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Originally Processed With FOIA(s): FOIA Number: S FOIA MARKER This is not a textual record. This is used as an administrative marker by the George Bush Presidential Library Staff. Record Group/Collection: George H.W. Bush Presidential Records Collection/Office of Origin: Speechwriting, White House Office of Series: Snow, Tony, Files Subseries: Subject File, 1988-1993 OA/ID Number: 13893 Folder ID Number: 13893-012 Folder Title: Defense, [1990] Stack: Row: Section: Shelf: Position: G 18 29 2 1 REVIEW OF THE PATRIOT ATM HISTORY 1965 SAM-D project office formed 1st program manager Col B. R. Luczak. Requirement identified need for improved air defenses to replace Nike Hercules. Provide for high altitude air defense and anti- missile defense. 1966 Program authorized by SecDef; contract for concept definition awarded with Raytheon, Hughes, and RCA in competition. 2nd Program manager BG E. M. Dooley 1967-71 Advanced development contract that was to run until 1971. 3rd PM Col James Miller, Jr. First propulsion control tests in 1970. 1972-74 4th PM BG J. Fimiani. Program conducts engineering development. Successful DSARC and review by SecDef. Requirement for nuclear warhead deleted as a result of cost effectiveness analysis; anti-missile capability also deleted. 1974-76 5th PM MG C. F. Means, Jr. Program cycle delayed to conduct proof of principle tests of the "track-via-missile" guidance concept which is unique to the Raytheon design. Proof of principle test firings complete in 1976. 1977-80 6th PM MG Oliver D. Street, III. Decision to accelerate the program made in 1977. Engineering development re-initiated in 1977 - completed in 1978-79. Development tests/operational tests II conducted in 1980. DSARC III in 1980 approved continued low rate production based on Army prototype confirmation test program; follow-on evaluation to be conducted using production hardware. First production buy begins in 1980. 1981-83 7th PM BG Jerry M. Bunyard. Conducted prototype confirmation program successfully; received Army and OSD approval to proceed to production validation and verification follow-on test. Developed the Patriot Pre-Planned Product Improvement (P3I) Program, which included the software and hardware modifications to the radar and missile to develop anti-tactical missile (ATM) capabilities. Presented program to Army and OSD leadership and obtained approval of concept. Briefed Congressional staffs. USDDR&E (Wade) approved justification for major systems new start for anti missile program with Army as lead. First Patriot missile battalion (1/43d ARTY) activated at Fort Bliss, TX, May 1982. First European Battalion activated, 1983. Army leadership, at program manager's recommendation, directed one year development delay due to production quality problems. New manufacturing methods initiated for production validation. Initiated talks with Japan on procurement. Met with NATO project office leading to bi-lateral agreements with Germany and the Netherlands. Follow-on evaluation revealed unsatisfactory maintenance and support record. Army leadership directed a one-year European deployment delay and continued follow-on evaluation. 1983-85 8th PM BG Don Infante. Instituted new manufacturing methods and support concepts for follow-on evaluation and production validation and verification. Conducted readiness review for Undersecretary of Army and successfully passed follow on evaluation (FOE) III. Deployed first unit to U.S. forces in Germany in 1st quarter 1985. The Netherlands, in 1984, becomes first nation to buy Patriot, and plans for deployment of four fire units in its air defense sector. U.S.-German talks begin on the German Patriot program. "Patriot Self Defense Against Missile Attack" identified as a response to a newly developed JMSNS requirement -- to meet the threat posed by accurate SS-21/$$23 conventional missiles that could now target key military targets and SAM sites in deep attack scenarios. Beyond Patriot's active defense mission, this concept of operations, developed at Fort Leavenworth, also included passive defenses, counterforce, and battle management. Patriot ATM concept developed as a means to protect a 2KMx10KM footprint centered on the Patriot fire unit itself; modification would require (a) software changes to enhance guidance and radar surveillance -- to enable missile acquisition and tracking; and (b) hardware changes involving Patriot's fuze and warhead -- to improve its lethality. The Army's Patriot ATM improvements are funded in Army 063302A. OSD (DDR&E) reach the following conclusions regarding the Patriot upgrade. - Patriot will only have enough missiles to do the air defense mission and not the anti-missile mission. - Anti-missile concept is technically too difficult. - There is clearly a threat to Patriot. A $.5M $$21 can destroy a $120M SAM fire unit, so defense is needed. - Wouldn't the concept of anti-missile counter battery fire from the Patriot site make time efficient sense? - What is the Army plan and intention? 1985-86 9th PM Col Larry Capps. Japanese select Patriot to replaced Nike Hercules; subsequently select Mitsubishi Heavy to manufacture Patriot under licensed production. U.S. -German agreement approved -- a complex compensation package providing for production of Patriot components in Germany, provision of Patriots to Germany, German operation of U.S. owned Patriots, and German furnished short range air defense of key air bases in Germany. Germany buys 14 fire units, is provided 12 additional fire units to operate for the U.S. U.S. deployment to Germany planned ultimately to be 54 fire units. Army Secretariat commissions Bell Labs review of the ATM upgrades proposed by Raytheon. Initial draft of report is unfavorable -- cites urgent need for anti-missile defense, but questions Raytheon's analysis of the Soviet threat and possibility of unusual warheads. Report suggests that hit-to-kill (second antonymous seeker) technology demonstrated by SDIO/SDC Flage experiment is more pertinent. Bell Labs report is used by Senate Army Services Committee Staffer Toney Battista to delete funds requested by the Army to upgrade the program. Results in delay of a year. 3rd Quarter 1986 Patriot intercepts lance missile at White Sands Missile Range. Test proves PAC I software MODS work and "mission kill" capability of Patriot system under low rate attacks. Dutch informally inform the Army that they do not want the ATM upgrades for their Patriot systems given the politics of anti- missile systems. Patriot modifications divided into two packages: PAC I involves software upgrades; PAC II involves hardware upgrades. Plan developed to complete PAC I upgrades by 1988 and begin PAC II in 1991. Italians begin discussions on their acquisition of Patriot to replace Nike Herclues. PAC II concept expanded to provide "area" defense around the Patriot fire unit (vs self defense concept of earlier years). 1987-91 10th PM Col Bruce Garnett. Patriot production plan and multi-year procurement of Patriot missiles continue. Italians decide to procure Patriot. SDIO provides funds for Patriot Dual Mode Seeker experiment in 1989-90 and remote launch experiment in 1990-91. Deputy Secretary of Defense appoints Director of Strategic Defense Initiative Organization as the DoD Central Manager for all anti missile programs -- including Patriot modifications -- beginning FY 1991. SDIO provides FY 91 funds for Dual Mode Seeker tests and identifies FYDP Research & Development and Procurement funds for Patriot anti missile components. Iraq attacks Kuwait; U.S. response in August (Desert Shield) leads to decision by Col Garnett to accelerate PAC II missile production. Action changes original plan of providing 3 missiles for test in January 1991 to significant capability in November 1990. STATE OFFICE OF THE ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF DEFENSE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20301-1400 STATE PUBLIC AFFAIRS DATE: 26 Sept 1990 THIS PAGE PLUS 3 PAGE(S) FOLLOW TO: NAME: Dan mc Groarty FROM: Jeff Salmon ROOM: LOCATION: White HOUSE LOCATION Pentagon DIVISION DIVISION DES/PA EXTENSION EXTENSION 697-8191 IF TOTAL NUMBER OF PAGES ARE NOT RECEIVED OR ARE ILLEGIBLE, PLEASE CALL (202) 697-5007 OR 695-6993. 100 PAGE. SEP 27 '90 11:38 FROM 2026951149 Headlener Breakfast 4 Cheney Foy 456-6218 The President belongs to what I like to describe as the "don't screw around" school of military strategy. That if you're going to send American forces in harm's way, you better assume that they may well in fact become involved in conflict, and it's incumbent upon those of us who send them to make absolutely certain that they've got all the support and all the numbers and all the equipment and all the supplies and munitions they need to deal with any eventuality. Until we've reached that point, until we're absolutely confident that we do indeed have that kind of capability in the area, we have no desire whatsoever to stop the deployments, no matter what some of our expert friends around Washington or on CNN may think the target should be. The House yesterday finished the House Authorization Bill for fiscal year 1991. Let me say just a word about that if I can. The most damaging part of the bill is the fact that it was a bad piece of legislation when it came out of committee; it did not reflect at all any kind of long term concern for where we ought to be headed with respect to military force; and they made a token gesture yesterday when they finally approved the bill by adding $1 billion for Desert Shield for fiscal year 1991. That's less than what it would cost us to operate per month - assuming there are no hostilities. It's a totally inadequate piece of legislation. My friend, Les Aspin, will argue that this is the first piece of legislation that reflect the new post-war world, I believe is the way he described it. If Les Aspin had been making those decisions 10 or 15 years ago, we wouldn't be able to do today what we're doing in the Persian Gulf. The bottom line of the bill as it came out of committee, and as the Democrats passed it through the House yesterday, is that it cuts upwards of 130,000 U.S. military personnel in the next 12 months. I'm being told at the same time that we have to maintain our forward deployments in key places around the world, take care of the problem in the Middle East, set up a rotation base so that about a six month tour becomes the norm over there, and oh by the way, get rid of 130,000 active duty military personnel. It totally fails to recognize that that kind of harsh action which would require me to run a reduction in force, not just to handle it through attrition and through careful management of the personnel system, it requires me to go out and RIF people, fire them. You might remember that everybody wearing the uniform today is a volunteer. There isn't anybody out there who wants to get out of the service. We've got thousands and thousands of reservists trying to get in, and who are banging on the doors to be called to active duty so they can have an opportunity to serve at a time of national need. If we have to live with that piece of legislation, which we won't-- I'm convinced the President will veto it if it lands on his desk in that form - but if we had to live with that kind of legislation, it would make it absolutely impossible for us to do our job. The claim that Les made yesterday that somehow this bill reflects the new post-war world is just garbage. It's not true, it's not valid, and I would urge everybody to take a very careful look at it. With respect to the strategic programs in the first part of the bill, it's easy now for everybody to say because things have gotten better with the Soviets we don't need strategic systems any more, we don't need SDI. That's dead wrong. The fact is that while there are significantly improved relations with the Soviets, and while we do indeed see them pulling their troops out of Eastern Europe, and while we do see cuts in the Soviet defense budget and a reconfiguration of their own forces, the one thing they have not stopped is their strategic buildup. They continue to build new, modern, strategic systems. We built one ballistic missile submarine last year, they built two. We built 12 ballistic missiles last year, they built 140. They are deploying two new mobile missiles, 200 PAGGE 202665119 FROM 88:11 06. 22 SEP 5 we aren't deploying any. The notion that somehow because relations have improved and we no longer have to be as concerned about the Warsaw Pact as we once were, there are now democratically elected regimes in most of those countries, we do have to be concerned about Soviet strategic capability. On SDI, the arguments, I think the rationale for strategic defense are more important than they've ever been, for several reasons. One, of course, is that the Soviets do continue to improve their overall strategic posture with new and improved systems. Secondly, because we've got no capability today to defend against a Soviet attack. All we can do is obliterate the Soviet Union. But if we look at the situation we're faced with in the Middle East you see another very strong rationale of the central force strategic defenses. Right now, today, with 150,000 plus troops in Saudi Arabia, are facing in Iraq several hundred Scud missiles and Scud variants. The Scud is a Soviet system, about a 300 kilometer range, not very accurate. As a military weapon armed with a conventional warhead it's not of any great concern. It might be able to hit a city, but it's very hard for them to hit a military unit that would have any significant military impact. But if you marry that capability up with chemical weapons, you've got a whole different proposition. Certainly it's an instrument of terror. If you marry it up with the biological and nuclear capabilities, then, of course, the picture begins to be radically different than what it's been in the past. In addition, Saddam Hussein has taken the Scud and built two variants from it, sort of home-grown vehicles that have smaller payloads but a long range, so he can probably reach out maybe 550-600 kilometers with those systems. He's not going to hit the United States from Baghdad with that kind of equipment, but he can certainly target U.S. forces and U.S. friends and allies in the region. He isn't the only one who has or is developing that kind of capability. We estimate by the end of the decade there will be at least 15 Third World nations with ballistic missile capability. Even though most of that is likely to be short range or intermediate range stuff, the fact is today we've got virtually no capability to defend against that kind of attack none, zero, zip. Anybody who tells you to the contrary doesn't know what he's talking about. That portion of the defense budget, that program under which the capability to deal with that kind of threat is to be found, is SDI -- the Strategic Defense Initiative. That's where we deal with that kind of ballistic missile capability. For the House of Representatives, for my friend Les Aspin, and I won't say the House, I'll say the majority in the House yesterday to take the action they did on SDI in my mind is absolutely incomprehensible. I don't see how at a time when you've got U.S. forces open to that kind of threat and no capability to deal with it, we would want to cut that part of the defense budget that would give us that kind of capability long term. This notion that somehow the new, more peaceful world means we can dramatically alter the defense budget I think is wrong. I think over four, five, or six years we can in fact reduce our forces. We aren't going to need to be prepared to maintain the troop levels in Europe we have for so many years, and that's been a major driver in terms of our defense budget. Although we do want to stay active in Europe we can draw down some of our forces in the Pacific and we're doing that. But we do need to be able to retain our strategic capabilities. We do need to be able to maintain our forward deployment and be able to retain the forces here at home to reinforce overseas when we need it. 800 PAGE 202695119 FROM 68:11 06. 22 SEP 6 While it is a time for us, I think, to talk about new strategy and the need to respond with new thinking, if you will, about the way we deal with military capabilities, there are a couple of absolutely crucial, what I call enduring realities, that are still going to be valid in the future just as they have in the past. First and foremost is that peace and stability in the world, more likely than not, will depend upon the military capability of the United States of America. We're going to need robust military forces and be able to deploy them when necessary. We aren't going to have a dog in every fight and we aren't going to want to be in every fight. But when our fundamental interests are threatened, we have to be able to respond. Secondly, our most important military asset, the thing that counts for more than anything else, the thing that's absolutely crucial in terms of maintaining that kind of capability and being able to use it in the future is in fact the willingness of a great many Americans to put on the uniform and to serve in the United States military, to go in harm's way to defend. The bill that the House passed yesterday is totally inadequate in those respects, and I'm fairly confident that (END) SEP 27 '90 11:40 FROM 2026951149 02. 15. 91 04:00 PM *SDIO EXTRNL AFFAIRS P01 SEAL THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE STRATEGIC DEFENSE INITIATIVE ORGANIZATION PRESENCE MOLICATIVE WASHINGTON DC 2030 19:05:05 AMERICA THE OF OR PEPENSE FAX: (703) 693-1706 PHONE: (703) 695-8743 DATE: 2/15 TO: Dean McGrorty FACSIMILIE PHONE NUMBER: 202-2156-6218 CONFIRMATION PHONE NUMBER: 456-2773 2 COPIES (INCLUDING HEADER) : SDIO POINT OF CONTACT (POC) : Tom Johnson SDIO PHONE NUMBER (POC) : 703-695-8743 REMARKS: 02 15. 91 04:00 PM *SDIO EXTRNL AFFAIRS P02 TALKING POINTS ON GPALS President Bush, State of Union Address: -- directs SDI to provide protection against limited ballistic missile strikes. -- such a defense can protect the United States, U.S. forces deployed overseas, U.S. power projection forces, U.S. friends and allies. This system is called GPALS -- Global Protection Against Limited Strikes GPALS is a layered defense concept. -- Space- and surface-based sensors to provide global, continuous surveillance and tracking, from launch to intercept or impact, of ballistic missiles of all ranges. (Studies show use of space sensors allow for reduction in the size, cost and number of surface-based sensors and weapons, while increasing performance.) - Interceptors, based both in space and on the ground or at sea, provide high-confidence protection to targets under attack. -- Space based interceptors could provide continuous, global interdiction capability against missiles with ranges in excess of 600-800 kilometers. -- Surface based interceptors, located in the U.S., deployed with U.S. forces and, potentially deployed by U.S. allies, could intercept missiles of any range and with any type of wahead. -- Interceptors would destroy attacking missiles simply by colliding with them at great speeds. Strategic Defenses will be affordable; less costly than Phase One, even with the added Theater Missile Defense element. GPALS directly addresses security issues that exist today and will become more acute in the future. As a result of refocusing the SDI program toward GPALS, the priority assigned to theater defense programs already under- way has been significantly increased. -- Iraqi use of ballistic missiles against Coalition Forces and Israel in the Middle East highlights the requirement for theater missile defenses as an essential element in our military posture. A14 SDI 3/30/89 REVIEW & OUTLOOK Brilliant Pebbles As public policy, strategic defense SDI scientists were working. As origi- has begun to resemble one of those gi- nally conceived, SDI's space-based in- ant beach balls that kids play with in terceptors were going to be huge and swimming pools. No matter how expensive. But Brilliant Pebbles has much the critics want to submerge it, emerged from America's genius for sit on it or kick it to the bottom, SDI miniaturization and computerization. (always has enough buoyancy to rise Just as the size and cost of computers back to the surface. have fallen dramatically, the same Secretary of Defense Richard advances may make it possible to Cheney himself made the TV-talk- shrink the size and cost of "smart"- show rounds this week saying both that is, computerized-interceptors. that SDI had been "oversold" and Brilliant Pebbles would of course that he remains a "strong advocate" be only a partial defense-not the of some form of space-based defense. "perfect umbrella" that President Perhaps he's already been briefed on Reagan liked to talk about. But even Brilliant Pebbles," the latest SDI such a partial defense would have en- Itechnology to bob up despite Estab- ormous benefits. Since it would circle lishment skepticism. Lieutenant Gen- the globe, it would protect allies in eral George Monahan, the new head Europe and Asia as well as the main- of the Pentagon's SDI office, said last land U.S. It would make sure a de- week that Brilliant Pebbles has "ex- fense is in place if nuclear or chemi- cellent potential" to reduce costs. And cal missiles are developed by adven- Vice President Dan Quayle last week turesome small powers like Gadhafi's extolled the concept as. "one of the Libya. It also would make nuclear most promising lines of research" war much less likely by complicating into strategic defense. the task of a Soviet planner contem- The current Brilliant Pebbles en- plating a first strike. How could he be thusiasm was kicked off by Lieutenant sure, in a world of Brilliant Pebbles, General James Abrahamson's fare; that he'd hit his targets? well memo summing up his tenure as head of the SDI office. He focused on General Abrahamson's price tag of Brilliant Pebbles as the route to "both $5 billion a year for five years is not improved performance and dramatic only light years less than the billions cost reduction. With continued ef- and trillions that the skeptics charged forts, he wrote, a Brilliant Pebbles any strategic defense would cost, but concept "can be proven in two years, also is competitive with other strate- with deployment starting three years gic alternatives Washington currently later. This could be accomplished for is debating how to spend tens of bil- less than $10 billion. Throwing in the lions to deploy a new "survivable" costs of command and control and land-based nuclear missile-the mo- fail-safe communications, General bile MX or Midgetman. But as Gen- Abrahamson figures the whole thing eral Abrahamson points out, Brilliant could be deployed for $25 billion over Pebbles has the potential to enhance five years. deterrence just as much, just as Brilliant Pebbles would consist of quickly, and perhaps for less money several thousand small interceptor than either new missile, let alone the satellites based in space, floating sep- cost of both. arately in several different orbits. Brilliant Pebbles plays to Ameri- They would be inert until activated by ca's competitive strengths-technol- a command sent from earth upon ogy in optics, small computers, guid- warning of Soviet or other attack. ance systems-instead of trying to Each interceptor would have its own match the Soviets at what they do "eyes" to be able to track the rocket best-rolling out missile after missile plume of a ballistic missile, and when without fear of lawsuits from environ- activated would head for the nearest mentalists or peaceniks. The emer- missile and ram it at high speed, de- gence of SO feasible a concept SO stroying it with the simple force of quickly vindicates Ronald Reagan's impact. judgment in launching the SDI pro- It all sounds like sci-fi fantasy, but gram. He understood that science ad- of course SO did the idea of the U.S. vances in ways we don't expect, that putting a man on the moon or building answers would be forthcoming if we something called the Space Shuttle. unleashed U.S. scientists on defense. The striking thing about Brilliant Peb- Mr. Reagan's contribution was bles is how much progress already moral-releasing those pent-up ener- has been made. While the Luddites gies by destroying the perverted no- ere saying it couldn't be done, Low- tion that defense against nuclear at- Photocopy-Preservation August 14, 1990 WHAT THE DEMOCRATS HAVE DONE TO DISMANTLE OUR NATIONAL SECURITY: -Throughout the last decade, the Democratic Congress has repeatedly tried to kill the: 1. MX 2. Midgetman 3. B-2 4. SDI (25% cuts every year) -Specifically re. FY '91, the House Armed Services Committee recently voted to: 1. Cut over $24 billion from the Presidents Defense budget for FY '91. 2. Kill the MX and Midgetman 3. Kill the B-2 ("stealth") bomber 4. Reduce SDI budget from President's request of $4.6 billion to $2.9 billion (a cut of $1.7 billion) -Meanwhile, the Senate has already: 1. Voted to cut SDI to $3.6 billion, and to effectively kill the "brilliant pebbles" program with an allotment of $129 million. 2. Approved the Bingaman/Shelby Amendment which would place 11 line items in the SDI budget, and effectively eliminate the President's ability to ever deploy SDI. -KEY POINTS HERE: 1. The President is committed to SDI, and his choice of Henry Cooper to head SDI has been widely praised in the defense community as a signal of his commitment. 2. The President is working towards an historic START treaty with the Soviets, a treaty which assumes the future development of MX, Midgetman, B-2, and SDI. These reckless Democratic cuts will render a START treaty useless, and even harmful to our security interests. For example, - the Soviets would have two mobile missile programs (as per the treaty) and we would have NONE. -the Start treaty favors strategic bombers, but B-2 is our strategic bomber. -CONCLUSION: THE DEMOCRATS HAVEN'T CHANGED. THEY STILL WANT RECKLESS DEFENSE CUTS, THEY STILL WANT TO SACRIFICE THE NATIONAL SECURITY OF THE UNITED STATES. WE SAID NO BEFORE, AND WE'LL SAY NO AGAIN. PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH BROUGHT AN END TO THE COLD WAR, AND FREEDOM TO NICARAGUA AND PANAMA. NOW IS THE TIME TO CAPITALIZE ON HARD EARNED FREEDOM. THE ISSUE WAS NOT THE COLD WAR; THE ISSUE WAS, AND STILL IS, OUR NATIONAL SECURITY. JOURNAL WEDNESDAY, MARCH 15, 1989 Serious Talk About the Nuclear Era By AARON WILDAVSKY who is burying their brains? it is no less true now than then. Mr. Bruce-Briggs would allow those From the paradox that defenselessness Both a history and a lament, B. Bruce- who think life would not be livable after a decreases the probability of attack came Briggs's "The Shield of Faith: The Hidden nuclear attack to expose themselves to nu- the corresponding wisdom that defensive Struggle for Strategic Defense" (Simon & clear peril. "But what was ugly-and is measures only breed more dangerous Schuster, 464 pages, $19.95) is a moving ugly," he writes in his usual vigorous ver- countermeasures to nullify them. "Don't and enlightening history of nuclear de- nacular, "is the agitation to prevent others avoid dark streets at night," as Mr. Bruce- fense, poignantly capturing the dismay of from making the other choice, to live and Briggs summarizes it, "because that will those individuals whose lives became to recover." make the muggers operate in the day- bound up in a largely losing effort to per- The most serious objection to civil de- light." suade their fellow citizens to take defense fense was that the greater the belief in the There is, to be sure, an interactive rela- seriously. probability of limiting damage, the greater tionship between offense and defense. Cal- The Strategic Defense Initiative, the au- the willingness to contemplate using nu- culations about the "cost-exchange" ratio thor persuades us, can be understood only clear weapons. For many, the very thought go on all the time. It is hopeless, however in the context of the past efforts to reduce of defense was pernicious because it in- to give up defense, if for no other reason the death and damage as well as the likeli- creased the chances of initiating nuclear than the need to defend the deterrent, our hood of nuclear war. own missiles. Never a dry theorist or a dull geo-strat- egist, Mr. Bruce-Briggs dwells at the inter- Bookshelf The -distinction of "The Shield of Faith," whose very title bespeaks dark hu- section of the personal and the strategic. mor (practical people presumably want For example, he notes that Americans "The Shield of Faith: something stronger), lies in its fidelity to don't like suicide missions. When an engi- The Hidden Struggle the spirit of defense. Had the author ex- neer suggested that air interceptors be for Strategic Defense" punged a few of his less charitable com- used as rammers, their strong wings cut- ments about the individuals involved, his ting off weak bomber tails, for instance, his technologically feasible idea was re- By B. Bruce-Briggs book would gain greater credence. Even so, the people and the pathos of defense jected because it reminded the airmen of kamikaze attacks on our B29s. In fact, the war behind a falsely conceived protective come together in a kind of celebration of a Navy became a leader in air defense be- shield. This is how vulnerability was trans- cause worthy enough to justify all the per- formed into security. sonal pain. cause it was troubled in late 1944 by sui- cide planes chock full of bombs, fuel and Who can remember today, as the author The fact that every serious strategist- guidance systems, perhaps the first cruise usefully reminds us, that in the 1950s lib- such as Bernard Brodie, who argued that missiles. Long-range bombers owe their eral Democrats endorsed civil defense, sa- nuclear offense rendered nuclear defense voring especially its potential for national obsolete-kept qualifying his argument, rapid development to the Air Force's un- planning, while conservative Republicans suggests that the need for defense will al- willingness to send its crews out on one- way missions. rejected a program of dispersal on the ways be with us. Should nuclear weapons grounds that government would be telling be reduced to very low numbers, as is now Mr. Bruce-Briggs also is something of a industry where to go and individuals where contemplated, however, interest in defense keeper of lost causes, such as civil defense, to live. Nor did opponents ever make clear will grow, paradoxically, for it will become just because they are right. whether the difficulty was that civil de- both more feasible (fewer weapons to de- / Civil defense was destroyed by ridicule. fense was ineffective or provocative. Now- fend against) and more necessary (cheat- AWho the joke was on we will learn only adays President Kennedy's somber caution ing becomes more important) if we are to much later.) It was said that civil defense circa 1962-"Civil defense can readily be rely for our lives and liberties on more was ostrichlike: Climbing into holes would justified-as insurance. we trust will than on-sight inspection and faith. not make nuclear war go away. Yet Mr. never be needed-but insurance which we Bruce-Briggs reminds us that the chilling could never forgive ourselves for forgoing Mr. Wildavsky is professor of political question-What happens if deterrence in the event of catastrophe"-would ap- science and public policy at the University fails?-still has no answer. In that case, pear not only ludicrous but offensive. Yet of California, Berkeley. Photocopy-Preservation deputy defense secretary, hopes to replace Alton G. Keel as U.S. am- bassador to NATO. Former defense secretaries Caspar W Weinberger and Frank C. Carlucci are backing Taft for the ambassadorship. Paul D. Wolfowitz, former arms control executive and ambassador. to Indonesia, is expected to become undersecretary for policy officials said. Although Wolfowitz, who was slated to fill the same post for Tow- er already is playing the leading role in the Pentagon's review of future strategic forces, this nomination to the policy post has not been made. Pentagon spokesman Dan How- ard who came to the post from the white House and served ved under Car- lucci, might have kept the position if If T ower had been confirmed. But Howard is now looking for an am- 3/20/89 White brow to House dates his brien Seeks to Show Progress at Pentagon chief generate money for the Nicaraguan contrast Be Cheney congressional press secretary, Williams, has taken over an an office in the Pentagon pub- lic affairs enclave in janticipat of Pentagon's the out spokesman, The Bush administra- tion has approved the selection of Williams, officials said Stephen E: Herbits, executive becoming vice presidentic of Seagram Co. Ltd and former assis ant to former de- fense secretary Donald H. Rums feld will be an adviser to Cheney a long ingtime friend Cheney choices for deputies eave the futures of many Reagan administration stalwarts at the Pen- tagon in doubt st. William H. Taft Taft IV, who has been at the Pen Pentagon since the start of behind (-598 as David Addington, who worked with/Cheney Republican coun- sel to the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence and as a White House legislative ant assistant. is role defense major new play the as to often filled by a high-ranking mil- Policy Committee worked closely the Pentagon's top lawver George Van Cleve, minority counsel when gated the Reagan administ ation's the Reagan-administration first as bassadorship or other government genera counsel and since 1984 as post outside the Pentagon. retary's special assistant, a post, David J. Gribbin, wholas executive director of the House Republican with Cheney when the Wyoming Re- publican was minority whip, is slated to become the Pentagon s new chief to name to intends expected scenes itar ry officer. Lcongréssional liaison. also Cheney Cheney was ranking Republican on the House committee that investi covert efforts to sell arms to Iran to (the By George C Wilson Washington Post President Bush plans to lead the ceremonial swearing-in of Defense Secretary Dick Cheney in the Pen tagon courtyard Tyesday afternoon in what administration officials said yesterday is an effort to to project the image of a Defense Department getting up to full steam after being leaderless for nearly two months as the White House fought for and lost the nomination of former senator John G. Tower (R-Tex.) to be de- fense secretary. Rather than for this formal- ity... Cheney, who was officially sworn in Friday has moved.quickly to fill key Pentagon posts with sev- eral of his associates from the House. However. administration officials said he intends to keep General Motors executive Donald Atwood Jr. as top deputy A14 REVIEW & OUTLOOK The FSX Flap What on earth can the Japanese be tangled system of defense procure- complaining about? Sure, U.S. Com- ment and congressional micromana- merce Secretary Robert Mosbacher is gement, the ATF will require 15 years trying to scuttle the FSX deal the Jap- to develop, compared with just over anese made with the U.S. Defense De- three years for the F-84 of 30 years partment. But on the other hand, EPA ago. It is of course far more complex, Administrator William K. Reilly but there are other problems. U.S. in- wants to force Americans to buy more dustry is under more and more pres- Japanese cars, judging from his ef- sure from the Pentagon to risk its own forts to persuade the Department of money on development, with the re- Transportation to raise U.S. fleet sult that some contractors are walk- mileage standards. ing away. The waste, fraud and Maybe what the Japanese are com- abuse" witch hunt in Washington has plaining about is the confusion. Maybe brought a wave of suspensions and de- Americans should complain too. barments of contractors for minor The FSX flap, which Congress will contract violations. No wonder U.S. be revving up again when it returns defense contractors find it more at- from Easter vacation this week, is il- tractive to work for the Israelis or the lustrative of a new U.S. inability to Japanese than for their own govern- make coherent policy. ment. Maybe Secretary Mosbacher Up until the FSX became a cause and Senator Heinz should ask why. celebre in Washington, it didn't seem But back to the Japanese. Cer- especially remarkable. Joint ventures tainly, with all the dollars accumu- between U.S. defense contractors and lated through their insistence on run- other allies in weapons development ning big trade surpluses, they could have become routine. When the Japa- Photocopy-Preservation have afforded F-16s. That would meet nese suggested that they would like to their defense needs and help bring build a fighter, the Pentagon first trade and capital flows into better bal tried to persuade them to buy F 16s. ance. In some sense, they brought this Failing that, it agreed to let General latest congressional dust-up on them- Dynamics share F-16 technology with selves. While Japan is a sovereign na Mitsubishi in the joint development of tion and entitled to serve its own the FSX. Had it not done so, the Japa- needs, it isn't in its own best interests nese easily could have signed up with to stir up political resentments in the the British or French U.S., a country it is heavily dependent Moreover, the F-16 is a 20-year-old upon for both trade and defense. design. The U.S. currently is develop- ing the Advanced Tactical Fighter The Japanese could go a long way (ATF), which is on a higher techno- toward taking some of the heat off by logical plateau, making more sophisti- making a firm commitment to buy cated use of electronic tracking, àim- other U.S. equipment to meet U.S. re- ing and countermeasures and compu- quests that it make a greater effort to terized avionics and flight control. defend against the buildup of Soviet Do the Japanese want to use this military power in the Pacific and project to develop a commercial air- Asian coastal waters. It would be liner? Probably. But if Boeing is going timely, for example, to announce a to lose its world-wide dominance, it firm commitment for the eight or SO will be mostly Boeing's fault, not the AWACS and 17 or so in-flight-refueling fault of the FSX deal. Nothing will tankers they have discussed with the protect the U.S. from industrial de- U.S. for years. The FSX won't be op- cline-something that is by no means erational for 10 years and judging imminent-if it throws up protective from the trouble the French and Is- walls and clings to obsolete technol- raelis have had with new fighters, ogy rather than employing its innova- maybe not then. The AWACS-tanker tive skills. No country in the world, in- deal, at upward of $5 billion, would cluding Japan, comes close to U.S. ca- help relieve American doubts that the pacity for innovation. The "industrial, Japanese are interested in two-way policy" of the Japanese is no match trade. for the decentralized research and dé- But U.S. policy makers also would velopment and entrepreneurial activ- profit from self-examination. One ity that thrive in the U.S. question is whether the Secretary of There are, however, problems in Commerce and Congress are running the U.S. defense industry, where this U.S. defense policy or whether that country comes closest to having an job still is in the hands of the Presi- industrial policy. Under the current dent and Secretary of Defense. A12 WEDNESDAY, APRIL 5, 1989 THE WASHINGTON POST Cheney Believes Gorbachev Sincere But Defense Chief Says Cutting West's Forces Would Be Premature By George C. Wilson partly because Gorbachev appears Turning to key deputies who will Washington Post Staff Writer "serious" about spending less mon- help him run the Defense Depart- ey on the military. ment, Cheney virtually confirmed Defense Secretary Dick Cheney, Questions that need to be an- Tuesday's Washington Post report declaring that he has gone from swered before the Cold War can be that his choices for civilian service skeptic to believer in the idea that declared over, Cheney added, in- secretaries are Assistant Defense Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev clude what will happen to the Soviet Secretary Richard L. Armitage for wants to reform his country, said forces to be withdrawn from East- the Army, Navy Undersecretary H. yesterday that the prospect of war ern Europe, how much the Warsaw Lawrence Garrett III for the Navy between the two superpowers has Pact military budget will be cut and and Donald B. Rice, head of the "receded somewhat." how much warning the West can ex- Rand Corp., for the Air Force. "I'm Cheney, who had a hawkish vot- pect if relations between the two not allowed to make announce- ing record in the House, said Gor- superpowers suddenly cool. ments of presidential appoint- bachev appears to be genuinely. "It's risky business for us to make ments," Cheney said, but he added committed to restructuring the So- basic, fundamental changes in our that the report was based on good viet Union in ways that lessen the own posture" until those and other sources.' threat to the West but said it is still questions, such as "Mr. Gorba Cheney, 48, has been criticized, too early for the United States to chev's tenure," are answered. sometimes in letters on editorial reduce military forces in Europe or "I started out as a real skeptic, pages, for obtaining draft defer- elsewhere frankly, about Mr. Gorbachey," the ments during the Vietnam war but Cheney said that in frequent former Republican representative telling the Senate Armed Services meetings of the National Security from Wyoming said. Committee during his confirmation Council the Bush administration is "Having watched over the last hearing that he would have been focusing on the Gorbachev initia- few years, having visited the Soviet glad to serve if called Cheney said tives and how to respond to them. Union and [having] visited with him that when he was between 8 and He said the conclusions from these on a couple of occasions and 26 there were periods when he was sessions will shape future U.S. stra- watched this process unfold-sit- eligible to be drafted but had ob tegic forces and overseas troop de- ting in my office last week with the tained student and marriage/defer- ployments. Soviet ambassador discussing the ments from the draft for most of "At the heart" of this administra election returns in the Soviet the period because "I had other pri- tion review, he said, are: "How Union, something I never really orities in the '60s than military ser- Smuch of a threat the Soviet Union anticipated having the opportunity vice. presents to the West. How has it to do-I've become a believer in "I don't regret the decisions I [the threat] changed? What circum- the notion that Gorbachev wants made. I complied fully with all the stances could lead us to believe that fundamentally to reform Soviet so- requirements of the statutes, reg- we could reduce our level of vigi- ciety economically. istered with the draft when I turned lance?" "In order to achieve economic 18. Had I been drafted, I would Asked during an interview with change," Cheney said, "he's also have been happy to serve. I think four reporters whether the Cold going to have to push certain polit- those who did in fact serve deserve War is over, Cheney replied, "Clear- ical reforms, i.e. elections. How all to be honored for their service "ly, the prospects of conflict between that translates into an altered mil- Was it a noble cause? Yes, indeed, I the United States and Soviet Union itary posture is still an open ques- think it was," he said of U.S. par- appear to have receded somewhat," tion." ticipation in the conflict. Photocopy-Preservation Western military experts have long dei bated whether specially trained Soviet Op erational Maneuver Groups exist. There has been evidence of special, large scale training exercises in East Germany, but analysts weren't sure what they meant 3/14/89 Mr. Karber said such groups were part of NATO worst case nightmare Soviets Outline namely that tank heavy Soviet units would have the power to quickly exploit NATO weaknesses in northern Germany and punch through to the Rhine River, splitting Troop-Cut Plan NATO forces, He believes the Soviet plan was then to encircle and annihilate more powerful U.S. Army units, concentrated In East Germany mostly in southern Germany. He said Soviet officials have identified a fifth Operational Maneuver Group in Units Designed to Spearhead Czechoslovakia, which they say they will remove and disband NATO Attack to Leave Mr. Karber said that Maj Gen. G. Ba tenin, a top military adviser to the Com- Aides Tell: a U.S. Adviser munist Party Central Committee, and other Soviet officials sald the remaining Soviet army units in Eastern Europe will By JOHN J. FIALKA be reconfigured into new. lighter units Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL Soviet tank divisions, which have 328 WASHINGTON-The Soviet Union says tanks, will be trimmed to 260 tanks. Motor- it: plans to remove from East, Germany ized rifle divisions, which have 270 tanks, four crack army divisions that had been will be restructured into new defensive specially prepared to spearhead a possible divisions with 160 tanks and an increased attack on the West, according to one of the number bf light anti tank weapons. Infan- West's leading experts on conventional ar- maments. try units based in the Soviet Union, which C currently have 270 tanks, will be converted Phillip A. Karber, a senior vice presi- into experimental "machine gun artillery dent of Washington-based BDM Corp., said divisions; which will have about 40 tanks the divisions-called. Operational Maneu- and be trained to fight defensive battles ver Groups-had been given special train from fortified positions; Mr. Karber said. ing, the best commanders, elite troops and Because of their capacity, to project of extra tanks. But he said they now will be fensive power quickly OR the ground, tanks disbanded and their modern tanks will be have been the measure of aggressive Inten converted to construction. cranes and log tions in Central Europe: Mr. Karber said removal machinery. among other uses. that Sovlet officials have told him that the He plans to tell the House Armed Serv 000 tanks coming out of Central Europe Ices Committee today that, if the Soviets are the Soviet Union's newest tanks, so follow their pledge; and if North Atlantic they will be converted to peaceful uses: He Treaty Organization forces remain the said 000 older Soviet tanks/most of them same; the threat of a surprise attack on based in the Soviety Union, will be de the West has been taken away stroyed or Asked about Mr. Karber's comments, Mr. Karber said the Soviet promises State Department official said he believed lend credibility to Moscow's campaign to this was the first time the Soviets have bush for military cuts from the West acknowledged that they have Operational What they're talking about is a whole re Maneuver Groups, In effect, they've ack- versal of the structure of military competi nowledged what we've said all along the tion that drove the Cold War Whe said official said. They have this offensive ca He also said the Soviet leadership S it pability and it' far beyond what they d longer termi goals for the year 2000 call for need for defensive purposes a nuclear weapons free Europe and for the (If Mr Karber is one of the Pentagon's top removal of -Soviet military. forces from outside advisers on conventional arma- Eastern Bloc countries, with the exception ment and a well known hawk on NATO of small command and control and logis strategy. He said he was taken aside by tics units that would be needed in a mili- Soviet officials during a recent trip to Mos tary emergency. COW: While other members of aigroup of The Soviet Navy, he added, is weighing touring Western military analysts were the possibility of removing as many as 50 taken on a trip on a Soviet Navy cruiser, attack submarines from service, as a ges: Mr. Karber said he was invited to a series ture to begin bargaining with an eye to of meetings with Soviet officials who gave ward reducing the U.S. carrier fleet, him detailed answers to his questions about a pledge Soviet leader Mikhail Gor- bachev made in December to trim the So- viet army by 500,000 men and :10,000 tanks. "If the Soviets had asked me to come in and design the cuts SO that they would take away the disproportionate. (Soviet) threat in Central Europe, I couldn't have done it better-and can't believe I'm, saying that, Mr. Karber said in an interview. The Soviet proposals, he noted, appear to be part of a master plan that backs up Mr. Gorbachev's propaganda campaign. the Already that campaign is causing a signifi- Photocopy-Preservation The FY 1991 Department of Defense Budget STATEMENT OF DEFENSE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA Myths and Reality The FY 1991 Department of Defense Budget STATEMENT OF DEFENSE T UNITED STATES OF AMERICA Myths and Reality Percent Real Growth in Defense Budget Authority Ö Is most of the DoD Budget allocated to expensive hardware and sophisticated weapons? 7.5 6.5 A: No. Almost 50 percent (47.2%) of the proposed FY 1991 budget would go to military and 5 civilian personnel and their related costs, including training and medical costs. Cumulative Real Growth 1985 - 95 equals -22 percent 2.5 Another 12 percent is allocated to the operations and maintenance accounts for the purchase of fuel and for the maintenance and 0 repair of equipment and facilities. -1.3 The proposed funding for investment, which -2.5 -2.1 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.6 totals 40.7 percent of the FY 1991 budget, -2.7 includes military contruction and family -3.8 housing and; Research, Development, Test and -5 -4.4 Evaluation of weapon systems, in addition 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 to the procurement of weapons already in production. 1 14 Total Obligational Authority ($ in Billions) Ö Isn't the Department of Defense budget really continuing to grow? $36 (12.1%) Current Year A: The military budget has declined each year in real Operations terms since FY 1985. $120.9 (40.7%) Based on the President's budget for FY 1991, $140.4 defense has already been cut by 16 percent in Current Year (47.2%) purchasing power since FY 1985. Investment: Procurement, R&D $297.3 and MILCON Including budget projections through FY 1995, Pay & Related the total decline since FY 1985 will be 22 percent. 13 2 Q: Do "big ticket" expenditures on new strategic Reductions to FY 1991 Budget Authority weapons account for the biggest share of defense ($ in Billions) budget growth? $395.5 400 A: Strategic forces account for only 8 percent of $364.9 the proposed FY 1991 budget compared to 9.5 percent five years ago. For example, the Peace- keeper missile, B-2 aircraft, C-17 aircraft, SSN-21 $324.3 $320.9 $311.0 and Strategic Defense Initiative programs represent 6.5 percent of the FY 1991 budget. $295.1 300 If the total budget authority for these programs ($19.2 billion) were cancelled in FY 1991, it would only save $4.6 billion in outlays in FY 1991. 200 Jan 86 Jan 87 Jan 88 Jan 89 Apr 90 Jan 90 3 12 1991 DoD Major Force Programs Q: Hasn't the Department of Defense budget been (Total Budget = $297.3 Billion) left virtually untouched by budget reductions taken to reduce the deficit? Admin $7 BII = 2% All Other $3 Bil = 1% Strategic Forces A: The Defense budget has been cut continuously Training & $23 Bil = 8% Medical: and drastically since January 1986. $41 Bil = 14% The FY 1991 budget level was first projected to Supply & Maintenance the Congress in January 1986 as the last year $26 Bil = 9% of the Five Year Defense Plan. This plan called for $395.5 billion to fund the FY 1991 R&D General Purpose defense program. $29 BII = 10% Forces The FY 1991 budget (for the fiscal year that $112 Bil = 38% begins on October 1, 1990) is currently being Intel & considered by the Congress. The President has Guard & Reserve Comm requested $295.1 billion for DoD. That figure $17 Bil = 6% $32 Bil = 11% is $100 billion below the original projections Air & Seallft in the plan. $6 Bil = 2% 11 4 Q: Does the Department of Defense continue to increase the number of civilian personnel even though the Shares of the Budget - Outlays total budget has been reduced each year since 1985? 55 A: Total DoD civil service employees, by the end of 50 FY 1991, is projected to be the lowest since FY 1984. 45 A 20,800 reduction is proposed in the number of T A C N G E E P E R Payments to Individuals 40 (Increase from 20.9% to 53.2%) 35 civilian personnel in the FY 1991 budget. Defense 30 (Decrease from 51.5% to20.6%) A reduction of 7,800 personnel is associated with 25 the Defense Management Review and demonstrates 20 the Department's aggressive use of management 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 improvements to reduce staffing wherever possible. FISCAL YEARS The decreased workload at navy shipyards and aircraft and ordnance facilities results in 13,000 personnel reductions. 5 10 1991 DoD Civilian Manpower Q: Does the Department of Defense budget consume (Total Manpower = 1,095,700) the largest share of federal outlays? A: In 1955, the Department of Defense accounted for 52 percent of all Federal outlays. Payments to individuals (social security, etc.) accounted for 21 percent. Defense Forty years later, by the end of FY 1995, DoD Agencies outlays are projected to decline to 21 percent of (104,100 total outlays, while payments to individuals will Air Force increase to 52 percent. This is a complete reversal (258,000) of the situation that existed in 1955. Army (391,900) Navy & Marine Corps (341,000) 9 6 Q: Isn't it true that the Department of Defense budget does not respond to the changes in world events, such as those in Eastern Europe, especially in establishing 1991 DoD Military Manpower military manpower levels where the major portion of (Total Manpower = 2,038,800) defense reductions must occur? A: FY 1991 Active force levels are projected to be Marine Corps 91,400 below the FY 1989 level. Reductions of (196,500) this magnitude cut into force structure, and two active CONUS (Continental United States) Army Air Force Divisions will be deleted in FY 1991. (530,000) The proposed total active military end strength will be at the 1980 level. In fact, the Army and Army Air Force levels will be the lowest since 1950. (727,500) Planning is going forward to further draw-down Navy troop strength, equipment and weaponry in Europe (584,800) in anticipation of the signing of a Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) agreement. 7 8