8
1978 were in clerical occupations, against 6.4
55-59
9.8
10.2
percent of men. Median tenure for women
60-64
10.0
10.5
65-69
10.2
10.7
clerical workers was 2.6 years compared to
70+
10.2
10.8
4,7 years for men. The gap between women
and men in the total labor force was close to
the same-median tenure was 2.6 years for
women and 4.5 years for men. Similarly large
VI. Further Results for Men
sex differences in tenure are found in the
other two major occupations employing
Because lifetime work is SO much more
women, professional-technical and service
common for men than for women, it seems
workers. It is not possible to compute the
worthwhile presenting some further detailed
distribution of eventual tenure by occupation
results for men alone. Actual and eventual
with the published data, but it seems likely
tenure are shown in Table 7. Once past the
that large differences in eventual tenure
would be found within occupations as well.
TABLE TENURE AND EVENTUAL TENURE FOR MEN
Although lifetime work is much less com-
mon among women than among men, the
Percent Who
typical number of jobs held over a lifetime is
had Worked
Percent with
about the same for both sexes-about ten or
20+ Years
Eventual Tenure
eleven jobs. Longer periods spent out of the
Age
to Date
of 20+ Years
labor force by women almost exactly offset
16-17
0.0
0.3
the shorter durations of the jobs they hold.
18-19
0.0
1.2
In other words, although the time between
20-24
0.0
11.5
starting one job and starting the next is the
25-29
0.0
27.0
same for women and men, women spend a
30-34
0.1
38.4
35-39
1.7
47.0
larger part of that time not working. This is
40-44
10.2
51.1
roughly true within age groups as well as
45-49
24.4
52.6
over the typical entire career (see Table 6).
50-54
33.4
51.0
Women slip behind men by about 0.6 jobs
55-59
39.3
49.5
during the period of most intense job shop-
60-65
41.4
48.0
65-69
38.9
50.2
ping and then recover a little after age 35.
SEP 09 '92 12:55PM
P.10
724
THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
SEPTEMBER 1982
TABLE 8-JOB RETENTION FOR MEN
Hall, Robert E., "Turnover in the Labor
Force," Brookings Papers on Economic Ac-
Percent of Jobs Retained for 10 Years,
tielty, 3: 1972, 709-56.
Starting from Tenure of:
I
"Employment Fluctuations and
Age
10-15 Years
20-25 Years
Wage Rigidity," Brookings Papers on Eco-
30-35
73
nomic Activity, 1: 1980, 91-124.
-
35-39
81
-
Jenness, R. A., "Taux de Roulement et Per-
40-44
64
79
manance de l'Emploi dans l'Industrie
45-49
66
61
Canadienne," l'Actualité Economique,
50-54
47
59
Avril-Juin 1974, 50, 152-76.
Kaitz, Hyman B., "Analyzing the Length of
Spells of Unemployment," Monthly Labor
Review, November 1970, 93, 11-20.
years of job shopping, half of all men are in
Koike, Kazuo, "Japan's Industrial Relations:
lifetime jobs.
Characteristics and Problems," Japanese
The jobs held by middle-aged men are
Economic Studies. Fall 1978, 7, 42-90.
remarkably stable-ten-year job retention
Main, Brian G. M., "The Length of a Job in
rates are shown in Table 8. Monthly separa-
Great Britain," unpublished paper, Uni-
tion rates, which are of the order of 3 percent
versity of Edinburgh, October 1980.
for workers in general, are about 0.25 per-
Salant, Stephen W., "Search Theory and
cent for middle-aged men with at least ten
Duration Data: A Theory of Sorts,"
years on the job.
Quarterly Journal of Economics, February
1977, 91, 39-57.
REFERENCES
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population
Reports: Labor Force, Series P-50, No. 36,
Akerlof, George A. and Main, Brian G. M., "An
November 5, 1951.
Experience-Weighted Measure of Em-
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Special Labor
ployment and Unemployment Durations,"
Force Report No. 36, Job Tenure of
American Economic Review, December
American Workers, January 1963, Wash-
1981, 71, 1003-11.
ington: USGPO, 1963.
Baily, Martin Neil, "Contract Theory and the
, Special Labor Force Report No. 77,
Moderation of Inflation by Recession,"
Job Tenure of Workers, January 1966,
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 3:
Washington: USGPO, 1967.
1976, 585-622.
, Special Labor Force Report No. 112,
Clark, Kim and Summers, Lawrence, "Labor
Job Tenure of Workers, January 1968,
Market Dynamics and Unemployment: A
Washington: USGPO, 1969.
Reconsideration," Brookings Papers on
, Special Labor Force Report No. 172,
Economic Activity, 1: 1979, 13-60.
Job Tenure of Workers, January 1973,
Director, Steven M. and Doctors, Samuel I., "Ra-
Washington: USGPO, 1975.
cial Differences in Blue-Collar Turnover
, Special Labor Force Report No.
Rates," Industrial Relations, October 1976,
235, Job Tenure Declines as Work Force
15, 338-42.
Changes, Washington: USGPO, 1979.
Dan-
THE WHITE HOUSE
Will you pls. check
WASHINGTON
for langaage?
September 10, 1992
Eg
MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT
FROM:
DAN MC GROARTY
SUBJECT:
PROPOSED REMARKS FOR JOB CORPS CENTER, EXCELSIOR
SPRINGS, MISSOURI
I. SUMMARY
On Friday September 11, at 12:40 p.m., you will address
approximately #### people at a job training site, the Job Corps
Center in Excelsior Springs, Missouri. In the audience will be
300 students from the program, ages 18-21.
II. DISCUSSION
Your remarks (approximately 13 minutes / cards) reprise your
economic address from Detroit, putting special emphasis on the
impact your agenda will have on young people entering the job
market.
8
It reminds me of what Senator Dirksen used to say about the
size of government, back in the 1960s. He used to say: "A
million here, a million there -- pretty soon, you're talking
about real money." //
Well, I've asked my economic advisors to index Senator
Dirksen's million dollars for inflation. In 1992 it's "x.x
million here, X.X million there " / And if you think that's
bad -- what about the federal budget: It's grown from (xx)
billion back when you were born to $1.5 trillion dollars a year
today. Nowadays, you can't get a bureaucrat up out of bed in the
morning unless he's got a few billion to push around.
That's what's wrong with government. People who never met a
payroll, never started a business -- people who don't know the
first thing about making a buck -- playing with billions of your
money.
9
It all reminds me of Bill Clinton's favorite crossword
puzzle: What's a three-letter word for "invest."
I'll give you a hint. It starts with T, and it ends
in
your pocket. //
Now that we've got capitalists in the Kremlin --
We need a new approach -- one that doesn't cripple the
economy and then offer workers a crutch. One that helps people
keep the jobs they've got and creates new ones. One that
helps America retool for the challenges of a new century -- for
the challenge of your lifetimes. //
//////////////CUTS
And when I see this idea drawing the scorn of liberal
economists and editorial writers -- then I know I'm really on to
something. I see this "10 percent solution" as the latest in a
long and honorable series of populist tools for sending a message
to government -- right up there with the recall, and the
referendum -- and yes, an old idea whose time has come: Term
limits. // I say: If it's good enough for Presidents, than it
ought to be good enough for Congress, too.
10
Let's strike a blow for the citizen-legislator -- and put an
end to career Congressmen. //
CUTS
Between now and November 3rd, you'll hear two versions of
how to do this: My opponent's answer is to look inward -- to
pretend we can protect what we already have. Our answer is to
look forward -- open new markets, prepare our people to compete,
strengthen our families, to save and invest -- SO that, when it
comes to the global competition -- America will win. //
ADD??
But job training is just part of the picture. If we want to
win the competition I've just spoken about we need a coherent
strategy -- one that sees that in today's world, foreign policy,
domestic policy and economic policy are three sides of a single
issue. /
THE WHITE HOUSE
Office of the Press Secretary
(Detroit, Michigan)
September 10, 2661
For Immediate Release
REMARKS BY THE PRESIDENT
TO THE DETROIT ECONOMIC CLUB
Cobo Hall
Detroit, Michigan
1:00 P.M. EDT
THE PRESIDENT: Thank you all very, very much. Good
morning to everyone. And, Governor Engler, I'm proud to be with Chick you,
sir, and thank you for that kind introduction. Greetings to
Fisher, your Chairman, and Jerry Warren, both of whom have been most
hospitable to me. I've been here several times before this most
distinguished American forum and I'm delighted to be back.
This morning I am here for a very serious speech,
serious business. And I'm releasing today an agenda for the American the
renewal. And I've come here today to introduce it to you and to
nation.
MY agenda diagnoses the economic problems our nation
faces, lays out the principles that should guide us in the years
ahead, and explains the integrated approach that I am pursuing to
meet the challenge.
Over the past weeks I have been discussing certain
elements of my economic agenda, and in the weeks ahead I will be
expanding on those and other ideas. The document that I'm releasing
today shows how the pieces all fit together.
But let's begin this morning by stepping back, taking
stock of where we are as a great nation in the broader sweep of
history.
The American people have just completed the greatest
mission in the lifetime of our country -- the triumph of democratic
capitalism over imperial communism.
Today, this year, for the first time since December of
1941, the United states is not engaged in a war, hot or cold.
Throughout history, at the close of prolonged and costly wars,
victors have confronted the problem of securing a new basis for peace
and prosperity. The American people recognize that we stand at such
a watershed.
We sense the epic changes at work in the world and in
the economy, the uneasiness that stirs the democracies who served as
our partners in the long struggle.
We feel the uneasiness in our own homes, our own
communities; and we see the difficulties of our neighbors and friends
who have felt change most directly.
And we know that while we face an era of great
opportunity, we face great risks as well -- if we fail to make the
right choices, if we fail to engage this new world wisely.
But America has always possessed unique powers, and
foremost among them is the power of regeneration -- to transform
MORE
uncertainty into opportunity. Only in America do we have the people,
the talents, the principles and ideals to fully embrace the world
that opens before us.
For America to be safe and strong, we must meet the
defining challenge of the 1990s: to win the economic
competition -- to win the peace. We must be a military superpower,
an economic superpower, and an export superpower.
My agenda for renewal asks that we look forward -- to
open new markets, prepare our people to work, strengthen our
families, save and invest so that we can win. our renewal depends on
economic growth -- but growth not for the few at the expense of the
many, not for the present at the expense of the future.
In our country we've always prized an entrepreneurial
capitalism that grows from the bottom up, not the top down; a
prosperity that begins on Main street and extends to Wall Street --
not the other way around.
That's the lesson I learned as a young man, packed up a
Studebaker and moved to Texas after another war, at the start of
another era. I saw jobs, prosperity -- an entire future -- built
with the hands of ordinary men and women with extraordinary dreams.
our nation has never been seduced by the mirage that my
opponent offers -- of a government that accumulates capital by taxing
it and borrowing it from the people -- and then redistributing it
according to some industrial policy. We know that the clumsy hand of
government is no match for the uplifting hand of the marketplace.
MY international economic and trade strategy will
guarantee our position as an export superpower, extending our global
economic reach in tandem with our security presence -- to stretch
beyond our borders so that we can create more jobs within our
borders.
At the same time, we need to foster at home the
capabilities that will keep us in the lead: radical changes in our
education system to prepare our children for a constantly changing
workplace; incentives for the entrepreneurs and new technologies to
sharpen our competitive edge; job training, health care reform, to
promote the economic security of our working men and women; and new
approaches for reaching out to those who have been left behind,
since in the century ahead we will need the talent and the energy of
every single American.
And finally, because our greatest strengths flow not
from government but from the personal initiative of free men and
women, my agenda aims to check the growth of government, and, in some
important ways, to reverse it. Together, the components of this new
agenda should renew America according to her most cherished
principles.
And this renewed America will be empowered toward a
grand goal: to nearly double the size of our economy, to $10
trillion, by the early years of the next century.
To place this agenda in a larger context, let me turn
briefly to five profound changes now at work in our economy. when
Americans gather around the kitchen table at night and talk about how
they'll meet a mortgage, or pay the doctor's bill, they're feeling
these changes in their daily lives. And before the changes have run
their course, they will have forever altered the way Americans buy
and sell, work and create.
The first great change in our economy is ironically
caused by our very success in ending the Cold war. In the short
run, deductions in defense spending have meant painful lay-offs in
MORE
- 3 -
many industries, and we are taking steps to ease this transition.
But in the medium and long run, deductions in defense spending will
free up priceless skills and technologies for peacetime growth.
second, most of our industries are transforming
themselves from old-style hierarchies into flatter organizations.
with fewer layers between customer and executive. The new
organizations emphasize a skill-based workforce, "lean production,"
and shorter production cycles. From castings to computers. this is a
revolution as dramatic as the one made earlier this century, when
Henry Ford led the country from craft-based production to mass
manufacturing.
While these changes are essential to maintaining our
competitive edge, they come with a cost; everyone in this room
knows that -- lay-offs, cutbacks among both white- and blue-collar
workers. These hard-working people need reassurance -- not only
about their economic security, but about preserving the sense of
self-worth that only work can provide. The third change: While the
1980s brought us the greatest peacetime expansion in our history, the
boom also led too many of us to take on too much debt.
We have been paying that down, that debt -- and lower interest rates
have helped us do it. The process is largely over, but consumers and
companies remain cautious.
The fourth change involves our financial system. We
entered the '80s with a 50-year-old banking system, designed for the
days when tellers wore green eye-shades, not for an era when billions
-- billions of investment dollars can cross borders at the speed of
light.
In the late '70s, record interest rates and inflation
rates rocked this anachronistic system. The less efficient
institutions could not survive, obligating the federal government to
protect the savings of millions of Americans.
Now, this process of paying debt down is nearing its
end. Our financial system will become more flexible and efficient.
But for now, lenders are cautious and, despite low interest rates,
small business still can find it hard to get the credit.
But the most far-reaching of these five changes is the
emergence of a global economy. No nation is an island today. one
out of every six manufacturing jobs is directly tied to exports. The
crops sown from one out of every three acres of farmland are sold
abroad.
Consider some implications of the global economy: when
growth slows abroad, as it has recently, our own growth slows as
well. And America will only grow in the next century if we can
compete globally -- in every part of the world. so we must seize
every opportunity to open new markets, particularly those with the
greatest potential for expansion.
Now, in drafting an agenda for America's future, we had
to assess our strengths as well as our weaknesses. Conveniently, the
other side has discovered many weaknesses and very few strengths.
And, of course, they might find temporary political gain in
portraying an America as past her prime, over the hill. But they
have no more right to argue, for partisan purposes, that our economy
is weaker than it is, than I have to understate our problems.
Our strengths are real. NOW, here are some facts. The
Misery Index -- the sum of inflation and unemployment -- is 10.8
percent, down from 19.6 Percent in 1980. Inflation stands at about
three percent. Interest rates are at a 20-year low.
The purchasing power of Americans gives us the highest standard of
living in the world. we enjoy the highest home ownership rate of all
major industrialized countries. And we send 68 percent of our
- 4 -
children on to higher education -- more than any other country -- and
well above Germany's 32 percent and Japan's 30 percent. And with 5
percent of the world's population, we produce 25 percent of the
world's total output -- and 37 percent of its high-tech products.
Now, I don't mean to suggest that all is well -- that we
don't need to lead and manage the changes that are transforming our
economy. But you can't chart the stars if you think the sky is
falling down. Over the past 12 years we have almost doubled the size
of our economy. It's as if we'd created two extra economies the size
of Germany's from scratch.
And how will we meet our goals? Before you hear the
specifics of this agenda, let me tell you a little bit about what I
believe -- because change, if it is to be a force for good, must be
guided by principles. And the principles that must guide change are
the principles that never change.
I believe we are a nation of special individuals, not
special interests. Individuals draw their enduring strength from
their families, from their neighbors and communities, not from the
government. so I believe we must never ask government to do what
families and neighbors and individuals can better do for
themselves -- and for one another.
I believe -- because I've seen it -- economic growth
comes from the small businesswoman who takes a risk on a new product,
from the computer hacker working in a garage, in a cluttered way;
from the merit scholar in South L.A., South Central L.A. with a
future as big as his dreams.
And I believe government owes it to them, and to you, to
keep tax rates low and make them even lower; to keep money sound; to
limit government spending and regulations; and to open the way for
greater competition, and freer trade.
But I do not believe. as some might, that government's
obligation ends there. As a conservative I believe that government
can help people offer them hope and opportunity -- by giving them
the means and the confidence to make the decisions that matter in
life.
My background has also prepared me for the task of
bringing our foreign policies and our domestic policies together; to
turn our strength as a world power to our advantage as an economic
power; to match the security we feel militarily with the economic
security that we must build at home. From now on, if America is to
lead the world, we need a leader who knows the territory.
MY agenda for American renewal calls for action on six
interconnected fronts. There's no single cause of our present
situation. There can be no single cure. The whole of our agenda
will be -- must be -- greater than the sum of its parts.
First, challenging the world. During the Cold War, we
built 8 global security structure with military alliances across the
Atlantic and the Pacific. And in the same way, the post-Cold war era
requires a strategic economic and trade policy -- global in scope,
and built on our foundation as an economic and export superpower.
we are uniquely positioned to achieve this goal. As the
largest fully integrated market in the world, we wield leverage with
other countries that want access to our market. As both a Pacific
and a European power, we are tied to the largest and most rapidly
growing economies across both oceans. And as the strongest nation in
our hemisphere, we are looked to for leadership by free economies
emerging from Chile all the way up to Mexico.
- 5 -
The same holds true for the newly born economies of
Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, where our values, our
products, even our language, carry a unique appeal. In Moscow today,
the lines at McDonald's are longer than the lines at Lenin's Tomb.
The key to America's growth, expansion, and innovation
has always been our openness to trade, investment, ideas, and people.
AS this openness is at last being reciprocated around the world, we
find ourselves again at a special advantage.
The next steps in my strategic trade policy are to
secure congressional approval of the North American Free Trade
Agreement and to complete the global trade negotiations, the GATT
round, creating high-wage American jobs and expanding the pool of
customers hungry for the fruits of American labor.
Let me emphasize: these agreements are steps, not ends
in themselves. And 50 I want to announce today that it is my goal to
develop a strategic network of free trade agreements -- with Latin
America: with Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia; and with countries
across the Pacific. And then, as these external barriers fall, I
believe we can help reduce internal barriers to competition as
well -- in North America, Western Europe, Japan, and elsewhere.
Greater competition will encourage entrepreneurial capitalism at the
expense of government power and entrenched interests, spurring
unprecedented economic growth.
Traveling around the country I've seen it happen already
-- particularly in some small businesses, as they strengthen
themselves for international competition. A couple of weeks ago, in
St. Louis, I visited Public Safety Equipment -- they're a company --
they make the light-bars that you've seen on police cars. The
president of Public safety told me that a few years ago, they
recognized they could no longer just sell their products in 50
states, leave it at that. And so they took on the world. And now 35
percent of what they make is sold in 48 countries, creating good jobs
right here in the United States of America.
Public Safety, and the hundreds of thousands of
companies like it, offer a glimpse into the future I see for all
American business. But a business is only as efficient. as resilient
as innovative, as the people who keep its books and build its
products and devise its strategy. Materials, machines, methods --
they'll come and go, but the American worker will remain the key to
our economic security.
That brings me, then, to the second part of our agenda:
preparing our children.
The workplace of the 21st century will be constantly
changing. I've heard that from many businesspeople sitting right
here at the tables in this hall. We must prepare the American people
for a lifetime of learning, to keep a step ahead of that process of
change. Now, developed nations need developing minds. The burden
will fall on our educational system. As in the past, education
should be the ladder that children can climb to better themselves.
our current school system is not up to the task.
Designed for the 19th century, it will collapse under the weight of
the 21st. And our educational establishment is caught in the same
time warp, where standing still means falling behind.
Money alone is not the answer -- the United states
already spends more per pupil than any other country but Switzerland.
The answer is a radical overhaul of the system itself. If we want to
change our country, we've got to change our schools.
The catalyst for change -- the one reform that drives
all others -- is school choice, giving children scholarships so that
- 6 -
all parents have the freedom to choose which schools will best serve
their children. Competition is the principle that must underlie
education reform, to break the establishment's monopoly on the
system. And competition will not work unless parents are allowed to
choose their children's schools -- whether it's the public school
across town or the parochial school across the street. (Applause.)
Consider just one statistic: in Chicago, 46 percent of
public school teachers send their children to private schools.
Clearly they know something about monopoly education that my opponent
doesn't. Our different approaches to education reform reveal the
grand canyon that divides me and my opponent. You see the same
contrast in child care, or health care, and a host of other issues.
My opponent prefers uniformity to variety and choice, relying on
these government bureaucracies to offer "one-size-fits-all service."
I don't want to pull everyone down to make everyone equal. I want to
give everyone the tools to climb as high as they can dream.
Even as we fix our schools, the question remains: will
there be good jobs for the kids? And that's the third part of my
agenda: sharpening businesses' competitive edge. I learned my
economics the way most of you did -- a lot of late nights sweating
over 8 balance sheet, or P & L statement, trying to meet a payroll.
And I saw that if people are allowed to keep more of what they
produce, they will produce more. It's common sense.
When capital is taxed lightly, there's more of it. And
when it is taxed heavily, it becomes scarce -- available only to
those who are already wealthy, who need it least of all. That's not
the kind of economy that I want.
And if capital were more abundant. labor would be more
in demand, wages would rise, unemployment lines would shrink. That
is the kind of economy that I want. And that's why I want enterprise
zones in our inner cities and in our rural areas. That's why I want
to make this research and development, this R & D tax credit
permanent. And that's why I want to cut the capital gains tax and
index it for inflation. (Applause.)
Those are the fundamentals. I also see three other ways
to sharpen the competitive edge of American business:
-- first, strengthening small business, by cutting
taxes, making sure that credit is available, and by
lifting the deadweight of government regulation;
-- second, supporting civilian R & D, by bringing the
development, production and marketing of technology
closer to the consumer;
-- and third, reforming our legal system. Every year
American business and consumers spend up to $200 billion just in
direct costs to lawyers -- far more than our competitors in Japan and
Europe. And my product liability reform and access to justice act
will restore rationality to the system and stop undermining the
American worker. (Applause.)
This is a fact: We will never lead the world in the
21st century until we learn to sue each other less and care for each
other more. (Applause.)
The fourth part of my agenda: promoting economic
security -- for working men and women.
Again, common sense shows the way: true security will
come only by developing individual capability, not dependency. And
government. that independence, in turn, comes through the private sector. not the
- 7 -
Government's role will be to case individuals'
adjustment to a fast-changing marketplace. The average worker today
will change jobs, it's estimated, 10 times over the course of his or
her working life.
so we need a wider and more flexible range of job
training and placement services -- for both the young and old, the
blue and white-collar worker, and now especially for our workers from
the defense industries.
Pensions must be portable -- and health care must be
affordable. Our health care system today, I think everyone here
would agree. provides the best care, but at an unacceptable price.
More than thirty million Americans have no health insurance. Health
care costs are the fastest-rising part of our budget for government,
businesses, and yes, families.
My reforms get to the base of these problems while
preserving and building on our system's strengths -- our state-of-
the-art care, openness to innovation, and consumer choice. Taken
together, my reforms cut health care costs by $394 billion over five
years.
MY opponent's plan could eventually place a full 13
percent of our economy under the control of the federal
government -- meaning more bureaucracy, rationed care, inefficient
service and, in the end, higher costs.
We must enhance competition and market forces, not
restrict them; we must preserve individual choice, not hand decision-
making over to centralized bureaucracies; we must reduce the burden
on employers and employees, not bury them in a tide of new taxes and
government regulations. (Applause.)
The programs I've outlined and that are detailed in this
agenda are based on the principles that will empower all Americans to
make their own choices and better their lives. But I believe we need
to do more for some of our citizens who have been left behind. And
that is the fifth component of this agenda: leaving no one behind.
The American Dream is nothing more than the belief that
all Americans can make a better life for their children. The dream
has made us the most dynamic society in the world; it's yet another
strength we can draw upon for the challenge ahead. And so we must
give every American a shot at making good on the dream.
And I reject the shopworn logic that sees poverty as a
simple lack of income -- a kind of economic shortfall that can be
replaced with a government check. A conservative philosophy of
empowerment must have at its foundation the creation of character,
through the ownership of property, through the dignity of work. That
means sweeping away the nightmare of crime from our cities. building
a core of property owners, creating business incentives, and making
individual discipline and self-reliance the goal of all of our
programs
I call the final component of my agenda -- "rightsizing
government."
You'll recognize that I take the term from the business
world -- which has a lot to teach those of us in government. At a
time when companies across the country have been restructuring,
increasing efficiency -- all to prepare for the economic competition
of tomorrow -- the federal government faces an obligation to do the
same. (Applause.)
Today the federal government spends nearly twenty-four
cents of every dollar -- twenty-four cents of every dollar of the
nation's income. And that's the fact: government is too big and
- 8 -
spends too much. The size and structure of government are relics of
a different age -- artifacts more suited to the dilemmas of 50 years
ago than the problems of today. Every institution in our society has
learned that by pushing power down through organizations, by using
technology to speed the flow of information, you don't just save
money, you improve productivity. It's time for the government to do
the same.
I will streamline government -- consolidating agencies,
tightening budgets, and cutting the salaries of highly paid federal
employees. And I'll start by cutting the White House budget 33
percent if the Congress cuts its own budget by the same amount.
(Applause.) You might say: Why the linkage? well, with fewer
congressional staff badgering us for endless reports and endless
visits to Capitol Hill, I know we can cut costs by that amount.
(Applause. ) And I'll cut the salaries of all federal employees
earning more than $75,000 by 5 percent. Taxpayers have tightened
their belts. The better-paid federal workers should do the same.
The agenda I publish today contains specific proposals
to cut the fat: a cap on the growth in mandatory spending --
without touching social security -- and a freeze on domestic
spending; a balanced budget amendment, a line-item veto -- (applause)
-- and a new mechanism -- disciplinary mechanism -- a check-off box
on tax returns to give the taxpayer the power to cut the deficit. I
will fight to reduce spending and spur growth so we can get this
budget in balance.
And unlike my opponent, I do not believe the American
people are undertaxed. Quite the opposite: I am committed to cutting
taxes across the board. And let me offer an example -- this is just
an example -- as an illustration of what we could do: My cap on the
growth of mandatory spending allows for population growth and
inflation. It specifically exempts Social Security. But that cap
alone, with those caveats, would save about $300 billion over five
years. If we used just $130 billion in specific spending cuts that I
have already proposed -- specific spending cuts of $130 billion that
I have already proposed -- we could cut income tax rates by one
percentage point across the board; reduce the small business tax rate
from 15 percent to 10 percent, and reduce the tax on capital gains.
That's the direction that I want to go: tax less, spend
less, cut the deficit, and redirect our current spending to serve the
interests of all Americans. I honestly believe that this is the way
-- the only way -- to control the size of the federal government.
The facts are painful, but plain: For congressmen, spending is
power. And they will exercise that power until they have spent every
last dime they can squeeze from the working men and women of America.
And it's as simple as this: raising taxes won't cut the deficit.
Here, then, is my agenda for American renewal. It comes
at a time unique in our history, a turning point, a moment when one
era is passing away and another is being born.
In the agenda published today, you'll find 13 proposals
that I intend to achieve in the first year of my second term. I
present them as a single program, a unified strategy to make. change
work for America.
over the last three years I've shown how America can
change the world; and we've made a respectable start managing the
change at home. our primary task now is to target America.
I intend to fight for this agenda, to fight as hard as I
can. with a new Congress that can have as many as 150 new members, I
am optimistic. If congress balks, will move forward anyway -- just
as I have done with education, regulatory and welfare reform. I'll
work with our great governors, like John Engler, with the state and
local governments, with the private sector -- with anyone who shares
the urge to renew our country.
peace, have shaken the world. with the close of the Cold war recent achieve years
The American people know that the events of
that. The prosperity and promise at home. The American people we can want
American people deserve that.
empower stimulate entrepreneurial capitalism, not punish I want
And I want America to seize this moment. to
bureaucracies. people to make their own choices, not yoke it; them I want to
of trade and And I will fight without hesitation regulates less,
and taxes less. I want a government that spends less, to new
never retreat capital -- and 1deas around the world -- because for a Americans free flow
we always compete. (Applause.)
we to will meet renew this challenge. We will create a $10-trillion our government And
My agenda draws together our people and
America. And we will win the peace. (Applause.) economy.
destiny; how never be the same. America will change -- that's matter our
many age -- Americans. will The world that we knew as children very -- difficult no for your
I know that times have been very,
it will change will soon be decided.
principles, consider carefully whose agenda for change best fits you face,
I ask, as you consider the choice that to
and prosperity. our national experience, and our hopes for America's lasting peace
great country. Thank Thank you you. for your (Applause.) attention. And may God bless our
END
1:40 P.M. EDT
PAGE 1
LEVEL 1 - 10 OF 22 DOCUMENTS
Copyright 1983 Gerald F. Lieberman
3,500 Good Quotes for Speakers
SUBJECT: MONEY
LENGTH: 22 words
SOURCE: Anonymous American Congressman
QUOTE:
... fellas. Since I'm on the Appropriations Committee
I'd feel like a cheapskate if I said "Thanks a million. #
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LEVEL 1 - 2 OF 54 STORIES
Copyright 1992 The Atlanta Constitution
The Atlanta Journal and Constitution
May 26, 1992
SECTION: EDITORIAL; Section A; Page 8
LENGTH: 346 words
HEADLINE: Senate's urban aid package is epitome of pork-barrel
BYLINE: Durwood McAlister
KEYWORD: los/angeles; police; assault; verdicts; violence; congress; aid;
disasters
The U.S. Senate is modern-day proof of the dictum of the late Sen. Everett
Dirksen, the gravelly voiced Illinois conservative. "A billion here and a
billion there," he once said, "and pretty soon you're talking about real
money. H
Ed
Dmr
The Toronto Star, March 25, 1992
But while the major zillion-dollar economic issues of the day may be too
awesome for average folks to grasp easily (as the late great Illinois Sen.
Everett M. Dirksen once said, "A million here and million there, and pretty
soon you're talking about real money" ), everybody can relate to a bounced
cheque.
How appropriate that the same Capitol Hill gang that proved itself
incompetent ("Stop me before I spend again!") to control the runaway deficits of
the Reagan era is full of members who are unable to live within their own means.
It only confirms what 50 many have suspected all along, that the
Democrat-controlled Congress could be doing a lot more to respond to the
problems of
...
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LEVEL 1 - - 6 OF 54 STORIES
Copyright 1992 Chicago Tribune Company
Chicago Tribune
March 18, 1992, Wednesday, NORTH SPORTS FINAL EDITION
SECTION: PERSPECTIVE; Pg. 21; ZONE: C
LENGTH: 799 words
HEADLINE: House bank scandal catches Congress with its ethics down
BYLINE: Clarence Page.
... practice they didn't think was worthy of much attention until now.
Small wonder. The thousands of dollars involved sound like small potatoes
next to the deficit, the savings-and-loan scandal and the evaporation of the
"peace dividend."
But, while the major zillion-dollar economic issues of the day may be too
awesome for average folks to grasp easily (as the late great Illinois Sen.
Everett M. Dirksen once said, "A million here and million there, and pretty
LEVEL 1 - - 15 OF 54 STORIES
Copyright 1991 American Lawyer Newspapers Group, Inc.
The Connecticut Law Tribune
April 8, 1991
SECTION: THE BOTTOM LINE; Pg. 30
LENGTH: 861 words
HEADLINE: A Million Matters Even in Billion Dollar Bailout
BYLINE: BY ALLAN SLOAN; Allan Sloan is a columnist with New York Newsday.
... New York City less than market prices for nautical memorabilia taken over
from a dead S&L. Add the discount the state of California will probably get on
Pacific Lumber junk bonds that it wants to buy from the FDIC to trade for
redwood forests.
None of these deals matter in the big picture, but they add up. Or, to
paraphrase the late Sen. Everett Dirksen, "A million here, a million there,
and pretty soon you're talking about real money. "
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1
1991 Los Angeles Times, June 17, 1991
Not anymore. Today, according to Deutsch, vice president in charge of the
Washington office of TPF&C, a consulting firm, there is no such thing as a
"typical employee."
With the growing diversity in the workplace, more and more single parents,
women and minorities are entering the job market, and fewer are making a
career with a single employer. The federal government predicts that the
average worker will change jobs at least six times and change careers as
many as three times before retiring past the traditional age of 65.
plan for any kind of benefit means an employer knows at the start of the
fiscal year exactly how much money it will cost to provide employee benefits.
But while the gamble for the company with a defined-benefit plan is higher,
the savings are apt to be greater. With fewer and fewer workers spending their
careers with a single company, employers with defined-benefit plans will
probably pay out much less money.
As a result, Deutsch sees a lot of his clients maintaining a mix of
defined-benefit pensions and savings plans in which the company makes a matching
contribution of some level.
The Washington Post, January 4, 1991
her congressional career. Martin's nomination has the support of Illinois's
two Democratic senators, including her November election rival, Paul Simon.
Confirmation hearings have not been scheduled, but she is expected to win Senate
approval easily.
major issue facing Martin is stepped-up enforcement of federal pension
laws and an ongoing study started by Dole two years ago to devise a way to make
pensions portable so workers would not lose retirement credits as they shifted
from one job to another over a lifetime. The government predicts the average
worker entering the work force today will change jobs at least six times
over his or her lifetime.
Another major enforcement area under Dole has been health and safety
regulations. Under the Bush administration, the department's Occupational Safety
and Health Administration has dramatically increased activity, with major new
programs in the meatpacking and petrochemical industries and a general
willingness to take on major corporations.
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LEVEL 1 - - 7 OF 33 STORIES
Copyright 1990 Newspaper Publishing PLC
The Independent
November 25, 1990, Sunday
SECTION: BUSINESS ON SUNDAY MONEY PAGE; Page 16
LENGTH: 762 words
HEADLINE: Thatcher's legacy to homeowners
BYLINE: By VIVIEN GOLDSMITH, Money Editor
... pension entitlements going back to 1975. The service is free and aims to
put people in touch with scheme trustees.
More than four million people have preserved benefits, and some people have
more than one. When you add in widows' and widowers' benefits, there may be as
many as six million potential claims.
The Occupational Pensions Board estimates that the typical worker will
change jobs an average of four times in the course of a career and some
LEVEL 1 - 8 OF 33 STORIES
Copyright 1990 The Press Association Limited
Press Association Newsfile
November 24, 1990, Saturday
SECTION: HOME NEWS
LENGTH: 107 words
HEADLINE: BOARD PLANS 'LOST' PENSIONS SERVICE
BYLINE: Andrew Stevens, Press Association Economics Correspondent
KEYWORD:
ECONOMY; Pension
The board is demanding details of all pension schemes with two or more members
at April 30 next year when it will launch a tracing service to help locate
preserved pensions and benefits dating back to 1975. The board estimates that
the average worker will change jobs an average of four times in the course
of a career and some will inevitably lose track of their schemes. And schemes
may be taken over, their names changed, and companies may disappear. The cost
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3
1990 Los Angeles Times, June 28, 1990
"The days of working for one employer for 30 or 40 years are now the
exception and not the rule," Dole said. One in five Americans changes jobs
each year, and one in 10 changes careers. "Some experts predict that the
average worker will soon hold up to 10 jobs during his career, " she said.
So Dole has made pension portability a main goal of her tenure at Labor.
But the rollover figures make it clear that the kind of portability now
offered poses too great a temptation for the worker. If employees are passing
through the BMW dealership on the way from Job 1 to Job 2, portability
(c) 1990 The New York Times, May 17, 1990
More People Changing Jobs
Each year, one in five working Americans changes jobs and one in 10 changes
careers, Mrs. Dole said. Some experts predict the average worker will soon
hold up to 10 jobs before retiring, she said.
'The days of working for one employer for 30 to 40 years are now the
exception and not the rule,'' she said.
Mrs. Dole also called for the expansion of pension coverage for employees of
small businesses.
Businesses with fewer than 25 workers, often unable to
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McGroarty/Walters
September 10, 1992
3:00 p.m.
[JCMO]
PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS:
JOBS CORPS SITE
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI
SEPTEMBER 11, 1992
12:40 P.M.
Thank you,
,
for those kind words. / When you're
done here, I'd like to pack you up and take you back to
Washington. There's a certain House on the Hill back there
that's in need of a little renovation. // You know Bob Vila's
show: This Old House? Well, there's an old House back in
Washington that hasn't been cleaned out for 38 years. //
Let me tell you why I'm here at [Xxxx Center] cutting into
your coffee break. I've just seen first-hand the fruits of your
labor -- the skills you'll use to succeed in an economy that
seems to change by the day. Today, I want talk to you about your
world: Tell you how America as a nation is ready to move forward
to a future of peace and prosperity -- share with you my Agenda
for American Renewal, the agenda that's going to shape that world
for the better. //
I am proud to be the first President who can say: The Cold
War is over -- and freedom finished first. But with change comes
new challenges. Now that the Cold War is over, we've got to cope
with the consequences of our success. The defining challenge of
the 90's is to win the peace -- to win the competition of the new
global economy. // Let me put the challenge this way: In the
21st Century, America must be not only a military superpower, but
an economic superpower -- an export superpower.
4
economy. / America won't be right until we start suing each
other less -- and start caring for one another more. //
Fourth, our Agenda for American Renewal must mean an America
that leaves no one behind. That means programs that break the
cycle of dependency. That help public housing tenants become
homeowners
... That help people on welfare find work
...
That
help people without hope take heart. We don't owe every American
a living -- but we do owe every American an opportunity. //
Fifth, my agenda will bring change to one of the most hide-
bound institutions in America: The government. I call my idea
"right-sizing" government. But whatever we call it, I know
you'll agree: Government is too big, and it spends too much. //
It reminds me of what Senator Dirksen used to say about the
size of government back in the 1960s. He used to say: "A
million here, a million there -- pretty soon, you're talking
about real money.' " //
Well, I've asked my economic advisors to index Senator
Dirksen's million dollars for inflation. In 1992 it's "x.x
million here, X.X million there " / And if you think that's
bad -- what about the federal budget: It's grown from (xx)
billion back when 1970 you were born to $1.5 trillion dollars a year
I
today. Nowadays, you can't get a bureaucrat up out of bed in the
morning unless he's got a few billion to push around.
That's what's wrong with government. People who never met a
payroll, never started a business -- people who don't know the
first thing about making a buck -- playing with billions of your
For Ed
McGroarty/Walters
September 10, 1992
12:00 noon
[JCMO]
PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS: JOBS CORPS SITE
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI
SEPTEMBER 11, 1992
XX:00 A.M.??
Thank you,
,
for those kind words.
Let me tell you why I'm here at [Xxxx Center] cutting into
your coffee break. I've seen first-hand what you're doing here -
- how you're learning the skills that will help you succeed in an
economy that seems to change by the day. Today, I want talk to
you about your world: Tell you how America as a nation is ready
to move forward to a future of peace and prosperity -- share with
you my Agenda for American Renewal, the agenda that's going to
shape that world for the better. //
I am proud to be the first President who can say: The Cold
War is over -- and freedom finished first. But with change comes
new challenges. Now that the Cold War is over, we've got to cope
with the consequences of our success. The defining challenge of
the 90's is to win the peace -- to win the competition of the new
global economy. // Let me put the challenge this way: In the
21st Century, America must be not only a military superpower, but
an economic superpower -- an export superpower.
Between now and November 3rd, you'll hear two versions of
how to do this: My opponent's answer is to look inward -- to
pretend we can protect what we already have. Our answer is to
look forward -- open new markets, prepare our people to compete,
2
strengthen our families, to save and invest -- so that, when it
comes to the global competition -- America will win. //
And I don't know about you, but I just can't join the crowd
that's always ready to run this country down. If you want to
talk to the most productive workers in the world -- you don't
have to brush up on your German, or take a crash course in
Japanese. You can start right here in the USA -- because the
American worker is the most productive worker in the world. //
But just as you can't drive a nail without a hammer, you
can't build a dream without a job. You're here at [xxxx] because
you made the decision to meet the real-world head-on. / Last
month, I announced a series of new initiatives to focus federal
job training on the kind of real-world skills Americans of all
ages need in this new world economy. //
To help young people find that first job -- a program we
call the Youth Training Corps, to get inner-city kids off the
mean streets
...
get them a second chance to build the skills
they need to succeed. For older workers who've lost their job -
- or worry that next pay envelope may bring a pink slip, we've
developed a new idea called Skill Grants: vouchers worth $3000
dollars, to be used towards the training program of their choice.
And let me say: choice is critical. I don't see job
training as an excuse to shoehorn you into whatever program has
an open slot, or the next box on some bureaucrat's checklist -- I
want to give you the power to decide your own future, get you
training in the kind of career that you choose.
3
But job training is just part of the picture. If we want to
win the competition I've just spoken about we need a coherent
strategy -- one that sees that in today's world, foreign policy,
domestic policy and economic policy are three sides of a single
issue. / Yesterday in Detroit I set out such a strategy -- what
I call my Agenda for American Renewal: Six challenges we must
meet to move America forward. //
America must challenge the world with a global trade
strategy -- a network of free trade arrangements East and West,
North and South. At the same time, we're going to foster the
capabilities at home that will keep us in the lead.
My Agenda for American Renewal starts with these facts:
Right now, in our factories, 1 in 6 jobs are tied directly to
trade. On our farms, 1 in three acres we plant will be sold
abroad. And in the century ahead -- in your lifetimes -- the
percentage of your paycheck that comes from what America sells
abroad is only going to grow. The bottom line in our new world
economy is this: Exports equal jobs. //
But developed economies need developing minds. That's why
my Agenda for American Renewal takes aim at the critical
challenge -- preparing our children for the new century ahead.
That means a revolution in American education.
Think about a government policy that gave you one store to
shop in, and one product to buy. Think about the quality you
could expect. No, I'm not talking about the old Soviet Union.
Change the word "store" to "school," and you'll see I'm talking
4
about America's public education system, and the monopoly power
it has over our kids.
Competition works in our economy -- it's time to bring some
competition to the classroom. Whether it's the public school
across town or the private or religious school across the street,
parents, not the government, should decide which school is best
for their kids. //
Now, the third key component of my agenda for American
renewal: Helping America's businesses sharpen their competitive
edge. Small businesses are the heartbeat of this American
economy; they create 2/3 of all new American jobs -- and they're
the first to turn change to advantage in a fast-moving economy.
We sharpen our competitive edge in several ways: By funding
a strong federal R&D program, with a focus on basic research.
From electric cars, to aerospace, biotechnology to the next
generation of supercomputers: We can help push ahead the
technologies of tomorrow. We've also got to ease the burden on
small business. Small businesses need relief -- from over-
regulation / taxation / and litigation.
And let me expand on this last point. America's become the
land of the lawsuit -- a $200 billion dollar a year drain on our
economy. / America won't be right until we start suing each
other less -- and start caring for one another more. //
Fourth: we've got to promote economic security for working
Americans. That means job training -- the reason you're here --
to give you the skills that mean success. Health care reform -
5
- to make health insurance affordable to all Americans, and make
sure you're never locked into a job you want to leave because
you're worried you may lose your health care coverage. And
security means a retirement or pension plan that you can take
with you throughout your career.
I really believe you've got opportunities your parents never
dreamed of -- but I know you've also got worries your Mom and Dad
didn't have. According to some studies, just 2 percent of you
will work the same job from now until retirement. The average
worker can expect to change jobs 10 times during the course of
his career. You need real-world security -- security that means
something in the new world you'll work in.
Fifth, our Agenda for American Renewal must mean an America
that leaves no one behind. That means programs that break the
cycle of dependency. That help public housing tenants become
homeowners
That help people on welfare find work
That
help people without hope take heart. We don't owe every American
a living -- but we do owe every American an opportunity. //
Finally, my Agenda for American renewal will not be complete
unless it brings change to one of the most hide-bound
institutions in America: The government. I call my idea "right-
sizing" government. But whatever we call it, I know you'll
agree: Government is too big, and it spends too much. //
It reminds me of the old saying of Senator Everett Dirksen.
He used to say: "A million here, a million there -- pretty soon,
you're talking about real money." // Well, since then, that
6
million's been adjusted for inflation. Nowadays, you can't get a
bureaucrat up out of bed in the morning unless he's got a few
billion to push around. //
That's what's wrong with government. People who never met a
payroll, never started a business -- people who don't know the
first thing about making a buck -- playing with billions of your
money. // Right now, every year, the federal government spends
$1.5 trillion dollars -- $1.5 trillion. My opponent isn't big on
bringing that up -- because Bill Clinton wants to make government
even bigger. // To be precise, he's already on record for $220
billion dollars in new spending -- and $150 billion in new taxes.
Now my opponent likes to tell you he'll only raise taxes on
the rich. But I'll tell you this: Bill Clinton's going to end
up taxing the Middle Class for the same reason Willie Sutton
robbed banks: "Because that's where the money is." //
Well, I don't think people are undertaxed. I think
government spends too much. And if Congress enacted the package
of spending cuts I proposed in this year's budget -- those cuts
would let us lighten the tax burden on small business, and cut
income tax rates across the board. / And my agenda includes a
new idea to drive down the deficit -- by giving the American
taxpayer power to earmark a full 10 percent of his federal tax
dollars for one purpose, and one purpose only: to pay down the
national debt.
This Agenda for American Renewal is about all the things we
must do to prepare for our future -- and about the one thing all
7
of us want. Together, we can empower America to reach a grand
goal: To become a $10 trillion dollar economy by the year 2000.
Every election is a referendum on the future. The real
question is: how we get there? One side wants to use government
to dictate the course of change -- I want to use government to
clear the way for people to make the decisions that matter in
life. One side puts its trust in government. I say: let's
trust the American people. //
The great ideas that make this economy grow don't begin in
the marbled halls of some federal building back in Washington.
More great ideas -- more of our GDP -- begin at a basement
workbench, at the computer on your kitchen table, with the
savings you set aside to start a business of your own. //
America is the envy of the world: not because its
government is great -- but because its people are great. Because
the American people are builders who dream, and dreamers who
build.
We need a government that understands that fundamental fact.
A government that knows when to help -- and when to get out of
the way. My program -- my Agenda for American Renewal -- will
make the next American Century a new American Century, a time of
peace and prosperity for all. //
Thank you all for this warm welcome -- and may God bless
this great nation, the United States of America.
# # #
McGroarty/Walters
September 10, 1992
8:00 p.m.
[JCMO]
PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS: JOBS CORPS CENTER
EXCELSIOR SPRINGS, MISSOURI
SEPTEMBER 11, 1992
12:40 P.M.
Thank you, Booker [T. Jones, President and CEO of the
company that runs the Job Corps Center], for those kind words.
Governor John Ashcroft; John Douglas and Wayne Jenkins from the
Department of Labor; and John Thomas, president of the student
body here, thank you. /
Just before I came here today, I met with a home-team hero -
- Derrick Thomas, who runs the Third and Long Foundation, when
he's not running down opposing quarterbacks. On Sundays you know
him as Number 58 -- but today, he's number 832: America's 832nd
Daily Point of Light. // Actually, when I got right up next to
Derrick, I didn't know whether "Point of Light" would do it -- I
thought maybe we should name him a lighthouse. //
And I know Derrick will agree when I say it's great to see
the team spirit here at Job Corps. //
We're in a political season so tough it makes what goes on
in Arrowhead Stadium seem like two-hand touch. So when you're
all done here, I'd like to invite all the carpenters here back to
Washington. There's a certain House on the Hill back there
that's in need of a little renovation. // You know Bob Vila's
show: This Old House? Well, there's an old House of
Representatives back in Washington that hasn't been cleaned out
for 38 years. //
2
Let me tell you why I'm here at Jobs Corps cutting into your
lunch hour. I've just seen first-hand the fruits of your labor -
- the skills you'll use to succeed in an economy that seems to
change by the day. Today, I want talk to you about your world:
Tell you how America as a nation is ready to move forward to a
future of peace and prosperity -- share with you my Agenda for
American Renewal, the agenda that's going to shape that world for
the better. //
I am proud to be the first President who can say: The Cold
War is over -- and freedom finished first. But with change comes
new challenges. Now that the Cold War is over, we've got to cope
with the consequences of our success. The defining challenge of
the 90s is to win the peace -- to win the competition of the new
global economy. // Let me put the challenge this way: In the
21st Century, America must be not only a military superpower, but
an economic superpower -- an export superpower.
We start with an honest appraisal of our weaknesses -- and
our strengths. My opponent talks about an America in decline --
but just remember: If you want to talk to the most productive
workers in the world -- you don't have to fly to Japan ...
you
don't have to hop a flight to Germany: You can look right here
in the USA -- because the American worker is the most productive
worker in the world. //
Now: How do we guarantee that our workers will still be the
world's most productive -- and that there will be plenty of high-
wage jobs in your future? / Yesterday in Detroit I set out a
3
strategy -- what I call my Agenda for American Renewal: Six
challenges we must meet to move America forward. And I set a
goal: Today our national economy is nearing $6 trillion dollars.
My agenda will make America the world's first $10 trillion dollar
economy by the first years of the 21st Century. //
My Agenda for American Renewal starts with these facts:
Right now, in our factories, 1 of every 6 jobs is tied to trade.
On our farms, produce from 1 in every 3 acres we harvest will be
sold abroad. In the century ahead -- in your lifetimes -- the
percentage of your paycheck that comes from what America sells
abroad is only going to grow. The bottom line in our new world
economy is this: Exports equal jobs. //
I have faith that if we open foreign markets, our workers
will satisfy the demand for our products. So my agenda starts
with a global trade strategy -- a network of new free trade
arrangements from Chile to Czechoslovakia, from the Pacific
nations to Poland. At the same time, we're going to foster the
capabilities at home that will keep us in the lead.
But developed economies need developing minds. That's why
my Agenda for American Renewal takes aim at the critical
challenge -- preparing our children for the new century ahead.
That means a revolution in American education.
Competition works in our economy -- it's time to bring some
competition to the classroom. Whether it's the public school
across town or the private or religious school across the street,
4
I believe parents, not the government, should decide which school
is best for their kids. //
Now, the third key component of my agenda for American
renewal: Helping America's businesses sharpen their competitive
edge. Small businesses create 2/3 of all new American jobs --
and they're the first to turn change to advantage in a fast-
moving economy. We've got to ease the burden on small business.
Small businesses need relief -- from tight credit / over-
regulation / taxation / and litigation.
Let me expand on this last point. America has become the
land of the lawsuit -- a $200 billion dollar a year drain on our
economy. / America won't work until we start suing each other
less -- and start caring for one another more. //
Fourth, my Agenda for American Renewal means promoting
economic security for working Americans. That means health care
reform to make health insurance affordable to all Americans,
and make sure you're never locked into a job you want to leave
because you're worried you may lose your health care coverage.
It means a retirement or pension plan that you can take with you
throughout your career. And security means job training -- the
reason you're here -- to give you the skills that mean success.
Fifth, our Agenda for American Renewal must mean an America
that leaves no one behind. That means programs that break the
cycle of dependency. That help public housing tenants become
homeowners
that help people on welfare find work
that
5
help people without hope take heart. We don't owe every American
a living -- but we do owe every American an opportunity. //
And finally, my agenda won't be complete until we bring
change to one of the most hide-bound institutions in America:
The government. I call my idea "right-sizing" government. But
whatever we call it, I know you', 11 agree: Government is too big,
and it spends too much. //
My opponent wants to make big government even bigger. To be
precise, he's already on record for at least $220 billion dollars
in new spending -- and $150 billion in new taxes.
Now my opponent likes to tell you he'll only raise taxes on
the rich. But I'll tell you this: Bill Clinton's going to end
up taxing all working Americans for the same reason outlaw Willie
Sutton robbed banks: "Because that's where the money is." //
Well, I don't think people are undertaxed. I think
government spends too much. That's why my agenda includes a new
idea to drive down the deficit -- by giving the American taxpayer
power to earmark a full 10 percent of his federal tax dollars for
one purpose, and one purpose only: to pay down the national
debt. It is time to rightsize our government.
My new plan will touch each of your lives. I really believe
you've got opportunities your parents never dreamed of -- but I
know you've also got worries your Mom and Dad didn't have.
According to some studies, just 2 percent of you will work the
same job from now until retirement. The average worker can
expect to change jobs 10 times during the course of his career.
6
You need real-world security --- skills you can put to work now -
- and ten years from now. //
But just as you can't drive a nail without a hammer, you
can't build a dream without a job. You're here at Job Corps
because you know what it's like to have the determination but
lack the skills to get a job -- and you decided you were going to
do something about it. //
Well, America has work to do -- and we can't let your drive
go to waste. // Maybe fifty years ago, a strong back might have
been enough to get a good job. In our changing economy, it's not
enough any more. What you earned yesterday with sweat -- you've
got to earn tomorrow with skills. That's why last month, I
announced new initiatives to focus federal job training on the
kind of real-world skills Americans like you -- and Americans of
all ages need in this new world economy.
To help young people find that first job -- a program we
call the Youth Training Corps, modeled after Job Corps programs
like this one, to get inner-city kids off the mean streets, and
give them a second chance to build the skills they need to
succeed. For older workers who've lost their job -- or worry
that next pay envelope may bring a pink slip, we've developed a
new idea called Skill Grants: vouchers worth $3000 dollars, to
be used towards the training program of their choice.
And let me say: choice is critical. You know what I mean.
You don't need I don't see job training as an excuse to shoehorn
you into whatever program has an open slot, or the next. box on
7
some bureaucrat's checklist -- I want to give you the power to
decide your own future, get you training in the kind of career
that you choose. //
My Agenda for American Renewal is about all the things we
must do to prepare for our future -- and about the one thing all
of us want. Together, we can empower America to reach a grand
goal: To become the world's first $10 trillion dollar economy.
Every election is a referendum on the future. The real
question is: how do we get there? One side wants to use
government to dictate the course of change -- I want to use
government to clear the way for people to make the decisions that
matter in life. One side puts its trust in government. I say:
let's trust the American people. //
((These days, it seems my opponent's taking his campaign strategy
from Hulk Hogan. I'm trying to take this campaign to the high-
ground -- and deal head-on, in a serious way, with the problems
and the possibilities
))
I'm offering a diagnosis of the economic problems facing
our country. I'm presenting a comprehensive agenda of integrated
ideas to address these problems. And I'm running a campaign to
seek a mandate for my agenda.
The great ideas that make this economy grow don't begin in
the marbled halls of some federal building back in Washington.
More great ideas -- more of our GDP -- begins at a basement
workbench, at the computer on your kitchen table, with the
savings you set aside to start a business of your own. //
8
America is the envy of the world: not because its
government is great -- but because its people are great. Because
the American people are builders who dream, and dreamers who
build.
We need a government that understands that fundamental fact.
A government that knows when to help -- and when to get out of
the way. My program -- my Agenda for American Renewal -- will
make the next American Century a new American Century, a time of
peace and prosperity for all. //
Thank you all for this warm welcome -- and may God bless
this great nation, the United States of America.
# # #
SEP 9 '92 15:30 FROM US TRADE REP
PAGE. 001
Instructions to Sender: Please be certain all shaded areas are completed and no staples.
FACSIMILE COVER SHEET
OFFICE OF THE UNITED STATES TRADE REPRESENTATIVE
Executive Office of the President
Washington. D.C. 20506
Clearance (to Geneva)
Section # i 09
Time Sent
Date : 9/9/92
C.D. Log Number
Number of Pages Excluding Cover 3
TO: NAME:
AGENCY:
PHONE #:
FAX #:
WMITE MOUSE
JENNIFER
SPEECHWRITING
( ) 7750
( ) 6218
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
FROM:
DAVID WALTERS CHIEF ECONOMIST
PHONE:
x 3583
FAX #:
(202)395-3911
CONTACT:
If There are any problems please call: (202)395-3419
SUBJECT:
SEP 9 '92 15:30
FROM US TRADE REP
PAGE. 002
MISSOURI
EXPORTS & JOBS
THE NORTH AMERICAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT
Missouri's Merchandise Exports to Mexico
Missouri's Merchandise Exports to Canada
Totalled $288 Million in 1991
Totalled $1.7 Billion in 1991
$450
Manufacturing
$1.9
Manufacturing
$1.7 Billion
400
Non-Manufacturing
1.7
Non-Manufacturing
350
1.5
Millions of U.S. Dollars
300
200
Billions of U.S. Dollars
$1.3 Billion
$288 Million
1.3
250
1.1
$199 Million
0.9
150
0.7
100
0.5
50
0.3
1887
1988
1989
1990
1991
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
Manufactured exports accounted for 95 percent of Missouri's $2.0 billion in
exports to Canada and Mexico in 1991, and supported an estimated 78,000 jobs.
Missouri's sales to Mexico and Canada accounted for 52 percent of the state's total exports.
Since 1987, Missouri's exports to Mexico have grown 45 percent, while its exports to Canada
have grown by more than one-fourth.
Canada and Mexico are now Missouri's first- and second-largest export markets.
An estimated 23,000 new jobs have been created by growth in Missouri's manufactured
exports to our North American trade partners since 1987.
Composition of Missouri's Exports to
Composition of Missouri's Exports to
Mexico 1991: Total $288 Million
Canada 1991 Total $1.7 Billion
Food Products (14%)
Transportation (58%)
Agriculture (20%)
Electric/Electronics (12%)
Computers & Mach. (12%)
Other (15%)
Chemical Products (11%)
Other (24%)
Chemical Products (11%)
Primary Metal ind. (6%)
Fab. Motal Products (3%)
Computers & Mach. (9%)
Electric/Electronics (5%)
For More Information, contact: Office of the U.S. Trade Representative,
600 17th St., NW, Washington, D.C., 20506
August 1992
Exports and Employment By State:
PAGE PAGE.003
To the World, Canada and Mexico
Merchandise Exports and Estimated Employment Related to Manufactured Exports*
Exports and Estimated Employment: 1991
Change: 1987-1991
Job
Exports are in Billions of U.S. Dollars
(In Percent)
Change
World
Canada & Mexico
World
Canada & Mexico
1987-
STATE
Exports Employment
Exports Employment
Exports Jobs
Exports Jobs
1991
TOTAL
421.6
7,423,000
118.0
2,339,400
71%
33%
74%
38%
619,700
Alabama
3.8
110,000
0.8
25,700
55%
39%
50%
20%
4,300
Alaska
3.5
10,000
0.2
600
93%
11%
132%
49%
200
Arizona
5.5
107,000
1.5
29,400
83%
40%
60%
18%
4,500
Arkansas
1.3
59,000
0.5
21,200
90%
32%
101%
43%
6,400
California
63.1
972,000
12.0
184,500
84%
34%
113%
50%
61,300
Colorado
3.0
60,000
0.6
15,400
72%
29%
90%
37%
4,200
Connecticut
5.7
169,000
1.5
44,000
72%
33%
84%
39%
1,200
Delaware
1.8
17,000
1.2
11,700
107%
19%
105%
19%
1,800
Florida
17.6
276,000
2.1
28,300
70%
29%
126%
60%
10,600
Georgia
8.1
153,000
2.0
36,000
103%
34%
167%
99%
18,800
FROM US TRADE REP
lawaii
0.2
9,000
0.02
750
8%
30%
9%
64%
300
Idaho
1.0
26,000
0.2
4,400
100%
27%
108%
28%
1,000
Illinois
16.5
369,000
6.4
145,700
89%
33%
112%
50%
48,700
Indiana
6.4
221,000
2.8
95,000
54%
42%
37%
26%
19,500
owa
2.6
78,000
0.9
26,000
40%
29%
1%
13%
(3,800)
Kansas
2.4
65,000
0.8
20,000
46%
25%
97%
91%
9,500
Kentucky
3.6
88,000
1.1
30,000
56%
35%
60%
31%
7,000
Louisiana
16.5
70,000
1.1
68,000
21%
22%
39%
12%
700
Maine
1.0
32,000
0.4
11,200
59%
34%
54%
26%
2,300
Marviand
4.0
90,000
0.8
18,200
90%
34%
27%
18%
(4,000)
SEP 9 '92 15:31
Massachusetts
11.9
254,000
2.8
60,000
42%
33%
110%
95%
29,000
Michigan
23.2
360,000
16.8
260,000
28%
34%
18%
23%
48,200
Minnesota
6.4
153,000
1.8
40,000
55%
26%
51%
16%
5,700
Mississippi
2.0
57,000
0.5
15,000
52%
32%
76%
54%
5,200
Missouri
3.8
151,000
2.0
78,000
26%
36%
29%
41%
22,700
Exports and Estimated Employment: 1991
Change: 1987-1991
Job
Exports are in Billions of U.S. Dollars
(In Percent)
Change
World
Canada & Mexico
World
Canada & Mexico
1987-
Exports Employment
Exports Employment
Exports Jobs
Exports Jobs
1991
Montana
0.3
10,000
0.2
4,200
7%
19%
67%
45%
1,300
Nebraska
1.1
34,000
0.3
9,500
42%
30%
24%
11%
900
Nevada
0.5
14,000
0.1
3,800
27%
37%
84%
93%
1,800
New Hampshire
1.1
45,000
0.3
13,600
29%
29%
53%
49%
4,500
** TOTAL PAGE 004
New Jersey
10.9
242,000
3.2
72,000
61%
31%
148%
102%
36,400
New Mexico
0.3
18,000
0.1
2,700
106%
40%
70%
1%
34
New York
31.0
536,000
7.6
133,100
56%
37%
65%
35%
34,800
North Carolina
10.1
227,000
2.3
57,000
71%
39%
85%
45%
17,800
North Dakota
0.4
10,000
0.2
7,700
33%
14%
13%
14%
900
Ohio
16.9
424,000
7.6
185,000
68%
36%
76%
49%
61,300
Oklahoma
2.0
65,000
0.7
23,000
84%
31%
118%
48%
7,600
Oregon
5.1
91,000
0.8
17,100
67%
29%
57%
19%
2,700
Pennsylvannia
11.3
377,000
4.0
132,300
84%
38%
102%
51%
44,400
Rhode Island
0.8
42,000
0.2
13,200
54%
36%
100%
47%
4,200
South Carolina
4.3
115,040
0.9
24,500
90%
32%
93%
27%
5,200
South Dakota
0.2
15,000
0.1
6,800
261%
35%
188%
10%
600
FROM US TRADE REP
Tennessee
5.0
134,000
1.7
47,500
98%
35%
113%
39%
13,300
Texas
47.0
448,000
19.1
185,000
86%
29%
123%
50%
61,400
Utal
2.1
34,000
0.3
6,000
156%
36%
44%
23%
(1,800)
Vermont
2.4
28,000
2.0
23,300
227%
43%
330%
89%
11,000
Virginia
11.0
132,000
1.0
14,700
64%
30%
56%
15%
2,000
Washington
29.9
184,000
2.1
12,300
129%
29%
59%
15%
(2,100)
West Virginia
1.8
39,000
0.3
9,000
46%
32%
22%
13%
(1,400)
Wisconsin
6.1
177,000
2,2
64,500
55%
31%
41%
15%
8,500
Wyoming
0.3
6,000
0.04
600
43%
33%
47%
68%
(900)
SEP 9 '92 15:31
NOTES:
1. Areas with negative values are highlighted or extremely small in the case of New Mexico.
2. State employment related to manufactured exports for 1991 are USTR estimates based upon 1987 state
export-related employment data, the most recent data reported by the Department of Commerce.
3. Numbers may not add due to rounding.
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
September 9, 1992
MEMORANDUM FOR THE CHIEF OF STAFF
CHRISTINA MARTIN
PAUL BATEMAN
DAN MCGROARTY
DAVID BATES
LAURA MELILLO
TONY BENEDI
HENSON MOORE
PHILLIP BRADY
JANE MOORE
ANN BROCK
JANET MULLINS
MICHAEL BUSCH
ED MURNANE
NICK CALIO
ROGER PORTER
BILLY DALE
PATTY PRESOCK
DAVID DEMAREST
STEVEN PROVOST
BILL FARISH
SUSAN PORTER ROSE
LAURIE FIRESTONE
DENNIS ROSS
MARLIN FITZWATER
BRENT SCOWCROFT
CLAYTON FONG
DORRANCE SMITH
GARY FOSTER
JUDY SMITH
JOHN GAUGHAN
KATHY SUPER
BOYDEN GRAY
PEGGY SWIFT
KAREN GROOMES
MARGARET TUTWILER
CONSTANCE HORNER
DAVID VALDEZ
TOM HUFFORD
ROSE ZAMARIA
RON KAUFMAN
ROBERT ZOELLICK
BOBBIE KILBERG
USSS/PPD OPS
CECE KREMER
WHCA OPS
WILLIAM KRISTOL
MEDICAL UNIT
MICHAEL LUCAS
AIRLIFT OPS
WHTV
FROM:
JOHN G. KELLER, JR.
Jac
SUBJECT:
TRIP OF THE PRESIDENT TO JOPLIN, KANSAS CITY,
AND EXCELSIOR SPRINGS, MISSOURI; AND VIRGINIA
BEACH, VIRGINIA, ON FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 11,
1992
For your use and planning purposes, the attached is a preliminary
outline schedule for the Trip of the President to Joplin, Kansas
City, and Excelsior Springs, Missouri; and Virginia Beach,
Virginia, on Friday, September 11, 1992.
Please keep in mind the following information has not been
finally approved and is subject to change.
Attachments
PRELIMINARY OUTLINE SCHEDULE
Revised 9/9 3:30 pm EDT
Friday, September 11, 1992
GUEST AND STAFF INSTRUCTIONS:
6:15 am Vans depart West Basement
en route Andrews Air Force
Base.
6:35 am Those with own transportation
should arrive Andrews Air Force
Base, Distinguished Visitor's
Lounge, at this time.
7:00 am
MARINE ONE departs White House en route Andrews
Air Force Base.
(Flying Time: 10 Minutes)
7:10 am
MARINE ONE arrives Andrews Air Force Base.
7:20 am
AIR FORCE ONE departs Andrews Air Force Base en
(E.D.T.)
route Joplin, Missouri.
(Flying Time: 2 Hours 35 Minutes)
(Interchange: Yes/C-9/C-20)
(Time Change: Back 1 Hour)
8:55 am
AIR FORCE ONE arrives Joplin Regional Airport,
(C.D.T.)
Joplin, Missouri.
9:05 am
MOTORCADE departs Joplin Regional Airport en route
Oval at Missouri Southern State College.
(Drive Time: 5 Minutes)
9:10 am
MOTORCADE arrives Oval at Missouri Southern State
College.
*
REMARKS TO MISSOURI SOUTHERN STATE COLLEGE
- Open Press
- Remarks
- Teleprompter
- 7,500 Attendees
(9:15 am - 9:45 am)
9:50 am
MOTORCADE departs Oval at Missouri Southern State
College en route Contract Freighters, Inc.
(Drive Time: 10 Minutes)
10:00 am
MOTORCADE arrives Contract Freighters, Inc.
*
ASK GEORGE BUSH WITH CONTRACT FREIGHTERS
EMPLOYEES AND FAMILIES
- Open Press
- Question and Answer Session
(10:05 am - 10:25 am)
10:35 am
MOTORCADE departs Contract Freighters, Inc.
en route Joplin Regional Airport.
(Drive Time: 5 Minutes)
10:40 am
MOTORCADE arrives Joplin Regional Airport.
10:45 am
AIR FORCE ONE departs Joplin, Missouri
(C.D.T.)
en route Kansas City, Missouri.
(Flying Time: 55 Minutes)
(Interchange: Yes/C-9/C-20/Press)
(Time Change: None)
11:40 am
AIR FORCE ONE arrives Kansas City International
(C.D.T.)
Airport, Kansas City, Missouri.
11:50 am
MARINE ONE departs Kansas City International
Airport, Kansas city, Missouri, en route Job Corps
Center, Excelsior Springs, Missouri.
(Flying Time: 20 Minutes)
12:10 pm
MARINE ONE arrives Excelsior Springs Landing Zone.
12:15 pm
MOTORCADE departs Excelsior Springs Landing Zone
en route Job Corps Center, Excelsior Springs,
Missouri.
(Drive Time: 5 Minutes)
12:20 pm
MOTORCADE arrives Job Corps Center.
*
TOUR OF CARPENTRY SHOP
- Pool Coverage
(12:25 pm - 12:35 pm)
*
ADDRESS JOB CORPS CENTER STUDENTS AND
EMPLOYEES AND LOCAL COMMUNITY
- Open Press
- Remarks
- Teleprompter
- 1,500 Attendees
(12:40 pm - 1:05 pm)
1:10 pm
MOTORCADE departs Job Corps Center en route
Excelsior Springs Landing Zone.
(Drive Time: 5 Minutes)
1:15 pm
MOTORCADE arrives Excelsior Springs Landing
Zone.
1:20 pm
MARINE ONE departs Excelsior Springs, Missouri
en route Kansas City International Airport.
(Flying Time: 20 Minutes)
1:40 pm
MARINE ONE arrives Kansas City International
Airport.
1:45 pm
MOTORCADE departs Kansas City International
Airport en route Airport Hilton Plaza Inn.
(Drive Time: 5 Minutes)
1:50 pm
MOTORCADE arrives Airport Hilton Plaza Inn.
*
REMARKS TO MISSOURI VICTORY '92 LUNCHEON
- Closed Press
- Brief Remarks
- 250 Attendees
(1:55 pm - 2:10 pm)
*
PHOTO WITH VICTORY '92 MAJOR DONORS
- Closed Press
- 10 Photos
(2:15 pm - 2:25 pm)
*
PHOTO WITH VICTORY '92 SUPPORTERS
- Closed Press
- 35 Photos
(2:30 pm - 2:40 pm)
*
PRIVATE TIME: 30 MINUTES
(2:45 pm - 3:15 pm)
3:20 pm
MOTORCADE departs Hilton Airport Plaza Hotel
en route Kansas City International Airport.
(Drive Time: 5 Minutes)
3:25 pm
MOTORCADE arrives Kansas City International
Airport.
3:30 pm
AIR FORCE ONE departs Kansas City, Missouri en
(C.D.T.)
route Virginia Beach, Virginia.
(Flying Time: 2 Hours 25 Minutes)
(Interchange: Yes/C-9/C-20/Press)
(Time Change: Ahead 1 Hour)
6:55 pm
AIR FORCE ONE arrives Norfolk Naval Air Station,
(E.D.T.)
Virginia Beach, Virginia.
7:05 pm
MOTORCADE departs Norfolk Naval Air Station en
route Founders Inn and Conference Center.
(Drive Time: 10 Minutes)
7:15 pm
MOTORCADE arrives Founders Inn and Conference
Center.
*
RECEPTION AT PAT ROBERTSON'S RESIDENCE
- Closed Press
- Talking Points TBD
(7:20 pm - 7:35 pm)
*
PRIVATE TIME: 10 MINUTES
(7:37 pm - 7:47 pm)
*
ADDRESS CHRISTIAN COALITION ROAD TO VICTORY
CONFERENCE
- Open Press
- Remarks
- Teleprompter
(7:52 pm - 8:20 pm)
8:25 pm
MOTORCADE departs Founders Inn and Conference
Center en route Norfolk Naval Air Station.
(Drive Time: 10 Minutes)
8:35 pm
MOTORCADE arrives Norfolk Naval Air Station.
8:40 pm
AIR FORCE ONE departs Virginia Beach, Virginia
(E.D.T.)
en route Hagerstown, Maryland.
(Flying Time: 45 Minutes)
(Interchange: No)
(Time Change: None)
9:25 pm
AIR FORCE ONE arrives Hagerstown, Maryland.
(E.D.T.)
9:35 pm
MARINE ONE departs Hagerstown, Maryland en route
Camp David.
(Flying Time: 15 Minutes)
9:50 pm
MARINE ONE arrives Camp David.
To JEANNIE
Date
Time 3:00
WHILE YOU WERE OUT
M
Sheila Turner
of
Secrof Labor's Office
Phone
523 8274
Area Code
Number
Extension
TELEPHONED
X
PLEASE CALL
CALLED TO SEE YOU
WILL CALL AGAIN
WANTS TO SEE YOU
RETURNED YOUR URGENT CALL X
Message
Operator
$
AMPAD
23-021 - 200 SETS
EFFICIENCY®
23-421 - 400 SETS
CARBON
To JEANNIE
Date
Time 10:47
WHILE YOU WERE OUT
M Sheila
of John Shaw Sec. at Agst Labar
Phone
523 8274
Area Code
Number
Extension
TELEPHONED
PLEASE CALL
CALLED TO SEE YOU
WILL CALL AGAIN
WANTS TO SEE YOU
URGENT
change Message job 6 times X change careers
RETURNED YOUR CALL
( not an
answer
John Schall $ ast. Dec. 4
employ ment and train 6
are
Jobs Operator
ON
AMPAD
23-021 200 SETS
EFFICIENCY®
23-421 400 SETS
CARBONLESS
Workers change jobs roughty
10 times
1991 ECONOMIC PLEPERT PRES.
p. 115-116
NOTICE
There Should Be No Release
of Material in This Document
Until 10:00 a.m. (E.S.T.)
Tuesday, February 12, 1991
Economic
Report of the
President
Transmitted to the Congress
February 1991
Chart 4-1 Labor Force Shares by Industry
worker families raised the value of people's time. On the supply
U.S. workers have moved out of agriculture, first into manufacturing and then into services.
side, advances in computer technology led to rapid expansion of
Percent
such industries as computer and data-processing services, which
100
alone added 499,000 jobs during the last 10 years.
90
Changing lifestyles and family structure have also led to a rapid
increase in industries providing care to the old and the young. In-
80
dustries providing residential, nursing, and personal care, largely
70
for the elderly, and child day-care facilities added 825,000 net new
jobs from 1982 to 1990.
60
Flexibility and Change in Labor Markets
50
The constant reallocation of resources from shrinking industries
40
to growing industries means that jobs are constantly being created
and lost in the economy. This process of reallocation occurs without
30
necessarily preventing the achievement of full employment.
Indeed, the simultaneous creation and destruction of jobs continues
20
whether the overall economy is in an expansionary period or a re-
10
cession. During the two contractions between January 1980 and
November 1982, for example, total employment fell by 2.1 million
0
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1989
jobs. However, this net decrease consisted of a loss of 2.8 million
manufacturing jobs, partially offset by increased employment out-
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Transportation and Trade
Other Services
side of manufacturing. Even within manufacturing, jobs were both
1 Includes manufacturing, mining, and construction.
created and lost. It is estimated that in an average quarter during
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor.
this period, 6 percent of all manufacturing jobs disappeared, while
5 percent were created.
Simultaneous employment gains and losses can be seen at the
level of individual establishments. A recent study of data from Wis-
most jobs were business services, including advertising and comput-
consin for the period 1977-82 found that each year 45 percent of all
er and data-processing services, and health services (discussed
establishments experienced net employment gains, with an average
below). More than 5 million net new jobs, or 27 percent of the net
net gain of 30 percent; 47 percent experienced net job losses, with
employment gain in the 1980s, were in business or health services.
an average net loss of 21 percent; and the remaining 8 percent
This growth in service-sector employment has absorbed labor re-
maintained stable net employment levels.
sources freed by rising manufacturing productivity, just as the
The dynamic nature of the labor market is also evident in unem-
growth in manufacturing employment absorbed resources released
ployment statistics. In November 1988, for example, the jobless
by rising productivity in agriculture in earlier decades. Manufactur-
rate was 5.3 percent, and 6.5 million workers were unemployed.
ing productivity increased at an average annual rate of 4.5 percent
The following month both of these statistics were essentially un-
from 1982 to 1990. This allowed manufacturing to maintain a
changed. On the surface this lack of change might seem to indicate
roughly constant share of real gross national product (GNP), even
a static labor market. Yet, out of the 6.5 million unemployed in No-
though only about half of the 3 million manufacturing jobs lost be-
vember, 3.0 million had left unemployment by December. About
tween 1980 and 1982 were regained by 1990.
half of them had found jobs; the other half had withdrawn from
Within these broad sectoral movements, many other changes oc-
the labor force. In the same month, roughly 1.5 million previously
curred. During the last 10 years increased demand for convenience
employed workers became unemployed and 1.5 million people en-
was a major force for change. The growth in retail grocery stores
tered or reentered the labor force and began looking for work.
during the decade reflected this trend, as the concept of a "super"
This continual reallocation of workers requires that labor mar-
store with one-stop shopping for groceries, drugs, flowers, hard-
kets be flexible and that workers be mobile. Studies estimate that
ware, and other products took hold. Eating and drinking establish-
the average worker holds more than 10 jobs in a lifetime. Survey
ments enjoyed rapid growth, partially because the increase of two-
data show that every year 10 percent of all workers change occupa-
114
115