Ask the Scholar

Document scope · 1 page
doc
Scholar
Ask about this object, its catalog metadata, its source description, or the page inventory. For page-specific OCR and visual context, open one of the page chats.

Scholar Source Context

Document identity
localId
415892644
label
[Hotline-Political Briefing, 1/91-3/91]
core
doc
dtoType
document
pageCount
1
Source metadata
Source extras
naId
415892644
levelOfDescription
fileUnit
recordType
description
ocrSource
nara-archive
Single page context
seq
1
pageIndex
0
type
document
mediaId
b61f49df84017a8d
ocrText
Originally Processed With FOIA(s): FOIA Number: S FOIA MARKER This is not a textual record. This is used as an administrative marker by the George Bush Presidential Library Staff. Record Group/Collection: George H.W. Bush Presidential Records Collection/Office of Origin: Speechwriting, White House Office of Series: Snow, Tony, Files Subseries: Subject File, 1988-1993 OA/ID Number: 13894 Folder ID Number: 13894-024 Folder Title: [Hotline-Political Briefing, 1/91-3/91] Stack: Row: Section: Shelf: Position: G 18 29 2 2 Friday --- January 25, 1991 --- # # # ### THE DAILY BRIEFING ON AMERICAN POLITICS --- Updated Each Morning At 11:30 (c) The American Political Network, Inc. 282 North Washington Street, Falls Church, VA (703) 237-5130 MCGOVERN: "TANNED" AND "READY" SPOTLIGHT In NH speech, he rips "false patriotism. " If his committee GRADING THE WAR ON CAMPUS reaches $500K goal, he'll "announce by March." (#1) Berkeley DAILY CALIFORNIAN: "peace and negotiation can SC SENATE: HARTNETT HITS FRITZ prevail, but only if Ex-Rep. Hartnett "seriously citizens express their considering" challenge, cites opposition with their Hollings' war vote. (#13) bodies, voices and actions" COLUMBIA DAILY SPECTATOR: GOP GULF WAR: WHO'S IN CHARGE? "No blood for oil' should YEUTTER: As Cuomo, Foley and not be the only rallying Brown join Dem counterattack, cry; everyone must be aware NRSC rips "appeasement-before- of the complexities " country liberals." Gingrich DAILY NORTHWESTERN: "our says Bush "did not disagree" soldiers did not ask for with Yeutter. Fitzwater cites this war and should not be "a certain partisanship about blamed for it." the way the votes were cast. " DAILY TEXAN: "stopping ED TU? NRCC exodus. (#6, #7) [war] may be impossible. But we have to try. We owe BLACKS & WAR: GAPING AT THE GAP the soldiers that much. " 10 black Reps who opposed war Ann Arbor MICHIGAN DAILY: resolution get no heat at home. "while opposition to the Are black troops "puppets" or war is warranted, a "patriots?" (#3). Poll affirms compulsory draft at this black/white split on war (#19). point is necessary" to stop "de facto poverty draft." KEATING 5: JOY OF FUND-RAISING DAILY KENT STATER: In transcript of Oct. ethics "Let's not get caught up in panel session, Rudman called violence." (See #2) Cranston memo "startling." (#5) QUOTE OF THE DAY "African-Americans should not be left with military service as their best opportunity -- to die for someone else's country because the country refuses them what is originally theirs." -- PANTHER editorial (Clark College, Atlanta), 1/28, #2 (c) 1991 by the American Political Network, Inc. Any reproduction -- by photocopy, FAX, or other form -- in whole or in part, is a violation of federal law and is strictly prohibited without the consent of APN. All rights reserved. HOTLINE/DATABASE INDEX WHITE HOUSE '92 MCGOVERN: "Tanned and relaxed" -- and ready? (#1) FOCUS WAR ON CAMPUS: What the college newspapers are saying. (#2) RACE AND WAR: Dissent among black House members. (#3) TELEVISION: The medium's message. (#4) KEATING 5: Transcript of Cranston session hints at sanctions (#5) ROLLINS, NUTTLE, DARMAN: "Three shocks hit the GOP." (#6) YEUTTER: Dems ire; Bush doesn't disagree with war comments. (#7) HOTSPOTS GA: Here a Gov, there a Gov. (#8) IL: Edgar may be ordered to increase spending. (#9) MD: Schaefer budget program blasted. (#10) MA: Weld plan calls for state worker furloughs. (#11) MO: All in the family. (#12) SC: War vote prompts Hartnett Senate run? (#13) CALIFORNIA CABLE L.A. COUNTY SUPERVISOR: Round 2. (#14) CAMPAIGNS '91 KENTUCKY GOVERNOR: Buck's out, Galbraith lacks bucks. (#15) AUSTIN MAYOR: Cooke will not seek second term. (#16) DALLAS MAYOR: Smith enters a race w/o an election day. (#17) SAN ANTONIO MAYOR: Let the people be heard. (#18) POLL UPDATE NBC/WSJ: "Americans strongly support Gulf war. " (#19) TV MONITOR (#20) A.M. headlines Bomb Saddam? domestic affairs protests Baltics Leno. WHITE HOUSE '92 *1 MCGOVERN: "TANNED AND RELAXED" -- AND READY? George McGovern "told a standing-room only crowd at the [Univ. of NH] that he may again seek the presidency in 1992" (John Whitson, Manchester UNION LEADER). McGovern: "We need a strong alternative voice in the [Dem] Presidential arena this year. If no such candidate emerges, I may attempt to fill that leadership myself. I would prefer that a younger, less battle- scarred candidate would now come forward. But if that is not to be, then I believe that I am ready physically and mentally in heart, mind and body, to raise the Democratic standard." McGovern "voiced opposition to America's involvement in the Persian Gulf war, but "said he is considering the 1992 race because of his concerns about domestic policies by President George Bush and Ronald Reagan. He "decried what he called a 'false patriotism"" "It is not patriotic to commit young Americans to war unless our national security is clearly and absolutely involved, and that is the determination of the Congress." He "said he has formed a committee of 16 people who will spend the next several months gauging his ability to attract financial support, adding that he will need about $500,000 to begin a serious presidential bid" (1/25). The "exploratory committee hopes to raise $500,000 for a campaign, and if they do he will announce by March" (John Milne, BOSTON GLOBE, 1/25). McGovern: "I'm not under any illusions. I'd like to get something other than pure ridicule if I did it." He looked "tanned and relaxed. In particular, friends say, Mr. McGovern does not relish being labeled another Harold Stassen, the perennial [GOP] candidate of the 1940's, 50's and 60's" (Fox Butterfield, N.Y. TIMES) '84 McGovern NH coordinator Woody Woodland: "McGovern people who know the Senator have mixed feelings. We are excited, but we know it will be rough with comparisons to Stassen" (1/25). "[T]he most enthusiastic response came when he announced his tentative Presidential plans" (UNION LEADER, 1/25). "[T]he crowd broke into sustained applause that seemed to surprise even him. And it rekindled memories of the 1968 primary when an anti-war candidate shocked [NH] and the rest of the nation" (Adam Nagourney, USA TODAY, 1/25). FOCUS *2 WAR ON CAMPUS: WHAT THE COLLEGE NEWSPAPERS ARE SAYING The nation's campuses, particularly those with activist traditions, are torn by the war. Campus papers are calling for support for the troops, support for protesters' rights, and a quick end to war. Here's a sampler from around the country: BRANDEIS JUSTICE: "Nobody, absolutely nobody, is in favor of war. But a choice must be made as to whether or not the [U.S.], as a member of both the United Nations and a 28-country coalition, will oppose the violent acquisition of a country by one of its neighbors. In light of the exhaustion of peaceful solutions, we at the JUSTICE support the President's decision to use force against Saddam Hussein and his terrorism" (1/22). COLORADO DAILY (Boulder) "The nation is at war again. Those of us who believe in peace must be clear: We must not extol war. But we must not castigate U.S. soldiers who are doing only what their country and their duty demand. In doing so, however, abhorred. we do not have to glorify war. War is a horror to be We should pledge 'never again' once more. And we will (1/19). watch as the next generation ignores what we have learned" COLUMBIA DAILY SPECTATOR: "At Columbia, the anti-war rallies have been diminishing in size lately. As various groups have jumped on the soapbox with their individual causes, the rallies have lost any purpose for people who are still tentative about their position and trying to make a decision based on their protest experience. Cries against U.S. intervention in Nicaragua and El Salvador, against fur coats, and against the management of the Daily News should have no part in the rallies against the war in the Persian Gulf. These demonstrations are not the time or the place for militant recommendations that the 'corrupt, imperialist' government of the United States be overthrown. In so doing, the anti-war protestors are losing their power to effect change. This is not 1968 redux. Blockading buildings on campus will only deprive other students of their education -- it will not convince George Bush to withdraw the troops. The administration of Columbia has little to say about whether this war will be fought. We need peaceful, focused, organized rallies at Columbia to provide outlets for those who want to express Persian Gulf is not a simple issue. 'No blood for oil' should The not their feelings toward the war and bring about change be the only rallying cry; everyone must be aware of the complexities in order to more knowledgeably reach their own stance" (1/23). DAILY CALIFORNIAN (Berkeley) "The Daily Californian has supported the use of economic sanctions to force Iraqi president Saddam Hussein to relinquish his hold on Kuwait and continues to oppose this senseless, bloody and costly military action. Stopping this war requires a united anti-war effort utilizing creative and effective tactics that can bring the horrors of war -- entirely too real for [U.N.] troops, Iraqi civilians, and every Middle Eastern country from Israel to Turkey -- home to the average American. This war can be cut short, lives can be saved, peace and negotiation can prevail, but only if citizens express their opposition to the attack with their bodies, voices and actions. Every moment, every voice counts in these early hours of war" (1/17). DAILY KENT STATER: "Campus reaction to the war in the Persian Gulf is mirroring the reaction of the country Dialogue, is helpful, but screaming at one another is not. Violent reactions to protestors and anti-protestors do not bring peace. Isn't that what we all want anyway? Dialogue and open- mindedness bring about change. Let's not get caught up in violence. Hopefully, we've learned this lesson from the past" (1/23). DAILY NORTHWESTERN: "As debatable as the policies that brought American troops into war last night may be, our soldiers must now have our support. From the newspaper's first day of publication Fall Quarter, we have opposed any use of force in the Persian Gulf. It's too late for that now 'No blood for oil' is a good slogan, but there will be no peace now. Shouting for peace shows good intentions, but it's too late to save the lives of our soldiers. Some of them will die in even a short war. Students who detest a war fought largely for oil should continue to protest. But they must not forget that our soldiers did not ask for this war and should not be blamed for it. As upset as many students are, skipping classes accomplishes nothing, except to hurt the education students are at NU to receive" (1/17). DAILY TEXAN (Austin) "The first phase of the Persian Gulf War has succeeded, in a military sense, but the war itself remains tragic, unnecessary and -- it seems -- unstoppable. As a whole, America will support this war, as it supported Vietnam. Discontent will not reach a critical level until after it is too late. Wars are difficult to stop, and stopping this one may be impossible. But we have to try. We owe the soldiers that much" (1/18) DAILY UNIVERSE (Brigham Young) : "We support the timely manner that President Bush used in taking action. Once military conflict became inevitable, Bush didn't hedge or let U.S. troops and the American people wait in anguish for the first move. Global anxiety, which served no one but Saddam, has been building for five months, and its strength had only been reinforced with the passing of Tuesday's U.N. deadline. Dodging the inevitable, for any length of time, would have only fueled a potentially dangerous fire" (1/17) DUKE CHRONICLE: "As U.S. planes bomb Baghdad and military families brace themselves for bad news, some war sympathizers intend to silence the protests. This must not happen. As the war progresses through its early stages and the Pentagon reports great success, many do not have the stomach to see or join a peace rally. But the war will not end this week, and when the 'war euphoria' wears off, the peace movement must be ready and organized as its membership grows" (1/22) MICHIGAN DAILY (Ann Arbor) : "Whether we like it or not the [U.S.] is at war. And though anyone can resort to violence, it takes strong-willed people to make peace. America must now make it clear we support peace thought negotiation, not more killing through war" (1/17). "[W]hile opposition to the war is warranted, a compulsory draft at this point is necessary. However unjust the war might be, the greater injustice lies in the fact that the poor and people color in our society continue to shoulder the majority of the fighting. Though technically volunteers, these troops are part of a de facto poverty draft" (1/23). PANTHER (Clark College, Atlanta): "with the nation at war, African-Americans have focused on the great number of African- Americans in the military. Some are even puzzled by the president's decision to go to war after vetoing the civil rights bill. He has sent them to possibly die in 'no man's land.' African-Americans make up only about 15% of the population between the ages of 18 and 24, the ages of those who are constantly finding the armed services more and more attractive. Some ask, 'Couldn't they find work elsewhere?' Well maybe not, but that is a social problem. That is a problem with society, both the white American society, and the African-American society. ... Still, African-Americans should not be left with military service as their best opportunity -- to die for someone else's country -- because the country refuses them what is originally theirs" (1/28). PITT NEWS: "We hope that Operation Desert Storm is successful. Not because we approve the use of military force in this situation, but because the scenario if Desert Storm fails would be horrific" (1/18). YALE DAILY NEWS: "Antiwar sentiment on campus is not as pervasive as either last week's repeated rallies or the feeling that the time is right for a revival of 60's-style activism would suggest. Saturday's Yale Daily News poll of more than a tenth of undergraduates showed only 36% opposed to current U.S. military action. 52% supported the war, while a full 12% -- were unsure" (1/22). *3 RACE AND WAR: DISSENT AMONG BLACK HOUSE MEMBERS During last week's vote, "only 12 House members stuck their necks out by voting no or present on a resolution supporting U.S. troops and commending President Bush for his leadership as commander-in-chief." The "dozen dissenters" -- "10 of whom are liberal, black members from inner-city, majority-black districts" -- appear "to have avoided any political damage from the vote" (Tom Kenworthy, WASH. POST). "The high proportion of black congressmen -- 10 out of 24 -- voting against the resolution -- reflects the relative lack of enthusiasm for the war among black Americans." Rep. Craig Washington (D-TX), when asked if there were any "negative repercussions" from his "no" vote: "Heavens no. The biggest complaint I've had is they expected me to stop [the war] from happening" (1/25). PUPPETS OR PATRIOTS? Some black critics of the war are "bitter that their sons and daughters are being sent to war by an Administration that they see as insensitive to members of minority groups. Others say that problems like drugs and crime in this country are more important than Iraq and Kuwait" (Isabel Wilkerson, N.Y. TIMES). There is, however, "pride and comfort" among other blacks about Colin Powell as the nations first black JCS chair. Asst. Defense Sec. Christopher Jehn, on the disproportionate number of blacks in the military: "Nobody's making them enlist. They're not victims, they're willing, patriotic Americans.' Notes Wilkerson, "But critics say the military is taking advantage of economic conditions that make the armed forces the only chance for steady work to some black people. They say such an enlistment amounts to a kind of poverty draft" (1/25). Conservative activist/ex-MD Sen. candidate Alan Keyes counters, "The people who choose to fill our military ranks instead of our jails should be commended. They should be praised, their choice should be held up to our young people as the model of their behavior. Instead of turning this into another tawdry exhibit in their quest for new government spending, black leaders should be building it into a foundation for greater pride in the black community and a more prominent leadership role for blacks in the community at large" (WASH. TIMES, 1/25). Columnist Vanessa Gallman: "What change the 'be all that you can be' military generation will bring remains to be seen, but it will have consequences for the stability and progress of this country into the 21st century. That's why its foolish -- no matter how important the immediate goal -- to project an image of blacks in the Gulf as puppets or malcontents" (WASH. TIMES, 1/25). *4 TELEVISION: THE MEDIUM'S MESSAGE "MacNeil/Lehrer" examined "the tensions that have erupted between the press and the Bush administration over the Gulf War," both because of CNN's recent report that the U.S. had bombed a baby's milk factory in Baghdad (quickly claimed by the Pentagon to be a chemical weapons facility) and because of the Pentagon's initial restrictions on war coverage. Panelists: Pentagon spokesperson Pete Williams, Adm Thomas Moorer (Ret.), TIME's Stanley Cloud and CBS' Morley Safer. Williams: "Everybody says that Generals are doomed to re-fight the last war, and I think in a sense press critics are doomed to re-criticize the last war, too." Safer noted Quayle Wednesday restated Bush's promise of "No more Vietnams": "He wasn't talking only about military action -- he was talking about American access to information about what's hap -- what's going to hap -- what IS happening in this war" (1/24). Tonight on "M/L": How well the military and the media is keeping the U.S. public informed. Bill Moyers: "The United States is at war, and censorship is the necessary evil that accompanies war. That's a case to be made, though, only if your own country is under attack and the nation is fighting for survival, or if reporting actually would jeopardize the troops. What's happening in the Persian Gulf is something else. " One example Moyers offers was when a correspondent's description of U.S. pilots exuberant over the success of their first combat mission -- he called them "giddy" -- was changed by a U.S. military censor to "proud," without the reporter's knowledge. Moyers: "Journalism was instantly turned into official propaganda, an extension of the government's vast publicity machine" (CNN, 1/24). CNN also examined the impact of the war on advertisers' policies and ad campaigns (1/24) NBC titled it's story: "Information please.' AP's Richard Pyle: "Well, I think this may be the tightest restrictions American reporters have ever had to contend with." One example: U.S. military press stopped an NBC interview with an Army chaplain -- when "no military secrets were being breached" -- because Saudi Arabia "is a strict Islamic country where Christian chaplains are supposed to be keeping a low profile" (1/24). "Crossfire" looked at the issue with ex-network correspondent Bernie Kalb and Media Research Center's Brent Bozell. Kalb: "The greatest obligation you can do to the United States to win this war is to keep on the side of truth and objectivity and not get bogged down in all this mindless flag-waving." Bozell: "I don't consider waving the flag a mindless exercise." Buchanan's conclusion: "In a tie -- a tie goes to the military." Kinsley: "It is not unpatriotic, as some would like to suggest, to be skeptical about what the military is trying to prevent people from reporting" (CNN, 1/24). A CBS disclaimer: "We are bringing you as best we can all the news, but we hope you understand, much of it is controlled, sometimes tightly controlled, by military and political sources -- on all sides. That's why much of what you see on your screen says 'cleared by censors'" (Dan Rather's sign-off, 1/24). OTHER VIEWS WALTER CRONKITE: "I do not quite see how you can cover a ground engagement live and not be giving information to the enemy. the networks probably ought to attempt it as a matter of making arrangements with the military to cover as much as they can, but our arguments so far about censorship to the powers that be in the Pentagon have ignored the fact that we're fighting a new kind of war with [TV] now" (CHICAGO TRIBUNE, 1/24). HODDING CARTER: "What needs to be done right now, before the killing starts on the ground, is for the reporters to go out and challenge the system. To directly test it. The government would be happy to see coverage contained to press pools, but that's no way to cover a fast-moving war on multiple fronts" (USA TODAY, 1/25). CHICAGO TRIBUNE editorial: "[The military] must never withhold sound data for purely political reasons, or to spare itself embarrassment. The media, too, ought to heed the injunction to smarten up. Some of their -- our -- practices could stand more scrutiny" (1/24). N.Y. POST editorial: "As for withholding information, we hope the Pentagon is doing just that. The first task for the U.S. military is to win the war, not to educate the press and -- via the press -- Saddam Hussein as to allied strategy. we'd sooner see a story missed than a coalition soldier or an innocent civilian die because some news report helped Saddam improve his aim" (1/25). GERMOND & WITCOVER: "At some point down the road, the White House inevitably will be obliged to deal with any discrepancies between the picture it is presenting and the facts the press finally assembles. If those discrepancies are significant, a backlash against the war policy may be inevitable" (Balto. EVENING SUN, 1/24). USA TODAY: A poll conducted by Frank Magdid Assoc., of 647 adult TV viewers, found 54% "said the media have the right amount of freedom to move around. But 24% said the media have too much freedom; 17% said the media are too restricted. 52% "said the government and military are not manipulating the media" (1/24) WASH. TIMES editorial: "The reporters do have some worthy points: 'Pool coverage' is silly [They] are also right to question the sincerity of military escorts and censors. [But] The overlook the fact that there's no real way to cover an air war. a) there aren't that many gettable stories right now and b) reporters are behaving as if they have a divine right to every available scrap of information" (1/25). *5 KEATING 5: TRANSCRIPT OF CRANSTON SESSION HINTS AT SANCTIONS After the Senate Ethics Committee concluded two months of public hearings last week, the transcript of a 10/16/90 panel session with Sen. Alan Cranston (D-CA) was released that gives "a possible glimpse of members' thinking" as they prepare to begin deliberations 1/30. Committee members "appeared troubled by aspects" of Cranston's relationship with Keating and seemed "particularly concerned about the role of Cranston's chief fundraiser, Joy Jacobson, played in the operation of" Cranston's office. Committee vice-chair Warren Rudman (R-NH) "questioned Cranston extensively" about a 9/87 Jacobson memo to Cranston regarding an upcoming meeting with Keating. Jacobson in the letter: "I have attached an article from the Wall Street Journal which talks about the views of the new [FHLBB] Chairman Danny Wall, views that are obviously good news to Keating. You should ask Keating for $250,000." Rudman: "I happen to think it reaches some kind of a threshold, that kind of a memorandum, although, as you say, you did not write it. It is really the appearance here of impropriety more than it is the violation of a specific rule that I think is the central issue we are dealing with in this case. I will tell you, quite frankly, that I think I can say fairly that when every member of the committee first reviewed that, it really was a startling kind of a document." Cranston's session with the panel "concluded a 10- month probe by the committee's special counsel, Robert Bennett, and offered Cranston a last chance to argue against the scheduling of public proceedings, which began a month later." Cranston, on the memo: "I think it should also be taken into consideration in the context of whether I did anything improper. I did not. I know of no reason for more investigation Get this over with before all hopes of restoring my cherished reputation for integrity is lost" (Mark Barabak, SAN DIEGO UNION, 1/25). COME JUDGMENT DAY: W.S. JOURNAL editorial: "We have a fair degree of tolerance for watching sausages and laws being made, but somewhere in this morass a line has to be drawn. If Mr. Keating got only constituent service, then constituent service has to go" (1/24). Balto. SUN editorial: "Senators say their responsibility to help constituents applies to those who make campaign contributions as well as to those who do not and that there is no clear dividing line between ethical and unethical assistance to a contributor. They are right that the line is not perfectly clear. But there is a line and men and women smart enough to get elected to the U.S. Senate can distinguish. However the committee decides to deal with the five men, it should make as clear as it can the distinctions in their behavior that brings about distinctions in recommended punishments" (1/23). DETROIT FREE PRESS editorial: "Last fall [Sen. Donald Riegle (D-MI) ] welcomed the hearings. He described the process as an opportunity 'to fully and fairly inform the public' on what he actually had and hadn't done. 'When all the facts are known, the public will see that all my actions were proper, Sen. Riegle promised. Well, the hearings ended ... But it is clear already that Sen. Riegle failed to pass the test by his own standard. He said a lot but explained little" (1/23). WASH. POST frames the question by saying the committee "must now decide whether and how the behavior of the Keating Five differs from what normal senators do every day The Ethic Committee is not limited to finding violations of particular Senate rules. Yes, it's a gray world up there, but it's possible to distinguish between right and wrong. That's the Ethics Committee's job; that's why they call it ethics" (1/22). *6 ROLLINS, NUTTLE, DARMAN: "THREE SHOCKS HIT THE GOP" PHILA. INQUIRER headline: "Bush challenger quits GOP job." NRCC co-chair Ed Rollins "confirmed yesterday that he is leaving effective March 1 and taking a job with Sawyer-Miller, a political and corporate communications firm" (Carl Cannon, 1/25). The heretofore Dem firm most recently handled Harvey Gantt's challenge to Sen. Jesse Helms (R-NC) in '90. Rollins said Quayle adviser Spencer Abraham has been offered Rollins' job. "One source said Rollins wanted to defy White House efforts to oust him by remaining for several months after the November election 'to show the White House couldn't run him off'" (Schwartz/Edsall, WASH. POST, 1/25). NRCC director Marc Nuttle also will leave and "will raise capital to help Republicans win congressional seats. Both men originally had planned to stay through the 1992 elections. Both said yesterday they were not forced out" (Ralph Hallow, WASH. TIMES, 1/25). NEWT & DICK: Yesterday "The White House, helped by House Minority Whip Newt Gingrich, beat back a resolution by [RNC] anti-taxers calling on President Bush to fire Budget Director RIchard Darman. RNC member Morton Blackwell of VA "was warned indirectly by Mr. Gingrich that pushing the anti-Darman resolution would be bad for his political health." Backers of the dump-Darman resolution plan to bring the resolution before the full RNC today" (Hallow, WASH. TIMES, 1/25). *7 YEUTTER: DEMS' IRE; BUSH DOESN'T DISAGREE WITH WAR COMMENTS On the day he is to be voted in an RNC Chair, Ag Sec. Clayton Yeutter "has stirred up a political storm" with his comments about the partisan consequences of Dem votes against Bush's use-of-force resolution (John Mashek, BOSTON GLOBE) House Speaker Tom Foley and DNC Chair Ron Brown joined Sen. Bob Kerrey (D-NE), who Yeutter had singled out (see HOTLINE 1/24 #1), in criticizing Yeutter. Foley called it a "political scare tactic I think his judgment has deserted him. Brown, who called the comments a "disgrace," expressed additional anger over an NRSC letter, under NRSC Chair Phil Gramm's signature, which appealed for funds to help defeat "these wolves in sheep's clothing appeasement-before-country liberals." The White House hedged in its backing of Yeutter's comments with spokesperson Marlin Fitzwater saying, "We think it was a vote of conscience. We're not trying to make it a partisan issue, " but adding, "there was a certain partisanship about the way the votes were cast" (1/25). Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA) said that Bush yesterday "agreed with Mr. Yeutter." House. Min. Whip Newt Gingrich said Bush "certainly did not disagree." Gingrich "said he agreed with" Yeutter personally: "It was a serious choice of where America ought to go and people should be measured by it." RNC spokesperson Jay Cooper: "What Yeutter was saying is that it is an issue of leadership in 1992. We're very pleased that after the vote, there was a closing of ranks in Congress" (Frank Murray, WASH. TIMES, 1/25). A WH aide "acknowledged that it was customary that the [RNC chair] and the vice president play a partisan role in politics, permitting the president to be statesmanlike" (GLOBE, 1/25). When reporters asked Bush yesterday about Yeutter's comments, Yeutter interjected, "You need a little more precision on what Mr. Yeutter said." Notes Finlay Lewis, "He did not elaborate." Gov. Mario Cuomo (D-NY), in a TV interview yesterday, pointed to similar recent comments by Bill Bennett: "To convert this into a political platform I think is worse than bad taste" (COPLEY NEWS SERVICE, 1/25) LINCOLN STAR editorial calls Yeutter "wrong to turn war into partisan battle. playing politics with the war at this early date is not appropriate. Yeutter's comments were wrong and dumb. This war may or may have an 80 percent approval rating in 1992" (1/24) Other headlines: "GOP boss ruffles Dem doves' feathers" (N.Y. POST, 1/25). "Political Warfare Erupts Over Gulf" (WASH. POST, 1/25). DALLAS MORNING NEWS' Carl Leubsdorf agrees with Yeutter's assessment: "the initial successes at the onset of the fighting pose the prospect of dire political consequences for [Dems] virtually every top Democrat has taken an enormous political risk that could undercut the party's 1992 challenge to Mr. Bush. if the president's decision succeeds in liberating Kuwait and perhaps also destroying Saddam Hussein's military, nuclear and chemical capability, there seems little doubt that not only Mr. Bush but the entire GOP will be able to benefit politically from Democratic opposition. about the only way that the [Dems] can benefit is from a highly costly or unsuccessful war, as well as from economic hard times if one result of the conflict is to deepen or lengthen the current recession" (1/25). HOTSPOTS *8 GEORGIA: HERE A GOV, THERE A GOV Ex-Pres./ex-Gov. Jimmy Carter will attend today's gathering of ex-govs. to honor the GA Government Documentation project. Carter, who "had planned to be in Africa," canceled his trip when the Gulf War broke out and will join Gov. Zell Miller (D) and ex- govs. Herman Talmadge, Ernest Valdiver, Carl Sanders, Lester Maddox, George Busbee and Joe Frank Harris at the ceremony. Ellis Arnall, "the only other living [GA] governor, is in poor health and can't attend" (ATLANTA JOURNAL-CONSTITUTION, 1/24). *9 ILLINOIS: EDGAR MAY BE ORDERED TO INCREASE SPENDING Gov. Jim Edgar (R) may face "still another big obstacle as he tries to balance the [IL] budget while keeping his promise not to raise taxes." The ACLU filed a suit against the Dept. of Children and Family Services (DCFS), proposing that instead of "removing abused and neglected children from their parent's homes,' the DCFS leave the children at home while providing the parents with counseling and homemakers to help clean and cook and teach these skills to the parents. In the settlement, U.S. District Judge John Grady could order Edgar and the General Assembly to "budget tens of millions of dollars more" for DCFS. A panel of 13 child-welfare experts appointed by the judge to study the problem has already come to the conclusion that the "system is in a horrible mess that can only be fixed with huge new infusions of money." If no settlement is reached in the negotiations that have been going on since last summer, the case would go to trial this summer or fall. If IL is ordered to budget more money for the DCFS, it "will join the growing list of states in which public policy, especially in the fields of human services and education, is being made not by elected officials but by court decree" (Karwath, CHIC. TRIB., 1/24). *10 MARYLAND: SCHAEFER BUDGET PROGRAM BLASTED Balto. EVENING SUN's Frank DeFilippo writes Gov. Wm. Donald Schaefer "sounded like a cross between Little Orphan Annie and Doctor Gloom" in both his inaugural address and his state of the state speech -- and both speeches "were calculated attempts to shuck off the funk he's been in since his disappointing numbers (59 percent) in the November election. For the most part, Schaefer was a ditzy burble of optimism. Beset by a nose-diving economy at home and an uncertain war abroad Schaefer was reflecting more of the reckless '80s than the new reality of the '90s" as he "talked about stepping out and doing bold things, about state government setting the pace by continuing to build roads, highways and light rail systems" (1/24). *11 MASSACHUSETTS: WELD PLAN CALLS FOR STATE WORKER FURLOUGHS Hoping to cut $90 million from a budget that's $850 million in the red, Gov. William Weld (R) "plans to require 63,000 state employees to take a two-week unpaid furlough." The proposal "is almost certain to face opposition from the state's public employee unions." Described as an "unfortunate but necessary part of the budgetary crisis plan of action," the furloughs are "most likely to be conducted on a staggered basis -- for virtually all executive branch employees over the next five months." AFSCME spokesperson Tom O'Connor, "noting the state deficit is partly the result of a fall-off in sales taxes, said it would be "absurd" to lay off workers during the current recession: "Let's put thousands more people out there without income and see what happens." He also said "that Weld will have to negotiate an OK from the public employee unions on the planned furlough and, failing that, would need to go to the Legislature for approval." Weld: "We've got some work to do. We've made the decision that we're going to take whatever medicine we have to take in order to close our budget deficit for 1992 and 1991 without raising taxes" (BOSTON HERALD, 1/24). HIGHER WAGES, FEWER JOBS IN GOV'S OFFICE: Even though Weld "has made a substantial cut in the number of employees and the overall payroll costs in the governor's office, he is paying higher wages than predecessor Michael Dukakis did. Weld's office "employs 44 people with an average annual salary of $41,347," while Dukakis "paid 63 employees an average salary of $34, 072.' Weld spokesperson Ray Howell: "The governor wanted to reduce the size of his own staff, both to save money and eliminate some of the bureaucracy that creates inefficiency. And since he was asking fewer people to do the same amount of work, he thought they should be compensated accordingly" (HERALD, 1/24). *12 MISSOURI: ALL IN THE FAMILY The MO state Senate became the only state Senate nationwide to house a mother/son team, when Steve Danner was sworn in 1/9. Danner was the only successful challenger to defeat an incumbent Senator, winning the 28th district. Danner's mother, Pat Danner has held the seat in district 12 since 1982. According to the National Conference on State Legislators, father/son teams are more common (Balto. EVENING SUN, 1/24). *13 SOUTH CAROLINA: WAR VOTE PROMPTS HARTNETT SENATE RUN? Ex-Rep. Tommy Hartnett (R) "said he is seriously considering" challenging Sen. Ernest Hollings (D) in 1992. Hartnett "said his interest [in the race] was picqued" by Hollings' vote against authorizing the use of force against Iraq. Hartnett said he was "ashamed" of Hollings' vote: "It appears the Russians did more for us in the United Nations than Fritz Hollings did in the U.S. Senate." Hollings "enters the 1992 contest with high name recognition and a considerable war chest." He "easily" won his last two races, garnering 70% in '80 and 63% in '86. Hartnett gave up his seat in 1986 in an unsuccessful bid for LG. He said he supports congressional term limits and admitted that it will be "a gargantuan task to defeat any incumbent senator anywhere." A possible Hartnett candidacy "was first proposed" two years ago by RNC Chair Lee Atwater, who promised "to pull out every stop I could as chairman" to defeat Hollings (Charleston NEWS & COURIER, 1/24). CALIFORNIA CABLE *14 L.A. COUNTY SUPERVISOR: ROUND 2 City Councilmember Gloria Molina (D) and state Sen. Art Torres (D) "have four weeks to WOO voters in the 1st District before the Feb. 19 runoff for a seat on the five-member Board of Supervisors, which will be transformed from conservative control to a 3-2 liberal majority no matter who wins." Though Molina received 35% of the vote to Torres' 26%, she lacked the majority needed to avoid a runoff (see HOTLINE 1/23 #10). Both are now actively soliciting the support of the two other major candidates state Sen. Charles Calderon (D) and ex-Sup. Schabarum aide Sarah Flores (R) who received 16% and 20% of the vote, respectively. The runoff is set for 2/19 (Simon/Stewart, L.A. TIMES, 1/24). Meanwhile, "competing factions of Latino Democrats have also begun to quietly compete for either the City Council seat or state Senate seat that will be vacated by the winner of the Feb. 19 election." In Molina's corner are U.S. Reps. Esteban Torres (D-34) and Ed Roybal (D-25), deputy L.A. Mayor Ed Avila, and Assemblywoman Lucile Roybal-Allard. In Torres', Councilmembers Richard Alatorre and Michael Woo, Assemblyman Richard Polanco and Deputy Mayor Mark Fabiani. Molina manager Alma Martinez and Assemblywoman Roybal-Allard are possible candidates for Molina's council seat. Assemblyman Polanco has been mentioned for Torres' Senate seat (Hector Tobar, L.A. TIMES, 1/24). CAMPAIGNS '91 *15 KENTUCKY GOVERNOR: BUCK'S OUT, GALBRAITH LACKS BUCKS Leonard "Buck" Beasley (R) said he would not run for gov. and will support Larry Forgy. Beasley instead will run for ag. commissioner. Also, "pro-marijuana" lawyer Gatewood Galbraith filed for the Dem nomination, paying the $20 filing fee "with what he said was borrowed money. Other candidates in the race are GOPers Barry Barmore, Art Eddleman and Dem Ed Logedon. Other Dems filing 1/24: Pike County Judge-Exec. Paul Patton for LG; Drex Davis, Jr., son of former treasurer and sec. of state Drexell Davis, for state treasurer; and Nelson County Magistrate Joe "Rooster Run" Evans for sec. of state (Al Cross, Louisville COURIER-JOURNAL, 1/25). HOTLINE sources report KY first lady Martha Wilkinson (D) will file 1/28, one day before deadline, and Rep. Larry Hopkins (R) will file today. WALLY'S WORLD OF ILLUSION: LEXINGTON HERALD-LEADER's Bill Bishop writes, "For a guy who wants to be governor so bad it must hurt him at night, Wallace Wilkinson [D] has shown little interest in governing. The two are separate, being governor and governing. The first requires a total devotion to self. The general, the governor has shown in three years that he is good In governor has shown a talent for this part of the job. with money. The rest of state government, the day-to-day about. Unless, of course, the tinkering tends to help the tinkering with programs and policy, I don't see him giving a flip election chances of wife/candidate Martha" (1/23). *16 AUSTIN MAYOR: COOKE WILL NOT SEEK SECOND TERM Popular Austin Mayor Lee Cooke announced he will not run for re-election to a second term. "Cooke said he agonized over the decision, but arrived at it after weighing personal and economic first. factors.' The 48-year-old Cooke: "I've always put the city I don't know that I've been very balanced. I could wake up one morning and be 55 years old and not have a family, not have a spouse or a personal life. I've got to do other things with my life." Cooke "emphasized that his stepping down is not a signal that he is running for state or federal office." Potential candidates: Council members Robert Barnstone and Max Nofziger; and former Mayors Jeff Friedman and Frank Cooksy, both of whom Cooke defeated in '88 (Austin AMERICAN-STATESMAN, 1/24). *17 DALLAS MAYOR: SMITH ENTERS A RACE W/O AN ELECTION DAY Dallas atty. Forrest Smith said 1/22 "he is prepared to run for mayor as soon as a federal judge orders an election." Smith on his inexperience: "They want a new brand of leadership and The city has asked U.S. District Judge Jerry Buchmeyer to that's what I'm offering" (David Jackson, DALLAS MORNING NEWS). schedule a November election under the 10-4-1 plan, using new census figures. The plan would elect 10 council members from single-member districts, four from larger regional districts, and elect the mayor citywide. Buchmeyer "struck down the city's present election system" in 1990. Smith said he supported the 10-4-1 plan and then the 14-1 (all council members elected at- large) plan in the two recent referendums: "I favor whatever the City Council and the judge come up with. ... I just want to get on with it" (1/23). Another possible candidate for Mayor, Councilperson Jerry Barlos, repeated chances are "overwhelming" he will run for mayor if Rep. Steve Bartlett does not; Barlos is a "longtime supporter" of Bartlett's. If Barlos runs he will make a top priority "to restore some order and direction in the city, in city business. Dallas does a lousy job of economic development, if it even does a job. We've got to put some meat on that table.' Bartlett could not be reached for comment. Other possible candidates are Council member Jim Buerger, ex- Dallas County judge candidate Kathryn Cain and ex-Mayor Jack Evans. Mayor Annette Strauss (D) has not yet announced her intention to seek another term (Jackson, DMN, 1/24). The date for the race remains unscheduled. *18 SAN ANTONIO MAYOR: LET THE PEOPLE BE HEARD "It is not quite [the] Target '90" that ex-Mayor Henry Cisneros introduced in the early '80's, but mayoral candidate/council member Nelson Wolff unveiled his "San Antonio Tomorrow" plan in front of a group of seventh graders 1/23 (Stuart Eskenazi, SAN ANTONIO LIGHT). Wolff told the youngsters, "You all are the ones who are going to have to live with what we do. And if we don't do it right, you're not going to be happy." The plan launches a group of "citizen task forces," expected to number 50 to 100 per group, to focus on themes of jobs, education and neighborhoods. Before being elected to Council in 1987, Wolff served as chair of Target '90 but says the two differ in that San Antonio Tomorrow will seek out the views of ordinary citizens. Wolff also does not plan to introduce the group's report, to be released 4/13, to Council, but will instead "add its ideas into his administrative priorities" if elected in the 5/4 election. Wolff: "I intend to be elected, but I think it will be a good and valuable help whether I'm elected or not" (1/24). According to the most recent campaign finance reports filed by Wolff, he had raised $104,765 for the election, and hopes to raise "between $400,000 and $500,000" according to his manager Ramiro Cavozos. Mayor Lala Cockree, and fellow mayoral candidates councilperson Maria Berriozabal and ex-councilmember Van Archer had not filed reports (Jeannie Dever, LIGHT, 1/12). POLL UPDATE *19 NBC/WSJ: SUPPORT FOR BUSH DIVIDES ALONG RACIAL LINES 808 registered voters were interviewed ON 1/23 by the polling organizations of Peter Hart and Robert Teeter. The margin of error is +/- 3.5% (NBC, 1/24; W.S. JOURNAL, 1/25). NOW 12/90 Bush job approval: NOW WHITE BLACK WHITE BLACK 77% 81% 48% 60% 26% QUESTION: Agree that Bush waited long enough before using military force. WHITE 78% BLACK 52% QUESTION: Agree that Bush should have given sanctions more time to work. WHITE 19% BLACK 39% QUESTION: Please tell me whether you think the U.S. and allies should or should not continue the war in order to SHOULD SHOULD NOT force Iraq to withdraw from Kuwait 91% 7% destroy Iraq's offensive military capabilities 87 10 capture of kill Saddam Hussein 73 21 QUESTION: If it appears that the war will cost thousands of American casualties, do you think the United States should continue the war until we achieve our objectives, or seek a negotiated settlement to end the war? CONTINUE WAR 56% SEEK A SETTLEMENT 38% ALSO - 73% / 23% say Pentagon has been open / not open enough with media. - 25% / 40% believe the economy will get better / worse in the next 12 months. - 55% expect the war to last three months or more. - 73% think it is likely that the war will lead to a major terrorist attack in the U.S. - 87% believe it is likely the war will widen, with Israel being drawn into it. - 60% says it has lost respect for anti-war protesters. - 54% find it likely the U.S. will get bogged down in a lengthy land war. - 55% think it likely that the nation will become seriously divided over whether to continue the war. TV MONITOR *20 8:30 A.M. HEADLINES: 1. "Clear weather allows intensive bombing to continue in Iraq and Kuwait after a day that saw a record 3,000 air missions. 2. The Pentagon denies a report that Saddam Hussein was the target of Allied war planes last week. 3. Iraqi television carries pictures of three more Americans said to be captured pilots" (CBS). THIS MORNING: Johns Hopkins' Fouad Ajami: "Clearly the Egyptians are a key player in this coalition ... [Egypt] is on the side of enforcing the U.N. resolutions and sanctions. [But] the opposition press is pointing out the pampered Kuwaiti children and saying 'how can we have a situation where these kids are idling the nights away ... while our Egyptian boys are on the front" (CBS). NBC interviewed pollsters Peter Hart and Robert Teeter. Randall Pinkerton: "Republican congressional leaders are also beginning to blame the media for creating the idea that the war would be over quickly" (CBS). LAST NIGHT: ABC's "PrimeTime Live" examined what a ground war would be like, and promised to show "a side of Saddam you've never seen before" -- and in earlier shows teased with a clip of Saddam swimming with a little girl in his arms. CNN and NBC examined the impact of the war and its news on U.S. children; ABC is planning a special for children with Peter Jennings this Saturday a.m. ABC and CBS gave an in-depth look at the threat of terrorism; CBS focused on that again on "America Tonight." CNN's "Special Assignment" looked at the leader of a primary terrorist group, Abu Abbas. ABC's CNN's "Crossfire" debated the censorship and the media's role in reporting the war. WAR LINE: ABC: "In the battle itself, 51 Iraqis taken prisoner, as a speck of Kuwaiti territory falls into Allied hands" (Jennings). The CBS promo: "The air war heats up for top guns over the Persian Gulf." NBC described the air battle when the Saudi pilot downed two Iraqi planes: "It was Arab against Arab" (Tom Brokaw). NBC's Arthur Kent continued, "Militarily and politically, the broader participation of Allied air forces in the air war is bad news for Saddam Hussein. And if what is going on in the air holds true on the ground, then this alliance will be much more powerful than first expected." BOMB SADDAM? "U.S. officials insist there is no official allied policy to hunt Saddam Hussein down and take him out. That doesn't mean, necessarily, there's no effort to find him, bomb him and kill him" (Rather, CBS). Rep. Bob Clement (D-TN) : "I encourage the allied forces to look seriously in terms of shortening this war by Saddam being a target." Sen. Al D'Amato (R-NY) "Whether we target him by way of a mission of search and destroy, or capturing and taking him out." However, Rep. Lee Hamilton (D-IN) : "If he is persuaded that our objective is to kill him, then he really has no reason to negotiate at all" (CBS). ABC's "PrimeTime" looked at "the other side" of Saddam Hussein -- "The sanitized Saddam" -- with pictures from his family album. Still, ABC called violence "a family affair," and cited reports Saddam Hussein had his brother-in-law killed. PROTESTS: CBS and ABC covered the public backlash in Arcata, CA when the City Council declared the town a sanctuary for war protestors -- as San Francisco, Berkeley and Oakland have also done -- with ABC noting "thousands" of residents protested. A sign at a demonstration: "My son is a Marine in the Middle East.' "Because of the uproar,' the City Council rescinded the resolution and apologized. City Councilwoman Lynne Canning, at a public meeting, to cheers: "I apologize to all of you who heard our statement as a sign of disrespect to our troops in the Gulf, their families here at home, or the veterans that have gone before them." CBS's John Blackstone summarized the question of patriotism being asked across the country: "Is it possible to love the flag, and at the same time oppose the war?" One demonstrator: "God Bless the silent majority" (CBS). ABC's Chris Burie followed with a story on Kent State, opening with students chanting "USA, USA": "This time, the loudest chants support American policy." At the student newspaper, the KENT STATER, letters to the editor are running 3-to-1 in support of U.S. action in the Gulf (for KENT editorial, see #2). "OTHER NEWS OF OTHER TROUBLE": That's ABC's intro to a report saying the Soviet Ambassador to the U.S. meets with Sec/State Jim Baker Saturday, when he "is bound to hear a formal protest" over Soviet action in the Baltics. Rep. Bob Michel (R- IL) quoted Bush as saying in his meeting with Congressional leaders, "I know Gorbachev has the message. We don't want to overreact; however, statements by the Congress are very helpful." Brit Hume reported "informed officials" say next month's planned summit will be called off, because "The White House feels it has little other leverage" (ABC). HOME FIRES STILL BURN: Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS) "There are some very serious economic concerns; we do have problems in education, the president feels very strongly and he mentioned that today, that some of these things need to be dealt with by the Congress, and not just in a way that adds more funds to the spending side of the ledger. CBS's Wyatt Andrews: "The financial drain of Desert Storm will wipe out any chance of a peace dividend and reduce the chance of any new, fully funded domestic program.' Andrews said some are predicting a U.S. deficit this year of $400 billion -- while just this past fall, Budget Director Richard Darman was promising a deficit of just $65 billion. LATVIRAQ: "I've come up with what I think is a pretty good plan to end the war right now. Why don't we just tell Gorbachev that Iraq is really a Soviet Republic trying to get independence. He'll send some tanks in, [and] they'll crush that thing in no time" (Jay Leno, "Tonight, NBC). TV SOUNDBITE "Everybody says that Generals are doomed to re-fight the last war, and I think in a sense press critics are doomed to re-criticize the last war, too.' -- Pentagon's Pete Williams, "MacNeil/Lehrer," PBS, 1/24 #### --- Tuesday --- February 5, 1991 --- ###### ### # # ### ## ## # ## ## ############# # # # ### ## ## ## ##### ##### --- THE DAILY BRIEFING ON AMERICAN POLITICS --- Updated Each Morning At 11:30 (c) The American Political Network, Inc. 282 North Washington Street, Falls Church, VA (703) 237-5130 FREE AT LAST, ROLLINS ROLLIN' SPOTLIGHT '90 GOP turnout worst since Watergate; sees second "budget JOCKEYING ON CA FREEWAY fiasco" in '91; urges GOP shift from annihilation to attrition, With 1996 implications with "kamikaze" mentality. (#4) for both national tickets: SENATE SEAT I: First poll REDISTRICTING ROUNDUP (#5) shows Feinstein lead over FL: Hutto CD softened for GOP? Seymour -- but only 36%/25% MO: Horn VOWS re-election bid. ("someone else" gets 11%). MT: Williams "early favorite." Rep. Boxer is said to be NY: Green-Weiss "showdown"? considering challenging TX: Suburban Houston GOP CD? Feinstein for this seat, VA: Wilder faces NAACP push. given odds against women winning both seats. (#15) NOT IN MY HOUSE: BIGFOOT RULES SENATE SEAT II: Jerry The Majority and Minority Brown quits as CA Dem chair Leaders of the House (MO 03 and to prepare run for Cranston IL 18) have lost constituents seat (with Party post and could face redistricting favored to go to Willie peril, right? Fat chance. (#6) Brown candidate). (#16) THE GOV: Wilson is more NH SEN: RUDMAN STILL UNDECIDED popular (favorables at 65%) Gregg, Dems await move. (#12) than his budget. (#17) RACE & GENDER GAP ON WAR (#21) ALSO: DCCC's Francis says Should U.S. "begin diplomatic CA has 20 competitive House steps now" or "start a ground seats in '92 (#4). Late CA war without initiating any redistricting czar Burton diplomatic activity first?" keeps drawing lines, this MEN WOM WHT BLK one from Ed Rollins (#7). DIPLOMACY NOW 49% 65 56 78 San Francisco Mayor (#18). GROUND WAR 45 26 37 21 QUOTE OF THE DAY "The mother of all political battles" -- Insider label for a possible California Senate primary between Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer, Jerry Roberts, SAN FRANCISCO CHRONICLE, 2/5 (#15) (c) 1991 by the American Political Network, Inc. Any reproduction -- by photocopy, FAX, or other form -- in whole or in part, is a violation of federal law and is strictly prohibited without the consent of APN. All rights reserved. HOTLINE/DATABASE INDEX WHITE HOUSE '92 POWELL: "For a superior America: Powell, '96." (#1) QUAYLE: The QDL -- Quayle anti-defamation league. (#2) CUOMO: Budget proposal weighed in 1992 context. (#3) FOCUS NRCC: Rollins keeps going out with a bang. (#4) REDISTRICTING STATE REPORT: FL, MO, MT, NY, TX, VA. (#5) NOT IN MY HOUSE: Gephardt and Michel survive redistricting. (#6) PHIL BURTON: Still drawing lines. (#7) HOTSPOTS AZ: Sting. (#8) FL: Chiles under fire for sexist remarks. (#9) MD: Schaefer in deep S--- over remark. (#10) MA: Conte recovers from blood clot. (#11) NH: Rudman in '92? Still undecided. (#12) TX: Hightower to head alliance opposing S&L bailout. (#13) WA: Senate leader may challenge Gardner in '92. (#14) CALIFORNIA CABLE SENATE. WATCH: Brown retires as Dem chair for run. (#15) DEM CHAIR: Angelides, Fine square off to replace Brown. (#16) POLL: Wilson more popular than his budget plan. (#17) S.F. MAYOR: Agnos team together; Jordan has early $uccess. (#18) CAMPAIGNS '91 AZ GOV: Symington, assessor fought over property values. (#19) LA GOV: Duke late on 3 years of tax payments. (#20) POLL UPDATE Public says negotiate while war goes on (but gender gap) (#21) TV MONITOR (#22) Budget reax ... aid to the states ... war round-up. ???? OVERLOOKED ???? Harken Energy Corp. of Dallas, TX, which has an exclusive oil concession with the Persian Gulf "island sheikdom" of Bahrain, also has George W. Bush as its director. -- courtesy of Curtis Lang, VILLAGE VOICE, 2/5 issue. WHITE HOUSE '92 *1 POWELL: "FOR A SUPERIOR AMERICA: POWELL, '96" That's the '96 presidential slogan "already in the can" for Gen. Colin Powell (?), according to BOSTON GLOBE's Derrick Jackson -- and, "If the United States wins the war, no figure stands to gain more political ground." Powell is "perfect for these militaristic times perfect for these telegenic times perfect for these racial times Some analysts predict that Doug Wilder, a more conservative African-American, might get on the Democratic ticket." But a victorious Powell on the GOP ticket "could make the Democrats gag. Powell can talk immigrant talk. His parents are from Jamaica. He can talk bootstrap. He rose from a C college average to a master's degree in business administration. He can talk macho patriot talk. He has a Purple Heart. He can talk black talk. He always credits his position to the struggle of African-Americans long gone." And Powell "can talk leadership." The National Assn. of Black Journalists, with many members "highly critical of the Reagan-Bush era, gave Powell a standing ovation at a 1989 speech, and Jesse Jackson said Powell is a man of "discipline and insight." GLOBE's Jackson adds, "Many white people, and even some hard-boiled racists, will accept Powell because his authority is invested in carrying out U.S. government policy" (2/3). BUT BEFORE '96 Talk of Powell as VP in '92 "has become so rampant that pundits and pollsters in both parties are now pondering the possibilities. It is "on the minds of many Republican political operatives -- though doubtless not as much as it is on the mind of Vice President Dan Quayle, who has won the dubious distinction as the most joked about public figure of 1990. Powell's extraordinary popularity also must be gnawing at Secretary of State James A. Baker III, who for months has been reported to be harboring ambitions of dislodging Quayle as Bush's running mate on the 1992 ticket as a steppingstone to running for president in 1996" (Michael Kilian, CHICAGO TRIBUNE, 2/3). On "McLaughlin Group" this weekend, Fred Barnes predicted, "The clamor for President Bush to replace Vice President Quayle next year with General Colin Powell will rise, and rise, and rise -- but Bush will stick with Quayle" (2/2). *2 QUAYLE: THE QDL -- QUAYLE ANTI-DEFAMATION LEAGUE Unveiled at a surprise birthday party for the 44-year old VP was a new "grass-roots" organization, Friends of Dan Quayle. Newly-elected pres. John Piper: "We think this party is going to lend us a lot of credibility. We want a new grass-roots group we can call upon when we see something in the media we disagree with or find unfair. And we're going to pepper the papers with letters to the editor" (Donnie Radcliffe, WASH. POST, 2/5). N.Y. DAILY NEWS' Lars-Erik Nelson reports the BBC last Friday reported: "Quayle was unable to avoid the direct question from his interviewer" and "refused to rule out nuclear weapons as an option" in the Gulf "if Iraq uses unconventional weapons" (2/3). *3 CUOMO: BUDGET PROPOSAL WEIGHED IN '92 CONTEXT C.S. MONITOR's Lucia Mouat examines Cuomo's budget proposal and compares NY's '91 fiscal situation with that of MA and Dukakis after the '88 election. Cuomo "has built a different case from that of Mr. Dukakis for his own personal strengths. [He] emphasizes his leadership qualities rather than his managerial ability. Unlike Dukakis, Cuomo has not singled out his state as a lone success story for which he takes credit. Also, conditions surrounding the 1992 race are likely to be far different from those of four years before." Barnard College's Demetrios Caraley: "Anyone running against him might question why he allowed deficits to occur when there was still prosperity and why he borrowed money, rolling over the debts rather than liquidating them.' NYU's Mitchell Moss, on '92: "It's the incumbent's race to lose. The governor would not be judged on his performance on the [NY] economy. I think the best Cuomo can do is take charge of the state economy and maintain a low profile on the war" (2/4). "By limiting the tax increases he proposes and largely handling the deficit through spending cuts, Cuomo may answer those who say he can't be president because he is just another tax-and-spend liberal Democrat" (Rex Smith, NEWSDAY, 2/4). N.Y. POST's Ray Kerrison criticizes Cuomo for proposing to sell Aqueduct racetrack for $200 million, "with $100 million of the procêeds going to [NY] to help plug Cuomo's horrendous $6 billion budget gap" (2/4). FOCUS *4 NRCC: ROLLINS KEEPS GOING OUT WITH A BANG Ed Rollins, Co-chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, who last week announced his imminent departure for the Sawyer-Miller consulting firm, continued his public advice to the party with remarks yesterday to the American Association of Political Consultants (re-broadcast on C-SPAN 2/4). Facing in 1992 "the most important election for Republicans in 40 years, II Rollins said the party was in serious trouble -- with '90 voting turnout being the lowest among Republicans since the Watergate year of 1974. The three GOP national committees, he said, have sucked $1B in contributions to Washington and "just like we complain about the Democrats" spent it on Washington projects, leaving the local parties barren. His answer: "I would level all three buildings and start from scratch" -- replacing the politics of "annihilation" in one election with the politics of "attrition" through a 2-4-6-8 year plan that stresses local coalition building. But he said for the party "to make the jump back to coalition politics, we have to have a bigger disaster than we've had" -- probably in 1996 or later. Saying that "Members of Congress don't have a clue what goes on at the Committee," Rollins cited Rep. Newt Gingrich as the only one who thinks 20 hours a day about how to win a majority: "His 20 hours a day generally take 10 hours of my day, but I wish there were 150 more like him." Predicting another "budget fiasco the end of this year, he said he was reminded of one Buffalo Republican who complained that "Nixon lied to us about Watergate, Reagan lied to us about Iran-Contra, and now Bush has lied to us about taxes." 1992 HOUSE RACES: New DCCC Executive Director Les Francis told the AAPC meeting that there could be as many as 100 competitive House races in 1992 (3 or 4 times the normal number) -- including 20 in California alone. Rollins agreed on the 100 number, and said that (unlike last year) the Republicans should recruit "outsiders" who could say they had nothing to do with what happened in Washington or Sacramento -- unlike the local office-holder types they have sought in the past. "We should want people who are hungry -- and we should promise them nothing but a year of hell." He said winning required a kind of "kamikaze" mentality -- and repeatedly cited Rep. Ron Santorum (R-PA-18) who knocked on 18,000 doors in his surprise '90 upset of Dem Rep. Doug Walgren (C-SPAN, 2/4). REDISTRICTING *5 STATE REPORT FL (+4) : Rep. Earl Hutto (D-01), who beat GOPer Terry Ketchel by "a relatively thin" 4.4% in '90, is a Dem "weak point" for '92 (Dave Bruns, TALLAHASSEE DEMOCRAT). Hutto's CD "has too many people. Tens of thousands of voters will have to be lopped off. to make sure Hutto's Bay County home remains in the district, map-drawers might have to trim off some of the heavily Democratic rural areas near the Alabama border Worse, Hutto lost Okaloosa County in 1990 by 5,000 votes. In a 1992 district, Okaloosa would play a bigger role -- bad news for Earl" (2/3). Ketchel is expected to run against Hutto again. MO (0) New-Rep. Joan Kelly Horn (D-02) "is trying to halt recent speculation that she might run for the U.S. Senate next year if the boundary lines of her 2nd District are not to her liking after redistricting" (Mark Schlinkmann, ST. LOUIS POST- DISPATCH). Horn spokesperson Judi Roman "says Horn has no intention" of challenging Sen. Kit Bond (R) in '92 "and will run for re-election no matter what the lines turn out to be" (2/3). For more on Horn, see interview with Schlinkmann below. MT (-1) : With the state losing one of its two CDs, Rep. Pat Williams (D-01) would start out "as the early favorite" against Rep. Ron Marlenee (R-02) for the new at-large CD, as Williams' current CD is the more populous. A GREAT FALLS TRIBUNE poll from 12/90 showed Williams beating Marlenee 51-37%. The match-up, however, may not occur as Williams is also said to be considering a run for Gov. in '92 (POLITICAL REPORT, 2/1 issue). NY (-3) : "All along the theory has been that the three- district reduction would be accomplished by eliminating the seat of a Democrat -- Scheuer [D-08-Queens] -- and the seat of a Republican in western [NY]. The third seat would be eliminated in a so-called 'fair fight' matching incumbents from each party somewhere in the Hudson Valley. But the new census numbers could push that 'fair fight' into Manhattan, and set up a showdown" between Reps. Bill Green (R-15) and Ted Weiss (D-17) (Maurice Carroll, NEWSDAY, 1/29). TX (+3) : "Census figures suggest" that if the Houston area were to get one of the new CDs, "it will be a mostly Anglo area in the north-northwest suburbs -- one likely to elect a Republican. Potential GOP candidates include state Sen. Don Henderson and state District Judge Ted Pole (HOU. CHRON., 2/3). VA (+1) The VA NAACP is heading up a drive to create a black-majority CD in the Hampton Roads area and the group "believes it has a friend in the Executive Mansion" even though Gov. Doug Wilder (D) has emphasized his opposition to the concept (Michael Hardy, RICHMOND POST-DISPATCH). Wilder spokesperson Laura Dillard "insisted" Wilder has neither met with the VA NAACP about redistricting nor changed his public position against such a CD. UVA's Larry Sabato explained that Wilder can't lose among fellow Dems by being against a minority CD: "Doug figures the odds are that there will be a black [CD] and that the courts or the Department of Justice will "create" it for him." The VA Leg. will redraw CDs "in mid-November" (2/3). *6 NOT IN MY HOUSE: GEPHARDT AND MICHEL SURVIVE REDISTRICTING Kathleen Best and Fred Lindecke, reporters for the ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH, cover the districts of House Majority Leader Richard Gephardt (MO 03) and Minority Leader Bob Michel (IL 18). NOTE: Until recently, Michel was considered likely to retire after this term. HOTLINE: What's likely to happen in the redistricting of Democrats Dick Gephardt (03), Bill Clay (01) and Joan Horn (02) ? LINDECKE: Horn is the odd lady out. She's got the Majority Leader of the House and a potential presidential candidate on one side of her, and you've got the dean of the Missouri delegation, who's black and who's the only committee chairman we have in the state delegation on the other side of her. As a freshman who got on by 54 votes, she doesn't have the stick to tell those guys to move on. She made one visit to [state legislators in] Jefferson city, and that set off a round of stories about how she wanted to get a piece of the western part of the city of St. Louis to gain some Democratic votes. From the scuttlebutt I hear, the Democrats in the Missouri legislature are taking their lead from Gephardt and Clay. All of black legislators from St. Louis have to take their leadership from Clay. Four years ago, Gephardt had enough influence in the Missouri legislature that they created a Missouri presidential primary just to try to give him an advantage on Super Tuesday. That's the kind of influence that Gephardt has in the legislature. HOTLINE: Aren't Gephardt and Clay safe enough to give Horn a transfusion of Democrats? LINDECKE: Both of them are down, so they have to gain population -- mainly Clay. If either one goes the wrong direction, he picks up Republican votes. So the only thing that can happen is that they take what Democratic votes are in Horn's district and leave the district more Republican. Are their margins big enough that they can afford to give some away? That attitude on the part of either one of them has not surfaced yet. HOTLINE: Gephardt's re-election margin was down to 57% last year. How safe is his district the way it's drawn right now? LINDECKE: His margin was down, but he was never in any trouble against his Republican opponent, who didn't have any money. In Washington, he's regarded as liberal enough to get elected majority leader, and he took liberal stances in order to run for president. But some of the things he's been doing nationally can hurt him in the district. He's got three jurisdictions: the southern part of St. Louis, the southern part of St. Louis County, and Jefferson County, which is the suburban county immediately south of the St. Louis area. And a Jefferson County Democrat is the same thing as a Republican. He is able, because of his leadership positions and his presidential aspirations, to take more liberal positions in the Washington environment than he does when he comes back here. But if you fool with his district too much and give him Republican areas in southwestern St. Louis County, the area next door Too much of that, and he'll get some young, handsome Republican [opponent] who can attract major financing and big Party backing, say $500,000. [Then] Gephardt could be scrambling. HOTLINE: Will Rep. Bob Michel (R-18) survive redistricting? BEST: When I was writing about redistricting back in September, one of the points of the story was that Michel was in trouble. The most likely scenario before Madigan left was that Lane Evans and Michel would end up in the same district and would have to run against each other. I don't think it would have been a walkaway for either one of them. There are nine downstate districts; six are Democrat, three are Republican. The current thinking is that Illinois will lose one downstate district, because downstate has lost population, and one in the city, because the city has lost population. If the Democrats draw the map, the target downstate would be to combine the three Republican districts into two. Had they done that, Michel's district would have been the most vulnerable, because it's got some major Democratic population centers. Michel got a huge favor from Bush when Bush nominated Ed Madigan as Ag Secretary. It pretty much assured that Michel gets to keep his district in one form or another. With Madigan gone, Michel and Dennis Hastert will probably end up dividing some of his territory. Michel may lose some territory to the South, but there's too much Republican territory for him to lose a district that he could win in easily. HOTLINE: How close have Michel's re-election margins been? BEST: His closest race was in 1982 under the new map. The margin was below 55%. Since then, he has not had any problems. HOTLINE: Is there evidence that Madigan's appointment, or his pursuit of the appointment, had to do with redistricting? BEST: I wrote a couple of stories about it, and people would say, "We don't have any proof of this, but it sure helps Michel out. I couldn't get anybody to tell me that Michel had gone to the White House and lobbied for it, but it so clearly made things easier for the Republicans in Illinois that I'm sure that it had to be a factor. It took care of a problem. *7 PHIL BURTON STILL DRAWING LINES This one from the NRCC's Ed Rollins on the CA redistricting czar of days gone by: "I respect the memory of Phil Burton, but I hope the son-of-a-bitch is buried in a grave an inch deep spread over every one of the 45 districts" he created. (C-SPAN 2/4) BOOK COMING: John Jacobs is on leave from the SAN FRANCISCO EXAMINER for most of the year writing a bio of late Rep. Phil Burton. Anecdotes, experiences, correspondence -- wants to hear from you. Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley, Moses Hall, Berkeley CA 94720 or (415) 642-1474. HOTSPOTS *8 ARIZONA: STING State Rep. Don Kenney (R) "and 20 other lawmakers, lobbyists and others are under investigation" in what is being called "a political-corruption 'sting. Kenney "was removed Monday as chairman of the Judiciary Committee House Speaker Jane Hull [R] said Kenney asked to be replaced. The operation, which began in early 1990, featured an undercover agent who called himself 'J. Anthony Vincent.' 'Vincent' posed as a shady gaming consultant, flashed tens of thousands of dollars in cash, and said he was interested in getting casino gambling legalized in [AZ]. Ex-Gov. Sam Goddard (D) "said he met with 'Vincent' in September 'and I knew immediately that this guy was bad news. He could gave had it written on his forehead.' Goddard said 'Vincent' was brought to his office by George Stragalas, a former [Dem] candidate for state treasurer, to talk about legalized gambling. Goddard: "The minute he walked in with Stragalas I knew something was wrong. This guy just looked too bad. I told him he was in the wrong state talking to the wrong guy I mean, everything was wrong about the man. I told every [Dem] I knew out at the legislature to stay away from the damn guy and they wouldn't listen to me." Stragalas last week said "that 'Vincent' had been active in his campaign." Goddard said, "Phoenix police also served a search warrant on [Dem] headquarters this weekend. 'What they wanted was a list of donors to the party. Vincent also "made overtures to the Republican Party, appearing at one function where he made a cash donation to gubernatorial candidate Fife Symington's campaign." Symington manager Bunny Badertscher "said that as early as September rumors were circulating about the suspicious-looking man who looked like something out of central casting for a Mafia movie. When Symington's people heard the rumors, they returned 'Vincent's' donation." Vincent "also tried to gain the confidence of Rep. Jack Jewett of Tucson, and of Tony West, who was in the middle of a successful campaign for state treasurer. Both suspected 'Vincent' of being dishonest and reported their suspicions to then-[AG] Robert Corbin. The Department of Public Safety conducted a brief investigation to learn who 'Vincent' was, but could not find out. Phoenix police did not let DPS know there was a 'sting' operation" (Collier/Yozwiak, ARIZONA REPUBLIC, 2/5). *9 FLORIDA: CHILES UNDER FIRE FOR SEXIST REMARKS Gov. Lawton Chiles's (D) remark that women are the "weaker sex" (see HOTLINE 2/1 #9) has drawn differing criticisms: "Oh, we know you're 60 years old and a Southern gentleman. women today don't like being patronized. it reveals a sexist mindset inappropriate for a governor in 1991 [W]hat worries women is that your spoken level is likely the level you'll act from. I doubt you're genuinely sexist. you have appointed several women as agency heads you just need some consciousness raising" (Fran Hathaway, PALM BEACH POST, 2/3). ST. PETERSBURG TIMES editorial: "Chiles deserves all the hastising he's getting It was a colossally dumb and sexist thing to say. But now, punishment having been meted it is time to appreciate a phenomenon greater than the governor's foot- in-mouth problem. Chiles, unlike Martinez, knows how important it is for health clinics to be where the students are. Chiles recognizes that a faltering economy has more parents unable to afford doctors for their children Perhaps most telling, Chiles is willing to communicate in an effective way to the students about sex" (2/4). "One night, as I lay in a feverish state, a series of visions came upon me. First I dreamed that my hero had decreed that every single one of his lieutenants would make $98,000 a year. 'Lies' I shouted to myself. on the heels of the first vision came a second: Chiles, who had campaigned against 'politics as usual',' had begun keeping a 'report card' on state department heads to make sure they were giving jobs to his campaign supporters. Quickly came a third vision: Chiles announced that the percentage of lottery money that goes to education will stay the same, although as a candidate he had called the lottery a 'hoax'. I could bear no more. And yet, I forced myself to watch as Chiles described women as 'the weaker sex'. Enough! I sat bolt upright drenched in the sweat of terror. Somehow, I fell back into sleep. Suddenly Chiles was in my bedchamber. He was advancing upon me He laughed : an evil, mournful laugh and reached for something at his neck and pulled away -- a mask! Oh, would that I had died ere seeing that awful truth. Beneath that waxen mask was none other than -- Bob Martinez" (Howard Troxler, TAMPA TRIBUNE, 2/4). *10 MARYLAND: SCHAEFER IN DEEP S--- OVER REMARK MD GOP Chair Joyce Lyons Terhes joined by all nine GOP chairs from the Eastern Shore counties in demanding that Gov. William Donald Schaefer (D) "apologize to the people of the Eastern Shore for 'a crude and offensive reference to the shore and its people. Schaefer reportedly told a group of legislators at the Saturday swearing-in of the MD Treasurer, "How's the s---House of the Eastern Shore?" (see HOTLINE 2/4 #9). Schaefer lost seven of the nine shore counties in 11/90. Terhes: "Is the Eastern Shore going to get a fair shake for the next four years? I wouldn't bet Schaefer's salary increase on that" (MD GOP release, 2/4). *11 MASSACHUSETTS: CONTE RECOVERS FROM BLOOD CLOT Rep. Silvio Conte (R-01) is "recovering" at NIH, "where he had a blood clot removed from the right side of his brain" 2/1. NIH "would not list his condition." Conte, 69, awakened 2/1 with "flulike symptoms and the began to experience a loss of feeling in his left hand. He was rushed to NIH for immediate surgery. His recuperation is expected to last through the February Presidents Day congressional recess" (Conconi, W. POST, 2/5). *12 NEW HAMPSHIRE: RUDMAN IN '92? STILL UNDECIDED Sen. Warren Rudman (R) "said despite rumors to the contrary, he remains genuinely undecided" about whether he will seek a 3rd term in 1992 (Kevin Landrigan, NASHUA TELEGRAPH). Rudman: "I truly have not made up my mind whether I want to serve another six-year term. I realize this is a decision I will have to make before the end of the year and I will." Many political observers believe Rudman would run again, "noting his appearances back in the state -- both campaign-related and non-political -- were stepped up" in '90. Gov. Judd Gregg (R) said "he would likely seek a 3rd, two-year term as [Gov] next year in part because he figured Rudman would run again in 1992. Many prominent Dems said they would consider running in '92 "only if Rudman stepped down." Political "antennae" went up when it was announced earlier last week that Rudman had accepted a seat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, an appointment which requires an eight-year term limit. Rudman: "I accepted that appointment because it is indeed an honor to serve on the Senate Intelligence Committee, period.' In '85, Rudman "likewise did not come to his decision to run again easily" (2/4). *13 TEXAS: HIGHTOWER TO HEAD ALLIANCE OPPOSING S&L BAILOUT Ex-Agriculture Commissioner Jim Hightower (D) has been named chair of a "national populist alliance" opposing the federal government's bailout of S&Ls. The Financial Democracy Campaign (FDC) will be "organizing against a massive deregulation of banks" toward which the Bush administration seems headed, FDC spokeswoman Denise Mitchell said. Hightower called for a "surtax of limited duration -- until the cleanup is completed -- on those who profited in the 1980s and who can afford to pay -- the wealthiest 1 or 2 percent of Americans." FDC co-chairs include Jesse Jackson, Ralph Nader, ex-WI Sen. candidate Ed Garvey (D) and ex-NM Gov. Toney Anaya (D) (AUSTIN AMERICAN-STATESMAN, 2/4). SAN ANTONIO TERM LIMITS? A citizens' group has collected enough voter signatures to force a 5/4 referendum on whether to limit city council members to two terms. The ballot proposal, which must first pass muster with the Justice Department, would bar any council member who had received two, two-year terms from seeking re-election in 1993. At least two city council members have said they would fight to keep the issue off the ballot. Council member Joe Webb calls the petition "a back door effort" to oust certain council members (AUSTIN AMERICAN-STATESMAN, 2/4). *14 WASHINGTON: SENATE LEADER MAY CHALLENGE GARDNER IN '92 A GOP property tax relief bill "appeared close to death" in the Dem-controlled House. The bill is caught in bipartisan gridlock with the GOP-controlled Senate wanting to tax the middle class and the Dem-controlled House wanting to protect the middle class and themselves by quickly offering an alternative. With a recently disputed tax relief bill, Sen. Ways and Means chair Dan McDonald (R), "a potential" '92 gov. candidate, "knows that he has put" House Speaker Joe King, "a prospective [Dem] candidate for governor or some other higher post, in a difficult position." Gov. Booth Gardner (D) "likely" to seek a third term, has found no clear path to follow on the issue" (SEATTLE POST- INTELLIGENCER, 2/5). CALIFORNIA CABLE *15 SENATE. WATCH: BROWN RETIRES AS DEM CHAIR FOR RUN Ex-Gov. Jerry Brown resigned yesterday as CA Dem chair "to explore a likely bid for the U.S. Senate. In an interview, Brown said he plans to run a 'grassroots campaign' for Senate, with 'lots of people involved -- as many as thousands of people as possible'' (Susan Yoachum, S.F. CHRONICLE). In a letter to the party, Brown wrote, "I am stepping down because my supporters are establishing an exploratory Senate campaign committee for a Senate bid in 1992. Since the demands of being party chair and a potential candidacy are in conflict, I believe the only appropriate course is to resign as chair." Brown will officially step down at the 3/1-3 Dem state convention in Oakland (2/5). BOXER REBELLION: The "most intriguing rumor of the week" has Rep. Barbara Boxer (D-06) challenging ex-S.F. mayor Dianne Feinstein for the Dem nomination to face appointed GOP Sen. John Seymour. Insiders have labeled the scenario "the mother of all political battles" (Jerry Roberts, CHRONICLE). The theory is Boxer "would conclude that [CA] voters are unlikely to elect two therefore challenge Feinstein instead of running in a crowded and women from [S.F.] as their U.S. Senate representatives male field" for the six-year Cranston seat. "Because primary voters tend to be more liberal than [Dems] as a group, Boxer might portray the centrist Feinstein as an arriviste Republican- in-Democrat clothing while running on the left and emphasizing her years of service to the party's environmental and feminist causes. Boxer manager Ed McGovern, "acknowledging that 'it's not out of the realm of possibility,' said Boxer 'will continue to weigh the relative merits" of running for the two-year Seymour or six-year Cranston seat (2/5). FIRST '92 POLL: The L.A. TIMES poll, conducted 1/26-29, surveyed 1,482 RVs, M/E +/- 4%. Feinstein 36% Someone else Seymour 11% 25 No opinion 28 Seymour "is hardly a household word. Asked to name [CA's] two U.S. senators, only 8% of the voters could cite Seymour." But only 48% could name Cranston, a senator for 22 years. "When voters were read Seymour's name and asked their general impression of him, only 1 in 5 knew enough about the senator to venture an opinion. of those who did, the result was 3 to 1 favorable." Feinstein's popularity "seems basically the same" as 10/90, during her run for gov., with a rating of 52% favorable to 36% unfavorable (Skelton, LAT, 2/4). *16 DEM CHAIR: ANGELIDES, FINE SQUARE OFF TO REPLACE BROWN Sacramento developer/Dem fund-raiser Phil Angelides and S.F. atty./CA Dem controller Mitch Fine are vying to replace Brown. "After winning the all-important blessing of Brown, among other key players, Angelides looked like a sure bet Speaker Willie horse resolution, calling for a $7 million grass-roots It also didn't hurt that Angelides sponsored a stalking organization plan, and then hired a small army of political consultants to help him get it passed by statewide [Dem] district caucuses several weeks ago. In launching his campaign, Fine managed to re-ignite one of the longest-simmering debates among [Dems] -- whether the party should work primarily to protect the interests of state incumbents and other elected officials or devote itself to building grass-roots organizations that address more local concerns." Fine "is starting to hear from some influential [Dems] who are pressuring him to clear the field and let Angelides, a proven big bucks fund-raiser, finish Brown's four-year term" (Roberts, CHRONICLE, 2/5). *17 POLL: WILSON MORE POPULAR THAN HIS BUDGET PLAN The L.A. TIMES surveyed 1,986 CA adults (including 1,482 registered voters) 1/26-29, margin of error 3% (RVs, 4%) (2/4). NOW 10/90 FAV / UNFAV FAV / UNFAV Gov. Pete Wilson (R) 65% / 21% 54% / 34% Speaker Willie Brown (D) 24% / 36% WILSON'S JOB RATING: Approve 41% / Disapprove 12% ALSO: Californians "highly regard" Wilson but "oppose his plans to cut benefits for welfare mothers and deny cost-of-living increases for schools. The public also objects to most of Wilson's tax increase ideas, accepting only his proposals to raise levies on liquor and extend the sales tax to candy and snack foods. People obviously want it all -- no spending cuts or major tax increases. They clearly will not be able to have that One major task confronting Wilson is to persuade the public that the state budget deficit is serious enough to warrant spending cuts and tax increases." Respondents were asked to name the "most important problem facing" CA today: Crime/drugs, water shortage, education, and the budget deficit. In 9/90, 68% said they would support a tax hike for a specific purpose, such as education or crime fighting. Now "that figure has fallen to 56%, with education, crime, environmental protection, health care and the homeless drawing the most support for new tax dollars, in that order. Welfare ranks at the bottom of the priority list" (LAT, 2/4) *18 S.F. MAYOR: AGNOS TEAM TOGETHER; JORDAN HAS EARLY $UCCESS S.F. Mayor Art Agnos "has quietly reassembled most of the key players responsible for his smashing 1987 win, including chief strategist Richie Ross, field director Larry Tramutola and fund-raiser Tom Isaak. S.F. consultant Mary Hughes has been added and "will act as day-to-day campaign manager. " Agnos' opponent is ex-S.F. police chief Frank Jordan. Jordan manager Jack Davis "is still effusing over the unexpectedly enthusiastic response to their campaign kick-off fund-raiser this week, which brought in $85,000." Davis: "There's a great reservoir of anti- Agnos sentiment in this town. Frank has an incredible potential to tap into it" (Roberts, CHRONICLE, 2/5). CAMPAIGNS '91 *19 ARIZONA GOV: SYMINGTON, ASSESSOR FOUGHT OVER PROPERTY VALUES Developer Fife Symington (R) has "consistently protested the values placed on his commercial properties for tax purposes" (Mary Jo Pitzl, ARIZONA REPUBLIC). Symington claimed 11 properties owned by several Symington-run partnerships are valued at $64.7 million for the '90 tax year, yet the Maricopa Co. Assessor's Office says the properties are worth $120.1 million. In the past, Symington has succeeded in getting his assessments lowered, "records indicate a pattern of annual appeals on most of his properties, with many protests dating to the first year a building was put on the tax rolls." He said the successful appeals in the past "[are] proof that the county assessor is not always right." Maricopa Co. Assessor Ira Friedman said "that property owners who successfully fight their assessment transfer some tax burden onto the rest of county's taxpayers." Friedman: "Someone is getting taken. ... Either the lender has been dealt a tough blow (because he's lent too much for a property) or the taxpayers are." Yet, a spokesperson for the AZ Tax Research Assn. "said one man's lowered property taxes do not necessarily mean more taxes for everyone else." Ex-Phoenix Mayor Terry Goddard (D) said the tax issue would raise some "conflict-of- interest" questions if [Symington] were elected, particulary since "the governor appoints members to the state Tax Board of Appeals. Some of Symington's partnerships have protested their taxes up to this board, usually with success.' Some Tax appraisers believe "it is common practice to value property at a low rate when protesting taxes but to give a higher figure when seeking a loan,' while others say "it is wrong to vary a property's value depending on its use" (2/4). *20 LOUISIANA GOV. DUKE LATE ON THREE YEARS OF TAX PAYMENTS State Rep. David Duke (R) has "failed to pay property taxes on his Metairie home for three of the past five years, according to Jefferson Parish sheriff's records. Through 1/31, "Duke owed the parish $2,857.17 for property taxes in 1987, 1989, and 1990" (Tyler Bridges, New Orleans TIMES-PICAYUNE) Tax specialist Bubby Gauthreaux, said of Duke's failure to pay in '87, "in about six months Duke's home could be seized and sold by the sheriff's office." When contacted on 2/1, Duke said he paid his taxes, but later admitted, "I'm going to pay my property taxes. I want to pay every penny in taxes that I owe." Duke's home also serves as "the office for the National Association for the Advancement of White People, the white supremacist group he formed in 1980." Duke has faced questions of tax matters in the past; as TIMES- PICAYUNE reported last year that Duke did not file state income taxes from '84-'87 (2/2). ROEMER: Talk that Gov. Buddy Roemer (D) was being approached by the GOP "erupted [2/1] with a group of GOP anti- abortion activists saying it would fight any effort by Roemer to seek re-election as a Republican" (Hill/Traylor, GANNET NEWS SERVICE). Keith Hall, chair of the East Baton Rouge Parish GOP, led a group of 20 people in a press conference, stating Roemer "torpedoed anti-abortion legislation last year, increased state spending and raised taxes." Hall: "If he joins the party as an unrepentant liberal, he will find the 'liberal [GOP] caucus' to be a very lonely place." Roemer "a conservative Democrat who is not active in his own party, called rumors that he was switching parties 'fantasy' but acknowledged that he has had conversations with GOP representatives." Roemer: "I am very independent, and that has sometimes caused me grief with the Democratic Party. ... But as to whether or not I'm thinking about it; I'm not saying I'm thinking about it, and I'm not saying I'm not" (Monroe NEWS- STAR, 2/2). JONES ANNOUNCES: Mayor Sam Jones (D) of Franklin announced his candidacy for Gov. yesterday, 2/4. On 1/29, he stated, "The real bottom line is that ideas I have are the ideas people of the state want to hear about" (AP/Baton Rouge STATE-TIMES, 2/1). POLL UPDATE *21 PUBLIC SAYS NEGOTIATE WHILE WAR GOES ON (BUT GENDER GAP) 1009 Americans interviewed 1/30-2/3 by ICR Survey Research Group ("sponsored by Operation Real Security and the Vietnam Veterans of America, with private donor support"), margin of error +/- 3%. (Release, National Security News Service, 9:30AM 2/5) QUESTION: "As of now, do you think Saddam Hussein is fighting like it's a fight to the finish, or do you think he would like to get out of it if he could, without an all-out war?" ALL MEN WOM WHT BLK FIGHT TO THE FINISH 77% 73% 80% 77% 70% WOULD LIKE OUT 16 20 12 15 23 QUESTION: "According to the press, one Pentagon estimate predicted that 30,000 Americans will be killed if we start a ground war. Were you aware that losses could be that high?" ALL MEN WOM WHT BLK YES, AWARE 67% 73% 61% 68% 62% NO, NOT AWARE 31 25 36 30 36 QUESTION: "In World War II and the Vietnam War, there were negotiations with the enemy while the fighting went on. Do you think we should begin diplomatic steps now to try to end the war, or do you think we should start a ground war without initiating any diplomatic activity first?" ALL MEN WOM WHT BLK BEGIN DIPLOMATIC STEPS NOW 57% 49% 65% 56% 78% GROUND WAR WITHOUT DIPLOMACY 36% 45 26 37 21 NOTE: This question was asked two different ways to a split sample, reversing the order of the two options. The figures above reflect the combined response. When "begin diplomatic steps" was stated first the sample split 60%/37%; when "ground war without diplomacy" was put first the split sample still preferred "begin diplomatic steps" but by 55%/38%. QUESTION: "Which of these three statements comes closest to your opinion of what the United States should do next?" ALL MEN WOM WHT BLK "Start a ground war even if it cost 17% 23% 11% 17% 8% thousands of American lives" "Start a diplomatic effort to get 64 62 67 66 62 Iraq out of Kuwait while continuing the bombing if necessary" "Declare a temporary cease fire and 13 9 16 11 30 use economic sanctions and diplomacy to finish the job" TOTAL RESPONDENTS 1009 505 504 899 77 TV MONITOR *22 THIS MORNING: FOX's "Morning News" interviewed ex-NSC member Robert Hunter, MN GOV. Arne Carlson (R) and House Budget Comm. chair Leon Panetta (D-CA). ABC's "Good Morning America" interviewed AK Gov. Walter Hickel (I), ex-NJ Gov. Tom Kean and NEA Pres. Keith Geiger. Sen. Jim Sasser (D-TN): "I thought we gave capital gains a decent burial last year and let it rest in peace" (NBC). LAST NIGHT'S LINEUP: CNN's "Crossfire" hosted counter- terrorism consultant Paul Joyal, American Arab Anti- Discrimination Comm. Pres. Albert Mokhiber. PBS' "MacNeil/Lehrer" interviewed Gen. Norman Schwarzkopf and OMB director Richard Darman, Gov. James Florio (D-NJ), Gov. John Ashcroft (R-MO) on federal money to the states. BUDGET REAX: ABC's Peter Jennings: "Not much new money, just new ways to spend it" (ABC). CNN's Pam Olson: "Democrats at least didn't declare the $1.4 trillion budget dead on arrival as in previous years" (CNN). NBC's John Cochran: "The President's budget again calls for no new taxes. But this time, the president's men say, he means it" (NBC). OMB Dir. Darman on charges the administration economic scenario is overly rosy: "Our economic forecast is right in the dead center of most private economist's forecasts. It is not at all rosy Some people are saying that ours is a bit pessimistic" ("M/L," PBS). House Maj. Leader Richard Gephardt (D-MO) : "In one stroke, the President, in this budget, creates the largest deficit in history, it gives the wealthiest people in the country a huge tax cut, it makes huge cuts in the Medicare program" (NBC). Sen. Pete Domenici (R-NM) on last year's budget deal: "I do not think it will come apart It is not easy to tear it apart" (CNN). Sen. Sasser: "with war and recession staring us in the face, I would have to characterize this budget as a cross your fingers, close your eyes and hope for the best budget" (CNN). CBS' Bob Schieffer: "In truth, dreams seem to make up a large portion of the budgets that presidents have been sending to Congress lately, so while this one admits record deficits this year and next, the administration is already forecasting what Ronald Reagan once promised, balanced budgets -- after the next election" (CBS). DOMESTIC AGENDA: Rep. Leon Panetta (D-CA) "This is 10 years of the same indifference to domestic problems, the same misplaced priorities, the same concern for the interests of the well to do over the middle class and the working people of this country" (CNN). ABC's Rebecca Chase: "Most of these new initiatives for families and children are coming at the expense of existing programs for the poor.' HUD Sec. Jack Kemp: "HUD's resources can best serve low-income Americans by increasing the opportunity for home ownership and choice as opposed to building more government-owned government managed public housing projects." ABC's Chase: "For families and children then domestic spending remains relatively the same and despite claims of reforming the budget to be more fair to the poor programs that help low-income families are headed for some of the biggest cuts" (ABC). ABC's George Strait: "Congress is expected to resist the Medicare cuts directly affecting the elderly but it might agree to cuts affecting physicians. Many Members say the senior lobby has much more clout than the doctor lobby. $$$ TO THE STATES: CBS' Randall Pinkston: "President Bush's budget may be getting mixed reviews on Capitol Hill, but at least one proposal is a hit with the nation's governors. Mr. Bush told them today, he wants to give them federal money, without federal red tape. NJ Gov. Florio: "It's like trying to get 10 pounds of potatoes into a five pound bag." Pinkston: "Still even for skeptics like Florio, it comes down to this - - if there are federal dollars in the pipeline governors would rather decide themselves where the dollars go, not Washington" (CBS). Gov. Pete Wilson (R-CA) "We are now facing, in most of the states, a gap between revenues and expenditures that is unprecedented" (NBC). DEFENSE $$$: ABC's Bob Zelnick: "The Pentagon used the success of its high-technology weapons in the Gulf, like the Patriot missile, to request a major increase in funding for SDI to defend against ballistic missiles." Defense Sec. Cheney: "If anybody had any doubts about Stealth, they ought to look at the performance of the F-117 fighter bomber that has played such a crucial role in striking key targets in our operations against Saddam Hussein's forces" (ABC). IRAQ: NBC's Fred Francis: "For Saddam, hunkered down in a bunker in Baghdad, any length of time in Saudi Arabia, any U.S. combat deaths, no matter how severe his own losses, would be a grand political victory." NBC's John Dancy: "However this turns out, whether Saddam lives or dies, the United States cannot expect a tidy peace, even if it wins a clear military victory. And that's beginning to worry some people here " (NBC). Rep. Robert Dornan (R-CA) on terrorist attacks: "Our problem is the FBI is telling congressmen and Senators, behind the scenes, 'Be on your guard it's coming and it's going to be rough.' Then they go before the public and say, 'No problem, business as usual'" ("Crossfire, CNN). Fred Francis, quoting "Pentagon sources": "Expect Saddam once again to use environmental terrorism, dumping millions of barrels of oil into the Persian Gulf" (NBC). TV SOUNDBITE "The administration assumes our allies like Japan and Germany will contribute their fair share. If you believe these assumptions, I have a dream vacation in Baghdad I'd like to sell you." -- Rep. Bill Richardson (D-NM), mult., 2/4 --- Monday --- March 11, 1991 --- ###### ##### # # # # # ### ## ## ###### ##### ## ##### --- THE DAILY BRIEFING ON AMERICAN POLITICS --- Updated Each Morning At 11:30 (c) The American Political Network, Inc. 282 North Washington Street, Falls Church, VA (703) 237-5130 LA GOV: ROEMER SWITCHING SPOTLIGHT It's a "done deal." Roemer meets with state GOP chair, and RETREAT IN CHAOS called "prime" candidate for party's endorsement. (#20) Dems' Radio Baghdad calls them to Leesburg for "much SENATE. WATCH needed group therapy" (#11) FL: Schwarzkopf "not going but coordination is gone: to slam the door." (#13) GA: Message for Mr. Fowler. Cuomo's idea for message Bush sends Peace Corps Director is reduced to: "victory Coverdell to rally. (#14) does not necessarily mean SC: Hollings defends vote. that the decision to go to "In addition to waving yellow war was the best one" (#6). flags, I thought we ought to Nunn (#3) is reduced to wave our pocketbooks." (#18) GOP's "poster child of the MD: A clear and present 'appeasement Democrats." danger for Mikulski? (#16) On TV, Robb refuses to DEMS '92: WHO WANTS IT? say whether his ouster from GEPHARDT: Sources say he's Budget panel by Dems was "pulled the plug. (#1) "punishment for his [war] SILBER: Has "no ... vote"; he says it "reflects intention" of running. (#4) [Dems'] unhappiness with. GORE: He's "thinking very his insistence on fiscal seriously" about a run. (#2) restraint" (#2). Silber rips "my party's national POLL UPDATE leadership" for opposing TIME/CNN: BRING ON THE ECONOMY Bush on war vote (#4). 44% see an improving economy, with 15% expecting a turn for And in LA, Dems suffer a the worse. In 1/91, it was 43% major defection. (#20) to 19% -- the other way. (#24) QUOTE OF THE DAY "It's smart in the same way using Willie Horton was smart." -- Balto. EVENING SUN's Jack Germond on GOP's use of the war as a political issue, "McLaughlin Group," 3/9. (c) 1991 by the American Political Network, Inc. Any reproduction -- by photocopy, FAX, or other form -- in whole or in part, is a violation of federal law and is strictly prohibited without the consent of APN. All rights reserved. HOTLINE/DATABASE INDEX WHITE HOUSE '92 GEPHARDT: But is it worth giving up the Speakership? (#1) GORE/ROBB: They stand alone. (#2) NUNN: "Poster child of the 'appeasement Democrats. /11 (#3) SILBER: Says he's not running but some see door still ajar. (#4) TSONGAS: The Boston media has another candidate. (#5) CUOMO: Defends sanctions stance, attacks GOP. (#6) POWELL TO QUAYLE: Don't worry about me. (#7) FROM THE TUBE: Weekend warriors on the '92 watch. (#8) FOCUS COVER TO COVER: What's on the front of the newsmags. (#9) POST-IRAQ: New friends, old enemies. (#10) WAR POLITICS: The Dem "retreat." (#11) HOTSPOTS AZ: That's Hattie Babbitt we're talkin' about. (#12) FL: Don't run Norm; money before power, I say. (#13) GA: White House sends in Coverdell against Fowler? (#14) KS: Ex-GOP chair revives ties with Glickman. (#15) MD: Sen. Tom Clancy?; Dyson: teacher or Rep.? (#16) NY: Ex-Carter aide for D'Amato seat?; Dinkins re-run. (#17) SC: Hollings defends anti-war vote. (#18) CALIFORNIA CABLE L.A. POLICE BEATING: Should Gates go? (#19) CAMPAIGNS '91 LOUISIANA GOVERNOR: Roemer switching to GOP. (#20) KENTUCKY GOVERNOR: Jones & Wilkinson in "death dance. " (#21) TX-03: Bartlett resignation takes effect today. (#22) PHILADELPHIA MAYOR: Goode's choice "failed to unite." (#23) POLL UPDATE TIME/CNN: "Dramatic reversal" in attitudes on the economy. (#24) TV MONITOR (#25) Doestic agenda ... Baker in the Mideast ... Goat of the Week. ? ? ? ? OVERLOOKED ? ??? Buddy Roemer joins other big-time LA party-switchers, including: Sec/State Fox McKeithen, and state Sen. Ben Bagert, who won the GOP Senate endorsement in '90 and may run for AG this year. And don't forget former long-time Dem stalwart -- David Duke. WHITE HOUSE '92 *1 GEPHARDT: BUT IS IT WORTH GIVING UP THE SPEAKERSHIP? His "itch to be president is subdued for now by the risks of running. But it could be months before he decides for sure what he'll do in 1992" (Bill Lambrecht, ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH). "A flurry of meetings late last year and early in January left some of Gephardt's allies convinced that he was ready to run again ... All that died down when the war began. Planning had moved too swiftly for Gephardt's liking, sources say, so he 'pulled the plug. Gephardt adviser Dick Moe: "I don't think that he was inclined to run then, and I think that he is disinclined now." But said a "close ally": "He sees some circumstances under which he would run in 1992. He's a Boy Scout, and he wants to be prepared.' Gephardt said he wasn't running now "but he declined to rule out a candidacy": "I don't rule anything in or anything out and I'm not sitting here today saying I'll never run for president in the future. But my plan is to do this job, and that's what I'm doing." In his '89 race for majority leader, Gephardt vowed to remain in the post through the '92 campaign, yet "some who know [him] well think that if he were to become a candidate, he would resign his leadership job and aim single- mindedly at the presidency." Speaker Foley suggested Gephardt could keep his post while running, but "barring something resembling a draft from House members, anything short of a clean break from majority leader could invite the sort of flip-flop charges that helped derail his presidential candidacy four years ago." Also, Gephardt's likely ascension to speaker would be scuttled if he became the nominee as MO law does not allow a candidate to run for two offices at once. A Gephardt strategy requires he again win the IA caucuses, but he "probably would have to win overwhelmingly" there "or forget about" NH, where he finished 2nd to Dukakis in '88. Gephardt ran out of money last time, ensuring defeat on Super Tuesday. He plans to raise $300,000 to $400,000 at a DC $-raiser 3/20 (3/10). U.S. NEWS' David Gergen said Gephardt "told me this week he thinks he'll wait until the fall now before sorting that question out" ("MacNeil/Lehrer," PBS, 3/8). *2 GORE/ROBB: THEY STAND ALONE GORE: Michael Kinsley writes on the only two war supporters on the "list of likelies:" Robb and Gore. "I won't reveal a preference, except to say that Robb strikes me as having no original thoughts or genuine principles. [Gore] has the advantage of being named Al, like so many other players in the Bush-created New World Order: Al Sabah, Al Anbari, and so on" (NEW REPUBLIC, 3/25 issue). A Gore spokeswoman said "he is 'thinking very serioiusly' about a race" (Toner, N.Y. TIMES, 3/11). Fred Barnes: "The performance by Al Gore was breathtaking in it's intellectual dishonesty. If this war had gone poorly, Democrats would have been all over Bush like a cheap suit. And its perfectly legitimate for Republicans to use this issue." ("McLaughlin," NBC, 3/10). ROBB: "I have acknowledged that in presidential politics I think the [Dem] nominee who happened to take a position against the authorization of force is going to carry a heavier burden. that doesn't mean they're going to be disqualified, but I think there is a threshold qualification test for presidential nominees" (NBC, 3/10). Robb was removed from the Senate Budget Committee "by senior members in his own party, an unusual gesture that Robb says reflects unhappiness with his insistence on fiscal restraint" (Jenkins/Broder, W. POST, 3/11). On NBC's "Meet the Press, Robb was asked whether his removal was "punishment for his [war] vote,' he responded, "I don't really want to get into that; there's more there than meets the eye." When pressed later by Garrick Utley, Robb said, "If I were to suggest any particular role, I would suggest that it had to do with my unwillingness to report out a meaningless budget resolution" (3/10). *3 NUNN: "POSTER CHILD OF THE 'APPEASEMENT DEMOCRATS'" In the wake of his statement that he "cannot visualize any circumstances" for a pres. run, NEWSWEEK's Eleanor Clift rips him: On use of force, "many Democrats voted with him, believing he'd provide political cover. But his camouflage turned out to be mosquito netting." Bush "never forgave" Nunn for leading the opposition to John Tower as Defense Sec. "Bush pointedly did not consult Nunn during the months of planning that preceded Desert Storm, and he gave Nunn only an hour's notice last November on the decision to double U.S. troop strength in the gulf." Nunn "retaliated by holding public hearings that featured a parade of military witnesses opposing the early use of force ... Had the war gone badly, Nunn might still be a hero. Instead, his two decades as Mr. Defense are no protection against GOP efforts to make him the poster child of the 'appeasement Democrats.' At Bush's speech last week, Nunn could be spotted in the audience, wanly waving an American flag. the luster he enjoyed as the opposition's commander in chief is gone" (3/18 issue). *4 SILBER: SAYS HE'S NOT RUNNING BUT SOME SEE DOOR STILL AJAR He responded to a Friday's shocker: "Recent speculation in the press that I am planning to run for president is flattering but unfounded. I have no such intention." Although the BOSTON GLOBE (3/9) finds the statement decisive, the BOSTON HERALD notes Silber still "sketched a major role for himself on the national stage in a statement which, analysts said, still left the door ajar for a White House campaign. the carefully worded statement was viewed as an attempt to cool immediate speculation on Silber's ambitions -- while leaving him manuevering room for a less-public exploration of a White House run." In the statement, Silber said he was "very much concerned" about the Dem Party and that he would continue to speak out on issues: "I am saddened that so small a proportion of my party's national leadership supported authorizing the president to use force against Saddam Hussein." He went on to list a slew of problems on the domestic front. GOP analyst Todd Domke: "Silber's saying he has 'no intention' to run reminds me that Ted Kennedy said the same thing in 1980 just before he ran against Jimmy Carter. [But] I don't think Silber wanted to be linked in national presidential speculation with [ex-Sen. Paul] Tsongas, in some kind of quixotic Massachusetts Siamese twins disaster" (Woodlief/Wells/Fehrnstrom, 3/9). Speculation of a Silber bid revolves around two 3/14 debt retirement $-raisers in Boston. His 1,000/head invitation states that he wants to keep Citizens for Silber going "to allow me to continue to speak out on public issues that you and I care about, and to keep our options open." Silber has suggested A '94 gov. run. GLOBE's Robert Jordan writes if Paul Tsongas had entered the '90 gov. race first, "it is unlikely that Silber would have also been a candidate." Tsongas "may also have a negative impact on Silber's fund-raising abilities. a few key workers from Silber's campaign reportedly have made inquiries about working" for Tsongas (3/10). *5 TSONGAS: THE BOSTON MEDIA HAS ANOTHER CANDIDATE Under headline, "Don't write off Paul Tsongas too early," BOSTON GLOBE's Robert Jordan writes, "If the media focus on Tsongas' ethnic and geographic similarities to Dukakis, he can say to them that this is merely a confirmation of the media's own view that politics has become so shallow in recent years" (3/10). GLOBE's David Nyhan on Tsongas' "pro-business liberal" ideas: "The voters don't trust the [Dems] to run the economy, and they're right, he begins. We spend all our time talking about redistributing wealth, where to position the knife when we cut the pie. We should be worrying about the pie shrinking the way it is. This is heresy to some liberals. There's more. He's for the death penalty for drug dealers. And for nuclear power plants. No Duke here. He is almost eerie in his belief that voters will actually listen to a grown-up argument" (3/10). GOP consultant Todd Domke, "You know Jack Kerouac was from Lowell, like Tsongas. You get the feeling Tsongas would hit the (presidential) road for this personal, existential journey rather than because he really thinks he can win" (BOSTON HERALD, 3/10). *6 CUOMO: DEFENDS SANCTIONS STANCE, ATTACKS GOP Cuomo "harshly criticized [GOP] leaders for political attacks against Congressional [Dems] who voted against the war in the Persian Gulf, and said that the allied victory does not necessarily mean that the decision to go to war was the best one" (Kevin Sack, N.Y. TIMES). Cuomo "has maintained that continued economic pressure against Iraq might have accomplished President Bush's initial goals" -- the Iraqi army out of Kuwait, restoration of the Kuwaiti monarchy and release of U.S. hostages. Cuomo: "Logically, you cannot say if the President had had his way with that negotiation that it would have been less desirable than all the taking of lives and all the environmental damage and all the expense that followed. Can you say now that if the President had gotten his way with those three conditions that that would have been a failure, that that would have been appeasement? I don't think so." Cuomo "stressed that he was not saying that war was the wrong decision, only that it was impossible to know if it was the best decision." Cuomo called post-war GOP attacks of pro-sanctions Dems "cheap" and "foolish": "It's a shame that that magnificent debate should be desecrated now by tawdry politics that reveal conservative and radical [GOPers] at their worst. What the conservatives have revealed is that what they're best at is negativism. Their whole philosophy is a sort of Willie Horton campaign technique." Cuomo added GOPers "had erred by 'holding themselves as the party of war, saying, "This country doesn't want somebody who burns candles to the god Mars. We want somebody who can win a war that is forced upon us and made inevitable and can win the peace just as effectively" (3/11). *7 POWELL TO QUAYLE: DON'T WORRY ABOUT ME His friends say of the JCS Chair that "politics isn't his thing." And he has told the vice-president he has no interest in the job and is "deeply embarrassed" over the speculation of being swapped for Quayle (NEWSWEEK, 3/18). But others keep trying to toss Powell into the ring. Today's N.Y. DAILY NEWS (under headline: "2d place, 2d rate?") says the question is "whether by 1996, Americans can think of Quayle as 'President Quayle'" (Donald Rothberg, AP, 3/11). Cornell's Theodore Lowi says it's a bum rap: "Part of the wimp factor for Bush came from his behaving like a vice president should." But Dem pollster Peter Hart: "Nobody ever thought George Bush was too stupid to be President.' The article cites anonymous Republicans fearful that he could "ride Air Force 2" to the GOP nomination in 1996 in an election "Quayle can't win" (3/18). Meanwhile Ronald Brownstein and Sam Fulwood III ask "Could Powell be Drafted as Democrat?" In '96? "Like many accomplished military commanders --Eisenhower throughout the 1940s, for example -- Powell has kept everyone guessing" on his party inclinations. "If Powell hints even the slightest interest, and Democrats are uncharacteristically alert, it could set off the kind of bipartisan bidding war not seen since 1948" when both parties went after Ike (L.A. TIMES, 3/10). Powell's "non-political options" include: Another two year stint as JCS Chair starting in September; after that a job in private industry which a friend says would fit his desire to "run something and make it work" (NEWSWEEK 3/18) ; earn $17-28K a pop in public speaking (NEWSWEEK) i or even star as himself in HBO's TV film about the Gulf War (even though US NEWS reports George Bush's friends have made James Earl Jones their consensus choice for the role -- with George Plimpton a possible for his boss, 3/18 issue). IF BIG MO IS NEEDED: Missouri state Rep. Bob Quinn (D) predicts that when Bush drops Quayle by talking him into running for Governor of Indiana "for the good of the party," the second slot on the GOP ticket will go to Gov. John Ashcroft (R-MO) now completing his second and last term (ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH 3/10). *8 FROM THE TUBE: WEEKEND WARRIORS ON THE '92 WATCH CALL OFF THE ELECTION? Ex-Drug Czar Bill Bennett on '92 Dems: "I don't see a formidable slate coming out of there. Take out the people who voted against the authorization for use of force, the people who voted against the president" (McLaughlin "One on One," 3/10). Eleanor Clift: "Some of the name-brand Democrats are going to sit it out. But this a great opportunity for some of the lesser-known people to come out and make their reputation." Jack Germond: "The Democratic Party is not going to take a pass on this, because there are ambitious candidates like Gephardt and Gore, and several others who will prevent that" ("McLaughlin Group," 3/10). FOX's "Off the Record" looked at what it would take for Bush to lose: ROLL CALL's Jim Glassman "I think George Bush is vulnerable again on the Quayle issue, especially if the Democrats don't have anything else I think George Bush is missing a historic opportunity to put Colin Powell in there and get some black voters back to the Republican Party.' Barone: "Two words: economic collapse. Otherwise, he wins." WH speechwriter Tony Snow: "Dumping Dan Quayle and taking on Saddam Hussein." Beckel: "9% unemployment, a mainstream Democratic campaign, a short, bloodless Democratic nomination, and an awful lot of luck" (3/10). CANDIDATES: Germond's prediction: "In my child-like belief that there will still be a 1992 campaign ... I think first of all that Cuomo is going to run If he does not, the liberals are going to put a lot of pressure on George Mitchell." Fred Barnes offered, "I think Tsongas makes a lot of sense. What the Democrats need is another Greek-American liberal from Massachusetts to head the ticket." ("McLaughlin," 3/10). Ex-DNC chair Bob Strauss: "I have always felt that Lloyd Bentsen would be a very attractive candidate, " and "Cuomo would be a very tough, aggressive, progressive candidate." Bennett also said, "Take out Jesse Jackson" because of Doug Wilder, and, "Cuomo's very talented, very bright, he would engage the issues in a very interesting way" ("One on One," 3/10). "Off the Record's" Bob Beckel: "What's is happening this week is there are ad hoc groups getting ready to go to Lloyd Bentsen and say, 'Lloyd Bentsen, you've got to run, save the party.' Lloyd Bentsen's answer is this, 'If I can't win, I ain't going to be a sacrificial lamb.' And so what's now happening is my greatest fear. This vacuum is being filled by the Gong Show" (FOX, 3/10). MORE FROM THE GROUP: "McLaughlin Group" looked at the likelihood of several Dem candidacies after the war vote. GEPHARDT: Less likely. CUOMO: Question mark. WILDER: More likely. GORE: More likely. BENTSEN: More likely KERREY: More likely (3/10). FOCUS *9 COVER TO COVER: WHAT'S ON THE FRONT OF THE NEWSMAGS BUSINESS WEEK -- Graphic: Men and women flying through the sky with laptop computers on their laps. Headline: "Laptops take off" (3/18). NEWSWEEK -- Photo: Two Apache helicopters. Headline: "The Secret History of the War" (3/18). TIME -- Photo: U.S. woman holds flag, hugs returning soldier. Headline: "Coming Home: The Lessons of Victory." Subhead: "Inside Kuwait: Anger and Chaos" (3/18) U.S. NEWS -- Photo: Colin Powell. Headline: "The U.S. Military Reborn" (3/18). NEW REPUBLIC -- Photo: Line of surrendering Iraqis with arms raised. Headline: "The Rape and Rescue of Kuwait" (3/25). *10 POST-IRAQ -- NEW FRIENDS, OLD ENEMIES ASSAD COMMENTARY: "60 Minutes" profiled Syrian president Hafez Assad, showing a 1/91 clip of Bush justifying U.S. gulf action by saying he'd just read the Amnesty International report on Saddam Hussein. CBS' Morley Safer: "Had the President read on, he would have come to Amnesty's report on Assad -- it is equally appalling -- a catalogue of torture and repression -- in fact, the two dictators' methods are indistinguishable. But just as the United States once made a pact with the devil Saddam, it has now chosen, at the very least, to become friendly with Assad." The report, "Another Saddam?" showed frequent clips of Sec/State Baker and Bush meeting with Assad (CBS, 3/10). OLD FRIENDS: In a front-page story, WASH. POST says the that in the 15 days before the invasion, the Bush administration approved licenses for $4.8M in advanced technology products to Iraq. The sales were among "$1.5 billion in advanced U.S. products that the Reagan and Bush administrations allowed Iraq to buy from 1985 to 1990" (Stuart Auerbach, WASH. POST, 10/11). OLD WORLD DISORDER: This week's TIME raises the possibility of U.S. military intervention in a Soviet civil war. U.S. intelligence officials "believe there is a 'very real' possibility of widespread disorder A complete breakdown, they fear, could happen with stunning rapidity, perhaps in only 10 or 20 days" (George Church, 3/18 issue). *11 WAR POLITICS: THE DEM "RETREAT" House Dems met "at an aptly named retreat" in Leesburg, VA this past weekend (Eaton, L.A. TIMES, 3/9) "to try to forge a domestic policy that will rescue them from their current political troubles" (Feeney, DALLAS MORNING NEWS). Bill Moyers, who keynoted the retreat: "This euphoria will pass. " Rep. Dennis Eckart (D-OH) : "Keep these things in perspective. Two weeks is an eternity in politics" (Kenworthy, WASH. POST, 3/10). On foreign policy, ex-Dukakis adviser Madeline Albright: "All [int'l] problems can't be solved by bombing the bejesus out of some small country" (LAT, 3/9). WHAT TO DO IN '92: Balto. SUN's Theo Lippman calls for George Bush's name and a slate of electors to be placed on the Dem MD primary ballot. "[MD] law and [Dem] rules do not require a presidential candidate to be a party member, merely to be committed to the aims of the party. Even if the field of candidates were small, a Bush candidacy might do well. Suppose the results were, say, Bentsen 33 percent, Gore 25 percent, Wilder 20 percent, Bush 22 percent. What would the outcome do? It would send the national [Dem] Party a distant early warning signal that in 1992 it had better select a presidential candidate and write a national platform in sharp contrast to the liberal ones of the recent past" (3/10). Dem consultant Bob Shrum, on the lack of candidates: "The country is not ready to move from a campaign in the gulf to a campaign in Iowa" (Juan Williams, WASH. POST, 3/10) WHERE ARE THEY HEADED: Dem pollster Mark Mellman: "We've developed a statistical model -- an economic model based on disposable income -- and it indicates that '92 is going to be one of the worst years for an incumbent to be judged on economic performance in a presidential election." NEW REPUBLIC's Morton Kondracke: "The biggest phobia at the White House is rich versus poor, the issue [Dems] are flagging. It's not an issue that threatens Bush's re-election. But Bush finds it unpleasant when [Dems] denounce him as the champion of the wealthy. The only rich/poor issue Bush intends to broach is Kuwait and the rest of the Arab world" (3/25 issue). TV: Jack Germond: "What this means is that, when this kind of issue arises again everybody's going to vote politics." Eleanor Clift: "It should be pointed out that some of the big guns in the [GOP], namely [Gramm and Gingrich], sat out Vietnam with student deferments and they were in the front of the line when it came to coddling Saddam." Pat Buchanan: "They ought to be held accountable for it, and they're going to be held accountable for it. McLaughlin asked if it is politically smart for the Republicans to exploit the gulf war issue and the vote. Germond: "It's smart in the same way using Willie Horton was smart. Clift: "I think it's stupid because I think the country enjoys the feeling of unity that we had coming out of this war and for the Republicans to act like a bunch of Shriners in the Congressional hall made them look silly." McLaughlin: "If it's done correctly, it's an okay issue because it's rooted in national defense." DSCC Chair Sen. Chuck Robb (D-VA) and NRSC Chair Sen. Phil Gramm (R-TX) were featured on CNN's "Evans & Novak" 3/9 and met again 3/10 on NBC's Meet the Press. Robb referred to the U.S. tilt towards Iraq over the last 10 years, April Glaspie's message to the Iraqis before the invasion and "the fact that the sanctions were opposed [by the administration] right before the invasion took place." Robb: "I'm suggesting that there is potential political vulnerability there, I'm saying that some of us are more likely to look at the larger picture; in part to offset some of the kind of rhetoric that we're going to get from Phil and the rest of the colleagues that want to punish people for a particular vote" (NBC, 3/10). HOTSPOTS *12 ARIZONA: THAT'S HATTIE BABBITT WE'RE TALKIN' ABOUT Hattie Babbitt, wife of ex-AZ Gov. Bruce Babbitt (D), "was a real hit with her husband on the 1988 presidential campaign trail," prompting "more than one wag" to comment "that it was too bad the more photogenic and equally articulate Hattie wasn't the candidate, rather than Bruce.' Since then, "a number of politicos have urged" her to seek public office. H. Babbitt said, "I've thought about it and I'm not interested." But "in the next breath, she "left the door open to the possibility": "I would only consider it in 1994 if [Sen. Dennis] DeConcini didn't run" (ARIZONA REPUBLIC, 3/10). HOUSE ETHICS PROBE COMMENCES TODAY: "In an effort to determine if three indicted House members should be disciplined or even booted out of the Arizona House, the House Ethics Committee "kicks off its AZSCAM hearings" today. Five reps. were indicted; two have already resigned. Some form of discipline "is virtually assured" and "can be applied through a simple majority vote" of 31 of the 60-member House. "Similar standards will be used" next week when the Senate Ethics Committee "begins its hearings" on two Dem st. sens. except, "in the Senate, it will be even easier to expel members" (REPUBLIC, 3/11). Meanwhile, the Maricopa Co. Attorney "is expected to announce the indictments" today of 14 people "who Phoenix police say were involved in illegal gambling during the initial stages of the 'Azscam' political-corruption probe" (3/9). MINETTE ELECTED DEM CHAIR: Tucson resident and ex-NBC TV correspondent Bill Minette "withstood a last-minute challenge" from State Rep. Sandra Kennedy in being elected AZ Dem Chair 3/9. Minette replaces ex-Gov. Sam Goddard, "who has headed the state party for 12 years" but "decided not to seek re-election to another two-year term" (3/10). IS LOSING THE CACTUS LEAGUE THE NEXT BLOW? 8 Major League baseball teams conduct Spring training in AZ; next year the Cleveland Indians leave for FL; more may follow. "Arizona, awash in sleazy political scandals and a recession, may not have the resources or the smarts to win this battle. In Florida, state legislators have approved matching money for any cities who build complexes to lure spring-training teams. In Arizona, state legislators are either uninterested or under indictment" (Mark Purdy, SAN JOSE MERCURY NEWS/MIAMI HERALD, 3/7). *13 FLORIDA: DON'T RUN NORM; MONEY BEFORE POWER, I SAY While in Orlando, televangelist Pat Robertson said Desert Storm Commander Gen. Norman Schwarzkopf "shouldn't risk a run" against Sen. Bob Graham (D) "Schwarzkopf could have the presidency or chairmanship of any major corporation and make $1 million a year. I feel he would be foolish to give up a sure thing to run for office. I don't think he would beat Sen. Graham." Robertson reiterated that he won't run against Bush and that Bush is "the strongest [president] in American history. I don't know if George Washington was as strong" (ORLANDO SENTINEL, 3/10). On NBC's "Today," Schwarzkopf: "I have never considered any political aspirations [but] I'm not going to slam the door ever [on politics]. You know, somebody once said 'never say never' and that's probably pretty good advice, but at the present time I'm certainly not thinking about anything in that nature. I just would be very happy if the history books said that I was a soldier who served his country with honor" (3/11). CHILES PUSHES REFORMS, BUT: Gov. Lawton Chiles (D) has asked the Legislature to change how FL's electoral college votes would be cast for president -- from unanimous for the state-wide winner to one elector for each CD winner (the Maine system). FL GOP Chair Van Poole says "no way" to the Chiles formula which in 1988 would have given Dukakis one elector (MIAMI HERALD, 3/10). Meanwhile, a Ft. Lauderdale NEWS SUN-SENTINEL survey found 50 legislators in favor of Chiles' proposal to put a $500 limit on campaign contributions, and only 15 against it. But on support of Chiles' public financing recommendations, legislators were split 30/31 (3/10). *14 GEORGIA: WHITE HOUSE SENDS IN COVERDELL AGAINST FOWLER? "Is the White House showing an early preference in the sure- to-be hotly contested race" against Sen. Wyche Fowler (D) in '92? "When asked for a presidential message to read at the big Desert Storm celebration rally Saturday the White House sent Peace Corps Director Paul Coverdell, a likely contender, down from Washington to read it. " Also, Wyche's wife Donna Fowler "has left her job as issues director at People for the American Way to become senior editor" at the Assn. of Governing Boards of Universities and Colleges. A spokesperson said "financial cutbacks at [PFAW], not political considerations, led to the move" (Tom Baxter, Atlanta CONSTITUTION, 3/11). *15 KANSAS: EX-GOP CHAIR REVIVES TIES WITH GLICKMAN During the "last few days, " ex-KS GOP Chair Dave Owen "has re-established an old friendship" with Rep. Dan Glickman (D-04), "who is considering a race" for Sen. Bob Dole's (R) seat in '92. Glickman "said no agreements were reached" at the DC meeting. Owen: "It was a discussion to get up to date and renew our acquaintance, to re-establish the relationship." In '90, Owen "re-established an old friendship" with now-Gov. Joan Finney (D) and thus "helped [her] defeat" GOP Gov. Mike Hayden, "the man for whom Owen raised money" in '86. K.C. STAR's Rich Hood asks, "Is Owen now ready to work against Dole as he did against Hayden?" Owen was "national fund-raising chief" for Dole's '88 pres. bid until Dole "fired him after questions were raised" about Owen's role in Hayden's '86 campaign; criminal charges were filed against Owen and some associates in connection with fund-raising. Owen has denied wrongdoing -- a district court threw out the charges -- but the KS Supreme Ct. is expected to rule on an appeal any day now. Owen "has made bitter pronouncements" about Dole "since the 1988 blowup." On the same day he met with Glickman, Owen also met with the WH political staff "and discussed Bush's re-election campaign and other upcoming races, including Dole's expected re-election bid" (3/10). DOLE-DRUMS?: Uncertainty over whether Dole and Sens. Jake Garn (R-UT) and Warren Rudman (R-NH) will seek reelection in '92 is "clouding the otherwise improving prospects for the party to take back control of the Senate" next year. In the wake of the Gulf war, GOPers "feel they have the potential to regain the majority," but "that possibility could be undermined" by the three, "who are giving varying degrees of consideration to retiring.' Even though "since the beginning of the year, Dole "has stepped up visits to [KS] and has held several fund- raisers, colleagues "are nevertheless apprehensive, in part because of occasional private comments from Dole indicating a kind of weary frustration with his job. Although the GOP "would be favored to retain" Garn's and Rudman's seats, it "could lose {KS] to a strong Democratic challenger if Dole does not run, in the view of some party strategists" (WASHINGTON POST, 3/10). *16 MARYLAND: SEN. TOM CLANCY?; DYSON: TEACHER OR REP.? WASH. TIMES reports "Best-selling war and espionage novelist Tom Clancy ["Hunt for Red October"] is heating up speculation that he's serious about running for a Senate seat next year by making strategic speaking engagements" to GOP loyalists. Clancy told Capitol News Service that "he hasn't made a decision on challenging" Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D) "I just haven't had a chance to think about it." Mikulski had a 52% approval rating in a Mason-Dixon Research poll in 1/91. That margin makes GOPers "believe a victory against the liberal one-termer is realistic." Also, ex-Rep. Roy Dyson (D) "has. been offered a chance to teach a political science course" at U of MD Eastern Shore. Dyson has not said whether he will accept. "He has not ruled out running again" to regain his 1st CD seat which he held for 10 years before losing to Wayne Gilchrest (R) in November (3/11). *17 NEW YORK: EX-CARTER AIDE FOR D'AMATO SEAT?; DINKINS RE-RUN Now that state AG Robert Abrams (D) "said he'll run" for Sen. '92, Sen. Al D'Amato's (R) "next challenger may be" Leon Charney, "the lawyer who helped set up Jimmy Carter's Camp David powwow with Anwar Sadat and Menachem Begin." Charney said "he's still thinking it over" (N.Y. POST, 3/11). Mayor David Dinkins (D) said 3/8 "that he planned to seek reelection so he could be in City Hall for 'the better days. Dinkins, referring to the city's budget crisis: "I know there are better days coming, and I intend to be mayor when the better days are here." Ex-Mayor Ed Koch (D) "said that unless Dinkins changes, he'd be beaten by virtually any [GOP] challenger -- except possibly Pierre Rinfret, whose [GOP gov. run against Gov. Cuomo last year became a laughingstock." Koch: "I think he should pray that Rinfret runs." Koch "said Dinkins would have no problem winning a race for the [Dem] nomination, even if Council President Andrew Stein were in it. Stein said last fall that he was considering a 1993 run for mayor" (N.Y. DAILY NEWS, 3/9). Dinkins: "To those who are sharpening their pencils and determining they may seek this office, I don't intend to just leave." Dinkins' "popularity will be put to the test [3/20], when he holds his first major fundraiser, a $1,000-a-plate affair" (N.Y. POST, 3/9). N.Y. TIMES headline: "Dinkins Booed at an Irish Parade" (3/11). SIGN OF TROUBLE: City labor relations commissioner Eric Schmertz resigned 3/9 "in a feud with the city budget commissioner over wage deferrals for municipal unions. ... the flap erupted last week when union leaders learned that Budget Director Philip Michael had sent a memo to Moody's Investment Service [2/4] saying negotiations were underway to help close the city's budget gap by having municipal union workers defer 1.5% of their wages for three years.' Labor leaders denied any such negotiations were underway and "Schmertz claimed Michael had trampled on his turf as the city's chief labor negotiator. But Mayor Dinkins refused to fire Michael, and [3/9] called Schmertz' resignation a 'vindication' for the budget director and for his administration" (DAILY NEWS, 3/10). FRAUD: "The fraud and conspiracy trial" of Rep. Floyd Flake (D-06) "is set to begin today in Brooklyn federal court, with prosecutors expected to detail" how he and his wife "allegedly embezzled thousands of dollars" (N.Y. POST, 3/11). *18 SOUTH CAROLINA: HOLLINGS DEFENDS ANTI-WAR VOTE At a lunch meeting 3/4 with local Rotary and Kiwanis Club members, Sen. Ernest Hollings (D) "defended his anti-war position." Hollings: "I thought in addition to waving yellow flags, I thought we ought to wave our pocketbooks, and, incidentally, we're going to have to." However, Hollings told the crowd "he is pleased with the war's outcome": "While there might have been an argument for [not] going to war, there's no argument for going to war and winning decisively. We lost more [people] on the highways of South Carolina since January 1 than we lost in this six-week war." Following his speech, Hollings said "he thinks American money should be kept out of the reconstruction of Kuwait": "They've got the money to reconstruct. We'll get the contracts" (SUMTER DAILY ITEM, 3/6). Today's WASH. POST featured an op-ed by Hollings "The Great Budget Hoax.' LEGISLATORS FOUND GUILTY OF CORRUPTION: In the second trial resulting from an FBI investigation of SC Statehouse corruption, a Columbia jury 3/8 "deliberated only 90 minutes before convicting two lawmakers of selling their votes." State Reps. B.J. Gordon (D) and Larry Blanding (D), who "had been videotaped taking cash-filled envelopes" last year from a Government informer "in exchange for their support of a bill that would have legalized horse and dog racing," were "convicted on one count each of conspiring to violate an antibribery statute." Blanding was "also convicted" of two counts of bribery "for accepting cash payments" and "faces a maximum sentence" of 60 years in prison and a $750,000 fine, while Gordon, who "was convicted of one count of bribery, could get 40 years in prison and a $500,000 fine." Gordon and Blanding "are among 14 state legislators who were indicted on either drug or bribery charges" as a result of Operation Lost Trust, an undercover FBI operation "that began in 1989." Most of the defendents in the sting "have pleaded guilty and await sentencing" (N.Y. TIMES, 3/10). CALIFORNIA CABLE *19 L.A. POLICE BEATING: SHOULD GATES GO? "Reacting to controversy that has prompted calls for his dismissal, LA Police Chief/potential gov. candidate Daryl Gates "recommended felony prosecution" 3/7 "for three officers who participated in the beating" of suspect Rodney King. Mayor Tom Bradley, who "appeared pleased with Gates' call for disciplinary actions, said he would not attempt to remove Gates, as some civil rights groups have demanded." ACLU of Southern CA Exec. Dir. Ramona Ripston "said Gates' response did not go far enough" and "reiterated her call for Gates to resign": "He still says that this is an aberration and I don't believe this. Instances similar to the one we have on videotape happen all the time." Gates: "I have absolutely no thoughts of resigning. ... If anything, this is a time for strength of leadership" (LA TIMES, 3/8). At a 3/7 press conference, reporters "raised questions not only about King's beating, but about a number of incidents involving officers and blacks over the years. " Gates "denied that the department exhibited racism in its handling of minorities" (3/8). LA TIMES editorial: "In the wake of an incident that has shocked the nation, [Gates] is willing to fully acknowledge that a few officers used excessive force and should be punished. But he is still missing the crucial larger issue: the systemic problems that appear to exist within the department. individual error. It calls into question the training, the disciplinary procedures and the very culture of the LAPD. Why would a group of officers believe they could beat up a suspect and get away with it without any consequences? These actions -- and the inaction of the officers who watched -- suggest that something may be terribly wrong within the LAPD" (3/8). Despite Gates' "public condemnation of the attack, the issue remains a sensitive one within the [police] department" (3/9). WASH. POST's William Raspberry writes, "Given the long histroy of racial allegations against members of the department, and the chief's apparent inability to curb his men, the head that should roll now sits squarley on the stiff neck of Chief Gates. ... The impression is that Gates cares less avbout the brutality that persists in his department than about the damage to his public relations" (3/11). CAMPAIGNS '91 *20 LOUISIANA GOVERNOR: ROEMER SWITCHING TO GOP This a.m.'s New Orleans TIMES-PICAYUNE headline: "Roemer switching parties, state GOP chairman says" (3/11). Gov. Buddy Roemer (D-LA) "will become the first sitting governor in modern history to change parties" after meeting last night at the governor's mansion with LA GOP chair Billy Nungesser and four GOP "possible candidates for governor" -- "U.S. Reps. Richard Baker and Clyde Holloway, Lt. Gov. Paul Hardy and former Gov. Dave Treen." Nungesser said "Roemer is a prime candidate for the convention to endorse" but insisted "Roemer's decision to change does not guarantee that he will have the organization's official backing" in the race. Roemer chief of staff P.J. Mills, "said Friday that Roemer would make the change" (Alan Sayre, AP, 3/10). DALLAS MORNING NEWS' Sam Attlesey reports that on 3/7, two GOP congressmen -- Reps. Robert Livingston (R-01) and Jim McCrery (R- 04) -- "all but endorsed Roemer for governor should he switch" (3/9). "Holloway said he has not promised to step aside for Roemer, Treen, [Henson] Moore, or anyone else" (McKinney and Shuler/Baton Rouge MORNING ADVOCATE, 3/8). Roemer has set a news conference for 11:00am today to formally announce his decision. (TIMES-PICAYUNE, 3/11). Nungesser said Roemer did not seek gubernatorial commitments at the private meeting with top GOP brass and got none" (Baton Rouge MORNING ADVOCATE, 3/11). MOORE: Ex-Rep./U.S. Dep. Energy Sec. Henson Moore (R), who gave up his House seat in the '86 Senate race only to lose to John Breaux, "is considering" getting into the race. "Moore, buoyed by a favorable showing in a recent poll, has told the White House he is interested." The "unavailable" poll "showed that Moore still has high name recognition around the state. The source said the poll showed Roemer with high negatives. Moore needs the White House conference 'to determine the obligations he has (to the president), the plans the administration has for him" (MORNING ADVOCATE, 3/8). ROEMER GOP PHOTO-OP? TIMES-PICAYUNE reports Barbara Bush and Roemer will both be in East Jefferson, LA., 3/13 to present an excellence award to a local Jr. High School (3/8). OTHERS: "Former banking commissioner Fred Dent and former Education Superintendent Tom Clausen are thinking of joining" the race. Dent: "There is a very high probability that I will make the race." State Rep. David Duke (R) "is expected to announce his candidacy this week"; "Treen said he would let his official plans be known this week" (AP, 3/10). *21 KENTUCKY GOVERNOR: JONES & WILKINSON IN "DEATH DANCE" Louisville COURIER-JOURNAL's Robert Garrett writes, "In [KY] right now, we're lucky to have two politicians so absorbed with themselves and one another that they sometimes forget we're watching. The two," outgoing-Gov. Wallace Wilkinson (D) and LG Brereton Jones (D), "locked horns again last week and resumed what's likely to be a death dance for one or both of them." Jones "paints" the 5/28 Dem gov. primary "as a titanic struggle between good (himself) and evil (that little Napoleon running our state. He asks a lot) Jones, "goody-two-shoes that he is, he has won over many fans with pained expressions and tongue control, in much the same way Bjorn Borg used to profit from John McEnroe's tantrums. Because Jones has seemed indecisive so often, it was a given that Gov. Wilkinson would pounce and mock Jones' new resolve. But Wilkinson charged over to Louisville [3/7] and spewed bile, not barbs. And so the saga of Mad King Wally and Jell-0 Jones continues, headed perhaps toward mutual assured oblivion. We may not have them long, so let's read their lips and enjoy them while we can" (3/10) CARVILLE CARNIVAL: James Carville "reprised his role" as Wilkinson "carnival barker" 3/7, saying, in a half-hour TV interview, "that he'll probably play a big part" in Martha Wilkinson's campaign (Fran Ellers, C-J). Carville, "a sharp- tongued political consultant with a startling success rate was the chief strategist in Wilkinson's 1987 victory and has been an adviser to the [gov.] ever since. However, he has remained in the background since the 1990 General Assembly, when he angered lawmakers by referring to them with an expletive and advising Wilkinson on [TV ads] that criticized them. Jones spokesperson Diana Taylor "declined to respond to 'attacks by out-of-state consultants'": "Mr. Carville must have just read some new polls showing that we're getting further ahead" (3/8). BATHER JOLTS POORE: Dr. Floyd Poore's (D) "efforts to establish an electoral beachhead in Jefferson [Co.'s] black community came under a cloud late last week, as Louisville Alderman Paul Bather [D] complained publicly about Joe Johnson, the manager of Poore's campaign" (Al Cross, C-J). Bather: "He is the only perceived liability I see Floyd having. ... He doesn't have the organizational talents that are necessary to run a campaign of this stature. He's in over his head." Bather, a Poore supporter, "said he was taking the unusual step of making his feelings about Johnson public to illustrate the depth of his concern" (3/10). QUESTIONING A BUSH ENDORSEMENT: Atty Larry Forgy (R) "bashed" Rep. Larry Hopkins [R-06], for claiming that Hopkins already had won the support of President Bush for the governorship. Forgy said Hopkins has proclaimed during several appearances that Bush has committed to campaign in [KY] for the congressman. But Forgy noted that he had been a top state officer in two of the last three [pres.] elections. And he said Bush would 'never violate his position of neutrality as the de facto head of the [GOP] by intervening in the primary.' Hopkins could not be reached for comment, but a spokesman at his campaign headquarters in Lexington said that Bush has committed to Hopkins" (AP/C-J, 3/9). *22 TX 03: BARTLETT RESIGNATION TAKES EFFECT TODAY Rep. Steve Bartlett (R-03) left Congress 3/7, "marking the end of an eight-year House career and the beginning of his full- time campaign" for Dallas mayor. His resignation takes effect today. "He said that although he was not legally required to resign from Congress before running for mayor, he did so out of fairness to residents" of his 3rd CD. Bartlett, "who had $167,323 in his federal campaign account as of [12/31] told reporters that he will not use any of it in his mayoral race, even though federal law permits it. He said he plans to refund the money to individual contributors, beginning with the most recent donors. He does not plan to return money to political action committees, he said. He has also pledged not to get involved in the campaign to elect his congressional successor." The Dallas election is scheduled for 5/4. A spokeswoman for Gov. Ann Richards (D) "said the governor would not set a date for a special election to replace" Bartlett until his resignation takes effect 3/11 (DALLAS MORNING NEWS, 3/8). *23 PHILADELPHIA MAYOR: GOODE BACKS BURRELL Mayor Wilson Goode (D) endorsed ex-councilmember George Burrell (D) for the 5/21 primary. Goode: "I think when you look at the candidates and look at who has the broadest potential of growth in terms of coalition-building, I believe that rests with George Burrell." The mayor faced a "difficult choice" in deciding between "his old friend" ex-Philly Managing Dir. James White and Burrell (S.A. Paolantonio, PHILA. INQUIRER). According to Dems close to the mayor, "Goode selected Burrell because he wanted to support" Rep. Bill Gray (D-02) and the "black clergy leaders. But, Goode seems to have failed to unite the black community behind one candidate." An internal poll of 809 Dems, taken "the last week in February" by Cooper & Secrest for ex- Philly Bar Assn. Peter Hearn (D) showed ex-D.A. Ed Rendell "in a strong position" to win the primary with 38%. Ex-councilmember Lucien Blackwell had 17%, Hearn 9% and White and Burrell with 8% each. "The poll contradicts Goode's contention that Burrell has more growth potential than White. Burrell has a somewhat higher positive rating than White," 36% to 33%. But "Burrell also has a higher negative rating than White's,' 29% to 24% (3/11). CASTILLE: Philly GOPers "are plotting how to get Bush" for the '91 campaigns, "especially" if Vietnam vet/D.A. Ron Castille wins the primary. Some GOPers worry that bringing in Bush would give the Dems "a chance to stoke disappointment with the Reagan- Bush era inciting protesters, especially AIDS activists, and reducing" the GOP's "appeal among key liberal swing voters" (INQUIRER, 3/10). POLL UPDATE *24 TIME/CNN: "DRAMATIC REVERSAL" IN ATTITUDES ON THE ECONOMY Conducted 3/7 by Yankelovich Clancy Shulman; surveyed 1,000 adults; margin of error +/- 3% (TIME, 3/18 issue). IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS, WILL IS U.S. PULLING OUT ECONOMIC CONDITIONS IN U.S. OF CURRENT RECESSION? NOW 1/91 YES NO Get better 44% 19% 54% 40% Turn for the worse 15 43 Stay the same 40 HOW WOULD YOU DESCRIBE ECONOMIC CONDITIONS IN THE U.S. TODAY? Fairly good 49% Poor 38 WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING ARE THE LESSONS FROM THE GULF WAR? A LESSON NOT A LESSON U.S. still the greatest military power 86% 11% U.S. must increase efforts to end unrest in teh Milddle East 65 28 U.S. should not hesitate to use military force to protect its interests around the world 58 34 Only U.S. can take the lead in protecting democracy around the world 43 50 SHOULD THE U.S. BE PLAYING THE ROLE OF WORLD YES NO POLICEMAN, FIGHTING AGGRESSION WHEREVER IT OCCURS? 21% 75% DOES U.S. PERFORMANCE IN THE WAR GIVE YOU MORE OR LESS CONFIDENCE IN: MORE CONFIDENCE LESS CONFIDENCE U.S. military 93% 3% American presidency 86 8 Republican Party 65 16 U.S. Media 54 34 Democratic Party 41 34 TV MONITOR *25 THIS MORNING: NBC's "Today" interviewed Gen. Norman Schwarzkopf. CBS' "This Morning" hosted Yassir Arafat. FOX's "Morning News" interviewed Margaret Thatcher, Rep. Tom Lantos (D- CA), FDIC chair William Seidman, and Friends of the Earth's Brent Blackwelder on the Gulf's environmental status. Arafat: "We are not asking to send General Schwarzkopf, but at least to push the Israelis to accept the United Nations' resolutions" (CBS). Blackwelder: "You need a full scale environmental Marshall plan to do the job. The environment cannot be forgotten, we need to be as aggressive in cleaning up ... as we were in pursuing the military [plan]" (FOX). THIS WEEKEND: Friday leads: CBS showed lengthy unemployment lines as part of its intro: "Post war euphoria ran up against the latest dose of economic reality today" (Rather). NBC's 3/8 lead: "From Operation Desert Storm to Operation Party Time Wives, husbands, lovers, children, parents, grass, trees, pizza, beer, and no need for gas masks -- welcome home" (Brokaw). ABC opened with the reception given to returning troops, "the likes of which the veterans of America's last war, Vietnam, never saw. Like almost everything else in the highly successful U.S. effort in the gulf, it all happened in story-book fashion" (Donaldson). CBS labeled it "The kind of hero's welcome that hasn't been seen since the end of World War II." (Rather, 3/8). CBS also covered the "coming war over veterans benefits" (3/9). ABC's "Persons of the Week" 3/8: "the 120 Americans who won't be coming home.' The "Jesse Jackson" show examined the press in the gulf, "battling military censorship" (3/10). NBC's "Meet the Press" hosted DSCC chair Sen. Charles Robb (D-VA) and NRSC chair Sen. Phil Gramm (R-TX). John McLaughlin's "One on One" hosted ex-Drug Czar William Bennett and ex-DNC chair Bob Strauss. CBS' "Face the Nation" hosted VP Quayle, Bennett and Gov. Doug Wilder (D-VA). ABC's "This Week" hosted French Prime Minister Michel Rocard, Sen. Maj. Leader George Mitchell, House Speaker Tom Foley (D-WA) and Rep. Newt Gingrich (R-GA). HIGHER UNEMPLOYMENT: ABC's intro reporting unemployment ("its highest level in nearly four years") "White collar workers -- in the recession, no one's safe" (Donaldson, 3/8). NBC's Brokaw said, "Desert Storm veterans are coming home to a country in recession, of course however the jobs of most of the GIs should be safe" (3/8) THEY'RE BACK: ABC's promo of the return of their "America Agenda" focus on issues, as the words Health, Education, Drugs and Environment flashed on the screen: "Remember the way it was before the war? Things still need change" (3/10). BAKER "ON THE ROAD AGAIN": "In the Middle East right now, the United States is dealing form a position of great strength -- that's why Secretary of State Baker is on the road again" (ABC, 3/8). Baker "will be listening closely to see if any member of the Kuwaiti Royal Family even mentions the possibility of elections, something the U.S. very much wants to hear" (John McWethy, 3/8). NBC's Brokaw said Baker is in the Mideast "with his blueprints and his estimates" -- and NBC's Dancy added, "this, despite decades of failed American efforts" (3/8). Pat Buchanan predicts when Baker arrives in Israel he'll see that "the Likud Party does want peace but it also wants the West Bank and is not going to give it up, and given the tremendous support they've got in the U.S. Congress and support in parts of this country, Mr. Bush will not go all the way in trying to push an Israeli/Palestinian agreement" ("McLaughlin Group, " 3/10). NBC's 3/9 intro: "This country fought for Kuwait's liberation. The question now is whether we fought for its liberty" (Utley). NBC's graphic joined pictures of Sec/State Baker and the Emir of Kuwait over the words, "More Democracy" (3/9). ABC also said Baker is "trying to parlay the Allies' military victory into diplomatic momentum" (Simpson), but after reporting the stabbing murder of four Jewish women by a Palestinian, ABC's Dean Reynolds added the visit is "what many Israelis suspect is a one-sided effort to force concessions from them" (3/10). NBC's John Dancy said Baker "hung out the 'Open for Business' sign on his Middle East peace bazaar today and found, it not buyers, at least some Arab shoppers." But Ed Rabel, reporting from Israel after the stabbings -- "an attack the police say is directly related to the Baker visit" -- noted Baker will find "a Jerusalem filled with anger" (NBC, 3/10). CBS' 3/9 intro: "Baker visits a liberated Kuwait and gets a promise of democracy." Baker, on the possibilty of Iraq using chemical weapons against anti-Saddam uprisings: "We have reason to believe that they might be planning such activity, and we thought it was importatnt that we let them know how we would view that" (CBS, 3/9). CBS' Bill Plante: "Change does indeed seem inevitable, but chances are it won't happen according to the script." CBS commentary from Bruce Morton, on Bush's goal of peace for the region: "We should wish him good luck, because he's going to need it" (3/9). GOAT OF THE WEEK: "Record's" Bob Beckel selected as his "Goat of the Week" L.A. Police Chief Dale Gates, "a thug for years Dale Gates ought to resign, and if he doesn't resign they ought to throw him out" (3/10). TV SOUNDBITE "What's now happening is my greatest fear. This vacuum is being filled by the Gong Show." -- Dem strategist Bob Beckel, on the lack of '92 Dem candidates, "Off the Record,' FOX-TV, 3/10 ####