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Victory 1992 10/8/92 [OA 8486]
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Victory 1992 10/8/92 [OA 8486]
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Records of the White House Office of Speechwriting (George H. W. Bush Administration)
Speech Backup Chronological Files
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This is not a textual record. This is used as an
administrative marker by the George Bush Presidential
Library Staff.
Record Group/Collection:
George H.W. Bush Presidential Records
Collection/Office of Origin:
Speechwriting, White House Office of
Series:
Speech File Backup Files
Subseries:
Chron File, 1989-1993
OA/ID Number:
13837
Folder ID Number:
13837-009
Folder Title:
Victory 1992 10/8/92 [OA 8486]
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G
26
23
1
6
OCT-08-1992 10:54 FROM
TO
82024566218 P.02
October 8, 1992
MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT
FROM:
STEVE PROVOST
SUBJECT:
NATIONAL VICTORY '92 REMARKS
Tonight, at approximately 9:30 p.m., you will speak to 500
supporters at the Houston Marriott, and another 2,500 at six
other sites around the country. Your remarks (teleprompted/10
minutes) thank your supporters and offer three reasons why we
will win this election: achievements, ideas and trust.
OCT-08-1992 10:54 FROM
TO
82024566218
P.03
Presidential Remarks:
Victory '92 National Fundraiser
Houston, Texas
8 October 1992
Thank you Mr. President -- and thanks to all our friends in
every city.
My special thanks to Bob Mosbacher ------------------------- who did a great job,
and broke the news to me with such diplomacy -- that far more
people wanted to be with "the Silver Fox" up in New York - than
down here with me in Houston., 11
Mrs. Bush's Scheduly
As you can imagine, I'm not much in the habit of quoting
polls these days. But I couldn't help but notice a new poll that
came out just last night.
It wasn't CNN, or ABC, or Gallup or The Wall Street Journal.
It was that little kid's magazine -- Weekly Reader. They polled
over
600,000 kids across America. 39 percent wanted Bill Clinton for
56
President. 55 percent wanted George Bush. 11
Before you think that the pressure of the past few months
has gone to my head, and that I'm seeking solace in 4th graders -
- let me point out something.
Weekly Reader isn't a bad barometer of what happens in
elections. That particular poll hasn't been wrong - since
1956.//
But this is admittedly a weird year, and I don't want to
leave anything to chance. So when the Democrats leave town next
week, I'm asking Bob Dole, Bob Michel and all the other
OCT-08-1992 10:55 FROM
TO
82024566218
P.04
there are 27
2
amendments
this would be 28th.
Republicans to sneak up to Capitol Hill and pass the (37th)
amendment --- lowering the voting age to five-years-old.//
Governor Clinton can go after the MTV vote. We'll tear him
niu
apart on Sesame Street. 11
But seriously -- forget the polls. Forget the pundits.
We're going to win this thing. We're going to lead this nation
for four more years.//
Let me tell you three reason why I'm so confident.
First, our record.
2WORDS!
We've heard alot
of talk this year about what's wrong with
America but lets not lose sight - of the grand victory we have
helped win for all humanity.
I've been preparing for my debate this Sunday. And my
thoughts went back to another debate -- 12 years ago -- between
Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan.
Oct 28, 1980
Remember how President Carter made such a big deal -- of how
his young daughter worried -- had-nightmares, he said -- about
DID NOT SAY THAT
the specter of nuclear war?
Fruden Ryon House
Well, we
fought a policy of peace through strength. And 12
OVER A BILLION
years later, (800 million) people -- in every corner of the globe
-- have enjoyed their first breath of freedom.
Juseph
And tonight -- as American kids pull back the covers and
shut off their talking Barbie Dolls - they think not of nuclear
weapons - but of the sweet dreams of peace.
Does that matter? You bet it does.
OCT-08-1992 10:56 FROM
TO
82024566218
P.05
3
The second reason we will win? Our ideas make sense to
middle-class Americans.
Governor Clinton has done a good job of pummelling me -
quoting statistic after statistic -- tearing down America's
economy.
But our problems are never put in context of the global
slowdown -- and only now -- are people starting to compare our
solutions.
clintons J 9.25.92kg of ct.
Governor Clinton likes to say he is -- quote - "a different
kind of Democrat."
Well, to me there's nothing "different" about $150 billion
in new taxes - more than Michael Dukakis and Walter Mondale
issues
combined.
And there's nothing "different" about making pie in the sky
ON
promises with one hand -- while pulling dollars out of working
people's wallets with the other.
In June, Governor Clinton proposed $220 billion in new
government spending Ctr Cler he called it "investment" -- and he used
the same tone that doctors use when they say 'this shot won't
hurt one bit."
I thought that would satisfy Governor Clinton's appetite -
2 WORDS!!
but it turned out to just an horsd oeuvre.
(June 20)
We did a little calculating -- and since that day in June -
- Governor Clinton has promised at least another $200 billion in
quote
---
investments and those ar just the ones we been abte to put 8 price tag on,
A billion dollars in new promises
concet wpedit per Ed walters Dan Me Grounty
whove been working on these #s w Ciccone.
OCT-08-1992 10:56 FROM
TO
82024566218
P.06
4
every single day. Governor Clinton has earned a new nickname --
"Billion Dollar Bill."
But whose going to pay Bill's -- bill? The middle-class.
THIS
NO,
ISKIND
This week,
The National Association of Business Economists
OF
SEPT.
NARROW.
14
compared
Governor Clinton's "Billion Dollar A Day" spending plan
THEY
WERE
COMPARING
to my pro-growth policies of smaller government and lower
EVERYTHING
taxes.
FROM
X
TAXES
The vast majority said that economic growth would be higher
TO TRADE
RU REGULATION.
NAGE
under the Bush plan. Inflation would be lower, interest rates
VP
would be lower -- and the budget deficit would be smaller.
212
393.
Governor Clinton said this week that history is on "his
why
6800
S pace
would
side"
(but I fear his inexperience is showing. stamp speechese
he put
last couple days
this in 3rd
i can't
From Managua to Moscow history is moving away from taxes person
find thisand regulation and central control.
if he is
Do you
History is casting aside the government planner who spends
Falking?
have
the wealth of nations -- and lifting up the men and women who
any
create it.
idea
where
No Governor Clinton, history is on our side -- and that's
26
it
why we will make history in as days. 11
came
from
?
One final reason we will win -- in a word -- "trust."
I have had the privilege of leading this nation through
challenging times -- both around the world, and here at home.
I have made some mistakes and I have admitted them. But
I believe I have been a good leader. 11
OCT-08-1992 10:57 FROM
TO
82024566218
P.07
5
I have made the tough decisions -- and I have tried to
fulfill my obligation -- with the dignity, intelligence and
respect that is worthy of this office you have entrusted me.
The world is still a dangerous place and there are still
difficult decisions to be made. I think the American people
understand this in their hearts -- they respect my experience and
X
&
my ability to make a tough decision -- and they will reward that
X on November X 3rd.// conect per Jennifer Thossman,
It has been said that a friend is someone who knows
everything there is to know about you - and likes you anyway.
Tonight I would add that the definition of a friend is
someone who stands by your side while you're behind, SO that you
can pull ahead. Barbara and I are blessed with thousands of
friends -- and you have touched our souls tonight.
As we say thanks, I remind you that our struggle is to more
than win an election.
Our struggle is to renew America -- so that we can match the
peace we have achieved in the world, with peace of mind here at
home. Tonight, you have given me the strength, the passion, the
inner confidence -- to take our ideas to the American people for
25 more days. You are sending me into St. Louis - with a full
head of steam.
Thank you all for your support. God bless the United States
of America.
THE WHITE HOUSE
Office of the Press Secretary
For Immediate Release
October 8, 1992
REMARKS BY THE PRESIDENT
AT VICTORY '92 DINNER
J.W. Marriott Hotel
Houston, Texas
9:08 P.M. CDT
THE PRESIDENT: Thank you all very much. (Applause.)
Thank you.
AUDIENCE: Four more years! Four more years! Four more
years! Four more years!
THE PRESIDENT: Thank you, President Reagan. Thank you,
my friend, and thank you for all that you taught me in those eight
years when I was privileged to serve at your side.
Let me also give my thanks to Barbara, working so hard
up in New York tonight, but all across this country. To President
Gerald Ford, for whom I have unlimited respect. For my running mate
and my partner, Vice President Dan Quayle, out there in St. Louis,
and Marilyn. And to Bob Dole and Bob Michel, I couldn't ask for two
finer, more principled leaders in the two houses of Congress. And I
just wish we had control of both houses to move this country forward
even faster. (Applause.)
And I was touched by what my friend Arnold
Schwarzenegger said -- and he is a friend, and I value that
friendship. And to all of you and the good friends watching in over
100 cities and in 30 states, you have touched my heart this evening.
Let me also add my special thanks to Ted Welch, who ran
this whole effort. To Bob Mosbacher, to Rob Mosbacher, next to me
here, to all our finance chairs. And, of course, a great party
Chairman, Rich Bond, the Chairman of the Republican National
Committee. (Applause.)
And this evening is for our entire ticket, from top to
bottom, the proud Republican team. And as you can imagine, I'm not
in the habit much lately of quoting polls. (Laughter.) But Rob
reminded me of something; I couldn't help but notice that new poll
that came out just last night. It wasn't CNN or ABC or Gallup or The
Wall Street Journal; it was that little kids' magazine, Weekly
Reader. And they polled over 600, 000 kids across America -- 39
percent wanted Bill Clinton for President and 56 percent wanted
George Bush. (Applause.)
And before you think that the pressure of the past few
months has gone to my head and that I'm seeking solace in fourth
graders -- (laughter) -- let me point out something. Weekly Reader
is not a bad thermometer of what happens in elections. That
particular poll hasn't been wrong since 1956. (Applause.) But this
is admittedly a weird year, the strangest year I can ever remember in
politics. And I don't want to leave anything to chance.
So when the Democrats leave Washington next week, or in
the few days, I'm asking Bob Dole, Bob Michel and all the other
MORE
- 2 -
Republicans to sneak up to Capitol Hill and pass the 28th Amendment,
lowering the voting age to five-year-olds. (Applause.)
Let Governor Clinton take his saxophone and go after the
MTV vote -- (laughter) -- we'll tear him apart on Sesame Street.
(Applause.)
But, seriously, forget the polls. Forget the pundits.
We are going to win this election. (Applause.) And we're going to
lead this nation for four more years.
And let me tell you three reasons why I remain so
confident. The first is our record. We've heard a lot of talk this
year about what's wrong with America. But let's not loose sight of
the grand victory that we have helped win for all humanity.
And as I study for the debate this Sunday, my thoughts
went back to another debate 12 years ago. I believe it was in
Cleveland with President Reagan between Jimmy Carter and then-
challenger Ronald Reagan. And in his closing statement, President
Carter, speaking from the heart, talked about how he'd had a
conversation with his daughter, Amy, in which she said that the
control of nuclear weapons was the greatest problem facing mankind.
Some laughed, I didn't; and nor did President Reagan.
Well, President Carter and many well-meaning people
advocated at that point a nuclear freeze. Remember the freeze
movement? But President Reagan and I fought for a policy of peace
through strength. And 12 years later, over a billion people in every
corner of the globe have taken their first breath of freedom.
(Applause.)
And tonight, as millions of American
kids pull back the
covers and shut off their talking Barbie dolls --
(laughter) -- they
think not of nuclear weapons, but of the sweet and satisfying dreams
of peace. And does that matter? You bet it does. (Applause.)
The second reason we'll win is because our ideas make
sense to middle class Americans.
Governor Clinton likes to quote statistic after
statistic, all kind of tearing down America, pointing out how bad
everything is. But our problems are never put in the context of a
global slowdown. And only now, only in the past few days, have
people really started to compare our solutions.
Governor Clinton likes to say that he's, "a different
kind of Democrat." Well, to me there's nothing different about $150
billion in new taxes, more than Michael Dukakis and Walter Mondale
combined. And there's nothing different about making pie-in-the-sky
promises with one hand while pulling dollars out of working people's
wallets with the other.
And in June, Governor Clinton proposed $220 billion in
new government spending. And he called it "investment." And he used
that same tone that doctors use when they say, this shot won't hurt
you one bit. (Laughter.)
And I thought that would satisfy Governor Clinton's
appetite, but it turned out to be just an hors d'oeuvre. We did a
little calculating. And since that day in June, Governor Clinton has
promised at least another $200 billion "in investments." And those
are just the ones we've been able to put a price tag on -- a billion
dollars in new promises every single day. And so Governor Clinton
has earned a new nickname -- Billion Dollar Bill.
(Laughter and
applause.) But who is going to pay Bill's bills?
The same people
who always pay the middle class. They're going to do it.
MORE
- 3 -
A couple of weeks ago, the National Association of
Business Economists compared Governor Clinton's billion-dollar-a-day
spending plan with my pro-growth policies of smaller government and
lower taxes. And the vast majority said that under our plan, under
my plan, inflation would be lower, interest rates would be lower, and
the budget deficit would be smaller.
And Governor Clinton said this week that his side is,
"on the right side of history." But I fear his inexperience is
showing. From Managua to Moscow, history is moving away from taxes
and regulation and central control. (Applause.)
History is casting aside the government planner, who
spends the wealth of nations, and lifting up the men and women who
create it. No, Governor Clinton, history is on our side. And that's
why we will make history in 25 days. (Applause.)
And I believe the third reason -- I really believe this
one -- one reason we will win, in a word, is trust. We've spent most
of the time in this campaign talking about economic and domestic
policy, as well we should; because those are the most important
problems facing us today. We should remember, however, that when we
elect a President of the United States, we're electing someone who at
any time may have to deal with the awesome decision of sending
someone else's young son or daughter, America's men and women, into
battle.
And I had to make that decision in 1989, and then again
in Desert Storm. And the President we entrust with these decisions
must have character, honesty and integrity. And last night on the
Larry King Show, I was asked about some issues in my opponent's
background. And let me repeat the point I made, because I feel so
strongly about it: My opponent has written that he once mobilized
demonstrations in London against the Vietnam War. And I simply for
the life of me cannot understand how someone can go to London,
another country, and mobilize demonstrations against the United
States of America when our kids are dying halfway around the world.
(Applause.)
The issue here isn't patriotism. You can demonstrate
all you want here at home. Barbara and I look out, as Ron and Nancy
did, out of the White House. And there's somebody out there every
single day, properly protesting or raising objections under --
exercising their rights. That's part of America. But I can't
understand someone mobilizing demonstrations in a foreign country
when poor kids, drafted out of the ghettos, are dying in a faraway
land.
You can call me old-fashioned, but that just does not
make sense to me. (Applause.)
I think the American people respect experience and
character and proven ability to make a tough decision. And I hope
that means that they will vote for me on November 3rd. (Applause.)
It has been said that a friend is someone who knows
everything there is to know about you and likes you anyway.
(Laughter.) And, tonight, I would add that the definition of a
friend is someone who stands by your side while you're behind, and so
that you can pull ahead.
Barbara and I are blessed with thousands of friends.
And you have touched our hearts tonight. And as we say a hearty
thanks to all of you, I remind you that our struggle is to more than
win an election; our struggle is to renew America so that we can
match the peace we have achieved in the world with that peace of mind
here at home.
MORE
- 4 -
And, tonight, you have given me the strength and the
passion and the inner confidence to take our ideas to the American
people for 25 more days. And you're sending me into St. Louis for
that debate with a full head of steam. (Applause.)
And thank you for your support. And God bless the
United States of America. Thank you all very, very much.
(Applause.)
END
9:22 P.M. CDT
TIONAL THURSDAY, OCTOBER 8, 1992
A33
"They have tremendous power if they only use it." JEANNE CHINARD
ocrat
Poll, on a Streak, Picks Bush
ing to be perfect," she said. "We're not
point
going to apologize for it."
aign
Mr. Bush got 337,079 votes, or 55.56
cent
percent, while Mr. Clinton trailed with
sub-
t in
MIDDLETOWN, Conn., (AP) Oct. 7
those in kindergarten through fourth
237,441, or 39.14 percent.
less
- Forget the polls showing Gov. Bill
grade, said the publication's editor in
Ross Perot was out of the race when
Mr.
chief, Sandra Maccarone.
the poll was issued, but the "other"
Clinton ahead in the race for the White
The results came as something of a
category drew votes from 32,176 stu-
House. A student newspaper that has
surprise, given that three other
dents or 5.3 percent.
Clin-
picked the winner in every Presidential
0 27
election since 1956 weighed in today
"adult" polls released today showed
Au-
with good news for President Bush.
the Democratic challenger with dou-
ters'
Mr. Bush was the choice of 55 per-
ble-digit leads.
More national news,
also
cent of the more than 600,000 students
But Ms. Maccarone stood by the 64-
at in
surveyed in the Weekly Reader, draw-
year-old weekly's perfect record.
pages B22 to B26.
ing especially heavy support among
"We're going to assume it's still go-
b
Sale
PAGE A6 / THURSDAY, OCTOBER 8, 1992
The Washington Times
Smooth talker
INSIDE THE
Industrialist J. Peter Grace is a
55.569.
through high school, gave Mr. Bush
56 percent of the vote and 46 states.
Bill Clinton got 39 percent and four
Hig
man obsessed by rhyme.
states.
He referred to New York Gov.
BELTWAY
Other candidates received 5 per-
Mario Cuomo as "Cuomo the homo"
cent of the votes. But in analyzing
and New York Mayor David Din-
the data, Weekly Reader sees an
kins as "Dinkins the pinkins," the
extension of a pattern that has oc-
con
latter term, apparently, a bit of
curred before.
word play on the political use of
said: "He and his friends have been
Pupils in kindergarten through
"pink" as in, say, pinko academics.
stuffing the minority for so long
fourth grade (63 percent of all
The chairman of the chemicals
that when they encounter someone
those voting), gave their vote to Mr.
giant W.R. Grace & Co. made these
using the rules they have set, they
Bush. Pupils in fifth grade through
is
remarks while praising Wisconsin
become vituperative.
It's not a
high school (37 percent of the vot-
Gov. Tommy G. Thompson, a Re-
pleasant sight."
ers) gave their vote to Mr. Clinton.
publican, at the opening of the cor-
In previous polls, pupils in kin-
dergarten through third grade
By Nancy
poration's Ambrosia Chocolate Co.
THE WASHINGT
factory in Milwaukee.
He lives
voted for the incumbent, but never
Mr. Dinkins said he could live
before has the difference in the
A Texas
He is famous for never being at
with Mr. Grace's "pinkins" com-
vote between elementary- and
the Suprene
the scene of an accident - any
ment but "I'm greatly offended by
upper-grade students been as
er he is entre
accident. So this elusive figure has
his comments about the governor.
great.
tion to fed
tantalized the news-gathering
It's sad. Obviously [Mr. Grace]
dence sugge
trades for weeks as he remained
has a problem, a serious problem."
Eleven yes
unseen behind the most secure
Mr. Grace, the head of President
Hold everything
Leonel T. He
doors in the nation.
Reagan's Private Sector Survey on
Deborah Orin, Washington bu-
that he
But, lo, there was the absent ad-
Cost Control, had already moved to
reau chief for the New York Post,
will clear he
viser yesterday, sitting right next to
make it less of a problem. He got
President Bush in San Antonio as
got the relevant details in the first
murdering
out of town ahead of his poetry.
he and the leaders of Canada
paragraph of her report on Wash-
police office
Last year he moved Grace's cor-
and Mexico initialed the North
ington's most recent filibuster
Some
stated the
porate headquarters from New
American Free Trade Agreement.
Tuesday:
as "wheth"
York City to Boca Raton, Fla.
James A. Baker III.
"Sen. Alfonse D'Amato sang
'South of the Border,' sipped tea
a violation
Still, many looked, shook their
and popped throat lozenges but
Constitute
The short goodbye
The House's parting memory of Bill
heads and remained unconvinced.
Dannemeyer is likely to endure.
never once went to the bathroom
execute
In fact, the joke at Bush-Quayle re-
The closing moments of this
election headquarters goes some-
as he tied up the Senate for 15
one who
year's House session showed our
hours in a futile filibuster to save
cent."
thing like: "Poor Jim Baker? In an-
lawmakers in a state of nature.
Justis
other couple months his face will
upstate jobs."
Wow, savagery.
Mr. Obey said he was annoyed
took
be on a milk carton."
Shortly after noon Tuesday,
that Mr. Dannemeyer, who is leav-
struction
ing Congress after an unsuccessful
But eureka! There in Texas, a
House Speaker Thomas Foley an-
Senate bid this year, had killed the
New York Times reporter an-
Political theory
"This"
nounced that Democrats were
Justice
chance for lawmakers to say public
nounced to his colleagues that
seeking consent to pass one more
P.J. O'Rourke, as he so often
embers
goodbyes on the House floor.
someone was actually seen
bill, then open the floor so mem-
does, has evolved a political theory
"Ther
bers could give speeches of fare-
This ire stemmed from an ear-
touching Mr. Baker, "so he wasn't a
that smacks of the most original
cence.
lier comment Mr. Dannemeyer
hologram."
well to departing colleagues.
thinking on the subject since Plato
Mr.
But departing Rep. William Dan-
made privately to colleagues. "He
reported on the shadows on the
der
nemeyer apparently thought he'd
said, 'Look, I hate this place, I hate
Bush in a walk
wall of the cave.
must
rather have an aspirin. He de-
each and every one of you, and I
Mr. O'Rourke compared the Re-
Sta.
manded an adjournment
only have an hour and a half left
President Bush will be re-elected
publican and Democratic parties to
Herry
vote, which takes precedence over
here,' Mr. Obey recounted.
president if the nation's schoolchil-
gigantic Mexican pinatas:
State
other business. The Democrats
"It's childishness like that all
dren are right - and they haven't
"The American voter is then
be
yielded and school was out.
year long that has made this place
been wrong in 36 years.
blindfolded and given a stick," he
trial
Angered, Rep. David Obey, Wis-
a combat zone instead of a place of
The Weekly Reader National
said. "Then the voter swings the
consin Democrat, confronted Mr.
thought
He was using his
Presidential Election Poll, involving
stick wildly in every direction, try-
Dannemeyer. "Above all others, you
venom to muck up the House, and
606,696 children in 23,000 class-
ing to hit a presidential candidate
have absolutely no redeeming so-
he didn't care," Mr. Obey told the
rooms across America, was held in
on the head and knock some
cial value." he told the California
Associated Press.
late September.
into him."
Republican.
Of Mr. Obey, Mr. Dannemeyer
The children, in kindergarten
OCT 08 '92 12:38 FREEDOM HOUSE 212 477 4126
P.2
The Comparative Survey of
Freedom 1991-1992:
Between Two Worlds
R. Bruce McColm
The twentieth century is dramatically
and the dramatic transformation of the
closing on one grand historical epoch
former Soviet Union, recorded the freest
that began with the Russian Revolution
year in its 21-year history. It was the
and the signing of the Treaty of
first year in which both the number of
Versailles, and ended with the breach in
Free countries and their populations
the Berlin Wall and eventual implosion
outhumbered the Not Free countries and
of the Soviet Union. The last three-
their populations. This year India, the
quarters of a century have been defined
world's most populous democracy, fell to
by a bitter clash of ideologies, two
Partly Free for the first time since martial
World Wars, the Holocaust, the Gulag,
law was declared in 1975, thereby
the Chinese Cultural Revolution, and
significantly altering the population
their reproduction in many smaller
figures. Even with such a significant loss,
conflicts throughout the developing
the number of Free societies continued to
world. This old epoch remains the
rise to an all-time high of 76. More
bloodiest era in human history and may
remarkably still, the Survey found that
well be viewed in the funure as an
there were 91 democracies and another
1992
aberrant period. Yet remarkably, the
35 countries in some form of democratic
VS.
liberal democratic idea, which faced three
transition-a staggering 126 out of the
waves of reverses in the 1920s, 1940s
183 nations evaluated-compared to
1980
and 1970s, triumphed over the challenge
forty-four democracies in 1972 and 56 in
posed by fascism in the first part of this
1980.
era and over communism and its
The sweep and depth of this global
derivatives in the second.
transformation are stunning when
The past three years have seen the
compared to the different periods of
greatest expansion of freedom in history.
democraric development. Harvard
Over one-third of the nations on earth,
professor Sam Huntington has identi-
encompassing nearly 30 percent of the
fied three "long waves" of democracy.
earth's population, have consciously
The first began in the early nineteenth
decided to radically alter their political
century with the extension of the right
systems for more open and democratic
to vote in the United States and
forms of government. The twenty-first
continued until the 1920s. During this
century will again challenge liberal
period, some 29 democracies came into
democracy with questions conceming its
being. With the accession to power of
ability to produce prosperity and a just
Benito Mussolini in Italy in 1922, the
social system.
first reversal began, lasting until 1942,
when the number of the world's
democracies had been reduced to
Free societies-an all-time high
twelve.
Last year's Survey, reflecting the
The triumph of the Allied Forces
triumphal revolutions in Central Europe
in World War II triggered a second
OCT 08 '92 12:38 FREEDOM HOUSE 212 477 4126
P.3
Between Two Worlds 51
year's upward trend of 36. Declines
Free category and a decline of 8 in the
were registered by another 17. Twenty-
Not Free category since January 1991.
four nations improved their category
ranking and only six reversed their
ranking. More impressive is the fact that
A significant three-year trend
nearly 15 billion people or roughly 28
This year's findings continue a three-year
percent of the world's population came
trend of a significant reduction in the
to live in societies where there has been
number and percentage of the world living
a conscious attempt to replace their
in Not Free societies. Since our January
political systems with a more
1990 findings, 15 additional countries have
democratic alternative over the last three
gained a Free status, 18 additional are in
years.
Partly Free, and there has been a reduction
Of the 183 nations evaluated by the
of 17 societies in the Not Free category.
Survey, 91 have democratic systems, 15
For the sake of comparison, fifteen years
of which are considered in the Partly
ago, 43.9 percent of the world lived in Not
Free category; another 35 governments
Free societies, which is 12.1 percent more
are in varying degrees of a transition to
than in 1992. The world population has
a more open and pluralistic system.
increased by 1.36 billion people since
Once major political competitors to
1977, while people living in Not Free
liberal democracy, Communist states
societies have actually declined in real
have been reduced to six, and traditional
terms by 56.4 million. On the other hand
monarchies to twelve; military regimes
the population of Free societies has
number eighteen. Of all the nations
increased by 570 million from fifteen years
Freedom House tracks, 38 remain one-
ago, and Partly Free societies have
or dominant-party political systems. The
increased by 847.9 million over this same
liberal democratic idea has triumphed as
period, a net combined gain of 1.418
the preferred model for political develop-
billion people.
ment. It is sobering to note that in 57
According to the Survey, out of a
of the 126 countries that are either
world population of 5.37 billion people,
democratic or in transition to democracy,
1.36 billion, (25 percent) live in countries
military, para-military and security forces
categorized as Free, 2.31 billion, (43
play a significant political role. Any shift
percent) in Partly Free, and 1.71 billion,
in the military's allegiance to the
(32 percent) in Not Free societies.
democratic process could jeopardize this
However, a world without India and
global trend.
China, which account for a combined 2
The desire for freedom may be an
billion people, would show 1.36 billion,
inherent hurnan characteristic but the
or 40 percent of the earth's population,
habits and behavior of democracy must
living in Free societies, 1.51 billion, or
be learned over time. The Freedom
44 percent, in Partly Free societies and
House Comparative Survey, which
560 million people, or 16 percent, in Not
monitors political rights and civil liberties
Free societies.
in 183 nations and 62 related territories,
This significant reduction in Not Free
this year classified 76 nations and 48
societies over the last several years
territories as Free, 65 nations and 4 terri-
should encourage increased efforts to
tories as Partly Free and 42 nations and
bring pressure on those societies that
10 territories as Not Free. The findings
remain closed. Peace negotiations
represent a gain of 11 countries in the
marginally improved the human rights
OCT 08 '92 12:39 FREEDOM HOUSE 212 477 4126
P.4
The Survey 1992-
The Year in Review
The difficulties in evaluating the stare of
Lithumia and the twelve former republics
freedom around the world have been
of the Soviet Union. For the first time,
inherent in the Survey project since its
Freedom in the World provides an
inception 21 years ago. This has been
account and the rating of political rights
especially true over the past three
years as the rare of political
change around the world has
31 Countries that changed categories
accelerated in an unprecedented
Country
1991
1992
manner.
Albania
Not Free
Partly Free
For example, in 1989, an
Angola
Not Free
Partly Free
unusually volatile period compared
Antigua and Barbuda
Free
Partly Free
to past Surveys, 27 countries
Bangladesh
Partly Free
Free
changed their ratings. The
Benin
Partly Free
Free
following year 56 nations, or over
Bulgaria
Partly Free
Free
one-third of the world, changed
Cape Verde
Partly Free
Free
Central African
Not Free
Partly Free
because of real political events
Republic
rather than from any methodologi-
Congo
Not Free
Partly Free
cal reconsiderations. Again in
Estonia*
Free
1991, the world experienced
Ethiopia
Not Free
Partly Free
radical political movement as 58
Georgia
Not Free
Guinea-Bissau
Not Free
countries changed in their ratings.
Partly Free
Haiti
Partly free
Not Free
41 countries improved their human
India
Free
Partly Free
rights situations, comparable to 36
Latvia*
Free
the year before, while declines
Lebanon
Not Free
Partly Free
were registered by 17, compared
Lesotho
Not Free
Partly Free
to 20 the year before. 1991 saw
Lithuania*
Free
Mali
Not Free
31 countries change their category
Partly Free
Mongolia
Partly Free
Free
ratings, compared to 17 the year
Mozambique
Not Free
Partiy Free
before, moving between the
Nepal
Partly Free
Free
categories "Free," "Partly Free"
Niger
Not Free
Partly Free
and "Not Free." Of these 24
Romania
Not Free
Partly Free
nations improved categories, while
Sao Tome and
Partly Free
Free
7 lost ground.
Principe
Slovenia
Free
The Survey itself has expanded
Thailand
Free
Partly Free
this year. The dissolution of the
Uganda
Partly Free
Not Free
Soviet Union and the creation of
Yugoslavia
Partly Free
Not Free
the Commonwealth of Independent
Zambia
Partly Free
Free
States have generated fifteen new
national entities-the three Baltic
* Formerly under control of the Soviet Union;
countries of Estonia, Latvia and
new to the Survey.
OCT 08 '92 12:37 FREEDOM HOUSE 212 477 4126
P.1
Freedom House
FAX: (212) 514-8040
120 Wall Street
TEL: (212) 514-8050
Floor 26
New York, NY 10005
Facsimile Cover Sheet
Date:
Sent:
Time:
TO:
JENNIFER GROSSMAN
COMPANY: WHITE HOUSE
FAX: 202-456-6218
JOE RVAN
FROM:
Number of PAGES:
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COMMENTS: THESE ARE SE LECTED FROM THE
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We have a good chane,
be carse histy
we are
on The right side of history.
SENT BY:Xerox Telecopier 7021 :10- 8-92 ; 4:13PM ;
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Republican
National
Committee
FACSIMILE TRANSMISSION
DATE:
10/8/92
TO:
Jennifer
FAX NUMBER: 456-6218
FROM: Eric
NUMBER OF PAGES INCLUDING COVER SHEET: 3
IF ALL PAGES ARE NOT RECEIVED, PLEASE CALL (202) 863-8666
The First page is the citation
and the second page
has the quote
Dwight D. Eisenhower Republican Center 310 First Street Southeast Washington, D.C. 20003 (202)863-8500
FAX: (202) 863-8820
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CNN "LARRY KING LIVE"
INTERVIEW WITH: GOVERNOR BILL CLINTON, D-AR
AND SENATOR ALBERT GORE, D-TN
MONDAY, OCTOBER 5, 1992
The following is a transcript of CNN's "Larry King Live." This
program is copyrighted by Cable New Network. The program material
is the property of Cable News Network, and it is, therefore,
MANDATORY that any excerpts and quotes taken from this program or
any references made to this program's content include attribution to
CNN and the above program title.
MR. LARRY KING: Great pleasure to have both candidates with
us. Al Gore is just back from Washington, where he voted to
override the President's veto of the cable bill. Right?
SENATOR ALBERT GORE: That's correct. The House will vote --
MR. KING: What was the vote?
SEN. GORE: -- shortly. The Senate voted 74-25. If the House
follows suit, then this will be the first time in four years that a
veto by President Bush has been overridden. It's kind of a -- a
sign. It's a bell weather. It's an indication of the winds of
change that are blowing across the country and when President Bush
sided with the cable monopolies, the majority in the House and
Senate sided with the people of this country. No business should
have neither competition nor regulation nor accountability.
MR. KING: Do you expect the House to override?
SEN. GORE: I certainly hope so. I'll knock on wood. I think
it's likely to --
MR. KING: We'll know any minute and I'll pass it along (to
you?).
SEN. GORE: We'll know - - we'll know soon. I certainly hope
so because the people out there watching have been getting ripped
SENT BY:Xerox Telecopier 7021 :10- 8-92 4:14PM ;
201-
2024566218:# 3
"How many Republicans here are for Clinton-Gore? Wave your arms."
And there's just a sea of arms. "How many former Perot supporters?"
"How many independents?" "How many Democrats?" America is coming
together around the proposition that we have got to have change. We
cannot continue what we've had, because it's not working. And the
real choice is whether or not we have the courage to see change and
a new direction, a new generation of ideas to get the country moving
again, or whether we stick with the same old approach that hasn't
worked. And I think there's a strong majority building in favor of
change.
MR. KING: So you think you're going to win?
SEN. GORE: Well, I think that we've got 30 days of real hard
work to do, if it continues going the way it is. And it's up to the
American people, but if it continues going with them the way it is,
then I think so.
MR. KING: Are you going to win?
GOV. CLINTON: We have a good chance, because history -- we
are on the right side of history.
MR. KING: Are you ahead?
GOV. CLINTON: I think we're ahead now. But the most
important thing is we are speaking to the real problems and the real
promise of this country, the real concerns of ordinary Americans.
And we are on the right side of history. We are trying to change
this country in ways that will help us to open up opportunity in
this era.
MR. KING: Do you think in these last 30 days it will on --
this could be on all three sides - this is going to get dirty or
cleaner? Are we going to have issues become prevalent, or non-
issues become prevalent?
SEN. GORE: Oh, I think Bush is already throwing everything,
including the kitchen sink, into this. This advertisement that's so
misleading is just one example.
MR. KING: Do you expect an October surprise?
GOV. CLINTON: I wouldn't be surprised by anything. He said
when he started this camaign he would do whatever he had to do to
Introduction
Once every four years the current vice-president of the National Association of
Business Economists has the interesting opportunity to comment on the association
members' views in a period in which there is strong and important public interest in
economic policy and the impact of that policy on their individual prospects and current
environment. The nation's voters will be making a choice of presidential and
congressional leaders in a few weeks. This year there is an especially strong interest in
economic policy since many consumers, business leaders and workers are especially
worried about the current economic situation.
This review is designed to blend the results from both the economic outlook
survey and the policy survey. It will begin with a brief view of the current economic
outlook of NABE members, followed by a review of the results of the policy analysis,
and concluding with more details from the economic outlook survey.
Four years ago NABE's members, by a margin of 53 to 37 percent, expected
George Bush to be elected the next president. This year the members give Governor
Clinton a lead of 2 to 1, with 66.7 percent expecting Clinton to win. In 1988. 61
percent of NABE's policy panel said George Bush's economic policy proposals "would
be better for maintaining stable growth and moderate inflation in the years ahead."
This year a surprising 59.5 percent hold the same view, although they don't expect a
Bush victory.
In this report we describe NABE policy recommendations and the macro
forecasting panel's outlook of the balance of 1992 and for 1993. Nearly three hundred
members of the National Association of Business Economists participated in the August
1992 macro economic and policy surveys. As explained later, the macro forecast calls
for 1992 growth in Gross Domestic Product to be 1.8 percent and for 1993 growth of
2.7 percent growth is expected. Inflation for 1992 will be 3.1 percent and for 1993 it will
rise slightly to 3.4 percent according to the macro panel.
The policy panel's views are of special interest since they comment on both the
political feasibility and the economic merit of many of the spending reductions and
revenue increasing proposals that are now becoming the center of the election debate.
When asked which indicators were the best single measure of the current thrust
of monetary policy, the responses were:
The Fed Funds Rate Level
47.2%
Recent Real Money Growth Rates
21.9%
Recent Nominal Money Growth Rates
14.6%
Recent Total Reserves Growth Rate
6.0%
The Borrowed Reserves Level
4.7%
At the present time the key issue affecting monetary policy is, "The pace of
economic growth," according to 65% of the participants. Other key issues cited were
unemployment (18.6%), inflation and inflationary expectations (10.2%), the value of the
dollar (2.1%) and other (3.7%). Further, 72.6% said that for the second half of 1992
the top priority of the Federal Reserve should be recovery. Another 23.9% said the top
priority of the FRB should be to "reduce long-term inflation".
Fiscal Policy
In July 1992, the Administration released its Mid-Session Review of the Budget.
This review included the deficit and spending growth estimates in Table 2 below. This
was the starting point for the discussion of fiscal policy.
Table 2 -- Deficit and Spending Growth Estimates
Fiscal Years - Billions of Dollars
1991
1992
1993
Unified Deficit
$269.5
$333.5
$341.0
Deposit Insurance
6.7
11.0
59.4
Desert Storm
-43.2
-5.0
0.0
Deficit, less Deposit
insurance and
Desert Storm
$246.0
$327.5
$281.6
Fed. Spending Growth
5.8%
6.3%
6.9%
ex RTC
11.0%
3.5%
The NABE policy panel believes that this fiscal policy is too stimulative (44.7%),
too restrictive (24.7%) or about right (30.6%). This is consistent with the views that
they would prefer it to be more restrictive in the next six months (43.2%) or unchanged
(31.6%). Only 25.2 % favored a more stimulative policy; the same as the group that
views current policy as too restrictive. Only 6.4% expect fiscal policy to actually
become more restrictive. About one-third of the panel said that a stimulative fiscal
package should be proposed in 1993, with nearly two-thirds suggesting a package that
would add less than $50 billion to the federal deficit. At the same time, 63.1% opposed
reducing the social security tax to pay for the package of fiscal stimulus. Likewise, over
80% opposed reduction of the unemployment insurance tax to offset the additional
fiscal spending.
the respondents, with 9 out of 10 in the approval category indicating that the change
should be permanent. At the same time, two thirds of the panel opposed lower tax
reductions for families with $20,000 to $50,000 of income.
Fiscal Spending Reductions
Another approach to dealing with the federal deficit is to cut spending. The
panel was asked to rank the political feasibility and the economic merit of reducing
spending in a number of categories. We will begin by looking at the responses for
reduced spending on the Strategic Defense Initiative. Responses (on a scale of 5 to 1
from highest to lowest feasibility or merit) were:
Table 3 -- Reduce Spending on the Strategic Defense Initiative
Highest (5)
(4)
(3)
(2)
(1) Lowest
Political
25.9%
44.0%
3.7%
5.2%
1.3%
Economic
40.2
22.6
24.8
6.4
6.0
Thus, nearly 70% of the panel thought that the political opposition to reduced
spending on the Strategic Defense Initiative (STI) could be overcome, and a significant
group of over 40% ranked the proposal high on economic merit. Reductions in the
Strategic Defense Initiative thus offers a tempting political and economic target.
In the views of the NABE Policy Panel it is both politically feasible to achieve
cuts in the STI and it is a proposal that does not have high economic costs other than
the impact of the spending cutbacks for defense contractors. However, this fortunate
merging of political and economic elements does not exist for many aspects; of cutting
federal spending. This is the heart of the dilemma for policy makers that has been
evident since the reform of the budget act in 1974 and the rebellion in Congress which
reduced the power of committee chairmen. The so-called Iron Triangle of the
bureaucracy running programs, congressmen with oversight interests, and the
segments of society affected by government programs has made control of government
spending virtually impossible.
As an example of the tough political and economic choices that should and
must be made to correct the fiscal crisis, the panel was offered several other topics for
ranking on the scale of political feasibility and economic merit.
Table 4 --Selected Areas for Spending Reductions
Highest (5)
(4)
(3)
(2)
(1) Lowest
Weapons
-Political
23.8
39.8
26.0
8.2
2.2
-Economic
37.6
30.3
22.2
6.4
3.4
Main & Parts
-Political
14.4
29.7
38.4
9.2
8.3
-Economic
9.1
10.3
30.6
23.7
26.3
Defense LF
-Political
15.2
28.3
34.8
17.8
3.9
-Economic
27.0
31.3
24.9
12.9
3.9
R&D
-Political
12.6
34.8
34.3
14.3
3.9
-Economic
10.8
15.1
25.0
23.3
25.9
Entitlements
-Political
2.2
6.9
8.7
36.8
45.5
-Economic
51.1
19.1
15.7
6.4
7.7
Medicare
-Political
1.3
3.9
9.5
29.9
55.4
-Economic
26.4
30.3
22.9
12.1
8.2
Agriculture
-Political
3.0
8.3
21.7
40.0
27.0
-Economic
60.3
20.3
11.6
5.2
2.6
Civilian
-Political
4.8
11.3
27.0
29.1
27.8
-Economic
31.9
19.4
19.8
15.9
12.9
Federal LF
-Political
6.9
16.5
31.2
24.7
20.8
-Economic
37.3
25.8
21.9
9.0
6.0
This table shows a high correlation. Actions with high economic merit generally
have been ranked as an area with low political feasibility. Only the area of reduced
spending on weapons systems has a measure of related support, but even here the
economic merit at the highest level is nearly 50% higher than the highest political
feasibility. Also in the military area it is interesting that the panel does not see much
economic merit to reduced military spending on maintenance and parts, and the panel
sees political resistance to cutting the size of the military labor force. Military R&D has
a high level of support from the panel as an area of expenditure with positive impact on
the economy and hence low economic merit to cutting R&D expenditures.
The panel sees very high economic benefit to cutting spending on entitlements
and agriculture, but the political feasibility of such cuts is rated as very low. The panel
also favors cuts in Medicare, civilian federal departments, and even the federal labor
force; but here also, they see strong political support for such functions making the
political feasibility of such cuts very unlikely.
A weighted index can be calculated by multiplying the percent in a category by
the scale (1 to 5). The result is in indicator of the gap between political feasibility and
economic merit. The expenditure results are summarized on this basis in Chart 1.
Chart 1 -- Weighted index summary of Expenditure Reduction Proposals
Expenditure Index
Mah & Parts
R&D
Weapons
Defense LF
Civilian
Eco
Pol
Federal LF
Medicare
Agriculture
Entillements
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Tax and Revenue Proposals
If there is to be a serious effort to reduce the federal budget deficit, spending
reductions must be accompanied with proposals to income revenue. The government
can close the budget gap by increasing taxes or by seeking other forms of revenue.
Therefore, the NABE Policy Panel was also asked to rate the political feasibility of
several tax and revenue proposals that have been in the public debate in recent
months. The same scale is used for these proposals. Responses concerning political
feasibility and economic merit (on a scale of 5 to 1 from highest to lowest feasibility or
merit) were requested for the several proposals.
The tax and revenue proposals submitted to the NABE Policy Panel were the
following:
Place a surcharge of several percentage points on personal income taxes
(Inc. Tax Surcharge)
Raise the top income tax bracket from 28% to 33% (33% Tax)
Raise gasoline taxes by $0.20 to $0.30 per gallon (Gas Tax)
Impose a tax on all consumer energy products and services (Energy Tax)
Add an oil import fee (Oil Import Tax)
Raise other excise taxes, such as those on cigarettes and alcohol (Excise
Tax)
Raise marginal tax rates for corporations (Corp. Tax)
Further limit the deduction for mortgage interest (Mort. Cap.)
Restrict deduction of state and local taxes (Reduce State Ded.)
Increase taxation of Social Security benefits (Tax Soc. Sec.)
Further restrict deductions for business meals and entertainment (Reduce
Exp. Ded.)
Tax capital gains at death (Death Tax)
Tax fringe benefits (Fringe Ben. Tax)
Institute a value-added tax (Val. Added Tax)
The results of the two rankings (Political Feasibility and Economic Merit) are
shown in the Table 5 on the next page. A related question concerning overall revenue
policy centered on defining programs that would have a positive impact on long-term
growth trends. When asked what options they would favor the panel answered as
follows:
1. Reinstate investment tax credit
46.4%
2. Reduce capital gains tax
45.5%
3. Reduce public consumption spending
36.2%
4. Eliminate taxation of dividends
36.2%
5. Increase public works spending
34.5%
6. Increase gas tax
28.9%
7. Increase spending on social
programs (head start, etc.)
16.6%
8. Increase taxes on incomes over
$250,000 a year
15.3%
9. Reduce the Social Security tax
10.3%
10. Lower middle class taxes
($20-50,000 income/yr)
8.1%
11. Allow IRA withdrawals with
payback in two years
4.7%
12. Grant tax credit of $5,000 for
new home purchase
3.0%
These overall views are consistent with the related data on the individual proposals, but
this tabulation gives a perspective on the overall ranking of the specific proposals.
The weighted index for revenue proposals is summarized in Charts 2 and 3
below. The index was calculated in the same manner described earlier for the
expenditure proposals.
Chart 2 -- Selected Revenue Enhancement Proposals - Weighted Index
Fringe
Val. Added
Energy
Eco
Mortgage
Pol
Soc. Sec.
Corp Tax
Gas
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Chart 3 -- Additional Revenue Enhancement Proposals - Weighted Index
33% Top Tax
Income Sur Tax
Reduce Exp..
Eco
OI Imports
Pol
Excise
Death
Reduce State
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Financial Restructuring: Cyclical or Secular Change?
It is clear that a significant amount of financial restructuring has been occurring
during the past two to three years. The panel was asked to evaluate the nature and
impact of that restructuring. When asked if the economy is now going through a larger,
but still typical, cyclical form of credit crunch or if there is something more fundamental
going on in the financial system, 80% expressed the view that the current situation is a
more fundamental process. Approximately 68% indicated that this period of financial
distress has reduced activity in their industry.
On a general basis the panel commented on the following solutions to the
financial distress in the economic system. The preferred solutions were:
Lower interest rates
33.2%
Remove constraints on
interstate banking
24.4%
Reduce overall regulation by
Federal authorities
22.1%
In my judgment there is a major restructuring that is still to be
accomplished, and until the poor balance sheets of households and corporations
are revitalized, there will be many difficulties in bringing the economy to a state
that is familiar to the traditional economic forecaster.
With that sweeping statement, let's turn to the results of the NABE macro panel
that was asked to discuss the specific numbers that define the economic outlook. Of
course, they do not have a clear crystal ball that predicts the outcome in the election,
especially the composition of the congressional delegations. Nevertheless, they are
fearless in making forecasts of economic developments in the coming months. These
forecasts serve as both a framework for the analysis of our membership and as a
benchmark for the public that is evaluating the economic proposals and philosophy of
the candidates for public office in the coming period. Thus the results of the macro
panel merit your close attention.
Outlook for the Economy Weakens
While NABE's members do not foresee another recession emerging by the end
of 1992 (only 2% rate such an event as higher than a 1 in 3 probability), the average
growth for the year has been revised down to 1.8%. At this time last year the members
were looking for 2.7% growth for 1992, a forecast which is similar to the forecast for
1993 which is suggested by our panel.
In the current survey, business economists are looking for 2.7% growth for
1993; hence the long anticipated recovery remains in the coming year. Further the
outlook is remarkably similar for economists in different industry groups; with
economists from goods producing firms, and from Trade, Transportation, Utility &
communications sectors seeing 1.9% growth for 1992 and economists from other
services slightly lower at 1.7% growth. The same small divergence in outlook by sector
prevails for 1993 as well.
5
4
3
2
Percent
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
Quarter
Chart 4 - Gross Domestic Product Growth by Quarter Since
1988.
There is No Triple Dip
Recent growth in Gross Domestic Product has been positive, with the most
recent data showing a three quarter period of negative growth beginning in the second
half of 1990 and ending with the decline of the first quarter of 1991. However, some
observers have labeled the decline from 1.7% growth in the second quarter of 1991 to
0.6% growth in the fourth quarter as the "double dip," even though growth was
positive. Now the "triple dip" label is being applied to the slowdown from 2.9% in the
forecasters have positive growth for the next year, so it is clear that an official recession
(two quarters of negative growth) is not expected. The average forecast for the lowest
10% is 1.8% growth; only 0.5% lower than the average forecast and 1% lower than the
average for the highest 10%. Thus the range of forecasts continues to be in a rather
narrow band, a characteristic of forecasts for the past 18 months.
A dramatic way to summarize economic conditions in the United States during
the past three years is to consider the change in real ($1987) value of final sales of
domestic product.
In the first quarter of 1990 final sales increased by over 50 billion dollars; in the
second quarter of 1992 it is only 57.7 billion dollars higher than it was at the end of
1989. For three years the economy has declined gradually and recovered gradually for
Continuing Concern About the Lack of Strength
NABE's forecasters continue to look for stronger recovery, but the current
results have caused members to take the view that recovery is a few quarters in the
future. These views of the future are summarized in Chart 1, "GDP Growth Forecasts
by Survey Period.
At the 1991 annual meeting of NABE, it was noted that the view of NABE
forecasters concerning 1992 had not changed significantly over the year (See Chart 2),
but the view concerning 1991 had weakened following the November 1990 survey.
This year the outlook for 1992 also weakened during the year, and the outlook for next
year is for moderate growth. Thus, throughout 1991 and 1992 the group has been
looking for a slow recovery to be stimulated by easing monetary policy.
3
2.5
2
1.5
1991 Forecasts
1
0.5
1992 Forecasts
0
1993 Forecasts
1993 Forecasts
Feb-90
May-90
Aug-90
Nov-90
Feb-91
1991 Forecasts
May-91
Aug-91
Nov-91
Feb-92
May-92
Aug-92
Chart 5 - The NABE Forecasts for 1991-1993 by Survey Period
a net result of no real growth in domestic product. Most of the recovery during the past
four quarters occurred in the first quarter of this year.
Factors in the Expected Recovery
The NABE forecasters cited two primary reasons they expected economic
recovery to strengthen. Nearly one-half cited conventional monetary stimulus including
the impact of falling interest rates on interest sensitive spending for items such as
autos, houses and business capital. Another 45% of the forecasters thought that a
"working through" of "structural" imbalances such as high private debt burdens, large
government deficits, and depressed real estate values would contribute to the recovery.
Fiscal stimulus and "supply shocks" such as a sharp decline in the price of food or
energy were cited by about 6% of the forecasters.
Over half of the participants in this survey indicated that they had revised
inflationary expectations down more than a quarter of a percentage point for the next
five years with the majority of that group having revised the average expected inflation
rate down by 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points. About 17% of the NABE forecasters have
revised their inflationary expectations downward by 0.5 to 1 percentage point.
Using the 30-year Treasury bond as a benchmark, the long end of real interest
rates averaged between 6% and 7% in the 1980's. In the present economic
environment the respondents expected lower real interest rates on average between
now and the end of 1997. Nearly 39% forecasted real rates of below 4%, and 49%
anticipated real rates in the range of 4% to 6%. Only 13% expected real rates to be
over 6% on average for the next five years.
With lower anticipated inflation and lower real interest rates, over 56% of the
NABE forecasters expect the international value of the dollar on a trade-weighted basis
to be up between now and the end of 1997, with over three quarters of the stronger
dollar advocates expecting the dollar to increase in value between 5% and 15% over
the five-year period. About 41% of the participants in this survey thought the dollar
would remain where it is, or decline by 5% to 15%. Given the volatility of currency
markets during the past five years the current forecast seems to reflect a more stable
exchange rate system in the future.
The Impact of Economic Theory on Views of Business Economists
Participants in the NABE macro economic policy survey were asked to identify
both industry of employment and the predominant theoretical framework that served as
the foundation for their forecasts. The largest group resists a "standard" label and is
probably inclined toward an eclectic approach to economic analysis. Significantly,
despite the attention given to monetary, rational expectations and supply side theories,
only one quarter of the participating business economists identified with those theories.
Further, economists from "other services" dominate the participants reflecting the
influence of financial economists and economic consultants.
Historical Track Record for NABE Forecasts
(Forecasts made from the previous summer)
Real GNP
CPI-U*
Growth
Forecast
Actual
Diff.
Fore.
Actual
Diff.
1977
5.1
4.7
0.4
6.0
6.7
-0.7
1978
4.5
5.3
-0.8
6.2
7.3
-1.1
1979
2.5
2.5
0.0
7.3
8.9
-1.6
1980
0.1
-0.2
0.3
7.8
9.1
-1.3
1981
0.7
1.9
-1.2
8.9
9.6
-0.7
1982
3.0
-2.5
5.5
8.3
6.4
1.9
1983
2.9
3.6
-0.7
6.5
3.2
3.3
1984
4.5
6.8
-2.3
5.0
4.3
0.7
1985
3.6
3.4
0.2
5.0
3.6
1.4
1986
2.8
2.7
0.1
4.1
1.9
2.2
1987
2.7
3.4
-0.7
3.3
3.7
-0.4
1988
2.7
4.5
-1.8
4.7
4.1
0.6
1989
2.0
2.5
-0.5
5.1
4.8
0.3
1990
1.8
1.0
0.8
4.5
5.4
-0.9
1991
1.2
-0.1
1.3
5.3
3.3
2.0
1992
2.7
3.7
1993
2.7
3.4
Average Absolute
1.1
1.2
Error
* GNP deflator for 1975-81; CPI All Urban Consumers 1982-90
Supplemental Table Political-Economic Issues
Trade Policy
Over 50% 50/50 Less than 50%
A.
What is the probability that the GATT negotiations
will be concluded successfully within the next
six months?
7
36
57
1993
After 93
Neg. Fall Congr. KO
B.
In your judgment, the North American Free Trade
agreement will be ratified by Congress
57
21.6
3.1
8.3
C.
Which of the following statements best reflects your
views?: "American firms" lack of competitiveness
verses Japanese firms is due to ---"
An overvalued dollar
40.1
Trade barriers (implicit or real) in Japan
20.7
Faulty U.S. economic policy
17.2
Noncompetitive wages in the U.S.
12.3
Ineffective U.S. management
2.6
Noncompetitive products
1.8
Other
5.3
D.
Should U.S. trade policy be oriented toward--
Multilateral approaches such as the GATT
negotiations
14.6
Bilateral or regional negotiations such as
NAFTA
9.3
Both multilateral and bilateral approaches
65.9
Emphasis enforcement of fair trade provisions
such as Section 301 which allows retaliatory
tariffs in cases where unfair foreign competition
is found
10.2
Aid to the Commonwealth of Independent States (formerly the USSR)
A.
Economic reforms in Russia and the CIS are causing market disruptions and some
disillusionment within the general population. The problems allowed conservatives to affect a slowing of
reforms at the April meeting of the Congress of People's Deputies. In response to this slowdown in
reforms, the IMF has withheld certain assistance. How closely should the assistance to Russian and the
CIS be tied to reforms:
No reforms, no aid
25.3
Aid should be extended with consideration for the
domestic political situation
55.9
Aid should be given for humanitarian reasons with less
importance attached to reforms
18.8
Z.
Relative to projected economic performance under a second Bush Administration, characterize
the following under a President Clinton:
Higher
Lower
Same
Economic Growth
52.8
22.7
24.5
Government Regulation
77.6
2.6
19.8
Inflation
71.1
4.7
24.1
Budget Deficit
65.2
14.2
20.6
Trade Deficit
44.2
27.5
28.3
Dollar
20.8
51.5
27.7
Long Term Rates
68
10
22.1
Short Term Rates
63.6
10.4
26
S & P 500
32.9
45
22.1
Agree
Disagree
Difference
AA.
Deficit reduction projections under the Clinton program
are primarily due to economic growth and not the net
impact of Mr. Clinton's proposals.
82.1
17.9
64.2
NABE
National Association of Business Economists
1992 Annual Meeting
Dallas, Texas
September 13-16, 1992
Economic and Policy Surveys
Presented by:
Joseph W. Duncan
Vice President, NABE
and
Vice President, Corporate Economist and Chief Statistician
The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation
New York, New York
September 14, 1992
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Houston, Texas
OFFICE OF
PRESIDENTIAL ADVANCE
COVER PAGE
TO:
Jannifer Grossman
FROM:
David Jones
TOTAL NUMBER OF PAGES:
5
DATE:
(including this cover page) 10/8
TIME:
10AM
MESSAGE:
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR PROBLENS WITH THIS TRANSMISSION PLEASE CALL:
TELEPHONE NUMBER:
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6:35 pm
THE PRESIDENT is announced into Exhibition Hall,
proceeds to Seat and is Seated.
6:36 pm Dinner is served.
7:15 pm
THE PRESIDENT departs Exhibition Hall and proceeds
to Holding Room.
7:17 pm
THE PRESIDENT arrives Holding Room for Private
Time.
(PRIVATE TIME: 10 MINUTES)
7:27 pm
THE PRESIDENT departs Holding Room and proceeds to
Exhibition Hall Off-Stage Announcement Area.
7:28 pm
THE PRESIDENT arrives Exhibition Hall Off-Stage
Announcement Area and holds briefly.
7:30 pm A video will be shown at this time.
7:35 pm
THE PRESIDENT is announced onto Stage, proceeds to
Seat and is Seated.
NOTE:
This event is satellite linked to seven
cities around the country.
7:36 pm
Live shots of each up-link city are
displayed.
7:38 pm
Mr. Robert Mitchum, Master
of
Ceremonies, introduces Ms. Sandy Fatti,
Singer.
7:39 pm
Ms. Patti sings National Anthem
(from St. Louis).
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7:40 pm
Mr. Mitchum makes welcoming Remarks
and introduces Mr. Rob Mosbacher,
Chairman, Texas Victory '92.
7:42 pm
Mr. Mosbacher introduces Mz. Lod Cook,
Chairman, Victory 92 Dinner, Los
Angeles (from Houston).
7:43 pm
Mr. Cook makes brief remarks and
introduces Mr. Charles Gargano,
Chairman, Victory 92 Dinner, New York
(from New York City).
7:44 pm
Mr. Gargano makes brief remarks and
introduces Mr. Bucky Bush, Chairman,
Victory '92 Dinner, St. Louis (from St:
Louis).
7:45 pm
Mr. Bush introduces Mr. Gordon Woodrow,
Chairman, Victory '92 Dinner,
Philadelphia (from
Philadelphia).
7:46 pm
Mr. Gordon Woodrow
makes brief remarks
and introduces Ms.
Pat Harrison, Co-
Chair, Victory '92 Dinner, Washington,
D.C.
7:47 pm
Ms. Harrison makes brief remarks and
introduces Mr. Alec Poitevint, Chairman,
Victory '92 Dinner, Atlanta (from
Atlanta).
7:48 pm
Mr. Poitevint makes brief remarks and
introduces Mr. Ted Welch, National
Chairman, Victory '92 (from Atlanta).
7:49 pm
Mr. Welch returns program to Mr. Mitchum
(from Houston).
7:50 pm
Mr. Mitchum introduces The Honorable
Robert Dole, U.S. Senate, Kansas (from
Washington D.C.).
7:51 pm
Senator Dole makes brief remarks and
introduces The Honorable Bob Michel,
U.S. Representative, Illinois, 18th
District.
7:55 pm
Congressman Michel makes brief remarks.
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7:58 pm
Mr. Mitchum introduces Mr. Arnold
Schwarzenegger, Actor.
7:59 pm Mr. Schwarzenegger makes brief remarks
(from Atlanta).
8:03 pm
Film Highlights of Ford Presidency are
displayed.
8:05 pm
Mr. Bob Hope, Entertainer, makes brief
remarks (from Los Angeles) and
introduces The Honorable Gerald Ford,
Former President (from Philadelphia)
8:07 pm
Former President Ford makes brief
remarks.
8:11 pm
Ms. Mary Hart, Co-Host, Entertainment
Tonight, introduces Mrs. Marilyn Quayle
(from Los Angeles)
8:12 pm
Mrs. Quayle makes brief remarks (from
Washington D.C.).
8:16 pm
Ms. Shirley Jones, Singer, introduces
Mrs. Bush (from New York).
8:17 pm
Mrs. Bush remarks (from New York).
8:21 pm
Mr. Mitchum introduces Mr. Warren Moon,
Quarterback, Houston Oilers (from
Houston).
8:22 pm
Mr. Moon introduces The Honorable Dan
Quayle, Vice President of the United
States (from Houston).
8:23 pm
Vice President Quayle makes brief
remarks (from St. Louis).
8:29 pm
Filmed Highlights of Reagan Presidency
are displayed.
8:31 pm
The Honorable Fete Wilson, Governor of
California, introduces The Honorable
Ronald Reagan (from Los Angeles).
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8:32 pm
THE PRESIDENT is introduced for Remarks by
The Honorable Ronald Reagan, Former President.
8:35 pm
THE PRESIDENT makes Remarks.
8:45 pm
and is Seated.
THE PRESIDENT concludes Remarks, proceeds to Seat
8:47 pm
"God Bless America" is sung by Shirley
Jones (from New York City).
8:49 pm
Mr. Mitchum recognizes "Receive-Only"
Cities and thanks guests during music.
8:54 pm
Announcer closes show.
9:00 pm
THE PRESIDENT concludes participation in Victory
'92 Dinner, departs Stage and boards Motorcade.
9:05 pm
THE PRESIDENT departs J. W. Marriott Hotel en
route Spiscopal High School Landing Zone.
MOTORCADE ASSIGNMENTS:
Same as on Arrival.
(Drive Time: 10 Minutes)
9:15 pm
Landing Zone and boards Marine One.
THE PRESIDENT arrives Episcopal High School
9:20 pm
THE PRESIDENT departs Episcopal High School
Landing Zone en route Ellington Field.
Parta Min-
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UNITED STATES
News from
John McCain
*
SENATE
U.S. Senator Arizona
TO:
LARS PIERSEN
FROM:
MARK SALTER
DATE:
TIME:
NUMBER OF PAGES
INCLUDING COVER:
5
OFFICE NUMBER (202)224-2235
111 Russell Senate Office Building Washington, D.C. 20510
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Senator John McCain
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20510
HOLD FOR RELEASE:
CONTACT: KIRSTIN WALKER
THURSDAY, AUGUST 20, 1992
(713)727-2465 SKY PAGER
8:30 P.M. (EST)
(713) 748-3221 SHERATON ASTRODOME
STATEMENT BY SENATOR McCAIN AT THE REPUBLICAN CONVENTION
On September 2, 1944, the youngest aviator in the United
States Navy had a near brush with death as his plane was hit by
enemy fire over an island in the Pacific. As an eighteen year
old, that pilot had left his family and the pleasures of youth to
risk his life for love of country. He had put his country first
-- first before his own welfare, first before his personal
ambitions, first before his very life.
Throughout a lifetime of service to America, George Bush has
never lost the devotion to duty that led him to take his turn in
a bomber's cockpit and be hurled into a terrible conflict for the
sake of his country and its cause. Nor has he forgotten the
sacrifices made by all Americans who served their nation in war.
When Bill Clinton accepted his party's nomination, he made no
mention of America's veterans or the suffering they endured on
our behalf. His party's convention began with veterans parading
the colors. But after that brief moment of attention, no further
word was uttered for them. Perhaps, they were sent to the broom
closet where the Democratic leadership of Congress was hidden.
But at the end of the Gulf War, at the moment of his greatest
achievement, George Bush did not ask our acclaim for himself. He
gave all the credit to America's sons and daughters who were the
force behind Desert Storm.
Our victory in the Gulf also provided the President, and the
American people an opportunity to say to the veterans of another
war for whom there were no parades: welcome home, job well done.
Those of us who fought in Vietnam will be forever grateful.
The American people stood with the President as he resisted
the violent ambitions of Saddam Hussein. The Democrats, the ones
who claim to be political visionaries, were the President's only
critics. Angered at being proven so utterly wrong, they now seek
to re-write the history of the President's finest hour. Lacking
the courage of what few convictions they have, they attack the
President to hide their own mistakes.
Such is the typical arrogance of liberals who, when they find
themselves yet again in opposition to the people's will, always
respond: "we know better than the people."
When they fail to convince us, they belittle us. They
dismiss the President's accomplishments abroad as irrelevant to
our nation's well-being, and not worthy of debate in our
elections.
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Tell that to the veterans of Desert Storm.
Does Clinton believe that the liberation of Eastern Europe,
the collapse of the Soviet Union, the democratization of our own
hemisphere, this global triumph of freedom have no consequences
for Americans?
George Bush, tested in crisis and under fire, has helped
secure a world in which our children need not sleep with the fear
of nuclear annihilation; in which war will not so frequently
claim the best of American generations; in which the American
taxpayers' resources need not be drained to defend ourselves from
a hostile superpower; in which nations can share the common
values of free societies, and pursue together peace and
prosperity.
With President Bush, we have a leader who demonstrates
courage in action and leaves the false heroics to others. You
cannot lead as courageously as George Bush has led us without a
vision worthy of our great civilization. His vision is our
vision; it is our faith in an idea, and idea which has now
overcome the greatest tyrants in history.
Someone once defined genius as knowing one big thing. Such
is the source of America's genius.
For when the Berlin Wall was breached, and communism quickly
collapsed, we Americans were overjoyed but we were not entirely
surprised. Because we Americans knew one big thing: we knew
that walls are made of impermanent things, but the will to
freedom is eternal.
There is a quote by the great writer, William Faulkner, which
I have always admired: "I decline to accept the end of man," he
wrote "I believe that man will not merely endure; he will
prevail. He is immortal, not because he alone among creatures
has an inexhaustable voice, but because he has a soul, a spirit
capable of compassion and sacrifice and endurance.'
Today, on every continent, Faulkner's hopeful creed has been
affirmed. Nearly half a billion people have emerged from
communism and authoritarianiam into a new age of enlightenment.
No nation has contributed more to the global success of liberty
than America. And no President has served this noble cause with
greater courage and wisdom than President George Bush.
Permit me now to call the roll of nations which began their
advance from tyranny to freedom since George Bush became the
leader of the free world.
Russia
The Ukraine
Belarus
Moldova
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Armenia
Georgia
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Latvia
Lithuania
Estonia
Eastern Germany
Poland
Hungary
Czechoslovakia
Romania
Bulgaria
Albania
Slovenia
Croatia
Nicaragua
Panama
Paraguay
Chile
South Africa
Namibia
Angola
Mozambique
Nigeria
Benin
The Congo
Zambia
Ethiopia
Kuwait
Nepal
Bangladesh
Afghanistan
Cambodia
Mongolia
Bill Clinton and his Party would have us believe that the
Iron Curtain collapsed by accident.
Tell that to the American people who have always had faith
that their beliefs, values and unwavering love of freedom would
someday prevail in the world.
Tell that to America's veterans. They know, better than
most, that the triumph of freedom in the world today is a direct
consequence of the blood shed by their compatriots on
battlefields too numerous to mention. And they know it is the
consequence of resolute American leadership, leadership of the
quality provided by George Bush and Ronald Reagan.
No, it is no accident that thousands of Kuwaiti children born
after February 1991 bear the name George.
It is no accident that China's brave students raised a statue
of liberty in Tianenman Square to signify their common cause with
the glorious cause that was the American revolution.
And it was no accident when a young Czech worker stood above
a Prague Square, before a million of his countrymen, and read
with simple dignity a manifesto; a manifesto that declared a new
day for the peoples of Eastern Europe. But he began that new day
with borrowed words, when, trembling with emotion, he proclaimed:
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"We hold these truths to be self-evident. That all
men are created equal and endowed by their Creator
with certain inalienable rights' among these, life,
"
liberty and the pursuit of happiness.
-4-