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Originally Processed With FOIA(s): FOIA Number: S FOIA MARKER This is not a textual record. This is used as an administrative marker by the George Bush Presidential Library Staff. Record Group/Collection: George H.W. Bush Presidential Records Collection/Office of Origin: Speechwriting, White House Office of Series: Snow, Tony, Files Subseries: Subject File, 1988-1993 OA/ID Number: 13900 Folder ID Number: 13900-008 Folder Title: [U.S. News and World Report, 2/25/91] Stack: Row: Section: Shelf: Position: G 18 29 3 1 DESERT STORM U.S.News PLANS FOR AN FEBRUARY 25, 1991 $2.50 ALLIED BLITZKRIEG SADDAM'S DESPERATE HOURS FACING A CRUSHING MILITARY DEFEAT, IRAQ'S DICTATOR HOPES A POLITICAL OFFENSIVE 08 WILL SAVE HIS SKIN 02239 0 140066 3 EDDIE. YOU'VE COME BACK. IT'S A DREAM WE'LL NEVER DANCE ALONE he Prudential Insurance Company of America IN THE REAL WORLD, IF YOU DON'T TAKE THE RIGHT STEPS FOR YOUR FUTURE, YOU MIGHT NOT GET ANYWHERE. In what promises to be a turbulent decade ahead, a lot of people are going to need the knowledge, experience and financial services The Prudential provides, to help make their dreams come true. In the real world, for example, one of the most important decisions you'll have to make is choosing an insurance policy. AGAIN.' At The Prudential, we realize how confusing insurance terminology can be. That's why our agents are trained to answer as many questions as you may have, as often as you like, in simple terms you can understand. If you're seeking the right investments for the future, talk to our people at Prudential-Bache Securities. We believe that even in difficult times, there's still money to be made. Through keen insight and thoughtful analysis, we'll offer you investment alternatives that can help bring you closer to the finan- ThePrudential cial security you're looking for. Insurance And when it comes to buying or selling your home, you can get expert help from The Prudential The Prudential Real Estate Affiliates. Real Estate With our nationwide network of profession- Affiliates als specially qualified to Prudential's standards and our innovative computer Prudential Bache system, we can do everything possible Securities to address your real estate needs. So, if you're looking for the right steps to choreograph your future, just make your move to the companies of The Prudential and build your future on The Rock.® ThePrudential BUILD YOUR FUTURE ON THE ROCK.SM Test your knowledge of the environment 1 The Clean Air Act 2 Renewable fuels- 3. The United States pro- Amendments of 1990 duces about a quarter 4 Most of the oil we use using the power of is imported. How require great reduc- water, wind, sun and of the world's natural much natural gas do tions in the pollutants emit- biomass-provide an oppor- gas. At current rates of con- we import? ted in creating electricity tunity to create electricity sumption, at competitive over the next few years. The with lower pollution. Today, prices, how long will it take A) 50% most economical way to cut the contribution of "renew- us to use up known B) 35% power plant pollution ables" to electric generating reserves? quickly is to use: C) 7% capacity is: A) 25 years D) None A) Coal A) 1% B) 40 years B) Oil B) 3% C) 50 years C) Natural gas C) 10% D) 200 years D) Uranium D) 25% E) All of the above pollution by changing the mix. ral gas/cogeneration, in which reports by the Colorado School of Not only are many utilities natural gas generates electricity, Mines and the U.S. Department of switching to low-sulphur coal, and waste heat is used for indus- Energy, total known domestic they are exploring many other trial purposes. natural gas reserves, recoverable technologies, including "cofiring" at competitive prices, would last with natural gas. Adding even a 2. more than 50 years at current small amount of natural gas to annual production levels. But new the fuel mix toward the end of supply discoveries and new tech- the "burn cycle" in coal-fired elec- Answer: C. According to the Edi- nologies for recovering natural tric power plants, for example, son Electric Institute, hydro- gas, which become competitive as creates much more complete, effi- electric power alone contributes the price of oil rises, give us rea- cient combustion, and less pollut- 9.5% of the electric utility gener- sonable supplies, at home, for at ing emissions of nitrogen oxides, ating capacity; solar and biomass least the next 200 years. sulphur dioxide and particulates. combined provide .4% adding the The cost is low: about 1% to 2% of two together, we get almost 10%. original plant costs, much (Solar energy is currently more cheaper than other pollution economically feasible in direct reduction technologies. One can uses. Such as heating homes and 4. 1. also produce electricity directly in businesses, than in generating natural gas-driven turbines, a electricity.) Coal provides 55.6%; Answer: C. Consistently, more very clean technology. Because natural gas 9.5%, oil 5.7% and than 90 percent of our natural Answer: E. It's not always eco- natural gas is the cleanest-burn- nuclear power 19%. gas comes from U.S. sources. Last nomically feasible to switch ing fossil fuel, it can help improve year, it was 93 percent. Virtually immediately from coal or oil to the quality of air and water, low-polluting fuels. So we'll be 3. all the rest comes from Canada. whenever it substitutes for coal or In an era of great concerns over using a mix of fuels, including oil. It can even "substitute" for energy security, greater use of coal and oil, for the near future. uranium. A major nuclear power Answer: C. But D has some truth natural gas is one important But there are many ways to cut plant has been converted to natu- in it, too. According to separate answer. There are no simple answers but there are smart choices. Watch for the American Gas Association "Discovery Now: Green Alerts" on The Discovery Channel Everyone agrees we'll soon be needing more electricity. But there's little agreement on how to get it. Especially with the environment at stake. Hydropower is limited by geography. Nuclear energy's problems continue to be debated. And the sun, the wind, the tides - they're all attractive, but none is economically practical on a broad scale yet. So, for at least the near future, we're going to have to rely, for the most part, on fossil fuels. But all fossil fuels are not created equal. One is clearly best for the environment. And that's natural gas. Natural gas produces less carbon dioxide emissions, it produces no sulfur dioxide, and it creates no particulates - the visible smoke you see. All of these are serious air pol- lutants. Further, because new high-efficiency, gas- powered generating plants are relatively simple to build, gas is also one of the quickest and cheapest ways for producers of electricity to increase their output. è In short, if natural gas didn't exist, we'd have to invent it. As it is, nature has given us vast resources of natural gas right here in North America. It just seems natural to use them. © 1991 American Gas Association HIGH UAD OUTP 4 UT DOHC 16V OIL FILL CHECK SEE 16-Valve Performance Is Only One Of Its Strong Suits. I Grand Am Sport Coupe. With 180 hp, the 2.3L Quad 4® High Output-powered Grand Am® SE has the motivation to match its looks. There's also a level of refinement under the skin that makes harnessing its formidable performance potential seem almost effortless. 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ALL RIGHTS RESERVED SEE YOUR DEALER FOR TERMS OF THE LIMITED WARRANTY CNN CHRISTOPHER MORRIS DOD POOL U.S.News FEBRUARY 25, 1991 VOL. 110 NO. 7 6 Letters to the Editor OUTLOOK 10 God, man and war 12 Bad cops German price tag Sears catalog Drug town 20 John Leo on quotas 21 Washington Whispers THE GULF WAR COVER STORY 22 Saddam Hussein's desperate 22 38 hours 29 The Soviet gambit Casualties of conflict. Civilian victims of a Preparing the ground. U.S. marines 30 After the gulf war: Potholes U.S. raid on a Baghdad bunker brought Saddam inspect an abandoned Iraqi tank and wonder on the road to peace 32 Behind Israel's restraint Hussein a momentary propaganda victory. when a land war against Iraq will begin. 34 King Hussein on a tightrope MARC ROSENTHAL FOR USN&WR 38 Preparing an allied blitzkrieg 44 Worldgram: Multiracial rule in South Africa; bracing for AMERICA a Yugoslav breakup SPECIAL REPORT ED 45 Medal of Honor: Part IV BUSINESS 49 Big-bank marriages 52 Henry Kaufman on how to ONE make banks safer 49 53 The economic cost of Getting hitched. Bank marriages may be the reforming South Africa 57 Economic Outlook: John only way to save crumbling financial institutions. Rutledge on higher interest JEFFREY MacMILLAN USN&WR rates SCIENCE & SOCIETY 58 Environmentally sound architecture 61 Preventing child abuse 62 Profile of James Webb 63 Tom Callahan on Jerry Tarkanian NEWS YOU CAN USE 64 Investing: Is the bull back? 69 The war: A helping hand 70 Tax tips: For job hunters 64 71 The Newsletter: Travel advice; auto rebates; new oral What's going on with the market? The 58 vaccine for typhoid fever Dow went up more than 400 points in the 72 Editorial: The public Out of ashes. William McDonough's Warsaw past month. Bears on Wall Street are hard to outsmarts TV skyscraper will recycle rubble from World War II. find. But does the rally amount to, well, bull? ROB KEMP FOR USN&WR COVER: Photo by Elfers-Army Times/DOD Pool Inset photo by Bill Gentile - DOD Pool Copyright © 1991, by U.S.News & World Report, Inc. All rights reserved. S.News & World Report (ISSN 0041-5537) is published weekly, except for one combined issue mailed in August and a second combined issue mailed in December, $39.75 per year, by U.S. .News & World Report, Inc., 2400 N Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20037-1196. Second Class postage paid at Washington, D.C., and at additional mailing offices. POSTMASTERS: Send address changes to U.S.News & World Report, P.O. Box 55929, Boulder, CO 80322-5929. U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT© WORLD REPORT™ NEWS YOU CAN USE© WORLDGRAM© WASHINGTON WHISPERS® TOMORROW© Canadian Post International Publications Mail (Canadian Distribution) Sales Agreement No. 545643, Canadian Goods and Service Tax No. R124481334 Printed in the U.S.A. EDITORIAL AND CORPORATE OFFICES ADVERTISING OFFICES SUBSCRIPTION DEPARTMENT 2400 N Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20037-1196, 202-955-2000 599 Lexington Avenue, Suite 1200, New York, NY 10022-6004, 212-326-5300 Post Office Box 55929, Boulder, CO 80322-5929 To order U.S. News, to change an address, or for subscription questions, write to the Subscription Department, P.O. Box 55929, Boulder, CO 80322-5929 N U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991 5 Crunchy oats LETTERS in every DAVID TURNLEY DETROIT FREE PRESS/BLACK STAR FOR USN&WR of war have far departed from the root of their faith. No war, especially this one, is moral or just. George Bush and bite. his supporters are living in the Dark Ages. Killing only breeds hatred and more killing, not peace. There had to be another way to remove Saddam Hus- sein from power than all this death and destruction. Christian ministers who condone military action in the Persian Gulf ought to be ashamed. James Alexander Forceful leader. Schwarzkopf at the helm Peoria, Ariz. A leader willing to gas his own peo- The Bear at war: Thank you for profiling ple, bomb civilian targets and poison Gen. H. Norman Schwarzkopf ["The the ocean for his own megalomania is Bear," February 11]. He is, obviously, unlikely to respond positively to eco- the best thing to come out of the Viet- nomic sanctions alone. Christian or, in- nam War. It is a tragedy in American deed, any ethics must take into account military history that so few leaders have the reality of evil. In dealing with the had Schwarzkopfs combination of in- likes of Saddam Hussein, history teach- telligence, experience and heart. I am es us that talking peace is not the same grateful that he is leading our troops as making peace. Clerics who would and that our president and the chair- guide others in this time of conflict owe man of the Joint Chiefs of Staff have their constituents and the Kuwaiti peo- the understanding to allow him to do ple evidence that they have truly count- NATURE VALLEY.) what he does so well-love his troops ed the cost of pacifism as well as war, and our country. lest their ethical pronouncements seem Donna Lovett more politically expedient than pro- Oats'n Honey © 1990 General Mills, Inc. Alexandria, Va. phetically just. Rev. William J. Keane I am 81 and have yet to read a more Storrs, Conn. inspiring article than the one on Gener- al Schwarzkopf. To know that our chil- A few miles south of the city of Dhah- dren have such leadership is beyond be- ran in Saudi Arabia, a crescent-shaped lief. What an immortal guy "the Bear" peninsula hooks into the Persian Gulf. is, and what incisive and detailed treat- The bay thus formed is called Half ment by your Joe Galloway! Moon Bay and has great natural beauty. Carlton Gladder The sand is as fine and white as salt. The Spokane, Wash. warm water is blue green, clear and teeming with life: colorful fish, turtles, How sad that your article on "The crabs. During my family's eight years in Bear" not only referred to a well-known Saudi Arabia, we spent many happy days poem by a reputable poet, A. E. Hous- on the bay. How very sad it is now to see man, as a bit of verse "by an unknown it threatened. The giant oil slick that author" but then proceeded to mis- reaches south into the Persian Gulf is quote it, making nonsense of a poignant the evil shadow of one man: Saddam comment on youth and age. The last Hussein. A political leader who willfully two lines of the poem read: "Life, to be destroys the environment is a danger to sure, is nothing much to lose; But young every living thing. No settlement which men think it is, and we were young." leaves him in power could be termed a Hilary Andrade-Thompson success. Any weapon necessary to re- Hopkinton, Mass. move him is justified. Don Johnson We regret the error. - The Editors Hot Springs Village, Ark. Concerning the article "Holy War Nowhere does the insanity of war Doctrines" [February 11]: Jesus said to come through more graphically than Nothing satisfies like the delicious taste "love your enemies," not kill them! when one listens to some of the questions That doesn't mean love their actions, reporters ask at the military briefings. of honey and crunchy oats in Nature but Christian theologians and evangeli- James L. Moltz Valley Oats 'n Honey Granola Bars. cals who debate the morality and justice Oil City, Pa. 6 U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991 Death's void: The conversation with Philip Roth ["Facing a Father's Death," U.S.News Crispy rice February 11] expressed so completely Founder: David Lawrence 1888-1973 my own hard-to-express feelings. My Chairman and Editor-in-Chief Mortimer B. Zuckerman beloved father died within weeks of his Co-Editors in every 92nd birthday, with his family all near Merrill McLoughlin Michael Ruby him. Nevertheless, it has been unex- Executive Editor Deputy Editors Peter W. Bernstein Christopher Ma, Cliff Hopkinson pectedly difficult to accept the void it Editor at Large David Gergen Editor, Special Projects Mel Elfin has left. We said goodbye, but I agree Director of Editorial Administration Kathryn A. Bushkin bite. completely with Mr. Roth that "the ab- Art Director Rob Covey Photography Director Mark Godfrey sence is now greater than the pres- Assistant Managing Editors Outlook, Brian Duffy; U.S. News, Harrison Rainie; World Report, John ence." The actuality of death has been Walcott; Business, William Meyers; Science & Society, Wray Herbert; acknowledged, but the life of the de- News You Can Use, Avery Comarow; Special Reports, Betsy Streisand Gloria Borger, Jack Egan, Lewis Lord, Mary Lord, Gerson Yalowitz ceased grows more vital with the pass- Senior Writers Michael Barone, Stephen Budiansky, Susan Dentzer, Joseph L. Galloway, ing of time. Thank you for the solace of Thomas Moore, Gerald Parshall, Steven V. Roberts, Lynn Rosellini Chief of Correspondents Carey W. English this one page of human love amidst all Director of Research Elizabeth Mueller Gross the pages of warfare and tribulation. Director of Operations Karen S. Chevalier Senior Editors: William F. Allman, Donald Baer, Robert F. Black, Beth Brophy, Sarah C. Gallup Jerry Buckley, William J. Cook, Charles Fenyvesi, Andrea Gabor, Ted Gest, Erica E. Goode, Miriam Horn, Monroe W. Karmin, Anne McGrath, Robert J. Latham, N.Y. Morse, Susan Morse, Carla Anne Robbins, Alvin P. Sanoff, Michael Satchell, Kenneth Sheets, Jeffery L. Sheler, Pamela Sherrid, Joanne Silberner, Douglas Stanglin, James Wallace, Kenneth T. Walsh, David Whitman, Leonard Wiener, Clemens P. Work. Rights and responsibilities: John Leo's Associate Editors: Bruce B. Auster, Edward C. Baig, Amy Bernstein, Don L. Boroughs, Shannon Brownlee, Betsy Carpenter, Peter Cary, Steven Findlay, analysis of the communitarian trend Stephen J. Hedges, Art Levine, Louise Lief, Francesca Lunzer Kritz, Lisa J. Moore, Doug Podolsky, Eva Pomice, James Popkin, Marjory Roberts, Amy ["Community and Personal Duty," Janu- Saltzman, Joseph P. Shapiro, Marc Silver, Anne Kates Smith, Vic Sussman, Terri Thompson, Jeannye Thornton, Thomas Toch, Jo Ann Tooley, Daniel P. ary 28] documents a well-deserved back- Wiener, Gordon Witkin. Domestic Correspondents: New York, Scott Minerbrook; Atlanta, Matthew Coop- lash against the irresponsible growth of er; Chicago, Paul Glastris; Los Angeles, Mike Tharp. Foreign Correspondents: London, Robin Knight, European Senior Editor; Middle "rights talk" in America. Well deserved, East, Richard Z. Chesnoff, Senior Correspondent; Paris, David Lawday; Moscow, Jeff Trimble; Tokyo, Jim Impoco; Beijing, Susan V. Lawrence; Latin America, but surely not well directed. The real Linda Robinson (Miami). Special Correspondents: Britain, Leslie Mandel-Viney; Israel, David Makovsky; source of the rights imbalance is a failure Egypt, Gordon R. Robison; South Africa, Jim Jones; Hong Kong, Eric Ransdell; Thailand, Nick Cumming-Bruce; Brazil, Geri Smith; El Salvador, Tom Gibb; Cana- to limit rights to those envisioned by da, Bernard Simon; Germany, John Marks; Czechoslovakia, Peter S. Green. Thomas Jefferson. These were essential- Contributing Editors: Fouad Ajami, Timothy Garton Ash, Tom Callahan, Harold Evans, James Fallows, Hirsh Goodman, Josef Joffe, John Keegan, John Leo, ly negative rights, things no government Emily MacFarquhar, Richard Perle, Henry Trewhitt, Ben J. Wattenberg. Reporter-Researchers: Ann E. Andrews, Johanna V. Boublik (graphics), Sarah or person could do to another. Burke, Gary Cohen, Warren Cohen, Julie Corwin, Dorian Friedman, Sharon F. Golden, Dana Hawkins, Constance Johnson, Susan Lindauer, Nancy Linnon, Negative rights have been trampled of Margaret Mannix, Muadi Mukenge, Douglas Pasternak, Elizabeth Pezzullo, Joannie M. Schrof, Ted Slafsky. late by a newer breed of rights, advocat- NEWS DESK Chief: David E. Pollard. Deputy Chief: Robert O. Grover. Senior News Editors: ed by the American Civil Liberties Edwin Albaugh, AI Ryan. News Editors: Elizabeth B. Brooke, Kenneth Campbell, Susan Burlant Vavrick. Research: Kathleen Phillips, Chief: Richard Manhard, Union and others, by which a person is Richard J. Newman. Proof Desk: Judith A. Shapleigh, Chief: Jim Sweeney. OPERATIONS now said to have a legal claim to control Technology Manager: Janie S. Price. Production Manager: Diane B. Snow. Makeup Editor: Harriet Westfall. Systems Administrator: Leslee Bliss Kukie. the property, contracts and associations Composition Specialists: Tim Byers, Donald B. Gatling, Patti McCracken, Cyn- thia A. Phelps. Special Projects Manager: Priscilla Totten. News Assistants: of his or her fellows. But a simple call for Myke Freeman, Chief; Howard R. Sewell, Jr. ART STAFF the assertion of more collective interests Senior Art Director: Wayne N. Fitzpatrick. Graphics Director: Jeff Glick. Senior Designer: Joan Strong. Section Designers: Socorro Q. González, Susan K. will, paradoxically, only undermine the Langholz, Sarah Shaw, Gary Visgaitis. Designers: Richard Gage, Kristine L. Mehuron, David S. Merrill, Rebecca Pajak, Matt Zang. Art Production Coordina- sense of community. Enduring commu- tor: Sherri Roberts Lumpkin. Production Assistant: Leslie A. García. Graphics © 1990 General Mills, Inc. Lab: Tony Brown. Administrative Coordinator: Patricia J. Lute. nity values are those arrived at freely PHOTO STAFF NATURE VALLEY® Bran Granola Bars Associate Director: Cotton R. Coulson. Senior Editors: Richard Folkers, Cheryl A. and voluntarily by individuals. The sad Magazine. Editors: Marilyn Davids, Alice Gabriner (New York), Katherine Kay- Mouat (Paris), Carol McKay, Dolores Morrison, Andrew Popper. Assistant truth of history is that the enforcement Editors: Shawn D'Sullivan (New York), Suzanne Révy, Jeanne M. Rhodes, Maria A. Voles. Photographers: Chick Harrity, Chief; Eddie Adams, Charlie Archam- of community, as opposed to individual, bault, Torin Boyd, Linda L. Creighton, Darryl Heikes, Kevin Horan, Jeffrey MacMillan. Photo Lab: Bill Auth, Chief: Beth A. Haggerty, Charles Moroney, values by fiat destroys communities. Charlene M. Spicer. Administration: Ann Roberts, Manager; Dave Murphy. Photo Library: Robin J. Cook. Freedom of contract, association and LIBRARY Director: Kathleen L. Trimble. Assistant Director: Kate Forsyth. New York Man- property is essential to keep our other ager: Jamie B. Russell. Reference: Anne Bradley, Kathleen Flynn, Carol Hook, Penny E. Pendergrass, Brent Short. Newspapers: Judith A. Katzung, Lee Nev- constitutional freedoms in balance. ille, Bill Guiton, Guo Ping, Hilary Lord, Toni Ritucci. Index: Nancy Langford, Nancy Bloomer. Technical Services: Rose M. Atkinson, Lynn Christopher, Peg- Curtis L. Garner gy Everheart, Benita Myers, Yvette Reyes. NEWS SERVICES Salt Lake City Editorial Business Manager: Susan C. Riker. Manager, Administration: Cathy Roberts Sweeney. Administrative Editors: Mary Jean Hopkins, Lynne Edwards, Angela B. Taylor, Cornelia Carter, Dianna A. Pierce. Administrative Assistant: Connie L. Zara. News Bureau Coordinators: Katherine T. Beddingfield, John J. It's good to learn that a number of Bresnahan, Jr., Greg Ferguson. Interviews Administrator: Ronald Wilson. Read- er Service: Susan J. LeClair, Manager; Nick Merlino, Michael S. Ransom, groups are now endeavoring to balance Yvonne Samuels, Gil Weinreich. individual-rights ideology by focusing President and Chief Executive Officer Fred Drasner on responsibilities and the importance Executive Vice President, William Harris New! of the community as a whole. Individual Senior Vice President Finance, Alice Rogoff Senior Vice President Marketing, Jake Winebaum rights, pushed to the limit, can lead only Vice President-Administration, David L. Helsel Vice President Manufacturing, William E. Nussbaum to the fragmentation of society. Vice President Treasurer, Joseph G. NeCastro Vice President -Circulation, Hilleary C. Hoskinson Lydia C. Giglio Vice President Retail Marketing, Michael P. Presto Manufacturing Planning Director, Michael J. Armstrong New York, N.Y. Ad Make-up Director, Sharon R. Sullivan Senior Vice President Publisher, Richard C. Thompson Vice President Ad Sales Director, Thomas R. Evans Vice President Sales, Mark MacDonald Career change: In your article "Wooed by Vice President Sales, Patrick K. Hagerty Vice President Sales, William M.C. Miller the Classroom" [February 4], you inter- Assoc. Director- Sales, Dudley F. Wing Try new Nature Valley Rice Bran Granola Assoc. Director Sales, K. C. Forward view several high-school teachers who Associate Marketing Director, Deborah B. Farnham Associate Marketing Director, Charles J. Barrett Bars. You'll love the tempting taste of left the corporate world to enter the Research Director, Taylor Gray General Counsel, Gail A. Lione Assoc. General Counsel, Marjorie L. Esterow cinnamon graham in this crispy rice snack. U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991 7 LINDA L. CREIGHTON USN&WR LETTERS ticket wholesalers, in part because of the logistics and inability to control issuance teaching profession through one of the of the ticket, but most importantly be- many "fast track" certification programs cause each year some of them "go west" now available at universities. For the with $5 million to $10 million in undeliv- most part, they bemoan student atti- ered tickets. If you are going to suggest tudes, apathy and lack of cooperation. It this course to your readers, tell them to makes me wonder: Do any of these hasti- pay with a credit card to obtain some ly prepared teachers look at their own protection. In the case of hidden-city teaching styles and strategies as possible fares, there are now few agents crazy causes of student problems? Or do they enough to play with them. The majority do what is easier blame the kids? Per- of the domestic airlines have rewritten haps one year is too short a time to learn tariffs to make the travel agent responsi- all they need to become successful. It ble if the passenger deplanes in Pitts- takes more than "knowing your stuff." It burgh rather than in Hartford. Six also involves knowing how to share it so months later, the agent receives a bill for that students will listen. the fare difference and must pay it or James R. Delisle lose the right to issue tickets on that Associate Professor, Gifted Education airline. You also do not mention that Kent State University Into the classroom. Gerald Stancil quit this method works only on a one-way trip Kent, Ohio a career as a chemist to teach physics. because of a practice called "down-line cancellation." When you "no show" for Thank you for mentioning what is the Pittsburgh-to-Hartford flight, return wrong with the U.S. education system. of kids who have no intention of learn- reservations are canceled. As David Greer said, "Nothing prepares ing." Amassing years in front of the Edward Vitello you for how it feels to try to handle a blackboard does not change the hope- Faneuil Hall Travel Associates Inc. classroom of kids who have no intention less, helpless, frustrated feeling. It will be Georgetown, Mass. of learning." Anti-intellectualism is the interesting to see how many "career heart of the problem. To really change switchers" remain in elementary or sec- Assuming that regular air fares are and improve education in this country, ondary education for even half a decade. based on the cost of providing air trans- corporate career switchers, educators, Frances L. Vogel portation, who is going to pay this cost parents and, most of all, children have to Northport, Ala. if everybody uses Tom Parsons's cute deal with eliminating this attitude. tricks for flying cheaply? Jennifer C. Goodman Cheap tricks: Only a "shop till you drop" Earl Snader New York, N.Y. type is going to go through the convolut- Waynesboro, Pa. ed itinerary required to obtain that $292 Your article is filled with the reasons I fare between New York and San Diego Address letters for publication to Letters Editor, switched out - low pay, few good job op- cited in your story "Flying on the U.S.News & World Report, 2400 N Street, N.W., portunities and few pats on the back. It is Cheap" [February 4]. In addition, there Washington, D.C. 20037-1196. Send letters by fax really true that "nothing prepares you for are a number of hidden traps involved. to (202) 955-2685. Include full name, address and how it feels to try to handle a classroom Many travel agents will not deal with daytime phone number. Letters may be edited. ANDREW CROSSTALK His April 23 cover story "Death at Sea," investigating Behind the bylines the explosion aboard the USS Iowa, was recognized by the Armed Forces Journal Interna- ur correspondents in the nonstop since the August 2 in- tional as one of the best pieces gulf may not have seen vasion of Kuwait, is no strang- of defense reporting in 1990. 1,001 Arabian nights, but their er to the Middle East. He cov- Readers on the home front combined experience cover- ered the Arab-Israeli war of are not alone in benefiting ing events in faraway places 1967 and has made many re- from our coverage. U.S. News far exceeds that total. porting visits to the area in re- In the gulf. Robbins at work has been sending shipments of For Senior Writer Joe Gal- cent years. the magazine to Saudi Arabia loway, reporting on war is an Senior Editor Carla Anne on Mexico won an Overseas via the Air Force ever since all-too-familiar job. He spent Robbins established the mag- Press Club award. Her hus- U.S. troops were dispatched two years as a correspondent azine's "bureau" in Saudi band, who works for The in August. We have been ship- in Vietnam and covered other Arabia and has spent nearly Washington Post, is also cover- ping up to 5,000 issues a conflicts and rebellions in four months there. A veteran ing the war. week - about 130,000 issues SO Asia, including the India-Pa- of Latin American coverage, Our team also includes two far, and we will continue to do kistan War in 1971. she has reported on drug wars men with military experience. SO as long as U.S. troops re- Senior Correspondent in Colombia, Peru and Bolivia Mike Tharp served in Viet- main on duty. Richard Chesnoff, who has and civil wars in El Salvador nam with the Army, and Peter been in the region almost and Nicaragua. Her reporting Cary is a former Navy officer. 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You can feel it in the © 1991 The Gillette Company [USA] Gillette The Best a Man Can Get TM OUTLOOK ONE WEEK God and man in times of war W henever man is most ungodlike, he beseeches the fight for peace." Soon, Bush set aside a national day of pray- Lord for a little divine affirmation. Shortly before er and declared the American-led coalition was "overwhelm- Moses died, he told his Hebrew followers: "God ingly on the side of God." And now, even as Radio Baghdad will go with you to fight your enemy for you and give you the airs peace proposals, Hussein and his advisers insist Iraq has victory." Ever since, prophets and presidents have designat- "triumphed because it upheld the spiritual principles and ed the Deity as their principal ally when sending soldiers off values emanating from its true religion." to maim and slay others. In the gulf war, the charge to the al- When politicians call the Lord as their witness, the first tar started within hours of the first bombing raid. As tele- temptation is to scoff. What king, after all, ever vowed to con- casts showed Saddam Hussein unctuously bowing on a pray- sign men to their deaths for an ignoble cause? It's no coinci- er mat, George Bush intently listened to the Rev. Billy dence that all sides in the gulf controversy, from Saudi King Graham tell a prayer service at Fort Myer, Va.: "We must Fahd to antiwar protesters in the United States, share the con- 10 U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991 ABBAS MAGNUM viction that God is their corner man. Inevitably, such sudden On the Lord's team. Saudi soldiers turn toward Mecca to pray shows of zeal have the whiff of a foxhole conversion. Hussein, during a break from their wartime duties in the desert. who gassed his own countrymen and pillaged a near-defense- less neighbor, is far from a model Muslim. And George Bush has scrupulously avoided parading his "born again" Episcopa- side a Baghdad bunker - all amidst golden sunsets and palms lianism - until now. When Chinese autocrats slaughtered the that sweetly rustle. Yet no one can be immune to the silent agi- innocents of Tiananmen Square, Bush felt no divine obligation tation that something humbling and horrible is transpiring. to stop them or even to rescind China's favored trade status. In previous eras, that trepidation and attendant search for Still, behind the recent religious sallies lies a more genuine, meaning were vented in daily church services. Now, when if plaintive, spiritual stirring. Just like the prospect of a hang- months and years seem clogged with the pursuit of condos, ing, war - to paraphrase Samuel Johnson - concentrates a cars and college tuitions, the presumption that life is a spiritual man's mind wonderfully. It transforms the world into a kind of quest has faded. War, ironically, revived that ageless calling, madhouse where soldiers and civilians alike must rediscover sending near-record numbers of Americans to pray at syna- the purpose of their lives. Surreal TV newscasts now amplify gogues and churches. Yet after the last mortar is fired, piety this madhouse effect, showing just about everything except and compassion will likely play only bit parts in the New World battlefield carnage. Cormorants struggle to flap oil-tarred Order. If truth is the first casualty of war, the last may be man's wings and bloodied civilians lie motionless on stretchers out- sputtering attempt to sanctify his world. BY DAVID WHITMAN U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991 11 CALENDAR U.S. NEWS Trivial pursuits Whatever the news COPS IN TROUBLE of the gulf war may be, it's time for fun and games-board games, that In his entry in Who's Who in America, William Hart boasts that integrity helped is. More than 100 new ones slated him land the job of Detroit's top cop in 1976. Now the chief is facing a federal for introduction to the marketplace indictment accusing him and his former deputy of embezzling $2.6 million from a this year are on display at the toy police fund set up to buy drugs and pay informants. Hart, LENNOX McLENDON AP industry's annual trade show in New who denies guilt, is one of the most prominent law officers York City through February 20. Toy caught up in a parade of charges that cops have suc- sales were generally flat last year, cumbed to lawbreaking, especially in drug investigations. but board games- which traditional- Two ex-Miami officers are now on trial for allegedly ly fare well during recessionary stealing narcotics from dealers; two others admitted guilt times- made a strong showing. last month. Six Los Angeles County sheriff's deputies were While children's games led the in- found guilty in December of pocketing traffickers' profits dustry, nearly 20 percent of the that they had seized during raids. And last week, a grand country's $1.2 billion board-game jury charged that two officers had helped in a drug-sales sales were to adults. Few manufac- network in New Jersey. Several scandal-plagued depart- Busted. Chief Hart turers are pitching toys connected ments are shoring up internal controls to prevent repeat with the war, but two new war episodes, but experts worry that police executives harried by public pressure to cut games A Line in the Sand, and street crime are paying too little heed to reforms. Arabian Nightmare: Desert Storm - are due to be on sale by late Febru- CHILDREN OF MILITARY PARENTS ary. On March 7, at the Game Man- ufacturers Association's annual There is a rising chorus of concern about the children from 17,500 families who trade show in Las Vegas, executives have seen one or both parents who usually provide their principal care sent to the from leading game companies will gulf war. That concern has led members of Congress and others to urge Defense give advice to would-be inventors on Secretary Dick Cheney to reconsider current policy. As it now stands, single parents designing new games. or couples with children are not exempt from being shipped to combat zones. Legislation has been introduced in Congress to change that, exempting at least one parent from being assigned away from children. "We shouldn't be pushing mothers to leave small children," says T. Berry Brazelton, Boston pediatrician and author of "Infants and Mothers." For now, though, the Defense Department claims it would be a serious mistake to yank military fathers and mothers out of the war zone. DATABASE A NEW HIGHWAY PLAN Top-selling children's board game in Thirty-five years and $129 billion after the federal government set up its interstate 1990: Monopoly Jr.; family game: Mo- highway system, the Bush administration has sent Congress a transportation plan nopoly; adult: Scattergories that will dramatically change the nation's roadways. The five-year, $105 billion plan Households in the United States boosts highway funding 39 percent but shifts a greater cost burden to state and local with a Monopoly set: 95%; sets sold governments. In return, local governments will get more latitude over how best to since 1935: 120 million meet their highway needs. And perhaps the most far-reaching change is the creation of a new National Highway System that will include current interstates and 100,000 Game buyers who are female: 84% miles of other existing road that, together, will receive the bulk of federal funds. Languages that Dungeons & Drag- Critics include governors wor- EVERETT JOHNSON FOLIO ons has been translated into: 13; ried about their own budgetary players worldwide: 9 million woes and mass transit advocates Of 80 word and strategy games re- who claim the plan shortchanges viewed, top mind games judged by alternative transportation. But, Mensa (organization for people with by shifting emphasis from new high IQs): Taboo, TriBond, Abalone, construction to repairs, the plan Scattergories, Trivial Pursuit will likely provide more help for Americans who play chess at least crumbling roads and bridges. once a year: 10% Although the debate over de- Board games relating to war on the tails will be intense, Congress market last year: 200 will probably pass the plan be- fore late September, when the BY Jo ANN TOOLEY current program expires. Pathbreaking. Working on an interstate highway 12 USN&WR: DATABASE SOURCES NPD RESEARCH GROUP; AMERICAN MENSA LTD.; U.S. CHESS FEDERATION; U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991 GAME MANUFACTURERS ASSOCIATION; COMPANY REPORTS: ILLUSTRATION: RICHARD GAGE USN&WR WORLD Just THE FATE OF CHINESE DEMOCRACY The prospects for a renewal of China's democracy movement are slim, especially Published now that the last of 42 activists tried in connection with the Tiananmen uprising have been sentenced to prison. In time for the Lunar New Year, the Communist MICHEL PORRO AFP government has sentenced Chen Ziming U.S.News and Wang Juntao to 13 years in prison STYLEBOOK for allegedly masterminding the 1989 EDITORS protests. The punishment for the two intellectuals, who used their indepen- dent think tank to promote political re- form, was the harshest meted out to any of the Tiananmen leaders. The Chinese government has tried to take advantage of the worldwide focus on the Persian Gulf to end its dissident woes quietly. Indeed, lighter sentences Stylebook for Hong Kong. Petition for Chinese reform given to better-known activists may have Writers been intended to take heat off the gov- ernment. But the severity of the final sentences promises continued difficulties between China and the West. In the United States, human-rights questions could and Editors affect a review that will last until April of China's most-favored-nation status. Although the Chinese government has released some imprisoned activists, hun- U.S.News & World Report has just published the sixth edition of its Stylebook for Writers dreds of pro-democracy workers remain in jail. Exiled dissidents, many of whom are and Editors and is proud to offer it for sale to in the United States and France, have been told they can return to China without the public. fear of prosecution if they promise never to protest against the government again. Few will accept those terms. So at least until leader Deng Xiaoping dies, any This authoritative and completely revised resurgent democracy movement will probably have to develop outside, not inside reference edition is wirebound SO that it can China. be used with ease. It is arranged alphabetically to provide quick and direct assistance, whether it is how to use A SKY-HIGH PRICE FOR GERMAN UNITY punctuation marks, when to capitalize or when and how to abbreviate. The new edition A newly calculated bill for German unification of up to $1 trillion in the next also addresses the fine points of grammar and decade is higher than almost anyone expected. In eastern Germany, huge numbers highlights words and phrases that are of businesses are collapsing, and cities such as Dresden are nearly bankrupt. By frequently misused. midsummer, nearly 3 million people in the east may be unemployed. The U.S. News stylebook, which is available And the worst may be yet to come. Eastern Germans are likely to go on spending only by mail, will improve your use of the much of their money in western Germany, while the Soviet market, once the great language, and U.S. News will donate a portion hope for eastern-German exports, is expected to continue its decline. Given the of the proceeds from sales to a literacy east's difficulties, economists now predict that barely 20 percent of eastern Germa- program. ny's industry will be intact by 1992. Chancellor Helmut Kohl will give For your copy, send check or money order for $3.4 billion in immediate emèr- $12.40 ($9.95 plus $2.45 for shipping and CONGRATULATIONS handling to continental U.S. addresses) to: gency aid to the east. The We ARe NOW JOINED decision is seen, in part, AT THe WALLeT. STYLEBOOK as an effort to quell U.S.News & World Report growing anger over his 2400 N Street, N.W. decision to give $10.6 Washington, DC 20037-1196 billion to the gulf war. Allow 3-4 weeks for delivery. Beyond that, Kohl's move shows that his initial unification re- covery plan, which hinged W.GERMANY E.GERMANY AUTHORS WANTED BY on foreign and domestic in- NEW YORK PUBLISHER vestment in the east and on the Leading subsidy book publisher seeks manuscripts opening of new Eastern Euro- of all types: fiction, non-fiction, poetry, scholarly pean markets, has gone bust. and juvenile works, etc. New authors welcomed. Send for free, illustrated 32-page brochure S69 Vantage Press, 516 W.34 St., New York, N.Y. 10001 U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991 ROGERS/THE PITTSBURGH PRESS UNITED FEATURE SYNDICATE PROFILE BUSINESS WISH BOOK PRICE WARS AMONG AIRLINES For 104 years, the Sears catalog Another outbreak of fare wars may leave wreckage among the nation's struggling has been America's "wish book," airlines. Already operating under bankruptcy protection, Pan American World bringing the general store into mil- Airways could be the big loser in the battle that has forced it and several others to offer lions of living rooms. But the cut-rate tickets on many routes in world's largest retailer has fallen on the United States and Europe. hard times, announcing a 37 percent With higher fuel costs and de- drop in fourth-quarter earnings and clining numbers of passengers, 33,000 layoffs. The bad news fuels the new fares are expected to rumors, which Sears denies, that it increase the industry's woes. may do away with its catalog. For both Pan Am and Trans For years, many rural homes had World Airlines, also in dire two books: the SEARS, ROEBUCK straits, a lot depends on the Brit- HOUSE Bible and the ish government. It has held up Sears catalog. In the proposed sale of the two THE C.E.O. HAS TURNED ON THE BANKRUPTCY SIGN PLEASE FASTEN YOUR SEATBELTS WHILE WE ATTEMPT TO RETURN THE AIRLINE CONSUMERS the 1880s, Rich- companies' London routes until TO THE UPRIGHT POSITION.." GUIDE ard Sears, a rail- the United States lifts restrictions barring foreign carriers from flying passengers road agent, between major American cities. The ruckus has caused Transportation Secretary joined with a Samuel Skinner to halt British Airways' effort to offer its own cheaper London fares. watchmaker Meanwhile, the Justice Department has new concerns that the few remaining healthy named Alvah competitors could become too dominant. Last week, the department's antitrust An 1896 catalog Roebuck to division announced its opposition to United Airlines' plans to buy the defunct launch a mail-or- Eastern Airlines' slots at Washington National Airport. der business. During its heyday, the "big book" contained 1,500 pages, COMPETITION FOR CELLULAR TELEPHONES weighed 6 pounds and reached 20 million people. A lifeline to the hin- Competition in the red-hot cellular-telephone industry is about to get a lot hotter. terlands, it offered 100,000 products, In a breakthrough decision, the Federal Communications Commission has changed from coffee to corsets; from Sooth- the rules that currently allow only two companies to operate cellular services in each ing Syrup, a children's opium-based city. The change will permit firms that now provide mobile communications for auto cough remedy, to the Giant Power fleets to offer more or less the same service as cellular companies. By adding a third Heidelberg Electric Belt-said to competitor, the FCC hopes the cost of cellular service will decline. relieve almost every abdominal dis- tress imaginable. Sears can even say it helped build America, and not MONEY CLIP just with hammers and saws. By 1927, more than 35,000 people had constructed "Honor Bilt" kit homes, complete with paint and cupboards. Retail sales, ac- PERCENTAGE 2% Decline in U.S. auto With most Americans living in ur- counting for a third CHANGE SALES sales, early February ban areas by 1920, mail-order shop- of the nation's total 1990 to early Febru- 1 ping began to give way to retail economic activity, ary 1991: 23.5% are in a funk. stores. Today, the catalog, with $4 Decline in gas sta- billion in sales, still has higher reve- Decline in retail tion sales in January nues than any other mail-order busi- sales from January 1991: 2.3% ness. But it has been unprofitable 1990 to January Average price of a -1 1991: 1.4% (first gallon of unleaded for two years, as Sears has lost year-over-year de- 1991 gasoline in January ground to specialty catalogs and dis- cline since 1961) 1990 1991: $1.23 count retailers. The "Farmer's Bi- 1989 Note: Figures Total liabilities of are seasonaily adjusted July 1990: $1.05 ble," as it was called, is losing the change from previous month. Carter Hawley Hale USN&WR-Basic data: U.S. Dept. of Commerce January 1991 de- game it helped to create. If the cat- Stores, now in Chap- cline in industrial alog winds up being shut down or ter 11: $1.38 billion RETAIL IN THE ROUGH production: 0.4% sold, America could lose a mass- Other retailers to A decline in retail sales (fourth straight market link to its rustic past. default on debt in was spurred by a sharp dive monthly decline, 1991: Best Products, in sales of automobiles. the longest decline BY AMY BERNSTEIN Peebles, Hills since 1982) 14 SEARS, ROEBUCK & CO.; WALT HANDELSMAN/THE TIMES-PICAYUNE - TRIBUNE MEDIA SERVICES U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991 Listen to your heart. are IS HEALTHY FAT* LOW CHOICE LOW 310 Make the Healthy Choice® LOW Now Healthy Choice® has more dinner choices. Imaginative new meals like tangy Mesquite Chicken and Yankee Pot Roast. Made with quality ingredients to be deliciously satisfying. More Healthy Choices. But still, only one Healthy Choice. DINNER BRAND DINNERS FAT SODIUM CHOLESTEROL (Line Averages) (% of calories) (mg) (mg) Healthy Choice® 12 385 48 Le Menu® 39 985 N/A Le Menu® LightStyle 23 732 58 Budget Gourmet® 41 1044 81 DISPATCHES DATELINE POOR LITTLE, RICH LITTLE DRUG TOWN U.S. News's Peter Cary recently ROMA, TEXAS - Dustblown, downbeat and halfway destitute, this hamlet of 4,500 is wrote a letter home from Saudi an economic basket case in the nation's poorest county. Annual per capita income Arabia, where he is covering the for the 40,000 residents of Starr County in the Lower Rio Grande Valley was $4,313 gulf war. Some excerpts: in 1989. Dryland agriculture - citrus, cattle - is marginal, and there is little industry. The main business district is a time-warp jumble of peeling 1950s-era T he big news is the Hunt for storefronts and frontier Western ghost-town facades. In 1989, the local unemploy- the Renegades, a small num- ment rate rose to a Depression-era high of 45 percent. At a quick glance, Roma is ber of photographers trying to the archetype of a broken-down, tumbleweed Tex-Mex border town: sunbleached, cover the war outside the press sleepy, impoverished. pools. They bypass roadblocks in But stick around and look closer. Luxury vehicles cruise up and down the rented white Toyotas and Land washboard gravel streets. Lavish homes-from English Tudor-style mansions to Rovers. The military is on the look- turreted French faux châteaux- tower over unpainted cinderblock shacks with out. The Alabama National Guard backyard privies. Land along DAVID WOO THE DALLAS MORNING NEWS captured, blindfolded and held one US 83, the county's main overnight for interrogation. "Who's commercial strip, sells for up the governor of New York?" they to $80,000 an acre-tenfold asked. He was carrying an expired the value that residents here New York driver's license, which might otherwise regard as made the Guard plenty 'spicious. fair. One 55-mile section con- The punishment is unclear, but we tains count conve- hear threats of being kicked out of nience-food stores, far more the country. Some punishment- like than such a seemingly hard- that for soldiers in Vietnam. "What up area can logically support. are you going to do, send me to Bank deposits in 1989, flat al- Vietnam?" was the standard line. most everywhere else in Tex- The main problem here is that as, grew 52 percent in Starr there's nothing to do unless you're County. Bashful. DEA agent and prisoner one of the 120 reporters out on Welcome to Roma, the pools. The rest, who roam the JIB Richest Little Poor Town in Texas, a place where $5 will buy you a belly-bustin' meal (Joint Information Bureau), are of barbecued cabrito and $500, a pair of hand-tooled ostrich-skin Tony Lama boots. called JIBLETS. They meddle and The bizarre extremes of poverty and wealth are attributable to drug money. With the schmooze endlessly in a vast, churn- current crackdown in south Florida, roughly one third of the marijuana and cocaine ing sea of misinformation. The entering the United States now comes across this short strip of South Texas border worst press scene is in Dhahran, that's as porous as cheesecloth. where hundreds wait but few are Smuggling in both directions across the waist-deep Rio Grande has been an chosen for pools. Those with Land integral part of the warp and weft of Starr County since frontier times. This tradition Rovers drive in the desert to get bred, until recently, a widespread nod-and-wink tolerance for trafficking. Even them dusty. Some people even though most residents were not involved in illegal activities, the money stimulated smear their cars with mud. All this the local economy. makes it look like you've been While gun shops, furniture dealers, expensive clothing stores, jewelers and auto somewhere, when you haven't. A re- dealers profit from the free-spending contrabandistas, the drug dollars have badly porters' joke: What do you call a skewed the rest of the local economy. Owners of legitimate businesses cannot rental car? An all-terrain vehicle. compete with price undercutting by cash-laundering retail fronts. Dope profits used Shopping is all bored Americans to purchase acreage at excessive prices have inflated land values, frozen out honest do. There are hundreds of stores developers and raised real-estate taxes. selling TVs, boomboxes and watch- Now, many of Roma's honest business owners are eager to wean the town's es. GIs wander dazed through the economy from the illegal money, and there are modest signs of change. Juan Muñoz, malls, confronted by equally dazed 35, owner of a flourishing seed, feed and veterinary-supply business, acknowledges clerks. Everyone shops; hardly any- that drug dollars have been spent in his store. But he would like to see every last one buys. Shop till you drop - liter- doper driven out of Starr County. Says Muñoz: "The feds are finally beginning to ally, if there is a gas attack. Most of hurt the drug mafiosi. When they get wiped out, what are we gonna do with $80,000 us aren't carrying our masks. We an acre lots? I'm looking forward to when we go back to basics, have to work twice as may be overconfident, but at least hard and drive Chevrolets again. Roma will be a better place." we're getting sleep. Lots of sleep. Wish you were here. BY MICHAEL SATCHELL 16 U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991 No ONE KNOWS THE LAND LIKE A NAVAJO. Mazda Navajo In a place studded with saguaros, gouged a significant cost advantage over virtually all of its by arroyos, and knee-deep in cholla, it helps to know Navajo. comparably-equipped competitors. Despite this key edge, The new Mazda Navajo. A four-wheeler SO it boasts a full spectrum of power-assisted amenities tough and smart, the editors of Motor Trend saw sport seats power disc/drum brakes with rear ABS and fit to name it the "1991 Truck of the Year." four-speaker AM/FM sound system." How did the Navajo earn this prestigious honor? So go ahead and get to know the land. Take your With a 4.0-liter V6 mated to shift-on-the-fly four-wheel family. Take your camping gear. And take the advice of drive. And an independent front suspension system that Motor Trend. Take the Mazda Navajo. gives each wheel a separate axle and coil spring. 36-MONTH/50,000-MILE WARRANTY In fact, the Navajo can make even the harshest No-deductible, "bumper-to-bumper" protection. See your terrain actually comfortable. dealer for limited warranty details. For a free brochure on Or as Motor Trend magazine put it, "Driver and any new Mazda car or truck, call toll-free, 1-800-345-3799. passenger comfort is this Mazda's hallmark. The Navajo's mazDa interior is accommodating and well-designed, and the IT JUST FEELS RIGHT.® suspension sops up bumps-like towels sop up spills." They went on to say, "The Navajo enjoys DOG GOODS arx ATX © 1990 Mazda Motor of America, Inc. MOTOR TREND 'TRUCK OF THE YEAR" ENTERPRISE PEOPLE RISKY BUSINESS ZORA NEALE HURSTON and LANGSTON HUGHES, two leading lights of American literature, collaborated When the Soviet Union's prime on a play that they hoped would hit Broadway and minister accused the West of trying radically alter theatrical depictions of the ways black to spark an economic coup of his Americans lived and spoke. But the two writers quar- country, he was also deepening an as- reled over the folk comedy, and their close friendship sault on home-grown capitalists such foundered, as did plans for producing their play. Now "Mule Bone" has finally as Artyem Tarasov. Moscow's first opened on Broadway - more than 60 years after it was written. official millionaire, the 40-year-old Tarasov has led the charge for mar- DOUGLAS HANN has a good reason to watch what he says from now ket reforms. Now he and other wan- on. The Brown University junior is believed to be the first student ever nabe capitalists are in full retreat. expelled from college for violating "hate speech" regulations. On his SOVFOTO An inventor and 21st birthday last October, the football player stood inebriated in a trader, Tarasov built dormitory courtyard and shouted racial, ethnic and antihomosexual the economic dyna- slurs. Hann, a Pittsburgh native, had been punished for a similar mo Istok by swap- incident when he was a freshman. Controversial antiharassment codes have recently ping materials such been instituted at several other major universities. as wood and fertiliz- er for high-tech JIM BAKKER, founder of the defunct PTL Network, may see his goods. But for Tara- prayers answered - of. Although a Virginia-based federal appeals sov, who is also a court upheld the televangelist's 1989 conviction for fleecing his follow- Russian parliamen- ers, the panel said Judge Robert Potter's religious beliefs improperly Tarasov tarian, the good influenced him when he dealt Bakker a 45-year prison term. Spear- times ended last month shortly after heading Bakker's appeal was Alan Dershowitz, the Harvard law he accused Mikhail Gorbachev of se- professor known as "the lawyer of last resort." Bakker's attorneys have asked that he cretly agreeing to sell Japan the Ku- be released from his Minnesota prison cell while he awaits resentencing. ril Islands, which the Soviets seized at the end of World War II. That's GARY SHEPHERD, thirtysomething, died last week in a tragic high- when government agents raided Tar- way pileup. The shaggy-haired, infrequently employed English profes- asov's offices, and now they want to sor is survived by an unpleasant wife and a daughter, a friend named charge him with the new crime of in- Nancy Weston, who has been suffering from cancer, and a bevy of sulting Gorbachev. But Tarasov's comrades on ABC's "thirtysomething" television show. (Peter Horton, bigger problem may come from in- the actor who played Shepherd, will continue to direct some episodes.) vestigations of his enterprises. Pro- tests by liberals aside, he could well MARK TWAIN wrote and rewrote "The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn." But have tripped in the maze of inten- scholars have long been stymied because half of the manuscript was lost, seemingly tionally vague Soviet trade laws that to the ages. That changed when 665 heavily annotated pages turned up in a bar business practices regarded as California attic, revealing a gold mine. The pages vary widely from published texts acceptable in the West. and include one long section that has probably not been seen in more than a century. Other businessmen face deeper THE GRANGER COLLECTION DAVID KARP-AP problems; many of them have been accused of moving scarce resources Twice onto black markets, thus improving profitability. And many entrepre- neurs fear they will face the fate of the kulaks who profited under Le- nin's economic liberalization, only to wind up in Siberia, or worse, under Stalin. Hard-liners regard Tarasov and his ilk as "malignant tumors" on society. That's a far cry from the role as the heart and soul of a revitalized Soviet economy that these entrepre- neurs expected to play only a few months ago. BY JEFF TRIMBLE Treasure trove. Twain's original manuscript has been discovered. 18 AP; SPRINGER BETTMANN FILM ARCHIVE: THE BROWN SPECTATOR; AP; ABC U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991 uestions to ask yourself about business insurance: cheat "When on does your pay you does your day ?" The truth is, every individual control this cost by combating and business insured by fraud. Our Special Investiga- defrauded insurance tions Unit probes and companies pay in higher prosecutes suspicious claims. premiums. The total cost is Last year, the unit saved more hundreds of millions of than $25 million in fraudulent dollars every year, by con- and inflated claims. servative estimates. Fighting fraudulent claims The CNA Insurance Com- is one more way CNA fulfills panies and our independent its commitment to keep agents both work hard to insurance affordable. Ask your independent agent about CNA. CNA provides property/casualty, life/health and employee benefits insurance. Independent agents who represent CNA are listed in the Yellow Pages. INSURANCE FROM CNA For All the Commitments You Make® CNA Insurance Companies/CNA Plaza/Chicago, IL 60685 ON SOCIETY BY JOHN LEO The menace of quota-think A curious story from a friend who follows New York blacks buy one third of theater tickets, they deserve one City politics closely: Three municipal employees, third of important industry jobs and control of one third all white males, recently decided not to attend an of all movies. (How would this quota principle apply to important committee meeting because their attendance the basketball industry, which has predominately white would skew the racial balance in the room. This is the ticket buyers and predominately black jobholders?) quota mentality, the dominant mind-set these days on ra- Quota-thinking seems to be invading the criminal-jus- cial and sexual matters. Better to skip work than to pre- tice system as well. The statistical argument that a dispro- sent an ethnically flawed group profile. portionate number of blacks suffer the death penalty is a A group of militant female artists, seized by this mental- valid one. Many courts have been guilty of a double stan- ity, is accusing the Metropolitan Museum of Art of being dard. But the argument has an unstated corollary: that if sexist because 95 percent of the paintings in the museum arrest and conviction rates for blacks are unusually high, are by males, whereas 85 percent of the nude statues are that too must be the result of prejudice. This has slipped female. Alas, there is no male-female into casual conversation among balance in the history of art, but muse- some analysts as "the crimi- ums nowadays should presumably nalizing" of young black fashion one for past eras anyway, males, as if the higher a sort of retroactive affirmative crime rate is something action. The best way out would society imposes and obviously be for the Met to not an obvious result of discover several hundred an- something criminals cient male nude statues, all su- do. The same hidden perbly wrought by hitherto un- quota can be unearthed known female artists. behind many of the plans By law, all textbooks used in to prosecute parents for California public schools must ap- the behavior of their chil- ply this sort of retro-quota in his- dren. They are controver- tory, art and science: Contributions of males BONNIE TIMMONS FOR USN&WR sial and perhaps unwise and females must be presented in equal num- plans, but are usually op- bers. For reasons beyond the control of Califor- posed by the American Civil Liberties Union on nia, perhaps 95 percent of achieving artists and the ground that poor people are likely to be scientists have been male. Most of us regret this disproportionately prosecuted. That appar- exclusion of females. California just erases it and ently means that for every poor mother of a tells its children a high-minded historical whopper. violent gang member you arrest you must in fairness pick up Gulf inequities. The best current example of the quota a rich gang mother. mentality in action is the flap over the number of black In politics, candidates more frankly promise job quotas soldiers in the Persian Gulf war. Blacks account for 12 by sex and race. Dianne Feinstein, in her campaign for percent of the American population and over 24 percent of governor of California, promised to hire women and minor- American troops. If you are a quota hard-liner, all you must ities in direct proportion to their population in the state. do to demonstrate unfairness is point out that 24 is a That is approximately what her successful opponent, Pete distinctly higher number than 12. But why is it unfair? This is Wilson, promised when he was mayor of San Diego, and a volunteer Army, and the training and benefits the Army what New York Mayor David Dinkins is promising now. offers (along with the risk of getting shot) will obviously This sounds benign - in a perfect world each job category appeal more strongly to those on the way up economically should have diverse workers- but in effect it sets up a and those striving to escape mean streets at home. Some of system of group entitlement at the expense of merit. A those arguing now that blacks are being exploited in the gulf fraction of Indian blood has become very valuable under action are precisely the people who argued for years that quota plans. That may be one of the reasons the number of the armed forces should open up more to minorities and Americans listing themselves as Native Americans has tri- become instruments for social equality. Now that this has pled since 1960. Quotas also mean firing people if their been done, the objectors have flip-flopped. And if the Army group numbers get too high. By strict quota-thinking, that announced tomorrow that it would accept a 12 percent should happen to blacks now in Compton, Calif., which is quota of blacks, and no more, wouldn't the objectors flip turning from a mostly black to a black and Latino city. once again and complain about racial exclusion? Latinos hold fewer than 10 percent of the city jobs and Quota-thinking has become reflexive, even outside the account for 30 percent of the population. Must black job- normal parameters of the affirmative-action debate. Op- holders clear out, simply because the town's ethnic mix is eration PUSH's campaign against Nike boils down to the changing, or is that something that voting and the give and argument that since blacks buy so many sneakers they take of politics can take care of better than quotas? should proportionately share, as a group, in Nike profits. Enough. Quota-thinking is a social menace. Let's be The same argument has surfaced in Hollywood: Since done with it before it poisons our politics. 20 U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991 THE INTERNATIONAL SUBSIDIARY OF HILTON USA HOTEL HOTEL HOTEL CONRAD CONRAD CONRAD DUBLIN PUERTO VALLARTA BRUSSELS Dublin Mexico (1991) Brussels (1992) HOTEL CONRAD HOTEL LA BELLE CONRAD JUPITERS CREOLE LOS CABOS CASINO A CONRAD HOTEL Gold Coast, Australia Mexico (1992) St. Martin, Caribbean LE HOTEL HOTEL CONRAD METROPOLE CONRAD PALACE CANCUN LONDON ACONRAD HOTEL Mexico Monte Carlo London HOTEL HOTEL HOTEL CONRAD CONRAD CONRAD HONG KONG SCARBOROUGH ISTANBUL Hong Kong Toronto (1992) Istanbul (1991) The finest hotels in the world all share the same first name. In the tradition of Conrad Hilton and his famed Waldorf Towers comes Conrad Hotels. The first international hotels with standards proud enough to bear his name. 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WASHINGTON WHISPERS be making a great mistake if he thought we were distracted by the gulf. On the contrary, there is special Western vigilance at present." AS BAKER slips, Bush takes charge of gulf diplomacy Polls apart. U.S. News has learned that a private poll taken in the Moscow CUOMO leads, Jackson trails in Democratic fund-raising area shows greater support there for the U.S.-led coalition in the Persian Gulf JOSEPH KENNEDY II: He's no Jack Kennedy than for Moscow's crackdown in the Baltics. Almost 40 percent of the Soviet TAYLOR JONES FOR USN&WR respondents approved using force Cooling off. As White House insid- against Saddam Hussein. In sharp ers see it, the first signs of friction contrast, 80 percent said Moscow have begun to appear in the profes- should not use military force under any sional partnership between President circumstances in the Baltics, and 61 Bush and Secretary of State James percent agreed that Estonia, Latvia Baker. According to the sources- and Lithuania should be independent. who have an obvious interest in downgrading the diplomatic role of the secretary of state - Bush has told Dollars for Democrats. With its first- advisers that in order to exercise in-the-nation caucuses one year closer personal supervision of post- away, the Iowa political front remains war planning for the gulf, he wants eerily quiet. At the same time, how- control of Mideast policy centralized ever, potential Democratic candi- at the White House, a desire made dates are continuing to fill campaign more relevant by Iraq's condition- war chests. Here are the latest totals laden offer last week to withdraw from the Federal Election Commis- from Kuwait. Bush is also said to feel sion: New York Gov. Mario Cuomo, he can best monitor policy decisions $3.8 million; Georgia Sen. Sam through National Security Adviser Nunn, $1.6 million; Tennessee Sen. Brent Scowcroft, an unassuming Al Gore, $708,000; Senate Majority team player who works down the Leader George Mitchell, $491,000; hall, rather than Baker, whose office French President François Mitterrand House Majority Leader Richard is some dozen blocks away in Foggy Front-line forces, backdoor diplomacy Gephardt, $193,000; and 1988 veep Bottom and who, the sources con- nominee Lloyd Bentsen, $148,000. tend, has a penchant for "self-pro- The Rev. Jesse Jackson has raised motion." As one example, they cite Obsession in Paris. To counter U.S. $712 not enough to buy even a few Baker's role in the embarrassing an- postwar dominance in the gulf, France seconds of advertising on his syndi- nouncement - a few minutes before is knitting together a curious alliance cated TV show. Bush's State of the Union message - with Iran and the Soviet Union. That, of a joint U.S.-Soviet statement im- say well-connected sources in Paris, is plying a softening of Washington's the meaning of high-level French visits Rage and regret. Rep. Joseph Kenne- stance on negotiating with Iraq. That this month to Tehran and Moscow and dy II is not endearing himself to Capi- upstaged the President's speech and of a phone call from President Fran- tol Hill colleagues, even fellow liberals. later forced him to deny there had çois Mitterrand to his Iranian counter- The 38-year-old son of Robert Kennedy been any change in U.S. policy. In part, Hashemi Rafsanjani. Even as has been forced to write letters apolo- addition, Bush is said to feel that the elite French troops are poised on the gizing for his behavior during a strategy war and the tenuous situation in the Saudi front, Mitterrand works through session of Democrats opposed to the Soviet Union may have overbur- backdoor diplomacy to assure France use of force in the gulf. Sources say that dened his old friend and that Baker's a key role in the postwar Mideast. during the meeting-held a few days talents and experience could be most before the the Massachusetts efficiently employed by allowing him third-termer lashed out at those who to focus primarily on relations be- Parallel thoughts. Unlike the failed to support his proposal to ban tween Washington and Moscow. Fi- French, the British continue to view military action against Iraq for at least nally, the president believes his the world in close parallel with the a year, and he implied that his fellow evolving relationships with political United States. Assessing the Soviet doves were only motivated by a desire leaders in the Mideast are made-to- crisis, for example, one high-ranking to get their names in the papers - a de- order for top-level personal diploma- London insider explains: "There's no sire, colleagues say, not unknown to cy. Calling the report "trash," Assis- point in abandoning Gorbachev if by Kennedy himself. tant Secretary of State Margaret doing SO we hasten repression and vi- Tutwiler attributed it to "a disgrun- olence. It's a matter of estimating tled staffer stirring the pot." how best to help. Gorbachev would EDITED BY CHARLES FENYVESI U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991 21 Saddam Hussein's mil- THE GULF WAR itary fantasies ended last week, but his bid for victory continued. With his military forces nearly crushed, morale DESERT crumbling and his ene- Desperate STORM mies poised to launch a ferocious land and air attack, the embattled Iraqi leader launched a desperate campaign to cap- ture at the peace table what he has been denied on the battlefield. In his two- front sally — the dissemination of heart- gambits wrenching pictures of civilians killed in the U.S. bombing of a Baghdad bunker and the announcement of a peace of- fer - Hussein tried to save the remnants of his Army and his own skin. "He feels As his troops flee and his remaining force faces destruction, Saddam Hussein broadcasts new IRAQI TV peace feelers and gruesome TV images to save his skin. Will his ploys poison the postwar world? the noose tightening," says Bard O'Neill shock - the ground assault — and the en- is stirring few minds outside the Muslim of the National War College. tire Iraqi Army will collapse," the source world. Americans barely blinked at Hus- Hussein's gambits could fail entirely. said. And the allied ground strategy is sein's gestures, continuing to rally be- President Bush denounced them as a poised to deliver just such a blow: a swift, hind one of the most popular wars in the "cruel hoax" and prepared to push to- devastating attack on an Iraqi weak spot nation's history. Nonetheless, Hussein's ward a final resolution of the Persian that allied commanders hope will crack gambits graphically illustrate what U.S. Gulf war. Allied bombing runs at Iraq's Hussein's forces the way a diamond cut- officials have recognized from the begin- troops in Kuwait intensified and wreaked ter cuts a diamond, with a single bold ning: The gulf conflict is two different major new damage on his war machine. stroke (Page 38). wars being played on different battle- One knowledgeable military source said Just as important, Bush has mobilized fields. Washington has always been con- that at week's end tens of thousands of most of world opinion solidly behind the Iraqi soldiers were scurrying north, away war, SO that Hussein's bid for sympathy TOP ROW (LEFT TO RIGHT): AFP; CNN; CNN; AFP; AFP; ABC; CNN; CNN; CNN; AFP; CNN; AFP; CNN; CBS; TV PHOTO BY JEFFREY MacMILLAN - USN&WR from the impending allied onslaught. He said the Pentagon's claims that about one third of Iraq's ground armaments had been destroyed was too low - that the Iraqi ТУ WAS true "degradation" wreaked by allied bombers on Iraqi tanks and artillery had Bernard hit 50 percent. "All it will take now is one Shaw 04 4 THE GULF WAR called the 19th province of Iraq - is proof that Hussein knows his days are num- fident that it could wipe out Hussein's bered. But the peace bid seemed clearly Desert Storm military machine. What has worried it designed for public-relations purposes, TURKEY more is whether he, as martyr, could win rather than for serious bargaining, be- WEEK 5 the hearts and minds of other people cause it contained new conditions for the and thus secure a political victory. He allies to meet before Hussein would with- recently has achieved some success on draw from Kuwait, including a demand Incirlik Peace plan the streets of the Middle East, and per- that the allies forgive the estimated $90 haps in the Kremlin, and now Washing- billion in debt Iraq owes. Iraq struggled last week to alter or delay the ton and its allies are working hard to U.S. officials made it clear they would allied military campaign close off his final escape. continue the air war until there is real by unveiling a "peace Analysts say the nub of Hussein's evidence Hussein is serious. The best way initiative," but U.S. strategy is to stall his foes' military ef- to persuade him to keep moving toward officials said this will not Mediterranean hinder their war plans forts and divide the coalition. His pro- peace is to keep destroying his tanks, they Sea paganda war is based on promoting two argued. A cease-fire, say some observers, contradictory images: a ruthless warrior should also include a provision that it Scud launches and a victim. Hussein the "warrior" must hold on all battlefields and that Total against Israel: 32 wants to frighten the West and thrill the terrorism outside the Kuwaiti theater of 1st week: 13 Arab world with his brutal power. operations linked to Iraq will constitute a 2nd week: 13 That's why he showcased tortured pris- violation of the cease-fire. 3rd week: 4 LEBANON 4th week: 2 oners of war and hostages on television. What distresses the Bush administra- 5th week: 0 Hussein the "victim" strives for the tion is that the number of apparent will- Damascus As of February 15 PETER DeJCNG DOD POOL ing accomplices to Hus- Haifa sein's tactics might be growing. White House ISRAEL aides are concerned about the ambiguous role Soviet Tel Aviv diplomats began to play JORDAN last week, as they moved to become mediators and Jerusalem Amman ensure their country a place at the peace table (Page 30). And some Bush Bombing the bunkers allies worried that the rup- The command and control center in Baghdad ture in relations with Jor- that was destroyed with two laser-guided dan would greatly compli- bombs by U.S. F-117 bombers last week was cate the search for peace apparently being used by civilians as a bomb shelter. The facility was constructed in the early between the Israelis and 1980s and converted to a hardened command the Palestinians. and control center, further fortified in the late Even if Hussein were to 1980s with protection against electromagnetic Kuwait-bound. A howitzer heads for the final drive. sweeten his withdrawal of- pulses in case of a nuclear attack, according to the Pentagon fer to meet most of the more classical propagandist's goal of United Nations resolutions, it is not bringing enmity to his enemies by clear that Washington would accept it. Tigris stressing the damage they are inflicting. As the war has progressed, Bush has River "Forget how horrible he is." Hussein seemingly adopted two unstated goals clearly is unconcerned about the hypoc- that stretch beyond U.N. mandates. Saddam City risy that lies behind these contradictory One has been largely achieved through images. "He wants to hold up a mirror air strikes: the decimation of Iraq's ca- to the eyes of the West to show how pacity to wage war against its neigh- horrible they are and to forget how hor- bors. The other is to force Hussein's DEFENSE Bunker MINISTRY rible he is," says Haifa University Prof. departure from power-preferably by a bombing Baghdad Amatzia Bar'am, author of a book on coup in Baghdad. A cease-fire that raid Saddam Hussein. The devilish irony of leaves him in place would create prob- AL RASHID HOTEL it is that the very success of American lems for Bush. PRESIDENTIAL Patriot missiles in knocking out Hus- To win support at home and from oth- COMPOUND sein's Scud attacks on Saudi Arabia and er Muslims, Hussein is publicly arguing Israel before they can kill many civilians what he probably believes himself: Ku- hinders the United States in the image wait is only an excuse. The Americans UNIVERSITY OF BAGHDAD wars. There are few gruesome pictures want to subjugate the Iraqi nation be- to show of Hussein's evil intent. cause Iraq is the torchbearer of Arab On the diplomatic side, stalling is his liberation and the only nation to keep SCALE OF MILES motive. Defense analysts believe that in Israel in check. Allied bombing of 0 1 2 3 4 5 10 his late-week offer, Hussein's willingness bridges, government ministries and oil to backtrack on his pledge never to relin- refineries inside Iraq supports his charge 100 200 quish Kuwait - land he has repeatedly that this is not a war about liberating 24 U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991 Bad moon rising In the weeks ahead, several moonless nights will provide Diyarbakir allied forces with an increased military advantage. Advanced night-vision equipment gives the coalition forces an edge, and high tides offer amphibious teams easier access to the Kuwaiti coast Mosul Tehran MOONLESS NIGHT SYRIA Irbil An allied assault is most likely to Scud attacks occur when the moon sets before midnight and rises after 5 a.m., Kirkuk Y Iraq launched Scud providing maximum darkness missiles toward Hafar al HIGHER TIDES Tigris Batin from positions north Tide marks indicate high tide at WEATHER EXTREMES River of Baghdad last week for Kuwait City during the night, the first time since the providing the best chance of a Temp. Wind Baghdad start of the war. U.S. successful amphibious landing (F°) (max) Tikrit combat aircraft, however, IRAN RELIGIOUS HOLIDAYS February: 84/25 50 mph March: 88/30 55 mph Samarra still managed to destroy Adherents of Islam fast daily at least six Iraqi Scud during the month of Ramadan, Obstruction to visibility. launchers putting a severe strain on their February: 20 days ability to engage in war March: 18 days Moonless Moon Higher February night phase tides Al Rutba Baghdad 17 Sun Jordan-Baghdad 18 Mon Highway G 19 Tues a Karbala WEATHER EXTREMES 20 Wed Kuwait 21 Thur Temp. Wind City (F°) (max) 22 Fri Holy day Najaf Amarah February: 88/30 66 mph 23 Sat March: 102/33 60 mph 24 Sun IRAQ Obstruction to visibility: 25 Mon More than Euphrates February: 16 days 26 Tues River 70,000 air March: 18 days 27 Wed Tapline sorties in first Road 28 Thur 30 days of Operation March Desert Basra 1 Fri Holy day Storm 2 Sat 3 Sun Hijarah 4 Mon Rafha Desert Persian Gulf 5 Tues door pollop KUWAIT Kuwait 6 Wed Neutral City 7 Thur 8 Fri Holy day 9 Sat Khafji 10 Sun SAUDI 11 Mon ARABIA Hafar al 12 Tues Scud launches Batin 13 Wed U.S. Total against Marines 14 Thur Saudi Arabia: 32 15 Fri Holy day WEATHER EXTREMES 1st week: 22 16 Sat 2nd week: 5 Hafar Temp. Wind Jubayl 17 Sun Islamic 3rd week: 0 al Batin (F (max) 18 Mon month of G 4th week: 5 February: 88/30 53 mph March: 19 Tues Ramadan G 5th week: 0* 100/32 42 mph Dhahran 20 Wed G * As of February 15 Obstruction to visibility: 21 Thur February: 9 days March: 11 days 22 Fn G Key A dress rehearsal 23 Sat 24 Sun Muslim holy site Coalition forces last week pounded 25 Mon Iraqi positions in southern Kuwait 26 Tues Iraqi troops Riyadh with artillery, naval gunfire and air 27 Wed strikes that included the dropping of Allied troops fuel-air explosives and 15,000-lb. 28 Thur "daisy cutter" bombs in order to 29 Fri Air base clear a path through Iraqi laid mine- 30 Sat 15 fields for allied ground troops 31 Sun Easter USN&WR Basic data: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; U.S. Depts. of 500 SCALE OF MILES Agriculture and Defense DAVID S. 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The officials larger battle for hearts and minds, the "wins" if he stays in power in Iraq. said target planners were unaware that Baghdad bombing showed how signifi- There is growing evidence, though, civilians used the facility. But the words cant the U.S. disadvantage is for the that the Iraqi people aren't buying Hus- of the briefers paled in comparison with time being-if only because Hussein sein's arguments. Western peace activ- the horrific televised pictures. Those im- now controls the pictures. Western re- ists recently in Iraq have told U.S. de- ages sparked strong condemnation, in porters can see and broadcast only what fense officials that more and more part because they helped ground uneasi- he allows from Iraq; none has been per- Iraqis see Hussein as the source of the ness in some countries that the number mitted into Kuwait, where many atroc- agony the country is enduring. Reports of allied bombing sorties which passed ities reportedly have occurred. also suggest that his broadcasts of great 72,000 last week was excessive. After Liberating Kuwait City. The American military victories are increasingly greet- several minutes of graphic footage on the goal is to deny Hussein a martyr's mantle. ed with cynicism by the Iraqis. That sit- night of the bombing, German television Once Kuwait is freed, officials believe, DARRYL HEIKES the United States will regain the upper hand in the propaganda war. "There will be two dominant images beamed around the world the day Kuwait City is liberat- ed," predicted one administration offi- cial. "The first is jubilant Kuwaitis greet- ing their own troops, marching arm in arm with other Arab liberators while Americans lend a helping hand. The sec- ond will be Kuwait's version of the Bagh- dad bombing - the first good look at the rape of Kuwait. And the pictures will be just as awful." A Pentagon team is also gathering evidence to support war- crimes charges. Some administration of- ficials are pushing for war-crimes trials, using a precedent established at the Nazi trials in Nuremberg under which com- manders, including those prosecuting a war, can be charged with the crimes com- mitted by their troops if they were part of military policy. In the theaters of public opinion that matter most to Bush for prosecuting the war - America, Europe, Japan and key segments of the Arab world-support Time to go. Bush, Defense Secretary Cheney and General Powell plan the ground war. for the Persian Gulf effort is surprisingly strong. Simply put, Bush has managed to uation prompted one U.S. military ana- recalled for its viewers that the carnage avoid the mistakes that turned the lyst to argue that continued bombing of coincided with the 46th anniversary of American public against the wars in Ko- military targets in Baghdad would have the Allied blitz against Dresden. Coali- rea and Vietnam. Peter Braestrup, who a substantial political impact. tion member Spain called for an end to has written extensively on Vietnam, says Still, the road ahead is not necessarily the U.S. bombing of Iraqi cities. that, unlike Lyndon Johnson, Bush has easy for the Bush administration, if only The most immediate response to the built support for his gulf policy by laying because Hussein has more capacity to outcry over the bunker bombing will be out the problem clearly, declaring a set use propaganda and diplomatic weapons its effect on U.S. military policy. How, of unambiguous goals and then legiti- than he ever had to wield military weap- planners pondered, do you maintain mizing his action by obtaining the ap- ons. In fact, he scored his first and, per- public support while fighting an enemy proval of both the United Nations and haps, only "victory" of the war last week that is increasingly placing military Congress. As Braestrup and others point when two laser-guided bombs dropped equipment in civilian areas? The answer out, Bush has also been luckier than by an F-117A Stealth fighter smashed was to avoid the possibility of a propa- Johnson in his choice of enemies. Sad- through the roof of a bunker in Baghdad ganda loss by keeping targets off the list dam Hussein is no Ho Chi Minh. and killed as many as 300, many of them if there was any threat of civilian casual- As decisive as any other factor in civilians. The fearsome televised images ty a decision made easier because of building public support for the war- of burned children and charred remains the destruction already visited on Iraq's and by far the biggest surprise has loosed a barrage of questions: If Ameri- military. Sources say fears about civilian been the domination of the media by the cans and their bombs were so "smart," casualties have prompted target plan- Bush administration. Until now, the how could this slaughter of innocents ners to rule out hitting two bridges over President has treated public relations as have happened? the Tigris River that lead out of Bagh- a subject that decent people don't talk American briefers scrambled to make dad to Kuwait, even though they carry about. After chafing for eight years 28 U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991 Are you making the most of your time? Companies who have risen above Every aspect of an organization is Because making better use of time can their competitors share a common analyzed. Work flow. Product delivery. do more than streamline operations. advantage: they've improved speed Market dynamics. Then information It can make them stand out in their field. and efficiency. And gotten increased technology is used to compress each benefit from information technology. stage to its minimum time. 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Bush applied that same model They are especially nervous about the during the Panama invasion in late 1989, with Iraqi Foreign Minister war's effect on the Soviet Union's own Tariq Aziz, Soviet Presi- and it was put into effect in the gulf. restive Islamic population. Both the With much of the media especially dent Mikhail Gorbachev not only can military and Communist Party hard- -pinned down, the only threat to move Moscow back to center stage in liners also are upset by the big West- the gulf crisis he also has a chance to support for the war comes from an ex- ern military presence in the gulf and demonstrate to Soviet hard-liners, tended conflict with large numbers of the end of Soviet support for Iraq, a U.S. casualties. The first weeks of a particularly in the military, that the longtime ally and arms client. Soviet Union has its own Mideast ground war will thus be crucial to contin- The Bush administration says the ued support at home, and there is good policy and is not just dancing to Soviet Union has observed the U.N. Washington's tune. reason to hope casualties won't be high. embargo against Iraq, but In an apparent effort to Overseas, Bush is playing on trickier there is a dispute within terrain as he seeks to hold the interna- carve out a larger role for the U.S. intelligence tional coalition together. According to themselves in the gulf cri- community over the Sovi- sis and its resolution, So- an administration official, the turning et role in Iraq's war ef- viet officials have bolted fort. U.S. sources familiar point in securing world support came last November when the United Na- from the diplomatic side- with intelligence reports lines to meet with Iranian tions authorized the use of force. The say photographs show British are even more fervent than Foreign Minister Ali Ak- Soviet surface-to-air mis- Americans and now accord their new bar Velayati, representa- siles being loaded on So- leader, John Major, the highest public tives of the European viet planes, both in the Community and even Soviet Union and in some support of any prime minister since Saddam Hussein himself. Winston Churchill in World War II. Eastern European coun- Says a senior administra- Primakov. Got the Support for the North Atlantic Treaty tries, and being delivered tion official: "There must Organization and for a continued U.S. Soviet ball rolling to Iraq just before the war inevitably be some sense broke out. The sources military presence in Europe has also in the Soviet Union to jumped in several nations. say other planes made Still, the most critical hearts and stick a hand up and say, numerous trips to Iraq on 'Hey, we count, too.' minds are probably in the Middle East, the eve of war, often and it is there that Hussein is targeting Although the Soviet straddling the Turkish- Union insists it stands by Iranian border. Some ad- his propaganda. Yet Bush aides say that United Nations demands ministration officials also despite the bombing in Baghdad, Hus- for a total, unconditional sein is losing support in Egypt, which express concern over the Iraqi withdrawal from accounts for a quarter of all Arabs, and continued presence in Kuwait, Moscow's initial in Saudi Arabia, which holds many of Iraq of Soviet advisers embrace of Saddam Hus- the Arab riches. Polls in several coun- who are experts on U.S. tries show that while the Arab man on sein's heavily conditioned weapons. Both Soviet peace proposal as "posi- Aziz. A Moscow the street is leery of the massive West- and U.S. officials strongly tive" fueled fears that ern military presence in the region, he forum for Iraq deny such allegations, al- is also anti-Saddam Hussein. Four Gorbachev, under pres- though a senior U.S. offi- sure from hard-line critics in the mili- weeks into the war, U.S. officials be- cial concedes that "renegade offi- lieve Hussein's base of support is no tary and the Communist Party, is tilt- cers" could be violating sanctions ing toward Iraq. The military has been larger than when the conflict started: without Moscow's knowledge. Palestinians, Jordan, Yemen and the unhappy with the Kremlin's gulf poli- Senior U.S. officials remain confi- countries of the Maghreb. cy from the outset and is particularly dent that the Soviet government is While some U.S. military analysts angered by what it considers a long list "playing by the rules." Indeed, one of foreign-policy "mistakes" by for- worry that Hussein can win by losing, senior State Department official says the prevailing view among Bush's aides mer Foreign Minister Eduard Shevar- Gorbachev adviser Yevgeny Prima- dnadze during the course of his close is that the danger of that is manageable. kov's trip to Baghdad last week "was They have always thought that in the relationship with Washington. meant to make [Hussein] face up to end, Arabs would give greatest respect Soviet military officials are particu- reality." If true, the meeting in Mos- to the military victor-not the man who larly anxious that Gorbachev try to COW will test both the Iraqis' grip on brought humiliation and destruction resolve the gulf conflict before the reality and the Soviets' intentions. upon his country. start of a ground war. They openly gripe about the prospect of a huge war BY DOUGLAS STANGLIN WITH JEFF BY DAVID GERGEN AND HARRISON RAINIE with unpredictable consequences TRIMBLE IN MOSCOW AND LOUISE LIEF only 200 miles from the Soviet border. AND KENNETH T. WALSH WITH BRUCE B. AUSTER, LOUISE LIEF, BRIAN DUFFY AND KENNETH T. WALSH U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991 PHOTOS: (TOP) BORIS YURCHENKO AP; (BOTTOM) PASCAL GEORGE AFP 29 THE GULF WAR A. NOGUES SYGMA What help for the poor? Egyptian refugees at a camp in Jordan Swords into plowshares Why winning the peace could make winning the war look relatively easy Who will rebuild? A Baghdad street allegedly Although the United date and undermine his neighbors and en its own military or to rely too heavily States and its allies are to cling to his claim to be leading an on other Arab troops. That means the systematically destroy- Arab campaign against Israel and the gulf states will continue to rely on Ameri- ing the military ma- West. He would continue to act as a ca for their defense. Saudi officials say chine that made Sad- lightning rod for Palestinian discontent, U.S. troops will have to leave once the dam Hussein the most endangering any progress in the Arab- war ends. But privately they expect a DESERT dangerous neighbor in Israeli conflict. multinational force, composed mainly of STORM a very tough neighbor- But his invasion of Kuwait already may Muslim forces but with some American hood, forging a lasting have produced the opposite of what Hus- troops, to remain behind, probably in peace in the volatile Middle East may sein intended: Instead of purging the gulf Kuwait, to help stabilize the region. The prove to be harder than crushing the of American influence, the war may be Saudis also expect a larger contingent of Iraqi Army. giving the United States a bigger political U.S. ships and planes to stay in the gulf Administration officials have just and military role in the re- LE SEGRETAIN SIPA permanently. With Iran started thinking about how to capitalize gion. Washington's re- and Iraq still licking their on victory over Iraq in a way that will sponse to Iraq's aggression war wounds and Syria no help solve other Mideast issues. Secre- has reassured some ner- longer able to count on tary of State James Baker already has vous Arab states that de- massive Soviet support, outlined five postwar goals: new gulf se- spite its misadventures in such preparations should curity arrangements, regional arms con- Iran and Lebanon, Ameri- be an adequate deterrent trol, a Middle East bank for reconstruc- ca is a reliable partner. for the time being. tion and development, tackling the "There will be a tendency Some Saudis are suspi- Arab-Israeli dispute and an energy poli- to look to us," says a senior cious that their neighbors cy to reduce U.S. oil imports. State Department official, "would consider such an Much depends on exactly how the war "to shape regional security arrangement merely a ends, however, and especially on wheth- and border arrangements. means of extracting money er it ends with Hussein still in power. A Although Baker suggest- from Saudi Arabia, money surviving Hussein would have his hands ed that there is a need for a which it does not have," as full trying to rebuild his country and his larger, more credible Saudi a senior Saudi official puts shattered military. But he could still use defense force, Saudi Ara- A new threat? Syria's it. But the Saudi royals, terrorism and assassination to intimi- bia is reluctant to strength- Assad could profit. who have an inherent inter- 30 U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991 BERNARD ESTRADE AFP suspect that instead of becom- ing a peacemaker, Assad will try to replace Saddam Hussein as the leader of the Arab rejec- tionists, both to relegitimize his minority Alawite rule at home and to burnish his image with the Arab masses. Still, the war already is changing some of the arithme- tic of Mideast diplomacy: Iraq's Scud attacks have gen- erated sympathy for Israel in the West, while the Palestine Liberation Organization's embrace of Saddam Hussein has undermined support for the PLO and its leader, Yassir Arafat. U.S. officials are hop- ing that after the war, some Arab coalition states will sig- nal a willingness to work with Israel as the best hope for de- livering something tangible to the Palestinians. Saudi officials say privately, however, that they expect the United States to make the first move by pressuring Israel into making concessions to the Palestinians, but few if any Israelis are in the mood to offer territorial concessions to the Palestinians, who cheered Iraq's Scud attacks, in ex- damaged by allied air attacks. Postwar reconstruction in Iraq will cost billions. change for peace agreements. Although both U.S. and Is- est in keeping their own armed forces struction effort and in having a say in the raeli officials believe the balance of pow- weak, would fer a multinational force postwar security order will be an incen- er in the Palestinian movement will shift to a bigger Saudi Army. To head off tive to tolerate a low-key American air from the PLO to the West Bank and possible coups, the Saudis have kept and naval presence in the gulf. But the Gaza, Israeli-Palestinian relations have their military small and have divided it United States remains the official Satan become so embittered during this con- into six branches. Soon after the Iraqi of Iran's Islamic revolution, and Iranian flict that it is difficult to see how negotia- invasion, King Fahd announced plans to officials adamantly oppose any Ameri- tions would proceed. increase the size of the military from can or even non-gulf Muslim participa- At the same time, the war has con- 75,000 to 200,000, but he has done noth- tion in a gulf security force. U.S. officials vinced many Israelis that they need to ing about it since and is unlikely to im- say they are ready to talk to an "authori- deal first with the Arab nations that pose pose a draft. "The al-Saud are not tative" Iranian representative, but they the greatest threat, not with the Palestin- dumb," says a Western diplomat in Saudi say that the six U.S. hostages in Lebanon ians, and U.S. officials acknowledge that Arabia. "Who overthrew the Hashemites and Iranian support for terrorism still the destruction of Iraq's missiles and nu- in Iraq? The Army. They know where the block any real improvement in relations. clear-, chemical-and biological-weapons threat comes from." High hopes. Some observers hope that facilities won't end the threat these But there are other threats. Saudi-Ira- Syria's participation in the anti-Iraq co- weapons pose in the Mideast. In theory, nian relations remain troubled, and Iran, alition, coupled with the Soviet retrench- all sides have an interest in negotiating now playing host to more than 130 Iraqi ment, will prompt Syrian President Ha- arms control and other security arrange- warplanes and floating its own peace fez Assad to rethink his confrontation ments that could lower tension and end plans, is a wild card in the effort to build with Israel. Secretary of State Baker, the region's costly arms races. But it is a new regional order in the gulf. Baker brainstorming with Israel's ambassador questionable whether either side trusts has praised Iran's conduct in the war and to Washington, Zalman Shoval, asked if the other enough to make such deals. acknowledged the need to include it in a Israel would consider demilitarizing the Arabs argue that they need chemical regional security structure, but Iran's Golan Heights, which Israel captured weapons because Israel has nuclear ones, Shiite fundamentalist revolution re- from Syria in 1967 and annexed in 1981. but Israel is unlikely to trade its unde- mains an inspiration to anti-Western But Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Sha- clared nuclear deterrent for Arab prom- radicals, and Iranian interests run mir has assured Jewish settlers in the ises not to field chemical weapons. counter to those of America and the gulf Golan that he would reject any changes It is not even clear whether the West states. U.S. officials hope Iran's interest in the strategic territory's status, and can limit the spread of technological ad- in getting Western help for its recon- U.S., Israeli and European officials all vances that could soon make much more U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991 31 THE GULF WAR Says a defense official: "That could mean computers have legitimate business and a millionfold increase in military effec- scientific applications. As Henry So- dangerous weapons available. The inac- tiveness against a given target." kolski, the Pentagon's expert on nonpro- curate Scud can land several kilometers While export controls on munitions liferation policy, told Congress recently: from where it is aimed, but Defense De- are fairly simple to enforce, the technol- "The more uses a technology has, the partment officials worry that within 10 ogy that improves missile-guidance sys- more rapidly it is likely to spread." years, the use of navigational systems like tems has numerous commercial applica- The greatest threats to the new Mid- U.S. Navstar Global Positioning System tions. Equipment used to produce east order the Bush administration en- satellites could make easily affordable chemical weapons also can be used to visions may be domestic, not interna- missiles accurate to within a few meters. make pharmaceuticals, and high-speed tional, however. Already, the war has OUTWITTING HUSSEIN Likud Party hopes to translate into Top Israeli officials also realize that electoral gains. retaliation could transform the gulf Why Israel Public opinion. Despite Hussein's war into an Arab-Israeli conflict. Dur- terror attacks on Israeli cities, the Is- ing one cabinet meeting, Levy pound- remains raeli public has backed the no-retalia- ed his fist on the table and told mili- tion policy by 70 percent and more. tary advisers, "Only when you give me Better relations. Restraint now will answers to A, B, C, D, then will I be cautious give Israel a "place at the table" when ready to act. I want to know how the the fighting ends, says a senior Israeli Jordanians will react, how the Syrians official. The Scud attacks, and Israel's will react, how the U.S. will respond S o far, one of the gulf war's surprises refusal to retaliate for them, have im- and whether we can do this without is that Israel is helping to defeat proved Israel's image with the Ameri- them. Without these assurances, I Saddam Hussein without firing a shot. can public, the Congress and the Bush cannot consent." In fact, the Iraqi leader's campaign to administration. In the first week of the Israel remains uncomfortable de- split the Arab coalition aligned against crisis, President Bush phoned Shamir parting from its traditional policy of him is being frustrated P.GAZ-AFP precisely because Israel has not retaliated for Iraq's Scud missile at- tacks, most of them in ci- vilian areas. And it is not American pressure that has stayed Israel's hand; Israel has held itself back. Prime Minister Yitz- hak Shamir and his se- nior aides have steered a cautious course through- out the crisis- never even bringing a retalia- tion plan to the cabinet for a vote. Housing Min- ister Ariel Sharon, the ar- chitect of the Israeli inva- sion of Lebanon in 1982 and an advocate of a mili- tary response now, has 6353743 been outmaneuvered. Israel has several rea- sons for restraint: Cautious prime minister. Forgive and forget? Palestinians cheered when Iraq's Scud missiles struck Tel Aviv. The 75-year-old Shamir has made the big decisions by himself five times-more than the two had swift and effective retribution. De- with advice from his defense minister spoken in the last two years-and fense Minister Arens told Secretary and protégé, Moshe Arens, and, to a Deputy Secretary of State Lawrence of Defense Dick Cheney last week lesser degree, Foreign Minister Da- Eagleburger, dispatched to urge re- that Israel's decision to turn the other vid Levy. A former Mossad agent, straint, also held out the promise that cheek is apt to change if Iraq launch- Shamir is cool under pressure, and the chilly relationship between Shamir es a Scud with a chemical warhead or his sense of sure-footedness, com- and Bush could be "turned around." if a missile attack causes many fatali- bined with Israeli anger at Palestin- Self-interest. Israeli officials do not ties. But in the meantime, Israel is sit- ians for supporting Saddam Hussein, want to jeopardize the ongoing de- ting tight-and winning. has meant a new surge in the pre- struction of the Iraqi war machine- mier's domestic popularity, which his Israel's most frightening enemy. BY DAVID MAKOVSKY IN ISRAEL 32 U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991 ©1991 Peugeot Motors of America *Based on R.L. Polk & Co. owner retention study of 'MY 1984-1986. B e O n O b O u S PEUGEOT 1991 405 models from $15,490 to $21,990. MSRP. Excludes tax, title, options, registration and destination charges. Call 1-800-447-4700. In Canada, 1-416-566-1900. After more than a century of building fine automobiles, Peugeot creates cars so well-conceived that some of the best qualities of the car may not be apparent at a glance. But those willing to take the time to look more closely will find themselves richly rewarded. They'll discover a distinctive European automobile whose rare combination of intelligent engineering. legendary driving comfort and enduring style has won the acclaim of automotive enthusiasts the world over. All of which only begins to explain why people who own Peugeots keep them longer than most import cars on the road.* Evidently, once you've looked beyond the obvious, it is difficult to see anything less. AFP A DANGEROUS GAME Can the king walk the tightrope? K ing Hussein watchers say that when the Jordanian monarch is disturbed by events around him, he of- ten responds by growing a beard. His latest hirsute statement began to sprout with the gulf crisis. Though he has long been consid- ered one of the West's most steady allies in the Arab world, he has all but abandoned his declared policy of neu- trality. Jordan's state-controlled me- dia are echoing Baghdad's propagan- da machine; there are continuing reports of Jordanian-Iraqi military co- Uneasy crown. Jordan's King Hussein has tilted toward Iraq in the crisis. operation, and in a recent speech Hus- sein fell just short of calling his people suicidal and his subjects' impassioned Can Hussein survive the storm? to arms. support for Saddam Hussein. The Administration officials say the alter- Losing his grip? Since then, the king king's pro-Iraq tilt has made him more natives to the king are "unattractive." has beaten a miniretreat, sanctimo- popular than ever, but his supporters The king himself believes that notion niously claiming that all he really say that failure to continue playing to will help preserve his throne. Some wants is to "give peace a chance." But the crowd could send his people racing palace insiders say he also hopes to it remains to be seen whether he is still up the hill to tear down his palace. turn defeat for Iraq into victory for in control of his country, or whether he In Israel, the Shamir government himself, and that when it's all over the has abdicated ultimate decision mak- has made it clear that the entry of Iraqi credibility his pro-Baghdad stance has ing to his Army or to the Muslim fun- troops into Jordan would be a casus won him among Palestin ns will en- damentalists and Palestinian radicals belli. Messengers from George Bush able him to re-emerge as their inter- in Jordan's streets. also warn that if the king wants contin- locutor and as a prime player in any Hussein's defenders insist that he is ued U.S. economic aid, he'd better postwar Israeli-Arab settl caught between his desire to keep Jor- "turn down the volume" and not push dan out of a war he knows would be his kingdom deeper into Iraqi arms. BY RICHARD Z. CHESNOFF JORDAN had a great political impact on Saudi The Saudis have spent or pledged $48 main at home, as a means of defusing Arabia. "We're only at the beginning of billion since August 2 for the allied war social tensions heightened by the war: understanding the repercussions," says effort and support for friendly coun- Despite the deficit, in mid-January a senior U.S. official. "Now that the tries. Because of the war, they will run a King Fahd forgave two months of pay- country has been attacked, a new vari- deficit for the first quarter of 1991 of ments on all government-financed able will affect Saudi citizens' relations about $17 billion to $18 billion - $2 bil- home mortgages. Some Saudi money to their government." lion more than they ran for all of 1990 also is likely to go toward rebuilding The Saudi government's lopsided dis- and $5 billion more than their total gov- Iraq, as a good-will gesture and a way to tribution of gas masks and its failure to ernment reserves. Last week they began influence a post-Hussein government. inform its own people about Scud missile borrowing from international banks to The Bush administration's best hope attacks have intensified the security de- meet their obligations. If, as many oil for winning the peace may be its plan to bate in the desert kingdom. The Ameri- analysts anticipate, oil prices drop fur- concentrate on small steps to establish can presence has increased tensions be- ther at the end of the war, Saudi fi- regional risk-reduction centers to lower tween Saudi liberals, who want to nances will be squeezed even more. the risks of accidental war, to work out modernize their society, and fundamen- Although Secretary Baker has pro- water-sharing agreements, to coordinate talists, who oppose any change. posed the creation of a regional devel- air and naval activities and to stem the The Saudi monarchy, which for de- opment bank and the drain on the Sau- flow of weaponry to the region. In the cades has bought political support by di treasury will diminish after the war, Middle East, even such modest progress lavishing social benefits on its comfort- the Saudis have not renewed earlier would be revolutionary. able but politically neutered popula- promises to finance the region's have- tion, is also finding that the war is be- nots, many of whom have turned BY LOUISE LIEF AND BRUCE B. AUSTER WITH ginning to strain the financial resources against the Saudis and Kuwaitis during CARLA ANNE ROBBINS IN SAUDI ARABIA, DAVID MAKOVSKY IN the kingdom always took for granted. the crisis. Saudi charity is likely to re- ISRAEL AND RICHARD Z. CHESNOFF IN JORDAN 34 U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991 Who Else Can Fill These Shoes! Only your Public Television station consistently brings you quality programs that inspire, entertain and inform. Programs like THE CIVIL WAR, SESAME STREET and NOVA. It's television you can trust. 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Helping people share information — wherever they may be. To learn more about NEC's quality products, call 1-800-338-9549. NEC Quality That Proves Itself. Communications Computers Electron Devices Home Electronics THE GULF WAR The run and shoot offense U.S. doctrine calls for speed, surprise and striking deep The public debate over when, or even wheth- er, to begin a ground war has focused largely on the daunting Iraqi defenses in Kuwait: barbed wire, ditches and minefields backed up by massed, chemical-capable artillery that could loose a withering fire on any allied DESERT troops attempting to breach these "killing STORM zones." In the clearest measure yet of the success of the "battlefield preparation" cam- paign, allied forces announced last week that air attacks had destroyed at least 1,300 tanks and 1,100 artillery pieces, about one third of the total that Iraq had in and around Kuwait when the war began. Some senior military officials suggested that the Iraqi Army may be nearing the point where it ceases to function as a coherent force. Others cautioned that Iraqi defensive positions could still pose a formidable obstacle. But the choice between continuing the air war and launch- ing what is invariably termed a "bloody" ground campaign is misleading in two important respects. First, the U.S. Army's modern war-fighting doctrine, known as AirLand Battle, suggests that U.S. commanders may have in mind a very different sort of ground war - one that relies on speed, surprise and deep strikes into the enemy's rear to sur- round and cut off the enemy force, while avoiding a head-on confrontation. The AirLand Battle doctrine calls for maneu- vering around enemy strengths and for using artillery, rockets and air support to keep any approaching enemy units at arm's length. U.S. Army Field Manual 90-3, "Operations in Desert Conditions," states it this way: "An attacking force capable of airmobile or extended ground operations can usually find a way over or around an obstacle. The defending force can then be bypassed, contained, or taken from the rear." The object is to minimize the inevitably chaotic, close-in fighting that claims the greatest number of lives on the battle- field. As applied to Kuwait, it would satisfy the classic injunc- tion to commanders to defeat not their enemy but their ene- my's plan Saddam Hussein's plan being to engage the allied forces in a drawn-out, World War I-style war of attrition. Second, as envisioned by the commanders in the gulf, a fast, overwhelming ground thrust would be intended not to replace the air campaign, but to make an intensified air war more effective by forcing the enemy to move out of sheltered posi- tions, exposing him to attack and straining his already Mobility. Each armored division is accompanied by close 38 U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY supply trucks to support its high-speed operations, which can consume more than 550,000 gallons of fuel per day. U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991 39 THE GULF WAR would be expected to look ahead 72 hours on the battlefield. Air strikes, per- crippled supply lines. "There may be a haps supplemented by attacks with the point when you send your ground ground-launched Army Tactical Missile forces in and you can do the job quicker System, which delivers a cluster-bomb with less loss of life on both sides," says warhead to a range of about 100 miles, Lt. Gen. Charles Horner, commander could be directed against enemy troops of the allied air forces in the gulf. and tanks that began moving to threaten AirLand Battle was developed in the an allied spearhead. "Deep operations late 1970s to replace earlier U.S. doctrine shape the battlefield for the ground that was geared toward a defensive war campaign," says an Army official. of attrition to hold off a Soviet attack on Using the data provided by the two Western Europe. The new doctrine, JSTARS aircraft in the gulf, which can which was officially adopted in 1982, em- see about 125 miles into the enemy's rear, phasizes instead the advantages of taking as well as more conventional sources of the offensive using rapid maneuvers to intelligence, commanders at the division defeat an enemy with superior forces. level and below could carry on their own The U.S. Army has long placed great "deep battle" operations against threats stock on speed, deception and maneu- closer in while the corps commander is ver. But putting those principles into concentrating on the more distant practice has been another matter. As threats. Self-propelled artillery-g General Patton's tanks raced across mounted on tracked, armored vehicles- France toward the Rhine, they fre- are designed to keep up with the tanks so quently outran their supply lines. A that even in high-speed operations the modern armored force depends on a lo- armored units never outrun artillery cov- gistics train that makes Patton's look er, which is needed to force enemy anti- small. In 24 hours, one heavy division tank infantry gunners to stay under cov- can consume 5,000 tons of ammunition, er. The potent Multiple Launch Rocket 550,000 gallons of fuel, 300,000 gallons System, with a range of more than 20 of water and 80,000 meals. miles, is likewise carried on a tracked In 1973, Israeli tanks likewise outma- vehicle. Such extended-range weapons neuvered Arab forces but, lacking ade- create a moving screen ahead of the at- quate artillery cover, found themselves tacking force, minimizing the need to sitting ducks for Egyptian infantry fight close-in battles. armed with antitank missiles. Hitting faster. Moreover, some opera- But new technologies-coupled with tional improvements have shortened the allies' total air supremacy - at last the time lag between spotting a target may allow commanders to translate the and hitting it. In F-16 squadrons, the theory into practice. Effective air cover forward air controllers, whose job it is allows the thousands of vulnerable sup- to spot enemy positions and call in air ply trucks that are needed to keep a attacks, have begun flying in F-16s in- rapidly moving tank force running to stead of slower A-10s. These "fast perform their vital task. FACs" reportedly have greatly in- Most important are reconnaissance creased the effectiveness of strikes systems that allow ground commanders against Iraqi troop positions in Kuwait. to monitor enemy troop movements so Army Rangers, units such as the 82nd that attacking forces can either avoid Airborne and 101st Air Assault Divisions Air mobility. Helicopter-borne troops would be them or engage them with long-range and special-operations units also can op- HANS HALBERSTADT ARMS COMMUNICATIONS weapons. While these electronic means erate in the enemy's rear. On the first day can't give a total picture of the battle- of the war, for example, Apache attack field, they promise to revolutionize op- helicopters conducted special operations erations. "For the first time in the his- against a Republican Guard command tory of warfare, an army won't have to center in northwest Kuwait. Air-assault use maneuver units for surveillance," units, which use helicopters to leapfrog says a retired Army general. "This time enemy positions, might be especially use- virtually all the units will be available to ful to trap an enemy force. "They become deliver a blow to the enemy." the anvil and the main attacking force is Commanders down to battalion level the hammer," says an Army official. will be getting near-real-time pictures of Deep strikes can be decisive even if the ground ahead from E-8A JSTARS they do not completely destroy enemy radar planes and other intelligence- forces. They can prevent reinforcements gathering systems. In support of the from massing and delay them from arriv- corps-size operation (a corps contains ing on the battlefield, or simply SOW three or more divisions, a total of more enough chaos that enemy commanders than 1,000 tanks and 50,000 men) that no longer can control their forces effec- U.S. forces in the gulf have been train- tively. That is why attacks on the Repub- ing for, corps-level field commanders lican Guard divisions in northern Ku- Maneuver war. Night-vision gear allows U.S. 40 U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991 used to strike deep into the enemy's rear, disrupting reinforcements and cutting off lines of retreat. HANS HALBERSTADT - ARMS COMMUNICATIONS SYM BRT THE GULF WAR mines may be needed to tie down the enemy. Allied forces have at their dis- wait and nearby Iraq have concentrated posal a variety of mines that can be air- on more than just tanks, says one Penta- dropped to create "instant" minefields. gon official: "Aircraft are destroying his The Air Force's 1,000-pound Gator equipment but also his ability to com- bomb can SOW 72 antitank and 22 anti- mand his forces, his roads and transports personnel mines over a 200-by-300-foot and his ability to resupply his troops. All area when dropped at low altitude. Simi- this makes it impossible for the enemy to lar mines can be delivered by UH-60 execute his battle plan. He won't be able Black Hawk helicopters, 155-mm artil- to join the battle with the strength he'd lery shells and trucks. like or at the time he'd like." Deceiving the enemy. Another part of Sheer speed has a shock value all its the countermobility battle is the use of own. The M-1A1 tank can travel as fast decoys and feints to tie down the enemy as 40 mph, as can much of the support forces. "We're going to seem to be com- equipment of an armored division. That ing from all directions," says one offi- pace could make it difficult for the Ira- cial. This has the effect of isolating ene- qis to keep up with allied movements my units: "A commander may react and could help American troops outrun brilliantly to what he sees in front of conventional or chemical artillery bar- him, but he won't see the big picture," rages. Army officials concede that no says an Army official. The Iraqis lack U.S. commander would want to duke it the allies' air and satellite reconnais- out with Iraq's plentiful artillery, some sance systems, and the destruction of of which has longer range and better ac- their communications network only in- curacy. But greater maneuverability creases this isolation. One Saudi officer Feints. Allied forces firing all along the front could allow him to keep his tanks and who has interviewed Iraqi defectors says troops out of range while allied air pow- the Iraqis believed they were cut off U.S. operations manuals call for ex- er knocks out the enemy artillery. from communications with the rear. At tensive use of smoke-smoke genera- Complementing the speed and mobil- the unit level, the Iraqis have "an ex- tors and special mortar and artillery ity of its own forces, the U.S. Army's traordinary amount of push-to-talk ra- ammunition are deployed throughout doctrine calls for waging a counter- dios, and you're not going to kill all of U.S. forces-to mask ground opera- mobility battle against the enemy to deny those," says one military source. But, he tions in desert conditions. A jeep tow- him those same advantages. The absence added, with the damage done to date, ing chains can whip up enough dust to of natural obstacles in most desert ter- "it would be very difficult [for the Iraqi simulate the movement of a large con- rain means that the extensive use of Army] to correlate a corps-level attack.' voy, an especially effective technique in LESSONS OF THE MASTERS Ulysses S. Grant and William T. Sher- man and the Confederacy's Lee and Civil War tactics could win Stonewall Jackson among their teach- ers. Some of the Civil War's enduring 'the mother of battles' concepts seem too simple-like Con- federate Gen. Nathan Bedford For- rest's desire to "git thur fustest with the C ivil War historian Gabor Boritt day's Western world would attempt mostest"-yet they revolutionized war- paused during a Gettysburg battle- something SO utterly idiotic." fare that for centuries had stressed set- field tour last week to admire a yellow On the other hand, some of the tac- piece battles between armies in place. ribbon tied to a Confederate statue that tics both sides used in the Civil War Some scholars expect Schwarzkopf marks the spot where Pickett's Charge were utterly brilliant, and some may be to follow one of Stonewall Jackson's began. "I like the ribbon," Boritt said, as applicable today in the Mideast as edicts: "Never fight against heavy odds "but you can bet that General Schwarz- they were nearly 130 years ago in a divid- if by any possible maneuvering you can kopf won't try any Pickett's Charge." ed America. For decades, generals have hurl your whole force on only a part, Saddam Hussein may be hoping the al- looked to the nation's first modern war and that the weakest part of your ene- lied commander launches the kind of for lessons, and counted the Union's my, and crush it." Thus Jackson, with attack that Robert E. Lee or- USN&WR USN&WR AP barely 17,000 men, whipped dered at Gettysburg - a fron- 60,000 Yankees in a series of tal assault by Gen. George quick marches and smart bat- Pickett's division against the tles in the Shenandoah Val- center of a dug-in Union line. ley of Virginia. His surprise The Ayatollah Khomeini sent attack at Chancellorsville - waves of teenagers to be on the Union rear - was slaughtered by Hussein's en- equally successful. trenched defenders during Schwarzkopf recently list- the Iran-Iraq War. But, ob- ed his three favorite generals served Boritt, "no one in to- Grant Sherman Jackson as Grant, Sherman and the 42 U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991 JOE DeVERA-AP one point in an enemy's defenses can Continuing the battle around the clock move perhaps 15 miles laterally at night "does not allow the other side time to and strike somewhere else or not resupply," says Nicholas Diakides, presi- strike at all. Likewise, say officials, a dent of Advanced Concepts Analysis and Marine amphibious unit stationed 20 for many years a leading scientist in the miles offshore can make it appear that Army's night-vision program. "There is it is about to strike anywhere along continuous pressure on the other side, SO some 150 miles of beach. they have difficulty continuing the fight." Night-vision equipment, which ex- Accurate navigation, which has been a tends the threat around the clock, can recurring problem in the featureless des- further pin down the enemy. Every U.S. ert, also is essential for high-speed opera- vehicle and every major weapons sys- tions. More than 10,000 Global Position- tem, down to antitank missiles and .50- ing System receivers ordered by the caliber machine guns, is equipped with Pentagon since August to make up for an night sights. Every squad-which con- initial shortage may have largely solved sists of four to 10 men- has several this problem. The GPS units, which pick night-vision goggles and rifle sights, as up signals from navigation satellites, can well. These small, portable systems work calculate their location on earth to within by converting the small amounts of light 75 feet. Being able to know one's precise from the stars and the moon into an location reduces the risks of friendly-fire electrical signal, which then is amplified accidents and allows forward air control- and reconverted to light. The resulting lers and artillery observers to call in green-hued image is at least 10 times strikes with great accuracy. better than the naked eye can see. The Army officials acknowledge that Air- will conceal the real attack. heavier and more expensive infrared sys- Land Battle has never been tested in tems used on the F-117 Stealth fighter, what they call a "high intensity environ- open desert expanses where dust clouds the M-1 tank and the Apache helicopter ment." The invasion of Kuwait will be can be seen 20 miles away. Allied forces produce a sharper, black and white im- that test-unless the devastation visited already may be using false radio traffic age by detecting the invisible heat waves from the air turns the invasion into a to confuse the Iraqis, who, according to given off by objects. The hottest parts of mopping-up operation as the Iraqi U.S. sources, have a sophisticated net- the picture-such as the warm area Army collapses. work of radio-listening equipment. around a tank's engine - show up as the The ability to move quickly improves brightest. If the tank is moving, the fric- BY STEPHEN BUDIANSKY WITH PETER CARY the ability to deceive the enemy. Tanks tion in the treads makes them hot and IN SAUDI ARABIA, BRUCE B. AUSTER that might appear to be ready to breach thus very visible, too. AND WILLIAM J. COOK JEFF GLICK USN&WR Korean War's Creighton Abrams. from Chapter 8 of the "This confirms my impression that The Vicksburg gambit Army's Field Manual Schwarzkopf is a very smart man," says Grant took fortified Vicksburg by going around it No. 100-5, required Princeton's James McPherson, author River reading for officers of "The Battle Cry of Freedom," a Pu- MISSISSIPPI from Colin Powell on litzer Prize-winning history of the Civil RAILROAD down. Grant, the man- War. "Lee was brilliant tactically, but Bridgeport ual notes, "understood Grant and Sherman had a better grasp the essence of offensive Vicksburg of the strategic implications of the Champion's Jackson operations" to strike a Supply technological changes that had oc- Hill route to defender hard at an un- curred in the years between Napoleon Mississippi Vicksburg River expected place and and the Civil War-railroads, the tele- Raymond time. Grant's Vicksburg graph, entrenchments, weapons with PALICIO operation is described greater firepower and accuracy." Sher- man is considered an exemplar of "the GRANT Pearl River as a model campaign. SCALE OF MILES Instead of attacking the indirect approach" - attacking the ene- 0 12.5 25 Port Gibson Confederate Gibraltar my's communications and his will to head on, Grant went fight, going around his flank and forc- around it with a sur- ing him out. "That," says McPherson, the Iraqis are now, and Grant stretched prise crossing of the Mississippi River "is very much the strategy the Ameri- him out and wore him down by con- well to the south of the fortified city. cans are following and, I think, will fol- stantly moving the superior Union He covered 200 miles in 19 days and low in the Persian Gulf." force around the Confederate right left the cutoff Rebel defenders starving Grant at Petersburg. The current ar- flank. "Grant, of course, didn't have in their trenches. "The same speed, ray of ground forces in the Mideast re- tanks and planes and armored person- surprise, maneuver and decisive ac- minds McPherson of the confrontation nel carriers," McPherson notes, "SO it tion," the Army manual says, "will be between Grant and Lee along Virgin- was a lot more difficult to do this kind required to win battles of the future." ia's Petersburg front in the last year of of thing then than it is now." the Civil War. Lee was entrenched, as Another perspective can be gleaned BY LEWIS LORD U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991 43 WORLDGRAM SOUTH AFRICA'S UNSTOPPABLE MARCH TOWARD MULTIRACIAL RULE SOUTH AFRICA AN IRREVOCABLE COMMITMENT. White backlash is intensifying, black militants are unyielding and the political and economic differences are gaping, but South Africa's moves toward multira- cial constitutional talks and eventual black majority rule now seem irreversible. PRETORIA Nowhere has the case for inevitability been better made than at the recent 11-hour impromptu meeting between President F. W. de Klerk and African National Congress (ANC) leader Nelson Mandela. By refining what the ANC's suspension of "armed struggle" entails, by clearing the way for Pretoria's release of all political prisoners by April 30 and for the return of exiles, the two Can conservative leaders knocked down major roadblocks to a key multiparty conference on the country's political whites derail moves future. It appears certain to be held sometime this year. Equally important, the willingness of toward multiracial both de Klerk and Mandela to compromise in the face of fierce criticism at home underscored a rule? Not by the mutual commitment to the establishment of a nonracial democracy. present head count in Parliament. But The potential pitfalls are not gone, however. De Klerk's moves to remove the last pillars of official some polls show that apartheid the statutes mandating where blacks may live, restricting black ownership of land the Conservative and classifying citizens by race- are encouraging the European Community, the United States Party might come and the International Monetary Fund to consider easing economic and financial sanctions. But close to defeating white hard-liners are determined to derail the initiatives for reform. At the same time, Mandela's any referendum re- veiled threat to destabilize the country if the EC lifts sanctions without ANC approval has scared vamping the Consti- even moderate whites, the same whites who will have to approve of future constitutional change. tution. And some Meanwhile, de Klerk and his ruling National Party are working behind the scenes to reassure hard-liners could re- whites that South Africa's capitalist economic system will not be destroyed by a future multiracial sort to isolated acts government. (For more on the economic cost of dismantling apartheid, see Page 53.) of terrorism to im- pede black-white Like the whites, South African blacks are bitterly divided. The meeting between Mandela and negotiations. Zulu Chief Mangosuthu Buthelezi has eased intrablack violence in the Transvaal and Natal, but they will have to meet many times more to end the fighting, let alone forge a common front on constitutional talks. ANC hotheads opposed to any negotiations with whites will be harder for Mandela to control. But with multiracial rule the prize, Mandela seems resolved to press on. BRACING FOR THE INEVITABLE BREAKUP. Yugoslavia as it has existed since 1918 is finished. YUGOSLAVIA Either the ethnically diverse state will evolve into a loose confederation of sovereign republics or it will break up and slide into civil war. The country's leaders will hold more desperate meetings to stave off the transformation, but the only real question is whether it will be violent or peaceful. BELGRADE Step by step, Slovenia and Croatia, the most prosperous and Westernized republics as well as the most secession-minded, are making the status quo untenable. Already, both have drastically cut back on the funds transferred to the federal government and the armed forces. They have agreed on a mutual-defense pact and begun recruiting militia volunteers. Meantime, Commu- The Army already nist-led Serbia, the biggest republic, has warned that it intends to expand its borders to include is up in arms over ethnic Serbs if the country falls apart- a direct threat to Croatia, which has an 11 percent Serbi- secessionist aims of an minority. And the Serbian-dominated Army has served notice that it would use force to disarm Croatia and Slovenia. police reservists in Croatia and Slovenia and to preserve the federal concept. Some say all that has prevented mili- The plunge toward anarchy seems unavoidable unless the democratic desires of the Slovenes and tary intervention is Croats to go it alone are met. But as with Moscow and the Baltics, the Communist center is unwilling to concern among the let go. By far, the likeliest short-term scenario is a military takeover backed by the powerful Commu- Serbian-dominated nist nomenklatura. The one thing that could avert violence is an 11th-hour realization that a redefined officer corps that Yugoslavia, more loosely bound, would be to everyone's advantage. But there is little time for compro- rank-and-file con- mise. The Slovenia-Croatia timetable calls for formation of a European Community-style federation scripts from other within three months or they will declare independence. Last-minute miracles are not unknown in the republics may refuse Balkans. But today violence appears probable and a military takeover the calamitous result. to obey orders if a crackdown comes. BY GERSON YALOWITZ WITH JIM JONES IN JOHANNESBURG AND FOREIGN-BUREAU REPORTS 44 U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< CADILLAC STYLE No down payment makes Cadillac SMARTLEASE very smart indeed. Whatever Cadillac model or contract provides efficient yet impressive power, served for other pursuits. 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I The New York Times ? SPANISH "Company and marketing executives will find after 1992 that it is a handicap GERMAN SPANISH not to be fairly conversant with at least one other major European language, MEMORY and preferably two or three." The London Times SPECIAL REPORT The Medal of Honor PROFILES IN COURAGE: PART IV BETTMANN NEWSPHOTOS For many Americans, Vietnam was a fog while listening to the time of protest and recrimination, not changing sound of his heli- copter's rotors. Flying side- patriotism. Yet the conflict that raged ways and tipping his chop- along deep mountain valleys and per to blow small openings through steaming tropical jungles in the 600-foot-thick fog - produced more than its share of techniques Brady had devel- oped on earlier missions - heroes. In such places as Pleiku, Hue he made four landings in a and Ia Drang, Americans displayed hail of mortar and machine- bravery and self-sacrifice above and gun fire to rescue three doz- en wounded men. "We went beyond the call of duty. In all, 238 right over the North Viet- men received the nation's highest namese Army," Brady re- honor, the Medal of Honor, for calls. "They could hear me, but they couldn't see me. By Vietnam valor, including 151 the time they did, I was past posthumously. This fourth installment them in the fog." in U.S. News's Medal of Honor But ground fire did dam- series running in tandem with a six- age his helicopter's controls so badly that he had to bor- part TV documentary airing on 127 row another Huey for the stations - is devoted to three day's third mission: the res- Americans whose heroism transcended cue of a platoon of wound- ed Americans who had any doubts about the war itself. stumbled into a minefield. Despite constant danger that the helicopter's down- PATRICK BRADY Hero at the White House. Brady receives his medal draft would set off more ex- and a handshake from President Nixon. plosions, Brady landed in A day's work the center of the minefield 65 and 1967-68), Brady made 3,000 com- and held the chopper in place while for an angel bat evacuation flights and rescued more crewmen ran to pick up the wounded. than 5,000 wounded or trapped soldiers An exploding mine punched more than and civilians from battlefields, firebases 400 holes in his fuselage, but he man- of mercy and ambush sites. The lanky Irishman aged to get the crippled machine and from South Dakota remembers busier each of the wounded safely back to an days than Jan. 6, 1968 the date he air base. Commandeering a third heli- Even before he was award- earned the Medal of Honor-but none copter, he made two more flights before ed the Medal of Honor, more satisfying. nightfall. In one day's work, he saved 51 Maj. Patrick Henry Brady It began with a dash into enemy terri- soldiers. was a legend across Viet- tory to pull two wounded South Viet- Except for winning the Medal of nam's battle-scarred Cen- namese soldiers from a tiny landing Honor, that January 6 "was a lot like tral Highlands. No one else zone that was under small arms fire. 1968 other days," says Brady, now a major was as willing or as able Next, Brady flew to a fog-choked valley general and deputy commander of the to fly a lumbering Huey medevac heli- where two choppers already had been 6th U.S. Army at the Presidio in San copter through a curtain of machine-gun shot down trying to reach wounded Francisco. "On another day I went fire or zero-visibility fog as this onetime Americans lying only 50 yards from en- through four aircraft. And on yet an- reject from Seattle University's ROTC emy positions. Fearing more losses, the other we got 125 patients back. It just unit. By the late 1960s, "Brady mission" commander of a nearby U.S. firebase never occurred to me not to get those was a synonym for any rescue flight that initially refused to give Brady the radio guys out. I never lost a crewman or a stretched the boundaries of skill and frequency he needed to tell the trapped patient on my helicopter. That's what daring. During two Vietnam tours (1964- GIs how to "talk him down" through the I'm proudest of." U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991 45 REGAL UNDERSTANDABLY, THE DynaRide like Stylish air a a suspension. The list of W Compact features disc is equally player impressive, with Concert Sound The and comes disc with brakes an impressive and four-wheel list of independent including: totally new 1991 four-door standard Regal. features Dual ComforTemp climate control 3800 TUNED PORT INJECTION 123 3800 IMPORTS ARE GETTING NERVOUS. leather seating areas. Also available is a Buick a powerful built to 3800 further V-6 enhance engine with our tuned-port injection. for quality. Most As one measure of ranks what Buick this effort the most means, trouble-free the American dealer Super Soft importantly, Regal Sedan is J.D. Power and Associates reputation 1990 the second Initial year Quality in a SurveySM row*. The new Regal Sedan. See it at your Buick today. carline-for For more information, call 1-800-423-6787. THE NEW SYMBOL FOR QUALITY IN AMERICA. W BUICK ® GM All rights Associates 1989 and 1990 Initial Quality Let's get it reserved. together Regal buckle is a up. registered © 1991 GM trademark Corp. Surveys.SM of GM Corp. *J.D. Based Power on owner-reported and problems during the first 90 days of ownership. GARY BEIKIRCH seven more trips through artillery and against North Vietnamese and Viet mortar fire to retrieve the wounded. Cong forces swarming through the Que The dark side While dragging a Vietnamese to safety, Son Valley. For two days the platoon he was hit by an exploding rocket that made a mockery of Hanoi's claims of of glory drove shrapnel into his back and out his absolute control over the region. stomach. But he worked for hours more, Then, at 10 p.m. on June 15, the frus- finally collapsing from loss of blood. trated North Vietnamese committed For years Gary Beikirch A week later he came to in a hospital. several hundred troops to wiping out had looked for something "Here I was, the epitome of ego and Howard's lonely unit. During the night, he couldn't even identify. self-sufficiency, a Green Beret, and I grenade fragments wounded him so Raised by aunts and uncles was helpless, lying in a bed with tubes badly that he couldn't move his legs. after his parents were di- running out of me," Beikirch recalls. It Refusing an injection of pain-killing vorced, he had moved 33 was the start of what he now calls a pil- morphine, he pulled himself from fox- 1970 times and attended 11 grimage that included prayer, transcen- hole to foxhole, repositioning his men, schools by the time he was 15. Shy and dental meditation, feelings of guilt comforting the wounded, collecting am- sensitive, he drifted through high school about people he killed in Vietnam, be- munition from the dead and radioing and into college. There, he read "The ing spit on by antiwar activists, enrolling for air and artillery strikes within 50 Green Berets" and was so impressed in Bible school and living as a recluse in feet of his platoon. that he enlisted in the Army's elite Spe- the New Hampshire woods. When his men ran out of hand gre- cial Forces. Soon, as a Green Beret Receiving the Medal of Honor in the nades, Howard told them to lob rocks U.S.ARMY fall of 1973 was a moment of pride and AP trauma. Beikirch cut his shoulder- length hair so he could wear his uni- form. But when Richard Nixon hung 319 the medal around his neck, "all the pain and hurt came back, along with a lot of guilt." Beikirch returned to a seminary to prepare to go to Vietnam as a mis- sionary, a goal that evaporated with Ha- noi's 1975 victory. Now a grade school counselor in Rochester, N.Y., Beikirch says that, be- cause of Vietnam, he knows what val- ues he would die for kill for. For him, the core of those values was ex- pressed on a sign he saw a generation ago in a Special Forces camp: "To real- ly live, you must almost die. To those who fight for it, life has a meaning that the protected will never know." Green Beret. A new sense of values JIMMIE HOWARD Survivor. The sergeant laughed at death. medic in a remote Montagnard village One night of at North Vietnamese creeping up the in Vietnam, he found what he had been hill. When enemy soldiers stuck their seeking: a home, people he valued and a cause. "My war involved me, 12 hell on a hill heads up to see why the supposed gre- nades had not exploded, the marines Americans and the 2,300 Montagnards made kill after kill, one rifle shot at a that were in our little village," he re- On the football fields of time. When the North Vietnamese calls. "I had visions of those people that Iowa where he was an all- started a familiar predawn chant, "Ma- I had grown to love being killed, and state tackle, 20 yards was rine, you die," Howard had his men that is what motivated me.' enough for two first downs. shout back every obscenity they could Early on April 1, 1970, Beikirch's tight On the rocky summit of think of, then laugh as loudly as they little world exploded in a devastating Hill 488 in Vietnam, it was could. That also worked. Enemy sol- enemy attack. He grabbed his medic's 1966 the width of a precarious diers concluded that the force on the kit and raced across an open slope to outpost that Staff Sgt. Jimmie Howard hill had to be much bigger than one pla- treat a wounded Vietnamese. Amid and 17 other marines defended for one toon if it could laugh at certain death. bullets and shrapnel, he toted another long night against a North Vietnamese When help arrived the next day, the wounded soldier to a medical bunker, battalion. platoon's 12 survivors- all badly then darted out to help a wounded This Alamo with survivors was a fight wounded - were down to eight bullets American lieutenant. between tough, seasoned enemies who and a few rocks. The platoon on "How- Almost immediately, the medic was knew how dramatically an entire cam- ard's Hill" became one of the most dec- hit by a mortar round. Still he managed paign, or even a war, could be affected orated in history: 18 Purple Hearts, 13 to drag himself forward, patch the offi- by the action of one small unit. How- Silver Stars, 4 Navy Crosses and Jimmie cer's wounds and crawl back to the bun- ard's reconnaissance platoon had been Howard's Medal of Honor. ker, pulling the lieutenant behind him. set down on Hill 488 at dusk on June 13, Refusing treatment, the sergeant made 1966, to direct air and artillery strikes BY JAMES WALLACE 48 U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991 BUSINESS ILLUSTRATIONS BY MARC ROSENTHAL FOR USN&WR OF AMERICA TED STATES DO Big-bank marriages Who should get hitched to whom-and why. A matchmaker's guide T he big news in banking circles think you'll get more competition and more of the country's 1.5 million bank these days, along with the Trea- better service for consumers," says employees could lose their jobs-not a sury Department's sweeping new Democratic Rep. Charles Schumer of politically palatable prospect. plan to reform the industry, is the long New York. Salomon Brothers analyst Nonetheless, banking authorities sup- list of suitors eager to merge with the Thomas Hanley believes that the first port mergers as a way to revive a deci- failed Bank of New England. Much of major bank merger will be "the catalyst mated industry. In announcing his the proposal has met with resistance, that radically changes the landscape of bank-reform plan, Treasury Secretary but there's virtually no argument with American banking as the top 15 players Nicholas Brady complained that Ameri- one premise of the plan: America has start to pair off." ca's banks have lost their worldwide too many banks and the industry must Some bank marriages, like the one competitive edge. Indeed, U.S. banks consolidate. Most U.S. banks are small, involving the battered Bank of New En- have three times the operating expenses local institutions, which depend heavily gland, look more like shotgun weddings per dollar of assets compared with Japa- on their hometown economies. As a re- as the industry seeks a quick fix for pal- nese banks. Mergers could make Amer- sult, they have gotten into financial try earnings and a worrisome capital ican banks as strong as some of their trouble because of a failure to diversify crunch. Last year, profits for the na- international rivals. Britain has just 550 assets and an inability to keep down tion's top 35 banks fell 28 percent, mak- commercial banks, Canada has 65 and borrowing and operating costs. "Right ing it the worst year for banking since Japan has fewer than 150. Because there now, we've got about 13,000 banks," the 1930s. Because of deteriorating loan are fewer banks in these countries than says David Beim of Columbia Business portfolios and undernourished capital in the United States and because they School, "and that's at least 12,000 more bases, most U.S. banks are scrambling are mostly national, they can more safe- than we need." to raise cash. Cutting costs can help. ly spread their risks and allocate capital The financial-services industry will And a sure-fire method for saving on more efficiently to growing industries. shrink in the 1990s, as small-town banks bank overhead is to merge. The savings In fact, there have been no big bank fail- become branches of big-city banks and translate into higher earnings, which ures in these nations. big-city banks merge to become nation- make it easier to sell more shares of Below, analysts pick four of the most wide banks. "In that consolidation I stock. As banks consolidate, a third or attractive U.S. bank mergers: U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991 49 The key question now is how big that dowry will be. Chemical and Manufacturers Hanover. Which of Manhattan's embattled mon- ey-center banks will be the first to merge? The top five candidates, in or- der of size, are Citicorp, Chase Manhat- tan, Chemical, Manufacturers Hanover and Bank of New York. The yentas of Wall Street believe that a marriage between Chemical, with $2.7 billion in noninterest expenses, and Manufacturers Hanover, with annual expenses of $2.1 billion, makes the most economic sense. However, eliminating duplicative retail outlets could be a problem because leases by the banks may be hard to break. One industry ob- server says that banks with these bind- RISKY ENGAGEMENT ing real-estate commitments might have MONEY-CENTER MARRIAGE to go so far as to declare bankruptcy to Beleaguered Bank of New England is extricate themselves. Chemical and Manny Hanny have being courted by many suitors, but Still, Chemical and Manny Hanny would be a formidable couple. Chemi- much in common. Each focuses on Banc One may be the perfect match. cal, for example, is the strongest small- global and consumer banking. business bank in New York, and it has Bank of New England and Banc One. developed niches overseas in areas like work with Chemical Chairman Walter Some banks have no choice: to merge foreign exchange and the financing of Shipley. Banking insiders claim there is or die. Such is the case with Bank of mergers and acquisitions. Manny coolness between the two men. Neither New England, recently taken over by Hanny also has a significant presence in executive would comment for this story, the government after real-estate-loan global capital and currency markets, so but before wedding bells peal, egos may losses wiped out its capital. About a costs could be trimmed there. More have to be sacrificed. dozen suitors-including BankAmerica money could be saved from consolida- and the buyout firm of Kohlberg Kravis tion of the two banks' consumer-bank- BankAmerica and First Interstate. Roberts - are considering making a bid ing divisions. BankAmerica and First Interstate, both for the $20 billion bank. But, analysts A major stumbling block may be get- California-based, have been making say, the most logical acquirer would be ting Thomas Johnson - Chemical's one- eyes at one another for years. They Columbus, Ohio-based Banc One. time No. 2 executive who defected for were happily married decades ago, but With a return on assets of 1.55 per- Manny Hanny's presidency in 1989 to grew too big and were forced to di- cent, Banc One is considered the most profitable large bank in America. (Only 14 of the TROUBLE IN TOKYO biggest U.S. banks achieved a March 31, 1993, will require return of 1 percent or more banks to have capital equiva- during last year's third quar- Japan's banking blues lent to 8 percent of their risk- adjusted assets. As a result, ter.) Banc One has succeeded Japanese banks have been by avoiding risky loans for f misery loves company, Though the industry's prob- forced to curtail loan growth highly leveraged transactions then America's flagging lems still pale in comparison and raise fresh capital, just as and by focusing on more con- banks have plenty of compan- with America's banking the sharp decline of share servative consumer deposits. ions across the Pacific. Higher blues no major bank is even Growth for Banc One has prices on the Tokyo Stock Ex- interest rates, real-estate woes close to going belly up-Japa- change has made it next to im- come through acquisition of and the Tokyo stock market's nese banks are now compelled possible to raise funds. The troubled banks. Last year, it plunge of nearly 40 percent in to alter their business prac- softening Japanese real-estate purchased MCorp, a strug- 1990 have left Japan's once tices. In the past, Japan's su- market has added to the bank- gling $11 billion bank in Tex- highflying banks reeling. Last perbanks aggressively pursued ing industry's troubles. To rein as. By fixing problem banks, year, Moody's Investors Ser- market share by concentrating in hyperinflated land prices Banc One has proved it can vice downgraded the credit rat- on high-volume corporate and reduce banks' exposure to cope with the financial chal- ings of Dai-Ichi Kangyo, the loans with razor-thin margins. this fragile market, the Minis- lenge that Bank of New En- world's biggest bank; Fuji, Su- They also plowed massive try of Finance has ordered the gland will present. mitomo and Mitsubishi banks, funds into the nation's once industry to cut back on lucra- A crucial factor in deter- as well as four Japanese trust booming stock and property tive but risky property-related mining Bank of New En- banks. Other financial institu- markets. loans. On top of this, interest- gland's price will be the gov- tions are now being reviewed But no longer. New interna- rate deregulation has squeezed ernment's willingness to take for possible downgrades. tional rules effective after profits for most banks. Overall, over the bad loans and pro- tect the purchaser from loss. 50 U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991 Analysts say the banks' combined non- interest expense of $6.4 billion could eas- ily be cut by $780 million, pushing com- bined annual earnings up to $2 billion from the $1.25 billion they earned on their own last year. Savings would come MORTGAGE primarily from the sale of First Inter- state's 332 California branches. Addi- LEAVING tional cuts could be made if the Trea- CALIF. sury's proposal for interstate banking is enacted. Elimination of the requirement that multistate bank holding companies maintain separate subsidiaries with separate boards of directors, accountants and lawyers-would save BankAmerica $50 million a year. First Interstate's an- nual savings could be even greater. Citicorp and H. F. Ahmanson. Skeptics argue that bicoastal marriages OUT-OF-STATE HONEYMOON rarely work. But one promising and com- BUILDING A HOME TOGETHER patible partnership would be the combi- BankAmerica may want to marry First nation of the country's biggest bank and Citicorp and H. F. Ahmanson, the Interstate in order to further expand its largest thrift: New York's Citicorp and Los Angeles-based H. F. Ahmanson. largest U.S. thrift, could blend their business base in the West. Both financial institutions are indus- huge single-family-mortgage portfolios. try leaders in single-family mortgages - vorce by the government. With regula- the least risky type of real-estate loan. With its support of nationwide bank- tors now pushing mergers, the pair may Ahmanson boasts some $38 billion in ing, the government would probably ap- remarry. deposits and originates some $10 bil- prove of this bank marriage. And, to The second-largest bank in the Unit- lion in home mortgages each year. the delight of banking regulators, Ah- ed States, with $110 billion in assets, More than 90 percent of its loan port- manson may be able to teach giant Citi- BankAmerica wants to expand further, folio is secured by residential real es- corp how to make money the old-fash- beyond its seven-state base in the West. tate, and while it runs 94 mortgage- ioned way. By rarely lending more than Linking up with First Interstate - the lending offices in 13 states, nearly 80 80 percent of the appraised value of a largest multistate bank holding compa- percent of its lending business is in house and by maintaining a staff of in- ny in the United States, with more than California. Citicorp, with $217 billion in house appraisers to make sure the num- 1,100 branches in 14 Western states - assets and a home-loan portfolio of $66 bers are not inflated, Ahmanson has would be the most efficient way to billion, has been aching to get into the managed its considerable credit risk achieve this goal. California market. well. Last year, net income from its core lending operations rose an impressive 16.3 percent. bank profits are expected to amount issued last year to Insurance Corp., to assist in a Despite the outward ap- drop by an average of 27 per- improve their capital ratios. merger. peal of this bank marriage, cent for the year ending March Like its American counter- The remaining months of however, Ahmanson's chair- 31, 1991. part, Japan's banking industry 1991 may prove kinder to Japa- man, Richard Deihl, says that Credit crunch. The banks' re- is about to undergo consolida- nese banks. Interest rates are a big merger isn't imminent. sponse has been to get back to tion. Two of the nation's stron- inching down and the Nikkei Even if it were, Citicorp basics. They are expanding gest banks, Kyowa Bank and stock average is staging a mus- clearly has no capital to lending spreads by charging Saitama Bank, will combine cular rally in anticipation of spare. In fact, with nearly 19 more for loans, even at the risk their businesses on an equal further rate cuts. Some ana- percent of its $13.3 billion of losing market share. They basis this April; the resulting lysts are now predicting a mod- commercial real-estate port- are also lending more selec- new institution will become the est recovery in fiscal 1991 prof- folio consisting of nonper- tively, focusing on traditional nation's eighth-biggest com- its for the nation's top forming loans, Citicorp is fe- corporate, project and retail mercial bank and among the commercial banks, barring an- verishly trying to cut costs loans. One offshoot is tighter top 20 banks in the world. An- other stock meltdown or a and raise capital. John Reed, credit: Total lending grew by a alysts expect additional merg- real-estate market free fall. the bank's chairman, says he piddling 3 percent in the first ers to follow, with big commer- Even so, Japan's once seem- hopes to come up with at half of last year, compared cial banks linking up with ingly invincible banking jugger- least $4 billion. In the end, with double digit growth dur- regional banks. Should a bank naut will continue to backpedal Citi may lose Ahmanson to a ing the preceding period. become threatened, the Fi- for some time to come. It's West Coast bank that wants Meanwhile, banks are scram- nance Ministry is also prepared time to say sayonara to the go- to deprive the New York bling to issue some 2 trillion to use Japan's Deposit Insur- go 1980s. money-center giant of the yen worth of subordinated ance Corp., modeled after large California franchise it debt and loans the same Washington's Federal Deposit BY JIM IMPOCO IN TOKYO SO badly desires. BY TERRI THOMPSON U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991 51 COMMENTARY How to make banks safer Washington should withdraw deposit insurance coverage if financial institutions make risky investments with the public's money T he U.S. Treasury has taken the initiative in an effort The confusion lies with federal deposit insurance. Small to modernize our financial system. Rightly, it sees that depositors are protected and thus have no reason to exercise deposit insurance reform must be an essential ingredi- scrutiny. Large depositors have or should acquire - the ent. But the Treasury's recent proposals will not accomplish ability to distinguish between sound and questionable banks. their objective: healthier banks and less-exposed taxpayers. But Washington has diluted market discipline by espousing By limiting the insurance maximum - to $100,000 per indi- the doctrine of "too big to fail." So large depositors in big vidual and $100,000 for retirement accounts - the govern- banks are effectively fully protected. Only large depositors in ment plan would clearly limit the direct liability of the insur- small banks that fail are sometimes hurt. ance fund. But in the process, it would reduce the value of The dilemma is plain: The United States is unwilling to the banks' deposit-taking franchise just when they are un- accept a financial framework without deposit insurance, but der pressure to increase capital. And by continuing to sup- true market discipline is incompatible with deposit insur- port the "too big to fail" doctrine, MARC ROSENTHAL FOR USN&WR ance. The irony is that despite a de- the Treasury is discriminating in fa- cade of deregulation, major banks vor of big banks and leaving the de- are now more dependent on the gov- posit insurance funds with increas- ernment for their survival than ever. ing indirect liabilities. To reconcile this issue of govern- The Treasury's contorted position ment versus market discipline, I pro- is an awkward attempt at compro- BANK pose that all deposit institutions be mise in the long debate over how to rated-either by one of the private- discipline banks. One school holds sector bond rating agencies or by an that discipline must be imposed by official supervisory agency. To be eli- government. Advocates believe banks gible for full insurance coverage, de- have a special public duty that sets posit institutions would be required them apart from other businesses. to maintain at least an AA rating. Also, banks are heavily leveraged and Falling below this rating would mean vulnerable. So a balance must be the loss of full insurance coverage 12 struck between their entrepreneurial months later, unless the institution drive and fiduciary responsibility. initiated remedial action prescribed Government regulation - imposing by regulators. The threat of the loss capital ratios, loan diversification cri- of deposit insurance would serve as teria and management oversight-i an effective check on go-go bankers the main way of ensuring balance. and thrift executives. The competing school believes Implementation would take time. that banks should be disciplined pri- Regulators would have to develop a marily by the marketplace. Banks method of setting credit standards should be allowed to prosper or fail like other companies comparable to private ratings and then test them out. Phas- and should be able to pursue opportunities without onerous ing in the new deposit insurance eligibility requirements restrictions. But it is up to investors and depositors to moni- might take five years. tor performance. If a bank starts to go wrong, they should But the benefits would be great. The too-big-to-fail doc- rebuke it by selling stock and withdrawing money. Only that trine could be scrapped, since all insured institutions would threat can rein in reckless managements. have to follow more-conservative lending practices. Early in- Policy gyrations. The problem is that we have never made tervention by the regulators in case of management failure up our minds about which school to embrace. In this century would be encouraged. And taxpayers wouldn't have to res- we have swung from minimal government involvement to cue overextended deposit insurance funds, which would no intensive bank regulation in the aftermath of the 1929 crash. longer be used to bankroll financial executives more intent Starting in the 1960s, we moved back toward tolerance of on doing deals than upholding fiduciary responsibilities. financial entrepreneurship. This culminated in the deregula- The resulting financial system would serve the economy tion of the 1980s and the recent S&L and bank failures. better. Banks would be far safer and sounder. And risky We now have a hybrid policy that satisfies no one. Gov- ventures would be undertaken by sophisticated investors ernment regulation is extensive but can be highly ineffec- who can weigh the risks and rewards and accept losses with- tive. Market discipline is exerted erratically. The stocks and out a government bailout. bonds of financial companies are whipsawed by shifts in market judgments. But discipline is heavily watered down BY HENRY KAUFMAN by the behavior of most depositors, whose money is insured HENRY KAUFMAN IS PRESIDENT OF HENRY KAUFMAN & CO., A NEW YORK MONEY by the government. MANAGEMENT AND FINANCIAL CONSULTING FIRM. 52 U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991 Time is money. And a CMA account can help you manage both more effectively. 10 of Anno 50 OF MADE IN 02 GERMANY 22 How many accounts do you The CMA account also and the CMA money market have to keep track of? One for gives you a monthly statement funds, including charges and stocks? One for CDs? One for that shows all your account expenses, obtain prospectuses spending and one for saving? activity. 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Box 470 Federalsburg, MD 21632-0473 Or, for faster credit card service, call toll-free: 1-800-234-7323 (Touch-tone phones only) For bulk orders, contact: Carol Sorensen (202) 955-2473 Educational equality. South African boys eat lunch together on the first day of integrated classes in Johannesburg last month. Post-apartheid economics The cost of reform Even those with jobs earn 10 percent of white incomes on average. The time ap- in South Africa will proaches when black gardeners will cast their ballots beside white bankers, but be staggering few blacks can ever aspire to such a profession. Only 36 percent of black high-school seniors passed their final ne year ago last week, the hopes exams in December. Clearly, erasing of black South Africans rose the economic legacies of apartheid will with the fist of Nelson Mandela, prove much more difficult than wiping as the newly freed prisoner brandished its laws from the books. a black-power salute to his cheering After 43 years of segregation and supporters. This year, expectations have three centuries of economic develop- been elevated again, as President F. W. Together but unequal ment skewed in favor of white inter- de Klerk boldly proposed to scrap the As barriers to equality fall in South Africa, ests, South Africa is one of the most laws that have racially classified each the economic divide between whites and unequal societies on earth. Some 7 mil- South African and assigned each race blacks becomes more apparent. lion to 8 million blacks (roughly one its own place to live. And compromises Whites Blacks quarter of the total) live in shacks. A made last week by both Mandela and Unemployment 1% 11% majority of black households exist be- de Klerk should speed negotiations to- Estimated housing 104,000 2,107,000 low the poverty line. Whites own all in- ward giving all South Africans the vote. shortage (units) dustry and 83 percent of the land. And, But just as dreams deferred helped Pupils per 17:1 39:1 despite recent changes, state spending make 1990 South Africa's most violent teacher on education, health care and pensions year since unrest broke out in 1976, new Annual per capita $120 $61 remains strongly biased in favor of the freedoms may frustrate their beneficia- government health- white minority. ries. Soon, blacks will be permitted to care spending Correcting such inequality is bound buy land, but few can afford property. to be a major priority of any post- U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991 PHOTO BY LOUISE GUBB JB PICTURES FOR USN&WR 53 After one million two million what do we do Third Brake Light Unibelt Lap and Shoulder New "Child-Protection" center mounted high inside Restraints protect all front and Lock on sliding door prevents the lift gate is visible through rear outboard passengers. These the door from being unlatched the rear window as an extra restraints lock up instantly dur- from the inside. "Kids can't open signal to drivers behind you. ing severe deceleration. the door" while you're driving. New 4-Wheel Anti-Lock Brakes available. Help prevent wheel lock-up, make braking safer and surer. Also let you maneuver during hard braking. The First Minivan Chrysler invented the minivan. We were first. Chrysler minivans, we'll be the first to offer them congratulations. puts driver-side air bags in every car we build in the U.S.** For the past seven years the competition has been Another first. trying to catch us. Match our success. Our innovations. The next step was a foregone conclusion Chrysler is And always ended up a poor secondt first with minivan air bags. And when Ford, GM and the And this year, with our new aerodynamic styling and imports get around to putting drivers' air bags in their redesigned interiors it's true again. Especially in new *The minivan air bag does not qualify as a passenger car passive restraint system. For added safety you must wear your seat belt. **Excludes vehicles built for Chrysler: Imports, Laser, Talon, Premier, Monaco, Summit. tBased on total sales. Air Bags and Minivans, for an encore? Car-Like Handling and The First Driver's Air Bag ever in a Minivan. Maneuverability with 18:1 power The minivan air bag used with a lap/shoulder belt is the best steering responsiveness and front- driver safety system available today.* Together they save lives. wheel drive. You'll park like a pro too. Make sure your new minivan has one. New All-Wheel Drive System available. Offers superior straight- line acceleration and better traction and cornering ability on wet or slippery roads. This extra traction is automatic. When needed, it is there. Automatically. Power To Avoid Trouble. The newly available 3.3-liter V-6 engine. Or the available 3.0-liter V-6. All the power you need to avoid bad drivers and bad situations. with an Air Bag. safety features. Not only have we added air bags to drive and more V-6 power. Dodge Caravan and Plymouth Voyager, we've also made Dodge Caravan and Plymouth Voyager. The original. available four-wheel anti-lock brakes, four-wheel And still the leader. Beware of imitations. Dodge Advantage: Dodge Plymouth Advantage: Plymouth LOUISE GUBB JB PICTURES BUSINESS apartheid government in South Africa. But the costs of change will be stagger- and perhaps unaffordable. Esti- LIZO mates put the ultimate price tag at any- where from $20 billion to $120 billion. Inflated expectations. According to the African National Congress (ANC), future black rule will mean "houses, se- curity and comfort" for all. Yet the South African reality is that black-white parity will take decades to achieve if current living standards are to be sus- tained. "The greatest problem at the moment is black expectations," says Stellenbosch University's Servaas van der Berg. "Apartheid has set levels of privilege for whites far in excess of what our Third World economy can afford. Growth is impossible without redistri- bution [of wealth], and redistribution is Housing hardship. Roughly one quarter of all South African blacks live in shacks. impossible without growth." Educational inequality is likely to be cost: At least $8 billion a year in extra South Africa's black-white gap in- the major challenge facing the new expenditures will be needed to even out trudes in a number of other ways. Pen- South Africa. Since 1976, a generation of standards. Another obstacle is popula- sions for those whites who qualify are blacks has had little or no schooling tion growth. According to current pro- 84 percent larger than for blacks. Pen- thanks to politically motivated disrup- jections, South Africa's population (now sion spending would have to balloon to tion of the white-imposed education sys- nearly 40 million) will swell to 60 million achieve racial parity. Property owner- tem. Producing equality of education by the year 2010, doubling the number of ship in a country with relatively little ar- appears to be impossible. One reason is school places needed for blacks. able land favors whites; 40,000 white farmers account for 80 percent of farm output while 4 million rural blacks are (Advertisement) landless and jobless. And while most whites enjoy adequate housing, provid- ing enough homes for blacks means building more than 1,000 units a day un- til the end of the century-at an esti- mated extra cost of $4 billion a year. Looking outside their borders, South African economists believe that the lift- ing of sanctions could boost growth by 2 percent a year and lure badly needed Sentimental Stevedore-If you're looking for a foreign capital back to the country. German Chancellor Helmut Kohl and guy with that impossible combination of quali- British Prime Minister John Major agreed last week to lift sanctions within ties, your ship has come in. I'm romantic and months, as soon as Parliament in Cape Town has followed de Klerk's lead by vulnerable, yet junk yard dogs run the other way. abolishing the last remnants of apart- If a man with poetry in his soul, and a certain heid legislation. One way or another, apartheid's eco- ineffable grittiness, sounds right for you, I could nomic legacy will be central to policy making in South Africa long after the be the one. I'm 5'6", 190 lbs. I'm open-minded last white supremacist has lost power. A redistribution of wealth and resources about your looks-it's your inner qualities that appears certain. But if the process of reform ends up weakening the free count. Like being faithful to gas water heating. market, deterring foreign investment Gas heats water for 1/2 the cost of electricity. and driving out skilled white labor, South Africa-with its great potential to become Africa's engine for growth in the coming decades-will not be the only one to suffer. BY ROBIN KNIGHT WITH DON L. BOROUGHS AND JIM JONES IN SOUTH AFRICA U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK HIGHER INTEREST RATES ARE ON THE WAY BY JOHN RUTLEDGE PAYROLL PAIN A SYMPHONY OF BAD ECONOMIC NEWS. The stock market has been overrun by the bullish 112 mil. herds, but the economic reports of the past two weeks have been downright grim. January car 111 and light-truck sales, for example, plunged 27.8 percent. U.S. auto makers announced 15 plant closings and 40,000 layoffs. January nonfarm payroll employment fell by a whopping 232,000 110 jobs, its fourth large monthly decline in a row, and the unemployment rate inched up to 6.2 per- NONAGRICULTURAL 109 PAYROLL EMPLOYEES cent. As this symphony of bad news plays on, people are asking how long it will take for the 108 economy to return to normal once the war is over. What they are forgetting is that the economy was already in bad shape last summer before most Americans had ever heard of Saddam Hus- 0 JFMAMJJASONDJ sein. And a worldwide capital shortage in the 1990s is going to keep us from going back to the 1990 1991 good old days of 2 million housing starts and 10 million car sales per year. To trim labor costs and expand profit Washington is currently scrambling to resuscitate the comatose economy. The Federal Reserve has margins, firms began pushed the discount rate, the rate that the Fed charges banks for loans, down again by another half laying off employees percentage point, to 6 percent. But we can't buy our way back to prosperity with low interest rates. last summer. THE GLOBAL CAPITAL SHORTAGE. Rates are falling in the United States now, but rising capital SLOW STARTS costs in other nations tell us that cheap money won't be available for long in this country. A 2 mil. world capital crunch caused by a massive increase in demand for credit and new capital goods in 1.8 Germany and Eastern Europe will soon push real interest rates higher all over the world. 1.6 1.4 NEW The burdensome task of rebuilding eastern Germany is going to cost the German government PRIVATE 1.2 more than 5 percent of GDP in 1991. To raise the funds, the government will have to borrow HOUSING UNITS 1 huge sums. As a result, the legendary German trade surplus will be pushed into deficit this year. 8 All of this spending will increase domestic demand. To blunt inflation and to attract capital, the 0 1981 '83 '85 '87 '89'90 Bundesbank recently raised interest rates again. Fading consumer confidence and sluggish The estimated cost of bringing productivity and living standards in Eastern Europe up to Western European levels is somewhere between $1 trillion and $2 trillion. This is an effort of Marshall Plan income growth have plunged housing into a proportions that is going to increase the demand for capital goods for decades. Growing credit de- deep recession. mands will not be limited to Eastern Europe. Market reforms in Western Europe mean higher growth and increased capital spending by firms that seek a presence in Europe after 1992. Rapid RISING RATES growth in the Far East and Japan will lead to heavy capital spending there, too. Add to these needs the war damage. Rebuilding Kuwait will cost more than $30 billion once the fighting stops. And 10% Germany 9 the White House is already discussing the cost of helping to repair a damaged Iraq. Looking U.S. ahead, it's easy to envision multitrillion-dollar capital spending needs in the 1990s. 8 7 Japan Japan and Germany will pay for their war participation in cash. And Kuwait will make a $23 bil- 6 YIELDS ON GOVERNMENT 5 lion contribution. To raise this money, these nations will have to issue new debt offerings, which BONDS will push bond prices down and interest rates up. The overall result will be higher real interest 0 rates in the 1990s than those we learned to live with in the 1980s. SOND FMAMJ J ASOND 1989 1990 1991 Reunification of How EXPENSIVE CAPITAL WILL HURT BUSINESS. These high real interest rates are going to Germany is pushing up have a major impact on U.S. business in the coming decade. Higher rates mean the United its bond yields. This States won't be able to consume its way out of its economic difficulties by jump-starting housing surge will force other starts and auto sales. There will have to be significant restructuring as capital goods and export capital-hungry nations industries grow at the expense of consumer-durable producers. And the rising cost of capital will to increase rates. increase pressure on managers to divest low-return assets in order to improve shareholder value. These pressures will be especially strong in capital-intensive industries like banking, insurance and utilities. It also means that government policy is going to have to switch from pushing inter- est rates lower to helping the economy gradually adapt to the high cost of money. Note: February bond yields reflect latest quotes. USN&WR-Basic data: U.S. Depts. of Commerce and Labor, International JOHN RUTLEDGE IS CHAIRMAN OF CLAREMONT ECONOMICS INSTITUTE, A CALIFORNIA-BASED Monetary Fund, Salomon Bros. MANAGEMENT CONSULTING AND INVESTMENT ADVISORY FIRM. U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991 57 SCIENCE & SOCIETY SITE PROJECTS INC. Green Manhattan. James Wines's vision of the naked city Designing in hues of green A new breed of architect is creating homes and offices with the environment foremost in mind Ancient technology. Housing constructed of A house is a machine for living in," aesthetic and pragmatic ends. Archi- pueblos of the area's indigenous peo- said French architect Le Corbu- tects who were once marginalized as ples and the geologic history of the val- sier in 1923. And for most of the "regional" and relegated to the out- ley the houses overlook. 20th century, architects have carried on skirts of the New York-centered archi- Giving them shelter. But Predock's a love affair with technology, paying tectural establishment are now celebrat- creations are also deft examples of pas- progressively less heed to the natural ed for their regionalism and sensitivity sive heating and cooling, technologies environment. Nearly lost was Frank to the local environment. Albuquerque that are increasingly capturing the at- Lloyd Wright's dictum that, "No house architect Antoine Predock, for example, tention of the architectural community. should ever be on any hill. It should has garnered a host of international The La Luz houses are remarkably ef- be of the hill, belonging to it, so hill and awards and prestigious commissions be- fective shelters, moderating the extreme house could live together each the hap- cause, as New York Times architecture desert temperatures far better than pier for the other." critic Paul Goldberger put it, "He de- could buildings that were more alien to Now, Wright's organic approach to ar- signs buildings deeply ingrained in the the site. Adobe acts as a thermal stor- chitecture is once again ascendant, em- traditions and spirit of a place yet un- age system. During the day, the 16-inch- braced by architects and designers in- like anything we have seen before." thick walls absorb heat slowly enough spired by the global green movement and Predock's buildings are at once beau- that the interior remains cool. Only at eager to lend their skills to protecting tiful and supremely functional, both night, when the temperature drops pre- and preserving the environment. They qualities that grow out of his intimate cipitously, does the stored heat reach are seeking out recycled and renewable understanding of the desert Southwest. the interior. To defend against dust materials, devising low-energy heating In Albuquerque, his La Luz luxury storms and the late afternoon summer and cooling systems, addressing the high housing development rises like an ab- sun, Predock left the western walls win- levels of indoor air pollution and bring- stract version of the mesas that sur- dowless, while to the east he opened ing wind, water and trees back into urban round it. The houses, clustered along the buildings to views of the Rio Gran- environments. In the process, they are the ridgetop, leave undisturbed the de and the mountains beyond. redefining notions of architectural chic, fragile riverside habitat and permit Predock's use of passive heating and replacing the opulence of the '80s with a open space to be preserved in a single cooling methods contrasts with the simpler and less gilded style. broad expanse. Made of sun-dried ado- high-tech energy-conservation strate- What's more, they are again integrat- be, some of it made of sand excavated gies of the 1970s, which often created as ing architecture with landscape, to both on the site, they are linked to both the many problems as they solved. When 58 U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991 PETER MENZEL Similarly, California architect Sim Van Der Ryn shuns forced-air heating systems, which blast dust and bacteria into the air supply, in favor of passive solar and radiant heat, which is not only cleaner but also uses substantially less en- ergy. He advocates installing insulation on the outside rather than the inside of air ducts to prevent the shedding of toxic fibers; sealing water pipes to prevent leaching of lead and other toxins into the water supply; keeping humid- ity levels low to discourage microbial growth, and incor- porating design features that protect against rodents, ter- mites and water rot, minimiz- ing the need for pesticides, fungicides or preservatives. Green-backed dollars. Ad- mittedly, there is a cost to all this. McDonough estimates the nontoxic "surcharge" at about 25 percent. But envi- ronmental planning can also save money: New York archi- tect Randolph Croxton's ren- ovation of the Natural Re- sources Defense Council headquarters in Manhattan, for example, cost $68 per square foot, $14 higher than "rammed earth," in which local soil is compacted with cement, dates back to the third century B.C. the going rate. The NRDC says it hopes to recoup some of architects sealed new buildings and did New York architect William McDon- its investment in lowered energy bills and away with operable windows, they also ough's Manhattan headquarters for the reduced incidence of employee illness. sealed in the highly toxic gases and fi- Environmental Defense Fund is a model As the demand for nontoxic materials bers emitted by paints, finishes, glues, of nontoxic design. McDonough re- increases, more manufacturers are mov- insulation, fungicides and wood preser- placed plywood and particle board, both ing into the market and the cost of ma- vatives. As a result, according to the of which are known to emit formalde- terials is gradually dropping. Until re- Environmental Protection Agency, in- hyde, with solid wood, had carpets cently, Connecticut architect Paul door spaces are now five times more tacked rather than glued, substituted Bierman-Lytle had to import many of polluted on average than the outdoors. beeswax for polyurethane on office his materials from Germany, often pay- Unfortunately, architects today have floors and installed windows that open. ing a third more than he would for a only fragmentary information JEFFREY MacMILLAN domestic product. But next on the toxicity of many com- fall, Bierman-Lytle plans to mon building materials; and open what he calls a "21st although a few highly toxic century lumberyard" in Los materials like asbestos are Angeles. There he will sell now regulated, most still are more than 5,000 environmen- not. To remedy that deficien- tally sound American-made cy, the American Institute of building products to archi- Architects recently began tects and contractors around work on an Environmental the country, including insula- Resources Guide, which will tion derived from a seawater provide chemical analyses of mineral and wood finishes commonly used materials and made of such ingredients as list less toxic alternatives. citrus peel and juniper ber- Though the project will re- ries. In fact, cost calculations quire years to complete, sever- may shift dramatically in fa- al architects have already vor of nontoxic builders in made progress in improving the coming months, as class- the quality of indoor air. La Luz in Albuquerque. Antoine Predock's "abstract landscape" action suits in the hundreds U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991 59 PETER ESTO of billions of dollars are porating chunks of rub- filed against paint manu- ble from World War II, facturers, architects and and its shimmering skin developers for the public will be made of recycled health hazard posed by aluminum. toxic building practices. Architects are also For buildings already looking beyond individ- standing, green plants ual buildings to the re- may help safeguard air shaping of urban and sub- quality. A recent study by urban environments, as the National Aeronautics well as the transportation and Space Administra- that links them. A recent tion and the Associated study of the Los Angeles Landscape Contractors river basin at the South- of America found that ern California Institute of common houseplants can Architecture (SCIARC) remove as much as 70 makes clear just how percent of the pollutants much damage urban in indoor air. Different planners have done. With plants "scrub" different the miles of paving in Los chemicals: Gerbera dai- Angeles, rainwater can sies and English ivy, for no longer seep into the instance, absorb large Berkeley Hills. Solar-heated house by Steve Badanes and Jim Adamson ground. Instead, it floods quantities of formalde- the river basin, washing hyde and greatly reduce benzene levels. tablished to help architects navigate this heavy metals off buildings and streets Researchers recommend using one plant moral maze, such a ban would be a bad directly into the sea. At the same time, per 100 square feet in offices and homes. idea. Eliminating the market for these the aquifer continues to be depleted, bad Designer marshes. Researchers are woods, they argue, would simply de- news in a state now suffering from the now developing a hydroponic system, press their value and diminish the local worst drought in history. with plants rooted in liquid nutrients, incentive to conserve and manage the Developers should be required to use which enhances their capacity to clean forests. Instead, they urge architects to permeable paving and leave some per- air. They are also exploring the possibil- specify wood produced in sustainable centage of space unpaved, argues Steven ity of constructing artificial marshes to plantations, difficult as it is at present Flusty, a graduate student instrumental help purify water within large building to verify the origins of lumber. in the SCIARC study. Flusty also con- complexes. Some have still more radical In a further effort to minimize their demns the builders of downtown Los ambitions. New York architect James impact on endangered resources, some Angeles for ignoring wind patterns. Wines proposes planting Manhattan's architects are exploring the use of recy- Clustered high-rises, he argues, block rooftops, preferably with edible plants cled materials or composites made from westerly winds that might otherwise help and fruit-bearing trees. "Each tree," he such waste products as wood pulp, dis- clear the heavily polluted air in the poor points out, referring to its oxygen pro- carded plastic and chopped foam. The neighborhoods of East Los Angeles. duction, "lets four people breathe." most ambitious use of such materials Planners are pursuing a so-called village Green-minded architects are equally will be William McDonough's skyscrap- model for new suburbs, recovering a concerned with the environmental costs er for Warsaw, soon to be the tallest small-town mix of houses and shops of mining, processing, manufacturing building in Eastern Europe. Literally built around public transportation. "Na- and disposing of building materials. For rising from the ashes of history, the ture mixes," says Wines. "Ecology is not its resources guide, the AIA will ana- building will have a concrete base incor- isolation but integration." lyze the entire "life cycle" of materials, Though "green" architecture may JEFFREY MacMILLAN USN&WR as will the European Community in seem a leap into the future, it draws awarding its newly devised "green" la- upon the most ancient of principles. bel for environmentally sound goods. The bedouin tent, after all, has for cen- Aluminum, for instance, is anything but turies tamed the searing desert heat, green at the outset: Bauxite mining, casting a dark, cool shadow and creat- most of which takes place in the Third ing cooling breezes by generating its World, is extremely destructive to the own convection currents. Similarly, the environment, and huge amounts of straw roof on a desert mud hut deflects electricity are required for purification. the summer sun and seals in heat in the But aluminum is redeemed at the end winter, when the mud walls soak up the of its cycle, to some degree, by being so warmth of the low-lying sun. These age- easy to recycle. old structures succeed as shelters be- Assessing the environmental costs of cause they are "of the desert," as the use of tropical woods is equally Wright might put it. Says Predock: complex. Concern about the destruc- "Good architecture has always had tion of the rain forests has led a number these values. You can't build well with- of architects to shun luxurious woods out thinking about site and climate and like mahogany and propose a blanket the essence of place." ban on importation. But in the view of Earth Access, a Boston-based group es- Out of rubble. McDonough and model BY MIRIAM HORN 60 U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991 SCIENCE & SOCIETY vice program that exploited very similar principles suggests that ZOO keepers and social workers ought to talk. In a Univer- The biological roots sity of Rochester-run program, nurses cultivated warm relationships with new mothers by regularly visiting them in of good mothering their homes, from near the onset of preg- nancy until the children's second birth- day. The nurses showed the new mothers how to play and talk to a child, much as Studies of man's closest evolutionary cousins older primates demonstrate mothering skills. Just as researchers have learned may offer lessons on how to prevent child abuse the value of keeping new monkey moth- ers with the pack, the nurses encouraged close friends and relatives to assist new n most counts, humans outdo times beating and in extreme cases fa- mothers. Perhaps equally as crucial, they apes. But no matter how much tally injuring their own babies. The reduced stress in ways comparable to the men and women pride them- researchers subsequently identified the measures used with apes and monkeys: selves on the table manners and heavenly unnatural social isolation imposed on Where the primatologists sought to ease symphonies that raise them above the the primates in captivity as the leading stress caused by cramped or barren hous- animal world, the "inferior" primates culprit in abuse. And faced with declin- ing, the Rochester nurses reduced family may still have lessons to teach their evo- ing primate populations and interna- tensions by helping the impoverished lutionary betters about one of the most tional limits on animal imports, many mothers find jobs and obtain benefits. In troublesome social issues of MICHAEL DICK ANIMALS ANIMALS the end, only 4 percent of the the 1990s: child abuse. low-income teen mothers who The provocative notion that received nurse visits neglected parents could learn from ap- or abused their children, com- ing the apes is based on a se- pared with 19 percent of those ries of recent studies of cap- who did not. They even suc- tive primates. In zoos and ceeded with the equivalent of research centers across the motherless mothers, teaching country, primatologists and parents who were themselves ZOO keepers are discovering abused as children how to that they can dramatically re- trust in their abilities as nur- duce mothers' maltreatment turant parents. of their infants through a few There is one important dif- simple strategies: by providing ference, however, between more livable quarters, by al- abusive humans and animals: lowing other female pri- Primates apparently learn mates the equivalent of much more quickly. National aunts and cousins-to help Institutes of Health primatol- out and reduce the stress of ogist Stephen Suomi says just parenting, and by exposing in- Ape lessons. Many animals need to learn good parenting. two days of contact with new- experienced mothers to good born infants made primate mothers in action. These examples from researchers realized they had to alter females more likely to hug and feed the animal world are beginning to catch the primates' environment if the ani- their own infants. By contrast, research- the attention of pediatricians, some of mals were to thrive. They made sure ers such as David Olds, designer of the whom are calling for similar reforms in biological mothers reared infants in Rochester program, have found that human child abuse prevention programs. more spacious group settings, compara- the only programs that really reduce Finding the culprit. Primatologists only ble to what they would experience in abuse are intensive and long-lasting. began reducing neglect and abuse the wild. They similarly exposed the Innovative researchers learned how to among apes when they discovered that previously motherless primates to play reduce abuse among monkeys and apes their efforts to protect primate infants with infants and peers, and introduced because they couldn't tolerate seeing often had the paradoxical effect of en- older mothers to help with the new their animals maltreated. But that sense dangering them. Due largely to now out- mothers' caretaking. They found that of necessity is not yet so evident to man. moded ideas on how to protect newborn inexperienced and even abusive moth- Just recently, pediatrician Ray Helfer, primates from disease and assault, ZOO ers, once given examples of good moth- co-author of "The Battered Child," dis- keepers used to remove new mothers ering and a chance to play with infants, charged a teenage mother from the hos- and their infants from the simian com- became competent parents themselves. pital to a cramped two-room apartment munity, or remove the infants from the Today, as few as 2 percent of primate in a cocaine-infested neighborhood; mothers and raise them in a "nursery." mothers abuse or neglect their babies, Helfer says he couldn't have legally sent But scientists began to notice that compared to an incidence of about 75 a chimp to such a place. "The animals primates born and raised in this manner percent in the 1970s. are telling us children's lives can be often grew up to be lousy parents. Animal research findings don't often turned around," says Helfer, "but we Roughly 3 out of 4 of the so-called translate easily into solutions to human have to put our minds to it." motherless mothers rebuffed the ap- problems, and the ape work is no excep- proaches of their own infants, some- tion. But at least one existing social ser- BY ART LEVINE U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991 61 SCIENCE & SOCIETY over in the White House or State Depart- ment than they do about the troops they compromise and misuse in places like War novels from Beirut and the Persian Gulf." In his life as well as in his writing, the former Naval Academy boxer pulls no a man who knows punches. In 1988, Webb quit as Navy sec- retary rather than go along with budget cuts that he thought would be harmful. While in office, he fought a losing battle James Webb has done his share of battling, both against the U.S. tilt to Iraq during the 1987-88 Persian Gulf crisis and opposed as a grunt and as a Washington bureaucrat deployment of the Navy to the gulf. He also found himself in the minority when he wrote a controversial 1979 CHARLIE ARCHAMBAULT F rom his eighth-floor office in Ar- magazine article opposing ad- lington, Va., James Webb has a mission of women to the ser- breathtaking vantage point from vice academies, a stance he which to contemplate the use and abuse has since softened. "Jim is not of power in the city that lies before him. a go-along guy," says Norman As he looks out at the Potomac River, Qualtrough, a former Webb Webb can see symbols of both what he aide. At Annapolis, Webb loves and what he loathes about Wash- learned a motto that still ington. In the distance looms the dome guides him: "When principle of the Capitol, where Webb once is involved, be deaf to expedi- worked as a congressional aide. To the ency." It is a philosophy that right sits the Pentagon, where Webb others in his family have also served as an assistant secretary of de- followed. His maternal grand- fense and, later, as secretary of the father was ostracized in rural Navy in the Reagan administration. Arkansas because he helped Down below, the Iwo Jima Memorial blacks to read. "He stood up salutes the valor of American Marines for what he believed in and like Webb, a Vietnam hero who has lost everything," says Webb. gone on to become a noted novelist. It was at Georgetown Law Webb, a graduate of the Naval Acade- School, which he entered after my, is descended from a long line of wounds suffered in Vietnam fighting men dating back before the ended his Marine service, that American Revolution, and his books Webb transformed himself serve as testimony to the heroism of from warrior to wordsmith. troops in battle. "There is one consisten- Writing was his way of re- cy in my novels," says Webb, "and that is sponding to a professor's hos- a great respect for the people who have Webb of intrigue. A cynical view of the Pentagon tile comments about Vietnam to implement U.S. military policy." But veterans. What began as a ca- the much decorated war veteran-win- are not based on members of the Bush tharsis became a career. ner of the Navy Cross, the Silver Star, administration. "What I tried to do," he Despite his writing success, Webb will two Bronze Stars and two Purple explains, "is put a human face on major not close the door on the possibility of re- Hearts-shows no such respect for civil- issues," including the readiness of politi- entering public life some day, only this ians who order troops into battle for the cal leaders to send troops to fight without time as a political candidate. In 1988, he wrong reasons. In his new novel, "Some- having clear goals and their unwilling- turned down a chance to be the Republi- thing To Die For" (Morrow, $19.95), ness to come to grips with America's can candidate for a U.S. Senate seat from Webb tells of a brave Marine officer sent growing loss of economic independence. Virginia because he did not want people by ambitious and cowardly leaders to Leaks, schemes, lies. The book's harsh to think that his decision to quit as Navy fight, and ultimately to perish, in a far- view of political power will likely make it secretary resulted from ulterior motives. away place. "It's a worst-case scenario the talk of Washington. The capital, says Charles McCarry sees in Webb the po- that happened to come true on a grand Webb, is a place "where an unelected tential to be a modern Lincoln or Chur- scale," argues CIA-agent-turned-novel- aristocracy wields so much influence be- chill. Says McCarry: "There is no limit to ist Charles McCarry, who is a friend of hind the scenes." In the novel, they leak what he can become in American life." the author's. Webb, who has opposed the to the press, scheme against one another Wherever his ambitions lead him, commitment of U.S. troops to the Per- and lie to the public. The city's dynamics Webb will stay close to his military sian Gulf, describes the book as "a delib- are summed up by the ill-fated hero: roots. His office is filled with reminders erate allegory on where the nation is in "God save me from the manipulative bu- of Marine history: some sand from Iwo the post-cold-war world." But he takes reaucrats in polyester-wool suits, button- Jima, a glass bottle from Saipan and great pains to distance the novel, much down collars and power ties and the kiss- rocks from Corregidor. James Webb re- of which is set in Eritrea, from real events ass officers who let them get away with it. mains a marine at heart. He would have and people. The book, completed more I don't need to see my men die because it no other way. than a year ago, is not about the current somebody cares more about helping the conflict, he contends, and the characters careers of their fellow madrigal singers BY ALVIN P. SANOFF 62 U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991 ON SPORTS BY TOM CALLAHAN Basketball's big gamble C oach Jerry Tarkanian, who might be called the lead- to all the booster club cash and illicit automobiles that pop ing rebounder in college basketball, collected Greg up regularly in the news, "then he can be paid to miss one. Anthony from the University of Portland in Oregon, To this cynicism add the understated elegance of Las Elmore Spencer from Connors State Junior College in Vegas, where Runnin' Rebels who fall short of the Na- Oklahoma, Larry Johnson from Odessa College in Texas tional Basketball Association routinely embrace what the and George Ackles from Garden City Community Junior city euphemistically terms the "gaming" business. "It's not College in Kansas. He brought them, together with two of a hard profession to break into," said a former forward the least celebrated high-school recruits in the country, who worked his way up from blackjack dealer to pit boss. Stacey Augmon from Pasadena, PAUL SUTTON DUOMO "All you have to do is count to 21." Calif., and Anderson Hunt from De- Next, calculate the presence of troit, to the University of Nevada at Coach Tarkanian, "Tark the Shark," Las Vegas. They are being called the the National Collegiate Athletic As- best team of all time. sociation's premier adversary, who For Las Vegas to have a team, let once joked that he preferred transfer alone the best the defending students because "their cars are al- national champions, undefeated and ready paid for." Finally this season, virtually unchallenged this season - following a 13-year battle all the way is either a horror or a delight. Colle- to the Supreme Court, Tarkanian had giate basketball operates the most to submit to NCAA justice for recruit- pervasive sewer in sports. But its his- ing violations. Strangely, the two-year toric worry, beyond the normal aca- suspension they had been wrestling demic shams, recruiting frauds and over for all that time was put aside, drug crimes, is gambling. Suddenly and UNLV was offered a multiple- the nation's casino has a college bas- choice penalty for stale sins. Either ketball team no one will bet against. forgo the tournament this year or lose Some weathered coaches, like Lou the tournament and regular-season Carnesecca of St. John's University in television fees next year. The NCAA Jamaica, N.Y., pull out a yellowed knew Tarkanian had a wonderful scrapbook every year so today's play- team. He elected the latter. ers are aware of the industry's 1951 Enough of the horror; now consid- sorrow, of the shoe box full of money er the theory of delight. Ed Warner of the City College of New Although indoor fireworks precede York hid in his aunt's basement, of Howling rebel. Tarkanian of Las Vegas the games and international headlin- Long Island University's Sherman ers sometimes sing the national an- White and 30 other confessed point shavers of lore. them, many citizens regard going to see the Runnin' Rebels "All scandals are ugly," Arthur Daley wrote at the time in as the closest thing to a normal activity in town. Betting on The New York Times, "but this college basketball scandal is UNLV not only is illegal, it is described by locals as immor- a particularly vicious one because it touches the presumably al, that rarest concept of all. A player who wandered onto untouched." Nobody would use that phrase today. the Strip would be reported to Tarkanian in a drum roll. Foul shots. The hit movie "GoodFellas," which recounts "We don't get the McDonald's or Parade All-Americas," he the bloody adventures of mob informer Henry Hill and his says, "but no program in the country has better kids." main informee, Jimmy "The Gent" Burke, neglects their While he may look like an outlaw actually, he looks sporting life. Only a passing reference mentions the games like an all-night poker Tarkanian is held in open they rigged at Boston College in 1979. Turning state's evi- esteem by fellow coaches. Even the rules sticklers, such dence in New York's fabled Lufthansa robbery, Hill provid- as Indiana's Bobby Knight, speak of him warmly and ed a calendar of his daily whereabouts to federal officers, with respect. "He belongs up there with the best coach- who were surprised by his devotion to the Eagles. Oh yeah, es," says retired UCLA wizard John Wooden, 81, the Hill explained brightly, those games were fixed. usual benchmark. An extra count against Burke, already well sentenced for Knight's 1976 team was the last to go undefeated (32- extortion, represented the prosecution's sole interest in BC 0). Wooden had four unbeaten teams in the course of 10 forward Rick Kuhn, a young man with old eyes who accept- championships. "If they win two years in a row," Wooden ed both cash and cocaine in return for manipulating the says with a twinkle, "that will be quite an accomplish- scores. He got 10 years. ment." UCLA won seven in a row. Almost nobody believed Kuhn was the only touchable Nolan Richardson, the Arkansas coach, was less re- player in the nation, or that the Boston College-Princeton strained last week when his second-ranked Razorbacks game was the solitary kind worth dumping. Sure enough, were throttled in their own gym by UNLV. "We played before long, Tulane was making similar headlines. "If a kid the second-best team in the NBA today," he said. He has can be paid to hit a shot," said old star Bob Cousy, referring an exaggerated opinion of the Portland Trail Blazers. U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991 63 NEWS YOU CAN USE Is the Bull Back? The Dow's breath-stopping 400-point climb began January 16, the day the war in the Persian Gulf broke out. It is hard to find a bear on Wall Street these days; most gurus think the run-up is no one-month fling. Here is a sampling of opinions and strategies from four bulls and a bear. STEVEN EINHORN 45 percent a month ago. Thirty to 35 Chief portfolio strategist percent should be in bonds, and any re- mainder should be in cash. GOLDMAN SACHS Einhorn also doesn't see the econo- Steven Einhorn's my resuming its growth until midsum- epiphany came at the mer, and the bounce-back won't neces- beginning of Febru- sarily be robust. So he favors stocks that ary, two weeks after can deliver strong earnings gains even the market began its in a slow recovery, and he continues to phenomenal rise. The spurn shares of cyclical companies like sharp drop in interest automobile, paper and chemical firms, rates engineered by which depend on a snappier rebound. the Federal Reserve Board in the weeks "Large, medium and small-company before convinced him that the central growth stocks will be the favorite theme bank really would do anything to rev up for this bull market," he asserts. the economy. "This is a stock market Drug stocks, while pricey, remain at- responding to a sudden extreme easing tractive to Einhorn, who names Merck, of monetary policy," he declares. Bristol-Myers Squibb and Abbott Labo- That doesn't mean Einhorn sees a line ratories. In the tobacco, food and con- pointing straight up. He expects a cor- sumer category, he picks Philip Morris, rection, but thinks it will amount to no Tambrands, Colgate-Palmolive and Gil- more than 5 to 7 percent, or 200 Dow lette. Specialty retailers include Wal- points at most, and should be seen as a Mart, the Gap, the Limited and Albert- correction within a major new bull mar- son's. In computers, he likes fast growing ket. "The single most attractive place to Compaq, Microsoft, Sun Microsystems put money now is in the stock market," and Automatic Data Processing. And in says Einhorn. He advises long-term in- the financial areas, he selects Fannie vestors to have 60 to 65 percent of their Mae, Freddie Mac, Sallie Mae and insur- portfolio assets in stocks, up from 40 to er American International Group. 64 PHOTO BY ALEX QUESADA MATRIX FOR USN&WR ILLUSTRATION BY ROB KEMP FOR USN&WR U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991 it for big profits when the auto business sidering their portfolio strategies due to recovers. Dana Corp. and Echlin are this analysis," Nakao says. auto-parts suppliers he likes. Chemicals In the near term, Nakao sees the Dow producer Monsanto and paper makers Jones industrials climbing as high as 3300 Scott and Kimberly-Clark are favorites within three months, falling back along because they will benefit from a recovery the way no more than 5 percent, or about but be reasonably priced compared with 150 points. "We are definitely not going other cyclicals. Big construction compa- to see the Dow drop back to the 2300s,' nies that he says should benefit when he states confidently. His current picks Kuwait and perhaps Iraq-are rebuilt include many of the market's recent top are Fluor, Foster Wheeler and Morrison performers, well-known names that typi- Knudsen, as well as oil-drilling-service cally appeal to Japanese investors. After companies Dresser and Halliburton. A an expected correction for the high-fly- continuing slump in the dollar to near- ing technology and biotechnology record lows should favor future export shares, Nakao recommends purchase of sales by U.S. capital-goods companies, Compaq Computer, Intel, Novell, and says Canelo. His selections: Caterpillar, Chiron in the biotechnology category. Ingersoll-Rand and Cooper Industries. Among cyclical stocks, he picks Alcoa, Canelo says he saw the advance com- International Paper and Dow Chemical. ing last November, when short- and long- term interest rates fell. "With the Dow ALFRED GOLDMAN then under 2500, stocks began to look Chief portfolio strategist like such bargains," he says. The market has just passed the halfway point in its A.G. EDWARDS move up, he believes. Further gains will "It's a mistake for in- come harder, but Canelo predicts the vestors to say, 'I Dow Jones industrial average will reach missed the rally' and 3200 in the next six to 12 months. leave it at that, says Alfred Goldman of SEIYU NAKAO A.G. Edwards, a St. Chief strategist Louis-based retail brokerage. After a NOMURA 500-point gain in the Dow since last Oc- Deterred by the con- tober, investors reentering the market tinued fall in the dol- may need to be more cautious, he con- lar against the yen, cedes, "but they should nonetheless err Japanese stock inves- on the buy side." Waiting for lower prices tors have largely before buying may prove frustrating, says PETER CANELO avoided U.S. shares Goldman, since prices rise in a bull mar- Chief investment strategist during the recent bull ket and stocks can stay overbought for run; a weakening dol- quite a while. But as some backtracking COUNTY NATWEST lar cuts down on their gains here. But invariably occurs, many of this year's big- Investors who haven't Seiyu Nakao of Nomura, the Japanese gest movers may become available at participated in the re- securities giant, has been very bullish on lower prices. Investors should be poised cent runup should U.S. stocks and feels the American mar- to buy shares they like at the first sign of "jump into stocks ket will outperform most others in 1991 price weakness. Goldman recommends with both feet," de- and perhaps over the next several years. three financial stocks-BankAmerica, clares Peter Canelo, Moreover, once the dollar bottoms, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac-as well who just moved to funds from Japan and from other foreign as Philip Morris, General Electric, Waste County NatWest, an countries could again move forcefully Management and Toys 'R' Us among the English-owned brokerage based in New into U.S. equities, providing more fuel blue-chip growth stocks. York, from Bear Stearns. He would for the current stock market advance. Even at current levels, says Goldman, avoid the pacesetters like computer and A new research report from Nomura some stocks remain good buys. He cites biotechnology stocks. And he feels that underlies Nakao's optimism. The report utilities, which just recently broke out of many blue-chip growth stocks are over- concludes that Japanese industry no a 15-month downtrend. Investors who priced and have less room to move longer is indomitable. U.S. manufactur- buy utility stocks, which because of their higher. "Having missed this initial move ers, according to the report, now com- high yields tend to go up in price as com- up, investors have no choice but to look pete in world markets more effectively peting bond yields decline, can expect for laggards," he asserts. than their Japanese counterparts and price appreciation of at least 8 percent Canelo parts company with Einhorn no longer lag in research and develop- over the coming year on top of annual on cyclical stocks. Car makers and their ment efforts that pump innovative dividends. Goldman suggests Wisconsin suppliers, capital-goods producers and products into those markets. Based on Energy, currently yielding 5.4 percent, brokerages are among the groups still these findings, the survey strongly urges and Commonwealth Edison at 7.8 per- catching up to the market and represent Japanese financial institutions to in- cent. Other stocks that have been over- good value, Canelo believes. The car crease their holdings of U.S. stocks over looked until recently and are still good company to buy, he says, is General Mo- the next five years. "Many Japanese in- deals, in his view, are United Technolo- tors: Its tough cost cutting has positioned stitutional investors are actively recon- gies, a diversified aerospace company; U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991 CANELO AND NAKAO PHOTOS BY ALEX QUESADA MATRIX FOR USN&WR, GOLDMAN PHOTO BY KEVIN HORAN FOR USN&WR 65 Is this your idea 5551221 2 Kenny's TOWING SERVICE If you're relying on another set of you'll find both power and efficiency wheels to get around, maybe it's time when you step on the gas. to place your trust in the Honda Civic An easy-shifting five-speed manual 4-Door Sedan. transmission puts you in touch with the People have been counting on the engine. Or if you prefer, a four-speed Civic for years. It's one of the reasons automatic is available that does the job Honda has been first in Import Owner just as well. Loyalty for 13 consecutive years: While you can't see the four-wheel Let's start with the nuts and bolts double wishbone suspension system, of the matter. There's a 16-valve single you can certainly feel it. The Civic overhead cam 4-cylinder engine. With Sedan's ride is smooth. The handling, a Programmed Fuel Injection system, responsive and stable. © 1990 American Honda Motor Co., Inc. *R.L. Polk & Co., Leading Import Sales Analysis, 1/90. of a second car? Hrs. The Civic 4-Door is as spacious It's the careful attention to all the as it is reliable. Room for five adults to details that makes the Civic 4-Door a stretch out. With large contoured front car as dependable as it is. And isn't that and rear seats, plush carpeting and rich the whole idea? cloth upholstery, this sedan is a very H N D A comfortable way to travel. Even the stylish body adds to your The Civic 4Door personal comfort. Wind noise is reduced by the aerodynamic profile. Interior acoustics are further hushed by the rigid construction, nearly flush window glass and triple door seals. NEWS YOU CAN USE investment concern managing about detectors, whose stock price jumped $135 million for wealthy clients, Perkins from $6 to $13 despite paltry earnings. Melville Corp., a specialty retailing doesn't figure on a complete recovery He does pick a few plums. Natural- chain; Time Warner, a media conglomer- for stocks until the economy regains gas stocks like Plains Petroleum and ate; Bob Evans Farms, a restaurant chain some pep. "The market believes that Wainoco Oil offer good value, Perkins that trades over the counter, and Com- the war is the major cause of the eco- says, since the stocks aren't directly tied merce Bancshares, a Kansas City-based nomic downturn and [that] the resolu- to the economy and because more folks bank holding company. tion of hostilities will cause an upturn. are expected to switch to the cheaper I don't buy that." fuel during the '90s. Perkins also sees MARC PERKINS In fact, Perkins figures the economy opportunities among thrifts, particular- Chairman could get worse before it gets better, ly Bankers Corp and Harmonia Ban- meaning stocks could plummet by 600 corp, a pair of New Jersey companies. PERKINS, SMITH or 700 points. "We're still paying the Another potential gem is Universal Marc Perkins is any- bill for the 1980s," he says. "You can't Health Realty Income Trust, a health- thing but persuaded buy a new car until you've corrected the care real-estate investment trust. Uni- that the recent surge debt on the old one." versal owns and leases out hospital in stock prices is a "The thinking man's stock picker," as properties. The specialized REIT sells sign of a nascent bull Barron's crowned him, is generally ad- for about $12 and offers a $1.48 divi- market. What inves- vising clients to sit this one out. "Right dend. But caution remains the order of tors have witnessed now we like liquidity," he says. Perkins business. "Our theory is that you don't instead, he says, is a is steering investors away from big "fa- have to be invested all the time," says temporary rally in a sticky bear market. vorite 50" stocks like Coca-Cola or Perkins. "Sometimes not losing money The chairman of the Tampa brokerage Philip Morris and is urging clients to be is a pretty good strategy." Perkins, Smith, who doubles as a princi- wary of war-related "story stocks." One pal at Private Capital Management, an example: Thermedics, a maker of bomb BY JACK EGAN AND EDWARD C. BAIG THE FEAR FACTOR cash sitting on the sidelines and a buying panic by big- time portfolio managers who worry they will look bad if A runaway market they finish the quarter underinvested in stocks. "The prime motivation driving this market right now is fear," states Robert Nurock, editor of the Advisory, a newsletter T he stock market's theme song these days is "Don't published in Paoli, Pa. "Given such tremendous pressure Worry, Be Happy." And why not? With the Dow and emotion, this rally could last longer, but that does not Jones industrial average up more than 400 points in a necessarily mean, as many analysts are forecasting, that month and broader indexes like the Standard & Poor's the market is heading for the stratosphere." 500 hitting all-time highs last week, Wall Street is natural- So if you haven't gone back into the market or you ly jubilant. Investors are racing for a pot of gold. feel underinvested in stocks, what do you do? You can But where's the rainbow? Too many of these new bull join the buying blitz out of fear. Or you can be patient converts refuse to face up to some genuine concerns. Not and wait for a future opportunity to purchase stocks the least of these is the steep slope of the market's upward when prices are lower. Nurock favors the latter: "Now is curve. Needle-nose climbs not only are hard to sustain but the time to stand aside and say, 'Prove it to me." By often come a cropper-in 1973, for example, stocks fell, waiting, you can better assess the economic outlook. briefly spiked higher and soon swooned again. "The market has not yet discounted the possibility More disturbing is the fragility of two assumptions be- that any recovery could prove to be subnormal," notes hind the surge: that the end of the Persian Gulf war will economist Henry Kaufman, the asset allocator for the restore consumer confidence and that the economy is new National Global Allocation Fund. poised to snap back from the USN&WR For investors who insist on pur- downturn. Even if fighting ends chasing stocks now, buying in in- soon, consumers probably won't Snappy rebound crements over the next few The Dow has climbed back nearly to last resume their free-spending ways. summer's high, and it's no fluke: Trading months is a good compromise. And little hard evidence supports a volume has remained strong. Given the highly uncertain pros- view that the economy is close to pects for the economy, Kaufman bottoming out. Retail, auto and 3000 suggests sticking to stocks of fi- home sales continue to slump. And Dow Jones industrial average 2900 nancially strong companies that daily announcements of new large 2800 are likely to report improved Jan. 16 layoffs, added to the already large 2700 earnings in the second half of rolls of unemployed, have yet to 1991, such as Philip Morris and 2600 ripple through the economy. American Express. 2500 Meanwhile, the Fed's attempt to There are risks in all of these restart the economy through lower 2400 approaches. But the biggest risk is interest rates has had no impact. 2300 acting too hastily by jumping on a J A S 0 N D J F Nevertheless, the decline in in- 1990 1991 recklessly speeding bandwagon. Note: Figures represent Friday closes except latest, terest rates has helped fuel the which is Feb. 14. rally, as have large amounts of BY JACK EGAN 68 PHOTO BY CLIFF McBRIDE COURTESY OF THE TAMPA TRIBUNE U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991 THE GULF WAR postpone scheduled court proceedings, terminate leases early, postpone month- When breadwinners ly payments on installment loans under certain circumstances and be protected against foreclosure if they fail to make mortgage payments. Detailed informa- go off to fight tion on the law is available from state and local bar associations, who also can provide free or low-cost legál help to military families who are battling credi- Congress is mulling over a stack of bills to tors. New provisions might include: Families whose monthly rent is $1,200 ease the financial burden on military families or less would be protected against evic- tion or harassment. The current cap, es- tablished after World War II, is $150 a M any reservists accustomed to ci- ance for families who choose not to join month. The government will not pay vilian salaries are sending the military health plan. the rent for families in arrears, but it home considerably leaner mili- A proposal now on the table to triple will see to it that they are not evicted. tary pay from the Middle East these days. military health-insurance deductibles, Soldiers paying off student loans could Pile on new costs, like suddenly heavier currently at $50 per person and $100 per suspend payments until after the war; child-care expenses, and many military family each year, would be postponed reservists who left classes in midsemester families can no longer keep the house- until the war ends. would be refunded their tuition. hold balance sheet in balance. Chief Some states have been more PETER MORGAN AP Warrant Officer Harry Lee of Ventura, zealous than the federal gov- Calif., for example, earned $3,800 a ernment in coming to reserv- month as a federal public-affairs officer ists' defense. Pennsylvania, for before he answered the call. Now he example, recently passed a law earns $3,400, and his wife, Dorothy, is requiring employers to cover working longer hours at a second job. all health-insurance costs for Even career soldiers, whose basic pay reservists and National Guard remains steady in war and peace, are members for 30 days after they being hit by added expenses, including are called to duty. This elimi- phone bills that often top $500 a month. nates gaps in medical coverage The pinch has been duly noted in while reservists are waiting for Washington. Enlisted men and women military health plans to kick in. needn't pay federal income tax on wages The governor's office in each earned since January 17, the day after the state can tell questioners war started; officers are exempt for the where to get information on first $500 of each month's salary. And all state-specific laws. service people in the gulf can divert up to Because the military typically $10,000 from their pay to special military alerts soldiers to new laws and savings plans that pay 10 percent interest, provisions through announce- about four points higher than most mon- ments in their pay envelopes, ey-market accounts. That is just the be- many families may have trouble ginning of a wave of relief legislation. keeping abreast of changes. More than 50 bills are pending in Con- Several service organizations is- gress that could shift even more money sue bulletins and newsletters and benefits directly to soldiers and their that track new laws. Member- families. Some could be passed as early as ship costs about $20 annually March, others will trickle along. Con- Long goodbye. Besides the personal anguish, many per group. They include: Re- gress watchers say the following propos- military families must face financial problems. serve Officers Association, One als are the most likely to succeed. Constitution Avenue, N.E., The government would pay a portion Washington, DC 20002, (202) 479-2200; Compensation of child-care costs. Non-Commissioned Officers Associa- Soldiers in combat zones would re- tion, 225 N. Washington Street, Alexan- ceive an increase in "imminent danger" Prewar debts dria, VA 22314, (703) 549-0311, and the pay from $110 to $150 a month. Saudi The Soldiers and Sailors Civil Relief National Military Family Association, Arabia is a combat zone; Germany, Act of 1940 already affords some pro- 6000 Stevenson Avenue, Suite 304, Alex- where many troops are serving, is not. tection against financial obligations left andria, VA 22304-3526, (703) 823-6632. The payment if a military person dies behind by those sent to the Persian Sometimes help comes without wait- in the gulf would double to $6,000. Gulf. For example, military personnel ing and red tape. When Dorothy Lee's Life-insurance benefits would double who can prove financial hardship relat- bankers heard her husband had been to $100,000. ed to the war may be eligible for a re- sent to the Persian Gulf, they wrapped duced interest rate of 6 percent annual- her car loan in a yellow ribbon-and Medical and child-care benefits ly on all pre-combat outstanding loans, eliminated her interest payments. The federal government would pay all including credit-card balances and or part of the expense of private insur- mortgages. The law also allows them to BY FRANCESCA LUNZER KRITZ U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991 69 TAX TIPS Laid off and taxed to boot The IRS has some nasty surprises in store for unsuspecting job hunters J ob hunting in a recession is stress- new employer. In some cases, part of a $100,000 in benefits vested in her 401(k) ful enough without adding a tax payout may be free of tax or penalty plan. If she leaves her job, her employer headache-yet that is what laid- because you contributed your own mon- will pay her the remaining $60,000 and off employees often face. You might ey to a plan but got no tax deductions. cancel the debt. She rolls the $60,000 figure, for example, that a check from a Before 401(k) plans became popular, over into an IRA or into another plan. profit-sharing plan would be the per- starting in the early 1980s, many people But as far as the IRS is concerned, she fect salve for a pink slip. But it might made such after-tax contributions. This has withdrawn the outstanding $40,000 instead mean a huge tax bill at a time part of a payout cannot be rolled over. from her retirement account. Unless when you can least afford it. Even peo- You can be sure of meeting the 60- she comes up with it within 60 days, she ple who voluntarily quit their jobs to day deadline by setting up a temporary will owe a possible penalty - take better ones can run into tax on it. One solution: Borrowing demons. Here are areas to watch the shortfall from a bank through for and moves to help you side- a home-equity loan or short-term step a tax ordeal. advance. Once you have redepos- Outplacement assistance. Em- ited the whole bundle in a new ployers often give laid-off workers employer's retirement plan, the counseling and other help in find- bank loan can be repaid with a ing new jobs. Leave it to the IRS loan against the retirement funds. to see that as a chance to collect Job-hunting bills. Whether you tax: A 1989 IRS ruling held the are laid off or just looking for a value of outplacement aid as tax- change, outlays for résumés, travel able income. Now the government and other job-hunting expenses is reconsidering. A new ruling lat- are deductible, SO long as you stay er this year is expected to general- in the same line of work. Making a ly make employment assistance switch from law to landscaping taxable only if it replaces other in- won't qualify. You can deduct 27.5 come-for instance, if part of a cents a mile for driving to inter- severance payment is traded for views or add up the actual costs, job counseling. For now, it is up to including depreciation on your car. employers to decide whether to Provided that a job search is the count the value of outplacement main reason for an out-of-town help in a worker's taxable pay. trip, you can deduct transportation A taxpayer who must include expenses, even if you do some the value of job counseling in total sightseeing or stop in to visit a rela- income does have one recourse: tive. Lodging and meals on the job- to deduct it at the same time, as a hunting portion of the trip are de- job-hunting expense. That's per- ductible. But write-offs for these mitted as long as the help is miscellaneous deductions are lim- geared to finding a new job in your pres- IRA to hold your payout until you find ited by your adjusted gross income. ent career. But the deduction is limited. a new job. Then you can transfer the Moving. When a new job takes you to Job-hunting expenses fall under miscel- money into the new employer's plan, another city, it pays to keep detailed rec- laneous itemized deductions, and only assuming the new plan allows such de- ords of deductible expenses such as the portion of total miscellaneous ex- posits. IRS rules require that the "con- moving bills and house-hunting trips. If penses that exceeds 2 percent of adjust- duit" IRA hold only the deposit from a new employer pays the bills, you must ed gross income is deductible. the first firm's payout. One strong rea- report such reimbursements as taxable Retirement accounts. When you leave son for moving funds from one employ- income. But all or most of this can be a job, a big check representing your bal- er plan to another is that balances in offset by claiming deductions for the ex- ance in a firm's retirement plan can seem company-sponsored plans often get penses. There's no limit on the deduc- a godsend - at first. The payment is gen- more favorable tax treatment at retire- tion for hiring a mover or for travel to erally taxable, and people under 55 face ment than do amounts held in IRAs. your new home; for other items, you an extra 10 percent tax penalty for early Loans. The right to borrow from a cannot claim more than $3,000. People withdrawal. Escaping a surprise tax isn't company retirement plan, using your who use the standard deduction instead difficult, however. Within 60 days, you account balance as collateral, is a popu- of itemizing get no job-move break from need to roll over taxable cash into anoth- lar feature of many programs. But bor- the IRS. But why expect the government er retirement plan, like an individual re- rowers who turn into ex-employees can to make things easy for you? tirement account at a bank or mutual face a financial squeeze. Take someone fund or a 401(k) plan offered by your who has borrowed $40,000 against the BY LEONARD WIENER 70 ILLUSTRATION BY MARC ROSENTHAL FOR USN&WR U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991 NEWS YOU CAN USE ADVICE FOR TRAVELERS CAR BARGAINS ORAL TYPHOID VACCINE VITAL STATISTICS CONTENDING WITH TIGHTER SECURITY. The advent of antiterrorism measures has complicat- ed travel plans, but some of the inconvenience can be finessed or skirted. Hotel guests, for ex- RICHARD -USN&WR ample, might rethink their arrival time. At Sheraton hotels, patrons who come hours before check-in can no longer leave luggage with a bellhop, though guests who check out early still can stow their belongings. Like airports, hotels are quick to impound unattended bags and may de- stroy them if no owner can be located promptly. Prominent identification on suitcases, handbags FOR and parcels will help security staff track you down if your bag is accidentally left in the lobby. SALE Air travelers will save time by keeping calculators, electric razors and other electronic gadgets in car- ry-on luggage. That way, they can easily be fished out if a security officer asks you to demonstrate them or dump out the batteries. If the items are in a suitcase you intend to check, you can declare them to the ticket agent, who will arrange for any inspection deemed necessary. An X-ray machine YOUR VERY OWN might otherwise spot the objects later, and you might be delayed by a request to unpack the bag. HOUSE Various privileges of air travel have vanished. Only ticketed passengers, for example, can now en- The percentage of U.S. households that own rather ter the boarding area. You will need to ask permission from the airline- preferably when you than rent slipped to 64 make the reservation - to escort onto the plane a child or disabled relative flying solo. Some car- percent in 1989, down riers may issue a pass; others may opt to assign a staffer to assist instead. Train passengers with from a 66 percent peak in a long layover should travel light. Many Amtrak stations have eliminated their storage lockers and 1980. Here's the range: check-in rooms, and you can no longer send suitcases ahead on an earlier train. Highest Ownership rate West Virginia 75% Maine 74% PUMPED-UP CAR REBATES. With sales plummeting nearly 30 percent last month compared Michigan 73% with January 1990, car makers' plans to halt customer rebates have reversed course. Chrysler Pennsylvania 73% has doubled its rebates- to $1,000 until March 31 on its 1991 Chrysler Imperials, Plymouth Mississippi 72% Acclaims, Dodge Spirits and New Yorker Fifth Avenues. Rebates on remaining 1989 and 1990 Lowest Chrysler minivans jumped from $1,000 to $1,500, and Chrysler is offering a free airbag or a District of Columbia 39% $500 cash rebate on 1991 minivans. But minivan buyers should note the February Consumer New York 52% Reports, which concluded that the electronically controlled automatic transmission on the mini- California 54% vans is "a lemon." Chrysler says the transmission, also used in its other vehicles, was rede- Nevada 54% signed for 1991 to fix the glitch. The car maker is offering to diagnose troublesome transmis- Hawaii 55% sions, even waiving the $100 deductible if warranty work is required. USN&WR-Basic data: U.S. Dept. of Commerce Other car companies are rolling out rebates. Analysts predict that Ford will announce new mon- ey-back deals to replace those that expire February 28. General Motors is offering rebates through April 7 from $300 to $1,500 on selected Chevrolets, $250 to $2,000 on some Buicks, $400 to $1,000 on some Pontiacs, $500 to $1,250 on some Oldsmobiles and $1,200 to $1,500 on certain Cadillacs. Honda and Toyota offer rebates only to dealers. Some pass the savings on, but it may take hard bargaining; in the current slump, dealers may be more inclined to use the money to pay their bills. BAD NEWS FOR TYPHOID MARY. A recently introduced oral vaccine for typhoid, which plagues WAKE UP, Boss parts of Africa, Asia and South America, eliminates the nausea, fever and painful swelling that Of 140 executives often follow the usual shot. But doctors have been slow to switch. To call attention to the vac- surveyed, 18 percent doze cine, which was approved by the Food and Drug Administration a year ago, the February 13 issue in dull meetings. The main of the Journal of the American Medical Association published an article noting the vaccine's min- tactics used to stay awake: imal side effects and its 51 to 77 percent effectiveness rate- the same as that of the injection. Write notes 61% The vaccine, Ty21a, distributed by Berna Products of Coral Gables, Fla., comes as capsules that Daydream 47% are taken every other day for seven days before the trip. The Centers for Disease Control Interna- Doodle 41% tional Travelers Hotline at (404) 332-4559 has information on typhoid-plagued locales. Because Read 19% neither vaccine is fully effective, travelers at risk should avoid milk products, water, and fresh Talk to a neighbor 11% fruits and vegetables. USN&WR-Basic data: Strategic Communications Compiled by Margaret Mannix BY MARC SILVER, SUSAN LINDAUER AND FRANCESCA LUNZER KRITZ U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991 71 EDITORIAL BY MORTIMER B. ZUCKERMAN EDITOR-IN-CHIEF THE PUBLIC OUTSMARTS TV W eren't you dazzled by the front-row seat in the Baghdad, given that the limitations imposed on their gulf war provided by TV? Symbolically, the reporter by Iraq make the material he submits only a very outbreak of the war was first revealed partial picture. CNN is in danger of serving as an unedit- not by an official announcement but rather by live TV ed platform for Iraqi propaganda, especially in the Arab from Baghdad. The spectacular visual fireworks of at- world. It is open to criticism here, as the former execu- tacking missiles and planes subjected to antiaircraft fire tive editor of The New York Times has pointed out. drew the whole nation into war. Since then, the detail Yet the fears of many that TV and the media would and speed with which the news is transmitted, the sheer overwhelm American public opinion have proved technical virtuosity of the networks, as they skipped groundless. Americans are not dummies and can make from Baghdad to Washington and from the White judgments fully independent of the media. Remember House to Saudi Arabia, have mesmerized the nation. how much press coverage, especially on TV, turned Through TV, we have learned strange new concepts hostile to the president's policies in the gulf in the two like precision bombing, destruction of months before the war? Many negative command centers and suppression of pieces viewed America as divided, un- air defenses. TV has let us connect with ready for battle, ready to collapse at the people suffering from Saddam 'Americans have the sight of body bags, some even sug- Hussein's terror - not only innocent ci- reacted as the gesting that the volunteer Army's vilians in Tel Aviv rushing to put on gas fighting spirit was suspect because sol- masks against incoming Scud missiles, media have long diers signed up for educational bene- but his own civilians whom he is in- asserted by fits and not for war. creasingly placing in harm's way. Most Americans didn't buy it. Fully Yet if television has triumphed for deciding on their 75 percent remained rock solid behind its images, it is also resented and even own whom to trust, the president and his policies. Any ero- distrusted for its ideology and self-ab- what to believe' sion from this level came not from op- sorption. The vast majority of Ameri- position to him but from those who felt cans disapproved of the media pres- he wasn't being tough enough. More sure on the military in the early days than 80 percent supported the air at- for more information to feed 24-hour tack, and the timing of the attack. Nor news coverage that seemed to de- was the American public naive about mand a new story every hour. Americans felt, correct- the time the war would take and the casualties that might ly, that they were receiving more information than in ensue. Americans, it turned out, understood all too well any other military engagement in our history and were the menace posed by Saddam Hussein. comfortable with the notion that military briefings had The president's demeanor proved much more effec- to be sketchy to avoid helping the enemy. They under- tive than media pundits (including this one) appreciated. stood that in an air war, direct physical access by the His stable manner, his calm sincerity, helped to persuade media network TV in the cockpit of a single-seat the country to support his diplomatic goals. Americans Stealth fighter? - is virtually impossible so information see the gulf policy being carried out intelligently and is difficult to acquire and more difficult to confirm. resolutely, with superb planning and execution, and with More recently, CNN's Peter Arnett has been attacked disciplined concern for casualties. Paradoxically, the for reporting from Baghdad by politicians like Sen. Alan military, through TV, developed a real alliance with the Simpson. This is especially cynical given the way Simp- public, whose confidence in the war has soared. son and four other senators cozied up to Saddam Hus- Americans have reacted as the media have long as- sein last year. Incredibly, Simpson told him that his serted - by deciding on their own whom to trust and problems were not with America, but with its "haughty what to believe. The media deserve kudos for extraor- and pampered press." CNN is right to report from Bagh- dinary coverage of the gulf war, but it is the American dad, but there is more to it. Its editors have a responsibil- public, demonstrating sophistication and indepen- ity, too. They do not have to air every minute from dence, that is the real star. 72 U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991 © Visa U.S.A. Inc. 1990 << CE A OF e D PERFORMA PERFORMANCE Bicycle Shop Chapel Hill, North Carolina. " and they don't take American Express." Performance Bicycle Shop, Chapel Hill. Sleek lines, sturdy con- structions-cycling's cutting edge. Where cycling goes into high gear. It's just one of the more than four million places around the world that accept Visa, but not American Express. VISA It's Everywhere You Want To Be. PREVIA Tell that to your kid. Chances are, in the Toyota Previa, it's an assigned seat he won't mind taking. Nor would his brothers and sisters, or Mom and Dad. Because the Previa seats a family of seven* com- fortably with plenty of breathing room in any seat. While walk-through center aisles make it easy for the entire clan to hop in and out. The Previa also has a load of acreage for skis, bicy- As you can see, the Previa was built with one objec- cles, or even a dog house. Just fold up the two rear seats tive in mind. Your family's comfort. and presto-instant wall-to-wall space. So the next time your kids tell you they need some Up front, the contoured instrument panel comple- space, give it to 'em. ments the unique interior design of the Previa. Its sculpted center console provides easy access to the "I love what you do for me." optional CD player-a nine-speaker system that assures superlative sound quality, wherever you sit. TOYOTA YOU ARE IN ROW 3, SEAT C. Call 1-800-GO-TOYOTA for a brochure and location of your nearest dealer. . Seven passenger seating includes third row split folding seats, standard on Previa LE models; optional on other Previa models. Shown with optional Cap- tains Chairs, available on Previa LE models only. Get More From Life Buckle Up! ©1990 Toyota Motor Sales, U.S.A., Inc.