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Records of the White House Office of Speechwriting (George H. W. Bush Administration)
Tony Snow Subject Files
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Originally Processed With FOIA(s):
FOIA Number:
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MARKER
This is not a textual record. This is used as an
administrative marker by the George Bush Presidential
Library Staff.
Record Group/Collection:
George H.W. Bush Presidential Records
Collection/Office of Origin:
Speechwriting, White House Office of
Series:
Snow, Tony, Files
Subseries:
Subject File, 1988-1993
OA/ID Number:
13894
Folder ID Number:
13894-024
Folder Title:
[Hotline-Political Briefing, 1/91-3/91]
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18
29
2
2
Friday --- January 25, 1991 ---
# # # ###
THE DAILY BRIEFING ON AMERICAN POLITICS
---
Updated Each Morning At 11:30
(c) The American Political Network, Inc.
282 North Washington Street, Falls Church, VA (703) 237-5130
MCGOVERN: "TANNED" AND "READY"
SPOTLIGHT
In NH speech, he rips "false
patriotism. " If his committee
GRADING THE WAR ON CAMPUS
reaches $500K goal, he'll
"announce by March." (#1)
Berkeley DAILY CALIFORNIAN:
"peace and negotiation can
SC SENATE: HARTNETT HITS FRITZ
prevail, but only if
Ex-Rep. Hartnett "seriously
citizens express their
considering" challenge, cites
opposition
with their
Hollings' war vote. (#13)
bodies, voices and actions"
COLUMBIA DAILY SPECTATOR:
GOP GULF WAR: WHO'S IN CHARGE?
"No blood for oil' should
YEUTTER: As Cuomo, Foley and
not be the only rallying
Brown join Dem counterattack,
cry; everyone must be aware
NRSC rips "appeasement-before-
of the complexities "
country liberals." Gingrich
DAILY NORTHWESTERN: "our
says Bush "did not disagree"
soldiers did not ask for
with Yeutter. Fitzwater cites
this war and should not be
"a certain partisanship about
blamed for it."
the way the votes were cast. "
DAILY TEXAN: "stopping
ED TU? NRCC exodus. (#6, #7)
[war] may be impossible.
But we have to try. We owe
BLACKS & WAR: GAPING AT THE GAP
the soldiers that much. "
10 black Reps who opposed war
Ann Arbor MICHIGAN DAILY:
resolution get no heat at home.
"while opposition to the
Are black troops "puppets" or
war is warranted, a
"patriots?" (#3). Poll affirms
compulsory draft at this
black/white split on war (#19).
point is necessary" to stop
"de facto poverty draft."
KEATING 5: JOY OF FUND-RAISING
DAILY KENT STATER:
In transcript of Oct. ethics
"Let's not get caught up in
panel session, Rudman called
violence." (See #2)
Cranston memo "startling." (#5)
QUOTE OF THE DAY
"African-Americans should not be left with military service as
their best opportunity -- to die for someone else's country
because the country refuses them what is originally theirs."
-- PANTHER editorial (Clark College, Atlanta), 1/28, #2
(c) 1991 by the American Political Network, Inc. Any
reproduction -- by photocopy, FAX, or other form -- in whole
or in part, is a violation of federal law and is strictly
prohibited without the consent of APN. All rights reserved.
HOTLINE/DATABASE INDEX
WHITE HOUSE '92
MCGOVERN: "Tanned and relaxed" -- and ready? (#1)
FOCUS
WAR ON CAMPUS: What the college newspapers are saying. (#2)
RACE AND WAR: Dissent among black House members. (#3)
TELEVISION: The medium's message. (#4)
KEATING 5: Transcript of Cranston session hints at sanctions (#5)
ROLLINS, NUTTLE, DARMAN: "Three shocks hit the GOP." (#6)
YEUTTER: Dems ire; Bush doesn't disagree with war comments. (#7)
HOTSPOTS
GA: Here a Gov, there a Gov. (#8)
IL: Edgar may be ordered to increase spending. (#9)
MD: Schaefer budget program blasted. (#10)
MA: Weld plan calls for state worker furloughs. (#11)
MO: All in the family. (#12)
SC: War vote prompts Hartnett Senate run? (#13)
CALIFORNIA CABLE
L.A. COUNTY SUPERVISOR: Round 2. (#14)
CAMPAIGNS '91
KENTUCKY GOVERNOR: Buck's out, Galbraith lacks bucks. (#15)
AUSTIN MAYOR: Cooke will not seek second term. (#16)
DALLAS MAYOR: Smith enters a race w/o an election day. (#17)
SAN ANTONIO MAYOR: Let the people be heard. (#18)
POLL UPDATE
NBC/WSJ: "Americans strongly support Gulf war. " (#19)
TV MONITOR (#20)
A.M. headlines
Bomb Saddam?
domestic affairs
protests
Baltics
Leno.
WHITE HOUSE '92
*1 MCGOVERN: "TANNED AND RELAXED" -- AND READY?
George McGovern "told a standing-room only crowd at the
[Univ. of NH] that he may again seek the presidency in 1992"
(John Whitson, Manchester UNION LEADER). McGovern: "We need a
strong alternative voice in the [Dem] Presidential arena this
year. If no such candidate emerges, I may attempt to fill that
leadership myself. I would prefer that a younger, less battle-
scarred candidate would now come forward. But if that is not to
be, then I believe that I am ready physically and mentally in
heart, mind and body, to raise the Democratic standard."
McGovern "voiced opposition to America's involvement in the
Persian Gulf war, but "said he is considering the 1992 race
because of his concerns about domestic policies by President
George Bush and Ronald Reagan. He "decried what he called a
'false patriotism"" "It is not patriotic to commit young
Americans to war unless our national security is clearly and
absolutely involved, and that is the determination of the
Congress." He "said he has formed a committee of 16 people who
will spend the next several months gauging his ability to attract
financial support, adding that he will need about $500,000 to
begin a serious presidential bid" (1/25). The "exploratory
committee hopes to raise $500,000 for a campaign, and if they do
he will announce by March" (John Milne, BOSTON GLOBE, 1/25).
McGovern: "I'm not under any illusions. I'd like to get
something other than pure ridicule if I did it." He looked
"tanned and relaxed.
In particular, friends say, Mr. McGovern
does not relish being labeled another Harold Stassen, the
perennial [GOP] candidate of the 1940's, 50's and 60's" (Fox
Butterfield, N.Y. TIMES) '84 McGovern NH coordinator Woody
Woodland: "McGovern people who know the Senator have mixed
feelings. We are excited, but we know it will be rough with
comparisons to Stassen" (1/25). "[T]he most enthusiastic
response came when he announced his tentative Presidential plans"
(UNION LEADER, 1/25). "[T]he crowd broke into sustained applause
that seemed to surprise even him. And it rekindled memories of
the 1968 primary when an anti-war candidate shocked [NH] and the
rest of the nation" (Adam Nagourney, USA TODAY, 1/25).
FOCUS
*2 WAR ON CAMPUS: WHAT THE COLLEGE NEWSPAPERS ARE SAYING
The nation's campuses, particularly those with activist
traditions, are torn by the war. Campus papers are calling for
support for the troops, support for protesters' rights, and a
quick end to war. Here's a sampler from around the country:
BRANDEIS JUSTICE: "Nobody, absolutely nobody, is in favor
of war. But a choice must be made as to whether or not the
[U.S.], as a member of both the United Nations and a 28-country
coalition, will oppose the violent acquisition of a country by
one of its neighbors. In light of the exhaustion of peaceful
solutions, we at the JUSTICE support the President's decision to
use force against Saddam Hussein and his terrorism" (1/22).
COLORADO DAILY (Boulder) "The nation is at war again.
Those of us who believe in peace must be clear: We must not
extol war. But we must not castigate U.S. soldiers who are doing
only what their country and their duty demand.
In doing so,
however, abhorred. we do not have to glorify war. War is a horror to be
We should pledge 'never again' once more. And we
will (1/19). watch as the next generation ignores what we have learned"
COLUMBIA DAILY SPECTATOR: "At Columbia, the anti-war
rallies have been diminishing in size lately. As various groups
have jumped on the soapbox with their individual causes, the
rallies have lost any purpose for people who are still tentative
about their position and trying to make a decision based on their
protest experience. Cries against U.S. intervention in Nicaragua
and El Salvador, against fur coats, and against the management of
the Daily News should have no part in the rallies against the war
in the Persian Gulf. These demonstrations are not the time or
the place for militant recommendations that the 'corrupt,
imperialist' government of the United States be overthrown.
In so doing, the anti-war protestors are losing their power to
effect change.
This is not 1968 redux. Blockading buildings
on campus will only deprive other students of their education --
it will not convince George Bush to withdraw the troops. The
administration of Columbia has little to say about whether this
war will be fought. We need peaceful, focused, organized rallies
at Columbia to provide outlets for those who want to express
Persian Gulf is not a simple issue. 'No blood for oil' should The not
their feelings toward the war and bring about change
be the only rallying cry; everyone must be aware of the
complexities in order to more knowledgeably reach their own
stance" (1/23).
DAILY CALIFORNIAN (Berkeley) "The Daily Californian has
supported the use of economic sanctions to force Iraqi president
Saddam Hussein to relinquish his hold on Kuwait and continues to
oppose this senseless, bloody and costly military action.
Stopping this war requires a united anti-war effort utilizing
creative and effective tactics that can bring the horrors of war
-- entirely too real for [U.N.] troops, Iraqi civilians, and
every Middle Eastern country from Israel to Turkey -- home to the
average American.
This war can be cut short, lives can be
saved, peace and negotiation can prevail, but only if citizens
express their opposition to the attack with their bodies, voices
and actions. Every moment, every voice counts in these early
hours of war" (1/17).
DAILY KENT STATER: "Campus reaction to the war in the
Persian Gulf is mirroring the reaction of the country
Dialogue, is helpful, but screaming at one another is not.
Violent reactions to protestors and anti-protestors do not bring
peace. Isn't that what we all want anyway? Dialogue and open-
mindedness bring about change. Let's not get caught up in
violence. Hopefully, we've learned this lesson from the past"
(1/23).
DAILY NORTHWESTERN: "As debatable as the policies that
brought American troops into war last night may be, our soldiers
must now have our support. From the newspaper's first day of
publication Fall Quarter, we have opposed any use of force in the
Persian Gulf.
It's too late for that now
'No blood for
oil' is a good slogan, but there will be no peace now. Shouting
for peace shows good intentions, but it's too late to save the
lives of our soldiers. Some of them will die in even a short
war.
Students who detest a war fought largely for oil should
continue to protest. But they must not forget that our soldiers
did not ask for this war and should not be blamed for it.
As
upset as many students are, skipping classes accomplishes
nothing, except to hurt the education students are at NU to
receive" (1/17).
DAILY TEXAN (Austin) "The first phase of the Persian Gulf
War has succeeded, in a military sense, but the war itself
remains tragic, unnecessary and -- it seems -- unstoppable.
As a whole, America will support this war, as it supported
Vietnam. Discontent will not reach a critical level until after
it is too late.
Wars are difficult to stop, and stopping this
one may be impossible. But we have to try. We owe the soldiers
that much" (1/18)
DAILY UNIVERSE (Brigham Young) : "We support the timely
manner that President Bush used in taking action. Once military
conflict became inevitable, Bush didn't hedge or let U.S. troops
and the American people wait in anguish for the first move.
Global anxiety, which served no one but Saddam, has been building
for five months, and its strength had only been reinforced with
the passing of Tuesday's U.N. deadline. Dodging the inevitable,
for any length of time, would have only fueled a potentially
dangerous fire" (1/17)
DUKE CHRONICLE: "As U.S. planes bomb Baghdad and military
families brace themselves for bad news, some war sympathizers
intend to silence the protests. This must not happen. As the
war progresses through its early stages and the Pentagon reports
great success, many do not have the stomach to see or join a
peace rally. But the war will not end this week, and when the
'war euphoria' wears off, the peace movement must be ready and
organized as its membership grows" (1/22)
MICHIGAN DAILY (Ann Arbor) : "Whether we like it or not the
[U.S.] is at war. And though anyone can resort to violence, it
takes strong-willed people to make peace. America must now make
it clear we support peace thought negotiation, not more killing
through war" (1/17). "[W]hile opposition to the war is warranted,
a compulsory draft at this point is necessary. However unjust
the war might be, the greater injustice lies in the fact that the
poor and people color in our society continue to shoulder the
majority of the fighting.
Though technically volunteers,
these troops are part of a de facto poverty draft" (1/23).
PANTHER (Clark College, Atlanta): "with the nation at war,
African-Americans have focused on the great number of African-
Americans in the military. Some are even puzzled by the
president's decision to go to war after vetoing the civil rights
bill. He has sent them to possibly die in 'no man's land.'
African-Americans make up only about 15% of the population
between the ages of 18 and 24, the ages of those who are
constantly finding the armed services more and more attractive.
Some ask, 'Couldn't they find work elsewhere?' Well maybe not,
but that is a social problem. That is a problem with society,
both the white American society, and the African-American
society.
...
Still, African-Americans should not be left with
military service as their best opportunity -- to die for someone
else's country -- because the country refuses them what is
originally theirs" (1/28).
PITT NEWS: "We hope that Operation Desert Storm is
successful. Not because we approve the use of military force in
this situation, but because the scenario if Desert Storm fails
would be horrific" (1/18).
YALE DAILY NEWS: "Antiwar sentiment on campus is not as
pervasive as either last week's repeated rallies or the feeling
that the time is right for a revival of 60's-style activism would
suggest. Saturday's Yale Daily News poll of more than a tenth of
undergraduates showed only 36% opposed to current U.S. military
action. 52% supported the war, while a full 12% -- were unsure"
(1/22).
*3 RACE AND WAR: DISSENT AMONG BLACK HOUSE MEMBERS
During last week's vote, "only 12 House members stuck their
necks out by voting no or present on a resolution supporting U.S.
troops and commending President Bush for his leadership as
commander-in-chief." The "dozen dissenters" -- "10 of whom are
liberal, black members from inner-city, majority-black districts"
-- appear "to have avoided any political damage from the vote"
(Tom Kenworthy, WASH. POST). "The high proportion of black
congressmen -- 10 out of 24 -- voting against the resolution --
reflects the relative lack of enthusiasm for the war among black
Americans." Rep. Craig Washington (D-TX), when asked if there
were any "negative repercussions" from his "no" vote: "Heavens
no.
The biggest complaint I've had is they expected me to
stop [the war] from happening" (1/25).
PUPPETS OR PATRIOTS? Some black critics of the war are
"bitter that their sons and daughters are being sent to war by an
Administration that they see as insensitive to members of
minority groups. Others say that problems like drugs and crime
in this country are more important than Iraq and Kuwait" (Isabel
Wilkerson, N.Y. TIMES). There is, however, "pride and comfort"
among other blacks about Colin Powell as the nations first black
JCS chair. Asst. Defense Sec. Christopher Jehn, on the
disproportionate number of blacks in the military: "Nobody's
making them enlist. They're not victims, they're willing,
patriotic Americans.' Notes Wilkerson, "But critics say the
military is taking advantage of economic conditions that make the
armed forces the only chance for steady work to some black
people. They say such an enlistment amounts to a kind of poverty
draft" (1/25). Conservative activist/ex-MD Sen. candidate Alan
Keyes counters, "The people who choose to fill our military ranks
instead of our jails should be commended. They should be
praised, their choice should be held up to our young people as
the model of their behavior.
Instead of turning this into
another tawdry exhibit in their quest for new government
spending, black leaders should be building it into a foundation
for greater pride in the black community and a more prominent
leadership role for blacks in the community at large" (WASH.
TIMES, 1/25). Columnist Vanessa Gallman: "What change the 'be
all that you can be' military generation will bring remains to be
seen, but it will have consequences for the stability and
progress of this country into the 21st century. That's why its
foolish -- no matter how important the immediate goal -- to
project an image of blacks in the Gulf as puppets or malcontents"
(WASH. TIMES, 1/25).
*4 TELEVISION: THE MEDIUM'S MESSAGE
"MacNeil/Lehrer" examined "the tensions that have erupted
between the press and the Bush administration over the Gulf War,"
both because of CNN's recent report that the U.S. had bombed a
baby's milk factory in Baghdad (quickly claimed by the Pentagon
to be a chemical weapons facility) and because of the Pentagon's
initial restrictions on war coverage. Panelists: Pentagon
spokesperson Pete Williams, Adm Thomas Moorer (Ret.), TIME's
Stanley Cloud and CBS' Morley Safer. Williams: "Everybody says
that Generals are doomed to re-fight the last war, and I think in
a sense press critics are doomed to re-criticize the last war,
too." Safer noted Quayle Wednesday restated Bush's promise of
"No more Vietnams": "He wasn't talking only about military
action -- he was talking about American access to information
about what's hap -- what's going to hap -- what IS happening in
this war" (1/24). Tonight on "M/L": How well the military and
the media is keeping the U.S. public informed. Bill Moyers:
"The United States is at war, and censorship is the necessary
evil that accompanies war.
That's a case to be made, though,
only if your own country is under attack and the nation is
fighting for survival, or if reporting actually would jeopardize
the troops. What's happening in the Persian Gulf is something
else. " One example Moyers offers was when a correspondent's
description of U.S. pilots exuberant over the success of their
first combat mission -- he called them "giddy" -- was changed by
a U.S. military censor to "proud," without the reporter's
knowledge. Moyers: "Journalism was instantly turned into
official propaganda, an extension of the government's vast
publicity machine" (CNN, 1/24). CNN also examined the impact of
the war on advertisers' policies and ad campaigns (1/24) NBC
titled it's story: "Information please.' AP's Richard Pyle:
"Well, I think this may be the tightest restrictions American
reporters have ever had to contend with." One example: U.S.
military press stopped an NBC interview with an Army chaplain --
when "no military secrets were being breached" -- because Saudi
Arabia "is a strict Islamic country where Christian chaplains are
supposed to be keeping a low profile" (1/24). "Crossfire" looked
at the issue with ex-network correspondent Bernie Kalb and Media
Research Center's Brent Bozell. Kalb: "The greatest obligation
you can do to the United States to win this war is to keep on the
side of truth and objectivity and not get bogged down in all this
mindless flag-waving." Bozell: "I don't consider waving the
flag a mindless exercise." Buchanan's conclusion: "In a tie --
a tie goes to the military." Kinsley: "It is not unpatriotic,
as some would like to suggest, to be skeptical
about what the
military is trying to prevent people from reporting" (CNN, 1/24).
A CBS disclaimer: "We are bringing you as best we can all the
news, but we hope you understand, much of it is controlled,
sometimes tightly controlled, by military and political sources
-- on all sides. That's why much of what you see on your screen
says 'cleared by censors'" (Dan Rather's sign-off, 1/24).
OTHER VIEWS
WALTER CRONKITE: "I do not quite see how you can cover a
ground engagement live and not be giving information to the
enemy.
the networks probably ought to attempt it as a matter
of making arrangements with the military to cover as much as they
can, but our arguments so far about censorship to the powers that
be in the Pentagon have ignored the fact that we're fighting a
new kind of war with [TV] now" (CHICAGO TRIBUNE, 1/24).
HODDING CARTER: "What needs to be done right now, before
the killing starts on the ground, is for the reporters to go out
and challenge the system. To directly test it. The government
would be happy to see coverage contained to press pools, but
that's no way to cover a fast-moving war on multiple fronts" (USA
TODAY, 1/25).
CHICAGO TRIBUNE editorial: "[The military] must never
withhold sound data for purely political reasons, or to spare
itself embarrassment.
The media, too, ought to heed the
injunction to smarten up. Some of their -- our -- practices
could stand more scrutiny" (1/24).
N.Y. POST editorial: "As for withholding information, we
hope the Pentagon is doing just that. The first task for the
U.S. military is to win the war, not to educate the press and --
via the press -- Saddam Hussein as to allied strategy.
we'd
sooner see a story missed than a coalition soldier or an innocent
civilian die because some news report helped Saddam improve his
aim" (1/25).
GERMOND & WITCOVER: "At some point down the road, the White
House inevitably will be obliged to deal with any discrepancies
between the picture it is presenting and the facts the press
finally assembles. If those discrepancies are significant, a
backlash against the war policy may be inevitable" (Balto.
EVENING SUN, 1/24).
USA TODAY: A poll conducted by Frank Magdid Assoc., of 647
adult TV viewers, found 54% "said the media have the right amount
of freedom to move around. But 24% said the media have too much
freedom; 17% said the media are too restricted. 52% "said the
government and military are not manipulating the media" (1/24)
WASH. TIMES editorial: "The reporters do have some worthy
points: 'Pool coverage' is silly
[They] are also right to
question the sincerity of military escorts and censors.
[But]
The overlook the fact that there's no real way to cover an air
war.
a) there aren't that many gettable stories right now and
b) reporters are behaving as if they have a divine right to every
available scrap of information" (1/25).
*5 KEATING 5: TRANSCRIPT OF CRANSTON SESSION HINTS AT SANCTIONS
After the Senate Ethics Committee concluded two months of
public hearings last week, the transcript of a 10/16/90 panel
session with Sen. Alan Cranston (D-CA) was released that gives "a
possible glimpse of members' thinking" as they prepare to begin
deliberations 1/30. Committee members "appeared troubled by
aspects" of Cranston's relationship with Keating and seemed
"particularly concerned about the role of Cranston's chief
fundraiser, Joy Jacobson, played in the operation of" Cranston's
office. Committee vice-chair Warren Rudman (R-NH) "questioned
Cranston extensively" about a 9/87 Jacobson memo to Cranston
regarding an upcoming meeting with Keating. Jacobson in the
letter: "I have attached an article from the Wall Street Journal
which talks about the views of the new [FHLBB] Chairman Danny
Wall, views that are obviously good news to Keating. You should
ask Keating for $250,000." Rudman: "I happen to think it
reaches some kind of a threshold, that kind of a memorandum,
although, as you say, you did not write it.
It is really the
appearance here of impropriety more than it is the violation of a
specific rule that I think is the central issue we are dealing
with in this case.
I will tell you, quite frankly, that I
think I can say fairly that when every member of the committee
first reviewed that, it really was a startling kind of a
document." Cranston's session with the panel "concluded a 10-
month probe by the committee's special counsel, Robert Bennett,
and offered Cranston a last chance to argue against the
scheduling of public proceedings, which began a month later."
Cranston, on the memo: "I think it should also be taken into
consideration in the context of whether I did anything improper.
I did not.
I know of no reason for more investigation
Get
this over with before all hopes of restoring my cherished
reputation for integrity is lost" (Mark Barabak, SAN DIEGO UNION,
1/25).
COME JUDGMENT DAY: W.S. JOURNAL editorial: "We have a fair
degree of tolerance for watching sausages and laws being made,
but somewhere in this morass a line has to be drawn. If Mr.
Keating got only constituent service, then constituent service
has to go" (1/24). Balto. SUN editorial: "Senators say their
responsibility to help constituents applies to those who make
campaign contributions as well as to those who do not and that
there is no clear dividing line between ethical and unethical
assistance to a contributor. They are right that the line is not
perfectly clear. But there is a line and men and women smart
enough to get elected to the U.S. Senate can distinguish.
However the committee decides to deal with the five men, it
should make as clear as it can the distinctions in their behavior
that brings about distinctions in recommended punishments"
(1/23). DETROIT FREE PRESS editorial: "Last fall
[Sen.
Donald Riegle (D-MI) ] welcomed the hearings. He described the
process as an opportunity 'to fully and fairly inform the public'
on what he actually had and hadn't done. 'When all the facts are
known, the public will see that all my actions were proper, Sen.
Riegle promised. Well, the hearings ended
...
But it is clear
already that Sen. Riegle failed to pass the test by his own
standard. He said a lot but explained little" (1/23). WASH.
POST frames the question by saying the committee "must now decide
whether and how the behavior of the Keating Five differs from
what normal senators do every day
The Ethic Committee is not
limited to finding violations of particular Senate rules.
Yes, it's a gray world up there, but it's possible to distinguish
between right and wrong. That's the Ethics Committee's job;
that's why they call it ethics" (1/22).
*6 ROLLINS, NUTTLE, DARMAN: "THREE SHOCKS HIT THE GOP"
PHILA. INQUIRER headline: "Bush challenger quits GOP job."
NRCC co-chair Ed Rollins "confirmed yesterday that he is leaving
effective March 1 and taking a job with Sawyer-Miller, a
political and corporate communications firm" (Carl Cannon, 1/25).
The heretofore Dem firm most recently handled Harvey Gantt's
challenge to Sen. Jesse Helms (R-NC) in '90. Rollins said Quayle
adviser Spencer Abraham has been offered Rollins' job. "One
source said Rollins wanted to defy White House efforts to oust
him by remaining for several months after the November election
'to show the White House couldn't run him off'" (Schwartz/Edsall,
WASH. POST, 1/25). NRCC director Marc Nuttle also will leave and
"will raise capital to help Republicans win congressional seats.
Both men originally had planned to stay through the 1992
elections. Both said yesterday they were not forced out" (Ralph
Hallow, WASH. TIMES, 1/25).
NEWT & DICK: Yesterday "The White House, helped by House
Minority Whip Newt Gingrich, beat back a resolution by [RNC]
anti-taxers calling on President Bush to fire Budget Director
RIchard Darman. RNC member Morton Blackwell of VA "was warned
indirectly by Mr. Gingrich that pushing the anti-Darman
resolution would be bad for his political health." Backers of
the dump-Darman resolution plan to bring the resolution before
the full RNC today" (Hallow, WASH. TIMES, 1/25).
*7 YEUTTER: DEMS' IRE; BUSH DOESN'T DISAGREE WITH WAR COMMENTS
On the day he is to be voted in an RNC Chair, Ag Sec.
Clayton Yeutter "has stirred up a political storm" with his
comments about the partisan consequences of Dem votes against
Bush's use-of-force resolution (John Mashek, BOSTON GLOBE)
House Speaker Tom Foley and DNC Chair Ron Brown joined Sen. Bob
Kerrey (D-NE), who Yeutter had singled out (see HOTLINE 1/24 #1),
in criticizing Yeutter. Foley called it a "political scare
tactic
I think his judgment has deserted him. Brown, who
called the comments a "disgrace," expressed additional anger over
an NRSC letter, under NRSC Chair Phil Gramm's signature, which
appealed for funds to help defeat "these wolves in sheep's
clothing
appeasement-before-country liberals." The White
House hedged in its backing of Yeutter's comments with
spokesperson Marlin Fitzwater saying, "We think it was a vote of
conscience. We're not trying to make it a partisan issue, " but
adding, "there was a certain partisanship about the way the votes
were cast" (1/25). Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA) said that Bush
yesterday "agreed with Mr. Yeutter." House. Min. Whip Newt
Gingrich said Bush "certainly did not disagree." Gingrich "said
he agreed with" Yeutter personally: "It was a serious choice of
where America ought to go and people should be measured by it."
RNC spokesperson Jay Cooper: "What Yeutter was saying is that it
is an issue of leadership in 1992. We're very pleased that after
the vote, there was a closing of ranks in Congress" (Frank
Murray, WASH. TIMES, 1/25). A WH aide "acknowledged that it was
customary that the [RNC chair] and the vice president play a
partisan role in politics, permitting the president to be
statesmanlike" (GLOBE, 1/25). When reporters asked Bush
yesterday about Yeutter's comments, Yeutter interjected, "You
need a little more precision on what Mr. Yeutter said." Notes
Finlay Lewis, "He did not elaborate." Gov. Mario Cuomo (D-NY),
in a TV interview yesterday, pointed to similar recent comments
by Bill Bennett: "To convert this into a political platform I
think is worse than bad taste" (COPLEY NEWS SERVICE, 1/25)
LINCOLN STAR editorial calls Yeutter "wrong to turn war into
partisan battle.
playing politics with the war at this early
date is not appropriate.
Yeutter's comments were wrong and
dumb.
This war may or may have an 80 percent approval rating
in 1992" (1/24) Other headlines: "GOP boss ruffles Dem doves'
feathers" (N.Y. POST, 1/25). "Political Warfare Erupts Over
Gulf" (WASH. POST, 1/25).
DALLAS MORNING NEWS' Carl Leubsdorf agrees with Yeutter's
assessment: "the initial successes at the onset of the fighting
pose the prospect of dire political consequences for [Dems]
virtually every top Democrat has taken an enormous political risk
that could undercut the party's 1992 challenge to Mr. Bush.
if the president's decision succeeds in liberating Kuwait and
perhaps also destroying Saddam Hussein's military, nuclear and
chemical capability, there seems little doubt that not only Mr.
Bush but the entire GOP will be able to benefit politically from
Democratic opposition.
about the only way that the [Dems] can
benefit is from a highly costly or unsuccessful war, as well as
from economic hard times if one result of the conflict is to
deepen or lengthen the current recession" (1/25).
HOTSPOTS
*8 GEORGIA: HERE A GOV, THERE A GOV
Ex-Pres./ex-Gov. Jimmy Carter will attend today's gathering
of ex-govs. to honor the GA Government Documentation project.
Carter, who "had planned to be in Africa," canceled his trip when
the Gulf War broke out and will join Gov. Zell Miller (D) and ex-
govs. Herman Talmadge, Ernest Valdiver, Carl Sanders, Lester
Maddox, George Busbee and Joe Frank Harris at the ceremony.
Ellis Arnall, "the only other living [GA] governor, is in poor
health and can't attend" (ATLANTA JOURNAL-CONSTITUTION, 1/24).
*9 ILLINOIS: EDGAR MAY BE ORDERED TO INCREASE SPENDING
Gov. Jim Edgar (R) may face "still another big obstacle
as he tries to balance the [IL] budget while keeping his promise
not to raise taxes." The ACLU filed a suit against the Dept. of
Children and Family Services (DCFS), proposing that instead of
"removing abused and neglected children from their parent's
homes,' the DCFS leave the children at home while providing the
parents with counseling and homemakers to help clean and cook and
teach these skills to the parents. In the settlement, U.S.
District Judge John Grady could order Edgar and the General
Assembly to "budget tens of millions of dollars more" for DCFS.
A panel of 13 child-welfare experts appointed by the judge to
study the problem has already come to the conclusion that the
"system is in a horrible mess that can only be fixed with huge
new infusions of money." If no settlement is reached in the
negotiations that have been going on since last summer, the case
would go to trial this summer or fall. If IL is ordered to
budget more money for the DCFS, it "will join the growing list of
states in which public policy, especially in the fields of human
services and education, is being made not by elected officials
but by court decree" (Karwath, CHIC. TRIB., 1/24).
*10 MARYLAND: SCHAEFER BUDGET PROGRAM BLASTED
Balto. EVENING SUN's Frank DeFilippo writes Gov. Wm. Donald
Schaefer "sounded like a cross between Little Orphan Annie and
Doctor Gloom" in both his inaugural address and his state of the
state speech -- and both speeches "were calculated attempts to
shuck off the funk he's been in since his disappointing numbers
(59 percent) in the November election.
For the most part,
Schaefer was a ditzy burble of optimism. Beset by a nose-diving
economy at home and an uncertain war abroad
Schaefer was
reflecting more of the reckless '80s than the new reality of the
'90s" as he "talked about stepping out and doing bold things,
about state government setting the pace by continuing to build
roads, highways and light rail systems" (1/24).
*11 MASSACHUSETTS: WELD PLAN CALLS FOR STATE WORKER FURLOUGHS
Hoping to cut $90 million from a budget that's $850 million
in the red, Gov. William Weld (R) "plans to require 63,000 state
employees to take a two-week unpaid furlough." The proposal "is
almost certain to face opposition from the state's public
employee unions." Described as an "unfortunate but necessary
part of the budgetary crisis plan of action," the furloughs are
"most likely to be conducted on a staggered basis -- for
virtually all executive branch employees over the next five
months." AFSCME spokesperson Tom O'Connor, "noting the state
deficit is partly the result of a fall-off in sales taxes, said
it would be "absurd" to lay off workers during the current
recession: "Let's put thousands more people out there without
income and see what happens." He also said "that Weld will have
to negotiate an OK from the public employee unions on the planned
furlough and, failing that, would need to go to the Legislature
for approval." Weld: "We've got some work to do. We've made
the decision that we're going to take whatever medicine we have
to take in order to close our budget deficit for 1992 and 1991
without raising taxes" (BOSTON HERALD, 1/24).
HIGHER WAGES, FEWER JOBS IN GOV'S OFFICE: Even though Weld
"has made a substantial cut in the number of employees and the
overall payroll costs in the governor's office, he is paying
higher wages than predecessor Michael Dukakis did. Weld's office
"employs 44 people
with an average annual salary of $41,347,"
while Dukakis "paid 63 employees an average salary of $34, 072.'
Weld spokesperson Ray Howell: "The governor wanted to reduce the
size of his own staff, both to save money and eliminate some of
the bureaucracy that creates inefficiency. And since he was
asking fewer people to do the same amount of work, he thought
they should be compensated accordingly" (HERALD, 1/24).
*12 MISSOURI: ALL IN THE FAMILY
The MO state Senate became the only state Senate nationwide
to house a mother/son team, when Steve Danner was sworn in 1/9.
Danner was the only successful challenger to defeat an incumbent
Senator, winning the 28th district. Danner's mother, Pat Danner
has held the seat in district 12 since 1982. According to the
National Conference on State Legislators, father/son teams are
more common (Balto. EVENING SUN, 1/24).
*13 SOUTH CAROLINA: WAR VOTE PROMPTS HARTNETT SENATE RUN?
Ex-Rep. Tommy Hartnett (R) "said
he is seriously
considering" challenging Sen. Ernest Hollings (D) in 1992.
Hartnett "said his interest [in the race] was picqued" by
Hollings' vote against authorizing the use of force against Iraq.
Hartnett said he was "ashamed" of Hollings' vote: "It appears
the Russians did more for us in the United Nations than Fritz
Hollings did in the U.S. Senate." Hollings "enters the 1992
contest with high name recognition and a considerable war chest."
He "easily" won his last two races, garnering 70% in '80 and 63%
in '86. Hartnett gave up his seat in 1986 in an unsuccessful bid
for LG. He said he supports congressional term limits and
admitted that it will be "a gargantuan task to defeat any
incumbent senator anywhere." A possible Hartnett candidacy "was
first proposed" two years ago by RNC Chair Lee Atwater, who
promised "to pull out every stop I could as chairman" to defeat
Hollings (Charleston NEWS & COURIER, 1/24).
CALIFORNIA CABLE
*14 L.A. COUNTY SUPERVISOR: ROUND 2
City Councilmember Gloria Molina (D) and state Sen. Art
Torres (D) "have four weeks to WOO voters in the 1st District
before the Feb. 19 runoff for a seat on the five-member Board of
Supervisors, which will be transformed from conservative control
to a 3-2 liberal majority no matter who wins." Though Molina
received 35% of the vote to Torres' 26%, she lacked the majority
needed to avoid a runoff (see HOTLINE 1/23 #10). Both are now
actively soliciting the support of the two other major candidates
state Sen. Charles Calderon (D) and ex-Sup. Schabarum aide Sarah
Flores (R) who received 16% and 20% of the vote, respectively.
The runoff is set for 2/19 (Simon/Stewart, L.A. TIMES, 1/24).
Meanwhile, "competing factions of Latino Democrats have also
begun to quietly compete for either the City Council seat or
state Senate seat that will be vacated by the winner of the Feb.
19 election." In Molina's corner are U.S. Reps. Esteban Torres
(D-34) and Ed Roybal (D-25), deputy L.A. Mayor Ed Avila, and
Assemblywoman Lucile Roybal-Allard. In Torres', Councilmembers
Richard Alatorre and Michael Woo, Assemblyman Richard Polanco and
Deputy Mayor Mark Fabiani. Molina manager Alma Martinez and
Assemblywoman Roybal-Allard are possible candidates for Molina's
council seat. Assemblyman Polanco has been mentioned for Torres'
Senate seat (Hector Tobar, L.A. TIMES, 1/24).
CAMPAIGNS '91
*15 KENTUCKY GOVERNOR: BUCK'S OUT, GALBRAITH LACKS BUCKS
Leonard "Buck" Beasley (R) said he would not run for gov.
and will support Larry Forgy. Beasley instead will run for ag.
commissioner. Also, "pro-marijuana" lawyer Gatewood Galbraith
filed for the Dem nomination, paying the $20 filing fee "with
what he said was borrowed money. Other candidates in the race
are GOPers Barry Barmore, Art Eddleman and Dem Ed Logedon. Other
Dems filing 1/24: Pike County Judge-Exec. Paul Patton for LG;
Drex Davis, Jr., son of former treasurer and sec. of state
Drexell Davis, for state treasurer; and Nelson County Magistrate
Joe "Rooster Run" Evans for sec. of state (Al Cross, Louisville
COURIER-JOURNAL, 1/25). HOTLINE sources report KY first lady
Martha Wilkinson (D) will file 1/28, one day before deadline, and
Rep. Larry Hopkins (R) will file today.
WALLY'S WORLD OF ILLUSION: LEXINGTON HERALD-LEADER's Bill
Bishop writes, "For a guy who wants to be governor so bad it must
hurt him at night, Wallace Wilkinson [D] has shown little
interest in governing. The two are separate, being governor and
governing. The first requires a total devotion to self. The
general, the governor has shown in three years that he is good In
governor has shown a talent for this part of the job.
with money. The rest of state government, the day-to-day
about. Unless, of course, the tinkering tends to help the
tinkering with programs and policy, I don't see him giving a flip
election chances of wife/candidate Martha" (1/23).
*16 AUSTIN MAYOR: COOKE WILL NOT SEEK SECOND TERM
Popular Austin Mayor Lee Cooke announced he will not run for
re-election to a second term. "Cooke said he agonized over the
decision, but arrived at it after weighing personal and economic
first. factors.' The 48-year-old Cooke: "I've always put the city
I don't know that I've been very balanced. I could
wake up one morning and be 55 years old and not have a family,
not have a spouse or a personal life. I've got to do other
things with my life." Cooke "emphasized that his stepping down
is not a signal that he is running for state or federal office."
Potential candidates: Council members Robert Barnstone and Max
Nofziger; and former Mayors Jeff Friedman and Frank Cooksy, both
of whom Cooke defeated in '88 (Austin AMERICAN-STATESMAN, 1/24).
*17 DALLAS MAYOR: SMITH ENTERS A RACE W/O AN ELECTION DAY
Dallas atty. Forrest Smith said 1/22 "he is prepared to run
for mayor as soon as a federal judge orders an election." Smith
on his inexperience: "They want a new brand of leadership and
The city has asked U.S. District Judge Jerry Buchmeyer to
that's what I'm offering" (David Jackson, DALLAS MORNING NEWS).
schedule a November election under the 10-4-1 plan, using new
census figures. The plan would elect 10 council members from
single-member districts, four from larger regional districts, and
elect the mayor citywide. Buchmeyer "struck down the city's
present election system" in 1990. Smith said he supported the
10-4-1 plan and then the 14-1 (all council members elected at-
large) plan in the two recent referendums: "I favor whatever the
City Council and the judge come up with.
...
I just want to get
on with it" (1/23). Another possible candidate for Mayor,
Councilperson Jerry Barlos, repeated chances are "overwhelming"
he will run for mayor if Rep. Steve Bartlett does not; Barlos is
a "longtime supporter" of Bartlett's. If Barlos runs he will
make a top priority "to restore some order and direction in the
city, in city business. Dallas does a lousy job of economic
development, if it even does a job. We've got to put some meat
on that table.' Bartlett could not be reached for comment.
Other possible candidates are Council member Jim Buerger, ex-
Dallas County judge candidate Kathryn Cain and ex-Mayor Jack
Evans. Mayor Annette Strauss (D) has not yet announced her
intention to seek another term (Jackson, DMN, 1/24). The date
for the race remains unscheduled.
*18 SAN ANTONIO MAYOR: LET THE PEOPLE BE HEARD
"It is not quite [the] Target '90" that ex-Mayor Henry
Cisneros introduced in the early '80's, but mayoral
candidate/council member Nelson Wolff unveiled his "San Antonio
Tomorrow" plan in front of a group of seventh graders 1/23
(Stuart Eskenazi, SAN ANTONIO LIGHT). Wolff told the youngsters,
"You all are the ones who are going to have to live with what we
do. And if we don't do it right, you're not going to be happy."
The plan launches a group of "citizen task forces," expected to
number 50 to 100 per group, to focus on themes of jobs, education
and neighborhoods. Before being elected to Council in 1987,
Wolff served as chair of Target '90 but says the two differ in
that San Antonio Tomorrow will seek out the views of ordinary
citizens. Wolff also does not plan to introduce the group's
report, to be released 4/13, to Council, but will instead "add
its ideas into his administrative priorities" if elected in the
5/4 election. Wolff: "I intend to be elected, but I think it
will be a good and valuable help whether I'm elected or not"
(1/24). According to the most recent campaign finance reports
filed by Wolff, he had raised $104,765 for the election, and
hopes to raise "between $400,000 and $500,000" according to his
manager Ramiro Cavozos. Mayor Lala Cockree, and fellow mayoral
candidates councilperson Maria Berriozabal and ex-councilmember
Van Archer had not filed reports (Jeannie Dever, LIGHT, 1/12).
POLL UPDATE
*19 NBC/WSJ: SUPPORT FOR BUSH DIVIDES ALONG RACIAL LINES
808 registered voters were interviewed ON 1/23 by the
polling organizations of Peter Hart and Robert Teeter. The
margin of error is +/- 3.5% (NBC, 1/24; W.S. JOURNAL, 1/25).
NOW
12/90
Bush job approval:
NOW
WHITE
BLACK
WHITE
BLACK
77%
81%
48%
60%
26%
QUESTION: Agree that Bush waited long enough before using
military force.
WHITE 78%
BLACK 52%
QUESTION: Agree that Bush should have given sanctions more time
to work.
WHITE 19%
BLACK 39%
QUESTION: Please tell me whether you think the U.S. and allies
should or should not continue the war in order to
SHOULD
SHOULD NOT
force Iraq to withdraw from
Kuwait
91%
7%
destroy Iraq's offensive
military capabilities
87
10
capture of kill Saddam Hussein
73
21
QUESTION: If it appears that the war will cost thousands of
American casualties, do you think the United States should
continue the war until we achieve our objectives, or seek a
negotiated settlement to end the war?
CONTINUE WAR 56%
SEEK A SETTLEMENT
38%
ALSO
- 73% / 23% say Pentagon has been open / not open enough with
media.
- 25% / 40% believe the economy will get better / worse in the
next 12 months.
- 55% expect the war to last three months or more.
- 73% think it is likely that the war will lead to a major
terrorist attack in the U.S.
- 87% believe it is likely the war will widen, with Israel
being drawn into it.
- 60% says it has lost respect for anti-war protesters.
- 54% find it likely the U.S. will get bogged down in a
lengthy land war.
- 55% think it likely that the nation will become seriously
divided over whether to continue the war.
TV MONITOR
*20 8:30 A.M. HEADLINES: 1. "Clear weather allows intensive
bombing to continue in Iraq and Kuwait after a day that saw a
record 3,000 air missions. 2. The Pentagon denies a report that
Saddam Hussein was the target of Allied war planes last week. 3.
Iraqi television carries pictures of three more Americans said to
be captured pilots" (CBS).
THIS MORNING: Johns Hopkins' Fouad Ajami: "Clearly the
Egyptians are a key player in this coalition
...
[Egypt]
is
on
the side of enforcing the U.N. resolutions and sanctions. [But]
the opposition press
is pointing out the pampered Kuwaiti
children and saying 'how can we have a situation where these kids
are idling the nights away
...
while our Egyptian boys are on the
front" (CBS). NBC interviewed pollsters Peter Hart and Robert
Teeter. Randall Pinkerton: "Republican congressional leaders
are
also beginning to blame the media for creating the idea
that the war would be over quickly" (CBS).
LAST NIGHT: ABC's "PrimeTime Live" examined what a ground
war would be like, and promised to show "a side of Saddam you've
never seen before" -- and in earlier shows teased with a clip of
Saddam swimming with a little girl in his arms. CNN and NBC
examined the impact of the war and its news on U.S. children; ABC
is planning a special for children with Peter Jennings this
Saturday a.m. ABC and CBS gave an in-depth look at the threat of
terrorism; CBS focused on that again on "America Tonight." CNN's
"Special Assignment" looked at the leader of a primary terrorist
group, Abu Abbas. ABC's CNN's "Crossfire" debated the censorship
and the media's role in reporting the war.
WAR LINE: ABC: "In the battle itself, 51 Iraqis taken
prisoner, as a speck of Kuwaiti territory falls into Allied
hands" (Jennings). The CBS promo: "The air war heats up for top
guns over the Persian Gulf." NBC described the air battle when
the Saudi pilot downed two Iraqi planes: "It was Arab against
Arab" (Tom Brokaw). NBC's Arthur Kent continued, "Militarily and
politically, the broader participation of Allied air forces in
the air war is bad news for Saddam Hussein. And if what is going
on in the air holds true on the ground, then this alliance will
be much more powerful than first expected."
BOMB SADDAM? "U.S. officials insist there is no official
allied policy to hunt Saddam Hussein down and take him out. That
doesn't mean, necessarily, there's no effort to find him, bomb
him and kill him" (Rather, CBS). Rep. Bob Clement (D-TN) : "I
encourage the allied forces to look seriously in terms of
shortening this war by Saddam being a target." Sen. Al D'Amato
(R-NY) "Whether we target him by way of a mission of search and
destroy, or capturing and taking him out." However, Rep. Lee
Hamilton (D-IN) : "If he is persuaded that our objective is to
kill him, then he really has no reason to negotiate at all"
(CBS). ABC's "PrimeTime" looked at "the other side" of Saddam
Hussein -- "The sanitized Saddam" -- with pictures from his
family album. Still, ABC called violence "a family affair," and
cited reports Saddam Hussein had his brother-in-law killed.
PROTESTS: CBS and ABC covered the public backlash in
Arcata, CA when the City Council declared the town a sanctuary
for war protestors -- as San Francisco, Berkeley and Oakland have
also done -- with ABC noting "thousands" of residents protested.
A sign at a demonstration: "My son is a Marine in the Middle
East.' "Because of the uproar,' the City Council rescinded the
resolution and apologized. City Councilwoman Lynne Canning, at a
public meeting, to cheers: "I apologize to all of you who heard
our statement as a sign of disrespect to our troops in the Gulf,
their families here at home, or the veterans that have gone
before them." CBS's John Blackstone summarized the question of
patriotism being asked across the country: "Is it possible to
love the flag, and at the same time oppose the war?" One
demonstrator: "God Bless the silent majority" (CBS). ABC's
Chris Burie followed with a story on Kent State, opening with
students chanting "USA, USA": "This time, the loudest chants
support American policy." At the student newspaper, the KENT
STATER, letters to the editor are running 3-to-1 in support of
U.S. action in the Gulf (for KENT editorial, see #2).
"OTHER NEWS OF OTHER TROUBLE": That's ABC's intro to a
report saying the Soviet Ambassador to the U.S. meets with
Sec/State Jim Baker Saturday, when he "is bound to hear a formal
protest" over Soviet action in the Baltics. Rep. Bob Michel (R-
IL) quoted Bush as saying in his meeting with Congressional
leaders, "I know Gorbachev has the message. We don't want to
overreact; however, statements by the Congress are very helpful."
Brit Hume reported "informed officials" say next month's planned
summit will be called off, because "The White House feels it has
little other leverage" (ABC).
HOME FIRES STILL BURN: Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS) "There
are some very serious economic concerns; we do have problems in
education, the president feels very strongly and he mentioned
that today, that some of these things need to be dealt with by
the Congress, and not just in a way that adds more funds to the
spending side of the ledger. CBS's Wyatt Andrews: "The
financial drain of Desert Storm
will wipe out any chance of a
peace dividend and reduce the chance of any new, fully funded
domestic program.' Andrews said some are predicting a U.S.
deficit this year of $400 billion -- while just this past fall,
Budget Director Richard Darman was promising a deficit of just
$65 billion.
LATVIRAQ: "I've come up with what I think is a pretty good
plan to end the war right now. Why don't we just tell Gorbachev
that Iraq is really a Soviet Republic trying to get independence.
He'll send some tanks in, [and] they'll crush that thing in no
time" (Jay Leno, "Tonight, NBC).
TV SOUNDBITE
"Everybody says that Generals are doomed to re-fight the
last war, and I think in a sense press critics are doomed to
re-criticize the last war, too.'
-- Pentagon's Pete Williams, "MacNeil/Lehrer," PBS, 1/24
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--- THE DAILY BRIEFING ON AMERICAN POLITICS
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Updated Each Morning At 11:30
(c) The American Political Network, Inc.
282 North Washington Street, Falls Church, VA (703) 237-5130
FREE AT LAST, ROLLINS ROLLIN'
SPOTLIGHT
'90 GOP turnout worst since
Watergate; sees second "budget
JOCKEYING ON CA FREEWAY
fiasco" in '91; urges GOP shift
from annihilation to attrition,
With 1996 implications
with "kamikaze" mentality. (#4)
for both national tickets:
SENATE SEAT I: First poll
REDISTRICTING ROUNDUP (#5)
shows Feinstein lead over
FL: Hutto CD softened for GOP?
Seymour -- but only 36%/25%
MO: Horn VOWS re-election bid.
("someone else" gets 11%).
MT: Williams "early favorite."
Rep. Boxer is said to be
NY: Green-Weiss "showdown"?
considering challenging
TX: Suburban Houston GOP CD?
Feinstein for this seat,
VA: Wilder faces NAACP push.
given odds against women
winning both seats. (#15)
NOT IN MY HOUSE: BIGFOOT RULES
SENATE SEAT II: Jerry
The Majority and Minority
Brown quits as CA Dem chair
Leaders of the House (MO 03 and
to prepare run for Cranston
IL 18) have lost constituents
seat (with Party post
and could face redistricting
favored to go to Willie
peril, right? Fat chance. (#6)
Brown candidate). (#16)
THE GOV: Wilson is more
NH SEN: RUDMAN STILL UNDECIDED
popular (favorables at 65%)
Gregg, Dems await move. (#12)
than his budget. (#17)
RACE & GENDER GAP ON WAR (#21)
ALSO: DCCC's Francis says
Should U.S. "begin diplomatic
CA has 20 competitive House
steps now" or "start a ground
seats in '92 (#4). Late CA
war without initiating any
redistricting czar Burton
diplomatic activity first?"
keeps drawing lines, this
MEN WOM WHT BLK
one from Ed Rollins (#7).
DIPLOMACY NOW 49% 65 56 78
San Francisco Mayor (#18).
GROUND WAR
45
26
37
21
QUOTE OF THE DAY
"The mother of all political battles"
-- Insider label for a possible California Senate
primary between Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer,
Jerry Roberts, SAN FRANCISCO CHRONICLE, 2/5 (#15)
(c) 1991 by the American Political Network, Inc. Any
reproduction -- by photocopy, FAX, or other form -- in whole
or in part, is a violation of federal law and is strictly
prohibited without the consent of APN. All rights reserved.
HOTLINE/DATABASE INDEX
WHITE HOUSE '92
POWELL: "For a superior America: Powell, '96." (#1)
QUAYLE: The QDL -- Quayle anti-defamation league. (#2)
CUOMO: Budget proposal weighed in 1992 context. (#3)
FOCUS
NRCC: Rollins keeps going out with a bang. (#4)
REDISTRICTING
STATE REPORT: FL, MO, MT, NY, TX, VA. (#5)
NOT IN MY HOUSE: Gephardt and Michel survive redistricting. (#6)
PHIL BURTON: Still drawing lines. (#7)
HOTSPOTS
AZ: Sting. (#8)
FL: Chiles under fire for sexist remarks. (#9)
MD: Schaefer in deep S--- over remark. (#10)
MA: Conte recovers from blood clot. (#11)
NH: Rudman in '92? Still undecided. (#12)
TX: Hightower to head alliance opposing S&L bailout. (#13)
WA: Senate leader may challenge Gardner in '92. (#14)
CALIFORNIA CABLE
SENATE. WATCH: Brown retires as Dem chair for run. (#15)
DEM CHAIR: Angelides, Fine square off to replace Brown. (#16)
POLL: Wilson more popular than his budget plan. (#17)
S.F. MAYOR: Agnos team together; Jordan has early $uccess. (#18)
CAMPAIGNS '91
AZ GOV: Symington, assessor fought over property values. (#19)
LA GOV: Duke late on 3 years of tax payments. (#20)
POLL UPDATE
Public says negotiate while war goes on (but gender gap) (#21)
TV MONITOR (#22)
Budget reax
...
aid to the states
...
war round-up.
???? OVERLOOKED ????
Harken Energy Corp. of Dallas, TX, which has an exclusive oil
concession with the Persian Gulf "island sheikdom" of Bahrain,
also has George W. Bush as its director.
-- courtesy of Curtis Lang, VILLAGE VOICE, 2/5 issue.
WHITE HOUSE '92
*1 POWELL: "FOR A SUPERIOR AMERICA: POWELL, '96"
That's the '96 presidential slogan "already in the can" for
Gen. Colin Powell (?), according to BOSTON GLOBE's Derrick
Jackson -- and, "If the United States wins the war, no figure
stands to gain more political ground." Powell is "perfect for
these militaristic times perfect for these telegenic times
perfect for these racial times
Some analysts predict
that Doug Wilder, a more conservative African-American, might get
on the Democratic ticket." But a victorious Powell on the GOP
ticket "could make the Democrats gag. Powell can talk immigrant
talk. His parents are from Jamaica. He can talk bootstrap. He
rose from a C college average to a master's degree in business
administration. He can talk macho patriot talk. He has a Purple
Heart. He can talk black talk. He always credits his position
to the struggle of African-Americans long gone." And Powell "can
talk leadership." The National Assn. of Black Journalists, with
many members "highly critical of the Reagan-Bush era, gave
Powell a standing ovation at a 1989 speech, and Jesse Jackson
said Powell is a man of "discipline and insight." GLOBE's
Jackson adds, "Many white people, and even some hard-boiled
racists, will accept Powell because his authority is invested in
carrying out U.S. government policy" (2/3).
BUT BEFORE '96
Talk of Powell as VP in '92 "has become
so rampant that pundits and pollsters in both parties are now
pondering the possibilities. It is "on the minds of many
Republican political operatives -- though doubtless not as much
as it is on the mind of Vice President Dan Quayle, who has won
the dubious distinction as the most joked about public figure of
1990.
Powell's extraordinary popularity also must be gnawing
at Secretary of State James A. Baker III, who for months has been
reported to be harboring ambitions of dislodging Quayle as Bush's
running mate on the 1992 ticket as a steppingstone to running for
president in 1996" (Michael Kilian, CHICAGO TRIBUNE, 2/3). On
"McLaughlin Group" this weekend, Fred Barnes predicted, "The
clamor for President Bush to replace Vice President Quayle next
year with General Colin Powell will rise, and rise, and rise --
but Bush will stick with Quayle" (2/2).
*2 QUAYLE: THE QDL -- QUAYLE ANTI-DEFAMATION LEAGUE
Unveiled at a surprise birthday party for the 44-year old VP
was a new "grass-roots" organization, Friends of Dan Quayle.
Newly-elected pres. John Piper: "We think this party is going to
lend us a lot of credibility. We want a new grass-roots group we
can call upon when we see something in the media we disagree with
or find unfair. And we're going to pepper the papers with
letters to the editor" (Donnie Radcliffe, WASH. POST, 2/5). N.Y.
DAILY NEWS' Lars-Erik Nelson reports the BBC last Friday
reported: "Quayle was unable to avoid the direct question from
his interviewer" and "refused to rule out nuclear weapons as an
option" in the Gulf "if Iraq uses unconventional weapons" (2/3).
*3 CUOMO: BUDGET PROPOSAL WEIGHED IN '92 CONTEXT
C.S. MONITOR's Lucia Mouat examines Cuomo's budget proposal
and compares NY's '91 fiscal situation with that of MA and
Dukakis after the '88 election. Cuomo "has built a different
case from that of Mr. Dukakis for his own personal strengths.
[He] emphasizes his leadership qualities rather than his
managerial ability. Unlike Dukakis, Cuomo has not singled out
his state as a lone success story for which he takes credit.
Also, conditions surrounding the 1992 race are likely to be far
different from those of four years before." Barnard College's
Demetrios Caraley: "Anyone running against him might question
why he allowed deficits to occur when there was still prosperity
and why he borrowed money, rolling over the debts rather than
liquidating them.' NYU's Mitchell Moss, on '92: "It's the
incumbent's race to lose. The governor
would not be judged
on his performance on the [NY] economy.
I think the best
Cuomo can do is take charge of the state economy and maintain a
low profile on the war" (2/4). "By limiting the tax increases he
proposes and largely handling the deficit through spending cuts,
Cuomo may answer those who say he can't be president because he
is just another tax-and-spend liberal Democrat" (Rex Smith,
NEWSDAY, 2/4). N.Y. POST's Ray Kerrison criticizes Cuomo for
proposing to sell Aqueduct racetrack for $200 million, "with $100
million of the procêeds going to [NY] to help plug Cuomo's
horrendous $6 billion budget gap" (2/4).
FOCUS
*4 NRCC: ROLLINS KEEPS GOING OUT WITH A BANG
Ed Rollins, Co-chair of the National Republican
Congressional Committee, who last week announced his imminent
departure for the Sawyer-Miller consulting firm, continued his
public advice to the party with remarks yesterday to the American
Association of Political Consultants (re-broadcast on C-SPAN
2/4). Facing in 1992 "the most important election for
Republicans in 40 years, II Rollins said the party was in serious
trouble -- with '90 voting turnout being the lowest among
Republicans since the Watergate year of 1974. The three GOP
national committees, he said, have sucked $1B in contributions to
Washington and "just like we complain about the Democrats" spent
it on Washington projects, leaving the local parties barren. His
answer: "I would level all three buildings and start from
scratch" -- replacing the politics of "annihilation" in one
election with the politics of "attrition" through a 2-4-6-8 year
plan that stresses local coalition building. But he said for the
party "to make the jump back to coalition politics, we have to
have a bigger disaster than we've had" -- probably in 1996 or
later. Saying that "Members of Congress don't have a clue what
goes on at the Committee," Rollins cited Rep. Newt Gingrich as
the only one who thinks 20 hours a day about how to win a
majority: "His 20 hours a day generally take 10 hours of my day,
but I wish there were 150 more like him." Predicting another
"budget fiasco the end of this year, he said he was reminded of
one Buffalo Republican who complained that "Nixon lied to us
about Watergate, Reagan lied to us about Iran-Contra, and now
Bush has lied to us about taxes."
1992 HOUSE RACES: New DCCC Executive Director Les Francis
told the AAPC meeting that there could be as many as 100
competitive House races in 1992 (3 or 4 times the normal number)
-- including 20 in California alone. Rollins agreed on the 100
number, and said that (unlike last year) the Republicans should
recruit "outsiders" who could say they had nothing to do with
what happened in Washington or Sacramento -- unlike the local
office-holder types they have sought in the past. "We should
want people who are hungry -- and we should promise them nothing
but a year of hell." He said winning required a kind of
"kamikaze" mentality -- and repeatedly cited Rep. Ron Santorum
(R-PA-18) who knocked on 18,000 doors in his surprise '90 upset
of Dem Rep. Doug Walgren (C-SPAN, 2/4).
REDISTRICTING
*5 STATE REPORT
FL (+4) : Rep. Earl Hutto (D-01), who beat GOPer Terry
Ketchel by "a relatively thin" 4.4% in '90, is a Dem "weak point"
for '92 (Dave Bruns, TALLAHASSEE DEMOCRAT). Hutto's CD "has too
many people.
Tens of thousands of voters will have to be
lopped off.
to make sure Hutto's Bay County home remains in
the district, map-drawers might have to trim off some of the
heavily Democratic rural areas near the Alabama border
Worse, Hutto lost Okaloosa County in 1990 by 5,000 votes. In a
1992 district, Okaloosa would play a bigger role -- bad news for
Earl" (2/3). Ketchel is expected to run against Hutto again.
MO (0) New-Rep. Joan Kelly Horn (D-02) "is trying to halt
recent speculation that she might run for the U.S. Senate next
year if the boundary lines of her 2nd District are not to her
liking after redistricting" (Mark Schlinkmann, ST. LOUIS POST-
DISPATCH). Horn spokesperson Judi Roman "says Horn has no
intention" of challenging Sen. Kit Bond (R) in '92 "and will run
for re-election no matter what the lines turn out to be" (2/3).
For more on Horn, see interview with Schlinkmann below.
MT (-1) : With the state losing one of its two CDs, Rep. Pat
Williams (D-01) would start out "as the early favorite" against
Rep. Ron Marlenee (R-02) for the new at-large CD, as Williams'
current CD is the more populous. A GREAT FALLS TRIBUNE poll from
12/90 showed Williams beating Marlenee 51-37%. The match-up,
however, may not occur as Williams is also said to be considering
a run for Gov. in '92 (POLITICAL REPORT, 2/1 issue).
NY (-3) : "All along the theory has been that the three-
district reduction would be accomplished by eliminating the seat
of a Democrat -- Scheuer [D-08-Queens] -- and the seat of a
Republican in western [NY]. The third seat
would be
eliminated in a so-called 'fair fight' matching
incumbents
from each party somewhere in the Hudson Valley. But the
new
census numbers could push that 'fair fight' into Manhattan, and
set up a showdown" between Reps. Bill Green (R-15) and Ted Weiss
(D-17) (Maurice Carroll, NEWSDAY, 1/29).
TX (+3) : "Census figures suggest" that if the Houston area
were to get one of the new CDs, "it will be a mostly Anglo area
in the north-northwest suburbs -- one likely to elect a
Republican. Potential GOP candidates include state Sen. Don
Henderson and state District Judge Ted Pole (HOU. CHRON., 2/3).
VA (+1) The VA NAACP is heading up a drive to create a
black-majority CD in the Hampton Roads area and the group
"believes it has a friend in the Executive Mansion" even though
Gov. Doug Wilder (D) has emphasized his opposition to the concept
(Michael Hardy, RICHMOND POST-DISPATCH). Wilder spokesperson
Laura Dillard "insisted" Wilder has neither met with the VA NAACP
about redistricting nor changed his public position against such
a CD. UVA's Larry Sabato explained that Wilder can't lose among
fellow Dems by being against a minority CD: "Doug figures the
odds are that there will be a black [CD] and that the courts or
the Department of Justice will "create" it for him." The VA Leg.
will redraw CDs "in mid-November" (2/3).
*6 NOT IN MY HOUSE: GEPHARDT AND MICHEL SURVIVE REDISTRICTING
Kathleen Best and Fred Lindecke, reporters for the ST. LOUIS
POST-DISPATCH, cover the districts of House Majority Leader
Richard Gephardt (MO 03) and Minority Leader Bob Michel (IL 18).
NOTE: Until recently, Michel was considered likely to retire
after this term.
HOTLINE: What's likely to happen in the redistricting of
Democrats Dick Gephardt (03), Bill Clay (01) and Joan Horn (02) ?
LINDECKE: Horn is the odd lady out. She's got the Majority
Leader of the House and a potential presidential candidate on one
side of her, and you've got the dean of the Missouri delegation,
who's black and who's the only committee chairman we have in the
state delegation on the other side of her. As a freshman who got
on by 54 votes, she doesn't have the stick to tell those guys to
move on.
She made one visit to [state legislators in]
Jefferson city, and that set off a round of stories about how she
wanted to get a piece of the western part of the city of St.
Louis to gain some Democratic votes.
From the scuttlebutt I
hear, the Democrats in the Missouri legislature are taking their
lead from Gephardt and Clay. All of black legislators from St.
Louis have to take their leadership from Clay. Four years ago,
Gephardt had enough influence in the Missouri legislature that
they created a Missouri presidential primary just to try to give
him an advantage on Super Tuesday. That's the kind of influence
that Gephardt has in the legislature.
HOTLINE: Aren't Gephardt and Clay safe enough to give Horn
a transfusion of Democrats?
LINDECKE: Both of them are down, so they have to gain
population -- mainly Clay. If either one goes the wrong
direction, he picks up Republican votes. So the only thing that
can happen is that they take what Democratic votes are in Horn's
district and leave the district more Republican.
Are their
margins big enough that they can afford to give some away? That
attitude on the part of either one of them has not surfaced yet.
HOTLINE: Gephardt's re-election margin was down to 57% last
year. How safe is his district the way it's drawn right now?
LINDECKE: His margin was down, but he was never in any
trouble against his Republican opponent, who didn't have any
money.
In Washington, he's regarded as liberal enough to get
elected majority leader, and he took liberal stances in order to
run for president. But some of the things he's been doing
nationally can hurt him in the district. He's got three
jurisdictions: the southern part of St. Louis, the southern part
of St. Louis County, and Jefferson County, which is the suburban
county immediately south of the St. Louis area. And a Jefferson
County Democrat is the same thing as a Republican.
He
is
able, because of his leadership positions and his presidential
aspirations, to take more liberal positions in the Washington
environment than he does when he comes back here. But if you
fool with his district too much and give him Republican areas in
southwestern St. Louis County, the area next door
Too much of
that, and he'll get some young, handsome Republican [opponent]
who can attract major financing and big Party backing, say
$500,000. [Then] Gephardt could be scrambling.
HOTLINE: Will Rep. Bob Michel (R-18) survive redistricting?
BEST: When I was writing about redistricting back in
September, one of the points of the story was that Michel was in
trouble.
The most likely scenario before Madigan left was
that Lane Evans and Michel would end up in the same district and
would have to run against each other. I don't think it would
have been a walkaway for either one of them.
There are nine downstate districts; six are Democrat, three
are Republican. The current thinking is that Illinois will lose
one downstate district, because downstate has lost population,
and one in the city, because the city has lost population. If
the Democrats draw the map, the target downstate would be to
combine the three Republican districts into two. Had they done
that, Michel's district would have been the most vulnerable,
because it's got some major Democratic population centers.
Michel got a huge favor from Bush when Bush nominated Ed
Madigan as Ag Secretary. It pretty much assured that Michel gets
to keep his district in one form or another. With Madigan gone,
Michel and Dennis Hastert will probably end up dividing some of
his territory.
Michel may lose some territory to the South,
but there's too much Republican territory for him to lose a
district that he could win in easily.
HOTLINE: How close have Michel's re-election margins been?
BEST: His closest race was in 1982 under the new map. The
margin was below 55%. Since then, he has not had any problems.
HOTLINE: Is there evidence that Madigan's appointment, or
his pursuit of the appointment, had to do with redistricting?
BEST: I wrote a couple of stories about it, and people
would say, "We don't have any proof of this, but it sure helps
Michel out. I couldn't get anybody to tell me that Michel had
gone to the White House and lobbied for it, but it so clearly
made things easier for the Republicans in Illinois that I'm sure
that it had to be a factor. It took care of a problem.
*7 PHIL BURTON STILL DRAWING LINES
This one from the NRCC's Ed Rollins on the CA redistricting
czar of days gone by: "I respect the memory of Phil Burton, but
I hope the son-of-a-bitch is buried in a grave an inch deep
spread over every one of the 45 districts" he created. (C-SPAN
2/4)
BOOK COMING: John Jacobs is on leave from the SAN FRANCISCO
EXAMINER for most of the year writing a bio of late Rep. Phil
Burton. Anecdotes, experiences, correspondence -- wants to hear
from you. Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley, Moses
Hall, Berkeley CA 94720 or (415) 642-1474.
HOTSPOTS
*8 ARIZONA: STING
State Rep. Don Kenney (R) "and 20 other lawmakers, lobbyists
and others are under investigation" in what is being called "a
political-corruption 'sting. Kenney "was removed Monday as
chairman of the Judiciary Committee
House Speaker Jane Hull
[R] said Kenney asked to be replaced.
The operation, which
began in early 1990, featured an undercover agent who called
himself 'J. Anthony Vincent.' 'Vincent' posed as a shady gaming
consultant, flashed tens of thousands of dollars in cash, and
said he was interested in getting casino gambling legalized in
[AZ]. Ex-Gov. Sam Goddard (D) "said he met with 'Vincent' in
September 'and I knew immediately that this guy was bad news. He
could gave had it written on his forehead.' Goddard said
'Vincent' was brought to his office by George Stragalas, a former
[Dem] candidate for state treasurer, to talk about legalized
gambling. Goddard: "The minute he walked in with Stragalas I
knew something was wrong. This guy just looked too bad. I told
him he was in the wrong state talking to the wrong guy
I
mean, everything was wrong about the man.
I told every [Dem]
I knew out at the legislature to stay away from the damn guy and
they wouldn't listen to me." Stragalas last week said "that
'Vincent' had been active in his campaign." Goddard said,
"Phoenix police also served a search warrant on [Dem]
headquarters this weekend. 'What they wanted was a list of
donors to the party. Vincent also "made overtures to the
Republican Party, appearing at one function where he made a cash
donation to gubernatorial candidate Fife Symington's campaign."
Symington manager Bunny Badertscher "said that as early as
September rumors were circulating about the suspicious-looking
man who looked like something out of central casting for a Mafia
movie. When Symington's people heard the rumors, they returned
'Vincent's' donation." Vincent "also tried to gain the
confidence of Rep. Jack Jewett of Tucson, and of Tony West, who
was in the middle of a successful campaign for state treasurer.
Both suspected 'Vincent' of being dishonest and reported their
suspicions to then-[AG] Robert Corbin. The Department of Public
Safety conducted a brief investigation to learn who 'Vincent'
was, but could not find out. Phoenix police did not let DPS know
there was a 'sting' operation" (Collier/Yozwiak, ARIZONA
REPUBLIC, 2/5).
*9 FLORIDA: CHILES UNDER FIRE FOR SEXIST REMARKS
Gov. Lawton Chiles's (D) remark that women are the "weaker
sex" (see HOTLINE 2/1 #9) has drawn differing criticisms: "Oh,
we know you're 60 years old and a Southern gentleman.
women
today don't like being patronized.
it reveals a sexist
mindset inappropriate for a governor in 1991
[W]hat worries
women is that your spoken level is likely the level you'll act
from.
I doubt you're genuinely sexist.
you have appointed
several women as agency heads
you just need some
consciousness raising" (Fran Hathaway, PALM BEACH POST, 2/3).
ST. PETERSBURG TIMES editorial: "Chiles deserves all the
hastising he's getting
It was a colossally dumb and sexist
thing to say. But now, punishment having been meted it is
time to appreciate a phenomenon greater than the governor's foot-
in-mouth problem. Chiles, unlike Martinez, knows how important
it is for health clinics to be where the students are. Chiles
recognizes that a faltering economy has more parents unable to
afford doctors for their children
Perhaps most telling,
Chiles
is willing to communicate in an effective way to the
students about sex" (2/4). "One night, as I lay in a feverish
state, a series of visions came upon me. First I dreamed that my
hero had decreed that every single one of his lieutenants would
make
$98,000 a year. 'Lies' I shouted to myself.
on the
heels of the first vision came a second:
Chiles, who had
campaigned against 'politics as usual',' had begun keeping a
'report card' on state department heads to make sure they were
giving jobs to his campaign supporters. Quickly
came a third
vision: Chiles announced that the percentage of lottery money
that goes to education will stay the same, although as a
candidate he had called the lottery a 'hoax'. I could bear no
more. And yet, I forced myself to watch
as
Chiles
described women as 'the weaker sex'.
Enough! I sat bolt upright
drenched in the sweat of terror.
Somehow, I fell back
into
sleep. Suddenly Chiles was
in my bedchamber. He
was advancing upon me
He laughed
:
an evil, mournful laugh
and reached for something at his neck and pulled away -- a
mask!
Oh, would that I had died ere seeing that awful truth.
Beneath that waxen mask was none other than -- Bob Martinez"
(Howard Troxler, TAMPA TRIBUNE, 2/4).
*10 MARYLAND: SCHAEFER IN DEEP S--- OVER REMARK
MD GOP Chair Joyce Lyons Terhes joined by all nine GOP
chairs from the Eastern Shore counties in demanding that Gov.
William Donald Schaefer (D) "apologize to the people of the
Eastern Shore for 'a crude and offensive reference to the shore
and its people. Schaefer reportedly told a group of
legislators at the Saturday swearing-in of the MD Treasurer,
"How's the s---House of the Eastern Shore?" (see HOTLINE 2/4 #9).
Schaefer lost seven of the nine shore counties in 11/90. Terhes:
"Is the Eastern Shore going to get a fair shake for the next four
years? I wouldn't bet Schaefer's salary increase on that" (MD
GOP release, 2/4).
*11 MASSACHUSETTS: CONTE RECOVERS FROM BLOOD CLOT
Rep. Silvio Conte (R-01) is "recovering" at NIH, "where he
had a blood clot removed from the right side of his brain" 2/1.
NIH "would not list his condition." Conte, 69, awakened 2/1 with
"flulike symptoms and the began to experience a loss of feeling
in his left hand. He was rushed to NIH for immediate surgery.
His recuperation is expected to last through the February
Presidents Day congressional recess" (Conconi, W. POST, 2/5).
*12 NEW HAMPSHIRE: RUDMAN IN '92? STILL UNDECIDED
Sen. Warren Rudman (R) "said despite rumors to the contrary,
he remains genuinely undecided" about whether he will seek a 3rd
term in 1992 (Kevin Landrigan, NASHUA TELEGRAPH). Rudman: "I
truly have not made up my mind whether I want to serve another
six-year term.
I realize this is a decision I will have to
make before the end of the year and I will." Many political
observers believe Rudman would run again, "noting his appearances
back in the state -- both campaign-related and non-political --
were stepped up" in '90. Gov. Judd Gregg (R) said "he would
likely seek a 3rd, two-year term as [Gov] next year in part
because he figured Rudman would run again in 1992. Many
prominent Dems said they would consider running in '92 "only if
Rudman stepped down." Political "antennae" went up when it was
announced earlier last week that Rudman had accepted a seat on
the Senate Intelligence Committee, an appointment which requires
an eight-year term limit. Rudman: "I accepted that appointment
because it is indeed an honor to serve on the Senate Intelligence
Committee, period.' In '85, Rudman "likewise did not come to his
decision to run again easily" (2/4).
*13 TEXAS: HIGHTOWER TO HEAD ALLIANCE OPPOSING S&L BAILOUT
Ex-Agriculture Commissioner Jim Hightower (D) has been named
chair of a "national populist alliance" opposing the federal
government's bailout of S&Ls. The Financial Democracy Campaign
(FDC) will be "organizing against a massive deregulation of
banks" toward which the Bush administration seems headed, FDC
spokeswoman Denise Mitchell said. Hightower called for a "surtax
of limited duration -- until the cleanup is completed -- on those
who profited in the 1980s and who can afford to pay -- the
wealthiest 1 or 2 percent of Americans." FDC co-chairs include
Jesse Jackson, Ralph Nader, ex-WI Sen. candidate Ed Garvey (D)
and ex-NM Gov. Toney Anaya (D) (AUSTIN AMERICAN-STATESMAN, 2/4).
SAN ANTONIO TERM LIMITS? A citizens' group has collected
enough voter signatures to force a 5/4 referendum on whether to
limit city council members to two terms. The ballot proposal,
which must first pass muster with the Justice Department, would
bar any council member who had received two, two-year terms from
seeking re-election in 1993. At least two city council members
have said they would fight to keep the issue off the ballot.
Council member Joe Webb calls the petition "a back door effort"
to oust certain council members (AUSTIN AMERICAN-STATESMAN, 2/4).
*14 WASHINGTON: SENATE LEADER MAY CHALLENGE GARDNER IN '92
A GOP property tax relief bill "appeared close to death" in
the Dem-controlled House. The bill is caught in bipartisan
gridlock with the GOP-controlled Senate wanting to tax the middle
class and the Dem-controlled House wanting to protect the middle
class and themselves by quickly offering an alternative. With a
recently disputed tax relief bill, Sen. Ways and Means chair Dan
McDonald (R), "a potential" '92 gov. candidate, "knows that he
has put" House Speaker Joe King, "a prospective [Dem] candidate
for governor or some other higher post, in a difficult position."
Gov. Booth Gardner (D) "likely" to seek a third term, has found
no clear path to follow on the issue" (SEATTLE POST-
INTELLIGENCER, 2/5).
CALIFORNIA CABLE
*15 SENATE. WATCH: BROWN RETIRES AS DEM CHAIR FOR RUN
Ex-Gov. Jerry Brown resigned yesterday as CA Dem chair "to
explore a likely bid for the U.S. Senate. In an interview, Brown
said he plans to run a 'grassroots campaign' for Senate, with
'lots of people involved -- as many as thousands of people as
possible'' (Susan Yoachum, S.F. CHRONICLE). In a letter to the
party, Brown wrote, "I am stepping down because my supporters are
establishing an exploratory Senate campaign committee for a
Senate bid in 1992. Since the demands of being party chair and a
potential candidacy are in conflict, I believe the only
appropriate course is to resign as chair." Brown will officially
step down at the 3/1-3 Dem state convention in Oakland (2/5).
BOXER REBELLION: The "most intriguing rumor of the week"
has Rep. Barbara Boxer (D-06) challenging ex-S.F. mayor Dianne
Feinstein for the Dem nomination to face appointed GOP Sen. John
Seymour. Insiders have labeled the scenario "the mother of all
political battles" (Jerry Roberts, CHRONICLE). The theory is
Boxer "would conclude that [CA] voters are unlikely to elect two
therefore challenge Feinstein instead of running in a crowded and
women from [S.F.] as their U.S. Senate representatives
male field" for the six-year Cranston seat. "Because primary
voters tend to be more liberal than [Dems] as a group, Boxer
might portray the centrist Feinstein as an arriviste Republican-
in-Democrat clothing while running on the left and emphasizing
her years of service to the party's environmental and feminist
causes. Boxer manager Ed McGovern, "acknowledging that 'it's not
out of the realm of possibility,' said Boxer 'will continue to
weigh the relative merits" of running for the two-year Seymour or
six-year Cranston seat (2/5).
FIRST '92 POLL: The L.A. TIMES poll, conducted 1/26-29,
surveyed 1,482 RVs, M/E +/- 4%.
Feinstein
36%
Someone else
Seymour
11%
25
No opinion
28
Seymour "is hardly a household word. Asked to name [CA's]
two U.S. senators, only 8% of the voters could cite Seymour."
But only 48% could name Cranston, a senator for 22 years. "When
voters were read Seymour's name and asked their general
impression of him, only 1 in 5 knew enough about the senator to
venture an opinion. of those who did, the result was 3 to 1
favorable." Feinstein's popularity "seems basically the same" as
10/90, during her run for gov., with a rating of 52% favorable to
36% unfavorable (Skelton, LAT, 2/4).
*16 DEM CHAIR: ANGELIDES, FINE SQUARE OFF TO REPLACE BROWN
Sacramento developer/Dem fund-raiser Phil Angelides and S.F.
atty./CA Dem controller Mitch Fine are vying to replace Brown.
"After winning the all-important blessing of
Brown, among other key players, Angelides looked like a sure bet
Speaker Willie
horse resolution, calling for a $7 million grass-roots
It also didn't hurt that Angelides sponsored a stalking
organization plan, and then hired a small army of political
consultants to help him get it passed by statewide [Dem] district
caucuses several weeks ago.
In launching his campaign, Fine
managed to re-ignite one of the longest-simmering debates among
[Dems] -- whether the party should work primarily to protect the
interests of state incumbents and other elected officials or
devote itself to building grass-roots organizations that address
more local concerns." Fine "is starting to hear from some
influential [Dems] who are pressuring him to clear the field and
let Angelides, a proven big bucks fund-raiser, finish Brown's
four-year term" (Roberts, CHRONICLE, 2/5).
*17 POLL: WILSON MORE POPULAR THAN HIS BUDGET PLAN
The L.A. TIMES surveyed 1,986 CA adults (including 1,482
registered voters) 1/26-29, margin of error 3% (RVs, 4%) (2/4).
NOW
10/90
FAV / UNFAV
FAV / UNFAV
Gov. Pete Wilson (R)
65% / 21%
54% / 34%
Speaker Willie Brown (D)
24% / 36%
WILSON'S JOB RATING: Approve 41% / Disapprove 12%
ALSO: Californians "highly regard" Wilson but "oppose his
plans to cut benefits for welfare mothers and deny cost-of-living
increases for schools. The public also objects to most of
Wilson's tax increase ideas, accepting only his proposals to
raise levies on liquor and extend the sales tax to candy and
snack foods. People obviously want it all -- no spending cuts or
major tax increases. They clearly will not be able to have that
One major task confronting Wilson is to persuade the public
that the state budget deficit is serious enough to warrant
spending cuts and tax increases." Respondents were asked to name
the "most important problem facing" CA today: Crime/drugs, water
shortage, education, and the budget deficit. In 9/90, 68% said
they would support a tax hike for a specific purpose, such as
education or crime fighting. Now "that figure has fallen to 56%,
with education, crime, environmental protection, health care and
the homeless drawing the most support for new tax dollars, in
that order. Welfare ranks at the bottom of the priority list"
(LAT, 2/4)
*18 S.F. MAYOR: AGNOS TEAM TOGETHER; JORDAN HAS EARLY $UCCESS
S.F. Mayor Art Agnos "has quietly reassembled most of the
key players responsible for his smashing 1987 win, including
chief strategist Richie Ross, field director Larry Tramutola and
fund-raiser Tom Isaak. S.F. consultant Mary Hughes has been
added and "will act as day-to-day campaign manager. " Agnos'
opponent is ex-S.F. police chief Frank Jordan. Jordan manager
Jack Davis "is still effusing over the unexpectedly enthusiastic
response to their campaign kick-off fund-raiser this week, which
brought in $85,000." Davis: "There's a great reservoir of anti-
Agnos sentiment in this town. Frank has an incredible potential
to tap into it" (Roberts, CHRONICLE, 2/5).
CAMPAIGNS '91
*19 ARIZONA GOV: SYMINGTON, ASSESSOR FOUGHT OVER PROPERTY VALUES
Developer Fife Symington (R) has "consistently protested the
values placed on his commercial properties for tax purposes"
(Mary Jo Pitzl, ARIZONA REPUBLIC). Symington claimed 11
properties owned by several Symington-run partnerships are valued
at $64.7 million for the '90 tax year, yet the Maricopa Co.
Assessor's Office says the properties are worth $120.1 million.
In the past, Symington has succeeded in getting his assessments
lowered, "records indicate a pattern of annual appeals on most of
his properties, with many protests dating to the first year a
building was put on the tax rolls." He said the successful
appeals in the past "[are] proof that the county assessor is not
always right." Maricopa Co. Assessor Ira Friedman said "that
property owners who successfully fight their assessment transfer
some tax burden onto the rest of county's taxpayers." Friedman:
"Someone is getting taken.
...
Either the lender has been dealt a
tough blow (because he's lent too much for a property) or the
taxpayers are." Yet, a spokesperson for the AZ Tax Research
Assn. "said one man's lowered property taxes do not necessarily
mean more taxes for everyone else." Ex-Phoenix Mayor Terry
Goddard (D) said the tax issue would raise some "conflict-of-
interest" questions if [Symington] were elected, particulary
since "the governor appoints members to the state Tax Board of
Appeals. Some of Symington's partnerships have protested their
taxes up to this board, usually with success.' Some Tax
appraisers believe "it is common practice to value property at a
low rate when protesting taxes but to give a higher figure when
seeking a loan,' while others say "it is wrong to vary a
property's value depending on its use" (2/4).
*20 LOUISIANA GOV. DUKE LATE ON THREE YEARS OF TAX PAYMENTS
State Rep. David Duke (R) has "failed to pay property taxes
on his Metairie home for three of the past five years, according
to Jefferson Parish sheriff's records. Through 1/31, "Duke owed
the parish $2,857.17 for property taxes in 1987, 1989, and 1990"
(Tyler Bridges, New Orleans TIMES-PICAYUNE) Tax specialist
Bubby Gauthreaux, said of Duke's failure to pay in '87, "in about
six months Duke's home could be seized and sold by the sheriff's
office." When contacted on 2/1, Duke said he paid his taxes, but
later admitted, "I'm going to pay my property taxes. I want to
pay every penny in taxes that I owe." Duke's home also serves
as "the office for the National Association for the Advancement
of White People, the white supremacist group he formed in 1980."
Duke has faced questions of tax matters in the past; as TIMES-
PICAYUNE reported last year that Duke did not file state income
taxes from '84-'87 (2/2).
ROEMER: Talk that Gov. Buddy Roemer (D) was being
approached by the GOP "erupted [2/1] with a group of GOP anti-
abortion activists saying it would fight any effort by Roemer to
seek re-election as a Republican" (Hill/Traylor, GANNET NEWS
SERVICE). Keith Hall, chair of the East Baton Rouge Parish GOP,
led a group of 20 people in a press conference, stating Roemer
"torpedoed anti-abortion legislation last year, increased state
spending and raised taxes." Hall: "If he joins the party as an
unrepentant liberal, he will find the 'liberal [GOP] caucus' to
be a very lonely place." Roemer "a conservative Democrat who is
not active in his own party, called rumors that he was switching
parties 'fantasy' but acknowledged that he has had conversations
with GOP representatives." Roemer: "I am very independent, and
that has sometimes caused me grief with the Democratic Party.
...
But as to whether or not I'm thinking about it; I'm not saying
I'm thinking about it, and I'm not saying I'm not" (Monroe NEWS-
STAR, 2/2).
JONES ANNOUNCES: Mayor Sam Jones (D) of Franklin announced
his candidacy for Gov. yesterday, 2/4. On 1/29, he stated, "The
real bottom line is that ideas I have are the ideas people of the
state want to hear about" (AP/Baton Rouge STATE-TIMES, 2/1).
POLL UPDATE
*21 PUBLIC SAYS NEGOTIATE WHILE WAR GOES ON (BUT GENDER GAP)
1009 Americans interviewed 1/30-2/3 by ICR Survey Research
Group ("sponsored by Operation Real Security and the Vietnam
Veterans of America, with private donor support"), margin of
error +/- 3%. (Release, National Security News Service, 9:30AM
2/5)
QUESTION: "As of now, do you think Saddam Hussein is fighting
like it's a fight to the finish, or do you think he would like to
get out of it if he could, without an all-out war?"
ALL
MEN WOM
WHT BLK
FIGHT TO THE FINISH
77%
73% 80%
77% 70%
WOULD LIKE OUT
16
20
12
15
23
QUESTION: "According to the press, one Pentagon estimate
predicted that 30,000 Americans will be killed if we start a
ground war. Were you aware that losses could be that high?"
ALL
MEN WOM
WHT BLK
YES, AWARE
67%
73% 61%
68% 62%
NO, NOT AWARE
31
25
36
30
36
QUESTION: "In World War II and the Vietnam War, there were
negotiations with the enemy while the fighting went on. Do you
think we should begin diplomatic steps now to try to end the war,
or do you think we should start a ground war without initiating
any diplomatic activity first?"
ALL
MEN WOM
WHT BLK
BEGIN DIPLOMATIC STEPS NOW
57%
49% 65%
56% 78%
GROUND WAR WITHOUT DIPLOMACY
36%
45 26
37 21
NOTE: This question was asked two different ways to a split
sample, reversing the order of the two options. The figures
above reflect the combined response. When "begin diplomatic
steps" was stated first the sample split 60%/37%; when "ground
war without diplomacy" was put first the split sample still
preferred "begin diplomatic steps" but by 55%/38%.
QUESTION: "Which of these three statements comes closest to your
opinion of what the United States should do next?"
ALL
MEN WOM
WHT BLK
"Start a ground war even if it cost
17%
23% 11%
17%
8%
thousands of American lives"
"Start a diplomatic effort to get
64
62
67
66
62
Iraq out of Kuwait while continuing
the bombing if necessary"
"Declare a temporary cease fire and 13
9 16
11
30
use economic sanctions and diplomacy
to finish the job"
TOTAL RESPONDENTS
1009
505 504
899
77
TV MONITOR
*22 THIS MORNING: FOX's "Morning News" interviewed ex-NSC
member Robert Hunter, MN GOV. Arne Carlson (R) and House Budget
Comm. chair Leon Panetta (D-CA). ABC's "Good Morning America"
interviewed AK Gov. Walter Hickel (I), ex-NJ Gov. Tom Kean and
NEA Pres. Keith Geiger. Sen. Jim Sasser (D-TN): "I thought we
gave capital gains a decent burial last year and let it rest in
peace" (NBC).
LAST NIGHT'S LINEUP: CNN's "Crossfire" hosted counter-
terrorism consultant Paul Joyal, American Arab Anti-
Discrimination Comm. Pres. Albert Mokhiber. PBS'
"MacNeil/Lehrer" interviewed Gen. Norman Schwarzkopf and OMB
director Richard Darman, Gov. James Florio (D-NJ), Gov. John
Ashcroft (R-MO) on federal money to the states.
BUDGET REAX: ABC's Peter Jennings: "Not much new money,
just new ways to spend it" (ABC). CNN's Pam Olson: "Democrats
at least didn't declare the $1.4 trillion budget dead on arrival
as in previous years" (CNN). NBC's John Cochran: "The
President's budget again calls for no new taxes. But this time,
the president's men say, he means it" (NBC). OMB Dir. Darman on
charges the administration economic scenario is overly rosy:
"Our economic forecast is right in the dead center of most
private economist's forecasts. It is not at all rosy
Some
people are saying that ours is a bit pessimistic" ("M/L," PBS).
House Maj. Leader Richard Gephardt (D-MO) : "In one stroke, the
President, in this budget, creates the largest deficit in
history, it gives the wealthiest people in the country a huge tax
cut, it makes huge cuts in the Medicare program" (NBC). Sen.
Pete Domenici (R-NM) on last year's budget deal: "I do not think
it will come apart It is not easy to tear it apart" (CNN).
Sen. Sasser: "with war and recession staring us in the face, I
would have to characterize this budget as a cross your fingers,
close your eyes and hope for the best budget" (CNN). CBS' Bob
Schieffer: "In truth, dreams seem to make up a large portion of
the budgets that presidents have been sending to Congress lately,
so while this one admits record deficits this year and next, the
administration is already forecasting what Ronald Reagan once
promised, balanced budgets -- after the next election" (CBS).
DOMESTIC AGENDA: Rep. Leon Panetta (D-CA) "This is 10
years of the same indifference to domestic problems, the same
misplaced priorities, the same concern for the interests of the
well to do over the middle class and the working people of this
country" (CNN). ABC's Rebecca Chase: "Most of these new
initiatives for families and children are coming at the expense
of existing programs for the poor.' HUD Sec. Jack Kemp: "HUD's
resources can best serve low-income Americans by increasing the
opportunity for home ownership and choice as opposed to building
more government-owned government managed public housing
projects." ABC's Chase: "For families and children then
domestic spending remains relatively the same and despite claims
of reforming the budget to be more fair to the poor programs that
help low-income families are headed for some of the biggest cuts"
(ABC). ABC's George Strait: "Congress is expected to resist the
Medicare cuts directly affecting the elderly but it might agree
to cuts affecting physicians. Many Members say the senior lobby
has much more clout than the doctor lobby.
$$$ TO THE STATES: CBS' Randall Pinkston: "President
Bush's budget may be getting mixed reviews on Capitol Hill, but
at least one proposal is a hit with the nation's governors. Mr.
Bush told them today, he wants to give them federal money,
without federal red tape. NJ Gov. Florio: "It's like trying to
get 10 pounds of potatoes into a five pound bag." Pinkston:
"Still even for skeptics like Florio, it comes down to this -
- if there are federal dollars in the pipeline governors would
rather decide themselves where the dollars go, not Washington"
(CBS). Gov. Pete Wilson (R-CA) "We are now facing, in most of
the states, a gap between revenues and expenditures that is
unprecedented" (NBC).
DEFENSE $$$: ABC's Bob Zelnick: "The Pentagon used the
success of its high-technology weapons in the Gulf, like the
Patriot missile, to request a major increase in funding for SDI
to defend against ballistic missiles." Defense Sec. Cheney: "If
anybody had any doubts about Stealth, they ought to look at the
performance of the F-117 fighter bomber that has played such a
crucial role in striking key targets in our operations against
Saddam Hussein's forces" (ABC).
IRAQ: NBC's Fred Francis: "For Saddam, hunkered down in a
bunker in Baghdad, any length of time in Saudi Arabia, any U.S.
combat deaths, no matter how severe his own losses, would be a
grand political victory." NBC's John Dancy: "However this turns
out, whether Saddam lives or dies, the United States cannot
expect a tidy peace, even if it wins a clear military victory.
And that's beginning to worry some people here " (NBC). Rep.
Robert Dornan (R-CA) on terrorist attacks: "Our problem is the
FBI is telling congressmen and Senators, behind the scenes, 'Be
on your guard it's coming and it's going to be rough.' Then they
go before the public and say, 'No problem, business as usual'"
("Crossfire, CNN). Fred Francis, quoting "Pentagon sources":
"Expect Saddam once again to use environmental terrorism, dumping
millions of barrels of oil into the Persian Gulf" (NBC).
TV SOUNDBITE
"The administration assumes our allies like Japan
and Germany will contribute their fair share. If you believe
these assumptions, I have a dream vacation in Baghdad
I'd like to sell you."
-- Rep. Bill Richardson (D-NM), mult., 2/4
---
Monday
---
March 11, 1991 ---
######
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--- THE DAILY BRIEFING ON AMERICAN POLITICS ---
Updated Each Morning At 11:30
(c) The American Political Network, Inc.
282 North Washington Street, Falls Church, VA (703) 237-5130
LA GOV: ROEMER SWITCHING
SPOTLIGHT
It's a "done deal." Roemer
meets with state GOP chair, and
RETREAT IN CHAOS
called "prime" candidate for
party's endorsement. (#20)
Dems' Radio Baghdad calls
them to Leesburg for "much
SENATE. WATCH
needed group therapy" (#11)
FL: Schwarzkopf "not going
but coordination is gone:
to slam the door." (#13)
GA: Message for Mr. Fowler.
Cuomo's idea for message
Bush sends Peace Corps Director
is reduced to: "victory
Coverdell to rally. (#14)
does not necessarily mean
SC: Hollings defends vote.
that the decision to go to
"In addition to waving yellow
war was the best one" (#6).
flags, I thought we ought to
Nunn (#3) is reduced to
wave our pocketbooks." (#18)
GOP's "poster child of the
MD: A clear and present
'appeasement Democrats."
danger for Mikulski? (#16)
On TV, Robb refuses to
DEMS '92: WHO WANTS IT?
say whether his ouster from
GEPHARDT: Sources say he's
Budget panel by Dems was
"pulled the plug. (#1)
"punishment for his [war]
SILBER: Has "no
...
vote"; he says it "reflects
intention" of running. (#4)
[Dems'] unhappiness with.
GORE: He's "thinking very
his insistence on fiscal
seriously" about a run. (#2)
restraint" (#2). Silber
rips "my party's national
POLL UPDATE
leadership" for opposing
TIME/CNN: BRING ON THE ECONOMY
Bush on war vote (#4).
44% see an improving economy,
with 15% expecting a turn for
And in LA, Dems suffer a
the worse. In 1/91, it was 43%
major defection. (#20)
to 19% -- the other way. (#24)
QUOTE OF THE DAY
"It's smart in the same way using Willie Horton was smart."
-- Balto. EVENING SUN's Jack Germond on GOP's use of the war as a
political issue, "McLaughlin Group," 3/9.
(c) 1991 by the American Political Network, Inc. Any
reproduction -- by photocopy, FAX, or other form -- in whole
or in part, is a violation of federal law and is strictly
prohibited without the consent of APN. All rights reserved.
HOTLINE/DATABASE INDEX
WHITE HOUSE '92
GEPHARDT: But is it worth giving up the Speakership? (#1)
GORE/ROBB: They stand alone. (#2)
NUNN: "Poster child of the 'appeasement Democrats. /11 (#3)
SILBER: Says he's not running but some see door still ajar. (#4)
TSONGAS: The Boston media has another candidate. (#5)
CUOMO: Defends sanctions stance, attacks GOP. (#6)
POWELL TO QUAYLE: Don't worry about me. (#7)
FROM THE TUBE: Weekend warriors on the '92 watch. (#8)
FOCUS
COVER TO COVER: What's on the front of the newsmags. (#9)
POST-IRAQ: New friends, old enemies. (#10)
WAR POLITICS: The Dem "retreat." (#11)
HOTSPOTS
AZ: That's Hattie Babbitt we're talkin' about. (#12)
FL: Don't run Norm; money before power, I say. (#13)
GA: White House sends in Coverdell against Fowler? (#14)
KS: Ex-GOP chair revives ties with Glickman. (#15)
MD: Sen. Tom Clancy?; Dyson: teacher or Rep.? (#16)
NY: Ex-Carter aide for D'Amato seat?; Dinkins re-run. (#17)
SC: Hollings defends anti-war vote. (#18)
CALIFORNIA CABLE
L.A. POLICE BEATING: Should Gates go? (#19)
CAMPAIGNS '91
LOUISIANA GOVERNOR: Roemer switching to GOP. (#20)
KENTUCKY GOVERNOR: Jones & Wilkinson in "death dance. " (#21)
TX-03: Bartlett resignation takes effect today. (#22)
PHILADELPHIA MAYOR: Goode's choice "failed to unite." (#23)
POLL UPDATE
TIME/CNN: "Dramatic reversal" in attitudes on the economy. (#24)
TV MONITOR (#25)
Doestic agenda
...
Baker in the Mideast
...
Goat of the Week.
? ? ? ? OVERLOOKED ? ???
Buddy Roemer joins other big-time LA party-switchers, including:
Sec/State Fox McKeithen, and state Sen. Ben Bagert, who won the
GOP Senate endorsement in '90 and may run for AG this year. And
don't forget former long-time Dem stalwart -- David Duke.
WHITE HOUSE '92
*1 GEPHARDT: BUT IS IT WORTH GIVING UP THE SPEAKERSHIP?
His "itch to be president is subdued for now by the risks of
running. But it could be months before he decides for sure what
he'll do in 1992" (Bill Lambrecht, ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH). "A
flurry of meetings late last year and early in January left some
of Gephardt's allies convinced that he was ready to run again
...
All that died down when the war began. Planning had moved too
swiftly for Gephardt's liking, sources say, so he 'pulled the
plug. Gephardt adviser Dick Moe: "I don't think that he was
inclined to run then, and I think that he is disinclined now."
But said a "close ally": "He sees some circumstances under which
he would run in 1992. He's a Boy Scout, and he wants to be
prepared.' Gephardt said he wasn't running now "but he declined
to rule out a candidacy": "I don't rule anything in or anything
out and I'm not sitting here today saying I'll never run for
president in the future. But my plan is to do this job, and
that's what I'm doing." In his '89 race for majority leader,
Gephardt vowed to remain in the post through the '92 campaign,
yet "some who know [him] well think that if he were to become a
candidate, he would resign his leadership job and aim single-
mindedly at the presidency." Speaker Foley suggested Gephardt
could keep his post while running, but "barring something
resembling a draft from House members, anything short of a clean
break from majority leader could invite the sort of flip-flop
charges that helped derail his presidential candidacy four years
ago." Also, Gephardt's likely ascension to speaker would be
scuttled if he became the nominee as MO law does not allow a
candidate to run for two offices at once. A Gephardt strategy
requires he again win the IA caucuses, but he "probably would
have to win overwhelmingly" there "or forget about" NH, where he
finished 2nd to Dukakis in '88. Gephardt ran out of money last
time, ensuring defeat on Super Tuesday. He plans to raise
$300,000 to $400,000 at a DC $-raiser 3/20 (3/10). U.S. NEWS'
David Gergen said Gephardt "told me this week he thinks he'll
wait until the fall now before sorting that question out"
("MacNeil/Lehrer," PBS, 3/8).
*2 GORE/ROBB: THEY STAND ALONE
GORE: Michael Kinsley writes on the only two war supporters
on the "list of likelies:" Robb and Gore. "I won't reveal a
preference, except to say that Robb strikes me as having no
original thoughts or genuine principles.
[Gore] has the
advantage of being named Al, like so many other players in the
Bush-created New World Order: Al Sabah, Al Anbari, and so on"
(NEW REPUBLIC, 3/25 issue). A Gore spokeswoman said "he is
'thinking very serioiusly' about a race" (Toner, N.Y. TIMES,
3/11). Fred Barnes: "The performance by Al Gore was
breathtaking in it's intellectual dishonesty. If this war had
gone poorly, Democrats would have been all over Bush like a cheap
suit. And its perfectly legitimate for Republicans to use this
issue." ("McLaughlin," NBC, 3/10).
ROBB: "I have acknowledged that in presidential politics I
think the [Dem] nominee who happened to take a position against
the authorization of force is going to carry a heavier burden.
that doesn't mean they're going to be disqualified, but I think
there is a threshold qualification test for presidential
nominees" (NBC, 3/10). Robb was removed from the Senate Budget
Committee "by senior members in his own party, an unusual gesture
that Robb says reflects unhappiness with his insistence on fiscal
restraint" (Jenkins/Broder, W. POST, 3/11). On NBC's "Meet the
Press, Robb was asked whether his removal was "punishment for
his [war] vote,' he responded, "I don't really want to get into
that; there's more there than meets the eye." When pressed later
by Garrick Utley, Robb said, "If I were to suggest any particular
role, I would suggest that it had to do with my unwillingness to
report out a meaningless budget resolution" (3/10).
*3 NUNN: "POSTER CHILD OF THE 'APPEASEMENT DEMOCRATS'"
In the wake of his statement that he "cannot visualize any
circumstances" for a pres. run, NEWSWEEK's Eleanor Clift rips
him: On use of force, "many Democrats voted with him, believing
he'd provide political cover. But his camouflage turned out to
be mosquito netting." Bush "never forgave" Nunn for leading the
opposition to John Tower as Defense Sec. "Bush pointedly did not
consult Nunn during the months of planning that preceded Desert
Storm, and he gave Nunn only an hour's notice last November on
the decision to double U.S. troop strength in the gulf." Nunn
"retaliated by holding public hearings that featured a parade of
military witnesses opposing the early use of force
...
Had the
war gone badly, Nunn might still be a hero. Instead, his two
decades as Mr. Defense are no protection against GOP efforts to
make him the poster child of the 'appeasement Democrats.'
At
Bush's speech last week, Nunn could be spotted in the audience,
wanly waving an American flag.
the luster he enjoyed as the
opposition's commander in chief is gone" (3/18 issue).
*4 SILBER: SAYS HE'S NOT RUNNING BUT SOME SEE DOOR STILL AJAR
He responded to a Friday's shocker: "Recent speculation in
the press that I am planning to run for president is flattering
but unfounded. I have no such intention." Although the BOSTON
GLOBE (3/9) finds the statement decisive, the BOSTON HERALD notes
Silber still "sketched a major role for himself on the national
stage in a statement which, analysts said, still left the door
ajar for a White House campaign.
the carefully worded
statement was viewed
as an attempt to cool immediate
speculation on Silber's ambitions -- while leaving him
manuevering room for a less-public exploration of a White House
run." In the statement, Silber said he was "very much concerned"
about the Dem Party and that he would continue to speak out on
issues: "I am saddened that so small a proportion of my party's
national leadership supported authorizing the president to use
force against Saddam Hussein." He went on to list a slew of
problems on the domestic front. GOP analyst Todd Domke:
"Silber's saying he has 'no intention' to run reminds me that Ted
Kennedy said the same thing in 1980 just before he ran against
Jimmy Carter.
[But] I don't think Silber wanted to be linked
in national presidential speculation with [ex-Sen. Paul] Tsongas,
in some kind of quixotic Massachusetts Siamese twins disaster"
(Woodlief/Wells/Fehrnstrom, 3/9). Speculation of a Silber bid
revolves around two 3/14 debt retirement $-raisers in Boston.
His 1,000/head invitation states that he wants to keep Citizens
for Silber going "to allow me to continue to speak out on public
issues that you and I care about, and to keep our options open."
Silber has suggested A '94 gov. run. GLOBE's Robert Jordan
writes if Paul Tsongas had entered the '90 gov. race first, "it
is unlikely that Silber would have also been a
candidate."
Tsongas "may also have a negative impact on Silber's fund-raising
abilities.
a few key workers from Silber's campaign
reportedly have made inquiries about working" for Tsongas (3/10).
*5 TSONGAS: THE BOSTON MEDIA HAS ANOTHER CANDIDATE
Under headline, "Don't write off Paul Tsongas too early,"
BOSTON GLOBE's Robert Jordan writes, "If the media
focus on
Tsongas' ethnic and geographic similarities to Dukakis, he can
say to them that this is merely a confirmation of the media's own
view that politics has become so shallow in recent years" (3/10).
GLOBE's David Nyhan on Tsongas' "pro-business liberal" ideas:
"The voters don't trust the [Dems] to run the economy, and
they're right, he begins. We spend all our time talking about
redistributing wealth, where to position the knife when we cut
the pie. We should be worrying about the pie shrinking the way
it is. This is heresy to some liberals.
There's more. He's
for the death penalty for drug dealers. And for nuclear power
plants. No Duke here.
He is almost eerie in his belief that
voters will actually listen to a grown-up argument" (3/10). GOP
consultant Todd Domke, "You know Jack Kerouac was from Lowell,
like Tsongas. You get the feeling Tsongas would hit the
(presidential) road for this personal, existential journey rather
than because he really thinks he can win" (BOSTON HERALD, 3/10).
*6 CUOMO: DEFENDS SANCTIONS STANCE, ATTACKS GOP
Cuomo "harshly criticized [GOP] leaders for political
attacks against Congressional [Dems] who voted against the war in
the Persian Gulf, and said that the allied victory does not
necessarily mean that the decision to go to war was the best one"
(Kevin Sack, N.Y. TIMES). Cuomo "has maintained that continued
economic pressure against Iraq might have accomplished President
Bush's initial goals" -- the Iraqi army out of Kuwait,
restoration of the Kuwaiti monarchy and release of U.S. hostages.
Cuomo: "Logically, you cannot say if the President had had his
way with that negotiation that it would have been less desirable
than all the taking of lives and all the environmental damage and
all the expense that followed. Can you say now that if the
President had gotten his way with those three conditions that
that would have been a failure, that that would have been
appeasement? I don't think so." Cuomo "stressed that he was not
saying that war was the wrong decision, only that it was
impossible to know if it was the best decision." Cuomo called
post-war GOP attacks of pro-sanctions Dems "cheap" and "foolish":
"It's a shame that that magnificent debate should be desecrated
now by tawdry politics that reveal conservative and radical
[GOPers] at their worst. What the conservatives have revealed is
that what they're best at is negativism. Their whole philosophy
is a sort of Willie Horton campaign technique." Cuomo added
GOPers "had erred by 'holding themselves as the party of war,
saying, "This country doesn't want somebody who burns candles to
the god Mars. We want somebody who can win a war that is forced
upon us and made inevitable and can win the peace just as
effectively" (3/11).
*7 POWELL TO QUAYLE: DON'T WORRY ABOUT ME
His friends say of the JCS Chair that "politics isn't his
thing." And he has told the vice-president he has no interest in
the job and is "deeply embarrassed" over the speculation of being
swapped for Quayle (NEWSWEEK, 3/18). But others keep trying to
toss Powell into the ring. Today's N.Y. DAILY NEWS (under
headline: "2d place, 2d rate?") says the question is "whether by
1996, Americans can think of Quayle as 'President Quayle'"
(Donald Rothberg, AP, 3/11). Cornell's Theodore Lowi says it's a
bum rap: "Part of the wimp factor for Bush came from his
behaving like a vice president should." But Dem pollster Peter
Hart: "Nobody ever thought George Bush was too stupid to be
President.' The article cites anonymous Republicans fearful that
he could "ride Air Force 2" to the GOP nomination in 1996 in an
election "Quayle can't win" (3/18). Meanwhile Ronald Brownstein
and Sam Fulwood III ask "Could Powell be Drafted as Democrat?" In
'96? "Like many accomplished military commanders --Eisenhower
throughout the 1940s, for example -- Powell has kept everyone
guessing" on his party inclinations. "If Powell hints even the
slightest interest, and Democrats are uncharacteristically alert,
it could set off the kind of bipartisan bidding war not seen
since 1948" when both parties went after Ike (L.A. TIMES, 3/10).
Powell's "non-political options" include: Another two year stint
as JCS Chair starting in September; after that a job in private
industry which a friend says would fit his desire to "run
something and make it work" (NEWSWEEK 3/18) ; earn $17-28K a pop
in public speaking (NEWSWEEK) i or even star as himself in HBO's
TV film about the Gulf War (even though US NEWS reports George
Bush's friends have made James Earl Jones their consensus choice
for the role -- with George Plimpton a possible for his boss,
3/18 issue).
IF BIG MO IS NEEDED: Missouri state Rep. Bob Quinn (D)
predicts that when Bush drops Quayle by talking him into running
for Governor of Indiana "for the good of the party," the second
slot on the GOP ticket will go to Gov. John Ashcroft (R-MO) now
completing his second and last term (ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH
3/10).
*8 FROM THE TUBE: WEEKEND WARRIORS ON THE '92 WATCH
CALL OFF THE ELECTION? Ex-Drug Czar Bill Bennett on '92
Dems: "I don't see a formidable slate coming out of there. Take
out the people who voted against the authorization for use of
force, the people who voted against the president" (McLaughlin
"One on One," 3/10). Eleanor Clift: "Some of the name-brand
Democrats are going to sit it out. But this a great opportunity
for some of the lesser-known people to come out and make their
reputation." Jack Germond: "The Democratic Party is not going
to take a pass on this, because there are ambitious candidates
like Gephardt and Gore, and several others who will prevent that"
("McLaughlin Group," 3/10). FOX's "Off the Record" looked at
what it would take for Bush to lose: ROLL CALL's Jim Glassman "I
think George Bush is vulnerable again on the Quayle issue,
especially if the Democrats don't have anything else
I
think
George Bush is missing a historic opportunity to put Colin Powell
in there and get some black voters back to the Republican Party.'
Barone: "Two words: economic collapse. Otherwise, he wins." WH
speechwriter Tony Snow: "Dumping Dan Quayle and taking on Saddam
Hussein." Beckel: "9% unemployment, a mainstream Democratic
campaign, a short, bloodless Democratic nomination, and an awful
lot of luck" (3/10).
CANDIDATES: Germond's prediction: "In my child-like belief
that there will still be a 1992 campaign
...
I think first of all
that Cuomo is going to run
If he does not, the liberals are
going to put a lot of pressure on George Mitchell." Fred Barnes
offered, "I think Tsongas makes a lot of sense. What the
Democrats need is another Greek-American liberal from
Massachusetts to head the ticket." ("McLaughlin," 3/10). Ex-DNC
chair Bob Strauss: "I have always felt that Lloyd Bentsen would
be a very attractive candidate, " and "Cuomo would be a very
tough, aggressive, progressive candidate." Bennett also said,
"Take out Jesse Jackson" because of Doug Wilder, and, "Cuomo's
very talented, very bright, he would engage the issues in a very
interesting way" ("One on One," 3/10). "Off the Record's" Bob
Beckel: "What's is happening this week is there are ad hoc
groups getting ready to go to Lloyd Bentsen and say, 'Lloyd
Bentsen, you've got to run, save the party.' Lloyd Bentsen's
answer is this, 'If I can't win, I ain't going to be a
sacrificial lamb.' And so what's now happening is my greatest
fear. This vacuum is being filled by the Gong Show" (FOX, 3/10).
MORE FROM THE GROUP: "McLaughlin Group" looked at the
likelihood of several Dem candidacies after the war vote.
GEPHARDT: Less likely. CUOMO: Question mark. WILDER: More
likely. GORE: More likely. BENTSEN: More likely KERREY:
More likely (3/10).
FOCUS
*9 COVER TO COVER: WHAT'S ON THE FRONT OF THE NEWSMAGS
BUSINESS WEEK -- Graphic: Men and women flying through the
sky with laptop computers on their laps. Headline: "Laptops
take off" (3/18).
NEWSWEEK -- Photo: Two Apache helicopters. Headline: "The
Secret History of the War" (3/18).
TIME -- Photo: U.S. woman holds flag, hugs returning
soldier. Headline: "Coming Home: The Lessons of Victory."
Subhead: "Inside Kuwait: Anger and Chaos" (3/18)
U.S. NEWS -- Photo: Colin Powell. Headline: "The U.S.
Military Reborn" (3/18).
NEW REPUBLIC -- Photo: Line of surrendering Iraqis with
arms raised. Headline: "The Rape and Rescue of Kuwait" (3/25).
*10 POST-IRAQ -- NEW FRIENDS, OLD ENEMIES
ASSAD COMMENTARY: "60 Minutes" profiled Syrian president
Hafez Assad, showing a 1/91 clip of Bush justifying U.S. gulf
action by saying he'd just read the Amnesty International report
on Saddam Hussein. CBS' Morley Safer: "Had the President read
on, he would have come to Amnesty's report on Assad -- it is
equally appalling -- a catalogue of torture and repression -- in
fact, the two dictators' methods are indistinguishable. But just
as the United States once made a pact with the devil Saddam, it
has now chosen, at the very least, to become friendly with
Assad." The report, "Another Saddam?" showed frequent clips of
Sec/State Baker and Bush meeting with Assad (CBS, 3/10).
OLD FRIENDS: In a front-page story, WASH. POST says the
that in the 15 days before the invasion, the Bush administration
approved licenses for $4.8M in advanced technology products to
Iraq. The sales were among "$1.5 billion in advanced U.S.
products that the Reagan and Bush administrations allowed Iraq to
buy from 1985 to 1990" (Stuart Auerbach, WASH. POST, 10/11).
OLD WORLD DISORDER: This week's TIME raises the possibility
of U.S. military intervention in a Soviet civil war. U.S.
intelligence officials "believe there is a 'very real'
possibility of widespread disorder
A complete breakdown, they
fear, could happen with stunning rapidity, perhaps in only 10 or
20 days" (George Church, 3/18 issue).
*11 WAR POLITICS: THE DEM "RETREAT"
House Dems met "at an aptly named retreat" in Leesburg, VA
this past weekend (Eaton, L.A. TIMES, 3/9) "to try to forge a
domestic policy that will rescue them from their current
political troubles" (Feeney, DALLAS MORNING NEWS). Bill Moyers,
who keynoted the retreat: "This euphoria will pass. " Rep.
Dennis Eckart (D-OH) : "Keep these things in perspective. Two
weeks is an eternity in politics" (Kenworthy, WASH. POST, 3/10).
On foreign policy, ex-Dukakis adviser Madeline Albright: "All
[int'l] problems can't be solved by bombing the bejesus out of
some small country" (LAT, 3/9).
WHAT TO DO IN '92: Balto. SUN's Theo Lippman calls for
George Bush's name and a slate of electors to be placed on the
Dem MD primary ballot. "[MD] law and [Dem] rules do not require
a presidential candidate to be a party member, merely to be
committed to the aims of the party.
Even if the field of
candidates were small, a Bush candidacy might do well. Suppose
the results were, say, Bentsen 33 percent, Gore 25 percent,
Wilder 20 percent, Bush 22 percent. What would the outcome do?
It would send the national [Dem] Party a distant early warning
signal that in 1992 it had better select a presidential candidate
and write a national platform in sharp contrast to the liberal
ones of the recent past" (3/10). Dem consultant Bob Shrum, on
the lack of candidates: "The country is not ready to move from a
campaign in the gulf to a campaign in Iowa" (Juan Williams, WASH.
POST, 3/10)
WHERE ARE THEY HEADED: Dem pollster Mark Mellman: "We've
developed a statistical model -- an economic model based on
disposable income -- and it indicates that '92 is going to be one
of the worst years for an incumbent to be judged on economic
performance in a presidential election." NEW REPUBLIC's Morton
Kondracke: "The biggest phobia at the White House is rich versus
poor, the issue [Dems] are flagging. It's not an issue that
threatens Bush's re-election. But Bush finds it unpleasant when
[Dems] denounce him as the champion of the wealthy.
The only
rich/poor issue Bush intends to broach is Kuwait and the rest of
the Arab world" (3/25 issue).
TV: Jack Germond: "What this means is that, when this kind
of issue arises again
everybody's going to vote politics."
Eleanor Clift: "It should be pointed out that some of the big
guns in the [GOP], namely [Gramm and Gingrich], sat out Vietnam
with student deferments and they were in the front of the line
when it came to coddling Saddam." Pat Buchanan: "They ought to
be held accountable for it, and they're going to be held
accountable for it. McLaughlin asked if it is politically smart
for the Republicans to exploit the gulf war issue and the vote.
Germond: "It's smart in the same way using Willie Horton was
smart. Clift: "I think it's stupid because I think the country
enjoys the feeling of unity that we had coming out of this war
and for the Republicans to act like a bunch of Shriners in the
Congressional hall made them look silly." McLaughlin: "If it's
done correctly, it's an okay issue because it's rooted in
national defense." DSCC Chair Sen. Chuck Robb (D-VA) and NRSC
Chair Sen. Phil Gramm (R-TX) were featured on CNN's "Evans &
Novak" 3/9 and met again 3/10 on NBC's Meet the Press. Robb
referred to the U.S. tilt towards Iraq over the last 10 years,
April Glaspie's message to the Iraqis before the invasion and
"the fact that the sanctions were opposed [by the administration]
right before the invasion took place." Robb: "I'm suggesting
that there is potential political vulnerability there, I'm
saying that some of us are more likely to look at the larger
picture;
in part to offset some of the kind of rhetoric that
we're going to get from Phil and the rest of the colleagues that
want to punish people for a particular vote" (NBC, 3/10).
HOTSPOTS
*12 ARIZONA: THAT'S HATTIE BABBITT WE'RE TALKIN' ABOUT
Hattie Babbitt, wife of ex-AZ Gov. Bruce Babbitt (D), "was a
real hit with her husband on the 1988 presidential campaign
trail," prompting "more than one wag" to comment "that it was too
bad the more photogenic and equally articulate Hattie wasn't the
candidate, rather than Bruce.' Since then, "a number of
politicos have urged" her to seek public office. H. Babbitt
said, "I've thought about it and I'm not interested." But "in
the next breath, she "left the door open to the possibility": "I
would only consider it in 1994 if [Sen. Dennis] DeConcini didn't
run" (ARIZONA REPUBLIC, 3/10).
HOUSE ETHICS PROBE COMMENCES TODAY: "In an effort to
determine if three indicted House members should be disciplined
or even booted out of the Arizona House, the House Ethics
Committee "kicks off its AZSCAM hearings" today. Five reps. were
indicted; two have already resigned. Some form of discipline "is
virtually assured" and "can be applied through a simple majority
vote" of 31 of the 60-member House. "Similar standards will be
used" next week when the Senate Ethics Committee "begins its
hearings" on two Dem st. sens. except, "in the Senate, it will be
even easier to expel members" (REPUBLIC, 3/11). Meanwhile, the
Maricopa Co. Attorney "is expected to announce the indictments"
today of 14 people "who Phoenix police say were involved in
illegal gambling during the initial stages of the 'Azscam'
political-corruption probe" (3/9).
MINETTE ELECTED DEM CHAIR: Tucson resident and ex-NBC TV
correspondent Bill Minette "withstood a last-minute challenge"
from State Rep. Sandra Kennedy in being elected AZ Dem Chair 3/9.
Minette replaces ex-Gov. Sam Goddard, "who has headed the state
party for 12 years" but "decided not to seek re-election to
another two-year term" (3/10).
IS LOSING THE CACTUS LEAGUE THE NEXT BLOW? 8 Major League
baseball teams conduct Spring training in AZ; next year the
Cleveland Indians leave for FL; more may follow. "Arizona, awash
in sleazy political scandals and a recession, may not have the
resources or the smarts to win this battle. In Florida, state
legislators have approved matching money for any cities who build
complexes to lure spring-training teams. In Arizona, state
legislators are either uninterested or under indictment" (Mark
Purdy, SAN JOSE MERCURY NEWS/MIAMI HERALD, 3/7).
*13 FLORIDA: DON'T RUN NORM; MONEY BEFORE POWER, I SAY
While in Orlando, televangelist Pat Robertson said Desert
Storm Commander Gen. Norman Schwarzkopf "shouldn't risk a run"
against Sen. Bob Graham (D) "Schwarzkopf could have the
presidency or chairmanship of any major corporation and make $1
million a year. I feel he would be foolish to give up a sure
thing to run for office. I don't think he would beat Sen.
Graham." Robertson reiterated that he won't run against Bush and
that Bush is "the strongest [president] in American history.
I don't know if George Washington was as strong" (ORLANDO
SENTINEL, 3/10). On NBC's "Today," Schwarzkopf: "I have never
considered any political aspirations [but] I'm not going to slam
the door ever [on politics]. You know, somebody once said 'never
say never' and that's probably pretty good advice, but at the
present time I'm certainly not thinking about anything in that
nature.
I just would be very happy if the history books said
that I was a soldier who served his country with honor" (3/11).
CHILES PUSHES REFORMS, BUT: Gov. Lawton Chiles (D) has
asked the Legislature to change how FL's electoral college votes
would be cast for president -- from unanimous for the state-wide
winner to one elector for each CD winner (the Maine system). FL
GOP Chair Van Poole says "no way" to the Chiles formula which in
1988 would have given Dukakis one elector (MIAMI HERALD, 3/10).
Meanwhile, a Ft. Lauderdale NEWS SUN-SENTINEL survey found 50
legislators in favor of Chiles' proposal to put a $500 limit on
campaign contributions, and only 15 against it. But on support
of Chiles' public financing recommendations, legislators were
split 30/31 (3/10).
*14 GEORGIA: WHITE HOUSE SENDS IN COVERDELL AGAINST FOWLER?
"Is the White House showing an early preference in the sure-
to-be hotly contested race" against Sen. Wyche Fowler (D) in '92?
"When asked for a presidential message to read at the big Desert
Storm celebration rally Saturday the White House sent Peace
Corps Director Paul Coverdell, a likely contender, down from
Washington to read it. " Also, Wyche's wife Donna Fowler "has
left her job as issues director at People for the American Way to
become senior editor" at the Assn. of Governing Boards of
Universities and Colleges. A spokesperson said "financial
cutbacks at [PFAW], not political considerations, led to the
move" (Tom Baxter, Atlanta CONSTITUTION, 3/11).
*15 KANSAS: EX-GOP CHAIR REVIVES TIES WITH GLICKMAN
During the "last few days, " ex-KS GOP Chair Dave Owen "has
re-established an old friendship" with Rep. Dan Glickman (D-04),
"who is considering a race" for Sen. Bob Dole's (R) seat in '92.
Glickman "said no agreements were reached" at the DC meeting.
Owen: "It was a discussion to get up to date and renew our
acquaintance, to re-establish the relationship." In '90, Owen
"re-established an old friendship" with now-Gov. Joan Finney (D)
and thus "helped [her] defeat" GOP Gov. Mike Hayden, "the man for
whom Owen raised money" in '86. K.C. STAR's Rich Hood asks, "Is
Owen now ready to work against Dole as he did against Hayden?"
Owen was "national fund-raising chief" for Dole's '88 pres. bid
until Dole "fired him after questions were raised" about Owen's
role in Hayden's '86 campaign; criminal charges were filed
against Owen and some associates in connection with fund-raising.
Owen has denied wrongdoing -- a district court threw out the
charges -- but the KS Supreme Ct. is expected to rule on an
appeal any day now. Owen "has made bitter pronouncements" about
Dole "since the 1988 blowup." On the same day he met with
Glickman, Owen also met with the WH political staff "and
discussed Bush's re-election campaign and other upcoming races,
including Dole's expected re-election bid" (3/10).
DOLE-DRUMS?: Uncertainty over whether Dole and Sens. Jake
Garn (R-UT) and Warren Rudman (R-NH) will seek reelection in '92
is "clouding the otherwise improving prospects for the party to
take back control of the Senate" next year. In the wake of the
Gulf war, GOPers "feel they have the potential to regain the
majority," but "that possibility could be undermined" by the
three, "who are giving varying degrees of consideration to
retiring.' Even though "since the beginning of the year, Dole
"has stepped up visits to [KS] and has held several fund-
raisers, colleagues "are nevertheless apprehensive, in part
because of occasional private comments from Dole indicating a
kind of weary frustration with his job. Although the GOP "would
be favored to retain" Garn's and Rudman's seats, it "could lose
{KS] to a strong Democratic challenger if Dole does not run, in
the view of some party strategists" (WASHINGTON POST, 3/10).
*16 MARYLAND: SEN. TOM CLANCY?; DYSON: TEACHER OR REP.?
WASH. TIMES reports "Best-selling war and espionage novelist
Tom Clancy ["Hunt for Red October"] is heating up speculation
that he's serious about running for a Senate seat next year by
making strategic speaking engagements" to GOP loyalists. Clancy
told Capitol News Service that "he hasn't made a decision on
challenging" Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D) "I just haven't had a
chance to think about it." Mikulski had a 52% approval rating in
a Mason-Dixon Research poll in 1/91. That margin makes GOPers
"believe a victory against the liberal one-termer is realistic."
Also, ex-Rep. Roy Dyson (D) "has. been offered a chance to teach a
political science course" at U of MD Eastern Shore. Dyson has
not said whether he will accept. "He has not ruled out running
again" to regain his 1st CD seat which he held for 10 years
before losing to Wayne Gilchrest (R) in November (3/11).
*17 NEW YORK: EX-CARTER AIDE FOR D'AMATO SEAT?; DINKINS RE-RUN
Now that state AG Robert Abrams (D) "said he'll run" for
Sen. '92, Sen. Al D'Amato's (R) "next challenger may be" Leon
Charney, "the lawyer who helped set up Jimmy Carter's Camp David
powwow with Anwar Sadat and Menachem Begin." Charney said "he's
still thinking it over" (N.Y. POST, 3/11). Mayor David Dinkins
(D) said 3/8 "that he planned to seek reelection so he could be
in City Hall for 'the better days. Dinkins, referring to the
city's budget crisis: "I know there are better days coming, and
I intend to be mayor when the better days are here." Ex-Mayor Ed
Koch (D) "said that unless Dinkins changes, he'd be beaten by
virtually any [GOP] challenger -- except possibly Pierre Rinfret,
whose [GOP gov. run against Gov. Cuomo last year became a
laughingstock." Koch: "I think he should pray that Rinfret
runs." Koch "said Dinkins would have no problem winning a race
for the [Dem] nomination, even if Council President Andrew Stein
were in it. Stein said last fall that he was considering a 1993
run for mayor" (N.Y. DAILY NEWS, 3/9). Dinkins: "To those who
are sharpening their pencils and determining they may seek this
office, I don't intend to just leave." Dinkins' "popularity will
be put to the test [3/20], when he holds his first major
fundraiser, a $1,000-a-plate affair" (N.Y. POST, 3/9). N.Y.
TIMES headline: "Dinkins Booed at an Irish Parade" (3/11).
SIGN OF TROUBLE: City labor relations commissioner Eric
Schmertz resigned 3/9 "in a feud with the city budget
commissioner over wage deferrals for municipal unions. ...
the
flap erupted last week when union leaders learned that Budget
Director Philip Michael had sent a memo to Moody's Investment
Service [2/4] saying negotiations were underway to help close the
city's budget gap by having municipal union workers defer 1.5% of
their wages for three years.' Labor leaders denied any such
negotiations were underway and "Schmertz claimed Michael had
trampled on his turf as the city's chief labor negotiator. But
Mayor Dinkins refused to fire Michael, and [3/9] called Schmertz'
resignation a 'vindication' for the budget director and for his
administration" (DAILY NEWS, 3/10).
FRAUD: "The fraud and conspiracy trial" of Rep. Floyd Flake
(D-06) "is set to begin today in Brooklyn federal court, with
prosecutors expected to detail" how he and his wife "allegedly
embezzled thousands of dollars" (N.Y. POST, 3/11).
*18 SOUTH CAROLINA: HOLLINGS DEFENDS ANTI-WAR VOTE
At a lunch meeting 3/4 with local Rotary and Kiwanis Club
members, Sen. Ernest Hollings (D) "defended his anti-war
position." Hollings: "I thought in addition to waving yellow
flags, I thought we ought to wave our pocketbooks, and,
incidentally, we're going to have to." However, Hollings told
the crowd "he is pleased with the war's outcome": "While there
might have been an argument for [not] going to war, there's no
argument for going to war and winning decisively. We lost more
[people] on the highways of South Carolina since January 1 than
we lost in this six-week war." Following his speech, Hollings
said "he thinks American money should be kept out of the
reconstruction of Kuwait": "They've got the money to
reconstruct. We'll get the contracts" (SUMTER DAILY ITEM, 3/6).
Today's WASH. POST featured an op-ed by Hollings "The Great
Budget Hoax.'
LEGISLATORS FOUND GUILTY OF CORRUPTION: In the second trial
resulting from an FBI investigation of SC Statehouse corruption,
a Columbia jury 3/8 "deliberated only 90 minutes before
convicting two lawmakers of selling their votes." State Reps.
B.J. Gordon (D) and Larry Blanding (D), who "had been videotaped
taking cash-filled envelopes" last year from a Government
informer "in exchange for their support of a bill that would have
legalized horse and dog racing," were "convicted on one count
each of conspiring to violate
an antibribery statute."
Blanding was "also convicted" of two counts of bribery "for
accepting
cash payments" and "faces a maximum sentence" of 60
years in prison and a $750,000 fine, while Gordon, who "was
convicted of one count of bribery,
could get 40 years in
prison and a $500,000 fine." Gordon and Blanding "are among 14
state legislators who were indicted on either drug or bribery
charges" as a result of Operation Lost Trust, an undercover FBI
operation "that began in 1989." Most of the defendents in the
sting "have pleaded guilty and await sentencing" (N.Y. TIMES,
3/10).
CALIFORNIA CABLE
*19 L.A. POLICE BEATING: SHOULD GATES GO?
"Reacting to controversy that has prompted calls for his
dismissal, LA Police Chief/potential gov. candidate Daryl Gates
"recommended felony prosecution" 3/7 "for three officers who
participated in the beating" of suspect Rodney King. Mayor Tom
Bradley, who "appeared pleased with Gates' call for disciplinary
actions,
said he would not attempt to remove Gates, as some
civil rights groups have demanded." ACLU of Southern CA Exec.
Dir. Ramona Ripston "said Gates' response did not go far enough"
and "reiterated her call for Gates to resign": "He still says
that this is an aberration and I don't believe this.
Instances similar to the one we have on videotape happen all the
time." Gates: "I have absolutely no thoughts of resigning.
...
If anything, this is a time for strength of leadership" (LA
TIMES, 3/8). At a 3/7 press conference, reporters "raised
questions not only about King's beating, but about a number of
incidents involving officers and blacks over the years. " Gates
"denied that the department exhibited racism in its handling of
minorities" (3/8). LA TIMES editorial: "In the wake of an
incident that has shocked the nation, [Gates] is willing to fully
acknowledge that a few officers used excessive force and should
be punished. But he is still missing the crucial larger issue:
the systemic problems that appear to exist within the department.
individual error. It calls into question the training, the
disciplinary procedures and the very culture of the LAPD. Why
would a group of officers believe they could beat up a suspect
and get away with it without any consequences? These actions --
and the inaction of the officers who watched -- suggest that
something may be terribly wrong within the LAPD" (3/8). Despite
Gates' "public condemnation of the attack, the issue remains a
sensitive one within the [police] department" (3/9). WASH.
POST's William Raspberry writes, "Given the long histroy of
racial allegations against members of the department, and the
chief's apparent inability to curb his men, the head that should
roll now sits squarley on the stiff neck of Chief Gates. ...
The
impression is that Gates cares less avbout the brutality that
persists in his department than about the damage to his public
relations" (3/11).
CAMPAIGNS '91
*20 LOUISIANA GOVERNOR: ROEMER SWITCHING TO GOP
This a.m.'s New Orleans TIMES-PICAYUNE headline: "Roemer
switching parties, state GOP chairman says" (3/11). Gov. Buddy
Roemer (D-LA) "will become the first sitting governor in modern
history to change parties" after meeting last night at the
governor's mansion with LA GOP chair Billy Nungesser and four GOP
"possible candidates for governor" -- "U.S. Reps. Richard Baker
and Clyde Holloway, Lt. Gov. Paul Hardy and former Gov. Dave
Treen." Nungesser said "Roemer is a prime candidate for the
convention to endorse" but insisted "Roemer's decision to change
does not guarantee that he will have the organization's official
backing" in the race. Roemer chief of staff P.J. Mills, "said
Friday that Roemer would make the change" (Alan Sayre, AP, 3/10).
DALLAS MORNING NEWS' Sam Attlesey reports that on 3/7, two GOP
congressmen -- Reps. Robert Livingston (R-01) and Jim McCrery (R-
04) -- "all but endorsed Roemer for governor should he switch"
(3/9). "Holloway said he has not promised to step aside for
Roemer, Treen, [Henson] Moore, or anyone else" (McKinney and
Shuler/Baton Rouge MORNING ADVOCATE, 3/8). Roemer has set a news
conference for 11:00am today to formally announce his decision.
(TIMES-PICAYUNE, 3/11). Nungesser said Roemer did not seek
gubernatorial commitments at the private meeting with top GOP
brass and got none" (Baton Rouge MORNING ADVOCATE, 3/11).
MOORE: Ex-Rep./U.S. Dep. Energy Sec. Henson Moore (R), who
gave up his House seat in the '86 Senate race only to lose to
John Breaux, "is considering" getting into the race. "Moore,
buoyed by a favorable showing in a recent poll, has told the
White House he is interested." The "unavailable" poll "showed
that Moore
still has high name recognition around the state.
The source said the poll showed Roemer with high negatives.
Moore needs the White House conference 'to determine the
obligations he has (to the president), the plans the
administration has for him" (MORNING ADVOCATE, 3/8).
ROEMER GOP PHOTO-OP? TIMES-PICAYUNE reports Barbara Bush
and Roemer will both be in East Jefferson, LA., 3/13 to present
an excellence award to a local Jr. High School (3/8).
OTHERS: "Former banking commissioner Fred Dent and former
Education Superintendent Tom Clausen are thinking of joining" the
race. Dent: "There is a very high probability that I will make
the race." State Rep. David Duke (R) "is expected to announce
his candidacy this week"; "Treen said he would let his official
plans be known this week" (AP, 3/10).
*21 KENTUCKY GOVERNOR: JONES & WILKINSON IN "DEATH DANCE"
Louisville COURIER-JOURNAL's Robert Garrett writes, "In [KY]
right now, we're lucky to have two politicians so absorbed with
themselves and one another that they sometimes forget we're
watching. The two," outgoing-Gov. Wallace Wilkinson (D) and LG
Brereton Jones (D), "locked horns again last week and resumed
what's likely to be a death dance for one or both of them."
Jones "paints" the 5/28 Dem gov. primary "as a titanic struggle
between good (himself) and evil (that little Napoleon running our
state. He asks a lot) Jones, "goody-two-shoes that he is, he
has won over many fans with pained expressions and tongue
control, in much the same way Bjorn Borg used to profit from John
McEnroe's tantrums.
Because Jones has seemed indecisive so
often, it was a given that Gov. Wilkinson would pounce and mock
Jones' new resolve. But Wilkinson charged over to Louisville
[3/7] and spewed bile, not barbs.
And so the saga of Mad
King Wally and Jell-0 Jones continues, headed perhaps toward
mutual assured oblivion. We may not have them long, so let's
read their lips and enjoy them while we can" (3/10)
CARVILLE CARNIVAL: James Carville "reprised his role" as
Wilkinson "carnival barker" 3/7, saying, in a half-hour TV
interview, "that he'll probably play a big part" in Martha
Wilkinson's campaign (Fran Ellers, C-J). Carville, "a sharp-
tongued political consultant with a startling success rate
was the chief strategist in Wilkinson's 1987 victory and has
been an adviser to the [gov.] ever since. However, he has
remained in the background since the 1990 General Assembly, when
he angered lawmakers by referring to them with an expletive and
advising Wilkinson on [TV ads] that criticized them. Jones
spokesperson Diana Taylor "declined to respond to 'attacks by
out-of-state consultants'": "Mr. Carville must have just read
some new polls showing that we're getting further ahead" (3/8).
BATHER JOLTS POORE: Dr. Floyd Poore's (D) "efforts to
establish an electoral beachhead in Jefferson [Co.'s] black
community came under a cloud late last week, as Louisville
Alderman Paul Bather [D] complained publicly about Joe Johnson,
the manager of Poore's campaign" (Al Cross, C-J). Bather: "He
is the only perceived liability I see Floyd having.
...
He
doesn't have the organizational talents that are necessary to run
a campaign of this stature. He's in over his head." Bather, a
Poore supporter, "said he was taking the unusual step of making
his feelings about Johnson public to illustrate the depth of his
concern" (3/10).
QUESTIONING A BUSH ENDORSEMENT: Atty Larry Forgy (R)
"bashed" Rep. Larry Hopkins [R-06], for claiming that Hopkins
already had won the support of President Bush for the
governorship. Forgy said Hopkins has proclaimed during several
appearances that Bush has committed to campaign in [KY] for the
congressman. But Forgy noted that he had been a top state
officer in two of the last three [pres.] elections. And he said
Bush would 'never violate his position of neutrality as the de
facto head of the [GOP] by intervening in the primary.' Hopkins
could not be reached for comment, but a spokesman at his campaign
headquarters in Lexington said that Bush has committed to
Hopkins" (AP/C-J, 3/9).
*22 TX 03: BARTLETT RESIGNATION TAKES EFFECT TODAY
Rep. Steve Bartlett (R-03) left Congress 3/7, "marking the
end of an eight-year House career and the beginning of his full-
time campaign" for Dallas mayor. His resignation takes effect
today. "He said that although he was not legally required to
resign from Congress before running for mayor, he did so out of
fairness to residents" of his 3rd CD. Bartlett, "who had
$167,323 in his federal campaign account as of [12/31] told
reporters that he will not use any of it in his mayoral race,
even though federal law permits it. He said he plans to refund
the money to individual contributors, beginning with the most
recent donors. He does not plan to return money to political
action committees, he said. He has also pledged not to get
involved in the campaign to elect his congressional successor."
The Dallas election is scheduled for 5/4. A spokeswoman for Gov.
Ann Richards (D) "said the governor would not set a date for a
special election to replace" Bartlett until his resignation takes
effect 3/11 (DALLAS MORNING NEWS, 3/8).
*23 PHILADELPHIA MAYOR: GOODE BACKS BURRELL
Mayor Wilson Goode (D) endorsed ex-councilmember George
Burrell (D) for the 5/21 primary. Goode: "I think when you look
at the candidates and look at who has the broadest potential of
growth in terms of coalition-building, I believe that rests with
George Burrell." The mayor faced a "difficult choice" in
deciding between "his old friend" ex-Philly Managing Dir. James
White and Burrell (S.A. Paolantonio, PHILA. INQUIRER). According
to Dems close to the mayor, "Goode selected Burrell because he
wanted to support" Rep. Bill Gray (D-02) and the "black clergy
leaders.
But, Goode seems to have failed to unite the black
community behind one candidate." An internal poll of 809 Dems,
taken "the last week in February" by Cooper & Secrest for ex-
Philly Bar Assn. Peter Hearn (D) showed ex-D.A. Ed Rendell "in a
strong position" to win the primary with 38%. Ex-councilmember
Lucien Blackwell had 17%, Hearn 9% and White and Burrell with 8%
each. "The poll contradicts Goode's contention that Burrell has
more growth potential than White. Burrell has a somewhat higher
positive rating than White," 36% to 33%. But "Burrell also has a
higher negative rating than White's,' 29% to 24% (3/11).
CASTILLE: Philly GOPers "are plotting how to get Bush" for
the '91 campaigns, "especially" if Vietnam vet/D.A. Ron Castille
wins the primary. Some GOPers worry that bringing in Bush would
give the Dems "a chance to stoke disappointment with the Reagan-
Bush era
inciting protesters, especially AIDS activists, and
reducing" the GOP's "appeal among key liberal swing voters"
(INQUIRER, 3/10).
POLL UPDATE
*24 TIME/CNN: "DRAMATIC REVERSAL" IN ATTITUDES ON THE ECONOMY
Conducted 3/7 by Yankelovich Clancy Shulman; surveyed 1,000
adults; margin of error +/- 3% (TIME, 3/18 issue).
IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS, WILL
IS U.S. PULLING OUT
ECONOMIC CONDITIONS IN U.S.
OF CURRENT RECESSION?
NOW
1/91
YES
NO
Get better
44%
19%
54%
40%
Turn for the worse
15
43
Stay the same
40
HOW WOULD YOU DESCRIBE ECONOMIC CONDITIONS IN THE U.S. TODAY?
Fairly good
49%
Poor
38
WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING ARE THE LESSONS FROM THE GULF WAR?
A LESSON
NOT A LESSON
U.S. still the greatest military power
86%
11%
U.S. must increase efforts to end
unrest in teh Milddle East
65
28
U.S. should not hesitate to use
military force to protect its
interests around the world
58
34
Only U.S. can take the lead in protecting
democracy around the world
43
50
SHOULD THE U.S. BE PLAYING THE ROLE OF WORLD
YES
NO
POLICEMAN, FIGHTING AGGRESSION WHEREVER IT OCCURS?
21%
75%
DOES U.S. PERFORMANCE IN THE WAR GIVE YOU MORE OR LESS
CONFIDENCE IN:
MORE CONFIDENCE LESS CONFIDENCE
U.S. military
93%
3%
American presidency
86
8
Republican Party
65
16
U.S. Media
54
34
Democratic Party
41
34
TV MONITOR
*25 THIS MORNING: NBC's "Today" interviewed Gen. Norman
Schwarzkopf. CBS' "This Morning" hosted Yassir Arafat. FOX's
"Morning News" interviewed Margaret Thatcher, Rep. Tom Lantos (D-
CA), FDIC chair William Seidman, and Friends of the Earth's Brent
Blackwelder on the Gulf's environmental status. Arafat: "We are
not asking to send
General Schwarzkopf, but at least to push
the Israelis to accept the United Nations' resolutions" (CBS).
Blackwelder: "You need a full scale environmental Marshall plan
to do the job.
The environment cannot be forgotten, we need
to be as aggressive in cleaning up
...
as we were in pursuing the
military [plan]" (FOX).
THIS WEEKEND: Friday leads: CBS showed lengthy
unemployment lines as part of its intro: "Post war euphoria ran
up against the latest dose of economic reality today" (Rather).
NBC's 3/8 lead: "From Operation Desert Storm to Operation Party
Time
Wives, husbands, lovers, children, parents, grass,
trees, pizza, beer, and no need for gas masks -- welcome home"
(Brokaw). ABC opened with the reception given to returning
troops, "the likes of which the veterans of America's last war,
Vietnam, never saw. Like almost everything else in the highly
successful U.S. effort in the gulf, it all happened in story-book
fashion" (Donaldson). CBS labeled it "The kind of hero's welcome
that hasn't been seen since the end of World War II." (Rather,
3/8). CBS also covered the "coming war over veterans benefits"
(3/9). ABC's "Persons of the Week" 3/8: "the 120 Americans who
won't be coming home.' The "Jesse Jackson" show examined the
press in the gulf, "battling military censorship" (3/10). NBC's
"Meet the Press" hosted DSCC chair Sen. Charles Robb (D-VA) and
NRSC chair Sen. Phil Gramm (R-TX). John McLaughlin's "One on
One" hosted ex-Drug Czar William Bennett and ex-DNC chair Bob
Strauss. CBS' "Face the Nation" hosted VP Quayle, Bennett and
Gov. Doug Wilder (D-VA). ABC's "This Week" hosted French Prime
Minister Michel Rocard, Sen. Maj. Leader George Mitchell, House
Speaker Tom Foley (D-WA) and Rep. Newt Gingrich (R-GA).
HIGHER UNEMPLOYMENT: ABC's intro reporting unemployment
("its highest level in nearly four years") "White collar
workers -- in the recession, no one's safe" (Donaldson, 3/8).
NBC's Brokaw said, "Desert Storm veterans are coming home to a
country in recession, of course
however
the jobs of most
of the GIs should be safe" (3/8)
THEY'RE BACK: ABC's promo of the return of their "America
Agenda" focus on issues, as the words Health, Education, Drugs
and Environment flashed on the screen: "Remember the way it was
before the war? Things still need change" (3/10).
BAKER "ON THE ROAD AGAIN": "In the Middle East right now,
the United States is dealing form a position of great strength --
that's why Secretary of State Baker is on the road again" (ABC,
3/8). Baker "will be listening closely to see if any member of
the Kuwaiti Royal Family even mentions the possibility of
elections, something the U.S. very much wants to hear" (John
McWethy, 3/8). NBC's Brokaw said Baker is in the Mideast "with
his blueprints and his estimates" -- and NBC's Dancy added,
"this, despite decades of failed American efforts" (3/8). Pat
Buchanan predicts when Baker arrives in Israel he'll see that
"the Likud Party does want peace but it also wants the West Bank
and is not going to give it up, and given the tremendous support
they've got in the U.S. Congress and support in parts of this
country, Mr. Bush will not go all the way in trying to push an
Israeli/Palestinian agreement" ("McLaughlin Group, " 3/10). NBC's
3/9 intro: "This country fought for Kuwait's liberation. The
question now is whether we fought for its liberty" (Utley).
NBC's graphic joined pictures of Sec/State Baker and the Emir of
Kuwait over the words, "More Democracy" (3/9). ABC also said
Baker is "trying to parlay the Allies' military victory into
diplomatic momentum" (Simpson), but after reporting the stabbing
murder of four Jewish women by a Palestinian, ABC's Dean Reynolds
added the visit is "what many Israelis suspect is a one-sided
effort to force concessions from them" (3/10). NBC's John Dancy
said Baker "hung out the 'Open for Business' sign on his Middle
East peace bazaar today and found, it not buyers, at least some
Arab shoppers." But Ed Rabel, reporting from Israel after the
stabbings -- "an attack the police say is directly related to the
Baker visit" -- noted Baker will find "a Jerusalem filled with
anger" (NBC, 3/10). CBS' 3/9 intro: "Baker visits a liberated
Kuwait and gets a promise of democracy." Baker, on the
possibilty of Iraq using chemical weapons against anti-Saddam
uprisings: "We have reason to believe that they might be
planning such activity, and we thought it was importatnt that we
let them know how we would view that" (CBS, 3/9). CBS' Bill
Plante: "Change does indeed seem inevitable, but chances are it
won't happen according to the script." CBS commentary from Bruce
Morton, on Bush's goal of peace for the region: "We should wish
him good luck, because he's going to need it" (3/9).
GOAT OF THE WEEK: "Record's" Bob Beckel selected as his
"Goat of the Week" L.A. Police Chief Dale Gates, "a thug for
years
Dale Gates ought to resign, and if he doesn't resign
they ought to throw him out" (3/10).
TV SOUNDBITE
"What's now happening is my greatest fear.
This vacuum is being filled by the Gong Show."
-- Dem strategist Bob Beckel, on the lack of '92 Dem candidates,
"Off the Record,' FOX-TV, 3/10
####