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Originally Processed With FOIA(s): FOIA Number: S S FOIA MARKER This is not a textual record. This is used as an administrative marker by the George Bush Presidential Library Staff. Record Group/Collection: George H.W. Bush Presidential Records Collection/Office of Origin: Speechwriting, White House Office of Series: Speech File Backup Files Subseries: Alpha File, 1987-1991 OA/ID Number: 13843 Folder ID Number: 13843-005 Folder Title: [Doug] Chia, 1991-1992 [2] Stack: Row: Section: Shelf: Position: G 26 23 2 7 01/24/1992 10:55 FROM B00 RP&C, and CALI. TO 12024566218 22 P.01 BIS Strategic Decisions Worldwide Advisors on Information Technology BIS a - Company FACSIMILE TRANSMISSION FAX: (617)878-6650 Transmit to: Doug Chia Date: 1/24 Company: cc: Copy to Fax Number: 202-456-6218 From: Janet FUGAZZOHO Service/Dept.: ICS Number of pages (including cover sheet): 1 Message: installed base U.S. fax machines 1985 1991 500,000 5,900,000 Just Transmitted: Date: Time: Please reply to: BIS Strategic Decisions One Longwater Circle Norwell, MA 02061 Tel: (617) 982-9500 Fax: 878-6650 (Smith/Grossman) January 21, 1992 Draft Two RELIGION PRESIDENTIAL REMARKS: RELIGIOUS BROADCASTERS SHERATON WASHINGTON HOTEL MONDAY, JANUARY 27, 1992 10:00 A.M. President Rose and Director Cook -- and let me salute your leadership of the NRB. Ladies and gentlemen. Fellow communicators. // This marks the fifth time I have had the honor of addressing the annual convéntion of the National Religious Broadcasters. ((It's always a pleasure driving over here from the White House. I think if Moses were around today, he'd be called upon to part the traffic.) // ( (First, I'm glad to see my friend Jerry Fallwell. I invited Jerry to go jogging with me this morning, but he had his own exercise plans. / He walked across the Potomac. )) // ((Then, there's my other friend, Pat Robertson. Pat was telling me you have the lowest catering bill of any convention that comes to this hotel. // It's amazing how you can feed this entire multitude on seven loaves and fishes. )) 11 A year ago we met in the first week of a crusade to protect what is right, and true. I came before you to talk of what was not a Christian or Jewish war -- not a Moslem war. It was a just war. // In the Persian Gulf we fought for good versus evil / right versus wrong / dignity against oppression. America stood fast -- so that liberty could stand tall. // Today, I want to thank you for helping America, as Christ ordained, be a light unto the world." Your support honored the 2 finest sailors / soldiers / Marines / Air Force / and Coast Guardsmen any Nation has ever known. // What they did in war, let us now do in peace. // Just as our forces fought to defend all that is best in America, we need you to help instill the Gallup, traditional values that make life and liberty worth defending. // Let me begin with some good news for modern man. According Director to Gallup surveys, no society is more religious than the United Princeton States of America. // Seven X in ten Americans believe in life Relision after deáth -- eight in ten that God works miracles. Nine in ten Research Center. Americans pray. And more than nine in ten believe in God. // To (609) 924- which I say: Thank God. // Is there a Galloup Now, I know this is an election year. ((I don company 9600 Damascus -- but this Primary Season, we're hearing I YES! conversions on the road to New Hampshire. )) // We I candidates promising this, and that -- espousing pol George suddenly in fashion. // Today, I want to speak of 1 Gally sustain America -- values that are always in fashior The first value is not simply American -- but 1 refer to the sanctity of life. You know my position restate it now. We need policies that encourage adoption, not abortion. // Next comes a value which gives each life meaning: The self- reliance central to the dignity of work. // Go to the barrios of San Antonio, or the suburbs of St. Paul. There you will find people who ask only what our forefathers had: The same opportunity which helped us brave independence / push back the 3 wilderness / win two World Wars / and create the highest standard of living in the history of man. // The Bible reminds us: "By thy sweat shall Ye know them. " What we must do is give working Americans the level playing field to keep us rich in goods, and spirit. // Tomorrow, my State of the Union Address will detail how we David Garrett can nurture the creativity as old as 1776 -- harness it to the X needs of a new American Century. // Remember: To this day, the 453-8400 NASA "Chiefs only footprints on the moon are American footprints. / The only flag on the moon is the stars and stripes. 11 The knowledge that put it there is stamped: "Made in USA." // The world looks to us to lead -- and lead we will. // Tune in tomorrow, and see if = you don't agree: I will announce a program to help Americans outwork / outproduce / and outcompete any Nation in the world. // The next value I speak of must be forever cast in stone. // I speak of decency -- the moral courage to say what is right, and condemn what's wrong. // We need a nation closer to The Waltons than the Bundys or the Simpsons -- an America which rejects the rising tide of incivility and intolerance. // We see this tide in the naked epithet -- and in the code words -- that play to our worst prejudices. / We see it when groups like Public Enemy soil the memory of Martin Luther King, Jr. with vengeance and violence. // There is no place in America for such apostles of hate. // If you agree with me, write -- call -- picket -- petition: Demand an end to the trash which poisons our kids's minds and debases their souls. // 4 This brings me to a fourth value crucial to America: Belief in family -- the foundation of our strength. ((I admit it: I've been lucky -- a wonderful wife and five great kids. // Having helped put them through college, I remember receiving letters from them, and there would always be a P.S. at the bottom. It was those three words that say so much about the bond between parents at home and kids at school. "Please send money. ")) // Phillippians reminds us, "Whatsoever things are pure think on these things." To me, this is what family is: A pure and priceless bequest. // Too often today, the family is under siege. I say to you: Each one of us -- parents, preachers, politicians, and teachers -- must lift it from the valley of indifference to the high plateau of Canaan. // That is why I demanded that the child-care bill I signed in 1990 allow parents -- not bureaucrats -- to decide how to care for their children. I refused to see the option of religious- based child care restricted or eliminated. // The family is also why our education program -- America 2000 -- insists that choice include both private and public schools. // Last week, I announced another policy to strengthen the family: Expanding the pre-school program to serve all those who are eligible -- the largest funding increase in the history of Project Head Start. // Finally, families will stay together only if drugs do not drive them apart. As Elijah drove the false prophet Baal [BALE] out of Israel, we must erase drugs from every corner of America. // 5 I will be honest: We have not erased them yet. But in the spirit of the occasion, let me add: Our progress has been miraculous. // Over the past four years, marijuana, crack, and cocáine use has declined, What's more today kids aged 9 to 12 are the most anti-drug group in America. The highest at-risk is ages 13 to 17 -- but last year / for the first time / 13-year- olds mirrored the behavior of pré-teenagers. // Drugs effect a multitude of issues. They contribute to AIDS and homelessness --- shattering families and futures / hopes and dreams. / That's why -- literally -- we should thank God for the drug use decline. The drop in use doesn't just prove we were right in our assault on substance use: It shows how we can achieve drugs' unconditional surrender. // We will triumph through tough enforcement -- and through education: Increasing awareness of the damage drugs do. // Over the last four years, more kids talked about drugs with their parents and teachers. Another force has been America's print and electronic media -- the major source of drug information and the primary "influencer" on drug use, especially among the young. // Together, they have helped reawaken America's conscience -- which, in turn, inspires America's greatness. / Later today, I will unveil our fourth National Drug Control Strategy to build on these beginnings. It will say no to drugs. It will also say yes to life. // To stop drug use will require caring, and community -- above all, abundant love. / Let me tell you a story. Once, a 6 great First Lady -- Pat Nixon -- toured a medical center and stopped to embrace a little girl blinded by rubella. For a few See minutes, she talked to the girl and held her close. Later, Sept 18, Speech someone told her that the child was deaf as well as blind. A H Pat answered that she had known thát. // "But she knows what 1991 salt lake love is, " Mrs. Nixon said. "She can feel love. " // city, UT.I America's love i ays. In what we oppose: Injustice and tyranny 9 trug Nysis Utam it: The inalienable rights that include t yes, vote as we pleas Sept SLC dream, worship, and, our liberty, America once deposed a king / fouc 92 MX 17c = / five times this Century sent American ours alone -- so we 1 POTUS speech . Yet freedom is not in Utah our ideal. Today, we must also export it € Hosp visit ove all, spiritually. // If you doubt freedom the Persian Gulf. / Look to the former Soviet Union, where those once enslaved crowd churches and synagogues. / Look to Eastern Europe, where Christmas carols warm the bright winter chill. // It is written: "In the beginning was the Word." Here is the word for 1992: Today, the times are on the side of peace -- because the world, increasingly, is on the side of God. // This brings me to the ultimate value that sustains America, and the values I have already cited: A belief in prayer --and through prayer, in the One through whom all things are possible. // No country can claim a special place in God's heart. Yet we are better as a people because He has a special place in ours. // 7 I once asked one of my grandkids how he felt about prayer. He said: "Just try getting through a math test without it." 11 In Sunday school, children learn that God is everywhere -- but in public school they find that He's absent from class. It's time to end this mockery. // I continue to believe -- as do the overwhelming majority of Americans -- in the right to voluntary school prayer. / I call on the Congress to pass a Constitutional Amendment putting the Faith of our Fathers back in our schools. / The values I have spoken of reminds us of the truth that comes on one's knees. // I believe with all my heart that one cannot be America's President without a belief in God and in prayer. I also believe America will be a better place if the Golden Rule becomes our daily guide. // The poet Walt Whitman was once asked to name America's true grandeur. He replied, simply: "Its religion. Without that, America is not America." // Let that be our essence as a people -- and our message as a Nation. Thank you for this occasion. God bless this most wondrous land on earth -- the United States of America. # # # # FROM: OXFORD UNIV PRESS T0:912024566218 JAN 22, 1992 8:29AM #250 P.01 OXFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS OXFORD Business Office: 2001 Evans Road Cary, North Carolina 27513 FACSIMILE MESSAGE TO: FROM: Doug Chia Be Hy loup/ /cs Date: 1-22-92 RE: Info- OED NUMBER OF PAGES INCLUDING COVER SHEET 3 Telephone: (919) 677-0977 (800) 451-7556 Telex: (919) 677-9654 Customer Service Fax: (919) 677-1303 Accounting Fax: (919)677-8828 Office Services Fax: (919) 677-8877 FROM: OXFORD UNIV PRESS TO:912024566218 JAN 22, 1992 8:31AM #251 P.01 "The greatest wor 20 Vol. Oxford The Oxford The Oxford The Oxford The Oxford The Oxford The Oxford The Oxford The Oxt glish English English English English English English English Englis honary Dictionary Dictionary Dictionary Dictionary Dictionary Dictionary Dictionary Dictiona SECOND SECOND SECOND SECOND SECOND SECOND SECOND EDITION EDITION trinos minos SECONI IDITION IDITION IDITION EDITION VI VII VIII IX X XI XII XIII XIV Haith Hake-Ingnel Ingo Lemyne Lanard-Mdr Mim Nevake- Pew-Prolusory Promachos- Neutrosabilité Revaccinal Prvetade Reutter Scoyer OXFORD OXFORD OXFORD OXFORD OXFORD OXFORD CAFORD EXFORD OXFOR 19 1989 instrates the defi- Integrates the Includes an Completely rede- titions with over 2.4 original OED and its additional 5,000 signed and reset to Illion quotations. four-volume Supple- new words and accommodate this ment in one alpha- meanings. vast wealth of More than five times betical sequence. The rapid evolution of the material in the most Published between 1972 language throughout the the size of any other accessible form. and 1986. the Supplement world has meant the dictionary of The clarity and legibility of was produced to bring the introduction of more and the OED have been signifi- English. Dictionary up to date. to more words and senses of cantly enhanced by its new extend its coverage to the words. Many of the most design and typesetting. The language of the mid- recent of these-from typeface is more open. there twentieth century, and to yuppification to perestroika-- is more space between reflect the language's ever- are now included and fully entries. the headwords broadening nature. By described for the first time. stand out more clearly, and merging the original edition Not only does this make the the paper used is brighter. and the Supplement, the Second Edition the most with greater opacity. Second Edition puts this comprehensive dictionary unparalleled coverage into in the world: it strengthens FROM: OXFORD UNIV PRESS TO: 912024566218 JAN 22, 1992 8:33AM #251 P.02 1991 FALL September The Compact At last-the OXFORD Compact Edition of the OED II Captures the complete ENGLISH twenty-volume OED II in just one nine-by-twelve volume, at one-tenth the price DICTIONARY in slipcase with reading glass Second Edition Edited by EDMUND WEINER and JOHN SIMPSON DOMI MINA NUS TID W hen the twenty-volume Oxford English Dictionary, Second Edition, 577,000 cross-references, and over appeared two years ago, the public response 2,412,000 illustrative quotations. But as was extraordinary. The AP and UPI an- large as it is, perhaps its most important nounced publication over their newswires. feature is its historical focus. The OED Time and Newsweek ran full-page articles. records not only words and meanings The New Yorker published an extensive currently in use but also those that have essay. Virtually every major paper in long been considered obsolete. Moreover, America and in Great Britain covered the under each definition of a word is a chrono- event. And from every corner, the praise was logically arranged group of quotations that lavish. Time called it "a scholarly Everest." illustrate the word's usage down through Newsweek, "a celebration of language." And the years, beginning with its carliest known Herbert Mitgang, in The New York Times, appearance. The result is a dictionary that called the new OED "the last word on offers unique insight into the way our words" and "the arbiter of the English language has, over the centuries, grown, world." language as it is read and spoken all over the changed, and been put to use. More than 100 years in the making, The Now comes the Compact Edition of the Oxford English Dictionary is now universally OED II, which captures all the wealth of acknowledged as the world's greatest scholarship found in the original edition in dictionary-the supreme arbiter on the just one volume, and at one-tenth the price. usage and meaning of English words, a The Compact is not an abridgement, but a fascinating guide to the history and evolu- direct photoreduction of the entire 20- tion of the language, and one of the volume set, with nine pages of the original greatest works of scholarship ever produced. on every nine-by-twelve page of the Com- The Washington Post has written that "no pact (a magnifying glass comes with it). As one who reads or writes seriously can be in the Second Edition, the Compact com- without the OED." Now, with the Com- bines in one alphabetical sequence the pact, the world's greatest dictionary is sixteen volumes of the first OED and the within the reach of anyone who wants one. four Supplements-plus an extra five thou- About the Editors: sand new words to bring this monumental dictionary completely up to date. And it is Edmund Weiner helped edit the Supple- monumental, with definitions of 500,000 ment to the OED and compiled the Oxford words, 290,000 main entries, 137,000 Guide to English Usage. John Simpson also pronunciations, 249,300 etymologies, worked on the Supplement and prepared the Concise Oxford Dictionary of Proverbs. $295.00t, 861258.3, 2416 pp., 10.1/4 14-1/4 -Charity XV-1- Manufactures No. 1347. Factory Sales of Electronic Components and Consumer Electronic Products: 1980 to 1989 [In millions of dollars] PRODUCT 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 Electronic components 25,571 28,784 29,561 33,856 43,306 39,459 38,829 45,335 50,735 54,626 Solid state products 9,089 10,309 10,729 12,570 17,032 14,650 14,408 16,819 19,685 21,650 Parts 7,080 7,647 7,403 8,318 10,155 9,329 9,169 10,664 11,292 11,678 Electron tubes 1,744 1,959 1,885 i 2,049 2,137 2,055 2,125 2,176 2,263 2,578 Other components 7,658 8,869 9,544 10,919 13,982 13,423 13,121 15,676 17,495 18,720 Consumer electronic products. 10,891 12,438 12,499 14,560 17,594 18,907 21,472 21,828 22,132 (NA) Color TV receivers 4,210 4,349 4,253 5,002 5,538 5,565 6,040 6,303 6,277 6,530 Car audio 1,368 2,000 2,100 1,900 2,500 2,761 3,135 3,523 3,937 4,125 Video cassette recorders 621 1,127 1,303 2,162 3,585 4,173 3,978 3,442 2,848 2,625 Camcorders 621 1,127 1,303 2,162 3,585 4,738 1,280 1,651 1,972 2,007 Separate audio components. 1,424 1,363 1,181 1,268 913 1,132 1,358 1,715 1,854 1,871 Portable audio tape equipment 1,403 1,157 971 1,102 1,191 1,140 1,389 1,469 1,547 1,595 Audio systems 809 720 573 630 976 1,372 1,370 1,048 1,225 1,217 Blank video cassettes (NA) (NA) 357 580 770 1,055 1,235 1,006 936 923 Projection TV. (NA) 287 236 268 385 488 529 527 529 478 Home radios 468 501 530 565 661 379 408 409 377 379 Blank audio cassettes (NA) 227 202 234 256 263 292 364 354 367 Monochrome TV receivers 588 505 507 465 419 328 373 341 236 156 Video disc players (NA) 55 54 81 45 23 26 30 40 59 Color cameras (NA) 147 232 303 355 228 59 (NA) (NA) (NA) NA Not available. 1 Includes sockets, delay lines, 2 loudspeakers, magnetic components, transducers, printed circuit boards, microwave components, assemblies, and parts. 1980 includes console phonographs. Source: Electronic Industries Association, Washington, DC, Electronic Market Data Book, annual. (Copyright.) No. 1348. Selected Electric Home Appliances and Consumer Electronic Products- Shipments and Retail Value: 1985 to 1989 [Compiled from report of associations and manufacturers. Retail value represents median price of product times the number of units shipped. Except as indicated, covers electric appliances only] MANUFACTURES SHIPMENTS RETAIL VALUE PRODUCT (1,000 units) (mil. dol.) 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 Major appliances: Air conditioners 2,900 2,765 3,659 4,379 4,909 1,286 1,130 1,502 1,774 2,012 Refrigerators 1 5,874 6,284 6,724 6,973 6,799 4,121 4,299 4,557 4,860 4,881 Microwave ovens 10,633 12,658 12,741 11,189 10,848 3,468 3,600 3,541 2,726 2,541 Ranges, electric 3,218 3,532 3,362 3,186 3,068 1,517 1,589 1,643 1,545 1,524 Freezers 2 1,140 1,154 1,180 1,250 1,189 546 517 526 555 544 Ranges, gas 1,807 1,895 2,132 2,132 2,068 821 880 992 989 960 Dryers 3,701 4,114 4,421 4,363 4,404 1,326 1,451 1,544 1,536 1,422 Washers 4,925 5,430 5,610 5,708 5,765 2,231 2,379 2,470 2,514 2,341 Video: TV, color 16,894 18,855 18,473 19,173 20,955 7,250 7,632 8,221 8,434 8,749 Videocassette recorders 11,912 12,685 11,700 10,998 9,843 (NA) 5,067 4,553 4,348 3,767 Camcorders (NA) 1,090 1,600 2,108 2,348 (NA) 1,213 1,674 2,082 2,170 Video cameras 402 181 110 90 81 266 118 77 62 51 Video cassette players. (NA) 150 182 213 234 (NA) 28 28 32 35 Audio/HiFi: Components 3 8,800 10,914 12,085 12,858 14,050 1,653 2,041 2,232 2,571 3,060 Compact disc players 850 1,384 2,490 2,237 2,338 264 356 514 512 511 Tape decks 908 1,508 1,458 1,457 1,542 176 284 282 283 289 Portable tape equipment 27,626 30,635 30,753 29,556 31,085 1,333 1,449 1,442 1,372 1,452 Radios 27,528 29,896 30,678 27,252 28,371 808 845 818 761 815 Headphones 3,167 3,425 3,534 3,477 3,755 134 140 149 146 160 Cartridges 3,047 2,795 2,539 1,803 1,533 94 86 78 58 42 Mobile electronics: ID 4 cassette/radio combo 4,030 3,989 4,053 4,256 4,098 789 814 848 905 865 Radios only 867 757 687 664 551 81 65 59 58 49 Car speakers (in pairs) 15,162 15,010 16,241 17,540 18,294 979 942 993 1,070 1,104 Radar detectors 1,227 1,688 1,834 1,953 2,051 187 263 277 295 341 Cellular telephones (NA) 265 331 700 1,081 (NA) 423 509 578 667 Auto security systems (NA) 1,028 1,371 1,759 2,023 (NA) 257 308 358 360 Home office: Electronic typewriters 850 2,038 2,186 2,481 2,580 185 458 533 672 740 Personal computers 4,025 3,075 3,598 4,192 4,737 (NA) 2,983 3,313 3,810 4,694 Facsimile machines (NA) 181 525 900 1,400 (NA) 584 1,335 1,335 1,540 Blank floppy disks. 205,063 425,000 545,403 651,757 706,505 (NA) 680 764 878 883 Satellite earth stations 630 255 252 277 294 1,386 513 508 624 657 Telephone equipment: Corded telephones 22,403 23,768 21,900 20,805 20,493 983 1,006 840 808 798 Cordless telephones 4,076 4,279 5,450 8,000 9,200 380 410 455 680 796 Telephone answering equip- ment 3,306 4,856 7,332 10,100 12,160 371 535 654 873 986 NA Not available. 1 6.5 cu. ft. and over. 2 10 cu. ft. and over. 3 Includes others not shown separately. 4 ID=in dash. Source: Dealerscope Merchandising, Philadelphia, PA, 68th Annual Statistical and Marketing Report. 630 Transportation-Air and Water No. 1078. On-Time Flight Arrivals and Departures at Major U.S. Airports: 1989 and 1990 No. 1080 [Calendar year data. [In DOT percent. reporting rule effective September 1987. All U.S. airlines with one percent or more of total U.S. domestic 15 minutes after airline Quarterly, based on gate arrival and departure times for domestic scheduled operations of major scheduled U.S. airlines, per pounds of payload cap U.S. Regional Carriers passenger scheduled time shown in the carrier's computerized reservation system. Cancelled and diverted flights are considered of the Excludes revenues are required to report on-time data. A flight is considered on time if it operated less than late. the ITEM flight operations delayed/cancelled due to aircraft mechanical problems reported on FAA maintenance records (4-5% report- ing airlines' scheduled operations). See source for data on individual airlines] Passenger carriers of Passengers enplaned ON-TIME ARRIVALS ON-TIME DEPARTURES Average passengers Revenue passenger 1989 1990 1989 1990 Average RPMs per C. AIRPORT 1st 2d 3d 4th 1st 2d 1st 2d 3d 4th 1st 2d Airports served Average trip length qtr. qtr. qtr. qtr. qtr. qtr. qtr. qtr. qtr. qtr. qtr. qtr. Passenger aircraft op 73.9 78.3 77.0 75.9 75.9 81.0 80.6 84.9 83.7 81.8 81.9 88.2 Average seating capa Sept Total, all airports Fleet flying hours Total, 30 major airports 72.8 77.4 75.7 74.9 74.8 80.0 79.0 83.4 81.5 80.1 80.2 87.0 Average annual utiliz 78.8 69.8 85.2 85.9 76.5 1 Adjusted to ex 83.3 85.2 83.2 88.6 Atlanta, Hartsfield International 79.9 80.7 79.2 Source: Regiona Baltimore/Washington International 72.4 71.4 69.6 71.9 77.5 83.4 74.6 74.3 73.6 76.1 82.9 89.2 79.4 75.6 70.2 72.5 68.1 78.2 83.0 81.7 77.2 77.9 75.8 87.1 Boston, Logan International Charlotte, Douglas 67.5 70.4 66.0 71.4 78.7 87.9 68.0 69.8 65.9 71.5 80.2 90.6 73.2 76.2 74.2 82.1 Chicago, O'Hare 60.8 70.4 67.1 72.0 69.2 74.7 68.7 77.4 Dallas/Ft.Worth International 72.5 80.3 86.0 84.4 74.8 78.1 76.4 84.5 89.8 87.1 78.3 85.1 [As of Dec. 31 Denver, Stapleton International 69.0 79.3 81.2 77.8 72.1 76.8 76.1 85.8 84.5 83.0 77.5 85.0 81.4 73.8 76.2 75.6 84.4 84.9 86.0 82.5 81.9 80.1 89.7 Detroit, Metro Wayne 79.8 76.5 80.4 76.8 82.2 83.0 85.4 81.2 84.0 82.4 84.7 85.5 89.4 ITE Dulles International 77.8 81.6 86.1 77.8 73.5 79.9 83.2 86.9 89.2 84.1 82.7 87.4 Houston Intercontinental Kansas City International 73.6 79.4 76.3 75.3 76.6 79.8 82.4 87.2 85.6 82.1 83.6 88.5 90.1 85.6 85.6 91.3 Airports in operation Las Vegas, McCarran International 78.1 85.3 84.6 79.6 80.9 85.5 84.5 91.4 Los Angeles International 73.1 77.7 76.1 75.1 78.4 78.1 82.3 85.6 80.9 80.5 84.1 88.0 Heliports 80.6 84.6 79.8 80.4 84.8 89.1 85.9 88.7 86.8 86.0 86.1 91.0 Public Memphis International 76.8 84.3 80.7 81.2 80.8 82.6 82.9 88.9 Private Miami International 75.3 73.0 72.2 73.9 Minneapolis/St. Paul International 77.9 83.8 79.5 77.4 81.4 79.7 81.6 88.0 85.6 82.4 83.1 85.4 Airports with runway 73.1 71.3 67.5 71.6 71.8 74.3 78.1 79.3 76.8 78.5 80.0 85.0 Airports with paved Newark International New York, Kennedy International 72.1 71.3 68.9 72.1 73.3 75.3 76.4 74.2 70.6 73.8 79.3 81.2 Miles (nautical) of F Airport Improvemen 73.5 69.3 64.6 67.0 68.4 76.7 82.3 80.9 77.2 75.5 77.8 85.3 New York, LaGuardia Orlando International 75.0 76.8 74.4 72.9 73.2 81.3 83.2 85.6 85.3 84.6 83.5 90.7 Total civil aircraft Active aircraft Philadelphia International 72.9 76.3 70.5 67.6 70.0 75.9 80.1 82.6 77.1 71.4 75.7 84.3 Air carriers, tot 87.3 88.0 78.0 79.9 88.4 Phoenix, Sky Harbor International 74.2 84.4 84.2 72.5 77.7 84.5 77.6 General aviatic Pittsburgh, Greater International 76.8 78.2 72.4 67.9 76.7 83.0 79.2 80.2 70.8 66.4 76.7 85.9 Fixed-wing a 70.0 81.5 82.8 81.2 80.7 81.3 74.8 85.9 86.7 82.4 83.5 85.6 St. Louis, Lambert. Multi-engir 80.5 80.4 84.5 79.6 90.7 89.6 85.4 84.7 91.6 Salt Lake City International 72.6 83.9 84.8 Single-engin San Diego International, Lindbergh 71.9 79.7 77.2 74.4 75.7 79.0 80.1 85.4 81.2 80.2 82.9 87.5 4-place ar 61.6 70.3 66.2 65.4 73.8 69.6 75.9 82.3 77.8 78.0 82.5 84.0 San Francisco International 3-place ar Seattle-Tacoma International 70.4 77.2 75.4 67.6 69.9 74.3 81.1 87.4 82.0 79.6 82.0 86.9 Rotorcraft 91.0 75.0 77.0 74.6 72.7 74.6 82.3 83.3 84.4 84.8 83.7 84.4 Balloons, bli Tampa International Washington National 76.6 75.3 74.6 75.4 79.4 83.5 85.8 84.2 83.6 80.2 84.2 89.1 Airman certificates Pilot Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Office of Consumer Affairs, Air Travel Consumer Report, monthly. Held by wome Airline transpo Commercial No. 1079. Consumer Complaints Against U.S. Airlines: 1987 to 1990 Private Student 8 [Calendar year data, except as indicated. See source for data on individual airlines] Nonpilot Ground techn PERCENT DISTRIBUTION RANK FAA employees: T COMPLAINTS Air traffic contro 1990, 1990, Full performa COMPLAINT CATEGORY 1990, 1987 1988 1989 Jan.- 1987 1988 1989 Jan.- 1987 1988 1989 Jan.- Development June June Assistants June Traffic mana 40,985 21,493 10,553 4,353 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 (X) (X) (X) (X) Electronic tech Total 18,019 8,831 1,787 44.0 41.1 39.0 41.1 1 1 1 1 Aviation safety Flight problems 4,111 1,702 767 18.1 18.3 16.1 17.6 2 2 2 2 Engineers Baggage 7,438 3,938 2 2,120 1,002 376 9.5 9.9 9.5 8.6 3 3 4 4 Other Customer service 3,888 3,313 1,667 1,023 445 8.1 7.8 9.7 10.2 4 4 3 3 General aviation: Refunds 6 6 Hours flown 3 2,122 1,353 607 235 5.2 6.3 5.8 5.4 6 6 Oversales Fuel consumed Reservations/ticketing/ boarding 821 297 6.0 6.7 7.8 6.8 5 5 5 5 Gasoline 1,445 14 2,458 888 546 232 47 2.2 2.5 2.2 1.1 8 7 8 9 Jet fuel Smoking 7 8 7 7 5 937 455 341 157 2.3 2.1 3.2 3.6 Fares Advertising 344 141 89 50 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.1 9 9 9 8 NA Not ava 101 35 19 2 0.2 0.2 0.2 10 11 11 11 military airports W Credit 9 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 11 10 10 10 under control of Tours 90 37 22 2 1,387 925 584 181 3.4 4.3 5.5 4.2 (X) (X) (X) (X) Fiscal year data Other funds for the Air meals or cabin service, treatment of delayed passengers. 3 All bumping problems, whether or not airline complied 5 Incorrect or Represents zero. X Not applicable. 1 Cancellations, delays etc. from schedule. 2 Unhelpful employees, inadequate with DOT Improvement Ac section 22. certificate and a regulations. 4 Errors in reservations and ticketing; problems in making reservations and obtaining tickets. shown separate incomplete information about fares, discount fare conditions and availability, etc. riggers, and grou Source: U.S. Dept. of Transportation, Office of Consumer Affairs, Air Travel Consumer Report, monthly. include retired supervisors, and in-flight service U.S. Bureau of naphtha-type je Source: Exc data. Includes C P01 NOVEMBER 1991 AIR TRAVEL CONSUMER REPORT TABLE 1A. OVERALL AND CARRIER PERCENTAGE OF REPORTED FLIGHT OPERATIONS ARRIVING ON TIME RANK, BY KONTH, QUARTER, AND DATA BASE TO DATE CARRIER 4TH QUARTER 1ST QUARTER 2ND QUARTER 3RD QUARTER OCT-DEC so JAN-MAR 91 APR-JUN 91 JUL-SEP It SEP 91 OCT 91 % RANK NOV 91 % RANK DEC00-NOV91 12 MONTHS DATA BASE TO DATI % RANK % RANK SEP 87-NDV 91 % RANK % RANK % RANK % RANK % RANK ALASKA 75.2 (10) 60.1 (9) 89.5 (1) 87.8 (4) 91.1 AMERICA WEST (2) 86.9 79.2 (5) (5) 78.8 78.4 (10) (8) 83.8 87.7 (3) (4) 80.4 87.1 (5) (S) 50.8 AMERICAN (4) 88.0 77.0 (3) (9) 90.0 82.1 (1) (4) 83.5 87.2 (4) (5) 84.4 $4.9 (8) (1) CONTINENTAL 05.8 (11) 79.7 (12) DELTA 77.2 78.4 (B) (7) 77.2 78.8 (7) (8) 81.7 80.9 (10) (11) 83.8 (8) 87.2 (to) 83.1 (7) 81.0 82.0 (8) (6) 80.4 82.5 (9) (8) 78.7 81.4 (10) (4) 83.0 (11) EASTERN # 85.7 (12) 82.8 81.0 (9) (4) 91.8 (7) -- 79.8 (10) 79.0 : (8) -- : MEDWAY ** -- -- ---- -- 72.5 (8) 88.3 71.0 (13) (2) 79.5 83.1 (3) (7) 90.4 NORTHWEST (5) 87.0 (4)* ---- 82.5 -- (3) 82.9 (2) 87.8 82.8 (7) (3) 90.0 02 5 (2) (3) $1.1 PAM AMERICAN (3) 38.3 (2) 85.6 (1) 79.9 82.8 (9) (3) 85,5 85.1 (7) (1) 82.2 80.2 (12) (6) 88.3 SOUTHNEST (7) $4.4 (6) 74.9 (11) 83.1 72.1 (11) (4) 83.2 84.1 (8) (5) 78.8 91.2 (1) (9) 93.5 TWA (1) 88.9 73.7 (1) (12) 89.5 70.1 (12) (2) 52.9 $2.1 (9) (6) 83.3 92.9 (9) (2) 80.4 UNITED (8) 90.8 (11) 78.7 (8) 83.0 72.3 (5) (10) 77.6 77.9 (12) (12) 77.2 83.1 (10) (12) 87.2 USAIR (9) 81.1 (10) 83.3 (2) 83.5 78.1 (11) (1) 77.8 83.0 (8) (ff) 75.9 84.3 (7) (13) 87.3 (8) 83.0 (8) 01-21-92 04:58 PM FROM DOT GOV'T T AFFAIRS 85.5 (3) $4.0 (2) 78.5 TOTAL (11) 79.1 78.5 84.1 85.2 87.9 $3.4 82.7 81.5 79.2 * EASTERN INCLUDE AIR EASTERN'S LINES DATA CEASED THROUGH OPERATIONS DECEMBER ON JANUARY 31, 1990. 19, 1991; THE ON-TIME PERFORMANCE STATISTICS ** ON MIDWAY NOVEMBER AIRLINES 14, BEGAN 1991. REPORTING ITS FLIGHT DATA ON JANUARY 1, 1991; CARRIER CEASED OPERATIONS Post-it™ brand fax transmittal memo 7671 # of pages / The Doug Chia From CARMEN RIVERA Co. Co. DOT Dept. Phone 202.366.5946 Fax # 202-456-6218 Fax 202-366-7907 130C-11 Air Travel US Department of Transpor lation Consumer Report Jr- dream H I Issued: September 1991 Includes data for the following FLIGHT DELAYS including year - long recent issue Need more MISHANDLED BAGG OVERSALES CONSUMER COMPL Office of Consumer Aflairs S INTRODUCTION The Air Travel Consumer Report is a monthly product of the Department of Transportation's Office of Consumer Affairs. The report is designed to assist consumers with information on the quality of services provided by the airlines. The report is divided into four sections. These sections deal with flight delays, mishandled baggage, oversales and consumer complaints. Each section of the report is preceded by a brief explanation of how to read and understand the information provided. The report normally is released by the end of the first week of each month. If you are interested in obtaining a single copy, write to the Office of Consumer Affairs, U.S. Department of Transportation, 400 7th Street, S.W., Room 10405, Washington, DC 20590. FLIGHT DELAYS This section provides information about airline on-time performance and flight delays. It is based on data filed by airlines each month Tables 3 and 4 provide information by airport and time of day. with the Department of Transportation as required by 14 CFR Part Table 5 is a list of the most frequently delayed flights, showing the percentage of each flight's operations that were late that month and 234 of DOT's regulations. It covers nonstop scheduled-service flights between points within the United States (including territories) by the the average and median number of minutes the flight was late. The flights with the highest percentage of large operations are listed first 12 largest U.S. air carriers, i.e., those with at least one percent of total domestic scheduled-service passenger revenues. These airlines in Table 5; where percentages are identical, flights are listed alphabetically by carrier code. Table 6, like Tables 1, IA, and 2 account for more than 90 percent of domestic operating revenues. presents data by carrier, but lists the carriers in rank order from worst to best based on the number of flights which were late 70% of The rule requires carriers to report on operations to and from the 31 the time or more. largest U.S. airports (those with at least one percent of the nation's total domestic scheduled-service passenger enplanements). However, all 12 airlines have voluntarily provided data for their Tables 3, 4. and 5 contain information on the time of day that a flight operated. All times are local. A 10:50 a.m. departure from Atlanta is entire domestic systems, and that Information is included in this 10:50 a.m. Atlanta time; if that-flight arrived in Dallas at 11:45 a.m., report. that is 11:45 a.m. Dallas time. If a flight's scheduled operating time changed during the month, Table 5 shows the time that was in effect A flight is counted as "on time" if it operated less than 15 minutes for the last flight operation performed that month. after the scheduled time shown in the carriers' Computerized Reservations Systems. All tables in this report except Table 4 are based on gate arrival times; Table 4 is based on gate departure times. This report provides summary information; except for the few flights listed in Table 5, it does not show the on-time record of individual Cancelled and diverted operations are counted as late. Because of our concern that the rule not penalize carriers for conscientious flights. A printout showing the performance of each specific flight safety practices, a delay is not reported to DOT if it results from a reported to DOT is available for inspection in the Reports Reference Room (room 4201) of the Office of Airline Statistics at DOTs mechanical problem that is required to be reported to the Federal Aviation Administration. headquarters in Washington, D.C. Copies of this printout and computer tapes containing data for all reported flight operations are As indicated above, a carrier may voluntarily file data for its entire available for purchase from the Transportation Systems Center in domestic system. Tables 2. 3. and 4 are limited to the 31 required or Cambridge, Massachusetts. The Department cannot respond to "reportable" airports; Tables 5 and 6 contain data on flights to/from inquiries about the performance of individual flights. all airports that were reported. Table I has one column for the 31 "reportable" airports and another for all of the airports reported; see However, information on the performance of specific flights is footnote C for additional explanation. displayed on the Computerized Reservations Systems used by most airlines and travel agencies. Each of the reporting carriers' flights Tables I through 4 display percentages of flight operations that has a one-digit code between 0 and 9 representing that flight's were on time, while Tables 5 and 6 show service that was late. percentage of on-time operations for the latest reported month. For Tables 1. 1A, and 2 present data by carrier; airlines are ranked by example, "8" means that flight arrived on time (within 15 minutes) performance in Table I and are listed in alphabetical order by between 80% and 89.9% of the time during the latest reported carrier code in Table 2 (see Appendix for codes). Beginning with the month. As with the data reported to DOT, the figures do not include February 1988 report, Table 1A shows carrier rankings by month delays caused by mechanical problems reported to the FAA. and time-series data on the percentage of flight operations that arrived on time. JULY 1991 AIR TRAVEL CONSUMER REPORT TABLE 1. OVERALL PERCENTAGE OF REPORTED FLIGHT OPERATIONS ARRIVING ON TIME BY CARRIER AT 31 REPORTABLE AIRPORTS B/ AT ALL REPORTED AIRPORTS C/ NUMBER OF PERCENT OF NUMBER OF PERCENT OF AIRPORTS ARRIVALS AIRPORTS ARRIVALS CARRIER A/ REPORTED ON TIME D/ REPORTED ON TIME D/ SOUTHWEST S/ 9 90.0 34 91.2 MIDWAY AIRLINES S/ 17 88.2 28 90.8 NORTHWEST S/ 29 89.7 102 90.0 ALASKA S/ 5 88.6 31 88.8 AMERICA WEST S/ 20 86.6 52 87.7 AMERICAN S/ 31 84.1 116 85.1 USAIR S/ 30 82.3 118 83.0 UNITED S/ 31 82.1 118 82.6 DELTA S/ 31 81.2 133 82.0 CONTINENTAL S/ 27 79.9 93 81.7 TWA S/ 29 80.1 71 80.2 PAN AMERICAN S/ 21 80.4 31 80.0 TOTAL 83.4 84.5 JULY 1991 AIR TRAVEL CONSUMER REPORT TABLE 1A. OVERALL PERCENTAGE OF REPORTED FLIGHT OPERATIONS ARRIVING ON TIME AND CARRIER RANK, BY MONTH, QUARTER, AND DATA BASE TO DATE 3RD QUARTER 4TH QUARTER 1ST QUARTER 2ND QUARTER 12 MONTHS DATA BASE TO DATE CARRIER JUL-SEP no OCT-DEC 90 JAN-MAR 91 APR-JUN 91 MAY 91 JUN 91 JUL 91 AUG90-JUL91 SEP 87-JUL 91 % RANK % RANK % RANK % RANK % RANK % RANK % RANK % RANK % RANK ALASKA 80.2 (9) 75.2 (10) 80.1 (5) 89.5 (1) 90.6 (1) 89.0 (4) 88.8 (4) 81.8 (7) 80.0 (5) AMERICA WEST 87.1 (1) 79.2 (5) 76.6 (8) 87.7 (4) 87.7 (3) 89.7 (3) 87.7 (5) 82.5 (5) 84.1 (1) AMERICAN 83.6 (3) 77.0 (9) 82.1 (4) 87.2 (5) 86.4 (6) 88.1 (5) 85.1 (6) 82.6 (4) 81.3 (3) CONTINENTAL 79.2 (10) 78.4 (7) 78.8 (6) 80.9 (11) 81.8 (10) 81.4 (12) 81.7 (10) 79.9 (9) 78.3 (10) DELTA 78.1 (12) 77.2 (8) 77.2 (7) 81.7 (10) 81.9 (9) 82.3 (9) 82.0 (9) 79.0 (11) 78.6 (8) EASTERN * 82.7 (4) 81.0 (4) ---- -- ---- -- -- -- ---- -- 81.8 (6) 79.5 (7) MIDWAY ** ---- -- ---- -- 72.5 (9) 88.3 (2) 87.7 (2) 92.6 (1) 90.8 (2) 81.2 (8) 81.2 (4) NORTHWEST 82.5 (6) 82.5 (3) 82.9 (2) 87.8 (3) 86.9 (5) 90.1 (2) 90.0 (3) 84.6 (1) 79.5 (6) PAN AMERICAN 82.5 (5) 85.6 (1) 82.8 (3) 85.1 (7) 87.5 (4) 83.6 (8) BO.O ( 12 ) 84.1 (2) 78.5 (9) SOUTHWEST 84.4 (2) 74.9 (11) 72.1 (11) 84.1 (8) 84.1 (8) 88.0 (6) 91.2 (1) 79.5 (10) 82.1 (2) TWA 78.9 (11) 73.7 (12) 70.1 (12) 82.1 (9) 80.0 (11) 81.6 (11) 80.2 (11) 76.5 (13) 76.7 (12) UNITED 20.4 (8) 78.7 (6) 72.3 (10) 77.9 (12) 77.0 (12) 81.9 (10) 82.6 (8) 77.6 (12) 75.4 (13) USAIR 81.2 (7) 83.3 (2) 83.5 (1) 86.0 (6) 84.3 (7) 85.3 (7) 83.0 (7) 83.6 (3) 77.9 (11) TOTAL 81.3 79.1 78.5 84.1 83.5 85.3 84.5 81.0 78.7 * EASTERN AIR LINES CEASED OPERATIONS ON JANUARY 19, 1991; THE ON-TIME PERFORMANCE STATISTICS INCLUDE EASTERN'S DATA THROUGH DECEMBER 31, 1990. ** MIDWAY AIRLINES BEGAN REPORTING ITS FLIGHT DATA ON JANUARY 1, 1991. JULY 1991 AIR TRAVEL CONSUMER REPORT TABLE 2. NUMBER OF REPORTED FLIGHT ARRIVALS AND PERCENTAGE ARRIVING ON TIME D/ BY CARRIER AND AIRPORT (REPORTABLE AIRPORTS ONLY) ARRIVAL AIRPORT ATL BOS BWI CLT DCA DEN DFW DTH w OF % ON w OF % ON w OF % ON # OF % ON w OF % ON w OF % ON # OF % ON m OF % ON CARRIER ARR. TIME ARR. TIME ARR. TIME ARR: TIME ARR. TIME ARR. TIME ARR. TIME ARR. TIME AA 628 82.6 754 82.4 437 79.9 114 84.2 677 82.4 416 81.0 11729 85.1 439 89.1 AS H/ H/ H/ H/ H/ H/ H/ H/ CO 602 84.2 815 83.3 125 92.8 H/ 572 75.9 4618 78.8 387 85.8 415 61.9 { DL 13450 79.2 1412 80.0 '5 77.9 172 78.5 742 79.2 506 78.5 7469 85.8 455 80.2 HP H/ 85 68.2 . 89 67.4 H/ 60 85.0 168 88.7 206 85.4 H/ I ML 130 90.0 141 95.0 H/ H/ 156 90.4 92 85.9 139 91.4 236 89.8 NW 483 86.5 1002 82.1 174 88.5 H/ 1527 87.1 268 87.7 314 90.4 7648 93.9 PA 115 70.4 599 $0.3 38 57.9 58 81.0 626 86.6 61 82.0 88 85.2 177 83.1 TW 201 85.8 248 70.6 166 76.5 84 82.1 369 78.9 240 74.6 271 78.2 208 81.3 UA 341 79.2 612 81.0 202 78.7 144 75.7 386 87.3 5386 83.6 365 84.7 311 88.8 us 522 78.2 2051 84.2 3468 85.1 10026 82.8 2137 86.2 153 73.9 262 77.1 483 82.6 WN H/ H/ H/ H/ H/ H/ H/ 180 90.6 TOTAL 16472 79.8 7720 82.7 5034 83.4 10598 82.6 7252 84.3 41908 81.3 21230 85.3 10532 91.3 JULY 1991 AIR TRAVEL CONSUMER REPORT TABLE 2. NUMBER OF REPORTED FLIGHT ARRIVALS AND PERCENTAGE ARRIVING ON TIME D/ BY CARRIER AND AIRPORT (REPORTABLE AIRPORTS ONLY) ARRIVAL AIRPORT EWR IAD IAH JFK LAS LAX LGA NCI # OF % ON , OF % ON , OF % ON 1 OF % ON N OF % ON n OF % ON / OF % ON # OF % ON CARRIER ARR. TIME ARR. TIME ARR. TIME ARR. TIME ARR. TIME ARR. TIME ARR. TIME ARR. TIME AA 745 79.6 226 82.3 528 87.1 766 75.8 422 87.2 1553 81.8 1006 76.3 407 $0.8 AS H/ H/ H/ H/ H/ 589 85.9 H/ H/ 8 4801 76.1 141 83.0 5874 84.2 H/ 299 86.0 769 71.5 1324 77.2 372 85.5 DL 675 75.7 205 83.4 48: 78.8 183 74.9 662 83.5 2734 74.6 1051 75.0 514 87.7 HP ⑉ 69.3 H/ 102 88.2 :86 92.8 4119 87.1 849 82.4 24 83.3 204 88.2 ML H/ H/ H/ H/ 59 94.3 145 $6.6 247 82.2 182 94.4 NW 808 82.9 175 33.1 56 $2.8 28 39.3 238 84.0 677 80.5 664 84.0 319 93.4 PA 84 57.1 H/ 116 83.6 1028 76.2 H/ 288 80.6 1038 88.3 28 82.1 TW 159 83.5 125 77.6 H/ 1220 71.7 147 77.6 380 84.5 472 75.6 275 80.7 UA - 815 77.0 2089 82.9 173 80.9 265 75.1 324 78.4 3079 77.5 687 78.7 293 85.0 US 1705 80.9 237 91.1 265 73.0 357 74.5 455 79.3 1013 72.8 2328 80.8 871 87.1 MN H/ H/ 153 80.2 H/ 1411 93.1 1193 88.3 H/ 686 95.3 TOTAL 9684 77.3 4098 83.7 7548 83.9 4033 74.5 8138 86.8 13869 78.2 8841 79.8 4131 83.0 ! JULY 1991 AIR TRAVEL CONSUMER REPORT TABLE 2. NUMBER OF REPORTED FLIGHT ARRIVALS AND PERCENTAGE ARRIVING ON TIME D/ BY CARRIER AND AIRPORT (REPORTABLE AIRPORTS ONLY) ARRIVAL AIRPORT NCO MEN MIA MSP ORD PHL PHX PIT w OF % ON w OF % ON a OF % ON w OF % ON w OF CARRIER % ON n OF % ON # OF % ON ARR. # OF TIME % ON ARR. TIME ARR. TIME ARR. TIME ARR. TIME ARR. TIME ARR. TIME ARR. TIME AA 472 80.3 204 85.8 1847 75.3 308 86.0 8585 85.7 563 81.3 345 84.1 293 82.6 AS H/ H/ H/ H/ H/ H/ 240 97.1 H/ 8 460 75.0 H/ 465 74.0 249 84.7 583 81.5 252 82.1 232 84.9 187 77.5 DL 2493 79.5 594 85.4 883 73.5 337 84.3 841 81.7 604 79.8 719 89.8 239 87.0 HP H/ H/ H/ 115 87.1 202 81.7 H/ 5614 89.3 H/ ML 137 83.2 H/ 60 85.0 230 84.3 H/ 184 83.2 60 93.3 H/ NW 501 84.0 3733 $3.4 331 83.4 7346 89.7 805 87.8 403 87.3 348 92.2 174 91.4 PA 254 76.0 H/ 1360 75.7 30 70.0 59 81.4 H/ H/ H/ TW 337 72.4 H/ 236 70.3 199 77.9 310 85.8 222 63.5 234 76.5 206 82.5 UA 534 79.2 149 89.9 238 60.8 449 86.0 11502 86.9 461 79.0 343 83.1 113 76.1 us 1560 82.6 195 89.2 1149 78.4 176 80.7 532 81.6 4287 81.4 519 85.4 8966 84.9 $ H/ H/ N/ H/ H/ H/ 3436 89.9 H/ TOTAL 6748 79.9 4875 91.8 6287 75.4 9440 88.4 23419 86.0 6976 80.9 12090 88.9 10178 84.7 JULY 1991 AIR TRAVEL CONSUMER REPORT TABLE 2. NUMBER OF REPORTED FLIGHT ARRIVALS AND PERCENTAGE ARRIVING ON TIME D/ BY CARRIER AND AIRPORT (REPORTABLE AIRPORTS ONLY) ARRIVAL AIRPORT RDU SAN SEA SFO SLC STL TPA # OF % ON 1 OF % ON w OF % ON # OF % ON w OF % ON w OF % ON w OF % ON CARRIER ARR. TIME ARR. TIME ARR. TIME ARR. TIME ARR. TIME ARR. TIME ARR. TIME AA 3628 $8.6 628 87.1 495 85.1 612 79.6 300 89.0 396 83.8 373 72.1 AS H/ 223 87.4 2271 90.3 626 81.9 H/ H/ H/ 8 H/ 232 78.0 392 75.8 518 70.8 138 83.3 86 90.7 413 86.4 DL 415 84.8 584 82.9 753 76.5 1031 74.0 4742 88.0 293 84.0 936 81.9 HP H/ 487 87.1 283 79.9 471 73.5 194 93.3 129 76.7 H/ ML H/ H/ H/ H/ H/ 167 82.0 118 89.8 NW H! 191 89.0 732 83.5 479 81.6 88 87.5 357 88.5 390 87.4 PA H/ H/ H/ 143 76.2 29 62.1 H/ 135 63.0 TW 114 85.1 113 60.2 198 74.2 303 59.4 88 68.6 7806 85.9 329 73.3 UA 108 83.3 614 80.0 1794 82.2 5021 75.4 282 72.7 304 81.3 207 76.3 us 931 88.5 629 83.5 333 80.5 1212 72.4 H/ 222 83.8 1566 77.8 MN H/ 1323 89.4 H/ 524 77.8 H/ 1124 91.1 H/ TOTAL 4896 87.8 5022 84.9 7251 83.7 10940 75.2 5859 87.0 10884 86.1 4467 79.3 1 JULY 1991 AIR TRAVEL CONSUMER REPORT TABLE 3. PERCENTAGE OF ALL CARRIERS' REPORTED FLIGHT OPERATIONS ARRIVING ON TIME D/ BY AIRPORT AND TIME OF DAY (REPORTABLE AIRPORTS ONLY.) ARRIVAL AIRPORT SCHEDULED ARRIVAL TIME ATL BOS BWI CLT DCA DEN DFW DTW EWR IAD IAH JFK LAS LAX LGA ACI 600 - 659 AM J/ 79.3 89.7 97.8 J/ JI 96.4 94.4 79.6 80.8 96.8 77.8 100.0 95.8 J/ J/ 700 - 759 AM 90.5 $3.4 78.4 88.6 90.8 88.9 96.0 J/ 76.9 100.0 97.7 74.1 89.2 87.6 98.6 100.0 800 - 859 AM 94.2 92.6 89.5 78.8 89.5 87.6 94.2 97.6 87.8 91.6 93.2 97.3 95.2 87.8 88.2 95.0 900 - 959 AM 88.2 91.0 94.2 78.8 90.8 82.7 88.8 91.9 86.1 91.9 86.9 100.0 91.2 77.5 90.9 94.8 1000 - 1059 AM 86.5 $5.0 84.2 87.5 $3.3 76.2 93.6 91.1 89.8 84.4 92.8 90.6 88.1 82.8 87.1 94.4 1100 - 1159 AM 83.1 90.0 88.7 84.9 $0.5 85.8 85.9 95.9 91.4 93.3 88.6 J/ 93.7 77.9 89.3 $6.3 1200 - 1259 PM 83.3 89.0 94.4 92.6 91.8 85.8 89.4 95.8 86.1 91.1 87.2 96.8 82.2 77.6 91.2 91.1 100 - 159 PM 91.1 93.5 90.6 89.2 91.9 88.9 84.3 95.8 89.3 91.6 74.2 90.9 84.7 79.4 85.9 89.0 200 - 259 PM 84.1 88.6 92.8 88.6 86.4 85.1 83.6 94.9 82.1 87.7 82.9 88.9 82.8 79.5 85.7 89.5 300 , 359 PM 74.0 88.2 83.0 86.0 87.9 85.4 87.9 92.2 79.9 85.9 90.7 72.8 83.8 83.2 79.7 $0.3 400 - 459 PM 83.8 78.6 79.2 80.0 79.5 80.8 82.1 93.8 69.7 82.9 84.5 68.7 85.0 77.8 70.7 88.9 500 - 559 PM 75.6 74.5 79.8 73.4 78.5 75.9 82.4 90.4 66.8 81.3 80.3 59.4 87.3 86.6 71.8 90.1 600 - 659 PM 69.4 76.7 77.4 81.7 78.9 79.1 74.2 89.2 69.0 79.7 81.2 72.3 87.5 77.4 71.7 87.2 700 - 759 PM 74.6 70.9 75.6 79.5 78.4 74.9 79.7 85.6 61.0 72.5 76.5 76.3 91.2 74.3 70.4 79.6 800 - 859 PM 80.8 75.1 76.4 73.0 76.5 65.8 77.6 88.8 69.8 68.2 69.7 79.0 87.5 71.8 73.5 87.8 900 - 959 PM 75.4 71.8 69.2 75.6 75.2 75.0 80.4 85.2 71.1 72.5 78.7 82.7 85.2 63.2 88.8 78.9 1000 - 1059 PM 79.8 80.9 77.7 79.0 78.2 76.6 84.0 80.7 72.9 86.1 74.2 72.8 81.6 73.9 72.3 84.8 1100 - 559 AM 76.6 78.0 84.5 80.0 82.1 91.9 90.7 80.1 79.8 80.5 79.2 84.4 85.0 86.3 77.3 91.1 TOTAL. ALL ARRIVALS, BY AIRPORT 79.8 82.7 83.4 82.6 84.3 81.3 85.3 91.3 77.3 83.7 83.9 74.5 86.8 78.2 79.8 89.0 JULY 1991 AIR TRAVEL CONSUMER REPORT TABLE 3. PERCENTAGE OF ALL CARRIERS' REPORTED FLIGHT OPERATIONS ARRIVING ON TIME D/ BY AIRPORT AND TIME OF DAY (REPORTABLE APRPORTS ONLY) ARRIVAL AIRPORT SCHEDULED ARRIVAL TIME NCO NEM MIA MSP ORD PHL PHX PIT RDU SAN SEA SFO SLC STL TPA TOTAL 600 - 659 AM 63.3 J/ 88.4 85.6 94.3 86.9 97.9 91.2 J/ 70.0 88.5 J/ J/ 90.9 77.4 88.1 700 - 759 AM 97.7 97.1 96.2 95.8 94.5 83.9 95.2 93.7 100.0 90.9 96.6 94.2 63.9 98.4 96.3 92.4 800 - 859 AM 95.2 96.4 94.5 93.8 91.6 84.6 94.6 89.7 92.9 91.2 94.0 83.7 93.7 84.3 95.5 91.4 900 - 959 AM 92.4 91.8 94.8 95.8 91.5 87.9 91.4 80.7 94.5 91.9 96.9 84.0 86.7 90.9 93.9 88.2 1000 - 1059 AM 89.0 87.4 86.8 88.6 90.1 90.2 88.9 82.0 75.9 86.3 93.3 70.6 92.9 87.4 88.6 87.9 1100 - 1159 AM 85.1 88.3 78.5 93.4 92.7 95.2 90.8 92.7 83.9 92.4 76.4 67.1 91.5 86.9 86.5 86.8 1200 - 1259 PM 90.4 97.9 85.2 91.5 89.9 90.3 93.9 94.4 96.4 85.3 80.6 58.3 92.9 85.1 88.5 86.8 100 - 159 PM 90.7 95.6 81.3 87.7 92.1 86.6 88.1 90.8 92.3 80.3 79.8 70.0 89.0 90.0 83.3 87.8 200 - 259 PM 76.1 94.8 73.6 94.7 91.1 83.3 87.0 92.4 91.8 86.2 82.7 73.1 92.2 88.3 71.9 85.7 300 - 359 PM 74.0 88.9 72.7 90.2 84.4 84.3 89.8 87.8 95.6 81.2 81.7 81.2 87.6 90.9 78.1 83.9 400 - 459 PM 76.1 96.7 73.4 88.7 85.3 75.4 86.8 81.7 91.1 84.7 87.0 84.6 74.7 82.7 79.6 79.7 500 - 559 PM 72.0 86.8 64.9 86.6 80.1 73.2 83.4 80.1 83.9 85.4 84.0 80.8 88.1 82.2 77.9 79.3 800 - €59 PM 71.5 88.7 60.8 84.9 76.4 76.3 88.0 85.8 80.1 89.5 88.9 82.9 91.3 83.6 65.3 79.7 700 759 PM 72.6 83.4 65.9 91.3 75.6 68.7 84.9 76.8 82.2 80.7 83.5 78.1 87.1 84.2 62.3 78.0 800 - 859 PM 60.0 71.2 61.7 81.2 75.8 54.2 82.6 75.7 76.3 80.4 78.6 72.2 76.5 84.4 63.1 74.9 900 - 959 PM 71.7 82.5 67.7 84.0 79.0 72.8 87.5 79.5 76.0 84.9 83.2 70.5 62.1 83.8 73.7 76.1 1000 - 1059 PM 81.9 77.4 72.1 79.6 75.3 80.7 86.4 77.3 76.5 80.7 84.2 76.6 100.0 80.0 74.6 78.4 1100 - 559 AM 81.9 96.4 77.0 80.7 90.0 88.7 82.6 87.0 82.1 80.5 82.1 84.5 82.2 82.2 73.7 83.8 TOTAL ALL ARRIVALS, BY AIRPORT 79.9 91.8 75.4 88.4 86.0 80.9 88.9 84.7 87.8 84.9 83.7 75.2 87.0 86.1 79.3 83.4 JULY 1991 AIR TRAVEL CONSUMER REPORT TABLE 4. PERCENTAGE OF ALL CARRIERS' REPORTED FLIGHT OPERATIONS DEPARTING ON TIME E/ BY AIRPORT AND TIME OF DAY (REPORTABLE AIRPORTS ONLY) DEPARTURE AIRPORT SCHEDULED DEPARTURE TIME ATL BOS BWI CLT DCA DEN DFW DTW EWR IAD IAH JFK LAS LAX LGA MCI 600 - 659 AM 93.9 96.4 100.0 98.8 97.8 98.1 96.6 95.8 95.4 97.8 98.3 96.7 97.9 95.3 96.9 99.0 700 - 759 AM 95.3 92.8 97.3 96.5 95.0 95.5 98.3 95.5 93.7 98.7 95.6 92.8 96.3 94.6 93.9 98.9 800 - 859 AM 95.6 95.6 95.3 91.1 94.8 93.6 96.6 98.5 88.0 98.4 94.2 88.9 95.4 90.0 93.8 96.9 900 - 959 AM 91.5 93.6 92.8 87.6 94.2 92.4 95.4 94.8 87.5 92.2 92.6 94.2 91.2 84.4 92.7 94.9 1000 - 1059 AM 92.6 94.3 96.3 94.7 96.8 88.7 90.4 94.0 89.8 91.7 91.0 94.2 84.0 76.4 89.9 95.2 1100 - 1159 AM 89.3 97.1 J/ o 94.2 89.0 94.0 95.1 94.3 88.3 83.1 91.9 91.8 78.7 90.3 98.9 1200 - 1259 PM 91.9 92.3 91.9 9.6 91.9 89.2 91.8 94.0 94.6 93.8 92.4 93.1 93.0 79.2 92.5 95.3 100 - 159 PM 89.4 91.1 98.3 92.5 94.3 90.1 90.0 95.9 90.1 92.6 87.2 95.5 87.4 85.4 92.2 88.7 200 - 259 PM 89.0 93.4 92.1 90.3 91.0 86.8 91.0 91.1 88.5 88.0 85.1 88.6 87.2 82.7 87.6 89.2 300 - 359 PM 87.2 85.0 87.6 85.1 84.9 87.2 89.3 88.5 80.6 86.9 89.3 83.1 90.5 85.3 85.8 91.9 400 - 459 PM 71.3 86.1 85.0 82.9 83.8 81.7 87.9 89.8 81.3 90.5 89.5 70.1 86.7 87.4 84.5 92.8 500 - 559 PM 79.4 76.5 74.3 74.0 83.2 82.5 87.0 89.3 66.4 70.6 79.7 66.5 84.2 83.5 78.9 92.4 600 - 659 PM 74.3 78.1 94.4 74.8 81.1 79.9 84.0 90.1 70.6 82.9 83.2 47.8 86.5 86.1 72.7 92.2 700 - 759 PM 84.2 75.3 79.6 83.1 78.8 80.1 81.8 88.3 65.6 89.5 87.4 74.8 82.9 83.3 75.9 84.1 800 - 859 PM 81.4 76.6 82.6 84.1 80.9 75.9 84.6 83.5 67.8 77.0 80.6 80.0 86.7 82.3 74.0 92.6 900 - 959 PM 95.5 90.4 82.2 77.9 79.9 J/ 83.9 83.8 69.6 73.9 95.8 86.1 92.5 81.6 77.6 100.0 1000 - 1059 PM 79.5 75.9 64.4 J/ J/ 96.7 86.3 J/ 78.9 J/ 83.7 78.8 89.8 85.9 70.9 72.2 1100 - 559 AM 82.3 80.6 100.0 100.0 J/ 100.0 90.5 96.2 100.0 88.5 86.4 59.3 85.3 92.4 J/ 80.6 TOTAL ALL DEPARTURES, BY AIRPORT 86.0 88.2 88.8 86.5 89.1 86.3 90.2 91.5 83.0 87.6 87.6 74.7 88.7 85.5 86.7 93.3 JULY 1991 AIR TRAVEL CONSUMER REPORT TABLE 4. PERCENTAGE OF ALL CARRIERS' REPORTED FLIGHT OPERATIONS DEPARTING ON TIME E/ BY AIRPORT AND TIME OF DAY (REPORTABLE AIRPORTS ONLY) DEPARTURE AIRPORT SCHEDULED DEPARTURE TIME MCO MEM MIA MSP ORD PHL PHX PIT RDU SAN SEA SFO SI.C STL TPA TOTAL 600 - 659 AM 89.8 100.0 96.5 04.5 96.2 99.0 96.9 97.5 96.4 96.4 95.2 95.6 93.1 88.1 95.6 96.2 700 759 AM 96.6 99.1 95.1 93.0 94.4 95.9 94.6 94.1 97.0 95.5 90.1 96.5 93.5 95.1 95.7 95.0 800 859 AM 94.4 94.2 94.9 94.5 96.1 92.8 90.6 93.3 96.3 96.8 90.6 90.6 93.6 95.7 96.0 93.6 $00 959 AM 94.4 95.8 95.5 93.7 93.4 89.9 91.0 90.7 95.1 86.2 91.2 91.6 91.3 92.1 96.2 92.3 1000 1059 AM 95.3 90.3 94.0 94.9 92.5 89.6 87.5 92.3 94.5 76.6 90.5 88.3 90.7 91.8 95.0 90.6 1100 1159 AM 94.0 100.0 90.1 92.0 93.8 100.0 88.9 90.0 100.0 84.0 90.9 76.0 90.2 92.7 91.6 90.2 1200 1259 PM 88.4 91.7 90.1 91.5 92.6 81.5 89.5 87.1 100.0 88.0 80.4 75.4 92.5 87.3 92.4 89.3 100 - 159 PM 3.2 93.0 87.3 88.5 92.8 90.5 91.1 91.4 94.3 89.1 78.8 70.5 92.8 90.3 91.8 89.1 200 - 259 PM 82.1 95.2 82.2 92.0 91.4 83.1 82.8 91.4 91.7 86.6 82.7 75.1 93.7 92.9 80.9 88.6 300 - 359 PM 82.7 88.5 78.8 94.2 88.5 85.2 84.8 83.3 89.7 92.6 83.1 80.4 96.2 90.5 88.8 87.0 400 - 459 PM 90.0 98.3 82.4 94.5 87.1 80.1 87.3 83.6 95.6 81.4 91.0 83.7 88.9 89.1 95.1 84.8 500 . 559 PM 82.0 92.2 82.6 88.2 83.9 81.0 81.2 80.5 89.8 84.8 94.0 88.3 92.3 89.6 88.2 81.6 600 652 PM 81.3 95.2 81.4 85.4 81.1 83.9 83.4 79.8 77.2 86.0 83.9 84.5 93.3 84.5 90.5 81.0 700 759 PM 81.0 89.1 80.5 86.0 76.4 77.9 85.3 89.1 82.0 84.2 89.6 79.9 89.4 89.2 82.6 82.0 800 - 859 PM 76.6 86.9 89.3 87.6 80.3 80.1 84.7 79.3 84.3 79.8 77.9 74.1 J/ 86.4 76.9 81.6 900 $59 PM 71.2 J/ 78.9 87.0 74.1 J/ 83.3 77.1 88.6 91.4 73.1 76.9 77.3 85.2 90.6 79.9 1000 - 1059 PM 75.9 93.1 J/ 88.0 81.6 J/ 85.7 91.3 J/ 94.9 91.6 87.3 96 3 92.2 86.4 84.9 1100 - 559 AM 93.5 J/ 69.0 JI 91.4 100.0 94.7 J/ 83.3 98.9 92.1 95.7 91.1 J/ 98.2 89.6 TOTAL ALL DEPARTURES BY AIRPORT 87.3 92.8 87.5 90.4 88.9 86.9 88.3 86.4 90.9 88.6 87.4 83.6 89.8 89.8 91.2 87.8 DEPARTURES; DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE ON TIME OR LATE, DEPENDING ON ACTUAL DEPARTURE TIME. NOTE: DEPARTURES LESS THAN 15 MINUTES AFTER SCHEDULED DEPARTURE TIME ARE CONSIDERED ON TIME: CANCELLED FLIGHTS COUNT AS LATE JULY 1991 AIR TRAVEL CONSUMER REPORT TABLE 5. LIST OF REGULARLY SCHEDULED FLIGHTS I/ ARRIVING LATE BOX OF THE TIME OR MORE NUMBER OF PERCENTAGE. OF FLIGHT FLIGHT ORIGIN-DESTIN. SCHEDULED OPERATIONS OPERATIONS ARRIVING NO. OF MIN. LATE CARRIER NUMBER AIRPORTS DEPARTURE TIME REPORTED 15 MINUTES LATE OR MORE D/ AVERAGE MEDIAN PA 787 BOL-MIA 0745 17 100.00 PA 784 MIA-BOL 1855 17 100.00 TW 733 BWI-SFO 1755 30 96.67 101 101 TW 108 STL-PHL 1055 30 03.33 33 29 TW 721 STL-LAX 1837 26 92.31 49 46 DL 57 LAX-ANC 1050 23 86.90 20 20 DL 146 LAX-ATL 1220 31 83.87 27 27 US 151 SFO-LAX 1000 31 83.87 22 20 TW 805 JFK-HOU 1803 30 83.33 45 35 US 151 LAX-TPA 1155 30 83.33 28 24 TW 881 JFK-MSY 1810 29 82.76 55 41 DL 1088 DFW-ATL 1300 31 80.65 31 24 UA 378 SFO-MIA 1335 31 80.65 33 28 DL 100 LAX-ATL 0840 30 80.00 27 27 DL 1000 LAX-SFO 1000 30 80.00 33 37 UA 845 LAX-SFO 1100 30 80.00 30 20 us 777 CHS-CLT 1615 25 80.00 23 20 JULY 1991 AIR TRAVEL CONSUMER REPORT TABLE 6. NUMBER AND PERCENTAGE OF REGULARLY SCHEDULED FLIGHTS I/ ARRIVING LATE 70% OF THE TIME OR MORE NUMBER OF REGULARLY SCHEDULED FLIGHTS REGULARLY SCHEDULED FLIGHTS LATE 70% OF THE TIME OR MORE D/ FOR WHICH CARRIER CARRIER REPORTED DATA NUMBER PERCENTAGE PAN AMERICAN 251 6 2.4 TWA 727 12 1.7 DELTA 2480 19 0.8 CONTINENTAL 1299 9 0.7 USAIR 2558 12 0.5 MIDWAY AIRLINES 240 1 0.4 ALASKA 319 1 0.3 AMERICA WEST 712 2 0.3 UNITED 1931 6 0.3 AMERICAN 2180 2 0.1 SOUTHMEST 1173 1 0.1 NORTHWEST 1387 0.0 TOTAL 15257 71 0.5 FOOTNOTES FOR TABLES 1 THROUGH 6 (FLIGHT DELAYS) A See Appendix for list of carrier codes. B See Appendix for list of 31 airports for which data must be reported. Data include all reported domestic flight operations to the 31 reportable airports (e.g., Albany to Atlanta, Toledo to Boston). C All domestic airports for which carrier reported data. Data include all reported domestic flight operations to the 31 reportable airports and from those aiprorts to other destinations (e.g., Albany to Atlanta, and Atlanta to Albany): in addition, for carriers that reported data for their entire domestic systems, the data also include all reported domestic flight operations between non-required airports (e.g., Albany to Toledo). D "On time" means an arrival less than 15 minutes after scheduled arrival time; cancelled and diverted flights are not considered on-time arrivals. E "On time" means a departure less than 15 minutes after scheduled departure time; cancelled flights are not considered on-time departures; diverted flights may be on time or late departures, depending on actual departure time. F Incomplete data; percentage based on operations reported. G Carrier did not report useable data. H Carrier did not serve airport. I Regularly scheduled flights are those for which the carrier reported at least 15 operations for the month. J Blanks in any time interval in Tables 3. and 4 indicate no arrival operations (Table 3) or departure operations (Table 4) for domestic flights of the reporting carriers during that time period. Other carriers, including code-sharing partners, may operate during those periods. S Carrier reported data for entire domestic system. V Carrier reported data voluntarily. APPENDIX NOTE: The Department of Transportation has screened the reporting carriers' data for completeness and verified all arithmetic data elements computed by the carriers (e.g., length of delay). Individual flight operations records with incorrect calculations, erroneous city-pairs, or missing data elements were rejected and excluded from the data base; such rejected records accounted for less than 0.01% of the flight operations records submitted. Any errors in the data base with respect to basic flight data -- non- computed data elements such as flight numbers, scheduled and actual arrival/departure times, days of operation -- are the responsibility of the reporting carrier. Air Carriers Required to Report Data Airports Covered by the Rule to DOT and to CRS Vendors Atlanta. Hartsfield ATL AS Alaska Airlines Baltimore. Balt-Wash International BWI AA American Airlines Boston. Logan International BOS HP America West Airlines Charlotte. Douglas CLT CO Continental Airlines Chicago. O'Hare ORD DL Delta Air Lines Dallas-Fort Worth International DFW ML Midway Airlines Denver. Stapleton International DEN NW Northwest Airlines Detroit. Metro Wayne County DTW PA Pan American World Airways Houston Intercontinental IAH WN Southwest Airlines Kansas City International MCI TW Trans World Airlines Las Vegas. McCarran International LAS US USAir Los Angeles International LAX UA United Memphis International MEM Miami International MIA Minneapolis-St. Paul International MSP Newark International EWR New York. JFK International JFK New York. LaGuardia LGA Orlando International MCO Philadelphia International PHL Phoenix. Sky Harbor International PHX Pittsburgh. Greater International PIT Raleigh-Durham International ROU St. Louis. Lambert STL Salt Lake City International SLC San Diego Intl. Lindbergh Field SAN San Francisco International SPO Seattle-Tacoma International SEA Tampa International TPA Washington. Dulles International IAD Washington. National. DCA MISHANDLED BAGGAGE This section gives the rate of mishandled-baggage reports per 1,000 passengers by carrier and for the industry. The rate is based on the total number of reports each carrier received from passengers concerning lost, damaged, delayed or pilfered baggage. Each carrier uses a different system to track bag 10 problems and thus variations exist in what is reported to DOT. Some carriers have m.° F comprehensive reporting systems than others. In order to establish a uniform system from which useful comparisons can be made, reports filed with carriers about courtesy tracers, voluntary separations, carry-on baggage and double counts are not included in calculating the rate of complaint reports. This allows the data for each carrier to be listed in rank order, based on the net number of reports filed per 1,000 passengers. Like the data on flight delays in the previous section, these baggage statistics are filed with DOT by the 12 largest U.S. airlines on a monthly basis as required by 14 C.F.R. 234. The report is based on each carrier's systemwide domestic passenger service. OFFICE OF CONSUMER AFFAIRS U.S. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION JULY MISHANDLED BAGGAGE REPORTS FILED BY PASSENGERS JULY JULY 1991 1990 NET NO. OF REPORTS NET NO. OF REPORTS JULY '91 BAGGAGE PER 1,000 BAGGAGE RANK PER 1,000 U.S. AIRLINES REPORTS PASSENGERS PASSENGERS REPORTS PASSENGERS PASSENGERS 1 Midway 1,070 393,282 2.72 N.A. 2 American 27,583 6,785,896 4.06 35,811 6,224,380 5.75 3 Southwest 9,476 2,224,904 4.26 8,507 2,050,598 4.15 4 Northwest 16,130 3,446,827 4.68 22,745 3,435,309 6.62 5 America West 7,889 1,612,950 4.89 10,360 1,340,084 7.73 6 Pan Am 3,496 711,941 4.91 7 4,778 761,094 6.28 USAir 26,006 4,996,348 5.21 33,975 5,435,454 6.25 8 Continental 18,261 3,507,665 5.21 18,877 3,356,709 5.62 9 United 31,511 5,512,413 5.72 32,231 10 5,153,259 6.25 Trans World 10,748 1,737,117 6.19 16,979 2,018,614 8.41 11 Alaska 3,762 600,223 6.27 3,766 554,269 6.79 12 Delta 35,184 5,042,843 6.98 30,524 5,635,072 5.42 Total 191,116 36,572,409 5.23 218,553 35,964,842 6.08 NOTE: Passengers Enplaned --For the domestic system only. Net No. of Reports -- For the domestic system only. These are passenger reports of mishandled baggage, including those that did not subsequently result in claims for compensation. Some carriers have more comprehensive reporting systems than others. To allow fair comparison, reports about CO: rtesy tracers, voluntary separations, carry-on baggage, and double counts have been deducted from the total baggage reports submitted by those carriers offering such services. OVERSALES This section furnishes data on the number of passengers who hold confirmed reservations and are denied boarding ("bumped") from a flight because it is oversold. These figures include only passengers whose oversold flight departs without them; they do not include passengers affected by cancelled, delayed or diverted flights. The report includes U.S. airlines that have revenues over $100 million per year (see footnote on chart for details). It provides system data for scheduled passenger service on domestic flights and data on International flight segments that originate in the United States. Information is displayed for the latest available quarter requirement is found in 14 C.F.R. 250.10. and for the year to date, for the current period and for the same period in the previous year. The reporting These tables give information by carrier on the number of passengers bumped involuntarily and on the number who voluntarily gave up their seat on an oversold flight in exchange for compensation. Also shown is the rate of involuntary denied boardings per 10,000 passengers. This rate determines the order in which carriers are listed; the airline with the lowest rate appears first. The number and rate of Involuntary denied boardings include both passengers who received denied boarding compensation and passengers who did not quality for compensation because of one of the exceptions in the oversales rule. There are three exceptions: 1) passenger accommodated on another flight scheduled to arrive within one hour of the original flight; 2) passenger fails to comply with ticketing, check-in or reconfirmation procedures; and 3) aircraft of smaller capacity is substituted. Totals appear at the end of each table. The enplanement figures that are used to calculate the Involuntary denied boarding rate do not Include "shuttle" service on which reservations are not offered, nor do they include inbound international service, since the rule does not apply to these flights. OFFICE OF CONSUMER AFFAIRS U.S. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PASSENGERS DENIED BOARDING BY MAJOR/NATIONAL U.S. AIRLINES' Ranked by Involuntary Denied Boardings per 10,000 Passengers APRIL through JUNE 1991 1991 1990 APR-JUNE 1991 U.S. AIRLINES DENIED BOARDINGS (DB's) PASSENGERS INVOLUNTARY DB'S DENIED BOARDINGS (DB's) PASSENGERS INVOLUNTARY DO'S RANK VOLUNTARY INVOLUNTARY BOARDED PER 10,000 PSGRS VOLUNTARY INVOLUNTARY BOARDED PER 10,000 PSGRS MAJORS 1 American 22,159 330 20,659,855 0.16 26,066 89 18,845,734 0.05 2 Della 12,196 590 18,532,619 0.32 8,503 739 16,773,741 0.44 3 United 23,255 641 15,141,516 0.42 20,302 350 13,495,325 0.26 4 Northwest 14,670 550 9,348,283 0.59 12,876 735 9,235,853 0.80 5 USAN 11,681 896 14,065,420 0.64 22,978 2,461 15,676,410 1.57 6 Continental 16,975 1,368 9,343,753 1.48 12,126 1,365 8,661,415 1.58 7 America Weat 12,376 717 4,501,134 1.59 3,938 1,805 3,696,426 4.88 8 Pan Am 3,927 615 2,463,035 2.50 3,907 642 2,962,351 2.17 9 T W A 6,767 1,809 4,755,477 3.80 5,328 2,117 5,869,033 3.61 10 Southwest 8,380 2,199 5,456,290 4.03 6,138 2,405 5,204,140 4.62 TOTAL MAJORS 132,386 9,715 104,267,382 0.93 122,162 12,708 100,420,428 1.27 NATIONALS 1 We stair 622 o 796,458 0.00 0 1,009 580,204 17.39 2 American Trans AW o o 93,756 0.00 0 o 48,584 0.00 3 Tower o o 73,136 0.00 o o 49,256 0.00 4 Air Wisconsin 327 4 817,372 0.06 253 5 574,936 0.09 5 Midweet Express 34 2 190,236 0.11 54 11 206,458 0.53 6 Herizon 1 2 58,450 0.34 1 2 51,391 0.39 7 Hawallan 26 58 784,012 0.74 12 225 1,053,012 2.14 0 Alaoka 1,375 198 1,496,102 1.32 2,456 416 1,316,894 3.16 9 Midway 3,552 294 1,319,604 2.23 1,744 247 1,734,722 1.42 10 Markeir 59 35 117,769 2.97 71 38 129,331 2.94 11 Aloha 2 939 1,193,784 7.87 6 719 1,095,456 6.58 TOTAL NATIONALS 5,996 593 5,547,125 1.07 4,591 1,953 5,744,786 3.40 GRAND TOTAL 138,382 10,308 109,814,507 0.94 126,753 14,681 106,185,214 1.38 Airlines are grouped based on annual operating revenues. Airlines are classified as Majors If they exceed $1,000,000,000 operating revenue. Nationals are airlines with operating revenues from $100,000,000 through $1,000,000,000. U.S. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PASSENGERS DENIED BOARDING BY MAJOR/NATIONAL U.S. AIRLINES* Ranked by Involuntary Denied Boardings per 10,000 Passengers JANUARY through JUNE 1991 1991 1990 JAN-JUN 1991 U.S. AIRLINES DENIED BOARDINGS (DG's) PASSENGERS INVOLUNTARY DB'S DENIED BOARDINGS (DB'e) PASSENGERS INVOLUNTARY DB'S RANK VOLUNTARY INVOLUNTARY BOARDED PER 10,000 PSGRS VOLUNTARY INVOLUNTARY BOARDED PER 10,000 PSGRS MAJORS 1 American 48,300 895 37,458,376 0.24 55,299 297 36,046,983 0.08 2 Della 27,790 1,586 35,144,412 0.45 23,310 1,928 33,544,947 0.57 3 USAK 25,887 1,720 27,024,213 0.64 58,537 5,808 29,897,919 1.94 4 Northwest 25,174 1,135 17,347,372 0.65 27,691 1,783 17,856,329 1.00 5 United 38,812 1,839 27,441,846 0.67 45,418 937 26,015,522 0.26 6 Continental 29,596 2,719 17,633,772 1.54 25,394 2.774 16,958,749 1.84 7 America Weet 27,147 2,047 8,671,532 2.36 11,062 6,321 7,256,359 8.71 8 Pan Am 7,662 1,229 4,660,837 2.64 8,955 1,447 5,539,268 2.61 9 Southweet 15,052 3,864 10,690,853 3.61 15,960 5,589 9,633,328 5.80 10 TWA 14,668 3,598 9,112,185 3.95 10,536 3,622 11,002,677 3.29 TOTAL MAJORS 259,886 20,633 195,185,398 1.06 282,160 30,504 193,752,081 1.57 NATIONALS 1 Westelr 1,205 o 1,513,121 0.00 0 2,371 1,097,053 21.61 2 American Trans Air 0 o 178,429 0.00 o 0 92,937 0.00 3 Tower o o 122,968 0.00 0 0 102,455 0.00 4 Midweet Express 73 2 368,263 0.05 99 18 369,613 0.49 5 Air Wisconsin 535 7 1,091,242 0.06 454 13 1,076,608 0.12 6 Horizen 7 4 107,993 0.37 2 2 94,619 0.21 7 Hawaiian 26 58 784,012 0.74 26 496 2,097,292 2.36 8 Alaska 5,253 549 2,763,992 1.99 4,737 641 2,477,181 2.59 9 Markeir 137 70 202,734 3.45 150 83 219,368 3.78 10 Midway 8,637 1,049 2,738,334 3.83 6,472 664 3,389,895 1.96 11 Aloha 13 1,411 2,284,349 6.18 15 1,140 2,212,813 5.15 TOTAL NATIONALS 15,873 1,739 9,871,068 1.76 11,940 4,288 11,017,001 3.89 GRAND TOTAL 275,759 22,372 205,056,486 1.09 294,100 34,792 204,769,082 1.70 Airlines are grouped based on annual operating revenues. Airlines are classified as Majors W they exceed $1,000,000,000 operating revenue. Nationals are airlines with operating revenues from $100,000,000 through $1,000,000,000. CONSUMER COMPLAINTS This section summarizes aviation consumer complaints filed with the Department in writing, by telephone or In person. It does not Include safety complaints, which are handled by the Federal Aviation Administration. An explanation of each section of the report appears below: Summary. Page 1 gives the total number of complaints, and also breaks down complaints by industry groups (U.S. airlines, tour operators, etc.). As with most other sections of the report, figures for the current month are compared to the same month in the previous year. Complaint Categories. Page 2 ranks the categories of complaints (baggage, refunds, etc.). A detailed explanation of each category appears at the end of the Consumer Complaint section of the report. U.S. Airlines. Page 3 shows the number of complaints against individual U.S. airlines, listed alphabetically and broken down by complaint category. Incident Date. The next page shows the number of complaints against individual U.S. airlines, listed alphabetically and broken down by the time periods in which the incidents occurred. Companies Other Than U.S. Airlines. The next several pages break down complaints by complaint category for foreign airlines; tour operators, cargo companies, etc. Major/National Rankings: The last page ranks the largest U.S. airlines, the Majors and Nationals, according to the rate of complaints per 100,000 passengers. This ranking takes into account airline size when identifying the Major and National carriers against whom the most complaints have been filed. PAGE 1 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIR TRAVEL CONSUMER REPORT OFFICE OF CONSUMER AFFAIRS COMPLAINT CATEGORIES 8 JULY 1991 JULY 1990 RANKING SUB COMPLAINTS** CATEGORY SUB RANKING COMPLAINTS. CATEGORY FLIGHT PROBLEMS DELAYS 1 202 CANCELLATIONS 1 81 235 MISCONNECTIONS 62 87 29 75 BAGGAGE 50 128 REFUNDS 2 136 R 92 TICKETING/BOARDING 4 68 DISABLED 4 87 3 17 72 CUSTOMER SERVICE 18 5 78 FARES 5 65 6 42 OTHER 6 38 FREQUENT FLYER 7 40 8 22 21 OVERSALES 11 8 36 ADVERTISING 7 32 9 5 SMOKING 9 6 10 4 TOURS 11 3 11 4 CREDIT 10 6 12 1 12 1 COMPLAINT TOTAL 719 683 . A DETAILED EXPLANATION OF THE COMPLAINT CATEGORIES IS ATTACHED. : INCLUDES FIGURES FOR SUB-CATEGORIES. PAGE 2 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIR TRAVEL CONSUMER REPORT OFFICE OF CONSUMER AFFAIRS COMPLAINTS AGAINST U.S. AIRLINES BY COMPLAINT CATEGORY JULY 1991 U.S. AIRLINES FLIGHT OVER- TICKETING/ ALPHABETICAL PROBLEMS CUSTOMER SALES ADVER- BOARDING FARES REFUNDS BAGGAGE SERVICE SMOKING TISING CREDIT TOURS OTHER TOTAL AMERICA WEST AIRLINES 6 2 4 1 AMERICAN AIRLINES 6 3 33 2 o 5 1 18 o 0 11 1 4 28 CONTINENTAL AIRLINES 14 16 17 0 3 0 7 0 1 4 7 6 109 DELTA AIR LINES 8 6 12 0 1 0 5 0 0 2 1 7 50 EASTERN AIR LINES 5 9 o 0 0 0 o o 1 o 1 16 43 0 0 o 1 o 0 2 19 HAWAIIAN AIRLINES 6 o 1 MIDWAY AIRLINES o 0 4 2 2 0 o 0 o 1 o 0 NORTHWEST AIRLINES o 1 13 1 17 0 0 2 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 6 PAN AM EXPRESS 2 1 3 o 1 1 o o o PAN AMERICAN WORLD AIRWAYS o 1 1 29 2 8 o 0 4 0 o 2 0 2 0 4 5 8 1 o o o o 1 30 SOUTHWEST AIRLINES 2 o 2 TRANS WORLD AIRLINES 0 1 1 28 3 2 o o 7 0 o 6 0 9 UNITED AIRLINES 13 20 33 10 2 2 0 15 0 0 9 9 97 USAIR 8 21 12 17 3 o 4 2 o o 0 7 114 OTHER U.S. AIRLINES 0 4 14 2 4 0 0 5 0 0 1 o 3 25 7 5 0 0 0 0 2 41 JULY 1991 191 29 72 % OF TOTAL COMPLAINTS 37 71 98 31.0 76 4.7 2 11.7 5 1 2 6.0 32 616 11.5 15.9 12.3 0.3 0.8 0.2 0.3 5.2 JULY 1990 208 24 58 % OF TOTAL COMPLAINTS 32 42 38.4 105 51 4.4 2 10.3 5 1 1 5.9 15 542 7.7 19.4 9.4 0.4 0.9 0.2 0.2 2.8 AIRLINES COMPLAINTS ARE LISTED INDIVIDUALLY IF DOT RECEIVED 5 OR MORE COMPLAINTS AGAINST THEM DURING THE AGAINST U.S. AIRLINES ACCOUNTING FOR FEWER COMPLAINTS THAN THAT ARE INCLUDED UNDER 'OTHER REPORTING U.S. AIRLINES. PERIOD. PAGE 3 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION OFFICE OF CONSUMER AFFAIRS AIR TRAVEL CONSUMER REPORT COMPLAINTS AGAINST U.S. AIRLINES, BY INCIDENT DATE JULY 1991 INCI- UN- COMPS INCI- INCI- DENTS KNOWN RECD DENTS DENTS IN ALL INCI- U.S. AIRLINES IN IN IN PRIOR DENT ALPHABETICAL JUL JUL PERCENT JUN PERCENT MONTHS PERCENT DATE PERCENT AMERICA WEST AIRLINES 26 3 11.54 6 23.08 15 57.69 2 7.69 AMERICAN AIRLINES 109 30 27.52 36 33.03 37 33.94 6 5.50 CONTINENTAL AIRLINES 50 12 24.00 23 46.00 12 24.00 3 6.00 DELTA AIR LINES 43 7 16.28 17 39.53 14 32.56 5 11.63 EASTERN AIR LINES 19 1 5.26 o 0.00 7 36.84 11 57.89 HAWAIIAN AIRLINES 13 1 7.69 8 61.54 4 30.77 0 0.00 MIDWAY AIRLINES 6 3 50.00 1 16.67 2 33.33 0 0.00 NORTHWEST AIRLINES 29 12 41.38 10 34.48 3 10.34 4 13.79 PAN AM EXPRESS 5 3 60.00 2 40.00 0 0.00 0 PAN AMERICAN WORLD AIRWAY 0.00 30 4 13.33 8 26.67 13 43.33 5 16.87 SOUTHWEST AIRLINES 9 4 44.44 o 0.00 5 55.58 0 0.00 TRANS WORLD AIRLINES 97 25 25.77 22 22.68 44 45.36 8 6.19 UNITED AIRLINES 114 33 28.95 38 33.33 30 26.32 13 USAIR 11.40 25 9 36.00 10 40.00 5 20.00 1 4.00 OTHER U.S. AIRLINES 41 21 51.22 12 29.27 6 14.63 2 4.88 TOTALS 616 168 27.27 193 31.33 197 31.98 58 9.42 PRIOR YEAR'S TOTALS 542 174 32.10 147 27.12 202 37.27 19 3.51 AIRLINES ARE LISTED INDIVIDUALLY IF DOT RECEIVED 5 OR MORE COMPLAINTS AGAINST THEM DURING THE REPORTING PERIOD. COMPLAINTS AGAINST U.S. AIRLINES ACCOUNTING FOR FEWER COMPLAINTS THAN THAT ARE INCLUDED UNDER 'OTHER U.S. AIRLINES'. PAGE 4 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIR TRAVEL CONSUMER REPORT OFFICE OF CONSUMER AFFAIRS COMPANIES OTHER THAN U.S. AIRLINES BY COMPLAINT CATEGORY JULY 1991 FLIGHT OVER- TICKETING/ CUSTOMER. ADVER- PROBLEMS SALES BOARDING FARES REFUNDS BAGGAGE SERVICE SMOKING TISING CREDIT TOURS OTHER TOTAL FOREIGN AIRLINES OTHER FOREIGN AIRLINES 6 7 7 4 16 27 2 2 0 o 0 2 73 TOTAL 6 7 7 4 16 27 2 2 0 0 o 2 73 CARGO COMPANIES OTHER CARGO COMPANIES 0 0 0 0 o o 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 TOTAL o o o o 0 0 o 0 o o 0 1 1 TRAVEL AGENTS OTHER TRAVEL AGENTS o o 3 o 2 0 Q 0 o o 0 o 5 TOTAL o o 3 0 2 o 0 0 o 0 o o 5 TOUR OPERATORS OTHER TOUR OPERATORS 1 o 0 0 1 I 0 0 0 o 0 0 3 TOTAL 1 o o o 1 1 o 0 o 0 0 0 3 MISCELLANEOUS OTHER MISCELLANEOUS 4 0 5 1 2 2 0 0 o 0 2 5 21 TOTAL 4 o 5 1 2 2 0 0 o 0 2 5 21 COMPANIES ARE LISTED INDIVIDUALLY IF DOT RECEIVED o OR MORE COMPLAINTS AGAINST THEM DURING THE REPORTING PERIOD COMPLAINTS AGAINST COMPANIES ACCOUNTING FOR FEWER COMPLAINTS THAN THAT ARE INCLUDED UNDER 'OTHER FOREIGN AIRLINES 'OTHER CARGO COMPANIES', ETC. ' F PAGE 5 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIR TRAVEL CONSUMER REPORT OFFICE OF CONSUMER AFFAIRS CONSUMER COMPLAINTS SUMMARY JULY 1991 JULY 1990 COMPLAINTS OPINIONS COMPLIMENTS INFO REQUESTS COMPLAINTS OPINIONS COMPLIMENTS INFO REQUESTS U.S. AIRLINES 816 19 4 101 542 10 7 34 FOREIGN AIRLINES 73 1 o 19 82 o 1 9 CARGO COMPANIES 1 o o 2 2 o 0 0 TRAVEL AGENTS 5 1 o 2 4 o 0 7 TOUR OPERATORS 3 0 0 3 11 o 0 3 MISCELLANEOUS 21 12 1 91 42 9 0 59 INDUSTRY TOTALS 719 33 5 218 683 19 8 112 OFFICE OF CONSUMER AFFAIRS U.S. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION JULY AIR TRAVEL CONSUMER COMPLAINT REPORT MAJOR/NATIONAL U.S. AIRLINES* RANKINGS JULY JULY 1991 1990 COMPLAINTS COMPLAINTS JULY '91 U.S. AIRLINES PER 100,000 PER 100,000 RANK COMPLAINTS PASSENGERS** PASSENGERS COMPLAINTS PASSENGERS" PASSENGERS MAJORS 1 Southwest 9 2,226,867 0.40 8 2,053,835 0.39 2 USAir 25 4,771,659 0.52 39 5,201,074 0.75 3 Delta 43 6,662,584 0.65 33 5,867,123 0.56 4 Northwest 29 3,761,385 0.77 38 3,757,967 1.01 5 Continental 50 3,657,895 1.37 64 3,505,827 1.83 6 American 109 7,382,487 1.48 57 6,572,345 0.87 7 America West 26 1,626,155 1.60 18 1,344,617 1.34 8 United 114 5,989,856 1.90 68 5,473,511 1.24 0 9 Pan Am 30 1,246,373 2.41 45 1,761,826 2.55 10 TWA 97 1,959,280 4.95 107 2,399,147 4.46 TOTAL MAJORS 532 39,284,541 1.35 477 37,937,272 1.26 NATIONALS 1 Westair 0 262,854 0.00 0 175,614 0.00 2 Air Wisconsin 0 235,240 0.00 0 207,727 0.00 3 Trump Shuttle 0 130,142 0.00 0 145,191 0.00 4 Michwest Express 0 64,379 0.00 NA. 5 Markair 0 49,207 0.00 0 56,903 0.00 6 Aloha 1 470,099 0.21 1 418,954 0.24 7 Horizon 1 1 191,849 0.52 0 177,148 0.00 8 Alaska 4 615,569 0.65 1 554,829 0.18 9 Midway 6 437,446 1.37 2 647,104 0.31 10 American Trans Air 4 225,298 1.78 2 237,138 0.84 11 Hawaiian 13 419,943 3.10 6 474,004 1.27 12 Tower 4 62,273 6.42 0 53,141 0.00 TOTAL NATIONALS 33 3,164,299 1.04 12 3,147,753 0.38 GRAND TOTAL 565 42,448,840 1.33 489 41,085,025 1.19 Airlines are grouped based on annual operating revenues. Airlines are classified as Majors If they exceed $1,000,000,000 operating revenue. Nationals are airlines with operating revenues from $100,000,000 through $1,000,000,000. The number of passengers on this page is from the same month as the complaints: e.g., January complaints are compared against January passengers. COMPLAINT CATEGORIES Flight Problems: Cancellations, delays, or any other deviations from schedule, whether planned or unplanned. Oversales: All bumping problems, whether OR the airline evimpied with DOT oversale regulations. Ticketing and Boarding: Airline or travel a!" I mistakes in reservations and ticketing; problems in making reservations and obtaining tickets due to busy telephone lines or waiting ... line, or delays in mailing tickets. Problems boarding the aircraft (except oversales). Complaints Involving disabled air travelers. Fares: Incorrect or incomplete information about fares, discount fare conditions and availability, overcharges, fare increases and level of fares in general. Refunds: Problems in obtaining refunds for unused or lost tickets or fare adjustments. Beggage: Claims for lost, damaged or delayed baggage, charges for excess baggage, carry-on problems, and difficulties with airline claim procedure. Customer Service: Rude or unhelpful employees, inadequate meals or cabin service, treatment of delayed passengers. Smoking: Inadequate segregation of smokers from non-smokers; failure of airline to enforce no-smoking rules; objections to the rule, would prefer change such as; (1) relaxation or elimination of regulations, or (2) banning of smoking on all flights. Advertising: Advertising that is unfair, misleading or offensive to consumers. Credit: Denial of credit, Interest or late payment charges, Incorrect billing, or incorrect credit reports on airline-Issued credit. Tours: Problems with scheduled or charter tour packages. Other: Cargo problems, security, airport facilities, claims for bodily injury, frequent flyer, and other problems not classified above. 9142- 20 A CAB news CIVIL AERONAUTICS BOARD. WASHINGTON, D.C. 20428 Contact: Alan M. Pollock FOR RELEASE (202) 673-5990 Thursday January 6, 1983 CAB 83-5 AIRLINE CONSUMER COMPLAINTS UP 3% IN OCTOBER WASHINGTON, D.C. (January 6) --Consumer complaints to the Civil Aeronautics Board increased 3 percent in October 1982 over the same month the previous year, according to John Golden, Director of the Board's Office of Congressional, Community and Consumer Affairs. For October 1982, 845 complaints were filed with the Board, compared with 822 in October 1981. For U.S. carriers, the increase was 2 percent, from 688 to 701. For the first 10 months of 1982, consumer complaints dropped 23 percent for all categories, 21 percent for U.S. carriers. For that same period, flight problems comprised 23.3 percent of complaints against U.S. airlines, followed by baggage problems (18.1 percent) and oversales (15.5). For foreign carriers, the largest categories of complaints were baggage (28.6 percent) and oversales (17.8). - 30 - NOTES TO REPORT This report is based on informal consumer complaints the Board has received by mail or telephone. We have not determined the validity of each complaint. The types of problems included in each category are: Flight Problems: Cancellations, delays, or any other deviations from schedule, whether planned or unplanned. Oversales: All bumping problems. whether or not the airline complied with CAB oversale regulations. Reservations and Ticketing: Airline or agent mistakes in reservations and ticketing; problems in making reservations and obtaining tickets due to busy telephone lines or waiting in line, or delays in mailing tickets. Fares: Incorrect or incomplete information about fares, discount fare conditions and availability, overcharges, fare increases and level of fares in general. Refunds: Problems in obtaining refunds for unused or lost tickets. Baggage: Lost, damaged or delayed baggage claims, charges for excess baggage, carry-on problems, and difficulties with airline claim procedure. Customer Service: Rude or unhelpful employees, inadequate meals or cabin service, treatment of delayed passengers, and discriminatory treat- ment. Special Passengers: Handicapped passengers, passengers on stretchers, children, elderly passengers, passengers requiring oxygen or other medical care. Smoking: Inadequate segregation of smokers from non-smokers, failure of airline to enforce no-smoking rules, objections to the rules. Advertising: Advertising that is unfair, misleading, or offensive to consumers. Credit: Denial of credit, interest or late payment charges, incorrect billing, or incorrect credit reports. Tours: Problems with scheduled or charter tour packages. Other: Cargo problems, security, airport facilíties, claims for bodily injury, lack of adequate service, and other problems not classified above. - 2 - b/ Airlines are listed on the October report if the Board received 5 or more complaints against them during the month. For the January through October report, airlines with at least 10 complaints are listed. c/ All complaints about Allegheny Commuters are charged to USAir, and the number of passengers listed for USAir includes commuter boardings. These commuters are: Air Kentucky, Chautauqua Airlines, Crown Airways, Fischer Bros. Aviation, Henson Airlines, Pennsylvania Commuter Airlines, Pocono Airlines, Southern Jersey Airways and Suburban Airlines. d/ The number of passengers flown is based on adjusted enplanement data on CAB Form 41 reports filed by certificated airlines. For the October report, the number of passengers flown are from August 1982 and 1981. For the January through October report, the number of passengers flown are from November and December 1980 and 1981 and August 1982 and 1981. CIVIL APRIMAJICS 3.1AKD CONSTRIER COMPL ANT KEPJET PAGE 1 FUR THE 400111 or OCTOBER 1982 ALSERVATIONS b FLIGHT OVER- A'l) CUSTOMER SPECIAL ADVER- U.S. APLIVES PROJLEMS SALIS TICKETING FAFES REFUNDS BAGGAGE SERVICE PASSENGL'S SMOKING TISING CREDIT TOJRS OTHER TOTAL AIR IL JR IDA 5 2 5 2 0 0 0 n 0 0 16 U ? 0 AMERICAN 3 2 3 2 1 3 0 1 0 1 0 1 21 4 Anril. AIRWAYS U 0 3 0 0 0 0 J 3 0 6 2 1 0 0 J 0 1 6 NIL 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 CAPITOL sih. 8 1 6 1 4 0 1 0 0 U 4 44 3 10 CONTENTAL 5 i 0 2 1 3 3 1 0 0 J 0 1 16 DELTA 1 9 1 2 3 0 0 1 J 0 1 28 7 4 1 1 0 1 1 1 28 FASTERN 6 ) 2 4 3 1 1 MJR: INTERNATIONAL 3 1 0 0 0 Γ 1 J 0 0 U 1 0 8 NEW Yish AIR 2 2 1 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 NT'L. 4 1 0 14 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 0 2 5 J U 0 0 0 0 36 NUFFICEST 17 ? 5 1 4 OVERSEAS NATIONAL AIRWAYS 3 C 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 6 MARK 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 U 0 0 0 0 5 PACIFIC :AST AI. 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 1 4 2 4 11 4 4 2 0 1 1 3 50 PAV 112.10AV 10 4 4 PEOPLE PRESS AIRLINES 2 : 2 2 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 J 0 11 PIECTINT 3 3 0 1 1 2 3 0 1 0 0 0 1 15 PSA 1 2 1 1 1 C 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 1 1 1 3 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 17 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 Subtotal 1 1 2 0 0 2 1 0 0 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 TEAD, I'l'L THA 18 d 3 5 18 13 0 7 0 1 1 2 78 2 7 14 1 6 4 16 9 0 2 0 1 0 2 62 UTITED 26 USAING/ 5 8 2 3 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 WESTERN 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 16 4 2 1 2 with 8 2 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 20 2 3 OTHER J.S. AIRLINES 25 22 5 6 12 27 13 1 2 0 0 1 5 1. 6 28 701 OCTUBER 1432 COMPLAINTS 159 92 42 55 72 136 19 9 17 1 5 ** PERCENTAGES ** 22.7 13.1 19.4 11.3 1.3 2.4 .1 .7 .9 4.0 100.0 6.0 7.9 10.3 1901 COMPLAINTS 166 99 30 63 55 3 14 10 6 0 19 688 148 69 : (CENTAGES ** 5.2 7.2 9.0 21.5 10.0 .4 2.0 1.5 .9 .0 2.8 130.0 24.1 14.4 CIVIL APROVACTICS BOARD CONSUMER COMPLAINT REPAI fill THE IF OCTOBER 1982 PAGE 2 OCTOBER 11 12 0210158 19 81 1.1.1 PASSENGERS FLORD CAMPLAINTS PET TOTAL PASSENGERS FLOWN COMPLAINTS PER J.S. MAINES CUMPLAINTS $1000.0011 100.000 PASSENGERS COMPLAINTS (100,000)5 100,000 PASSENGERS AIH PLOWIDA 10 2.02 5.67 29 3.06 9.48 AMERICAN <1 25.25 .83 50 23.50 2.13 AIRWAYS 6 DRA.IFF 1.1°L 1. 24 R.29 2.90 CAPIER 111 44 2.23 14.73 45 1.51 24.9) CONTINENTAL 16 3.55 1.87 11 3.46 1.30 ILLIA 20 27.39 1.02 20 29.41 .63 EASTERN 2P 30.98 .90 40 24.14 1.35 THE INTERNATIONAL 3 7 NEW YES AIR 4 1.42 6.34 16 1.36 11.75 INT'L. 22 .13 109.23 NUMBREST 36 12.48 2.89 28 10.74 2.59 OVERSTAS NATIONAL AIRWAYS 5 States 5 4.U3 1.24 5 3.12 1.60 PACIFIC LAST AR 11 PAN AMERICAN 50 13.06 3.82 48 13.24 3.61 PEOPLE EXPRESS ARRIVES 11 2.67 4.12 16 1.31 12.21 PRESENT 15 H.33 1.80 4 6.47 1.39 PSA 7 0.01 .07 2 5.14 .35 11 16.54 1.02 25 14.23 1.75 6 8.77 .68 1 6.70 .15 IFVS 171°L 12 4.35 2.76 14 3.34 4.10 Tax 18 17.57 4.30 85 16.07 5.29 62 32.50 1.91 39 27.15 1.44 JSAIC 26 15.16 1.72 25 11.83 2.11 nkji 16 10.06 1.59 4 9.24 .97 with 20 1.66 12.05 29 2.23 12.72 The J.S. AIRLINES 11° 25.29 4.71 111 23.05 4.59 LIVIL ADRONAUTICS BUARD CONSUMER COMPLAINT REPORT PAGE 3 FOR THE of OCTOBER 1992 RESERVATIONS FLIGHT OVER- A'v) CUSTOMER SPECIAL ADVCH- FOREIN ARRIVES PRIBLEMS SALES TICKETING FARES REFINDS BAGGAGE SERVICE PASSENGLES SYJKING TISING CREDIT TOJKS OTHER TOTAL BRITTIN Althays 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 C 0 0 0 6 0 3 0 2 0 0 0 1 5 1111 DANSA c 1 0 0 1 0 0 States 2 i 1 0 1 c 1 J 1 0 0 J 0 6 3 10 20 7 0 2 0 0 2 2 77 athir POSEIGN AIRLINES 10 11 3 JUI ... 1,532 COMPLAINTS 12 20 4 4 12 23 9 0 5 0 0 2 3 94 12.8 21.3 4.3 4.3 12.8 24.5 9.6 .0 5.3 .0 .0 2.1 3.2 100.0 ** PERCENTAGES er 1931 COMPLAINTS 11 12 5 1 11 33 9 0 2 0 I 1 10 97 11.3 12.4 5.2 3.1 11.3 34.0 9.3 .0 2.1 .0 .0 1.0 10.3 130.0 ** PROCESSAGES " CIVIL ALRONADTICS BOARD CONSUMER COMPLAINT REPORT 11.1 THE 41411 of JOBSUER 1982 PAGE 4 RESERVATIONS COMPLAINTS BY FLIGHT JVLR- AND CUSTOMER SPECIAL AD VER- PRODUCTRY GROUP PRIBLEMS SALLS LICKLING FARCS REFJ.IDS BACOAGE SERVICE PASSENGERS SHIKING TISING CREDIT TODAS OTHER TOTAL U.S. VIRLINES ACTIBER 1952 COMPLAINTS 159 02 42 55 12 136 79 9 17 1 s j 28 701 STOTES 1981 CJMPLAINTS 166 ; 36 11 55 148 69 3 14 10 6 ) 19 688 FOREIGN AIRLINES OCTOBER 1932 CUMPLAINTS 12 2C 4 4 12 23 9 0 5 0 0 2 3 94 OCTOBER 1941 COMPLAINTS 11 12 5 3 11 33 9 0 2 0 0 1 10 97 CARD:/PREIGHT FORWARDERS OCTOBER 1962 COMPLAINTS 0 C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ) 4 4 0 0 J 0 0 0 0 10 10 Octjet 1951 COMPLAINTS 0 C 0 0 0 IRAV:1. AGENTS ACTOBER 1982 COMPLAINTS 0 C 2 2 4 0 0 J 0 0 0 1 0 9 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 U 2 0 3 INTURER 1931 COMPLAINTS 0 C , TIME OPERATORS OCTOBER 1932 COMPLAINTS 0 2 0 1 3 0 1 0 0 1 0 23 0 36 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 14 0 18 OCTOBER 1931 COMPLAINTS 0 CARRIERS ПСТОВЕК 1982 COMPLAINTS 0 c 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 J 1 1 OCTOBER 1991 COMPLAINTS 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 J 0 1 101.1 COMPLAINTS OCTOBER 1962 COMPLAINTS 171 114 48 62 91 159 89 9 22 2 5 37 36 345 .. PERCENTABLE ** 20.2 13.5 5.7 7.3 10.3 18.8 10.5 1.1 2.6 .2 .6 4.4 4.3 100.0 39 822 ПСТОВЕК 1911 COMPLAINTS 177 113 42 67 72 181 78 3 11 10 6 11 -> PERCENTABLE ** 21.5 13.7 5.1 9.2 8.8 22.0 9.5 .4 2.1 1.2 .7 2.1 4.7 100.0 CIVIL AEROVAUTICS JJARD CONSUMER CJYRLAINT REP RT PAJE 5a JANUARY 1932 THROUGH OCTOBER 1992 RESERVATIONS ADVER- b PRILEYS SALES TICKETING FARES REFUNDS BAGLAGE CUSTOMER SERVICE PASSENGERS SPECIAL SMOKING TISING CREDIT TOJKS OTHER TOTAL FLIGHT OVER- AND U.S. AIRLINES AERO VACID ISLANDS 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 1 17 3 13 0 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 38 10 AIR CALIFIRNIA 21 1 4 2 3 0 4 218 41 38 19 15 25 39 AIR ILJEIDA AIR ILLINIS 0 & 0 1 2 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 10 3 2 0 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 12 AIR "ston ENGLATD 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 13 AIR .1136 PISIA 5 2 0 0 0 3 0 4 2 1 2 8 1 0 0 0 0 , 1 19 ALUMA ANLINES 11 8 2 3 11 9 4 1 1 0 0 ' 0 50 ALTAIN 104 72 55 100 78 8 18 12 14 2 21 556 AMERICAN 43 29 0 0 0 0 1 0 10 ARISTA 2 1 0 0 0 1 5 ARR 14 Alimars 0 13 0 0 1 0 0 ) 1 26 8 3 0 , ASPET 3 3 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 17 2 5 1 0 3 21 5 3 2 1 2 3 2 0 0 0 0 BAR AIRLINES BRAVIFF NT'L 15 50 9 1 3 1 2 0 11 230 19 b 4 109 4 0 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 18 s 6 1 BRITT Always 6 1 0 18 446 114 117 18 10 29 78 48 2 5 CAPITOL AR CASCA): 4 2 1 Γ 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 3 10 - COMAIN 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 11 COMMAND ARWAYS 3 2 1 0 0 2 CONTINENTAL 36 21 12 16 13 35 25 2 4 3 3 0 6 176 2 1 0 1 1 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 14 CROWNAIN 27 32 4 12 8 4 0 5 234 DELTA 58 22 19 30 13 128 24 32 42 44 88 79 7 10 5 12 2 16 489 EASTERN 15 12 o 3 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 J 2 36 EMPIRE 16 > 8 6 0 1 0 1 0 7 68 2 7 15 FRONTIER 0 2 0 0 1 5 29 GLOBAL INTERNATIONAL 8 1 0 2 0 3 7 GOLDEN WEST ARRINES 4 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 35 16 5 1 1 4 HAWAIIA. 2 - 0 0 0 0 0 2 31 7 4 5 8 2 0 1 16 4 3 0 0 0 4 3 1 0 0 0 IMPERIAL SIRLIVES 1 2 J 0 1 0 0 1 12 JET AMERICA AIRLINES 1 1 3 0 2 11 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 2 1 METH) ADDRESS 0 0 2 1 22 10 1 0 J 0 5 3 0 0 METRO INTERNATIONAL MIJ PACIFIC ARLINES 1 2 1 J 1 o 1 0 0 1 19 0 11 1 11 7 1 1 1 11 1 1 0 0 c 0 37 3 MIDAY 0 0 0 0 0 J 0 11 0 5 0 1 2 3 MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 32 13 10 5 9 25 11 3 0 0 1 J 2 111 NEW PORT AIR 37 43 8 J 53 3 2 0 2 2 3 0 0 155 NORTHEASTERN INT'L. 44 3 4 4 2 J 4 235 NORTHNEST 30 22 11 15 21 25 0 1 0 3 0 9 0 J 0 0 0 0 0 10 OCEANAIN LINE 0 0 0 0 1 - J 1 0 0 3 4 16 OVERSEAS NATIONAL Alimays 6 2 1 2 0 0 1 1 47 13 4 4 9 6 02 ARK 4 33 10 2 1 8 2 2 0 0 0 0 ) 3 PACIFIC LAST AIR b 55 120 61 8 20 4 4 1 24 537 PAY AMERICAN 99 54 29 28 PEOPLE EXPRESS ARLINES 32 14 4 2 0 1 0 0 2 156 47 24 16 14 if 4 85 23 21 3 5 9 10 7 2 1 0 0 PIEJUNI 1 2 J 1 0 0 ) 0 15 PILGRIM APLINES 3 1 0 0 1 2 0 c 2 S 3 0 0 a 0 12 4 3 - PIONLER o - n 0 17 7 5 c 0 3 O - c 0 PRECISIST PhO All. SERVICES 5 1 0 - C 0 c c c 1 11 - - - 17 + 2 2 2 9 - - - 0 J 2 50 4 PSA CIVIL AERONAUTICS BJARD CONSUMER COMPLAINT REPORT JANUARY 1732 THROUGH OCTOBER 1932 PAGE 5b RESERVATIONS FLIGHT OVER- ANJ CUSTOMER SPECIAL ADVER- J.S. ALLINES PROBLEMS SALES TICKETING FARES REFUNDS BAGGAGE SERVICE PASSEVGERS SMOKING TISING CREDIT TOURS OTHER TOTAL PRINAIR 1 3 1 0 0 18 1 o 0 0 0 0 1 25 REPUBLIC 82 65 11 25 24 38 41 3 4 12 4 o 18 327 R10 AIR-AYS 6 C 1 0 3 4 3 0 o o 0 0 0 17 RUCKY MONTAIN 3 2 1 0 1 3 2 1 0 0 0 o 0 13 ROYALE , 2 0 0 0 1 6 J 0 0 0 J 0 14 SIMMIVS AIRLINES 3 2 1 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 o 0 10 SOUTH PACIFIC ISLAND 1 a 2 0 2 13 5 0 0 0 0 J 3 34 SOUTHWEST 12 13 e 1 4 9 7 1 2 0 1 J 3 59 0 9 2 1 0 0 0 J 1 26 SUN 1122 3 9 1 D TEXAS 111°C 26 32 8 10 17 18 16 2 5 1 0 J 4 139 TRANSAMINICA 6 1 1 1 1 2 3 0 1 0 o 3 0 19 TWA 179 109 40 53 51 163 130 12 39 8 14 5 23 826 UNITED 146 04 28 48 37 110 76 9 27 4 7 0 32 608 USAIRS 91 40 8 13 7 58 31 8 7 3 1 0 6 284 11 13 2 n 2 10 6 1 1 1 0 0 2 49 WESTSIN COMMUTER WESTERY 20 20 13 15 21 24 18 3 4 12 5 0 7 168 WIEN All. ALASKA 3 2 1 1 1 3 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 14 WINGS WEST 6 5 0 1 o 1 2 0 0 0 J 0 1 16 164 WORLD 42 29 8 10 21 27 19 3 2 1 0 n 2 OTHER J.j. AIRLINES 14 69 14 9 37 60 17 2 1 4 0 3 21 311 CURRETT PERIOD TOTALS 1773 1175 411 471 717 1378 901 98 191 98 84 25 280 7502 .3 3.7 100.0 ** PURCENTAGES ** 23.3 15.5 5.4 6.2 9.4 18.1 11.9 1.3 2.5 1.3 1.1 SAVE PERIOD PRIJK YEAR 2344 1137 521 576 725 2095 1178 113 264 95 94 30 401 9593 ** PERCENTAGES ** 24.4 11.9 5.4 6.0 1.6 21.8 12.3 1.2 3.0 1.0 1.0 .3 4.2 100.0 CIVIL AERONAUTICS BOARD CONSUMER COMPLAINT REPORT JANUARY 1952 THROUGH OCTOBER 1982 PAGE 6a CURRENT PERIOD SAME PERIOD PRIOR YEAR TOTAL PASSENGLRS FLOWN COMPLAINTS PER TOTAL PASSENGERS FLOWN COMPLAINTS PER J.S. COMPLAINTS (100,000) 100,000 PASSENGERS CORPLAINTS (100,000) 100,000 PASSENGERS AER.) VIRGIN ISLANDS 24 25 AIR CAR 38 29.62 1.28 64 28.75 2.23 AIR FL: 1.11 218 25.24 0.64 358 26.34 13.5; AIR ILLINIS 10 7 AIR Nin CASLAND 12 32 AIM 7831 WSIN 13 6.11 2.13 29 5.70 5.09 ALOHA AIRLINES 14 21.56 .88 15 10.97 1.37 ALTAIR so 4.38 11.42 34 2.76 12.32 AMERICA. 556 226.55 2.45 632 205.27 3.08 ARISIA INTERNATIONAL 10 Ahhi). AI issurs 26 ASPL. 17 2.78 6.12 24 2.38 10.03 BAR March ADDLINES 21 17 BRANITT NTT 230 56.91 4.04 418 90.54 4.62 BRITT AIRWAYS 18 33 3.20 10.31 CAPIT... AIR 446 15.04 29.65 304 8.31 36.58 CASLA...E 11 2.34 4.70 6 2.02 2.97 COMAIN 10 13 COMMAND AIRWAYS 11 6 CONTINENTAL 170 77.20 2.28 197 67.15 2.93 CODATAL 14 4 JELIA 234 283.72 .82 277 300.33 .92 EASTERN 459 295.26 1.66 810 307.14 2.64 9.34 EMPIRE 36 4.42 8.14 27 2.89 FROMITE 6h 50.74 1.34 98 52.52 1.67 GLOBAL INTERNATIONAL 29 ? GULDEN ALSI ARLINES 35 5.09 6.88 36 5.40 6.67 HAWAIIAN 31 27.31 1.14 33 25.31 1.30 IMPERIAL AIRLINES 16 1.87 8.56 21 1.08 19.44 JEI MEDICA AIRLINES 12 1.32 9.09 METHI AMLINES 20 6 METHO INTERNATIONAL 22 23 MID PALIFIC APLINES 19 3 MIDWAY 17 9.35 3.75 21 3.96 5.30 MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, 11 3.91 2.81 23 2.62 8.73 NEW Visia AIR 111 15.02 7.39 127 8.91 14.25 NURTHEASTERN MIL. 155 .54 287.04 NORTHNEST 235 91.66 2.56 266 95.51 2.79 OCEANAIN LINE 10 23 OVERSEAS NATIONAL AIRWAYS 16 02 AK< 47 36.58 1.28 73 36.34 2.01 PACIFIC EAST All 33 PAV AMERICAN 537 109.72 4.89 1098 116.70 9.41 PEOPLE EXPRESS AIRLINES 156 20.24 7.71 51 3.70 13.73 PIED4501 85 69.13 1.25 80 56.60 1.41 PILKIN ARLINES 15 27 PICKLE 12 10 PRECISITY 17 9 PRO Alh SERVICES 11 1 PSA 50 56.93 .88 103 45.38 2.27 CIVIL AEROTAUTICS BJARD CONSUMER COMPLAINT REPORT JANUARY 1902 THRUJGH OCTOBER 1932 PAGE 6b CURRENT PERIOD SAME PERIOD PRIOR YEAR TOTAL FASSENGERS FLOWN COMPLAINTS PER TOTAL PASSENGERS FLOWN COMPLAINTS PER J.S. MINLINES COMPLAINTS P(000'001) 100,000 PASSENGERS CUMPLAINTS (100,000) 100,000 PASSENGERS PRINAIR 25 80 REPUBLIC 327 153.78 2.13 391 132.98 2.94 R10 Albways 17 16 RUCKY MOUNTAIN 13 3.08 4.22 23 .48 47.92 ROYALE 14 6 SIMHONS AIRLINES 10 SOJTH PACIFIC ISLAND 34 .20 170.00 3 .21 14.29 SOUTHWEST 59 70.77 .83 55 64.28 .85 SUN AIRE 20 7 TEXAS INT'L 139 36.61 3.00 225 34.03 6.61 TRANSANLICA 14 4.27 4.43 43 6.88 6.25 TWA 826 146.62 5.63 1060 152.69 6.94 UNITED 608 271.50 2.24 586 246.91 2.37 USAIRC 284 133.41 2.05 413 134.97 3.05 WESTAIR COMMUTER 49 2.80 17.50 13 WESTERN 160 80.15 2.10 160 79.11 2.02 WIEN 284 ALASSA 14 8.46 1.45 10 7.52 1.33 WINGS WEST 16 3 WORLD 104 14.33 11.44 400 10.61 24.08 OTHER J.S. AIRLINES 311 31.95 9.73 633 44.73 14.13 CIVIL AERONAUTICS BJARD CONSUMER CJMPLAINT REPUIT JANUARY 1982 THROUGH OCTOBER 1932 PASE 7 RESERVATIONS FLIGHT OVER- AND CUSTOMER SPECIAL ADVER- FORLIN AIRLINES PRIBLEMS SALES TICKETING FARES REFUNDS BAGGAGE SERVICE PASSENGERS SMOKING TISING CREDIT TOURS OTHER TOTAL AER LINGUS 3 3 0 1 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 14 AERUMEXICO 10 14 3 0 3 17 9 0 -1 0 0 0 4 61 AIR CAVADA 1 C 0 0 1 2 3 0 2 0 0 0 0 15 AIR FRANCE 8 3 0 1 2 11 5 0 2 0 J 0 4 36 AIR 15014 2 ? 1 2 2 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 AIR JAHAICA 2 M 1 0 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 21 ALITALIA AIRLINES 4 / 2 3 6 10 3 0 1 0 0 J 1 37 ALIA JONDAVIAN 416LINES 0 1 0 0 1 11 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 15 AVISVCA 3 6 0 1 3 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 17 BAHAHASAIS 4 1 0 1 1 7 1 0 0 0 0 J 0 15 BRITISH AIRWAYS 12 13 7 4 2 18 9 0 3 1 J 0 1 70 BRITISH CALEDONIAN AIRWAY 1 1 3 2 0 0 3 0 2 0 0 ) 0 12 UNIA 5 1 0 I 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 U 0 11 DOMINICANA DE AVIACION 1 s 0 0 0 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 13 FAUCETT, S.A. 0 1 0 1 4 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 13 IBERIA ADDINES 2 12 0 2 5 11 3 1 2 0 0 0 1 39 KOREA's AIRLINES 1 2 1 1 2 7 3 0 0 0 0 1 3 21 KUWAIT ALWAYS 1 1 3 0 0 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 KLM 3 4 ? 3 5 9 3 0 2 0 0 0 3 41 LAKER AIRWAYS c C 1 0 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 25 LUFTHAVSA 5 2 1 4 4 9 3 0 5 0 1 0 2 36 LACSA 0 2 1 0 2 7 0 0 0 0 0 J 0 12 MEXICANA 7 22 2 J 4 25 a 3 0 0 1 1 3 76 OLYMPIC ARWAYS 4 3 3 2 1 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 PAKISTAN INTERNATIONAL 0 2 o 0 4 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 13 ROYAL Six ЧАЛИС 1 - 0 1 0 3 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 11 SABEVA 3 C 2 0 2 6 1 0 3 0 0 0 0 17 SINGAPORE AIRLINES 0 3 0 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 10 SAISSAL. 1 ? 0 2 0 1 2 0 0 0 n 0 3 11 SAS 2 4 2 2 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 13 VIASA 0 2 0 0 0 6 1 0 0 0 0 D 2 11 OTHER FINEIGN AIRLINES 28 27 a 7 25 60 11 1 3 1 1 4 14 190 CURRENT PERIOD TOTALS 114 167 48 40 116 268 82 7 30 2 3 7 52 936 ** PENCE JAGES : 12.2 17.8 5.1 4.3 12.4 28.6 8.8 .7 3.2 .2 .3 .7 5.6 100.0 SAME PERIOD PRICE YEAR 231 226 70 81 143 444 141 2 34 11 0 & 81 1470 ** PERCENTAGES ** 15.7 15.4 4.8 5.5 9.7 30.2 9.6 .1 2.3 .7 .0 .4 5.5 130.0 CIVIL ALRONABILES BHARD CONSUMER CORPLAINT REPORT JANUARY 1962 THROJOH OCTOBER 1932 PAGE 8 RESERVATIONS COMPLAINTS BY FLIGHT OVER- slvid CUSTOMER SPECIAL AUVER- INJUSTRY GRJUP PROBLEMS SALES TICKETING FARES REFJNDS BAGGAGE SERVICE PASSENGERS SMOKING TISING CREDIT TOURS OTHER TOTAL U.S. AIRLINES PERSON TOTALS 1713 1175 411 471 717 1378 901 98 191 98 84 25 280 7602 SIAL PERIOD PRIJR YEAR 2344 1137 521 576 125 2095 1178 113 204 95 94 30 401 9593 FORLIGN AIRLINES PESTIN TOTALS 114 167 48 40 116 268 82 7 30 2 3 I 52 936 SIIE PERIOD PRIOR YEAR 231 220 70 31 143 444 141 2 34 11 0 6 31 1470 CARGI/PREIGHT FORWARDERS FERER TOTALS 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 34 36 3882 FERIOD PRIOR YEAR 0 c 0 J 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 J 91 92 TRAVEL ACENTS CJARLNT TOTALS 3 3 22 14 27 1 3 0 0 0 1 27 1 102 SSIE PERIOD PRICK YEAR 4 0 42 13 38 3 2 0 0 2 3 19 3 129 TOUR MERATIRS CORRENT PERIOD TOTALS 6 16 11 5 16 9 8 n 0 7 1 221 5 305 SAAt PERIUD PRINK YEAR 9 6 15 5 28 9 4 U 1 6 2 211 2 304 OTHER CARRIERS CORRENT PERIOD TOTALS 0 2 0 1 0 3 1 2 1 0 0 0 5 15 SAVE PERIOD PRIJR YEAR 6 4 2 16 2 11 5 2 38 2 1 2 48 139 TOTAL COMPLAINTS CURRENT PERIOD TOTALS 1896 1363 492 532 875 1660 995 107 222 107 89 280 377 8996 " PERCENTAGES " 21.1 15.2 5.5 5.9 9.7 18.5 11.1 1.2 2.5 1.2 1.0 3.1 4.2 100.0 SAME PERIOD PRINK YFAR 2594 1373 650 691 937 2562 1330 117 357 116 100 274 626 11727 ** PINCENTAGES " 22.1 11.7 5.5 5.9 d.0 21.8 11.3 1.0 3.0 1.0 .9 2.3 5.3 100.0 9142.20 A CAB news CIVIL AERONAUTICS BOARD, WASHINGTON, D.C. 20428 FOR RELEASE Contact: Alan M. Pollock Tuesday (202) 673-5990 January 18, 1983 CAB 83-13 AIRLINE CONSUMER COMPLAINTS DOWN 23% IN 1982 WASHINGTON, D.C. (January 18)--Consumer complaints to the Civil Aeronautics Board dropped 23 percent in 1982, according to John Golden, Director of the Board's Office of Congressional, Community and Consumer Affairs. In 1982, 10,151 complaints were filed with the Board, compared with 13,189 in 1981. For U.S. carriers, the decrease was 21 percent, from 10,826 to 8,566. The November and December monthly figures also were released today, showing drops of 13 percent (683 to 596) and 25 percent (745 to 558), respectively. For U.S. airlines, flight problems comprised 23.5 percent of complaints in 1982, followed by baggage problems (17.8 percent) and oversales (15.1). For foreign carriers, the largest categories of complaints were baggage (27.7 percent) and oversales (18.1). - 30 - NOTES TO REPORT a! This report is based on informal consumer complaints the Board has received by mail or telephone. We have not determined the validity of each complaint. The types of problems included in each category are: Flight Problems: Cancellations, delays, or any other deviations from schedule, whether planned or unplanned. Oversales: All bumping problems. whether or not the airline complied with CAB oversale regulations. Reservations and Ticketing: Airline or agent mistakes in reservations and ticketing; problems in making reservations and obtaining tickets due to busy telephone lines or waiting in line, or delays in mailing tickets. Fares: Incorrect or incompiete information about fares, discount fare conditions and availability, overcharges, fare increases and level of fares in general. Refunds: Problems in obtaining refunds for unused or lost tickets. Baggage: Lost, damaged or delayed baggage claims, charges for excess baggage, carry-on problems, and difficulties with airline claim procedure. Customer Service: Rude or unhelpful employees, inadequate meals or cabin service, treatment of delayed passengers, and discriminatory treat- ment. Special Passengers: Handicapped passengers, passengers on stretchers, children, elderly passengers, passengers requiring oxygen or other medical care. Smoking: Inadequate segregation of smokers from non-smokers, failure of airline to enforce no-smoking rules, objections to the rules. Advertising: Advertising that is unfair, misleading, or offensive to consumers. Credit: Denial of credit, interest or late payment charges, incorrect billing, or incorrect credit reports. Tours: Problems with scheduled or charter tour packages. Other: Cargo problems, security, airport facilities, claims for bodily injury, lack of adequate service, and other problems not classified above. - 2 - b/ Airlines are listed on the November and December reports if the Board received 5 or more complaints against them during those months. For the January through November and the January through December reports, airlines with at least 10 complaints are listed. / All complaints about Allegheny Commuters are charged to USAir, and the number of passengers listed for USAir includes commuter boardings. These commuters are: Air Kentucky, Chautauqua Airlines, Crown Airways, Fischer Bros. Aviation, Henson Airlines, Pennsylvania Commuter Airlines, Pocono Airlines, Southern Jersey Airways and Suburban Airlines. d/ The number of passengers flown is based on adjusted enplanement data on CAB Form 41 reports filed by certificated airlines. For the November report, the number of passengers flown are from September 1982 and 1981. For the December report, the number of passengers flown are from October 1982 and 1981. For the January through November and January through December reports, the number of passengers flown are from November and December 1980 and 1981 and January through September and October 1982 and 1981. CIVIL AERONAUTICS BOARD CONSUMER COMPLAINT REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER 1982 PAGE 1 RESERVATIONS FLIGHT OVER- AND CUSTOMER SPECIAL ADVER- J.S. AIRLINES PROBLEMS SALES TICKETING FARES REFJNDS BAGGAGE SERVICE PASSENGERS SMOKING TISING CREDIT TOURS OTHER TOTAL AIR FLORIDA I 1 1 0 I 5 1 o 0 0 0 0 0 10 ALTAIR 6 0 0 1 11 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21 AMERICAN 4 2 3 4 3 4 1 0 1 3 1 0 4 30 BRAVIFF INT'L 0 0 0 , 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 CAP ITOL AIR 6 3 2 2 2 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 21 COVTIVENTAL 3 3 J 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 11 DELTA 4 0 1 4 4 4 0 0 0 2 0 0 ) 19 EASTERY 6 2 2 4 5 5 2 0 2 I I 0 , 32 FRONTIER 2 0 0 0 1 o 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 GLOBAL INTERNATIONAL 2 0 o 0 0 1 o 0 1 0 0 1 0 5 NEW YORK AIR 3 0 0 0 1 0 1 o 0 0 0 0 , 5 NORTHEASTERN 141'L. 3 1 2 0 9 0 o 0 0 o 0 3 ) 15 8 NORTHWEST 2 2 3 1 1 2 1 0 2 0 0 , ) 14 PACIFIC EAST ARR 1 1 1 1 6 0 o 0 0 0 0 0 , 10 PAV AMERICAN 6 3 1 1 5 7 1 0 0 2 0 o 2 28 PEOPLE EXPRESS AIRLIVES 4 1 2 0 I o I 1 0 0 o 0 1 11 PIETMONT 0 2 1 1 1 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 7 REPUBLIC 8 0 2 1 2 1 o 0 0 0 0 0 1 21 STUTHWEST 0 1 Γ o o 2 0 0 o 0 0 0 o 5 TEXAS INT'L o 2 2 0 1 1 o 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 TRANSAMERICA 2 2 0 o 0 0 2 0 o 0 0 0 0 6 TWA 9 5 2 1 6 8 3 0 4 1 1 0 1 41 UNITED 11 3 o 2 1 9 3 1 2 0 1 0 2 35 USA 8 2 0 3 3 6 1 0 1 0 0 0 2 26 WESTAIR COMMUTER o 3 0 o I 1 0 0 o o 0 0 0 5 WFSTERV 1 0 1 3 0 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 , 10 OTHER U.S. AIRLINES 16 9 2 4 , 16 1 0 1 1 0 2 , 68 NOVEMBER 1992 COMPLAINTS 108 53 30 34 as 85 23 2 14 II 5 3 25 473 .. PERCENTAGES " 22.8 11.2 6.3 7.2 16.9 18.0 4.9 .4 3.0 2.3 1.1 .8 5.3 100.0 NOVEMBER 1931 COMPLAINTS 120 TO 40 39 55 130 72 1 11 10 5 5 20 584 " PERCENTAGES .. 20.5 12.0 6.9 6.7 7.4 22.3 12.3 1.2 1.9 1.7 .9 .9 3.4 100.0 CIVIL AERONAUTICS BOARD CONSUMER COMPLAINT REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER 1982 PAGE 2 NOVEMBER 19 92 NOVEMBER 19 81 TOTAL PASSENGERS FLOWN COMPLAINTS PER TOTAL PASSENGERS FLOWN COMPLAINTS PER U.S. AIRLINES COMPLAINTS (100,000) 100,000 PASSENGERS COMPLAINTS (100,000) 100,000 PASSENGERS AIR FLORIDA 10 2.02 4.95 22 2.43 9.05 ALTAIR 21 .51 41.18 1 .30 3.33 AMERICAN 30 20.55 1.46 47 19.93 2.36 BRANIFF INT'L 6 23 7.23 3.18 CAPITOL AR 21 1.30 16.15 23 1.26 18.25 CONTIVENTAL 11 6.03 1.81 15 6.92 2.17 DELTA 10 22.97 .83 12 25.46 -47 EASTERN 30 25.63 1.17 36 25.35 1.42 FRONTIER 5 4.43 1.11 11 4.97 2.21 GLOBAL INTERNATIONAL 5 VEW YORK AIR , 1.30 3.85 12 1.58 7.59 NORTHEASTERN IVI'L. 15 .10 150.00 NORTHWEST 14 9.95 1.42 25 8.95 2.79 PACIFIC EAST AIR 10 .09 125.00 PAY AMERICAN 28 10.44 2.68 69 11.06 6.24 PEOPLE EXPRESS AIRLINES 11 2.47 4.45 6 1.32 4.55 PIEDMONT 9 7.03 1.29 8 6.10 1.31 REPUBLIC 21 13.19 1.59 13 13.26 .98 SOUTHWEST 5 7.60 .36 6.01 TEXAS IVTOL 6 3.47 1.73 14 2.65 5.28 TRANSAMERICA 6 .56 10.71 1 1.00 1.00 TWA 41 15.10 2.72 67 14.80 4.53 UNITED 35 26.29 1.33 26 22.28 1.17 USAIRS 26 13.97 1.86 18 12.58 1.43 WESTAIR COMMUTER 5 .49 10.20 WESTERY 10 8.30 1.20 6 7.21 .53 OTHER J.S. AIRLINES 68 22.96 2.96 129 23.13 5.58 CIVIL AEROVAUTICS BOARD CONSUMER COMPLAINT REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER 1982 PAGE 3 RESERVATIONS FLIGHT OVER- AND CUSTOMER SPECIAL ADVER- FORFIGN ARRLINES PROBLEMS SALES TICKETING FARES REFJNDS BAGGAGE SERVICE PASSENGERS SMOKING TISING CREDIT TOURS OTHER TOTAL ALITALIA AIRLINES 0 2 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 5 MEXICANA 2 Γ 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 SABEVA 4 0 0 0 0 I 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 5 OTHER FJOEIGN AIRLINES 6 11 2 1 17 11 6 0 2 0 0 0 5 61 NOVEMBER 1982 COMPLAINTS 12 15 2 1 15 15 7 0 3 0 0 0 5 78 ** PERCENTAGES " 15.4 19.2 2.6 1.3 23.1 19.2 9.0 .0 3.8 .0 .0 .0 0.4 100.0 NOVEMBER 1981 COMPLAINTS 9 14 3 5 6 17 9 2 4 I 0 0 3 73 .. PERCENTAGES " 12.3 19.2 4.1 6.8 8.2 23.3 12.3 2.7 5.5 1.4 .0 .0 4.1 100.0 CIVIL AEROVAUTICS BOARD CONSUMER COMPLAINT REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER 1982 PAGE 4 RESERVATIONS COMPLAINTS BY FLIGHT OVER- AND CUSTOMER SPECIAL ADVER- INDUSTRY GROUP PROBLEMS SALES TICKETING FARES REFUNDS BAGGAGE SERVICE PASSENGERS SMOKING TISING CREDIT TOURS OTHER TOTAL U.S. AIRL INES NOVEMBER 1982 COMPLAINTS 108 53 30 34 no 85 23 2 14 11 5 3 25 473 NOVEMBER 1931 COMPLAINTS 120 TO 40 39 55 130 72 7 11 10 5 5 20 584 FOREIGN AIRL INES NOVEMBER 1982 COMPLAINTS 12 15 2 1 18 15 7 0 3 0 0 0 5 78 NJVEMBER 1981 COMPLAINTS 9 14 3 5 6 17 9 2 4 1 0 0 3 73 CARGO/FREIGHT FORWARDERS VIVEMBER 1982 COMPLAINTS o 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 2 NOVEMBER 1981 COMPLAINTS 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 TRAVEL AGENTS NOVEMBER 1982 COMPLAINTS 1 o 1 1 2 n 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 NOVEMBER 1981 COMPLAINTS 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 1 0 0 3 TOJR OPERATORS NOVEMBER 1982 COMPLAINTS 0 1 0 0 10 1 0 0 0 I o 16 1 30 NOVEMBER 1981 COMPLAINTS 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 ) 12 0 0 OTHER CARRIERS NOVEMBER 1982 COMPLAINTS 0 2 3 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 , 7 NOVEMBER 1981 COMPLAINTS 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 n 0 0 1 c 0 3 TOTAL COMPLAINTS NOVEMBER 1982 COMPLAINTS 121 71 33 38 111 101 30 2 18 13 5 20 33 596 " PERCENTAGES .. 20.3 11.9 5.5 3.4 14.6 16.9 5.0 .3 3.0 2.2 . 5 3.4 5.5 130.0 27 681 NOVEMBER 1991 COMPLAINTS 130 35 44 45 65 149 81 9 15 11 6 14 " PERCENTAGE S " 19.0 12.4 6.4 R.B 3.5 21.9 11.9 1.3 2.2 1.6 .9 2.0 4.2 137.0 CIVIL AERONAUTICS BOARD CONSUMER COMPLAINT REPORT JANUARY 1992 THROUGH NOVEMBER 1982 PAGE 5a RESERVATIONS PROBLEMS SALES TICKETING FARES REFJNDS BAGGAGE CUSTOMER SERVICE PASSENGERS SMOKING TISING CREDIT TOURS OTHER TOTAL FLIGHT OVER- AND SPECIAL ADVER- U.S. AIRLINES AERO VIRGIN ISLANDS 2 1 0 0 1 11 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 AIR CALIFORNIA 15 7 1 2 1 2 10 1 1 1 o o 0 41 22 1 4 2 3 0 4 228 AIR FLORIDA 48 39 20 15 26 " AIR ILLINDIS 0 4 0 1 2 1 1 o 1 0 0 0 0 10 AIR VEW ENGLAND 3 2 0 1 5 0 0 o 0 0 1 0 0 12 o o 3 2 o 0 0 0 0 1 14 AIR WISCONSIN 6 2 0 ALOHA AIRLINES 0 4 2 1 2 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 19 ALTAIR 17 8 2 4 22 12 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 71 108 74 58 47 32 104 79 , 19 15 15 2 25 586 AMERICAN ARISTA INTERNATIONAL 4 1 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 0 1 0 13 ARROW AIRWAYS 8 3 3 0 0 13 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 29 ASPEV 3 3 1 1 2 6 1 o 1 0 o 0 3 18 3 21 BAR HARBOR AIRLINES 5 3 2 1 2 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 BRANIFF IVT'L 15 19 6 4 114 50 9 1 3 1 2 0 12 236 BRITT AIRWAYS 4 4 0 3 2 7 1 1 o 0 0 0 0 19 6 1 0 15 469 CAPITOL AIR 120 120 21 12 31 82 50 2 5 CASCADE 4 2 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 COMAIR 1 2 1 0 0 3 I 0 0 0 0 0 3 11 2 1 0 0 0 0 3 12 COMMAND AIRWAYS 3 2 1 0 0 3 COVTINENTAL 39 24 12 17 14 35 28 2 4 4 3 0 7 187 CROWVAIR 2 1 0 1 1 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 14 34 17 31 32 4 12 10 4 0 5 253 DELTA 62 22 20 EASTERV 134 26 34 46 49 93 81 7 12 6 13 2 16 519 EMPIRE 17 13 0 3 o 2 2 0 0 0 o 0 2 39 FRONTIER 18 5 2 8 15 6 o 1 0 1 0 9 73 a GLOBAL INTERNATIONAL 10 1 0 2 o 4 1 0 3 0 0 2 5 34 GOLDEN WEST AIRLINES 17 5 1 1 4 4 3 0 0 0 0 1 3 36 HAWAIIAN 7 4 2 1 5 , 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 32 2 20 IMPERIAL AIRLIVES 4 3 0 0 0 7 3 1 0 0 0 0 JET AMERICA AIRLIVES 1 1 1 3 o 2 2 0 0 1 0 0 1 12 METRO AIRLINES 12 3 2 2 - 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 23 2 0 0 3 - 25 METRO INTERNATIONAL 10 1 1 0 0 5 3 0 1 MID PACIFIC AIRLIVES 1 2 1 o o 11 1 1 0 1 o o 1 19 MIDWAY 11 7 1 - 1 11 3 1 1 o 0 0 0 37 o o 0 0 0 o , 11 MISSISSIPPI VALLEY o 5 0 1 2 3 NEW VORK AIR 35 13 10 5 10 25 12 3 0 o 1 0 2 115 NORTHEASTERY IVI'L. 40 46 10 0 62 3 2 0 2 2 3 0 0 170 16 22 27 45 3 6 4 2 0 . 249 NORTHWEST 82 24 14 OCEAVAIR LINE o 1 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 OVERSEAS NATIONAL AIRWAYS 6 0 o 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 3 4 16 13 4 2 4 s . 6 1 2 0 0 1 1 40 OZARE 9 11 3 2 14 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 43 PACIFIC EAST All 105 87 30 29 63 127 62 a 20 6 4 - 26 555 PAY AMERICAN PEOPLE EXPRESS AIRLIVES 51 33 16 24 5 16 15 3 0 1 o 0 3 167 4 94 PIEDMONT 23 23 4 6 10 13 7 2 1 o 1 0 PILGRIY AIRLINES 7 3 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 15 PIONEER 4 2 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 ) 12 3 0 1 0 , 17 PRECISION 7 6 0 0 4 o - 0 0 PRO AIR SERVICES 5 1 © 1 1 1 1 c 0 0 0 o 1 11 PSA 18 9 2 3 3 10 4 - 1 1 0 5 2 54 CIVIL AERONAUTICS BOARD CONSUMER COMPLAINT REPORT JANUARY 1982 THROJGH NOVEMBER 1982 PAGE 5b RESERVATIONS FLIGHT OVER- AND CUSTOMER SPECIAL ADVER- U.S. AIRLINES PRJALEYS SALES TICKETING FARES REFJNDS BAGGAGE SERVICE PASSENGERS SMOKING TISING CREDIT TOURS OTHER TOTAL PRINAIR 1 3 1 0 0 20 1 0 0 0 0 o 1 27 REPUBLIC 90 71 13 26 26 39 41 3 4 12 4 0 19 348 RIO AIRWAYS 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 1 0 3 4 3 ROCKY MOUNTAIN 3 2 1 0 1 3 2 I 0 0 0 0 o 13 ROYALE 5 2 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 o 0 0 0 14 SIMMJVS AIRLIVES 3 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 3 0 0 SOUTH PACIFIC ISLAND 1 8 2 0 2 13 5 0 0 0 0 0 3 34 SOUTHWEST 12 14 8 1 4 11 7 1 2 o 1 0 3 54 SUV AIRE 3 9 1 0 o 10 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 21 145 TEXAS INT'L 26 34 10 10 18 19 16 2 5 1 0 0 4 THE FLYING TIGER LIVE 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 13 TRANSAMERICA 8 3 1 1 1 2 5 0 I 0 0 3 0 25 9 15 5 24 967 TWA 188 114 42 54 57 171 133 12 43 UNITED 157 87 28 50 38 119 79 10 29 4 8 0 34 543 USAIRC 99 48 8 21 10 64 32 8 8 3 1 0 8 310 11 11 I 1 1 0 0 2 54 WESTAIR COMMUTER 16 2 0 3 6 WESTERN 21 20 14 18 27 27 20 3 4 12 5 0 7 178 WIEN AIR ALASKA 3 2 1 1 1 3 I 0 1 0 0 0 1 14 WINGS WEST 5 0 o 1 2 0 0 , 0 , 1 15 6 1 WORLD 43 29 8 11 21 28 19 3 2 1 0 0 2 167 OTHER U.S. AIRLINES 80 73 15 10 42 63 17 2 1 4 c 4 15 325 CURRENT PERIOD TOTALS 1882 1229 442 505 797 1463 924 100 205 109 89 29 305 6079 3.8 100.0 ** PERCENTAGES ** 23.3 15.2 5.5 6.3 9.9 18.1 11.4 1.2 2.5 1.3 1.1 .4 SAME PERIOD PRIJR YEAR 2470 1211 562 519 783 2229 1252 120 295 107 99 35 421 10202 ** PERCENTAGES : 24.2 11.9 5.5 6.1 1.7 21.8 12.3 1.2 2.9 1.0 1.0 .3 4.1 100.0 CIVIL AERONAJTICS BOARD CONSUMER COMPLAINT REPORT PAGE 6a JANUARY 1982 THROUGH NOVEMBER 1982 CURRENT PERIOD SAME PERIOD PRIOR YEAR TOTAL PASSENGERS FLOWN COMPLAINTS PER TOTAL PASSENGERS FLOWN COMPLAINTS PER U.S. AIRLINES COMPLAINTS (100,000) 100,000 PASSENGERS COMPLAINTS (100,000) 100,000 PASSENGERS AERO VIRGIN ISLANDS 24 27 AIR CALIFORNIA 1.26 70 31.6F 2.21 41 32.51 AIR FLORIDA 226 27.25 8.37 383 28.77 13.31 AIR ILLINOIS 10 1 AIR NEW ENGLAND 12 32 AIR WISCONSIN 14 6.69 2.09 6.32 4.75 30 ALOHA AIRLINES 19 23.25 .82 19 12.80 1.48 ALTAIR 71 14.49 35 3.06 11.44 4.90 586 247.10 2.37 682 225.21 3.03 AMERICAN ARISTA INTERNATIONAL 13 ARROW AIRWAYS 29 ASPEV 18 2.75 6.47 25 2.55 9.80 BAR HARBOR AIRLINES 21 18 BRANIFF INT'L 236 56.91 4.15 443 97.78 4.53 33 3.20 10.31 BRITT AIRWAYS 19 468 16.34 28.64 331 9.57 34.59 CAPITOL AIR 11 2.34 4.70 6 2.21 2.71 CASCADE COMAIR 11 13 12 6 COMMAND AIRWAYS 187 83.28 2.25 212 74.07 2.86 CONTINENTAL CROWNAIR 14 4 DELTA 253 306.61 .83 289 325.79 .89 519 320.88 1.62 848 332.49 2.55 EASTERN 7.94 29 3.28 8.84 EMPIRE 39 4.91 FRONTIER 73 55.23 1.32 109 57.49 1.90 34 2 GLOBAL INTERNATIONAL GOLDEN WEST AIRLINES 36 5.07 7.07 39 5.96 6.54 HAWAIIAN 32 29.46 1.09 36 27.56 1.31 IMPERIAL AIRLINES 20 1.87 10.70 21 1.25 16.80 1 JET AMERICA AIRLINES 12 1.32 9.09 23 6 METRO AIRLINES METRO INTERNATIONAL 25 30 19 3 MID PACIFIC AIRLINES MIDWAY 37 10.95 3.38 23 4.79 4.80 MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 11 3.91 2.81 25 2.95 8.47 NEW YORK AIR 116 16.32 7.11 140 10.49 13.35 NORTHEASTERN IVTOL. 170 .64 265.63 NORTHWEST 249 101.51 2.45 292 104.48 2.90 10 23 OCEAVAIR LINE OVERSEAS NATIONAL AIRWAYS 16 DEARK 48 39.99 1.20 78 39.36 1.98 PACIFIC EAST AIR 43 .05 537.50 PAY AMERICAN 565 120.16 4.70 1168 127.76 9.14 5.02 11.35 PEOPLE EXPRESS AIRLINES 167 22.71 7.35 57 PIEDMONT 94 75.17 1.25 88 62.70 1.40 15 27 PILGRIM AIRLINES PIONEER 12 12 PRECISION 19 10 11 1 PRO AIR SERVICES 54 63.27 .85 109 50.42 2.15 PSA CIVIL AERONAUTICS BOARD CONSUMER COMPLAINT REPORT PAGE 6b JANUARY 1782 THROUGH NOVEMBER 1992 CURRENT PERIOD SAME PERIOD PRIOR YEAR TOTAL PASSENGERS FLOWN COMPLAINTS PER TOTAL PASSENGERS FLOWN COMPLAINTS PER U.S. AIRLINES COMPLAINTS (100,000)$ 100,000 PASSENGERS COMPLAINTS (100,000) 100,000 PASSENGERS PRINAIR 27 83 REPUBLIC 348 166.96 2.08 404 146.23 2.76 RIO AIRWAYS 17 16 13 3.31 3.93 23 .71 32.39 ROCKY MOUNTAIN ROYALE 14 6 SIMMONS AIRLINES 11 SOUTH PACIFIC ISLAND 34 .20 170.00 4 .29 13.79 SOUTHWEST " 78.36 .82 55 70.29 .78 SUN AIRE 27 10 TEXAS IVT'L 145 40.08 3.62 239 36.69 6.51 3.66 2 3.26 .61 THE FLYING TIGER LINE 13 3.55 TRANSAMERICA 25 4.85 5.15 44 7.87 5.59 TWA 867 161.92 5.35 1129 167.48 6.74 UNITED 643 297.85 2.16 613 269.19 2.28 310 152.36 2.03 432 147.55 2.93 USAIRC WESTAIR COMMUTER 54 3.30 16.36 13 WESTERN 178 85.45 2.01 166 86.32 1.92 WIEN AIR ALASKA 14 9.20 1.52 13 8.43 1.54 WINGS WEST 16 3 WORL ) 167 15.82 10.56 437 18.51 23.61 OTHER U.S. AIRLINES 326 32.50 10.03 668 44.92 14.87 CIVIL AEROVAUTICS BOARD CONSUMER COMPLAINT REPORT PAGE 7 JANUARY 1982 THROUGH NOVEMBER 1982 RESERVATIONS ADVER- PROBLEMS FLIGHT OVER- SALFS TICKETING AND FARES REFUNDS BAGGAGE CUSTOMER SERVICE PASSENGERS SPECIAL SM3KING TISING CREDIT TOURS OTHER TOTAL FOREIGN AIRLINES 0 0 0 1 0 15 AER L INGUS 3 0 1 2 3 1 1 3 17 10 1 0 0 0 5 64 0 3 0 3 0 J 15 AEROMEXICO 11 14 1 2 3 0 2 0 0 AIR CAVADA 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 o 0 4 37 8 3 0 1 3 11 5 0 0 0 0 , 25 AIR FRANCE 3 0 2 9 1 2 2 7 AIR INDIA 1 0 0 0 0 2 22 8 1 0 5 3 0 AIR JAHAICA 2 4 2 o 0 0 1 42 2 1 10 0 3 0 0 1 15 ALITALIA AIRLIVES 4 9 1 11 o 0 1 0 ALIA JORDAVIAN AIRLIVES 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 21 4 6 0 1 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 3 15 AVIAVCA 1 0 77 4 1 0 1 1 7 2 18 9 0 3 1 0 0 1 AAHAYASAIR BRITISH AIRWAYS 12 15 1 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 13 2 2 0 o 0 3 0 0 0 13 BRITISH CALEDOVIAN AIRWAY 1 0 5 1 0 0 0 BWIA 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 13 1 5 o 0 0 5 1 o DOMIVICANA DE AVIACION 0 0 1 0 0 12 3 1 0 13 3 3 o o 1 EL AL ISRAEL o 0 0 0 0 1 FAUCETT. S.A. 0 1 4 6 0 0 1 3 1 2 0 0 0 1 42 13 o 2 6 12 1 0 0 0 11 IBERIA AIRLINES 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 ICELANDAIR 6 0 1 s 0 0 1 3 23 2 2 1 3 7 3 0 KOREAV AIRLINES 1 0 0 0 0 0 17 7 4 0 3 42 2 1 3 0 o 5 9 3 0 2 0 0 0 KUWAIT AIRWAYS 3 7 7 3 KLY 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 25 0 o 1 o 22 o 0 1 0 2 31 LACER AIRWAYS 4 9 3 c 5 5 2 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 13 LUFTHAVSA 1 o 2 a 0 0 LACSA o 2 0 0 1 1 3 83 9 24 2 0 4 28 8 3 0 MEXICAVA Γ 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 23 OLYMPIC AIRWAYS 4 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 14 o 2 o 0 5 6 0 0 0 0 2 10 PAKISTAY INTERNATIONAL 0 2 5 0 0 PHILIPPI' AIRLINES o o 1 3 0 0 0 3 14 0 1 o 3 1 0 ROYAL AIR MAROC 1 5 3 O 0 0 0 22 7 2 7 1 0 o 2 o 0 1 10 SABEVA 3 3 0 0 0 o SINGAPORE AIRLINES o 3 0 0 0 2 0 0 o o 0 3 11 1 2 0 2 0 1 SWISSAIR 0 0 0 0 I 10 1 0 0 1 4 3 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 ) 14 SAHSA 2 2 0 1 0 2 4 0 0 0 2 13 SAS 6 1 0 0 o 2 0 0 2 3 15 169 VIASA 24 22 9 5 27 52 8 1 3 0 0 OTHER FOREIGN AIRLINES 89 7 33 2 3 6 57 1011 CURRENT PERIOD TOTALS 125 181 50 41 134 283 3.3 .2 .3 .6 5.6 100.0 .7 " PERCENTAGES " 12.4 17.9 4.9 4.1 13.3 28.0 8.8 39 12 0 6 85 1550 SAME PERIOD PRIJR YEAR 241 241 86 149 463 151 4 73 9.7 2.5 .8 .0 .4 5.5 100.0 15.5 15.5 4.7 5.5 9.6 29.9 .3 " PERCENTAGES " CIVIL AERONAUTICS BOARD CONSUMER COMPLAINT REPORT PAGE 8 JANUARY 1982 THROUGH NOVEMBER 1982 RESERVATIONS COMPLAINTS BY FLIGHT OVER- AND CUSTOMER SPECIAL ADVER- INDUSTRY CROUP PROBLEMS SALES TICKETING FARES REFUNDS BAGGAGE SERVICE PASSENGERS SMOKING TISING CREDIT TOURS OTHER TOTAL U.S. AIRLINES CURRENT PERIOD TOTALS 1832 1229 797 1463 924 100 205 109 89 29 305 8079 442 505 295 107 99 35 421 10202 SAME PERIOD PRIJE YEAR 2470 1211 562 618 783 2229 1252 120 FOREIGN AIRLINES CURRENT PERIOD TOTALS 125 181 50 41 89 7 33 2 3 s 57 1011 134 283 151 4 39 12 0 6 35 1550 SAME PIRTOD PRINS YEAR 241 241 73 86 149 463 CARG)/FREIGHT FORWARDERS CURRENT PERIOD TOTALS 0 o o 1 o 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 35 39 1 o o 0 0 0 0 0 99 100 SAYE PERIND PRIJR YEAR. 0 o o o TRAVEL AGENTS CURRENT PERIZD TOTALS + 3 23 15 29 1 3 0 0 0 1 27 2 108 43 13 41 3 2 C 0 2 3 19 3 134 SAME PERIOD PRIOR YEAR 5 o TOJR OPERATORS CURRENT PERIOD TOTALS 6 17 11 5 26 10 8 0 o 8 1 237 5 335 9 7 15 6 29 9 . 0 1 6 2 226 2 316 SAME PERIOD PRIDR YEAR OTHER CARRIERS CURRENT PERIJO TOTALS 0 4 o 3 1 3 1 2 2 0 0 1 5 22 SAME PERIOD PRITE YEAR 6 4 2 16 2 13 5 ? 38 2 2 2 45 142 TOTAL COMPLAINTS CURRENT PERID TOTALS 2017 1434 526 570 987 1761 1025 109 240 120 94 300 410 7593 " PERCENTAGES " 21.0 14.9 5.5 5.9 10.3 18.4 10.7 1.1 2.5 1.3 1.0 3.1 4.3 100.0 288 658 12444 SAME PERIOD PRIOR YEAR 2731 1463 695 739 1005 2717 1414 126 373 129 106 .. PERCENTAGES .. 21.9 11.8 5.6 5.9 9.1 21.8 11.4 1.0 3.0 1.0 : 2.3 5.3 100.0 CIVIL AEROVAUTICS BOARD CONSUMER COMPLAINT REPORT PAGE 9 FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER 1982 RESERVATIONS b PROBLEMS SALES TICKETING FARES REFJNDS BAGGAGE CUSTOMER SERVICE PASSENGERS SMOKING TISING CREDIT TOURS OTHER TOTAL FLIGHT OVER- AND SPECIAL ADVER- J.S. AIRLINES AIR FLORIDA 0 2 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 ALTAIR 0 0 0 0 10 0 o 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 AMERICAN A 7 0 5 2 5 7 3 6 1 2 0 2 47 BRANIFF INT'L 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 CAPITOL AIR 11 0 o 0 5 3 I 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 CONTINENTAL 6 2 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 11 2 2 0 0 2 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 12 DELIA 4 3 0 EASTERN 8 3 0 3 10 3 1 1 0 0 0 s 2 31 FRONTIER 2 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 NORTHEASTERY INT'L. 3 0 0 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 1 o 0 0 0 0 1 20 NORTHWEST 10 1 2 0 0 4 2 PACIFIC EAST AIR 2 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 0 7 PAV AMERICAN, 4 4 2 0 2 7 3 0 3 0 0 0 ? 27 PEOPLE EXPRESS AIRLINES 7 1 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 0 11 PIEDIONI 2 5 0 0 1 0 1 0 2 o o PSA 0 2 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 REPUBLIC 5 3 1 0 3 0 0 2 1 0 0 2 19 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 5 TRANSAMERICA TNA 8 6 3 5 2 6 3 3 3 0 3 I 2 45 UNITED 13 a 4 6 B 5 4 2 1 o 1 J 2 52 USARE 6 2 1 0 2 5 2 0 2 0 c 0 1 21 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 , WESTAIR COMMUTER 1 3 0 0 WESTERY 1 Γ 2 I 5 1 0 1 0 2 0 0 2 11 WORLD ; 2 0 0 0 2 o 0 o 0 0 0 0 7 OTHER U.S. AIRLINES 22 9 0 I 11 13 4 2 1 4 o 0 3 77 21 11 6 1 22 487 DECEMBER 1982 COMPLAINTS 128 67 17 26 91 62 32 13 ** PERCENTAGES .. 26.3 13.8 3.5 5.3 15.6 12.7 4.6 2.1 4.3 2.3 1.2 .2 4.5 130.0 OFCE4BER 1981 COMPLAINTS 160 81 36 39 49 125 67 3 18 7 4 3 33 524 .. PERCENTAGES " 25.6 13.0 5.8 6.3 7.7 20.0 10.7 .5 2.9 1.1 .6 .5 5.3 133.9 CIVIL AERONAUTICS BOARD CONSUMER COMPLAINT REPORT PAGE 10 FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER 1992 DECEMBER 19 32 DECEMBER 19 81 TOTAL PASSENGERS FLOWN COMPLAINTS PER TOTAL PASSENGERS FLOWN COMPLAINTS PER U.S. AIRLINES COMPLAINTS (100,000) 100,000 PASSENGERS COMPLAINTS 1100,000.00 100,000 PASSENGERS AIR FLORIDA 5 1.60 3.13 20 2.58 7.75 10 6 .52 11.54 ALTAIR AMERICAN 49 22.83 2.15 31 21.09 1.47 BRAVIFF INT'L 19 8.25 2.30 6 20 14.71 40 1.07 37.38 CAPITOL AR 1.36 CONTINENTAL 17 5.91 2.88 13 7.42 1.75 12 26.74 .45 23 27.77 .93 DELTA EASTERV 31 1.07 34 28.24 1.20 28.97 6 4.34 1.38 1 5.11 1.37 FRONTIER NORTHEASTERY IVT'L. 7 .10 70.00 WORTHWEST 20 10.26 1.95 10 9.01 1.11 PACIFIC EAST AIR 9 .07 128.57 4.5R PAY AMERICAN 27 10.15 2.66 51 11.14 PEOPLE EXPRESS AIRLIVES 3.61 9 1.41 6.38 11 3.05 PIEDIOYT 11 7.51 1.46 9 6.84 1.32 PSA 5 6.42 .78 , 5.56 1.52 REPUBLIC 10 14.42 1.25 37 13.65 2.71 TRANSAMERICA 5 .42 12.20 2 .70 2.86 3.02 58 15.19 3.82 TWA 45 14.90 UNITED 52 28.78 1.01 " 23.75 2.00 USAIPE/ 21 15.41 1.36 32 14.15 2.26 WESTAIR COMMUTER 6 .48 12.50 3 17 7.84 2.17 11 7.04 2.41 WESTERN WORLD 7 1.51 4.64 14 1.61 8.70 DTHER U.S. AIRLINES 70 27.26 2.57 131 26.51 4.94 CIVIL AEROVAUTICS BOARD CONSUMER COMPLAINT REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER 1982 PAGE 11 RESERVATIONS FLIGHT OVER- AND CUSTOMER SPECIAL ADVER- FOREIGN AIRLINES PROBLEMS SALES TICKETING FARES REFUNDS BAGGAGE SERVICE PASSENGERS SMOKING TISING CREDIT TOURS OTHER TOTAL AEROMEXICO 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 5 OTHER FOREIGN AIRLINES 5 8 1 0 10 8 2 o 0 0 0 1 1 36 DECEMBER 1992 COMPLAINTS 8 10 2 0 1 0 0 1 1 41 9 1 0 8 ** PERCENTAGES " 19.5 22.0 2.4 .0 24.4 19.5 4.9 .0 2.4 .0 .0 2.4 2.4 100.0 DECEMBER 1981 COMPLAINTS 19 14 6 8 12 23 9 o o 1 0 0 3 95 ** PERCENTAGES ** 20.0 14.7 6.3 8.4 12.6 24.2 9.5 .0 .0 1.1 .0 .0 3.2 100.0 CIVIL AERONAUTICS BOARD CONSUMER COMPLAINT REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER 1982 PAGE 12 RESERVATIONS 0090 ATT: BY FLIGHT OVER- AND CUSTOMER SPECIAL ADVER- INDUSTRY PROPLEMS SALES TICKETING FARES REFUNDS BAGGAGE SERVICE PASSENGERS SHOKING TISING CREDIT TOURS OTHER TOTAL 9.5. 1121 INES 02058352 1792 COMPLAINTS 128 67 17 26 81 62 32 13 21 11 6 1 22 487 DECEMBER 1731 EXPLAINTS 160 81 36 39 48 125 67 3 18 7 4 3 33 424 FOREIGN AIRLINES ret' :.2 199. 001 AIVTS 8 9 1 0 10 8 2 0 1 0 0 1 1 41 DECEMBER 1031 COMPLAINTS 19 14 0 0 1 0 0 3 95 6 8 12 23 9 CARG)/ERFIGHT FORWARDERS DECEMBER 1792 COMPLAINTS 0 o 0 0 0 0 0 0 o o o 0 2 2 DECEMBER 1931 COMPLAINTS 0 o o o o o o 5 5 0 o o 0 0 TRAVEL AGFVTS DECEMBER 1932 COMPLAINTS 0 0 0 3 2 0 o 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 DECEMBER 1931 COMPLAINTS 1 o 0 1 2 o 0 o 0 0 o 1 1 6 TOUR OPERATORS DECEMBER 1982 COMPLAINTS 0 1 2 1 4 0 o 0 o o o 8 3 15 DECEMBER 1981 COMPLAINTS 1 1 0 1 o 0 o o o o o 7 0 10 OTHER CARRIERS DECEMBER 1982 COMPLAINTS 0 2 o o o 3 0 0 0 o 0 0 2 7 DECEMBER 1981 COMPLAINTS 1 1 0 2 0 1 o 0 0 0 0 n , 5 TOTAL COMPLAINTS DECEMBER 1987 COMPLAINTS 136 79 20 30 97 73 34 13 22 11 6 10 21 559 00 PERCENTAGES " 24.4 14.2 3.5 5.4 17.4 13.1 6.1 2.3 3.9 2.0 1.1 1.8 4.8 130.0 DECEMBER 1981 COMPLAINTS 182 97 42 51 62 149 70 3 13 8 4 11 42 745 " PERCENTAGES .. 24.4 13.0 5.8 6.8 8.3 20.0 10.2 .4 2.4 1.1 .5 1.5 5.5 133.0 CIVIL AERONAUTICS BOARD CONSUMER COMPLAINT REPORT TWELVE MONTHS ENDING DECEMBER 1982 PAGE 13a RESERVATIONS FLIGHT OVER- AND CUSTOMER SPECIAL ADVER- J.5. AIRLINES PROBLEMS SALES TICKETING FARES REFJNDS BAGGAGE SERVICE PASSENGERS SMOKING TISING CREDIT TOURS OTHER TOTAL AFRU VIRGIN ISLANDS 2 1 0 0 1 17 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 AIR CALIFORNIA 15 1 1 2 1 2 10 I 1 1 0 0 0 41 AIR FLORIDA 1 4 2 3 0 4 233 48 41 21 15 27 45 22 AIR ILLINOIS 0 5 0 1 2 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 ) 11 AIR NEW ENGLAND 3 2 0 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 1 n 0 12 AIR VIRGINIA 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 2 5 0 0 0 AIR WISCONSIN 6 2 0 0 0 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 I 14 ALTHA AIRLINES 0 4 ? 1 2 8 1 0 0 0 0 , 2 20 ALTAIR 17 4 32 12 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 81 8 2 AMERICAN 116 81 58 53 34 109 86 11 25 15 IT 2 27 635 AMERICAN CEVTRAL AIRLINES 0 6 0 1 1 3 0 0 n 0 0 0 ; 0 11 ARISTA INTERNATIONAL 4 1 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 0 I , 13 ARROW AIRWAYS 9 3 0 0 0 13 0 0 2 1 0 1 3 32 ASPEV 3 3 1 1 2 6 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 18 SAR MARBER AIRLINES 5 3 2 1 2 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 3 21 BRANIFF IVIL 15 19 6 4 119 50 9 1 3 1 Γ 0 13 242 BRITT AIRWAYS 4 4 0 0 3 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 20 CAPITOL AR 131 120 21 12 36 85 51 2 5 6 1 0 18 489 CASCADE 4 2 1 2 1 1 o o 0 o 0 0 , 11 COMAIR 1 2 1 0 0 3 1 0 0 o 0 0 3 11 COMMAND AIRWAYS 3 2 1 0 0 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 3 12 COVTINENTAL 45 26 13 19 16 37 27 2 4 4 3 0 , 204 CROWYAIR 2 1 0 1 1 0 o o o 0 0 0 1 14 DELTA 66 25 20 34 17 33 33 4 12 12 4 0 5 265 142 49 59 96 82 0 12 6 13 2 19 550 EASTERN 29 34 EMPIRE 18 13 0 3 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 40 FROVISER 20 7 2 8 10 15 6 0 1 0 I 0 9 19 GLOBAL INTERNATIONAL 11 1 0 2 0 4 7 o 3 0 0 ? 5 35 GOLDEN WEST AIRLINES 18 5 1 1 5 4 3 o 0 o 0 1 ? 39 HAWAII EXPRESS 5 o 1 0 0 o o 0 o 3 o 0 1 10 HAWATIAN 7 4 2 1 5 10 2 o o 0 0 0 2 33 IMPERIAL AIRLIVES 4 4 0 o 0 1 3 1 o 0 0 0 3 22 JET AMERICA AIRLINES 1 1 1 3 0 2 2 o o 1 0 3 I 12 METRO AIRLIVES 12 3 2 2 1 3 1 o o 0 c 0 0 24 METRO INTERNATIONAL 11 1 1 0 0 5 3 1 1 0 o 3 1 21 MID PACIFIC ARLIVES 1 4 1 o 5 11 1 1 o 1 0 0 1 21 MIDWAY 12 7 1 1 1 11 3 1 1 0 o 9 0 33 2 o 1 0 o 0 0 0 12 MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 0 5 o 1 3 NEW YORK AIR 36 13 10 5 11 25 12 3 o 0 1 0 ₹ 118 NORTHEASTERY IVI'L. 43 46 10 o 66 3 2 o 2 2 3 0 3 111 92 23 22 11 47 3 6 4 2 0 5 267 NORTHWEST 16 16 OCEAYAIR LINE I 1 0 0 0 10 o o o a o o 0 12 OVERSEAS NATIONAL AIRWAYS 6 1 0 o , 1 1 0 1 0 0 3 4 " JEARK 11 4 2 4 6 9 6 1 2 0 , 1 1 40 PACIFIC EAST AIR 11 11 3 2 21 2 2 o o o , 0 0 52 PAN AMERICAN 107 of 32 29 62 134 65 a 23 6 4 1 28 992 PEJPLE EXPRESS AIRLINES 59 " 16 26 5 18 16 3 0 1 0 ? 3 ITA 0 4 105 PIEDMONT 25 28 4 5 11 13 a 2 3 0 1 PILGRIM AIRLINES 4 3 1 0 , 1 2 o 1 c 0 e 0 16 PIOVEFR 4 2 0 0 2 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 , 12 CIVIL AEROVAUTICS BOARD CONSUMER COMPLAINT REPORT TWELVE MONTHS ENDING DECEMBER 1982 PAGE 13b RESERVATIONS FLIGHT OVER- AND CUSTOMER SPECIAL ADVER- U.S. AIRLINES PROBLEMS SALES TICKETING FARES REFJNDS BAGGAGE SERVICE PASSENGERS SMOKING TISING CREDIT TOURS OTHER TOTAL POYPANO AIRWAYS 1 0 0 1 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 PRECISION 9 6 0 0 4 0 2 0 0 0 I C 0 22 PRO AIR SERVICES 6 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 D 1 12 PSA 18 11 2 3 3 12 4" 1 2 1 0 0 2 59 PRINAIP 1 3 1 0 0 22 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 30 REPUBLIC 95 74 14 26 41 3 6 13 4 0 21 366 29 40 1 3 4 3 o 0 0 0 0 0 17 RIO AIRWAYS 6 0 0 ROCKY MOUNTAIN 3 2 1 0 1 3 2 1 0 0 o 0 0 13 ROYALE 5 2 o 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 SIMMONS AIRLINES 3 3 1 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 C 0 11 0 o 0 0 0 3 35 SOJTH PACIFIC ISLAND 1 8 2 0 2 14 5 SOUTHWEST 13 14 8 1 5 12 7 1 2 0 1 0 3 67 SUN AIRE 3 9 1 , o 10 2 1 0 C o 0 1 27 TEXAS INT'L 26 34 10 11 19 19 16 2 5 1 0 0 4 147 0 12 13 THE FLYING TIGER LINE 0 0 o 0 0 1 0 0 0 o 0 TRANSAMERICA 10 3 1 2 5 1 1 1 0 3 1 30 1 1 TWA 196 120 45 59 59 177 136 15 46 9 18 6 26 91? 170 95 32 56 44 124 83 12 30 4 9 , 36 695 UNITED USAIRS 105 50 7 21 12 69 34 8 10 3 1 0 7 331 WESTAIR COMMUTER 12 19 ? o 4 11 7 1 1 1 0 o ? 60 WESTERV 22 22 13 19 32 28 20 4 4 14 5 o 9 105 1 4 1 o 1 0 o ) I 15 WIEN AIR ALASKA 3 2 1 1 WINGS WEST 6 5 o 1 o 1 2 o 0 0 o , 1 15 WORLD 46 31 s 11 21 30 19 3 2 I 0 c 2 174 OTHER U.S. AIRLINES 81 66 8 42 60 17 2 I 5 0 4 10 314 14 226 120 95 30 327 9536 1987 COMPLAINTS 2010 1296 459 531 375 1525 956 113 .. PERCENTAGES ** 23.5 15.1 5.4 6.2 10.2 17.8 11.2 1.3 2.6 1.4 1.1 .4 3.8 100.0 1981 COMPLAINTS 2630 1292 593 557 331 2354 1319 123 313 114 103 38 454 10926 ** PERCENTAGES .. 24.3 11.9 5.5 5.1 7.7 21.7 12.2 1.1 2.9 1.1 1.0 .4 4.2 100.0 CIVIL AEROVAUTICS BOARD CONSUMER COMPLAINT REPORT TWELVE MONTHS ENDING DECEMBER 1982 PAGE 14a 17 92 1981 TOTAL PASSENGERS FLOWN COMPLAINTS PER TOTAL PASSENGERS FLOWN COMPLAINTS PER U.S. AIRLINES COMPLAINTS (100,000) 100,000 PASSENGERS COMPLAINTS (100,000) 100,000 PASSENGERS AERO VIRGIV ISLANDS 24 31 AIR CAL IFORVIA 41 35.73 1.15 75 34.85 2.15 AIR FL 33 10A 233 28.85 8.08 403 31.35 12.85 AIR ILLINOIS 11 8 AIR NEW ENGLAND 12 33 AIR VIRGINIA 10 5 AIR WISCONSIN 14 6.69 2.09 30 7.01 4.28 AL3HA AIRLINES 20 25.20 .79 21 15.03 1.40 ALTAIR 81 4.95 16.53 41 3.58 11.45 269.93 2.35 713 246.30 2.89 AMERICAN 635 AMERICAN CEVTRAL AIRLINES 11 2 ARISTA INTERNATIONAL 13 ARROW AIRWAYS 32 ASPEV 18 2.78 6.47 28 2.72 10.27 BAR HARBOR AIRLINES 21 19 BRANIFF IVIL 242 56.91 4.25 462 106.03 4.35 BRITT AIRWAYS 20 33 3.20 10.31 371 10.64 34.97 CAPITOL AIR 488 17.70 27.57 CASCADE 11 2.34 4.70 6 2.41 2.49 COMAIR 11 15 COMMAND AIRWAYS 12 6 CONTINENTAL 204 89.19 2.29 225 81.49 2.76 CROWNAIR 14 4 DELTA 265 333.35 .79 312 353.57 .88 EASTERN 550 349.87 1.57 882 360.74 2.44 EMPIRE 40 5.43 7.37 36 3.67 9.81 FRONTIER 79 59.57 1.33 116 62.60 1.85 GLOBAL INTERNATIONAL 35 3 GOLDEN WEST AIRLINES 38 5.09 7.47 45 6.56 6.86 HAWAII EXPRESS 10 1.34 HAWATIAN 33 31.84 1.04 40 29.89 IMPERIAL AIRLINES 22 1.97 11.76 25 1.47 17.01 JET AMERICA AIRLINES 12 1.32 9.09 1 METRO AIRLIVES 24 6 METRO INTERNATIONAL 27 30 MID PACIFIC AIRLINES 21 4 MIDWAY 38 12.09 3.15 28 5.70 4.71 MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 12 3.71 3.07 25 3.32 7.53 NEW YORK AIR 118 17.84 6.61 161 12.41 12.97 NORTHEASTERN INT'L. 177 .74 239.19 VORTHWEST 269 111.77 2.41 302 113.47 2.55 OCEAVAIR LIVE 12 23 OVERSEAS NATIONAL AIRWAYS 17 1.12 85 42.79 1.99 GEAR< 49 43.70 PACIFIC EAST AIR 52 .15 325.00 PAY AMERICAN 592 137.31 4.54 1219 138.89 3.78 PEOPLE EXPRESS AIRLIVES 178 25.76 6.71 66 6.43 10.26 PIEDUCT 105 82.67 1.27 " 69.54 1.39 PILGRIM AIRLINES 16 29 PIDNEER 12 12 CIVIL AEROVAUTICS BOARD CONSUMER COMPLAINT REPORT PAGE 14b THELVE MONTHS ENDING DECEMBER 1982 11 32 1981 TOTAL PASSENGERS FLOWN COMPLAINTS PER TOTAL PASSENSERS FLOWN COMPLAINTS PER U.S. AIRLINES COMPLAINTS (100,00710 100,000 PASSENGERS COMPLAINTS (100,0001) 100,000 PASSENGERS POMPANO AIRWAYS 10 PRECISION 22 10 12 1 PRO AIR SERVICES PSA 59 69.69 .85 118 55.98 2.11 PRINAIR 30 86 441 159.88 2.76 REPUBLIC 366 181.37 2.02 17 16 R10 AIRWAYS 13 3.31 3.93 23 .93 24.73 ROCKY MOUNTAIN ROYALE 14 8 SIMMONS AIRLINES 11 STJTH PACIFIC ISLAND 35 .20 175.00 5 .39 12.82 SOUTHWEST 67 85.90 .77 63 76.69 .92 SUN AIRE 27 11 39.71 4.35 TEXAS IVT'L 147 43.44 3.38 252 THE FLYING TIGER LINE 13 3.81 3.41 2 3.65 .55 TRANSAMERICA 30 5.26 5.70 46 8.58 5.34 TWA 912 175.82 5.16 1187 182.67 6.50 UNITED 695 326.63 2.13 662 292.94 2.26 167.78 1.97 464 161.69 2.87 USARE 331 WESTAIR COMMUTER 60 1.17 15.92 16 195 96.29 2.03 103 93.36 1.96 WESTERV WIEN AIR ALASKA 15 9.84 1.52 13 9.27 1.40 16 3 WINGS WEST 174 17.33 10.04 451 20.12 22.42 WORLD OTHER J.S. AIRLINES 314 35.61 8.82 687 47.66 14.41 CIVIL AERONAUTICS BOARD CONSUMER COMPLAINT REPORT PAGE 15 TWELVE MONTHS ENDING DECEMBER 1992 RESERVATIONS PR7BLEMS SALES TICKETING FARES REFJNDS BAGGAGE CUSTOMER SERVICE PASSENGERS SMOKING TISING CREDIT TOURS OTHER TOTAL FLIGHT OVER- AND SPECIAL ADVER- SERVICE 4:" MRS ACD LIVIUS 3 3 0 E 1 1 0 0 0 1 , 15 2 3 15 3 o 3 17 10 0 2 0 0 0 5 69 14 AIR CIVIZE 1 0 0 9 7 2 3 0 2 2 0 0 0 15 A!R FRANCE e 3 0 1 4 11 5 0 2 0 0 0 4 33 0 0 0 0 0 ) 2ª ATC 18913 3 9 1 2 3 7 3 A!? JAMAICE 2 B 1 0 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 22 ACTIVITY APLIVES 4 10 2 3 8 10 4 0 2 0 0 0 2 45 ALLA AIRLINES 0 1 0 0 2 11 0 0 1 0 0 U 1 15 4 6 0 I 5 ₹ 1 1 0 0 0 0 ? 22 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 ********* 4 I o 1 1 PRETISH :12-AYS 12 15 3 4 3 18 9 0 3 1 0 0 1 74 ""TISH CALEDOVIAN AIRWAY 2 2 3 2 , 0 3 0 2 0 0 C 0 14 0 13 nuga 6 1 0 o o 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 DE AVIACION 1 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 13 5 o o 0 1 1 0 0 o 1 0 0 12 : " IL ISTAEL 3 3 0 o 3 595CETT, S.A. 0 1 o 1 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 14 INERIS APLINES 2 15 0 2 6 13 4 1 2 0 0 0 1 " 0 , 11 ICELANDAIR I 7 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 KOREA" AIRLINES i 2 3 7 3 0 0 0 0 1 3 23 2 1 3 o 4 0 o 0 0 0 , " KUWAIT AIR.,1YS 2 1 0 7 KLM 3 7 1 3 $ 10 3 0 2 0 0 0 3 " LACER AIRWAYS 0 0 1 э 24 o 0 0 0 0 o o 2 21 1 0 2 37 LUCTMANSA 5 2 1 5 4 , 3 0 5 0 LACSA 0 3 1 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 , Γ 2 0 4 28 8 1 0 0 1 1 , 84 MERICAVA 10 24 TYYPIC dirners 4 3 3 2 3 5 4 0 0 0 0 o , 24 PAKISTAV INTERNATIONAL 0 2 0 , s 9 o 0 0 0 0 o 1 " 0 0 0 ? 11 CHILIPPINE AIRLINES 0 1 o 1 2 5 o 0 o ROYAL AIR VARUL 1 5 o o 1 0 3 0 0 0 , 14 1 3 0 2 o 2 8 1 o 3 0 0 0 o 21 SABEYA a SINGAPORE AIRLIVES 0 3 3 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 o 0 1 10 SaISSAIR 1 2 D 2 o 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 3 11 0 0 o 0 1 10 SAHSA 1 0 0 o 1 4 3 c sas 2 4 2 2 o 1 0 2 0 o ) , 14 1 0 2 @ o 2 6 1 o o 0 o 0 2 " VIASA OTHER FOREIGN AIRLINES 25 24 9 $ 27 52 . 1 3 o 0 4 15 176 1932 COMPLAIVIS 113 190 51 41 144 291 91 1 34 2 1 1 59 1052 8.7 .7 3.2 .2 .3 .1 5.5 100.0 .. PERCENTAGES " 12.6 18.1 4.8 3.9 13.7 27.7 1931 CORPLAINTS 260 255 19 94 161 486 160 4 39 13 0 6 na 1048 " PEACENTACES 00 15.8 15.5 4.8 5.7 9.8 27.5 9.7 .2 2.4 . .0 .4 5.3 137.0 CIVIL AERONAUTICS BUARD CONSUMER COMPLAINT REPORT PAGE 16 TWELVE MONTHS ENDING DECEMBER 1992 RESERVATIONS COMPLAINTS BY PROBLEMS SALES TICKETING FARES REFJNDS BAGGAGE CUSTOMER SERVICE PASSENGERS SMOKING TISING CREDIT TOURS OTHER TOTAL FLIGHT OVER- AND SPECIAL ADVER- INDUSTRY GROUP . U.S. AIFLINES 1982 COMPLAINTS 2010 1296 459 531 878 1525 956 113 226 120 95 30 327 9566 1981 COMPLAINTS 2630 1292 593 557 931 2354 1319 123 313 114 103 38 454 10926 FOREIGN AIRLINES 1932 COMPLAINTS 133 190 51 41 144 291 91 7 34 2 3 7 58 1052 13 0 6 88 1345 :981 COMPLAINTS 260 255 77 94 161 456 160 4 39 CARGT/FREIGHT FORWARDERS 1982 COMPLAINTS 0 o 0 0 1 0 o 0 1 0 0 37 40 1 1981 COMPLAINTS o o 0 0 - 0 o 0 0 0 0 o 104 105 TRAVEL AGENTS 1982 COMPLAINTS 4 3 23 18 31 1 3 0 o 0 1 27 2 113 0 o 2 1 20 . 140 1981 COMPLAINTS 6 0 43 14 43 3 2 TOUR OPERATORS 1982 COMPLAINTS 6 13 13 6 30 8 o o 8 1 245 B 351 10 1981 COMPLAINTS 10 9 15 , 27 9 4 o 1 6 2 233 ? 326 OTHER CARRIERS 1782 COMPLAINTS 6 o 3 1 6 1 2 2 C 0 1 7 20 o 14 5 2 38 2 2 2 48 147 1981 COMPLAINTS 7 5 2 18 2 TOTAL COMPLAINTS 1982 COMPLAINTS 2153 1513 546 500 1384 1834 1059 122 262 131 100 310 437 10151 .. PERCENTAGES " 21.2 14.9 5.4 5.7 13.7 19.1 10.4 1.2 2.6 1.3 1.0 3.1 4.3 100.0 1981 COMPLAINTS 2913 1560 137 GGS 1067 2866 1490 129 391 137 110 279 " PEFCENTAGES .. 22.1 11.9 5.6 6.5 9.1 21.7 11.3 1.0 3.0 1.0 .8 2.3 CONTENTS INFORMATION PLEASE ALMANAC ATLAS & YEARBOOK 1985 38TH EDITION HOUGHTON MIFFLIN COMPANY BOSTON 1985 492 Environment Environment 493 Pollutant Standard Index (PSI) in Standard Metropolitan Statistical Cities-1980-1981 Water Supply of the World1 The Antarctic Icecap is the largest supply of fresh water, nearly 2 percent of the world's total of fresh and salt water. As can 1981 1980 be seen from the table below, the amount of water in our atmosphere is over ten times as large as the water in all the rivers taken together. The fresh water actually available for human use in lakes and rivers and the accessible ground water amounts More More to only about one third of one percent of the world's total water supply. 100- 200- than 100- 200- than Metropolitan Area 0-99 199 300 300 0-99 199 300 300 Surface area Volume Percentage Buffalo, N.Y. (square miles) (cubic miles) of total 358 6 - 1 348 12 6 - Chicago, III. 347 18 - - 318 45 3 - Salt Water Denver, Colo. 286 56 22 1 277 62 23 4 The oceans 139,500,000 317,000,000 97.2 Houston, Texas 298 47 20 - 265 80 21 - Inland seas and saline lakes 270,000 25,000 0.008 Kansas City, Mo.-Kan. 361 4 - - 329 36 1 - Fresh Water Los Angeles, Calif. 117 137 111 - 145 109 110 2 Freshwater lakes 330,000 30,000 0.009 Louisville, Ky.-Ind. 345 19 1 - 307 56 3 - All rivers (average level) - 300 0.0001 Milwaukee, Wis. 354 10 1 - 350 14 2 - Antarctic Icecap 6,000,000 6,300,000 1.9 New York, N.Y.-N.J. 259 102 4 - 235 129 2 - Arctic Icecap and glaciers 900,000 680,000 0.21 Philadelphia, Pa.-N.J. 333 31 1 - 303 59 4 - Water in the atmosphere 197,000,000 3,100 0.001 Portland, Oreg.-Wash. 335 26 4 - 311 42 10 4 Ground water within half - 1,000,000 0.31 Riverside, San Bernardino- 181 92 92 - 195 78 92 1 a mile from surface Ontario, Calif. Deep-lying ground water - 1,000,000 0.31 St. Louis, Mo.-III. 339 23 2 1 311 49 6 - Total (rounded) - 326,000,000 100.00 Salt Lake City, Utah 335 29 1 - 312 36 18 - San Diego, Calif. 296 67 2 - n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1. All figures are estimated. Source: Department of the Interior, Geological Survey. Seattle-Everett, Wash. 330 34 1 - 333 33 - - Washington, D.C.-Md.-Va. 344 21 - - 297 67 2 - Speed of Animals Source: U.S. Council on Environmental Quality, 1980 and unpublished data. PSI is a highly summarized health-related index based on the following criteria pollutants: Carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, total suspended particulates, photochemical OXI- Most of the following measurements are for maximum speeds over approximate quarter-mile distances. Exceptions-which dants or ozone, and nitrogen dioxide. The PSI for one day will rise above 100 when any one of the 5 criteria pollutants (at are included to give a wide range of animals-are the lion and elephant, whose speeds were clocked in the act of charging; only one station in an SMSA) reaches a level judged to have adverse short-term effects on human health. Depending on the the whippet, which was timed over a 200-yard course; the cheetah over a 100-yard distance; man for a 15-yard segment pollutant, the time to exceed the standard varies from 1 to 24 hours. The health effect labels for PSI intervals are good or of a 100-yard run; and the black mamba, six-lined race runner, spider, giant tortoise, three-toed sloth, and garden snail, which moderate for 0-99; unhealthy for 100-199; very unhealthful for 200-300; and hazardous for more than 300. were measured over various small distances. Federal Outlays for the Environment by Activity, 1978-1982 Speed Speed Speed Animal mph Animal mph Animal mph (In millions of dollars, except percent, for years ending Sept. 30) Cheetah 70 Mongolian wild ass 40 Man 27.89 Pronghorn antelope 61 Greyhound 39.35 Elephant 25 Activity 1982 1981 1980 1979 1978 Wildebeest 50 Whippet 35.5 Black mamba snake 20 Lion 50 Rabbit (domestic) 35 Six-line race runner 18 Pollution abatement and control $6,954 $7,220 $7,632 $6,945 $5,934 Thomson's gazelle 50 Mule deer 35 Squirrel 12 Percent Environmental Protection Agency 68.6 72.8 73.4 69.1 68.6 Quarter horse 47.5 Jackal 35 Pig (domestic) 11 Aid to State and local governments 4,500 4,671 5,177 4,769 3,972 Elk 45 Reindeer 32 Chicken 9 Research and development 800 810 782 795 836 Cape hunting dog 45 Giraffe 32 Spider (Tegenearia atrica) 1.17 Standard setting and enforcement 750 776 791 537 524 Coyote 43 White-tailed deer 30 Giant Tortoise 0.17 Reduction of pollution from Federal Gray fox 42 Wart hog 30 Three-toed sloth 0.15 facilities 506 488 471 550 431 Hyena 40 Grizzly bear 30 Garden snail 0.03 Other 398 474 411 294 171 Zebra 40 Cat (domestic) 30 Protection and enhancement 2,266 2,583 2,749 2,614 2,688 Aid to State and local governments³ 851 1,063 891 856 847 Source: Natural History Magazine, March 1974, copyright 1974. The American Museum of Natural History; and James Doher- City recreation 196 209 335 338 425 ty, Curator of Mammals, N.Y. Zoological Society. Noncity general recreation 232 253 128 196 158 Historic preservation and rehabili- tation 75 106 84 45 39 Animal Names: Male, Female, and Young Direct Federal activities 1,415 1,520 1,858 1,758 1,841 Noncity general recreation 310 319 468 449 372 Animal Male Female Young Animal Male Female Young Animal Male Female Young Preservation and protection⁴ 347 382 434 387 647 City recreation 213 206 212 196 132 Ass Jack Jenny Foal Duck Drake Duck Duckling Sheep Ram Ewe Lamb Historic preservation and rehabili- Bear Boar Sow Cub Elephant Bull Cow Calf Swan Cob Pen Cygnet tation 101 100 112 133 63 Cat Tom Queen Kitten Fox Dog Vixen Cub Swine Boar Sow Piglet Understanding, describing, and predicting³ 2,603 2,698 2,376 2,423 2,155 Cattle Bull Cow Calf Goose Gander Goose Gosling Tiger Tiger Tigress Cub Observation and prediction5 929 902 854 757 744 Chicken Rooster Hen Chick Horse Stallion Mare Foal Whale Bull Cow Calf Locate and describe natural resources 739 902 650 861 688 Deer Buck Doe Fawn Lion Lion Lioness Cub Wolf Dog Bitch Pup Research on environmental impact on Dog Dog Bitch Pup Rabbit Buck Doe Bunny people 428 398 337 303 266 Ecological and other basic environmental Source: James Doherty, Curator of Mammals, N.Y. Zoological Society. research 181 178 228 266 242 Physical environmental surveys 302 292 281 214 197 Heat Wave in August 1983 Breaks the Record Total 11,823 12,501 12,757 11,982 10,777 According to the National Climate Analysis Cen- The unbroken heat wave lasted almost nine 1. Estimated. Based on January budget estimates. 2. Includes funds for planning, monitoring and surveillance, and technical ter, the August 1983 heat wave was the hottest weeks, claiming at least 220 lives and destroying assistance. 3. Includes activities not shown separately. 4. Unique natural areas and endangered species. 5. Includes weather, month on record for the United States and also one $10 billion in crops. The summer of 1983 was only ocean, and earthquakes and other disturbances. Source: Statistical Abstract of the United States. 1984. of the driest. the 17th hottest overall. 448 Energy * Household Appliance Data, November 1982 & (million households) GREAT DISASTERS Census region Area type North Non- Northeast Central South West Metropolitan metropolitan Total (For later disasters, see Current Events of 1984) Appliance No. No. No. No. No. No. No. % Electric Appliances Earthquakes and Volcanic Eruptions 20-sq-mi. area of city leaving estimated 242, Television set (color) 15.5 18.3 22.8 14.4 54.3 16.7 71.0 84.8 000 dead. Television set (B/W) 8.9 10.6 13.7 A.D. 79Aug. 24, Italy: eruption of Mt. Vesuvius buried 5.8 29.6 9.3 38.9 46.5 Clothes washer (automatic) 11.9 14.5 20.2 11.4 42.4 15.5 57.9 69.1 cities of Pompeii and Herculaneum, killing Aug. 17, Mindanao, Philippines: earthquake and thousands. tidal wave left up to 8,000 dead or missing. Clothes washer (wringer) 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.1 1.5 1.0 2.5 3.0 1556 Jan. 24, Shaanxi (Shensi) Province, China: most 1977 March 4, Bucharest: earthquake razed most of Range (stove-top or 16.5 8.7 31.8 44.7 53.3 deadly earthquake in history; 830,000 killed. downtown Bucharest; 1,541 reported dead, burners) 7.6 11.9 12.9 7.0 10.0 15.0 7.7 28.3 11.4 47.4 1755 Nov. 1, Portugal: one of the most severe of rec- over 11,000 injured. Oven (not microwave)¹ 39.7 1.6 1.3 3.7 1.1 4.9 5.8 orded earthquakes leveled Lisbon and was 1978 Sept. 16, Tabas, Iran: earthquake destroyed city Microwave 0.6 1.4 in eastern Iran, leaving 25,000 dead. Clothes dryer 6.9 9.7 14.2 7.2 26.3 11.6 37.9 45.3 felt as far away as southern France and North 1980 Nov. 23, Naples, Italy: 2,735 killed when earth- Separate freezer 5.0 9.1 12.0 4.9 19.9 11.1 31.0 37.0 Africa; 10,000-20,000 killed in Lisbon. quake struck southern Italy. Dishwasher 5.8 6.8 10.3 7.3 24.7 5.6 30.3 36.1 1883 Aug. 26-28, Netherlands Indies: eruption of Kraka- 1982 Dec. 13, Yemen: 2,800 reported dead in earth- Humidifier 2.5 6.3 1.7 0.8 7.8 3.5 11.3 13.5 tau; violent explosions destroyed two thirds quake Dehumidifier 2.4 3.9 1.1 0.1 5.5 2.1 7.5 9.0 of island. Sea waves occurred as far away as Window or ceiling fan 5.0 6.5 10.0 1.9 17.6 5.9 23.5 28.0 Cape Horn, and possibly England. Estimated Whole house cooling fan 1.3 1.8 2.8 0.6 5.0 1.5 6.5 36,000 dead. Floods, Avalanches, and Tidal Waves 7.8 Evaporative cooler - 0.1 0.6 2.8 3.0 0.6 3.6 4.2 1902 May 8, Martinique, West Indies: Mt. Pelée erupted 1228 Holland: 100,000 persons reputedly drowned and wiped out city of St. Pierre; 40,000 dead. by sea flood in Friesland. Gas appliances 1906 April 18, San Francisco: earthquake accompanied 1642 China: rebels destroyed Kaifeng seawall; 300, Range (stove-top or 10.3 9.6 11.4 7.7 31.5 7.6 39.0 46.6 by fire razed more than 4 sq mi.; more than 000 drowned. burners) 500 dead or missing; property damage about 1889 May 31, Johnstown, Pa.: more than 2,200 died in Oven1 8.9 8.1 9.7 6.9 27.3 6.3 33.7 40.2 $250-300 million. flood. Clothes dryer 2.7 4.3 2.4 2.8 10.6 1.6 12.2 14.6 1908 Dec. 28, Messina, Sicily: about 85,000 killed and 1896 June 15, Sanriku, Japan: earthquake and tidal Outdoor piped gas grill 0.7 0.6 1.3 0.5 2.7 0.4 3.0 3.6 city totally destroyed. wave killed 27,000. Outdoor LPG gas grill 2.4 1.5 1.8 0.7 4.9 1.5 6.4 7.7 1915 Jan. 13, Avezzano, Italy: earthquake left 29,980 1928 March 12, Santa Paula, Calif.: collapse of St. Francis Outdoor gas light 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.1 1.2 0.3 1.4 1.7 dead. Dam left 450 dead. Swimming pool heater - 0.1 - 0.1 0.3 - 0.3 0.4 1920 Dec. 16, Gansu (Kansu) Province, China: earthquake 1953 Northwest Europe: storm followed by floods dev- killed 200,000. astated North Sea coastal areas. Netherlands Refrigerators 1923 Sept. 1, Japan: earthquake destroyed third of was hardest hit with 1,794 dead. One 15.2 17.6 25.1 14.5 54.6 17.8 72.4 86.4 Tokyo and most of Yokohama; more than 1959 Dec. 2, Frejus, France: flood caused by collapse of Two or more 2.7 3.6 2.9 1.9 8.5 2.7 11.1 13.3 140,000 killed. Malpasset Dam left 412 dead. None 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1933 March 10, Long Beach, Calif.: 117 left dead by 1960 Agadìr, Morocco: 10,000-12,000 dead as earth- earthquake. quake set off tidal wave and fire, destroying Air Conditioning (A/C) 1935 May 31, India: earthquake at Quetta killed an es- most of city. Central 2.1 5.9 11.8 3.5 19.2 4.1 23.3 27.8 timated 50,000. 1962 Jan. 10, Peru: avalanche down Huascaran, ex- Individual room units 7.2 6.4 9.5 2.2 19.3 6.0 25.3 30.2 tinct Andean volcano, killed more than 3,000 None 1939 Jan. 24, Chile: earthquake razed 50,000 sq mi.; 8.6 9.0 6.8 10.7 24.7 10.4 35.1 41.9 about 30,000 killed. persons. 18.0 21.3 Dec. 27, Northern Turkey: severe quakes destroyed 1963 Oct. 9, Italy: landslide into the Vaiont Dam; flood Total households 28.1 16.5 63.2 20.6 83.8 100.0 city of Erzingan; about 100,000 casualties. killed about 2,000. 1946 April 1, Alaska, Hawaii, West Coast: earthquake and 1966 Oct. 21, Aberfan, Wales: avalanche of coal, waste, 1. Data are for the most used oven. NOTE: A dash represents less than 0.05 million households. NOTE: Sum of components may not equal total due to independent rounding. Source: Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-457, "The Residential tsunami (tidal wave) left 173 dead in Hawaii. mud, and rocks killed 144 persons, including Energy Consumption Survey.' 1950 Aug. 15, India: earthquake affected 30,000 sq mi. 116 children in school. in Assam; 20,000-30,000 believed killed. 1969 Jan. 18-26, Southern California: floods and mud- 1963 July 26, Skoplje, Yugoslavia: four fifths of city de- slides from heavy rains caused widespread ycan we set 92 stroyed; 1,011 dead, 3,350 injured. property damage; at least 100 dead. Another 1964 March 27, Alaska: strongest earthquake ever to downpour (Feb. 23-26) caused further floods strike North America hit 80 miles east of An- and mudslides; at least 18 dead. chorage; followed by seismic wave 50 feet 1970 Nov. 13, East Pakistan: 200,000 killed by cyclone- (Based high that traveled 8,445 miles at 450 miles driven tidal wave from Bay of Bengal. Over per hour; 117 killed and damage in Alaska 100,000 missing. and West Coast $500-750 million. 1971 Sept. 29, Orissa State, India: cyclone and tidal wave off Bay of Bengal killed as many as 10,000. figures 1970 May 31, Peru: earthquake left 50,000 dead, MPG $1.60 17,000 missing. 1972 Feb. 26, Man, W. Va.: more than 118 died when $1.70 1971 Feb. 9, Los Angeles: earthquake rocked San Fer- slag-pile dam collapsed under pressure of tor- 50 320 340 nando Valley. Death toll 64; damage $1 bil- rential rains and flooded 17-mile valley. 45 355 377 lion. June 9-10, Rapid City, S.D.: flash flood caused 237 40 400 425 35 1972 April 10, Iran: 5,000 killed in earthquake 600 deaths and $160 million in damage. 458 486 miles south of Teheran. June 20, Eastern Seaboard: tropical storm Agnes, 30 533 566 Dec. 22, Managua, Nicaragua: earthquake devas- in 10-day rampage, caused widespread flash 25 640 680 tated city, leaving up to 6,000 dead. floods. Death toll was 129, 115,000 were left 20 800 850 1976 Feb. 4, Guatemala: earthquake left over 23,000 homeless, and damage estimated at $3.5 bil- 15 1,067 1,134 lion. dead. 10 1,600 1,700 July 28, Tangshan, China: earthquake devastated 1976 Aug. 1, Loveland, Colo.: Flash flood along Route 34 in Big Thompson Canyon left 139 dead. 449 64 Business and the Economy 65 Business and the Economy Leading Advertising Agencies Percent Unemployed in Comparison of Median Earnings of Year-Round, in World Billings the Civilian Labor Force Full-Time Workers; 15 Years and Over, by Sex, 1960 to 1982 (in millions of dollars) Percent Percent Year Unemployed Year Unemployed Women's Percent Earnings Agency 1983 1982 Earnings earnings men's Median earnings gap in gap in 1920 5.2 1972 5.6 as a earnings constant Young & Rubicam $2,761.4 $2,511.7 current exceeded 1922 6.7 1974 5.6 Year percent Women 1982 Men dollars of men's Ted Bates Worldwide 2,586.1 2,374.0 1924 5.0 1976 7.7 women's dollars J. Walter Thompson Co. 2,524.1 2,315.2 1926 1.8 1978 6.0 1960 $3.257 $5,368 $2,111 60.7 64.8 Ogilvy & Mather 2,360.4 2,151.0 1965 $6,880 1928 4.2 1979 5.8 3,828 6,388 2,560 60.0 66.9 1970 7,832 McCann-Erickson 1,993.1 1,841.4 1930 8.7 1980 7.1 5,323 8,966 3.643 59.4 68.4 9,056 BBDO International 1,949.0 1,605.5 1932 23.6 1981 7.6 1974 6.970 11.889 4,919 58.6 70.6 9,628 Saatchi & Saatchi Compton 1,710.6 1,302.6 1934 21.7 1982 9.7 1975 7,504 12,758 5,254 58.8 70.0 Leo Burnett Co. 1,485.3 1,487.4 9,423 1936 16.9 1983 9.6 1976 8,099 13,455 5,356 60.2 66.1 1977 9,082 Foote Cone & Belding 1,405.6 1,211.4 1938 19.0 Jan. 10.4 8,618 14,626 6,008 58.9 69.7 9,570 SSC&B: Lintas Worldwide 1,321.5 1,305.5 1940 14.6 Feb. 10.4 1978 9.350 15,730 6,380 59.4 68,2 1942 4.7 March 10.3 1979 9,439 10,169 17,045 6,876 59.7 67.6 9,144 Source: Reprinted with permission from the March 28, 1984, 1944 1.2 April 10.2 1980 11,197 18,612 7,415 60.2 issue of Advertising Age. Copyright © 1984 by Crain Com- 66.2 8,686 1946 3.9 May 10.1 1981 12,001 20,260 8,259 munications, Inc. 59.2 68.8 8,765 1948 3.8 June 10.0 1982 13,014 21,077 8,063 61.7 62.0 8,063 Unemployment Rate, 1983 1950 5.3 July 9.5 1952 3.0 Aug. 9.5 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 1954 5.5 Sept. 9.2 Race and age Women' Men' 1956 4.1 Oct. 8.8 1958 6.8 Nov. 8.4 All races: 9.2 9.9 1960 5.5 Dec. 8.2 Composition of the Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment 16 to 19 years 21.3 23.3 1962 5.5 1984 20 years and over 8.1 8.9 1964 5.2 Jan. 8.0 White 7.9 8.8 1966 3.8 Feb. 7.8 July 1983 July 1982 16 to 19 years 18.3 20.2 1968 3.6 March 7.8 Civilian Civilian 20 years and over 6.9 7.9 1970 4.9 April 7.8 labor force Unemployed labor force Unemployed Minority races: 17.0 18.5 16 to 19 years 44.6 44.9 NOTE: Estimates prior to 1940 are based on sources other Num- Per- Num- Per- Num- Per- Num- Per- cent cent 20 years and over 15.2 16.5 than direct enumeration. Source: Department of Labor, Bur- ber ber ber cent ber cent eau of Labor Statistics. (thou- distri- (thou- distri- (thou- distri- (thou- distri- Race, sex, and age sands) bution sands) bution Rate sands) bution 1. Annual averages. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of sands) bution Rate Labor Statistics. White 97,255 64.4 7,995 59.1 8.2 96,493 87.3 8,356 77.4 8.7 Employment and Unemployment Men. 20 years and older 51,901 34.4 4,010 29.6 7.7 51,292 * 46.4 4,037 37.4 7.9 Women, 20 years and older 38,161 25.3 2,587 19.1 6.8 37,845 (in millions of persons) 34.2 2,777 25.7 7.3 Teenagers. 16 to 19 years 7,193 4.8 1,398 10.3 19.4 7,356 6.7 1,542 14.3 21.0 Black and other 11,741 35.6 2,298 40.9 19.6 14,027 1983 1980 1979 1975 1970 1959 1950 1945 1941 1932 1929 12.7 2,433 22.6 17.3 Category Men. 20 years and older 5,599 17.0 1,040 18.5 18.6 6,784 6.1 1,063 10.0 5.7 Women. 20 years and older 5,317 16.1 859 15.3 16.2 6,247 5.7 897 8.3 4.4 EMPLOYMENT STATUS¹ Teenagers. 16 to 19 years 825 2.5 399 7.1 48.4 997 0.9 47.4 Total noninstitutional population 174.2 169.8 167.0 155.3 140.3 117.9 106.6 105.5 101.5 473 4.4 All races Total labor force - 109.0 107.0 96.0 86.0 70.9 63.9 65.3 57.5 51.3 49.4 Men. 20 years and older 57,500 51.4 5,050 48.2 8.8 58,076 47.3 Percent of population 64.0 64.2 64.1 61.8 61.3 60.2 59.9 61.9 56.7 I 52.5 5,100 8.8 Women, 20 years and older 43,478 41.4 3,446 34.4 7.9 44,092 40.0 3,674 34.1 8.3 Civilian labor force 111.6 106.9 105.0 93.8 82.8 68.4 62.2 53.9 55.9 51.0 49.2 Teenagers, 16 to 19 years 8,018 7.3 1,797 17.4 22,4 8,353 78.7 64.6 58.9 52.8 50.4 38.9 7.6 2,015 18.7 24.1 Employed 100.8 99.3 98.8 85.8 47.6 Total 108,996 100.0 10,293 100.0 9.4 110,520 100.0 10,789 Agriculture 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.5 5.6 7.2 8.6 9.1 10.2 10.5 100.0 9.8 Nonagricultural industries 97.5 95.9 95.5 82.4 75.2 59.1 51.8 44.2 41.3 28.8 37.2 NOTE: Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unemployed 10.7 7.6 6.1 7.9 4.1 3.7 3.3 1.0 5.6 12.1 1.6 Percent of labor force 9.6 7.1 5.8 8.5 4.9 5.5 5.3 1.9 9.9 23.6 3.2 Not in labor force 62.7 60.8 59.9 59.4 54.3 47.0 42.8 40.2 44.0 Advertising Expenditures by Medium INDUSTRY Total nonagricultural employment 90.1 90.4 89.8 76.9 70.9 53.3 45.2 40.4 36.5 23.6 31.3 Goods-producing industries 23.4 25.7 26.5 22.6 23.6 20.4 18.5 17.5 16.0 8.6 13.3 (in Millions) 1.0 0.7 1.1 Mining 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 Construction 3.9 4.3 4.5 3.5 3.6 3.0 2.4 1.1 1.8 1.0 1.5 1982 1981 1980 1975 1970 1960 Manufacturing: Durable goods 10.8 12.2 12.8 10.7 11.2 9.4 8.1 9.1 7.0 Nondurable goods 7.7 8.1 8.3 7.6 8.2 7.3 7.1 6.5 6.2 % of % of % of % of Medium % of Amt. % of 32.9 26.7 22.9 20.6 15.0 18.0 total Amt. total Amt. Amt. Amt. total Amt. Services-producing industries 66.7 64.7 63.4 54.3 47.3 total total total Transportation and public utilities 5.0 5.1 5.1 4.5 4.5 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.3 2.8 3.9 Newspapers $17.7 26.6 $16.5 27.3 $14.8 27.7 $8.2 29.5 31.0 Trade: Wholesale 5.3 5.3 5.1 4.4 4.0 3.1 2.6 1.9 2.0 $5.7 29.2 $3.7 Magazines 3.7 5.6 3.5 5.8 3.1 6.8 5.4 5.9 1.5 5.2 0.9 Retail 15.5 15.0 15.0 12.6 11.0 8.0 5.3 1.3 6.6 Business Papers 7.9 1.9 2.8 1.8 3.0 1.7 3.1 0.9 3.3 0.7 3.8 0.6 5.1 Finance, insurance, and Radio 4.7 7.0 4.2 7.0 3.7 2.0 7.1 6.7 0.7 real estate 5.5 5.2 5.0 4.2 3.6 2.5 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.5 6.9 1.3 Television 5.8 14.3 21.5 12.7 21.0 11.4 21.2 5.3 18.9 3.6 18.4 1.6 Services 19.7 17.9 17.9 13.9 11.5 7.1 5.4 4.2 3.9 2.9 3.4 Direct mail 10.3 13.3 15.5 8.9 14.7 7.6 14.2 4.1 14.8 2.8 14.1 1.8 15.3 Federal government 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.2 1.9 2.8 1.3 0.6 0.5 Outdoor 0.7 1.1 0.7 1.2 0.6 1.1 0.3 9.8 5.9 4.1 3.1 3.3 2.7 2.5 1.2 0.2 1.2 0.2 State and local government 13.1 13.4 13.2 11.9 Miscellaneous² 1.7 13.3 19.9 12.1 20.0 10.7 19.9 5.6 20.0 3.9 20.0 2.4 Total 19.8 66.6 100.0 60.4 100.0 53.6 100.0 27.9 100.0 19.5 100.0 11.9 1. For 1929-45, figures on employment status relate to persons 14 years and over; beginning in 1950, 16 years and over. 100.0 NOTE: Figures may not add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics 1. Preliminary. 2. Includes regional farm papers. Sources: McCann-Erickson, Inc., and Advertising Age. 52 Business and the Economy Business and the Economy 53 Expenditures for New Plant New Housing Starts¹ and Mobile and Equipment1 Homes Shipped 50 Companies With Largest Number of Stockholders (in millions of dollars) (in thousands) Company Stockholders Company Stockholders Manufac- No. of No. of Mobile American Tel. & Tel. 2,960,000 Middle South Utilities 218,000 turing and Transpor- All units units homes General Motors 998,000 United States Steel 216,000 Year mining tation other2 Total Year started Year started Year shipped Exxon Corporation 890,000 Dominion Resources 213,000 1950 $8,570 International Business Machines 770,000 Niagara Mohawk Power 209,000 $2,380 $14,370 $25,320 1900 189 1965 1,510 1965 217 1955 36,580 General Electric 501,000 Consolidated Edison 207,000 13,810 2,600 20,170 1910 387 1970 1,469 1970 401 GTE Corporation 476,000 Ohio Edison 204,000 1960 17,650 3,190 27,800 48,630 1920 247 1975 1,171 1975 213 1965 26,770 5,460 38,200 1925 937 1976 Imperial Chemical 366,000 Northeast Utilities 201,000 70,430 1,548 1976 246 1970 39,010 6,950 59,650 105,610 Texaco Inc. 354,000 Eastman Kodak 200,000 1930 330 1977 2,002 1977 277 200,000 1975 61,020 8,680 157,710 221 Sears, Roebuck 340,000 RCA Corporation 88,010 1935 1978 2,036 1978 275 89,930 10,680 130,630 1940 603 1979 Southern Company 340,000 Atlantic Richfield 198,000 1978 231,240 1,760 1979 277 1979 110,060 12,350 148,050 270,460 American Electric Power 338,000 Union Electric 193,000 1945 326 1980 1,313 1980 222 1980 12,090 295,630 1,952 Bell Canada Enterprises 304,000 Standard Oil (Indiana) 190,000 129,320 154,220 1950 1981 1,100 1981 241 1981 165,790 1955 Commonwealth Edison 301,000 Consumers Power 189,000 143,650 12,050 321,490 1,646 1982 1,072 1982 240 1982 11,950 Ford Motor 291,000 Occidental Petroleum 185,000 135,130 169,360 316,430 19601 1,296 1983 1,712 1983 296 1983 Philadelphia Electric 276,000 International Tel. & Tel. 181,000 123,180 11,250 168,750 303,200 19843 182,900 333,320 1. Prior to 1960, starts limited to nonfarm housing; from Mobil Corp. 272,000 139,460 Long Island Lighting 180,000 10,960 1960 on, figures include farm housing. Sources: Department Pacific Gas & Electric 268,000 Pennsylvania Power & Light 169,000 1. Data exclude agriculture. 2. Includes electric and gas utili- of Commerce, Housing Construction Statistics, 1900-1965, Detroit Edison 254,000 Chrysler Corporation 169,000 ties, trade, service, communications, construction, and fi- and Construction Reports, Housing Starts, 1970-83, Manu- Gulf Oil 253,000 BankAmerica 161,000 nance. 3. Planned capital expenditures. NOTE: This series factured Housing Institute, 1965-76; National Conference British Petroleum 251,000 Southern California Edison 158,000 was revised in January 1984. Source: Department of Com- of States on Building Codes and Standards. duPont de Nemours 246,000 Duquesne Light 144,000 merce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Hitachi, Ltd. 240,000 Westinghouse Electric 144,000 Standard Oil of California 236,000 Dow Chemical 136,000 Public Service Electric & Gas 232,000 Cleveland Electric 132,000 Tenneco Inc. 224,000 Matsushita Electric 129,000 Shareholders in Public Corporations Note: As of early 1984. Source: New York Stock Exchange. Characteristic 1983 1980 1975 1970 1965 1959 1952 Individual shareholders (thousands) 42,360 30,200 25,270 30,850 20,120 12,490 6,490 Owners of shares listed on New York Stock Exchange (thousands) 26,029 23,804 17,950 18,290 12,430 8,510 n.a. Adult shareowner incidence in population 1 in 4 1 in 5 1 in 6 1 in 4 1 in 6 1 in 8 in 16 Median household income $33,200 $27,750 $19,000 $13,500 $9,500 $7,000 $7,100 50 Leading Stocks in Market Value Adult shareowners with household income: under $10,000 (thousands) 1,460 1,742 3,420 8,170 10,080 9,340 n.a. Market Listed Market Listed $10,000 and over (thousands) 36,261 25,715 19,970 20,130 8,410 2,740 n.a. value shares value shares Adult female shareowners (thousands) 20,385 13,696 11,750 14,290 9,430 6,350 3,140 Stock (millions) (millions) Stock (millions) (millions) Adult male shareowners (thousands) 19,226 14,196 11,630 14,340 9,060 5,740 3,210 Median age 45 46 53 48 49 49 International Business Machines $74,013 604.8 Merck & Co. 6,861 75.9 51 American Telephone & Telegraph 57,371 936.7 Dow Chemical 6,819 205.9 NOTE: n.a. = not available. Source: New York Stock Exchange. Exxon Corp. 33,877 906.4 American Express 6,746 207.6 General Electric 27,139 462.9 Reynolds (R.J.) Inds. 6,359 104.7 General Motors 23,375 314.3 International Telephone & Telegraph 6,140 137.2 Standard Oil (Indiana) 15,407 304.3 Union Pacific 5,813 114.5 50 Most Active Stocks in 1983 Schlumberger, N.V. 15,218 302.8 Bristol-Myers 5,761 135.9 Sears, Roebuck 13,367 361.3 Tenneco Inc. 5,716 139.4 Eastman Kodak 12,658 165.7 Sun Co. 5,698 130.2 Stock Share volume Stock Share volume Stock Share volume duPont de Nemours 12,392 238.3 Pfizer Inc. 5,696 159.3 Shell Oil 12,370 309.3 Abbott Laboratories 5,615 124.1 American Tel. & Tel. 420,502,900 Atlantic Richfield 97,006,700 Standard Oil (Indiana) 75,719,300 Mobil Corp. 12,282 427.2 Unocal Corp. 5,493 173.7 Int'l Business Machines 186,294,000 Sony Corp. 96,055,800 Morris (Philip) 75,504,200 Standard Oil of California 11,888 342.1 Standard Oil (Ohio) 5,443 121.6 Exxon Corp. 166,494,600 Diamond Shamrock 94,775,500 Pepsi Co, Inc. 73,962,900 Atlantic Richfield 10,719 247.8 Teledyne, Inc. 5,385 32.3 Chrysler Corporation 158,081,300 Ford Motor 94,170,100 Halliburton Co. 73,520,700 Hewlett-Packard 10,681 252.1 Phillips Petroleum 5,329 154.4 Merrill Lynch 127,643,200 General Electric 93,151,700 Int'l Tel. & Tel. 70,926,300 Texaco Inc. 9,875 274.3 Bell Canada Enterprises 5,295 196.1 General Motors 126,271,600 AMR Corp. 92,136,600 National Semiconductor 70,264,200 Minnesota Mining & Manufacturing 9,735 118.0 Wal-Mart Stores 5,271 135.1 American Express 112,792,580 RCA Corp. 92,057,600 Boeing Co. 70,234,900 Procter & Gamble 9,545 167.8 Motorola, Inc. 5,215 38.3 Pan American World Airways 112,434,100 Johnson & Johnson 88,146,900 Prime Computer 69,947,900 Gulf Oil 9,139 211.9 Rockwell International 5,098 154.5 Schlumberger, N.V. 112,353,700 K mart Corp. 88,068,800 Phillips Petroleum 69,067,500 Morris (Philip) 9,048 126.1 Citicorp 5,081 136.9 Citicorp 111,945,900 Dow Chemical 81,958,300 Unocal Corp. 68,431,800 Getty Oil 8,687 88.5 Texas Oil & Gas 5,010 104.9 Eastman Kodak 111,325,100 Phibro-Salomon 81,885,200 GTE Corp. 67,491,300 American Home Products 8,373 168.7 Westinghouse Electric 4,932 90.1 Tandy Corp. 109,085,600 Hewlett-Packard 79,972,200 Archer-Daniels-Midland 67,332,800 GTE Corp. 8,131 185.9 Superior Oil 4,880 132.8 Sears, Roebuck 103,730,400 Federal Nat'l Mortgage 79,688,645 Amerada Hess 66,828,100 Johnson & Johnson 7,800 190.8 Halliburton Co. 4,785 118.5 Mobil Corp. 102,291,000 Warner Communications 79,051,700 BankAmerica 64,709,700 Coca-Cola Co. 7,300 136.4 Total $571,897 11,134.6 Digital Equipment 101,313,900 Goodyear Tire 79,040,500 Xerox Corp. 64,368,400 Ford Motor 7,066 166.3 Gulf Oil 98,481,300 Coleco Industries 76,203,600 American Motors 64,334,100 Superior Oil 97,404,800 Standard Oil Co. of Cal. 75,841,100 NOTE: As of Dec. 31, 1983. Of the 1,518 common stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange at the end of 1983, the 50 issues with the largest market value totaled $572 billion, or 37% of the total value of common stocks listed. The five Source: New York Stock Exchange. largest common issues were valued at $216 billion, or 16% of the total. Source: New York Stock Exchange. Business and the Economy 51 50 Business and the Economy of Total Family Income ** Terms on Conventional First Mortgages: All Major Types of Lenders (figures in percent) Contract Fees and Effective Loan-to-price rate charges rate Maturity Loan Purchase ratio Type of homes and year (percent) (percent) (percent) (years) amount price (percent) White Black and other races Income range 1970 1960 1982 1980 New homes: 1983 12.11 2.39 12.57 26.7 70.6 93.9 77.3 1982 1980 1970 1960 1982 14.49 2.96 15.14 27.5 69.5 94.1 76.6 Families (thousands)1 53,407 52,710 46,535 41,123 7,987 7,599 5,413 4,333 1981 14.13 2.66 14.70 27.7 65.2 90.3 74.8 1.9 1.6 5.6 15.1 4.9 5.0 15.6 39.8 1980 12.25 2.09 12.65 28.2 59,200 83,400 73.2 Under $2,500 $2,500 to $7,499 7.1 8.6 25.8 52.9 21.0 22.5 41.4 48.9 1979 10.48 1.66 10.77 28.5 53,300 74,400 73.9 $7,500 to $12,400 11.1 13.1 33.4 24.6 17.5 18.5 25.6 9.9 1975 8.75 1.54 - 26.8 33,300 44,600 76.1 6.5 1970 8.27 1.03 - 25.1 25,200 35,500 71.7 $12,500 to $14,999 5.9 6.8 11.5 3.3 6.2 7.4 0.9 $15,000 to $19,999 12.3 14.1 13.8 2.2 11.1 12.8 7.4 0.3 Existing homes: 1983 12.29 2.40 12.75 25.9 56.8 79.3 74.3 $20,000 to $24,999 12.6 14.2 4.9 0.9 10.7 10.6 2.1 0.3 1982 14.78 2.55 15.33 24.9 48.7 70.7 71.9 68.5 72.9 $25,000 to $34,999 20.3 20.8 3.2 14.5 12.9 1.1 1981 14.51 2.27 15.00 25.9 47.7 - - $35,000 to $49,999 16.9 13.6 1.2 1.1 9.6 7.6 0.3 - 1980 12.58 1.90 12.95 26.8 48,000 68,000 73.3 7.2 4.6 2.8 0.1 1979 10.66 1.45 10.92 27.1 46,300 64,600 74.0 $50,000 and over 11.9 0.6 - - Median income $24,603 $21,904 $10,236 $5,835 $15,211 $13,843 $6,516 $3,230 1975 9.01 1.19 - 24.0 27,400 38,200 73.4 1970 8.20 0.92 - 22.8 21,000 30,000 71.1 1. As of March 1984. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Source: Federal Home Loan Bank Board. Producer Price Indexes by Major Commodity Groups Consumer Credit (1967 100) (non-installment credit; in millions of dollars) Commodity 1983 1980 1975 1970 1965 1960 1955 Single- Total credit Single- Total credit Service Charge payment out- Service Charge payment out- All commodities 303.1 268.8 174.9 110.4 96.6 94.9 87.8 End of year credit accounts loans standing End of year credit accounts loans standing Farm products 248.2 249.4 186.7 111.0 98.7 97.2 98.2 $ 10,138 1975 12,027 11,739 27,378 51,144 Processed foods 256.0 241.2 182.6 112.1 95.5 89.5 85.0 1950 $ 1,638 $ 4,858 $ 3,642 Textile products and apparel 204.9 183.5 137.9 107.1 99.8 99.5 98.7 1955 2,316 6,761 6,002 15,079 1980 19,280 13,135 42,352 74,767 148.5 94.3 90.8 77.3 1960' 3,734 7,235 9,084 20,053 1981 22,270 14,403 43,496 80,663 Hides, skins, and leather products 271.4 248.9 110.3 Fuels and related products and power 665.9 574.0 245.1 106.2 95.5 96.1 91.2 1965 5,545 8,319 15,462 29,326 1982 24,346 14,381 47,144 85,871 Chemicals and allied products 292.9 260.3 181.3 102.2 99.0 101.8 98.5 1970 9,106 9,156 19,323 37,585 1983 28,635 15,790 52,485 96,910 Rubber and plastic products 243.4 217.4 150.2 108.3 95.9 103.1 102.4 Lumber and wood products 307.3 288.9 176.9 113.6 95.9 95.3 97.1 1. Beginning with 1960, data include Alaska and Hawaii. Source: Federal Reserve Board. Pulp, paper, and allied products 297.7 249.2 170.4 108.2 96.2 98.1 87.8 Metals and metal products 307.1 286.4 185.6 116.6 96.4 92.4 82.1 Machinery and equipment 286.4 239.8 161.4 111.4 93.9 92.0 75.7 Furniture and household durables 213.9 187.7 139.7 107,5 96.9 99.0 93.3 Nonmetallic mineral products 325.3 283.0 174.0 112.9 97.5 97.2 87.5 Estimated Annual Retail and Wholesale Sales by Kind of Business Transportation equipment (Dec. 1968 100) 256.7 207.0 141.5 104.6 98.5 98.8 - (in millions of dollars) Miscellaneous products 289.5 258.8 147.7 109.9 95.9 93.0 86.5 Kind of business 1983 1980 Kind of business 1983 1980 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Retail trade, total $1,173,966 $951,902 Furniture and home furnishings 18,572 15,321 Building materials, hardware, Lumber and other construction garden supply, and mobile materials (S) 34,514 Life Insurance in Force Farm Indexes home dealers 59,873 49,616 Electrical goods 66,143 47,542 Automotive dealers 221,687 162,309 Hardware, plumbing, heating and (in millions of dollars) (1977 100) Furniture, home furnishings, and supplies 31,187 27,136 equipment stores 51,774 43,416 Machinery, equipment, supplies 138,952 130,282 Ordin- Indus- General merchandise group stores 142,997 117,227 Scrap and waste materials (S) 17,220 As of Prices paid Prices rec'd Ratio Food stores' 259,441 217,047 Nondurable goods, total 678,980 607,128 Dec. 31 ary Group trial Credit Total Year by farmers' by farmers2 Gasoline service stations 103,121 93,624 Total (excluding farm-product 1915 $16,650 $100 $4,279 $21,029 1950 37 56 151 Apparel and accessory stores 54,005 44,426 raw materials) (S) 484,901 - 78,756 9,801 17,693 73 106,413 1955 40 51 128 Eating and drinking places 115,710 85,842 Paper and paper products 26,532 21,296 1930 1945 101,550 22,172 27,675 365 151,762 1960 44 52 118 Drug stores and proprietary stores 38,766 30,504 Drugs, drug proprietaries, and 1950 149,071 47,793 33,415 3,844 234,168 1965 47 54 115 Liquor stores 19,690 17,083 druggists' sundries (S) 13,626 216,812 14,493 373,332 1970 55 60 109 Merchant wholesale trade, total 1,183,790 1,055,168 Apparel, piece goods, and notions (S) 25,121 1955 101,345 39,682 1960 341,881 175,903 39,563 29,101 586,448 1975 89 Total, (excluding farm-product Groceries and related products 199,836 152,551 101 113 1965 499,638 308,078 39,818 53,020 900,554 1980 138 134 97 raw materials) (S) 932,941 Beer, wine, distilled alcoholic 734,730 38,644 77,392 1,402,123 1981 150 93 Durable goods, total 504,810 448,040 beverages 36,945 32,554 1970 551,357 139 1980 1,760,474 1,579,355 35,994 165,215 3,541,038 1982 156 133 85 Motor vehicles and automotive Miscellaneous nondurable goods 84,744 68,382 1981 1,978,080 1,888,612 34,547 162,356 4,063,595 parts and supplies 98,814 84,227 Tobacco and tobacco products (S) 11,366 1982 2,216,388 2,066,361 32,766 4,476,659 1. Commodities, interest, and taxes, and wage rates. 2. All <1983 2,544,275 2,219,573 31,354 170,659 4,965,861 crops and livestock. Source: Department of Agriculture, Sta- NOTE: (S) = does not meet publication standards. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. tistical Reporting Service. Source: American Council of Life Insurance. 48 Business and the Economy Todays Business and the Economy 49 Per Capita Personal Income Brief Explanation of the 1929 315 77 6 38 30 16 4 5 9 2 - 8 I n.a. n.a. 7 Amount Year Amount Year Year Amount Year Consumer Price Index $103 33 Year Amount Amount 1929 $705 1960 $2,219 1966 $2,987 1972 $4,493 1978 The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a meas- 1935 474 $7,729 1961 2,269 1967 3,167 1973 4,980 1979 8,638 ure of the average change in prices over time 1940 593 2,373 3,433 1974 1980 in a fixed market basket of goods and services. 1933 $56 222 46 3 22 20 2 (1) 8 2 n.a. n.a. 9 25 1962 1968 5,428 1945 1,223 9,511 1963 2,460 1969 3,667 1975 5,851 1981 Effective with the January 1978 index, the 1950 1,501 10,517 1964 2,592 1970 3,893 1976 6,402 1982 1955 11,100 Bureau of Labor Statistics began publishing 1965 2,773 4,132 1977 1983 CPI's for two population groups: (1) a new 1938 $85 312 64 9 34 24 9 2 2 3 13 5 1,881 1971 I n.a. n.a. 8 27 7,043 11,675 CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. covers approximately 80% of the total nonin- 1946 477 144 16 83 45 31 7 7 9 stitutional civilian population; and (2) a re- $210 10 8 28 18 15 3 10 44 Median Earnings of Full-Time vised CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Cleri- Median Family Income cal Workers (CPI-W) which represents about Women Workers (in current dollars) half the population covered by the CPI-U. The CPI-U includes, in addition to wage 1950 $286 534 192 31 98 63 54 20 6 18 L 2 38 19 14 5 20 54 (persons 15 years and over) earners and clerical workers, groups that his- Percent Percent Year Income torically have been excluded from CPI cover- As percent change Year Income change age, such as professional, managerial, and 1982 1960 $ 5,620 $17,640 technical workers, the self-employed, short- 1955 $399 655 254 39 123 92 68 24 14 24 9 2 75 44 38 9 E 19 of men's Major occupation group earnings earnings - 1978 10.2 1970 9,867 - 1979 19,661 11.5 term workers, the unemployed, and retirees Professional and technical workers $18,423 65.9 1972 11,116 1980 and others not in the labor force. - 21,023 6.9 12,051 The CPI is based on prices of food, cloth- 1960 $506 737 325 43 151 131 76 24 18 30 4 4 100 54 44 6 47 69 Nonfarm managers and 1973 8.4 1981 22,388 6.5 administrators 17,326 60.1 1974 12,902 7.1 1982 23,433 4.7 ing, shelter, and fuels, transportation fares, Clerical workers 12,693 61.9 1975 13,719 6.3 1983 24,580 4.9 charges for doctors' and dentists' services, Sales workers 11,002 50.2 drugs, and the other goods and services that Operatives (including transport) 11,369 79.6 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. people buy for day-to-day living. Prices are 1965 $688 926 430 63 189 179 112 31 26 46 10 8 138 67 49 18 71 74 Service workers (except private NOTE: Figures are latest available. collected in 85 urban areas across the country household) 8,565 59.2 from about 18,000 tenants, 18,000 housing All occupations 13,014 61.7 units for property taxes, and about 24,000 establishments-grocery and department 1970 619 265 269 36 38 64 4 4 $982 1,075 85 141 219 96 74 22 123 91 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Cen- stores, hospitals, filling stations, and other sus. types of stores and service establishments. All Gross National Product or Expenditure 1975 $1,529 1,202 980 133 409 438 189 52 53 96 20 taxes directly associated with the purchase 339 123 84 39 216 127 Median Weekly Earnings of Full-Time Workers by Occupation and Sex and the use of items are included in the index. Prices of food, fuels, and a few other (For third-quarter of 1983) items are obtained every month in all 85 loca- tions. Prices of most other commodities and (in billions) 1978 $2,128 1,399 1,351 200 531 620 352 108 77 145 22 -10 436 153 99 54 283 150 MEN services are collected every month in the five WOMEN TOTAL largest geographic areas and every other Number of Median Number of Median Number of Median month in other areas. Prices of most goods workers weekly workers weekly workers weekly and services are obtained by personal visits 1979 (in thousands) earnings (in thousands) earnings of the Bureau's trained representatives. Mail $2,414 1,483 1,511 212 602 696 416 119 96 186 18 13 474 168 111 57 306 163 Occupation earnings (in thousands) questionnaires are used to obtain public util- Managerial and professional specialty 10,204 $550 7,094 $363 17,298 $445 ity rates, some fuel prices, and certain other Executive, administrative, and managerial 5,407 568 2,746 347 8,153 476 items. 1980 Professional specialty 4,797 4,348 371 $2,626 1,481 1,673 212 676 785 395 105 109 190 -6 23 535 199 132 67 336 177 533 9,145 431 In calculating the index, price changes for Technical, sales, and administrative support 8,372 402 14,014 247 22,386 287 the varioús items in each location are aver- Technicians and related support 1,472 444 1,228 304 2,700 367 aged together with weights that represent Sales occupations 3,969 407 2,517 208 6,486 316 their importance in the spending of the ap- 1981 $2,926 1,510 1,858 232 743 883 451 106 126 206 16 26 591 230 154 76 361 194 Administrative support, including clerical 2,931 370 10,269 248 13,200 266 propriate population group. Local data are Service occupations 3,945 258 3,849 176 7,793 208 then combined to obtain a U.S. city average. Private household 13 (1) 288 112 302 113 Separate indexes are also published by size of Protective service 1,400 356 155 241 city, by region of the country, for cross- 1982 $3,073 1,485 1,992 245 761 986 414 91 348 3.2 1,555 345 -24.5 17.4 649 649 259 179 79 415 Service, except private household classification of regions and population-size and protective 2,532 223 3,405 179 5,937 194 classes, and for 28 local areas. Area indexes Precision production, craft, and repair 9,718 404 782 243 10,500 392 do not measure differences in the level of Mechanics and repairers 3,544 110 365 394 1983 $3,311 1,538 2,157 279 804 1,074 471 131 349 3.6 -8.7 I'L- 690 690 275 200 75 391 396 3,654 Construction trades prices among cities; they measure only the 3,265 396 50 (1) 3,315 392 Other precision production, craft, average change in prices for each area since and repair the base period. 2,909 417 622 237 3,531 390 The index measures price changes from a Operators, fabricators, and laborers 10,349 316 3,523 207 13,873 279 Machine operators, assemblers, and designated reference date-1967-which inspectors equals 100.0. An increase of 122%, for exam- 4,350 327 2,830 205 7,180 266 Transportation and material moving ple, is shown as 222.0. This change can also 1. Less than $500 million. NOTE: n.a. not available. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. be expressed in dollars as follows: The price occupations 3,267 345 157 239 3,424 341 of a base period "market basket" of goods and Handlers, equipment cleaners, helpers, services in the CPI has risen from $10 in 1967 and laborers 2,733 243 536 211 3,269 239 to $22.20. Item Farming, forestry, and fishing 1,324 198 215 175 1,539 194 ment and Earnings," January 1984. 1. Data not shown where base is less than 100,000. Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Employ- Gross national product GNP in constant (1972) dollars Personal consumption expenditures Durable goods Nondurable goods Services Gross private domestic investment Residential structures Nonresidential structures Producers' durable equipment Change in business inventories Net export of goods and services Government purchases Federal National defense Other State and local Implicit price deflator money-market expert who popu- wth stock" investment concept. BUSINESS & THE ECONOMY British novelist and playwright portraits with sharp and humor- tones. Aug. 14, 1984. best-selling historical novelist history and legends of ancient The King Must Die" and "The Consumer Price Indexes Dec. 13, 1983. 80: renowned English actor- (1967 = 100) spanned more than 60 years. Commod- Ser- Hous- All Percent Commod- Ser- Hous- All Percent 82: a leading British actress, Year ities vices ing items change¹ Year ities vices ing items change¹ Dame Commander of Order 1960. July 7, 1984. 1940 40.6 43.6 52.4 42.0 1.0 1975 158.4 166.6 166.8 161.2 8.9 NBC News anchorwoman, 1945 56.3 48.2 59.1 53.9 2.3 1977 174.7 194.3 186.5 181.5 6.5 of a car accident. Oct. 24, 1950 78.8 58.7 72.8 72.1 1.0 1979 208.4 234.2 227.6 217.4 11.3 1955 85.1 70.9 82.3 80.2 -0.4 1980 233.9 270.3 263.3 246.8 13.6 (AI), 91: major league player 1960 91.5 83.5 90.2 88.7 1.6 1981 253.6 305.7 293.5 272.4 10.4 as Clown Prince of Baseball. 1965 95.7 92.2 94.9 94.5 1.7 1982 263.8 333.3 314.7 289.1 6.1 1970 113.5 121.6 118.9 116.3 5.9 1983 270.9 342.6 322.0 297.1 3.5 innovative. American theatrical Beckett, Albee, Pinter, Brecht, Injured in traffic accident. May 1. Over previous year. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 78: Russian author of "And Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers and other works that won terature in 1965. Feb. 21, (1967 = 100) Ther, 54: the younger sister of Feb. % increase Feb. % increase and Baptist evangelist and Group 1984 Oct.-Feb. Group 1984 Oct.-Feb. ancer. Sept. 26, 1983. Scottish-born conductor and All items 306.6 1.4 Fuel oil, coal, bottled gas 688.6 9.3 Baltimore Symphony and di- Food 302.1 3.1 House operation¹ 240.4 0.5 onservatory.) July 8, 1984. Alcoholic beverages 219.9 0.5 House furnishings 197.6 0.2 62: president of Guinea and Apparel and upkeep 196.2 -2.3 Transportation 305.8 0.0 t-ruling head of state. March Men's and boys' apparel 187.9 -2.2 Medical care 373.2 2.8 Women's and girls' apparel 159.0 -6.0 Personal care 267.9 1.8 played key role in develop- Footwear 206.4 -1.1 Tobacco products 305.4 2.1 nd known as one of greatest Housing, total 331.0 1.3 Entertainment 251.5 0.1 maticians. May 13, 1984. Rent 243.6 1.4 Personal and educational South African Prime Minister Gas and electricity 429.0 -1.5 expenses 354.4 0.1 0 was a symbol of apartheid. 1. Combines house furnishings and operation. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 78: former head of U.S. dele- Represented U.S. at nu- with Soviet Union in Geneva March 13, 1984. Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers 94: co-founder and longtime (1967 = 100) Digest whose philantropic of millions of dollars. May Effective January 1978, the Consumer Price Index was revised, with two indexes now being produced: A new index for All Urban Consumers covers 80% of the non-institutional population; the other index, the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, covers about half of those included in the new index and is a major revision of the one that Structor of choral and orches- had been published for many years. last great conductors of Big Waring Blendor. July 29, 1984¹ 1983 1980 1975 1970 1965 1960 1955 1950 Olympic swimming cham- All items 303.3 301.5 247.0 161.2 116.3 94.5 88.7 80.2 72.1 Tarzan of the Jungle in a Food total 302.1 292.6 255.3 175.4 114.9 94.4 88.0 81.6 - 20, 1984. Apparel and upkeep 195.4 198.1 177.4 142.3 116.1 93.7 89.6 84.1 79.0 of popular short stories Backers set in her native Indi- Housing total 324.2 324.2 263.2 166.8 118.9 94.9 90.2 82.3 72.8 Rent 242.9 241.3 191.3 137.3 110.1 96.9 91.7 84.3 70.4 Gas and electricity 427.9 426.7 301.2 169.6 107.3 99.4 98.6 87.5 81.2 composer, author of Broad- Fuel oil, coal, bottled gas 691.4 626.4 557.2 253.3 110.1 94.6 89.2 82.3 72.7 n." June 15, 1984. House operation² 237.4 237.3 202.9 158.1 113.4 95.3 93.8 89.9 - Actress for nearly a century House furnishings 196.0 196.9 172.6 144.4 111.4 97.1 99.3 99.2 95.5 arances. on stage, screen, Transportation 307.7 308.2 250.5 150.6 112.7 95.9 89.6 77.4 68.2 1984. Medical care 371.3 364.3 267.2 168.6 120.6 89.5 79.1 64.8 53.7 Israel's war of independ- Personal care 266.1 264.4 212.7 150.7 113.2 95.2 90.1 77.9 68.3 Prime Minister in 1977- Entertainment 247.7 245.8 203.7 144.4 113.4 95.9 87.3 76.7 74.4 must devoted to discovering June 28, 1984. 1. May 1984. 2. Combines house furnishings and operation. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 47 434 Income, Expenditures, and Wealth No. No. 702. Relation of GNP, Net National Product, National Income, Personal Income, Disposable Personal Income, and Personal Saving: 1970 to 1989 (In billions of dollars. For definitions, see text, section 14] TYPE OF INC National Income ITEM 1970 1975 1980 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 Compensation of employe Gross national product 1,015.5 1,598.4 2,732.0 3,772.2 4,014.9 4,231.6 4,515.6 4,873.7 5,200.8 Wages and salaries Less: Capital consumption allowances 1 88.8 161.8 303.8 415.5 437.2 460.1 487.0 514.3 Government and gov 554.4 Equals: Net national product 2 926.6 1,436.6 2,428.1 3,356.8 3,577.6 3,771.5 4,028.6 4,359.4 4,646.4 enterprises Less: Indirect business tax and nontax Other liability 94.0 140.0 213.3 313.9 333.6 348.9 367.8 388.7 414.0 Supplements to wages Plus: Subsidies 3. 2.9 2.4 5.7 9.9 7.2 12.8 17.4 16.2 Employer contribution Equals: National Income 2 6.3 832.6 1,289.1 2,203.5 3,028.6 3,234.0 3,412.6 3,660.3 3,984.9 insurance 4,223.3 Less: Corporate profits 74.7 117.6 177.2 266.9 282.3 282.1 308.3 337.6 Other labor income 311.6 Net interest 41.2 83.8 200.9 304.8 319.0 325.5 328.6 371.8 445.1 Proprietors' income Contributions for social insurance 62.2 118.5 216.5 324.9 354.1 379.2 400.1 442.6 476.8 Farm Plus: Government transfer payments to Nonfarm persons 81.8 185.7 312.6 437.9 467.8 496.8 521.3 557.4 604.5 Rental income of persons Personal interest income 69.3 122.5 271.9 444.7 478.0 493.2 501.3 547.9 643.2 Corporate profits Personal dividend income 22.2 28.7 52.9 75.5 78.7 85.8 91.8 102.2 Corporate profits 3 114.4 Business transfer payments 4.1 7.4 12.1 18.7 22.0 24.6 28.5 30.3 Profits before tax. 32.4 Equals: Personal income 831.8 1,313.4 2,258.5 3,108.7 3,325.3 3,526.2 3,766.4 4,070.8 ,384.3 Profits tax liability Less: Personal tax and nontax payments 116.2 170.6 340.5 440.2 486.6 512.9 591.6 Profits after tax 571.6 658.8 Dividends. Equals: Disposable personal Income 715.6 1,142.8 1,918.0 2,668.6 2,838.7 3,013.3 3,194.7 3,479.2 3,725.5 Less: Personal outlays 657.9 1,038.2 1,781.1 2,504.5 2,713.3 2,888.5 3,102.2 3,333.6 3,553.7 Undistributed pro Equals: Personal saving 57.7 104.6 136.9 164.1 125.4 124.9 92.5 145.6 171.8 Inventory valuation ac Capital consumption adj 1 With capital consumption adjustment. 2 Includes items not shown separately. 3 Less current surplus of government Net interest enterprises. With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Addenda: Corporate profits 1 after ta Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, The National Income and Product Accounts of the United States, 1929-82, and Net cash flow Survey of Current Business, July issues. Undistributed profits Capital consumption Less: Inventory valuat No. 703. Selected Per Capita Income and Product Items: 1929 to 1989 Equals: Net cash flow 1 With inventory valua [Based on Bureau of the Census estimated population including Armed Forces abroad; based on quarterly averages. Prior to 1960, excludes Alaska and Hawaii] valuation adjustment. Source: U.S. Bureau 0 CURRENT DOLLARS CONSTANT (1982) DOLLARS Survey of Current Business Personal Personal YEAR Gross Dispos- Personal Gross Dispos- able consump- national tion national able per- consump- tion income product personal sonal income expendi- product income expendi- tures tures 1929 853 692 671 634 5,822 4,091 3,868 1930 740 613 593 568 5,218 3,727 3,569 1935 572 469 455 438 4,555 3,359 3,236 SECTOR 1940 760 587 568 538 5,850 4,017 3,804 1945 1,525 1,215 1,066 855 9,682 5,285 4,236 National income Domestic business 1950 1,900 1,504 1,368 1,267 7,935 5,220 4,834 Corporate business. 1955 2,456 1,901 1,687 1,560 9,045 5,714 5,287 Compensation of empi 1960 2,851 2,265 1,986 1,829 9,213 6,036 5,561 Corporate profits 1965 3,628 2,840 2,505 2,268 10,741 7,027 6,362 Net interest 1970 4,951 4,056 3,489 3,121 11,781 8,134 7,275 Sole proprietorships and Compensation of empi 1971 5,309 4,305 3,740 3,330 11,964 8,322 7,409 Proprietors' income 1972 5,777 4,676 4,000 3,609 12,426 8,562 7,726 Net interest 1973 6,414 5,198 4,481 3,950 12,948 9,042 7,972 Other private business 2 1974 6,886 5,657 4,855 4,285 12,760 8,867 7,826 Compensation of emplo 1975 7,401 6,081 5,291 4,689 12,478 8,944 7,926 Proprietors' income Rental income of perso 1976 8,175 6,655 5,744 5,178 12,961 9,175 8,272 Net interest 1977 9,036 7,297 6,262 5,707 13,431 9,381 8,551 Government enterprises 1978 10,105 8,141 6,968 6,304 13,993 9,735 8,808 Households and institutions 4 1979 11,142 9,036 7,682 6,960 14,182 9,829 8,904 Government 1980 11,995 9,916 8,421 7,607 13,994 9,722 8,783 Rest of the world 1981 13,262 10,952 9,243 8,320 14,114 9,769 8,794 1 With inventory valuatic 1982 13,614 11,485 9,724 8,818 13,614 9,725 8,818 income tax return in Sche 1983 14,503 12,088 10,340 9,516 13,964 9,930 9,139 housing and buildings and e 1984 15,913 13,114 11,257 10,253 14,771 10,419 9,489 business activities selling th 5 1985 16,776 13,895 11,861 10,985 15,121 10,625 9,840 employees. Compensati nonprofit schools and hosp 1986 17,511 14,592 12,469 11,576 15,385 10,905 10,123 individuals. 1987 18,508 15,437 13,094 12,334 15,761 10,946 10,311 Source: U.S. Bureau of 1988 19,783 16,524 14,123 13,144 16,305 11,368 10,580 Survey of Current Business, 1989 20,903 17,621 14,973 13,866 16,550 11,531 10,678 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, The National Income and Product Accounts of the United States, 1929-82, and Survey of Current Business, July issues. 438 Income, Expenditures, and Wealth No. 708. Personal Income and Its Disposition: 1970 to 1989 [In millions of dollars, excep annual percen [In billions of dollars, except percent. For definition of personal income, see text, section 14] ITEM 1970 1980 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 Personal Income 831.8 2,258.5 3,108.7 3,325.3 3,526.2 3,766.4 4,070.8 4,384.3 DIVISION AND STATE Wage and salary disbursements 551.5 1,372.0 1,838.6 1,975.4 2,094.8 2,249.7 2,431.1 2,573.2 Commodity-producing industries 203.7 470.7 577.6 608.9 625.6 649.9 696.4 720.6 Manufacturing 158.4 355.6 439.1 460.9 473.2 490.3 524.0 541.8 United States Distributive industries 2 131.2 335.5 442.8 473.2 498.8 531.8 572.0 604.7 Service industries 99.4 305.6 472.1 521.3 576.7 648.5 716.2 771.4 260.2 346.1 372.0 393.7 419.4 446.6 476.6 New England Government and gov't enterprises 117.1 Other labor income 32.5 138.4 182.9 187.6 199.3 209.4 225.5 241.9 Maine 4 Proprietors' income 80.2 180.7 234.5 255.9 282.0 379.3 New Hampshire 323.4 354.2 Rental income of persons 5 18.2 6.6 8.5 9.2 11.6 13.7 8.2 Vermont 16.3 78.7 85.8 91.8 102.2 114.4 Massachusetts Personal dividend income 22.2 52.9 75.5 Personal interest income 69.3 271.9 444.7 478.0 493.2 643.2 Rhode Island 501.3 547.9 Transfer payments 85.9 324.7 456.6 489.8 521.5 549.9 587.7 636.9 Connecticut Old-age, survivors, disability, and health insurance benefits 38.5 154.2 235.7 253.4 269.2 282.9 300.5 325.3 Middle Atlantic 16.3 14.5 13.4 14.7 New York Gov't unemployment insurance benefits 4.0 16.1 15.8 15.7 Veterans benefits 7.7 15.0 16.4 16.7 16.7 16.6 16.9 17.3 New Jersey Gov't employees retirement benefits 10.2 43.0 61.4 66.8 70.9 76.2 84.0 90.1 Pennsylvania Other transfer payments 25.6 96.4 127.3 137.3 148.3 159.7 172.9 189.5 East North Central Less: Personal contributions for 172.9 194.1 212.8 Ohio social insurance 27.9 88.6 132.7 149.3 161.9 Less: Personal tax and nontax payments 116.2 340.5 440.2 486.6 512.9 571.6 591.6 658.8 Indiana Illinois Equals: Disposable personal Income 715.6 1,918.0 2,668.6 2,838.7 3,013.3 3,194.7 3,479.2 3,725.5 Less: Personal outlays 657.9 1,781.1 2,504.5 2,713.3 2,888.5 3,102.2 3,333.6 3,553.7 Michigan 3,009.4 3,238.2 3,450.1 Wisconsin Personal consumption expenditures. 640.0 1,732.6 2,430.5 2,629.0 2,797.4 Interest paid by consumers to business 16.7 47.4 72.5 82.6 89.1 90.7 93.6 102.2 West North Central Personal transfer payments to foreigners (net) 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.2 1.9 1.4 Minnesota Equals: Personal saving 57.7 136.9 164.1 125.4 124.9 92.5 145.6 171.8 lowa 4.2 4.6 Missouri Percent of disposable personal 6 income 8.1 7.1 6.1 4.4 4.1 2.9 Real disposable personal income 1,668.1 2,214.3 2,469.8 2,542.8 2,635.3 2,670.7 2,800.5 2,869.0 North Dakota Average annual percent change 4.1 2.9 2.8 3.0 3.6 1.3 4.9 2.4 South Dakota Nebraska Kansas PERCENT DISTRIBUTION Personal income 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 South Atlantic Wage and salary disbursements 66.3 60.7 59.1 59.4 59.4 59.7 59.7 58.7 Delaware Other labor income 3.9 6.1 5.9 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5 Maryland 4 Proprietors' income 9.6 8.0 7.5 7.7 8.0 8.6 8.7 8.7 District of Columbia 5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 Virginia Rental income of persons 2.2 Personal dividend income 2.7 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 West Virginia North Carolina Personal interest income 8.3 12.0 14.3 14.4 14.0 13.3 13.5 14.7 Transfer payments 10.3 14.4 14.7 14.7 14.8 14.6 14.5 South Carolina 14.4 Georgia Less: Personal contributions for social -4.5 -4.6 -4.6 -4.8 -4.9 Florida. insurance -3.4 -3.9 -4.3 1 Comprises agriculture, forestry, fisheries, mining, construction, and manufacturing. 2 Comprises transportation; commu- East South Central nication; electric, gas and sanitary services; and trade. 3 Comprises finance, insurance, and real estate; services; and 6 rest of Kentucky world. 4 With capital consumption and inventory valuation adjustments. 5 With capital consumption adjustment. 1982 Tennessee Alabama dollars. Represents average for period of intervals shown here; for 1970, change from 1965. For explanation of average annual Mississippi percent change, see Guide to Tabular Presentation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, The National Income and Product Accounts of the United States, 1929-82, and West South Central. Arkansas Survey of Current Business, July issues. Louisiana Oklahoma No. 709. Gross Saving and Investment: 1970 to 1989 Texas Mountain [In billions of dollars] Montana Idaho ITEM 1970 1980 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 Wyoming Colorado Gross saving 154.7 445.0 446.4 463.6 568.5 533.5 525.3 555.5 656.1 691.5 New Mexico Gross private saving 164.5 478.4 557.1 592.2 673.5 665.3 669.5 662.6 751.3 779.3 Arizona Personal saving 57.7 136.9 153.9 130.6 164.1 125.4 124.9 92.5 145.6 171.8 Utah 1 Undistributed corporate profits 17.9 37.7 20.0 65.0 94.0 102.6 84.5 83.2 91.4 53.0 Nevada Undistributed profits 19.2 97.6 39.6 58.9 67.0 44.6 24.0 50.2 70.5 49.1 Inventory valuation adjustment. -6.6 -43.1 -10.4 -10.9 -5.8 -1.7 6.7 -19.4 -27.0 -21.7 Pacific Capital consumption adjustment. 5.2 -16.8 -9.2 17.0 32.7 59.7 53.8 52.4 47.8 25.5 Washington Corporate CCA 2 52.0 181.4 235.0 242.7 254.5 268.6 285.9 303.2 322.1 346.4 Oregon Noncorporate CCA 36.9 122.4 148.2 153.9 160.9 168.7 174.2 183.8 192.2 208.0 California Government surplus or deficit (-) 3 -10.6 -34.5 -110.8 -128.6 -105.0 -131.8 -144.1 -107.1 -95.3 -87.8 Alaska Federal. -12.4 -61.3 -145.9 -176.0 -169.6 -196.9 -206.9 -158.2 -141.7 -134.3 Hawaii State and local 1.8 26.8 35.1 47.5 64.6 65.1 62.8 51.0 46.5 46.4 Capital grants received by the U.S. (net) 0.9 1.2 Source: U.S. Bureau Gross Investment. 153.6 450.0 446.3 468.8 573.9 528.7 523.6 544.9 627.8 674.4 Gross private domestic investment 148.8 437.0 447.3 502.3 664.8 643.1 659.4 699.5 747.1 771.2 Net foreign investment 4.8 13.0 -1.0 -33.5 -90.9 -114.4 -135.8 -154.6 -119.2 -96.8 Statistical discrepancy -1.1 4.9 -0.1 5.2 5.4 -4.8 -1.8 -10.6 -28.2 -17.0 Represents or rounds to zero. 1 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. 2 Capital consumption allowances with capital consumption adjustment. 3 National income and product accounts basis. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, The National Income and Product Accounts of the United States, 1929-82, and Survey of Current Business, July issues. ried through a tradi- create ultrafast com- t OMNI, we selves, we arrived at genes can manufac- this month's dover tional copper-cable puters or tiny ma- ture pharmaceuticals spend a good story-a casserole, if telephone wire. Over chines that can enter in their milk. When deal of time the next few decades, you will, of items the body and de- looking at science, bovine drug "pharms" we feel are interest- as phone companies liver drugs or perform technology, and are working full force, the future, encoun- ing, imaginative, and replace copper wire precise surgical they'll eliminate the with fiber-optic cable, functions. tering far more important. Some need for expensive ideas innovations we ve covered in they will be able to drug factories. What's offer film libraries and and insights than we OMNI before; others interactive information 8 more, the genetically could ever cover in may be new to you. engineered COWS the pages of a Some are old; others services. Fiber-optic will reproduce them- monthly magazine. lie on the cutting technologies are revolu- HUMAN GENOME selves with each new tionizing medicine. PROJECT: The mam- In discussions with edge of speculation. generation. scientists and lead If you'd like to see us Fiber-optic instru- moth effort to identify ers of technology, cover any of these ments, for instance, and map the 100,000 wide reading, reflec items in greater allow physicians 10 to view and treat the tion, and conver- depth, please drop sations among our- us a line. body internally with- SUPER- out surgery. CONDUCTIVITY: What do high-speed some scientists split computers and the difference and super-efficient pow- 1 say the universe is er generation have 15 billion years old, in common? They based on evidence are tantalizing prod- SCIENCE is the or- and research as ucts promised by derly arrangement well as supposition researchers working of knowledge about to develop supercon- the universe and its 4 ductors-materials workings, derived that conduct electrici- from careful observa- individual genes with- ty with almost no tion, recording, analy- ASTROLOGY: is not, in the 46 chromo- resistance and little sis, and repeated and never has been, a somes of the human loss of power. Until testing of conclusions. science. 6 body. Taking some $3 recently, the best billion and 15 years to superconductors re- 2 complete, the govern- quired extremely cold TOP TOMATO: Atha- ment-sponsored pro- temperatures. The dis- nasios Theologis and ject may prove even covery of high-temper- TECHNOLOGY is 5 colleagues at the more ambitious-and ature, ceramic-based science put to practi- Plant Gene Expres- fruitful. Knowing the superconductors in cal use. sion Center in Albany, sequence of the 3 1986, however, made FIBER OPTICS: More California, have built a billion base pairs of the early promise of 3 than 20 years ago, top tomato: Their new the human genome superconductivity a Corning Glass Works plants, produced via DNA that contain our real possibility for introduced optical fi- genetic engineering, genetic heritage may these and many other THE AGE OF bers-glass threads, take more than twice one day allow re- applications. THE UNI- as long to ripen as searchers to diagnose VERSE: Most ordinary tomatoes. As and treat inherited scientists today put a result, the tomatoes disorders as well as the age of our uni- will stay fresh on long currently incurable dis- verse at 10 to 20 bil- journeys across the eases such as cancer lion years. However, country or even and AIDS. EARTH The earth, around the world. entists generally. 7 9 agree is about 4.6 billion years old* or 10 billion or so years PHARMACOW- younger thanthe NANOTECHNOLOGY LOGY: We may soon universe TAKES JAPAN: The be using bovine facto- Japanese have a new ries to manufacture smaller than rage: nanotechnolo- drugs. Researchers a human gy, where technology from Britain's Agricul- hair, capa- is built from molecular tural and Food Re- ble of carry- parts. Building ma- search Council, and a ing per- chines that have company called Phar- haps a thou- working parts the size maceutical Proteins, sand times of molecules, sci- have shown that COWS the data car- entists will eventually endowed with foreign ac- voluminous applica- central computer that the act. The giant alternate ways of als 12 tion to the U.S. Patent will tell the weights pharmaceutical firm producing our food. Office. Venter's mis- how to respond in Merck & Company One possible solution ns" sion: patenting some order to stabilize the has decided to collab- was recently suggest- ce, CHAOS: Chaos 348 new human building. Before such orate with scientists ed by an expert panel challenges the deter genes. As we usher in buildings become com- from Cornell Universi- of the National Re- ministic notion, the the new year, the U.S. monplace, however, ty to collect samples search Council. In- bedrock of West- Patent Office is hold- the world may experi- of plant and inverte- stead of full-sized ern science that ing its breath, expect- ence disastrous trem- brate species in the livestock, the panel one can predict ing a gold gene rush ors-some in our own future events by of scientists arriving to backyards. An earth- N gathering enough patent every manner quake of magnitude 6 information Chaot- of human gene. But on the Richter scale, ic systems, how Maynard Olson, a similar to the San ever, appear to Washington University Francisco quake of have an underly- geneticist and mem- 1989, is likely to strike ing, unexpected, ber of the Human along the Midwest's order; when plotted Genome Project's ad- New Madrid fault- graphically, they visory panel, thinks site of a series of di yield elegant geo patenting human DNA severe quakes in metric patterns Sci is a philosophically iffy 1811-by the year W- entists have taken idea. "It's like patent- 2000. ve ey d- THINGS g YOU MUST KNOW ABOUT to the task of finding order in dynamic systems SCIENCE, once believed to be random TECHNOLOGY, 13 AND YOUR FUTURE THE GENE RACE: On June 20, 1991, the ARTICLE BY National Institutes of Health presented biol- THE OMNI STAFF ogist Craig Venter's ing the periodic ta- Costa Rican forest. suggested, we should ble," he says. Naked The hope is that some turn to "microlive- DNA sequences be- of the species will be stock"-miniature ver- long to all. used to make new sions of cattle, sheep, drugs. Profits from the goats, and pigs, and 14 drugs, in turn, will be other diminutive spe- poured back into a cies, including the fund for saving the giant rat. "Like com- EARTHQUAKE rain forest. puters, livestock for PROTECTION: Using use in developing "smart" technology, WORRIES countries should be future builders will getting smaller and fashion structures able 16 becoming more 'per- to shake off earth- quakes by incorporat- 15 sonal,'" the NRC report said. "Con- ing massive weights DIET FOR A ventional 'mainframes' or braces that coun- RAIN FOREST, INC.: SMALL PLANET: As such as cattle are too teract the oscillations. When it comes to humans take up more large for the world's Sensors will transmit saving the rain forest, and more space on poorest people; they information about seis- multinational corpora- the planet, we may require too much mic vibrations to a tions are getting into have to come up with space and expense." 19 Scientists are worried 17 that food production or the earth's capacity BIODIVER- GREENHOUSE to absorb waste may not keep up with SITY: Scattered EFFECT: During the demand. Moreover, among hundreds of summer drought of with widespread de- thousands of plant 1988, alarmed scien- forestation, the need species lies a wealth tists sounded a dire for firewood, the Third of genetic information. warning: The world is World's principal fuel, Many of the species growing dangerously will increasingly ex- have never even been warmer, due to the ceed sustainable identified, much less greenhouse effect- QUESTIONS KIDS ASK beach is not miniscule yields. Other forces studied. Most of them shavings of rock, as never will be. Selec- may serve to curb the population crisis: Sci- 23 you might think. In- tive breeding practic- stead, it's the skele- ence may develop es of modern agricul- tons of ancient plants ways to accelerate MOON IN MOTION: and animals. Some of ture and widespread deforestation are kill- food production, and The moon has earth- those organisms used disease, already wreak- ing them off at quakes-or, more ac- calcium, either as part ing havoc in the Third breakneck speed. curately, moonquakes. of their own skeletons World, is sure to With each dies a Most of these very or as a shelter. Others library of genetic devastate pockets of weak quakes are were literally made of information, possibly the earth's people. caused by tidal forces glass and absorbed including the clues to resulting from in- silica, the main ingre- kicking cancer or 21 creases in the Earth's dient in glass, from feeding a hungry gravity as the moon sea water and ocean- moves closer to the world. floor clay. Over the OZONE MADNESS: Earth during part of its years, water and other 18 Stratospheric ozone orbit. Others most organisms ground levels over Antarctica likely occur when these plants and the process by which have reached the carbon dioxide and lowest levels ever LEAD ON ICE: Green- land's ice serves as other gases from recorded, according power plants and to recent satellite an invaluable monitor 24 automobiles absorb of lead pollution. Two reports. In other the sun's infrared words, that ozone decades ago, scien-, THUNDER: is rays, much like the hole is now immense. tists found that lead walls of a greenhouse. Watch out for an caused by lightning; concentration in Green- The experts cautioned increase in skin can- the two are insepara- land's ice had in- that rising tempera- cer worldwide. ble. A lightning bolt creased about 200- heats the air around it fold since ancient tures from the buildup of fossil-fuel gases 22 to 50,000°F, and this times. The pollution hot air does what would in time flood reflected the emis- coastal areas and turn every hot thing does sions of lead-based cropland to waste- it expands. This GAIA HYPOTHESIS: gasoline. Based in land. A worldwide In 1972, British scien- incredibly fast expan- part on this research, debate, however, is tist James Lovelock sion produces a governmental bodies sound akin to a sonic also warming up. had a vision: The around the world boom: Other scientists have began limiting the earth was a giant characterized the tem- amount of lead added living organism whose perature increase as a to fuel. It may work: In bodily functions were molten or partly mol- animals down into the typical climate shift. a recent study of the atmosphere, the ten rock below the granules of sand that Greenland ice, lead seas, life itself. Calling moon's surface shifts. concentration had 20 form our beaches. By his theory Gaia ('guy- Moonquakes last long- the way, the grayish decreased by a factor ah') for the mother er than earthquakes- sand usually found of 7.5. Earth goddess, Love- the landing of the elsewhere, like in your POPULATION lock proposed that Apollo 12 lunar mod- backyard, did indeed EXPLOSION: The environment and life ule set the moon come from the erosion world presently sup- are two parts of a vibrating for more than of rocks. ports more than 5 single system which two hours. billion people. Be- interact in a self- cause population regulating and self- growth is exponential, correcting way. Critics 25 26 a staggering 10 say Gaia can't be DON'T SUCK: Doc- billion people will proven and therefore SKELETON BEACH: tors now know that the share the planet's is more akin to That soft, white sand time-honored advice diminishing resources philosophy or religion, you curl your toes in for treating a snake by the year 2025. not science. when you go to the bite-making an inci- sion at the bite and victim is better off than cortex is 10 times as sucking out the ven- if it was looking for great as a monkey's; om-doesn't really food; it injects more 1000 times as great as work and may do venom into its prey to a rat's. more harm than good. paralyze or kill it The incision is prone quickly. to infection, and the 33 suction method has been found to remove 27 ACME CELLS: One at best just 18 percent typical neuron, a of the venom. Also, ICE is denser than pyramidal cell, has up doctors recommend room-temperature wa- to 100,000 specific trying to slow the ter, and heat rises. connections to other circulation of blood Sunlight should heat cells. "The pyramidal with something like an the surface of cell is the acme of Ace bandage rather water faster than biochemical evolu- than trying to stop it water at the bottom. tion."-Dominick Pur- with ice or a tourni- So why doesn't ice pura, Dean, Albert quet; the bitten area form on the bottom, Einstein College of badly needs blood to instead of the top of Medicine, New York. reduce potential tis- bodies of water? It together and expand, takes its time to sue damage. And if turns out that water remaining on the revolve: 230 million the snake attacked in reaches its greatest surface because of years, known as one 34 self-defense, the bite density before it freez- their lower density. galactic year. The es-at 39.2° F heit. Milky Way has only MORE THAN SEE: It then expands as it freezes, so the water 28 been around for about There are 125 million 52 galactic years, rods and cones in the between 39.2° and or 12 billion years. Our retina whose impulses 32° (the freezing SALT in the oceans sun, the earth, and follow the pathway to point) is less dense comes from several the other planets trek the primary visual and thus rises to the sources: minerals over a million cortex, the size of a surface. As water at from eroded rocks trillion miles each postage stamp. In the freezing point that are carried into galactic year. monkeys, the primary turns into ice, the the ocean by rivers, visual cortex is 15 various crystals bond volcanic rock, and GRAY MATTERS percent of the whole basalt that erupts up Hail to Thee, 0 Isaac one. Asimov's Bio- from below the Asimov! graphical Encyclo- ocean floor. The con- How to pick the pedia Of Science & centration of salt best out of Asimov's Technology-The has remained stable science books? women and men at about 3.5 percent Not easy. But those behind the history.- for about 1.5 billion of us who have read Asimov's Chronology years. and loved Isaac's Of Science & Dis- work have learned covery-Who did from him that the what, and when. The 29 easy way is rarely Human Body-How the right or the best we work. The Human LIGHT WEIGHT: A way. Brain-How we square mile of sunlight surface of the cortex; Here's my pick of think. Understanding weighs about three pounds. Sunlight has 31 in humans, 3 percent, the 10 best of Isaac Physics-Hard sci- meaning humans Asimov's science ence made simple. weight because it have five times as books.-Keith Ferrell Realm Of Numbers- exerts pressure on CONNECTED: There much higher process- Asimov's New Trouble with arithme- anything it encoun- are 200 billion neu- ing of initial visual Guide To Science— tic? Read this. Es- ters. If all the sunlight rons in the brain; 10 to images. Every home needs says-Any of Isaac's reaching Earth could 50 times that many collections of suc- be weighed, it would glial, nutritional, and cint articles and tip the scales at more "support" cells; mil- 35 essays. Our Angry than 87,000 tons. lions of trillions of Planet-Written with connections between BRAIN GENES: Only Frederik Pohl, this is an eloquent exami- 30 these cells. 1 million genes are necessary to encode nation of the dam- GALAXY IN 32 for the growth, devel- age we're doing to opment, and function our world. Atom-A MOTION: Like the plan- of the brain through- new book and a ets, our galaxy, ON THE SURFACE: out life. masterpiece. the Milky Way, re- The surface area of volves. The galaxy the human cerebral CONTINUED ON PAGE 104 A person in a promises to alter, fending virus later 36 persistent vegetative perhaps forever, the than those in poorer state has reflex func- worlds of entertain- families. That delayed tions but is incapable ment, education, sci- exposure may trig- HEADY WEIGHT: of any thought, intel- ence, and industry. ger abnormal cell The average brain lect, memory, speech, proliferation. weighs about three or awareness of self or pounds. Lord Byron environment. Cogni- 47 had one of the tive death: Some 50 heaviest-5 pounds, bioethicists, philoso- COMPUTER VIRUS 2.25 ounces. phers, and physicians is a piece of computer MOZART'S SKULL: think the definition of code that contains It's long been thought 37 death should be instructions to do at that the body of the expanded to include consensus is that it is least two things: Place great composer persistent vegetative the fastest computer a copy of itself in any Wolfgang Amadeus DISPROPORTION: state. in the world. The other computer sys- Mozart was lost in a The brain makes up 2 fastest computer 20 tem it contacts (for large communal to 3 percent of body 42 years ago was much, example, over a com- grave. His skull, how- weight but uses 20 much slower than the puter network) and ever, was said to percent of all oxygen. fastest computer to- perform some task, reside in Salzberg's END: Disruption of day, but both were such as placing a Mozarteum. Is it true? 38 blood flow to the brain supercomputers. To- particular message on Apparently yes, ac- for eight to ten day, a supercom- the screen. Specially cording to a group of seconds leads to puter performs around designed programs, French researchers PARTS: The limbic dysfunction; three to 100 million floating- often called vaccines, who say they have system, evolutionarily five minutes leads to point operations per can find and neutral- positively identified the older than the cere- permanent brain dam- second. ize viruses. skull. The anthroplo- bral cortex, is essen- age; after five min- gists, from the Univer- tial for behavioral and utes, death. emotional expression. 45 OUR BODIES, OUR sity of Provence, CELLS reconstructed the The hippocampus, an head in clay and area of the limbic ARTIFICIAL LIFE con- sists of manmade 48 found it matched system, is essential for historical as well as learning and memory pieces of computer contemporary portraits processing. code that behave LEUKEMIA AND THE of the composer. much like living RICH: A recent study 39 things: They repro- from the British Office AND FINALLY duce, often producing of Population Census- varied offspring; they es and Surveys shows HEARTS AND contract debilitating that children from 51 BRAINS: illnesses; they die. wealthier families are The brain uses 15 more likely to develop THE FUTURE IS: percent of all cardiac output, three-quarters 46 leukemia. The reason, a)beyond our control 43 researchers specu- (NOT!), b) where we'll of a quart to 1 quart of late, is that children in spend the rest of our blood a minute. VIRTUAL REALITY: richer families may lives, c) what we make DEPRESSING A computer hardware/ be exposed to an of- of it. 40 FIGURES: At any software technology time in the U.S., 12.6 that persuades users percent of the popula- of the "reality" of head of the research, AT THE TOP: The tion suffer from a artificial environments. brain is the enlarged mental disorder. Over 49 suspects that pater- Using optical devices, nal cocaine abuse end of the spine. 25 percent of the very fast processors, causes defects such HITCHING A RIDE population suffer a and sensors and 1 as learning disabili- 41 ON SPERM: It's mental disorder in feedback devices at- ties and memory their lifetime. tached to human known that drugs problems. taken by pregnant users, virtual reality TWO DEFINITIONS INFORMATION allows practitioners to women can damage the fetus. Recent AND A REVISION: INFORMATION move through simula- research from the Brain death: when no tions of real environ- part of the brain Temple University ments such as rooms School of Medicine- functions. Persistent and houses, to vegetative state: Part achieve the illusion of suggests that CO- of the brain is caine can hitch a HOW SUPER?: Even flight, to visit historical destroyed. The brain ride on sperm, enter computer experts antiquities or distant stem, the most primi- have a tough time the egg, and dam- worlds-all artificially tive region, usually defining a supercom- age the developing created by computer. remains mostly intact. puter. The general Still in its infancy, VR embryo. A. Yazigi, 20 DECEMBER 1991 SCiENCE VOLUME 254 NUMBER 5039 American Association for the Advancement of Science Molecule of the Year Science serves its readers as a forum for the presentation and discussion of important issues related to the advancement of science, including the presentation of minority or conflicting hen the robots of nanotechnology start playing soccer-football, they will have points of view, rather than by publishing only material on which W the perfect molecule to kick around, a buckyball, and they will have no more fun consensus has been reached. Accordingly, all articles published a in Science-including editorials, news and comment, than today's buckyball scientists. and book reviews-are signed and reflect the individual views The Molecule of the Year Award was initiated to highlight contributions in science to of the authors and not official points of view adopted by the AAAS or the institutions with which the authors are affiliated. an improved quality of life and to emphasize that most scientific discoveries are the product Publisher: Richard S. Nicholson of many dedicated workers who lay the groundwork, design the experiments, recognize the Editor: Daniel E. Koshland, Jr. importance of the unexpected, and exploit breakthroughs. Sometimes these discoveries are Deputy Editor: Ellis Rubinstein Managing Editor: Monica M. Bradford immediately applicable to practical products. In other cases they are recognized as major International Editor: Alun Anderson Deputy Editors: Philip H. Abelson (Engineering and Applied turning points following on a historical tradition that a basic new understanding of nature Sciences); John 1. Brauman (Physical Sciences); Thomas R. inevitably leads to practical applications. Such is the case in this year's selection of the Cech (Biological Sciences) Molecule of the Year: the C₆₀ molecule, referred to as buckminsterfullerene, buckyballs, or EDITORIAL STAFF Assistant Managing Editor: Dawn Bennett C₆₀. This molecule, and the family of fullerenes derived from it, were named after the Senior Editors: Eleanore Butz, Martha Coleman, Barbara architect whose geodesic dome provided a prophetic vision of its atomic counterpart and Jasny, Katrina L. Kelner, Phillip D. Szuromi, David F. Voss Associate Editors: R. Brooks Hanson, Pamela J. Hines, Kelly who was a powerful evangelist for the relation of structure to function. C₆₀ burst into LaMarco, Linda J. Miller, L. Bryan Ray physics and chemistry only a few years ago and has captured the enthusiasm of experimen- Letters: Christine Gilbert, Editor; Steven S. Lapham Book Reviews: Katherine Livingston, Editor; Anne B. Isaacs talists and theoreticians. It has incredible symmetry for such a large molecule, in which 60 Contributing Editor: Lawrence 1. Grossman Chief Production Editor: Ellen E. Murphy carbon atoms are joined with a mixture of single and double bonds arranged in 20 hexagons Editing Department: Lois Schmitt, Head; Julie W. Albers, and 12 pentagons. Its chemical versatility is astonishing, reacting with alkali metals such as Denise Gipson, Steven Powell Copy Desk: Douglas B. Casey, Joi S. Granger, Beverly potassium and rubidium, halogens such as fluorine, free radicals, and Grignard reagents. Shields The molecule itself and many of its derivatives are readily soluble in organic solvents, but Production: James Landry, Director; Wendy K. Shank, Manager, Catherine S. Siskos, Assistant Manager; Scherraine recently amino adducts have been added which make it soluble in water. Mack, Associate; Linda C. Owens, Macintosh Operator In addition to opening up new fields of chemistry, C₆₀ also is showing interesting Art: Amy Decker Henry, Director, Julie Cherry, Assistant Director; Diana DeFrancesco, Associate; Holly Bishop, physical properties. It is so resistant to shock that it has been suggested as a lubricant, there Graphics Assistant Systems Analyst: William Carter is evidence of superconductivity, and it may provide the added ingredient that makes NEWS STAFF diamond films more practical. There is no short step to a practical application of its Managing News Editor: Colin Norman superconducting properties, but the surprising finding that C₆₀ does exhibit superconduc- Deputy News Editors: Tim Appenzeller, John M. Benditt, Jean Marx tivity opens up new theoretical avenues which may ultimately lead to a more profound News and Comment/Research News: Ivan Amato, Faye understanding of superconductivity in general. Flam, Troy Gately (copy), Ann Gibbons, David P. Hamilton, Constance Holden, Richard A. Kerr, Eliot Marshall, Joseph Science has always believed that structure throws light on function and vice versa, and Palca, Leslie Roberts, Richard Stone Bureaus: Marcia Barinaga (West Coast), Michelle Hoffman therefore the appearance of a new structure presages new ideas. As it is, in the short time (Northeast), Anne Simon Moffat (Midwest) since the discovery of C₆₀, the chemical and physical literature has been filled with novel Contributing Correspondents: Joseph Alper, Jeremy Cherfas, Barry A. Cipra, Robert Crease, Elizabeth Culotta, M. reactions and properties, and there is added excitement from the expectation that this is only Mitchell Waldrop, Karen Wright the beginning. In a recent issue of Science highlighting new approaches to curing and BUSINESS STAFF preventing cancer, it was impressive that so many contributions came from developing a Marketing Director: Beth Rosner Circulation Director: Michael Spinella general knowledge of biology, medicine, and chemistry. Understanding of growth factors, Fulfillment Manager: Marlene Zendell Financial: Deborah Rivera-Wienhold, Manager, Julie of viruses, of mutations of DNA, of membrane receptors, and of metabolism was the Eastland, Senior Analyst, Josephine Megbolugbe, Junior forerunner of therapy and prevention of cancer. The findings in this example support the Analyst belief of scientists that basic research is almost invariably correlated with practical applica- Reprints Manager: Corrine Harris Permissions Manager: Arlene Ennis tions. That correlation, which could be repeated in many other fields, is a particularly ADVERTISING important feature of the fullerene many-ring circus. The versatility of this molecule means Advertising Sales Manager: Susan A. Meredith Traffic Manager: Tina Turano not only that it is important in itself, but that the challenge to explain its unusual structure Traffic Manager (Display Recruitment): Daniel Moran Line Classified: Michele Pearl, Manager, Brian Wallace, and properties will clarify understanding of molecules that do not look at all like a geodesic Assistant dome. Advertising Assistant: Allison Pritchard Send materials to Science Advertising, 1333 H Street, NW, In the accompanying Molecule of the Year story, the properties of C₆₀ and the nine Washington, DC 20005, or FAX 202-682-0816. runners-up for Molecule of the Year are discussed, but at this moment, there seems little SALES:Northeast/E Canada: Fred Dieffenbach, Rt. 30, doubt that the new horizons opened by the fullerenes make them the best choice. Dorset, VT 05251; 802-867-5581, FAX 802-867-4464 Mid- Atlantic: Richard Teeling, 28 Kimberly Place, Wayne, NJ Part of the exhilaration of the fullerenes is the shock that an old reliable friend, the 07470; 201-904-9774, FAX 201-904-9701 Southeast: Mark carbon atom, has for all these years been hiding a secret life-style. We were all familiar with Anderson, 1915 Brickell Ave, Suite CC-1, Miami, FL 33129; 305-856-8567, FAX 305-856-1056 Midwest: Don Holbrook, the charming versatility of carbon, the backbone of organic chemistry, and its infinite 1110 North Harvey, Oak Park, IL 60302; 708-386-6921, 708- 386-6950 West Coast/W. Canada: Neil Boylan, 828 Cowper, variation in aromatic and aliphatic chemistry, but when you got it naked, we believed it Ste. A, Palo Alto, CA 94301; 415-323-3302, FAX 415-323- existed in two well-known forms, diamond and graphite. The finding that it could exist in 3312 Europe/Scandinavia: Nick Jones, UK; 44-647-52918, FAX 44-647-52053 a shockingly new structure unleashes tantalizing new experimental and theoretical ideas. Information for contributors appears on pages 35-37 of the Perhaps the least surprising might be that improving life through science is a path that 4 January 1991 issue. Editorial correspondence, including re- would see all the citizens of the world holding hands like carbon atoms in C₆₀ and like them, quests for permission to reprint and reprint orders, should be sent to 1333 H Street, NW, Washington, DC 20005. welcoming any newcomer, no matter how different his or her skills or challenges. Telephone: 202-326-6500. London office: 071-494-0062. -DANIEL E. KOSHLAND, JR. Subscription/Member Benefits Questions: 202-326-6417. Science: 202-326-6500. Other AAAS Programs: 202-326-6400. 20 DECEMBER 1991 EDITORIAL 1705 MOLECULE OF THE Buckyballs: Wide Open Playing Field for Chemists T he roundest, most symmetrical large molecule found so far, Playing ball in three dimensions. Just how do buckyballs buckminsterfullerenc, continues to astonish with one amaz- manage their chemical and physical feats? In C₆₀, hexagons and ing property after another. Named for American architect R. pentagons of carbon link together in a coordinated fashion to form Buckminster Fuller, who designed a geodesic dome with the same a hollow, geodesic dome with bonding strains equally distributed fundamental symmetry, C₆₀ is the third major form of pure carbon; among 60 carbon atoms. Some of the electrons are delocalized over graphite and diamond are the other two. the entire molecule, a feature even more pronounced in that Buckyballs were discovered in 1985-the by-product of an ex- workhorse of organic chemistry, benzene. But benzene is flat, and periment on carbon molecules in space-but it was in 1991 that many of its derivatives also tend to stack in flat sheets. Spherical buckyball science came into its own. This year scientists flocked to buckyballs literally add a new dimension to the chemistry of such the buckyball court, entranced by the molecule's unusual bonding aromatic compounds. behavior, its hollow symmetry, and its amazing electronic proper- The allure of C₆₀ goes beyond the beauty of its symmetrical ties. Rarely has one molecule so swiftly opened the door to a new shape. First considered a paragon of physical stability, it has turned field of science. out to be one of the most chemically versatile molecules known. Papers hit top journals every week or so; scientists scramble to This year, among other pioneering steps, chemists learned how to keep up by fax and E-mail, and month-old information is probably make fullerene derivatives, inflating the C₆₀ balloon by one or more out of date. carbons, in some cases still preserving its aromatic electron struc- In the past year, properly doped C₆₀ was found to be both ture. In the same week, it was reported that C₆₀ acts as a veritable superconducting and magnetic, and the fullerene family expanded sponge for free radicals, able to absorb dozens of these reactive to include asymmetrical forms as well as cylindrical fibers nicknamed chemical species. Free radicals with one unpaired electron are buckytubes. In a steady stream of firsts, fullerenes were found in crucial to the economical polymerization processes, and fullerene flames, decorated with free radicals, hung with fluorine atoms, compounds may one day be useful in such industrial processes. inflated by carbon rings, and stuffed with metals. With potential Superballs. A simple C₆₀ cage easily accepts electrons, so solid applications in such commercial basics as catalysis and polymeriza- fullerite doped with an alkali metal like potassium forms a stable tion as well as the more distant realms of superconductivity and compound of the family called fullerides with increasing amounts of ferromagnetism, buckyball may soon become one of industry's the alkali metal. Some fullerides become chameleons, changing favorite sports. from insulator to semiconductor to superconductor and back to All-star teams. From the beginning, buckyballs have been the insulator again. Pure C₆₀, for example, is an insulator. K₃C₆₀ is a 1 sport of physicists, materials scientists, and inorganic as well as superconductor; K₆C₆₀ is an insulator. The superconductive prop- P organic chemists. At first physicists led the way, pointing out the erties have unfolded at astonishing speed. In April, the critical exceptional electronic properties of the fullerenes, but this year, temperature was 18 K; by November, maybe 45 K, thanks to novel with grams of C₆₀ available, chemists also have taken to the field in dopings of C₆₀ and its rugby ball-shaped cousin, C₇₀, with metals P full force, and interdisciplinary teams of scientists are together and alloys of rubidium, cesium, and thallium. 1 exploring the round world of buckyballs. The fullerides can't yet run in the same league as the In the fall of 1990, scientists found that heating a traditionally hot candidates for high-temperature a rod of graphite in a helium atmosphere produced superconductivity, the metallic copper oxides, C₆₀. Labs around the country began cooking up which have set the superconductive record at bins of buckyballs, sparking an explosion of about 125 K. But because the fulleride mate- research. And in July, buckyball genesis was rials are a much simpler system, they may made potentially even easier by the discovery offer a window into the still mysterious burning benzene. Although C₆₀ is still rela- tively expensive-at least $2,000 per gram in purified form-many predict that fullerite (the ous electronic property of certain materials. pure, solid form of C₆₀) ultimately will be a bulk J. BERNHOLC ET AL., NCSU/T. PALMER NC SUPERCOMPUTING CENTER P: B that they are found in the sooting flames of mechanisms of superconductivity. Magnetic buckys. Ferromagnetism, like superconductivity, remains a mysteri- This year, buckyballs proved that they can commodity, sold in local chemistry supply stores play magnetic games too. Add an organic reduc- for dollars per pound. ing agent to fullerides and the totally unexpected Marriage of the molecules. Last year, the bril- result is a "soft" organic ferromagnet at temperatures c liance of synthetic diamonds as superhard materials beat out up to 16 degrees K. The new material won't stay magnetic buckyballs for Molecule of the Year. But one shadow dimmed in the absence of an outside field, and so in itself may not have a diamond's luster: A polish of diamond itself was often required to practical applications. But the ongoing quest for an organic ferro- S grow synthetic diamond film-an expensive and often impractical magnet, which would be prized for its light weight and ability to be o beginning. This year, buckyballs came to the rescue. Researchers polymerized, suddenly broadened its scope to include the fullerenes. a coated silicon with C₇₀, then grew diamond on top. Voilà! The Cagey chemistry. For years chemists have been painstakingly t rugby ball-shaped fullerenes increased diamond formation by 10 building molecules with cavities, and fine-tuning the properties of t orders of magnitude over the untreated silicon. those cavities in order to hold and transfer different atoms and e 1706 SCIENCE, VOL. 254 2 ions. Now, with a naturally hollow molecule dropped into their unexpected is expected. Eventually, the action will focus on a few laps, chemists are eagerly discovering the rules for how buckyballs promising research veins, and then practical applications will bloom. can be filled. Eventually, by combining approaches, chemists may For now, chemists, physicists, and materials scientists are simply tailor-make stuffed buckyballs to serve as molecular containers, having a ball. shields for radioactive compounds, or drug-delivery agents. This year, lanthanum atoms were stuffed inside buckyballs using the And the Runners-Up Are... ship-in-a-bottle trick: form the cage around the stuffing. The next goal is to open a door into the fullerene cage, while still preserving S cientists hit homeruns in many fields this year, as they that fragile electron structure, to allow direct movement of atoms explored new territories ranging from planets to atoms. or ions inside. Science's nine runners-up for Molecule of the Year-exciting dis- Twist and shout. Not all the fullerenes have the perfect symme- coveries need only be "honorary" molecules-are described below. try of C₆₀—but even a lopsided structure can be promising. C₇₆ and C₈₄ have been found to have a helical form. C₇₈ also has a chiral Microscopic manipulations. Extending human perceptions form, explored on page 1768 of this issue. Starting with planar into the atomic realm has been a scientists' dream for decades, but graphite and ending with chiral carbon is surprising enough, but the in 1991, that dream became a useful part of reality, thanks to the asymmetrical forms may have fancy applications too, such as the scanning tunneling microscope (STM). An STM initially offered creation of nonlinear optical materials. When exposed to light of the perception aspects at the atomic level, but recently the micro- one frequency, such a material would emit light of another, acting as an optical switch. The first Buckytubes. One of the year's most exciting developments hand-built turned up in the dirt piles of old fullerenes. In the soot on a atomic carbon electrode used to make fullerenes were found needles of structure. Seven Xe carbon, composed of very thin nested tubes. Within each atoms banded individual rolled-up sheet, the carbon molecules were appar- together to ently arranged in a helical structure. Fullerene tubes may possess form a linear an amazing mix of properties-including great strength, since chain on the fibers of conventional forms of carbon are already the strongest Ni (110) known. Evidence is mounting that the higher fullerenes-such surface. The giant molecules as C₂₄₀—may not be symmetrical like the image is prototypes, C₆₀ and C₇₀. Rather, the larger molecules may be 50Å x 50Å. asymmetrical and incorporate buckytubes in their structures. Starting reactions. Carbon cages are likely to make good scope has been shown to be able to pick up atoms and move them catalysts, thanks to their bonding behavior and geometrical fea- about. The scope works by inducing a tunneling current of elec- tures, so industrial chemists are watching the buckyball play closely. trons between its tungsten tip and the sample. If the current is kept This year, the outside of carbon cages was decorated with com- constant, the probe rises and falls, creating a map of the sample's plexes of nickel, palladium, and platinum complexes, a feat that may topography. Sharply increasing the current allows the tip to pick up eventually offer more than just a pretty molecule. atoms delicately and transport them. As an imaging tool, the STM Injuries on the field? Many potentially useful organic com- is available from about 20 commercial sources and is already a pounds have a crippling fault: They tend to be intercalated into workhorse of materials science. As an atomic forceps, STM applica- DNA and thus promote cancer. But buckyballs suffer no such flaw. tions are just beginning. For their first attempts at moving atoms, They appear to be too big and round to be incorporated into DNA scientists pulled stunts like writing "I love STM" in xenon atoms. as are some of their planar cousins. But in the past year, they systematically explored the tricks of atomic Buckyballs face a potential red flag of their own, however. In the manipulation. Atoms were dragged along a surface, picked up and presence of light and oxygen, the C₆₀ molecule can pass its super- set down somewhere else. A single atom can be induced to diffuse fluous excitation energy onto nearby oxygen molecules, creating a by applying a voltage between the surface and the STM tip. Practical long-lived but very reactive form of oxygen called singlet oxygen. applications are still years away, but the possibilities for atomic Bucky boosters point out that even such a threat may hold promise. assembly are endless, including creating new molecules or building When not in an excited state, C₆₀ quenches the reactivity of other synthetic versions of precious natural ones. Atomic switches, which singlet oxygen species. Unmodified fullerenes are insoluble in flip a current on and off by moving a single atom and which were water, suggesting that they may react very little with biological demonstrated for the first time this year, could theoretically shrink tissue. Carcinogenicity tests are ongoing, but thus far buckyball computers by several orders of magnitude-and allow readers to looks like one of the safer games in town. store a year's worth of Science on a disc the size of a penny. As fullerene science takes off in all directions, speculations as to Venusian visions. Planetary scientists have always had a basic its uses abound. Will it be superconductivity that makes fullerenes problem: Studies of active geologic and atmospheric processes on commercially important? Super-strong fibers? Catalysts? Too soon Earth-like planets were chiefly based on one planet-Earth. In to say, but buckyball players aren't exactly worried about a lack of 1991, detailed information was obtained for another planet, thanks applications. At this point, the heady atmosphere of discovery is too to an interplanetary voyager called Magellan, which began to orbit strong. After all, so far fullerene science exhibits the classic profile Venus in August 1990. Despite some early problems, Magellan's of a major scientific breakthrough. Buckyballs were found by big radar antennae sent back eerily beautiful radar photos of the accident by researchers asking a completely different question. Then surface of Venus. The new photos (which Magellan gathered by they were steadily explored-until they became widely available and beaming microwaves to the surface through the clouds that shroud the field exploded. Now, buckyball scientists are enjoying the the planet, picking up the echoes and sending records back to Earth exponential phase, in which almost everything is new and the for processing) are a technological triumph, 10 times as sharp as any 20 DECEMBER 1991 MOLECULE OF THE YEAR 1707 MOLECULE OF THE YEAR previous Venusian views. They show huge impact craters flooded with radar-dark material, giant volcanic calderas, dramatic moun- tain ranges, and evidence of Silica-rich volcanism, such as thick lava puddles 25 km in diameter. Already it's clear that Venus is no twin to Earth, bearing little evidence of Earth-like plate tectonics. One other 1991 Venusian news flash: more proof that the planet's heavy sulfuric clouds are sometimes pierced by lightning. The lightning's telltale radio signals were picked up by a plasma wave instrument SIMON FRASER/PHOTO RESEARCHERS, INC. aboard the Galileo spacecraft, which enjoyed a brief rendezvous with Venus in 1990. Meanwhile, Magellan's work was so successful that its mission has been extended; a third mapping rotation begins in January. For those who have seen Venus with new eyes, the twinkling star of evening and morning will never look quite the same. That sinking feeling. Stratospheric ozone, or rather the lack of it, has been a scientific concern for several years, but in 1991 public awareness reached a new high, as the ozone hole over Antarctica expanded. This year, ozone losses hit home for denizens of the Pediatric nurse adjusting an intravenous line being used to deliver Northern Hemisphere too. The protective layer has thinned by chemotherapy drugs to a young boy with leukemia. about 3% over northern latitudes in the past decade. Even during northern summers-typically a seasonal high for ozone as well as Diederichs et al. on page 1779 of this issue. Theoretically, anyone prime time for sunbathing-ozone has declined. As a consequence, who suffers from impaired immunity may profit from CSFs; trials human exposure to ultraviolet light is expected to increase. If ozone with AIDS patients are under way. Trials are also under way on drops by an average of 10%, the United Nations Environmental people who have normal immune cell counts but are fighting Program predicts that there will be 1.6 million new cataracts and serious infections, like pneumonia, and could use an immune cell 300,000 skin cancers worldwide annually. On the positive side, the boost. The CSFs are also pretty good at stimulating stock portfolios. Montreal Protocol, which calls for phase-out of ozone-eating halons Amgen stock rose by 180% this year. The two approved CSFs are and chlorofluorocarbons by 2000, was implemented this year. expected to garner $450 million in sales in 1992, and that's only the Environmentalists say faster phase-out is needed, but even critics tip of the iceberg, with more than a dozen CSFs and their cousins, agree the protocol deserves the interleukins, waiting in the wings. respect as the first interna- Cycling into cancer research. Like miners following their tional treaty to tackle a glo- separate veins of gold, basic scientists for years have explored the bal environmental problem. subtleties of the cell cycle while cancer researchers explored the Meanwhile, using satellites genetics and pathology of the disease. This year, both groups have and aircraft, scientists con- found themselves digging away at one promising vein, which could tinue to explore the dynam- lead to the motherlode: proteins called cyclins and their working ics of ozone destruction. But partners, the cdc kinases. Originally, researchers thought that one even if ozone loss can be or two cyclins paired up with a kinase (enzymes that modify proteins slowed, how can the exist- by phosphorylation) to trigger cell division. This year the cyclins ing hole be filled? Some at- and kinases have multiplied into a complex cast of characters, mospheric scientists sug- The volcano Sapas Mores on Venus including five distinct families of cyclins and perhaps 10 cdc kinases. erupts with molten lava 250 miles gested one possibility this Together, these proteins may regulate the cell cycle at a series of across with some similarity to year: break the ozone-de- key points. For example, this year researchers looking for a gene eruptions in Hawaii. stroying chain reaction by involved in a benign parathyroid tumor stumbled into cyclin re- dumping 50,000 tons of search, finding that the protein encoded by their tumor gene is a ethane or propane into the Antarctic stratosphere to scavenge reactive cyclin. Other groups (who were actually looking for cyclins) found chlorine free radicals. the same cyclin, now called cyclin D. Meanwhile, cyclins are Growth factor. True to their name, colony stimulating factors suspected of binding with the (CSFs) spur colonies of immune cells to grow in Petri dishes. But in 1991, CSFs swept into clinical medicine, with two factors D. DEFRANCESCO protein encoded by a well- known tumor suppressor gene, approved by the Food and Drug Administration. Naturally pro- the retinoblastoma gene. There duced in the human body, recombinant CSFs can be used to cyclin 8 M are even tantalizing hints that stimulate production of key white blood cells, which destroy bacte- Gf cyclins are involved with the pro- Start cyclin ria and viruses. Chemotherapy kills such cells, leaving patients G2 destroyed tein product of the p53 gene, a vulnerable to infection and dependent upon antibiotics. To regain S tumor suppressor that is the most their health, tens of thousands of patients getting chemotherapy destroyed frequently mutated gene in some also receive granulocyte colony stimulating factor, (GCSF), which kinese human cancers. This year, the allows more intense and frequent doses of chemotherapy. Patients cell cycle picture became much who receive GCSF need fewer antibiotics, recover earlier, and go Cyclins and the kinases related more complex and a little less home sooner, making the medicine a cost-effective strategy. It's not to them have key roles in only cancer patients who benefit. GMCSF (for granulocyte-mac- controlling the cell cycle. mysterious. Eventually, resetting the cellular clock could stop the rophage colony stimulating factor) was approved for bone marrow wild reproduction of cancer cells or nurture the regrowth of cells in transplantation this year. Meanwhile, basic research on the factors damaged organs. continues; the molecular structure of GMCSF is presented by Immunologists look inward. In the past few months, a series 1708 SCIENCE, VOL. 254 of fast-paced developments in immunology has begun to unravel gists are working on creating mice to provide models for common the story of the way antigens are processed into strips of peptide and human diseases, such as cystic fibrosis and many types of cancer. displayed for recognition by lymphocytes. For this internal process- Before homologous recombination, geneticists working with ing duty, the immune system has coopted existing cellular machin- transgenic mammals could introduce a mutated gene into cells but ery. In one antigen-processing pathway (class I) there are two could not control where the gene went on a chromosome or how steps-first, digesting the proteins and second, transporting the many copies were inserted. Only in yeast could altered genes be peptides to the binding site. The new genes were found in a small inserted on target. But now mammalian geneticists can study living area of the genome that contains other genes of the major histo- mice with carefully targeted mutations, thanks to homologous compatibility complex (MHC). Also in late 1990 and in 1991, recombination and another relatively new technique, that of cultur- several of the peptides bound to the MHC molecules (both class I ing embryonic stem cells and reinserting them into the developing and class II) were sequenced for the first time. Since vaccines mimic mouse. The scientific rewards are rolling in. For example, in 1991 these peptides in order to arouse an immune response, knowing the Yellow obese detailed sequence is likely to lead to more potent vaccines. For mouse. The mouse example, MHC class I molecules incorporate surprisingly short cines are generated by a much longer and therefore less effective STANTON SHORT/JACKSON LABS is heterozygous for peptides, typically only nine amino acids long. Most current vac- a gene that alters coat color and chain. Since the immune system sometimes attacks its own proteins tumor suscep- (the autoimmune diseases), knowledge of these peptides may also tibility. be the first step to creating drugs to block the unwanted response. Market rules. For more than 70 years, the Soviet Union ran a sweeping economic experiment on a scale so grand no social several of the homeobox genes-key genes that regulate develop- scientist would ever dare propose it. Spurning free markets, the ment and have been conserved throughout evolution-were dis- Soviets did their best to craft a planned economy, setting prices and rupted by targeted mutagenesis and put back into mice. Most times directing factory output for the entire nation. Meanwhile, from the homologous genes have homologous effects in different species but 1930s to the '50s, Western economic journals hosted a fierce sometimes the results are surprising. For example, mutated Dros- debate. Could a centrally controlled economy run smoothly by ophila show drastic effects if missing a homeobox gene called mimicking a free market? Socialists argued that inventories could engrailed, but knocking out the homologous gene in mice pro- signal supply and demand just as well or better than prices. But duced normal mice with only slight changes in brain tissue, suggest- other economists insisted that nothing could match the wealth of ing that there is more redundancy than expected in the mammalian information about tastes and technologies that is contained in a genetic plan. Meanwhile, the homologous recombination tech- free market price. Those theoretical debates ended inconclusively, nique continues to be refined, so that as of this year, the technique and the journals turned to other issues. But in 1991 the Soviet can be used extensively. Union crumbled from within, offering strong support for the Rousing receptors. As the most widespread neurotransmitter Lenin's statue in the brain, the simple amino acid L-glutamate has powerful and comes falling removes Lenin from a pedestal AP/WIDE WORLD PHOTOS diverse effects, with roles in development, learning and memory, down. A rope and neurological diseases and stroke. This single molecule triggers a variety of events because different receptors respond to glutamate in very different ways. This year, the genes that code for several in Lithuania as receptor types were found, which marks a giant step toward under- symbol of the standing their detailed functions and providing therapy for mal- collapse of his functioning cells without interfering with normal brain processes. economic The elusive metabotropic receptor was cloned this year, as was the system. long-sought NMDA receptor (for N-methyl-D-aspartate, a syn- thetic compound that activates this receptor). Finding the NMDA receptor was a prize discovery, in part because this receptor, which market econo- allows calcium ions into the cell, is involved in the brain damage mists. Econo- left by a stroke. The damage is done when cells become mists around the overstimulated and calcium floods the cell, in a process called world are now excitotoxicity. Conventional wisdom held that only NMDA re- concluding that ceptors were permeable to calcium, but this year scientists revised central planning does not motivate citizens and cannot transmit their views: certain subunits of another class of receptor, the non- information as efficiently as a free market. The demise of the USSR NMDA Slutamate receptors called kainate-AMPA receptors, also does not prove, of course, that every aspect of an economy should can trigger the flow of calcium. And this summer two groups be left to Adam Smith's famed invisible hand. But in the wake of the independently found that the genes that code for these receptor Soviet experience, the question is no longer market economy vs. subunits differ by only one amino acid, which means calcium central planning. Rather, it is how best to create a market economy permeability is genetically controlled by one amino acid in these while minimizing hardships. receptors. These developments suggest that the non-NMDA re- Genes on target. Homologous recombination, the act of slip- ceptors also may have a role in calcium-dependent processes, ping a mutated gene into the correct place on a chromosome, was which are believed to include learning and memory. And they raise first accomplished about 4 years ago. But in 1991 the technique's the possibility that some day very specific drugs could turn off chimeric offspring began to appear in large numbers. A zooful of calcium permeability in a small subset of brain cells-without altered mouse lines has now emerged, setting the stage for a new set turning off the rest of the brain in the process. of powerful mammalian model systems for human diseases. Biolo- -ELIZABETH CULOTTA AND DANIEL E. KOSHLAND, JR. 20 DECEMBER 1991 MOLECULE OF THE YEAR 1709 2I DECEMBER 1990 SCIENCE VOLUME 250 NUMBER 4988 American Association for the Advancement of Science The Molecule of the Year Science serves its readers as a forum for the presentation and discussion of important issues related to the advance- ment of science, including the presentation of minority or con- D iamonds may soon be everyone's best friend. According to enthusiasts, synthetic flicting points of view, rather than by publishing only material on which a consensus has been reached. Accordingly, all ar- diamonds have already or will soon appear on watch crystals, eyeglasses, optical ticles published in Science-including editorials, news and instruments, audio speakers, fuel injection nozzles, turbine blades, scalpels, and comment, and book reviews-are signed and reflect the indi- vidual views of the authors and not official points of view semiconductor wafers, to name only a few applications. adopted by the AAAS or the institutions with which the au- thors are affiliated. The remarkable properties of diamond were recognized long ago. The name originates from the Greek adamas, which means invincible. Diamonds, particularly large ones, are Publisher: Richard S. Nicholson among the most desirable gemstones, but the scientific and industrial value of diamond films Editor: Daniel E. Koshland, Jr. and small diamonds is perhaps even more striking. For hardness, for electrical resistance, for Deputy Editor: Ellis Rubinstein corrosion resistance, and for thermal conductivity, diamonds are at the extreme. Diamond Managing Editor: Monica M. Bradford also absorbs less light at most wavelengths, and also exhibits ten times greater thresholds to Deputy Editors: Philip H. Abelson (Engineering and Applied Sciences); John I. Brauman (Physical Sciences); Thomas R. laser damage. Its thermal properties can be improved even further by making pure Cech (Biological Sciences) carbon-12 isotopic diamonds. Diamond circuits could be more stable and would remove EDITORIAL STAFF accumulated heat more rapidly than the silicon wafers that are the current core of the Senior Editors: Eleanore Butz, Martha Coleman, Barbara semiconductor industry. Jasny, Katrina L. Kelner, Phillip D. Szuromi, David F. Voss Associate Editors: R. Brooks Hanson, Pamela J. Hines, Kelly Last year a new feature, the Molecule of the Year, was initiated by Science with the idea LaMarco, Linda J. Miller, L. Bryan Ray of honoring the scientific development of the year most likely to have a major impact on Letters: Christine Gilbert, editor, Steven S. Lapham Book Reviews: Katherine Livingston, editor, Teresa scientific advances and societal benefits [Science 246, 1541 (1989)]. The condition for Fryberger Contributing Editor: Lawrence I. Grossman selection was not that the development had to be discovered in the year of the choice, but Chief Production Editor: Ellen E. Murphy rather that in that year the accumulation of experience and expertise indicated that the Editing Department: Lois Schmitt, head; Julianne Hunt, Patricia L. Moe, Barbara P. Ordway discovery was on a pathway of major importance: The polymerase chain reaction was picked Copy Desk: Joi S. Granger, Margaret E. Gray, MaryBeth as the Molecule of the Year for 1989, and the exponential increase in 1990 in its use in the Shartle, Beverly Shields Production Director: James Landry laboratory, in industry, and in the courtroom supports that selection. Diamonds in 1990 Production Manager: Kathleen C. Fishback Art Director: Yolanda M. Rook seem to be at the equivalent stage. There are cost factors and theoretical problems to Assistant Art Director: Julie Cherry overcome, but the mounting excitement in conferences, journals, and industrial laboratories Graphics and Production: Holly Bishop, Catherine S. Siskos Systems Analyst: William Carter indicates that the threshold in the development of a new technology has been passed. A more detailed account of the diamond development, and of the runner-up candidates for NEWS STAFF Molecule of the Year, is given on page 1640 of this issue. Managing News Editor: Colin Norman Correspondent-at-Large: Barbara J. Culliton One of the intriguing aspects of the synthetic diamond technology is its relation to the Deputy News Editors: John M. Benditt, Jean Marx News and Comment/Research News: Ann Gibbons, David discipline of materials science. That area of modern science, a child of physics, engineering, P. Hamilton, Constance Holden, Richard A. Kerr, Eliot and chemistry, has flourished enormously in recent years, producing such practical Marshall, Joseph Palca, Robert Pool, Leslie Roberts, M. Mitchell Waldrop applications as transistors, superconductors, and designer catalysts. Materials science has a European Correspondent: Jeremy Cherfas history of symbiosis between academe and industry and is driven by the interplay between West Coast Correspondent: Marcia Barinaga Contributing Correspondents: Barry A. Cipra, Robert fundamental research and practical applications. Materials scientists constantly search for Crease, Karen Wright new phenomena and new combinations of existing properties. These discoveries can lead to BUSINESS STAFF previously unimaginable technologies or can decrease the cost of existing applications so Marketing Director: Beth Rosner that they become accessible to a wider range of problems. This is one of the reasons materials Circulation Director: Michael Spinella Fulfillment Manager: Marlene Zendell scientists are so excited about thin diamond films. They will now be able to exploit the Business Staff Manager: Deborah Rivera-Wienhold incredible properties of diamond in situations that were discarded as impractical in the past. Classified Advertising Supervisor: Amie Charlene King For example, electronic devices in which diamond forms the substrate, or backbone, for the ADVERTISING REPRESENTATIVES device would be inconceivable without the ability to grow diamond as a film. Moreover, Director: Earl J. Scherago Traffic Manager: Donna Rivera materials scientists are aware that knowledge diffuses like ions hopping in a lattice, so that Traffic Manager (Recruitment): Gwen Canter other promising materials, such as boron nitrides, will benefit from the new science revealed Advertising Sales Manager: Richard L. Charles Marketing Manager: Herbert L. Burklund by diamond studies. Employment Sales Manager: Edward C. Keller Sales: New York, NY 10036: J. Kevin Henebry, 1515 Broad- As we watch the sudden rise in expectations and knowledge of diamonds, do we need way (212-730-1050); Scotch Plains, NJ 07076: C. Richard to fear side effects of unknown consequence? No obvious difficulties are apparent, other than Callis, 12 Unami Lane (201-889-4873); Hoffman Estates, IL 60195: Jack Ryan, 525 W. Higgins Rd. (708-885-8675); San the economic readjustments usually accompanying any new technology. Electromagnetic Jose, CA 95112: Bob Brindley, 310 S. 16th St. (408-998- radiation, antibiotics, and transistors are only a few of the scientific discoveries that have 4690); Dorset, VT 05251: Fred W. Dieffenbach, Kent Hill Rd. (802-867-5581); Damascus, MD 20872: Rick Sommer, 11318 spawned new industries and enriched all our lives. That they have in turn created new Kings Valley Dr. (301-972-9270); U.K., Europe: Nick Jones, +44(0647)52918; Telex 42513; FAX (0647) 52053. societal problems should lead neither to cries of dismay nor shouts of alarm. Who really wants to get rid of television sets, life-saving drugs, or computers? Synthetic diamonds may Information for contributors appears on page XI of the well create new problems requiring new science and new ingenuity, but the potentialities for 21 December 1990 issue. Editorial correspondence, including requests for permission to reprint and reprint orders, should new frontiers more than outweigh the possible adversities. be sent to 1333 H Street, NW, Washington, DC 20005. Tele- phone: 202-326-6500. Advertising correspondence should Scientists who say, "The solution to problems created by science is more science," must be sent to Tenth Floor, 1515 Broadway, New York, NY 10036. expect to be viewed with a certain amount of skepticism by the general public. Scientists Telephone 212-730-1050 or WU Telex 968082 SCHERAGO, or FAX 212-382-3725. Subscription/Member Benefits must therefore do their best to predict in advance that the mainline benefits are likely to Questions: 202-326-6417. Science: 202-326-6500. outweigh the sideline problems, in which case the public will find that science, like Other AAAS Programs: 202-326-6400. diamonds, can be everybody's best friend.-DANIEL E. KOSHLAND, JR. 21 DECEMBER 1990 EDITORIAL 1637 Molecule of the Year Bell Laboratories Diamond: Glittering Prize for Materials Science I ts combination of hard-to-reach environments where high pressures and tempera- properties, like its tures, intense radiation, high salt content, and other adverse con- appearance, is abso- ditions can destroy materials (places like the ocean, space, engines, lutely dazzling. Dia- and nuclear reactors), fabrication of diamond materials and devices mond is the hardest may be justified already, even at the currently high costs of pro- substance known. It duction. is inert to chemical In both adverse and more standard settings, diamond substrates corrosion and can for semiconductors will be able to efficiently transport heat from withstand compressive forces and radiation. It conducts heat better electronic circuitry, obviating the need for cumbersome cooling than any other material, has extremely high electrical resistance, and systems. Because CVD diamond films have both high thermal is transparent to visible light, x-rays, ultraviolet radiation, and much conductivity and high electrical resistivity, the jewel in the crown of of the infrared spectrum. And, with respect to most of these diamond film technology may well be superfast integrated diamond features, diamond is superior to all other known materials. circuits. Diamond diodes (the building blocks of transistors, which, Because of these outstanding properties, synthetic diamond in turn, are the building blocks of integrated circuits) have recently materials-both crystals and thin films-that could be made cheaply been made. If successful doping of diamond can be accomplished would have great potential in research and commercial applications. routinely, diamond devices could someday replace silicon semi- Can they be produced? 1990 saw the start of the era in which this conductors. Whereas silicon chips can withstand temperatures up to possibility could become a reality. 300°C, one estimate is that diamond chips might be able to Diamonds in the rough. Before it was feasible to make syn- withstand temperatures as high as 5000°C. thetic diamonds, diamonds could only be obtained through min- Doped single-crystal diamond films are needed for diamond ing, and never has there been what could be called a ready supply. semiconductors; for other applications polycrystalline diamond Today, less than 20 tons of natural diamonds are mined each year films are adequate. For example, abrasion-resistant tools are coated throughout the world. Brazil, India, and South Africa have been, at with this type of film. Industry faces a different sort of challenge different times, the world's major diamond-mining nations, though with regard to these tools, namely determining what would be an diamonds are also found in many other countries; today the equitable price to charge for saws and knives that never need Kaapvaal craton of southern Africa is one of the world's most sharpening or replacement. productive diamond-mining centers. Diamond thin films can be put on windows and lenses to make Natural diamonds form in the earth's mantle in regions of high them scratch-proof, nonreflecting, and permeable to light. Because temperature and high pressure. Volcanic eruptions that originate diamond films are wear-resistant, they might be fashioned into from such regions bring diamonds to upper portions of the earth's efficient, low-friction, unlubricated bearings for machinery and crust in rocks known as kimberlites. Diamonds are mined from the prosthetic devices. A megaproject that may be in the offing is the conduits of the volcanos and from nearby placer deposits in stream production of diamond films for use as high-speed detectors for the beds and beaches. superconducting supercollider; it is predicted to involve more than The switch to synthetic. As new technologies have been de- a million carats of diamond film. veloped for the production of artificial diamonds, the quest for In addition to the production of diamond films and coatings, diamonds has shifted more and more from the mine to the labora- free-standing diamond materials are being fabricated. Diamond tory. The number of potential uses for diamond-based materials nozzles have been cast for use in diesel engines, and diamond and the enormous profits anticipated have engendered an interna- sheets, domes, and tubes have been prepared on metal preforms. tional race for high-quality artificial diamond production. Techno- Because the template is logic breakthroughs for growing diamond materials and diamond etched away, full advan- films have come fast and furious in 1990. In addition, use of purer tage can be taken of starting materials made possible the production of isotopically pure diamond's extreme diamond films that have properties superior even to those of natural properties in the free- diamonds: the most exceptional of these is the extraordinary ability standing constructs. of the pure films to conduct heat. Although the cost of making The technological synthetic diamond films with state-of-the-art chemical vapor depo- spadework. Interest in sition (CVD) methods is still high-estimated at around $100 per the production of artifi- carat-the price could drop significantly with the optimization of cial diamonds was ex- Supplied by Don Kania, Lawrence Livermore Labs CVD technology. pressed at the turn of the Applications. A few diamond-based and diamond-coated prod- century, but it was not ucts are already in use commercially--x-ray windows in electron until 1958 that a method microscopes, strong abrasion-resistant industrial tools, and dia- was patented in the United States for preparing diamond materials phragms for tweeters in stereo speakers-but these represent only from methane at high pressures and high temperatures (1600 K and a tiny fraction of the anticipated applications. For hard-to-service, about 55 kilobars). However, as the methane burned, graphite was 1640 SCIENCE, VOL. 250 also deposited, severely limiting the speed of diamond deposition means by which specific properties of films enhance their usefulness and therefore the success of the process. (Both diamond and for various applications. Most materials-metals, ceramics, plastics, graphite are pure carbon materials, but the way that carbon atoms polymers, and paper-are considered desirable substrates for some are organized in them differs: diamond is a rigid, dense, and application of diamond films, and so an understanding of what essentially incompressible crystal in which tetrahedrally coordinated promotes. bonding is critical. For some applications, epitaxial growth carbon atoms are linked in a cubic crystal lattice by covalent bonds; is required, whereas in other cases the substrate serves only as a form graphite is a soft material in which two types of bonds form to create on which a film is fabricated. a macrostructure of parallel sheets with hexagonal symmetry.) It has taken a quarter of a century for artificial diamond film In 1977, researchers in the Soviet Union found that deposition production to get under way, but, now that it has, the future for of the troublesome graphite could be prevented if excess atomic diamond-based materials is likely to be a gem. hydrogen were added to the reaction chamber. Hydrogen may both suppress formation of graphite nuclei and contribute to the creation The Runners-up of free radical sites. By 1981 the Russian scientists reported that There were many scientific and technological developments in 1990 they were able to form both single-crystal diamond films on that had their own exceptional sparkle. Science's top ten among diamond substrates and multiple diamond crystals on metal sub- these are described here. strates. Terrific tesselations. Distant cousins of diamonds, the 60- The film industry runs fast-forward. With a solution to the carbon buckminsterfullerenes or buckyballs, can now be synthe- graphite problem at hand, Japanese and other researchers began in sized in bulk. The availability of gram-per- the early 1980s to develop low-pressure CVD methods; these day quantities of these soccer ball- methods yielded high-quality single-crystal and polycrystalline films. shaped all-carbon molecules is a real With CVD, hydrogen gas is heated with a simple hydrocarbon kick for chemists: it has already compound such as methane (referred to in some of the popular made possible many analyses of accounts of the achievement as swamp gas, vodka, and sake) to the structure, spectral signature, temperatures of 2200°C. The carbon atoms are atomized and and properties of C₆₀ that had ionized and then rearrange and condense out onto the substrate. not been possible before. This Diamond films made with CVD methods have proven to be both handle on buckminsterfullerenes smoother and larger than those that could be made under high- should also facilitate measure- pressure and high-temperature conditions. ments of the abundance of C₆₀ in In July of this year, scientists in the United States reported that the cosmos. Such clusters are in- isotopically pure diamond films (containing 99.9% carbon-12 and credibly stable and, because candle not the 1% carbon-13 that is present in natural diamonds) had been burning, wood burning, and star burning grown. The pure films not only conducted heat 50% better than the all create the conditions that favor formation of C₆₀, the best natural diamonds but also withstood damage by laser radiation buckminsterfullerenes may turn out to be among the most abun- ten times more effectively than natural diamond. dant molecules in the universe. Buckminsterfullerenes have been Vapor deposition methodology now appears to be in an exponen- attracting attention for about 5 years, ever since they proved to be tial phase of growth. Diamond films can be grown at pressures surprisingly abundant vaporization products in experiments di- ranging from tens of torrs to 1 atmosphere. Film growth rates of 1 rected at the production of long-chain carbon molecules. Why are millimeter per hour are possible. Diverse volatilization methods the buckyballs so much more stable than other poly-carbon mol- have become available, including microwave discharges, hot fila- ecules? All members of the fullerene family are stable because they ments, plasma torches, and ion beams. The deposition of films at have no dangling bonds; C₆₀ is the most stable of these complete lower-than-normal temperatures (around 300°C instead of the hollow shells, perhaps because the way it curves minimizes stress on standard 700 to 1100°C) has been accomplished through the carbon-carbon bonds. The shape of the C₆₀ molecule immediately addition of halogens to reaction mixtures; this is an important step brings to mind several possible applications-as catalytic surfaces if diamond is to be deposited on temperature-sensitive substrates. and as capsules for transporting small molecules through the body, All of these variations on the basic CVD theme are making possible as do vesicles and viruses which have similar shapes. Unmodified faster production of better materials with diverse morphologies. buckyballs react poorly with other substances and may, like their For some purposes, diamond-like carbon films (which contain precursor graphite, be effective lubricants; if their surfaces can be less than 1% hydrogen) or diamond-like hydrocarbon films (those modified (for example, with hydrocarbon chains), new forms of with 20 to 60% hydrogen) may be as good or better than diamond organic molecules could be created on buckyball frameworks. films. In general, these films can be deposited at lower temperatures Juggled genes. Gene therapy is in theory the way to attack than can pure diamond films. The development of similar materials, inherited defects head on: substitute a normal gene for one that is such as the boron nitrides, may also benefit from the diamond malfunctioning or missing. The first human gene therapy experi- technology boom. ments have now surmounted all political hurdles and are under way The many facets of diamond film technology. Much has been at the National Institutes of Health; how quickly enough of the accomplished with CVD technology even in the absence of a clear technologic challenges can be met to make this therapy effective understanding of how and why this process transmutes hydrocar- remains to be seen. Can the good gene be targeted to the right place bon into diamond. Experimental and theoretical approaches are and, in some cases, can the defective gene be removed at the same now coming together to provide an understanding of the kinds of time? Can the genetically engineered cells be kept alive and func- intermediates that form during the deposition process, the specific tioning, and can they be made to reproduce? Will enough of the molecular species that promote the growth of the crystal lattice, the needed gene product be produced? Can all this be done without types of atoms that bind to the crystal's edges, the impurities activation of "innocent bystander" oncogenes inside the therapeu- (nitrogen, boron, and others) that disrupt the formation of dia- tic cell? The genetic disease that was chosen for the prototype gene mond crystals, the ways in which reaction conditions affect the therapy triáls is the immunodeficiency caused by an adenosine speed of film deposition and film thickness and shape, and the deaminase (ADA) deficiency. The disease would appear to be a 21 DECEMBER 1990 MOLECULE OF THE YEAR 1641 perfect choice in which to evaluate and improve gene therapy detect lower energy neutrinos and thus should be able to monitor technology. It is caused by a simple genetic deficiency-one enzyme the vast majority of neutrinos coming from the sun, those produced is missing-and therefore might also be "simply" corrected. Al- by proton-proton fusions. Measures of the sun's brightness and of the though the disease affects perhaps no more than 50 people around neutrino flux should jibe; if they do not, and so far they have not, new the world, it is nonetheless widely known because of the poignant neutrino physics will be in order. The new physics could include a image projected by the "Boy in the Bubble." People born with an mass for neutrinos and oscillations and transmutations between the ADA deficiency cannot fight infectious diseases; they either live in three different types of neutrinos-electron, muon, and tau-while a sterile (bubble) environment or are continually sick, and they die they are still inside the sun. young from overwhelming infections. Cells carrying a functional Alluring aerogels. Aerogels are strong, light, airy materials. The gene for ADA have been given to the first few pioneer patients, but most airy aerogel prepared to date consists of 99.8% air; the rest is it is still too soon to evaluate the efficacy of these trials. Cystic silicon dioxide. So fibrosis is also high on the gene therapy list; it is the most common far aerogels have fatal genetic disease in Caucasians in North America. Last year the been used only in gene that is responsible for cystic fibrosis was identified. This year, high energy phys- the faulty cystic fibrosis genes in two types of cells in culture were ics particle detec- replaced with their normal counterparts; the substitution repaired tors. However, defects in the cells' membrane ion channels, preventing the cells their properties- from swelling. It remains to be seen whether cells repaired in this they do not con- fashion can reverse symptoms brought on by the build-up of dry duct heat or sound Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory mucus in the lungs of cystic fibrosis patients. well, they refract No-show neutrinos. Detection of solar neutrinos that are light, and they are produced by fusion reactions in the sun's core is the only direct way almost transpar- to confirm that nuclear fusion is what causes the sun to shine. About ent-have sug- 2% of the sun's energy is thought to be emitted as neutrinos; the rest gested uses for as heat and light. The detection of solar neutrinos has not been a them as insulators in refrigerators, buildings, and windows. Half an simple matter because they are low in energy, have no charge and inch of a silica aerogel can do what it takes 3½ inches of a fiberglass little or no mass, move at the speed of light, and are not stopped by insulator to do. Aerogels are being evaluated for use in space trivial barriers (like the earth). Nonetheless, for the past 23 years, the research to capture unharmed, fast-moving particles. The prepara- interactions of the higher energy solar neutrinos with an isotope of tion of an aerogel begins with the preparation of a gelatinous chlorine have been monitored in a vat at the Homestake Gold Mine polymer. High pressures combined with high temperatures are then in South Dakota. From these underground measurements, the used to remove the liquid from the gel in such a way that surface "solar neutrino problem" has surfaced: only a third or a fourth of tension is not created: the fluid enters a supercritical state (gas and the number of neutrinos expected on the basis of standard solar liquid are physically the same) and the gel does not collapse in on models is detected. Is the shortfall due to a faulty detector, incorrect itself. Air moves in as the fluid moves out and what remains is an airy formulation of the physics of the sun, or a misunderstanding of mesh, a kind of solid smoke. Powerful pills. Well over half a million Americans are currently taking the drug Prozac in order to control depression and other Brookhaven National Laboratory common psychological disorders, including anxiety, obsessive- compulsive behaviors, and bulimia. So far, Prozac is acting as something of a wonder drug; it is highly effective, causes few dangerous side effects, and is already the most widely prescribed antidepressant after just 4 years on the market. Prozac and earlier generations of drugs for depression (the tricyclics and the mono- amine oxidase inhibitors) are not only changing the clinical outlook for depressed individuals but are providing valuable clues to the electrochemical circuitry of the brain and to how such circuitry might be modified in psychiatric diseases and in mental disorders. Depression has been associated with abnormally low activity of neurotransmitters, one of which, serotonin, appears to be Prozac's target. Normally, serotonin is released by a nerve cell, crosses a synapse to bind to a receptor on a second nerve cell, and then activates the second cell; later, serotonin is released by the second cell and is either degraded in the synaptic cleft or reabsorbed by the cell that originally secreted it. Prozac seems to block the reuptake of serotonin by the first cell. Because serotonin stays in the cleft longer, it also can work longer. Many pharmaceuticals besides Prozac have proved their worth in modulating neurologic function- ing; two good examples are L-DOPA and Ritalin. Drug receptors neutrino physics? Last year the Japanese Kamiokande II detector can often be discovered with conventional biochemical techniques; confirmed the neutrino deficit; it also tracked the path of the thus, in addition to the therapy they provide, psychoactive drugs neutrinos and showed that the neutrinos were indeed coming from (like a range of imaging techniques) are of value for associating the sun. This year, two gallium-based detectors (the joint Soviet- activity with architecture and are helping to map specific mental American SAGE detector and the Italian Gallex detector) are activities to specific regions of the brain. joining the search for solar neutrinos. The gallium detectors can Twinkling tweezers. Sperm that are too weak to penetrate the 1642 SCIENCE, VOL. 250 protective coat around an egg may soon be helped by laser beams. suppressors keep cells from engaging in runaway proliferation, but Femtosecond laser pulses can make tiny puncture holes in the egg's when they are mutated their hold on the cell is broken and tumors zona, thereby permeabilizing this protective layer so that the sperm can arise. The possible association of the NF-1 gene product with can push their way through to the egg. Many advances in laser tumor suppression has excited researchers studying all types of technology during the past 30 years have contributed to the human cancers, because the molecular mechanisms that trigger Von production of the new precision lasers that act like mini-tweezers, Recklinghausen disease may be similar to those that initiate other mini-scissors, and mini-scalpels, catching, trapping, puncturing, human tumors. cutting, and splicing subcellular structures and pushing or pulling Magical motifs. Molecular biologists have made significant them from place to place. The new laser tools have been used for a progress this year in clarifying some of the complex interactions of number of biomedical and biological projects-clipping off regions protein and DNA molecules that result in gene activation. Differ- of chromosomes (followed by assessments of the consequences of ential gene transcription, the turning on and off of specific genes, the loss to the cell), cutting and splicing membranes, and moving is what ensures that, for example, a developing heart cell will in fact organelles around inside cells. Chemists and physicists are using the grow and differentiate into a heart cell despite the presence of all the advanced lasers to study molecular behavior by "pushing" mol- genes necessary to make it a liver or stomach cell. Although many ecules tiny distances within crystals; they have also harnessed the different types of transcription factors have been identified and energy of lasers for splitting and ionizing molecules that participate studied in both simple and complex organisms, structural studies in simple chemical reactions and have confirmed quantum mechani- now indicate that the factors can be sorted into just a few categories cal predictions of simple reaction dynamics. on the basis of their conformations. Two distinct "motifs" are Growth industry. Everyone's favorite bacterium, Escherichia prevalent among the many transcription factors and appear to coli, is now churning out bovine growth hormone in quantities that mediate the formation of dimers that then bind to DNA. One motif put the pituitary glands of cows to shame. "Bovine somatotropin" is the leucine zipper; the other is a helix-loop-helix arrangement. is expected to be one of the next products of recombinant DNA Both are typically situated close to highly positively charged regions technology to reach the marketplace; at the threshold, it is encoun- of amino acids that interact with negatively charged DNA. tering a variety of obstacles. The hormone has powerful effects on "Partnering" has recently been observed to occur between dissimilar lactation and can increase milk yields by as much as 25% per cow. transcription factors. This increases the diversity of transcriptional Dairy lobbies in both the United States and Europe are troubled activating complexes that can be generated within a cell. Thus, from that the already precarious existence of small farmers will be further a relatively small number of transcription factors, many distinctive jeopardized if this new product is approved and large producers dimers can form; each can have a new specificity, new binding garner an even greater share of the market than they already control. affinity, and new effect on gene expression. Two states, Minnesota and Wisconsin, have for the time being Cosmic questions. The field of cosmology, which has long banned the sale of the recombinant hormone; so has the European been rich in theory, is now growing rich in data as well. A striking Parliament. There are also safety issues involved. Is the hormone safe example of the new wealth is the data returned this year by the for treated animals? Bovine somatotropin causes organ enlargement Cosmic Background Explorer satellite (COBE), which was launched and lower reproductive rates by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration in Novem- in treated animals. Is there a ber 1989. COBE is examining the "afterglow" of the Big Bang- possibility that the hor- the photons that were emitted within a few hundred thousand years mone will be dangerous to of the event. Ground-based observations of the cosmic background human consumers? Avail- radiation have shown it to be homogeneously distributed; in able evidence (published in the 24 COBE's first few minutes of observation, its infrared absolute August 1990 issue of Science) indicates spectrophotometer confirmed at high resolution that the spectral that the health risk to human consumers signature of the Cosmic Background Spectrum at the North Galactic Pole is negligible. Sometime next year when all afterglow was 1.2 the data are in from multi-year animal- that of a perfect 1.0 The smooth curve is the best safety studies, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration will decide black body. The fit blackbody spectrum whether to approve the product for commercial use. Because of the COBE measure- 0.8 continuing controversy, the National Institutes of Health also has ments are ad- 0.6 convened a consensus panel to assess the animal and human safety dressing two re- FIRAS, North Galactic Pole of bovine somatotropin. lated cosmologic 0.4 Gigantic gene. In July, the gene for type 1 neurofibromatosis or mysteries: why is Von Recklinghausen disease was cloned. The disease affects about the cosmos, over- Brightness 0.2 1 person in 3000, so its incidence is less than that of cystic fibrosis all, so homoge- 0.0 2 6 10 14 18 or sickle cell anemia in American blacks. The most common signs neous, and how Frequency (cycles/centimeter) are benign but extremely disfiguring tumors (called neurofibromas), did structure cafe-au-lait (patchy) spots on the skin, and nodules on the iris. In (stars, galaxies, clusters, superclusters) evolve out of the smooth a number of cases, learning disabilities, malignancies, and various background? The COBE instruments continue the search for the neurologic manifestations also occur. The NF-1 gene is huge and is tiny seeds of inhomogeneity that are thought to be the foci around thought to have as many as two million base pairs. At least three which the first stars would have formed; within a few months, these other genes are embedded in NF-1, piquing interest in whether measurements should reach a level of resolution of one part in 10⁵. these passenger genes have a role in the disease process. NF-1 is When the expected fluctuations are found, existing theories that highly conserved, which suggests that under normal conditions it account for the appearance of structure will need some refinement. may have some important cellular function. When the sequence of If the fluctuations do not appear, theorists will be back at square one NF-1 was compared with sequences of 20,000 other genes, striking looking for new energy sources to invoke along with the Big Bang homology was found with portions of two others. Current thinking to account for the formation of the universe. is that the three homologs are tumor suppressor genes. Tumor RUTH LEVY GUYER and DANIEL E. KOSHLAND, JR. 21 DECEMBER 1990 MOLECULE OF THE YEAR 1643 SCIENCE 22 DECEMBER 1989 VOLUME 246 NUMBER 4937 American Association for the Advancement of Science The Molecule of the Year Science serves its readers as a forum for the presentation and discussion of important issues related to the advance- ment of science, including the presentation of minority or con- flicting points of view, rather than by publishing only material on which a consensus has been reached. Accordingly, all ar- H istorians tend to personalize history. They use political leaders to symbolize war or peace, freedom or slavery, abundance or starvation. Political systems represented ticles published in Science-including editorials, news and by these individuals may be essential, but political leaders cannot cure disease comment, and book reviews-are signed and reflect the indi- vidual views of the authors and not official points of view without medicine, cannot improve crops without fertilizer, and cannot encourage the adopted by the AAAS or the institutions with which the au- literacy on which democracy depends without communications technology. The great thors are affiliated. advances of the past have been profoundly influenced by science and technology, and our present standard of living depends on them. Political systems can be designed to encourage Publisher: Richard S. Nicholson advances in science and are essential to the fair distribution of its products. Wealth must be Editor: Daniel E. Koshland, Jr. created before it can be distributed. News Editor: Ellis Rubinstein Managing Editor: Patricia A. Morgan Sometimes, in the rush of daily events and the ease of describing personalities instead of Deputy Editors: Philip H. Abelson (Engineering and Applied analyzing issues, the fundamental causes of progress can be obscured. To symbolize that Sciences): John I. Brauman (Physical Sciences) scientific progress and to honor the structure that creates it, Science has decided to name a Molecule of the Year. The molecule will symbolize a discovery or technique that may EDITORIAL STAFF Assistant Managing Editor: Monica M. Bradford actually involve many molecules, but the award will be singular to force us to choose one Senior Editor: Eleanore Butz such discovery each year that is likely to have the greatest influence on history. We will not Associate Editors: Keith W. Brocklehurst, Martha Coleman, R. Brooks Hanson, Pamela J. Hines, Barbara Jasny, Katrina require that the initial discovery has to be made in the year of the award because many L. Kelner, Edith Meyers, Linda J. Miller, Phillip D. Szuromi, David F. Voss discoveries are not recognized immediately or require refinement for optimum value. The Letters Editor: Christine Gilbert award will, however, reflect the fact that the particular discovery has reached in the year of Book Reviews: Katherine Livingston, editor Contributing Editor: Lawrence I. Grossman the award a stage of development and understanding sufficient to establish its long-term Chief Production Editor: Ellen E. Murphy significance. Editing Department: Lois Schmitt, head; Mary McDaniel, Patricia L. Moe, Barbara P. Ordway This year's award goes to the DNA polymerase molecule and to the technique called Copy Desk: Joi S. Granger, Margaret E. Gray, MaryBeth Shartle, Beverly Shields polymerase chain reaction. PCR, as it is called, has developed into one of the most powerful Production Manager: James Landry tools of modern biology since its discovery several years ago, and its applications are Assistant Production Manager: Kathleen C. Fishback Art Director: Yolanda M. Rook burgeoning. One of its first applications allowed an Indian mother to establish the identity Graphics and Production: Holly Bishop, Julie Cherry, of her son for immigration purposes. It has this year served as the basis for making human Catherine S. Siskos Systems Analyst: William Carter antibodies in a bacterium. It is revolutionizing the approaches researchers are taking to many problems in biology. Other properties and potentials of PCR are discussed in the NEWS STAFF section that follows, as are many other discoveries that could easily have been chosen in a Correspondent-at-Large: Barbara J. Culliton Deputy News Editors: John M. Benditt, Jean Marx, year that has seen major advances of science in almost every discipline. Colin Norman Some who look into the mirror darkly see the waste disposal problem and forget the News and Comment/Research News: Mark H. Crawford, Constance Holden, Richard A. Kerr, Eliot Marshall, Joseph great numbers of people alive today, see the pesticide problem and forget the availability of Palca, Robert Pool, Leslie Roberts, Marjorie Sun, M. Mitchell Waldrop food to many, or see the acid rain problem and forget the popularity of the automobile. European Correspondent: Jeremy Cherfas Each widely adopted technical advance generates new problems that themselves cry out for West Coast Correspondent: Marcia Barinaga technical solutions. The problems are real. So, is this progress? BUSINESS STAFF To answer that question I propose a simple objective test: the era swap experiment. Circulation Director: John G. Colson Each person could choose to be transported back to some previous time but only on Fulfillment Manager: Marlene Zendell Business Staff Manager: Deborah Rivera-Wienhold condition that he or she adopt all the features and restrictions of that era. In the 1800s, for Single Copies Manager: Ann Ragland example, the globe was less crowded, the air was clearer, the water cleaner, and there were Classified Advertising Supervisor: Amie Charlene King no plastics. However, life expectancy was half of what it is today, transportation was by ADVERTISING REPRESENTATIVES horseback or on foot, and medical operations were performed without anesthetics. Even a Director: Earl J. Scherago few years ago a high proportion of women died in childbirth, and pneumonia was one of the Traffic Manager: Donna Rivera Traffic Manager (Recruitment): Gwen Canter major causes of death for middle-aged people. Faced with such realities, who would choose Advertising Sales Manager: Richard L. Charles to live even a few years in the past? Marketing Manager: Herbert L. Burklund Employment Sales Manager: Edward C. Keller Our Molecule of the Year is a symbol that we are honoring the process of progress Sales: New York, NY 10036; J. Kevin Henebry, 1515 Broad- way (212-730-1050); Scotch Plains, NJ 07076: C. Richard rather than a personality. Most of the discoveries of science (and probably much of political Callis, 12 Unami Lane (201-889--4873); Chicago, IL 60914: history) result from the actions of many individuals, one of whom may contribute slightly Jack Ryan, 525 W. Higgins Rd. (312-885-8675); San Jose, CA 95112: Bob Brindley, 310 S. 16th St. (408-998-4690); Dorset, more than others. Each person who moves the discovery one step further contributes to the VT 05251: Fred W. Dieffenbach, Kent Hill Rd. (802-867-5581); benefit of all. Science is an international enterprise; its practitioners and those who benefit Damascus, MD 20872: Rick Sommer, 11318 Kings Valley Dr. (301-972-9270); U.K., Europe: Nick Jones, +44(0647)52918; from the knowledge it creates are located throughout the world. The new knowledge- Telex 42513; FAX (0647) 52053. which translates into living standards-can be used for good or evil, can be distributed fairly Information for contributors appears on page XI of the 22 or unfairly. The challenge to science is to generate the new discoveries. The challenge to December 1989 issue. Editorial correspondence, including society is to use those discoveries for the betterment of all.-DANIEL E. KOSHLAND, JR. requests for permission to reprint and reprint orders, should be sent to 1333 H Street, NW, Washington, DC 20005. Tele- phone: 202-326-6500. Advertising correspondence should be sent to Tenth Floor, 1515 Broadway, New York, NY 10036. Telephone 212-730-1050 or WU Telex 968082 SCHERAGO, or FAX 212-382-3725. 22 DECEMBER 1989 EDITORIAL I54I Perspective "target sequence," is a gene or segment of DNA. In a matter of hours, this target sequence can be amplified a millionfold. How this is accomplished is shown in the accompanying figure. The comple- mentary strands of a double-stranded molecule of DNA are separat- ed by heating. Two small pieces of synthetic DNA, each comple- menting a specific sequence at one end of the target sequence, serve as primers. Each primer binds to its complementary sequence. Polymerases start at each primer and copy the sequence of that The Molecule of strand. Within a short time, exact replicas of the target sequence have been produced. In subsequent cycles, double-stranded mole- the Year cules of both the original DNA and the copies are separated; primers bind again to complementary sequences and the polymerase repli- cates them. At the end of many cycles, the pool is greatly enriched in the small pieces of DNA that have the target sequences, and this RUTH LEVY GUYER AND amplified genetic information is then available for further analysis. DANIEL E. KOSHLAND, JR. Evolving PCR. Many improvements on the original PCR meth- od have been made. One of the first was the substitution of a heat- stable enzyme for the original DNA polymerase, which was heat- labile and had to be replenished after each cycle. The stable "Taq S cience HAS SELECTED THE POLYMERASE CHAIN REACTION AS the major scientific development of 1989 and has chosen for polymerase," which comes from bacteria that live in hot springs, its first "Molecule of the Year" the DNA polymerase molecule continues working almost indefinitely despite the heating steps. Taq that drives the reaction. The list from which the polymerase chain polymerase improved the yield, generated more specific and longer products, and facilitated automation. reaction (PCR) was chosen included an impressive array of accom- plishments in many areas of science and technology; additional New strategies have also been devised for flanking unknown kudos are therefore conferred below to 17 of the other big "stories" sequences with defined primer sites. For standard PCR, the se- that made 1989 an exciting year for scientists and for followers and quences at both ends of a target sequence have to be known. beneficiaries of science. Although the PCR procedure was intro- "Inverse" PCR provides a way of sequencing DNA outside the duced several years ago, use of the technique truly burgeoned in primer sites rather than between two primer sites. Primer molecules 1989; in much the same way, the full potentials of many of the are synthesized with their sequences reversed. The target DNA is cut interesting "runner-up" scientific achievements of this year are likely and circularized, and, when the polymerase extends the primer, it to be realized sometime in the years to come. does so around the circle in the direction opposite that which would The first PCR papers were published in 1985. Since that time have been taken by standard PCR primers. "Anchored" PCR was PCR has grown into an increasingly powerful, versatile, and useful developed for studying genes that encode proteins for which partial technique. The PCR "explosion" of 1989 can be seen as the result of sequences are known. For anchored PCR, only one defined primer sequence is needed, not two. a combination of improvements in and optimization of the method- ology, introduction of new variations on the basic PCR theme, and The implications of inverse and anchored PCR for DNA sequenc- growing awareness by scientists of what PCR has to offer. With ing are astounding: enormous stretches of DNA can be sequenced PCR, tiny bits of embedded, often hidden, genetic information can once a tiny bit of sequence is known. Both techniques make it be amplified into large quantities of accessible, identifiable, and possible to proceed along the DNA, continually redefining "ends" to which synthetic primers can be bound and then extended. analyzable material. A single cell provides enough material for analysis; a single hair can be used to identify an individual. Applications of PCR. The basic PCR procedure has been The basic PCR reaction. The starting material for PCR, the valuable in disease diagnosis because specific DNA sequences can be amplified enormously (the needle in the haystack). One of the first uses led to improved diagnosis of a genetic disease (sickle cell anemia), because the PCR technique depended on much less clinical Double-stranded DNA material than standard procedures. (Because PCR is exquisitely sensitive, unusual care is taken to avoid the amplification of contami- nants.) PCR can also be used to amplify trace amounts of genetic material of infec- + Strand separation tious agents in blood, cells, water, food, and other clinical and environmental samples. PCR-based tests are especially valuable for + detecting pathogens that are difficult or Primer Primer binding Primer impossible to culture, such as the agents of Lyme disease and AIDS. For cancer diagno- sis and cancer research, PCR can indicate + Primer extension what genes are expressed or turned off, because the messenger RNA molecules asso- Many cycles ciated with such genes can be converted into complementary DNA sequences that then can be amplified. Enrichment of target sequence DNA samples in trace materials (semen, 22 DECEMBER 1989 PERSPECTIVE IS43 blood, hairs) found at the scene of a crime have been compared with thus raising the spector of a black market in RU 486 sales.) The full DNA samples from crime suspects; both acquittals and convictions potential of RU 486 is only hinted at by available studies: in have resulted from such comparisons. Missing persons have also addition to terminating pregnancies, it facilitates problem deliveries, been positively identified through PCR-based comparisons. The and its steroid-like actions may be effective in the treatment of resolution of paternity cases has been aided by comparing DNA certain types of cancer, Cushing's disease (which is characterized by from a child with that of the alleged father. And matches of excess cortisone production), wound healing, and glaucoma. transplant donors and recipients are facilitated with PCR. "Univer- Most universal appeal. The year 1989 was a banner one for space sal" primers are being used to determine the extent of homology in exploration. The "Planet of the Year" was clearly Neptune and the the sequences of conserved genes from different samples. Such "Spacecraft of the Decade" was clearly Voyager 2. On 24 August, comparisons, which help to establish evolutionary relations among Voyager's Neptune flyby capped a more than 10-billion-kilometer organisms, can even include extinct organisms, because DNA Grand Tour of the solar system, and the final sets of dazzling images samples extracted from mummies, bones, and other archival materi- als can be used. PCR may soon replace gene cloning as the amplification method of choice for gene sequencing, for which large amounts of DNA are needed. PCR is also providing new options in molecular genetics studies for adding genetic information to target materials or for altering what is already there. The rate at which new PCR-based techniques have been devel- oped suggests that this technology is proliferating as rapidly as its Taq polymerase molecules replicate target sequences. Other major scientific developments of 1989. The choice of the PCR polymerase as the Molecule of the Year was not a simple one because 1989 saw major developments in many areas of science and technology. Some of these advances are the first steps to what may develop into major discoveries but were "runners-up" because their full applicability is not yet known. Some represent steady progress, but not breakthroughs, in fields of major importance. Listed here are the scientific developments of this year that, because of their great potential, were close competitors of PCR. Most mind-boggling synthesis. The correct synthesis of the compound palytoxin, which has one sextillion (10²¹) possible of planets, moons, and rings (of a total of 100,000 sent altogether) isomers, was a major triumph of synthetic organic chemistry. and bits of data (of 5 trillion sent) were beamed back to Earth. The Palytoxin has the chemical formula C₁₂₉H₂₂₃N₃O₅₄; it has been Voyager mission, which included two Voyager spacecraft, began in described as a substance that gives "new meaning to the word 1977 and has been an unmitigated success. Voyager 1 visited Jupiter macromolecule. Natural palytoxin is extracted from coral and is a and Saturn; Voyager 2 visited the Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and potent toxin that once was used for poisoning spear tips. Its only Neptune systems. Of the outer planets only Pluto was not in the known source-coral that live in a 6 foot by 2 foot tidepool near right place at the right time for a flyby. Another space highlight of Hana, Maui-proved difficult to discover, because local lore had it the year was the Soviet Phobos mission, which provided new that those who collected palytoxin were cursed. The curse apparent- information about Mars before contact with Earth was lost. And ly did not apply to chemists: 8 years of strategic planning and two important missions were begun: the Magellan spacecraft set out experimental work culminated this year in the correct synthesis of for a 1990 encounter with Venus, and the Gallileo spacecraft left for this complex compound. The mammoth project has yielded many Jupiter, which it should reach in 1995. new procedures and strategies that can be applied to other difficult Most likely to succeed. Various technologic advances have, over organic syntheses. the years, made possible the preparation of pure populations of Most controversial. One world problem whose solution could highly specific antibody molecules; such antibodies bind to target solve many others is overpopulation. So the availability this year of substances (antigens) and have many uses in vivo and in clinical and RU 486, a pill that is effective at halting gestation and thereby at laboratory tests. The latest advance, which was made this year, is terminating pregnancies, has caused great excitement. RU 486 also likely to revolutionize the antibody industry: it involves antibody may be one of the most controversial drugs ever developed, with production by genetically engineered bacteria. A complete "library" politics and ethics, not efficacy, at the center of the controversy. The of antibody genes from an animal can be introduced into bacteria pill is a steroid hormone analog that blocks and the binding regions of antibodies produced. The antibodies are the action of progesterone during preg- screened for the desired specific reactivities. The appropriate gene is nancy. Since progesterone is essential then amplified and antibodies churned out in quantity, and it is a both for establishing and sustain- comparatively easy job to screen a million molecules a day. This ing a pregnancy, blockage by RU procedure may generate antibodies with higher affinities than 486 causes miscarriage. In devel- those induced in animals; immunization is not necessary, and oping countries, some 200,000 therefore difficult immunizations-for example, where the ap- women die each year from bun- propriate antigen is not known or is toxic-no longer present a gled abortions, and, for them, an problem. This system should be useful for producing antibod- antigestation pill would be lifesav- ies that catalyze enzyme reactions, that bind to target antigens in ing. (At present, however, RU 486 is vivo or in diagnostic tests, that function as biosensors, and that available only in France and China, facilitate clinical and basic research. I544 SCIENCE, VOL. 246 Most absorbing. The ability of scientists and engineers to depart vaccine development. The search for effective drugs for treating from and improve upon what nature has to offer is not unique to the AIDS patients has intensified recently as the efficacy of AZT, the biological sciences but has also been a goal of materials science only currently approved AIDS drug, has begun to wane. AZTofren research. The 1990s have in fact been designated by the National works well for many Research Council as the "Age of Materials.' Many novel materials months; but after about that are lighter, stronger, or harder than known substances or have 6 months, AIDS viruses other exceptional features have been fashioned by materials scientists begin showing reduced by combining molecules and atoms in new and different ways. An susceptibility to the interesting example that was unveiled in 1989 was Stealth technolo- drug, and by 18 months gy; the goal of this technology is to evade radar detection, and the the drug's clinical value B2 Stealth bombers absorb, rather than reflect, radar signals. Along is sharply reduced. In with the advanced materials, advanced methods for fabricating early summer, the drug them, such as molecular beam epitaxy and laser vapor deposition, ddI passed muster in came into wide use this year. preliminary clinical trials Best supporting actor. An extremely potent new immunosup- designed to determine its toxicity. A group of AIDS patients, some pressive drug, FK506, was made available this year for experimental of whom could not tolerate AZT, tolerated this purine analog for a and clinical use. Immunosuppression is crucial to the success of period of 42 weeks and had increased energy levels and some tissue and organ transplants but, until now, only cyclosporin A has improved immune functioning. This month the possibility was been widely used for suppressing the immune system. FK506 and raised that protective immunity against AIDS might be induced cyclosporin A have entirely different structures; therefore, it was with a vaccine: in a monkey model, vaccination against a simian surprising that their actions were much the same. Each binds to an immunodeficiency virus prevented AIDS-like disease when the abundant (but different) protein inside target cells. Each inhibits the macaques were later challenged with lethal viruses. The study raised enzymatic activity of the target protein. The two target proteins the possibility that protection might be achieved even if infection appear to have the same enzymatic activity and to influence the was not entirely prevented. folding of cellular proteins, the transduction of signals in cells, and Most fundamental. Physicists are no longer losing sleep trying to the activation of certain lymphocytic cells. Comparisons of the generate enough Zs. Z° bosons are the vectors of the weak nuclear actions of these two different immunosuppressors may assist in force. The standard model of high-energy physics posits that all sorting out the molecular events that work together to bring about immunosuppression. elementary particles are members of distinct but parallel families. Physicists have long thought that the number of such families is Most refreshing. September brought some long-awaited good three, but, in theory, more families are possible. This year at the news for individuals with cystic fibrosis (CF) and CF Stanford Linear Accelerator Center, the CERN European Center carriers: the CF gene was identified. There is no animal model for this disease, and the identification of for Particle Physics, and the Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory, Z° bosons were for the first time produced in quantities that were the gene was an important milestone in CF research. sufficient for analyzing particle masses and lifetimes. The results In CF, the lungs, the pancreas, and the sweat glands from CERN and Stanford have narrowed the family number to all malfunction; a thick mucus clogs the lungs and this three, thus bolstering the validity of the standard model as well as promotes opportunistic infections that destroy lung the validity of the Big Bang theory for the origin of matter. tissue; affected individuals usually die before they Most heated discussion. The condition of the global environ- reach the age of 30. The identification of the CF gene ment, both present and future, was one of the biggest scientific is expected to have immediate payoffs in screening for topics last year, and still at issue this year are many of the same carriers of the gene, in prenatal diagnosis, and for questions. Has global warming from greenhouse gases been detect- developing therapies based on improved understand- ed, when might larger changes occur, and what should be done ing of the consequences of the genetic defect. The CF about the situation? New measurements of the depletion of ozone in predicted sequence of the protein product of the CF the atmosphere and the expansion of the ozone hole suggest that gene has been helpful in suggesting a function for this protein in normal individuals and the nature of the ozone losses are occurring outside the hole, although the specific mechanisms of this type of loss are unclear. Clouds continue to be of aberration in affected individuals. interest because of their role in the earth's energy budget and Most penetrating. Although the scanning tunneling microscope because of the part played by polar stratospheric clouds in chemical (STM) was developed some years ago, widespread use of this reactions that lead to ozone depletion. Global climate models, which technology really began in 1989. STM provides atomic-scale infor- are undergoing steady improvement and have been used more and mation about surface topography. Images of a surface's atomic peaks more, should figure into the future environment-related decisions and valleys are generated as a probe moves along the contours; and actions of the international community. electrons jump from the scanning probe to the surface, tunneling into "forbidden" areas, when an electric field is applied. The atomic Most productive. In June, a genetically engineered kidney hor- mone was approved for use by the U.S. Food and Drug Administra- structures and electronic properties of semiconductors, high-tem- perature superconductors, and biologic molecules in air and under tion. This could turn out to be one of the biotechnology industry's big commercial medical successes. Erythropoietin, known by the water are now being almost routinely determined by STM and its offshoot, atomic force microscopy. A recent innovation involves the trade name Epogen, stimulates the production of red blood cells. In use of the sharp tip of the scanner for drawing lines on and punching normal individuals, the natural hormone is instrumental in replen- holes in the surfaces of crystals; this application of the instruments ishing the billion or more red blood cells that turn over each day; in for a purpose other than scanning and tunneling surfaces may make patients with kidney failure (of whom there are 95,000 in the United States), there is a tremendous red blood cell deficit. These it possible to generate nanometer-size patterns on electronic devices. patients typically receive regular post-dialysis transfusions, because Most scrutinized disease. AIDS continues to be elusive, but this dialysis leaves them weak and anemic. However, with injections of year some headway may have been made both in treatment and in Epogen, red blood cell production resumes, the patients are ener- 22 DECEMBER 1989 PERSPECTIVE 1545 gized, and the need for transfusions is obviated. (Patients with AIDS and certain cancers might also benefit from the boost to red blood cell production provided by Epogen.) If, like Epogen, other blood products can be made commercially by genetic engineering procedures, reliance on transfusions might be lessened and the incidence of transfusion-associated cases of AIDS and hepatitis could be lowered. Already in the commercial pipeline are other blood products like factor VIII. Most original. RNA molecules, which once were thought to be the middlemen in the process by which proteins were made from DNA, have come into their own. RNA can cut, splice, and assemble RNA sequences without help from any other types of molecules. It is now clear that in RNA-protein complexes, the RNA segments do the catalytic work while some of their partner proteins serve mainly in structural capacities. Thus it may eventually be possible to block gene expression inside cells or interfere with virus infections through the use of catalytic RNA molecules. It is also becoming clear how transfer RNA molecules, which take amino acids to the ribosome where they are added to growing protein chains, get properly "charged" by synthetase enzymes. The discovery that RNA can be self-sufficient lends support to the hypothesis that the most primi- Wide World tive biotic world was an RNA-based world; it was into this world that proteins came only later to specialize in some of the activities theoretical considerations. New microanalytic techniques have in- that RNA could already do. creased understanding of reaction mechanisms and processes in the Most tantalizing. If one science news event most excited the earth, have improved dating accuracy, and should soon provide data imaginations of the scientific community, the public, and the press it on isotopic compositions of individual mineral grains. was certainly the claim in March of Most antithetical pair. There is increasing understanding of the the achievement of cold nuclear fu- types of genes that contribute to the development of cancer and how sion in a jar. The prospect that a they do it. A fruitful new approach for cancer therapy may someday plentiful and cheap energy supply involve intervention in the expression or loss of expression of cancer- might become available for an ener- associated genes. Two functionally opposite types of genes, both gy-hungry world engendered great active in normal cells, play a part in tumor development. Oncogenes interest and excitement. As soon as are cellular genes that affect normal growth, development, and the the claim was made, laboratories all transduction of signals in cells; disruption of the normal functioning over the world scrambled to repeat of oncogenes (for example, when they are picked up by tumor the experiment, apparently to no viruses or acted on by carcinogens) leads to abnormal growth of cells avail. Yet some still believe some- and the development of cancer. Other genes, the tumor suppressor thing intriguing is going on in those genes, act in a very different manner. They normally block tumor jars, although what it is continues to development and drive cells toward normality, but, when specific elude explanation. Investigations of mutations accumulate in a cell or when tumor suppressor gene cold fusion continue but at lower functions are lost, cancers can arise. The balance struck between energy levels. oncogenes and tumor suppressor genes appears key to whether cell Most earthshaking. For some behavior will be normal or aberrant. time, structural engineers in Califor- Most thought-provoking. Can a machine be taught to think like nia have been devising ways to shore a human? And, if the workings of the machine can be delineated, up structures against earthquakes, will the workings of the human mind also become clear? These twin and a test of their work came this questions are at the center of neural network, or connectionism, year. On 17 October 1989, an research, a fiercely competitive interdisciplinary field (combining earthquake with a mainshock mag- electrical engineering, neurophysiology, physics, behavioral psy- nitude close to 7 rocked the San chology, and others) that has gained new momentum in the past 2 Francisco Bay Area. In the city's hard-hit Marina district, artificial years. (For example, the United States is reported to have close to fill amplified the waves of the earthquake, and many buildings were 3000 researchers already working in this area, Japan has several destroyed. Elsewhere the extent of damage varied, and altogether hundred, and the European Economic Community has 1000.) fewer than 100 people were killed. The experience pointed up the Learning algorithms are being designed, circuits are being wired up importance of reinforcing older structures and of attending closely like neurons in the brain (each usually with many inputs but only to new building design and city planning (on what types of soil one output), and machines are learning such skills as how to should buildings be built?). These are currently the best defensive pronounce previously unencountered English words and how to actions that can be taken against earthquakes, because consistently calculate the curvature of an image from its shading patterns. The accurate short-term predictions of earthquakes are still a long way commercial potential of robots that can write, speak, and in other off. Earth scientists have been gaining new insights into dynamic ways interact with their environments appears to be limitless; what features of the mantle and core through seismologic and experimen- insights such machines will provide about how thinking occurs tal studies (in particular, through use of the diamond anvil cell) and remains to be seen. I546 SCIENCE, VOL. 246 THE ATLANTIC MONTHLY The United States showed the world how a government could foster the freedom required for basic science research, the results of which can be negligible or earthshaking. That free- dom-and America's technological lead-have eroded at the same time MANAGING THE UNMANAGEABLE BY ROBERT P. CREASE AND NICHOLAS P. SAMIOS N THE FALL OF 1942 J. ROBERT OP- penheimer walked into the Presidio, in San Francisco, to undergo a physical. He was about to be tapped by General Leslie Groves, the head of a top-secret Army project, to establish and administer a classified laboratory in Los Alamos, New Mexico, that would investigate the possibility of developing an atomic bomb. Oppenheimer and his bosses took it for granted, given the source of the money, the lab's directive, and the need for security, that the facility would follow conventional practice and be mili- tarized. Hence his trip to the Presidio; the physical mission set up a string of national laboratories, it chose to would be the first step toward being commissioned a manage them according to a similar scheme, called lieutenant colonel, which in turn would be the first step administrative contracting, in which independent man- toward taking command of the largest and most ambi- agers were hired, often universities or similar nonprofit tious scientific project yet attempted. organizations. The system was viewed as essential to the But Oppenheimer never went through officer training. special environment needed for basic research, which, He never needed to. Key scientists refused to come to unlike applied research, seeks an understanding of the Los Alamos under conditions of military hierarchy and structures of nature for its own sake. Partly as a result, the bureaucracy, which, they said, were antithetical to the United States forged ahead of other nations in postwar spirit of science. Scientists thrived when they were science and in the technology that derived from it. judged according to competence, not rank. Under pres- Today that innovative and unique system is in jeopar- sure, Groves relented. On February 25, 1943, he sent dy, threatened by a tendency to manage federal under- Oppenheimer a letter promising that although the mili- takings of all kinds, including scientific projects, as tary would provide resources and general direction, for at though they were businesses-constrained by business least the time being Los Alamos would remain civilian, procedures and requirements and responsive to busi- managed by contract with the University of California. ness incentives and pressures. Although we will focus Even Groves would come to recognize that this arrange- on the problems of the national laboratories, owing to our ment worked far more effectively than the original, con- familiarity with them, we believe that similar manage- ventional one would have. ment problems are or soon will be experienced in con- The letter set a momentous precedent for relations be- nection with large government-sponsored scientific proj- tween the U.S. government and its scientists. When, ects in other branches of science. The impact on science after the war, the newly founded Atomic Energy Com- has gone virtually unnoticed by the public, because it has 80 ILLUSTRATION BY BILL NELSON JANUARY 1991 THE ATLANTIC MONTHLY occurred in a series of tiny steps, no single one of which danity of unforeseen consequences in discoveries of has been large enough to attract attention. But it is op- genuinely new structures of nature. pressively evident to those who work inside the national Improving medical techniques was hardly on the mind laboratories. The attempt to treat basic research as a of the German physicist Wilhelm Roentgen as he tin- business has slowly changed the structure and spirit of kered with cathode-ray tubes in November of 1895. But these laboratories, and begun to strip away the special when he explored the curious fact that a fluorescent protection this country once accorded them and to taint screen near his apparatus was glowing, contrary to all ex- the fragile atmosphere needed for them to thrive. At a pectations, he ended up discovering a wholly new phe- time of widespread lamentations about the loss of U.S. nomenon of nature, which he called x-rays. Within three technological competitiveness, it is ironic that we are de- months they had been used to examine bone fractures. stroying one of the most important means by which we His discovery triggered a series of other important scien- established that technological competitiveness in the tific discoveries, such as that of radioactivity. first place. "I don't think the idea of helping suffering humanity ever entered our minds," Howard Florey, of Oxford's Changing the World by Chance Dunn School of Pathology, once recalled of the momert in the late 1930s when he and his colleague Ernest Chain LTHOUGH BASIC AND APPLIED RESEARCH ARE OF- began a survey of antibacterial mechanisms. But on their A ten intertwined in practice, their intellectual list of microbes to study was penicillin, which had been missions are distinct. Basic research aims to rec- discovered accidentally only a few years before but ognize previously unknown structures of na- whose antibacterial properties had been neglected. ture, whereas applied research aims to make some al- Much of modern medicine is based on a substance whose ready known process possible or more effective. The discovery and development were matters of sheer chance structures of nature recognized in basic research may and disinterested academic research. have practical applications, but whether they do or not, "Moonshine," responded the British scientist Ernst and if so of what type, are generally not the professional Rutherford, who discovered the nucleus in 1911, to the concern of the basic researcher. At the beginning of this suggestion that energy might be obtained from it. Atomic century a popular postprandial toast around the Caven- energy was equally far from the thoughts of the Italian dish Laboratory of Cambridge University, in England, physicist Enrico Fermi when, in 1934, he began bom- was, "The electron: may it never be of any use to any- barding the nuclei of all known elements with neutrons, body!" That wish, as the physicist Abraham Pais once and was puzzled by the results he achieved with the wryly remarked, was unfulfilled. A few decades earlier, heaviest known element, uranium. The German scien- during an inspection of the Royal Institution, in London, tists Otto Hahn and Fritz Strassmann were trying to make a skeptical William Gladstone questioned the potential sense of Fermi's odd results when, at the end of 1938, value of electricity. "Sir," came the waggish riposte, they announced that barium was a by-product of such "someday you will tax it!" bombardments. A month later two other German research- The American sociologist Robert Merton once devot- ers, Otto Frisch and Lise Meitner, were only trying to ex- ed an essay to what he called "the unanticipated conse- plain that puzzling result when they suggested that urani- quences of purposive social action." Human action, he um nuclei could split, or "fission," with a concomitant wrote, often brings about processes or results that are un- release of energy. The outcome of all this puzzle-solving, intended by the actors, and these can affect either the ac- it hardly needs mentioning, transformed the world. tors or society as a whole, and can be beneficial or not. Al- The unintended consequences of scientific research though Merton was specifically discussing social action, can reach far beyond science and technology, to have a his point is equally true of scientific research. But where- cultural impact as well. One remarkable and well-docu- as most human action seeks to avoid unanticipated con- mented example is the profound effect that telescopic as- sequences, basic research courts them. Many discoveries tronomy had on Milton's poetry, and in particular on his are unsurprising, expected outcomes of deliberate re- imaginative depiction of the space of the universe in search programs. Nevertheless, basic researchers are al- Paradise Lost. Some three hundred years later one might ways aware of the possibility of-and often hope for- consider how x-rays, CAT scans, and radio telescopes novel developments. The British theoretical physicist have further altered human perception and imagination. P.A.M. Dirac, who devised the "Dirac equation," which It is unfortunate that the beneficial effects of scientific accounts in a comprehensive way for the behavior of the discoveries often become so thoroughly integrated into electron, used to say that his equation was smarter than the world that they are taken for granted, as part of its he was, because it contained solutions to problems of warp and woof, whereas the pernicious applications of which he was unaware. Moreover, historical illustrations scientific discoveries are often portrayed as representa- of unintended practical consequences of discoveries are tive of scientific activity itself. Pessimists anticipate that legion. We will cite a few examples to illustrate the mun- basic research will deliver new forms of power to be so- 82 JANUARY 1991 THE ATLANTIC MONTHLY cially abused; optimists anticipate a reform of social condition of basic science is a laboratory environment structures which will eliminate such abuses. that facilitates such freedom of inquiry. A laboratory is Temperamentally, scientists tend to be optimists, and more than a collection of equipment and the space to if pressed will defend their work by saying that in the house it. It is a theater in which experiments are per- long run, at least, the effects of science are beneficial. formed and witnessed, and like theaters of the more fa- But arguments about the value of basic research that are miliar kind, it is specially built for that purpose. Provid- based on anticipations of either social utility or harm are ing such environments was less complicated in the first weak, because they are based on analogy: the future will few decades of this century, when scientists worked be like the past. A deeper motive for basic research is alone or in groups of twos and threes, when important that it ultimately leads not just to understanding of the laboratory skills were glassblowing and carpentry, and structure of nature but to self-understanding as well. when one required no more than an ordinary room in What is nature? and Who are we? are not distinguishable which to perform an experiment. At that time laboratory questions. "Whatever nature has in store for mankind, equipment was workbench-sized and relatively inexpen- unpleasant as it may be," Fermi once said, "men must ac- sive, and much of it was built by the researchers them- cept, for ignorance is never better than knowledge." selves; until the 1930s the first morning task for a physi- cist who needed power supplies often was to build batter- ies. With the Manhattan Project and the postwar establish- An Odd System That Worked ment of the national laboratory system, however, all that HE PHRASE "MANAGING BASIC SCIENCE" MIGHT changed. "Little Science" became "Big Science," in the T at first seem oxymoronic, like the oft-repeated words of Alvin Weinberg, a former director of Oak Ridge jest about "military intelligence." Manage- National Laboratory, in Tennessee. Researchers might ment is the effective coordination of resources work in teams not of twos or threes but of dozens and and personnel toward a particular end; how can one coor- even hundreds; the cost of experiments reached not tens dinate an activity whose end is unforeseen and unfore- of thousands but hundreds of millions of dollars. Making seeable? Nevertheless, basic science stagnates when it is equipment was subcontracted to industry, and the space not effectively supervised. Salaries of basic scientists, for to house it might require hangar-sized buildings. instance, are lower than those of ap- Today Weinberg's phrase is unfortunately associated plied scientists. Basic scientists with an unproductive debate about science fund- cannot be paid competitive ing policy in which "Big Science" often carries connotations similar to those of "Big Busi- salaries, because there is no guarantee that their ness." The suggestion is that large scien- work is marketable; tific projects unfairly monopolize scien- and even when it tific capital, squeezing out the little eventually happens to be so, the re- them. Neverthe- less, many ex- RESEARCH = Is $1510 VIEHEO NOT VEHICLES As A BUT OF SOCIAL As AS AND guy who might make valuable innova- tions if given a chance. But the anal- turns are usual- ogy is false. Knowledge generated by 1y too far in the large scientific projects, unlike the future to affect profits of large corporations, be- comes the property of the entire com- munity and restructures the scientific tremely bright peo- background against which research ple find that the AN teams large and small plan and execute relative freedom to fol- NATURE. new ventures. Moreover, "Big Science" is low one's nose in prepar- a general term whose meaning varies from one branch of science to another. It can refer to ing a research program, col- laborating and competing with the construction of large instruments used by only smart and dedicated colleagues, and a small fraction of the community at once, as in astron- the thrill of the prospect of making fundamental discov- omy; large equipment complexes serving many individ- eries are ample compensation for unequal pay. uals simultaneously; as in materials science; or the co- Creating and maintaining a healthy scientific culture is ordination of the work of numerous small research teams. the aim of science management, and it involves tending as in biology. In each case the funding needs, the size to both the intellectual and the institutional conditions of and role of research groups, and the information flow be- basic research. The intellectual condition is freedom of tween project users and the wider scientific community inquiry-allowing and even encouraging scientists to fol- is different. It is thus meaningless to debate the value low new paths should they open up, to risk dead ends, to of Big Science in general; projects must be judged on shift direction abruptly on a hunch. The institutional an individual basis. 83 JANUARY 1991 THE ATLANTIC MONTHLY Nevertheless, the management problems of such large- When the contractor was a university or similar nonprofit scale projects are similar, and therefore the experience of organization, it received a management fee to cover its high-energy physics, in which such problems were first costs. Commercial companies came, to receive an "award felt, is likely to be emblematic. Big Science meant that fee" along with reimbursement for their costs, in an high-energy physics outgrew the environment single uni- amount depending on a judgment about the effective- versities could provide. The national laboratories had a ness of the management in any given year. The commer- special mission: to provide favorable environments in cial companies participated not for the money but partly which such science could continue to grow. But the new in order to contribute to the good of the country, partly to scientific theaters had vastly different requirements from provide a training ground for employees, and partly to those of just a decade or so earlier. It was not simply a benefit from the transfer of new technology. The Sandia matter of bigger equipment, along with the need for Corporation, for instance, has managed the Sandia Labo- more-extensive construction and planning. The new lab- ratories for forty years without any award fee. oratories also required things like offices for procure- The arrangement worked so well that when a group of ment, maintenance, health and safety, security, architec- European nations founded CERN, a laboratory in Gene- tural planning, and budget. They needed departments va, in 1953, its management was patterned after the ad- for photography, technical information, public informa- ministrative contracts of the Atomic Energy Commission tion, and legal counsel. The commitment to maintaining (AEC). "It is the desire of the Commission," a typical such a large organization inevitably posed a threat to contract stated at the outset, "to procure for the Govern- the freedom and flexibility of the basic research that was ment managerial skill and responsibility which will per- supposed to be carried out. Science management had mit flexibility in administrative controls and freedom become a problem-one that grew with the size of the from detailed supervision." Many of these contracts car- laboratories. ried what became known as the sweetness-and-light The solution adopted was the administrative contract. clause: "It is the intent of the Commission and the Con- Administrative contracts date from the era of the Atomic tractor that this agreement shall be carried on in a spirit of Energy Act of 1946, and the historic compromise it ef- partnership and friendly cooperation with a maximum of fected between the U.S. government and the U.S. phys- effort and common sense in achieving their common ics community. The government was trying to balance its objectives." desire for a first-class scientific program with its desire for The special character of administrative contracts can secrecy and control of the direction of nuclear-reactor best be seen by comparing them with the two most com- technology. The physics community wanted the nuclear mon types of government contracts, fixed-price and cost- reactors and particle accelerators that were soon to be- plus-fixed-fee. Suppose, for instance, that the govern- come fundamental tools of Big Science, but also wanted ment wants to buy Army hats. It draws up specifications, to work independent of the government, which was the determines which sizes and colors it wants, and then so- only conceivable source of funds. Administrative con- licits bids. If the winner of the contract, a fixed-price tracts permitted the government to participate in science one, cannot produce the specified hats on budget, it while preserving the atmosphere of university must bear the additional cost itself or renegotiate the laboratories. contract. Cost-plus-fixed-fee contracts cover situations Administrative contracts were soon written establish- where the scope of the work precludes a basis for deter- ing several national laboratories, some through the reor- mining a fixed price. Suppose the government wants a ganization of existing labs: Brookhaven National Labora- series of metals to be evaluated for use in space vehicles. tory, on Long Island, New York (the contractor was It might produce a detailed description of the tests it Associated Universities, Inc., a nonprofit group of uni- wants done, prescribing how long the process is to take, versities in the region); Berkeley Radiation Laboratory, how often it will want to receive reports, and so on, and in Berkeley, California (University of California), now invite interested parties to negotiate a contract in which called Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory; Argonne National the government agrees to pay whatever costs are incurred Laboratory, outside Chicago (University of Chicago); and plus a fixed fee. In both kinds of contracts the aim is to Oak Ridge National Laboratory (built largely by Du Pont pin the contractor down to as many specifics as possible. and now run by Martin Marietta). In addition to these ba- Both presuppose a conventional buyer-seller relationship. sic-research facilities, a string of laboratories oriented to- Administrative contracts envision an entirely different ward military projects were also set up under administra- relationship between contractee and contractor, one that tive contract. Besides Los Alamos (University of is essentially collaborative. It is taken for granted, for in- California), these included Livermore Laboratory, in stance, that the relationship will be long-term; contrac- Livermore, California (also the University of California), tors are formally reviewed after five years but do not nec- now called Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; essarily have to undergo a competitive rebidding process. and Sandia Laboratories, in Albuquerque, New Mexico Although the AEC determined its laboratories' basic di- (AT&T. through a subsidiary, the Sandia Corporation). rection, approved long-range plans, and played an impor- 84 JANUARY 1991 THE ATLANTIC MONTHLY tant role in health and safety policies, other management flow-downs came through the AEC, which wrote pro- issues were the responsibility of the contractor, who was curement regulations into its standard contracts. It was allowed maximum flexibility in deciding them. often unclear both to the laboratories and to their Wash- ington contract supervisors which of the AEC regulations The Intrusion of Bureaucracy and Politics had to be followed by the laboratories in subcontracting. The problem was exacerbated by the fact that the ulti- DMINISTRATIVE CONTRACTS WERE CREATED IN mate court of appeal for contract disputes with the gov- A the knowledge that special management meth- ernment is the General Accounting Office, which had the ods are required by the special environment in right to examine all AEC contracts and subcontracts to which basic research thrives. Yet the fruits of ba- evaluate their legality. sic research-and their obvious ability to transform soci- Over time the GAO's authority grew, as did the num- ety-have made it tempting for the government to think ber of its regulations and the penalties for breaking its that basic research can and should be managed for social rules. Inevitably contractors began to play it safe and ends, and that therefore conventional management mod- adopt the conventional contracting practices even when els and methods can and should be applied to it. Little by not technically necessary. little the government has succumbed to this temptation, AEC procurement regulations were but one source of and has come to adopt the perspective that basic-research flow-down. Around 1960 a second source appeared with facilities can be operated just like other corporate enti- the creation of a set of federal procurement regulations. ties. The result has been to erode two fundamental kinds Once again, it was frequently unclear both to the labora- of independence originally granted to contractors: the tory managers and to contract administrators which regu- relative independence from bureaucratic restrictions ap- lations were to be applied to the administrative contracts; plied to other federal agencies, and the relative indepen- once again, the fact that the GAO had the final say dis- dence from political pressures. couraged the laboratories from making aggressive and The federal government long ago established a system flexible contracting decisions. of regulations to cover the contracting and purchasing In 1975 the AEC ceased to be, and most of its func- functions of its agencies and any subcontracting carried tions were taken over by the short-lived Energy Re- out by those agencies. The reasons for doing so include search and Development Administration, which in turn the government's interest in preventing collusion, fraud, was superseded by the Department of Energy, in 1977. incompetence, and inefficiency, and its interest in pro-, The flow-down now became a torrent, thanks to a change moting certain social ends. in the character of the agency overseeing the laborato- The first administrative contracts, however, exempted ries. The AEC staff had always included a number of sci- the laboratories from such provisions. The promotion entists who engaged in basic research, and the agency's rules, salary structures, and personnel regulations of civil five commissioners had always included at least one basic service were considered inappropriate to the laboratory scientist. The professional staff of the AEC, like those of environment. Because scientists on the research frontier the Tennessee Valley Authority, the FBI, and a few other need to be able to respond quickly to new developments, agencies, was exempt from civil-service requirements, the elaborate accounting and procurement practices re- meaning that it had a great deal of flexibility in selecting quired of government agencies were also thought inap- and assigning laboratory personnel. The Department of propriate. For such reasons, the contractors who managed Energy, however, has never had a basic scientist at its the labs were bound by few of the restrictions that were helm, and is staffed largely by officials with little or no fa- standard in other government contracts, except for basic miliarity with basic research and its particular require- health and safety provisions. That is not to say that the ments. People arrived at the new agency with no aware- contractors were given carte blanche; they were account- ness of the reason why administrative contracts had been able for their work through periodic reviews whose con- established in the first place and no experience in han- clusions were made available in publicly released re- dling them, and expected that the contractors who ran ports. But the contractors were freed of the ordinary the national labs would follow the same regulations as ev- bureaucratic burdens placed on federal agencies. eryone else. That freedom did not last long. Within a few years of In 1982 an advisory panel reported to the DOE that the signing of the first administrative contracts many of "the laboratories have become grossly overburdened the boiler-plate provisions of standard government con- with detailed reporting and other paperwork require- tracts were being written into administrative contracts. ments, the utility of which frequently is not apparent and These were not unreasonable, and contractors did not which unnecessarily divert resources from their research find them burdensome. But severer restrictions were ap- and development missions"; nothing, however, was done plied, through a process known in the jargon as "flow- in response to the complaint. Similar conclusions were down," by which restrictive requirements and regula- reached in subsequent years, with similar outcomes, by a tions in one contract tend to flow into others. The first presidential commission and a second advisory panel. 86 JANUARY 1991 THE ATLANTIC MONTH The result is that the national laboratories have to di- vert an increasing portion of their resources in order to satisfy federal bureaucratic provisions from which they were meant to be exempt. It is a question not of science administration having to grow in scale with the size of scientific projects but of the breakdown of the independence that the admin- istrative-contract system was designed to safe- WIDESPREAD.S. OF IT IS ONE WHICH THE MOST guard. Three decades ago the procurement reg- ulations that bound laboratories were available in a small booklet. Today each lab has several TIME ABOUT OF the LOSS PETITIVENESS, DESTROYING BY TECHNOLOGY IN feet of "DOE orders," with additional ones arriv- ing weekly. In the past ten years alone the budget ARE departments at the national laboratories have dou- an bled-not because they need additional help in pre- THAT paring the budgets but because of the DOE's never- ESTABLISHED ETITIVENESS IN FIRST ending requests for information. Whereas agreements WE between contractors and the government aimed at a rela- tionship of "sweetness and light" forty years ago, today the relationship is described as "at arm's length." Some examples: prohib- The DOE requires laboratory directors to approve each iting such a co- request for international-travel funds, and if the requests operative venture because of certain restrictions on sub- are filed within thirty days of the start of the proposed mitting a purchase order to private industry. The trip, they must be approved by the appropriate DOE of- laboratory spent a year tinkering with the agreement to fices in Washington. This regulation is absurd. Given the make it valid, only then determining that the officials international character of contemporary science, interna- were merely playing it safe with the DOE requirements. tional conferences are necessarily one of its important Before the matter was straightened out, several major tools. Brookhaven scientists, for instance, make about projects ground to a halt. 300 foreign-travel applications a year. DOE regulations require so much reporting and follow-up that the Brook- Revitalizing Scientific Culture haven administration includes two people who work full- time to process applications. T WAS ONE INTENTION OF THE ATOMIC ENERGY ACT Following a recommendation of the 1982 advisory pan- I to keep political hands off the basic-research budget el, the DOE established a program to provide lab direc- as much as possible. One part of the act, for in- tors with seed money for promoting new initiatives. The stance, provided for the evaluation and selection of program has led to a number of important new research research proposals by independent panels of scientists. efforts that otherwise would have been delayed or aban- Another sought to insulate the selected proposals and ex- doned. Last year, however, some scientists at Lawrence pedite the budgetary approval needed from Congress by Livermore National Laboratory attempted to use the the creation of a single congressional committee to over- program to develop an idea to visit Mars using inflatable see the basic-research budget, the Joint Committee on spacecraft. The plan completely bypassed input from Atomic Energy-the only permanent joint committee NASA. Angered, Congress retaliated by eliminating the with continuing legislative responsibility ever created. new-initiatives program. Ultimately it was restored, but Many in and out of Congress were jealous of the joint with additional procedures and restrictions. Whatever one's committee's tremendous power. But throughout its ten- opinion of space exploration, the story illustrates a bu- ure the joint committee respected the independence of reaucratic tendency to punish all labs for an action at one. the laboratories in conveying to the scientific community Last year Brookhaven couldn't get its integrated cir- merely general areas of government concern, and insist- cuits made. Custom semiconductor chips are a compo- ing on the peer review of programs meant to address nent of experimental devices and instrumentation of all these concerns. sorts. For a laboratory to have no new chips is something The demise of the AEC meant the eventual dissolu- akin to a hospital's running out of penicillin. Integrated tion of the joint committee, which left the basic-research circuits are prohibitively expensive for a laboratory un- budget to be parceled out by a complex network of com- less bought jointly with other institutions. When Brook- mittees with overlapping jurisdictions. The absence of a haven joined a consortium of others to acquire chips, single committee with a continuing vision exposed the however, some officials read the DOE requirements as basic-research budget to the political whims of succes- JANUARY 1991 87 THE ATLANTIC MONTHLY sive presidential administrations. Laboratory programs War. But we may be riding on past accomplishments. established by one administration have been axed by the The 1990 Nobel in physics was won by three Americans next. for work done two decades ago, the 1989 prize by an Moreover, the parceling out of the basic-research bud- American for work done in the 1940s, the 1988 prize by get also meant a growing vulnerability to pork-barreling, three Americans for work done a quarter century ago. In which can be defined as any non-peer-reviewed and -ap- the past decade most of the physics Nobels awarded for proved project. During the lifespan of the joint commit- recent efforts have gone to Europeans. tee a few minor pork projects had made it into the bud- Recently the Department of Energy has taken some get, but the committee had aggressively kept the lid on. promising steps. In the current year's budget, for in- The lid opened, however, during the Reagan Adminis- stance, it has recognized basic research in science as a tration. In 1982 George Keyworth, the presidential sci- category in its own right, which it calls "Fortifying Foun- ence adviser, apparently at the request of certain Califor- dations"; in previous years the budget for basic research nia constituents, attempted to bypass the peer-review in science was classified under "Energy Research & De- process and insert funds for a National Center for Ad- velopment." But much more needs to be done. We pro- vanced Materials (NCAM, but soon referred to as NSCAM) pose the following steps: directly into the DOE budget as a "presidential initia- Return to the original administrative-contract idea of tive." A $140 million project, it would have been the flexibility and independence. For instance, the number largest undertaking ever in materials science. A storm of of congressional committees through which the basic-re- protest led Congress to defer the project temporarily, but search budget has to pass should be limited, and many much of it has been reinstated. accounting and procurement requirements eliminated. After that episode Congress lost the restraint with One cannot run science as a procurement activity. which it had traditionally approached the basic-research Establish a long-term science policy for basic research, budget. If presidential initiatives were possible, it was ar- identifying areas of interest and opportunity, and couple gued, so were congressional initiatives, and universities this with a two-year funding plan. The long-term policy began to lobby Congress directly for them. In 1983 Cas- would prevent the basic-research budget from fluctuat- sidy & Associates, a lobbying firm, succeeded in getting ing and make programs more effective by buffering them Congress to earmark $5 million of the DOE budget for a against the whims of Congress and of new administra- chemistry building for one of its clients, Columbia Uni- tions. A mechanism for establishing such a policy already versity. The same year the firm snagged another $5 mil- exists, in the form of national science advisory and DOE lion for a vitreous-state research laboratory at Catholic committees; their mandate should be extended. Two University, in Washington, D.C. Cassidy has become the years of funding cannot be guaranteed, since Congress lobbyist of choice for universities. It is estimated that in makes only one-year appropriations; nevertheless, plan- the four-year period from 1982 to 1986 the funds ear- ning funding according to that time frame would be an marked for pork projects bypassing the peer-review pro- improvement over the present system. Since congres- cess soared from $2 million to $236 million. sional project additions are a way of life, they will contin- Behind the proliferation of bureaucracy and politics is ue. However, they should be budgetary add-ons and not a deep misunderstanding of the scientific process, in come at the expense of ongoing programs. which basic research is viewed as essentially a corporate Reduce the number of DOE orders to laboratories, and undertaking and hence something that can be manipulat- end the bureaucratic mentality that formulates a new rule ed for profit or social ends. Basic research flourishes— following every offense. Much more effective would be and society reaps the greatest benefits-when it is to treat the individual case first. Each DOE institution- viewed not as a profit-making venture or as an instrument and, indeed, each of the national laboratories-is of social change but as an exploration of nature. To pro- unique. Each has different facilities, skills, styles, per- vide basic research with the special conditions appropri- sonnel, problems, and goals. A solution to a problem at ate to its execution amounts not to granting it a special one lab may not work and may even be harmful at an- status but simply to recognizing what it is and what are other. the conditions under which it should be done. Genuine scientific culture, like all human culture, is The hidden cost of imposing on basic research the achieved through organic growth rather than the execu- same procurement procedures, budgetary constraints, tion of a plan. One cannot suddenly decide to buy a fore- and general regulations imposed on other areas of the front scientific program and then go out and exploit it. federal bureaucracy is the sharp reduction of that flexibil- Do we demand of basic research that it be of potential so- ity which keeps basic research vital. We appear to be los- cial or military use? Do we insist that it pay for itself? Or ing our technological leadership, and if we are not care- do we try to foster in those who do science the ability to ful, we may lose our scientific leadership as well. It is follow their intuitions about how the world works? On true that the United States still holds the lion's share of the answers we give to such questions depends the future science Nobel Prizes awarded since the Second World of science in the United States. 88 JANUARY 1991 & 11912 11912.56 .56 13 84.58 1094,98 41.31 1053.67 20 20 ONE 0 2 6 5 5 16 17 14 19 19 4 И 8 21 22 (9 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN November 1990 Volume 263 Number 5 Science, Technology and the Western Miracle Close links between the growth of scientific knowledge and the rise of technology have permitted the market economies of the Western nations to achieve unprecedented prosperity by Nathan Rosenberg and L. E. Birdzell, Jr. E conomic inequality between na- unique period of long-term economic adequate understanding of how the tions is to a considerable degree growth, which has made the West con- West had achieved its affluence. Very an invention of the past two and spicuously richer and more powerful recently, the apparent determination of a half centuries. In the mid-1700s the than the rest of the world, "the West- the Soviet Union and the Eastern Euro- average inhabitant of western Europe ern miracle." pean countries to close the large gaps had a material welfare not too different To describe this phenomenon simply between their income levels and those from that of someone in China or, for as long-term economic growth fails to of the West has given fresh urgency to that matter, in ancient Greece or Rome. convey its true dimensions. Between the question: What are the sources of Only a minority of the population en- the mid-1700s and the present, per Western growth that have eluded the joyed an income appreciably in excess capita income increased tenfold. The less developed and socialist countries? of the minimum required to sustain population of Europe grew fivefold and life, and the elites of one nation had lit- that of the U.S. 80-fold. Infant mor- tle reason to envy those of another. tality declined drastically, and the av- A variety of popular explanations for the Western miracle have By about 1800, however, it became erage life span doubled. Famine was been proposed. Some attribute apparent that the minority in Europe banished, and plagues disappeared. it to imperialism, even though many of with incomes above the subsistence Food production, which in some coun- the most economically successful coun- level was growing, at least in part be- tries had occupied as much as 90 per- tries grew prosperous before resorting cause European science and technology cent of the working population, even- to imperialism and such highly affluent were progressing faster than science tually came to occupy less than 5 per- countries as Norway and Switzerland and technology elsewhere. The increase cent. Nineteenth-century urbanization never adopted imperialist policies at in the number of factories and in the marched in step with developing tech- all. Conversely, several of the most for- use of mechanically powered machin- nologies for improved sanitation, con- midable imperialist powers, such as ery came to be called the Industrial struction, communication, power dis- Spain and Portugal, rapidly deteriorat- Revolution. The process of growth and tribution and other services. Urbaniza- ed into economic stagnation. change accelerated during the 19th tion and rising incomes led to changes Other theories link wealth to the pos- century and has continued through the in health and living standards, work session of natural resources. Those re- 20th. Historians sometimes call this patterns, values and other aspects of sources do not become economic as- personal, family and community life. sets, however, until the knowledge and One might suppose that economic means of using them become available. NATHAN ROSENBERG and L.E. BIRD- historians would have long since set- The pre-Columbian peoples of North ZELL, JR., have previously examined the tled on the reasons for the Western America had about the same resources subject of the Western miracle in How miracle, but the phenomenon has not as the present inhabitants do. Japan, the West Grew Rich. Rosenberg is an received the scrutiny it deserves. Con- which has far fewer natural resources economist at Stanford University and sequently, when the less developed than Indonesia, Mexico or the Soviet the author of several books about tech- countries of the Third World turned to Union, has been far more successful in nology and economic growth. Birdzell is the West 40 years ago for help in rais- achieving growth. The modern histo- an attorney and legal scholar in Rhode ing their per capita incomes, much of ries of the city-states of Hong Kong and Island. the advice they received reflected an in- Singapore-not to mention that of Ven- 42 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN November 1990 ice, which had only a swamp for its been created primarily by people work- nomic sphere, during the 20th centu- natural resources-belie the natural re- ing in industry, with little contribution ry its advance has become inseparable sources explanation. from people whom we would call sci- from that of industrial technology and These hypotheses have had an unfor- entists today. The mechanical skill and Western economies. tunate effect on government policies in ingenuity that produced the precision the developing countries. By focusing machinery and instruments of 18th- T 0 explain the Western econom- on factors of questionable relevance, and 19th-century factories and labora- ic miracle and its relation to they have distracted attention from tories came more from the crafts of science, we must first consider institutional changes that might have clock making and lens grinding than some of the reasons for the great suc- provided avenues to growth, especially from science. cess of Western science-an achieve- ones that might have given access to Since about 1880, however, industri- ment with its own claims to the title superior technologies. al technology has come to owe a more "miracle." One reason is that Western Western technology developed pri- substantial debt to scientific sources science has made a better organized at- marily within the economic sphere, and outside industry. With the success of tack on the secrets of nature and used it has often been regarded as merely efforts to fit natural phenomena to the- greater resources in the assault than an outgrowth of economic needs and oretical structures inaccessible without science in other cultures. institutions. Science, in contrast, had special training, industrial engineers For a long time after the printing more complicated origins and could with that training have become trans- press was introduced in the late 15th hardly be dismissed as an automatic mitters and users of scientific knowl- century, scientific research remained response to economic conditions. For a edge and methods. More than that, dur- chiefly a decentralized-or even indi- long time, science contributed little to ing the past century industry has cre- vidualized-activity, in which isolat- economic growth and industrial tech- ated research laboratories capable of ed scientists occasionally communicat- nology. When Karl Marx was writing in extending the theoretical structures of ed their discoveries to one another in the mid-19th century, the "colossal science. Although Western science orig- print or in longhand. Early Western sci- productive forces" he saw at work had inated as an institution outside the eco- ence was clearly not a localized phe- SOHO MANUFACTORY near Birmingham, England, produced Society of Birmingham, a group of businessmen, inventors parts for steam engines in the 18th century. The partners and scientists. Throughout the Western world, similar asso- in the enterprise, James Watt (the father of efficient steam ciations between scientists and entrepreneurs fostered sci- engines) and Matthew Boulton, were members of the Lunar entific, technological and economic progress simultaneously. SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN November 1990 43 nomenon: its venues ranged from the These societies, and the journals Prince Henry the Navigator of Portu- Poland of Copernicus to the Denmark they published, both disseminated new gal, it came into common practice only of Tycho Brahe to the northern Italy of research and screened it for admission in the early 19th century. In London Galileo to the Bohemia of Kepler to the to the scientific canon. Their discus- Sir Joseph Banks, Count Rumford and France of Descartes and Lavoisier to sions set an agenda for the time and some other fellows of the Royal Society the England of Boyle and Newton. served as a pointer to new research formed the Royal Institution in 1799 to The early achievements of Western that might bring recognition and ac- serve as a laboratory where scientists science centered on astronomy. The claim from other scientists. What they could work together and teach. Michael development of a significant scientif- did not offer was a means of earning Faraday, working a century after New- ic community in Europe with interests a living. In 1695, for example, Isaac ton, found a full career at the Royal In- beyond astronomy dates from the 17th Newton faced limited academic ad- stitution, where he discovered electro- century. In 1660 the Royal Society of vancement at Cambridge because he magnetic induction. London for Improving Natural Knowl- had not taken holy orders. To reward Similar institutions sprang up else- edge (almost always called simply him for his scientific contributions where. In 1795 the French established the Royal Society) was formed to dis- with a livelihood, the British govern- the École Polytechnique. In the U.S., cuss reports from the many individuals ment had to name Newton to a post Yale University established the Shef- who were by then conducting scientific outside the scientific community, as field scientific school in 1847, and the investigations. Many other such societ- warden of the Mint. Massachusetts Institute of Technolo- ies formed in the 17th and 18th cen- gy opened in 1865. Science thus grad- turies, setting up a network of scien- lthough the idea of bringing sci- ually developed its own research and tists in Europe who exchanged informa- A entists together for directed re- teaching institutions, and successful tion not only with one another but also search in an institute equipped researchers could be rewarded with with a distant American named Ben- with laboratory instruments and a suit- staff appointments and promotions. jamin Franklin, whose experiments had able library was tried successfully in By the early 19th century, Western shown that lightning was electricity. the first half of the 15th century by science had divided into specialized departments: mathematics, astronomy, physics, chemistry, geology, botany, zo- ology and the medical studies of anat- omy and physiology. Some of them, such as physics, were divided into still finer specialties. Western science had become an insti- tution with a broad general goal (to ex- plain natural phenomena), a division of labor into specialized departments with their own subsidiary goals, an in- formation network that kept its mem- bers informed of progress, a peer re- view system for evaluating new work and settling conflicts, formal centers for teaching and research, and a set of rewards for work rated favorably by the profession. A fundamental factor holding the en- terprise together was its adoption of a single standard of scientific truth based on observation, reason, experi- ment and replicability. The standard enabled scientists to make use of find- ings from other laboratories, even from those in other disciplines. It also per- mitted artisans, merchants, manufac- turers and the rest of the working pop- ulation to apply scientific discoveries to everyday labors. Its organization and scope are, of course, not the only reasons Western science flourished. It also fell heir to the vast intellectual estate of earlier civili- zations: a phonetic alphabet, an Arabic (or possibly Indian) counting system that included zero as a number, mathe- matics that included geometry and al- gebra, and religions that freed nature ILLUSTRIOUS SCIENTISTS throughout Europe contributed to the growth of basic of animism. But the West was no idle knowledge that spurred technological and economic progress. Among them were heir, for by the beginning of the 18th (clockwise from upper left) Nicolaus Copernicus of Poland, Johannes Kepler of century it had added some intellectual Bohemia, Galileo Galilei of northern Italy and Sir Isaac Newton of Great Britain. monuments of its own. 44 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN November 1990 VENETIAN SENATORS peer at the moons of Jupiter through a the 17th century, Europe began to have a sizable scientific telescope under the direction of Galileo. Astronomy was one community interested in physics, medical science and other of the first interests of Western science, but before the end of fields. Science slowly became a less individualized endeavor. Calculus, for example, was clearly soils. Concrete was known to the an- entists were so engaged that they ac- a landmark contribution. Another, and cient Romans, but it was little used as a complished so much. perhaps the most fundamental, West- building material until late in the 19th ern contribution was the development century, when chemists experimentally T hird World and Eastern European of the scientific method, which from investigated its suitability for structur- countries trail the West economi- the time of Galileo included a refined al applications by systematically vary- cally, despite having access to the form of systematic experimentation. ing the mix of its ingredients. Within a world's stock of scientific knowledge. Hellenistic, Islamic and Chinese scien- few decades, concrete, including rein- Indeed, the Soviet Union has made sub- tists and inventors understood the use forced concrete, became the most wide- stantial contributions to that stock. of experiments for testing and confirm- ly used (by weight) of Western building What those countries seem to lack is ing ideas, but they do not seem to have materials. the West's capacity to translate scien- achieved anything like Galileo's inclined Perhaps the most important point tific knowledge into economic produc- plane experiments, in which conditions about Western science and technol- tivity-a capacity that depends on the were systematically varied as a way of ogy is that they were linked at all. In individual and institutional character- exploring how nature works. Nor did other civilizations, economically useful istics of a nation. In many ways, tech- they anticipate Newton's thought exper- technologies depended minimally, if at nology, which is intermediate between iments, in which idealized phenomena all, on the wisdom of astronomers (or scientific knowledge and economic ac- (for example, motion in a vacuum) are astrologers), philosophers, mathemati- tivity, grows out of local needs and in- used to explain real phenomena. cians and other sages. These thinkers stitutions, and its economically success- Without systematic experimentation, had little to offer to farmers, sailors, ful transfer involves more than a teach- progress can be slow and fitful in sci- smiths and other artisans who had de- ing process. ence and in technology. Improvements veloped their technologies within their One clear requirement for economic in the design of the plow, for example, craft traditions. In fact, the thinkers growth is the ability to shape produc- were inventions of great significance often- confined themselves to an ab- tive technology to local needs. Whatev- in predominantly agricultural societies, stract world of ideas as an escape from er the origins of a technology, the peo- but they took place hundreds of years the transient and imperfect, real world. ple and institutions using it must be apart. Before the age of science, no one For Western scientists, however, there able to understand it, experiment with seems to have tried to improve plow was no escape. Their empirical meth- it and evaluate the economic repercus- designs by comparing the effectiveness ods required them to engage the real sions of its use. of different blade designs in various world. It is precisely because the sci- Japan, usually regarded as the first 48 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN November 1990 non-Western country to match the eco- labor-intensive ways. Textile mills, for criticized Americans for wasting nat- example, added extra work shifts and ural resources. U.S. agricultural tech- nomic achievement of the West, offers an instructive example of institutions expended more labor on maintaining niques did frequently lead to rapid de- and repairing machinery to prolong its clines in soil fertility, but more land appropriately applying technologies. life. When the Japanese constructed a was always available, so the losses were The first stages of Japanese moderni- zation, beginning in the late 1860s, em- railway system, they used more than supportable: Americans invented wood- phasized agricultural improvements. two and a half times as many workers working machinery that appeared ex- The technologies initially borrowed per mile of track as the Americans did. tremely wasteful to the British. At the time, however, it made good economic from North America were capital inten- sive and tended to maximize output arallels between the development sense in a country so richly endowed per worker. The Japanese soon real- P of industry in Japan and in the with forests. ized, however, that techniques suitable U.S., where it began several dec- Late in the 19th century, private busi- for the land-abundant U.S. were inap- ades earlier, are often overlooked. Like ness firms in Germany and the U.S. propriate in an economy that had am- Japan, the U.S. at first borrowed tech- founded industrial research laborato- ple labor but was seriously short of nology, primarily from England. Indus- ries for developing new products and arable land. They then shifted to other trialization began in New England, New production methods. In 1856 the En- technologies, borrowed this time pri- York, Pennsylvania and Delaware-re- glish chemist William Henry Perkin dis- marily from western Europe, that were gions where, as in Japan, literacy and covered aniline purple, the first of the formal education were already valued. industrially useful coal-tar derivative more labor intensive and that maxi- mized the productivity of the scarcest The U.S. also had to adapt its borrowed dyes, and the next year he established Japanese resource-land. technologies to the country's special a factory for its production. This work In manufacturing, too, Japan adapt- circumstances, as Japan did. marked the beginning of both a major Because the U.S. had abundant natu- branch of chemistry and a major chem- ed Western technology to its labor-rich, ral resources, however, its adaptations ical industry. Perkin went on to make capital-poor economy. Japanese facto- involved making the industrial tech- further contributions, but no one indi- ries often purchased secondhand rath- er than new machinery. Wherever pos- nologies more resource intensive and vidual could ring all the changes on the sible, they substituted labor for capital less labor intensive. Europeans visiting chemistry of coal-tar derivatives. That and used foreign technologies in more the U.S. in the mid-19th century often accomplishment required institutional ROYAL SOCIETY OF LONDON for Improving Natural Knowl- for advancing the communication of scientific information. edge, founded in 1660, was one of the earliest associations Such societies evaluated discoveries and disseminated them. 50 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN November 1990 invention. Only after German chemical Nevertheless, the economies' open- population to trade its manufactured manufacturers established several re- ended diffusion of authority to start products for meat from Argentina, Aus- search laboratories for systematic, or- innovative projects would be unwork- tralia and the U.S. More recently the in- ganized investigations did an impor- able if decision makers' hopes of high creased size of international markets tant industry arise around the coal-tar rewards were not tempered by their ex- has made it economical for manufac- dyes between 1890 and 1914. posure to the risk of severe losses. Pub- turers to furnish products in greater The accomplishments of the German lic attention commonly goes to the oc- variety, more closely adapted to the laboratories inspired the establishment casionally sensational rewards of inno- local needs of particular countries or of the General Electric Company's re- vation, but the prudent investor keeps groups of customers. This trend can be search laboratory in the U.S. When GE in mind the institutional role of the observed in markets as diverse as auto- was formed in 1892, it relied at first on bankruptcy courts in Western innova- mobiles, clothing, processed foods and Charles Steinmetz, a talented political tion: burying the failures. electronics. refugee from Germany, as its resident In the West, although innovative con- In recent years the importance of in- inventor. In 1900, however, after the tributions often originate with long-es- ternational trade has been highlighted new German laboratories produced su- tablished firms, many of the most im- by the differences between the growth perior materials for electric-lamp fila- portant inventions have been commer- performances of countries that have ments, GE engaged Willis R. Whitney, cialized by new firms formed for that actively competed in international mar- a professor of chemistry at the Mas- purpose or by completely redeployed kets and of countries that have adopt- sachusetts Institute of Technology, to old firms. The role of new firms in in- ed policies of import substitution (pro- organize a formal laboratory. During novation is important not only for its tectionism) or closely regulated trade, the first half of the 20th century, the direct contribution but for its implicit as in the socialist countries. There is number of research laboratories affili- threat to older firms, which might not no consensus about why active par- ated with private firms multiplied, cre- otherwise feel impelled to take the ticipation in international trade seems ating major new institutions that sig- risks of innovation. Yet freedom to or- so closely associated with economic nificantly contributed to the growth of ganize new firms is narrowly restricted growth. Possible explanations include basic scientific knowledge as well as to in socialist countries and severely ham- some combination of scale economies, technology. pered in some less developed coun- keener competitive incentives, econo- tries, where permission from scores of mies of specialization and abstention he best road to technological government agencies may be required from counterproductive impositions on T progress is often poorly marked. to launch a business enterprise. the part of governments of successful The great virtue of private busi- In addition to corporate research and exporting countries. nesses in market economies is that development, Western countries have In Western manufacturing, a particu- they become independent sources of developed several other sources of eco- larly interesting example of specializa- decision making for exploring the fron- nomically useful knowledge during the tion has been the rise of manufacturers tiers of technology. No single individ- 20th century, especially in areas where who make only component parts and ual or institution has the authority to markets have not provided adequate subassemblies, particularly for the au- veto an exploratory undertaking unilat- incentives. Government funding has tomobile, electric and electronics indus- erally. The importance of diffusing de- become particularly important for re- tries. Brand name manufacturers often cision making is illustrated by the suc- search that has grown fearfully ex- specialize in the design, the market- cess of the personal computer, which is pensive, as it has in particle physics. ing and sometimes the assembly of fin- said to have been turned down by the Governments also support research in ished products, with the component principal U.S. computer manufactur- such fields as public health, preventive parts made by subcontractors. Techno- er. Similarly, the export of Japanese medicine, the treatment of rare diseas- logical advances conceived by Ameri- automobiles to the U.S. was initiated es and safety-fields in which the goals can, German or Japanese engineers can by a Japanese company against the ad- are universally desired but there is lit- therefore create employment through vice of the Japanese government. To tle prospect of reward for private firms. subcontracted manufacturing not only be sure, the government was right, Government-sponsored research is con- at home but also in Mexico, South Ko- because the first cars exported were ducted in both government and private rea, Taiwan, Singapore and elsewhere. designed for Japanese use and per- laboratories. To an increasing extent Modern subcontracting networks are formed poorly in the hands of early since World War II, universities also also international trading networks, U.S. customers. The exporter nonethe- have become centers of tax-supported with operations that depend critically less learned what was required for the research activities, technological as well on transportation, communication and U.S. market and took the necessary as scientific. data-processing facilities that were un- corrective action. It was soon followed imaginable in 1800. profitably by other companies. E conomic growth in the West has Because trading networks in market Given the scientific, technological and been marked by an increase in economies do not have a central source commercial uncertainties of innovation, trade and in the sizes of markets. of authority, their power for efficient- an efficient economy has to strike a bal- Part of the increase in trade was tied ly organizing activities went unnoticed ance between undertaking only the saf- to technological improvements in ships until long after the Western miracle est of projects and pursuing every idea and to the introduction of railroads- had begun. In its lack of central au- that comes along, too often persisting innovations that lowered the costs and thority, the remarkably successful or- long after realistic hope of success has risks of transportation. As trade in ganization of Western economies par- vanished. With their rewards and pen- regional specialties became possible, alleled that of Western science, which alties, market economies have so far manufacturers could reach markets also lacked a supreme authority and been most successful in striking the re- large enough to justify investing in yet became an effective enterprise co- quired balance and transforming scien- mass-production technologies. The in- ordinating the work of thousands of tific and technological knowledge into troduction of refrigerated ships, for specialized scientists and a wide vari- useful goods and services. example, enabled a growing European ety of research institutions. Decentral- 52 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN November 1990 ization is especially relevant to econom- not begin to be widely appreciated until ment, trade unions, consumers, inves- ic growth, but Western societies have Adam Smith studied them in the latter tors or any other groups or individu- also had a comparable degree of auton- part of the 18th century. The most visi- als. In Western history, however, the in- omy from political control in art, litera- ble organizations of those times were troduction of market trading resulted ture, music, religion and other impor- governments, armies and the Catholic from the efforts of merchants operat- tant social spheres. Church-all hierarchies. For many ob- ing within the framework of a peculiar- servers, the very idea of organization ly Western institution, the trading and T he basic control problem of any implied a hierarchy of authority, and its manufacturing firm. What seems to be economic system is to make and absence was equated with chaos. People peculiarly Western about these institu- enforce a changing flow of inter- failed to see that through decentralized tions is that they have often competed dependent decisions about production mechanisms, Western economies were through innovations in products, man- and consumption that will optimize hu- achieving new patterns of specializa- ufacturing and distribution. The suc- man welfare. Beginning no later than tion and a size and efficiency of organi- cess of Western economies in assimi- the 12th century, unregulated market zation without historical precedent. lating Western technology is not a con- trading was gradually insinuated into By the time the great German soci- sequence of unregulated markets alone western European economies tradition- ologist Max Weber wrote his pioneer- but of markets in which there are pro- ally controlled by governments, guilds ing work on organization in the early ductive firms that can gain much by and the Catholic Church. The centuries- 20th century, the organizing power of commercializing new ideas more quick- long process was partly one of creating markets was widely recognized among ly than their rivals can. new branches of trade (including inter- social scientists. Yet bureaucracy was As we have already observed, inno- national trade) outside the jurisdiction looked on by some as an entirely via- vation is a risky way to compete, and C of authorities and partly one of out- ble alternative that seemed to offer a firms that live or perish by the uncer- right evasion. Traditionally, Western au- possible return to the long-lost world tain irregularities of innovation's re- thorities had overtly regulated prices of "just" prices and "just" wages that wards and losses are very different in- and wages to keep them fair according socialists and many others found at- stitutions from administrative agencies to inevitably subjective criteria. tractive. The comparative performance of government. The point is especially The slow growth of unregulated mar- of socialist and Western economies significant today for the Soviet Union ket trading gradually reorganized more over the past seven decades, culminat- and Eastern Europe, which, having out- and more of these economies by trans- ing in the recent upheavals in the Sovi- lawed the types of entities through muting prices and wages into ethically et Union and Eastern Europe, suggests which the West conducted commercial neutral devices for keeping supply and that the judgment of equivalence over- innovation, now confront an awesome demand synchronized, with consequen- looked something important. need for rapid innovation in prod- ces for the organization and develop- Market trading, considered by itself, ucts, manufacturing and organization ment of Western economies that did can be conducted by agents of govern- if they are to narrow the economic gap TRANSCONTINENTAL RAILROAD was completed at Promon- ogy fueled economic growth by opening and expanding mar- tory Point, Utah, in 1869. Advances in transportation technol- kets, in turn allowing greater manufacturing specialization. SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN November 1990 53 more active part in economic affairs than Adam Smith might have pre- scribed. This handful included Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong and Singa- pore-some of the great economic suc- cess stories of this century. No one can guarantee that other countries would do equally well with a similar policy of imitation. But as we survey 40 years of experience with so- cialist and populist regimes in Eastern Europe, Asia, Africa and South Ameri- ca, we believe that it requires a victory of faith over experience to see much chance of success without imitation. Science, no longer solely Western, is pushing back the frontiers of knowl- edge at what seems an accelerating pace. Because knowledge creates eco- nomic resources and because knowl- edge generally grows at an exponential rate, future advances in human wel- fare can be at least as striking as those of the past 200 years. Science can also play a much larger role in dealing with such deep-rooted problems as envi- ronmental pollution and population growth but only in the context of more effective institutions and personal in- centives. Disclosures from Eastern Eu- rope indicate that industrial pollution there has been worse than in the West. Given the strong prospects for the continued growth of international trade and markets, further Western growth may continue to widen the econom- ic gap between countries that follow the West's example and those that do not. Economic gaps are already creat- ing severe political and social pressures in the developing countries, especially since some of them have demonstrated WILLIS R. WHITNEY, the first director of the General Electric Research Laboratory that the gaps can be closed. Unless (left), and Irving Langmuir, the Nobel prize-winning industrial chemist (center), these nations take effective action, the demonstrate a high-vacuum apparatus to Guglielmo Marconi, the inventor of radio consequences could be even less satis- (right). Corporate laboratories closely linked technology to scientific knowledge. factory than those of the past 40 years. between themselves and the Western cause of economic growth or growth FURTHER READING countries. Although recognition of the the cause of technological advance. An UNBOUND PROMETHEUS: TECHNOLOGI- need for greater reliance on markets expansion in the size of markets can CAL CHANGE AND INDUSTRIAL DEVELOP- has been increasing, there has so far make a more efficient division of labor MENT IN WESTERN EUROPE FROM 1750 been less awareness of the critical need and specialization possible without in- TO THE PRESENT. David Landes. Cam- to allow Soviet and Eastern Europe- troducing any appreciable technologi- bridge University Press, 1969. an firms to make innovations in prod- cal novelties. The interplay of people, PHASES OF CAPITALIST DEVELOPMENT. ucts, production methods and organi- economic institutions, growing mar- Angus Maddison. Oxford University zation and to reap the resulting bene- kets and technology is the key. Press, 1982. fits and losses. At the end of World War II, many INSIDE THE BLACK Box: TECHNOLOGY scholars and policymakers believed AND ECONOMICS. Nathan Rosenberg. Cambridge University Press, 1983. n seeking explanations for the West- that the future of all nations lay with I How THE WEST GREW RICH: THE Eco- ern miracle, we have proposed that socialism-or at least with some oth- NOMIC TRANSFORMATION OF THE IN- long-term economic expansion and er form of planned economy. The old- DUSTRIAL WORLD. Nathan Rosenberg technological expansion go together, in er Western market institutions were and L. E. Birdzell, Jr. Basic Books, 1986. that neither has occurred for very long additionally tainted by associations THE EUROPEAN MIRACLE: ENVIRONMENTS, without the other. But although tech- with colonialism. Consequently, only a ECONOMIES, AND GEOPOLITICS IN THE handful of developing countries then HISTORY OF EUROPE AND ASIA. Second nological and economic expansion are chose to imitate the Western nations, Edition. Edited by E. L. Jones. Cam- interwoven and inseparable, no sim- bridge University Press, 1987. ple law of nature makes technology the and even their governments took a 54 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN November 1990 THE WHITE HOUSE Office of the Press Secretary For Immediate Release February 2, 1990 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY ACCOMPLISHMENTS AND INITIATIVES OF THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION FACT SHEET The President announced today the appointment of the members of the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST). This distinguished panel of scientists, engineers and industry leaders will provide high-level advice directly to the President on a wide range of important issues concerning science and technology. Advances in science and technology are a key to increased economic competitiveness and improving our quality of life. The President's action today caps a year of vigorous activity by the Administration to advance science and technology issues on a broad front. The three broad areas of activity are summarized below: I. Strengthening Federal Science and Technology Policy II. Enhancing Federal Research and Development Activities III. Encouraging Increased Private Sector Research and Development Investment I. Strengthening Federal Science and Technology Policy Establishing the National Space Council. -- The President issued an Executive Order on April 20, 1989, establishing the National Space Council, chaired by the Vice President. The Space Council provides advice and assistance to the President on space policy and strategy and monitors and coordinates the implementation of space policy among the civil, national security and commercial space sectors. Establishing the Administration's Council on Competitiveness. -- The President established the Council on Competitiveness, chaired by the Vice President, to oversee regulatory and other competitiveness issues, such as reform of product - more - 3 The President has also proposed to allocate $12 billion for basic research, an increase of $1 billion, or 8 percent, over FY 1990. Basic research is an essential investment in the nation's scientific and technological future, including its future scientists and engineers. B. Science and Technology Education The President has moved aggressively to address the shortcomings in the nation's science and technology education enterprise. He has set goals for the nation's schools and students in science and math, and the FY 1991 budget will provide over $1 billion in direct spending in five agencies for science, mathematics and engineering education. National Science Foundation (NSF) -- NSF will allocate $463 million in FY 1991, a 30 percent increase over FY 1990, for a wide variety of education activities to improve the quality of teachers and students, the numbers of students choosing science, math, or engineering careers, and the numbers staying in those fields, particularly those in traditionally under- represented groups. Department of Education. -- The Department will continue to build on its strong relationships with State educational entities. The FY 1991 budget proposes $230 million, an increase of 69 percent, for the Dwight D. Eisenhower Mathematics and Science program, which provides funds to States to implement improved programs for teaching math and science. In addition, five million is requested for the new National Science Scholars program to recognize outstanding high school students by providing fellowship support for them to study in the fields of mathematics and science in college. The Department will also launch an initiative under its Upward Bound program to provide academic assistance and encouragement to help disadvantaged students pursue study in mathematics and science. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) -- NASA will allocate $51 million in FY 1991, an increase of 21 percent, for education activities including the "Spacemobile" program, teacher and student workshops and research experiences at NASA laboratories, and special efforts to increase minority participation in science and engineering. - more - 5 budget will expand an important environmental, safety, and health initiative in the Antarctic to ensure that this world scientific resource is preserved and that the safety and health of scientists working on the continent are assured. D. Understanding and Exploring Space The President is committed to a continuing, active and exciting American presence in space -- indeed, to America's leadership in space science and exploration. Overall, the FY 1991 budget proposes $15.2 billion for NASA, an increase of $2.9 billion, or 24 percent. NASA's budget has increased by almost 40 percent over FY 1989. O Space Shuttle. -- The current fleet of three Space Shuttles are the world's most versatile launch vehicles. In FY 1989, the Space Shuttle fleet completed four successful flights. The Space Shuttle Columbia recently accomplished the spectacular retrieval of the Long Duration Exposure Facility. The FY 1991 budget proposes $4.2 billion, an increase of 22 percent, for Space Shuttle production and operations. This funding will allow for a safe build-up to 10 Shuttle flights, the delivery of the fourth Shuttle, Endeavor, and enhancements such as the Advanced Solid Rocket Motor and the Extended Duration Orbiter capability. Space Station Freedom. -- Space Station Freedom is the largest international R&D project ever undertaken. In FY 1989, the program underwent a reevaluation that has resulted in a more achievable program and funding profile. The FY 1991 budget continues the President's commitment to the Space Station by proposing a total of $2.6 billion, an increase of 36 percent. This will provide for the critical transition from design to actual fabrication. Moon/Mars Exploration. -- On July 20, 1989, the President proposed that America undertake an ambitious mission of manned exploration of the solar system. This journey will begin with the first step in the FY 1991 budget towards this new goal -- nearly $1.3 billion, an increase of 47 percent -- to support robotic science missions and to develop the pacing and innovative technologies that will be needed. of particular interest is the continued commitment of the Administration to - more - 7 President announced U.S. support for a worldwide phaseout of chloroflurocarbon (CFC) production to the extent safe substitutes are available. In 1990, the U.S. will host the Plenary Session of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in February; a meeting of the world's economic, scientific, and environmental officials to discuss global environmental issues in the Spring; and the first negotiation session on the Framework Convention on Climate Change in late Fall. F. Environment Clean Air Act. -- The President demonstrated his commitment to clean air by transmitting Clean Air Act Amendments to Congress in July 1989. The President's plan allows for both environmental protection and economic development and is based on a commitment to using the best science available. In support of his Clean Air proposals, the FY 1991 air research budget of the Environmental Protection Agency will increase by $8 million to a total of $95 million. G. The Superconducting Super Collider and High Energy Physics The Superconducting Super Collider (SSC) -- The SSC will provide an enormous advance in the capability to explore the secrets of matter and energy. Over the past year, the Department of Energy has established the SSC laboratory at a site near Dallas, Texas. The new laboratory team is conducting a thorough reevaluation of all technical systems with particular attention to magnet design and technical performance of the accelerator. In FY 1989, research continued on the design and testing of magnets. Approximately 8,000 magnets will be used in the 53-mile SSC tunnel. In addition, during FY 1989, DOE continued work on the site-specific Environmental Impact Statement (EIS). The EIS is necessary before DOE makes a decision on the "footprint" of the SSC and starts acquiring land for the project. High Energy and Nuclear Physics. -- The President supports a robust program of research in the areas of high-energy and nuclear physics, which offer the prospects of increasing our knowledge of the basic constituents of matter. Last year, - more - 9 will spur further advances, as will initiatives that improve payoffs on investments. The FY 1991 budget proposes $3.6 billion for biotechnology R&D, an increase of 6 percent over 1990. Agricultural Research Initiative. -- American farmers are among the most productive in the world. New techniques in genetics, molecular and cell biology have led to innovative approaches that will enhance our ability to produce food, while addressing concerns of safety, nutrition and the environment. The FY 1991 budget will launch a National Research Initiative to more than double the size of USDA's competitive grants program. This will expand funds for plant and animal biotechnology to $50 million, with a particular emphasis on mapping the genome of important crop plants. Like the Human Genome Initiative, this effort will create new opportunities to explore the genetic potential of plants. I. Energy National Energy Strategy. -- The President has directed Secretary of Energy Watkins to develop a National Energy Strategy to guide the Administration's energy policies and programs. The Department has held two rounds of public hearings and plans to issue a draft document in April. A key element of the strategy will be a blueprint for future energy R&D programs and activities. Clean Coal Technology. -- The Administration is committed to a $2.5 billion program to demonstrate emerging clean coal technologies. This program will provide additional cost-effective alternatives for reducing acid rain. Solar/Renewables and Energy Conservation R&D. -- The President is committed to assisting the development of emerging technologies that offer the potential to provide new sources of energy as well as new ways to use it more efficiently, while protecting the environment. On January 26, 1990, the Department of Energy announced a new 11-point initiative in this area. The FY 1991 budget provides an increase of 8 percent in funding for conservation, solar and other renewable energy technology R&D. - more - 11 emerging technology, an increase of almost 400 percent. These efforts are being carried out by both the Department of Transportation (about $6 million) and the Army Corps of Engineers (almost $4 million) Each agency is pursuing a public- private partnership designed to facilitate private development of an operational maglev system in the U.S. K. National Security DOD Technology Base. -- The President supports a strong technology base to develop options for future weapons systems and to guard against technological surprise by adversaries. The FY 1991 budget includes $3.4 billion for the technology base (basic and applied research) funded through the Department of Defense. This will support programs ranging from basic research in the physical sciences to development of high- speed semiconductors for use in advanced communications systems and computers. Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) -- The SDI program remains a high priority of the President. The FY 1991 budget requests $4.5 billion for SDI, an increase of $0.9 billion over 1990. The SDI program is developing options for strategic defenses based on advanced technologies. Particular emphasis is being placed on promising new concepts such as the "Brilliant Pebbles" small space-based interceptor missiles. III. Encouraging Increased Private Sector R&D Investment Private sector investment accounts for about 50 percent of the total national investment in R&D. In addition, the private sector is the principal performer for R&D and is ultimately responsible for transforming R&D results into useful new products and processes. The Administration has taken a number of steps to encourage increased private sector R&D investment and technological innovation. Encouraging Savings and Investment. -- The President is proposing the Family Savings Account to stimulate increased savings that provide the resources needed for investments in the future. In addition, the President is proposing to lower the tax on capital gains in order to promote increased entrepreneurial activity and investment. - more - NO DOUBT ABOUT IT: OU'RE A FAR-SIGHTED EXECUTIVE. You believe in R&D. While you know that the phenomenally successful break- THE MORE YOU RESEARCH, throughs-instant photography, xerogra- phy, the transistor-come only as fre- quently as Halley's Comet, you invest in THE BETTER YOU DO research and development anyway. Even little advances help, you reason, and, well, it just seems a smart thing to do. Still, when the crunch comes, you always ask yourself: Is all that money be- ing spent by those maver- icks in the lab really worth it? Does it actually make sense to spare them and their toys when you're cutting back on marketing and laying off in production? A statistical analysis that BUSINESS WEEK commissioned of historical data from its R&D Scoreboards suggests the answer is an unquali- fied "Yes." The study, done to improve the for- mat for the Scoreboard, demonstrated beyond any doubt that the companies with the strongest performance in their markets are also the PAYS TOTAL INDUSTRY SPENDING: $59.4 Billion CHANGE FROM 1987: +11% R&D R&D AS A PERCENT OF SALES 3.4% CHANGE FROM 1987: None R&D ASA PERCENT 39.4% -2.3 PERCE IN OF PRETAX. PROFITS: CHANGE FROM 1987: POINTS INDUSTRIES THAT INCREASED R&D INDUSTRIES THAT INCREASED R&D THE MOST: THE LEAST: 1. HONBANK FINANCIAL 27% 1. METALS & MINING -2% 1988 2. HEALTH CARE 19 2. HOUSING & CONSTRUCTION 0 3. OFFICE EQUIP. & COMPUTERS 18 3. AEROSPACE 1 4. ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONICS 13 4. CONGLOMERATES 2 5. AUTOMOTIVE 12 5. FOOD 3 THE TOP COMPANIES IN 1988 R&D SPENDING The parentheses after the company names show the industry group in which the company appears in the Scoreboard tables that start on page 180. In Total Dollars (millions) As a Percent of Sales In Dollars Per Employee 1. GENERAL MOTORS (2a) $4,754 1. AMGEN (10a) 89.5% 1. AMGEN (10a) $112,269 2. IBM (16c) 4,419 2. CENTOCOR (10a) 61.3 2. CENTOCOR (10a) 78,658. STATISTICS 3. FORD MOTOR (2a) 2,930 3. ALZA (10a) 39.7 3. GENENTECH (10a) 64,037 4. AT&T (19) 2,572 4. GENENTECH (10a) 34.6 4. CHIPS & TECHNOLOGIES (7d) 60,828 5. DU PONT (3) 1,319 5. CONTINUUM (16g) 29.0 5. WEITEK (16f) 45,717 6. DIGITAL EQUIPMENT (16c) 1,307 6. EVANS & SUTHERLAND (16g) 28.6 6. ALZA (10a) 45,578 7. GENERAL ELECTRIC (4) 1,155 7. HOGAN SYSTEMS (16g) 27.2 7. BMC SOFTWARE (16g) 42,622 8. EASTMAN KODAK (12) 1,147 8. BMC SOFTWARE (16g) 26.9 8. BOLAR (10a) 41,273 9. HEWLETT-PACKARD (16c) 1,019 9. CYPRESS (7d) 24.2 9. ALLIANT COMPUTER (16c) 36,638 10. UNITED TECHNOLOGIES (1) 932 10. CULLINET SOFTWARE (16g) 24.2 10. ASHTON-TATE (16g) 36,208 DATA: STANDARD & POOR'S COMPUSTAT SERVICES INC ones that spend the most, pound for pound, on pany performance (profit margins, return on as- R&D. So, for the first time, the tables rank the sets, and sales per employee) and two measures companies within their industry subgroups by a of R&D spending (per dollar of sales and per key variable for indicating future corporate employee). To approximate the real-world lag be- performance: R&D spending per employee. tween R&D outlays and results, he was asked to Although earlier studies have suggested a tie compare company performance in 1987 with aver- between R&D spending and performance, proba- age R&D spending from 1983 through 1986. bly none was based on as broad a sample as is represented by the BUSINESS WEEK R&D Score- HE RESULT FOR ONE PAIR OF THESE VARI- board. This year's tables, which begin on page 180, include 897 companies in 40 industry groups and subgroups. The grand total of R&D spending T ables was eye-popping: "The rank correla- tion between R&D per employee and sales per employee is off the scale," states in 1988 by all the companies covered was almost Reithner in his report. The statistical sig- $59.4 billion, an 11% increase over the compara- nificance that he calculated for the correla- ble 1987 number. Even adjusted for the inflation tion between the two sets of rankings was in nonresidential capital investments, the in- well beyond 99.9%. Although he found no signifi- crease was more than 6%. cant correlation between R&D spending per em- The statistical analysis that led to the new ployee and return on assets, the correlation with ranking system was done by mathematician and corporate profit margins was also undeniable: a computer consultant Robert Reithner, based in statistical significance in excess of 99.5%. Hoboken, N.J. Working with data provided by With that, the decision to include rankings in Standard & Poor's Compustat Services Inc., the Scoreboard came easily. In addition to plac- Reithner was asked to gauge what, if any, corre- ing the companies in each subgroup by their lation he found between three measures of com- 1988 R&D spending per employee, the tables also BUSINESS WEEK 178 INNOVATION 1989 THE rank them by average R&D spending per employee for the five-year period The following companies not only spent a lot on R&D per employee but also a lot more than their com- from 1984 through 1988. And along petitors. To arrive at this list of the companies most committed to research, BUSINESS WEEK first split off with the customary listings of R&D the three companies with the greatest R&D spending per employee in each of the 40 industry sub- as a percent of profits and as a per- groups covered by the Scoreboard. We then calculated the percentage by which their spending per cent of sales, the tables now give employee exceeded the composite figure for the group. We did this for 1988 spending and for spend- ing from 1984 through 1988. These percentages determined the rankings. The parentheses after each company's sales per employee. each company's name indicate the subgroup in which that company appears in the Scoreboard tables. S WITH ANY SET OF STATIS- Based On Spending In 1988 And For The Last Five Years tics, it's important to keep some limitations in mind. The 1. DEKALB GENETICS (8) 1, 152% 1. DEKALB GENETICS (8) 626% first is that you can't com- 2. PIONEER HI-BRED (8) 1,088 2. CHIPS & TECHNOLOGIES (7d) 586 pare R&D spending per em- 3. LAM RESEARCH (13c) 776 3. PIONEER HI-BRED (8) 534 ployee of companies in differ- ent industries, or even 4. AMGEN (10a) 729 4. LAM RESEARCH (13c) 464 different subgroups within a given in- 5. CHIPS & TECHNOLOGIES (7d) 715 5. APPLIED MATERIALS (13c) 449 dustry. This can be especially mis- 6. APPLIED MATERIALS (13c) 664 6. AMGEN (10a) 448 leading when you are comparing a 7. GRADCO SYSTEMS (16a) 560 company in a high-tech industry with 7. GALOOB (LEWIS) TOYS (12) 403 one in a mature old-line business. The 8. FILENET (16a) 545 8. WEITEK (16f) 388 $36,638 in R&D that Alliant Computer 9. WEITEK (16f) 522 9. DIGITAL MICROWAVE (7b) 354 Systems Corp. spent per employee in 10. QUANTUM (16e) 495 10. TORO (5a) 344 1988 actually tells you little when stacked against the $2,878 per em- 11. CENTOCOR (10a) 481 11. GRADCO SYSTEMS (16a) 333 ployee spent by fabric maker Concord 12. SILICON VALLEY (13c) 469 12. CENTOCOR (10a) 327 Fabrics Inc. It's only after you notice 13. FRANKLIN COMPUTER (16a) 431 13. EARTH TECHNOLOGY (18) 297 that Concord spends fives times the average for its group, VS. less than 14. SEI (15) 393 14. SILICON VALLEY (13c) 292 3½ times for Alliant, that you can 15. CONCORD FABRICS (13d) 385 15. FILENET (16a) 287 appreciate how aggressive Concord is 16. GENENTECH (10a) 373 16. VARCO (9b) 286 about research. Relative to the envi- 17. VARCO (9b) 367 ronment in which it operates, Concord 17. ALTERA (7d) 275 actually outspends Alliant. 18. SYMBOLICS (16f) 350 18. VIPONT (5b) 259 That's why the tables on this page 19. PLAYTEX (5c) 316 19. ACUSON (10b) 232 list some of the companies that 20. TORO (5a) 315 spend significantly more on R&D per 20. PHEONIX TECHNOLOGIES (16h) 228 employee than the other companies 21. DIGITAL MICROWAVE (7b) 306 21. FRANKLIN COMPUTER (16a) 224 in their respective subgroups. In the- 22. ARITECH (18) 302 22. 3M (13a) 220 ory, these numbers should be compa- 23. DST SYSTEMS (15) 299 23. VARITRONIC (13a) 217 rable across industry groups. Even these, however, must be read in per- 24. LTX (7c) 293 24. GENENTECH (10a) 209 spective. DeKalb Genetics Corp., for 25. CALGON CARBON (18) 291 25. POLAROID (12) 207 example, leads all 897 companies in DATA: STANDARD & POOR'S COMPUSTAT SERVICES INC. the Scoreboard by this measure. One reason is that, although DeKalb is grouped with food companies, it also has a large bioengineer- there simply is no way to establish statistically ing operation-where especially heavy research that it's R&D spending that results in greater sales per employee-and not the reverse. Al- spending is typical. But because DeKalb is one of the leading suppliers of hybrid corn seed, it's though BUSINESS WEEK built a lag into the com- parisons when it had the historical data ana- ranked as a food company in the government's standard industrial classifications. lyzed, this ad hoc refinement to the exercise is, in itself, hardly conclusive. "Statistics can nev- Another caveat to keep in mind when inter- er establish causality," notes Reithner. "You preting the data: Usually, a company's ranking for R&D spending per employee in 1988 corre- have to bring your own theory to the figures to lates quite well with its ranking for the aver- do that." He offers this analogy: If you charted age spent per employee for 1984 through the use of air conditioning vs. temperature, you 1988-but not always. Triton Energy Corp., for would no doubt see that the hotter it gets, the example, leads the Oil, Gas & Coal group with more that people turn on their cooling units. $5,945 spent per employee in 1988. In contrast, But that correlation, no matter how close, Chevron Corp.'s ratio of $3,875 placed it eighth doesn't tell you which caused which. Common sense does. out of 14. But Chevron ranks No. 1 in spending for the past five years, while Triton ranks And what does common sense suggest about ninth. What's more, Chevron leads the group in R&D spending per employee vs. sales per em- five-year spending by a wider margin than Tri- ployee or profit margins? Which came first? ton leads those in the one-year grouping. Is Reithner doesn't hesitate: "From my observa- Triton on its way to becoming the group's new tions of high-tech companies, it seems pretty P&D star? Or was this year's ratio just a fluke? clear to me that R&D drives sales and profits- The most critical caution, however, is that not the other way around." By Anthony J. Parisi in New York BUSINESS WEEK 179 INNOVATION 1989 A Conversation with Bush has said he will sit in on some of the council's meetings. What are the most important issues on D. Allan Bromley OSTP's agenda? Fresh back from the "education summit" at which the President and the nation's 51 state governors spent 2 days setting goals for America's schools, Bromley put education The President's science adviser is determined to bring science and first on his list. "The decisions to set nation- technology into a broad range of national policy issues al performance goals and to give the class- room back to the teacher are terribly impor- tant," said Bromley, adding that "in a great ALL SCIENCE is not created equal. many cases, precollege education in the past That's the way D. Allan Bromley sees decade has been literally perpetrating a fraud the world and that's what he says will on the younger generation" by turning out define his role as science adviser to students who cannot add and cannot read. George Bush. "Quite frankly, some Bromley sees a shortage of "technicians" research is better than others. If the as one of the country's major challenges in President of the United States is go- education. "We still lead the world in basic ing to use scientific information for research, but we fall apart when it comes to policy-making, I have to help him manufacturing. We focus on revolutionary judge how reliable it is," Bromley developments, where the Japanese focus on declared in a recent interview with evolutionary improvements. With even a Science. "My job is to be an honest small advance in manufacturing techniques, broker." they can capture the market." Why? "Japan Just 2 months after taking over as produces bachelor's graduates who are good head of the White House Office of at synthesizing materials, for instance; peo- Science and Technology Policy ple very good in a narrow range. We're not (OSTP), Bromley has settled into his educating enough of those people." job with the air of a man who is intent Ken Heinen Bromley looks to the private sector to play on making his mark on Washington. a greater role in educating the work force. In stark contrast to William Graham, his nearly invisible predecessor in the Allan Bromley: "Science is not an afterthought," in "We can't just rely on the school system," he the Bush White House. observes, and suggests that industry take a Reagan Administration, Bromley is lesson from the military, which has long taking a visible role as President George As assistant to the President, Bromley has experience in training people "who are not Bush's man for science. a seat on à number of White House bodies, notably motivated." For instance, "The mili- "The President has really bent over back- including the economic policy council, the tary uses computers extensively and effec- wards to be supportive," said Bromley, who domestic policy council, the space council, tively to teach people routine things. That was named an "assistant to the President." and the competitiveness council. "It means expertise should be exploited." In title-conscious Washington, that ranking that I routinely sit in on a full range of In recent years, OSTP's greatest activity elevates the status of the OSTP directorship meetings," says Bromley, "and expect to has been in military affairs. Former science and puts Bromley on a par with the National bring science to the table before policies are adviser George Keyworth, for example, de- Security Adviser. During a long talk in his otherwise worked out. In this White House, voted enormous effort in promoting the office in the Old Executive Office Building, science is not an afterthought." much criticized Star Wars defense system. Bromley also said he has good relations with Clearly, Bromley is in his element. The Will the Bromley OSTP play a major role in White House Chief of Staff John Sununu. 63-year-old professor from Yale has spent military affairs? "Certainly, OSTP will be Bromley, who was not named science years preparing for this role as an author of active in certain areas but we'll have to be adviser until the Administration had been in science policy papers, as president of the selective if we're not to be swamped by office for 4 months, was initially concerned AAAS, and as a member of the White military issues." Bromley's first substantive that he would have a hard time fitting into a House science council since 1981-an insti- meeting with Defense Secretary Richard White House staff that was already in place. tution that will be reincarnated as the Presi- Cheney is scheduled for this week. But he reports that, from his point of view, dent's Council of Advisers on Science and What else is on the OSTP agenda? "The this has not been a problem. Technology (PCAST). A list of candidates global environment," says Bromley, who has Bromley, who describes himself as both for the council was agreed upon before discussed this issue personally with Presi- physicist and engineer, is comfortable with Bromley officially took office but, as yet, no dent Bush. "The environment has moved to the engineer in Sununu, who was a profes- one has been named. This, Bromley savs, is the world stage politically. Science and tech- sor at Tufts before moving into politics. because of generic conflict-of-interest issues nology input are critical to policy here. This "Sununu has an instinct for asking the right that were raised recently regarding scientists is an area where we really need solid infor- question," Bromley observes. "He has an on federal advisory panels (7 July, P. 20 mation on the assumptions behind various engineer's ability to approximate and to Science). "We've spent a lot of time talking environmental initiatives-a place where rapidly calculate orders of magnitude-to with our lawyers about the rules governing OSTP's role in evaluating the 'reliability' of ask, 'Is this reasonable?' It is an important advisers and think we have things worked data will be vital." quality in policy-making where you don't out. I expect we'll be able to announce Bromley cites drugs-"There is a lot we always need a scientist's precision." PCAST appointments very soon." President don't know about addiction"-and AIDS as 13 OCTOBER 1989 NEWS & COMMENT 203 saence obvious areas of concern to his office, but he also expects OSTP to play a role in what he Plan for Genome Centers sees as one of the greatest crises of the next decade-life-extending technology. "We are rapidly approaching the time when we are Sparks a Controversy going to have to withhold technology from some of the dying," Bromley told Science. "And we don't even have a fully developed NIH is planning to set up targeted research centers to map and value system for even beginning to figure out how to do that ethically." This, Bromley sequence the genome-a move that is setting off alarms among argues, is an area in which basic science and biologists technology must "make common cause" with the "social sciences, with humanists, and with religion." San Diego groups (especially if yours is not among Before taking office Bromley recognized IN JULY, the genome office at the National them). that if OSTP is going to be in a position to Institutes of Health took its first, halting The complaints seem unlikely to deter influence national policy, let alone take the step into the era of "big" biology. It an- institutions from lining up for a piece of the lead, he would have to have staff and re- nounced that it would create special labs or pie. Some 20 teams showed up at the recent sources that surpassed those of his predeces- centers, each with perhaps 25 investigators, NIH workshop for grant applicants, sug- sors. In that he appears to be successful. to puruse the task of mapping and sequenc- gesting that competition for the first three Bromley has turned to senior hands to staff ing the human genome. What that means is grants for next year will be fierce. three of the four "associate director" posi- that a good share of the genome project's Watson cites both Cold Spring Harbor tions he has created. budget-eventually half, predicts James Laboratory, where he remains as director, To fill the biomedical post-a long ne- Watson, the project's director-won't go to and MIT's Whitehead Institute as evidence glected area in OSTP-Bromley has recruit- investigator-initiated science but to these that centers can work. But he acknowledges ed James B. Wyngaarden, former director of new centers. that some units set up to fight the war on the National Institutes of Health. J. Thomas That's enough to send shivers throughout Ratchford, associate executive officer of the much of the biological community. AAAS for the past dozen years, is slated to "Jim Watson is trying to change the social be Bromley's right-hand man for policy and fabric of science. It's World War II and international affairs. And the word around directed science all over again," grumbled town is that Berkeley engineer Eugene one participant at a recent NIH workshop Wong will be nominated as associate direc- on centers. tor for physical sciences and engineering. Not so, responds Watson, who says he is That leaves just one top post vacant and simply trying to get the job done. The "job" Bromley acknowledges that he is having a is to map the chromosomes within 5 years tough time finding a seasoned researcher/ and to decipher the full nucleotide sequence, administrator from industry to head activi- all 3 billion base pairs, within 15 years-and ties related to industrial technology. "The at a total cost of no more than $3 billion. "If problem is not comparatively low federal we go along the way NIH usually does, it salaries," Bromley says. "People who want could easily take 100 years to get the se- to perform government service can live with quence," said Watson, who outlined NIH's that. But the new financial disclosure and plans in San Diego last week at the Human divestiture requirements make it very hard Genome 1 meeting sponsored by Science. to attract the best people. It will just take Moreover, the cost of doing business as time," he says. usual would be prohibitive. "We really owe Margot Bennett Meanwhile, Bromley is busy going about it to the scientific community to keep the his business of getting to know everyone he cost down," he said. James Watson: "We all know how fraudulent can in Washington and letting them know "People want to do this with a cottage most centers are." he wants to hear from them. A series of industry approach," Watson told Science, breakfast meetings with members of Con- "but I don't think it will work. I'm not cancer have poor reputations. With his char- gress has gotten under way, with help from trying to take away ROls [investigator- acteristic bluntness, he told the workshop the "science" members of the Senate-Al initiated grants] but to create something attendees: "We all know how fraudulent Gore, Jay Rockefeller, John Danforth, Jeff new." most centers are." Bingafnan, and others. Bromley has met Many scientists aren't impressed. Since Norton Zinder of Rockefeller University, with congressional staff members and he NIH issued its request for applications, who chairs the NIH genome advisory meets regularly with Richard Darman, di- Watson and his staff have been inundated board, matched Watson's outspokenness: rector of the Office of Management and with complaints. Some investigators oppose The issue, he told Science, is how to avoid Budget, so that "OSTP is part of the budget centers outright. Others agree with Watson creating a monster-and how to kill it if you process from the start of the cycle." that something different is needed for the do. "In the past, centers were like were- All in all, one of Bromley's main tasks genome project, but don't believe that these wolves-you couldn't kill them. And a lot of right now is "building bridges," and he is centers, at least as originally proposed, are it. them go bad." going about it with a will. And there is lots of grumbling about wheth- That makes decisions on how to structure BARBARA J. CULLITON er it is wise to invest all that money in a few these centers and ensure accountability ex- 204 SCIENCE, VOL. 246 ANALYSIS BUSINESS BANKREFORM HITTING THE WALL IN DETROIT There are at least 130,000 reasons Even good news from Detroit cannot hide the fact that 1991 is shaping up as a why the Bush administration's dismal year for American auto companies. In a rare surprise, Chrysler reported that sweeping plan to reform U.S. bank- it netted $31 million on $7.6 billion in sales in the fourth quarter of 1990. But bad ing, unveiled last week, will run into days lie ahead. Chrysler said sales of its RICHARD SHEINWALD- trouble when it hits Capitol Hill lat- very profitable minivans plunged 60 per- er this month. America's indepen- cent in January. Worse still, Consumer dent insurance agents, who number Reports warned that an automatic trans- about that many, will battle Presi- mission used in many minivans is a lem- dent Bush's proposal to let national on. The article, says Chairman Lee Ia- banks compete with agents by sell- cocca, "could drive us out of business." ing insurance products in states that Standard & Poor's has added injury to allow it. The agents make up just insult by downgrading Chrysler bonds to one of the numerous interest junk status. The good news from Gener- groups-including many small al Motors- its European operations banks, some securities firms, pen- outsold Ford for the first time ever-was Mixed signals. Chrysler's Lee Iacocca sion funds and even bank regula- overshadowed by the word that GM will tors-opposed to portions of the cut its white-collar staff by 15,000 and its dividend by 47 percent. Ford and Chrysler plan, which would be banking's have retained their dividends, but analysts question the wisdom of payouts to broadest overhaul in half a century. stockholders when no profits are likely in the months ahead. -Despite the objections, Congress could still pass many provisions of the proposal after what is expected THE DOLLAR TAKES A DIVE to be up to a year of haggling over The precipitous drop of the American dollar against major foreign currencies is the details. Problem loans and not necessarily bad news for the recession-wracked economy. The record lows the mounting bank failures have high- dollar hit last week against the German mark and the Swiss franc and its lost ground lighted the need to reform deposit to the Japanese yen promised to give domestic exports a boost. "American insurance, attract new capital into manufacturers are now hypercompetitive compared to those in Europe," declares banking and create a smaller, stron- David Rolley, senior financial economist at DRI/McGraw-Hill. Ordinarily, an ger industry. That should make it anemic dollar would feed inflation by increasing the cost of imports. But because of easier to dismantle anachronistic the recession, foreign companies are either unable or unwilling to boost prices on barriers to full interstate banking. cars, TVs and other items. Overall, says Shafiqul Islam, senior fellow at the Council Lingering opposition to allowing af- on Foreign Relations, "this is not a bad time for the currency to fall." filiations among banks, securities firms and commercial companies MONEY CLIP might also be squelched. To avoid a repeat of the S&L fiasco, however, 120 Congress will demand safeguards to 115 prevent banks from using insured America is getting 110 Manufacturing in- deposits to fund risky nonbanking less production from dustries with great- its workers, but the 105 ventures. Lawmakers also want to est productivity in- move fast to replenish the strained manufacturing sec- 100 creases in 1989: Bank Insurance Fund and forestall a tor is holding up 95 Metal-cutting ma- well. PRODUCTIVITY ARM BUSINESS chine tools: 25.8% taxpayer bailout of failing banks. 90 Rice milling: 21.7% For all the carping, many bankers Change in manufac- (1982=100) 85 Greatest decreases: think the Bush plan could go a long turing output: Copper rolling: way toward curing much of what ails 1990: + 0.8% 0 '89 90 -5.5% '86 '87 '88 the troubled industry. "I'm not go- 1982: -6.5% '84 '85 '82 '83 Wood office furni- ing to sit here until the perfect bill Overall (nonfarm) out- 1980 '81 ture; lawn equip- is available 10 years from now, when put, 1990: + 0.2% ment: -5.2% each there's not going to be any Ameri- USN&WR-Basic data: U.S. Dept. of Labor can bank left," says Thomas Theo- Manufacturing Manufacturing output as a percent- PRODUCTIVITY PLUNGE bald, chairman of Chicago-based productivity: age of GNP: The percentage decline in 1980, U.S.: -0.7% Continental Bank. 1990: 23.3 output per employee hour Japan: +6.9% 1982: 20.0 (post- mirrors the 1982 recession. 1989, U.S.: + 3.3% BY SUSAN DENTZER World War II low) Japan: +5.8% 12 U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 18, 1991 where dispensing without prescription. BUSINESS " tablets for oral administration. Each tablet Tablets also contain. as inactive ingredients: corn love Insure / stearate, and sodium bicarbonate. PHOTOFEST the what of symptoms associated with seasonal allergic pruntus, and lacrimation. than patients with a known hypersensitivity to terfena- / - cirrhosis, hepatitis). or on ketoconazole or extensive metabolism in the liver. Patients with having conditions leading to QT prolongation (e.g. xyndrome) may experience QT prolongation and/or the incommended dose. The effect of terfenadine in - which alter the QT interval is not known. These consulty under patients The on events macrolide may antibiotics, be related to including altered discholyte taking Seldane should receive the following imbalance. or both. the Antihistamines are prescribed to reduce allergic instructions showld be questioned about pregnancy or lactation before ssing the drug should be used in pregnancy or lacta- and 1 justines Heldane the only potential as needed risk and to fetus not to or exceed baby. should to take also dry be place, instructed away from to store heat this or medication direct sun- a cool, exists that concurrent ketoconazole or STATE STATE metabolism of terfenadine. troleandomycin is not recom- be approached with caution. in the recommended human daily dose, in mice for 18 ******* of fertility: Oral doses of terfenadine, The revealed no evidence of tumorigenicity. Micro- Everybody knows their name. A scene from residual-rich "Cheers" - with tertenadine have revealed no evidence of studies III rats showed no effects on male or female times the significant human reduction daily dose. in At implants 63 times and the at I June small reduced implants and increased postimplanta- but THE NETWORK-STUDIO RERUN RUNAROUND which were judged to be secondary to maternal It is one of the longest running soaps-but you won't see it on television. It has was no evidence of animal teratogenicity. Repro- stormed in rats at doses 63 times and 125 times been playing at the Federal Communications Commission for more than 20 years. revealed throughout decreased pregnancy pup weight and gain lactation. and survival There CONNECTION studies potential in pregnant benefit justifies women. the Seldane potential should risk The plot pits the three major TV networks against the film studios in a battle over the who gets to cash in on the bonanzas from syndication of hit series. (Rerun rights for - weight gain and survival in rats given doses 63 is not recommended for nursing women. The "The Bill Cosby Show," for example, brought a record $600 million.) The dispute dose throughout pregnancy and lactation. only during lactation are not known, and could determine how much free vs. fee programming will appear on television. well controlled Seldane studies in in children women during below the lactation. age of of 12 The networks-largely cut out of the resale action since 1970, when the so-called financial interest and syndication rules were passed-have tried to get these rules / including both who controlled received Seldane, and uncontrolled provides patients incidence for periods of a few repealed. The production companies claim that giving the networks the right to days up to six studies was 60 mg twice daily, but in a small low as 20 mg twice a day, or as high as 600 make, own and resell shows would kill off Hollywood's independent producers. 3 waing the recommended dose of 60 mg b.i.d., the Last week the FCC, in effect, cut the baby in half in a 3 to 2 ruling that left both - - ements placebo in patients (See receiving Table below.) Seldane was similar sides crying foul and threatening to ask for a rehearing. The networks got more- 1 EVENTS REPORTED IN CLINICAL TRIALS liberal syndication rights, but they were hedged with new restrictions, which still left Persent of Patients Reporting the studios sitting pretty. Fox Broadcasting emerged the only clear-cut winner; the Controlled Studies* All Clinical Studies** Schlene Placebo Control Seldane Placebo - N-685 N=626* N=2462 N=1478 FCC said the fledgling fourth network was free to produce, broadcast and syndicate shows with almost none of the limitations constraining CBS, NBC and ABC. 8.1 18.1 8.5 8.2 74 3.8 15.8 11.2 09 5.8 4.5 3.0 1.1 1.0 1.5 1.2 MONEY CLIP 02 0.6 1.7 1.0 06 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 3.0 2.7 7.6 5.4 INFLATION 7% U.S. CATCHING 18 3.5 4.8 3.1 GNP U.S. 6 Fourth quarter 02 0.5 2.5 1.7 03 0.5 3.2 1.6 UP WITH 5 1990: 0.8 0.2 0.7 0.4 RIVALS GERMANY JAPAN GERMANY 4 $1.00 = 131 yen 10 17 1.4 1.6 2.0 JAPAN Projected 1991 3 $1.00 = 1.5 marks FLAVINOLED STUDIES" was usually 7-14 DAYS. long-term interest U.S. 2 Projected fourth STUDIES was up to 6 months. (291 patients). d-Chlorpheniramine (189 1 quarter 1991: - rates: acherse effects have been received which torsades de pointes, ventricu- U.S.A.: 9.2% 0 $1.00 = 145 yen / and syncope. In controlled clinical $1.00 = 1.75 marks ininitis. at doses of 60 mg b.i.d. small Germany: 8.8% -1 Changes of this magnitude in a normal However, in another study (N=20 Japan: 6.8% -2 Projected 1991 un- in QTc of 10% (range 4% to +30%) without clinical signs or symptoms. Trade balance, in employment rates: reported in clinical trials (See Table), 1991 (projected) lower incidence in clinical trials and/or U.S. billions: 1990 Germany: 8.3% Signature that warrant listing as possibly (hair loss or thin- 1990 actual Figures are U.S.A.: 7.5% <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< STATES <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< (including depression, dysmenorrhea). galac- Germany: $51.9 annual rates. are adjusted for inflation. Japan: 2.2% paresthesia. photosensitivity, seiz- USN&WR Basic data: Merrill Lynch important tremor. urinary frequency. and visual Japan: $35.8 Average amount - in case. moderate transamin- U.S.A.: -$94.9 Comparisons of projected 1991 mid. or one workers save for ev- - receiving Seldane. Mild elevations were - Marketing experiences include isolated 1991 projected GNP and inflation rates show - / / and hepatitis. In most cases available ery $1.00 earned: Japan: $27.1 the U.S. improving its position Japan: 16€ - / and its treatment appears in Full Germany: $25.0 in the international arena. Germany: 10c U.S.A.: -$25.5 U.S.A.: 5c - with and children 12 years and older. SELAE 301/A1895 U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, APRIL 22, 1991 6131B1 CALENDAR U.S. NEWS Rain man On October 8, the artist Christo will coordinate the popping ONE JUDGE AND A SPLIT SENATE open of $26 million worth of giant umbrellas-1,340 blue ones 75 miles Crucial Senate votes have a way of approximating public opinion, and the judgment north of Tokyo and 1,760 yellow on Clarence Thomas's Supreme Court nomination seems headed that way: narrow ones 70 miles north of Los Angeles. approval. Spirited debate over the black conservative's credentials and philosophy resulted last week in a 7-to-7 tie on the Senate The 28-foot-wide umbrellas, which will remain up for three weeks, are Judiciary Committee. Republicans hailed the positioned in topographically similar judge's rise from poverty while Democrats castigat- JUDGE THOMAS, REST ed his refusal to state his views on abortion and ASSURED THAT NO PRIOR landscapes to evoke the parallels be- OPINION OF YOU HAS BEEN other legal issues. His fate on the FORMED BY THIS BORK, tween the two countries. Senate floor lies with Southern I MEAN, BOARD! Financial times On October 15, the International Monetary Fund and Democrats, who provided the the World Bank will kick off their margin against Robert Bork in 1987. Louisiana's John Breaux an- annual meeting in Bangkok. The main topics for the 3,000 delegates nounced support for Thomas, but Alabama's Howell Heflin came from 159 countries will range from world economic forecasts to loans out against him, citing a "lack of for the Soviet Union. conviction and instability." Lucky lotto From October 14 to 20, Most senators agree on one thing: Court confirmations have be- the U.S. State Department will hold a mail-in lottery to award 40,000 come unseemly spectacles. Wyo- SUPREME COURT 9/91 permanent visas to natives of 34 ming Republican Alan Simpson suggested the panel meet privately with future countries, mostly in Europe. As part nominees to avoid acrimony that would create a "free fall into mediocrity." of an effort to counteract bias from Democrat Joseph Biden, chairman of the Judiciary Committee, agreed that the a 1965 immigration law, Irish appli- "cycle of politicization and skepticism" should be broken. He added that George cants will get 16,000 of the visas. Bush, when he chooses judges, could help by pursuing a "course of moderation." MAYBE MONEY DOES HELP The mountain of money the nation spent on education in the '80s, the White House has long argued, accomplished very little. But an analysis by government researchers paints a different picture. The unpublished study by the Sandia Na- tional Laboratories in Albuquerque, N.M., found that dropout rates declined in DATABASE the past decade and are at an all-time low. Scores on the Scholastic Aptitude Test are down, the study adds, only because a wider range of students are finishing high Immigrants expected to participate school and taking the college admission test. When Sandia researchers briefed in the lottery: 5 million Republican senators on the report last week, Deputy Secretary of Education David Kearns showed up to argue that the study was flawed. Visas granted European immigrants in 1965: 117,090; in 1990: 44,839 Immigration visas issued in 1980: IN POVERTY: 34 MILLION AMERICANS 331,345; in 1990: 437,768 Economists knew the recession has been rough. Still, the magnitude of the Applicants on immigration waiting Census Bureau numbers came as a surprise. The government's first close-up look lists in 1981: 1.1 million; at the nation's economic slump showed 34 million Americans living in poverty last in 1990: 2.4 million year, 2.1 million more than in 1989. For the Countries with most people on wait- first time in seven years, the poverty rate Median family income ing list: Philippines, Mexico, India increased, from 12.8 percent of the popula- $40,000 Country granted the most visas in tion to 13.5 percent. One in 5 children lived $35,353 Inflation- 1990: Philippines (44,112); the fewest: below the official poverty line, now set at adjusted 35,000 San Marino (0), Liechtenstein and $13,359 for a family of four. In addition, dollars Rwanda (1), Monaco (2) mìddle-income white families saw their earnings fall. Republicans insisted that the $33,346 30,000 Applications for asylum in 1990: Current 73,637; granted: 5,672; numbers reflected only a temporary slow- dollars down. But with the hardships lasting well 25,000 backlog: 97,288 Illegal aliens caught in 1990: 1.1 into this year, 1991's poverty data are likely $21,023 to be dismal, too. Those statistics will come 0 million; deportations in 1989: 859,521 1980 '81 82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90' out before Election Day 1992. USN&WR_Basic data: U.S. Census Bureau 12 REBECCA PAJAK-USN&WR ILLUSTRATION: JENNIFER HEWITSON FOR USN&WR: CARNYM ORLANDO SENTINEL U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT. OCTOBER 7. 1991 EYE ON THE '90s BUSINESS BUSINESS LEADERS EXPECT MORE LAYOFFS It comes as little surprise that various "No one is saying the economy is healthy," President Bush's chief economic enterprises have been affected by adviser, Michael Boskin, told business leaders, "but we believe it is improving." He Clarence Thomas's hearings. Here- was speaking at a closed-door session of the Business Council called to discuss ways with, an informal look at who's up of bolstering the economy. Participants were skeptical; the council put out a and who's down: statement saying there was no real feeling that recovery was happening. What it X-rated videos A survey of 30 anticipated was still more layoffs, particularly in the service sector. video stores in the Washington, BUSH Another grim indicator came last week from Citicorp. SAYS D.C., area showed signs of interest THE Reporting record losses in the works of porn star Long RECESSION IS of $885 million for the Dong Silver, although store spokes- OVER!.. third quarter, the na- men think the inquiries came mostly tion's largest banking from reporters. company estimated that, Sexual harassment training videos ...PASS in addition to the 5,000 peo- Big winners. Ten distributors of the JNEMPLOYMENT IT DOWN... ple it has laid off this year, videos say interest has shot up. BNA thousands more stood to lose Communications of Rockville, Md., their jobs. And in a survey of reports that inquiries for its videos 7,000 business owners across jumped 400 percent. the country, the U.S. Cham- Lawyers Attorneys across the ber of Commerce indicated country who specialize in harassment that most hiring freezes re- cases have seen noticeable increases main solid disappointing news in calls about the subject. Incidentally, for the 3 million Americans who men file complaints have exhausted their unemployment insurance benefits this year. SENUAL against women in a The president nonetheless cited economic recovery as one reason for vetoing the tiny fraction - ap- Democrats' bill to extend unemployment benefits beyond 26 weeks, the second such proximately 2 per- bill he has rejected. It would be a budgetbuster, he said. After failing last week to cent - of sexual YOU override the veto, the Democrats started work on a third bill and warned that the harassment cases. veto would be an election issue. Mindful of the government estimate that 3.4 million Yale Law School more jobless will use up their benefits next year, Republicans sought last week to Although it is too introduce their own benefits-extension bill in the Senate. It aims at shorter soon to see effects on extensions, with revenue-raising measures to meet the cost. Not pleased, the applications, the Democrats blocked its introduction and labeled it "a political sham." school has received a score of calls about the MONEY CLIP hearings. Some callers were trying to reach Clarence Thomas, one called to complain that PEOPLE a student had appeared on televi- HONEYMOON SINGLE- FAMILY AGED 25 TO 34 prices to rise 8.8% in sion in a wrinkled shirt and two ENDING FOR HOUSING the next 12 months to were incoherent. HOME BUYERS STARTS 913,000 42.2 mil. 39.7 mil. average $165,300, "The Exorcist" Calls to 13 Wash- THE PROBLEM and 30-year mort- ington, D.C., area bookstores turned Despite a favorable 663,000 gage rates to go from up exactly one request for the novel. market, few people Up 6% 8.8% now to as much It is not known whether that call are buying homes. Up 38% as 9.75%. was from Orrin Hatch's office. Construction of new THE DREAM? Coca-Cola Americans may be ones housing 1993 By 2000, owning a starts - dropped 1982 eyeing their cola cans a little more 2.2% last month. In 1982 1993 (proj.) home will cost 29% of closely, but the effect of Anita Hill's (proj.) household income August, one-family testimony on sales is likely to be less than today's 31% starts outpaced sales data: DRI/McGraw-Hill negligible, according to numerous but still higher than of new one-family marketing experts. "This is a haz- the 24% in 1970. With homes by 352,000. ard," says a Coke spokesman, Who will buy? There may not new-home prices ex- TOMORROW "when you're virtually ubiquitous." be enough first-time home pected to rise by 63%, The market won't stay buyers to soak up the supply of it could be now or nev- ripe for long. Analysts BY AMY BERNSTEIN houses, much less afford them. er for home buyers expect new-home hunting bargains. 20 ILLUSTRATION: JACK DESROCHER FOR USN&WR: CARTOON: WALT HANDELSMAN TIMES PICAYUNE U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, OCTOBER 28, 1991 CALENDAR U.S. NEWS Dallas revisited On November 14, THE VOTERS DEFINE A RIGHT TO DIE nearly 28 years after the event, con- spiracy buffs will meet in Dallas for Medical ethicists and lawmakers have failed to ease the dilemmas surrounding a symposium on John F. Kennedy's whether and when to apply lifesaving technology. So now citizens in Washington assassination. Six books on the mur- State, in a referendum, must decide for themselves whether they can ask a doctor to der are due out soon, including assist in their deaths. If Initia- "Three Days at Parkland," by a doc- tive 119 passes, Washington tor who attended both Kennedy and would become the first place in Lee Harvey Oswald. In December, the world to legalize active eu- "JFK," Oliver Stone's already con- thanasia. (The practice is toler- NEXT...! troversial movie, will be released. ated but illegal in Holland: arti- DR. KEVORKIAN Final exit Congress hopes to finish cle, Page 28.) If that happens, this year's business before Thanks- the United States could face a FINAL OPINION giving. It must still deal with bank debate every bit as divisive as reform and new unemployment- the abortion controversy. insurance legislation. Concern about the subject shows up in the still Gifted children On November 6, in brisk sales of the Hemlock Society suicide man- Kansas City, the National Associa- ual, "Final Exit," and the deaths late last month tion for Gifted Children will meet. of two Michigan women who used suicide ma- Programs include "Parents of Gifted chines created by "Dr. Death," Jack Kevorkian. Children: Friend or Foe?" But passage of Initiative 119, opponents warn, could lead to an even uglier situation: subtle pressure, imposed by doctors and families, on the infirm to ask to die rather than use up scarce health-care funds. GOING OVERBOARD ON-LINE Computer networks are becoming the nation's soapboxes, with people across the country speaking their minds electronically. But now there are lively debates about DATABASE how free expression should be in the computer age. Prodigy, one of the nation's two largest computer networks, is facing criticism for trying to stop messages that it deems Children in the United States who offensive. Recently, CompuServe, the other major network, was sued for libel by a are gifted: 2.3 million rival computer company for carrying allegedly defamatory messages about one of the States with mandated special rival's products. Last week, in what legal experts call a precedent-setting case, a education programs federal judge likened computer networks to public libraries, ruling that CompuServe for gifted kids: 26 is not liable for information running on its system. Despite the decision, Gerard Van der Leun, a lobbyist for computer networks, predicts that disputes aired on the Average SAT score of college- nation's growing network systems are likely to increase, causing more libel suits. bound high-school seniors: 896 Minimum score of 13-year-olds HOW STEALTHY IS STEALTHY ENOUGH? entering Johns Hopkins Center for Talented Youth: 930 Congress has all but killed the B-2 Stealth bomber. For the second year in a row, Defense Department authorization legislation includes no money for new B-2s, High-achieving teens who rate their teachers' dedication which could very likely mean that the U.S. fleet will consist of only 15 Stealth as excellent: 8% bombers instead of the 75 that the Pentagon wants. Still, House and Senate committees have approved nearly $2 billion for repairs and have created a Whose parents are still $1 billion B-2 escrow account, leaving open the remote possibility of married: 78% building one more plane. Despite the budget vote, the Pentagon still wants to make the B-2 Who drop out of high school: 20% work. After the plane flunked a recent radar-evasion test, a blue- ribbon panel was appointed to discover why. There are now Who own, or have a friend who hints that the Pentagon may certify the B-2's evasive capacity owns, a gun: 45% by lowering the test program's standards. The Air Force is Who have considered suicide: 27% studying whether the radar-evasion capabilities needed to foil Soviet defenses-no longer a high priority- are the same as those Formal education of required against more likely foes such as Iraq. Another sign of a Thomas Edison: 3 months changed world: The committees set aside $1 billion from the defense Abraham Lincoln: 12 months budget for President Bush to use for humanitarian aid to the Soviet Union. 14 ILLUSTRATION: JENNIFER HEWITSON FOR USN&WR; CARTOON: BROOKINS RICHMOND TIMES-DISPATCH; PHOTO: NORTHROP CORP. U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, NOVEMBER 11, 1991 MIGRATION BUSINESS THE LAST TV CARS OF THE 21st CENTURY It was one of the most visible sym- Increasingly, the capital that decides what kinds of cars Americans drive and what bols of America's postwar domi- fuels they use is not Washington but Sacramento. Congress's 1990 Clean Air Act nance: watching television on a set allows states to choose either the federal government's engine-emission require- made by one of the American elec- ments or California's tougher standards. TAL tronics giants like Westinghouse, Last week, nine East Coast governors and Admiral or Motorola. But after the mayor of the District of Columbia years of faltering, that symbol has fi- opted for the California plan. If their nally faded entirely. In 1968, 28 ma- smog-fighting agreement holds, 1 of every jor American companies made tele- 3 American motorists will be subject to visions; now, only one remains: more rigorous automobile inspections, Zenith Electronics Corp. And last cleaner-burning gasoline and rules re- week, that sole survivor announced quiring updated antipollution equipment it is moving its assembly operations on new cars bought late in this decade. to Mexico. "It is the end of an era," The pact also significantly increases A smoggy day. Washington, D.C. says David Lachenbruch, editor of the chances that electric cars will catch Television Digest. on. Within eight years, according to the California plan, 2 percent of new vehicles Zenith's move is more symbolic must be battery powered. Twelve years from now, 1.in 10 cars is to run on electricity. than surprising; the company already makes about 50 percent of its televi- DOWN TO EARTH FOR MASTERS OF THE UNIVERSE sions south of the border. Zenith claims that price wars in the U.S. Salomon Inc. is trying to get it together. An early sign of success is the way the market-where analysts estimate scandal-scarred Wall Street firm's shares jumped last week in response to ads that that half of televisions are sold almost trumpeted surprising earnings and more modest compensation for traders. Instead at cost-have led to $500 million in- of paying huge bonuses to employees; Salomon's interim chairman, Warren Buffett, lost revenues in the past five years. redirected $110 million to shareholders. The move has left analysts wondering ZENITH ELECTRONICS CORP. whether other Wall Street firms will adopt a similar discretion. Meanwhile, the Salomon scandal has already prompted a big change. This week's Treasury auction will be the first in which the government uses new rules to prevent the kind of manipulation that, last summer, Salomon admitted it had practiced. Rather than restricting bidding to 39 primary dealers, the Treasury is allowing any registered broker to purchase its debt. This shouldn't raise Washington's borrowing costs, but it could further erode Salomon's position in the bond market. MONEY CLIP In Mexico. A Zenith factory 12% RECOVERY GNP POST-RESSION 10% budget deficit hit a Ironically, foreign companies con- STUCK ON THE GROWTH new record $269 ON RAMP 8% tinue to make televisions in the Unit- billion A lower-mid- ed States with familiar American GNP growth, after William dle-income family to- 6% three quarterly de- day already pays less brand names, including Holland's NV Philips Corp. (Magnavox, Syl- clines, suggests the in federal payroll 4% taxes-17.7%-than vania), France's Thomson SA (RCA, economy is revving 2% its engine. But other in the 1982 slump, General Electric) and Japan's Matsu- when it paid 18.8%. T10 factors show it still 0 shita Electric Industries Corp. (Qua- spinning its wheels: 75 '80 '83 sar). That situation poses a dilemma '71 A drop in inflation September unem- 1954 '58 to 2.1% enabled the for U.S. consumers who prefer to buy ployment inched up Fed to shave interest American-made products. "Do you to 6.8%, and con- rates amid hopes support Sony with its U.S. workers," sumer confidence this would boost asks labor official Robert Mingus, plunged 17% to the The current increasetinGN new-home sales criti- "or Zenith, now building its product lowest level since shows The weakest.recovery cal to a recovery; in outside the country?" February. from recession-in 7-years.and, September, sales fell Chances for tax reinforces talk double dip 12.9%, the biggest BY WARREN COHEN relief receded as the drop since 1989. U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, NOVEMBER 11, 1991 23 CALENDAR U.S. NEWS Gun for sale On December 26, the JOBS: AWAY THEY FLEW revolver used by Jack Ruby to kill Lee Harvey Oswald will be auc- Forget the Christmas ham. The December gift that many American workers are tioned in New York City. Earl receiving is a pink slip. General Motors this week is revealing details of a "major Ruby, executor of his brother's es- action" most likely the closing of factories plus a speedup of an earlier plan to tate, is asking that the bidding start eliminate 20,000 jobs by 1993. Caterpillar last week announced the "probable closing" at $100,000. of its York, Pa., factory and the likely loss of 1,900 jobs. Xerox disclosed the layoff of Gotta travel on On December 31, 2,500 workers. TRW Inc., the George Bush begins an 11-day tour big supplier of parts to the I've FALLeN... of Australia, Singapore, South Ko- automotive and aerospace in- AND I CAN'T rea and Japan. This is the same trip dustries, announced a restruc- GeT UP! that the president canceled last turing that will get rid of 10,000 month while under fire for ignoring positions. And IBM Chairman domestic issues. John Akers hinted that Big Season's greetings December 19 is Blue might have to cut more the last day Christmas-card senders than the 20,000 jobs it already can mail their domestic-bound plans to eliminate next year greetings and be assured of a timely (story, Page 48). delivery. Post offices may get a In the '70s and '80s, blue- break this season. Greeting-card an- collar jobs faded. Now, white- alysts believe sales are down slightly. collar slots are on the wane. Many losses are permanent, as high-tech jobs move overseas and defense contractors adjust to the post-cold-war world. Nor are cuts confined to the private sector. Thousands of state-government workers have been laid off, while huge numbers of teachers and local-government employees are sustaining pay freezes and furloughs. And although the official unemployment rate still hovers just below 7 percent, that figure does not account for 1 million people too discouraged to look for work. One result: Seven of 10 voters in a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll don't like the DATABASE way George Bush is tending the economy. Many who have jobs are afraid they're going to lose them. That fear, in turn, is causing people to hold on to their money, Average number of Christmas cards which means an even slower economy and more layoffs. Many of the announced received per household last year: 26 layoffs and plant closings will occur in mid-1992, just about the time the president tries to convince voters he has something going for him besides a victory overseas. Decrease in big companies sending Christmas cards this year: 25% HEALTH WOES OF THE FUTURE Hallmark Cards' designs for Christ- mas: 3,400; for Hanuka: 125 A half century ago, a government-run national health-care program seemed like something sure to come. But after World War II, a system that most Americans Share of Christmas cards bought by women: 90% considered far better evolved: Companies began giving employees fully paid health insurance plans as a fringe benefit. Last week, a report by Families USA, an advocacy Busiest mail day of the year: Monday group for the poor and aged, suggested that the system that has served much of before Christmas week (234 million America for four decades is coming apart. "American families and pieces on average) American businesses are being priced out of health insurance," the Average weight of a mail carrier's organization concluded. In 1980, it said, 24.5 million Americans had 16.4% no insurance. In 1990, some 34 million had none. In addition, wages bag: 35 pounds. Carriers who quit last December: 0.2% are depressed because employers have been forced to spend more on health care. As a result, the average family this year Postal employees in Alaska given is paying $4,296-nearly 12 percent 11.7% "official Santa designee" status and of average family income-for Share of allowed to open Santa's mail: 100 health care. By the end of the dec- average ade, that bite is expected to top 16 family income 9% Greeting cards sent by President Bush in 1990: 150,000, paid for by percent. Employers also will suffer. spent on health care the Republican National Committee The study predicts their health-care costs will quadruple by 2000. That, Mail sent this year by presidential the study suggests, means wages at mutt Millie: 3,041. Letter carriers the start of the 21st century will be bitten by dogs in 1990: 2,700 even more depressed. USN&WR-Basic data: Families USA Foundation 1980 1991 2000 12 ILLUSTRATION: ISTVAN BANYAI FOR USN&WR; CARTOON: ROGERS PITTSBURGH PRESS/UNITED FEATURE SYNDICATE U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, DECEMBER 23, 1991