Ask the Scholar

{
    "localId": "1554415",
    "label": "First Debate: Suggestions from Outside the White House",
    "core": "doc",
    "dtoType": "document",
    "citationUrl": "https://catalog.archives.gov/id/1554415"
}

{
    "id": "1554415",
    "sourceUrl": "https://catalog.archives.gov/id/1554415",
    "contentType": "document",
    "title": "First Debate: Suggestions from Outside the White House",
    "citationUrl": "https://catalog.archives.gov/id/1554415",
    "collections": [
        "White House Special Files Unit Files",
        "Ford - Carter Debates Files"
    ],
    "subjects": [
        "Campaign debates",
        "Presidential campaign, 1976"
    ],
    "iiifBase": "https://s3.amazonaws.com/NARAprodstorage/opastorage/live/15/5544/1554415/content/library/document/0010/1554415.pdf",
    "thumbnailUrl": "https://s3.amazonaws.com/NARAprodstorage/opastorage/live/15/5544/1554415/content/library/document/0010/1554415.pdf",
    "largeImageUrl": "https://s3.amazonaws.com/NARAprodstorage/opastorage/live/15/5544/1554415/content/library/document/0010/1554415.pdf",
    "imageCount": 1,
    "hasImages": true,
    "source": "import",
    "hasTranscription": false
}

{
    "url": "https://catalog.archives.gov/id/1554415",
    "naId": 1554415,
    "coverageEndDate": {
        "logicalDate": "1976-09-30",
        "month": 9,
        "year": 1976
    },
    "coverageStartDate": {
        "logicalDate": "1976-08-01",
        "month": 8,
        "year": 1976
    },
    "levelOfDescription": "fileUnit",
    "recordType": "description",
    "ocrSource": "nara-archive"
}

{
    "seq": 1,
    "pageIndex": 0,
    "type": "document",
    "url": "https://s3.amazonaws.com/NARAprodstorage/opastorage/live/15/5544/1554415/content/library/document/0010/1554415.pdf",
    "mediaId": "cad25ce64b015bd8",
    "ocrText": "The original documents are located in Box 1, folder \"First Debate: Suggestions from\nOutside the White House\" of the White House Special Files Unit Files at the Gerald R.\nFord Presidential Library.\nCopyright Notice\nThe copyright law of the United States (Title 17, United States Code) governs the making of\nphotocopies or other reproductions of copyrighted material. Gerald Ford donated to the United\nStates of America his copyrights in all of his unpublished writings in National Archives collections.\nWorks prepared by U.S. Government employees as part of their official duties are in the public\ndomain. The copyrights to materials written by other individuals or organizations are presumed to\nremain with them. If you think any of the information displayed in the PDF is subject to a valid\ncopyright claim, please contact the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library.\nDigitized from Box 1 of the White House Special Files Unit Files at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library\nTHE PRESIDENT HAS SERN\nPOSTAL RATE COMMISSION\nMemorandum\nSeptember 15, 1976\nTO:\nTHE PRESIDENT\nFROM:\nPAUL A. MILTICH\nPam\nSUBJECT: UPCOMING DEBATE ON SEPT. 23.\nMr. President, I think you did very well in answering the\nquestions put to you on the Today Show regarding the economy,\nbut I would suggest you go on the attack when the issue of un-\nemployment arises in the Sept. 23 debate, as I am sure it will.\nYou should ask Carter which problem he gives higher priority\nto--unemployment or inflation. Whatever his answer, he will have\na problem explaining why--and how he would deal with both problems.\nFor your part, you should take the affirmative by stating that\nyou are dealing with both problems at the same and making steady\nprogress. If Carter talks of stimulating the economy to bring\ndown unemployment, you should raise the possibility that any\nactions taken by those of the Carter school of thought would\ntrigger a big new wave of inflation. While it might help some\nof the seven to eight million unemployed, what would artificial\nstimulation of the economy do through price inflation to the in-\ncomes of the 88 million who presently have jobs? It should be\nstressed that Carter & Company would worsen inflation while your\nadministration would follow a path of steady economic growth in\nwhich unemployment would be lowered in ways other than pumping\nup total spending. You should point out that you will bring\nabout lower unemployment without a wage and price explosion--\nboth of which Carter policies would risk.\nI have run across what I consider to be a most impressive\nstatistic: For the year ended July 1976, the Consumer Price\nIndex rose only 5.4 percent--the smallest 12-month increase\nsince the days of wage and price controls in 1972 and early\n1973. What is Carter going to do to improve on the steady\nprogress you are making in fighting inflation? Go back to\nwage and price controls? Labor is strongly opposed to controls\non wages. So is Carter advocating price controls without wage\ncontrols? What would that do to the economy and what would be\nthe consequences when price controls were finally removed?\nCarter is talking out of both sides of his mouth. He talks\nabout stimulating the economy and at the same time talks about\nbalancing the budget. He cannot pump up the economy by pumping\nup government spending and at the same time balance the budget.\nHe just is not levelling with the American people.\n#####\nPOSTAL RATE COMMISSION\nWashington, D.C. 20268\nPaul A. Miltich\nCOMMISSIONER\nSeptember 15, 1976\nMiss Mildred Leonard\nPersonal Assistant\nto the President\nThe White House\nWashington, D.C. 20500\nDear Mildred:\nHere is the memo I spoke with you about on the\nphone. I hope it is helpful to the President.\nPlease give him my regards.\nSincerely,\nPaul\nPaul A. Miltich\nEnclosure\nMr. President:\nTRESILENT\nTAS\nSEAL\nGREATO FORD JOHANT\nI would like to offer you a few thoughts on the coming campaign.\n1. Ignore the pleaseof members of Congress who want you to travel all\nover the country campaigning for them.\n2. Concentrate on the TV debates -- and primarily the first debate.\nAs one who has prepared four candidates for TV debates, I would make\nthe following suggestions:\na) Candidate and staff should determine amount of preparation time\nneeded for first debate, and then double it.\nb) Practice runs should be made against at least two different people\nimitating the opponent but using different tactics.\nc) Candidate must appear as if he hasn't spent all his time preparing\nfor the first debate -- but, in fact, he should have spent most of his time\nin preparation.\nd) A task force should be working right now on the first debate, and must\nhave complete access to the candidate over the next weeks.\ne) Physical image of the candidate is very important. Candidate should\nbe well rested, properly made up, dressed and positioned.\nf) First debate should be rehearsed many times.\ng) One theme or major point should be stressed throughout debate, regardless\nof debate topic. This should be the key point, theme, of campaign.\nh) Keep in mind mental level of TV audience and rehearse to such an audience.\nCandidate must speak to TV audience, not to news media.\ni) Candidate should not be too structured -- completely prepared but not\nup-tight or inflexible. He who is best prepared is most relaxed.\nj) Candidate's answers should be short and responsive. Each answer should\nbe followed by an attack or a positive statement.\nk) Staff work should be completed as far in advance of first debate as possible\nin order to avoid any sense of urgency or pressure on the candidate.\n1) If the candidate feels comfortable it is a good technique for him\nto look at his opponent at all times when he isn't looking into the\ncamera eye.\nJoel Pritchard\nYou must be brutal in the handling of the President's time\nin the coming weeks.\nThis paper was not prepared by anyone associated with government\nnor was it prepared in response to a request. Rather it was\nsubmitted on a voluntary basis.\nJIMMY CARTER'S POTENTIALLY SERIOUS\nLIABILITIES AND VULNERABILITIES\nTHE PRESIDENT HAS SEEN\nThe polls give Jimmy Carter almost a 20-point lead over\neither Republican candidate. In tracing the Gallup poll\ndata over the past three decades, we find that no presidential\ncandidate has ever bounced back from such a big mid-summer\ndeficit. Nevertheless, Carter's lead is certain to narrow\nas the election approaches. His strategists recognize this\nprobability, and they are trying to predict the extent of\nthe erosion. For they see potentially serious flaws and\nweaknesses in Carter as a man and a candidate. Conceivably,\nthese could defeat him if his opponent can exploit them - a\nbig question mark.\nIt should be noted that Carter has faced only about\n20 percent of the total U.S. electorate under circumstances\nthat may not provide an accurate test of national sentiment.\nHe represents change and uncertainty; Ford represents\nstability and predictability. While the people say they\nwant \"change,\" they may not want some of the specific\nchanges Carter has in mind. Carter has capitalized thus\nfar on vagueness, ambiguity and even mystery. But the\n- 2 -\nGERALD\nLIBRARY\ncoming campaign will cast the Carter enigma in another light:\nrisk and danger.\nPollster Louis Harris is among those who believe Carter\nis \"very vulnerable.\" He recently told newsmen: \"Jimmy Carter\nhas not proven himself. He's very vulnerable. We find (in\nour polls) that he's not an inspirational figure.\" Almost\ntwo-thirds of those polled, said Harris, \"are worried about\na politician who says he'll never lie.\"\nIn our discussions with political, military and academic\nobservers during the past few weeks, they have identified\nseveral Carter vulnerabilities. Most of them note an obvious\nproblem: Carter's boundless self-confidence may easily\nbecome offensive arrogance. As in the case of \"ethnic purity,\"\nhe may make another highly exploitable misstatement. Many\nobservers attach considerable importance to the not yet fully\ndemonstrated powers of an incumbent President in a time of\neconomic recovery.\nDespite his pollstanding, Carter has the same problem\nthat confronts any outsider: the President dominates the news.\nA successful demonstration of Presidental leadership in an\ninternational crisis situation would rally the nation behind\nFord and revive the old argument: \"don't change horses in\nmid-stream.\" Carter has no control over events overseas,\nwhich could work greatly to Ford's advantage. The President\n- 3 -\nand his aides are perceived by the voters as experienced\nin foreign affairs, while Carter is seen as inexperienced\nand untested.\nCarter's very limited appeal to Catholic voters -\nparticularly urban, working-class Catholics in northern\nstates - is a potentially major problem for him.\nThere are an estimated 30 million registered Catholic\nvoters, and nearly 7 out of every 10 of them are concentrated\nin a dozen large states containing 271 electoral votes -\none more vote than needed to elect a President. Traditionally,\nCatholics have voted Democratic by about a 4:1 ratio. They\ngave John F. Kennedy 78 percent of their vote, and Lyndon\nJohnson 76 percent. But Hubert Humphrey got only 59 percent\nand George McGovern a surprising 48 percent - the first time\nin at least 40 years that a Democratic candidate failed to\nreceive a majority of the Catholic vote.\nCarter is an unlikely figure to reverse this downtrend.\nEven so, in passing over Senator Muskie for his running-mate\nand picking the very liberal, pro-abortion Senator Mondale,\nCarter indicated that he felt that his \"Catholic problem\" is\nmanageable without a Catholic on the ticket. His influential\npollster, Patrick Caddell (himself a Catholic), seems less\nconfident, declaring: \"Jimmy is perceived as very much of a\nFORD\nProtestant candidate. Carter has run weakly in heavily\nCatholic states, e.g. New Jersey, Massachusetts, New York\nand Maryland.\"\nFord, in contrast, scores well in polls of Catholic\nvoters, for his form of Protestant religion and cultural\nheritage is more congenial to Catholics, who consider\nreligion a private matter.\nAnother potential Carter weakness is his tendency to\nexploit and discard prestigious advisers after they have\nserved their purposes in his goal-oriented political strategy.\nCarter is not committed to his present foreign policy\nadvisers. Even the highly publicized Professor Brezinski\nfeels neglected. Until this week, he privately complained,\nhe had not seen Carter in almost two months.\nAnother widely advertised, big-name association, Admiral\nHyman Rickover, is clearly marked for oblivion. Rickover's\ndebate with the Pentagon over shipbuilder claims is viewed\nas insubordination by Carter, according to Navy sources.\nCarter once drew inspiration from Rickover. As President,\nhowever, Carter probably would ask the over-age Rickover for\nhis resignation. This consistently one-sided pattern in\nCarter's relationships will discourage prominent new recruits\nto his campaign because of the uncertainty of future rewards.\n15 -\nIn a campaign against President Ford, Carter could be\nweakened by tactics that force him to take clearer stands on\nissues. Carter's appeal in the primaries was based on a\ntheme: trust me to restore decency in Washington. He\nskillfully avoided specific commitments.\nBut Carter is now becoming caught in self-contradictions.\nFor example, his recent effort to sound pro-business before a\ngroup of corporate executives in New York failed to impress\nthem. It also annoyed the distrustful unions, especially\nwhen Carter came out for keeping the foreign tax credit strongly\nfavored by multinational corporations. His tone in addressing\nthe businessmen flatly contradicted the populist \"soak the\nrich\" tone of his acceptance speech.\nCarter will be forced to give his views more clearly on\nimportant measures scheduled for Congressional debate before\nthe fall recess - e.g. tax reform, federalization of the\nunemployment insurance system, natural gas decontrol and a\nprotectionist \"buy American\" proposal. Some Carter advisers\nalready are pitted against important Southern supporters on\nthe issue of \"buy American.'\n- /6 -\nStill another difficulty Carter faces is the cumulative\neffect of the concessions he has made to win the support of\nthe liberal wing of the party - in the Democratic platform,\nin his policy statements, and in his selection of a running-\nmate. Senator Mondale, according to a survey by the ultra\nliberal Americans for Democratic Action, had a \"liberal\nquotient\" of 94 percent on his voting record in 1975. Carter\nhas succeeded chiefly by projecting the image of a centrist -\na fiscal and social conservative who will pursue activist\neconomic policies. His identification with liberal positions\ntarnishes this image.\nCarter's family, it should be noted, is probably more\nliberal than he is. His son Chip is a strong advocate of\nsexual equality even to the point of participating in events\nsponsored by homosexuals. His son Jeff is an outspoken\nadmirer of Senator Frank Church and admits trying drugs.\nFolk singer Bob Dylan and Robert Kennedy are family heroes.\nThe family urged his choice of Mondale. His wife and their\nclose-knit family exert far more influence on the man than\nhis advisers. Carter recently went so far as to call Vietnam\na \"racist\" war, which is close to McGovern's 1972 rhetoric.\n7\nRepublicans who have bothered to add up the additional\ncosts of the federal programs that Carter has endorsed say\nthese total more than $75 billion a year - mostly in the form\nof new transfer payments. Pollster Harris says that the\nDemocratic Platform, if fully implemented, would within a\nfew years nearly double the federal budget - to a total of\nabout $750 billion annually. The implications are plain:\nhigh inflation, higher taxes high interest rates\na\nreturn\nto wage and price controls. Republicans will call public\nattention to these costs and consequences. Carter's turn to\nthe left puts him in fact - if not yet in appearance -\nsquarely in the camp of those who advocate a larger federal\nbureaucracy and more centralized controls, precisely the\nopposite of the\"anti-Washington\" stance he took during the\nprimaries.\nCarter's public image is the gleaming smile. But his\neyes and the rest of his face are unsmiling. Still hidden in\nthe shadows is Carter's complex character and personality,\nhis sense of destiny, his obsessive drive and his iron\ndiscipline. Herein may lie his greatest vulnerability. The\n8 -\nLIBRER\npublic may be more afriad of the man's strengths, and\nthe threats they pose to the democratic system, than concerned\nabout his weaknesses. Over the centuries, Americans have\ndisplayed a healthy fear of \"great\" men. They seek leadership\nand admire excellence but are often inclined to vote for the\nsafe predictability of mediocrity.\n* * *\nLAW OFFICES\nHERRICK, LANGDON, BELIN, HARRIS, LANGDON & HELMICK\n2000 FINANCIAL CENTER\nSEVENTH AND WALNUT\nDES MOINES, IOWA 50309\nALLAN A. HERRICK\nTELEPHONE\nHERSCHEL G. LANGDON\n(515) 244-1116\nDAVID W. BELIN\nCHARLES E. HARRIS\nCOUNSEL\nRICHARD G. LANGDON\nDWIGHT BROOKE\nROBERT H. HELMICK\nPHILIP C. LOVRIEN\nAugust 9, 1976\nLAWRENCE E. POPE\nJOEL D. NOVAK\nJEFFREY E. LAMSON\nEDGAR H. BITTLE\nFREDERICK C. BLACKLEDGE\nCURT L.SYTSMA\nDAVID L. CLAYPOOL\nThe President of the United States\nThe White House\nWashington, D. C. 20500\nDear Mr President:\nEnclosed is a copy of my basic strategy paper No. 10 for August\nentitled, \"The Five Keys to Victory in November.\"\nBest regards.\nSincerely,\nand\nDavid W. Belin\nDWB:cs\nEncl.\nC.C. Richard Cheney\nC.C. Robert Hartmann\nC.C. Ron Nessen\nC.C. Philip Buchen\nP.S. I know your time is precious, particularly as you look forward\nto the nomination in Kansas City, but I would urge you to read\nthis entire paper before making your Vice Presidential selection.\nTHE ELECTION OF PRESIDENT FORD\nBASIC STRATEGY PAPER NO. 10 - AUGUST, 1976\nDavid W. Belin\nFORD CIRRARY\nThe Five Keys to Victory in November\nThe hour is late. We are far behind in the polls. But\nvictory can be achieved in November if we recognize five\nessential ingredients: (1) The record of President Ford in\nrestoring trust and confidence in government, the maintenance\nof peace, control of inflation, and ever-increasing prosperity.\nTogether with the emphasis on the President's performance,\nthere must be an expression of the President's goals, plans,\nhopes and aspirations for the Nation in his first four-year term.\n(2) The abysmal performance of the Democratic-controlled 94th\nCongress. (3) The Democratic Party Platform which promises\nmore taxes, more inflation, and more big government. (4) The\ntremendous emotional and psychological opportunities in this\ncampaign, which are elements that Republican candidates con-\nsistently fail to recognize. (5) The selection of the proper\nVice Presidential running mate to integrate with the previous\nfour items and capitalize on overall opportunities.\nLet us discuss each of these items briefly.\nFORD\n1. The record of President Ford. Basically, President\nFord must run on his record. And it is a record that he can be\nproud of. The restoration of trust and confidence in government,\nthe maintenance of peace, the bringing of inflation under control,\nand the development of ever-increasing prosperity. (And I think\nit is important to use the \"ever-increasing\" adjective so that we\ndo not fall in the box of saying that prosperity is already here\nbut many people do not realize it yet.)\nThere is one factor that should be emphasized. I think it\nis fair to say that if there were not peace, then it would be\nunderstandable for the Democrats to attack the foreign policy\nof this country. But how can the Democrats attack foreign policy\nwhen there are no American troops engaged in fighting anywhere\nin the world.\nAt the same time, I think we can assert that if there were\nstill double-digit inflation, if the Gross National Product were\nfalling, then it might be appropriate to attack the President's\ndomestic policies. But the fact remains that the great majority\nof the people in this country are gaining an ever-increasing\nconfidence in the economy.\nThis will be further discussed as a part of the overall\nemotional opportunities.\n-2-\nFORD\n2. In addition, the campaign should capitalize on running\nagainst the record of the 94th Congress the way Truman ran\nagainst the record of the 80th Congress in 1948. There is the\nfact of Congressional inaction in energy. There is Congressional\ninaction in tax reform. There is Congressional inaction in\nwelfare reform. There is Congressional inaction in a host of\nother areas. The attacks on Congress should be in a frame of\nreference of positive programs that the President has put forth\nso this does not appear to be an entirely negative approach.\nAt the same time, the attacks on Congress should be\naccompanied with compassion for the common citizen. I dis-\ncussed this earlier in the December paper and the need for\nthe Republican Party to recognize its lack of perception in this\narea.\nThe attacks on Congress should also be accompanied by\nthe use of what John Rhoades calls one of the best-kept secrets\nof the century: The fact that the Democrats have controlled\n40\n44\nCongress for 36 of the past is years.\n-3-\nFinally, the attacks on Congress should be accompanied with\nan attack on the promises of the Democratic candidate (as opposed\nto the candidate himself, for I think we should avoid personal\nattack). Carter promises lots of reorganizations of government.\nBut the Democrats have been in control of Congress for most of\nthe past 40 years and have failed to reorganize Congress.\nThe public does not hold Congress in high esteem, and we\ncan capitalize on this public perception.\n3. In addition, there should be an attack on the Democratic\nParty Platform. It promises three things: More taxes, more\ninflation and more big government. There has to be constant\nreemphasis of this.\nThis should be accompanied by a financial analysis of what\nthe Democrats promise--between $150 billion and $200 billion\nof added government programs which will mean tremendous increases\nin taxes as well as tremendous increases of inflation and more\nand more bureaucracy in Washington. This is a natural Republican\nissue.\n4. Emotional and voter psychology opportunities. As a\npart of our logical and objective and positive statement of\nissues, there should be a liberal sprinkling (but not over-\n-4-\ndone) of the fact that we are the underdog. The polls show that\nwe are behind. Perhaps we will not win, but we have the story\nto tell to the people, and we are going to tell that story to\nthe people.\nEveryone roots for the underdog. Truman was able to get\nthe people rooting for him because he was an underdog. We should\nbe able to follow the same course.\nWith this as a foundation, we then enter the last few days\nof the campaign and add two basic ingredients of emotion: The\nnatural feeling on the part of a human being not to knife another\nperson in the back, and the natural apprehension of the human\nbeing for the unknown.\nThere is a natural tendency not to want to knife a person\nin the back--particularly when that person has done a decent job.\nI think this psychological element is particularly applicable\nto the entire country in the last few days of the campaign. The\nvoter should understand that the President has been working\ntremendously hard--and has succeeded on the very jobs that were\nthought to be key when he first assumed office. The country\nwanted him to bring peace. He did this. The country wanted\nto bring inflation under control. He did this. The country wanted\nto have increased prosperity. The President did this. The\n-5-\nFORD\ncountry wanted to have a restoration of trust and confidence\nin government. The President did this.\nAfter having accomplished all of these tremendous challenges\nthat faced him when the President assumed office, is it fair to\nknife the President in the back and throw him out of office?\nI think that there are tremendous television opportunities\nthat should be saved for the last few days of the campaign when\nthere are opportunities to sway a tremendous amount of undecided\nvoters.\nThese opportunities also fit into the other aspects of the\ntremendous psychological opportunities that can be capitalized\non in the last week of the campaign--and in particular the very\nnatural psychological fear of the average voter of the unknown.\n\"When you walk into the voting booth and are ready to mark\nan X or pull a lever for one candidate, remember that you know\nwhat you have with President Ford. He is a man who has restored\ntrust in government. He has brought peace to our land. He\nhas brought ever-increasing prosperity to our land. He has\nbrought inflation under control.\n-6-\n\"Before you cast your ballot, think twice and think whether\nor not you want to change from a man that you know--a man who\nhas performed everything that was asked of him--to a man\nyou do not know--a man who gives many promises, who says one\nthing one week and another thing another week, and who has\nengaged in personal attacks on the President, even though he\nfirst said he would not.\n\"When you cast your ballot, do you want to give up what\nyou now have for the promises of an unknown future?\"\nThese are not the precise words that should be used, but\nthis is the basic concept that must be gotten across. And it\nshould be saved for the last week of the campaign because that\nis when it is applicable, just prior to the time the person goes\nto the ballot box. At that time, it will also be too late for\nMr. Carter to reply.\nTo put it another way, a bird in the hand is worth two\nin the bush, and the voter has experienced this time and time\nagain. He will have a natural apprehension of what he cannot\nforesee. And these natural apprehensions, coupled with the\nsense of fairness of not kicking a person in the back, coupled\n-7-\nwith the emotional use of the underdog elements, offer tremendous\npsychological opportunities--opportunities that must be captured\nif we are to win in November.\nWe Republicans have a great ability to present logical\narguments. We have a great ability to present negative argu-\nments. But we have an inability to put an entire campaign\nof logical arguments together with the seasoning of natural\nemotions which are part of the character of the average American\nvoter.\n5. The Vice Presidential candidate. In order to\ncapitalize fully on this overall strategy, it is essential\nthat the running mate who is selected is the best person to\ncapitalize on this overall strategy. The following are the\nprimary criteria which must be considered:\na. The candidate should be someone who is not part of the\nWashington establishment in general and who is not part of Congress\nin particular. Jimmy Carter is running a anti-Washington cam-\npaign, and the Republican ticket must have someone on that ticket\n(assuming Nelson Rockefeller is not selected because of his\nability and experience) who can counter the anti-Washington Carter\ncampaign and the anti-Washington general mood. In particular,\n-8-\nFORD\nthe person should be able to capitalize on the opportunities\nto run against the record of the 94th Congress.\nb. The person should have no connection with the adminis-\ntration of Richard Nixon or Watergate and should have no \"skeletons\"\nin his closet from such things as milk fund money, oil lobbies\nmoney, etc.\nC. The person should be philosophically in the middle of the\nroad to balance the ticket philosophically and to help heal the\nwounds of the Republican Party where so many middle-of-the-road--\nmoderate Republicans are unhappy with the course of the primary\ncampaign which has been dominated by the more conservate elements\nof the Party.\nd. The Vice Presidential candidate must have demonstrated\nexperience in successful state-wide election campaigns. A national\nPresidential campaign is no place for on-the-job training, and\nit would be foolhardy to bring someone into the picture who has\nnot really demonstrated on more than one occasion that he is\ncapable of winning state-wide elections in swing states. Election\nexpertise is something that is very sorely needed at this time.\n-9-\nFORD CIRSIAN\ne. The Vice Presidential candidate should be someone who\nin many ways would be the least controversial and would take\naway the least from the President.\nf. In order to capitalize on the emotional psychology\nwe have discussed, the Vice Presidential candidate should come\nacross as a very nice, decent, genuine, human being--someone whom\nthe voter can identify with, and someone who on television will\nbe sincere when he talks about the fact that it is not fair to\nkick the President in the back after what the President has done\nand when he talks about the fact that when the voter walks into\nthe voting booth and is ready to cast his ballot, he should\nthink twice before. he makes a decision whether or not to keep\nwhat he has or try something new and unknown.\nFrom the viewpoint of this overall strategy, I believe that\nfor many reasons, Governor Ray of Iowa would be far and away\nthe best choice for Vice President. Like many others being\nmentioned, he offers a philosophical balance of being from the\nmiddle of the road. Like many others being mentioned, he has\nno connections with the Nixon-Watergate years in Washington nor\ndoes he have any connections with milk fund money or oil lobby\n-10-\nmoney, etc. Like some others being mentioned, he is not part\nof the Washington establishment. But when you want someone who\nmeets these criteria and also has the demonstrated expertise of\nwinning elections in a swing state--most vividly in 1974 in the\npost-Watergate election where he obtained nearly 60% of the\nvote at a time when five out of six Democratic Congressional\ncandidates were winning and the Democratic senator was being\nelected and in face of the best-financed Democratic gubernatorial\ncampaign in history--and when you add to all of this the fact\nthat in a fourth term, Governor Ray enjoys an 82% approval rating\nfrom the public with only 8% unfavorable (and 10% undecided),\nthen you have a rare combination.\nWho better would there be to ask a voter, is it fair to\nturn your back on a President who has brought peace to our land,\never-increasing prosperity to our land, inflation under control,\nand credibility to government?\nAnd who better would there be to ask a voter, when you cast\nyour ballot, do you want to give up what you now have for the\npromises of a unknown future? The person asking these questions\nmust be a person who has demonstrated his capacity to communicate\n-11-\nwith the average citizen of this country. I know of no better\nevidence than four successive election wins in a swing state\nand 82% favorable support from a cross-section of the American\npublic.\nBut the key is that the selection of the Vice Presidential\ncandidate must be made with particular reference to the kind of\nstrategy that will be needed to win in November. This strategy\nmust have a combination in logical arguments and a combination\nof identification with the natural psychology of the voter.\nWe have the arguments. And we can put together the right\nkind of a campaign to capitalize on these arguments and capitalize\non the underlying psychological advantages that we have.\nDavid W. Belin\n2000 Financial Center\nDes Moines, Iowa 50309\nAugust 6, 1976\n-12-"
}