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Originally Processed With FOIA(s): FOIA Number: S S FOIA MARKER This is not a textual record. This is used as an administrative marker by the George Bush Presidential Library Staff. Record Group/Collection: George H.W. Bush Presidential Records Collection/Office of Origin: Speechwriting, White House Office of Series: Speech File Backup Files Subseries: Alpha File, 1987-1991 OA/ID Number: 13846 Folder ID Number: 13846-003 Folder Title: USSR, 1989 [2] Stack: Row: Section: Shelf: Position: G 26 23 3 3 RCV BY:XEROX TELECOPIER 7011 ; 9-18-89 3:26PM ; 202 647 0244- ;# 1 09/18/89 15:26 202 647 0244 PA/PRS 1 001/016 Xtra CF: Richard Haass SAMUEL D. BERGER MEMORIAL LECTURE GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY SEPTEMBER 13, 1989 UNCHARTED WATERS: U.S. FOREIGN POLICY IN A TIME OF TRANSITION U.S. DEPUTY SECRETARY OF STATE LAWRENCE S. EAGLEBURGER RCV BY:XEROX TELECOPIER 7011 ; 9-18-89 3:26PM ; 202 647 0244-> ;# 1 09/18/89 15:26 202 647 0244 PA/PRS 5. 001/016 Xtra CF: Richard Haass SAMUEL D. BERGER MEMORIAL LECTURE GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY SEPTEMBER 13, 1989 UNCHARTED WATERS: U.S. FOREIGN POLICY IN A TIME OF TRANSITION U.S. DEPUTY SECRETARY OF STATE LAWRENCE S. EAGLEBURGER RCV BY:XEROX TELECOPIER 7011 ; 9-18-89 3:27PM ; 202 647 0244-> 3 09/18/89 15:27 202 647 0244 PA/PRS 4 003/016 - 2 - TO BE FAIR, THE UNITED STATES DID LEARN ONE IMPORTANT LESSON FOLLOWING THE BITTER EXPERIENCE OF THE PERIOD BETWEEN THE FIRST AND SECOND WORLD WARS, AND THAT WAS THE NEED FOR AN ACTIVE AMERICAN ROLE AND THE ACCEPTANCE OF AMERICAN RESPONSIBILITY IN THE PRESERVATION OF INTERNATIONAL PEACE AND STABILITY. BUT NOW FOR THE THIRD TIME IN THIS CENTURY, WE RISK BECOMING VICTIMS OF OUR OWN SUCCESS. FOR WE ARE HEARING IT SAID THAT THE REMORSELESS POLITICAL, IDEOLOGICAL AND MILITARY COMPETITION BETWEEN THE U.S. AND THE SOVIET UNION KNOWN AS THE COLD WAR IS NOW COMING TO AN END. WE ARE ALSO HEARING IT SAID THAT THIS IS A WAR WHICH IS ENDING LARGELY ON OUR TERMS. WHILE I BELIEVE MUCH OF THE DEBATE ON THIS SUBJECT IS PREMATURE, IT IS INDISPUTABLE THAT WE ARE ENTERING A NEW ERA IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, AN ERA WHICH IS LARGELY THE PRODUCT OF OUR SUCCESSFUL POST-WAR POLICIES. NOW IS NOT THE TIME, HOWEVER, FOR US TO BE PATTING OURSELVES ON THE BACK. COMPLACENCY OVER OUR SUCCESS IS NO SUBSTITUTE FOR HARD-NOSED THINKING ABOUT THE NEW ORDER OF FOREIGN POLICY CHALLENGES THAT AWAITS US IN THE COMING YEARS. WE ARE ENTERING UNCHARTED WATERS, AND WE ARE GOING TO REQUIRE A COMPASS DIFFERENT FROM THE ONE WHICH HAS THUS FAR GUIDED US SAFELY THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE 20TH CENTURY. RCV BY:XEROX TELECOPIER 7011 ; 9-18-89 3:27PM ; 202 647 0244-> ;# 3 09/18/89 15:27 202 647 0244 PA/PRS 1 003/016 - 2 - TO BE FAIR, THE UNITED STATES DID LEARN ONE IMPORTANT LESSON FOLLOWING THE BITTER EXPERIENCE OF THE PERIOD BETWEEN THE FIRST AND SECOND WORLD WARS, AND THAT WAS THE NEED FOR AN ACTIVE AMERICAN ROLE AND THE ACCEPTANCE OF AMERICAN RESPONSIBILITY IN THE PRESERVATION OF INTERNATIONAL PEACE AND STABILITY. BUT NOW FOR THE THIRD TIME IN THIS CENTURY, WE RISK BECOMING VICTIMS OF OUR OWN SUCCESS. FOR WE ARE HEARING IT SAID THAT THE REMORSELESS POLITICAL, IDEOLOGICAL AND MILITARY COMPETITION BETWEEN THE U.S. AND THE SOVIET UNION KNOWN AS THE COLD WAR IS NOW COMING TO AN END. WE ARE ALSO HEARING IT SAID THAT THIS IS A WAR WHICH IS ENDING LARGELY ON OUR TERMS. WHILE I BELIEVE MUCH OF THE DEBATE ON THIS SUBJECT IS PREMATURE, IT IS INDISPUTABLE THAT WE ARE ENTERING A NEW ERA IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, AN ERA WHICH IS LARGELY THE PRODUCT OF OUR SUCCESSFUL POST-WAR POLICIES. NOW IS NOT THE TIME, HOWEVER, FOR US TO BE PATTING OURSELVES ON THE BACK. COMPLACENCY OVER OUR SUCCESS IS NO SUBSTITUTE FOR HARD-NOSED THINKING ABOUT THE NEW ORDER OF FOREIGN POLICY CHALLENGES THAT AWAITS US IN THE COMING YEARS. WE ARE ENTERING UNCHARTED WATERS, AND WE ARE GOING TO REQUIRE A COMPASS DIFFERENT FROM THE ONE WHICH HAS THUS FAR GUIDED US SAFELY THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE 20TH CENTURY. RCV BY:XEROX TELECOPIER 7011 ; 9-18-89 3:28PM ; 202 647 0244-> ;# 4 09/18/89 15:27 202 647 0244 PA/PRS 004/016 - 3 - BUT FIRST, LET ME INDULGE IN A BIT OF COMPLACENCY OF MY OWN. HISTORY WILL RECORD THAT THE UNITED STATES, WHILE NOT ANTICIPATING THE COLD WAR, FULLY MET THE CHALLENGES AND THE RESPONSIBILITIES AS A GLOBAL POWER WHICH IT THRUST UPON US, WHAT DID WE ACCOMPLISH? FIRST, WE HELPED SAVE WESTERN EUROPE FROM ECONOMIC RUIN AND PERHAPS PERMANENT DECLINE, LAYING THE GROUNDWORK FOR THE CONTINENT'S STARTLING STRENGTH AND PROSPERITY TODAY. SECOND, WE TOOK THE LEAD IN ESTABLISHING A NUMBER OF MULTILATERAL INSTITUTIONS WHICH PERMITTED, FOR THE FIRST TIME IN HISTORY, THE RATIONAL MANAGEMENT OF AN INTERDEPENDENT FREE MARKET WORLD ECONOMY. THIRD, WE WELCOMED OUR FORMER ENEMIES, WEST GERMANY AND JAPAN, INTO THE FOLD OF DEMOCRATIC WESTERN NATIONS, BURYING THE ENMITIES OF THE PAST AND RENDERING WAR BETWEEN AND AMONG OURSELVES PERMANENTLY UNTHINKABLE. AND FOURTH, WE, TOGETHER WITH OUR ALLIES IN NATO, STOOD FIRM AGAINST SOVIET EXPANSION IN EUROPE AND GLOBALLY. THESE WERE NO SMALL ACCOMPLISHMENTS. IT IS NOT EASY FOR A DEMOCRACY TO MAINTAIN THE STEADINESS OF PURPOSE AND THE POPULAR CONSENSUS ESSENTIAL TO A SUCCESSFUL AND COHERENT FOREIGN POLICY. THE DIFFICULTY OF OUR TASK WAS COMPOUNDED BY THE FACT THAT WE WERE BUT ONE OF A COALITION OF DEMOCRACIES, AND THAT WE FACED A FORMIDABLE ADVERSARY WHOSE MESSIANIC ZEAL WAS MATCHED ONLY BY ITS SEEMINGLY LIMITLESS ABILITY TO IGNORE THE NEEDS OF ITS OWN PEOPLE AND DEVOTE VAST RESOURCES TOWARD ACQUIRING THE INSTRUMENTS OF INTIMIDATION AND AGGRESSION. WE SUCCEEDED RCV BY:XEROX TELECOPIER 7011 ; 9-18-89 3:28PM ; 202 647 0244-> ;# 4 09/18/89 15:27 202 647 0244 PA/PRS 004/016 - 3 - BUT FIRST, LET ME INDULGE IN A BIT OF COMPLACENCY OF MY OWN. HISTORY WILL RECORD THAT THE UNITED STATES, WHILE NOT ANTICIPATING THE COLD WAR, FULLY MET THE CHALLENGES AND THE RESPONSIBILITIES AS A GLOBAL POWER WHICH IT THRUST UPON US. WHAT DID WE ACCOMPLISH? FIRST, WE HELPED SAVE WESTERN EUROPE FROM ECONOMIC RUIN AND PERHAPS PERMANENT DECLINE, LAYING THE GROUNDWORK FOR THE CONTINENT'S STARTLING STRENGTH AND PROSPERITY TODAY. SECOND, WE TOOK THE LEAD IN ESTABLISHING A NUMBER OF MULTILATERAL INSTITUTIONS WHICH PERMITTED, FOR THE FIRST TIME IN HISTORY, THE RATIONAL MANAGEMENT OF AN INTERDEPENDENT FREE MARKET WORLD ECONOMY. THIRD, WE WELCOMED OUR FORMER ENEMIES, WEST GERMANY AND JAPAN, INTO THE FOLD OF DEMOCRATIC WESTERN NATIONS, BURYING THE ENMITIES OF THE PAST AND RENDERING WAR BETWEEN AND AMONG OURSELVES PERMANENTLY UNTHINKABLE. AND FOURTH, WE, TOGETHER WITH OUR ALLIES IN NATO, STOOD FIRM AGAINST SOVIET EXPANSION IN EUROPE AND GLOBALLY. THESE WERE NO SMALL ACCOMPLISHMENTS. IT IS NOT EASY FOR A DEMOCRACY TO MAINTAIN THE STEADINESS OF PURPOSE AND THE POPULAR CONSENSUS ESSENTIAL TO A SUCCESSFUL AND COHERENT FOREIGN POLICY. THE DIFFICULTY OF OUR TASK WAS COMPOUNDED BY THE FACT THAT WE WERE BUT ONE OF A COALITION OF DEMOCRACIES, AND THAT WE FACED A FORMIDABLE ADVERSARY WHOSE MESSIANIC ZEAL WAS MATCHED ONLY BY ITS SEEMINGLY LIMITLESS ABILITY TO IGNORE THE NEEDS OF ITS OWN PEOPLE AND DEVOTE VAST RESOURCES TOWARD ACQUIRING THE INSTRUMENTS OF INTIMIDATION AND AGGRESSION. WE SUCCEEDED RCV BY:XERUX TELECOPIER 7011 9-18-89 3:28PM ; 202 647 0244-> ;#5 09/18/89 15:28 202 647 0244 PA/PRS 005/016 - 4 - BECAUSE WE AND OUR ALLIES AGREED THAT THE THREAT WE FACED IN COMMON WAS IMMINENT AND REAL, AND BECAUSE THE PEOPLES OF THE WEST WERE WILLING TO BEAR THE SACRIFICES NECESSARY TO MEET THAT THREAT. OUR SUCCESS SPEAKS FOR ITSELF. THE WEST TODAY IS STRONGER COLLECTIVELY THAN AT ANY TIME SINCE WORLD WAR II. WE ARE PROSPEROUS AND WE ARE SECURE. WE ARE CONFIDENT OF OUR PURPOSE AND OF THE VALIDITY-AND UNIVERSALITY-OF OUR DEMOCRATIC IDEALS. ON THE OTHER SIDE, COMMUNISM AS A PHILOSOPHY OF GOVERNMENT AND AS A GUIDE TO ECONOMICS IS IN DISARRAY. TODAY, COMMUNISM IS THE REFUGE OF DESPOTS AND OLIGARCHS WHO CLING DESPERATELY TO POWER BUT WHO KNOW THEY ARE CONDEMNED BY HISTORY. FROM EASTERN EUROPE TO NICARAGUA, AND FROM ETHIOPIA TO CUBA, COMMUNIST ECONOMIES ARE RECOGNIZED FAILURES. THE HISTORY OF THE LAST TEN YEARS IS AN ALMOST UNBLEMISHED RECORD OF MOVEMENT TOWARD MARKET-ORIENTED REFORMS THE WORLD OVER AND OF THE VICTORY OF DEMOCRATIC FORCES OVER DICTATORSHIPS OF THE LEFT AND THE RIGHT. BUT THE RECORD OF OUR ACHIEVEMENTS IS NOT THE SUBJECT OF MY ADDRESS TO YOU THIS EVENING. INSTEAD, I WOULD LIKE DELIBERATELY TO PROVOKE REFLECTION ON THE FUNDAMENTALLY DIFFERENT SET OF CHALLENGES THE UNITED STATES IS GOING TO FACE IN THE INTERNATIONAL ARENA AS WE MOVE INTO THE NEXT CENTURY. RCV BY:XEROX TELECOPIER 7011 9-18-89 3:28PM ; 202 647 0244-> ;#5 09/18/89 15:28 202 647 0244 PA/PRS 1 005/016 - 4 - BECAUSE WE AND OUR ALLIES AGREED THAT THE THREAT WE FACED IN COMMON WAS IMMINENT AND REAL, AND BECAUSE THE PEOPLES OF THE WEST WERE WILLING TO BEAR THE SACRIFICES NECESSARY TO MEET THAT THREAT. OUR SUCCESS SPEAKS FOR ITSELF. THE WEST TODAY IS STRONGER COLLECTIVELY THAN AT ANY TIME SINCE WORLD WAR II. WE ARE PROSPEROUS AND WE ARE SECURE, WE ARE CONFIDENT OF OUR PURPOSE AND OF THE VALIDITY--AND UNIVERSALITY-OF OUR DEMOCRATIC IDEALS. ON THE OTHER SIDE, COMMUNISM AS A PHILOSOPHY OF GOVERNMENT AND AS A GUIDE TO ECONOMICS IS IN DISARRAY. TODAY, COMMUNISM IS THE REFUGE OF DESPOTS AND OLIGARCHS WHO CLING DESPERATELY TO POWER BUT WHO KNOW THEY ARE CONDEMNED BY HISTORY. FROM EASTERN EUROPE TO NICARAGUA, AND FROM ETHIOPIA TO CUBA, COMMUNIST ECONOMIES ARE RECOGNIZED FAILURES. THE HISTORY OF THE LAST TEN YEARS IS AN ALMOST UNBLEMISHED RECORD OF MOVEMENT TOWARD MARKET-ORIENTED REFORMS THE WORLD OVER AND OF THE VICTORY OF DEMOCRATIC FORCES OVER DICTATORSHIPS OF THE LEFT AND THE RIGHT. BUT THE RECORD OF OUR ACHIEVEMENTS IS NOT THE SUBJECT OF MY ADDRESS TO YOU THIS EVENING. INSTEAD, I WOULD LIKE DELIBERATELY TO PROVOKE REFLECTION ON THE FUNDAMENTALLY DIFFERENT SET OF CHALLENGES THE UNITED STATES IS GOING TO FACE IN THE INTERNATIONAL ARENA AS WE MOVE INTO THE NEXT CENTURY. RCV BY:XEROX TELECOPIER 7011 ; 9-18-89 3:29PM ; 202 647 0244-> ;# 6 09/18/89 15:29 202 647 0244 PA/PRS 5. 006/016 - 5 - WHAT WE HAVE TO UNDERSTAND IS THAT THE BIPOLAR WORLD OF THE POST-WAR ERA, IN WHICH THE U.S. AND THE SOVIET UNION DOMINATED WORLD EVENTS AND SET THE AGENDA FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE ALLIANCES, IS OVER. WE ARE NOW MOVING INTO, OR I SHOULD SAY BACK INTO -- FOR SUCH HAS BEEN THE NATURE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS SINCE TIME IMMEMORIAL-A WORLD IN WHICH POWER AND INFLUENCE IS DIFFUSED AMONG A MULTIPLICITY OF STATES. OBVIOUSLY, THIS DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN WELCOMED IN THE WEST INSOFAR AS IT REFLECTS A DECLINE IN SOVIET ECONOMIC POWER AND. THE PROCESS OF POLITICAL DECAY WHICH NOW SEEMS ENDEMIC TO EASTERN EUROPE. BUT LET US NOT FOOL OURSELVES. IF IT IS TRUE THAT WE HAVE EMERGED VICTORIOUS FROM THE COLD WAR, THEN WE, LIKE THE SOVIETS BEHIND US, HAVE CROSSED THE FINISH LINE VERY MUCH OUT OF BREATH. BOTH WE AND THE SOVIETS ARE FACED WITH A FRANKLY DIMINISHED CAPACITY TO INFLUENCE EVENTS AND PROMOTE OUR RESPECTIVE INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE WORLD ON THE SCALE TO WHICH WE HAVE BECOME ACCUSTOMED. THIS IS NOT TO SAY THAT THE U.S. AND THE SOVIET UNION WILL CEASE TO BE THE WORLD'S ONLY TRUE SUPERPOWERS, OR THAT THE SOVIETS WILL NOT REPRESENT THE PRINCIPAL THREAT TO WESTERN SECURITY INTERESTS- FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. NOR IS THE MULTIPOLAR WORLD INTO WHICH WE ARE MOVING NECESSARILY GOING TO RCV BY:XEROX TELECOPIER 7011 ; 9-18-89 3:29PM ; 202 647 0244-> 6 09/18/89 15:29 202 647 0244 PA/PRS 1 006/016 - 5 - - WHAT WE HAVE TO UNDERSTAND IS THAT THE BIPOLAR WORLD OF THE POST-WAR ERA, IN WHICH THE U.S. AND THE SOVIET UNION DOMINATED WORLD EVENTS AND SET THE AGENDA FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE ALLIANCES, IS OVER. WE ARE NOW MOVING INTO, OR I SHOULD SAY BACK INTO -- FOR SUCH HAS BEEN THE NATURE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS SINCE TIME IMMEMORIAL-A WORLD IN WHICH POWER AND INFLUENCE IS DIFFUSED AMONG A MULTIPLICITY OF STATES. OBVIOUSLY, THIS DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN WELCOMED IN THE WEST INSOFAR AS IT REFLECTS A DECLINE IN SOVIET ECONOMIC POWER AND. THE PROCESS OF POLITICAL DECAY WHICH NOW SEEMS ENDEMIC TO EASTERN EUROPE. BUT LET US NOT FOOL OURSELVES. IF IT IS TRUE THAT WE HAVE EMERGED VICTORIOUS FROM THE COLD WAR, THEN WE, LIKE THE SOVIETS BEHIND US, HAVE CROSSED THE FINISH LINE VERY MUCH OUT OF BREATH. BOTH WE AND THE SOVIETS ARE FACED WITH A FRANKLY DIMINISHED CAPACITY TO INFLUENCE EVENTS AND PROMOTE OUR RESPECTIVE INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE WORLD ON THE SCALE TO WHICH WE HAVE BECOME ACCUSTOMED. THIS IS NOT TO SAY THAT THE U.S. AND THE SOVIET UNION WILL CEASE TO BE THE WORLD'S ONLY TRUE SUPERPOWERS, OR THAT THE SOVIETS WILL NOT REPRESENT THE PRINCIPAL THREAT TO WESTERN SECURITY INTERESTS- FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. NOR IS THE MULTIPOLAR WORLD INTO WHICH WE ARE MOVING NECESSARILY GOING TO RCV BY:XEROX TELECOPIER 7011 ; 9-18-89 3:30PM ; 202 647 0244-> -] 09/18/89 15:29 202 647 0244 PA/PRS 007/016 - 6 - BE A SAFER PLACE THAN THE COLD WAR ERA FROM WHICH WE ARE EMERGING, GIVEN THE EXISTENCE AND INDEED THE PROLIFERATION OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION. FOR ALL ITS RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES, THE COLD WAR WAS CHARACTERIZED BY A REMARKABLY STABLE AND PREDICTABLE SET OF RELATIONS AMONG THE GREAT POWERS. A BRIEF LOOK AT THE HISTORY BOOKS WILL TELL US THAT WE CANNOT SAY AS MUCH ABOUT THE PERIOD LEADING FROM THE BIRTH OF THE EUROPEAN NATION-STATES UP THROUGH THE OUTBREAK OF THE SECOND WORLD WAR. WE LIVE, THEN, IN A TIME OF TRANSITION, ONE OF RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES. THERE IS THE PROSPECT BEFORE US THAT THE EAST BLOC COUNTRIES WILL AT LAST JOIN THE FAMILY OF DEMOCRATIC NATIONS, AND THAT THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES WILL ENJOY THE FRUITS OF PROGRESS BY EMBRACING MARKET-ORIENTED REFORMS. BUT THERE IS ALSO THE DANGER THAT CHANGE IN THE EAST WILL PROVE TOO DESTABILIZING TO BE SUSTAINED, AND THAT THE NATIONS OF THE THIRD WORLD WILL BE CRUSHED BY THE WEIGHT OF DEBT AND DECAY, LEADING TO INSTABILITY ON A BROAD SCALE. IF THERE IS ONE MESSAGE I WOULD LIKE TO CONVEY THIS EVENING, IT IS THAT OUR ABILITY TO MEET THE CHALLENGES IN EAST-WEST AND NORTH-SOUTH RELATIONS WILL DEPEND SUBSTANTIALLY ON HOW WELL THE MAJOR WESTERN INDUSTRIAL NATIONS MANAGE THE TRANSITION TO A NEW SET OF RELATIONS AND A NEW DISTRIBUTION OF TELECUPIER 9-18-89 3:30PM ; 202 647 0244-> ;#7 09/18/89 15:29 202 647 0244 PA/PRS 1 007/016 - 6 - BE A SAFER PLACE THAN THE COLD WAR ERA FROM WHICH WE ARE EMERGING, GIVEN THE EXISTENCE AND INDEED THE PROLIFERATION OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION. FOR ALL ITS RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES, THE COLD WAR WAS CHARACTERIZED BY A REMARKABLY STABLE AND PREDICTABLE SET OF RELATIONS AMONG THE GREAT POWERS. A BRIEF LOOK AT THE HISTORY BOOKS WILL TELL US THAT WE CANNOT SAY AS MUCH ABOUT THE PERIOD LEADING FROM THE BIRTH OF THE EUROPEAN NATION-STATES UP THROUGH THE OUTBREAK OF THE SECOND WORLD WAR. WE LIVE, THEN, IN A TIME OF TRANSITION, ONE OF RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES. THERE IS THE PROSPECT BEFORE US THAT THE EAST BLOC COUNTRIES WILL AT LAST JOIN THE FAMILY OF DEMOCRATIC NATIONS, AND THAT THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES WILL ENJOY THE FRUITS OF PROGRESS BY EMBRACING MARKET-ORIENTED REFORMS. BUT THERE IS ALSO THE DANGER THAT CHANGE IN THE EAST WILL PROVE TOO DESTABILIZING TO BE SUSTAINED, AND THAT THE NATIONS OF THE THIRD WORLD WILL BE CRUSHED BY THE WEIGHT OF DEBT AND DECAY, LEADING TO INSTABILITY ON A BROAD SCALE. IF THERE IS ONE MESSAGE I WOULD LIKE TO CONVEY THIS EVENING, IT IS THAT OUR ABILITY TO MEET THE CHALLENGES IN EAST-WEST AND NORTH-SOUTH RELATIONS WILL DEPEND SUBSTANTIALLY ON HOW WELL THE MAJOR WESTERN INDUSTRIAL NATIONS MANAGE THE TRANSITION TO A NEW SET OF RELATIONS AND A NEW DISTRIBUTION OF RCV BY:XERUX TELECOPIER 7011 ; 9-18-89 3:30PM ; 202 647 0244-> ;# 8 09/18/89 15:30 202 647 0244 PA/PRS 008/016 7 - RESPONSIBILITIES AMONG THEMSELVES. CLEARLY, THE BALANCE OF POWER AMONG THE U.S., WESTERN EUROPE AND JAPAN HAS SHIFTED OVER THE LAST DECADE. WE CAN DO SOMETHING ABOUT OUR TRADE AND BUDGET DEFICITS, BUT WE CAN DO NOTHING TO ALTER THE FUNDAMENTAL FACT THAT WE ARE NO LONGER GOING TO BE ABLE TO GET OUR WAY IN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS AS WE ONCE DID. HOW WE ADJUST TO THIS FACT, AND HOW OUR WESTERN PARTNERS ADJUST TO THEIR NEW-FOUND INDEPENDENCE AND RESPONSIBILITIES WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THE STABLE INTERNATIONAL FRAMEWORK THE U.S. DID so MUCH TO FOSTER IN THE POST-WAR PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FUNCTION FOR THE BENEFIT OF ALL, OR WHETHER WE WILL SLIP BACK TOWARD THE DARK DAYS OF AUTARKY, UNILATERALISM, AND PROTECTIONISM WHICH PROVED so DAMAGING TO THE WEST IN THE 1920S AND 30s. THE SHIFT IN THE BALANCE OF POWER AMONG THE LEADING WESTERN COUNTRIES DOES NOT MEAN THE U.S. MUST ABANDON ITS LEADERSHIP ROLE. ON THE CONTRARY, THE U.S. WILL REMAIN FOR LONG INTO THE NEXT CENTURY THE ONLY POWER ABLE - OR AT LEAST WILLING -- TO THINK IN GLOBAL TERMS AND TO FASHION POLICIES IN THE OVERALL POLITICAL, ECONOMIC AND SECURITY INTERESTS OF THE WEST. WE HAVE NOT ALWAYS DONE THIS WELL, NOR HAVE WE NECESSARILY DONE SO FOR SELFLESS REASONS, BUT THE FACT REMAINS THAT NONE OF OUR WESTERN PARTNERS HAS THE GLOBAL REACH OR THE DISPOSITION TO TAKE THE LEAD IN SAFEGUARDING AND EXPANDING THE INSTITUTIONAL MECHANISMS WHICH ARE VITAL TO THE PRESERVATION OF INTERNATIONAL RCV TELECOPIER 7011 9-18-89 3:30PM ; 202 647 02449 ;# 8 09/18/89 15:30 202 647 0244 PA/PRS 1 008/016 - 7 - RESPONSIBILITIES AMONG THEMSELVES. CLEARLY, THE BALANCE OF POWER AMONG THE U.S., WESTERN EUROPE AND JAPAN HAS SHIFTED OVER THE LAST DECADE. WE CAN DO SOMETHING ABOUT OUR TRADE AND BUDGET DEFICITS, BUT WE CAN DO NOTHING TO ALTER THE FUNDAMENTAL FACT THAT WE ARE NO LONGER GOING TO BE ABLE TO GET OUR WAY IN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS AS WE ONCE DID. HOW WE ADJUST TO THIS FACT, AND HOW OUR WESTERN PARTNERS ADJUST TO THEIR NEW-FOUND INDEPENDENCE AND RESPONSIBILITIES WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THE STABLE INTERNATIONAL FRAMEWORK THE U.S. DID so MUCH TO FOSTER IN THE POST-WAR PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FUNCTION FOR THE BENEFIT OF ALL, OR WHETHER WE WILL SLIP BACK TOWARD THE DARK. DAYS OF AUTARKY, UNILATERALISM, AND PROTECTIONISM WHICH PROVED SO DAMAGING TO THE WEST IN THE 1920S AND 30s. THE SHIFT IN THE BALANCE OF POWER AMONG THE LEADING WESTERN COUNTRIES DOES NOT MEAN THE U.S. MUST ABANDON ITS LEADERSHIP ROLE. ON THE CONTRARY, THE U.S. WILL REMAIN FOR LONG INTO THE NEXT CENTURY THE ONLY POWER ABLE - OR AT LEAST WILLING -- TO THINK IN GLOBAL TERMS AND TO FASHION POLICIES IN THE OVERALL POLITICAL, ECONOMIC AND SECURITY INTERESTS OF THE WEST. WE HAVE NOT ALWAYS DONE THIS WELL, NOR HAVE WE NECESSARILY DONE so FOR SELFLESS REASONS, BUT THE FACT REMAINS THAT NONE OF OUR WESTERN PARTNERS HAS THE GLOBAL REACH OR THE DISPOSITION TO TAKE THE LEAD IN SAFEGUARDING AND EXPANDING THE INSTITUTIONAL MECHANISMS WHICH ARE VITAL TO THE PRESERVATION OF INTERNATIONAL RCV BY:XEROX TELECOPIER 7011 ; 9-18-89 3:31PM ; 202 647 0244-> ;# 9 09/18/89 15:31 202 647 0244 PA/PRS 1 009/016 - 8 - ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL STABILITY. OUR CAPACITY TO PLAY THIS ROLE MAY HAVE BEEN DIMINISHED, BUT THE NEED FOR US TO DO SO HAS NOT. FOR THE U.S. TO CONTINUE TO PLAY THIS ROLE, HOWEVER, WILL INCREASINGLY REQUIRE A RECOGNITION BY OUR WESTERN DEMOCRATIC PARTNERS THAT, WITH INCREASED WEALTH AND INFLUENCE, COME INCREASED RESPONSIBILITIES. FOR EXAMPLE, THE WEST EUROPÉANS, AS THEY MOVE TOWARDS THE CREATION OF A SINGLE INTERNAL MARKET IN JANUARY 1993, WILL HAVE TO INSURE A CONTINUED OPEN TRADE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE U.S. IF WE ARE GOING TO AVOID A PROTECTIONIST SPIRAL AND A CONSEQUENT DETERIORATION IN THE TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONSHIP. SIMILARLY, THE JAPANESE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO ACCEPT THE FACT THAT THEY CANNOT AFFORD TO PURSUE UNILATERAL ADVANTAGE TO THE DETRIMENT OF THE OVERALL STABILITY OF THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM. IN THIS RESPECT, IT IS INCUMBENT ON BOTH THE U.S. AND THE WEST EUROPEANS TO FIND INSTITUTIONAL MEANS OF BRINGING THE JAPANESE INTO A CLOSER CONSULTATIVE RELATIONSHIP ON A BROAD RANGE OF POLITICAL AS WELL AS ECONOMIC ISSUES, SO THAT THEY CAN PLAY THE CREATIVE AND POSITIVE INTERNATIONAL ROLE WHICH IS RIGHTFULLY AND NECESSARILY THEIRS. THE PROBLEMS OF ADJUSTMENT WHICH WE IN THE WEST FACE PALE IN COMPARISON TO THOSE FACING THE SOVIETS TODAY. THE SOVIET UNION IS GOING THROUGH WHAT CAN ONLY BE DESCRIBED AS A CRISIS ROV BY:XEROX TELECOPIER 7011 9-18-89 3:31PM ; 202 647 0244-> ;# 9 09/18/89 15:31 202 647 0244 PA/PRS 1 009/016 - 8 - ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL STABILITY. OUR CAPACITY TO PLAY THIS ROLE MAY HAVE BEEN DIMINISHED, BUT THE NEED FOR US TO DO SO HAS NOT. FOR THE U.S. TO CONTINUE TO PLAY THIS ROLE, HOWEVER, WILL INCREASINGLY REQUIRE A RECOGNITION BY OUR WESTERN DEMOCRATIC PARTNERS THAT, WITH INCREASED WEALTH AND INFLUENCE, COME INCREASED RESPONSIBILITIES. FOR EXAMPLE, THE WEST EUROPÉANS, AS THEY MOVE TOWARDS THE CREATION OF A SINGLE INTERNAL MARKET IN JANUARY 1993, WILL HAVE TO INSURE A CONTINUED OPEN TRADE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE U.S. IF WE ARE GOING TO AVOID A PROTECTIONIST SPIRAL AND A CONSEQUENT DETERIORATION IN THE TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONSHIP. SIMILARLY, THE JAPANESE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO ACCEPT THE FACT THAT THEY CANNOT AFFORD TO PURSUE UNILATERAL ADVANTAGE TO THE DETRIMENT OF THE OVERALL STABILITY OF THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM. IN THIS RESPECT, IT IS INCUMBENT ON BOTH THE U.S. AND THE WEST EUROPEANS TO FIND INSTITUTIONAL MEANS OF BRINGING THE JAPANESE INTO A CLOSER CONSULTATIVE RELATIONSHIP ON A BROAD RANGE OF POLITICAL AS WELL AS ECONOMIC ISSUES, SO THAT THEY CAN PLAY THE CREATIVE AND POSITIVE INTERNATIONAL ROLE WHICH IS RIGHTFULLY AND NECESSARILY THEIRS. THE PROBLEMS OF ADJUSTMENT WHICH WE IN THE WEST FACE PALE IN COMPARISON TO THOSE FACING THE SOVIETS TODAY. THE SOVIET UNION IS GOING THROUGH WHAT CAN ONLY BE DESCRIBED AS A CRISIS RCV BY:XEROX TELECOPIER 7011 ; 9-16-89 3:32PM ; 202 647 0244-> ;#10 09/18/89 15:31 202 647 0244 PA/PRS 010/016 - 9 - OF MASSIVE PROPORTIONS. MIKHAIL GORBACHEV HAS HAD THE WISDOM TO UNDERSTAND THAT RADICAL CHANGE IS NECESSARY TO SAVE HIS COUNTRY FROM PERMANENT DECLINE. THIS IS NOT THE FIRST TIME, HOWEVER, THAT THE KREMLIN HAS ENGINEERED AN IDEOLOGICAL RETREAT IN ORDER TO STIMULATE NATIONAL RECOVERY. LENIN FIRST DID so WITH HIS MARKET-ORIENTED NEW ECONOMIC PLAN IN THE 1920s, AND STALIN SUBMERGED IDEOLOGY IN FAVOR OF RUSSIAN NATIONALISM DURING THE GREAT PATRIOTIC WAR AGAINST NAZI GERMANY. WE NEED TO KEEP THIS HISTORY IN MIND, AS WELL AS THE FACT THAT GORBACHEV IS NO ANTI-COMMUNIST, AND THAT HE INTENDS TO MAKE THE SOVIET UNION AS STRONG AS HE POSSIBLY CAN. NEVERTHELESS, IT IS TRUE THAT THE CHANGES INTRODUCED BY GORBACHEV OFFER THE FIRST REALISTIC HOPE FOR A TRANSFORMATION IN THE NATURE OF THE SOVIET SYSTEM AND FOR A QUALITATIVE IMPROVEMENT IN EAST-WEST RELATIONS. AS PRESIDENT BUSH HAS ARGUED, WE HAVE A HISTORIC OPPORTUNITY NOW TO END THE POST-WAR DIVISION OF EUROPE ON TERMS WHICH REFLECT OUR DEMOCRATIC PRINCIPLES. THIS IS BECAUSE MR. GORBACHEV APPARENTLY HAS UNDERSTOOD THAT HIS COUNTRY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO COMPETE ECONOMICALLY UNLESS RESOURCES ARE SHIFTED AWAY FROM THE MILITARY, AND THAT THE SOVIET UNION WILL NOT BE ABLE TO ENTER THE POST-INDUSTRIAL AGE UNLESS IT OPENS ITS SOCIETY TO THE OUTSIDE WORLD AND ESTABLISHES RELATIONS WITH THE WEST ON A NORMAL FOOTING. IT IS FOR THESE REASONS THAT HE HAS MADE RCV BY:XEROX TELECOPIER 7011 ; 9-18-89 3:32PM ; 202 647 0244-> ;#10 09/18/89 15:31 202 647 0244 PA/PRS 010/016 - 9 - OF MASSIVE PROPORTIONS. MIKHAIL GORBACHEV HAS HAD THE WISDOM TO UNDERSTAND THAT RADICAL CHANGE IS NECESSARY TO SAVE HIS COUNTRY FROM PERMANENT DECLINE. THIS IS NOT THE FIRST TIME, HOWEVER, THAT THE KREMLIN HAS ENGINEERED AN IDEOLOGICAL RETREAT IN ORDER TO STIMULATE NATIONAL RECOVERY. LENIN FIRST DID SO WITH HIS MARKET-ORIENTED NEW ECONOMIC PLAN IN THE 1920s, AND STALIN SUBMERGED IDEOLOGY IN FAVOR OF RUSSIAN NATIONALISM DURING THE GREAT PATRIOTIC WAR AGAINST NAZI GERMANY. WE NEED TO KEEP THIS HISTORY IN MIND, AS WELL AS THE FACT THAT GORBACHEV IS NO ANTI-COMMUNIST, AND THAT HE INTENDS TO MAKE THE SOVIET UNION AS STRONG AS HE POSSIBLY CAN. NEVERTHELESS, IT IS TRUE THAT THE CHANGES INTRODUCED BY GORBACHEV OFFER THE FIRST REALISTIC HOPE FOR A TRANSFORMATION IN THE NATURE OF THE SOVIET SYSTEM AND FOR A QUALITATIVE IMPROVEMENT IN EAST-WEST RELATIONS. AS PRESIDENT BUSH HAS ARGUED, WE HAVE A HISTORIC OPPORTUNITY NOW TO END THE POST-WAR DIVISION OF EUROPE ON TERMS WHICH REFLECT OUR DEMOCRATIC PRINCIPLES. THIS IS BECAUSE MR. GORBACHEV APPARENTLY HAS UNDERSTOOD THAT HIS COUNTRY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO COMPETE ECONOMICALLY UNLESS RESOURCES ARE SHIFTED AWAY FROM THE MILITARY, AND THAT THE SOVIET UNION WILL NOT BE ABLE TO ENTER THE POST-INDUSTRIAL AGE UNLESS IT OPENS ITS SOCIETY TO THE OUTSIDE WORLD AND ESTABLISHES RELATIONS WITH THE WEST ON A NORMAL FOOTING. IT IS FOR THESE REASONS THAT HE HAS MADE RCV BY:XEROX TELECOPIER 7011 ; 9-18-89 3:32PM ; 202 647 0244+ ;#11 09/18/89 15:32 202 647 0244 PA/PRS 011/016 - 10 - HOPEFUL PRONOUNCEMENTS ON ARMS REDUCTIONS, AND HAS SLOWED THE OVERSEAS ADVENTURISM WHICH DID so MUCH TO GALVANIZE WESTERN SOLIDARITY IN THE EARLY 1980s. AND HEREIN LIES A DANGER TO WESTERN INTERESTS: THAT WITH A PERCEPTION GROWING AMONG THE WESTERN PUBLIC THAT THE SOVIET THREAT HAS DIMINISHED, THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THE MEMBER STATES OF THE NATO ALLIANCE TO COMPETE IN EXPANDING THEIR RELATIONS WITH THE EAST. ALREADY, WE ARE HEARING IT SAID THAT WE NEED TO TAKE MEASURES TO INSURE THE SUCCESS OF GORBACHEV'S REFORMS. THIS, HOWEVER, IS NOT THE TASK OF AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY, NOR SHOULD IT BE THAT OF OUR WESTERN PARTNERS. OUR TASK, AFTER ALL, IS TO DEVISE POLICIES WHICH WILL SERVE OUR INTERESTS WHETHER MR. GORBACHEY SUCCEEDS OR FAILS. AND OUR COMMON GOAL OUGHT TO BE THE MAINTENANCE OF THE SECURITY CONSENSUS WHICH HAS SERVED THE WEST so WELL OVER THE PAST 40 YEARS UNTIL THE PROCESS OF DEMOCRATIC REFORM IN THE EAST HAS TRULY BECOME IRREVERSIBLE. THIS WILL BE EASIER SAID THAN DONE. IF THE WESTERN TENDENCY TOWARDS UNILATERALISM ON TRADE MATTERS IS MATCHED IN THE FIELD OF SECURITY RELATIONS WITH THE EAST BLOC, THE SOVIETS MAY BE ABLE TO PLAY NATO MEMBERS OFF AGAINST EACH OTHER, AND OBTAIN TRADE AND ARMS CONTROL CONCESSIONS WITHOUT UNDERTAKING THE KIND OF SYSTEMIC REFORMS WHICH ALONE CAN MAKE FOR A STABLE RCV BY:XEROX TELECOPIER 7011 ; 9-18-89 3:32PM ; 202 647 0244-> ;#11 09/18/89 15:32 202 647 0244 PA/PRS 011/016 - 10 - HOPEFUL PRONOUNCEMENTS ON ARMS REDUCTIONS, AND HAS SLOWED THE OVERSEAS ADVENTURISM WHICH DID so MUCH TO GALVANIZE WESTERN SOLIDARITY IN THE EARLY 1980s. AND HEREIN LIES A DANGER TO WESTERN INTERESTS: THAT WITH A PERCEPTION GROWING AMONG THE WESTERN PUBLIC THAT THE SOVIET THREAT HAS DIMINISHED, THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THE MEMBER STATES OF THE NATO ALLIANCE TO COMPETE IN EXPANDING THEIR RELATIONS WITH THE EAST. ALREADY, WE ARE HEARING IT SAID THAT. WE NEED TO TAKE MEASURES TO INSURE THE SUCCESS OF GORBACHEY'S REFORMS. THIS, HOWEVER, IS NOT THE TASK OF AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY, NOR SHOULD IT BE THAT OF OUR WESTERN PARTNERS. OUR TASK, AFTER ALL, IS TO DEVISE POLICIES WHICH WILL SERVE OUR INTERESTS WHETHER MR. GORBACHEY SUCCEEDS OR FAILS. AND OUR COMMON GOAL OUGHT TO BE THE MAINTENANCE OF THE SECURITY CONSENSUS WHICH HAS SERVED THE WEST so WELL OVER THE PAST 40 YEARS UNTIL THE PROCESS OF DEMOCRATIC REFORM IN THE EAST HAS TRULY BECOME IRREVERSIBLE. THIS WILL BE EASIER SAID THAN DONE. IF THE WESTERN TENDENCY TOWARDS UNILATERALISM ON TRADE MATTERS IS MATCHED IN THE FIELD OF SECURITY RELATIONS WITH THE EAST BLOC, THE SOVIETS MAY BE ABLE TO PLAY NATO MEMBERS OFF AGAINST EACH OTHER, AND OBTAIN TRADE AND ARMS CONTROL CONCESSIONS WITHOUT UNDERTAKING THE KIND OF SYSTEMIC REFORMS WHICH ALONE CAN MAKE FOR A STABLE RCV BY:XEROX TELECOPIER 7011 9-18-89 3:33PM 202 647 0244- ;#12 09/18/89 15:33 202 647 0244 PA/PRS 012/016 - 11 - AND CONFIDENT RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EAST AND WEST. OBVIOUSLY, IT IS IN THE EUROPEANS' INTEREST AS MUCH, IF NOT MORE THAN OUR OWN, TO AVOID BANKROLLING MERELY COSMETIC SOVIET REFORMS OR TO REACH ARMS CONTROL AGREEMENTS WHICH UNDERMINE NATO'S ABILITY TO DETER AGGRESSION. AFTER ALL, THE EUROPEANS ARE CONDEMNED BY GEOGRAPHY TO LIVE IN THE SHADOW OF SOVIET MILITARY POWER WHETHER OR NOT THE SOVIET UNION IN THE LONG RUN CHANGES AS MUCH AS ALL OF US HOPE. AND WHILE THE U.S. COMMITMENT TO NATO WILL REMAIN SECURE, IT IS INCREASINGLY INCUMBENT UPON OUR EUROPEAN ALLIES -- PARTICULARLY AS THEY UNIFY THEIR ECONOMIES - TO ASSUME GREATER RESPONSIBILITY FOR THEIR OWN DEFENSE AND TO ESTABLISH A MORE EQUITABLE DIVISION OF LABOR WITHIN THE ALLIANCE THAT REFLECTS THE RELATIVE STRENGTH OF OUR ECONOMIES. THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL REASON WHY THE EUROPEANS WILL HAVE TO BECOME MORE RESPONSIBLE FOR MANAGING THEIR OWN INTERESTS. WE ARE NOW DISCOVERING THAT THE PROCESS OF REFORM IN THE SOVIET BLOC AND THE RELAXATION OF SOVIET CONTROL OVER EASTERN EUROPE ARE BRINGING LONG-SUPPRESSED ETHNIC ANTAGONISMS AND NATIONAL RIVALRIES TO THE SURFACE, AND PUTTING THE GERMAN QUESTION BACK ON THE INTERNATIONAL AGENDA. WHILE AMERICAN POLICY CAN HAVE A STEADYING INFLUENCE IN DEALING WITH THESE QUESTIONS, IT IS ULTIMATELY THE EUROPEANS THEMSELVES WHO HAVE THE PRINCIPAL RCV BY:XEROX TELECOPIER 7011 ; 9-18-89 3:33PM ; 202 647 0244-> ;#12 09/18/89 15:33 202 647 0244 PA/PRS 4 012/016 - 11 - AND CONFIDENT RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EAST AND WEST. OBVIOUSLY, IT IS IN THE EUROPEANS' INTEREST AS MUCH, IF NOT MORE THAN OUR OWN, TO AVOID BANKROLLING MERELY COSMETIC SOVIET REFORMS OR TO REACH ARMS CONTROL AGREEMENTS WHICH UNDERMINE NATO'S ABILITY TO DETER AGGRESSION. AFTER ALL, THE EUROPEANS ARE CONDEMNED BY GEOGRAPHY TO LIVE IN THE SHADOW OF SOVIET MILITARY POWER WHETHER OR NOT THE SOVIET UNION IN THE LONG RUN CHANGES AS MUCH AS ALL OF US HOPE. AND WHILE THE U.S. COMMITMENT TO NATO WILL REMAIN SECURE, IT IS INCREASINGLY INCUMBENT UPON OUR EUROPEAN ALLIES -- PARTICULARLY AS THEY UNIFY THEIR ECONOMIES - TO ASSUME GREATER RESPONSIBILITY FOR THEIR OWN DEFENSE AND TO ESTABLISH A MORE EQUITABLE DIVISION OF LABOR WITHIN THE ALLIANCE THAT REFLECTS THE RELATIVE STRENGTH OF OUR ECONOMIES. THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL REASON WHY THE EUROPEANS WILL HAVE TO BECOME MORE RESPONSIBLE FOR MANAGING THEIR OWN INTERESTS. WE ARE NOW DISCOVERING THAT THE PROCESS OF REFORM IN THE SOVIET BLOC AND THE RELAXATION OF SOVIET CONTROL OVER EASTERN EUROPE ARE BRINGING LONG-SUPPRESSED ETHNIC ANTAGONISMS AND NATIONAL RIVALRIES TO THE SURFACE, AND PUTTING THE GERMAN QUESTION BACK ON THE INTERNATIONAL AGENDA. WHILE AMERICAN POLICY CAN HAVE A STEADYING INFLUENCE IN DEALING WITH THESE QUESTIONS, IT IS ULTIMATELY THE EUROPEANS THEMSELVES WHO HAVE THE PRINCIPAL RCV BY:XEROX TELECOPIER 7011 ; 9-18-89 3:34PM ; 202 647 02449 ;#13 09/18/89 15:33 202 647 0244 PA/PRS 4 013/016 - 12 - POLITICAL STAKE IN MAKING THE TRANSITION TO A NEW AND UNDIVIDED EUROPE A PEACEFUL AND ORDERLY ONE. MOREOVER, THE COOPERATIVE AND MULTILATERAL APPROACH WHICH HAS MADE FOR A PROSPEROUS AND SECURE WESTERN EUROPE IN THE POST-WAR PERIOD WILL BE KEY TO OVERCOMING THE INHERENT INSTABILITY AND UNPREDICTABILITY OF THE MULTIPOLAR ERA INTO WHICH THE WHOLE OF EUROPE IS NOW ENTERING. THE UNITED STATES WILL ALSO FACE A NEW SET OF CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT DECADE IN ITS RELATIONS WITH THE DEVELOPING WORLD. HERE, TOO, THE POST-WAR STRUGGLE BETWEEN LIBERAL DEMOCRACY AND COMMUNIST OR STATIST IDEOLOGIES FOR THE HEARTS. AND MINDS OF THE PEOPLES OF THE THIRD WORLD APPEARS TO BE MOVING IN WAYS FAVORABLE TO THE WEST. BUT WE SHOULD BE REALISTIC ABOUT THE UNDERLYING MEANING OF THE TREND TOWARDS DEMOCRACY AND THE MOVEMENT TOWARDS FREE MARKET REFORMS WHICH WE ARE WITNESSING TODAY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DEVELOPING WORLD. THE FACT IS THAT THE TREND IS AGAINST INCUMBENT GOVERNMENTS EVERYWHERE, OF ALL POLITICAL STRIPES - GOVERNMENTS WHICH ARE OVERWHELMED BY THE PROBLEMS OF OVERPOPULATION, UNEMPLOYMENT AND STAGNANT ECONOMIC GROWTH. CLEARLY, MANY OF THE PROBLEMS OF THE DEVELOPING NATION:- ARE OF THEIR OWN MAKING. BUT IF THEY ARE WILLING TO UNDERTAKE THE NECESSARY REFORMS, WE IN THE WEST MUST RESPOND WITH CREATIVE APPROACHES TO THE DEBT PROBLEM AND WITH A LEVEL OF INVESTMENT RCV BY:XEROX TELECOPIER 7011 ; 9-18-89 3:34PM ; 202 647 0244-> ;#13 09/18/89 15:33 202 647 0244 PA/PRS 1 013/016 - 12 - POLITICAL STAKE IN MAKING THE TRANSITION TO A NEW AND UNDIVIDED EUROPE A PEACEFUL AND ORDERLY ONE. MOREOVER, THE COOPERATIVE AND MULTILATERAL APPROACH WHICH HAS MADE FOR A PROSPEROUS AND SECURE WESTERN EUROPE IN THE POST-WAR PERIOD WILL BE KEY TO OVERCOMING THE INHERENT INSTABILITY AND UNPREDICTABILITY OF THE MULTIPOLAR ERA INTO WHICH THE WHOLE OF EUROPE IS NOW ENTERING. THE UNITED STATES WILL ALSO FACE A NEW SET OF CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT DECADE IN ITS RELATIONS WITH THE DEVELOPING WORLD. HERE, TOO, THE POST-WAR STRUGGLE BETWEEN LIBERAL DEMOCRACY AND COMMUNIST OR STATIST IDEOLOGIES FOR THE HEARTS. AND MINDS OF THE PEOPLES OF THE THIRD WORLD APPEARS TO BE MOVING IN WAYS FAVORABLE TO THE WEST. BUT WE SHOULD BE REALISTIC ABOUT THE UNDERLYING MEANING OF THE TREND TOWARDS DEMOCRACY AND THE MOVEMENT TOWARDS FREE MARKET REFORMS WHICH WE ARE WITNESSING TODAY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DEVELOPING WORLD. THE FACT IS THAT THE TREND IS AGAINST INCUMBENT GOVERNMENTS EVERYWHERE, OF ALL POLITICAL STRIPES - GOVERNMENTS WHICH ARE OVERWHELMED BY THE PROBLEMS OF OVERPOPULATION, UNEMPLOYMENT AND STAGNANT ECONOMIC GROWTH. CLEARLY, MANY OF THE PROBLEMS OF THE DEVELOPING NATION:- ARE OF THEIR OWN MAKING. BUT IF THEY ARE WILLING TO UNDERTAKE THE NECESSARY REFORMS, WE IN THE WEST MUST RESPOND WITH CREATIVE APPROACHES TO THE DEBT PROBLEM AND WITH A LEVEL OF INVESTMENT RCV BY:XEROX TELECOPIER 7011 ; 9-18-89 3:34PM ; 202 647 0244-> ;#14 09/18/89 15:34 202 647 0244 PA/PRS 014/016 - 13 - WHICH MANY OF THESE COUNTRIES FORMERLY SHUNNED BUT NOW URGENTLY SOLICIT. IF WE SHOULD FAIL TO RESPOND ADEQUATELY TO THE DEBT CRISIS, WE MAY FIND THE TREND TOWARDS DEMOCRACY IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD TO BE SHORT-LIVED. WE MAY ALSO FIND THAT SOME OF THE FRAGILE NATION-STATES OF THE THIRD WORLD WILL COLLAPSE INTO THEIR ETHNIC OR REGIONAL COMPONENTS, WHILE THOSE WHO ARE WELL-ARMED MAY SEEK EXTERNAL SOLUTIONS TO THEIR INTERNAL PROBLEMS. AND WE MAY FIND INSTABILITY IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD BROUGHT TO THE VERY DOORSTEP OF THE WEST, BOTH IN EUROPE AND THE UNITED STATES. FINALLY, THERE IS A FURTHER HOST OF PROBLEMS WE ARE GOING TO FACE AS WE MOVE INTO THE NEXT CENTURY WHICH WILL EXCEED THE ABILITY OF THE U.S. OR ANY SINGLE NATION TO RESOLVE, AND WHICH WILL, THEREFORE, REQUIRE A COLLECTIVE APPROACH. THESE INCLUDE THE PROBLEMS OF WEAPONS PROLIFERATION, INTERNATIONAL DRUG-TRAFFICKING, TERRORISM AND THE IMPERILLED STATE OF THE WORLD ENVIRONMENT. THESE ARE PROBLEMS WHICH DO NOT RESPECT BORDERS AND FOR WHICH NATIONAL OR STRICTLY UNILATERAL SOLUTIONS DO NOT EXIST. IF MIKHAIL GORBACHEV IS SINCERE WHEN HE SAYS THAT WE HAVE TO SET ASIDE OUR IDEOLOGICAL DIFFERENCES AND MILITARY COMPETITION IN ORDER TO ADDRESS THE FUNDAMENTAL THREATS TO THE SURVIVAL OF THE PLANET, HE WILL FIND IN THE UNITED STATES A RCV BY:XEROX TELECOPIER 7011 ; 9-18-89 3:34PM ; 202 647 0244-> ;#14 09/18/89 15:34 202 647 0244 PA/PRS 014/016 - 13 - WHICH MANY OF THESE COUNTRIES FORMERLY SHUNNED BUT NOW URGENTLY SOLICIT. IF WE SHOULD FAIL TO RESPOND ADEQUATELY TO THE DEBT CRISIS, WE MAY FIND THE TREND TOWARDS DEMOCRACY IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD TO BE SHORT-LIVED. WE MAY ALSO FIND THAT SOME OF THE FRAGILE NATION-STATES OF THE THIRD WORLD WILL COLLAPSE INTO THEIR ETHNIC OR REGIONAL COMPONENTS, WHILE THOSE WHO ARE WELL-ARMED MAY SEEK EXTERNAL SOLUTIONS TO THEIR INTERNAL PROBLEMS. AND WE MAY FIND INSTABILITY IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD BROUGHT TO THE VERY DOORSTEP OF THE WEST, BOTH IN EUROPE AND THE UNITED STATES. FINALLY, THERE IS A FURTHER HOST OF PROBLEMS WE ARE GOING TO FACE AS WE MOVE INTO THE NEXT CENTURY WHICH WILL EXCEED THE ABILITY OF THE U.S. OR ANY SINGLE NATION TO RESOLVE, AND WHICH WILL, THEREFORE, REQUIRE A COLLECTIVE APPROACH. THESE INCLUDE THE PROBLEMS OF WEAPONS PROLIFERATION, INTERNATIONAL DRUG-TRAFFICKING, TERRORISM AND THE IMPERILLED STATE OF THE WORLD ENVIRONMENT. THESE ARE PROBLEMS WHICH DO NOT RESPECT BORDERS AND FOR WHICH NATIONAL OR STRICTLY UNILATERAL SOLUTIONS DO NOT EXIST. IF MIKHAIL GORBACHEV IS SINCERE WHEN HE SAYS THAT WE HAVE TO SET ASIDE OUR IDEOLOGICAL DIFFERENCES AND MILITARY COMPETITION IN ORDER TO ADDRESS THE FUNDAMENTAL THREATS TO THE SURVIVAL OF THE PLANET, HE WILL FIND IN THE UNITED STATES A 9-18-89 3:35PM ; 202 647 0244-> ;#15 09/18/89 15:35 202 647 0244 PA/PRS 015/016 - 14 - READY PARTNER. BUT MOST OF THE PROBLEMS TO WHICH I REFERRED -- PROBLEMS WHICH ARE LIKELY TO DOMINATE THE INTERNATIONAL AGENDA IN COMING YEARS - DO NOT LEND THEMSELVES TO SOLUTION IN A STRICTLY EAST-WEST FRAMEWORK. TAKE, FOR EXAMPLE, THE PROBLEMS OF POLLUTION AND WEAPONS PROLIFERATION. WE IN THE INDUSTRIALIZED WORLD NOW FIND OURSELVES IN THE AWKWARD POSITION OF ASKING THE DEVELOPING NATIONS TO ESCHEW METHODS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT WHICH WE OURSELVES PRACTICED IN THE NOT-TOO-DISTANT PAST, AND WHICH ACCOUNT IN PART FOR OUR CURRENT PROSPERITY. SIMILARLY, WE ARE ASKING MANY OF THESE SAME NATIONS TO FOREGO THE PRODUCTION OF WEAPONS WHICH WE OURSELVES POSSESS, AND WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO OUR SECURITY IN A DANGEROUS AND UNPREDICTABLE WORLD. CLEARLY, EAST-WEST COOPERATION WILL BE FUNDAMENTAL TO RESOLVING MANY OF THE UNDERLYING POLITICAL AND REGIONAL TENSIONS WHICH ARE AT THE ROOT OF TRANSNATIONAL PROBLEMS SUCH AS TERRORISM AND WEAPONS PROLIFERATION. BUT THE CHALLENGE OF ERADICATING DRUG-TRAFFICKING AND ELIMINATING THE THREAT TO THE WORLD ENVIRONMENT, IN PARTICULAR, ARE INTERNATIONAL IN SCOPE AND WILL REQUIRE THE COOPERATIVE EFFORTS OF THOSE NATIONS WEALTHY ENOUGH TO MOBILIZE THE RESOURCES NECESSARY TO THEIR SOLUTION. 9-18-89 ::35PM 202 647 0244-> ;#15 09/18/89 15:35 202 647 0244 PA/PRS 015/016 - 14 - READY PARTNER. BUT MOST OF THE PROBLEMS TO WHICH I REFERRED - PROBLEMS WHICH ARE LIKELY TO DOMINATE THE INTERNATIONAL AGENDA IN COMING YEARS - DO NOT LEND THEMSELVES TO SOLUTION IN A STRICTLY EAST-WEST FRAMEWORK. TAKE, FOR EXAMPLE, THE PROBLEMS OF POLLUTION AND WEAPONS PROLIFERATION. WE IN THE INDUSTRIALIZED WORLD NOW FIND OURSELVES IN THE AWKWARD POSITION OF ASKING THE DEVELOPING NATIONS TO ESCHEW METHODS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT WHICH WE OURSELVES PRACTICED IN THE NOT-TOO-DISTANT PAST, AND WHICH ACCOUNT IN PART FOR OUR CURRENT PROSPERITY. SIMILARLY, WE ARE ASKING MANY OF THESE SAME NATIONS TO FOREGO THE PRODUCTION OF WEAPONS WHICH WE OURSELVES POSSESS, AND WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO OUR SECURITY IN A DANGEROUS AND UNPREDICTABLE WORLD. CLEARLY, EAST-WEST COOPERATION WILL BE FUNDAMENTAL TO RESOLVING MANY OF THE UNDERLYING POLITICAL AND REGIONAL TENSIONS WHICH ARE AT THE ROOT OF TRANSNATIONAL PROBLEMS SUCH AS TERRORISM AND WEAPONS PROLIFERATION. BUT THE CHALLENGE OF ERADICATING DRUG-TRAFFICKING AND ELIMINATING THE THREAT TO THE WORLD ENVIRONMENT, IN PARTICULAR, ARE INTERNATIONAL IN SCOPE AND WILL REQUIRE THE COOPERATIVE EFFORTS OF THOSE NATIONS WEALTHY ENOUGH TO MOBILIZE THE RESOURCES NECESSARY TO THEIR SOLUTION. RCV BY:XEROX TELECOPIER 7011 ; 9.-18-89 3:36PM ; 202 647 0244-> ;#16 09/18/89 15:35 202 647 0244 PA/PRS 016/016 - 15 - I HAVE NOT INTENDED TO PAINT A BLEAK PICTURE OF THE TYPE OF INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT THAT AWAITS US IN THE NEXT DECADE AND INTO THE NEXT CENTURY. THE PERIOD OF TRANSITION THROUGH WHICH WE ARE NOW PASSING CAN BE MANAGED SUCCESSFULLY IF WE BUT UNDERSTAND THE FACT THAT WE ARE FACING A DIFFERENT SET OF CHALLENGES FROM THOSE TO WHICH WE HAVE BECOME ACCUSTOMED OVER THE PAST 40 YEARS. WE ARE MILITARILY STRONG TODAY. WE ARE STRONG ECONOMICALLY. AND WE ARE ON THE VERGE OF SEEING OUR DEMOCRATIC VALUES TRIUMPH IN PLACES WHICH WOULD HARDLY HAVE BEEN IMAGINABLE ONLY A FEW YEARS AGO. BUT THE POSITIVE AND INDEED REVOLUTIONARY CHANGES WHICH ARE SWEEPING THE WORLD TODAY ARE REVERSIBLE, AND THEY CANNOT BE SUSTAINED BY THE EFFORTS OF THE UNITED STATES ALONE. THEY CAN, HOWEVER, BE SUSTAINED, AND THE DANGERS WHICH EXIST TURNED INTO OPPORTUNITIES, IF THE WESTERN DEMOCRACIES RENEW THEIR COMMITMENT TO A COLLECTIVE AND COOPERATIVE APPROACH TO THE MAJOR ISSUES WHICH CONFRONT THEM. AND THIS WILL REQUIRE AMERICAN LEADERSHIP OF THE HIGHEST ORDER. RCV BY:XEROX TELECOPIER 7011 ; 9-18-89 3:36PM ; 202 647 0244-> ;#16 09/18/89 15:35 202 647 0244 PA/PRS 1 016/016 - 15 - I HAVE NOT INTENDED TO PAINT A BLEAK PICTURE OF THE TYPE OF INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT THAT AWAITS US IN THE NEXT DECADE AND INTO THE NEXT CENTURY. THE PERIOD OF TRANSITION THROUGH WHICH WE ARE NOW PASSING CAN BE MANAGED SUCCESSFULLY IF WE BUT UNDERSTAND THE FACT THAT WE ARE FACING A DIFFERENT SET OF CHALLENGES FROM THOSE TO WHICH WE HAVE BECOME ACCUSTOMED OVER THE PAST 40 YEARS. WE ARE MILITARILY STRONG TODAY. WE ARE STRONG ECONOMICALLY. AND WE ARE ON THE VERGE OF SEEING OUR DEMOCRATIC VALUES TRIUMPH IN PLACES WHICH WOULD HARDLY HAVE BEEN IMAGINABLE ONLY A FEW YEARS AGO. BUT THE POSITIVE AND INDEED REVOLUTIONARY CHANGES WHICH ARE SWEEPING THE WORLD TODAY ARE REVERSIBLE, AND THEY CANNOT BE SUSTAINED BY THE EFFORTS OF THE UNITED STATES ALONE. THEY CAN, HOWEVER, BE SUSTAINED, AND THE DANGERS WHICH EXIST TURNED INTO OPPORTUNITIES, IF THE WESTERN DEMOCRACIES RENEW THEIR COMMITMENT TO A COLLECTIVE AND COOPERATIVE APPROACH TO THE MAJOR ISSUES WHICH CONFRONT THEM. AND THIS WILL REQUIRE AMERICAN LEADERSHIP OF THE HIGHEST ORDER. Typical* Procedure for Inviting a The Helsinki Accords and Family Visits Contacts and Regular Meeting on the Basis of Family Ties is Person from the USA to the USSR Few exit/entrance the first of the Human Contacts provisions agreed to by the thirty- points exist. An five member States of the Conference on Security and Cooperation Alaskan who wants in Europe. *Procedure may vary from one location to another depending on local authorities to visit Irkutsk needs to fly via Moscow. According to the Helsinki Final Act: "the participating States will favourably consider applications for travel on a regular basis if desired, in order to visit members of their families. cases of urgent necessity - such USSR relative or Send permit, visa Work with travel as serious illness or death - will be given priority treatment." friend invites relative form, photos, pass- agent to set up or friend from USA port copy, $15 money itinerary. Recommendations for liberalized US-USSR for visit. order to consulate. travel procedures: American writes to US relative applies Wait 14 days for visa. 1. Establish a U.S.-Soviet bilateral working group on family visits. Soviet consulate for for passport. 2. Establish a procedure for quick action in case of serious illness forms or contacts or death. certain travel agents. 3. Ease procedures and requirements for private visits; eliminate the 4-6 month-long invitation (vyzov) process. Wait 3 weeks Why are these US relative Travel to USSR via 4. Ease travel requirements for Soviet citizens, especially elimi- for forms. steps necessary? completes visa Moscow. application. nate the 200 ruble visa/foreign passport fee. Eliminate need for Soviet citizens to appear in person to apply for a US visa. 5. Re-examine criteria of US visa denial to Soviet citizens who fit Complete application Send permit to apply Exchange $1.65 for 1 an arbitrary profile of potential defectors. form in triplicate for БАНК for a visa to US ruble. 6. Open up more entry/exit points into the Soviet Union and each adult. Include relative. open additional cities and regions in each country. Ease travel children with adult. If refused, procedures for related Alaskan and Siberian natives living as wait 6 months little as 3 miles apart across the Bering Strait. Send form, three photos, and $15 to re-apply Receive good news Take train to city 7. Repeal Soviet decrees which intimidate or restrict visitors. after 90 days. Au- where relatives live. money order to thorities issue permit 8. Encourage airlines to increase availability of flights, including Soviet consulate. for visitor. low-fare and charter flights. 9. Improve mail and telephone communication. Remove prohibi- Complete separate According to Soviet Meet at last! tive duties from gift parcels. applications to visit law decision relatives in other should be made Visits Problems? cities or for tour. within 30 days. To register complaints about visits, contact the following govern- Why? ment agencies. Please send a copy of your complaint to VISA. Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe Wait 30 days. Authorities measure (U.S. Congress Helsinki Commission) size of living space & House Annex #2, Room 237 inspect suitability. Washington, D.C. 20515 and Soviet Desk Consulate stamps Send form, known Relative or friend U.S. Department of State form; returns to you as vyzov, to relative takes form to local Washington, D.C. 20520 and disclaims know or friend in USSR. militia (police) or edge of its future OVIR. VISA PO Box 2361 Berkeley California 94702 USA Typical* Procedure for Inviting a Person from the USSR to the USA *Procedure may vary from one location to another depending on local authorities USA relative or friend Travel to Moscow. Aeroflot booked one decides to invite Sleep in train station. relative or friend from АЭРОФЛОТ Line up at 4 AM in Provide 2 photos, year in advance. Get rain or snow at US passport and 12 standby reservation Embassy for US visa. rubles for US visa. USSR for visit. two weeks hence. Return home. Return to Moscow. Write to Soviet con- 60 rubles per Pay 200 rubles for BAHK sulate for forms or Couldn't this be done Stand in line 6 hours new passport. Listen month is a 200 to lecture about at bank. Bank runs contact certain travel through the mail? typical pension rubles out of dollars. agents. proper behavior. Note that the 200 ruble temporary exit visa is useless Wait 3 weeks Give up internal if the us denies a visa Return to bank. for forms. passport at oblast (which sometimes happens) Exchange maximum CCCP office. of 210 rubles into dollars (about $330). If refused, Average monthly Complete form. If wait 6 months Wait 30 days. wage is 180 rubles Offered first class using travel agent to re-apply Receive good news. ticket for 2400 rubles pay $35-$125 and skip Going to USA! - refuse. 4 steps. Go to notary public, Why? Interview with KGB. Pay 1400 rubles to then to county clerk Answer questions To avoid much of this, final US destination. Z. Z to certify notary. regarding politics, the American can pay Sleep in airport military service, etc. dollars for a flight on several days. a Western airline Send form and $25 Why is validity of Workplace and city On the way to the money order to officials answer USA! your signature impor- consulate. questionnaires. tant in this case? Wait 30 days. Militia out of Free baggage economy excursion fare: necessary forms. 10kg carryon + one 32kg bag. Wait one week. Full fare:10 kg carryon + two 32 kg bags Consulate stamps Why is this Take form to militia. Sorry, return flights form; returns to you sold out for 4 months. and disclaims knowl- stamp necessary? I can put your name edge of its future fate. DOI VISA is a non-partisan, non-profit, human rights organization on a waiting list. which works toward one goal: the basic right of millions of relatives in the USA, Baltic States, and USSR to exchange regular home visits. Send form, known Relative or friend Pay advocate (lawyer) as vyzov, to relative takes form to local 12 rubles to complete For more information, including Soviet applications to and from Pay Aeroflot $108 each for excess or friend in USSR. militia (police) or additional form about USSR, send $1 for postage & handling to: baggage. OVIR. self and family. VISA, PO Box 2361, Berkeley, CA 94702 USA (415) 540-8472 An Appeal for Freedom of Travel Between the United States And the Soviet Union For Millions of Relatives On the Occasion of the Fortieth Anniversary Of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights Обрашение C Призывом Ha Право Свободного Передвижения Миллионов Родственников Живуших B Соединённых Штатах Америки И B CoBeTcKoM Союзе K Сороковой Годовщине Всеобщей Декларации по Правам Человека Обрашение C Призывом Ha Право Свободного Передвижения Миллионов Родственников Живуших B Соединённых Штатах Америки и B CoBeTcKoM Союзе K Сороковой Годовщине Всеобщей Декларации по Правам Человека Генеральному секретарю Коммунистической партии Союза Советских Социалистических Республик, и государства-участники будут Президенту Соединённых Штатов Америки. благожелательно рассматривать просьбы 0 поездках. если этого пожелают, регулярной C оединённые Штаты ЯВЛЯЮТСЯ по существу ocHoBe ДЛЯ встреч C членами своих семей. B страной иммигрантов, миллионы которых случаях срочной надобности - таких, KaK прибыли тремя большими волнами C серьезная болезнь, смерть, -80 внеочередном территорий, которые занимает B настоящее время порядке. Советский Союз. Каждая группа оставляла позади Американский ceHaTop Деннис Деконсини членов СВОИХ семей. подитожил важность посещения родственников Миллионы американцев утверждают что они следующим образом: являются выходцами C территорий CoBeTcKoΓo Сою "Цивилизация зиждется Ha единстве 3a. Около трёх миллионов американцев человеческой семьи. без семьи ne было бы армянского, белорусского, Эстонского, немецкого, .Судьба наций TecHo связана еврейского, латвийского, литовского, pyccKoΓo, C жизнеспособиостью и стабильностью семьи." украинского и других происхождений всё ещё продолжают общаться CO своими родственниками. Для родителей, детей, бабушек и дедушек, M Ы 3HaeM KaK Советский Союз и Россия B течепие истории препятствовали KoHTaKTaM братьев, сестёр, двоюродных братьев и сестёр, между ЛЮДЬМИ по другую cTopoHy границы. тётей и дядей и даже дальних родственников Ho Hac обнадёживают последние перемены B необходимо поддерживать постоянное человеческое политике CoBeTcKoΓo Союза, обещающие общение между собой. борльшую открытость и контакты C другими странами. Сейчас, BO BpeMeHa HoBoΓo мышления, мы 10 декабря 1988 года отмечается сороковая годовщина принятия Всеобщей должны соедипить наши усилия ПО поиску Декларации ПО Правам Человека конструктивных Mep по избежанию конфроптации Генеральной Ассамблеей Соединённых Наций. и для поиска возможностей для примирения и Статья 13 (2) Каждый человек имеет право взаимного понимания. HaM необходимо искать и покидать любую cTpaHy, включая свою созидать, взяв 3a ocHoBy наши взаимные интересы, собственную, u возвращаться 8 Свою cTpaHy.. и сглаживать наши различия. B Заключительном aKTe Хельсинкского Мы, KaK и весь мир, апплодируем прогрессу, совещания, подписанного B 1975 году, Советский который был достигнут нашими странами B Союз и Соединённые Штаты, BMecTe C тридцатью области сокращения вооружений. Мы 3HaeM, что тремя другими странами, признали: благодаря гласности и перестройке MHoΓoe Государства-участники признают всеобщее меняется B CoBeTcKoM Союзе B лучшую cTopoHy. значение прав человека и основных свобод, включая права человека высказывать своё мпение и уважение которых является существенным право эмигрировать. фактором мира, справедливости u Люди B наших страпах верят, что придер- благополучия, необходимых ДЛЯ обеспечения живание принципов, изложенных BO Всеобщей развития дружественных отношений u Декларации ПО Правам Человека, приведёт K более сотрудничества. стабильным, надёжным и демократичным Вобласти прав человека и основных свобод правительствам. Уважение K правам отдельного государства-участники будут действовать B человека приведёт K уважению прав наций. соответствии C целями и принципами Устава OOH и Всеобщей декларацией прав человека. 2 An Appeal for Freedom of Travel Between the United States and the Soviet Union For Millions of Relatives on the Occasion of the Fortieth Anniversary Of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights To the General Secretary of the Communist Party and President of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics; and the President of the United States of America: the participating States will favourably consider T he United States is basically a country of applications for travel on a regular basis if desired, immigrants, millions of whom came from in order to visit members of their families cases of the present territory of the Soviet Union, urgent necessity - such as serious illness or death mostly during the course of three great waves. will be given priority treatment. Each group left relatives behind. U.S. Senator Dennis DeConcini summed up Millions of Americans claim ancestry from the importance of family visits in these words: what is now the Soviet Union. About three "Civilization rests upon the integrity of the human million Americans of Armenian, Byelorussian, family without family there could be no Estonian, German, Jewish, Latvian, Lithuanian, civilization The fate of nations is intimately Russian, Ukrainian, and other ethnic back- linked to the vitality and stability of the family." grounds still keep contact with their relatives. Parents, children, grandparents, brothers, sisters, cousins, aunts, uncles, as well as distant W e are familiar with the historic practice relatives, need to maintain regular human of the Soviet Union and its predecessor contact with each other. to limit contact with people outside its borders. We are encouraged by recent policy changes in the Soviet Union which promise more D ecember 10, 1988 marks the Fortieth openness and ties with other countries. Anniversary of the adoption and procla- In this era of new thinking, we must join mation of the Universal Declaration of together to search for constructive ways to avoid Human Rights by the General Assembly of the confrontation and to find opportunities for United Nations. Article 13 (2) of the Declaration conciliation and mutual understanding. confirms the right of individuals to travel: We must search for, and build on our common Everyone has the right to leave any country, interests and work to bridge our differences. including his own, and to return to his country. We join the world in applauding the progress In the 1975 Helsinki Final Act, the Soviet of our countries in the area of arms reduction. Union and United States, along with 33 other We note the changes in the Soviet Union due to countries, agreed to the following provisions: glasnost and perestroika including improvements The participating States recognize the universal in the right of people to voice their opinions, and significance of human rights and fundamental free- the right to emigrate. doms, respect for which is an essential factor for the Some individuals in our countries believe that peace, justice and well-being necessary to ensure the adherence to the principles expressed in the development of friendly relations and co-operation Universal Declaration of Human Rights will In the field of human rights and fundamental result in more stable, secure, and more demo- freedoms, the participating States will act in cratic governments. Respect for human rights of conformity with the purposes and principles of the the individual will carry over to respect of the Charter of the United Nations and with the Universal rights of nations. Declaration of Human Rights. 3 У величение KoHTaKToB между родственниками y Hac вызывает TpeBoΓy произвольность B oTKa3e C течением времени должно привести K из- B визах. Американцы получают oTKa3 B туристских менению прошлых враждебных отношений. визах для встречи C родственниками; советским Настоящий, прочный мир, столь необходимый B людям отказывают B праве путешествовать 3a ядерный BeK, может наступить тогда B обозримом границу произвольным решением местных офици- будущем. альных лиц; советским гражданам отказывают Руководители Соединённых Штатов Америки и B американских визах. CoBeTcKoΓo Союза MoΓyT быть примером для Свобода путешествий должна быть правом, остальных cTpaH, каким они ЯВЛЯЮТСЯ B области гарантированным 3aKoHoM, a He привелегией. контроля 3a вооружением, культурном обмене, под- Миллионы семей мечтают 0 дне, когда простые держивая права членов семей посещать друг друга. люди He будут-зависеть OT прилива и отлива B 1987 году Американский KoHΓpeccMeH политических соображений. Кристофер Смит предложил резолюцию, утвержда- B 1985 году, перед Женевской встречей B ющую, что содействие беспрепятственному Bepxax, президент Рональд Рейган сказал: общению семей является необходимой частью "Посещения родственников, KaK основная американской политики ПО отношению K форма культурного обмена, являются хорошим CoBeTcKoMy Союзу. B предисловии OH утверждает: фундаментом ДЛЯ этого мира." Я полягаю, что право Ha семейные визиты есть ocHoBHoe право человека u советские Γ енеральный секретарь Михаил Сергеевич реформы способны потенциально улучшить Горбачёв выразил сходное мнение B интервью, атмосферу между двумя сверхдержавами. данном B 1987 году: "Непосредственный KoHTaKT между людьми очень важен. Без HeΓo, M ы смотрим C энтузиазмом Ha значительные без широкого общения и понимания между улучшения B выдаче виз Советским людьми, политика He может MHoΓoΓo дать." государством C Tex пор KaK Кристофер B своём заявлении B 1988 году Ha Московской Смит сделал своё заявление. встрече B Bepxax президент Рейган позволил Мы приветствуем прогресс K большей свободе Ha надеяться многим членам семей, что координиро- что указывает yKa3 0 путешествиях oT 1 января BaHHoe, постоянное внимание K проблеме посещения 1987 года, который упростил некоторые процедуры родственников обеспечит большую либерализацию и позволил недавним советским эмигрантам увидеть политики B отношении путешествий: членов СВОИХ семей. B недавнее время немногие люди u семьи B 1988 году более 000 советских людей получали разрешение посетить своих посетило друзей и родственников B США, что родственников Ha Западе. Мы можем только является значительным повышением по сравнению надеяться, что HeMHoΓo времени пройдёт C 5 700 B 1987 году, и B среднем 1 500 B год прежде чем BceM будет это позволено, u B предыдущие годы. Между TeM эти цифры MoΓyT украинские-американцы, прибалтийские- зпачительно повыситься при дальнейшей либерали- американцы, армяне-американцы cMoΓyT зации правил 0 путешествиях для миллионов также свободно посещать Свою родину, KaK родственников. это делает ирландец-американец." Мы разочарованы, ч TO большинство американцев "Hac обнадёживает, что число mex, KTo всё ещё должны оформлять туристические получает разрешения Ha кратковременные проездки, которые более дорогие чем частные поездки, B ToM числе ДЛЯ посещения членов поездки и также значительно урезают время семей, растёт. Мы верим, что cKopo HacTaHeT общения C семьёй. Bo время туристкой поездки полная свобода путешествий." американцам трудно посетить родственника B Мы верим, что прогресс BO Bcex сферах прав больнице, побывать Ha кладбище или просто человека, которые столь ЯСНО выражены BO находить удовольствие B нормальном человеческом Всеобщей Декларации прав человека, приведёт гостеприимстве, He нарушая советских 3aKoHoB. K улучшению отношений между нашими Мы думаем, что ОСНОВНОЙ проверкой глубины и странами и таким образом будет способствовать значения гласности послужит распространение делу сохрапения мира Ha земле. правила путешествий для учёных и бизнесменов Ha По поводу сороковой годовщины Всеобщей обычных людей, особенно B случаях тяжёлого Декларации по правам человека, мы призываем заболевания и смерти родственников. Bac K уважению обязательств налагаемыми меж- дународными соглашениями 0 фундаментальном праве человека Ha свободное передвижение. 4 F amily visits between relatives could, in time, We express our concern about arbitrary visa help reverse the adversarial nature of the denials: Americans denied tourist visas to meet past relationship. A true and lasting peace, with relatives; Soviet citizens denied the right to necessary in this nuclear age, can come within travel abroad by arbitrarily decisions of local our grasp. officials; Soviet citizens denied U.S. visas. The leaders of the United States and Soviet Freedom of travel should be a right guaran- Union can set an example for the rest of the teed by law, not a privilege. Millions of families world, as they have in arms control and cultural dream of the day when ordinary people are no exchanges, by upholding the basic right of longer victimized by the ebb and flow of political families to visit one another. considerations. In 1987, U.S. Congressman Christopher Smith In 1985, prior to the Geneva Summit, President introduced a Resolution which states that promo- Ronald Reagan said:" the cause of peace would tion of unrestricted family visits is an essential be well served if more individuals and families part of American policy toward the Soviet Union. could come to know each other in a personal way." In his introduction he stated: Family visits, the most basic form of cultural "I believe family visitation rights are basic human exchange, are a good foundation for that peace. rights and Soviet reforms have the potential to improve the atmosphere between the two superpowers. G eneral Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev expressed similar sentiments in a 1987 W e are heartened by significant improve- interview: "Direct people-to-people contact is ments in the granting of visas for a great thing. Without it, without broad communica- relatives by the Soviet Union since the tion and understanding between peoples, politics time of Christopher Smith's statement. We cannot provide much." welcome the liberalization in policy instituted President Reagan gave hope to relatives that with the decree on travel effective January 1, 1987 coordinated, continued, attention to the issue of which resulted in some simplification of proce- family visits will bring further liberalization of dures, and allowed recent Soviet emigres to travel policies by his statements at the 1988 exchange visits with their relatives. Moscow Summit: In 1988, over 14,000 Soviet citizens visited "Recently, a few individuals and families have been friends and relatives in the U.S. - a significant allowed to visit relatives in the West. We can only hope increase from 5,700 in 1987, and an average of that it won't be long before all are allowed to do so, and 1,500 per year in previous years. However, these Ukrainian-Americans, Baltic-Americans, Armenian- numbers could increase dramatically with Americans, can freely visit their homelands, just as further liberalization of travel procedures for this Irish-American visits his. million of relatives. " We're encouraged as well that the number of We are disappointed that most Americans those permitted to leave for short trips, often family must still take tours which are more expensive visits, has gone up. It is our hope that soon there will than private stays, and severely limit the time be complete freedom of travel." available to spend with family. Tours make it We believe that progress in all areas of difficult for Americans to see hospitalized human rights, so well expressed in the Univer- relatives, visit gravesites or enjoy normal sal Declaration of Human Rights, will lead to hospitality without breaking Soviet law. improved relations between our countries and We feel that the fundamental test of the depth therefore, to a safer, more peaceful, world. and meaning of glasnost is whether the easing of On the occasion of the Fortieth Anniversary travel procedures for business and scientific of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, travelers will be extended to ordinary family we appeal to you to honor the commitments members, especially in cases of serious illness or made in international agreements on the funda- death. mental human right of freedom of travel. 5 Рекомендации по облегчению KoHTaKToB между США и CCCP. 1 Образовать двустороннюю американо- 4 Облегчить поездки 3a границу для советскую рабочую группу, занимающуюся советских граждан. специально вопросами посещения родствен- a. Отменить принятую B настоящее время ников B другой cTpaHe, C TeM, чтобы, установить для советских граждан плату 3a визу B pa3Mepe юридические нормы B процедуре подачи заявлений 200 рублей (равную средней месячной заплате Ha выезд 3a границу, расширить возможности B CCCP). 3a визу Ha поездку B социалистичес- взаимных посещений и создать инстанцию, B кие страны прежде взималась плата B pa3Mepe которую можно было бы обращаться C жалобами 20 рублей, HO C 1 января 1988 года и caMa по па oTKa3 B выдаче визы или B случае других помех себе такая виза, и плата 3a Hee отменены. По B поездке 3a границу. Хельсинкским соглашениям, Советский Союз обязался выдавать разрешения Ha поездки K 2 Разработать меры, обеспечивающие родственникам 3a границу независимо oT ToΓo, ускорение бюрократических процедур B KaKoΓo они происхождения и B какой cTpaHe случае поездок, связанных C серьёзным они проживают. OTMeHa виз для поездок-в заболеванием или смертью родственника 3a социалистические страны B этом cBeTe должна рубежом. Установить каналы срочной процедуры, повлечь 3a собой аналогичную акцию и ПО позволяющей советским гражданам совершать отношению K поездкам B страны Запада. экстренные поездки B США. 6. Предоставить молодёжи и целым семьям больше возможностей я - путешествий Ha Запад. 3 Упростить процедуру рассмотрения B. Увеличить cpoK годности документов (B частнос- ходатайств 0 поездке 3a границу и выдачи ти иностранных паспортов), выдаваемых ДЛЯ визы. заграничных поездок. По существующей coBeT- a. Значительно ускорить процесс рассмотрения СКОЙ практике, визы действительны только B ходатайств («ВЫЗОВОВ") 0 частных поездках течение шести месяцев для каждой поездки. родных (и друзей) B гости. Ныне эта процедура Необходимо обеспечить условия, по которым ДЛИТСЯ 4-6 месяцев. Родственникам следует одного ходатайства было бы достаточно для, предоставить такие же права получения B ToΓo, чтобы cpa3y получить разрешение Ha He- течение 2-5 дней множественной вьездной сколько поездок B течение большего, чем ныне визы, действительной B течение двух лет, разрешённый, периода. TaK, Венгрия выдает которые B настоящее время предоставлены СВОИМ гражданам паспорт, действительный B только западным бизнесменам и учёным. течение пяти лет и позволяющий неограничен- 6. Отменить Bce ограничения, связанные CO Hoe ЧИСЛО выездов 3a пределы государства. степенью родства, при рассмотрении ходатайств Γ. Отменить практику, обязывающуюсоветских 0 частных поездках и разрешить американским граждан лично ЯВЛЯТЬСЯ B посольство США B туристам останавливаться Ha дому y их MocKBe для подачи ходатайства 0 вьездной родственников и друзей по их желанию He американской визе. ограничивая их только включёнными B программу экскурсиями. 5 Установить большее число, B дополнение K B. Отменить практику, обязывающую заполнять существующим, советских пограничных несколько отдельных aHKeT B случае посещения пунктов вьезда и выезда иностранных родственников, проживающих B различных туристов. Ныне MocKBa является главным областях CoBeTcKoΓo Союза. транзитным пунктом; нужны новые пункты и B Γ. Разрешить американским туристам, заинт- Европейской части CCCP, и Ha Дальневосточном ересованным B экскурсиях по CoBeTcKoMy Сою побережье. Прибалтийские республики, Армения, 3y наряду C посещением родных TaM, продлить Белоруссия, Украина и Российская Федерация, время пребывания B каждом из городов должны иметь дополнительные, СВОИ собственные (B настоящее время, B большинстве городов это вьездно-выездные пункты. Упростить процедуры время ограничено 3-4 сутками). для взаимных KoHTaKToB представителей д. Ввести B coBeTcKoM консульстве B Сан-Фран- народностей Аляски и Сибири, разделённых по ЦИСКО анкеты и процедуры, идентичные TeM, Берингову проливу подчас расстоянием, He которые приняты B консульстве B Вашингтоне. превышающим три мили. 6 Recommendations for liberalized U.S.-USSR travel procedures: 1 Establish a U.S.-Soviet bilateral working 4 Ease travel requirements for Soviet citizens. group on family visits in order to set a. Eliminate the current 200 ruble visa fee standard application procedures, continue (over one month's average salary) as the progress in improving opportunities for Soviet Union has done for visits to Eastern exchanged visits, and to create a means for Europe. appeal of visa denials or visit problems. b. Allow entire families and more young people to travel to the West. C. Increase period of validity of travel permis- 2 Establish a procedure for quick action in sion/international passports. Under present case of serious illness or death. Set up Soviet policy visas are valid for six months - procedure which will allow an American for one trip. One application procedure relative to apply and receive visa from Soviet should allow multiple trips for an extended consulate via telephone, overnight mail, or period. facsimile machine for emergency travel to the d. Eliminate the need for Soviet citizens to Soviet Union. Establish fast procedure for appear in person at the U.S. Embassy in residents of the Soviet Union to apply for travel Moscow to apply for a U.S. visa. to the USA in emergency situations. e. U.S. consulates in the Soviet Union should re-examine their policy of visa denial to Soviet citizens who fit an arbitrary profile of 3 Ease procedures and requirements for a potential defector. private visits. a. Streamline or eliminate the 4-6 month- long invitation (vyzov) process for private visas for relatives (and friends). Like Western businessmen and scientists, relatives 5 Open up more entry/exit points into the Soviet Union. Moscow is now the primary transit point for the Soviet Union. The should receive two year multiple-entry visas Baltic States, Armenia, Byelorussia, Central Asia, within 2 to 5 days. Ukraine, Russia, and the Pacific coast should b. Remove relationship requirements for private have additional entry/exit points. visits, and allow Americans the right to stay in homes of relatives or friends, rather than Ease travel procedures for related Alaskan and confining most Americans to tours. Siberian natives living three miles apart across C. Eliminate need for multiple applications to the Bering Strait. visit relatives in different regions. d. For those Americans who prefer to combine a tour with visits to relatives, increase the length of time permitted in each city (now limited to 3 or 4 days except in certain cities). e. Provide identical standard forms and procedures at the Soviet consulates in U.S.; and U.S. consulates in Soviet Union. 7 Совещание по Безопаспости и Сотрудничеству B 6 B настоящее время крайне ограниченное Европе, Заключительный AKT, 1 ABΓycTa 1975 Γ. ЧИСЛО населённых пунктов B CoBeTcKoM Сою VII. Уважение прав человека u основных свобод... 3e открыто для американских туристов 90 Сотрудничество B гуманитарных и других областях для посещения C ночёвкой и ещё 90 для ИСКЛЮ Государства-участники, Желая содейстовать укреп- чительно дневных экскурсий. Это ЧИСЛО лению мира и взаимопонимания между народами..., необходимо увеличить. Соответствующим образом, Сознавая, что развитие... контакты между людьми и и Соединённые Штаты ДОЛЖНЫ открыть большее решение гуманитарных проблем будут содействовать достижению этих целей... Исполненные решимости ЧИСЛО населённых пунктов для советских туристов. поэтому сотрудничать между собой... Увежденные, что это содрудничество должно 7 Отменить советские законодательные акты, осуществляться при полном соблюдений принципов, отпугивающие иностранных туристов или регулирующих отношения между государствами- ограничивающие свободу их передвижения, участниками.. Приняли следующее: KaK TO: 1. Контакты между людьми a. 3aKoH 0 coBeTcKoM гражданстве oT 1 июля 1979 Государства-участники, Рассматривая развитие года, согласно KoTopoMy граждане США, KoHTaKToB B качестве важного элемента B укреплении дружественных отношений и доверия между народами, родившиеся Ha территории, ныне принадле- Подтверждая B СВЯЗИ C их нынешними усилиями по жащей CoBeTcKoMy Союзу, и их дети, хотя бы улучшению условий B этой области важное значепие, и родившиеся 3a пределами CCCP, считаются KoTopoe они придают гуманным соображениям, советскими гражданами. Ставят своей целью облегчать более свободное 6. 3aKoH OT 25 мая 1984 года, по KoTopoMy передвижение и контакты... и содействовать решению советские граждане принадлежат денежному вопросов ΓyMaHHoΓo xapaKTepa... штрафу 3a предоставление жилья, средств Заявляют 0 своей готовности принимать B этих целях передвижения и других (He названных) услуг меры, которые они сочтут подходящими, a также заклю иностранцам без предварительного разрешения чать между собой, B случае необходимости, соглашения властей. или достигать договоренностей и B. 3aKoH oT 23 июля 1966 года, налагающий Выражают cBoe намерение B настоящее время приступить K осуществлению следующего: наказание Ha иностранцев, «Сознательно a) Контакты u регулярные встречи Ha ocHoBe нарушающих установленные правила передви- семейных связей жения, посещающих пункты, He перечисленные Имея B виду содействовать дальнейшему развитию B их советских вьездных визах или уклоняю KoHTaKoB Ha ocHoBe семейных связей, государства- ЩИХСЯ oT маршрута. без специального Ha TO участники будут благожелательно рассматривать разрешения". просьбы 0 поездках C целью разрешения лицам въезда Ha их территорию или выезда C Hee Ha временной и, если этого пожелают, регулярной ocHoBe для встреч C 8 Необходимо увеличить ЧИСЛО авиарейсов, членами СВОИХ семей. включая чартерные рейсы и рейсы C удешев- ленными билетами ( B настоящее время Заявления 0 временных поездках для встреч C членами своих семей будут рассматриваться безотносительно K билеты Ha рейсы, оплачиваемые рублями, cTpaHe выезда или въезда; существующий порядок раскуплены Ha MHoΓo месяцев вперед, что создает оформления проездных документов и виз будет большие трудности, особенно для проживающих B применяться B этом духе. Оформдение и выдача таких провинции. документов и виз будут осуществляться B разумные сроки, B случаях срочной надобности таких, KaK 9 B дополнение, необходимо улучшить и иные серьезная болезнь, смерть, BO внеочередном порядке. Они подтверждают, что подача просьбы, относящейся способы международных KoHTaKToB граждан K KoHTaKTaM Ha ocHoBe семейных связей, He будет CCCP и США: приводить K изменению прав и обязанностей лица, возобновить прямую автоматическую подавшего просьбу, или членов ero семьи. телефонную СВЯЗЬ (без услуг b) Воссоединение семей телефонистов); c) Браки между гражданами различных государств отменить пошлины Ha подарки, d) Поездки no личным или профессиональным пересылаемые почтовыми бандеролями; причинам отменить почтовую перлюстрацию; e) Улучшение условий для туризма Ha инд обеспечить беспрепятственную доставку ЛЮ ивидуальной или коллективной ocHoBe бых почтовых отправлений. f) Встречи между молодежью g) 0 спорте h) Расширение KoHTaKToB 8 Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, Final Act, August 1, 1975 (Helsinki Accords) 6 Open up additional cities and regions now VII. Respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms closed to Americans, beyond the present Co-operation in Humanitarian and other Fields limit of about 90 cities for overnight stays, The participating States, Desiring to contribute to the and an additional 90 cities for day trips. The strengthening of peace and understanding among peoples. United States should open additional regions to Conscious that increased cultural and educational Soviet visitors. exchanges, broader dissemination of information, contacts between people, and the solution of humanitarian problems will contribute to the attainment of these aims. Determined therefore to cooperate among themselves, 7 Repeal decrees which intimidate or restrict irrespective of their political, economic and social systems, in visitors. order to create better conditions in the in the above fields, to a. Soviet citizenship decree of July 1, 1979 develop and strengthen existing forms of co-operation and to work out new ways and means appropriate to these aims, which states that naturalized U.S. citizens Convinced that this cooperation should take place in full born in the present territory of the USSR, and respect for the principles guiding relations among participat- their children, although born outside the ing States Have adopted the following: 1. Human Contacts USSR, are regarded citizens of the USSR. The participating States, Considering the development of b. Soviet decree of May 25, 1984 which makes contacts to be an important element in the strengthening of Soviet citizens liable to fines for providing friendly relations and trust among peoples, housing, transportation, and other Affirming, in relation to their present effort to improve con- [unspecified] services to foreigners without ditions in this area, the importance they attach to humanitar- ian considerations, prior permission. Make it their aim to facilitate freer movement and contacts, C. Soviet decree of July 23, 1966 which provides individually and collectively, whether privately or officially, penalties for foreigners who "maliciously among persons, institutions and organizations of the partici- violate travel regulations, visiting places not pating States, and to contribute to the solution of the humanitarian problems that arise in that connexion, mentioned in their USSR entry visas or Declare their readiness to these ends to take measures which deviating from the itinerary. without they consider appropriate and to conclude agreements or special permission." arrangements among themselves, as may be needed, and Express their intention now to proceed to the implementa- tion of the following: (a) Contacts and Regular Meetings on the Basis of Family Ties 8 Encourage airlines to increase availibilty of In order to promote further development of contacts on the flights, including low-fare and charter basis of family ties the participating States will favourably flights. (Currently, flights payable in consider applications for travel with the purpose of allowing rubles are sold out many months in advance, persons to enter or leave their territory temporarily, and on a regular basis if desired, in order to visit members of their making it difficult for people, especially from families. the provinces, to arrange a trip.) Applications for temporary visits to meet members of their families will be dealt with without distinction as to country of origin or destination: existing requirements for travel documents and visas will be effected within reasonable time 9 Improve other means of communication between relatives. limits; cases of urgent necessity such as serious illness or death - will be given priority treatment. They will take reinstate direct dial telephone such steps as may be necessary to ensure that the fees for communications official travel documents and visas are acceptable. remove prohibitive duties from gift They confirm that the presentation of an application con- parcels cerning contacts on the basis of family ties will not modify the rights and obligations of the applicant or of members of stop mail censorship his family. ensure delivery of all mail (b) Reunification of Families (c) Marriage between Citizens of Different States (d) Travel for Personal or Professional Reasons (e) Improvement of Conditions for Tourism on an Individual or Collective Basis (f) Meetings among Young People (g) Sport (h) Expansion of Contacts 9 Отчет KoHΓpecca США 100-й KoHΓpecc Совместная Резолюция KoHΓpecca 68 1-ая сессия Совместная Резолюция CeHaTa 29 United States of America Выражающая отношение KoHΓpecca K переписка, телефон, телеграф и посылки, встречаются невозможности для Американских граждан C огромными трудностями; поддерживать регулярные контакты C их Поскольку советская политика накладывает родственниками B CoBeTcKoM Союзе ограничения, меньше чем 1000 из многих ТЫСЯЧ американцев, которые посетили Советский Союз B Поскольку миллионы граждан Соединенных Штатов, 1986 году, получили разрешение посетить включая представителей национальных и этнических родственников y них дома, и только 1500 советских групп, таких KaK Армяне, Белорусы, Эстонцы, Немцы, граждан получили разрешение посетить своих Евреи, Латыши, Литовцы, Поляки, Русские и родственников B США; Украинцы, имеют родственников B CoBeTcKoM Союзе; Поскольку многие американцы, обескураженные Поскольку Советский Союз, подписав B 1975 году задержкой или oTKa3oM B получении частной визы для окоичательный AKT Конференции ПО Безопасности и посещения членов семьи по их MecTy жительства B Сотрудничеству B Европе, общеизвестны под названием CoBeTcKoM Союзе, стали прибегать K групповым Хельсинские Соглашения, обязался "благожелательно туристическим поездкам ПО CoBeTcKoMy Союзу KaK K рассматривать заявления 0 поездках C целью выезжать средству повидать СВОИХ родных; и въезжать B cTpaHy BpeMeHHo, и регулярно, если они Поскольку родственники должны иметь возможность ToΓo пожелают, для посещения членов их семей"; помогать и поддерживать друг друга B критических Поскольку B TOM же документе Советский Союз обстоятельствах, таких KaK Чернобыльская катастрофа, обязался B TOM, что «Заявления 0 временных визитах C или когда специализированная медицинская помощь целью встретиться C членами семьи будут недоступна B определенной cTpaHe; рассматриваться без различий B отношении страны Поскольку B случае серьезной болезни или смерти отправления или назначения ...; случаи срочной родственники должны иметь гарантию Ha немедленное необходимости - такие KaK серьеезная болезнь или получение визы; смерть - будут рассматриваться B срочном порядке"; Поскольку посещение родственников выходит 3a рамки Поскольку Советский Союз принял Хартию различий B политических взглядах, и правительства, Объединенных Наций и подлисал другие которые разрешают нормальные и регулярные международние документы 0 правах человека, такие семейные визиты, демонстрируют соблюдение KaK Международное Уложение 0 гражданских и важнейших принципов порядочности и справедливости, политических правах, T.e. документы, ЯВНО разделяемых BceM человечеством; и констатирующие право покидать СВОЮ cTpaHy и Поскольку Ha Венской конференции ПО безопасности и возвращаться B Hee; содружеству B Европе делегация Соединенных Штатов Поскольку B преддверии Женевского совещания B перечислила недопустимые ограничения, наложенные Bepxax B ноябре 1985, Президент PeΓaH заявил, что Советскими властями Ha советских граждан, желаю- «дело мира выиграет, если большее ЧИСЛО отдельных щих путешествовать 3a границей, и Ha американских лиц и семей узнают друг друга лично."; граждан, желающих посетить родственников B Поскольку частные визиты неизмеримо помогли бы CoBeTcKoM Союзе; таким облазом, нашему пониманию CoBeTcKoΓo народа и улучшению Палата Представителей и CeHaT Постановляют, отношений C Советским Союзом, TaK KaK семейные Что, no мнению KoHΓpecca, - визиты ЯВЛЯЮТСЯ основной формой культурного (1) поощрение неограниченных визитов между обмена; родственниками B Соединенных Штатах и B CoBeTcKoM Поскольку He подобает правительствам решать, какая Союзе является неотъемлемой частью Американской степень родства является достаточно близкой для ToΓo, политики B отношении CoBeTcKoΓo Союза; и чтобы разрешить родственникам посещать друг друга; (2) Президент, Государственный Секретарь и другие Поскольку современная политика CoBeTcKoΓo Союза члены администрации должны поднимать вопрос 0 делает практически невозможным для миллионов семейных визитах при Bcex подходящих родственников B обеих cTpaHax обмениваться обстоятельствах B обсуждении C руководством домашними визитами, И родственники, прибегающие K Коммунистической партии и Правительства другим формам поддержания общения, таким KaK CoBeTcKoΓo Союза. Совместная Резолюция KoHΓpecca 68 принято (405-0). Совместная Резолюция CeHaTa 29 принято единогласно. 10 Signatories to the Appeal * * Organizational affiliations are for identification purposes only. Signatories join the Appeal as individuals. Ludmilla Alexeeva Szymon Chodak Lillian Foreman Helsinki Watch Concordia University Bay Area Council for Soviet Jews Right Rev. Bishop Alypy Noam Chomsky Jonathan Freedman Vicar of Chicago-Detroit Eparchy, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Pulitzer Prize winner; Russian Orthodox Church Oustide Russia The Tribune, San Diego Monica Clark Alexander Amerisov The Catholic Voice Milton Friedman Soviet-American Review Nobel laureate; Hoover Institution, Pamela Braun Cohen Stanford University George B. Avisov Union of Councils for Soviet Jews Congress of Russian Americans Si Frumkin Congress of Russian Americans Southern California Council Judy Balint for Soviet Jews Seattle Action for Soviet Jewry Ginte Damusis Stanley A. Gecys Most Rev. Paul Baltakis, O.F.M. Lietuviu Informacijos Centras Lithuanian-American Community Bishop, Lithuanian Roman Catholic (Lithuanian Information Center) of the USA, Southeastern Region Church outside Lithuania Richard T. Davies Istvan B. Gereben Arnold Beichman Research Center for Religion and Human Coordinating Committee of Hungarian Hoover Institution, Stanford University Rights in Closed Societies; Organizations in North America U.S. Ambassador to Poland, 1973-78 Saul Bellow Sister Ann Gillen, S.H.C.J. Rev. Richard Deats Nobel laureate; University of Chicago National Interreligious Task Force Fellowship of Reconciliation Howard L. Berman Arthur J. Goldberg U.S. House of Representatives, California Midge Decter Former Associate Justice Committee for the Free World U.S. Supreme Court Yaroslav Bihun The Washington Group George Deukmejian Marshall Goldman Governor, State of California Wellesley College; Harvard University Russian Research Center Jacob Birnbaum Father Luis Dolan Center for Russian Jewry The Center for Citizen Diplomacy at Ernest Gordon Wainwright House Walter Bodnar Christian Rescue Effort for the Emancipation of Dissidents (CREED) Americans for Human Rights in Ukraine Robert K. Dornan U. S. House of Representatives, California Nancy A. Graham David Brower Institute for Soviet-American Relations Earth Island Institute Robert F. Drinan, S.J. Georgetown University Law School Dr. Lucile Green Ronald H. Brown World Citizens Assembly Democratic National Committee Peter Duignan Hoover Institution, Stanford University Dr. Thomas Greening Edmund G. Brown, Jr. Journal of Humanistic Psychology California Democratic Party Gary Finder Michael Car Soviet Jewry Legal Advocacy Center Edward Gudava Center for Democracy in the USSR Ukrainian-American Coordinating Council of Northern California Jonathan Fine, M.D. Physicians for Human Rights Oscar Handlin Andrew Ceelen Harvard University Christian Care East/West James Finn Freedom House Willis W. Harman Leo Cherne Institute of Noetic Sciences : Larissa Fontana International Rescue Committee Ukrainian-American Community Network Scott Harrison Mäido Kari Ulana Mazurkevych Amnesty International Urgent Action Estonian World Council, Inc. Ukrainian Human Rights Committee Charles Henry Natalia Kats Bruce McColm University of California, Berkeley; Bay Area Council for Soviet Jews Freedom House former Chairman, Amnesty International Stephen Klitzman Dr. Mohammad T. Mehdi Arthur Hertzberg American Bar Association Committee on National Council on Islamic Affairs Dartmouth College International Human Rights Gunars Meierovics Rev. Theodore M. Hesburgh, C.S.C. Helmut Konsen World Federation of Free Latvians University of Notre Dame Baltic American Freedom League Patricia M. Mische Ira Michael Heyman Nicholas C. Kotow Global Education Associates University of California, Berkeley Ukrainian Technological Society Ellen Moore Right Rev. Bishop Hilarion Vladislav Krasnov Amnesty International Urgent Action Vicar of North American and New York Monterey Institute of International Eparchy, Russian Orthodox Church Studies Louis E. Moore Outside Russia Communications Workers of America Gene Kudirka Kent R. Hill Lithuanian-American community Most Rev. Robert M. Moskal Institute on Religion and Democracy Bishop, St. Josaphat Ukrainian Catholic Myron B. Kuropas Diocese in Parma Lillian Hoffman Ukrainian National Association Colorado Committee of Concern Rabbi Sheldon W. Moss for Soviet Jewry John Kwapisz Soviet-American Forum Center For Peace & Freedom Arthur J. Holland William Ker Muir, Jr. Mayor, City of Trenton Aino Lauri University of California, Berkeley Estonian American Republican Club Paul Hollander Robert C. Mussehl University of Massachusetts at Amherst Dr. Ernest W. Lefever American Bar Association House of Ethics and Public Policy Center Delegates and Standing Committee Sidney Hook World Order Under Law Hoover Institution, Stanford University Dr. Dietrich Andre Loeber University of Kiel Micah H. Naftalin Daniel Horodysky Union of Councils for Soviet Jews VISA, Visits International for Soviets and Most Rev. Basil H. Losten, D.D. Americans Bishop, Ukrainian Catholic Diocese of Aleksandr M. Nekrich Stamford Harvard University Tamara P. Horodysky Russian Research Center VISA, Visits International for Soviets and Americans Bishop Innocent Lotocky, OSBM Bishop, St. Nicholas Ukrainian Catholic Richard John Neuhaus Diocese of Chicago The Rockford Institute Center Rev. Blahoslav Hruby on Religion and Society Research Center for Religion and Joseph E. Lowery Human Rights in Closed Societies Southern Christian Leadership Brian F. O'Connell Conference National Association of Evangelicals Daiva Izbickas Lithuanian Catholic Religious Aid Askold J. Lozynskyj Bozhena Olshaniwsky Attorney Americans for Human Rights in Ukraine Helen H. Jackson Henry M. Jackson Foundation Weyman I. Lundquist Robert Ontell Attorney Fred J. Hansen Institute for World Peace; John E. Jacob San Diego State University National Urban League, Inc. Craig Lunt Underground Ministries Eugenia Ordynsky Orest Jejna Congress of Russian Americans Attorney Ceslovas Masaitis Lithuanian Catholic Academy of Sciences Yuri Orlov Sviatoslav Karavansky Cornell University Former Soviet political prisoner Lawrence A. Parr Zeesy Schnur Rama J. Vernon Center for Democracy in the USSR Coalition to Free Soviet Jews Center For Soviet-American Dialogue Vladlen Pavlenkov Albert Shanker George Voinovich Freedom of Communications American Federation of Teachers Mayor, City of Cleveland Valdis V. Pavlovskis Amy L. Sherman Theodore H. Von Laue American Latvian Association in the US James Madison Foundation Clark University Yulia Pessina Philip Siegelman Roman Voronka Center for Democracy in the USSR San Francisco State University New Jersey Institute of Technology Dr. Nicolai N. Petro Marian Skabeikis David Waksberg Foreign Policy Research Institute Lithuanian Catholic Religious Aid Bay Area Council for Soviet Jews Robert Pickus Alexander Slepak George Wald World Without War Council Slepak Foundation Nobel laureate; Harvard University Dr. Morris Pripstein Vytas Sliupas Michael Y. Warder Scientists for Sakharov, Orlov and Lithuanian-American community The Rockford Institute Shcharansky (SOS) Christopher H. Smith George Weigel Rev. Casimir Pugevicius U. S. House of Representatives, New James Madison Foundation Lietuviu Informacijos Centras Jersey (Lithuanian Information Center) W. Bruce Weinrod Dr. Gregory H. Stanton Heritage Foundation Earl Raab Washington and Lee University, Jewish Community Relations Council School of Law Elie Wiesel of San Francisco Nobel laureate; Boston University Nina Strokata Mary Coleman Ragsdale Former Soviet political prisoner New Options Aaron Wildavsky University of California, Berkeley Most Rev. Stephen Sulyk Peter Reddaway Archbishop of Philadelphia; Pete Wilson George Washington University Metropolitan for Ukrainian Catholics in the United States U.S. Senate, California Nicholas V. Riasanovsky University of California, Berkeley Darius A. Suziedelis Wojceich A. Winkler Lithuanian American Youth Association Polish American Congress, Northern California Division Mari-Ann Rikken Estonian American National Council, Inc. Nadia Svitlychna Robert Woito External Ukrainian Helsinki Group World Without War Council, Toomas Rikken Midwest Regional Office Mart Laar Action Committee-U.S. Frank E. Sysyn Harvard Ukrainian Research Institute Helen Yakobson Fr. Keith Roderick George Washington University Society of St. Stephen Kathryn Szczepanska Center for Democracy in the USSR Yuri Yarim-Agaev Françoise Rothstein Center for Democracy in the USSR Women's American ORT Alicia Szendiuch Ukrainian Professionals Association of Dr. Mark A. Roy Boston Alexander S. Yessenin-Volpin Mathematician Foundation for International Human Rights Ludmilla Thorne Freedom House Catherine A. Young Freedom of Communications Holt Ruffin World Without War Council, Jaak Treiman Northwest Regional Office Mara Zigurs Baltic American Freedom League Inroads, Inc. Ginetta Sagan Valentin F. Turchin Aurora Foundation Osyp Zinkewych City University of New York Smoloskyp, Organization for Defense of Human Rights in Ukraine Signatories to the Appeal from the USSR Александр Рафаилович Анкудинов Po3a Петровна Лановая Андрей Всеволодович Полуянов Свободная миграциия, шофер Филолог Свобода миграции Лариса Богораз Виктор Евгеньевич Лановой Євген Васильович Пронюк Филолог Независимая психотерапевтическая Філософ ассоциация, психотерапист Александр Буланов Олег Румянцев Иммигрант-88 Дмитро Іванович Лапичак Клюб демократическая перестройка, Пенсіонер, інженер комптолог Владимир Галитзин Член комиссии no правам человека Левко Григорович Лук'яненко Виктор Иванович CepΓeeB межждународного фонда 3a Українська Гельсінська Спілка Свободная миграциия экономист выживание и развитие человечества Наталия Владимировна Магазаник Надежда Семёновна CepΓeeBa Анатолий Яковлевич Глазунов Юридический семинар Свободная миграция, Свободная миграция ABΓycTa CeMeHoBHa Манжура Екатерина Сергиенко Сергей Иванович Григорьянц Свободная миграциия економист Инвалид mpyga Журнал Гласность," Движение .3a свободу и демократию" OKcaHa Юрьевна Манжура Анатолий Всеволодович Сиромаха Свободная миграция, студентка Свободная миграция, философ- Василь Гурдзан комптолог Художник Юрий Игнатович Манжура Свободная миграция, физик Виктор Скажинский Виктор Викторович Давлятин Свободная миграция Свободная миграция, Доверие Олексій Маркитан Художник Вадим Слободянюк Анатолій Михайлович Доценко Студент Українська Гельсінська Спілка AHHa Михайлівна Марченко EKoHoMicT Алексей Владимирович Соловьев Евгений Дмитриевич Жуковский Свободная миграция Свободная миграция Микола Іванович Матусевич Кооператив Самоцвіт" Анатолий Анатольевич TapacoB Вячеслав Валентинович Ильященко Свобода миграции Художник Таміла Матусевич Інженер, інститут цивільного Жанна Теслер Галина Викторовна Зигмонд будівництва Юридический семинар Учитель ΓaHHa Василівна Михайленко Игорь Николаевич Черепашкин Константин Юревич KapMaHoB Бібліотекар, пенсіонерка Свободная миграция Институт восточний студий Игорь Владимирович Мешков Борис Чернобыльский Володимир Якович Кауфман Свободная миграциия, переплетчик Член комиссии no правам человека Художник межждународного фонда 3a Сима Борисовна Мостинская выживание и развитие человечества Иосиф Григорьевич Кац Пенсионерка Пенсионер Григорий Васильевич Черных Микола Ф. MypaToB Свободная миграция Михайлина XoMiBHa Коцюбинська Українська Гельсінська Спілка Літературознавець Ольга Дмитрівна Шамрай Михаил Осадчев Редакція " - Трибуна робітника" Игорь Евгеньевич Кирякин Инженер компюторщик Свободная миграция Игорь Шелюто Лев Станиславович Перелкин Телевизионный Технический Центер Ирина Владимировна Кронрод Этнограф, Институт этнографии Студентка AHCCCP Алексей Николаевич Шерстнёв Свободная миграциия слесарь Александр Лавут Алексей Евгениевич Петров Член комиссии no правам человека Свободная миграция Наталка Шимін межждународного фонда 3a Художник выживание и развитие человечества BiKTop Богданович Покиданець Художник BiKTop Володимирович Лазор Студент TaMapa Л. Половникова Домогосподарка Postscript The Appeal for Freedom of Travel was drafted in November 1988; following are some of the changes that have occurred since: A. The Air Ministry raised the price F. Local authorities continue to in- of an airline ticket to the U.S. timidate some Americans who try to from 1250 to 1800 rubles ($3000, visit relatives outside their tour about one year's average pay) and city. no longer sells tickets beyond New G. Soviet citizens, some traveling York or Washington, DC. Aeroflot thousands of kilometers, wait long tickets are sold out as much as hours, sometimes in inclement one year in advance, partly be- weather, for their interview at cause speculators are allowed to the U.S. Consulates in Moscow or buy up tickets. Leningrad to obtain a U.S. visa. B. Currently, Soviet citizens can Some are denied U.S. visas. exchange only 210 rubles ($330) H. Increased travel and trade make into dollars, no matter the length opening the long-delayed U.S. con- of their stay in the West. This sulate in Kiev and USSR consulate drastic cut in currency allowance in New York vital to serve Ameri- came nearly simultaneously with can and Soviet citizens. new baggage rules which allow So- viet citizens returning to the There are constant changes in im- USSR on economy excursion fare plementation of customs duties, visa tickets only one suitcase as free regulations and application proce- baggage. Additional baggage is dures. There are near-riots in OVIR charged $108 per piece. lines. C. Soviet authorities ignore rampant theft and vandalism of tourist Many of the new measures put into luggage committed by baggage han- effect in 1989 create a financial dlers. squeeze on Soviet visitors and their D. According to the January 1987 de- hosts. cree on foreign travel, visa deci- sions are to be made within one Proposed Soviet legislation on month. Even if local authorities travel will not address underlying do make the decision within that policy problems and will not ensure time, the procedure to get to that local compliance with the law. point still makes it a 4-6 month long process. In contrast, a Soviet officials continue to make tourist visa takes as little as promises regarding freedom of travel, two or three weeks, while a busi- just as they did at Helsinki, Madrid, ness or conference visa takes as Vienna, Bern, and Paris. We should little as two hours. not be content with mere promises, E. Soviet Customs officials arbitrar- but should demand improvements in ily charge exorbitant customs du- performance regarding freedom of ties from some American citizens travel. carrying gifts for relatives. 15 Congressional Record 100th CONGRESS House Concurrent Resolution 68 FIRST SESSION Senate Concurrent Resolution 29 United States of America Expressing the sense of Congress relatives who have used other forms of communications, regarding the inability of American citizens such as mail, telephone, telegraph, and gift parcels have to maintain regular contact with relatives experienced enormous difficulties; Whereas because of restrictive Soviet policies, less than in the Soviet Union 1,000 of the many thousands of Americans who visited the Soviet Union in 1986 were allowed a private visa to Whereas millions of United States citizens, including stay with their relatives in their homes, and only about members of national and ethnic groups such as 1,500 Soviet citizens were allowed to visit their relatives Armenians, Byelorussians, Estonians, Germans, Jews, in the United States; Latvians, Lithuanians, Poles, Russians, and Ukrainians, Whereas many Americans who have been frustrated by the have relatives in the Soviet Union; delay or denial in obtaining private visas to visit family Whereas the Soviet Union, as a signatory of the 1975 Final members in their homes in the Soviet Union have Act of the Conference of Security and Cooperation in resorted to joining package tours to the Soviet Union as a Europe, commonly known as the Helsinki Accords, com- means of seeing their family members; mitted itself to "favourably consider applications for Whereas relatives should be able to comfort and assist each travel with the purpose of allowing persons to enter or other in the event of medical emergencies such as those leave their territory temporarily, and on a regular basis if which resulted from the Chornobyl disaster, or when desired, in order to visit members of their families."; specialized medical treatment is not available in a Whereas in that same document the Soviet Union pledged particular country; that "applications for temporary visits to meet members Whereas in the case of serious illness or death the victim's of families will be dealt with without distinction as to relatives should be guaranteed expeditious determination country of origin or destination ; cases of urgent of their visa applications; necessity - such as serious illness or death - will be Whereas family visitation is an issue which transcends given priority treatment."; political differences, and governments which permit Whereas the Soviet Union has ratified the United Nations normal and regular family visitation demonstrate a Charter and signed other international human rights commitment to basic values of decency and fairness documents such as the International Covenant on Civil which are shared by all mankind; and and Political Rights, documents which clearly protect the Whereas at the Vienna Conference on Security and Coop- right to leave one's country and return thereto; eration in Europe Follow-up Meeting, the United States Whereas in anticipation of the Geneva Summit Conference delegation enumerated the inappropriate restrictions of November 1985, President Reagan stated, the placed by Soviet authorities on Soviet citizens who wish cause of peace would be served if more individuals and to travel abroad and on United States citizens who wish families. could come to know each other in a personal to visit family members in the Soviet Union: Now, way."; therefore, be it Whereas home visits would immeasurably aid our under- Resolved by the House of Representatives and the Senate, standing of the Soviet people and improve relations with That it is the sense of the Congress that - the Soviet Union, since family visitation is one of the (1) the promotion of unrestricted family visits between most basic forms of cultural exchange; related people in the United States and the Soviet Union Whereas it is not proper for governments to decide which is an essential part of U.S. policy toward the Soviet relationships constitute close family ties for the purpose Union; and of determining which relatives should be allowed to visit (2) the President, the Secretary of State, and other members each other; of the administration should raise the issue of family Whereas the present policies of the Soviet Union make it visitation at all appropriate opportunities in discussion virtually impossible for the millions of relatives in the with the leadership of the Communist Party and the two countries to exchange visits in their homes, and Government of the Soviet Union. Senate Concurrent Resolution 29 passed unanimously July 29, 1987. House Concurrent Resolution 68 passed unanimously (405-0) October 27, 1987. 11 An Appeal for Freedom of Travel is a program of VISA - Visits International for Soviets and Americans. VISA is a non-partisan, non-profit, human rights organization which works toward one goal: the basic right of millions of relatives in the USA and USSR to exchange regular home visits. VISA is a project of the World Without War Council of Northern California. Co-chairs: Daniel and Tamara Horodysky For more information contact: VISA PO Box 2361 Berkeley, California 94702 USA Telephone (415) 540-VISA VISA - Visits International for Soviets and Americans - ВИЗА VISA PO Box 2361 Berkeley, California 94702 (415) 540-VISA Advocates of visits between relatives in the USA and USSR Board of Advisors Ludmilla Alexeyeva VISA Zinta Arums Vladimir Bukovsky PO Box 2361 Gary Carpenter Joe Hagin Berkeley, California 94702 USA Robert Conquest telephone & fax (415) 540-VISA Anatoly Koryagin Deputy Assistant to the President Dietrich Loeber John Martinson for Appointments and Scheduling Daniel Horodysky, Chairman William Muir The White House Member, Human Rights Commission, Bozhena Olshaniwsky International Foundation for the Yuri Orlov Washington, DC 20500 Development and Survival of Humanity Robert Pickus Mari-Ann Rikken Philip Siegelman Dear Joe, Alexander Slepak Vytas Sliupas Nina Strokata-Karavanska George Weigel Enclosed is An Appeal for Freedom of Travel for Millions of Related Persons Aaron Wildavsky in the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics Yuri Yarim-Agaev Chairman We request an appointment to present the Appeal to the President at a public Daniel Horodysky ceremony. We are available at the President's earliest convenience. Co-chair If you wish further information about our organization and us please contact Tamara Horodysky one our advisors, Sandy (William) Muir, Professor of Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley. Sandy was a speech writer for Vice President Bush. His telephone number at his office is 415- 642-4685, Political Science Department 642-6326, (home) 653-8888. We will be in Washington for a conference from October 5-10th. If you wish to contact us please call 703-998-8570, or leave a message at 301-365-2490. Sincerely yours, Daniel Horodysky Tamara Horodysky October 4, 1989 VISA is a Project of the World Without War Council of Northern California Berkeley VISA - Visits International for Soviets and Americans - ВИЗА VISA PO Box 2361 Berkeley, California 94702 (415) 540-VISA President George Bush Board of Advisors The White House Ludmilla Alexeyeva Washington, DC 20500 Zinta Arums Vladimir Bukovsky Gary Carpenter Dear Mr. President, Robert Conquest Anatoly Koryagin Dietrich Loeber John Martinson In spite of euphoria over glasnost - visits between relatives in the USA and William Muir Bozhena Olshaniwsky the Soviet Union, although improved during the past two years, are still Yuri Orlov fraught with great difficulties. Robert Pickus Mari-Ann Rikken Philip Siegelman Changes in US policy can create conditions which will allow relatives the Alexander Slepak Vytas Sliupas opportunity to visit each other just like normal people. (A businessperson or Nina Strokata-Karavanska George Weigel scientist can get a visa the same day, while a private visa to stay with relatives Aaron Wildavsky takes 4-6 months. Please note the enclosed diagrams of travel procedures.) Yuri Yarim-Agaev Proposed Soviet legislation will not address underlying policy problems and Chairman will not ensure local compliance with the law. Daniel Horodysky The USA and USSR can set a strong, humanitarian example for the world, Co-chair raising the hopes of families separated by conflicts and politics, in the Koreas, Tamara Horodysky Southeast Asia, the Germanies, Mid East, Central America, and elsewhere. The issue of family visits gained increasing prominence in the past four years: Ambassadors Michael Novak at the Bern Human Contacts Conference, Warren Zimmerman at the Vienna CSCE, Morris Abram at the Paris Conference on the Human Dimension, overwhelming, unanimous support of HConRes 68 and SConRes 29 in 1987, and President Reagan's stress on family visits at the Moscow Summit in May 1988. We enclose An Appeal for Freedom of Travel for Millions of Related Persons in the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics addressed to you and the leader of the Soviet Union, signed by many concerned individuals representing a cross section of Americans and Soviet citizens. Placing the Recommendations outlined in the Appeal into practice is the next logical step. We request an appointment to discuss this issue and present this Appeal to you at a public ceremony. We are available at your earliest convenience. Enclosed is a brief description of VISA. Respectfully yours, Daniel Horodysky Tamara Horodysky October 4, 1989 VISA is a Project of the World Without War Council of Northern California Berkeley VISA Goal VISA is an non-partisan, non-profit, human rights organization which works toward one goal: the right of millions of relatives in the USA and USSR to exchange regular home visits - like normal people. VISA believes it is a basic right - not a privilege - for any relatives to exchange visits in their homes. Visits as a Lever for Change Millions of relatives in the USA and Soviet Union, who maintain contact in spite of wars, repression, politics, and censorship, are a valuable resource to encourage independent thought, expression and as vehicles for dissemination of information. Improvements in the U.S. -USSR situation can set an example for other parts of the world where millions of families are also separated by wars and politics. VISA Background The idea for VISA dates back to 1954 when Daniel Horodysky was denied a visa to visit his 92 year-old grandmother. In 1977, Tamara Horodysky was able to visit her 93 year-old grandfather for only one hour during a tour. Soviet militia (police) prevented them from meeting again. A fellow tourist was unable to visit his dying mother - his sole purpose for taking the tour. VISA was formed in March 1985 when our 7 year-old daughter presented a bilingual letter to a visiting Soviet dignitary asking why she couldn't exchange home visits with her cousins. Family Visits in the Era of Glasnost During the past two years travel by Soviet citizens to the U.S. increased dramatically: from an average of 1,500 per year earlier this decade, to 5,700 in 1987, and rising to 20,000 in 1988. Travelers included people from various ethnic groups, from villages and large cities, and from all walks of life. In a few rare instances, entire families were permitted to travel together. Recent emigrés from the USSR, who had been barred from exchanging visits with their relatives, are now granted tourist visas to the Soviet Union. In spite of glasnost, few visitors are granted visas to stay in private homes. Most visitors must pay for hotels and meals, but many manage to spend the night with family, albeit, illegally. Treatment of foreign visitors varies from town to town, and depends strictly upon the whim of local authorities, so some travelers still report difficulties in seeing their relatives. Soviet law still places restrictions on contacts with foreigners and on movement of tourists, especially relatives. Legally, travel by foreigners is restricted to 5% of the territory of the USSR: approximately 90 cities with Intourist hotel facilities, plus an additional 90 cities accessible during chauffeur-driven excursions. The attached diagram graphically represents the 4-6 month long process for application for a private visa. A businessman or scientist can receive a Soviet visa on the same day, and tourists can receive a visa in 2-3 weeks. Currently, the limiting factor on travel by Soviet citizens is the lack of Aeroflot flights to the West (payable in rubles), and the U.S. requirement that travelers appear in person in Moscow or Leningrad to complete a questionnaire with 48 items. Some Americans are still denied tourist visas to the Soviet Union. VISA 9/20/89 1 International Agreements Addressing Family Visits The Universal Declaration of Human Rights, Article 13 (2) states, "Everyone has the right to leave any country, including his own, and to return to his country." The USSR ratified the UN Covenants on Civil and Political Rights which are international laws binding signatory countries. The Covenants reiterate the rights of persons to leave and re-enter their country. In the 1975 Helsinki Final Act, the concluding document of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, the Soviet Union agreed to: "favourably consider applications for travel with the purpose of allowing persons to enter or leave their territory temporarily, and on a regular basis if desired, in order to visit members of their families. Applications for temporary visits to meet members of their families will be dealt with without distinction as to country of origin or destination: existing requirements for travel documents and visas will be effected within reasonable time limits; cases of urgent necessity - such as serious illness or death - will be given priority treatment. They will take such steps as may be necessary to ensure that the fees for official travel documents and visas are acceptable." What We Do 1. Encourage visa applications and provide help to individuals. VISA offers information and advice to individuals and members of ethnic groups including Armenians, Byelorussians, Estonians, Germans, Jews, Latvians, Lithuanians, Russians, Ukrainians., and others. We direct individuals with problems to the U.S. State Department and Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe (Helsinki Commission), and highlight selected cases with press conferences and letters to various officials. We attend ethnic festivals and conferences and provide information to ethnic newspapers, churches and organizations to inform individuals with relatives in the USSR about our organization. We respond to telephone and written requests from individuals throughout the country and overseas (including Israel, Finland, France, Canada, and West Germany) for advice regarding procedures for applying to see relatives. 2. Encourage Non-Governmental organizations to raise family visits issue. We inform American human rights, peace and cultural exchange groups about the difficulties faced by relatives, and encourage them to discuss the issue with their members, national leaders and Soviet authorities and visiting Soviet delegations. We network with many organizations throughout the U.S. including: Americans for Human Rights in Ukraine Center for Democracy in the USSR Center for Soviet-American Dialogue Congress of Russian Americans External Representation of the Ukrainian Helsinki Monitoring Group Fred J. Hansen Institute for World Peace Freedom of Communications Global Education for Human Rights Joint Baltic American Committee VISA 9/20/89 2 League of Women Voters Lithuanian Information Center Underground Ministries Union of Councils for Soviet Jews World Without War Council-Northwest Regional Office 3. Publish newsletters and other documents to disseminate information We distribute newsletters and other literature to national and ethnic leaders and individuals emphasizing the humanitarian aspect of visits between relatives and Soviet obligations under international agreements. 4. Serve as source of information to national leaders and organizations. VISA is the only organization in the U.S. focusing on family visits, and we provide information to Members of Congress, Senate, Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, and State Department. In 1987, Congress unanimously passed House Concurrent Resolution 68 and Senate Concurrent Resolution 29 which addressed the issue of family visits. VISA initiated these two Resolutions which were introduced by Congressman Chris Smith (R-New Jersey), and Senators Dennis DeConcini (D-Arizona), Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), Paul Simon (D-Illinois), Bill Bradley (D- New Jersey), Al D' Amato (R-New York), Frank Lautenberg (D-New Jersey), and Pete Wilson (R- California). Tamara Horodysky gave a speech at the White House in December 1987 (prior to the Washington summit). Anna Horodysky delivered her plea to Reagan and Gorbachev for easier travel to Assistant Secretary of State John Whitehead and to the Soviet Embassy. During the Moscow Summit President Reagan mentioned family visits during his speeches at Spaso House and Moscow University. This was the first time that family visits received prominent exposure in the U.S. and Soviet media. At Moscow State University President Reagan said: "Recently, a few individuals and families have been allowed to visit relatives in the West. We can only hope that it won't be long before all are allowed to do so, and Ukrainian- Americans, Baltic-Americans, Armenian-Americans, can freely visit their homelands, just as this Irish-American visits his." Spaso House: "Freedom of travel. We're encouraged as well that the number of those permitted to leave for short trips, often family visits, has gone up. And yet the words of the Universal Declaration go beyond these steps. Everyone has the right to leave any country, including his own, and to return to his country. It is our hope that soon there will be complete freedom of travel." Dan Horodysky participated in the Paris Conference on the Human Dimension (June 1989), a follow-up to the Helsinki Conference. VISA 9/20/89 3 5. Inform media about family visits. An important thrust of our work is to inform the national media about the issue of family visits. Various newspapers including New York Times, San Francisco Chronicle, Seattle Times, Washington Times, Christian Science Monitor have printed letters to the editor and op-ed articles from VISA. Articles about VISA have appeared in Moscow's underground journal Glasnost, Paris-based Russkaya Mysl, Newark Star Ledger, Asbury Park Press, Ukrainian Weekly, Svoboda, San Francisco Chronicle, Daily Californian, and others. In May 1988, Tamara Horodysky of VISA was interviewed by Jane Pauley on NBC's Today Show. Voice of America, Cable Network News, Radio Moscow, and various television and radio stations have covered VISA. 6. Work With Independent Groups in the USSR. VISA works with human rights activists in Moscow, Leningrad, Kiev, Lviv. We provide them with copies of the Soviet law on travel to the West, VISA literature and copies of international agreements dealing with freedom of travel. Recently, we provided a personal computer to one of these groups to assist them in their work. International Foundation for the Survival and Development of Humanity Ukrainian Helsinki Union Sajudis Free Migration Democratic Union International Society for Human Rights Ukrainian Catholic Church In May 1989 Dan Horodysky presented a paper at a Moscow Symposium entitled Freedom of Movement for Everybody, sponsored by the International Foundation for the Survival and Development of Humanity. VISA Staff Tamara (Toni) Horodysky, a native of Ukraine, is fluent in Ukrainian and understands Russian and other Slavic languages. Tamara holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Chemistry from Rutgers University, and was formerly employed as a writer of technical literature. She is an active member of the Ukrainian community in the Bay area. Daniel Horodysky, the founder of VISA, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in the Russian Area Program, a Master of Arts in Geography from Rutgers University, and was a PhD candidate at University of California, Berkeley. He was a Fulbright Fellow in the Federal Republic of Germany (1956-57). Dan has traveled extensively throughout the world, including four trips to visit family in Ukraine. He has been a college instructor, city planner, and is retired from the U.S. Civil Service. He is a member of the Human Rights Commission of the International Foundation for the Development and Survival of Humanity (Moscow - Stockholm - Washington, D.C.). VISA 9/20/89 4 10/17/89 INTERNA Gorbachev Tells Korean Car Makers Find Relief i Liberal Media By DAMON DARLIN about half of that for export. Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL It's an optimistic move in a industry al- SEOUL, South Korea-Korean car ex- ready facing world-wide overcapacity. But To Watch Step ports have slid about 40% SO, far this year, South Korean auto makers are confident but auto makers here aren't panicking. that the export market will bounce back They are enjoying domestic sales that and that demand in Korea will stay strong. are more than making up for lost overseas Currently only one in 38 South Koreans At Meeting, Soviet Leader sales. South Korean consumers are ex- owns a car, up from one in 200 a decade pected to buy almost 500,000 passenger ago. "In the year 2000 it will be one car per Tries to Rein In Editors, cars this year, up 60% from 1988. In fact, family. At that point domestic sales will some auto executives suggest that slack- slow down," says Kim Yoon Kwon, direc- Suggests That One Quit ened demand for their cars in the U.S. and tor of marketing for Daewoo Motor. Canada is a blessing; otherwise they The reason for the tremendous demand wouldn't be able to keep up with demand is simple: South Koreans suddenly have a By PETER GUMBEL in the more profitable local market. lot more. money. "We never thought we'd Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL "We are very lucky to easily change own a car," says Kwang Ok Kyong, who MOSCOW-Soviet leader Mikhail Gor- an export loss to domestic plus," says just bought a Daewoo LeMans on a five- bachev wants to bring the nation's reform- Hong Tu Pyo, managing director of do- year loan. She and her husband started a ist press back into line, blaming it for con- mestic marketing for Hyundai Motor Co. small printing business and need the car tributing to the many problems he faces As it is, waiting lists of a month aren't for work as well as for weekend jaunts. and even suggesting that one liberal editor unusual for popular models. Demand is SO resign. strong that all of the domestic makers- Hefty Pay Raises Mr. Gorbachev's comments, made at a Hyundai, Kia Motors Corp., Daewoo Motor Pay raises of 60% over the past three meeting with Soviet national editors and Co. and even upstart SsangYong Motor years have given many South Koreans the media executives Friday, indicate his Co.-plan to build more factories. Industry money to enjoy the things they were sup- growing frustration with the nation's analysts predict that by 1995, South Korea plying the rest of the world. mounting problems. According to people will be building three million cars a year- The success of newcomer SsangYong who attended, he didn't advocate an end to glasnost, his policy of openness. But he readers' letters and contained some criti- Nintendo Co. made clear that the press should show cism of Mr. Gorbachev himself. greater responsibility in its reporting and The newspaper wrote that readers as- cut back on criticism of his reforms. Pretax Profit Climbed 23%, sessed his role both positively and nega- The text of his remarks hasn't been tively. It said many thanked the Soviet Sales Were Up 40% in Yea published, and editors say they have no in- leader for his "self-control, modesty, cul- structions as to whether it will be. Ac- ture and ability to hear a speaker out.' Nintendo Co., a Japanese maker ( counts of previous such meetings with me- But others criticized him, "for imposing video games, electronic information sy dia and other groups have been printed, his opinion on other deputies, giving com- tems and playing cards, posted a 23% un sometimes after a delay of several days. mentaries to many speeches, holding elec- consolidated surge in pretax profit to 61.4 Although glasnost has given the govern- tions with no choice of candidate, putting billion yen ($429 million) from 50 billic ment-controlled media here much greater pressure on the voting process and maneu- yen ($349.9 million) for the fiscal ye: freedom to report and criticize, Mr. Gorba- vering between the right and left wings" of ended Aug. 31. chev and other Soviet leaders still regard the Parliament. All this, the paper quoted Sales surged 40% to 250.17 billion y newspapers and TV as important propa- from 178.61 billion. Net income rose 11% readers as saying, "has seriously weak- ganda tools they can use at will. ened his authority." 29.62 billion yen from 26.68 billion. P According to participants at the meet- The Soviet leader apparently suggested share net fell to 423.3 yen from 457.7 y ing and Soviet journalists who were later to Argumenty i Fakty's editor, Vyacheslav because of expenses and capital adju briefed by their editors, Mr. Gorbachev ments. Starkov, that he should resign. The com- blamed the press for, fueling a nationwide ment, which Mr. Starkov relayed to his Without detailing specific produ mood of despondency. In particular, he staff, has sparked anger and bitterness at breakdowns, Nintendo credited its bulli complained about some articles this sum- the paper. Mr. Starkov has been sum- upsurge in sales-including advanced con mer that openly discussed the possibility of moned to see the Kremlin's ideology chief, puter games and television entertainme a coup or civil war in the Soviet Union, and Vadim Medvedev, in the near future, and systems-to surging "leisure-oriente accused the media of fueling panic buying may discover then if he is to be fired. sales in foreign markets. Export sales of goods by printing stories about impend- Izvestia was criticized for a front-page leisure items alone, for instance, tota ing shortages. article last Wednesday that took a sharp 184.74 billion yen in the 12 months, up fro He singled out the daily Izvestia and the look at the Parliament's activities. It at- 106.06 billion in the previous fiscal ye weekly Argumenty 1 Fakty, and also gave tacked the level of a debate on the private- stinging criticism of Yuri Afanasyev, a sector cooperative movement, saying "the Societe National Elf Aquitaine leading reformist historian who has writ- discussion was more like a riot than a civi- ten articles attacking the Communist lized exchange of points of view." And it Agip S.p.A. and Societe National I Party. questioned the speed with which the Par- Aquitaine, the state oil companies of Ita The meeting lasted a little under two liament was adopting new legislation. and France, respectively, submitted an hours and was attended by most members fer to buy Gatoll Sulsse S.A. The pri Speaking to foreign reporters, Ivan Lap- wasn't disclosed. of the ruling Politburo. There was no other tev, Izvestia's editor, sought to play down speaker apart from the Soviet leader, and A spokesman for Gatoil said that t Mr. Gorbachev's criticism, but he ac- those attacked weren't given the opportu- Swiss oil concern was examining the off knowledged that his paper had been sin- nity to defend themselves. submitted last Friday, along with tv gled out. The Parliament yesterday ap- other offers, also submitted last we According to participants, Mr. Gorba- proved legislation that imposes new re Those two offers were private and t chev was particularly incensed by an arti strictions on the cooperative movement, spokesman refused to identify the biddi¹ cle on the front page of Argumenty i Fakty 1 enabling local authorities to set cellings for companies. this month that examined the popularity of prices and preventing the speculative The spokesman further said that members of the Soviet Parliament. The sale of goods in short supply for prices piece was based on a survey of 1,500 least two more offers are expected fr higher than that charged by the state. other companies within two weeks. Photo Copy Preservation THE WALL STREET JOURNAL THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 14, 1989 Back in the U.S.S.R. as the Storm Clouds Gather By MARTIN FELDSTEIN Although It is Illegal for Sovlets to trade they fear that price decontrol would lead to public has come to accept. rubles for foreign currency, this trading My second visit to the Soviet Union skyrocketing inflation. Such Inflation is po- Popular opposition to economic reform has become blatant. The official exchange within six months left two very clear and litically unacceptable in a nation where extends not only to the policies required to rate is $1.60, while the rate on the street is disturbing impressions. First, the Soviet Lenin's promise of price stability has been prevent inflation but to the basic market only 10 to 20 cents a ruble. repeated for more than 70 years. Moreo- economy is on the verge of collapse. And, reforms themselves. While most Soviet A primary cause of the shortages and ver, since Soviets do not own shares or second, in the current political environ- economists continue to recognize the ne- price rises is the government budget defi- ment, the economic deterioration cannot homes or other assets that would preserve cessity of price decontrol and movement cit, now estimated at more than 10% of continue for long without provoking a their value during Inflation, a rapid infla- toward a market economy, they report gross national product. Although a deficit sharp political change. tion would wipe out the life savings of ev- that these notions are not supported by the need not be Inflationary if it is financed by Ironically, the recent political reforms ery Sovlet citizen-hardly a propitious mass of Soviet people. Issuing bonds that crowd out private are making It particularly hard for the So- start for a government that wants to de- Sovlet citizens want a higher standard spending, the Soviets do not Issue bonds viets to achieve the economic reforms that velop confidence In capitalist ways! of living but do not see how that will follow but finance their deficits by adding to the they need. And yet It is the new politi- The prerequisite to price decontrol and from market forces. Instead they see price cash in the hands of Soviet workers. In a cal freedoms that will permit the public to the establishment of a market economy is reform as eliminating the subsidies on Western economy, such an excess infusion hold the political leadership accountable therefore appropriate anti-inflationary bread and rent and adding to a general for the economy's abysmal performance. price inflation that would lower their al- The Soviet Union's Inability to reconcile Board of Contributors ready low standard of living. And they un- economic reform and political freedom derstand that with fewer regulations some could cause a repressive political swing to Individuals will become much richer than the right In which both will be lost. others, in sharp conflict with their values. The increasing shortages of consumer Soviet citizens want a higher standard of living but do With democratization, such popular opposi- goods-both a symptom and a cause of the not see how that will follow from market forces. tion inevitably increases the political reluc- worsening economic situation-are de- tance to act decisively. stroying the already poor system of distri- Some Possibilities bution. Leningrad has had to issue ration of cash would cause prices to rise. Soviet macroeconomic policies. First, the excess coupons for soap, sugar and salt. Many experts privately estimate their inflation Infusion of cash by the budget deficit must The deteriorating economic conditions basic goods are no longer available to all. rate at nearly 10% even though most be stopped. Soviet officials acknowledge make the continuation of current policies And although consumer durables have ex- prices are not allowed to rise. And with this and say that they will cut the budget- very unlikely. One possibility is that the tremely high official prices, especially rel- only a limited number of prices free to In- ary money growth In half during the next leadership will accept the political risks of crease, the excess cash chasing a limited adopting radical reforms that simulta- ative to Soviet wages, they too have gener- year by a combination of reduced defense ally disappeared from the shelves. supply of goods causes shortages. outlays, Increased revenue from the sale of neously contain Inflationary pressures and move toward a market economy. Or, Mr. Black Markets The fear of future Inflation encourages imported consumer goods, and the use of people to spend their savings before the ru- bond finance. But eliminating a budget Gorbachev might lose power to a politician The rise of nationalism is also contrib- ble's purchasing power decreases even fur- deficit of 10% of GNP will not be possible prepared to adopt the needed reforms. uting to the economic breakdown. The Bal- ther. With the interest rate limited to only without raising taxes, cutting subsidies or But there is a darker possibility. The tic states and other Soviet republics are 3%, any kind of good that can be stored for reducing the already low standard of pub- Soviet public and many of those in govern- preventing the shipment of locally made- future use Is a better Investment than lic services. Any such painful changes will ment or military circles may conclude that products to other parts of the Sovlet Union money In the bank. Inevitably be criticized in the press and re- Inflation, shortages, strikes and corruption and denying Soviet citizens who are not lo- But the shortages reflect declines in flected In votes against Communist Party are all evidence that the Gorbachev gov. cal residents the right to buy things in production as well as Increases in demand. candidates in contestable elections. ernment Is too weak. They may yearn for their stores. The Moscow government has One cause of the reduced output is the new Even more important than deficit re- a government that can bring back price retallated by announcing that Soviet citi- system of factory management in which duction is raising the interest rate that stability, crack down on black marketeers zens from other republics who visit Mos- managers are elected by the workers and households receive on their bank deposits. and stop the nationalist political move- cow may not buy consumer durables, Im- have some discretion over pay and work That rate must be high enough SO that ments. Such a political change could spell ported products and other desirable goods requirements. Without the discipline from households will want to leave their past the end of economic perestroika and of po- that may happen to be available. owners or creditors, managers have ralsed savings In the bank when prices are decon- litical liberalization. The very fear of such This disintegration of the regular mar- wages and met production quotas by ac- trolled, rather than spending them and a political ouster might make Mr. Gorba- ket in consumer goods encourages black counting gimmicks. In addition, workers thereby bidding up the prices of available chev and his colleagues adopt a tougher, markets and widespread corruption. The and farmers whose Income Is related to less reform-oriented stance themselves. goods. At a minimum, that Is likely to re- Soviets readily acknowledge that retailers their own effort frequently have cut back Those of us who want to see an increase quire an interest rate that exceeds the in- and others involved in the distribution sys- because the rubles that they would earn by flation rate, a substantial rise from the In pluralism, democracy and market tem help themselves to consumer goods extra effort are of such limited value. current token rate of Interest. Such a rise forces in the Soviet Union can only hope that can be sold on the black market for What Is needed to rescue the Soviet In Interest payments would be unpopular that the current government will have the much more than official prices or, better economy Is a radical reform of the price- with a Soviet public raised on the commu- courage to adopt the needed reforms be- yet, for dollars or other hard currency. setting process and a move toward a much fore It Is too late. nist ideology that all capital Income is un- The combination of shortages and of more market-oriented economy. Mr. Gor- fair. Moreover, since the ownership of sav- rapklly rising prices for the limited range bachev's economic advisers recognized Ings Is highly concentrated, paying higher Mr. Feldstein, former chairman of the of goods for which price Increases are per- that two years ago but have now aban- Interest rates would conflict with the egall- president's Council of Economic Advisers. mitted Is destroying the value of the ruble. doned those proposed reforms because tarian standard of fairness that the Soviet is a professor of economics at Harvard. or made. .00 deap DR- However, the annual 2 percent decline in ........ planning assump- See BUDGET, Page 8 U.S., Soviets Nearer eficit To Open Skies Deal ading were discussed By PETER ADAMS Defense News Staff Writer it a White House meet- that while the Open Skles pro veen Defense Secretary WASHINGTON Aircraft posal is being negotiated sepa- nency and other adminis- equipped with a variety of in- rately from the conventional Ticials, according to frared sensors, cameras and arms-and the chemical weap- sources. The redue- radar could be flying over any ons talks, the flights could be subtracted from corner of the United States a valuable addition to any in defense sand Soviet Union by next year arms control verification Rea- part of an Open Skies regime. treaty In February, U.S. State De- A senior level administra partment and Soviet Foreign tion official said that the Unit- :ne Ministry officials will begin ed to ed States and Soviet Union are working out the details of an :e. It is negotiating the details of an Open Skies treaty that could service Open Skies treaty that could be signed by the middle of the h 1996, include two to three flights a year. Any of the 16 NATO and 1 Penta- week anywhere over the Sovi- seven Warsaw Pact nations et Union and reciprocally one also can sign up, all, re- flight a week over any part of The U.S. Arms Control and pro- the United States, Disarmament Agency said So- In briefing last Tuesday in viet working groups respond Washington, the official said 9 See SKIES, Page, 26 Photo Copy Preservation brown fanuscape at officially adopt it and begin tervals. The West's enthusiasm for these Please sec ETHIOPIA, A8 10/23/89 patting the reforms into effect. Please see LEBANON, A7 Muscovites Hoard Goods as Consumer Crisis Grows buy anything that's available." By MASHA HAMILTON In Moscow, the city to which TIMES STAFF WRITER much of the rest of the country MOSCOW-10 was fear that travels for shopping sprees, a firm A drove Valentina Grebenschikov to conviction has grown this fall that stand in line to buy two packages for the consumer things are worse of imported razor blades for which than almost ever before. she had no use, the same anxiety Ask for anything from shampoo that made her, for the first time in to shoes, and the salesman is likely memory, salt away in her cup- to reply "Nyet." boards extra sacks of flour and rice While long lines and emply against Moscow's long winter. stores have long been an inescapa- It was fear, she explained, of ble part of life in the Soviet Union, ever-emptier store shelves, of ru- staggering shortages today in what mors of total government rationing always have been considered the of food and energy, of a downward basics are sparking unprecedented spiral in day-to-day living condi- panic buying, Muscovites say. tions that shows no signs of abat- And as people grow more wor- ried and anxious, they also grow photo Copy Preservation ing. "It has gotten more difficult in increasingly disillusioned with the last two months. There are President Mikhail S. Gorbachev's shortages in practically everything policy of perestroika, the restruc- right now," said Grebenschikov, a turing of Soviet society, which has 44-year-old economist and mother been unable so far to improve their of two. "So, for the time being, I Please see HOARD, A9 I.OS ANGELES TIMES COLLEGE DEGREE HOARD: Moscow Consumer Crisis BACHELOR'S MASTER'S DOCTORATE For Work, Life and Academic Experience No Classroom Attendance Required for '89 Continued from A1 broad range of consumer goods Many Muscovites say that, in New Call (213) 471-0306 economic plight. that initially were caused by a preparation for winter, they are 12.0 or send detailed resume "Gorbachev says we are on the breakdown in the transportation now storing nonperishable food, for Free Evaluation OUTSTANDING OFALER verge of a crisis, but he is wrong. network and a dip in production in just in case. Here their voices often trail off, but the implication is Pacific Western University LA CO. 213 We are already in a crisis," said some industries, according to Sovi- 600 M Sapulveda Blvd Dept. Angeles Callf 90049 ORANGE CO. 714 34-year-old Tatyana Otson of et economic analysts. clear. What If there are shortages Kiev, who came to Moscow to buy Other factors cited as possibly in the critical items, things that winter clothes for her three chil- contributing to the barren store have always been available except dren. "I'm not worried about me. shelves are outright sabotage by during times of war? I'll survive. But I am worried about conservative opponents of peres- "I personally feel a sinking feel- OFF the future of my children." troika and the raised expectations ing, almost a physical sensation of Gorbachev himself acknowl- of consumers, who are buying going under,' Berger said in an edged that, despite a 10% increase more of certain products than they interview. "People like me, don't 68-4-11 Thrift in consumer goods available for ever did before. have any trust any more, any faith sale this year-three or four times Glaring shortages in basic items that the government is going to get the annual increases of the past- such as soap and matches are them out of this. They aren't 35% KITC "our shops are empty.' caused primarily by panic-buying, confident that what they sce on the "Sales are up 10%. There is too according to Mikhail L. Berger, one shelves today will be there tomor- much money chasing the goods," of the country's most respected row. So, almost without thinking, he told journalists at a U.S. trade economic commentators. Berger, they just buy.' show last week. "We did not pay who works for the government Economist Grebenschikov is a CABINET sufficient attention to this new daily Izvestia, points out that pro- case in point. She saw a line outside Let our kitchen cabinet refacing experts give you development at the right time, and duction of these items is no less her office and found out people existing cabinets. Select from a wonderful choice this has caused many uncontrolled than it was before and generally is were waiting to buy the imported oak. All our work is prepared in our factory and fu problems and uncertainties. greater. razor blades. "Customers are hoarding these Fear of the loss of basic, every- "They were just snapping them FOR SHOP AT Ho days, and of course there are day goods became widespread in up," she recalled. shortages," he continued. "For us So, although her husband has a Valley: (818) 994-2180 L.A., Moscow last month when families, (213) today, the market is our No. 1 returning from vacation, found no full beard and the family does not problem." school notebooks on sale for their even own a disposable razor, she The shopping hysteria and children. The absence of something found herself rushing downstairs hoarding of the last several weeks so commonplace, which had always when the line had shortened to buy have magnified shortages in a been available, set off alarms. Please see HOARD, A10 ETHIOPIA: Donor Fatigue a Problem Continued from A8 tivized, about four times the ratio projects that exchange food for farmers are now villagized, mean- in the rest of the country, in the work promoting development. ing they have been moved from space of two years. There are still many complica- their scattered homes into small Meanwhile, the Swedes saw that tions-hindering a genuine expan- communities, where they are given government agricultural extension sion of the food-for-work concept. some common tools and permitted agents, who at the outset were One is the problem facing any to till modest private plots. helping to train the farmers in the similar proposal in the United In some cases, villagization is use of modern equipment and States to make welfare recipients useful, say agronomists, because it cropping techniques, "from the be- work: How does one avoid depriv- makes available tools and equip- ginning of the 1980s were con- ing the disabled or sick of food? ment that farmers could not other- cerned less and less with technical Another is the need to avoid wise afford. But few of the experts assistance and more with political make-work. have such good words for collec- propaganda," Stenson said. "Unless the thing is useful, you livization, a Soviet-style program Over the last 18 months, some might as well just give the food to that strips the farmers of all pri- government agricultural policies them," said the World Food Pro- vate holdings and binds them to have been liberalized. The prices gram's Morton. He alludes to a work for their collective. paid farmers by the government euculyptus project that planted the It's a system that has been marketing board, to which they wrong trees on the wrong land: "If acknowledged as a failure in the must sell a certain share of their you get a couple of thousand people two places where it was created, crop, have been raised, encourag- planting trees [which] all die, it China and the Soviet Union, and ing farmers to grow more. Rules will be hard to get them to plant today exists in its unalloyed form that prohibited the shipment of trees again." only here, perhaps the least suita- grain across provincial borders, Many Western donors also resist ble place in the world. which contributed to famines by such unconventional proposals as "Collectivization requires good hampering the distribution of food to sell the food they contribute in management because there is no from places where it was abundant Ethiopian markets, then use the individual incentive, and that's to those where il was scarce, have cash to pay workers in places here precisely what this country doesn't been lifted. where a cash economy still exists. have," Stenson said. Although some Western agrono- But many Ethiopians do not One region that did have man- mists say the changes are too share these misgivings. ri-oriented farmers, how- gradual to mean much, some do- "We should put people to work 8 Arsi, because the Swedes nors, including the European Com- to improve the land,' said Ghirmai of them. The government munity and the World Bank, view Woldu, chief project engineer 1 age of that to Institute them positively enough to Increase the Ethiopian Catholic Secretaria intedly rapid collec- development aid. But many still which is financing the Embatekalla he project. More than think a more efficient use of their water project. "What should we be, THE BRO armers were collec- money is to support the small-scale always a nation of beggars?" LOS ANGELES TIMES HOARD: Shortages Worsen in Moscow Continued from A9 some blades to take home. "Maybe we will give them to someone as a gift," she said, "or trade for some- thing we need." Irina Popov, 29, is another exam- plc. She was standing in a long line in GUM, the Soviet Union's largest department store, just across from the rust-colored Kremlin walls, waiting to buy an iron for 7 ru- bles-or about $11 at the official exchange rate. "Sure, I already have an iron," she said with a smile. "But what If it breaks? I always try to buy extras. I'll probably buy two to- day." Soviet officials, for their part, pin primary blame for the shortages on the distribution system. More than 2 million tons of imported goods bought with scarce foreign currency are sitting in Soviet ports waiting to be unload- ed, First Deputy Premier Lev Vo- ronin told the Supreme Soviet, the country's Parliament, earlier this month. That includes about 25,000 tons of food, which is rotting where it sits, as well as spare parts for trucks that are broken down and thus cannot be used to unload the trains and ships, Prime Minister Nikolal I. Ryzhkov noted later on national television. Strikes, including a three-week walkout last summer at the coun- try's biggest coal field, also hurt. Power stations have 4.5 million ROBERT D. TONSING fewer tons of coal on hand than at Muscovites line up at a produce market; on this occasion, only some small melons were available. this time last year, Voronin said, warning that rationing of heat and will grow and perestroika will fail. be more closely linked to what he Asked to name the items currently electricity may be necessary this Pravda, in its brief front-page referred to as a mentality of depen- winter. unavailable or in short supply in article raising the possibility of dency dating from the time of the "I have an image that we are GUM, deputy director Svetlana N. sabotage, reported that 13,500 czars. riding in a communal taxi cab and Shevyakov laughed. It would be freight cars packed with much- "People are used to being told by the meter is ticking away and easier, she said, to list the goods needed consumer goods were wait- Moscow: how much sugar they that shoppers are able to find in the when it stops, we will all stop," ing in railway yards across the should put in the cake they bake in store. Berger said. "But right now I hear country, and the paper wondered Vladivostok," he said, referring to "Just now, you can buy costume that ticking all the time. It drives why they were not being unloaded. the Pacific port city in Siberia. "In jewelry, purses, fabrics, plates and me crazy.' "Pravda correspondents saw the past, everything always had to cups," she added, but all winter But why are failures in the with their own eyes unloaded be resolved in one place, in one clothing was "deficit," the word transportation system so much freight trains that had brought to building, practically in one office. used for "in short supply.' greater this year than last? One Moscow imported furniture, COS- "Now that Gorbachev is encour- Shevyakov noted, however, that word is on nearly everyone's lips. metics, coffee, tea, soap, shampoo, aging them to work on their own, higher consumer expectations have At first it was only whispered in washing powder and Soviet-pro- people simply are producing less," contributed to the problem because the streets and hissed by people duced television sets, refrigerators, he said. "The ruble doesn't buy Soviet people are seeing for the standing in lines, but last week the batteries and cigarettes," the them anything, so they don't feel first time, because of Gorbachev's Communist newspaper Pravda newspaper said. "More goods are any motivation." asked on its front page "Is this policy of glasnost, or greater open- stored in depots or are simply Because there is so little to buy, sabotage?" ness, the wide range of consumer outside without anything to protect people rarely take a shopping list goods available in the West. Many people in the capital be- them from the weather. with them when they go to the lieve that conservatives who op- "A man used to want one pair of Berger discounted the sabotage store. It is less frustrating, they pose Gorbachev are purposely shoes for autumn and one pair for theory, saying that although the say, simply to scout out what is on making things difficult for con- winter. Now he wants three pairs population is cager to find a villain, the shelves. for each season-and he can't find sumers so that public frustration the country's economic woes can But even that is often tricky. them," she said. COLOR TV Photo Copy Preservation Nixon, popular Villiam The New Dead Sea in Soviet Central Asia of Oak- ogram, By DAVID McCLAVE Three large deserts, the Kyzyl Kum, the the region an ecological disaster area. istic be- Kara Kum and the Barsuki, surround the Next, a resolution was passed last Septem- position In the past 30 years, the geologic equiv- Aral Sea. To turn them into fertile and pro- ber mandating measures aimed at halting of pro- alent of a millisecond, one of man's most ductive land, the engineers built the 800- the region's environmental decline. derable devastating assaults upon nature has de- mile-long Kara Kum Canal, the linchpin of Since then, the Aral region has hosted cal offi- stroyed what was once the world's fourth a woefully ill-conceived water redistribu- at least two high-powered, high-profile "He's largest lake, the Aral Sea in Soviet Central tion plan. groups of Soviet politicians, writers, scien- ndously Asia. In the course of a generation, its By the late 1970s, this giant irrigation tists and lawyers. For example, the ARAL- level has fallen 40 feet-losing one-third of ditch was fully operational and siphoning 88 Expedition completed its 69-day mission its area and 60% of its volume. Measured commu- off enormous quantities of one of the sea's to Soviet Central Asia last October. The ex- ct where another way, the lost waters of the Aral two source rivers, the Amudarya. This ca- pedition, led by writer Grigoriy Rezni- l'. Hidden Sea (called a sea because of its size and nal has poured SO much water into the des- chenko, submitted its report this May. Pre- fierce storms) would fill Lake rant pro- viewing its conclusions, in an in- Erie. ) Oakland As recently as 1973, the Aral Aral'sk U. S. S. R. terview following the expedition, alization." Sea, straddling the border be- BAESERI Mr. Reznichenko stated that "as NII in Oak- a biological object the Aral Sea tween the Soviet Central Asian ty's newest town" is a republics of Kazakhstan and Uz- Arul bekistan, supported commercial Muynak Surdorpo has perished." Other conclu- Sea sions: Life expectancy is plum- I Township meting in the region; infectious shipping and a thriving fishing diseases, especially hepatitis, it is to "pur- industry that supplied 10% to DESERT KARA king are nearing epidemic levels; and located in a 15% of the Soviet Union's fresh- unemployment is on the rise with oodison is so water catch. The major ports of CHINA the loss of traditional local ive a traffic Aral'sk in the northeast and Ashkhabad trades and professions. Muynak in the south were linked America.ru DESERT XTXYL KUM At the Congress of Peoples' because it by steamships that traveled the IRAN Kara Kum Deputies in Moscow in late loan Buser, 220-mile-route between them. 0 100 Canal PAKISTAN spring, the Aral Sea disaster was an supervi- By 1987 these once active Miles AFGHANISTAN one of the most frequently cited dison, what ports were 25 to 30 miles from items on a long list of Soviet eco- lage. It's not the receding water. Rusting freighters and ert that the city of Ashkhabad has resorted logical calamities. It is clear that some an enigma." fishing boats littered the newly formed to flood-control barriers for protection. help is on the way. However, given the per- na, but HUD sand dunes nearby. Fishermen cast their Withdrawals from the Amudarya and Syr- sistent, expensive aftereffects of the Cher- iship an $11,- nets out for the last time in 1983. Salinity, darya increased SO much that not a drop of nobyl nuclear plant explosion and the Ar- erest charges which had more than doubled, killed off their water reached the sea in 1985-86. menian earthquake, the Soviets will be Goodison His- most of the sea's aquatic life. To preserve In the finest traditions of Soviet monu- hard pressed to finance the rescue effort, grant to con- employment in Muynak and Aral'sk, the desertbound canneries now process frozen mentalism, several years ago another "na- estimated at 25 billion to 30 billion rubles. ents" at the fish shipped from the Atlantic and Pacific ture-conquering" proposal was approved to Perhaps it would be best to do what one fix the damage from the first project. impassioned speaker at the Congress sug- ly for more oceans. Dwarfing anything conceived by the Ten- gested: Make the restoration of the Aral S and com- Each year 47 million tons of dust and ounty. Over- salt from the exposed bottom are blown nessee Valley Authority, plans were drawn Sea a critical project of international di- over and deposited in the cotton fields and up to divert portions of north-flowing Sibe- saster relief. received by deserts surrounding the sea. The salt, com- rian rivers through a long and broad ca- S under the nal-the Sibaral. The water was to be Mr. McClave is a research analyst in lion-is spent bined with enormous quantities of pesti- pumped down more than 600 miles from Soviet and East European affairs at the how. cides applied to the fields, makes a poi- the Ob-Irtysh system far to the northeast. Library of Congress. ded by HUD sonous mixture. Everything from drinking water to mothers' milk is contaminated. A A rough analogy would be pumping the buld be paid pipeline to bring drinkable water from afar Mississippi waters at New Orleans up to ir- gh millages. is frantically under construction. Infant rigate West Texas. This canal was to pro- THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. $161,649 in mortality in the region has climbed to the vide relief to water-deficient parts of So- cal year for highest levels in the world. viet Central Asia and replenish the Aral Warren H. Phillips Peter R. Kann rovements." Sea, the plight of which had become pain- Chairman Publisher & President bolishing the One of the greatest ecological disasters fully obvious to the three million people 't have a ma- of the 20th century, it turns out, was no ac- living in its environs. Norman Pearlstine Robert L. Bartley es not make cident. In the 1950s and 1960s, the Kremlin Managing Editor Editor 1 HUD funds decided to make the Soviet Union a leading Mikhail Gorbachev canceled this proj- George Melloan producer of cotton by dramatically ex- ect early in his tenure as Communist Party Paul E. Steiger Deputy Editor, panding the area in Central Asia under ir- general secretary, a decision hailed as a Deputy Managing Editor Editorial Page ility to tax it- rigation and cultivation. Some oútspoken major victory for the fledgling Soviet envi- Kenneth L. Burenga scientists and engineers expressed serious ronmental movement. However, the un- General Manager to some of reservations about the wisdom of this plan. folding ecological disaster that prompted Bernard T. Flanagan Dorothea Coccoli Palsho Bob Carr, a Vice President, the diversion scheme would not abate. It Vice President, But the leadership openly proclaimed that Marketing Circulation ludes part of the Aral Sea, an oasis in the Soviet Union's now seems likely that the part of the Aral F. Thomas Kull Jr. Charles F. Russell most arid region, was a dispensable re- Sea that escapes desertification will be a Vice President, Vice President, ing eligibility Production source that could be bartered at cost for mere cluster of lifeless, briny lakes by the Technology He supports crops, especially cotton and rice. Glasnost year 2010. areas such Published since 1889 by and rising environmental consciousness in ect. 'For an To its credit, the Soviet government has the Soviet Union have revealed the terrible DOW JONES & COMPANY, INC. dwindling belatedly taken several steps to repudiate consequences of this miscalculation. its earlier positions, such as that of a dep- Editorial and Corporate Headquarters: yourself 200 Liberty Street, New York, N.Y. 10281. Soviet engineers and scientists were Mr. Carr uty minister who asserted that "the Aral Telephone (212) 416-2000 inding for taught by Stalin to "make no small plans." should die beautifully." First, it declared Warren H. Phillips, Chairman & Chief Executive; trict and Notable & Quotable We have hopes that 9/19/89 market forces will Peter R. Kann, President & Chief Operating Officer; y in need William L. Dunn, Executive Vice President; Kenneth L. Burenga, James H. Ottaway Jr., Carl M. Valenti, Senior Vice Presidents. Detroit, 1, "There Vice Presidents: Frank C. Breese III, Administration; at need to Desmond Watkins, a director of William R. Clabby, Information Services; Karen Elliott ould have Shell Petroleum, addressing the Inter- bring about fundamental changes in the House, International; Donald L. Miller, Employee that don't national Business Conference in Lon- U.S.S.R. So with South Africa. The present Relations; Kevin J. Roche, Finance; Peter G. Skinner, don last October: South African state system is protectionist, Corporate General Counsel; Sterling E. Soderlind, ith HUD's bureaucratic, inefficient and wasteful. In Planning. John S. Goodreds, president, Ottaway I believe that most genuinely interna- Newspapers. h enriches this it is anti-business. Left to itself the tional businesses, certainly Shell, share Associate Editor: Laurence G. O'Donnell. expense. market system will seek to develop the most of the objectives of the anti-apartheid black community and market, train black Washington News and Sales Office: campaign. Apartheid is incongruous with businessmen, develop black entrepreneurs, 1025 Connecticut Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20036 ty resident, the aims and practices of business; capital Telephone (202) 862-9200 sweep away the artificial prejudices and arch at the SUBSCRIPTIONS AND ADDRESS CHANGES is colorblind and the search for profit and distinctions which inhibit economic suc- should be sent to The Wall Street Journal, 200 Burnett Mich. economic growth is a rationalizing force. Road, Chicopee, Mass. 01020, giving old and new cess. address. For subscription rates see Page A2. Photo Copy Preservation 9/23/89 THE BOSTON HERALD, SA JEANE KIRKPATRICK The Cold War isn't over just yet T HERE Is something va- their economics, they acknowl- zambique, Vietnam, Laos, and guely frivolous about the accord was signed (in April '88) edge that it needs elements of a so forth. It is the resistance the supply was stopped. They great debates now under free market. movements - the Mujahedeen, preferred a deal with Moscow way among American commen- Nonetheless, a good many the KPNLF (Cambodia's demo- on Afghanistan." tators concerning whether we states - including the USSR it- cratic forces), UNITA, the Con- have "won" the Cold War, His group has faced two self, all the Warsaw Pact coun- tras that have been stopped arms cutbacks and decreased whether Communism Is "fin- tries except Hungary and Po- In their tracks. Ished," whether the Idea of effectlveness. Now the U.S. gov- land, China, North Korea, This brings us to the third Freedom has triumphed. ernment says It was "a mis- Ethlopia, Cuba, Vietnam, Nica- contradiction: The ambivalence take." It has been a heady exper- ragua, et al. - still centralize of U.S. policy and the Bush ad- lence to hear the leader of the In Angola, the forces of Gen. their economies and vest con- ministration in the effort to ex- Jonas Savimbl are also con- Kremlin describe the problems trol of everything in "the van- pand freedom. and failures of his system and fronting critical shortages. The guard of the proletariat," that George Bush has repeatedly adopt Western strategies for State Department assured Sa- is, In the leaders of their na- expressed support for "freedom dealing with them. It has been a vimbl's forces (and perhaps tional communist parties. fighters" who struggle against heady experience to hear him South Africa's government) The discrepancy between the Marxist governments and In- encourage liberalization In that UNITA could be resupplied Ideal and the roal, between corporation of their country Hungary, Poland and the Soviet through Zaire In case of South theory and practice. Invites un- Into the Soviet world empire. African withdrawal from Nami- Union Itself. It is nearly enough wary optimists to imagine that But during his relatively brief to make cockeyed optimists of bia. But now that resupply route the world has changed a groat tenure In power, each of the re. us all. la sald to be endangered. In deal more than It has. sistance movements has suf- But in fact the evidence on spite of the improved relations It is true that the trend is fered setbacks to which U.S. pol- between Zaire's ruler and the these questions Is more mixed toward a freer society. It is pos- icy has made a direct than most current American State Department. It la not clear sible we may strengthen that contribution. whether UNITA will receive the comment Implies. trend with wise policy. But the Today State Department of- Three major contradictions Stingers it desperately needs to struggle is not over. The out- ficials explain off the record have developed in the course of fend off a new offensive by Cu- come Is not certain. And It is that "Washington" believed So- the broad struggle between the ba's troops, who have not yet always Imprudent to assume a viet troop withdrawal meant an withdrawn. forces of freedom and unfree- victory that has yet to be end to Soviet ambitions for con- dom. These contradictions need achieved. trol of Afghanistan. They ex- It Is, as the Marxists like to to be taken into account in as- Some observers consider pected, one high official ex- say, no coincidence that the sessing who won, or indeed, who that liberalizing trends in the KPNLF and the contras also plained, "that Moscow really is winning: Soviet Union and Eastern Eur- was looking for little more than cannot fight because they do not . The contradiction between ope are proof enough that the a decent Interval," between have the necessary arms and what Hegel and Marx called Cold War is over and the West troop withdrawal and the col- ammunition. Or that the admin- "the ideal" and "the real"; has won. But they Ignore the lapse of the Najibullah govern- istration has recently aban- . The contradiction between second major contradiction: ment. doned Its efforts to send $3 mil- what is happening at the center That between the center and the llon to the democratic Apparently, It never OC- of the Soviet empire and at its periphery. curred to them that Soviet troop opposition candidate for presi- periphery; and It is true that under Mikhall withdrawal meant a new phase dent of Nicaragua - while the . The contradiction within Gorbachev more freedom of of competition. So naturally Soviet Union continues ald at American foreign policy be- speech, press and assembly they were surprised that the So- previous levels. tween the desire to support re- have been granted to the Soviet viet Union still provides $200 to Deputy Secretary of State sistance movements and the de- people than anyone predicted. It $300 million a month in weapon- Lawrence Eagleburger offered sire to negotiate political is true that more independence ry to prop up "its" government an original explanation that settlements. has already been tolerated In In Afghanistan. And naturally links current retreats to the An accurate assessment of Hungary and Poland than any- "end of the Cold War" thesis. where we are requires under- the Mujahedeen, facing a criti- one expected. It is also true that cal shortage of ammunition, Both superpowers, Eagleburger standing these contradictions. the people of these countries have found It difficult to hold suggested, crossed the "finish First, the contradiction be- have seized the freedom offered their ground. line" "very much out of breath" tween "the Ideal," the domain of them. ideas, and "the real," the mater- Like other rebel leaders, the and are faced with "a frankly Wonderful. Ial world. Mujahedeen's Gulbydin Hekma- diminished capacity to in- But at the periphery of the tyr blames the United States for fluence events," It is true that the Idea of "world socialist system," the much of the resistance's prob- I hope that during Eduard freedom has triumphed in the forces of repression remain Iem. West. Almost everyone, includ- Shevardnadze's visit, Secretary strong and are actually grow- ing the current rulers of the "The American government of State James Baker and Law- ing. is responsible for Najibullah's rence Eagleburger make him Kremlin, pay verbal homage to The Soviet Union's non-Eur- government not falling," he told understand that the Soviet Un- government by the people. opean client governments re- Washington Post correspondent lon Is really too tired and too Whatever form of politics they main firmly entrenched In Lally Weymouth recently. "Sud- practice, they call It democra- broke to support an empire. Cuba, Ethiopia, Yemen, Afghan- cy. And however they organize denly we face a shortage of am- Then we could talk about the istan, Nicaragua, Angola, Mo- munition. Just after the Geneva triumph of freedom. Photo Copy Preservation kia. Moscow withdrew the threat of the Communism understood that if ever foul prisons. revolt. captors. time. can NO Some European fighters against confusion, no "moral the Iron Curtain there was no such different kinds of exploitation. Behind capitalism and Communism just ethical difference between Western Many preached that there was no tion' was just propaganda. thought even the phrase "captive na- place never truly understood. They erners who interpret what is taking scured is that so many of the West- One of the reasons this truth is ob- century of struggle. "Why, how fast. revolution to say after almost a half- lack of grace to all who fought the It is a distortion of truth and cruel and 60's in Hungary and Czechoslova- every decade in Poland, in the 1950's crushed by Soviet power almost One after another, uprisings were one can even guess, spent decades in lions. More millions, how many no for fighting against Soviet rule, mil- Men and women were murdered nations, the fight against it began. Soviet empire swallowed the captive Stalin. Almost from the moment the was created by V. Lenin d Joseph That is that the revolution of 1989 and Eastern Europe know. knows and all the people of Central nothing from his role to say what he about by Mikhail Gorbachev. It takes chronicling. The revolution was not brought tory unfolds, it can be distorted in the stand what is is happening. Even as his- The first step helping is to under- revolution against it? despotism, which creates ceaseless comes not from freedom but from Can't we remember that instability bling slow, slow, to the prisoners in are fearful of instability, are mum- some of the governments of the West before it comes to full fruit. Already even if it is not reversed, can wither Second, without help the revolution, chologically identify them with their Westerners forget this truth and psy- prisonment makes so many other ing is that the very fact of their im- ironies of their long period of suffer- ture and history. One of the sad always been part of the West in cul- Most of the nations in revolt have ideals that they draw strength. surging nations look and from West- to the West that the people of the First, this is revolution, too. It Is the most important questions of our For at least two reasons, is one of MY tions escaping captivity? What lution sweeping through the na- ow can we help the great revo- MIND at home. one thing. ing it still, in the crumbling empire to all who fought are fight- munism not cowardice. a duty Caution against preserving Com- Mr. Gorbachev. IIIIS may technological and political power goes before we commit our economic, We have time to see which way he them o power. preserve the system that brought halt the reforms and tighten up to decide to go the other way at home and the Communist apparatus may But more likely, Mr. Gorbachev the Soviet Army to keep it alive, even kills initiative and needs the power of the existing Soviet system, which growing out of creative energy and perestroika real economic change They tell him he cannot have both him what he most dislikes to hear. privately from some people around Already Mr. Gorbachev is hearing eager to live their own lives. at least some of the nationalities so agreement to political separation by system, an unshackled economy and Union the creation of a multiparty essential to full freedom in the Soviet change his mind and take the steps it started. and when its goals its roots, Understand Perhaps Mr. Gorbachev will West is to take him at his word on this country. Peculiar how reluctant the the death of Communism in his own that he intend to preside over nism, Mr. Gorbachev says repeatedly are in revolution to destroy Commu- But while the once-captive nations and heritage. their Communist rulers. Doing so, we those peoples, who are overthrowing So help of all kinds should go to flipped out of political control. problems at home, and how quickly Soviet strength for the devastating jettison Eastern Europe to save do that, how soon he would have to quickly Mr. Gorbachev would have to But even they did not foresee how gimes would eventually collapse. captive nations, the satellite re- Red Army to put down the struggle of Helping the Revolution A25 A20 THE WALL STREET JOURNAL THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 16, 1989 POLITICS & POLICY The Winds of Change Battering Communism former Soviet satellites then would be given "nearly full sovereignty" that would guarantee their. independence. But they Tear Also at the Fabric of U.S. Conservatism would be barred from such actions as join- Ing any military alliance or allowing for- eign troops on their soll. This, Mr. Pines By ROBERT S. GREENBERGER contended, would allay Moscow's security Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL Lifting the Iron Curtain on domestic Issues. Howard Phillips, chair- concerns, particularly its fear that Ger- In WASHINGTON-For more than four man of the group. says the rumors are man troops might someday once again be decades, anti-communism has been the March 26 Soviet Union holds the false. on its border. As part of the deal, Moscow glue that held the conservative movement first competitive elections in its history The hard-liners have begun to press also would receive credits and other finan- together. But now the breathtaking col- for seats in its new parliament. their case with the Bush administration, cial help as It restructures Its economy. tapse of the enemy Is provoking a bitter Aug. 24 Polish lawmakers elect which has adopted a cautious approach to- Mr. Pines's article prompted a barrage fight among victors on the political right. Solidarity activist Tadeusz Mazowiecki ward the startling changes under way In of criticism In the magazine's next Issue. Hard-liners want to strike the final blow as the East Bloc's first non-Communist the communist world. At meeting earlier Mr. Pines's Idea is based on "extremely against the ailing "evil empire." even to prime minister. this month of the Stanton Group, a regular dubious" assumptions, complained Jeane the point of supporting the nationalist re- private gathering of hard-line conserva- Kirkpatrick, the Reagan administration bellions bubbling up within the Soviet Un- Oct. 18 Hungary's parliament tives, Brent Scowcroft, President Bush's ambassador to the United Nations. "Mis- lon Itself. Mainstream conservat want changes the country's name to national security adviser, was asked If the taken and self-contradictory," added An- to declare victory In the Cold War and of- Republic of Hungary. shucking its administration was seeking "the peaceful gelo Codevilla of the Hoover Institute, a fer Moscow a deal that guarantees Inde- East Bloc moniker of Peoples Republic dissolution of the Sovlet Union. He didn't conservative think tank in California. pendence for Eastern Europe and stability of Hungary. give a clear reply, according to one partic- across the continent. ipant. Long-Term Interest Oct. 18 East German Communist "This may be the the Issue that divides Party leader Erich Honecker. who Cautious Instincts The hard-liners strongly oppose helping conservatives, says Jack Wheeler, a supervised the building of the Berlin communist regimes. both because they Wall in 1961, is replaced by Egon The administration's cautious instincts hard-liner who conceived the Reagan Doc- don't believe Mr. Gorbachev is a true re- Krenz. put It on the side of the mainstream con- trine, the banner under which the previous former and because they worry that a new, servatives. To avoid the appearance of administration supported insurgencies Improved Soviet Union wouldn't be in the Nov. 9 East Germany declares the gloating over the chaos In the communist West's long-term interest. against Marxist Angola, Nicaragua and Af- end of restrictions on emigration or world, President Bush has Ignored critics ghanistan. Now, Mr. Wheeler wants to Mr. Phillips of the Conservative travel to the West. who are urging him to go to Berlin to show press the fight to the Ukraine and the Bal- Caucus, for Instance, notes that the Inter- tics. "The Sovlets are vulnerable and It Nov. 14 Czechoslovakian Premier support for the East German reform move- national Monetary Fund currently has a Ladislav Adamec announces that his ment. And Secretary of State James Baker ought to be our business to exacerbate mission In Poland and probably will dis- nation will permit its citizens to travel last weekend stressed that the U.S. has as- those vulnerabilities, he says. perse loans to Warsaw by year end. Mr. But Richard Perle, one of the most freely to the West beginning next year. sured Moscow that It won't take "unllat- Phillips argues that because Poland owes eral advantage" of the unraveling of the hard-line anti-Soviet U.S. foreign-policy money to the Soviet Union, the IMF. with Soviet empire. makers in the past decade, now assalls ized traditional Republicanism before the U.S. help. could Inadvertently be helping The disagreement among conservatives to subsidize Mr. Gorbachev. such tactics as "terribly dangerous. The rise of the "Red menace, while most was fueled this summer by Burton Pines, former Reagan administration official "You have to let the sickness run its hard-liners want to keep battling commu- senior vice president of the conservative says. "The prospect for successful rebel- nism abroad. These.contradictory positions course," contends Mr. Phillips. "To give Heritage Foundation. In an article In "Pol- lion in a place like the Ukraine is SO slim are dividing conservatives over major for- ald to communist governments Is, In ef- tcy Review, the organization's magazine; tatroheipthe-eancer-survive it." that it would be Irresponsible to encourage elgn-policy Issues, such as whether the Mr. Pines argued that the Cold War was Mr. Pines counters that the world is U.S. should aid ailing Marxist economies "melting" and It was time to cut a deal changing and that It Is time to take advan- Ironically, Soviet leader Mikhail Gorba- and whether to push for substantial U.S.- with the Sovlets to ensure future stabil- chev's reform efforts, which triggered the Soviet arms cuts. tage of emerging opportunities. "Every ity. turmoil In the communist world, also pro- free-market factory set up in a communist But the fight on the right Is over more Mr. Pines proposed that Moscow with- voked the debate here. "Gorbachev has country Is a virus that spreads democ- than ideology. "The conservative move- draw its troops from Eastern Europe. The made It respectable for the traditional con- racy," he says. ment raises money through fear, says one servatives to come out of the closet and right-wing activist. "Groups have to be say that Instead of being obsessed by the able to say, 'give me $25 or southern AF- communist threat we ought to be more rica will go communist, and that's getting concerned about America's needs," says harder to sell." Indeed. rumors are circu- Christopher Layne of the Cato Institute, a lating in conservative circles that some think tank that often reflects conservative groups, such as the Conservative Caucus, views on foreign-policy topics. already are having difficulties raising SH Many mainstream conservatives are re- funds, as some big-money conservative verting to the isolationism that character- backers begin to focus their attention more At Garn Institute, S&L Executives Get ANN To Rub Shoulders With U.S. Regulators By PAULETTE THOMAS Staff Reporter of THE WALLSTREET JOURNAL Senate Banking Committee. Dozens of in- KEY LARGO, Fla.-While the ethics dustry officials and lobbylsts bought spotlight is glaring on five U.S. senators plates, happily getting the ears of the offi- caught up in the burgeoning Lincoln Sav- cials determining the course of the land- ings & Loan Association scandal, Sen. Jake mark S&L law, the biggest financial over- Garn of Utah is quietly taking part In a haul since the 1930s. subtle form of influence peddling. Participation In Garn Institute functions The Garn Institute of Finance, estab- is open to contributors, of which the insti- lished as a think tank, has also become a tute has many from the thrift industry. magnet for S&L They Include Thomas Spiegel, chief execu- money and schmooz- tive officer of junk-bond thrift Columbia ing-not to mention Savings of Beverly Hills, Callf., who has a political power contributed $100,000 and who sits on the in- base and rare me- stitute's board of trustees. There' also " Photo Copy Preservation morial to a sitting vid Paul, chairman of Centrust U.S. Bank of Miami, which was TP senator. !! the Uni- by 20. Florida banking regular A: Mr. 1 VOL. CCXIV NO. 99 anic add II This resulted in what could have been a Struggling Reforms minor shortfall of some consumer goods, kets, but in the Soviet Union, the psychological The effects have been much greater: Peres- ahea How Gorbachev's Plan troika unwittingly helped touch off panic buying and hoarding. If soap were the only Item to disappear She Has Left Soviet Union on Mr. Gorbachev in this manner, Soviet broke consumers might grin and bear it. But ac- cut fc Without Much Soap Bu. cording to official figures, 1,000 of 1,200 ev- Amer eryday consumer goods in the Soviet Union are now in short supply. Public disgruntle- by sa{ B OEI Trying to Bring Efficiency, ment with perestroika has soared, influ- sett encing the government to spend a whop- chinists Perestroika Has Triggered ping $16 billion on emergency imports of Fec six-week- consumer goods this year. Among items push di Inflation, Panic Buying contract being purchased abroad are 1.5 billion ra- partly by a fe( zor blades, 170 million pairs of tights and 'wou) voted OI 40 million tubes of shaving cream. Mr. Gorbachev and his economic plan- tempi The Burden of Stalin's Legacy A settle. hers have now acknowledged that they Boeing miscalculated just how difficult reform anxious) would be. They are preparing for what the A 1 By PETER GUMBEL Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL compan Soviet president himself has called a more drugs MOSCOW-Back in the days when the radical stage of perestroika, one that they meet Soviet Union was thought of as an "Evil well know could cause further short-term dards, Empire" and run by septuagenarian hard- Grea upsets in the economy, harden conserva- liners, life was tough for the people, but at a sweet tive, opposition to the reform movement least they had soap. and perhaps even threaten Mr. Gorba- Market cific of Then came Mikhail Gorbachev, promis- chev's job. Stock The suit ing to change, the system, making the No Turning Back Jones in higher, tation 1, economy more efficient and consumer "We can neither return to the begin- goods more plentiful. Life here is still predict 1.32. thing, nor can we stop half-way," the Soviet tough and in some ways tougher: Now purchas Bonds leader told a meeting of Soviet economists there is precious little soap. ury inde last month. "We've already lost many People line up for hours outside stores Comn years." at the first hint that soap, detergent, wash- East 131.81, 11] But perestroika's own soap opera shows ing powder or tooth- Dollar to sell just how perilous it can be to tinker with paste might be for up 0.0005 Air. An an inflexible, centrally planned economy. sale. On the black to $500 A market economy would likely have been market, such items fetch three to four vance it able to adjust to the changes brought by the Soviet leader, but they caused portions times the official of the Soviet economy to break down. price and more. When the nation's Gen The story begins just before Mr. Gorba- coal miners went on chev took over in March 1985. Soviet plan- up to $ Abreast strike this summer, GORBACHEV'S ners. were confronting a nasty problem: Amex Ste years, more soap was one BROKEN too much soap. Ministries and the State Bond Da' of their main de- foreca Planning Commission were receiving let- Commod ECONOMY mands. In Septem- after a ters from government retail organizations Correctio ber, two policemen First of Two Articles also bo complaining that they had more soap than Credit Ma were stabbed when they tried to separate stock r they could cope with. Clearly, the forecasts Dividend DJ Indus Vietnamese and Russian workers who of supply and demand-based largely on Earning were fighting over bottles of shampoo. the previous year's production-were inac- Econom "In all my life I've never seen anything U.S curate. The time had come to "balance the Editoria like it," says Margarita Boyarskaya, a fourth market," as the planners like to call it. Enterpri cheery woman who has worked at Mos- So they cut. Imports were the big casu- Financin seven-\ cow's Svoboda soap factory for 30 years. slowdo alty. "They stopped buying because they Foreign Heard on For almost five years now, Mr. Gorba- said local production was sufficient," re- outlook Index Tr chev has been trying to revamp the mori- calls Ram S. Rastogi, president of Che- Interest bund Soviet economy with a blizzard of ini- owned mimpex, an Indian trading firm that was Int'l Ne tiatives and slogans known collectively as one of the Soviet Union's biggest foreign Law perestroika, or restructuring. suppliers. Until 1984, he says, Moscow had Bureaucratic red tape was to be cut, Non Please Turn to Page A14, Column 3 factory managers given more leeway to appart make their own decisions and a small New H amount of private entrepreneurship en- billion couraged. All this was supposed to make and re life better for the average Soviet citizen and cure a Soviet budget deficit bulging from decades of subsidizing inefficient fac- tories and farms. Lot But while few economists hold any rev- blund erence for the old system, and most agree that m it, had to be revamped to halt a troubling millio decline, Mr. Gorbachev's attempts. to stock make things better have yielded few posi- tive results and have at times made things Photo Copy Preservation worse. A Some factory managers, for example, recei took advantage of their new freedom by giving themselves and their employees big cong raises, boosting purchasing power at the still same time other managers were using parts their new-found freedom to raise prices and cut back production. A14 THE WALL STREET JOURNAL MONDAY. NOVEMBER 20, 1989 Sov ECON INTERNATIONAL Wholesale Trade in U.S.S.R. Remains Struggling Reforms: used to make the chemical sulphanol, The Plight of Soviet Consumers which in turn is one of 13 Ingredients that Negligible After 5 Years of Perestroika Soviet Soap Shortage Recent fast growth Outstrips growth in Fueling jump in go Into Soviet washing powder. Until re- in wages consumer goods inflation cently, sulphanol was the responsibility of Percentage change in wages a completely separate ministry from Mr. By PETER GUMBEL Tied to Gorbachev Estimated inflation-adjusted Estimated annual consumer most five years of perestroika. wholesale without adjusting for inflation percentage change in output price inflation in percent Aliev's. and its plants are hundreds of Staff Reporter of THE WALLSTREET JOURNAL trade remains negligible. of consumer goods miles away from the ones producing paraf- KHABAROVSK. U.S.S.R. The words 12% 12% 12% fin. They in turn are far from the ones Bureaucratic intrigue now threatens the "wholesale trade" may not make many Continued From First Page making washing powder. commercial centers, which have enjoyed Western hearts beat faster, but for Soviet bought 30,000 tons of detergent and 20,000 "Of course it would be better to produce growing success and expect to handle 10 10 10 reformers they represent one of the key el- tons of toilet soap every year from India paraffin at the same place as sulphanol,' trade transactions valued at about S4 bil- ements of perestroika-and one Important alone. Mr. Aliev says. But "I'm a specialist in lion this year. five times the amount in 8 8 At the same time, because soap was not 8 reason for its failure SO far. paraffin. don't have any responsibility for 1988. The head of Gossnab who initiated deemed a priority. life suddenly got harder sulphanol.' Under the centralized economic system, the centers, Lev Voronin, has recently bureaucrats In Moscow tell the nation's been promoted to a higher post in the gov- for soap producers. One aging factoryjin 6 6 6 Pressure to Produce factories what to produce and provide ernment, as deputy prime minister "for Moscow that was undergoing renovation, Mr. Aliev's bosses in the ministry are them with necessary raw materials. The its 50-year-old equipment in the midst of 4 4 4 general matters. His successor, Pavel now under terrific pressure to increase factories, in turn, pass their output back to Mostovoi, is reportedly far less supportive being replaced. suddenly found its funds production. That means Mr. Allev is, too. the bureaucrats. Soviet advocates of eco- of economic reform and is trying to close for modernization frozen, according to the 2 2 2 But he beams with a ready answer: From nomic reform reason that if only this verti- down the centers. director. Nikolai Leshchenko. Local au- the first of January next year, 100,000 tons cal structure could be broken, with plants thorities said they needed the money for 0 0 0 of high-quality liquid paraffin will be di- buying and selling directly to each other, Serge! Karnaukhov, a senior Gossnab something more pressing. 1980 85 '89' 1980 '85 '89' 1980 an embryonic market system would official, says the organization still supports verted to sulphanol production. And where The Svoboda plant in Moscow, the big- Source: PlanEcon Inc. *Estimate the centers, but "until the financial system does this paraffin go now? Mr. Allev pon- emerge in which prices. supply and de- gest soap-producer in the country, didn't ders before answering. "Microbiologists. mand all play a role. recovers, the state central organs should have equipment problems. But It was than they do excess stocks. Rationing was concentrate all resources in their ucts: the Ministry of Chemical Industry. It's used for making animal feed,' he To speed the process and help man- forced to battle with its customers in the hands." soon introduced almost everywhere. and the Ministry of Oil and Chemical Industry. says. So where will the microbiologists get Photo Copy Preservation agers adapt to new conditions, the Soviet retail organizations. "Two months before then the recriminations started. Last April. the Ministry of Fertilizer Production. the their supplies? He shrugs. Not his prob- government agency But Gossnab now has to fight to do SO. the soap crisis started, we had to persuade a plenary meeting of the Communist Party State Agro-Industrial Committee, the Min- lem. that allocates sup- Liberated by their freedom to do real busi- them to take it. recalls Mrs. Boyarskaya Central Committee accused the two chemi- Mr. Leshchenko. whose factory modern- ness, rather than just give orders, some istry of Machine Building and Ministries of plies to industry picking a bar off the table and smelling it) cal industry ministers of causing the trou- started nationwide 50 of these centers in October banded to- "The shops were overstocked and they Local Industry in the nation's 15 repub- ization was halted, says one committee af- ble. One of them shot back with a letter to lics. ter another has been coming to visit him, program to create gether to form their own association, inde- were rejecting any kind of soap.' Mr. Gorbachev saying that the retail peo- such wholesale pendent of Gossnab. Others are expected This year, the two chemical industry pounding on the table and demanding It took a couple of years for the soap ple were to blame. ministries were merged and the agro-in- more. He seems as close to breaking down system. In early to join by the time the association holds its crisis to actually set in. Despite Mr. Gor An official from the State Planning dustrial committee disbanded. But to make as his ancient equipment. 1988, the agency, first nationwide conference in mid Decem- bacher's efforts to introduce greater flexij Commission attacked the market research Gossnab, set up 140 ber. "Our first aim is to defend peres- bility, the Soviet system remains one char- things more complicated. its soap-related Meanwhile, at the big Svoboda plant. institute for not foreseeing the surge in de- troika,' says Valery Kosarev, president of functions have been split between regional managers finally added an extra shift this "commercial cen- GORBACHEV'S acterized by rigid planning and a danger- mand. 'No scientific research can foresee ters" that were to ous reliance on industrial monopolies. agricultural agencies and the Ministry of fall to cope with the increased demand. BROKEN the new association and, like most of his panic buying." sniffs Mr. Nefedov, claim- Medical Industry. But even now, the third shift takes place act as middlemen, ECONOMY colleagues. himself a former Gossnab offi- "The entire economy operates on the edge ing the Institute did warn someone in the The reason for such a jumble of organi- only three times week because of a short- bringing together in- cial. "A market for goods can't exist with- of crisis." says Anatoly Anshitz, a Soviet planning agency, who never passed it on. zations is largely historical, linked to the age of personnel. dustrial buyers and sellers and stimulating out us.' journalist who specializes in shortages. "It Mr. Gorbachev told the Soviet parlia- growth of centralized control of the econ- Why did it take S0 long to react? Chief the growth of wholesale trade. So far. five of the centers are consider- is geared to producing as little as neces ment this fall that the soap shortage was omy under Joseph Stalin. Although Mr. accountant Serget Loginov, in the middle One such center lies at the end of a ing pulling out from under Gossnab's juris- sary. the fault of the fledgling private-sector CO- Gorbachev has tried to cut back the bu- of proudly explaining how Svoboda is now bumpy dirt road on the edge of Kha- diction altogether, and Mr. Kosarev is fly- Given such conditions, it takes only one operative movement, something that he reaucracy, his measures have S0 far had over fulfilling its plan for soap production barovsk, an Industrial town in the Soviet ing around the country trying to drum up seemingly small breakdown to create enor began as part of perestroika but which has almost no effect. Following rough guide- by 10%, is taken aback by the question. Far East. Here Vitaly Shalduga, an ener- support for his cause. He hopes that as an mous problems. In the case of soap; it was become so unpopular with the people-be- lines given by the state planning commis- "We needed supplies of materials. We only getic 42-year-old former chemist, waxes independent organization, the association probably a dearth of sulphanol, a key in- cause of allegations of profiteering-that sion and the agency in charge of supplying started when we got guarantees that we enthusiastically about his job. "We must will be able to organize trade fairs, auc- gredient in washing powder. that set off a even Mr. Gorbachev himself often finds it materials, each ministry is still supposed would get the supplies," says the nervous, break the old psychology about producers tions and even a "trade bourse," where chain reaction. an easy target. to provide the necessary ingredients and humorless number-cruncher. The guaran- and consumers,' he says. "There can be buyers and sellers of equipment can do The nation's entire sulphanol production Amidst all the finger-pointing. the lum- equipment and oversee the operation of tees took months of negotiation between no perestroika without a wholesale mar- business directly. Some of the centers' comes from a single plant in the Azerbai- bering Soviet bureaucracy set about solv- plants under Its jurisdiction. the various ministries. ket.' managers refused point-blank when told by jan town of Sumgait. Trying to start up a ing the problem. Mr. Rastogi. the Indian With the help of East German com- Gossnab to provide It with all the informa- new line. the plant had been having trouble No Communication "It's a colossal task,' he says. "It all businessman, last year got an urgent call takes time." puters, Mr. Shalduga tries to match facto- tion they had gathered about local indus- meeting production targets, according to from the people who had cut him off a The trouble for the Soviet economy is ries and farms with equipment and goods try's needs. They said the details were Soviet officials. Ethnic unrest also proba- !few years previously. "It was distress buy- that communication and coordination be- Bass PLC they want to buy or sell. He also has commercial secrets. bly played a role. In March 1988, growing Sing. he chuckles. "They wanted any tween these bodies is almost nonexistent staged auctions of such hard-to-find items In early November, Mr. Mostovol, the tension between Azerbaijan and the neigh- Quantity available. This year, Soviet im- because some of the ministries are rivals Bass PLC, London, declined to com- as roofing tiles,with his center picking up new head of Gossnab, sent- Invitations to boring republic of Armenia erupted on the ports of soap and detergents will total and because, well, some reasons just defy ment on a weekend news report suggesting a small commission fee for each successful representatives of the association, intend- streets of Sumgait and at least 30 people more than 200,000 tons, four times the logic. it will sell some of the Holiday Inn hotels in transaction. ing to give them a dressing down and; Mr. were killed in a race riot. "amount bought before the import morato- The Ministry of Machine Bullding. for North America that it agreed to buy last But despite the enthusiasm of men like Kosarev presumes, to tell them they must Enter Perestroika frium. In 1990, Mr. Rastogi says, Moscow example, is a hush-hush place that turns summer. Mr. Shalduga, wholesale trade is off to a close. After lobbying by association mem- is likely to spend more than $200 million on out military hardware as well as machines Perestroika turned this one production The report, which appeared in London's faltering start. And now the very agency bers, several Soviet journalists came to the purchases abroad. that produce soap. It isn't even listed in So- bottleneck into a national nightmare. Try- Sunday Telegraph newspaper Sunday, said that created the commercial centers is try- rescue and wrote articles supporting their ing to encourage factory managers to Important Boom viet phone books, what few there are, be- Bass may sell some of the hotels to reduce ing to curb their activities. cause. The day before the meeting, a se- cause of the military connection, and It es- make decisions rather than just obey or- One problem dogging the change-over nior Gossnab representative sat down with # The orders have been coming in S0 fast debt after its agreement last August to buy ders, Mr. Gorbachev unwittingly triggered chews all contact with outsiders, including the world's largest hotel chain from Holi- to a horizontal economic structure was the association leaders for the first time to lis- that he has run out of containers on which other soap ministries. a surge in inflation. Using their new free- day Corp. Bass is funding the $2.23 billion unwillingness of Soviet managers them- ten to their arguments. The question of the to load them in India. When he tried to The advantage for the bureaucrats in doms, factories awarded their workers big acquisition with 11 billion ($1.58 billion of selves. It is much easier for them to rely centers' existence was then taken off the send some supplies loose on board ship. he all this is that when mishaps do occur, no- pay increases, often 30% or more. That in syndicated two-year loans. on state orders and handouts than to find agenda of the meeting with Mr. Mosto- says 10% was stolen by soap-starved body quite knows whom to blame. turn boosted demand for goods. setting off Concern about the company's debt level their own suppliers and customers. Minis- voi. dockers and others when they reached the Mamed Aliev is one small cog in this gi- tries have made ample use of such inertia concerns that eventually sparked panic has pushed its shares down sharply on Lon- Soviet Union. Despite the cease-fire. Mr. Kosarev buying. gantic. creaking machine. An Azerbaijani don's Stock Exchange. Bass's per-share to keep the old system-and their powers- Perhaps Inevitably. Soviet soap facto- says "trench warfare" between the associ- "We completely underestimated the in. with a shock of white hair and rumpled tes have been the last in price has fallen nearly 16% to 967 pence tries have made ample use of such inertia ( mon Despite the cease-fire, Mr. Kosarev buying. to keep the old system-and their powers- says "trench warfare" between the associ- Perhaps inevitably, Soviet soap facto- gantie, creaking machine An Azerbaljani "We completely underestimated the in- ries have been the last to react. Until re- with a shock of white hair and rumpled don's Stock Exchange. Bass's per-share ation and Gossnab is far from over. crease In personal Incomes: That was our collar. he is responsible for production of price has fallen nearly 167 to 967 pence as intact as possible. As a result, after al- cently, no fewer than six separate depart- liquid paraffin at the Ministry of Chemical late Friday from last Aug. 23, before main mistake. says Alexander Voronov, ments were Involved In making soap prod- the agreement with Holiday was an- U.S. Is Leaning Toward West Germany deputy director of the All-Union Institute Industry. Among other things, paraffin is nounced. for Market Research. "As the market de- 2.6 As Its Closest Trans-Atlantic Partner velops, it's natural that we make quite a few mistakes, he adds humbly. Although prices of most Soviet goods re- WASHINGTON U.S. Mr. Genscher himself arrives tomor- main centrally fixed, perestrolka, In the row on a similar mission. And second-level name of efficiency. enabled factories to INSIGHT Bush administration officials have been switch production from cheap, unprofitable busily building ties to their own counter- Items to more expensive ones. By WALTER S. MOSSBERG "The cabbie grumbled when I parts in Bonn. comparing world views. The Svoboda plant, for example, Staff Reporter of THE Germany's rising prominence in Wash- stopped making its "Wood Nymph and asked her to pull over. But needed WASHINGTON-The Bush administra- Ington has been noted In London, where 'March 8" soap brands that sold for 70 ko- to check this stock before my flight. tion is considering making West Germany, any perceived slackening of the prized peks a bar. and began producing the pric- It was time to sell. T'll give you not Britain, Washington's closest partner "special relationship' with the U.S. sets ier "Balsam" and "Start," which retail for in trans-Atlantic affairs. off alarm bells. British officials privately 100 kopeks, or one ruble. Svoboda man- two minutes,' says the cabbie. I only This "tilt" toward Germany isn't yet settled policy: it may never be announced complained that the May NATO meeting at agers insist that they continued to turn out needed one." which the short-range missile fight was the same volume. But others didn't. Since even If officials agree on it. And strong ties settled was too much of a U.S.-German af- their economic plans are largely calcu- Photo Copy Preservation with Britain would continue. But the new fair in which Washington conceded too lated in rubles, not bars or tons of soap, approach to Germany is seen by some key much to Bonn. the higher prices meant they could pro- administration advisers as the best way No Break With Thatcher duce less soap and still fulfill their produc- for the U.S. to continue exerting influence tion quotas. over a rapidly changing geopolitical and Naturally. Mr. Bush isn't about to break "What does the consumer stand to gain economic situation in Europe. And it is with British Prime Minister Margaret from this?" the newspaper Pravda thun- viewed as necessary to keep a future reu- Thatcher. He even has invited her to Camp dered recently. "Absolutely nothing." nified Germany squarely in the Western David Friday for a meeting to help him camp, rather than neutralized or leaning plan for his Dec. 2-3 summit with Soviet The First Shortage Eastward. President Mikhail Gorbachev. After dec- Vyacheslav Nefedov, a department Even without being formally adopted. ades of extraordinary closeness, the U.S. head at the Market Research Institute, the tilt toward Germany has been in the isn't eager to jettison its partnership with says the first shortage to hit the stores was wind since last spring. when the adminis- London. washing powder-probably due to the sul- tration settled a bitter fight with Bonn over But Mr. Baker and most of his key phanol shortage-about 18 months ago. the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's aldes became used to viewing Germany When that began disappearing from stores, policy on short-range nuclear missiles. Of- (and Japan) as more important than Brit- people started buying up cheap soap to ficials say that fight and its. resolution led ain when they conducted economic and wash their clothes. But, of course, many both President Bush and Secretary of State monetary diplomacy at the Treasury. And factories were making less and less cheap James Baker to forge a closer bond with U.S. officials privately believe Mrs. soap, and this fact wasn't lost on con- their West German counterparts. Thatcher is out of step on some key issues sumers. In particular, the cautious and conser- that could be crucial in establishing a new The problem was compounded by fast- vative Mr. Baker has developed a personal stability in Europe as Eastern Europe spreading rumors of new shortages of all rapport and respect for the bold and leftish gains a measure of independence from kinds of goods, and by a growing public West German Foreign Minister, Hans-Die- Moscow. lack of confidence in the future. A recent trich Genscher. Their friendship was born For instance. the U.S. is considering opinion poll commissioned by government during an all-night, hardball negotiating throwing its weight behind giving the Eu- economists found that 93.5% of Soviets be- session last May over the missile dispute- ropean Community, which currently deals lieve the economy is in a "critical" or "un- the kind of tussle Mr. Baker savors, and primarily with economic issues, a greater favorable" condition. Worried that exist- through which he has built similar ties to role in political and foreign policy. Admin- ing supplies would disappear and not be re- domestic political foes. Istration officials also are looking for ways plenished, and with more disposable in- Role Ceded to Bonn to increase the direct American role in the come thanks to the raises their factory Over the ensuing months, the U.S. activities of the Brussels-based EC. They managers gave them, Soviet citizens began snapping up every imaginable kind of con- Relax. Schwab confirms my openly ceded to Bonn the lead role in pre- hope that the EC can provide a stable framework for integrating Eastern Europe sumer good: soap, sugar, salt-even paring the West's aid package for Poland into the Western orbit and toning down an- matches. and Hungary, saying it was appropriate (for Europe's richest country to take charge cient European ethnic and national con- One Moscow department store director flicts, which are now awakening as Mos- reports seeing old women staggering out of of helping Its poor neighbors, especially cow removes Its iron hand. the shop with 70 bars and more. In the Arc- trades in seconds." hit my price right then, given U.S. budget woes. And the presi- Mrs. Thatcher opposes any accretion of tic town of Murmansk, supplies sold out in right there. dent's much-criticized faint response to the two days. At the Svoboda factory's shop, breaching of the Berlin Wall was partly power in Brussels as an assault on Brit- lot of brokers take your "Schwab brokers have When I make the decision, ain's sovereignty and a backdoor victory assistants told Mrs. Boyarskaya that they based on a desire to do what Bonn had cupboards full of the stuff at home. market order and promise a direct connection to the Schwab is my call. wanted-namely. keep quiet, lest Moscow for Europe's socialists. But West Germany generally has backed the Idea of European "My old uncle rushed out and bought 10 to call back later with a exchanges So my order be tempted to crack down. "Once I've made up my countries ceding some political. as well as bars of soap when he heard the rumors, confirmation: You can "The relationship to Germany is a key doesn't sit around. even though he may not live long enough mind to buy or sell, I expect fast, for us," says one U.S. official. "What we economic, sovereignty to the EC. In fact, go for hours without German officials have argued for a strong to use them," Mrs. Boyarskaya says. Within seconds, my accurate, efficient service from need to focus on isn't some deal on Europe EC as a way of assuring other countries When she asked him why, he replied: "It's knowing what price trade is out there- my broker. That's why I call with Gorbachev, but how we can work with better to have it now, while it's avail- you got. that a reunified Germany won't be too getting executed Schwab the Germans to keep them anchored in the even when the able." powerful. don't like West." Instant meter isn't running" The president and Mr. Baker frequently So a new U.S.-German "special rela- Soviet planners hate panic even more that kind of uncer- 45 confirmations. are in phone contact with West German tionship" may be forming. How it develops tainty: And that's For free account information 40 Chancellor Helmut -Kohl and Mr. could be crucial in the evolution of the new America's Largest Fine Watch and Jewelry Discounters why call Schwab. "Often, stay on without sales pressure, visit Genscher. The Americans were moved re- European power structure and of U.S. ef- (cently when the German leaders person- forts to retain its influence there. Iknow 'm talking 30 the phone with the Schwab today or call: Schwab broker and ally thanked them for America' steadfast to brokers who will PEARLS 1-800-222-5321 protection of West Berlin over the past 40 take action-and give get a confirmation Canadian Steel Production SALES. SERVICE years. Even Mr. Genscher's personal sec- ACCESSORIES me answers-in a hurry. of my trade retary emotionally thanked Mr. Baker for OTTAWA Canadian steel production within 20 sec- America's help. totaled 299,982 metric tons in the week SUITE 204 Computer links to all the onds know During the East German turmoil. Mr. ended Nov. 11. a 2.1% increase from 293,- Washington, 20006 major exchanges. CharlesSchwab Kohl's national security adviser, Horst 902 tons in the previous week and an 8.4% 202/331-0671 Teltschik. his defense minister. Gerhard decline from 327.557 tons a year earlier, Member PC/New York Stock Exchange, Inc. ©Charles Screwab Co. Inc. We give you more ways to succeed. Statenberg. and his intelligence chief. Statistics Canada. a federal agency. said. !MARCUS&CO time. society. ways. was FRIDAY, DECEMBER 8, 1989 A 19 Right now, we need a year. Within a out of the Soviet reach. It might take a governments. Imperial restoration would then require a World War II-style reoccu- Why is Eastern Europe so central? Not pation against the resistance of perhaps ary working-class movement of their life and the practice of the revolution- the year, Eastem Europe could be entirely Charles Krauthammer year for Czechoslovakia, East Germany and Hungary to elect on-Communist Our Man CA22 FRIDAY. APRIL 6, 1990 cialist idea, relying on actual social new society. They developed the so- mechanisms for the development of a gaged in inventing specific forms and The founders of Marxism never en- responsible for the crisis state of our it has not justified itself because it is ism that expressed and substantiated future, and that the theory of Marx- struction and therefore is devoid of a idea is an artificial, abstract con- creasingly often that the socialist Opinions are now being voiced in- Stalinism with which we have parted characteristic squeeze actual life into schemes. This schemes on society again, or tried to if we began to impose ready-made would have made a theoretical error the question is put. believe that we One can hardly agree with the way realize the concept of perestroika we have no clear-cut, detailed plan to Some people try to reproach us that number of recent speeches. rdeas set forth by Mr. Gorbachev in a having synthesized and developed stroika, was described by Pravda as cialist Idea and Revolutionary Pere- Pravda. The article, titled "The So- Communist Party newspaper Tass, from yesterday's edition of the lated by the official press agency chev of the Soviet Union, as trans- ticle by President Mikhail S. Gorba- Following are excerpts from an ar. only because without If the Soviet empire four legitimate democracies with wide Gorbachev Moscow Clown feature becomes a shell. But because de-commu- popular words, imperial pization there is the surest road to the restoration will be inconceivable. de-communization of Russia. Until a few Our immediate agenda, therefore, is to Defects in U.S., of MOROW was push- help Gorbachev buy time. Help him resist Uncharacteristically, the hard- and ing reform in Eastern Europe. The pro- the internal discontent that comes from liners have got it wrong. They are cess is now reversed. Soviet reformers, the empty shelves and rising inflation. If upset that President Bush gave away Seeks Asylum seeing East Europe's aberation, are in- the store at Malta, dubbed "the Door- that requires Western credits, or emer- spired to demand the same at home. gency food aid or some GATT politi- mat Summit" by one critic. Los Angeles Times In Poland, Hungary. East Germany cal concession to placate the Politburo, What happened? At the summit Bush SAN FRANCISCO, April 5-A and Czechoslovalea, the Communist went from interested spectator to Gor- the price is cheap. Moscow Circus clown left his Soviet Party has been stripped of its leading Now is not the time to push Gorbachev bachev partner. He preemptively recalled all instruments of economic war (such as troupe earlier this week in Nevada role. Gorbachev still hangs on to it. Last on Baltic independence, on the formal punitive tariffs) against the Soviet Union. and is seeking asylum in the United Immensely if not decisively. month, however, a motion in the Su- dismantling of the Warsaw Pact, on the States, as well a job with a circus preme Soviet to reconsider the party's German question, on economic reform or here, an attorney who represents leading role lost by only three votes (in a even on Central American mischief him said today. Party, which is called upon to be the ganism belongs to the Communist A special role in the new social or- The Political Vanguard' time oriented toward the future. Notions of a new aspect of social- motivation. He approved its partial entry into the West's economic system (observer status ism depend on the party's activities of society and a new aspect of social- tainment of a qualitatively new state The destiny of perestroika and the at- political vanguard of Soviet society. present-day reality but at the same and programs adequate to the basis, it is possible to work out goals Interests of people nowadays. On this hending the busic requirements and identifying and theoretically compre- ism form naturally in the process of ments different in their composition the world and some social move- rents socialist thought in the rest of opment, there are also various cur- of sociocconomic and political devel- clalist countries with different stages world process in which, along with so- in the recent past. We view it as a more realistic view of socialism than We now take a wider, deeper and due to the substance of the matter. the theory and those events, but also period separates the emergence of not only because a century-long tions of some political figures and stagnation, and for the erroneous ac- years, of the personality cuit and deformations of socialism over the cannot bear responsibility for the Marxism and the theory they created It is clear that the founders of chamber of 542). Moreover, last week in the Western trading club of GATT). in Pravda, Gorbachev himself defended He gave Gorbachev and perestroika a The clown, Sergei Uhanov, "is political blessing to match the pope's. alive and well and happy, and he is the leading role of the party as neces- sary "at the present complex stage," a Within a year, He gave these concessions for free- in the process of applying for polit- remarkably telling qualification. Given before having received anything in re- ical asylum," his lawyer, Michael Gorbachev's history. in which today's Eastern Europe turn. No commitment to real economic Ross, said. ests. tive the qualification becomes tomorrow's new. reform. No pledges of good behavior in Ross would not reveal his client's to principle, it is concervable that some could be entirely. Central America. "Will someone tell me," whereabouts, but a San Francisco sort of political piurabsm is next. asked a pained Richard Viguerie, how it restaurateur said the lawyer and is in the interests of the Free World to tion, the Ukrainian Helsinki Group, member of a human rights organiza- Anatoly Dotsenko, a Moscow-based the head of Roman Catholicism. counter between a Kremlin leader and John Paul II at the Vatican, the first en- dent, Mikhail S. Corbachev, and Pope ing on Friday between the Soviet Presi- sure on Suviet officials before a meet- The protest was timed to put pres- paigners for religious rights reported. banned since the rule of Stalin, cam- of the Ukrainian Catholle Church, public today to demand the legalization in three cities in the vast southern re- thousands of Ukrainians demonstrated MOSCOW, Nov. 26 (AP) Tens of Demonstrators Support Ukrainian Church or to the spontanelty of group Inter- nationalist or chauvinistic currents either the party may not concede the initia- ple. In the efforts to renew socialism, interests of democracy and the peo- and the broadening of glasnost In the emulation mote the development of pluralism, And in this case, the party will pro- one-party system. prompt the advisability of keeping of the difficult tasks of perestrolka sound forces on the accomplishment ety and the concentration of all its Interests of the consolidation of socl- At the present complex stage, the Excerpts From Pravda Article by Gorbachev Give the mar. time. Gorbachev rep- of the Soviet reach." the clown dined in his establishment resents the greatest imperial self-trans- save this failed, fatally flawed system?" two nights this week. formation since Constantine converted to The answer is simple: it is in the Moscow Circus, which had been populist of making. Our supreme interest is an inde- Uhanov was a member of the Christianity. These types do not come highest interest of the Free World to along too often. (Constantine saw the pendent East Europe-and that means the continued survival of Gorbachev and save, to whatever extent we can, Gorba- performing at Bally's Casino Resort opinions light in 312 AD.) To the extent that we chev, because Gorbachev-not the with- his reforms. Everything else is secondary in Reno..Uhanov was last seen after can help Gorbachev, it is crazy not to. and, if it poses any threat to perestroika, holding of GATT membership or squeez- Sunday night's performance, the in ing the Soviets on Central America-is Photo Copy Preservation counterproductive. the key to burying this failed, fatally circus's final one on the U.S. tour. Vice President Dan Quayle complains When Uhanov failed to make the demagoguery, flawed system. society that Gorbachev's top national security The hard-liners are missing the big bus that took the performers to the advisers are still hard-line. He misses the picture. Their hearts are in the right Reno airport Monday, other per- point. We are far beyond caring about place-ice-but they have got the tactics formers packed his belongings and intentions. Events have outrun intentions. wrong. The terminal phase of the Cold took them to the airport, assuming No doubt, Gorbachev intends to make War, as any war, should be focused on the he would arrive later for their flight the Soviet Union a stronger, more effi- center, not the periphery. The periphery to New York, according to circus cient, more formidable power-some- was the major battleground when the promoter Bill Franzblau. After thing that is not particularly in our inter- million Catholics are in the Ukraine. analysts estimate that more than four cial recognition from Moscow. Western Ukrainians) openly demanded offi- underground and in the last two years, 1946. The church continued to operate with the Russian Orthodox Church in Stulin merged the Ukrainian church central topic in the Vatican talks. church. The issue is expected to be a fasting today for legalization of the chivsky, urged a day of prayer and fan church, Myroslav Cardinal Luba- The Rome-based head the Ukrain- attended of thousands. Frankovsk reported demonstrations cities Lvov, Chernovisy and ivano- said that people in three Ukrainian thesis and development" of several re- newspaper was presented as "a syn- Mr. Gorbachev's article in the party One Doubt Concerning Lenin cigarettes and other consumer goods. freeze on the prices of soap, nylons, Soviet legislature last week approved a Responding to this new lobby, the with moves toward market economy economic insecurity certain to come are demanding protection against the by party and trade union functionaries, "worker fronts. These groups, backed nessed the growing influence of new lars, Mr. Gorbachev has recently wit- In addition to the restive party regu- 'let us shoot,' Mr. Yakoviev said. times wonder if they' re really saying, 'When they say, "let us steer, some- conservatives.' center was untouchable. No longer. Uhanov missed the flight, Franzblau est. But his actions have set in train It is true that the Soviets are still filed a missing person's report. forces that defy his control and under- mine his intentions. Gorbachev could acting duplicitously in Central America "The only picture we had [to give hardly have intended to give up half of and still trying to hang on to Afghanistan. police] was of a man with size 22 Europe in six months. But it will soon be But these are peripheral issues. From the shoes and a big plastic nose," said point of view of strategy, we don't partic- Franzblau. try must guard against "these danger- gone. ularly care right now if the Soviets insist on spending themselves dry in Havana and Kabul. We don't particularly care if Gorbachev refuses to release prices and make the other changes essential to re- viving his economy. (In the end, what hard-liner really wants a revived Soviet economy? So why insist on real reform?) What we care is that Eastern Europe DO NOT FORGET THE NEEDIEST! law on the press. the freedoms outlined in a new draft newspaper, and for intervening limit editor of the country's most popular under open attack for trying to fire the Mr. Medvedev has recently been A. Medvedev. irrevocably eludes the Soviet grasp. The Soviet empire is in collapse at the cen- ter, where it counts. Every day Gorba- chev remains in power is another day of further collapse. Our supreme interest, therefore, is to help Gorbachev remain in power. He has done more for rollback longs to the more conservative Vadim sively with ideology, portfollo that be- But his comments tonight dealt exclu- nominally in charge of foreign affairs. bachev's main intellectual ally, is Mr. Yakovlev, regarded as Mr. Gor- in the Politburo. was tantalizing hint of further shifts interview with Mr. Yakovlev tonight For Kremiinologists, the television the 21st century.' that will stretch beyond the decade into remaking of socialism "is a process Mr. Gorbachev today conceded that the public expectations of quick results, Often criticized for falsely raising public pressure. in Czechoslovakia was wobbling under ception, and as the Communist Party Moscow after a remarkably warm re- ernment in the Soviet bloc, was leaving the first non-Communist to lead a gov. Prime Minister, Tadeusz Mazowiecki, The article appeared as the Polish Timing Amid Turmoll ing next weekend with President Bush. can and prepares for his Malta meet- heads off on visits to Italy and the Vati- than John Foster Dulles could have dreamed. 1. " y 51 le av ou the 101 re: 10S ye:- tiny the rap mu our and to 1 sur 2.0 DEC GORD Mtg SOVECON A16 THE WALL STREET JOURNAL WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 1, 1989 POLITICS & POLICY Bush and Gorbachev Plan to Meet Dec. 2-3 he said. "Those things will all come up. cials had been insisting for weeks that Mr. the leaders of Poland and Hungary. who but in a fairly informal way." Bush wasn't interested in such an informal urged him to support Mr. Gorbachev's ef- Instead, this official said, "This is vin- get-together. forts to transform the Soviet system and to Aboard U.S., Soviet Shipsi in Mediterranean tage George Bush. This was George Bush's Though President Bush's political urge him to loosen his grip on Eastern Eu- own idea. It's George Bush wanting to critics at home have been urging him to rope. a senior aide said. While flying home meet a foreign leader and talk to him di- open a more direct dialogue with Mr. Gor- from those discussions. Mr. Bush drafted a sion and the calculated effort to hold down gional disputes, relations with allies, eco- rectly." bachev, it actually was the arguments of letter to Mr. Gorbachev suggesting an in- Aside from the Soviet economic plight leaders within the Soviet bloc itself that led formal get-together to precede their formal White House Avoids Calling expectations, the meeting could pay signif- nomic cooperation. arms control, and joint icant political dividends for both leaders. and talks on cutting strategic and chemical the president to seek the December meet- summit next year. efforts to fight narcotics, terrorism and Talks 'Summit' to Damp Mr. Gorbachev badly needs a diversion arms, one other issue the Soviets are likely ing. Mr. Bush decided he wanted the meet- -Peter Gumbel in Moscou contributed pollution. from the serious economic problems and to want to raise is naval force reductions. ing after talking in Europe in July with to this article. Expectations for Accords ethnic unrest he faces at home. American The president specifically mentioned Western analysts say that. given the meet- officials have sald that a meeting with the U.S. economic advice to Moscow as a pos- ing's setting at sea. Gorbachev is unlikely leader of the U.S. could help bolster his sible topic. Mr. Gorbachev has for months to pass up the opportunity to press once stature among Soviet politicians and aca- been publicly urging the U.S. to drop its re- 1,234,000 By GERALD F. SEIB again for negotiated cuts in the navies of And WALTER S. MOSSBERG demics, whose support he needs. strictions on Soviet trade. He recently told both the North Atlantic Treaty Organiza- Staff Reporters of THE WALLSTREET JOURNAL For his part, Mr. Bush has been criti- a small group of American businessmen in tion and the Warsaw Pact. WASHINGTON President Bush and cized regularly at home for moving too Moscow that he hoped to sign a general Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev will hold slowly and cautiously in reacting to Mr. That theme has been a recurring one trade agreement with the U.S., possibly at an informal meeting in early December. a Gorbachev's reforms and the historic for Soviet military officials for much of the 1990 summit. The Soviets hope a trade move that should give both leaders a politi- moves away from communism in Eastern this year. They argue that as the Kremlin 1,031,000 Europe. A face-to face meeting with Mr. agreement would give them Most-Favored cal boost at home. Nation status, which would lower the tar- follows through on announced plans to cut 63% The White House is purposely not call- Gorbachev should damp such criticism, land forces-the Soviets' area of greatest though it will hardly eliminate it. Iffs on Soviet exports to the U.S. ing the meeting a summit so that there Senate Majority Leader George Mitch- In an unusually candid article about the strength-the U.S. should show more will- won't be any expec- Ingness to cut sea forces-Washington's ell (D., Maine), who has been the most latest economic woe-unemployment- tation of detailed ne- prominent Democratic critic of Mr. Bush's area of greatest superiority. gotiations or agree- Pravda yesterday ments. Rather. se- handling of the Soviet relationship. praised One of the reasons Bush administration the president for arranging the meeting. million Soviets have aides are anxious to insist that the coming nior administration meeting will be informal is to avoid com- Shipments Growth But he added: "The mere fact of a meet- officials said that lost their jobs as a ing doesn't deal with the substance of pol- result of perestrolka parisons with the last such loosely struc- Photo Copy Preservation the unexpected Since we began in 1985 icy. and the number meeting was sched- tured superpower gathering, former Presi- Mr. Bush said that the December meet- mil uled at Mr. Bush's dent Reagan's 1986 meeting with Mr. Gor- 648,000* request because of ing. which was announced simultaneously lion. by the year bachev in Reykjavik, Iceland. That meet- in Moscow, will be held in the unusual set- 2005. Economists in his preference for ing sent shivers through the Western alli- conducting diplo- ting of ships at sea to hold down the "fan- Moscow are now fare" and force the two sides to limit par- ance because Mr. Reagan was pulled into macy through highly proposing that the ticipation to just small groups of advisers. state start a sys- discussing the possible elimination of nu- personal and infor- "By doing it in this manner we can have, I mal meetings with tem of unemploy- clear weapons without consulting Ameri- George Bush would say, more time without the press ment benefits. can allies. other leaders. of social activities or mandatory joint ap- But one Bush ad- Mikhail Gorbachev Mr. Bush said that he initiated talks 421,000 The two leaders will meet on Dec. 2 and pearances, things of that nature for public ministration official with the Soviets on the informal meeting BIRMINGHAM 3, alternating the two days of meetings be- consumption," Mr. Bush said. knowledgeable about the summit plan cau- by sending a proposal to Mr. Gorbachev tween a U.S. and a Soviet naval vessel in CORPORATI Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard She- the Mediterranean Sea. The unusual sea- tioned against assuming that there will be last July. which the Soviet leader readily vardnadze, at a news conference in Mos- For all the figures borne meeting won't disrupt plans for a bold new initiatives on the Soviet economy accepted. But word of the possible session 219,000* cow. said, "As the two sides plan to hold a Phillip E. Casey at 1-8 formal summit meeting next spring or or other Issues. @ was closely held by the president and a (101/2 mos.) full-scale summit in late spring-early sum- summer. at which an arms-control treaty "Don't take this as some big opening handful of top aides, and word of it didn't is likely to be completed. mer next year, they found it useful, I for major movement on economic coopera- reach many second-level officials until the in Tons 1985 1986 1987 19 would say even necessary, to hold an In- In announcing the meeting yesterday, tion, or arms control, or the environment." past few days. Indeed, many senior offi- Mr. Bush told reporters at the White House terim informal meeting. Although no spe- that neither he nor Mr. Gorbachev expects cific agreements are expected, Mr. She- any "substantial decisions or agree- vardnadze said "that doesn't mean they ments." Instead, he said that the purpose will be without an agenda." is simply for the two to get "better ac- If the two leaders cover the subjects quainted" and discuss a wide range of is- that have been featured in lower level sues without a formal agenda. U.S.-Soviet meetings. their talks would in- Despite the informal nature of the ses- those the West. SOVIET clude human rights, Soviet reforms, re- the three months to Business and Labor Reach a Consensus cutting TNT's profits 70% the: cost of the dispute had try's two major domestic TNT, which owns half of one On Needto Overhaul tee. a return flight?" Transport By KENNETH H. BACON to sell a holiday when he cannot guara iff Reporter of THE STREET JOURNAL Rising Business He:added: "How Is a travel agent going Australian Tourist Industry Association. sald Frank Moore, chairman of the people who are flying are those who have continent's tourist industry. "The only airtine earnings and crippled much of the tralla's 1,640 domestic pllots has slashed An 11-weck dispute Involving Aus- AUSTRALIAN STRIKE DRAGS ON Soviets, or work says the number of jobless is 23 million of the Unemployed" has cropped up that unemployment but said an "Association Insurance and retraining programs like VASHINGTON-After 20 years of push- Pravda gave no estimate for overall the,Soviet Union to create unemployment The newspaper said It is past time the past months. all but Kirgizia have reported rioting In southern border of the Soviet Unton, and are; non-Russian republics along the Communist Party newspaper sald. All In Armenia and 16.3% in Kirgizia, the In Uzbekistan, 18.8% In Turkmenia, 18% Azerbaljan; 25.7% In Tadzhikistan, 22.8% Health-Care Costs Unemployment has reached 7.6% in factory payrolls. said the situation is caused by efforts to g.to.27% In some areas, Pravda sald. It The Sovlet Union's jobless rate is soar- RRIO abor proposals to overhaul the nation's h-care system, Bert Seidman of the AVERAGE PERCENTAGE "IO is finding interest from an un- COST PER CONSUMER YEAR EMPLOYEE INCREASE PRICE RISE 10 big business. Hers, frustrated by double- 1985 $1.724 4.8% 3.6% basl '3" mets. are be- 1986 1.8" Most super. invest author The tentia. non day's progr. swap unou part tion a VEN with Kor rect Po Wa THE WASHINGTON POST A15 Jeane Kirkpatrick Fred C. Ikle New World, Moscow's Costly Empire The Soviet Union is not having a good year. The living standard of the population is The March economic report acknowledged that declining. Unemployment has increased. total production for the month was to Soviet economists also note that their trade is Old Strategy percent less than the year before. Production of disadvantageous not only with Socialist countries food, coal and electric power had declined. So had in the Third World, but also with Poland, Czecho- output of textiles, footwear and oil-drilling equip- slovakia and the German,Democratic Republic, As history speeds ahead, nuclear strategy ment., Meanwhile, the country was confronted all of which profit from Soviet products delivered can't keep with an unprecedented 600,000 refugees who at discount prices. Under current practices the Ten years hence, Moscow may no longer desperately need basic necessities. Soviet Union subsidizes the reorientation of the control all of its present empire-regardless of The pinch is causing Soviet-economists to look 16 economies of Eastern Europe at a time it can ill what it now does to Lithuania. Yet, our long-term for ways to economize. One obvious choice is afford to do nuclear plans depend on Moscow's commanding trade relations with the Socialist bloc The answer to Soviet economic problems may all nuclear arms in today's Soviet Union. Western economists have long understood that lie in reordering its political relations well as, Fifteen years hence, our president, may be empires are a political luxury that almost no one adopting a market approach to trade with other confronted by more nuclear weapons in China, countries. Iraq, and other countries than President Eisen- can afford. But Lenin and his disciples always The solution, according to the authors cited hower ever confronted under Soviet control. Yet, believed that empires enrich the imperial power above, is "to separate aid from commerce and our arms control policy now (seeks long-term trade from politics" and get fair prices for Soviet stability. through U.S. Soviet nuclear parity, a products. The fault is not with the debtors in the "stability" that can be unhinged if other signifi- Russians have begun to Soviet countries but with the bureaucracy that cant nuclear powers shift alliances. "sacrifices the Interests of the country at home 0 In the future as in the past; what can go wrong notice that as the Soviet and abroad for the sake of high-sounding slogans." will go wrong some day. Occasionally Cherno- Once the question "who profits?" le raised, It byls will happen, and an irrational despot will gain Union is not getting a fair catches on. power somewhere. Yet our present nuclear strate- Russians have begun to notice that as the gy would be impotent against accidental or irratio- shake in the world Soviet Union is not getting a fair shake in the nal use of nuclear arms by anyone, anywhere. world Socialist system, Russia is not getting For years to:come; our nuclear strategy and fair shake in the Soviet Union: Russia contributes armaments will remain warped by NATO's doc- Socialist system, Russia IS a disproportionate share of fuel;energy, miner- trine for initiating nuclear attacks against East als, timberland and water resources to the Soviet Germany, and Eastern Europeito halt a Warsaw not getting fair shake in Union, according to a recent report Sovetska Pact onslaught. Yet, a divided Germany, a hostile ya Rossiya. "Russia accounts for nearly two- East Europe and a militarily effective Warsaw the Soviet Union. thirds of the U.S.S.R. 8 national product, But Pact are all ghosts of the past.: the Soviet economy is not geared to the needs of Risk however, is not diminished by: strategy that compels America and Russia to plan against by Impoverishing its colonies. Now at long last, Russia's population. Russia ranks last among Soviet economists have begun to examine and the union republics in terms of the proportion of each other, decade after decade, as their most lethal enemy. discuss the high cost: to the Soviet Union of expenditures on social needs, and eighth in terms assisting Socialist countries on three continents. of housing provisions.' For the near term, to be sure, we need to hold An article in the March issue of a leading "Economic independence" is; the preferred on to our massive deterrent as insurance, and develop strategic defense while guarding our economic journal, Ekonomika I Zhizn, raises answer. to the Soviet Union's trade imbalances best technology as leverage. For the long term, doubts about whether the "world Socialist eco- with its Socialist dependencies and to Russia's nomic system" is worth the price. problems inside the Soviet Union: however, the unexpected global transformation The whole question of Soviet aid to its associ- Why not? As the autonomous republics develop should embolden us to reach for an exit from this ated states is obscured by secrecy and complexi- national identifications and demands, why should nuclear Cold War. To begin with, it's time to recognize that ty, the authors warn. Part of the "aid" consists of anyone expect that the Russians will not do so? NATO's hoary doctrine-to deter conventional the Soviet habit of paying inflated prices for The Baltics are not the only republics who were independent nations. So was Russia. And a war by. threatening nuclear holocaust-has lost goods readily available elsewhere: seven to nine democratic national Russian movement has its military rationale and political support. This, times more for Cuban sugar," greatly swollen emerged in time to win elections In Moscow and in turn, will clear the way for drastic curbs on: prices for Vietnamese cement. A second type of Leningrad ballistic missiles and other hair-trigger catapults "aid" involves selling goods far below the market This is very good news. designed for doomsday. price, as Soviets sell oil to Cuba. A third form of In the Soviet Union nationalism and democracy 3 In addition, we can build new institutions to hidden "aid" consists of providing services at link Washington and Moscow in the prevention of can go hand in hand. Both have been suppressed virtually no cost, as when the Soviets commit in the multinational internal empire. But Alexan- nuclear war. For example, the remarkable U.S.- 300 of their ships to transporting Cuban prod- der Solzhenitsyn, Vladimir Bukovsky and genera- Soviet arrangements for. verification, already ucts, thus freeing Cuban ships for profitable tions of Russian dissidents have rightly pointed agreed to, might gradually be given ever broader engagements. A fourth form of "aid" is the out that Russian culture has been suppressed Bcope and purposes, to lead eventually to effec- provision of credit on fantastic terms, such as tive controls on nuclear arms. Where President along with that of the Ukraine and all other allowing Mongolia 200 years to reimburse funds nationalities. Truman was bound to fail with his Baruch Plan for a poultry farm. for controlling the atom bomb, President Bush Today virtually all the people of the U.S.S.R An article in' Argumenty I. Fakty (March might start us on the road toward a new, more support democratic self-determination for them- 17-23) asserts that nonequivalent conditions of selves and for Eastern Europe. realistic design for the 21st century, trade with Cuba currently cost the Soviet Union The age of empire has passed for the Soviet The writer was undersecretary of defense for some $6 to $10 billion annually. The authors see Union as for Western Europe. The sacrifice of policy in the Reagan administration. no sign of lessening Cuban dependence, "not one national interest to remote colonies no longer sector of the economy fulfilled the plan quotas in makes sense, 1989 (except for transport and sugar production) 1990, Los Angeles Times Syndicate forthbal Photo Copy Preservation THE WALL STREET JOURNAL MONDAY, MARCH 19, 1990 A19 So Where Does President Gorbachev Go From Here? Having completed his carefully-spun Communism is being widely celebrated. withdrawal of Soviet troops from Eastern ing up his mind. After Lithuania's non- Much of the world now sees it for what it Europe. Keep in mind as well that the So- Communist parliament voted to secede power web by winning the new Soviet pres- idency last week, Mikhail Gorbachev cele- always has been, a systematic tyranny viet Communist Party has not failed and just over a week ago, he first called the through which a governing elite destroys there is as yet no sign that it will. Last vote "illegal and invalid," even though the brated with an ultimatum to Lithuania: the personal identity of masses of people. week, Mr. Gorbachev obtained final repeal Soviet constitution has long maintained the Drop that secessionist nonsense or else. Or else what? We may soon learn. But we Exposure of the high living of party bosses of a constitutional provision that had fiction that members of the Soviet union de unit from Bucharest to Managua has exploded awarded the Communist Party the "lead- freely chose to join and are free to leave. iplies a know one thing already: this is not the the myth of Communist egalitarianism. ing role" in Soviet politics. That opens the Then he began to sound more conciliatory. acting kinder, gentler Soviet leader of popular Even while many Western liberals were way to the legalization of competing par- And then after winning election-although myth. clinging to such myths, Mr. Gorbachev ties. But the Communist bureaucracy still by a surprisingly small vote when you con-1 try to In fact, he never was. Mikhail Gorba- ess am- chev is mainly a skillful, tough politician saw the need for changes. The destruction controls property and wealth and will be sider that he was the only candidate-he of human initiative had sent the Soviet difficult to dislodge. got tough again. Clearly he wants to stop ning co- Global View economy into a tailspin that even cooked To be sure, the Soviet Union is becom- the unraveling of the Russian empire. statistics could not conceal. A huge govern- ing more democratic. Two thirds of the where he has the means to do SO. 'LORECK ment deficit, a rising inflation that mani- 2,250 seats in the congress were filled by What about Soviet power generally? As By George Melloan fests .itself in shortages and a declining popular vote and only one-third by the Harvard's Richard Pipes writes in a bril- GNP now are visible to everyone. By some party and its various organs. This month's liant article in the March issue of Com- onderful estimates, many Russian workers and pen- elections to republic legislatures and local mentary, there has been no diminution of Straight who was driven toward political liberal- sioners today have a lower level of nutri- and regional offices also were relatively Soviet military muscle. Its nuclear build- earch of ism by events he could not control. Even tion than their counterparts of 75 years up continues. It is building a major naval ion." As now, he may be no better able to manage t attest, the great forces that are fracturing the What the Lithuanian facility at Tartus, Syria, which will ago. Mr. Gorbachev attempted reform be- strengthen its power in the Mediterranean, ack of a Russian empire. But he could choose a cause he had no choice. He knew he had to ultimatum suggests is that It is expanding its Cam Ranh Bay base in Photo Copy Preservation words harder response. What the Lithuanian ulti- open up the system to vent some of the Vietnam. While the military's heavy "due") matum suggests is that we may be seeing steam that was building up under him. And we may be seeing the end weapons do not have application for con" tters of the end of Mikhail Gorbachev as Mr. Nice he knew he had to do something about the trolling internal dissent-and while troop ars ago, Guy economy, although his "restructuring" of Mikhail Gorbachev as disloyalty could be a factor in any such Keep in mind that the Soviet leader is was hardly the revolutionary change his Mr. Nice Guy. effort-they do have another use. They in God; no Vaclav Havel or Lech Walesa. They sales talks proclaimed. would make it very dangerous for any out overthrew Communist parties. He heads side power to intervene on behalf of a 0 LOGAN one. He is trying to reform socialism, not Letting Communist parties fail in East free. But elections have not banished the threatened population. kill it. Putting it mildly, he is not having Europe did not stem from some grand party. Although it has split into factions, it much luck and that is why he will be democratic vision. Again, he had no dominates the political system. Other well placed sources say that the when choice. With his economy sinking fast, he All of Mr. Gorbachev's changes have world-wide espionage and political activi- tempted to take desperate actions. he was As economic conditions worsen and badly needed Western trade and invest- had party approval. Obviously, the party ties of the KGB have if anything been ex- western credit becomes harder to obtain, ment. When it became apparent that the sees him and his reforms as vital to its panded. It has to make up for the loss of 'S, corn, le are Polish Communist Party had lost all sup- own survival, and it is most likely right. East European assets. Mr. Gorbachev he faces further secessionist attempts. Lat- via, Estonia, Georgia are lined up behind port, he was faced with letting it fail or Mr. Gorbachev already has used force badly needs the KGB in his corner if he is NDERSEN Lithuania. Even in Russia, shortages of using force. Given his larger agenda of on the party's behalf. When a popular front to control the party, so he continues-to food and other essentials are stirring civil courting the West, plus the truculence of ousted the party in Azerbaijan, he sent in fund it generously. disorder. So far, Mr. Gorbachev has made the Poles, military action was out of the the Red Army and restored it to power, at The crucial element for Mr. Gorbachev "I have question. So he gave tacit backing to Soli- least in a nominal sense. Because the Azer- remains the Soviet economy. If it continues little use of military force, but that doesn't means, mean he won't do SO if he feels more belea- darity and sought to maintain contact after baijanis don't have many friends outside to sink, even the use of force against popu- like a that movement's overthrow of Commu- the Muslim world, there were few objec- lar uprisings might prove to be of little gured. In last week's presidential debate, a nism. tions in the West. avail. Communism will have to go, and not Congressman warned of civil war. The out- After Poland, the Soviet leader was Lithuania would be another matter. The just in name. Whether it will go with a side world soon could be faced with some forced to watch the other East European Lithuanians do have friends. For that rea- whimper or a big and dangerous bang is a messy situations. Recent events have conditioned western dominoes falling. Keep in mind, however, son, Mr. Gorbachev may treat events there matter all of Russia's neighbors should thinking in an opposite way. The decline of that there has as yet been no wholesale differently. So far he has had trouble mak- worry about. SDAY. MARCH 28, 1990 INTERNATIONAL Secessionist Fever Spreads in Soviet Union WORLD Air's Stake in Unit WIRE ena Is Investigated STREET JOURNAL Reporter Georgia Monarchists Join Bandwagon in Defiance of Gorbachev ON-The British government SOVIET OIL a monopoly inquiry into the Mites Activists claim that they control the re- rways purchase of 20% stake By PETER GUMBEL Moscow doesn't Intend to ask Its for- World Airlines, a new unit of (Reporter JOURNAL SWEDEN FINLAND 200 public's police force, but that can' be veri- mer satellite countries In Eastern Europe TBILISI, U.S.S.R.-Al the Institute of fled. Still. demonstrations take place al- to begin paying for oll supplies with hard ag carrier Sabena S.A. rprise move casts cloud over Marxism-Leninism, two dozen people most every day in Tbillsi without anything currency, as rumored. In the near future. ESTONIA happening to the protesters. Last Satur- mg British Airways. Europe's crowd Into an office to hear Levan Kiladze a senior Sovlet official sald. rline. a wider presence on the give a distinctly unorthodox talk. day. thousands rallied in the town center to LATVIA Andrel Bugrov, deputy director of the "For 70 years we have suffered under ©Moscow support Lithuania. One huge placard sar- départment of International economic re- It may hasten the European the dictatorship of the proletariat. de- POLAND LITHUANIA castically showed Mr. Gorbachev dressed lations at the Soviet Foreign Ministry, :y Commission' own informal review of Sabena World Air clares Mr. Kiladze, a 20-year-old scientist, U. S. S. R. in toga crowning himself emperor. Police also indicated that his country isn't plan- ch is -owned by Sabena to nods from the audience. "Our new state were nowhere in sight. ning any major changes in the terms of should be built on a strict principle of hier- "We are definitely on the path to con- its longstanding oll-supply contracts with y KLM Roval Dutch Airlines. archy. A monarchy Is our ideal." UKRAINE frontation,' says Mr. Chanturia, who has Eastern Europe. tish and Belgian airlines have the link between the dominant This Is a regular meeting of the 7,000- been jalled twice In the past seven years. Mr. Bugrov noted that the Sovlet Un- ROMANIA strong Monarchy Party. which wants to re- "The only way out [for Mr. Gorbachev Is Ion's existing contracts with East Euro- of the three countries. Trade Secretary Nicholas store the kingdom abollshed in 1801. when GEORGIA repression. But this will be just the begin- pean states are long-term government-to- BULGARIA Georgia was annexed by ezarlst Russia. Black Sea Tbills ning. Our people are not afraid to fight." government accords and so can't easily dered the government's Mo- and Mergers Commission to Far from being a fringe group. It Is one of Elguje Tsiklauri Is already prepared for be renegotiated. He also noted that most and report by June 28 about the biggest of several political parties in battle. He Is a bearded 7-year-old sports East European states can't afford to pay Soviet Georgia committed pulling the re- TURKEY Instructor who resigned from the Commu- for their crude supplies In hard currency. h Airways's share purchase. "may give rise to possible ef- public out of the U.S.S.R. and restoring In- nist Party after last April's killings and set Pointing out that the Soviet Union impetition' In the market for dependence. dragged off 23 Red Army deserters who up a paramilitary organization known as buys manufactured goods from Eastern and from the United Kingdom, This month, the monarchists and the al- had sought crefuge there, beating some in the Legion. He sits on a park bench near European countries, the minister said the lied Georgian Independence Party took the center of town, dressed in camouflage most convenient way of paying for those y said in a statement over the Marxism-Leninism Institute and the process. King, British Airways chair fatigues, and talks about his troops. "We goods was through oil exports. But the use of force is a dangerous ressed disappointment at the stripped it of all traces of Marx or Lenin. gamble. Mr. Gorbachev's intimidation love our people, our religion, our culture," ecision. He added that British Just down the road, the National Demo- campaign in Lithuania is already sparking Mr. Tsiklauri says. "We are prepared to has "every confidence" that cratic Party and two other independence international concerns. It could also back- die for them." CREDIT FOR CHINA ission will rule in its favor. groups have moved into the republic's fire domestically. Activists in the various He says several thousand people The World Bank cleared a $50 million popolies Investigation won't Young Communist League headquarters. republics, while differing widely on how to throughout the republic belong to the Le- credit to China for education projects. KLM because that stake "Georgia is no longer controlled by the achieve Independence, are united in their glon, which he describes as "a volunteer The loan, which will be provided by the have a substantial effect on (local Communist government but by us, refusal to be cowed into submission. patriotic-military sports club." He dodges International Development Association. a market. a trade-department the democratic forces," boasts Georgy The example of Georgia shows how the question of whether they are armed. A World Bank affiliate, will be used primar- nan said. A Sabena spokes- Chanturia, the National Democrats' dozen teen-age recrults, all in uniform, leader. The republic's Communist chief, counterproductive the use of force can be. Ily to train teachers who will be assigned ned comment on the action. stand or squat around him, listening with to technical schools. After a hlatus in Givl Gumbaridze, seems to agree. Meeting Last April. Sovlet troops armed with shovels and tear gas broke up a peaceful rapt attention. Others wander around town lending that followed China's crackdown with leaders of the Georgian KGB security police last week, he talked darkly of "a o-Independence demonstration In Tbillsl. In their fatigues, manning information on pro-democracy demonstrations in Bei- or plant together vacuum of power" in the republic. the Georgian capital, killing 23 people. stalls or rulsing money. jing last June, the bank and IDA have suard said Framatome had al- They unwittingly gave a major boost to In- Such activities alarm some of the radi- approved three loans to China totaling to be intimidated by the West The battle raging over Lithuanian Inde- cals, who fear that Moscow will use the ex- about $140 million. Including the $50 mil- il. Although Framatome nu- pendence Is just the start of Mikhall Gor- dependence (activists, who have become Istence of a paramilitary force as a pretext- llon credit. plant sales are larger than bachev's problems with deflant secession- more openly radical. ramatome accepted a 50-50 "Il Was a big mistake by the Kremlin, to march In. But Georgian passions are un- 1st movements. Throughout the Baltic derstandable, given the region's long and ement. Mr. Suard said Fra- states, and In parts of the Ukraine and the because people saw with their own eyes proud history. Until It was annexed by TRAVELING IN CZECHOSLOVAKIA dd have made a better agree- Caucasus, anti-Soviet radicals are selzing that Ithe Soviets are an occupation force," Russla in 1801. It was centuries-old king- power and pushing for independence. Mr. says Mr. Chanturia of the National Demo- Czechoslovakla Is ralsing gasoline d been controlled by larger dom that extended throughout the Cau- ich as CGE. Framatome re- Gorbachev will soon have to fight on sev. cratic Party. The blood that flowed on prices for tourists to stop them crossing casus. Between 1918 and 1921 It was an GE officials say today that April 9 "has united people. It is like a the border to fill up their cars cheaply. eral fronts to prevent the breakup of the Independent state run by social democrats mystical force." the Communist Party daily Rude Pravo seek a renegotiation of the Soviet Union, a task that may prove Impos- who held out against the imposition of Bol- said. Czechosloval citizens would pay the sible without the use of force. Call for a Boycott shevik rule. But the Bolsheviks won out, 1 announcement follows Du- Last weekend Estonia's Communists same prices as before, but tourists would In the past few weeks, the Georgian In- and Georgia was Incorporated Into the So- be entitled only to limited amounts of gas in last year to sell its shares. voted to split with Moscow, and the repub- dependence movement has started to viet Union. in exchange for coupons available in lustry Ministry, siding with lic Is likely to follow Lithuania In declaring throw Its weight around. Last week, the re- How to Pull Out banks and hotels, Vice Prime Minister ad then proposed that the Du- Independence. Activists in Latvia are close public's government was forced to post- to winning the majority they need in Par- The best way to pull out of the U.S.S.R. Vladimir Dlouhy was quoted as saying. split between CGE and the pone local elections until the fall after ac- and that CGE be allowed to is now a point of contention among the 100 One liter (0.26 gallon) of 96-octane super- llament to pass their secessionist plans. In tivists called for a boycott. Georgian offi- matome. western Ukraine, the Independence opposi- or so political parties committed to Inde- grade gasoline costs about 56 cents; un- cials feared that less than 50% of the re- officials of the Socialist-led tion got boost in local elections and poses public's population would turn out, render- pendence that have sprung up in the re- der the new regulation. tourists would Ing the poll Invalid under Soviet law. public. Some believe that Georgia should pay as much as they do at home. with unhappy at Mr. Suard's close a major threat to local Communists. opposition Gaullist party, re- make use of Mr. Gorbachev's "democ- varying prices for different countries. A Desperate Scramble Statues of Vladimir Lenin, the founder Pa. Framatome and its em- racy" campaign to be elected to local gov- nted a campaign against It. Mr. Gorbachev is desperately scram- of the Soviet state, have been pulled down ernment. But militant groups, who seem to ought it had simply died. bling to curb the growing secessionist in dozens of Georgian towns and villages In have the upper hand, say they don't want AIRLINES PROTEST EC PROPOSAL d CGE both are non-govern- trend. Refusing to negotlate with the recent days. Now only two remain in Tbl- anything to do with Sovlet institutions. list. One Is In the town center, under con- Proposed European Community rules des, however, and they had a rebels, he Is trying to push a law through Some of them want to elect a new Geor- Parliament to prevent republics pulling stant guard. Activists have bullt a wire to protect air travelers from overbooking ement to offer one another glan Congress that would proclaim Inde- ights on the shares. In an un- of the union unilaterally. cage around the other, which is outside a on flights from EC airports were attacked pendence and organize strikes and civil by the Association of European Airlines. move for France. they have As of late yesterday he had stopped polytechnic institute, to symbolize the tam- disobedience to press its demands. Sefik Yuksel, general manager of com- to move ahead without gov- short of crushing the Baltic revolts with Ing of Soviet power. The Monarchy Party is the only group mercial affairs for the trade group, com- roval. tanks, but he was turning up the heat. The Georgian officials have either supported pressing for. restoration,of the Georgian that the proposals-which Include Kremlin ordered all. foreigners to leave such, activities, or turned a blind eye.to yesterday occu. them. "In many places; local authorities "replacing" a program of voluntary finan- 12th-century rule of King David the Re- cial compensation for overbooking with a .S. Pleas pled the headquarters of the breakaway wanted to take down [the Lenin statues) builder, the party wants a constitutional standardized, mandatory arrangement- Lithuanian Communist Party, the fifth themselves, but we told them: no, that's monarchy at the head of a democracy, and are "too rigid' and would Impose undue party building occupled by Soviet troops our job, says Zviad Gamsakhurdia, a not an absolute monarchy. It has been in financial penalties on airlines. He said Sinking In since the weekend. Soviet paratroopers longtime dissident who now heads the Hel- contact with the nominal heir to the the association plans to lobby for changes. earlier had Invaded two hospitals and sinki Union party. throne, a prince who lives in Spain. of the U.S. deficit with Japan. ins are coming to a head as Swedes Sing a Baltic Chantey: ULTIMATE EASTER EGG are supposed to produce an LUI Is Seeking The London jewelers Kutchinsky said rt by the middle of next are now preparing for a cru- Yo and a Bottle of Bargain Beer they had crafted a 2-foot-high Easter egg in Washington next week. To Aid Embattled made from 37 pounds of gold and studded with 20,000 pink diamonds; It will sell for alks began in September. the Continued From First Page chure, the port city of Mariehamn Is billed $11.3 million. "So far as we know. it is ratedly argued that Its posi- dersson says one person year on average as a "Finnish Miami Beach." In March, Insurance Units the biggest decorative egg of its kind in S streamlining Japan's com- goes overboard on the Baltic ferries. "We It looks more like Nome, Alaska. The tem- the world and contains the largest single inp system. toughening Ja- think most Jump," he says, "but they are perature Is nine degrees Fahrenhelt, not collection of rare pink diamonds In any it enforcement and lowering so drunk that we cannot be sure." By clr- counting the wind-chill factor from a whip- would benefit Japanese con- cling back, he has saved two of three who ping Baltic draft. "This is nothing." says By CRAIG FORMAN one piece,' said designer Paul Kut- chinsky. The egg opens to reveal a minia- Ill as U.S. exporters. have fallen during his watch. Lisa Pettersson, her voice muffled by a Staff Reporter of THE STREET JOURNAL ture library with cabinets and books. A was first greeted with much The 50-year-old captain has plloted oll hooded snowsult and balaclava. "You LONDON-London United Investments carousel then revolves to display a tiny it has since been followed tankers through the Dardanelles and coal should be here In January. PLC Is trying to assemble an Increase In portralt gallery where the eventual 11 the Japanese press about ships across the Atlantic. But the Baltic Ms. Pettersson used to prepare smor- financial reserves for Its Insurance units, owners could feature their family. law standard of living In Ja. run demands a special skill: patience. By gasbord on the ferries. Now she sells pick- some of which may be technically Insol- growing rhetoric from politi- law, travelers must stay offshore for at led gherkins and three specles of frozen vent due to U.S. liability claims. an should make changes to least 24 hours to buy duty-free. So the cap- fish In Marlehamn's square. She Is the only LUI, a London-based Insurance and In- TOYOTA IN TURKEY insumers. tain salls at half-speed to stretch the short Alander In sight. vestment company, suspended trading of trip Into a day-long voyage. "If dropped its shares on London's Stock Exchange Japan's Toyota Motor Corp. has ap- anchor outside Stockholm, he says, "al- Stamps and a Stuffed Reindeer Monday after announcing that "additional plied to the Turkish government for ap- Legislators Balk most no one would know the difference." "This one like salmon," she says, reserves may need to be made" for possi- proval of a plan to start passenger-car grasping stiff fish In her mitten. Picking ble Insurance claims largely stemming production In that country together with TE JOURNAL No Room in the Jall apanese legislators, meeting up another, she adds. "this one also like from Its U.S. liability policies. The suspen- two other companies. Toyota officials 0100 hours Unsteady as she goes. The salmon.' The third, she says, Is "not like sion followed a review requested by Brit- sald the Turkish government is now con- inls Tuesday. balked at U.S. Boomerang Disco Is rocking at full till salmon." She offers three for the price of ain's Department of Trade and Industry, sidering the plan submitted jointly with they enact broad economic when the ferry hits rough water. Swaying one. "Business Is not SO good," she says. which the government agency said ex- Toyota's partner In Turkey, Hacl Omer Ip shrink the U.S. deficit In dancers sway some more, lose their sea In summer, Aland Is a nice place for a posed "financial uncertaintles" at the Sabanel Holding AS, and Mitsul & Co., a pan. legs and fall on the crowded floor. Disc blke ride and piente. Now, the only attrac- units. The British government then or. giant Japanese trading house. The com- members of the Japan-U.S. jockey Margareta Thelander splus a slow tion Is the museum. which boasts a stuffed dered the units to suspend new underwrit- pany, to be tentatively capitalized at $150 IIIS League told U.S. Ambas- song and turns off the fog machine. "Peo- relndeer and a complete collection of Ing at the request of the company. million, would be owned 40% by Toyota, III Michael Armacust and hassy officials that reform ple are blind enough already,' she says. Aland stamps; An autonomous territory, LUI said Its best-known Insurance unit, 50% by Subancl and 10% by Mitsul. As the ferry tilts, dancers stugger Into Aland Issues Its OWN postage. good only for Walbrook Insurance Co., has d-use policies and Its retail the lobby. clutching at posts. The floor Is mail on the Island. stopped accepting new premiums, though stem would be difficult to carpeted with cigarette butts, broken glass Many day trippers end up at the police It continues to pay claims. Six smaller LUI FRENCH RACISM y. lawmakers attending the and passed-out drunks. Two men begin station. "Wei find them sleeping under reinsurance units, some of which advisers ting said. wrestling but the security guard. Mr. The bushes." says officer Lars Holmberg. descriped yesterday as "technically inso)- A French government commission mander decides MM to intervene "The Photo Copy Preservation really consumed. ernment. It came from the right na- The notion of locking up old for- ests from all man- and keep tion, too. Consider that East Ger- many carries the burden of a double agement and har- outrage against humanity. First it 52-1987 vesting is was a participant in Hitler's Reich, anathema to the media seem to be cele- Percent Swedish conser- A then - unlike West Germany - in brating Earth Day, which Stalin's. For a ruling class to have 87 change vationists, and 75 is fine with me. I am all for been so closely linked with two suc- percent of Swed- the current homage to the cessive imperial monsters might ish forests are earth that is happily sweeping the well need some forgiving. 28 9.6 still in private planet. But in giving the earth a pri- hands. Mr. Rem- ority, it would be self-defeating if we 56 23.9 rod said, while the failed to complete the triad of neces- Greens have in- L ong before Hitler, toward the end % sary human orientations. For being of the Age of Reason in the earth-oriented must be linked with late 18th Century, Immanuel fluenced Swedish being human-oriented and God- Kant gave us the right frame for 90 79.2 forestry some- judging the irrationalisms of the what, "At heart, oriented. 1% Herewith some reflections on the 20th Century. He put the now- the forester is a cultivator. For- triad. They were first evoked when historic question, "Was ist der Lothar de Maiziere, prime minister Mensch?" What is-man? Or putting 38 66.4 estry workers are creative people, of the new East German regime, ex- it differently, what does it mean to be human? 0% and after a har- It contains within it the enigma of vest, they want to 26 9.7 see something Max Lerner is a nationally syndi- cated columnist. new grow again." see LERNER, page F4 Not only has that approach led to a 30 percent The Washington Times ARNOLD BEICHMAN rise in annual Swedish timber growth (not to mention thriving pa- per, pulp and lumber industries), but it is far better for the world's envi- Ultimate arsenal ronmental "carbon budget" (carbon dioxide released into the atmos- MOSCOW Gorbachev, the Soviet peoples, the phere). ikhail Gorbachev is do- proposed economic and political re- A major new study by the God- M ing what he can with structuring of the Soviet Union and dard Space Institute and Columbia threats and with tanks in particular the future of national University shows forests may actu- and soldiers on the subdivisions such as the three Baltic ally "sink" (consume) more carbon streets of Vilnius to persuade the countries. than the ocean. But that is only true Lithuanian people to back off from The particular method of rule that of growing forests. Researchers independence demands. The Soviet Lenin introduced and that Stalin as found that mature forests give off as president is trying persuasion, pres- Lenin's brilliant disciple system- much carbon dioxide as they con- sure, an arrest here and there - atized was terror. However, it was a sume, and dead trees are carbon iron-fist-velvet-glove. particular kind of terror utterly dif- emitters. ferent from the anti-human actions His tactics and warnings will not NASA's James Hansen told a Na- of other modern tyrants, like those work. Lithuanians will not listen to tional Academy of Sciences work- of Mussolini, Generalissimo Franco him, or if they do it will not be for shop in January that, because of our of Spain, Antonio Salazar of Portu- growing forest volume, the United long. Estonians gal, the Greek and Latvians States may actually now be "sinking colonels, Trujillo won't listen to as much carbon as we emit." Yet all him, either, nor STALIN of the Dominican that growing wood volume is under Republic and private ownership! will the Moslems other Latin Amer- of Central Asia. ican dictators. And eventually Stalin's con- S adly, the socialist Greenies are the Ukrainians. temporaries prac- among the environment's They will not lis- ticed. torture and worst, if well-meaning, en- ten to Mr. Gorba- imposed horrible emies. Consider the outrage chev-unless of journalist Phyllis Austin in the prison conditions Unless he re- Boston Globe on March 26 over the against their op- introduces Stalin- ponents. What- purchase of the Great Northern ism, the Soviet Nekoosa forest by Georgia Pacific- ever one can say empire will fly about these evil a sale between two forest products apart. The exple- men, they did not companies: tive "Stalinism" not only refers to practice genocide as Stalin did. "For much of the 1980s, con- the totalitarian dictatorship of the cerned men and women stood Stalinist era but also refers to a par- Horrifying and genocidal as Hit- around hands in pockets while big ticular method of rule. ler's terror was, it still was different landowners sold and greedy subdi- The question of "Stalinism" has a from Stalin's because it was predict- viders carved up some of the north- great bearing on the future of Mr. able. If you were a Jew, a gypsy, a ern lands' cherished but unpro- Roman Catholic, your life in Nazi tected natural gems. But much Germany was in danger. Under Sta- remains within our grasp to save." lin all lives were in danger regard- Arnold Beichman, a research fel- less of race, creed or national origin. For the forests' sake, we hope not low at the Hoover Institution, is a too much. columnist for The Washington Times. see BEICHMAN, page F4 Copy Preservation Photo Photo Copy Preservation BEICHMAN Stalin's terror "worked." Today's gonov, recently described how on GPU executioner could tomorrow ai Dec. 12, 1937, Stalin and Molotov, the From page F1 GPU victim be, and the day after his then-Prime Minister, sanctioned the feared provoking a war with the So- as a defender of democracy. entire family. Today someone could executions of 3,167 people and then viet Union. Gen. Clay prevailed, ar- Administration officials have de- Stalin's secret police chiefs were be sentenced to 10 years in a labor they went off to the movies in the guing, "I believe the future of de- clined to speculate or hypothesize themselves executed scriatim. camp for a non-existing crime and evening. A story current in the black mocracy demands that stay put." about what they might do in the face Thousands of Red Army officers tomorrow someone else could be tor- days of Stalinism recounts how a On July 8, the Berlin airlift was of a blockade, but they had better were executed regardless of rank or tured and executed for the same Moscow concierge went around officially proclaimed. Joined by the have a workable contingency plan, service. non-existing crime. pounding on people's doors in the French and British, the airlift made as Gen. Clay did nearly 42 years ago. What made Stalin's terror unique 200,000 flights to Berlin and brought Where there are those who remain in history was that it was indis- Indiscriminate, unpredictable middle of the night and reassuring and, above all, ideological that was the trembling tenants, "Don't worry, nearly 2 million tons of food, indus- the reluctant captives of the ham- criminate, unpredictable and delib- the key to the "success" of Stalin's comrades, it's only the building on trial goods and coal to the city. mer and sickle, the least they should erately SO. "Docs any man tremble fire." As West German Chancellor Hel- expect is support from the United as I speak?" thundered Robespierre terror, how one man could so cow as he addressed the Constituent As- millions of people including his Purges, executions, assassina- mut Kohl has written, "Above and States and its allies when they put IN beyond these figures, the airlift was their lives on the line for freedom. At sembly during the French Rev- close associate, V.M. Molotov, who tions, torture, slave labor, a world of olution. "Then say he is guilty." Like paid no heed to the imprisonment at concentration camps went on for al- k- an important political demon- a minimum this should include food Stalin's order of Mrs. Molotov. A most a quarter of a century in the et stration." It showed the Soviets we and raw materials essential for daily Robespierre, who pioneered revolu- meant business about democracy living. tionary terror, for Stalin everybody Russian historian, Dmitri Volko- Soviet Union. Stalin never had any 16 organized opposition in his lifetime. iff and were willing, as John Kennedy was guilty; everyone was an enemy, No summit is worth trading away The old dictator died in bed in would later say, "to pay any price, women and children included. to a nation so leaders can smile at one March 1953 while he was planning ito bear any burden, support any friend, The victims of Stalin's terror, another. Neville Chamberlain tried Herein lie the seeds what would have been another purge le- oppose any foe" in tspursuit for oth- many of them his close associates, appeasing Hitler- by giving him of party associates and Russian its ers as well as its preservation for: could not predict their fates. Nikita Czechoslovakia. It didn't work. Nei. of Mr. Gorbachev's Jewry. an ourselves. Khrushchev described in his mem- ther will Mr. Gorbachev be pacified ict oirs how when a call came from Sta- In other words, Stalin's power was Such resolve has always worked if the United States "gives" him Lith- imminent failure. credible and his use of terror was th with the Soviets. Under Ronald Rea- lin for a midnight conference at the uania. The U.S. policy should be credible. Nobody was safe because gan, it produced the current wave of freedom for all until all are free. If Kremlin, you kissed your family Without Stalinism, Stalin completed the work Lenin had freedom now sweeping most of East- an airlift or sealift is necessary, then goodbye because you didn't know if ern Europe. you would come back. the Soviet Union is begun - the destruction of civil so- Berlin offers the model. All that re- The innocent and the so-called ciety. Everybody was turning every- President Bush is in a delicate po- mains is for the Bush administration doomed. body else in, including best friends sition over Lithuania. He wants next to exercise the courage. guilty were equally at risk during and, relatives, in the vain hope of month's summit to come off without the Stalin terror. And that was why self-exculpation. It was life in a state r a hitch in order to maintain the mo- of nature, the war of all against all. mentum that has brought Eastern Mr. Gorbachev has not used ter- Europe so far, so fast. But there is a ror to impose and extend his rule. In greater question involved. Is the fact, there has been nothing like price of freedom for the rest of Eu- PSST...! Stalin's reign of terror since 1953, rope worth the refusal of support necessary for Lithuania to be free? not under Khrushchev, Brezhnev, ob- If Lithuania's leaders were to CRUSH LITHUANIA! Andropov or Chernenko. Mr. Gorba- chev has introduced a simulacrum m- plead for Western help to survive a red Soviet blockade, surely the United of a rule of law that, of course, pre- cludes a reign of terror. Without in- States would be guilty of gross im- to discriminate, unpredictable use of morality if it turned its back. nit terror, people, hitherto cowed by the What if Lithuania's president ion state, will risk punishment, at worst were to make a speech similar to the ion imprisonment, sure in the knowl- one delivered on Sept. 9, 1948, by ing edge that there will be no execution, Berlin's mayor, Ernst Reuter: ity. no torture, no long jail terms, and "People of the world, people of ray, above all no reprisals against fam- America, England, France, Italy| ilies. ted Look at this city and admit that you off Herein lie the seeds of Mr. Gorba- may not and cannot betray this city 23, chev's imminent failure. Without or its citizens! We have done our hey Stalinism, the Soviet Union as we duty and we will continue to do our of have known it since Stalin's death is duty. People of the world, do yours! the doomed. And that raises the ques- Help us in the time ahead not just tion: with the rumble of your aircraft en- Will Gorbachev or his successors -in- gines, not just with the means of and in an act of desperation born out of transportation which you send, but of an hysterical apprehension try to im- also by standing as firmly, as indomi- resurrect Stalinism? Even if he or tably for those common ideals which es- his successors wanted to, could they alone can guarantee our future and or have things gone too far for a me yours! People of the world, look to perestroika'ed Stalinism? I don't in. Berlin! And people of Berlin, you Ira- know nor at the moment, in my opin- can be certain, we want to win this ion, does Mr. Gorbachev himself me battle and we will win!" President Bush could not ignore a similar call from Lithuania's leader- GORBACHEV know as he improvises from day to day. ndi- COPLEY NEWS But soon he'll have to make up his ship and maintain much credibility mind what it's to be. any way against him, he will wipe sein is like that of other state and FIELDS In the sexual foundered only when she chose to out half of Israel with his military sectarian terrorists in the Middle make it prosaic in her semiautobio- technology. This includes lethal East. They accept no limits because From page F1 equation, the woman graphical novel, "The Mandarins." chemical and biological weapons, of their certitude that they are act- Nelson Algren knew something that be and can desolate a population, even ing as agents of God. What they for- without the atom bomb that Saddam like get is that to strip yourself of your everyone is sexy, and everyone is is the more powerful, Simone de Beauvoir never learned, Hussein is trying to assemble. There powerful." the And that's why these women will holding the power to that such a love affair requires mys- humanity is to betray the very god- tery. He reviewed her book, bitterly. was some protest in the West, but it head to which you are oriented. ary was lost amid the onrush of other This applies, in a somewhat differ- never find a party to be as "sexually say yes or no. It is Today, Hollywood strains to incor- now charged" as they want it to be. Love porate feminism into scripts by giv- events. ent fashion, to the pollution and des- een real olation of the earth. Like Eden, the and desire require difference, not just this power that ing women ideologically correct I take threats from armed psycho- equality. Sexual attraction relies on roles to play, which often lead to ex- paths seriously. I go back, in mem- earth was given to humans "to dress perceived power, which is very dif- the rapist wants to emotions deeply felt but ideologi- ong ory, to Hitler's 1938 speech at one of and to keep." It is a striking fact that ferent from actual power. John Gil- vho the big Nazi rallies, after a young the Marxist elites, who had de- destroy. cally incorrect. In "Impulse," for ex- nounced God but were certain of bert, the man, was not more pow- ample, a movie directed by a woman, em- Jew in Paris had shot a German dip- erful than Greta Garbo, the woman. a female cop is stalked by a serial that lomat. With a glacial coldness, amid their dream society, were as ruthless It was the differences between male killer. Although she's as tough as his fiery oration, he said he would with the desecration of the earth as and female that gave them their on- of the pleasures of the Garden of ling nails on her beat, she goes all viet with the massacre at Katyn Forest Eden forever. hold the "parasite" Jewry to ac- screen electricity, compelling elec- squishy inside when she's with her count, and promised to wipe out|Eu- or the liquidation of the kulaks in the ma- tron to pursue electron. Off-screen, Simone de Beauvoir, mother of boyfriend, an assistant district at- pof rope's Jews. He all but did. Soviet Union. The earth pollutions she rejected him. modern feminism, enjoyed intellec- torney. She cries hysterically that ible uncovered in Eastern Europe today tual equality with Jean Paul Satre, she's more afraid of losing the boy- Radical evil is an enigma because be go beyond anything that the West In the sexual equation, the woman but she paid a price. She had to suffer friend than being found by the killer. its perpetrators, whether Nazis or German Greens railed against. is the more powerful, holding the his bringing his mistresses home to Garbo is more convincing as communists or world terrorists, What does it mean to be human? power to say yes or no. In fact, it is meet her. woman, as in her role as Anna Chris- 90, have usually acted out of a belief that It means awe for the limits that God just this power that the rapist wants When she met Chicago novelist tie, a woman tough and proud, who de- they were the agents for building a imposes on our arrogance, rever- to destroy. It was the power of the Nelson Algren, who didn't give a understands what it takes to be fe- Its better world. Secure in that belief, ence for the earth out of which we female that made Adam reach for hoot about her feminism, she reveled male: "Gimme a visky with chincher ned they recognized no limits on their come, and the understanding that as the fruit proffered by Eve, even in what she describes as "a beau- ale the dun't be stingy, in actions. The case of Saddam Hus- humans we are part of each other. though he knew it would deprive him tiful, corny love story," a love that baby." A28 THE NEW YORK TIMES, WEDNESDAY, OC' ARTHUR OCHS SULZBERGER. Publisher Letters ARTHUR OCHS SULZBERGER JR., Deputy Publisher MAX FRANKEL. Executive Editor ARTHUR GELB. Managing Editor JOSEPH LELYVELD. Deputy Managing Editor Capital The New York Times WARREN HOGE, Assistant Managing Editor DAVID R. JONES. Assistant Managing Editor To the Edit JOHN M. LEE. Assistant Managing Editor Your ALLAN M. SIEGAL. Assistant Managing Editor Gains Founded in 1851 made JACK ROSENTHAL. Editorial Page Editor ADOLPH S. OCHS, Fublisher 1896-1935 LESLIE H. GELB. Deputy Editorial Page Editor the 0' ARTHUR HAYS SULZBERGER, Publisher 1935-1961 and S ORVIL E. DRYFOOS. Publisher 1961-1963 LANCE R. PRIMIS. President pose HOWARD BISHOW, Sr. V.P., Operations hidd- RUSSELL T. LEWIS, Sr. V.P., Production tax I ERICH G. LINKER JR., Sr. V.P., Advertising is or JOHN M. O'BRIEN, Sr. V.P., Finance/Human Resources by b ELISE J. ROSS, Sr. V.P., Systems W WILLIAM L. POLLAK, V.P., Circulation gair cen adc tak $8 Photo Copy Preservation the Help Who? av be ga sa We are prepared to provide technical assist- "show-me" stance. Saying it was time to move "be- lic ance in certain areas of Soviet economic reform. yond containment" to "integration of the Soviet us We want perestroika to succeed Union into the community of nations," Mr. Bush in- CI Such words would have been unutterable in offi- sisted the new relationship had to be "earned." le cial Washington even a few months ago. Such di The deputy national security adviser, Robert thoughts would have been unimaginable just a few Gates, wondered whether the Soviet changes were be years ago. To Ronald Reagan, the Soviet Union was fundamental and irreversible. Defense Secretary Iii the evil empire. To Americans generally, the Dick Cheney predicted Mr. Gorbachev would fall. kr U.S.S.R. remained the implacable enemy. Deputy Secretary of State Lawrence Eagleburger at That Secretary of State James Baker can now warned of "the danger that change in the East will qu say these words, out of American self-interest, sig- prove too destabilizing to be sustained" and dispar- W. nals a welcome, monumental moment in the history aged calls for "measures to insure the success of sr of the cold war and of the Bush Administration. Gorbachev's reforms." fo hi Probably not since World War II, when U.S. Now, in one strong speech, Mr. Baker has cargo ships carried lend-lease aid to Murmansk and moved to reassure the Soviets that the Administra- ca Stalin was still old "Uncle Joe," have American offi- tion recognizes its own interest in their reforms and til. cials spoken so openly in support of a Soviet leader. to enlist Americans to act on that recognition. the And at no time since taking office has this Adminis- Mr. Baker's offer of technical assistance is me tration so clearly acknowledged the significance of modest, yet to be spelled out. Even so, there's noth- pe: Mikhail Gorbachev's efforts to transform his econ- ing presumptuous about this help. The U.S. may not sou omy and society. clin have an answer to the Communists' problem, how In marked contrast to the dangers perceived by to move from a command economy to a demand others in the Administration, Mr. Baker looks upon economy. But it can share its abundant experience F perestroika as a "historic opportunity." He offers with markets. few specifics but his tone is reassuringly right. Soviet and U.S. economists already exchange To The Administration's hesitancy till now has in- ideas, as the Federal Reserve chairman, Alan spired puzzlement, even alarm. The White House Greenspan, did in Moscow last week. Economics de- "R seemed unable to comprehend the vast transforma- partments and business schools are welcoming (Se tion in the Soviet Union, even conveying the impres- Soviet students and managers. Perhaps Washington duo sion that it wanted Mr. Gorbachev to fail. First the can help with a new version of Fulbright (why not ave Administration spokesmen said Mr. Gorbachev bee call them Kennan?) grants. The Jackson-Vanik last wasn't serious; then that he wouldn't last; finally amendment awaits repeal, to open trade. nie: that his reforms posed risks to the U.S. But before the Administration finally starts is n President Bush set the earlier tone in four doing the right thing, it's worth applauding Mr. tion speeches this spring. Instead of welcoming the Baker's willingness, finally, to say the right thing: thir changes in Moscow and reciprocating, he adopted a We want perestroika to succeed. D 5/12 not? parr 5/1 chin Unnecessary or Worse, for Airlines 7/17 than more lion year) Your editorial, ("Help Who?" October 18, 1989), based on a speech earlier this month by Secretary of State James Baker, claims to see a shift in U.S. -Soviet policy where there is none. This results from the heavy emphasis placed by the Times' editorial writers on Secretary Baker's statement that "We want perestroika to succeed." Mr. Baker's views on perestroika are right on the money. What readers of the Times editorial wouldn't know is that Mr. Baker's views are also the President's. Despite the fact the Times' claims Mr. Baker's statement on the the success of perestroika to "have been unutterable even a few months ago," those words were uttered all spring -- and on two continents -- by none other than George Bush. While speeches don't carry footnotes, interested readers can find the phrase "I want to see perestroika succeed" in President August and September 18. Bush's statements of May 1, May 24, June 8, July 6, July 17, July 27 28 SKDFFS govvens presde Services of Mead Data Central PAGE 2 3RD STORY of Level 1 printed in FULL format. Copyright (c) 1989 The Washington Post November 24, 1989, Friday, Final Edition SECTION: EDITORIAL; PAGE A23 LENGTH: 920 words HEADLINE: Looking Back on the Eighties-And the revival and triumph of the West. BYLINE: Charles Krauthammer BODY: Rarely does history respect the calendar, but this time events have conspired to demarcate precisely the 1980s. Christmas, 1979, the day of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, marks the apogee of the Soviet empire. November of 1989, with the communist crackup in Eastern Europe, marks its nadir. What happened in the interval defines the '80s. They will be remembered - long after the avarice, the corruption and the other delightful excesses of the time are forgotten ----- as the decade of the revival and triumph of the West. Nineteen-seventy-nine was the annus mirabilis of the Soviet imperium. In that one year, Iran turned fanatically anti-American, and the Soviets or their clients seized Afghanistan, Nicaragua, Cambodia and, just to rub it in, Grenada. It was also the West's postwar low, as oil shocks, inflation and the hostage crisis completed America's post-Vietnam demoralization. Then, the great turn, which came not with Reagan's inaugural but, in the interest of historical neatness, in 1980, the last year of the Carter administration. It was a post-Afghanistan Jimmy Carter who reasserted a foreign policy hard line (arming the mujaheddin, embargoing Soviet grain, cutting off aid to the Sandinistas). It was then too that Carter's Federal Reserve chairman, Paul Volcker, began squeezing the economy to break inflation. Reagan finished the job with a vengeance. He let Volcker's cruel but inflation-breaking recession proceed though the 1982 election year. He challenged the Soviets to an all-out arms race with which they could not keep up. He brandished SDI, which the Soviets read as a sign that the United States was prepared to use its technological superiority to trump Soviet military power, their one claim to superpower status. NATO then held together for the most overlooked geopolitical victory of the '80s: the successful deployment of the intermediate-range nuclear missiles (INF) in Europe, thus facing down both Soviet threats and the West's peace movement. The final straw was the Reagan Doctrine, which put American arms and money behind a worldwide anticommunist guerrilla campaign that gave the Soviets "bleeding wounds" on three continents. And just when they thought they had America down, the combination of INF, SDI, the Reagan Doctrine and the huge defense buildup made it clear to the Soviets that they were facing a future that they could only lose. American resilience in this decade came as a shock to the Soviets. Their new foreign policy is the residue of that shock. LEXIS® NEXIS® LEXIS® R NEXIS® Services of Mead Data Central PAGE 3 (c) 1989 The Washington Post, November 24, 1989 After all, the Soviets had achieved something astonishing: for 40 years they had singlehandedly taken on the most formidable alliance of great powers in history - the United States, Britain, France, Japan, two-thirds of Germany and a host of other highly industrialized countries -- and held it to a draw. At the end of the '80s, it became clear to Gorbachev that this could not continue. In July of 1988, Eduard Shevardnadze before his own Foreign Ministry workers scornfully rejected "the idea, which gained a firm hold in the minds and deeds of certain strategists, that the Soviet Union could be as strong as any possible coalition of states opposing it." Their only hope was to abandon a losing contest. They sued for peace. Who killed communism? There is a lot of credit to go around. But certainly none goes to those who since 1972 have urged, "Come home, America." Who opposed the defense buildup. Who inflamed the nuclear hysteria of the early '80s and joined its panicked, now merely quaint, call for a nuclear freeze. Who called for a moratorium on INF, i.e., a surrender to the street. Who denounced the Reagan Doctrine on the grounds that it was the road to Vietnam, when, in fact, it turned Brezhnev's empire into a Soviet Vietnam. Wrong on every count. Now foreign policy liberals are reduced to arguing that the monumental collapse of the Soviet empire is the work of one man whose rise is some complicated accident of Russian history. The Gorbachev reversal is no accident. It was the premise and the goal of the entire policy of containment, as outlined by George Kennan in 1947. "It would be an exaggeration to say that American behavior unassisted and alone could bring about the early fall of Soviet power in Russia," he wrote. "But the United States has it in its power to increase enormously the strains under which Soviet policy must operate and in this way to promote tendencies which must eventually find their outlet in either the breakup or the gradual mellowing of Soviet power." The '80s represent the final fulfillment of that policy. Which is why with the waning of the decade the conservatives' time might soon be up. Voters are not sentimental. They don't give points for past achievement. They turned out Winston Churchill less than three months after V-E Day. The rule is: What have you done for me lately? After the Democratic Party built the magnificent structure of the New Deal, it ran out of ideas, and the voters threw the rascals out. Conservatives have done what they were asked to do in 1980: break inflation and restore Western power. Their job is done. The voters sense it. The Republicans took a whipping in the 1989 elections. Their social agenda (most prominently, abortion) proved unenactable. And that was the fallback for a party whose economic and foreign policy agenda has already been enacted. There is another turn ahead. Democrats will do everything in their power to blow it, but one new idea and the '90s belongs to them. GRAPHIC: ILLUSTRATION, WELLS FOR THE AUGUSTA CHRONICLE TYPE: OPINION EDITORIAL ENHANCEMENT: NINETEEN-EIGHTIES LEXIS® NEXIS® LEXIS® NEXIS Services of Mead Data Central PAGE 4 5TH STORY of Level 1 printed in FULL format. Copyright (c) 1989 The Washington Post November 17, 1989, Friday, Final Edition SECTION: EDITORIAL; PAGE A23 LENGTH: 859 words HEADLINE: Dangers of Liberation BYLINE: Charles Krauthammer BODY: There was some mindless complaining last week that President Bush had shown insufficient enthusiasm for the fall of the Berlin Wall. What was he supposed to do? Get up and sing "Deutschland Ueber Alles?" Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell (D-Maine) suggested that Bush hasten to Berlin. And say what? You don't visit the site of a revolution in order to emote. You go to give definition to the revolution, to enunciate a new policy, to offer a vision of (forgive the phrase) a new order. Mitchell had no suggestion as to what the new order might be. Or you can go to gloat. There is little the United States can do to help the liberation of Eastern Europe. But there is one thing it can do to hinder. That is to shove a thumb in Mikhail Gorbachev's eye by crowing about the obvious, namely that communism is finished, and its empire dissolving. Proclaiming our manifest victory would serve only to energize Gorbachey's internal enemies and further demoralize his allies. Which is why Bush's semi-comatose response to the opening of the Wall, whether calculated or not, was exactly right. Not because we are unmoved. This is the fulfillment of a 40-year twilight struggle. If we don't make any radical errors, we win. Eastern Europe will be normalized. Stalin's empire will be liquidated. The Soviet Union itself might see its fate and future tied to ours. A couple of days of dancing in the streets to mark the beginning of the end are perfectly appropriate. But that was Nov. 9. Time is now up. After the party, sober reflection on the dangers of liberation. Those who insist on raising cautions as the Wall falls are said to be either nostalgic for the Cold War or pathologically obsessed with the German threat. Let's be clear: there is nothing about the Cold War to warrant nostalgia. It was a worthy struggle, as any Pole or Berliner will tell you, but like all war it was nasty and wearing. The only thing to recommend it was its simplicity. Simplicity, however, is not a reason for nostalgia. World War II was simple, too, and no one pines for Pearl Harbor or, for that matter, Hiroshima. Larry Eagleburger was jumped on as a Cold War nostalgic for saying the obvious: that the bipolarity of the Cold War made for intellectual simplicity and political stability. The multipolar world that is dawning will, at least at the beginning, be less simple and less stable. Às the game goes from ping-pong to billiards it gets harder. The more interactions, the more possibilities for error and tragedy. LEXIS® NEXIS® LEXIS® ® NEXIS Services of Mead Data Central PAGE 5 (c) 1989 The Washington Post, November 17, 1989 The billiard balls that have been set in motion are precisely those Central European nationalisms Serbian, Hungarian, German, etc. -- that earlier in this century collided and combusted into two world wars. You don't have to have Hitlerian nightmares or believe in the mechanical repetition of history to temper your enthusiasm for a sudden end to Europe's cruel but tranquilizing postwar division. History has not ended It has merely moved east. Central Europe, frozen for half a century by totalitarianism, is rejoining history. In many ways that means pick ing up where it left off. It is yet another cosmic joke that the great questions rising to meet Europe at the end of the 20th century are precisely those it faced at the beginning --- and mistakenly assumed to have been buried by two world wars. From Stettin in the Baltic to Trieste in the Adriatic, an Iron Curtain is collapsing. And behind it, nationalisms long suppressed are astirring. They're back: the Balkan, Hapsburg and now, the German question. The names may change. Now we ask: Can Yugoslavia survive? What kind of independence is possible for the successor states of Central Europe (Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia)? But the underlying issue -- Central European nationalism -- endures. Can Europe contain the dynamism of a reunified German giant? Will that giant forever renounce its lost territories and forever forswear nuclear weapons? The German question, though the largest, is just one of many. Albanians and Serbs, Bulgarians and Turks, Hungarians and Romanians are remembering antagonisms that the 20th century was thought to have rendered obsolete. When Hungary held its intensely moving reburial of Imre Nagy last spring, Romania denounced the act as not only anti-socialist but "anti-Romania." In Budapest, the kiosks already carry maps of "Greater Hungary" that include territory now belonging to Yugoslavia. When Chancellor Kohl visited Poland last weekend, he was greeted in the lost German province of Silesia by signs saying "Helmut, you're our chancellor, too." Ein Volk Irredentism did not die in 1945. It was merely suppressed by the superpowers. The West may have transcended its murderous nationalisms during the last half century by developing such a high degree of economic integration, cultural symbiosis and political coordination that territorial complaints (of the Basques, for example) look positively quaint. But Eastern Europe, which has lost half a century of economic and social development, may need that much time to work out its long-suppressed ancient animosities. Three cheers for liberation. Now comes the hard part. TYPE: OPINION EDITORIAL SUBJECT: U.S. PRESIDENT; UNITED STATES; EAST GERMANY/GERMAN DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC; EASTERN EUROPE / SOVIET BLOC; INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS ORGANIZATION: COLD WAR LEXIS® NEXIS® LEXIS® NEXIS® Services of Mead Data Central PAGE 6 14TH STORY of Level 1 printed in FULL format. Copyright (c) 1989 The Washington Post October 27, 1989, Friday, Final Edition SECTION: EDITORIAL; PAGE A19 LENGTH: 876 words HEADLINE: Baker on Perestroika's Promise BYLINE: Charles Krauthammer BODY: Is Mikhail Gorbachev the Soviet Union's Jimmy Carter? His conduct, which has post-Afghanistan syndrome written all over it, is strikingly reminiscent of American conduct at a similar malaise-ridden juncture in our history. Consider: Gorbachev repudiates his country's role in a losing foreign adventure, denouncing the invasion of Afghanistan as immoral and illegal. He openly admits to a whole host of national sins, the latest being the brazen Soviet violation of the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. He pledges absolute independence and hands off for countries previously under Soviet domination. He at least suspends the Brezhnev Doctrine and lets Eastern Europe go its own way (much as Carter did for our back yard, Latin America - backing off Nicaragua, decolonizing the Panama Canal and generally retiring the Monroe Doctrine for the rest of the hemisphere). He repeatedly renounces hegemony and embraces interdependence, which recalls Sestanovich's Law (named for the noted Sovietologist) that countries that talk about interdependence - the United States in the '70s, the Soviets today - are invariably in decline. His domestic economy is failing, with inflation surging and living standards falling. For his labors, he is earning points abroad, while steadily losing support at home. The reason that this should be a cautionary analogy is that while the Carter years were good for the U.S.S.R., which acquired an impressive Third World empire during that time. Those years were immediately followed by the Reagan reaction, which was bad for the Soviet Union. It is thus quite possible that the Gorbachev years will be followed by the Ligachev reaction -- though the betting is that if there is a Soviet counterrevolution, Gorbachev will lead it ---- that will not be good for us. The corollary is that for now Gorbachev is good for us. Secretary of State James Baker's loud and official declaration to that effect is a welcome development. We do have a large stake in the success of Gorbachev's program. True, the chances of that success are small and receding. Gorbachey's attempt to reform the Soviet economy incrementally has been likened to a country trying to switch, gradually, from driving on the left-hand side of the road to the right. Nonetheless, even if perestroika ultimately fails, we have an interest in its mere continuation. The longer it goes on, the harder it becomes to reverse its effects. And these effects are dramatic: the rapid de-communization of Hungary and Poland, with East Germany and Czechoslovakia to follow; the arousal of nationalist feelings within the Soviet republics; and, most important, the rise of civil society as a challenge to the state throughout the Soviet Empire, a challenge that heretofore totalitarianism had specialized in crushing. LEXIS® ® NEXIS® LEXIS® NEXIS® Services of Mead Data Central PAGE 7 (c) 1989 The Washington Post, October 27, 1989 China shows that these expressions of popular sentiment are not irreversible. They can be put down. But the longer they go on and the more organized they become, the higher the cost of putting them down and, thus, the less the likelihood of massive repression if Moscow suffers a change of regime or Gorbachev a change of heart. Baker is less convincing when he says that because Gorbachev may not be there forever, all the more reason for us to hurry and conclude arms control agreements with him while we can. His point is that if these agreements impose structural constraints on the Soviets -- troop withdrawals, reductions in military personnel, destruction of weapons -- even a new regime in the Kremlin could not easily reverse these changes. True, but it could still reverse them far more easily than any American government could. (Arms agreements would impose structural changes on the United States too.) When it comes to rearmament, the White House is far more politically constrained than the Kremlin. In a soured international environment, which country would be more likely to rebuild the military, reactivate the assembly lines and return troops to Central Europe? This is not to argue against concluding arms treaties with Gorbachev. It is only to argue against rushing into them. They have to be framed in such a way that if post-Gorbachev they are broken, as the Soviets now admit they broke the ABM Treaty, Western deterrence will not have been fatally compromised. Those who issue such cautions are usually derided as hard-liners, closed to the marvelous new possibilities of the Gorbachevian universe. As I recall, however, not too long ago those who insisted that the Soviets unconditionally tear down their radar station at Krasnoyarsk were also denounced as hard-liners - seeking, by stressing Soviet violations, to undermine the entire arms control enterprise. It was a group of congressional soft-liners who traveled to Krasnoyarsk, looked at the radar, and said, with wonderful sophistry, that while it might be illegal it wasn't. Why? Because "it is clearly not deployed. Thus we judge it not to be a violation of the ABM Treaty at this time." Soft-liners are now in retreat. Indeed, they have suffered the ultimate humiliation: they are being refuted, not by Cap Weinberger but by Eduard Shevardnadze. It is Gorbachev who is telling us that the hard-liners were right all along. His authority is good enough for me. TYPE: OPINION EDITORIAL SUBJECT: UNITED STATES; U.S.S.R.; INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS NAMED-PERSONS: MIKHAIL GORBACHEV; JAMES BAKER III LEXIS® NEXIS® LEXIS® NEXIS® Services of Mead Data Central PAGE 8 19TH STORY of Level 1 printed in FULL format. Copyright (c) 1989 The New York Times Company; The New York Times October 22, 1989, Sunday, Late Edition - Final SECTION: Section 6; Page 38, Column 1; Magazine Desk LENGTH: 4738 words HEADLINE: WHAT IS FUKUYAMA SAYING? AND TO WHOM IS HE SAYING IT? BYLINE: By James Atlas; James Atlas is an editor of this magazine. BODY: THE YEAR 2000 FAST APPROACHES, and millennial doom is in the air. Global warming, nuclear proliferation, chaos in Eastern Europe. Even the notion of post is over. Post-modernism, post-history, post-culture (to borrow the critic George Steiner's term) - we're beyond that now. 'The sun is about to set on the post-industrial era,'' declares the economist Lester C. Thurow in The New York Times. What follows post? Samuel P. Huntington, Eaton Professor of the Science of Government at Harvard, has a name for the latest eschatological craze: ''endism. The critic Arthur C. Danto theorizes on ''the end of art.'' Bill McKibben, a former staff writer for The New Yorker, issues a dire report on ''The End of Nature. Clearly, it's late in the day. On the face of it, the lead article in the summer issue of The National Interest, a neoconservative journal published in Washington, seemed like more bad news. ''The End of History?'' it asked. The author, Francis Fukuyama, a State Department official, was unknown to the public, but his article was accompanied by ''responses'' from Irving Kristol, Allan Bloom, Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan and others notable for their gloomy prognostications. The magazine's readers were in for a surprise. What was Fukuyama saying? That the end of history is good news. What is happening in the world, claimed his eloquent essay, is nothing less than ''the triumph of the West. How else to explain the free elections in Poland and Hungary? The reform movement in China? The East German exodus? In Fukuyama's interpretation, borrowed (and heavily adapted) from the German philosopher G.W.F. Hegel, history is a protracted struggle to realize the idea of freedom latent in human consciousness. In the 20th century, the forces of totalitarianism have been decisively conquered by the United States and its allies, which represent the final embodiment of this idea 'that is, the end point of mankind's ideological evolution and the universalization of Western liberal democracy.'' In other words, we win. Within weeks, ''The End of History?'' had become the hottest topic around, this year's answer to Paul Kennedy's phenomenal best seller, ''The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers. George F. Will was among the first to weigh in, with a Newsweek column in August; two weeks later, Fukuyama's photograph appeared in Time. The French quarterly Commentaire announced that it was devoting a special issue to ''The End of History?'' The BBC sent a television crew. Translations of the piece were scheduled to appear in Dutch, Japanese, Italian and Icelandic. LEXIS® NEXIS® LEXIS® NEXIS® Services of Mead Data Central PAGE 9 (c) 1989 The New York Times, October 22, 1989 Ten Downing Street requested a copy. In Washington, a newsdealer on Connecticut Avenue reported, the summer issue of The National Interest was ''outselling everything, even the pornography.' ''Controversial'' didn't begin to cover the case. Unlike that other recent philosophical cause celebre, Allan Bloom's ''The Closing of the American Mind, Fukuyama's essay was the work of a representative from what is often referred to in academic circles as the real world. This was no professor, according to the contributor's note that ran in the magazine, but the 'deputy director of the State Department's policy planning staff. It wasn't just the message, then; it was the source. Maybe there was an agenda here By mid-September, Peter Tarnoff, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, could speculate on the Op-Ed page of The New York Times that ''The End of History?'' was ''laying the foundation for a Bush doctrine. Not bad for a 16-page article in a foreign-policy journal with a circulation of 6,000. YOU HAVE TO PASS THROUGH A METAL detector to get to Francis Fukuyama's office in the State Department, and the silver plaques beside the doors - INTERNATIONAL NARCOTICS MATTERS, NUCLEAR RISK REDUCTION CENTER confirm that this isn't a philosophy department. But the elegant private dining room on the 8th floor, overlooking the Potomac, could easily be mistaken for an Ivy League faculty club. Plush carpets, chandeliers, a sideboard out of Sturbridge Village, oil portraits of 19th-century dignitaries on the walls - an environment conducive to shoptalk about Hegel. It's mid-September, and the arrival of Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze for meetings with Fukuyama's boss, James A. Baker 3d, is less than a week away. ''It's a busy time,' says Fukuyama, apologetically. Apart from assisting in the preparation of ''talking points'' for the Secretary of State, he's been besieged with telephone calls from book editors and agents eager to cash in on his famous article. How does he account for the commotion? ''I don't understand it myself,' Fukuyama says quietly, sipping a Coke. ''I didn't write the article with any relevance to policy. It was just something I'd been thinking about. He does seem an unlikely celebrity. (But so was Paul Kennedy. So was Allan Bloom.) His khaki suit has an off-the-rack look about it, and he speaks in a tentative, measured voice, more intent on making himself clear than on making an impression. A youthful 36, he emanates a professorial air - an assistant professorial air. Fukuyama doesn't quite fit the neo-conservative stereotype. Whatever ideological direction he has gone in lately, he's still a child of the 60's. He belongs to the Sierra Club; he's nostalgic for California, where he worked for the Rand Corporation; he worries about pesticides in the backyard of the small red-brick bungalow in the Virginia suburbs where he lives with his wife and infant daughter. ' 'The last thing I want to be interpreted as saying is that our society is a utopia, or that there are no more problems, he stresses. ''I simply don't see any competitors to modern democracy.' In short, he's a liberal neo-conservative. LEXIS® NEXIS® LEXIS® NEXIS® Services of Mead Data Central PAGE 10 (c) 1989 The New York Times, October 22, 1989 Fukuyama grew up in Manhattan's Stuyvesant Town, a middle-class housing development on the Lower East Side. His father was a Congregational minister who later became a professor of religion, and Fukuyama's own direction in the beginning was toward an academic career. As a freshman at Cornell in 1970, he was a resident of Telluride House, a sort of commune for philosophy students; Allan Bloom was the resident Socrates. They shared meals and talked philosophy until all hours, living the good life Bloom would later evoke in ' ' The Closing of the American Mind,' the professor and his disciples sitting around the cafeteria discussing the Great Books. Fukuyama majored in classics, then did graduate work in comparative literature at Yale, where he studied with the deconstructionist Paul de Man (who would achieve posthumous notoriety when it was discovered that he'd published pro-Nazi articles in the Belgian press at the height of World War ID. ''It was kind of an intellectual side journey,' Fukuyama says. After Yale, he spent six months in Paris, sitting in on classes with Roland Barthes and Jacques Derrida, whose abstruse and fashionable discours would become required reading for a generation of American graduate students. Fukuyama was less than impressed. ''I was turned off by their nihilistic idea of what literature was all about, he recalls. ''It had nothing to do with the world. I developed such an aversion to that whole over-intellectual approach that I turned to nuclear weapons instead. He enrolled in Harvard's government department, where he studied Middle Eastern and Soviet politics. Three years later he got a Ph.D. in political science, writing his thesis on Soviet foreign policy in the Middle East. Fukuyama's first job out of the academic world was at the Rand Corporation in Santa Monica. Then, in 1981, Paul D. Wolfowitz, director of policy planning in the Reagan Administration (and also a former student of Bloom's), invited him to join his staff. Fukuyama worked in Washington for two years, then returned to Rand. For the next six years, he wrote papers for Rand on Soviet foreign policy, speculating on such weighty matters as ''Pakistan Since the Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan'' and 'Soviet Civil-Military Relations and the Power Projection Mission. In ''Gorbachev and the Third World'' (published in the spring 1986 issue of Foreign Affairs), Fukuyama claimed that Soviet foreign policy was still expansionist, and that despite efforts to economize at home and act conciliatory abroad, Gorbachev was quietly ''trying to stake out a more combative position' in client nations like Angola and Afghanistan, Libya and Nicaragua. The message of these heavily footnoted articles was clear: The cold war is still on. Last February, shortly before he returned to Washington to become deputy to Dennis Ross, the new director of policy planning, Fukuyama gave a lecture at the University of Chicago in which he surveyed the international political scene. It was sponsored by his former professor, Allan Bloom. ' 'My whole life has been spent in organizations that prize technical expertise, says Fukuyama. ''I was anxious to deal with larger and more important issues'' - what Bloom calls ''the big questions. As it happened, Owen Harries, co-editor of The National Interest, was looking around for a think piece on the current situation - a piece, as Harries explains it, that would ''link history with the great traditions of political thought. Harries got hold of Fukuyama's lecture and instantly recognized that it was LEXIS® NEXIS® LEXIS® ® NEXIS® Services of Mead Data Central PAGE 11 (c) 1989 The New York Times, October 22, 1989 ''a provocative, stimulating essay, just what the times needed.' HARRIES, A DONNISH, PIPE-SMOKING Welshman whose desk is piled high with books - he was educated at Oxford and was for many years a professor of politics - belongs to a type that exists only in Washington. Leon Wieseltier, literary editor of The New Republic, calls them ''policy intellectuals. In New York, people talk about the latest issue of Vanity Fair; in Washington, they talk about the latest issue of Foreign Policy. Some of these policy intellectuals are in government; Carnes Lord, the author of a highly regarded translation of Aristotle's 'Politics,' is national security adviser to Vice President Quayle. Others are ''fellows'' or ''scholars'' at the Heritage Foundation or the Brookings Institution. Often, they have grand titles; Michael Novak, for instance, is the George Frederick Jewett Scholar in Religion and Public Policy at the American Enterprise Institute. Many are fugitives from academic life. ''A lot of people around the office came up to me after the article appeared, Fukuyama says. 'Hegelians who hadn't gotten tenure. The political orientation is well to the right. 'We hold to a traditional view of foreign policy, says Owen Harries. And what does he mean by 'traditional''? ''The belief that power politics is still in business. A belief in the efficacy of force. The National Interest is clearly a well-heeled outfit. It's funded by the Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation, a prominent neo-conservative organization; the John M. Olin Foundation, established by a wealthy manufacturer who made his fortune largely in munitions, and the Smith Richardson Foundation -which, says Harries, 'supports a number of good causes around the place. The magazine's quarters, in a modern office building on 16th Street in Washington, are a far cry from the grubby cubicles one associates with political journals on the left (if there still are any). The floors are carpeted and the phones ring with a muted chirp. The elevator has piped-in Mozart instead of Muzak. Directly across the street, behind a high wrought-iron fence, is the Russian Embassy. The National Interest, now four years old, is the creation of Irving Kristol - listed on the masthead as its publisher. His desk at the magazine is sort of in the lobby area; but then, he occupies many desks. Apart from his two magazines (he's also publisher of The Public Interest), Kristol is a distinguished fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Last year, he gave up his professorship at New York University and moved to Washington. New York was no longer the nation's intellectual center, he wrote in The New Republic a few months later, explaining his decision. The intellectuals had disappeared into the universities. The culture of Washington was just as ' 'nasty and brutish,' in Kristol's Hobbesian view, as anywhere else. ''But there is one area in which Washington is an intellectual center, and that is public policy: economic policy, social policy, foreign policy, today even educational policy.' Living in Washington doesn't make Kristol any less a New Yorker. The cigarette, the rumpled seersucker jacket, the shrewdly self-deprecating wit are more congenial to a seminar room at the City University of New York's graduate center on 42d Street than to a Washington think tank. Why did ''The End of History?'' make news? ''I'd like to think it's because my coming to Washington LEXIS® NEXIS® LEXIS® ® NEXIS® Services of Mead Data Central PAGE 12 (c) 1989 The New York Times, October 22, 1989 from New York has raised the level of discussion,' Kristol says with a laugh. And Fukuyama's thesis? ''I don't believe a word of it. Neither did a lot of other prominent opinion-makers around town. ''At last, self-congratulation raised to the status of philosophy!'' sneered Christopher Hitchens, a Washington-based Englishman who writes a column for The Nation. ''The Bush years have found their Burke, or their Pangloss. For Strobe Talbott, editor at large for Time magazine, ''The End of History?'' was ' 'The Beginning of Nonsense. If it wasn't nonsense, Fukuyama's basic thesis wasn't exactly news, either. For months, conservatives had been gloating over the demise of Communism. ''The perennial question that has preoccupied every political philosopher since Plato -what is the best form of governance? - has been answered,' wrote Charles Krauthammer in The Washington Post last March, before anyone had ever heard of Francis Fukuyama. ''After a few millennia of trying every form of political system, we close this millennium with the sure knowledge that in liberal, pluralist, capitalist democracy we have found what we have been looking for. Essentially, that was Fukuyama's message, but it didn't draw swarms of reporters to Krauthammer's door. So how did ''The End of History?'' become such a big event? It was the Hegel spin that did it. Not only is America winning, Fukuyama claimed, but the flourishing of democracy around the world is the fulfillment of a grand historical scheme. The end of the cold war and the disarray of the Soviet Union reflected a larger process -the realization of the Idea. History, Hegel believed (or Fukuyama says he believed), 'culminated in an absolute moment - a moment in which a final, rational form of society and state became victorious. And that moment, it just so happens, is now. A weird thesis, utterly speculative and impossible to prove. But ''The End of History?'' was a stylish performance, erudite and written with a rhetorical flair rare in the somber prose of Washington policy journals; it possessed intellectual authority. Fukuyama's respondents greeted the piece with open arms. ''I am delighted to welcome G.W.F. Hegel to Washington, declared Kristol. Senator Moynihan, himself a Harvard government professor before he discovered politics, confessed that his grasp of Hegel was shaky; but he dusted off his European history, tossing in a few references to Marx and Rousseau. ''It is not often that one has the opportunity to argue about Hegel in The National Interest (or anywhere else, for that matter), noted the historian Gertrude Himmelfarb, who is the wife of Irving Kristol. Soon after the article appeared, there was a conference held to discuss it at something called the United States Institute of Peace. Kristol, Himmelfarb and Krauthammer were in attendance, along with the Sovietologist Richard Pipes. The rest is history? IT'S NOT HARD TO SEE why Fukuyama's essay won favor among this community. It's not only the high-flown references to Kant and Hegel, not only the message that Western democracy beat out the competition. ''The End of History?'' has a polemical edge familiar to readers of ''The Closing of the American Mind. Like Bloom, Fukuyama doesn't have much patience for non-Western cultures. For our purposes, he writes, ''it matters very little what strange thoughts occur to people in Albania or Burkina Faso. And like Bloom, Fukuyama's no LEXIS® NEXIS LEXIS® ® NEXIS Services of Mead Data Central PAGE 13 (c) 1989 The New York Times, October 22, 1989 booster. The West isn't so hot either. At the heart of his critique is a veiled contempt for the very culture whose triumphs in the political sphere it purports to celebrate. What distinguishes Fukuyama from the crowd of conservative pundits elated by Gorbachey's troubles is his curled-lip attitude toward the victorious party. Say the West has won, that fascism and Communism are dead, that no significant ideological challenges are on the horizon - then what? There's an ''emptiness at the core of liberalism, Fukuyama maintains. What does America have to offer? ''Liberal democracy in the political sphere combined with easy access to VCRs and stereos in the economic. The society Hegel envisioned at the end of history, a universal state in which the arts flourish and virtue reigns, is nowhere to be found. Instead we're stuck with a 'consumerist culture' purveying rock music and boutiques around the world. So the end of history may not be such a good thing after all. In fact, Fukuyama concludes, it will be ''a very sad time.' Why? Because the meaning of life lies in the causes that we fight for, and in the future there won't be any. 'The struggle for recognition, the willingness to risk one's life for a purely abstract goal, the worldwide ideological struggle that called forth daring, courage, imagination and idealism, will be replaced by economic calculation, the endless solving of technical problems, environmental concerns and the satisfaction of sophisticated consumer demands. Put plainly, we're heading for a time of 'boredom.' As a Washington cab driver said when I tried to explain why I was in town, 'Give me a break!' Does Fukuyama really believe all this? ''I guess I prefer not to answer that,' he said one afternoon, talking in his State Department office. 'Leave it ambiguous. All I can say is, if people can't take a joke That he meant to be provocative is obvious; but it's clear from his rational, erudite prose that he wasn't fooling around. As a political theorist, Fukuyama is more in the tradition of Bentham or Locke than of pop futurists like Alvin Toffler. ''All I meant by that last paragraph, he says, ''was that there's a tension in liberalism that won't go away. There are all kinds of reasons for being a liberal: the security and the material wealth it provides, the opportunity for spiritual and intellectual development. But it fails to address some fundamental questions. You know, what are the higher ends of man? Should we just be content with having secured the conditions for a good life, or should we be thinking about what the content of that good life is?'' IF LIBERALISM STILL has a few kinks to work out, Communism is finished, although 'there may be some isolated true believers left in places like Managua, Pyongyang or Cambridge, Massachusetts, writes Fukuyama with characteristic acerbity. In Cambridge, the contempt is mutual. Even in that citadel of 1960's subversion, there aren't too many Communists left, but there is an inordinately dense concentration of people around Harvard Square who know their Hegel, and the summer issue of The National Interest sold out there virtually overnight. By and large, the Cambridge intelligentsia is dubious about The End of History?' The distinguished Harvard government professor Judith N. Shklar didn't even have to read Fukuyama's piece in order to dismiss it as ''publicity.' Her colleague Daniel Bell, who did, pronounced it ' 'Hegel at third remove and wrong. LEXIS® NEXIS® LEXIS® NEXIS Services of Mead Data Central PAGE 14 (c) 1989 The New York Times, October 22, 1989 (Bell's classic book, ''The End of Ideology,' anticipated Fukuyama 30 years ago.) The historian Simon Schama, author of ''Citizens: A Chronicle of the French Revolution,'' is more tolerant. Himself an idiosyncratic practitioner of the genre, he found the piece ''spirited and lively, but wonders how Fukuyama could have failed to address the revival of religious fundamentalism or the conflicts that could arise out of nationalism. ''It's more of a theological document, don't you think, a work of prophecy,' he says. ''I mean, nobody really believes in the end of history.' It's not too hard to think of scenarios that would spoil Fukuyama's end of history. Who's to say what would happen in the Soviet Union if glasnost and perestroika collapse? What new dangers might a reunified Germany pose? Or a newly industrialized China? And what about the nuclear threat? That would put an end to things, the political scientist Pierre Hassner observed, ''in a more radical sense than he envisages.' Gertrude Himmelfarb's response in The National Interest was perhaps the most damaging refutation of all. To begin with, Hegel never said that history would end in a literal sense; it's a continuous process in which ''the synthesis of the preceding stage is the thesis of the present, thus setting in motion an endless dialectical cycle - - and thus preserving the drama of history. And what about black poverty, the poverty of the underclass? asked Himmelfarb. In southeast Washington, where young blacks are dying nightly in the front lines of the drug war, history doesn't seem over; it seems to be just beginning. As Irving Kristol tartly put it, ''We may have won the cold war, which is nice - it's more than nice, it's wonderful. But this means that now the enemy is us, not them. Liberals complained that Fukuyama ignored the third world. Conservatives weren't too enthusiastic about his dour assessment of the winning team. Where is it written that government should provide for the spiritual needs of its citizens? Michael Novak wondered in Commentary. Democracy promises freedom from tyranny; it doesn't promise to make us happy. ' ' The construction of a social order that achieves these is not designed to fill the soul, or to teach a philosophy, or to give instruction in how to live,' Novak wrote. Democracy isn't a required course; it's an elective. ANUMBER OF COMMENTATORS have compared ''The End of History?'' to the famous article published by George F. Kennan in Foreign Affairs in July 1947 and signed with an anonymous "X." Kennan's essay warned of Moscow's expansionist tendencies and called for a policy of ''firm and vigilant containment, thus supplying the term that would come to characterize America's foreign policy in the postwar era. In an article in Policy Review last summer, ''Waiting for Mr. X,'' Burton Yale Pines, the magazine's associate publisher, called for an update. The cold war was over, Pines agreed; only what was the United States doing about it? How to deal with the turmoil Gorbachey's reforms have provoked? What should be our policy toward Eastern Europe? 'Needed, in essence, is another 'X' article, wrote Pines - an article that would encourage the United States to seize the initiative. Given this hunger for a sequel, it's not surprising that Fukuyama is being touted as our ''X.'' But is he? It's tempting to dismiss the whole thing as a media phenomenon. 'Each year needs a new sensation,' says Daniel Bell. ''It encapsulates a LEXIS® NEXIS® LEXIS® NEXIS® Services of Mead Data Central PAGE 15 (c) 1989 The New York Times, October 22, 1989 mood that people feel and gives it a vocabulary.' The practical consequences have been more difficult to measure. In the wake of Shevardnadze's visit, interpreters of foreign policy were busy scrutinizing speeches for evidence of endism. Did Fukuyama's article reflect President Bush's thinking? Was it a high-level policy paper in disguise? Senator Moynihan, for one, is skeptical. ''The minute you announce that the cold war has ended and history is over, he notes, ''a lot of people are going to say, 'Hey, wait a minute, we're out of a job. If only for bureaucratic purposes, then, history is still a going concern. As for the article's actual influence, 'there's no connection between this piece and what the Government does,' Kristol says flatly. 'No one in the Administration has read it.'' Everyone else has. Whether or not we've reached the end of history, we haven't reached the end of ''The End of History?'' The fall issue of The National Interest featured more 'responses, and you still can't pick up a magazine or a newspaper without stumbling across some reference to Fukuyama. ' ' I don't see much of a future for liberal democracy here in Peru's Shining Path country, but people would be pretty excited about VCRs if they only had electricity,' the journalist Tina Rosenberg reported with laconic irony in The New Republic, writing from Baja Collana, Peru. ''But that's just one of those technological problems Francis Fukuyama says we'll have to spend our time grappling with now that there are no more ideological conflicts to keep us busy.'' In a way, though, the question mark in Fukuyama's title has pre-empted criticism. History, after all, is only a way of making sense of things. Human beings depend on narrative to create an illusion of order, the literary critic Frank Kermode has argued in his profound book, ''The Sense of an Ending. ''To make sense of their span they need fictive concords with origins and ends, such as give meaning to lives and to poems.' ' 'The End of History?'' is a poem. (No wonder no one in the Administration has read it.) Even if we have come to the end of history, that may not be the end of it. As the historian Jerry Z. Muller observed, writing in Commentary last December, ' ' After late capitalism comes more capitalism. And after the end of history comes more history. THOUGHTS FROM 'THE END' The passing of Marxism-Leninism, first from China and then from the Soviet Union, will mean its death as a living ideology of world historical significance. For while there may be some isolated true believers left in places like Managua, Pyongyang, or Cambridge, Massachusetts, the fact that there is not a single large state in which it is a going concern undermines completely its pretensions to being in the vanguard of human history. And the death of this ideology means the growing ' ' Common Marketization'' of international relations, and the diminution of the likelihood of large-scale conflict between states. This does not by any means imply the end of international conflict per se. For the world at that point would be divided between a part that was historical and a part that was post-historical. Conflict between states still in history, and between those states and those at the end of history, would still be possible. There would still be a high and perhaps rising level of ethnic and nationalist violence, since those are impulses incompletely played out, even LEXIS® NEXIS® LEXIS® NEXIS® Services of Mead Data Central PAGE 16 (c) 1989 The New York Times, October 22, 1989 in parts of the post-historical world. Palestinians and Kurds, Sikhs and Tamils, Irish Catholics and Walloons, Armenians and Azeris, will continue to have their unresolved grievances. This implies that terrorism and wars of national liberation will continue to be an important item on the international agenda. But large-scale conflict must involve large states still caught in the grip of history, and they are what appear to be passing from the scene. The end of history will be a very sad time. The struggle for recognition, the willingness to risk one's life for a purely abstract goal, the worldwide ideological struggle that called forth daring, courage, imagination and idealism, will be replaced by economic calculation, the endless solving of technical problems, environmental concerns and the satisfaction of sophisticated consumer demands. In the post-historical period there will be neither art nor philosophy, just the perpetual caretaking of the museum of human history. I can feel in myself, and see in others around me, a powerful nostalgia for the time when history existed. Such nostalgia, in fact, will continue to fuel competition and conflict even in the post-historical world for some time to come. Even though I recognize its inevitability, I have the most ambivalent feelings for the civilization that has been created in Europe since 1945, with its North Atlantic and Asian offshoots. Perhaps this very prospect of centuries of boredom at the end of history will serve to get history started once again. (From ''The End of History?'' By Francis Fukuyama, The National Interest, No. 16, Summer 1989.) GRAPHIC: Francis Fukuyama wrote 'The End of History?'' (Dan Borris/Outline) (pg. 38); Irving Kristol (Bruce Hoertel/Gamma-Liaison) (pg. 42) SUBJECT: INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS; COMMUNISM (THEORY AND PHILOSOPHY) NAME: FUKUYAMA, FRANCIS LEXIS® NEXIS® LEXIS® NEXIS® ® Services of Mead Data Central PAGE 17 24TH STORY of Level 1 printed in FULL format. Copyright (c) 1989 The Washington Post October 13, 1989, Friday, Final Edition SECTION: EDITORIAL; PAGE A19 LENGTH: 889 words HEADLINE: Holding On To Brezhnev's Empire BYLINE: Charles Krauthammer BODY: The Soviet Empire is collapsing in the most paradoxical way: the inner empire is rapidly falling apart, while the external empire is managing to hold together. That's not the way things are supposed to happen. That certainly is not the way it had been predicted, say, a year ago when it seemed that the Soviets were being pushed out of their newer colonies of Afghanistan, Cambodia, Angola and Ethiopia. The collapse of the East European inner empire is proceeding at an astonishing pace. Poland is actively decommunizing under Solidarity. (Though Solidarity may have rushed history a bit by agreeing to act as bill collector for 40 years of Communist misrule.) And Hungary's Communists have molted into what they say is a traditional, albeit left-wing, social democratic party. East Germany, however, presents the Soviets with the most insoluble imperial dilemma. Hungary or Poland can exist without communism. East Germany cannot. It is not a country but a creation. It exists solely so that one group of Germans may experience the joys of a workers' state. Take that away, and the state ceases to have a reason for existence. Which is why reform in East Germany is almost a contradiction of terms. Perestroika will not solve East Germany's problems. It will make them terminal. We are speaking here, of course, just of Warsaw Pact allies. Gorbachev has to worry even more about the centrifugal forces at work in Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, the Ukraine and the Soviet Moslem republics. Which makes for the oddity: while the Soviet inner empire, the crown jewel of its postwar conquests, spins out of control, the external Third World empire remains intact: Afghanistan. The puppet government of Najibullah (like Cher and Charlemagne, he goes by one name) has survived far longer than anyone thought possible when Soviet soldiers pulled out in February. Cambodia. As Vietnam withdraws, its puppet (Hun Sen) is gathering grudging support, even in the West, as perhaps the only realistic alternative to Pol Pot and the Khmer Rouge. Angola. Jonas Savimbi, trying to topple the Soviet client regime, is on the defensive and having increasing difficulty getting supplies. LEXIS® NEXIS® LEXIS® NEXIS® Services of Mead Data Central PAGE 18 (c) 1989 The Washington Post, October 13, 1989 Nicaragua. The contras get ready to test Miami's housing market. The Sandinista regime is as secure as at any time in its 10-year history. Ethiopia. This may be the exception. Mengistu's regime is retreating in the face of advances by Tigray and Eritrean secessionists. But even this would not be quite the loss it seems, because both the Tigrayans and the Eritreans are led by Communists. What is going on? It is not an accident, comrade, that Gorbachev is holding on to these colonies. Contrary to expectations, he did not write them off when he began withdrawing Soviet (and proxy Cuban and Vietnamese) troops and calling for negotiation rather than confrontation. He is instead trying to do what Nixon tried to do in South Vietnam: sustain, with huge amounts of aid, a client regime after the metropolitan support troops have gone home. The U.S. Congress cut short that experiment in proxy power in 1975. The Soviet parliament is unlikely to follow suit. The size of Gorbachev's continued investment in the colonies is breathtaking. Afghanistan is getting a quarter of a billion dollars a month in military supplies from a Soviet economy that is self-advertised as bankrupt. Cambodian aid has apparently doubled in the last year to about half a billion dollars a year. Aid to Angola holds steady at a cool $ 1 billion a year. And the Sandinistas are getting their usual half a billion, albeit, now in the age of perestroika, laundered through Eastern Europe and Cuba. Which raises the question: Why, at a time when soap, salt and sugar are rationed even in Moscow, is Gorbachev investing at least $ 5 billion a year to maintain Brezhnev's empire? Because empires, even those cobbled together absent-mindedly, do not voluntarily dissolve themselves. As they shed their ideology, the Soviets are reverting to the natural condition of a great power: trying to maintain power where they have it and extend it where they don't. To assume otherwise is to assume that they have not only overthrown Communist ideology but reversed human nature. Great powers do not voluntarily abjure power. Small countries, like Canada or Finland, living in the protective shadow of great powers, sometimes do. But great powers, unless utterly defeated in war, like Germany and Japan, do not. About Eastern Europe, Gorbachev can do little. The growth of civil society has reached the point at which its challenge to the Soviet-imposed state cannot be resisted. Gorbachev has few tools to arrest the dissolution of the inner empire. Accordingly, his strategy is to finesse the crisis by trying to Finlandize states that he can no longer control. In the external empire, on the other hand, the anticolonial battle is more primitive: tanks and guns can still decide the issue. And tanks and guns are a Soviet specialty. Gorbachev will use them to try to hang on to what he can. Gorbachev is not a decolonizer. He is a realist. He will decolonize only where he must. The external empire can still be held together militarily. The internal empire cannot. Where he still retains the means to resist, he shows every willingness of doing so. LEXIS® NEXIS® LEXIS® NEXIS® Services of Mead Data Central PAGE 19 (c) 1989 The Washington Post, October 13, 1989 TYPE: OPINION EDITORIAL SUBJECT: U.S.S.R.; EASTERN EUROPE / SOVIET BLOC; COMMUNISM; INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS; RIOTS LEXIS® NEXIS® LEXIS® ® NEXIS® ® Services of Mead Data Central PAGE 20 30TH STORY of Level 1 printed in FULL format. Copyright (c) 1989 Newsweek October 2, 1989, UNITED STATES EDITION SECTION: THE COLUMNISTS; Meg Greenfield; Pg. 80 LENGTH: 1048 words HEADLINE: Needed: A New Compass BYLINE: MEG GREENF IELD HIGHLIGHT: We can no longer put our minds on automatic in thinking about these things. It's a damned outrage. BODY: These days when I open my paper I am put in mind of that old man in the cartoons who walks around with a sign saying, "Repent, the end is nigh." For the end, we are told, of practically everything is nigh: history, liberalism, ideology, the cold war. I suspect that all these entities actually have a little more life in them and that what's happening is something different. What we are confronting is the destruction of many of our premises and expectations about all of the above. Our pat arguments don't work anymore. We can no longer put our minds on automatic. It is, of course, a damned outrage, as this means we all have to start thinking again. Nowhere is this more apparent than in our internal conflicts over foreign policy. For years is seemed enough to many people to take their foreign-policy compass reading from what the other side in the domestic argument said; whatever it was, they took the opposite stand and were confirmed in their judgment by the looniness of the forces rallied against them. Thus, a lot of conservatives did not much credit either complexity or constructive change in communist countries. Evidence of either was dismissed as a trick or a fantasy of the liberal goo-goos, and they could continue to pursue 1951-type approaches to 1980s-style governments in Eastern Europe. This was enough for their liberal counterparts, who found in these absurd rigidities of the right-wingers justification for their own brand of non-sense -- namely, the notion that it was benighted to look upon those governments as oppressive ("mindless anticommunism" was their phrase); they habitually put the word "threat" in quotes when it followed the word "communist." These were two groups of people so busily and happily fighting each other here at home that for a while they seemed almost not to notice when the objects of their argument abroad managed to mortally undermine both their positions. For only the most paranoid an dimwitted of right-wing observers would any longer deny the reality of enormous change for the better in large parts of the communist world. And only the lunatic left could refuse to see in the reforms and uprisings and remarkable confessions, exposes and commentary coming from the East evidence that the repression has been much more onerous and diabolical than liberal discourse often implied. If only the changes in the Soviet-bloc world had been clean, clear and totally transforming it would have been easy, but they have not been. We are LEXIS® NEXIS® LEXIS® NEXIS® Services of Mead Data Central PAGE 21 (c) 1989 Newsweek, October 2, 1989 faced with an uneven, uncertain and only partially changed situation, one that could, at least in some measure, revert to the old status quo. Therefore across the whole American political spectrum those who would participate in the policy response have been forced to think, to weigh, to choose. What do we want, anyway, from and for the communist countries? What was and is the nature of their threat to us? Does the definition of our interest begin and end with protecting ourselves against aggression? Or dose it also include attempting to preserve and actually extended democratic values? Do we give a hoot what kind of domestic political lives other countries laid? If Third World disputes were not overlaid with East-West meaning, would we care how they came out? Would we be concerned only as our economic interests were affected? Outside the cold-war context, does any of the currently burgeoning ethnic mayhem around the world matter to us, warfare between peoples with exotic names who have been trying to annihilate each other for centuries and whom most of us probably never even heard of until the 6 o'clock news tonight? Many questions: All of these questions are being wrangled in the current political debate over what to do about Eastern Europe. There are ironies and oversimplifyings. The self-evident truth that the Soviet military is exceedingly strong and still being stoked by the Gorbachev leadership is invoked as a way of answering more questions than it actually does. To point to their military might and continuing military ambitions answers the question as to whether this country needs to maintain its own military strength, but it does not tell you how to capitalize on the genuine political changes that are occurring in the Soviet Union. To say that Poland and Hungary, now at the cutting edge of democratic reform, could yet revert to the old dispensation does not tell you what steps we should take to try to encourage them the other way. And to say simply "more money, more money" for the countries struggling to shed their repressive systems does not really address the tougher issues of whether their reforms are solid enough to justify the investment and whether a huge injection of money might not in effect harm reform by enabling the recipients to avoid the painful steps they must take to restructure their economies. These, in other words, are no yes-no, black-white, am too-are not questions. They are questions of proportion and degree and as such require through, calculation, trade-off. But there is an even more taxing order of questions that have arisen in the wake of the change in Eastern Europe than those concerned with policy and program responses to what is going on. These are the big, blowzy but critical questions of our basic purpose. They have always lurked, unresolved, in our acrimonious debates about human rights, authoritarians versus totalitarians, whose dictators --- those of the left or the right ---- are worse, and what if any our interest may be in the various places in which we intervene around the world. Some on the same side of the debate over intervention were always arguing from different values - American strategic interest, for instance, and American missionary democracy. Are we out there to do good or merely to do in anyone who threatens our well-being? Charles Krauthammer has wisely written about the way these arguments are playing out within the American conservative complex. The conservatives aren't the only ones affected. The cold war may or may not be over. What is clearly over is the intellectually easy cold-war period in which there seemed to be only two sides in the world and only two ways of thinking about their relationship here at home. LEXIS® NEXIS® LEXIS® NEXIS