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415892739
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[U.S. News and World Report, 2/25/91]
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415892739
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[U.S. News and World Report, 2/25/91]
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13900-008
collections
Records of the White House Office of Speechwriting (George H. W. Bush Administration)
Tony Snow Subject Files
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Originally Processed With FOIA(s):
FOIA Number:
S
FOIA
MARKER
This is not a textual record. This is used as an
administrative marker by the George Bush Presidential
Library Staff.
Record Group/Collection:
George H.W. Bush Presidential Records
Collection/Office of Origin:
Speechwriting, White House Office of
Series:
Snow, Tony, Files
Subseries:
Subject File, 1988-1993
OA/ID Number:
13900
Folder ID Number:
13900-008
Folder Title:
[U.S. News and World Report, 2/25/91]
Stack:
Row:
Section:
Shelf:
Position:
G
18
29
3
1
DESERT STORM
U.S.News
PLANS FOR AN
FEBRUARY 25, 1991
$2.50
ALLIED BLITZKRIEG
SADDAM'S
DESPERATE
HOURS
FACING A CRUSHING MILITARY DEFEAT, IRAQ'S
DICTATOR HOPES A POLITICAL OFFENSIVE
08
WILL SAVE HIS SKIN
02239
0
140066
3
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Test your knowledge
of the environment
1
The Clean Air Act
2
Renewable fuels-
3.
The United States pro-
Amendments of 1990
duces about a quarter
4
Most of the oil we use
using the power of
is imported. How
require great reduc-
water, wind, sun and
of the world's natural
much natural gas do
tions in the pollutants emit-
biomass-provide an oppor-
gas. At current rates of con-
we import?
ted in creating electricity
tunity to create electricity
sumption, at competitive
over the next few years. The
with lower pollution. Today,
prices, how long will it take
A) 50%
most economical way to cut
the contribution of "renew-
us to use up known
B) 35%
power plant pollution
ables" to electric generating
reserves?
quickly is to use:
C) 7%
capacity is:
A) 25 years
D) None
A) Coal
A) 1%
B) 40 years
B) Oil
B) 3%
C) 50 years
C) Natural gas
C) 10%
D) 200 years
D) Uranium
D) 25%
E) All of the above
pollution by changing the mix.
ral gas/cogeneration, in which
reports by the Colorado School of
Not only are many utilities
natural gas generates electricity,
Mines and the U.S. Department of
switching to low-sulphur coal,
and waste heat is used for indus-
Energy, total known domestic
they are exploring many other
trial purposes.
natural gas reserves, recoverable
technologies, including "cofiring"
at competitive prices, would last
with natural gas. Adding even a
2.
more than 50 years at current
small amount of natural gas to
annual production levels. But new
the fuel mix toward the end of
supply discoveries and new tech-
the "burn cycle" in coal-fired elec-
Answer: C. According to the Edi-
nologies for recovering natural
tric power plants, for example,
son Electric Institute, hydro-
gas, which become competitive as
creates much more complete, effi-
electric power alone contributes
the price of oil rises, give us rea-
cient combustion, and less pollut-
9.5% of the electric utility gener-
sonable supplies, at home, for at
ing emissions of nitrogen oxides,
ating capacity; solar and biomass
least the next 200 years.
sulphur dioxide and particulates.
combined provide .4% adding the
The cost is low: about 1% to 2% of
two together, we get almost 10%.
original plant costs, much
(Solar energy is currently more
cheaper than other pollution
economically feasible in direct
reduction technologies. One can
uses. Such as heating homes and
4.
1.
also produce electricity directly in
businesses, than in generating
natural gas-driven turbines, a
electricity.) Coal provides 55.6%;
Answer: C. Consistently, more
very clean technology. Because
natural gas 9.5%, oil 5.7% and
than 90 percent of our natural
Answer: E. It's not always eco-
natural gas is the cleanest-burn-
nuclear power 19%.
gas comes from U.S. sources. Last
nomically feasible to switch
ing fossil fuel, it can help improve
year, it was 93 percent. Virtually
immediately from coal or oil to
the quality of air and water,
low-polluting fuels. So we'll be
3.
all the rest comes from Canada.
whenever it substitutes for coal or
In an era of great concerns over
using a mix of fuels, including
oil. It can even "substitute" for
energy security, greater use of
coal and oil, for the near future.
uranium. A major nuclear power
Answer: C. But D has some truth
natural gas is one important
But there are many ways to cut
plant has been converted to natu-
in it, too. According to separate
answer.
There are no simple answers
but there are smart choices.
Watch for the American Gas Association "Discovery Now: Green Alerts" on The Discovery Channel
Everyone agrees we'll soon be needing more electricity. But there's little agreement on how to get it.
Especially with the environment at stake.
Hydropower is limited by geography. Nuclear
energy's problems continue to be debated. And the sun, the wind, the tides - they're all attractive,
but none is economically practical on a broad scale yet.
So, for at least the near future, we're
going to have to rely, for the most part, on fossil fuels.
But all fossil fuels are not created
equal. One is clearly best for the environment. And that's natural gas.
Natural gas
produces less carbon dioxide emissions, it produces no sulfur dioxide, and it creates
no particulates - the visible smoke you see. All of these are serious air pol-
lutants.
Further, because new high-efficiency, gas-
powered generating plants are relatively simple
to build, gas is also one of the quickest and
cheapest ways for producers of electricity to increase
their output.
è
In short, if natural gas didn't exist,
we'd have to invent it. As it is, nature has given us
vast resources of natural gas
right here in North America. It
just seems natural to use them.
© 1991 American Gas Association
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CNN
CHRISTOPHER MORRIS DOD POOL
U.S.News
FEBRUARY 25, 1991 VOL. 110 NO. 7
6 Letters to the Editor
OUTLOOK
10 God, man and war
12 Bad cops
German price tag
Sears catalog
Drug town
20 John Leo on quotas
21 Washington Whispers
THE GULF WAR
COVER STORY
22 Saddam Hussein's desperate
22
38
hours
29 The Soviet gambit
Casualties of conflict. Civilian victims of a
Preparing the ground. U.S. marines
30 After the gulf war: Potholes
U.S. raid on a Baghdad bunker brought Saddam
inspect an abandoned Iraqi tank and wonder
on the road to peace
32 Behind Israel's restraint
Hussein a momentary propaganda victory.
when a land war against Iraq will begin.
34 King Hussein on a tightrope
MARC ROSENTHAL FOR USN&WR
38 Preparing an allied blitzkrieg
44 Worldgram: Multiracial rule
in South Africa; bracing for
AMERICA
a Yugoslav breakup
SPECIAL REPORT
ED
45 Medal of Honor: Part IV
BUSINESS
49 Big-bank marriages
52 Henry Kaufman on how to
ONE
make banks safer
49
53 The economic cost of
Getting hitched. Bank marriages may be the
reforming South Africa
57 Economic Outlook: John
only way to save crumbling financial institutions.
Rutledge on higher interest
JEFFREY MacMILLAN USN&WR
rates
SCIENCE & SOCIETY
58 Environmentally sound
architecture
61 Preventing child abuse
62 Profile of James Webb
63 Tom Callahan on Jerry
Tarkanian
NEWS YOU CAN USE
64 Investing: Is the bull back?
69 The war: A helping hand
70 Tax tips: For job hunters
64
71 The Newsletter: Travel
advice; auto rebates; new oral
What's going on with the market? The
58
vaccine for typhoid fever
Dow went up more than 400 points in the
72 Editorial: The public
Out of ashes. William McDonough's Warsaw
past month. Bears on Wall Street are hard to
outsmarts TV
skyscraper will recycle rubble from World War II.
find. But does the rally amount to, well, bull?
ROB KEMP FOR USN&WR
COVER: Photo by Elfers-Army Times/DOD Pool Inset photo by Bill Gentile - DOD Pool
Copyright © 1991, by U.S.News & World Report, Inc. All rights reserved. S.News & World Report (ISSN 0041-5537) is published weekly, except for one combined issue mailed in August and a second combined issue mailed in December,
$39.75 per year, by U.S. .News & World Report, Inc., 2400 N Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20037-1196. Second Class postage paid at Washington, D.C., and at additional mailing offices. POSTMASTERS: Send address changes to U.S.News &
World Report, P.O. Box 55929, Boulder, CO 80322-5929. U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT© WORLD REPORT™ NEWS YOU CAN USE© WORLDGRAM© WASHINGTON WHISPERS® TOMORROW© Canadian Post International Publications Mail
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To order U.S. News, to change an address, or for subscription questions, write to the Subscription Department, P.O. Box 55929, Boulder, CO 80322-5929
N
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
5
Crunchy oats
LETTERS
in every
DAVID TURNLEY DETROIT FREE PRESS/BLACK STAR FOR USN&WR
of war have far departed from the root
of their faith. No war, especially this
one, is moral or just. George Bush and
bite.
his supporters are living in the Dark
Ages. Killing only breeds hatred and
more killing, not peace. There had to be
another way to remove Saddam Hus-
sein from power than all this death and
destruction. Christian ministers who
condone military action in the Persian
Gulf ought to be ashamed.
James Alexander
Forceful leader. Schwarzkopf at the helm
Peoria, Ariz.
A leader willing to gas his own peo-
The Bear at war: Thank you for profiling
ple, bomb civilian targets and poison
Gen. H. Norman Schwarzkopf ["The
the ocean for his own megalomania is
Bear," February 11]. He is, obviously,
unlikely to respond positively to eco-
the best thing to come out of the Viet-
nomic sanctions alone. Christian or, in-
nam War. It is a tragedy in American
deed, any ethics must take into account
military history that so few leaders have
the reality of evil. In dealing with the
had Schwarzkopfs combination of in-
likes of Saddam Hussein, history teach-
telligence, experience and heart. I am
es us that talking peace is not the same
grateful that he is leading our troops
as making peace. Clerics who would
and that our president and the chair-
guide others in this time of conflict owe
man of the Joint Chiefs of Staff have
their constituents and the Kuwaiti peo-
the understanding to allow him to do
ple evidence that they have truly count-
NATURE VALLEY.)
what he does so well-love his troops
ed the cost of pacifism as well as war,
and our country.
lest their ethical pronouncements seem
Donna Lovett
more politically expedient than pro-
Oats'n Honey
© 1990 General Mills, Inc.
Alexandria, Va.
phetically just.
Rev. William J. Keane
I am 81 and have yet to read a more
Storrs, Conn.
inspiring article than the one on Gener-
al Schwarzkopf. To know that our chil-
A few miles south of the city of Dhah-
dren have such leadership is beyond be-
ran in Saudi Arabia, a crescent-shaped
lief. What an immortal guy "the Bear"
peninsula hooks into the Persian Gulf.
is, and what incisive and detailed treat-
The bay thus formed is called Half
ment by your Joe Galloway!
Moon Bay and has great natural beauty.
Carlton Gladder
The sand is as fine and white as salt. The
Spokane, Wash.
warm water is blue green, clear and
teeming with life: colorful fish, turtles,
How sad that your article on "The
crabs. During my family's eight years in
Bear" not only referred to a well-known
Saudi Arabia, we spent many happy days
poem by a reputable poet, A. E. Hous-
on the bay. How very sad it is now to see
man, as a bit of verse "by an unknown
it threatened. The giant oil slick that
author" but then proceeded to mis-
reaches south into the Persian Gulf is
quote it, making nonsense of a poignant
the evil shadow of one man: Saddam
comment on youth and age. The last
Hussein. A political leader who willfully
two lines of the poem read: "Life, to be
destroys the environment is a danger to
sure, is nothing much to lose; But young
every living thing. No settlement which
men think it is, and we were young."
leaves him in power could be termed a
Hilary Andrade-Thompson
success. Any weapon necessary to re-
Hopkinton, Mass.
move him is justified.
Don Johnson
We regret the error. - The Editors
Hot Springs Village, Ark.
Concerning the article "Holy War
Nowhere does the insanity of war
Doctrines" [February 11]: Jesus said to
come through more graphically than
Nothing satisfies like the delicious taste
"love your enemies," not kill them!
when one listens to some of the questions
That doesn't mean love their actions,
reporters ask at the military briefings.
of honey and crunchy oats in Nature
but Christian theologians and evangeli-
James L. Moltz
Valley Oats 'n Honey Granola Bars.
cals who debate the morality and justice
Oil City, Pa.
6
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
Death's void: The conversation with
Philip Roth ["Facing a Father's Death,"
U.S.News
Crispy rice
February 11] expressed so completely
Founder: David Lawrence 1888-1973
my own hard-to-express feelings. My
Chairman and Editor-in-Chief
Mortimer B. Zuckerman
beloved father died within weeks of his
Co-Editors
in every
92nd birthday, with his family all near
Merrill McLoughlin Michael Ruby
him. Nevertheless, it has been unex-
Executive Editor
Deputy Editors
Peter W. Bernstein Christopher Ma, Cliff Hopkinson
pectedly difficult to accept the void it
Editor at Large David Gergen
Editor, Special Projects Mel Elfin
has left. We said goodbye, but I agree
Director of Editorial Administration Kathryn A. Bushkin
bite.
completely with Mr. Roth that "the ab-
Art Director Rob Covey
Photography Director Mark Godfrey
sence is now greater than the pres-
Assistant Managing Editors
Outlook, Brian Duffy; U.S. News, Harrison Rainie; World Report, John
ence." The actuality of death has been
Walcott; Business, William Meyers; Science & Society, Wray Herbert;
acknowledged, but the life of the de-
News You Can Use, Avery Comarow; Special Reports, Betsy Streisand
Gloria Borger, Jack Egan, Lewis Lord, Mary Lord, Gerson Yalowitz
ceased grows more vital with the pass-
Senior Writers
Michael Barone, Stephen Budiansky, Susan Dentzer, Joseph L. Galloway,
ing of time. Thank you for the solace of
Thomas Moore, Gerald Parshall, Steven V. Roberts, Lynn Rosellini
Chief of Correspondents Carey W. English
this one page of human love amidst all
Director of Research Elizabeth Mueller Gross
the pages of warfare and tribulation.
Director of Operations Karen S. Chevalier
Senior Editors: William F. Allman, Donald Baer, Robert F. Black, Beth Brophy,
Sarah C. Gallup
Jerry Buckley, William J. Cook, Charles Fenyvesi, Andrea Gabor, Ted Gest,
Erica E. Goode, Miriam Horn, Monroe W. Karmin, Anne McGrath, Robert J.
Latham, N.Y.
Morse, Susan Morse, Carla Anne Robbins, Alvin P. Sanoff, Michael Satchell,
Kenneth Sheets, Jeffery L. Sheler, Pamela Sherrid, Joanne Silberner, Douglas
Stanglin, James Wallace, Kenneth T. Walsh, David Whitman, Leonard Wiener,
Clemens P. Work.
Rights and responsibilities: John Leo's
Associate Editors: Bruce B. Auster, Edward C. Baig, Amy Bernstein, Don L.
Boroughs, Shannon Brownlee, Betsy Carpenter, Peter Cary, Steven Findlay,
analysis of the communitarian trend
Stephen J. Hedges, Art Levine, Louise Lief, Francesca Lunzer Kritz, Lisa J.
Moore, Doug Podolsky, Eva Pomice, James Popkin, Marjory Roberts, Amy
["Community and Personal Duty," Janu-
Saltzman, Joseph P. Shapiro, Marc Silver, Anne Kates Smith, Vic Sussman,
Terri Thompson, Jeannye Thornton, Thomas Toch, Jo Ann Tooley, Daniel P.
ary 28] documents a well-deserved back-
Wiener, Gordon Witkin.
Domestic Correspondents: New York, Scott Minerbrook; Atlanta, Matthew Coop-
lash against the irresponsible growth of
er; Chicago, Paul Glastris; Los Angeles, Mike Tharp.
Foreign Correspondents: London, Robin Knight, European Senior Editor; Middle
"rights talk" in America. Well deserved,
East, Richard Z. Chesnoff, Senior Correspondent; Paris, David Lawday; Moscow,
Jeff Trimble; Tokyo, Jim Impoco; Beijing, Susan V. Lawrence; Latin America,
but surely not well directed. The real
Linda Robinson (Miami).
Special Correspondents: Britain, Leslie Mandel-Viney; Israel, David Makovsky;
source of the rights imbalance is a failure
Egypt, Gordon R. Robison; South Africa, Jim Jones; Hong Kong, Eric Ransdell;
Thailand, Nick Cumming-Bruce; Brazil, Geri Smith; El Salvador, Tom Gibb; Cana-
to limit rights to those envisioned by
da, Bernard Simon; Germany, John Marks; Czechoslovakia, Peter S. Green.
Thomas Jefferson. These were essential-
Contributing Editors: Fouad Ajami, Timothy Garton Ash, Tom Callahan, Harold
Evans, James Fallows, Hirsh Goodman, Josef Joffe, John Keegan, John Leo,
ly negative rights, things no government
Emily MacFarquhar, Richard Perle, Henry Trewhitt, Ben J. Wattenberg.
Reporter-Researchers: Ann E. Andrews, Johanna V. Boublik (graphics), Sarah
or person could do to another.
Burke, Gary Cohen, Warren Cohen, Julie Corwin, Dorian Friedman, Sharon F.
Golden, Dana Hawkins, Constance Johnson, Susan Lindauer, Nancy Linnon,
Negative rights have been trampled of
Margaret Mannix, Muadi Mukenge, Douglas Pasternak, Elizabeth Pezzullo,
Joannie M. Schrof, Ted Slafsky.
late by a newer breed of rights, advocat-
NEWS DESK
Chief: David E. Pollard. Deputy Chief: Robert O. Grover. Senior News Editors:
ed by the American Civil Liberties
Edwin Albaugh, AI Ryan. News Editors: Elizabeth B. Brooke, Kenneth Campbell,
Susan Burlant Vavrick. Research: Kathleen Phillips, Chief: Richard Manhard,
Union and others, by which a person is
Richard J. Newman. Proof Desk: Judith A. Shapleigh, Chief: Jim Sweeney.
OPERATIONS
now said to have a legal claim to control
Technology Manager: Janie S. Price. Production Manager: Diane B. Snow.
Makeup Editor: Harriet Westfall. Systems Administrator: Leslee Bliss Kukie.
the property, contracts and associations
Composition Specialists: Tim Byers, Donald B. Gatling, Patti McCracken, Cyn-
thia A. Phelps. Special Projects Manager: Priscilla Totten. News Assistants:
of his or her fellows. But a simple call for
Myke Freeman, Chief; Howard R. Sewell, Jr.
ART STAFF
the assertion of more collective interests
Senior Art Director: Wayne N. Fitzpatrick. Graphics Director: Jeff Glick. Senior
Designer: Joan Strong. Section Designers: Socorro Q. González, Susan K.
will, paradoxically, only undermine the
Langholz, Sarah Shaw, Gary Visgaitis. Designers: Richard Gage, Kristine L.
Mehuron, David S. Merrill, Rebecca Pajak, Matt Zang. Art Production Coordina-
sense of community. Enduring commu-
tor: Sherri Roberts Lumpkin. Production Assistant: Leslie A. García. Graphics
© 1990 General Mills, Inc.
Lab: Tony Brown. Administrative Coordinator: Patricia J. Lute.
nity values are those arrived at freely
PHOTO STAFF
NATURE VALLEY®
Bran
Granola Bars
Associate Director: Cotton R. Coulson. Senior Editors: Richard Folkers, Cheryl A.
and voluntarily by individuals. The sad
Magazine. Editors: Marilyn Davids, Alice Gabriner (New York), Katherine Kay-
Mouat (Paris), Carol McKay, Dolores Morrison, Andrew Popper. Assistant
truth of history is that the enforcement
Editors: Shawn D'Sullivan (New York), Suzanne Révy, Jeanne M. Rhodes, Maria
A. Voles. Photographers: Chick Harrity, Chief; Eddie Adams, Charlie Archam-
of community, as opposed to individual,
bault, Torin Boyd, Linda L. Creighton, Darryl Heikes, Kevin Horan, Jeffrey
MacMillan. Photo Lab: Bill Auth, Chief: Beth A. Haggerty, Charles Moroney,
values by fiat destroys communities.
Charlene M. Spicer. Administration: Ann Roberts, Manager; Dave Murphy. Photo
Library: Robin J. Cook.
Freedom of contract, association and
LIBRARY
Director: Kathleen L. Trimble. Assistant Director: Kate Forsyth. New York Man-
property is essential to keep our other
ager: Jamie B. Russell. Reference: Anne Bradley, Kathleen Flynn, Carol Hook,
Penny E. Pendergrass, Brent Short. Newspapers: Judith A. Katzung, Lee Nev-
constitutional freedoms in balance.
ille, Bill Guiton, Guo Ping, Hilary Lord, Toni Ritucci. Index: Nancy Langford,
Nancy Bloomer. Technical Services: Rose M. Atkinson, Lynn Christopher, Peg-
Curtis L. Garner
gy Everheart, Benita Myers, Yvette Reyes.
NEWS SERVICES
Salt Lake City
Editorial Business Manager: Susan C. Riker. Manager, Administration: Cathy
Roberts Sweeney. Administrative Editors: Mary Jean Hopkins, Lynne Edwards,
Angela B. Taylor, Cornelia Carter, Dianna A. Pierce. Administrative Assistant:
Connie L. Zara. News Bureau Coordinators: Katherine T. Beddingfield, John J.
It's good to learn that a number of
Bresnahan, Jr., Greg Ferguson. Interviews Administrator: Ronald Wilson. Read-
er Service: Susan J. LeClair, Manager; Nick Merlino, Michael S. Ransom,
groups are now endeavoring to balance
Yvonne Samuels, Gil Weinreich.
individual-rights ideology by focusing
President and Chief Executive Officer
Fred Drasner
on responsibilities and the importance
Executive Vice President, William Harris
New!
of the community as a whole. Individual
Senior Vice President Finance, Alice Rogoff
Senior Vice President Marketing, Jake Winebaum
rights, pushed to the limit, can lead only
Vice President-Administration, David L. Helsel
Vice President Manufacturing, William E. Nussbaum
to the fragmentation of society.
Vice President Treasurer, Joseph G. NeCastro
Vice President -Circulation, Hilleary C. Hoskinson
Lydia C. Giglio
Vice President Retail Marketing, Michael P. Presto
Manufacturing Planning Director, Michael J. Armstrong
New York, N.Y.
Ad Make-up Director, Sharon R. Sullivan
Senior Vice President Publisher, Richard C. Thompson
Vice President Ad Sales Director, Thomas R. Evans
Vice President Sales, Mark MacDonald
Career change: In your article "Wooed by
Vice President Sales, Patrick K. Hagerty
Vice President Sales, William M.C. Miller
the Classroom" [February 4], you inter-
Assoc. Director- Sales, Dudley F. Wing
Try new Nature Valley Rice Bran Granola
Assoc. Director Sales, K. C. Forward
view several high-school teachers who
Associate Marketing Director, Deborah B. Farnham
Associate Marketing Director, Charles J. Barrett
Bars. You'll love the tempting taste of
left the corporate world to enter the
Research Director, Taylor Gray
General Counsel, Gail A. Lione Assoc. General Counsel, Marjorie L. Esterow
cinnamon graham in this crispy rice snack.
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
7
LINDA L. CREIGHTON USN&WR
LETTERS
ticket wholesalers, in part because of the
logistics and inability to control issuance
teaching profession through one of the
of the ticket, but most importantly be-
many "fast track" certification programs
cause each year some of them "go west"
now available at universities. For the
with $5 million to $10 million in undeliv-
most part, they bemoan student atti-
ered tickets. If you are going to suggest
tudes, apathy and lack of cooperation. It
this course to your readers, tell them to
makes me wonder: Do any of these hasti-
pay with a credit card to obtain some
ly prepared teachers look at their own
protection. In the case of hidden-city
teaching styles and strategies as possible
fares, there are now few agents crazy
causes of student problems? Or do they
enough to play with them. The majority
do what is easier blame the kids? Per-
of the domestic airlines have rewritten
haps one year is too short a time to learn
tariffs to make the travel agent responsi-
all they need to become successful. It
ble if the passenger deplanes in Pitts-
takes more than "knowing your stuff." It
burgh rather than in Hartford. Six
also involves knowing how to share it so
months later, the agent receives a bill for
that students will listen.
the fare difference and must pay it or
James R. Delisle
lose the right to issue tickets on that
Associate Professor, Gifted Education
airline. You also do not mention that
Kent State University
Into the classroom. Gerald Stancil quit
this method works only on a one-way trip
Kent, Ohio
a career as a chemist to teach physics.
because of a practice called "down-line
cancellation." When you "no show" for
Thank you for mentioning what is
the Pittsburgh-to-Hartford flight, return
wrong with the U.S. education system.
of kids who have no intention of learn-
reservations are canceled.
As David Greer said, "Nothing prepares
ing." Amassing years in front of the
Edward Vitello
you for how it feels to try to handle a
blackboard does not change the hope-
Faneuil Hall Travel Associates Inc.
classroom of kids who have no intention
less, helpless, frustrated feeling. It will be
Georgetown, Mass.
of learning." Anti-intellectualism is the
interesting to see how many "career
heart of the problem. To really change
switchers" remain in elementary or sec-
Assuming that regular air fares are
and improve education in this country,
ondary education for even half a decade.
based on the cost of providing air trans-
corporate career switchers, educators,
Frances L. Vogel
portation, who is going to pay this cost
parents and, most of all, children have to
Northport, Ala.
if everybody uses Tom Parsons's cute
deal with eliminating this attitude.
tricks for flying cheaply?
Jennifer C. Goodman
Cheap tricks: Only a "shop till you drop"
Earl Snader
New York, N.Y.
type is going to go through the convolut-
Waynesboro, Pa.
ed itinerary required to obtain that $292
Your article is filled with the reasons I
fare between New York and San Diego
Address letters for publication to Letters Editor,
switched out - low pay, few good job op-
cited in your story "Flying on the
U.S.News & World Report, 2400 N Street, N.W.,
portunities and few pats on the back. It is
Cheap" [February 4]. In addition, there
Washington, D.C. 20037-1196. Send letters by fax
really true that "nothing prepares you for
are a number of hidden traps involved.
to (202) 955-2685. Include full name, address and
how it feels to try to handle a classroom
Many travel agents will not deal with
daytime phone number. Letters may be edited.
ANDREW
CROSSTALK
His April 23 cover story
"Death at Sea," investigating
Behind the bylines
the explosion aboard the USS
Iowa, was recognized by the
Armed Forces Journal Interna-
ur correspondents in the
nonstop since the August 2 in-
tional as one of the best pieces
gulf may not have seen
vasion of Kuwait, is no strang-
of defense reporting in 1990.
1,001 Arabian nights, but their
er to the Middle East. He cov-
Readers on the home front
combined experience cover-
ered the Arab-Israeli war of
are not alone in benefiting
ing events in faraway places
1967 and has made many re-
from our coverage. U.S. News
far exceeds that total.
porting visits to the area in re-
In the gulf. Robbins at work
has been sending shipments of
For Senior Writer Joe Gal-
cent years.
the magazine to Saudi Arabia
loway, reporting on war is an
Senior Editor Carla Anne
on Mexico won an Overseas
via the Air Force ever since
all-too-familiar job. He spent
Robbins established the mag-
Press Club award. Her hus-
U.S. troops were dispatched
two years as a correspondent
azine's "bureau" in Saudi
band, who works for The
in August. We have been ship-
in Vietnam and covered other
Arabia and has spent nearly
Washington Post, is also cover-
ping up to 5,000 issues a
conflicts and rebellions in
four months there. A veteran
ing the war.
week - about 130,000 issues SO
Asia, including the India-Pa-
of Latin American coverage,
Our team also includes two
far, and we will continue to do
kistan War in 1971.
she has reported on drug wars
men with military experience.
SO as long as U.S. troops re-
Senior Correspondent
in Colombia, Peru and Bolivia
Mike Tharp served in Viet-
main on duty.
Richard Chesnoff, who has
and civil wars in El Salvador
nam with the Army, and Peter
been in the region almost
and Nicaragua. Her reporting
Cary is a former Navy officer.
THE EDITORS
8
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
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OUTLOOK
ONE WEEK
God and man in times of war
W
henever man is most ungodlike, he beseeches the
fight for peace." Soon, Bush set aside a national day of pray-
Lord for a little divine affirmation. Shortly before
er and declared the American-led coalition was "overwhelm-
Moses died, he told his Hebrew followers: "God
ingly on the side of God." And now, even as Radio Baghdad
will go with you to fight your enemy for you and give you the
airs peace proposals, Hussein and his advisers insist Iraq has
victory." Ever since, prophets and presidents have designat-
"triumphed because it upheld the spiritual principles and
ed the Deity as their principal ally when sending soldiers off
values emanating from its true religion."
to maim and slay others. In the gulf war, the charge to the al-
When politicians call the Lord as their witness, the first
tar started within hours of the first bombing raid. As tele-
temptation is to scoff. What king, after all, ever vowed to con-
casts showed Saddam Hussein unctuously bowing on a pray-
sign men to their deaths for an ignoble cause? It's no coinci-
er mat, George Bush intently listened to the Rev. Billy
dence that all sides in the gulf controversy, from Saudi King
Graham tell a prayer service at Fort Myer, Va.: "We must
Fahd to antiwar protesters in the United States, share the con-
10
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
ABBAS MAGNUM
viction that God is their corner man. Inevitably, such sudden
On the Lord's team. Saudi soldiers turn toward Mecca to pray
shows of zeal have the whiff of a foxhole conversion. Hussein,
during a break from their wartime duties in the desert.
who gassed his own countrymen and pillaged a near-defense-
less neighbor, is far from a model Muslim. And George Bush
has scrupulously avoided parading his "born again" Episcopa-
side a Baghdad bunker - all amidst golden sunsets and palms
lianism - until now. When Chinese autocrats slaughtered the
that sweetly rustle. Yet no one can be immune to the silent agi-
innocents of Tiananmen Square, Bush felt no divine obligation
tation that something humbling and horrible is transpiring.
to stop them or even to rescind China's favored trade status.
In previous eras, that trepidation and attendant search for
Still, behind the recent religious sallies lies a more genuine,
meaning were vented in daily church services. Now, when
if plaintive, spiritual stirring. Just like the prospect of a hang-
months and years seem clogged with the pursuit of condos,
ing, war - to paraphrase Samuel Johnson - concentrates a
cars and college tuitions, the presumption that life is a spiritual
man's mind wonderfully. It transforms the world into a kind of
quest has faded. War, ironically, revived that ageless calling,
madhouse where soldiers and civilians alike must rediscover
sending near-record numbers of Americans to pray at syna-
the purpose of their lives. Surreal TV newscasts now amplify
gogues and churches. Yet after the last mortar is fired, piety
this madhouse effect, showing just about everything except
and compassion will likely play only bit parts in the New World
battlefield carnage. Cormorants struggle to flap oil-tarred
Order. If truth is the first casualty of war, the last may be man's
wings and bloodied civilians lie motionless on stretchers out-
sputtering attempt to sanctify his world.
BY DAVID WHITMAN
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
11
CALENDAR
U.S. NEWS
Trivial pursuits
Whatever the news
COPS IN TROUBLE
of the gulf war may be, it's time for
fun and games-board games, that
In his entry in Who's Who in America, William Hart boasts that integrity helped
is. More than 100 new ones slated
him land the job of Detroit's top cop in 1976. Now the chief is facing a federal
for introduction to the marketplace
indictment accusing him and his former deputy of embezzling $2.6 million from a
this year are on display at the toy
police fund set up to buy drugs and pay informants. Hart,
LENNOX McLENDON AP
industry's annual trade show in New
who denies guilt, is one of the most prominent law officers
York City through February 20. Toy
caught up in a parade of charges that cops have suc-
sales were generally flat last year,
cumbed to lawbreaking, especially in drug investigations.
but board games- which traditional-
Two ex-Miami officers are now on trial for allegedly
ly fare well during recessionary
stealing narcotics from dealers; two others admitted guilt
times- made a strong showing.
last month. Six Los Angeles County sheriff's deputies were
While children's games led the in-
found guilty in December of pocketing traffickers' profits
dustry, nearly 20 percent of the
that they had seized during raids. And last week, a grand
country's $1.2 billion board-game
jury charged that two officers had helped in a drug-sales
sales were to adults. Few manufac-
network in New Jersey. Several scandal-plagued depart-
Busted. Chief Hart
turers are pitching toys connected
ments are shoring up internal controls to prevent repeat
with the war, but two new war
episodes, but experts worry that police executives harried by public pressure to cut
games A Line in the Sand, and
street crime are paying too little heed to reforms.
Arabian Nightmare: Desert Storm -
are due to be on sale by late Febru-
CHILDREN OF MILITARY PARENTS
ary. On March 7, at the Game Man-
ufacturers Association's annual
There is a rising chorus of concern about the children from 17,500 families who
trade show in Las Vegas, executives
have seen one or both parents who usually provide their principal care sent to the
from leading game companies will
gulf war. That concern has led members of Congress and others to urge Defense
give advice to would-be inventors on
Secretary Dick Cheney to reconsider current policy. As it now stands, single parents
designing new games.
or couples with children are not exempt from being shipped to combat zones.
Legislation has been introduced in Congress to change that, exempting at least one
parent from being assigned away from children. "We shouldn't be pushing mothers
to leave small children," says T. Berry Brazelton, Boston pediatrician and author of
"Infants and Mothers." For now, though, the Defense Department claims it would
be a serious mistake to yank military fathers and mothers out of the war zone.
DATABASE
A NEW HIGHWAY PLAN
Top-selling children's board game in
Thirty-five years and $129 billion after the federal government set up its interstate
1990: Monopoly Jr.; family game: Mo-
highway system, the Bush administration has sent Congress a transportation plan
nopoly; adult: Scattergories
that will dramatically change the nation's roadways. The five-year, $105 billion plan
Households in the United States
boosts highway funding 39 percent but shifts a greater cost burden to state and local
with a Monopoly set: 95%; sets sold
governments. In return, local governments will get more latitude over how best to
since 1935: 120 million
meet their highway needs. And perhaps the most far-reaching change is the creation
of a new National Highway System that will include current interstates and 100,000
Game buyers who are female: 84%
miles of other existing road that, together, will receive the bulk of federal funds.
Languages that Dungeons & Drag-
Critics include governors wor-
EVERETT JOHNSON FOLIO
ons has been translated into: 13;
ried about their own budgetary
players worldwide: 9 million
woes and mass transit advocates
Of 80 word and strategy games re-
who claim the plan shortchanges
viewed, top mind games judged by
alternative transportation. But,
Mensa (organization for people with
by shifting emphasis from new
high IQs): Taboo, TriBond, Abalone,
construction to repairs, the plan
Scattergories, Trivial Pursuit
will likely provide more help for
Americans who play chess at least
crumbling roads and bridges.
once a year: 10%
Although the debate over de-
Board games relating to war on the
tails will be intense, Congress
market last year: 200
will probably pass the plan be-
fore late September, when the
BY Jo ANN TOOLEY
current program expires.
Pathbreaking. Working on an interstate highway
12
USN&WR: DATABASE SOURCES NPD RESEARCH GROUP; AMERICAN MENSA LTD.; U.S. CHESS FEDERATION;
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
GAME MANUFACTURERS ASSOCIATION; COMPANY REPORTS: ILLUSTRATION: RICHARD GAGE USN&WR
WORLD
Just
THE FATE OF CHINESE DEMOCRACY
The prospects for a renewal of China's democracy movement are slim, especially
Published
now that the last of 42 activists tried in connection with the Tiananmen uprising have
been sentenced to prison. In time for the Lunar New Year, the Communist
MICHEL PORRO AFP
government has sentenced Chen Ziming
U.S.News
and Wang Juntao to 13 years in prison
STYLEBOOK
for allegedly masterminding the 1989
EDITORS
protests. The punishment for the two
intellectuals, who used their indepen-
dent think tank to promote political re-
form, was the harshest meted out to any
of the Tiananmen leaders.
The Chinese government has tried to
take advantage of the worldwide focus
on the Persian Gulf to end its dissident
woes quietly. Indeed, lighter sentences
Stylebook for
Hong Kong. Petition for Chinese reform
given to better-known activists may have
Writers
been intended to take heat off the gov-
ernment. But the severity of the final sentences promises continued difficulties
between China and the West. In the United States, human-rights questions could
and Editors
affect a review that will last until April of China's most-favored-nation status.
Although the Chinese government has released some imprisoned activists, hun-
U.S.News & World Report has just published
the sixth edition of its Stylebook for Writers
dreds of pro-democracy workers remain in jail. Exiled dissidents, many of whom are
and Editors and is proud to offer it for sale to
in the United States and France, have been told they can return to China without
the public.
fear of prosecution if they promise never to protest against the government again.
Few will accept those terms. So at least until leader Deng Xiaoping dies, any
This authoritative and completely revised
resurgent democracy movement will probably have to develop outside, not inside
reference edition is wirebound SO that it can
China.
be used with ease. It is arranged
alphabetically to provide quick and direct
assistance, whether it is how to use
A SKY-HIGH PRICE FOR GERMAN UNITY
punctuation marks, when to capitalize or
when and how to abbreviate. The new edition
A newly calculated bill for German unification of up to $1 trillion in the next
also addresses the fine points of grammar and
decade is higher than almost anyone expected. In eastern Germany, huge numbers
highlights words and phrases that are
of businesses are collapsing, and cities such as Dresden are nearly bankrupt. By
frequently misused.
midsummer, nearly 3 million people in the east may be unemployed.
The U.S. News stylebook, which is available
And the worst may be yet to come. Eastern Germans are likely to go on spending
only by mail, will improve your use of the
much of their money in western Germany, while the Soviet market, once the great
language, and U.S. News will donate a portion
hope for eastern-German exports, is expected to continue its decline. Given the
of the proceeds from sales to a literacy
east's difficulties, economists now predict that barely 20 percent of eastern Germa-
program.
ny's industry will be intact by 1992.
Chancellor Helmut Kohl will give
For your copy, send check or money order for
$3.4 billion in immediate emèr-
$12.40 ($9.95 plus $2.45 for shipping and
CONGRATULATIONS
handling to continental U.S. addresses) to:
gency aid to the east. The
We ARe NOW JOINED
decision is seen, in part,
AT THe WALLeT.
STYLEBOOK
as an effort to quell
U.S.News & World Report
growing anger over his
2400 N Street, N.W.
decision to give $10.6
Washington, DC 20037-1196
billion to the gulf war.
Allow 3-4 weeks for delivery.
Beyond that, Kohl's
move shows that his
initial unification re-
covery plan, which hinged
W.GERMANY
E.GERMANY
AUTHORS WANTED BY
on foreign and domestic in-
NEW YORK PUBLISHER
vestment in the east and on the
Leading subsidy book publisher seeks manuscripts
opening of new Eastern Euro-
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Send for free, illustrated 32-page brochure S69
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U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
ROGERS/THE PITTSBURGH PRESS UNITED FEATURE SYNDICATE
PROFILE
BUSINESS
WISH BOOK
PRICE WARS AMONG AIRLINES
For 104 years, the Sears catalog
Another outbreak of fare wars may leave wreckage among the nation's struggling
has been America's "wish book,"
airlines. Already operating under bankruptcy protection, Pan American World
bringing the general store into mil-
Airways could be the big loser in the battle that has forced it and several others to offer
lions of living rooms. But the
cut-rate tickets on many routes in
world's largest retailer has fallen on
the United States and Europe.
hard times, announcing a 37 percent
With higher fuel costs and de-
drop in fourth-quarter earnings and
clining numbers of passengers,
33,000 layoffs. The bad news fuels
the new fares are expected to
rumors, which Sears denies, that it
increase the industry's woes.
may do away with its catalog.
For both Pan Am and Trans
For years, many rural homes had
World Airlines, also in dire
two books: the
SEARS,
ROEBUCK
straits, a lot depends on the Brit-
HOUSE
Bible and the
ish government. It has held up
Sears catalog. In
the proposed sale of the two
THE C.E.O. HAS TURNED ON THE BANKRUPTCY SIGN PLEASE FASTEN
YOUR SEATBELTS WHILE WE ATTEMPT TO RETURN THE AIRLINE
CONSUMERS
the 1880s, Rich-
companies' London routes until
TO THE UPRIGHT POSITION.."
GUIDE
ard Sears, a rail-
the United States lifts restrictions barring foreign carriers from flying passengers
road agent,
between major American cities. The ruckus has caused Transportation Secretary
joined with a
Samuel Skinner to halt British Airways' effort to offer its own cheaper London fares.
watchmaker
Meanwhile, the Justice Department has new concerns that the few remaining healthy
named Alvah
competitors could become too dominant. Last week, the department's antitrust
An 1896 catalog
Roebuck to
division announced its opposition to United Airlines' plans to buy the defunct
launch a mail-or-
Eastern Airlines' slots at Washington National Airport.
der business. During its heyday, the
"big book" contained 1,500 pages,
COMPETITION FOR CELLULAR TELEPHONES
weighed 6 pounds and reached 20
million people. A lifeline to the hin-
Competition in the red-hot cellular-telephone industry is about to get a lot hotter.
terlands, it offered 100,000 products,
In a breakthrough decision, the Federal Communications Commission has changed
from coffee to corsets; from Sooth-
the rules that currently allow only two companies to operate cellular services in each
ing Syrup, a children's opium-based
city. The change will permit firms that now provide mobile communications for auto
cough remedy, to the Giant Power
fleets to offer more or less the same service as cellular companies. By adding a third
Heidelberg Electric Belt-said to
competitor, the FCC hopes the cost of cellular service will decline.
relieve almost every abdominal dis-
tress imaginable. Sears can even say
it helped build America, and not
MONEY CLIP
just with hammers and saws. By
1927, more than 35,000 people had
constructed "Honor Bilt" kit homes,
complete with paint and cupboards.
Retail sales, ac-
PERCENTAGE
2%
Decline in U.S. auto
With most Americans living in ur-
counting for a third
CHANGE SALES
sales, early February
ban areas by 1920, mail-order shop-
of the nation's total
1990 to early Febru-
1
ping began to give way to retail
economic activity,
ary 1991: 23.5%
are in a funk.
stores. Today, the catalog, with $4
Decline in gas sta-
billion in sales, still has higher reve-
Decline in retail
tion sales in January
nues than any other mail-order busi-
sales from January
1991: 2.3%
ness. But it has been unprofitable
1990 to January
Average price of a
-1
1991: 1.4% (first
gallon of unleaded
for two years, as Sears has lost
year-over-year de-
1991
gasoline in January
ground to specialty catalogs and dis-
cline since 1961)
1990
1991: $1.23
count retailers. The "Farmer's Bi-
1989
Note: Figures
Total liabilities of
are
seasonaily
adjusted
July 1990: $1.05
ble," as it was called, is losing the
change from previous month.
Carter Hawley Hale
USN&WR-Basic data: U.S. Dept. of Commerce
January 1991 de-
game it helped to create. If the cat-
Stores, now in Chap-
cline in industrial
alog winds up being shut down or
ter 11: $1.38 billion
RETAIL IN THE ROUGH
production: 0.4%
sold, America could lose a mass-
Other retailers to
A decline in retail sales
(fourth straight
market link to its rustic past.
default on debt in
was spurred by a sharp dive
monthly decline,
1991: Best Products,
in sales of automobiles.
the longest decline
BY AMY BERNSTEIN
Peebles, Hills
since 1982)
14
SEARS, ROEBUCK & CO.; WALT HANDELSMAN/THE TIMES-PICAYUNE - TRIBUNE MEDIA SERVICES
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
Listen to your heart.
are
IS
HEALTHY FAT* LOW CHOICE LOW 310
Make the Healthy Choice®
LOW
Now Healthy Choice® has more dinner choices. Imaginative new
meals like tangy Mesquite Chicken and Yankee Pot Roast.
Made with quality ingredients to be deliciously satisfying. More
Healthy Choices. But still, only one Healthy Choice.
DINNER
BRAND DINNERS
FAT
SODIUM
CHOLESTEROL
(Line Averages)
(% of calories)
(mg)
(mg)
Healthy Choice®
12
385
48
Le Menu®
39
985
N/A
Le Menu® LightStyle
23
732
58
Budget Gourmet®
41
1044
81
DISPATCHES
DATELINE
POOR LITTLE, RICH LITTLE DRUG TOWN
U.S. News's Peter Cary recently
ROMA, TEXAS - Dustblown, downbeat and halfway destitute, this hamlet of 4,500 is
wrote a letter home from Saudi
an economic basket case in the nation's poorest county. Annual per capita income
Arabia, where he is covering the
for the 40,000 residents of Starr County in the Lower Rio Grande Valley was $4,313
gulf war. Some excerpts:
in 1989. Dryland agriculture - citrus, cattle - is marginal, and there is little
industry. The main business district is a time-warp jumble of peeling 1950s-era
T
he big news is the Hunt for
storefronts and frontier Western ghost-town facades. In 1989, the local unemploy-
the Renegades, a small num-
ment rate rose to a Depression-era high of 45 percent. At a quick glance, Roma is
ber of photographers trying to
the archetype of a broken-down, tumbleweed Tex-Mex border town: sunbleached,
cover the war outside the press
sleepy, impoverished.
pools. They bypass roadblocks in
But stick around and look closer. Luxury vehicles cruise up and down the
rented white Toyotas and Land
washboard gravel streets. Lavish homes-from English Tudor-style mansions to
Rovers. The military is on the look-
turreted French faux châteaux- tower over unpainted cinderblock shacks with
out. The Alabama National Guard
backyard privies. Land along
DAVID WOO THE DALLAS MORNING NEWS
captured, blindfolded and held one
US 83, the county's main
overnight for interrogation. "Who's
commercial strip, sells for up
the governor of New York?" they
to $80,000 an acre-tenfold
asked. He was carrying an expired
the value that residents here
New York driver's license, which
might otherwise regard as
made the Guard plenty 'spicious.
fair. One 55-mile section con-
The punishment is unclear, but we
tains count conve-
hear threats of being kicked out of
nience-food stores, far more
the country. Some punishment- like
than such a seemingly hard-
that for soldiers in Vietnam. "What
up area can logically support.
are you going to do, send me to
Bank deposits in 1989, flat al-
Vietnam?" was the standard line.
most everywhere else in Tex-
The main problem here is that
as, grew 52 percent in Starr
there's nothing to do unless you're
County.
Bashful. DEA agent and prisoner
one of the 120 reporters out on
Welcome to Roma, the
pools. The rest, who roam the JIB
Richest Little Poor Town in Texas, a place where $5 will buy you a belly-bustin' meal
(Joint Information Bureau), are
of barbecued cabrito and $500, a pair of hand-tooled ostrich-skin Tony Lama boots.
called JIBLETS. They meddle and
The bizarre extremes of poverty and wealth are attributable to drug money. With the
schmooze endlessly in a vast, churn-
current crackdown in south Florida, roughly one third of the marijuana and cocaine
ing sea of misinformation. The
entering the United States now comes across this short strip of South Texas border
worst press scene is in Dhahran,
that's as porous as cheesecloth.
where hundreds wait but few are
Smuggling in both directions across the waist-deep Rio Grande has been an
chosen for pools. Those with Land
integral part of the warp and weft of Starr County since frontier times. This tradition
Rovers drive in the desert to get
bred, until recently, a widespread nod-and-wink tolerance for trafficking. Even
them dusty. Some people even
though most residents were not involved in illegal activities, the money stimulated
smear their cars with mud. All this
the local economy.
makes it look like you've been
While gun shops, furniture dealers, expensive clothing stores, jewelers and auto
somewhere, when you haven't. A re-
dealers profit from the free-spending contrabandistas, the drug dollars have badly
porters' joke: What do you call a
skewed the rest of the local economy. Owners of legitimate businesses cannot
rental car? An all-terrain vehicle.
compete with price undercutting by cash-laundering retail fronts. Dope profits used
Shopping is all bored Americans
to purchase acreage at excessive prices have inflated land values, frozen out honest
do. There are hundreds of stores
developers and raised real-estate taxes.
selling TVs, boomboxes and watch-
Now, many of Roma's honest business owners are eager to wean the town's
es. GIs wander dazed through the
economy from the illegal money, and there are modest signs of change. Juan Muñoz,
malls, confronted by equally dazed
35, owner of a flourishing seed, feed and veterinary-supply business, acknowledges
clerks. Everyone shops; hardly any-
that drug dollars have been spent in his store. But he would like to see every last
one buys. Shop till you drop - liter-
doper driven out of Starr County. Says Muñoz: "The feds are finally beginning to
ally, if there is a gas attack. Most of
hurt the drug mafiosi. When they get wiped out, what are we gonna do with $80,000
us aren't carrying our masks. We
an acre lots? I'm looking forward to when we go back to basics, have to work twice as
may be overconfident, but at least
hard and drive Chevrolets again. Roma will be a better place."
we're getting sleep. Lots of sleep.
Wish you were here.
BY MICHAEL SATCHELL
16
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
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The new Mazda Navajo. A four-wheeler SO
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ENTERPRISE
PEOPLE
RISKY BUSINESS
ZORA NEALE HURSTON and LANGSTON HUGHES,
two leading lights of American literature, collaborated
When the Soviet Union's prime
on a play that they hoped would hit Broadway and
minister accused the West of trying
radically alter theatrical depictions of the ways black
to spark an economic coup of his
Americans lived and spoke. But the two writers quar-
country, he was also deepening an as-
reled over the folk comedy, and their close friendship
sault on home-grown capitalists such
foundered, as did plans for producing their play. Now "Mule Bone" has finally
as Artyem Tarasov. Moscow's first
opened on Broadway - more than 60 years after it was written.
official millionaire, the 40-year-old
Tarasov has led the charge for mar-
DOUGLAS HANN has a good reason to watch what he says from now
ket reforms. Now he and other wan-
on. The Brown University junior is believed to be the first student ever
nabe capitalists are in full retreat.
expelled from college for violating "hate speech" regulations. On his
SOVFOTO
An inventor and
21st birthday last October, the football player stood inebriated in a
trader, Tarasov built
dormitory courtyard and shouted racial, ethnic and antihomosexual
the economic dyna-
slurs. Hann, a Pittsburgh native, had been punished for a similar
mo Istok by swap-
incident when he was a freshman. Controversial antiharassment codes have recently
ping materials such
been instituted at several other major universities.
as wood and fertiliz-
er for high-tech
JIM BAKKER, founder of the defunct PTL Network, may see his
goods. But for Tara-
prayers answered - of. Although a Virginia-based federal appeals
sov, who is also a
court upheld the televangelist's 1989 conviction for fleecing his follow-
Russian parliamen-
ers, the panel said Judge Robert Potter's religious beliefs improperly
Tarasov
tarian, the good
influenced him when he dealt Bakker a 45-year prison term. Spear-
times ended last month shortly after
heading Bakker's appeal was Alan Dershowitz, the Harvard law
he accused Mikhail Gorbachev of se-
professor known as "the lawyer of last resort." Bakker's attorneys have asked that he
cretly agreeing to sell Japan the Ku-
be released from his Minnesota prison cell while he awaits resentencing.
ril Islands, which the Soviets seized
at the end of World War II. That's
GARY SHEPHERD, thirtysomething, died last week in a tragic high-
when government agents raided Tar-
way pileup. The shaggy-haired, infrequently employed English profes-
asov's offices, and now they want to
sor is survived by an unpleasant wife and a daughter, a friend named
charge him with the new crime of in-
Nancy Weston, who has been suffering from cancer, and a bevy of
sulting Gorbachev. But Tarasov's
comrades on ABC's "thirtysomething" television show. (Peter Horton,
bigger problem may come from in-
the actor who played Shepherd, will continue to direct some episodes.)
vestigations of his enterprises. Pro-
tests by liberals aside, he could well
MARK TWAIN wrote and rewrote "The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn." But
have tripped in the maze of inten-
scholars have long been stymied because half of the manuscript was lost, seemingly
tionally vague Soviet trade laws that
to the ages. That changed when 665 heavily annotated pages turned up in a
bar business practices regarded as
California attic, revealing a gold mine. The pages vary widely from published texts
acceptable in the West.
and include one long section that has probably not been seen in more than a century.
Other businessmen face deeper
THE GRANGER COLLECTION
DAVID KARP-AP
problems; many of them have been
accused of moving scarce resources
Twice
onto black markets, thus improving
profitability. And many entrepre-
neurs fear they will face the fate of
the kulaks who profited under Le-
nin's economic liberalization, only to
wind up in Siberia, or worse, under
Stalin. Hard-liners regard Tarasov
and his ilk as "malignant tumors" on
society. That's a far cry from the role
as the heart and soul of a revitalized
Soviet economy that these entrepre-
neurs expected to play only a few
months ago.
BY JEFF TRIMBLE
Treasure trove. Twain's original manuscript has been discovered.
18
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U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
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ON SOCIETY
BY JOHN LEO
The menace of quota-think
A
curious story from a friend who follows New York
blacks buy one third of theater tickets, they deserve one
City politics closely: Three municipal employees,
third of important industry jobs and control of one third
all white males, recently decided not to attend an
of all movies. (How would this quota principle apply to
important committee meeting because their attendance
the basketball industry, which has predominately white
would skew the racial balance in the room. This is the
ticket buyers and predominately black jobholders?)
quota mentality, the dominant mind-set these days on ra-
Quota-thinking seems to be invading the criminal-jus-
cial and sexual matters. Better to skip work than to pre-
tice system as well. The statistical argument that a dispro-
sent an ethnically flawed group profile.
portionate number of blacks suffer the death penalty is a
A group of militant female artists, seized by this mental-
valid one. Many courts have been guilty of a double stan-
ity, is accusing the Metropolitan Museum of Art of being
dard. But the argument has an unstated corollary: that if
sexist because 95 percent of the paintings in the museum
arrest and conviction rates for blacks are unusually high,
are by males, whereas 85 percent of the nude statues are
that too must be the result of prejudice. This has slipped
female. Alas, there is no male-female
into casual conversation among
balance in the history of art, but muse-
some analysts as "the crimi-
ums nowadays should presumably
nalizing" of young black
fashion one for past eras anyway,
males, as if the higher
a sort of retroactive affirmative
crime rate is something
action. The best way out would
society imposes and
obviously be for the Met to
not an obvious result of
discover several hundred an-
something criminals
cient male nude statues, all su-
do. The same hidden
perbly wrought by hitherto un-
quota can be unearthed
known female artists.
behind many of the plans
By law, all textbooks used in
to prosecute parents for
California public schools must ap-
the behavior of their chil-
ply this sort of retro-quota in his-
dren. They are controver-
tory, art and science: Contributions of males
BONNIE TIMMONS FOR USN&WR
sial and perhaps unwise
and females must be presented in equal num-
plans, but are usually op-
bers. For reasons beyond the control of Califor-
posed by the American Civil Liberties Union on
nia, perhaps 95 percent of achieving artists and
the ground that poor people are likely to be
scientists have been male. Most of us regret this
disproportionately prosecuted. That appar-
exclusion of females. California just erases it and
ently means that for every poor mother of a
tells its children a high-minded historical whopper.
violent gang member you arrest you must in fairness pick up
Gulf inequities. The best current example of the quota
a rich gang mother.
mentality in action is the flap over the number of black
In politics, candidates more frankly promise job quotas
soldiers in the Persian Gulf war. Blacks account for 12
by sex and race. Dianne Feinstein, in her campaign for
percent of the American population and over 24 percent of
governor of California, promised to hire women and minor-
American troops. If you are a quota hard-liner, all you must
ities in direct proportion to their population in the state.
do to demonstrate unfairness is point out that 24 is a
That is approximately what her successful opponent, Pete
distinctly higher number than 12. But why is it unfair? This is
Wilson, promised when he was mayor of San Diego, and
a volunteer Army, and the training and benefits the Army
what New York Mayor David Dinkins is promising now.
offers (along with the risk of getting shot) will obviously
This sounds benign - in a perfect world each job category
appeal more strongly to those on the way up economically
should have diverse workers- but in effect it sets up a
and those striving to escape mean streets at home. Some of
system of group entitlement at the expense of merit. A
those arguing now that blacks are being exploited in the gulf
fraction of Indian blood has become very valuable under
action are precisely the people who argued for years that
quota plans. That may be one of the reasons the number of
the armed forces should open up more to minorities and
Americans listing themselves as Native Americans has tri-
become instruments for social equality. Now that this has
pled since 1960. Quotas also mean firing people if their
been done, the objectors have flip-flopped. And if the Army
group numbers get too high. By strict quota-thinking, that
announced tomorrow that it would accept a 12 percent
should happen to blacks now in Compton, Calif., which is
quota of blacks, and no more, wouldn't the objectors flip
turning from a mostly black to a black and Latino city.
once again and complain about racial exclusion?
Latinos hold fewer than 10 percent of the city jobs and
Quota-thinking has become reflexive, even outside the
account for 30 percent of the population. Must black job-
normal parameters of the affirmative-action debate. Op-
holders clear out, simply because the town's ethnic mix is
eration PUSH's campaign against Nike boils down to the
changing, or is that something that voting and the give and
argument that since blacks buy so many sneakers they
take of politics can take care of better than quotas?
should proportionately share, as a group, in Nike profits.
Enough. Quota-thinking is a social menace. Let's be
The same argument has surfaced in Hollywood: Since
done with it before it poisons our politics.
20
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
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WASHINGTON WHISPERS
be making a great mistake if he
thought we were distracted by the
gulf. On the contrary, there is special
Western vigilance at present."
AS BAKER slips, Bush takes charge of gulf diplomacy
Polls apart. U.S. News has learned
that a private poll taken in the Moscow
CUOMO leads, Jackson trails in Democratic fund-raising
area shows greater support there for the
U.S.-led coalition in the Persian Gulf
JOSEPH KENNEDY II: He's no Jack Kennedy
than for Moscow's crackdown in the
Baltics. Almost 40 percent of the Soviet
TAYLOR JONES FOR USN&WR
respondents approved using force
Cooling off. As White House insid-
against Saddam Hussein. In sharp
ers see it, the first signs of friction
contrast, 80 percent said Moscow
have begun to appear in the profes-
should not use military force under any
sional partnership between President
circumstances in the Baltics, and 61
Bush and Secretary of State James
percent agreed that Estonia, Latvia
Baker. According to the sources-
and Lithuania should be independent.
who have an obvious interest in
downgrading the diplomatic role of
the secretary of state - Bush has told
Dollars for Democrats. With its first-
advisers that in order to exercise
in-the-nation caucuses one year
closer personal supervision of post-
away, the Iowa political front remains
war planning for the gulf, he wants
eerily quiet. At the same time, how-
control of Mideast policy centralized
ever, potential Democratic candi-
at the White House, a desire made
dates are continuing to fill campaign
more relevant by Iraq's condition-
war chests. Here are the latest totals
laden offer last week to withdraw
from the Federal Election Commis-
from Kuwait. Bush is also said to feel
sion: New York Gov. Mario Cuomo,
he can best monitor policy decisions
$3.8 million; Georgia Sen. Sam
through National Security Adviser
Nunn, $1.6 million; Tennessee Sen.
Brent Scowcroft, an unassuming
Al Gore, $708,000; Senate Majority
team player who works down the
Leader George Mitchell, $491,000;
hall, rather than Baker, whose office
French President François Mitterrand
House Majority Leader Richard
is some dozen blocks away in Foggy
Front-line forces, backdoor diplomacy
Gephardt, $193,000; and 1988 veep
Bottom and who, the sources con-
nominee Lloyd Bentsen, $148,000.
tend, has a penchant for "self-pro-
The Rev. Jesse Jackson has raised
motion." As one example, they cite
Obsession in Paris. To counter U.S.
$712 not enough to buy even a few
Baker's role in the embarrassing an-
postwar dominance in the gulf, France
seconds of advertising on his syndi-
nouncement - a few minutes before
is knitting together a curious alliance
cated TV show.
Bush's State of the Union message -
with Iran and the Soviet Union. That,
of a joint U.S.-Soviet statement im-
say well-connected sources in Paris, is
plying a softening of Washington's
the meaning of high-level French visits
Rage and regret. Rep. Joseph Kenne-
stance on negotiating with Iraq. That
this month to Tehran and Moscow and
dy II is not endearing himself to Capi-
upstaged the President's speech and
of a phone call from President Fran-
tol Hill colleagues, even fellow liberals.
later forced him to deny there had
çois Mitterrand to his Iranian counter-
The 38-year-old son of Robert Kennedy
been any change in U.S. policy. In
part, Hashemi Rafsanjani. Even as
has been forced to write letters apolo-
addition, Bush is said to feel that the
elite French troops are poised on the
gizing for his behavior during a strategy
war and the tenuous situation in the
Saudi front, Mitterrand works through
session of Democrats opposed to the
Soviet Union may have overbur-
backdoor diplomacy to assure France
use of force in the gulf. Sources say that
dened his old friend and that Baker's
a key role in the postwar Mideast.
during the meeting-held a few days
talents and experience could be most
before the the Massachusetts
efficiently employed by allowing him
third-termer lashed out at those who
to focus primarily on relations be-
Parallel thoughts. Unlike the
failed to support his proposal to ban
tween Washington and Moscow. Fi-
French, the British continue to view
military action against Iraq for at least
nally, the president believes his
the world in close parallel with the
a year, and he implied that his fellow
evolving relationships with political
United States. Assessing the Soviet
doves were only motivated by a desire
leaders in the Mideast are made-to-
crisis, for example, one high-ranking
to get their names in the papers - a de-
order for top-level personal diploma-
London insider explains: "There's no
sire, colleagues say, not unknown to
cy. Calling the report "trash," Assis-
point in abandoning Gorbachev if by
Kennedy himself.
tant Secretary of State Margaret
doing SO we hasten repression and vi-
Tutwiler attributed it to "a disgrun-
olence. It's a matter of estimating
tled staffer stirring the pot."
how best to help. Gorbachev would
EDITED BY CHARLES FENYVESI
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
21
Saddam Hussein's mil-
THE GULF WAR
itary fantasies ended
last week, but his bid
for victory continued.
With his military forces
nearly crushed, morale
DESERT
crumbling and his ene-
Desperate
STORM
mies poised to launch a
ferocious land and air
attack, the embattled Iraqi leader
launched a desperate campaign to cap-
ture at the peace table what he has been
denied on the battlefield. In his two-
front sally — the dissemination of heart-
gambits
wrenching pictures of civilians killed in
the U.S. bombing of a Baghdad bunker
and the announcement of a peace of-
fer - Hussein tried to save the remnants
of his Army and his own skin. "He feels
As his troops flee and his remaining force faces
destruction, Saddam Hussein broadcasts new
IRAQI TV
peace feelers and gruesome TV images to save his
skin. Will his ploys poison the postwar world?
the noose tightening," says Bard O'Neill
shock - the ground assault — and the en-
is stirring few minds outside the Muslim
of the National War College.
tire Iraqi Army will collapse," the source
world. Americans barely blinked at Hus-
Hussein's gambits could fail entirely.
said. And the allied ground strategy is
sein's gestures, continuing to rally be-
President Bush denounced them as a
poised to deliver just such a blow: a swift,
hind one of the most popular wars in the
"cruel hoax" and prepared to push to-
devastating attack on an Iraqi weak spot
nation's history. Nonetheless, Hussein's
ward a final resolution of the Persian
that allied commanders hope will crack
gambits graphically illustrate what U.S.
Gulf war. Allied bombing runs at Iraq's
Hussein's forces the way a diamond cut-
officials have recognized from the begin-
troops in Kuwait intensified and wreaked
ter cuts a diamond, with a single bold
ning: The gulf conflict is two different
major new damage on his war machine.
stroke (Page 38).
wars being played on different battle-
One knowledgeable military source said
Just as important, Bush has mobilized
fields. Washington has always been con-
that at week's end tens of thousands of
most of world opinion solidly behind the
Iraqi soldiers were scurrying north, away
war, SO that Hussein's bid for sympathy
TOP ROW (LEFT TO RIGHT): AFP; CNN; CNN; AFP; AFP; ABC; CNN; CNN; CNN; AFP;
CNN; AFP; CNN; CBS; TV PHOTO BY JEFFREY MacMILLAN - USN&WR
from the impending allied onslaught. He
said the Pentagon's claims that about one
third of Iraq's ground armaments had
been destroyed was too low - that the
Iraqi ТУ
WAS
true "degradation" wreaked by allied
bombers on Iraqi tanks and artillery had
Bernard
hit 50 percent. "All it will take now is one
Shaw
04
4
THE GULF WAR
called the 19th province of Iraq - is proof
that Hussein knows his days are num-
fident that it could wipe out Hussein's
bered. But the peace bid seemed clearly
Desert Storm
military machine. What has worried it
designed for public-relations purposes,
TURKEY
more is whether he, as martyr, could win
rather than for serious bargaining, be-
WEEK 5
the hearts and minds of other people
cause it contained new conditions for the
and thus secure a political victory. He
allies to meet before Hussein would with-
recently has achieved some success on
draw from Kuwait, including a demand
Incirlik
Peace plan
the streets of the Middle East, and per-
that the allies forgive the estimated $90
haps in the Kremlin, and now Washing-
billion in debt Iraq owes.
Iraq struggled last week
to alter or delay the
ton and its allies are working hard to
U.S. officials made it clear they would
allied military campaign
close off his final escape.
continue the air war until there is real
by unveiling a "peace
Analysts say the nub of Hussein's
evidence Hussein is serious. The best way
initiative," but U.S.
strategy is to stall his foes' military ef-
to persuade him to keep moving toward
officials said this will not
Mediterranean
hinder their war plans
forts and divide the coalition. His pro-
peace is to keep destroying his tanks, they
Sea
paganda war is based on promoting two
argued. A cease-fire, say some observers,
contradictory images: a ruthless warrior
should also include a provision that it
Scud launches
and a victim. Hussein the "warrior"
must hold on all battlefields and that
Total against Israel: 32
wants to frighten the West and thrill the
terrorism outside the Kuwaiti theater of
1st week: 13
Arab world with his brutal power.
operations linked to Iraq will constitute a
2nd week: 13
That's why he showcased tortured pris-
violation of the cease-fire.
3rd week: 4
LEBANON
4th week: 2
oners of war and hostages on television.
What distresses the Bush administra-
5th week:
0
Hussein the "victim" strives for the
tion is that the number of apparent will-
Damascus
As of February 15
PETER DeJCNG DOD POOL
ing accomplices to Hus-
Haifa
sein's tactics might be
growing. White House
ISRAEL
aides are concerned about
the ambiguous role Soviet
Tel
Aviv
diplomats began to play
JORDAN
last week, as they moved
to become mediators and
Jerusalem
Amman
ensure their country a
place at the peace table
(Page 30). And some Bush
Bombing the bunkers
allies worried that the rup-
The command and control center in Baghdad
ture in relations with Jor-
that was destroyed with two laser-guided
dan would greatly compli-
bombs by U.S. F-117 bombers last week was
cate the search for peace
apparently being used by civilians as a bomb
shelter. The facility was constructed in the early
between the Israelis and
1980s and converted to a hardened command
the Palestinians.
and control center, further fortified in the late
Even if Hussein were to
1980s with protection against electromagnetic
Kuwait-bound. A howitzer heads for the final drive.
sweeten his withdrawal of-
pulses in case of a nuclear attack, according to
the Pentagon
fer to meet most of the
more classical propagandist's goal of
United Nations resolutions, it is not
bringing enmity to his enemies by
clear that Washington would accept it.
Tigris
stressing the damage they are inflicting.
As the war has progressed, Bush has
River
"Forget how horrible he is." Hussein
seemingly adopted two unstated goals
clearly is unconcerned about the hypoc-
that stretch beyond U.N. mandates.
Saddam City
risy that lies behind these contradictory
One has been largely achieved through
images. "He wants to hold up a mirror
air strikes: the decimation of Iraq's ca-
to the eyes of the West to show how
pacity to wage war against its neigh-
horrible they are and to forget how hor-
bors. The other is to force Hussein's
DEFENSE
Bunker
MINISTRY
rible he is," says Haifa University Prof.
departure from power-preferably by a
bombing
Baghdad
Amatzia Bar'am, author of a book on
coup in Baghdad. A cease-fire that
raid
Saddam Hussein. The devilish irony of
leaves him in place would create prob-
AL RASHID
HOTEL
it is that the very success of American
lems for Bush.
PRESIDENTIAL
Patriot missiles in knocking out Hus-
To win support at home and from oth-
COMPOUND
sein's Scud attacks on Saudi Arabia and
er Muslims, Hussein is publicly arguing
Israel before they can kill many civilians
what he probably believes himself: Ku-
hinders the United States in the image
wait is only an excuse. The Americans
UNIVERSITY OF
BAGHDAD
wars. There are few gruesome pictures
want to subjugate the Iraqi nation be-
to show of Hussein's evil intent.
cause Iraq is the torchbearer of Arab
On the diplomatic side, stalling is his
liberation and the only nation to keep
SCALE OF MILES
motive. Defense analysts believe that in
Israel in check. Allied bombing of
0
1
2
3
4
5
10
his late-week offer, Hussein's willingness
bridges, government ministries and oil
to backtrack on his pledge never to relin-
refineries inside Iraq supports his charge
100
200
quish Kuwait - land he has repeatedly
that this is not a war about liberating
24
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
Bad moon rising
In the weeks ahead, several
moonless nights will provide
Diyarbakir
allied forces with an increased
military advantage. Advanced
night-vision equipment gives
the coalition forces an edge,
and high tides offer
amphibious teams easier
access to the Kuwaiti coast
Mosul
Tehran
MOONLESS NIGHT
SYRIA
Irbil
An allied assault is most likely to
Scud attacks
occur when the moon sets before
midnight and rises after 5 a.m.,
Kirkuk
Y
Iraq launched Scud
providing maximum darkness
missiles toward Hafar al
HIGHER TIDES
Tigris
Batin from positions north
Tide marks indicate high tide at
WEATHER EXTREMES
River
of Baghdad last week for
Kuwait City during the night,
the first time since the
providing the best chance of a
Temp.
Wind
Baghdad
start of the war. U.S.
successful amphibious landing
(F°)
(max)
Tikrit
combat aircraft, however,
IRAN
RELIGIOUS HOLIDAYS
February:
84/25
50 mph
March:
88/30
55 mph
Samarra
still managed to destroy
Adherents of Islam fast daily
at least six Iraqi Scud
during the month of Ramadan,
Obstruction to visibility.
launchers
putting a severe strain on their
February: 20 days
ability to engage in war
March:
18 days
Moonless Moon Higher
February
night
phase
tides
Al Rutba
Baghdad
17 Sun
Jordan-Baghdad
18 Mon
Highway
G
19 Tues
a
Karbala
WEATHER EXTREMES
20 Wed
Kuwait
21 Thur
Temp.
Wind
City
(F°)
(max)
22 Fri Holy day
Najaf
Amarah
February: 88/30 66 mph
23 Sat
March: 102/33 60 mph
24 Sun
IRAQ
Obstruction to visibility:
25 Mon
More than
Euphrates
February: 16 days
26 Tues
River
70,000 air
March:
18 days
27 Wed
Tapline
sorties in first
Road
28 Thur
30 days of
Operation
March
Desert
Basra
1 Fri Holy day
Storm
2 Sat
3 Sun
Hijarah
4 Mon
Rafha
Desert
Persian
Gulf
5
Tues
door pollop
KUWAIT
Kuwait
6 Wed
Neutral
City
7
Thur
8 Fri Holy day
9 Sat
Khafji
10 Sun
SAUDI
11 Mon
ARABIA
Hafar al
12 Tues
Scud launches
Batin
13 Wed
U.S.
Total against
Marines
14 Thur
Saudi Arabia:
32
15 Fri Holy day
WEATHER EXTREMES
1st week:
22
16 Sat
2nd week:
5
Hafar
Temp.
Wind
Jubayl
17
Sun
Islamic
3rd week:
0
al Batin
(F
(max)
18 Mon month of
G
4th week:
5
February:
88/30
53 mph
March:
19 Tues Ramadan
G
5th week:
0*
100/32 42 mph
Dhahran
20 Wed
G
* As of February 15
Obstruction to visibility:
21 Thur
February: 9 days
March:
11 days
22 Fn
G
Key
A dress rehearsal
23 Sat
24 Sun
Muslim holy site
Coalition forces last week pounded
25 Mon
Iraqi positions in southern Kuwait
26 Tues
Iraqi troops
Riyadh
with artillery, naval gunfire and air
27 Wed
strikes that included the dropping of
Allied troops
fuel-air explosives and 15,000-lb.
28 Thur
"daisy cutter" bombs in order to
29 Fri
Air base
clear a path through Iraqi laid mine-
30 Sat
15
fields for allied ground troops
31 Sun Easter
USN&WR Basic data: National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration; U.S. Depts. of
500
SCALE OF MILES
Agriculture and Defense
DAVID S. MERRILL & MATT ZANG-USN&WR
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
25
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THE GULF WAR
a credible case that the bunker had been
cables the Iraqi leaders use to communi-
established as part of Hussein's complex
cate with battlefield commanders.
Kuwait but about dismantling Iraq and
military command and control network
The danger of backlash against the
establishing U.S.-Israeli hegemony in
and had recently been activated because
United States is not great unless anoth-
the gulf. This sets up his likely claim — as
of the damage allied bombing caused to
er catastrophe strikes. However, in the
he is forced out of Kuwait - that he still
other Iraqi military targets. The officials
larger battle for hearts and minds, the
"wins" if he stays in power in Iraq.
said target planners were unaware that
Baghdad bombing showed how signifi-
There is growing evidence, though,
civilians used the facility. But the words
cant the U.S. disadvantage is for the
that the Iraqi people aren't buying Hus-
of the briefers paled in comparison with
time being-if only because Hussein
sein's arguments. Western peace activ-
the horrific televised pictures. Those im-
now controls the pictures. Western re-
ists recently in Iraq have told U.S. de-
ages sparked strong condemnation, in
porters can see and broadcast only what
fense officials that more and more
part because they helped ground uneasi-
he allows from Iraq; none has been per-
Iraqis see Hussein as the source of the
ness in some countries that the number
mitted into Kuwait, where many atroc-
agony the country is enduring. Reports
of allied bombing sorties which passed
ities reportedly have occurred.
also suggest that his broadcasts of great
72,000 last week was excessive. After
Liberating Kuwait City. The American
military victories are increasingly greet-
several minutes of graphic footage on the
goal is to deny Hussein a martyr's mantle.
ed with cynicism by the Iraqis. That sit-
night of the bombing, German television
Once Kuwait is freed, officials believe,
DARRYL HEIKES
the United States will regain the upper
hand in the propaganda war. "There will
be two dominant images beamed around
the world the day Kuwait City is liberat-
ed," predicted one administration offi-
cial. "The first is jubilant Kuwaitis greet-
ing their own troops, marching arm in
arm with other Arab liberators while
Americans lend a helping hand. The sec-
ond will be Kuwait's version of the Bagh-
dad bombing - the first good look at the
rape of Kuwait. And the pictures will be
just as awful." A Pentagon team is also
gathering evidence to support war-
crimes charges. Some administration of-
ficials are pushing for war-crimes trials,
using a precedent established at the Nazi
trials in Nuremberg under which com-
manders, including those prosecuting a
war, can be charged with the crimes com-
mitted by their troops if they were part of
military policy.
In the theaters of public opinion that
matter most to Bush for prosecuting the
war - America, Europe, Japan and key
segments of the Arab world-support
Time to go. Bush, Defense Secretary Cheney and General Powell plan the ground war.
for the Persian Gulf effort is surprisingly
strong. Simply put, Bush has managed to
uation prompted one U.S. military ana-
recalled for its viewers that the carnage
avoid the mistakes that turned the
lyst to argue that continued bombing of
coincided with the 46th anniversary of
American public against the wars in Ko-
military targets in Baghdad would have
the Allied blitz against Dresden. Coali-
rea and Vietnam. Peter Braestrup, who
a substantial political impact.
tion member Spain called for an end to
has written extensively on Vietnam, says
Still, the road ahead is not necessarily
the U.S. bombing of Iraqi cities.
that, unlike Lyndon Johnson, Bush has
easy for the Bush administration, if only
The most immediate response to the
built support for his gulf policy by laying
because Hussein has more capacity to
outcry over the bunker bombing will be
out the problem clearly, declaring a set
use propaganda and diplomatic weapons
its effect on U.S. military policy. How,
of unambiguous goals and then legiti-
than he ever had to wield military weap-
planners pondered, do you maintain
mizing his action by obtaining the ap-
ons. In fact, he scored his first and, per-
public support while fighting an enemy
proval of both the United Nations and
haps, only "victory" of the war last week
that is increasingly placing military
Congress. As Braestrup and others point
when two laser-guided bombs dropped
equipment in civilian areas? The answer
out, Bush has also been luckier than
by an F-117A Stealth fighter smashed
was to avoid the possibility of a propa-
Johnson in his choice of enemies. Sad-
through the roof of a bunker in Baghdad
ganda loss by keeping targets off the list
dam Hussein is no Ho Chi Minh.
and killed as many as 300, many of them
if there was any threat of civilian casual-
As decisive as any other factor in
civilians. The fearsome televised images
ty a decision made easier because of
building public support for the war-
of burned children and charred remains
the destruction already visited on Iraq's
and by far the biggest surprise has
loosed a barrage of questions: If Ameri-
military. Sources say fears about civilian
been the domination of the media by the
cans and their bombs were so "smart,"
casualties have prompted target plan-
Bush administration. Until now, the
how could this slaughter of innocents
ners to rule out hitting two bridges over
President has treated public relations as
have happened?
the Tigris River that lead out of Bagh-
a subject that decent people don't talk
American briefers scrambled to make
dad to Kuwait, even though they carry
about. After chafing for eight years
28
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
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through the heavy scripting of Ronald
Reagan and then of his own presidential
TILTING TOWARD IRAQ?
campaign, Bush threw out all the han-
dlers when he went to the White House.
What Bush and company didn't throw
The Soviet Union angles
out, however, was one of Reagan's old
playbooks: the press plan for the invasion
of Grenada in 1983, when the military
for a larger role in the gulf
kept the media away from the battle for
W
hen he meets this week
72 hours. Bush applied that same model
They are especially nervous about the
during the Panama invasion in late 1989,
with Iraqi Foreign Minister
war's effect on the Soviet Union's own
Tariq Aziz, Soviet Presi-
and it was put into effect in the gulf.
restive Islamic population. Both the
With much of the media especially
dent Mikhail Gorbachev not only can
military and Communist Party hard-
-pinned down, the only threat to
move Moscow back to center stage in
liners also are upset by the big West-
the gulf crisis he also has a chance to
support for the war comes from an ex-
ern military presence in the gulf and
demonstrate to Soviet hard-liners,
tended conflict with large numbers of
the end of Soviet support for Iraq, a
U.S. casualties. The first weeks of a
particularly in the military, that the
longtime ally and arms client.
Soviet Union has its own Mideast
ground war will thus be crucial to contin-
The Bush administration says the
ued support at home, and there is good
policy and is not just dancing to
Soviet Union has observed the U.N.
Washington's tune.
reason to hope casualties won't be high.
embargo against Iraq, but
In an apparent effort to
Overseas, Bush is playing on trickier
there is a dispute within
terrain as he seeks to hold the interna-
carve out a larger role for
the U.S. intelligence
tional coalition together. According to
themselves in the gulf cri-
community over the Sovi-
sis and its resolution, So-
an administration official, the turning
et role in Iraq's war ef-
viet officials have bolted
fort. U.S. sources familiar
point in securing world support came
last November when the United Na-
from the diplomatic side-
with intelligence reports
lines to meet with Iranian
tions authorized the use of force. The
say photographs show
British are even more fervent than
Foreign Minister Ali Ak-
Soviet surface-to-air mis-
Americans and now accord their new
bar Velayati, representa-
siles being loaded on So-
leader, John Major, the highest public
tives of the European
viet planes, both in the
Community and even
Soviet Union and in some
support of any prime minister since
Saddam Hussein himself.
Winston Churchill in World War II.
Eastern European coun-
Says a senior administra-
Primakov. Got the
Support for the North Atlantic Treaty
tries, and being delivered
tion official: "There must
Organization and for a continued U.S.
Soviet ball rolling
to Iraq just before the war
inevitably be some sense
broke out. The sources
military presence in Europe has also
in the Soviet Union to
jumped in several nations.
say other planes made
Still, the most critical hearts and
stick a hand up and say,
numerous trips to Iraq on
'Hey, we count, too.'
minds are probably in the Middle East,
the eve of war, often
and it is there that Hussein is targeting
Although the Soviet
straddling the Turkish-
Union insists it stands by
Iranian border. Some ad-
his propaganda. Yet Bush aides say that
United Nations demands
ministration officials also
despite the bombing in Baghdad, Hus-
for a total, unconditional
sein is losing support in Egypt, which
express concern over the
Iraqi withdrawal from
accounts for a quarter of all Arabs, and
continued presence in
Kuwait, Moscow's initial
in Saudi Arabia, which holds many of
Iraq of Soviet advisers
embrace of Saddam Hus-
the Arab riches. Polls in several coun-
who are experts on U.S.
tries show that while the Arab man on
sein's heavily conditioned
weapons. Both Soviet
peace proposal as "posi-
Aziz. A Moscow
the street is leery of the massive West-
and U.S. officials strongly
tive" fueled fears that
ern military presence in the region, he
forum for Iraq
deny such allegations, al-
is also anti-Saddam Hussein. Four
Gorbachev, under pres-
though a senior U.S. offi-
sure from hard-line critics in the mili-
weeks into the war, U.S. officials be-
cial concedes that "renegade offi-
lieve Hussein's base of support is no
tary and the Communist Party, is tilt-
cers" could be violating sanctions
ing toward Iraq. The military has been
larger than when the conflict started:
without Moscow's knowledge.
Palestinians, Jordan, Yemen and the
unhappy with the Kremlin's gulf poli-
Senior U.S. officials remain confi-
countries of the Maghreb.
cy from the outset and is particularly
dent that the Soviet government is
While some U.S. military analysts
angered by what it considers a long list
"playing by the rules." Indeed, one
of foreign-policy "mistakes" by for-
worry that Hussein can win by losing,
senior State Department official says
the prevailing view among Bush's aides
mer Foreign Minister Eduard Shevar-
Gorbachev adviser Yevgeny Prima-
dnadze during the course of his close
is that the danger of that is manageable.
kov's trip to Baghdad last week "was
They have always thought that in the
relationship with Washington.
meant to make [Hussein] face up to
end, Arabs would give greatest respect
Soviet military officials are particu-
reality." If true, the meeting in Mos-
to the military victor-not the man who
larly anxious that Gorbachev try to
COW will test both the Iraqis' grip on
brought humiliation and destruction
resolve the gulf conflict before the
reality and the Soviets' intentions.
upon his country.
start of a ground war. They openly
gripe about the prospect of a huge war
BY DOUGLAS STANGLIN WITH JEFF
BY DAVID GERGEN AND HARRISON RAINIE
with unpredictable consequences
TRIMBLE IN MOSCOW AND LOUISE LIEF
only 200 miles from the Soviet border.
AND KENNETH T. WALSH
WITH BRUCE B. AUSTER, LOUISE LIEF, BRIAN
DUFFY AND KENNETH T. WALSH
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
PHOTOS: (TOP) BORIS YURCHENKO AP; (BOTTOM) PASCAL GEORGE AFP
29
THE GULF WAR
A. NOGUES SYGMA
What help for the poor? Egyptian refugees at a camp in Jordan
Swords into
plowshares
Why winning the peace could make
winning the war look relatively easy
Who will rebuild? A Baghdad street allegedly
Although the United
date and undermine his neighbors and
en its own military or to rely too heavily
States and its allies are
to cling to his claim to be leading an
on other Arab troops. That means the
systematically destroy-
Arab campaign against Israel and the
gulf states will continue to rely on Ameri-
ing the military ma-
West. He would continue to act as a
ca for their defense. Saudi officials say
chine that made Sad-
lightning rod for Palestinian discontent,
U.S. troops will have to leave once the
dam Hussein the most
endangering any progress in the Arab-
war ends. But privately they expect a
DESERT
dangerous neighbor in
Israeli conflict.
multinational force, composed mainly of
STORM
a very tough neighbor-
But his invasion of Kuwait already may
Muslim forces but with some American
hood, forging a lasting
have produced the opposite of what Hus-
troops, to remain behind, probably in
peace in the volatile Middle East may
sein intended: Instead of purging the gulf
Kuwait, to help stabilize the region. The
prove to be harder than crushing the
of American influence, the war may be
Saudis also expect a larger contingent of
Iraqi Army.
giving the United States a bigger political
U.S. ships and planes to stay in the gulf
Administration officials have just
and military role in the re-
LE SEGRETAIN SIPA
permanently. With Iran
started thinking about how to capitalize
gion. Washington's re-
and Iraq still licking their
on victory over Iraq in a way that will
sponse to Iraq's aggression
war wounds and Syria no
help solve other Mideast issues. Secre-
has reassured some ner-
longer able to count on
tary of State James Baker already has
vous Arab states that de-
massive Soviet support,
outlined five postwar goals: new gulf se-
spite its misadventures in
such preparations should
curity arrangements, regional arms con-
Iran and Lebanon, Ameri-
be an adequate deterrent
trol, a Middle East bank for reconstruc-
ca is a reliable partner.
for the time being.
tion and development, tackling the
"There will be a tendency
Some Saudis are suspi-
Arab-Israeli dispute and an energy poli-
to look to us," says a senior
cious that their neighbors
cy to reduce U.S. oil imports.
State Department official,
"would consider such an
Much depends on exactly how the war
"to shape regional security
arrangement merely a
ends, however, and especially on wheth-
and border arrangements.
means of extracting money
er it ends with Hussein still in power. A
Although Baker suggest-
from Saudi Arabia, money
surviving Hussein would have his hands
ed that there is a need for a
which it does not have," as
full trying to rebuild his country and his
larger, more credible Saudi
a senior Saudi official puts
shattered military. But he could still use
defense force, Saudi Ara-
A new threat? Syria's
it. But the Saudi royals,
terrorism and assassination to intimi-
bia is reluctant to strength-
Assad could profit.
who have an inherent inter-
30
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
BERNARD ESTRADE AFP
suspect that instead of becom-
ing a peacemaker, Assad will
try to replace Saddam Hussein
as the leader of the Arab rejec-
tionists, both to relegitimize
his minority Alawite rule at
home and to burnish his image
with the Arab masses.
Still, the war already is
changing some of the arithme-
tic of Mideast diplomacy:
Iraq's Scud attacks have gen-
erated sympathy for Israel in
the West, while the Palestine
Liberation Organization's
embrace of Saddam Hussein
has undermined support for
the PLO and its leader, Yassir
Arafat. U.S. officials are hop-
ing that after the war, some
Arab coalition states will sig-
nal a willingness to work with
Israel as the best hope for de-
livering something tangible to
the Palestinians.
Saudi officials say privately,
however, that they expect the
United States to make the
first move by pressuring Israel
into making concessions to
the Palestinians, but few if
any Israelis are in the mood to
offer territorial concessions to
the Palestinians, who cheered
Iraq's Scud attacks, in ex-
damaged by allied air attacks. Postwar reconstruction in Iraq will cost billions.
change for peace agreements.
Although both U.S. and Is-
est in keeping their own armed forces
struction effort and in having a say in the
raeli officials believe the balance of pow-
weak, would
fer a multinational force
postwar security order will be an incen-
er in the Palestinian movement will shift
to a bigger Saudi Army. To head off
tive to tolerate a low-key American air
from the PLO to the West Bank and
possible coups, the Saudis have kept
and naval presence in the gulf. But the
Gaza, Israeli-Palestinian relations have
their military small and have divided it
United States remains the official Satan
become so embittered during this con-
into six branches. Soon after the Iraqi
of Iran's Islamic revolution, and Iranian
flict that it is difficult to see how negotia-
invasion, King Fahd announced plans to
officials adamantly oppose any Ameri-
tions would proceed.
increase the size of the military from
can or even non-gulf Muslim participa-
At the same time, the war has con-
75,000 to 200,000, but he has done noth-
tion in a gulf security force. U.S. officials
vinced many Israelis that they need to
ing about it since and is unlikely to im-
say they are ready to talk to an "authori-
deal first with the Arab nations that pose
pose a draft. "The al-Saud are not
tative" Iranian representative, but they
the greatest threat, not with the Palestin-
dumb," says a Western diplomat in Saudi
say that the six U.S. hostages in Lebanon
ians, and U.S. officials acknowledge that
Arabia. "Who overthrew the Hashemites
and Iranian support for terrorism still
the destruction of Iraq's missiles and nu-
in Iraq? The Army. They know where the
block any real improvement in relations.
clear-, chemical-and biological-weapons
threat comes from."
High hopes. Some observers hope that
facilities won't end the threat these
But there are other threats. Saudi-Ira-
Syria's participation in the anti-Iraq co-
weapons pose in the Mideast. In theory,
nian relations remain troubled, and Iran,
alition, coupled with the Soviet retrench-
all sides have an interest in negotiating
now playing host to more than 130 Iraqi
ment, will prompt Syrian President Ha-
arms control and other security arrange-
warplanes and floating its own peace
fez Assad to rethink his confrontation
ments that could lower tension and end
plans, is a wild card in the effort to build
with Israel. Secretary of State Baker,
the region's costly arms races. But it is
a new regional order in the gulf. Baker
brainstorming with Israel's ambassador
questionable whether either side trusts
has praised Iran's conduct in the war and
to Washington, Zalman Shoval, asked if
the other enough to make such deals.
acknowledged the need to include it in a
Israel would consider demilitarizing the
Arabs argue that they need chemical
regional security structure, but Iran's
Golan Heights, which Israel captured
weapons because Israel has nuclear ones,
Shiite fundamentalist revolution re-
from Syria in 1967 and annexed in 1981.
but Israel is unlikely to trade its unde-
mains an inspiration to anti-Western
But Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Sha-
clared nuclear deterrent for Arab prom-
radicals, and Iranian interests run
mir has assured Jewish settlers in the
ises not to field chemical weapons.
counter to those of America and the gulf
Golan that he would reject any changes
It is not even clear whether the West
states. U.S. officials hope Iran's interest
in the strategic territory's status, and
can limit the spread of technological ad-
in getting Western help for its recon-
U.S., Israeli and European officials all
vances that could soon make much more
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
31
THE GULF WAR
Says a defense official: "That could mean
computers have legitimate business and
a millionfold increase in military effec-
scientific applications. As Henry So-
dangerous weapons available. The inac-
tiveness against a given target."
kolski, the Pentagon's expert on nonpro-
curate Scud can land several kilometers
While export controls on munitions
liferation policy, told Congress recently:
from where it is aimed, but Defense De-
are fairly simple to enforce, the technol-
"The more uses a technology has, the
partment officials worry that within 10
ogy that improves missile-guidance sys-
more rapidly it is likely to spread."
years, the use of navigational systems like
tems has numerous commercial applica-
The greatest threats to the new Mid-
U.S. Navstar Global Positioning System
tions. Equipment used to produce
east order the Bush administration en-
satellites could make easily affordable
chemical weapons also can be used to
visions may be domestic, not interna-
missiles accurate to within a few meters.
make pharmaceuticals, and high-speed
tional, however. Already, the war has
OUTWITTING HUSSEIN
Likud Party hopes to translate into
Top Israeli officials also realize that
electoral gains.
retaliation could transform the gulf
Why Israel
Public opinion. Despite Hussein's
war into an Arab-Israeli conflict. Dur-
terror attacks on Israeli cities, the Is-
ing one cabinet meeting, Levy pound-
remains
raeli public has backed the no-retalia-
ed his fist on the table and told mili-
tion policy by 70 percent and more.
tary advisers, "Only when you give me
Better relations. Restraint now will
answers to A, B, C, D, then will I be
cautious
give Israel a "place at the table" when
ready to act. I want to know how the
the fighting ends, says a senior Israeli
Jordanians will react, how the Syrians
official. The Scud attacks, and Israel's
will react, how the U.S. will respond
S
o far, one of the gulf war's surprises
refusal to retaliate for them, have im-
and whether we can do this without
is that Israel is helping to defeat
proved Israel's image with the Ameri-
them. Without these assurances, I
Saddam Hussein without firing a shot.
can public, the Congress and the Bush
cannot consent."
In fact, the Iraqi leader's campaign to
administration. In the first week of the
Israel remains uncomfortable de-
split the Arab coalition aligned against
crisis, President Bush phoned Shamir
parting from its traditional policy of
him is being frustrated
P.GAZ-AFP
precisely because Israel
has not retaliated for
Iraq's Scud missile at-
tacks, most of them in ci-
vilian areas. And it is not
American pressure that
has stayed Israel's hand;
Israel has held itself back.
Prime Minister Yitz-
hak Shamir and his se-
nior aides have steered a
cautious course through-
out the crisis- never
even bringing a retalia-
tion plan to the cabinet
for a vote. Housing Min-
ister Ariel Sharon, the ar-
chitect of the Israeli inva-
sion of Lebanon in 1982
and an advocate of a mili-
tary response now, has
6353743
been outmaneuvered.
Israel has several rea-
sons for restraint:
Cautious prime minister.
Forgive and forget? Palestinians cheered when Iraq's Scud missiles struck Tel Aviv.
The 75-year-old Shamir
has made the big decisions by himself
five times-more than the two had
swift and effective retribution. De-
with advice from his defense minister
spoken in the last two years-and
fense Minister Arens told Secretary
and protégé, Moshe Arens, and, to a
Deputy Secretary of State Lawrence
of Defense Dick Cheney last week
lesser degree, Foreign Minister Da-
Eagleburger, dispatched to urge re-
that Israel's decision to turn the other
vid Levy. A former Mossad agent,
straint, also held out the promise that
cheek is apt to change if Iraq launch-
Shamir is cool under pressure, and
the chilly relationship between Shamir
es a Scud with a chemical warhead or
his sense of sure-footedness, com-
and Bush could be "turned around."
if a missile attack causes many fatali-
bined with Israeli anger at Palestin-
Self-interest. Israeli officials do not
ties. But in the meantime, Israel is sit-
ians for supporting Saddam Hussein,
want to jeopardize the ongoing de-
ting tight-and winning.
has meant a new surge in the pre-
struction of the Iraqi war machine-
mier's domestic popularity, which his
Israel's most frightening enemy.
BY DAVID MAKOVSKY IN ISRAEL
32
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
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A DANGEROUS GAME
Can the king
walk the
tightrope?
K
ing Hussein watchers say that
when the Jordanian monarch is
disturbed by events around him, he of-
ten responds by growing a beard. His
latest hirsute statement began to
sprout with the gulf crisis.
Though he has long been consid-
ered one of the West's most steady
allies in the Arab world, he has all but
abandoned his declared policy of neu-
trality. Jordan's state-controlled me-
dia are echoing Baghdad's propagan-
da machine; there are continuing
reports of Jordanian-Iraqi military co-
Uneasy crown. Jordan's King Hussein has tilted toward Iraq in the crisis.
operation, and in a recent speech Hus-
sein fell just short of calling his people
suicidal and his subjects' impassioned
Can Hussein survive the storm?
to arms.
support for Saddam Hussein. The
Administration officials say the alter-
Losing his grip? Since then, the king
king's pro-Iraq tilt has made him more
natives to the king are "unattractive."
has beaten a miniretreat, sanctimo-
popular than ever, but his supporters
The king himself believes that notion
niously claiming that all he really
say that failure to continue playing to
will help preserve his throne. Some
wants is to "give peace a chance." But
the crowd could send his people racing
palace insiders say he also hopes to
it remains to be seen whether he is still
up the hill to tear down his palace.
turn defeat for Iraq into victory for
in control of his country, or whether he
In Israel, the Shamir government
himself, and that when it's all over the
has abdicated ultimate decision mak-
has made it clear that the entry of Iraqi
credibility his pro-Baghdad stance has
ing to his Army or to the Muslim fun-
troops into Jordan would be a casus
won him among Palestin ns will en-
damentalists and Palestinian radicals
belli. Messengers from George Bush
able him to re-emerge as their inter-
in Jordan's streets.
also warn that if the king wants contin-
locutor and as a prime player in any
Hussein's defenders insist that he is
ued U.S. economic aid, he'd better
postwar Israeli-Arab settl
caught between his desire to keep Jor-
"turn down the volume" and not push
dan out of a war he knows would be
his kingdom deeper into Iraqi arms.
BY RICHARD Z. CHESNOFF JORDAN
had a great political impact on Saudi
The Saudis have spent or pledged $48
main at home, as a means of defusing
Arabia. "We're only at the beginning of
billion since August 2 for the allied war
social tensions heightened by the war:
understanding the repercussions," says
effort and support for friendly coun-
Despite the deficit, in mid-January
a senior U.S. official. "Now that the
tries. Because of the war, they will run a
King Fahd forgave two months of pay-
country has been attacked, a new vari-
deficit for the first quarter of 1991 of
ments on all government-financed
able will affect Saudi citizens' relations
about $17 billion to $18 billion - $2 bil-
home mortgages. Some Saudi money
to their government."
lion more than they ran for all of 1990
also is likely to go toward rebuilding
The Saudi government's lopsided dis-
and $5 billion more than their total gov-
Iraq, as a good-will gesture and a way to
tribution of gas masks and its failure to
ernment reserves. Last week they began
influence a post-Hussein government.
inform its own people about Scud missile
borrowing from international banks to
The Bush administration's best hope
attacks have intensified the security de-
meet their obligations. If, as many oil
for winning the peace may be its plan to
bate in the desert kingdom. The Ameri-
analysts anticipate, oil prices drop fur-
concentrate on small steps to establish
can presence has increased tensions be-
ther at the end of the war, Saudi fi-
regional risk-reduction centers to lower
tween Saudi liberals, who want to
nances will be squeezed even more.
the risks of accidental war, to work out
modernize their society, and fundamen-
Although Secretary Baker has pro-
water-sharing agreements, to coordinate
talists, who oppose any change.
posed the creation of a regional devel-
air and naval activities and to stem the
The Saudi monarchy, which for de-
opment bank and the drain on the Sau-
flow of weaponry to the region. In the
cades has bought political support by
di treasury will diminish after the war,
Middle East, even such modest progress
lavishing social benefits on its comfort-
the Saudis have not renewed earlier
would be revolutionary.
able but politically neutered popula-
promises to finance the region's have-
tion, is also finding that the war is be-
nots, many of whom have turned
BY LOUISE LIEF AND BRUCE B. AUSTER WITH
ginning to strain the financial resources
against the Saudis and Kuwaitis during
CARLA ANNE ROBBINS IN SAUDI ARABIA, DAVID MAKOVSKY IN
the kingdom always took for granted.
the crisis. Saudi charity is likely to re-
ISRAEL AND RICHARD Z. CHESNOFF IN JORDAN
34
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
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THE GULF WAR
The run
and shoot
offense
U.S. doctrine calls for speed,
surprise and striking deep
The public debate over when, or even wheth-
er, to begin a ground war has focused largely
on the daunting Iraqi defenses in Kuwait:
barbed wire, ditches and minefields backed
up by massed, chemical-capable artillery that
could loose a withering fire on any allied
DESERT
troops attempting to breach these "killing
STORM
zones." In the clearest measure yet of the
success of the "battlefield preparation" cam-
paign, allied forces announced last week that air attacks had
destroyed at least 1,300 tanks and 1,100 artillery pieces, about
one third of the total that Iraq had in and around Kuwait
when the war began. Some senior military officials suggested
that the Iraqi Army may be nearing the point where it ceases
to function as a coherent force. Others cautioned that Iraqi
defensive positions could still pose a formidable obstacle.
But the choice between continuing the air war and launch-
ing what is invariably termed a "bloody" ground campaign is
misleading in two important respects.
First, the U.S. Army's modern war-fighting doctrine, known
as AirLand Battle, suggests that U.S. commanders may have
in mind a very different sort of ground war - one that relies on
speed, surprise and deep strikes into the enemy's rear to sur-
round and cut off the enemy force, while avoiding a head-on
confrontation. The AirLand Battle doctrine calls for maneu-
vering around enemy strengths and for using artillery, rockets
and air support to keep any approaching enemy units at arm's
length. U.S. Army Field Manual 90-3, "Operations in Desert
Conditions," states it this way: "An attacking force capable of
airmobile or extended ground operations can usually find a
way over or around an obstacle. The defending force can then
be bypassed, contained, or taken from the rear."
The object is to minimize the inevitably chaotic, close-in
fighting that claims the greatest number of lives on the battle-
field. As applied to Kuwait, it would satisfy the classic injunc-
tion to commanders to defeat not their enemy but their ene-
my's plan Saddam Hussein's plan being to engage the allied
forces in a drawn-out, World War I-style war of attrition.
Second, as envisioned by the commanders in the gulf, a fast,
overwhelming ground thrust would be intended not to replace
the air campaign, but to make an intensified air war more
effective by forcing the enemy to move out of sheltered posi-
tions, exposing him to attack and straining his already
Mobility. Each armored division is accompanied by close
38
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY
supply trucks to support its high-speed operations, which can consume more than 550,000 gallons of fuel per day.
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
39
THE GULF WAR
would be expected to look ahead 72
hours on the battlefield. Air strikes, per-
crippled supply lines. "There may be a
haps supplemented by attacks with the
point when you send your ground
ground-launched Army Tactical Missile
forces in and you can do the job quicker
System, which delivers a cluster-bomb
with less loss of life on both sides," says
warhead to a range of about 100 miles,
Lt. Gen. Charles Horner, commander
could be directed against enemy troops
of the allied air forces in the gulf.
and tanks that began moving to threaten
AirLand Battle was developed in the
an allied spearhead. "Deep operations
late 1970s to replace earlier U.S. doctrine
shape the battlefield for the ground
that was geared toward a defensive war
campaign," says an Army official.
of attrition to hold off a Soviet attack on
Using the data provided by the two
Western Europe. The new doctrine,
JSTARS aircraft in the gulf, which can
which was officially adopted in 1982, em-
see about 125 miles into the enemy's rear,
phasizes instead the advantages of taking
as well as more conventional sources of
the offensive using rapid maneuvers to
intelligence, commanders at the division
defeat an enemy with superior forces.
level and below could carry on their own
The U.S. Army has long placed great
"deep battle" operations against threats
stock on speed, deception and maneu-
closer in while the corps commander is
ver. But putting those principles into
concentrating on the more distant
practice has been another matter. As
threats. Self-propelled artillery-g
General Patton's tanks raced across
mounted on tracked, armored vehicles-
France toward the Rhine, they fre-
are designed to keep up with the tanks so
quently outran their supply lines. A
that even in high-speed operations the
modern armored force depends on a lo-
armored units never outrun artillery cov-
gistics train that makes Patton's look
er, which is needed to force enemy anti-
small. In 24 hours, one heavy division
tank infantry gunners to stay under cov-
can consume 5,000 tons of ammunition,
er. The potent Multiple Launch Rocket
550,000 gallons of fuel, 300,000 gallons
System, with a range of more than 20
of water and 80,000 meals.
miles, is likewise carried on a tracked
In 1973, Israeli tanks likewise outma-
vehicle. Such extended-range weapons
neuvered Arab forces but, lacking ade-
create a moving screen ahead of the at-
quate artillery cover, found themselves
tacking force, minimizing the need to
sitting ducks for Egyptian infantry
fight close-in battles.
armed with antitank missiles.
Hitting faster. Moreover, some opera-
But new technologies-coupled with
tional improvements have shortened
the allies' total air supremacy - at last
the time lag between spotting a target
may allow commanders to translate the
and hitting it. In F-16 squadrons, the
theory into practice. Effective air cover
forward air controllers, whose job it is
allows the thousands of vulnerable sup-
to spot enemy positions and call in air
ply trucks that are needed to keep a
attacks, have begun flying in F-16s in-
rapidly moving tank force running to
stead of slower A-10s. These "fast
perform their vital task.
FACs" reportedly have greatly in-
Most important are reconnaissance
creased the effectiveness of strikes
systems that allow ground commanders
against Iraqi troop positions in Kuwait.
to monitor enemy troop movements so
Army Rangers, units such as the 82nd
that attacking forces can either avoid
Airborne and 101st Air Assault Divisions
Air mobility. Helicopter-borne troops would be
them or engage them with long-range
and special-operations units also can op-
HANS HALBERSTADT ARMS COMMUNICATIONS
weapons. While these electronic means
erate in the enemy's rear. On the first day
can't give a total picture of the battle-
of the war, for example, Apache attack
field, they promise to revolutionize op-
helicopters conducted special operations
erations. "For the first time in the his-
against a Republican Guard command
tory of warfare, an army won't have to
center in northwest Kuwait. Air-assault
use maneuver units for surveillance,"
units, which use helicopters to leapfrog
says a retired Army general. "This time
enemy positions, might be especially use-
virtually all the units will be available to
ful to trap an enemy force. "They become
deliver a blow to the enemy."
the anvil and the main attacking force is
Commanders down to battalion level
the hammer," says an Army official.
will be getting near-real-time pictures of
Deep strikes can be decisive even if
the ground ahead from E-8A JSTARS
they do not completely destroy enemy
radar planes and other intelligence-
forces. They can prevent reinforcements
gathering systems. In support of the
from massing and delay them from arriv-
corps-size operation (a corps contains
ing on the battlefield, or simply SOW
three or more divisions, a total of more
enough chaos that enemy commanders
than 1,000 tanks and 50,000 men) that
no longer can control their forces effec-
U.S. forces in the gulf have been train-
tively. That is why attacks on the Repub-
ing for, corps-level field commanders
lican Guard divisions in northern Ku-
Maneuver war. Night-vision gear allows U.S.
40
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
used to strike deep into the enemy's rear, disrupting reinforcements and cutting off lines of retreat.
HANS HALBERSTADT - ARMS COMMUNICATIONS
SYM
BRT
THE GULF WAR
mines may be needed to tie down the
enemy. Allied forces have at their dis-
wait and nearby Iraq have concentrated
posal a variety of mines that can be air-
on more than just tanks, says one Penta-
dropped to create "instant" minefields.
gon official: "Aircraft are destroying his
The Air Force's 1,000-pound Gator
equipment but also his ability to com-
bomb can SOW 72 antitank and 22 anti-
mand his forces, his roads and transports
personnel mines over a 200-by-300-foot
and his ability to resupply his troops. All
area when dropped at low altitude. Simi-
this makes it impossible for the enemy to
lar mines can be delivered by UH-60
execute his battle plan. He won't be able
Black Hawk helicopters, 155-mm artil-
to join the battle with the strength he'd
lery shells and trucks.
like or at the time he'd like."
Deceiving the enemy. Another part of
Sheer speed has a shock value all its
the countermobility battle is the use of
own. The M-1A1 tank can travel as fast
decoys and feints to tie down the enemy
as 40 mph, as can much of the support
forces. "We're going to seem to be com-
equipment of an armored division. That
ing from all directions," says one offi-
pace could make it difficult for the Ira-
cial. This has the effect of isolating ene-
qis to keep up with allied movements
my units: "A commander may react
and could help American troops outrun
brilliantly to what he sees in front of
conventional or chemical artillery bar-
him, but he won't see the big picture,"
rages. Army officials concede that no
says an Army official. The Iraqis lack
U.S. commander would want to duke it
the allies' air and satellite reconnais-
out with Iraq's plentiful artillery, some
sance systems, and the destruction of
of which has longer range and better ac-
their communications network only in-
curacy. But greater maneuverability
creases this isolation. One Saudi officer
Feints. Allied forces firing all along the front
could allow him to keep his tanks and
who has interviewed Iraqi defectors says
troops out of range while allied air pow-
the Iraqis believed they were cut off
U.S. operations manuals call for ex-
er knocks out the enemy artillery.
from communications with the rear. At
tensive use of smoke-smoke genera-
Complementing the speed and mobil-
the unit level, the Iraqis have "an ex-
tors and special mortar and artillery
ity of its own forces, the U.S. Army's
traordinary amount of push-to-talk ra-
ammunition are deployed throughout
doctrine calls for waging a counter-
dios, and you're not going to kill all of
U.S. forces-to mask ground opera-
mobility battle against the enemy to deny
those," says one military source. But, he
tions in desert conditions. A jeep tow-
him those same advantages. The absence
added, with the damage done to date,
ing chains can whip up enough dust to
of natural obstacles in most desert ter-
"it would be very difficult [for the Iraqi
simulate the movement of a large con-
rain means that the extensive use of
Army] to correlate a corps-level attack.'
voy, an especially effective technique in
LESSONS OF THE MASTERS
Ulysses S. Grant and William T. Sher-
man and the Confederacy's Lee and
Civil War tactics could win
Stonewall Jackson among their teach-
ers. Some of the Civil War's enduring
'the mother of battles'
concepts seem too simple-like Con-
federate Gen. Nathan Bedford For-
rest's desire to "git thur fustest with the
C
ivil War historian Gabor Boritt
day's Western world would attempt
mostest"-yet they revolutionized war-
paused during a Gettysburg battle-
something SO utterly idiotic."
fare that for centuries had stressed set-
field tour last week to admire a yellow
On the other hand, some of the tac-
piece battles between armies in place.
ribbon tied to a Confederate statue that
tics both sides used in the Civil War
Some scholars expect Schwarzkopf
marks the spot where Pickett's Charge
were utterly brilliant, and some may be
to follow one of Stonewall Jackson's
began. "I like the ribbon," Boritt said,
as applicable today in the Mideast as
edicts: "Never fight against heavy odds
"but you can bet that General Schwarz-
they were nearly 130 years ago in a divid-
if by any possible maneuvering you can
kopf won't try any Pickett's Charge."
ed America. For decades, generals have
hurl your whole force on only a part,
Saddam Hussein may be hoping the al-
looked to the nation's first modern war
and that the weakest part of your ene-
lied commander launches the kind of
for lessons, and counted the Union's
my, and crush it." Thus Jackson, with
attack that Robert E. Lee or-
USN&WR
USN&WR
AP
barely 17,000 men, whipped
dered at Gettysburg - a fron-
60,000 Yankees in a series of
tal assault by Gen. George
quick marches and smart bat-
Pickett's division against the
tles in the Shenandoah Val-
center of a dug-in Union line.
ley of Virginia. His surprise
The Ayatollah Khomeini sent
attack at Chancellorsville -
waves of teenagers to be
on the Union rear - was
slaughtered by Hussein's en-
equally successful.
trenched defenders during
Schwarzkopf recently list-
the Iran-Iraq War. But, ob-
ed his three favorite generals
served Boritt, "no one in to-
Grant
Sherman
Jackson
as Grant, Sherman and the
42
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
JOE DeVERA-AP
one point in an enemy's defenses can
Continuing the battle around the clock
move perhaps 15 miles laterally at night
"does not allow the other side time to
and strike somewhere else or not
resupply," says Nicholas Diakides, presi-
strike at all. Likewise, say officials, a
dent of Advanced Concepts Analysis and
Marine amphibious unit stationed 20
for many years a leading scientist in the
miles offshore can make it appear that
Army's night-vision program. "There is
it is about to strike anywhere along
continuous pressure on the other side, SO
some 150 miles of beach.
they have difficulty continuing the fight."
Night-vision equipment, which ex-
Accurate navigation, which has been a
tends the threat around the clock, can
recurring problem in the featureless des-
further pin down the enemy. Every U.S.
ert, also is essential for high-speed opera-
vehicle and every major weapons sys-
tions. More than 10,000 Global Position-
tem, down to antitank missiles and .50-
ing System receivers ordered by the
caliber machine guns, is equipped with
Pentagon since August to make up for an
night sights. Every squad-which con-
initial shortage may have largely solved
sists of four to 10 men- has several
this problem. The GPS units, which pick
night-vision goggles and rifle sights, as
up signals from navigation satellites, can
well. These small, portable systems work
calculate their location on earth to within
by converting the small amounts of light
75 feet. Being able to know one's precise
from the stars and the moon into an
location reduces the risks of friendly-fire
electrical signal, which then is amplified
accidents and allows forward air control-
and reconverted to light. The resulting
lers and artillery observers to call in
green-hued image is at least 10 times
strikes with great accuracy.
better than the naked eye can see. The
Army officials acknowledge that Air-
will conceal the real attack.
heavier and more expensive infrared sys-
Land Battle has never been tested in
tems used on the F-117 Stealth fighter,
what they call a "high intensity environ-
open desert expanses where dust clouds
the M-1 tank and the Apache helicopter
ment." The invasion of Kuwait will be
can be seen 20 miles away. Allied forces
produce a sharper, black and white im-
that test-unless the devastation visited
already may be using false radio traffic
age by detecting the invisible heat waves
from the air turns the invasion into a
to confuse the Iraqis, who, according to
given off by objects. The hottest parts of
mopping-up operation as the Iraqi
U.S. sources, have a sophisticated net-
the picture-such as the warm area
Army collapses.
work of radio-listening equipment.
around a tank's engine - show up as the
The ability to move quickly improves
brightest. If the tank is moving, the fric-
BY STEPHEN BUDIANSKY WITH PETER CARY
the ability to deceive the enemy. Tanks
tion in the treads makes them hot and
IN SAUDI ARABIA, BRUCE B. AUSTER
that might appear to be ready to breach
thus very visible, too.
AND WILLIAM J. COOK
JEFF GLICK USN&WR
Korean War's Creighton Abrams.
from Chapter 8 of the
"This confirms my impression that
The Vicksburg gambit
Army's Field Manual
Schwarzkopf is a very smart man," says
Grant took fortified Vicksburg by going around it
No. 100-5, required
Princeton's James McPherson, author
River
reading for officers
of "The Battle Cry of Freedom," a Pu-
MISSISSIPPI
from Colin Powell on
litzer Prize-winning history of the Civil
RAILROAD
down. Grant, the man-
War. "Lee was brilliant tactically, but
Bridgeport
ual notes, "understood
Grant and Sherman had a better grasp
the essence of offensive
Vicksburg
of the strategic implications of the
Champion's
Jackson
operations" to strike a
Supply
technological changes that had oc-
Hill
route to
defender hard at an un-
curred in the years between Napoleon
Mississippi
Vicksburg
River
expected place and
and the Civil War-railroads, the tele-
Raymond
time. Grant's Vicksburg
graph, entrenchments, weapons with
PALICIO
operation is described
greater firepower and accuracy." Sher-
man is considered an exemplar of "the
GRANT
Pearl River
as a model campaign.
SCALE OF MILES
Instead of attacking the
indirect approach" - attacking the ene-
0
12.5
25
Port Gibson
Confederate Gibraltar
my's communications and his will to
head on, Grant went
fight, going around his flank and forc-
around it with a sur-
ing him out. "That," says McPherson,
the Iraqis are now, and Grant stretched
prise crossing of the Mississippi River
"is very much the strategy the Ameri-
him out and wore him down by con-
well to the south of the fortified city.
cans are following and, I think, will fol-
stantly moving the superior Union
He covered 200 miles in 19 days and
low in the Persian Gulf."
force around the Confederate right
left the cutoff Rebel defenders starving
Grant at Petersburg. The current ar-
flank. "Grant, of course, didn't have
in their trenches. "The same speed,
ray of ground forces in the Mideast re-
tanks and planes and armored person-
surprise, maneuver and decisive ac-
minds McPherson of the confrontation
nel carriers," McPherson notes, "SO it
tion," the Army manual says, "will be
between Grant and Lee along Virgin-
was a lot more difficult to do this kind
required to win battles of the future."
ia's Petersburg front in the last year of
of thing then than it is now."
the Civil War. Lee was entrenched, as
Another perspective can be gleaned
BY LEWIS LORD
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
43
WORLDGRAM
SOUTH AFRICA'S UNSTOPPABLE MARCH TOWARD MULTIRACIAL RULE
SOUTH AFRICA
AN IRREVOCABLE COMMITMENT. White backlash is intensifying, black militants are unyielding
and the political and economic differences are gaping, but South Africa's moves toward multira-
cial constitutional talks and eventual black majority rule now seem irreversible.
PRETORIA
Nowhere has the case for inevitability been better made than at the recent 11-hour impromptu
meeting between President F. W. de Klerk and African National Congress (ANC) leader Nelson
Mandela. By refining what the ANC's suspension of "armed struggle" entails, by clearing the way
for Pretoria's release of all political prisoners by April 30 and for the return of exiles, the two
Can conservative
leaders knocked down major roadblocks to a key multiparty conference on the country's political
whites derail moves
future. It appears certain to be held sometime this year. Equally important, the willingness of
toward multiracial
both de Klerk and Mandela to compromise in the face of fierce criticism at home underscored a
rule? Not by the
mutual commitment to the establishment of a nonracial democracy.
present head count
in Parliament. But
The potential pitfalls are not gone, however. De Klerk's moves to remove the last pillars of official
some polls show that
apartheid the statutes mandating where blacks may live, restricting black ownership of land
the Conservative
and classifying citizens by race- are encouraging the European Community, the United States
Party might come
and the International Monetary Fund to consider easing economic and financial sanctions. But
close to defeating
white hard-liners are determined to derail the initiatives for reform. At the same time, Mandela's
any referendum re-
veiled threat to destabilize the country if the EC lifts sanctions without ANC approval has scared
vamping the Consti-
even moderate whites, the same whites who will have to approve of future constitutional change.
tution. And some
Meanwhile, de Klerk and his ruling National Party are working behind the scenes to reassure
hard-liners could re-
whites that South Africa's capitalist economic system will not be destroyed by a future multiracial
sort to isolated acts
government. (For more on the economic cost of dismantling apartheid, see Page 53.)
of terrorism to im-
pede black-white
Like the whites, South African blacks are bitterly divided. The meeting between Mandela and
negotiations.
Zulu Chief Mangosuthu Buthelezi has eased intrablack violence in the Transvaal and Natal, but
they will have to meet many times more to end the fighting, let alone forge a common front on
constitutional talks. ANC hotheads opposed to any negotiations with whites will be harder for
Mandela to control. But with multiracial rule the prize, Mandela seems resolved to press on.
BRACING FOR THE INEVITABLE BREAKUP. Yugoslavia as it has existed since 1918 is finished.
YUGOSLAVIA
Either the ethnically diverse state will evolve into a loose confederation of sovereign republics or
it will break up and slide into civil war. The country's leaders will hold more desperate meetings
to stave off the transformation, but the only real question is whether it will be violent or peaceful.
BELGRADE
Step by step, Slovenia and Croatia, the most prosperous and Westernized republics as well as
the most secession-minded, are making the status quo untenable. Already, both have drastically
cut back on the funds transferred to the federal government and the armed forces. They have
agreed on a mutual-defense pact and begun recruiting militia volunteers. Meantime, Commu-
The Army already
nist-led Serbia, the biggest republic, has warned that it intends to expand its borders to include
is up in arms over
ethnic Serbs if the country falls apart- a direct threat to Croatia, which has an 11 percent Serbi-
secessionist aims of
an minority. And the Serbian-dominated Army has served notice that it would use force to disarm
Croatia and Slovenia.
police reservists in Croatia and Slovenia and to preserve the federal concept.
Some say all that
has prevented mili-
The plunge toward anarchy seems unavoidable unless the democratic desires of the Slovenes and
tary intervention is
Croats to go it alone are met. But as with Moscow and the Baltics, the Communist center is unwilling to
concern among the
let go. By far, the likeliest short-term scenario is a military takeover backed by the powerful Commu-
Serbian-dominated
nist nomenklatura. The one thing that could avert violence is an 11th-hour realization that a redefined
officer corps that
Yugoslavia, more loosely bound, would be to everyone's advantage. But there is little time for compro-
rank-and-file con-
mise. The Slovenia-Croatia timetable calls for formation of a European Community-style federation
scripts from other
within three months or they will declare independence. Last-minute miracles are not unknown in the
republics may refuse
Balkans. But today violence appears probable and a military takeover the calamitous result.
to obey orders if a
crackdown comes.
BY GERSON YALOWITZ WITH JIM JONES IN JOHANNESBURG AND FOREIGN-BUREAU REPORTS
44
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
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"American ignorance of other tongues
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The London Times
SPECIAL REPORT
The Medal of Honor
PROFILES IN COURAGE: PART IV
BETTMANN NEWSPHOTOS
For many Americans, Vietnam was a
fog while listening to the
time of protest and recrimination, not
changing sound of his heli-
copter's rotors. Flying side-
patriotism. Yet the conflict that raged
ways and tipping his chop-
along deep mountain valleys and
per to blow small openings
through steaming tropical jungles
in the 600-foot-thick fog -
produced more than its share of
techniques Brady had devel-
oped on earlier missions -
heroes. In such places as Pleiku, Hue
he made four landings in a
and Ia Drang, Americans displayed
hail of mortar and machine-
bravery and self-sacrifice above and
gun fire to rescue three doz-
en wounded men. "We went
beyond the call of duty. In all, 238
right over the North Viet-
men received the nation's highest
namese Army," Brady re-
honor, the Medal of Honor, for
calls. "They could hear me,
but they couldn't see me. By
Vietnam valor, including 151
the time they did, I was past
posthumously. This fourth installment
them in the fog."
in U.S. News's Medal of Honor
But ground fire did dam-
series running in tandem with a six-
age his helicopter's controls
so badly that he had to bor-
part TV documentary airing on 127
row another Huey for the
stations - is devoted to three
day's third mission: the res-
Americans whose heroism transcended
cue of a platoon of wound-
ed Americans who had
any doubts about the war itself.
stumbled into a minefield.
Despite constant danger
that the helicopter's down-
PATRICK BRADY
Hero at the White House. Brady receives his medal
draft would set off more ex-
and a handshake from President Nixon.
plosions, Brady landed in
A day's work
the center of the minefield
65 and 1967-68), Brady made 3,000 com-
and held the chopper in place while
for an angel
bat evacuation flights and rescued more
crewmen ran to pick up the wounded.
than 5,000 wounded or trapped soldiers
An exploding mine punched more than
and civilians from battlefields, firebases
400 holes in his fuselage, but he man-
of mercy
and ambush sites. The lanky Irishman
aged to get the crippled machine and
from South Dakota remembers busier
each of the wounded safely back to an
days than Jan. 6, 1968 the date he
air base. Commandeering a third heli-
Even before he was award-
earned the Medal of Honor-but none
copter, he made two more flights before
ed the Medal of Honor,
more satisfying.
nightfall. In one day's work, he saved 51
Maj. Patrick Henry Brady
It began with a dash into enemy terri-
soldiers.
was a legend across Viet-
tory to pull two wounded South Viet-
Except for winning the Medal of
nam's battle-scarred Cen-
namese soldiers from a tiny landing
Honor, that January 6 "was a lot like
tral Highlands. No one else
zone that was under small arms fire.
1968
other days," says Brady, now a major
was as willing or as able
Next, Brady flew to a fog-choked valley
general and deputy commander of the
to fly a lumbering Huey medevac heli-
where two choppers already had been
6th U.S. Army at the Presidio in San
copter through a curtain of machine-gun
shot down trying to reach wounded
Francisco. "On another day I went
fire or zero-visibility fog as this onetime
Americans lying only 50 yards from en-
through four aircraft. And on yet an-
reject from Seattle University's ROTC
emy positions. Fearing more losses, the
other we got 125 patients back. It just
unit. By the late 1960s, "Brady mission"
commander of a nearby U.S. firebase
never occurred to me not to get those
was a synonym for any rescue flight that
initially refused to give Brady the radio
guys out. I never lost a crewman or a
stretched the boundaries of skill and
frequency he needed to tell the trapped
patient on my helicopter. That's what
daring. During two Vietnam tours (1964-
GIs how to "talk him down" through the
I'm proudest of."
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
45
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GARY BEIKIRCH
seven more trips through artillery and
against North Vietnamese and Viet
mortar fire to retrieve the wounded.
Cong forces swarming through the Que
The dark side
While dragging a Vietnamese to safety,
Son Valley. For two days the platoon
he was hit by an exploding rocket that
made a mockery of Hanoi's claims of
of glory
drove shrapnel into his back and out his
absolute control over the region.
stomach. But he worked for hours more,
Then, at 10 p.m. on June 15, the frus-
finally collapsing from loss of blood.
trated North Vietnamese committed
For years Gary Beikirch
A week later he came to in a hospital.
several hundred troops to wiping out
had looked for something
"Here I was, the epitome of ego and
Howard's lonely unit. During the night,
he couldn't even identify.
self-sufficiency, a Green Beret, and I
grenade fragments wounded him so
Raised by aunts and uncles
was helpless, lying in a bed with tubes
badly that he couldn't move his legs.
after his parents were di-
running out of me," Beikirch recalls. It
Refusing an injection of pain-killing
vorced, he had moved 33
was the start of what he now calls a pil-
morphine, he pulled himself from fox-
1970
times and attended 11
grimage that included prayer, transcen-
hole to foxhole, repositioning his men,
schools by the time he was 15. Shy and
dental meditation, feelings of guilt
comforting the wounded, collecting am-
sensitive, he drifted through high school
about people he killed in Vietnam, be-
munition from the dead and radioing
and into college. There, he read "The
ing spit on by antiwar activists, enrolling
for air and artillery strikes within 50
Green Berets" and was so impressed
in Bible school and living as a recluse in
feet of his platoon.
that he enlisted in the Army's elite Spe-
the New Hampshire woods.
When his men ran out of hand gre-
cial Forces. Soon, as a Green Beret
Receiving the Medal of Honor in the
nades, Howard told them to lob rocks
U.S.ARMY
fall of 1973 was a moment of pride and
AP
trauma. Beikirch cut his shoulder-
length hair so he could wear his uni-
form. But when Richard Nixon hung
319
the medal around his neck, "all the pain
and hurt came back, along with a lot of
guilt." Beikirch returned to a seminary
to prepare to go to Vietnam as a mis-
sionary, a goal that evaporated with Ha-
noi's 1975 victory.
Now a grade school counselor in
Rochester, N.Y., Beikirch says that, be-
cause of Vietnam, he knows what val-
ues he would die for kill for. For
him, the core of those values was ex-
pressed on a sign he saw a generation
ago in a Special Forces camp: "To real-
ly live, you must almost die. To those
who fight for it, life has a meaning that
the protected will never know."
Green Beret. A new sense of values
JIMMIE HOWARD
Survivor. The sergeant laughed at death.
medic in a remote Montagnard village
One night of
at North Vietnamese creeping up the
in Vietnam, he found what he had been
hill. When enemy soldiers stuck their
seeking: a home, people he valued and
a cause. "My war involved me, 12
hell on a hill
heads up to see why the supposed gre-
nades had not exploded, the marines
Americans and the 2,300 Montagnards
made kill after kill, one rifle shot at a
that were in our little village," he re-
On the football fields of
time. When the North Vietnamese
calls. "I had visions of those people that
Iowa where he was an all-
started a familiar predawn chant, "Ma-
I had grown to love being killed, and
state tackle, 20 yards was
rine, you die," Howard had his men
that is what motivated me.'
enough for two first downs.
shout back every obscenity they could
Early on April 1, 1970, Beikirch's tight
On the rocky summit of
think of, then laugh as loudly as they
little world exploded in a devastating
Hill 488 in Vietnam, it was
could. That also worked. Enemy sol-
enemy attack. He grabbed his medic's
1966
the width of a precarious
diers concluded that the force on the
kit and raced across an open slope to
outpost that Staff Sgt. Jimmie Howard
hill had to be much bigger than one pla-
treat a wounded Vietnamese. Amid
and 17 other marines defended for one
toon if it could laugh at certain death.
bullets and shrapnel, he toted another
long night against a North Vietnamese
When help arrived the next day, the
wounded soldier to a medical bunker,
battalion.
platoon's 12 survivors- all badly
then darted out to help a wounded
This Alamo with survivors was a fight
wounded - were down to eight bullets
American lieutenant.
between tough, seasoned enemies who
and a few rocks. The platoon on "How-
Almost immediately, the medic was
knew how dramatically an entire cam-
ard's Hill" became one of the most dec-
hit by a mortar round. Still he managed
paign, or even a war, could be affected
orated in history: 18 Purple Hearts, 13
to drag himself forward, patch the offi-
by the action of one small unit. How-
Silver Stars, 4 Navy Crosses and Jimmie
cer's wounds and crawl back to the bun-
ard's reconnaissance platoon had been
Howard's Medal of Honor.
ker, pulling the lieutenant behind him.
set down on Hill 488 at dusk on June 13,
Refusing treatment, the sergeant made
1966, to direct air and artillery strikes
BY JAMES WALLACE
48
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
BUSINESS
ILLUSTRATIONS BY MARC ROSENTHAL FOR USN&WR
OF
AMERICA
TED STATES
DO
Big-bank marriages
Who should get hitched to whom-and why. A matchmaker's guide
T
he big news in banking circles
think you'll get more competition and
more of the country's 1.5 million bank
these days, along with the Trea-
better service for consumers," says
employees could lose their jobs-not a
sury Department's sweeping new
Democratic Rep. Charles Schumer of
politically palatable prospect.
plan to reform the industry, is the long
New York. Salomon Brothers analyst
Nonetheless, banking authorities sup-
list of suitors eager to merge with the
Thomas Hanley believes that the first
port mergers as a way to revive a deci-
failed Bank of New England. Much of
major bank merger will be "the catalyst
mated industry. In announcing his
the proposal has met with resistance,
that radically changes the landscape of
bank-reform plan, Treasury Secretary
but there's virtually no argument with
American banking as the top 15 players
Nicholas Brady complained that Ameri-
one premise of the plan: America has
start to pair off."
ca's banks have lost their worldwide
too many banks and the industry must
Some bank marriages, like the one
competitive edge. Indeed, U.S. banks
consolidate. Most U.S. banks are small,
involving the battered Bank of New En-
have three times the operating expenses
local institutions, which depend heavily
gland, look more like shotgun weddings
per dollar of assets compared with Japa-
on their hometown economies. As a re-
as the industry seeks a quick fix for pal-
nese banks. Mergers could make Amer-
sult, they have gotten into financial
try earnings and a worrisome capital
ican banks as strong as some of their
trouble because of a failure to diversify
crunch. Last year, profits for the na-
international rivals. Britain has just 550
assets and an inability to keep down
tion's top 35 banks fell 28 percent, mak-
commercial banks, Canada has 65 and
borrowing and operating costs. "Right
ing it the worst year for banking since
Japan has fewer than 150. Because there
now, we've got about 13,000 banks,"
the 1930s. Because of deteriorating loan
are fewer banks in these countries than
says David Beim of Columbia Business
portfolios and undernourished capital
in the United States and because they
School, "and that's at least 12,000 more
bases, most U.S. banks are scrambling
are mostly national, they can more safe-
than we need."
to raise cash. Cutting costs can help.
ly spread their risks and allocate capital
The financial-services industry will
And a sure-fire method for saving on
more efficiently to growing industries.
shrink in the 1990s, as small-town banks
bank overhead is to merge. The savings
In fact, there have been no big bank fail-
become branches of big-city banks and
translate into higher earnings, which
ures in these nations.
big-city banks merge to become nation-
make it easier to sell more shares of
Below, analysts pick four of the most
wide banks. "In that consolidation I
stock. As banks consolidate, a third or
attractive U.S. bank mergers:
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
49
The key question now is how big that
dowry will be.
Chemical and Manufacturers Hanover.
Which of Manhattan's embattled mon-
ey-center banks will be the first to
merge? The top five candidates, in or-
der of size, are Citicorp, Chase Manhat-
tan, Chemical, Manufacturers Hanover
and Bank of New York.
The yentas of Wall Street believe that
a marriage between Chemical, with $2.7
billion in noninterest expenses, and
Manufacturers Hanover, with annual
expenses of $2.1 billion, makes the most
economic sense. However, eliminating
duplicative retail outlets could be a
problem because leases by the banks
may be hard to break. One industry ob-
server says that banks with these bind-
RISKY ENGAGEMENT
ing real-estate commitments might have
MONEY-CENTER MARRIAGE
to go so far as to declare bankruptcy to
Beleaguered Bank of New England is
extricate themselves.
Chemical and Manny Hanny have
being courted by many suitors, but
Still, Chemical and Manny Hanny
would be a formidable couple. Chemi-
much in common. Each focuses on
Banc One may be the perfect match.
cal, for example, is the strongest small-
global and consumer banking.
business bank in New York, and it has
Bank of New England and Banc One.
developed niches overseas in areas like
work with Chemical Chairman Walter
Some banks have no choice: to merge
foreign exchange and the financing of
Shipley. Banking insiders claim there is
or die. Such is the case with Bank of
mergers and acquisitions. Manny
coolness between the two men. Neither
New England, recently taken over by
Hanny also has a significant presence in
executive would comment for this story,
the government after real-estate-loan
global capital and currency markets, so
but before wedding bells peal, egos may
losses wiped out its capital. About a
costs could be trimmed there. More
have to be sacrificed.
dozen suitors-including BankAmerica
money could be saved from consolida-
and the buyout firm of Kohlberg Kravis
tion of the two banks' consumer-bank-
BankAmerica and First Interstate.
Roberts - are considering making a bid
ing divisions.
BankAmerica and First Interstate, both
for the $20 billion bank. But, analysts
A major stumbling block may be get-
California-based, have been making
say, the most logical acquirer would be
ting Thomas Johnson - Chemical's one-
eyes at one another for years. They
Columbus, Ohio-based Banc One.
time No. 2 executive who defected for
were happily married decades ago, but
With a return on assets of 1.55 per-
Manny Hanny's presidency in 1989 to
grew too big and were forced to di-
cent, Banc One is considered
the most profitable large bank
in America. (Only 14 of the
TROUBLE IN TOKYO
biggest U.S. banks achieved a
March 31, 1993, will require
return of 1 percent or more
banks to have capital equiva-
during last year's third quar-
Japan's banking blues
lent to 8 percent of their risk-
adjusted assets. As a result,
ter.) Banc One has succeeded
Japanese banks have been
by avoiding risky loans for
f misery loves company,
Though the industry's prob-
forced to curtail loan growth
highly leveraged transactions
then America's flagging
lems still pale in comparison
and raise fresh capital, just as
and by focusing on more con-
banks have plenty of compan-
with America's banking
the sharp decline of share
servative consumer deposits.
ions across the Pacific. Higher
blues no major bank is even
Growth for Banc One has
prices on the Tokyo Stock Ex-
interest rates, real-estate woes
close to going belly up-Japa-
change has made it next to im-
come through acquisition of
and the Tokyo stock market's
nese banks are now compelled
possible to raise funds. The
troubled banks. Last year, it
plunge of nearly 40 percent in
to alter their business prac-
softening Japanese real-estate
purchased MCorp, a strug-
1990 have left Japan's once
tices. In the past, Japan's su-
market has added to the bank-
gling $11 billion bank in Tex-
highflying banks reeling. Last
perbanks aggressively pursued
ing industry's troubles. To rein
as. By fixing problem banks,
year, Moody's Investors Ser-
market share by concentrating
in hyperinflated land prices
Banc One has proved it can
vice downgraded the credit rat-
on high-volume corporate
and reduce banks' exposure to
cope with the financial chal-
ings of Dai-Ichi Kangyo, the
loans with razor-thin margins.
this fragile market, the Minis-
lenge that Bank of New En-
world's biggest bank; Fuji, Su-
They also plowed massive
try of Finance has ordered the
gland will present.
mitomo and Mitsubishi banks,
funds into the nation's once
industry to cut back on lucra-
A crucial factor in deter-
as well as four Japanese trust
booming stock and property
tive but risky property-related
mining Bank of New En-
banks. Other financial institu-
markets.
loans. On top of this, interest-
gland's price will be the gov-
tions are now being reviewed
But no longer. New interna-
rate deregulation has squeezed
ernment's willingness to take
for possible downgrades.
tional rules effective after
profits for most banks. Overall,
over the bad loans and pro-
tect the purchaser from loss.
50
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
Analysts say the banks' combined non-
interest expense of $6.4 billion could eas-
ily be cut by $780 million, pushing com-
bined annual earnings up to $2 billion
from the $1.25 billion they earned on
their own last year. Savings would come
MORTGAGE
primarily from the sale of First Inter-
state's 332 California branches. Addi-
LEAVING
tional cuts could be made if the Trea-
CALIF.
sury's proposal for interstate banking is
enacted. Elimination of the requirement
that multistate bank holding companies
maintain separate subsidiaries with
separate boards of directors, accountants
and lawyers-would save BankAmerica
$50 million a year. First Interstate's an-
nual savings could be even greater.
Citicorp and H. F. Ahmanson.
Skeptics argue that bicoastal marriages
OUT-OF-STATE HONEYMOON
rarely work. But one promising and com-
BUILDING A HOME TOGETHER
patible partnership would be the combi-
BankAmerica may want to marry First
nation of the country's biggest bank and
Citicorp and H. F. Ahmanson, the
Interstate in order to further expand its
largest thrift: New York's Citicorp and
Los Angeles-based H. F. Ahmanson.
largest U.S. thrift, could blend their
business base in the West.
Both financial institutions are indus-
huge single-family-mortgage portfolios.
try leaders in single-family mortgages -
vorce by the government. With regula-
the least risky type of real-estate loan.
With its support of nationwide bank-
tors now pushing mergers, the pair may
Ahmanson boasts some $38 billion in
ing, the government would probably ap-
remarry.
deposits and originates some $10 bil-
prove of this bank marriage. And, to
The second-largest bank in the Unit-
lion in home mortgages each year.
the delight of banking regulators, Ah-
ed States, with $110 billion in assets,
More than 90 percent of its loan port-
manson may be able to teach giant Citi-
BankAmerica wants to expand further,
folio is secured by residential real es-
corp how to make money the old-fash-
beyond its seven-state base in the West.
tate, and while it runs 94 mortgage-
ioned way. By rarely lending more than
Linking up with First Interstate - the
lending offices in 13 states, nearly 80
80 percent of the appraised value of a
largest multistate bank holding compa-
percent of its lending business is in
house and by maintaining a staff of in-
ny in the United States, with more than
California. Citicorp, with $217 billion in
house appraisers to make sure the num-
1,100 branches in 14 Western states -
assets and a home-loan portfolio of $66
bers are not inflated, Ahmanson has
would be the most efficient way to
billion, has been aching to get into the
managed its considerable credit risk
achieve this goal.
California market.
well. Last year, net income from its core
lending operations rose an
impressive 16.3 percent.
bank profits are expected to
amount issued last year to
Insurance Corp., to assist in a
Despite the outward ap-
drop by an average of 27 per-
improve their capital ratios.
merger.
peal of this bank marriage,
cent for the year ending March
Like its American counter-
The remaining months of
however, Ahmanson's chair-
31, 1991.
part, Japan's banking industry
1991 may prove kinder to Japa-
man, Richard Deihl, says that
Credit crunch. The banks' re-
is about to undergo consolida-
nese banks. Interest rates are
a big merger isn't imminent.
sponse has been to get back to
tion. Two of the nation's stron-
inching down and the Nikkei
Even if it were, Citicorp
basics. They are expanding
gest banks, Kyowa Bank and
stock average is staging a mus-
clearly has no capital to
lending spreads by charging
Saitama Bank, will combine
cular rally in anticipation of
spare. In fact, with nearly 19
more for loans, even at the risk
their businesses on an equal
further rate cuts. Some ana-
percent of its $13.3 billion
of losing market share. They
basis this April; the resulting
lysts are now predicting a mod-
commercial real-estate port-
are also lending more selec-
new institution will become the
est recovery in fiscal 1991 prof-
folio consisting of nonper-
tively, focusing on traditional
nation's eighth-biggest com-
its for the nation's top
forming loans, Citicorp is fe-
corporate, project and retail
mercial bank and among the
commercial banks, barring an-
verishly trying to cut costs
loans. One offshoot is tighter
top 20 banks in the world. An-
other stock meltdown or a
and raise capital. John Reed,
credit: Total lending grew by a
alysts expect additional merg-
real-estate market free fall.
the bank's chairman, says he
piddling 3 percent in the first
ers to follow, with big commer-
Even so, Japan's once seem-
hopes to come up with at
half of last year, compared
cial banks linking up with
ingly invincible banking jugger-
least $4 billion. In the end,
with double digit growth dur-
regional banks. Should a bank
naut will continue to backpedal
Citi may lose Ahmanson to a
ing the preceding period.
become threatened, the Fi-
for some time to come. It's
West Coast bank that wants
Meanwhile, banks are scram-
nance Ministry is also prepared
time to say sayonara to the go-
to deprive the New York
bling to issue some 2 trillion
to use Japan's Deposit Insur-
go 1980s.
money-center giant of the
yen worth of subordinated
ance Corp., modeled after
large California franchise it
debt and loans the same
Washington's Federal Deposit
BY JIM IMPOCO IN TOKYO
SO badly desires.
BY TERRI THOMPSON
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
51
COMMENTARY
How to make banks safer
Washington should withdraw deposit insurance coverage if financial
institutions make risky investments with the public's money
T
he U.S. Treasury has taken the initiative in an effort
The confusion lies with federal deposit insurance. Small
to modernize our financial system. Rightly, it sees that
depositors are protected and thus have no reason to exercise
deposit insurance reform must be an essential ingredi-
scrutiny. Large depositors have or should acquire - the
ent. But the Treasury's recent proposals will not accomplish
ability to distinguish between sound and questionable banks.
their objective: healthier banks and less-exposed taxpayers.
But Washington has diluted market discipline by espousing
By limiting the insurance maximum - to $100,000 per indi-
the doctrine of "too big to fail." So large depositors in big
vidual and $100,000 for retirement accounts - the govern-
banks are effectively fully protected. Only large depositors in
ment plan would clearly limit the direct liability of the insur-
small banks that fail are sometimes hurt.
ance fund. But in the process, it would reduce the value of
The dilemma is plain: The United States is unwilling to
the banks' deposit-taking franchise just when they are un-
accept a financial framework without deposit insurance, but
der pressure to increase capital. And by continuing to sup-
true market discipline is incompatible with deposit insur-
port the "too big to fail" doctrine,
MARC ROSENTHAL FOR USN&WR
ance. The irony is that despite a de-
the Treasury is discriminating in fa-
cade of deregulation, major banks
vor of big banks and leaving the de-
are now more dependent on the gov-
posit insurance funds with increas-
ernment for their survival than ever.
ing indirect liabilities.
To reconcile this issue of govern-
The Treasury's contorted position
ment versus market discipline, I pro-
is an awkward attempt at compro-
BANK
pose that all deposit institutions be
mise in the long debate over how to
rated-either by one of the private-
discipline banks. One school holds
sector bond rating agencies or by an
that discipline must be imposed by
official supervisory agency. To be eli-
government. Advocates believe banks
gible for full insurance coverage, de-
have a special public duty that sets
posit institutions would be required
them apart from other businesses.
to maintain at least an AA rating.
Also, banks are heavily leveraged and
Falling below this rating would mean
vulnerable. So a balance must be
the loss of full insurance coverage 12
struck between their entrepreneurial
months later, unless the institution
drive and fiduciary responsibility.
initiated remedial action prescribed
Government regulation - imposing
by regulators. The threat of the loss
capital ratios, loan diversification cri-
of deposit insurance would serve as
teria and management oversight-i
an effective check on go-go bankers
the main way of ensuring balance.
and thrift executives.
The competing school believes
Implementation would take time.
that banks should be disciplined pri-
Regulators would have to develop a
marily by the marketplace. Banks
method of setting credit standards
should be allowed to prosper or fail like other companies
comparable to private ratings and then test them out. Phas-
and should be able to pursue opportunities without onerous
ing in the new deposit insurance eligibility requirements
restrictions. But it is up to investors and depositors to moni-
might take five years.
tor performance. If a bank starts to go wrong, they should
But the benefits would be great. The too-big-to-fail doc-
rebuke it by selling stock and withdrawing money. Only that
trine could be scrapped, since all insured institutions would
threat can rein in reckless managements.
have to follow more-conservative lending practices. Early in-
Policy gyrations. The problem is that we have never made
tervention by the regulators in case of management failure
up our minds about which school to embrace. In this century
would be encouraged. And taxpayers wouldn't have to res-
we have swung from minimal government involvement to
cue overextended deposit insurance funds, which would no
intensive bank regulation in the aftermath of the 1929 crash.
longer be used to bankroll financial executives more intent
Starting in the 1960s, we moved back toward tolerance of
on doing deals than upholding fiduciary responsibilities.
financial entrepreneurship. This culminated in the deregula-
The resulting financial system would serve the economy
tion of the 1980s and the recent S&L and bank failures.
better. Banks would be far safer and sounder. And risky
We now have a hybrid policy that satisfies no one. Gov-
ventures would be undertaken by sophisticated investors
ernment regulation is extensive but can be highly ineffec-
who can weigh the risks and rewards and accept losses with-
tive. Market discipline is exerted erratically. The stocks and
out a government bailout.
bonds of financial companies are whipsawed by shifts in
market judgments. But discipline is heavily watered down
BY HENRY KAUFMAN
by the behavior of most depositors, whose money is insured
HENRY KAUFMAN IS PRESIDENT OF HENRY KAUFMAN & CO., A NEW YORK MONEY
by the government.
MANAGEMENT AND FINANCIAL CONSULTING FIRM.
52
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
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1991 Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated. Member SIPC.
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ENROLL NOW
6 /B
The U.S.News Guide
To America's Best Colleges
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Educational equality. South African boys eat lunch together on the first day of integrated classes in Johannesburg last month.
Post-apartheid economics
The cost of reform
Even those with jobs earn 10 percent of
white incomes on average. The time ap-
in South Africa will
proaches when black gardeners will cast
their ballots beside white bankers, but
be staggering
few blacks can ever aspire to such a
profession. Only 36 percent of black
high-school seniors passed their final
ne year ago last week, the hopes
exams in December. Clearly, erasing
of black South Africans rose
the economic legacies of apartheid will
with the fist of Nelson Mandela,
prove much more difficult than wiping
as the newly freed prisoner brandished
its laws from the books.
a black-power salute to his cheering
After 43 years of segregation and
supporters. This year, expectations have
three centuries of economic develop-
been elevated again, as President F. W.
Together but unequal
ment skewed in favor of white inter-
de Klerk boldly proposed to scrap the
As barriers to equality fall in South Africa,
ests, South Africa is one of the most
laws that have racially classified each
the economic divide between whites and
unequal societies on earth. Some 7 mil-
South African and assigned each race
blacks becomes more apparent.
lion to 8 million blacks (roughly one
its own place to live. And compromises
Whites
Blacks
quarter of the total) live in shacks. A
made last week by both Mandela and
Unemployment
1%
11%
majority of black households exist be-
de Klerk should speed negotiations to-
Estimated housing
104,000
2,107,000
low the poverty line. Whites own all in-
ward giving all South Africans the vote.
shortage (units)
dustry and 83 percent of the land. And,
But just as dreams deferred helped
Pupils per
17:1
39:1
despite recent changes, state spending
make 1990 South Africa's most violent
teacher
on education, health care and pensions
year since unrest broke out in 1976, new
Annual per capita
$120
$61
remains strongly biased in favor of the
freedoms may frustrate their beneficia-
government health-
white minority.
ries. Soon, blacks will be permitted to
care spending
Correcting such inequality is bound
buy land, but few can afford property.
to be a major priority of any post-
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
PHOTO BY LOUISE GUBB JB PICTURES FOR USN&WR
53
After one million
two million
what do we do
Third Brake Light
Unibelt Lap and Shoulder
New "Child-Protection"
center mounted high inside
Restraints protect all front and
Lock on sliding door prevents
the lift gate is visible through
rear outboard passengers. These
the door from being unlatched
the rear window as an extra
restraints lock up instantly dur-
from the inside. "Kids can't open
signal to drivers behind you.
ing severe deceleration.
the door" while you're driving.
New 4-Wheel Anti-Lock Brakes
available. Help prevent wheel
lock-up, make braking safer and
surer. Also
let you
maneuver
during
hard
braking.
The First Minivan
Chrysler invented the minivan. We were first. Chrysler
minivans, we'll be the first to offer them congratulations.
puts driver-side air bags in every car we build in the U.S.**
For the past seven years the competition has been
Another first.
trying to catch us. Match our success. Our innovations.
The next step was a foregone conclusion Chrysler is
And always ended up a poor secondt
first with minivan air bags. And when Ford, GM and the
And this year, with our new aerodynamic styling and
imports get around to putting drivers' air bags in their
redesigned interiors it's true again. Especially in new
*The minivan air bag does not qualify as a passenger car passive restraint system. For added safety you must wear your seat belt. **Excludes vehicles built for Chrysler: Imports, Laser, Talon, Premier, Monaco, Summit. tBased on total sales.
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Minivans,
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The minivan air bag used with a lap/shoulder belt is the best
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wheel drive. You'll park like a pro too.
Make sure your new minivan has one.
New All-Wheel Drive
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Offers superior straight-
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better traction and
cornering ability on
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Power To Avoid Trouble.
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Dodge Caravan and Plymouth Voyager, we've also made
Dodge Caravan and Plymouth Voyager. The original.
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And still the leader. Beware of imitations.
Dodge
Advantage: Dodge
Plymouth
Advantage: Plymouth
LOUISE GUBB JB PICTURES
BUSINESS
apartheid government in South Africa.
But the costs of change will be stagger-
and perhaps unaffordable. Esti-
LIZO
mates put the ultimate price tag at any-
where from $20 billion to $120 billion.
Inflated expectations. According to
the African National Congress (ANC),
future black rule will mean "houses, se-
curity and comfort" for all. Yet the
South African reality is that black-white
parity will take decades to achieve if
current living standards are to be sus-
tained. "The greatest problem at the
moment is black expectations," says
Stellenbosch University's Servaas van
der Berg. "Apartheid has set levels of
privilege for whites far in excess of what
our Third World economy can afford.
Growth is impossible without redistri-
bution [of wealth], and redistribution is
Housing hardship. Roughly one quarter of all South African blacks live in shacks.
impossible without growth."
Educational inequality is likely to be
cost: At least $8 billion a year in extra
South Africa's black-white gap in-
the major challenge facing the new
expenditures will be needed to even out
trudes in a number of other ways. Pen-
South Africa. Since 1976, a generation of
standards. Another obstacle is popula-
sions for those whites who qualify are
blacks has had little or no schooling
tion growth. According to current pro-
84 percent larger than for blacks. Pen-
thanks to politically motivated disrup-
jections, South Africa's population (now
sion spending would have to balloon to
tion of the white-imposed education sys-
nearly 40 million) will swell to 60 million
achieve racial parity. Property owner-
tem. Producing equality of education
by the year 2010, doubling the number of
ship in a country with relatively little ar-
appears to be impossible. One reason is
school places needed for blacks.
able land favors whites; 40,000 white
farmers account for 80 percent of farm
output while 4 million rural blacks are
(Advertisement)
landless and jobless. And while most
whites enjoy adequate housing, provid-
ing enough homes for blacks means
building more than 1,000 units a day un-
til the end of the century-at an esti-
mated extra cost of $4 billion a year.
Looking outside their borders, South
African economists believe that the lift-
ing of sanctions could boost growth by 2
percent a year and lure badly needed
Sentimental Stevedore-If you're looking for a
foreign capital back to the country.
German Chancellor Helmut Kohl and
guy with that impossible combination of quali-
British Prime Minister John Major
agreed last week to lift sanctions within
ties, your ship has come in. I'm romantic and
months, as soon as Parliament in Cape
Town has followed de Klerk's lead by
vulnerable, yet junk yard dogs run the other way.
abolishing the last remnants of apart-
If a man with poetry in his soul, and a certain
heid legislation.
One way or another, apartheid's eco-
ineffable grittiness, sounds right for you, I could
nomic legacy will be central to policy
making in South Africa long after the
be the one. I'm 5'6", 190 lbs. I'm open-minded
last white supremacist has lost power. A
redistribution of wealth and resources
about your looks-it's your inner qualities that
appears certain. But if the process of
reform ends up weakening the free
count. Like being faithful to gas water heating.
market, deterring foreign investment
Gas heats water for 1/2 the cost of electricity.
and driving out skilled white labor,
South Africa-with its great potential
to become Africa's engine for growth in
the coming decades-will not be the
only one to suffer.
BY ROBIN KNIGHT WITH DON L. BOROUGHS
AND JIM JONES IN SOUTH AFRICA
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
HIGHER INTEREST RATES ARE ON THE WAY
BY JOHN RUTLEDGE
PAYROLL PAIN
A SYMPHONY OF BAD ECONOMIC NEWS. The stock market has been overrun by the bullish
112
mil.
herds, but the economic reports of the past two weeks have been downright grim. January car
111
and light-truck sales, for example, plunged 27.8 percent. U.S. auto makers announced 15 plant
closings and 40,000 layoffs. January nonfarm payroll employment fell by a whopping 232,000
110
jobs, its fourth large monthly decline in a row, and the unemployment rate inched up to 6.2 per-
NONAGRICULTURAL
109
PAYROLL EMPLOYEES
cent. As this symphony of bad news plays on, people are asking how long it will take for the
108
economy to return to normal once the war is over. What they are forgetting is that the economy
was already in bad shape last summer before most Americans had ever heard of Saddam Hus-
0
JFMAMJJASONDJ
sein. And a worldwide capital shortage in the 1990s is going to keep us from going back to the
1990
1991
good old days of 2 million housing starts and 10 million car sales per year.
To trim labor costs
and expand profit
Washington is currently scrambling to resuscitate the comatose economy. The Federal Reserve has
margins, firms began
pushed the discount rate, the rate that the Fed charges banks for loans, down again by another half
laying off employees
percentage point, to 6 percent. But we can't buy our way back to prosperity with low interest rates.
last summer.
THE GLOBAL CAPITAL SHORTAGE. Rates are falling in the United States now, but rising capital
SLOW STARTS
costs in other nations tell us that cheap money won't be available for long in this country. A
2
mil.
world capital crunch caused by a massive increase in demand for credit and new capital goods in
1.8
Germany and Eastern Europe will soon push real interest rates higher all over the world.
1.6
1.4
NEW
The burdensome task of rebuilding eastern Germany is going to cost the German government
PRIVATE
1.2
more than 5 percent of GDP in 1991. To raise the funds, the government will have to borrow
HOUSING
UNITS
1
huge sums. As a result, the legendary German trade surplus will be pushed into deficit this year.
8
All of this spending will increase domestic demand. To blunt inflation and to attract capital, the
0
1981 '83 '85 '87 '89'90
Bundesbank recently raised interest rates again.
Fading consumer
confidence and sluggish
The estimated cost of bringing productivity and living standards in Eastern Europe up to Western
European levels is somewhere between $1 trillion and $2 trillion. This is an effort of Marshall Plan
income growth have
plunged housing into a
proportions that is going to increase the demand for capital goods for decades. Growing credit de-
deep recession.
mands will not be limited to Eastern Europe. Market reforms in Western Europe mean higher
growth and increased capital spending by firms that seek a presence in Europe after 1992. Rapid
RISING RATES
growth in the Far East and Japan will lead to heavy capital spending there, too. Add to these needs
the war damage. Rebuilding Kuwait will cost more than $30 billion once the fighting stops. And
10%
Germany
9
the White House is already discussing the cost of helping to repair a damaged Iraq. Looking
U.S.
ahead, it's easy to envision multitrillion-dollar capital spending needs in the 1990s.
8
7
Japan
Japan and Germany will pay for their war participation in cash. And Kuwait will make a $23 bil-
6
YIELDS ON
GOVERNMENT
5
lion contribution. To raise this money, these nations will have to issue new debt offerings, which
BONDS
will push bond prices down and interest rates up. The overall result will be higher real interest
0
rates in the 1990s than those we learned to live with in the 1980s.
SOND
FMAMJ J ASOND
1989
1990
1991
Reunification of
How EXPENSIVE CAPITAL WILL HURT BUSINESS. These high real interest rates are going to
Germany is pushing up
have a major impact on U.S. business in the coming decade. Higher rates mean the United
its bond yields. This
States won't be able to consume its way out of its economic difficulties by jump-starting housing
surge will force other
starts and auto sales. There will have to be significant restructuring as capital goods and export
capital-hungry nations
industries grow at the expense of consumer-durable producers. And the rising cost of capital will
to increase rates.
increase pressure on managers to divest low-return assets in order to improve shareholder value.
These pressures will be especially strong in capital-intensive industries like banking, insurance
and utilities. It also means that government policy is going to have to switch from pushing inter-
est rates lower to helping the economy gradually adapt to the high cost of money.
Note: February bond yields reflect
latest quotes.
USN&WR-Basic data: U.S. Depts. of
Commerce and Labor, International
JOHN RUTLEDGE IS CHAIRMAN OF CLAREMONT ECONOMICS INSTITUTE, A CALIFORNIA-BASED
Monetary Fund, Salomon Bros.
MANAGEMENT CONSULTING AND INVESTMENT ADVISORY FIRM.
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
57
SCIENCE & SOCIETY
SITE PROJECTS INC.
Green Manhattan. James Wines's vision of the naked city
Designing in
hues of green
A new breed of architect is creating homes and
offices with the environment foremost in mind
Ancient technology. Housing constructed of
A
house is a machine for living in,"
aesthetic and pragmatic ends. Archi-
pueblos of the area's indigenous peo-
said French architect Le Corbu-
tects who were once marginalized as
ples and the geologic history of the val-
sier in 1923. And for most of the
"regional" and relegated to the out-
ley the houses overlook.
20th century, architects have carried on
skirts of the New York-centered archi-
Giving them shelter. But Predock's
a love affair with technology, paying
tectural establishment are now celebrat-
creations are also deft examples of pas-
progressively less heed to the natural
ed for their regionalism and sensitivity
sive heating and cooling, technologies
environment. Nearly lost was Frank
to the local environment. Albuquerque
that are increasingly capturing the at-
Lloyd Wright's dictum that, "No house
architect Antoine Predock, for example,
tention of the architectural community.
should ever be on any hill.
It should
has garnered a host of international
The La Luz houses are remarkably ef-
be of the hill, belonging to it, so hill and
awards and prestigious commissions be-
fective shelters, moderating the extreme
house could live together each the hap-
cause, as New York Times architecture
desert temperatures far better than
pier for the other."
critic Paul Goldberger put it, "He de-
could buildings that were more alien to
Now, Wright's organic approach to ar-
signs buildings deeply ingrained in the
the site. Adobe acts as a thermal stor-
chitecture is once again ascendant, em-
traditions and spirit of a place yet un-
age system. During the day, the 16-inch-
braced by architects and designers in-
like anything we have seen before."
thick walls absorb heat slowly enough
spired by the global green movement and
Predock's buildings are at once beau-
that the interior remains cool. Only at
eager to lend their skills to protecting
tiful and supremely functional, both
night, when the temperature drops pre-
and preserving the environment. They
qualities that grow out of his intimate
cipitously, does the stored heat reach
are seeking out recycled and renewable
understanding of the desert Southwest.
the interior. To defend against dust
materials, devising low-energy heating
In Albuquerque, his La Luz luxury
storms and the late afternoon summer
and cooling systems, addressing the high
housing development rises like an ab-
sun, Predock left the western walls win-
levels of indoor air pollution and bring-
stract version of the mesas that sur-
dowless, while to the east he opened
ing wind, water and trees back into urban
round it. The houses, clustered along
the buildings to views of the Rio Gran-
environments. In the process, they are
the ridgetop, leave undisturbed the
de and the mountains beyond.
redefining notions of architectural chic,
fragile riverside habitat and permit
Predock's use of passive heating and
replacing the opulence of the '80s with a
open space to be preserved in a single
cooling methods contrasts with the
simpler and less gilded style.
broad expanse. Made of sun-dried ado-
high-tech energy-conservation strate-
What's more, they are again integrat-
be, some of it made of sand excavated
gies of the 1970s, which often created as
ing architecture with landscape, to both
on the site, they are linked to both the
many problems as they solved. When
58
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
PETER MENZEL
Similarly, California architect
Sim Van Der Ryn shuns
forced-air heating systems,
which blast dust and bacteria
into the air supply, in favor of
passive solar and radiant heat,
which is not only cleaner but
also uses substantially less en-
ergy. He advocates installing
insulation on the outside
rather than the inside of air
ducts to prevent the shedding
of toxic fibers; sealing water
pipes to prevent leaching of
lead and other toxins into the
water supply; keeping humid-
ity levels low to discourage
microbial growth, and incor-
porating design features that
protect against rodents, ter-
mites and water rot, minimiz-
ing the need for pesticides,
fungicides or preservatives.
Green-backed dollars. Ad-
mittedly, there is a cost to all
this. McDonough estimates
the nontoxic "surcharge" at
about 25 percent. But envi-
ronmental planning can also
save money: New York archi-
tect Randolph Croxton's ren-
ovation of the Natural Re-
sources Defense Council
headquarters in Manhattan,
for example, cost $68 per
square foot, $14 higher than
"rammed earth," in which local soil is compacted with cement, dates back to the third century B.C.
the going rate. The NRDC
says it hopes to recoup some of
architects sealed new buildings and did
New York architect William McDon-
its investment in lowered energy bills and
away with operable windows, they also
ough's Manhattan headquarters for the
reduced incidence of employee illness.
sealed in the highly toxic gases and fi-
Environmental Defense Fund is a model
As the demand for nontoxic materials
bers emitted by paints, finishes, glues,
of nontoxic design. McDonough re-
increases, more manufacturers are mov-
insulation, fungicides and wood preser-
placed plywood and particle board, both
ing into the market and the cost of ma-
vatives. As a result, according to the
of which are known to emit formalde-
terials is gradually dropping. Until re-
Environmental Protection Agency, in-
hyde, with solid wood, had carpets
cently, Connecticut architect Paul
door spaces are now five times more
tacked rather than glued, substituted
Bierman-Lytle had to import many of
polluted on average than the outdoors.
beeswax for polyurethane on office
his materials from Germany, often pay-
Unfortunately, architects today have
floors and installed windows that open.
ing a third more than he would for a
only fragmentary information
JEFFREY MacMILLAN
domestic product. But next
on the toxicity of many com-
fall, Bierman-Lytle plans to
mon building materials; and
open what he calls a "21st
although a few highly toxic
century lumberyard" in Los
materials like asbestos are
Angeles. There he will sell
now regulated, most still are
more than 5,000 environmen-
not. To remedy that deficien-
tally sound American-made
cy, the American Institute of
building products to archi-
Architects recently began
tects and contractors around
work on an Environmental
the country, including insula-
Resources Guide, which will
tion derived from a seawater
provide chemical analyses of
mineral and wood finishes
commonly used materials and
made of such ingredients as
list less toxic alternatives.
citrus peel and juniper ber-
Though the project will re-
ries. In fact, cost calculations
quire years to complete, sever-
may shift dramatically in fa-
al architects have already
vor of nontoxic builders in
made progress in improving
the coming months, as class-
the quality of indoor air.
La Luz in Albuquerque. Antoine Predock's "abstract landscape"
action suits in the hundreds
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
59
PETER ESTO
of billions of dollars are
porating chunks of rub-
filed against paint manu-
ble from World War II,
facturers, architects and
and its shimmering skin
developers for the public
will be made of recycled
health hazard posed by
aluminum.
toxic building practices.
Architects are also
For buildings already
looking beyond individ-
standing, green plants
ual buildings to the re-
may help safeguard air
shaping of urban and sub-
quality. A recent study by
urban environments, as
the National Aeronautics
well as the transportation
and Space Administra-
that links them. A recent
tion and the Associated
study of the Los Angeles
Landscape Contractors
river basin at the South-
of America found that
ern California Institute of
common houseplants can
Architecture (SCIARC)
remove as much as 70
makes clear just how
percent of the pollutants
much damage urban
in indoor air. Different
planners have done. With
plants "scrub" different
the miles of paving in Los
chemicals: Gerbera dai-
Angeles, rainwater can
sies and English ivy, for
no longer seep into the
instance, absorb large
Berkeley Hills. Solar-heated house by Steve Badanes and Jim Adamson
ground. Instead, it floods
quantities of formalde-
the river basin, washing
hyde and greatly reduce benzene levels.
tablished to help architects navigate this
heavy metals off buildings and streets
Researchers recommend using one plant
moral maze, such a ban would be a bad
directly into the sea. At the same time,
per 100 square feet in offices and homes.
idea. Eliminating the market for these
the aquifer continues to be depleted, bad
Designer marshes. Researchers are
woods, they argue, would simply de-
news in a state now suffering from the
now developing a hydroponic system,
press their value and diminish the local
worst drought in history.
with plants rooted in liquid nutrients,
incentive to conserve and manage the
Developers should be required to use
which enhances their capacity to clean
forests. Instead, they urge architects to
permeable paving and leave some per-
air. They are also exploring the possibil-
specify wood produced in sustainable
centage of space unpaved, argues Steven
ity of constructing artificial marshes to
plantations, difficult as it is at present
Flusty, a graduate student instrumental
help purify water within large building
to verify the origins of lumber.
in the SCIARC study. Flusty also con-
complexes. Some have still more radical
In a further effort to minimize their
demns the builders of downtown Los
ambitions. New York architect James
impact on endangered resources, some
Angeles for ignoring wind patterns.
Wines proposes planting Manhattan's
architects are exploring the use of recy-
Clustered high-rises, he argues, block
rooftops, preferably with edible plants
cled materials or composites made from
westerly winds that might otherwise help
and fruit-bearing trees. "Each tree," he
such waste products as wood pulp, dis-
clear the heavily polluted air in the poor
points out, referring to its oxygen pro-
carded plastic and chopped foam. The
neighborhoods of East Los Angeles.
duction, "lets four people breathe."
most ambitious use of such materials
Planners are pursuing a so-called village
Green-minded architects are equally
will be William McDonough's skyscrap-
model for new suburbs, recovering a
concerned with the environmental costs
er for Warsaw, soon to be the tallest
small-town mix of houses and shops
of mining, processing, manufacturing
building in Eastern Europe. Literally
built around public transportation. "Na-
and disposing of building materials. For
rising from the ashes of history, the
ture mixes," says Wines. "Ecology is not
its resources guide, the AIA will ana-
building will have a concrete base incor-
isolation but integration."
lyze the entire "life cycle" of materials,
Though "green" architecture may
JEFFREY MacMILLAN USN&WR
as will the European Community in
seem a leap into the future, it draws
awarding its newly devised "green" la-
upon the most ancient of principles.
bel for environmentally sound goods.
The bedouin tent, after all, has for cen-
Aluminum, for instance, is anything but
turies tamed the searing desert heat,
green at the outset: Bauxite mining,
casting a dark, cool shadow and creat-
most of which takes place in the Third
ing cooling breezes by generating its
World, is extremely destructive to the
own convection currents. Similarly, the
environment, and huge amounts of
straw roof on a desert mud hut deflects
electricity are required for purification.
the summer sun and seals in heat in the
But aluminum is redeemed at the end
winter, when the mud walls soak up the
of its cycle, to some degree, by being so
warmth of the low-lying sun. These age-
easy to recycle.
old structures succeed as shelters be-
Assessing the environmental costs of
cause they are "of the desert," as
the use of tropical woods is equally
Wright might put it. Says Predock:
complex. Concern about the destruc-
"Good architecture has always had
tion of the rain forests has led a number
these values. You can't build well with-
of architects to shun luxurious woods
out thinking about site and climate and
like mahogany and propose a blanket
the essence of place."
ban on importation. But in the view of
Earth Access, a Boston-based group es-
Out of rubble. McDonough and model
BY MIRIAM HORN
60
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
SCIENCE & SOCIETY
vice program that exploited very similar
principles suggests that ZOO keepers and
social workers ought to talk. In a Univer-
The biological roots
sity of Rochester-run program, nurses
cultivated warm relationships with new
mothers by regularly visiting them in
of good mothering
their homes, from near the onset of preg-
nancy until the children's second birth-
day. The nurses showed the new mothers
how to play and talk to a child, much as
Studies of man's closest evolutionary cousins
older primates demonstrate mothering
skills. Just as researchers have learned
may offer lessons on how to prevent child abuse
the value of keeping new monkey moth-
ers with the pack, the nurses encouraged
close friends and relatives to assist new
n most counts, humans outdo
times beating and in extreme cases fa-
mothers. Perhaps equally as crucial, they
apes. But no matter how much
tally injuring their own babies. The
reduced stress in ways comparable to the
men and women pride them-
researchers subsequently identified the
measures used with apes and monkeys:
selves on the table manners and heavenly
unnatural social isolation imposed on
Where the primatologists sought to ease
symphonies that raise them above the
the primates in captivity as the leading
stress caused by cramped or barren hous-
animal world, the "inferior" primates
culprit in abuse. And faced with declin-
ing, the Rochester nurses reduced family
may still have lessons to teach their evo-
ing primate populations and interna-
tensions by helping the impoverished
lutionary betters about one of the most
tional limits on animal imports, many
mothers find jobs and obtain benefits. In
troublesome social issues of
MICHAEL DICK ANIMALS ANIMALS
the end, only 4 percent of the
the 1990s: child abuse.
low-income teen mothers who
The provocative notion that
received nurse visits neglected
parents could learn from ap-
or abused their children, com-
ing the apes is based on a se-
pared with 19 percent of those
ries of recent studies of cap-
who did not. They even suc-
tive primates. In zoos and
ceeded with the equivalent of
research centers across the
motherless mothers, teaching
country, primatologists and
parents who were themselves
ZOO keepers are discovering
abused as children how to
that they can dramatically re-
trust in their abilities as nur-
duce mothers' maltreatment
turant parents.
of their infants through a few
There is one important dif-
simple strategies: by providing
ference, however, between
more livable quarters, by al-
abusive humans and animals:
lowing other female pri-
Primates apparently learn
mates the equivalent of
much more quickly. National
aunts and cousins-to help
Institutes of Health primatol-
out and reduce the stress of
ogist Stephen Suomi says just
parenting, and by exposing in-
Ape lessons. Many animals need to learn good parenting.
two days of contact with new-
experienced mothers to good
born infants made primate
mothers in action. These examples from
researchers realized they had to alter
females more likely to hug and feed
the animal world are beginning to catch
the primates' environment if the ani-
their own infants. By contrast, research-
the attention of pediatricians, some of
mals were to thrive. They made sure
ers such as David Olds, designer of the
whom are calling for similar reforms in
biological mothers reared infants in
Rochester program, have found that
human child abuse prevention programs.
more spacious group settings, compara-
the only programs that really reduce
Finding the culprit. Primatologists only
ble to what they would experience in
abuse are intensive and long-lasting.
began reducing neglect and abuse
the wild. They similarly exposed the
Innovative researchers learned how to
among apes when they discovered that
previously motherless primates to play
reduce abuse among monkeys and apes
their efforts to protect primate infants
with infants and peers, and introduced
because they couldn't tolerate seeing
often had the paradoxical effect of en-
older mothers to help with the new
their animals maltreated. But that sense
dangering them. Due largely to now out-
mothers' caretaking. They found that
of necessity is not yet so evident to man.
moded ideas on how to protect newborn
inexperienced and even abusive moth-
Just recently, pediatrician Ray Helfer,
primates from disease and assault, ZOO
ers, once given examples of good moth-
co-author of "The Battered Child," dis-
keepers used to remove new mothers
ering and a chance to play with infants,
charged a teenage mother from the hos-
and their infants from the simian com-
became competent parents themselves.
pital to a cramped two-room apartment
munity, or remove the infants from the
Today, as few as 2 percent of primate
in a cocaine-infested neighborhood;
mothers and raise them in a "nursery."
mothers abuse or neglect their babies,
Helfer says he couldn't have legally sent
But scientists began to notice that
compared to an incidence of about 75
a chimp to such a place. "The animals
primates born and raised in this manner
percent in the 1970s.
are telling us children's lives can be
often grew up to be lousy parents.
Animal research findings don't often
turned around," says Helfer, "but we
Roughly 3 out of 4 of the so-called
translate easily into solutions to human
have to put our minds to it."
motherless mothers rebuffed the ap-
problems, and the ape work is no excep-
proaches of their own infants, some-
tion. But at least one existing social ser-
BY ART LEVINE
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
61
SCIENCE & SOCIETY
over in the White House or State Depart-
ment than they do about the troops they
compromise and misuse in places like
War novels from
Beirut and the Persian Gulf."
In his life as well as in his writing, the
former Naval Academy boxer pulls no
a man who knows
punches. In 1988, Webb quit as Navy sec-
retary rather than go along with budget
cuts that he thought would be harmful.
While in office, he fought a losing battle
James Webb has done his share of battling, both
against the U.S. tilt to Iraq during the
1987-88 Persian Gulf crisis and opposed
as a grunt and as a Washington bureaucrat
deployment of the Navy to the gulf. He
also found himself in the minority when
he wrote a controversial 1979
CHARLIE ARCHAMBAULT
F
rom his eighth-floor office in Ar-
magazine article opposing ad-
lington, Va., James Webb has a
mission of women to the ser-
breathtaking vantage point from
vice academies, a stance he
which to contemplate the use and abuse
has since softened. "Jim is not
of power in the city that lies before him.
a go-along guy," says Norman
As he looks out at the Potomac River,
Qualtrough, a former Webb
Webb can see symbols of both what he
aide. At Annapolis, Webb
loves and what he loathes about Wash-
learned a motto that still
ington. In the distance looms the dome
guides him: "When principle
of the Capitol, where Webb once
is involved, be deaf to expedi-
worked as a congressional aide. To the
ency." It is a philosophy that
right sits the Pentagon, where Webb
others in his family have also
served as an assistant secretary of de-
followed. His maternal grand-
fense and, later, as secretary of the
father was ostracized in rural
Navy in the Reagan administration.
Arkansas because he helped
Down below, the Iwo Jima Memorial
blacks to read. "He stood up
salutes the valor of American Marines
for what he believed in and
like Webb, a Vietnam hero who has
lost everything," says Webb.
gone on to become a noted novelist.
It was at Georgetown Law
Webb, a graduate of the Naval Acade-
School, which he entered after
my, is descended from a long line of
wounds suffered in Vietnam
fighting men dating back before the
ended his Marine service, that
American Revolution, and his books
Webb transformed himself
serve as testimony to the heroism of
from warrior to wordsmith.
troops in battle. "There is one consisten-
Writing was his way of re-
cy in my novels," says Webb, "and that is
sponding to a professor's hos-
a great respect for the people who have
Webb of intrigue. A cynical view of the Pentagon
tile comments about Vietnam
to implement U.S. military policy." But
veterans. What began as a ca-
the much decorated war veteran-win-
are not based on members of the Bush
tharsis became a career.
ner of the Navy Cross, the Silver Star,
administration. "What I tried to do," he
Despite his writing success, Webb will
two Bronze Stars and two Purple
explains, "is put a human face on major
not close the door on the possibility of re-
Hearts-shows no such respect for civil-
issues," including the readiness of politi-
entering public life some day, only this
ians who order troops into battle for the
cal leaders to send troops to fight without
time as a political candidate. In 1988, he
wrong reasons. In his new novel, "Some-
having clear goals and their unwilling-
turned down a chance to be the Republi-
thing To Die For" (Morrow, $19.95),
ness to come to grips with America's
can candidate for a U.S. Senate seat from
Webb tells of a brave Marine officer sent
growing loss of economic independence.
Virginia because he did not want people
by ambitious and cowardly leaders to
Leaks, schemes, lies. The book's harsh
to think that his decision to quit as Navy
fight, and ultimately to perish, in a far-
view of political power will likely make it
secretary resulted from ulterior motives.
away place. "It's a worst-case scenario
the talk of Washington. The capital, says
Charles McCarry sees in Webb the po-
that happened to come true on a grand
Webb, is a place "where an unelected
tential to be a modern Lincoln or Chur-
scale," argues CIA-agent-turned-novel-
aristocracy wields so much influence be-
chill. Says McCarry: "There is no limit to
ist Charles McCarry, who is a friend of
hind the scenes." In the novel, they leak
what he can become in American life."
the author's. Webb, who has opposed the
to the press, scheme against one another
Wherever his ambitions lead him,
commitment of U.S. troops to the Per-
and lie to the public. The city's dynamics
Webb will stay close to his military
sian Gulf, describes the book as "a delib-
are summed up by the ill-fated hero:
roots. His office is filled with reminders
erate allegory on where the nation is in
"God save me from the manipulative bu-
of Marine history: some sand from Iwo
the post-cold-war world." But he takes
reaucrats in polyester-wool suits, button-
Jima, a glass bottle from Saipan and
great pains to distance the novel, much
down collars and power ties and the kiss-
rocks from Corregidor. James Webb re-
of which is set in Eritrea, from real events
ass officers who let them get away with it.
mains a marine at heart. He would have
and people. The book, completed more
I don't need to see my men die because
it no other way.
than a year ago, is not about the current
somebody cares more about helping the
conflict, he contends, and the characters
careers of their fellow madrigal singers
BY ALVIN P. SANOFF
62
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
ON SPORTS
BY TOM CALLAHAN
Basketball's big gamble
C
oach Jerry Tarkanian, who might be called the lead-
to all the booster club cash and illicit automobiles that pop
ing rebounder in college basketball, collected Greg
up regularly in the news, "then he can be paid to miss one.
Anthony from the University of Portland in Oregon,
To this cynicism add the understated elegance of Las
Elmore Spencer from Connors State Junior College in
Vegas, where Runnin' Rebels who fall short of the Na-
Oklahoma, Larry Johnson from Odessa College in Texas
tional Basketball Association routinely embrace what the
and George Ackles from Garden City Community Junior
city euphemistically terms the "gaming" business. "It's not
College in Kansas. He brought them, together with two of
a hard profession to break into," said a former forward
the least celebrated high-school recruits in the country,
who worked his way up from blackjack dealer to pit boss.
Stacey Augmon from Pasadena,
PAUL SUTTON DUOMO
"All you have to do is count to 21."
Calif., and Anderson Hunt from De-
Next, calculate the presence of
troit, to the University of Nevada at
Coach Tarkanian, "Tark the Shark,"
Las Vegas. They are being called the
the National Collegiate Athletic As-
best team of all time.
sociation's premier adversary, who
For Las Vegas to have a team, let
once joked that he preferred transfer
alone the best the defending
students because "their cars are al-
national champions, undefeated and
ready paid for." Finally this season,
virtually unchallenged this season -
following a 13-year battle all the way
is either a horror or a delight. Colle-
to the Supreme Court, Tarkanian had
giate basketball operates the most
to submit to NCAA justice for recruit-
pervasive sewer in sports. But its his-
ing violations. Strangely, the two-year
toric worry, beyond the normal aca-
suspension they had been wrestling
demic shams, recruiting frauds and
over for all that time was put aside,
drug crimes, is gambling. Suddenly
and UNLV was offered a multiple-
the nation's casino has a college bas-
choice penalty for stale sins. Either
ketball team no one will bet against.
forgo the tournament this year or lose
Some weathered coaches, like Lou
the tournament and regular-season
Carnesecca of St. John's University in
television fees next year. The NCAA
Jamaica, N.Y., pull out a yellowed
knew Tarkanian had a wonderful
scrapbook every year so today's play-
team. He elected the latter.
ers are aware of the industry's 1951
Enough of the horror; now consid-
sorrow, of the shoe box full of money
er the theory of delight.
Ed Warner of the City College of New
Although indoor fireworks precede
York hid in his aunt's basement, of
Howling rebel. Tarkanian of Las Vegas
the games and international headlin-
Long Island University's Sherman
ers sometimes sing the national an-
White and 30 other confessed point shavers of lore.
them, many citizens regard going to see the Runnin' Rebels
"All scandals are ugly," Arthur Daley wrote at the time in
as the closest thing to a normal activity in town. Betting on
The New York Times, "but this college basketball scandal is
UNLV not only is illegal, it is described by locals as immor-
a particularly vicious one because it touches the presumably
al, that rarest concept of all. A player who wandered onto
untouched." Nobody would use that phrase today.
the Strip would be reported to Tarkanian in a drum roll.
Foul shots. The hit movie "GoodFellas," which recounts
"We don't get the McDonald's or Parade All-Americas," he
the bloody adventures of mob informer Henry Hill and his
says, "but no program in the country has better kids."
main informee, Jimmy "The Gent" Burke, neglects their
While he may look like an outlaw actually, he looks
sporting life. Only a passing reference mentions the games
like an all-night poker Tarkanian is held in open
they rigged at Boston College in 1979. Turning state's evi-
esteem by fellow coaches. Even the rules sticklers, such
dence in New York's fabled Lufthansa robbery, Hill provid-
as Indiana's Bobby Knight, speak of him warmly and
ed a calendar of his daily whereabouts to federal officers,
with respect. "He belongs up there with the best coach-
who were surprised by his devotion to the Eagles. Oh yeah,
es," says retired UCLA wizard John Wooden, 81, the
Hill explained brightly, those games were fixed.
usual benchmark.
An extra count against Burke, already well sentenced for
Knight's 1976 team was the last to go undefeated (32-
extortion, represented the prosecution's sole interest in BC
0). Wooden had four unbeaten teams in the course of 10
forward Rick Kuhn, a young man with old eyes who accept-
championships. "If they win two years in a row," Wooden
ed both cash and cocaine in return for manipulating the
says with a twinkle, "that will be quite an accomplish-
scores. He got 10 years.
ment." UCLA won seven in a row.
Almost nobody believed Kuhn was the only touchable
Nolan Richardson, the Arkansas coach, was less re-
player in the nation, or that the Boston College-Princeton
strained last week when his second-ranked Razorbacks
game was the solitary kind worth dumping. Sure enough,
were throttled in their own gym by UNLV. "We played
before long, Tulane was making similar headlines. "If a kid
the second-best team in the NBA today," he said. He has
can be paid to hit a shot," said old star Bob Cousy, referring
an exaggerated opinion of the Portland Trail Blazers.
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
63
NEWS YOU CAN USE
Is the
Bull
Back?
The Dow's breath-stopping 400-point
climb began January 16, the day the
war in the Persian Gulf broke out. It is
hard to find a bear on Wall Street these
days; most gurus think the run-up is no one-month
fling. Here is a sampling of opinions and strategies
from four bulls and a bear.
STEVEN EINHORN
45 percent a month ago. Thirty to 35
Chief portfolio strategist
percent should be in bonds, and any re-
mainder should be in cash.
GOLDMAN SACHS
Einhorn also doesn't see the econo-
Steven
Einhorn's
my resuming its growth until midsum-
epiphany came at the
mer, and the bounce-back won't neces-
beginning of Febru-
sarily be robust. So he favors stocks that
ary, two weeks after
can deliver strong earnings gains even
the market began its
in a slow recovery, and he continues to
phenomenal rise. The
spurn shares of cyclical companies like
sharp drop in interest
automobile, paper and chemical firms,
rates engineered by
which depend on a snappier rebound.
the Federal Reserve Board in the weeks
"Large, medium and small-company
before convinced him that the central
growth stocks will be the favorite theme
bank really would do anything to rev up
for this bull market," he asserts.
the economy. "This is a stock market
Drug stocks, while pricey, remain at-
responding to a sudden extreme easing
tractive to Einhorn, who names Merck,
of monetary policy," he declares.
Bristol-Myers Squibb and Abbott Labo-
That doesn't mean Einhorn sees a line
ratories. In the tobacco, food and con-
pointing straight up. He expects a cor-
sumer category, he picks Philip Morris,
rection, but thinks it will amount to no
Tambrands, Colgate-Palmolive and Gil-
more than 5 to 7 percent, or 200 Dow
lette. Specialty retailers include Wal-
points at most, and should be seen as a
Mart, the Gap, the Limited and Albert-
correction within a major new bull mar-
son's. In computers, he likes fast growing
ket. "The single most attractive place to
Compaq, Microsoft, Sun Microsystems
put money now is in the stock market,"
and Automatic Data Processing. And in
says Einhorn. He advises long-term in-
the financial areas, he selects Fannie
vestors to have 60 to 65 percent of their
Mae, Freddie Mac, Sallie Mae and insur-
portfolio assets in stocks, up from 40 to
er American International Group.
64
PHOTO BY ALEX QUESADA MATRIX FOR USN&WR
ILLUSTRATION BY ROB KEMP FOR USN&WR
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
it for big profits when the auto business
sidering their portfolio strategies due to
recovers. Dana Corp. and Echlin are
this analysis," Nakao says.
auto-parts suppliers he likes. Chemicals
In the near term, Nakao sees the Dow
producer Monsanto and paper makers
Jones industrials climbing as high as 3300
Scott and Kimberly-Clark are favorites
within three months, falling back along
because they will benefit from a recovery
the way no more than 5 percent, or about
but be reasonably priced compared with
150 points. "We are definitely not going
other cyclicals. Big construction compa-
to see the Dow drop back to the 2300s,'
nies that he says should benefit when
he states confidently. His current picks
Kuwait and perhaps Iraq-are rebuilt
include many of the market's recent top
are Fluor, Foster Wheeler and Morrison
performers, well-known names that typi-
Knudsen, as well as oil-drilling-service
cally appeal to Japanese investors. After
companies Dresser and Halliburton. A
an expected correction for the high-fly-
continuing slump in the dollar to near-
ing technology and biotechnology
record lows should favor future export
shares, Nakao recommends purchase of
sales by U.S. capital-goods companies,
Compaq Computer, Intel, Novell, and
says Canelo. His selections: Caterpillar,
Chiron in the biotechnology category.
Ingersoll-Rand and Cooper Industries.
Among cyclical stocks, he picks Alcoa,
Canelo says he saw the advance com-
International Paper and Dow Chemical.
ing last November, when short- and long-
term interest rates fell. "With the Dow
ALFRED GOLDMAN
then under 2500, stocks began to look
Chief portfolio strategist
like such bargains," he says. The market
has just passed the halfway point in its
A.G. EDWARDS
move up, he believes. Further gains will
"It's a mistake for in-
come harder, but Canelo predicts the
vestors to say, 'I
Dow Jones industrial average will reach
missed the rally' and
3200 in the next six to 12 months.
leave it at that, says
Alfred Goldman of
SEIYU NAKAO
A.G. Edwards, a St.
Chief strategist
Louis-based retail
brokerage. After a
NOMURA
500-point gain in the Dow since last Oc-
Deterred by the con-
tober, investors reentering the market
tinued fall in the dol-
may need to be more cautious, he con-
lar against the yen,
cedes, "but they should nonetheless err
Japanese stock inves-
on the buy side." Waiting for lower prices
tors have largely
before buying may prove frustrating, says
PETER CANELO
avoided U.S. shares
Goldman, since prices rise in a bull mar-
Chief investment strategist
during the recent bull
ket and stocks can stay overbought for
run; a weakening dol-
quite a while. But as some backtracking
COUNTY NATWEST
lar cuts down on their gains here. But
invariably occurs, many of this year's big-
Investors who haven't
Seiyu Nakao of Nomura, the Japanese
gest movers may become available at
participated in the re-
securities giant, has been very bullish on
lower prices. Investors should be poised
cent runup should
U.S. stocks and feels the American mar-
to buy shares they like at the first sign of
"jump into stocks
ket will outperform most others in 1991
price weakness. Goldman recommends
with both feet," de-
and perhaps over the next several years.
three financial stocks-BankAmerica,
clares Peter Canelo,
Moreover, once the dollar bottoms,
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac-as well
who just moved to
funds from Japan and from other foreign
as Philip Morris, General Electric, Waste
County NatWest, an
countries could again move forcefully
Management and Toys 'R' Us among the
English-owned brokerage based in New
into U.S. equities, providing more fuel
blue-chip growth stocks.
York, from Bear Stearns. He would
for the current stock market advance.
Even at current levels, says Goldman,
avoid the pacesetters like computer and
A new research report from Nomura
some stocks remain good buys. He cites
biotechnology stocks. And he feels that
underlies Nakao's optimism. The report
utilities, which just recently broke out of
many blue-chip growth stocks are over-
concludes that Japanese industry no
a 15-month downtrend. Investors who
priced and have less room to move
longer is indomitable. U.S. manufactur-
buy utility stocks, which because of their
higher. "Having missed this initial move
ers, according to the report, now com-
high yields tend to go up in price as com-
up, investors have no choice but to look
pete in world markets more effectively
peting bond yields decline, can expect
for laggards," he asserts.
than their Japanese counterparts and
price appreciation of at least 8 percent
Canelo parts company with Einhorn
no longer lag in research and develop-
over the coming year on top of annual
on cyclical stocks. Car makers and their
ment efforts that pump innovative
dividends. Goldman suggests Wisconsin
suppliers, capital-goods producers and
products into those markets. Based on
Energy, currently yielding 5.4 percent,
brokerages are among the groups still
these findings, the survey strongly urges
and Commonwealth Edison at 7.8 per-
catching up to the market and represent
Japanese financial institutions to in-
cent. Other stocks that have been over-
good value, Canelo believes. The car
crease their holdings of U.S. stocks over
looked until recently and are still good
company to buy, he says, is General Mo-
the next five years. "Many Japanese in-
deals, in his view, are United Technolo-
tors: Its tough cost cutting has positioned
stitutional investors are actively recon-
gies, a diversified aerospace company;
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
CANELO AND NAKAO PHOTOS BY ALEX QUESADA MATRIX FOR USN&WR, GOLDMAN PHOTO BY KEVIN HORAN FOR USN&WR
65
Is this your idea
5551221
2
Kenny's
TOWING SERVICE
If you're relying on another set of
you'll find both power and efficiency
wheels to get around, maybe it's time
when you step on the gas.
to place your trust in the Honda Civic
An easy-shifting five-speed manual
4-Door Sedan.
transmission puts you in touch with the
People have been counting on the
engine. Or if you prefer, a four-speed
Civic for years. It's one of the reasons
automatic is available that does the job
Honda has been first in Import Owner
just as well.
Loyalty for 13 consecutive years:
While you can't see the four-wheel
Let's start with the nuts and bolts
double wishbone suspension system,
of the matter. There's a 16-valve single
you can certainly feel it. The Civic
overhead cam 4-cylinder engine. With
Sedan's ride is smooth. The handling,
a Programmed Fuel Injection system,
responsive and stable.
© 1990 American Honda Motor Co., Inc. *R.L. Polk & Co., Leading Import Sales Analysis, 1/90.
of a second car?
Hrs.
The Civic 4-Door is as spacious
It's the careful attention to all the
as it is reliable. Room for five adults to
details that makes the Civic 4-Door a
stretch out. With large contoured front
car as dependable as it is. And isn't that
and rear seats, plush carpeting and rich
the whole idea?
cloth upholstery, this sedan is a very
H
N
D
A
comfortable way to travel.
Even the stylish body adds to your
The Civic 4Door
personal comfort. Wind noise is reduced
by the aerodynamic profile. Interior
acoustics are further hushed by the rigid
construction, nearly flush window glass
and triple door seals.
NEWS YOU CAN USE
investment concern managing about
detectors, whose stock price jumped
$135 million for wealthy clients, Perkins
from $6 to $13 despite paltry earnings.
Melville Corp., a specialty retailing
doesn't figure on a complete recovery
He does pick a few plums. Natural-
chain; Time Warner, a media conglomer-
for stocks until the economy regains
gas stocks like Plains Petroleum and
ate; Bob Evans Farms, a restaurant chain
some pep. "The market believes that
Wainoco Oil offer good value, Perkins
that trades over the counter, and Com-
the war is the major cause of the eco-
says, since the stocks aren't directly tied
merce Bancshares, a Kansas City-based
nomic downturn and [that] the resolu-
to the economy and because more folks
bank holding company.
tion of hostilities will cause an upturn.
are expected to switch to the cheaper
I don't buy that."
fuel during the '90s. Perkins also sees
MARC PERKINS
In fact, Perkins figures the economy
opportunities among thrifts, particular-
Chairman
could get worse before it gets better,
ly Bankers Corp and Harmonia Ban-
meaning stocks could plummet by 600
corp, a pair of New Jersey companies.
PERKINS, SMITH
or 700 points. "We're still paying the
Another potential gem is Universal
Marc Perkins is any-
bill for the 1980s," he says. "You can't
Health Realty Income Trust, a health-
thing but persuaded
buy a new car until you've corrected the
care real-estate investment trust. Uni-
that the recent surge
debt on the old one."
versal owns and leases out hospital
in stock prices is a
"The thinking man's stock picker," as
properties. The specialized REIT sells
sign of a nascent bull
Barron's crowned him, is generally ad-
for about $12 and offers a $1.48 divi-
market. What inves-
vising clients to sit this one out. "Right
dend. But caution remains the order of
tors have witnessed
now we like liquidity," he says. Perkins
business. "Our theory is that you don't
instead, he says, is a
is steering investors away from big "fa-
have to be invested all the time," says
temporary rally in a sticky bear market.
vorite 50" stocks like Coca-Cola or
Perkins. "Sometimes not losing money
The chairman of the Tampa brokerage
Philip Morris and is urging clients to be
is a pretty good strategy."
Perkins, Smith, who doubles as a princi-
wary of war-related "story stocks." One
pal at Private Capital Management, an
example: Thermedics, a maker of bomb
BY JACK EGAN AND EDWARD C. BAIG
THE FEAR FACTOR
cash sitting on the sidelines and a buying panic by big-
time portfolio managers who worry they will look bad if
A runaway market
they finish the quarter underinvested in stocks. "The
prime motivation driving this market right now is fear,"
states Robert Nurock, editor of the Advisory, a newsletter
T
he stock market's theme song these days is "Don't
published in Paoli, Pa. "Given such tremendous pressure
Worry, Be Happy." And why not? With the Dow
and emotion, this rally could last longer, but that does not
Jones industrial average up more than 400 points in a
necessarily mean, as many analysts are forecasting, that
month and broader indexes like the Standard & Poor's
the market is heading for the stratosphere."
500 hitting all-time highs last week, Wall Street is natural-
So if you haven't gone back into the market or you
ly jubilant. Investors are racing for a pot of gold.
feel underinvested in stocks, what do you do? You can
But where's the rainbow? Too many of these new bull
join the buying blitz out of fear. Or you can be patient
converts refuse to face up to some genuine concerns. Not
and wait for a future opportunity to purchase stocks
the least of these is the steep slope of the market's upward
when prices are lower. Nurock favors the latter: "Now is
curve. Needle-nose climbs not only are hard to sustain but
the time to stand aside and say, 'Prove it to me." By
often come a cropper-in 1973, for example, stocks fell,
waiting, you can better assess the economic outlook.
briefly spiked higher and soon swooned again.
"The market has not yet discounted the possibility
More disturbing is the fragility of two assumptions be-
that any recovery could prove to be subnormal," notes
hind the surge: that the end of the Persian Gulf war will
economist Henry Kaufman, the asset allocator for the
restore consumer confidence and that the economy is
new National Global Allocation Fund.
poised to snap back from the
USN&WR
For investors who insist on pur-
downturn. Even if fighting ends
chasing stocks now, buying in in-
soon, consumers probably won't
Snappy rebound
crements over the next few
The Dow has climbed back nearly to last
resume their free-spending ways.
summer's high, and it's no fluke: Trading
months is a good compromise.
And little hard evidence supports a
volume has remained strong.
Given the highly uncertain pros-
view that the economy is close to
pects for the economy, Kaufman
bottoming out. Retail, auto and
3000
suggests sticking to stocks of fi-
home sales continue to slump. And
Dow Jones industrial average
2900
nancially strong companies that
daily announcements of new large
2800
are likely to report improved
Jan. 16
layoffs, added to the already large
2700
earnings in the second half of
rolls of unemployed, have yet to
1991, such as Philip Morris and
2600
ripple through the economy.
American Express.
2500
Meanwhile, the Fed's attempt to
There are risks in all of these
restart the economy through lower
2400
approaches. But the biggest risk is
interest rates has had no impact.
2300
acting too hastily by jumping on a
J
A
S
0
N
D
J
F
Nevertheless, the decline in in-
1990
1991
recklessly speeding bandwagon.
Note: Figures represent Friday closes except latest,
terest rates has helped fuel the
which is Feb. 14.
rally, as have large amounts of
BY JACK EGAN
68
PHOTO BY CLIFF McBRIDE COURTESY OF THE TAMPA TRIBUNE
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
THE GULF WAR
postpone scheduled court proceedings,
terminate leases early, postpone month-
When breadwinners
ly payments on installment loans under
certain circumstances and be protected
against foreclosure if they fail to make
mortgage payments. Detailed informa-
go off to fight
tion on the law is available from state
and local bar associations, who also can
provide free or low-cost legál help to
military families who are battling credi-
Congress is mulling over a stack of bills to
tors. New provisions might include:
Families whose monthly rent is $1,200
ease the financial burden on military families
or less would be protected against evic-
tion or harassment. The current cap, es-
tablished after World War II, is $150 a
M
any reservists accustomed to ci-
ance for families who choose not to join
month. The government will not pay
vilian salaries are sending
the military health plan.
the rent for families in arrears, but it
home considerably leaner mili-
A proposal now on the table to triple
will see to it that they are not evicted.
tary pay from the Middle East these days.
military health-insurance deductibles,
Soldiers paying off student loans could
Pile on new costs, like suddenly heavier
currently at $50 per person and $100 per
suspend payments until after the war;
child-care expenses, and many military
family each year, would be postponed
reservists who left classes in midsemester
families can no longer keep the house-
until the war ends.
would be refunded their tuition.
hold balance sheet in balance. Chief
Some states have been more
PETER MORGAN AP
Warrant Officer Harry Lee of Ventura,
zealous than the federal gov-
Calif., for example, earned $3,800 a
ernment in coming to reserv-
month as a federal public-affairs officer
ists' defense. Pennsylvania, for
before he answered the call. Now he
example, recently passed a law
earns $3,400, and his wife, Dorothy, is
requiring employers to cover
working longer hours at a second job.
all health-insurance costs for
Even career soldiers, whose basic pay
reservists and National Guard
remains steady in war and peace, are
members for 30 days after they
being hit by added expenses, including
are called to duty. This elimi-
phone bills that often top $500 a month.
nates gaps in medical coverage
The pinch has been duly noted in
while reservists are waiting for
Washington. Enlisted men and women
military health plans to kick in.
needn't pay federal income tax on wages
The governor's office in each
earned since January 17, the day after the
state can tell questioners
war started; officers are exempt for the
where to get information on
first $500 of each month's salary. And all
state-specific laws.
service people in the gulf can divert up to
Because the military typically
$10,000 from their pay to special military
alerts soldiers to new laws and
savings plans that pay 10 percent interest,
provisions through announce-
about four points higher than most mon-
ments in their pay envelopes,
ey-market accounts. That is just the be-
many families may have trouble
ginning of a wave of relief legislation.
keeping abreast of changes.
More than 50 bills are pending in Con-
Several service organizations is-
gress that could shift even more money
sue bulletins and newsletters
and benefits directly to soldiers and their
that track new laws. Member-
families. Some could be passed as early as
ship costs about $20 annually
March, others will trickle along. Con-
Long goodbye. Besides the personal anguish, many
per group. They include: Re-
gress watchers say the following propos-
military families must face financial problems.
serve Officers Association, One
als are the most likely to succeed.
Constitution Avenue, N.E.,
The government would pay a portion
Washington, DC 20002, (202) 479-2200;
Compensation
of child-care costs.
Non-Commissioned Officers Associa-
Soldiers in combat zones would re-
tion, 225 N. Washington Street, Alexan-
ceive an increase in "imminent danger"
Prewar debts
dria, VA 22314, (703) 549-0311, and the
pay from $110 to $150 a month. Saudi
The Soldiers and Sailors Civil Relief
National Military Family Association,
Arabia is a combat zone; Germany,
Act of 1940 already affords some pro-
6000 Stevenson Avenue, Suite 304, Alex-
where many troops are serving, is not.
tection against financial obligations left
andria, VA 22304-3526, (703) 823-6632.
The payment if a military person dies
behind by those sent to the Persian
Sometimes help comes without wait-
in the gulf would double to $6,000.
Gulf. For example, military personnel
ing and red tape. When Dorothy Lee's
Life-insurance benefits would double
who can prove financial hardship relat-
bankers heard her husband had been
to $100,000.
ed to the war may be eligible for a re-
sent to the Persian Gulf, they wrapped
duced interest rate of 6 percent annual-
her car loan in a yellow ribbon-and
Medical and child-care benefits
ly on all pre-combat outstanding loans,
eliminated her interest payments.
The federal government would pay all
including credit-card balances and
or part of the expense of private insur-
mortgages. The law also allows them to
BY FRANCESCA LUNZER KRITZ
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
69
TAX TIPS
Laid off and taxed to boot
The IRS has some nasty surprises in store for unsuspecting job hunters
J
ob hunting in a recession is stress-
new employer. In some cases, part of a
$100,000 in benefits vested in her 401(k)
ful enough without adding a tax
payout may be free of tax or penalty
plan. If she leaves her job, her employer
headache-yet that is what laid-
because you contributed your own mon-
will pay her the remaining $60,000 and
off employees often face. You might
ey to a plan but got no tax deductions.
cancel the debt. She rolls the $60,000
figure, for example, that a check from a
Before 401(k) plans became popular,
over into an IRA or into another plan.
profit-sharing plan would be the per-
starting in the early 1980s, many people
But as far as the IRS is concerned, she
fect salve for a pink slip. But it might
made such after-tax contributions. This
has withdrawn the outstanding $40,000
instead mean a huge tax bill at a time
part of a payout cannot be rolled over.
from her retirement account. Unless
when you can least afford it. Even peo-
You can be sure of meeting the 60-
she comes up with it within 60 days, she
ple who voluntarily quit their jobs to
day deadline by setting up a temporary
will owe a possible penalty -
take better ones can run into tax
on it. One solution: Borrowing
demons. Here are areas to watch
the shortfall from a bank through
for and moves to help you side-
a home-equity loan or short-term
step a tax ordeal.
advance. Once you have redepos-
Outplacement assistance. Em-
ited the whole bundle in a new
ployers often give laid-off workers
employer's retirement plan, the
counseling and other help in find-
bank loan can be repaid with a
ing new jobs. Leave it to the IRS
loan against the retirement funds.
to see that as a chance to collect
Job-hunting bills. Whether you
tax: A 1989 IRS ruling held the
are laid off or just looking for a
value of outplacement aid as tax-
change, outlays for résumés, travel
able income. Now the government
and other job-hunting expenses
is reconsidering. A new ruling lat-
are deductible, SO long as you stay
er this year is expected to general-
in the same line of work. Making a
ly make employment assistance
switch from law to landscaping
taxable only if it replaces other in-
won't qualify. You can deduct 27.5
come-for instance, if part of a
cents a mile for driving to inter-
severance payment is traded for
views or add up the actual costs,
job counseling. For now, it is up to
including depreciation on your car.
employers to decide whether to
Provided that a job search is the
count the value of outplacement
main reason for an out-of-town
help in a worker's taxable pay.
trip, you can deduct transportation
A taxpayer who must include
expenses, even if you do some
the value of job counseling in total
sightseeing or stop in to visit a rela-
income does have one recourse:
tive. Lodging and meals on the job-
to deduct it at the same time, as a
hunting portion of the trip are de-
job-hunting expense. That's per-
ductible. But write-offs for these
mitted as long as the help is
miscellaneous deductions are lim-
geared to finding a new job in your pres-
IRA to hold your payout until you find
ited by your adjusted gross income.
ent career. But the deduction is limited.
a new job. Then you can transfer the
Moving. When a new job takes you to
Job-hunting expenses fall under miscel-
money into the new employer's plan,
another city, it pays to keep detailed rec-
laneous itemized deductions, and only
assuming the new plan allows such de-
ords of deductible expenses such as
the portion of total miscellaneous ex-
posits. IRS rules require that the "con-
moving bills and house-hunting trips. If
penses that exceeds 2 percent of adjust-
duit" IRA hold only the deposit from
a new employer pays the bills, you must
ed gross income is deductible.
the first firm's payout. One strong rea-
report such reimbursements as taxable
Retirement accounts. When you leave
son for moving funds from one employ-
income. But all or most of this can be
a job, a big check representing your bal-
er plan to another is that balances in
offset by claiming deductions for the ex-
ance in a firm's retirement plan can seem
company-sponsored plans often get
penses. There's no limit on the deduc-
a godsend - at first. The payment is gen-
more favorable tax treatment at retire-
tion for hiring a mover or for travel to
erally taxable, and people under 55 face
ment than do amounts held in IRAs.
your new home; for other items, you
an extra 10 percent tax penalty for early
Loans. The right to borrow from a
cannot claim more than $3,000. People
withdrawal. Escaping a surprise tax isn't
company retirement plan, using your
who use the standard deduction instead
difficult, however. Within 60 days, you
account balance as collateral, is a popu-
of itemizing get no job-move break from
need to roll over taxable cash into anoth-
lar feature of many programs. But bor-
the IRS. But why expect the government
er retirement plan, like an individual re-
rowers who turn into ex-employees can
to make things easy for you?
tirement account at a bank or mutual
face a financial squeeze. Take someone
fund or a 401(k) plan offered by your
who has borrowed $40,000 against the
BY LEONARD WIENER
70
ILLUSTRATION BY MARC ROSENTHAL FOR USN&WR
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
NEWS YOU CAN USE
ADVICE FOR TRAVELERS
CAR BARGAINS
ORAL TYPHOID VACCINE
VITAL STATISTICS
CONTENDING WITH TIGHTER SECURITY. The advent of antiterrorism measures has complicat-
ed travel plans, but some of the inconvenience can be finessed or skirted. Hotel guests, for ex-
RICHARD -USN&WR
ample, might rethink their arrival time. At Sheraton hotels, patrons who come hours before
check-in can no longer leave luggage with a bellhop, though guests who check out early still can
stow their belongings. Like airports, hotels are quick to impound unattended bags and may de-
stroy them if no owner can be located promptly. Prominent identification on suitcases, handbags
FOR
and parcels will help security staff track you down if your bag is accidentally left in the lobby.
SALE
Air travelers will save time by keeping calculators, electric razors and other electronic gadgets in car-
ry-on luggage. That way, they can easily be fished out if a security officer asks you to demonstrate
them or dump out the batteries. If the items are in a suitcase you intend to check, you can declare
them to the ticket agent, who will arrange for any inspection deemed necessary. An X-ray machine
YOUR VERY OWN
might otherwise spot the objects later, and you might be delayed by a request to unpack the bag.
HOUSE
Various privileges of air travel have vanished. Only ticketed passengers, for example, can now en-
The percentage of U.S.
households that own rather
ter the boarding area. You will need to ask permission from the airline- preferably when you
than rent slipped to 64
make the reservation - to escort onto the plane a child or disabled relative flying solo. Some car-
percent in 1989, down
riers may issue a pass; others may opt to assign a staffer to assist instead. Train passengers with
from a 66 percent peak in
a long layover should travel light. Many Amtrak stations have eliminated their storage lockers and
1980. Here's the range:
check-in rooms, and you can no longer send suitcases ahead on an earlier train.
Highest
Ownership rate
West Virginia
75%
Maine
74%
PUMPED-UP CAR REBATES. With sales plummeting nearly 30 percent last month compared
Michigan
73%
with January 1990, car makers' plans to halt customer rebates have reversed course. Chrysler
Pennsylvania
73%
has doubled its rebates- to $1,000 until March 31 on its 1991 Chrysler Imperials, Plymouth
Mississippi
72%
Acclaims, Dodge Spirits and New Yorker Fifth Avenues. Rebates on remaining 1989 and 1990
Lowest
Chrysler minivans jumped from $1,000 to $1,500, and Chrysler is offering a free airbag or a
District of Columbia 39%
$500 cash rebate on 1991 minivans. But minivan buyers should note the February Consumer
New York
52%
Reports, which concluded that the electronically controlled automatic transmission on the mini-
California
54%
vans is "a lemon." Chrysler says the transmission, also used in its other vehicles, was rede-
Nevada
54%
signed for 1991 to fix the glitch. The car maker is offering to diagnose troublesome transmis-
Hawaii
55%
sions, even waiving the $100 deductible if warranty work is required.
USN&WR-Basic data: U.S. Dept.
of Commerce
Other car companies are rolling out rebates. Analysts predict that Ford will announce new mon-
ey-back deals to replace those that expire February 28. General Motors is offering rebates
through April 7 from $300 to $1,500 on selected Chevrolets, $250 to $2,000 on some Buicks,
$400 to $1,000 on some Pontiacs, $500 to $1,250 on some Oldsmobiles and $1,200 to
$1,500 on certain Cadillacs. Honda and Toyota offer rebates only to dealers. Some pass the
savings on, but it may take hard bargaining; in the current slump, dealers may be more inclined
to use the money to pay their bills.
BAD NEWS FOR TYPHOID MARY. A recently introduced oral vaccine for typhoid, which plagues
WAKE UP, Boss
parts of Africa, Asia and South America, eliminates the nausea, fever and painful swelling that
Of 140 executives
often follow the usual shot. But doctors have been slow to switch. To call attention to the vac-
surveyed, 18 percent doze
cine, which was approved by the Food and Drug Administration a year ago, the February 13 issue
in dull meetings. The main
of the Journal of the American Medical Association published an article noting the vaccine's min-
tactics used to stay awake:
imal side effects and its 51 to 77 percent effectiveness rate- the same as that of the injection.
Write notes
61%
The vaccine, Ty21a, distributed by Berna Products of Coral Gables, Fla., comes as capsules that
Daydream
47%
are taken every other day for seven days before the trip. The Centers for Disease Control Interna-
Doodle
41%
tional Travelers Hotline at (404) 332-4559 has information on typhoid-plagued locales. Because
Read
19%
neither vaccine is fully effective, travelers at risk should avoid milk products, water, and fresh
Talk to a neighbor 11%
fruits and vegetables.
USN&WR-Basic data: Strategic
Communications
Compiled by Margaret Mannix
BY MARC SILVER, SUSAN LINDAUER AND FRANCESCA LUNZER KRITZ
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
71
EDITORIAL
BY MORTIMER B. ZUCKERMAN
EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
THE PUBLIC OUTSMARTS TV
W
eren't you dazzled by the front-row seat in the
Baghdad, given that the limitations imposed on their
gulf war provided by TV? Symbolically, the
reporter by Iraq make the material he submits only a
very outbreak of the war was first revealed
partial picture. CNN is in danger of serving as an unedit-
not by an official announcement but rather by live TV
ed platform for Iraqi propaganda, especially in the Arab
from Baghdad. The spectacular visual fireworks of at-
world. It is open to criticism here, as the former execu-
tacking missiles and planes subjected to antiaircraft fire
tive editor of The New York Times has pointed out.
drew the whole nation into war. Since then, the detail
Yet the fears of many that TV and the media would
and speed with which the news is transmitted, the sheer
overwhelm American public opinion have proved
technical virtuosity of the networks, as they skipped
groundless. Americans are not dummies and can make
from Baghdad to Washington and from the White
judgments fully independent of the media. Remember
House to Saudi Arabia, have mesmerized the nation.
how much press coverage, especially on TV, turned
Through TV, we have learned strange new concepts
hostile to the president's policies in the gulf in the two
like precision bombing, destruction of
months before the war? Many negative
command centers and suppression of
pieces viewed America as divided, un-
air defenses. TV has let us connect with
ready for battle, ready to collapse at
the people suffering from Saddam
'Americans have
the sight of body bags, some even sug-
Hussein's terror - not only innocent ci-
reacted as the
gesting that the volunteer Army's
vilians in Tel Aviv rushing to put on gas
fighting spirit was suspect because sol-
masks against incoming Scud missiles,
media have long
diers signed up for educational bene-
but his own civilians whom he is in-
asserted by
fits and not for war.
creasingly placing in harm's way.
Most Americans didn't buy it. Fully
Yet if television has triumphed for
deciding on their
75 percent remained rock solid behind
its images, it is also resented and even
own whom to trust,
the president and his policies. Any ero-
distrusted for its ideology and self-ab-
what to believe'
sion from this level came not from op-
sorption. The vast majority of Ameri-
position to him but from those who felt
cans disapproved of the media pres-
he wasn't being tough enough. More
sure on the military in the early days
than 80 percent supported the air at-
for more information to feed 24-hour
tack, and the timing of the attack. Nor
news coverage that seemed to de-
was the American public naive about
mand a new story every hour. Americans felt, correct-
the time the war would take and the casualties that might
ly, that they were receiving more information than in
ensue. Americans, it turned out, understood all too well
any other military engagement in our history and were
the menace posed by Saddam Hussein.
comfortable with the notion that military briefings had
The president's demeanor proved much more effec-
to be sketchy to avoid helping the enemy. They under-
tive than media pundits (including this one) appreciated.
stood that in an air war, direct physical access by the
His stable manner, his calm sincerity, helped to persuade
media network TV in the cockpit of a single-seat
the country to support his diplomatic goals. Americans
Stealth fighter? - is virtually impossible so information
see the gulf policy being carried out intelligently and
is difficult to acquire and more difficult to confirm.
resolutely, with superb planning and execution, and with
More recently, CNN's Peter Arnett has been attacked
disciplined concern for casualties. Paradoxically, the
for reporting from Baghdad by politicians like Sen. Alan
military, through TV, developed a real alliance with the
Simpson. This is especially cynical given the way Simp-
public, whose confidence in the war has soared.
son and four other senators cozied up to Saddam Hus-
Americans have reacted as the media have long as-
sein last year. Incredibly, Simpson told him that his
serted - by deciding on their own whom to trust and
problems were not with America, but with its "haughty
what to believe. The media deserve kudos for extraor-
and pampered press." CNN is right to report from Bagh-
dinary coverage of the gulf war, but it is the American
dad, but there is more to it. Its editors have a responsibil-
public, demonstrating sophistication and indepen-
ity, too. They do not have to air every minute from
dence, that is the real star.
72
U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 1991
© Visa U.S.A. Inc. 1990
<<
CE
A
OF
e
D
PERFORMA
PERFORMANCE
Bicycle Shop
Chapel Hill, North Carolina.
" and they don't take American Express."
Performance Bicycle Shop, Chapel Hill. Sleek lines, sturdy con-
structions-cycling's cutting edge. Where cycling goes into high
gear. It's just one of the more than four million places around the
world that accept Visa, but not American Express.
VISA
It's Everywhere You Want To Be.
PREVIA
Tell that to your kid. Chances are,
in the Toyota Previa, it's an assigned
seat he won't mind taking.
Nor would his brothers and sisters, or Mom and
Dad. Because the Previa seats a family of seven* com-
fortably with plenty of breathing room in any seat.
While walk-through center aisles make it easy for the
entire clan to hop in and out.
The Previa also has a load of acreage for skis, bicy-
As you can see, the Previa was built with one objec-
cles, or even a dog house. Just fold up the two rear seats
tive in mind. Your family's comfort.
and presto-instant wall-to-wall space.
So the next time your kids tell you they need some
Up front, the contoured instrument panel comple-
space, give it to 'em.
ments the unique interior design of the Previa. Its
sculpted center console provides easy access to the
"I love what you do for me."
optional CD player-a nine-speaker system that assures
superlative sound quality, wherever you sit.
TOYOTA
YOU ARE IN ROW 3, SEAT C.
Call 1-800-GO-TOYOTA for a brochure and location of your nearest dealer.
. Seven passenger seating includes third row split folding seats, standard on
Previa LE models; optional on other Previa models. Shown with optional Cap-
tains Chairs, available on Previa LE models only. Get More From Life
Buckle
Up! ©1990 Toyota Motor Sales, U.S.A., Inc.