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Originally Processed With FOIA(s): FOIA Number: S FOIA MARKER This is not a textual record. This is used as an administrative marker by the George Bush Presidential Library Staff. Record Group/Collection: George H.W. Bush Presidential Records Collection/Office of Origin: Speechwriting, White House Office of Series: Davis, Mark, Files Subseries: Subject File, 1989-1991 OA/ID Number: 13870 Folder ID Number: 13870-012 Folder Title: Foreign Policy-Soviets, 1989-1990 Stack: Row: Section: Shelf: Position: G 19 2 6 3 Debts Paid, Romania Says Ceausescu Announces Austerity S Result By A. D. Horne rationed, and in many localities Washington Post Foreign Service even thèse are unavailable. Meat is a rarity; soup bones only occasion- Romanian leader Nicolae ally appear in stores. Decades of Ceausescu announced this week financial misplanning and inefficient that his country, despite an econ- industrial development have led to omy that a recent U.S. congression- the dire condition of the Romanian al report called the second poorest economy, making it the poorest in in Europe, has paid off all of its for- Europe after Albania.' eign debts ahead of schedule. Ceausescu made his announce- The costs of this accelerated re- ment on Wednesday to a Communist Photo copy Preservation payment program have been mas- Party Central Committee meeting in sive. In a recent report on Roman- Bucharest, the Romanian news agen- ian. human rights violations, con- cy Agerpres reported. Ceausescu gressional Helsinki Commission rules Romania both as president and chairmen Rep. Steny H. Hoyer (D- as the party's general secretary; his Md.) and Sen. Dennis DeConcini wife, Elena, is deputy premier; a son, (D-Ariz.) wrote: Nicu, is a regional. party secretary, "Fuel and electricity have been and a younger brother, Ilie, is deputy rationed for years. Staple foods, defense minister. including milk, bread and flour, are See ROMANIA, A24, Col. 1 Komanian Austerity Ends Foreign Debt ROMANIA, From A21 MILES concerns. We have lost the Amer- POLAND CZECH. 0 200 ican clause for trade," they wrote, According to Agerpres, Ceausescu SOVIET UNION "and a result some of our textile announced that "at the end of March AUST factories have no orders." Romania fully paid back its foreign HUNGARY The ex-officials' letter deplored debt. This is the outstanding result ROMANIA of our people's work," he said, and it Brasov Romania's international isolation, Bucharest noting that Norway, Denmark- and proves the might of the Romanian Portugal have closed their embassies socialist economy. YUGOSLAVIA Black in Bucharest that the European Spokesmen for international fi- BULGARIA Sea Community #is unwilling to extend nancial institutions confirmed that Adriatic its trade agreement with Romania," Romania has completed paying back Sea and that 'all the leaders of the non- its World Bank and International ITALY ALB, communist nations of Europe refuse Monetary Fund loans as well as vir- TURKEY GREECE to meet with" Ceausescu. tually all of its commercial bank BY CLARICE BORIO-THE WASHINGTON POST The six former officials also ap- debts ahead of schedule. But Radio pealed to Ceausescu to halt the de- Free Europe quoted financial struction of Romanian-villages, which sources as saying that Romania still exempt itself from the human rights they called unconstitutional. "Why owes about $1.5 billion to govern- provisions of the final agreement urbanize villages," their letter asked, ments and international institutions. signed by a 35-nation Vienna con- "when you cannot ensure decent con- Under Ceausescu's one-man rule, ference reviewing the 1975 Hel- ditions of urban life in the cities, Romania halted all foreign borrow- sinki accords." And in February namely heating, lighting, transpor- ing in 1981; when its international 1988, Ceausescu, angry over in- tation, not to mention food?" debt stood at about $10.5 billion. By creasingly close U.S. congressional When the letter became public restricting imports, exporting food scrutiny of Romania's human rights last month, Ceausescu's response and rationing food and fuel, record, unilaterally renounced his was to arrest one signer's stepson Ceausescu has been able to accu- nation's most-favored-nation trad as an agent of a foreign espionage mulate foreign exchange funds to ing status before Congress could service This month West Ger- repay debts ahead of schedule. act to revoke it. many recalled its ambassador after At the same time, Ceausescu has According to Agerpres, however, he was prevented from taking a launched vast redevelopment pro- Ceausescu now has raised the most- message from Foreign Minister grams in which historic sections of favored-nation issue for the first Hans Dietrich Genscher to another Bucharest and other cities have time since last year's renunciation of the letter's signers, former for- been razed and their residents In meetings on Tuesday and Wed- eign minister Cornel Manescu. evicted on short notice to make way nesday with a group of U.S. busi- Since November 1987, when for broad avenues and planned new nessmen visiting Bucharest, the workers in the city of Brasov de- apartment buildings. official news agency said, the Ro- monstrated against a plan to cut Ceausescu declared last year that manian president called most- their pay if their factories failed to this "modernization" program would favored-nation status the "only meet production targets, there has extend to the countryside, eliminat- problem awaiting an appropriate been little open dissent in Romania. ing half of Romania's 13,000 villages solution." Without most-favored-na- The State Department's latest and moving their residents to new tion status, some Romanian exports annual human rights report noted agro-industrial centers. The plan to the United States are subject to that free speech is "severely restrict- has prompted international protests, prohibitively high tariffs. ed," that "all citizens are required to culminating in last month's vote by In an open letter to Ceausescu have residence permits and may not the U.N. Human Rights Commission this winter, six former officials, in- legally move from one town to an- to appoint a special investigator. cluding two ex-members of the par- other and that "serial numbers and Romania has rejected the U.N. ty Politburo, a former foreign min- typeface samples of all typewriters investigation as "brutal interfer- ister and a former ambassador to must be registered with the author- ence" in its affairs, In a similar Washington, listed the loss of most- ities, and the use of duplicating ma- move in January, Romania sought to favored-nation status among their chines is strictly regulated." THE SUMMIT AMERICA ABROAD Strobe Talbott THE FEAR OF WEIMAR RUSSIA MOSCOW Eastern Europe. Now it looked as though Soviet power might T he most contentious issue of this week's summit may be humiliated even within the borders of the U.S.S.R. Marshal also be the most important foreign policy challenge fac- Sergei Akhromeyev, Gorbachev's personal military adviser, ing the U.S. in the '90s: how to keep the peace in Eu- bluntly said that no setback would be more galling than "see- rope now that the cold war is over. George Bush not only ing our East German allies defect to NATO.' Yevgeni Prima- wants to preserve NATO, with a united Germany as a full kov, one of Gorbachev's closest associates on the Presidential member and U.S. troops on its soil; he also wants the Soviet Council, agreed in a conversation a few weeks ago: "A united Union to like the idea. In his TIME interview, Mikhail Gorba- Germany in NATO is something we just can't swallow." chev dismissed as "not serious" (a scathing put-down in the A high Foreign Ministry official explains why. "Having lexicon of Soviet diplomacy) the notion that a strengthened East Germany leave the Warsaw Pact-that's one thing. It NATO will replace a disintegrating Warsaw Pact as the guaran- means we've lost the cold war. Okay. We can accept that, al- tor of the U.S.S.R.'s security. though it's not so easy. But Gorbachev was rebutting having our enemies of the '40s, an argument that American ALAIN LIAISON the Germans, join our enemies officials dare not make in pub- of the '50s, '60s and '70s in an lic and are circumspect about alliance whose whole reason making even in private. Their for being is anti-Soviet-that winks and nods, euphemisms makes us feel as though we lost and disclaimers can be trans- World War II." lated into one stark sentence Then comes a telling refer- that summarizes the only truly ence, frequently echoed in strategic thought the U.S. Moscow, to the aftermath of Government has about the World War I: "The U.S. and 21st century: a Germany "an- the West must not rub our chored" in NATO is less likely noses too much in our defeat; to cause trouble than one that it must not impose on us at the is neutral and nonaligned. end of the 20th century a ver- Note the verb, with its meta- sion of the Treaty of Versailles phorical suggestion not only of that caused SO much trouble at safety from rough seas but also the beginning. We don't want of a heavy chain and benevo- to feel like Weimar Germany. lent captivity. And you shouldn't want us to." Even in their most confi- Not even in private will a patri- dential communications with West Germany's Genscher and the U.S.S.R.'s Shevardnadze otic Soviet finish that thought: the Kremlin, U.S. policymak- discussing the role of a new Germany in a new Europe the Weimar Republic gave way ers and diplomats have been to Hitler's Third Reich. Yet careful not to make this pitch too explicit. They are afraid the that is what some Soviets seem to have in mind. They fear not KGB may make mischief between Washington and Bonn by only the worst from Germany's past but also something just as leaking any cable or memorandum that reveals Americans to bad that may lurk in their own future. These twin dreads inter- be exploiting Soviet anxiety about Germany. There is nothing act powerfully, if not quite logically. As Gorbachev at least tac- cryptic about the apprehension of the British, French, itly acknowledges, in his country rationality is as scarce as soap Czechoslovaks and Poles as they watch the juggernaut of Ger- these days. The outside world is a mirror into which Soviets man unification. The Bush Administration keeps hoping the look and wince. Kremlin will therefore not object too strenuously as the U.S. What can they do to stop the U.S. from ramming its own helps sponsor the emergence of a new Germany at the center answer to the German question down their throats? "Noth- of a new NATO. ing," admits a close Gorbachev adviser. "But the outcome will At the beginning of the year, the Administration was influence our approach on many other matters. If the old Ger- counting on the summit to help advance its German policy. man Democratic Republic joins NATO, the Soviet military will The meeting, predicted one presidential adviser, was going to be harder for all of us, including Gorbachev, to deal with on a be "Christmas in spring," with Bush in the role of Santa Claus. variety of other issues." That presumably refers to the many is- Gorbachev would go home in triumph, laden with SO many sues of nuclear and conventional arms control that will not be honors and agreements that his countrymen would barely no- resolved at the summit this week. tice he had let the U.S. have its way on Germany. Washington's response is predictable: Oh, that's just Gor- Then the Lithuanian crisis complicated the work of Santa's bachev letting his marshals and generals play the bad cops. helpers in Washington and steeled resistance in Moscow. The But George Bush may find that on this subject there are no top brass of the military was already upset about "losing" good cops in the Soviet Union. 36 TIME, JUNE 4, 1990 WE MADE CLOSE COMFORTABLE. Norelco's patented "Lift and Cut™™ shaving system gives you a shave that is skin close-without the blades even touching your skin. As the hair enters the chamber The system lifts each hair A split second before a blade cuts it. The continuous precision- cutting action of dozens of lifters and self-sharpening blades-at thousands of revolutions per minute- gives you a shave like none other. The Norelco® Lift and Cut shaver. What makes it close, makes it comfortable. ONoreico® ® 600RX AND CUT AND CUT 95ORX © 1989 Norelco Consumer Products Company, CINOREICO A Division of North American Philips Corporation, Stamford, CT 06904 UNoreico Geneva, July 18-23, 1955. Soviet Chairman of the Council of Ministers Nikolai Bulganin, British Prime Minister Anthony Eden, President Dwight Eisenhower, and French Premier Edgar Faure. Issues: 1) German reunification. 2) Withdrawal of U.S. and Soviet troops from Europe. 3) Nuclear and conventional disarmament. 4) An "Open Skies" proposal by the U.S. to allow spy flights over the U.S. and the Soviet Union. Camp David, Maryland, September 25-27, 1959. Dwight Eisenhower and Soviet Communist Party First Secretary Nikita Khrushchev. Issues: 1) The status of Berlin. 2) A future "Big Four" summit of Britain, France, the Soviet Union, and the United States to discuss lowering tensions in East-West relations. Paris, May 16-17, 1960. French President Charles de Gaulle, Dwight Eisenhower, Nikita Khrushchev, and British Prime Minister Harold MacMillan. Issue: Intended as a discussion of ways to reduce East-West ten- sions, the conference broke up when Khrushchev walked out after Eisenhower refused to "apologize" for sending a U-2 spy plane into Soviet airspace. It had been shot down by the Soviets on May 1, 1960. Vienna, June 3-4, 1961. President John Kennedy and Nikita Khrushchev. Issue: The status of Berlin. Glassboro, New Jersey, June 23-25, 1967. President Lyndon Johnson and Soviet Chairman of the Council of Ministers Aleksei Kosygin. Issues: 1) The Arab-Israeli conflict. 2) Soviet support for the communist insurgency in South Vietnam. 4 THE ROAD TO WASHINGTON The road to the Washington summit of 1990 has been a long one. The Bush-Gorbachev meeting in Washington is the nineteenth since President Franklin Roosevelt, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill, and Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin first met in 1943 to chart the post-World War II international order. The milestones of U.S.-Soviet summits over the past 47 years are: Tehran, November 28 - December 1, 1943. Winston Churchill, Franklin Roosevelt, and Joseph Stalin. Issues: 1) Agreement on the invasion of Nazi-occupied France by Britain, Canada, and the U.S. The date was set for May 1944 and later moved to June 1944. 2) The post-war Polish-German and Soviet-Polish bor- ders. Yalta, February 4-11, 1945. Winston Churchill, Franklin Roosevelt, and Joseph Stalin. Issues: 1) Allied administration of a defeated Germany, includ- ing zones of occupation. 2) Agreement on Poland's new eastern borders. 3) The "Declaration on Liberated Europe," which called for free elections in Eastern Europe. 4) The Soviet Union's entry into the war against Japan ninety days after Germany's surrender. 5) Creation of the United Nations. Potsdam, Germany, July 17 - August 2, 1945. Winston Churchill, President Harry Truman and Joseph Stalin (Midway through the summit, Churchill was replaced by Clement Atlee, the Labor leader who defeated Churchill in the July 25, 1945, British elections). Issues: 1) The administration of occupation zones in Germany. 2) A new German-Polish border. 3) German war reparations. 4) The surrender ultimatum to Japan. 5) Forms of government in Eastern Europe. 3 Gelb account If Winston Churchill had not already called Russia a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma, many Soviets might be tempted today to use the phrase to describe their view of the United States. In any event, they are striving mightily to penetrate this veil of mystery to learn how America works. This is a remarkable turn-around from the days when Soviet officials claimed to know exactly how we operated -- the ruling circles and the military-industrial complex squeezed profits out of the hapless worker and that was that. Like a dead mackerel in the moonlight, they said, capitalism shines and stinks. While these canards are probably still quacking lustily over some parts of the Soviet Union, I did not hear them from a wide and diverse group of Soviet government and party officials, intellectuals and cultural figures that I met with on my recent trip. In fact, I heard the opposite. First, that America "works." It works in the economic sense -- the standard of living is high, the stores are filled with goods, there are no orchards in Central Park but somehow the millions of people who live and work in Manhattan get orange juice every morning. America also works in the political and social sense. One Soviet put it this way: There are things in America which you take for granted which are burning issues for us. You have lobbyists and powerful interest groups in your country and yet the voice of the people can always be heard. How do you do that? You have a constitution that has lasted more than two centuries with just a handful of amendments. We're working on our fourth constitution in 72 years. How do you do that? Second, although Soviets may always have had an abundance of facts and figures about us at their fingertips, they have not understood what makes it all hang together; they have not seen the soul in the American body politic. I have been impressed in my meetings, official and unofficial, here and in Moscow and in Tbilisi, with Soviet willingness, even eagerness, to do business with the United States. Whether the field is educational exchange, agriculture, the working of parliamentary commissions or the nuances of constitutional law -- almost no American proposal is rejected out of hand. Soviets are ready to talk, to discuss and very often to act in surprisingly open ways. Two threads run through all of the conversations and requests -- one is the need for information, the other is the need for "know-how." Like people after a drought, Soviets thirst for facts, data, figures -- for information -- about what is going on in the world around them. Soviets want to know how we do what we do. They ask for pamphlets, books, speakers, seminars, exhibits, satellite television programs, radio programs -- every possible means of communication -- to explain the basic mechanisms and values of American society and politics. Many of the most urgent calls are for assistance with "gut" issues -- food, housing, medicine. The Soviet Union has the same basic resources we do -- they have arable land, they have timber for houses, they have concrete factories without end, they have physicians and scientists the equal of any. But Soviets look at the end product and see in America a much higher standard of living -- better housing, a better and more varied diet, better and more sophisticated health care. Clearly, something different is going on. It is this "something different" that Soviets want to learn. These trends -- openness to discussion, desire for information, eagerness to learn -- are certainly positive. The sheer volume of such requests, the eloquence with which they are stated and the historical implications for Soviet society should not, however, deafen us to several troubling notes that sound throughout this dialogue. First, of course, is that we have no interest in helping Soviet authorities to merely modernize or streamline their control. Our interest is and can only be in honest, permanent, systemic change toward freedom, democracy and the rule of law. Second, the danger continues of equating information with understanding. The new, more accurate information ushered in by glasnost still does not guarantee understanding or respect for the American system, nor the variety of news and independence of thought that identifies a healthy society. I believe that many Soviets think that "how-to" information will somehow magically make their troubles go away. As we Americans know all too well, there is no magic wand. Americans have not had it "easy," and American history is not a smooth, uninterrupted procession of a nation from one triumph to another and to ever higher levels of prosperity for all. It is not enough for the people of the USSR to have the tools, they must also understand the spirit that animates the craftsman and the artist. Without asking or expecting the Soviets to abandon their values or traditions -- we must, nonetheless, ask and expect them to begin to foster and appreciate the values of individuality, freedom and entrepreneurship. In short -- the spirit of America is what they must grasp. We don't plan to sell them the legendary rope with which they will hang us and we have no magic wand to wave over their troubles and so dispel them -- what we can and are offering now is our hand. STRATEGIC REVIEW, Spring 1989 5-2-89 (Pre-publication copy) A "COMMON EUROPEAN HOUSE" - OR A NEW DESIGN FOR SOVIET HEGEMONY? SOL W. SANDERS THE AUTHOR: Sol Sanders was Senior Editor for Business Week from 1979 to 1986, following journalistic assignments that included coverage of the Vietnam war for U.S. News & World Report (1962-1970). His articles on a broad range of international and economic topics have appeared regularly in such publications as the Wall Street Journal and Christian Science Monitor. His book, Mexico: Chaos on Our Doorstep, was published by Madison Books in 1986. He is currently working on a book on the subject of Soviet economic dependence on the West. IN BRIEF A report-card on Mikhail Gorbacheu's reforms in the Soviet Union thus far reveals the them. Gorbachev has acquitted himself as a supreme tactician in the Lenin mold, but tactics alone enormity of the problems confronting the regime and the lack of headway being made against are not likely to bring about solutions nor to sustain him in power. Implicit in Gorbacheu's "new thinking" are the outlines of à larger strategy designed to secure for the Soviet Union the steady flow of technological "transfusions" imperative for a rescue of the system. The target of that strategy is Western Europe; it is to be achieved through a political-economic process in which the satellite nutions of Eastern and Central Europe are assigned a leading role. N oncommunist Western elites have and frustrated hope - trace a recurrent histor- deceived themselves about the funda- ical pattern, we have to look in all prudence mental nature of the Soviet regime, with consequences ranging from deleterious to to that history as an illuminant of the contem- disastrous, in at least. four historical periods: porary Soviet stage, or at least the parts of that stage visible to us. immediately after the Russian October Rev- olution, in the "Popular Front" phase of It may, indeed, be that we are witnessing an Stalin's foreign policy in the 1930s, during the entirely new departure in Soviet - and Russian Soviet Union's cobelligerency with the West in - history. Certainly spectacular, in some in- World War II, and in the detente of the 1970s.1 stances unprecedented, events are unfolding. Historical analogies are odious, we are told. A young, dynamic leadership has taken over Nevertheless, especially when experience - in Moscow. A new openness has taken hold of the Soviet media. Unprecedented criticism of SOL W. SANDERS 360 W. 36th Street-12th Fl. New York, NY 10018 Tel. (212) 714-9661 5/12/89 Mark 1 ph Our leteplone convernation - hope to see you to take one day soon - DAY-TIMERS RE-ORDER No. 26005 Soe - Printed in USA sa-2 the past has appeared.' Communist Party Chief Mikhail Gorbachev has acknowledged an eco- into a lumbering system, along with merely nomic crisis of well-righ catastrophic propor- tactical adaptations in the global Soviet offen- tions in the Soviet Union, and promised a sive?* Should we help Gorbachev? Indeed, how revolutionary approach to its resolution. He has might we do so, were that desirable? gone beyond the traditional denunciation of "class enemies" in identifying systemic stag- Framework for Analysis nation and pervasive public lethargy as the care of that crisis. Our speculation can be reduced basically to four categories: Foreigners have been welcomed in the Soviet Union as at no time since World War II, perhaps 1. Who is Gorbachev, and what can we deduce not since the period of Lenin's New Economic about his motivations? Given the still highly Policy (NEP) in the 1920s. Soviet spokesmen. centralized power structure in the USSR, the have admitted backwardness in political as well leadership personality factor remains a signifi- cant one. as economic sectors and invited Western cooper- ation in mutually beneficial programs to im- 2. What are Gorbachev's possibilities? That prove their benighted society. On the foreign is, after defining perestroika and glasnost in Soviet terms, what are the odds for success or policy front, Gorbachev not only has opened a failure of his reforms? new detente vis-a-vis the West, but dramatized it with a dazzling campaign of personal 3. Most important for the "help Gorbachev" diplomacy and unilateral concessions in dis- option, what is behind his "new thinking" armament that have been enthusiastically offensive vis-a-vis the West? Is it a desperate received by Western publics, particularly in cry for assistance in propping up a degenerating Western Europe. system? Is it a genuine retrenchment of Soviet global power and objectives in behest of "build. To many Western intellectuals, Gorbachev's ing socialism [however redefined from Stalin's drive for reforms and his "new thinking" in for- days] in one country"? Or does it reflect a eign policy beckon with the fulfillment of a hope that has endured virtually since the strategy designed to bridge the Soviet Union's Bolshevik takeover in 1917 - namely, that the weaknesses with its historic objectives in the world-at-large? system imposed by Lenin might at last be as- 4. Finally, if Gorbachev personally were to suming a "human face," and that its regime "fail," what would be the likely options for is shedding age-old revolutionary aims enroute to becoming a "responsible" member of the those who succeeded him in Soviet leadership? Failure, of course, would have to be defined in international community. For these observers, Soviet, not Western, terms. Hence we have com- and they range from historian-diplomat George pleted the circle back to the questions of the F. Kennan' to journalists like the economics leadership's motivations as well as Gorbachev's columnist Hobart Rowen of the Washington actions. Post,4 the message for the West is that it must "help" Gorbachev in his excrutiatingly difficult There is some prior "homework" that any such assessment requires. We need to invoke reform experiment. Not to do so, we are told, two basic sets of historical memories. The most could result in the failure of Gorbachev's "revo- obvious, perhaps, but the one most often lost lution from above" and a return to the Soviet system of tryanny at home and belligerence sight of in the optimism generated by present abroad. events, concerns the past nature of the Soviet If this is, indeed, an option for Western policy regime. John Dziak has perhaps put it best when he characterized the Soviet Union and its - and there is increasing pressure on U.S. leadership to adopt it - how do we go about regime as "the counter-intelligence state.' The assaying both its validity and prudence amid communists, building on Tsarist traditions, the avalanche of reports from the Soviet Union? have devoted more time, energy and resources Is the fundamental nature of the Soviet regime than any other regime in history to presenting really changing? Is history repeating itself: may a false reality to their own people and to the these not be like previous "reforms" which outside world. Glasnost notwithstanding, there turned out to be only adjustments in internal is little evidence that deception as an ingrained totalitarian controls and efforts to "shake life" method of rulership and its outward projection has been seriously eroded.* sa-3 That is not to consign everything that is said NEP undoubtedly saved the Soviet regime from or observed in Gorbachev's Soviet Union to con- early collapse." Then in the early 1930s, spiracy, disinformation or the "Potemkin Vil- American machine tools shipments - at times lage" syndrome, nor to minimize the genuine 75 per cent of U.S. exports - and engineers confusion in the wake of his reform drive. But were essential in helping Stalin build "social- we must never lose sight of the fact that Gor- ism in one country." German-Soviet economic bachev springs from the heart of the Soviet exchanges during the brief period of the Hitler- security apparatus, and as such expresses its Stalin Pact helped sustain the Soviets' "forced sophisticated view of the inadequacies of the march to industrialization." The $13 billion (a system at the same time that he defends its minimal estimate) of American Lend-Lease and basic premises. other wartime and postwar deliveries were crit- A second and admittedly more ambiguous ical to the rebuilding of the postwar USSR. The assignment of historical "homework" concerns boon of dismantled German industry, added to the Soviet system's economic relations with the the bounty from the now captive nations of West. Unless we view all new economic data Eastern Europe - particularly Czechoslovakia emanating from Moscow as disinformation, as a then world-class industrial power - played much of what has been assumed in the past a crucial role in Soviet economic growth in the concerning the Soviet economy must now be 1950s. And shipments of Western equipment reevaluated.' One clear implication is that con- during the detente of the 1970s helped the ventional wisdom has long underestimated the Soviets through another crisis, particularly in extent to which the Soviets have been econom- ground transport." ically dependent on the West - not only on im. Yet to come is the enormous task of winnow. ported Western technology, but Western trade" ing out much of the new information flowing and capital transfers." from Moscow." It seems certain to produce a Current data aside, empirical hindsight to the revisionist macroeconomic picture of the Soviet dismal record of Sovie attempts to graft their Union as important as the recent recasting of economic system onto other societies, many of past estimates concerning Soviet resources go- them more developed than had been Tsarist ing into the military.1* Russia, confirms that stagnation is endemic to the Soviet system.1 One can argue that the Soviet Union, ever since 1917, has limped Roots of the Crisis through cyclical economic crises which were The present Soviet economic crisis can thus obscured behind the high walls around the sys- be seen as only the latest in a series of crises, tem. Indeed, a strong case can be lodged for the albeit as the most complex and perhaps deepest proposition that the Soviet economy has sur- in that series. It is clear that arranging the vived thus far thanks largely to recurrent necessary Western transfers of resources is Gor- "transfusions" from the West. bachev's highest strategic priority, animating The effect of these "transfusions" has been much of what he says and does. These two underestimated in large part because Western guidelines - the continued play of Soviet tradi- observers have been beguiled by another part tional arts of deception, and the high priority of the "Potemkin Village" - in this case, given to desperately needed transfers from the Moscow's steady propaganda regarding the West - are the framework on which to hang autarchic nature of the Soviet economy. If Stalin an analysis of perestroika. contended that he was "building socialism in It may be, as British Prime Minister Mar- one country," if the sacrifices were enormous but garet Thatcher has contended, that "Gorbachev the results substantial, was one not to conclude is a man one can do business with." But that that the task had been mastered by the Soviets "business" could be meaningful only if the West alone? Furthermore, with no empirical evidence recognizes that we are not dealing with a except "cooked" Soviet: statistics," it was dif- Western-style reformer or one in the Russian ficult to gain a picture of the true magnitude religious tradition. There is no evidence in Gor- of the contributions of Western technology, trade bachev's background to suggest anything but and even finance to the system." the apotheosis of a Party aparatchik in the As Antony C. Sutton has demonstrated, the Brezhnev era which he so bitterly criticizes." "transfusion" of technology during Lenin's Nor is there any evidence to suggest that we sa-4 are dealing with that rare individual who has of living, increased corruption in every aspect experienced a "Saul-on-the-road-to-Damascus" of the society, and growing disparities and fric- conversion.20 "It cannot be entirely precluded tions among regional and ethnic populations. that he is a type of Soviet 'closet liberal,' at Especially since the Soviets have been so least in economics and foreign policy. Human history abounds in oddities, and Gorbachev's remarkably successful in masking defects and failures in the military, one can only speculate 'closet liberalism' could conceivably be one of about the extent to which the corrosives of pub- them" write two Soviet analysts. "[But] lic lethargy, corruption and other societal ills what we have seen 80 far is most probably what have seeped into the Soviet military-industrial we are likely to get in the future. Gorbachev machine itself, notwithstanding its privileged is a problem solver, a tenacious competitor and, status. What does seem clear is that this in the Soviet context, a pragmatist." military-industrial machine, with or without That "pragmatism" reflects the knowledge, those debilitations, confronts the daunting shared by perhaps a minority of the elite when challenge of what is acknowledged as a tech- he took power, that if the trends of the Brezh- nological "revolution in military affairs." Prob- nev years were to continue, certain catastrophe ably uppermost in that challenge, literally as lies ahead. For, despite whatever advances the well as figuratively, is the dimension of space Soviets managed in the "global correlation of warfare. James M. McConnell has made the forces" during the two Brezhnev decades, the persuasive, if circumstantial, case that the in- long-term outlook for the Soviet economy was ternal debate in Moscow that culminated in grim. Growth was declining. Hidden inflation Gorbachev's perestroika was triggered by Presi- was rising along with a runaway budget. The dent Reagan's Strategic Defense Initiative, technological gap with the West was widening. which directly confronted the men in the Krem- Food production and distribution were worsen- lin not only with a new round of technological ing. Moscow was forced to borrow in the West competition with the United States, but also to cover the growing Soviet balance-of- with a foreboding picture of the technological payments deficit. There was little to sell abroad demands on superpower into the Twenty-First except oil and gold, and both commodities were Century.** under international price-pressures. All of these and other factors account for an But the root of this crisis is deeper. it lies in unprecedented Party debate over "revolution- the growing failure of that very systemic ary" economic changes, probably the most anomaly that, paradoxically, had enabled the intense and fundamental since the 1920s. Soviet Union to ascend to superpower status in Perhaps it is precisely this parallel that the global arena. That structure is Moscow's prompts Gorbachev to speak often about a two-compartment economic system, in which return to "Leninist principles." Gorbachev has the bulk of resources has gone to the military, other motives for invoking the ghost of Lenin, while the civilian sector has been kept in per- including the obvious ritual imperative of manent austerity. Increasingly the Moscow conferring legitimacy on his regime. Yet, there planners have been finding cracks in the bulk. may be as well some more specific and personal head that was supposed to separate these two reasons why Gorbachev would want to identify economies in a Stalinist model. A telling with the founder of the Soviet state. More than example is in the degeneration of health facil- any of the other figures in the iconography of ities in the Soviet Union to a dangerous level, communism, Lenin symbolizes the risk-taker, with the consequence of lowered longevity for the gambler prepared to wager everything on men and rising infant mortality. Public health wresting and preserving power - the ultimate affects the entire manpower pool and thus tactician willing to execute 180-degree turns in breaks down the theoretical separation of the order to maintain the system and that power. military and civilian nectors, even in a totali- It is significant that Gorbachev has referred tarian society." More generally, over time it specifically to Lenin's advocacy of a separate becomes difficult, if not impossible, to insulate peace with Imperial Germany in World War I, the military establishment from rampant mal- which was opposed by virtually all the other aise in the civilian sector - from shortages in Bolshevik leaders, "because he was guided by consumer goods paralleling those in the worst vital, not immediate, interest, the interest of years after World War II, a plunging standard the working class as a whole, of the revolution, sa-5 and the future of socialism." And it was Lenin velopment, and ideological in the sense that the who, near death, sanctioned a swing away from what was later to be labeled, apologetically, huge state farms do not perform adequately and should be abandoned.' But even if Gor- "war communism" in reality, the application of utopian socialist concepts to what remained bachev wins the ideological battle, it is increas- of the Tsarist economy. ingly apparent that the rural population is far from eager to take up the cudgels for a self- supporting and risk-taking agriculture. Cultural Barriers to Success Increasingly Western observers believe that there is another cultural problem more difficult It has become almost a cliche to posit that the barriers to Gorbachev's perestroika are enor- of solution: the legacy of the incredible slaughter of Russian and Ukrainian peasantry - first mous. Some aspects of the problem would be during the Civil War of the 1920s, then in the difficult to delineate even in a Western context famines before and after Stalin's anti-kulak where detailed information is readily available campaign and forced collectivization, followed and where there in no deliberate disinfor- by the killings during the German invasion of mation. World War II and the guerrilla combat that ac- Not the least of these barriers springs from companied it. The demoralization of rural so- a Russian economic history which antedates ciety is nowhere more in evidence than in the the Soviet experiment - a history marked by black soil belt of Soviet Europe, where agricul- the dearth of an entrepreneurial tradition. tural productivity should be at its highest." Capitalism came to Russia - if, indeed, it came There are myriad additional cultural factors at all in its West European forms - very late equally difficult to quantify. Thus, for exam- and under the dominance of foreign merchants ple, the lower birthrate and labor shortages in and investors. On the eve of the Revolution a European Russia, as opposed to the higher third of Russia's industrial investment and a birthrates and abundance of manpower in Mos- half of the bank capital were of foreign origin." lem Central Asia, present a continuing dilem- Richard Pipes writes: "The result of technolog- ma. Central Asians, often without the Russian ical innovation was al peculiar blend of modern language, are largely unwilling to emigrate to technology imported from the West and servile areas where industry is located, but they are labor inherited from Muscovy, a mixture which providing an increasing percentage of soldiers contradicted the 19th Century belief that in- for the Soviet Armed Forces. Migration from dustrialism and bondage were incompatible." Siberia, where most untapped natural re- That cultural heritage, which 70 years of com- sources are located, may no longer be greater munism have only intensified, is what Gor- than migration into the region, as it was dur. bachev must overcome. ing most of the post-World War II period. so But There are other legacies. Nowhere do the older communities in Siberia are still losing dilemmas confronting Gorbachev's reforms ap- population. And the continuing rapid turnover pear more acute than in agriculture - not only of able-bodied workers who absorb the costly because the food shortage has grown more crit- subsidies to Siberia, but remain only two or ical in Soviet cities but also because grain im- three years before returning to Soviet Europe, ports are an increasing burden on the already is expensive and inefficient. overtaxed ability to earn foreign exchange. The U.S. Department of Agriculture predicts that the Soviets will purchase some 23 million tons Squaring the Circle of corn and other coarse grains in the year end- Gorbachev's answer- and it must be noted ing July 1989, making up for a smaller-than- that his announced specific goals and targets usual grain harvest in 1987-1988. have fluctuated widely since he first publicly The "agro-conundrum" has proved intract- unveiled perestroika in 1985** - appears to be able for generations of communist leadership. what some braver communist ideologues have Western experts have seen the problem as called "market socialism." As Vadim Medvedev primarily one of science and ideology - scien- put it, shortly after he was promoted last fall tific in the need for new seed varieties, fertil. to chief ideologue in the Politburo replacing izers, insecticides, mechanization, etc., all Gorbachev's arch-competitor Ligachev: "The products of capital-intensive research and de- market in our present day circumstances is an sa-6 indispensable means of flexibly regulating 2. An effort has been made to harness the production with growing and ever-changing notoriously successful activities of the black social need. Until recent times, the entire com- market, labeling them "cooperatives" in order plexity and multidin ensional nature of the to remove their stigma. Not only has Gor- processes of socialist construction were reduced bachev met resistance from the Party orthodox, to the idea of developing socialist property - but the marginal success of these new "cooper- with 8 simultaneous artificial restriction on atives" has largely had the consequence of en- cooperative and personal ownership." hancing the higher living standards enjoyed by But there is a basic contradiction 80 long as the nomenklatura in restaurants, coffee shops, planning in the communist state remains an automobile repairs, etc., adding to the general apparatus for allocating physical resources - as, public resentment. for example, the Hungarians, under much better 3. An anti-corruption campaign was launched conditions, have found out in the past decade." to increase efficiency. In reality, it has been An emigre agronomist. writes: "The planning used successfully to replace large numbers of system inherited by Mikhail Gorbachev at the Brezhnev-era bureaucrats. This purge has been time of his accession to power in March 1985 the most rapid since Stalin's day, but it has al- is the same basic two-tiered system with two ready included some Gorbachev appointees as main functional subsystems - one to plan out- well. Still, the campaign particularly against put and the other to distribute productive income from "moonlighting" almost brought resources - that had existed for decades.' peasant markets to a virtual standstill by When more radical reformers associated with mid-1986 and had to be toned down," as was Gorbachev propose to abolish the whole system, the anti-vodka campaign, which reaped bitter they are met with the firm opposition of the resentment among the populace, along with a bureaucracy and the conservative ideologues. sharp rise in illicit liquor-production and a In 1987 the plenary session of the Central Com- sugar shortage. mittee of the Communist Party of the Soviet 4. Self-financing for enterprises (khozraschet) Union accepted a much more compromised is perhaps the most ambitious of Gorbachev's line of "reform." Professor Nikolai Petrakov, attempted innovations: it sets out to end the Deputy Director of the Soviet Institute of Eco- virtual unlimited funding deficits of the state- nomics and Mathematics, told a recent Moscow owned enterprises, which have spurred run- meeting of the International Economic Associ- away inflation. According to all indications, ation that the proposed price reforms were sim- this reform has thus far been a total failure: ply a repetition of "the old management," and managers continue blithely to produce what that supply and demand still would not be they deem "necessary for balancing the econ- allowed to determine prices.* omy." That failure is, at least in part, the in- evitable result of the postponement into the indefinite future of a real price-reform, the A Perestroika Report-Card elimination of subsidies, etc." In assaying Gorbachev's possibilities of suc- 5. Although the Western press has reported cess from the welter of contradictory statements that industrial capacity and resources from the and various decrees, we can infer some broad Soviet military-industrial sector are being objectives. The following is a report-card on diverted to consumer goods, there is little evi- perestroika thus far in the light of those dence to substantiate such a shift.' Soviet mili- objectives: tary factories have produced consumer products 1. Light and consumer industry was to be in the past, and continue to do 80.40 Yet, any given relative freedom to determine what it reallocation of resources from military to would produce, how it would produce it and how civilian production runs up against the very in- it would be distributed Four years later in flexibilities of the Soviet system that perestroi- 1989, the lines are longer, there is rationing ka is supposed to redress. of meat and dairy products in a third of the Rus- Those are some of the salient entries in a sian Republic (more than 50 per cent of the report-card on perestroika thus far. More gener- population), sugar rationing has been imposed ally, one must go along with the conclusion in Moscow and inflation is rising. The popula- reached by two analysts after an exhaustive tion is promised no relief until at least 1994. study of the Gorbachev years: "In the light of sa-7 Gorbachev's performance in power, his biog. can football shaking off would-be tacklers - raphy, and the nature of the Soviet political while consolidating his personal power. system, the overwhelming evidence argues There is a more ennobling image of "Gor- that he has no desire to change the system through any fundamental reform and that he bachev, the ultimate tactician" - one probably more widespread among Western observers. is merely seeking ways of making the exist- ing system work more effectively. 7741 Or, as The This shows Gorbachev as a man who has recog- Economist put it recently: "Each change of nized the desperate ills of the Soviet system, has discerned the solutions to those ills, and course makes it that much harder for Mr. Gor- bachev to persuade Russians to take his poli- will spare no tactics or risks (including his per- cies seriously. It also becomes harder to detect sonal survival in power) in bringing those SO- lutions about. a coherent set of ideas behind the economic Either one of those portraits of Gorbachev as reforms, let alone to know quite where they the ultimate pragmatist and tactician may be are heading."⁴ persuasive and/or attractive - to the extent that they describe a politician in the Western Is There a Strategy Behind the Confusion? mold. But that is precisely the point: the images contradict everything we know about the Soviet Looking at Gorbachev, his background, his system and its leadership selection. ascent to power and the report-card on his First of all, it is difficult at best to conceive perestroika thus far, it is tempting to draw a of a "consensus candidate" for the position of one-dimensional portrait of the complete prag- Soviet dictator, implying as this does some sort matist and tactician. That portrait would show of silent poll of "electors." Candidates for that a man who has reached the top without the position climb the rungs of power, and they sur- benefit of the power base that in the past in- vive by dint of power. Secondly, Soviet history sured victory in the ruthless struggles for shows clearly that competitors for that highest leadership succession, from Khrushchev to An- rung may, indeed, employ the full gamut of tac- dropov. Zbigniew Brzezinski has described Gor- tics and flexible positions to reach it. Once bachev as the "consensus candidate" of a having reached the pinnacle, however, the task younger generation of aparatchiki sensitive to of the General Secretary of the Communist the failings of the system and chafing under Party of the Soviet Union is to establish a the weight of the "old guard" who refused to programmatic strategy - in keeping with the pass power and responsibilities downward in time-honored goals of the communist system. the system.44 In this crucial respect, what contradicts the Having thus scaled the pinnacle, the "consen- image of Gorbachev as the "ultimate prag- sus candidate" must cast about in establishing matist and tactician" may be not SO much his and consolidating his position. He institutes the domestic reforms as the dazzling sweep of his drive for reforms in the system demanded by "new thinking" in Soviet defense and foreign the "generation" that provides his only real policy. Unless we revemp completely our view support. Yet, he knows that it will take years of the interactions of the "constituencies" in for these reforms to make an appreciable im- Soviet defense and foreign policy, we have to pact on the system - if indeed, they will suc- assume that there is a larger strategic design ceed at all. In the meantime, his all-absorbing - one that has persuaded key elements to fall concern is to preserve himself in power. There- in line with Gorbachev's sweeping innovations fore, he manipulates his reform drive in two in the foreign and defense realm. principal ways: First, he uses it, in the tradi- What could be the outline of such a Gor- tion of all previous successors to. power, to bachev strategy that has gained the support of weaken, discredit and eliminate real and poten- major elements in the Soviet power-structure, tial enemies, particularly the privileged hold- including the military? The critical require- overs from the previous regime - ergo, the ment for the sagging Soviet economy - its mili- "anti-corruption" carapaign aimed at the tary sectors included - is to harness a steady "Brezhnevites." Beyond that, he exploits "re- source of technological transfusions from form" to SOW general confusion, shifting his abroad. The logical target is the area that has position this way and that way - in the always been the prized target of Russian, and analogy of a "broken-field runner" in Ameri- then Soviet, hegemonial aspirations: namely, sa-8 Western Europe. What seems to lie behind Gor- bachev's propagated theme of a "common Euro- Gorbachev needs to harness the creative energy that exists in the Baltics at whatever pean house" is a revised hegemonial design that looks not to conquest, nor to the direct as. levels for his perestroika Only political conces- sertion of intimidating power (although that sions to Baltic nationalism can hope to produce that result. In a recent Estonian article on eco- may ultimately come into play), but to a nomic problems, the writers contend: "A com- political-economic offensive with the objective petent opinion on this topic [perestroika] of the of turning Europe into an economic tributary recently elected Secretary of the Estonian Com- of the Soviet Union. That objective is to be pursued at the cost of other global Soviet com- munist Party Central Committee, sociologist Mikk Titma: For Western entrepreneurs, the mitments and with all the political and psycho- logical means available, including sweeping Estonian market is of no interest. For them, entering the capacious all-union market with schemes for disarmainent. us as intermediaries is lucrative. The time is More specifically, building a series of concen- near when all nations in our country will be- tric circles of "reform" and "limited freedom" in the Soviet empire from its heartland toward come aware even more profoundly that only within the Union of Socialist Republics do we Western Europe, Gorbachev hopes to exploit the represent a superpower with which it is profit- yield of whatever economic progress can be able for other countries to do business. 77744 To stimulated in that region, while reducing the motivate Baltic workers and stimulate entre- costs of empire. But the ultimate aim is to use preneurs - but also in order to provide the at- the region as a key to unlock fully the gates mosphere necessary for Finnish, Swedish and of the West European Economic Community as German investors to join a Soviet effort for it moves away from tight military-political al- greater productivity, Gorbachev must make liance with the United States toward a more concessions to Baltic nationalism, notwith- autarkical political-economic entity. standing the dangerous implications.45 Nor is this effort without historical precedent. When Lenin turned toward foreign private in- The Role of the Baltic Republics itiative during the NEP, "the emphasis was on concessions to Western entrepreneurs," writes If we postulate such a Gorbachev grand de- Antony C. Sutton in his monumental work on sign, current developments in the Baltic Repub- Western technology transfer. "The penetration lics of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania can be of early Soviet industry by Western companies seen in a new light. In examining events there, and individuals was remarkable. Western tech- the question immediately arises: How can nical directors, consulting engineers, and in- Moscow tolerate the level of dissidence that has dependent entrepreneurs were commmon in risen in that area? Are not the widely publi- the Soviet Union." Those concessions relied cized demands in the Baltic Republics, not only disproportionately on the then-newly indepen- for autonomy but in some instances for outright dent Baltic states, either as sites for industrial independence, stoking the fires of nationalist activity or as intermediaries in transferring unrest elsewhere in the Soviet Union? Could Western goods and technology. not those flames leap, for example, into the Another way of expressing the configuration huge Ukraine, with its history of explosive na- of this problem is that the Soviets have decided tionalism? Why does Moscow permit it? to make the Baltic Republics their version of Weight must be given to the very real eco- the Communist Chinese "foreign economic nomic difference between the Baltic region and zones." Those areas are adjacent to ports where most of the rest of the Soviet Union. Standards socialist economics are abandoned in favor of of living and productivity remain higher, even foreign entrepreneurs using Chinese labor and after the depredations of mass deportations partners, operating much as they would in 80- and post-World War II emigration. The five called free ports around the world. Foreign million people in the three former independent investors and their technology can be attracted states have sophisticated traditions of agricul- by special incentives, not the least among ture and trading going back to Medieval times them skilled labor forces more resembling - traditions rarely encountered elsewhere in those of the West. In order to effect a the Soviet empire. similar development, however, Moscow must SANDERS 10 sa-9 lend authenticity to the rhetoric of decentral- ization and, at least to some extent, meet Solidarity and the Polish regime bodes to open nationalist demands. for Moscow another indirect funnel to the West, while easing the burden of empire. And although the period of Soviet gross drain on "A Common European House" Poland and the other European satellites may The postulated strategic design of Gorbachev, be over, a Poland refinanced by Western capi- extended into Eastern and Central Europe, tal - and that is exactly what the Bush Ad- would feature a belt of states still "socialist" ministration appears to be considering" - and with strong economic and military-political could become an important asset in revamping ties to Moscow, but with graduations of "liber- trading within COMECON, a significant an- alization." These "reformed communist" states nounced goal of Soviet perestroika. would be used in "bait-and-switch" tactics to While the German Democratic Republic enlist Western economic aid and help in the seems to be holding out against Gorbachev's drawing down of NATO's defenses against a glasnost reforms, East German Communist still substantial Soviet military superiority. Party chieftain Erich Honecker could well One fulcrum of the new strategy is in the make the argument that he has already incor- legacy of the Hapsburg Empire. In the summer porated elements of perestroika in the relatively of 1988, the Austrians, after three decades of efficient East German vertical monopolies. Fur- nervously ultracorrect adherence to the neu- thermore, Honecker has advantages no other trality provisions of the 1955 Austrian State communist state enjoys: the "intra-German" Treaty, began to debate the possibility of entry trade provides Pankow not only with West Ger- into the European Common Market. Austrian man financing but also backdoor-access to the politicans, with their healthy fear of Soviet Common Market. West German payments - power and their long-standing economic ties to ranging from buying the exit of elderly East the Eastern Bloc, scarcely would have ventured German pensioners and "ecological subsidies" into such deep waters without at least tacit to financing and building a new autobahn from Soviet permission. Meanwhile, everything but Hamburg and a new railroad from Hanover to gypsies and violins are being brought out to fan Berlin - give the Pankow regime an enormous the embers of the centuries-old Vienna- cushion in foreign exchange and revenue. Yet Budapest connection. After more than a decade despite all this, the technological gap between of its own "goulash communism," and despite the East Germans and their West German heavy borrowing from Western banks and shift- neighbors is widening, and their terms of trade ing almost half of its trade to the West, with the West are worsening. All this suggests Budapest has failed at economic takeoff. The that Honecker, too, or his successor will be forced to try to find a way around the Wall in much publicized Hungarian miracle reflects seeking an even greater transfer of Western only a comparative prosperity relative to its technology, capital and trade. communist neighbors. Hungary now desperate- ly needs Austria (and Western financial resources through Vienna) to underwrite Western Responses undertakings like a Danube hydroelectric The concept of an Eastern and Central project, and a joint 1995 world's fair - along with the constant swarms of Austrian tourists Europe still communist and basically still a part of the Soviet system, but with economic - to sustain its relatively higher Bloc living standards. resuscitation from the West, already is being Meanwhile, an Austria inside the EEC would met halfway by elite opinion in the West. A new be a pipeline for Hungary (and the Soviet mood seems to have overtaken even conserva- Union) to Western Europe's markets. On the tive Western strategists and commentators, ex- political-military plane, a neutral Austria pressed in urgings that we "help" Gorbachev's would add its voice to existing forces within the ostensible goals in Eastern and Central Europe EEC to block any future effort to provide the as well as his perestroika in the Soviet Union. Economic Community with a defense and secu- For it is in Eastern and Central Europe, it is rity dimension. argued, where the greatest threat to peace and The recent tenuous agreement between stability lies as Soviet control weakens. Thus, a Czech emigre has written: "The West must san-10 successfully address the new divide in Central immediately by the newly installed Hungarian Europe and help reformers prove that democ- Communist Party chief (on his return from an racy and a free market are preconditions for interview with Gorbachev in Moscow): a functioning economy and productive relations "Analyzing the historical lessons of 1956 [the with the West. This will make traditional com- invasion of Hungary by Soviet troops] and 1968 munism virtually irrelevant. Otherwise, it is [the invasion of Czechoslovakia] Mikhail Gor- reformers, opposition forces and the West who bachev said that there must be maximum will suffer a loss of prestige and influence, while guarantees today that outside force should not conservative communists regroup and fight be used to resolve the internal affairs of so- back with vigor." cialist countries." In West Germany, a chorus of important Gorbachev is exploiting these Western hopes voices is advocating economic aid for Gor- with a marriage of economic necessity and geo- bachev's perestroika in order to purchase an political guile. The Soviet regime is using its improvement in relations between the two Ger- own refurbished image as moderate and manies and a purported new stability and neu- reformist to enlist Western aid to perestroika trality in Central Europe."1 There was the and to the unsettled satellite empire. Beyond remarkable spectacle in 1987 of Franz Josef that, through the deceptive construction of a Strauss, the late Bavarian conservative leader, "common European house" the Soviets would successfully negotiating a major loan to the take a long stride toward the dismantling of East German regime to finance West German NATO's defenses, Western Europe's progres- exports, with the quic! pro quo of an easing of sive separation from the United States, and its the situation on the intra-German border (al- ultimate transformation into an economic ready betrayed in a spate of shootings and kill- tributary of the Soviet Union. ings along the Berlin Wall in March 1989). In April 1989 a Trilateral Commission report by Valery Giscard d'Estaing, Yasuhiro Naka- If Gorbachev Fails sone and Henry A. Kissinger argued: [A] posture of delayed and uncoordinated reaction Our opening framework for analysis included to Soviet initiatives would enable the Kremlin a final question: If Gorbachev were to fail, what to define the East-West agenda and serve would be the likely options for those who suc- primarily Soviet interests." The report con- ceeded him in Soviet leadership? That question tinued: "Mr. Gorbachev's phrase, 'a common can be given short shrift because it takes us European house,' ignores the fundamental into an immense morass of speculation that differences between Western Europe, Eastern even the most incisive - and prescient - ob- Europe and the Soviet Union The coun- server of the Soviet scene cannot hope to divine tries of Central and Eastern Europe have a spe- with any degree of confidence. cial character For these countries, it is Perhaps the most remarkable accomplish- therefore important to devise a category of as ment of Gorbachev - which already ensures sociation with the European Community based him a place in history - is his illumination of on Article 238 of the Treaty of Rome [emphasis a profound systemic crisis in the Soviet Union. added]. This kind of association should be Discretion tells us that the longer-range ramifi- regarded as a new type of relationship adapted cations of that crisis can be exaggerated, espe- to the special circumstances of the countries cially in Western perceptions. The highest concerned." defector to leave the Soviet Union since World In a parallel proposal made directly to those War II has given us the following warning: conducting the Bush Administration's review There is no doubt that the USSR is ex. of foreign policy strategies, according to the periencing serious domestic and other New York Times, Kissinger's "basic concept of difficulties, but it has overcome worse the new arrangement would be for Moscow to troubles in the past. It has both tremendous loosen its hold over the region in exchange for natural wealth and vast human resources. a pledge by the United States and its Western In their ability to withstand centuries - not allies not to exploit the new environment in a decades - of hardship and privation and yet way that threatens the Soviet Union." This persevere, the Soviet people are unmatched leak of Dr. Kissinger's proposal was reinforced by any nation on earth, with the possible ex- sa-11 ception of the Chinese. The West, therefore, should not delude itself by focusing its atten- Party's Politburo and a (probably overwhelm- ing) majority in the Party as a whole tion exclusively on Soviet flaws and short- The deeper he gets into reform, the stiffer the comings The Soviet Union neither will opposition and the greater chance that he will reshape itself into a free-enterprise society wake up one morning out of a job - or else nor will it soon disintegrate. throw up his hands and resign. Still, if there is a minimal consensus behind Yet, if that transpires, given the reality of the Gorbachev in the aparat, it is in the recogni- crisis, would or could a successor regime undertake a radical change in direction? That tion of the existence of that crisis. The (osten. sible) opposition - from the "left" and from the question applies particularly to the unfolding "right" - appears to target the nature of his Gorbachev strategic design described above and reforms, their speed and his tactics. That to a solution of the fundamental problem: a Soviet technological base that, without opposition might yet overcome him. "Alas, the replenishment from the outside, can sustain new gloom about Mr. Gorbachev goes further," neither a functioning economy nor, in the writes The Economist. "Russia's economic mess may be too deep to scramble out of. The sorts longer run, a credible claim to world power. What all this suggests is that there should of reforms that are needed are unacceptable, be less concern in the West about what would if not yet to Mr. Gorbachev and his narrow happen if Gorbachev were to fail, and more con- circle of close supporters, then increasingly to a skeptical near-majority in the Communist cern - especially in Western Europe - about the implications of his succeeding. NOTES 1. Space does not permit $1 discussion of the enormously complex background that dictated Western attitudes in and the other is that we have not yet bred a race of super- each of these rather arbitrary demarcations 1 have chosen. men that can implement it While we were building as sured destruction capabilities, the Soviet Union was However, briefly said: The initial revolution by social democrats and then their Bolshevik successors in imperial building forces for traditional military missions capable of Russia found many nonsocialist Western sympathizers, destroying the military forces of the United States." Re- among them President Woodrow Wilson of the U.S. See marks by the Honorable Henry A. Kissinger, "NATO - Lloyd C. Gardner, A Covenant with Power: American and the Next Thirty Years," Palais d'Egmont, Brussels, Bel- gium. September 1, 1979. World Order from Wilson to Reagan (New York: Oxford University Press, 1984). The growing menace of Hitler's 2. See for instance a recent interview with S. Bovin, political commentator with Izvestiya, entitled "The Basis Germany, the promise of 8 new era in the promulgation Cironically, virtually as Stalin's Trials began) of the ultra. of the Program is Life Experience" in the Soviet publica- liberal 1936 (Stalin) Soviet Constitution convinced the pub- tion Argumenty I Fakty, No. 11, March 18-24, 1989. 8 lic, particularly left-of-center intellectuals in Europe and I meet with increasing frequency people who already in kindergarten unmasked Stalin's 'personality cult' and America, that common cause could be made with the revealed Khrushchev's voluntarism' when still in first Soviets against the growing Nazi-fascist threat. See, for grades at school, and then Brezhnev's and Chernenko's example, the interview with Stalin by H.G. Wells, noted 1930s British historian and novelist "I have never met labels when they were in senior grades. Such people, of a man more candid, fair and honest course, decisively refuse to regard themselves as respon- No one is afraid of him and everybody trusts him." H.G. Wells, Marxism sible for the state of the society in which they lived and still do live." and Liberty, an interview ONew York: International Pub- 3. "Such differences as remain [between the Soviet Union lishing Co., 1935). "Good Old Uncle Joe" was more than a elightly sarcastic slogan in World War II with U.S. lead- and the U.S.] are not such that preclude a normal relation- ship, particularly when leadership on the Russian side is ers as well as the general American public Eugene Lyons, in the hands of a man such as Gorbachev Red Decade: The Stalinist Penetration of America, 1941 What could we, from our side, do to promote the normalization of this (reprinted by Revisionist Press, 1980). And, finally, no one summed up the disappointments of detente so well as [Soviet-U.S.] relationship and to shape its future in B man- Henry A. Kissinger, one of its principal authors: "Under ner commensurate with its positive possibilities? It would the doctrine of assured destruction, nuclear war became seem obvious, to this writer at least, that our first concern not a military problem but one of engineering It depended should be to remove, insofar as it lies within our power OD the theoretical calculations of the amount of economic to do so, those features of American policy and practice that and industrial damage that one needed to inflict on the have their origins and their continuing rationale in out- other side It was a general theory that suffered two dated cold war assumptions and lack serious current justifi- drawbacks One was that the Soviets did not believe it, cation." George F. Kennan, "After the Cold War," New York Times Magazine, February 5, 1989. sa-12 NOTES (Continued) 4. "The real question is whether the Western world is 11. Judy Shelton, The Coming Soviet Crash: Gorbacheu's willing to extend a helpful hand in a timely way to Gor- Desperate Pursuit of Credit in Western Financial Markets bachev in the hope that he means what he says on dis- (New York: The Free Press, 1989). armament and can stay in power Let us face it: for 12. "The Soviet leaders' attempt to reform the system the West to respond affirm atively to Gorbachev's initia- is not inspired by some noble realization that the system tive is a gamble. He might take the aid he seeks and not is universally poorly regarded abroad, but by strict neces- deliver on bis promises. O1 be might want to deliver on sity. They have come to realize what other communists his promises and be frustrated by the Red Army gener- in Yugoslavia, Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia and als. Or he might take the help offered by the West, as China realized earlier - namely, that communism does Pepsico's Donald Kendall has suggested, and still face not work. It would not work at the economic level nor at Herculean problems that will take two generations to the level of satisfying human needs and liberties. Put solve." Hobart Rowen, "Giving Gorbachev a Hand," all these factors side by side with the rapid growth of tech- Washington Post, December 29, 1988. nological advance of the Western and modern worlds and 5. Gorbachev has specifically rejected this term, argu- you cannot help realizing that communism is a 19th Cep- ing. "It may seem that our current perestroika could be tury relic and a prescription for disaster They [the called a 'revolution from above'. True, the perestroika Soviet rulers] realize that Stalinism, the 'command scon- drive started on the Communist Party's initiative, and ony' and the conservative bureaucracy have made the the Party leads it It is a distinctive feature and system a permanent loser vis-a-vis the variously mixed strength of perestroika that it is simultaneously a TEVO- economies of the world." Milovan Djilas, "Djilas on Gar- lution 'from above' and "from below'." But earlier be bachev," Encounter, November 1988. wrote: the restructuring effort started with the Party 13. "Since central planning has allowed the Soviet Un- and its leadership. We began at the top of the pyramid ion only one factory that makes condoms poorer work- and went down to its base, as it were." Mikhail Gor- ing women in Russia's unequal society probably average bachev, Perestroika: New Thinking for Our Country and between four and six abortions in their lives. All of these the World, updated edition (New York: Harper & Row, unnecessary abortions are then counted as part of doc- 1988). pp. 41-42. tors' gross production, and therefore swell Russia's 6. See Seymour Weiss, Soviet Detente: The Colli- reported national income. Most Western attempts to trans- sion of Hope and Experience," Strategic Review, Winter late fictitious communist growth figures into real ones, 1989, pp. 16-24, for an insightful comparison of present including one by America's Central Intelligence Agency, events to the Khrushchev period. have been far too kind to the communista That has long 7. John J. Dziak, Chekisty: A History of the KGB Aex- been known by readers of the mainly mimeographed ington, MA: Lexington Books, 1988). papers from some fine economists still in Hungary and 8. We have a vast literature, if sometimes forgotten even Poland" The Economist, June 25, 1988. by many anticommunists over the years, and much of it 14. "Estimates of total Soviet indebtedness to the West unknown to younger noncommunists less schooled in the were roughly doubled overnight in May 1984 The experience of dealing with communist history as it un- joint report issued by the OECD and the Bank for Inter- folded. In the 1930s and 1940s such men as Eugene Lyons, national Settlements (BIS) for loans outstanding as of the Isaac Don Levine, Victor Serge, Max Eastman, Arthur end of June 1983 showed that the Soviet Union ranked Koestler and dozens of others in the West often at great as the third largest hard-currency debtor in the world, ex- cost to their reputations, and samizdat writers in the East cluding the 16 industrial countries plus Liechtenstein who often at the risk of their lives, exposed the real conditions report to the OECD The most astonishing aspect of inside the Soviet Union. Most of the current "revelations" the report, though, was that the Soviet Union ranked first of the Soviet press add little to that body of fact and opin- in the world in loans subsidized by Western governments." ion In fact, we have the travesty of the officially permitted Shelton, op. cit., p. 121. Soviet "dissident" press borrowing sometimes whole-hog 15. Antony C. Sutton, Western Technology and Soviet from such writings. And we have the testament of defec- Economic Development, 1917-1930, Vol. 1 (Stanford, CA: tors and emigres that the Soviet people, themselves, al. Hoover Institution Press, 1968). ways believed far less of the official history than might 16. The invasion of Afghanistan was accomplished in be imagined by those outside. part with the use of trucks built at the famous Kama 9. Varily Selyunin and Grigory Khanin, "Cunning River Truck Factory, a dramatic instance of U.S.-German Figures," Nouyy Mir, February 1987, PP. 181-201. In this technological transfer to the Soviets. article on statistical raethodology the two Russian 17. For example, Selyunin and Kanin, op. cit., referring economists wrote: "The distortion of the product volumes to the current five-year plan, argue that the basic flaws has spread to estimates of productivity and capital and from in Soviet estimates of production, are enormous: them to all the accounts figures." The authors conclude as Upon inspection, industry will not have produced one- an the peasimistic note that a reconstruction of all statis fourth of the scheduled additions in physical reality. This tics is inevitable, for without it the "revolutionary" changes is not an assumption. For example, in the last Five-Year in the Soviet economy IKW being called for by Gorbachev Plan. the planned increase in coal production was 54-56 will not be possible. million tons; the actual increase constituted 10 million 10. Valdimir Treml, "External Relations of CEMA tons. It was anticipated that the production of rolled fer- Countries," The NATO Colloquium: Soviet Dependence rous metal would increase 14-17 million tons; in prac- on Foreign Trade (Brussels: 1983). tice, the addition was 5 million tons." sa-13 NOTES (Continued) 18. Anders Aslund, "How Small is the Soviet National 22. See Murray Feshbach, "Soviet Military Health Is- Income?" Hoover-Rand Conference on the Defense Sec- sues," Gorbachev's Economic Plans, Study Papers, U.S. tor in the Soviet Economy (Stanford University, Stanford, Congress, Joint Economic Committee (Washington, DC: CA, March 1988). Government Printing Office, 1987). 19. Indeed, the gossip arrong emigres and defectors is 23. See James M. McConnell, "SDI, the Soviet Invest- that Gorbachev, with obvicusly demonstrable talent and ment Debate and Soviet Military Policy," Strategic energy, rose to power through the classic route with the Review, Winter 1988, PP. 47-62. security apparatus and by currying favor with Party lead- 24. Gorbachev, Perestroika, op. cit., p. 39. are He might well be regarded not only as a typical Party 25. Richard Pipes, "The Missing Bourgeoisie," Russia aparatchik but a quintessential product of the late Under the Old Regime (New York: Scribner, 1976), Chap- Stalinist and Brezhnev erall of corruption and stagnation ter 8, P. 219. ever among the Party cadre. See Vladimir Solovyov and 26. Ibid, P. 215. Elena Klepikova, Behind the High Kremlin Walls (New 27. That experience is true in noncommunist societies York: Dodd, Mead & Ca, 1986). "Gorbachev was fortunate as well as within the Bloc. See Sol W. Sanders, Mexico: to hold office in an area of productive land and kind cli- Choos on Our Doorstep (Lanham, MD: Madison Press, Se- mate, which made his job that much easier. More impor- cond Edition, 1989). tant, however, was the fact that his territory enjoyed 28. A French intelligence source who claims to have special care and generous funding from Moscow because visited 200 kolkozes in recent years told me in a private of the famous Caucasian mineral springs, around which interview: "The pattern of peasant agriculture has been developed resort towns favored by the elite. The mineral broken in the Soviet Union It cannot be reestablished in springs became not only an mid to the health of many high- less than a generation at best. Communist policy has re- ranking Party and government members but also a foun- warded the worst elements in the rural area. You cannot dation of Gorbachev's rising career. Kosygin, Andropov imagine the backwardness, the moral degradation in the and other Soviet leaders were there periodically for med- countryside. We have not seen anything like that in ical treatments and rest. As the local Party boas, Gar- Western Europe for hundreds of years." For a view of rural bachev had the opportunity to meet them many times and, squalor in the 1950s - and it has probably not improved as the Russians say, pokarat tover litsom - to show him- significantly - as seen through the eyes of a young Mosco- self at his best." Arkady N. Schevchenko, Breaking with vite, a child of the nomenklatura, see Vladimir Sakharov Moscow (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1985), p. 185. and Umberto Tosi, High Treason (New York: Putnam Pub- 20. George F. Keenan, in answer to the question of how lishing Group. 1980). the Soviet system "which has put such a premium on con- 29. See Murray Feshbach, "The Age Structure of Soviet formity, on safety, could produce a Gorbachev?" says: Population: Preliminary Analysis of Unpublished Data," "You know, I really cannot explain it. Numbers of us who Soviet Economy, Vol. 1, No. 2, 1985, PP. 177-193. have known that country for a long time simply stand 30. Zalanskaya, Kalmuk, Khakhulina, "Problemy Sot- without an explanation as to how a man with these quali- sial'nogo Razzittya Sibri I Tuti Resheniya," Izvestia ties could have emerged from a provincial party appara- Siberiskogo Otdelaniya Academii Nauk SSR, Seriya tus in the North Caucasus. I have asked that question Ekonomiki Prickladnoy Sotsiologi, Vol. 1, No. 1, January of people in the Soviet Union One thing that they said 1986. was that you must remember that he was a student of 31. For example, the Central Committee plenum on law at Moscow University, and they told me to my sur- agriculture in March 1989 abolished the superministry, prise, because I had never known it, that the law school GOSAGROPROM, which Gorbachev himself had set up had retained certain types of teaching and training, and only in 1985 as a showcase for perestroika. training also in mannerisms of the law which existed in 32. The Financial Times, October 6, 1988; Washington almost no other place of legal instruction in Russia, and Post, October 6, 1988. that may have had something to do with it I think 33. In May 1987 in Moscow, I asked Abel G. Aganbegyan, it is rather a miracle." "MacNeil/Lehrer Newshour," the famous Gorbachev intimate and the best known of the WNET New York, December 21, 1989. Solovyov and Novosibirak revisionist economists, a principal propagan- Klepikova, op. cit., as well as other sources, suggest the dist for perestroika abroad, with what mechanism resources Moscow University Law Faculty in the late Stalin years would be allocated between the civilian and military econ- was a recruiting ground for the security organs From one omies under perestroika. He looked pensive for a moment of those Communist leaders who did have a real conver- or two, and then threw his arm up toward the ceiling with: sion at the cost of power and almost his life, Milovan Dji- "It would have to be decided above." las of Yugoslavia: "Perhaps in his heart of hearts 34. Valentin Litvin, "On Perestroika: Reforming Eco- Gorbachev realizes that the Marxist conception of social. nomic Management,' Problems of Communism, July- ism is a museum piece We do not know. What we do know August 1987, pp. 87-98. is that he behaves as though he believes in the basic 35. "Soviet Battle Over Price Changes," The Financial soundness of the Soviet system and its reformability Times, March 30, 1989. through technology, renewed dedication, and the introduc- 36. David Remmick, "Soviet Economic Forecast: Be tion of selective freedoms." Djilas, op. cit. Patient," Washington Post, January 26, 1989. 21. Ilya Zemtsov and John Farrar, Gorbachev: The Man 37. "Go, Go Back, Go Gorbachev," The Economist, and the System (New Brun swick, NJ: Transaction Pub- March 25, 1989. lishers, 1989), p. 366. 38. lbid. sa-14 NOTES (Continued) 39. "For the next several years the benefits of arms that was a partial answer. But more important, he said, control for Gorbachev, particularly with respect to stra- was that they had worked with their partner, a Soviet tegic weapons, are primarily strategic and political, not Estonian government firm, for 30 years and knew their economic. In terms of potential savings, strategic offen- abilities as contrasted with bureaucratic operations in sive weapons account for only about 10 per cent of the other parts of the Soviet Union. Soviet military budget and the Soviets already have 46. Sutton, op. cit., PP. 168, 171. made the investment necessary for production of their 47. During 8 visit to Vienna last October, I found most strategic weapons force through the mid-1990s. Only observers believed that the Russians did, in fact, through significant conventional force reductions could encourage the proposal. Gorbachev begin to realize any major economic benefit 48. Peter Riddell, "Bush Review Urges Caution on Gor- and, to a great extent, this would be years in the future." bachev," The Financial Times, April 13, 1989. From a talk by Robert M. Gates, Deputy Director of Cen- tral Intelligence, CIA, before the American Association 49. Jan Winiecki, The Distorted World of Soviet-type Economies (London: Routledge, 1988). Also Economic for the Advancement of Science, Colloquium on Science, Bulletin, German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), Arms Control and National Security, Washington, DC, April 1989, Vol. 26, No. 2 English language edition). October 14. 1988. 60. Milan Svec, "Communist Reformers Need Our 40. Julian Cooper, "The Civilian Production of the Help," Washington Post, April 10, 1989. Soviet Defense Industry," a paper presented at the 51. See Sol W. Sanders, "Trying to Understand West Symposium on Soviet Sciences and Technology, Centre Germany's Sovi-Euphoria," Christian Science Monitor, for Russian and East European Studies, Department of November 29, 1988. Horst Empke, fraktionfuhrer of the Extramural Studies, University of Birmingbam, Septem- Social Democratic Party in the Bundestag in Bonn, told ber 24-25, 1984. me in October 1988 during a conversation about his 41. Zemtsov and Farrar, op. cit., p. 84. party's position on the Soviet problem: "Yes, you can say 42. The Economist, March 25, 1989. there is an alliance between some of the enterprise heads 43. Zbigniew Brzezinski, "The U.S. Soviet Relation- in the private sector and our party's policy on aid to the ship: Paradoxes and Prospects," Strategic Review, Spring Soviets. They would like to see government subsidies as 1987, pp. 11-18. a way to renovate and convert to other product lines. We 44. Valeriy Badov and Viktor Shirokov, "Does Narva would like to see them [as an instrument of government Need a Customs Checkpoint?" Sotsialisticheskaya Indue- policy] to help Gorbachev and perestroika." triya, March 2, 1989, English translation in FBIS Daily 52. "East- West Relations: A Draft Report to the Report, FBIS-SOV-89-052. Trilateral Commission," April 1989. 45. In Finland in the fall of 1988, I spoke to an official 53. Thomas L. Friedman, "Baker, Outlining World of a Finnish subsidiary of IL multinational corporation View, Assesses Plan for Soviet Bloc," New York Times, which had only recently made an investment in a Soviet March 28, 1989. joint venture. The spokesnian said that, frankly, had 54. James Blitz (London) and Quentin Peel (Moscow), they had to choose any other place in the Soviet Union "Gorbachev Pledges No Interference in East Bloc Coun- than Estonia to make the investment, it would not have tries' Affairs," The Financial Times, March 30, 1989. been made. I asked if that were because of the affinity 55. Schevchenko, op. cit., p. 368. of the Finnish and Estonian languages and the geo- 56. The Economist, March 11, 1989. graphic proximity and the facility that provided He said TOTAL P.15 14 THE CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 29, 1988 OPINION Trying to understand West Germany's Sovi-euphoria country, and when the German banks trary to the logic of the horrendous Soviet By Sol W. Sanders begin to twist our arm, what can we do?" something that Moscow can do for us on pulled the Germans into so many Berlin, if we meet them halfway." TOM HUGHES STAFF economic problems, which make any ex- From a sitting member of the Bun- pansion of normal trade with the West HE atavistic fascination with Rus- T destag for West Berlin: "Maybe there is impossible, and the intensely enigmatic sia that over the centuries has politics of the communist state, which defy any attempt "to help Gorbachev" - misadventures in Eastern Europe is tug- From a working-level employee of one Bonn is moving toward a massive new aid ging hard at the Federal Republic. of the largest German companies facing program to Moscow. Chancellor Helmut Kohl's recent state bankruptcy in the Ruhr, "The Soviets Even more distressing is the lack of a visit to Moscow is only the first in a series cannot pay, and I do not see the possibil- strategy or even a set of tactics in West- of tests in the next months of how far ity of government credits." ern Europe for dealing with the Soviets in Bonn will go to find a new relationship In a think tank in Munich, an analyst this new era of perestroika and glasnost. with the Kremlin. At stake is the delicate who has worked on the USSR for most of As the Germans quietly worry about a balance of the Western alliance, caught in his career paints a grim picture of the Soviet-American negotiation over their the vise of a growing European hope that Soviet political economy but sounds opti- heads, there is little to reassure them. a new and permanently peaceful relation- mistic about possible German-Soviet col- The NATO headquarters in Brussels, ship can be built with the East and doubts laboration. led by its first German secrtary-general, about the ability of the United States to In the Ministry of Defense, a longtime has become a citadel of golf and bureau- continue to lead the alliance. observer acknowledges that despite no cratic retreat from reality. Washington is A curious phenomenon exists all over evidence that the Soviets have made ma- paralyzed in the rosy haze of the Reagan Germany: At the working echelons of jor cutbacks or changes in military strat- sunset. Neither of the US presidential both government and the private sector, egy, his new minister went to Moscow candidates responded in more than cli- there is great skepticism of Soviet Com- with Dr. Kohl ready to make unilateral chés to the conundrum of maintaining the munist Party boss Mikhail Gorbachev's concessions in disarmament negotiations. sword of deterrence in a Western Europe motivations, pessimism about his chances Perhaps it is the little social and grace moving rapidly toward nuclear disarma- to succeed, and great caution about any notes in conversations that are the most ment yet faced with the Soviets' continu- initiatives toward the Soviet Union: But disturbing for a visiting American: At a Helmut Kohl ing massive conventional threat. Most be- as one mounts in the bureaucracy or to- very fashionable cocktail party in Frank- lieve that the 1992 goal of economic ward the board rooms of the corpora- furt, the just retired head of the local said (aretired general tells you) socialism integration of the European Common tions, optimism grows, flowering into branch of one of Germany's largest banks should run like the German railroads, Market is unrealistic. And it is not only euphoria. announces he is off to Leningrad for three how (from an Austrian businessman) Margaret Thatcher who, while opposing From F. Wilhelm Christians, former co- months. "I want to brush up on my Rus- "you Americans have always overesti- supranationality for the European Com- chairman of the powerful Deutschebank, sian. I was a prisoner of war there during mated them." When this American, fol- munity, has no alternative rallying cry which led the push for $1.6 billion in new World War II." Then, with unconcealed lowing one of these conversations, for the West Europeans. credits for the Soviets: "We have lost our glee, "When the Russians asked me what I pointed out that the two peoples had al- markets in Latin America. We must and did as a U-boat captain, I told them I sank most destroyed each other in the last two Sol W. Sanders, a New York-based can develop new markets in the Soviet British and American ships. And they generations, a friend replies, "Ah! but you free-lance journalist, has just com- Union." said: 'Good!' And that was when they Americans don't understand that there pleted a six-week tour of Germany, From a prominent Swiss bank econo- were supposed to have been your allies!" would not have been a modern German Scandinavia and Finland, Switzer- mist: "I do not believe my bank should One tires of hearing German after Ger- state if the czar hadn't protected Prussia land and Austria, researching a book "lend to the Soviets for tactical and strate- man describe how well the two countries from Napoleon." on Soviet economic dependence on gic reasons. But we will. We are a small know and admire each other, how Lenin The inevitable conclusion is that - con- the West. Monday, March 13, 1989 THE CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR 19 How Finland Deals With the Russian Bear booming barter trade with Mos- "Buy a Lada; you'll have a Fiat in a settlement. Under new arrange- business there. cow. At its height, this trade con- a year when all the parts are ments, the Finns now will get in- One businessman said that his By Sol W. Sanders stituted 27 percent of Finland's replaced.") terest when the permanent trade company, in order to preserve its total business abroad. Even the creation of a joint imbalance goes beyond 100 mil- market, would enter into a joint Today it's another story. The refining company with the Sovi- lion in Soviet rubles. And when it company arrangement. But - and INLAND'S trade with the F Finns, only 5 million strong with a ets, which might have been used goes over 200 million rubles, Hel- he made a gesture of brushing off Soviet Union is dropping largely rural and agrarian past, to ship petroleum products off to sinki can convert part of it into his hands - "We will capitalize it sharply - despite the coun- have moved into the big time. third countries, hasn't helped. other currencies. In fact, some of at the lowest possible level so that try's post-World War II role as Finnish companies include a half And Helsinki is now predicting the trade theoretically can now be we can walk away from it at any one of Russia's main suppliers in dozen world-class multinationals. $14 per barrel oil prices next carried on in FinnMarks, a con- moment." the West. And Finland's booming (if slight- year, which would drive Soviet vertible currency. And the Finns Over the years, the Finns have The decline in trade comes at a ly overheated) economy provides have taken the precaution, just in taken a bum rap from many West- time when Finland's burgeoning one of the highest living stand- case there is something to the ru- ern anticommunists for their rela- hi-tech exports would seem to be ards in Europe. It is a develop- mor of a convertible ruble, of in- tions with the Soviets. The truth just what perestroika needs. The mental model - the envy of its Finland can't find anything suring themselves against a possi- is, abandoned by Western allies reasons offer an interesting vi- Scandinavian neighbors who mar- to buy in the USSR, other ble Soviet devaluation. twice during the winter war in gnette on the USSR's economic vel at its ability to keep the lid on than petroleum, to pay for Still, it won't be easy. The So- 1939 and again in 1945, they troubles - and a cautionary tale welfare statism. Today Soviet for those optimists in the West trade is less than 12 percent of its exports. viets have failed to respect past have made the best of living next limits on the barter imbalance. to the Great Bear, including their who ogle potentially rich Soviet Finland's total. The overwhelm- Only the central bank's blocking commercial relations. "Finlandi- markets. ing bulk of her international of $350 million in back orders zation" has been bandied about The Finns, by all accounts, trade is with West Germany and exports down by as much as 25 forced the Russians into the new for years as a term for knuckling know more about trading with other Western nations. percent from 1988. settlement after months. The under to Moscow. But it is a the Soviets than anyone. In the But it is not all peaches and But the Soviets will buy almost agreement doesn't take effect un- misnomer. aftermath of World War II - dur- cream. The Finns still depend anything the Finns can sell them - til 1990, and it isn't entirely clear, It has been a grueling relation- ing which Finland had joined heavily on exports to the Soviets. or did, as long as it was on a barter in the government announce- ship, one that the Finns did not Germany as a co-belligerent Some 70,000 Finns still owe their basis that built up huge de facto ments, what happens to the accu- willingly enter, but they had little against the Soviets following their jobs to these exports, which tend credits. mulated debt. option. Entrepreneurs and their own short and catastrophic win- to be labor-intensive. That's The situation came to a head Nor do the Finns yet know chancelleries in the West, on the ter war to stave off Soviet aggres- down from 140,000 just a few last spring when Finland's tough- how they are going to balance the other hand, do have a choice sion - Moscow saddled its little years ago. minded central bank called a halt trade. Finnish businessmen will about how far they get into the northern neighbor with an enor- But the big problem is that to Soviet barter exports. Moscow tell you, confidentially, that so far bear's den. mous reparations burden. Hel- Finland can't find anything to buy had run up nearly a $1 billion perestroika has been a disaster. sinki had to come up with $300 in the Soviet Union, other than debt against the Finns, mostly in- Those I talked with last fall were Sol W. Sanders, a free-lance million gold dollars worth of petroleum, to pay for its exports. terest-free. The Bank of Finland, virtually unanimous in their pessi- writer based in New York, recently. goods. A Soviet Lada, a quasi-1950s-Fiat, obviously, didn't think Finland mism. They did not see a solution toured northern Europe as part of Not only did the Finns pay the sells for half the price of a Japa- should finance perestroika. to Soviet economic problems and research for a forthcoming book on bill, but they developed out of it a nese equivalent in Helsinki. (Joke: It took most of last year to get the myriad frustrations of doing Soviet dependence on the West. Services of Mead Data Central PAGE 2 1ST STORY of Level 1 printed in FULL format. Copyright (c) 1989 The Washington Post March 17, 1989, Friday, Final Edition SECTION: STYLE; PAGE D1 LENGTH: 3169 words HEADLINE: Secret Weapon At the NSC; Condoleezza Rice, Breaking Barriers on Bush's Team BYLINE: Phil McCombs, Washington Post Staff Writer BODY: "I'm a nice Southern girl," she says. There's a simplicity in her smile, her trim gray suit, the way her short hair is pulled back and tied behind. But Condoleezza Rice has come a long way from Birmingham, from the parents who cherished her dreams, the segregated school where her teachers chipped in to buy textbooks, the restaurant that suddenly fell silent when her family entered one night to test the 1964 Civil Rights Act. Now, at 34, Rice has been named director for Soviet and East European affairs on Brent Scowcroft's National Security Council staff. A professor of political science at Stanford, she's considered one of the nation's leading young Sovietologists, respected by many elder statesmen of that specialized calling. = Condi brings prodigious expertise, both academic and practical, to her position," Scowcroft said in a statement yesterday. "She has a broad intellectual conception of the problems and realities of the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe." Her rise is an American success story with classic elements of pluck, luck and hard work, and also marked by the special perils ---- or, in some cases, subtle advantages -- of being a beautiful woman making her professional way in the predominantly male world of superpower politics, nuclear weapons and arms control. "This is still a very macho game," she says. "It's the last bastion - right? -- military power?" She smiles and concedes, "I don't mind the shock value at all. You walk into a room --- you get it either here or in the Soviet Union - and people just don't understand, it doesn't compute somehow. But in the United States, people are getting more accustomed to it. There are more and more women out there on strategic policy issues today." When sexism surfaces, "it's usually an unintentional comment about women and whether there's enough fiber in them to believe in the use of force. Haven't they heard of Margaret Thatcher, Indira Gandhi, or Cleopatra for that matter?" Rice knows from a throw-weight. She made an academic specialty of the Soviet military, and has studied the Moscow press - particularly military journals -- for 15 years. Yet somehow, she rarely fails to surprise. When Marshall I. Goldman of Harvard's Russian Research Center once attended one of her lectures there on the Soviet military, he was stunned. "I said, LEXIS® NEXIS® LEXIS® NEXIS Services of Mead Data Central PAGE 3 (c) 1989 The Washington Post, March 17, 1989 'Wow, where did she learn all that?' This was very technical stuff, it was stuff I didn't know I was very taken with her competence, because she was a female. That's maybe a sexist statement. Military stuff is arcane to begin with - I don't know of any other woman who's a specialist on that." After she appeared on ABC News' "Nightline" to analyze Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev's arms cuts, two marriage proposals arrived in the mail. It wasn't unusual. And after she spoke on nuclear strategy - in Russian - to Soviet officials in Moscow last spring, the official Moscow News reported that "men [were] wondering" why, when she "should be busy cooking and driving her admirers mad instead she aptly juggles numbers of missiles." Says Rice diplomatically: "They just have no context for somebody like me." Her dad, John W. Rice, a retired university administrator, remembers family automobile trips north in the early '60s when there wasn't a hotel between Birmingham and Washington that would accept blacks. One time, when he took a picture of 9-year-old Condoleezza in front of the White House, she told him, "I'm standing in front of the White House now, but one day I'm going to be in it!" "I was lucky," she says. "I grew up in a nice middle-class black neighborhood where everybody was given piano and ballet lessons, and we had clubs. I actually was in a cotillion." But she also remembers "the marches, and I remember the church being bombed in Birmingham -- a little girl I'd gone to kindergarten with was killed. I grew up in absolutely segregated schools until I was through the ninth grade You don't ever want to forget that there were days in America when you couldn't stay in a hotel, or that my mother, who was absolutely beautiful, had no poll tax imposed on her, while my father had a devil of a time voting." She remains determinedly upbeat: "I do believe that in part you shape your sense of well-being, you have control over whether or not you think you have control. Will plays an important part I can see pain and suffering, and it makes me unhappy and sad, but I try not to let it be debilitating." Her parents doted on her. She read music before she read words, and played the piano. Her name was derived from the musical notation con dolcezza - sweetly. "It was nothing to hear Condi playing Beethoven or Bach at 3 or 4 in the morning," says her father. "It woke us up, but she was an only child. She could do no wrong." Both parents were educators. Her mother, herself a pianist, was an elementary school teacher, and her father -- who had been a Presbyterian minister -- was named dean of students at Stillman College in Tuscaloosa, Ala. Fascinated by politics and history, he had become a Republican in the late '50s after seeing that "the Democrats weren't anxious for blacks to be part of their party." LEXIS® NEXIS® LEXIS® ® NEXIS Services of Mead Data Central PAGE 4 (c) 1989 The Washington Post, March 17, 1989 He was a strong influence on his daughter, who, like him, remains a moderate Republican, deeply religious, and hooked on politics and football. "We watched the Kennedy-Nixon debates when I was a 6-year-old," she recalls, "and the coverage of the Cuban missile crisis." Because of the proximity of Cuba, this "had an immediacy for people living in the Southeast We were living in the middle of political times, and my father really wanted me to think that politics and history were dramatic and interesting. "He bought me comic books that were historical We discussed everything openly. As a child in the South, to be told you can't go in this or that restaurant without context would have been damaging to your self-concept. My parents wanted me to have a historical context for that, that there's nothing wrong with you, this is a long historical process that's playing out." And football? "She knows more about it than any four guys I ever met," says a colonel who worked with her in 1986 when she was studying nuclear strategy for the Joint Chiefs of Staff as a Council on Foreign Relations fellow. "It was awesome. She talked plays, how things went in the games. It was definitely not cocktail conversation." (Rumors flew around the Pentagon at that time that a bunch of Denver Broncos had pursued her. Rice, who has never been married, confirms she once dated a professional football player, but declines to discuss her social life further.) Her early education in Birmingham, she says, was thorough even though her school ranked low "on anybody's scale of academic assets. I had extraordinary teachers, all of whom were black, and who spent Tuesday and Thursday nights at my father's church tutoring to make up for what you couldn't learn in school." By the time the family moved to Denver when she was 15, she had "no trouble" entering a highly regarded white Catholic prep school. "My background had been excellent," she says, "and that was an eye-opener. It can be done in the poorest of schools." The Civil Rights Act of 1964 was a turning point for the family. "We'd been prepared for it for a long time," she remembers. "There was a real sense of a coming legacy. Two days after the act went through, we went to a restaurant to test it out, and I'll never forget going in and having the whole restaurant kind of stop eating ---- and then pausing for a minute, and then going back and eating again, and saying, 'Yeah, that's that!' They managed to serve us, and serve us politely." Though another time, at a drive-in hamburger joint, they got burgers with no meat onions only. "Progress came in fits and starts." When she ran into Lynda Johnson Robb at a recent Aspen Institute seminar in Jamaica, Rice told her, = 'I'm part of your father's legacy.' I think she was moved by it." LEXIS® NEXIS® LEXIS® NEXIS® Services of Mead Data Central PAGE 5 (c) 1989 The Washington Post, March 17, 1989 John Rice had always assured his daughter that things would be different for her generation. "And as it turned out," she says, "things were different for him, too! He moved to a big, largely white university [the University of Denver, where he was a vice chancellor], and my mother taught in integrated schools." Her mother Angelena died of cancer in 1985, and only their faith kept father and daughter intact. "I was a little angry at God," says John Rice. But he moved to California to be near Condoleezza, got into community work in the poor area of East Palo Alto and began rebuilding his life. His daughter believes "that you are given talents and instinct and direction through faith, and then you try to use them for the common good if you possibly can." In her work, this means "issues of war and peace and human values - what WE think of as political issues - they're bigger than politics. They're about human beings Politics is the playing out of human aspirations through governmental structures." Though Soviet ideologues may never quite grasp it, Rice is "not apologetic" about her patriotism. "Maybe that's where historical perspective and knowing other political systems helps," she says. I don't have rose-colored glasses about the United States or what it still has to achieve. We have to be sure that there isn't another 9-year-old in Birmingham who doesn't have full access ... But I was part of a generation of black people who, at least in their early years, had every expectation that we'd grow up to be half-citizens ... I do see tremendous improvement. "If you travel abroad, you really do appreciate - not in an arrogant or chauvinistic way -- what a remarkable place America is. I can see why America is a beacon for people around the world." Her career as a Sovietologist almost didn't happen. She'd been a music major until her junior year at the University of Denver, planning to become a concert pianist. But one day, when an adviser was talking about the great musician she would become, she had an epiphany - realizing it just wasn't in her. "I started looking around for a major, and I needed one that I could finish quick," she remembers. "I liked politics. I wasn't quite clear on what 'political science' was, but it sounded interesting." She graduated cum laude at age 19. Her principal inspiration there was the late Joseph Korbel, a Czechoslovakian-born author and diplomat who was ambassador to Yugoslavia at the time of the Communist coup in 1948. Korbel fled to freedom, and Rice "was 50 moved and intrigued by the personalization of that experience. The story of leaving everything, making that choice, his foresight in seeing what was going to happen to Czechoslovakia -- he brought politics and history alive for me." Korbel also had "an encyclopedic knowledge" of Russian and Eastern European affairs, and Rice found that the Soviet Union "just held my attention like nothing else had." LEXIS® NEXIS® LEXIS® NEXIS Services of Mead Data Central PAGE 6 (c) 1989 The Washington Post, March 17, 1989 She read "Darkness at Noon" and her interest deepened. "I think it's the mystery of the system. I've always been attracted to things that were hard to divine, where you had to be part detective, and it was something of a puzzle. I like mystery in stories, and when you're studying the Soviet Union, you're operating a lot in the dark." She liked the Russian language, too - its musicality and complexity, the fact that "you can communicate a much wider range of nuance and emotion than in English." Her father remembers how German, French and Spanish were all dull for her, "but as soon as she got into Russian she loved it and it became a second language immediately." After Korbel died in 1977, Rice took a seminar at Denver on security issues in Western Europe from Catherine Kelleher, now head of the Center for International Security Studies at the University of Maryland. Kelleher "captured my imagination because she was 50 articulate and clear. It's what I try to do in my own teaching - communicate your own sense of excitement, that you're reading the material because you like it." Her likes are reflected in her recreational reading, which has a strong focus on World War II and other conflicts -- "what great general made what mistake." Under Kelleher's guidance, Rice decided to combine her interests in the Soviet Union and security problems, and began studying the Soviet military. Although her initial interest was on the "soft side" -- civilian-military politics -- she soon sharpened her focus. "I quickly realized," she says, "that it was hard to understand those things without understanding the 'hard' side -- doctrine, strategy and force posture -- and I got to like military-technical details -- ranges and characteristics of missiles, the tactics as well as the strategy of warfare, the types and uses of different kinds of aircraft, the significance of throw-weights." "She's very respected as a scholar," says Kelleher today. "She has enormous poise and this ability to move very quickly into a new area and to make it her own." Within a few years, Rice was producing what one academic calls "path-breaking work" on the Soviet military, in particular its organization and the subtleties of the political alliances and infighting among its general officers. Her book, "Uncertain Allegiance: The Soviet Union and the Czechoslovak Army," and scholarly articles such as "The Problem of Elite Cohesion in the Warsaw Pact" and "The Military-Technical Revolution and the General Staff in the Soviet Union" have won her a reputation as someone uniquely positioned to evaluate Soviet progress - or lack of it -- in implementing Gorbachev's announced changes in military posture. After getting her PhD from Denver in 1981, Rice signed on with Stanford as an assistant professor and became a popular lecturer whose classes were often oversubscribed. She also began moving in the fast lane with other academics who tend to rotate in and out of government, making connections at the Hoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace, the Council on Foreign Relations, the Aspen Institute and elsewhere. LEXIS® NEXIS® LEXIS® NEXIS Services of Mead Data Central PAGE 7 (c) 1989 The Washington Post, March 17, 1989 One of her new friends was Scowcroft, a national security specialist who had advised presidents Ford, Nixon, Carter and Reagan and who had become codirector of the Aspen Strategy Group, a prestigious 20-member think tank that Rice was invited to join. She quickly became known, and admired. If conservatives are apprehensive about her - and they are -- it's because she's moved in more moderate circles. "Aspen is liberal to moderate," says one conservative political analyst. "She and Scowcroft, they're happy with the international security people at Harvard, at Rand. There's a feeling she's not part of the conservative network." Rice is regarded by knowledgeable Sovietologists as a cool-headed analyst rather than a "hard-liner" or "soft-liner," terms that tend to fuzz in the era of missile deals and glasnost. "The great division now," says Hoover's Robert Conquest, himself considered to be about as hard-line as you can get, "is between those who have a reasonable understanding of the motivations of the Soviets and those who don't." Helmut Sonnenfeldt of the Brookings Institution, one of the giants in the field and Rice's tennis buddy at many a far-flung seminar site, thinks she's "on the conservative side in judging Soviet behavior. She doesn't seem to have illusions about the Soviets. On the other hand, she's open to acknowledging changes based on her study of the facts. I don't think she's particularly ideological, 50 she fits into the general pattern of this administration." Peter Reddaway, a professor of political science at George Washington University and an expert on Soviet politics, puts it this way: "She hasn't suffered from Gorbophoria, which is an occupational danger among Sovietologists." When George Bush ran for president, Rice worked occasionally in his campaign critiquing position papers on foreign policy, and she spent a good deal of time working in the successful congressional campaign of Stanford law professor Tom Campbell, also a Republican. Rice has what she calls "an acute sense of the dangers of being isolated in one party in a strong two-party system," and wants to help the Republicans become "a party with a heart" in civil rights matters. But she notes that "it has to be done on both sides -- black America has to be ready to listen." She's not interested in running for office herself, however. When Republican kingmakers in Palo Alto pressed her to run for Congress in 1986, she decided that, as a "strong executive-prerogatives person," she'd feel uncomfortable in Congress. So when Bush was elected, Rice was ready. Scowcroft called, and she said yes. "It wasn't an easy decision," she says, "because I really loved what I was doing as a teacher and I was very happy in California, but I wanted to work for him at what I think is a very critical time." Actually, she had her choice of jobs in the new administration. LEXIS® NEXIS® LEXIS® NEXIS® Services of Mead Data Central PAGE 8 (c) 1989 The Washington Post, March 17, 1989 During a whirlwind visit here in January she saw Scowcroft and was courted by Secretary of State James A. Baker III and then defense secretary-designate John Tower. She put a deposit on an apartment in Northwest Washington, returned to Stanford to pack, and started at the NSC early last month. "I'm just overwhelmed ... I'm actually buried!" she pronounces cheerfully by phone from her new digs in the West Wing of the White House. = Right in the middle of a staff meeting the phone rang and my boss said, Condi, it's your mover, he's at a truck stop in Houston. If A colleague took her to the president's diplomatic reception her first week in town. She loves the vitality, the politics, the people in fast-track Washington. But the city's murders, the drugs, the torment of young street kids -- these all horrify her. "An educator, that's what I've been," she says. "The answers lie in going back to first principles with our kids." She doesn't come to Washington pretending to fully understand the momentous changes taking place in East-West relations. "I think the Soviets are in a lot of uncharted territory, too," she says. "One thing that's clear about the leadership is that it wants the Soviet Union to be as powerful as it possibly can. What's interesting for us is that Gorbachev is very adroit at extending influence through mechanisms that we're not accustomed to seeing." She's ready for him: "I am temperamentally conservative, meaning I'm cautious. You don't start unraveling any of the principal strengths of the United States that have gotten us to this point." As for sexism, she'll undoubtedly continue to WOW roomfuls of men. "I was giving a briefing for the Air Force planners last year in the Pentagon - one- and two-star generals from all over the country," she recalls, her smile broadening, "and I suddenly looked out at them and thought, 'You know, this is really strange, I am the only woman in this room. = She laughs. "Then I thought, 'Well, that's life!' = GRAPHIC: PHOTO, SOVIETOLOGIST CONDOLEEZZA RICE READING PRAVDA IN HER WEST WING OFFICE YESTERDAY. LUCIAN PERKINS; PHOTO TYPE: NATIONAL NEWS, BIOGRAPHY SUBJECT: APPOINTMENTS; APPOINTED GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS; BLACK ORGANIZATION: NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL LEXIS® NEXIS® LEXIS® NEXIS® Services of Mead Data Central PAGE 9 (c) 1989 The Washington Post, March 17, 1989 NAMED-PERSONS: CONDOLEEZZA RICE ENHANCEMENT: AGE LEXIS® ® NEXIS® ® LEXIS® NEXIS® ® rch 1990 NEW YORK POST page 21 BEWARE A SOVIET COLLAPSE The crisis in the Soviet BY HENRY A. economy is by now familiar, Deprived of the instru- KISSINGER and so are the necessary ments of state power, East solutions. Yet no centrally European Communist par- T HAT the crisis of Soviet planned economy has ever ties, not designed for demo- communism has ended managed the transition to cratic contest, are disinte- the Cold War is by now market economics. grating at the first whiff of axiomatic, but what kind of The Soviet Union has so far open politics. world is to follow is far from taken only the most tentative Because the countries in clear. steps in the direction of price Eastern Europe had the ad- The dominant view in the reform and the ending of vantage of a national tradi- West seems to be that the up- subsidies, two preconditions tion, the collapse of unpopu- heavals in the communist for the establishment of lar Communist parties world have been caused by market economics. China spurred political cohesion. and must be managed by came closest to taking these But disintegration of the Mikhail S. Gorbachev. The steps but suffered the catas- Communist Party of the presumed conversion of the trophe of Tiananmen Square Soviet Union is unlikely to West's erstwhile adversaries largely because economic re- have the same result. to pluralism and market eco- form outgrew the Chinese For the Soviet Union is an nomics is believed by many political institutions' toler- empire, not a national state. to have ended not only the ance for it. Only slightly more than half Cold War but history itself. To avoid this outcome, its population is Russian; Such views will leave the Gorbachev is giving top pri- glasnost has not produced democracies - at the mo- ority to political reform. even the hint of an all-Soviet ment of their greatest He is in a better position non-Communist party. triumph - dangerously ir- than anyone to gauge two The real political contests relevant in the emerging heretofore insuperable politi- are being waged inside the new world. cal obstacles, which are that Politburo and inside the con- For the deeper the up- the Communist Party is in- stituent republics. Glasnost heaval of the old order, the stitutionally committed to tempts the Communist Par- more urgent is the task of central planning, and that ty in the various republics to constructing a new one. the longer a communist sys- become independent of Mos- And in the end, the out- tem governs, the more cow, a process accelerated come of Gorbachev's revolu- surely it deprives its leader- by opposing non-Communist tion is far from clear; it may ship of the moral authority produce, rather than a linear to ask sacrifices of its people. parties nationalistic. even more stridently progression toward democ- racy, chaos, the replacement NO Soviet leader has ever re- of one-party rule by one-man GORBACHEV has shown tired voluntarily. Nor has the rule and repression, or all breathtaking skill in neutral- reputation of any Soviet three in succession. izing potential opposition. leader other than Lenin sur- But it remains to be seen vived his own death. A soci- THE West diminishes both whether it is possible to Gorbachev and itself by giv- ety incapable of generating carry out a program of re- heroes or even continuity is ing him all the credit for form on the basis of the dis- also not in a position to de- what is happening in the array of the opposition. mand sacrifice. communist world. Doing somersaults on a Gorbachev's political re- Gorbachev's policies did high wire inspires more awe forms seek to weaken the than a sense of direction. I not arise from a blinding resistance of the communist flash of insight; like all seri- believe - unhappily - that bureaucracy by giving him a the least likely outcome is ous political leaders, he has popular legitimacy. But in had to respond to necessity. the linear evolution to plural- Gorbachev is a remarkable Eastern Europe opening up istic democracy and market the Communist Party has economics on which the personality who deserves proved to be its death knell. great credit for. acting coura- West places so much hope. Democracy requires a be- The relative pluralism now geously to overcome the lief that the contest of ideas crisis of his society. But it is emerging in the Soviet Union will produce something close the steadfastness of the may have as its ultimate re- to the truth. democracies in resisting sult a virulent nationalism in By contrast, communists, communist expansionism the constituent republics regarding themselves as the over the course of four de- and, on the all-Soviet level, cades that created the inter- the replacement of one-party national environment in rule by one-man rule, in ef- which he finds himself. fect making Gorbachev the czar. And, internally, three real- West must ities have driven the changes Once in the possession of in the Soviet Union: the col- allow Moscow the trappings of state power, lapse of the economy; the dif- his course, and even more ficulty that mature commu- time to get that of his successor, be- nist systems have in achiev- comes unpredictable. It ing political legitimacy, and its domestic could be stagnation, chaos and repression. the nationalities problem. Like the popular Russian house in order There is a need to consider dolls, each of these is en- more deeply Gorbachev's role and the West's relation- sconced within the other. Gorbachev's dilemma is that ship to him. History will al- repositories of historical the ideal solution for each ways remember him for truth, consider the very idea having stood aside while one is to a considerable ex- of compromise a bourgeois Eastern Europe freed itself tent incompatible with the evasion that deflects them best solution for the others. and for having started the from seizing and holding transformation of the Soviet power. state. page 38 of 49 NEW YORK POST page rch 1990 , If the Soviet Union contin- Russia was the driving ues to reduce the percentage force first behind the Holy All this must be accom- of its gross national product Alliance, among Russia, plished while keeping in devoted to defense and con- Prussia and Austria in 1815, mind a diametrically oppo- tinues its retreat from far- and then behind Pan-Slav- site danger to the peace of flung outposts such as Cuba, ism, in both cases claiming the world: the possibility of a assistance in speeding the rights of intervention long breakup of the Soviet state. supply of consumer goods before the Brezhnev Doc. The West can have no more and technical help as trine arrived on the scene. of an interest in the disinte- sketched by Secretary of It may turn out to be one of gration of the Soviet Union State James A. Baker and history's jokes that the suc- than in its expansion. proposed by the Czechoslo- I would except the Baltic vakian President Vaclav cessors of Lenin will end up holding the Russian state to- republics. Their annexation, Havel is surely appropriate. gether by the practices of the never having been recog- But in the end Gorbachev's heirs of Peter the Great. nized by the West in the hey- most intractable problems The nationalism of the day of Soviet power, cannot will be beyond the reach of smaller Soviet republics has now be accepted in the outside powers. Like all revo- already stimulated a viru- period of glasnost and pere- lutionaries, Gorbachev could stroika. lent counterpart in the Rus- well be consumed by the pro- sian Republic itself, which But for the rest, the West contains more than half the must take great care to cess he has started. Gearing Western policies population. But Russian na- avoid steps with unforesee- tionalism has always been able consequences. largely to the desire to "help" repressive and expansionist. The collapse of authority in Gorbachev would create three points of vulnerability If Gorbachev or his succes- a country that possesses tens for the West: sors choose or are driven to of thousands of nuclear wea- that course they will almost pons and scores of nuclear- It would tempt Gorba- surely collide with the power plants must be of chev to turn his tenure into human-rights conviction of greatest concern to all hu- the principal quid pro quo of diplomacy. the democracies. This in manity. The problem is SO terrify- It would create paralysis ing and so contrary to tradi- in the democracies if he is tional notions of sovereignty engulfed by the conse- that it has received no sys- quences of his own achieve- ments. The dangers tematic attention and re- quires cogent study. It would damage the of failure: The nuclear problem aside, credibility of leaders who the breakup of the Soviet have staked too much on a A return to Union would be bound to pro- single Soviet personality, however meritorious. duce an extraordinary cycle repression of violence. Like a movie run The most worrisome out- in reverse. it could play back comes of the crisis of com- at home, a brutal two centuries and in munism are two sides of the the end draw in all surround- same coin: on the one hand, a aggression ing countries whose competi- return to traditional Great Russian repression of the na- tion provided the temptation abroad for Soviet expansion in the tionalities; on the other, the first place. disintegration of the Russian empire built up in the 400 years since Ivan the Terri- turn will be perceived in TO be sure,-if-Moscow is una- ble. Moscow as a threat to the ble to preserve the Russian A nationalistic Russia cohesion of the state, rekind- state, neither Washington ling distrust and tension. nor the other democracies could in time resume the are in a position to do so. pressures to which imperial Russia subjected all contigu- THE challenge to the foreign But the West can practice ous areas in Europe and Asia policy of the democracies is circumspection, though ex- for more than 200 years. to use the hiatus in which perience must have taught A disintegrating Russia Moscow has to give priority Moscow that there is a level could tempt neighboring to its domestic problems and of repression which jeopard- put in place a security sys- izes the democracies domes- countries to restore historic tem seeking to transcend the tic support for a policy of de- ties with their kinsmen or tente. simply to carve up the Soviet historic Russian quest for absolute security, which has Coming to grips with such Union on the basis of tradi- tional expansionism. meant absolute insecurity contradictory prospects will force America to examine The world has suffered so for everyone elsé. much at the hands of com- In Europe such a security categories of thought it has munist ideology that it has system should return Soviet historically rejected: to act not with missionary zeal but nearly forgotten how uncom- fortable a neighbor czarist armies to national territory as custodian of an equilibri- as quickly as possible. Russia had been. um, and to adjust policies to The intricate balance of the fluctuating requirements Often invaded across a flat arms-control negotiations of a balance of power rather plain without natural fron- along existing military di- than to fixed legal principles tiers, Russia, it is under- viding lines obscures the real or a doc'rine of collective se- standable, grew to identify problem of establishing a curity. security with pushing out its frontiers as far as possible. line. realistic political dividing In that sense, the ultimate But however understand- challenge to U.S. foreign But once Soviet troops are policy is philosophical. able, it caused the Russian empire throughout its his- returned to Soviet territory such a system must then Henry A. Kissinger's anal- tory to seek to dismantle also strive for an arrange- yses of world events appear every power center within its ment that genuinely reduces monthly in The Post. reach: Poland, Turkey, Sweden, the Austro-Hungar- the Soviet fears of military ian empire, China, India. attack from Europe. Moreover, Russian foreign policy has had a strong mis- sionary streak. 39 of 49 nage Center for Strategic & International Studies Conference The 1990s: Critical Change 1 April 1989 Robert M. Gates Deputy Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs Gorbachev and Critical Change in the Soviet Union: Implications for the West It is an honor to speak to this distinguished audience examining critical change in the 1990s. I can think of no more appropriate or timely topic, for we are in a truly extraordinary period. Europe is moving steadily toward greater economic and political integration in 1992. Authoritarian governments from the Philippines and the Republic of Korea in the East to Latin America in the West are giving way to democracy. China is in the midst of a momentous reform program, and, in the Soviet Union, a revolution from above has been launched, albeit with no assurance it will succeed. Capitalism and democracy are ascendant; economic statism and political despotism are in retreat. 1 There has been a remarkable change in the relationship between the United States and the Soviet Union over the past two years, including the signing of the Treaty on Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces. The Soviets have announced a first and important step toward reducing their overwhelming conventional force advantage in Europe. Conventional force reduction negotiations opened last month and negotiations on strategic force reductions will resume in the near future. A Sino-Soviet Summit is scheduled for mid-May. The Soviets have withdrawn from Afghanistan, the Vietnamese may be leaving Cambodia, and a settlement getting the Cubans and South Africans out of Angola has been negotiated. Exhausted, Iraq and Iran have agreed to and are, in the main, observing a ceasefire. Structural change is reshaping international economic relationships in dramatic ways. Accordingly, critical change in the 1990s is a most appropriate subject. It certainly is a subject with which the Bush Administration has been preoccupied for the last two months. Resisting the siren song of the quick fix and the big headline, we actually are trying to think about the 1990s -- to absorb and understand the many 2 changes that have taken place in recent years, those that are still underway, and those that are only just above the horizon of the future. Our task, then, is to devise policies that look to the end of the century and beyond. We are working to develop economic, political, military and arms control strategies that are grounded in reality and yet build upon opportunities for constructive, stabilizing change. We see opportunities to expand freedom, to strengthen both peace and security at lower levels of military forces, to enhance economic growth and extend it, and to promote international cooperation on such common problems as terrorism, drugs, the environment, and the spread of chemical and biological weapons and the means to deliver them. Seizing such opportunities requires preparation and planning. Too often the energies and time of senior officials are consumed day in and day out by the crisis of the moment -- a diplomatic demarche, a newspaper story, a Congressional hearing, a bureaucratic dispute or a multitude of other short-term preoccupations. We in government, as a rule, spend too little time thinking about and planning for the future. We spend too little time reflecting on history and experience; we neglect strategy for tactics. 3 The Bush Administration is trying to resist this. Accordingly, our reviews of the international setting and our policies are focused on the development of long range strategy. Failure to take stock, to understand, to look ahead, and to plan would ensure failure to seize the opportunities we see now and discern in the future. This brings me to the Soviet Union. On this subject, more than on any other, there has been speculation about the views of the new administration and directions the President will take. We have heard such nuanced and sophisticated questions as "Should we help Gorbachev" -- and we have resisted the temptation of monosyllabic answers. I expect our Soviet review to be complete very soon. This afternoon, rather than focus prematurely on possible outcomes or specific policies, I want to share with you the framework within which we approach the Soviet-American relationship. We do live in a time of dramatic change -- change that now has spread to the Soviet Union. The failure of a system of government -- economic, political, social and moral failure .. is a powerful inducement to dramatic departures from the past, to 4 unprecedented distancing from many of the precepts that have guided the system for so long. It is the self-evident failure of the Soviet system, and the absolute imperative to change it, that form Gorbachev's mandate, are his primary sources of political support, shape his radicalism, and cause us all to wonder if the wheel of history is at last about to turn for that vast empire. Regardless of the substantial odds against him, we take seriously Gorbachev's determination to modernize the Soviet economy. We applaud the measures he has taken to increase openness in the press, to ease restrictions on religion, to take the first faltering steps toward democratization, and to contribute constructively to settling certain international disputes. We welcome his commitment to reduce Soviet conventional forces and to pursue a further relaxation of tensions and arms control. These are all positive steps, and they have led to widespread hope and optimism. We, too, are hopeful. At the same time, long term policy must not be based on hopes, but on past experience, present realities and future probabilities -- as well as possibilities. Just as I believe we must try to look well into to the future in developing foreign policy, I also advocate looking to the past -- examining the historical record for 5 insights pertinent to the future. This is especially true with respect to the Soviet Union, where Western views too often are shaped by the latest leadership change, pronouncement or enticing proposal. Looking back over one's shoulder with respect to the USSR is not for the faint hearted. What we see, above all, is a system of rule that over a seventy year period has brought to the peoples of the old Russian empire suffering on a scale previously unknown in human history. Mentioning this often elicits a reaction similar to a display of bad manners at a dinner party or a dismissive gesture suggesting the irrelevance of this past to our future. Commonly, the horrors of Soviet history are blamed on Stalin, both within and outside of the Soviet Union. Yet, I believe it essential for us today to understand that this record is not confined to the Stalin era alone, was not the doing of a single demented leader, but covers the entirety of Soviet history, and is the product of the very nature of the system itself. Soviet history did not begin in the Spring of 1985. A brief reminder of the record and of the cycles in that record are useful, even for an audience as well informed as this one. 6 -- Under Lenin, 10 million people were killed in the civil war from 1918 to 1920, and another 5 million died in the War Communism famine of 1921-22. In 1921, in the midst of catastrophe, Lenin set a precedent for his successors by retreating, falling back to tried and true methods of economic growth -- private markets, small private business, denationalization, and legalization of private trade. By 1923, 83 percent of retail trade had been privatized. Whether the New Economic Policy and associated measures would have endured had Lenin lived is one of those finally unanswerable questions. Regardless, Lenin himself admitted, "We showed quite clearly that we cannot run the economy." Truer and more prophetic words were never spoken. While economic policy might have turned out rather differently, I believe Lenin contemplated no such flexibility in terms of politics -- the controlling monopoly of the Communist party. Meanwhile, in another precedent important for the future, as early as 1920-21, facing disastrous internal problems, Lenin turned to the West for help, signing trade treaties with Britain, 7 Norway, Italy and Sweden and obtaining a major loan from France. By 1921, the American Relief Administration was feeding nearly 10 million Soviet citizens. -- Under Stalin, another 14 million people died from 1928 to 1937 -- the war against the peasants. Countless more were killed in the Great Terror, as Stalin first purged the Party and then the military to eliminate opposition, both real and imagined. By the late 1930s, some 12 million people were in forced labor camps. Constant terror and periodic purges were characteristic of the Soviet regime to the very end of Stalin's life in 1953. At the same time, Stalin eagerly and successfully sought foreign assistance for the Soviet regime from the United States, Britain, Germany, Italy and France. The majority of the largest Soviet power plants before the war were built by the British firm Metropolitan-Vickers; western companies designed, built and equipped the industrial complexes at Magnitogorsk and Kuznetsk as well as the Urals Machine Works, and many more. The great Dnepr dam was built by the firm of Colonel Hugh 8 Cooper, an American hydraulic engineer. And, yet, during the period before the war the Soviet Union intervened in the Spanish Civil War, invaded Finland, and with Hitler's blessing seized the Baltic States and carved up Poland. I need hardly mention Soviet expansionism in Europe, Southwest Asia and East Asia in the immediate post-war period. -- Khrushchev, as described by the emigre historians Heller and Nekrich, demonstrated that the system could forego mass terror without altering the Stalinist socialist state. This more selective terror stopped at the doors of the Central Committee as Khrushchev released millions from Stalin's camps but soon began refilling them. The means of intimidation became more sophisticated with the use of psychiatric incarcerations and other punishments. Domestic reform again became the order of the day as Khrushchev moved to decentralize and modernize the economy, made management more flexible and eased pressures on the rural population. Under Khrushchev, the Soviet authorities declared their intention to increase 9 production of consumer goods and food. They again turned to private plots in agriculture and espoused the need for material relief of the people. He launched an anti-corruption campaign, sought to have senior party officials elected by secret ballot to limited terms of office, and tried to limit the privileges of senior officials. And in 1962, the Liberman economic reforms were begun with the central theme that profitability would be the main criterion for gauging the economic performance of enterprises. Remember the "Thaw" of the 1950s -- the first and last time to this day that a work of Alexander Solzenitsyn has been published in the USSR? A new openness emerged as the central newspapers published thousands of complaints about the arbitrariness of local leaders and demands for legality. And, of course, Khrushchev exposed many of the crimes of the Stalin period. Meanwhile the new Soviet leaders moved immediately to normalize relations -- to establish a detente -- with the United States and the West. The Korean Armistice was signed in July 10 1953, a cease fire was quickly agreed in Indochina and in 1955, Soviet forces left Austria. Eisenhower and Khrushchev met in Geneva and the Soviet leader visited the United States. Khrushchev unilaterally reduced conventional military forces by 1.8 million men between 1955 and 1957. There was much talk of the end of the cold war. Yet, during this period the Soviets crushed revolts in East Germany and Hungary, built and deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles for the first time, sent some of those missiles to Cuba, precipitated several dangerous crises in Berlin and built the Berlin Wall. -- The popular impression of the Brezhnev period, reinforced by Gorbachev, is one of doddering old men presiding ineffectively and incompetently over a stagnating economy while pursuing detente and arms control with the West. This is Western historical amnesia and Soviet selectivity, if not disinformation. In 1965, the Soviet leaders already knew their economy was in serious difficulty. They ratified many of Khrushchev's economic reforms, with the Liberman concepts at the core. The leadership turned again to the law of supply and demand, 11 material incentives and broad autonomy. Premier Kosygin tried to implement significant reforms, but plainly Brezhnev and the rest of the Politburo had little interest in paying any political, economic or social price to pursue reform. Then, as now, they tried to reconcile the irreconcilable: to enlarge the rights of individual enterprises and also restore the power of the central economic ministries. By the late sixties, twin crises enveloped the USSR -- a political crisis reflecting the nationalities problem, and an economic crisis as growth decreased sharply. Brezhnev needed a breathing spell and, as so often in Soviet history, outside assistance. The West was happy to oblige. Relationships with Europe and the United States blossomed. Tensions relaxed, warmer relationships were cultivated with European countries, the Quadripartite Treaty on Berlin was concluded, the first SALT Treaty and many narrower technical agreements were signed with the US, and Western trade, credits and technology flowed. Yet, consider what Brezhnev was up to elsewhere during this 12 same period. His was the regime that invaded Czechoslovakia in 1968 and crushed the Prague Spring. The Western reaction? President Johnson said, "We hope -- and we shall strive -- to make this setback a temporary one." The then French Foreign Minister said it was "an unpleasant incident along the road." The next year, the Soviets attacked China along the Ussuri River and dropped heavy hints, including in Washington, that a nuclear attack against China was under consideration. Recklessly or intentionally, the Soviets helped provoke the 1967 Middle East War. In the mid-1970s, they supported Cuban surrogate forces in Angola and Ethiopia. The same leaders toasted in the West provided the wherewithal for North Vietnam's final conquest of the South, underwrote the Sandinista Revolution in Nicaragua, and sold $12 billion worth of weapons to Libya. In 1979, Brezhnev ordered the invasion of Afghanistan. In 1980-81, this leadership forced the imposition of martial law in Poland and the suppression of Solidarity. And, all of this took place against the backdrop of the greatest peacetime military buildup in history. We also have too easily forgotten the wave of internal 13 repression inside the Soviet Union during this period. In 1965, there were mass arrests of those involved in nationalist movements in the Ukraine, Lithuania and the Transcaucasus. The first show trials since Stalin convicted Sinyavsky and Daniel in 1966 for slandering the Soviet state. Political trials all over the USSR followed -- in Moscow, Leningrad, Kiev, Lvov, Gorky, Riga, Tashkent and Omsk. Remember Aleksandr Ginzburg, Pavel Litvinov, Yuri Galanskov and all the others? By the late 1970s, the KGB had destroyed the dissident and human rights movements. : Finally, Andropov, as head of the KGB architect of the suppression of dissent. His contribution as General Secretary to solving the Soviet crisis? Tighter discipline, a call to arms against "consumer instincts," squeezing the fat out of the economy - but not a single substantial reform. During his fifteen months in the top job, we saw wide scale arrests of dissidents, Baptists, Jews and many others. I offer this thumbnail sketch of Soviet history to underscore that our view of the Soviet Union cannot be based on the 14 personality of one or another leader, but must be based on the nature of the Soviet system itself. We face a deeply entrenched philosophy and system of government that to date has depended upon repression at home and promoted aggression beyond its borders. It is the Soviet system itself, and the 70 year continuity we see from leader to leader, from Lenin to Chernenko, and even Gorbachev, that shapes our view of the USSR. Gorbachev is challenging some aspects of this system but even he acknowledges he has not yet significantly changed it. We cannot ignore Soviet history or the apparent strength and durability of the system that produced it. Nor can we ignore the cyclical turn to reform, "detente" and foreign assistance each time the system has hovered on the brink of catastrophe or fallen into it. Le Monde has said, "One cannot minimize the scope of this reform. By every available measure, it is without doubt of the first importance It will have major consequences if it runs its course. Gradually, the entire Soviet system of planning will be overturned." Regrettably, those words were published in December 1964. In important respects, Gorbachev has made quite clear he has 15 no intention of dismantling fundamental features of the system. There will be no political party but the Communist Party, as demonstrated by the prompt crushing of the Democratic Union. The economy is, and will remain, governed by political decisions. Rights are granted by the Party to the people. Glasnost is a grant, possibly temporary, from Gorbachev to the Soviet people suited to his own political needs and purposes. Indeed, it seems clear that Gorbachev turned to political reform only because he concluded that it had become necessary to achieve his economic objectives. Moreover, we cannot make long-term decisions and devise strategies affecting freedom and the future that depend on the continued political (or even physical) survival of one man. Indeed, not a leader in the West goes to bed unaware that he or she could wake up to a new Soviet counterpart. Unlike any Western or other modern state, politics at the highest level in the Kremlin today are as hidden from public view as in generations past. Much has changed, but more that is fundamental remains the same. In sum, we proceed with care and prudence because we are dealing with a system where the roots of oppression, aggression, 16 and secrecy are deep, because for seventy years we repeatedly have seen a system in crisis proclaim reform and turn to the West for help while the essential features of that system at the end of the day remained unchanged. Prudence, however, is not synonymous with inaction. Nor is wariness to be equated with pessimism and cynicism. It would be the worst sort of myopia not to recognize that profound changes are underway in the Soviet Union. There is a degree of openness and vigor of political debate in the USSR unknown since the days of the first (or February) revolution in 1917. Indeed, we need only reflect on the openness of debate at the Party Conference last summer or the elections this last week. (Who could not be amazed at the defeat of the Leningrad Party Chief, who ran unopposed, or the demonstration of support for Boris Yeltsin?) In a number of areas -- Afghanistan, Angola, Cambodia, conventional force reductions, various aspects of arms control, China -- we are seeing the Soviets change their policies, abandon old positions, and remove themselves from longstanding dead-ends. We do see "new thinking" in some areas, although in others -- as in Central America and the Middle East -- the old ways of thinking and behavior remain. 17 We are generally encouraged by what we see. Maybe this time things will be different. The changes plainly offer opportunities -- opportunities for further reducing tensions, for enhancing strategic stability, for promoting human rights and democracy, for arms control, and for cooperation on transnational issues such as the environment, narcotics trafficking, and stopping the proliferation of chemical, biological and nuclear weapons. Ironically, given Gorbachev's priorities, the pace of some aspects of political change is far outstripping economic modernization and performance. Indeed, what Gorbachev has set in motion represents a political earthquake. He is pulling all of the levers of change in a society and culture that historically has resisted change -- and where change usually has been violent and wrenching. He is a figure of enormous historical importance. The forces he has unleashed are powerful but so are the people and institutions he has antagonized -- thus setting in motion a tremendous power struggle and purge no less dramatic for the absence of show trials and terror. The outcome is by no means clear, and prolonged turbulence seems certain. 18 Gorbachev seeks a system in which some -- though certainly not all -- elements of the Stalinist economic structure and bureaucracy are eliminated thus opening the way to greater flexibility and innovation and thereby to modernization and improved performance. However, elections notwithstanding, Gorbachev's Leninism still means the continued political monopoly of the Communist Party. Gorbachev's dictatorship of the Communist Party remains untouched and untouchable. He seeks still a system based on the same Leninist political principles that guided his predecessors. As he said in 1987, "We will not retreat an inch from the path of socialism, of Marxism-Leninism." Westerners for centuries have hoped repeatedly that Russian economic modernization and political reform -- even revolution - signaled an end to despotism. Repeatedly since 1917, the West has hoped that domestic changes in the USSR would lead to changes in Communist coercive rule at home and aggressiveness abroad. These hopes, dashed time and again, have been revived by Gorbachev's radical domestic agenda, innovative foreign policy and personal style. 19 Enduring characteristics of Soviet governance at home and policy abroad make it clear that -- while the changes underway offer opportunities for a relaxation of tensions and for cooperation in many areas -- Gorbachev intends improved Soviet economic performance, greater political vitality at home, and more dynamic diplomacy to make the USSR a more competitive and stronger adversary in the years ahead. What we seek is a Soviet Union that is pluralistic internally, non-interventionist externally, observes basic human rights, contributes to international stability and tranquility, and a Soviet Union where these changes are more than an edict from the top and are independent of the views, power and durability of a single individual. We can hope for such change but all of Russian and Soviet history tells us to be skeptical and cautious. We cannot -- and should not -- close our eyes to momentous developments in the USSR. But we should not make concessions based on hope and popular enthusiasms in the West or attractive personalities in the USSR. We should, however, take advantage of 20 opportunities where the terms are favorable to us, where we can solve problems to mutual advantage, or where we can bring about desirable changes in Soviet policies -- whether to promote human rights, freer emigration, solutions to Soviet generated problems such as Afghanistan, reduce the military threat or even to expand business ties (if there is no transfer of sensitive technology). Above all, we must establish realistic criteria by which we can judge in the coming months and years whether political or economic change in the Soviet Union genuinely is reshaping the foundations of the system -- or whether the historically oppressive structure of the Soviet Union, including the instruments of central control and repression, endures discreetly in the shadows, available at the beckon of Gorbachev's successor, or even for Gorbachev. Gorbachev has spoken of a European home, from the Atlantic to the Urals. But "Europe" and "the West" are not just geographic terms. They represent a community and continuity of values, a common historical experience reflected in this year's bicentennial celebration of the French Declaration of the Rights of Man and the inauguration of our First President under the Constitution. The principles set forth in these two documents compared to the central 21 tenets of Leninism still held dear by Gorbachev mark the distance that remains between us. For all the changes underway, the Soviet Union philosophically and politically still embodies the primacy of the State over the individual. Because of this unbridgeable difference in values and beliefs, whether Gorbachev succeeds, fails, or just survives, a still long competition and struggle with the Soviet Union lie before us. Preserving the peace and fostering an enduring relaxation of tensions even as the competition continues depends upon seeing this reality clearly. Keeping this long range perspective -- with keen awareness of perhaps unprecedented opportunities as well as the dangers -- will be an extraordinary challenge for the United States and the Western democracies. 22 Sec. CAVA305 200 2 Hispanic/mostly Mex. Am may 5, 1862 - Puella under Bunto They daincing children - - SAKHAROV a preview of the hurly-burly life that now awaited us. Lusia and I were almost buried under the load of the ALAIN NOGUES-SYGMA first few months in Moscow. I spent time preparing written responses for almost all major interviews. People passed through the house endlessly. Lusia cooked for a whole crowd. Long after midnight, it was not uncommon to find her, despite her heart attacks and her bypasses, mopping the landing-our building is self-service-and me still at work on a statement. Gorbachev: A Cry for Help One subject that came up in every interview was my at- titude toward Gorbachev and perestroika. In 1985, while still confined in Semashko Hospital, I watched one of Gor- bachev's early television appearances, and I told my room- mates, "It looks as if our country's lucky. We've got an in- telligent leader." My initial, positive reaction has remained basically unchanged. Gorbachev, like Khrushchev, is an ex- traordinary personality who has managed to break free of the limits customarily respected by the party bureaucracy. What explains the inconsistencies and half measures of the new course? The main stumbling block is the inertia of a gi- gantic system, the resistance, passive and active, of the in- BATTLING EACH DAY FOR LIFE AND FREEDOM numerable bureaucratic and ideological windbags. Most of them will be out of a job if there is a real perestroika. Gorba- On Feb. 5, 1987, a delegation organized by the U.S. chev has spoken of this bureaucratic resistance in some Council on Foreign Relations came to see me. I stressed speeches, and it sounds like a cry for help. the West's vital interest in having the U.S.S.R. become an But there's more to it than that. The old system, for all open, democratic society. Henry Kissinger posed a blunt its drawbacks, worked. And people had grown used to the question: "Is there a danger that the U.S.S.R. will first ef- old system, which at least guaranteed a certain minimal fect a democratic transformation, accelerating its scientific standard of living. Who knows what the new one will bring? and technological progress and improving its economy, And lastly, Gorbachev and his close associates themselves and then revert to expansionist policies and pose an even may still not be completely free of the prejudices and dog- greater threat to peace?" mas of the system they wish to reform. I replied that what people should fear is not the develop- Restructuring the command-type economic system in ment of an open, stable society with a powerful peacetime our country is an extremely complex matter. Without mar- economy in the U.S.S.R. but a disruption of the world's equi- ket relations and elements of competition, we are bound to librium and the single-minded military buildup of an internal- see serious shortages, inflation and other negative phe- ly closed and externally expansionist society. I believe the nomena. Our country is already experiencing economic West should actively support the process of perestroika, coop- difficulties; everywhere, food and other necessities are in erating with the U.S.S.R. on disarmament and on economic, short supply. Another thing troubles me greatly: the zig- scientific and cultural issues. But this support should be given zags on the road to democracy. Gorbachev is trying to gain with eyes wide open, not unconditionally. Opponents of control of the political situation and strengthen his person- perestroika should understand that a retreat from reform al power by compromising with the forces opposed to would mean immediate termination of Western assistance. perestroika instead of relying on democratic reforms. In a futurological article I wrote in 1974, "The World Af- That's extremely dangerous. Only a nationwide swell of ini- ter 50 Years," I concluded, "I hope that mankind will be able tiative can give substance to democracy, and our "chiefs" to put an end to the dangers threatening us and to continue have shown they're not ready for this. its progress while preserving everything that makes us hu- The gradual replacement of key personnel, the coun- man." I would like to conclude this book too with those try's objective need for perestroika, and the fact that "the words. Today, as I approach the eighth decade of my life, my new always beats the old" (to quote Stalin's famous personal aspirations and my entire existence center on my phrase) should all work in Gorbachev's favor. He has four beloved wife, my children and grandchildren, and all those levers he can use to move the country forward: glasnost who are dear to me. (this is proceeding under its own steam); the new person- This volume of memoirs is dedicated to my beloved Lu- nel policies; the new international policies aimed at slow- sia. What matters most is that she and I are together. ing the arms race; and democratization. My positive attitude toward perestroika is not accepted On the night of Dec. 14, 1989, Andrei Sakharov returned by everyone: it especially upsets some dissidents in the to his Moscow apartment from a heated meeting of radical U.S.S.R. and some émigrés in the West. One Russian-lan- parliamentarians where he had called for the formation of an guage newspaper in New York City printed an article with alternative party to oppose the Communists, lay down for a the headline THE PARDONED SLAVE HELPS HIS MASTER, or пар and never awoke. He was 68 when a heart attack felled something of the sort. him. He had been a free man for less than three years. TIME, MAY 21, 1990 63 TOTAL RECALL Schwarzenegger showing his tenacity in a sci-fi fantasy from Tri-Star/Carolco Business $ 50+ million Shooting The Works DICK TRACY Lights! Camera! Money! Hollywood is on a spree! Disney, Beatty and Madonna too dios are lavishing breathtaking sums on ev- tween late May and Labor Day. By JOHN GREENWALD erything from stars to scripts to scenery. The lineup is once again he script called for blizzard scenes Hollywood now spends an average of heavy with sequels and ac- T at a major airport. To film it, the $23.5 million to produce a major movie, up tion flicks. Among them: entire cast and crew of this sum- 40% from 1985. (The Consumer Price In- $ Universal's $40 million mer's Die Hard 2 embarked on a dex rose just 14.5% over the same period.) Back to the Future III; Dis- multimillion-dollar odyssey last December "Studios just keep piling on the cost, think- 30 ney's $30 million Dick Tra- that led them to normally snowy Denver ing that they will get it back somewhere," million cy, starring Warren Beatty and northern Michigan. But relentlessly says Jerome Gold, director of the media and Madonna; Warner mild weather in both places forced 20th and entertainment division of the Ernst & Bros.' $32 million Gremlins 2; and Para- Century Fox to abandon its costly snow Young accounting firm. mount's $45 million Another 48 Hrs. "This chase and shoot the sequel to the 1988 The moguls throw their biggest bucks is the summer of the blockbuster," says Bruce Willis thriller on a Los Angeles at films released during the summer Sidney Ganis, president of the Paramount sound stage. As if that humiliation was not months. "Kids can see three pictures in a Motion Picture Group. "If one or more of enough, the delays and moving expenses week," notes Roger Birnbaum, Fox's presi- them fail, next summer there won't be helped push the film's original $40 million dent of production. "There are no school nearly as many rolling." budget to as high as $60 million. nights." Summer hits accounted for 40% of The cost of such movies largely reflects While the ornery weather may turn Die the record $5 billion that films raked in at the price that studios pay for the handful of Hard 2 into the most expensive film Holly- U.S. box offices last year. Worldwide the- megastars whose presence is expected to wood will release this summer, the episode atrical, TV and video revenues boosted guarantee a hit. The top guns include Tom was merely part of a runaway spending that take to more than $10 billion. In hopes Cruise, who reportedly will earn some $9 spree that has made movies more costly- of luring even larger audiences, studios are million for playing a race-car driver and co- and risky-than ever. With an eye toward spending $30 million or more apiece on as producing Paramount's Days of Thunder. lucrative video and foreign revenues, stu- many as a dozen films set for release be- For reprising his role as Nick Nolte's 64 TIME, MAY 21, 1990 E easy acet 0 Caplets Caplets - 500 phen CAPLETS 500 no mg each mg TYLENOL CAPLETS INEM CAPLES TYLENOL to swallow OU me TYLENOL 500 TYLENOL oor Capits TYLENOL TYLENOL ΓOM TOTAL TOTAL THE YORK MA THE IBUPROFEN IPRC Hospitals use TYLENOL18 ACETAMINOPHEN times more than all ibuprofen brands combined. No one knows more about taking care of pain than hospitals. So, with all the pain relievers available today, what are hospitals using more than ever for everyday pain? TYLENOL. In fact, in a year, hospitals use TYLENOL 285 million more times than all other brands combined. If hospitals use TYLENOL most, shouldn't it be your first choice for-pain? TYLENOL.The pain reliever hospitals use most. Comparison relative to non-prescription pain relievers only. Use only as directed. © McNeil, 1989. © 1990 Freixenet S.A., San Sadurni de Noya, Spain. Freixenet USA, Inc. Sonoma, CA. Freixenet is a registered trademark. 121 PREFER AR FREIXENEI FREIX about TREIX WE SIXENET BRUT FREIN BROT parkling Wine by PARTY LINE Fermented The Produce Freixene Methode eixenet CORDON NEGRO de Champenoise Sant NEGRO ON NE CORDON NEGRO BRUT BY FREIXENET FERMENTED IN THE BOTTLE. METHODE CHAMPENOISE AGED 2 YEARS IN THE CAVE. SAKHAROV patible with the image he wished to convey of a Soviet Union committed to glasnost and perestroika. SERGEI GUNEYEV-NOVOSTI GUNEYEV In February 1986 I wrote a letter to Gorbachev quoting his own words in an interview with the French Communist newspaper L'Humanité: "About political prisoners, we don't have any. Likewise, our citizens are not prosecuted for their beliefs. We don't try people for their opinions." In my letter, I argued that prosecutions under various articles of the criminal code are in fact prosecutions for beliefs, in- cluding religious beliefs. I also mentioned persons con- fined in psychiatric hospitals for political reasons, and oth- ers imprisoned on trumped-up criminal charges. I gave brief accounts of 14 I knew personally-Anatoly Mar- chenko, the writer, headed the list-and called for the un- conditional release of all prisoners of conscience. In early October 1986 I was summoned to the regional Procurator's Office to see U.S.S.R. Deputy Procurator General Vladimir Andreyev "in connection with your statement." But Andreyev evaded the real issues. He told me that all the prisoners on my list had been properly sen- tenced. I told him that I was disappointed in our meeting. I wrote another letter to the General Secretary and mailed it on Oct. 23. I wrote that I'd been banished illegal- ly, without a court decision. I'd never broken the law or dis- IS HE REALLY FREE OF THE SYSTEM? closed state secrets. My wife and I were being held in un- precedented isolation. Her sentence and the slanders "Hello, I'm listening." printed about her in the press were actually attempts to "I received your letter. We've reviewed it and discussed shift responsibility for my actions onto her. I mentioned it. You can return to Moscow. The Decree of the Presidi- our health problems, and I felt it necessary to say that I um of the Supreme Soviet will be rescinded. A decision has would "make no more public statements, apart from ex- also been made about Elena Bonnaire." ceptional cases when, in the words of Tolstoy, 'I cannot re- I broke in: "That's my wife!" It was an emotional reac- main silent.' I concluded, "I hope that you will find it pos- tion, not SO much to his mispronunciation of her name as to sible to end my isolation and my wife's exile." Once I'd sent his tone. off the letter, I forgot about it for the next seven weeks. Gorbachev continued: "You can return to Moscow to- Lusia was twirling the radio dial on Dec. 9. The jam- gether. You have an apartment there. Go back to your pa- ming was intense, but through the crackle we both made triotic work!" out the name Marchenko. For a few moments we thought I said, "Thank you. But I must tell you that a few days ago, he had been released. Since Aug. 4 he had been on a hun- my friend Marchenko was killed in prison. He was the first per- ger strike at Chistopol Prison, demanding better condi- son I mentioned in my letter to you, requesting the release of tions for political prisoners and an end to repression. He prisoners of conscience-people prosecuted for their beliefs." hadn't been allowed visitors for 32 months and had spent Gorbachev: "Yes, I received your letter early this year. long periods in punishment cells. We've released many, and improved the situation of oth- We soon realized that the broadcast was not a report of ers. But there are all sorts of people on your list." Marchenko's release. The evening before, he'd asked for a I said, "Everyone sentenced under those articles has doctor. By the time he was brought to the hospital his con- been sentenced illegally, unjustly. They ought to be freed!" dition was hopeless. A cerebral hemorrhage was listed as Gorbachev: "I don't agree with you." the immediate cause of death. Marchenko was 48. His I said, "I implore you to look one more time at the death ended an era for the human rights movement, which question of releasing people convicted for their beliefs. It's he had helped to shape. a matter of justice. It's vitally important for our country, for Dec. 15, 1986, was the 25th anniversary of my father's international trust, for peace and for you and the success of death. Shortly after 10 p.m. the doorbell rang. A search? your program." Two electricians and a KGB agent entered the apartment. Gorbachev made a noncommittal reply. I said, "Thank They had orders to install a phone. The KGB man said, you again. Goodbye." (Contrary to the demands of proto- "You'll get a call around 10 tomorrow morning." col, I brought the conversation to a close, not Gorbachev. I On Dec. 16 we waited for the call until 3 p.m., when the must have felt under stress and perhaps subconsciously phone rang and I answered. A woman's voice: "Mikhail feared that I might say too much.) Gorbachev had little Sergeyevich will speak with you." choice, SO he said, "Goodbye." "I'm listening." I told Lusia, "It's Gorbachev." She On the morning of Dec. 23 we stepped off the train at opened the door to the hallway, where the usual chatter Moscow's Yaroslavl Station onto a platform teeming with was going on around the policeman on duty, and shouted, reporters. It took me 40 minutes to make my way through "Quiet! Gorbachev's on the phone." There was an imme- the crowd. Hundreds of flashbulbs blinded me and micro- diate silence. phones were continually thrust into my face as I tried to re- "Hello, this is Gorbachev speaking." spond to the barrage of questions. 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That day, Lusia was detained at the Gorky airport on May 2, 1984, they began subcutaneous (into both thighs) and intravenous which ended for 17 months her visits to Moscow, our princi- drips to supplement the forced feedings. Each subcutaneous pal means of contact with the outside world. She was put on feeding took several hours, my legs would swell painfully, trial, convicted in August of "slandering the Soviet system" and I would be unable to walk for a day or two. and sentenced to five years' internal exile, in Gorky. In April 1985, against Lusia's wishes, I conducted a hun- ger strike demanding that she be allowed to go abroad to vis- "You Can Return to Moscow" it her mother, children and grandchildren and to receive medical treatment. I was forcibly confined in Gorky's Se- In March 1985 Mikhail Gorbachev came to power in the mashko Hospital from April 25 and subjected to painful Soviet Union. Though he at first defended the treatment of Sa- forced feeding until July 11, when I decided to end that hun- kharov, he soon decided that keeping him in exile was incom- "Mankind Cannot Do Without Nuclear Power" After the Chernobyl nuclear-re- possibility of another Chernobyl. charges deep underground in seis- actor catastrophe of April 26, 1986, The best way is international legis- mologically active areas and deto- the reports in the Soviet press led lation requiring that all new nuclear nating them to relieve the buildup of me to adopt far too sanguine an ap- reactors be sited deep enough un- tension when strains in the earth's proach. One clue that should have derground so that even a worst-case core approach the critical level. If alerted me to a possible cover-up accident would not discharge radio- this proves feasible, we could control was a mid-May report that several active substances into the atmo- at least the timing of earthquakes; fire fighters had perished; if radia- sphere. Existing aboveground reac- people and property could be evacu- tion levels in the vicinity of the ated in orderly fashion. To preclude Chernobyl plant did not exceed 10 the escape of any radiation, the ex- to 15 milliroentgens an hour, what plosion would probably have to be could have caused their deaths? two or more miles beneath the In fact, the radiation levels pub- earth's surface. lished in the Soviet press were 1% On Feb. 15, 1987, addressing the or less of the true figures. But there Moscow Forum for a Non-Nuclear were other, subjective reasons for World for the Survival of Mankind, my complacency: my preconcep- I had this to say on the peaceful use tions, my mental inertia and sheer of atomic energy: wishful thinking. "Nuclear weapons divide and When Lusia returned from a vis- threaten mankind. But there are it to the West, her information on peaceful uses of nuclear energy that Chernobyl shook me. Czechoslova- should promote the unity of man- kia, Sweden, Poland and Hungary kind. Chernobyl was an example of had demanded an explanation from the tragic interaction of equipment Soviet authorities for the high levels failure and human error. Neverthe- of radiation throughout Europe. less, the aversion people rightly feel Poles were given iodine tablets to for military applications must not speed the elimination of radioactive spill over to the peaceful use of nu- iodine from their systems-which clear energy. Mankind cannot do raised the question of what was be- without nuclear power. We must ing done in the U.S.S.R., where the CHERNOBYL AFTER THE TRAGEDY find a solution to the safety problem level of radioactivity was much that will rule out another Chernobyl greater. In the Ukraine and Belo- tors should be protected by reliable resulting from human error, failure russia, pregnant women were ad- containment structures. The first to follow instructions, design de- vised to have abortions. My initial priority should be to safeguard fects or technical malfunction." optimism was completely dispelled. atomic plants that supply power and I concluded, "People concerned It was important to decide in my heat to large cities, reactors with about the potential harmful conse- own mind what should be done graphite moderators like the one quences of the peaceful use of nu- about nuclear power. that malfunctioned at Chernobyl, clear energy should concentrate Plainly, mankind cannot re- and fast-neutron breeder reactors. their efforts not on attempts to ban nounce nuclear power, so we must I also became interested in the nuclear power, but instead on de- find technical means to guarantee possibility of reducing earthquake mands to assure its complete its absolute safety and exclude the damage by burying thermonuclear safety." 60 TIME, MAY 21, 1990 SAKHAROV ment. "We have to hospitalize you. We've received a great many letters from citizens, from your children." We realized that resistance was useless and, in any case, we no longer had the strength. The KGB agents went out- side. We kissed. Tears came to my eyes. Lusia said bitterly, "And on Tanya's anniversary Out on the street, they began pushing us into two sepa- rate ambulances. I was taken to Semashko Hospital, the medical center for the Gorky region, while Lusia was taken to Hospital No. 10, a run-down facility on the Oka's left bank. But until I actually saw Lusia again, I was under the illusion we were in the same hospital. I was put in a semi- private room. My roommate introduced himself as secre- tary of a district party committee. A third bed and patient had been placed in the entry leading into our room. These men were both genuinely ill. A few minutes after I got to the room, the attending physician, Dr. Rulev, appeared, and I allowed him to take my pulse and blood pressure. I refused to submit to any other procedures and asked to be reunited with Lusia. Sep- aration was difficult to bear. The KGB was apparently counting on that to break us. They were also hoping that the news that the Sakharovs were in the hospital receiving RETURNING TO MOSCOW AFTER ALMOST SEVEN YEARS OF EXILE medical care would pacify our friends around the world. I spent part of the first night reading Nabokov's Speak, break her will, Lusia was driven to Semashko Hospital. In Memory. In the morning I wrote a statement to the doctor the chief physician's office, after four days of painful sepa- in charge declaring that my wife and I had been separated ration, we embraced. We insisted that Ryabinin speak in by force, and that I would refuse all medical procedures our presence with Academy President Anatoli Alexandrov, until we were reunited, and would not end my hunger as an earnest of the KGB'S promise; only then would we end strike until I was certain that Liza would be granted per- our hunger strike. After 17 days, the strike was over, and mission to emigrate. Liza was free to join Alexei in the U.S. The nurses would bring meals for me even though I asked them not to. I would leave the untouched trays in the hall. The other patients were kind enough to eat in the en- Mentally Unstable? try, keeping the door to the room closed. A well-known consultant, Dr. Vagralik, would visit me In April 1983 in Gorky, Lusia had what was apparently two or three times a day, accompanied by Rulev and some- her second heart attack. The weeks that followed brought times by a doctor who was introduced as a neurologist but two additional cardiac events. She was offered a bed in the was, I suspect, a psychiatrist. Vagralik warned me that I Academy of Sciences hospital, but refused to be admitted was not a young man, that I could slip into a terminal state without me. at any moment, and that he had already noticed irrevers- The academy soon dispatched a team of specialists to ible changes whose progress would accelerate. The neu- examine me. The head of the team said hospitalization was rologist (or psychiatrist) suggested that I was becoming advisable in my case, as I had received no treatment for a confused and losing my faculties. As he put it, I already had chronic prostate condition since arriving in Gorky, was one foot in the grave, and I ought to let the doctors obey plagued by angina and borderline hypertension and appar- the Hippocratic oath and help me. ently had suffered several heart attacks-microinfarcts in To all these statements and to Rulev's attempts to take 1970 and 1975 and three attacks in Gorky-as well as a my blood pressure, I responded with a single, set phrase: "I bout of thrombophlebitis. My condition was not nearly so refuse to be examined until I'm reunited with my wife." On critical as Lusia's, but there was still ample reason for me to the morning of Dec. 8, Rulev said, "You have only a few be admitted. But I was only kidding myself that my hospi- hours to think it over. You must end your hunger strike." talization was being given serious consideration. A few hours after Rulev's visit, a man entered my room. During the summer of 1983 Yuri Andropov, then the He was from the KGB. "We've met before," he said. It was Soviet leader, told a group of visiting American Senators in 1980, after Lusia surprised the KGB searching our apart- who had asked about my situation that I was mentally un- ment. "My name is Ryabinin. I'm authorized to inform you stable. Did these remarks indicate a new KGB strategy for that your request can now be reconsidered in a positive dealing with "the Sakharov problem"? The authorities light, but you must first end your hunger strike." I said that clearly were reluctant or unable to banish me from the I took the KGB'S promises seriously, but that my wife and I country, and hesitated to imprison either of us. There is ev- could decide to end the hunger strike only when we were idence that the KGB intended to portray my public activi- together. He said, "You'll be seeing me again." ties as a delusion produced by the influence of Lusia, who That same morning, apparatus for forced feeding was would be presented as a corrupt, self-serving, loose-living, brought into Lusia's room. She warned the doctors that she egotistical, depraved and immoral Jew prostitute, an agent would resist forced feeding with all her strength, even if she of international Zionism. I would be transformed back into died in the struggle. A few hours after this last attempt to a distinguished Soviet (Russian, of course) scientist who TIME, MAY 21, 1990 59 SAKHAROV alized it was the landlady. Whenever I went out, I took irre- Our two-year campaign had made Liza's case widely placeable notes, documents and books with me. known, so we could count on sympathy and support. Most The KGB never gave up its pursuit of my bag of docu- people would understand that a hunger strike was not a bi- ments. In March 1981, I visited a dental clinic where I was zarre extravagance but our one remaining option. having some work done. The dental technician insisted At first, Lusia and I exchanged written notes about our that because this was a surgical office, I'd have to leave my plans, so that the KGB couldn't eavesdrop on us. Once we bag outside. When I went to reclaim the bag, it was gone. had made our decision, there was no reason to conceal it. The KGB had struck a powerful blow: I lost notes on scien- On the contrary, by declaring our intentions, we gave the tific matters and current events, personal documents and KGB an opportunity to let Liza go quietly and save face. So, letters, my diary for the past 14 months and three thick in October, we sent out appeals for support. notebooks containing the manuscript of these memoirs. Lusia traveled to Moscow with letters announcing our I began to reconstruct the book from memory. Once or hunger strike, also notebooks containing the work I had twice a month, Lusia would take what I'd written to Mos- done on these memoirs. I didn't want the KGB to get any of cow and send it on to Efrem and Tanya in the U.S. How she this. A week later, she returned with 100 bottles of Bor- accomplished this is a story that cannot yet be told. By zhomi mineral water, which helps maintain the body's elec- April 1982, I had finished another rough draft. But on Oct. trolyte balance while fasting. On Oct. 21 I sent telegrams to 11, 1982, the entire manuscript-500 typewritten pages Brezhnev and the head of the Academy of Sciences, an- Lusia had brought back from Moscow and 900 handwritten nouncing that our hunger strike would begin on Nov. 22. pages I had recently completed-was again stolen, this Many dissidents held Liza responsible for not prevent- time by what can only be called gangster methods. ing the hunger strike. It should have been obvious to them We had driven into town, and Lusia went off on an er- that Liza had no way of influencing our decision. The refus- rand while I waited in the car, the bag on the floor behind al to let her rejoin Alexei may have been the immediate the front seat. A man walked over and asked through my cause of the strike. But in a broader sense, it was the conse- half-open window, "Are you headed for Moscow?" I told quence of all that had happened to us, including exile in him no. My memory of what happened next is blank. I re- Gorky and a continuation of my struggle for human rights call someone pulling the bag through a window. I tried to and the freedom to choose one's country of residence. get out of the car but couldn't find the door handle, some- There had been virtually no objection when I declared a thing that usually comes automatically. I finally extricated hunger strike in 1974 on behalf of the dissident Vladimir myself and saw three women standing nearby, one holding Bukovsky and other political prisoners. This time I was what looked like a doctor's kit. "They jumped over the rail- honoring a more compelling and personal obligation. ing," one woman told me. "Did you know they smashed your window?" The left rear window had been smashed, The strike began on Nov. 22. After nearly two weeks, Sa- but I hadn't heard a thing. I believe I'd been momentarily kharov and his wife were steadily growing weaker. stunned by some narcotic. I have no direct evidence, but there was a strange odor, like that of rotting fruit. Dec. 4 was Tanya and Efrem's anniversary, and we "We called the police," one said. "They're coming." looked forward to clinking glasses with Mark Kovner when he One of the women must have been a doctor, the other two stopped by later in the day: mineral water in our glasses, vodka were probably nurses assigned to treat me if I suffered any in his. While we were taking our 1 'clock walk on the terrace, ill effects from the narcotic. They'd lied about calling the we caught sight of a man inside our apartment-a KGB agent police. They didn't want me to go straight to the precinct whose face was familiar. We hurried in from the terrace and station; maybe they were afraid I'd pass out along the way. saw that eight people had invaded the living room and entry They walked off before I could ask them to serve as hall. At least some, if not all, were from the KGB. Most were witnesses. wearing white coats. Lusia said, "They've come to kill us." Beginning in March 1980, a policeman was stationed in The door chain had been ripped off-not for the first front of our apartment door around the clock. Anyone who time-and the key was lying on a table. One of the intrud- came to see me was given a hard time, and those from other ers announced he was from the Municipal Health Depart- cities were usually forced to leave Gorky. Some found themselves in se- rious trouble: at least three persons The Wallenberg Mystery who attempted to visit spent several months in psychiatric confinement. One of the items in the bag stolen file is never completely eradicated. from the dental clinic in Gorky was a At the Installation I learned how letter about Raoul Wallenberg, the all this works from a KGB officer who'd A Visa for Liza Swedish diplomat who rescued thou- had the job of sorting files. In every sands of Hungarian Jews during case, the first page of a file was re- In 1981 the Sakharovs began their World War II, then vanished when tained. If a person had been executed, first hunger strike while in Gorky (earlier the Soviets occupied Budapest. Sovi- an affidavit that the death sentence they had conducted others in support of et authorities have maintained that had been carried out had to be includ- various dissidents). The issue was the Wallenberg died in prison in 1947 ed, along with the serial number of the KGB'S refusal to permit Liza to join her and the file of his case was destroyed. pistol used. fiancé, Elena Bonner's son Alexei, in the The latter assertion most assuredly is Complete files of cases involving U.S. Some Soviet dissidents strongly criti- untrue: NKVD and KGB investigation foreigners almost certainly were pre- cized the strike, fearing Sakharov might files are stamped TO BE PRESERVED served. Diplomats should continue to die over a relatively "trivial" family issue. FOREVER; pages may be removed press Soviet authorities to clear up the on instructions from the top, but a Wallenberg mystery. 58 TIME, MAY 21, 1990 SAKHAROV except for public attacks on me. ASSOCIATED PRESS Lusia, who was still permitted to travel, left Gorky for Moscow on Jan. 27. The next day, at a press confer- ence held in our Chkalov Street apartment, she read a statement I had written describing the circum- stances of my exile and my thoughts on current issues. She also visited the Procurator's Office to determine the official grounds for my exile and to resolve the visa problem of her son's fiancée Liza (Alexei had immigrated to the U.S. in May 1978, but Liza had not received permission to join him). Several Gorky residents visited me while Lusia was absent. Felix Kra- savin, an old friend of the Bonner family, paid a call. So did the refuse- nik physicist Mark Kovner, whom I'd met at a seminar in Moscow. I made new acquaintances, among them Ser- BARRED FROM THE COURTROOM DURING YURI ORLOV'S 1978 TRIAL gei Ponomarev, who had served five years in a labor camp for "anti-Soviet activity." "Because the U.S.S.R. is conducting military opera- Each visitor, upon leaving the building, was taken by tions in Afghanistan." the police to a nearby site designated "post for the mainte- Suddenly, one pulled a pistol from his pocket; he began nance of public order." They would be held for hours while playing with it and waving it around. I asked whether it was their papers were checked, and attempts would be made to a real pistol or just a cigarette lighter. One of them replied, intimidate them. Many suffered unpleasant repercussions. "A cigarette lighter that drills holes in people." After a few weeks the authorities allowed only people sent The second man kept assuring me that his friend really or approved by the KGB to pass through their blockade. A was a first-class marksman. Then the man with the gun few months later, the flow of visitors stopped altogether. started to shout, "I'll show you what Afghanistan's really On Jan. 28 I was ordered to report to MVD headquar- like! I'll turn this apartment into an Afghanistan!" ters. There, two KGB men introduced themselves as Major While this was going on, Lusia's friend Natasha Gesse, Chuprov and Captain Shuvalov. They complained that I who was looking after me while Lusia was gone, caught had violated the terms of my regimen by phoning Moscow sight of the pistol and told the landlady, "Pretend you're and writing a postscript to a Helsinki Group document. taking out the garbage and go tell the policeman that "They're mistaken," I said. drunks are in the apartment and that they've got a pistol." "Will you put that in writing?" The landlady was gone a good while, but when she re- "Of course." I took a sheet of paper and wrote that I turned, she pretended she'd misunderstood Natasha. She had not called Moscow (my attempts to telephone had all had to be sent a second time. At last, several policemen ap- been illegally cut off). I had added my signature to the doc- peared and led the "drunks" away. ument about Afghanistan but had not made any changes in it, since I was not a member of the Helsinki Group. I asked Chuprov to write down several requests and A Theft in Gorky pass them on. I asked that Liza be granted a visa to join Alexei, that young scientists from FIAN be permitted to vis- The KGB never let things settle into a stable pattern; it me, that I have access to my regular doctors from the from time to time, they would commit a new outrage. academy clinic, that the telephone be reconnected in the Whenever I left the building, my KGB tails would shad- Moscow apartment of Lusia's mother Ruth (essential be- OW me. I came to know many by sight. When I walked in the cause of her age, 79, and her health) and that phone service woods, I more than once flushed an observer hiding behind be installed in the Gorky apartment-members of the a tree, who would then dash away. We were prevented academy are entitled to a private telephone. from making long-distance calls; whenever we went to a Chuprov suggested that I order the telephone myself. I post office to do so, the phones were "out of order"-KGB said that no one would speak with me at the telephone of- shadows had been there ahead of us. Once I managed to fice since I was officially still a resident of Moscow. make a call by carrying out a trash can, dropping it off and "You can register as a resident of Gorky." continuing to a post office. From that day on, a policeman "Under no circumstances will I do that: I was sent here accompanied us when we took out the garbage. illegally." The KGB did more than supervise my quarantine. From That same evening, I answered the doorbell. Two the first days, we detected signs that strangers were enter- men-drunk or pretending to be drunk-entered, declar- ing our apartment. We would find our tape recorders, radi- ing that they wanted to "get a look at this Sakharov guy." os and typewriter damaged and had to repair them many "I'm Sakharov." times. At first, we assumed that some of the policemen "Why do you want the Olympics boycotted?" were letting the KGB agents into our apartment; then we re- TIME, MAY 21, 1990 57 The Dodge Shadow and Spirit ES took on the Honda Civic DX and Accord EX. The results? ADVANTAGE: DODGE In a side-by-side comparison, 100 car owners rated the cars in 33 different categories. From legroom and driving ease, from interior and exterior styling to pick-up and passing ability. When it was all over 76 out of 100 car owners preferred Dodge Shadow and Spirit ES overall to Honda Civic DX and Accord EX.+ SHADOW Shadow ES sedan shown (without turbo) $11,038+ payments will be higher. Base 20% Down Total Dodge Shadow was preferred overall to a comparably equipped Honda 2-door Price Payment Financed 4.9% APR for 60 Mos. $132 Mo. 1.9% APR for 36 Mos. $201 Mo. 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Mo. 0.0% APR* or about package savings they could get of up to $847** Test drive the cars that beat the Hondas, but hurry. 0% APR financing and $1000 rebates end soon!* *Until May 31, get guaranteed cash back or 0% APR financing, or longer term rates, (for qualified buyers through Chrysler Credit) on selected '90 models in stock. See dealer for guaranteed cash back details & guarantee claim form. TSticker prices exclude tax & destination charges. Actual dealer prices may vary. **Package savings on select models depend on model & package and are based on sticker prices of items if sold separately. TTU.S. Testing Company Market Research, Inc. (not affiliated with U.S. government) survey of two panels, each consisting of 50 GM and Ford owners who said they would consider purchasing a Dodge Japanese car, rating comparably equipped vehicles in 33 categories and then overall. Sticker prices of compared models, excluding tax & destination charge: $16,432 Spirit ES, $10,861 Shadow. Advantage: Dodge. SAKHAROV en and bathroom. The landlady told Lusia she was the wid- foresight to pack our transistor radio, and on the evening OW of a KGB officer. (It took us six months to discover what news my exile was the lead story, along with Afghanistan. her real duties were: to make sure that the window in her For the next two weeks foreign broadcasts featured pro- room was left unbolted to allow KGB agents access to the tests by writers, public personalities and-of particular apartment from the street, bypassing the police manning a weight-scientists, including the U.S. scientists Sidney watch post.) As I appeared, she retired to her room. Drell and Jeremy Stone. The intervention of U.S. National At last Lusia and I were alone together.* She'd had the Academy of Sciences President Philip Handler and other *Alone Together is the title of Elena Bonner's 1986 account of her life in exile prominent scientists might have forestalled further steps with Sakharov. against me. My Soviet colleagues, regrettably, kept silent- Who Murdered Lake Baikal? The planet's oldest, deepest and try switched from rayon cord to me- ported by steel piles. But the build- largest lake, Baikal is about the size of tallic cord. Whatever rationale the ings are still vulnerable to the major Belgium and accounts for a fifth of Baikal complex may once have earthquakes that have occurred the world's freshwater reserves. The had-and it never offset the poten- there once or twice a century. threat to this unique ecosystem, home tial harm to the lake-vanished. The big problem now was treat- to more than 1,000 species of plants Construction nevertheless went ment of toxic waste. The pollution and animals unknown anywhere else, ahead, with whole armies of offi- caused by floating logs down the riv- stimulated a vociferous Soviet envi- cials defending their decision and ers that empty into the lake kills the ronmental movement. Baikal, says saving face by insisting on the com- spawn of most fish, including the Siberian activist Valentin Rasputin, plex's importance for the defense of Baikal omul, which a century ago ri- contains "such pulchritude as to be the country, the usual clinching valed beef as a source of food for all unimaginable this side of paradise." argument. Russia. The accidental discharge of effluents, deforestation and It is a precious resource, fire also threatened the frag- an area of surpassing natural ile ecological balance of the beauty, a source of national region. We proposed that the pride and, to some extent, lakeshores be closed to new the very symbol of our na- industry and existing enter- tion. For several years, news- prises be moved. papers had been publishing At a meeting of the Coun- alarming reports on threats cil of Ministers, Prime Minis- to Baikal from industrial ter Alexei Kosygin, who was construction along its shores, handling the Baikal project, the felling and rafting of tim- asked Mstislav Keldysh, pres- ber and pulp mills' discharge ident of the Academy of Sci- of chemical wastes. ences, "What does the acade- Early in 1967 a student at A PRECIOUS RESOURCE: SYMBOL OF THE NATION my recommend? If the the Moscow Institute of En- safeguards aren't reliable, ergy invited me to attend meetings The story goes that Orlov had we'll stop construction." Keldysh of the Komsomol [Communist Par- chosen the site by simply pointing to quoted a report that the water-puri- ty youth wing] Committee to Save a place on the shoreline while cruis- fication system and other safe- Baikal. I learned that in the late ing in a motorboat with cronies. guards were completely reliable. He 1950s, Orlov, the minister in charge Building was already under way may have been acting in good faith. of the paper industry, had ordered when someone discovered that this Still, my feeling is that his stand was construction of a large cellulose was the precise spot where the fam- greatly influenced by the academy's complex on the lake's shores to pro- ous Verninsky earthquake had dependence on the bureaucratic duce a particularly durable viscose caused the lake to swallow up 35 machine, and that he was predis- rayon cord for airplane tires. It was acres of shoreline in the 19th centu- posed to respect the wishes of this assumed that the pure Baikal water ry; it was a seismically active region. machine and to ignore the warnings would facilitate polymerization [a But instead of canceling the project, of whistle blowers. chemical process in which many the authorities transferred respon- Only a couple of years after small molecules combine to build sibility to the Ministry of Medium these events, a Komsomol expedi- much larger molecules called poly- Machine Building. One scientist tion brought back photographs mers] and the resulting fibers would taunted me: "Do you know who's in showing the massive destruction of be stronger. charge of the murder of Baikal? Baikal's fish and plankton caused by The plant's output showed that Your own Slavsky!" New plans were toxic wastes. No accidental dis- this hypothesis was unfounded. drawn up for earthquake-resistant charges had been logged. 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SAKHAROV I accompanied them to their car. I was surprised by the number of KGB agents in the area and by something pecu- liar in the air-a mixture of hostility and gloating. I said, "Well, here they are." "Yes, here we are!" a KGB agent echoed derisively. I suppose they'd already learned of the decision to exile me. But the Americans were allowed to drive off. Our phone rang at 1 a.m. on Jan. 22. A friend, very ex- cited, said he had heard that a decision had been made to deprive me of my awards and exile me from Moscow. I re- marked, "A month ago, I wouldn't have taken it seriously, but now, with Afghanistan, anything's possible." Jan. 22 was a Tuesday, the day the theoretical-physics seminar met at FIAN [the physics institute where Sakharov still worked]. I followed my customary routine, ordering a car from the academy's motor pool and leaving home at 1:30. At the Krasnokholmsky Bridge, a traffic-patrol car forced us to stop. From the front seat I saw two men get in the rear, flashing red IDs marked MVD [for Interior Minis- try]. They were actually KGB. ALONE TOGETHER IN GORKY IN 1985 They ordered the driver to follow the patrol car to the Procurator's Office on Pushkin Street. KGB agents escort- "Police stopped our car; KGB agents got in and ordered ed me to the fourth floor, where "chats" about my activities us to drive here. I've been stripped of my awards, and I'm had taken place in 1973 and 1977. I asked Alexander Re- being banished to Gorky-it's off limits to foreigners." kunkov, the deputy procurator-general, "Why didn't you "Will you be coming back to the house?" send a summons instead of shanghaiing me?" "No, I'm supposed to leave straight from here, but it's Rekunkov replied, "I gave orders to have you brought my understanding that you can accompany me." I hung up here due to the extraordinary circumstances and the great and mumbled to myself, "So this is it urgency involved. I have been instructed to read you a de- Downstairs, I climbed into the backseat of a minibus cree passed by the Presidium: with curtained windows, flanked by KGB agents. We were "In view of A.D. Sakharov's systematic actions, which preceded by a police car with a flashing light and siren and discredit him as a recipient of State awards, and in re- followed by another car. Lusia arrived at Domodedovo sponse to many suggestions made by the Soviet public, the Airport more than two hours later. She told me that as Presidium of the U.S.S.R. Supreme Soviet has decided to soon as she hung up after my call, our phone went dead deprive Andrei Dmitrievich Sakharov of the title Hero of (service wasn't restored until December 1986). Soon after- Socialist Labor and all his State awards." ward, police and KGB cordoned off our building and Rekunkov continued, "It has been decided to banish stopped correspondents and friends from entering. A.D. Sakharov from Moscow to a place that will put an end Five minutes after Lusia arrived, an officer announced to his contacts with foreigners." The official looked up and that our plane, a Tu-154, was ready. A dozen KGB agents added, "The place that has been selected is Gorky, which is accompanied us on our special flight. We were too relieved off limits to foreigners. Please sign here to acknowledge at being reunited to worry about where we were headed- that you have been informed of the decree's contents." we didn't care if it was to the ends of the earth. In Gorky we He handed me a typewritten sheet of paper. I saw the were loaded into another minibus. "Where are we going?" typed-not signed-name of Leonid Brezhnev. The de- Lusia asked our anonymous escorts. cree was undated and made no mention of banishment. "Home," answered one, grinning. As I studied the paper, Rekunkov said, "The regula- tions require that persons deprived of awards return them." I refused, since the awards had been given in recog- Visit from a Gunman nition of services rendered. I asked why the decree was undated and why Brezhnev After a long journey, we were deposited at a twelve-sto- had not personally signed it. Rekunkov said something ry building off what we later learned was Gagarin Avenue about "technicalities." I failed to ask who had made the de- and taken to an apartment on the first floor. In a large cision to banish me and on what authority. I considered the room a man seated behind a desk said, "I'm Perelygin, dep- entire proceeding completely illegal and thought it point- uty procurator for the Gorky district. I've been instructed less to argue fine points of jurisprudence with those who to inform you of your regimen: you are forbidden to go be- obviously had no respect for the law. By maintaining this yond the city limits of Gorky. You'll be kept under surveil- attitude all through my first weeks in Gorky, I may have lance, and you are forbidden to meet with or contact for- created the inadvertent impression that I accepted their eigners or criminal elements. The MVD will let you know right to proceed in this totally unlawful manner. when you're required to check in at their headquarters. If "You're to leave for Gorky at once," Rekunkov said. you have any questions, call the KGB, either Major Yuri "Your wife may accompany you." Chuprov or Captain Nikolai Shuvalov." Perelygin left. I phoned Lusia. "I'm calling from the Procurator's Of- Lusia, meanwhile, had been talking with our "land- fice. They picked me up on the street." lady" and had taken a look around the apartment, which "Whaaat?" had four rooms (one reserved for the landlady), plus kitch- 54 TIME, MAY 21, 1990 SAKHAROV On Sept. 5, Solzhenitsyn dispatched his article "Peace and Violence" for publication abroad, warning the West Shanghaied and Banished about the nature and extent of state violence in the U.S.S.R. Just before its publication, he added the proposal Sakharov was able to continue his cat-and-mouse game that I be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for "indefatiga- with the authorities through the 1970s at least partly because ble, devoted (and personally dangerous) opposition to sys- of his world stature as a human rights activist and because his tematic state violence." arrest would have strained Soviet-U.S. relations. But with the On Oct. 9, 1975, Lusia and I-she in Italy after a hard- invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, those relations deteriorated fought battle to permit her to leave the country to treat her catastrophically, and the state soon moved against Sakharov. glaucoma; I in Moscow-heard the news that I had been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. The official reaction in the As 1980 began, Afghanistan cast a long shadow. In- U.S.S.R. was one of intense irritation tinged with nervous- creased latitude was granted to the KGB because of the war ness. I was denied permission to go to Norway for the No- and possibly in anticipation of the forthcoming Olympics, bel award ceremonies on the grounds that I was "an indi- as evidenced in a series of arrests. vidual possessing knowledge of state secrets." Lusia On Jan. 17, Charles Bierbauer, an ABC television corre- accepted the award for me in Oslo in December. spondent, and his crew arrived for an interview. Afterward destroying itself in the smoke and If our people and our leaders ever the openness of society. I have no fumes of its cities and the din of hys- succumb to such notions, the results doubt whatsoever as to the value of terical music. could be tragic. defending specific individuals. He Certainly there is much bitter Unlike Solzhenitsyn, I see faults assigns only a secondary importance truth in Solzhenitsyn's complaints. I and sound principles in both the so- to human rights and fears that con- too have called attention to the cialist and the Western systems. I centration on them may divert atten- West's lack of concerted action, its believe that their convergence is tion from more important matters. dangerous illusions, the factional possible, and I welcome that pros- In The Oak and the Calf, Solzhe- gamesmanship, shortsightedness, pect as a chance to save humanity nitsyn makes a great deal of my sup- selfishness and cowardice displayed from the confrontation that threat- posed naiveté, my impracticality by some of its politicians. Yet I be- ens it with destruction. and especially my susceptibility lieve that Western society is to "pernicious" influences. fundamentally healthy and dy- Among those who (in his view) namic, capable of meeting the have hitched themselves to challenges life continually "this strange, huge, conspicu- brings. ous balloon, which was soaring The West's lack of unity is to the heights without engine or the price it pays for the plural- petrol"-me-Solzhenitsyn's, ism, freedom and respect for sharpest, if covert, thrusts are the individual that are the aimed at my wife. Her "delete- sources of strength and flexibil- rious" influence, he suggests, ity for any society. It makes no led me to harp on emigration sense to sacrifice them for a by Jewish refuseniks-people mechanical, barracks unity that "who did not feel that Russia may have a certain utility if was their own country." one's goal is aggressive expan- It's a shame that Solzheni- sion but has otherwise proved BANISHED NOBEL LAUREATE IN THE U.S. IN 1975 tsyn understood so little about to be a failure. Solzhenitsyn's me, my thoughts on emigration, mistrust of the West, of progress in I do not share Solzhenitsyn's an- human rights and other matters, general, of science and democracy tipathy toward progress. If mankind and about the real Lusia and her incline him to romanticize a patriar- is the healthy organism I believe it true role in my life. Late in 1974 a chal way of life and craftsmanship, to be, then progress, science and the German correspondent brought me to expect too much from the Rus- constructive application of intelli- a gift from Solzhenitsyn, a copy of sian Orthodox Church. gence will enable us to cope with the The Oak and the Calf, with a warm Solzhenitsyn suggests that there dangers facing us. Having set out on and complimentary inscription are already clear signs of a national the path of progress several millen- from the author. I already knew and religious renaissance, that Rus- niums ago, mankind cannot halt what was in it, and when I saw the sians have always been hostile to the now-nor should it. inscription, I couldn't help exclaim- socialist system and even that they Solzhenitsyn and I differ most ing, "Solzhenitsyn really offended harbored defeatist sentiments dur- sharply over the defense of civil me in this book!" ing World War II. These ideas, rights-freedom of conscience, The correspondent grinned, which I may have oversimplified freedom of expression, freedom to "Yes, of course, but he doesn't real- somewhat, are little short of myths. choose one's country of residence, ize it." TIME, MAY 21, 1990 53 SAKHAROV educational system. The main charge was that we were en- On Sept. 16 the physicist Yuri Orlov wrote an open letter emies of détente, working against peace. to Brezhnev suggesting economic and political reforms and This grave accusation had an insidious plausibility to offering a spirited defense of me; like Turchin, he soon found believers in Soviet foreign policy's pacific aims, the selfless- himself out of a job. In 1976 he helped organize the Moscow ness of our aid to national liberation movements and the Helsinki Watch Group, part of an organization set up by Sovi- treachery of the imperialists who surrounded us with mili- et dissidents to monitor human rights violations, but two years tary installations. If we stand for peace, then the more later he was sentenced to seven years in a labor camp and five missiles, nuclear warheads and nerve gas we stockpile, the of internal exile for anti-Soviet activities. He suffered ex- safer everyone will be. Our Western opponents employ ex- tremely harsh treatment. At the end of Orlov's trial, a scuffle actly the same line of argument. broke out when his friends were barred from entering the In response to the press campaign against me, Valentin courtroom to hear the verdict. I hit one KGB agent; Lusia, re- Turchin of the Institute of Applied Mathematics issued an ceiving a sharp blow to the neck from another, smacked him open letter in my support. His defense was made at a heavy back, but as she was being shoved into a police car, she acci- cost: he was denounced at a staff meeting, demoted and fi- dentally punched the local police chief. She said later, "I was nally fired. Turchin later supported himself by tutoring pri- right to hit the KGB agent and don't regret it, but I struck the vate students until his immigration to the U.S. in 1977. police chief by mistake, and I'd like to apologize to him." Sakharov and Solzhenitsyn: a Difference in Principle Despite their common struggle his epic work The Gulag Archipela- icy mines in Kolyma and Norilsk. against the arbitrariness of the Soviet go. Real life is never simple, howev- On Feb. 12, 1974, Solzhenitsyn system, Sakharov and fellow Nobel er, and our relations are now diffi- was taken from his home and placed laureate and dissident Aleksandr Sol- cult-perhaps unavoidably so, since under arrest. The next day a group zhenitsyn stood far apart on funda- we are not at all alike and differ gathered in our apartment and mental questions of Soviet life. markedly on questions of principle. drafted the "Moscow Appeal" de- manding Solzhenitsyn's release and We first met at the apartment of The two continued meeting into an investigation of the crimes de- a friend of mine on Aug. 26, 1968. the early 1970s, not always amicably. scribed in The Gulag Archipelago. With his lively blue eyes and ruddy Once, Solzhenitsyn's first wife scold- But Solzhenitsyn was expelled from beard, his tongue-twistingly fast ed Sakharov for harping the country and flown speech delivered in an unexpected on the issue of Jewish to West Germany. treble and his deliberate, precise emigration and fretting The West's lack Before discussing gestures, he seemed an animated about the harassment concentration of purposeful energy. of his wife's children, of unity is the the issues that divide us, I wish to emphasize He voiced his disagreements pointing out that the price it pays for my profound respect with me in incisive fashion. Any Russian people faced greater worries. As Sa- pluralism, for him, for his talent kind of convergence is out of the as a writer and for his question. The West is caught up in kharov writes, Lusia was freedom and historic achievement materialism and permissiveness. "outraged by the lectur- in uncovering the Socialism may turn out to be its final ing tone" and burst out, respect for the state's crimes. I agree ruin. Our leaders are soulless robots "Don't give me that individual with a great deal of who have latched onto power and 'Russian people' S ! what he says. But even the good life and won't let go until You make breakfast for where I share Solzhe- forced to do so. your own children, not nitsyn's general thesis, Solzhenitsyn claimed that I had for the whole Russian I often find troubling understated Stalin's crimes. Ac- people!" Still, the Sakharovs were the peremptory nature of his judg- cording to one estimate, 60 million soon rallying to Solzhenitsyn's ments, the absence of nuance and people had died as a result of terror, defense. his lack of tolerance for the opin- famine and associated disease. My ions of others. He displays a marked figure of 10 million deaths in labor Right after New Year 1974, Sol- anti-Western and isolationist bias, camps was too low. I was also wrong zhenitsyn's 13-year-old stepson vis- at times lapsing into an exaggerated to differentiate Stalin from Lenin: ited our apartment, disappeared Russian nationalism. corruption and destruction began into the bathroom and returned In Solzhenitsyn's view, the West the day the Bolsheviks seized pow- with a book that had been con- is losing its battle against totalitar- er, and have continued ever since. cealed under his clothing: The Gu- ianism, which is on the offensive ev- It's a mistake to seek a multiparty lag Archipelago. The book was a erywhere. Inconsistent, disunited, system; what we need is a nonparty shattering experience, evoking a lacking firm religious or moral system. somber world of gray camps sur- guidelines, it is wallowing in the I felt enormous respect for him, rounded by barbed wire, investiga- pleasures of the consumer society, since reinforced by publication of tors' offices and torture chambers, in permissiveness. It is heedlessly 52 TIME, MAY 21, 1990 SAKHAROV hopes inspired by the Prague Spring collapsed. And "real Not long afterward, her son Alexei was rejected by socialism" displayed its true colors, its stagnation, its in- Moscow University. He was an excellent student, winning a ability to tolerate pluralistic or democratic tendencies, not prize in the math Olympics and graduating first in his class. just in the Soviet Union but even in neighboring countries. But during his junior year at a new school he refused to at- The abolition of censorship and free elections were regard- tend the standard "Lenin class" that led to automatic ed as too risky and contagious. Komsomol [Communist Party youth organization] mem- The international repercussions of the invasion were bership. I urged him not to jeopardize his future for a mi- enormous. For millions of former supporters, it destroyed nor formality. Alexei answered, "Andrei Dmitrievich, you their faith in the Soviet system and its potential for reform. allow yourself to be honest. Why do you advise me to be- On Aug. 25, to protest the invasion, seven activists sat have differently?" for a minute near the spot in Red Square where prisoners We later learned that one Moscow University examiner had been executed in prerevolutionary Russia. Then KGB had received a direct order to flunk him: "He won't be ac- agents began beating them. All were arrested (they were cepted anyway, and you'd just be fired." Alexei's story is quickly sent to labor camps, into exile or, in one case, to a not unusual. Anti-Semitic discrimination in university ad- prison psychiatric hospital). Minutes later, cars carrying missions is part of a deliberate policy of squeezing Jews out Alexander Dubcek and other Czechoslovak leaders who of the country's intellectual establishment. The Central had been brought to Moscow by force shot out of the Committee is said to have asked Mstislav Keldysh, then Kremlin's Spassky Gate and raced across Red Square. president of the Academy of Sciences, when its Jewish membership would fall to zero. It would take about 20 years to solve the "problem," he replied. I must note that Acts of "Hooliganism" Keldysh did not reduce the number of Jews in the institutes he directed and was not anti-Semitic. Sakharov's wife Klava died in 1969 of stomach cancer. After a while he found himself working closely with Elena Bonner ("Lusia"), a vigorous human rights activist of Jewish Notoriety at Home and a Nobel in Oslo and Armenian origin. "Since August 1971," he writes, "Lusia and I have followed a common path." In January 1972 they On Aug. 15, 1973, Mikhail Malyarov, the Soviet Deputy were married, and attending the ceremony were half a dozen Procurator-General, telephoned and asked me to come KGB men in identical black suits. "I'd guess that they were see him. At his office on Pushkin Street, Malyarov said that demonstrating their disapproval," notes Sakharov. Soon the meeting with the foreign press, as I had been doing in be- authorities were stepping up the pressure on him and Bonner half of dissidents, could be regarded as a violation of my to cease speaking out. obligation not to disclose state secrets. To make it clear that I was determined to go on speaking out, I decided to After the massacre of Israeli athletes at the 1972 Munich hold a major press conference. Olympics, I joined a silent protest in front of the Lebanese Some 30 Western correspondents crowded into our embassy in Moscow. Lusia was ill, but her son Alexei, her apartment on Aug. 21. I said I supported détente, since it daughter Tanya and Tanya's husband Efrem Yankelevich reduced the risk of war, but added that caution, unity and were with me. We were all carted to a drunk tank by the firmness of purpose were necessary on the part of the KGB. A month later, Tanya was expelled from Moscow Uni- West as it embarked on a new and more complex rela- versity. Lusia's children had now become hostages to my tionship with the U.S.S.R. The Soviet Union, I said, is a public activity. Their access to education and jobs would be country "behind a mask," a closed, totalitarian society ca- restricted or blocked. Threats of arrest, imprisonment, phys- pable of dangerously unpredictable actions. Détente ical violence and even murder became a genuine menace. would promote international security only if the West Eventually, the children were forced to emigrate. avoided letting the U.S.S.R. achieve military superiority On Oct. 26, 1973, the trial of Cronid Lubarsky, an astro- and at the same time tried to promote a more open Sovi- physicist charged with distributing the Chronicle of Human et society. I reminded my listeners that the ingrained con- Events, the underground publication, began in Noginsk, a servatism and inertia of the Soviet system militated town near Moscow. A dozen of us tried to enter the court- against any rapid change. A few hours after the confer- room but were shoved back outside by a wedge of KGB agents. ence, Western radio stations and newspapers began car- Arms were twisted; some people were trampled. Lusia rying reports. marched up to the senior KGB officer and slapped his face. On Aug. 28, newspapers carried a letter signed by 40 Two weeks later, Lusia was summoned before the Mos- academicians denouncing me for actions that "discredit cow party committee. Could she explain her acts of "hooli- the good name of Soviet science." It marked the beginning ganism" in Noginsk? Such behavior, she was told, raised of a press campaign against me that included the obligatory doubts about her continued membership in the party. The letters from scientific research institutes, writers' and art- threat of expulsion was meant to intimidate her. Instead, ists' unions, individual scientists, authors, physicians, war Lusia placed her party card on the table, along with a state- veterans, steelworkers, miners and milkmaids. ment she had prepared asking to be removed from the The writer Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn was also included in ranks of the party. It was an enormously effective stroke. many of these attacks. The vital truths expressed in his ex- "Why are you so hostile to the Soviet system?" a com- traordinary literary works and keen polemics had made mittee member asked. "It's given you everything." him the object of virulent party and KGB hatred for several "No one gave me anything. I fought in the war, nearly years; now there were claims that I alone, or the two of us, lost my sight; I worked night and day." Lusia had broken were engaged in a slanderous assault on Soviet society and with the party for good. its guarantees of work, free medical care and an unrivaled TIME, MAY 21, 1990 51 The extra room is what you make it. It's a living room, a meeting room, a work room, or a playroom. At Marriott Suites, we have everything you'd expect from Marriott. Like friendly and efficient service, a restaurant and lounge, pool and health club. 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It is equally important that a university FOR MORE INFORMATION ON provides an education for life. At Duquesne, it is the Spirit HOW TO BECOME A PART OF THE that gives life. Discover the Spirit of Duquesne." DUQUESNE TRADITION CALL 1- 800-456-0590 John E. MURRAY, JR. OR (412) 434-5000. PRESIDENT DUQUESNE UNIVERSITY PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA 15282 SAKHAROV Early in June I traveled with Khariton to the Installation in his personal railroad car. After supper Khariton said, "[KGB chief Yuri] An- dropov called me in. His agents have been finding copies of your essay all over the place-it's circulating ille- gally, and it will cause a lot of harm if it gets abroad. Andropov asked me to talk to you. You ought to withdraw it from circulation." "Why don't you take a look at it?" I suggested. Khariton retired to his compartment to do so. "Well, what do you think?" I in- quired the next day. "It's awful." "The style?" Khariton grimaced. "No, not the style. It's the content that's awful!" "The contents reflect my beliefs. WITH LUSIA, AND HER SON ALEXEI, ON THE DAY OF THEIR MARRIAGE It's too late to withdraw it." In mid-June Andrei Amalrik, who wrote Will the Soviet imperialists use nuclear weapons, we'll retaliate at once Union Survive Until 1984? and as a result was imprisoned with everything we've got and destroy every target neces- for five years for defaming the Soviet state, gave a copy of sary to ensure victory." Reflections to a Dutch correspondent. On July 10, a few So our response would be an immediate, all-out nucle- days after returning to the Installation and exactly seven ar attack on enemy cities and industry as well as on military years after my clash with Khrushchev over nuclear testing, targets! Most alarming, Slavsky ignored the question of I turned on the BBC or VOA and heard my name. The an- what, other than military force, might prevent war. I point- nouncer reported that on July 6 the Dutch newspaper Het ed out that Reflections warned against exactly the kind of Parool had published my article. approach he was taking, in which life-and-death decisions The die was cast. That evening I had the most profound are made by people who have usurped power (and privi- feeling of satisfaction. The following day I was due to fly to lege) without accepting the checks of free opinion and Moscow but stopped at my office at 9 a.m. and told Khari- open debate. I raised the issue of Czechoslovakia: Was ton, "My article's been published abroad." there any guarantee against Soviet intervention? Slavsky "I knew it would happen" was all Khariton could say. said that had been ruled out by the Central Committee, He looked crushed. Two hours later, I left for the airfield. I provided there was no overt counterrevolutionary vio- was never to set foot in my office again. lence, as occurred in Hungary. A couple of weeks after this, Khariton told me that Slavsky opposed my return to the Installation. "You're to A Dangerous Muddle remain in Moscow for the time being," he said. This was tantamount to being fired. Toward the end of July, Slavsky summoned me to the On July 22 Reflections was published in the New York ministry. "Party secretaries have been calling from all over Times and later was widely reprinted. The International the country," he said, "demanding firm measures to put a Publishers Association said that in 1968-69 more than stop to counterrevolutionary propaganda in my ministry." 18 million copies were published around the world, putting Of Reflections, he said, "It's a dangerous muddle. You criti- me in third place after Mao Zedong and Lenin and ahead cize the leaders' privileges-you've enjoyed the same privi- of Georges Simenon and Agatha Christie. leges. Those who bear immense responsibilities, difficult Reflections was well received by liberal intellectuals burdens, deserve some advantages. It's for the cause. abroad. A kindred voice had reached them from behind "What you wrote about convergence is utopian non- the Iron Curtain-and from a member of a profession that sense. Capitalism can't be made humane. Their social pro- in America was dominated by "hawks." On the other hand, grams and employee stock plans aren't steps toward social- my criticism of Soviet society appealed to conservatives, ism. And there's no trace of state capitalism in the U.S.S.R. and everyone seemed pleased by my comments on the en- We'll never give up the advantages of our system, and capi- vironment, my humanitarian concerns and my scenarios talists aren't interested in your convergence either. for the future. "Without a strong hand, we could never have rebuilt The essay was widely read in the U.S.S.R. as well- our economy after the war or broken the American atomic samizdat was flourishing-but many people were punished monopoly-you yourself helped do that. You have no mor- for circulating Reflections. A driver from Dushanbe who al right to judge our generation-Stalin's generation-for had mailed my essay to a friend was sentenced to three its mistakes, for its brutality; you're now enjoying the fruits years in a labor camp for defaming the Soviet system. of our labor and our sacrifices. On Aug. 21 newspapers reported that Warsaw Pact "Convergence is a dream. We've got to be strong, troops had entered Czechoslovakia and were "fulfilling stronger than the capitalists-then there'l be peace. If the their international duty." The invasion had begun. The 50 TIME, MAY 21, 1990 SAKHAROV defending against them. I wrote about the crimes of Stalin- tive call to revolutionary struggle, but there is nothing pe- ism and the need to expose them fully and the vital impor- remptory or fanatical in them once they are stripped of tance of freedom of opinion and democracy. I stressed the their poetic imagery. Reflections rejected all extremes, the value of progress but warned that it must be scientifically intransigence of revolutionaries and reactionaries alike. It managed and not left to chance. I outlined a program for called for compromise and for progress moderated by en- mankind's future; my vision was somewhat Utopian, but I lightened conservatism and caution. Marx notwithstand- remain convinced that the exercise was worthwhile. ing, evolution is a better "locomotive of history" than revo- Later on, life-and Lusia [Elena Bonner, his second lution: the "battle" I had in mind was nonviolent. wife]-would teach me to pay more attention to individual victims of injustice, and a further step followed: recogni- tion that human rights and an open society are fundamen- "For God's Sake, Don't Do That" tal to international confidence, security and progress. I prefaced Reflections with an epigraph taken from I flew to Moscow on April 1, bringing a typed copy of Goethe's Faust: the essay. Historian Roy Medvedev came to see me that Of freedom and of life he only is deserving evening, and I exchanged it for the final chapters of his Who every day must conquer them anew. book on Stalin. Medvedev showed my essay to friends (which I had given him permission to do), and he passed on The heroic romanticism of these lines echoes my own their comments. After making a few changes, I gave the sense of life as both wonderful and tragic. Another aspect of manuscript back to Medvedev. He was going to produce a the truth that complements Goethe's metaphor is contained dozen or more carbon copies. Some, he warned me, might in these lines by the postwar poet Alexander Mezhirov, end up abroad. I replied that I had taken that into account. I lie in a trench under fire. (We were communicating in writing to foil eavesdroppers.) A man enters his home, from the cold. On May 18, I paid a call on Yuli Khariton, scientific di- rector of the Installation. I mentioned that I was writing an Mezhirov understands that heroic exploits are not ends essay on war and peace, ecology and freedom of expres- in themselves but are worthwhile only insofar as they en- sion. Khariton asked what I intended to do with it. "I'll give able other people to lead normal, peaceful lives. Not every- it to samizdat," I answered, referring to the underground one need spend time in the trenches. The meaning of life is network that had sprung up for circulating dissident writ- life itself: the daily routine that demands its own unobtru- ing. "For God's sake, don't do that," he said. "It's too late sive heroism. Goethe's lines are often read as an impera- to stop it now," I confessed. SIMON IVAN NEAR PRAGUE, 1968: "REAL SOCIALISM" SHOWS ITS TRUE COLORS TIME, MAY 21, 1990 49 SAKHAROV As the 1960s drew on, Andrei Sakharov inched toward a break with the regime he had served so ably as the master JURI ROST builder of its thermonuclear-weapons program. His convic- tions and the growing repression in the U.S.S.R. during the Brezhnev years moved him to identify ever more closely with dissent in his own country and abroad. In 1966 he took part in his first human rights demonstration, a one- minute silent protest in Pushkin Square. In 1967 he wrote a letter to Communist Party leader Leonid Brezhnev defend- ing imprisoned dissidents. That prompted an angry reaction from Efim Slavsky, head of the Ministry of Medium Ma- chine Building, which supervised the Soviet nuclear pro- gram. "Sakharov is a good scientist," said Slavsky. "But as a politician he's muddleheaded, and we'll be taking mea- sures." Those included a pay cut of nearly 50% and a de- motion at the Installation, the secret "atomic city" east of Moscow, where he was then working on the peaceful uses of nuclear explosions. But in the following year, 1968, Sa- kharov definitively broke with the Soviet system, and far harsher measures were soon to come. AT HOME IN MOSCOW IN THE LAST YEAR OF HIS LIFE Years in Exile By ANDREI SAKHAROV were a sort of Prague Spring in miniature. They frightened the KGB into taking tough countermeasures: firing, black- y the beginning of 1968, I felt a growing compul- listing, public reprimand, expulsion from the party. After B sion to speak out on the fundamental issues of 1968, when everyone understood the consequences, peo- our age. I was influenced by my life experience ple refused to lend their names to such initiatives. and a feeling of personal responsibility, rein- To my shame, I must admit that the campaign simply forced by the part I'd played in the development of the hy- passed me by, just as had the 1964 banishment of poet Jo- drogen bomb, the special knowledge I'd gained about ther- seph Brodsky from Leningrad and the 1965 arrests of the monuclear warfare, my bitter struggle to ban nuclear dissident writers Andrei Sinyavsky and Yuli Daniel. testing and my familiarity with the Soviet system. I hoped Around the end of January 1968, a friend suggested that such notions as an open society, convergence of the that I write an article on the role of the intelligentsia in to- capitalist and communist systems, and world government day's world. The idea appealed to me, and soon I was writ- might ease the tragic crisis of our age. In 1968 I took my de- ing at the Installation from 7 p.m. to midnight. My wife cisive step by publishing Reflections on Progress, Peaceful Klava was ambivalent: she knew full well the potential con- Coexistence, and Intellectual Freedom. sequences for us and our three children, but she allowed My work on Reflections happened to coincide with the me complete freedom of action. By this time her health was Prague Spring. What so many of us in the socialist coun- beginning to deteriorate. tries had been dreaming of finally seemed to be coming to My essay laid a theoretical foundation for virtually the pass in Czechoslovakia: democracy, including freedom of entire range of my future public activities. I wanted to alert expression and abolition of censorship; reform of the eco- readers to the grave perils threatening the human race- nomic and social systems; curbs on the security forces; and thermonuclear extinction, ecological catastrophe, famine, full disclosure of the crimes of the Stalin era (the an uncontrolled population explosion, alienation and dog- "Gottwald era" in Czechoslovakia). Even from afar, we matic distortion of our conception of reality. were caught up in all the hopes of the catchwords "Prague I argued for convergence, for a rapprochement of the Spring" and "socialism with a human face." socialist and capitalist systems that could eliminate or sub- Events in the Soviet Union echoed those in Prague but stantially reduce these dangers. Economic, social and ideo- on a much reduced scale. In the campaign for the dissi- logical convergence should bring about a scientifically gov- dents Alexander Ginzburg, Yuri Galanskov and Vera erned, democratic, pluralistic society free of intolerance Lashkova (who were tried in January 1968), more than and dogmatism, a humanitarian society that would care for 1,000 signatures-an extraordinary number under Soviet the earth and its future and would embody the positive fea- conditions-were collected, mainly from the intelligentsia. tures of both systems. A few years earlier, no one would have dreamed of publicly I wrote about thermonuclear missiles-their enormous defending such "hostile elements." That and other efforts destructive power, their relatively low cost, the difficulty of 48 From Memoirs. ©1990 by Alfred A. Knopf, Inc. Translated by Richard Lourie Milestones "Sondheim is the most important force in the American musical theater BORN. To Ivan Lendl, 30, the world's top- Leonard Bernstein ranked professional tennis player, and Samantha Frankel Lendl, 22: their first child, a daughter; in Greenwich, Conn. Name: T his magnificent set is like no Marika Lee Lendl. Weight: 8 lbs. 3 OZ. other collection of BORN. To Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg, Stephen Sondheim's 32, lawyer, and Edwin Schlossberg, 44, au- music. Created speci- thor and designer of museum exhibits: fically for the re- their second child, second daughter; in cording medium and recorded in state-of-the-art digital New York City. Name: Tatiana Celia Ken- sound, it is both comprehensive and astonishingly new. Dig- nedy Schlossberg. Weight: 7 lbs. 10 oz. ital Audio calls it "a wondrous new retrospective of Sond- BORN. To Amy Irving, 36, actress (Crossing heim's career [that] accomplishes everything that a Delancey), and Brazilian film director retrospective should." Bruno Barreto, 35 (Dona Flor and Her Two Its range is unequaled-: selections, including material Husbands): their first child, a son; in Santa from the little-known The Frogs and Evening Primrose as well Monica, Calif. Name: Gabriel Davis Bar- reto. Weight: 9 lbs. 2 oz. N as every Broadway show for which he wrote both music and lyrics (through Sunday in the Park with George). Along with INDICTED. Marion S. Barry Jr., 54, mayor of eye-opening new versions of his best-loved songs, it features Washington; on six counts of misdemeanor the first vocal recording of his song "Goodbye For Now" (per- drug offenses (cocaine possession, conspir- formed as an instrumental in the film Reds) and an extraor- acy to possess cocaine), less than four dinary 27-minute Suite of Dances from Pacific Overtures, weeks before he is to go on trial on eight counts (including three felony charges of recomposed by Sondheim specifically for this recording and lying) handed up after his arrest in January performed by a 40-piece orchestra led by Paul Gemignani. in an FBI sting operation; by a federal "This anthology has been created from scratch, and so have grand jury in Washington. Despite his legal many of the orchestral treatments," says Sondheim, who him- problems and treatment for alcoholism self helped choose the selections and attended every record- and prescription-drug addiction, he has been acting as though he will run for a ing session. "That's what makes it exciting." fourth term; a felony conviction would Now hear Sondheim as you've never heard him before make him ineligible to hold the office. available exclusively by mail on either CDs or cassettes. CONTENTS The Worst Pies in London A Little Priest Liaisons DIED. Carl R. ("Spitz") Channell, 44, the Any- one Can Whistle I Do Like You Me and My Town Take Me to the first person to plead guilty in the Iran-con- World The tra scandal; of injuries suffered on March Honey Finishing the Hat Johanna God-Why-Don't-You- Love-Me Blues Losing My Mind Theme from Stavisky Too Many 15 when he was hit by a car; in Washington. Mornings Everybody Says Don't Not While I'm Around With So Little Public relations man Channell admitted in to Be Sure Of Suite of Dances from Pacific Overtures Send in 1987 to conspiring to defraud the Govern- the Clowns Old Friends/Like It Was You Must Meet My Wife ment by using a tax-exempt foundation to Sorry-Grateful The Glamorous Life (The Letter Song) Fear No raise millions for contra supplies. More Comedy Tonight In Buddy's Eyes Goodbye for Now The Little Things You Do Together Good Thing Going It's a Hit DIED. Walker Percy, 73, pre-eminent Digitally recorded. DDD Southern novelist and essayist whose first published novel, The Moviegoer, won a Na- ORDERING INFORMATION tional Book Award for fiction for 1961; of cancer; in Covington, La. His six novels, Two compact discs (#11-7517) $25.95 among them Love in the Ruins and Lance- lot, dramatized his chosen theme, "the Two cassettes (#91-7516) $22.95 dislocation of man in the modern age." Alabama-born, Percy forsook his medical To order by phone (credit-card orders only) call: training and Protestantism and turned to writing and Roman Catholicism. He spun 1-800-233-1066, his existential view of humans into muscu- Monday through Friday, 8 A.M. to 5 P.M., Eastern Time. lar and compelling stories that place him in the Southern pantheon of writers including To order by mail, send your check, money order or major credit- William Faulkner, Thomas Wolfe and Eu- card information with your signature to Book-of-the-Month Rec- dora Welty. ords, Camp Hill, PA 17012. Please include the item number(s) of DIED. Pauline Frederick, 84, a pioneer fe- the recordings you want, plus a shipping and handling charge of male star in broadcasting; in Lake Forest, $1.75 for the first set and 60¢ for each additional set, and sales Ill. Known for her brisk, cogent analysis of world events, she served from 1953 to 1974 as NBC'S U.N. correspondent. In 1976 she M tax if you live in NY or PA. Also, indicate the code number found in the lower was the first woman journalist to moderate right-hand corner of this ad a presidential debate. on your order. RC-773-0-1/9-50 speechwriters THE WHITE HOUSE Office of the Press Secretary EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE UNTIL 9:00 P.M. EST WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 31, 1990 FACT SHEET The President's CFE Initiative on U.S. and Soviet Manpower After initial discussions with NATO Allies, the President concluded that changes which have taken place in Europe over the last three months have made it possible to propose lower levels in the area of greatest concentration of forces -- Central and Eastern Europe. However, the United States will maintain significant military forces in Europe as long as our Allies desire our presence as part of a common security effort. Therefore, in his State of the Union address to Congress on January 31, President Bush proposed to revise NATO's current position in the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) Negotiations to lower substantially the levels of U.S. and Soviet ground and air force manpower in Central and Eastern Europe to 195,000 on each side. Forces withdrawn will be demobilized. There would be approximately 225,000 U.S. ground and air force personnel in Europe after CFE reductions are completed. The proposal responds to rapid changes in Eastern Europe and is designed to help propel the CFE negotiations to an early conclusion in 1990. The President's initiative would supersede an earlier proposal establishing a level of 275,000 each on U.S. and Soviet ground and air force manpower stationed outside of their respective national territories in the Atlantic to the Urals region. The President has concluded that this proposal reflects the minimum level of U.S. forces needed in Europe to protect American interests and to sustain NATO's strategy of forward defense and flexible response. Even if -- as we expect -- Soviet forces in this region are reduced even further, the United States does not envision the further reduction of its forces in Europe below this new level. * * * THE WHITE HOUSE copy Geg Petersmay speechuriles WASHINGTON Chirs N. DATE: 2-2-90 TO: David Demarest FROM: ANDY CARD CARD/fundy FY.I. onthe tip today, hawan alexander mentioned to the President that UT's black basketball coach, Wade Houston (?), would be an excellent role-model to highlight. The President said he would "keep him in mind" and "make sure the staff did too." ht:60 98306 Henry A. Kissinger Old Fears and the New Germany If the West links German unification with European integration, it will defeat both. A S it has been since the 1648 tary Baker recently visited East Ger- Whatever the time scale for Ger- the East in May, in the Federal Re- Treaty of Westphalia, the future many and met with leaders with whom man unification or its nature, the di- public in December. After initially de- of Germany is again at the core of the contact had been shunned for 40 years, rection of it must be established within claring a hands-off policy, the West revolutionary changes rippling across who have been all but repudiated by the the next year. Once two German German political parties are apparent- Europe. And the reaction of the West- East German public and who even now states-especially democratic ones- ly ready to make a major effort in the ern democracies seems to prove are making it difficult for democratic become fixtures of the European equi- East German elections, because the George Bernard Shaw's aphorism that parties to organize. And the four Allied librium, German unification can be outcome might give the winner a leg "there are two tragedies in life. One is commanders jumped at a Soviet pro- pursued only at the cost of an interna- up in the West German election cam- to lose your heaft's desire. The other posal to hold for the first time since tional crisis. European politics will re- paign. Thus the same parties will is to gain it." 1971 a meeting of the so-called Kom- vert to the-patterns of the 18th and likely prevail in East Germany as in Having deplored the division of Eu- mandatura, the four-power control 19th centuries. Outside powers-es- the Federal Republic, if perhaps in rope for nearly half a century, the commission for Berlin. These gestures, pecially the Soviet Union-will be giv- different combinations. It is highly Western democracies cannot decide by treating the East German state as en an opportunity to manipulate inter- improbable that the policies toward how to relate the eruption of freedom the moral and political equivalent of the German rivalry. For the 200 years unification will-being essentially non- in Eastern Europe to the traditional on either side of the policies of Atlantic cohesion and Euro- dividing line. pean integration. Trying to pour new Therefore the appeals of Germany's wine into old bottles, they seek to allies for gradualism are curiously ir- reconcile their proclamations of the relevant, and assurances to the Soviet past with their premonitions of the Union that no effort will be made to future by formulae so ambiguous that accelerate the process could be dan- Photo Copy Preservation they can be interpreted to support gerous. In fact, the victors of World incompatible objectives. War II have no realistic method to For years, conventional wisdom de- implement their misgivings. The West- nied the existence of any problem. em allies are reduced to exhortations The Soviet grip on Eastern Europe or to threats of a Soviet option-as and especially on the German Demo- Mitterrand has been hinting. But the cratic Republic seemed unshakable. It threat is not very plausible, since in a was therefore expected that West Eu- race to Moscow, Germany is probably ropean integration would move much better placed than its neighbors. more rapidly than German unification. Events both unforeseen and unset- Soviet Union, it surely tling now belie these assumptions. Lhas the physical power to prevent Soviet power in Eastern Europe has German unification. But to do so by collapsed. The Brezhnev doctrine, force would wreck the "Gorbachev which committed the Red Army's sup- fever". in the Federal Republic on port to Communist regimes, has been which Moscow has staked SO much abandoned. These events have ex- and which it has worked hard to posed a gap between the West's de- foster. The Kremlin can also offer claratory policy and its actions which, unification in return for Germany's if not bridged, could wreck the For the 200 years prior to German loosening its Western ties. The least achievements of four deçades of West- Germany's allies can do is to avoid ern statesmanship. To be sure, Western leaders contin- unification, as many wars were providing incentives to Germany for such a course, ue to reaffirm their commitment to German self-determination. But they sparked by Germany's division as The only realistic way to moderate the pace of events and to keep Germa- all hedge their pronouncements with bysits subsequent unity. ny in the Western community is to conditions that amount to turning the come to an agreement on the desired Atlantic Alliance and European inte- outcome and then to plan together the gration into obstacles to German unifi- national states of Eastern Europe, im- prior to German unification, as many precise step to reach the goals. Like cation and, in the long term, barriers ply a Western interest in the status quo wars were sparked by Germany's divi- many. contemporaries who experi- to the pro-Western orientation of the in Germany. Over time this will gener- sion as by its subsequent unity. enced the Hitler regime. and World German state, ate a sense that German national aspi- In truth, the choice of the Western War II, would have suffered no sense British Prime Minister Margaret rations are incompatible with the West- democracies is not so great as their of deprivation had the issue of German Thatcher, for instance, has placed em orientation of the Federal Republic. unification remained in limbo for a public pronouncements suggest. For German unification at the end of a while longer. Now that it has arisen, any attempt to make progress toward process of democratization of Eastern A rticle 7 of the treaty that laid the German unification conditional on we no longer have the option of defer- Europe that includes the Soviet Union basis for German rearmament progress toward European integration ring it to a more convenient moment, and that by implication preserves the pledged the three Western powers to will defeat both-this is the weakness A faster pace of European integration East German state as a separate sov- cooperate in working toward German of the American principles. It will is highly desirable. But paradoxically it ereign entity for a period/expected to unification. In the stormy debate that sooner or later turn German national- is most likely in the context of a last 10 to 15 years. At a recent press followed, the advocates of German inte- Western plan on German unification. ism against European integration and conference, French President Fran- gration into NATO were accused by This is the best way of ensuring that Atlantic unity. And it will probably cois Mitterrand declared that Europe- their opponents of jeopardizing the ulti- European integration and the Atlantic prove counterproductive with respect- an integration should precède German mate unity of the German nation. A Alliance are not perceived in Germany to European integration by giving unification, which should take the similar-if less passionate-debate as a subterfuge for delaying unifica- those who fear German unity and are form of a special position of the Ger- took place over the issue of European tion. Particular steps can be staged not enthusiastic about European inte- man Democratic Republic within the integration. After an initial period of over a reasonable time period, 80 long gration the opportunity to kill two European Community. hesitation, all German democratic par- as the process moves toward an ac- birds with one stone. The American stand has been more ties committed themselves to Atlantic ceptable objective. complex. President Bush and Secre- Policy. cannot invent reality; it can as well as European institutions, and For all these reasons, the confed- tary of State James A. Baker III have only use it. The time frames for Ger- they have carried out their commit- eration proposal of Kohl-greeted so put forward four principles that seek man unification and European integra- ments for 40 years. lukewarmly by his allies-represents to reconcile German national aspira- tion are simply not the same. The Germany's democratic allies should the minimum compatible with German tions with allaying historic European former is driven by fundamental emo- think twice before they risk the West- aspirations and international necessi- fears: that the principle of self- tions fueled by established democratic em connection of the Federal Republic ties. Overcoming their misgivings, the determination be preserved without procedures, while the latter reflects by forcing German leaders to choose allies should develop a long-range pro- prejudice to its outcome; that German prudent calculations driven by techni- between their allies and their national gram in four stages: unification take place within the cal bureaucratic procedures. goals. They must not create a German As a first step, the elaboration of a framework of NATO and the Europe- problem in the name of avoiding it. The real choice before the Western timetable for German confederation to an Community; that unification be part Right now the West German political allies is whether they. fear German; be completed within a two-year period. of a step-by-step process and that campaign obscures these dangers, be- unity more than they prize European The Confederation should have a com- Germany reiterate its support for the cause the opposition parties have cho- integration and Atlantic cohesion. The mon foreign policy as its goal. principles of the Helsinki Act regard- sen to blame Chancellor Helmut Kohl's way to avoid German preponderance is The implementation of another ma- ing its borders. alleged heavy-handedness for the-Fed- not to ascribe to it motives contrary to jor step toward European political in- eral Republic's frustrations. But this 40 years of responsible German policy, tegration beyond what is envisaged tatesmen forget at their peril that internal quarrel is bound to be tempo- even less to divide that country. Should for 1992 should be completed within a arcane language is not in itself rary. For Kohl represents the part of Germany, against all present indica- fixed time period after the establish- reality. The gradualism being the German political spectrum most tions and common sense, seek the road ment of the German confederation. preached is not tied to any specific committed to the Western connection. of hegemony, Britain and France al- An important component of this pro- program, nor has any Western leader The alternative policy on both the left ways have the option of increasing their cess should be a specific program to defined German self-determination or and the right is likely to be far more cooperation within the framework of enable the countries of Eastern Eu- a procedure for achieving it. As a assertive. European and Atlantic institutions. And rope to enter into association with the result, the Western democracies run a In particular, the question of how to the United States would surely use its European community. huge risk of turning into partners of treat East Germany internationally influence to prevent an outcome that it Concurrent negotiation of a new the Soviet Union in defending the brooks no delay. In Eastern Europe opposed in two wars. European security system as a step status quo and in sharing in German democratic institutions are likely to toward full unification. eyes the opprobrium for the division enhance domestic stability. In the Ger- everal factors drive German unifi- The development of a program to of Germany heretofore borne solely man Democratic Republic, the opposite cation, The dissolution of Germa- move from confederation to whatever by the Soviet Union. is certain to occur; free elections will ny's internal frontiers will force the form of German unity a process of For decades the West has suspect- generate pressures for unification. No Federal Republic to move rapidly to- self-determination generates. ed Moscow of having a German card formula can alter the fact that the ward the equalization of living condi The discussion of a European se- up its sleeve, It would be ironic if the principal reason for the existence of the tions in the two parts of Germany. curity system must await another arti- West now handed that card to the East German state has been as a Com- Otherwise, a mass exodus of the East cle. For present purposes it is enough Soviets just as democracy is prevailing munist outpost of the Soviet Union. German population is: probable, ex- to stress that the opportunity to build in Eastern Europe. Of course, if the East German popu- ceeding the capacities of the Federal a trulynew international system must The danger of making the Kremlin lation desires a separate state, no coun- Republic to sustain. Common econom-, not be lost in a maze of bureaucratic and the East German Communists the try in the world would object-proba- ic policies are inevitable; a common formulae masking old fears. It re- key to German national aspirations re- bly not even the Federal Republic. But currency cannot be far behind. quires a clear vision of what lies ahead sults not only from Western pronounce- the Western nations would be taking a Another impetus will be supplied by and above all an initiative equal to the ments but also from Western actions. fateful step if they were to incite such the elections scheduled for the two; challenge before us. Bail President Millerend And Secre- AD explution by their 9wn policies parts of Germany later this year: © 1990, Los Angeles Times Syndicate CFE delays the process. We and the Soviets are now engaged in months of arduous negotiation about verification procedures, counting rules and similar ad, well 3) Bankroll democracy. It is absurd for a niceties. This week's breakthrough is a Western 1 parties. country with a $5 trillion economy to plead agreement to accept separate limits for combat planes roceeding poverty when asked for contributions of a billion FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 9, 1990 A27 nd invest- dollars or less from countries as important as and "air defense interceptors," a category of plane that until last Monday we said did not exist. riers, and Panama, Nicaragua, and Poland. President Bush's This is all quite surreal. If, as the East Europeans commer- proposal of a "Fund for Democracy"-$300 mil- Charles Krauthammer demand and as eventually must happen, the Soviets suggests lion for Nicaragua, $500 million for Panama Charles Krauthammer nd play drawn from the defense budget-is the right leave Eastern Europe completely, who needs all these he costly idea, but still too miserly. With the Soviets in Declare Victory negotiated categories and compromises? Zero is zero. The CFE process is simply prolonging the Soviet stay in What Should JS Krem- eclipse and with new democracies on the financial Eastern Europe at a time when every other force, and ideas brink, our best foreign policy investment is to bail catch up out the potential allies that have fallen into our lap natural and political, is demanding their departure. in Central America and Central Europe. We have In Vienna Bush's 195,000 proposal has a second effect just as We Defend? correctly invested $300 billion a year in defense pernicious. It perpetuates the CFE symmetry between as a way of securing our position in the world. the level of American and Soviet troops. The symmetry Why not redirect 5 percent of defense dollars into is false morally and mischievous politically. The Soviet "Tactics is what you do when there is some- a $15 billion democracy fund that could be moved And then go to the opera. troops are occupiers. American troops are there by thing to do. Strategy is what you do when there is around to shore up friends in distress? invitation of freely elected governments. nothing to do. Where to take the money from? Here is where What on Earth are we doing still at the conventional Politically the symmetry is just as noxious. The -Chess Grandmaster Savielly Tartakower one has to make some strategic guesses about talks in Vienna? Negotiations continue over how Soviet presence in East Europe is headed to zero. There is little for the United States to do in the the future. They are guesses. Because we don't arms many Soviet and American troops may remain in e is to Therefore, as long as we keep proposing equal troop world. Things are going our way SO splendidly know where future threats will come from, we Europe-in his State of the Union address, the presi- uced at levels for the United States and the U.S.S.R., we abroad that wisely we dare not interfere. Accord- might begin to reshape our defenses to conform dent proposed yet another number, 195,000 each-at a imply that the Soviet evacuation of Europe should be ingly, a great hue and cry has arisen over the with our geography. At a time when history is of time when Europe has made it abundantly clear that it in place accompanied by an American evacuation. Potomac demanding a Grand Strategy of the little help-we have as little idea what is going But Mos- wants a Soviet troop level of zero. This is a bad idea. First, because our allies want an future, Richard Gephardt and other strategic in full to happen'in the next six months as we had of The CFE (Conventional Forces in Europe) talks in American presence. Some, like the British, are quite thinkers are deeply dismayed that such a vision is what has happened over the last six-geography Moscow Vienna have been superseded by events. When they fearful that we may indeed be packing our bags. As in not forthcoming from the White House. is the best guide. We are an island continent. 21 to set Photo Preservation began there was a Warsaw Pact. There were satellite Asia, the presence of American troops is almost Great strategic visions, however, require some and start governments in Eastern Europe. It made sense to universally felt by the locals to be not a threat but a EOFFREY MOSS clear idea of what the future is going to look like. negotiate a reduction of the Soviet troop advantage kind of insurance against instability. We have no idea what the world is going to look it a missile. The worst thing we could down to a level of equality with ours. Second, a mutual Soviet and American evacuation like next year, let alone next decade. How many werful new But now everything has changed. There is no: of Europe is not a truly symmetrical act. Russia is a states will inhabit the U.S.S.R. in the year 2000, do is fund the past. Warsaw Pact. By summer there may be no East Eurasian land power. Evacuation means pulling back a for example? Very sober Sovietologists have single-war- almost three Germany. Next year there may not even be a few hundred miles behind the Polish border. For the offered me estimates ranging from eight to 14. :ted. that the Our commercial republic requires free passage U.S.S.R. The president's new proposal seems to be Soviets to return to Europe in a crisis means crashing And we know from history what happens when 0 produce an for its success. That means control of the seas, a response to the revolution of '89, but because it through a few toll booths at the Polish frontier. For / still has you devise grand strategy on a misapprehension the United States to return means crossing the presenta- of the future. Toward the end of World War II the eads. Though skies and space. cannot shake the American obsession with arms ge the balance Congress, however, would prefer to cut bases d be beset control, it is in fact a step backward. Atlantic, a 3,000-mile wide submarine lair. to Roosevelt administration thought that in the post- would want to overseas, research on space defenses, naval de- mark such Once again, arms control proves not just irrele- It is true that Americans might at some point.,, war world the United Nations would play a as possible. ployments (as well as a few sexy big-ticket items powerful central if not decisive role in international rela- vant but counterproductive. Why, after all, are we decide to leave Europe regardless. Fine. By all, perating on Feb. like the MX) and keep afloat politically popular tions. Accordingly, at Yalta, Roosevelt bargained legitimizing the presence of 195,000 Soviet troops The means, let us have a debate at home and with our Two weeks later, military bases in the American interior that have to draw a away Poland in return for Stalin's acceding to in the "Central Zone" of Eastern Europe? allies about the appropriate level, if any, of Ameri- rolled out on its absolutely no military utility. At a time when the ad saving American demands regarding people of that zone-Poland, Czechoslovakia, East voting proce- can troops in a post-Communist Europe. But that tried to turn on the country is starved for new airports and prisons, it sounds dures in the U.N.! Sometimes it's best to wait for Germany, Hungary-are quite clear as to how level should be determined by Western needs, not en the Soviets said maintaining make-work domestic military bases e starts the future before trying to shape it. many Soviet troops they want. Czechoslovakia and by arbitrary numbers chosen to produce CFE sym- ons. that could otherwise be usefully employed is a nowledg- There are, however, some very real tactical Hungary have officially asked the Soviets for a missile sat at the particularly stupid idea. metry and State of the Union applause. et threat items that ought to be on the American agenda level of zero. Lech Walesa just three weeks ng surrounded by True, there is no need for immediate deploy- What to do? Declare that the CFE negotiations in accom- and that have been getting lost in the cries for troop demanded the same for Poland. (Geno} When the Soviets ment of a space defense against the possibility of Vienna have succeeded grandly. That we and the lleviating grand strategy. Our immediate tasks are three, ago Wojciech Jaruzelski disagrees, but he is yester- the & 1) Stay in Europe. That means resisting do- J.S. technicians got Soviet attack. But now that even Iraq has Soviets are now agreed in principle to reduce our even at nmed through the launched a three-stage intercontinental rocket day's man.) And in East Germany, even forces to a ceiling of 195,000 on either side. That ormidable mestic isolationists and European, especially. be turned off. Two (and shown adeptness at chemical warfare), it Communists have now called for German reunifi we believe further reductions might be in order and : law and German, neutralists, who would have us out. cation-and a reunified Germany, whether neutralᵇ so , powers, There is no need to stay in Europe at current he path. would be folly to slacken the pace of research for should immediately be negotiated bilaterally be- force levels, but leaving it entirely would be ay be explained as some future space defense. or NATO, cannot be home to Soviet troops. tween the concerned countries. to protect V SS-25 without We have inherited from Britain, another island Yet here comes the United States saying that it isn Such a declaration would allow events to follow tance, the disastrous. The reunification of Germany is a e United States nation, the role of defender of the seas. It takes quite prepared to see 195,000 Soviet troops in nature. The Warsaw Pact countries would then seismic threat to European stability. The United States is the one Atlantic power not viscerally iet missilery as no great imagination to see that in the next countries where they are not wanted. proceed to ask the Soviets to reduce their troops to : way, but zero. And we could then conduct a conversation afraid of Germany. It is also the only one that all : new strategic century space will play the role that the high seas This legitimation of the Soviet presence undermines Idn't have have today. Forget grand strategy. Whatever the the brave East European democrats who demand an with ourselves and our allies as to how many d Reagan of Europe trusts. A strategist should always be a immediate Soviet evacuation. They are desperate to pessimist. The best insurance against an out- ney has warned shape of the world of the future, American Americans should remain on the continent. first run ere Gorbachev's destiny will be tied to its control of space and the get rid of their Soviet occupiers now while the going is:- f what is We don't need a CFE treaty or formal signing break of European instability is a continued nited States must seas. The very worst thing we could do would be good, i.e., while Gorbachev is in control. They fear that ceremony, however useful a photo opportunity it moment American presence on the continent. weekend at Vot- to fund the past, represented by redundant mili- if they wait, some calamity might intervene and cost offers a president. We should declare victory at guess is 2) Keep trade open. The difference in prosperity tary bases at home, by robbing our space and thusiasm them their historic opportunity for independence. Vienna, shake hands with the Soviets, compliment between the post-World War II and the post- Inc. naval forces of the future. him, but them on their vision and forthrightness and wish World War I era is due in large part to the ower and them well in their negotiations with their Warsaw openness of the world's trading system. The a consen- immediate task for the United States is to avoid a Pact friends. Then we all go to the opera. is no clear trade war with Japan, regardless of how attrac- Never will an arms control negotiation have tive that prospect is to American politicians ended more successfully. e to help hungry for a new-preferably nonwhite-enemy the U.S. now that the Soviets have retired from the scene, THE NEW YORK TIMES INTERNATIONAL THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 8, 1990 A13 Upheaval in the East: Baker's Prediction Arms Control Baker Cautions Soviets On Bidding Over Troops Photo Copy Preservation By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN Specialto The New York Times MOSCOW. Feb. 7 - Secretary of Speaking to reporters before his one- State James A. Baker 3d said today on-one meeting with the Secretary, Mr. that he would not be surprised if the Shevardnadze said, "The Soviet Union Soviet President, Mikhail S. Gorba- is living through a very interesting chev. proposed to cut American and period of renewal, and everybody will 'Soviet troop levels in Europe to even be able to ascertain this soon." deeper levels than those suggested last Baker aídes said that given the rau- "week by President Bush. cuos nature of the Communist Party Mr. Baker, in what appeared to be a talks, they had no idea how well the "signal to the Soviets, made clear that Soviet leadership would be able to Vashington was not inviting such a focus on the substance of the Secre- proposal and, in fact, would find it most tary's visit, which will include discus- unwelcome, because the Bush Admin- sions about German unification, new istration does not want to slash its American ideas for resolving the Af- troop levels more deeply at this time. ghan conflict and ways to advance the the same time that Mr. Baker was conventional arms talks in Vienna. cantioning Moscow not to start a bid- Speaking to reporters on the flight ding war over troop cuts in Europe, the into Moscow, Mr. Baker said he antici- "Seviet Government newspaper Izves- pated an answer from the Soviet lead- ditih was warning the Secretary of State ership to President Bush's proposal, sinet to try to take advantage of Mr. Gor- made in his State of the Union address bachev at this time of tremendous do- on Jan. 31, that the United States and mestic turmoil in the Soviet Union. the Soviet Union reduce their troop The Secretary of State flew into Mos- levels in Central Europe to 195,000 men CGW today from Prague for three days each - which would be a cut of about of talks with Foreign Minister Eduard 60,000 men for the United States and Shevardnadze and President Gorba- 370,000 for the Soviet Union. efiev. The meetings were scheduled Celling for Soviet Union ewo months ago, after President Bush and Mr. Gorbachev agreed at Malta to Brent Scowcroft, President Bush's brinspeed up the negotiations for comple- national security adviser, said at a Secretary of State James A. Baker 3d, left, said it would not surprise those suggested by President Bush. Mr. Baker and Foreign Minister #Pon of a treaty limiting long-range nu- NATO defense meeting in Munich on him if the Soviet Union sought troop cutbacks in Europe greater than Eduard A. Shevardnadze began three days of talks in Moscow. clear missiles so that it might be Saturday that Washington viewed the signed by the time of their next summit 195,000 figure as a ceiling for the Soviet Union and a floor for the United States. meeting in June. Asked if Mr. Gorbachev might try to Arrives at End of Party Talks outbid Mr. Bush and press for even Czechoslovakia Mr. Baker, however, found his ar- lower mutual reductions, especially rival coinciding with the close of a criti- since Poland, Hungary and Czechoslo- cal gathering of the Communist Party vakia have indicated that they want leadership, which has decided to give Soviet troops out now, Mr. Baker said: Prague Reclaiming Its Position at Center of Europe 2ND its monopoly on power. Mr. She- "I don't know what the Soviets might vardnadze had to leave the meeting or might not have in mind. I would only say that 1 should not be, and will not be, By HENRY KAMM has called the "velvet revolution, a How Vaclav Havel and other ended a working visit to Switzerland while it was still in progress to greet and was continuing his series of talks Mr. Baker and go over the agenda for surprised if we see such a proposal. Special to The New York Times phrase borrowed by Mr. Baker in his Czechoslovak writers have viewed speech at Charles University. The goal the role of literature in an authoritar- with Western Government ministers their talks, which will begin in earnest That is not to say that we are inviting PRAGUE, Feb. 7 - For Foreign on Thursday. one in any way. Minister Jiri Dienstbier and other, is to return this Slavic nation of dis- lan society. The Arts, page C17. and bankers in West Germany. Mr. Baker continued, "We think that Czechoslovak officials seeing off Secre- tinctly Western civilization and culture Two major ambassadorial appoint- the President's proposal is the right tary of State James A. Baker 3d at the to its central position in Europe, open hope, and will do our best to see to it, ments of recent days are further sig- one - that it stands on its own two feet to East and West. airport today, the visit was a signifi- that the time of merely formal, superfi- nals of the sharp turn in Prague's inter- NATO Chief Says and represents what should be the cant success not only for the material "First of all, the visit ended a long cial contacts without contents is over." national stance. state of play at this time." assistance Mr. Baker offered. period of frozen, nearly nonexistent Mr. Vanicek said that in line with Rita Klimova, a dissident economist Together with President Vaclav contact between America and Czecho- He Accepted Cuts Czechoslovakia's policy of ending isola- who spent seven years in the United Asked to explain why the Adminis- tration would not invite deeper cuts on Havel's trip to the United States begin- slovakia,' said Zdenek Vanicek, politi- tion from countries not in the Eastern States as a Jewish refugee from the both sides, Mr. Baker said: "Well, be- ning Feb. 20, Mr. Baker's 26 hours here cal director of the Foreign Ministry de- bloc, Foreign Minister Moshe Arens of German occupation regime, has been On Bush's Urging cause we have just made a proposal of represented a major step toward a partment dealing with the United Israel was due here on Thursday to es- named Ambassador to Washington. our own which we think is the correct principal objective in what Mr. Havel States and other Western nations. 'We tablish full diplomatic ties. Before The appointment of Rudolf Slansky, proposal and it is not up to us to go to Prague severed ties during the Arab- also a dissident, as Ambassador to the the Soviet Union inviting amendments Israeli war of 1967, the two nations did Soviet Union will soon be announced: By MICHAEL R. GORDON not have relations at the ambassa- Mr. Slansky is the son and namesake of Special to The New York Times to the President's proposal." dorial level. the former general secretary of the WASHINGTON, Feb. 7 - The com- Mr. Baker's remarks would seem to have a personal, political and strategic Czechoslovakia will be the second Communist Party who was hanged as a mander of NATO forces in Europe told dimension. Personally, the last time he formerly Communist nation to normal- "bourgeois Jewish nationalist" in 1952 Congress today that he had recom- visited Moscow in May 1989, Mr. Gor- ize relations with Israel. Hungary did after a Soviet-inspired show trial. mmmended against President Bush' pro- compusal 10 cut American and Soviet bachev appeared to catch him off so last year. props in central Europe to 195,000. but guard by proposing a unilateral with- Ties With Vatican Improve later persuaded that such 3 drawal of 500 nuclear weapons from Havel to Address Congress Mr. Vanicek said Czechoslovakia our own which me - 31 20032 proposal and it is not up to us to go to Prague severed ties during the Arab- also a dissident, as Ambassador to the brie 21.6' ogo TCC By MICHAEL R. GORDON the Soviet Union inviting amendments Israeli war of 1967, the two nations did Soviet Union will soon be announced.- not have relations at the ambassa- Mr. Slansky is the son and namesake of III bells Specialto The New York Times to the President's proposal." Mr. Baker's remarks would seem to dorial level. the former general secretary of the WASHINGTON, Feb. 7 - The com- insormander of NATO forces in Europe told have a personal, political and strategic Czechoslovakia will be the second Communist Party who was hanged formerly Communist nation to normal- 'bourgeols Jewish nationalist' in 1952 ns 21 Eongress today that he had recom- dimension. Personally, the last time he ize relations with Israel. Hungary did after a Soviet-inspired show trial. to olderanded against President Bush's pro- visited Moscow in May 1989, Mr. Gor- ansinDosal American and Soviet bachev appeared to catch. him off so last year. in central-Europe to 195,000, but guard by proposing a unilateral with- Ties With Vatican Improve Havel to Address Congress of jddiad,been later persuaded that such a drawal of 500 nuclear weapons from Mr. Vanicek said Czechoslovakia cut was acceptable. Eastern Europe and by making a far- also was pleased by a rapid improve- WASHINGTON Feb. 7 (Reuters) - don't think it is talking out of reaching conventional arms reduction ment in its notoriously bad relations President Havel is to address a joint, 697659hool to say that my recommenda- offer. with the Vatican. In a sign of the Im- meeting of Congress on Feb. 21 during -IA stions were higher," Gen. John R. Gal- Mr. Baker found himself showered provement after decades of repression his trip to the United States, Speaker of 6 NATO's Supreme Allied Com- with articles depleting him as novice of the Roman Catholic Church here, the the House Thomas S. Foley and the who was outmaneuvered and taken by Senate Democratic leader, George J. -bc organder, told the Senate Armed Serv- Rev. Roberto Tucci, a senior Vatican -X26 aces Committee. surprise by Mr. Gorbachev. He and his official, arrived in Prague on the same Mitchell, said today. In November. the -10 nuovin announcing Mr. Bush's troop-cut staff have made it clear that there is day as Mr. Baker to organize an April Polish Solidarity leader, Lech Walesa, -olasRroposal, the White House said the plan virtually nothing the Soviet leader visit by Pope John Paul II. addressed a joint meeting of Congress was the product of thorough consulta- could propose this time around that Mr. Vanicek disclosed that the Gov- and received an ecstatic reception. liquidian among senior American leaders they have not anticipated, including ernment had informed Mr. Baker that to no89d within NATO, giving no hint of further troop cuts. it was removing a long-festering irrl- Politically, the Bush Administration Soviets Ask Czechs on the part of American tant in relations with the United States. nachmilitary officials. is in the middle of a campaign to stop On May 6, Mr. Baker was told, celebra- orit sciBut a Pentagon official, who asked the Democrat-dominated Congress tions will be held in the industrial city To Extend the Time to be identified, said the proposal from slashing the proposed defense of Pilsen and elsewhere to mark the was devised by a small group of offi- budget for fiscal 1991. Any headline- 45th anniversary of the liberation of Photo Copy Preservation cials and that General Galvin was con- grabbing proposal by Mr. Gorbachev western Bohemia by the United States To Pull Out Troops sulted very late in the process. would only add to the arguments of Army. General Galvin told reporters after those favoring spending less on de- To maintain a fiction that only the testifying before the Senate Armed fense. Soviet Union had freed Czechoslovakia MOSCOW, Feb. 7 (Reuters) - The Soviet Union told Czechoslovakia today Services Committee that he was con- Seen as a Minimum from German occupation, the Commu- that ft needed more time to withdraw sulted by Gen. Colin L. Powell, the nists since they seized power in 1948 chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Strategically, the Bush Administra- had forbidden such tributes to the the 75,000 Soviet troops in in that coun- "days" before President Bush's State tion is convinced that 195,000 men is the United States and removed plaques of try, East European diplomats said. minimum number of troops the United They said the Soviet side made its the Union speech announcing the gratitude that had been mounted in States needs in Europe at this time, stand clear when a second round of troop-cut proposal. various places. Many have been hidden Even though his recommendation for both to deter any potential threat that talks on the withdrawal issue opened in by citizens and are to be replaced. higher troop levels were rejected, Gen- could arise from an increasingly unsta- Moscow between delegations headed The urgency that Czechoslovakia at- 709 eral Galvin said that he was pleased by ble Soviet Union and in order to reas- by deputy foreign ministers of the two taches to creating normal relations countries. isior Mr. Bush's proposal. He had been per- sure America's allies that Washington with the West was put into sharp focus is not abandoning them just at the mo- In a first round of talks in Prague Csuaded, he said, by General Powell that for Mr. Baker as he arrived here Tues: -lim ht "had not given enough credit to the ment when a resurgent, reunfied Ger- last month, Czechoslovakia's new Gov- day morning. His official host, Mr. many appears to be a real possibility in ernment told Soviet negotiators it dellesituation that would exist when the Dienstbier, was not at the airport to you Soviet Union moved forces out of East- the heart of the Continent. wanted the troops, which have been in But if Mr. Baker is worried about welcome him but was himself arriving the country since the Warsaw Pact in- UNITED Europe as a result of various ar- in Stockholm for day's visit to restore being upstaged by Mr. Gorbachev, it vasion of 1968, to leave this year. rangements with the Warsaw Pact,' good relations. Until the overthrow of appears the Soviet leaders are no less Czechoslovak officials say they have 6 not referring to the call by leaders in the Communist regime here, Sweden Hungary and Poland worried-about what the :Americans no doubt the Soviet leadership has might be carrying in their-briefcases. took a hard line against Czechoslova- made the political decision to withdraw 26d for the withdrawal of Soviet troops. Aleksandr Bovin, a prominent Soviet kia to protest its persecution and im- and bGeneral Galvin said in his testimony the troops. political commentator, wrote today in prisonment of dissidents like Mr. Havel -basithat implementating Mr. Bush's pro- Associated Press and Mr. Dienstbier. But according to the East European vd loposal would lead to the closing of 50 Izvestia that the Americans, are well aware that the transformation in the History for Sale in Berlin Next week, the Foreign Minister will diplomats, Moscow argues that it installations in Europe. He visit New York as guest of the Council needs more time to provide housing after said a reduction to 195,000 troops east of Europe, and conflicts and diffi- A street vendor in West Berlin near the Brandenburg Gate selling uni- culties within the U.S.S.R., weaken the on Foreign Relations. and social services for the returning would lead NATO to put emphasis on positions and narrow the room for forms and decorations of the East German Army to passers- by He also It was also announced today that Fi- officers and men and their families, highly maneuverable units to carry out offered pieces of the Berlin wall. nance Minister Vaclav Klaus had' whose numbers will be swollen by srts rebate defense plans. maneuver of the Soviet leadership: others to be withdrawn from Hungary. even Czechoslovak officials declined to 02/6 comment on the first day of the talks, Jaum but odt ".mail State Dept. Dismisses Besieged Envoy, Telling Him He Is a Security Risk but one Czechoslovak source indicated Prague's Deputy Foreign Minister, Evzen Vacek, was insisting the one- bewolls year timetable be observed. 16df time Continued From Page Al short of filing criminal charges, which Selin, ordered the dismissal in the last whose European movements were "That is the Czechoslovak stand and the available evidence does not sup- The department few days. being followed. there seems to be no reason to change aid bris port, law enforcement officials say. If Mr. Bloch is dismissed next month, Mr. Bloch was immediately placed it," the source said. The Soviet Union is losing time by delaying a decision to would then have the option of taking For the State Department, Mr. removes Felix the State Department would consider under heavy Federal surveillance, and V6W4H matter to Federal court. It was un- Bloch's dismissal was also dictated taking action under another law to re- his automobile and telephone were start the withdrawal.' bica -97 10 clear today what Mr. Bloch would do. financial considerations. Officials wiretapped. Government officials said The Czechoslovak sources said they noted that Mr. Bloch receives an Bloch from its duce or eliminate his pension, the Ad- ministration official said. the automobile wiretap later recorded feared public feeling over the with- airfT Bloch's lawyer, John M. Bray, said $80,000-a-year salary for a job he, is Mr. Bloch telling his wife, Lucille, that drawal issue could be increased after Mr. Bloch was the second-ranking bris vis client had no comment. Mr. Bloch barred from performing. payroll. American diplomat in Vienna during he had accepted money from the Soviet the explosion by Soviet forces of an am- -ri sadid, not answer the telephone at his much of the Reagan Administration. In Union. munition dump in the southeast Tues- 101 bdome near downtown Washington An Eerle Composure that job, he effectively ran day-to-day Numerous press and television re- day, causing a forest fire. Through it all, the balding, year- embassy affairs in a city that is a cen- Prague's Defense Ministry said the said today that the State Department ports said the inquiry also turned up -97 vilei Trail Growing Cold old bureaucrat has maintained an eerie had not previously used the law, and ter for sensitive arms negotiations and Soviet action was a violation of regula- evidence that Mr. Bloch had. spent composure, repeatedly declining op- tions. Issoqc The State Department and the Fed- portunities to deny that he was a Soviet that its last known use, in 1983, was by other strategic matters. large sums of money, well beyond the ti 100% Bureau of Investigation said today spy and challenging Federal investiga- the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. normal means of a mid-level diplomat, VO bathat the inquiry into allegations of es- Charges Go Back to 70's State Department lawyers have been for the services of a prostitute during A Freudian Dream Come True -moob by Mr. Bloch remains active. tors to find enough evidence to prove studying the agency's options under Since 1988, he had worked in a Wash- much of his stay in Vienna. otherwise. Government officials have conceded, Ington office that deals with European PRIBOR, Czechoslovakia, Feb. 7 A State Department spokesman, the law since at least last autumn, an The Soviet agent appears to have Administration official said today. economic relations and restrictions on (Reuters) - A square in Pribor that however, that they so far lack the evi- Richard Boucher, today refused to de- cryptically told Mr. Bloch in a tele- once honored Stalin is to be renamed venT to make a court case against the export of technology to the old scribe the specific allegations of phone conversation last May that he after the Czechoslovak town's most fa- wrongdoing that led to the decision to 'A Complicated Issue' Soviet bloc nations. ngis their target and that his trail grows was under surveillance by the F.B.I. mous son, Sigmund Freud. The state each day. dismiss Mr. Bloch, saying those "It's a pretty complicated legal issue American officials have said they be- Shortly after the tip, the State Depart- press agency said an opinion poll in the liazoq Federal officials said they were not charges are confidential under Federal because it involves balancing the na- lieve that Mr. Bloch began spying for ment suspended Mr. Bloch, took away north Moravian town showed most of myradismissing Mr. Bloch in the hope that privacy laws. He said the agency had tional security and due process," the Moscow in the 1970's, when he was an his diplomatic passport and barred its inhabitants wanted Stalin Square to 01 >ashe move would produce additional evi- notified the Justice Department and official said. "We do feel like we moved officer at American embassies in West him from the agency's headquarters. be named after the founder of psychoa- a of wrongdoing through adminis- Congress of its decision. promptly in terms of the work that had and East Berlin. But officials said he Last July, reporters detected the nalysis. Freud, born in Pribor in 1856, instrative hearings, court battles, or other The Federal law covering Mr. to be done, but cautiously. came under scrutiny by the Federal heavy surveillance, and a horde of moved to Vienna where he pioneered descrips he might take to contest the ac- Bloch's case allows the removal of em- Mr. Baker decided last week to in- Bureau of Investigation only last writers and photographers joined Fed- analysis of the subconscious mind. He PM Glion. Dismissal is the strongest action ployees "in the interests of national se- voke the Federal law, and the agency's spring, when he turned up in a secret eral agents in a round-the-clock siege fled when Hitler annexed Austria in no taken against Mr Bloch curity An Administration official under secretary for management. Ivan videotape of a known Soviet agent of Mr. Bloch's home. 1938. He died in London in 1939. THE NEW YORK TIMES INTERNATIONAL THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 8, 1990 A12 Upheaval in the East: Bush's Wariness History The President Earlier Viewson the Party Striking a Defensive Tone, LENIN A Victory for a Faction 0th party congress; 1921 Bush Sees Virtue in Caution Our party is the governmental party, and the Silenced 70 Years Ago Photo Copy Preservation resolution which the party congress adopts will be By CONSTANCE L. HAYS By ANDREW ROSENTHAL obligatory for the entire Special to The New York Times republic. On a visit to the United States in 1959, temporary political figure to consult the Soviet party leader, Nikita S. Khru- about the Mensheviks' ideals. "When SAN FRANCISCO, Feb. Deliber- tion and its impact on the military bal- shchev, was asked about the Menshe- talk. to my Soviet colleagues, most of ately avoiding any comment on the ance. viks, the minority faction of Russian them have no idea what the Menshe- events in the Soviet Union, President "Every morning, I receive an intelli- revolutionaries who broke with Lenin viks were saying," Professor Brovkin Bush struck a remarkably defensive gence briefing, and I receive the best information available to any world largely because they thought the new said. "It's a remarkable example of tone toward his policy on Eastern Eu- leader today,' Mr. Bush said in his order they were plotting should counte- how the memory was manipulated and rope today, saying "the world is mov- nance other parties and some demo- the entire political history of Soviet ing too fast" for him to know what will speech. "And yet, the morning news is cratic dissent. Russia was wiped out." happen next and make firm decisions often overtaken by the news that very MOLOTOV "Mensheviks? They' like the buffa- Walter Sablinsky, an associate pro- about how to respond. same evening." "The world is moving too fast to fore- Oth party congress 1921 10," the Soviet leader said, referring to fessor of Russian history at the Univer- "We must not let impatience born of a species herthought extinct. sity of Virginia, said the Mensheviks euphoria jeopardize all we hope to cast with absolute certainty what will Liquidation of petit Indeed, after the split in 1903, mem- would have approved of the latest achieve," Mr. Bush said in a speech happen next," he said. bourgeois parties was one of bers of this group were gradually changes in Moscow. "This is exactly here. He traced his own world view As outlined in the speech, Mr. Bush's vision of his role in what he likes to call the basic conditions of pushed from revolutionary circles, and what they wanted," he said. "They did from the policy of containment and the socialist construction after Lenin and the Bolsheviks pre- not have the kind of party Lenin did. "realism born of bloody experience" "the revolution of '89'' is not as a that he said framed the policies of their roots reach down to the vailed they were sent into exile. The Lenin wanted a party subordinate to leader of the charge, but a custodian Presidents "from Harry Truman to bourgeois classes of the last known Menshevik, Boris Sapir, one person." tasked with holding together the old died late last year in Amsterdam. And When the Mensheviks became the Ronald Reagan." mechanisms of international security country, and with the those the role of these people has been ex- opposition party and began gaining on "We are taking the first steps across until a new order clearly emerges. roots they become involved punged from Soviet history books for the Bolsheviks, they were outlawed a bridge begun by others long ago, and Better Cautious Than Reckless with the ruling classes who decades. Professor Sablinsky said. it is a bridge that can lead us from Our challenge is to manage this dominated in the past. But the three-day debate just com- "Certainly the Mensheviks: could seemingly endless conflict to the prom- period of transition from the world of pleted by the Central Committee in have worked within the system now,' ise of a lasting peace," Mr. Bush said. Moscow had uncanny echoes of the ar- he said. "They would have been reha- "But no matter how great the promise, today to the world of tomorrow," he we must be certain the bridge is se- said. "When it comes to the security of gument between the Mensheviks and bilitated." this country I would rather be called STALIN Bolsheviks over how much democracy Still, some scholars say there are dis- cure." From his writings in 926 Communists can accept. tinct differences between what Mr. the speech to the Commonwealth cautious than I would be called reck- Gorbachev has defined and what the Club, a civic organization, Mr. Bush less." A Minority Was Silenced 'In our country not a single Mensheviks believed. 103 Mr. Bush added: "The President of The Mensheviks their name "In a way, Gorbachev is way ahead the United States is the Commander in important political or means minority, while Bolshevik of them in terms of being unideological Chief, bound by the Constitution to de- organizational question means majority - came into being in the rhetoric he uses,' said Alexan 'I would rather be fend and protect the United States of decided by our Soviet and after 1903 as the faction opposite Lenin der Dallin, a professor of history at America. Now, some would have me other mass organizations in the Russian Social Democratic Stanford University whose father called cautious predicate the defense of our people on without guiding directions Labor Party. They cooperated with the David, was a leading Menshevik. "In promising, but as yet unfulfilled, hopes for the future." from the party. Bolsheviks during the unsuccessful 1918. they thought they were good 1905 revolution, but Bolshevik efforts to Marxists. Gorbachev has been able to than I would be He paused and said, "I will not do wrest party control away from them depart from that. that. strained relations between the two called reckless. The tentative, sometimes even hesi- groups. tant, nature of Mr. Bush's comments After the Bolsheviks seized power in Albanian-Americans was perhaps most evident in his han- 1917, the Mensheviks tried to function dling of the Communist Party Central as the legal opposition. But they were sought to rebut critics who have sug- Committee meeting in Moscow that to- BREZHNEV outlawed in 1922. Many party members Rally at White House gested that his Administration has day endorsed President Mikhail S. Gor- November 1967, the 50th fled the Soviet Union, but others re- been a mere onlooker as the events the bachev's proposal to end the party's mained to work in Soviet institutions. United States has sought for four dec- constitutional monopoly on power. At anniversary of the Bolshevik Special to The New York Times 'Everything they argued for in 1919 ades unfold in Eastern Europe. first, White House officials said Mr. revolution is finally being debated today,' said WASHINGTON, Feb. 7 A group of The Avalanche of Headlines Bush would comment on the dramatic events in his speech, but the President We do not and cannot have Vladimir N. Brovkin, a scholar special- Albanian-Americans began three days But his remarks were shot through izing in Menshevism at the George F. of demonstrations today in front of the with the sense of a President who has later decided to omit any reference to any political organization Kennan Institute for Advanced Rus- White House urging the Bush Adminis the Moscow meeting, alluding only to other than the Ulthat sian Studies in Washington. "They tration to ask the Government of Yugo found himself under siege as each "the march of freedom and democracy would take into account the were destroyed, but their ideals live on. slavia to stop the killing of ethnic Alba day's headlines threaten to outstrip not only longstanding policy, but even the in Eastern Europe, even in the Soviet Interests and specific If start reading to you their program nians in the Kosovo region. arms control proposals and political Union itself." features of the classes and of 1919, you would think it was written According to reports from Yugosla Asked why Mr. Bush would not men- in Moscow last week.' via, 29 ethnic Albanians have beer initiatives that the White House has tion this week's events in a speech that social groups in our country killed in the last two weeks in clashes in been struggling to produce to keep of all nations and Yuli Martov, a Menshevik leader be- discusses the history of Soviet-Amer- pace with events in Europe. ican relations in great detail, the White nationalities, and of all fore World War I, described the Kosovo between ethnic Albanians and Yugoslav security forces. A year ago In a sign of the urgency of those generations, and that would group's position on pluralism when he events, the White House announced to- House spokesman, Marlin Fitzwater, 28 ethnic Albanians were killed in wrote SOOR after the split, "As before. said the President wanted "to be care- combine these Interests in its Kosovo in similar clashes. day that Mr. Bush would meet this the Central Committee regards the ful not to involve ourselves in the inter- Ethnic Albanians make up 90 percent weekend at Camp David with Manfred policy.' people's sovereignty, unlimited democ- nal affairs of the Soviet Union.' Wörner, secretary general of NATO, racy, as the only political form in which of the population of Kosovo, which is an autonomous province in the republic 0 and on Feb. 24-25 with the West Ger- Avoiding 'Dumb Things' GORBACHEV the social emancipation of the prole- Serbia. Since 1981, the ethnic Albanians man Chancellor, Helmut Kohl. Mr. Asked by a member of the audience tariat can be prepared and realized.' how the United States could help Mr. Party meeting, Sept. 28 have been demanding either a separate Kohl and the West German Foreign On Monday, the Soviet President, Mi- cold. in republic in Yugoslavia or the right to and on Feb. 24-25 with the West Ger- Avoiding "Dumb Things' racy, as the only political form in which of the population of Kosovo, which is an man Chancellor, Helmut Kohl. Mr. GORBACHEV the social emancipation of the prole- autonomous province in the republic of Asked by a member of the audience tariat can be prepared and realized." Serbia. Since 1981, the ethnic Albanians Kohl and the West German Foreign how the United States could help Mr. Party meeting 28 On Monday, the Soviet President, Mi- have been demanding either a separate Minister, Han-Dietrich Genscher, are Gorbachev's efforts to reform his coun- 1989 khall S. Gorbachev, said: The party in republic in Yugoslavia or the right to traveling to Moscow this weekend to try, Mr. Bush said, "I think we can reassure Soviet leaders about the ac- a renewing society can exist and play join neighboring Albania. avoid doing dumb things. The party was and remains its role as vanguard only as a demo- The demonstrators in Lafayette celerating pace of German reunifica- "The last thing I think any U.S. citi- the main organizing and cratically recognized force. Park, mostly from the Detroit area, zen needs to do when you have the Cen- coordinating force capable of The Communist Party, Mr. Gorba- gathered under the auspices of the Al- tral Committee meeting is to try to leading the people along the chev added, "intends to struggle for the banian-American National Council, a fine-tune it from San Francisco or from path of In-depth socialist status of the ruling party, but it will do recently formed group, which also ad- Washington," he said. "If want to be changes of playing an so strictly within the framework of the dressed a letter to President Bush ask- very careful about picking winners or democratic process by giving up any ing him "to use the prestige of your of- losers or saying how they should do Integrating and rallying role society and;let us be blunt legal and political advantages, offering fice to stave off Impending catasto- things." its program and defending it in discus- phe. Outlining his national security policy, about it, of proventing and sions, cooperating with other social and Djok Martini, head of the council, Mr. Bush hotly criticized Democrats in fundesirable, dramatic fum of political forces, always working among said, "We are here for the salvation of Congress who advocate deeper. reduc- avents the masses, living by their interests our people.' The handful of demonstra- tions than he has proposed in American and their needs.' tors, carrying Albanian and American troops in Western Europe. America's allies, Mr. Bush said, "don't want to see There is virtually no historical flags, shouted slogans denouncing the Photo Copy Preservation President of Serbia, Slobodan Milosev- the United States pull. back ínto what record in the Soviet Union for a con- The New York Ic, as "a madman, 57 would be perceived worldwide as some Inz kind of neo-isolationist decoupling.' Mr. Bush reaffirmed his commit- ment to the "Star Wars" program to China 801 develop a space-based anti-missile 1-2 shield. !we He spoke of "new threats" that go "beyond the traditional East-West an- Chinese Press Is Silent on Gorbachev Plans to End Party Monopoly at tagonism of the past 45 years," includ- ing "Libyan and Iranian terrorism" and "the narco-gangsters, already a threat to our national health and By SHERYL WuDUNN A solemn-faced newscaster, against openness in China's political system. the document said. spirit." Special to York Times a stark-gray background, read the long Along with the absence of any news re- China has eight tiny democratic par- Mr. Bush offered a strong defense of text of a Communist Party document porting about events in Moscow, the ties, whose combined members' total the Pentagon's proposal to consider BEIJING, Feb. 7 - Chinese readers issued internally on Dec. 30 that timing of the document's release also about 300,000, compared with the Com- closing dozens of military bases discovered today that a Soviet organi- zation had awarded a medal to a fa- praised China's multiparty coopera- seemed to indicate a concern over the munist Party's membership of 48 mil- around the country, an idea that has tion, as it is known here, and called for situation in the Soviet Union. News lion. Although those parties: relish touched off a political storm in Con- mous Chinese writer for fostering cul- democratic party members to assume about Eastern Europe been se- greater influence, they disavow any tural relations, but they did not learn a gress. more leading posts in the Government. lectively reported. thought of competing with the Commu- word about President Mikhail S. Gor- Criticism of Congress Late tonight, the official New China "The system of multiparty coopera- nists. bachev's plan to abolish the Commu- News Agency issued a summary of an tion under the leadership of the Com- Communist leaders have called for a "I ask the Congress to join me in a nist Party's monopoly on power in the Soviet Union. editorial comment on the document munist Party as practiced in China is a greater role for democratic parties, spirit of fairness,' he said. "Long- that will appear in People's Daily on characteristic and strong point of the but the increase in influence, if any, has standing critics of defense spending The official Chinese-language press Thursday. The editorial calls on Com- country's political system," the docu- been significantly limited, and such should not turn around and block the has also been silent on recent news munist Party members to carefully ment said, according to a paraphrase parties have no real power. The lead- closing of a base in their home district. about demonstrations in Moscow for a multiparty system, and the closest that study the document, which it says was by the New China News Agency. ers envision continued firm control by There is something a little ironic about the result of a combined effort between The document, however, was cau- the Communist Party, with the friendly certain members of Congress whose Chinese leaders came to hinting that the Communist and democratic par- tious about any similarities that might assistance of other political parties. philosophy seems to be 'make deep there was great change next door was be drawn between China' political sys- Caution Toward Gorbachev" cuts, but cut somewhere else. an announcement on television tonight ties. President Bush holding model tem and those of other countries. "It is Mr. Bush was asked by a member of about efforts by Chinese leaders to im- The release of the internal document, The document pointed out that the of a satellite given to him yester- fundamentally different from the mul- his audience why he felt it necessary to prove China's system of "multiparty which may not originally have been In- democratic parties are not only under tiparty system or bipartisan system in day as he toured the Lawrence hold a four-nation conference on drug cooperation," involving several very tended for publication at this time, ap- Communist Party leadership, but also the Western capitalist countries, and Livermore National Laboratory trafficking in Colombia on Feb. 15, de- small parties that are under the leader- peared to be an indirect attempt by are "in favor of socialism" and must also differs from the one-party system in Livermore, Calif. spite concerns about security. ship of the Communist Party, Chinese leaders to highlight a relative work "for the cause. of socialism.' practiced in some socialist countries," Political parties that "endanger the state power are absolutely not allowed to exist," the document said. Chinese officials privately admit that Trade the leadership has indicated a cautious attitude toward Mr. Gorbachev and his changes. Negotiations Are to Begin on Ending Restrictions Against Soviet Imports "We can't condemn him right away, but we can't support him either said a Chinese official who was aware of re- cent events in the Soviet Union: "This those within the Administration who By CLYDE H. FARNSWORTH adopted since the 1930's stressed, the United States hopes to Vanik curbs, which Congress wrote news must be spread very slowly and Special to The New York Times "encourage economic reform" within into the Trade Act of 1974. The linkage really want to limit consultations with American trade officials said the carefully. Otherwise it might cause in- United States would also have some de- the Soviet Union as it moves toward a to Soviet emigration policies caused this committee or Congress" and "I WASHINGTON, Feb. - The first mands, seeking commitments by the more market-driven economy. Moscow in early 1975 to abort that want to see the consultation require- stability, and that would not be good for China. round of talks on a trade agreement that could end nearly a half-century of Soviets on protection of patents, copy- A. successful agreement) she also trade pact; which had been under ne- ment lived up to. Mrs. Hills insisted that "there is no Although China has not officially re- rights and other intellectual property, noted, will "create opportunities" for gotiation for two years. American discrimination against mechanics for settling commercial dis- American business in the Soviet Union. Under Jackson-Vanik, tariffs on Im- question in my mind that this Adminis- ported on Mr. Gorbachev's proposal, Chinese officials have learned about it Soviet imports will start on Monday in Congressional sensitivity fover con- ports from the Soviet Union are as tration wants to consult." Washington, the United States trade putes; safeguards for preventing One problem is how the Congress is through internal documents issued by tents of the agreement and the process representative, Carla A. Hills, an- surges of cheap imports, and the right much as 10 times higher than they to have offices for American represent- would be from most other countries. going to review the trade agreement the Chinese Government. Those docu- by which Congress will review it was nounced today. following the se-called Chadha decision ments disclosed the text in translation atives in the Soviet Union. evidenced by particularly close ques- For American consumers, ending the Both Governments hope to conclude Mrs. Hills announced the talks dur- tioning of Mrs. Hills by Senator Lloyd curbs would mean, for example, $1.25 of the Supreme Court in 1983, which de- of Mr. Gorbachev's speech on the open- off the retail price of a bottle of vodka, clared a legislative veto illegal. ing day of the session of the party's the talks before President Bush meets ing testimony on trade matters before Bentsen, Democrat of Texas and chair- which is one of the big Soviet exports to Under Jackson-Vanik, approval of a Central Committee on Monday. They with President Mikhail S. Gorbachev of the Senate Foreign Relations Commit- man of the Senate Finance Committee. Noting the importance of maintain- trade agreement that restores most fa- also included translations of foreign the Soviet Union in June. tee. She said Yurly N. Chumakov, a the United States. Soviet deputy foreign trade minister, ing close consultations with Congress, vored nation treatment would require news reports and analyses of the situa- Moscow would like an end to the re- The United States is considering a concurrent resolution an act of tion in the Soviet Union and the possi- he said that if the Nixon Administra- strictions under the law would lead the Soviet delegation. granting waivers on im- ports from Czechoslovakia, Romania; Congress that is not signed by the bility that Mr. Gorbachev would resign. Mrs. Hills said she intended to keep tion had kept Congress better informed of 1974, which prevents the Soviet President. The resolution would be sub- Ordinary Chinese, without access to pressure on Japan, South Korea and in the early 1970's while it was negoti- Union from receiving most favored na- Bulgaria and East Germany. Hungary other trading partners to open markets ating a trade agreement with Moscow, ject to the approval of the Senate and such documents, also may learn about tion status, or normal tariff treatment recently obtained a waiver. The curbs the House. events in the Soviet Union by listening to American exports, but apart from the Bush Administration would not now against Poland were lifted in 1987. have to deal with the existing limita- Senator Bentsen, the 1988 Demo- But under Chadha, lawyers say, this to "Voice of America" or the British on imports from it, until it adopts an open emigration policy. Most favored the Soviet trade announcement she cratic Vice-Presidential candidate, procedure is probably unconstitutional Broadcasting Corporation, as well as made no major disclosures. tions on Soviet trade. nation status gives countries the bene- fits of tariff reductions that have been Through the negotiations, she This was a reference to the Jackson- said he understood that "there are because it could amount to a legislative Moscow's own radio broadcasts trans- veto. lated into Chinese. THE NEW YORK TIMES INTERNATIONAL THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 8, 1990 A11 Upheaval in the East: Moscow's Cynics, Washington's Hopefulness Moscow 0104d Skepticism in the Street Copy And No Excited Crowd ШУТ TACC СОБОКИ HE By ESTHER B. FEIN ИМЕЕТ Special to The New York Times Preservation MOSCOW, Feb. 7 On the day the and ordinary Muscovites cutting Communist Party's leaders voted through the center of town. with near unanimity to forswear the Most of these people, and others in- political monopoly their party has TAΓO ПРАВА terviewed at bus stops, a bakery, the HA ЛОЖЬ held for more than 70 years, Red central farmer's market and on the Square was void of anxious, inter- city's streets, shared Mrs. Zaslav- ested citizens waiting for a sign of skaya's skepticism about the effect democracy to rise from behind the that the decision today would have on towering brick walls of the Kremlin. their lives. There were none of the crowds that 'Robbed of Our Belief' swarmed outside Government build- mgs in Czechoslovakia and Poland "Some apparatchik might lose his and East Germany, as the leaders office and his car, maybe, but I won't within listened to the sounds of reality get them," said Roman Myasnikov, and voted to end Communist domina- who was buying mandarin oranges at fion in those countries. Here there the central market. "Maybe I am to were no placards, no banners, no blame, after all. I am not out there hands clasped in unified defiance. demonstrating and demanding What should stand here and wait change the way people did in Prague. for?" said Zinaida Zaslavskaya, a But after 70 years of Communism, we bakery worker from the northern out- have been robbed of our belief that we skirts of Moscow, as she trudged can bring about change:" across the cobbled square at dusk. The aging Georgian woman selling "You think this pluralism is going to Mr. Myasnikov his precious fruit, long absent from state-run stores and available at the market only for a steep price, chastised her customer Associated Press You think this is for his dour pessimism. Demonstrators gathered outside the offices of the Soviet press agency Tass to protest its coverage of the demonstration for reform held Sunday. "Do you think the party changed its Eastern Europe? mind about holding power because it wanted to?" she challenged him. "They understand that it's the peo- I can tell you, ple's will, and they hear our voices Washington even if they're not very loud. After it is not.' Romania, their hearing improved.' There were many people, like the orange seller, who approved and even applauded the Communist leader- A Sense. of Wonder Among the Mere Bystanders be somehow visible today, or tombr- ship's vote today. A woman waiting in row, or any time soon? You think this the slush on the main ring road that is Eastern Europe? can tell you, it is By MAUREEN DOWD axes to the Berlin Wall as East Ger- might be a healthy turn of events. The Democrats tried to take credit, encircles the city said that "opposi- Special to The New York Times man guards smiled for the camera, The imperial city of Washington has pointing to the assessment of Strobe not. tion was the only way to achieve said Peggy Noonan, the speechwriter been taken aback by history because She shrugged at the imposing Spas- movement.' Abolishing the Commu- WASHINGTON, Feb. 7 - Some Talbot, a Time editor, that the crum- nist Party's special status, she said, people were thunderstruck. Others for Ronald Reagan who wrote many it thinks that it must help the world bling of Communism proved that sky tower of the Kremlin, at the uni- were numb, unable to absorb one of the former President's most biting turn on its axis," she said. "Perhaps "the doves in the Great Debate of the formed guards saluting the flurry of was the only way to begin a serious official black limousines whizzing out more remarkable blow to Commu- Evil Empire denunciations. it's salutory to know that the world past 10 years were right all along." and widespread opposition move- The day symbolized, for many peo- can change without our permission or the gate, their comfortable back seats ment here. nism. Many were wary, waiting to see ple in this self-absorbed capital, the encouragement." Weinberger 'Gratified' filled by the very people who had But she echoed the thoughts of if Mikhail S. Gorbachev could "stay sense that Washington is more and A top Soviet analyst in the Govern- But Caspar W. Weinberger, the for- voted away their own guarantee of many who questioned the motivation one step ahead of the sheriff," as the: more a bystander to world events ment, who not long ago was predict- mer Reagan Defense Secretary who power. conservative columnist Robert behind the party's change of heart. Novak put it. rather than player. ing Mr. Gorbachev's removal and a pushed to build up American military A History of Dictators Was it a trick? "We're not part of history in Wash- police-state crackdown, echoed the forces to counteract the Soviet threat, "The only reason the Communist There was skepticism from the ington," said Representative Charles sense that the world seemed to be said he felt personally gratified and 'There is nobody in this country, nobody, who has ever experienced Party is doing this now is because the right, money-making schemes from E. Schumer, the Brooklyn Democrat. spinning out of America's control. was astonished that anyone would economy is so bad and they don't the Fortune 500 crowd, and a reluc- true democracy not those powerful want to be responsible any more for tant and cautious response from the "We just watching history.' "The whole Soviet world is going have the chance to say such things in men inside and not any of us out President, who always frets that any Mr. Novak noted that the events in down the drainpipe with astonishing Moscow "without being shot.' here," said Mrs. Zaslavskaya, offer- making it better," said a man from speed," " he said. "There's very little He cautioned against declaring appearance of gloating on the part of democracy the champion this early, ing an opinion that seemed widely the Ukrainian city of Zaporozhye, we can do to affect it. The future will who was visiting relatives in the capi- America will tip the precarious bal- be determined largely by internal, do- arguing that "it's perfectly possible held by the people of this city. "This country has always been ruled by a tal. "And as long as the economy ance in the Soviet Union away from "The whole Soviet mestic considerations. and within the capability of the Sovi- Mr. Gorbachev. dictator of some sort, and now the stays the way it is, or God help us, "It's mind boggling." ets militarily and morally to stop all gets worse, people here are going to The political experts in Washington dictator is telling us there will be had felt it was inevitable that the world is going In political circles, where strate- this." democracy. Maybe there will be, but care very little who's pulling the gists are accustomed to promoting President Bush took the low-key levers.' power of the Soviet Communist Party if people believed it would be soon, would diminish ever since the Soviets down the the notion of good versus evil, the approach today. Originally, his advis- they would be here right now. And Overhearing the Ukrainian man's news was discombobulating. The ers were going to insert a reaction to did not roll into Eastern Europe with comments in a bakery on the city's drainpipe with Soviets, the terrifying presence in all the Kremlin events in one of his Cali- you don't see anybody, do you?' tanks to stop the rush of democracy On Sunday, nearly 100,000 people hectic Kalinin Prospekt, Pavel Litvo- those James Bond films and Ronald fornia speeches promoting the "Star this fall and winter. They were just edee skv interrupted, and through the Reagan speeches, seemed to be Wars" missile defense system and a watching to see. as the Democratic astonishing speed.' trying to kick the traces of their Evil strong defense. But that idea was can- when the President decided he a use "ying presence in an the events *** ure 01 and can you uun see anybody, uu your tanks to stop the rush of democracy hectic Kalinin Prospekt, Pavel Litvo- drainpipe with those James Bond films and Ronald fornia speeches promoting the "Star On Sunday, nearly 100,000 people this fall and winter. They were just Reagan speeches, seemed to be Wars" missile defense system and a marched through Moscow to the edge sky interrupted, and through the watching to see, as the Democratic analyst Robert G. Beckel put it, "if astonishing speed.' , trying to kick the traces of their Evil strong defense. But that idea was can- of the Kremlin, giving unexpected graying hairs of his sweeping mous- Empire image. celed when the President decided he voice to a variety of fears, concerns tache argued that the economy would Gorbachev could pull off a six-cush- "It's disorientating," Ms. Noonan did not want to look like he was gloat- and demands, including a call for the improve only through free competi- ion pool shot and survive." said, "because it's hard to know who ing. In a question and answer session Communist Party to relinquish its tion. So today the reaction was mostly the Soviet Union come "at a critically to assign the evil role to." after his speech at the Common- hold on life here. That rally was spon- "And the only path to economic muted wonder at the events in Mos- dull time in Washington. In Washington, where everything is wealth Club in San Francisco, Mr competition," he said, "is political "There's a great feeling of pas- cast in terms of winning and losing, Bush said he could best help the be- sored by an array of organizations, cow, while everyone still kept watch- with goals as diverse as monarchism competition." ing to see what the Sovlet leader's sivity associated with this President the debate was raging today over leaguered Soviet leader by avoiding "We do not have a political culture next shot would be. and the last year," he marveled. which party could get bragging rights "doing dumb things - and that's my and anarchism, united only, it seemed, by the desire to change the in this country," Mr. Litovsky said, "I've been in Washington 33 years Yes, there are intellectuals who are Just a Bystander to the end of the cold war. cautious approach." and I've never seen a time where all status quo. "We can't revel in the glory of The President reiterated his sup- But today, the only people walking well read and understand competi- "We may have exhausted our ca- the fascination was focused on some- what's going on," said John Buckley, port for perestroika and praised Mr. in Red Square were tourists who had tive politics and who have theories pacity for surprise and delight when thing 8,000 miles away.' a Republican consultant, "because Gorbachev for his 'restraint and fi- to come to ogle the gay domes of St. and ideas. But it takes a long time for we watched children in Tiananmen Perhaps It's Salutory' we're too busy trying to claim nesse," adding that "he's a man who Basil's Cathedral and'to watch the those thoughts to be understood by or- Square quoting Jefferson and chil- Noonan suggested that this credit." you can talk to." stiff soldiers guarding Lenin's tomb, dinary people like me." dren in East Germany taking pick- A Soviet Union Without a Communist Monopoly: The Academics' View my. And finally my impression is, from what party democracies take a generation, if not ent of an actual popular mandate. In Lenin's spective breakup of the existing Great Rus- Richard Pipes point of view, a majority vote was not enough sian empire. Gorbachev said, that he plans to shift the more. to have the right to rule. What really mat- The recent developments are the conse- Baird Professor of History at Harvard base of his power from the party to the state tered was to be right, and one was right by quence of the progressive polarization of the and, I believe, to run for President. A model knowing what was good for the worker and situation in the Soviet Union. Gorbachev has University: for this could be the recent events in Hungary and Poland, which I think he orchestrated. Ellen Mickiewicz what was good for the peasant without get- come to realize that zigzagging increasingly ting their formal approval through competi- meant a stalemate, and he thus had a choice I believe this is a Then the question remains whether he would revolutionary decision Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political tive elections. So the real, momentous signifi- of either moving dramatically towards really win office in a democratic election, be- cance of the declaration that the party re- democracy or towards repression. He chose which completely re- cause he is not popular in the country and he Science at Emory University: quires the people's approval through elec- the former, because he knew that repression verses Lenin's policy gains support from the street primarily when adopted in October The Party Congress tions in order to remain in power is that it is a would mean political violence and social he is assailing the entrenched Communists. repudiation of Leninism. It means that the stagnation. But the depth of the existing eco- 1917, calling for the Whether he would obtain the same kind of this spring will ratify "dictatorship of the the decision of the Cen- party does not have a right to rule automati- nomic crisis in the Soviet Union and the in- support to carry out a broader program on cally, as the party. Such a declaration, com- tensity of rising national apirations is such proletariat,' Lenin un- his own, I am not certain, because there are tral Committee ing from Moscow, is comprable in its impor- that the plunge towards democracy is likely derstood this to be a people who are more popular than he, in plenum introducing a complete monopoly by whom the citizenry has greater confidence. multiparty system. It tance for the Communists to a declaration, to produce not an operating democracy, but a has no choice; a num- coming from the Pope in Rome, that there is prolonged internal crisis, marked by turbu- his party, not only of So, to conclude, this is a historic event, but all political processes, ber of parties have al- no God. From now on, Soviet politics will in- lence, some chaos and fragmentation. Gorba- given the country's lack of experience with creasingly become an ethnic politics, and chev nonetheless should be admired for his but of all organized life in the country, the democracy, and the existing internal ten- ready come into exist- economy included. All other parties were to sions, the future is murky and unpredictable. ence. Besides, the people like Gorbachev and others will in- historical boldness. be barred from this process on the alleged Communist Party is creasingly present themselves as Russian grounds that they were either counterrevolu- facing rising defec- leaders. tionary or did not express the true interests tions in its ranks: large numbers of Commu- Adam Ulam of the working class. Gorbachev seems to nists, young and old, exturning in their Gurney Professor of History and Politi- call for an abandonment of this policy. He is Stephen F. Cohen party cards. Exposés of malfeasance, cor- essentially jettisoning the Communist Party ruption, and incompetence) are leading to cal Science at Harvard University: Copy as the ruling organ in the country, casting it Professor of politics and director of Rus- ousters of party chieftains, as in Volgograd, Zbigniew Brzezinski I think that the adrift and asking it to draw its strength from sian studies at Princeton University: where the main square was filled with people arguing, "Down with everybody and every- Former national security adviser, under present change in a popular support, such as it can obtain. It is to The abolition of Arti- thing." President Carter: sense is more symboli- compete with other parties for a role in the cle 6 is a step forward, The Soviet party has to try to earn the lead- cal rather than realis- Soviet state. Khru- tic. We don't have cur- My impression is that the Communist but it's not a decisive ership it can no longer take for granted. Just as Preservation development. There isn't even'a single Communist Party shchev's secret speech rently parties in our Party would receive no more than 5 percent or 10 percent of the popular vote, which First, Article 6 only any more: the impetus or.drastic political before the 20th party sense of the word in appeared in the Con- change has been generated for the most part congress: in 1956 the Soviet Union, but would mean that it would become a relatively rtsmall minority party in the political spec- stitution in 1977, dec- by elements within the party itself. And the marked the beginning what we do have is 94rum. I believe that in free elections, if such ades after Communist parties of the republics will be increasingly of the end of Stalinism, that the Communist are to take place, the majority of the Russian Party dictatorship Gorbachev's reform Party itself is split into diverse. was well established Can the Communist Party retain its lead- at the just-concluded many factions, and in voters would cast ballots for one of three new The second reason is ership in a system with genuine competition? plenum marks the a sense that poses a greater danger to the parties. One of these I would tentatively call It has the edge in resources, media control, beginning of the for- survival of the Soviet system than the ap- a Social Democratic party, which might ab- that there has been de sorb a considerable portion of the present facto multiparty politics in the Soviet Union and organization, but that won't be enough, in mal break with Lenin-, pearance of other parties, I think. The threat Communist Party membership. This party for the last three years anyway - politics, my view. The move to a genuine parliamen- ism. Gorbachev in ef- of secession by various national republics fect is embracing the prescriptions of Lenin's from the Soviet Union is a much greater would combine appeals for democracy with a though not a multiparty system. tary system is under way. Third, even in a multiparty system the old ideological rival, Martov, and his Menshe- threat than the threat posed by the still theo- program of socialism, such as we know from England under Labor, or Sweden. The other Communist Party is going to retain enor- viks. It took years for the struggle against retical possibility of another party. It's much party would presumably be what I would mous advantages, much in the way for exam- Stalinism to be successfully concluded. It will smaller than the threat being actually posed ple that party machines dominated what take years to dismantle the remnants of by the threat of secession by the Baltic re- tentatively call Christian Democratic, which would probably combine democracy with ap- were in effect various one-party cities and Roman Szporluk Leninism, but the battle has now been joined. publics or other republics of the Soviet Union. peals to free enterprise and a strong pro- states in America for many years. However, it would be a mistake to see the Of course, on the face of it, it's a welcome Fourth, the focus of a Soviet multiparty Professor of history and director of the recent decisions as marking a breakthrough change, but it also opens the way, to be realis- Western platform. The third major party to democracy. Much more likely is a pro- tic about it, to the rise let's say of a right-wing would be a Russian nationalist party, which system would be the thousands of local sovi- Center for Russian and East European would stand on a platform of Russia for Rus- ets - or councils, or local assemblies all Studies at the University of Michigan: longed period of democratizing chaos. One party, let us say which could combine, say in- sians and assume a strong anti-Western across the country. Though Gorbachev has will see the rise in the Soviet Union of in- tense Russian naitonalism, with the stress on stance. This sort of party would probably de- promised to shift "all power to the soviets,". I believe that the renunciation of the par- creasingly irreconcilable conflicts between russian, with what might be called elements those soviets remain powerless, in the fullest ty's monopoly of power literally means the varying national political and social aspira- of neo-Stalinism. So, like in any political mand very powerful centralized authority of the state. And then in additon there would be sense of the word, without their own author- end of Communism as a distinct current on tions, all united by a shared hatred for the ex- situation, this kind of reform opens the door nationalist parties in most of the border ity and even revenue. the left. Lenin's most original contribution to isting Communist nomenklatura. One is also not only, from the democratic point of view, lands, which would either espouse separa- And fifth, more generally, dictatorships Marxism was his concept of the party. Lenin likely to see a flashback of a nationalist type to favorable but also to somewhat dangerous can be born in one night but durable multi- made the right of the party.to rule independ- among the Great Russians, fearful of the pro- developments. tism or demand extensive regional autono- A10 THE NEW YORK TIMES INTERNATIONAL THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 8, 1990 Upheaval in the East: Gorbachev's Moment Soviet Union Soviet Leadership Agrees to Surrender the Communist Party Monopoly on Power party's vast entrenched machir. Continued From Page Al might ever yield its control over coun less jobs across all major institution the critical party congress, to be held in all communities of the land a na Photo Copy Preservation this summer. tionwide patronage machine by dikta The meeting also appeared to hedge in effect, that is rooted seven decade on a crucial economic issue and reject deep in Soviet history. proposals from some of the more radi- No Effect From Allies, He Says cal delegates for a clear repeal of the In accounting for the party's chang party's standing opposition to private of heart toward its power monopoly property. Mr. Yakovlev tried to contend that th With Mr. Gorbachev once again dis- turmoil that gripped the Soviet alliesis playing whiphand success in having his East Europe was not a major factor, way with the badly demoralized and in- "It cannot be based on those event. creasingly unpopular party, the meet- taking place in the countries of Eastern ing ended today with no purge of Mr. Europe," he said, adding that in ac Gorbachev's remaining critics from counting for democratization, "any process should ripen in each and every the hierarchy. individual country. Amid the party's general anxiety, Even as Mr. Gorbachev was, at. these hard-liners were warning that tempting fresh emergency domestic there was no guarantee of success in repairs through the party meeting, an these latest proposals in Mr. Gorba- announcement was being made that chev's rapid-fire attempts to ignite na- Chancellor Helmut Kohl of West Ger- tional renewal. But Mr. Yakovlev por- many would arrive Saturday for a syd- trayed the Central Committee's solid den Kremlin visit to deal with an inter- center majority as being firmly with national issue of rapidly growing con- Mr. Gorbachev, for all the anger and cern here, the possible reunification of the two Germanys. contention at the meeting. The issue was the subject of some Some of the speakers warned that sharply worded cautions at the Central chaos and anarchy awaited the nation Committee meeting not to forget the should the party fight the peoples' wish millions who died in the war against for pluralism. "Either we prove able to Nazi Germany. lead a rapid but controlled process of transformation or it will become an un- "A European Germany' controlled deluge," Vadim A. Medve- Mr. Yakovlev said the Gorbachev dev, the party's ideology chief, told the Government understood modern Ger- Reuters meeting. mans' hopes for unity, but he added, As he left the Central Committee meeting, Algirzas Brazauskas, Lithuanian party leader, gestured to reporters outside the Kremlin. "We are in favor of a European Ger- "It was not just a series of friendly many, not a German Europe." embraces,' Mr. Yakovlev said of the meeting that marked the party lead- up his timetable, succeeded in moving President, although technically he is competitive elections last March. In its "If we have 20 parties, it will be Left unsettled thus far in the early ers' concession that they had best re- to late June or early July, several Chairman of the Supreme Soviet and two ensuing sessions, a minority of okay," said Svyatoslav N. Fyodorov, summary of the meeting's activities is treat from their guaranteed power mo- months sooner than originally sched- roughly comparable to a parliamen- members have displayed a willingness Moscow's garrulous celebrity eye sur- how the 5,000 delegates to the party nopoly, seized by the Bolsheviks seven uled. tary prime minister. to criticize and dissent, but here, too, geon and man about the party, stepping congress will be selected. Mr. Yakov- decades ago and first encoded in the The party congress, whose members In No Hurry for New Parties Mmr. Gorbachev has thus far shown up to the microphone. lev said the plenum proposed a "large- Constitution of 1936. scale election campaign from top to seem likely to be selected by way of his ability to command the agenda and "It would be very strange if after 70 additional innovations expected from Party leaders who hailed the meet- "We all agreed the country needs a basically get what he wants approved. bottom," but he did not say whether the Gorbachev leadership, would pro- ing's change of position on power mo- president who will be able to solve delegates would be elected in competi- years of silence all of us would begin vide the ultimate party view of the nopoly were in no obvious rush to pre- Even before the meeting's formal en- problems quickly,' he said, only guess- tive secret-ballot elections. by party talking in a single voice," he said of the dict how soon or in what form true'op- dorsement of Mr. Gorbachev's wishes ing at what might be the enlarged role members, as younger, more libetal- impassioned session. changes by its 19 million members. position parties; might ever emerge, of such a post. "His functions will be to was announced, the mood surounding minded Communists want. While the meeting was a dramatic Even so, the national Parliament, the again Insisting that this, too, should be handle such cases as earthquakes, the Kremlin session was rich with sig- measure of the party hierarchy's Congress of People's Deputies, pres- up the Parliament to decide. armed clashes, matters of war and Of the Lithuanian breakaway party, nals. Delegates, who in previous re- search for a way to avoid the sort of ently would have the final governmen- peace. There should be a man who will Vice President Anatoly I. Lukyanov "The party should not be organizing gimes were absolutely secretive about tal say over the proposal to end the committee meetings, this time were keep his finger on the button." said it had "yet another chance" to re- public confrontation and rout that pre- an opposition for Itself," Mr. Yakovlev turn to the fold, an unlikely event even cipitated the fall of East European Constitution's guarantee of supreme willing to discuss each day's doings. While delegates at the meeting were Communism, its recommendation said, smiling. "This should be a natural with the step announced today of a cut- powers to the party, enshrined in Arti- carried no immediate guarantee of course." They even began adapting to the clutch hailing the proposals as dramatic off of central party financing The local cle 6, as well as to create a new presi- of news reporters and camera crews cures for some of the nation's ills, the Communist insurgents have begun enactment. dential system. But he indicated that the party was that began staking out the Kremlin's dissident voices who have been fighting raising funds independent of Moscow. Party Congress Moved Up Of the latter, Mr. Yakovlev was already expecting a more competitive Spassky Gate, precisely as they do the for the right to opposition politics The proposals, including the still vague on details, talking of such a re- outlook, stressing, "We will struggle to West Wing driveway of the White stressed that enormous struggles "We do not think any single party vaguely explained endorsement of a vised presidency's being approved "by remain the governing party, but by House. Here, too, certain delegates would probably remain even should should pretend to have a monopoly, new presidential system, will next go to the people," but not directly suggesting political means." could not resist this odd oasis of lime- pluralistic changes be adopted in Par- Mr. Yakovlev said of the meeting's Parliament underwent its own quali- light gleaming through the wintry dull- liament. willingness to retreat. "This party. is the 5,000-member national party con- direct competitive elections. Mr. Gor- gress that Mr. Gorbachev, in stepping bachev is commonly referred to as the fied democratization through partial ness in Red Square. A crucial question is how easily the ready to share its prerogatives.' The Party Is Not Over The Party Is Not Over For Soviet Communism Continued From Page Al rent economic arrangements change. "We are children, because the Rus- sian people have never had any prop- runs deep, there is no sense of soli- erty, he said. darity among the opposition. 'Parties will be revived in parallel The Soviet Union is an assembly of with people acquiring new forms of self-absorbed factions, each with its property," he said. "Peasants will-get own grievances - ethnic, economic, land as their own, and establish their ideological. There is no unifying force own party." comparable to the nationalism of Ger- Don't Underestimate Gorbachev mans or the Catholic Church in Poland, no cohesive umbrella group compara- Another reason not to write off the ble to the Civic Forum in Czechoslova- party yet is its leader, Mr. Gorbachev, kia. who may yet succeed in making Com- When 100,000 people massed in the munism a capable competitor in a mul- center of Moscow on Sunday to press tiparty world. the Communist leadership for change, Today, Mr. Gorbachev's first pri- the show of common purpose seemed ority is to create stable government-in- reminiscent of scenes in Prague or stitutions - the Parliament, a more Photo Copy Preservation Leipzig. But in the ranks, the crowd powerful presidency, soon-to-be- lacked any unifying passion or sense of its own power. It was one-day alliance of convenience, the blue and yellow flag of Ukrainian nationalists flying along- The Communists side the black flag of the anarchists, Jews fearful of mounting anti-Semi- have big tism marching with young Commu- nists demanding intra-party democra- advantages; not cy. The Baltic republics, waging an aloof so their rivals. campaign for liberty, find little com- mon purpose with the Armenians and Azerbaijanis, living in their own world of murderous recriminations. And elected local governments that have Reuters none of those places wants to tie its fate enough public credibility to stand on Muscovites gathered around a display outside a newspaper office to read accounts of the meeting of the Soviet Communist Party leadership. to Russia, the largest republic, which is their own and govern. itself split into regions as disparate as Gradually, Mr. Gorbachev and his separate countries. party have accepted that the price-of Mr. Gorbachev's main enemy is not credible democracy is forcing the any political rival inside the party or Communists to stand the test of compe- Excerpts From Remarks by Soviet Ambassador outside it. It is chaos, disintegration. tition. "We depend on Gorbachev because The early experience of the Baltic re- this country cannot be Czechoslova- publics, where the Communists have In recent times we have somehow Special to The New York Times Was it not a mistake to proclaim with the anti-alcohol legislation. At kia," said one marcher in the parade already begun to face competition, sug- begun to value not our own assess- MOSCOW, Feb. 7 - Following are: the total democratization of society the time we said that it would be once Sunday, alluding wistfully to the or- gests that even if the party remakes it- ments of our work but those of gentle- and forget about the other side of the and for all, and now our foreign-trade derly change of power in Prague. "The self almost beyond recognition it will excerpts from remarks by Vladimir men in the West. coin the establishment of order and officials are scouring the entire world most we can hope for is to be Romania, have trouble holding its own. I. Brovikov, Soviet Ambassador to discipline in the country? to buy hundreds of thousands of deca- and there has already been enough But Mr. Gorbachev insists the party Poland, at the meeting of the Soviet liters of vodka for the overly sober blood." can be taught the new tricks of democ- The heck with them. Bush is Bush. Communist Party Central Commit Anyone who Is in the least bit famil- and the people are the people. We Soviet consumer. A Nation Sick of Parties racy. far with theory and politics knows think that we can," said Gennadi I. tee Tuesday, as distributed by Tass, somehow are trying to prove that the that discipline without democracy Another reason the party can expect Gerasimov, the main Soviet spokes- the official Soviet press agency, and people are for perestroika, but permit will survive, but democracy without We are still running around looking to be around awhile is the lack of a man. "Gorbachev certainly believes translated by The New Times: me to ask, for what kind? Not for the discipline is inconceivable, for it for panaceas for all evils and hoping political culture here. that we can. But we must move with kind which in almost five years has inevitably grows into sociopolitical that democracy, which we have Even in the Baltics, the most Euro- the tide, must move with the people, I share the opinion of those who thrown the country,into the vortex of chaos. turned into an absolute, will put pean of the Soviet republics, organizers and not be left behind by events." CE spoke before me who said that the crisis and led it to the line where we everything in its place in the political of newly legalized parties like the So- "There are countries where. one have come face to face with an orgy This point is well understood by the document being discussed by. us is sphere and the market will set things cial Democrats and Christian Demo- of anarchy and the breakdown of the Western leaders who so fervently party may stay in power for years, he hardly acceptable in the form pre- straight in the economic sphere. But crats say many people are reluctant to added. "In Sweden, Social Democrats sented to us and needs to be seriously economy, with the grimace of all-out praise us. At home they act brutally and decisively when even the slight- since everything has turned out just join any party, because they are alien- were for how many - 20? 25? Why? revised. Its excessive slogan monger- collapse and the decline of morals. To the opposite, it is not the leaders in ated by the concept of organized poli- assert in this situation that the people est threat emerges to their state or Because they were good enough to keep the center who are to blame, you see, tics. ing and even somewhat shrill tone, are for, that everything pleases them; class interests. And in doing so, Bush the power. So his hope is that his party the inaccuracy of the assessments of but local officials. Or the excuse is "The habit of democracy has been is at a minimum politically dishonest. and Thatcher don't pay attention to will be in power for 20 or 30 more the past and especially of the present made that they didn't think it would bred out of us," said a leader of the new what others think of them. Panama, years." contained in it, ideological eclecti- the suppression of the strike move- turn out like this. Putting it frankly, Social Democratic Party in Lithuania. cism and lack of theoretical clarity do Discipline and Democracy ment in England and much, much this is a strange position for such In Russia and Central Asia, even not as yet allow it to claim the role of The people are against and are high-ranking officials. more remote from the law-based New Chief for the Navy more provide illustration of this. the program document of our party. speaking out about this increasingly But more than anything else, it has democratic traditions of Europe, politi- SAN FRANCISCO, Feb. 7 (AP) The impression is created that the vocally. Comrades, you know this become fashionable to blame all our cal groups splinter as soon as they are President Bush will nominate Adm. disasters on the "accursed past." formed. document has a utilitarian function very well, there's no need for me to Frank B. Kelso 2d to be the new Chief and is intended to satisfy the immedi- tell you. Laws and Mistakes Svyatoslav Fyodorov, a Moscow eye of Naval Operations, the White House ate requirements of our policy. It is for this reason, apparently, surgeon and champion of free enter- announced today in San Francisco, that for our leadership it is more Comrades, was not the enactment I believe that all our tragedy today prise who attended the party meeting, where the President was traveling. Ad- In the platform there is much extol- ling of perestroika and criticism of pleasant to meet with smiling crowds of hasty, inadequately considered stems from our not being able as be- said another major obstacle is that miral Kelso, now commander in chief on the streets of Western capitals laws a mistake? To some people it fore to move away from one-man rule politics must be based on economic in- of the Navy's Atlantic Command and the distant past and plenty of gener- than with our own despondent coun- seemed that everything was all right, in the Government and the party. We terests, but SO far the economy is a supreme Allied commander for the At- ous promises about the future, but trymen who might, in keeping with and they immediately praised the often conduct matters instinctively, state monopoly. lantic, would succeed Adm. Carlisle there is barely any assessment of the the laws of glasnost, say something new drafts. But then it turned out that incompetently and without looking He predicted that innumerable small A. H. Trost, whose term expires June present and of the mistakes commit- unpleasant. they were not all right, and, as a mat- into the future, worrying less about and ineffectual parties would spring up 30. Admiral Kelso is 56 years old, a na- ted not at some time in the past but ter of fact, quite the opposite. the welfare of the country than about quickly, but that serious contenders for tive of Fayetteville, Tenn., and a 1956 during the period of perestroika. That's the way it was, for instance personal ambitions. power would come only when the cur- graduate of the Naval Academy. The New York Times New York: Today, mostly sunny, "All the News breezy. High near 60. Tonight, clear, windy, mild. Low near 50. Tomorrow, That's Fit to Print" sun then clouds. High near 60. Yester- day: High 53, low 41. Details, page B12. VOL. CXXXIX No. 48,140 Copyright © 1990 The New York Times NEW YORK, THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 8, 1990 50 cents beyond 75 miles from New York City, except on Long Island. 40 CENTS SOVIET LEADERS AGREE TO SURRENDER COMMUNIST PARTY MONOPOLY ON POWER Drug for Babies' Seizures Is Found Communlsm by Decree or DV Choice GORBACHEV BACKED 030468 Ineffective and Perhaps Harmful THE LEADING AND GUIDING FORCE OF Copy Soviet society and the nucleus of its A Western-Style System By GINA KOLATA political system, of all state organiza A drug that is being taken for long children end up taking phenobarbital for the seizures, he estimated. The chil- tions and organizations, is the Communist of Government Urged periods by tens of thousands of infants and young children to prevent convul- dren usually take the drug, an anticon- Party of the Soviet Union, The exists sions is ineffective and inhibits intellec- vulsant that has been used for decades as Meeting Ends tual performance, at least temporarily, to treat epilepsy, every day for two for the and serves the people. researchers have found. years. The drug, phenobarbital, has been a The Epilepsy Foundation of America The Communist Party,armed with Marxism By FRANCIS X. CLINES mainstay of pediatricians and pediat- urged parents not to react to the study Leninism: determines the general perspectives of Special to The New York Times ric neurologists, who have used it for by suddenly discontinuing their chil- MOSCOW, Feb. 7 The Communist decades to try to suppress seizures that dren's use of the drug. "Sudden with- the develop nent of society and the course of the Party leadership agreed today to sur- can occur when a baby or child has a drawal of anticonvulsant drugs such as domestic foreign policy of the U.S.S.R., render its historic monopoly of power fever. phenobarbital can trigger seizures, in- in the Soviet Union and accept a pro- An estimated 130,000 of the four mil- cluding seizures that are harder than directs the treat constructive work of the Sovie gram that recommends the creation of lion children born each year in the usual to control, or which occur in people, andimparts a planned, systematic and a Western-style presidency and cabinet United States will have at least one series," said Dr. W. Edwin Dodson, a system of government, such febrile seizure, said Dr. Jonas H. member of the foundation's board who theoretical substantiated character to their Society itself will decide The Soviet party's governing Central Ellenberg, a statistician at the Na- is professor of pediatrics and neu- Committee ended a contentious three- tional Institute of Neurological Disor- rology at St. Louis Children's Hospital struggle for hevictory of Communism whether it wishes to adopt day meeting with a strong endorse- ders and Stroke who is an author of the and Washington University. ment of President Mikhail S. Gorba- All party or anizations shall the our politics new study. As many as 40,000 of the Edward West, a spokesman for Eli chev's latest prescription for dealing Lilly & Company, a maker of phenobar- framework Constitution of the USSR ALEKSANDR N. YAKOVLE with the badly alling party and nation, bital, said company officials had not including unspecified additional execu- Member of the Politburo Judge Nullifies seen the article. Efforts to reach offi- ARTICLE OF THE SOVIET CONSTITUTION tive powers for the President. cials of other companies that make the chief architect of Gorbachev Repudiated by the Communist Party leadership Central Committee leaders, summa- drug were unavailing. proposals for a new Government rizing what they conceded was a storm Law Mandating A Sort of Electrical Storm of questions, doubts and complaints, said the hierarchy had finally agreed to Doubts have been raised in the last end more than seven decades of party Use of English decade about whether it is useful to treat such a seizure, a sort of electrical storm in the brain that seems to be set Caution: The Soviet Party Is Not Over dictatorship by accepting the possibil- ity of political pluralism and by mak- ing "no claim for any particular role to off in some children when their tem- be encoded in the Constitution" for the By FELICITY BARRINGER peratures rise in an illness. But many doctors prescribed phenobarbital be- By BILL KELLER and beset by a public disenchanted not methodical extermination of dissent. In Communists Special to The New York Times WASHINGTON, Feb. 7 - A Federal cause they wanted to reassure parents Specialto Times just by 70 years of admitted misrule, the older generation, Communism is in- tertwined with the patriotic emotions "Soclety Will Decide' district judge in Phoenix has declared anxious about preventing another sel- MOSCOW, Feb. 7 East Germany, but also by five years of unfulfilled that the state's constitutional amend- zure and because of concerns that the Czechoslovakia, Romania and now promises. of World War II and the building of an "Soclety itself will decide whether it ment making English the language "of seizures could be dangerous. Such con- the Soviet Union? But for several reasons, the party industrial state. wishes to adopt our politics," said Alek- cerns were raised by anecdotal ac- As the Communist Party's leader- here seems likely to prove more tena- Moreover, every factory boss, collec- sandr N. Yakovlev, the Politburo mem- all government functions and actions" ship grudgingly accepted the prospect cious than its offspring in Eastern Eu- tive farm director, newspaper editor, ber and Gorbachev confidant who is in Arizona is a violation of federally counts that the seizures could lead to one of the main architects of the latest of political competition to- rope. high school principal, K.G.B. colonel protected free speech rights. neurological problems. The decision on Tuesday was the News day, it was tempting to In contrast to the overnight democ- and army officer owes his place in Kremlin proposals to deal with the In the new study, being published to: think that another Com- racies of Eastern Europe is the Soviet large part to the party's pervasive pa- wave of unrest that has pushed world first legal setback for the official-Eng- day in The New England Journal of Analysis Medicine, researchers report that chil- munist sand castle was Union, in which the Communist Party tronage machine. Communism into retreat and reform. lish movement, which gathered about to disappear in a has deeper roots, a fractured opposi- Mr. Gorbachev has tried for two Central Committee members repeat momentum in the latter part of the dren who took the drug for as long as flash flood of democracy. tion and the strategic prowess of Presi- years to wean factories and farms edly stressed that they were only 1980's, particularly in the South and two years had just as many febrile sel- Southwest as those areas experienced zures as those who did not take it and But it is hard to find anyone here, dent Mikhail S. Gorbachev. from directives of local party bosses. recommending, not dictating, changes a large influx of Asian and Hispanic Communist or anti-Communist, who The roots of Communism run into the He has discovered that many of them for possible enactment by the national that the children who took it had signif- than the really believes the party is over. national psychology and the system of lost the habit of deciding things for Parliament, thereby underlining their own shrinking role in the state's execu- Soviet society and the nucleus of its By GINA KOLATA A Western-Style System political system, of all state organiza A drug that is being taken for long children end up taking phenobarbital periods by tens of thousands of infants for the seizures, he estimated. The chil- tions and public organizations, is the Communist of Government Urged and young children to prevent convul- dren usually take the drug, an anticon- sions is ineffective and inhibits intellec- vulsant that has been used for decades Party of the Soviet Union The C.P.S. U. exists tual performance, at least temporarily, to treat epilepsy, every day for two for the people and serves the people. as Meeting Ends researchers have found. years. The drug, phenobarbital, has been a The Epilepsy Foundation of America The Communist Party, armed with Marxism mainstay of pediatricians and pediat- urged parents not to react to the study By FRANCIS X. CLINES ric neurologists, who have used it for by suddenly discontinuing their chil- Leninism, determines the general perspectives of Specialto to The New York Times decades to try to suppress seizures that dren's use of the drug. "Sudden with- velopment of society and the course of the MOSCOW, Feb. 7 - The Communist can occur when a baby or child has a drawal of anticonvulsant drugs such as Party leadership agreed today to sur- fever. phenobarbital can trigger seizures, in- domestic and foreign policy the U.S.S.R., render its historic monopoly of power An estimated 130,000 of the four mil- cluding seizures that are harder than directs the treat constructive work of the Soviet in the Soviet Union and accept a pro- lion children born each year in the usual to control, or which occur in gram that recommends the creation of United States will have at least one series," said Dr. W. Edwin Dodson, a people, andimparts a planned, systematic and a Western-style presidency and cabinet such febrile seizure, said Dr. Jonas H. member of the foundation's board who theoretically substantiated character to their system of government. Ellenberg, a statistician at the Na- is professor of pediatrics and neu- Society itself will decide The Soviet party's governing Central tional Institute of Neurological Disor- rology at St. Louis Children's Hospital struggle for the victory of Communism: Committee ended a contentious three- ders and Stroke who is an author of the and Washington University. whether it wishes to adopt day meeting with a strong endorse- new study. As many as 40,000 of the Edward West, a spokesman for Eli All party ore anizations shall function within the our politics. ment of President Mikhail S. Gorba- Lilly & Company, a maker of phenobar- framework of the Constitution of the USSR chev's latest prescription for dealing bital, said company officials had not ALEKSANDR N. YAKOVLEV with the badly ailing party and nation, Judge Nullifies seen the article. Efforts to reach offi- ARTICLE OF THE SOVIET CONSTITUTION Member of the Politbura including unspecified additional execu- cials of other companies that make the anda chief architect of Gorbachev tive powers for the President. drug were unavailing. Repudiated by the Communist Party leadership proposals for new Government Central Committee leaders, summa- Law Mandating A Sort of Electrical Storm rizing what they conceded was a storm of questions, doubts and complaints, Doubts have been raised in the last Use of English said the hierarchy had finally agreed to decade about whether it is useful to end more than seven decades of party treat such a seizure, a sort of electrical Caution: The Soviet Party Is Not Over dictatorship by accepting the possibil- storm in the brain that seems to be set ity of political pluralism and by mak- By FELICITY BARRINGER off in some children when their tem- ing "no claim for any particular role to Specialto The New York Times peratures rise in an illness. But many be encoded in the Constitution" for the doctors prescribed phenobarbital be- By BILL KELLER and beset by a public disenchanted not methodical extermination of dissent. In Communists. WASHINGTON, Feb. 7 A Federal cause they wanted to reassure parents Special to The New York Times just by 70 years of admitted misrule, the older generation, Communism is in- district judge in Phoenix has declared anxious about preventing another sei- MOSCOW, Feb. 7 - East Germany, but also by five years of unfulfilled tertwined with the patriotic emotions "Soclety WIII Decide' that the state's constitutional amend- zure and because of concerns that the Czechoslovakia, Romania - and now promises. of World War II and the building of an "Society itself will decide whether it ment making English the language "of seizures could be dangerous. Such con- the Soviet Union? But for several reasons, the party industrial state. wishes to adopt our politics," said Alek- all government functions and actions" cerns were raised by anecdotal ac- As the Communist Party's leader- here seems likely to prove more tena- Moreover, every factory boss, collec- sandr N. Yakovlev, the Politburo mem- in Arizona is a violation of federally counts that the seizures could lead to ship grudgingly accepted the prospect cious than its offspring in Eastern Eu- tive farm director, newspaper editor, ber and Gorbachev confidant who is protected free speech rights. neurological problems. of political competition to- rope. high school principal, K.G.B. colonel one of the main architects of the latest The decision on Tuesday was the In the new study, being published to: News day, it was tempting to In contrast to the overnight democ- and army officer owes his place in Kremlin proposals to deal with the first legal setback for the official-Eng- day in The New England Journal of think that fanother Com- Analysis racies of Eastern Europe is the Soviet large part to the party's pervasive pa- wave of unrest that has pushed world lish movement, which gathered Medicine, researchers report that chil- munist sand castle was Union, in which the Communist Party tronage machine. Communism into retreat and reform. Photo momentum in the latter part of the dren who took the drug for as long as about to disappear 'in a has deeper roots, a fractured opposi- 1980's, particularly in the South and Mr. Gorbachev has tried for two Central Committee members repeat- two years had just as many febrile sei- flash flood of democracy. tion and the strategic prowess of Presi- years to wean factories and farms edly stressed that they were only Southwest as those areas experienced zures as those who did not take it and But it is hard to find anyone here, dent Mikhail S. Gorbachev. a large influx of Asian and Hispanic from directives of local party bosses. recommending, not dictating, changes that the children who took it had signif- Communist or, anti Communist, who The roots of Communism run into the Copy immigrants. He has discovered that many of them for possible enactment by the national icantly lower I.Q. scores than the really believes the party is over. national psychology and the system of The judge, Paul G. Rosenblatt, ruled lost the habit of deciding things, for Parliament, thereby underlining their others several months after the medi- True, the Soviet Communist Party is power. themselves. own shrinking role in the'state's execu- that the Arizona amendment "is a pro- cation was discontinued rapidly polarizing into the camps of Bolshevism was indigenous rather hibition on the use of any language The researchers, at the National In- revision: and resistance. More and than imposed by an imperious neigh- the time does come to compete, the tive affairs. These proposals would thus continue other than English by all officers and more, it is torn by ethnic divisions, bor, and it has been reinforced by party:starts with the advantages of a seven decades of indoctrination "and rich political infrastructure, from bank Mr. Gorbachev's attempt. to: channel employees of all political subdivisions Continued on Page B13, Column I paralyzed by its dimmishing authority accounts and printing presses to tacti- power from the party to the Govern- in Arizona while performing their offi- cial duties." As such, Judge Rosenblatt cal experience and personnel files. ment. They would, if enacted, enhance said, it could inhibit legislators from When a group of Communist insur- his role as President, but how fully talking to their constituents or judges gents met recently in Moscow to con- competitive party or -presidential ider-organizing their own party, one rivals might arise, if ever, was in no from performing marriages in a lan- leader, Sergel B. Stankevich, said it way clear from. the early proposal guage other than English would be better to work from within. sketched after the meeting. Mofford Approves of Ruling } "We are not going to walk away from No Action Against Lithuania Gov. Rose Mofford, a Democrat who the party with empty hands and bare The 250-member committee also ac- strongly opposed the 1988 campaign to bottoms,' he said. ceded to the view of the Gorbachev amend the state constitution with the Although discontent with the party leadership that no immediate sanc- language provision, said she would not tions be attempted against the Lithua- appeal the judge's ruling. "I am happy Continued on Page A10, Column 5 nian Communist Party, which has de- the courts ruled it unconstitutional, clared independence from the Soviet she said, adding that the law was The View From the West party in a pioneer attempt to force "flawed from the beginning." political pluralism onto the land. In the absence of an appeal, Judge In Washington, there was muted Instead, the committee members Rosenblatt's ruling sets a legal princi- wonder at the Soviet Communist Par- opted for a conciliatory approach, urg- ple that is binding only in Arizona. ty's actions, and anticipation over ing the Lithuanian insurgents to recon- Other lawsuits dealing with the lan- President Mikhail S. Gorbachev's sider their action in the face of "top to guage issue around the country either next move, while academic experts bottom" changes that are promised for were divided on the significance of the events in Moscow. Page All. Continued on Page A10, Column I FRIDAY, JANUARY 12, 1990 A Single Bullet By MARK HELPRIN the West-"now that Soviet threat no many locked in de facto unification with Most leaders who decide upon war do so longer exists accepts Mr. Gorba- the Federal Republic, hell could break amid what they report to have been the in- chev's probity and permanence. American loose as the NATO Germans suddenly dis- eluctable compulsion of events with a life intelligence appears to believe that he has cover something for which they will lay' of their own. And when things get out of replaced hostile elements of the armed down their lives. hand, it is usually after a period of eupho- forces, but the word on the street in Mos- America faces these dangers with slo- ria has masked the small signals of danger COW is the opposite, and a noted Soviet par- gans. Though "the end of history" and that in later sobriety stand out with such liamentarian told this newspaper in Sep the peace dividend" make no more sense melancholy., force. tember that "all the officers who support than Stennis balls cause cancer" and "the The lamps of Europe are burning bril- perestroika have been discharged.' In this Arabian resuscitation," they are the intel- liantly but out of control. Far too much autumn of Eastern Europe, the Red Army lectual foundation for habitual capitula- rides upon Mikhail Gorbachev, for (real continued to speak its ancient language, tionists who resent having to receive con- power in the Soviet Bloc is still centralized detaining American military observers and cessions," because they; are happy only in him, and he alone holds back the per- bayoneting tires, as If to signal that it is when they are making them. fectly intact mechanisms of, repression. not to be dismissed as an independent ac- With no inkling of why Mr. Gorbachev The facts suggest a major Soviet revanche tor, and it is not. The KGB and the party, may fall, they refuse to look closely at his with unpredictable consequences in and bent out of shape by Mr. Gorbachev, can crumbling economy, affronted military, among the blocs. Not since Sarajevo or snap back. shghted party and disintegrating empire, Munich has SO grave a peril been SO unap- The Soviet president will not magically and seem to-believe that the U.S., pros- preciated by SO many. rid the military, the KGB and the party of trate. before the South Bronx, can pull Though the press, intelligence agencies institutional memory, because his infalli these chestnuts from the fire with some and shallow think tanks proffer triumpha- beltocentric puffery. Are these not the list analyses, this is only because institu- tional needs. take precedence over the The Stalinists whom same people who call the U.S. an impotent giant, who shrink at the thunder of Daniel blaze of individual genius and the simple Mr. Gorbachev has Ortega, and dare not set foot in Beirut? El light of the truth Institutional analysis Salvador is too big a bite and should be left tells us that the shah rules the Iran that stuffed into deep and un- to the locals, but the U.S.S.R. you do in the conquered the Iraq that invaded the Saudi Arabia that owns the America that, in the pleasant buckets may afternoon. Vision is the word used by those who do depression before the nuclear war, ran out of resources just as President Dukakis vis- burst from them as if shot not comprehend what it is they do not have to offer. Critics of President Bush's instinc- ited Argentina, victor of the Falklands. from a cannon. And it tells us that Europe is safe. tive caution, citing vision, have forced him Consider nonetheless a short list of fun- to compromise with negligence. One of the damentals: the dissolution of the Soviet bility is a wishful creation of the Western Wise Men validating with his resume Bloc, the centrifugality of the Soviet repub- press: Though Mr. Gorbachev originally America's insatiable desire to throw off its called for the dissolution of the blocs, he burdens is Robert McNamara, once a bur- lics, and the demise of the Soviet econ- reversed himself when he saw what he had den himself. Despite nearly undiminished omy. wrought. Still, he says with baseless assur- Soviet military capacity, he wants to cut A Red Line ance that "the 1990s promise to become the the U.S. defense budget in half. His reck- Vadim Medvedev, the Soviet Commu- most fruitful period in the history of civili- lessness is allowed the front page, as per- nist Party's chief of ideology, believes that zation," and I say that one must always haps it should be, for as one of the chief divisiveness in Soviet society and seces- question the probity and permanence of architects of both our gratuitous involve- sionist trends in the republics are enough anyone whose stability. depends upon in ment in and unnecessary defeat by Viet- in themselves to cause "the end of peres- creasing his velocity. nam, Mr McNamara should be closely troika" and "our new role in the Interna- The Stalinists whom Mr. Gorbachev has watched so that the public may safely seek tional community.' This is obviously a red stuffed into deep and unpleasant buckets the opposite of what he recommends. line, and yet the country continues to may burst from them as if shot from a Gradually and Steadily break apart not merely in protest of the cannon. The smallest part of recent events Reduction of forces should be conceived forced unity of natural differences but be- in East Europe would have been, a short cause opportunity generates its own mo- time ago, casus belli for the Soviet Union, to take some strain off the Soviet economy mentum. justifying a full-scale invasion. Moreover, while neither imperiling Western defense the Soviets do not and cannot view German (which a 50% cut obviously would) nor re- The Soviets are attempting to restruc ture a failed centralized economy by reunification with America careless indif quiring a change in the political structures means of a centralized design-a strategy ference. it serves. for the preservation of NATO is that needs no further comment-and they Though the Franco-Prussian War and essential-not SO much to meet contingen- have no room for mistakes, no political or two world wars were the result of heartfelt cies as to deter them. The dissolution of economic elasticity save their legendary German ideals, slipshod European states empire in the East, the e-integration of ability to suffer. If Western economies manship, and unintended consequences, Central with Western Europe; the diminu- stumble in the near future, the privations the Germans still believe that purity of in- tion of orders of battle, and the shifting of of economic transition in the East will be tention can remake the world. The concert alignments must occur gradually. and impossible to bear; in that the model for of Europe that they wish to inspire is not steadily if they are to last and not turn which the East has undertaken to suffer impossible, but it is improbable, and ef shockingly bitter. Photo Copy will appear, justifiably or not, to have been forts to achieve it more often than not put If perestroika succeeds too well, a clas- an illusion. Keep in mind that in the Soviet disruptive strain upon the international sic power rivalry will come into play, and economy full employment comes first, and system. This does not and will not matter if it fails, ideological confrontation will re- that the national unemployment rate is to them, for their ethos is not to under- turn What appears to some to be the con- (unofficially 17%. Mr. Gorbachev can stand that the perfect is the enemy of the cert of Europe is merely a moment of re- overcome all difficulties if he can deliver good, but, rather, to pursue an ideal SO lief within a moment of hesitation. Because the economy, but he cannot deliver the tensely that it shatters. half the continent is in thrall, the other half economy. They are at it again, having virtually should seek gravity, stability and continu- The dissolution of the Warsaw Pact is unified, as daily reportage attests. The ity This means, among other things, rejec- more acutely. damaging to Mr. Gorba- Schengen talks on European Community OF tion of the premise and spur driving Mik- chev's chances of survival than even the open borders serve to query Bonn about hall Gorbachev, who, to continue, must ac- worsening consumer Ice age over which he reunification; and in refusing to control the celerate. It means awakening to the falla- presides. He was not helped when West inter-German border, Bonn has stated its cies of hope. It means that the policy of German Chancellor Helmut Kohl, on a trip position unequivocally. If the counter revo great nations and the fate of the West must ostensibly to reassure the Poles, refused to lution fails in the Soviet Union, either from not be allowed to depend on the fortunes of accept the immutability of the Polish-Ger lack of boldness or too much of it, the one man alone, no matter how positive his man border: Fundamental Soviet interests counter-counter-revolutionaries may be ob- effect, for if the fate of the West rests upon guarantee that the rise of Germany will sessed with German ascendancy and take one man. It rests upon a single bullet. force a reassessment of the disintegration the plunge to reclaim strategic depth. The of the pact and the loss of buffer states, Brezhnev Doctrine did not die with Brezh- Mr. Helprin is a novelist and political and with reassessment may come a nev, just as it was not invented by him. commentator. This is the latest of four ar- change of personnel. Should a Soviet revanche include the re ticles that began in 1988 with "War in Eu- Nonetheless conventional wisdom in capture and repression of an East Ger rope Thinking the Unthinkable." SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 12, 1989 EDITORIALS/COLUMNISTS D1 The Washington Post OUTLOOK Commentary and Opinion Photo Copy Preservation WITHO 322 0 gain WA listed ento Human AIR PETER ALSBERG WASHINGTON POST If Gorbachev Keeps Moving, Europe is at stake-and with it the postwar divi- This Is No Time for Talk and it is of utmost importance for the solution of sion of Europe. The central issue is whether the both of them that they not be confused. America Should Help Out inevitable further changes will be peaceful or vit The first is the short-term problem: that of pre- olent. Of German Reunification serving sufficient stability throughout the Central The Soviets hope they can get the situation un- and Eastern European region over the coming der control eventually by opening the social safety weeks and months to give everyone time to ad- By Zbigniew Brzezinski valves. But I am not sure they understand the ex- By George F. Kennan dress themselves in a careful and orderly way to, tent to which East Germany is an artifical entity. the second and long-term problem, which will re- HE REUNIFICATION of Germany is HE CHANGES now sweeping over They do not seem to recognize that the liberaliza- quire much more time for its successful:treatment the obsessive topic of conversation in Central and Eastern Europe are mo- Moscow these davs-iust as it is in tion of the East German regime will, before long, and should not be approached in haste or under Vnt mentous, irreversible and truly ep- pressure PETER WASHINGTON POST If Gorbachev Keeps Moving, Europe is at stake-and with it the postwar divi- sion of Europe. The central issue is whether the This Is No Time for Talk and it is of utmost importance for the solution of both of them that they not be confused. inevitable further changes will be peaceful or vi- The first is the short-term problem: that of pre- America Should Help Out olent. Of German Reunification serving sufficient stability throughout the Central The Soviets hope they can get the situation un- and Eastern European region over the coming der control eventually by opening the social safety weeks and months to give everyone time to ad- By Zbigniew Brzezinski valves. But I am not sure they understand the ex- By George F. Kennan dress themselves in a careful and orderly way to, tent to which East Germany is an artifical entity. the second and long-term problem, which will re- HE REUNIFICATION of Germany is HE CHANGES now sweeping over They do not seem to recognize that the liberaliza- quire much more time for its successful/treatment the obsessive topic of conversation in Central and Eastern Europe are mo- tion of the East German regime will, before long, and should not be approached in haste or under Moscow these days-just as it is in mentoùs, irreversible and truly ep- undermine the existence of that regime. Yet they och-making. They mark the end of a pressure. Warsaw and Paris. When'I left Mos- had no response when the argument was made This second problem cannot be described in a cow 10 days ago, everyone was talk- status quo that has existed in most of that the termination of the division of Europe has single sentence; it is too vast and too many-sided. ing about the German problem, but this region for four decades, and in In essence, it involves not just the designing of a photo to be followed, even if not instantly accompanied, nobody-at least officially-seemed Russia for a full seven. Whatever else by the termination of the division of Germany. new status quo for the part of Europe mentioned to know what to do about it. may be said of them, it is safe to say What worries Moscow is how fluid the situation above but also the working out of a new political, The Soviets simply do not know that Europe will never again look as it is: First the East German demand was for travel; economic and security framework for much of the how to contain the situation in East has looked in all these years since the then it became freiheit-freedom The day after remainder of the European continent, to replace Copy Germany. They are giving ground to each new end of World War II. And how this future Europe tomorrow, it may be einheit-unity. While I was in the old one, so deeply impregnated with Cold War' development, including Thursday's announcement will look is going to depend upon the quality of Moscow, I noted to one Soviet leader that the concepts and assumptions that are no longer ap- that East Germany will open its borders. But be- statesmanship-of thoughtfulness, of insight, of name German Democratic Republic is outdated. plicable. neath this calm public response, there is grave the balance of prudence and courage-that the The GDR is not very democratic, it is becoming This, as former German prime minister Helmut concern about the scope of the German crisis and less and less German and at some point soon it will many governments prominently involved, including Schmidt recently observed, is primarily a problem Preservation the degree to which it could become explosive. our own, are able to bring to the shaping of it. cease to be a separate republic. He smiled sadly. for the Europeans themselves. They are the ones That crisis has now reopened the German ques- For ourselves, and for the other major powers of The Soviets have been shocked by the realiza- who will have to live with the solution;of it. We tion. In turn, that means that the future of Central both the NATO and the Warsaw Pacts, this situ- tion of how unpopular and unstable the communist cannot replace them in this primary responsibility; ation presents two great and complex problems, nor should we wish to. But a central component of Zbigniew Brzezinski was national security adviser regimes in Eastern Europe have become, As a con- in the Carter administration. This article is based sequence they are prepared to accept some new George Kennan is a retired professor at the this long-term problem will bei the/future of the on a trip report he prepared after visiting the Soviet formula for Hungary and Poland-and even Czech- Institute for Advanced Study and author of North Atlantic alliance; and we, as the leading Union from Oct. 26 to Nov. 2. See MOSCOW, D2, Col. 1 "Sketches From a Life.' See GERMANY, D2, Col. 1 MARY McGRORY 'Little Miss Smith,' You're Not Alone The Ordeal of Kitty Dukakis Perhaps We Who ve Been Homeless Too Can Help Save the Boarder Babies inanimate, unfeeling thing, in one foster is stocky, like a little football player, and HE DISTRESSFUL news about to end a thirst or end her life? The only By Pia McKay home after another? Will they shift from surprisingly strong. A young man comes in T Kitty Dukakis, who was rushed to certainty is that she wanted the world to school to school, constantly losing friends and swoops the ecstatic McFadden into his the hospital after she drank know how unhappy she is. rubbing alcohol, is another sad chapter O N FRIDAYS, for, most of this sum- until they lose the knack of friendship? Will arms, whisking him out for a tour of the Her misery may baffle other women. mer and fall, Itraveled by Metro to they, growing bigger, wind up as I did in corridors. When the man brings him back, in the post-election saga of the Dukakis She is pretty, talented, charming, adored D.C. General Hospital. I volunteered huge, understaffed institutions where, in- McFadden weeps unconsolably. "Oh, he just family. Last February, Kitty Dukakis got by her husband, surrounded by there with the boarder babies, those in- stead of talking with their mothers, they likes to be held," snorts the young man, institutional care for alcoholism. eminently satisfactory children. Her fants, who, if they could talk, would call the will make appointments with social work- leaving, as if a baby's desire to be held were She's coming out of her latest days are full. She makes speeches, hospital "home." Some of them have never ers; where their errant parents will casually of small account. There is Smitty, sweet and gentle. He is difficulty amid a clamor of public travels, is fussed over, applauded. It is in been outdoors, never seen the sky. They "get in touch" only to disappear heartbreak- have known no mother. All they know is ingly again? And then, at last, will they, as I crying, too. The moment I pick him up, he speculation. The most harrowing a way an extension of the campaign, rumor-that her husband would that a series of people come and go, picking did, "graduate" into the world, never having gives me a big, gummy smile. There is little which she loved. them up, talking to them, feeding and dress- known love, never having been needed for Miss Smith, propped up on her elbows, a resign-was put down. Was she trying All the aspects of her life add up to ing them and then putting them back in the love they had to give; not knowing they beauty with her big, brown eyes. The small Mary McGrory is a Washington Post quite a bit for those viewing it from the their cribs to cry to no avail. are worth anything at all? card attached to her crib reads: HIV pos- columnist. See McGRORY, D5, Col. 4 The babies' highly distinctive personal- I shake these thoughts away. The babies itive. ities are already emerging. With their tiny are all beautiful. They look out curiously, Each 3-by-5 crib, card tells a grim story. hands and arms, they reach out-often only like prisoners, from between the slats of The boarder babies have no first names. to meet the empty air. They get bored, their cribs. Most have been born to drug-addicted Inside Najibullah's Regime frustrated and, cruelest of all, lonely. McFadden is crying. Eight months old, he mothers; usually crack. Each time the An eerie feeling creeps over me. "Here mother got high, heart pounding, blood are the youngest of the homeless," I say to rushing to her head, her baby got high. Her myself. high lasted about half an hour; her baby's about 79 hours. And seldom is merely one them can be solved, or usefully treated, in- and particularly with other groups of pow- lishments have to be kept in existence until ers organized in the two alliances. The Ger- they can be examined under a wider focus dependently of the remainder of them. Their solution will require a great deal of mans could not unilaterally disarm these than the conditions of this day permit, there study, of preliminary discussion and ulti- forces or cause them to disappear even in PHOTO BY ROBERT LUNOW FOR THE WASHINGTON POST is no reason why the forces they now have mately of negotiation. The questions at the physical sense. Even less could they deployed in the center of Europe, already unilaterally disregard, nor would they want the necessity of an alternative framework of itarized one, standing alone in Europe, and grossly exhorbitant in relation to any de- hand are ones of great historical depth. to disregard, the contractual framework by security for the entire continent. At the not firmly embraced in some wider inter- monstrable need, should not be greatly re- Whoever undertakes the study of them (and which the presence of those forces is sup- center of the search for this alternative national structure-some structure that duced. That in itself would improve the at- that means all of us) is going to find himself confronting situations to which better an- ported. Beyond which, the very profiles of must stand-Germany. That country is now would absorb its energies and, by doing so, mosphere for the more wide-ranging explo- these great armies, in East as in West, are the gathering point of by far the greater give reassurance to Germany's neighbors. rations of the requirements for Europe's swers should have been found, but weren't, now under negotiation among some 28 part of the armed strength of the continent. But if Germany is to be embraced in some future security that await our attention. at the end of the last world war, and even countries. No German unification would be Its geographic position and its economic wider structure (and the possibilities of this A major requirement for progress in this some (arising from the break-up of the even thinkable without widespread agree- capacities will give it the central position in seem greater today than they did four dec- direction would be, however, a departure by Austro-Hungarian Empire) left unresolved ment among all these parties, individually any new framework of security that may be ades ago), there then arises the question: Washington and its leading NATO allies in 1918 and 1919. or collectively as members of one or anoth- devised. The problems that present them- Should Germany enter this larger structure from the silly belief that NATO's most ur- So complex, and so profound in its impli- cations is the task of designing this new er of the alliances, about the disposition and selves in the relationships of the two parts as a united entity? Or would it not be better, gent task is to frustrate an attack on West- political control of these forces. of Germany to each other and to their and even more reassuring to others, if the ern Europe by a militant Soviet Union, ac- Europe that it will not be accomplished at neighbors are not ones that can be solved two parts of that country, while culturally companied by its supposedly faithful and any one time, or subsumed in any single ew would deny that the system of F other than in relation to that new, and pre- and economically united, were to enter it as equally militant Warsaw Pact allies. We document or settlement. We are talking alliances on which European security sumably wider, security framework. separate political entities as they are today? must prepare instead for a searching exam- here of an edifice that will have to rest on has rested in these last three and a The principle by which most of us were It is precisely these questions, the an- ination of the ways in which Europe's se- many foundations. The erection of it will half decades, rooted as it is in Cold War as- Photo guided when we found ourselves faced, 40 swers to which will depend upon the nature curity is to be achieved in an age where the take years, not months. We will be lucky if sumptions which most of us would recog- years ago, with the problem of Germany's of the wider security arrangements for Eu- great enemy is not the Soviet Union but the the task is substantially accomplished be- nize today as extensively undermined, is future was this: that there must not again rope, that will have to be worked out; and rapid deterioration of our planet. as a sup- fore the end of the century. rapidly becoming obsolescent. This implies be a united Germany and particularly a mil- the one process must not precede the oth- porting structure for civilized life. Copy worsening of the economic situation makes Europe, some responded: Ah, yes, but we than 4,000 Polish officers were slaughtered Should America Help? me expect a deepening crisis of the system. can share our ancient Russian spiritual val- by Stalin's secret police in 1940. The dominant impression I took from my ues! The real danger to perestroika, I think, is conversations with Soviet officials, intellec- Ideologically, I sensed a total demoral- that it will simply drown in the morass of tuals and a few average citizens was of a ization. No ideological tenet is sacred. Le- Soviet incompetence and Russian tradi- MOSCOW, From D1 ment to traditional messianism. growing sense of anxiety. They eagerly ac- ninism is given lip service, largely because tion-or degenerate into chaos, When I was But there was a sense, too, of a leadership cepted any criticism of the Soviet Union, its that still provides some degree of legitima- (slovakia. I gave a speech at the Diplomatic asked for advice, I said that the Gorbachev overcome by problems, pressed down by current reality or itsiipast. Only once o cy for the system. In fact, the substance of Academy in Moscow and said that Czech- leadership needs to accelerate the process inertia. twice did I hear some defense of Leninism. most political ideas being discussed these The Soviets are reeling these days, as of change and to define more explicitly its oslovakia has at the very most a year or so Everyone seemed worried about the future, days is closer to social democracy, or Men- before it goes the way of Hungary and Po- much from their own internal economic direction, SO that the Soviet people will some even spoke about an approaching ca- shevism. have some vision of a more constructive land. I got no disagreement. problems as from the political revolution tastrophe. Explicit analogies were drawn by The Western pluralist system is acknowl- future-a vision more concretely defined. On Eastern Europe, the Soviet attitude that is sweeping Eastern Europe. I had a one or two interlocutors with "the time of edged implicitly as the superior system. To be specific: The time is approaching seems to be that any kind of internal change sense of a leadership overcome by problems troubles" in the early 17th century. There is still some pensive talk of "social- when the Soviet leadership must state ex- is acceptable in Poland and Hungary (and and of a pervasive social atmosphere of fa- ism," and the habit of thinking in such rig- n discussing the nationalities problem, plicitly that its objective is to transform the perhaps East Germany)-so long as these tigue and even despair. What struck me I viet hosts was "give us time. In other idly conceptual terms is deeply ingrained. countries remain within the Warsaw Pact. I especially was the gap between political the predominant attitude among my So- Soviet Union into a multiparty democracy, But the substance is clearly being diluted. ferment and political change on one hand based on the market system and organized suspect that the Soviets do not at this stage One Soviet adviser to Gorbachev even re- words, give us a chance for reforms, and as a confederation: Anything less than that want the reforms in Poland or Hungary to and economic stagnation and decay on the ferred, for example, to the possibility that fail, because this could have a very negative other, These trends seem to be moving in maybe the national issue will somehow dis- is likely to simply perpetuate the present the Communist Party of the Soviet Union opposite directions, sipate. I also sensed an intensification of state of confusion, and make the resolution impact on perestroika. This gives the West a soon might even be changing its name, Russian nationalism, a reaffirmation of tra- of ongoing problems more difficult. Politically, I think a breakthrough of sorts One surprising change is that the Soviet great deal of latitude in what it can do to has occurred. Everyone talks very openly ditional Russian values sensitivity to mass media are now competitive, in a style help the Hungarians and the Poles: any criticism directed at Russia itself. Gor- T he time may also be coming when we and nothing is taboo; the discussion is fo- somewhat reminiscent of the American in the United States should begin to he Soviets, in fact, would probably cused on how to democratize the Soviet bachev's key foreign policy adviser, Alex- press, When a "celebrity" appears in Mos- think about how we might help per- T Union. Even a multiparty system is no long- ander Yakovlev, particularly reflected that like Western help to be extended to cow, they all chase him and compete for estroika, in a way that will not damage us if them, too, One could sense a pleading er excluded-though it certainly is not Im- in his discussion with of the national interviews. I was repeatedly told by differ-: Gorbachev is overthrown. minent, At the same time, the predominant problem and in his evident resentment of tone in their repeated Inquiries about my ent Soviet newspapers how many more The problem with perestroika has been reality is that of economic deterioration, of Polish demands for reparations for Stalinist readers they had than their rivals and why I that it begs the question: perestrolka of views on perestroika and whether, in some a massive and appalling backwardness and crimes should therefore give them an interview what to what? If Gorbachev continues to fashion, the West could help. Their major even poverty. Socio-economically, the So- Russian nationalism seemed in evidence first, There is great fascination with "ene- talk about revitalizing "socialism," he will concern is stability and the preservation of viet Union gives one the overwhelming Im- everywhere, It surfaced in the poems being my". views, including mine. People were not inspire enthusiasm at home or trust some sort of East bloc alliance system- pression of a stagnant Third World country. read on the Arbat. It emerged injmy con- citing my previous writings-pointing out, abroad. But we should encourage the So- with unlimited toleration for Internal This contrast between a political situa- versations with Russian officals on the sub- for example, that I had predicted years ago viets to believe that if they make fundamen- change-unless it assumes explicitly "anti- tion which is becoming more dynamic- ject of. Gorbachev's "common European that the national problem in the Soviet tal changes, they too will be part of the new Russian" manifestations. Some Soviet offi- though its dynamism is still uninstitution- house.' When I remarked that the Soviets, Union would become acute. To my surprise, alignment that is taking shape in Europe. cials even spoke explicitly of the need to get alized and a basic commitment to genuine with their Third World living standards, Soviet TV even gave extensive coverage to We have to say to the Russians: If you bite rid of the empire and of the costly commit- democracy has not been made-and the might not have much to offer the rest of my visit to the Katyn Forest, where more the bullet, we will be ready to help you. 11 perience of World War II. Struggle a center of light industry, Ivanovo had a nored the nostrums of the planning system. "The customer IS God," says Kabaidze. John Kiser runs a company that acquires of the most existential nature began in reputation in the postwar Soviet Union as a He refused to make products specified by "My success came because I thought hor- rights to Eastern bloc high technology. He is 1942 when a 17-year-old Kabaidze went "city of women." The men were off else- the plan unless they were needed by his izontally, not vertically. I worked to make the author of "Communist Entrepreneurs," into the infantry to fight the Germans. where, working in heavy industry. customers. Nor would he accept Soviet-sup- my customers satisfied, not my bureaucrat- published by Franklin Watts, from which Kabaidze, three times wounded, was one of The plant that Kabaidze had been asked plied equipment if it was not up to world ic bosses. In the end, it was my customers this article is adapted. two soldiers to survive in a unit that fought to direct had been marked for light, simple standards. He was even accused of being who protected me." er. Anything else could create complica- Reunification? Not Yet tions that no one would wish to invite but that no one might see the way to avoid. It is for this reason that even if the liberalization of political conditions in Eastern Europe GERMANY, From D1 It is none too early to start the thinking were to progress in the near future to a that will have to go into this great effort. power in that grouping, cannot avoid a point where they were little different from But it is important, at the same time, that measure of involvement. To meet that re- the conditions prevailing in the German the excitements of the moment do not rush Federal Republic, this would of itself be no ОДОЦЕ! sponsibility is going to take a great deal us into hasty and unthought-through deci- reason for an immediate German unifica- more, in the way of thought and discus- sions, or even discussions, that could prej- tion; and this is, therefore, not the time to sion-discussion among ourselves, but also udice an ultimately sound resolution of any raise the subject: with the Europeans, including the Rus- of the major questions involved. Copy sians-than we have given it to date. The best example of this danger will be hat this problem involves is tre- found in the loose talk that has marked the Visit 0 ur immediate problem is to see how the process of change now overtak- W mendous in scope and difficulty. It discussion of recent days about German ing the countries of the eastern part of Europe, and the adjustment of their re- involves the relationship of East- reunification. Many people talk about this as institute if it were something that would or could lations with Russia which these changes Preservation em Europe, economically and politically, to easily and naturally flow from any extensive and in involve, can be eased in a manner conducive the European Community. It involves the liberalization of conditions in East Germany. that as $ to the peace and security of the continent in future of both NATO and the Warsaw Pact. This view takes little account of the true name 160000 the immediately forthcoming period-so It involves the military arrangements now pertaining in the center of the European depths of the problem. There must now be that time can be won for the far more ar- something well over a million armed men on duous and lengthy process of finding a new continent. It involves the various negotia- German territory, with all their elaborate European order. The best contribution this tions now in progress over the conventional arms balance in Europe. It involves the re- modern equipment and, in the case of our- country and its leading NATO allies can lationship between the two parts of Ger- selves and the Russians, with nuclear as make to this immediate task will be to in- well as conventional weapons. These forces tensify their efforts to achieve far-reaching many, and the attitudes to be taken toward the possibility, and desirability, of their uni- are there not by the will of the German au- reductions of conventional arms in Europe. thorities alone but by elaborate and long- If, pending wider agreements, the two al- fication These problems are all of a part. None of standing agreements with other powers, liances and their respective military estab- and particularly with other groups of pow- lishments have to be kept in existence until them can be solyed, or usefully treated, in- dependently of the remainder of them. ers organized in the two alliances. The Ger- they can be examined under a wider focus Their solution will require a great deal of mans could not unilaterally disarm these than the conditions of this day permit, there PHOTO BY ROBERT LUNOW FOR THE WASHINGTON POST forces or cause them to disappear even in is no reason why the forces they now have study, of preliminary discussion and ulti- mately of negotiation. The questions at the physical sense. Even less could they deployed in the center of Europe, already unilaterally disregard, nor would they want the necessity of an alternative framework of itarized one, standing alone in Europe, and grossly exhorbitant in relation to any de- hand are ones of great historical depth. to disregard, the contractual framework by security for the entire continent. At the not firmly embraced in some wider inter- monstrable need, should not be greatly re- Whoever undertakes the study of them (and which the presence of those forces is sup- center of the search for this alternative national structure-some structure that duced. That in itself would improve the at- that means all of us) is going to find himself ported. Beyond which, the very profiles of must stand-Germany. That country is now would absorb its energies and, by doing so, mosphere for the more wide-ranging explo- confronting situations to which better an- these great armies, in East as in West, are the gathering point of by far the greater give reassurance to Germany's neighbors. rations of the requirements for Europe's swers should have been found, but weren't, now under negotiation among some 28 part of the armed strength of the continent. But if Germany is to be embraced in some future security that await our attention. at the end of the last world war, and even countries. No German unification would be Its geographic position and its economic wider structure (and the possibilities of this A major requirement for progress in this some (arising from the break-up of the even thinkable without widespread agree- capacities will give it the central position in seem greater today than they did four dec- direction would be, however, a departure by Austro-Hungarian Empire) left unresolved ment among all these parties, individually any new framework of security that may be ades ago), there then arises the question: Washington and its leading NATO allies in 1918 and 1919. or collectively as members of one or anoth- devised. The problems that present them- Should Germany enter this larger structure from the silly bëlief that NATO's most ur- So complex, and so profound in its impli- er of the alliances, about the disposition and selves in the relationships of the two parts as a united entity? Or would it not be better, gent task is to frustrate an attack on West- cations is the task of designing this new political control of these forces. of Germany to each other and to their and even more reassuring to others, if the ern Europe by a militant Soviet Union, ac- Europe that it will not be accomplished at neighbors are not ones that can be solved two parts of that country, while culturally companied by its supposedly faithful and any one time, or subsumed in any single ew would deny that the system of F other than in relation to that new, and pre- and economically united, were to enter it as equally militant Warsaw Pact (allies. We document or settlement. We are talking alliances on which European security sumably wider; security framework. separate political entities as they are today? must prepare instead for a searching exam- here of an:edifice that will have to rest on has rested in these last three and a The principle by which most of us were It is precisely these questions, the an- ination of the ways in which Europe's se- many foundations. The erection of it will half decades, rooted as it is in Cold War as- guided when we found ourselves faced, 40 swers to which will depend upon the nature curity is to be achieved in an age where the take years, not months. We will be lucky if sumptions which most of us would recog- years ago, with the problem of Germany's of the wider security arrangements for Eu- great enemy is not the Soviet Union but the the task is substantially accomplished be- nize today as extensively undermined, is future was this: that there must not again rope, that will have to be worked out; and rapid deterioration of our planet as a sup- fore the end of the century. rapidly becoming obsolescent. This implies be a united Germany, and particularly a mil- the one process must not precede the oth- porting structure for civilized life. worsening of the economic situation makes Europe, some responded: Ah, yes, but we than 4,000 Polish officers were slaughtered Should America Help? me expect a deepening crisis of the system. can share our ancient Russian spiritual val- by Stalin's secret police in 1940. The dominant impression I took from my ues! The real danger to perestroika, I think, is conversations with Soviet officials, intellec- Ideologically, I sensed a total demoral- that it will simply drown in the morass of tuals and a few average citizens was of a ization. No ideological tenet is sacred. Le- Soviet incompetence and Russian tradi- ment to traditional messianism. MOSCOW, From D1 growing sense of anxiety. They eagerly ac- ninism is given lip service, largely because tion-or degenerate into chaos. When I was But there was a sense, too, of a leadership cepted any criticism of the Soviet Union, its that still provides some degree of legitima- asked for advice, I said that the Gorbachev slovakia. I gave a speech at the Diplomatic overcome by problems, pressed down by current reality or its past. Only once or cy for the system. In fact, the substance of leadership needs to accelerate the process Academy in Moscow and said that Czech- inertia. twice did I hear some defense of Leninism. most political ideas being discussed these of change and to define more explicitly its oslovakia has at the very most a year or so The Soviets are reeling these days, as Everyone seemed worried about the future, days is closer to social democracy, or Men- direction, so that the Soviet people will before it poes the way of Hungary and Pn- much from their own internal economic come spoke about an annroaching ca- shevism. have some vision of a more constructive al Steps to German Unity: Bonn as a Power first anti-drug cartel id The final document issued by the a conference included few specific eco- se nomic, military or law-enforcement tht By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN m with MICHAEL R. GORDON Accord on Europe inevitable reunification of Germany agreements. And as expected,- Mr. In these latter negotiations, the Bush left Colombia,after, the nine and ite Specialto The New York Times Anatomy of a Decision Four once the undisputed without offering any as WASHINGTON Feb. Germany's the billion, to Bonn-as Tuesday rt- equal. West Germany used its weight gional aid program he has already sent from-the 23 NATO, to Congress. sion nations milled around hall of tion of several-days-ofr behind-the- In world affairs, as well as the political The final document did not discuss to the Ottawa Congress Center, the Soviet scenes diplomacy that was kept secret momentum of change within its bor- that aid program, which I alreadyl Foreign Minister, Eduard A. Shevard- not only from the public but from many ders and In East Germany to help under attack by Democrate nadze and Secretary of State James A. allied governments as well. The talks shape many of the terms of the Ottawa Joseph TI Baker 3d stood off in a corher, whisper- resulted in a new United States-Soviet framework for determining how led chairman of the Senate Judiciary Com- da; Ing to one another through Russian Understanding on troop levels-in Eu- united Germany will fit Into a post cold co- mittee, has offered his own program, IBC for- translator. rope. war European order which would shift Mr. Bush's emphasis H re- Mr. Shevardnadze reported that the But probably more important, they How It Happened on military and law-enforcement pro- Soviet Union would back down and ac- also resulted in an arrangement for H cept President Bush's proposal for how the four World War II Allies A reconstruction of the negotiations, grams to economic aid. es- B S. Britain, France, the United States and based on dozens of interviews today Lunch at Naval Academy ent troop cuts in Europe, which would 1 leave the United States with a 30,000- the Soviet Union - would deal with the and in recent weeks, found these steps: The four leaders met for nearly three liti- JUB man advantage. other major development on the conti- 9Bush Administration officials hours and then ate lunch together P nent: negotiations for a seemingly worked behind the scenes to consult This conversation was the culmina- under heavy guard in the Naval Acad- cap separately with British, French and emy of Cartagena, a coastal city that pr West German leaders to forge a.con- was flooded with the most Intensive se- oju sensus on dealing with German unifica- curity ever mounted for a trip by Mr. tion, before discussing the matter with Bush: Thousands of Colombian soldiers Buja Moscow guarded the streets of Cartagena and th 9Britain, France and the Sovlet stood guard in the trees on the edge of Union Initially preferred that the four the airport runways in this city 60 arior Allied powers discuss the future of Ger- miles to the southwest, where Mr. Bush Fede many among themselves and not; at landed and took off first, with the Germans but Wash- The President roared into the meet- Ington talked them into bringing the ing site in fleet of three Marine Corps Germans in from the start. helicopters, which skimmed the tree- JOnce the Germans were brought tops and conducted a series of high- ase into the process, Bonn insisted on ex- speed maneuvers to foll any possible cluding the other nations of the 16. attack. Colombian and United States thes member North Atlantic Treaty Organi- warships patrolled offshore while zation from these' discussions. The United States counterterrorist units West Germans, in a bit of muscle flex- and frogmen guarded the land and sea un W ing, wqanted to make It clear that they approaches to the meeting site. would deal only with those Allied In between meetings, Mr. Bush and yın Continued on Page A9, Column Continued on Page A12, Column I In Bonn's Parliament, Insults Fly in Debate on Unification source By SERGE SCHMEMANN Specialto The Now York Times BONN, Feb. 15 Catcalls and Democrats and the Social Democrats charges echoed through the West Ger- of burying German unity under a man Parliament today as it gave a "brutal party fight for power." rowdy and heated foretaste of the do- The exchanges were as fierce as any mestic political struggle shaping over seen on the Parliament's floor, and the German unity. Speaker; Rita Sussmuth, was often Among many exchanges of Insults, hard pressed to restore order, She ap- Novesti Press opposition Social Democrats called pealed to the members of Parliament sign in Troubled Sovlet Republic Chancellor Helmut Kohl a rabble- "to give a model for democracy to the nbe, the capital of the Party and government leaders, the press agency rouser and accused him of handling people of East Germany." oviet troops on Wednes- Tass said, submitted their resignations after nearly a reunification as his private business. The formal agenda of the session The Christian Democrats retallated of the Communist Party, week of violence that left at least 18 dead. Page A8. was to hear Mr. Kohl's report on with salvos aimed at the former rela- progress toward unification. "We have tions between the Social Democrats never been SO close to our goal, the and the East German Communist unity of all Germans in freedom, as we From Reagan Iran-Contra Testimony party, focusing on a declaration of joint are today," the Chancellor said. goals the two parties signed two years He halled President Mikhall S. Gor- ago. bachev, the Soviet leader, for opening Greene, came on the same day that the The Justice Department said the in- 'Brutal Party Fight for Power' the door to reunification by declaring Bush Administration joined Mr. Rea- formation in the diary entries was last Saturday that it was for the Ger- gan's efforts to try to shield Mr. Rea- Federal available elsewhere, "most specifi- Alfred Dregger, the Christian Demo- mans to decide their future, and he gan's diaries from public scrutiny. The cally from the oral testimony of the for- crats' floor leader, shouted at the oppo- thanked West Germany's Western ews or- Administration asserted executive mer President himself," an apparent sition that "for a long time you were at allies for standing by. It through the m being privilege, as Mr. Reagan had already reference to Mr. Reagan's deposition peace with the wall and barbed wire." years of the cold war. resident done, to prevent the disclosure of the d under that is to come Friday. He said the Social Democrats' leader, Mr. Kohl sought to reassure East former President's White House dia- Judge Greene ruled two weeks ago Hans Jochen Vogel, was behaving S role in ries that might be related to the case. that Mr. Reagan must turn over some "with the sourness of a petty book- Continued on Page A8, Column 1 je judge Presidents have cited the privilege in ed video- diary excerpts, but said he is reconsid- keeper to the historical successes for an effort to keep private documents se- ering because Mr. Reagan's lawyers the future of Germany. # NW snow THE NEW YORK cret, saying that overwhelming need From the environmentalist Greens, TIMES available evoked executive privilege in refusing for home office irold H. for them must be demonstrated. to comply. Judge Greene said later that Will Hoss accused both the Christian delivery in most major U.S. cities. IN WOOD- CONGRATULATIONS SMITH COLLEGE! THE Mr. Reagan's claim of executive privi- JEWISH WOMEN/GIRLS REMEMBER TO LIGHT Please call this tall-- Ing complete largest capital campaign ever mounted by liberal arts col- Shabbat candles 18 minutos before sunset. In NYC 5:13. free number: 1-800- For million!-- ADVT. Continued on Page A18, Column 4 Info 1-718-774-2060-ADVT 07 631-2500 ADVT. Photo copy Preservation for indepeno decision on secession not to an individ- German aggression will be understood to give up the party mentary vote that ended its 20 years of ence, the Latvian Parliament's deci- In a visit to Lithuania last month, ual republic but to the Soviet legisla- and supported, for other reasons, by tutional monopoly on political power. 13 independence brought the republic into sion to demand an independent state President Mikhail S. Gorbachev said ture. Germany's other European neighbors, criticism of the party has become sur- which remember what such aggression prisingly open. "I think the C.P.S.U. is unable tc break with its past,' Mikhail Chulaki, The Germans non-Communist, wrote in the weeklyss Moscow News this week, using the ini-38 tials for the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. "Was there ever a 'van't In Bonn's Parliament, Insults guard role?' When? Under Stalin under Khrushchev, under Brezhnev. Le., under regimes that either dripped Fly in Debate on Unification with blood or were more liberal but al-of ways totalitarian.' Now, with the economy in a sham bles, the Communist Party's authority Continued From Page Al The prospect of the economic union rapidly vanishing, separatism growing of the Germanys has shaken bond in at least 6 of the 15 constituent repub- Germans that they will not be swal- markets, pushing Interest rates high- lics and Soviet military might irrele- er. Business Day, page DI. lowed up in the drive toward reunifica- vant to any conceivable solution; Mr. 5 tion, and West Germans that the costs Gorbachev has apparently decided? That stance drew heated attacks in that he cannot save the system that involved will not affect their social Parliament today from the opposition held the country together by force for [1 benefits. "What is at stake here is not the ab- 70 years. "Our compatriots in the G.D.R. can gai sorption of the G.D.R. or a territory nem be sure of our solidarity," he said. without government," Mr. Vogel de- clared, intimating that this was Mr. Economic Bid to West edip "And to fellow citizens in West Germa-, ny, I want to say that our social net will Kohl's goal. "What we face here is unit- The question, in many minds, be tightly knit in the future." ing with a people that has won its free- whether he can even get it to survive, dom by itself.' long enough to replace it with a freen High Stakes, Aggressive Race Opposition legislators also inter- economic and political system capable) But during Mr. Kohl's address the rupted with jeers that Mr. Kohl had of being integrated with the Western, been "too friendly" with the now-dis economy. Prime Minister Nikolai the catcalls began, demonstrating how graced East German leader, Erich Ho- Ryzhkov, on a visit to Australia this inextricably the process toward reuni- necker, who visited Bonn two years week, said that he hoped that the Soviet fication has become enmeshed in the photo ago. Union could be ready by 1995, but that heated election campaigns of both East and West Germany. The Heavy Part of History full integration might take 10 to 15, years. Both the Christian Democrats and Mr. Kohl yelled back: "Do you want Reuters "They can't force it," a Western dip- the Social Democrats have effectively me to read out your joint statement? Chancellor Helmut Kohl of West Germany, left, Genscher, the only speaker to win the applause of lomat said. "They can only get it usurped the campaign toward the East Only a few weeks ago you were against was at the center of a stormy Parliament discussion German elections on March 18, fielding unity." the full house, said unity, of the two Germanys "is through cooperation. copy surrogate parties and campaigning ar- To this, Mr. Vogel shot back that the on reunification. Foreign Minister Hans-Dietrich Thus, he explained, Moscow has one reachable only on the basis of total equality." more reason not to stand in the way of dently for them. Mr. Kohl plans the Christian Democrats were the only unification of the two Germanys; which first of six campaign appearances next party supporting a "former block together constitute a little less than Tuesday in Erfurt, and all leaders of party." The East German Christian Honecker Says He Takes Blame for 89 Vote Fraud one-sixth of total Soviet foreign tradevo the Social Democrats will be criss- Democrats, a party which the West "Would they rather have 77 million Preservation crossing East Germany on the stump. German Christian Democrats support, Germans with them or against them? After March 18, the race will shift to was for the past 40 years one of the this diplomat asked rhetorically. MOTOR the West German elections on Dec. 2. small political organizations main But Soviet officials concede; private-C The winner will probably be the first tained as window dressing by the Com- By FERDINAND PROTZMAN, munists. Special to The New York Times Responsibility sion that validated the May elections. ly, that they lost control over events in chancellor of a reunited Germany. Mr. Krenz was ousted from office later Germany in-October, when Erich Ho- Such high stakes have insured a As in the past, the only speaker to BONN, Feb. 15 Erich Honecker highly aggressive race, made all the win the applause of the full house was the former East German leader, took but no criminal last year. necker lost control to the demonstra The concern about voting fraud is tors in the streets in Leipzig and East more SQ by the fact that the major par- Foreign Minister Hans Dietrich Gen- political responsibility today for vote fraud in local elections last year as well intent, East being fed by an increase in political Berlin. ties are now essentially agreed on the scher, who has earned general respect tensions ahead of East Germany's first Threat of 'the Streets' need for rapid unity. The exchanges in for consistently predicting that Mr. as the nation's current crisis, but free elections, scheduled for March 18. Parliament indicate that both parties Gorbachev would be the key to Ger- denied any criminal guilt. German says. The voters, who previously could only will try to take credit for unity and to man unity, and for shaping the agree- Mr. Honecker's admission was read The streets here have begun 15/1972 to be: cast ballots for candidates from the depict the other as soft on unity and as ments with the World War II Allies that on national television this evening by Communist Party or the four small trouble, On Feb. 4;as many as half a fellow traveler of the old Govern have cleared the way for reunfication. Rainer Eppelmann, a pastor and lead: Mr. Eppelmann, a Protestant minis- parties that were its docile allies, will a million people took to the squares of ment. "The unity of the two Germanys is ing figure in the oppostion group Demo- Moscow in support of various causes, cratic Awakening He said Mr. Ho- ter and the best-known member of be confronted by an array of parties. reachable only on the basis of total including faster change. On Feb. 26, the Implications for West Germany equality," Mr. Genscher said, drawing necker had issued the statement from Democratic Awakening, has assisted The March elections will be over- masses are expected to converge on West German officials are also talk a burst of applause. another pastor's home, where he is public prosecutors in the widening in- shadowed by a single dominating issue, the capital again, and some Commu ing about the possibility that the timing "West Germany must offer freedom, staying while awaiting trial on charges quiry into vote manipulation in those reunification of the two Germanys. nist officials fear that eventually, fithe of unification could have important unity-democracy and social justice. of treason, misrule and corruption. elections by the East German Commu- Chancellor Helmut Kohl, who wel- streets" will go out of control repercussions on West German poli- But the G.D.R. does not come this way After reiterating his admission nist Party. comed Mr. Honecker on the East Ger- In Azerbaijan, Tadzhikistan and tics. If unification is achieved by this with empty hands. The people there political responsibility for East. Ger Lothar Reuter, the Deputy Prosecu- man leader's trip to West Germany in Armenia, they already have, and the fall, it is possible that East Germans carried the heavy portion of German many's troubles, Mr. Honecker (said, tor in charge of the inquiry, said in the 1986, said today that East Germany's results are ethnic strife and bloodshed. might be permitted to vote in West history." "This also applies to the circum- same television broadcast that officials next government would seek unifica- The Communist parties there are Germany's elections, thereby affecting The applause seemed to reflect in stances that led to vote fraud on May were investigating whether local elec- tion as quickly as possible. under attack and collapsing almost as; the outcome. But the details of unifica- part the universal awareness that Mr. 1989. tion boards were forced to manipulate Mr.' Honecker's political standing fast as their equivalents did in Eastern, tion are still to be worked out, and in Genscher comes from East Germany, ""At the same time I want to empha- vote totals under pressure from the and physical health have declined Europe last fall, and perhaps for, the cluded in the unaswered questions are a fact that is believed to have shaped size that I never made a political deci- East German Communist Party. He steadily, After he was deposed, the 77- same reason: They were artificial Rus-. the type of government to emerge from much of his work as Foreign Minister. sion for egoistic motives, and that Ifeel said that 47 people were under investi- year-old former General Secretary of sian implants. unification, and whether East Ger- The Foreign Minister will visit his free from any. guilt in the criminal gation, including two former Commu- the Communist Party was forced to Now, as the streets deteriorate, oil many would just be absorbed into the home city of Halle in East Germany to- sense," Mr. Honecker said. nist mayors of major cities. leave his luxurious villa in the East production falls, feed grain runs out existing West German political map 01 morrow to deliver his first speech Dissatisfaction with the election re- Inquiry Into Party Role Berlin suburb of Wandlitz. With no- and meat disappears from the stores in a new system created: there. sult contributed to the exodus of East where to turn, he and his wife, Marga- the Ukraine, in Russia, all over the Since Feb. 6, when Mr. Kohl first pro- After living through decades of elec- Germans via Hungary last summer ret, sought refuge with a minister. country, the worry is that all state au- posed quick progress toward monetary Your Money: tions with preordained results, East and became a rallying point for opposi- Mr. Honecker's statement appeared thority may soon be in danger. union, he has made clear that he in- Germans became irate last May when tion groups. The issue dogged Mr. Ho- Saturday, in part to refute comments by East Few diplomats here think Mr. Gorba- tends to position himself as the Chan- returns in: local elections failed to necker even after his fall from power German officials with whom he has chev has much time to think up devious cellor of all Germans and their guide tc in Business Day register an anti-Communist protest of in late October. had contact that he is unable to com- strategies to hoodwink the West into rapid union. organized abstention and the casting of Mr. Honecker's successor, Egon prehend the events that have swept giving up its own interests in Western blank ballots by some voters. Krenz, chaired the election commis- East Germany in recent months. Europe. He is just hoping to salvage what he can of his own. THE NEW YORK TIMES INTERNATIONAL FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 16, 1990 A9 Upheaval in the East: The Gamble of Diplomats Diplomacy How German Unity Advanced: A Muscular Bonn Prevails on the Big Four Continued From Page Al On Feb. 5, Mr. Baker began a trip to Dizzying Speed Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union. Copy photo powers that had postwar legal rights in At the last minute, his schedulers Berlin. added a stop in Shannon, Ireland, at 5 German Disunity, A.M. for a meeting with the French Foreign Minister, Roland Dumas. Dur- Other Loose Ends Setting the Stage ing the one-hour talk, Mr. Dumas also signed on to the "two-plus-four" con- It was at this juncture that Mr. She- cept, but only after saying that his first vardnadze also informed Mr. Baker The Wall Falls, preference was also "four plus zero." that Mr. Gorbachev was ready to ac- As the reunification negotiations cept Mr. Bush's original troop offer. The Allies Respond progressed, pressure was building in Mr. Baker was pleased but some- the United States and in Europe for Mr. what taken aback. No one had really After the opening of the Berlin wall Bush to propose a deeper cut in Soviet expected Mr. Gorbachev to come on Nov. 10, Administration officials as- and American conventional forces in around so soon. The Soviet leader was sumed that the unification process Europe than he had presented to NATO apparently playing from a much would unfold gradually, and that no leaders in May. At the urging of Mr. weaker hand than anyone thought. Mr. serious moves on their part would be Scowcroft, Gen. Colin L. Powell, chair- Baker walked out of the hall and tele- required until the East German elec- man of the Joint Chiefs-of Staff, devel- phoned President Bush with the news. tions, then scheduled for May. oped the plan to cut American and Mr. Shevardnadze phoned President But on Jan. 28, with thousands of Soviet troops in Central Europe to Gorbachev to get his reaction to the East Germans still flocking to the West 195,000, with the United States keeping two-plus-four language. every day, East German authorities 30,000 soldiers elsewhere in the region. Meanwhile, the President had been announced that they were advancing conducting his own telephone diplo- the election date to March 18. They macy on Tuesday morning, speaking simply could not hold the country to- Meetings In Moscow twice with Chancellor Kohl. Mr. Bush gether until May. Since pro-unification knowing that Mr. Genscher and Mr. parties were expected to sweep the elections, Administration officials real- Visit by Baker Kohl, political allies of necessity in Bonn's governing coalition; dislike ized that a unified Germany was no longer a possibility - it was all but a A Turning Point each other and often do not even tell each other what they are doing de- certainty. cided that he had to personally make So the Administration decided to On Feb. 7, Mr. Baker flew into Mos- certain that Mr. Kohl approved of the come up with its own plan to manage cow. That night, he had a private meet- two-plus-four deal that Mr. Genscher reunification. President Bush con- ing with Mr. Shevardnadze and tried to was striking with Mr. Baker. Mr. Kohl sulted with his national security advis- bring up Germany, but the Soviet offi- told the President that he was willing, er, Brent Scowcroft, and the deputy ad- cial said that topic would have to be and the President gavé Mr: Baker his viser, Robert M. Gates, and Mr. Baker taken up with President Mikhail S. Gor-1 green light. with his key aides Robert Zoellick, bachev himself. The next morning, Mr. Two hours later, Mr. Shevardnadze State Department counselor; Dennis Baker presented the two-plus-four con- and Mr. Baker met again in a private B. Ross, the department's Director of cept to the Soviet leader as they sat conference. room. Mr. Shevardnadze Policy Planning, and Raymond G. H. around a huge table in the Kremlin's said that Mr. Gorbachev supported the Seitz, Assistant Secretary of State for Catherine Hall. Mr. Gorbachev was in- Idea but that he needed some changes European Affairs. Mr. Seitz eventually trigued by the two-plus-four idea, but in the text. First, it could not mention produced a version of the plan adopted noncommittal. He too made it clear the March 18 East German election at Ottawa. It became known as the that he shared the British and French date, or suggest that this was the event "two-plus-four"concept. preference for "four plus zero." that would trigger the two-plus-four Under this formula, after the East "One of the things that is very strik- meeting. This was done to mollify his German elections were over the two ing about dealing with Shevardnadze East German allies and to avoid treat- Germanys would get together and dis- and Gorbachev right now is that they ing unification, or the dissolution of cuss their economic, political and legal will listen to your arguments,' a senior East Germany;a a foregone conclu- unification. After that, the United State Department official said. "These sion. States, Britain, France and the Soviet are not stylized discussions. They tend Mr. Shevardnadze also insisted, ap- Union would sit down with the two Ger- to be very relaxed. When you make a parently on behalf of the Poles, that the manys and discuss the size of the army case that they think is reasonable, they statement contain a line saying that the their unified state might have, its rela- will come right back and tell you: two-plus-four discussions would deal. tionship to NATO and security guaran- 'Well, you know, that's reasonable. with "issues of security of the neigh- teesfor its neighbors. And there was quite a bit of that in the boring states.' Mr: Baker and President Bush de- discussion on the Germanys." Once this language was approved, cided that they would keep the two- But the German question was not the news photographers were summoned plus-four idea closely held and begin only issue Mr. Baker had to discuss for pictures of the two German Foreign secretly polling the three other Allies, with the Soviets. There was also the Ministers and those of the four Allied one by one. They would not tell the question of how they would respond to countries standing together. No one other members of NATO, until and un- President Bush's troop proposal, with was told why. Moments later, their less there was an agreement among its insistence on American troop su- two-plus-four announcement was re- the four, plus the two Germanys. periority in Europe. This was to drive leased. Members of the press got it be- home the point that the Soviets, who fore most other NATO ministers. The The first serious discussion of the were in Europe as occupiers, might Dutch, Italians and Belgians were in- idea took place on Jan. 29, when the have to leave at the behest of their. censed and began asking for some British Foreign Secretary, Douglas allies, but that the Americans were Secretary of State James A: Baker 3d and Foreign Minister Eduard A. Shevardnadze of the Soviet Union, changes in the text, particularly for Hurd, met with Mr. Baker in Washing there by invitation and would not be ton. Mr. Hurd, who had been thinking leaving entirely. right, conferring on Tuesday at closing session of meeting in Ottawa of NATO and Warsaw Pact ministers. some reference not only to the security of states neighboring Germany, but along similar lines, indicated that his Mr. Gorbachev accepted the basic also in the rest of Europe. Government's preference would be principle of lower troon levels. but gave told Dutch, Italians and Belgians were in- Canadian Press Americans were censed and began asking for some Hurd; met with Mr. Baker in Washing- there by invitation and would not be Secretary of State James A. Baker 3d and Foreign Minister Eduard A. Shevardnadze of the Soviet Union, changes in the text, particularly for ton Mr. Hurd, who had been thinking leaving entirely. right, conferring on Tuesday at closing session of meeting in Ottawa of NATO and Warsaw Pact ministers. some reference not only to the security along similar lines, indicated that his Mr. Gorbachev accepted the basic of states neighboring Germany, but Government's preference would be principle of lower troop levels, but gave also in the rest of Europe. "four plus zero" that is, the four out the British and the French decid- Mr. Baker a counterproposal: both A Baker aide mused that if anyone own handwriting, whispered to the "They were told in no uncertain Allied powers getting together to dis- ing the fate of Germany, he would sides would go down to either 195,000 was tapping the phone calls between the ministers, they would have heard Soviet Foreign Minister the proposed terms that this was a matter for the cuss the fate of Germany, at first with- avoid any personal contact with Mr. men or 225,000 men, but not 195,000 for Kohl in Moscow. language the Western Allies were sug- Allied powers with legal rights in Ger- out; the Germans. Nevertheless, he the Soviets and 225,000 for the Amer- some of the most momentous issues in Instead, Mr. Baker sent Mr. Kohl a gesting for two plus four. Mr. Shevard- many and nobody else." an Adminis- gave London's backing to two plus four. icans. Administration officials say they postwar politics being?discussed with nadze's translator wrote it all down in tration official said. "That is why the Four-days later, the West German three-page, for-your-eyes-only note, believe that this idea may have been stunning frankness. At several points, Russian, and Mr. Shevardnadze said he deal was cut this way, we told them, Foreign Minister, Hans-Dietrich Gen- laying out Mr. Gorbachev's reactions generated by the Soviet arms-control Mr. Baker was jogging back and forth scher, flew to Washington for a private to the two-plus-four idea. Mr. Baker would have to call Mr. Gorbachev. and if you don't like it, sorry, but bureaucracy and that Mr. Gorbachev between meetings with Mr. Genscher you have no legal rights." chat with Mr. Baker, during which the then took off for Bulgaria and Romania and Mr. Shevardnadze: decided he had nothing to lose by see- Secretary first laid out the two-plus- on his way to a conference in Ottawa on ing if he could bluff the Americans into four idea to him. Mr. Genscher liked it, the "open skies" proposal for air mis- On Tuesday morning, Mr. Baker, Mr. accepting it. but he wanted to make certain that it sions over other nations' territories. Hurd, Mr. Dumas and Mr. Genscher was two plus four, and not four plus While in Ottawa, Mr. Baker, Mr. Gen- had breakfast at the West German scher, Mr. Hurd, Mr. Dumas and Mr. Embassy in Ottawa and hammered out Phone: two. That is, he wanted to make sure Success in Ottawa that the two Germanys would first Shevardnadze, who were supposed to the proposed language of the two-plus- be dealing with "open skies, were in four arrangement. They decided then determine the nature of their unifica- tion on their own, and then deal with A Deal Is Struck fact simply going from one meeting that if they could get Mr. Shevardnadze the other powers on external security with each other, to another. Most of the to sign on to it now, they should do it. Copy On Troop Cuts other NATO and Warsaw Pact foreign Events in Germany were moving too issues. ministers did not have a clue as to what fast, they reasoned, and if they broke Mr. Genscher also told Mr. Baker Mr. Baker left Moscow without a they were talking about. up in Ottawa without an understanding, that his Government would have noth- Soviet answer to the German question, Mr. Baker's private secretary, it would be that much more difficult ing to do with a "2-plus-15" arrang- later. Fashion ment the two Germanys and the 15 and with the troop proposal in limbo. Karen Jackson, carried around the Just as Mr. Baker was packing to schedules of each of the other minis- From that breakfast, Mr. Baker other members of NATO deciding the leave, the West German Chancellor, ters, which were constantly being up- drove back to a full session of the open- German future. Nor would he accept Helmut Kohl, and his Foreign Minister, dated. For instance, the Soviets would skles conference. As ministers milled "four plus zero." He also said that conscious women Mr. Genscher, were arriving for their call to say that Mr. Shevardnadze was around the oval meeting table, Mr. West Germany would not put its future in the hands of the 35 members of the own meeting with Mr. Gorbachev. going to be at his embassy for 30 Baker walked over to Mr. Shevardna- Mr. Baker decided that in order to minutes, and then in his suite for an dze with a scrap of paper in his hand. Conference on Security and Coopera- avoid creating any impression of the hour, and after that back in the confer- With Mr. Shevardnadze's translator tion in Europe. Two plus four, he said, was just right. United States and the Soviets - with- ence hall, so that Mr. Baker could track standing between them, Mr. Baker, him down at any moment. reading from the paper written in his Shevardnadze Calls for Meeting This Year on German Unification By PAUL LEWIS cord in November. They should also be- reunification, saying it should not be "a gin further disarmament talks and The idea is that as East Europe Special to The New York political game of rapid chess with a breaks free from the Soviet Unión and OTTAWA, Feb. 15 - Foreign Minis- seek "to devise political approaches to five-minute time limit" for each move. the new trends in Europe,' he said. The the two Germanys coalesce, Europe ter- Eduard A. Shevardnadze of the He also called on Europeans, Amer- members are the 16 NATO nations, the needs a new-all-embracing security ar Soviet Union called today on the 35 na- icans and Canadians to voice their con- 7 Warsaw Pact nations and 12 neutral rangement based on a strengthening of tions taking part in an East-West con- cerns about German unification ference on security in Europe to begin countries. the Helsinki Final Act of 1975, by which through "a referendum" based on pub- "We think it is important to begin the 35 nations countries promised to re- working on a meeting later this year to lic opinion surveys that would measure spect existing frontiers and observe prepare for German unification. shaping a system of common Euro- popular anxiety. human rights. Addressing the External Affairs and pean spaces, including legal and hu- Defense Committees of the Canadian manitarian space,' he said. The phrase He made no mention of a greater This week, the British Foreign Secre- Parliament, Mr. Shevardnadze ac- he used, borrowed from French, is ap- Germany's role in NATO, which the tary, Douglas Hurd, said: "As the War- plied to the idea of a series of new pacts West insists on but Moscow has op- saw Pact disintegrates the East Euro- cepted German reunification as inevi- committing European nations to posed in the past. peans need somewhere to go. NATO table, but voiced unease at the pros- democracy, respect for existing fron- and the European Community are not use The New York Times to keep informed pect. He said Europe must move New Security Arrangement tiers and human rights. suitable, but a strengthened C.S.C.E. quickly to demilitarize itself and lock a seems right about the world of fashion. The Tuesday Fashion greater Germany into a new "Pan- The Soviet Foreign Minister' call The Soviet Foreign Minister stressed European" political structure for its for a meeting of the 35 nations in the se- Page features the newest international and The West German Foreign Minister, that German unification is occurring at own safety. STATE curity conference next winter to dis- Hans-Dietrich Genscher, called for the American fashions. On Sundays. there are Stvle a delicate moment in history, when the one doubts the right of Germans cuss a united Germany echoes an idea Soviet Union and Eastern Europe are creation of -European institutions to self-determination," Mr. Shevardna- many foreign ministers supported at to foster the coalescence of Europe Makers" and "Fashion" features covering going through profound change: talks here between NATO and the War- dze said. "But Germany's neighbors, within the framework,' in- everything from how to keep your wardrobe He warned against rushing German saw Pact this week. the European states, are entitled to cluding bodies to guarantee human guarantees that a united Germany, if rights, protect the environment and re- fresh and vital to an inside look at who's setting solve conflicts. trends in New York and around the world. and when it is established, will not be a threat to them, that it will not seek to revise European borders and that it Prague Says Soviet Pullout Starts Next Week A Proposalby Italy Women's apparel advertisers: For information, call your will not see a rebirth of Nazism and The Italian Foreign Minister, Gianni New York Times sales representative or Retail Fascism." De Michelis, circulated proposals at Advertising, (212) 556-1363. The Soviet. Foreign Minister admit- PRAGUE, Feb. 15 (AP) - The sources in Prague said this week that the meeting for a "second Helsinki ted that a new generation has come to Soviet Army will begin withdrawing June 1991 was a likely compromise Act" that would create a single Euro- power in Germany since World War II. from Czechoslovakia next week and an President Vaclav Havel said Tues- pean security system with provisions But, he asked: "Are there no new Nazis agreement on complete Soviet with- day he had received a letter from Mi- that would gradually become legally The New York Times today? Does not the Republican Party drawal from Hungary may come khail S. Gorbachev, the Soviet leader. binding on the nations that signed. enjoy some support today?" The far within a month, Czechoslovak and Hun- He hinted that it might help resolve the Under the Italian proposal all 35 na- right West German Republican Party garian officials said today. question of how soon all 73,500 Soviet tions in the security conference would has revived claims to Pomerania, Sile- Gen. Anton Slimak, the Czechoslovak soldiers in Czechoslovakia would leave. agree to respect each other's sover- sia and parts of East Prussia now in Chief of Staff, was quoted by the offi- In Budapest, a senior Hungarian offi- eignty and observe human rights. Poland and the Soviet Union. cial press agency C.T.K. as saying that clal was quoted as predicting an agree- Under this plan the East European the withdrawal would begin next week New Talks Proposed ment within a month on the departure countries would gradually move away in Bruntal, 160 miles east of Prague. of Soviet troops. from Moscow and closer to the 12 Euro- The 35 nations of the Conference of Czechoslovakia had sought total Magyar Nemzet, a Hungarian daily, pean Community nations, strengthen- Security and Cooperation in Europe, withdrawal by the end of this year, but quoted Ferenc Somogyi, Secretary of ing their economic ties with Western Mr. Shevardnadze said, should prepare General Slimak said that would not be State in the Foreign Ministry, as saying Europe and agreeing to accept the for German reunification by signing a accomplished. Moscow wants to keep that Hungary could "count on working jurisdiction of the European Human new conventional arms reduction ac- forces there until the end of 1991, and out the agreement within a month.' Rights Court in Strasbourg. Charles Krauthammer Kennan: Cold Realist Since roughly the time of the increased dealing dispassionately and without moral troop movements into Czechoslovakia in ism with the other side. As he put it bluntly 1968, Soviet political hegemony over the other in a 1985 antimoralist tract in Foreign Warsaw Pact countries has been slackening. Affairs, the primary obligation of foreign -- George Kennan, April 4, 1989 policy is to the interests of the national What is wrong with this sentence? Its society" and not its "moral impulses, main point is unexceptionable. If its author For Kennan, national Interest is all. Once were not George Kennan-ambassador, you understand Kennan's uncompromising statesman, historian, feted now (see the antisentimental realism, you then under cover of The Atlantic) as America's "Last stand why his moral vocabulary is 80 impov- Wise Man"-it would not warrant three erished. Why the most he can say about readings to make sure that our eyes do not apartheid is that "certain of the procedures deceive us. But there it ist in his testimony of the South African police have been no last week to the Senate Foreign Relations less odious to me than to many others Why Committee: "increased troop movements in- the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan was a to Czechoslovakia in 1968. mere "action" and a "mistake, Why the Increased troop movements? He means 1968 Czech invasion is now "increased troop the invasion of Czechoslovakia. The over- movements. throw of "socialism with a human face." The Kennan has been a consistent "realist" for crushing of the Prague Spring. The declara- 40 years. He believes that the United States tion of the Brezhnev Doctrine. The transfor ought not involve itself in any great anti-So- mation of Alexander Dubcek from social viet crusade. He believes that under Gorba- reformer into forest ranger. The beginning chev. He believed it under Brezhnev, He of two decades of unrelieved repression and believed it under Stalin, misery for Czechoslovakia. In 1947, a few weeks before publication "Increased troop movements?" This gro- of Kennan's famous Foreign Affairs article tesque euphemism is not a slip of the outlining containment, Truman declared tongue. It is not an oversight. It is a window American support for Greece and Turkey onto George Kennan's political philosophy. then under severe communist pressure. The window is important because, in this How did Kennan react to containment. in the season of Kennan's canonization, his practice? A few days before Truman' dra- philosophy is being conveniently distorted. matic address to Congress, Kennan was True, Kennan first enunciated the notion of shown a draft text. "To say that he found "containment," the overarching theory of objections to it is to put it mildly,' writes postwar American foreign policy. True, Joseph Jones, who drafted the Truman Doc. Kennan says that the Soviet Union "should trine speech. He was in favor of economic now be regarded essentially as another aid to Greece, but he had hoped that mill- great power, like other great powers." tary aid to Greece would be kept small, and True, as The New York Times summarized he was opposed to aid of any kind to: urkey his testimony, "The father of 'containment' It was nevertheless to the tone and ideologi says Russia is no longer a threat." cali content of the message, the portraying But it is not true that Kennan is an old of two opposing ways of life, and the open- Cold Warrior who has now renounced the end commitment to aid free peoples that he creed because of Gorbachev's benignity. As objected most." Kennan would be the first to say; he has There is a question now as to whether the never been a Cold Warrior. He was the Cold War is over, whether it is time to call author of containment, yes, but a very cool, off our ideological crusade against the Sovi- detached and abstract form of containment et Union. The question is a fair one, But it was. Kennan's answer, now so celebrated, is The essence of Kennan's political philoso- hardly news. Kennan was for calling it off in phy has always been that we should treat March 1947. the Soviet Union as a great power, looking Before you conscript Kennan to one side only to our national interest, not to anticom- or the other of today ideological debates, munist ideology, to guide us. Kennan was be clear who he is and who he was. He has acute in identifying the ideological origins of long thought that hard-liners, from Truman Soviet foreign policy. But he never lapsed on, distorted his notion of containment out into advocacy of a counter-ideological re- of all recognition. He does Indeed call for an sponse by the United States. end to containment, as generally (mis)un- Liberals, wanting to claim Kennan, may derstood. But that is not Kennan responding like to say that he was once a conservative. to Gorbachev. That is Kennan responding to Neither word really applies: Kennan was Kennan. He has been saying that for a very then, and remains now, the foremost Ameri- long time. As far back as that August 1968 can "realist," meaning a believer in Realpoli- day when the Soviets beefed up their troops tik, in foreign policy as power politics, in in Prague and before. Photo Copy Preservation