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[News Articles 1991-1992]
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Records of the White House Office of Speechwriting (George H. W. Bush Administration)
Tony Snow Subject Files
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administrative marker by the George Bush Presidential
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George H.W. Bush Presidential Records
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Speechwriting, White House Office of
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Snow, Tony, Files
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13896
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[News Articles 1991-1992]
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18
29
2
4
IRON CURTAIN PLAQUE
This piece of barbed wire is a part of the Iron Curtain alongside
the Hungarian-Austrian border, that palpalbly represented the
division of the European continent in two halves. Its
dismantling was made possible by the will of the HUNGARIAN PEOPLE
and the recognition of peaceful coexistence and mutual
interdependence. We believe that the artificial, physical and
spiritual walls still existing in the world, someday shall
collapse everywhere.
THE PEASE REPORT
A Confidential
Newsletter to NH's
Movers and Shakers
TO: OUR SUBSCRIBERS
September 18 , 1991
FROM: R. WARREN PEASE
NO.16
NEW HAMPSHIRE SENATE Republicans are unhappy.
No!
Not unhappy, furious!
Details of Senate President Ed Dupont's backroom dealings relating
to the reshaping of the senate districts are being called a sell-out
to the Democrats.
The word has reached Republican lawmakers that Dupont has assured
Democrat Senators Jeanne Shaheen and Beverly Hollingworth that he will
not touch their districts.
My word processor didn't fail. It is printing this as I intended
it to be printed.
Shaheen of Madbury and Hollingworth of Hampton two very liberal
members of the upper chamber, worked very closely with Republican Dupont
in the last session. To assure that this support continues, Dupont
promised the seacoast duo he would not approve any redistricting plan
that changed the existing make-up of Senate Districts 21 and 23.
"He's screwing up redistricting, " is the expressed opinion of one
of Dupont's senate colleagues.
Most senators understand the politics of redistricting. What they
can't understand is Dupont's wheeling and dealing with two of the
senate's most liberal Democrat members.
The remark of one Republican lawmaker was representative of the
reaction of a majority of senate and rank and file Republicans when she
said, "This kind of deal does nothing to help the party or Dupont's
future political ambitions."
There's little that can be added to her assessment. Dupont's
reported deal with Shaheen and Hollingworth may help him get through
next year's legislative session with less aggravation. It does nothing
to enhance his political ambitions to become governor.
#
#
#
DISREGARD!
We repeat disreard media reports, and the mouthings of Hugh Gregg
that President George Bush is going to sit out the New Hampshire
Presidential primary.
We have talked personally with the political powers that be in
Washington and the word is, "Under no circumstances will President
George Bush sit out the primary."
There you have it, the final word.
And you read it here first!
This doesn't mean you're going to have the kind of exciting
presidential primary that we have witnessed in recent years. The
opposition to Bush's renomination is almost non-existent. A full blown
campaign isn't necessary. (Continued on page 2)
© Copyright,
AT LARGE, The Pease Report is published weekly for the confidential information of our subscribers by Media Images Ltd., Suite 111, Unit 4, 7 Colby Court,
Bedford, NH 03110, (603) 472-8339. Subscription rates: 52 weeks $95, 26 weeks $60, 10 weeks $25.
-2-
But!
This does not mean the President is going to by-pass New Hampshire
and let his would-be Democrat challengers bang away at him without fear
of a returned salvo.
The excitement of past Presidential primaries in New Hampshire
will be missing.
George Bush will not.
#
#
#
THERE'S MORE FROM the political powers that be in Washington.
Ignore the shoot-from-the-hip commentary of Hugh Gregg as it
relates to the negative status of Vice President Dan Quayle.
The President is not, we repeat, is not, going to dump Quayle from
the ticket in '92.
The liberal wing, what's left of it, of the GOP, would like to
return to power in 1996 by convincing Bush to dump Quayle and select a
liberal as his running mate.
We've heard from reliable sources that the elder Gregg is a major
mover in this grab for power. In his role as Republican National
Committeeman from New Hampshire he has the ear of those national
Republican liberals who want one more day in the sun before total
darkness engulfs them.
This is the reason behind Gregg's thinly disguised efforts to
force Quayle into a Vice-Presidential write-in campaign.
A write-in campaign he may be get, but Bush's support for Quayle's
ouster will never be forthcoming.
"No way," is the word out of Washington.
Bet on it! Bet big.
#
#
#
DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL aspirants are putting on a brave front for
the public.
But!
To paraphrase a one-time hit song, "They're laughing on the
outside and crying on the inside."
The extent of their despair can best be judged by some
enlightening financial figures that have been passed along to us.
By Labor Day of 1983 the Democrat Presidential aspirants had
raised $12 million. Remember this was the war chest put together for the
right to oppose Ronald Reagan in his bid for a second term.
You all know the outcome of that race.
By Labor Day of 1987, the would-be Democrat Presidents had raised
$17 million in their campaign to carry the battle to the Republicans.
You all remember what George Bush did to Michael Dukakis.
By Labor Day 1991, the would-be Democrat challengers have raised a
mere $700,000.
You're senses have not left you.
That's $700,000.
This isn't enough financial moisture to wet a political whistle,
not a presidential political whistle.
And keep in mind that this total is a national total.
Money makes the political wheels turn.
The Democrat challengers don't have it.
#
#
#
ELSEWHERE ON THE Presidenital front look for (Continued on page 3)
-3-
Iowa Senator Tom Harkins to be in New Hampshire for at least three days
this week. He's picking up some support in the state and can be
expected to generate his share of early interest among Democrats.
We wrote "early-interest" because Harkins" talks conservative but
votes liberal.
This will go over well with those liberals in the party who want a
possible winner and don't care what a candidate says so long as he votes
liberal.
But!
There are indications he'll lose the party's more-conservative
voters once his voting record becomes more publicized.
Arkansas' Bill Clinton was expected to be the heart throb of the
party's conservative wing but some skeletons have been unearthed in his
basement. This may not help him pass political muster. Insiders say
there are charges of marital infidelity which Clinton may not be able to
brush aside.
Democrat string pullers are saying privately Clinton could become
the Gary Hart of 1992 if his candidacy lasts that long.
Nebraska Senator Robert Kerrey is the new kid on the New Hampshire
block. He's a stranger to New Hampshire Democrats and is expected to
remain an outsider even if his reconsideration of an earlier
reconsideration results in a bid for the Democrat nomination.
In Washington the Nebraska Kerrey is considered "weird".
Paul Tsongas has the shortest distance to travel and he's spending
the most time in the state.
But!
Very few Democrats are taking his challenge very seriously. But he
win by default.
California's Jerry Brown will soon be grabbing his share of media
space in New Hampshuire but money is going to keep him in low gear, SO
the Democrats believe.
This would seem to leave the field open for Virginia Governor
Douglas Wilder.
Here to, there is a but.
A big but.
The Democrats we've spoken with say they don't like the man. He
comes across as "very unlikeble".
No one will say this publicly for fear of being called "racist",
but these political activists will find a role in other campaigns.
This lack of a stand out candidate has Democrats thinking ahead to
their party's nominating convention. They believe there won't be any one
candidate who will have enough votes to capture the nomination on the
first or second ballot.
They see a scenario in which there are three or four ballots
without a winner followed by the emergence of a compromise candidate.
They think either Lloyd Bentsen or Mario Cumo would be acceptable
to the delegates.
Could such a series of events occur?
Possibly!
But!
Not very likely.
Whenever there is a field of little known candidates of national
stature vying for a presidential nomination there is talk of choosing a
candidate from the floor of the convention.
Its been a long, long time since such an event has happened.
1992 doesn't give promise of being the year for change.
One of the above mentioned candidates, or someone yet. to appear,
will emerge as the front runner and when such a candidate comes forth,
whatever his current standing in the polls, he'll (Continued on page 4)
-4-
be the choice of the convention.
This you can almost bet on.
#
#
#
CALIFORNIA'S THREATENED plan to move up its Presidential Primary
date to compete with New Hampshire has been put on hold.
The Democrat boys on the coast are concerned that such a move at
this time would interfere with the state's redistricting plans.
This they see as more important than changing the date of the
Presidential primary.
It may come some day. It won't come in 1991 or 1992.
#
#
#
MEMBERS OF THE Governor's Executive Council were witness to an
Executive Council "first" last week.
The usually unflappable Governor lost his temper.
He screamed his opposition to the Council's announced intention to
act independently of the Governor and vote to oust Peter G. Weeks from
the Portsmouth Police Commission.
Peter Weeks has come under heavy, very heavy, fire for accepting a
$25,000 check from Phil Weeks, no relation, who was recently convicted
of misappropriating nursing home funds. Just prior to his conviction,
Phil Weeks, reportedly turned over $25,000 to Peter Weeks for his kid's
education. There was little doubt in anyone's mind that the $25,000 was
nursing home funds, or at least funds that Phil Weeks would have to
surrender once he was convicted and filed bankruptcy.
When this became known to Governor Gregg, shortly after he had
nominated Peter Weeks for another three year term and the Council rubber
stamped his nomination, Gregg called on Weeks privately and asked him
to resign. Weeks refused.
Attorney General John Arnold then intervened, again privately, and
repeated Gregg's request that Weeks step down.
Weeks refused.
At a private get together the council attempted to use it's power
of removal. Second District Councilor Peter Spaulding led the charge
with the argument, Weeks' continued presence on the commission was a
black eye to police everywhere in the state. A police commissioner he
argued, should be above reproach.
The Governor and Attorney General agreed.
But!
It's a helluva "but".
Both Gregg and Arnold argued against the council taking action.
So help me, it happened!
Gregg's Attorney General told Councilors they lacked sufficient
grounds to oust WEEKS and if they took any action they would expose the
council to a lawsuit.
His argument carried the day.
The Council fumes.
Weeks stays.
At least temporarily.
The citizens of Portsmouth were SO angered by the turn of events
they were successful in getting a referendum on the November ballot
which will, if adopted, abolish the police commission.
There is some irony connected with this.
WEEKS when he was mayor worked hard to get the city council to
abolish the commission.
That's right. (Continued on page 5)
Now that the voters want Weeks gone from the commission and are
willing, or at least seem willing, to abolish the commission to
accomplish this, the ex-mayor may achieve what he failed to achieve when
he occupied the seat of power.
We'll keep you updated.
#
#
#
TRANSPORTATION Commissioner Charles 'Leary may be out of a job
come December.
The Bedford man's term expires on the third of that month and he
will have to do a lot of fence mending between now and December 3 if he
wants the Council to give him a four-year term.
O'Leary has not made friends with a majority on the Executive
Council. He's been a headstrong, 'll-do-it-my-way kind of a
commissioner. He's rubbed many people the wrong way.
And!
There is another shortcoming that could prove to be more important
in any reappointment consideration. He has not done the kind of job that
makes him indispensable to the operation of the agency.
We'll have more on this.
#
#
#
JOHN EAMES, a name long familiar in political and criminal law
doings in Grafton County, may be nearing the end of his stint as county
attorney.
Tn his 1990 campaign for re-election he was (Continued on page 6)
CAREER POSITIONS:
BUSINESS BROKERAGE MANAGER -
REALTY
BEDFORD, N.H., FOR START-UP COMPANY THAT
IS AFFILIATED WITH LEADERS IN REAL ESTATE
RECRUITERS
BROKERAGE FIELD, EMBARKED ON AGGRES-
SIVE EXPANSION PROGRAM. LOOKING FOR IN-
OFNE
DIVIDUAL TO FORMULATE & IMPLEMENT
MARKETING PLAN, RECRUIT & MOTIVATE SALES
TEAM, AND ESTABLISH COMPANY POLICY. COM-
PENSATION THROUGH DIRECT SALES OVERRIDE
AND EQUITY POSITION IN COMPANY. BUSINESS
BROKERAGE EXPERIENCE A MUST!
REAL ESTATE SALES: RESIDENTIAL SALES
WITH MANCHESTER AREA FIRM WITH EMPHASIS
SEND RESUME TO:
ON LIQUIDATION OF FORECLOSED PROPERTIES.
MR. REAL TORREZ
REAL ESTATE LICENSE REQUIRED - TRAINING
REALTY RECRUITERS OF N.E.
PROVIDED.
10 CHESTNUT DRIVE
BEDFORD, N.H. 03110
REAL ESTATE SALES: COMMERCIAL AGENT,
REAL ESTATE LICENSE (N.H.) REQUIRED -
MANCHESTER AREA TRAINING PROVIDED.
POSITION INVOLVES DEALING WITH BUSINESS
PEOPLE, DURING BUSINESS HOURS, MONDAY
THRU FRIDAY.
-6-
put to the test by challenger Ken Anderson.
And!
Eames' popularity appears to have declined since then. His
laid-back, 'll-get-to-it-when-I-can approach to criminal prosecution
has voters upset.
What has the citizenry aroused is Eames' failure to press the
prosecution of a man accused of beating his wife to death with the butt
of a rifle. The case has been dragging for a long time.
#
#
#
SHORT TAKES--MAX HUGEL, the former chief spy of the CIA has
formed a national committee to raise dollars for the legal defense of
members of the agency, past and present, who come under attack from
lawmakers and detractors intent on discrediting the agency.
If you think the Presidential Primary season is dull in New
Hampshire you should take a trip to Iowa. Political action in the farm
state which tries to go one up on New Hampshire by holding statewide
party caucuses a week earlier than the Granite State, is less exciting
than a corn husking bee minus the corn.
Will or won't Warren Rudman seek reelection, is the question of
the week, and the man from Nashua is adroitly grabbing himself some free
publicity.
I won't play his game.
But!
Few people remember that Rudman, when he made his first bid for
the Senate, told voters he would seek only two terms. Will he follow
Gordon Humphrey's example and live up to his campaign promise?
POWER
Some Have It, Others Want It, We Deliver It.
Each week thousands of New Hampshire's most powerful people turn
to the pages of AT LARGE - The Pease Report for a confidential look
at what moves the state politically and economically, and the people
who push the buttons that generate the shifts and slides.
Harness The Power
Advertise on the pages of
AT LARGE - The Pease Report
Call Today
472-8339
Ask for Ed Pease
ivy business forum
Industry Profile
Graduates With Full-Time Employment
Arts-7
TESTING THE WATERS:
Business-220
Comm-21
Comp./Engine-19
Education-30
Career Opportunities in the "Real World"
Government-16
Health-17
Legal-26
Research-9
Skill Labor-2
Social-13
Sports-3
Unknown-3
Introduction by Joyce Campbell
Management Consulting by Christina Auth
These are statistics for Dartmouth College
Investment Banking by Joyce Campbell
Office of Career and Employment Ser-
the second world war, with the appear-
Commercial Banking by Bill Gaylord
vices, 591 of the 1042 graduates in the
ance of Booz-Allen Hamilton and
Accounting by Barry Hurwitz
class of 1988 planned to find full-time
McKinsey as well as the emergence of
employment. Of these 591 graduates,
western European firms, management
Real Estate by Gregg Brockway
71% of had been offered jobs. Current-
consulting became firmly established.
ly, 394 are employed -- the majority of
Since the 1950's and 1960's, smaller
them (220) are in business.
"sole practitioner" firms appeared and
While reported salary figures ranged
have since become a significant force in
Christina Auth, Joyce Campbell, Bill Gaylord, Barry Hurwitz are juniors
from $10,000 to $45,000, the average
the consulting business. Finally, two
at Dartmouth College. Gregg Brockway is a senior at Dartmouth
starting salary for those offered full-
other important developments in the
College.
time jobs in the Dartmouth class of
1960's have further changed the face of
1988 was $23,917 (Leonard W. Chang).
management consulting. These include
Introduction
ing fields for corporate recruiters from
Based upon these statistics, it was
the arrival of pure strategy houses such
some of the nation's most prestigious
discovered that the areas of business
as the Boston Consulting Group (BCG)
Each winter Ivy League campuses
firms and corporations. Students ner-
which attract the most students are con-
and the expansion of "big eight" ac-
are remarkably transformed into hunt-
vously don pinstripes, compile impres-
sulting, investment banking, and com-
counting firms into consulting services.
sive resumes, and review various com-
mercial banking. In our quest to learn
Although it is difficult to define
pany
profiles.
more about these popular industries, we
management consulting precisely, the
Number of Graduates Entering Business
Through this whirl-
interviewed various Dartmouth gradu-
most commonly accepted definition is
250
wind of preparation,
ates and executives and compiled other
that management consulting is "an advi-
visions of high-
pertinent information. Through the fol-
sory service contracted for and provided
salaries and big
lowing five profiles, we hope to share
to organizations by specially trained and
200
Wall Street names
with you this insight and to provide a
qualified persons who assist in an inde-
Graduates
may become reali-
revealing glimpse at various careers for
pendent and objective manner, the
of Graduates
ties.
the future businessperson.
client organization to identify manage-
150
Within the past
ment problems, analyze such problems,
decade, the number
Management Consulting
recommend solutions to these problems,
of college graduates
and help, when requested, in the imple-
entering business-
Although management consulting is a
mentation of solutions" (Greiner and
100
1980
1982
1984
1988
1988
1990
related careers has
relatively young industry, it has grown
Metzger, Consulting to Management).
Year of Graduation
signficantly in-
rapidly since the first general-consulting
In general, the industry is distinguished
creased. According
firm, Arthur D. Little, was founded in
by its advisory nature, the limited num-
to statistics from the
the late nineteenth century. Following
ber of people qualified to give advice,
These are statistics for Dartmouth College
Dartmouth College
their role as independent and objective
34
Fall 1989
Fall 1989
35
ivy business forum
Industry Profile
Almanac of Jobs and Salaries, junior
to be very bright, "creative generalists"
As a result of the 1987 Crash, the se-
Some specialize in short term goals like
partners earn an average of $150,000
possessing a huge range of interests, the
curities industry experienced a tremen-
early financing and start-up functions,
yearly plus bonuses and the right to pur-
close relationships that he develops with
dous amount of structural and function-
while others approach longer-term pro-
chase shares of the firm; Senior partners
clients, and the sheer variety of experi-
al upheaval. Today, it is simplistic to
jects of management, personnel devel-
may have a salary in the range of
ence that he encounters on a daily basis.
think of investment banking as a homo-
opment, and problem resolution. Be-
If one decides to eventual-
geneous industry that was affected simi-
cause venture groups are generally
ly move out of the consult-
larly by this change. When contemplat-
small, competition for positions within
junior partners earn an
ing field, the experience
ing career possibilities, students should
the field is intense.
that one accumulates serves
explore the various aspects of these
average of $150,000 yearly
as a career-accelerator and
firms. Beyond the basics of raising,
Investment banking offers valuable
provides a solid overview
trading, and managing capital, invest-
plus bonuses and the right to
experience to a select group of students
of the business world. Peo-
ment banks offer many alternative spe-
who wish to pursue any of these special-
purchase shares of the firm
ple in consulting feel that
cialities:
ities within a particular firm. However,
primarily they attain an ap-
certain characteristics are especially in-
preciation for teamwork
CORPORATE FINANCE -- The corpo-
dicative of success as an investment
and the power of a small,
rate finance department of an invest-
banker. Recruiters search for an essen-
$300,000 as well as other compensa-
intense group. They also derive a sense
ment bank provides a variety of services
tial combination of traits -- the high in-
tion. Recent figures report that new
of affiliation with an exceptional group
to corporations --managing underwrit-
tellectual ability to analyze complex sit-
senior partners may earn as much as
of people who demonstrate that there is
ings, providing advice on mergers and
uations and quickly draw accurate
$600,000 annually. and veteran partners
value to their atypically intellectual ap-
acquisitions, and offering solutions to
conclusions; a fascination with corpo-
have been known to make in excess of
proach to business.
other financial problems. In this depart-
rate finance; a spirit of entrepreneurism;
S1 million.
ment, success depends upon the ability
and the commitment to a demanding ca-
Currently, minorities have little pres-
Investment Banking
to anticipate client needs and exploit
reer. If a student fits his description, his
ence at major consulting firms and they
market opportunities.
opportunities are endless.
only comprise between two to ten per-
A pinstripe-suited figure occupies a
At major New York investment
cent of firms on average. Women make
spacious office within the confines of a
MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS
banks, financial analysts and associates
up about 25 to 40 percent of entry-level
prosperous Wall Street firm. With a Ro-
With the advent of Time-Warner, RJR,
earn starting salaries of approximately
positions, and roughly ten percent of
lodex at his fingertips, he makes numer-
and other billion
$31,000. MBA's
partners are women. However, these
ous calls to his investors - managing
dollar deals, mer-
Investment banks have
usually start at a
figures are expected to increase with the
their portfolios according to the most re-
gers and acquisi-
base salary of
expanding number of minority and fe-
cent economic and industrial informa-
tions has become
continued to cut their
$60,000. Howev-
male business school graduates. Al-
tion. Predicting market fluctuations and
a high profile po-
investing capital in a fast-paced envi-
overhead and streamline
er, "total compen-
though management consulting is a tra-
sition in the world
sation is signifi-
ditionally male-dominated field, and is
ronment appeals to this Gekko-ish fig-
of investment
ure.
banking. M&A
staff organization in
cantly
higher
demanding for women who seek to bal-
because of bonus-
ance their career with family, the out-
In the 80's, this mystique attracts
associates design
order to increase
es ranging from
look for women in consulting is particu-
many young, competitive Ivy League
major strategic
25 to 100 percent
larly optimistic. Consulting is an
students to the world of investment
objectives
productivity.
of the original sal-
attractive option because of the flexible
banking. However, as an industry, in-
through formulat-
ary figure. A
and divisible nature of the work. Typi-
vestment banking was nonexistent in
ing takeover strat-
chairman at an in-
cally, a consultant will split work be-
the United States until the 30's. With the
egies and analyzing the eligibility of ac-
vestment bank may receive a salary of
tween two clients, so this makes it sim-
aftermath of the Crash, the 1934 Glass-
quisition candidates. Because of the
$150,000 with a bonus that could boost
ple to tailor the work-load and reduce it
Stegall Act separated the functions. of
recent escalation of activity and increas-
his compensation over two million dol-
to one client if necessary. Women may
commercial (collecting deposits and
ing competiveness" mergers and acqui-
lars.
still encounter barriers to entry at the
lending business) and investment (issu-
sitions is a highly challenging, and yet
Banking and securities industries are
highest levels of partnership, yet this is
ing and handling securities) banking.
significantly rewarding field.
slowly recovering from the shattering
likely to change as more women enter
Banks had to make a vital decision,
results of the 1987 crash. Companies
the industry.
about which path to pursue. Those who
VENTURE CAPITAL Venture capi-
have continued to cut their overhead
In conclusion, management consult-
opted for the investment side became
tal involves the financing of high risk,
and streamline staff organization in or-
ing is a highly rewarding, well paying,
concerned with raising capital through
rapidly-growing companies. Since the
der to increase productivity. Some firms
and challenging profession. Carl Stern
issuing securities and providing other
late 70's, investment banks have been
are suffering from increased competi-
highlights as the three most enjoyable
services for "corporate" clients --
involved in raising capital for small,
tion for investors' dollars while other
aspects of his work the interaction with
networking through old friendships and
high-tech companies. Venture groups
brokerages are hurt from the defection
people involved in consulting who tend
other business connections.
pursue different investments strategies.
of equity issuers and investors. Howev-
38
Fall 1989
Fall 1989
39
ivy business torum
Industry Profile
er, one potential change in the regula-
computer programing knowledge, it is
stand the corporation, but, not to partic-
analysis and projections of how a com-
tion of the banking-finance industry
easy to pick out general skills and indi-
ularly train them in a dedicated way."
pany will react in certain situations (re-
the repeal of the Glass-Stegall Act
vidual characteristics most employers
In discussing the training programs
cessions, liquidation of certain assets,
may bolster current conditions. Most
look for. There are several "buzz-
themselves, Nigel Ekern, a third year
etc.) which usually last a year to a year
analysts predict that the successful un-
words" which are commonly thrown
analyst with Chemical Bank, spoke
and a half. Because most daily tasks fo-
ion of the investment and commercial
around by commercial banking recruit-
highly of the quality and benefits of the
cus on dealings with other companies,
banking industries will create a few
ers: analytical/qualitative skills, com-
program he had completed at Chemical.
most business is done from nine to five.
large, full-service firms, other firms will
munication/interpersonal skills, creativi-
According to
As Ekem says,
concentrate upon their traditional
ty, flexibility, and the essential
Ekern, Chemi-
"I tend to keep
strengths - re-establishing niches in
component-initiative. Trying to iden-
cal's program
Horror stories of
my customers'
wholesale banking, retail banking, or
tify a certain type of persona, or certain
provided all the
hours. It's hard
mergers and acquisitions.
skills that are particular to commercial
training neces-
training programs with
to do anything
banking has not yielded any specific
sary for the po-
Commercial Banking
sixteen hour workdays
with anybody
traits or qualities outside those con-
sition. There
outside the bank
tained in the pool of buzzwords defin-
was no specific
background re-
of monotonous number
outside those
The Commercial Banking industry
ing marketable skills.
hours."
According to Richard Braddick, Ex-
quired.
The
has been growing larger because com-
crunching were
According to
mercial banks are now able to provide
ecutive in charge of the "Individual"
program provid-
Ekern,
there
an increasing number of financial ser-
banking sector at Citibank, Citibank is
ed a broad busi-
dispelled.
seemed to be a
vices for its customers. While the main
constantly looking for individuals who
ness background
natural break
function of commercial banks is to ac-
have a wide variety of backgrounds, tal-
that Ekern felt
with the bank's
cept deposits and loan money to indi-
ents, training, experience, and educa-
will make him
training pro-
viduals and businesses, the deregulation
tion. Because of the structure of the
marketable in areas outside commercial
gram at the three year point. This is the
of interest rates has caused commercial
"Individual" Bank (not a traditional
banking.
point at which most people return to
banks to expand to
commercial bank, but a type of retail
In contrast with investment training
school to carn an MBA. Ekem said no
include
"fee"
bank-centered
programs, Ekem felt that commercial
more than 20% of the third year analyst
oriented services.
more towards run-
banks invested more money in their
had MBAs, while in the higher levels,
The loosening of
Citibank is constantly
ning consumer
training programs. This may be reflect-
about 50% of the executives had
the Glass-Steagall
looking for
businesses), a mar-
ed in starting salary differentiation—
MBAs. It is not uncommon for those
standards restrict-
keting orientation
commercial banks may have lower start-
remaining with the bank longer than
ing commercial
individuals who have
and an interest in
ing offers in order to compensate for the
three years to go to night school while
bank activities has
running consumer
costs of their training programs. Be-
working. An MBA does not seem to be
allowed the com-
a wide variety of
businesses
are
cause of the bank's increased invest-
a necessity for upward mobility. There
mercial banking
more desirable ac-
ment in their training programs, they are
are formalized routes for advancement,
industry to move
backgrounds, talents,
cording to Brad-
more concerned with holding on to em-
but, relatively speaking, there are more
in the direction of
dick. Again, it is
ployees who have completed them. Ac-
MBAs in the higher executive positions
an
"all-
experience, and
important to keep
cording to Career Employment Service
in both Citibank and Chemical Bank.
encompassing" fi-
education.
in mind that the
figures, the median starting offer for
When asked what they enjoyed most
nancial institution.
department or spe-
commercial banking in 1988 was
about in commercial banking, both
Presently, com-
cific area within
$31,000 per year. The range was from
Braddick and Ekern pointed to the di-
mercial banks are
the bank's struc-
$22,500 to $34,500.
versity of the job. Braddick felt lucky
only restricted from issuing U.S. stock
ture will dictate qualifications.
At Chemical Bank, the first three to
to be managing in such a change related
based securities. This allows the com-
The lack of required background
eight months of the training program
environment and was confident in rec-
mercial banking industry significant
skills or orientation leaves opens the
are academically oriented. Horror sto-
ommending commercial banking as a
flexibility as a whole.
question ofthe specific nature of train-
ries of training programs with sixteen
career. As he said, "We're a very vi-
Expansion of commercial banks into
ing programs. Again, training programs
hour workdays of monotonous number
brant business growing fast, and in this
other fincial services has opened a
will be specific to different banks or dif-
crunching were dispelled. Ekern com-
respect, able to challenge anyone." Ek-
broad range of entry level opportunities
ferent sectors within the bank. At Citi-
pared the first part of his program to
em points to the lack of monotony, and
available to Ivy League Students.
bank, each division sets up its own pro-
school, in which hours were dictated by
enjoyment in having a different busi-
Generally, positions include: sales and
gram which may vary from a few
study habits. This initial training stage
ness come across his desk each day.
marketing, computer programing, and
months to two years. Braddick stressed
is followed by a phase working mainly
The one negative feeling he expressed
research and analyst positions. While
the idea of hands on training. He sug-
on transactions. This period of working
about commercial banking was the slow
each of these positions require different
gests the value of such training is, "To
purely as an analyst, which, consists for
process in the day to day making money
abilities, accounting background or
give people a context in which to under-
the most part of financial statement
for the bank. "Commercial banks are
40
Fall 1989
Fall 1989
41
U.S. Influence: The future of the Seychelles
hite beaches, sun, ocean, tropical lushness
the constitution back into force.
W
for tourists, the Seychelles is an island
Still, opposition leaders are encouraged. On April
paradise. But for the some 100,000 citizens
12, Sir James will return to the Seychelles from his
of the archipelago in the Indian Ocean off
exile in Britain to start rebuilding democracy.
the coast of Africa, life has been anything but a tropical
While the plight of the Seychelles is unlikely to keep
idyll these past 15 years. In 1976, the string of 110 small
many Americans awake at night, it is in the interest of
islands gained independence from the British. Just one
the United States to see democracy-restored. A demo-
year later, in June 1977, the country's first democrat-
cratic regime is likely to be more friendly to the West
ically elected president, Sir James Mancham, leader
and to American interests, and, from a strategic stand-
of the Seychelles Democratic Party, was ousted in a
point, the Seychelles are of undeniable importance.
violent coup.
The archipelago covers more than 200,000 square
Since then the Seychelles have been ruled with an
miles of the Indian Ocean, through which tankers car-
iron hand by France-Albert Rene, the Marxist leader
rying oil from the Persian Gulf to the industrialized
of the Seychelles People's Progressive Front, with the
world pass every day. It is no coincidence that since
help of a 3,000-man army. Many of Mr. Rene's political
the decline of the Soviet Union, Iran and India have
opponents have been driven into exile. No dissent is
shown a lot of interest in developing ties with the
tolerated in this one-party state, where the government
Seychelles.
controls the media and informers are everywhere.
For the United States, specifically, at stake is a sat-
aundering money for the Mafia and hosting Soviet
ellite tracking station, dating back to 1963, which mon-
spy operations have been other of Mr. Rene's pursuits.
itors Soviet satellite activity and directs U.S. surveil-
It is no surprise that since Mr. Rene's party took power,
lance satellites over strategic areas, The United States
10 percent of the population has fled.
also has a naval base on the island of Diego Garcia.
Now, however, with many African nations moving
These installations have been allowed to remain under
toward pluralism and democracy, change may be com-
the Marxist regime in return for foreign aid and the
ing to the Seychelles, too. The ruling party's loss of
understanding that the United States would not rock
Soviet sponsorship is one reason. The determined cam-
the boat.
paign waged by the exiled Sir James and other opposi-
But the Cold War is over and with it any compelling
tion politicians via the wonder of the fax is another. So
need to cozy up to the likes of Mr. Rene. Last summer,
effective has the fax campaign been that in 1990 the
members of Congress were pressing the State Depart
police warned that anyone receiving "seditious, sub-
ment to take more interest in encouraging democracy
versive, abusive or obscene" material could be liable
on the islands. And since he arrived in the Seychelles
to criminal prosecution and the confiscation of his
in the fall, the new U.S. ambassador, Richard Carlson,
or-her fax machine.
has been leading an administration effort to press the
In any event, in December last year Mr. Rene ex-
government for pluralism. The December break-
tended an invitation to "all Seychellois currently resid-
through is clear evidence that U.S. nudging is working
ing overseas to return to the Seychelles if they so wish
The assets the United States has in the Seychelles
and participate in the political life of the country in a
would certainly be far more secure under a genuinely
responsible manner," urging them to "forget past divi-
pro-Western democratic government than under one
sions." He has promised a Consitutional Commission
that in effect holds them hostage. The administration
to be elected in July 1992 and parliamentary elections
should continue to let Mr. Rene know that it is no longer
later in the year.
willing to remain indifferent to the people of the Sey-
In fact, the Seychelles already has a perfectly good
chelles and that the United States will be paying close
constitution, one based on British principles of law and
attention to ensure that Mr. Rene makes good on his
representative government. Mr. Rene's party sus-
new promises.
pended it in 1979, and the only action needed is to bring
One of a series on U.S. policy toward unfree countries
WASH TIMES 3/23/92
PERISCOPE
THE GULF
RUSSIA FAX
Fear of Flying
Gorb Sequel?
D
espite Iranian President
M
ikhall Gorbachev may
Hashemi Rafsanjani's re-
be plotting a political
cent efforts to improve rela-
comeback. The former
tions with the West, U.S. intel-
Soviet leader went out of
ligence officials worry that
his way last week to en-
Teheran's rearmament pro-
dorse the economic re-
gram could make it a serious
forms of his rival, Rus-
threat to its gulf neighbors by
sian President Boris
the mid-1990s. Iran has allo-
Yeltsin. But well-placed
cated $10 billion to rebuild its
Russian sources say that
armed forces over the next
Gorbachev is quietly
five years. It is now taking
gathering friends and ad-
delivery of a squadron of
visers at his Moscow
Bush and Quayle at the State of the Union address, author Noonan
MiG-29s purchased from the
tank, the Interna-
former Soviet Union in Sep-
tional Foundation for
THE PRESIDENT
tember 1990. Teheran's main
Social, Economic and Po-
objective, the officials say, is to
litical Research, to de-
Message: I Need Help
redress the military balance
vise alternatives to
with Iraq, whose armored
Yeltsin's game plan. A
tanks still outnumber Iran's
key member of Gorby's
W
ANTED: Speechwriter for
to return to the White House
by three to one. "There is also
team is Aleksandr Yakov-
frequently tongue-tied
full time.
cause for concern that Iran is
lev, the intellectual archi-
president/candidate. Famil-
The president's top advis-
conspiring to build a strategic
tect of perestroika.
iarity with health-care issues,
ers, particularly campaign
strike capability," says a U.S.
Their headquarters: the
economic woes and supermar-
chiefs Bob Teeter and Fred
analyst. It could include nucle-
former Soviet Commu-
ket-checkout counters a plus.
Malek, are now worried that
ar weapons, long-range deliv-
nist Party's social-sci-
George Bush last week put
Bush's re-election effort could
ery systems and missiles.
ences institute.
out a call for new White House
be hampered by his often
wordsmiths. Peggy Noonan, a
uninspired rhetoric. To back
veteran of the 1988 presiden-
up Noonan on everyday ap-
UPDATE
tial race, has agreed to craft
pearances, Bush's men have
the president's remarks for ma-
asked each cabinet department
Looking
jor campaign events. She
for a list of top writing pros-
came on board after stepping in
pects. At least one agency,
for Leaks
at the last minute to rewrite
SO far, has replied that none of
the State of the Union Message.
its writers is good enough.
The Senate may never find
But Noonan, a Reagan
"Help," said one Bush aide.
who leaked Anita Hill'
speechwriter, doesn't want
"We're desperate."
Headed for Iran: MiG-29
charges that she was sexually
harassed by Clarence Thomas
VITAL STATISTICS
CONVENTIONAL WISDOM WATCH
But special counsel Peter
Fleming is casting a wide net it
Fat Cities
'92 Campaign Edition
his search for the tipster. The
reporters who
A
new international survey
T
he conventional wisdom has found its perfect embodi-
broke the
of 12 occupations-blue-
ment: Richard Nixon. Whatever he says on any subject,
story-Nina
collar and white-shows
you can bet it's fairly close to the CW, humor-free division.
Totenberg of
which city's workers earn the
National
most per hour:
PLAYERS
Conventional Wisdom
Public Radio
and Timothy
Average Earnings in:
B. Clinton
USS Frontrunner is taking on water, but
Phelps of
still the biggest ship in the channel.
HOURLY WAGES IN U.S. DOLLARS
Newsday-
Zurich
$16
P. Tsongas
May actually win N.H., setting off after-
have been
Paul free-for-all.
subpoenaed.
Anita Hill
Geneva
$14.5
Luxembourg
$11.4
B. Kerrey
War hero can't even gain when focus is on
They've
draft dodging. Try the Debra Winger card.
agreed to appear but won't
Tokyo
$10.9
name their sources. Fleming
$10.7
T. Harkin
Helinski
Iowa Fave Son more like grouchy
is also questioning leaders 01
grandpa. "New New Deal" is Old Old Spiel.
New York
$10.5
liberal interest groups, inter
J. Brown
Love your threads and that 1-800-No-Bull
viewing Democratic and Re-
Los Angeles
$10.4
gig. Hang in there, babe.
publican staffers and review
Oslo
$10.2
Late Entries
Cuomo, Shlomo, Perot, somebody-the
ing Senate documents, phor
Copenhagen $10.1
draft board is calling.
logs and computer
SOURCE: UNION BANK OF SWITZERLAND
messages.
CLOCKWISE FROM TOP: DOWNING-NEWSWEEK, BARRYTALESNICK-RE
6 NEWSWEEK FEBRUARY 17, 1992
DOD, SCOTT ANDERSEN
RENTA?
TOMORROW
BUSH'S CAMPAIGN TUNEUP
BY KENNETH T. WALSH AND DAVID GERGEN
CHICK HARRITY-USN&WR
END-RUNNING THE PRESS CORPS. Though still sputtering, George Bush's political machine is
gradually gearing up for next year's campaign by trying out new techniques and old themes that are
likely to become the core of the president's strategy. Some Bush political advisers think the most in-
novative change will be a much greater reliance upon local television to reach the voters, bypassing
the media in Washington. Dorrance Smith, until recently the executive producer of ABC's "Nightline,"
joined the White House staff this spring at the personal request of the president, a longtime friend.
Having watched the sharp audience decline of the network news shows, Smith has begun experi-
menting with different formats to get Bush's message out. His first road test was in mobilizing public
Bush fluctuates be-
support in states such as California, Texas and Florida for a congressional vote on trade with Mexico.
tween harsh and soft
Bush and other officials found they could spell out the arguments for trade much more effectively
attacks on Demo-
through satellite conversations with local anchors than in nine-second sound bites on the evening
crats. His recent dia-
news.
tribe against them for
playing racial politics
Though Smith won't speculate on campaign plans, others foresèe Bush sitting down with local news-
and backing quotas
casters for round-table discussions on the road; Local anchors are often unqualifiedly enthusiastic
was a last-minute
about putting the president on the air, and their questions are usually softer than those of the national
outburst.
press corps. The White House is also letting local affiliates and small independent networks cover
Bush with camera crews only, ensuring pretty pictures and avoiding the presence of a hectoring re-
ABC
porter. And in the works are more teleconferences, which allow Bush to deliver an address to and
answer questions from an audience anywhere in the country. In effect, the White House is building its
own sophisticated television production company.
ENVIRONMENTAL PORK BARREL. Another new wrinkle will be an increasing use of environmental
projects to showcase the president. Budget Director Richard Darman has seeded the administra-
tion's latest budget proposal with conservation plums such as new wilderness areas, parks and camp-
grounds. If Congress approves that budget, Bush plans to cut a lot of ribbons next year to open new
Dorrance Smith or
sites, especially in voter-rich and environment conscious California. The administration is proposing,
ganized two telecon
for example, to spend $11.5 million to buy 1,300 acres of virgin land in the Santa Monica Mountains
ferences for Bush last
and $13 million for a 6,000-acre expansion of the Channel Islands National Park off Los Angeles.
week, one on educa-
tion to public broad-
GOOD COP, BAD COP. Prodded by a new chief speech writer, Tony Snow, former editorial-page
casters in Orlando,
editor of the conservative Washington Times, Bush has also begun road-testing more hard-edged
Fla., the other on the
speeches. In a series of graduation addresses, the president has decried hiring quotas, abortion,
economy to ad execu-
political correctness on campus, Lyndon Johnson's Great Society social programs and old court
tives in Nashville.
decisions against school prayer. Accompanying the harsher rhetoric has been a flurry of promises
that he will veto a wide range of bills coming from Congress. Conservative leaders such as Sen.
Phil Gramm of Texas think that if Bush pursues a more confrontational strategy, the GOP could
pick up a number of congressional seats in 1992, especially against Democrats in the South. But
Bush is still wavering on how hard a line to take, in part because some of those themes haven't
had much resonance. Last week, when his supporters were sure Bush would bash Congress in an
evening address at the White House, he backed off. Stung by critics who say the president has
been too cynical and divisive, White House aides are also dancing away from recent attacks on
quotas. On some days, Bush seems to side with Republican "tough guys" - Chief of Staff John Su-
nunu, media adviser Roger Ailes, GOP strategist Charles Black and Georgia Rep. Newt Gingrich; on
New White House
others, he listens to the more soothing voices of strategist Robert Teeter, who is expected to man-
speech writersTon
age the re-election, and Darman.
Snow is helping Bush
sharpen his issue
Never far from campaign plans will be the president's continuing preoccupation with foreign affairs,
differences with
especially East-West relations. That, of course, will be highlighted in his upcoming summit with Soviet
Democrats and pro-
President Mikhail Gorbachev, and Bush plans at least one other summit before the elections. He is
moting the notion
also expected to meet more often with other Soviet leaders, starting with Boris Yeltsin, in the next
that the president is
couple of weeks. Teeter says the campaign will be designed to show how Bush's steadiness and
interested in ideas.
knowledge of foreign affairs are vital because the whole world is realigning. Given current uncertain-
35
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, JUNE 24. 1991
Photocopy-Preservation
EVERY TIME HE APPROACHES A PODIUM, they break into a sweat; every time
PUTTING
he steps off Air Force One into a throng of reporters, they're overcome by that sicken-
ing twinge of dread; every time he gives a speech, fields a question, goes out in public-
every time he opens his mouth and threatens to speak, George Bush's speechwriters
close their eyes and pray to God that he reads his prepared text verbatim, follows the
TelePrompter precisely, and, oh, Lord, please, doesn't ad-lib a single noun, verb, adjec-
tive, or phrase that they know they'll regret later.
WORDS
But he does it anyway.
Just this month, in a speech intended to smooth tensions between Democrats and Re-
publicans battling over the civil rights bill, Bush inserted an off-the-cuff swipe that he'd
heard White House Chief of Staff John Sununu make about the Democrats' so-called
quota bill:
"You can't put a sign on a pig and say it's a horse," Bush exclaimed, earning him ugly
IN
recriminations from civil rights leaders and injuring his chances of reaching a compro-
mise.
Likewise, when a reporter questioned Bush last year, not long after be announced a
tax increase, the president, who was on his morning jog at the time, flippantly brushed
off the question: "Read my hips," he mocked.
And then there are Bush's many ponderous public statements, which often bear little
THE
resemblance to the English language:
"I notice now that some of the critics who were so opposed and using this fantastical-
ly, diabolically, anti-me language, they come up now saying, 'Well, if you get A, B, and
C, then it will be all right or then we'll understand.' Let them just stay tuned in."
"I used to think, 'Damn it, I wanted it to echo
PRESIDENT'S
through history,' says one Bush speechwriter
who's felt the nausea of seeing a speech that one
worked on for weeks-going without sleep, food, or
natural light-haplessly mangled by one of Bush's
cornball asides. "But then 1 grew up a bit." Now,
the speechwriter says, "I wince it up a little bit maybe. But once I get it the best I can, I
MOUTH
sign off."
Not everyone takes it so well. In April, Bush's chief speechwriter, Chriss Winston,
signed off for good. She cited the usual litany of reasons for leaving a government post
"The hours were just too much. I live 30 miles out of town, which means a 45-minute
drive at 11 p.m.," and so on.
Winston wasn't the only scribe to leave. Mark Davis also checked out recently for a
George Bush hates
post as California Gov. Pete Wilson's chief speechwriter. Ed McNally, another Bush
speechwriter, fled as far from the Beltway as he could have without a passport. He's
speechwriters. He kicked them
now the chief prosecutor for the state of Alaska.
Speechwriter to the president. It sounds great at first. Work at the White House. Wear a
out of their posh offices.
cool ID badge. Chat with the president now and then. Chat? Hell, you tell him what to
say. Sounds great, sure, but it doesn't quite turn out that way. Because all told, writing
Snatched away their White
speeches for the president is quite simply a lousy job. The hours are miserable, the pay
mediocre. Officially confined to the dark corner of anonymity, speechwriters receive lit-
House mess
BY AILEEN
the or no public recognition for their work; that goes to the president and to the policy
wonks who run roughshod over the speeches, torturing phrases, convoluting sentences,
passes. Keeps
HEFFERREN
and taking grammar hostage.
Photographs by
The sometimes fierce competition among speechwriters for recognition and praise fos-
them locked
Darrow Montgomery H
ters enmity in the ranks. And while speechwriters for Ronald Reagan could at least take
solace in a few measly prestige perks, upon taking office Bush stripped his speechwri-
away from the public. Is it any
ters of their ragged epaulets and shunted them off to the far barracks of the White
House. Unlike his predecessor, who wanted speechwriters to preach the gospel of Rea-
wonder that the Wimp's words
ganism, Bush watered down his own speechwriting department with uninspired left-
overs from other departments and made them answer to White House policy geeks. It's
slip his lips with all the elegance
no wonder Bush's speeches are so lame. He did everything he could to make sure they
would be. So who could blame Winston, Davis, or McNally if they went packing simply
of a fur ball from a cat's throat?
because they couldn't take it anymore?
Into the gap left by the departing Winston stepped 36-year-old Tony Snow, editorial
Incoming Bushspeak director
page editor of the Washington Times and regular gum-flapper on Fox Television's Mc-
Laughlin Group rip-off, Off the Record. Snow's job is to clean up Bush's speechwriting
mess. With the serious Democrat-bashing of the 1992 presidential race only months
Tony Snow has accepted the
away, Bush wanted a wordsmith who could provide him with the rhetorical armor he'
need to keep his pits dry in debates against such fierce potential Democratic challengers
assignment to help the prez make
as Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin, Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton, and, yes, maybe even New York
Gov. Mario Cuomo. Snow has already jostled Bush's speeches with a few jolts of rheto-
peace with the English language.
ric. But if he's to turn Bush into any kind of orator at all, the president's entire
24
JUNE 199/CITY PAPER
Hendrik
Hertzberg,
shaper of
Cartertalk
speechwriting operation will need electro-
13-, 14-hour days," but because he no longer
were custodians of Reagan's message. It was
talk about how Reagan's speechwriters were
shock.
faces the grueling deadlines of daily journal-
like being dropped in the jungle and told to
"out of control," and that rather than put-
ism, "The hours don't beat me up.
fight our way out."
ting the president first they were "advancing
1 first it's thrilling to write something
But even if the hours don't beat you up,
Bush's speechwriters reflect their boss'
their own agendas." No one batted an eye
A
and see it in the paper the next day,
your colleagues might. In a job where recog-
more pragmatic (some say indecisive) ap-
when Ken Bakshian used to hang out at the
says Ben Wattenberg, the eternally op-
nition is scarce, rivalry among
proach toward politics. They share a certain
National Press Club after work. But one
timistic newspaper columnist and American
speechwriters for credit and position-in-the
Republican centrism with an occasional
Bush speechwriter says that early on Bush's
Enterprise Institute policy analyst who
White House hierarchy is tense. But Bush's
hard-right hook; but they aren't all blind
staff was warned, bluntly: "If you talk to a
wrote speeches for Lyndon Johnson in the
spcechwriters-don't-talk-aboutintraoffice
Bush-loyalists.
reporter, fine, but tell Governor Sununu
'60s: Until, he says, "you realize it is impor-
squabbles. Most scramble for the protective
"There are issues (on which] I completely
about
tant not because you wrote "but because he
shelter of-background to cover their tracks.
disagree [with the administration]," confides
Bush diminished the influence of his own
said Then the thrill begins to wear off
Reagan's speechwriting team, on the other
one Bush speechwriter. "Does this mean-
speechwriters to "put the rhetoric machine
and you realize that you want "to write
hand, had more internal rifts than the PLO
we prostituting ourselves? No, don't
in its place."
of your even if it's not on
has factions, and the former president's
think so.' Sometimes, this speechwriter
To begin with, the president filled his
the Iront page of the New York Times.
speechwriters felt no need to muffle their
says, "I write as though it's almost fiction."
speechwriting department with seasoned
Sometimes you worked
venomous feelings for former colleagues.
Pause. Fiction in the sense of "created
scribes gathered from various Cabinet secre-
seven days a week and you felt you were the
In a recent interview, one Reagan speech-
words," the speechwriter qualifies.
taries in the Reagan administration who
most important person in the world," Wat-
writer who asked that his name be withheld
If Bush had made fealty to the "vision
were not particularly well-known for memo-
tenberg says."Other times you felt like the
labeled a colleague "a drunk" and "a fail-
thing" a litmus test for speechwriters, Tony
rable oratory. Before being tapped by Bush,
janitor was doing than you."
ure." In the pages of the National Review,
Snow's resumé wouldn't have made it past
for example, Curt Smith worked for eight
A-Bush speechwriter concurs. "I've gone
Ken Bakshian ripped into fellow speechwrit-
Sununu's desk. As an editorial writer at the
years as a speechwriter for HUD's former
throughrsix-[and]-five-day periods where I
er Peggy Noonan for taking bows in public,
Washington Times, Snow was openly critical
secretary, "Silent" Sam Pierce. Mark Davis
sleep four hours a night. I don't want to
calling her a "prima donna."
of the Bush administration.
for former Republican National Committee
make it out to be this great martyrdom, but
Reagan speechwriters also leaked early
"George Bush and his people came to
head Frank Fahrenkopf Jr.; Dan McGroarty
we do eat a lot of Domino's.'
drafts of one another's speeches to the press
Washington untarnished by dreaminess,"
for Secretaries of Defense Caspar Weinberg
Clark Judge, who as a speechwriter under.
and were known for taking authorship credit
Snow wrote in the Times. "They skipped the
and Frank Carlucci; Mark Lange for Labor
Reagan pulled his share of all-nighters, says
for fellow workers' words.
idealistic phase and jumped directly into an
Secretary Ann cLaughlin and Transporta-
he saw his fiancé only when she brought him
One of the "filched credits" Bakshian
Imperial Presidency. There, gatekeepers
tion Secretary Elizabeth Dole.
dinner at the office. "It got to the point," he
mentions is the "Everyday American Hero"
control access to the leader of the Free
He also relocated the speechwriters' of-
says, "where the Secret Service guard didn't
theme of Reagan's 1982 State of the Union.
World. They seal off leaks and fresh air.
fices. Reagan's team was comfortably en-
check what was in the bag."
Bakshian says he came up with the phrase,
And in the president's case, they have creat-
sconced in the southeast corner of the grand
And yet, a life of Domino's, missed din-
but says that it was credited, by a false leak,
ed sort of a yuppie regency, complete with a
Old Executive Office Building, coveted by
ners, and 12-hour days is "almost a vacation
to another speechwriter in William Safire's
vigorous, intelligent, decent, and utterly re-
GS-15s everywhere for the view of the White
compared to the campaign," says Bush re-
New York Times column.
moved head of state."
House. When Bush took office, he relegated
searcher Bob Simon. "We're down from 80-
The zealousness of Reagan's speechwriting
speechwriters to the 17th-Street "ghetto"
hour weeks to 55 hours." And almost no
team came in part from their sense that they
f Bush doesn't require his speechwriters
side of the building. where they toil in ob-
weekends. "The president gets his work
had a mission, that they were running with
to be steadfastly loyal to his politics, he
scurity and shame. (Gregg Petersmeyer-
done on the weekdays, we should be able to,
the red-hot burning torch of Reaganism.
does require them to do one thing: keep
now champion of Bush's Thousand Points
too," Simon states matter-of-factly.
"For me it was wonderful,' says Judge.
quiet One Bush speechwriter says that
of Light" program-used campaign ties to
Tony Snow says he regularly works "12-,
"When I was on the president's staff we
within the is frequent
snag the speechwriters' old turf, says Bob
CITY PAPERJUNE 1991 25
PUTTING WORDS IN THE PRESIDENT'S MOUTH
Simon.)
gave George Washington's farewell address
fornia Rep. Dana Rohrabacher and John
comment live after Bush gave his first-100-
Bush also revoked the speechwriters'
the once-over, and Daniel Webster begged
Podhoretz (Reagan); and Patrick Buchannan
days-in-office speech at the American News-
prized White House mess privileges. No
incoming President William Henry Harrison
(Nixon and Reagan).
paper Publishers Association Meeting in
longer could the lowly scribes lunch among
to trim his inaugural address (to no avail:
It was under Nixon-a man with a "good
Chicago. "I had the text of Bush's speech
the powerful in the dining room where the
Harrison delivered a two-hour speech-re-
feel for the language" and "respect for the
and read-along while Bush gave it." says
president treads the Oval Office carpet one
plete with references to the Romans-on a
written word," says New York Times column-
Hess. "It was a perfectly good speech, but
floor up. For status-conscious speechwriters,
frigid afternoon, and died of pneumonia
ist William Safire, himself a Nixon speech-
not when Bush finished with it." At the end
access to the mess was a major, ego-mollify-
within the month). It wasn't until Warren
writer-that the speechwriting department
of each paragraph, Bush had explained-what
ing perk: "It's one of the first things people
Harding dubbed Judson Welliver "literary
came into its own.
the was about; what-it was supposed
ask when they find out you work at the
executive secretary" that the modern era of
"This was the heyday of presidential writ-
to mean, thereby "wrecking any cadence
White House," laments Simon.
presidential speechwriting arrived.
ing," says Safire, praise that, in his eyes,
and lilt the speech might have had."
Even if Bush was trying to make a point,
But as late as the Eisenhower administra-
only Franklin Roosevelt's administration
Snow blames the speechwriters: "They
why did he so dramatically belittle the peo-
tion, speechwriters were still as much policy
shares. Though Safire left before the Water-
may be trying to write for Winston Church-
ple who put words in his mouth? Steve
advisers as wordsmiths. "Over time," says
gate mess, it was the speechwriters of his
ill, not George Bush." While Carter and
Hess, a speechwriter for Dwight Eisenhow-
Hess, "speechwriters were called upon to
school who almost managed to transform
Reagan actually spoke in sentences, "Bush
er, suggests it's because they put words in his
write more and more speeches not to ad-
Nixon's last pathetic days into a noble strug-
speaks in three- to five-second bursts with
mouth. "I almost think [Bush] is embar-
vise the president."
gle:
lots of breathing spaces," Snow says. "If you
rassed that someone composed a speech for
Then, as the media age dawned in the
"Sometimes I have succeeded and some-
don't insert them, he will."
him," says Hess, venturing to psychoanalyze
'50s, the president was called upon to make
times I have failed," waxed Nixon in his
But Hendrik Hertzberg, chief speechwriter
the orator in chief. In his speeches, Hess
frequent public appearances. The collected
farewell address, "but always I have taken
under Jimmy Carter and now editor of the
says, Bush "has an almost apologetic tone."
public statements of the presidents, which
heart from what Theodore Roosevelt once
New Republic, offers a different explanation.
Upset as they might have been about their
are bound in volumes in the Library of Con-
said about the man in the arena, "whose face
"Like Carter before him," says Hertzberg,
diminished status, Bush's speechwriting
gress, gauge the geometric progression of
is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who
"Bush believes that his real job is making
crew still chafed at the early news stories in
presidential elocution. The statements of the
strives valiantly, who errs and comes short
decisions," not making speeches. This isn't
the New York Times that detailed their dis-
first 24 U.S. presidents fit neatly into 10
again and again because there is no effort
entirely problematic-it might even be re-
content. The speechwriters blamed overeag-
flaking volumes. The recorded public wis-
without error and shortcoming. if he fails,
freshing to have a president who doesn't use
er reporters for the minor fracas it stirred in
dom of Lyndon Johnson's first year in office
at least fails while daring greatly.
the presidency as a rehearsal for the lecture
the White House
alone takes up two volumes and totals nearly
circuit. According to Hertzberg, Bush's ora-
"The first six months were a horror be-
1,700 pages. In 1976, Gerald Ford was the
cause there were only four of us," recalls one
G
eorge Bush couldn't muster that kind
torical problem is that he lacks "a set of
first to set the three-volume record for a sin-
of elegance even while telling the
clearly defined bedrock beliefs that you
Bush speechwriter, "and there were $0 many
gle year, with almost 3,000 pages.
truth. It just isn't in him. Safire says
could fall back on rhetorically."
events piled on. We weren't returning re-)
With the speech explosion came, inevita-
that on his scale of presidential eloquence,
And even if a sterling speech could some-
porters' phone calls, and they got mad.
bly, the speechwriters explosion. Eisenhow-
Reagan's speeches rate an "average" and
how emerge from a deliberately uninspired,
They assumed that either we were aloof or
er managed with two. Bush has six (with
Bush's "a little below average-a little high-
unmotivated team of
bureaucratic stooges The story became
two more on the way, according to Snow).
er than Carter's." Though Bush may have
under the command of
the downgrading issue."
The speechwriters have even established
what Reagan speechwriter Tony Dolan de-
-rudderless president, before it ever made it
their own fraternity, named (appropriately
scribes as a "craggy handsome face, a nice
to Bush's craggy, handsome face and out his
S
eventy years ago, when politicians
enough) the Judson Welliver Society: The
reedy voice, appealing Upper New England
cracking, quivering lips it would have been
were still elected without throngs of
list of members reads like a Who's Who in
Yankee manner," those aren't enough to
wrecked by the bewildering bureaucratic
media consultants, pollsters, and
Washington politics and journalism. To
overcome his uncomely traits: "A rambler
gauntlet through which nearly every presi-
flacks, presidents actually wrote their own
name a few: Clark Clifford (Harry Truman);
and a digresser," another Reagan speech-
dential speech must run.
speeches. They would tap a close friend or
Ted Sorenson (John F. Kennedy); Bill Moy-
writer calls Bush.
Typically, an early draft of an important
trusted adviser for advice. Thomas Jefferson
ers and Jack Valenti (Lyndon Johnson); Cali-
In 1989, Hess was asked by C-SPAN to
policy speech is "staffed" out to the 14 assis-
PUTTING WORDS IN THE PRESIDENT'S MOUTH
tants to the president, relevant Cabinet
though, is when some junior policy staffer
make it look like he does. He won't be able
to be "in a unique position" in that he is
members, and other administration bureau-
tries to make himself look good by withhold-
to turn Bush into Churchill, but already
"under no orders to accept changes." Snow
crats with a hand in the pot. At least 15 peo-
ing paragraphs from an early draft of a
there have been some noticeable changes in
makes the decision to clear the final draft.
ple will look over a relatively unimportant
speech and then leaking the draft to the
the president's oratory.
This has caused some grumbling among
speech-what Hertzberg refers to as "Rose
press. After the speech is made, the policy
In an emotional address in South Carolina
the policy grunts. The Michigan speech was
Garden rubbish"-and up to 50 will see
jock gets credit for the additions. The
after the Gulf War, Bush exclaimed, with
heavily worked over in the staffing process,
something as important as a State of the
speechwriter looks like an idiot in the office
unusual vigor, "By God, we have licked the
Snow says. "People were concerned about
Union.
the next day, when the paper reports that
Vietnam syndrome."
the PC bit," but it staved because Snow had
"If it's [a speech for] the U.S. Open," says
"Such and such policy was not included in
Bush's much lauded commencement
locked Bush in on the idea during a meeting
Snow, pointing to a draft of the speech he is
earlier drafts."
address earlier this month at the Univer-
before a first draft of the speech was even
working on, "most are not too concerned. If
Winston says that at times the speechwrit-
sity of Michigan is widely considered to
begun. "I told him about the "Michigan
it's a commencement address, then they
ers and policy-makers are still battling it out
be Snow's major debut as a speechwriter.
Mandate' [a controversial speech code put
care."
"right there on the plane, sometimes in a
Bush launched into a fiery attack on the
into effect by university officials to curtail
Each of the policy analysts, advisers, legal
huddle" to bring it up to date. (References
evils of "political correctness" on cam-
'hate' speech], and he agreed that he should
"experts," and Cabinet members takes a
to the Bangladesh disaster were inserted in a
pus:
talk about it."
turn knifing the draft, imbuing it with his
recent speech while the president was in the
"Ironically, on the 200th anniversary of
The Ann Arbor speech may have marked
own personal charm,
air, for example.)
our Bill of Rights, we find free speech under
Snow's debut, but perhaps the most surpris-
The results-are disastrous. "Rhetoric be-
"I remember a State of the Union I was
assault throughout the Unites States, includ-
ing single example of the difference between
comes the reason, people focus on it," la-
writing," says Hess. In the final stages of the
ing on some college campuses," Bush said.
the rhetoric of pre- and post-Snow Bush is
ments a Bush speechwriter, "and some
writing, "calls were coming through the
"The notion of 'political correctness' has ig-
his now famous speech two weeks ago be-
beautiful prose is almost rendered oatmeal
switchboard until 2 in the morning from
nited controversy across the land. Although
fore the National Southern Baptist Conven-
because so many people have whacked at it
Cabinet officers" with changes. Ultimately
the movement arises from the laudable de-
tion, in which Bush, who normally shies
(The only-speeches that go directly-from
that particular State of the Union went back
sire to sweep away the debris of racism and
away from emotional displays, brought the
the-scribes-to-the-president are humorous
to Eisenhower-a heavy-handed editor and
hatred, it replaces old prejudices with new
house down with his sticky-sweet admission
ones. The speechwriters bring in four or five
himself a speechwriter for General Mac-
ones. It declares certain topics off-limits,
that he cried on the night the air war in the
of their funniest friends, sit around and
Arthur-some 13 times. But even back in
certain expressions off-limits, even certain
Gulf began.
make up jokes, and then pass on pages and
Eisenhower's day, Hess says, "the lawyers
gestures off-limits."
[w]e were thinking about the those
pages of yuks to the president for review.
were most interested in qualifying each
And last week Bush pounded the lectern
young men and women overseas," Bush
Snow says that his department maintains a.
word."
with his fist in another strident civil rights
said. "And I had the tears start down the
"joke file," and sometimes contracts-out to
But unlike Eisenhower, Bush finds that
speech at the Capitol Hill Hyatt Regency.
cheeks, and our minister smiled back. And I
free-lance comics.)
formulating and articulating coherent ideas
"I want a fair, strong anti-discrimination
no longer worried how it looked to others."
"The most difficult speeches," says a Bush
just aren't his thing, as it were.
bill that will guarantee worker's rights,
With that, the president began to cry
speechwriter, "tend to be those [where]
"Truth be told," says Simon, acknowledg-
women's rights, workplace rights, but will
again.
there's an internal schism about-the policy."
ing people in the audience "is the most im-
not create quotas!"
And with that, Bush showed that speech-
The speechwriter uses-an example to de-
portant thing to the president. He gets pret-
Bush's enhanced rhetoric may be due in
writer magic can only go so far. Snow can
scribe the "internecine warfare" between
ty upset if we miss someone." Which means
part to the enhanced power Snow has been
make Bush's lips utter word formations far
speechwriters and White House staff. Mid-
that Bush's researchers spend a lot of time
granted. He meets with Bush twice a week
more eloquent, funny, biting, and witty than
level bureaucrats have become adept at us-
figuring out who'll be sitting in the front row
to discuss things like speech strategy and
the president ever could muster on his own.
ing the speech-drafting process as a way to
and how to pronounce their names.
tone, and the importance of sticking to the
He can instruct him when to pound his fist.
sneak ideas to superiors without risking
text.
when to raise his voice, when to pause. But
looking foolish. If the idea is a loser, it sim-
ply gets crossed off the speech by the boss.
E
ven if Bush doesn't recognize the dif-
And while Snow's predecessor Winston
two weeks ago, the president of the United
ference between, say, burning rhetoric
says she had to work in the ham-handed
States cried on every television set in Ameri-
What really burns the speechwriters,
and subtle irony, Tony Snow is out to
changes of the policy-makers, Snow claims
ca. How can a speechwriter top that?
CP
MARKETING IDEAS
HOLDING THE BAG ON BANKS
National
Journal
THE WEEKLY ON POLITICS AND GOVERNMENT
JUNE 22, 1991/NO. 25
Pinching
Public
the
Purse
INSURANCE
The squeeze
on state
and
local
governments
is likely to continue
for years
WHITE HOUSE NOTEBOOK
WITH NEW WHITE HOUSE WORDSMITHS
S
keletons of grandstands were still in
Bush, often clumsy with language, "wise-
accomplishments to the public, Sununu
place along Constitution Avenue,
ly" refrained from trying to rival Reagan
acknowledged to a CNN interviewer on
left from the celebration four days
as a Great Communicator. More impor-
June 13. "If it is our fault, we want to pick
before of President Bush's geopolitical
tant than oratorical flourishes, Windt
up the slack."
triumph in Kuwait, when throngs of lis-
explained, is the ability to persuade,
They've done so this spring in two
teners came to the South Lawn of the
which Bush displayed during the Persian
ways. Counseled by Republican strate-
White House on the evening of June 12
Gulf war. Rhetoric, he judged, "is not
gists that the White House needed a spir-
to glorify Bush's policy endeavors at
central to George Bush's style of leader-
ited chief speechwriter, Sununu found
home.
ship."
one in Tony Snow, 36, editor of The
Bush's remarks were earnestly deliv-
But with an election around the corner,
Washington Times's ideologically ardent
ered and not uninteresting. He chided
pressure is building on Bush to heat up
editorial page. The White House also
Congress for failing to enact his crime
his rhetoric. On top of long-standing
hired Dorrance Smith, 40, a respected
and transportation bills within the 100
laments about Bush's speech making,
ABC News producer who's a Bush family
days he'd prescribed in the wake of the
which crescendoed last fall after his tepid
friend, as assistant to the President for
Persian Gulf war. He also explicitly dis-
prime-time speech on behalf of his bud-
media affairs. Adding Smith to the three-
tanced himself from his predecessor and
get deal, Cabinet officials have com-
some already overseeing White House
political mentor.
plained internally that the White House
message-making (communications direc-
In sketching his philosophy for facing
hasn't made the best political use of
tor David F. Demarest Jr., press secretary
American social problems, Bush spurned
Administration achievements.
Marlin Fitzwater and events-planner Sig
not only the traditionally Democratic
Political sharpies wax nostalgic for
Rogich) was believed to have been Bush's
view that "bigger government was better
1988, when Bush's caustic attacks on his
idea and was counted as evidence of his
government" but also the faith in "the
Democratic opponent on politically vol-
displeasure with the status quo.
genius of the free market" shown by Pres-
canic subjects (such as prison furloughs
A sharper edge has already emerged in
ident Reagan. The latter brought "a
and the Pledge of Allegiance) were
Bush's speeches. In contrast with his
decade of exceptional economic growth,"
deemed pivotal to his electoral success.
bland commencement addresses of prior
Bush said. "And yet, let's face it, many of
Recent talk around Washington is
that years, those he delivered this spring
our streets are still not safe, our schools
Bush will run for reelection next year on a
touched on some hot topics-notably, job
have lost their edge and millions-mil-
platform of "Kuwait, quotas and
quotas and "political correctness"-and
lions-still trudge the path of poverty.
crime"-reminiscent of Dwight D. Eisen-
drew considerable public attention.
There is more to be done, and the mar-
hower's 1952 campaign cry of "Commu-
"Important and contentious issues
ketplace alone can't solve all our prob-
nism, corruption and Korea."
always have some political punch to
lems."
The White House seems to be moving
them," Snow said in an interview.
But what more is to be done, Bush
that way. "I think there's been a lack of
Snow plays down his ideological zeal in
never said. His speech seemed to fall flat.
communications" in conveying Bush's
a White House that's run by a President
A Bush friend scoffed that it might have
been written for President Ford, a known
ideological nebbish. It offered no propos-
als to counter recent Democratic attacks
on the gaps in his domestic agenda, espe-
cially on health care. The handpicked
audience, packed with people Bush had
previously addressed or somehow hon-
ored, was only occasionally moved to
applaud.
The prime-time but newsless event
drew no live television coverage. John H.
Sununu, Bush's chief of staff, told an
ABC News interviewer on June 16 that
the White House "deliberately" hadn't
asked the networks to carry it, presum-
ably for fear of being refused. But a
senior Bush aide confessed surprise that
Cable News Network, which usually isn't
so choosy, joined in the benign neglect.
Bush isn't ordinarily as bad as adver-
tised in getting his points across to the
public. His rhetoric isn't inspiring, but its
style "works for him," said Theodore O.
Windt, a University of Pittsburgh expert
in presidential rhetoric. He thinks that
1578 NATIONAL JOURNAL 6/22/91
BURT SOLOMON
WATCH FOR TOUGHER-TALKING BUSH
devoted to pragmatism. "I'm not a
Bush ad-libbed amid Snow-written
look" at Bush's schedule, a participant
screamer." he said. But Snow hopes to
remarks in accusing his opponents on
said, and consider which themes should
pursue "an activist conservative agenda,"
civil rights of "want[ing] to grind me into
be pursued at which events.
reports an empathetic Administration
the political dirt"-a statement that trou-
So far, this gaggle of communicators
colleague who figures speechwriters'
bled even some Bush supporters.
seem to be working smoothly. They speak
importance in the White House will
If Snow's selection was to remedy the
highly of each other to outsiders. It helps,
rise-though not as high as in Reagan's
absence of poetry, former Nightline pro-
officials say, that Smith seems laid-back
day.
ducer Smith's was intended to bolster the
and unassuming-"a real pro," Rogich
Unlike his predecessor. Chriss Win-
prosaic side of White House outreach.
said, with "a nice, easy working manner."
ston. who was mainly an editor, Snow
Smith, considered on the ascendancy, was
Demarest and Smith worked closely on
writes one or two speeches a week and is
given a few specific tasks that no one had
Bush's South Lawn speech, which Dema-
more heavily involved in rewriting the
much attended to. He is to raise Bush's
rest wrote, and share the task of flogging
rest. He is said to carry more weight in
profile in the press beyond the Capital
domestic issues. (Sununu assigned Smith
inner councils and has helped shape the
Beltway-a "fertile" field with a cam-
to handle the campaign for a "fast track"
subject matter of speeches. White House
paign coming, a longtime Bush aide
toward foreign trade with Mexico, while
aides say it was Snow's idea for Bush to
noted. He recently arranged for Bush to
Demarest did the one on education.) On
lambaste campus intolerance of offensive
address a couple of geographically distant
a given project, Demarest, Smith and
speech-a conservative bugaboo-to
but politically friendly audiences by
Rogich may consult 10 times a day, a
University of Michigan graduates last
means of satellite TV. " He has met with
well-placed official said.
month. Such a speech "wouldn't have
Cabinet public affairs directors who'd
But in a White House proud of its col-
come out of the White House speech-
long felt ignored by the White House,
legiality, this job-sharing carries risks. The
writing shop in 1989 or 1990," said
intending to orchestrate Administration-
communications workload is "not quite a
Republican consultant John Buckley,
wide follow-through on whatever word
zero-sum game, but it's pretty damn
who's pleased to see Bush "willing to use
the White House wants out.
close," an official who shoulders some of
rhetoric" to move public opinion.
"With the right [communications]
it said. Smith isn't likely to prove a rival to
How far Bush will go isn't clear.
strategy, you can really create a mountain
Fitzwater, who has a well-defined turf-
"George Bush is not a firebrand, so you
out of what appears to be a molehill."
the White House press-and generous
are not going to get barn-burner speech-
said an official who expects Smith to "fill
access to Bush. But insiders suspect he
es." Snow said. "Nobody will confuse him
a gap" as a strategic thinker on the White
for Jesse Jackson
may collide with Demarest, who gave up
That's not his per-
House staff. Roughly once a week since
a seventh of his staff to Smith, or with
sonality." But Bush's screechiest rhetoric
Smith's arrival, Sununu has chaired a
Rogich.
lately was his own doing. Addressing the
series of communications planning meet-
Divvying up communications duties
National Federation of Independent
ings in his office. For an hour or so, Sunu-
among a batch of equals poses a risk to
Business in Washington early this month.
nu and seven senior aides take "a rolling
Bush beyond tension on his staff: Dif-
fused authority may also muddy the mes-
sage-making. There's evidently "no cap-
tain" on Bush's communications staff to
supply a clear direction, a Bush friend
said. "I get the impression that people are
going off in different directions."
But too sharp a message also carries
political risks. For one thing, "a President
runs a different kind of campaign than a
candidate for President runs," Buckley
mused. Should Bush revert to his 1988
tone, he may find it hard to switch back.
as he did so abruptly on the night of his
election.
And unlike Reagan. Bush has found
his political strength as President in unify-
ing the electorate, not in dividing it. "This
isn't a polarizing President." American
Enterprise Institute for Public Policy
Research polling expert Karlyn H. Keene
noted, citing pollster Richard B. Wirth-
lin's recent finding that the "gender gap"
that has long plagued Republicans has
markedly shrunk. The more Bush tries to
sharpen his message. that is, the more he
may jeopardize his political standing.
NATIONAL JOURNAL 6/22/91 1579
2 April 2, 1992 New York Time
A23
Essay
WILLIAM SAFIRE
Bush-Clinton Debate
WASHINGTON
Nixonian "Who lost Russia?" charge.
e
t
President Bush and his likely Dem-
Result: a tortured call to act re-
ocratic challenger went back-to-back
sponsibly but not to worry, it won't
1
on CNN yesterday, and Gov. Bill Clin-
cost much.
ton came out standing a little taller.
Because this was the first time the
Twenty minutes before a long-
two men had interacted on television,
scheduled foreign policy address by
it's illuminating to compare their
Governor Clinton, the President
speeches and delivery.
rushed on the air to pre-empt his
1. Substance of the proposal to help
rival's call for aid to the republics of
the broken-up union: Remarkably
the former Soviet Union.
alike in shape, though the Bush pack-
"This isn't driven by election-year
age seems more generous in dollars.
pressures," Mr. Bush felt the need to
Both want a capitalist corps, under
different names. Upshot: a draw.
explain, after his 1,400-word, hastily
2. Persuasive rhetoric: Clinton elo-
slapped together and ill-rehearsed
speech in the guise of a statement to a
quently made the case for helping the
news conference. Nobody watching
Russians, Ukrainians and the rest;
Bush didn't even try.
his unseemly race against the opposi-
Clinton saw the assistance "not as
tion's deadline believed that.
a bailout but as a bridge loan, much
As if it gave him pain to read the
as a family gets from the bank when
words, the President announced "a
it's buying a new house before selling
substantial multilateral financial as-
an old one." That's an oratorical de-
sistance package to marshal
vice used by Lincoln (comparing
:
roughly $18 billion in financial
slavery to a snake in the bed with
1
support." He followed this grand ges-
f
children) and F.D.R. (comparing
ture with an apologetic "There's not a
lend-lease to handing a neighbor your
lot of new money," Mr. Bush's own
garden hose to put out a fire). A
y
version of "I didn't inhale."
viewer could relate to Clinton's home-
e
Cut to Clinton on TV, who knew how
ly metaphor much more easily than
1-
to take advantage of White House
to the stiff Bush bureaucratese about
d
a "comprehensive and integrated
package of support."
Challenger wins
3. Evocation of past leaders: Bush
h
plodded along with "It was my privi-
first round.
lege to work with Ronald Reagan on
these broad programs. Clinton
S.
subtly recalled the Kennedy inaugu-
ral with "America's challenge in this
era is not to bear every burden, but to
d
all
panic. "Now, prodded by Democrats
tip the balance." And he threw in a
in Congress, rebuked by Richard Nix-
pointed phrase that should become
L
on and realizing that I have been
part of his stump speech, deriding
an
ot
raising this issue in the campaign
Bush's "prudence without purpose."
nd
since December, the President is fi-
4. Focus: The President dealt with
nally, even now as we meet here,
one subject and could lay out the
id
putting forward a plan of assistance.
specifics of action taken; this had an
ur
He delivered the coup with zest:
advantage over Clinton, who had to
ir-
"I'd really like it if I could have as
roam over a range of subjects. The
1e
much influence on his domestic poli-
challenger's worst idea: sending the
re
cy."
President to Brazil's global-warming
Zest was what the President
orgy in June. The irony is that Bush
se
so
lacked, because he was being pulled
may feel forced by Clinton to go.
Ip
in two directions at the same time.
5. Delivery: Clinton's voice was
n
His political instinct told him to shy
hoarse from campaigning and Bush's
away from new foreign aid in an
was not. But Clinton's attitude was
of
election year, lest the America-First-
assertive while Bush's was defen-
t
ers punish him; besides, he still holds
sive; the challenger looked up while
?
it against Yeltsin for toppling Gorba-
Bush looked down; and Clinton
chev and breaking up that old Soviet
looked as though he was enjoying his
e
gang of mine.
speech, crafting it until the last min-
1
However, Mr. Bush's Presidential
ute, while the President seemed irri-
instinct told him to step up to the
tated about having to read the com-
urgent needs of the embryonic
plicated mess just handed to him.
democracies; not only would this
Round One: The challenger. But
save the U.S. money in the long
it's a long bout, and the champ has
run, but it would relieve him of the
been in this ring before.
2 April 2, 1992 New York Time
A23
Essay
WILLIAM SAFIRE
Bush-Clinton Debate
e
WASHINGTON
Nixonian "Who lost Russia?" charge.
1
President Bush and his likely Dem-
Result: a tortured call to act re-
ocratic challenger went back-to-back
sponsibly - but not to worry, it won't
on CNN yesterday, and Gov. Bill Clin-
cost much.
ton came out standing a little taller.
Because this was the first time the
Twenty minutes before a long-
two men had interacted on television,
scheduled foreign policy address by
it's illuminating to compare their
Governor Clinton, the President
speeches and delivery.
rushed on the air to pre-empt his
Substance of the proposal to help
rival's call for aid to the republics of
the broken-up union: Remarkably
the former Soviet Union.
alike in shape, though the Bush pack-
"This isn't driven by election-year
age seems more generous in dollars.
pressures," Mr. Bush felt the need to
Both want a capitalist corps, under
explain, after his 400-word, hastily
different names. Upshot: a draw.
slapped together and ill-rehearsed
2. Persuasive rhetoric: Clinton elo-
speech in the guise of a statement to a
quently made the case for helping the
news conference. Nobody watching
Russians, Ukrainians and the rest;
his unseemly race against the opposi-
Bush didn't even try.
tion's deadline believed that.
Clinton saw the assistance "not as
As if it gave him pain to read the
a bailout but as a bridge loan, much
words, the President announced "a
as a family gets from the bank when
substantial multilateral financial as-
it's buying a new house before selling
an old one." That's an oratorical de-
sistance package to marshal
:
roughly $18 billion in financial
vice used by Lincoln (comparing
1
support." He followed this grand ges-
slavery to a snake in the bed with 1
f
ture with an apologetic There's not a
children) and F.D.R. (comparing 1
lot of new. money," Mr. Bush's own
lend-lease to handing a neighbor your a
y
version of "I didn't inhale."
garden hose to put out a fire). A 3
e
viewer could relate to Clinton's home- )
Cut to Clinton on TV, who knew how
1-
to take advantage of White House
ly metaphor much more easily than
d
to the stiff Bush bureaucratese about
is
a comprehensive and integrated
package of support."
?
1,
Challenger wins
Evocation of past leaders: Bush
A
h
plodded along with "It was my privi-
first round.
lege to work with Ronald Reagan on
3.
these broad programs. Clinton
subtly recalled the Kennedy inaugu-
ral with "America's challenge in this
d
era is not to bear every burden, but to
all
panic "Now, prodded by Democrats
tip the balance." And he threw in a A
i
in Congress, rebuked by Richard Nix-
pointed phrase that should become
in
on and realizing that I have been
part of his stump speech, deriding
T
ot
raising this issue in the campaign
Bush's prudence without purpose.
ad
since December, the President is fi-
4. Focus: The President dealt with
id
nally, even now as we meet here,
one subject and could lay out the
ur
putting forward a plan of assistance.
specifics of action taken; this had àn
He delivered the coup with zest:
advantage over Clinton, who had to
e
"I'd really like it if I could have as
roam over a range of subjects. The
much influence on his domestic poli-
challenger's worst idea: sending the
re
cy."
President to Brazil's global-warming
se
Zest was what the President
orgy in June. The irony is that Bush
30
lacked, because he was being pulled
may feel forced by Clinton to go.
Ip
in two directions at the same time.
5. Delivery: Clinton's voice was
n
His political instinct told him to shy
hoarse from campaigning and Bush's
P
of
away from new foreign aid in an
was not. But Clinton's attitude was
election year, lest the America-First-
assertive while Bush's was defen-
t
ers punish him; besides, he still holds
sive; the challenger looked up while
?
it against Yeltsin for toppling Gorba-
Bush looked down; and Clinton
e
chev and breaking up that old Soviet
looked as though he was enjoying his
i
gang of mine.
speech, crafting it until the last min-
However, Mr. Bush's Presidential
ute, while the President seemed irri-
instinct told him to step up to the
tated about having to read the com-
urgent needs of the embryonic
plicated mess just handed to him.
democracies; not only would this
Round One: The challenger. But
save the U.S. money in the long
it's a long bout, and the champ has
run, but it would relieve him of the
been in this ring before.
A22
THE
NEW
YORK
TIMES
NATIONAL
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 1, 1992
The 1992 Campaign
"The pool of Arkansas high school
seniors taking the test has greatly ex-
Candidate's Record
panded," said Mike Gauldin, a Clinton
Education:
aide, "Only the best of our students
took the test a decade ago. But now, in
The Clinton Years
Despite Improvements, the Schools
good part because of Bill Clinton's push
to get more kids to finish high school
Clinton's terms as Governor of Arkansas
and then go on to college, we've got
even some marginal students taking
In Arkansas Are Still Among Worst
the test. So of course the average score
RESOURCES
has suffered."
Testing experts do not question that
Spending on public schools
Average teacher salaries,
analysis. But they also note that the
per pupil, in thousands
in thousands
By B. DRUMMOND AYRES Jr.
pool of high school seniors taking the
Special to The New York Times
Clinton as Governor
school graduates who do not go on to
test in other states has also expanded.
college.
$6
$35
And they point out that three of every
LITTLE ROCK, Ark. - As he cam-
12 Years at Arkansas's Helm
At home, those programs have often
four Arkansas high school graduates
paigns for President, Gov. Bill Clinton
5
UNITED
30
Second of five articles.
faced major resistances from state
must take remedial courses as college
talks a great deal about the importance
STATES
legislators, taxpayers and even the
freshmen, twice the national average.
25
of education, boasting that "the most
4
state's education establishment. But
Since Mr. Clinton first became Gov-
important thing" he has accomplished
the Governor, with the help of his wife,
20
trated effort to advance education,
ernor in 1979, Arkansas has managed
in Arkansas has been improving the
3
has persistently pressed for action on
schools. If elected, Mr. Clinton says, he
even if progress is slow.
to cut its high school dropout rate
15
the programs, with mixed results.
would do the same for the nation.
"We haven't gone for a hollow, flashy
slightly. Now about 77 percent of all
2
Under Mr. Clinton's leadership, Ar-
quick-fix," said Bill Bowen, Mr. Clin-
To increase school spending, he had
ninth graders go on to complete high
10
kansas has done much to improve its
ton's chief of staff. "We've laid a foun-
to raise the state's sales tax, which hits
school, compared with 75 percent a
1
ARKANSAS
poor people the hardest. He had been
decade ago. That is better than the
-5
schools - boosting expenditures, re-
dation of good programs, and now it's a
unable to persuade the Legislature to
national average, which hovered
0
0
quiring competency testing for teach-
matter of fine-tuning and waiting for
raise other taxes. When he pushed
around 72 percent over the period.
ers, broadening curriculums, setting
things to come to fruition."
'79-'80
84-85
'89-'90
'79-'80
'84-'85
'89-'90
new academic standards, slowing the
through his proposal to test teachers
The improvement in that statistic
Mr. Clinton's critics contend that
dropout rate and encouraging greater
much fine-tuning remains. They say
for competency, some retired and
resulted in good part, educators say,
some quit rather than submit. One had
because Mr. Clinton imposed a regula-
RESULTS
college attendance. The effort resulted
the state, one of the least taxed in the
in part from a court order that in-
nation, must make a greater commit-
just been named "Arkansas Teacher of
tion that has proved effective in a num-
ment to education and spend even
the Year."
ber of other states, too. Teen-agers who
Percentage of students
Percentage of adults over 25
structed the state to improve its educa-
tion system.
more on schools if it is ever to rise from
Consolidation Hits Roadblock
do not remain in school through gradu-
graduating from high school
who have completed four years
ation lose their driver's licenses. The
But even with all Mr. Clinton has
the bottom ranks of education excel-
who enroll in college
of college education
Mr. Clinton's effort to make schools
Governor says he would try the same
done in 12 years as Governor, the Ar-
lence.
more effective and efficient by consoli-
thing nationally if he were elected
75%
25%
kansas school system, ranked among
"The bottom line is that Arkansas's
dating the unusually large number of
President.
the worst in the nation when Mr. Clin-
standing in most measurements of edu-
school districts has run head-on into
More Arkansas high school gradu-
60
cation quality was on the bottom when
20
ton first took office 12 years go, still
local pride and political power, which
ates are going to college. In 1979, only
lags near the bottom in most national
brought the effort to a near standstill.
about one of every three high school
ratings. And state officials acknowl-
Arkansas had more than 350 school
45
15
graduates went to college. More point-
edge that real improvement is many
Clinton has kept
districts 10 years ago and still has
edly, only half of all high school vale-
years away.
almost that number. Many districts
dictorians sought further education.
30
10
And so Governor Clinton's aides
state education
have fewer than 300 students. When
Today, half of all Arkansas high
acknowedge that there is no guarantee
Mr. Clinton first moved into the Gover-
school graduates go on to college. That
15
5
that his ideas would produce positive
nor's office, Arkansas's education
from falling
is about equal to the national average.
results nationally.
rankings were not just at the bottom.
Many use a college scholarship pro-
One study, produced at the University
0
0
Since Mr. Clinton first took office in
gram instituted by Mr. Clinton.
further behind.
of Florida in 1978, concluded that Ar-
'80
'85
'90
1970
1980
1989
1979, more Arkansans have gone on
In 1979, fewer than 10 percent of all
from high school to college. At the
kansas schools were the very worst in
Arkansas residents held college de-
Figures for missing years not available.
same time, college-admittance test
the nation.
grees, while the national average was
scores have fallen rather than risen.
Clinton came in, and it's still on the
In the absence of a new study, it is
about 15 percent. Today, Arkansas has
Sources: Federal and state education departments; National Education Association
The state still ranks near the bottom in
teachers' pay, 46th among the 50 states
bottom," said Sheffield Nelson, Mr.
hard to say whether Arkansas schools
achieved the 15 percent level, but at the
Clinton's Republican opponent in the
may still be considered the worst in the
same time the national figure has risen
The New York Times
and the District of Columbia. It ranks
1990 governor's race. "He's the one
nation. What is clear is that despite
to more than 21 percent.
48th in spending for each pupil.
considerable improvement in the
Similarly, just as Mr. Clinton was
its budget goes to education, compared
who brags he's accomplished so much
Association, which represents the
By most accounts Mr. Clinton's ef-
schools under Mr. Clinton's guidance,
preparing to take over as Governor,
with a national average of about 35
state's teachers.
over the years. Well, if he can't do any
forts seem to have simply kept Arkan-
better than that nationally, God help
the state still ranks near the bottom in
Arkansas ranked 40th in per capita
percent.
After Mr. Clinton raised taxes to
sas, one of the nation's poorest states,
us."
many of the charts that measure edu-
spending for its colleges and universi-
In 1977, the state stood 38th in the
increase teachers' pay last year, the
from falling even farther behind. While
As Governor, Mr. Clinton has con-
cation quality nationally. For example,
ties. Today, it has slipped back a notch,
percentage of each Arkansas resi-
association put up a brass plaque in the
he has been pushing for better schools
tended that Arkansas will never lift
in 1979 the cummulative test scores of
to 41st.
dent's personal income that went for
capital, thanking the Governor for his
in his own state, many other governors,
itself from poverty without an im-
Arkansas students who took the Amer-
While many education statistical
schooling, at 4.3 percent, compared
contributions to education.
particularly in neighboring southern
proved school system. Now, as a candi-
ica College Test, one popular college-
measures have stagnated during the
with a national average of 4.6 percent.
"We've fought him tooth and nail on
states, have also been improving their
admittance test, ranked 20th of 28
Clinton years, some other measures
Arkansas now ranks 24th in that cate-
date for President, he is asserting that
things like teacher testing," Mr. John
schools.
the United States cannot continue to be
states that use the test. The state
are more encouraging.
gory, at 4.1 percent, compared with a
son says now. "But overall schools are
Mr. Clinton and his supporters do not
a global power if it does not improve its
ranked 50th of 50 states and the Dis-
In 1979, half of the state's high
national average of 3.9 percent.
a lot better now than they were before
deny that Arkansas continues to lag in
schools.
trict of Columbia in expenditure for
schools did not offer physics courses.
"At a time when some school. sys-
Bill Clinton arrived."
many important areas. But they con-
If elected President, he says, he
each pupil in elementary and second-
Only two-thirds offered chemistry
tems have cut back because of enroll-
tend that the Clinton administration's
would put into place some of the pro-
ary schools. It ranked 51st in teacher
courses. Many offered no foreign lan-
ment decline and other factors, we
effort has laid the groundwork for fu-
grams and innovations he has empha-
salaries.
guages. Today, all schools offer physics
haven't slacked off a bit," said Burton
Next: Arkansas and business.
ture improvement by focusing a spot-
sized in Arkansas. Many were first
Today, the latest available statistics
and chemisty courses, as well as for-
Elliott, the director of the Arkansas
light on an issue that was seldom front
suggested by an education study com-
show that Arkansas has fallen to 25th
eign languages.
Education Department.
and center in this state before the
mittee that he appointed his wife, Hilla-
of the 28 states that administer one
And then there are two other impor-
Governor took office.
ry, to head.
popular college test examination. It
tant measures that show how much
Teachers Back Overall Effort
They also point out that Arkansas,
In particular, he mentions increas-
has inched up to 48th in per-pupil ex-
emphasis a state puts on education.
While Mr. Clinton has often been at
despite its poverty and multitude of
ing state financing for Head Start, set-
penditures and 46th in teacher pay.
One shows what percentage of the
odds with the Arkansas Legislature,
competing needs, now commits a larg-
ting academic achievement standards,
Arkansas officials say they are not
overall state budget goes to schools,
the taxpayers and even the teachers
er portion of its budget to education
seeking new ways to help college stu-
disturbed by the decline in test scores,
and the other shows what percent of
over how to improve the state's
than all but two other states, suggest-
dents pay education costs and develop-
which some educators consider a ma-
the average Arkansas resident's per-
schools, increasingly he has been hav-
ing that the state is making a concen-
ing job-training programs for high
jor measure of educational attainment.
sonal income goes to education. These
ing his way. In 1991, for example, law-
figures go beyond gross dollars and
makers agreed to set up a trust fund
measure instead the overall emphasis
that will be used to expand early child-
a state puts on education.
hood education programs like Head
In 1977, Arkansas ranked 19th in the
Start. That is an area of education Mr.
percentage of its total state and local
Clinton considers critical.
budget going to schooling, just over 40
percent, compared with a national av-
"We've had the best of times and the
erage of about 38 percent. Now the
worst of times with Bill Clinton, when it
state ranks third; almost 42 percent of
comes to schools," said Sid Johnson,
president of the Arkansas Education
Houston school system:
Kids must be feoted:
a better fest
more comprehensive
test.
A22 THE WALL STREET JOURNAL TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 19, 1991
POLITICS & POLICY
Bush, Sensing Only a Public Relations Problem,
Vexed Voters
Percentage of voters who disapprove of
President Bush's handling of the economy
Will Delay Any New Economic Plans Until 1992
80%
70
By ALAN MURRAY
interest rates last week demonstrated the
1990, the White House Council of Economic
And JOHN HARWOOD
dangers of even suggesting measures to
Advisers wrote that attempts to influence
60
Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
help the economy at the end of a congres-
the economy in the short run "can be detri-
WASHINGTON-F the Bush adminis-
sional session.
mental to good economic performance."
50
tration, like the old Brooklyn Dodgers, the
White House officials have continued to
But the president's critics say he's
plan is, "Wait until next year."
attack a Senate bill to limit credit-card
failed to make even that case convinc-
40
Despite mounting bipartisan criticism
rates as preposterous, even though the leg-
ingly. He would do better, says Mr. Keene,
for its failure to address the nation's eco-
if he were able to say with conviction that
30
Econ
islation came a day after President Bush
nomic ills, the administration has decided
himself suggested that rates should go
anything we do will screw it up, and by
its immediate problem is largely one of
20
lower. Mr. Bush said, "That never oc-
God we are on the right course and nobody
S. 0 N D J F M A M J J A S 0
public relations, and will put off any new
curred to me that somebody was going to
is going to change It,
economic, policy. proposals untill next
1990
1991
introduce legislation
I didn't think
Instead, the president's wavering has
year.
about it then: Maybe I should have.
created the impression that he doesn't
"I think I've got to do better making
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL/NBC NEWS POLL
At a lunch, Budget Director Richard
know what to do. Presidential scholar Fred
clear what the message. is," President
Darman said "the end-of-session psychol-
Bush told a small group of reporters.
Greenstein says the president appears to
gress.
ogy is frequently very poor in Congress."
have been caught by a hemor-
Mr. Darman said his differences with
White House officials say their intention is
He argued that the State of the Union ad-
to lie low until Congress leaves town, then
rhaging of domestic support." Mr. Green-
Mr. Kemp were merely "tactical." And, he
dress, which will be given in late January
stein asserts that while Mr. Bush sounded
launch a communications offensive that
said of Mr. Kemp: "On balance, he has
or early February, is a better time to set a
will explain the president's position and at-
very confident during the Persian Gulf
been a net plus publicly for the administra-
strong economic agenda. "In the general
tack congressional Democrats.
war, when discussing the economy re-
tion, so I would not want to be critical of
public's mind there's a ritual, a rhythm of
Vice President Dan Quayle gave re-
cently he has lapsed into the shrill, frag-
him.'
renewal
to the State of the Union," he
mented syntax "that betray this man when
Vice President Quayle, meanwhile,
porters a preview of the rhetoric to come
said.
he's not comfortable with himself.
plans to take his message on the road this
by singling out Senate Majority Leader
George Mitchell of Maine for blocking con-
Mr. Darman also argued that the prob-
Worry Over "Caving In'
week with a speech In Tennessee, and an-
sideration of the capital gains tax cut in
lem was largely one of public relations. "I
other in Chicago later In the month. That
Even If the president were to put for-
think that we have not yet done as good a
message, he says, is that a capital-gains
1989. "You ought to call it the George
ward an economic rescue plan now, he
Mitchell recession, and I'm going to keep
job as we should do in communicating ef-
tax cut is "a silver bullet" that will "cre-
would likely be attacked for merely caving
saying It over and over again because It's
fectively what it is we're really for and
ate jobs and put America back to work."
in to political pressure-as he has ap-
why it really does make sense,' he said.
By blocking the administration's proposal
true," Mr. Quayle said. "Those that have
peared to do recently on other issues, in-
"We're aware of the problem and we're
on grounds of fairness, Mr. Quayle adds,
stymied our program are going to have to
cluding unemployment compensation, the
be held accountable."
working on it."
Democratic leaders in Congress are "will-
civil rights bill and the cancellation of his
ing to risk keeping people poor because
The White House strategy, however, is
Right-Wing Criticism
trip to Asia. "Whatever he does now is go-
one person may get rich."
unlikely to satisfy many Republicans, who
Much of the most Intense criticism has
ing to be seen as reactive," says GOP poll-
"Congress has basically told us they're
believe the president is endangering his
come from the right wing of the presi-
ster Bill McInturff.
not going to pass the president's growth
own chances of re-election by ignoring the
dent's own party. Dan Mitchell, an eco-
The president's indecisiveness has fos-
package," Mr. Quayle says. "We've basi-
economy's problems. "The notion of sitting
nomic analyst at the conservative Heritage
tered public bickering among his own ad-
cally said, 'OK there's no use staying
back and doing nothing while the voters
Foundation, dismisses White House eco-
visers. Most notably, Housing and Urban
around. You go home, listen to the Ameri-
get angrier and angrier about a sagging
nomic policy as "taxes, regulation and
Development Secretary Jack Kemp has
can people, and be prepared to work when
economy is simply not going to play,' said
easy money," referring to the 1990 deficit
said in interviews and on television that he
you get back in January.'
GOP Rep. Vin Weber of Minnesota. And
reduction agreement, environmental legis-
believes the president should immediately
-Michel McQueen contributed to this
conservative activist David Keene argues
lation and Mr. Bush's calls for lower inter-
begin pushing a tax cut through Con-
article.
that the president "does not seem to have
est rates. "Carternomics doesn't work any
a real sense of where he wants to go."
better for George Bush than it did for
Credit-Card Brouhaha
Jimmy Carter," Mr. Mitchell says.
The decision to do nothing until next-
The president's top economic advisers
year was reinforced at a meeting of the
have argued for some time that the admin-
president's economic advisers Friday. At
istration shouldn't try to fine-tune the econ-
the meeting, several presidential advisers
omy, and instead should focus on long-
argued that the brouhaha over credit-card
term growth. As long ago as February
Am
BUSH HAS NO PLANS
FOR MAJOR EFFORTS
TO REVIVE ECONOMY
SEES EVIDENCE OF GROWTH
President Also Says in Interview
He Feels No Urgency to Pick
His Re-election Team
By MICHAEL WINES
Special to The New York Times
WASHINGTON, Nov. 18 - President
Bush said today that he believed that
the American economy was basically
sound and that he planned no major
new programs to stimulate growth, but
S
=
he acknowledged having trouble con-
vincing the public that his policies were
adequate.
Amid evidence that the continued
economic sluggishness is already
throwing his re-election campaign off
balance, Mr. Bush called reporters to
his office on short notice to strike a
confident note about the country and
his plans for a second term.
He said he felt no urgency to have a
full campaign team in place, but he
nonetheless said he might soon an-
nounce a top echelon of re-election offi-
cials
Allaying Fears
Just days after the stock market
suffered its fifth-worst day in history,
Mr. Bush took the opportunity to try to
allay the fears of some supporters that
the Democrats are using the poor econ-
omy to seize control of the 1992 election
agenda. He said that neither he nor
most top economists believed that the
:
nation would slide back into a full-
:
fledged recession next year
"You see, there's some fairly good
1
fundamentals getting out there," he
said. "Inflation is down: Interest rates
e
are down. Personal debt is down. In-
/
ventories are down. Quality - competi-
è
tiveness - quality is going in the right
,
direction, up; and exports are up: So it's
not like we're dealing with a totally bad
$
economy
[
"I'm not basing any plans on the
;
economy getting worse," he said.
Seeking a Compelling Message
;
Today's session with reporters in the
e
Oval Office, like Mr. Bush's news con-
1
ference before he left for a meeting of
the North Atlantic Treaty Organization
im Rome the morning after Election
e
Day, seemed intended to get the Presi-
dent off the defensive, but ended up
reinforcing the impression that he is
struggling to find a compelling cam-
)
paign message.
Rather than holding a formal news
conference today, the White House in-
B10
THE NEW YORK TIMES NATIONAL TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 19, 1991
Bush Sees No Need for Moves to Revive Economy
I'
Continued From Page Al
The President
tude had been "the right approach"
vited six correspondents recently as-
and that the President should not, and
signed to the White House to meet with
Mr. Bush.
concedes delivery
is not competent to, persuade stock
traders to push stock prices upward or
Asked why polls indicate that many
downward. The stock market gained
Americans believe that the country is
problems for his
29.52 points today.
"I've tried as President to stay out of
sheaded in the wrong direction, he re-
message.
that," he said. "Perhaps what's hap-
plied: "I think I've got to do better in
pening in the market today vindicates
making clear what the message is, and
that; I don't know. But let the market
x1 think I can do better. But I think
the unrelenting bad economic news has
sort that out."
'there's so much noise out there that
drowned him out.
But the President defended his earli-
I've got to figure out how to make It
Today's Oval Office interview came
er efforts to persuade banks to lower
clearer that we are for the things that I
after a difficult week in which factory
their credit card rates, a move some
have advocated that would help."
prices rose and automobile and retail
experts have said is as likely to hurt
Mr. Bush said he felt that no "radi-
sales fell. In speeches, Mr. Bush first
the economy as help it; since lower
"cally different approaches" were need-
called on banks to reduce interest rates
rates would encourage financially
ied to promote further growth beyond
on credit cards voluntarily, apparently
pressed consumers, to take on : still
his existing six-point legislative pro-
hoping to touch a chord with middle-
more debt.
gram, which includes a proposal to cut
class voters. Then, some Republicans
Not 'Interfering In the Market'
the tax rate for capital gains, legisla-
in Congress led a move to enact man-
tion to overhaul the banking system
datory ceilings on credit card rates,
Encouraging a decline in interest, he
and a highway bill that sponsors say
panicking banks that rely on interest
said, is not "interfering in the market"
swould create thousands of jobs.
from credit cards to remain profitable.
but something the White House regu-
That, in turn, may have helped spur
larly does in statements aimed at thei
Paul Hosefros/The New York Times
Some parts of that package, like the
highway bill, appear headed for pas-
a 120-point drop in the stock market on
Federal Reserve and other institutions
President Bush said he is having
sage. Others, like the proposed cut in
Friday and initiated another cycle of
that influence such rates.
trouble persuading the public that
the capital gains tax, have been stalled
downbeat predictions about economic
Asked whether he believed it would
in Congress for years and show few
be good for the economy if Americans
his policies are adequate.
prospects.
signs of moving toward passage.
Mr. Bush dismissed the steep drop in
made more purchases on credit, Mr.
In political speeches around the
the stock market last week in a phrase
Bush appeared to respond with a quali-
and from within his own party's most
country In recent weeks, the President
fied yes.
conservative wing.
on Saturday, telling reporters who in-
has responded to Democratic attacks
terrupted his round of golf: "We'll see
"That should be a decision made by
Friends of Patrick J. Buchanan, the
by accusing Congress of thwarting his
what happens Monday. No reason to
individuals," he said. "But frankly, I'd
conservative television commentator
domestic legislation. That strategy has
like to see the cash registers ring at
and writer, have said he may enter the
get all concerned.'
Hong worked for Mr. Bush and his pre-
Christmastime. It would be very good
Republican primary against Mr. Bush,
Today, noting that the stock market
decessor, Ronald Reagan, but lately
had headed back up, he said that atti-
for the economy."
and David Duke, the former Ku Klux
The President was reluctant to say
Klan leader who lost decisively in Loui-
what else he might propose to help the
siana's race for governor on Saturday,
economy or when he might propose it,
said today that he was exploring the
except that he would wait until after
possibility of challenging the Presi-
Congress's scheduled adjournment on
dent.
Friday to announce any new legislative
Mr. Bush acknowledged that 1992
Recruitment Advertisers
programs.
was shaping up as a potentially bad
That, he said, would remove Con-
year for incumbents, based on the anti-
The New York Times
gress from the scene, enabling the Ad-
government message that most ana-
ministration to "package what I'm
lysts saw in this month's elections in
It's the place to be seen!
talking about in a way that people will
Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Virginia
Call (212) 556-7226
see it loud and clear and understand it
and elsewhere.
and, hopefully, support me more.
After nearly 11 years in the White
'A Certain Confidence'
House, he said he has some concern
Times
that the voters this year may start to
The
New
York
On his own prospects for re-election,
view him as an incumbent marked for
the President said that he felt "a cer-
defeat. "But I think I can handle it," he
tain confidence about it, about the out-
said. "I also note at the same time that
THURSDAY.
FEBRUARY
YORK
COMI
come" of the 1992 race, but that he was
people seem to suggest that Congress
taking seriously the emerging signs of
is more to blame than the President
challenges from both the Democrats
though."
Foreign Affairs
thinking of their bosses.
LESLIE H. GELB
Like Mr. Bush. Mr. Baker has his
own inner trio: Robert Zoellick, the
Under Secretary of State for Eco-
Mr. Bush's
nomic Affairs; Dennis Ross, Director
scribed as technocrats with certain
of the Policy Planning Staff, and Mar-
leanings - with the exception of Mr.
garet Tutwiler, the Assistant Secre-
Wolfowitz, who is well established in
tary for Public Affairs. All three
Three
conservative foreign policy circles.
worked closely with Mr. Baker in the
Mr. O'Keefe and Mr. Williams (also
Reagan Administration before he
Mr.: Addington) are more political
took them to State.
operatives than policy advisers, and
Trios
Mr. Zoellick, 38, runs foreign eco-
their politics run to a moderate-con-
nomic policy, but he also fills what
servative Republicanism. Mr. Ross
had been two other separate top jobs
and Mr. Zoellick play the role of
- Gounselor and chief of staff. Every
grand strategists, and their strate-
Never since World War II have so
piece of paper going to and from Mr.
gies have a moderate-liberal cast.
few had so much control over the
Baker passes his desk. Mr. Ross, 43,
None of the inner aides carry the
is the key policy maker for East-West
making of American foreign and de-
baggage of a personal policy bibliog-
relations and the Middle East. Ms.
fense policy. And though the profes-
raphy, and that has proved of enor-
sionals in the State and Defense De-
Tutwiler, 40, is the political confi-
mous advantage. Most key officials in
dante.
partments grumble about being ex-
recent Administrations, like Richard
Mr. Cheney also has his trio: Paul
cluded, never in the last 40 years has
Perle and Richard Burt under Ronald
the national security bureaucracy
Wolfowitz, the Under Secretary for
Reagan, took to the pen to offer policy
Policy; Pete Williams, the Assistant
known such harmony.
ideas and slay opponents - which
The obvious part of this story is the
Secretary for Public Affairs, and
made them constant targets them-
passing of most throat-cutting cold
Sean O'Keefe, the Comptroller.
selves once in office. The new crowd
(Some might also include David Ad-
war. issues and Mr. Bush's skill in
came to power without a track record
and without enemies.
getting his trio of senior aides -
dington, 34, the Cheney special assist-
ant and gatekeeper.)
Secretary of State James Baker, De-
What the two trios did bring with
fense Secretary Dick Cheney and
Mr. Wolfowitz, 47 and the only
them, as did their bosses, was a dis-
member of the inner circle not tied to
Brent Scowcroft, the national securi-
trust of the bureaucracy. Yes, they
ty adviser - to work together without
Mr. Cheney's past, is the big-think
include senior departmental officials
man for issues like the Persian Gulf
the legendary bloodletting that devas-
on certain subjects. But for the most
war and arms control. Mr. Williams,
tated their predecessors.
part' they meet with their bosses
39, sits in on most discussions. Mr.
But a largely uncommented-upon
alone and tell their colleagues only
O'Keefe, 35, oversees defense pro-
what they want them to know.
and unusual part of the story has to do
grams and spending - after Gen.
The military and Foreign Service
with the inner teams assembled by
Colin Powell, the Chairman of the
Mr. Baker and Mr. Cheney. These new
professionals are not happy with this
Joint Chiefs, and the military serv-
second-tier officials who receive little
lot.. They used to rebel when given
publicity are young, generally without
ices make their proposals.
such. treatment by allying with
Mr. Cheney and his trio are even
friendly legislators and leaking to the
prior experience in top departmental
jobs, of diverse ideological back-
more fierce than the Baker crowd in
press. Now the professionals quietly
keeping other agencies out of their
march along because, much to their
grounds and almost totally untainted
business. Even the White House
surprise, they like and respect the
by Ivy League educations. They, along
largely leaves the Pentagon alone.
Bush Administration policies. Not a
with several key National Security
And:Dick Cheney tends to share few-
bad accomplishment for Mr. Bush
Council staffers, wield unprecedented
er White House secrets with his aides
and his trio and their trios.
power inside their organizations. And
than Mr. Baker does with his trio.
they alone are Drivv to the innermost
All these inner aides can be de-
PAGE
20
OF
33
initiative were true believers devot-
CONNECTICUT
eir spare hours to a cause they held
PRIMARY
1-800
They had a right to expect that their
would not be shunted into bureau-
or legal limbo.
tobacco-tax supporters find them-
in a special bind. They'd like to put
ative on November's ballot, but can-
asonably ask their troops to begin
VOTERS
ing signatures so long as the Su-
Court could rule in their favor on the
petitions and thrust that initiative
is year's ballot. Hence they sit on
ands, hoping the court will deign to
efore it's too late for a fresh cam-
"HAVE FUN, DEAR. I TRUST YOU'RE SEEING THAT NICE
OR has been punished with a differ-
SOUTHERN BOY FROM ARKANSAS AGAIN, TONIGHT?'
t of water torture, with no end to it
it. Douglas Bruce, the Colorado
tax-limitation activist, submitted
ENVIRO
VIEWPOINT
IS for two initiatives last November.
ary of State Natalie Meyer threw out
third of the signatures three weeks
- tomorrow we'll discuss the appall-
The newest name for an old
ails of this process - forcing Bruce
allies to pore over voter lists trying
e the validity of enough names to
shakedown: 'Earth Summit'
eir proposals.
e case of a tax-limitation measure,
} partisans succeeded in finding
n Michigan, scientists have discovered a
them to do it. Rich nations will raise the
state errors to preserve their
10,000-year-old fungus, weighing as
money by taxing their citizens for energy
nent for the ballot. But the fate of
much as a whale, 30 acres large, hidden
use.
er measure remains in doubt. Bruce
under the ground, with only pretty, little
It is sad to see the U.N. go down the rip-
cohort simply ran out of time before
mushrooms poking above the surface.
off road again, using environmentalism as
uld complete a thorough review of
In New York, at the
the mushroom of choice. The environment
1 signatures. Only the timely inter-
United Nations, another
is one realm where some global regulation
of a judge can probably save their
huge, old and hidden fun-
makes some theoretical sense.
e now.
gus has been vegetating,
What to do? Rethink from scratch. The
e will emphasize during the next two
but the mushrooms are
intellectual basis for the Earth Summit runs
ie 1989 law throws petitioners into
threatening to sprout big-
counter to what the human species has
Il battle when confronting hostile or
ger and uglier. Prepara-
learned recently. This: Centrally directed
tate officials. The law assumes, of
tions have been going on
economies don't work, and dependency
that the secretary of state will be
for two years for "The
harms the people it is supposed to help.
hostile nor petty, and there is evi-
Earth Summit," a spec-
Thus, the communist centralized econo-
that Meyer's office has indeed
Ben
tacular U.N. conference
mies yielded poverty and pollution. Govern-
from the past few months and
Wattenberg
scheduled for Rio de Ja-
ment-to-government foreign aid mostly
to clean up its act. But so long as
neiro in June.
helped scruffy tyrants. Yet the ES agenda
ential exists for similar abuses down
A domestic political
tends to sanctify both ideas.
d, the law remains an affront to
fight about it is already under way. Environ-
There is a better way. For we have
and to the Colorado Constitution. It
mentalists want President Bush to attend
learned something positive as well: Liberty
nore than the minor tune-up now
the ES gala and announce that it's a grand
works. Free markets and free politics yield
idea.
plated by the General Assembly. It
prosperity. Only free countries are rich;
be junked.
But it isn't. It's an old hidden, U.N.
only rich countries can pay the price of
-sday: How the secretary of
fungus, painted green. In earlier times the
environmental cleanliness.
office mishandled the two TA-
U.N. mushrooms were called, among other
So President Bush should not go to Rio
itiatives.
things, "The New International Economic
just to give the poor nations and the envi-
Order," "The Law of the Sea" and "The
ronmentalists a condescending pat on the
Brundtlandt Report." But the theme is
head for a bad idea. Ideas have conse-
and vase
always the same: The U.N. gets power, the
quences. Legitimizing this discredited phi-
Third World gets money.
losophy would yield a world both poor and
The generic argument has gone this way:
polluted.
glass, the Portland vase. None of
Poor nations are poor because rich nations
There is one other strategy. The presi-
previous interpretations of the enig-
are rich. Rich nations should pay poor
dent could go to Rio and tell the truth.
cenes on the vase has won general
nations reparations. The transfer should
Which would go something like this:
nce. Skalsky intricately ties all the
proceed under a cloak of crisis ("the sea,"
"Friends, there is no free lunch. There is
and symbols to themes, and a par-
"the environment"). The terms of transfer
no payoff in panhandling. Green beggar
work, of the poet Catullus.
should be centrally regulated by U.N. bu-
socialism is not the wave of the future.
irst, scholarly publishers wanted
reaucrats.
There are no magic mushrooms, only the
f it. The happy ending is that
The more definite ES idea, still mostly
magic of the market, which works because
's theory finally won a prestigious
hidden beneath mountains of platitudinous
it comes from liberty, both political and
on, and the journal Arion will fea-
and weasel-worded documents, goes this
economic. It can cure both poverty and
article in May. The modest Skalsky
way: We need general environmental clean-
pollution. If you're interested, we in Ameri-
nts to get back to his books, but we
up and, particularly, emissions control to
ca will try to help. If the U.N. is interested,
ith satisfaction, that his, fortune is
deal with "global warming." Poor nations
let's all plan a new summit, for a new world,
are too poor to do it. Rich nations must pay
order,
EUROPE
Soviet Union
the nationalists earlier in an effort to calm
nior party men in last month's election,
Before the flood
things down. Calling in the troops on April
have called for action to regain control.
9th was a clear over-reaction.
Throughout the Baltic republics, for the
At the other extreme is the Estonian
first time since glasnost began, individual
party, which decided last year that, since it
party people are being warned-sometimes
a week in the
could not beat the mass popular-front move-
by their own leaders, sometimes by Mos-
Tbilisi, to look into
ment pushing for greater autonomy, it had
cow-that they must choose between the
the clash on April 9th between troops and
better join it. As a result, Estonia's Commu-
nationalist cause and the Communist one.
nationalist demonstrators which killed 20
nists fared better than comrades in other re-
people, the Soviet foreign minister, Mr Ed-
publics in last month's election for the new
Warning: storms ahead
ward Shevardnadze, had some hard words
national parliament. Yet twice in recent
for the republic's Communist party. It was,
Across the country, alarm bells are ringing.
months Pravda has warned the Estonian
A new militia is being created in Latvia, like
he said, hard to explain why Communists
party that calls for independence and the
the new riot squads in Moscow and Lenin-
should talk to the people "from behind
like, put out by the popular front (to which
grad. Penalties for undermining the state or
tanks and armoured transports". Increas-
many individual Communists now belong),
fanning nationalism have been stiffened.
ingly, Communists around the Soviet
are getting out of hand. Indeed, Estonia
Union are doing just that.
And plenty of worried letters have been ap-
looks set for its second defiance of Moscow
pearing in the military press. This sort of
In the week that followed the Tbilisi
in under six months over new laws on pri-
thing has happened before, when national-
troubles, troops and tanks could be spotted
vate property, immigration controls to keep
ism has become a worry. This time it is dif-
on the city streets of at least six of the Soviet
out unwanted Russians, and financial mea-
ferent. Nationalist groups are ignoring the
Union's 14 non-Russian republics. Their
sures to protect living standards in the re-
warnings. Especially in the Baltic republics,
tasks ranged from brief cameo appearances
public. Latvia's parliament is about to fol-
people seem to have lost their fear of step-
in Latvia and Estonia in the Baltic region,
low suit.
through curfew duties in Georgia, Armenia
ping out of line. That can be a dangerous
Seen from Moscow, the enthusiasm
sort of self-confidence.
and Azerbaijan (the site of nationalist unrest
with which some party members in the Bal-
They calculate that Mr Gorbachev can-
last year that claimed nearly 100 lives). In
tic republics have espoused the nationalist
not impose a crackdown to "restore order"
Tashkent, in the Central Asian republic of
cause is at best unseemly. At worst it threat-
Uzbekistan, troops were reported to be on
without undermining the whole process of
ens to split the Communist party, which so
reform. Mr Gorbachev has flatly ruled out
the streets in force on April 10th and 11th
far, along with the army, has been the chief
the re-drawing of the boundaries between
after a large nationalist gathering. Is the
integrating institution in Soviet society.
republics to settle local grievances. But he
Communist party losing its grip?
In February the Lithuanian party boss,
has otherwise tried to sound conciliatory to-
Not yet. By April 17th Mr Shevard-
Mr Algirdas Brazauskas, told a meeting of
nadze, himself a Georgian and a former boss
wards the different nationalist groups. He
his Central Committee that the republic
recognises that the old policy of often brutal
of the republic, had struck a deal that step
was only a step away from the imposition of
by step withdrew the curfew and troops in
Russification fostered resentment. He hopes
"a special form of rule", better known as
that the airing of grievances will make them
Tbilisi in return for assurances that people
martial law. Mr Brazauskas has tried to stay
less dangerous. In particular, he hopes that
would return to work. The Georgian party
on good terms with Lithuania's popular
chief accepted responsibility for the violence
the problem can be contained until a special
front, Sajudis (Unity), but some of his col-
Central Committee meeting sorts out a na-
in the city and has been replaced, along with
leagues, now smarting from the rebuff to se-
tionalities policy in the summer. But the
the republic's prime minister and president.
Although calm has been restored, the new
speed with which events in Georgia turned
leadership in Georgia still faces resentment,
anti-Russian earlier this month may have
made some in the party think again.
especially after reports that troops had used
There has long been a conservative
chemicals against some demonstrators.
Events there have rattled party men all the
lobby in the Politburo which believes that
the economy would work a lot more effi-
way to Moscow.
ciently with a little more discipline, even if it
Nationalist demands have been growing
was the discipline of the truncheon from
louder in all the non-Russian republics since
time to time. That is why both Mr Gorba-
Mr Gorbachev's policy of glasnost allowed
chev and Mr Shevardnadze have been at
old complaints to be
brought into the open.
pains to point to the danger that nationalist
Each outburst of resent-
disturbances pose for reform. As Mr
Shevardnadze put it last week to his Geor-
ment has been containable.
But to party people used to
gian comrades: "Every river, however wide,
being able to keep a tight lid
has its banks. Every
on things, they now seem to
movement of people,
however wide, has or
come with alarming
should have internal and
rapidity.
Local party bosses, who
external limiting factors.
If these limits are crossed,
are at the sharp end of Mr
Gorbachev's reforms, could
as by a river in spate, then
be forgiven for thinking
devastating elemental
forces may be unleashed.
that they can get nothing
right. The violence in Tbi-
Alas, it is not only history
that tells us this." Col-
lisi, Mr Shevardnadze
seemed to imply, would not
ourfully put. But is any-
have happened if Nocal
body out there interested
Communists had talked to
in flood warnings?
Come, come, children, these aren't toys
50
THE ECONOMIST APRIL 22 1989
Photocopy-Preservation
TUO
Speechwriter's
Newsletter
November 2, 1990
THE WEEKLY VOICE OF THE SILENT PROFESSION
LETTERS
All the President's speechwriters
For Chriss Winston, head of the White House speechwriting
An anonymous S/N reader sent in the
staff, "the main thing is to always remain a team."
following newspaper clipping and
"Early in the administration, people in the press were all saying 'George Bush
response.
hates to give speeches.' My question is, if he hates to give speeches so much, why
does he give so many?" asks Chriss Winston. President George Bush has delivered
Peggy Noonan, former Ronald
close to 600 speeches since taking office, but before he saw any of them, they had
Reagan speechwriter, in her
to go through Chriss Winston, Deputy Assistant for Communications, and head of
Mirabella column:
the White House speechwriting staff.
"One of the things I have noticed
"My job is to make sure the speech matches the policy, that the rhetoric matches
lately about rich people is the
what the President wants," Winston told SIN in a recent interview. In many
perfection of their cars. I'm noting, in
respects, Winston's job resembles that of a newspaper editor. She assigns
exclusive restaurants, at editorial
speeches, edits them, sends them out for clearance by cabinet officers, and recon-
board meetings where the perfectly
ciles the new language with the original text when the speech is returned. "This
dressed politician comes to speak, all
includes toasts and brief remarks by the President-everything goes through the
these perfectly smooth, round cars,
same process."
unflawed by a stray hair, a mole, an
Winston shares responsibility for hiring the White House speechwriters with
imperfection of any sort. I'm at a
David Demarest, Assistant to the President for Communications. "We debated at
celebratory lunch at Le Cirque and to
the beginning of the administration whether to recruit people with expertise in
my right is a famous movie producer
particular areas and pigeonhole them, but that wouldn't work with the number of
-two big perfect pink seashells on
speeches the President gives." Thus, all the President's speechwriters are general-
the side of his head."
ists-"All of them write on all subjects," Winston says, "and they're all experi-
enced and flexible writers. They're extremely fast, and do well under pressure."
When Winston receives a draft, she edits it for length, knowledge of the event
Dear Peggy:
and the audience, and what she calls "oomph," something special that might grab
Two requests-
some extra attention. Once the speech returns from the clearance process, Winston
(1) Stop allowing yourself to be
makes the requested changes (after discussing them with either the speechwriter or
called a speechwriter. There are those
the research assistant assigned to the speech) and does rewriting "if it's simple." If
of us who are proud of our member-
more complex revision is needed, Winston will give the speech back to the original
ship in this 2500-year-old profession.
writer, then consult with the cabinet staff to make sure the revised language is
You, on the other hand, are a
acceptable. Winston's policy is to avoid conflicts; there are seldom any "knock-
dilettante and a pretender, and we
down drag-outs" in the process.
resent your associating yourself with
Teamwork is essential to the speechwriting effort. "That's best for the Presi-
us.
dent," Winston says. "There are no prima donnas here. The main thing is to always
(2) Shaddup!
remain a team." In addition to the speechwriters, staff research assistants are "an
integral part" of the team. "They look not only for factual accuracy, but they
provide 'gee whiz' kinds of facts, anecdotes, color, and ideas that can make the
difference between a good speech and a great speech."
Winston's workday starts at eight or eight-thirty in the morning, and rarely ends
less than twelve hours later. Although "there are days when I yearn to sit and write
a whole speech," Winston looks at the White House job as "a once in a lifetime
opportunity. It's a unique opportunity to learn so much. I haven't been so intellec-
tually challenged in a long, long time."
LAWRENCE RAGAN COMMUNICATIONS, INC., PUBLISHER
RAGAN REPORT EDITOR'S WORKSHOP NEWSLETTER CORPORATE ANNUAL REPORT NEWSLETTER BOTTOM LINE COMMUNICATOR
GEORGEE WILL
Wilson, "is conscious that it has no other political spokes-
'Let Congress
man. His is the only national voice
Dahl doubts that presidential campaigns generate man-
dates for specific policies. He says a necessary (but not
Clear It Up'
sufficient) condition for claiming a mandate is winning a
majority of the votes. Reagan in 1980 (50.7 percent) and
Carter in 1976 (50.1) barely qualified and Kennedy in 1960
(49.7) and Nixon in 1968 (43.4) did not. And, says Dahl, even
when a president wins a majority there can be competing
claims for mandates: Democratic candidates for the House
Bush's pratfalls
won 50.4 percent of the vote in 1980 and 52 percent in 1984.
last week
But wait. Perhaps it can be demonstrated (as modern
opinion research purports to do) that presidential elections
underscored
usually involve meaningful majority consent to particular
the evanescence
policies only at high levels of generality ("Get America
moving again," 1960; "Peace with honor," 1968; "Cut tax-
of presidential
es," 1980; "Nonew taxes," 1988). But such a demonstration
does not dispose of the concept of a mandate.
power
Whatever else elections do, they confer offices. Since TR,
Wilson and, decisively, FDR invented the modern presiden-
cy, presidential elections have conferred a mandate in this
wo weekends ago, when the government was un-
limited but not negligible sense: Elections create a public
T
der the Gramm-Rudman guillotine, the president
mood of initial deference to acts of presidential discretion.
traveled back to Washington from Camp David by
Specific mandate: In 1988 Bush got a mandate for what?
car-not even a limousine-rather than helicop-
For not furloughing Willie Horton? For pledging alle-
ter, to affirm frugality. This Carteresque gesture
giance? For cutting capital gains taxes? (How many Bush
began a week during which Bush stepped from his car onto
voters were swayed by, or even aware of, that idea?) But even
a bunch of political banana skins strewn by himself. On
campaigns less negative and vapid than Bush's confer, pri-
Monday he said X about taxes. On Tuesday some Republi-
marily, an office and initial deference. That is, an election
can senators told him he really thought not-X, and he
provides less a mandate than an opportunity to fashion a
agreed. Asked on Wednesday (before Thursday's several
specific mandate while, and by, governing.
staggers) whether he could clarify his position he said, "Let
"The president," wrote president (of Princeton) Woodrow
Congress clear it up." Those were portentous words.
Wilson in 1908, "is at liberty both in law and conscience to be
Because of Bush's limitations as a leader he is losing a
as big a man as he can. His capacity will set the limit; and if
perennial constitutional argument: Who comes closest to
Congress overborne by him, it will be no fault of themakers
having, a mandate to rule, the president or Congress?
of the Constitution-it will be from no lack of constitutional
Bush's pratfalls last week underscored the evanescence of
powers on its part, but only because the president has the
presidential power. Bush is a case study of why, more often
nation behind him, and Congress has not. He has no means
than not, presidents lack mandates and Congress has, if
of compelling Congress except through public opinion."
not a mandate, the next best thing: supremacy.
For a few presidents, those with the requisite will and
Bush contributed to the restoration of the American
skill, some modern extraconstitutional developments
norm-congressional government-by the way he cam-
(broadcasting; opinion measurements techniques) compen-
paigned. Today he is augmenting congressional ascendan-
sate for Congress's superior constitutional powers. The kind
cy by governing in a manner that illustrates this: Most
of presidency ("tribune of the people," "rhetorical," "plebis-
presidents lack the skill or will to make the presidency
citary") necessary for wresting supremacy from Congress is
more than subservient. And now Robert A. Dahl, emeritus
an innovation. "From Washington through Jackson," writes
professor at Yale, has published (in Political Science Quar-
Dahl, "no president gave more than five speeches a year to
terly) an essay, "Myth of the Presidential Mandate," which
the general public, a total that was not exceeded by half the
suggests that subservience ought to be a president's lot.
presidents from Washington through McKinley." Presi-
Andrew Jackson was the first president to argue that
dents spoke primarily to Congress (usually in formal lan-
presidents, the officials elected by national votes, necessar-
guage and deferential tones), and occasionally to the public
ily acquire mandates that put them at least on a par with
in the sort of generalities heard in Inaugural addresses.
Congress, which is a conglomeration of representatives of
But today's political culture-a maelstrom of interest
lesser constituencies. Prior to Jackson and for most of the
groups generated by omniprovident government-makes
19th century, the prevailing doctrine was that Congress is
coherent congressional government impossible; hence pres-
the principal representative of the people. Jefferson's first
idential ascendancy is necessary. However, it may be be-
message to Congress was couched in language of a nonparti-
yond Bush's capacities.
san executive: "Nothing shall be wanting on my part to
Bush inherited the presidency from a "conviction
inform, as far as is in my power, the legislative judgment, nor
politician" who, because he was that, often aroused public
to carry that judgment into faithful execution." According to
opinion to compel Congress. But Bush seems to regard as
Edward S. Corwin, the constitutional historian, "The tone of
lèse-majesté the idea that he must constantly earn his claim
[Jefferson's] messages is uniformly deferential to Congress."
on the public's continuing deference. Such deference de-
So totally did Monroe subscribe to the doctrine of congres-
pends on clarity about ideas and principles-"the vision
sional supremacy, he was utterly silent on the burning issue
thing." That is why Bush's inarticulateness, although often
of the day, the admission of Missouri and the status of
comic, is not funny. It is not an esthetic but a philosophic
slavery in Louisiana Territory. Teddy Roosevelt and, even
failing. He does not say why he wants to be there, SO the
more, Woodrow Wilson asserted presidential supremacy by
public does not know why it should care if he gets his way.
invoking the mystique of the mandate. The nation, wrote
Until the public does, he won't. Congress will.
84 NEWSWEEK OCTOBER 22, 1990
Photocopy-Preservation
Essay
Charles Krauthammer
Can America Stand Alone?
as there ever been a more reluctant superpower than
in any counterinvasion of Kuwait. In Kuwait, as in Korea (our
H
America? Has any great power taken less pleasure in its
most recent exercise in collective security), if war comes it is
foreign adventures? I doubt it. As shown yet again in the Persian
America that will carry the fight. When the Iraqis complain
Gulf, the U.S. is the world leader, and Americans hate the job.
that the anti-Iraq coalition, the U.N. front, the whole multi-
The idea that the world is an arenà of unending conflict repels
lateral apparatus, is little more than a cover for an assertion of
Americans. It means that a superpower's work is never done.
American power, they exaggerate only slightly.
Don't we get time off? Just weeks after winning the cold
Nothing wrong with cover. It is nice to have. It is always
war, we face a new war in the gulf. Like Americans going off to
good to enter a conflict with lots of people cheering you on and
Korea just five years after V-J day, we feel uneasy, disappoint-
saying how noble your cause. It is still nicer to have others
ed. The more disturbed among us feel betrayed. They need to
standing on the front line with you, even though they are only a
conjure up some conspiracy, some alien force (Jews, imagines
token force.
the fevered Pat Buchanan) dragging us again to war.
Multilateralism is fine. But it carries two dangers. First, that
The reluctant superpower seeks an end to toil. Which is why
we will mistake illusion (world opinion, U.N. resolutions, pro-
Americans are endlessly resourceful in trying to evade the bur-
fessions of solidarity) for the real thing (American power), and
dens of history. First, there was the
assume that if we dispense with the
isolationism of the '20s and '30s.
Then, during the cold war, the
American left counseled abdica-
ILLUSTRATION
real thing, illusion will get us to
where we are going.
The second danger is that
tion, denying either that the cold
multi-lateralism will become a fe-
war existed or that it was anything
tish. The need to nurture it can ac-
more than a cozy arrangement to
tually become a hindrance to the
keep the Pentagon and the para-
exercise of real, effective power.
noid right happy.
There are voices arguing that the
Next, the cold war was won. In
U.S. should not do anything in the
the accompanying euphoria, the
gulf-undertake military action,
idea was born that having once
for example-that might jeopar-
again won the war to end all wars,
dize the grand coalition it has put
the U.S. could finally lay down its
together. This is to confuse means
burdens. Calls rang out for cutting
and ends. The coalition is a means
the defense budget in half by the
to getting Iraq out of Kuwait. It is
end of the decade. The New York-
not an end in itself. As long as the
er, with its unerring instinct for the
means serves the end, it is worth
politically trendy and the political-
having. If there comes a point at
ly stupid, suggested (quoting Dan-
which holding the coalition to-
iel Ellsberg) doing the 50% cut
gether prevents us from achieving
right now. In Congress the rush was on for wholesale Ameri-
the objective, then surely the objective takes precedence.
can demobilization. A reporter, complaining at a Feb. 12
The great danger with any collective action is that the more
White House press conference about "out of sync" defense
partners you have, the less you can do. U.N. resolutions, Securi-
spending, asked the President, "Who's the enemy?"
ty Council support, Soviet backing, allied troops and Japanese
Well, now we know. Saddam Hussein has reminded Amer-
money are all very welcome in this or any other American geo-
icans the world is a nasty place. Americans do not appreciate
political exertion. They are welcome but they cannot be made
"
the reminder. They find it hard to accept the fact that as the
essential. Otherwise, American policy becomes prisoner to its
planet's only remaining superpower, the U.S. is the one nation
partners' wishes. The more partners, the more wishes. Options
that can, and therefore must, face down the nasties.
become constrained, the chances of success diminished.
Hence the search for another way to avoid the crushing
The point of policy, after all, is success. It is not to feel good.
burdens of superpower responsibility. The search has borne
It is not international applause. It is not to hold coalitions for
fruit. The newest panacea for getting us off the hook has been
the sake of coalitions. It is to achieve ends. If coalitions help,
found: the U.N., multilateralism. collective security. Wood-
fine. Otherwise, they cannot be allowed to paralyze policy.
row Wilson's great dream that the world would respond to ag-
President Bush says it is not America against Iraq but the
gression by acting collectively rather than having to rely on a
world against Iraq. In fact, it is America, with some friends fol-
policeman (i.e., us) is finally coming true.
lowing carefully behind. Collective security is a diplomatic
What a dream. What an illusion.
myth: convenient to use, dangerous to believe.
What is happening in the gulf is not collective security but
History has been severe with America. After reluctantly
a coincidence of interests. And it is hardly collective. Without
joining and decisively winning the three great wars of this cen-
the U.S. leading, prodding, bribing and blackmailing, no one
tury (World War I, World War II and the cold war), America
would have stirred. Nothing would have been done: no embar-
is permitted no rest. It keeps getting stuck with the job not just
go, no Desert Shield. The world would have written off Kuwait
of protecting itself but of imposing order on a disorderly
the way the last body pledged to collective security, the
world. Collective security is only the latest myth seized upon
League of Nations, wrote off Abyssinia.
by Americans desperate to believe they have found their well-
Last week the commanders of both Egyptian and Syrian
deserved escape from the burdens of history.
forces in Saudi Arabia declared that they would not take part
Unfortunately, and unfairly, they have not.
96
TIME, OCTOBER 22, 1990
Photocopy-Preservation
NUTRITION
a diet to put gluttonous Americans to
shame A group of Emory University
The lean years
scientists, in The Paleolithic Prescrip-
tion, calculated that a Stone Age diet
provided five times the fiber, one
THE FAR SIDE cartoon by Gary Larson is reprinted by permission of Chronicle Features, San Francisco, Callf.
of early man
fourth the salt and half the fat of a
From the land that gave the West
contemporary. American diet. Even
moo shu pork, Peking duck and Si-
when they gorged on buffalo meat
chuan beef comes a warning: Don't
made up roughly a third of their calo-
eat them. The most encompassing
ries-early humans ate better In fat
study ever done on diet and health
content, wild game is closer to bass
examined 6,500 Chinese to serve up
than to beef Also, venison fat is
evidence that the less meat in the
largely unsaturated, so it is less in-
diet, the better-at least for Chinese
clined to raise cholesterol levels.
Though they eat 20 percent more cal-
Consumption of tender and fatty
ories than Americans for their size,
domesticated meat has surged only
Americans wind up 25 percent fatter,
since the Industrial Revolution and
partly because of meat consumption.
especially in the 20th century. With it
To Cornell University nutritionist
have surged ailments of affluence:
and study leader Dr. T. Colin Camp-
'Vegetarians return from the kill'.
Cancer and atherosclerosis. Such af-
bell, who will publish preliminary Te-
flictions were as rare for game-eating
sults next month, the data suggest
ing on chops for hundreds of thou
early hunters as they are for vegeta-
we were meant to be "a vegetarian-
sands of years What has changed is
ble eating Chinese. Despite the centu-
type species He would have a
the choice of side dishes, and the
ries and entree choices that divide the
tough time convincing anthropolo-
quality of the chops.
two groups, their lean, fibrous fare
gists. Homo sapiens has been chew-
Our hunter-gatherer ancestors had
makes them dietary cousins.
16
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, May 21, 1990
Photocopy-Preservation
"This would have to all be done in a half hour." said a White House official, "which means the
analysis. President's speech could only be 12 to 13 minutes."
Reverend Jesse Jackson could get caught up in the net of ongoing Investigations John into Foreign the
The BCGI scandal, as one of the original defendants prepares to testify before Senator Kerry's Jackson's
Relations IS expected to come up in the testimony of Nazir Chinoy, one of the original defendants the
Subcommittee on Terrorism. Narcotics, and International Operations tomorrow. of 1988
name BCCI indictments. Sources report Nazir, who plead guilty. is angling for a reduced sentence by
cooperating with authorities like Senator Kerry and that his testimony could be related to allegations that
Jackson received over $10.000 in hotel expenses paid by Nazir or other BCCI associates. There are
reports that Jackson, like former President Jimmy Carter. Robert Altman, Clark Clifford. and former
Atlanta Mayor Andrew Young. may have been introduced to BCCI operatives by Bert Lance. former OMB
Director under Carter. Nazir was the regional manager for BCCI's European and African activities and
operated out of Paris. He was indicted for his role in laundering the proceeds from sales of cocaine
through BCCI and later plead guilty. He is the highest ranking BCCI official U.S. custody.
In today's primaries, the most interesting contest on the ballot may be in Illinois, but not on the
Presidential front. In an example of how quickly one's political fortunes can change, Senator Alan Dixon
is fighting for his political life today as Democratic voters in Illinois decide whether or not the two-term
Senator deserves his party's nomination this year. Just a few months ago, the consensus among most
political analysts in Washington was that Dixon was untouchable. Dixon is opposed by attorney AI
Hofeld. whose late surge some think could be enough to beat Dixon, and Carol Mosely-Braun, the Cook
County recorder of Deeds who IS expected to do well in Chicago's Black precincts. Earlier in the
campaign season, The Democratic State Party of Illinois took an unusual step in refusing to endorse
incumbent Dixon because the race was a contested primary. Whether or not Dixon survives, some
Republican observers are poised to interpret the verdict as a "win-win" situation for the GOP. speculating
that even if Dixon hangs on to win today's primary, he will be "bloodied and broke." The winner of today's
Democratic primary will face Republican Rich Williamson, a former Reagan White House official with
extensive contacts in the Bush Administration and GOP financial circles.
Some in the White House are concerned that the President's current re-election themes of family,
jobs and peace are not catching fire with the electorate. To promote these themes, Bush has made
welfare reform and educational choice two of his major topics during his campaign addresses, but there
IS a growing sense that these words alone are not providing nearly enough of a reason for voters to justify
giving Bush another term. "That does not exactly catch fire anywhere." said a White House official in
referring to the current stump speech. The official added: "[Welfare and education reform] show up in
the speeches, but there ain't no meat on those bones yet." The officials report that the newly organized
White House policy shop is working to develop an "active element" to the themes, by providing new
initiatives which would include goals to be achieved in the President's second term. The President
provided a good example of his current campaign rhetoric late last night in Chicago. Bush told the
audience at a Bush-Quayle fundraising dinner: "America was built on family and faith and freedom and
these form the foundation of our great country and we must now renew those sources of our strength.
And we must. for example, allow common sense to prevail in our welfare system. We've got to forge a
new connection between welfare and work. And when Chicago, the city that works, finds that 17 percent
of its population dependent on welfare. something's wrong. Americans aren't cold hearted. We're a
caring people. Americans support welfare for families in need, but Americans want to see government
at every level work together to track down the deadbeat dads, the ones who can't be bothered to pay
child support, and they want to see us break this cycle of dependency that destroys dignity and passes
down poverty from one generation to the next. That's wrong. That's cruel. And I'll tell you this: We are
working hard to change it. My Administration will continue to encourage the states to innovate with plans
that help people break welfare dependency and begin learning work skills. Here's another way that we
2
FASHION
Armani's
New Wo
Order
Dan-
Agreat concept,
The Milanese maestro takes on
hanging by a thread.
sweatshirts and slouch socks in
his new A/X shop-the prototype
for a major nationwide chain
that
J
05
Resmier
Straight leg.
natural
REAR
Faller from
14
Seeg seat
Straight
44 LEAR'S / APRIL 1992
Pol
John Lewis Gaddis
THE POST-COLD WAR WORLD 103
understand, and so doing prepared the way for the more
TOWARD THE POST-COLD WAR WORLD
sophisticated strategy of containment that was soon to follow.
The end of the Cold War was too sweeping a defeat for
F
totalitarianism-and too sweeping a victory for democracy-
for this old geopolitical map to be of use any longer. But
or the first time in over half a century, no single great
another form of competition has been emerging that could be
power, or coalition of powers, poses a "clear and present
just as stark and just as pervasive as was the rivalry between
danger" to the national security of the United States. The end
democracy and totalitarianism at the height of the Cold War:
of the Cold War has left Americans in the fortunate position of
it is the contest between forces of integration and fragmenta-
being without an obvious major adversary. Given the costs of
tion in the contemporary international environment. The
confronting adversaries who have been all too obvious since
search for a new geopolitical cartography might well begin
the beginning of World War II, that is a condition worthy of
here.
greater appreciation than it has so far received.
II
It would be foolish to claim, though, that the United States
after 1991 can return to the role it played in world affairs
I use the term "integration" in its most general sense, which
before 1941. For as the history of the 1930s suggests, the
is the act of bringing things together to constitute something
absence of imminent threat is no guarantee that threats do not
that is whole. It involves breaking down barriers that have
exist. Nor will the isolationism of that era be possible in the
historically separated nations and peoples in such diverse areas
1990s. Advances in military technology and the progress of
as politics, economics, religion, technology and culture. It
economic integration have long since removed the insulation
means, quite literally, the approach to what we might call-
from the rest of the world that geographical distance used to
echoing some of the most visionary language of World War
II-one world.
provide. The passing of the Cold War world by no means
implies an end to American involvement in whatever world is
Integration is happening in a variety of ways. Consider, first,
the communications revolution, which has made it impossible
to follow; it only means that the nature and the extent of that
for any nation to deny its citizens knowledge of what is going
involvement are not yet clear.
on elsewhere. This is a new condition in international politics,
Finding one's way through unfamiliar terrain generally
the importance of which became clear as revolution swept
requires a map of some sort. Cartography, like cognition
through eastern Europe in the fall of 1989. A new kind of
itself, is a necessary simplification that allows us to see where
domino theory has emerged, in which the achievement of
we are, and where we may be going. The assertion that the
liberty in one country causes repressive regimes to topple, or at
world was divided between the forces of democracy and those
least to wobble, in others. Integration through communica-
of totalitarianism-to use the precise distinction made in
tions has largely brought this about.
President Harry S. Truman's announcement of the Truman
Consider, next, economics. These days, no nation-not even
Doctrine-was of course a vast simplification of what was
the Soviet Union, or China, or South Africa or Iraq-can
actually happening in 1947. But it was probably a necessary
maintain itself apart from the rest of the world for very long.
one: it was an exercise in geopolitical cartography that
That is because individual nations depend, for their own
depicted the international landscape in terms everyone could
prosperity, upon the prosperity of others to a far greater
extent than in the past. Integration also means that transna-
tional actors like multinational corporations and economic
John Lewis Gaddis is Distinguished Professor of History and Director of
cartels can have a powerful influence on what happens to
the Contemporary History Institute at Ohio University. This article is
national states. And in Europe, integration has led to the
adapted from a longer essay in the forthcoming book, American Defense
creation of a potential new superpower in the form of the
Annual: 1991-1992.
European Community (EC). Europe as a whole, not just Brit-
104 FOREIGN AFFAIRS
THE POST-COLD WAR WORLD 105
ain, France or Germany, is already a major player in the world
by-product of integration since 1945 has indeed been peace, at
economy, and it may soon become one in world politics as well.
least among the great powers. The prosperity associated with
Consider, as a third manifestation of integration, security. It
market economics tends to encourage the growth of liberal
used to be the case that nations relied exclusively upon their
democracies; and one of the few patterns that holds up
own strength to ensure their safety, and that is still primarily
throughout modern history is that liberal democracies do not
the case. But Woodrow Wilson began the movement toward
go to war with one another.2 From this perspective, then, the
collective security after World War I with his proposal for a
old nineteenth-century liberal vision of a peaceful, integrated,
League of Nations, and although that organization proved
interdependent and capitalist world may at last be coming
ineffective, it did give rise to a United Nations that in recent
true.
years has become a major force in international diplomacy. It
is significant that the United States waited to gain U.N.
III
approval before using force in the Persian Gulf. Washington
Would that it were so. Unfortunately, the forces of integra-
has not always been so solicitous in the past, and the fact that
tion are not the only ones active in the world today. There are
the Bush administration proceeded in this way suggests that it
also forces of fragmentation at work that are resurrecting old
has come to see important advantages in the collective ap-
barriers between nations and peoples-and creating new
proach, which is to say the integrative approach, to security.
ones-even as others are tumbling. Some of these forces have
Then consider the integration of ideas. The combination of
begun to manifest themselves with unexpected strength, just
easy communications, unprecedented prosperity and freedom
when it looked as though integration was about to prevail. The
from war-which is, after all, the combination the Cold War
most important of them is nationalism.
gave us-made possible yet another integrationist phenome-
There is, to be sure, nothing new about nationalism. Given
non: ideas now flow more freely throughout the world than
that the past half century has seen the number of sovereign
ever before. This trend has had a revolutionary effect in
states more than triple, it can hardly be said that nationalism
certain authoritarian countries, where governments found
was in a state of suspended animation during the Cold War.
they had to educate their populations in order to continue to
Still, many observers did have the sense that, among the great
compete in a global economy, only to discover that the act of
powers at least, nationalism after World War II had been on
educating them exposed their minds to the realm of ideas and
the wane.
ultimately worked to undermine the legitimacy of authoritar-
The very existence of two rival superpowers, which is really
ianism itself.¹ The consequences can be seen in Chinese
to say, two supranational powers, created this impression. We
students who prefer statues of liberty to statues of Mao, in
rarely thought of the Cold War as a conflict between compet-
Soviet parliamentarians who routinely harangue their own
leaders on national television and in the remarkable sight of
ing Soviet and American nationalism: we saw it, rather, as a
contest between two great international ideologies, or between
the current president of Czechoslovakia-himself a living
two antagonistic military blocs, or between two geographical
symbol of the power of ideas-lecturing the Congress of the
regions we imprecisely labeled "East" and "West." One could
United States on the virtues of Jeffersonian democracy.
even argue that the Cold War discouraged nationalism, par-
Finally, consider peace. It has long been a central assump-
ticularly in western Europe and the Mediterranean, where the
tion of liberal political philosophers that if only one could
mutual need to contain the Soviet Union moderated old
maximize the flow of ideas, commodities, capital and people
animosities like those between the French and the Germans, or
across international boundaries, then the causes of war would
the Greeks and the Turks, or the British and everybody else.
drop away. It was for a long time an idea based more on faith
Much the same thing happened, although by different and
than on reality. But there is some reason to think that a
2 Michael Doyle, "Kant, Liberal Legacies, and Foreign Affairs," Philosophy and Public Affairs,
See Theodore S. Hamerow, From the Finland Station: The Graying of Revolution in the
Summer/Fall 1983, pp. 205-35, 323-35; also Doyle, "Liberalism and World Politics," American
Twentieth Century; New York: Basic Books, 1990, pp. 210-25, 300-9.
Political Science Review, December 1986, pp. 1151-69.
106 FOREIGN AFFAIRS
THE POST-COLD WAR WORLD 107
more brutal means, in eastern Europe, where Moscow used
the Warsaw Pact to suppress long-simmering feuds between
may be. They also show up in the field of economics, where
the Hungarians and the Romanians, or the Czechs and the
they manifest themselves as protectionism: the effort, by
Poles, or the (East) Germans and everybody else. Nationalism
various means, to insulate individual economies from the
might still exist in other parts of the world, we used to tell each
workings of world market forces. They show up in the racial
other, but it had become a historical curiosity in Europe.
tension that can develop, both among states and within them:
There were even those who argued, until quite recently, that
the recent killings of blacks by blacks in South Africa, after the
the Germans had become such good Europeans that they
release of Nelson Mandela, illustrates the problem clearly.
were now virtually immune to nationalist appeals and so had
They certainly show up in the area of religion. The resur-
lost whatever interest they might once have had in reunifica-
gence of Islam might be seen by some as an integrationist force
tion.
in the Middle East. But it is surely fragmentationist to the
Today the situation looks very different. Germany has
extent that it seeks to set that particular region off from the
reunified, and no one-particularly no one living alongside
rest of the world by reviving ancient and not-so-ancient
that new state-is quite sure of the consequences. Romanians
grievances against the West, both real and imagined. Forces of
and Hungarians threaten each other regularly now that the
fragmentation can even show up as a simple drive for power,
Warsaw Pact is defunct, and nationalist sentiments are mani-
which is the only way I can make sense out of the fiendishly
festing themselves elsewhere in eastern and southeastern
complex events that have torn Lebanon apart since the civil
Europe, particularly in Yugoslavia, which appears to be on the
war began there in 1975. One can look at Beirut as it has been
verge of breaking up.
for the past decade and a half and get a good sense of what the
The same thing could even happen to the Soviet Union
world would look like if the forces of fragmentation should
itself: nationalist pressures the regime thought it had smoth-
ultimately have their way.
ered as far back as seven decades ago are coming to the
Fragmenting tendencies are also on the rise-they have
forefront once again, to such an extent that we can no longer
never been wholly absent-within American society itself. It
take for granted the continued existence of that country in the
would be difficult to underestimate the disintegrative effects of
form that we have known it.
the drug crisis in this country, or of the breakdown of our
Nor should we assume that the West is immune from the
system for elementary and secondary education, or of the
fragmenting effects of nationalism. The Irish question ought
emergence of what appears to be a permanent social and
to be a perpetual reminder of their durability; there is also the
economic "underclass." Well-intentioned efforts to decrease
Basque problem in Spain, and the rivalry between the Flem-
racial and sexual discrimination have increased racial and
ings and the Walloons in Belgium. The American presence in
sexual-as well as constitutional-tensions.® Linguistic anxi-
the Philippines is becoming increasingly tenuous in the face of
eties lurk just beneath the surface, as the movement to make
growing nationalism, and similar pressures are building in
English the official language of the United States suggests.
South Korea. Nationalism is even becoming an issue in Japan,
Immigration may well be increasing at a faster rate than
what with recent controversies over the treatment of World
cultural assimilation, which in itself has been a less than perfect
War II in Japanese history textbooks and the Shinto ceremo-
process. Regional rivalries are developing over such issues as
nies that officially began the reign of the Emperor Akihito. It
energy costs, pollution control and the bailout of the savings
is worth recalling as well how close the Canadian confedera-
and loan industry. And the rise of special interest groups,
tion came in 1990 to breaking up-as it yet may-over the
together with their ability to apply instant pressure through
separatist aspirations of Quebec. There was even a point last
instant communications, has thrown American politics into
year when the Mohawk Indians were demanding, from Que-
such disarray that elections are reduced to the unleashing of
bec no less, recognition of their own rights as a sovereign state.
attack videos, and the preparation of the budget has come to
But the forces of fragmentation do not just take the form of
pressures for self-determination, formidable though those
3 See "Race on "Campus," The New Republic, Feb. 18, 1991; also Dinesh D'Souza, "Illiberal
Education," The Attantic, March 1991, pp. 51-79.
108 FOREIGN AFFAIRS
THE POST-COLD WAR WORLD 109
resemble the endless haggling of rug merchants in some
favor of either integrationist or fragmentationist
Oriental bazaar. When the leading light of American conser-
alternatives-could be a mistake.
vatism has to call for a return to a sense of collective interest,
Consider the long-term ecological problems we are likely to
then the forces of fragmentation have proceeded very far
face. The prospect of global warming looms as a constraint
indeed.4
upon future economic development conducted in
All of this suggests that the problems we will confront in the
traditional-which is to say, polluting-ways. Integration
post-Cold War world are more likely to arise from competing
here, in the form of expanding industrialization and enhanced
processes-integration versus fragmentation-than from the
agricultural productivity, has created a new kind of danger.
kinds of competing ideological visions that dominated the
The worldwide AIDS epidemic illustrates how one integrative
Cold War. Unlike the old rivalry between democracy and
force, the increasing flow of people across international
totalitarianism, though, the new geopolitical cartography pro-
boundaries, can undermine the effects of another, which is the
vides no immediately obvious answer to the question of which
progress made toward the conquest of disease. Population
of these processes might most threaten the future security
pressure, itself the result of progress in agricultural produc-
interests of the United States.
tivity and in conquering disease, is in turn magnifying dispar-
IV
ities in living standards that already exist in certain parts of the
world, with potentially disintegrative results. The forces of
It would appear, at first glance, that the forces of integration
integration, therefore, provide no automatic protection
ought to be the more benign. Those forces brought the Cold
against ecological threats: indeed, they are part of the prob-
War to an end. They provided the basis for the relative
lem. Despite classical liberal assumptions, we would be unwise
prosperity that most of the developed world enjoyed during
in assuming that an ever-increasing flow of people, commod-
that conflict, and they offer the most plausible method of
ities and technology across international borders will necessar-
extending that prosperity into the post-Cold War era. They
ily, at least from the ecological standpoint, make the world a
combine materialism and idealism in a way that seems natural
safer place.
to Americans, who tend to combine these traits in their own
Consider, next, the future of Europe. The reunification of
national character. And they hold out the promise of an
Germany, together with the enfeeblement and possible
international order in which collective, not unilateral, security
becomes the norm.
breakup of the Soviet Union, is one of the most abrupt
realignments of political, military and economic power in
But is the trend toward integration consistent with the
modern history. It has come about largely as a result of those
traditional American interest, dating back to the Founding
integrative forces that ended the Cold War: the much-
Fathers, in the balancing of power? Has that interest become
celebrated triumph of democratic politics and market econom-
obsolete in the new world that we now confront? The long-
ics.⁵ And yet, this victory for liberalism in Europe is producing
standing American commitment to the balance of power was
both integrative and disintegrative consequences. In Germany,
based on the assumption that the nation would survive most
demands for self-determination have brought political inte-
comfortably in a world of diversity, not uniformity: in a
gration, to be sure, but the economic effects could be disinte-
homogeneous world, presumably, one would not need to
balance power at all. No one would claim that the progress of
grative. There are concerns now over whether the progress
integration has brought us anywhere close to such a world.
the EC has made toward removing trade and immigration
barriers will be sufficient to tie the newly unified Germany
Still, the contradiction that exists between the acts of balancing
firmly to the West; or whether the new Germany will build its
and integrating power ought to make us look carefully at the
own center of power further to the east, with the risk that this
post-Cold War geopolitical map. Jumping to conclusions-in
might undo the anticipated benefits of 1992.
4 William F. Buckley, Jr., Gratitude: Reflections On What We Owe To Our Country, New York:
Random House, 1990.
5 An extreme, but prominent, example of such celebration is Francis Fukuyama, "The End
of History?" The National Interest, Summer 1989, pp. 3-18.
110 FOREIGN AFFAIRS
THE POST-COLD WAR WORLD 111
In the Soviet Union, the triumph of liberalism has had
profoundly disintegrative consequences. The central govern-
rather, by exploiting an important consequence of integration,
ment faces the possibility of becoming irrelevant as power
which is the inability or unwillingness of highly industrialized
diffuses down to the level of the republics, and even below. No
states to control what their own entrepreneurs, even those
one knows what the future political configuration, to say
involved in the sale of lethal commodities, do to turn a profit.
nothing of ideological orientation, of the potential successor
The global energy market-another integrationist
phenomenon-created the riches that made Kuwait such a
states might be. Civil war, and even international war growing
tempting target in the first place; it also brought about the
out of civil war, are by no means unrealistic prospects; such
dependence on Middle Eastern oil that caused so rapid a
disruptions would be all the more dangerous because the
military response on the part of the United States, its allies and
Soviet Union's massive arsenal of nuclear and conventional
even some of their former adversaries. The eagerness of this
weapons will not disappear, even if the Soviet Union itself
improbable coalition to defend the principle of collective
does.⁶ The future of Europe, in short, is not at all clear, and it
security would hardly have been as great if Benin had attacked
is the increasing tension between processes of integration and
Burkina Faso, or vice versa.
fragmentation that has suddenly made the picture there so
There is, of course, no assurance that Saddam Hussein
cloudy.
would have refrained from invading Kuwait if the Cold War
Then consider the Middle East and Africa. The combination
had been at its height. But there is a fair chance that either the
of German reunification with Soviet collapse, if it occurs, will
United States or the Soviet Union-depending upon which
involve the most dramatic changes in international boundaries
superpower Iraq was aligned with at the time-would have
since the end of World War II. And yet no one seems to be
sought to exert a restraining influence, if only to keep its
thinking about what precedents this might set for other parts
principal rival from exploiting the situation to its own advan-
of the world where boundaries inherited from the colonial era
tage. Certainly distractions associated with the end of the Cold
do not even come close to coinciding with patterns of ethnicity,
War in Europe during the first half of 1990 prevented both
nationality or religion. If the Lithuanians are to get their own
Washington and Moscow from giving the attention they
state, it will not be easy to explain to the Palestinians or the
should have to Persian Gulf affairs.
Kurds or the Eritreans why they should not have theirs also. If
It is also worth remembering that the first post-Cold War
the boundaries of the dying Soviet empire are to be revised,
year saw, in addition to the Iraqi occupation of Kuwait, the
then why should boundaries established by empires long since
near-outbreak of war between India and Pakistan, an intensifi-
dead be preserved?
cation of tension between Israel and its Arab neighbors, a
Finally, consider the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. It was Iraq's
renewed Syrian drive to impose control over Lebanon and a
integration into the international market in sophisticated mil-
violent civil war in Liberia. Conflict in the Third World, it
itary technology that made it possible for Saddam Hussein to
appears, is not going to go away just because the Cold War has;
perform this act of aggression. His arsenal of chemical and
indeed it may well intensify.
biological weapons, to say nothing of his surface-to-air-
Finally, consider one other form of regional conflict that is
missiles, Scuds, Mirages, the nuclear weapons he probably
likely to affect the post-Cold War era: it is what we might call
would have had if the Israelis had not bombed his reactor in
the "post-Marxist revolution" crisis. The most potent revolu-
1981 and the long-range artillery he certainly would have had
tionary force in the Third World these days may well be
if the British had not become suspicious of his orders for very
democracy. But it is no clearer there than it is in Europe that
thick "oil pipes" early in 1990-all of this hardware was not
this supposedly integrative "triumph of liberalism" will neces-
forged by ingenious and self-reliant Iraqi craftsmen, working
sarily promote peace. For just as the United States used to
tirelessly along the banks of the Euphrates. Saddam obtained it,
justify its intervention in Third World countries as a means of
"inoculating" them against the "bacillus" of communism, so
The depressing possibilities are well summarized in George F. Kennan, "Communism in
the post-Cold War era could see military interventions by the
Russian History," Foreign Affairs, Winter 1990/91, pp. 182-84.
old democracies for the purpose of confirming in power-or
112 FOREIGN AFFAIRS
THE POST-COLD WAR WORLD 113
restoring to power-new democracies. The violent, but over-
whelmingly popular, American military operation to appre-
finance the budgetary, energy and trade deficits Americans
hend General Manuel Antonio Noriega in Panama could well
incur through their unwillingness to make even minimal
portend things to come.
sacrifices in living standards.
Threats can arise, though, not only from external sources;
Whatever the causes of this situation, the long-term effects
for the way in which a nation chooses to respond to threats
cannot be healthy ones. Americans will not indefinitely serve as
can, under certain circumstances, pose as much of a danger to
"mercenaries" overseas, especially when the troops recruited
its long-term interests as do developments beyond its borders.
in that capacity come, as they disproportionately do, from the
less fortunate social, economic and educational classes. Resent-
The United States did not have to involve itself, to the extent
that it did, in the Vietnam War. It did not have to become as
ment over this pattern-when it develops-is likely to under-
dependent as it has on foreign oil. It did not have to accumu-
mine whatever foreign policy consensus may yet remain.
Pressures will eventually build for all Americans to bear their
late such massive budget deficits that the government will have
no choice but to allocate a significant percentage of its reve-
fair share of all the burdens that are involved in being a world
power, and that may considerably diminish the attractions of
nues, well into the 21st century, to paying off the accumulated
continuing to be one.
debt. All of these were decisions Americans made, not their
The end of the Cold War, therefore, brings not an end to
adversaries; yet their consequences have constrained, and in
threats, but rather a diffusion of them: one can no longer
the case of energy dependency and the national debt, will
plausibly point to a single source of danger, as one could
continue to constrain, American freedom of action in the
throughout most of that conflict, but dangers there still will be.
world for years to come.
The architects of containment, when they confronted the
These problems evolved from a curious unevenness that
struggle between democracy and totalitarianism in 1947, knew
exists within the United States these days in the willingness to
which side they were on; the post-Cold War geopolitical
bear pain. Americans have readily accepted pain in connection
cartography, however, provides no comparable clarity. In one
with their integrative role as a global peacekeeper. They have
sense, this represents progress. The very absence of clear and
repeatedly sent troops and resources overseas for the purpose
present danger testifies to American success in so balancing
of resisting aggression, even in situations where the probability
power during the past four and a half decades that totalitari-
of an attack was remote and where the states they were
anism, at least in the forms we have considered threatening
defending did not always see fit to contribute proportionately
throughout most of this century, is now defunct. But, in
to their own defense. The United States has been unwilling to
another sense, the new competition between the forces of
accept even moderate pain, though, when it comes either to
integration and fragmentation presents us with difficult
raising the taxes necessary to support the government expen-
choices, precisely because it is by no means as clear as it was
ditures its citizens demand, or to cutting back on those
during the Cold War which tendency we should want to see
expenditures to bring them into line with the taxes its citizens
prevail.
are willing to pay. The United States is generous, even
profligate, with its military manpower and hardware, but it is
V
selfish to the point of irresponsibility when it comes to issues of
Examine, first, the most extreme alternatives. A fully inte-
lifestyle and pocketbook. As a result, a kind of division of
grated world would be one in which individual countries
labor has developed within the international community, in
would lose control of their borders and would be dependent
which the United States contributes the troops and the weap-
on others for critical resources, capital and markets. It would
onry needed to sustain the balance of power, while its allies
mean, therefore, a progressive loss of national sovereignty,
and ultimately the loss of whatever remained of national
7 James Chace has suggested, persuasively in my view, that this attitude goes back to
identity. A fully fragmented world would approximate the
Lyndon Johnson's attempt to fight the Vietnam War without asking for sacrifices on the home
front. See his Solvency: The Price of Survival, New York: Random House, 1981, p. 15.
Hobbesian state of anarchy that theorists of international
relations assume exists but that, in practice, never has: the
THE POST-COLD WAR WORLD 115
114 FOREIGN AFFAIRS
world would be reduced to a gaggle of quarreling principali-
fought to the point of total victory for the West. Fortunately
ties, with war or the threat of war as the only means of settling
victory, this time, did not require a war. The trouble with
disputes among them. Both of these extremes-for these are
victory, though, is that it tends to produce power imbalances.
obviously caricatures-would undermine the international
It was precisely to avoid this danger that the peacemakers of
state system as we now know it: the first by submerging the
1815 and 1945, who designed the two most durable peace
autonomy of states within a supranational economic order; the
settlements of modern times, moved quickly after their respec-
second by so shattering state authority as to render it impotent.
tive triumphs to rehabilitate defeated adversaries and to invite
No one seriously claims that, with the end of the Cold War,
them back into the international state system. Perhaps because
we can abandon the international state system or relinquish
the communist regimes of the Soviet Union and eastern
national sovereignty: not even our most visionary visionaries
Europe have not actually suffered a military defeat-and also
are prepared to go that far. This suggests, therefore, that the
because of recent distractions in the Persian Gulf-we in the
United States and its allies retain the interest they have always
West are not focusing as carefully as we should on the
had in the balancing of power, but that this time the power to
problems of reconstruction and reintegration in that part of
be balanced is less that of states or ideologies than of the
the world. But should fragmentationist forces prevail there,
processes-transcending states and ideologies-that are tend-
the resulting anarchy-and mass emigration away from
ing toward integrationist and fragmentationist extremes. In-
anarchy-could destabilize any number of power balances.
stead of balancing the forces of democracy against those of
The situation then would certainly command our attention,
totalitarianism, the new task may well be to balance the forces
even if it does not now.
of integration and fragmentation against each other:
The peoples of the Soviet Union and eastern Europe will of
What would this mean in practical terms? In the best of all
course have to bear the principal burdens of reconstruction.
possible worlds, of course, it would require taking no action at
But they will not be able to accomplish this task alone, and
all, because integrationist and fragmentationist forces would
already discouragement and demoralization have set in among
balance themselves. Unfortunately, though, in the imperfect
them. It is in dealing with this kind of despair that aid from the
world in which we live things rarely work out this neatly. Gaps
"West"-including Japan-can have its greatest impact. A
generally exist between what one wants to have happen and
multinational Marshall Plan for former communist states
what seems likely to happen; it is here that the choices of
sounds impractical given the extent of the problem and the
states-and of the leaders who govern them-make a differ-
existence of competing priorities at home, but the "highly
leveraged". character of that earlier and highly successful
ence. These choices in the post-Cold War world are likely to
enterprise ought not to be forgotten. The Marshall Plan
center on those areas in which integrationist and fragmenta-
worked by employing small amounts of economic assistance to
tionist forces are not now balanced; where the triumph of one
produce large psychological effects. It restored self-confidence
over the other could upset the international stability upon
in Europe just at the point, some two to three years after the
which rest the security interests of the United States, its allies,
end of the war, at which it was sagging. What was critical was
and other like-minded states; and where action is therefore
not so much the extent of the aid provided as its timing, its
needed to restore equilibrium. They are likely to include the
targeting and its publicity: its main purpose was to shift the
expectations of its recipients from the belief that things could
following:
only get worse to the conviction that they would eventually get
better.
The Soviet Union and eastern Europe.
Over the next decade, the most serious source of instability
It will serve no one's interests in the West now, anymore
in world politics will probably be the political, economic and
than it would have served the interests of the victorious allies
social fragmentation that is already developing where commu-
after World War II, to allow despair, demoralization and
nism has collapsed. Marxism-Leninism could hardly have
disintegration to prevail in the territories of defeated Cold
suffered a more resounding defeat if World War III had been
War adversaries, What happened: in Germany after World
116 FOREIGN AFFAIRS
War I ought to provide a sufficiently clear warning of the
consequences that can follow when victors neglect the interests
It's hard to "stay the course" when
of those they have vanquished, and thereby, in the long run,
neglect their own.
the course keeps changing.
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THE POST-COLD WAR WORLD 117
collapse of the U.S.S.R.-that are already evident.⁸
The United States has used its influence, over the years, to
favor integration over fragmentation in Europe; indeed with-
out that influence, it is difficult to see how integration. could
have proceeded as far as it has. But Americans cannot expect
to maintain the authority the Cold War gave them on the
The
continent for very much longer, especially now that the Soviet
European
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Magazine
consider what new or modified integrative structures might
Main topics in the current April/May issue:
replace the role that the United States-and, by very different
means, its former adversaries-played in "freezing" disinte-
Europe will write the rules of trade - Lester C. Thurow
grative forces in Europe during the Cold War. Otherwise,
Peace is tough for the arms industry - Ian Anthony and Herbert Wulp
serious imbalances could develop in that part of the world as
Blueprint for GATT compromise - Aart de Zeeuw
well.
Deterring aggression.
Two flags over Jerusalem? - Hans Küng
One thing the Cold War did was to make the use of force by
Israel's brief honeymoon - Michael Wolffsohn
the great powers against one another virtually unthinkable. It
created inducements that caused states to seek to resolve
peacefully-or even to learn to live with-accumulated griev-
The Baltics and the West - Egil Levits
ances that could easily, prior to 1945, have provoked major
wars. It did this by appealing more to fear than to logic, but
Other topics:
patterns of behavior that arise out of fear can, in time, come to
The remedial war . The art of travel; Hans Dietrich Genscher, the king of
seem quite logical. Few today would question the desirability of
globetrotters @ Max Gallo: Money is the driving force of modern politics 0 Pitfalls of
perpetuating, and if necessary reinforcing, the inhibitions that
romanticism; What France should do in the Middle East . Country report; Doubt
arose, during the postwar decades, against once violent pat-
creeps into Swiss hearts.
terns of great power behavior.
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the great powers. The need to do this is urgent because the
No other publication reveals so searchingly
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the dynamics of evolving Europe
management regime the United States and the Soviet Union
have relied upon in the past to keep such regional conflicts
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118 FOREIGN AFFAIRS
THE POST-COLD WAR WORLD 119
1945 because of the great power rivalries that produced the
are shaping our world intersect with one another, and about
Cold War. None of these difficulties exist today. The world has
where our own security interests with respect to these lie.
a third chance to give Wilson's plan the fair test it has never
Certainly there is much to be said, from a strictly economic
received, and fate has even provided an appropriate occasion:
perspective, in favor of reducing barriers to trade, investment
successful U.N. action to restore Kuwaiti independence sets a
and even labor flows across international boundaries if the
powerful example that could advance us some distance toward
result is to maximize production, minimize prices and ensure
bringing the conduct of international relations within the
that consumer needs are satisfied. But what if the result is also
framework of international law that has long existed alongside
to allow despots easy access to sophisticated military technol-
it, but too often apart from it.⁹
ogy, or to increase the West's reliance on energy resources it
Can such a legalistic vision sustain the realistic security
does not control? Do market principles require that we wel-
interests of the United States? Whether rightly or wrongly, the
come on a continuing basis the dispatch of troops to safeguard
answer was negative after World Wars I and II; but Americans
critical supplies halfway around the world? There are political
have reasons, this time, for giving a more positive reply. The
costs to be paid for economic integration, and we are only now
"long peace" that was the Cold War has already created in the
beginning to realize what they are.
practice of the great powers mechanisms for deterring aggres-
These issues are only part of the much larger problem of
sion that have worked remarkably well: these did not exist
how one balances the advantages of economic integration
prior to 1945. There could be real advantages now in codify-
against its political and social disadvantages. Are Americans
ing and extending this behavior as widely as possible. The
really sure, for example, that they want to integrate their own
evolution of a new world order designed to deter aggression
economy into the world market if the result of doing that is to
could ensure that the most important benefits of the "long
shut down industries they have historically relied upon for
peace" survive the demise of the Cold War. It could also
both jobs and national defense? When the effects of integra-
counteract the dangerous conviction, which American leaders
tion are to transform once-diversified industrial complexes
still at times appear to hold, that only the United States has the
into strings of fast-food outlets and shopping malls, with the
will and the capacity to take the lead in policing (or nannying)
reduction in wages that kind of employment normally brings,
one can hardly expect people to be out in the streets cheering
the world.
for them, however ingenious the rationalizations of our pro-
fessional economists.
Finding appropriate limits of interdependence.
The Iraqi invasion of Kuwait raises another issue, though,
Increasing labor mobility, together with the liberalized im-
migration policies that facilitate it, provides yet another exam-
that will involve more difficult choices: it has to do with just
ple of how economic integration could produce political frag-
how far we want economic integration to proceed. The pur-
mentation. There are undeniable advantages in allowing
pose of having global markets is to ensure prosperity, not to
immigration, not just because it provides cheap labor but also
compromise national sovereignty. And yet, it was the interna-
because in some instances the host nation can gain a diverse
tional market in oil and armaments that made it possible for
array of sophisticated skills as a result. But immigration also
Saddam Hussein to violate Kuwaiti sovereignty. Economic
risks altering national identity, and the forces of integration
integration, in this instance, produced literal political frag-
have by no means advanced to the point at which one can
mentation. This unexpected and dangerous juxtaposition sug-
dismiss concerns over that issue as anachronistic. 10 As a nation
gests strongly the need to think, more seriously than we have
of immigrants, the United States handles problems of cultural
to this point, about how the economic and political forces that
assimilation more easily than most nations. Still, they are real
9 For an eloquent discussion of the advantages adherence to international law can offer,
10 William H. McNeill sets this problem within a long-term historical context in "Winds of
see Daniel Patrick Moynihan, On the Law of Nations, Cambridge: Harvard University Press,
Change," in Nicholas X. Rizopoulos, ed., Sea-Changes: American Foreign Policy in a World
1990.
Transformed, New York: Council on Foreign Relations Press, 1990, pp. 184-87.
120 FOREIGN AFFAIRS
THE POST-COLD WAR WORLD 121
problems, and they exist on a world-wide scale. Attempts to
than Eisenhower himself to see the extent to which Americans
write them off as reflections of an antiquated "nationalism," or
even "racism," are not likely to make them go away.
now finance the costs of defense-as well as everything else-
What all of this suggests, therefore, is that we need better
on credit extended by the unborn (who cannot object to the
process) and by foreigners (who someday may).
mechanisms for balancing the processes of integration and
A return to solvency in its broadest sense-by which I mean
fragmentation at those points at which economic forces inter-
not just balanced budgets but bearing the full pain of what one
sect those of politics and culture. The increasing permeability
is doing at the time one is doing it-might discipline our
of boundaries is going to be an important characteristic of the
conception of the national interest in the way that it should be
post-Cold War world, and it would be a great mistake to
disciplined: through the constantly annoying, but also intellec-
assume-as market principles encourage us to assume-that
tually bracing, demands of stringency. The result might well
in such an environment an "invisible hand" will always pro-
be less grandiose visions, but more sustainable policies.
duce the greatest benefits for the greatest number. As in most
other areas, an equilibrium will be necessary: if imbalances of
VI
power are not to develop, then a certain amount of protec-
Which is going to win-integration or fragmentation? At
tionism, within prudent limits, may be required.
first glance, it would seem that the forces of integration will
almost certainly prevail. One cannot run a modern postindus-
Regaining solvency.
trial economy without such forces, and that, many people
The principle of balancing power also requires that ends be
would say, is the most important thing in the world. But that is
balanced against means. National security, even in the most
also a parochial view. Running a postindustrial economy may
auspicious of circumstances, does not come cheap. This coun-
not be the most important thing to the peasant in the Sudan,
try's reluctance to bring the costs of providing for its security
or to the young urban black in the United States or to the
into line with what it is willing to pay suggests that integrative
Palestinian who has spent his entire life in a refugee camp. For
and disintegrative mechanisms are imperfectly balanced
those people, forces that might appear to us to be fragmenta-
within the United States as well as beyond its borders.
tionist can be profoundly integrationist, in that they give
The last American president to preoccupy himself with
meaning to otherwise meaningless lives.
solvency, Dwight D. Eisenhower, regularly insisted that the
We should also recognize that the forces of integration may
National Security Council specify as "the basic objective of our
not be as deeply rooted as we like to think. It comes as
national security policies: maintaining the security of the
something of a shock when one realizes that the most impor-
United States and the vitality of its fundamental values and
tant of them-the global market, collective security, the "long
institutions." To achieve the former without securing the
peace" itself-were products of the Cold War. Their survival is
latter, he warned, would be to "destroy what we are attempting
by no means guaranteed into the post-Cold War era. Fragmen-
to defend. "11
tationist forces have been around much longer than integra-
Too often during the years that have followed Eisenhower's
tionist forces, and now that the Cold War is over, they may
presidency the quest for security has overwhelmed concern for
grow stronger than at any point in the last half century.
the vitality of fundamental values and institutions. The Viet-
We should not necessarily conclude from this, though, that
nam War, which came close to tearing this country apart, was
it will always be in our interest to try to ensure that the forces
fought for geopolitical reasons that remain obscure to this day.
of integration come out on top. Surely, in light of the Persian
The Watergate and Iran-contra scandals revealed how ex-
Gulf War, the international community will want to restrict
cesses committed in the name of national security can subvert
future sales of arms across boundaries, and it would not be a
constitutional processes. And no one would be more appalled
bad idea to develop alternatives to dependency on Middle East
oil as well. The increasing permeability of borders-the very
11 John Lewis Gaddis, Strategies of Containment: A Critical Appraisal of Postwar American
thing most of the world welcomes when it comés to the free
National Security Policy, New York: Oxford University Press, 1982, pp. 135-36..
flow of ideas-will by no means be as welcome when commod-
122 FOREIGN AFFAIRS
William J. Crowe, Jr.
ities, capital and labor begin flowing with equal freedom. And
Alan D. Romberg
Americans are already beginning to move away from the view
that they can leave everything-international trade, energy
RETHINKING SECURITY IN THE PACIFIC
resources and especially the regulation of the savings and loan
industry-to the "invisible hand" of market forces that the
integrationist model in principle recommends.
But swinging toward autarchy, nationalism or isolationism
While
hile the world's attention has been riveted on eastern
will not do either. The forces of fragmentation lurk just
Europe, the Soviet Union and the Middle East, transforming
beneath the surface, and it would take little encouragement
events have also been taking place in East Asia. American
for them to reassert themselves, with all the dangers historical
interests there are at least as deep, and though the changes are
experience suggests would accompany such a development.
not as dramatic the United States can ill afford to ignore them
We need to maintain a healthy skepticism about integration:
or leave its reaction in the hands of the fates-or compromises
there is no reason to turn it into some kind of sacred cow. But
in Washington's bureaucracy.
we also need to balance that skepticism with a keen sense of
Not only is the economic strength of Japan and the newly
how unhealthy fragmentationist forces can be if allowed free
industrializing economies in the region of great importance to
rein.
the United States, but Asian security issues also offer complex
So we are left, as usual, groping for the middle ground, for
new challenges to U.S. defense planners. On the one hand, the
that rejection of extremes, that judicious balancing of pluses
Soviet threat has undergone a profound change; this movement
and minuses, that is typical of how articles like this are
has been manifested in some Soviet force reductions and
supposed to end. This one will be no exception to that rule. I
changed dispositions in Asia, as well as in the plethora of Pacific
would point out, though, that practical statecraft boils down,
arms control overtures. On the other hand, American forces
most of the time, to just this task of attempting to navigate the
must still deal with a sizable Soviet military presence in the region
middle course, while avoiding the rocks and shoals that lie on
and play more subtle roles not related to the Soviet Union.
either side. Certainly Americans, of all peoples, should find
In the new post-Cold War era, what is the appropriate U.S.
this a familiar procedure, for what is our own Constitution if
military role in Asia? Indeed what are Washington's security
not the most elegant political text ever composed on how to
objectives? And, especially in light of the economic pressures
balance the forces of integration against those of fragmenta-
that Americans face at home and the growing nationalism and
tion? It had been necessary, Madison wrote in The Federalist,
economic strength of many Asian countries, what sort of
no. 51, so to contrive "the interior structure of the government
presence is necessary, appropriate and affordable to carry out
as that its several constituent parts may, by their mutual
that role? How is the United States to share responsibilities-
relations, be the means of keeping each other in their proper
both burdens and power?
places. That would not be a bad design to follow with regard
to the external world as all of us think about how we might
II
come to grips-as the Founding Fathers had to-with the
The qualities that define Asia are enduring: it is huge,
centripetal and centrifugal forces that are already shaping our
diverse, dynamic and, frequently, dangerous. America's in-
lives.
volvement in World War II began and ended in Asia, and
William J. Crowe, Jr., U.S. Navy (Ret.), former chairman, Joint Chiefs of
Staff (1985-89), is professor of geopolitics at the University of Oklahoma
and Counselor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Alan
D. Romberg is the C. V. Starr Fellow for Asia Studies at the Council on
Foreign Relations. This article grew out of discussions at a Council on
12 The Federalist Papers, New York: New American Library, 1961, p. 320.
Foreign Relations study group.
Administration of George Bush, 1991 / Dec. 25
ining
Americans have the talent and power to
and free. His and Foreign Minister Eduard
do anything. And so when history remem-
Shevardnadze's "New Thinking" in foreign
ago,
bers Christmas, 1991, let it remember that
affairs permitted the United States and the
vn it
we promise to bring God's light to our
Soviet Union to move from confrontation to
have
brothers and sisters in need. Let it record
partnership in the search for peace across
the
that on Christmas, 1991, this Nation united
the globe. Together we negotiated historic
ways
to ask God for peace on Earth, goodwill to
reductions in chemical, nuclear, and con-
who
all. And let it record that a new age of
ventional forces and reduced the risk of a
de-
goodness and hope began here and now.
nuclear conflict.
e so
God bless you, and may your Christmas
Working together, we helped the people
that
be bright with love.
of Eastern Europe win their liberty and the
such
German people their goal of unity in peace
Note: The President recorded this address at
and freedom. Our partnership led to un-
tory.
11:45 a.m. in the Blue Room at the White
precedented cooperation in repelling Iraqi
pirit
House for broadcast at 2:30 p.m. A tape was
aggression in Kuwait, in bringing peace to
hard
not available for verification of the content
Nicaragua and Cambodia, and independ-
I for
of this address.
ence to Namibia. And our work continues
as we seek a lasting and just peace between
veek
Israelis and Arabs in the Middle East and an
put
end to the conflict in Afghanistan.
ck in
Statement on the Resignation of
President Gorbachev's participation in
volu-
Mikhail Gorbachev as President of the
these historic events is his legacy to his
the
Soviet Union
country and to the world. This record as-
rld's
sures him an honored place in history and,
December 25, 1991
most importantly for the future, establishes
the
a solid basis from which the United States
Mikhail Gorbachev's resignation as Presi-
fight
dent of the Soviet Union culminates a re-
and the West can work in equally construc-
tive ways with his successors.
ities
markable era in the history of his country
orts
and in its long and often difficult relation-
me.
ship with the United States. As he leaves
one
office, I would like to express publicly and
And
on behalf of the American people my grati-
Address to the Nation on the
tude to him for years of sustained commit-
Commonwealth of Independent States
eals,
ment to world peace, and my personal re-
December 25, 1991
the
spect for his intellect, vision, and courage.
ing
President Gorbachev is responsible for
Good evening, and Merry Christmas to all
ded
one of the most important developments of
Americans across our great country.
at's
this century, the revolutionary transforma-
During these last few months, you and I
also
tion of a totalitarian dictatorship and the
have witnessed one of the greatest dramas
full
liberation of his people from its smothering
of the 20th century, the historic and revolu-
embrace. His personal commitment to
tionary transformation of a totalitarian dic-
evo-
God
democratic and economic reform through
tatorship, the Soviet Union, and the libera-
perestroika and glasnost, a commitment
tion of its peoples. As we celebrate Christ-
which demanded the highest degree of po-
in
mas, this day of peace and hope, I thought
litical and personal ingenuity and courage,
we should take a few minutes to reflect on
nds
permitted the peoples of Russia and other
what these events mean for us as Ameri-
uce,
Republics to cast aside decades of dark op-
cans.
the
pression and put in place the foundations of
For over 40 years, the United States led
less
freedom:
the West in the struggle against commu-
see
Working with President Reagan, myself,
nism and the threat it posed to our most
gry;
and other allied leaders, President Gorba-
precious values. This struggle shaped the
her
chev acted boldly and decisively to end the
lives of all Americans. It forced all nations
hild
bitter divisions of the cold war and contrib-
to live under the specter of nuclear destruc-
uted to the remaking of a Europe whole
tion.
For Pol
1883
Dec. 25 / Administration of George Bush, 1991
That confrontation is now over. The nu-
some important steps designed to begin this
clear threat, while far from gone, is reced-
process.
ing. Eastern Europe is free. The Soviet
First, the United States recognizes and
Union itself is no more. This is a victory for
welcomes the emergence of a free, inde-
democracy and freedom. It's a victory for
pendent, and democratic Russia, led by its
the moral force of our values. Every Ameri-
courageous President, Boris Yeltsin. Our
can can take pride in this victory, from the
Embassy in Moscow will remain there as
millions of men and women who have
our Embassy to Russia. We will support
served our country in uniform, to millions
Russia's assumption of the U.S.S.R.'s seat as
of Americans who supported their country
a permanent Member of the United Nations
and a strong defense under nine Presidents.
Security Council. I look forward to working
New, independent nations have emerged
closely with President Yeltsin in support of
out of the wreckage of the Soviet empire.
his efforts to bring democratic and market
Last weekend, these former Republics
reform to Russia.
formed a Commonwealth of Independent
States. This act marks the end of the old
Second, the United States also recognizes
Soviet Union, signified today by Mikhail
the independence of Ukraine, Armenia, Ka-
Gorbachev's decision to resign as President.
zakhstan, Belarus, and Kyrgyzstan, all States
I'd like to express, on behalf of the Amer-
that have made specific commitments to us.
ican people, my gratitude to Mikhail Gorba-
We will move quickly to establish diplomat-
chev for years of sustained commitment to
ic relations with these States and build new
world peace, and for his intellect, vision,
ties to them. We will sponsor membership
and courage. I spoke with Mikhail Gorba-
in the United Nations for those not already
chev this morning. We reviewed the many
members.
accomplishments of the past few years and
Third, the United States also recognizes
spoke of hope for the future.
today as independent States the remaining
Mikhail Gorbachev's revolutionary poli-
six former Soviet Republics: Moldova, Turk-
cies transformed the Soviet Union. His poli-
menistan, Azerbaijan, Tadjikistan, Georgia,
cies permitted the peoples of Russia and the
and Uzbekistan. We will establish diplomat-
other Republics to cast aside decades of op-
ic relations with them when we are satisfied
pression and establish the foundations of
that they have made commitments to re-
freedom. His legacy guarantees him an hon-
sponsible security policies and democratic
ored place in history and provides a solid
principles, as have the other States we rec-
basis for the United States to work in equal-
ognize today.
ly constructive ways with his successors.
These dramatic events come at a time
The United States applauds and supports
when Americans are also facing challenges
the historic choice for freedom by the new
here at home. I know that for many of you
States of the Commonwealth. We congratu-
these are difficult times. And I want all
late them on the peaceful and democratic
Americans to know that I am committed to
path they have chosen, and for their careful
attacking our economic problems at home
attention to nuclear control and safety
with the same determination we brought to
during this transition. Despite a potential
winning the cold war.
for instability and chaos, these events clear-
I am confident we will meet this chal-
ly serve our national interest.
lenge as we have so many times before. But
We stand tonight before a new world of
we cannot if we retreat into isolationism.
hope and possibilities for our children, a
We will only succeed in this interconnected
world we could not have contemplated a
world by continuing to lead the fight for
few years ago. The challenge for us now is
free people and free and fair trade. A free
to engage these new States in sustaining the
and prosperous global economy is essential
peace and building a more prosperous
for America's prosperity. That means jobs
future.
and economic growth right here at home.
And so today, based on commitments and
This is a day of great hope for all Ameri-
assurances given to us by some of these
cans. Our enemies have become our part-
States, concerning nuclear safety, democra-
ners, committed to building democratic and
cy, and free markets, I am announcing
civil societies. They ask for our support, and
1884
Administration of George Bush, 1991 / Dec. 26
to begin this
we will give it to them. We will do it be-
press hard to open more markets to quality
cause as Americans we can do no less:
American goods and services.
ognizes and
For our children, we must offer them the
And that's why she's been a determined
1 free, inde-
guarantee of a peaceful and prosperous
advocate of free and fair trade, keenly
a, led by its
future, a future grounded in a world built
aware that when the playing field is level,
(eltsin. Our
on strong democratic principles, free from
American workers can compete with
in there as
the specter of global conflict.
anyone anywhere.
will support
May God bless the people of the new
Her first priority is the same as mine: jobs
S.R.'s seat as
nations in the Commonwealth of Independ-
and economic growth. And she's shown a
lited Nations
ent States. And on this special day of peace
deep commitment to public service, from
1 to working
on Earth, good will toward men, may God
serving on the Consumer Product Safety
a support of
continue to bless the United States of Amer-
Commission to working as an alternate
and market
ica. Good night.
public delegate to the United Nations.
In addition to her corporate and interna-
, recognizes
Note: The President spoke at 9 p.m. from
tional trade experience, Barbara is an entre-
rmenia, Ka-
the Oval Office at the White House. The
preneur, founder and owner of her own
an, all States
address was broadcast live on nationwide
management consulting firm. As one of the
ments to us.
radio and television.
first women to earn an MBA from Harvard
sh diplomat-
University, she's also been a leader and role
d build new
model for many women in business. As we
membership
address the tough economic issues before
not already
The President's News Conference
us, I look forward to Barbara Franklin's
sound, experienced counsel. And she will
recognizes
December 26, 1991
undoubtedly be a valued member of our
e remaining
economic team.
dova, Turk-
Secretary-Designate of Commerce
Let me just add that I am grateful for
in, Georgia,
The President. Good afternoon, the day
Bob Mosbacher's service at the Department
sh diplomat-
after Christmas. Let me just say I am very
of Commerce. I mentioned it here the
are satisfied
pleased to announce my intention to nomi-
other day, but as I name Barbara Franklin
nents to re-
nate Barbara Hackman Franklin as the next
to this new position, I again want to express
democratic
Secretary of Commerce. I've known Bar-
to Bob Mosbacher my sincere appreciation
ites we rec-
bara for many years, and I am confident
for a job so well done. And I have every
that her outstanding record of achievement
confidence that Barbara will continue that
at a time
in both the public and private sector will
fine tradition of exemplary public service.
; challenges
serve her well as she tackles this tough and
And now, Madam Secretary-Designate, if
nany of you
important assignment.
you would like to say a word or two, and
I want all
Barbara has dealt with a broad range of
then we'll be-either both of us be glad to
ommitted to
domestic and international issues. She's a
take some questions.
ms at home
recognized leader in her field. She served
Ms. Franklin. Thank you very much, Mr.
brought to
on the board of directors of seven major
President. I am deeply honored, almost
industrial companies, manufacturing and
beyond putting that into words, but I am
t this chal-
service, providing advice and guidance on
absolutely thrilled to be a new part of your
before. But
how to successfully innovate, manage effi-
team. And I'm particularly honored that
solationism.
ciently, and stimulate economic growth. In
you have chosen me to follow my friend,
erconnected
fact, in 1990, the American Management
Secretary Bob Mosbacher, who really has
e fight for
Association named her one of our Nation's
done a wonderful job. And I admire very
ade. A free
50 most influential corporate directors.
much what you and he have done to forge
is essential
Currently in her fourth term as a
a partnership between Government and
means jobs
member of the President's Advisory Com-
business and to promote exports. And I look
e at home.
mittee on Trade Negotiations, she under-
forward to working with everyone on your
r all Ameri-
stands firsthand the challenge America
team in the administration to continuing
e our part-
faces in the international trade arena. She
that momentum.
locratic and
knows that, currently, exports are our
As Secretary of Commerce, when con-
upport, and
strong suit and that we must continue to
firmed by the Senate, of course, I look for-
1885
[55] Mar. II
Public Papers of the Presidents
departments and agencies concerned stand
of the Board, Westinghouse Electric Corp., Pitts-
ready to give you all possible aid.
burgh, Pa.; James B. Black, President, Pacific Gas &
Electric Co., San Francisco, Calif.; and Vice Adm.
Sincerely yours,
Edward L. Cochrane, formerly Chief, Bureau of
HARRY S. TRUMAN
Ships, U.S. Navy, and President, The Society of
Naval Architects and Marine Engineers. Mr. Keller
NOTE: This is the text of identical letters addressed
was appointed Chairman, and Mr. Folsom, Vice
to the following appointees to the Advisory Com-
Chairman of the Committee.
mittee: K. T. Keller, President, Chrysler Corp.,
The letter and the list of appointees were part of
Detroit, Mich.; Marion B. Folsom, Vice Chairman,
a White House release announcing that the President
Business Advisory Council for the Department of
had that day established the Advisory Committee on
Commerce, and Treasurer, Eastman Kodak Co.,
the Merchant Marine.
Rochester, N.Y.; Andrew W. Robertson, Chairman
56 Special Message to the Congress on Greece and Turkey:
The Truman Doctrine. March 12, I947
[ As delivered in person before a joint session ]
Mr. President, Mr. Speaker, Members of the
fered invasion, four years of cruel enemy
Congress of the United States:
occupation, and bitter internal strife.
The gravity of the situation which con-
When forces of liberation entered Greece
fronts the world today necessitates my
they found that the retreating Germans had
appearance before a joint session of the
destroyed virtually all the railways, roads,
Congress.
port facilities, communications, and mer-
The foreign policy and the national
chant marine. More than a thousand vil-
security of this country are involved.
lages had been burned. Eighty-five percent
One aspect of the present situation, which
of the children were tubercular. Livestock,
I present to you at this time for your con-
poultry, and draft animals had almost
sideration and decision, concerns Greece
disappeared. Inflation had wiped out prac-
and Turkey.
tically all savings.
The United States has received from the
As a result of these tragic conditions, a
Greek Government an urgent appeal for
militant minority, exploiting human want
financial and economic assistance. Prelimi-
and misery, was able to create political chaos
nary reports from the American Economic
which, until now, has made economic
Mission now in Greece and reports from the
recovery impossible.
American Ambassador in Greece corroborate
Greece is today without funds to finance
the statement of the Greek Government that
the importation of those goods which are
assistance is imperative if Greece is to sur-
essential to bare subsistence. Under these
vive as a free nation.
circumstances the people of Greece cannot
I do not believe that the American people
make progress in solving their problems of
and the Congress wish to turn a deaf ear
reconstruction. Greece is in desperate need
to the appeal of the Greek Government.
of financial and economic assistance to en-
Greece is not a rich country. Lack of
able it to resume purchases of food, clothing,
sufficient natural resources has always
fuel and seeds. These are indispensable for
forced the Greek people to work hard to
the subsistence of its people and are obtain-
make both ends meet. Since 1940, this
able only from abroad. Greece must have
industrious, peace loving country has suf-
help to import the goods necessary to restore
176
Harry S. Truman, 1947
Mar. I2 [56]
Pitts-
internal order and security so essential for
in several parts of the world, including
Gas &
Adm.
economic and political recovery.
Greece.
The Greek Government has also asked
We have considered how the United
au of
ety of
for the assistance of experienced American
Nations might assist in this crisis. But the
Keller
administrators, economists and technicians
situation is an urgent one requiring imme-
Vice
to insure that the financial and other aid
diate action, and the United Nations and
part of
given to Greece shall be used effectively in
its related organizations are not in a posi-
esident
creating a stable and self-sustaining economy
tion to extend help of the kind that is
tee on
and in improving its public administration.
required.
The very existence of the Greek state is
It is important to note that the Greek
today threatened by the terrorist activities
Government has asked for our aid in uti-
of several thousand armed men, led by Com-
lizing effectively the financial and other
munists, who defy the government's author-
assistance we may give to Greece, and in
ity at a number of points, particularly along
improving its public administration. It is
the northern boundaries. A Commission
of the utmost importance that we supervise
appointed by the United Nations Security
the use of any funds made available to
nemy
Council is at present investigating disturbed
Greece, in such a manner that each dollar
conditions in northern Greece and alleged
spent will count toward making Greece
Greece
border violations along the frontier between
self-supporting, and will help to build an
is had
Greece on the one hand and Albania, Bul-
economy in which a healthy democracy
roads,
garia, and Yugoslavia on the other.
can flourish.
mer-
Meanwhile, the Greek Government is un-
No government is perfect. One of the
id vil-
able to cope with the situation. The Greek
chief virtues of a democracy, however, is
ercent
army is small and poorly equipped. It needs
that its defects are always visible and under
estock,
supplies and equipment if it is to restore
democratic processes can be pointed out
almost
authority to the government throughout
and corrected. The government of Greece
prac-
Greek territory.
is not perfect. Nevertheless it represents 85
Greece must have assistance if it is to
percent of the members of the Greek Parlia-
ons, a
become a self-supporting and self-respecting
ment who were chosen in an election last
want
democracy.
year. Foreign observers, including 692
chaos
The United States must supply this assist-
Americans, considered this election to be a
nomic
ance. We have already extended to Greece
fair expression of the views of the Greek
certain types of relief and economic aid but
people.
inance
these are inadequate.
The Greek Government has been oper-
ch are
There is no other country to which demo-
ating in an atmosphere of chaos and ex-
these
cratic Greece can turn.
tremism. It has made mistakes. The
cannot
No other nation is willing and able to
extension of aid by this country does not
ems of
provide the necessary support for a demo-
mean that the United States condones
e need
cratic Greek government.
everything that the Greek Government has
to en-
The British Government, which has been
done or will do. We have condemned in
thing,
helping Greece, can give no further finan-
the past, and we condemn now, extremist
ble for
cial or economic aid after March 31. Great
measures of the right or the left. We have
obtain-
Britain finds itself under the necessity of
in the past advised tolerance, and we advise
have
reducing or liquidating its commitments
tolerance now.
restore
177
[56]
Mar.
I2
Public Papers of the Presidents
Greece's neighbor, Turkey, also deserves
States has taken a leading part in establish-
our attention.
ing the United Nations. The United Na-
The future of Turkey as an independent
tions is designed to make possible lasting
and economically sound state is clearly no
freedom and independence for all its mem-
less important to the freedom-loving peoples
bers. We shall not realize our objectives,
of the world than the future of Greece. The
however, unless we are willing to help free
circumstances in which Turkey finds itself
peoples to maintain their free institutions
today are considerably different from those
and their national integrity against aggres-
of Greece. Turkey has been spared the dis-
sive movements that seek to impose upon
asters that have beset Greece. And during
them totalitarian regimes. This is no more
the war, the United States and Great Britain
than a frank recognition that totalitarian
furnished Turkey with material aid.
regimes imposed upon free peoples, by direct
Nevertheless, Turkey now needs our
or indirect aggression, undermine the foun-
support.
dations of international peace and hence
Since the war Turkey has sought addi-
the security of the United States.
tional financial assistance from Great Brit-
The peoples of a number of countries of
ain and the United States for the purpose of
the world have recently had totalitarian
effecting that modernization necessary for
regimes forced upon them against their will.
the maintenance of its national integrity.
The Government of the United States has
That integrity is essential to the preser-
made frequent protests against coercion and
vation of order in the Middle East.
intimidation, in violation of the Yalta agree-
The British Government has informed us
ment, in Poland, Rumania, and Bulgaria.
that, owing to its own difficulties, it can no
I must also state that in a number of
longer extend financial or economic aid to
other countries there have been similar
Turkey.
developments.
As in the case of Greece, if Turkey is to
At the present moment in world history
have the assistance it needs, the United
nearly every nation must choose between
States must supply it. We are the only
alternative ways of life. The choice is too
country able to provide that help.
often not a free one.
I am fully aware of the broad implications
One way of life is based upon the will of
involved if the United States extends assist-
the majority, and is distinguished by free
ance to Greece and Turkey, and I shall dis-
institutions, representative government, free
cuss these implications with you at this time.
elections, guarantees of individual liberty,
One of the primary objectives of the for-
freedom of speech and religion, and freedom
eign policy of the United States is the cre-
from political oppression.
ation of conditions in which we and other
The second way of life is based upon the
nations will be able to work out a way of
will of a minority forcibly imposed upon
life free from coercion. This was a funda-
the majority. It relies upon terror and
mental issue in the war with Germany and
oppression, a controlled press and radio,
Japan. Our victory was won over countries
fixed elections, and the suppression of per-
which sought to impose their will, and their
sonal freedoms.
way of life, upon other nations.
I believe that it must be the policy of the
To ensure the peaceful development of
United States to support free peoples who
nations, free from coercion, the United
are resisting attempted subjugation by
178
Harry S. Truman, 1947
Mar. I2 [56]
ablish-
armed minorities or by outside pressures.
striving to maintain their freedom and
Na-
I believe that we must assist free peoples
independence.
lasting
to work out their own destinies in their own
Should we fail to aid Greece and Turkey
way.
in this fateful hour, the effect will be far
mem-
I believe that our help should be primarily
reaching to the West as well as to the East.
free
through economic and financial aid which
We must take immediate and resolute
is essential to economic stability and orderly
action.
political processes.
I therefore ask the Congress to provide
ggres-
The world is not static, and the status quo
authority for assistance to Greece and Tur-
upon
is not sacred. But we cannot allow changes
key in the amount of $400,000,000 for the
more
tarian
in the status quo in violation of the Charter
period ending June 30, 1948. In requesting
direct
of the United Nations by such methods as
these funds, I have taken into consideration
foun-
coercion, or by such subterfuges as political
the maximum amount of relief assistance
hence
infiltration. In helping free and independ-
which would be furnished to Greece out of
ent nations to maintain their freedom, the
the $350,000,000 which I recently requested
of
United States will be giving effect to the
that the Congress authorize for the preven-
principles of the Charter of the United
tion of starvation and suffering in countries
will.
Nations.
devastated by the war.
has
It is necessary only to glance at a map to
In addition to funds, I ask the Congress
realize that the survival and integrity of the
to authorize the detail of American civilian
and
Greek nation are of grave importance in a
and military personnel to Greece and Tur-
agree-
garia.
much wider situation. If Greece should
key, at the request of those countries, to
of
fall under the control of an armed minority,
assist in the tasks of reconstruction, and for
imilar
the effect upon its neighbor, Turkey, would
the purpose of supervising the use of such
be immediate and serious. Confusion and
financial and material assistance as may be
disorder might well spread throughout the
furnished. I recommend that authority
entire Middle East.
also be provided for the instruction and
too
Moreover, the disappearance of Greece as
training of selected Greek and Turkish
an independent state would have a profound
personnel.
of
effect upon those countries in Europe whose
Finally, I ask that the Congress provide
free
peoples are struggling against great difficul-
authority which will permit the speediest
free
ties to maintain their freedoms and their
and most effective use, in terms of needed
berty,
independence while they repair the damages
commodities, supplies, and equipment, of
of war.
such funds as may be authorized.
It would be an unspeakable tragedy if
If further funds, or further authority,
the
these countries, which have struggled so
should be needed for the purposes indicated
upon
long against overwhelming odds, should
in this message, I shall not hesitate to bring
and
lose that victory for which they sacrificed
the situation before the Congress. On this
so much. Collapse of free institutions and
subject the Executive and Legislative
loss of independence would be disastrous
branches of the Government must work
per-
not only for them but for the world. Dis-
together.
the
couragement and possibly failure would
This is a serious course upon which we
who
quickly be the lot of neighboring peoples
embark.
by
179
[56] Mar. I2
Public Papers of the Presidents
I would not recommend it except that
strife. They reach their full growth when
the alternative is much more serious.
the hope of a people for a better life has died.
The United States contributed $341,000,-
We must keep that hope alive.
000,000 toward winning World War II.
The free peoples of the world look to us
This is an investment in world freedom
for support in maintaining their freedoms.
and world peace.
If we falter in our leadership, we may en-
The assistance that I am recommending
danger the peace of the world-and we shall
for Greece and Turkey amounts to little
surely endanger the welfare of this Nation.
more than 1/10 of I percent of this invest-
Great responsibilities have been placed
ment. It is only common sense that we
upon us by the swift movement of events.
should safeguard this investment and make
I am confident that the Congress will face
sure that it was not in vain.
these responsibilities squarely.
The seeds of totalitarian regimes are nur-
NOTE: For the President's statement upon signing
tured by misery and want. They spread
the bill endorsing the Truman Doctrine, see Item
and grow in the evil soil of poverty and
100.
57 Statement by the President Concerning Greek Reaction to
His Message. March 15, I947
I HAVE just received two warm and ap-
I sincerely hope that these evidences of
preciative messages from Greece, one from
good will mark the beginning of a happier
Prime Minister Maximos and one from Mr.
era for Greece, in which all loyal citizens
Themistocles Sophoulis, leader of the Parlia-
will contribute their share toward the res-
mentary Opposition. Both of these mes-
toration of a country of whose democratic
sages welcome the prospect of the kind of
history they may be proud. It is also my
American assistance which I recently re-
profound hope that those Greeks who have
quested Congress to authorize, and pledge
taken up arms against their government will
the wholehearted support of the Greek peo-
accept with confidence the amnesty which
ple in devoting any aid that may be forth-
the Greek Government is extending to all
coming to the purpose of constructive
except those guilty of crimes against the
rehabilitation and the cause of peace and
common law. The Greek people, aware of
freedom. These two statements bear witness
the sympathetic interest of the American
to the fact that all of the Greek Parliament,
people, will, I am sure, rally their strength
including the Opposition as well as those
to vitalize their national life, forgetting
parties now represented in the Coalition
past excesses and looking courageously to-
cabinet, are prepared to cooperate unreserv-
ward a hopeful future.
edly with the United States Government in
NOTE: The messages to the President from Demetrios
its desire to assist Greece in restoring those
Maximos, Prime Minister of Greece, and Themis-
basic conditions of economic stability and
tocles Sophoulis, the leader of the Opposition Com-
internal order which will allow the Greek
mittee, were released with the President's statement.
people to build their future in peace and
security.
180
1 them to has this many paid times a price for higher for peace.
2 3
[99] May 22
Public Papers of the Presidents
therefore essential that there be continued
Secretary of State to be of high public im-
authority to restrict imports and to issue
portance and essential to the successful carry-
priorities for export of nitrogenous fertilizer
ing out of the foreign policy of the United
materials.
States.
(c) INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS. In general
In this message I have not considered it
our supply of industrial products and ma-
necessary to discuss certain powers originally
terials has reached the point where delays
derived from the Second War Powers Act
in production and delivery are no longer
but now covered by separate legislation, i.e.,
crucial. The pipelines are full, or are filling
the Sugar Act, the Rubber Act and the Pat-
up, and no general use of allocation powers
man Act. I have also omitted reference to
is needed. But economic and political con-
the great importance of continued authority
ditions in many other countries are so critical
to allocate the use of transportation equip-
that it is necessary to continue the power to
ment and facilities by rail carriers. This
issue export priorities in special cases for key
matter is covered by separate bills, H.R. 3152
industrial items that are vitally required for
and S. 1297, now pending before the Con-
reconstruction and rehabilitation. In most
gress. Prompt action on these bills is ur-
countries, supplies of industrial materials
gently needed. Similarly, the Congress now
and products are still far short of minimum
has under consideration an extension of the
essential levels. Entirely apart from the use
Export Control Act. It, too, is essential in
of priorities, the United States is furnishing
implementing our foreign policy. I also
substantial quantities of industrial equip-
urge prompt action on this bill.
ment and supplies so urgently needed to re-
The further extension of the Second War
activate the economies of these countries.
Powers Act in the limited form described
However, great damage can be done by in-
above is of direct interest to our own econ-
ability to obtain an occasional machine, or
omy and is indispensable in supporting our
machine parts needed to complete a program
international policy. The powers that I
or project. It is in such cases that priority
have outlined are the minimum needed to
assistance is needed. The Congress has
accomplish these ends. I therefore recom-
already recognized the importance of sup-
mend that the Congress enact legislation to
porting our foreign policy with financial
extend these powers for a period of one year.
assistance. Financial assistance alone, with-
HARRY S. TRUMAN
out occasional priority backing, may be
useless in instances where speedy aid in con-
NOTE: On July 15 the President approved the Second
crete form is essential. The use of the
Decontrol Act of 1947 providing for an extension
until February 29, 1948, of certain emergency
priority powers that I am recommending
powers of the President. For his statement upon
would be limited to cases certified by the
signing the act, see Item 143.
I00
Statement by the President Upon Signing Bill Endorsing
the Truman Doctrine. May 22, 1947
THE ACT authorizing United States assist-
building of the peace. Its passage by over-
ance to Greece and Turkey, which I have
whelming majorities in both Houses of the
just signed, is an important step in the
Congress is proof that the United States
254
Harry S. Truman, 1947
May 26 [101]
high public im-
earnestly desires peace and is willing to make
are being instructed to enter into immediate
: successful carry-
a vigorous effort to help create conditions
cy of the United
negotiations for agreements which, in accord-
of peace.
ance with the terms of the act, will govern
The conditions of peace include, among
the application of our aid. We intend to
not considered it
other things, the ability of nations to main-
make sure that the aid we extend will benefit
bowers originally
tain order and independence, and to support
all the peoples of Greece and Turkey, not
Var Powers Act
themselves economically. In extending the
any particular group or faction.
e legislation, i.e.,
aid requested by two members of the United
I wish to express my appreciation to the
Act and the Pat-
Nations for the purpose of maintaining these
leaders and members of both parties in the
.ted reference to
conditions, the United States is helping to
Congress for their spendid support in ob-
tinued authority
further aims and purposes identical with
taining the passage of this vital legislation.
portation equip-
those of the United Nations. Our aid in
carriers. This
NOTE: As enacted, the bill providing assistance to
this instance is evidence not only that we
Greece and Turkey is Public Law 75, 80th Congress
bills, H.R. 3152
pledge our support to the United Nations
(61 Stat. 103).
before the Con-
On May 22 the President also issued Executive
but that we act to support it.
hese bills is ur-
Order 9857 prescribing regulations for carrying out
With the passage and signature of this
the provisions of the act (3 CFR, 1943-1948 Comp.,
e Congress now
act, our Ambassadors to Greece and Turkey
p. 646).
extension of the
, is essential in
policy. I also
ill.
IOI Special Message to the Congress on Military Collaboration
e Second War
With Other American States. May 26, 1947
orm described
[ Released May 26, 1947.
Dated
May
23,
1947
]
our own econ-
supporting our
To the Congress of the United States:
As stated in my message to the 79th Con-
owers that I
I submit herewith for the consideration of
gress our Army and Navy have maintained
um needed to
the Congress a bill to be entitled "The Inter-
cordial relations of collaboration with the
erefore recom-
American Military Cooperation Act" au-
armed forces of other American republics
legislation to
thorizing a program of military collabora-
within the framework of the good-neighbor
d of one year.
tion with other American States including
policy. Under authorization of the Con-
S. TRUMAN
the training, organization, and equipment of
gress, military and naval training missions
oved the Second
the armed forces of those countries.
have been sent to various American repub-
or an extension
I submitted a similar bill to the 79th Con-
lics. During the recent war, even prior to
ain emergency
gress and recommended at that time that the
Pearl Harbor, this collaboration was inten-
statement upon
Congress give the bill favorable considera-
sively developed on the basis of inter-Amer-
tion and enact it. The Committee on For-
ican undertakings for hemisphere defense.
eign Affairs of the House of Representatives
Training activities were expanded, and
reported the bill with amendments to the
under the Lend-Lease Act limited amounts
Committee of Whole House as H.R. 6326.
of military and naval equipment were made
This present draft agrees with H.R. 6326.
available to the other American republics as
World developments during the year that
part of the hemisphere defense program.
has passed give still greater importance to
Forces from two of the American republics
age by over-
this legislation, and I again ask the Congress
participated in combat overseas, and others
ouses of the
to give this bill favorable consideration and
joined in the defense of the shores and seas
nited States
enact it.
of the Americas at a time when the danger
99-438-63-19
255
Vital Speeches of the Day
REG. U:S. PAT. OFF.
VOL. LV
APRIL 15, 1989
NO. 13
Arms Control and Soviet Relations
OUR POLITICAL VALUES - AN INSPIRATION TO ALL
1522
By MAX M. KAMPELMAN, Former U.S. Ambassador, Chairman of Freedom House
Delivered at the United States Marine Corps Education Center, Quantico, Virginia, March 1, 1989
M
R. CHAIRMAN, Mrs. Erskine, distinguished
it was when my grandparents were born. The average world
Guests, Friends: I am pleased to be with you this
standard of living has, by one estimate, quadrupled in the past
evening. Yours is a distinguished institution, new but
century. More than 80 percent of all scientists who ever lived
already significant and prestigious. You are dedicated to pro-
are alive today. In this century, our country's frontiers of explo-
viding the "Margin of Excellence" which has characterized the
ration have gone from Alaska to the far side of the moon, and
Marine Corps since its inception. You do so by training lead-
beyond. New computers, new materials, new bio-technological
ership for a dauntingly complex today and the even more com-
processes are altering every phase of our lives, deaths, even
plex tomorrow facing our country. America owes you a great
reproduction. World communications are now instantaneous,
debt for that commitment. It is a privilege for me to be deliv-
and transportation is not far behind.
ering tonight's General Graves B. Erskine lecture. I cherish
These developments are stretching our minds to the outer-
the honor and look upon it as a highlight to an otherwise all
most dimensions of our capacity to understand them. More-
too brief period of service as a Marine.
over, as we look ahead, we must agree that we have only the
This occasion, in this forum, before this audience, six weeks
minutest glimpse of what our universe really is. Indeed, "Our
after leaving Government service, is appropriate for some per-
science is a drop, our ignorance a sea."
sonal retrospection and analysis. I invite you to join me as I
Much has been said, and much more must be said, about the
stand back and evaluate our country's leadership role in an
significance of those awesome changes. But today, I would like
international community in a world that is changing so fast and
to address this question in the context of our national security
so dramatically that we scarcely have time to focus on its details
and our quest for "peace," a peace with dignity and liberty,
let alone its scope.
understandably considered to be the ultimate objective of our
The pace of change in this century is greater than in all of
diplomacy. It is a goal easy enough to state, but difficult to
mankind's previous history put together. Any statement we
define, let alone attain.
make today about tomorrow is likely to be obsolete even before
Men and women seem capable of mobilizing their talents to
the day is over. And newer scientific and technological devel-
unravel the mysteries of their physical environment. We have
opments on the horizon will probably make all previous dis-
learned to fly through space like birds and move in deep waters
coveries dwarf by comparison. During my lifetime, medical
like fish. But how to live and love on this small planet as
knowledge available to physicians has increased more than
brothers and sisters still eludes us. In every age, that has been
ten-fold. The average life span is now nearly twice as great as
the essence of the challenge. It is the primary challenge facing
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MAX M. KAMPELMAN
387
the next President - and he builds on an extraordinary begin-
where democracy and freedom stand in the world. The latest
ning by President Reagan.
survey released a few weeks ago shows that a higher percent-
We are brought up to believe that necessity is the mother of
age and a higher number of people live in freedom in 1988
invention. I suggest the corollary is also true: invention is the
than ever previously recorded - nearly two billion people.
mother of necessity. Technology and communication have
Just under 40 percent of the world's population lives in 60
made the world smaller. There is no escaping the fact that the
countries and 39 related territories that are free. Major
sound of a whisper or a whimper in one part of the world can
advances in freedom were recorded, furthermore, in every part
immediately be heard in all parts of the world. And yet the
of the world. In the past fifteen years the number of countries
world body. politic is not keeping pace with those realities.
which can be called "free" or "partly free" has climbed from
What we have instead been observing is an intense fraction-
92 to 117, with about 63 percent of the world's population
alization, as large numbers of peoples have had their emotions
living in these countries, while the number of "not free"
inflamed by nationality and religious appeals. It is as if a part
declined from 71 to 50, with China and the Soviet Union rep-
of us is saying: "Not so fast. We are not ready. Our religious
resenting more than 70 percent of those not living in freedom.
and communal culture has not prepared us for this new world
When permitted, and sometimes even when not, people are
we are being dragged into. We resist the pressures by holding
choosing freedom.
on tight to the familiar, the traditional; and we will do so with
There is alongside the cry for freedom also the clamoring
a determined frenzy!"
sound for peace. Peace is the indispensable ingredient for the
But the inevitable tomorrow is appearing. Economic, tech-
evolution of Man from the species homo sapiens to the species
nological, and communication advances have made global
"human being." But what does it mean? It is a proud word that
interdependence a reality. Economic power and industrial
has too often been corrupted. There is the peace of the grave;
capacity are ever more widely dispersed around the globe. Our
the peace that reigns in a well-disciplined prison or gulag; the
political and economic institutions are feeling the stress of
peace that may plant, with its terms, the seeds of a future war.
these pressures as they try to digest their implications. We
Certainly those are not what our dreamers and philosophers
have yet to come to grips with a world in which the combined
have yearned for. It is peace with dignity and liberty that we
gross national product of Europe, for example, exceeds that of
seek.
the United States; and the gross national product of Japan
The discussion of war since the beginning of time has been-
exceeds that of the Soviet Union; while the economies of South
surrounded by ethical considerations. Theologians have long
Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore have moved, in the
debated the "just war." From Thucydiudes to Tolstoy to
space of a generation, to international influence far beyond
Churchill, it was understood that wars could not just be fought,
their relative size. And we have yet to settle on a legal and
without justification. Ancient Greek philosophers and early
regulatory framework to cope with a world where economic
Christian writers accepted war as a necessary part of nature.
interdependence blurs the origin of products, and where inter-
St. Augustine found justification for war in intervening to pro-
national financial flows in a single day (about $1 trillion) equal
tect the innocent; Thomas Aquinas, in punishing wrongdoers;
the U.S. government's annual budget.
for others, simply the notion of defense. Modern day inter-
There are, furthermore, new sounds and among those most
national law, reflected in the United Nations Charter, embraces
clearly and loudly heard are the sounds of freedom and democ-
the "inherent right of individual or collective self-defense."
racy. The striving for human dignity is universal because it is
Today, as it must, modern technology profoundly enters the
an integral part of our human character. We see it in Burma,
discourse. Even before the full impact of nuclear weapons could
Pakistan, Korea, the Philippines, South Africa, Chile, Poland.
be felt, Reinhold Niebuhr noted that "we have come into the
A larger part of the world's population is today living in rel-
tragic position of developing a form of destruction which, if
ative freedom than ever before in the history of the world.
used by our enemies against us, would mean our physical anni-
Even in Latin America, a region of the world we grew up
hilation; and, if used by us against our enemies, would mean
believing to be governed by military dictatorships and tyran-
our moral annihilation." He noted "a moral dilemma for which
nies, more than 90 percent of the people today live, though
there is no clear moral solution."
still precariously, in democracies or near democracies. In our
Neither the diplomat nor the politician in a democracy can
own hemisphere, fifteen years ago South America had only
afford to ignore the moral dimension of foreign policy. The
two functioning democracies. Today it has only two dictator-
citizen does not. With the clearly devastating character of
ships; with Paraguay one of them, just getting rid of its dic-
modern weapons, conventional and nuclear, no democracy can
tator, and Chile, the other, recently voting to do SO. The Car-
effectively pursue its diplomacy, where the availability of force
ibbean is today entirely democratic, except for Cuba and Haiti,
is an indispensable ingredient, unless there is a broad con-
with the rulers of Haiti now promising early and free elections.
sensus behind the policy. Certainly for the United States, that
In Central America, there are now four democracies, with
consensus requires a moral foundation.
Nicaragua the blatant exception and the military dictator of
The pacifist meets - some would say avoids - the Niebuhr
Panama holding on precariously. Mexico completes the hemi-
moral dilemma by declaring an absolute principle. "Wars will
spheric round-up with indications from its most recent elec-
cease when men refuse to fight" is the slogan. "Someday they'll
tions that its political system may well be opening up.
give a war and nobody will come," wrote Carl Sandburg. Pres-
Let me take a moment to elaborate upon this point. I am
ident Mitterrand had this phenomenon in mind with his sar-
this month reassuming the Chairmanship of an organization
donic comment that the Soviet Union produces weapons while
known as Freedom House. The organization, formed at the
the West produces pacifists.
end of World War II by Eleanor Roosevelt and Wendell Willkie,
The pacifist principle that war is a greater evil than any evil
is a non-partisan one in behalf of liberty all over the world.
it would seek to correct seemingly justifies yielding to the lesser
Freedom House annually publishes the definitive inventory of
evil in the faith that history or a higher moral authority will in
388
VITAL SPEECHES OF THE DAY
the end set things straight. Regrettably, this has in recent years
duce results. For the first time since the dawn of the nuclear
led to a rationalization that the purported enemy is not so evil
age, we have produced a treaty completely eliminating to zero
after all. Thus, the sad alliance of some pacifists with politi-
two entire categories of nuclear missiles. A total of 2096 war-
cally motivated cadres who told us that Hitler was only reflect-
heads - 1667 Soviet and 429 U.S. - will disappear. We have
ing rightful German grievances; or that the brutal excesses of
already started to destroy these missiles. We have continued to
Stalin and Mao were simply capitalist exaggerations; or that
make progress in Geneva where we have completed more than
North Vietnam was seeking to unify and not subjugate its
300 pages of a joint draft text of a treaty which would achieve
peninsula; or that the Sandinistas are idealistic revolutionaries
50 percent reductions in long-range strategic nuclear weapons,
rather than totalitarian communists. Clausewitz reminds us
the most dangerous and destabilizing nuclear forces on this
that "The aggressor is always peaceloving. He would-like to
planet. We are also on the verge of completing two treaties on
make his entry into our country undisturbed
nuclear testing.
Pacifists, many but not all of whom recognize the high moral
Current United States policy is to reduce risks and tensions
duty to identify, challenge and attempt to defeat evil, focus on
while maintaining the strategy of deterrence. In addition to
the power of love and non-violent resistance to evil. The human
negotiating toward further verifiable and stabilizing reduc-
being, they argue, has the capacity to respond more to the
tions in nuclear arms, we are preparing for talks to begin in a
human force of love and conscience in his fellow man than to
few days to reduce conventional arms and are continuing
coercion and hate, which perpetuate conflict. Modern tech-
with talks dealing with the scourge of chemical weapons.
nology now challenges that pacifist faith by depersonalizing
Simultaneously, we are engaged in a process to build realistic,
and automating the process of war. The armed adversary in
constructive, and more cooperative relations with the Soviet
modern war never sees his victim, who, therefore, cannot reach
Union.
his adversary to project the power of his love. The human
We have obviously begun an historic process, all in the con-
dimension disappears. The Russian proverb goes: "Make your-
text of change. Change is inevitable. As it must under the laws
self into a sheep, and you'll meet a wolf nearby."
of nature, today will soon be yesterday and tomorrow will soon
Society, therefore, looks beyond pacifism for the peace with
be with us. We must not fear it. We must influence it. With the
freedom and dignity we all seek. Here, those who have been
complex issues we face, however, even should change bring
called, "the moral architects," present their case. They seek to
with it further reduction agreements, we will still be nearer to
build a moral framework in which war could be contained,
the beginning than to the end of that process.
restrained, and perhaps even humanized. They accept the
The tensions that have characterized our relations with the
legitimacy of force and its presence in human history, but within
Soviet Union are real. Our problems are too profound to be
a moral universe.
thought of as being resolved by quick fixes, super negotiators,
Non-intervention as an approach has historically also had
a summit, or a master-dráftsman capable of formulating lan-
its advocates. It was John Stuart Mill, however, who pierced
guage to overcome differences. The leadership of the Soviet
the balloon of simplicity when he wrote:
Union is serious. Its diplomats are well trained. Their response
"The doctrine of non-intervention, to be a legitimate
in a negotiation is motivated by one primary consideration:
principle of morality, must be accepted by all govern-
their perceived national self-interest.
ments. The despots must consent to be bound by it as
The fundamental challenge to the free world has been a
well as the free States. Unless they do, the profession of
Soviet principle that everything that has become Communist
it by free countries comes but to this miserable issue,
remains forever inviolate; and everything that is not commu-
that the wrong side may help the wrong, but the right
nist is open to change by pressure, subversion, even terror. We,
must not help the right."
therefore, observe with keen interest that the Soviets have
Society continues to look for other and perhaps better alter-
withdrawn their troops from Afghanistan. Moreover, its lead-
natives than war to assure peace with liberty. The Strategic
ers now say - and we are encouraged to hear - they are
Defense Initiative increasingly presents itself as an alternative
modifying their old faith that the "irreconcilability" of our two
that must here be addressed. It is defensive in intent. With our
systems means the "inevitability" of war.
SDI program, we are exploring through research whether we
The Soviet economy is working poorly, although it does pro-
can strengthen deterrence through an increased ability to cre-
vide a fully functioning military and police machine. Massive
ate effective defenses and thereby deny and deter an aggressor
military power has provided the Soviets with a presence that
from his objectives. Its appeal is that people ask of their gov-
reaches all parts of the world, but this military superpower
ernments that they be protected from attack, not that their
cannot hide the fact that its economic and social weaknesses
government be able only to avenge them after the attack. The
are deep. The Soviet's awesome internal police force has pro-
possibility is a real one that defense technologies, cost effec-
vided continuity to its system of governance, but a Russia which
tive at the margin and preferably non-nuclear, can be created.
during Czarist days exported food cannot today feed its own
The search, furthermore, is not ours alone. The Soviet Union
people.Productivity is low. With absenteeism, corruption, and
has for many years been active and successful in building up
alcoholism, internal morale is bad. Contrary to trends else-
its defensive capabilities. This includes, as Mr. Gorbachev has
where in the world, life expectancy is actually decreasing. It is
acknowledged, proceeding with an intensified program of
estimated that a worker in the Soviet Union must work more
research on their own version of SDI. The new reality is that
than seven times as many hours as a Western Europen to'earn
there can be no true security for any one country or people
enough money to buy a car. One Russian recently said: "There
unless there is security for all. We must learn to accept in each
have been many books written on the transition from capital-
of our countries a mutual responsibility for peoples in all other
ism to socialism, but not one on the transition from socialism
countries.
to capitalism."
We are negotiating. We want our negotiating efforts to pro-
The new leaders of the Soviet Union are fully aware of its
MAX M. KAMPELMAN
389
problems. No police cated can keep out the ideas and developments
of their system is the fact they and we must still face.
by satellite to all parts of the world,
Our ability to influence Soviet internal developments is likely
any more than it can by fiat insulate the Soviet Union from the
to be limited, but we are not totally without influence. The
wind currents that circle our globe. They are also aware of our
Soviet Union and its people in many ways measure themselves
strengths, reflecting the vitality of our values and the healthy
by Western standards. The United States is the Soviet Union's
dynamism of our system.
principal rival, but we are also its standard for comparison.
In the past six years, we have seen 17.8 million new jobs
Language used by us to characterize our values, such as "human
created in the United States, a 5.6 percent drop in our unem-
rights" and "democracy" are adopted by the Soviets, because
ployment rate to its lowest level in 14 years, a 26 percent
they satisfy the deepest aspirations of the Soviet peoples as
increase in real GNP per capita, and a reduced inflation rate,
well.
which had been at double digits, to an average of 3.4 percent.
The United States negotiates with the Soviet Union in that
We have every reason to be proud of our system, even with its
context. We intensify our efforts, through our negotiations, to
remaining inadequacies, and of the human values which gov-
find a basis for understanding, stability, and peace with dignity.
ern our system.
To negotiate is risky. It is, in the words of Hubert Humphrey,
Democracy works best. A closed, tightly-controlled society
something like crossing a rapid stream by walking on slippery
tied in knots by a repressive bureaucratic system, cannot com-
rocks. The possibility of a fall is on every side, but it is the only
pete in a world in which economic development and the cre-
way to get across.
ative power which it produces are all important. Rapid tech-
For us, peace is not merely the absence of war. A genuine
nological change, stimulated by an information explosion that
and desirable peace is, to paraphrase Niebuhr, built only on
knows no national boundaries, requires the vitality that comes
the foundation of justice, freedom, and the rule of law. These
from freedom. There is an inescapable link between human
are not merely abstract ideals. These are real living values that
liberty, democracy, and economic well-being.
have guided our nation since its founding.
We hope the time is at hand when Soviet authorities, look-
All of us and our societies fall short of our aspirations. We
ing at the energy of the West, comprehend that repressive
grow by stretching to reach them. As we do so, however, let us
societies in our day cannot achieve economic health, inner
be reassured by the conviction that the future lies with free-
stability, or true security. We hope Soviet leadership today
dom because there can be no lasting stability in societies that
realizes that its historic aim of achieving Communism through
would deny it. Only freedom can release the constructive ener-
violence has no place in this nuclear age. We hope Soviet
gies of men and women to work toward reaching new heights.
authorities will join us in making the commitment that our
A human being has the capacity to aspire, to achieve, to dream,
survival as a civilization depends on the mutual realization
and to do. Our task is to stretch ourselves to come closer to
that we must live under rules of responsible international
that realization. With its realization, we not only find the path
behavior. We hope - and there are encouraging signs to bol-
to peace, we find peace.
ster that hope. But as yet, we, regrettably, cannot trust.
The major obstacle in the path toward realization is within
But even as we cannot yet trust, we have a responsibility to
ourselves. I not only refer to the metaphysical or to the nature
ourselves to observe developments in the Soviet Union care-
of man here, whatever that may be. The obstacle is also struc-
fully and to do so with open eyes and an open mind. The Soviet
tural. I note de Tocqueville's 19th century observation that "it
Government is going through what appears to be an historical
is especially in the conduct of their foreign relations that
strip tease as layer after layer of deceptive myths keep getting
democracies appear to be decidedly inferior to other Govern-
removed and replaced with hard unpleasant truths about the
ments." We must achieve the firm unifying sense of purpose,
past. There have been significant changes within the U.S.S.R.
steadiness, and strength that is indispensable for effective for-
President Gorbachev has shown himself in a dramatic way
eign policy decision making. We must insist that our political
willing to reconsider past views. The words glasnost and per-
community resist the temptation of partisan politics and insti-
estroika have been repeated so extensively that the ideas they
tutional rivalry to develop the consensus adequate to meet our
represent may well take on a meaning and dynamism of their
responsibilities.
own which could become internally irreversible.
Effective diplomacy requires the availability of power.
We must challenge Soviet rhetoric into reality; and we must
Indeed, it has been said that diplomacy without arms is like
not fear those changes no matter how they may require us to
music without instruments. But power today cannot be exer-
alter our own rhetoric and modify our own perceptions. We
cised effectively in our democracy without a broad consensus
can welcome Soviet use of words such as "democracy" and
LCD?
in support of that policy. Consensus - not unanimity -
"glasnost"; and even though we must remind them that their
requires broad agreement and understanding between the
words are too often contradicted by deeds, the continued use
President and the Congress. This in turn means that our pol-
of the words may create standards that will more firmly estab-
icies require an identification with our country's values and
lish them in their society. We welcome the news that Soviet
aspirations. We are as a nation painfully coming to that real-
military doctrine will in the future be a defensive one, but
ization.
since we have not yet seen evidence of this change in the struc-
G.K. Chesterton summarized his studies of our country by
ture of their forces, we must keep a healthy skepticism as we
declaring that the United States is a "nation with the soul of
challenge them to make the promised changes.
a church." This must be understood-as-we seek the basis for
President Gorbachev's task is a formidable one. The
national consensus in foreign policy. We require moral justi-
U.S.S.R. is not apt easily or quickly to undergo what Jonathan
fications for our actions.
Edwards called a "great awakening," or see a blinding light on
Our political values and the character traits that have helped
the road to Damascus. Their heavy bureaucratic crust of tra-
us build the most dynamic and open society in recorded history
dition is thick and not easily cracked. The fundamental nature
is a source of inspiration to most of the world. It should be a
390
VITAL SPEECHES OF THE DAY
source of inspiration for us as well. We cannot take it for
Our way is best. Let us say so. What democracy promises
granted. Last year, President Chaim Herzog of Israel was in
and delivers is to put the fate of peoples in their own hands,
Washington. In a speech before both Houses of Congress he
with a chance for success, for happiness, for self-fulfillment. It
sought to encourage the American people by reminding us
is not arrogant for us to proclaim the virtues or our own system
that we have every right to be proud of our country and our
because it casts no credit on us. We are not the ones who
democracy. There are, he said, hundreds of millions of people
created American democracy. We are merely its beneficiaries
in our world "who suffer bondage, inhumanity, poverty." They
with an opportunity to strengthen it for succeeding genera-
"have never known and do not experience the gifts of human
tions. It is only understandable, furthermore, for us to wish
freedom." To these people, the United States is "a shining
similar blessings for other peoples.
beacon of hope." They draw courage and inspiration from our
Abraham Lincoln in his day said that "America is the last
moral fabric. These people, he urged us to remember, realize
great home of mankind." It still is. Our political values have
what the American dream means to the world.
helped us build the most dynamic and open society in recorded
Let us not forget our good fortune as Americans. Democ-
history, a source of inspiration to most of the world. It is a
racy is a great ideal and deserves passionate devotion. It
promise of a better tomorrow for the hundreds of millions of
is the political embodiment of our religious values. In fulfill-
people who have not known the gifts of human freedom. The
ing our responsibility as citizens of this democracy, there is no
future lies with liberty, human digity, and democracy. To pre-
room for moral neutrality. The idea that somehow power is
serve and expand these values is our special responsibility. We
bad, that superpowers are worse, with one superpower more or
cannot escape that burden. But more than a burden and
less as bad as the other, is a nihilistic formula for defeat. There
responsibility, we should look upon it as an exciting opportu-
is an unmistakable difference between a prison yard and a
nity.
meadow.
Thank you.
The Deficit Time Bomb
THE PROBLEM THAT WON'T GO AWAY
By J. PETER GRACE, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, W. R. Grace & Co.
Delivered to the Economic Club of Detroit, Detroit, Michigan, March 13, 1989
T
HANK YOU very much, Ted. It's a great privilege to be
Now our company had a pretty good year in 1988, with
invited back - almost four years to the day - since I
earnings per share up 35.5 percent. However, we would have
last addressed this prestigious forum. The last time I
reported a great year if we could have ignored one third of our
was here, I got bumped. I was told, "Forget it, we don't want
interest expense. Rightly so, the law says we can't do that. But
you, we've got somebody else."
for the Government it's "do as I say not as I do." They simply
When that "somebody else" turned out to be President
ignore any interest owed and forming an essential part of gov-
Reagan, I didn't feel so bad. And I was invited back a few
ernment trust funds like Social Security and Civil Service
weeks later anyway.
retirement.
So now I'm expecting President Bush to show up at any
If we add back interest owed to Federal trust funds, the
moment.
deficit of $161 billion in 1989 rises to $212 billion, $51 billion
I'm here today to talk about one of today's three great lies.
or 31.7 percent more.
The two lies I won't go into now are:
Apparently, the Government feels that what we don't know
(1) Your check is in the mail; and
won't hurt us. This may be true. Ignoring the deficit may not
(2) I'm from the Government and I'm here to help you.
hurt us but it certainly must hurt our children or our grand-
The lie I would like to talk about says "the Federal deficit
children. And this brings me back to the second defense of
doesn't matter." People who say this point to two facts.
"the deficit doesn't matter" crowd, which is that, despite the
(1) The deficit is declining in nominal terms (from a peak
deficits, we've had six years of steady economic growth.
of $221 billion in 1986 to $161 billion in the current year) and
Refuting this argument requires more intuitive than empir-
in real terms (from a peak of 6.3 percent of GNP in 1983 to 3.2
ical evidence. For example, does anyone in this audience
percent in 1989); and
believe that the Federal debt, which has grown at an average
(2) Despite the massive deficits we've had since 1982, the
rate of more than $250 billion per year over the past four years
economy has chugged along, growing at an average 4.0 percent
to $2.9 trillion, won't ultimately have disastrous consequences?
annual clip from 1982-1988, one of the longest sustained
This year 56 cents of every dollar paid by individual tax-
expansions on record.
payers will be used to service the Government's debt burden.
To refute point (1) is simple. The deficit is declining because
By comparison, in 1979 only 28 cents of individual tax receipts
the Government ignores much of its most rapidly growing
was required for Federal debt service. Therefore, the burden
major area of expense - which is interest. For example, in
of Federal debt service on taxpayers has doubled in just ten
1989 the Government reports its interest expense will be $165.7
years. If we continue this course, by the turn of the century,
billion. In reality, the Government will spend $238.9 billion to
more than 100 percent of every dollar you pay in taxes will be
cover interest on its debt this year, $73.2 billion or 44.2 percent
required to meet the Government's interest bill. For your tax
more than reported.
dollars, you'll get no Air Force, no FBI, no National Park
STANLEY GAULT
OF GOODYEAR
nancial
orld®
Bank Bailouts:
No Limitto
Taxpayer
Liability?
Can "Wolfpacks"
Save
Cincinnati
Milacron?
Curbing Abusive
Limited
the
Partnership
Rollups
13
02583
ceoyear
0
842456
3
New American
Schools
Development
Corporation
DISING SECTION
70
FW MARCH 31, 1992
NEW AMERICAN SCHOOLS
Break the Mold
A TALK WITH LAMAR ALEXANDER
AND DAVID KEARNS
HE WORLD HAS CHANGED AND
ly the same as it was in 1970. We spent all the Eighties
1
our schools haven't" states
talking about it and not getting anywhere. We have prob-
ably 200, 300, 500 good programs going on around the
Education Secretary Lamar
country. What we have got to do is take the ideas that look
Alexander. "Our schools are in
as if they will really work and stitch them together, to move
the whole system forward.
a sort of time warp. The family
"Because the second point is that, with all the activities
and the community have changed, but
we've got going now. the Japanese and the Northern Euro-
peans are improving their school systems at a faster rate
the way our children learn has not."
than we are-the gap is getting wider, not smaller."
Schools in the rest of the world
Alexander likes the potential of the new strategy. "We
believe that if thousands of communities begin to create
have kept up, however, and American schools now lag bad-
truly New American Schools, that there will be a line around
ly. So, comments Deputy Secretary David Kearns: "What
the block a mile long of families who want their children
I like to say is: How do you leapfrog the East Asians and
to attend these schools," he exclaims. "That, in turn, will
the Northern Europeans? Not try to be just as good as they
force all schools to increase their rethinking of what they
are. I am rather offended by the concept of striving for a
school system as good as the Japanese. Why shouldn't we
have the best school system in the whole world? And one
that is uniquely American?"
"We have learned during the I980s that trying to fix
schools piece by piece doesn't work very well," Alexander
points out. "The system is not just in one rut-it has fallen
into several deep ruts. And almost all of the energy and
enthusiasm for change can be exhausted just trying to gain
agreement about fixing one.
"Sometimes it is easier to start over," he suggests. And
that is what The New American Schools Development Cor-
poration has been created to do. "There are a great many
wonderful innovations in education, and many people have
started to fix whole schools, with great success," Alexander
acknowledges. "But we are talking about literally starting
over to break the mold, to fix whole schools from scratch."
Kearns amplifies: "To those who claim that they are
already doing good work on helping the schools, and that
Lamar Alexander and David Kearns
we don't need a project as big as New American Schools,
I have two things to say. One, we have made absolutely
This section was developed, written and edited by
no progress. The output coming out of the schools is exact-
Willard C. Rappleye Jr., FW Special Projects Editor.
TISING SECTIC
74
FW
MARCH 31, 1992
NEW AMERICAN SCHOOLS
were doing and be a powerful incentive to make the radical
to rethink what we are doing, change our attitudes and
changes in the education system that will be necessary to
values, get our feet more firmly on the ground. and be
help this country reach the six national education goals by
prepared to compete in a very different world.
the year 2000.
"Too many Americans have assumed that what was good
"The New American Schools Development Corporation
enough for them in school was good enough for their
is a private, independent corporation separate from the U.S.
children," Alexander declares. "That's simply not true.
government," he explains. "But it is an integral part of the
"So the whole basis of our education strategy is to help
AMERICA 2000 education strategy that begins with the six
people realize how the world has changed, that it will take
national education goals which the governors and the Presi-
a radical set of adjustments in our schools and in our accep-
dent agreed upon in 1989. at the education summit in
tance of educational responsibilities at home, to fit ourselves
Charlottesville. The goals include all children arriving at
in those changes, and then to get on with it.
school ready to learn, a 90% high school graduation rate,
"That's why the President worked with the governors to
all children learning a core academic curriculum to world-
create for the first time in America's history the national
class standards. first in math and science as a goal for
education goals. That is why we're working with educators
American students, a literate skilled work force, and. finally,
to create a consensus about world-class standards in math.
drug-free and violence-free schools."
science, English. history and geography. That is why we're
working with states to change their curriculum frameworks.
EARNS KNOWS THAT NASDC HAS TO BUILD
That is why we are seeking to create a series of American
K
a bigger, more urgent constituency. The
Achievement Tests so communities and parents can know
question of universal high standards, for
how their children and schools are doing, whether the
example, has "some poor communities
children are learning so that they can live, work and com-
very worried. IfI were in one, I would love
pete in a world that includes children from Seoul and Tokyo
to ask them: 'You mean for your commu-
and Hamburg and Budapest. That is why we want to give
nity you're suggesting low standards?
teachers much more flexibility in the classroom and the
What you need are the highest standards." Then I would
spending of federal money. why the President has proposed
say we should work together to build a system for your com-
one million "opportunity scholarships' to give middle- and
munity that will be different from a system for a rich one,
low-income families more of the same choices of schools
but the standards must be just as high, or else the com-
that wealthy people already have.
munity will always stay poor. What we are really trying to
"And that is why we are encouraging communities to
accomplish is to give poor people the same chances that
create thousands of New American Schools."
rich people have."
The needs of the school system are daunting, Alexander
Initial support for NASDC has been encouraging, with
acknowledges. "Standards and curriculum are out of date.
upwards of $40 million already raised, toward its goal of
schools are uninteresting. Children watch too much TV.
$200 million over four or five years. Kearns admits that he
parents are too busy to keep up with what is going on.
has to overcome some reluctance on the part of companies
Teachers are untrained in many subjects. And, more than
that believe they are already doing all they can. "We have
anything else, we probably have lower expectations for our
to convince them that we are not trying to compete with
children than, for example. Asian parents do.
all the good things they are doing out there, and somehow
"None of this should cause the U.S. to hang its head and
dilute their efforts." But many understand "that this is a
wring its hands," he insists. "We are perfectly capable. in
one-time request, to give us the leverage to make us the best
fact more capable than any other country in the world. of
in the world"-like Alcoa, which contributed $1 million.
educating all of our citizens to a higher standard. We are
Chairman Paul O'Neill told Kearns: "I don't even want to
still the country with 25% of all the world's wealth. We
debate that. This is the best damn idea I know about." And
already spend more per student on elementary and second-
many others have promised to join in, once they have seen
ary than any other country except Switzerland. We have
results; on the whole, Kearns professes to be "extraordinari-
the best system of higher education in the world today. We
ly encouraged" by financial support to date.
simply need to focus our attention, marshal our enormous
"The greatest obstacle to America's future is complacen-
capacity for reinvention on elementary education and realize
cy," Alexander points out, "the feeling in America that the
that it involves not only fixing the schools but fixing our at-
nation is at risk, but I'm OK.
titudes at home and in the community.
"That is gradually beginning to change," he contends.
"That is what AMERICA 2000 is all about," he concludes.
"Americans are uneasy, because we are now beginning to
"And the idea of the New American School-starting from
realize as a nation what most businesses began to feel in
scratch to create thousands of new schools that are among
the early Eighties. World competition is causing all of us
the best in the world-is at the core of what we are trying to do."
76
FW MARCH 31, 1992
NEW AMERICAN SCHOOLS
R&D for the System
CEOs'
EVALUATION REPORTS
HE PROBLEMS OF AMERICAN
;
a high place on the national agenda.
Д
schools have been a shifting
"Now when Bush says he wants to be the Education
kaleidoscope of discovery
President, wants to lead the system into improvement. to
state the need and set the direction, it is in a leadership
and response, which only
role, not in a sense of command and control," Whitmore
emphasizes. "I see no conflict in that with our traditional
now is coming under pow-
practices."
erful lenses to focus change.
The problem has forced its way to the top of the national
Political leadership is being
agenda, he observes. "We" ve got a serious, serious disaster
on our hands. It is not just a problem of the inner cities.
exercised, starting at the top with
If that was all it was, we could focus on that and raise the
direction from President George Bush and extending to the
worst kids up. But that is not the whole problem. The
organized efforts of state governors under the vigorous
problem is that there is not a school in this country that
has high enough expectations." Whitmore declares. "We
administration of Roy Romer of Colorado. Remarkably,
among all the institutions concerned, including the education
do not have world-class expectations of our very best kids.
establishment itself, the U.S. business community has moved
Yet that is what we have to have if we are going to survive.
to the forefront in recognizing the problems and proposing
solutions. It has done so in various forms of creativity,
commitment and effectiveness, but with a cumulative and
increasing energy that bodes well for the future.
The newest, and potentially the most powerful, of these
lenses for change is the New American Schools Development
Corporation. Created last summer at Bush's behest and
funded by corporate contributions, it applies the classic
business practice of finding solutions to persistent problems
by assigning start-up research.
In the words of RJR Nabisco Chairman Louis V. Gerstner
Jr., who is also vice chairman of NASDC, it is "R&D for
the schools."
Kay R. Whitmore, chairman of Eastman Kodak, and a
director of NASDC, welcomes Bush's unprecedented assertion
Louis V. Gerstner Jr., RJR Nabisco
of leadership. "This nation decided 200 years ago that the
President should have nothing to do with education," he
notes. "We have always had a dispersed educational system,
INNER-CITY KIDS HAVE A RIGHT
which has historically been left to the states and the local
TO BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE TO THE
school boards. That is still our basic philosophy-which was
SAME HIGH STANDARDS AS RICH
fine until now, when the problems in our schools have taken
KIDS IN THE SUBURBS.
TISING SE
78
FW
MARCH 31, 1992
NEW AMERICAN SCHOOLS
"The best thing Bush has done for education is to name
Lamar Alexander as secretary and David Kearns as his
concept that the private sector would step in without all the
deputy, to establish high national expectations of our
inhibitions and bureaucracy and regulations to see if there
education system."
couldn't be some experimental work done on what the
To do that, they are pushing the New Schools idea. "Is
education system should look like. to innovate and
that going to solve the problem?" Whitmore asks.
experiment, for better ways to deliver education. That's what
"Absolutely not.
got me involved.
"Is it going to make sure that everything changes?
"As a nation, we have a real problem with an underclass
Absolutely not. Does it say that in some cases we ought to
that is growing much more rapidly than in any previous
go off and just completely break the mold? Recognize that
period, and perpetuating itself." Jones warns. "Education.
we have a system that was generated to work for the farm
which used to be the ticket up and out. is not doing that job.
communities of the 1900s, that we are having some trouble
"The value of the New American Schools idea," he points
breaking away from? Yes," he says.
out, "is that it takes the shackles off and says: Let's open
"Let's go in and try some experimental things that are
our minds and think big to make education something that
more bold than what we would normally be doing, and let's
improves the productivity, the competitiveness, the quality
develop some entirely new schools.
of all the students going through the system."
"It" a piece-I think an effective piece-of a very broad
James J. Renier, chairman of Honevwell Inc., and an
puzzle."
NASDC director, concedes that business "has been involved
James R. Jones, chairman of the American Stock
with education for years. But I don't think that business.
Exchange, and an NASDC director, is "intrigued by the
even today, really understands the extent of the need that
exists in public education. It was not until the publication of
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NEW AMERICAN SCHOOLS
A. Nation at Risk in 1983 that the crescendo started to build.
agenda in the schools have caused what appears to be great
And it was not until four or five years ago that the problems
for one city or town, to turn out to be irrelevant for another.
of education really hit business hard."
"That has been a problem. But we could solve it if NASDC
NASDC now comes on as a true expression of best
could institutionalize the discoveries."
corporate practice. he finds. "Just as I don't run the business
John L. Clendenin, chairman of BellSouth. and an
of the divisions of this company-I set strategies. I set the
NASDC director, sees a need for long-term Presidential
vision and assign corporate R&D to help determine the future
commitment. He was one of a group of CEOs who told Bush
direction in which we are going-and, definitely, to set the
shortly before the Education Summit: "You are not going
vision for the future. That was missing before."
to solve this problem. No single American President is going
The function of the NASDC board will be "to preserve
to be in office long enough to solve it. This may take two
the integrity of the entire process." Renier declares, "so as
or three or four presidencies."
to bring out the creativity, with the hope that this giant system
During recent years, "the education arena has become
out here will be interested in picking up the technology, and
one of high urgency for a lot of business people." he observes.
doing something with it. Because one thing we discovered
"as a matter of survival. We ve got to fix the public education
in all the previous studies-there were thousands and
thousands of initiatives between industries and schools and
system to turn out the kind of workforce that is going to be
required as the information age and the high-technology world
nothing being institutionalized of any significance.
spirals forward.
"For two big reasons." he believes. "One, a lot of the
"We've all come to the conclusion that routine change
time the people who have to implement the ideas have no
is not going to solve this. We're going to have to come up
ownership of the process. And two. the extremes of the social
with some new ideas and applications. Yet the bureaucracy
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TAKE ADVANTAGE OF CHANGESM
NEW AMERICAN SCHOOLS
of our typical school organization doesn't lend itself to funding
look at the governments in this country. the business
new ideas. innovative solutions. new concepts. trials. You've
community. the labor unions. the churches-for 20 years
got to have a risk-capital source in order to do that."
they ve been wrestling with modernity. and the problems of
Clendenin insists. "We need a way to look at some
bringing themselves up to the demands of the current world.
educational approaches that are different from run-of-the-
"Some of them are doing better than others." Gerstner-
mill efforts."
acknowledges. "The public education system. though. has
probably done least well in its adaptation to change. for a
HAT IS WHAT NASDC WILL PROVIDE. HE BE-
lot of reasons.
A
lieves. "Then. after the effort has proven to
"Most institutions do not change unless pressure comes
be meritorious. it has got to be put in and
from outside." he emphasizes. "Typically. businesses change
be absorbed by the school systems. As the
because they have shareholders. they have boards. a
new ideas work. and availability and
marketplace. But the educational establishment is controlled
awareness and knowledge about these new
by the establishment itself. and it is frightened by the prospect
techniques spread through the educational
of change."
system. a slow 10- or 20-year process will evolve that will
Even business as a whole. with all its individual corporate
bootstrap America's education system up."
efforts. has not accepted the responsibility of insisting upon
RJR Nabisco's Gerstner recognizes the difficulty of making
major change in education. Gerstner charges. Most of its
changes in the existing system. and the urgency of making
efforts have been to support the system as it exists. and hardly
good ones as fast as possible: he is looking to NASDC as
any of its leaders are prepared to turn the whole system upside
a powerful agent. once it produces models. Many businesses
down. which is what he contends it needs.
are already working with the schools on new programs. he
"That brings us to NASDC." he savs. "One way to deal
points out. but even the most successful programs do not
with the bureaucracy. the problem of changing an existing
transfer easilv. "Unfortunately. education is a local industrv."
institution. is to totally redesign the learning environments
he notes. "not a national industry. It's not three automobile
for the future. That is what the role of government should
companies. not six steel companies. not 15 food companies.
be. It ought to be responsible for R&D. What Lamar and
It's thousands of school districts. all autonomous.
David have designed is a program in which we can go to
"You're talking about a local business that has got to be
the best minds to design the learning environment for the
changed. schoolhouse by schoolhouse. district by district. state
21st century. That's classic R&D.
bv state. And the fundamental problem with schools is like
"Business should support this sort of thing because it
the problem with a lot of institutions in this country: They've
understands the need to develop prototypes. to develop R&D.
gotten a little ossified and unresponsive to the last quarter
to develop new ways to think about business." Gerstner
of the 20th century. let alone the start of the 21st. As you
contends. "The great buzzword of American industry today
Kay R. Whitmore, Eastman Kodak
James R. Jones, American Stock Exchange
THE PROBLEM IS THAT THERE IS
EDUCATION, WHICH USED TO BE
NOT A SCHOOL ANYWHERE IN THIS
THE TICKET UP AND OUT OF THE
COUNTRY THAT HAS HIGH ENOUGH
UNDERCLASS, IS NOT DOING THAT
EXPECTATIONS.
JOB TODAY.
82
FW MARCH 31. 1992
NEW AMERICAN SCHOOLS
is re-engineering systems. Well. that is what we need to do
to educate everybody in the state on what it means."
with the schools.
To Ashland, that is a lot. "We were just generally
"It's like when people go out and build a new factory-
dissatisfied with the situation," Hall recalls. "We tried to
they benchmark. So if we could get the educational
transfer employees from out of state into Kentucky and they
institutions thinking that way and give them some models
didn't want to come because the school svstem was so bad.
of what a school in the 21st century should look like. that's
So when we got this reform, we jumped into supporting it
what NASDC can do."
big time with a lot of advertising, and speeches and meetings.
Gerstner knows that fear of standardization will be one
and a school bus that we outfitted with exhibits that we send
of the obstacles to widespread adoption of NASDC models,
out to every county in the state. to raise awareness in support
but rejects that argument "as an enormous red herring
of the new programs.
thrown out by people who don't want to change the system.
"There is no perfect standard in anything," he exclaims.
UR GOAL IS TO LIFT OUR SCHOOL SYSTEM UP
We all have to manage in an imperfect world. And having
should a child in Wisconsin not know as much about
O
to where it's going to be graduating people
said that. I tell you that I believe that in most subjects-not
who can go on to college. or technical school.
just math-it is not impossible to get a group of educators
or right into the work force," he explains.
together to determine what children should learn. Why
The process is simple. and could set
examples in some respects for New Schools
American history as a child in Virginia?
proposals. For instance, he savs: "We want
"There's a lot of discrimination in some of those
to get every kid into kindergarten," which would be a dramatic
comments. too: Why should we be giving these inner-city
step forward. "We are going to try to have local school im-
kids the same standards as these rich kids in the suburbs?
provement councils, but whether we do or don't, we will have
It's going to hurt them." Baloney: to say that inner-city kids
a very formal system of testing, at 4th, 8th and 12th grade.
can perform is outrageous. They have a right to be held
If a school doesn't improve the composite of those test scores.
accountable to the same high standards."
that school will be penalized-in fact, the whole school board
John R. Hall. chairman of Ashland Oil, and a director
may be taken out of office. And if a school shows constant
of NASDC. has been getting a good preview of what
improvement, it will be given more money."
corporations could accomplish: In his home state of
James K. Baker, chairman of Arvin Industries, and a vice
Kentucky. the legislature passed the most extensive school
chairman of NASDC, has been working on the education
reform program in the U.S. in the wake of a 1990 state
problem at the corporate and state level for years. because
Supreme Court decision that the existing system was
he perceives it as an overwhelming threat to society. rather
unconstitutional. "Now we're involved, along with LPS and
than one of world competitiveness, as so many businessmen
Humana. in what we call the Kentucky Partnership. trying
do. "I can tell you that business is going to be competitive.
James J. Renier, Honeywell Inc.
John L. Clendenin, BellSouth
THE BOARD MUST PRESERVE THE
FOR A BUREAUCRACY THAT DOES
INTEGRITY OF THE PROCESS,
NOT FUND INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS,
BRING OUT CREATIVITY,
A RISK-CAPITAL SOURCE IS
INSTITUTIONALIZE DISCOVERIES.
REQUIRED.
84
FW MARCH 31, 1992
NEW AMERICAN SCHOOLS
no matter what happens to the schools." he contends. "We
through a carefully organized company-v ide program of
find the people to do the jobs. They may be coming in on
individual mentoring. "We wondered what we could do
a boat: or we can put the work on a boat to send to them.
to have a maximum impact." savs Chairman Lester M.
Or I can hire anybody I want for any job. right here in Indiana.
Alberthal. "even though we didn't feel that we could define
I don't think it's a competitive issue. And that's where I differ
the nationwide program that was going to solve all these ills.
from most business people."
"But we did feel that there were two things we could
do. One was to heighten the awareness of our own em-
HE HEART OF THE PROBLEM IS SOCIETAL.
ployees who were young parents. or planning to be parents.
1
Baker emphasizes. "We have to reach out
to see the importance of the parent in the education
for the kids who feel that the system has done
process. And we wanted to try to make a difference to as
them wrong-kids who haven't been able to
many kids in the schools as we could who lacked good
find their way. got turned off and were never
parental influence. Now. we know we are not going to solve
brought back into the svstem-who
every kid's family problem. But we did feel that we represent
tomorrow are going to be wards of the state.
a resource that. when applied individually, could be helpful
The terrible thing is, the kids are right." he exclaims. "The
in many cases.
system has not done right. to nurture. to preserve them as
"So we went into schools in districts where we are
a very good investment. We have failed to do it."
operating-and there is a whole set of rationales on how
He envisions the New American Schools process as a great
we picked them-and formed partnerships to put our
engine to reward the reformers who make the patterns that
resources-these volunteers-to work with them to make
will encourage others to join in. creating and reinforcing
the school better. Each program is pretty much tailored to
local change.
what the principal or superintendent and some of our key
"You know." he adds. "for a national government initia-
people decide is best to do. And. without exception. a major
tive. I have higher hopes of this working than anything I've
part of every partnership is a commitment to memoring.
seen. It says to us that a government Department. like
"It's really K through 8. for the most effect." Alberthal
Education, which certainly has funding every year. ought
points out. "because by the time they reach 8th grade. if
to involve itself very deeply in research, just like NASA or
they haven't had some positive influence somewhere. it
NIH. We are setting up to do the research that should have
going to be that much more difficult to reach them.
been taking place all along."
"I don't know any other way. You can't hire enough
Many other corporations that are not members of NASDC
psychologists: you can't assign enough social workers: you
have already identified specific problems in the schools. and
can't have every teacher educated in all these things. What
have launched bold ventures to deal with them.
it really boils down to is that a kid needs to feel that someone
EDS Corp. has decided to concentrate on the children.
cares. And if they don't have that at home. and they are
John R. Hall, Ashland Oil
James K. Baker, Arvin Industries
IF A SCHOOL DOESN'T IMPROVE ITS
FOR THE KIDS WHO FEEL THAT
COMPOSITE TEST SCORES, THE
THE SYSTEM HAS DONE THEM
WHOLE SCHOOL BOARD MAY BE
WRONG, THE TERRIBLE THING IS,
TAKEN OUT OF OFFICE.
THEY ARE RIGHT.
86
FW MARCH 31. 1992
NEW AMERICAN SCHOOLS
part of a big class so they can't get it at school, then that
School; Stay off Drugs" program, along with extensive
is something we can offer.
mentoring and tutoring activities by soldiers and their families
"You know, we put a lot of emphasis on our employees-
to help individual students.
our biggest resource. our biggest asset; our thinking was that
Wincup attributes the high quality of recruits these davs
would probably be our maximum contribution. We can have
in large measure to improved techniques. from "essentially
an impact that's probably a lot more than throwing money
not knowing how to recruit. in 1973, because they just took
at a problem, and the side benefit is that we get a plus out
volunteers and draftees, to a thoroughly sophisticated
of it for our employees, SO it's a morale issue. And, if it's
operation, right on through market analysis." augmented
good for the kids and it's good for our employees--well,
by substantial college-entitlement incentives, "which appeals
you know there's not many win/win situations in this day
to the parents and influencers like crazy." The combination
and age."
of reduced demand and improved technique has resulted
John V. Roach, chairman of Tandy Corp., focuses on
in the Army recruiting a constantly improving quality of
motivation of both students and teachers in the high schools
youngsters coming out of the school system.
through a company-sponsored program, which emerged
from modest origins in the Fort Worth school district and
ICHARD M. ROSENBERG. CHAIRMAN OF BANK-
was expanded in 1989 into the Tandy Technology Scholars.
R
America, speaks for a number of CEOs who
This recognizes the top 100 students and the top 100 teachers
believe that what they are already doing
in math and science around the U.S.; about 12,000 high
represents as much of a commitment to
schools now participate. "We're very satisfied with the pro-
solving the problems of the schools as
gram." Roach asserts. "You know. the whole education issue
anything that they might be able to con-
is so complex, and we certainly understand the arguments
tribute by supporting NASDC, and that
for the preschoolers and the lower-school problems, and
they are already producing impressive results.
for the students who are not in this top percentage that we
Rosenberg is enthusiastic about how the bank puts its
are really shooting at. but certainly there has been a lot of
resources to work on specific needs of the schools and the
response to just recognizing the champions of the classroom."
children. He cites the success of classes that volunteers from
From a purely practical standpoint. G. Kim Wincup, Assis-
the company run every year in its computer rooms for an
tant Secretary of the Army for Manpower and Reserve Affairs,
Explorer Scout troop of inner-citv bovs and girls. "The kids
looks upon the school system as the primary source for
learn how to program an IBM PC. They get a lecture on
recruits, and finds the "quality of the production base" to
careers in banking-the kind of job they could do with a
be good.
high-school diploma. These are kids who have never seen
The recruiting establishment has been very aggressive in
a PC before in their lives. Not in their schools. and certainly
trying to improve the schools through a major "Stay in
not in their homes. And they love it. It has been very. very
Lester M. Alberthal, EDS Corp.
John V. Roach, Tandy Corp.
KIDS NEED TO FEEL THAT
SATISFACTION IN A
SOMEONE CARES, AND IF THEY
LOT OF RESPONSE
CANT GET THAT AT HOME, IT IS
TO JUST RECOGNIZING
SOMETHING WE CAN OFFER.
CHAMPIONS OF THE CLASSROOM.
88
FW
MARCH 31, 1992
NEW AMERICAN SCHOOLS
successful."
can do is to get ideas into focus. and demonstrate support
Rosenberg describes the way the bank, along with IBM,
from the President and from leaders throughout the U.S.
offers all newly appointed high school principals the same
The important thing is getting commitment. because almost
kind of management training programs it provides its own
anything will be positive if you can get people rallied "round."
executives. "They ve never had that kind of training. They've
And then, once the public has come to care enough. and
been teachers. We help them become managers.
the new examples of successful programs become more
"What we have done." Rosenberg observes, "is work out
visible, he suggests, replication will happen "through
a variety of programs with individual schools and districts,
demand pull."
to help effect change. So we are quite sympathetic to the
While McDonnell Douglas is not a member of NASDC.
goals of NASDC. But we're not quite sure that an overall
it will be supporting one of the proposals for a grant through
umbrella is the only route. and therefore we have to be
a citywide initiative led by Sanford N. McDonnell. former
somewhat judicious in our response. We cannot support some
chairman of the company. and cousin of the incumbent.
national program to the exclusion of all the programs that
"So it was natural that when he asked if we would be willing
we are evolving in California."
to be a sponsor, we said yes."
ARCO has taken the lead in an alliance of diverse Los
OHN MCDONNELL. CHAIRMAN OF MCDONNELL
Angeles institutions to think through. create and set in motion
J
Douglas. is troubled that education is not a top
a system-wide program to restructure the city's schools. which
priority of most Americans at this point. And
could. in itself. serve as one of models NASDC hopes to
until parents take education as a top priority,
produce.
we can do all sorts of innovative things. and it
Remarkably. savs Robert E. Wycoff. ARCO's president
is not going to get spread around."
and chief operating officer. the members of the alliance.
McDonnell Douglas has taken a serious look
who had all been working independently on the problem
at the problems in its hometown of St. Louis. increasing
for years, found that once they joined together. there was
its commitment to improving K-12 education there from
little disagreement on what to do. "Out of all the experience.
$10.000 four years ago to nearly $700.000 today. drawing
and the stacks of studies. we all had similar programs. so
from other sectors of its corporate annual-contributions
that all we had to do was put them together. The only
budget of S8 million to S9 million. "But we have been going
difference was that some had them organized A. B. C. and
out in a number of directions." he acknowledges. "We have
others had them B. C. A.
not vet figured out a really good focus within the area to
"And that's true nationwide. if you really look at it." Wycoff
know what we should be doing."
observes. "There is hardly anybody that doesn't agree on
For that reason. the premise of New American Schools
what a school ought to look like. The trick is getting there.
has considerable appeal. McDonnell states. "What NASDC
"Oddly enough. during a year of operation. we have not
G. Kim Wincup. Assistant Secretary of the Army
Richard M. Rosenberg, BankAmerica
INVOLVEMENT, MARKET ANALYSIS,
SYMPATHETIC-BUT NOT TO THE
COLLEGE INCENTIVES, KEEP ON
EXCLUSION OF EVOLVING
RAISING THE QUALITY OF THE
PROGRAMS WITH INDIVIDUAL
RECRUITERS' PRODUCTION BASE.
SCHOOLS AND DISTRICTS.
90
FW MARCH 31. 1992
NEW AMERICAN SCHOOLS
encountered any resistance." Wycoff notes. "Inertia, yes.
so new that you might consider it one of the I.boratory models
That is bound to be a big force in a district of more than
they are trying to create, so to speak."
600.000 students. But aside from that, not any opposition.
George M. C. Fisher, chairman of Motorola, is more
We would have expected. naturally. that people who would
sanguine than most over the progress being made. "I'm
be directly affected by the change-administrators, some
one of those optimists who thinks that out of all this fer-
teachers-would present some opposition. And they still
ment there will be a lot of good ideas, and out of those
may. But so far the school boards. the heads of the schools
good ideas will come systemic change, and we will solve
themselves. the head of the union, are all in support."
this problem," he maintains. "Right now, I am a person
The Los Angeles plan has seven parts. First is governance,
who believes we are over the worst part. Not all has been
"which would turn upside down this top-directed central
done that needs to be done," he acknowledges, "but that
system. and empower the schools themselves, basically by
will happen in time."
funding the schools directly instead of funding the district,
thus allowing the schools to control their own budgets."
NE OF THE RESERVATIONS FISHER HAS WITH
Second is accountability. "a system of assessing progress
a series of interim measures such as attendance, graduation
O
the NASDC approach. he says, "is that there
by determining how well the kids are learning, at first through
are pockets of excellence in our education
system everywhere you turn, even as you
rates. how parents and teachers feel about the system, security
find that the biggest deficiencies are in the
and. eventually. as the system takes hold. the whole range
poorer areas. especially the poor urban areas.
of things that need to be measured. like college entry and
That is why I have problems with the broad
the quality of the jobs students get."
brush approach, where everybody gets a little bit better.
The other elements are management training for prin-
I think the great opportunities are to bring up the ones that
cipals: parental involvement and supplementary mentoring;
are way low.
school facilities. including not only technology, but actually
"I don't think you can lay the entire blame for our loss
working through the maze of real-estate law and practice
of competitiveness-and I use that term very generally-
to acquire perfectly usable buildings that are now standing
on K-12 education," declares Fisher, who is also chairman
empty: social services. with emphasis on student health and
of the Council on Competitiveness. "I think that is a cop-out."
safetv: and emphasis on the connection between school and
The real corporate challenge in education comes after
making a good living after graduation.
K-12, he explains. "What companies have to come to grips
As I understand the New American Schools program,
with is the recognition that they have about three times as
it is focused on tomorrow. whereas we are more interested
many years for employees' education and training as the
in fixing the existing system. Actually," Wycoff points out,
employees have had in school. In high-tech companies like
"it may be that the sum of all the things we are doing is
ours, we would say that the half-life of education of one of
John F. McDonnell, McDonnell Douglas
Robert E. Wycoff, ARCO
ONCE THE EXAMPLES OF
THE SUM OF ALL WE ARE DOING IS
SUCCESSFUL PROGRAMS BECOME
SO NEW THAT IT MIGHT BE
VISIBLE, REPLICATION WILL
CONSIDERED ONE OF THEIR
HAPPEN THROUGH DEMAND PULL.
LABORATORY MODELS.
92
FW
MARCH 31, 1992
NEW AMERICAN SCHOOLS
our technical people is something on the order of two to
ultimately install in the marketplace. Same problem.
five years. So if you don't continue to replenish the education
"I look upon NASDC as an R&D arm. What Lamar is
of the ones you have. you have to go out and get a crop
doing is trying to get the private sector interested in this.
of new young people. whom you have to indoctrinate into
in terms of money, and the energy of the people. I think
your culture. and they have to learn the business, which is
he majors in "create," getting them to start fresh. Although
a very expensive way of doing it. It's better if you believe
I'm not so sure it will be quite as clean a sheet of paper
that the people you ve got are a valuable asset in whom
as he thinks." Akers predicts-"they are going to bring in
you continue to invest-who. like property, get more and
quite a few things that have worked.
more valuable."
"At IBM, we were interested in the proposition. We know
something about R&D: we don't know so much about
OHN F. AKERS. CHAIRMAN OF IBM. BRINGS UNIQUE
education. The more we thought about it, the more we
J
perspective to NASDC. While the company is
realized how little we knew. We concluded we ought to work
not a member of NASDC. it has committed
in a multiplicity of proposals. all over the country, in various
$3 million in cash and $3 million in kind to its
projects. So we are partners with perhaps a dozen groups
work. Also. as chairman of the Business
who will compete for the New American Schools
Roundtable Education Task Force (BRT), for the
Development grants. I think that is playing to our strengths.
past two years he has been working with gov-
because it's already ongoing stuff."
ernors and state legislatures to create the political structure
Akers comes around to the matter of leadership. --I don't
and impetus for school reform.
recall any previous president talking about education the
Akers thinks "our two efforts are very simpatico." NASDC
way Bush has. don't remember any other such organized
is setting up to do research at the grass roots level. "because
approach to the problem. There was no America 2000.
that is the wav you are going to affect what goes on with
There was no Lamar Alexander in the Department. There
the student. while the BRT effort is to create a policy platform
was no private-sector R&D program."
upon which to replicate the models NASDC will create."
He recalls the BRT meeting in June 1989. where education
Replication, key as it is to success in reform, needs all
was the only topic and Bush the only speaker. "He was very
the structural support BRT can give it, he emphasizes. "It's
complimentary about IBM and Xerox and this company
going to be hard. very hard. but just as in business, that
and that company. and that we had all been able to
doesn't mean you ought not to invest in research activity,
demonstrate that we were active in the field. Then he said:
to establish any number of options that might be attractive.
'That's not good enough. I challenge you guys to do
I spend a lot of my time with our research people. who are
something more."
totally frustrated as to how you transfer good ideas from
"Well, we have. And I think we ought to be kind of pleased
a research environment to the product that people will
with the quality of leadership we have been given."
George M.C. Fisher, Motorola
John F. Akers, IBM
TO LAY THE ENTIRE BLAME FOR
AND THEN THE PRESIDENT SAID:
OUR LOSS OF COMPETITIVENESS
"THAT'S NOT GOOD ENOUGH. I
ON K-12 EDUCATION-
CHALLENGE YOU GUYS TO DO
THAT IS A COP-OUT.
SOMETHING MORE."
THE ATLANTIC MONTHLY
Fred Bergsten, of the Institute for International Econom-
that of most economists, according to Edward Yardeni,
ics, in Washington, D.C., worry about the tendency of
the chief economist at Prudential-Bache Securities, who
Washington's persistent budget deficits to leach away
is one of the most vocal of the optimists, is that main-
savings, drive up consumption, and suck in imports. Un-
stream economics focuses too much on formal macroeco-
less America takes hold of its economic destiny, they
nomic models. "Most economists don't look much at the
warn, the future offers a choice of horrors. Feckless con-
real economy," Yardeni says. "It's messy and doesn't
sumerism might ignite runaway inflation, or the Federal
translate well to models. But when you stop and look, the
Reserve might jack up interest rates so high-both to
case for a long-run boom is almost overwhelming."
head off inflation and to attract foreign savings to float the
The optimists' arguments reduce essentially to three.
buying spree-that it will cause a worldwide recession.
The first is the integration of the global goods markets.
A. Gary Shilling, the president of his own economic
Everyone knows about global financial markets. Stocks,
advisory firm, with a blue-ribbon list of Wall Street and
bonds, and bank deposits surge around the world in
corporate clients, expects a near-term global recession,
nanoseconds, riding the twinkling green blips on trad-
followed by a long and painful cycle of deflation. "The
ing-room computer screens. Integration of the manufac-
world's debt load has far outrun its collateral," he says,
turing economy is an even newer development. High-
"whether you're talking about the Third World, farm
productivity manufacturing technology, much of it
land, corporations, consumers, everything. It will take a
pioneered in Japan, is spreading rapidly throughout the
major global recession to force a debt restructuring. But
world; at the same time that big companies, and even
even coming out of the recession there will be a fierce
many medium-sized companies, are operating more and
battle for exports-there's a lot of extra capacity coming
more on a global scale. The result is relentless global
on line in the developing countries-and a protectionist
competition on price and quality, a steady, even startling,
scramble. Governments won't help. Military spending is
worldwide increase in manufacturing productivity, and
dropping; Star Wars will turn into Trade Wars. It's hard to
Asolid increases in real world output.
foresee a happy resolution even longer-term.
The second argument is a demographic one. The pop-
These are all serious and respected thinkers. Even Ba-
tilation profile of the United States has been wildly mis-
tra, whose reading of history is sometimes comically sim-
shapen over the past twenty-years. Tens of millions of
plistic, has made substantial contributions to the theory
young adults born during the Baby Boom years of 1946-
of international trade. But there is another view. A small
1964, unskilled, semischooled, and very unsettled,
but growing group of economists makes a strong case that
streamed into the job queues, playing havoc with the un-
the world and the United States, instead of teetering on
employment rate, personal savings, and the quality of
the edge of disaster, are really on the threshold of an al-
American work output. The populations of Japan and
most unprecedented long-run economic boom.
Germany, in contrast, have been much more heavily
weighted toward mature adults in their forties and early
The Case for Optimism
fifties. Starting just about now the center of gravity of the
American population is shifting radically once again. For
HE INTELLECTUAL ICON OF THE NEW OPTI-
T
most of the next two decades the age mix in America will
mists is Joseph Schumpeter, an Austrian
be very much like those in present-day Japan and Ger-
economist who did much of his work in the
many. The labor force will grow very slowly, if at all; the
United States. Schumpeter, who died in 1950,
demographic pressures making for unemployment will
was one of the first to develop the theory of business cy-
decline; output, income, and savings per worker should
cles. He believed that economies progress in fitful starts
go up steadily.
and stops, interspersing long periods of economic dislo-
Finally, the optimists foresee a steady decline in inter-
cation with stretches of sustained growth and develop-
est rates. Big-country governments, as a group-includ-
ment. The driving forces behind Schumpeter's cycles of
ing the United States-have halved their budget defi-
boom and bust are the pace of industrial innovation and
cits, measured as a percent of national income, over the
the diffusion of new technology. In Schumpeter's terms,
past few years; some are already buying back their bonds.
the optimists see the long run of economic turmoil that
Over time reduced borrowing should mean lower rates.
began in the early 1970s as a period of dislocation that is
Meanwhile global competition is already keeping a tight
the prelude to a new industrial golden age.
7
lid on inflationary wage and price increases. About half
Although there is some overlap between the new opti-
the long-term interest rate is a hedge against higher fu-
mists and the supply-side publicists-the people, that is,
ture inflation. As investors slowly come to believe that in-
who predicted we could have tax cuts without budget
flation isn't about to run out of control, the size of that
deficits-their case is not just blind Panglossism. It rests
hedge will drop. What's more, for a variety of complicat-
on sophisticated arguments, derived from economic and
ed reasons, the demand for housing is expected to drop
demographic developments around the world and in the
sharply. Real estate has absorbed an absurdly high pro-
United States. The gap between the optimists' view and
portion of American wealth over the past twenty years.
52
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OCTOBER 1989
THE ATLANTIC MONTHLY
Over the next ten much of
that capital will become
Big Business Goes
available for productive
Global
business investment, help-
EE
IACOCCA'S
ing to keep interest rates
L
television ads
low.
blared, "Here's
It is important to be
to You, Amer-
clear about what the opti-
ica," as jet planes streaked
mists are not saying. No
red, white, and blue ex-
one is claiming that reces-
hausts across the sky.
sions are a thing of the
There is no subtlety in the
past. Indeed, some of the
appeal: buying from
optimists, like many other
Chrysler is your patriotic
economists, believe that
duty. But the pitch is more
after seven years of unin-
than normally disingen-
terrupted growth there is
uous. For behind the
considerable likelihood of
smoke and clamor of the
an American recession late
trade wars, Chrysler and
this year or sometime in
the rest of the world's auto-
1990. But recessions in the
motive majors are frantical-
1990s should be short-
lived and shallow-more
ly forming engineering,
like the twenty years after
production, and marketing
the Korean War, when the
alliances, literally carving
OR THE FORESEEABLE
up the world, to buttress
American and world
FUTURE, POWERFUL INDUSTRIAL,
their positions in the strug-
economies grew smoothly
gle for global car-sales su-
and steadily, with occa-
ECONOMIC, AND DEMOGRAPHIC
premacy. Who the eventu-
sional pauses, to be sure,
FORCES WILL BE CONVERGING IN A WAY
al winners will be is far
but without the jagged
bounces, the stomach-
THAT WILL OFFER A WELCOME
from certain, but what is
clear is that only a small
churning spurts and
RESPITE FROM THE TRAUMAS OF THE
plunges, that we saw from
number of global compa-
PAST TWO DECADES.
nies will survive, and it is
1973 to 1982.
Nor is the boom abso-
increasingly meaningless
to speak of them as
lutely guaranteed. No one should underestimate the
"American" or "Japanese" or "European" companies.
ability of governments to derail a drive for efficiency and
(Even in Iacocca's ad the planes are French.)
productivity in the name of local special interests. And
The global restructuring of the automobile companies
while the United States will prosper mightily during a
is being driven by the hurricane-force wind from East
long-run cycle of global growth, there is no assurance that
Asia that hit the industry in the 1970s, capitalism's "pe-
it will remain the world's economic kingpin, the imperi-
rennial gale of creative destruction" extolled by Schum-
ous proclaimer and disposer of the postwar years. In-
peter. In a world where no market is safe, only the big-
deed, that is not at all likely to be the case.
gest and strongest companies can thrive. The alliances of
Finally, the optimists tend to ignore the darker side of
the automotive majors look like the intricate crisscrossing
the boom. It will be some time, perhaps a decade or
battle lines in the Oriental game of Go. Take Chrysler it-
more, before the boom's blotched underbelly draws
self: For all of Iacocca's red, white, and blue bunkum,
much public attention. Some of the issues of public poli-
auto-industry analysts say that Chrysler has the lowest
cy will be momentous: What, for example, is the relation
percentage of American-made parts in its cars of any of
between a government, no matter how powerful, and a
the Big Three. It also owns 24 percent of Mitsubishi Mo-
company that is truly global in its operations, its manage-
tors and, through Mitsubishi, a share of the South Korean
ment, and its ownership? But there will be few hardy
upstart Hyundai. Mitsubishi has long made cars under
contrarians to point out the problems of the boom. For
Chrysler's label, and the two companies run a fifty-fifty
the foreseeable future, if the optimists are right-and
joint venture in Normal, Illinois, which will be producing
their case is a strong one-powerful industrial, econom-
240,000 vehicles under both nameplates by the end of
ic, and demographic forces will be converging in a way
next year.
that will offer a welcome respite from the traumas of the
Ford, with one third of its sales outside the United
past two decades.
States, owns 25 percent of Mazda. Mazda makes cars in
OCTOBER 1989
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53
THE ATLANTIC MONTHLY
America for Ford; Ford will reciprocate by making com-
Whether the Chryslers, or even the Hondas, can sur-
pact trucks for Mazda; and the two companies trade
vive is far from clear. The weaker Japanese companies,
parts. Each owns a piece of Korea's Kia Motors, which
like Daihatsu, are already dropping by the wayside. But
produces the Ford Festiva for export to the United
no one can deny that cars, particularly American cars, are
States. Ford and Nissan, Japan's No. 2, swap vehicles in
much better than they used to be. The American indus-
Australia and are planning a joint mini-van program in
try still isn't up to the level of the best Japanese compa-
America. Ford and Volkswagen have merged into a single
nies, but standards are tighter, the work force is leaner,
company in Latin America, which exports trucks to the
and the cars are more competitive. They have to be, be-
United States.
cause the Big Three can no longer be rescued by import
General Motors holds a 41.6 percent stake in Isuzu,
controls. In a year or so global Japanese companies will
which is starting a joint venture in America with Subaru,
be turning out two million high-quality American cars a
which is partly owned by Nissan. GM also owns half of
year, with American workers, in American plants.
Daewoo Motors, Hyundai's major competitor in Korea.
Daewoo makes Nissan cars for Japan and Pontiacs for
America; soon it will be selling cars that were primarily
The Third Industrial Revolution
designed by GM-Europe to Isuzu in Japan. GM has also
HE AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY IS NOT THE ONLY
teamed with Japan's No. 1, Toyota, to produce cars under
both companies' labels in America and Australia. Their
T
one to have felt the competitive lash. For
sheer compressed, earth-scorching savagery, it
joint American operation will be turning out 100,000
is difficult to match the violent recession that
small cars and trucks by 1991.
struck American manufacturing industries in 1981-1982.
Europe is laced with partnerships, joint ventures, and
Whole sectors of the economy were brought to the brink
production agreements. Honda America sells more cars
of destruction. Just a few statistics convey the speed and
in America than its parent does in Japan-its Accords
extent of the humiliation. In 1975 America's machine-
were the seventh best-selling American-made car
tool manufacturers dominated the world markets; by
in 1988-and some analysts see the power balance
1985 machine-tool exports were virtually nonexistent
within the company shifting to the American subsidi-
and German and Japanese machine tools were standard
ary. Honda plans to be exporting 70,000 cars from the
throughout American industry. In just a few years Ameri-
United States by 1991.
cà's share of world semiconductor fabrication dropped
OCTOBER 1989
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55
THE ATLANTIC MONTHLY
from 60 percent to 40 percent. For all practical purposes,
and-development base; and it enjoys the luxury of global
American companies simply exited the consumer elec-
sourcing of selected products from highly specialized fac-
tronics industry. No home radios, phonographs, black-
tories. Sony has been steadily moving the design and pro-
and-white televisions, or cassette players are made in the
duction of its televisions to Europe and America, but a
United States any longer; American companies' share of
common worldwide chassis gives a cost advantage no lo-
the color-television market is minuscule No American
cal competitor can match. Engineers at General Elec-
company makes VCRs or CD players. Industry after in-
tric-FANUC design factory controllers around the clock
dustry told the same story. "We were oxyacetylened,"
at the end of each day the Americans download their
one Rust Bowl executive says-it was like being taken
work to a satellite link to Japan and then pick up the next
out with a blowtorch.
morning where the Japanese left off. A global competi-
In retrospect, the storm warnings had been flying for
tive standard squeezes out the small inefficiencies that
years. American companies, feeling secure in their big
build up in protected national markets-traditional labor
home market, were complacent and lazy, running smug
practices, fustian management. "If you let your costs or
big-union and big-management cartels, turning out shod-
your quality get out of line almost anywhere, someone is
dy products that cost too much, And in industry after in-
moving in to take advantage," says Steven Nagourney,
dustry there are the same frantic struggle for global po-
the chief international strategist for Shearson Lehman
sition and scrambling for strategic alliances that are
Hutton.),
reshaping the automobile industry. Texas Instruments
Support for the optimists' claims comes from the strik-
and the Japanese computer-maker Hitachi are partners in
ing rise in global manufacturing productivity during the
developing the next-generation computer memory chip,
1980s. Manufacturing productivity in the United States
the 16-megabit DRAM. The Japanese earthmoving-
has grown at an annual rate of 4.3 percent since 1982, one
equipment-maker Komatsu is partnering with Dresser
of the fastest sustained run-ups on record. (American
Industries in manufacturing and marketing throughout
steel is now actually cheaper than Japanese steel.) After
North and South America.
slipping badly three years ago, Japan has surged back to
Whirlpool has joined with the Dutch electronics gi-
the head of the productivity-league tables, with a 5.9 per-
ant Philips to operate six major appliance factories
cent growth rate over the same period. And right behind
in the Common Market. Philips has also joined with a
Japan is Great Britain, for twenty years the living symbol
group of American executives and the Taiwanese govern-
of "Eurosclerosis." Europe's second fastest rate of output
ment to create an advanced semiconductor-fabrication
growth was in Italy-yes, Italy-just a hair faster than
plant in Taiwan, where Texas Instruments is also build-
the rate in the United States. France, Germany, and Swe-
ing an advanced chip factory with a Taiwanese partner.
den are clustered behind the United States, with quite
Ball, of Muncie, Indiana, has entered into a series of
respectable rates of improvement.
joint ventures around the world to market and manu-
Edward Yardeni, of Prudential-Bache, suspects that
facture its lightweight containers for soft drinks. The list
globalization is already a factor in the eerie lack of an
goes on and on-USX and Kobe Steel, Armco and
American recession, the missing guest at the economic
Kawasaki Steel. The misnamed National Steel Com-
table whose absence has been so glaring for the past sev-
pany is a fifty-fifty joint venture between an American
eral years. He thinks there may be a new pattern of "roll-
and a Japanese company. Most of the pharmaceutical ma-
ing recessions" that affect whole industries around the
jors have entered into extensive cross-licensing agree-
world a cluster at a time, rather than the individual na-
ments covering one another's products. Japan's robotics
tional recessions that economists are accustomed to look-
leader, FANUC, has partnerships with General Motors in
ing for. He points to the recession in the computer indus-
robots, with General Electric in computerized factory
try in 1983-1984: computer and computer-component
control devices, and with the German firm Siemens in
manufacturers were severely depressed globally, but not
electronics.
enough to take the steam out of the rest of the economy.
The drive for global market share is forcing what Stan-
Even accepting the optimists' claim that the world is
ley Feldman, of Data Resources, calls the Third Indus-
on the brink of an industrial boom, the question remains
trial Revolution. A wholesale reordering of production
whether the United States will get much benefit from it.
technology is under way-computerized factory sched-
National economic behavior for the past two decades has
ules and inventory controls to cut costs, intelligent pro-
not been impressive. The problem seems almost to be a
duction machinery that can shift processes in the middle
moral and intellectual flabbiness-an inability to make
of an assembly line. The object is to produce local prod-
spending choices, a low savings rate, a culture of self-
ucts adapted to local markets, but reap world economies
centered consumerism and restless mobility, a lack of
of scale in research and development, raw-materials
commitment and loyalty on the part of careless workers
sourcing, and production balancing.
and job-hopping executives. The optimists' answer is
IBM makes almost all its products in its local markets,
that the past twenty years have been a most unusual peri-
but no other company can match its worldwide research-
od in American economic history.
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OCTOBER 1989
THE ATLANTIC MONTHLY
The Comforts of
ple. The soul does not
thrill at the sight of forty-
Demography
year-old workaholics, rais-
HE WORLD SINGS
ing kids and paying their
T
the praises of
mortgages, but as the
the
"Great
economy's centerweight,
American Job
they have it all over the
Machine." Over the past
long-haired pot-smokers of
twenty years the United
a couple of decades ago.
States has created jobs for
The critical variable will
38 million new workers, 17
be the American savings
million of them in the past
rate, which, in fact, has
seven years alone, when
shown signs of rising again
employment was virtually
after hitting an all-time low
flat in almost every other
in 1987. Personal savings
industrial country. But in
are the ultimate source of
the same breath econo-
all productive investment.
mists lament the slowdown
It is the high Japanese sav-
in American productivity;
ings rate-as much as 18
manufacturing excepted,
percent of all personal in-
the output of American
come-that has financed
workers has been stagnant
Japan's global industrial
since the early 1970s.
conquest. It is the high
The strong performance
UPPORT FOR THE OPTIMISTS'
savings rates in other coun-
in job creation and the
tries, as well, that have al-
CLAIMS COMES FROM THE STRIKING RISE
weak performance in pro-
lowed America to dance
ductivity are, of course,
IN GLOBAL MANUFACTURING
through the economic rain-
two sides of the same coin.
PRODUCTIVITY DURING THE 1980S.
drops in recent years; for-
New workers swelled the
eign capital picks up the
American labor force by
IN THE UNITED STATES IT HAS
tab for the American bud-
about 50 percent in the
GROWN AT AN ANNUAL RATE OF 4.3
get and trade deficits. The
past twenty years, shifting
optimists argue, plausibly
PERCENT SINCE 1982.
the average age and expe-
enough, that an older,
rience of workers sharply
more productive work
downward. Not surprisingly, with lots of cheap new
force, with higher real incomes, will save more. Yardeni
workers mobbing the doorway, businessmen increased
expects a 10 percent savings rate in the mid-1990s,
hiring instead of investing in labor-saving machinery-a
roughly double the current one.
fancy industrial robot costs about as much as a year's
Unfortunately, for all its importance, the personal
wages for a hundred entry-level workers. Real wages and
savings rate is one of the least precise of statistics. The
productivity were stagnant, and the business success sto-
number is merely a residual of two huge data series, for
ries were companies, like McDonald's, that learned how
personal income and personal spending, each of which
to pan for gold in that low-wage pool.
involves thousands of samples, estimates, and interpola-
The transformation of the work force in the 1990s will
tions. The difference between the two is "savings." Tiny
be just as dramatic. People born at the Baby Boom's peak
estimating errors or changes in method in calculating the
are in their thirties. About five years from now two thirds
two big series can cause proportionally enormous swings
of the Baby Boomers will be over thirty-four. Walking
in the residual. "There are no data relating savings to age
shoes are already pushing high-priced running shoes off
group," John Gorman, a key analyst at the Department
the sports-store counters. Another sign of the times is
of Commerce, says flatly. "None."
that McDonald's is beginning to invest in labor-saving
Yardeni points to sample data indicating that people
machinerv-two-sided grills, for instance. As the size of
under thirty, particularly those with lower incomes, are
the work force begins to stabilize, and the average age
"dissavers"-they spend more than they earn. People
and experience of workers move rapidly upward, busi-
over forty, particularly those with higher incomes, do
ness will start substituting equipment for low-wage
most of the saving. Other economists challenge those
workers. Capital spending, in fact, has been strong
findings, citing studies that show only inconsistent rela-
throughout the 1980s expansion, and with time produc-
tionships. All the studies have major methodological
tivity should soar. "Couch potatoes" are not exciting peo-
problems. For anyone who wants to believe that the opti-
OCTOBER 1989
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57
THE ATLANTIC MONTHLY
mists are right, though, this is the vital sign that bears the
lic services, and the same range of specialty consumer
closest watching.
items, enjoyed by other rich nations. Emmott suggests
Interestingly, the demographic tides in Japan suggest
that spending on overseas travel and other services could
that the long surge of Japanese industry is reaching a cy-
equal or exceed the return on overseas investment in-
clical peak. An International Monetary Fund study says
come. He assumes that Japan will continue to be a formi-
that the impact of demographic change in Japan will be
dable competitor, of course, but eventually as the leader
the "most extreme" of any in the industrialized coun-
of a bloc of yen-oriented industrial powers-much as
tries, as the number of aged dependents doubles starting
West Germany is the leader of a de facto European
about 1995.
bloc-rather than as a world-conquering golden horde.
Bill Emmott, the business-affairs editor of The Econo-
mist, foresees a steadily Westernizing Japanese economy
Of Governments,
in an important new book, The Sun Also Sets. The very
Real Estate, and Interest Rates
high Japanese savings rate will drop as the workers now
in their fifties reach retirement age and begin to draw on
HE LAST THREAD IN THE BRIGHT ECONOMIC
their savings, at roughly the same time that American
T
tapestry the optimists are weaving is the fore-
savings, one hopes, will begin a long rise. Consumer
cast of steadily falling interest rates. Falling
spending is already rising strongly as young Japanese
rates would ease debt pressures and spur in-
adults, with no memories of the postwar deprivations,
dustrial investment. The array of forces lining up to push
begin to insist on the same amenities in housing and pub-
rates down is, in fact, an impressive one. In the first
FOR THE SAKE OF RETRIEVAL
As Whistler heard colors like a stretch of music-
stairsteps, doorknob, serving bowl, teacup, Bordeaux.
long harmonies, violet to amber, double hummings of
Mechanical fingers, controlled by the strokes
silver, opal-so, in reverse, these three in their capsule,
of a joy stick, brush over debris, lifting, replacing.
In jittery strobe lights, camera lights, all colors
free-falling two hours through the black Atlantic, ears
ground down to a quiet palette,
popped, then filled with the music of Bach or Haydn,
angles return, corners and spirals
might fashion a landscape. Low notes bring
pull back to the human eye-as if from some
a prairie perhaps, the sharps a smatter of flowers,
iced and black-washed atmosphere, boiler coal,
as the pip-notes of sonar spring back to the screen
a footboard and platter, each common shape
in little blossoms. They have come for the lost Titanic
brightened, briefly held for the sake of retrieval.
The current spins silt like a sudden storm.
and find instead, in the splayed beam of a headlamp,
With the intricacy of a body the capsule adjusts,
silt fields, pale and singular, like the snow fields
temperature, pressure. Someone coughs, then the three
of Newfoundland. On its one runner blade the
capsule slides,
sit waiting, as in Whistler's "Sad Sea"
slips out through drift hummocks, through
three are waiting. All around them are dollops
stones the ice-age glaciers dropped, its trail
of winter wind, everywhere beach and sea. No horizon
the foot-thin trail of a dancer, who
at all in this painting, just a grey/brown thrum
plants, glides, at his head the flurry
beach to sea. How steady his breath must have been
on the canvas, his hand on the brushstrokes
of a ship's chandelier, at his back a cinch-hook of icebergs
of lap robes, of bonnets and beach chairs, the pull
cast down through the winds of Newfoundland.
of a red umbrella: each simple shape
The music these three absorb
loved and awash in the landscape.
stops with the wreckage, with words
lipped up through a microphone:
-Linda Bierds
flange, windlass, capstan, hull plating, then oddly, syllables
at a slant, as light might slant through window slats,
Photocopy-Preservation
58
OCTOBER 1989
THE ATLANTIC MONTHLY
place, interest rates are partly an anticipation of inflation.
owners who are still hoping to make a killing on their
There is a good argument that global competitive pres-
houses, but would be a major shot of adrenaline for
sures clamp a firm ceiling on prices, Coopers & Lybrand,
American industry.
the international accounting and consulting firm, says
Yardeni has pulled together all the roses blooming in
flatly that only the "fierce worldwide competition in
the economic garden into a bouquet he calls New Wave
price and quality" can explain the tame behavior of prices
Economics. "After the stock market crashed in 1987," he
during the prolonged American economic expansion.
says, "and everyone was filled with gloom, I decided to
Alan Greenspan, the chairman of the Federal Reserve,
look at what might go right. Frankly, I was amazed at how
says that "integration of the world's production facili-
positive all the fundamentals were. The work force is
ties" heads off inflation by unstopping production
getting older, more skilled, and more productive. Savings
bottlenecks.
should rise just as government borrowing and the de-
At the same time, government borrowing is declining
mand for housing slow down. Global competition and a
in virtually all the industrial countries, which should
resurgence in manufacturing are a lid on inflation. We're
press rates down further. Roland Leuschel, the chief in-
looking at low interest rates, a long-term shift from hous-
vestment strategist at Banque Bruxelles Lambert, has
ing to business investment, and a big increase in produc-
even raised an unfashionable alarm over "a looming
tivity and real incomes. It's a cycle that could go on for a
shortage of government bonds." On average, govern-
long time."
ment borrowing as a percent of national income fell by
about half from 1984 to 1988-in the United States from
But Will It Happen Here?
five percent of GNP in 1985 to about three percent now
(or two percent if state and local surpluses are counted, as
HERE IS STILL THE PERVASIVE WORRY THAT
they should be). Britain is already in surplus, retiring per-
haps $23 billion of debt this year. Australia and Denmark
T
American industry has been weakened to the
point where we are slipping to second-class
are running surpluses, as will Japan and Germany within
economic status. It is a serious issue, and there
a year or two. America's cash deficit will disappear some-
is genuine cause for concern in specific industries.
time after 1995, as collections for the next century's So-
But the question of America's future success in a global
cial Security overhang begin to accumulate. Scaroer
economy is too often confused with the issue of our re-
bonds mean higher bond prices-another way of saying
gaining our postwar position as economic dictator to the
lower interest rates.
world. That role is gone forever, and no one should wish
Even more important is the expected drop in hous-
it otherwise. The income of urban adults in the major in-
ing demand in the United States. Housing was the char-
dustrialized countries is now practically uniform. That
acteristic American investment of the 1970s and 1980s.
was the explicit objective of American statesmanship at
Not only did the sheer number of young adults increase
the end of the war, the crowning adornment of our post-
sharply, but they moved out of their parents' house-
war foreign policy, a grand aim expressly adopted, point-
holds sooner, got married later, and formed more sep-
edly pursued, and unambiguously attained. To seize
arate households. To further boost housing demand,
upon that success as an index of relative "decline" is to
the next-fastest-growing age group consisted of those
miss the point.
over sixty-five, who for the first time ever decided to
The shock of the economic turmoil of the 1970s, the
keep their own houses instead of living with married
recessionary gales of the early 1980s, and the sudden on-
children.
slaught of the Japanese have tended to exaggerate the
Throw in a tax code that depressed the real cost of
perception of decline. There are real problems in many
mortgages, an inflationary psychology that encouraged
American industries, but they need to be kept in
people to borrow against real property, and truly spectac-
perspective.
ular capital gains from leveraged real-estate invest-
Some statistics:
ments-and housing starts exploded. All those factors
According to a detailed study recently completed by
will run in reverse in the 1990s. The number of young
the British Treasury, real output per American worker,
adults will drop, and the number of people over the age
abstracted from currency fluctuations, is still the highest
of sixty-five will stabilize. More-traditional family rela-
in the world, and perhaps half again higher than output
tionships among aging Baby Boomers will reduce the
per worker in Japan.
number of separate households. A Brookings Institution
Over the past twenty years American companies have
study forecasts about a 30 percent drop in demographi-
increased their share of world exports. But American
cally driven housing demand through the decade of the
companies have spread their operations around the
1990s. Already the inventory of single-family homes for
globe, and their sales overseas do not show up in Ameri-
sale has risen about a third since 1982. A shift of savings
can trade data.
away from real estate to bank deposits or stocks and
The U.S. share of world output actually increased
bonds would mean some rough adjustments for home-
slightly during the 1980s. Asian and Japanese shares of
Photocopy-Preservation
62
OCTOBER 1989
world output also in-
And the American high-
creased, but at the ex-
technology position is still
pense of Europe, not of
very strong. In the boom-
America.
ing market for mini-super-
The United States nev-
computers-miniaturized
"de-industrialized."
powerhouses that can
er Manufacturing's share of
chew through scientific
GNP, at about 23 percent,
problems that would tie up
has been virtually un-
even the largest business
changed since 1947.
computers for years-the
The world-thumping
only manufacturers are still
success of Japanesc com-
American. In the comput-
panies in high-visibility
erized-work-station mar-
consumer-product manu-
ket-very high-powered
facture obscures how stag-
personal computers-
geringly unproductive the
Sony is still chasing the
greater part of the Japa-
medium-sized California
nese work force is. The ra-
firm Sun Microsystems in
tio of wholesale 111 retail
Japan. America has no peer
sales, for instance. il mea-
in medical technology, fi-
sure of how long il takes
ber optics, genetic engi-
goods to get to consumers,
neering, or computer-aid-
is more than double that in
ed design.
America. Food is extreme-
Line
HE MOST DANGEROUS OBSTACLE
Clearly, there are prob-
ly expensive, partly be-
lems with American com-
TO A NEW INDUSTRIAL GOLDEN AGE,
cause of agricultural pro-
petitiveness, as was docu-
tectionism and partly
AND THE ONLY ONE REALLY
mented most recently by
because there are no
MIT's Commission on In-
WITHIN OUR POLITICAL. CONTROL, IS THE
world-class Japanese food-
dustrial Productivity last
processing and distribution
ECONOMIC NATIONALISM BREWING
spring. Michael P. Schul-
companies. According to
IN THE HALLS OF CONGRESS AND THE
hof, the vice-chairman of
Nomura Securities, Kraft
Sony Corporation of Amer-
could import cheese to Ja-
COUNCILS OF EUROPE.
ica, points to an American
pan and sell it for half the
penchant for quick fixes.
price charged by local businesses, which, of course, are
"American businessmen seem to think they can catch up
clamoring for import protection.
in high-definition television with a year or so of federal
The Japanese pharmaceutical market is the second
funding," he says. "That's not true. We've been building
largest in the workl. but there are no world-class Japanese
those technologies for twenty years. Besides that, I won't
pharmaceutical companies. The largest Japanese chemi-
believe American companies are serious until they stop
cal company, Asahi Chemical, would barely make the list
trying to sell left-hand-drive cars in Japan."
of the top ten in America. The Japanese construction
Schulhof's comment is on the mark. When American
industry :s notoriously fragmented, inefficient, and mob-
import restraints and the falling dollar raised the price of
It is also politically powerful, and has man-
Japanese cars, American automobile executives, for all
aged, by end large. 11) exclude much more capable Amer-
their Iacoccan swagger, took the easy way out: instead of
ican companies from bidding on major public projects.
winning back their markets, they raised prices, trumpet-
The importance of agriculture, mining, and logging in
ed a turnaround, and paid themselves multimillion-dollar
America is sometimes viewed as a measure of backward-
bonuses with the windfall profits. Christopher Willard, at
ness. But as practiced in the United States, these are be-
Dataquest, a high-technology market-research firm,
coming high-tech industries. The price of coal has
says, "There's nothing wrong with American technology.
dropped by about a fifth in recent years, primarily be-
But there is an attitude difference. American companies
cause
improvements in mining machinery. The con-
won't manufacture complicated low-volume chips if they
tinuin
over bovine somatotropin, the hormone that
can't make a profit on them. Japanese companies will
boosts clurs' milk production, and over the use of recom-
take the job if they think they'll learn something that will
binant sene products as pesticides or crop enhancers
help them later on, regardless of the short-term profits."
demonstrate farm. the impact of technology on the modern
The American lead in high technology, indeed, is part
of the problem. American R&D expenditures, as a per-
OCTOBER 1989
Photocopy-Preservation
63
THE ATLANTIC MONTHLY
centage of GNP, are actually slightly higher than Japan's,
ognize that protectionism is against their interests.
but about a third of them are defense-related. America
pillar, for example, has opposed the recent steel and ba.
has more scientists and engineers than Japan, Great Brit-
bearing import restraints, because they raise the cost of
ain, and West Germany combined, but much of their
its production. "Managed" semiconductor prices made
work is devoted to building weapons. As a consequence,
American computer companies less competitive, and
America has unmatched high-end machining, for exam-
managed trade in cars drew the Japanese into the high-
ple-missile gyroscopes and submarine propeller blades
profit luxury segment of the American market.
must be finished to exquisitely precise standards—
It may, in fact, be too late for the protectionists to do
but has been thoroughly outclassed in mid-technology
great damage; the interventions required would need to
applications.
be truly malign and persistent. Political consensus tends
America is too big, too rich, and too resourceful to be
to coalesce slowly, and the trade spats already have an
shut out of the global boom. Even the pessimist Gary
anachronistic air. The rapid movement of global compa-
Shilling sees America as regaining much of its competi-
nies into local markets, the intricate networks of partner-
tiveness longer-term: "Japan may actually have a tougher
ships, joint ventures, and cross-ownership, make a mock-
time than the United States," he says, "because of demo-
ery of the instinct to throw up ramparts. In 1986
graphics and excess capacity."
American overseas sales were three times as large as
As global companies continue the relentless push into
American merchandise exports; half the trade deficit
local markets, America will become a haven for high-pro-
represents imports from American companies. The
ductivity manufacturing. American companies will be
Japanese tire company Bridgestone is investing $1
clear winners in some global industries, and American
billion to upgrade the North American operations of Fire-
companies that have taken to heart the lessons of the past
stone, its new American acquisition. Goodyear, the
ten years will be winners in every industry. To be sure, a
world's leading tire manufacturer, is increasing its invest-
large number won't make the grade and will be swal-
ment to keep pace. The country and the economy are the
lowed up by stronger Asian or European competitors, but
winners.
it will be increasingly difficult for consumers or workers
The more challenging problems, in fact-ones that
to tell the difference.
the optimists rarely allude to-will be the problems of
success. In the late 1950s John Kenneth Galbraith com-
Can the Boom Be Stopped?
plained about the slothful market-fixing practices of big
American companies. He was right, and the complacent
VEN THE MOST CONVINCED OPTIMISTS CONCEDE
E
giants got their comeuppance in the surprise Japanese
that there is a long parade of horribles capable
onslaught of the 1970s. But a decade or so from now,
of pushing the world off a fast-growth track.
when a handful of global automobile companies, global
Some of them are unpredictable and probably
computer companies, global chemical and food compa-
uncontrollable. Can the world ecosystem sustain a pro-
nies, global steel and consumer-electronics companies,
longed cycle of global industrial growth? Images arise of a
emerge from the fierce competitive struggle in clear lead-
Bhopal or a Chernobyl on a tremendous scale, setting
ership positions, who will keep them in line? Where will
back economic development for a generation. Might
Schumpeter's cleansing gale come from? From competi-
there be a new Ice Age in the Cold War? world nervous-
tors on Mars? In an outcome that would be much to
ly fingering triggers in the wake of, say, a revolution in
Schumpeter's chagrin, the global competitive struggle
Eastern Europe might snuff out the free flow of goods
we are now witnessing may end in the Marxist nightmare
and wealth-creating technology essential to a sustained
of global monopolies.
cycle of world economic development.
Robert Reich, of Harvard University, worries that
But the most dangerous obstacle to a new industrial
global competition, while opening unprecedented op-
golden age. and the only one really within our political
portunities for educated manipulators of symbols. like
control, is the economic nationalism brewing in the halls
lawyers, investment bankers, design engineers, and mar-
of Congress and the councils of Europe. Europe is the
keting experts, will impose iron limits on the wages of or-
prime example: it has attempted to protect its markets
dinary workers. At the very least, there is cause for grave
and its national producers for forty years. Engorged with
concern about a laggard national educational system.
government subsidies, the British automobile industry
turning out a class of permanent social dependents who
simply rolled over and died. None of the global car com-
are squeezed out of any meaningful economic role by the
panies that will survive a decade from now is likely to be
better schooling and work ethos prevailing abroad.
European. Semiconductor and computer "initiatives"
Success, in short, will bring momentous problems
proliferated throughout Europe in the 1970s; the result
of its own. But if the optimists are right, and the world
was a virtually complete takeover by the Americans. as
really is on the brink of a Schumpeterian golden age.
national resources were dissipated on losers.
there should be energy and resources-enough to solve
There are some signs that American businessmen rec-
them.
Photocopy-Preservation
64
OCTOBER 1989
Harry S. Truman, 1950
July I9 [193]
used in residential and other
details of these programs, and advise my
governing both the purchase and sale of in-
vill be required in increasing
office of any problem which remains
sured and guaranteed mortgages. I under-
national defense purposes. It
unresolved.
stand that the current regulations governing
hat these requirements be met
Very sincerely yours,
the purchase of mortgages have substantially
hout delay. These increased
HARRY S. TRUMAN
reduced the volume of purchases. This situ-
aggravate inflationary tend-
ation should be carefully watched to make
evident in some of these ma-
[Honorable Carl R. Gray, Jr., The Administrator
sure that further mortgage purchases are
of Veterans' Affairs]
positive actions are taken to
held to the irreducible minimum.
in residential construction.
Dear Mr. Chairman:
I also understand that sales of mortgages
I request that the Ad-
As you know, residential construction in
owned by the Federal National Mortgage
Veterans' Affairs take the fol-
the last several months has risen to very high
Association have been stepped up consid-
strative
actions:
levels. Continuance of high levels would
erably in recent months. I am sure you will
a cash down payment of at
be entirely desirable, were it not for recent
agree, however, that in the present situation
for all loans guaranteed,
international developments. It is already
sales efforts should be further intensified in
by the Veterans' Adminis-
clear that, as a result of events of the last
order to absorb, as much as possible, surplus
permissible under existing
month, many materials used in residential
funds seeking investment in residential
and other construction will be required in
mortgages.
such required cash down pay-
increasing amounts for national defense pur-
Inasmuch as the Federal National Mort-
equal to any increase in
poses. It is imperative that these require-
gage Association will soon be transferred
occasioned by recognized in-
ments be met fully and without delay. These
to the Housing and Home Finance Agency,
ruction costs over those exist-
increased demands will aggravate infla-
I would appreciate your working closely with
tionary tendencies already evident in some
the Administrator of the Housing and Home
direct loan authorizations in
of these materials unless positive actions are
Finance Agency in the planning and execu-
quarter of fiscal year 1951 to
taken to reduce pressures in residential
tion of these actions.
total amount authorized for
construction.
Very sincerely yours,
Enclosed for your information are letters
HARRY S. TRUMAN
further actions as in your
I have addressed to the Administrator of the
become necessary and appro-
Housing and Home Finance Agency and the
[Honorable Harley Hise, Chairman, Board of Di-
restriction of size of projects
Administrator of Veterans' Affairs, request-
rectors, Reconstruction Finance Corporation]
curtail the use in residential
ing them to take certain steps to restrain the
NOTE: Copies of these letters were sent to the Hon-
orable Charles F. Brannan, Secretary of Agricul-
materials essential to national
expansion of housing credit.
ture, the Honorable Thomas B. McCabe, Chairman
As a corollary to the actions which I have
of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
your information is a copy
asked these agencies to take, I request you
System, and the Honorable Maple T. Harl, Chair-
today's date to the Adminis-
to reexamine immediately the regulations of
man of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.
The President signed the Housing Act of 1950
Housing and Home Finance
the Federal National Mortgage Association
on April 20, 1950 (64 Stat. 48).
my wish that both agencies
ubstantial and parallel cur-
credit, but in such a way
193 Special Message to the Congress Reporting on the
preference presently ac-
Situation in Korea. July 19, I950
is preserved. I would
erefore, if you will consult
To the Congress of the United States:
to meet this situation. I am also laying be-
istrator of the Housing and
I am reporting to the Congress on the
fore the Congress my views concerning the
Agency in working out the
situation which has been created in Korea,
significance of these events for this Nation
and on the actions which this Nation has
and the world, and certain recommenda-
taken, as a member of the United Nations,
tions for legislative action which I believe
527
[193] July I9
Public Papers of the Presidents
should be taken at this time.
The report of these international observers
At four o'clock in the morning, Sunday,
stated that the Army of the Republic of
June 25th, Korean time, armed forces from
Korea was organized entirely for defense.
factual
north of the thirty-eighth parallel invaded
The observers found the parallel guarded
the Republic of Korea.
on the south side by small bodies of troops
The Republic of Korea was established as
in scattered outposts, with roving patrols.
History
an independent nation in August, 1948, after
They found no concentration of troops and
a free election held under the auspices of the
no preparation to attack. The observers
United Nations. This election, which was
concluded that the absence of armor, air
originally intended to cover all of Korea,
support, heavy artillery, and military sup-
was held only in the part of the Korean pe-
plies precluded any offensive action by the
ninsula south of the thirty-eighth parallel,
forces of the Republic of Korea.
because the Soviet Government, which
On June 25th, within a few hours after
occupied the peninsula north of that parallel,
the invasion was launched from the north,
refused to allow the election to be held in the
the Commission reported to the United Na-
area under its control.
tions that the attack had come without
The United States, and a majority of the
warning and without provocation.
other members of the United Nations, have
The reports from the Commission make
recognized the Republic of Korea. The ad-
it unmistakably clear that the attack was
mission of Korea to the United Nations has
naked, deliberate, unprovoked aggression,
been blocked by the Soviet veto.
without a shadow of justification.
In December, 1948, the Soviet Govern-
This outright breach of the peace, in
ment stated that it had withdrawn its occu-
violation of the United Nations Charter,
pation troops from northern Korea, and
created a real and present danger to the
that a local regime had been established
security of every nation. This attack was,
there. The authorities in northern Korea
in addition, a demonstration of contempt
continued to refuse to permit United Na-
for the United Nations, since it was an
tions observers to pass the thirty-eighth
attempt to settle, by military aggression, a
parallel to supervise or observe a free elec-
question which the United Nations had
tion, or to verify the withdrawal of Soviet
been working to settle by peaceful means.
troops.
The attack on the Republic of Korea,
Nevertheless, the United Nations con-
therefore, was a clear challenge to the
tinued its efforts to obtain a freely-elected
basic principles of the United Nations
government for all of Korea, and at the time
Charter and to the specific actions taken
of the attack, a United Nations Commission,
by the United Nations in Korea. If this
made up of representatives of seven na-
challenge had not been met squarely, the ef-
tions-Australia, China, El Salvador,
fectiveness of the United Nations would
France, India, the Philippines and Tur-
have been all but ended, and the hope of
key-was in the Republic of Korea.
mankind that the United Nations would de-
Just one day before the attack of June
velop into an institution of world order
25th, field observers attached to the United
would have been shattered.
Nations Commission on Korea had com-
Prompt action was imperative. The
pleted a routine tour, lasting two weeks, of
Security Council of the United Nations met,
the military positions of the Republic of
at the request of the United States, in New
Korea south of the thirty-eighth parallel.
York at two o'clock in the afternoon, Sun-
528
Harry S. Truman, 1950
July I9 [193]
international observers
day, June 25th, eastern daylight time. Since
to the resolution of the Security Council of
Army of the Republic of
there is a 14-hour difference in time be-
the United Nations. Accordingly, in order
entirely for defense.
tween Korea and New York, this meant
to support the resolution, and on the unani-
found the parallel guarded
that the Council convened just 24 hours af-
mous advice of our civil and military au-
by small bodies of troops
ter the attack began.
thorities, I ordered United States air and
tposts, with roving patrols.
At this meeting, the Security Council
sea forces to give the Korean Government
concentration of troops and
passed a resolution which called for the im-
troops cover and support.
to attack. The observers
mediate cessation of hostilities and for the
On Tuesday, June 27th, when the United
the absence of armor, air
withdrawal of the invading troops to the
Nations Commission in Korea had reported
artillery, and military sup-
thirty-eighth parallel, and which requested
that the northern troops had neither ceased
any offensive action by the
the members of the United Nations to re-
hostilities nor withdrawn to the thirty-eighth
public
of
Korea.
frain from giving aid to the northern ag-
parallel, the United Nations Security Council
within a few hours after
gressors and to assist in the execution of this
met again and passed a second resolution
launched from the north,
resolution. The representative of the Soviet
recommending that members of the United
reported to the United Na-
Union to the Security Council stayed away
Nations furnish to the Republic of Korea
attack had come without
from the meetings, and the Soviet Govern-
such aid as might be necessary to repel the
ithout provocation.
ment has refused to support the Council's
attack and to restore international peace and
from the Commission make
resolution.
security in the area. The representative of
clear that the attack was
The attack launched on June 25th moved
the Soviet Union to the Security Council
unprovoked aggression,
ahead rapidly. The tactical surprise gained
stayed away from this meeting also, and the
of
justification.
by the aggressors, and their superiority in
Soviet Government has refused to support
breach of the peace, in
planes, tanks and artillery, forced the lightly-
the Council's resolution.
United Nations Charter,
armed defenders to retreat. The speed, the
The vigorous and unhesitating actions of
and present danger to the
scale, and the coordination of the attack left
the United Nations and the United States
nation. This attack was,
no doubt that it had been plotted long in
in the face of this aggression met with an
demonstration of contempt
advance.
immediate and overwhelming response
Nations, since it was an
When the attack came, our Ambassador
throughout the free world. The first blow
by military aggression, a
to Korea, John J. Muccio, began the imme-
of aggression had brought dismay and
the United Nations had
diate evacuation of American women and
anxiety to the hearts of men the world over.
settle by peaceful means.
children from the danger zone. To protect
The fateful events of the 1930's, when ag-
the Republic of Korea,
this evacuation, air cover and sea cover were
gression unopposed bred more aggression
a clear challenge to the
provided by the Commander in Chief of
and eventually war, were fresh in our
of the United Nations
United States Forces in the Far East, General
memory.
the specific actions taken
of the Army Douglas MacArthur. In re-
But the free nations had learned the lesson
Nations in Korea. If this
sponse to urgent appeals from the Govern-
of history. Their determined and united
been met squarely, the ef-
ment of Korea, General MacArthur was im-
actions uplifted the spirit of free men every-
the United Nations would
mediately authorized to send supplies of
where. As a result, where there had been
ended, and the hope of
ammunition to the Korean defenders. These
dismay there is hope; where there had been
United Nations would de-
supplies were sent by air transport, with
anxiety there is firm determination.
institution of world order
fighter protection. The United States
Fifty-two of the fifty-nine member nations
shattered.
Seventh Fleet was ordered north from the
have supported the United Nations action
was imperative. The
Philippines, so that it might be available in
to restore peace in Korea.
of the United Nations met,
the area in case of need.
A number of member nations have offered
the United States, in New
Throughout Monday, June 26th, the in-
military support or other types of assistance
clock in the afternoon, Sun-
vaders continued their attack with no heed
for the United Nations action to repel the
529
[193] July I9
Public Papers of the Presidents
aggressors in Korea. In a third resolution,
The Soviet Government, in its reply on
passed on July 7th, the Security Council re-
June 29th and in subsequent statements, has
quested the United States to designate a
taken the position that the attack launched
commander for all the forces of the members
by the north Korean forces was provoked
of the United Nations in the Korean opera-
by the Republic of Korea, and that the ac-
tion, and authorized these forces to fly the
tions of the United Nations Security Coun-
United Nations flag. In response to this
cil were illegal.
resolution, General MacArthur has been des-
These Soviet claims are flatly disproved by
ignated as commander of these forces. These
the facts.
are important steps forward in the develop-
The attitude of the Soviet Government
ment of a United Nations system of collec-
toward the aggression against the Repub-
tive security. Already, aircraft of two na-
lic of Korea, is in direct contradiction to its
tions-Australia and Great Britain-and
often expressed intention to work with
naval vessels of five nations-Australia, Can-
other nations to achieve peace in the world.
ada, Great Britain, the Netherlands and New
For our part, we shall continue to sup-
Zealand-have been made available for op-
port the United Nations action to restore
erations in the Korean area, along with forces
peace in the Korean area.
of Korea and the United States, under Gen-
As the situation has developed, I have
eral MacArthur's command. The other
authorized a number of measures to be
offers of assistance that have been and will
taken. Within the first week of the fight-
continue to be made will be coordinated by
ing, General MacArthur reported, after a
the United Nations and by the unified com-
visit to the front, that the forces from north
mand, in order to support the effort in Korea
Korea were continuing to drive south, and
to maximum advantage.
further support to the Republic of Korea was
All the members of the United Nations
needed. Accordingly, General MacArthur
who have indorsed the action of the Se-
was authorized to use United States Army
curity Council realize the significance of
troops in Korea, and to use United States
the step that has been taken. This united
aircraft of the Air Force and the Navy to
and resolute action to put down lawless ag-
conduct missions against specific military
gression is a milestone toward the estab-
targets in Korea north of the thirty-eighth
lishment of a rule of law among nations.
parallel, where necessary to carry out the
Only a few countries have failed to sup-
United Nations resolution. General Mac-
port the common action to restore the peace.
Arthur was also directed to blockade the
The most important of these is the Soviet
Korean coast.
Union.
The attacking forces from the north have
Since the Soviet representative had re-
continued to move forward, although their
fused to participate in the meetings of the
advance has been slowed down. The troops
Security Council which took action regard-
of the Republic of Korea, though initially
ing Korea, the United States brought the
overwhelmed by the tanks and artillery of
matter directly to the attention of the Soviet
the surprise attack by the invaders, have been
Government in Moscow. On June 27th, we
reorganized and are fighting bravely.
requested the Soviet Government, in view
United States forces, as they have arrived
of its known close relations with the north
in the area, have fought with great valor.
Korean regime, to use its influence to have
The Army troops have been conducting a
the invaders withdraw at once.
very difficult delaying operation with skill
530
Harry S. Truman, 1950
July I9 [193]
Government, in its reply on
and determination, outnumbered many
implications for peace throughout the world.
in subsequent statements, has
times over by attacking troops, spearheaded
The attack upon the Republic of Korea
that the attack launched
by tanks. Despite the bad weather of the
makes it plain beyond all doubt that the
Korean forces was provoked
rainy season, our troops have been valiantly
international communist movement is pre-
of Korea, and that the ac-
supported by the air and naval forces of
pared to use armed invasion to conquer
United Nations Security Coun-
both the United States and other mem-
independent nations. We must therefore
bers of the United Nations.
recognize the possibility that armed aggres-
claims are flatly disproved by
In this connection, I think it is important
sion may take place in other areas.
that the nature of our military action in
In view of this, I have already directed
of the Soviet Government
Korea be understood. It should be made
that United States forces in support of the
aggression against the Repub-
perfectly clear that the action was under-
Philippines be strengthened, and that mili-
in direct contradiction to its
taken as a matter of basic moral principle.
tary assistance be speeded up to the
intention to work with
The United States was going to the aid of a
Philippine Government and to the Asso-
to achieve peace in the world.
nation established and supported by the
ciated States of Indo-China and to the forces
we shall continue to sup-
United Nations and unjustifiably attacked
of France in Indo-China. I have also or-
Nations action to restore
by an aggressor force. Consequently, we
dered the United States Seventh Fleet to pre-
Korean
area.
were not deterred by the relative immediate
vent any attack upon Formosa, and I have
has developed, I have
superiority of the attacking forces, by the
requested the Chinese Government on For-
number of measures to be
fact that our base of supplies was 5,000 miles
mosa to cease all air and sea operations
in the first week of the fight-
away, or by the further fact that we would
against the mainland. These steps were at
MacArthur reported, after a
have to supply our forces through port
once reported to the United Nations Secu-
that the forces from north
facilities that are far from satisfactory.
rity Council.
ontinuing to drive south, and
We are moving as rapidly as possible to
Our action in regard to Formosa was a
to the Republic of Korea was
bring to bear on the fighting front larger
matter of elementary security. The peace
ordingly, General MacArthur
forces and heavier equipment, and to in-
and stability of the Pacific area had been
to use United States Army
crease our naval and air superiority. But it
violently disturbed by the attack on Korea.
and to use United States
will take time, men, and material to slow
Attacks elsewhere in the Pacific area would
Air Force and the Navy to
down the forces of aggression, bring those
have enlarged the Korean crisis, thereby
against specific military
forces to a halt, and throw them back.
rendering much more difficult the carrying
north of the thirty-eighth
Nevertheless, our assistance to the Re-
out of our obligations to the United Nations
necessary to carry out the
public of Korea has prevented the invaders
in Korea.
resolution. General Mac-
from crushing that nation in a few days-as
In order that there may be no doubt in
directed to blockade the
they had evidently expected to do. We are
any quarter about our intentions regarding
determined to support the United Nations
Formosa, I wish to state that the United
forces from the north have
in its effort to restore peace and security to
States has no territorial ambitions what-
nove forward, although their
Korea, and its effort to assure the people
ever concerning that island, nor do we seek
slowed down. The troops
of Korea an opportunity to choose their
for ourselves any special position or privi-
of Korea, though initially
own form of government free from coercion,
lege on Formosa. The present military neu-
by the tanks and artillery of
as expressed in the General Assembly reso-
tralization of Formosa is without prejudice
by the invaders, have been
lutions of November 14, 1947, and Decem-
to political questions affecting that island.
are fighting bravely.
ber 12, 1948.
Our desire is that Formosa not become em-
forces, as they have arrived
In addition to the direct military effort
broiled in hostilities disturbing to the peace
fought with great valor.
we and other members of the United Na-
of the Pacific and that all questions affecting
have been conducting a
tions are making in Korea, the outbreak of
Formosa be settled by peaceful means as
delaying operation with skill
aggression there requires us to consider its
envisaged in the Charter of the United Na-
53I
[193] July I9
Public Papers of the Presidents
tions. With peace re-established, even the
London this spring. Recent events make it
most complex political questions are sus-
even more urgent than it was at that time to
ceptible of solution. In the presence of
build and maintain these defenses.
brutal and unprovoked aggression, how-
Under all the circumstances, it is apparent
ever, some of these questions may have to
that the United States is required to increase
be held in abeyance in the interest of the
its military strength and preparedness not
essential security of all.
only to deal with the aggression in Korea but
The outbreak of aggression in the Far
also to increase our common defense, with
East does not, of course, lessen, but instead
other free nations, against further aggression.
increases, the importance of the common
The increased strength which is needed
strength of the free nations in other parts of
falls into three categories.
the world. The attack on the Republic
In the first place, to meet the situation in
of Korea gives added urgency to the ef-
Korea, we shall need to send additional men,
forts of the free nations to increase and to
equipment and supplies to General Mac-
unify their common strength, in order to
Arthur's command as rapidly as possible.
deter a potential aggressor.
In the second place, the world situation re-
To be able to accomplish this objective,
quires that we increase substantially the size
the free nations must maintain a sufficient
and materiel support of our armed forces,
defensive military strength in being, and,
over and above the increases which are
even more important, a solid basis of eco-
needed in Korea.
nomic strength, capable of rapid mobiliza-
In the third place, we must assist the free
tion in the event of emergency.
nations associated with us in common de-
The strong cooperative efforts that have
fense to augment their military strength.
been made by the United States and other
Of the three categories I have just enumer-
free nations, since the end of World War
ated, the first two involve increases in our
II, to restore economic vitality to Europe
own military manpower, and in the material
and other parts of the world, and the co-
support that our men must have.
operative efforts we have begun in order to
To meet the increased requirements for
increase the productive capacity of under-
military manpower, I have authorized the
developed areas, are extremely important
Secretary of Defense to exceed the budgeted
contributions to the growing economic
strength of military personnel for the Army,
strength of all the free nations, and will be
Navy, and Air Force, and to use the Selective
of even greater importance in the future.
Service system to such extent as may be re-
We have been increasing our common de-
quired in order to obtain the increased
fensive strength under the treaty of Rio de
strength which we must have. I have also
Janeiro and the North Atlantic Treaty,
authorized the Secretary of Defense to meet
which are collective security arrangements
the need for military manpower by calling
within the framework of the United Nations
into active Federal service as many National
Charter. We have also taken action to
Guard units and as many units and indi-
bolster the military defenses of individual
viduals of the Reserve forces of the Army,
free nations, such as Greece, Turkey, and
Navy, and Air Forces as may be required.
Iran.
I have directed the Secretary of Defense
The defenses of the North Atlantic Treaty
and the Joint Chiefs of Staff to keep our mili-
area were considered a matter of great
tary manpower needs under constant study,
urgency by the North Atlantic Council in
in order that further increases may be made
532
Harry S. Truman, 1950
July I9 [193]
Recent events make it
as required. There are now statutory limits
fense, further assistance on our part will be
than it was at that time to
on the sizes of the armed forces, and since
required. Additional assistance may also be
these
defenses.
we may need to exceed these limits, I rec-
needed to increase the strength of certain
circumstances, it is apparent
ommend that they be removed.
other free nations whose security is vital to
States is required to increase
To increase the level of our military
our own.
rength and preparedness not
strength will also require additional supplies
In the case of the North Atlantic area
the aggression in Korea but
and equipment. Procurement of many
these requirements will reflect the consulta-
our common defense, with
items has already been accelerated, in some
tions now going on with the other nations
against further aggression.
cases for use in Korea, in others to replace
associated with us in the North Atlantic
strength which is needed
reserve stocks which are now being sent to
Treaty. As soon as it is possible to deter-
categories.
Korea, and in still others to add to our gen-
mine what each nation will need to do, I
to meet the situation in
eral level of preparedness. Further increases
shall lay before the Congress a request for
need to send additional men,
in procurement, resulting in a higher rate of
such funds as are shown to be necessary to
supplies to General Mac-
production of military equipment and sup-
the attainment and maintenance of our com-
as rapidly as possible.
plies, will be necessary.
mon strength at an adequate level.
place, the world situation re-
The increases in the size of the armed
The steps which we must take to support
increase substantially the size
forces, and the additional supplies and equip-
the United Nations action in Korea, and to
support of our armed forces,
ment which will be needed, will require
increase our own strength and the common
the increases which are
additional appropriations. Within the next
defense of the free world, will necessarily
few days, I will transmit to the Congress
have repercussions upon our domestic
place, we must assist the free
specific requests for appropriations in the
economy.
with us in common de-
amount of approximately ten billion dollars.
Many of our young men are-in battle now,
their military strength.
These requests for appropriations will be
or soon will be. Others must be trained.
categories I have just enumer-
addressed to the needs of our own military
The equipment and supplies they need, and
two involve increases in our
forces. Earlier, I referred to the fact that we
those required for adequate emergency re-
nanpower, and in the material
must also assist other free nations in the
serves, must be produced. They must be
men
must
have.
strengthening of our common defenses. The
available promptly, at reasonable cost, and
increased requirements for
action we must take to accomplish this is
without disrupting the efficient functioning
I have authorized the
just as important as the measures required
of the economy.
efense to exceed the budgeted
to strengthen our own forces.
We must continue to recognize that our
personnel for the Army,
The authorization bill for the Mutual De-
strength is not to be measured in military
Force, and to use the Selective
fense Assistance Program for 1951, now be-
terms alone. Our power to join in a com-
to such extent as may be re-
fore the House of Representatives, is an
mon defense of peace rests fundamentally
to obtain the increased
important immediate step toward the
on the productive capacity and energies of
we must have. I have also
strengthening of our collective security. It
our people. In all that we do, therefore, we
Secretary of Defense to meet
should be enacted without delay.
must make sure that the economic strength
nilitary manpower by calling
But it is now clear that the free nations
which is at the base of our security is not
service as many National
of the world must step up their common se-
impaired, but continues to grow.
nd as many units and indi-
curity program. The other nations asso-
Our economy has tremendous productive
Reserve forces of the Army,
ciated with us in the Mutual Defense As-
power. Our total output of goods and serv-
Forces as may be required.
sistance Program, like ourselves, will need
ices is now running at an annual rate of
the Secretary of Defense
to divert additional economic resources to
nearly 270 billion dollars-over 100 billion
of Staff to keep our mili-
defense purposes. In order to enable the
dollars higher than in 1939. The rate is
needs under constant study,
nations associated with us to make their
now about I3 billion dollars higher than a
arther increases may be made
maximum contribution to our common de-
year ago, and about 8 billion dollars higher
533
[193] July I9
Public Papers of the Presidents
than the previous record rate reached in
total production can be expanded. Some
1948. All the foregoing figures have been
materials were in short supply even before
adjusted for price changes, and are there-
the Korean situation developed. The steel
fore a measure of actual output. The index
industry, for example, was operating at ca-
of industrial production, now at 197, is I2
pacity levels, and even so was not able to
per cent higher than the average for last year,
satisfy all market demands. Some other
and 8I per cent higher than in 1939.
construction materials, and certain other
We now have 61½ million people in ci-
products, were also under pressure and their
vilian employment. There are 16 million
prices were rising-even before the outbreak
more people in productive jobs than there
in Korea.
were in 1939. We are now producing II
The substantial speed-up of military pro-
million more tons of steel a year than in the
curement will intensify these shortages. Ac-
peak war year 1944. Electric power output
tion must be taken to insure that these short-
has risen from 128 billion kilowatt hours in
ages do not interfere with or delay the ma-
1939, to 228 billion hours in 1944, to 317
terials and the supplies needeed for the
billion hours now. Food production is about
national defense.
a third higher than it ever was before the
Further, the dollars spent now for mili-
war, and is practically as high as it was
tary purposes will have a magnified effect
during the war years, when we were sending
upon the economy as a whole, since they will
far more food abroad than we are now.
be added to the high level of current civilian
The potential productive power of our
demand. These increased pressures, if ne-
economy is even greater. We can achieve
glected, could drive us into a general in-
some immediate increase in production by
flationary situation. The best evidence of
employing men and facilities not now fully
this is the recent price advances in many
utilized. And we can continue to increase
raw materials and in the cost of living, even
our total annual output each year, by putting
upon the mere expectancy of increased mili-
to use the increasing skills of our growing
tary outlays.
population and the higher productive ca-
In these circumstances, we must take
pacity which results from plant expansion,
action to insure that the increased national
new inventions, and more efficient methods
defense needs will be met, and that in the
of production.
process we do not bring on an inflation,
With this enormous economic strength,
with its resulting hardship for every family.
the new and necessary programs I am now
At the same time, we must recognize
recommending can be undertaken with con-
that it will be necessary for a number of
fidence in the ability of our economy to bear
years to support continuing defense expendi-
the strains involved. Nevertheless, the mag-
tures, including assistance to other nations,
nitude of the demands for military purposes
at a higher level than we had previously
that are now foreseeable, in an economy
planned. Therefore, the economic meas-
which is already operating at a very high
ures we take now must be planned and used
level, will require substantial redirection of
in such a manner as to develop and main-
economic resources.
tain our economic strength for the long run
Under the program for increasing mili-
as well as the short run.
tary strength which I have outlined above,
I am recommending certain legislative
military and related procurement will need
measures to help achieve these objectives.
to be expanded at a more rapid rate than
I believe that each of them should be
534
Harry S. Truman, 1950
July I9 [193]
can be expanded. Some
promptly enacted. We must be sure to take
ernment deficit.
in short supply even before
the steps that are necessary now, or we shall
There are two fundamental principles
developed. The steel
surely be required to take much more dras-
which must guide us in framing measures
example, was operating at ca-
tic steps later on.
to obtain these additional revenues:
and even so was not able to
First, we should adopt such direct meas-
(A) We must make every effort to finance
demands. Some other
ures as are now necessary to assure prompt
the greatest possible amount of needed ex-
materials, and certain other
and adequate supplies of goods for mili-
penditures by taxation. The increase of
also under pressure and their
tary and essential civilian use. I therefore
taxes is our basic weapon in offsetting the in-
ing-even before the outbreak
recommend that the Congress now enact
flationary pressures exerted by enlarged gov-
legislation authorizing the Government to
ernment expenditures. Heavier taxes will
speed-up of military pro-
establish priorities and allocate materials
make general controls less necessary.
intensify these shortages. Ac-
as necessary to promote the national secu-
(B) We must provide for a balanced sys-
to insure that these short-
rity; to limit the use of materials for non-
tem of taxation which makes a fair distribu-
terfere with or delay the ma-
essential purposes; to prevent inventory
tion of the tax burden among the different
supplies needeed for the
hoarding; and to requisition supplies and
groups of individuals and business concerns
materials needed for the national defense,
in the Nation. A balanced tax program
dollars spent now for mili-
particularly excessive and unnecessary inven-
should also have as a major aim the elimina-
will have a magnified effect
tories.
tion of profiteering.
as a whole, since they will
Second, we must promptly adopt some
At an appropriate time, as soon as the
high level of current civilian
general measures to compensate for the
necessary studies are completed, I shall pre-
increased pressures, if ne-
growth of demand caused by the expansion
sent to the Congress a program based on
drive us into a general in-
of military programs in a period of high
these principles to assure the financing of our
The best evidence of
civilian incomes. I am directing all execu-
needs in a manner which will be fair to all
price advances in many
tive agencies to conduct a detailed review of
our citizens, which will help prevent infla-
and in the cost of living, even
Government programs, for the purpose of
tion, and which will maintain the fiscal posi-
expectancy of increased mili-
modifying them wherever practicable to
tion of the Nation in the soundest possible
lessen the demand upon services, commod-
condition.
rcumstances, we must take
ities, raw materials, manpower, and facili-
As a further important safeguard against
that the increased national
ties which are in competition with those
inflation, we shall need to restrain credit ex-
will be met, and that in the
needed for national defense. The Govern-
pansion. I recommend that the Congress
not bring on an inflation,
ment, as well as the public, must exercise
now authorize the control of consumer credit
hardship for every family.
great restraint in the use of those goods and
and credit used for commodity speculation.
time, we must recognize
services which are needed for our increased
In the housing field, where Government
necessary for a number of
defense efforts.
credit is an important factor, I have directed
continuing defense expendi-
Nevertheless, the increased appropriations
that certain available credit restraints be ap-
assistance to other nations,
for the Department of Defense, plus the de-
plied, and I recommend that further controls
than we had previously
fense-related appropriations which I have
be authorized, particularly to restrain ex-
refore, the economic meas-
recently submitted for power development
pansion of privately-financed real estate
must be planned and used
and atomic energy, and others which will be
credit. These actions will not only reduce
as to develop and main-
necessary for such purposes as stockpiling,
the upward pressure on prices, but will also
strength for the long run
will mean sharply increased Federal ex-
reduce the demand for certain critical ma-
run.
penditures. For this reason, we should in-
terials which are required for the production
mending certain legislative
crease Federal revenues more sharply than I
of military equipment.
achieve these objectives.
have previously recommended, in order to
Third, we must take steps to accelerate and
each of them should be
reduce the inflationary effect of the Gov-
increase the production of essential materials,
535
[193] July I9
Public Papers of the Presidents
products, and services. I recommend,
will be met with force. This is the signifi-
therefore, that the Congress authorize, for
cance of Korea-and it is a significance
national defense purposes, production loan
whose importance cannot be over-estimated.
guarantees and loans to increase production.
I shall not attempt to predict the course of
I also recommend that the Congress au-
events. But I am sure that those who have
thorize the making of long-term contracts
it in their power to unleash or withhold acts
and other means to encourage the production
of armed aggression must realize that new
of certain materials in short supply.
recourse to aggression in the world today
In the forthcoming Midyear Economic
might well strain to the breaking point the
Report, I shall discuss in greater detail the
fabric of world peace.
current economic situation, and the economic
The United States can be proud of the part
measures which I have recommended. If
it has played in the United Nations action in
these measures are made available promptly,
this crisis. We can be proud of the unhesi-
and firmly administered, I believe we will be
tating support of the American people for
able to meet military needs without serious
the resolute actions taken to halt the aggres-
disruption of the economy.
sion in Korea and to support the cause of
If we are to be successful, there must be
world peace.
sensible and restrained action by business-
The Congress of the United States, by its
men, labor, farmers and consumers. The
strong, bi-partisan support of the steps we
people of this country know the seriousness
are taking and by repeated actions in sup-
of inflation, and will, I am sure, do every-
port of international cooperation, has con-
thing they can to see that it does not come
tributed most vitally to the cause of peace.
upon us. However, if a sharp rise in prices
The expressions of support which have
should make it necessary, I shall not hesitate
been forthcoming from the leaders of both
to recommend the more measures of
political parties for the actions of our Gov-
price control and rationing.
ernment and of the United Nations in deal-
The hard facts of the present situation re-
ing with the present crisis, have buttressed
quire relentless determination and firm ac-
the firm morale of the entire free world in
tion. The course of the fighting thus far in
the face of this challenge.
Korea shows that we can expect no easy solu-
The American people, together with other
tion to the conflict there. We are confronted
free peoples, seek a new era in world affairs.
in Korea with well-supplied, well-led forces
We seek a world where all men may live in
which have been long trained for aggressive
peace and freedom, with steadily improving
action. We and the other members of the
living conditions, under governments of
United Nations who have joined in the effort
their own free choice.
to restore peace in Korea must expect a hard
For ourselves, we seek no territory or
and costly military operation.
domination over others. We are determined
We must also prepare ourselves better to
to maintain our democratic institutions so
fulfill our responsibilities toward the preser-
that Americans now and in the future can
vation of international peace and security
enjoy personal liberty, economic opportunity,
against possible further aggression. In this
and political equality. We are concerned
effort, we will not flinch in the face of danger
with advancing our prosperity and our well-
or difficulty.
being as a Nation, but we know that our
The free world has made it clear, through
future is inseparably joined with the future
the United Nations, that lawless aggression
of other free peoples.
536
dents
Harry S. Truman, 1950
July I9 [194]
with force. This is the signifi-
We will follow the course we have chosen
NOTE: On July 24 the White House issued a release
Korea-and it is a significance
with courage and with faith, because we
announcing supplemental estimates of appropria-
ortance cannot be over-estimated.
tions for the Department of Defense for fiscal year
carry in our hearts the flame of freedom. We
1951 amounting to $10,486,976,000, and on August 4
attempt to predict the course of
are fighting for liberty and for peace-and
the White House announced an additional estimate
I am sure that those who have
with God's blessing we shall succeed.
of supplemental appropriations of $1,155,930,000
ower to unleash or withhold acts
ggression must realize that new
HARRY S. TRUMAN
aggression in the world today
strain to the breaking point the
peace.
194
Radio and Television Address to the American People
States can be proud of the part
on the Situation in Korea. July 19, 1950
in the United Nations action in
[Delivered from the White House at 10:30 p.m. ]
We can be proud of the unhesi-
of the American people for
My fellow citizens:
Korea came about.
actions taken to halt the aggres-
At noon today I sent a message to the Con-
Before and during World War II, Korea
and to support the cause of
gress about the situation in Korea. I want
-was subject to Japanese rule. When the
to talk to you tonight about that situation,
fighting stopped, it was agreed that troops
of the United States, by its
and about what it means to the security of
of the Soviet Union would accept the sur-
support of the steps we
the United States and to our hopes for peace
render of the Japanese soldiers in the north-
nd by repeated actions in sup-
in the world.
ern part of Korea, and that American forces
rnational cooperation, has con-
Korea is a small country, thousands of
would accept the surrender of the Japanese
vitally to the cause of peace.
miles away, but what is happening there is
in the southern part. For this purpose, the
of support which have
important to every American.
38th parallel was used as the dividing line.
from the leaders of both
On Sunday, June 25th, Communist forces
Later, the United Nations sought to es-
for the actions of our Gov-
attacked the Republic of Korea.
tablish Korea as a free and independent na-
of the United Nations in deal-
This attack has made it clear, beyond all
tion. A commission was sent out to super-
present crisis, have buttressed
doubt, that the international Communist
vise a free election in the whole of Korea.
of the entire free world in
movement is willing to use armed invasion
However, this election was held only in the
challenge.
to conquer independent nations. An act of
southern part of the country, because the So-
people, together with other
aggression such as this creates a very real
viet Union refused to permit an election for
a new era in world affairs.
danger to the security of all free nations.
this purpose to be held in the northern part.
where all men may live in
The attack upon Korea was an outright
Indeed, the Soviet authorities even refused to
with steadily improving
breach of the peace and a violation of the
permit the United Nations Commission to
under governments of
Charter of the United Nations. By their
visit northern Korea.
choice.
actions in Korea, Communist leaders have
Nevertheless, the United Nations decided
we seek no territory or
demonstrated their contempt for the basic
to go ahead where it could. In August 1948
others. We are determined
moral principles on which the United Na-
the Republic of Korea was established as a
democratic institutions so
tions is founded. This is a direct challenge
free and independent nation in that part of
now and in the future can
to the efforts of the free nations to build the
Korea south of the 38th parallel.
liberty, economic opportunity,
kind of world in which men can live in
In December 1948, the Soviet Union stated
equality. We are concerned
freedom and peace.
that it had withdrawn its troops from north-
our prosperity and our well-
This challenge has been presented
ern Korea and that a local government had
but we know that our
squarely. We must meet it squarely.
been established there. However, the Com-
parably joined with the future
It is important for all of us to understand
munist authorities never have permitted the
eoples.
the essential facts as to how the situation in
United Nations observers to visit northern
41-355-65-37
537
[194] July I9
Public Papers of the Presidents
Korea to see what was going on behind that
curity Council to restore peace in Korea.
part of the Iron Curtain.
These actions by the United Nations and
It was from that area, where the Com-
its members are of great importance. The
munist authorities have been unwilling to
free nations have now made it clear that law-
let the outside world see what was going on,
less aggression will be met with force. The
that the attack was launched against the Re-
free nations have learned the fateful lesson
public of Korea on June 25th. That attack
of the 1930's. That lesson is that aggression
came without provocation and without warn-
must be met firmly. Appeasement leads
ing. It was an act of raw aggression, with-
only to further aggression and ultimately to
out a shadow of justification.
war.
I repeat that it was an act of raw aggres-
The principal effort to help the Koreans
sion. It had no justification whatever.
preserve their independence, and to help
The Communist invasion was launched in
the United Nations restore peace, has been
great force, with planes, tanks, and artillery.
made by the United States. We have sent
The size of the attack, and the speed with
land, sea, and air forces to assist in these op-
which it was followed-up, make it perfectly
erations. - We have done this because we
plain that it had been plotted long in advance.
know that what is at stake here is nothing
As soon as word of the attack was received,
less than our own national security and the
Secretary of State Acheson called me at In-
peace of the world.
dependence, Mo., and informed me that,
So far, two other nations-Australia and
with my approval, he would ask for an im-
Great Britain-have sent planes to Korea;
mediate meeting of the United Nations Se-
and six other nations-Australia, Canada,
curity Council. The Security- Council met
France, Great Britain, the Netherlands, and
just 24 hours after the Communist invasion
New Zealand-have made naval forces
began.
available.
One of the main reasons the Security
Under the flag of the United Nations a
Council was set up was to act in such cases
unified command has been established for all
as this-to stop outbreaks of aggression in a
forces of the members of the United Nations
hurry before they develop into general con-
fighting in Korea. Gen. Douglas Mac-
flicts. In this case the Council passed a reso-
Arthur is the commander of this combined
lution which called for the invaders of Korea
force.
to stop fighting, and to withdraw. The
The prompt action of the United Nations
Council called on all members of the United
to put down lawless aggression, and the
Nations to help carry out this resolution.
prompt response to this action by free peoples
The Communist invaders ignored the action
all over the world, will stand as a landmark
of the Security Council and kept right on
in mankind's long search for a rule of law
with their attack.
among nations.
The Security Council then met again. It
Only a few countries have failed to indorse
recommended that members of the United
the efforts of the United Nations to stop the
Nations help the Republic of Korea repel the
fighting in Korea. The most important of
attack and help restore peace and security
these is the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union
in that area.
has boycotted the meetings of the United Na-
Fifty-two of the 59 countries which are
tions Security Council. It has refused to
members of the United Nations have given
support the actions of the United Nations
their support to the action taken by the Se-
with respect to Korea.
538
Harry S. Truman, 1950
July I9 [194]
to restore peace in Korea.
The United States requested the Soviet
selves to meet the deliberately planned attack
by the United Nations and
Government, 2 days after the fighting started,
of the North Korean Communist forces,
are of great importance. The
to use its influence with the North Koreans
have now made it clear that law-
which are well-equipped, well-led, and
to have them withdraw. The Soviet Gov-
battle-trained, and which have at times out-
will be met with force. The
ernment refused.
have learned the fateful lesson
numbered our troops by as much as 20 to I.
The Soviet Government has said many
"Our Army troops, ably supported by
That lesson is that aggression
times that it wants peace in the world, but
tactical aircraft of the United States Air
firmly. Appeasement leads
its attitude toward this act of aggression
Force and Navy and our Australian friends,
aggression and ultimately to
against the Republic of Korea is in direct
flying under the most adverse conditions of
contradiction of its statements.
effort to help the Koreans
weather, have already distinguished them-
For our part, we shall continue to support
selves in the most difficult of military opera-
independence, and to help
the United Nations action to restore peace
Nations restore peace, has been
tions-a delaying action. The fact that they
in the world.
United States. We have sent
are preventing the Communists from over-
We know that it will take a hard, tough
running Korea-which this calculated attack
air forces to assist in these op-
fight to halt the invasion, and to drive the
have done this because we
had been designed to accomplish-is a
Communists back. The invaders have been
what is at stake here is nothing
splendid tribute to the ability of our Armed
provided with enough equipment and sup-
Forces to convert quickly from the peaceful
own national security and the
world.
plies for a long campaign. They over-
duties of occupation to the grim duties of
whelmed the lightly armed defense forces
war.
other nations-Australia and
of the Korean Republic in the first few days
"The task that confronts us is not an easy
sent planes to Korea;
and drove southward.
one, but I am confident of the outcome."
nations-Australia, Canada,
Now, however, the Korean defenders have
Britain, the Netherlands, and
I shall also read to you part of a report
reorganized and are making a brave fight
that I received from General MacArthur
made naval forces
for their liberty, and an increasing number
within the last few hours.
of American troops have joined them. Our
flag of the United Nations a
General MacArthur says:
forces have fought a skillful, rearguard de-
and has been established for all
"It is, of course, impossible to predict with
laying action, pending the arrival of rein-
members of the United Nations
any degree of accuracy the future incidents
forcements. Some of these reinforcements
Korea. Gen. Douglas Mac-
of a military campaign. Over a broad front
are now arriving; others are on the way from
commander of this combined
involving continuous local struggles, there
the United States.
are bound to be ups and downs, losses as
I should like to read you a part of a report
well as successes.
But the issue of battle
action of the United Nations
I have received from General Collins, Chief
lawless aggression, and the
is now fully joined and will proceed along
of Staff of the United States Army. General
lines of action in which we will not be with-
to this action by free peoples
Collins and General Vandenberg, Chief of
will stand as a landmark
out choice. Our hold upon the southern part
Staff of the Air Force, have just returned
of Korea represents a secure base. Our cas-
search for a rule of law
from an inspection trip to Korea and Japan.
ualties, despite overwhelming odds, have
ountries have failed to indorse
This is what General Collins had to say:
been relatively light. Our strength will con-
"The United States Armed Forces in
United Nations to stop the
tinually increase while that of the enemy will
Korea are giving a splendid account of
The most important of
relatively decrease. His supply line is in-
themselves.
Union. The Soviet Union
secure. He has had his great chance and
"Our Far Eastern forces were organized
failed to exploit it. We are now in Korea in
meetings of the United Na-
Council. It has refused to
and equipped primarily to perform peaceful
force, and with God's help we are there to
occupation duties in Japan. However,
of the United Nations
stay until the constitutional authority of the
Korea.
under General MacArthur's magnificent
Republic of Korea is fully restored."
leadership, they have quickly adapted them-
These and other reports I have received
539
[194] July I9
Public Papers of the Presidents
show that our Armed Forces are acting with
close teamwork and efficiency to meet the
for this purpose. This is of great importance.
The free nations face a worldwide threat.
problems facing us in Korea.
It must be met with a worldwide defense.
These reports are reassuring, but they also
The United States and other free nations can
show that the job ahead of us in Korea is long
multiply their strength by joining with one
and difficult.
another in a common effort to provide this
Furthermore, the fact that Communist
defense. This is our best hope for peace.
forces have invaded Korea is a warning that
The things we need to do to build up our
there may be similar acts of aggression in
military defense will require considerable
other parts of the world. The free nations
adjustment in our domestic economy. We
must be on their guard, more than ever be-
have a tremendously rich and productive
fore, against this kind of sneak attack.
economy, and it is expanding every year.
It is obvious that we must increase our
military strength and preparedness immedi-
Our job now is to divert to defense pur-
poses more of that tremendous productive
ately. There are three things we need to do.
capacity-more steel, more aluminum, more
First, we need to send more men, equip-
of a good many things.
ment, and supplies to General MacArthur.
Some of the additional production for mili-
Second, in view of the world situation, we
tary purposes can come from making fuller
need to build up our own Army, Navy, and
use of plants which are not operating at
Air Force over and above what is needed in
capacity. But many of our industries are
Korea.
already going full tilt, and until we can add
Third, we need to speed up our work with
new capacity, some of the resources we need
other countries in strengthening our com-
for the national defense will have to be
mon defenses.
taken from civilian uses.
To help meet these needs, I have already
This requires us to take certain steps to
authorized increases in the size of our Armed
make sure that we obtain the things we need
Forces. These increases will come in part
for national defense, and at the same time
from volunteers, in part from Selective Serv-
guard against inflationary price rises.
ice, and in part from the National Guard
The steps that are needed now must be
and the Reserves.
taken promptly.
I have also ordered that military supplies
In the message which I sent to the Con-
and equipment be obtained at a faster rate.
gress today, I described the economic meas-
The necessary increases in the size of our
ures which are required at this time.
Armed Forces, and the additional equipment
First, we need laws which will insure
they must have, will cost about $10 billion,
prompt and adequate supplies for military
and I am asking the Congress to appropriate
and essential civilian use. I have therefore
the amount required.
These funds will be used to train men and
recommended that the Congress give the
Government power to guide the flow of ma-
equip them with tanks, planes, guns, and
terials into essential uses, to restrict their
ships, in order to build the strength we need
use for nonessential purposes, and to pre-
to help assure peace in the world.
vent the accumulation of unnecessary
When we have worked out with other
inventories.
free countries an increased program for our
Second, we must adopt measures to pre-
common defense, I shall recommend to the
vent inflation and to keep our Government
Congress that additional funds be provided
in a sound financial condition. One of the
540
Harry S. Truman, 1950
July I9 [194]
This is of great importance.
face a worldwide threat.
major causes of inflation is the excessive use
Hoarding food is especially foolish.
with a worldwide defense.
of credit. I have recommended that the
There is plenty of food in this country. I
and other free nations can
Congress authorize the Government to set
have read that there have been runs on sugar
strength by joining with one
limits on installment buying and to curb
in some cities. That is perfectly ridiculous.
common effort to provide this
speculation in agricultural commodities. In
We now have more sugar available than ever
is our best hope for peace.
the housing field, where Government credit
before. There are ample supplies of our
we need to do to build up our
is an important factor, I have already di-
other basic foods also.
will require considerable
rected that credit restraints be applied, and
Now, I sincerely hope that every Amer-
our domestic economy. We
I have recommended that the Congress au-
ican housewife will keep this in mind when
ndously rich and productive
thorize further controls.
she does her daily shopping.
it is expanding every year.
As an additional safeguard against infla-
If I had thought that we were actually
is to divert to defense pur-
tion, and to help finance our defense needs,
threatened by shortages of essential con-
that tremendous productive
it will be necessary to make substantial in-
sumer goods, I should have recommended
steel, more aluminum, more
creases in taxes. This is a contribution to
that price control and rationing be im-
things.
our national security that every one of us
mediately instituted. But there is no such
additional production for mili-
should stand ready to make. As soon as a
threat. We have to fear only those short-
come from making fuller
balanced and fair tax program can be worked
ages which we ourselves artificially create.
which are not operating at
out, I shall lay it before the Congress. This
Every businessman who is trying to
many of our industries are
tax program will have as a major aim the
profiteer in time of national danger-and
tilt, and until we can add
elimination of profiteering.
every person who is selfishly trying to get
of the resources we need
Third, we should increase the production
more than his neighbor-is doing just ex-
defense will have to be
of goods needed for national defense. We
actly the thing that any enemy of this coun-
uses.
must plan to enlarge our defense production,
try would want him to do.
us to take certain steps to
not just for the immediate future, but for the
If prices should rise unduly because of
obtain the things we need
next several years. This will be primarily
excessive buying or speculation, I know
fense, and at the same time
a task for our businessmen and workers.
our people will want the Government to take
aflationary price rises.
However, to help obtain the necessary in-
action, and I will not hesitate to recommend
are needed now must be
creases, the Government should be author-
rationing and price control.
ized to provide certain types of financial
We have the resources to meet our needs.
which I sent to the Con-
assistance to private industry to increase de-
Far more important, the American people
escribed the economic meas-
fense production.
are unified in their belief in democratic
required
at
this
time.
Our military needs are large, and to meet
freedom. We are united in detesting Com-
laws which will insure
them will require hard work and steady
munist slavery.
supplies for military
effort. I know that we can produce what
We know that the cost of freedom is high.
use. I have therefore
we need if each of us does his part-each
But we are determined to preserve our
the Congress give the
man, each woman, each soldier, each civilian.
freedom-no matter what the cost.
to guide the flow of ma-
This is a time for all of us to pitch in and
I know that our people are willing to do
uses, to restrict their
work together.
their part to support our soldiers and sailors
purposes, and to pre-
I have been sorry to hear that some people
and airmen who are fighting in Korea. I
mulation of unnecessary
have fallen victim to rumors in the last week
know that our fighting men can count on
or two, and have been buying up various
each and every one of you.
adopt measures to pre-
things they have heard would be scarce.
Our country stands before the world as
to keep our Government
That is foolish-I say that is foolish, and it
an example of how free men, under God,
condition. One of the
is selfish, very selfish, because hoarding re-
can build a community of neighbors, work-
sults in entirely unnecessary local shortages.
ing together for the good of all.
541
[194] July I9
Public Papers of the Presidents
That is the goal we seek not only for our-
by Air and Naval elements, forced the enemy into
selves, but for all people. We believe that
continued deployments, costly frontal attacks and
confused logistics, which so slowed his advance and
freedom and peace are essential if men are
blunted his drive that we have bought the precious
to live as our Creator intended us to live.
time necessary to build a secure base.
It is this faith that has guided us in the past,
I do not believe that history records a comparable
operation which excelled the speed and precision
and it is this faith that will fortify us in the
with which the 8th Army, the Far East Air Force
stern days ahead.
and the Seventh Fleet have been deployed to a dis-
tant land for immediate commitment to major op-
NOTE: Following is the full text of the message from
erations. It merits highest commendation for the
General Douglas MacArthur which the President
commanders, staffs and units concerned and attests
quoted in his address. The message was released
to their superior training and high state of readiness
by the White House on July 20.
to meet any eventuality. This finds added emphasis
in the fact that the Far East Command, until the
The President
President's great pronouncement to support the
The White House
epochal action of the United Nations, had no slightest
The following is my current estimate of the
responsibility for the defense of the Free Republic
Korean situation:
of Korea. With the President's decision it assumed
With the deployment in Korea of major elements
a completely new and added mission.
of the 8th Army now accomplished, the first phase
It is, of course, impossible to predict with any
of the campaign has ended and with it the chance
degree of accuracy future incidents of a military
for victory by the North Korean forces. The enemy's
campaign. Over a broad front involving continuous
plan and great opportunity depended upon the speed
local struggles, there are bound to be ups and downs,
with which he could overrun South Korea once he
losses as well as successes. Our final stabilization
had breached the Han River line and with over-
line will unquestionably be rectified and tactical
whelming numbers and superior weapons tem-
improvement will involve planned withdrawals as
porarily shattered South Korean resistance. This
well as local advances. But the issue of battle is
chance he has now lost through the extraordinary
now fully joined and will proceed along lines of
speed with which the 8th Army has been deployed
action in which we will not be without choice. Our
from Japan to stem his rush. When he crashed
hold upon the Southern part of Korea represents a
the Han Line the way seemed entirely open and
secure base. Our casualties despite overwhelming
victory was within his grasp.
odds have been relatively light. Our strength will
The desperate decision to throw in piecemeal
continually increase while that of the enemy will
American elements as they arrived by every avail-
relatively decrease. His supply line is insecure. He
able means of transport from Japan was the only
has had his great chance but failed to exploit it.
hope to save the situation. The skill and valor
We are now in Korea in force, and with God's help
thereafter displayed in successive holding actions
we are there to stay until the constitutional authority
by the ground forces in accordance with this con-
of the Republic is fully restored.
cept, brilliantly supported in complete coordination
MACARTHUR
I95 Statement by the President on the Appointment of
Charles M. Spofford as Deputy U.S. Representative
to the North Atlantic Council. July 20, 1950
MR. Charles M. Spofford, whom I have
building the defenses of the North Atlantic
appointed Deputy U.S. Representative,
area. As I indicated in my message to the
North Atlantic Council, will leave for Lon-
Congress on Wednesday, we cannot safely
don shortly to assume his duties. The Sec-
ignore the possibility of aggression in other
retary of State and I have discussed with
parts of the world besides the Far East, and
him the nature of the tasks which lie ahead
it is even more urgent now than it was in
of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
May to strengthen the collective defense
The North Atlantic Council, in its meet-
of the North Atlantic area.
ing during May, stressed the urgency of
Through the Council of Deputies, which
542
[172] June 26
Public Papers of the Presidents
Defense Assistance Program.
to the peace of the world. Willful disregard
Those responsible for this act of aggres-
of the obligation to keep the peace cannot
sion must realize how seriously the Govern-
be tolerated by nations that support the
ment of the United States views such threats
United Nations Charter.
173 Statement by the President on the Situation in Korea.
June 27, 1950
IN KOREA the Government forces, which
corollary of this action I am calling upon
were armed to prevent border raids and to
the Chinese Government on Formosa to
preserve internal security, were attacked by
cease all air and sea operations against the
invading forces from North Korea. The
mainland. The 7th Fleet will see that this
Security Council of the United Nations
is done. The determination of the future
called upon the invading troops to cease
status of Formosa must await the restoration
hostilities and to withdraw to the 38th
of security in the Pacific, a peace settlement
parallel. This they have not done, but on
with Japan, or consideration by the United
the contrary have pressed the attack. The
Nations.
Security Council called upon all members of
I have also directed that United States
the United Nations to render every assist-
Forces in the Philippines be strengthened
ance to the United Nations in the execution
and that military assistance to the Philippine
of this resolution. In these circumstances I
Government be accelerated.
have ordered United States air and sea forces
I have similarly directed acceleration in
to give the Korean Government troops cover
the furnishing of military assistance to the
and support.
forces of France and the Associated States
The attack upon Korea makes it plain
in Indochina and the dispatch of a military
beyond all doubt that communism has
mission to provide close working relations
passed beyond the use of subversion to con-
with those forces.
quer independent nations and will now use
I know that all members of the United
armed invasion and war. It has defied the
Nations will consider carefully the conse-
orders of the Security Council of the United
quences of this latest aggression in Korea
Nations issued to preserve international
in defiance of the Charter of the United
peace and security. In these circumstances
Nations. A return to the rule of force in
the occupation of Formosa by Communist
international affairs would have far-reaching
forces would be a direct threat to the se-
effects. The United States will continue
curity of the Pacific area and to United
to uphold the rule of law.
States forces performing their lawful and
I have instructed Ambassador Austin, as
necessary functions in that area.
the representative of the United States to
Accordingly I have ordered the 7th Fleet
the Security Council, to report these steps
to prevent any attack on Formosa. As a
to the Council.
492
E814
,M54
WH
t: PLAIN
by Merle Miller
SPEAKING
PLAIN SPEAKING
raphy of Harry S. Truman
WHAT HAPPENED
An Oral Biography of Harry S. Truman
BEING DIFFERENT
DICK DARING!
UNDERSTANDING
by MERLE MILLER
LATE SEPTEMBER
11
REUNION
LANCHOLY SOUND
AND THE JUDGED
THE SURE THING
THAT WINTER
PPED THE A-BOMB
FOUNDED 1010
ISLAND 49
GPPS
Published by
Berkley Publishing Corporation
Distributed by
G.P. Putnam's Sons, New York
PLAIN SPEAKING
THE KOREAN DECISION
283
to try and hold the area
the so-called free Chinese, and then about five million of Chiang's
d be taken to defend South
men between Peking and Nanking surrendered to three hundred
thousand Communists, and the Communists used that matériel to run
be put up to the President
Chiang and his men out of China. I told you. He never was any
ut General MacArthur said
damn good.
ore, General Collins called
"They wanted me to send in about five million Americans to rescue
Chiefs of Staff] and the
him, but I wouldn't do it. There wasn't anything that could be done
discover that Mr. Truman
to save him, and he was as corrupt as they come. I wasn't going to
ey put this to him, and the
waste one single American life to save him, and I didn't care what
efore, before the rest of us
they said. They hooted and hollered and carried on and said I was
was on its way to Korea.
soft on Communism and I don't know what all. But I never gave
rning Cabinet meeting the
in on that, and I never changed my mind about Chiang and his gang.
1. He had thought what he
Every damn one of them ought to be in jail, and I'd like to live to
ked us if we had any com-
see the day they are."*
oubt in any of our minds
Dean Acheson: "Another reason for not using Chiang's troops.
If one had to use other than European and American troops, the
and approval of it, and I
troops required were Koreans. This was their country. They had been
nber of the Cabinet would
defending it. And it seemed to us that we could far better get the
dvance. This is one of the
equivalent of thirty thousand troops from reorganizing the Korean
really determines action.
Army and using them.
meet this aggression, we
"And finally, we did not wish to raise the political complications
the aggression turned out
which would have been raised, if we had introduced the Nationalist-
appeared to be.
Red Chinese controversy into the battle in Korea. We were going to
d by Generalissmo Chiang
ask many of our European allies to take part in this battle. Some
or use in Korea. The Presi-
recognized Chiang Kai-shek; some recognized the Red Chinese. And
d to this from the Defense
it would have been a devisive and not a unifying action, if we took
ng about it, we agreed that
it.
ed to us that these troops
"Therefore, we thought it wise to decline, and the President did
ops, were not well armed,
decline."
an they would be helpful.
Sir, the other day you mentioned, when you were discussing the
nd we did not want to get
Tuesday meeting between Mr. Truman and the Congressional leaders
you mentioned that there was some talk about asking for a Con-
that there was some con-
gressional resolution.
ean?
Acheson
"Toward the end of our meeting on Tuesday with the Congres-
ps in Korea. How serious
sional leaders, Senator Alexander Smith of New Jersey, who was a
member of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, asked the
ve been the use of it? They
We sent them about three
*For more of Mr. Truman's observations on Chiang and his Madame and others
of matériel, sent that to
in their crew, see the next chapter.
284
PLAIN SPEAKING
President whether or not he thought it would be a good idea if the
Congress would pass a resolution approving what the President was
doing in Korea or what the United States was doing in Korea. The
President said he would take that under advisement.
"After the meeting broke up, he asked me to consider it and meet
with him later and discuss it. I gave it a good deal of thought and
then gave the President this advice, which he followed. It seemed to
me that this should not be done. At the moment the troops of the
United States were engaged in a desperate struggle in and around
Pusan. Hundreds, thousands of them were being killed. The outcome
of the battle was not at all clear. It seemed to me if, at this time,
action was pending before the Congress, by which hearings might
be held, and long inquiries were being entered into as to whether or
not this was the right thing to do, or whether the President had the
authority to do it, or whether he needed Congressional authority for
matters of that sort-we would be doing about the worst thing we
could possibly do for the support of our troops and for their morale.
"I felt that we were in this fight-and it was a desperate fight-
and we had better concentrate all our energies in fighting it and not
in trying to get people to formally approve what was going on.
"The President accepted this advice. This is what was done. In
other words we did not follow up Senator Smith's suggestion. This
may well, in the light of events, have been a wrong decision. I don't
think so myself. But it can be argued that it was wrong. If the
Congress had promptly and without debate passed a resolution en-
dorsing vigorously what had happened, this, of course, would have
been fine, and it would have nipped in the bud all the statements
about the Korean War being Mr. Truman's war and so on.
"But that is hindsight, and I have said that I think hindsight is non-
sense. It proves nothing."
Mr. Secretary, as you know, Mr. Truman has said that the Korean
decision was his most important decision. Do you agree with that?
"Yes. In this I think he is wholly right. It was a critically im-
portant decision, and I think it was important for this reason. This
was an occasion upon which a perfectly clear alternative was pre-
sented to the United States, an alternative between withdrawing,
retreating in front of Russian pressure brought through a satellite, or
standing up and fighting and taking the consequences, and Mr.
Truman did not shrink from that decision. The United States, under
1242
THE KOREAN WAR, 1950-1953
panied by radio broadcasts asserting it to
in the remainder of his division as fast as
be "national defense" against an alleged
the units came up, General Dean partly
ROK "invasion," broke through the scat-
snubbed the NKA advance down the pen-
tered resistance of elements of the four
insula, trading terrain for time, while the
ROK divisions in the area. Its objective
1st Cavalry and 25th divisions were being
was to seize the capital and the entire
rushed from Japan. A 5-day action at
South Korean peninsula, thus presenting
Taejon (July 16-20) ended when the
the free world with a fait accompli.
NKA assaulted the 24th Division from 3
1950, June 25-30. United Nations and
directions. Dean, personally commanding
United States Reactions. The Security
his rear guard while the remainder of
Council, in emergency session (the
the division withdrew, was captured. His
U.S.S.R., boycotting the Council, had no
battered troops were relieved by the 1st
representative present to veto the action),
Cavalry Division (July 22), while the
called for immediate end to hostilities and
25th Division on its right, together with
withdrawal of the NKA, asking member
reorganized ROK divisions, slowed the
nations to assist. President Harry S Tru-
NKA advance in the center and on the
man (June 27) ordered General MacAr-
north.
thur, commanding U.S. forces in the Far
1950, July 7. MacArthur Named Com-
East, to support and cover ROK defense
mander in Chief United Nations Com-
with air and sea forces. MacArthur ef-
mand. President Truman made the ap-
fected naval blockade of the North Korean
pointment in response to a Security
coast and furnished air support. Recon-
Council request that a unified command
noitering the front in person (June 28),
be established under a U.S. officer.
as Seoul fell, he reported the ROK Army
1950, August 5-September 15. The Pusan
to be incapable of stopping the invasion
Perimeter. Lieutenant General Walton H.
even with U.S. air support. Truman au-
Walker, commanding what had now be-
thorized use of U.S. ground troops (June
come U.S. Eighth Army, stabilized his de-
30).
fense on a thinly held line extending along
MacArthur's Resources. Aside from
the Naktong River some 90 miles north
the vessels of the U.S. Seventh Fleet and
from Tsushima Strait, thence east for 60
the Far East Air Force (8½ combat
more miles to the Sea of Japan. The area
groups), U.S. ground forces-mostly in
embraced the southeast edge of the Ko-
Japan-consisted of 4 understrength divi-
rean peninsula, including Pusan, the one
sions organized in 2 skeleton army corps.
available port. On the north, 5 ROK di-
Infantry and artillery units were each at
visions, re-equipped but still shaken, at-
two-thirds strength in personnel and can-
tempted to contain the invaders, while
non, and short of antitank weapons. Corps
the western flank, where the weight of in-
troops, such as medium tanks, artillery,
cessant NKA attacks fell, was held by
and other supporting arms, did not exist.
U.S. troops, now including 2 additional
1950, June 30. U.S. Forces Begin Move to
infantry regiments and a Marine brigade.
Korea. The 24th Division (Major Gen-
The Seventh Fleet protected both sea
eral William F. Dean) began movement
flanks and harassed NKA movements
piecemeal by sea and air into Korea; 2
along the coast, while the Far East Air
more divisions were to follow.
Force (augmented by an Australian
1950, July 5. Task Force Smith. One un-
group), together with carrier-based naval
derstrength battalion (2 infantry compa-
air, hammered at NKA lines of commu-
nies) with 1 battery of artillery, under
nication and furnished much-needed close
Lieutenant Colonel Charles B. Smith,
support. Thanks to the advantage of in-
joined the ROK Army near Osan (July
terior lines, Walker was able to shift a
4). Next morning an NKA division, with
mobile reserve from point to point within
30 tanks, attacked. The ROK troops fled.
the perimeter as the NKA attacks nibbled
Task Force Smith, completely surrounded,
at his front. Several penetrations of the
held out for 7 hours. Then, ammunition
Naktong River line and a 20-mile NKA
exhausted, the survivors cut their way
advance in the north (August 26) were
out, abandoning all matériel.
checked. Choe's forces, now estimated at
1950, July 6-21. Dean's Delay. Throwing
14 infantry divisions supported by several
Harry S. Truman, 1950
June 26 [172]
the things which goes to
funds. By the time the project has been
we are using our traditional forms of gov-
a vital and effective one.
completed, the local government has ac-
ernment to solve the problems of the air
we will have in this coun-
quired new strength and new assurance in
age.
efficient air transport sys-
meeting the problems of its community.
This airport exemplifies the spirit of
needs for rapid trans-
This kind of cooperation between State
growth and confidence with which our coun-
and local governments and the National
try faces the future. We would not build so
a system, the Federal
Government is one of the most constructive
elaborate a facility for our air commerce if
great part to play. Air
aspects of our national life today. It is
we did not have faith in a peaceful future.
to the Nation as a
making people increasingly aware of their
This airport embodies our determination to
growing element in our
responsibilities as citizens of their commu-
develop the marvels of science and invention
commerce. Like all
nities. It is making them more conscious
for peaceful purposes. It strengthens our
systems, it is important
of the needs and problems of their local
economy to do its part in maintaining a
Recognizing these
governments. It is helping to strengthen the
peaceful world.
has provided various
processes of democracy throughout the
Now I dedicate this Friendship Inter-
development of our avia-
country.
national Airport to the growth and devel-
it has done from time
Such a development is of immeasurable
opment of our country.
of transportation.
importance today, when our country stands
I dedicate this great airport to the cause
which have been made
before the world as one of the leading cham-
of peace in the world.
airport program have
pions of the democratic way of life. Our
give us the kind of air
NOTE: The President spoke at II:30 a.m. In his
greatest strength in the conflict which shakes
opening words he referred to Mayor Thomas D'Ales-
need. Federal assist-
the world today is our ability to show that
andro, Jr., of Baltimore, Governor William Preston
State and local effort.
democracy can solve the problems of the
Lane, Jr., of Maryland, Senator Millard E. Tydings
of Maryland, and the Most Rev. Francis P. Keough,
programs, local
people, and provide them with greater op-
Archbishop of Baltimore.
strengthened and
portunities, and fuller lives. This airport
At the conclusion of the dedication ceremony, the
by virtue of the
is an example of democratic government
Presidential party boarded the Independence for a
flight to Kansas City, Mo.
in action. It demonstrates the way in which
misleading as the oft-
the Federal Govern-
aid programs, is
172 Statement by the President on the Violation of the
State and local gov-
political oratory-
38th Parallel in Korea. June 26, 1950
oratory. How false
I CONFERRED Sunday evening with the
of the Security Council, the United States
to anyone who has
Secretaries of State and Defense, their
will vigorously support the effort of the
by local authorities
senior advisers, and the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Council to terminate this serious breach of
airport, for example-
about the situation in the Far East created by
the peace.
of roads, or low-cost
unprovoked aggression against the Republic
Our concern over the lawless action taken
other projects fi-
of Korea.
by the forces from North Korea, and our
Federal funds. In all
The Government of the United States is
sympathy and support for the people of
initiative must come
pleased with the speed and determination
Korea in this situation, are being demon-
the planning must be
with which the United Nations Security
strated by the cooperative action of Amer-
and local govern-
Council acted to order a withdrawal of the
ican personnel in Korea, as well as by steps
laws and ordi-
invading forces to positions north of the 38th
taken to expedite and augment assistance of
boards or commis-
parallel. In accordance with the resolution
the type being furnished under the Mutual
raise most of the
491
[172] June 26
Public Papers of the Presidents
Defense Assistance Program.
to the peace of the world. Willful disregard
Those responsible for this act of aggres-
of the obligation to keep the peace cannot
sion must realize how seriously the Govern-
be tolerated by nations that support the
ment of the United States views such threats
United Nations Charter.
173 Statement by the President on the Situation in Korea. 340
June 27, 1950
IN KOREA the Government forces, which
corollary of this action I am calling upon
were armed to prevent border raids and to
the Chinese Government on Formosa to
preserve internal security, were attacked by
cease all air and sea operations against the
invading forces from North Korea. The
mainland. The 7th Fleet will see that this
Security Council of the United Nations
is done. The determination of the future
called upon the invading troops to cease
status of Formosa must await the restoration
hostilities and to withdraw to the 38th
of security in the Pacific, a peace settlement
parallel. This they have not done, but on
with Japan, or consideration by the United
the contrary have pressed the attack. The
Nations.
Security Council called upon all members of
I have also directed that United States
the United Nations to render every assist-
Forces in the Philippines be strengthened
ance to the United Nations in the execution
and that military assistance to the Philippine
of this resolution. In these circumstances I
Government be accelerated.
have ordered United States air and sea forces
I have similarly directed acceleration in
to give the Korean Government troops cover
the furnishing of military assistance to the
and support.
forces of France and the Associated States
The attack upon Korea makes it plain
in Indochina and the dispatch of a military
beyond all doubt that communism has
mission to provide close working relations
passed beyond the use of subversion to con-
with those forces.
quer independent nations and will now use
I know that all members of the United
armed invasion and war. It has defied the
Nations will consider carefully the conse-
orders of the Security Council of the United
quences of this latest aggression in Korea
Nations issued to preserve international
in defiance of the Charter of the United
peace and security. In these circumstances
Nations. A return to the rule of force in
the occupation of Formosa by Communist
international affairs would have far-reaching
forces would be a direct threat to the se-
effects. The United States will continue
curity of the Pacific area and to United
to uphold the rule of law.
States forces performing their lawful and
I have instructed Ambassador Austin, as
necessary functions in that area.
the representative of the United States to
Accordingly I have ordered the 7th Fleet
the Security Council, to report these steps
to prevent any attack on Formosa. As a
to the Council.
492
Harry S. Truman, 1950
June 30 [185]
Relief Act. It is likewise a
4. Permit reasonable compensation with
7. Include the clarifying definitions of sec-
deep concern to me that I find
respect to partners and proprietors, thus af-
tion 7 of H.R. 3436.
to agree with the Committees'
fording them the same treatment accorded
Prompt enactment of such legislation will
H.R. 3436. The language of
corporations.
make it possible for the Executive agen-
alone, or when read in the
5. Preserve jurisdiction of the courts over
cies and the courts to discharge the respon-
Committees' statements, does not
suits now pending and not require any
sibilities which I am convinced they cannot
acceptable clarification of the
claimant to start over again in the presenta-
equitably discharge under the measure that
Therefore, I see no way to
tion of his claim.
I am returning without my approval.
Act and depend upon its legis-
6. Permit a reasonable time, perhaps sixty
to provide an enforceable state-
HARRY S. TRUMAN
days, for amendment or revival of any claim.
imitations.
NOTE: See also Item 216.
my objections to the scope of
and the principles which I be-
184 White House Statement Following a Meeting Between the
write into law, I am convinced
can be reached upon what
President and Top Congressional and Military Leaders
115
has a clearcut obligation
To Review the Situation in Korea. June 30, 1950
that end, I wish to repeat that I
AT A MEETING with congressional leaders
Republic of Korea in repelling the North
to approve a bill which limits
at the White House this morning, the Presi-
and interpretation of the
Korean invaders and restoring peace in
dent, together with the Secretary of Defense,
Korea, the President announced that he had
Relief Act as suggested in
the Secretary of State, and the Joint Chiefs of
authorized the United States Air Force
Staff, reviewed with them the latest develop-
a bill incorporating the fol-
to conduct missions on specific military tar-
ments of the situation in Korea. The con-
provisions would be fair and
gets in northern Korea wherever militarily
gressional leaders were given a full review
necessary, and had ordered a naval blockade
equitable settlement of those
of the intensified military activities.
of the entire Korean coast. General Mac-
at the end of the war,
In keeping with the United Nations Se-
Arthur has been authorized to use certain
ngress feels have been rejected
"flimsy technicalities."
curity Council's request for support to the
supporting ground units.
reconsideration of the claims
with the provisions of the
185 Address at Valley Forge at the Boy Scout Jamboree.
Contractors Relief Act.
the basis for technical rejec-
June 30, 1950
either a request in writing
Governor Duff, President Houghton, Boy
that you have chosen to hold your Jamboree
the First War Powers Act,
Scouts of the world:
at this historic shrine of Valley Forge.
emand for payment of losses,
I certainly appreciate most highly this dec-
When George Washington brought his
of sustained or impending
oration you have given me. I hope I can
army to this spot in December 1777, the
to be accepted as a basis
deserve it, and that I can wear it with honor
cause of independence appeared to be lost.
to this great organization.
His army at that time numbered only II,000
consideration and settle-
As Honorary President of the Boy Scouts
men-less than one-fourth the number of
of subcontractors on the
of America, I am proud to open this Scout
Scouts attending this Jamboree. Washing-
the prime contractors if
Jamboree. I understand that there are
ton's men were without adequate food.
of written request, demand,
nearly 50,000 Scouts in this encampment.
They were in rags. Some had no shoes.
filed with a Government
I am glad to see such evidence of the
They had to build their own shelter against
contractor, or another sub-
strength of the Scout movement. And I
the bitter weather. The enemy occupied the
to
August
14,
1945.
think it most appropriate in times like these
capital city of Philadelphia. Few men be-
41-355
65
36
513
Harry S. Truman , Margaret Truman
Did MacArthur have enough military power to support the South
Koreans effectively? Would the nations of Western Europe back
us in the Security Council, where we were submitting another
resolution, calling on them and other free nations to assist us
in resisting the North Koreans? Over Secretary of Defense John-
son's objections, my father permitted General Hoyt Vandenberg
to give the congressional leaders secret details about our air
strength in the Far East. Secretary of State Acheson said he had
cablegrams from most of the countries of Western Europe, assur-
ing him of support in the UN. He also said he did not think
the Russians would return to the UN Security Council and exer-
cise their veto. Even if they did, they could not veto the resolution
which had been passed on Sunday, thanks to the Secretary of
State's swift action. Senator Tom Connally summed up congres-
sional opinion when he said that it was quite apparent that this
was "the clearest test case that the United Nations has ever faced.
If the United Nations is ever going to do anything, this is the
time, and if the United Nations cannot bring the crisis in Korea
to an end, then we might just as well wash up the United Nations
and forget it."
My father nodded. He vowed that he was going to make abso-
lutely certain that everything we did in Korea would be in sup-
port of and in conformity with the decision by the Security
Council of the United Nations.
Secretary of State Acheson then turned to a discussion of the
Soviet Union in regard to Korea. He pointed out that the Presi-
dent's statement simply referred to communism. The government
was doing its best to leave the door wide open for the Soviet
Union to back down without losing too much prestige. In connec-
tion with this policy, the Secretary of State begged the members of
Congress not to condemn the Russians specifically for the Korean
crisis. He held out the hope that if we left the door open the
Soviet government might take this opportunity to withdraw.
Dad's statement, released at 12:30 P.M. on Tuesday, June 27,
went through Washington and the other capitals of the free
world like an electric shock. Joseph C. Harsch of the Christian
Science Monitor, looking back on twenty years in Washington,
said, "Never before in that time have I felt such a sense of relief
and unity pass through this city." Both the Senate and the House
[464]
itary power to support the South
nations of Western Europe back
rose and cheered when the statement was read to them. News-
re we were submitting another
papers around the nation echoed Mr. Harsch. James Reston of
other free nations to assist us
The New York Times said it had produced "a transformation in
Over Secretary of Defense John-
the spirit of the United States government." The New York
itted General Hoyt Vandenberg
Herald Tribune ran an editorial on the front page calling it "a
rs secret details about our air
basic contribution to a genuine peace in our disturbed and dis-
y of State Acheson said he had
tracted world." At 10:45 that night, the UN Security Council,
ntries of Western Europe, assur-
with the Russians still absent, passed another resolution, calling
He also said he did not think
on member nations to "render such assistance to the Republic of
UN Security Council and exer-
Korea as may be necessary to repel the armed attack and restore
ey could not veto the resolution
international peace and security to the area."
ay, thanks to the Secretary of
Wednesday was a day for good news. Dad was reassured about
Connally summed up congres-
the rightness of his decision by Averell Harriman, just back from
it was quite apparent that this
Europe. Averell described to my father from firsthand knowledge
United Nations has ever faced.
the feeling of relief which had swept through Europe's capitals
ng to do anything, this is the
when they learned that America was standing fast. Encouraging
annot bring the crisis in Korea
news even came from Ambassador Muccio in Seoul. At 10 A.M.
ell wash up the United Nations
he sent the following telegram:
SITUATION HAD DETERIORATED so RAPIDLY HAD NOT
at he was going to make abso-
PRESIDENT'S DECISION PLUS ARRIVAL GENERAL CHURCH
lid in Korea would be in sup-
PARTY [heading the survey team my father had ordered]
the decision by the Security
BECOME KNOWN HERE IT IS DOUBTFUL ANY ORGANIZED
KOREAN RESISTANCE WOULD HAVE CONTINUED THROUGH
turned to a discussion of the
NIGHT. COMBAT AID DECISION PLUS CHURCH'S ORDER
He pointed out that the Presi-
HAVE HAD GREAT MORALE EFFECT. FORTHCOMING AIR
communism. The government
STRIKES HOPED DEMORALIZE ENEMY, MAKE POSSIBLE
or wide open for the Soviet
REFORM KOREAN ARMY SOUTH BANK HAN RIVER.
too much prestige. In connec-
State begged the members of
My father was heartened by other telegrams which flooded into
the White House from citizens all over the country. Among them
ans specifically for the Korean
if we left the door open the
was one from Thomas E. Dewey which read: "I wholeheartedly
opportunity to withdraw.
agree with and support the difficult decision you have made."
The only sour note-and even that was not completely sour-came
P.M. on Tuesday, June 27,
from Senator Taft, who rose in Congress to accuse the Truman
other capitals of the free
C. Harsch of the Christian
Administration of inviting the North Korean attack by permitting
Korea to remain divided. Everything that was wrong in the Far
twenty years in Washington,
e I felt such a sense of relief
East, according to Senator Taft, was explained by the administra-
th the Senate and the House
tion's "sympathetic acceptance of communism." The senator sin-
gled out for special criticism a speech that Secretary of State
[465]
DA566
.9
C5
V.6
WH
t: WINSTON S. CHURCHILL
HIS COMPLETE SPEECHES
1897-1963
Edited by
ROBERT RHODES JAMES
Volume
VI
1935-1942
Bettman Archive
CHELSEA HOUSE PUBLISHERS
in association with
R.R. BOWKER COMPANY
New York and London
1974
10/9
Vinston Churchill
A Time of Triumph: 1941
6535
"A STRANGE CHRISTMAS EVE"
December 24, 1941
Broadcast, Washington D.C.
the situation in
forces surren-
I spend this anniversary and festival far from my country, far from my family,
dvancing rapidly;
yet I cannot truthfully say that I feel far from home. Whether it be the ties of blood
the fighting was
on my mother's side, or the friendships I have developed here over many years of
an ominous
active life, or the commanding sentiment of comradeship in the common cause of
great peoples who speak the same language, who kneel at the same altars and, to a very
large extent, pursue the same ideals, I cannot feel myself a stranger here in the centre
and at the summit of the United States. I feel a sense of unity and fraternal association
over to Chur-
which, added to the kindliness of your welcome, convinces me that I have a right to sit
at your fireside and share your Christmas joys.
in which he had
This is a strange Christmas Eve. Almost the whole world is locked in deadly
he thought the
struggle, and, with the most terrible weapons which science can devise, the nations
advance upon each other. Ill would it be for us this Christmastide if we were not sure
: If the Allies
that no greed for the land or wealth of any other people, no vulgar ambition, no
[Editor's Note:
morbid lust for material gain at the expense of others, had led us to the field. Here, in
the base and its
the midst of war, raging and roaring over all the lands and seas, creeping nearer to our
general offensive
hearts and homes, here, amid all the tumult, we have tonight the peace of the spirit in
each cottage home and in every generous heart. Therefore we may cast aside for this
morale he
night at least the cares and dangers which beset us, and make for the children an
on conditions
evening of happiness in a world of storm. Here, then, for one night only, each home
was better today
throughout the English-speaking world should be a brightly-lighted island of happiness
and the fact that
and peace.
In answer to a
Let the children have their night of fun and laughter. Let the gifts of Father
esident, himself,
Christmas delight their play. Let us grown-ups share to the full in their unstinted
ighter.)
pleasures before we turn again to the stern task and the formidable years that lie
he said] : It
before us, resolved that, by our sacrifice and daring, these same children shall not be
in the great
robbed of their inheritance or denied their right to live in a free and decent world.
out for the
And so, in God's mercy, a happy Christmas to you all.
almost as nearly
rlands, and the
ertain American
who are giving
ington.
ending, except to call for shoring up a
sed" Star Wars program in light of
cesses scored by the Patriot antimis-
tem in the gulf. Overall military
The Presidency
ig, however, is likely to decrease, ac-
to the 1992 budget being submitted
Hugh Sidey
ek by the Pentagon, which calls for a
lion cut in projected 1992 defense
of $298.9 billion.
George Was There
hough the populace is more willing
hat it can do for the country than at
he in three decades, Bush only
T
here was a moment in the great ovation to U.S. desert forces when the cameras
in the House chamber caught the face of Senator Ted Kennedy, as enraptured
about sacrifice on the battlefield,
as everyone else by the applause that would not cease. But in the din came a tiny
the home front. Whether out of fear
echo from more than two years ago at the Democratic Convention, when Kennedy
age between the war and oil, or a
fevered his audience with his litany of Bush's ditherings, following each charge with
Is of doing anything reminiscent of
the taunt "Where was George?"
eater-wearing, thermostat-lowering
Last week George was there, the Commander in Chief who organized and
Administration, Bush devoted just
launched one of this century's most awesome military exercises. Whether it will fi-
nds to the crucial question of ener-
nally work is not the question here. His power in some ways has never been greater.
The rolling applause for the men and women who serve in the Persian Gulf was a
confirmation of sorts, even a little alarming in its hoarse embrace. Most Americans
at left him no time to address the
marched with Bush, and from the beginning of the crisis there was no doubt just
ecommendation of some Energy
where he was.
Department and White House bud-
The aura of war followed Bush all last week, visibly enhancing his stature. More
cials for a gas tax big enough to en-
than 3,500 people jammed the Washington Hilton for the national prayer breakfast
fuel conservation and fund the
that Bush attended. The speakers engaged in a kind of nervous one-upmanship in
earch for alternative sources (every
tribute to God and the G.I. At the Washington Press Club Foundation's big dinner,
a gallon raises an extra billion dol-
which Bush did not attend,
ush ducked the issue even though he
aware that the public knows U.S.
DIANA WALKER
almost no one dared rib the
President. One of the few
would not be fighting in the Persian
good laughs of the night
the region were the world's leading
came from humorist Dave
er of tapioca rather than the reposi-
Barry who, professing
70% of the world's oil reserves. In a
evenhandedness after
vide survey taken last month by bi-
some gibes aimed at White
h pollsters, oil was most often cited
House chief of staff John
main reason for the U.S. presence in
Sununu, said, "I would now
dle East. The U.S. is more reliant on
level an equally cheap shot
foil today than at any time since the
at a high-ranking, influen-
shock; imports have doubled since
tial Democrat-if there
nd last year accounted for more than
were any." Speaker of the
trade deficit. Though last fall's bud-
House Tom Foley laughed
iberations did produce a token 5e-
a little too hard. And on
increase in federal gasoline taxes,
Friday when Bush visited
sibility of further levies may have
three military bases in the
cuttled when Republican pollster
In Georgia with families of U.S. soldiers
South that had units in the
Teeter found that Reagan Demo-
gulf battle, there was an
ere the idea's fiercest opponents.
emotional intensity that topped anything Bush had ever encountered in this country.
now, Bush has good reason to in-
How could the man Kennedy taunted be so resolute? And let's not forget those
his intrinsic indifference to such
who derided him as a wimp, a lapdog, every divorced woman's first husband, a ter-
as block grants and toxic-waste dis-
minal preppy. His painful politeness and unwavering loyalty to Ronald Reagan
Being Commander in Chief is more
through mountainous deficits and Iran-contra bumbling raised the question of his
is and important than being com-
backbone. He waffled on issues like abortion and taxes, and even his supporters
of enterprise zones. But without
wondered in dark moments about his inner stuff. What this may suggest is one
ential leadership, inertia is likely to
more flaw in our system of political assessment. In our dizzy campaigns we analyze
in the home front. Television screens
a candidate too much from a few one-liners lofted by adversaries or twits. In the
throughout the Federal Triangle as
debate over terribly complex domestic issues, we frequently heap scorn on even
crats play CNN generals rather than
marginally open minds that waver a bit.
ut the unglamorous work of govern-
History shows that the demands of war often reveal special qualities in Presi-
educing America's appetite for for-
dents not easily detected in the babble of a political campaign. For 5½ months
il, finding an affordable way to re-
Bush went down a straight road to battle. There have been no black moods for
civility to cities that resemble war
Bush as there were for John F. Kennedy in the Cuban missile crisis when he be-
giving the 20% of America's chil-
lieved there was a likelihood of a nuclear exchange. Nor has Bush wandered
ho live in poverty a way out, funding
through the darkened White House as Lyndon Johnson used to do, as much con-
care for the 37 million Americans
fused by his own experts as by his enemies in Vietnam. Richard Nixon sometimes
ave no health insurance, preserving
sought solitude and brooded for hours over decisions on using American power.
ter, the air and the land for the next
Bush sought out friends and Chinese food.
tion-all demand attention, and all
It may be that Bush went through all of the known tortures on the way to his deci-
love every bit as difficult as liberating
sion. But they must have been entirely internal. There is as yet no enemy or friend who
-Reported by Dan Goodgame
claims to have been witness when Bush was either uncertain or unclear. Some wimp.
Gorey/Washington
TIME, FEBRUARY 11, 1991
55
300
WAR AND PEACE
WAR AND PEACE
301
ceived who were but yesterday the masters of Germany
For with the fall of the ancient governments which
is at an end, its illicit ambitions engulfed in black disas-
rested like an incubus upon the peoples of the Central
ter. Who will now seek to revive it? The arbitrary
Empires has come political change not merely, but revo-
power of the military caste of Germany which once
lution; and revolution which seems as yet to assume no
could secretly and of its own single choice disturb the
final and ordered form but to run from one fluid change
peace of the world is discredited and destroyed. And
to another, until thoughtful men are forced to ask them-
more than that,-much more than that,-has been ac-
selves, With what Governments, and of what sort, are
complished. The great nations which associated them-
we about to deal in the making of the covenants of
selves to destroy it have now definitely united in the
peace? With what authority will they meet us, and
common purpose to set up such a peace as will satisfy
with what assurance that their authority will abide and
the longing of the whole world for disinterested justice,
sustain securely the international arrangements into
embodied in settlements which are based upon some-
which we are about to enter? There is here matter for
thing much better and much more lasting than the selfish
no small anxiety and misgiving. When peace is made,
competitive interests of powerful states. There is no
upon whose promises and engagements besides our own
longer conjecture as to the objects the victors have in
is it to rest?
mind. They have a mind in the matter, not only, but a
Let us be perfectly frank with ourselves and admit
heart also. Their avowed and concerted purpose is to
that these questions cannot be satisfactorily answered
satisfy and protect the weak as well as to accord their
now or at once. But the moral is not that there is little
just rights to the strong.
hope of an early answer that will suffice. It is only
The humane temper and intention of the victorious
that we must be patient and helpful and mindful above
Governments has already been manifested in a very
all of the great hope and confidence that lie at the heart
practical way. Their representatives in the Supreme
of what is taking place. Excesses accomplish nothing.
War Council at Versailles have by unanimous resolu-
tion assured the peoples of the Central Empires that
Unhappy Russia has furnished abundant recent proof of
everything that is possible in the circumstances will be
that. Disorder immediately defeats itself. If excesses
done to supply them with food and relieve the distress-
should occur, if disorder should for a time raise its head,
ing want that is in so many places threatening their very
a sober second thought will follow and a day of con-
lives; and steps are to be taken immediately to organize
structive action, if we help and do not hinder.
these efforts at relief in the same systematic manner
The present and all that it holds belongs to the
that they were organized in the case of Belgium. By
nations and the peoples who preserve their self-control
the use of the idle tonnage of the Central Empires it
and the orderly processes of their governments; the
ought presently to be possible to lift the fear of utter
future to those who prove themselves the true friends
misery from their oppressed populations and set their
of mankind. To conquer with arms is to make only a
minds and energies free for the great and hazardous
temporary conquest; to conquer the world by earning
tasks of political reconstruction which now face them on
its esteem is to make permanent conquest. I am con-
every hand. Hunger does not breed reform; it breeds
fident that the nations that have learned the discipline
madness and all the ugly distempers that make an
of freedom and that have settled with self-possession
ordered life impossible.
to its ordered practice are now about to make conquest
302
WAR AND PEACE
of the world by the sheer power of example and of
friendly helpfulness.
The peoples who have but just come out from under
THANKSGIVING FOR VICTORY
the yoke of arbitrary government and who are now
coming at last into their freedom will never find the
THANKSGIVING PROCLAMATION, ISSUED NOVEMBER 16,
treasures of liberty they are in search of if they look for
1918. FROM "UNITED STATES STATUTES AT
them by the light of the torch. They will find that
LARGE," VOL. 40, PT. 2, PP. 1888-1889.
every pathway that is stained with the blood of their
own brothers leads to the wilderness, not to the seat of
IT has long been our custom to turn in the autumn of
their hope. They are now face to face with their initial
the year in praise and thanksgiving to Almighty
test. We must hold the light steady until they find
God for His many blessings and mercies to us as a
themselves. And in the meantime, if it be possible, we
nation. This year we have special and moving cause
must establish a peace that will justly define their place
to be grateful and to rejoice. God has in His good pleas-
among the nations, remove all fear of their neighbors
ure given us peace. It has not come as a mere cessation
and of their former masters, and enable them to live in
of arms, a mere relief from the strain and tragedy of
security and contentment when they have set their own
war. It has come as a great triumph of right. Com-
affairs in order. I, for one, do not doubt their purpose
plete victory has brought us, not peace alone, but the
or their capacity. There are some happy signs that they
confident promise of a new day as well in which justice
know and will choose the way of self-control and peace-
shall replace force and jealous intrigue among the na-
ful accommodation. If they do, we shall put our aid at
tions. Our gallant armies have participated in a tri-
their disposal in every way that we can. If they do not,
umph which is not marred or stained by any purpose of
we must await with patience and sympathy the awaken-
selfish aggression. In a righteous cause they have won
ing and recovery that will assuredly come at last.
immortal glory and have nobly served their nation in
serving mankind. God has indeed been gracious. We
have cause for such rejoicing as revives and strengthens
in us all the best traditions of our national history. A
new day shines about us, in which our hearts take new
courage and look forward with open hope to new and
greater duties.
While we render thanks for these things, let us not
forget to seek the Divine guidance in the performance
of those duties, and Divine mercy and forgiveness for
all errors of act or purpose, and pray that in all that we
do we shall strengthen the ties of friendship and mutual
respect upon which we must assist to build the new
structure of peace and good will among the nations.
Wherefore, I, Woodrow Wilson, President of the
United States of America, do hereby designate Thurs-
303
A Great American Screw-Up
The U.S. and Iraq, 1980-1990
_Paul A. Gigot
"Rarely has a government been more expect-
patrick fought to have the word removed, and
ant. We just expected wrong."
it finally was. But, she and other officials
-Thomas Schelling, from the foreword to
recall, everyone in the Cabinet and President
Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision, by
Reagan himself wanted to condemn the "pre-
Roberta Wohlstetter
emptive violence" of the Israeli attack. No
one at a senior level thought that Iraq's
O
N JUNE 19, 1981, Israeli Prime
potential nuclear capability represented the
Minister Menachem Begin ad-
greater threat to American interests.
dressed some 5,000 Holocaust
The U.S. response to the Osirak bomb-
survivors at the Wailing Wall in Jerusalem.
ing is the symbolic beginning of a decade of
Twelve days earlier Israeli warplanes had
American misjudgment. The climax was
undertaken a spectacularly successful bomb-
Iraq's invasion of Kuwait on August 2, 1990,
ing of Iraq's nuclear reactor, Osirak, named
an invasion that caught nearly everyone in
after Osiris, the Egyptian god of the dead.
the U.S. government by surprise. How could
"What's the difference if it's radiation and not
our experts have been SO wrong? A complete
Zyklon B gas?" Begin justified the bombing
answer must await the first-hand testimony
to the crowd, according to witness Allan
of officials who made the decisions and, espe-
Gerson. "It's still aimed at our children and
cially, the unveiling of the historical record.
ourselves."
But from numerous interviews and the avail-
On the same day at the United Nations,
able public record, it is possible to make a few
U.S. Ambassador Jeane Kirkpatrick was pre-
judgments about a foreign-policy tragedy
paring to cast a vote on the Osirak bombing.
that rivals Dean Acheson's failure to include
She would vote to condemn Israel, not Iraq,
Korea in the U.S. "containment" perimeter
for a "clear violation of the United Nations
in 1950.
Charter and the norms of international con-
In her classic book on Pearl Harbor,
duct." The Security Council vote was 15-0,
Roberta Wohlstetter writes about the diffi-
without abstentions.
culty of selecting genuine policy "signals"
Within the U.S. government, the only
from a world of "noise." Once any signals are
debate was whether it should work to strike
found, they must then be assessed to see if
the word "aggression" from the United Na-
they should change the prevailing policy "hy-
tion's condemnation. Ambassador Kirk-
pothesis." Regarding Iraq, policy-makers all
claim to have heard the aggressive signals
Paul A. Gigot writes the "Potomac Watch" col-
from Saddam Hussein. "There were no illu-
umn for the Wall Street Journal.
sions about Saddam," says Richard Murphy,
The National Interest-Winter 1990/91
3
the Reagan administration's assistant secre-
1967. The rise of Ayatollah Khomeini and
19
tary of state for Near Eastern and South
the taking of American hostages changed
ex
Asian affairs, in a typical comment. And
everything.
ace
certainly Saddam's signals were loud.
Suddenly, the United States was Iran's
What U.S. officials failed to do, how-
"Great Satan." Iran's new radical leaders
the
ever, was to use those signals to change their
vowed to spread their Shiite brand of Is-
19
hypothesis about Saddam's intentions. They
lamic fundamentalism throughout the Gulf.
tar
could not shake what even they themselves
Carter administration officials began to turn
shi
now call "the mindset" about Iraq. They let
their attention toward a new "pillar of sta-
gir
the accumulating evidence fit their favored
bility" in the Gulf, Saddam Hussein's Iraq.
suj
hypothesis, rather than change that hypoth-
Howard Teicher, a Defense Department
esis to fit the new evidence. They had con-
official at the time, who later joined the
sai
cluded that Saddam's growing threats were
Reagan National Security Council, wrote a
to
meant to coerce concessions from Kuwait,
classified fifty-page paper warning of the
Ar
not to invade, even up to the day before the
dangers of this tilt and predicting that Iraq
so
actual invasion.
would invade Iran. No one paid much at-
Ba
From this mistake flowed a second one:
tention. "The prevailing view was that per-
for
the failure to signal American intentions.
haps we could encourage moderation, and
so
U.S. officials thought that conciliation, rather
work with Iraq," Teicher recalls. By April
So
than a new policy of containment, had a
1980, National Security Adviser Zbigniew
W
better chance of persuading Saddam not to
Brzezinski could assert that, "We see no
sh
invade. So when they did send messages
fundamental incompatibility of interests be-
qu
warning Saddam, the messages were mixed
tween the U.S. and Iraq."
the
in a way that Saddam could plausibly inter-
The onset of the Reagan administration
pret as appeasement. Perhaps U.S. officials
accelerated this trend. Even when Iraq in-
ing
are right to say that nothing they could have
vaded Iran, the overriding U.S. view was
ch
said or done would have stopped Saddam
that Iran was stronger and would be by far
de
from invading; no one can know. But what is
the greater threat if it emerged from the war
"A
indisputable is that U.S. policy offered no
dominant in the region. Publicly, the U.S.
ab
deterrent to his invasion.
remained neutral in the war, but behind the
ha
Perhaps most troubling, the failures were
scenes it tilted sharply toward Iraq. "There
su
systemic. There are few heroes in this drama,
was a snowballing effect," says Teicher.
Re
and none with enough rank to have been able
"There was more and more stuff we were
we
to begin a reconsideration of policy. Cer-
doing with the Iraqis."
th
tainly no one ranking in the Bush administra-
ca
tion is bathed in glory. No senior official
T
HE UNITED States, in effect,
wa
played the skeptic that George Ball did
became Iraq's silent ally., In
toward Vietnam policy under LBJ. In the
1982, the U.S. took Iraq off its list of
T
weeks since the invasion, Congress has tried
nations promoting terrorism. A year later it
th
to take credit for having more prescience than
launched Operation Staunch, an attempt to
be
the Bush administration, but this is revision-
persuade other nations to stop selling arms
in
ism. Congress shares responsibility.
to Iran. No similar effort was made toward
re
The decade of miscalculation has its roots
Iraq, which became a favorite arms cus-
igi
in the Iranian Revolution of 1979. For two
tomer of France and the Soviet Union,
ity
decades before the fall of the Shah, the
among other nations. We began to share
TI
United States had viewed Iran as its strategic
intelligence information with Iraq and, by
bulwark in the Persian Gulf. U.S. relations
1984, the U.S. and Iraq had resumed full
ab
with Iraq, by contrast, had been virtually
diplomatic relations. This decision un-
th
non-existent since normal ties were cut in
leashed official credit guarantees that, by
in
4
The National Interest-Winter 1990/91
nd
1990, had amounted to a U.S. taxpayer
basis for President Reagan's failed opening
exposure in Iraq in the billions of dollars,
and sale of arms to Iran. Congressional inves-
according to Lally Weymouth.
tigators scorned any attempt to deal with Iran
The final, and perhaps decisive, tilt was
as futile, even absurd, but they never ques-
the U.S. decision to reflag Kuwaiti tankers in
tioned the ongoing assistance to Iraq. Peter
1987. Though Iraq had started the so-called
Galbraith, a Senate Foreign Relations and
tanker war, Iran had escalated it to include
Iran-contra Committee aide, says the Iraqis
shipping from Iraq's Arab allies. The reflag-
gave him extraordinary access to Iraqi Kur-
ging made it difficult for Iran to attack Iraq's
distan in 1987 in large part because "the Iraqi
supply lines through Kuwait.
Ambassador thought we were doing the
Throughout this period, it should be
Lord's work."
the
said, Iraq did show a more moderate face
But anyone even remotely associated
a
toward the West. It became less hostile to the
with the opening to Iran was forced out of
he
Arab-Israeli peace process. Saddam expelled
government. Teicher, for one, was purged
some (but not all) leading terrorists from
from the NSC. The consequences would echo
Baghdad. Iraq's ambassador to Washington
through the events of 1990. "No one who saw
for most of the 1980s, Nizar Hamdoon, had a
what happened to us was going to come near
soothing, conniving charm similar to that of
engaging with Iran at any level," says Tei-
South Korea's Tongsun Park in the 1970s.
cher. Congress's Iran-contra vendetta must
When an Iraqi missile hit an American war-
bear some of the responsibility for creating an
ship in the Gulf, the USS Stark, Saddam
environment in which dissenters on the Gulf
quickly apologized and paid $27 million to
could not be heard.
the families of the thirty-seven victims.
Iran's surprising decision to end the war,
Other Arabs made a point of underscor-
in August 1988, offered a new chance for the
ing the "change" in Saddam's behavior. Tei-
United States to reassess its Gulf policy.
cher recalls a meeting with Egyptian Presi-
Instead, even as the strategic circumstances
dent Hosni Mubarak in April 1982:
changed, "the mindset" continued.
"Mubarak gave me a fifteen-minute lecture
In late August, ethnic Kurds began
about how Iraq had changed. He said, 'You
streaming over the Iraqi border into Turkey.
he
have to do everything you can to make Iraq
Their testimony and physical condition-
survive the war. You have to tell President
discolored and burned skin, blurred vision,
Reagan.' He kept shaking my hand and
shortness of breath-provided evidence that
wouldn't let go." The combined impact of
Iraq had used chemical weapons against its
this effort was that a large portion of Ameri-
own population. The Reagan administra-
ca's policy elite concluded that Saddam really
tion-and the rest of the West-reacted with
was "someone we could work with."
what can politely be called restraint. The
In
There were a few dissenters, of course.
State Department publicly condemned the
of
Teicher and Graham Fuller, a CIA analyst at
attack, but privately also sent a message of
it
the time, collaborated on a memo in 1985 that
conciliation to Iraq. As one State official told
to
became notorious during the Iran-contra hear-
the New York Times on September 8, 1988:
ings two years later. They argued that Iran
"The approach we want to take is that, 'We
remained a strategic prize that should not be
want to have a good relationship with you,
ignored, and that Saddam's domestic barbar-
but that this sort of thing makes it very
ity meant his "change" might be cosmetic.
difficult.'
Their views were debated and rejected.
The mixed message continued as a battle
But that rejection, perhaps understand-
raged in Congress over U.S. sanctions against
able at the time, took on a tragic cast during
Iraq. Secretary of State George Shultz pri-
the Iran-contra hearings. Their memo was
vately complained to Iraq's foreign minister
interpreted by Congress as the intellectual
and received a promise that Iraq would not
A Great American Screw-Up
5
use gas again and would attend an arms-
could no longer perform its historic "balanc-
control conference the next January. "It was
ing" role against Iraq. The threat of promot-
in
enough to persuade us that working on it
ing Shiite fundamentalism was gone. The
privately was enough to be productive," says
new Gulf threat came from the potential for
stor
Murphy, State's Middle East point man at
Iraqi regional dominance. According to a
lilz
the time. "And sanctions would not be pro-
source familiar with it, the memo argued
"T
ductive."
that, "The logic of power is that a regional
Ho
After the chemical attacks, the Senate
hegemon would want any external power out
it,
passed tough unilateral sanctions, 87-0. The
of the region." That meant it was only a
tha
Reagan administration responded with fero-
matter of time before Saddam would agitate
per
cious lobbying that first watered the sanc-
against any American presence. So the
the
tions down, then finally killed them. The
United States should make overtures to Iran,
det
administration never offered a compromise
ending both the trade embargo and Opera-
Th
for even modest sanctions. American busi-
tion Staunch, and consider a "containment"
and
nesses with sales to Iraq-rice millers, chem-
strategy against Iraq.
"bu
ical companies, and others-also lobbied fu-
Khalilzad's memo received wide internal
shit
riously against sanctions. In the end, House
circulation and was debated at the highest
Pre
Foreign Relations Committee Chairman
levels. But as one official familiar with the
dire
Dante Fascell asked that sanctions be
period observes, "That was pissing into the
stripped from the tax bill to which they had
wind in Washington, and still is." Eventu-
earlier been attached. Galbraith says he re-
ally, the policy review suffered the fate of
ceived a 5 a.m. call on the last day of the
many such efforts: it was leaked to the press.
fust
session informing him that the sanctions had
A story in the New York Times described the
thre
been pulled in the dead of night.
effort as an attempt "by middle-level officials
esc
It is impossible to know if U.S. sanctions
to re-evaluate American policy toward Iran."
Ara
in 1988, or later in 1990, would have changed
A November election loomed, and the Rea-
eve
Saddam's behavior. But it is possible to spec-
gan administration was coming to an end.
Zal
ulate on the lesson Saddam learned about
The review was killed.
am
Western resolve after his chemical attacks.
"He learned that his actions would be met
IN
1989, the incoming Bush adminis-
blis
solely with rhetorical opposition," says Gal-
tration had another chance to recon-
Cou
braith. Saddam had committed a horrendous
sider Gulf policy. It did conduct a long
Jord
act-the first use of gas since Hitler-yet his
"strategic review," but its conclusions were
Sov
only cost was to have one of his senior aides
close to those of the Reagan team.
gov
politely dressed down by George Shultz.
This is not surprising, given that many of
Stat
Meanwhile, inside the State Depart-
the new Bush appointees had also helped
would
ment, a prominent member of the policy
make earlier Mideast policy. Richard Haass,
way
planning staff was urging a wholesale change
the new Middle East point man at the NSC;
regi
in Gulf policy. Zalmay Khalilzad, a Colum-
had worked in the Defense Department when
in B
bia University professor hired to offer advice
the Carter administration began to consider
wea
on Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf, wrote
overtures to Iraq. Dennis Ross, now head of
sign
the most prescient piece of analysis produced
State's policy planning shop, had worked in
he
about the Gulf in the U.S. government. He
the late Reagan NSC before joining the Bush
"By
concluded that Iraq had replaced Iran as the
presidential campaign. His new deputy, Bill
Isra
foremost threat to American interests in the
Burns, had worked with him at the NSC. And
region.
Richard Fairbanks, who headed the Bush
tear
The Khalilzad logic was geopolitical:
campaign's Middle East policy team, had also
pol
Iran had emerged from the war far weaker
worked on Middle East issues in the Reagan
De
than anyone had thought, so weak that it
years. By then out of government, Fairbanks
had
6.
The National Interest-Winter 1990/91
oric "balanc-
was until recently also Iraq's registered agent
policy, including sanctions. Ross was "sym-
of promot-
in Washington.
pathetic," say sources, but never really fo-
gone. The
Most of these officials knew and under-
cused on the issue. The April remarks finally
potential for
stood the strategic arguments made by Kha-
got his attention. Ross and John Kelly, the
ording to a
lilzad. But they expressly rejected them.
assistant secretary for Near Eastern affairs,
emo argued
"The mindset" persisted. As one White
have told reporters they went to Secretary of
a
House official who developed the policy put
State James Baker and urged a new policy of
1 out
limited sanctions against Iraq. Baker is said to
buld
ntainment" power regional So Opera- only agitate
it, after the Iran-Iraq War "there was a sense
was a
that the Gulf had come out of a difficult
have agreed.
period and was getting better." Both sides in
But the policy review died aborning.
e. the
the war were thought to be exhausted. "The
Baker turned the effort over to Robert Kim-
res to Iran,
detente analogy" prevailed, says this source.
mitt, State's undersecretary for political af-
and
The U.S. might not like everything Iraq did,
fairs, who made a case to the interagency
and might detest its human rights record,
"deputies committee," a set of officials just
"but if we could have a more normal relation-
below the Cabinet level. Accounts differ on
de internal
ship with Iraq, why not try?" In mid-1989,
what happened next. By State's account, its
he highest
President Bush signed a national security
initiative died after it met resistance from the
with the
directive implementing detente toward Iraq.
Commerce Department and the NSC staff,
g into the
including NSC adviser Brent Scowcroft.
" Eventu-
LIKE THE SOVIETS in the 1970s,
Other sources, the majority by far, insist
he fate of
however, Saddam Hussein re-
that State never really made much of an
the press.
fused to cooperate. Beginning in late 1989
effort. "My impression was they were wor-
cribed the
through July of 1990, he undertook a series of
ried more about public positioning than
el officials
escalating threats and actions toward his
about the policy," says one official. Another
ard Iran."
Arab neighbors and the United States that
claims, "I don't know what was said to the
the Rea-
everyone agrees signaled hostile intentions.
secretary, but State did not represent a policy
an end.
Zalmay Khalilzad's predictions about Sadd-
position that was at variance with anyone
am's regional ambitions were coming true.
else's." The meeting reached a consensus not
On February 24, 1990, Saddam gave a
to renew commodity loan credits to Iraq, but
adminis-
blistering speech to the Arab Cooperation
to attribute this decision to a scandal involv-
to recon-
Council, a regional club meeting in Amman,
ing a bank. "We tried to de-politicize the
it a long
Jordan. Saddam warned that with declining
decision," says one of the deputies, in order
ons were
Soviet power, "the Arab Gulf region will be
not to risk antagonizing Saddam. (On April
governed by the wishes of the United
13, the Agriculture Department suspended
many of
States." He implied that no "good" Arabs
farm credits, citing not the works of Saddam,
0 helped
would want this and so they should look for
but financial irregularities.) The policy re-
d Haass,
ways to undermine U.S. influence in the
view, such as it was, had ended.
the NSC,
region. In March, Iraqi agents were arrested
The review's failure is partly explained
ent when
in Britain for smuggling parts to build nuclear
by the way national-security advice is trans-
consider
weapons. Then on April 2, Saddam sent a
mitted to President Bush. The administration
head of
signal even the deaf could hear. He declared
really has two national-security policy sys-
orked in
he had binary chemical weapons and that,
tems. The first, and least important, is the
he Bush
"By God, we will make the fire eat up half of
formal interagency process, led by the NSC.
uty, Bill
Israel, if it tries to do anything against Iraq."
But this NSC staff is one of the least powerful
SC. And
The April speech inspired the Bush
in years, and its leader, Scowcroft, is a
e Bush
team's only serious reconsideration of its Iraq
cautious man who is more manager than
had also
policy. As early as January, junior aides to
strategic thinker. The other, much less for-
Reagan
Dennis Ross in State's policy planning office
mal, system is dominated by George Bush's
irbanks
had been urging a change to a "containment"
close friend, James Baker, his small team of
A Great American Screw-Up
7
uncover
aides, and whatever allies they seek to in-
impression of you." Dole added that Presi-
Williar
clude. This second system is the route by
dent Bush would probably veto sanctions
TI
which virtually every major national-security
against Iraq and that, "We in Congress also
could
policy change has been made during the Bush
try to exert our utmost efforts in this direc-
"It is
years-for example, the decisions to engage
tion." Howard Metzenbaum, the Ohio Dem-
Mikhail Gorbachev and to negotiate with
ocrat, chimed in that, "After listening to you
question
Cambodia.
for about an hour, I realized you are a strong
Iraq I
domes
But this system's strength is also its
and an intelligent man, and that you want
weakness: it relies on a small nucleus of
peace." A month later, Metzenbaum opposed
govern
back t
people, literally a handful of aides. If an issue
anti-Iraq sanctions in the Senate (but still
falls outside their radar screen, it is probably
later supported them).
ment
being run on autopilot by the permanent
When Saddam attacked the Western
left it
added
bureaucracy. This is by all accounts what
press for distortions, Wyoming Republican
ferred
happened toward Iraq. Ross is Baker's Mid-
Alan Simpson more or less agreed: "I believe
dle East expert, but he is also his main adviser
your problem is with the Western media, not
retary
on Fel
on Soviet policy. Throughout 1990, Ross was
with the U.S. government, because you are
relatio
preoccupied with Germany, Soviet politics,
isolated from the media and the press. The
and arms control, among other issues. For
dence
press is spoiled and conceited. All the jour-
Ba
most of the Bush administration, Ross's main
nalists consider themselves brilliant political
VOA
Middle East worry was the Arab-Israeli
scientists. They do not want to see anything
staff n
peace process. The Gulf was left to Kelly and
succeeding or achieving its objectives. My
his Near East bureau, which would never
Six we
advice is that you allow those bastards to
the fiv
change policy without guidance from the top.
come here and see for themselves." Simpson
Since that guidance never came with any
Dole
said this only a month after Saddam had
force, Kelly never sent Saddam Hussein a
was no
executed a British journalist accused of being
different message.
a spy.
govern
Indeed, what is remarkable about the
VOA.
various messages the U.S. sent to Saddam in
writer
T
HE EPISODE that may best sym-
1990 is how consistent they were. They
bolize the confused messages to
official
never threatened to break relations; they were
Saddam was State's quashing of honest com-
A
more carrot than stick. They certainly never
mentary by the United States Information
to see
drew a line in the sand.
Agency. On February 15, 1990, a Voice of
were a
State's spokeswoman quickly denounced
America editorial, entitled "No More Secret
the K
Saddam's April speech as "inflammatory,
Police," hailed popular revolts against "dicta-
editor
outrageous, and irresponsible." But ten days
torial rule," especially in Ceaucescu's Roma-
read:
later, five senators, led by Kansas Republican
nia. It included the following (and only)
spokes
Bob Dole, met Saddam in the Iraqi city of
reference to Iraq: "The secret police are still
strong
Mosul. They presented a letter expressing
widely present in countries like China, North
vidual
"very deep concerns" about his chemical and
Korea, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Cuba and
in the
biological weapons. The letter said these
Albania."
take vi
were "a major barrier to improved relations,"
Saddam must have reacted furiously, be-
intere
but said nothing about current relations. And
cause the response at State was to mollify
killed
according to a transcript of their meeting
him. "Our guess is that the President himself
Huss
released by the Iraqis (and not disputed, save
heard it on February 15," America's ambas-
N
for minor details, by Dole's office), the sena-
sador to Baghdad, April Glaspie, cabled to
sough
tors were less than profiles in indignation.
Washington. She had been called to see Iraq's
Vice
At the meeting, Dole referred to "[Penn-
deputy foreign minister, who protested a
ton I1
sylvania Senator Arlen] Specter, whom you
"flagrant interference in the internal affairs of
to W
met and who went away with a very positive
Iraq," according to the cable, which was
speed
8
The National Interest-Winter 1990/91
that
Presi-
uncovered by New York Times columnist
April 2 "threats." Comments on the draft
William Safire.
from the NSC asked that this be changed to
sanctions
also
The U.S. responded with what Saddam
Saddam's "remarks." Another NSC comment:
ngress
this
could easily have read as a collective grovel.
"Emphasis on Iraq misplaced given U.S.
direc-
Ohio
Dem-
"It is absolutely not United States policy to
policy, other issues." The final draft included
question the legitimacy of the Government of
only a mild rebuke to Iraq for "reckless words
to
you
Iraq nor to interfere in any way in the
and actions."
a strong
domestic concerns of the Iraqi people and
The mixed messages continued up to the
you
want
opposed
government," Ambassador Glaspie wrote
August 2 invasion. In late May, Haass qui-
(but
still
back to the foreign ministry. "My govern-
etly visited Baghdad and had a sharp ex-
ment regrets that the wording of the editorial
change with the foreign minister and his
deputy. Haass "basically said, 'This relation-
Western
left it open to incorrect interpretation." She
added that the editorial could not have re-
ship is up to you,' according to a White
Republican
ferred to Saddam, because "as assistant sec-
House source. Haass said the administration
"I believe
media, not
retary Kelly told his Excellency the President
is fighting off sanctions in Congress, " 'but
on February 12, President Bush wants good
you [the Iraqis] are giving us no ammuni-
se
you
are
oress. The
relations with Iraq, relations built on confi-
tion.'
"
dence and trust.
Throughout this period, the Bush team
the jour-
Back in Washington, Kelly rebuked a
was also resisting anti-Iraq sanctions gaining
it political
VOA representative at a State Department
momentum in Congress. Douglas Waller has
anything
tives. My
staff meeting attended by Secretary Baker.
reported in the New Republic that Senator
Six weeks later, when Saddam complained to
Dole put a legislative "hold" on one sanctions
astards to
the five senators about the Western press,
bill right up to the day of the invasion.
Simpson
Dole replied: "There was one person who
Expressing the administration's view of sanc-
ddam had
was not authorized to say anything about the
tions attached to a farm bill, Indiana Repub-
d of being
government. He was a commentator for
lican Senator Richard Lugar said that, "Pas-
VOA
That person was fired." The VOA
sage of this legislation would badly undercut
writer had not been fired, though an embassy
any possibility we have of influencing Iraqi
best sym-
official told the senators he had been.
behavior in areas from the peace process to
essages to
After Saddam's complaints, State asked
human rights, terrorism to proliferation."
nest com-
to see all VOA editorials on Iraq before they
formation
Voice of
were aired. So on July 25, one week before
the Kuwait invasion, VOA submitted a draft
T
HE MOST FAMOUS exchange is
of course the July 25 meeting
ore Secret
editorial that would prove to be prophetic. It
between Ambassador Glaspie and Saddam in
ist "dicta-
read: "As a U.S. Defense Department
Baghdad. (The transcript was leaked by the
i's Roma-
nd only)
spokesman said this week, the U.S. remains
Iraqis, and its accuracy has not been chal-
e are still
strongly committed to supporting the indi-
lenged by State.) It can only be called amaz-
vidual and collective self-defense of its friends
ing. Saddam threatened and blustered, all
a, North
Cuba and
in the Persian Gulf.
The U.S. would
but declaring his intent to invade Kuwait.
take very seriously any threat that put U.S.
Ambassador Glaspie replied: "We have no
interests or friends at risk." Kelly's bureau
opinion on the Arab-Arab conflicts, like your
usly, be-
killed even that tepid warning to Saddam
border disagreement with Kuwait. I was in
mollify
t himself
Hussein.
the American Embassy in Kuwait during the
S ambas-
Nearly as telling is the way NSC staffers
late 1960s. The instruction we had during
cabled to
sought to tone down an April 30 speech by
this period was that we should express no
Vice President Dan Quayle to the Washing-
opinion on this issue and that the issue is not
see Iraq's
ton Institute for Near East Policy. According
associated with America."
tested a
affairs of
to White House sources who saw it, the
This conversation has been taken as the
ich was
speech draft included a reference to Saddam's
decisive, final signal to Saddam of U.S.
A Great American Screw-Up
9
weakness, and it may well have been. But it
was that he would not invade. Two days later
also wasn't far removed from the pattern of
Saddam's tanks rolled in.
U.S. policy set during the previous years,
In their own defense, administration of-
and especially the previous five months.
ficials point to the fact that Saddam's own
Glaspie may have been more fawning (U.S.
Arab neighbors reinforced U.S. policy. And
officials say she had no specific instructions
it is true that, again and again, Egyptian,
for the meeting since it was called on very
Jordanian, Saudi, and even Kuwaiti officials
A
short notice), but she was only one part of
urged the United States not to say or do
"the mindset."
anything that might provoke Saddam. Only a
Indeed, after Ambassador Glaspie's meet-
day before August 2, Jordan's King Hussein
ing, with Iraqi troops massed on the Kuwait
telephoned President Bush to assure him that
border, a cable was sent to Saddam under
no invasion was imminent. This Arab mind-
President Bush's signature. According to the
set, say U.S. officials, meant that a shift to
Middle East Policy Survey newsletter (which
containment would have required the U.S. to
first reported the story) and to sources familiar
go it alone.
with it, the cable gave a "firm" but general
But this is impossible to know for sure
message opposing the use of force. It offered
since the U.S. never tried to persuade the
no specific security guarantees toward Ku-
Arabs to change course. And it is disturbing
wait, and it held out the hope of better rela-
to think that U.S. officials rely so heavily on
Isr
tions. Still later, on July 31, John Kelly testi-
the judgment of Arab officials, whose inter-
lys
fied before Congress that "we have no defense
ests are so clearly different from our own. It
tw
treaty relationships with any of the [Gulf]
is, after all, mainly American men and
the
countries. We have historically avoided taking
women who are now defending Saudi Ara-
will
a position on border disputes or on internal
bia. Israel, moreover, was signaling for
be
OPEC deliberations, but we have certainly, as
months that the United States should shift
lik
have all administrations, resoundingly called
its policy toward containment. Moshe
pa
for the peaceful settlement of disputes and
Arens, the Israeli defense minister, made
gu
differences in the area." The BBC World Ser-
this plea in person to Secretary Cheney in a
rig
vice reported that Kelly had offered no secur-
Washington visit on July 19-20. But U.S.
19
ity guarantee for Kuwait. April Glaspie
officials gave greater weight to the Arab
clearly was not alone.
belief that no Arab leader would ever invade
sta
To the very end, U.S. officials expected
a brother nation.
W
that Saddam would not invade. By all ac-
Could a different policy have deterred
hi
counts, the intelligence community well doc-
Saddam? It is impossible to say. Administra-
be
umented the Iraqi build-up near Kuwait, but
tion officials are naturally defensive about
So
missed Saddam's intentions until August 1.
their decisions, and Secretary Baker has gone
to
A lone (and so far anonymous) analyst did
so far as to denounce as "shameful" the
St
predict the invasion, according to several
"20-20 hindsighting going on."
co
sources, but the intelligence "consensus" was
Perhaps he is right, but in a democracy,
ti
far more hedged. "The theory was that ev-
hindsight can also go by the name of account-
st
erything he was doing was to coerce" Ku-
ability. It is undeniable that U.S. policy
la
wait, says one ranking source. "He wanted
failed to give even the most basic signal that
th
the money, or maybe the two islands [in the
might have deterred Saddam. The policy
o
Persian Gulf], but not Kuwait. So what was
failed to understand the oldest truth of inter-
the problem?" One source recalls a meeting
national relations: That bullies who threaten
S
on July 31 with Secretary Cheney and senior
American interests cannot be appeased, they
Defense Department officials; the consensus
must be opposed.
10.
The National Interest-Winter 1990/91
Michael Mandelbaum
again
over
the
U.S.
THE BUSH FOREIGN POLICY
war
on
to
bring
had
Il
to
n 1989 the greatest geopolitical windfall in the history of
course
American foreign policy fell into George Bush's lap. In a mere
resident
six months the communist regimes of eastern Europe col-
but
the
lapsed, giving the West a sudden, sweeping and entirely
come:
unexpected victory in its great global conflict against the Soviet
allies,
Union. Between July and December of 1989 Poland, Hungary,
had
so
in
East Germany, Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria and Romania ousted
Con-
communist leaders. Their new governments each proclaimed
a commitment to democratic politics and market economics,
incture
his
and the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Europe began. All
and
this happened without the West firing a single shot.
for
The revolutions in eastern Europe ended the Cold War by
a
sweeping away the basic cause of the conflict between the two
sure
to
great global rivals: the Soviet European empire. They did so
to
by
on George Bush's watch, a term that seems quite appropriate.
As the revolutions occurred, he and his associates were more
more
same
spectators, than participants-a bit confused, generally ap-
best
proving, but above all passive. The president kept the United
astern
States in the background. In response to the most important
The
international events of the second half of the twentieth cen-
tury, the White House offered no soaring rhetoric, no grand
the
gestures, no bold new programs. This approach served Amer-
ica's interests well. Events were moving in a favorable direc-
of
tion; staying in the background, taking care not to insert the
United States into the middle of things, was the proper course
cratic
of action. The qualities most characteristic of the Bush
in
presidency-caution, modest public pronouncements and a
fondness for private communications-were admirably suited
the
to the moment.
the
The end of communism in Europe need not have proceeded
so smoothly. There were pitfalls and blind alleys, alternative
policies that had serious advocates. The Bush administration
Michael Mandelbaum is the Christian Herter Professor of American
Foreign Policy at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International
Studies of The Johns Hopkins University, and the director of the project
on East-West relations at the Council on Foreign Relations.
6 FOREIGN AFFAIRS
THE BUSH FOREIGN POLICY 7
steered clear of them all. In so doing, it steered the United
aware of the weakness of their country's international position.
States into a new world.
They were preoccupied with internal affairs, especially dete-
But with the end of the Cold War the familiar guideposts of
riorating economic conditions and the rising rebelliousness of
American foreign policy have disappeared. The revolutions in
the non-Russians. Whether or not they recognized that they
eastern Europe, taken cumulatively, were a revolution in
could end their conflict with the West only by relinquishing
international politics, and they have had a revolutionary
eastern Europe, they were plainly convinced that they could
impact on America's relations with the rest of the world. There
give up the empire that Stalin had acquired without putting
will be greater discontinuity in foreign policy between the first
Soviet security in mortal jeopardy.
and second halves of the Bush presidency than between any
That conviction might have wavered had the West ostenta-
two administrations in the postwar period.
tiously celebrated the retreat of Soviet power. By what it
The post-Cold War international agenda is beginning to
refrained from doing publicly, as much as by whatever private
take shape. It is not likely to be dominated by military
messages it may have conveyed to Moscow, the Bush admin-
confrontations between great nuclear powers, or even by crises
istration avoided embarrassing, threatening or otherwise pro-
like the one in the Persian Gulf. Instead, economic issues will
voking the Soviets. This was the most important contribution
predominate, particularly as formerly communist Europe and
to the events of 1989 that the United States was in a position to
countries in other regions move toward market institutions
and practices. For these challenges President Bush's style of
make. The administration might also have followed the opposite
leadership seems less appropriate. The attributes he lacks—
the capacity to define clearly American interests abroad and
policy. It could have made common cause with the Soviet
Union to try to control the process of change in eastern
the policies necessary to pursue them, a mastery of the
Europe. Secretary of State James A. Baker was reported in
intricacies of economic affairs, and a determination to redress
March 1989 to be favorably disposed to discussing that subject
the chronic imbalances of the American economy-may well
with Moscow.¹ The idea was far from absurd. When commu-
be the qualities required for effective leadership in the post-
Cold War era.
nist governments in eastern Europe were challenged in the
past, the Soviet Union intervened to keep them in power,
II
with the West. There was every reason in 1989 to try to avoid
bringing bloodshed and repression and poisoning relations
The end of the Cold War took place in two stages. In the last
half of 1989, the communist governments of eastern Europe
a similar sequence of events.
The Bush administration acted wisely in not making the
fell; in the first half of 1990, the fate of Germany was decided.
In both stages, plausible alternatives existed to the approaches
political future of eastern Europe the subject of Soviet-
adopted by the Bush administration; at each stage, the admin-
American negotiations. Such negotiations would have severely
istration chose the proper policy.
damaged relations with the Europeans themselves, both east
The president could have done what many wanted him to
and west, who objected to what they termed a "second Yalta"-
do: exult in the West's triumph. He could have celebrated
the two great powers deciding Europe's fate without European
victory more publicly, more frequently and more emphati-
The Soviet Union did not intervene. The Bush administration
participation. Negotiations, as it turned out, were unnecessary.
cally. Doing so, however, would have jeopardized the neces-
sary condition for the revolutions of 1989: Moscow's willing-
correctly calculated that the interest of the United States lay in
ness to tolerate them.
allowing the authentic, peaceful, democratic revolutions to run
There was no doubt more than one reason that the Soviet
their course. Washington encouraged this process by reassur-
leaders decided not to stop the process of political change in
ing Moscow that the course of events did not jeopardize
eastern Europe in 1989, as their predecessors had done in
legitimate Soviet interests. This middle course with the Soviet
Hungary in 1956, in Czechoslovakia in 1968 and, indirectly, in
Poland in 1981. Mikhail Gorbachev and his colleagues were
1 Thomas Friedman, The New York Times, March 28, 1989.
8 FOREIGN AFFAIRS
THE BUSH FOREIGN POLICY 9
Union, between collaboration and confrontation, was im-
portant and underappreciated achievement of American an for-
played in the postwar period-in NATO, in the European
has eign policy. If one of the tests of each presidency after 1945
Community and in other international organizations.
been the capacity to manage crises, the president deserves
The Bush administration declined to place obstacles in the
high be marks for his policies during the six eventful months that
path of German unity. Without American support no other
may No seen in retrospect as the final crisis of the Cold War.
country, or combination of countries, could have hoped to
sooner had the last east European revolution been
block German unification. But Washington was no more
nuclear completed-in Romania-than Europe and the two
prescient than any other capital about the pace of events in
The powers had to confront the issue of German unity. great
Germany. It was motivated in part by a short-term concern
march toward the merger of the two Germanys-or,
that a fight over unification between West Germany and its
by the West-was not initially intended by any
rather, toward the collapse of East Germany and its takeover
allies would bring to power Germany's Social Democrats, who
might adopt a dangerously neutralist foreign policy. Support
tive including Bonn. It was the product of the spontaneous government, initia-
for Chancellor Helmut Kohl was nonetheless consistent with
the of hundreds of thousands of East Germans. By to
the proper long-term American approach to the German
West in large numbers, even after the opening moving of the
Question: that is, support for the right of Germans to decide
inner-German border, they voted with their feet against the
their own fate, combined with efforts to create conditions in
end continued existence of a separate state. They also voted for the
which the German decision, especially if in favor of unity,
the first of East Germany in March 1990 in a more familiar
would not make others, or Germans themselves, feel insecure.
free elections ever held in the G.D.R. yielded way: a
The key to maintaining a secure Europe was to keep the
resounding majority in favor of rapid unification.
newly united Germany firmly anchored in an American-led
it had had enjoyed and the havoc that Germany had wrought when
In light of the four decades of peace that a divided Europe
security community. The Bush administration waged a suc-
cessful diplomatic campaign on this issue within the frame-
been powerful and independent, it was hardly
work of the "two plus four" negotiations. These talks involved
Prime ing that German unity was not universally welcomed. surpris- British
the two Germanys plus Britain, France, the Soviet Union and
the United States-the four powers whose victory in World
François the Mitterrand each indicated that they were not happy
Minister Margaret Thatcher and French President
War II gave them special prerogatives in Germany. In the first
half of 1990 the administration used this forum to obtain
at prospect. Commentators in the United States
the wholeheartedly enthusiastic either, and for the same were not
Soviet acquiescence on Germany's continuing membership in
Germans could not be trusted; or, even if they could reasons:
NATO.
The final details of the terms of German unity were worked
for discarding the security arrangements that had served well be,
out without the United States, Britain or France, in the
shared so long was unacceptably risky. Had Washington so also
summer of 1990 in a meeting between Chancellor Kohl and
and and acted on these reservations, it could have slowed
President Gorbachev at the Soviet leader's home in Stavropol.
States-as well as Britain and France-would have in effect
perhaps even blocked German unification. The United
The meeting raised the specter of Soviet-German collusion
declared that, while every other nation in Europe, and all
against the interests of the rest of Europe. Without reconcili-
ation between Germany and Russia, however, there could be
peoples elsewhere, were entitled to choose their own political
no end to the Cold War. Peace in Europe was impossible
arrangements, the Germans were not. Such a declaration
without an accommodation between its two largest powers. For
treatment that Hitler exploited in the 1930s in order to win
would have stirred the same kind of resentment at unequal
most of the hundred years between the fall from power in
1890 of Bismarck, the original architect of German unity, and
have power and launch his ruinous policies. Although it would
the 1990 unification of the two German states, Germany and
pushed Europe into war, it would have discredited in not the
Russia had defined their interests in Europe in ways unaccept-
eyes of Germans the important roles the Federal Republic
able to each other. This ongoing Russo-German antagonism
caused much of the tension, rivalry and war on the continent
10 FOREIGN AFFAIRS
THE BUSH FOREIGN POLICY 11
in that period. It now may be hoped that the events of 1990
In part because of this harmony, it proved possible to assemble
have brought that era to an end.
an international coalition of unprecedented breadth to oppose
The Soviet-German rapprochement is not dangerous to
Saddam Hussein.
others, provided it takes place within a European security
Soviet-American cooperation also made possible a promi-
framework that includes a continuing American presence. It is
role in the gulf crisis for the United Nations, whose its
just such a framework that the Bush administration was
nent machinery, especially the Security Council, had for most its of
maintaining. instrumental in designing, and is apparently committed to
history been paralyzed by the great schism between two
strongest members.
Most important of all, the end of the Cold War and the al-
III
newfound solidarity between Washington and Moscow
Just as America, the Soviet Union and the European nations
lowed the United States to undertake military operations on a
were beginning the task of constructing a new post-Cold War
large larger conflict with the Soviet Union and uncontrolled advan-
scale in the Middle East, without the fear of triggering escala- a
Europe, Saddam Hussein interrupted them. His invasion,
occupation and declared annexation of Kuwait-and the
tion to World War III. This was an enormous military
American response-dominated U.S. foreign policy in the
tage for the United States.
latter half of George Bush's second year as president.
The gulf crisis, however, does not offer a reliable guide the to
President Bush dispatched to the Middle East the largest
the post-Cold War world. The United States sent forces to that
expeditionary force since the Vietnam War and organized an
Middle East for two reasons: to support the principle and
impressively wide coalition against Iraq. The American inter-
powers must not swallow up weaker neighbors; from
vention in the gulf, whatever its outcome, will exert a major
stronger to prevent a large fraction of the world's oil reserves
influence on future American policy in the region. It may also
coming under the control of a brutal, aggressive and unpre- is
prove to be the decisive event of George Bush's presidency.
dictable tyrant. The principle of sovereign independence the
Success could assure his reelection and strengthen his hand at
important. Where it is challenged in the years ahead
home and abroad; failure could have the opposite effects.
United States will surely support beleaguered small states—
Even a limited victory for Saddam Hussein would increase the
but not by sending 400,000 troops to liberate them. Oil Gulf is a
power of forces opposed to the United States and its friends,
uniquely valuable resource, one that makes the Persian
and have adverse and perhaps disastrous consequences for the
the only part of the Third World where Western interests are
entire Middle East.
sizable enough to justify a large war.
The gulf crisis is not, however, a preview of international
In the minds of American policymakers, the various con-
politics beyond the Cold War. It is an important development,
flicts of the Cold War were all connected. The Greek civil war,
to be sure, that cannot help but influence American foreign
the Korean War, the Vietnam War and others were seen as
policy in years to come. But it is not the seminal event from
of a global struggle against communism. Each was conse- for its
which America's new international role will emerge.
quential part not only for what was directly at stake, but The
The Iraqi invasion demonstrated that some features of the
effect on the Western position in other parts of the world.
Cold War persist, even in the absence of the Soviet-American
confrontation with Iraq, by contrast, is not connected to
rivalry. There are still dangerous people abroad who have the
anything beyond the Middle East. Important as the Middle
power to jeopardize Western interests. It also demonstrated
East is to the United States and the rest of the West, it does not
that when those interests must be defended by force the
provide the basis for a global foreign policy, as did the conflict
meetion
principal responsibility continues to rest with the West's lead-
with the Soviet Union.
ing military power, the United States. The gulf crisis also
During the Cold War, wars and conflicts outside Europe their
illustrates the changes that the end of the Cold War has
derived their importance for the United States from
produced in international politics. The United States and the
connection to the Soviet Union. With the end of the Cold War,
Soviet Union find themselves on the same side of the conflict.
they will be far less consequential for American foreign policy.
12 FOREIGN AFFAIRS
THE BUSH FOREIGN POLICY 13
The Persian Gulf excepted, the United States is considerably
geopolitical conditions. But however benign its motives, a
less likely to dispatch forces abroad in the post-Cold War era.
Germany armed with nuclear weapons would create uncer-
In this sense the gulf crisis belongs to the past, not the future,
tainty, alarm and instability in Europe. Perpetuating the
of American foreign policy.
American commitment to western Europe is a hedge against
There is still a military role for the United States to play, but
this undesirable and potentially dangerous sequence of events.
the regions where American forces will remain useful are
This is why the Bush administration's determination to main-
those where they were concentrated during the conflict with
tain the basic structure of NATO is well advised.
the Soviet Union: Europe and East Asia. Their mission,
Such a commitment would be designed not so much to deter
however, will be different from those they have become
an immediate threat from the Soviet Union as to reassure all of
accustomed to carrying out.
Europe-including Germany and the Soviet Union-that it
need not fear a power vacuum. Such a vacuum might compel
IV
European nations to recalculate their military requirements,
Deterrence of the Soviet Union has ceased to be the all-
perhaps in ways others would consider as threatening.2
consuming international concern of the United States. Moscow
In East Asia, as in Europe, the Soviet threat to America's
is withdrawing its troops from Europe, and drawing down its
principal ally, Japan, has diminished considerably. Yet the
forces in East Asia as well. Equally important, the sources of an
American military presence there remains useful for the same
expansive Soviet foreign policy-the commitment to the prin-
reason. If the United States were to withdraw completely from
ciples of Marxism-Leninism and the determination to spread
the region, Japan, like Germany, might feel the need to adopt
them abroad-have all but disappeared.
a more independent military role, including the acquisition of
The end of the Cold War, however, does not bring an end to
a nuclear arsenal. A nuclear-armed Japan would likewise
the system of relations among sovereign states in which threats
alarm neighboring countries. In the post-Cold War era, Amer-
can arise. The difference is that, henceforth, the dangers to
ican military forces in East Asia, as in Europe, can serve as a
the security of America's friends in Europe and Asia are likely
buffer among countries that, while no longer avowed adver-
to be more distant and nebulous than the sharply defined
saries, continue to be suspicious of one another and might
threat the Soviet Union was seen to pose over the last four
conduct more aggressive foreign policies without a reassuring
decades. Dangers could still arise, and there is still a role for
American presence.
the United States to play in dealing with them. West Europe-
Providing reassurance will require America's continued mil-
ans will continue to share a continent with a Soviet Union that,
itary cooperation with other countries, which may prove
whatever form it ultimately takes, will be both large and
difficult. The United States may not retain all the overseas
heavily armed. Europe will need to counterbalance that mili-
military facilities and basing rights of the Cold War. The
tary power; perpetuating the American commitment is the
American presence in the Philippines, for example, is already
best way to do so.
contracting; the United States has agreed to withdraw its
The newly united Germany in particular will need some
fighter aircraft from Clark Air Force Base. Similarly, although
form of protection. German-Soviet relations are now cordial.
the German government will welcome the continuation of an
But Soviet military force, particularly Soviet nuclear weapons,
American security guarantee, the German people may be
give Moscow considerable potential for leverage over Ger-
increasingly reluctant to play host to American forces, espe-
many should new disputes arise between them. Without some
cially American nuclear weapons. If the political difficulties of
form of protection, Germans will be vulnerable to Soviet
deploying armed forces abroad will multiply in the wake of the
pressure. A Germany without a security tie to the United
Cold War, however, the forces that the United States will need
States might well feel the need to strengthen its own arma-
to deploy will be more modest. The military requirements of
ments, perhaps even with nuclear weapons. A German nuclear
arsenal would not arise from aggressive impulses. Rather, it
2 the distinction between deterrence and reassurance see Michael Howard, 1982/83. "Reassur-
would be a prudent, defensive response to a new set of
ance On and Deterrence: Western Defense in the 1980s," Foreign Affairs, Winter
14 FOREIGN AFFAIRS
THE BUSH FOREIGN POLICY 15
than those of deterrence.
reassurance in Europe and Asia will surely be less demanding
important in checking Soviet expansion in Europe. It was,
rather, a victory of Western ideas, Western political institu-
The greatest difficulty in sustaining a policy of reassurance,
ironically, may lie in winning support for it in the United
tions and, above all, Western economic practices. All three are
now ascendant throughout the world. The rejection of socialist
abroad is gone. The Cold War provided a succession of
States. The forty-year rationale for stationing American troops
economic practices and the adoption, at least in principle, of
market forms of economic organization is perhaps the broad-
American presidents with a powerful justification for station-
ing troops overseas and occasionally sending them into battle.
est and most important ongoing global trend at the outset of
the 1990s. It is a development that is bound to affect America's
deployments was to check the Soviet Union. To the American
The simple, compelling purpose of the nation's global military
relations with the rest of the world.
The trend is most dramatically evident in the former com-
public, the new purpose-reassurance-is liable to seem
munist countries of Europe. Having deposed their old-guard
not worth the risk.
vague, implausible, the product of tortured logic, or simply
communist leaders, all of the east European nations now
intend to embark on transitions from centrally planned to
In the absence of a Soviet threat the Bush administration
market economies. They have announced that they will even-
in the Persian Gulf. This president and his successors may well
floundered in finding a public justification for its military buildup
tually eliminate the cumbersome planning apparatus that
dictated targets for production, gradually allow prices to be set
continue to support an American military presence overseas.
encounter comparable difficulties in persuading the public to
by supply and demand, restore the right to own private
The same question that was raised about troops in the gulf is
property, and sell state-owned enterprises as quickly as possi-
likely to be directed at the continuing American deployments in
ble to private owners, including foreigners. Some east Euro-
Europe and Asia: Why are they there?
pean countries, notably Poland, have already begun this pro-
cess. In the Soviet Union, too, the transition to a market
To answer that question, and to rally public support for a
continuing American military presence abroad, what is needed
economy is high on the political agenda, although the commit-
ment there is more equivocal, and the steps taken so far more
to paint a vivid, convincing picture of the new world and
is what this administration notably lacks: vision-the capacity
modest and hesitant.
The rise of the market is evident as well in communist
America's interests in it Vision requires the ability to commu-
countries outside Europe, even in those where political change
nicate not only privately to other leaders, but publicly to the
American people. If this president and his successors are able
has come slowly or not at all. Although the communist party
still holds a monopoly of power in Vietnam, it transformed the
to present the appropriate vision, if they are able to make a
persuasive case for keeping enough forces in Europe and Asia
country almost overnight from an importer to an exporter of
to reassure the countries of both regions, then political and
its staple food, rice, largely by freeing agriculture from state
military disputes of the kind that dominated the Cold War era
control. The Vietnamese communists followed in the footsteps
are likely to recede. For with the end of the Soviet-American
of the successful market reforms in agriculture that began a
rivalry and the retreat of Soviet power, the basis for
decade ago in China, which also dramatically increased its food
though by no means all, of these conflicts has vanished. And many, as
production. Nowhere have governments controlled economic activity as
security issues lose some of their previous significance, eco-
nomic questions will assume a new international importance,
thoroughly as in communist states, but after achieving inde-
War. particularly those that have arisen out of the end of the Cold
pendence from colonial rule many noncommunist Third
World countries practiced their own brand of socialism. They
emphasized the protection of domestic industries, generous
V
government subsidies for consumers and producers, and
The Cold War ended in victory for the West. It was a victory
considerable public ownership of the industrial sector. The
not so much of Western arms, although they were certainly
popularity of this milder form of socialism has also faded. In
India, for example, socialism was an article of deep political
16 FOREIGN AFFAIRS
THE BUSH FOREIGN POLICY 17
faith for decades, but in the 1980s its leaders took tentative
steps to liberalize the economy. Much of Latin America has
in particular, the new democracies are fragile. Their commu-
recently turned in this direction as well, Mexico being a
nist predecessors were overthrown in part because they pre-
particularly dramatic example.
sided over economic stagnation. Democratic politics will accu-
The collapse of communism in Europe is thus part of
mulate popular support to the extent that they are identified
broader trend. As the distinguished economist Robert Heil- a
with prosperity.
broner has observed, "In the materially more advanced
The trend in favor of market institutions and practices,
tions, 'socialism' as a distinct social objective has disappeared. na-
although strong, is not universal. It is weak in Africa and the
Nothing is left of it but a better-run capitalism.' Promoting
Arab world, and virtually nonexistent in countries such as
in capitalism, the then, is a plausible goal for American foreign policy
Burma. But even where it is strong, it may not prevail. Market
post-Cold War world, especially if the impetus for it
reforms are often painful to implement. Removing subsidies
comes from foreign countries themselves. Americans have
on basic commodities can trigger political unrest, as govern-
long history of faith in free enterprise, free markets and free a
ments from Egypt to Poland have discovered to their dismay.
commerce. They have, it is true, an older, deeper attachment
Restructuring a country's industry along more economically
to political freedom. But fewer governments would welcome
rational lines inevitably throws people out of work. In a market
an American role in fostering democracy in their countries
system those with skill, initiative or just good luck prosper; others
than would seek Western help in establishing market institu-
who do less well often resent the prosperity of the fortunate.
open to the second but opposed to the first.
tions and practices. China's current leaders, for example, are
Finally, even where market reforms are initiated, the re-
formers will not necessarily use the United States as their
Even where a people and its government are dedicated
model. The American economy is but one version of a market
establishing working parliaments, competitive elections and to
free press, other countries can be of only limited assistance. a
system, and not necessarily the most attractive. The formerly
communist countries of Europe are likely to be drawn to the
Political institutions are, after all, built from within. Outside
assistance is of course not irrelevant. Democratic structures
west European "social market" style of capitalism, as exempli-
in place in Japan, Germany and the Philippines in no small are
fied by the German Federal Republic, which provides more
part because the United States, having occupied those
generous welfare benefits than the United States. In East Asia
is tries, helped to build them. Such an American role, however, coun-
the great economic success stories of the 1970s and 1980s-
no longer plausible in the post-Cold War world.
Taiwan, Singapore and South Korea-have followed the path
Installing a market economy, by contrast, lends itself
pioneered by Japan. This model features far closer relations
readily to technical and economic assistance from the outside. more
between the government and the private sector, especially in
fosters The promotion of market practices, moreover, indirectly
the allocation of capital, than are found in the United States.⁴
The American, West European and East Asian varieties of
markets democracy in at least two ways. First, functioning
litical independently of governing authorities, they expand the
restrict the power of the state because, by operating
capitalist economic organization are nonetheless closer in form
to one another than any one of them is to the centrally directed
dent space available to the individual. Public space indepen- po-
economic systems of orthodox communism, or even to the
of the state, in which citizens can organize themselves, is
milder versions of socialism that have appeared elsewhere
a necessary condition for democratic politics. This is the
during the last thirty years. At the end of the Cold War, in part
in which, as the old saying goes, "free markets make sense free
because of the manner in which it ended, these three versions
men." Second, democratic government seems to flourish most
of capitalism stand as the models that much of the world now
readily in conditions of economic success. In eastern Europe,
4 This typology is drawn from Paul Marer, "Roadblocks to Economic Transformation in
3 "The World After Communism," Dissent, Fall 1990, p. 429.
Central and Eastern Europe and Some Lessons of Market Economies," in United States-Soviet
and East European Relations: Building a Congressional CadrelEighth Conference, August 25-31,
1990, Dick Clark, ed., Queenstown (MD): The Aspen Institute, 1990.
18 FOREIGN AFFAIRS
THE BUSH FOREIGN POLICY 19
Western policy over the last forty years.
aspires to adopt. This is perhaps the greatest achievement of
period of the Marshall Plan and the present, to which the Bush
There is a parallel with the immediate aftermath of World
administration's response is not encouraging. To create suc-
War II. What the United States helped western Europe and
cessful market economies, the countries of eastern Europe and
Japan to do in the late 1940s, much of the rest of the world is
the Third World will need in the future what the countries of
seeking to do at the beginning of the 1990s. There are, to be
western Europe enjoyed in the past: a hospitable international
sure, important differences between these two periods. The
economic environment. Once in place, market institutions in
task of economic construction is today more complicated.
these countries will need access to capital. This is a particularly
World War II left the nations of western Europe with ruined
complicated problem for those nations with large external
farms and factories, but also with long experience with func-
debts. They will need more extensive debt relief-indeed, debt
tioning market economies. West Europeans had the skills
forgiveness-than they have thus far received. Even with their
capital, which the United States supplied. In formerly commu-
necessary to operate such an economic system. They needed
debt burdens lightened, they will be affected by the price of
capital. The lower world interest rates are, the greater the
buying, selling, investing and producing in conditions of
nist Europe, by contrast, almost no one has any experience in
chances for economic success.
These nations will also need access to markets in order to sell
economic competition. The citizens of these countries must
what they produce for hard currency-the lifeblood of any
start virtually from scratch to learn the techniques of modern
healthy economy. In the first year of the post-Cold War era,
economic activity. They must also build the relevant institu-
world interest rates were uncomfortably high. The trend in
tions; none has a private sector in manufacturing or services,
the international trading system, especially among the ad-
but not necessarily economic, assistance from richer countries.
financial system or a labor market. All this requires technical, a
vanced industrial countries to which the new practitioners of
market economics will look for export opportunities, was at
Eastern Europe, the Soviet Union and much of the Third
best uncertain. The Uruguay Round failed to move that
World are not yet in a position to benefit from Western capital.
system decisively toward greater openness. The reasons for
of They must first create economies that can make productive
these trends are varied and are hardly the result exclusively of
it. The Bush administration is thus not under immediate use
American policies-the Europeans are the chief culprits on
pressure to undertake a policy that it would, in any event, have
trade. Over the last ten years, however, the American contri-
great difficulty in launching: a program of large-scale eco-
bution to the worldwide cost of capital and the status of global
tices. nomic assistance to countries adopting liberal economic prac-
markets has not been constructive. Its fiscal imbalances have
had quite harmful effects.
There is another important difference between 1990 and
At the end of World War II, the United States took the lead
1947. Then, only the United States could offer support to
in launching international economic initiatives, beginning with
struggling democracies. Now, there is a thriving community of
the establishment of the International Monetary Fund, the
Japan, the which can share the task of promoting market
capitalist democracies, encompassing western Europe and
General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, and the Marshall
Plan. West Europeans benefited not only from American
world over. The United States need not, and systems indeed
generosity, but from American leadership. In keeping with
should not, be the sole source of support. Here, too, President
that tradition, America has initiated recent international ef-
Bush's inclinations are in harmony with international condi-
forts to lighten the burden of the world's principal debtors and
tions. The Bush administration is happy to deal with reform-
to lower barriers to trade: the Brady Plan and the GATT'S
minded economies on a multilateral basis, working through
Uruguay Round.
Fund international organizations such as the International Monetary
But deficits reduce America's capacity to lead. They limit its
and even the European Community, of which the
scope for reducing the debt held by its own banks and for
United States is not a member.
increasing imports from other countries. This, in turn, dimin-
There is, however, one important feature common to the
ishes American leverage with western Europe and Japan to
help solve the debt problem and expand trade. Not only is the
20 FOREIGN AFFAIRS
THE BUSH FOREIGN POLICY 21
United States historically the leader of the international
risk in the Arabian desert. A budget agreement, he could have
nomic system, it is also its biggest member. Its policies have eco- a
a
argued, would send a signal of resolve at a time when the
considerable effect on the system, apart from any efforts it
United States was trying to project an image of determination
make to guide others in a particular direction. America's may
reduced capacity to lead, due to the fiscal imbalances of the
against a foreign tyrant. He delivered no such message.
If the United States is to play a useful, let alone a leading,
1980s, has obstructed the creation of international conditions
role in the reconstruction of the world's economies according
world. favorable to the flourishing of market economies around the
to market principles, a far greater public appreciation of the
The United States has also pushed up the cost of capital by
importance of particular economic policies will have to be
running large, chronic budget deficits and financing them by
developed. What is required to rally support for such policies
deficits were not the only cause of the historically high real
borrowing in international capital markets. These budget
is a credible political explanation of the connection between
them and America's international interests. Perhaps such an
most important. The budget deficits and the effort to finance
interest rates in the 1980s, but they were certainly among the
explanation can be provided, but it seems unlikely that this
president will do so.
them also raised the value of the dollar. This, in
President Bush has proclaimed his distaste for the details of
depressed American exports, leading to a series of large trade turn,
economic policy and for the task of bringing spending into line
deficits. Exports declined, imports rose and American indus-
with resources. "When you get a problem with the complexi-
tries dependent on selling abroad, or in competition with
ties that the Middle East has now, and the gulf has now, I enjoy
foreign products at home, suffered. These industries de-
trying to put the coalition together and keep it together," he
manded protection. The United States retreated farther from
said in the fall of 1990. "I can't say I just rejoice every time I go
free trade during the 1980s than in any comparable period
up and talk to [House Ways and Means Committee Chairman
since World War II. American protectionism imposed a
Dan] Rostenkowski about what he's going to do on taxes. But
ticular hardship on Third World countries; the United States par-
the way Rostenkowski and his colleagues vote on taxes will
has historically taken a far greater share of their exports than
have as much to do with the pursuit of American international
Japan or western Europe.
interests in the post-Cold War era as the way foreign govern-
ments, with whose leaders the president has dealt so artfully,
VI
vote at the United Nations.
If economic issues will be ascendant in the post-Cold War
Apart from his personal inclinations, Bush's presidency rests
era, if an important American goal will be to assist in the
on a coalition of forces and interests that offer no political basis
establishment of market economies, and if the most immedi-
for economic policies in support of the international trends
ately useful way to promote market reforms is to reduce
favored by the United States. For twenty years Republican
America's own economic imbalances, then the 1990 budget
presidents have supported American Cold War security com-
negotiations were as relevant to the long-term future of
mitments, while avoiding the costs of sustaining the interna-
American foreign policy as the Persian Gulf crisis.
tional economic order designed after World War II. They
The way the president went about securing it, however, did
Those negotiations finally did produce a budget agreement.
have been simultaneously scrupulous in fulfilling the nation's
security obligations and delinquent in observing standards of
little to convey a strong commitment to the kinds of policies
international economic propriety.
required to pursue America's international political and eco-
Richard Nixon inaugurated this two-track foreign policy by
nomic interests in the post-Cold War world. President Bush
going to great and expensive lengths to vindicate the Ameri-
failed to draw the necessary connection for the public between
can commitment to Vietnam and, at the same time, abandon-
the nation's fiscal soundness and its international interests,
ing the gold-exchange standard and destroying the interna-
even in the Persian Gulf. He could have appealed for modest
economic sacrifice at a moment when American troops were at
5 Quoted in Time, Oct. 22, 1990, P. 27.
22 FOREIGN AFFAIRS
tional monetary system crafted in 1944 at Bretton Woods.
Charles Krauthammer
Ronald Reagan continued the pattern by presiding over both
substantial increases in defense spending, the better to con-
THE UNIPOLAR MOMENT
deficits, with all the attendant international economic disloca-
front the Soviet Union in the early 1980s, and large budget
tion. The combination proved to be a formula for electoral
E
success for them and for their political heir, George Bush.⁶
ver since it became clear that an exhausted Soviet Union
In the post-Cold War era, the international interests of the
was calling off the Cold War, the quest has been on for a new
United States, not to mention the nation's own economic
American role in the world. Roles, however, are not invented in
priority to what most economists regard as sensible economic
well-being, depend on reversing this approach and giving
the abstract; they are a response to a perceived world structure.
Accordingly, thinking about post-Cold War American foreign
policies. Such a reversal will be politically difficult to accom-
policy has been framed by several conventionally accepted as-
plish, as the protracted wrangling over the budget in 1990
sumptions about the shape of the post-Cold War environment.
demonstrated. It is, moreover, a reversal that this president is
First, it has been assumed that the old bipolar world would
unlikely to achieve. This is so ultimately because George Bush
beget a multipolar world with power dispersed to new centers
is, personally and politically, a product of the Cold War. He
in Japan, Germany (and/or "Europe"), China and a dimin-
could hardly be anything else. His skills, ideas and political
ished Soviet Union/Russia. Second, that the domestic Ameri-
constituency were acquired in a time when the great rivalry
can consensus for an internationalist foreign policy, a consen-
with the Soviet Union dominated America's relations with the
sus radically weakened by the experience in Vietnam, would
rest of the world. These qualities served him and the nation
substantially be restored now that policies and debates inspired
well at the end of the 1980s, but they are likely to be far less
by "an inordinate fear of communism" could be safely retired.
useful in the era ahead. In historical perspective, George Bush
Third, that in the new post-Soviet strategic environment the
adeptly, over the disappearance of the kind of world in which
may come to enjoy the ironic distinction of having presided,
threat of war would be dramatically diminished.
All three of these assumptions are mistaken. The immediate
States. he was best able to guide the foreign policy of the United
post-Cold War world is not multipolar. It is unipolar. The
center of world power is the unchallenged superpower, the
United States, attended by its Western allies. Second, the
internationalist consensus is under renewed assault. The as-
sault this time comes not only from the usual pockets of
post-Vietnam liberal isolationism (e.g., the churches) but from
a resurgence of 1930s-style conservative isolationism. And
third, the emergence of a new strategic environment, marked
by the rise of small aggressive states armed with weapons of
mass destruction and possessing the means to deliver them
(what might be called Weapon States), makes the coming
decades a time of heightened, not diminished, threat of war.
II
The most striking feature of the post-Cold War world is its
unipolarity. No doubt, multipolarity will come in time. In
taxes Lyndon or Johnson's decision to escalate American involvement in Vietnam without increasing with
6 This combination of policies arguably originated in a Democratic administration,
reducing domestic spending.
Charles Krauthammer is a syndicated columnist. This article is adapted
from the author's Henry M. Jackson Memorial Lecture delivered in
Washington, D.C., Sept. 18, 1990.
Photocopy-Preservation
Essay
Charles Krauthammer
Must America Slay All the Dragons?
"Students massacred in China, priests mur-
policy degenerates into mindless moralism on the one hand or
dered in Central America, demonstrators gunned
cynical realpolitik on the other.
down in Lithuania-these acts of violence are as
The U.S. does not intervene purely for reasons of morality. If
wrong as Iraqi soldiers' killing civilians. We can-
it did, it would spend itself dry righting every wrong in the world.
not oppose repression in one place and overlook
Nor does it act purely out of self-interest. If, for example, a genu-
it in another.
ine pro-Iraqi coup had led Kuwaitis to join voluntarily with Iraq,
-Senator George Mitchell, Jan. 29, 1991
the U.S. would hardly have gone to war to reverse that action.
(During the oil shocks of the 1970s, suggestions that the U.S. seize
"So what does this mean, that we want to stop naked [Iraqi]
the oil fields of Arabia were never even taken seriously.)
aggression? Does this mean that the United States will indeed
Every intervention requires a just cause. That doesn't mean
become the policeman of the world?"
that every just cause warrants intervention. To warrant interven-
-Senator Tom Harkin, Jan. 11, 1991
tion, a cause must at the same time be important to the U.S. The
idea that importance ought not matter and that consistency im-
Well, gentlemen, which is it? The Demo-
pels us to intervene against every injustice is
crats first complain that it is hypocritical to op-
simply American moralism gone wild.
pose injustice x but tolerate injustice V. Then
they complain that the U.S. has turned into
DAVID SUTER FOR TIME
Life presents us with a hierarchy of evils.
Being finite, we are forced assign them pri-
the world's policeman. How can it be other-
ority and even, if necessary, tolerate some less-
wise? If stopping one injustice morally com-
er evil to fight the greater. Was it wrong to
mits us to stopping all injustice, what does that
have blinked at the enormities of Stalin for the
make the U.S. if not the world's policeman?
four years that he was needed in the war
It does not take a Kissinger to figure that
against Hitler?
any nation has to be selective in its attention
Take a hard case, Lithuania. For the
to the injustices of the world. Those who im-
months of the crisis, until Gorbachev went
ply otherwise have an agenda-and it is not
free-lancing with his peace plan, there seemed
to turn the U.S. into the world's policeman.
to be a tacit U.S.-Soviet understanding: the
It is to turn the U.S. into the world's bystand-
U.S.S.R. would stay within the anti-Iraq coali-
er. If opposing injustice anywhere obliges us
tion, and the U.S. would go easy on criticizing
to become involved everywhere, then only a
Moscow's repression of Lithuania. Is such a
fool would not prefer involvement nowhere.
deal conscionable?
This false everywhere-nowhere dichoto-
One could say that it is foolish, that we are
my is the moral pillar of American Isolation-
misreading our interests, that in the long run a
ism. Wherever the American banner has
freed Soviet empire is more important to
been raised in the past decade-Grenada,
America than a small Arabian principality.
Panama, Nicaragua and now the Persian
Perhaps, but the critics' charge is not geopolit-
Gulf-isolationists have demanded to know,
ical. It is moral. Americans, they maintain,
How can we in good conscience oppose bad
cannot in good conscience uphold freedom in
guys there and not land Marines in Port-au-
one place and tolerate repression in another.
Prince or Cape Town?
Yes, they can, and sometimes they must.
The question is posed constantly. Only the
America is not omnipotent. It cannot be ev-
place names change. Mitchell, in his response
erywhere. It has to have priorities. One can-
to the President's State of the Union address,
not equate the utter devastation of Kuwait
brought up China, El Salvador and Lithuania.
with the cruel but hardly fatal repression of
Mario Cuomo, questioning George Bush's motive for interven-
Lithuania. There is no doubt that under Gorbachev or his gen-
ing in the gulf, asks ironically, Was it designed to curb aggres-
erals, Lithuania will continue to exist as a society. There can
sion? Then why not intervene in Afghanistan or Tibet?
be little doubt that under Saddam, Kuwait will not.
The answer is breathtakingly simple. Why are American
Foreign policy is an exercise in discrimination. Our re-
exertions on behalf of the oppressed. selective? National
sources, like our stores of compassion, are finite. We take up
interest.
arms against those troubles that are both particularly evil and
Americans, haunted by the stern visage of Woodrow Wil-
particularly threatening to us. And we husband our resources to
son, are loath to confess that they do not act for reasons of mo-
meet those troubles. That will occasionally mean having to re-
rality alone. We would rather not admit that one reason to re-
cruit others to help and having to make moral compromises to
sist Saddam Hussein is that we are not prepared to see the
keep that help. Hence our long minuet with the Soviets over the
economies of the West wrecked by the ambition of a foreign
Baltics.
tyrant. Indeed, some American critics think it a fatal moral
After the gulf crisis, we must be equally nimble in reordering
criticism of the gulf war to say that if Kuwait had only sand and
our priorities. We must immediately turn to a vigorous advocacy
no oil, the U.S. would not have rushed to its defense.
of Baltic independence. But it would be irresponsible to jeopar-
The answer to that charge is, Of course not. And, So what?
dize the war effort by doing so during the crisis. War is no time for
Foreign policy is not philanthropy. Any intervention must pass
moral luxuries. The first task in war is winning it.
two tests: it must be 1) right and 2) in our interests. Each is a
We cannot slay all the dragons at once. There is no dishon-
necessary condition. Neither is sufficient. Otherwise, foreign
or in slaying them one at a time.
88
TIME, MARCH 4, 1991
THE WASHINGTON POST
Charles Krauthammer
A Brain-Dead Party
Ten years ago, Daniel Patrick Moynihan pronounced
became clear that though low taxes could produce
the Democratic Party brain dead. The Democrats had
growth and jobs and prosperity, they could not do so
"ceased to be a party of ideas," while the Republicans
forever because they also produced fantastic debt, now
were now "serious about ideas," wrote Moynihan, a man
exceeding $3 trillion.
with enough ideas of his own to supply several political
It was only a matter of time before Bush bent to
parties. Moynihan was right. Spent by the success of the
reality and agreed to new taxes. That may save the
New Deal and having no idea what to do next, by 1980
economy, but it will sink the Republican Party. No-
the Democratic Party was intellectually bankrupt.
new-taxes was, after all, Bush's only domestic idea. Its
It is 10 years later, and another bankruptcy needs to
beauty was that it was not just an idea, it was an idea
be declared. While blunders are blamed and fingers
stopper. No taxes meant never having to say which
pointed, the Republican collapse of 1990 is too large to
taxes. Republicans were insulated from ever having to
be explained simply by the tactical errors of George
face the real question of governance: choosing who
Bush in the great budget crunch. Republican malaise
gets taxed and how much.
goes far deeper than that. The party has run out of ideas.
Which is why Republican politicians who for a
To be sure, it did not have many to begin with. Two
decade prospered politically behind the tax shield were
to be exact. (Though that was two more than the
Democrats had in the 1980s.) One was peace through
apoplectic when Bush gave it up. They understood that
strength. The other was growth through low taxes.
it would leave them defenseless to Democratic charges
that they are the party of the rich.
Reagan and Bush rode these simple and appealing
maxims to three smashing electoral victories.
Once Bush came down from the Andrews Summit
The Republican problem today is that both ideas are
and presented the country with a list of service cuts
dead. Peace through strength is now politically obso-
and gas and beer taxes, people realized that the game
lete. And painless prosperity through low taxes has
was up. Somebody was going to have to pay past and
proven false.
present bills, and Bush had decided which ones. Bush-
Peace through strength has been undone by its own
onomics was exposed as nothing more than classic (i.e.,
success. Reagan insisted on strength: increased de-
pre-Reagan) Republican trickle-down economics, a
fense spending, unpopular missile deployments, honest
known political loser.
Take away no-new-taxes, and what does the Repub-
lican Party stand for? Cutting the capital gains tax, Bush
insisted for a while. But this is not just a paltry substitute
"Painless prosperity through
for no-new-taxes. It is a hopelessly class-biased substi-
tute. It plays directly into Democratic hands by reviving
low taxes has proven false."
the pre-Reagan image of country club Republicanism.
In any case, Bush caved on capital gains too. Even half
"evil empire" rhetoric (today almost the official Mos-
an idea is more than the party is now capable of
cow line on Brezhnev's U.S.S.R.), and the Reagan
sustaining.
Doctrine (the final offensive of the Cold War, which
What does a party do when it runs out of ideas? It can
bled the Soviets dry in Brezhnev's far-flung Third
only hope that the other guy has even fewer ideas. This
World empire.) With strength came peace, victory in
time, however, the Democrats may not cooperate. The
the Cold War. There are many reasons for the collapse
soak-the-rich, burden-the-allies, pro-choice Democrats
of the Soviet empire, but one of them certainly is that
are stirring. It is too soon to say that they are out of
the United States did not seek some phony armistice
their coma. But there is movement beneath the eyelids.
with the Soviets as urged by the post-Vietnam accom-
modationists of the '70s.
There is only one problem with peace through
strength as a unifying and winning political idea. It is
now as obsolete as communism. It still has application,
of course, in places like the Persian Gulf. But this is a
harder sell. Soviet missiles were a threat to the
American homeland and Soviet ideology a threat to the
American idea. Iraq is neither.
Since Vietnam, the Republican Party has been the
nationalist party. But as shown by the rise of conserva-
tive isolationism, in a post-Cold War world Republicans
are finding it much harder to articulate a coherent
nationalist program.
To be sure, the still nebulous "new world order" is a
glimmer of an idea. On domestic policy, however,
Republican thinking has collapsed completely. Growth
through low taxes, inflated by Bush to no-new-taxes,
was by nature a time-limited proposition. Once the
Laffer Curve free lunch was shown to be nonsense, it
BY TOLES
22 FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Ronald tional monetary system crafted in 1944 at Bretton Woods.
Charles Krauthammer
substantial Reagan continued the pattern by presiding over both
front increases in defense spending, the better to
THE UNIPOLAR MOMENT
tion. with all the attendant international economic disloca- budget
deficits, the Soviet Union in the early 1980s, and large con-
The combination proved to be a formula for electoral
success In for them and for their political heir, George Bush.⁶
E
ver since it became clear that an exhausted Soviet Union
the post-Cold War era, the international interests of the
was calling off the Cold War, the quest has been on for a new
United States, not to mention the nation's own
American role in the world. Roles, however, are not invented in
well-being, depend on reversing this approach and economic
the abstract; they are a response to a perceived world structure.
policies. Such a reversal will be politically difficult to
priority to what most economists regard as sensible economic giving
Accordingly, thinking about post-Cold War American foreign
policy has been framed by several conventionally accepted as-
plish, as the protracted wrangling over the budget in accom- 1990
sumptions about the shape of the post-Cold War environment.
demonstrated. It is, moreover, a reversal that this president is
First, it has been assumed that the old bipolar world would
is, unlikely to achieve. This is so ultimately because George Bush
beget a multipolar world with power dispersed to new centers
could personally and politically, a product of the Cold War.
in Japan, Germany (and/or "Europe"), China and a dimin-
with constituency the were acquired in a time when the
hardly be anything else. His skills, ideas and political He
ished Soviet Union/Russia. Second, that the domestic Ameri-
can consensus for an internationalist foreign policy, a consen-
Soviet Union dominated America's relations great with rivalry the
sus radically weakened by the experience in Vietnam, would
rest of the world. These qualities served him and the
substantially be restored now that policies and debates inspired
well at the end of the 1980s, but they are likely to be far nation less
by "an inordinate fear of communism" could be safely retired.
useful in the era ahead. In historical perspective, George Bush
Third, that in the new post-Soviet strategic environment the
may come to enjoy the ironic distinction of having
threat of war would be dramatically diminished.
he adeptly, over the disappearance of the kind of world presided, in which
All three of these assumptions are mistaken. The immediate
States. was best able to guide the foreign policy of the United
post-Cold War world is not multipolar. It is unipolar. The
center of world power is the unchallenged superpower, the
United States, attended by its Western allies. Second, the
internationalist consensus is under renewed assault. The as-
sault this time comes not only from the usual pockets of
post-Vietnam liberal isolationism (e.g., the churches) but from
a resurgence of 1930s-style conservative isolationism. And
third, the emergence of a new strategic environment, marked
by the rise of small aggressive states armed with weapons of
mass destruction and possessing the means to deliver them
(what might be called Weapon States), makes the coming
decades a time of heightened, not diminished, threat of war.
II
The most striking feature of the post-Cold War world is its
unipolarity. No doubt, multipolarity will come in time. In
Lyndon 0 This Johnson's combination of policies arguably originated in a Democratic
taxes or reducing domestic decision spending. to escalate American involvement in Vietnam administration, without increasing with
Charles Krauthammer is a syndicated columnist. This article is adapted
from the author's Henry M. Jackson Memorial Lecture delivered in
Washington, D.C., Sept. 18, 1990.
24 FOREIGN AFFAIRS
THE UNIPOLAR MOMENT 25
perhaps another generation or so there will be great powers
allied and Soviet support for American action in the gulf and
coequal with the United States, and the world will, in structure,
speaks of a conspiracy of North against South. Although it is
resemble the pre-World War I era. But we are not there yet,
perverse for Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein to claim to repre-
nor will we be for decades. Now is the unipolar moment.
sent the South, his analysis does contain some truth. The
There is today no lack of second-rank powers. Germany and
unipolar moment means that with the close of the century's
Japan are economic dynamos. Britain and France can deploy
three great Northern civil wars (World War I, World War II
diplomatic and to some extent military assets. The Soviet
and the Cold War) an ideologically pacified North seeks
Union possesses several elements of power-military, diplo-
security and order by aligning its foreign policy behind that of
matic and political-but all are in rapid decline. There is but
the United States. That is what is taking shape now in the
one first-rate power and no prospect in the immediate future
Persian Gulf. And for the near future, it is the shape of things
of any power to rival it.
to come.
Only a few months ago it was conventional wisdom that the
The Iraqis are equally acute in demystifying the much
new rivals, the great pillars of the new multipolar world, would
celebrated multilateralism of this new world order. They
be Japan and Germany (and/or Europe). How quickly a myth
charge that the entire multilateral apparatus (United Nations
translates into geopolitical influence is a materialist illusion.
can explode. The notion that economic power inevitably
resolutions, Arab troops, European Community pronounce-
ments, and so on) established in the gulf by the United States
Economic power is a necessary condition for great power
is but a transparent cover for what is essentially an American
status. But it certainly is not sufficient, as has been made clear
challenge to Iraqi regional hegemony.
by the recent behavior of Germany and Japan, which have
But of course. There is much pious talk about a new
in Kuwait. And while a unified Europe may sometime in the
generally hidden under the table since the first shots rang out
multilateral world and the promise of the United Nations as
guarantor of a new post-Cold War order. But this is to mistake
disjointed national responses to the crisis in the Persian Gulf
next century act as a single power, its initial disarray and
cause and effect, the United States and the United Nations.
The United Nations is guarantor of nothing. Except in a
again illustrate that "Europe" does not yet qualify even as a
formal sense, it can hardly be said to exist. Collective security?
player on the world stage.
In the gulf, without the United States leading and prodding,
Which leaves us with the true geopolitical structure of the
bribing and blackmailing, no one would have stirred. Nothing
crisis: a single pole of world power that consists of the United
post-Cold War world, brought sharply into focus by the gulf
would have been done: no embargo, no "Desert Shield," no
threat of force. The world would have written off Kuwait the
States at the apex of the industrial West. Perhaps it is more
way the last body pledged to collective security, the League of
accurate to say the United States and behind it the West,
Nations, wrote off Abyssinia.
because where the United States does not tread, the alliance
There is a sharp distinction to be drawn between real and
does not follow. That was true for the reflagging of Kuwaiti
apparent multilateralism. True multilateralism involves a gen-
vessels in 1987. It has been all the more true of the world's
uine coalition of coequal partners of comparable strength and
subsequent response to the invasion of Kuwait.
stature-the World War II Big Three coalition, for example.
American preeminence is based on the fact that it is the only
What we have today is pseudo-multilateralism: a dominant
country with the military, diplomatic, political and economic
great power acts essentially alone, but, embarrassed at the idea
assets to be a decisive player in any conflict in whatever part of
and still worshiping at the shrine of collective security, recruits
the world it chooses to involve itself. In the Persian Gulf, for
a ship here, a brigade there, and blessings all around to give its
example, it was the United States, acting unilaterally and with
unilateral actions a multilateral sheen. The gulf is no more a
taking effective control of the entire Arabian Peninsula.
extraordinary speed, that in August 1990 prevented Iraq from
collective operation than was Korea, still the classic case study
in pseudo-multilateralism.
Iraq, having inadvertently revealed the unipolar structure
Why the pretense? Because a large segment of American
of today's world, cannot stop complaining about it. It looks at
opinion doubts the legitimacy of unilateral American action
26 FOREIGN AFFAIRS
THE UNIPOLAR MOMENT 27
but accepts quite readily actions undertaken by the "world
community" acting in concert. Why it should matter to Amer-
the low tax ideology of the 1980s, coupled with America's
icans that their actions get a Security Council nod from,
insatiable desire for yet higher standards of living without
beyond me. But to many Americans it matters. It is largely for
Deng Xiaoping and the butchers of Tiananmen Square say, is
paying any of the cost.
One can debate whether America is in true economic
domestic reasons, therefore, that American political leaders
decline. Its percentage of world GNP is roughly where it has
The make sure to dress unilateral action in multilateral clothing.
been throughout the twentieth century (between 22 and 26
danger, of course, is that they might come to believe their
percent), excepting the aberration of the immediate post-
own pretense.
World War II era when its competitors were digging out from
The spectacle of secretaries of state and treasury flying around
But can America long sustain its unipolar preeminence?
the rubble of war. But even if one does argue that America is
in economic decline, it is simply absurd to imply that the road
the world rattling tin cups to support America's Persian Gulf
to solvency is to, say, abandon El Salvador, evacuate the
litical deployment exposed the imbalance between America's
Philippines or get out of the gulf. There may be other good
reach and its resources. Does that not imply that geopo- the
reasons for doing all of these. But it is nonsense to suggest
right and that unipolarity is unsustainable?
theorists of American decline and "imperial overstretch" are
doing them as a way to get at the root of America's economic
problems.
It is, of course, true that if America succeeds in running its
It is, moreover, a mistake to view America's exertions abroad
economy into the ground, it will not be able to retain its
as nothing but a drain on its economy. As can be seen in the
unipolar role for long. In which case the unipolar moment will
gulf, America's involvement abroad is in many ways an essen-
be brief indeed (one decade, perhaps, rather than, three
tial pillar of the American economy. The United States is, like
be because of imperial overstretch, i.e., because America has not
or four). But if the economy is run into the ground say, it will
Britain before it, a commercial, maritime, trading nation that
needs an open, stable world environment in which to thrive. In
overreached abroad and drained itself with geopolitical entan-
a world of Saddams, if the United States were to shed its
glements. The United States today spends 5.4 percent of its
unique superpower role, its economy would be gravely wounded.
GNP on defense. Under John F. Kennedy, when the United
Insecure sea lanes, impoverished trading partners, exorbitant oil
States was at its economic and political apogee, it spent almost
prices, explosive regional instability are only the more obvious
twice as much. Administration plans have U.S. defense spend-
risks of an American abdication. Foreign entanglements are
ing on a trajectory down to four percent by 1995, the lowest
indeed a burden. But they are also a necessity. The cost of
since Pearl Harbor.
ensuring an open and safe world for American commerce-5.4
An American collapse to second-rank status will be not for
percent of GNP and falling-is hardly exorbitant.
foreign but for domestic reasons. This is not the place to
III
engage in extended debate about the cause of America's
economic difficulties. But the notion that we have
Can America support its unipolar status? Yes. But will
ourselves into penury abroad is simply not sustainable. Amer- spent
Americans support such unipolar status? That is a more
ica's low savings rate, poor educational system, stagnant
problematic question. For a small but growing chorus of
ductivity, declining work habits, rising demand for welfare- pro-
Americans this vision of a unipolar world led by a dynamic
state entitlements and new taste for ecological luxuries have
America is a nightmare. Hence the second major element of
nothing at all to do with engagement in Europe, Central
the post-Cold War reality: the revival of American isolation-
America or the Middle East. Over the last thirty years, while
ism.
taxes remained almost fixed (rising from 18.3 percent to 19.6
I have great respect for American isolationism. First, be-
percent) and defense spending declined, domestic entitle-
cause of its popular appeal and, second, because of its natural
ments nearly doubled. What created an economy of debt
appeal. On the face of it, isolationism seems the logical,
unrivaled in American history is not foreign adventures but
God-given foreign policy for the United States. It is not just
geography that inclines us to it-we are an island continent
28 FOREIGN AFFAIRS
THE UNIPOLAR MOMENT 29
protected by two vast oceans, bordered by two neighbors that
Many of realism's practitioners were heroic in the heroic
could hardly be friendlier-but history. America was founded
on the idea of cleansing itself of the intrigues and irrationali-
struggles against fascism and communism. Now, however,
ties, the dynastic squabbles and religious wars, of the Old
some argue that the time for heroism is passed. For example,
World. One must have respect for a strain of American
Jeane J. Kirkpatrick wrote, to be sure before. the gulf crisis,
thinking so powerful that four months before Pearl Harbor
that "It is time to give up the dubious benefits of superpower
the vote to extend draft enlistments passed the House of
status," time to give up the "unusual burdens" of the past and
Representatives by a single vote.
"return to 'normal' times." That means taking "care of press-
Isolationists say rather unobjectionably that America should
ing problems of education, family, industry and technology" at
confine its attentions in the world to defending vital national
home. That means that we should not try to be the balancer of
interests. But the more extreme isolationists define vital na-
power in Europe or in Asia, nor try to shape the political
tional interests to mean the physical security of the United
evolution of the Soviet Union. We should aspire instead to be
States, and the more elusive isolationists take care never to
"a normal country in a normal time."¹
define them at all.
This is a rather compelling vision of American purpose. But
Isolationists will, of course, say that this is unfair, that they
I am not sure there is such a thing as normal times. If a normal
do believe in defending vital national interests beyond the
time is a time when there is no evil world empire on the loose,
physical security of the United States. We have a test case.
when the world is in ideological repose, then even such a time
Iraq's invasion of Kuwait and hegemonic designs on Arabia
is not necessarily peacetime. Saddam has made this point
posed as clear a threat to American interests as one can
rather emphatically. If a normal time is a time when the world
imagine-a threat to America's oil-based economy, to its close
sorts itself out on its own, leaving America relatively
allies in the region, and ultimately to American security itself.
unmolested-say, for America, the nineteenth century-then
The rise of a hostile power, fueled by endless oil income,
I would suggest that there are no normal times. The world
building weapons of mass destruction and the means to deliver
does not sort itself out on its own. In the nineteenth century,
them regionally and eventually intercontinentally (Saddam has
for example, international stability was not achieved on its own
already tested a three-stage rocket) can hardly be a matter of
but, in large part, as the product of Britain's unrelenting
indifference to the United States.
exertions on behalf of the balance of power. America tended
If under these conditions a cadre of influential liberals and
her vineyards, but only behind two great ocean walls patrolled
conservatives finds that upon reflection (and in contradiction
by the British navy. Alas, the British navy is gone.
to the doctrine enunciated by the most dovish president of the
International stability is never a given. It is never the norm.
postwar era, Jimmy Carter) the Persian Gulf is not, after all, a
When achieved, it is the product of self-conscious action by the
vital American interest, then it is hard to see what "vital
great powers, and most particularly of the greatest power,
interest" can mean. If the Persian Gulf is not a vital interest,
which now and for the foreseeable future is the United States.
then nothing is. All that is left is preventing an invasion of the
If America wants stability, it will have to create it. Communism
Florida Keys. And for that you need a Coast Guard-you do
is indeed finished, the last of the messianic creeds that have
not need a Pentagon and you certainly do not need a State
haunted this century is quite dead. But there will constantly be
Department.
new threats disturbing our peace.
Isolationism is the most extreme expression of the American
desire to return to tend its vineyards. But that desire finds
IV
expression in another far more sophisticated and serious
What threats? Everyone recognizes one great change in the
foreign policy school: not isolationism but realism, the school
international environment, the collapse of communism. If that
that insists that American foreign policy be guided solely by
were the only change, then this might be a normal time and
interests and that generally defines these interests in a narrow
and national manner.
I "A Normal Country in a Normal Time," National Interest, Fall 1990, pp. 40-44.
30 FOREIGN AFFAIRS
the unipolar vision I have outlined would seem at once
unnecessary and dangerous.
But there is another great change in international relations.
And here we come to the third and most crucial new element
in the post-Cold War world: the emergence of a new strategic
environment marked by the proliferation of weapons of mass
destruction. It is a certainty that in the near future there will be
a dramatic increase in the number of states armed with
biological, chemical and nuclear weapons and the means to
deliver them anywhere on earth. "By the year 2000," estimates
Defense Secretary Dick Cheney, "more than two dozen devel-
oping nations will have ballistic missiles, 15 of those countries
will have the scientific skills to make their own, and half of
them either have or are near to getting nuclear capability, as
well. Thirty countries will have chemical weapons and ten will
be able to deploy biological weapons."2
It is of course banal to say that modern technology has
shrunk the world. But the obvious corollary, that in a
shrunken world the divide between regional superpowers and
great powers is radically narrowed, is rarely drawn. Missiles
shrink distance Nuclear (or chemical or biological) devices
multiply power. Both can be bought at market. Consequently
the geopolitical map is irrevocably altered. Fifty years ago,
Germany-centrally located, highly industrial and heavily
populated-could pose a threat to world security and to the
other great powers. It was inconceivable that a relatively small
Middle Eastern state with an almost entirely imported indus-
trial base could do anything more than threaten its neighbors.
The central truth of the coming era is that this is no longer the
case: relatively small, peripheral and backward states will be
able to emerge rapidly as threats not only to regional, but to
world, security.
Iraq, which (unless disarmed by Desert Storm) will likely be
in possession of intercontinental missiles within the decade, is
the prototype of this new strategic threat, what might be called
the "Weapon State." The Weapon State is an unusual interna-
tional creature marked by several characteristics:
-It is not much of a nation state. Iraq, for example, is a state
of recent vintage with arbitrary borders whose ruling
party explicitly denies that Iraq is a nation. (It refers to
2 Address to the Conservative Leadership Conference, Washington, D.C., Nov. 9, 1990.
THE UNIPOLAR MOMENT 31
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the greatest single threat to world security for the rest of our
century are as invisible today as was, say, Nazism in 1920. They
lives. That is what makes a new international order not an
will make themselves known soon enough. Only a hopeless
imperial dream or a Wilsonian fantasy but a matter of the
sheerest prudence. It is slowly dawning on the West that there
utopian can believe otherwise.
We are in for abnormal times. Our best hope for safety in
is a need to establish some new regime to police these weapons
such times, as in difficult times past, is in American strength
and those who brandish them.
and will-the strength and will to lead a unipolar world,
In parliamentary debate on the gulf crisis even British
unashamedly laying down the rules of world order and being
Labour Party leader Neil Kinnock has emphasized that it is not
prepared to enforce them. Compared to the task of defeating
enough to get Iraq out of Kuwait. Iraq's chemical stocks, he
fascism and communism, averting chaos is a rather subtle call
said, must be destroyed and its nuclear program internation-
ally controlled. When the Labour Party, hardly a home for
to greatness. It is not a task we are any more eager to
undertake than the great twilight struggle just concluded. But
new Western consensus.
hawks, speaks thus, we have the makings, the beginnings, of a
it is just as noble and just as necessary.
solution will have to include three elements: denying, disarm-
To do what exactly? There is no definitive answer, but any
ing, and defending. First, we will have to develop a new
regime, similar to COCOM (Coordinating Committee on Export
Controls) to deny yet more high technology to such states.
Second, those states that acquire such weapons anyway will
have to submit to strict outside control or risk being physically
disarmed. A final element must be the development of antibal-
listic missile and air defense systems to defend against those
weapons that do escape Western control or preemption.
There might be better tactics, but the overall strategy is
clear. With the rise of the Weapon State, there is no alternative
to confronting, deterring and, if necessary, disarming states
that brandish and use weapons of mass destruction. And there
allies as will join the endeavor.
is no one to do that but the United States, backed by as many
The alternative to such robust and difficult intervention-
ism-the alternative to unipolarity-is not a stable, static
multipolar world. It is not an eighteenth-century world in
which mature powers like Europe, Russia, China, America,
and Japan jockey for position in the game of nations. The
alternative to unipolarity is chaos.
I do not mean to imply that weapons of mass destruction are
the only threat facing the post-Cold War world. They are only
the most obvious. Other threats exist, but they are more
speculative and can be seen today only in outline: the rise, for
example, of intolerant aggressive nationalism in a disintegrat-
ing communist bloc (in one extreme formulation, the emer-
gence of a reduced but resurgent, xenophobic and resentful
"Weimar" Russia). And some threats to the peace of the 21st