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Originally Processed With FOIA(s): FOIA Number: S FOIA MARKER This is not a textual record. This is used as an administrative marker by the George Bush Presidential Library Staff. Record Group/Collection: George H.W. Bush Presidential Records Collection/Office of Origin: Speechwriting, White House Office of Series: Snow, Tony, Files Subseries: Subject File, 1988-1993 OA/ID Number: 13896 Folder ID Number: 13896-013 Folder Title: [Newspaper Clippings, 1989-1991] Stack: Row: Section: Shelf: Position: G 18 29 2 4 222 Cate THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON 1872 Serions mmy 1483 Stable 205 but Janes Wash Horp. Ctr. THE WALL STREET JOURNAL MONDAY, NOVEMBER 27, 1989 In Russia, Is It 1905 Again? By VLADIMIR BUKOVSKY Everything disintegrated, everything other parts of the country and other indus- restricting cooperatives and extending po- "By late October the Baltic provinces turned to chaos." tries. It virtually brought the entire coun- lice powers to the army. In April of this were in a state of full-blown rebellion; the It is hard to belleve that this passage Is try to a standstill by paralyzing the rail- year, an attempt was made to Introduce a Caucasus was afire with ethnic and nation- not yesterday's dispatch from Moscow, but ways. Even the liberal professions joined new and even more,severe law in place of alistic violence And, of course, Po- a page from a book by Leon Trotsky. To be in. It rapidly became a political, Instead of the notorious articles 70 and 190 of the land was "completely ungovernable." Is sure, we still do not have an outright mu- an economic, action. Nothing could stop it, Criminal Code used against dissidents un- this what a historian will write about our tiny in the Soviet Army, nor do we see like a wildfire. der Brezhnev. Although the law was with- time? No, this is what a historian has writ- rebellious peasants looting and burning es- ten about the Russian revolution of 1905. tates of the landlords, as they did in 1905. The Soviet wildfire bègan as a minor drawn for re-drafting at the last moment, Admittedly, there is no comparison be- The breakdown of law and order is, how- pay dispute in the coal mines of Vorkuta, the authorities' intention was unmistak- tween the Russian monarchy and a totali- ever, undeniable. "It is an explosion of and spread to other coal mines in Kuzbass able. Then this fall came another round crime, a real explosion," the minister of and Donbass. A mere threat of a railroad of emergency legislation: a ban on strikes, tarian nuclear superpower. It is not just strike-the railroad's are still Russia's mo- more restrictions on cooperatives and an a century that separates them, a century the interior, V. Bakatin, has complained in tor nerves-frightened Mr. Gorbachev SO increase in the number of the Internal of incredibly fast developments in all Literaturnaya Gazeta. spheres of human life; the principles upon much that he hastily accepted all the Troops. Racketeers and youth gangs terrorize which they were built have nothing in com- entire cities, sometimes even storming po- miners' demands, even though he knew he While no one can tell exactly when the mon. Yet the current Soviet crisis is re- lice stations when one of their lot is ar- could not possibly fulfill his promises. crackdown may occur, the task itself will markably similar to that of 1905. be much easier than is believed. The 1905 rested. Shootings have became comnion on In the pause since then, Mr. Gorbachev It is little remembered today that the the streets of Moscow. Although possession revolution was, remember, crushed, even rushed through his Duma a ban on all events of 1905 were set in motion by a cam- of firearms is a criminal offense, accord- though the czarist police were no match strikes of any -significance, as if a ban raign of glasnost. Prince Svyatopolk- ing to police estimates there are 16 million for the KGB, and the czarist army, most of could ever stop a wildfire-but the strikes Mirsky, former chief which was trapped in the Far East as a re- or 17 million firearms returned two months of gendarmes, was The events of 1905 in private hands, and later, -this time, Ille- sult of the war with appointed minister of the number is grow- gally. The striking A totalitarian regime Japan, was only about the interior in order were set: in motion by a one-fifth of the size of ing. A popular joke- miners of Vorkuta are to inaugurate "an ep- the best barometer of creates a class of rulers, 18 the present Soviet och of rapprochement campaign of glasnost, to not asking for a pay public sentiment in increase any longer, army, with at least between the authori- million of them in the So- ties and the people." maugurate "rapproche- the Soviet Union- nor for a better sup- one-third of the troops asks, "What is the ply of goods to their viet Union. They are an in a state of mutiny. The prince himself ment between the authori- All in all, the czar next stage after shops. They are de- explained his pro- ties and the people. perestroika? Per- manding a removal of occupying army that can- could rely only on gram of reform, ev- strelka" (shootout). the Communist Party not be forced to withdraw. some 60,000 Cossacks, ery word of which Every day Yuri from power, and fair three divisions of gen- would have been endorsed by Mikhail Gor- Shatalin, the three-star general in charge darmes and a few and free elections. bachev, as a desire "for broad progress, at of the Internal Troops, receives several re- regiments of Imperial Guards. No historical analogy could be SO com- least to the extent that this is not Incom- quests from local, district and regional au- By contrast, apart from the army, the plete as to offer us a timetable. The Rus- patible with the existing order." thorities begging him to send them his Soviet authorities have at their disposal sian winter may even cool down this fire, Like all policemen-turned-reformers, men. At least- 21,000 of them are already 230,000 KGB troops (a Soviet version of at least for a while. But as in 1905, the peo- past and present, Svyatopolk-Mirsky was deployed in the hottest spots of unrest in the Waffen SS equipped with tanks, heli- ple and the regime are on a collision immediately acclaimed in the, Western Central Asia and the Caucasus. Like his copters, artillery and planes, aimed at course. To the leadership, glasnost and press as a liberal. The Russian people, predecessors 84 years ago, Gen. Shatalin dealing with a military mutiny 340,000 however, had a completely different idea perestroika signal a change of policy, de- knows that there are not enough troops to Internal Troops; special elite units like the of progress. Encouraged by glasnost, a signed to save the system. To the people, protect every district, and that sending 30,000 Spetsnaz; 70,000 paratroops; two di- they are a chance to change the system. conference of representatives from the ru- small detachments to every town and vil- visions of Marines and a few particularly ral councils, meeting with the prince's per- lage, where they will be easy targets for The West may still think of Mr. Gorba- trusted Guards divisions. In total, 750,000 mission, adopted a resolution clearly "in- propaganda or bullets, is hardly a solution. chev as a liberal reformer. To his people, highly reliable fighting men. The popula- compatible with the existing order.' In So, as in 1905, most of those requests are however, he is just another party boss in tion has only doubled since 1905, but the re- short, they demanded a constitution and a denied. "It is not our task to disperse charge of the state machine responsible for pressive apparatus has increased eight parliamentary democracy. peaceful demonstrations, or to fight with their misery. The fact that economic ne- times. Although newspapers were promptly strikers and criminals,' the general has cessity forced him to Introduce certain re- The Soviets have techniques and equip- forbidden to print or discuss the confer- argued in the Moscow News. forms could make no people grateful for ment-tanks, planes, helicopters-un- ence resolution, the public perceived it as The glamour of history very often dis- very long. A crack in the prison wall is al- thought of In 1905. Nor are there well-or- an opportunity for change: After all, the torts our perception, turning events of the ways perceived by a prisoner as an oppor- ganized revolutionary parties in Russia conference was officially sanctioned. There past into something bigger than reality. tunity to escape, not as an improvement in today, as there were 84 years ago. Above followed a season of banquets, declara- But which feature of the 1905 events cannot the ventilation. all, we should bear in mind that the major- tions, protests, petitions and manifesta- be seen at present? ity of the Soviet people, who have lived tions, in which all sorts of corporations and Anyway, where is the reform? After The humiliating through past terrors, will be easily scared associations expressed their support for four years of frantic defeat in the war with Into submission. This is why it is realistic the resolution. Japan In 1904-1905, a To Soviet leaders, glas- activity, known to the to compare the present Soviet crisis with Meanwhile, excitement spread into the bedazzled world as war that revealed the streets in the form of student demonstra- czarist government's nost and perestroika are 1905, and not with 1917. In Lenin's words, perestroika; the So- this is just a "dress rehearsal.' tions and popular processions that the lib- designed to save the sys- viet economy has be- bureaucratic incom- 1917 Too eral prince had to disperse with the help of come even less pro- petence and callous the Cossacks. On Jan. 9, 1905, a huge pro- disregard for human tem. To the people, they ductive, the budget But there will be a 1917 too. The present deficit has swelled, Sovlet crisis is far more grave than any cession of workers went to the Winter Pal- life, is comparable to ace to present their petition, with icons and are a chance to change the the lines outside the thing known in Russian history. If any- the Soviet adventure prayers, to Czar Nicholas II. The soldiers shops are longer, the thing, the Russian economy was growing in Afghanistan. Even system. opened fire, killing hundreds. goods' are scarcer. too fast at the turn of the century, causing if the latter was not a Clearly, the socio-political problems and challenging Bloody Sunday military defeat, it affected public morale half-measures of Mr. Gorbachev's cele- the outdated autocracy. The Soviet econ- After this episode, known to history as in exactly the same way. brated reforms, his New Deal aimed at omy, on the contrary, is rapidly declining. "Bloody Sunday,' the government and the We have not seen yet a "Bloody Sun- salvaging socialism; have failed to Incite This alone is going to provide a constant people were clearly on a collision course. day" in Moscow, but the slaughter in Tbi- the popular enthusiasm needed to Improve source of unrest, not to mention growing Protests and riots, strikes and mutiny in lisi last spring took a comparable number economic performance. national movements in the republics. the army and navy continued throughout of casualties. At least the czar did not use chemical weapons against his people. In However, what was not enough for eco- Still, destroying the "framework of SO the year, culminating in the All-Russia Po- any case, we might yet see such an event nomic revival is proving to be too much for clalism" will be no easy task. Unlike an litical Strike in the middle of October. Moscow. The Chinese reformers did not political survival. The Sovlet empire is in autocracy, where the ruling elite tainted Even. after frightened czar granted a turmoil. From the Baltic Sea to the Cauca- by the regime's crimes is tiny, a totalitar- kind of constitution (the Manifesto of hesitate to shoot students in front of the stan mountains, and from the Danube, to lan regime creates a whole class of rulers, Oct. 17th) and a kind of a parliament (the television cameras. Why should their So- 18 million of them in the Soviet Union, who (viet comrades more camera-shy? Siberia, former "captive nations") are ris- Duma), the unrest continued. Nationalities are incapable of any other social function. There is even Soviet equivalent of the ing up, to demand their national independ- wanted Independence; peasants; land; Black Hundred, the aptly titled "Pa ence. In: the Soviets Union itself. last They are a state within a state, an occupy- workers, social justice: and all them to myat (Memory which is as anti-Semitic spring's elections restricted ing army that cannot be finished off by a gether. craved revolution: manipu- lated its 1905 counterpart ever as they were,showed Lcoup and cannot be forced to withdraw as clear vote of they have no place to withdraw to. The spirit of mutiny swept the land was, and no sinspired by the secret po- Having freed Itself from inherited lice. The first anti-Jewish pogrom was just Further economic decline is bound to swell This tragic development is by no means fears and imaginary obstacles, the mass reported in Georgia in October: the wave of strikes and to radicalize unique to the Soviet Union. We are witness did not want to, and could not, see the real workers' demands. The people want de- ing an event of truly historic proportions, And the "People's Congress" this spring-was it not in many ways similar to mocracy. Not a "sociallst democracy," not unfolding before our eyes in the entire obstacles in Its path. Therein lay its weak- the first Duma? It certainly was equally "democratization," but democracy. al. world of socialism from Havana to Bel- ness, and also its strength. It rushed for- ward like the ocean tide whipped by a grade and from Warsaw to Peking. To powerless to influence the course of the storm. It was as though someone were By the fall of 1988, the Soviet leaders al- paraphrase Marx, we are witnessing the government's policy. stirring the social cauldron; right to its ready knew that their reforms had falled world-wide crisis of socialism, a crisis But the most spectacular event of the very bottom, with a gigantic spoon. and were preparing to cope with the conse-- whose roots go back to the beginning of 1905, the one which brought the czar to his Workers' strikes, incessant processions, quences. The most radical reforms, such our century, when the wrong choice was knees and forced him to grant a constitu- wreckings of country estates, strikes of po- as the deregulation of prices, were sus- made by so many. As the Russian Prime tion, was the All-Russia Political Strike. Starting as a minor pay dispute in Mos- pended. New restrictive laws were hastily Minister, Count Sergei Witte, wrote in licemen and janitors, and finally unrest Introduced, curbing freedom of public 1905: and mutiny among the soldiers and sailors. cow's printing shops, it quickly spread to meetings, limiting freedom of the press, "One, and perhaps the main reason of our revolution is a delay in the develop- ment of the principle of individualism and, therefore, in the sense of ownership, In the meaning of citizenship, including civil lib- erties. All of these were not allowed to de- velop naturally, and as life pressed on, the people had either to be stifled or to burst this cocoon by force. A bad steam engine is blown up by steam: The choice is either not to increase pressure and, therefore, fall behind, or to modernize the engine while speeding along. The principle of pri- Photocopy-Preservation vate ownership forms today all economic relations; the whole world is based on It.' Mr. Bukousky, the author of "To Build a Castle" (Viking, 1979), is at work on " book about the current Soviet crisis. THE WALL STREET JOURNAL FRIDAY, OCTOBER 18, 1991 The Moderate Democrat's Curse By FRED BARNES tional left and the institutional liberal In- mentalism for scaring away moderate Democratic Sen: Ernest Hollings of terest groups that give money and endorse- Democrats and losing elections. Mr. Clin- South Carolina was hardly a dove. He'd op: ments, says Mike McCurry, the former ton came close to saying this in May. "Too posed both nuclear arms control treaties, spokesman for the Democratic National many of the people who used to vote for SALT I and SALT II. He defended the war Committee. They don't give either to noisy us, the very burdened middle class we re In Vietnam. He endorsed most Pentagon moderates. talking about, have not trusted us in na- spending. But when President Reagan or What's worse for moderates hordes of tional elections to defend our national In- dered the Invasion of Grenada in 1983, Mr. moderate voters have abandoned the Dem- terests abroad, to put their values into our Hollings balked. Instead he asked his staff ocratic primaries. In 1976, 20% of eligible social policy at home; or to take their tax what position he should take. Most urged voters in Florida participated in the Demo: money and spend It with discipline," he him to oppose the invasion, and that's what cratic primary. Jimmy Carter, the moder- said. But he hasn' repeated that lately. He he did. He denounced Mr. Reagan for In- ate alternative that year, won. In 1988, 13% needs to, now that voters are beginning to dulging in "macho politics. voted. Mr. Dukakis, the liberal favorite, listen. Certainly no other Democratic can- This puzzling conduct has a simple ex- won." Some of the missing Democratic didate Is likely to zing the party. planation: He was à Democratic presiden voters have become Republicans. Others National Security. It's crazy for a mod- tial candidate at the time. And he did what have given up on politics. Getting them to erate Democrat to yield this issue. There's moderates invariably do in the heat of a vote in Democratic primaries again no fertile ground to plow to the right of Presi- Democratic presidential race. He ne- easy feat. Mr. Glenn tried to organize dis dent Bush on foreign policy. A moderate glected his moderate base and wooed lib- affected Democrats in the Iowa caucuses Democrat could criticize for failing to eral voters. It didn't work. Mr. Hollings, in 1984. Not many showed up to vote, but oust Saddam Hussein, for cozying up to failed to Inspire moderate voters in the pri- then he didn't give them much reason to: Mikhail Gorbachey while ignoring demo- maries and caucuses, and he didn't get Mr. Babbitt tried again in 1988 and fared cratic leaders like Boris Yeltsin and delay- many liberal votes either, no better. Now Mr. Clinton Is eager to at- ing recognition of the: Baltics, for reck- tract them lessly. cutting America's nuclear arsenal, Ignominious Losses It. can be done, but not by a faint- for being soft on Chinese communists. The hearted moderate who mimics liberals To only Democrat who's worked this angle is The moderate alternative always loses be successful, a moderate must play, up his Mr. Wilder. he backed off after his nowadays. Sometimes the loss Is ignomini- comment about killing Saddam stirred con- ous. Sen. John Glenn of Ohio, the former troversy. Alone among announced Demo- astronaut lionized in "The Right Stuff," Moderates panic in the cratic candidates, Mr. Clinton backed Des- was billed as the moderate Democrat with primaries, hide their iden- ert Storm. That gives him entree to criti- the best shot at winning the 1984 nomina- cize his opponents as isolationists for balk- tion. But, like Mr. Hollings, he concen- trated on pressing liberal buttons (he criti- tity as moderates, and lose ing at the use of force and, later, to go af- ter Mr. Bush. cized the Grenada invasion). He lost the nomination. The badly. Race. Democratic candidates either Despite the disastrous examples of Mr. party's liberal elite domi- steer clear of this sensitive issue or say Glenn and:Mr. Hollings, the moderate al- what the civil rights lobby wants to hear. A nates the nommating ternatives in 1988, Sen. Albert Gore of Ten- Democrat who aggressively questions af- phase, and moderates are firmative action and quotas will be treated nessee and former Gov. Bruce/Babbitt of as a pariah by liberals. But a moderate Arizona, took roughly the same tack and wary of crossing them. candidate who ducks the issue won't be suffered the same result. Now Gov. Bill taken seriously by disaffected Democrats. Clinton of Arkansas Is positioned as the moderate alternative for 1992. He faces the moderate positions relentlessly and use To them, race is critical: Mr. Clinton's cur- them as a weapon against opponents. Lib- rent stance won't win moderates. He dis- temptation to appease the party's liberal, wing: If he does, he'll soon. be history. erals may boo, but that will signal moder- misses the quota flap as a cynical attempt ate voters there's a kindred spirit in the by Mr. Bush to divide white males from What causes moderates to cloak their race. In California, Senate. candidate DI- the Democratic party. Maybe so, but mid- moderate views when seeking the Demo- cratic presidential nomination? It's an im- anne Feinstein was booed by liberal Demo- die-class moderates don't see it that portant question. Because Democrats, crats in 1990 when she endorsed capital way who've lost five of the last six presidential punishment and lauded President Bush's Revulsion Against Welfare elections, desperately need a moderate tough posture against Saddam Hussein. She lost liberal votes, but attracted many Values. Abortion, pornography and the nominee to challenge the Republican can- didate in the Sun Belt and West, where more from moderates. John Anderson got flag don't matter much in the Democratic George Bush, Ronald Reagan and Richard a boost in the 1980 Republican presidential race. Welfare, crime. and the underclass Nixon amassed their electorate majorities. race when he was booed at a forum spon do, Moderate voters are looking for a can- A liberal who suddenly becomes a moder- sored by gun owners. didate who reflects their revulsion. Mr. ate (Walter Mondale, Michael Dukakis) in A moderate should be thrilled If liberal Marshall says he's been shocked by "the violence of feelings" against welfare in the fall isn't credible there. A true moder- activists are angry. That means clear dis focus groups of Democratic voters. In a ate would be. The problem is that moder- tinctions are being drawn-between the moderate and his or her liberal rivals. Of vague way, Mr. Clinton is trying to tap this ates panic in the primaries, hide their course the distinctions have to be ones that by talking up. "personal responsibility.' In identity as moderates, and lose the nomi- appeal to the moderate Democratic elec- announcing his candidacy Oct. 3, he said, nation. How come? "we should insist that people move off wel- They' afraid. The party's liberal elite torate, mostly middle-class whites. Mr. fare rolls and onto work rolls." That's a dominates the nominating phase, and mod- Glenn, Mr. Hollings and Mr. Babbitt start, but he'll have to flesh it out. erates are wary of crossing them. The ac- stressed economic austerity. It wasn't well tivists who take a keen Interest in presi- received. "I haven't seen a market yet for Should all else fall, there's a surefire tough choices, says Stan Greenberg, way to be noticed by disenchanted moder- dential politics, sign up for campaign jobs, Clinton's pollster. Gov, Douglas Wilder of ates: get. in a feud with Jesse Jackson. or show up for candidate events are mostly liberals. Thus there's not much positive Virginia Is running in 1992 as a fiscal con- This thought has crossed Mr. Clinton's feedback for moderate positions. Mr. Holl- servative. That has, little resonance with mind. Even If Mr. Jackson doesn't run, Democratic voters. he still be on the sidelines kibbitzing. To ings got little from his campaign staff. Four clusters of issues are available to white moderates, Mr. Jackson is the sym- Rep. Dave McCurdy of Oklahoma, who bol of all that's wrong with the Democratic briefly considered a 1992 race, got a cool a moderate alternative who pursues a party. But in 1984 and 1988, Mr. Jackson's reception when he gave a moderate pitch strategy of differentiation. Mr. Clinton has foes gave him-a free ride. Mr. Babbitt said to the Democratic National Committee last touched vaguely on all of them in recent everyone should lay off Mr. Jackson be- month. An aggressive moderate candidacy speeches. cause "there has been so much racism in would make liberals furious. Moderates The Party. Disaffected Democrats are this society. A moderate alternative who have been unwilling to risk that looking for a sign that they weren't wrong treats Mr. Jackson like that will lose every The nomination process is stacked in rejecting Democrats in four of the last time. against the moderate candidate who sticks five presidential elections, says Will Mar to his guns. The important thing is early shall of the Progressive Policy Institute, momentum and it comes from collecting moderate Democratic think tank This can Mr. Barnes covers the White House for endorsements and money. "It's the Institu- be telegraphed by blaming liberal funda The New Republic: Photocopy-Preservation THE WALL STREET JOURNAL FRIDAY; JULY 21, 1989 Who Needs Peace in the Middle East? By IRVING KRISTOL connection than do the other Arab and Saúdi Arabia, while-formally endorsing a Whom the gods would destroy, they first lamic nations. Palestinian state butchaving no desire for make mad. Whom the gods would make A strong case can be made that the Im another war. with Israel, have kept the mad, they first inflame with the ambition portance the U.S. attaches to these three PLQ at arm's length, It is no accident that to bring peace to the Middle East. For countries, and the degree to which they are PLO headquarters in far off Tunis, not years now, both the State Department and allowed to influence official thinking on the Cairo, and that when the PLO has its con- White House have been suffering acutely Middle East; is an Instance of the tall ventions they take place in Mo- from such an inflammation. ging the dog. True, Saudi Arabia is an oil rocco. Somehow or other, the U.S. foreign pol- rich land and merits respectful attention. It is perhaps. as well, therefore, tcy establishment has become convinced- But it is no longer a cash country as that there is possibility of a negotiated and has convinced the media-that the key oil prices (in real terms have come down Israeli alestinian/peace settlement which to peace in the Middle East is to be found drastically, and It has a papier mache re: could be only a guaranteed prelude to a In a resolution 'of the Israell Palestinian gime that could be blown away tomorrow. war that might convulse the entire Middle conflict. Why do they believe this when the Egypt has the potential to become East. Israel will never yield East Jerusa- evidence of their senses refutes It? After portant and, within the region, powerf which Arab majority but also all, the bloody civil war between Arabs country, but it seems utterly incapable of includes all the holy places, to the Pales- that is ravishing Lebanon has nothing realizing a fraction of this potential. As for tinians (or anyone else At the same time, whatsoever to do with the Palestinian con- Jordan, its very survival Is'a daily mira no Arab leader, Palestinian or otherwise, flict. Moreover, there are clear signs that cle. would dare envisage Palestinian state Syria's involvement in the Lebanon mess It is fair to say that, even if some kind without East Jerusalem its! capital. could lead to a war with Iraq, which will of Israeli Palestinian agreement could be Moreover, eyen they'doves in Israel fore- not tolerate President Haffez Assad's de- see the necessity of an eventual Madjust- sign for a greater Syria that incorporates Lebanon. Or it could lead to a war with Is- Board of Contributors ment for security reasons, in Israel's borders while no Palestinian leader could rael, since such a greater Syria, restored sign a treaty that legalized-any such "ad- to its pre-World War I boundaries, would justment also include all of Palestine. Even if some kind of Is The State Department has staked its Destroy Israel raeli-Palestinian agreement reputation being a mediator In circum- stances where active mediation leads only, In fact, the three most powerful Islamic states In the region-Syria, Iraq and Iran- could be reached, the situd and quickly, to a dead end, Watchful walt Ing would make much sense. have told the world, in no uncertain terms, tion of Egypt, Saudi Arabia This is not to deny that the current situ- that one of their major foreign policy goals Is the destruction of Israel. None of these and Jordan would not much ation on the West Bank is tragic in human terms, and pointless in political terms. Is states has ever evinced the slightest Inter- est in the question of a Palestinian state on improve, and might worsen. rael cannot hope to repress the intifada in- definitely while waiting for a "moderate" the tiny sliver of territory we call the West reached, the situation of these three coun- Palestinian leadership to emerge. It won't Bank. Nor have they ever shown any Inter- tries would not much improve, and might emerge because? prompt assassination est in the fate of the Palestinian Arabs, a tiny population that could never play a role even much worsen: Popular opinion would would be its fate. Most Israells understand be temporarily assuaged. But Jordan this by now, but public (opinion In Israel in the power politics of the Middle East. So how could there be an Israel-Arab "peace would probably be absorbed into a Pales- with regard to the West Bank is so divided, tinian state-It already has a Palestinian so far from-anything even resembling a settlement" in the region that excludes majority-while the Saudis and Egyptians consensus, that no coherent policy is avail- those three Moslem states? They would never sign any such treaty, they would not would find their relations with Israel and able to its government. be bound by any such treaty, they would the U.S. at the mercy of a Palestinian state A Settlement of Sorts contemptuously ignore any such treaty. whose volatile politics would of necessity, Now, the State Department actually and to a large degree, be shaped by irre- Pronically, one can discern in Israel the dentist passions. emergence of an Idea, appealing to many does know all this-knows that a settle- This irredentist dynamic is built into hawks land "doves allke, for an Israell ment of the Israel-Palestinian conflict is of Palestinian realities. The million or so Pal- initiative that would bring about a settle- marginal significance and has preclous lit- estinian refugees-by now mainly children ment of sorts, although not a peaceful set- tle to do with "peace in the Middle East. and grandchildren of the originalarefu- tlement, This involves Israel drawing a But It is led to focus on this issue, to the line down the West Bank that would delin- gees-did not come from the West Bank, exclusion of almost all others, because there are three Arab countries for which it have no family connections on the West eate the slice of territory important to its Bank, have no memories of the West Bank. national security, annexing that territory is Indeed an important matter. They are Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. These The "homeland" of which they dream is soutright, and thenswithdrawing from the the part of Palestine that is now Israels rest of the West Bank, leaving It to its own are the only Arab nations that have rela- tively friendly relations with the U.S., and is a homeland that has real cities-Jerusa (presumably chaotic destiny lem, Jaffa, Haifa, Acre-and green pas Israel would then cope with West Bank the State Department treasures them as its "assets" in the region, though "client tures In Galllee, as against the dusty, rus turmoll as it copes with the turmoil in Leb- states" would be more accurate. tic towns and villages of the West Bank anon. The Israelis may well prefer this to surrounded by arid scrubland. During the the futile policing of an occupied territory These nations are either too small and 20 years that Jordan occupied the West The State Department would be outraged- weak (Jordan and Saudi Arabia) or too as would the ultra nationalist sector of Is Bank, prior to the -1967 war, It never OC geographically removed (Egypi) to play a curred to anyone that this area might be raell opinion-at being presented with such major role In Middle Eastern affairs. But a suitable homeland for the Palestinians fait accompli,which is why Israell lead- they all abut (in the case of Saudi Arabia, ers are loath eyen to contemplate the or the site of a Palestinian state almost) on Palestine, have large numbers So it is not surprising that most Israelis Idea The Middle East, however, con- of Palestinian refugees, and have popula- take it for granted that a Palestinian state stantly being shaped and reshaped by falts tions that do care; far more than their gov- accomplist could happen once again. on the West Bank, so far from representing ernments care, about what Is happening on a "peace settlement," would be but a pre: the West Bank. They care especially about liminary stage in an ever-intensifying con Kristol, an American Enterprise In- the holy city of Jerusalem, with which they flict with Israel. Nor is It surprising that stitute fellow, co-edits The Public Interest have a more intimate and more heartfelt the governments of Egypt, Jordan and and publishes National Interest Photocopy-Preservation PATRICK BUCHANAN The new serve divisions suggested m an are sometimes known as "cadre" divi- sions. Crackup of the conservatives The idea of such partly manned units is part of a larger proposal advanced by Mr. Wolfowitz as a basis for building up forces in a crisis. The broader plan calls for storing equipment from dis- argues, have been co-opted by neo- tive Lane Kirkland of the AFL-CIO mantled units and retaining officers ell before Old Dutch cons the same way liberals co-opted In 1988, Olin gave a three-year gran who could train and lead if It became W rode off into the sunset, the movement he had led Like the fleas who the great foundation of Henry Ford. of $376,000 to Irving Kristol. necessary. Who is fed the tax-free dollars? Who is being cut out? "The Old Some elements of the plan have to power in 1980 had be- conclude they are American Spectator, writes Mr. Right Fund for American Studies, drawn sharp criticism from the serv- gun to break apart. A first, deep fissure surfaced in Gottfried, gets $450,000 a year. The the National Humanities Institute, ices. Pentagon officials said final deci- steering the dog, the New Criterion got $150,000 in 1989 [James] Taylor's Young Americans sions on important elements will not be '81 when respected Old Right reached by Mr. Cheney until the com- scholar M.E. Bradford was savaged neo-cons' relationship from Scaife and gets annual grants Foundation, the Conservative Cau- manders in the field and the Joint of $100,000 from Olin. The Free Con- cus of Howard Phillips and even the Chiefs of Staff meet later this month by neo-conservatives because he stood in the path of one of their own, to the movement has gress Foundation receives "hun- black conservative Lincoln Institute and studies are completed on issues dreds of thousands of dollars yearly whose leader Jay Parker dared to like the proper mix of active and re- then-Democrat Bill Bennett, who wanted to take over that cornucopia always been from the Bradley and Olin Founda- dress down Jack Kemp] have all serve forces. of academic prestige and pork, the parasitical. tions.' In even greater amount been deemed unfit for funding." One point of contention revolves National Endowment for the Hu- from Bradley, Olin and Smith- As a tiny handful of neo-cons now around the possibility, raised in delib- manities. Richardson goes to the Institute for control the money spigot of the erations on the plan, that the United Educational Affairs. American Right, who are they, and States would modify its longstanding There were other collisions - policy of keeping some aircraft carri- sary, to restore their movement to its "In late 1988 Bradley conferred what do they believe? over money, issues and power (most ers constantly stationed near areas of first principles. $475,000 on the James Madison Cen- Ex-Great Society liberals, almost of which the neo-cons won). But potential conflict. The United States their tactics - including the smear- Written by Politics Professor ter; which was subsequently incor- all of them, they support the welfare could deploy other types of vessels in Paul Gottfried of Elizabethtown Col- porated into I.E.A. The center was state and Big Government. They are some areas where carriers have tradi- ing of opponents as racists, nativ- ists, fascists and anti-Semites - left lege, the piece, "Scrambling for organized as a forum for William pro-civil rights and affirmative ac- tionally operated and develop plans to many conservatives wondering if we Funds," appears in the March issue Bennett, who, together with Jack tion, though anti-quota. They are "surge" carriers to trouble spots in a hadn't made a terrible mistake when of RRR, the Rothbard-Rockwell Re- Kemp, has emerged as one of the pro-foreignaid especially for Israel. crisis. port (a monthly put out by the Center two preferred presidential candi- They favor higher immigration quo- Mr. Wolfowitz and General Powell we brought these ideological va- grants in off the street and gave for Libertarian Studies, of Burlin- dates of the rieo-conservatives" tas, and some demand open borders. have reportedly raised the question of them a warm place by the fire. game, Calif.). Mr. Gottfried doc- Mr. Gottfried has names, dollars, Many are viscerally hostile to the reducing the Navy to 11 deployable air- Last week, a piece arrived sug- uments the capture of the four big dates, of who got what, when. Old Right, and to any America First craft carriers as part of a minimal gesting that the Old Right and its conservative foundations by neo-con Other big beneficiaries of the foreign policy. They want to use Navy force. The fleet of 11 carriers staffers who are steering $30 million four sisters: Hudson Institute; Mi- America's wealth to promote "global would not include a carrier used for allies have had it, that they are ready to hang out the dirty linen, if neces- a year to front groups, magazines, chael Novak's Crisis," Richard John democracy" abroad and impose training and another that is usually in Neuhaus' "First Things," and the Na- "democratic values" in our public overhaul. scholars and policy institutes who toe their party line. The "four sis- tional Endowment for Democracy, schools. The Navy has complaining that such Patrick Buchanan is a nationally ters" - Olin, Scaife, Bradley and two-thirds of whose budget is syndicated columnist. Smith-Richardson foundations he handed over to that great conserva- see BUCHANAN, page G4 Photocopy-Preservation THE WASHINGTON POST THURSDAY, JANUARY 4, 1990 A27 2) THE U.S. INVASION OF PANAMA Panamanians Celebrate in Streets Over News of Noriega's Flight PANAMA, From A1 plexion, and became a banned op- First Vice President Arias Cal- position symbol. deron said Armijo had offered to re- that the Panamanian government NUNCA Bare-chested boys dodged sign after the government "obtained was "knowledgeable that the deal through standstill traffic, swigging information related to his personal was going down." He said he be- from champagne bottles and finances." He said the difficulty was lieved that no representative of the screaming their heads off. Every fa- Panamanian government was unrelated to the Security Force but ther seemed to be carrying a child refused to elaborate. Armijo's sec- present when Noriega surrendered aloft. One man yelled repeatedly, to U.S. soldiers. ond-in-command, Lt. Col. Eduardo "Progress! Liberty! Happiness! We Thurman praised Papal Nuncio Herrera Hassan, was named to re- are free!" Jose Sebastian Laboa as "extraor- place him. Earlier today, more than 10,000 dinarily competent," saying he has Endara chose Armijo to build a Panamanians rallied outside the performed "Herculean work." First new national security force Dec. 26, Vatican embassy demanding that six days after the U.S. invasion CRIMENESTY Vice President Ricardo Arias Cal- Noriega be turned over to the Unit- deron said, "We owe a great debt to routed Noriega's Panama Defense ed States. Laboa. His work resulted in peace." "Justice! Justice! Justice!" and Forces, which performed police Second Vice President Guillermo "Assassin!" chanted the people, functions. The choice of Armijo was Ford also said Noriega had decided shaking their fists and waving flags. widely criticized because of his long of his own accord to turn himself Most of the demonstrators wore service under both Noriega and one over to U.S. forces. "There weren't white, the trademark of opposition of his predecessors, Gen. Omar any conditions," Ford told a local to Noriega when he was in power. Torrijos. REUTER television interviewer. "He did it all The crowd, estimated to range Endara defended Armijo as the Panamanians hold signs saying "Asylum, No!" and "Never Again" in anti-Noriega protest before Noriega's arrest. voluntarily." from 10,000 to 20,000 demonstra- top PDF official thought to have Shortly after 9:00 p.m, two Black tors, stretched for more than a mile been free of corruption after those down Balboa Avenue as it curved above him fled or were arrested. Eagleburger, who characterized he steered clear of estimates of how Hawk helicopters touched down in a to help house Chorrillo's displaced sports field adjacent to the Vatican Herrara Hassan is a former Pan- his delegation's visit as a fact-finding much U.S. aid it would take to get. residents temporarily and to clean up along Panama Bay. mission, said in a statement: "We are embassy. Videotape taken by Hundreds of demonstrators at amanian ambassador to Israel. He the country's troubled economy go- damage caused by the fires. American news networks stationed bullish on the Panamanian economy, ing again. Panamanian Second Vice Pres- one point got past small barricades was cashiered from the army by Noriega in April 1988, ostensibly and we are going to spread the word He added, however, that the Unit- ident Ford has estimated the coun- on the balconies of a high-rise hotel erected by U.S. troops between the on our return to the U.S. that there ed States has "great sympathy" for across the street showed four men for disobeying orders. However, it try's immediate economic needs at marchers and the embassy, running leaving the embassy accompanied are great opportunities here for for- Panamanians who lost their homes in between $700 million and $3 bil- a half-block until they encountered was reported that Noriega sus- eign investment." the U.S. invasion, and mentioned by at least eight U.S. soldiers. concertina wire and a line of U.S. pected Herrara Hassan of leading a lion. Other estimates put it at $1.5 He said the new Endara admin- The groups divided into two and that he had discussed rebuilding billion. soldiers. plot to overthrow him. Herrara boarded the aircraft, which then istration had pledged to rebuild Chorrillo, a neighborhood largely de- Ford reportedly told the Eagle- Also today, the new government Hassan is the nephew of Torrijos. Panama by promoting private en- took off without lights. The helicop- stroyed in fighting around Noriega's of President Guillermo Endara ac- Three U.S. senators and a high- burger delegation that Panama terprise and with little government former headquarters and in fires al- ters were visible across the brightly ranking team of U.S. diplomats and would work to eliminate drug traf- cepted the resignation of Lt. Col. interference. lit urban skyline as they flew in the legedly set by members of Noriega's Roberto Armijo, who had been the economic officials led by Deputy ficking, for which the United States While Eagleburger promised that civilian Dignity Battalions. direction of Howard Air Base, controversial head of the new Pan- Secretary of State Lawrence Eagle- indicted Noriega. the United States would be "active- An official for the Agency for In- which is located on the outskirts of amanian Security Force for just burger met with Panamanian gov- ly involved" and "cooperating very ternational Development said that Correspondent Lee Hockstader the capital near the Panama Canal. eight days. ernment officials today. closely" with the new government, AID had already provided $550,000 contributed to this report. Asked how he felt about seeing Noriega in U.S. custody, Gen. Thurman said, "My mood was, a job well done by the troops who have come down here." Photocopy-Preservation Roadblocks around the Vatican embassy, where Noriega took ref- uge Christmas Eve, became giant party spots, with champagne and American flags in abundance. White fireworks burst in the air. "I am so happy. I feel democracy inside me," said Max Amar, 20, who works in a candy shop and lives in the Paitilla neighborhood close to the Vatican embassy. Throughout the city, teenagers jumped in their cars and, hanging out of the windows, shouted and waved white flags, a symbol of pop- ular opposition to Noriega. U.S. troops tried to control traf- fic and, while some celebrated, most seemed subdued with all the commotion. "To them it's every- thing, to us it's just a battle," said one soldier sitting on the grass watching the festivities. When the news broke, much of Panama City: was finishing dinner and heading home in time for the 11 p.m. curfew that has been in effect since last weekend, but the street party appeared likely to continue most of the night. We really kicked his ass," shouted one U.S. Marine above the clamor as the crowd danced around him on 50th Street, the prime av- enue for political protest against Noriega over the past two years. "Will your troops leave now?" asked one of the hundreds of pas- sengers leaning out of the column of automobiles honking their way along 50th Street. "I hope not. We don't trust our own." "There are a lot of women to- night with green faces," said Cpl. Robin Hicks, 28, of Southern Cal- ifornia, referring to the facial cam- ouflage makeup he had just donated to a woman's ecstatic kiss. "I'm awed. This is something I can tell my kid, who's going to be born this year." All around, people chanted a Spanish rhyme: "Soldier, friend, the people are with you." Flags bearing the message "Just Cause," the code name of the U.S. invasion, were flapped by hundreds Photocopy-Preservation of Panamanians as they rode, walked and cycled down main av- enues of the city. One resourceful Panamanian pulled all his windshield wipers away from the glass to hold white banners, which waved back and forth. Not everyone was on the streets celebrating, however. Ricardo Her- rera, 45, a taxi driver, stood scowl- ing on a side street, watching the party. "I wanted to see him dead," he said, referring to Noriega. "Jus- tice would have been to murder him. He was such a coward. He was very macho to the Panamanian peo- ple with his Dignity Battalions, but now. he can't hurt the people any- more." One tall American held aloft a flagpole on which was tied both a U.S. and Panamanian flag. He was surrounded by Panamanians chant- ing, Gracias a Dios" Thank God. One man called a radio talk show to call Noriega a bastard. The host said, "Well, normally we don't let that sort of thing on the radio, but tonight we'll let it go." Asked. what the news meant to him, one man said, "It means now you can eat pineapple. I haven't eaten pineapple for two years." Pineapple was Noriega's nickname because of his pockmarked com- JOHN NORTON MOORE For more will intensify. It is to be hoped that such a debate will be overtaken by events as Saddam Hussein pulls out of Kuwait and complies fully with than one Security Council resolutions. If not, however, we must not forget that the crisis is about far more than the tak- ing of hostages. reason In considering the case for effec- tive action against Mr. Hussein, it is an illusion to believe that there must be a single reason for such action. he Security Council "pause T The sport of citing differing reasons of goodwill to allow Iraq given by the Bush administration as one final opportunity" to though this proves there is no valid comply fully with all rel- basis may be good political theater, evant resolutions in the Gulf crisis, butlit is both bad logic and poten- as embodied in Resolution 678 of tially harmful to rational appraisal. Nov. 29, will end in just four weeks The Gulf crisis is a compelling on Jan. 15. case precisely because there are so It seems likely that with the ap- many re-enforcing reasons for ac- proach of this deadline, the release tion in a unique setting. Moreover, of hostages, a reciprocal exchange for those willing to listen, the admin- of foreign ministers and the conven- istration has repeatedly given an im- ing in early January of the 102nd portant range of reasons for the ac- Congress, the national debate about tion, most recently in President appropriate action in the Gulf crisis Bush's Nov. 30 address to the nation. Paradoxically, the most impor- John Norton Moore is Walter L. tant reason for effective action is Brown Professor of Law and director precisely that mankind must take ef- of the Center for National Security fective action to end aggressive war, Law at the University of Virginia He and we now have one of the best formerly was counselor on interna- chances in human history to work tional law to the State Department against aggression. Aggressive war, and was a United States ambassa- dor. see MOORE, page G4 Photocopy-Preservation PAGE TUESDAY, DECEMBER 18, 1990 MOORE From page G1 as condemned by the U.N. Charter, is an outrage, and it is time to end it. We must not think of war as an inevi- table part of the human condition against which mankind is forever helpless: Like slavery before it, ag- gressive war can and will be ended. Collective security as currently embodied in the U:N. Charter is po- tentially one of the most important mechanisms for ending such war. If collective security can be made to It also is relevant that Iraq is cur- work in a new era of East-West coop- rently. a beacon to terrorists - at- eration, we will truly have be- tracting some of the most extreme queathed something worthwhile to elements from all over the Middle the next generation. If it cannot, in a East. In its global dimension, citi- case as blatant as the Iraqi blitzkrieg zens of more than 84 nations were against Kuwait, then a hope for the victims of international terrorist peace supported by generations of attacks in 1988, resulting in almost world leaders will be dead. casualties. As if these world On Nov. 29, for only the second order concerns are not enough, Mr. time in the history of organized ef- Hussein has blatantly flouted impor- forts at collective security, and only tant international firebreaks against the first time for an action supported the first use of lethal chemical weap- by both East and West, the Security ons. and, production of biological Council authorized nations to "use weapons, and it is widely reported all necessary means," including the that he is working both on nuclear use of force, to ensure the defense of weapons and on means of delivering Kuwait against an outrageous ag- weapons of mass destruction. gression. It will be a tragedy of his- Quite apart, from the central toric proportions, as great as the world order concerns at stake in the American failure to join the League Gulf crisis, Mr. Hussein's actions, if of Nations, if a self-proclaimed unchecked, will forever end the self- "anti-war" movement or a well- determination rights of the people of meaning faction of Congress under- Kuwait. mines this opportunity for strength- As for the rule of law, Mr. Hus- ening collective security and sein's actions openly flout the most building a new world order across important fundamentals of the in- East and West based on the rule of ternational system: the prohibition law.: against aggressive attack - the ob- Beyond collective security ligation to adhere to 12 binding Secu- through the rity Council resolutions that were United Nations, adopted under Chapter VII of the aggressive war U.N. Charter in accordance with the can be reduced by Security Council's core responsibil- an climate ity for the maintenance of interna- of deterrence tional peace; the protection of hu- against extremist man rights; the prohibitions against regimes that are terrorism and hostage taking; sol- willing to use emn obligations of the Geneva Con- force aggres. ventions concerning protection of ci- sively against vilian populations; arms control and their neighbors. law. of war treaty obligations; and Systemic deter- treaty obligations concerning the rence depends on protection of diplomats and the dip- a totality of effective community law, lomatic process. politics, economic, military power Importantly, if we are to continue and perceived will that changes the to have difficulty in our national de- cost-benefit equation for a potential bates in understanding the crucial aggressor. difference between force used ag- Establishing an effective interna- gressively and force used defen- tional climate of deterrence against sively, then, because we treat ag- aggression is not merely a theoreti- gressive attack and defensive cal construct. It is one of the prereq- response the same, we will both have uisites for peace, not just in our time killed the most important underpin- but also in this world. And, paradox- ning of the rule of law between na- ically, establishing a. climate in tions and have reduced the deterrent which Mr. Hussein knows effective effect of law nearly to nothing. action will be taken may be the fast- The Gulf crisis also presents a est way to secure his compliance with Security Council directives and avoid a wider war. Indeed, this is the judgment of the U.N. Security Coun- cil. The Gulf crisis presents addi- tional reasons why world order is centrally at stake. One of the true evils in the international system is the seizure of innocent civilians as hostages. In both numbers seized and levels of cynical manipulation before their ultimate release, the Iraqi seizure and timed release of thousands of international hostages in an effort to prevent a community response to its aggression reached a new low. In addition, Mr. Hussein has now commenced two wars of aggression. His first war against Iran may have killed as many as 1 million people. If he is not stopped, there is a real - not just imagined - possibility that Mr. Hussein will carry out further attacks, as he has repeatedly threat- ened. Photocopy-Preservation very real issue of American resolve and credibility in international rela- ] tions generally and toward its com- mitment to an effective United Na- tions specifically. While arguments - about American credibility have sometimes been overdone, cred- ibility is genuinely at stake when the United States has taken the lead W against a brutal international ag- gression and has led the Security n Council to authorize the use of "all n necessary means" to secure the W withdrawal of Iraq from Kuwait and C Whether we like it or not, oil is the fla end the crisis. After providing such e leadership, if the United States itself most important commodity in world h trade. The issue is not, as sometimes ap backs away as a result of a pro- tracted domestic debate, it will be ji popularly presented in the debate, C W far more difficult for this nation or one of oil company profits or Amer- f ican consumption of oil. The issue is rt any nation to take the lead against c aggression in the future. nothing less than global economic p f The record shows that this point health for a period measured in p € of national credibility in our com- years, not months. T t mitment to the United Nations was i To an extent not properly appre- f ciated, the global economy - not 1 fully understood by members of § just the American economy. - has ( Congress as they debated the t Participation Act in 1945. Thus, Sen. been put on hold while the world - 1 ( Robert Taft, a tough advocate of con- awaits resolution of the Gulf crisis., gressional prerogative, said during A prolonged crisis or one that re- S \ the debate on the act: "I want to sults in even a partial victory for Mr. c S make it clear that I am wholly in Hussein may have cruel, lasting and t favor of giving authority to the Secu- potentially disastrous impacts on 1 rity Council to use armed force, per- the whole world economy, which is ] j mitting its use without references to already weakened by two previous 1 1. Congress." And again: oil shocks. Through time, of course, I t if a Saddam Hussein drives the price I "I have always felt that the crucial il point of action on the part of the I of oil too high, such a price will bring ( United States was when our repre- about its own decline. But the time ( n for such a decline is measured in I sentative voted on the Security a Council at the direction of either the fi years, and the damage to the global i economy in the meantime will be f president or the Congress. Once the d vote is cast, it seems to me we are in substantial and a permanent loss for tl duty bound, under the Charter, to go all mankind. ( And, we should recall, the first C ahead with the armed forces which to and second oil price shocks particu- S the senator is discussing." Similarly, in seeking to establish a larly cruelly affected developing na- n legal structure tions. This time, in an ironic twist of c G that would avoid fate, the economic cost of a third oil el shock also will be borne heavily by d undermining Se- m curity Council de- the emerging democracies in East- C( cisions made with ern Europe, and the crisis will cer U.S. approval, the tainly exacerbate Soviet economic el Senate Foreign - problems at a time of hopeful C Relations Com- change. mittee and the An outside observer not privy to House Foreign full information on the effect of eco- Affairs Commit- nomic and other potential sanctions F tee both quoted in against Mr. Hussein cannot well pre- F1 their reports on dict which combination of measures the U.N. Partici- against Mr. Hussein will be effec- de pation Act a passage from a Senate 1 tive. Certainly, if a war can be m Foreign Relations Committee report avoided, we must make every effort ha ie on the charter: to do so. The clear commitment in th op "Preventive or enforcement ac- the Gulf crisis, however, must be to th tc tion by these forces upon the order effective measures. On this issue, the re p: of the Security Council would not be organized international community sti n- an act of war but would be interna- has taken a stand, and our nation is must not waiver. tional action for the preservation of tl wl the peace and for the purpose of pre- Now is not a time for extended ali n venting war. Consequently, the pro- national debate. It is a time for the la for visions of the Charter do not affect b Congress of the United States to join ca the exclusive power of Congress to the organized international commu- "W c declare war." nity in supporting effective action to ti car ensure that the Security Council res- the While the effect of this congres- olutions on Iraq will be promptly e per sional language concerning the use honored. of earmarked forces is not by itself S) ars decisive in the current war powers d debate, it is clear that the Congress p that initially approved U.S. partici- to pation in the United Nations under- p stood the importance of the United C( States not undercutting Security is Council actions by later divisive con- th gressional debate. ap Finally, while oil is not the central at reason for taking action, to ignore pr the global economic consequences for Photocopy-Preservation of a protected oil crisis is to ignore reality. An Iraq with Kuwait would at control more than one-fifth of total ido world oil reserves, and if Iraq is able se to even marginally intimidate Saudi ge Arabia and the Emirates, with an- tal other one-fifth of world reserves, it cl: could dictate financial terms for a in not inconsiderable future. ol Excerpts From the Remarks of President Bush and ANC Leader Mandela From News Services The United States, committed to the concept of free expectations. That mood expresses the commit- I might just state, in passing, that the methods of Following are excerpts from the remarks of President market and a productive private sector, is ready to do ment of all the people of the United States of America political action which are used by the black people of Bush and African National Congress leader Nelson its part to encourage rapid and peaceful change toward to the struggle for the removal of apartheid. South Africa were determined by the South African Mandela before the two met privately yesterday at the political and economic freedom. We will continue to One thing that is very clear, and it has been made government. As long as the government is prepared to urge American firms that are still doing business in even more clear in the remarks by the president, is that talk, to maintain channels of communication between White House. South Africa to play a progressive role in training and on the question of the removal of apartheid and the in- itself and the governed, there can be no question of vi- President Bush empowering blacks, and building a foundation for future troduction of a non-racial democracy in our country, we olence whatsoever. prosperity. are absolutely unanimous. And this has been a But when a government decides to ban political or- Well, welcome to all of you. And it is a great plea- Our sanctions have been designed to support change. source of great encouragement to our people. ganizations of the oppressed, intensifies oppression, and does not allow any free political activity, no matter how sure, a sincere pleasure, for Barbara and me to wel- And when the conditions laid down in our law have been To receive the support of any government is, in our come to the White House Mr. and Mrs. Mandela-Mr. met, then and only then will we consider, in consulta- situation, something of enormous importance. But to peaceful and nonviolent, then the people have no alter- tion with the Congress, whether a change in course will receive the support of the government of the United native but to resort to violence. Mandela, a man who embodies the hopes of millions promote further progress through peaceful States of America, the leader of the West, is something There is not a single political organization in our negotiations. beyond words. country inside and outside parliament which can ever We meet at a time of transition for South Africa. We Mr. Mandela; you said many years ago, before the If today we are confident that the dream which has compare with the African National Congress in its total applaud the recent steps President de Klerk and the first of your 10,000 days in prison, that there is no easy inspired us all these years is about to be realized, it is in commitment to peace. If we are forced to resort to vi- government of South Africa have taken to expand the walk to freedom. Your years of suffering, your nation's very large measure because of the support we have got olence, it is because we had no other alternative what- rights and freedoms of all South Africans. These are suffering, have borne that out. from the masses of the people of the United States of soever. positive developments, steps toward a fully free and But just as this past year so many millions of people America, and, in particular, from the government and But even in this regard, there have been significant democratic future that we all wish to see for all of the in Eastern Europe and elsewhere tasted freedom, SO from the president. developments, which I hope to brief the president people of South Africa. too South Africa's time will come. As Martin Luther There are very important political developments that on. In order for progress to continue, we must see on all King said on the steps of the Lincoln Memorial: "We have taken place in our country today and it is my in- I am going to urge on the president not to do any- sides a clear commitment to change. All parties must cannot walk alone." Sir, we here in America walk in tention to brief the president as fully as possible on thing without full consultation with the ANC in regard seize the opportunity to move ahead in a spirit of com- solidarity with all the South Africans who seek, through these developments. We are doing so because it is nec- to any initiative which he might propose to take in order promise and tolerance, flexibility and patience. And nonviolent means, democracy, human rights, and free- essary for him to understand not only in broad outline to help the peace process in the country dom. what is happening in our country; he must be furnished Finally, Mr. President, I would like to congratulate from all parties we look for a clear and unequivocal with the details which may not be so available to the you and President Gorbachev for the magnificent ef commitment to negotiations leading to peaceful change. Once again it is a sincere privilege to welcome you to the White House, and may God bless you and all the public, so that the enormous assistance that he has giv- forts that you are making in order to reduce interna- I call on all elements in South African society to re- en us should be related to the actual developments in tional tensions, and to promote peace. nounce the use of violence and armed struggle. Break people of South Africa. Welcome, sir. the country. It is my hope that governments throughout the world free from this cycle of repression and violent reaction Nelson Mandela I will also ask the president to maintain sanctions, will follow your example and attempt to settle problems that breeds nothing but more fear and suffering because it is because of sanctions that such enormous between governments and between governments and Mr. Mandela, in the eyes of millions around the Mr. President, it is an honor and a pleasure for my progress has been made in the attempt to address the dissidents inside each country by peaceful methods, world, you stand against apartheid, against a system wife, my delegation, and I to be welcomed by you. This problems of our country. I will also inform him about You and Comrade Gorbachev have opened a chapter in that bases the rights and freedoms of citizenship on the is a continuation of the rousing welcome which we have developments as far as the armed struggle is con- world history which might well be regarded as a turning color of one's skin. That system is repugnant to the received from the people of New York and Boston, cerned. The remarks that he has made here are due to point in many respects. conscience of men and women everywhere-repugnant black and white the fact that he has not yet got a proper briefing from And here we congratulate you and wish you every , to the ideals that we in America hold so dear That welcome has far exceeded our wildest us. success. Photocopy-Preservation Photocopy-Preservation Mandela, Rejecting Appeal by Bush, Refuses to Renounce Armed Struggle hinted that de Klerk should be re- Some iten from the masses of people of the MANDELA, From A1 United States of America, and in warded with their removal once Mandela by First Lady Barbara particular from the government and negotiations begin. Bush to move the entourage off the from the president," Mandela said. On U.S. aid to the ANC, Mandela lawn and into the Oval Office for the That support, he said, should be pressed both Bush and Baker. Con- predicated on an understanding by meetings. gress: last month approved up to Kool-Aid Bush of the "armed struggle.' Both In welcoming Mandela to the $10 million in aid to groups promot- at the White House and in his news Sweetened, Makes 2 White House, Bush invoked the conference later, Mandela repeated ing democratic institutions in South memory of King to call for an end to that the South African government, Africa. Sharkleberry Fin or the armed/struggle in South Africa, by banning political organizations, The National Endowment for De- quoting the slain civil rights leader imprisoning black political leaders, mocracy (NED), a nonpartisan as saying, Let us not seek to sat- and outlawing free political activity group that helped facilitate elec- Kool-Aid isfy our thirst for freedom by drink- in effect determined the ANC's ap- tions recently in Nicaragua and Sugar Sweetened, Ma ing from the cup of bitterness and proach to the use of violence. elsewhere, is considered the prime hatred." However; White House officials candidate for getting the funds and Mountain Berry Pun With Mandela looking on impas- and Mandela described as near the channeling them to other groups in BY JAMES A. PARCELL-THE WASHINGTON POST sively, Bush praised de Klerk for removal of the last obstacles to talks. Mandela said he is scheduled the form of small grants. NED could President Bush greets ANC leader Nelson Mandela at the White House. steps he has taken and condemned to meet with government officials give grants to organizations helping Kool-Aid apartheid as "repugnant to the ide- on his return to South Africa and in the formation of democracy in Mandela's public support for issues played virtually no role in the als that we in America hold dear." expects issues such as release of South Africa, but the legislation leaders, some of them Marxist, official discussions. Lemonade, Sugar Sw He said when conditions in U.S. law political prisoners will be resolved. requires that such groups agree to drew some criticism in Congress In Congress, Rep. Howard Wolpe have been met by the de Klerk gov- Herman Cohen, an assistant sec- a suspension of violence while ne- and at the White House yesterday. (D-Mich.), a strong supporter of the ernment, the administration "will retary of state, said the Mandela gotiations are occurring. In a session with reporters on Sun- ANC, said of Mandela's statements, consider, in consultation with Con- statements pledging a cessation of Cohen said Mandela's agreement hostilities were welcome, but not day, Mandela criticized U.S. sup- "I wish he had not said those things gress, whether a change in course to a "cessation of hostilities" once port for the non-communist rebels they were not helpful." Kool-Aid will promote further progress." good enough. "We're not supremely obstacles to talks are cleared up. happy," Cohen said, "just partially trying to oust the Marxist govern- Rep. Lawrence J. Smith (D-Fla.), ins Grape, JO Cherry In his response, Mandela blended may well meet the intent of the law. ment in Angola. Cohen said the is- another supporter of sanctions, praise for Bush with suggestions happy." On sanctions, Cohen said Man- "I'm predicting that they will issue sue came up at the White House complained of Mandela: "He comes that the president was not fully in- dela asked that sanctions remain in that statement," he said, and be- and that the president and Mandela here and espouses support, not just formed on the history and reality of place even after negotiations begin. come eligible for some of the NED "agreed to disagree." casual, offhand support, but signif- the ANC struggle to end the rule by Bush, Cohen said, retains his posi- funds. Other State Department of- Mandela"s expressions of support icant support, for people whose Unsweete South Africa's five million whites tion that once the Pretoria govern- ficials were not sure Congress for Cuba's Fidel Castro, Libya's methods and backgrounds are ter- over its 28 million blacks. ment has met the conditions in the would go along with funds going Moammar Gadhafi and the Pales- rorists, outlaws, or communist dic- Sharkleberry Fin or Pur "If today we are confident that sanctions law, discussions on lifting indirectly to what one called "a tine Liberation Organization were tators." the dreams which have inspired us or easing those sanctions will begin movement not a political party, also subjects on which Bush and all these years are about to be re- with Congress. The sanctions were Mandela agree to disagree, officials Staff writers Gwen Ifill and Nora enacted over the veto of then-Pres- and a movement that still embraces alized, it is, in very large measure, said. But officials stressed those Boustany contributed to this report. Unsweeter because of the support we have got ident Ronald Reagan, and Bush has Marxism." Tropical Punch or Cherry, Ma Photocopy-Preservation PAGE F4 / THURSDAY, JUNE 7, 1990 The Washington Times BOOK REVIEW / William F. Gavin ichael Barone's "Our M Country: The Shaping of America from Roo- A land where the sevelt to Reagan," is ambitious in scope, detailed in anal- ysis, forthright in judgment and as entertaining and provocative as it is informative. He believes our coun- individual counts try has been and remains basically decent and resilient, with a great ca- and figures about congressmen, pacity for renewal. after disasters tions "was not SO much between men senators and the 50 states. He mixes and women as it was between mar- such as war and economic depres- and matches information about per- sion. He bases this analysis on "three ried women, who voted much like sonalities, regions, political trends, men, and unmarried women." guiding theses": demographics and social move- The first of these is "[that] in the Mr. Barone approaches his mate- ments to create unique insights and United States, politics more often di- rial from what I would call an idio- dives below the surface of polling vides Americans along cultural than syncratic liberal point of view. His and census data to come up with along economic lines"; secondly, political hero is Franklin Roosevelt and his journalistic beau ideal is The "that in time of war, America, like other countries, tends to choose big- Washington Post's columnist David THESHAPING OUR COUNTRY Broder. He believes government can ger government and cultural uni- THE SHAPING OF AMERICA and ought to do good for people, al- OF formity, while in time of peace, we tend to want smaller government FROM ROOSEVELT TO REAGAN though this 1930s faith is tempered and cultural diversity"; and third, By Michael Barone by a 1980s realism SEVELT Do Americans want big govern- 'that people - individual people the Free Press $29.95, 805 pages But he has written history, not lib ment during wartime and small gov- matter." eral hagiography, and he brings his ernment in peace? Here. the evi- than, passing attention in a book Mr. Barone is no maker of systems critical powers to bear on some left- dence is not as clear. I don't know the about cultural divisions, especially or of occult cyclical explanations of some glistening pearl of interpreta- liberal myths. According to Mr. alternative to some form of big gov- when his own definition of culture tion. historical trends. Anyone who writes Barone, "As the Cold War began, it ernment during wartime, so it may refers to "religious and personal val- Mr. Barone is a political writer for was obvious to many, not just to ues and mores." of "the public's refusal to follow syl- be that instead of getting what we logisms through to their logical con- the microchip age, with an ability to right-wing nuts, that a domestic like, we like what we get. What seems to be lacking is the pack more and more information clusions" and who believes that "no communist threat did exist." In 1945, Do Americans divide more along kind of unifying vision found in Paul election settles everything in Amer- into smaller and smaller spaces. We there were communists in important cultural than economic lines? I am Johnson's Modern Times,' which in ican politics even in the short term" learn that in 1930 payments to veter- posts in the CIO (Congress of Indus- not at all convinced that the evi- certain respects "Our Country" re- understands that politics is neither ans made up one-quarter of the fed- trial Organizations) and "in govern- dence in the book proves Mr. sembles. Whether or not you agreed eral budget; that if Franklin Delano an art nor a science but a mystery. ment." Joe McGiniss' "The Selling of with Mr. Johnson, his firm convic- Barone's thesis (one I happen to be- Roosevelt's percentage of the vote in The author brings to this formida- the President" receives a long over- lieve is correct, nonetheless). He tions about the 20th century inspired 1940 had been reduced by exactly ble task the same methodology he due critical look, and the "counter- presents abundant documentation every page of the book and gave it 3.7 percent in every state, Wendell direction has used so successfully for many culture" of the 1960s is described as about cultural differences but Willkie would have had 306 electoral "economically parasitic and cultur amidst all of the data it was hard for Michael Barone at times appears years as co-author of "The Almanac votes to Roosevelt's 225; that in 1946, ally subversive." me to discover a clear pattern of cul- to be putting on a virtuoso display of of American Politics," that invalu- "the most strike-ridden year in able compendium of analysis, facts Do individuals matter, as Mr. tural, as opposed to economic, divi- astounding skill, doing with data American history," Republicans won Barone claims? On the anecdotal sions. what Glenn Gould did with a piano, 52 percent of the total vote for House and biographical evidence he offers but with little apparent relevance to Moreover, Mr. Barone devotes rel- William F. Gavin is special assis- seats, the only time between 1928 on hundreds of fascinating charac- atively little space to the rise of the his major themes. But, all in all, he tant to House Republican Leader and 1988 they exceeded 50 percent; ters, from Henry Wallace to George religious right during the 1980s, has written a book that deserves and Robert H. Michel. and that the difference in many elec- Wallace, I'd say he's proved his case. surely a topic that deserves more I hope will receive great critical and popular success. ARTS/TE The Washington Dost enry Mitchell on stice, once and for all 2 Style Plus: Why Th dith Krantz's latest epic Style 5 on station call letter ok World: 'Dazzle,' 3 Movies: 'My 20th C a Cannes winner at UNITED STATES WANT ENTRA 39 FOR U.S.AR STA PEACE 19. Dreaming of the Good Fight of Yesteryear Reactions to Gulf Conflict to Kuwait. It was a real war, all right, not some rice- turned the United States and the Soviet Union into paddy reform movement or "police action, And it fit and Vietnam. They were hard to und Through the Lens of WWII allies for the first time since 1945 and provoked the American mold for a good war, a war which were not good wars. Now things wer- George Bush into comparing him to Hitler: there was no doubt who started it, or what we were able again. Bush said: "This will not stand. He sent in Ameri- fighting for; or who were the good guys and who can troops... For a moment, Washington made you By Henry Allen were the bad guys it was a war that could have His approval rating climbed to 82 percent in USA Wayne standing on the bridge of a Wo Washington Post Staff Writer been written by Hollywood, as Van Johnson, who Today poll. Granted, we always rally around the flag, stroyer, barking to his engine room, "( efore the Persian Gulf blew up in August; starred in a lot of World War II movies, says about :but there was something more going on with the Per- thing ya got," and the engine room COI B war in the age of the good war was starting that one in.a documentary called "Going Holly- sian Gulf. in wood-The War Years." the House Majority Leader Richard Geph to look like sex in the age of safe sex-you "It feels like the start of the Second World War, this crisis, we are not Republicans or D wondered if it was possible for Americans to An Arab dictator crushed a small nation, threat said an excited senior State Department official in are only proudly Americans. The presid ive it at all. ened to choke off our: oil supply, took American hos- September. for our support. He has it." (No one tl Then on Aug. 2, Saddam Hussein sent his tanks in- tages, sent his troops looting and raping through Ku- That was "The Good War," as Studs. Terkel titled wait City,/got condemned by the United Nations, but when you counted up the years, it H his oral history, but after the good war came Korea See WAR, D2 Col. TV Preview bags that fall over in the car on the ake Media Notes joining with a p. way home: as irritating as commer- a new downtow. cials for Sports Illustrated magazine his Sons and that air 564 times a day; as irritating an existing on as aspirin bottles that refuse to open when you have a screaming, shriek Going Against skepticism in tl reporters ques paper's dual roi b- Daughters ing headache. Come to think of it, this show IS Convention coverage of the "Conflicts 0: screaming, shrieking headache. It's: drunk driving- Crude Brood one of those adult-sized bangeroos In Providence impaired your ju Robert Urich is always complaining umnist Brian Ji lease about. very little criti The much-delayed premiere, at convention cent By Tom Shales 10 tonight on Channel 9, introduces Washington Post Staff Writer the far-too-innumerable members of By Howard Kurtz anything that ( Washington Post Staff Writer tailed way whet perately Seeking A title like "Sons and Daughters" an overextended family, the yam- project." has a generic ring, doesn't it? But for mering Hammersmiths of Portland, The Providence Journal Co., tak- OP Chairman Ore. Irrepressible Tess (Lucie Ar, ing a giant step beyond mere home- Reporter Joh the new CBS drama series, even has been coveri naz, in under her head) lives with "generic" is too flattering a term. So town boosterism, is using its corpo- one has tried to her adopted Asian daughter Astrid is "competent" or "coherent." rate treasury to shore up the city's ries. But, he said By Joel Achenbach (Michelle Wong), while irrepressible Michelle Wong and Lucio Arnaz in This isn't just bad, it's irritating, ailing convention center project. tain amount of Vashington Post Sulf Writer brother-in-law Spud (Rick Rosso- "Sons and Daughters." as irritating as those plastic grocery The company's front-page an- you're an emplo ick the job with the See TV PREVIEW, D6, Col.3 nouncement came late last month that it is See MEDIA 111 name lowest status: Tollingth Photocopy-Preservation Good War, Bad War WAR, From D1 fore Pearl Harbor roused Americans to fight. If Saddam attacked us-even a provocation War veteran had been president on the brink as small as the blurry fracas that provoked of World War I, or a decorated Spanish- Congress into passing the Tonkin Gulf reso- American War officer had led us in World lution in 1964-national unity might be ours. War II.) Remember Pearl Harbor, the Lusitania, the The U.N. passed resolutions, different Maine, the Alamo. We seem to need cata- lands banding together like the old World lysts. So now Hank Williams Jr. sings a War II movie where the first sergeant asks threatening song addressed to Saddam: for volunteers and he gets O'Hara, Koslow- "Don't Give Us a Reason." So far, he hasn't. ski, Jackson, Shapiro, Andreotti, Garcia. A good war doesn't seem to have much to (Was that movie ever made, or was it just a do with the goodness of our allies, Not only routine for stand-up comics on "The Ed Sulli- was Stalin a butcher out to conquer the van Show?) In a nation dispirited by a budg- world, but he'd been allied with Hitler. The et crisis, collapsing banks and an oncoming Italians fought on both sides in the good war. recession, the Persian Gulf looked like it had So what's a'little medieval autocracy in Saudi every chance of being the kind of war people Arabia? Who cares if our chaplains aren't al- mean when they say, "What we need is a lowed to wear their crosses on their lapels? good war." The good war is not ambiguous or ironic. Then something happened. Or didn't hap- There is no colonel saying, "I love the smell pen. As if World War II were turning into of napaim in the morning," as Robert Duvall Vietnam, a good war into a bad war, from says in "Apocalypse Now." There is no real- "Sands of Iwo Jima". to "Apocalypse Now," life colonel saying, as one actually said at Ben from "Hollywood Canteen" to "China Tre, Vietnam, "We had to destroy the village all of this before the war, has in order to save it" And there are-ho truck- even begun. loads of troopers driving past the press On an episode of "Designing Women" in shouting, "We're not supposed to be here! late November, Charlene talked about her This isn't our warl Why are we here?"-this husband who had been called away by the happened during Bush's Thanksgiving visit military: "I have these fantasies about World to Saudi Arabia. War II and everybody's part of the effort, "If any evidence were needed that force is women bought war bonds and planted victo- not obsolete in the 1990s, Saddam Hussein ry gardens and went without stockings and has provided it," says Bruce W. Jentleson in just drew the lines up the back of their legs' the just-published winter Brookings Review. with eyebrow pencil. Now, I don't do any of But with no Pearl Harbor or Alamo to re- that. I just ramble around my big new house member, the American public has seemed and wait for the mailman. I'm mad at the more comfortable with the idea of defending government, and that's not very patriotic." Saudi Arabia than attacking Iraq when the With hundreds of thousands of armed men tanks first went into Kuwait. staring at each other, there hasn't even been The public had "doubts about offensive a scary overflight or a ship-bumping. Bush military action all along," Jentleson says. says "It's not going to be another Vietnam," "What they had been strongly supportive of but anti-war protesters light their vigil can- was defending Saudi Arabia." A USA Today dles, as much in memory of the bad war of poll on Aug. 9, for instance, showed that 81 Vietnam as in fear of whatever kind of war percent of the public approved of sending the Persian Gulf might be. They sue the ex- troops to Saudi Arabia, while 49 percent ap- ecutive branch. They sign newspaper ads. proved of invading Iraq and only 35 percent Recruiters fail to make their quotas. Con- were in favor of bombing Iraq. Other polls in gress warns of higher taxes, a draft, a divid- August showed similar feelings. ed country. Public approval of Bush's han- Jentleson has studied public reaction to a dling of the crisis slipped from 75 percent in decade of American use or support of force late August to 65 percent a month later, to in Libya, Lebanon, Afghanistan, Nicaragua, 55 percent in November-it took a year of Panama and El Salvador, concluding that massive troop buildup and combat deaths in new concepts of a good war mean that "the Vietnam for Johnson's rating to get that low American public, I contend, is much more in 1966. After Bush proposed talks with likely to support the use of force when it per- Iraq, his showing improved slightly. The ceives the objective as the restraint rather country is divided as to what to do next, the than the remaking of another government." polls say. "It's going to make a lousy movie," Consequently, Jentleson says, "when Pres- says Art Buchwald. ident Bush announced on November 8 a dou- In the cool, pragmatic world of the last 50 bling of U.S. forces to nearly 400,000 troops years, policy makers and strategists haven't and a shift in strategy to insuring 'an ade- thought much about cultural archetypes and quate offensive military option,' the consen- national myths. sus began to crack. Congressional leaders "The president and the people around him became much more critical, public opinion have not been doing a good job, seeing that polls fell sharply and the first teach-ins Central Casting sent us the perfect Arab vil- sprang up on college campuses." lain," says Eliot Cohen, who is both a captain In a good war, we are "innocent, unsus- in the Army Reserve and a professor at the pecting, the underdog, the victim," says Van Johns Hopkins School of Advanced Interna- Johnson. But this means that we're unready tional Studies. Meanwhile, Cohen told the for it, as we were in World War II. In "A House Armed Services Committee, the men- Country Made by War," Geoffrey Perret tal picture that the Iraqis have of the Ameri- writes: "The idea of perennial unreadiness can fighting man is not John Wayne but "the fits the American self-image of a peace- helicopters on the roof of the embassy in Sai- loving people dragged reluctantly into war. gon, and [the bombing of] the Marine bar- Civilians and military men alike find that idea racks in Beirut-Saddam has said as much." appealing. For another thing, it is the stuff of Robert W. Tucker, another SAIS profes- epic drama-the ultimate triumph, after sor (emeritus), argues that the president has near defeat, of good over evil, us over them." done a fine job of making his case, but that The good war is fought with American the public "simply has not responded to it." know-how, ingenuity and industrial might: Michael Viahos, director of the State De- modern cannon from Yankee factories, the partment's Center for the Study of Foreign Great White Fleet of the late 19th century, the B-17, McNamara's electronic wall in Affairs, says: "We let the moment pass. We Vietnam, the F-111s that attacked Gadhafi started to get self-conscious about it, and the in Libya. They will win the war cheaply, effi- more self-conscious we got, the less self- ciently and scientifically. ghteous we could be. In America, you don't In "Wartime," culture critic Paul Fussell to war for state policy, you have to act on *usade, says that the start of World War II was much The good war is so embedded ur mythology, and that's what the gov- like the Persian Gulf buildup: "At first every- one hoped, and many believed, that the war nent doesn't understand-and if we understand our own culture, we can't would be fast-moving, mechanized, remote- controlled, and perhaps even rather easy." top of foreign policy." As John Updike has written: "America is e good war, "there is no substitute for beyond power, it acts as in a dream, as a face as MacArthur said. of God. Wherever America is, there is free- bod war, the other guy starts it. He dom, and wherever America is not, madness 3 bad guy, he has to attack us. The rules with chains, darkness strangles mil- the Japanese had been crushing lions. Beneath her patient bombers, paradise on three continents for years be- is possible." Photocopy-Preservation doesn't understand our feelings. Perhaps Saddam Hussein has a different definition of the good war. Does he wonder what kind of war we can fight when we talk about it as if it's a combination of corporate management and psychotherapy? The intellectual celebrities of Americ supported World War II-Archibald Mac Leish, John Steinbeck and Carl Sandbur, helped lead the American propaganda effort for instance, Instead of being vulgar red- necks, our soldiers were the salt of the earth, Bill Mauldin's Willie and Joe, "I'm no hero, I'm just a guy, just want to get this thing over and go home," said William Ben- dix in one movie. But this came at the end of more than a decade of intellectuals' celebra- tion of the common man. After World War II, American art turned to the international language of abstraction Dwight MacDonald warned of the tackiness of mid-cult America. Joseph Heller published "Catch-22" just as our advisers were moving STARS ENTRA 3 into Vietnam, Kurt Vonnegut was becoming a literary hero to the young and the myth of the good war started to look a little moth- eaten. A.war in the Persian Gulf would come at the end of a decade of flag waving, "Rocky" movies, Arnold Schwarzenegger movies and Reaganite patriotism, even if it takes the pe- culiar post-apocalyptic form of a singer like Lee Greenwood getting onto a stage with a week's worth of stubble on his face, looking like a wino while he sings that he's proud to be an American, and "at least I know I'm free." Good war, bad war. It's hard to tell which is which, When Air Force Gen. Michael Dugan said we could bomb Baghdad in the total good- war style, he got fired. In a Senate hearing when Richard Perle, a former assistant sec- retary of defense under Reagan, laid out We have a particular romance with air to cure them of a sort of mental illness. In plans for the sort of limited wars intellectuals power, and last August, when cynics sug- fact, this is one of the big lies about Viet- have been planning since World War II, Ted- gested it hadn't turned Vietnam into a good nam-the other being that blacks died in dy Kennedy erupted at him: "Look out, boys, war, the answer was: "Ain't no trees to hide numbers vastly out of proportion to their you can destroy some of the soldiers and fa- under in the desert." numbers in the U.S. population, a bit of prop- cilities but not be sure and miss one out Since World War II, the definition of the aganda that has been revived in the debate of three." good war has become one thing for intellec- over the Persian Gulf. As for support, a look A war in the Persian Gulf "may be the first tual policy makers and another for the rest of at six, years of polling from 1965 to 1971 war that was ever nitpicked to death before us. shows that the college-educated supported it could start," writes columnist Michael Kin- Among the intellectuals of the 1950s and the war far more than the high school- and sley. On the other hand, it may not be. In 1960s, a good war was a. tool rather than a grade school-educated. 1948, author and presidential adviser Robert crusade, therapy rather than brute violence. "When I sent a book to the printer with a E. Sherwood recalled that World War II was It was a precise means of attaining ends with graph showing that, they called up and said "the first war in American history in which carefully graduated responses, surgical air that I must have gotten the labels reversed," the general disillusionment preceded the fir- strikes, systems analysis and highly trained says Wilson. "People can't believe it." ing of the first shot." elite forces such as the Green Berets. Good Now, in the Age of Feelings, the publicly The disillusionment in question had come war would be free of the sort of racism we accepted way of talking about war deals with after the previous good war, World War I. In showed toward the Japanese. emotions rather than blood: Among Vietnam 1937, disgust with World War was so great We now have a prudery of violence, and veterans, it's their post-traumatic stress syn- that only 28 percent of Americans said we among the people that UCLA's James Q. dromes rather than their missing legs that should have fought in it, but that number Wilson calls "the chattering classes," war has excite our pity and fascination. In "Dispatch- doubled as Pearl Harbor made the first war come to be seen not so much as wicked but es," Michael Herr wrote his famous passage look good again. Then again, months after as vulgar, like professional wrestling or deer about coming under fire in Vietnam: Pearl Harbor, a Gallup poll showed that only hunting-another reason for the popularity your senses working like strobes, free-falling about half of Americans knew why we were of air power, death from a lofty. distance. In all the way down to the essences and then at war. the middle '80s, Fred Downs, a decorated flying out again in a rush to focus, like the "Americans tend to support any war the Vietnam infantry officer, lectured an infantry first strong twinge of tripping after an infu- president begins," says UCLA's Wilson. "The class about killing and was told afterward by sion of psilocybin, reaching in at the point of percentage of the public saying they approve a high-ranking Army officer that the word calm and springing all the joy and all the of how the president is doing his job goes up "killing" had been replaced by "servicing the dread ever known the feeling you'd had when troops go in. The month before Korea. target." Nowadays, no liberal senator could when you were much, much younger and un- began, Truman's rating was 37; the month say that he had joined up "to get myself a dressing a girl for the first time." How differ- after it was 46. Ford went from 40 to 51 Jap," as Illinois' Paul Douglas said. ent from a Marine in the Pacific half a centu- with the Mayaguez incident, Reagan went Oscar Wilde predicted: "As long as war is ry ago, saying: "I just want to spit in a dead from 43 to 53 with Grenada. This even hap- regarded as wicked, it will always have its Jap's face." Nowadays, a newspaper ad pens when the operations are failures-Ken- fascination, When it is looked upon as vulgar, reads: "It's not the desert heat. It's not Sad- nedy went from 73 to 83 with the Bay of it will cease to be popular." dam Hussein. It's wondering if you care." Pigs, and Carter went from 39 to 43 after On the other hand, when it is looked upon It is also taboo to want to kill the enemy the failure of the hostage rescue mission." as vulgar, the vulgar thumb their noses the leaders. This is new. In World War II, the fi- Only a few years ago war, particularly the way they thumb their noses at other upper- nal training film in Frank Capra's series good war, was looking impossible. class pruderies, Hence the popularity of the "Why We Fight" showed pictures of the Nazi "War today is a luxury that only the weak sort of T-shirts you see In Army Navy hierarchy while a voice said: "If you ever see and the poor can afford," said Zbigniew Brze- stores, with slogans like "Kill 'Em All, Let one of these men, KILL HIMI" zinski, who was national security adviser to God Sort Em Out." The educated cult of cul- War heroes have gone the way of John Jimmy Carter. tural relativism gets summed up in: "Join the Henry, defeated by the steam-hammer of the "War has fallen upon hard times," wrote Army, Travel to Distant Lands, Meet Inter- machine gun, the tank, the B-52, missiles, Army intelligence analyst Robert L. O'Con- esting People and Kill Them." Another shirt nuclear weapons, all of which have made sur- nell in "Of Arms and Men." He went on: shows a phone company slogan born of the vival in combat far more a matter of chance "Two centuries of increasingly pointless, fi- Age of Feelings: "Reach Out and Touch than of skill. Only the Oliver Norths of this nancially disastrous and above all, lethal con- Someone." The words are under a telescopic world go to war for glory. The Army recruits flicts, culminating in the discovery and prolif- rifle sight. The lower classes maybe be low- its soldiers with a pitch that makes it sound eration of nuclear weapons, have rendered er in class, but not in brains. like a combination of an encounter group and this venerable-institution virtually incapable For their part, the upper classes have re- a junior college: "Be all that you can be." We of performing any of the roles classically as- sponded by remembering the Vietnam War, continue to talk about Saddam Hussein in the signed to it. a bad one, as a period when they had to wean language of psychobabble-he isn't getting With any kind of luck at all in the Persian bloodthirsty rednecks away from slaughter, our signals, we re failing to-communicate, he Gulf, we will not find out if he's right, Photocopy-Preservation PATRICK BUCHANAN f communism was the god that The next Western institutions put down their e I failed the Lost Generation, de- roots in a particular subsoil - reli- mocracy, as ideal form of gov- gious, political, cultural, historic ernment, panacea for man- that is not easily replicated in the 1 kind's ills, hope of the world, may и Golden Third World. prove the Golden Calf of this genera- What is democracy? George Or- 0 tion. well could not define it: "[N]ot only Disillusionment with the newest is there no agreed definition, but the el idol is already setting in. Calf? attempt to make one is resisted from as all sides. Words of this kind are 'u In the Soviet Union, the ills atten- S: dant to all modern democracies - often used in a dishonest way." S crime, rampant vice, social decom- The world hails democracy in d position - have arrived, without, as principle; in practice, most men be- ni yet, its material blessings. In the So- lieve there are things higher in the viet republics, democracy is seen as order of value than how their rulers Bu a halfway house to the greater goal: are chosen. Among them, tribe and liberation and nationhood. Mr. Gor- nation, family and faith. no bachev, sensing the souring mood, is Our European ancestors who shifting his base away from the founded America believed that not em LITE glasnost reformers to the old order. only was their civilization superior to what they found here but that the In East Europe, communism's leg opinions of native Americans were passing has exposed the old ethnic mil not even worth listening to. Were quarrels. Bulgarians, rid of Stalin- ) 10 they wrong? ism, want to settle scores with do- "Journalists have heralded news V. mestic Turks. Romanians, with the of global democracy as if it were the Ceausescus dead, wish to put down triumphal entry of Christ," writes the Hungarians of Transylvania. Far F.W. Schnitzler in The Deification more important to these people than of Democracy" in January's Chal- how decisions are made is what de- cedon Report "For the development cisions are made. IDS of genuine freedoms, we ought to be In I atin America, the common thankful, but when the praises of characteristic of democracies is that any political system are sung with they cannot resist the clamor of the the zeal and admiration due to God crowd, and they will not pay their Jordan, elections are advancing reli alone, Christians ought to be con- bills. The great exception: Gen. gious fundamentalists whose dream cerned The deification of democ Augusto Pinochet's Chile. is to impose Islamic law on the racy is a development worthy of our In Algeria, Tunisia, Yemen and masses who vote them power. "De- concern. mocracy" is seen as the means to a The American press is infatuated higher end, the good society, the to the point of intoxication with "de- Patrick Buchanan is a nationally godly society, in Moslem eyes: syndicated columnist. The realization is dawning that see BUCHANAN, page G4 Photocopy-Preservation BUCHANAN services. Excluding police, fire and ors everywhere lack the backbone to elected officials, there are now only resist union demands and an under- From page G1 18 city employees." class that insists the power to tax be mocracy." But do we really believe But if quasi-dictatorial rule is used to dispossess the propertied our own propaganda? good for Ecorse, why not for New class? As our ancestors once fled In a recent editorial, the Wall York? If granting men "wide- English kings, German princes and Street Journal deplored the ruin into ranging powers unhindered by Russian czars, millions today flee which its elected mayor had driven the politicians" is the way out of fis- the cities of the republic for the Philadelphia; and contrasted the cal crisis, why not try it at the fed- sanctuary of the suburbs. Philadelphia story with that of a eral level? Have elected "politicians" Of IBM, the Marine Corps, the small-town economic czar: become an impediment to good gov- Redskins and the D.C. government, "In 1986, Ecorse, Mich., a work- ernment? What does that tell us only leaders of the last are chosen by ing-class community of 11,000 near about our democracy? democratic procedure. Only the last Detroit, was $6 million in debt and in "Democracy, in and of itself," is run on democratic, not autocratic, violation of court orders to balance writes F.W. Schnitzler, is "a valueless principles. Yet who would choose the its budget. A judge placed Ecorse in form of government. It does not im- last as the superior institution? Any- receivership, and gave Louis Schim- ply, suggest or impart moral, ethical one who grew up in the District, lel, a municipal bond expert, wide- or religious values, blessings, or when there was no right to vote and ranging powers to clean up the city, benefits. It merely proposes a politi- no city government, can empathize unhindered by the politicians cal process whereby the actual with the Congolese peasant who "Today, the deficit has disap- feelings and demands of the major- begged the Belgian diplomat to ask peared, a model city has been cre- ity can be determined and satisfied, the king if he would be willing to take, ated and this year Ecorse was turned right or wrong." them all back. back to local control. Mr. Schimmel's T.S. Eliot agreed: The term 'de- The cure for the ills of democ- methods? "To privatize just about mocracy' does not contain enough racy is more democracy, said Al everything' he says. In four years, he positive content to stand alone Smith. The Happy Warrior had it held the line on taxes, cut the mu- against the forces you dislike." wrong: If the people are corrupt, the nicipal work force almost in half and Indeed, how defend our munici- more democracy, the worse the gov- hired private firms to handle most pal democracies when big city may- ernment. nately the incentives of government managing sensational somersaults Photocopy-Preservation A10 THE WALL STREET JOURNAL MONDAY, DECEMBER 17, 1990 POLITICS Split Between Kissinger and Brzezinski on Iraq Reflects Search for New Foreign-Policy Consensus By GERALD F. SEIB Icy adviser to Presidents Nixon and Ford, that sanctions can do Is to begin negotia- Staff Reporter of THE WALLSTREET JOURNAL was a mentor of Brent Scowcroft, who is tions" negotiations are another area WASHINGTON-Henry Kissinger fore- now President Bush's national security ad- where the two men (cleanly split. sees disaster if the U.S. waits for sanctions Viser, and Lawrence Eagleburger, the No. Mr. Kissinger fears that a process of to drive Iraq out of Kuwait: International 2 man In the Bush State Department. negotiating with Iraq will inevitably be resolve will crumble, the military option White House aldes say Mr. Kissinger has dragged out by Saddam Hussein, leading will evaporate, Saddam Hussein will pre- talked privately with Mr. Bush, and he has to the collapse of the International coall- vall. "I believe that many of those who ad- generally. supported the administration tion opposing him, an easing of sanctions vocate sanctions are using it as a cop-out,' publicly. and a reduction of the American military he declares. Mr. Brzezinski. who was President Car- force in Saudi Arabia. Nonsense, says Zbignlew Brzezinski. ter's national security adviser and who has And In negotiations, he says, America Sanctions will work over time, he Insists. privately counseled Mr. Bush onjEuropean inevitably would have to compromise on The real disaster, he argues, would be a issues, is close to many in Congress, in- its goals to get a deal. "If the U.S. leaves war. "It could be quite expensive in both cluding Senate Armed Services Committee money and blood. under conditions that are a disguised Iraqi Chairman Sam Nunn (D., Ga.). His views success-that is to say, where Iraq gains He scoffs at Mr. Kissinger's theory that have seeped into congressional broad- something in Kuwalt even if It is given to the conflict could be limited in scope, say- sides. them by the Kuwaitis, or by an Arab sum- ing acidly that it Mr. Brzezinski recently had a private mit-and If the military preponderance of "reminds me little session with Democratic Sen. Edward Ken- Iraq remains unaffected, then I think we bit of his arguments nedy of Massachu- will have suffered a defeat," he says. for how to terminate setts, for Instance. the Vietnam War.' That's why Mr. Kissinger has publicly Shortly afterward, Mr. Kissinger voiced his disapproval of Secretary of the senator used sta- calls that an "un- State Baker's trip to Baghdad, though he's tistics Mr. Brze- worthy comment." now ceasing his criticism to avoid under- zlnski had provided The real calamity, on civilian casual- cutting the secretary. The prospective he says, would be Baker mission to Baghdad, though, re- ties during the for the U.S. to slink mains in doubt after the U.S. and Iraq bombing of North away, which would falled over the weekend to resolve a dls- Vietnam as ammu- "undermine all pute over dates. Iraq has insisted that Mr. nition against wit- friends in the Baker see Saddam Husseln on Jan. 12. The ness testifying be area." Bush administration maintains that's too Henry Kissinger fore the committee. In the first crisis close to the Jan. 15 deadline set by the The target: Mr. Kis- of the post-Cold War era, these two titans United Nations for Iraql withdrawal and singer. of the foreign-policy establishment, whose Zbigniew Brzezinski The therefore would represent an opportunity two are also world view was usually in sync during the for Iraq to push back the deadline. The ad- illustrative of the schism in the nation's Cold War, are proposing dlametrically op- ministration has Insisted on a date no later opinion-making community. In Mr. Kis- posed courses of action. Mr. Kissinger than Jan. 3. As a result of the dispute, a singer's corner are such heavyweights as thinks the proposed diplomatic mission to visit to Washington by Iraq's foreign min- former top Defense Department adviser Baghdad by Secretary of State James Richard Perle and former United Nations Ister, once expected to occur today, has Baker remains unscheduled be- been postponed. Ambassador Jeane Kirkpatrick. But this cause of a U.S.-Iraqi dispute over dates-is camp Is an increasingly lonely place: Mr. The Brzezinski camp, by contrast, a bad Idea; Mr. Brzezinski applauds It. Kissinger sometimes muses that his post- hasn't any such fear of negotiations. Mr. They disagree on the usefulness of sanc- tion Is like Churchill's in the 1930s as he ar. Brzezinski says he prefers the term "dis- tions, on how much time the administra- gued in valn about the dangers of Nazi cussion," but sees no problem In talking tion has and on what course would leave a Germany. with Iroq about ways It could resolve Its more stable Middle East. disputes with Kuwait over their common In Mr. Brzezinskl's corner are such Their disagreement over virtually every heavy hitters as former Defense Secretary border, Its desire to lease two Kuwalti Is. aspect of the showdown with Iraq symbol- lands or Its big debts to Kuwalt. The dis- James Schlesinger and many former U.S. Izes the schism dividing America's foreign cussions, he says, might produce "some military leaders, ranging from former policy thinkers and the country at large-a Joint Chiefs Chairman William Crowe to arrangement for adjudication" of those is schism that has only deepened since Iraq's sues. former Navy Secretary James Webb. decision to release American hostages. "I see nothing wrong with that, and I These disagreements come from two The split also has important long-range men who exercise enormous influence on meaning. In the past; the foreign- es- find such an outcome perfectly accept- able," Mr. Brzezinski says: tablishment was often galyanized around official American thinking in both political strategy designed to deter Sovlet ad- One of then mostemotional splits in - parties. Mr. Kissinger, the top foreign-po)- volves the question of whether the U.S. vances, but the Soviet threat is gone. "The old foreign policy consensus built around could limit military action to air and naval. containment and all those things that strikes. Mr. Kissinger maintains that even worked is no longer there, because the So- with such contained fighting the U.S. could viets as a threat are gone,' says Nicholas force Iraq to retreat. Mr. Brzezinski says Vellotes, a foreign service officer and for: wide-scale ground combat would be Inevi- mer assistant secretary of state. table, arguing that air strikes didn't suc. At the heart of the split is a dispute More immediately. the debate among ceed in Korea or Vietnam. over whether economic sanctions can be opinion leaders Is critical to the Bush ad- The broadest area of dispute encom- counted on to force Iraq out of Kuwait. ministration as the clock ticks toward the passes the future of the Middle East: Mr. Kissinger says that there's nothing Jan. 15 deadline contained In a United Na whether war or. a failure to cut Saddam even close to a guarantee they will work. tions resolution authorizing the use of force Hussein down to size would cause the more Sanctions advocates "are saying that they to drive Iraq out of Kuwalt. dangerous mess. think In 12 to 18 months sanctions will work," he says. "They have produced no The debate even'reflects some personal Mr. Kissinger argues that the U.S. must evidence that this Is true have said animosity. "Quite frankly, I don't think find a way to scale back Iraq's dangerous Kissinger's interested in resolving the: is chemical and nuclear weapons programs from the beginning that time wasn' on our sue," Mr. Brzezinski says. "I think Kis- now or face .far deadlier conflict down side. I said from the beginning that we singer wants to destroy Iraq, period. Ku- the road as the Iraqi dictator expands his would have to choose between sanctions walt Is just an excuse," control over the Persian Gulf and its oll and military options somewhere along the "A very unjust statement, counters fields. line.' - Mr. Brzezinski counters that there isn't Mr. Kissinger, who asserts he hasn't any America's friends would crumble in the any evidence sanctions won't work In this desire to destroy Iraq, merely to see its of- face of such a hostile power-an outcome fensive capabilities reduced. He won't de- Mr. Kissinger suggests needs to be pre- case, because the sanctions on far tall on the record what he thinks about Mr. vented even If It means some military ac- more severe than any ever imposed Brzezinski's stand. tion now. "I balance the fear of the col- think sanctions have already had a mas But Mr. Kissinger argues that If the lapse of all the moderates against what- sive attriting impact on Iraq, and If main tained for a year or so they would probably U.S. had confined itself to protecting Saudi ever the result may be my preferred op- Arabia and had left the liberation of Ku- tion of selective reduction of Iraqi military bring that economy to a total standstill, he says. "So they have already established walt to the world community- 'the Brze- preponderance,' he says. zinsk! option,' he calls would have But in Mr. Brzezinski's eyes, military the lesson that the aggression didn't been a bad mistake, but a retrieveable conflict Itself would create "long-lasting pay. one." It didn't happen that way, though; enmity" toward the U.S. that would de- Mr. Kissinger maintains that "the best the U.S. took the lead in pushing for liber- stroy governments friendly to the U.S. Just ating Kuwalt and sent hundreds of thou- as bad, the positions of Syria and Iran sands of troops. If the U.S. now shrinks would be enhanced and the region even away, he argues, "It will be perceived that more destabilized. the radicals faced us down. that 1,000 Continued Iraql occupation of Kuwalt American hostages were taken without any would be "sad," Mr. Brzezinski says-but consequence, that the moderate govern- not as sad as the result of military conflict. ments who bet on us would be discre- "I just don't see the argument for the dited." proposition that a major war by the U.S. In this area Is a solution," he says. Photocopy-Preservation George F. Will 10/12/90 It's Not Modesty, It's Arrogance When King Edward I in 1294 summoned the Richard Darman, the budget director, is com- clergy and demanded half their income, the monly called "brilliant," but that handicap is no dean of St. Paul's dropped dead on the spot. excuse for ignoring banal but important truths, That was a tax protest beyond the dreams (so such as: Decisions made without the concurrence far) of Newt Gingrich. of Congress are in the subjunctive mood. The 1990 budget tedium began a few months John Sununu (who dismissed a Republican ago with promises to cut about $50 billion from a senator, Mississippi's Trent Lott, as "insignif- deficit of about $200 billion. Then the promise icant") is not the first clever person to become was revised to $40 billion from a deficit of about impatient with the culture of Congress or to $250 billion. Now it is $34 billion (the costs of relish the role of a president's designated thug. Desert Shield will not be counted) from a deficit But the serious problem is Bush's mentality, that probably will be well over $300 billion. one that produces his preference for policy- The newest "deadline" (cross the line and making in private by a few in an aura of die? hardly) that will be missed is Oct. 19. By bipartisanship that blurs party differences by then, the House and Senate are supposed to de-emphasizing principles and ideas. This pref- have approved the various committee plans for erence is a facet of Bush's and his White cutting spending and raising revenues to com- House's temperament, concerning which there ply with this week's achievement, the budget is confusion. resolution: What has been described as Bush's modesty That resolution is a promise. The reconcili- is actually arrogance. His modesty is supposed- ation bill due by Oct. 19 is the delivery. Those ly shown by his emotional minimalism, his committees have Democratic majorities. Presi- complacent inarticulateness, his de-emphasisto dent Bush has been reduced to a bystander. the point of disparagement of the rhetorical His "summit" deal collapsed in part because dimension of the presidency. Bush and his the process that produced it made most of handlers have spent 20 months telling the Congress marginal. And Bush's aides (the tone of country what the country this month has told a White House is set at the very top and trickles him: He is no Reagan. down) seemed overbearing. He discounts rhetoric because he discounts persuasion of the public. He IS governing less by continuous acts of public consent than by a small elite's entitlement, the right of the political class to take care of business cozily. So, naturally, he has no need to do what Reagan did-argue, persuade, precipitate con- frontations with Congress, force polarizing choices. All those things shave points off a president's popularity, but solidify a committed base outside Washington's Beltway. Now the mountain (actually, the Hill) will labor mightily and bring forth a modified mouselet, a package of mini-measures cutting the 1991 defi- cit about 10 or 12 percent (depending on the gravity of the recession). The economic effects of $34 billion trimmed from the $300 billion deficit of a $1.3 trillion budget in a $5 trillion economy will be trivial. But the political consequences of this month's spectacle may be large. We stand on the lip of a recession, and perhaps of war, with a president who is being outmaneuvered and toyed with by Democrats who like him as much as ever and fear him less than ever. A president who will not appeal over Congress' head to the country is Congress' dream. By his capital-gains obsession, Bush is dissi- pating the principal Reagan effect on the Re- publican Party, the appeal to those blue-collar Democrats who for a while stopped seeing Republicans as "the rich." And Bush's syrupy bipartisanship-secluded summits, Sunday. to- getherness in the Rose Garden-is convincing an unenthralled public that Republicans are not, as until recently had been thought, better than Democrats at budgeting. Finally, incumbents of both parties are being hurt as the budget debacle fuels a nationwide campaign to limit the number of terms elected officials can serve. In 1988, the Baltimore Orioles lost 108 games with a lot of expensive veteran players. Then the Orioles management thought: Hey, we can lose 107 games with hungry, spirited rookies-and might do better. In 1989, the Orioles had base- ball's youngest team, and smallest payroll-and almost won a division title. Today many voters are saying: Hey, 535 political-rookies-535 people plucked from the concourse at O'Hare Airport-could bollix things up as badly as the experienced politicians have done (how experienced do you have to be to close the Washington Monument?), and they might do better. Photocopy-Preservation PAGE D4 / MONDAY, AUGUST 20, 1990 MAX LERNER Birth of the fact of a world armada gathering in Saudi Arabia as a staging area, to deter any further outrages against world opinion and law. It must be said of Mr. Bush that a new he seized the moment perhaps the last moment - when this world opinion and a world force could be metaphor mobilized against Mr. Hussein. Had Mr. Bush waited, even for days, Mr. Hussein's forces would now. be in Saudi Arabia. The moment would age ends when its metaphor have passed, and the world today A dies." I thought of would be a far more dangerous place Archibald MacLeish's than it-is. line as I listened to Presi- That doesn't mean the dangers dent Bush's second talk to the Amer- are past. But they come less from ican people, this time amid the ritual Mr. Hussein's military array than and panoply of the Pentagon. If an from the religious and political war- age has ended, what military met- fare that he and his supporters have aphor has died with it? unleashed - in the Arab world and This is not an idle question. What indeed in America and the West. is at stake is the political and mili- Mr. Bush was wise, in his second tary will of the American people. major talk, to expose the entire tis- Despite all the talk about the "end sue of Mr. Hussein's falsehoods, of war," even the "end of history," we about who and what are today ar- have not reached either. The case of rayed against whom and what. Saddam Hussein shows that history Aimed primarily at splitting the still has its surprises, and that we Arab world, Mr. Hussein's propa- must still meet.wars of aggression ganda also is meant to undercut the with stern deterrence. resolve of Americans to stand be- The one era that seems clearly to hind their government. have ended is the East/West Cold A letter Henry Adams wrote to a War. Its obsequies were delivered by historian friend, in 1910, may shed the image of Secretary of State Ba- some light here. The old cynic was ker and Soviet Foreign Minister looking back at the Civil War. "Fifty Eduard Shevardnadze, at the same years ago," he wrote, "we fought - rostrum, denouncing Mr. Hussein's God knows why but we believed in invasion of Kuwait; and by the it. Whom ought I to fight now? I wish unanimous vote in the U.N. Security I may be'hung up another 50 years Council for sanctions against Iraq. to dry utterly out, if I have the smallest notion whom I ought to With that era's passing, has its fight." metaphor died? I mean the met- aphor of world nuclear destruction The will of a people to fight - - of the end of life on Earth in a backing its leaders - is always a function of its will to believe in a showdown between the Soviets and cause. In the Civil War the belief was America, the two world nuclear pow- there, and again in World War II. In ers. the Korean and Vietnam wars it had In past Middle East crises, dur- ing the Cold War era, the apocalyptic dissipated. shadow of such a showdown was Thus far in the present crisis it is ever-present in the American mind an active belief, as every probing of and set the limits of popular support opinion testifies. Without it, the American forces in the Saudi desert for the actions of its leaders. would be stranded, irresolute. And Those limits are no longer there. their irresolution would infect their That doesn't mean that the threat of allies. lethal weapons has ended. Israel has In his desperation, Mr. Hussein nuclear weapons and Mr. Hussein knows this. Hence his tissue of was within a couple of years of get- falsehoods, aiming his arrows of ting them. He has used chemical doubt at the American will and be- weapons and would use them again lief. if he dared. What inhibits him is only Americans can withstand the on- slaught. I sense in them a dawning Photocopy-Preservation conviction that, as the old metaphor Max Lerner is a nationally syndi- pass, a new metaphor is being bo cated columnist. Its name may be world law. 11/17/90 NYPOST War with Iraq: In the end, the president must have freedom to move HE Great Debate over- war? Answer: the quickest, stitutional powers, is serious T war with Saddam Hus- CIVILIZATION WATCH the least protracted, with the but not decisive. sein and Iraq has fewest casualties. Modern electronic war, on reached enough clarity to dustrial societies for whom My own answer is that Easier said than done. In a land or sea but especially in define the major adverbial oil is the lifeline. war and its alternative - fine piece in the current the air, demands suppleness questions we must resolve. But that still doesn't spell the continuing squeeze of issue of Commentary, Eliot and surprise, and the ca- There are five: whether, out the full stakes, which in- sanctions - don't require an A. Cohen, of Johns Hopkins, pacity to keep the enemy why, how, when, and by volve non-industrial and immediate solution. What is opts for a move "sooner guessing. What would it whose act? non-Western nations as well. central to both is world re- rather than later, with a pro- profit us and the coalition if The whether is of course The why is quite simply the solve. When it becomes clear longed and intensive air we sacrificed these critical the central question but it in- imperative of collective se- that sanctions won't work - campaign," followed up (at factors to an overly rigid volves answering the why curity when a critical threat probably in the next few some remove) by "advances view of congressional first. The why has to do with emerges to even a minimum months - then the coalition on the ground." It makes powers? what is at stake and its for- of world order. troops and armaments are considerable sense to me. The president is chief, if not mulation. This was the high stake in fortunately in place. I should think that the sole, agent of foreign policy, Despite George Bush's Hitler's Europe in the 1930s, Unlike Vietnam, the "sooner rather than later" as well as commander-in- waverings and wafflings MAX and the democracies - in- American domestic front is answers the when question, chief of the armed forces. from time to time in his cluding America - failed to unlikely to have eroded by were it not for William Sa- This president will not, dare phrasing. the why has a LERNER rise to it, to their grief. that time. What is critical is fire's powerful columns ar- not, give the orders for war clarity that goes beyond him This leaves the whether to avoid the kind of "deal" guing that every week and without getting a rough con- or any other head of state. question - to war or not to with Saddam that leads to. month of delay brings Sad- sensus of popular support. It also goes beyond the prices and profits. war - only in part an- his triumph as an Arab hero, dam closer. to his goal of Congress ratifies that con- blindered isolationists who Oil is involved, yes, on a swered. Many feel, in all and the consequent toppling contriving nuclear weapons sensus but doesn't create it. mock the idea that America sheer geopolitical level. conscience, that while the of moderate Arab regimes. and other. lethal missiles. Only the current great de- would place its young in the What is at high risk is ac- stakes are high they are not The how is the hardest. This sets a grim limit to our bate can create and validate Photocopy-Preservation killing fields of the Middle cess to oil access not only high enough for war and its The war planning must con- waiting game. it. Which is how a true East in the interest of oil for America but for all in- gruesome costs. tinue, but for what kind of The final question, of con- democracy works. THE NEW YORK TIMES, FRIDAY, DECEMBER 14, 1990 Madonna — Finally, a Real Feminist ther art nor the artist has a moral the chain, but Madonna the sexual want men to be like women. They fear tic films as Lililana Cazani's The By Camille Paglia responsibility to liberal social causes. persona in the video is alternately a and despise the masculine. The aca- Night Porter" and Luchino Visconti's "Justify My Love" is truly avant- cross-dressing dominatrix and a demic feminists think their nerdy "The Damned." It's the perverse PHILADELPHIA garde, at a time when that word has slave of male desire. bookworm husbands are the ideal and knowing world of the photogra- adonna, don't preach. lost its meaning in the flabby art But who cares what the feminists model of human manhood. phers Helmut Newton and Robert Defending her world. It represents a sophisticated say anyhow? They have been outra- But Madonna loves real men. She M Mapplethorpe. controversial new European sexuality of a kind we have geously negative about Madonna sees the beauty of masculinity, in all Contemporary American femi- video "Justify My not seen since the great foreign films from the start. In 1985, Ms. magazine its rough vigor and sweaty athletic nism, which began by rejecting Love" on "Night- of the 1950's and 1960's. But it does pointedly feted quirky, cuddly singer perfection. She also admires the men Freud because of his alleged sexism, line" last week, not belong on a mainstream music Cyndi Lauper as its woman of the who are actually like women: trans- has shut itself off from his ideas of Madonna stumbled, rambled and channel watched around the clock by year. Great judgment: gimmicky sexuals and flamboyant drag queens, ambiguity, contradiction, conflict, ended up seeming far less intelligent children. Lauper went nowhere, while Madon- the heroes of the 1969 Stonewall rebel- ambivalence. Its simplistic psychol- than she really is. On "Nightline," Madonna bizarrely na grew, flourished, metamorphosed lion, which started the gay liberation ogy is illustrated by the new cliché of Madonna, 'fess up. called the video a "celebration of and became an international star of movement. the date-rape furor:" 'No' always The video is pornographic. It's dec- sex." She imagined happy education- staggering dimensions. She is also a "Justify My Love" is an eerie, sul- means 'no'. Will we ever graduate adent. And it's fabulous. MTV was al scenes where curious children shrewd business tycoon, a modern try tableau of jaded androgynous from the Girl Scouts? "No" has al- right to ban it, a corporate resolve would ask their parents about the woman of all-around talent. creatures, trapped in a decadent sex- ways been, and always will be, part of long overdue. Parents cannot possi- video. Oh, sure! Picture it: "Mommy, Madonna is the true feminist. She ual underground. Its hypnotic images the dangerous, alluring courtship rit- bly control television, with its titanic please tell me about the tired, tied-up exposes the puritanism and suffocat- are drawn from such sado-masochis- ual of sex and seduction, observable omnipresence. man in the leather harness and the ing ideology of American feminism, even in the animal kingdom. Prodded by correspondent Forrest mean, bare-chested lady in the Nazi which is stuck in an adolescent whin- Madonna has a far profounder vi- Photocopy-Preservation Sawyer for evidence of her responsi- cap." O.K., dear, right after the milk ing mode. Madonna has taught young sion of sex than do the feminists. She bility as an artist, Madonna hotly and cookies. women to be fully female and sexual Down with sees both the animality and the arti- proclaimed her love of children, her Mr. Sawyer asked for Madonna's while still exercising total control fice. Changing her costume style and social activism and her condom en- reaction to feminist charges that, in over their lives. She shows girls how hangdog hair color virtually every month, Ma- dorsements, Wrong answer. As Bau- the neck manacle and floor-crawling to be attractive, sensual, energetic, donna embodies the eternal values of delaire and Oscar Wilde knew, nei- of an earlier video, "Express Your- ambitious, aggressive and funny - dowdies and beauty and pleasure. Feminism says, self," she condoned the "degrada- all at the same time. "No more masks." Malonna says we Camille Paglia, author of "Sexual tion" and "humiliation" of women. American feminism has a man Personae: Art and Decadence from Madonna waffled: "But I chained problem. The beaming Betty Crock- prudes. are nothing but masks Through her enormous impact on Nefertiti to Emily Dickinson," teach- myself! I'm in charge." Well, no. Ma- ers, hangdog dowdies and parochial young women around!the world, Ma- es at the University of the Arts. donna the producer may have chosen prudes who call themselves feminists donna is the future of feminism. ATIONAL THURSDAY, AUGUST 2, 1990 Pentagon Drafts Post-Cold War Strategy Continued From Page Al The Pentagon's Plan by some senior military officers who think the cuts go too far, is still being refined by the Pentagon. But Bush Ad- THE ATLANTIC FORCE ministration officials say the main thrust has been favorably received by Would Include armored.units and Army and Air Force reserves the President, who is expected to draw Could respond to a Soviet attack against Western Europe or tank on some of some of the Pentagon's lat- warfare by Iran or Arab nations in the Persian Gulfiregion est planning in a speech on military Army. Five active Army divisions; two in Europe, Would also policy he will deliver in Aspen, Colo., on Thursday. Include six reserve Army divisions and two new reconstitutable The new blueprint represents the divisions These would be partially staffed reserve units that could first comprehensive effort by senior be brought to full strength during periods of heightened tension Pentagon officials, under heavy pres- sure from Congress to reduce spend- Air Force Three to four tactical fighter wings based In Europe: Two ing, to adapt American strategy and active Air Force tactical fighter wings based in the United States forces to the political and military sea along with a reserve force equivalent to nine fully staffed and change that has taken place in the equipped Air Force tactical fighter wings Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. Criticism From Congress Navy Six carriers, one deployed In the Mediterranean Sea Until now, the Pentagon has pre- Marines The Mediterranean Amphibious Ready Group, a 2 400 sented only fragmentary suggestions member expeditionary unit with tanks, artillery, hellcopter and of how It would adjust to the receding Harrier jets that Is currently deployed off the coast of Liberia, would Soviet threat, most dwelling on budget- cutting measures. This has drawn be on station near Europe, Marine force based In the United States sharp criticism from members of Con- would Include two active and one reserve Marine expeditionary gress who have assailed the Defense brigades, units of from 13,500 to 18,000 members Department for failing to articulate a long-term strategic vision. The Pentagon told Congress in June, THE PACIFIC FORCE for example, that it was considering a 25 percent cut In forces over five years Would have a maritime character. Air Force tactical units would and offered an illustrative breakdown defend South Korea, Japan and other Asian allies. of how such a reduction might be ac- Army One division deployed In South Korea with a reinforcing complished. But the June report made no mention of strategy, did not explain division deployed in Hawali or Alaska the projected cuts in detail and was Air Force Three to four tactical fighter wings based in the Pacific. cast primarily as a budget exercise to explain the fiscal consequences of Navy Six carriers, one of which would be based in Japan. force reductions. Marines Four Marine expeditionary brigades: one based in Japan, In Line With Budget Plans one In Hawail and two In the United States Pentagon officials said that the new strategic plan reflects an acceptance that the military budget Is in decline. It THE CONTINGENCY FORCE is generally consistent with current Administration plans to cut military Would be designed for rapid response to brush-fire conflicts In the spending, after taking account of infla- third world. Would be leading edge in a major Intervention tion, by 10 percent over five years. Somewhat greater savings could be Army Five divisions, Including the 82d Airborne division; 101 air achieved if the pace of the reductions in assault division equipped with helicopters, 24th mechanized Infantry forces were accelerated. division, equipped with tanks and armored troop carriers, and the But at the same time, the plan Is in- 5 tended to help the Pentagon hold the 7th and Oth "light" Infantry divisions. line against more severe budget cuts, It would Include seven active fighter wings and forces trained to by arguing that there Is a "base force" rescue hostages and conduct operations against terrorists that the United States cannot go below. The blueprint is the result of more could draw on Navy carriers and Marine units than five months of planning and meet- Ings, encouraged by Mr. Cheney, and is based on the work of General Powell and Paul Wolfowitz, the Undersecre- tary of Defense for Policy, who over- reserves, saying that it requires fur- saw separate efforts to update military A reflection of ther study and expressing concerns planning. General Powell and Mr. Wol- that the widespread application of the fowitz came to similar conclusions reductions in proposal would lead to even sharper about the size of forces that would be cuts in the Army. In addition to these needed. In recent weeks, an effort has been tensions and two "reconstitutable" units, tits, the blueprint would keep 6 other reserve made to coordindate the positions of divisions. the chairman of the Joint Chiefs and funds. Senior Air Force officials have said the civilian policy experts, and a paper the service needs more than the reflecting a common position was re- roughly 25 active and reserve tactical cently presented to the Defense Policy air wings suggested by the new blue- Resources Board, the top-level plan- a force is not sufficient to keep carriers print. The Air Force currently has ning group in the Pentagon. in the Mediterranean Sea and the West- about 36 air wings and has proposed Four Basic Components ern Pacific constantly, while also shrinking that to 28. maintaining a presence in the Indian The new plan, in keeping with the Pentagon officials say that the new. Ocean six months out of the year. The plan assumes that Soviet forces will be think of General Powell, organizes the Navy, which currently has 14 deploy- military Into four basic components. It withdrawn from Europe by the mid. able carriers, says that at least 12 are 1990's, that a new East-West conven- would establish an Atlantic Force that needed. would include armored units and siz- tional arms pact will be agreed and. An aide to Mr. Cheney said that the that the Western alliance will be Intact. able Army and Air Force reserves to Secretary currently favors retaining a guard against a renewed Soviet threat, Following such developments, Mos- force of 12 carriers but added that the and to meet threats in the Persian Gulf: COW would still capable of launching matter is under review along with limited attacks on the northern and There would also be a Pacific Force other questions about the Navy's fu- southern flanks of the NATO alliance that would emphasize naval and tacti- ture. cal air units to defend South Korea and or even in central Europe. But the The Marine Corps objects to the blue- other American allies in Asia. Sovlet Union would need a year or two print's proposal to reduce the service Additionally, the military would have of advance preparation to fight a global to about 150,000 men, a 25 percent cut. a Contingency Force for rapid re- conventional war involving a major Gen. Alfred M. Gray, the Marine Corps sponse to brush-fire conflicts in the multi-front attack on Western Europe. commander, has argued that the Third World and to be the leading edge The study also assumes that the member corps should not be re- in a major American military inter- third world powers, such as Iraq, which duced below 180,000, and some Marine vention. There would also be the Strate- is already regarded as a formidable officials say a force in the 170,000 range gic Force of long-range nuclear weap- opponent, will become more powerful. would be acceptable. The Marines ons. The growth of regional powers in the argue that from a strategic standpoint, Based on the revised forecast of the Middle East Is leading to some impor- the services forces are needed more Soviet military threat, the blueprint tant modifications in military planning. than ever to deal with conflicts in the calls for cutting Army and Air Force Because a nation such Iraq could Third World. units oriented toward the defense of launch an attack on short notice, warn- Top Army officials appear recon- Western Europe. Ing an such attack is likely to less than ciled to the proposal to cut the service The United States has already pro- that of a Soviet invasion, Pentagon to 12 active divisions from the current posed shrinking its force of 305,000 18. This would be two fewer active divi- planners say. To cope with the growth. Army and Air Force troops in Europe of such regional threats, Pentagor sions than proposed by the Army in in- to 225,000 in the conventional arms planners are putting more emphasis on ternal budget deliberations. talks. Pentagon officials say the new tactical air forces, instead of ground Uniformed Army officials, however, plan does not explicitly Identify what troops, and might draw on forces from are cautious about the idea for creating further cuts might be possible in Eu- the Pacific as well as the Atlantic two "reconstitutable" divisions in the force, rope if Moscow completely withdrew Its forces from Eastern Europe, as pro- jected by the Defense Department. But these officials add that the plan implies there would be further such re- ductions. In fact, senior Pentagon offi- cials are now weighing plans to cut to the level of 100,000 to 125,000 or so if Moscow should withdraw from East- ern Europe. 'Reconstitutable' Divisions tutable" Army re- Photocopy-Preservation LOS ANGELI TIMES BE Backers Urge White House to Save Embattled Plane Defense: Bush draws effort faint-hearted, saying that it If Congress final version of the sions out of a bill, said one con criticism for what critics is likely to be too little, too late. 1991 defense budget leaves out the The Pentagon has reinforced gressional aide who is key to the call a tepid-responce They B-2, will Bush use his most power- that impression, they said, by being fight. But you really can't veto ful weapon- the legislative veto- unwilling to single out the B-2 for something into a bill." fear it may be too late to to get the funds restored? special treatment. While Cheney Some Democratic supporters of save the bomber during Rep. William L. Dickinson (R has touted the plane in speeches the B-2, including Exon, said they Ala.), the ranking Republican on and congressional hearings, Penta- suspected that behind the White upcoming budget battles. the House Armed Services Com- gon officials said that he has been House's muted support lies a more mittee, predicted Wednesday that careful not to suggest that the B-2 intricate strategy: to let Congress By MELISSA HEALY Bush would veto the House bill if it is a non-negotiable priority in the kill the bomber program that the TIMES STAFF WRITER came to him in its current form. defense budget. Bush Administration itself has But other proponents of the revo- W ASHINGTON As congres- "You have to resist the urge to concluded, is too costly, and then lutionary plane warned that Bush accuse the Democrats in future sional debate on defense cut side deals on special projects, cannot let the situation come to spending has shifted into high gear, said' a senior defense official campaigns of having abandoned that, because it probably won't the nation's defenses. awmakers who support the em- We're still trying to go for an work. battled B-2 Stealth bomber are zerall budget," he added. Staff writer David Lauter contribut- You can veto offending provi- ed to this story. complaining that White House support for the program has lacked resolve. Although the Bush Administra- tion seems to have been jolted to some degree by a committee vote Tuesday to terminate production, some supporters warn that it al- ready may be too late to keep the B-2 from crashing during budget battles on the House and Seriate floors. Proponents of the $63-billion program have been pressing the Administration for weeks to push its most powerful advocate-the President-into the political fray in an effort to pluck the program from death at the hands of budget cut- Photocopy-Preservation ters. To their mounting frustration, they continue to get what they consider a tepid response. The White House and the sec- retary of defense have been drag- ging their heels on explaining the need for the B-2 to the American public," complained Sen. J. James Exon (D-Neb.), the Senate's lead- ing proponent of the radar-eluding aircraft. "The President had better spend some political capital on this aircraft or it could be very, very dead-and so stealthy that no one will be able to see it." T here were some signs of action Wednesday, a day after the House Armed Services Committee dealt the B-2 program its most serious blow yet, adopting a $283- billion 1991 defense bill that would terminate production of the plane Defense Secretary Dick Cheney and Brent Scowcroft, Bush's na- tional security adviser, began in- viting senators to the White House to urge them to support the B-2 And White House spokesman Ro- man Popadiuk suggested that the President will boost the foundering program in al speech today, in which Bush "will address how he perceives the U.S. defense budget and U.S. force structure in meeting the changing demands." That description of Bush's com- ing speech, however, failed to com- fort critics who complain that the White House is dealing with the plane as part of a larger package of defense modernization programs. White House sources add that the Administration believes it is too early for the President to go to the mat for the plane because Congress is at least two months away from completing its debate. In Southern California, as many as 17,000 jobs are at stake. For the Northrop Corp., the prime contrac- tor of the beleaguered B-2, the termination of the program could bring serious financial- trouble, ac- cording to industry and Pentagon analysts. With the Senate floor debate due to start as early as today, the House committee's vote to kill the B-2 was just the first of many challenges the plane will face. The Senate Armed Services Committee in mid-July recom mended approval of $4.5 billion- the Administration's full request- to build and test two of the bomb- ers. But in a White House meeting last Monday, the bomber's most influential Senate advocate, Armed Services Chairman Sam Nunn (D- Ga.), warned that without strong White House intercession, he might not be able to fend off opponents of the program on the Senate floor A S debate moves to the floors of the House and Senate, the B-2 program is expected to be buffeted by criticism, including some from the Administration's Republican allies. During that process, one knowl edgeable source said that Vice President Dan Quayle, once: a member of the Senate Armed Ser- vices Committee, might be sent to Capitol Hill to whip errant Senate Republicans into line on the B-2., So far, however, Quayle remains on the sidelines. According to Rep. Jerry Lewis (R-Redlands), a staunch B-2 sup- porter, the Bush Administration decided recently that it must focus its efforts on later stages of the budget-writing process, including the conference between the House and Senate Armed Services com- mittees and the drafting of the defense appropriations bills. "Those who are already singing at the B-2's funeral are doing so a little too early, warned Lewis. But several lawmakers, speaking privately, called the White House Photocopy-Preservation PENTAGON DRAFTS 1 NEW BATTLE PLAN Would Cut Armed Forces by 500,000 by Mid-1990's By MICHAEL R. GORDON Special to The New York Times WASHINGTON, Aug. 1 - The Penta- gon has drafted a blueprint for United States military strategy in the 1990's with the assumption that once Soyiet forces withdraw from Eastern Europe it would take Moscow up to two years to mobilize for a major invasion. The plan marks a striking change from the assumption underlying Amer- ican military strategy during the cold war, that Washington might have as lit- tle as two weeks to reinforce NATO forces if Moscow appeared to be mar- shaling troops and weapons for an at- tack on Western Europe. The confidential plan, which was pre- sented to President Bush in late June by Defense Secretary Dick Cheney and Gen. Colin L. Powell, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the plan would cut the armed forces by 500,000 troops from the current level of 2.1 million, re- duce overseas deployments and estab- lish a new organizational framework for the military. The plan envisions achieving those goals by about the mid- 1990's A Type of Army Units It would also take advantage of the longer warning time of a possible Soviet attack on Europe by creating new Army reserve divisions that could be be brought up to full strength only if needed for a a prolonged crisis. These "reconstitutable" units would be par- tially manned and their equipment would be held in storage. The plan, which has been criticized Continued on Page A14, Column 4 Photocopy-Preservation THE WALL STREET JOURNAL TUESDAY, JUNE 5, 1990 In East Europe, Only Poland Makes Hard Decisions By KAREN ELLIOTT HOUSE have reluctantly concluded that It Isn't go- other state In East Europe. It operated on traumatic. Costs of such basic necessities WARSAW-If, as an Italian Communist ing to supply much practical financial sup- a looser leash from Moscow, established as electricity rose by more than 300% Party leader once said, "there are many port. The surprising thing to an American more trade with Western Europe, and bullt within a matter of weeks, and even the roads to socialism,". these days there are visitor is how infrequently America is even a reputation with Western banks. price of a bottle of vodka/doubled. Inflation at least as many roads back from it. All of mentioned in the offices or coffee houses of Hungary Is perplexed by several para- soared-to 80% in January-but has sub- them are full of potholes and other pit- Eastern Europe. doxes. Precisely because they managed-to sided since to roughly 5% a month. Wages, falls. If such similarities cut across all three advance under communism, external ex- deindexed from price increases, dropped Every country In East Europe has now ex-satellites, there also are significant dif- pectations these days are higher for the sharply in real terms. Polish unemploy- embarked on such a journey-or Is at least ferences in atmospherics and substance. Hungarians. Westerners arrive expecting ment rose to roughly 300,000 (still less than discussing what bags to pack. The desired Czechoslovakla, which statistically en- a functioning market economy. Hungary, 2%) and is predicted to rise to one million destination in each case is some nebulous joys a per-capita standard of living well however, was never a highly industrialized by year by contrast, the Hungarians mix of democratic institutions, the alluring beyond Poland's $1,100, still Is SO desperate. nation and It never.was willing or able gent fret about 4,000 jobless. but confusing benefits of capitalism, and for foreign currency that all visitors are uinely to privatize Its economy: Hun- As the money supply shrank, the the social safety net to which they ve all forced upon arrival to exchange $16 for ev- garians are reluctant to yield elements of monthly interest rate shot to 40% in Janu- become accustomed during more than 40 ery day they will be in the country. While their socialist safety net for the risks of ary-though it, too, has since fallen to 8% years of Marxist stagnation. They start, Poland is coping with the consequences of greater economic freedom. in April and 5.5% in May. The zloty was however, from very different stages of po- last January's sudden conversion to mar- Frustrations exist In dally Hungarian devalued 35% but the result is a freely con- litical sophistication and economic devel- ket, rather than centrally administered, life, like a six-year wait to take title to an vertible currency that enables Poland's opment and have significantly different prices, Czechoslovakla's officials continue automobile. But the frustrations aren't so economy to engage in Internationally com- chances of success. to meet weekly to debate what economic great as to prompt strong public demand petitive commerce. Indeed, few Poles any Recent travel in Czechoslovakia, Hun- reforms to pursue. Its president seems for sharp change. The winners of this longer demand payment In dollars, as the gary and Poland leads to the perhaps sur- more interested in making peace between spring divisive election pledged to move zloty is readily redeemable by any citizen prising conclusion that it is Poland-the Arabs and Israelis than in resolving eco- the country "compassionately." toward at a local bank for hard currency. Six country starting from farthest behind and nomic policy disputes among his own min- capitalism. The party promising more eco- months ago a hotel maitre d' would chase traveling the rockiest road-that stands down patrons offering to tear up the zloty the best chance of actually making the equivalent of a $50 dinner check in ex- transition to genuine capitalism. Poland al- East Europeans may look to America as a source of change for a $10 bill. ready has packed its bags and set off while its wealthier neighbors are still planning inspiration, but they have reluctantly concluded that it The Immediate downside of this high- stakes program has been a significant de- their voyage. isn't going to supply much practical financial support. cline In Industrial production and fears of In any analysis of East Europe these a major recession. "We expected a drop of days, one must set aside East Germany. production," says Wojclech Misiag. deputy Though it shares the past miseries of isters. Debate drags on in government nomic pain en route decisively lost: finance minister and an architect of the Marxism, it has a unique future as an inte- while Parliament busies itself changing "We've gone halfway on economic economic reform plan. "Once you create a gral part of an enlarged German nation. At street names and discussing whether the form for 20 years and it hasn't, worked, real market, a lot of production here isn't the other extreme, Bulgaria and Romania, name Czechoslovakia should be hyphen- says Ferenc Bartha, chairman of the Hun- salable; some Polish products are too ated-or whether Czechs and Slovaks garlan National Bank. despite recent and enormous change, start costly to produce." Industrial production should Inhabit the same nation at all. from SO far back that they are destined to Indeed, If complacency the problem fell 30% In January and February but has remain laggards. Thus, the focus on prob- Some Czechs already are suggesting in Czechoslovakia, gradualism is the diffi- stabilized, and Mr. Mislag believes the lems and potential for Czechoslovakia, that perhaps socialist economics, absent culty in Hungary. "I warn against the phi- downward trend is reversing. Hungary and Poland. Soviet overlords, isn't SO bad after all. losophy of gradualism," says a senior ex- The signs of robust commerce on War- Since the Czechs have more to start with, ecutive of Germany's Deutsche Bank. Chained to Soviet Economy saw's main streets seem to support Mr. they fear they have more to lose. With a "Gradualism nourishes the Illusion you can Misiag's optimism. If some old enterprises Clearly there are commonalities. All degree of comfort has come a higher de- avoid pain.' 09 are foundering in the newly competitive three have the burdensome legacy of ossi- gree of complacency. Prime Minister Jozsef Antall recently marketplace, entrepreneurial activity fied, uncompetitive economies. All three The Czechs are searching for a route to sought to reassure Western bankers who is flourlshing. This city now teems with have also been chained to the rigid Soviet risk-free capitalism. For example, they have financed Hungary's $20 billion foreign sidewalk sellers offering everything from economy. To a degree generally over- continue to debate a national voucher sys- debt. "Our mandate of election means we formerly unattainable fresh fruit to fash- looked by Americans, all three still count tem whereby citizens each would receive a have the moral trust to make the public lonable Italian footwear. the Soviets as their largest trading "part- paper "right" to buy equity in various accept hard decisions. But, he added, ner. The Lilliputians in this case remain state enterprises. Among the problems The Kullbab Model "Harsh measures can be executed only In: tightly tied down by Gulliver. There simply with this paper privatization, however, Is parallel with the creation of a social safety Typical Is Jan Kullbab, a sidewalk shoe : isn't any quick way out of dependency on that vouchers couldn't be freely traded, net. salesman, peddling his total inventory of S Soviet raw materials, nor an immediate al- meaning that both vouchers and enter- It's not surprising that Hungarian offi- two dozen pairs of Italian shoes from be- 1 ternative to the Soviet market, which, un- prises will lack real market value: What cials want It both ways. Genuine economic hind a table on a Warsaw street corner. e like the West, Is willing to barter for fre- should happen to uneconomic enterprises change would require harsh measures for Mr. Kullbab Is selling the shoes for $19 a e quently shoddy goods made by unmoti- in which no Czech chooses to Invest which there could be a political price. Any pair; he buys them at $16 a pair from a vated workers in antiquated factories. vouchers? "We can sell those to the Japa- political instability would scare off credi- wholesaler who travels back and forth by "We trade our stray dog for their blind nese," says Mr. Triska. 0 tors and Investors, leaving Hungary bereft bus to Germany. where he buys the shoes cat,' says Peter Bod, a youthful, market- Vladimir Dlouhy, Czechoslovakia's new of external private support. One further for $12 a pair. Mr. Kullbab, however, 1- oriented economic adviser to Hungary's minister of planning, who really would like complication: Hungarians are engaged in doesn tsintend to remain a sidewalk shoe is new prime minister. to become the country's minister of un- divisive politics over minorities in neigh- salesman. His ambition is to save enough it The three countries also share officials planning, sits in Prague's largest bastion boring countries. To foreigners looking in zlotys to rent a vacant shusage shop where 18 mostly new to government and over- of bureaucracy, and says with a smile, on East Europe, there are a number of he can display a wider range of shoes and :e whelmed by the challenge of creating capi- "welcome to the heartbeat of communist distinct countries with defined borders. But undercut the shoddy merchandise at the talism. A visit to the finance ministry in planning." to many In East Europe, there are rather a state-owned department store down the I'- Czechoslovakia Is typical. "Czechoslovakia Increasingly frustrated by political In- number of distinct nationalities who tran- street. "Last month made an 800,000 zloty is a madhouse,' says Dusan Triska, a decisiveness, Mr. Dlouhy says, 'We know y scend postwar borders. The Issue of Ro- profit Labout $80 but, with a shop 1 could frantic, fortyish economist with an Eln- what steps we have to take, but the politi- 1- manian treatment of Hungarian minorities do much better,' he says. stein-like colffure. He Is responsible for clans aren't ready to take them." Opti- di dominates Hungarian politics more than is- In addition to the enterprise of Its Kuli- privatization programs. "We are trying to mists here believe Czechoslovakia's direc- sues of socialism and capitalism. babs, Poland also benefits from a degree a- do everything at once. New laws-are being tion will be set following national elections While the Czechs and Hungarians are of political unity still unknown elsewhere Introduced every day; we can't keep up Friday.But-it's:far from clear that much seeking painless paths to prosperity, the in East Europe. In Hungary and Czech- ), with it all.' will really change. Poles are accepting genuine economic sac- oslovakia-and even more so in Romania h All three countries covet German mar- At this point, Czechoslovakia, with its rifice 42 and Bulgaria-the "new" political leader- d kets and money. Yet, on the one hand, they pre-war Industrial base, Its artistic and in- In January, Poland's Hew Solidarity ship consists of at best a handful of former fear It won't materialize as German re- tellectual tradition and Its telegenic prest- government launched what it calls its opposition.politiclans who sit atop layer sources pour into East Germany; on the dent, Is quite clearly the world's darling. "leap to the market:' The government upon layer of politicians and bureaucrats, 0 other hand; they fear becoming German But the world's darling risks ending up one slashed the budget, Including a wide range- who may have changed their party affilia 1, economic satellites. of the world's economic orphans if it con- of subsidles. It tightened the money supero, tion but not necessarily their Marxist men- II Also, to a degree that ought to concern tinues to delay hard decisions. ply. It radically devalued the zloty. It, tality. In the rest of East Europe politi- p Americans, officials in all three countries In Hungary's capital of Budapest a dif- largely decontrolled prices, though not- cal reformation runs only skin deep. But in t are surprisingly reconciled to the general ferent kind of disillusionment is setting In. yet-wages. It encouraged foreign compe- *Poland there Is genulne political revolu- Irrelevance of America to their Immediate Hungary over the last decade managed to tition at the risk of bankrupting state en- tion. economic futures. They may look to Amer- move significantly further toward a mix of terprises. That revolution, of course, has been un- Ica as a source of inspiration, but they Marxism and market economics than any The effects were predictably quick and der way for nearly a decade-since Lech Walesa and lils Solidarity movement first challenged the monollthle power of the Polish Communist Party. Here the pres- sure for political change has come from below-from shipyard workers rather than playwrights. Skeptics, and there are many, still ar- gue that there is little In Poland's long his- tory of division to justify much optimism about transition to long-term democracy and prosperity. But the facts support some optimism. Few outsiders believed back in the dark days of martial law suppression of Solidarity that the movement could rise again to challenge communist control. More recently, many doubted whether the Solidarity government would have the guts to take what amounts to a free fall into market economics. In each case, Poles confounded skeptics. With all they been through, Poles are not dreamers about the future, but neither are they whiners or worrlers about the present. The clear impression is that they have resolutely embarked on a rocky road back from communism and that they mean to see the journey through. Ms. House is vice president, interna- tional, of Dow Jones & Co., publisher of The Wall Street Journal. Photocopy-Preservation OTHER THE WALL STREET JOURNAL MONDAY, JUNE 19, 1989 A11 A Funeral in Budapest Restores Hungary's Pride BUDAPEST-Hungarians waited more confiscation. Such survivors, as many as country on the 22nd, he walked into a So- tively mild rebuke from Moscow. Ameri- than 30 years for the funeral that took the Cries of 'Fascism? two million, are now also organizing for re- viet trap and was taken to Romania. The ca's. ambassador in Budapest, Mark place Friday. The nation finally gave a cognition and compensation. next word of his fate came on June 17, Palmer, plans to bring FIDESZ together proper burial to its former prime minister, Three of Nagy's four associates, all 40 1958, when the Hungarian government an-): with President Bush during his visit here was moved by Claudia Rosett's us of the inherent nature of communist re- Imre Nagy. four members of his govern- years old at the time, were hanged. His nounced that he, Gimes and Maleter were July 11 to 13. hic description of the brutal and tragic gimes-persecution, repression and ter- ment and more than 230 others executed minister of state, Geza Losonczy, who be- executed the previous day after being con- The Bush visit is being eagerly antici- ts in Tiananmen Square ("The Party rorism aimed at people, often in during the reprisals that followed the So- gan a hunger strike in prison, is said to demned on the 15th. Some believe Nagy pated by Hungary's Communist regime. It the Trigger," editorial page, June 5). the name of the people With one eye on viet invasion of November 1956. have been choked to death on Dec. 21, 1957, *could have saved himself by lining up be- is facing multiparty elections within a rtheless, I believe she is trying to Beijing, we should turn the other toward In splendid morning sunshine, 250,000 while being force-fed. Nagy's cabinet se- hind Janos Kadar. who betrayed Nagy's year. An internal division could dethrone è a political point that is not applica- Moscow. Dramatic events are unfurling jammed Heroes' Square. With solemn mel- cretary. Jozsef Szilagyi, was executed on government when be vanished from Buda- its chief, Karoly Grosz, even before the au- She refers frequently to the demon- there also amid starry euphoria April 24, 1958, after a trial during which he pest three days before the Russian inva- tumn congress. In the aftermath of the fu- 'ors' hostility to communism. Yet she among Western democracies-the same 1 Europe condemned the Soviet intervention and the sion and declared premier on No- neral Washington has decided to offer 5- "From the student loudspeaker euphoria through which we saw China until puppet regime it brought to power. The vember 1. Mr. Kadar, whose signature ap- year, instead of 2-year terms of most-fa- e the stirring communist anthem, the just a few weeks By Peter Keresztes legs of Nagy's defense minister, six-foot- parently was stamped on Nagy's death vored-nation trade status to the country mationale, which the demonstrators Our yearning for peace is SO strong that five Pal Maleter, were broken, apparently warrant, said recently that his conscience and to grant certain investment insurance ed many times that night.' at times it clouds our vision of reality. It S0 he would fit into his temporary burial troubles him somewhat over the deed: for U.S. corporations doing business he says students moved toward happened in the "detente" of the 1970s, and odies by Schubert, Mozart and Beethoven, crate. Miklos Gimes was an editor who af- If so, that is something he hid well for here. 1, shouting 'Fascists! Fascism! until it may be happening again now. We look to they heard a reading of the martyrs' list. ter the Soviet invasion composed demands the three decades of his rule, during which That alone won't rescue the country's soldiers again began shooting. (Ap- Beijing and to Moscow with hope that On the colonnade of Hungary's ancient for the restoration of Nagy's government 1956 was a taboo topic. But since Mr. Ka- 1 economy. Hungary must pay 120% of its ently they didn't shout: "Commie eventually democracy will prevail, but we kings, six banners of the Hungarian tri- and for an independent and neutral Hun- dar's ouster as party chief a year ago. the export income to service its foreign debt. 's!") She makes no reference to the stu- must remember that brutal totalitarian re- color were stretched on a black backdrop. gary. Maleter, Gimes and Nagy were put subject has become current. With Mikhail The standard of living is deteriorating. In .its' demands for an end to corruption, gimes are not easily transformed. A hole in each symbolized the holes free- to death 31 years ago Friday. Gorbachev acknowledging SO many Com- the capital one now sees the poor rummag, d there is nothing in her account to show MICHAEL A. ROSEN dom fighters had left in 1956 when they Nagy had started out as a docile con- munist mistakes, the Hungarian party ing in garbage bins for food. Headlines tell at the students were opposed to commu- Los Angeles tore the socialist seals from Hungarian formist in the Communist apparatus. As could no longer deny the victims of 1956 a 1,28,000, people competing for fewer than m per se. She adds that China's reform- banners. A procession of mourners piled interior minister in the 1940s he set up the proper burial. As interest in the funeral 900 flats offered by the Budapest housing inded party chief, Zhao Ziyang, had ex- Going Nowhere Fast flowers at the catafalque. Many foreign secret police force, which in the end mur- grew, some in the Communist party seized authority. The country needs fundamental ressed some sympathy for the students' governments-but not Albania, China, dered him. What set Nagy apart was a hu- the opportunity to join. A government changes, such as absolute property rights mocratic demands. (That's Communist Regarding your May 24 Centennial North Korea and Romania-paid respects, manitarian instinct and a tendency toward statement declared that the party today is and a price reform that frees rather than carrying forth Nagy's reform politics. The Photocopy-Preservation party chief.") Journal on Igor Sikorsky: Another interest- as did representatives from Poland's Soli- moderation: Nagy eulogized Stalin as "the arbitrarily inflates prices. That is being I'm concerned that here at home brutal- ing aspect of Mr. Sikorsky's career is that darity and Czechoslovakia's Charter 77. great leader of all humanity"; but when current prime minister, Miklos Nemeth, avoided because it would create political y is widely accepted as characteristic of he built a huge, three-engined biplane in The eulogies by the colleagues of Nagy, Nagy first became prime minister in 1953, and reformist Politburo member, Imre heat that a weakling authoritarian regime ommunism and that any kind of anti-com- which Rene Fonck, the French World War including Gen. Bela Kiraly, who directed he dissolved the forced labor camps. He Pozsgay, paid their respects Friday. could not survive. nunism is preferable by far. Thus, Presi- ace, was to fly the Atlantic with a crew of the Hungarian national guard's defense accepted his own purge in 1955 and re- This has caused some resentment. The The nascent opposition still faces its ent-Bush, in his otherwise commendable three men. Reputedly, it had a bed, a stove against Marshal Zhukov's attackers, were mained faithful to the party line even after representative of the independent youth or- own difficulties. The nine alternative atement denouncing the unrestrained use for hot meals, two radios and red leather concilliatory. They urged the nation to the outbreak of the revolution in 1956. ganization, FIDESZ, Victor Orban, said at movements that have begun a dialogue force in China, saw no evil in our sup- upholstery. But the overloaded plane seek independence, justice and democracy, When the Idea of a multiparty system was the funeral, We feel that we owe no grati- with the party on how to hold the elections at of fascism in Central America. Must crashed during takeoff, killng two of the not vengeance. Representatives of the or- broached his response was, "Not while I tode for the fact that after 31 years we have difficulty agreeing among them- be so intent upon beholding the beam in crew. ganizer, a major political opposition move- live! He had a change of heart only after may-bury our dead,-[the-party] deserves selves They lack the organization, pro- r brother's eye, that we consider not Charles Lindbergh, rightfully believing ment, the Democratic Forum, politely as- he realized the depth of democratic senti- no thanks for the fact that today our politi- gram and candidates to be able to stage a = huge mote in own eye? that four men weren't necessary for flying sisted the crowds. Unarmed police directed ment. On Oct. 24, 1956. he became prime cal organizations can operate.' Mr. Orban Solidarity challenge." Nevertheless, GEORGE J. BERNSTEIN across the Atlantic, said he would have traffic. minister again-this time in the revolution- called for forcing the party to submit to the political gains Hungary has achieved in empia Fields III. ripped out all that extra weight in favor of Among the six coffins was an empty ary government. free elections and suggested that "if we the last 12 months are nothing short of as- more fuel. one, marked "Martyrs of '56." in memory Nagy refused to believe the Soviets don't lose sight of the ideals of 1956, we tonishing. This past weekend Hungarians Ms. Rosett eloquently describes the Chi- THOMAS A. SOUSA of the 230 still in unindentified graves. were preparing an attack until the tanks can elect a government that will Immedi- regained their national pride se fighting for reforms using rocks and Palo Alto, Calif. There have been countless other victims of reached the city center on Nov 4. The Rus- ately begin discussions for the withdrawal tles against AK-47s and armored per- political persecution over the, past 40 sians deposed him later that day, and he of Russian troops. The statement, as well Mr Keresztes is deputy editorial page nel carriers. How different the story Science US. Politics: years. Those who escaped murder suffered was given refuge at the Yugoslav em: as anti- Soviet demonstrations organized by editor of The Wall Street Journal/ Eu- ght have been if Chinese citizens had the internment, forced labor, deportation and bassy. Assured safe passage from the FIDESZ the night before, brought a rela- rope. ght to keep and bear arms. Arrested Development OTHER A12 THE WALL STREET JOURNAL MONDAY, JUNE 19, 1989 Hungan POLITICS & POLICY Thrift Bailout Bill: The House's Tough Stance acquisitions immediately. while the Senate from S&L executives for the Democratic a. would delay them for two years so that Congressional Campaign Committee, of 4 sick S&Ls might find buyers. which he heade from 1981 through 1986. $7,000 In The House vote Thursday saw the Dem- The vote occurred on Rep. Coelho's last nia S&L ex Is Likely to Carry Into Negotiations With Senate ocrats, once the industry's stalwart de- fenders, desert their S&L campaign donors in droves, according to a computer-aided By PAULETTE THOMAS -And BROOKS JACKSON The Thrift Bill: The Three Plans tabulation by The Wall Street Journal. Low, level insurance rate Of the top 18 recipients of S&L political Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL WASHINGTON-The tough mood that BUSH PLAN HOUSE SENATE action committee money during the past three elections, only one voted for the prevailed in the House as it approved its Minimum capital amendment sponsored by Rep. Henry savings and loan overhaul bill last week guaranteed for 10 years requirements, including Hyde (R., III.) that would have relaxed seems certain to carry over in its negotia- good will (% of assets) 3-6% 3% 3% tions with the Senate. capital standards. He was Illinois Rep. It's clear. as the House and Senate be- Timetable for eliminating Frank Annunzio of Chicago, until recently Get affordable. level premium life insurance with Trendsetter Leve gin selecting their committee negotiators good will as capital 10 years 5'years 25 years the headquarters of the U.S. League of 10 One low rate guaranteed not to increase for ten full years. Quality Savings Institutions.; protection from Transamerica, one of the countr insurance leaders. this week, that the S&L industry can't look Limits on Must be sold junk bonds Mr. Annunzio, for years among the to Congress for the sort of exemptions and 11% of portfolio within 2 yrs. 11% of portfolio Call staunchest of the industry's allies on the favors that it has historically been given in for details now 1-800-245-3322, Ext. 10A How $50 billion Borrowings by past S&L legislation. Treasury Borrowings by Banking Committee, received $29,660 in TRENDSETTER LEVEL 10 POLICY will be raised quasi-government borrowings quasi-government PAC funds. He remained loyal even while Instead, when President Bush receives Annual Premium For First 10 Years, Preferred Nonsmoker (1st Year, 10 years renewal premium) agency agency other members who received more were the $157 billion legislation this summer, voting against the amendment. Banking % $100,000 Policy $250,000 Policy probably before the August recess.- the When banks may buy Issue Age 1st Year* Years 2-10 Ist Year* Years 2-10 odds are heavy that it will more closely re- healthy S&Ls 2 yrs. Immediately 2 yrs. Committee member Rep. Richard Lehman 30 Male $138 S147 Sm255 $. 278 (D.: Calif.) received the most. $50.169, and semble the House version, with tougher Female 132 140 240 260 Aids low-income housing No Yes No was among the California Democrats who rules regarding how an S&L must account Male 203 219 418 458 unanimously voted down the Hyde amend- 40 Female 168 181 330 363 for its capital, what it may invest in, and expected to be unusually large. House Rudman deficit-reduction law, a precedent ment. Male 383 419 868 958 how far it may stray from its mission of Banking Committee Chairman Henry Gon- 50 Photocopy-Preservation the Bush administration is loath to set. Republicans, on the other hand, were Female 9314 343 695 768 home mortgage lending. zalez ID., TexasT is likely to appoint senior Treasury Secretary Nicholas Brady, re- more likely to favor their S&L benefactors 60 Male 812 896 1,940 2,150 The Bush administration, jubilant over members before including junior members acting to the House vote, said he was dis- Female 648 714 1,530 1,695 than were Democrats. GOP members who the House bill's strict standards, even ap- who are sympathetic to his views. The appointed but stopped short of mentioning Premiums shown reflect 10% reduction first year base premium rate when paid annually voted with the S&L lobby got an average of Includes policy fee ($60.00) Rates for preferred standard nonsmokers and pears to be backing down in a dispute over House must also appoint members from at a veto. And House Democrats pushing for $6,515, while Republicans who opposed the available Graded Premium Whole Life Policy. Policy not railable in all jurisdictions Available through issue the president's more, costly financing 75. After 10 years, premiums increase annually until 75 least four other committees that helped their financing plan believe they have mo- 01 industry's position got somewhat less, - scheme, which was soundly thrashed in the draft the bill. Members say privately that mentum going into the conference. "I $4,809. House. To find out more about low, level insurance rates, call -800-245 3322 Ext. 10A this will make it all but impossible to meet think we are going to be able to persuade a In' total, current House members re- Or mail to: Transamerica Occidental Life Insurance Company, "We're on a macho legislative trip Speaker Thomas Folev's (D., Wash. Lob- senator or two,' said Rep. Charles ceived nearly $2.2 million in contributions P.O. Box 15097, Los Angeles, CA 90015 down the road of toughness, said Rep. ective of a compromise by July 4: Schumer (D., N.Y.). from thrifts and their trade associations Thomas Ridge (R., Pa. ), who was on the Name The surest bet is that the strict account- Likely conferees are also privately pre- during the past three elections. Those who Iosing side of an effort to relax the ac- Address ing rules approved by the House-which dicting that the House bill prohibiting S&L voted with the industry on the crucial capi- counting-standards that emerged in the fi- hundreds of S&Ls don't currently meet- investment in high-yield-jun bonds will be (City Zip nal House bill. tal requirement issue received only are likely to emerge in the final bill. As moderated. Easing the restriction to 3% to slightly higher contributions- average Phone That appraisal extends to the Senate 6% of a thrift's portfolio may be a compro- Date of Birth IRANSAMERICA chamber. "The atmosphere in which the House members grew jittery under gfow- of $5,847 over the year period did ing public scrutiny, in fact, it passed capi- mise with the Senate's 11% limit. those who voted "against the S&L lobby. mail Smoker Nonsmoker LIFE COMPANIES conference begins is an atmosphere of tal rules that are much tougher than those Anothersplit thedifferencecompromise The latter got an average of $5,563. Male Female strictness, stringency and toughness," said Kevin Gottlieb, staff director of the Senate proposed in the Bush plan, which would is likely on the issue of when bank holding Among those who voted against the S&L for Insurance Broker. have allowed some exemptions. companies will be permitted to acquire lobby was former Democratic Whip Tony THE POWER OF THE PYRAMID Banking Committee. "That is expected to Amount Needed YOU have an impact on the discussions that OC: The members looked at it from healthy acquisitions prohibited by Coelho (D., Calif.), who got $14,595 and the tware current law. The House would allow those cur between the two houses. perception of how is this going to look in who had raised many times that amount To the surprise of most, the House legis- the next election if I'm not tough here, llation is more stringent than the Senate's said Rep. William McCollum (R., Fla. on the critical issue of how much private who reversed his position to vote for the capital a thrift must maintain to back its tougher standard, despite its adverse ef assets. The Senate would allow non cash fect on many Florida institutions: intangibles, such as good will, to count as More difficult to predict is how the con some capital for 25 years, while the House ferees will resolve differences in the com would prohibit intangibles after five years. plicated financing plan The Senate ap: The House version has increased even proved the Bush plan, which would use in more than the Senate's how much a thrift dustry bonds that wouldn't be carried on musrinvest in home mortgages. A confron- the federal budget. tation also lies ahead on the House bill's The House shrugged off an earlier veto special breaks for low-Income home threat and passed, 280-146, a plan to in- buyers.' which the Senate rejected. clude the cost of financing on the federal: The shape of the final bill will be influ- budget. The move lowers the final bailout enced in part by who is appointed to the cost by more than S5 billion, but it would conference committee this week, which is require an exemption from the Gramm- THE WASHINGTON POST INSIGHT Tiänanmen: Two Months Later The Myth of Tiananmen Square The Students Talked Democracy, But They Didn't Practice It By Sarah Lubman' A MERICA embraced the stu- dent-led Chinese democracy movement as a new wave of change. But the awkward truth about the movement, behind its fa- miliar symbols, is that student dem- onstrators' didn't understand the de- mocracy they craved-and they were even less able to put it into practice. The American response to the Chinese democracy movement and its suppression was based on the un- derstandable but emotional assump- tion that the students and their sup- porters not only want the same kind of political system we have, but, if encouraged, would have gravitated naturally towards it. Reporters cov- ering the students during the days DAVID McLIMANS FOR THE WASHINGTON POST. leading up to the ultimate confron- tation in Tiananmen square, occa- resembled the communist state in continuing a class boycott instead. 'AVANNS sionally noted that the students' calls structure as well as operation. The She responded defiantly, "What kind for democracy were nowhere near as Self-Governing Association had a of democracy is that, if I can't even sophisticated as either U.S. sympa- standing committee, liaison offices give my opinion? It's no better than thizers, or the paranoid Chinese gov- with provincial students organiza- the Cultural Revolution!" ernment, wanted to believe. Even tions and the foreign press, and a Even students who have been in more striking, to an observer of the tireless propaganda department. The the United States for some time can activities in and around the square, movement undoubtedly needed or- find it hard to translate their yearn- was the fact that in their pursuit of ganization, but the form it took grew ings for change into a specific polit- democracy, the students created a as bureaucratic as the adversary it- ical platform. The director of Yale self. system much like the one they, University's student-teaching pro- wanted to reform. A proposed draft for the Beijing gram in China remarked recently Left to their own devices, the stu- University Autonomous Union, that, despite their earnest desire for dents created an overly bureaucrat- posted on campus in late April, called change, Chinese students and dissi- ic, highly policed system which, like for an advisory commission of elders dents now in the United States are similar to the commission which has the old, operated on personal con- also having trouble finding a common been so active recently in the gov- nections, or guanxi. Credentials to voice and advancing their thinking enter the inner sanctum and leaders' ernment. A student who belonged to beyond the totalitarian system that is headquarters of the tent city could the Gaozilian and who regularly at- all they know. tended its meetings complained that The students can't be blamed for be obtained through guanxi but could little was actually accomplished. "We just as easily be rejected if the wrong recreating the old in the name of the don't decide any policy. People just new. The fault is not their own but person was in charge on a particular sit around arguing over who's going lies with- a restrictive educational day. Security around the martyrs' me- to fill what position and what their system and years of indoctrination responsibilities in the hierarchy morial, the symbolic center of which are proving hard to shake. should be," he said on the morning of Tiananmen square and the site of the Their vagueness about democracy is June 3. the result of an educational system students financial and propaganda which presents, limited-and bi- operations; was especially tight. On S ome student leaders realized Fased-Information about the West. one day in late May during the the weakness of the move- height of the hunger-strike-turned- ment's intellectual underpin- sit-in, even a signed pass bearing the nings. But as one remarked, "People official seal of the Beijing Students' I n an ominous indication of what the future holds for the current criticize us for being too vague, for generation of college-age Chin- Self-Governing Association (Gao- not being specific enough about the ese, an American academic visiting zilian) wasn't enough to penetrate kind of system we want. But just Beijing University in late June was security lines. Only the chance sight- making people conscious of democ- told that courses the West are to ing of a student with whom this re intracy is a big step for us be reduced University students in porter occasionally played volleyball, That may be true. But the clearest Beijing say that extra "political ed- wand-who-had-aince-climbed-the ranks indication of the students inability been added to of the Tiananmen hierarchy, allowed go beyond certain ideological barri- the fall curriculum, and new admis- entry into a press conference. ers came from the language they sions are to be halved. What began as an efficient and used to describe, their own move- U.S. programs play an important necessary security system degener- ment. role in keeping cultural and educa- ated into a petty abuse of authority In the May 4 issue of Beijing Uni- tional channels open. Regrettably, Security guards, originally posted to versity's independent student news- U.S. decisions to suspend some im- protect the hunger strikers from in- paper, one student wrote, The tide portant exchange programs may in- filtrators as well as the hordes of of democracy allows no obstruction; advertently aid the triumphant hard- foreign press in town for Soviet lead- all must comply with this trend. If line regime's stepped-up attacks on er Mikhail Gorbachev's visit, mul- they will be condemned by his- Western ideology. Important aca- tiplied and became increasingly ag- tory." One word has been changed, demic exchanges, such as programs gressive. When out-of-town students but the rhetoric is the same as that sponsored by the National Academy donned red headbands and joined the of Marxist arguments for the histor- of Sciences, have been temporarily security ranks, the problem grew ical inevitability of socialism. Prop- suspended to show opposition to the worse, One security guard on the aganda leaflets used similar lan- government which so brutally steps of the monument, asked who guage. slaughtered its own citizens. Despite his superior was, replied in the man- Students used the same vocabu- the moral impetus behind these sus- ner familiar to anyone who has had lary among themselves. A student pensions, such a response helps per- the frustrating experience of dealing leader, now a fugitive, once de- petuate the very system it intends to with the Chinese bureaucracy, "I scribed fellow student leader Wuer protest. don't know. I'm only responsible for Kaixi as "having no major errors in China's veteran ideologues are this step." his thought." The notion of a single already taking measures to limit ac- The students' makeshift society line of thought intolerant of any de- cess to the West. America has few viation is a familiar one, as veteran means to counteract this crackdown. Sarah Lubman was a student at hardliners in Beijing have been force- But restricting meaningful educa- Hu, Beijing University from last fully reemphasizing. And in early tional and cultural exchange pro- ut September until June. From April to May, one Beijing University student grams when they are needed most July, she did free-lance reporting for mag was called a "traitor" for opposing an only helps limit alternatives to Chi- dent The Washington Post in Beijing. on-campus demonstration in favor of na's existing system. Photocopy-Preservation PATRICK BUCHANAN Requiem for kinder, gentler BUCHANAN John Tower is the From page D1 I f a rising appreciation of Chris- latest casualty of a tian sobriety and the sanctity Tower, continue to insist that we pay of marriage were propelling annual homage at the altar of Dr. savage new the lynching of John Tower, Martin Luther King Jr., whose wom- there might be redeeming social anizing washotorious? partisanship. value to this sorry soap opera. Of the làst five Democratic presi- But there is not. Among those dents, three, Franklin D. Roosevelt, about to cast stones at their old col- Mr. Kennedy and Lyndon B. John- morality; he is the latest casualty of league are some of the most compul- son, had extramarital affairs; and a savage new partisanship. sive boozers and satyrs in the U.S. two, Harry S. Truman and LBJ, had Whatever the origin of Georgia Senate, and among those standing the same familiarity with the sauce Sen. Sam Nunn's concern about Mr. alongside Mr. Tower are senators as Mr. Tower. How can members; of Tower, when - after Mr. Tower gave whose private lives are models of the Senate majority look at them- his word he would-give up alcohol - probity, sobriety and rectitude. selves in the mirror if they ruin Mr. Sam switched his argument to con- Conceding he had been a heavy Tower's career for personal failings flict of interest, he gave the game drinker in the 1970s, that he had not or character flaws common to their away. President Bush should reflect always been faithful to his marriage own greatest heroes? long and hard at what has happened vows, Mr. Tower threw up a chal- There has long been a tradition in here. lenge Wednesday the U.S. Senate that if a man' was Accepting this city's thesis that to the people qualified for a Cabinet appointment President Reagan's problems with about to destroy and if his personal behavior did not his public career: Congress stemmed from the com- impede the performance of his of- bativeness and partisanship of his "I accept that the fice, he would be approved. The more ideological followers, George secretary of de- president was as entitled to have his Bush offered Congress a new deal. fense. must ad- own men in the executive branch as He held out the hand of friend- here to a higher members of Congress were to hire, ship; he opened up his house; he de- standard than and fire, congressional staff clared he would never question their members of the motives; he even endorsed their out- U.S. Senate. But, my question is, A gain, if the Senate's opposition rageous pay raise. His payment: The how much lower to Mr. Tower bespoke newer, Senate Democratic majority is higher standards for all ap- about to give Mr. Bush an unprec- an acceptable standard is there John Kennedy pointees to public office, it would be edented political insult - rejection defensible. But that is not the case. of a first Cabinet appointment on the for members of the Senate?' There is no indication the Senate in- unprecedented grounds of personal Apparently, however, when it tends to hold itself to the standard by morality. comes to hypocrisy, there is no depth which it is denouncing and con- With its vote, the Senate Armed the Democratic majority will not ex- demning John Tower. There is no in- Services Committee sent Mr. Bush a plore. dication that the Democratic major- quasi-ultimatum. The price of peace Consider. These same Demo- ity now wishes the Senate Ethics with Congress, Mr. President, is veto cratic senators about to terminate Committee to take up charges of phi- power over appointments and policy Mr. Tower's career over allegations landering and drinking against its decisions. Just as Jim Wright took of drinking and philandering, to a own membership. There is no evi- Central America away from Pres- man, celebrate the memory of John dence these pious judges of the per- ident Reagan, Sam Nunn now wants F. Kennedy Yet, within days of Mr. sonal morality of John Tower have the Pentagon portfolio. Kennedy's election in 1960, his clos- the least intention of imposing the The time is coming when Mr. est aide declared, "This administra- same standards on themselves. Bush is going to have to choose: be- tion is going to do for sex what Eisen- When all 11 Democrats on the tween getting along with Congress, hower did for golf"; and JFK made Senate Armed Services Committee and remaining true to his constit- good on that commitment. vote to reject the nominee approved uency; between good relations with How can one consistently and by all nine Republicans, the stan- the City of Washington, and fidelity credibly deny Mr. Tower the Depart- dard of judgment is not ethical, but to the people who elected him. ment of Defense for allegations of womanizing and continue to insist political. John Tower is not the hap- Goodbye, kinder, gentler; hello, us that JFK be held up as a paragon of less victim of a resurgent, stricter and them. political virtue? How can the same Democrats, about to destroy John see BUCHANAN, page D4 Patrick J. Buchanan is'a nation- ally syndicated columnist. Photocopy-Preservation 5/19/89 THE WASHINGTON POST Charles Krauthammer Why Play Gorbachev's Game? Today's conventional wisdom, repeated daily threatened to violate the INF Treaty and stop by the nation's herd of independent minds, is dismantling Soviet missiles. It is inconceivable that the administration has been timid, slow, that ân American secretary of state could ever entirely inadequate in responding to the Gorba- make such a threat or ever carry it out. chev challenge. The cry, left, right and center, is But the best reason for not making unilateral for a foreign policy of boldness and vision.. American concessions is that we do not have to. The complaint starts with the Bush style: In the We are not in economic crisis. We are not face of a virtuoso performance by the traveling reeling from the ruin of a newly acquired Gorbo circus-like the wholly insignificant and external empire of Afghanistan, Angola, Cambo- breathlessly received SNF (short-range nuclear dia, Ethiopia, Mozambique and Vietnam. We are forces) cuts he announced last week-the presi- not spending 13 to 19 percent of GNP on dent's PR has been woeful. Sure, he unveiled a defense. (We spend 6.7 percent.) We have not carrot-and-stick policy toward Poland and Eastern by foolish overmilitarization-the Soviets explic- Europe at Hamtrainck. Sure, he has advanced itly admit. this in their own press-created an proposals for drastic asymmetrical cuts in conven- opposing alliance that includes all the great tional arms in Europe. Sure, last week at Texas powers of the world. We are winning. It is the A&M, he outlined a new post-Cold War vision of Soviets who are suing for peace in the Cold War. the "integration of the Soviet Union into the It is for suers to make unilateral concessions. community of nations." But the perception, you In the Texas speech, Bush said that the see, is that he is footdragging, and perceptions are United States will respond if the Soviets meet ultimately what count in the politics game. Savor the irony. After eight years of cater- certain tests of good faith. Arthur Schlesinger wauling about Reagan's Wizard of Oz, percep- Jr. is dismayed. "How would we like it if Mr. Gorbachey laid down tests for ITS?" he asks. We tion-is-reality, media manipulation, the press is would not like it, but who cares? Liking is not a now demanding it, in the name of national particularly useful category of thought in inter- security, no less. Without a blush or a memory, national relations. We wrote Japan's constitu- the press is now on Bush's tail for poor Deaver- tion. Would we have liked it if they had written ism: no stage presence, weak backdrops, lousy ours? In this same article, Schlesinger insists scheduling. Bush goes to Texas and gives one of that we have won the Cold War. Well, when you the most important foreign policy speeches of win a war, you do not care one way or the other the decade, and the host of one political talk whether the loser likes your conditions. What is show is obsessed with the fact that he gave it at important is that he respond to them. 4 p.m. Friday, bad for sound-bite coverage. When the complainers get around to sub- And for PR, Bush has allowed his foreign stance, the charge is timidity. Bush is not policy to be called "status quo plus." It is the right advancing bold and decisive enough negotiating idea (when the other guy is committing suicide, positions. Translated, this generally means that stand aside) but a tough sell. He should send for Bush has adopted an incorrect position on SNF the genius who invented the term "affirmative in Europe. The Bush (and British) policy is that action" and get him to think up a virile, New SO long as the Soviets maintain a vastly superior Frontier-like name to embellish the Bush foreign conventional force in Europe, we need to mod- policy. Washington-pining for Reagan, yearning ernize our few remaining nuclear weapons for show-will hall him as a statesman. there. The Germans, who inhabit the battlefield for these SNF nukes (that is the price a nation pays for starting World War II), are naturally anxious to get rid of them. They are, therefore, pushing hard for immediate SNF negotiations. That is not surprising. What is surprising is that so many Americans, from Paul Nitze to Joe Biden, take their view. It is a prescription for political grief. We know exactly what the Soviets want from any SNF negotiations: their elimina- tion. After all, the Soviets, being a continental European power and conventionally superior, do not need short-range nukes to deter war in Europe. We do. Which is why they are the last thing that we should be trading away. If we cave in to the German position, it will be the first. SNF negotiations will be short. Much shorter than the negotiations on conventional arms, which are immensely complicated and harder to verify. With an SNF agreement in. sight, and conventional talks dragging on, Bi- den's next op-ed piece will write itself: "The intransigence of the Bush administration, nig- gling over details of conventional arms reduc- tion, is today holding up the promise of a Central Europe entirely free from the nuclear night- mare. How long can we tolerate The other conventional wisdom complaint against Bush is his failure to respond to Gorba: chev's (announced) unilateral concessions- troop and nuke reductions in Europe- with Photocopy-Preservation unilateral concessions of his own. But doing so would be strategically stupid. Russia is a Euro- pean power. Only by accident, not by nature is America European power, When we pack to go home, we will not be coming back, absent a Pearl Harbor II. The Soviets. when they will S&Ls, a problem Congres. "solved" with a $166 billion bailoa We hear that HUD Secretary Jack iS "- 1 ACM congress L. Kemp is toying with going along with solving, not ignoring. L MIN WAGE Asides 11/11/89 W+ rie in pr Minimum Consistency White House had enough votes to sus- m Earlier this year, President Bush tain a veto but chose to avoid a con- C made a final "take-it-or-leave it" of- frontation. The only permanent losers Sa fer on the minimum wage: an in will be the 200,000 or SO workers ev: un eryone agrees will be priced out of a V. crease to $4.25 an hour over three S! years, and only if accompanied by a job at the $4.25 rate Congress is likely a lower wage for the first six months of to approve today. It is compromises E a job. Now, the White House has de- such as this that convince Washing 1 cided to accept the higher wage over ton's liberals that if they simply stay I only two years. The sub-minimum the course, this administration will wage. would apply only to first time stray from its own course on this and teen-age workers for 90 days. The other issues. Photocopy-Preservation Photocopy-Preservation INTERNATIONAL Gorbachev Criticizes Bush on Pace should be torn down. Mr. Gorbachev, however, without di- rectly mentioning Berlin, said "specific Of Nuclear-Arms Cuts in Europe difficulties" in the Soviet-West German re- lationship shouldn't stand in the way of the common interests of the two nations and of tics as Mr. Kohl fights to retain his party's Europe. Perhaps to reassure his allies, the Soviet Leader Opens Visit grip on power-and perhaps his own job- Soviet leader also praised the contribution prior to European elections Sunday and na- of the East German leadership to main- To West Germany to Say tional elections next year. taining peace and stability in Europe. Mr. Gorbachev was careful to praise Mr. Gorbachev is the most popular for- Delays Aren't Fruitful Mr. Kohl's positive and concrete contribu- eign leader ever in West Germany, as was tion to disarmament, saying that NATO for demonstrated in Bonn when he arrived the first time has stopped dismissing So- yesterday. In contrast to the trip just two viet initiatives out of hand. But he was By PETER GUMBEL weeks ago by President Bush, who was And THOMAS F. O'BOYLE scathing about the substance of President generally ignored by citizens except for a Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL Bush's proposals, which U.S. and West few isolated protests, people flocked to see BONN-Soviet leader Mikhail Gorba- German officials at the time hailed as an the Soviet leader. chev, seeking to reopen a divisive squabble important compromise. As he drove to the residence of West in the NATO alliance, criticized President 'Both in the text and between the lines, German President Richard von Weiz- Bush's recent arms initiatives and said [the NATO document] contains a lot of saecker for an official welcoming cere- there is no basis to delay talks over short- goal-setting and methods of approach that mony, several hundred pedestrians range nuclear weapons are inherited from the period of confronta- crowded by the front: gate to catch a Mr. Gorbachev's remarks, made in a tion, he said. Although welcoming the glimpse. Mr. Gorbachev responded with a dinner speech on the first day of his offi- U.S. decision to cut troops in Europe, he wave from his black Zil limousine. cial visit to West Germany, were his first snidely qualified his praise by suggesting During his visit, Mr. Gorbachev will see reaction to the recent NATO summit, at that the move was long overdue. And he more of the country than he usually does which Bonn and Washington papered over dismissed the U.S.-German compromise on his trips abroad. Following his political their differences on nuclear forces in Eu- formula linking the start of talks on short- talks today, he is scheduled to address a rope. range nuclear arms to the end of talks on group of leading German industrialists in The North Atlantic Treaty Organization conventional forces, saying parallel negoti- Cologne.? agreed at the summit in Brussels to delay ations would be the quickest way to over- However, his official program has been negotiations on the come the anachronism of military con- curtailed, leaving him with a considerable, reduction of short frontation in Europe amount of free time. This has somewhat range nuclear mis Mr. Kohl, in his dinner speech preced- damped the II pre summit euphoria in siles until talks are ing Mr. Gorbachev's, briefly touched on Bonn and prompted speculation that the concluded with the the issue, saying talks on short range nu- Soviet leader needs to keep in close con- Soviet-led Warsaw clear weapons should start "as soon as tact with events taking place back home. Pact on cutting con- possible.¹ He urged Mr. Gorbachev to ventional forces in speed the process by making further re- In an editorial, the influential Frank Europe But Mr ductions in Soviet conventional forces in furter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper con- order to ease the "particularly threaten- cluded that domestic problems such as eth- Gorbachev, whose ing" superiority of the Warsaw Pact. nic unrest and food shortages may make warm welcome in Bonn yesterday was During their first meeting, a 70-minute him vulnerable. "Measured by his suc- session in the chancellor's office that was cesses SO far, Gorbachev's chances aren't a clear demonstra- tion of his enormous attended only by interpreters and two good, the conservative paper said. "The popularity in Ger- aides, Mr. Gorbachev and Mr. Kohl both West can try to help, but it must always be Mikhail Gorbachev prepared for the possibility that this bold many, sought to cap- outlined in general terms their positions on italize on continuing unease here about the a range of international and bilateral is- experiment could end one day as suddenly concentration of nuclear weapons on Ger- sues. Both sides termed the talks "friendly as it began.' man soil. and constructive," but made clear that "The question of the complete elimina- more substantive discussions will take tion of tactical nuclear means must not be place today. They are expected to issue a removed from the agenda," he told a grim- joint political declaration that is being looking Chancellor Helmut Kohl. "We are touted as the highlight of Mr. Gorbachev's convinced that there is no reason to post- four-day stay in West Germany. pone the negotiations." Despite the show of friendship and good Polls show that some 70% of the Ger- will on the first day, the two leaders man public favor immediate negotiations clearly remain at odds over one of the to at least reduce the numbers of short- trickiest questions of their relationship: Offer Ends June 30th C range missiles, most of which are based in the status of Berlin and ties between the Germany. Many were disappointed by the two German states. Mr. Kohl called the NATO decision. The issue has assumed in- separation of East and West Germany "an creasing importance in West German poli- open wound," and said the Berlin Wall 386/DEMOS AN APOLOGY Better Than New, For Thousands Less Ultra High BUSH DISCOVERS THE 'LID': President Bush, stroll- ing from Oval Office to White House residential quarters Tuesday evening, questioned why reporters still were hang- ing around the press office. He was told they hadto wait for him to leave and his staff to declare the "lid." He asked what a lid was and was told one of his aides announces it each evening, via telephone hooked up to press room loud- speakers. It signals there'll be no more news that day. Ap- parently intrigued, Bush asked for the phone, and at 6:40 p.m. startled reporters heard his voice booming from the speakers: "Ladies and gentlemen of the press, the president having gone home for the day, there is a lid on." Photocopy-Preservation THE WASHINGTON POST WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 16, 1989 F3 STUART AUERBACH The Pacific Economic Compact: Bob Hawke's Plan Moves It Closer to Reality or decades, academics and business executives compact should come in November, when Australia will neighbors, to take a leadership role in an Asian economic moves to the West by Soviet President Mikhail have touted the vision of a Pacific economic host an exploratory meeting of trade and foreign community. Gorbachev created a new urgency to strengthen community, binding that vast region together in a ministers of major nations in the region. Baker and U.S. But Asian nations, with still-vivid memories of Japan's democratic and free market institutions across the way that could approximate the European Common Trade Representative Carla Hills are expected to attend attempt to conquer the region militarily during World Pacific as the glue that held them together-the fear of Market. for the United States. War II, are fearful of the newfound Japanese economic Soviet expansionism-is abating. The idea has had to overcome the vast economic, Canada will be there also, as will Japan, South Korea, muscle and have no desire to see Tokyo become the The official placed the Pacific initiative in the context political, social and cultural diversity of the nations of the Australia and New Zealand. It remains unclear just how dominant power of the Pacific. of a series of moves by the Bush administration to take Pacific rim-which stretches in a vast arc from the West many of the ASEAN nations-Brunei, Indonesia, For that reason, many Asianinations opposed the the lead in a new international environment in which the Coast of the Americas through Southeast Asia to Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand-will original Hawke plan because it excluded the United threat from Moscow no longer is the driving force. At Japan and Australia. Pulling together these disparate attend. Since the meeting is limited to free market States but included Japan. They made it clear they the NATO summit, for instance, President Bush parts is far harder than creating a Common Market from economies, China was not invited. And out of sensibility wanted Washington involved to act as a counterweight to stressed new missions for the Western alliance in the Europe, a process that has been in progress for 30 years. to China's claims on their territory, neither were Hong Tokyo in any Pacific grouping. areas of the environment, nuclear proliferation and Under pressures of emerging trade blocs in Europe Kong or Taiwan, even though they are economic forces The idea of a Pacific compact appealed to Baker when regional issues. And in Asia, the administration is and North America, however, a limited version of a Pacific economic compact now appears at hand. Australia in the region. he was Treasury secretary, and he was planning for a seeking new ways to demonstrate that the United States Australian Prime Minister Bob Hawke was picked as Pacific economic conference before he resigned a year intends to remaim engaged in a leadership role in the and Japan favor it, as does the United States. Secretary Pacific in spite of the Japan's economic muscle. of State James A. Baker III, who is pushing the idea as a host because he was responsible for the latest revival of ago to run the Bush presidential campaign. Although he way to foster democratic, free-market values in Asia, has a Pacific compact in a speech last January. He acted never publicly offered his plan, Baker was leaning toward In his Asia Society speech and in a meeting last month called it "an idea whose time has come." largely out of concerns that the world was dividing itself a grouping that would encompass the United States, with ASEAN foreign ministers, Baker tried to ease "For the first time there is real momentum and into trading blocs that would leave his nation standing Japan and the four industrialized countries of concerns that a new Pacific organization would create a support in the governments for it," said R. Sean alone. To counter that, he devised a plan that would Asia-Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan. new trade bloc that could undermine existing free trade Randolph of the Pacific Basin Economic Council, a wrap Australia-a nation populated largely by As secretary of state, Baker repackaged his idea in a compacts. private organization based in San Francisco. immigrants from Britain that traditionally has looked major speech last June to the Asia Society in New York He didn't fully succeed. The ASEAN meeting was The fast-growing countries of the Association of more toward Europe than to its Asian neighbors-more in which he called for "a new Pacific partnership" marked by attacks by European officials who were upset Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have expressed closely into the fast-growing Pacific economic involving an area of the world in which U.S. economic that the EC would not be included in the regional reservations, fearful that their six-nation grouping would framework. interests were growing. A historic shift took place early grouping. "We do not like the creation of trading blocs," be swamped by the more powerful economies on either His concerns stemmed from the signing in January of in the 1980s, when U.S. trade across the Pacific for the said Edwige Avice, a French Foreign Ministry official. edge of the Pacific rim. They also fear that a Pacific the U.S.-Canada free trade agreement, which Australia first time became larger than trade across the Atlantic But the real test will come in November when economic organization would undermine international feared would emerge as a North American trading bloc; with its traditional partners in Europe. By 1988, reluctant ASEAN nations will have to decide whether to free trade rules that they depend on to allow them to sell the creation of an integrated market within the 12-nation trans-Pacific trade totaled $271 billion-far more than accept the Hawke invitation or not. Without a large their products around the world. European Community, and movements by Japan, which the $186 billion in U.S. trade across the Atlantic. representation from ASEAN, the compact will die Nonetheless, the first manifestation of the new Pacific has been investing in the economies of its Asian A senior administration official suggested that the stillborn. Photocopy-Preservation So far, neither Mr. Bush nor Mr. Darman has demonstrated a determination to tackle the problem. Instead, they joined Con- gress in seeking ever more artful ways to avoid It by adopting one-time savings and URNAL. accounting gimmicks. To be sure, the deficit has declined in the past few years. But that decline is entirely the result of a rising surplus in the Social Security trust fund. That money should be invested to help defray the future retirement costs of the baby boomers; instead, it is be- ing used to paper over the deficit. That's yet-another symptom of Mr. Darman's na- WHITE OAK, MARYLAND tional now-now-ism. In his speech, Mr. Darman praised Presi- dent Bush for his new plan to send men to The Outlook Mars. But that announcement was a symp- tom of the very problem that Mr. Darman decries. The cost of the program will be Dick Darman some $400 billion over the next 30 years, and the White House hasn't given a hint of where Wants His Maypo! that much money might bei found. At a breakfast meeting last week, Mr. Darman again cited the Kennedy adminis- VASHINGTON tration as the model! Taxes, asia percentage If President Bush is still having problems with the "vision "thing," he 25 Years Later may want to look across the street to Percent of GNP his budget director, Richard Darman. 1963 1988 In a recent speech, Mr. Darman gave a Total spending 18.9% 22.3% sweeping diagnosis of the ills afflicting American society and offered the out- Social Security lines of a vision for the future and Medicare 2.6 6.2 Unlike most people in Washington, the Other spending 16.3 16.1 budget director writes his own speeches. He spends hours turning over phrases in his Total receipts 18.1% 19.1% mind and wakes in the middle of the night to Social Security scratch down thoughts on the pad at his bed- and Medicare 3.4 7.0 side table. His staff says that months before this speech, Mr. Darman had them chasing Other receipts 14.7 12.1 after tidbits of pop-culture trivia to be used in illustrating his points. of the nation's total,output, were lower dur- The theme of the speech was that ing the Kennedy years, he argued. And yet America is suffering from a cultural the budget was closer to balance, and twice now now-ism"- a "short-hand label for as much money, as a percentage of GNP, our collective short-sightedness, our ob- was being spent on space. If President Ken- session with the here and now; our re- nedy could do it, why can't we? luctance to address the future." The en- The answer to that question is found be- tire nation, he charged, is like the hind the budget numbers. Spending has spoiled child In the '50s commercial who soared in the past 2½ decades, from 18.9% screams: "I want my Maypo! I want it. of the nation's output to 22.3%. But all of NOW!" that can be accounted for by the increase in The manifestations of cultural now-now- the two.programs that care for the elderly- ism, he suggests, are everywhere. Rising Social Security and Medicare. If you exclude drug abuse is a sign that young people care those two programs, the picture looks very too much about the next two hours and too different. Spending is roughly unchanged, little about the next two decades. The de- while taxes have dropped. cline in education reflects a society lacking Can we return to Camelot? The budget a commitment to future generations. The numbers make It clear that such a move nation's economic problems stem from a would require action on one of two fronts. culture that favors current consumption Either the soaring cost of programs for the over long-term savings, and institutions that elderly must be drastically contained or "feel obliged to chase near-term financial taxes to pay for the rest of government must plays. be increased. President Bush and Mr. Dar- To Mr. Darman, the "pre-eminent sym- man have pledged to do neither; a politi- bol of public policy commitment to the fu- cally acceptable solution would probably ture" is the space program. He delivered his have to involve some of both. speech on the 20th anniversary of Neil Arm- At the end of his speech, Mr. Darman strong's walk on the moon, and he praised warned against the dangers of focusing too President Kennedy's expansive vision in much on the budget deficit. The American launching the moon program. The current Dream," he said, "is not meant to be fil- generation seems to have lost that vision, he tered through green eyeshades." Fair point. lamented, and "moonwalking" has become But the American Dream also shouldn't be a Michael Jackson dance that gives the ap- offered up as a free lunch. If the president pearance of forward movement, but is actu- is serious about his plans for sending a man ally a backward slide. to Mars, he'd better start thinking of ways For all its fun metaphors and fine to pay for it. Otherwise, he may start sound- rhetoric, however, Mr. Darman's speech ing like that kid in the Maypo ad. was tarnished by more than a touch of ALAN MURRAY deceit. The budget director's first re- sponsibility, after all, is the budget. And the budget's massive deficits over the past decade provide the most brazen symbol of the nation's fallure to tend to the future. Photocopy-Preservation But in private; relations between Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan and Treasury Secretary Nicholas Brady, in particular, have been severely strained by Mr. Brady's continual prodding for easier credit, officials say. Michael Boskin, the chairman of the, President's Council of Economic Advisers, enjoys better rapport with the Fed chairman but has also kept the heat on. President Bush himself has also weighed in with the Fed chairman on 50 CENTS several occasions, meeting with him in the Oval Office and gently urging an easier credit policy. Hard Economics Public Fight Possible If the economy slows further, the ten- sions are bound to' multiply, and the Even a 'Soft Landing closed-door skirmishes may turn into open battle. "It may become necessary in the Could Prove Painful, future to go public;" one administration of- ficial confides. The Bush team has made no secret of Hurt Administration its view that ai Fed-engineered soft landing isn't necessary to keep inflation under con- trol. The administration's current forecast Tension Grows as President shows real growth softening only slightly, to a 2.6% pace next year, and then return- And Aides Push the Fed ing to 3%-plus in subsequent years. Mr. Boskin says such a forecast is "consistent To Ease Its Credit Policy with stabilizing, and eventually falling, in- flation And Budget Director Richard Darman insists that "neither at recession What Bush Needs: Perfection or a soft landing is inevitable:' But in the battle over economic policy, the Fed:holds most of the cards. Adminis- By ALAN MURRAY tration officials have little power to Influ- Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL ence the economy over the next year and a WASHINGTON-Fasten your seat belts. half, but the Fed can do a great deal by The much-heralded "soft landing" may in- manipulating short-term interest rates. If clude some hard knocks-not just in the the central bank is determined to slow eco- economy, but at the White House. nomic growth to less than 2%, it can. Economic growth so far this year has Indeed, many economists believe that skidded to a 1.7% annual rate. And the the Fed's tight-money policies earlier this Federal Reserve's latest forecast suggests year have already set the stage for not just that growth will slow further, hovering be- a soft landing but a full-fledged recession. tween 1% and 1.5% through the middle of And at least one Fed official agrees. next year. That's just the sort of "soft landing" many economists and Wall Street Crash Landing? investors hope for. "The next six months or SO are But behind that benign-sounding expres- cooked," says Fed Governor Martha sion lies a painful truth: Even a soft land- Seger, who has tended to favor an easier ing-with its benefits of avoiding both a re- monetary policy than most other gover- cession and a surge in inflation-would in- nors. "It's going to be very difficult to land flict a lot of pain. It could throw half a the aircraft in a nice; gentle way. Instead, million people onto the unemployment we may take a wing off. rolls, according to Data Resources Inc. It Right now, one thing that seems clear is could cut $30. billion out of corporate that the economy is slowing. In the second profits. And it could shave $800 off the an- quarter, growth hit its lowest level in nual income of the average American fam- nearly three years. And while the White ily. House ponders the effects on its revenue And just as important to President forecasts and on the 1990 congressional Bush, such a slowdown could quickly bal- elections, the "soft landing" already looks loon the budget deficit by as much as $25 like anything but to many Americans. billion, threatening his "read my lips" "We're not going to have a recession in campaign pledge against a tax increase. the technical sense, but it's going to be Mounting Pressures very unpleasant for certain key sectors For the White House, in short, the Fed's and key companies," says Walter Joelson, projection isn't good. enough. With mid- the chief economist at General Electric Co. term congressional elections approaching 'For many, many people, it will feel like a and other pressures mounting, the admin- recession." The auto and home-building in- istration needs more than a soft landing. It dustries have already been hard hit. needs a perfect landing Mary Rider, whose Oldsmobile dealer- "You're going to see increasing tension ship just outside Richmond, Va., began lig- between the administration and the Fed- uidation proceedings: July 12, says as far eral Reserve," says William Niskanen, the Please Turn to Page A4, Column 1 president of the CATO Institute in Wash- ington. "This will jeopardize Bush's whole budget strategy." Already, the tensions are evident. In public comments, White House officials have studiously avoided criticizing the Fed. Aware of the political sensitivities in- volved, Fed Vice Chairman Manuel John- son and other administration allies have told the White House that public pressure only: makes It harder to get the Fed's inde- pendent-minded regional-bank presidents to go along. with the president's wishes. Photocopy-Preservation Business Day D1 6/29/89 The New York Times Time Inc. Comparing Health Care Systems Meeting U.S. EXAMPLES OF DIFFERING 10% INVESTMENTS IN TECHNOLOGY Is Allowed Population Population Units Per Unitt Units Per Unitt Canada Cardiac Catherization Labs 31 816 1.500 166 Stock Falls $6; Diagnosis and treatment of cardiovascular disease Paramount Rises HEALTHSPENDING 4 6,325 228 1,096 Lithotripters ASA PERCENTAGE Pulverize kidney stones In Active Trading OF G.N.P. and gallstones 12 2,108 -1,375 182 Magnetic Resonance Imagers By STEPHEN LABATON Diagnosing a wide range of diseases Special to The New York Times '73 '75 '77 '79 '81 '83 '85 WILMINGTON, Del. June 28 A Delaware chancellor today declined Estimate In thousands Source: Canadian Health and Welfare Ministry, U.S. Health Care Financing Administration to block the annual stockholders meeting of Time Inc., which is sched- uled for Friday. The ruling came in response to a Debating Canadian Health 'Model' suit by three major stockholders, who contended that Time's directors had not adequately kept them and other shareholders informed of their rea- lags behind that in the United States, soning in rejecting takeover offers The result can be longer waits for from Paramount Communications By MILT FREUDENHEIM certain kinds of care. Inc. and moving instead to buy War- "They really believe in equity and ner Communications Inc. Special to The New York Times equal access and are willing to go Chancellor William T. Allen made TORONTO - Executives at the without some things that we take for clear during the hourlong hearing Ford Motor Company are dismayed granted, said Senator David F. that he did not think his ruling had that the auto maker is spending the Durenberger, Republican of Minneso- any bearing on how he might address equivalent of $311 a vehicle for health ta; and vice chairman of a Senate the larger issues in the takeover bat- care for its American employees, House commission on comprehensive tle while in Canada, a half-hour drive health care, after a visit here recent- He has scheduled a hearing for July from Ford's headquarters in Michi- ly. The kind of rationing they have is 11 on Paramount's suit, which asserts gan, the cost is $49.80. the same kind we should have. Rather that Time has engaged in illegal de- Striking differences like this are than pay the price in dollars, they pay fensive tactics by refusing to negoti- leading a growing number of Amer- the price in waiting time." ate with Paramount and offering in- ican employers, economists and Administrative costs are also lower stead to buy Warner. legislators to examine Canada's tax- in Canada, where overhead and payer-financed system of national Ruling Treated as Indicator paperwork absorbs about 3 percent of health care. They are looking for solu- the health budgets. In the United Nónetheless, investors treated to tions not only to the problem of rising States, where most health care is day's ruling as an indicator that the health costs but also to the lack of in- paid for by Federal, state and private Time-Warner deal might proceed surance for 37 million Americans. insurers, the 1,500 private insurers unimpeded. But the new scrutiny has produced have overhead costs of close to 12 Time would take on considerable sharp debate. While some employers percent, covering items like market- debt to buy Warner for $14 billion. who pay for care are inclined to see ing, reserves for future claims, taxes Time's shares fell $6, to $157.25 today the bright side of the Canadian sys- and profits, Federal data show. The on the New York Stock Exchange. It tem, many doctors and hospital ad- Federal Medicare and Medicaid pro- was the ninth-most-active issue, with ministrators are skeptical. grams have overhead costs of about 1.35 million shares traded. Canapress/John Smee for The New York Times Warner rose on the Big Board 'Deficiencies and Problems' 3.5 percent. W. Vickery Stoughton, president $1.625, to $60.75, with 1.27 million Indeed, the American Medical As- But a committee report at the sociation decided at its semiannual of Toronto General Hospital, with shares traded. A.M.A. meeting denounced Canada's Paramount, which would have a meeting last week to "document and the hospital's computerized scan- system as "socialized medicine man- great deal of cash on hand if it did not publish the truth about the deficien- ner. Canada's provinces limit hos- aged by an ever-enlarging and more buy Time, rose $3.375, to $62.875. It cies and problems that characterize Canadian health care." pitals' purchases of expensive expensive bureaucracy, financed by was the Big Board's most-active ever-increasing taxation and featur- stock, with 2.7 million shares traded. By some measures at least, Cana- equipment. ing rationing, shortages, health-care Some people on Wall Street said dians are healthier than Americans. waiting lists and an absence of pri- rumors were swirling that a bidder They live longer, on average, and vate-sector alternatives." product, while in the United States, might emerge for Paramount. Sev- their infant mortality rate is 25 per- spending on health has spurted to 11.3 Spokesmen for Canadian medical eral arbitragers noted that Dan Dorf- cent lower, according to the Em- associations register similar objec- percent of the G.N.P. man, a financial writer with USA To- ployee Benefit Research Institute, a tions. Both critics and proponents of day, had said on television on Tues- nonprofit research center in Wash- Canadians say they like their sys- Canada's system say its costs are day night that a bid for Paramount ington. What is more, all Canadians tem, however. In recent polls by lower because doctor and hospital was likely soon. Mr. Dorfman had are guaranteed care, at no charge. Yet Canada has held health spend- fees are tightly controlled and the correctly predicted both of Para- purchase of advanced technology Continued on Page DE ing to 9 percent of its gross national Photocopy-Preservation A34 FRIDAY, MAY 26. 1989 THE WASHINGTON POST Bush Seeks Ways to Assert Leadership PRESIDENT BUSH'S TRIP TO EUROPE Today: Departs Andrews Air Force Base for Rome. rity adviser Robert M. Gates, have Saturday: Meets with Italian government leaders, Pope John Paul II. PRESIDENT, From A1 urged Bush to take a cautious ap- Sunday: Departs Rome for Brussels. Meets with Belgian Prime Minister restless and impatient with the pro- proach, sources said. They have Wilfried Martens. (cess. Although he has not been spe- concluded that Gorbachev's domes- Monday: NATO summit. cific, Bush has told advisers that he tic reforms are already failing, and Tuesday: Summit concludes. Press conference. Departs Brussels for needs new and "creative" ideas for warned that the Soviet leader's sur- Bonn and meeting with West German Chancellor Helmut Kohl. dealing with the extraordinary vival is not assured. events unfolding in the Soviet Cheney created a stir when he Wednesday: Final meeting with Kohl. Travels to Mainz for speech on NATO alliance. Riverboat trip down Rhine. Departs Frankfurt for Union, the sources said. Bush's im- suggested this publicly in a recent television interview that accurately London. patience appeared to boil over this reflected the view of some Bush Thursday: Meeting with Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, luncheon week when, in an unusual and spon- advisers. Gates has warned against with Queen Elizabeth II. taneous action, he personally re- the historical cycles of Soviet re- Friday: Departs London for Pease Air Force Base, N.H. Weekend in wrote two major foreign policy form and retreat. Paul Wolfowitz, Kennebunkport, Maine. speeches at the last minute. undersecretary of defense for pol- "He's saying, 'Where's the icy, told Congress recently that beef?' one foreign policy aide said. To Pease AFB "virtually all" Gorbachev's political Another senior official added, "His JAMES A. BAKER III and economic reforms "could be impatience is with the substance- urges expanding Soviet contacts reversed" and that Soviet foreign it's not public relations. He's say- policy "continues to challenge U.S. BRITAIN ing, 'I want to be able to shape the interests around the world." changes.' There is a risk of action, Bush seems to have embraced all but some people only focus on the the differing views; he has been London risks of action and not the risks of both positive and cautious. In his Bonn inaction." address at Texas A&M University, Brussels Now, the sources said, Bush is he spoke of "our sincere desire" to (BELG.) Frankfurt turning to a new, relatively small see Gorbachev's reforms succeed, W.GER. group to formulate these ideas with but he warned that "the Soviet Secretary of State James A. Baker Union has promised a more coop: spearheading the effort on for- erative relationship before, only to ITALY eign policy and Defense Secretary reverse course and return to mil- Richard B. Cheney on military is- itarism." This dual message has run sues. through the recent speeches, even Rome A group of their subordinates is as he personally redrafted them, already at work redrafting most of trying to inject a more positive Bush's speeches for the Europe tone. trip, officials said. In February, Bush invited a From Andrews AFB The policy review did produce an group of specialists on the Soviet overall goal for Bush's approach to RICHARD B. CHENEY Union to his family compound in Moscow, which he has described as said to favor cautious approach Kennebunkport, Maine, and in re- WASHINGTON POST "integration of the Soviet Union cent interviews several took note of into the community of nations" and to Gorbachev's initiatives Lament- Bush's cautious approach. going "beyond containment," the ed one high-ranking official of the "The policy I'm hearing about brought to office, and so Bush may battle.3 The other was that he isn't like the man I met," said Ed- be more constrained than his pre- wanted "creative new initiatives" post-World War II policy of seeking time-consuming reports, "They just ward A. Hewett III of the Brookings to isolate and check Moscow. How- decessor. The president who called that would help the U.S., manage grew like Topsy." Institution. "The man I met had a: ever, with the exception of several Meanwhile; Bush's top advisers the Soviet Union an Evil Empire and cope with the sweeping mili- minor proposals, such as resurrect- have expressed markedly differing little more vision and was less and who had long established his tary, political and economic changes views on how to respond to Gorba- frightened of the Soviets than the credentials in this regard could per- that Gorbachev has set in motion. ing President Dwight D. Eisenhow- chev. Baker has been a leading ad- policy that's come out," which he haps swing more widely in the other The sources, including five sen- er's "Open Skies" concept or pro- viding economic incentives to Po- vocate of expanding contacts with described as "pablum." He added, "I direction than Bush can," he said. ior-level advisers who were inter- land, Bush has been unable to say Moscow on a wide range of issues, think the president is better than "What we are likely to get from viewed on condition of anonymity, from arms control to drugs and ter- his policy. He's going to have to get Bush for the next four years is a quoted Bush as reminding them precisely how he intends to reach rorism. One official described Bak- a hold of his bureaucracy and do more balanced and cautious policy. that one of the most important tests this goal. er's approach as building many what Gorbachev has done Adam B. Ulam, professor of his- of his presidency will be how he "If we find a way, if I can think of bridges to the Soviets that will help You're going to have to take risks." tory at Harvard, said Gorbachev's responds to the historic shifts now a good proposal that'll move the lock in or "institutionalize" Gorba- Robert L: Pfaltzgraff Jr.; of the domestic reforms may be irrevers- taking place in the communist bloc. world towards a more lasting peace, But for a number of reasons, the chev's reforms: Fletcher School of Law and Diplo- ible, but his foreign policy remains we'll be out front with that," Bush Baker, in a speech May 4, said, macy, praised Bush's initial caution.. in flux and Bush should try more early months of the Bush presiden- said in an interview this week with "There are some who say that we "I would argue that the motivations aggressively to influence it. "There cy did not produce options for deal- four Western European journalists. don't need to do much of anything of Soviet policy are such that it õp-: is a great sort of uncertainty about ing with the Soviet Union that Bush But so far, Bush has displayed an because trends are so favorable to erates independent of our blandish- what to do," he noted. "It's a com- found satisfactory, the sources said. abundance of caution toward the us. Their counsel is to sit tight and ments or even threats," he said. "So pletely new ball game and we still "You're asking people who have fast-paced events in the Soviet await Soviet concessions. I don't it is not inappropriate to allow Gor- haven't discovered any way to deal been in the bureaucracy for 20 Union. At first, he and national se- happen to be of this school. I don't bachev to make changes that he with the ball game." years to come up with new ideas- curity adviser Brent Scowcroft think we can be passive in the face must from his own self-interest Bush initially gave his advisers and they can't," said the foreign commissioned the lengthy strategic of these great strategic changes make." two- basic instructions for his ap- policy aide. "You're asking a pres- reviews. During the four months Pfaltzgraff said Bush lacks the proach to Moscow. One was that he ident who basically succeeded him- they were under way, Bush refused But other advisers, such as credentials as a hard-liner that for- did not feel the need to compete self to come up with new ideas-he to comment on his policy or respond Cheney and deputy national secu- mer president Ronald Reagan with Gorbachev in a public relations won't." Photocopy-Preservation William Raspberry The Mail on Black Males Sometimes I feel like those door to my notion that we should train young "I have a family," she says. "How can door proselytizers. You know, the ones men to become family providers is back- one bring back that which is here? Be who have glimpsed Truth and who are ward. As one reader put it, "It is the accurate. What you intend to say is, 'Put a convinced that if you will only listen to expectation of males as providers and black man in the residence of every black them and think about what they are. women as partners who have the option woman and her children.' saying, you too will see the light. of being providers that is causing men- 'Are you out of your mind? Any bear- It was my notion that it would be plain especially black men-so much trouble." able black man who is outside a family is to everyone, once it was pointed out, that The second theme is that it is up to so by his own choice. Women who, in (1) much of what has gone wrong in young men to save themselves. They can order to be physically safe and mentally America stems from the deterioration of stop being lazy or lawless or irresponsible secure, have removed themselves and the family and (2) that one reason for the whenever they choose. their families from the proximity of abu- deterioration-particularly. in the low-in- Well, if it's sexist to urge special help sive, destructive males will passionately come black community-is that black for the boys (who are demonstrably in resist the efforts of anyone to impose this boys learn tragically early to view them- special trouble), then the Biblical parable unwanted element on their families and selves as expendable. of the lost sheep amounts to reverse into their lives. My proposal: Let's find ways to save discrimination. The point is not to aban- "The theory that improving the em- the boys. don the 99, but to restore the entire ployment rate of men is the sine qua non There's no need to prove that boys are flock. of a healthy community is a simplistic and in special trouble. The merest glance at a What of the notion that a man's proper totally erroneous response to a complex college, high school or even grade school role is that of provider? Maybe, as the societal puzzle. It ignores the reality that classroom will make clear that the boys reader suggests, it is mere socialization. I black men in alarming numbers are physi- are disappearing. A review of the crime, suspect it runs a lot deeper than that, cal and psychological batterers and abus- imprisonment and homicide statistics will making it hard for any man who has ers of women. make clear where they are disappearing never functioned as a provider to feel like to. The more they wind up in jails or a man. The inability of so many young "Daily, black women attempt to avoid, graveyards, the less they will be available black men to see themselves as provid- even flee, situations in which they are ers-or even as necessary to their fami- demeaned, belittled and stripped of their to form families. Fatherless households lies-may be one explanation for their dignity and humanity. In truth, if the black already constitute the poorest category of irresponsible behavior. American community is to survive, black Americans. But though many readers share my Nor does it make sense to me to women and girls must learn trades and view that we need to find ways to rescue expect that boys who have never experi- skills which will enable them to become the boys from their uselessness, a sur- enced responsible fatherhood can, on healthy, independent, self-respecting, prisingly large minority take a different their own, become responsible fathers. competent individuals. view. The third, and saddest, theme is typi- "What should be done to cause/enable Three themes run through their let- fied by a letter from a woman who black men to become intelligent, respon- ters. The first is a double-pronged femi- describes herself as "a black single female sible, supportive, desirable family mem- nism: it is sexist to talk about saving boys head of household. She challenges my bers? rather than saving children. Moreover, "bring back the family" notion at its heart. "I don't know, and really don't care." Photocopy-Preservation THE WALL STREET JOURNAL TUESDAY, JUNE 6, 1989 Red Storm Rising in the Ukraine By ROMAN SOLCHANYK The "Rukh," as It is commonly known, Is Ukrainian Helsinki Union. The final resolu- pected to heed Mr. Gorbachev's call, made Ever since Mikhall Gorbachev assumed independent of the party and claims mass tion adopted, moreover, included several to the writers in Klev, to be patient and to leadership of the Soviet Communist Party, support. The moving force behind the points that, in the words of the Ukrainian promote "the unity of the Slavic people, observers of the Soviet scene. have. been Rukh is the Ukrainian intelligentsia, espe- party daily. Radyanska Ukraina, went be above all the Russians, Ukrainians, and predicting the demise of Vladimir Shcher- cially the writers who have consistently yond the bounds of the direction and objec- Belorussians." If there is discord among bitsky. Mr. Shcherbitsky is the Communist been the most visible and vocal advocates tives of the conference. The meaning the Slavic people, Mr. Gorbachev argued, Party leader in the Ukraine. He Is also the of radical change. On the eve of the Gorba- here is the meeting's support for the It will be very difficult to talk about unity last remaining full member of the Polit- chev visit the Rukh organizers published Ukrainian popular front and the demand to among all the peoples of the Soviet Un- buro, apart from Mr. Gorbachev himself, their draft program in the writers' union legalize the underground Ukrainian Catho- ion." to be Installed by the now discredited Leo- weekly, Literaturha Ukraina. The estab- lic Church and the banned Ukrainian Auto- This is the core of the national question aid Brezhnev. lishment responded immediately with a cephalous Orthodox church. Both national in the Soviet Union today. The operative Conventional wisdom has held that Mr. campaign in the party press In-the form of churches are viewed by authorities as principle of Soviet nationalities policy has Sheherbitsky. an unreconstructed "Brezh- Irate letters from the public, accusing the seedbeds of Ukralnian nationalism been to shift the focus of the Sovlet Union's nevite," would be swept away with other Rukh of fomenting "civil war" and aiming The latest Indication of a sharpening of more than 100 nations and nationalities political leftovers. The. Ukraine has seen from an ethnic-cultural to a political-ideo- events In recent years that might seem to Faced with nationalist demands almost everywhere, logical allegiance. From this came the no- damage Mr. Shcherbitsky. Yet in spite of tion that there exists a "Soviet people." such calamities as Chernobyl, the growing the Kremlin scarcely needs political mobilization m its The nucleus of this allegedly supranational rift between the party and Ukrainian intel- largest and most economically vital non-Russian republic. entity has been the Slavic bloc of Russians, lectuals, and the popular dissatisfaction so Ukrainians, and Belorussians who together. strikingly reflected in the poor showing of account for more than 70% of the popula- regime candidates in recent elections, Mr. at an "Independent Ukraine," A recent is- tensions came last month at the plenum of tion: To tamper with this construct would Gorbachev has not shown interest in re- sue of the literary weekly reports that Mr. the Ukrainian Central Committee. This quite likely spell the end of the Soviet moving his Ukrainian subordinate. Gorbachev, when meeting with Ukrainian group, Radio Moscow reported, "has urged multi-ethnic society as we know it. writers in Klev, even asked for assurances National Ferment the party locals to resolutely rebuff nation- What the Sovlet Leaders Know that the Rukh was not Intent on forming a alists and extremists and consistently im- Four years is a long time to hold one's new political party. prove inter-ethnic relations.' On the face The main problem is not the conflict be- breath, and the varlous convoluted expla- tween Armenians and Azerbaljanis or be- The reaction to the formation of another of it, these two requirements-appear.con nations for the Shcherbitsky phenomenon tradictory: In the Ukraine today, the "na- tween Georgians and the Abkhaz, although will no longer do. The answer must be mass organization, the Shevchenko Ukrai- niant Language Society, was also some- tionalist" and "extremist" labels are liber- in both cases the anti-Russian sentiment sought in the national ferment that. has ally applied to anyone who devlates from that has developed as a byproduct of Mos- been steadily growing In the Ukraine, and thing less than positive. The group held its inaugural meeting in early February, end- the Shcherbitsky line. cow's incompetent handling of these re- in its implications for the future of the So- Ing with a demand that the Ukrainian lan- Clearly Messrs. Gorbachev and Shcher gional disputes can be potentially danger- Photocopy-Preservation viet multi-ethnic polity. Mr. Gorbachev bitsky are not interested in a specifically ous, The Baltic states, where anti-Russian himself posed the problem succinctly dur- guage be given state or official status. In Ukrainian perestroika. In fact, the notion and anti-Soviet sentiment is at the heart of ing his Ukraine visit: "You can only Imag- the course of the two-day proceedings, ine what would happen if there were disor- party representatives found themselves lis- of perestroika on an ethnic basis is anath- the Issue, could become a serious problem, tening to speeches by former political pris- ema to the Kremlin. This was stated by particularly If the three republics work out der In the Ukraine. Fifty-one million peo- oners, loud applause for the Ukrainian pop- Moscow's representative to a conference a viable common platform, which they ple live here. The whole fabric of the So-- ular front, and calls for Mr. Shcherbitsky's on nationality relations convened in April- have now begun. Yet the Ukrainian capital viet Union would be amiss and perestrolka in the Western Ukrainian city of Ternopil: of Kiev has almost double the population of would fall." resignation In the end the local party ide- ology secretary abandoned the hall. It "In our interconnected society, there can Estonia, and the Lvov region alone is more Presumably the leader of the Soviet Un- comes as no major surprise that thus far be no separate Uzbek or Georgian, Ukrai- populous than Latvia. ion knows what he is talking about and should be taken at his word. Faced with the society has not been registered by au- nian or Russian perestroika-there can be The real problem is in the Ukraine, thorities. no purely national perestroika, as some without which the Soviet Union would nationalist demands almost everywhere, would have it. Perestroika is international; cease being a major power. This is some- the Kremlin scarcely needs political mobi- The following month a third grass-roots although, naturally, it should also consider thing that every Russian leader, from Le- lization in its largest and most economi- organization held its founding congress in the national factor." nin to Mr. Gorbachev, has understood bet- cally vital non-Russian republic, the Kiev. The Ukrainian Memorial Society is How the "national factor" is to be rec- ter than most Kremlinologists. Ukraine. This is precisely where develop- dedicated to the full exposure of Stalinist onciled with perestrolka may become ments In the Ukraine have been leading. crimes against the Ukrainian nation. Once clearer after the Soviet party holds its long The clearest Indication of this is the re- Mr. Solchanyk, director of program re- again respected writers shared the awaited Central Committee plenum on na- cent emergence of the Baltic-type Popular speakers' platform with former dissidents search and development at Radio Liberty tionality relations. Until the meeting takes in Munich, co-wrole "Ukraine Under Gor- Movement of Ukraine for Restructuring. and representatives of the oppositionist place this summer, Ukrainians will be ex- bachev," to be published by Macmillan. THE WASHINGTON POST FRIDAY, AUGUST 11, 1989 A25 Charles Krauthammer The U.N.'s Complicity With Evil One fact largely forgotten in the current hos- tage crisis is that Lt. Col. William Higgins, though an American officer, was on a United Nations mission and in U.N. uniform when kidnapped by Lebanese Shiites. One has come to expect little of the United Nations, but its cravenness in the Higgins affair surprises even the cynical. No emer- gency Security Council meetings. No condemna- tions. No denunciations. No pressure on Hezbol- lah's Iranian sponsors or Syrian protectors. Instead, the United Nations sends Marrack Goulding to Lebanon to "fact-find" and to pick up Higgins' body. He gets neither facts nor the body. He meets with Hezbollah leaders-Hezbollah, re- member, kidnapped and murdered Higgins, who, remember, was on a U.N. mission-and issues not a critical word about them. Instead he criticizes Israel for having captured another Hezbollah lead- er, Sheik Obeid, who was involved in kidnapping Higgins and reportedly used his own apartment to imprison Higgins. Crisis, which strips things down to its elements, is a deeply revealing condition. This crisis demon- strated (to those who still require a demonstration) that the United Nations has progressed far beyond impotence to a state of meek and sick complicity with evil. The crisis did not bring out the best in George Bush either. "Ready on Day One to be a Great BY BILL RUSSELL-INX President," said the campaign ads last year. Then, on Day One of its first real crisis, the Bush administration was panicked. Bush instinctively and unwisely went into the Jimmy Carter Rose Well, discriminate retribution is exactly what terrorists; but adds that if Israel wants to do so he Garden mode: canceling a trip, returning to Wash- Israel engaged in with its capture of Obeid. In will not stand in the way. ington, calling emergency meetings that one knew November 1988, Bush declared that this kind of If you want your hostages back, you have to in advance would have no issue. In short, handing action is America's ideal: "We will bring terrorists bargain. But how? First make clear and public the the entire American agenda over to terrorists. to justice. We will continue to cooperate with limits of your demands. In this case, the U.S. friendly nations to identify, track, apprehend, pros- demand should be the return of all American (and, Then there was the infamous statement in which Bush called for the release of all hostages in ecute and punish terrorists." Nine months and one if we are feeling particularly magnanimous toward the Middle East-a remark pointedly aimed at election later, he calls such action "kidnapping and our "allies," all Western) hostages. No more one- Israel and pointedly classifying Sheik Obeid as a violence." by-one, as in the Iran-contra affair. Shiite/Iranian hostage, as if Israel had picked a Lebanese school- counter-demands will be entertained. The address Bush, to his credit, and in character, righted girl off the street rather than a kidnapper and a himself after his initial unsteadiness. He backed off is the White House. Any mailman will do. terrorist. the Israel-bashing and let the terrorists know that Then, put pressure on the terrorists. Set a time Whenever an outrage such as the murder of a limit. We know that what Sheik Obeid fears most is if they harmed their next hostage he was prepared Navy diver on a TWA jet is committed against extradition to the United States. We should an- to unleash American military power. The threat to Americans, the question of retaliation arises. The nounce that if the hostage issue is not resolved hostage Joseph Cicippio was lifted and the immedi- argument against retaliation, which almost invari- within, say, two weeks, we will begin extradition ate crisis passed. Now upon some reflection it ably prevails, is that a nation as great as ours does proceedings to bring him to American justice for becomes clear that Israel's capture of Obeid has not mete out group justice. Instead we will track kidnapping and accessory to murder of Col. Hig- provided an opening on the hostage issue that had down, apprehend and try the particular individuals gins. This is a less Draconian measure than threat- been closed since the Iran-contra scandal broke. responsible. ening an air war against Shiite Lebanon, but it does What to do? The administration, clearly fighting Call this policy discriminate retribution. Gener- tell the terrorists that time is not on their side. ally speaking, it is less a policy than an evasion. It the Iran-contra memories, has said that it will not If Hezbollah will trade for Obeid, fine. We will gets you off the hook because it is extremely hard bargain with terrorists. This is an entirely disin- defer justice for the sake of eight Americans. to identify who actually carried out a certain genuous position. Iran hints at releasing hostages Otherwise, we try him. The threat would have the outrage, harder to find them and harder still to in return for Iranian assets held in the United salutary effect of concentrating the mind of his capture them. (On occasion it can be done; witness States, and the administration "rejects" the de- colleagues on releasing American hostages. The the capture of the Achille Lauro hijackers and the mand but does aver that it would look favorably on execution of the threat would make them think kidnapping by American agents of airline hijacker the asset issue if hostages are released. The twice before picking Americans as their target Fawaz Yunis.) secretary of state says that he will not bargain with next time. Photocopy-Preservation seltine ii. John R. Block Free Trade: Coming Up Roses TRADE 7/5/89 To most people, roses evoke images of blos- Holland and Israel) were threatening the domestic percent increase. During this period, U.S. rose Recent expansions in the domestic production imports by the European Community had "signifi- soming romance. But in Washington, roses have industry. industry revenues accelerated by 12 percent, of Granny Smith apples and kiwi fruit are the cantly impeded the inflow of roses em non-EC recently come to represent not just romantic Sales of roses in the United States are not reaching an estimated $171 million in 1988. healthy response to new agricultural product mar- member countries," including the United States. symbols, but a strong lesson about economic inconsequential. Overall rose sales are expected to Foreign producers have experienced even kets that were initially developed by foreign U.S. growers' export potential is therefore 'imit- realities. It's a story not of the blush of first love, top 830 million stems in 1989. U.S. producers' stronger growth. According to the ITC analysis, importers. U.S. production in these two emerging ed-particularly during the peak production but the benefits of free trade. market share has fallen in recent years, however, longer growing seasons and efficient distribution domestic industries is expected to be between $47 months of summer. The ITC also found that The international trade debate is filled with from 73 percent in 1985 to 62 percent in 1988. (not government support) enabled these producers million and $80 million in 1989. More generally, Japan's nontariff barriers, such as lengthy quaran- enough conflicting theories to numb the minds of Six months ago, conventional wisdom was ready to meet growing U.S. consumer demand, which the year-round availability of popular fresh fruits, tine inspection procedures, result in extensive most policy makers as well as most consumers. to blame the loss of domestic market share on the increased a remarkable 190 million stems (30 such as cantaloupe and pineapple-only possible damage to imported products and therefore re- The terms "free trade," "fair trade," "national usual culprit: foreign, government-subsidized im- percent) from 1985 to 1988: Foreign producers through winter importing-have helped boost do- duce the overall attractiveness to exporting fresh- treatment," "managed trade," "reciprocity" and ports. The uproar in Washington was strong were thus able to respond to substantial new U.S. mestic demand by re-shaping the shopping and cut flowers to Japan. "protectionism" are frequently presented with enough to mandate'a full-scale investigation of the demand for roses that domestic producers would eating habits of many Americans. For consumers both in and outside the United much enthusiasm, but without much explanation. U.S. rose market by the International Trade have been unable to meet because of a lack of land These types of economic success stories are States, an end to unproductive agricultural trade Commission. and labor. It is sometimes necessary to focus on the trade of possible only in an environment that encourages policies would offer the promise of lower prices at a single product to sort through these conflicting The ITC released its 113-page report in April. The ITC results are clear. Both domestic and free and fair trade for agricultural goods. Ameri- the grocery checkout line in years ahead. The theories and to reaffirm the benefits to the con- The principal finding? That both domestic pro- foreign rose producers profited from growing ca's willingness to take down barriers to agricul- lesson of the rose market-where the tide of sumer and the nation of free trade. duction and imports of fresh cut roses have risen domestic U.S. demand. The increase in supply also tural trade-to welcome the challenge of compe- rising imports has helped buoy U.S. producers-is in recent years because of rapid growth in con- allowed new vendors to enter the market for the tition-is clearly paying off. New domestic A recently issued report by the International important to keep in mind. sumer demand. The reason is simple: aggressive first time. Most important, the clear winner was product markets are being created, many of which Trade Commission on the "Competitive Conditions The resolution of trade disputes will no doubt sale efforts by rose importers have helped open up the U.S. consumer, who found ample supplies of offer U.S. farmers and agricultural producers in the U.S. and World Markets for Fresh Cut be a critical topic at the upcoming Paris economic new markets for roses that never before existed. roses available year-round at competitive prices. needed diversification opportunities. At the same Roses" offers some perspective. The study was summit. At the meeting, President Bush, West Both domestic and foreign rose producers have The economics of roses provides a rather time, U.S. consumers are seeing widening choice mandated by Congress as part of last year's trade German Chancellor Kohl and other industrial na- benefited from these developments, which have dramatic example of the substantial benefits of at their local market. ill. It arose from concerns expressed by congres- tion leaders will discuss the pros and cons of tariffs made roses available to consumers in supermar- open agricultural trade in the new global economy. Unfortunately, antiquated tariff structures ional supporters of the domestic rose industry kets and other convenient outlets for the first and other barriers to agricultural trade. One hopes But roses are not the first products in which abroad continue, in some cases, to limit U.S. there will be a few roses on the table as well. located mainly in California, Michigan and Colo- time. foreign imports have helped stimulate the growth export opportunities. In regard to roses, for exam- ado) that increased imports of these flowers U.S. rose production, for example, has jumped of domestic agricultural markets, and in turn, ple, the International Trade Commission study The writer is president of the National- mainly from Colombia, but also from Mexico from 476 million stems to 522 million stems, a 10 benefited U.S. producers. found that high tariffs placed on summer rose American Wholesale Grocers' Association. Photocopy-Preservation THE WASHINGTON POST WEDNESDAY, JULY 26, 1989 C7 PopularMusic Records Well-Tuned Country Songstress From Mary Chapin Carpenter, a Lyrical 'State of the Heart' By Mike Joyce In addition to the first-rate songs, "State of the Special to The Washington Post Heart" is graced by some fine instrumental work, not just from guitarist John Jennings, Carpen- It's a natural: Mary Chapin Carpenter opening ter's longtime collaborator and coproducer, but for Emmylou Harris at Wolf Trap tonight. And -------- by guests Mike Auldridge and Tommy Hannum not merely because both honed their talents MAN and an excellent band. Moreover, Carpenter has while playing clubs in and around the Washington seldom sounded more confident as a singer or area. After all, if it weren't for Harris's major more comfortable with her material. Her slightly label success a generation ago, it's likely that husky alto brings a soulful, occasionally sassy Carpenter and numerous other female singers with a'similar flair for combining folk and country edge to some songs, and a rare intimacy to others. music would be performing for much smaller audiences these days. Cee Cee Chapman: 'Twist of Fate' Mary Chapin Carpenter: 'State of the Heart' By contrast, subtlety is not one of Cee Cee Chapman's strengths. She's part honky-tonk an- For Carpenter, at least, the timing of the gel, part torch singer, and on her new album, concert couldn't be better. She has just scored "Twist of Fate" (Curb-MCA), the Portsmouth- her first bona fide country hit single, a breezy, flirtatious tale called "How Do." With its rocka- born singer's got the goods to prove it. Chapman delivers love songs, or, more precisely, love- billy rhythms, western swing colors and carefree spirit, it's a sharp contrast to some of the gone-bad songs, with a vengeance that's almost reflective ballads also contained on Carpenter's palpable. "Frontier Justice" is a typically blunt Photocopy-Preservation new album, "State of the Heart" (Columbia). But response to a love betrayed; "You Lie" and "Love Is a Liar" are as bitter and as anguished as they it's not likely to be the only hit generated by the album. The hook-laden chorus and brassy tone sound; and "Gone but Not Forgotten" stirs up that distinguish "Never Had It So Good" and the even more painful memories. earthy, Judds-like rhythm that propels "Read My True, "Rainbow Rider" and other tunes soften Lips" may well allow these songs to follow "How the mood here and there, but this is basically a Do" right up the charts. one-note album. The good news is that Chapman In fact, now that "How Do" has attracted sings that note with unbridled and unforgiving considerable airplay around the country, perhaps passion at times. The bad news is that the album even some of Carpenter's introspective lyrics occasionally suffers from slick, anonymous Nash- will "get some well-deserved exposure. Un- ville arrangements that do neither the singer nor abashed sentiment clearly has its place on the the songs justice. album, especially on the ballad "This Shirt." But Laurie Lewis: 'Love Chooses You' track is the most likely to make Lewis better for the most part Carpenter's lyrics. convey known in Nashville, since it was recently covered genuine warmth and emotion without tugging at Like Carpenter's album, San Francisco Bay the heartstrings. Area singer, songwriter and fiddler Laurie Lew- by Kathy Mattea. And yet Lewis's own arrange- is's new release "Love Chooses You" (Flying ment, singously laced with Douglas's dobro, "Slow Country Dance" is a beautifully drawn Fish) is mostly devoted to the pleasures and pain possesses a simple, heartfelt charm all its own, portrait of aging and loneliness. "Something of a as -does "The Light" and "The Point of No, Dreamer" combines a lilting melody with a story engendered by affairs of the heart, By and large, about'a foolish, incurable romantic, while "Good- the songs don't rival the caliber of Carpenter's, Return." bye Again" quietly explores a love triangle and and given some of the bluegrassy arrangements If other tunes, notably "When the Night Bird its impact on the "other woman." The only song they're not likely to enjoy anywhere near the Sings," seem tailored to appeal to a broader on the album not composed by Carpenter is commercial exposure. But they're sturdy, well- audience than your typical string band recording, "Quittin' Time," which is given an upbeat ar- crafted songs just the same, and all of them take Lewis isn't bashful about revealing her tradi- rangement here. But as Carpenter proved when advantage of a remarkable array of talent: Man- tional influences from time to time. On the she sang a slower version of it with Shawn Colvin dolinist Sam Bush, dobroist Jerry Douglas, gui- contrary, she fiddles up a storm on "Ryestraw," at the Birchmere recently, the poignant lyric is tarist Russ Barenburg and Nashville Bluegrass and joins her band in creating a haunting cham- perfectly in keeping with many of her own Band members Alan O'Bryant, Pat Enright and berlike setting for the melancholy air "The Wom- ballads. Mark Hembree are all on hand. The album's title en of Ireland." 5/75/89 Bush Stance on Soviets Gives Him Political Trouble at Home, Abroad By GERALD F. SEIB overwhelming desire from all outside staff Reporter of THE STREET JOURNAL critics for more action." WASHINGTON- Bush's slow- In any event, there is little reason to and-careful course in dealing with Soviet think Mr. Bush is about to sharply alter his leader Mikhail Gorbachev is leading the course. He is an inherently cautious man president toward some heavy political tur- who has succeeded In life mostly by taking bulence. carefully considered steps rather than Mr. Bush leaves tomorrow for his risky gambits. maiden presidential voyage to Europe and For Instance, when he was beaten badly a high-profile sum- in the Iowa caucuses last year and his po- mlt meeting of the litical future hung in the balance, many North Atlantic wanted him. to jettison some of his cam- TreatyOrganization paign staff and break. more cleanly from His immediate task President Reagan. Instead, Mr. Bush will be to paper over called his top advisers together for a low- a messy spat with key pep talk, pulled even closer to Presi- West Germany, dent Reagan-and proceeded to win the which wants him to' crucial New Hampshire primary. launch into quick ne- Today, Mr. Bush's closest White House gotiations with the advisers are unusually knowledgeable in Sovlets to cut short- Soviet affairs also notably cautious. range nuclear National security adviser Brent Scowcroft weapons In Western is a longtime Soviet scholar who is*on*a Europe. President Bush first-name basis with many top Soviets, The president's and his deputy Robert Gates is a Sovietolo- broader task is even more difficult. He gist from the intelligence community with must mollify increasingly restive Western broad knowledge of Soviet history and lan- European allies, who want him to be guage. But their experiences with the So- bolder and quicker In responding to Mr. viets also have left Mr. Bush and these Gorbachev's proposals for arms cuts and aides inherently skeptical. other broad changes in East-West rela- They argue that in the current climate tions. of ferment and uncertainty in the Soviet As he prepared to depart, Mr. Bush. bloc, the West can't know whether Mr. tried yesterday to reassure allies that he Gorbachev will succeed. Therefore, they intends to "seize every-and I mean ev- say, the U.S. can't risk making security ery-opportunity" to build a better rela- concessions In the mere hope he will. tionship with the Soviets. In a commence- More broadly, the Bush team has con- ment speech at the U.S. Coast Guard Acad- cluded that the demands for openness and emy, Mr. Bush welcomed a new Soviet democratic reforms coursing through the proposal to cut conventional forces In Eu- Soviet Union and China indicate that his- rope and sald that "through negotiations, toric trends are moving in the direction we can now transform the military land- of the U.S. Administration aldes believe scape of Europe." His aldes acknowledged that a flurry of concessions from Washing- that he chose his words in an effort to ton isn't necessary to keep the powerful avoid appearing "too negative" toward the trend moving ahead. Soviets. "We live in a time where we are wit- Pressure Building nessing the end of an idea, the final chap- As the White House realizes, restiveness ter of the Communist experiment," Mr. about Mr. Bush's cautious approach hasn't Bush said yesterday. "Communism is now been limited to Western Europe. Similar recognized even within the Communist pressure for more action is building on the world Itself as a failed system, one that political left and right in the U.S. promised economic prosperity but failed to Influential Democrats in Congress are deliver the goods." beginning to grumble that Mr. Bush Is los- The trans-Atlantic debate over the wis- Ing the Immediate public-relations battle dom of this Bush approach is being played with the Soviets. Worse, they say, he Is out largely In the argument with West Ger- running the risk of squandering a historic many over whether to negotiate cuts In opportunity to ease Cold War tensions. short-range nuclear weapons-an argu- "I think Bush is not articulating where ment that still threatens to badly mar the most Americans are with respect to re- NATO summit in Brussels next Monday sponding to the Gorbachev initiatives," and Tuesday. says Rep. Lee Hamilton. (D., Ind.), a se- Short-range nuclear forces include mis- nlor member of the Foreign Affairs Com- siles and artillery shells that weren't elimi- mittee. "He's behind the curye, I. guess I nated by the 1987 intermediate-range arms would put it." treaty. The U.S. has, on its own, cut its More surprisingly, conservatives, who stockpile of such weapons by 2,400 during are generally pleased that Mr. Bush has the past decade, down to roughly 4,000. But shown skepticism and resolve toward the NATO long has steered clear of negotia- Soviets, also are beginning to press for a tons over the arms, because they are more aggressive U.S. strategy. They don't needed to offset the Warsaw Pact's big su- want Mr. Bush to react to Mr. Gorbachey periority in conventional weapons. by offering concessions, of course. Rather, Several weeks ago, though, the West they call for more moves to ratchet up German government caved in to domestic pressure on the Kremlin to make more political pressure and insisted that the U.S. fundamental changes in its system. quickly open negotiations with the Soviets Common Feeling to cut those arms. The Bush administra- 'Our view is that he should be seizing tion balked. Meanwhile, Mr. Gorbachev the initiative to help transform the Soviet tried to grab the initiative by making a Union, by making the kind of aid, trade showy but militarily insignificant an- and technology they are obviously eager to nouncement that he was removing 500 of get contingent on fundamental change," the Warsaw Pact's 10,000 short-range says Frank Gaffney, a former Pentagon of: weapons and by pressing for talks. ficial who currently is a conservative ana- Now the Bush administration has lyst at the Center for Security Policy. Mr. agreed to consider talks, but It insists that Gaffney says-that, despite their different cuts first be made in Soviet conventional prescriptions for action, there Is a "com- arms and that the West declare that short- mon feeling" among liberals and conserva- range arms wouldn't be eliminated en- tives that "the U.S. isn't served by a pas- tirely. Though the revised U.S. position is sive strategy." considered wise by most analysts, West Those who applaud Mr. Bush cautious Germany Is balking at the conditions. approach say such a course is simply des- Even If Mr. Bush finds the diplomatic tined to attract criticism. Mr. Bush has skills to paper over the dispute on this trip, shown that he's "prudent and knowledgea- It's unlikely he'll be- able to resolve the ble, and he isn't stampeded by the right or broader problem of getting the West to un- the left,' says William Hyland, editor of Ite behind a defense strategy In the face of Foreign-Affairs magazine and a Soviet an- the crafty Mr. Gorbachev. "What we re alyst who has occasionally advised Mr. facing Is a much longer-range problem," Bush. But, Mr. Hyland adds, "he's going to says Rep. Les Aspin (D., Wis.), chairman be criticized for it, because there's an of the House Armed Services Committee. Photocopy-Preservation