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[June 1976?]
NYT /CBS New Hampshine NYT 2/25/76
NYT
1. Issues - thosenwhe took conservative positions on
GOP smokers
2/26
the issues (defente pollution /enerzy frade off,
security invertment, help for minorities) went
social spending Coderal/local social
40-60 to Reagan the GOP moderate
2. Times Andysis - 2/25/76
liberal vote went 5-4 for the president.
"Most of the conservative Republicans a NYT/
CBS poll showed of 1235 veters across He state
showed, chose Ronall Roagan, former Govemor
President Ford, with the moderates divided
of Celifornia, and most of the liberals close
(43 conserv Reagan 43 librab Ford meds divided for
Ford). Reagan streng H. outside consensation
was with lower status veters. Reagen Nan better
in small town + Manchester area.
LIONAN
NYT Mass 3/4/76
But the challengers [Reager] discription in
and did not even set the hand-core Republican
showing - he was beaten by about 2-1
base in Massachweetts there, was one additional
bit of gloom for the Californian in the data
from the Times/CBS poll. Mr. Ford nan
powerfully here among older voters, a highly
alsetorate in Flerida
subject element of the Republican
Mass Dems split - foreign minorites policy
jobstee
see Jenv
pollution
big ant buy. power
6090
L
49000
6020
M
147 ...0
588 64680 Lt in = 82" 39129
48.19
a
124 oor
229320 M + 17 = 246 137000
C 241080/417 = =258
NYT less Flavida 3/4/76
Fond news first among tiberah conservation +
Democrat Ren strongly among older
people, Reagan got latin vote
1. Reagn Ford split defent antis -
Ford won of pro (60-40)
2. Maj saw economic upswerg 2-1 Ford
"
down 21 Regan
Illinois NYT/CBS 3/17/76
sales + detente
Ford gets may. of both sides of goin
809. of the issue 4im 10 who saw integrity
as creial chase Ford
75% of 5'm to who saw ccon, improving
Wisconsin 21% GOP=Wallace (Dam primary)
Rep. puriory vaters
Moderate Liberal > 1/4 Ford
Reasan get
2/3 of Dem
Conse Rvative Apg Began
crossbrer to
13112
Got vote
Reagan latter he; the collant lower che, (total 1190 of vot)
food better i young + old
NYT Carter efter Pa Carly/HHH
Goio Jack HHH
5090 Udabl= =
Protestants - Cath / Jens
4020 Carton =
Younger older
split Heavy union
soe.sexv trade no J.S. trade
smaller sant lyer gant.
SNaH foll couly beb 1stweek
Nett poll 2nd week April
May 5/L
NYT 2/13/1615500
Job ste 70 Yes Alrition
26 No
C7 Yes
4 OK
26 No
Defente No 43 to
7 OK
Yes Kzg 33
Crt Defense
DK 17
Yes 37
No 52
DK 11
Poll/every trade 45 Y
43 N
11 DK
Busing
Yes 20
No 71
DK 7
Fed / local
local 63
Fed 24
GERALD FORD
DK 13
of total
NYT May 6 NYT/CBS
GOP
votes
1/3 of Wallace 172 voters voted GOP -
311 Reagan
moderates 50 conserv 50
3:2 Ford
3:2 Reagan
Kissinga Bad 70/30 Reagon
same/
Good 70 30 Ford
economy same on worse 2:1 Reagan
in splet race! welfare,
40% better 2:1 ford
NYT
4/21/76
Carter voters more likely RMN
More tikely to desert if Cater obesat
get -
economic issues
4090 too much
for. fort sing
help to
Carter : winer foutsider
Nichigan defection
1/2 hell Wallace 1/2 voters
conserv dams
went those cop-hastly who stayed Reagan Dem went
FORD of 079339 LIBRARY
mostly for Carter
blad
{- - Ford defections 1/3 world go Carter in
Conter 1 Reason
Walace - Reagan defectors realy 402 - would so
TG Carter in Ford Carter
[June 1976]
Electability
Holding me Center
Carter as Foil
1) states
Electoral
2) Polls
3) Elements of Winning Constituency
4) key Issues
Gvc-
5) Personality
LIBRERA GERALD : FORD
Arguements as winner
1) Regional 1 NO
2) states wiR Crossorers ?-NO
3) Popular Vates - NO
4) Polls - Yes Indeps + Derus
5) 3 tates needed to win general - YES
Border states + California
Reagan strength wrong places and/or not enough
Comptoring the Center - CAV
Turnout low
Wallace looters
detect Regan
Regan Record of Party in Calif
People on ticket better off with Ford
Young strength
Sig section of independents
Pealing of Democ. Coalitican
68 - Wallace + Humphrey vs RN.
LIBRARY GERALD FORD
Raising specter of '64
knocking off incumbert President - lame duck
Ford as Winner
I. Use of Argument
A Public
News
B Advocates
Public
Conventions
C PFC
D Party Pros t Delegates Elected Officials
IX. Types of Aguements
A Empirical Endence
Polling - Public National/State by state
Uoting - Primaries + Past
B conventional Wisdom
C Electoral strategy
D sophistication
Strongths - Weaknesses
III. Carter - ABC Democrat
Ford as winner
Reagan as loser
GERALD B. FORD
[Vune 1976?
FORD/REAGAN IMPACT ON NORMAL DEMOCRATIC CONSTITUENCY:
A COMPARISON
In the race against Carter, the GOP nominee will probably
be significantly less able to draw the votes of former sup-
porters of Wallace away from the Democrats. Thus it becomes
of critical importance that the GOP candidate attract votes
from other elements of the normal Democratic constituency.
The President can do this, but with some exceptions, Reagan
cannot. Following is an element by element comparison of the
predicted Ford/Reagan performance among normally Democratic
constituences.
FORD is LIBRARY BERALD
I. JEWISH VOTERS
American Jews represent only 3-4% of the American
population, but two factors combine to give them an
importance far out of proportion to their numbers. The
first is that they are concentrated in a relatively small
number of very large states -- NY, Illinois, California,
Pennsylvania and Florida (156 electoral votes) where a
shift in their voting patterns can be decisive. The second
is that they have the highest percentage of voters of any
identifiable group in the population. They votes solidly
Democratic until 1972. While Jews apparently dislike Carter,
this clearly does not mean that any GOP candidate will
receive their support. Rather, if Carter takes positions
on certain issues acceptable to the Jewish community, the
critical question will be how much of their vote the GOP
candidate will draw away. Ford will clearly draw more of
their vote than will Reagan. The reasons for this are:
1. Jewish economic liberals are less likely to be
alienated by (indeed many of them support) the President's
economic reform proposals such as deregulation, antitrust
reform, and so on than they will be by Reagan's insistence
that government leave the marketplace altogether.
2. Jewish social liberals are less likely to be
alienated by the President's plan to minimize busing than
by Reagan's proposal for a total ban on busing.
3. Administration foreign policy toward Israel in
the U.N. has been supported by the Jewish community, so
Reagan would do no better on this front.
4. A Reagan candidacy will clearly be less acceptable
to Jews from a religious point of view. Reagan takes a
religious tac similar to Carter's, an approach which has
clearly alienated Jewish voters. Reagan's attack on the
school prayer decisions is also likely to cause severe losses
among Jewish voters.
CONCLUSION: A Carter candidacy will probably mean a sub-
stantial vote for the GOP nominee if the nominee is President
Ford.
:
FORD
GERALD
LIBRARY
II. BLACK VOTERS
Blacks contribute from 15-20% of total Democratic
support. While they have apparently Voted fairly heavily
for Carter in the early Democratic primaries, poll data
shows that their loyalty to him, a compared to other
Democratic candidates is not that strong. This suggests
that their 90+% loyalty rate to Johnson and Humphrey may
return to earlier 70% levels if Carter is the candidate.
This will be far more likely to happen, however, if Ford
rather than Reagan is the GOP candidate. The reasons for
this are as follows:
1. African Policy -- Even the most superficial
analysis of the positions taken by the Ford Administration
as cmpared to those taken by Reagan suggests that Reagan
has very probably alienated many black voters, while the
Ford policies are seen as at least steps in the right
direction.
2. Busing -- Again, Reagan's views are almost calcu-
lated to alienate many blacks.
3. Economic Policy -- President Ford will be running
on a strong record of economic recovery, while Reagan has
no record in this area and his views on the economic role
of government are, as poll data clearly indicates, anathema
to blacks.
aND
4. Ford has appointed a number of prominent visible
blacks.
CONCLUSION: In general, a Ford candidacy seems likely to
produce at least some black support, while a Reagan candi-
dacy would mean this vote would go completely to the
Democrats.
FORD is GERALD LIBRARY
III. CATHOLICS
Catholics and Jews taken together have consistently
contributed approximately 40% of n Democratic vote.
Governor Reagan and the President would probably do about
equally well among Catholic voters who vote Republican if
Carter is the Democratic candidate. Catholic voters tend
to be economic liberals, but social conservatives. Thus
Reagan's slight edge among Catholic voters based on his
social issue stands (abortion, busing, to a lesser extent
school prayer) would probably be offset by losses of
potential GOP Catholic voters as a result of his economic
views. The probability that this is the case is
strengthened by the fact that the President has far
stronger support among younger voters, of whom many are
Catholic.
CONCLUSION: The social issue stands of significance to
these voters would probably be abortion, busing and to a
significantly less extent, school prayer.
FORD & LIBRARY 9ERVLD
IV. UNION MEMBERS
Union members generally contribute a high proportion
of Democratic support. Union members have rarely been
overwhelming loyal to the Democrats, and a Carter candi-
dacy seems likely to leave open the possibility that the
GOP candidate will receive a higher than average number
of union member votes. While neither candidate has a
record which suggests that it would naturally draw large
numbers of union votes, the President's position with
union members would probably be stronger than that of
Reagan. The President has a strong proven track record
on economic issues and has been considerably less critical
of labor in general than has Reagan. The common situs
veto would
cirtainly
be a neutral factor
between Ford
and Reagan because Reagan probably wouldn't have signed
it either.
FORD is QERVID LIBRARY
6
GERATO sto FORD
Key Issue Differences between President Ford
and Governor Reagen and their impact on
the Electorate
Both President Ford and Governor Reagen are
conservative men, a fact which the GOP
primaries hold this year have tended to
obscure. Bath Men agree that the
United States need to maintain a strong
national defence, posture, and that the Federal
government in thould n otherwise play, a much
smaller role in our national life then it
the candidates have taken tomouhat different
Now does. But on a number of issues
positions, them making probablefhat they will
In general, Governor Reagan in shightly more likely
general election. the trouble is that
appeal to different confitencies in the
appeal otherwise
to have appeal to the deep Jonth than
is the President and comiderably less
likely to appeal to Northern voters, if the
It is also
GOP primaries are any indication of the likely
clean that
pattern of
voting in the Fall.
This
Governor Reagon has
means that unless & Reagan can defect
alip taken
Carter in his home territory, he is likely
to lose very badly.
providentl certain
the in this
Foreign Policy - TROOPS Based V. an his NEGOTIATION recent public statemputs,
Reagan is comidinably More willing to commit
the United States to foreign land wars
than is the President. while this position
charly has same appeal in the Santh and
to
3
per haps in the West, it seem unlikely to
7
postune are likely to blunt & Reason, attacks
and his consistent support far a strom befere
treased Carter's military backs round
the effectives of
On the
South. with clearly cost Reigan votes
cost Carter significant numbers of votes in the
ofher hand,
everywhere else in the country. President
Fond's attempts to regotiate much settlements of various
position will Reagons
unlernational disputes seem ^ more likely to
have broad popular appeal. una this fact inticat
conclusion is n by Jackson's loss to
Carter in Florida and the collapee of this Jackson's
campaign nationally. Recent Galhip po u data
whom Kissinger, has
(WP, June 6) indicates that secret any
/
Israel - Reagans attacks on the Ford policy
paga
of allached,
toward Israel were insigned, and are unlikely,
for reasons discussed check to draw
is a
asset to
him. significant numbers of Jewish voters to
the menistration
of Domestic Policy
which the Ford policy might
Adminis iv area.
nuall gurner for the Got.
Busing - Discossed elsewhere are The impac to of
R the Admin,
substantial can paint to
Earn Pl. Delegulation R/form Laissez fa ive
the Reagan busing position on various Democratic
progresh in
support groups has been dis cussed elsewhere.
this area
As was. shown there, the Reagan busing
ching the
position is likely to mean the loss
patential/votas from various Democrabic
Fanthermore, the President
will
groups. On the
has the
more successful than the Presidents position in
that the Reasan position
other hand, there is little prifence
alvanting of
his experience
and of has
from Carter. Carters anti- fored busing position
drawing the notes of former Wallace supporters away
M
position incumbent. as
seem likely to satily those who would
otherwise be miclined to support him
8
Economic Policy
General - The major diff erence between the
,while
President and Reagan on matters of economic
policy seems to have been that the b President
leagan not
does
has recognized the fact that to effect rtubs tantial
of government will By bequire some time,
change in economic policy the economic role
members
and may not be as thorough-gaing as
that reform
they
of
some laissez- faire school of might like,
thought
1. the President signed a budget which contained
provision for some deficit spending because
he felt that it was a worhable comptomise
effect Reagan apposed this budget
and if would have generally beneficial
and because
the signing the
because if contained a deficit, the President
appear do have decided conectly because the
took steam much ant of
5.
economic picture has steadily improved,
2.
the Dem.
industry. Reagon proposed the sale of the TVA to private
tach on
This proposal ahemated
a
Admin policy. ec.
even the conservative voters who would the pults in
otherwise favor Gavernar Reagan, as the TN/KY primary
3.
Reagan proposed that the social security showed.
trust fund be invested in exemity securities
of private companies This would the elec for tion 11
R.FORD LIBRARY
major enterrise private investor in private
have turned the government into a
this was clearly an underviable
result, and them comex vatines propert
appoaed this proposal. At the same time
security payments to ease the burdens of infleting
the President has proposed increases in social
on SR. citying who which represent a powerful votime block in
9
4. Ford proposal for deregulation and strengthed
antitant enforcement have been extremely
well received. annroached the fact that the
basis
+
President has heady the proper problem
propost
aller n a cafe by case proposing study across the rather
only
the
than simply because he
careful study
given maximum play, has had 2 important
the free market system should always be
offects: first, it makes Adminis that in
among groups who natimally strongly appose
deregulation proposals for more credible
such actions and secondly it makes
Administration apposition to certain
Democrabic proposals much more believer
and Mre likely to succeed.
this is
an area where, f potential non Republican
voters are not to be alienated, chame
must be, caufully shaped. The Ford,
must be juadual and public consensers
P.U data
Administration has shown if can olevelop
this consensus. It teems clears that
Suggeots
to drive those potential voters Ewar.
Reagan's positions would for for more likely
to take just ane concrete example, Illingis
t Unsionsin Jumary voting results tuggest subs trutial
poomises to has largely eliminate government invo wement
support for admin. FARM policy which
in the agricultural techn of the economy.
(over)
GERMAN TORD LIBRANT
Conclusion General - In general, Reagan economic policy
the support of large wombers of voters
seem for more likely to cost the party
who an social conservatives but economic moderates
or liberal By. The Ford policies, on the
other hand, male if likely that this tantial
change will in fact occur., At and the sametime n Ford the
to anattack which many economic 3 mornates will
economic record js unlikely to be vylnerable
agree with.
10
Bureaucracy - Governor Reagan attachs on the
federal government will be deprived of a
is the Democrabic candidat. While Razon
large pat of their effectiveness if Carter
on this issue, Carter can point to his
can point to his mixed record in California
in Georgia, and he has clearly been able
to run will with this issue. Nor
will the President le mulnerable to Carter
point to his record of nebses his consickul
or this Seare. The President carp
appointion to the creation of was if ven prozrams,
and his plans to maly some of the agencies
policies dereg latin, anfi bring, and heremic-sharing
significantly less intrusive they through his
11
w
the stylet Personalities of President Ford and Governor
Reajan and then impact an the fall Election-
A Comparison
Survey data consistenth domonstrates that elgctions
in which both candidates are teen as moderatos
an the issues are decided at least in substantial,
part an personality, while elections in which
either are an both candidates are vaived as
extremists are like to be based somewhat
more on issue votim. of the If
Carter is the Democratic nominee, and if hoth
GOP candidates are perceived as moderates by
the electorate, President Fand's personality
would compare murh more Lavorath with Carter's
than would that of Governor style Reagan Not
only would Governor Reagan parmality have
wauld fend to rein orce Many negative steventypes
negative associations Lar Many noters, it
of the GOP held by large numbers of
American voters.
1. Style - Govemer Reagan is some what more articulate
than in the President as his ability to get
However, are usually patibay
enthosiastic responses from his audines shows
audien,ces, and Reagans anticulateness has stoong
negative associations for voters other than Rengan
partisons Reagon is often thought of as
often cambined with the following
too "shick" - and this perception is
FORD 070839 LIBRARY
association 1 indiffact or uncaring
superficial, puchaps dishourst, a "politician."
12
while they
have had the to
it is important to note that these wating
effect
to ther
regation stereotyn of the Republican party -
associations are very timilar to widely held
that the GOP is uncaring and in dishonert.
deal wealthin than the President He is
Furthermore, Reagn is personally a good
therefore much more likely to be mind as
a friend of Big Buziness, less sny mpathefic
to the needs of the poor and the middle
class (groups in which many of the Wallace
voters are exucentrated. Again, these
associations reinforce artain widely held,
and very arganing concerning the
Republican party. Since (atter is alsol
personally onto wealth and Fond is much
More used to be able to capitaling on
this than is Reagan,
made statements
or hanguing the drug of their compaigns.
- Both Reagon and Carter have
been susceptible to antbpeaks of anger. at
moments. the Indead,
Jackson this as q basis for
his attachs an Carlos in Pennsy Wania the
Prident is widely perceived as more trained
and judicious in his choice of words and actions.
this difference could prove to be of tremomlaus
importance in a make when personalities are a
significant issue since this tyou of res train t
appearsuato be an essential attinbute of a President
toth public
in a meleor age. in the public mind.
GERALD R. FORD
13
Sincerely - Roft Ford and Reagan will project
equally well on this dimension against Carter.
Decisiveness - As President, Ford will obvious
be in a much better position to demonstrate
his decisiveness while the President will
be vulnerable to with regard attachs based fo, on shifts in Administration
policy, there is no reason to believe Reagon
will face better on this Score. Infeed, Karin
<
had been severely damaged by his ebandonment
Phillips recently noted that Reagans aedibility
during
the
primaries,
of several positions than making him More
vuluerable in the general election (Phillips,
Openness - the ) Democratic Party is perceived by
voters as much more open than the GOP to
change in all respects, President Ford
is much more likely to be perceived as open
than is Reagan. Bett Ford will clearly be 9
fremendous ascet to the Resident in this respect,
Religionity - Ford against probably stronger on
cartey
this dimension than Reagan he brings
this will be on abset for him with more
less "Immelical ferver to what he does.
moderate Pretestant (+ Catholic ?) denominations
members. Any drawing power Reagan wight have
on this dimension space would per bably be
offset by other Carter associations.
DERALO FORD LIBRARY
14
General Electric Turnout and its Effect on Ford/
Roagan Candidacies: A Comparison
suggest that the election this year will be
the result of this years primames strongly
characteryl by relatively low voter fusnout
the willance MAN the primaries so for is that
the substantial decrease in primary furnout on
the Demodrabic side, to the extent that is not
simply a soflection of an overall decline is
a woult of the fact that
many of Wallaces former voters have stayed
at home.
Since the Reagan constituency, if
include large numbers of these voters, this suggests
Reason is to win the general election, most
that, when combined will other factors discussed
below, a Reagen candidor would be wechen
than might be indicated by poll results tahen
alone. In a Low turnant election:
Groups whose HistoricpHigh ally, Relative Groups whose Historically
Turninet Importance Gives them Exaggerated
dow A Turnout Given them
less importance
tp,
Jews
Union members
ATS
Republicans
Blacks
Catholics
Santherners
LIBRARY SERALD $ 1020
286
Young Veters
$ 4 This table reinforces the impression that
Since MANY
Wallace votes which Realgn must depend on make
of Wallacessom
heavily them the President will play & much
are but
less important vole in this election than
they union
From Newbers.
they have previousty. On the other hand,
the President will do be the than Reagen
from
V
tor FOR of st if tom your
Hand 11% O to Affrr prong
promy the to from myll 10-10-1 Y arring
1020 my my = to crosting from
Emer
tofoo impany poogh mont grown and www
1 form 1°CC the Hy
Iff
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Information
19)
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Block?
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from milto F $98 roundf
our
OLS
Min to forev ingryon mayo X maps
16t you Compling 46 Purpase t most
s)
I's
surgings fairl of from refore 16: tranking
tran It in to mosel
its Naws f Mollarno famina for storrby
yours to from of
shing E f amay yours 2-
of of to 16.7
too Ergo to to irport 16 t 12 not
H imgines X 90 your 16°F
t6 prossnt M. In 3
and 1000 r 1 soft
16th to to In A
Nebra the X T st
A
of pay any if Nit N
15
among Junih voters and would mm a bant
eventy among Catholics Both there groups
will be even more significant than they
usually are in the 1976 election.
FORD is 018830 LIBRARY
If the split had been
Democratic, WHH would have won
by inther or 16 votes. 27)
1968 Election Results - Assuming 55-45 Wallace
Vote Split
1968
Margin
WINNER if Winwer
State WiNNeR Electoral Vote (1972)
Wallace 90
Splitto
if
SplittoR
Wash HHH
9
2.1
7.4
HHH
MN HHH
10
12.5
4
HHH
HHH
Texas HHH
26
1.2
19.0
HHH
RMN
W. VA. HMH
6
8.8
9.6
HHH
HHH
MD HHH
10
1.7
14.5
HHH
RMN
PeNN. HHH
27
3.6
8.0
HHH
HHH
New York HHH
41
5.5
5.3
HHH
HHH
CONN HHH
8
5,2
6.1
HHH
HHH
D.C.
HHH
3
63
-
HHH
HHH
Hawaii HHH
4
22
1.5
HHH
HHH
Rhad Isl.
HH H
4
32.2
4.1
HHH
HHH
Maine
HHH
4
12.2
1.6
HHH
HHH
Mass,
WHH
14
30.1
3.7
HHH
HHH
25.05
Ark
GCW
6
N/A
38.8
HHH
RMN
LA.
GQW
10
N/A
48.3
HHH
RMN
Aliss.
GCW
7
N/A
63.5
HHH
HHH
Ala-
GCW
10
N/A
67.2
HHH
as-as
RMN
GA.
GCW
12
N/A
43.8
HHH
RMN
IOWA
RMN
8
12.2
5.7
RMN
RMN
Ks
RMN
7
20
10
"
"
FORD
Ky
RMN
6
11
11
9
18.3
Mo
RMN
12
1.2
11.4
LIBRARY
?
RMV
Mont
RMN
4
9
7.3
RMN
RMN
Neb.
RMN
5
28
8.4
RMN
RMN
Neva,
RMN
3
8.2
13.3
RMN
RMN
NH
RMN
4
f.z
11
3.8
"
RMN
2.1
9.1
"
NJ
17
11
NM
RMN
4
"
./
12.1
7.9
1968 Election 55-45 Wallace split
Winnerit Wino
state 1965 Winer Elect, Vote (1972) Margin Wallace E Split D Splits if
NC
RMD
13
16.3
31.3
RMN
QMN
ND
3
17.7
5.8
11
11
RMN
"
"
OH
25
2.Z
11.8
Okla
11
8
15.7
20.3
if
6
6.1
11
11
Oreg.
6
11
"
SC
8
8.5
32.3
4
11
11
SD
11.3
4,8
11
"
TN
10
9.8
34
"
"
Utal
4
19.4
6.4
3
9.3
"
"
Vt.
3.2
Va.
11
10,9
"
11
23.6
7,6
"
"
Wisc.
11
3.6
"
"
Wyo.
3
20.3
8.7
Alaska
"
"
3
2.6
12.1
Ariz.
6
9.6
11
"
19.8
"
Calif.
45
il
3
6.7
Colo
or
"
7
9.2
7.5
Del.
"
3
3.5
d
13.3
Fla.
"
17
9.6
28.5
"
"
4
12
IDAH.
26.1
12.6
Ill.
26
2.9
8.5
"
11
IND.
12.3
11.5
"
"
13
FORD
States HHH won which go GOP w/ 55-45 GOP split:
LIBRARY
(Total Elect. notes) : 36
States Wallace won which go GOP w/ 55-45 GOP split:
(Total Elect. voter) ; 38
States Wallace won which go DEM w/ 55-45 Dem Split:
Total Elect votes : 45
States RMN won which go DEM w/ 55-45 DEM split:
Total Elect votes : 0 OR 12 (Missouri).
[June 1976]
Electability
Primary Results
Nat'l Polls
Electoral strates,
state Polls
1964
incombert President
RR margin schind
Positioning - RR extreme
RR Arguements
Anti- Washington
Wallace+ + Republicans
Strong in Right Places
FORDO is DERALD LIBRARY
[June 1976]
President Ford The Winner in November
I
Gerald Food has a stoong record as President
A. under his leadership, intlation her been cut in
half and Rure are 1.3 million new jobs.
B. President Ford is the first in urmbent since Eisenhow
who can caropaign with R nation at peace
C. President Ford has restored trust and writence
in government.
II
President Ford runs aread of Reagan against Carter
in every national poll
Ford
Carter
Undec
Reason Caster under
Harris
40
53
7
35
58
7
Gallup
39
53
8
35
58
Y
Time?
Wash 2
34
48
3250
NBC
III
Resident Ford has a national appeal
A. He is the national choice of Republicans
Ford Regan undecided
Harris
60
30
10
NBC
60
30
10
QERALD 8. FORD. LIBRARY
Gallup
51
41
8
B. He is R national boice of independents
Gallup Ford Rengan Underided
52
33
13
ineiPer pasty
C. President Ford is the only candidate to win
primaries in all octions of The country
NH 4
Vt. 3
Mass 14
F/o. 17
Ill 26
Wisc 11
NY 41
Pena. 27
DC 3
W.Va. 6
Md. 10
Mich 21
Ky
9
Tenn 10
Ore. 5
RT
4
FORDO & 07/839 LIBRARY
NJ 17
QUIO 25
253
Reagan has when only one primary ontside Re Sunselt. The total
electoral vote strong of his privacy vidories is 141,
Ear short of R 270 needed to nominate
[June 1976]
/. Ford has a strong record as President
Peace Presperity + Trust
2. Food runs ahead of Regan ingainst United in every
national poll.
3. Ford has a national appeal to
Republicans
Independents
Primary Victories
Electoral Votes
4. Reagan risks another 1964
23 points behind (no one else like Ret since Stereasin)
Reagan's strength is in wrons places
won't get Wallace voto
Too Exteme
FORD is LIBRARY 938839
AFTER THE PRIMARIES: SOME STATISTICS WHICH
[Jane 1976]
SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTHS OF REAGAN, FORD, AND
CARTER
All regions are PFC regions. All percentages are based on
the Ford and Reagan vote.
REGION
FORD %
REAGAN %
ELECTORAL VOTE
Northeast
77
23
165
South
47.3
52.7
100
Great Plains
46
54
49
Southwest
33
67
40
Northwest
36
64
70
Rocky Mountain
29
71
18
Midwest
58
42
96
Using these figures as showing regional leads, :
Ford leads 63-37 in regions containing 261 electoral votes (MW+NE)
Reagan leads 60-40 in regions containing 277 electoral votes (w,S,GPAL
BUT: When the Northeast, South, and Midwest are combined
(361 electoral votes), Ford leads Reagan 60-40.
When the Northeast, South, Midwest, and Great Plains regions
are combined (410 electoral votes), Ford leads Reagan 59x4k. 59. 5-40.5
2. Reagan leads Ford in regions containing 177 electoral votes:
Great Plains, Southwest, Northwest, Rocky Mountains: 64-36;
but in those regions, Democratic primary voters cast 62% more
votes than GOP primary voters.
3. In the Northeast, South, and Midwest, regions containing
361 electoral votes, Carter received nearly 100% more votes
than Reagan, but in these same regions, Ford outra Reagan
by 20% (50% more votes) and got nearly 80% of Carter's vote.
LIBRARY GERALD ? FORD
N poll rel. 6/14 shows 1 pt.
diff. betw. Canter/Ford + Carter/Reager So. in
Page 2
4. When the home states of both Ford and Reagan are omitted
(to compensate for home state advantage), Ford led Reagan
56 to 44 in all of the rest of the primary states.
6. Ford led Reagan 55-45 when the South and Midwest are
combined. (265 electoral votes)
7. In the Midwest and Northeast, with a total of 261 electoral
votes, :
Ford: 3461579
Carter: 3472171
Reagan: 2025307
Thus, Carter received 71% more votes in the Midwest and
Northeast than Reagan, but only 3% more than Ford.
8. When the South, Midwest, Southwest and Northwest are
combined: (306 electoral votes)
Ford: 4010333
or 49. 7%
Reagan: 4057107
or 50.3%
9. When the South, West, and Northeast are combined: (375EV)
Ford: 2919000
or 48.8
Reagan: 3061000
or 51.2
10.
When the West, Midwest, and Northeast are combined (371 EV):
Ford: 4573
or 53
Reagan: 4035
47
BERALD B. FORD RART 11.
Reagan won only I primary outside
of the South + West, and by a 51-49
marzin
Survey data NY T
5/6 ofic shows he would have lost
crossomers he would not have gotten
Indiana without the benefit of wallace
in 1964.
June 9, 1976
MEMORANDUM FOR:
JOHN DEERDOURFF
FROM:
FOSTER CHANOCK
SUBJECT:
Missouri Convention Handout
1. Ford-Reagan among Republicans.
GALLUP
HARRIS
Ford
Reagan
Undecided
Ford
Reagan
Undecided
May
60
35
5
60
30
10
April
56
32
12
59
30
11
March
51
41
8
60
30
10
February
55
35
10
51
34
15
2. No Republican can be elected without Independents.
GALLUP
Ford Reagan Undecided
May
52
33
15
April
50
32
18
March
49
37
14
FORD is LIBRARY
February
44
31
25
-2-
3. No Republican can win the Presidency without carrying a
majority of the following states' electoral votes.
* Pennsylvania (27)
Missouri (12)
* Illinois (26)
*
Wisconsin (11)
* Michigan (21)
* Maryland (10)
* Ohio (25)
*
Florida (17)
* New Jersey (17)
* Kentucky (9)
California (45)
* Tennessee (10)
Texas (26)
( * States won by President in the primaries. )
4. Ford is a stronger national candidate than Reagan.
GALLUP
Ford/Carter Ford/Humphrey
June 1976 40 / 52
45 / 46
I
Reagan/Carter Reagan/Humphrey
37 / 55
42 / 52
HARRIS
May 1976 43 / 47
I
35 / 53
June 40/53
35/50
FORD is LIBRARY
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
June 3, 1976
MEMORANDUM FOR:
FOSTER CHANOCK
FROM:
DAVE GERGEN
SUBJECT:
Voting in Primaries
Judy Muhlberg has just pulled together results from all
of the primaries held so far. With three big ones left,
here's how things stand:
-- The President has a margin of a little better
than 52-48% over Reagan in all of the votes in Republican
primaries. The actual vote margin is about 340,000 in
the President's favor.
-- Breaking the vote into regions (the same regional
definitions used by the PFC), the President has more votes
than Reagan in the Midwest and Northeast and is about even
in the North West. Reagan is leading in the South, the
Plains, and the Rocky Mountain states.
--- On the Democratic side, Carter has collected about
42% of the total Democratic votes cast so far.
-- Overall, about twice as many voters have pulled
the Democratic lever in the primaries as the Republican
one. Note that the Democratic total is inflated by over
a million votes because there were no GOP votes in
Pennsylvania and D.C. Nonetheless, the Democratic margin
is still about 2-1.
--- Total GOP votes have exceeded total Democratic
votes in the Great Plains and Rocky Mountain areas and
have been almost equal in the Midwest.
-- Total Democratic votes have exceeded total GOP
votes by a margin of 3-1 in the South, 3-1 in the South-
west, and 2-1 in the North East.
FORD LIBRARY is GERALD
- 2 -
-- Total GOP votes have exceeded total Democratic
votes in the following states: New Hampshire, Illinois,
Michigan, Nebraska, South Dakota and Idaho.
Attachments
FORD : LIBRARY 938830
PRIMARY VOTE BY REGION
REPUBLICAN
DEMOCRAT
REGION
FORD
REAGAN
OTHER
TOTAL
CARTER
OTHER
TOTAL
North East
451,807
320,880
25,887
799,071
1,074,433
2,375,017
3,479,934
Southern
621,807
691,586
3,362
1,316,755
1,925,155
1,724,705
3,910,244
Mid West
1,780,376
1,260,720
16,499
3,059,595
1,625,595
1,729,225
3,370,505
Great
129,983
154,743
288,237
90,018
133,946
231,141
Plains
South West
151,032
309,936
2,052
463,020
736,161
679,429
1,544,907
North West
160,678
164,858
325,536
131,102
352,593
488,290
Rocky Mtns
37,462
91,593
129,844
21,830
105,100
127,934
TOTALS
3,333,145
2,994,316
47,800
6,382,058
5,604,294
7,100,015 13,152,955
LIBRANT GERALD FORD
REPUBLICAN
DEMOCRAT
REGION
FORD
REAGAN
OTHER
TOTAL
CARTER
OTHER
TOTAL
North East
Conn
Del
D.C.
Ford
ran unopposed
--
9,281
14,079
23,360
Kent
67,868
62,567
130,435
181,291
112,423
305,566
Maine
Mass
115,375
63,555
14,481
193,411
101,948
645,686
747,364
N.J.
N.Y.
Penn
Ford ran unopposed
506,898
855,164
1,362,062
R.I.
9,329
4,406
14,232
18,141
23,357
60,400
Va.
W Va
82,281
62,975
145,256
321,701
321,701
N.H.
55,156
53,569
11,155
119,880
23,373
59,008
82,381
Ver
27,014
4,892
251
32,157
16,335
22,379
38,714
Md
94,784
68,916
163,700
217,166
321,220
538,386
451,807
320,880
25,887
799,071
1,074,433
2,375,017
3,479,934
Southern
Ala
19,114
35,007
/
54,121
167,804
318,430
683,000
Ark
11,449
20,209
31,658
315,553
129,091
502,151
Ga
59,801
128,671
188,472
411,616
78,941
490,557
La
Miss
N.C.
88,897
101,468
3,362
193,727
324,437
280,395
604,832
S.C.
Okla
P.R.
Tenn
120,564
118,394
238,958
256,901
66,362
329,374
Vir Is
Fla
321,982
287,837
609,819
448,844
851,486
1,300,330
621,807
691,586
3,362
1,316,755
1,925,155
Mid West
1,724,705
3,910,244
Ill
456,750
311,295
7,848
777,893
630,915
680,999
1,311,914
Ind
307,582
323,772
631,354
417,463
196,898
614,361
Mich
689,540
363,791
8,651
1,061,982
305,997
382,020
703,702
Ohio
Wisc
326,504
261,862
588,366
271,220
469,308
740,528
1,780,376/1,260,720
16,499
3,059,595
1,625,595
1,729,225
Great Plains
3,370,505
Iowa
Kans
Minn
Mo
Neb
93,299
112,116
205,415
65,263
107,152
172,415
N.Dak
S.Dak
36,684
42,627
82,822
24,755
26,794
58,726
129,983
154,743
288,237
90,018
133,946
South West
231,141
Ari
N.Mex
Texas
151,032
309,936
2,052
463,020
736,161
679,429
1,544,907
Utah
151,032
309,936
2,052
463,020
736,161
679,429
1,544,907
North West
Alaska
GERALD
Guam
LIBRASY
Hawaii
Nev
13,767
31,616
45,383
17,538
53,090
75,223
Ore
146,911
133,242
280,153
113,564
299,503
413,067
Wash
Calif
160,678
164,858
325,536
131,102
352,593
Rocky Mtns
488,290
Col
Idaho
22,240
66,583
88,823
8,782
62,904
72,690
Mont
15,222
25,010
41,021
13,048
42,196
55,244
Wyoming
37,462
91,593
129,844
21,830
105,100
127,934
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
June 17, 1976
MEMORANDUM FOR:
DICK CHENEY
FROM:
DAVE GERGEN of
SUBJECT:
Voting in the Primaries
Judy Muhlberg has pulled together the final results from the primaries.
From this information, one can make the following observations:
-- The President had a margin of 52-48% (51.5-47.8%) over
Reagan in all of the votes in Republican primaries. The actual
vote margin is about 388, 000 in the President's favor.
-- Breaking the vote into regions (the same regional definitions
used by the PFC), the President had more votes than Reagan in the
Midwest and the Northeast. Reagan led in the South, the Great Plains,
the Northwest, and the Rocky Mountain states.
-- On the Democratic side, Carter collected about 39% of the
total Democratic votes cast. Prior to the June 8th primaries, he
held 42% of the total Democratic votes.
-- Overall, the Democratic vote exceeded the GOP vote by about
a 60-40 margin (57-43). Note that the Democratic total is inflated
because there were no GOP votes in D. C. and New Jersey. Nonetheless,
the Democratic margin is still about 2-1.
-- Total GOP votes exceeded total Democratic votes in the Great Plains
and Rocky Mountain areas.
-- Total Democratic votes exceeded total GOP votes by a margin of 3-1
in the South, 3-1 in the Southwest, and 4-1 in the North East (Keeping
in mind, however, that there were not GOP votes in two of the contests
in the North East region.)
FORD is LIBRARY BERALD
-- Total GOP votes exceeded total Democratic votes in the following
states: New Hampshire, Indiana, Michigan, Nebraska, South Dakota,
and Idaho.
-- The President ran ahead of Carter in the Mid West, the Great
Plains, the Northwest, and the Rocky Mountain states, although
Carter's actual vote margin over the President is approximately 2
million votes.
Attachments
FORD i 078870 LIBRARY
LIBRARY
FORD
PRIMARY VOTE BY REGION
is
GERALD
REGION
FORD
REAGAN
OTHER
TOTAL
CARTER
OTHER
TOTAL
North East 1,185,315 361,468
26,395
1,573,177
1,278,090
2,513,748' 4,016,985
Southern
621,807
691,989
3,846
1,317,613
1,925,155 1,724,705 3,910,244
Mid West
2,276,264 1,663,839
19,050
3,960,153
2,194,081 2,252,117 4,461,883
Great
130,218
155,120
4,055
289,393
90,018
133,946
231,141
Plains
South West
151,032
309,936
2,052
463,020
736,161
679,429 1,544,907
North West
961,230 1,701,279
2,365 2,664,874
821,556 2,949,958 3,852,519
Rocky Mtns.
37,462
91,593
-----
129,844
21,830
105,100
127,934
TOTALS
5,363,328 4,975,224
57,763 10,398,074
7,066,891 10,359,003 18,145,613
REPUBLICAN
DEMOCRAT
REGION
FORD
REAGAN
OTHER
TOTAL
CARTER
OTHER
TOTAL
North East
Conn
Del
D.C.
Ford ran unopposed --
9,281
14,079
23,360
Kent
67,868
62,567
130,435
181,291
112,423
305,566
Maine
Mass
115,375
63,555
14,481
193,411
101,948
645,686
747,364
N.J.
Ford ran unopposed
203,657
138,731
537,061
N.Y.
by Delegate
Penn
733,472
40.514
733.986
506,898
855,164
1,362,062
R.I.
9,365
4,480
508
14,352
18,141
23,357
60,400
Va
W Va
82,281
62,975
145,256
321,701
321,701
N.H.
55,156
53,569
11,155
119,880
23,373
59,008
82,381
Ver
27,014
4,892
251
32,157
16,335
22,379
38,714
Md
94,784
68,916
163,700
217,166
321,220
538,386
1,185,315
361,468
26,395
1,573,177
1,278,090
2,513,748
4,016,985
Southern
Ala
19,114
35,007
/
54.121
167,804
318,430
683,000
Ark
11,449
20,612
484
32,546
/
315,553
129,091
502,151
Ga
59,801
128,671
188,472
411,616
78,941
490,557
La
Miss
N.C.
88,897
101,468
3,362
\
193,727
324,437
280,395
604,832
S.C.
Okla
P.R.
Tenn
120,564
118,394
238,958
256,901
66,362
329,374
Vir Is
Fla
321,982
287,837
609,819
448,844
851,486
1,300,330
621,807
691,989
3,846
1,317,613
1,925,155
1,724,705
3,910,244
[id West
Ill
456,750
311,295
7,582
\
775,627
\
630,915
680,999
1,311,914
Ind
307,582
323,772
631,354
417,463
196,898
614,361
Mich
689,540
363,791
8,651
1,061,982
305,997
382,020
703,702
Ohio
495,523
403,855
899,378
568,486
522,892
1,091,378
Wisc
326,869
I
262,126
2,817
591,812
271,220
469,308
740,528
2,276,264
1,663,839
19,050
3,960,153
\
2,194,081
2,252,117
4,461,883
reat Plains
Iowa
Kans
Minn
Mo
Neb
93,299,
112,116
205,415
65,263
107,152
172,415
N.Dak
S.Dak
36,919
43,004
4,055
/
83,978
/
24,755
26,794
58,726
130,218
155,120
4,055
289,393
90,018
133,946
231,141
outh West
Ari
N.Mex
Texas
151,032
309,936
2,052
463,020
736,161
679,429
1,544,907
Utah
151,032
309,936
2,052
463,020
736,161
679,429
1,544,907
orth West
Alaska
Guam
ERALO FORD LIBRA
Hawaii
Nev
13,747
31,637
2,365
47,749
17,538
53,090
75,223
Ore
146,911
133,242
280,153
113,564
299,503
413,067
Wash
Calif
800,572
1,536,400
2,336,972
690,454
2,597,365
3,364,229
961,230
1,701,279
2,365
2,664,874
821,556
2,949,958
3,852,519
ocky Mtns
Col
Idaho
22,240
66,583
88,823
8,782
62,904
72,690
Mont
15,222
25,010
41,021
13,048
42,196
55,244
Wyoming
37,462
91,593
129,844
21,830
105,100
127,934
LAW OFFICES
Dent, Kirkland, Taylor & Wilson
HARRY S. DENT
WASHINGTON OFFICE.
STANCEL E. KIRKLAND
GRANBY LAW BUILDING
(MR. DENT ONLY)
HENRY H. TAYLOR
1700 SUNSET BOULEVARD (HWY. 378)
BOX 19527
ADDISON G. WILSON
WASHINGTON. D. C. 20006
DRAWER 175
(202) 785.9454
JOHN F. O'CONNOR. JR.
WEST COLUMBIA, SOUTH CAROLINA 29169
OF COUNSEL.
TELEPHONE (803) 796.9160
KENNETH M. ROBINSON
June 21, 1976
Dear Fellow Delegate:
As you may know, I am helping President Ford in his search for Delegate
support in the South. Attached is a column by N.Y. Times writer James Reston
echoing a course I have suggested we pursue in seeking to re-unite our party,
hold the White House, help our other candidates, and keep our party viable.
Winning in 1976 is vital for all Republicans, especially Southern
Republicans. An Imperial Carter Presidency would betray the conservative tide
running in America today. It would stifle our progress in building a 2-party
system in Dixie. Also, it would accelerate the unionization of Southern
industry, thus stalling the rapidly expanding economic and political power
which has been shifting from North to South.
The Democrats have agreed on a fuzzy candidate and a fuzzy platform
which newsmen say are viewed as conservative by those who want the conservative
approach and liberal by those who want the liberal approach. Wisely, the
Democrats want no repeat of their 1972 disaster.
In view of the good record our Republican President has compiled in
maintaining peace, promoting prosperity, and exemplifying personal integrity
and public trust, it would be unwise and unfair to dump him at our convention.
His record is worthy of party and non-party support, and no one has a better,
longer, or more effective record of service to our party and our Country.
I have not agreed with all the President's actions. However, no one we
can elect can do all we may desire because a President has to be responsive
to all the people, and he has more information upon which to make the big
judgments, as I learned in my service in the White House.
I concede the President is not a good salesman for himself and his record.
However, we can give him a running mate and others who can do a better job of
selling him, and that is as it should be. Governors Reagan and Connally could
do the selling job either as running mates or otherwise.
The attribute of Jerry Ford that most compels me to give my best effort is
the undisputed fact that he is a good and just leader who does what he believes
to be right and best for America.
If I can answer any questions I will be glad to try or get you the answer.
With best wishes, I am,
Sincerely,
your
is
Det
Harry S. Dent
HSD:lwd
BERÄLD FORD LIBRARY
The U.S.News-Letter
WASHINGTON
A Private Weekly Report And Forecast From U.S. News & World Report
2300 N Street NW Washington DC 20037
Tel (202) 333-7400 Cable Address WORLDREPOR
Friday, June 25, 1976
Dear Subscriber:
The talk in the Oval Office at the White House is -- "team up with Reagan."
Though cool to the idea, President Ford is starting to see the logic of it.
He is turning it over carefully -- hearing out the proponents who come to call.
Ford's a realist. He knows that Jimmy Carter is way out front in the polls
and he knows too that internal discord could destroy the GOP's election hopes.
Old, close advisers have been putting it to him bluntly: Join with Reagan
or forget it -- "only a unified Republican Party can be successful this year." "
The victory formula? Hold onto all Republican votes, then go out and get
enough Democrats and independents to offset Carter's basic numerical advantage.
Conversations at the White House sift some bleak probabilities: Should the GOP
fail to come to terms with itself and get Ford and Reagan into the same harness
there will be bitterness, defections and perhaps the worst GOP loss since 1964.
Neither Ford nor Reagan can afford at this point to talk openly of a merger.
They would lose face and credibility. But -- their friends can do some talking,
and that is what will happen in the weeks ahead -- gradual moves toward unity,
meetings that don't get in the papers, cooling down of the roughhouse rhetoric.
Ford will take the initiative, because he has a narrow edge in delegates
and could make the reconciliation bid in a graceful way through intermediaries.
The approach will be simple: We'd make a great team. Reagan to nail down
votes in the South and West -- including some conservative Democrats -- and Ford
to exploit Carter's rather shaky position in the Midwest and Northeastern states.
Note that Reagan -- even as No. 2 on the ticket -- would still have stature.
Why so? He's made a comeback that is already one of the year's biggest stories.
Now a seasoned campaigner, Reagan is persuasive and has proved he's no quitter.
Some Carterites, by the way, say a Ford-Reagan team is the only fear they have.
Survey Finds Ford as Strong as Reagan in the South
By JAMES M. NAUGHTON
Ford Widens Lead
A majority of Republicans on
President Ford would be at least as strong a Repub-
Despite continued evidence
both sides of the nominating
lican Presidential nominee in the South and West as would
htat Mr. Reagan was the pre-
contest agreed that Mr. Ford
ferred nominee of Republicans
had been correct to pardon
Ronald Reagan, according to the latest national survey of
in the West, the survey showed
former President Richard M.
voter attitudes by The New
that Mr. Ford had substantially
Nixón, that school busing under
widned a lead in popularity
York Times and CBS News.
among Southern Republicans in
court orders should be cur-
FORD
VERALD
LIBRART
President Ford
"A Winner in November"
The greatest concern to all Republicans as we draw near the
National Convention in Kansas City, is selecting a Presidential
candidate who is most capable of leading the Party to victory
against the probable Democratic nominee--Jimmy Carter.
As concerned Republicans, we have to listen to every argument,
because we are the ones who would feel the grass-roots effect
of a Democratic sweep. So what do the non-partisan, independent
pollsters have to say?
MYTH #1: Ronald Reagan will run stronger than Ford against
Carter in the South.
TRUTH : President Ford has run consistently better than
Reagan against Carter in the South.
Ford
Carter
Reagan
Carter
HARRIS SURVEY
38%
55%
32%
56%
May 6, 1976
N.Y. TIMES*
44%
-
39%
-
May 28, 1976
HARRIS SURVEY @
48%
-
40%
-
June 4, 1976
GALLUP POLL
32%
61%
30%
65%
June 21, 1976
Ford Most Electable GOPer
By LEE BANDY
Nationally. the latest Gallup
President now is telling dele-
Washington Bureau
Poll also shows Ford doing
gates that no one, including
much better against Carter
Reagan. is being ruled out as
WASHINGTON If Repub-
than Reagan. The President
a running mate. Ford points
lican Ronald Reagan has a
trails the Georgian by 14
out he offered Reagan two
better chance against Demo-
Washington
points. Reagan is much fur-
Cabinet positions and that he
crat Jimmy Carter in the
ther behind. 23 points to be ex-
would not have done so if the
LIBRARY
The Columbia Record
PUBLISHED BY COLUMBIA NEWSPAPERS. INC.
10-A
*
Tuesday, June 15, 1976
LIBRARY
FORD
Comment & Opinion
Together, Ford-Reagan May
body else, but unless Ford and Rea-
The Democratic leaders, if they
WASHINGTON - President Ford
and Ronald Reagan have got them-
Win
gan supporters combine against the
had had their way, would probably
Democrats, the Republicans will be in
have done the same thing, but Carter,
selves and the Republican Party into
serious trouble.
the new boy, knocked them over, and
such a pickle in the presidential elec-
Would Reagan accept second
is now putting together the party or-
tion that maybe their best hope now
place? The chances are that, if he lost
ganization, the labor union leaders
and
ine
West
and
nume
The U.S.News-Letter
WASHINGTON
A Private Weekly Report And Forecast From U.S. News & World Report
2300 N Street NW
Washington DC 20037
Tel (202) 333-7400
Cable Address WORLDREPOR
Friday, June 18, 1976
The Ford-Reagan race for the GOP nomination gets tighter as the hours pass.
The one who wins the day at the August convention will do so by a whisker.
Here's how they're now positioned: delegates for Ford, 960; for Reagan, 873,
according to an Associated Press tally. Of those remaining, 170 are uncommitted,
255 will be picked in state conventions, one backs Commerce Secretary Richardson.
As to those to be divvied up at state conventions, we did a nose count --
projections based on calls to sources in the states. Here is how it looks:
June 18-19
June 24-26
July 8-10 July 16-17
10th
/// Maxico
Colorado NOTURE DELICTER
/
Utah
Total
Ford
18
17
0
6
15
2
0
10 11
35
0
114
Reagan
18
0
4
32
3 18 21
18
7
0 20
141
If our figures are right (you'll be able to check that starting tomorrow),
the score as they head for Kansas City will be Ford, 1,074, to 1,014 for Reagan.
They will both be within one good lunge of the 1,130 needed for nomination,
and that's why the name of the game is "commit the uncommitteds." As for them,
big blocs of Reagan leaners in states like Mississippi, Virginia and Wyoming
give the Californian an edge, but it now appears that he still won't have enough
to overcome the President's lead. That's why most forecasters are picking Ford.
However there's this to consider: Some Ford support is wavering. In states
like New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania there is hidden backing for Reagan.
This means if he charges in the stretch and Ford trips over platform issues --
such as detente or the wheat "giveaway" Reagan has a chance to turn it around.
But we still think Ford will win it, then pick Reagan as his running mate.
is
FORD
Sorry for a sour note about the Bicentennial, but best you be forewarned.
GERALD
It has
national birthday
LIBRARY
Labor Has High Hopes In '76
By LEE BANDY
have been vetoed by the Presi- with their pro-labor package.
come the centerpiece of the
Washington Bureau
dent and subsequently sus- And by then. it will be virtual-
Democratic Presidential plat
tained by Congress. which was ly too late for any one person
form.
WASHINGTON Big labor
unable to obtain the necessarv or group to stop them with a
CHA NNOCK
June 21, 1976
MEMORANDUM TO ROGERS MORTON
FROM
: ROB QUARTEL
RALPH STANLEY Hanley
SUBJECT
: "ELECTABILITY"
In the last several days, Reagan has concentrated on the
argument that he is "more electable" than President Ford.
The attached wire story indicates that he has sent maps to
.. all delegates which most certainly support his argument
in a very dramatic-- if misleading--manner.
This is a problem of special concern given those actions,
and the seeming plausibility of his argument.
Reagan's primary argument is that he has run better than the
President in those areas of the country in which Car er will
be of the greatest threat to the Republican nominee.
That argument is superficially correct--Reagan has won more
primaries--numerically--than the President in the South.
The argument is blatently false upon analysis, as the following
independent polling data indicate:
1. President Ford runs stronger against Carter in every
region of the country in both the NY Times (May 28)
and Harris Survey (May 6).
2. President Ford runs ahead of Reagan in every area of
the country, except the West--despite the myth that
Reagan runs better in the South, Ford beats Reagan
44 - 39% (NY Times).
3. Ford runs even with Carter in the East, and beats
Carter in the West. Reagan loses against Carter in
every region (Harris Survey).
Several myths must be countered immediately:
MYTH: Reagan runs stronger than Ford against Carter's stronghold
in the South.
TRUTH: Ford runs ahead of Reagan in the South. Ford enjoys
a greater advantage against Carter in the South than
does Reagan according to the only independent polling
information available.
FORD is LIBRARY
Memorandum to Rogers Morton
Page 2
MYTH: Reagan will dominate the West against Carter; and
dominates the traditional Republican areas in the
Midwest.
TRUTH: Almost 75% of the voting age population in the
West lives in California, accounting for the bulk
--well over 60% of Reagan's total vote in the West.
Ford, in fact, runs a full 11% ahead of Carter in
the West, while Reagan runs 9% behind.
This is bolstered by the fact that Carter picks up
only 10% of the vote, versus 64% for other Democratic ic
candidates, in the Wester.
In the Midwest, Ford beats Reagan 2 to 1 (59% to 28%).
Ford's advantage here is particularly important, since
the Midwest is Carter's second strongest area.
MYTH: Reagan will pick up the Independent vote.
TRUTH: Reagan loses to Carter by 18% among Independents,
according to the NY Times survey.
Ford, on the other hand, runs even with Carter among
Independents-- and better among the College educated
and the business community (Reagan loses by 17% among
businessmen -traditionally strong Republican sector).
Finally, in the East, where Republicans will have to pick up
electoral votes from states like New York and Pennsylvania,
Ford draws even with Carter- but Reagan loses to Carter by
almost 2 to 1.
CONCLUSION:
Reagan enjoys no advantages in any area of the country against
Carter- and no advantages over Ford, except in his own state
of California.
Ford, on the other hand, does better than Reagan against Carter
in the South; has at least an even chance against Carter in
the critical East; and enjoys a strong advantage over Carter
in the West.
Ford is not only more electable than Reagan--he's more
electable against the one that counts--Jimmy Carter.
FORD is LIBRARY 078835
<07 DONALD LAMBRO
LOS ANGELES (UPI) IN HIS RACE-TO-THE-WIRE SPRINT AGAINST
PRESIDENT FORD, RONALD REAGAN IS INCREASINGLY HAMMERING AWAY AT THE
ONE ISSUE HE THINKS MAY DECIDE WHO WINS AT KANSAS CITY
ELECTABILITY.
DESPITE EARLY RELUCTANCE TO TAG FORD RS A LOSER, REAGAN IS NOV
STRIKING HARDEST ON THE CLAIM THAT HE HAS A BETTER CHANCE THAN THE
PRESIDENT OF DEFEATING JIMMY CARTER IN NOVEMBER.
UNCOMMITTED DELEGATES AND THOSE YET TO BE CHOSEN ARE PROVIDED BY
REAGAN'S FORCES WITH MAPS SHOWING THE CALIFORNIAN HAS WON Я BROADER
BASE OF SUPPORT IN MORE REGIONS OF THE COUNTRY THAN FORD.
MOREOVER, BEFORE CLOSED DOOR CRUCUS MEETINGS WITH IOWA DELEGATES
AT THEIR WEEKEND CONVENTION, REAGAN BLUNTLY DECLARED THAT ONLY A
NON-WASHINGTON CANDIDATE SUCH AS HIMSELF COULD WAGE A WINNING
OFFENSIVE AGAINST CARTER'S ANTI-WASHINGTON CAMPAIGN.
"ONLY AN ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT CANDIDATE IS GOING TO HAVE i CHANCE
AGRINST JIMMY CARTER," ONE GOP DELEGATE QUOTED REAGAN AS SWING.
"FORD HAS BEEN PART OF THAT ESTABLISHMENT MOST OF HIS ENTIRE ADU IT T
LIFE.
IN APPEARANCES IN IOWA AND WASHINGTON STATE SATURDAY WHERE HE
WON 48 DELEGATES TO FORD'S 26 -- REAGAN CLOSED HIS STANDARD CAMPAIGN
SPEECH WITH A FERVENT PITCH ON "THE ISSUE OF ELECTABILITY IN
NOVEMBER.
REAGAN STRATEGISTS SAY THAT IN THE CLOSING DAYS OF THE BATTLE FOR
DELEGATES, THE ISSUE WILL BE PRESSED EVEN HARDER.
UPI 06-21 08:59 RED
GERALD
LIBRAR
NEW YORK TIMES/CBS POLL, MAY 28, 1976
Regional Distribution of Support
(in percent)
for Nomination Among Republicans
(Based on New York Times/CBS News national poll)
Carter- Brown (Humphrey
SOUTH
Other Democratic dates were not in ted in
their national support was too small to allow "gn licant 10 nonal breakdowns
FORD is LIBRAR
STANDINGS: FORD - REAGAN V. CARTER
Harris, May 6, 1976
FORD
REAGAN
CARTER
Total:
34%
53%
43%
47%
East:
44
44
28
54*
*Reagan's weakness in the East;
not Carter's strength
West:
50
39
40
49
Mid-West:
41
48
38
52
South:
36
/
55
32
56
College educated:
48
43
31
57
Business execs:
51
42
34
51
Independents:
45
45
34
52
Q: "Suppose for President next November, it were between Gerald Ford
for the Republicans and Jimmy Carter for the Democrats. If you
had to make up your mind right now, would you vote for Ford the
the Republican or for Carter the Democrat?"
same question asked re: Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter
FORD is LIBRARY
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
June 25, 1976
LIBRARY GERALD $ FORD
Dick:
This is a first cut at the electability
memo you requested. What else would
you like added? Whom should I give it
to for lay out and distribution?
Foster
Good start - me comments
also - script + arguments can be
varid according to - 1.) target group.
north-south; liberal. commentive ; and
2.) who publishus - keep in mind we
may want others to say some things.
PRESIDENT FORD -- THE WINNER IN NOVEMBER
I.
Gerald Ford has a strong record as President.
LIBRARY GERALD B. FORD
A. Under his leadership, inflation has been cut in half and there
are 3.6 million new jobs.
B. President Ford is the first incumbent since Eisenhower who
can campaign with the nation at peace.
C. President Ford has restored trust and confidence in government.
II.
President Ford runs ahead of Reagan against Carter in every national
not
poll.
Harris they
who Ford
vs. Rugen. Carter
Carter
Undecided
Reagan
Carter
Undecided
Harris 6/23
40
53
7
35
58
7
Gallup 6/21
39
53
8
35
58
7
NBC 6/15
37
52
11
35
58
7
AND IN STATE POLLS
California
40
41
19
38
46
16
5/31 - 6/5
Minnesota
46
43
11
39
46
15
Iowa
47
46
7
41
50
9
Missouri
38
44
18
31
49
18
Michigan
36
35
29
21
48
31
we also have results from N.Dah, Minouri, - who Mo. results which
show Bond & Dan fath running 7-9 pts. better w/ ?. Than w/ RR,
2
III. President Ford has a national appeal.
A. He is the national choice of Republicans.
Ford
Reagan
Undecided
Harris
60
30
10
NBC
60
30
10
Gallup
51
41
8
B. He is the national choice of Independents.
Ford
Reagan
Undecided
Gallup
52
33
13
C. President Ford is the only candidate in either Party to
win primaries in all sections of the country.
NH 4
:
NY 41
KY 9
VT 3
PA 27
TN 10
MS 14
D.C. 3
OR 6
FL 17
WV 6
RI 4
IL 26
MD 10
NJ 17
WI 11
MI 21
OH 25
ELECTORAL VOTE TOTAL
254
Reagan has won only one primary outside the Sunbelt. The 144
he
win Neb. total electoral vote strength of his primary victories is far
+
& Indiana.
short of the 270 needed to win.
FORD is LIBRARY 03
3
A REAGAN CANDIDACY WOULD MEAN A REPEAT OF 1964
A Reagan candidacy in 1976 will result in a loss of landslide proportions.
National polls taken in recent months show Governor Reagan from 18 to
23 points behind Carter. The two most recent polls show Reagan further
behind Carter than ever before, indicating that Reagan is losing ground to
Carter. More importantly, Reagan is nearly as far behind Carter now as
Stevenson was behind Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956 -- and Stevenson lost
both elections. Reagan trails Carter by more than Humphrey ever trailed
Nixon in 1968, when Humphrey lost.
This evidence shows that Reagan cannot close the gap and would lose to
Carter. The pattern of the inevitable Reagan defeat indicates that
Republicans nationally would fare as badly as they did when Reagan was
Governor of California. When Reagan became Governor in 1967,
Republicans in California had:
BEFORE
While Reagan Governor
After Reagan Governor
2 U.S. Senators
None
17 of 38 Congressmen
15 of 43 Congressmen
19 of 40 State Senators
15 of 40 State Senators
38 of 80 State Assemblymen
25 of 80 State Assemblymen
5 of 6 Statewide Offices
1 of 6 Statewide Offices
Said independent pollster Louis Harris:
The pattern now being run by Reagan against Carter
is highly reminiscent of that of Arizona Senator Barry
Goldwater in the 1964 Presidential election, when he
lost by a landslide to Lyndon Johnson. This pattern
thus indicates that in 1976 the electorate is highly
unlikely to vote for an all-out conservative for President.
(Harris, 5/6/76)
This estimate was confirmed by widely respected conservative political
analyst Kevin Phillips. In the May 28 edition of Phillips' newsletter,
American Political Report, Phillips predicted that Reagan would carry
only a handful of smaller states with very few electoral votes.
There are three major reasons why a Reagan loss in 1976 would be a
loss of landslide proportions:
FORD is LIBRARY 07V839
4
1. Governor Reagan's strength is in the wrong places;
2. Governor Reagan is far too conservative to attract the
large numbers of middle-of-the-road voters any Republican
must get in order to win;
3. The hidden "Wallace" or "new conservative" voters which
are supposed to bring Reagan victory are not going to vote
for Reagan.
Governor Reagan's strengths will do him little good and his weaknesses
mean a certain Democratic victory in November.
Governor Reagan claims enough strength in the South and West and in
traditionally Republican areas to bring him victory in November. There's
just one problem with Reagan's claims -- they're not true. Look at the
facts:
The West -- A recent Field poll in California, the center of Reagan's
Western "strength, " showed Reagan losing to Carter by a wide margin.
Ford
Carter
Reagan
Carter
40
41
38
46
A Gallup poll released on June 27 showed that Ford runs better than
Reagan against Carter throughout the entire West:
Ford
Carter
Reagan
Carter
44
46
42
47
Reagan has no advantage in the South. Carter has a 30 point lead over
both candidates as measured by Gallup, Harris, CBS and NBC.
So Governor Reagan is strong only where Carter is stronger -- the
difference between Ford and Reagan is that Ford is strong in areas
where Carter is weakest -- and these are areas where political
analysts are agreed that the polls and the primaries both show that
Reagan has no chance of winning.
Reagan is too conservative to win the votes of essential moderates.
As the attached chart shows, Governor Reagan is placed by the voters
at the extreme right.
FORD i LIBRARI GIVENO
5
HHH
JFK
AS (Stevenson) FORD
GOLDWATER
GM (McGovern)
CARTER
IKE
WALLACE
LBJ
RN
REAGAN
15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
LIBERAL
CONSERVATIVE
GERALD
?
FORD LIBRARY
6
Past Presidential elections have repeatedly shown that a candidate
as extreme as Governor Reagan (or someone equally far off-center
to the left) will go down in defeat by a wide margin (see attached
table). The reason for this is that the middle-of-the-road voter is
the center of gravity in American politics. Any candidate who
doesn't get a large share of moderate votes loses badly. Reagan's
position on the ideological spectrum means that he won't get those
votes, and his support in the primary states shows that he won't
get those votes.
Another 1964 would cost the GOP dearly. In 1964, the GOP lost:
6% of its United States Senate seats (2)
20% of its United States House seats (38)
602 seats in state legislatures
A repeat of that performance in 1976, combined with GOP retirements
already announced, could reduce GOP House membership to just
over 100 members -- the lowest sumber since 1934. This would
give the Democrats complete and unchallengeable control over the
Federal government for the first time since the New Deal.
At the state level, substantial GOP losses in 1976 could mean that
the GOP would end the year with control of only eight of the state-
houses across the country.
It should not be forgotten that in the 1964 debacle it was conservative
Republican candidates who suffered most.
Reagan is not going to get the "Wallace" vote which is an essential
element of his "New Majority."
Reagan has, as everyone knows, been the recipient of the largest
share of crossover votes cast in the primaries by former Wallace
voters. But most of the former Wallace voters this year either
did not vote or voted Democratic, usually for Jimmy Carter. Kevin
Phillips estimates that the Wallace vote split 4 to 1 for Carter over
Reagan in the primaries (Phillips, 5/28). There is no evidence
from the primaries which suggests that Reagan will get a large enough
share of this vote to offset the losses that his candidacy will produce
in other numerically more important parts of the voting population.
In fact, the Democratic party has nominated a candidate that George
Wallace feels comfortable with and has endorsed.
FORD is LIBRARY GERALD
[June 25, 1976]
PRESIDENT FORD - -- THE WINNER IN NOVEMBER
I.
Gerald Ford has a strong record as President.
A. Under his leadership, inflation has been cut in half and there
are 3.6 million new jobs.
B. President Ford is the first incumbent since Eisenhower who
can campaign with the nation at peace.
C. President Ford has restored trust and confidence in government.
II.
President Ford runs ahead of Reagan against Carter in every national
poll.
Ford
Carter
Undecided
Reagan
Carter
Undecided
Harris 6/23
40
53
7
35
58
7
Gallup 6/21
39
53
8
35
58
7
NBC 6/15
37
52
11
35
58
7
AND IN STATE POLLS
California
40
41
19
38
46
16
5/31 - 6/5
Minnesota
46
43
11
39
46
15
Iowa
47
46
7
41
50
9
Missouri
38
44
18
31
49
18
Michigan
FORD & LIBRARY 9ERALD
2
III. President Ford has a national appeal.
A. He is the national choice of Republicans.
Ford
Reagan
Undecided
Harris
60
30
10
NBC
60
30
10
Gallup
51
41
8
B. He is the national choice of Independents.
Ford
Reagan
Undecided
Gallup
52
33
13
C. President Ford is the only candidate in either Party to
win primaries in all sections of the country.
NH 4
NY 41
KY 9
VT 3
PA 27
TN 10
MS 14
D.C. 3
OR 6
FL 17
WV 6
RI 4
IL 26
MD 10
NJ 17
WI 11
MI 21
OH 25
ELECTORAL VOTE TOTAL
254
Reagan has won only one primary outside the Sunbelt. The 144
total electoral vote strength of his primary victories is far
short of the 270 needed to win.
FORD is LIBRARY BERALD
3
A REAGAN CANDIDACY WOULD MEAN A REPEAT OF 1964
A Reagan candidacy in 1976 will result in a loss of landslide proportions.
National polls taken in recent months show Governor Reagan from 18 to
23 points behind Carter. The two most recent polls show Reagan further
behind Carter than ever before, indicating that Reagan is losing ground to
Carter. More importantly, Reagan is nearly as far behind Carter now as
Stevenson was behind Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956 -- and Stevenson lost
both elections. Reagan trails Carter by more than Humphrey ever trailed
Nixon in 1968, when Humphrey lost.
This evidence shows that Reagan cannot close the gap and would lose to
Carter. The pattern of the inevitable Reagan defeat indicates that
Republicans nationally would fare as badly as they did when Reagan was
Governor of California. When Reagan became Governor in 1967,
Republicans in California had:
Before Reagan Governor
After Reagan Governor
2 U.S. Senators
None
17 of 38 Congressmen
15 of 43 Congressmen
19 of 40 State Senators
15 of 40 State Senators
38 of 80 State Assemblymen
25 of 80 State Assemblymen
5 of 6 Statewide Offices
1 of 6 Statewide Offices
Said independent pollster Louis Harris:
The pattern now being run by Reagan against Carter
is highly reminiscent of that of Arizona Senator Barry
Goldwater in the 1964 Presidential election, when he
lost by a landslide to Lyndon Johnson. This pattern
thus indicates that in 1976 the electorate is highly
unlikely to vote for an all-out conservative for President.
(Harris, 5/6/76)
This estimate was confirmed by widely respected conservative political
analyst Kevin Phillips. In the May 28 edition of Phillips' newsletter,
American Political Report, Phillips predicted that Reagan would carry
only a handful of smaller states with very few electoral votes.
There are three major reasons why a Reagan loss in 1976 would be a
loss of landslide proportions:
FORD is LIBRARY 07V839
4
1.
Governor Reagan's strength is in the wrong places;
2. Governor Reagan is far too conservative to attract the
large numbers of middle-of-the-road voters any Republican
must get in order to win;
3. The hidden "Wallace" or "new conservative" voters which
are supposed to bring Reagan victory are not going to vote
for Reagan.
Governor Reagan's strengths will do him little good and his weaknesses
mean a certain Democratic victory in November.
Governor Reagan claims enough strength in the South and West and in
traditionally Republican areas to bring him victory in November. There's
just one problem with Reagan's claims -- they're not true. Look at the
facts:
The West -- A recent Field poll in California, the center of Reagan's
Western "strength, " showed Reagan losing to Carter by a wide margin.
Ford
Carter
Reagan
Carter
40
41
38
46
A Gallup poll released on June 27 showed that Ford runs better than
Reagan against Carter throughout the entire West:
Ford
Carter
Reagan
Carter
44
46
42
47
Reagan has no advantage in the South. Carter has a 30 point lead over
both candidates as measured by Gallup, Harris, CBS and NBC.
So Governor Reagan is strong only where Carter is stronger -- the
difference between Ford and Reagan is that Ford is strong in areas
where Carter is weakest -- and these are areas where political
analysts are agreed that the polls and the primaries both show that
Reagan has no chance of winning.
Reagan is too conservative to win the votes of essential moderates.
As the attached chart shows, Governor Reagan is placed by the voters
at the extreme right.
FORD is LIBRARY BERALD
5
HHH
JFK
AS (Stevenson) FORD
GOLDWATER
GM (McGovern)
CARTER
IKE
WALLACE
LBJ
RN
REAGAN
15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
LIBERAL
CONSERVATIVE
LIBRARY GERALD ? FORD
6
Past Presidential elections have repeatedly shown that a candidate
as extreme as Governor Reagan (or someone equally far off-center
to the left) will go down in defeat by a wide margin (see attached
table). The reason for this is that the middle-of-the-road voter is
the center of gravity in American politics. Any candidate who
doesn't get a large share of moderate votes loses badly. Reagan's
position on the ideological spectrum means that he won't get those
votes, and his support in the primary states shows that he won't
get those votes.
Another 1964 would cost the GOP dearly. In 1964, the GOP lost:
6% of its United States Senate seats (2)
20% of its United States House seats (38)
602 seats in state legislatures
A repeat of that performance in 1976, combined with GOP retirements
already announced, could reduce GOP House membership to just
over 100 members -- the lowest sumber since 1934. This would
give the Democrats complete and unchallengeable control over the
Federal government for the first time since the New Deal.
At the state level, substantial GOP losses in 1976 could mean that
the GOP would end the year with control of only eight of the state-
houses across the country.
It should not be forgotten that in the 1964 debacle it was conservative
Republican candidates who suffered most.
Reagan is not going to get the "Wallace" vote which is an essential
element of his "New Majority."
Reagan has, as everyone knows, been the recipient of the largest
share of crossover votes cast in the primaries by former Wallace
voters. But most of the former Wallace voters this year either
did not vote or voted Democratic, usually for Jimmy Carter. Kevin
Phillips estimates that the Wallace vote split 4 to 1 for Carter, over
Reagan in the primaries (Phillips, 5/28). There is no evidence
from the primaries which suggests that Reagan will get a large enough
share of this vote to offset the losses that his candidacy will produce
in other numerically more important parts of the voting population.
In fact, the Democratic party has nominated a candidate that George
Wallace feels comfortable with and has endorsed.
FORD
is
GERALD
LIBRARY
Document source description
This file contains working materials and drafts of a memorandum by Foster Chanock comparing the chances of President Ford or Ronald Reagan to defeat Jimmy Carter in the general election.
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"ocrText": "The original documents are located in Box 1, folder \"Ford Electability Memorandum\" of\nthe Foster Chanock Files at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library.\nCopyright Notice\nThe copyright law of the United States (Title 17, United States Code) governs the making of\nphotocopies or other reproductions of copyrighted material. Gerald R. Ford donated to the United\nStates of America his copyrights in all of his unpublished writings in National Archives collections.\nWorks prepared by U.S. Government employees as part of their official duties are in the public\ndomain. The copyrights to materials written by other individuals or organizations are presumed to\nremain with them. If you think any of the information displayed in the PDF is subject to a valid\ncopyright claim, please contact the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library.\nSome items in this folder were not digitized because it contains copyrighted\nmaterials. Please contact the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library for access to\nthese materials.\n[June 1976?]\nNYT /CBS New Hampshine NYT 2/25/76\nNYT\n1. Issues - thosenwhe took conservative positions on\nGOP smokers\n2/26\nthe issues (defente pollution /enerzy frade off,\nsecurity invertment, help for minorities) went\nsocial spending Coderal/local social\n40-60 to Reagan the GOP moderate\n2. Times Andysis - 2/25/76\nliberal vote went 5-4 for the president.\n\"Most of the conservative Republicans a NYT/\nCBS poll showed of 1235 veters across He state\nshowed, chose Ronall Roagan, former Govemor\nPresident Ford, with the moderates divided\nof Celifornia, and most of the liberals close\n(43 conserv Reagan 43 librab Ford meds divided for\nFord). Reagan streng H. outside consensation\nwas with lower status veters. Reagen Nan better\nin small town + Manchester area.\nLIONAN\nNYT Mass 3/4/76\nBut the challengers [Reager] discription in\nand did not even set the hand-core Republican\nshowing - he was beaten by about 2-1\nbase in Massachweetts there, was one additional\nbit of gloom for the Californian in the data\nfrom the Times/CBS poll. Mr. Ford nan\npowerfully here among older voters, a highly\nalsetorate in Flerida\nsubject element of the Republican\nMass Dems split - foreign minorites policy\njobstee\nsee Jenv\npollution\nbig ant buy. power\n6090\nL\n49000\n6020\nM\n147 ...0\n588 64680 Lt in = 82\" 39129\n48.19\na\n124 oor\n229320 M + 17 = 246 137000\nC 241080/417 = =258\nNYT less Flavida 3/4/76\nFond news first among tiberah conservation +\nDemocrat Ren strongly among older\npeople, Reagan got latin vote\n1. Reagn Ford split defent antis -\nFord won of pro (60-40)\n2. Maj saw economic upswerg 2-1 Ford\n\"\ndown 21 Regan\nIllinois NYT/CBS 3/17/76\nsales + detente\nFord gets may. of both sides of goin\n809. of the issue 4im 10 who saw integrity\nas creial chase Ford\n75% of 5'm to who saw ccon, improving\nWisconsin 21% GOP=Wallace (Dam primary)\nRep. puriory vaters\nModerate Liberal > 1/4 Ford\nReasan get\n2/3 of Dem\nConse Rvative Apg Began\ncrossbrer to\n13112\nGot vote\nReagan latter he; the collant lower che, (total 1190 of vot)\nfood better i young + old\nNYT Carter efter Pa Carly/HHH\nGoio Jack HHH\n5090 Udabl= =\nProtestants - Cath / Jens\n4020 Carton =\nYounger older\nsplit Heavy union\nsoe.sexv trade no J.S. trade\nsmaller sant lyer gant.\nSNaH foll couly beb 1stweek\nNett poll 2nd week April\nMay 5/L\nNYT 2/13/1615500\nJob ste 70 Yes Alrition\n26 No\nC7 Yes\n4 OK\n26 No\nDefente No 43 to\n7 OK\nYes Kzg 33\nCrt Defense\nDK 17\nYes 37\nNo 52\nDK 11\nPoll/every trade 45 Y\n43 N\n11 DK\nBusing\nYes 20\nNo 71\nDK 7\nFed / local\nlocal 63\nFed 24\nGERALD FORD\nDK 13\nof total\nNYT May 6 NYT/CBS\nGOP\nvotes\n1/3 of Wallace 172 voters voted GOP -\n311 Reagan\nmoderates 50 conserv 50\n3:2 Ford\n3:2 Reagan\nKissinga Bad 70/30 Reagon\nsame/\nGood 70 30 Ford\neconomy same on worse 2:1 Reagan\nin splet race! welfare,\n40% better 2:1 ford\nNYT\n4/21/76\nCarter voters more likely RMN\nMore tikely to desert if Cater obesat\nget -\neconomic issues\n4090 too much\nfor. fort sing\nhelp to\nCarter : winer foutsider\nNichigan defection\n1/2 hell Wallace 1/2 voters\nconserv dams\nwent those cop-hastly who stayed Reagan Dem went\nFORD of 079339 LIBRARY\nmostly for Carter\nblad\n{- - Ford defections 1/3 world go Carter in\nConter 1 Reason\nWalace - Reagan defectors realy 402 - would so\nTG Carter in Ford Carter\n[June 1976]\nElectability\nHolding me Center\nCarter as Foil\n1) states\nElectoral\n2) Polls\n3) Elements of Winning Constituency\n4) key Issues\nGvc-\n5) Personality\nLIBRERA GERALD : FORD\nArguements as winner\n1) Regional 1 NO\n2) states wiR Crossorers ?-NO\n3) Popular Vates - NO\n4) Polls - Yes Indeps + Derus\n5) 3 tates needed to win general - YES\nBorder states + California\nReagan strength wrong places and/or not enough\nComptoring the Center - CAV\nTurnout low\nWallace looters\ndetect Regan\nRegan Record of Party in Calif\nPeople on ticket better off with Ford\nYoung strength\nSig section of independents\nPealing of Democ. Coalitican\n68 - Wallace + Humphrey vs RN.\nLIBRARY GERALD FORD\nRaising specter of '64\nknocking off incumbert President - lame duck\nFord as Winner\nI. Use of Argument\nA Public\nNews\nB Advocates\nPublic\nConventions\nC PFC\nD Party Pros t Delegates Elected Officials\nIX. Types of Aguements\nA Empirical Endence\nPolling - Public National/State by state\nUoting - Primaries + Past\nB conventional Wisdom\nC Electoral strategy\nD sophistication\nStrongths - Weaknesses\nIII. Carter - ABC Democrat\nFord as winner\nReagan as loser\nGERALD B. FORD\n[Vune 1976?\nFORD/REAGAN IMPACT ON NORMAL DEMOCRATIC CONSTITUENCY:\nA COMPARISON\nIn the race against Carter, the GOP nominee will probably\nbe significantly less able to draw the votes of former sup-\nporters of Wallace away from the Democrats. Thus it becomes\nof critical importance that the GOP candidate attract votes\nfrom other elements of the normal Democratic constituency.\nThe President can do this, but with some exceptions, Reagan\ncannot. Following is an element by element comparison of the\npredicted Ford/Reagan performance among normally Democratic\nconstituences.\nFORD is LIBRARY BERALD\nI. JEWISH VOTERS\nAmerican Jews represent only 3-4% of the American\npopulation, but two factors combine to give them an\nimportance far out of proportion to their numbers. The\nfirst is that they are concentrated in a relatively small\nnumber of very large states -- NY, Illinois, California,\nPennsylvania and Florida (156 electoral votes) where a\nshift in their voting patterns can be decisive. The second\nis that they have the highest percentage of voters of any\nidentifiable group in the population. They votes solidly\nDemocratic until 1972. While Jews apparently dislike Carter,\nthis clearly does not mean that any GOP candidate will\nreceive their support. Rather, if Carter takes positions\non certain issues acceptable to the Jewish community, the\ncritical question will be how much of their vote the GOP\ncandidate will draw away. Ford will clearly draw more of\ntheir vote than will Reagan. The reasons for this are:\n1. Jewish economic liberals are less likely to be\nalienated by (indeed many of them support) the President's\neconomic reform proposals such as deregulation, antitrust\nreform, and so on than they will be by Reagan's insistence\nthat government leave the marketplace altogether.\n2. Jewish social liberals are less likely to be\nalienated by the President's plan to minimize busing than\nby Reagan's proposal for a total ban on busing.\n3. Administration foreign policy toward Israel in\nthe U.N. has been supported by the Jewish community, so\nReagan would do no better on this front.\n4. A Reagan candidacy will clearly be less acceptable\nto Jews from a religious point of view. Reagan takes a\nreligious tac similar to Carter's, an approach which has\nclearly alienated Jewish voters. Reagan's attack on the\nschool prayer decisions is also likely to cause severe losses\namong Jewish voters.\nCONCLUSION: A Carter candidacy will probably mean a sub-\nstantial vote for the GOP nominee if the nominee is President\nFord.\n:\nFORD\nGERALD\nLIBRARY\nII. BLACK VOTERS\nBlacks contribute from 15-20% of total Democratic\nsupport. While they have apparently Voted fairly heavily\nfor Carter in the early Democratic primaries, poll data\nshows that their loyalty to him, a compared to other\nDemocratic candidates is not that strong. This suggests\nthat their 90+% loyalty rate to Johnson and Humphrey may\nreturn to earlier 70% levels if Carter is the candidate.\nThis will be far more likely to happen, however, if Ford\nrather than Reagan is the GOP candidate. The reasons for\nthis are as follows:\n1. African Policy -- Even the most superficial\nanalysis of the positions taken by the Ford Administration\nas cmpared to those taken by Reagan suggests that Reagan\nhas very probably alienated many black voters, while the\nFord policies are seen as at least steps in the right\ndirection.\n2. Busing -- Again, Reagan's views are almost calcu-\nlated to alienate many blacks.\n3. Economic Policy -- President Ford will be running\non a strong record of economic recovery, while Reagan has\nno record in this area and his views on the economic role\nof government are, as poll data clearly indicates, anathema\nto blacks.\naND\n4. Ford has appointed a number of prominent visible\nblacks.\nCONCLUSION: In general, a Ford candidacy seems likely to\nproduce at least some black support, while a Reagan candi-\ndacy would mean this vote would go completely to the\nDemocrats.\nFORD is GERALD LIBRARY\nIII. CATHOLICS\nCatholics and Jews taken together have consistently\ncontributed approximately 40% of n Democratic vote.\nGovernor Reagan and the President would probably do about\nequally well among Catholic voters who vote Republican if\nCarter is the Democratic candidate. Catholic voters tend\nto be economic liberals, but social conservatives. Thus\nReagan's slight edge among Catholic voters based on his\nsocial issue stands (abortion, busing, to a lesser extent\nschool prayer) would probably be offset by losses of\npotential GOP Catholic voters as a result of his economic\nviews. The probability that this is the case is\nstrengthened by the fact that the President has far\nstronger support among younger voters, of whom many are\nCatholic.\nCONCLUSION: The social issue stands of significance to\nthese voters would probably be abortion, busing and to a\nsignificantly less extent, school prayer.\nFORD & LIBRARY 9ERVLD\nIV. UNION MEMBERS\nUnion members generally contribute a high proportion\nof Democratic support. Union members have rarely been\noverwhelming loyal to the Democrats, and a Carter candi-\ndacy seems likely to leave open the possibility that the\nGOP candidate will receive a higher than average number\nof union member votes. While neither candidate has a\nrecord which suggests that it would naturally draw large\nnumbers of union votes, the President's position with\nunion members would probably be stronger than that of\nReagan. The President has a strong proven track record\non economic issues and has been considerably less critical\nof labor in general than has Reagan. The common situs\nveto would\ncirtainly\nbe a neutral factor\nbetween Ford\nand Reagan because Reagan probably wouldn't have signed\nit either.\nFORD is QERVID LIBRARY\n6\nGERATO sto FORD\nKey Issue Differences between President Ford\nand Governor Reagen and their impact on\nthe Electorate\nBoth President Ford and Governor Reagen are\nconservative men, a fact which the GOP\nprimaries hold this year have tended to\nobscure. Bath Men agree that the\nUnited States need to maintain a strong\nnational defence, posture, and that the Federal\ngovernment in thould n otherwise play, a much\nsmaller role in our national life then it\nthe candidates have taken tomouhat different\nNow does. But on a number of issues\npositions, them making probablefhat they will\nIn general, Governor Reagan in shightly more likely\ngeneral election. the trouble is that\nappeal to different confitencies in the\nappeal otherwise\nto have appeal to the deep Jonth than\nis the President and comiderably less\nlikely to appeal to Northern voters, if the\nIt is also\nGOP primaries are any indication of the likely\nclean that\npattern of\nvoting in the Fall.\nThis\nGovernor Reagon has\nmeans that unless & Reagan can defect\nalip taken\nCarter in his home territory, he is likely\nto lose very badly.\nprovidentl certain\nthe in this\nForeign Policy - TROOPS Based V. an his NEGOTIATION recent public statemputs,\nReagan is comidinably More willing to commit\nthe United States to foreign land wars\nthan is the President. while this position\ncharly has same appeal in the Santh and\nto\n3\nper haps in the West, it seem unlikely to\n7\npostune are likely to blunt & Reason, attacks\nand his consistent support far a strom befere\ntreased Carter's military backs round\nthe effectives of\nOn the\nSouth. with clearly cost Reigan votes\ncost Carter significant numbers of votes in the\nofher hand,\neverywhere else in the country. President\nFond's attempts to regotiate much settlements of various\nposition will Reagons\nunlernational disputes seem ^ more likely to\nhave broad popular appeal. una this fact inticat\nconclusion is n by Jackson's loss to\nCarter in Florida and the collapee of this Jackson's\ncampaign nationally. Recent Galhip po u data\nwhom Kissinger, has\n(WP, June 6) indicates that secret any\n/\nIsrael - Reagans attacks on the Ford policy\npaga\nof allached,\ntoward Israel were insigned, and are unlikely,\nfor reasons discussed check to draw\nis a\nasset to\nhim. significant numbers of Jewish voters to\nthe menistration\nof Domestic Policy\nwhich the Ford policy might\nAdminis iv area.\nnuall gurner for the Got.\nBusing - Discossed elsewhere are The impac to of\nR the Admin,\nsubstantial can paint to\nEarn Pl. Delegulation R/form Laissez fa ive\nthe Reagan busing position on various Democratic\nprogresh in\nsupport groups has been dis cussed elsewhere.\nthis area\nAs was. shown there, the Reagan busing\nching the\nposition is likely to mean the loss\npatential/votas from various Democrabic\nFanthermore, the President\nwill\ngroups. On the\nhas the\nmore successful than the Presidents position in\nthat the Reasan position\nother hand, there is little prifence\nalvanting of\nhis experience\nand of has\nfrom Carter. Carters anti- fored busing position\ndrawing the notes of former Wallace supporters away\nM\nposition incumbent. as\nseem likely to satily those who would\notherwise be miclined to support him\n8\nEconomic Policy\nGeneral - The major diff erence between the\n,while\nPresident and Reagan on matters of economic\npolicy seems to have been that the b President\nleagan not\ndoes\nhas recognized the fact that to effect rtubs tantial\nof government will By bequire some time,\nchange in economic policy the economic role\nmembers\nand may not be as thorough-gaing as\nthat reform\nthey\nof\nsome laissez- faire school of might like,\nthought\n1. the President signed a budget which contained\nprovision for some deficit spending because\nhe felt that it was a worhable comptomise\neffect Reagan apposed this budget\nand if would have generally beneficial\nand because\nthe signing the\nbecause if contained a deficit, the President\nappear do have decided conectly because the\ntook steam much ant of\n5.\neconomic picture has steadily improved,\n2.\nthe Dem.\nindustry. Reagon proposed the sale of the TVA to private\ntach on\nThis proposal ahemated\na\nAdmin policy. ec.\neven the conservative voters who would the pults in\notherwise favor Gavernar Reagan, as the TN/KY primary\n3.\nReagan proposed that the social security showed.\ntrust fund be invested in exemity securities\nof private companies This would the elec for tion 11\nR.FORD LIBRARY\nmajor enterrise private investor in private\nhave turned the government into a\nthis was clearly an underviable\nresult, and them comex vatines propert\nappoaed this proposal. At the same time\nsecurity payments to ease the burdens of infleting\nthe President has proposed increases in social\non SR. citying who which represent a powerful votime block in\n9\n4. Ford proposal for deregulation and strengthed\nantitant enforcement have been extremely\nwell received. annroached the fact that the\nbasis\n+\nPresident has heady the proper problem\npropost\naller n a cafe by case proposing study across the rather\nonly\nthe\nthan simply because he\ncareful study\ngiven maximum play, has had 2 important\nthe free market system should always be\noffects: first, it makes Adminis that in\namong groups who natimally strongly appose\nderegulation proposals for more credible\nsuch actions and secondly it makes\nAdministration apposition to certain\nDemocrabic proposals much more believer\nand Mre likely to succeed.\nthis is\nan area where, f potential non Republican\nvoters are not to be alienated, chame\nmust be, caufully shaped. The Ford,\nmust be juadual and public consensers\nP.U data\nAdministration has shown if can olevelop\nthis consensus. It teems clears that\nSuggeots\nto drive those potential voters Ewar.\nReagan's positions would for for more likely\nto take just ane concrete example, Illingis\nt Unsionsin Jumary voting results tuggest subs trutial\npoomises to has largely eliminate government invo wement\nsupport for admin. FARM policy which\nin the agricultural techn of the economy.\n(over)\nGERMAN TORD LIBRANT\nConclusion General - In general, Reagan economic policy\nthe support of large wombers of voters\nseem for more likely to cost the party\nwho an social conservatives but economic moderates\nor liberal By. The Ford policies, on the\nother hand, male if likely that this tantial\nchange will in fact occur., At and the sametime n Ford the\nto anattack which many economic 3 mornates will\neconomic record js unlikely to be vylnerable\nagree with.\n10\nBureaucracy - Governor Reagan attachs on the\nfederal government will be deprived of a\nis the Democrabic candidat. While Razon\nlarge pat of their effectiveness if Carter\non this issue, Carter can point to his\ncan point to his mixed record in California\nin Georgia, and he has clearly been able\nto run will with this issue. Nor\nwill the President le mulnerable to Carter\npoint to his record of nebses his consickul\nor this Seare. The President carp\nappointion to the creation of was if ven prozrams,\nand his plans to maly some of the agencies\npolicies dereg latin, anfi bring, and heremic-sharing\nsignificantly less intrusive they through his\n11\nw\nthe stylet Personalities of President Ford and Governor\nReajan and then impact an the fall Election-\nA Comparison\nSurvey data consistenth domonstrates that elgctions\nin which both candidates are teen as moderatos\nan the issues are decided at least in substantial,\npart an personality, while elections in which\neither are an both candidates are vaived as\nextremists are like to be based somewhat\nmore on issue votim. of the If\nCarter is the Democratic nominee, and if hoth\nGOP candidates are perceived as moderates by\nthe electorate, President Fand's personality\nwould compare murh more Lavorath with Carter's\nthan would that of Governor style Reagan Not\nonly would Governor Reagan parmality have\nwauld fend to rein orce Many negative steventypes\nnegative associations Lar Many noters, it\nof the GOP held by large numbers of\nAmerican voters.\n1. Style - Govemer Reagan is some what more articulate\nthan in the President as his ability to get\nHowever, are usually patibay\nenthosiastic responses from his audines shows\naudien,ces, and Reagans anticulateness has stoong\nnegative associations for voters other than Rengan\npartisons Reagon is often thought of as\noften cambined with the following\ntoo \"shick\" - and this perception is\nFORD 070839 LIBRARY\nassociation 1 indiffact or uncaring\nsuperficial, puchaps dishourst, a \"politician.\"\n12\nwhile they\nhave had the to\nit is important to note that these wating\neffect\nto ther\nregation stereotyn of the Republican party -\nassociations are very timilar to widely held\nthat the GOP is uncaring and in dishonert.\ndeal wealthin than the President He is\nFurthermore, Reagn is personally a good\ntherefore much more likely to be mind as\na friend of Big Buziness, less sny mpathefic\nto the needs of the poor and the middle\nclass (groups in which many of the Wallace\nvoters are exucentrated. Again, these\nassociations reinforce artain widely held,\nand very arganing concerning the\nRepublican party. Since (atter is alsol\npersonally onto wealth and Fond is much\nMore used to be able to capitaling on\nthis than is Reagan,\nmade statements\nor hanguing the drug of their compaigns.\n- Both Reagon and Carter have\nbeen susceptible to antbpeaks of anger. at\nmoments. the Indead,\nJackson this as q basis for\nhis attachs an Carlos in Pennsy Wania the\nPrident is widely perceived as more trained\nand judicious in his choice of words and actions.\nthis difference could prove to be of tremomlaus\nimportance in a make when personalities are a\nsignificant issue since this tyou of res train t\nappearsuato be an essential attinbute of a President\ntoth public\nin a meleor age. in the public mind.\nGERALD R. FORD\n13\nSincerely - Roft Ford and Reagan will project\nequally well on this dimension against Carter.\nDecisiveness - As President, Ford will obvious\nbe in a much better position to demonstrate\nhis decisiveness while the President will\nbe vulnerable to with regard attachs based fo, on shifts in Administration\npolicy, there is no reason to believe Reagon\nwill face better on this Score. Infeed, Karin\n<\nhad been severely damaged by his ebandonment\nPhillips recently noted that Reagans aedibility\nduring\nthe\nprimaries,\nof several positions than making him More\nvuluerable in the general election (Phillips,\nOpenness - the ) Democratic Party is perceived by\nvoters as much more open than the GOP to\nchange in all respects, President Ford\nis much more likely to be perceived as open\nthan is Reagan. Bett Ford will clearly be 9\nfremendous ascet to the Resident in this respect,\nReligionity - Ford against probably stronger on\ncartey\nthis dimension than Reagan he brings\nthis will be on abset for him with more\nless \"Immelical ferver to what he does.\nmoderate Pretestant (+ Catholic ?) denominations\nmembers. Any drawing power Reagan wight have\non this dimension space would per bably be\noffset by other Carter associations.\nDERALO FORD LIBRARY\n14\nGeneral Electric Turnout and its Effect on Ford/\nRoagan Candidacies: A Comparison\nsuggest that the election this year will be\nthe result of this years primames strongly\ncharacteryl by relatively low voter fusnout\nthe willance MAN the primaries so for is that\nthe substantial decrease in primary furnout on\nthe Demodrabic side, to the extent that is not\nsimply a soflection of an overall decline is\na woult of the fact that\nmany of Wallaces former voters have stayed\nat home.\nSince the Reagan constituency, if\ninclude large numbers of these voters, this suggests\nReason is to win the general election, most\nthat, when combined will other factors discussed\nbelow, a Reagen candidor would be wechen\nthan might be indicated by poll results tahen\nalone. In a Low turnant election:\nGroups whose HistoricpHigh ally, Relative Groups whose Historically\nTurninet Importance Gives them Exaggerated\ndow A Turnout Given them\nless importance\ntp,\nJews\nUnion members\nATS\nRepublicans\nBlacks\nCatholics\nSantherners\nLIBRARY SERALD $ 1020\n286\nYoung Veters\n$ 4 This table reinforces the impression that\nSince MANY\nWallace votes which Realgn must depend on make\nof Wallacessom\nheavily them the President will play & much\nare but\nless important vole in this election than\nthey union\nFrom Newbers.\nthey have previousty. On the other hand,\nthe President will do be the than Reagen\nfrom\nV\ntor FOR of st if tom your\nHand 11% O to Affrr prong\npromy the to from myll 10-10-1 Y arring\n1020 my my = to crosting from\nEmer\ntofoo impany poogh mont grown and www\n1 form 1°CC the Hy\nIff\nx At\nhue\nInformation\n19)\nfome\nfobrynome\nBlock?\nmill\nper\nparting fine from crottengy\nR\nprombe more regist\n,E19\nhi\nL29\nand In of few parsont spootrax:\nfrom milto F $98 roundf\nour\nOLS\nMin to forev ingryon mayo X maps\n16t you Compling 46 Purpase t most\ns)\nI's\nsurgings fairl of from refore 16: tranking\ntran It in to mosel\nits Naws f Mollarno famina for storrby\nyours to from of\nshing E f amay yours 2-\nof of to 16.7\ntoo Ergo to to irport 16 t 12 not\nH imgines X 90 your 16°F\nt6 prossnt M. In 3\nand 1000 r 1 soft\n16th to to In A\nNebra the X T st\nA\nof pay any if Nit N\n15\namong Junih voters and would mm a bant\neventy among Catholics Both there groups\nwill be even more significant than they\nusually are in the 1976 election.\nFORD is 018830 LIBRARY\nIf the split had been\nDemocratic, WHH would have won\nby inther or 16 votes. 27)\n1968 Election Results - Assuming 55-45 Wallace\nVote Split\n1968\nMargin\nWINNER if Winwer\nState WiNNeR Electoral Vote (1972)\nWallace 90\nSplitto\nif\nSplittoR\nWash HHH\n9\n2.1\n7.4\nHHH\nMN HHH\n10\n12.5\n4\nHHH\nHHH\nTexas HHH\n26\n1.2\n19.0\nHHH\nRMN\nW. VA. HMH\n6\n8.8\n9.6\nHHH\nHHH\nMD HHH\n10\n1.7\n14.5\nHHH\nRMN\nPeNN. HHH\n27\n3.6\n8.0\nHHH\nHHH\nNew York HHH\n41\n5.5\n5.3\nHHH\nHHH\nCONN HHH\n8\n5,2\n6.1\nHHH\nHHH\nD.C.\nHHH\n3\n63\n-\nHHH\nHHH\nHawaii HHH\n4\n22\n1.5\nHHH\nHHH\nRhad Isl.\nHH H\n4\n32.2\n4.1\nHHH\nHHH\nMaine\nHHH\n4\n12.2\n1.6\nHHH\nHHH\nMass,\nWHH\n14\n30.1\n3.7\nHHH\nHHH\n25.05\nArk\nGCW\n6\nN/A\n38.8\nHHH\nRMN\nLA.\nGQW\n10\nN/A\n48.3\nHHH\nRMN\nAliss.\nGCW\n7\nN/A\n63.5\nHHH\nHHH\nAla-\nGCW\n10\nN/A\n67.2\nHHH\nas-as\nRMN\nGA.\nGCW\n12\nN/A\n43.8\nHHH\nRMN\nIOWA\nRMN\n8\n12.2\n5.7\nRMN\nRMN\nKs\nRMN\n7\n20\n10\n\"\n\"\nFORD\nKy\nRMN\n6\n11\n11\n9\n18.3\nMo\nRMN\n12\n1.2\n11.4\nLIBRARY\n?\nRMV\nMont\nRMN\n4\n9\n7.3\nRMN\nRMN\nNeb.\nRMN\n5\n28\n8.4\nRMN\nRMN\nNeva,\nRMN\n3\n8.2\n13.3\nRMN\nRMN\nNH\nRMN\n4\nf.z\n11\n3.8\n\"\nRMN\n2.1\n9.1\n\"\nNJ\n17\n11\nNM\nRMN\n4\n\"\n./\n12.1\n7.9\n1968 Election 55-45 Wallace split\nWinnerit Wino\nstate 1965 Winer Elect, Vote (1972) Margin Wallace E Split D Splits if\nNC\nRMD\n13\n16.3\n31.3\nRMN\nQMN\nND\n3\n17.7\n5.8\n11\n11\nRMN\n\"\n\"\nOH\n25\n2.Z\n11.8\nOkla\n11\n8\n15.7\n20.3\nif\n6\n6.1\n11\n11\nOreg.\n6\n11\n\"\nSC\n8\n8.5\n32.3\n4\n11\n11\nSD\n11.3\n4,8\n11\n\"\nTN\n10\n9.8\n34\n\"\n\"\nUtal\n4\n19.4\n6.4\n3\n9.3\n\"\n\"\nVt.\n3.2\nVa.\n11\n10,9\n\"\n11\n23.6\n7,6\n\"\n\"\nWisc.\n11\n3.6\n\"\n\"\nWyo.\n3\n20.3\n8.7\nAlaska\n\"\n\"\n3\n2.6\n12.1\nAriz.\n6\n9.6\n11\n\"\n19.8\n\"\nCalif.\n45\nil\n3\n6.7\nColo\nor\n\"\n7\n9.2\n7.5\nDel.\n\"\n3\n3.5\nd\n13.3\nFla.\n\"\n17\n9.6\n28.5\n\"\n\"\n4\n12\nIDAH.\n26.1\n12.6\nIll.\n26\n2.9\n8.5\n\"\n11\nIND.\n12.3\n11.5\n\"\n\"\n13\nFORD\nStates HHH won which go GOP w/ 55-45 GOP split:\nLIBRARY\n(Total Elect. notes) : 36\nStates Wallace won which go GOP w/ 55-45 GOP split:\n(Total Elect. voter) ; 38\nStates Wallace won which go DEM w/ 55-45 Dem Split:\nTotal Elect votes : 45\nStates RMN won which go DEM w/ 55-45 DEM split:\nTotal Elect votes : 0 OR 12 (Missouri).\n[June 1976]\nElectability\nPrimary Results\nNat'l Polls\nElectoral strates,\nstate Polls\n1964\nincombert President\nRR margin schind\nPositioning - RR extreme\nRR Arguements\nAnti- Washington\nWallace+ + Republicans\nStrong in Right Places\nFORDO is DERALD LIBRARY\n[June 1976]\nPresident Ford The Winner in November\nI\nGerald Food has a stoong record as President\nA. under his leadership, intlation her been cut in\nhalf and Rure are 1.3 million new jobs.\nB. President Ford is the first in urmbent since Eisenhow\nwho can caropaign with R nation at peace\nC. President Ford has restored trust and writence\nin government.\nII\nPresident Ford runs aread of Reagan against Carter\nin every national poll\nFord\nCarter\nUndec\nReason Caster under\nHarris\n40\n53\n7\n35\n58\n7\nGallup\n39\n53\n8\n35\n58\nY\nTime?\nWash 2\n34\n48\n3250\nNBC\nIII\nResident Ford has a national appeal\nA. He is the national choice of Republicans\nFord Regan undecided\nHarris\n60\n30\n10\nNBC\n60\n30\n10\nQERALD 8. FORD. LIBRARY\nGallup\n51\n41\n8\nB. He is R national boice of independents\nGallup Ford Rengan Underided\n52\n33\n13\nineiPer pasty\nC. President Ford is the only candidate to win\nprimaries in all octions of The country\nNH 4\nVt. 3\nMass 14\nF/o. 17\nIll 26\nWisc 11\nNY 41\nPena. 27\nDC 3\nW.Va. 6\nMd. 10\nMich 21\nKy\n9\nTenn 10\nOre. 5\nRT\n4\nFORDO & 07/839 LIBRARY\nNJ 17\nQUIO 25\n253\nReagan has when only one primary ontside Re Sunselt. The total\nelectoral vote strong of his privacy vidories is 141,\nEar short of R 270 needed to nominate\n[June 1976]\n/. Ford has a strong record as President\nPeace Presperity + Trust\n2. Food runs ahead of Regan ingainst United in every\nnational poll.\n3. Ford has a national appeal to\nRepublicans\nIndependents\nPrimary Victories\nElectoral Votes\n4. Reagan risks another 1964\n23 points behind (no one else like Ret since Stereasin)\nReagan's strength is in wrons places\nwon't get Wallace voto\nToo Exteme\nFORD is LIBRARY 938839\nAFTER THE PRIMARIES: SOME STATISTICS WHICH\n[Jane 1976]\nSHOW RELATIVE STRENGTHS OF REAGAN, FORD, AND\nCARTER\nAll regions are PFC regions. All percentages are based on\nthe Ford and Reagan vote.\nREGION\nFORD %\nREAGAN %\nELECTORAL VOTE\nNortheast\n77\n23\n165\nSouth\n47.3\n52.7\n100\nGreat Plains\n46\n54\n49\nSouthwest\n33\n67\n40\nNorthwest\n36\n64\n70\nRocky Mountain\n29\n71\n18\nMidwest\n58\n42\n96\nUsing these figures as showing regional leads, :\nFord leads 63-37 in regions containing 261 electoral votes (MW+NE)\nReagan leads 60-40 in regions containing 277 electoral votes (w,S,GPAL\nBUT: When the Northeast, South, and Midwest are combined\n(361 electoral votes), Ford leads Reagan 60-40.\nWhen the Northeast, South, Midwest, and Great Plains regions\nare combined (410 electoral votes), Ford leads Reagan 59x4k. 59. 5-40.5\n2. Reagan leads Ford in regions containing 177 electoral votes:\nGreat Plains, Southwest, Northwest, Rocky Mountains: 64-36;\nbut in those regions, Democratic primary voters cast 62% more\nvotes than GOP primary voters.\n3. In the Northeast, South, and Midwest, regions containing\n361 electoral votes, Carter received nearly 100% more votes\nthan Reagan, but in these same regions, Ford outra Reagan\nby 20% (50% more votes) and got nearly 80% of Carter's vote.\nLIBRARY GERALD ? FORD\nN poll rel. 6/14 shows 1 pt.\ndiff. betw. Canter/Ford + Carter/Reager So. in\nPage 2\n4. When the home states of both Ford and Reagan are omitted\n(to compensate for home state advantage), Ford led Reagan\n56 to 44 in all of the rest of the primary states.\n6. Ford led Reagan 55-45 when the South and Midwest are\ncombined. (265 electoral votes)\n7. In the Midwest and Northeast, with a total of 261 electoral\nvotes, :\nFord: 3461579\nCarter: 3472171\nReagan: 2025307\nThus, Carter received 71% more votes in the Midwest and\nNortheast than Reagan, but only 3% more than Ford.\n8. When the South, Midwest, Southwest and Northwest are\ncombined: (306 electoral votes)\nFord: 4010333\nor 49. 7%\nReagan: 4057107\nor 50.3%\n9. When the South, West, and Northeast are combined: (375EV)\nFord: 2919000\nor 48.8\nReagan: 3061000\nor 51.2\n10.\nWhen the West, Midwest, and Northeast are combined (371 EV):\nFord: 4573\nor 53\nReagan: 4035\n47\nBERALD B. FORD RART 11.\nReagan won only I primary outside\nof the South + West, and by a 51-49\nmarzin\nSurvey data NY T\n5/6 ofic shows he would have lost\ncrossomers he would not have gotten\nIndiana without the benefit of wallace\nin 1964.\nJune 9, 1976\nMEMORANDUM FOR:\nJOHN DEERDOURFF\nFROM:\nFOSTER CHANOCK\nSUBJECT:\nMissouri Convention Handout\n1. Ford-Reagan among Republicans.\nGALLUP\nHARRIS\nFord\nReagan\nUndecided\nFord\nReagan\nUndecided\nMay\n60\n35\n5\n60\n30\n10\nApril\n56\n32\n12\n59\n30\n11\nMarch\n51\n41\n8\n60\n30\n10\nFebruary\n55\n35\n10\n51\n34\n15\n2. No Republican can be elected without Independents.\nGALLUP\nFord Reagan Undecided\nMay\n52\n33\n15\nApril\n50\n32\n18\nMarch\n49\n37\n14\nFORD is LIBRARY\nFebruary\n44\n31\n25\n-2-\n3. No Republican can win the Presidency without carrying a\nmajority of the following states' electoral votes.\n* Pennsylvania (27)\nMissouri (12)\n* Illinois (26)\n*\nWisconsin (11)\n* Michigan (21)\n* Maryland (10)\n* Ohio (25)\n*\nFlorida (17)\n* New Jersey (17)\n* Kentucky (9)\nCalifornia (45)\n* Tennessee (10)\nTexas (26)\n( * States won by President in the primaries. )\n4. Ford is a stronger national candidate than Reagan.\nGALLUP\nFord/Carter Ford/Humphrey\nJune 1976 40 / 52\n45 / 46\nI\nReagan/Carter Reagan/Humphrey\n37 / 55\n42 / 52\nHARRIS\nMay 1976 43 / 47\nI\n35 / 53\nJune 40/53\n35/50\nFORD is LIBRARY\nTHE WHITE HOUSE\nWASHINGTON\nJune 3, 1976\nMEMORANDUM FOR:\nFOSTER CHANOCK\nFROM:\nDAVE GERGEN\nSUBJECT:\nVoting in Primaries\nJudy Muhlberg has just pulled together results from all\nof the primaries held so far. With three big ones left,\nhere's how things stand:\n-- The President has a margin of a little better\nthan 52-48% over Reagan in all of the votes in Republican\nprimaries. The actual vote margin is about 340,000 in\nthe President's favor.\n-- Breaking the vote into regions (the same regional\ndefinitions used by the PFC), the President has more votes\nthan Reagan in the Midwest and Northeast and is about even\nin the North West. Reagan is leading in the South, the\nPlains, and the Rocky Mountain states.\n--- On the Democratic side, Carter has collected about\n42% of the total Democratic votes cast so far.\n-- Overall, about twice as many voters have pulled\nthe Democratic lever in the primaries as the Republican\none. Note that the Democratic total is inflated by over\na million votes because there were no GOP votes in\nPennsylvania and D.C. Nonetheless, the Democratic margin\nis still about 2-1.\n--- Total GOP votes have exceeded total Democratic\nvotes in the Great Plains and Rocky Mountain areas and\nhave been almost equal in the Midwest.\n-- Total Democratic votes have exceeded total GOP\nvotes by a margin of 3-1 in the South, 3-1 in the South-\nwest, and 2-1 in the North East.\nFORD LIBRARY is GERALD\n- 2 -\n-- Total GOP votes have exceeded total Democratic\nvotes in the following states: New Hampshire, Illinois,\nMichigan, Nebraska, South Dakota and Idaho.\nAttachments\nFORD : LIBRARY 938830\nPRIMARY VOTE BY REGION\nREPUBLICAN\nDEMOCRAT\nREGION\nFORD\nREAGAN\nOTHER\nTOTAL\nCARTER\nOTHER\nTOTAL\nNorth East\n451,807\n320,880\n25,887\n799,071\n1,074,433\n2,375,017\n3,479,934\nSouthern\n621,807\n691,586\n3,362\n1,316,755\n1,925,155\n1,724,705\n3,910,244\nMid West\n1,780,376\n1,260,720\n16,499\n3,059,595\n1,625,595\n1,729,225\n3,370,505\nGreat\n129,983\n154,743\n288,237\n90,018\n133,946\n231,141\nPlains\nSouth West\n151,032\n309,936\n2,052\n463,020\n736,161\n679,429\n1,544,907\nNorth West\n160,678\n164,858\n325,536\n131,102\n352,593\n488,290\nRocky Mtns\n37,462\n91,593\n129,844\n21,830\n105,100\n127,934\nTOTALS\n3,333,145\n2,994,316\n47,800\n6,382,058\n5,604,294\n7,100,015 13,152,955\nLIBRANT GERALD FORD\nREPUBLICAN\nDEMOCRAT\nREGION\nFORD\nREAGAN\nOTHER\nTOTAL\nCARTER\nOTHER\nTOTAL\nNorth East\nConn\nDel\nD.C.\nFord\nran unopposed\n--\n9,281\n14,079\n23,360\nKent\n67,868\n62,567\n130,435\n181,291\n112,423\n305,566\nMaine\nMass\n115,375\n63,555\n14,481\n193,411\n101,948\n645,686\n747,364\nN.J.\nN.Y.\nPenn\nFord ran unopposed\n506,898\n855,164\n1,362,062\nR.I.\n9,329\n4,406\n14,232\n18,141\n23,357\n60,400\nVa.\nW Va\n82,281\n62,975\n145,256\n321,701\n321,701\nN.H.\n55,156\n53,569\n11,155\n119,880\n23,373\n59,008\n82,381\nVer\n27,014\n4,892\n251\n32,157\n16,335\n22,379\n38,714\nMd\n94,784\n68,916\n163,700\n217,166\n321,220\n538,386\n451,807\n320,880\n25,887\n799,071\n1,074,433\n2,375,017\n3,479,934\nSouthern\nAla\n19,114\n35,007\n/\n54,121\n167,804\n318,430\n683,000\nArk\n11,449\n20,209\n31,658\n315,553\n129,091\n502,151\nGa\n59,801\n128,671\n188,472\n411,616\n78,941\n490,557\nLa\nMiss\nN.C.\n88,897\n101,468\n3,362\n193,727\n324,437\n280,395\n604,832\nS.C.\nOkla\nP.R.\nTenn\n120,564\n118,394\n238,958\n256,901\n66,362\n329,374\nVir Is\nFla\n321,982\n287,837\n609,819\n448,844\n851,486\n1,300,330\n621,807\n691,586\n3,362\n1,316,755\n1,925,155\nMid West\n1,724,705\n3,910,244\nIll\n456,750\n311,295\n7,848\n777,893\n630,915\n680,999\n1,311,914\nInd\n307,582\n323,772\n631,354\n417,463\n196,898\n614,361\nMich\n689,540\n363,791\n8,651\n1,061,982\n305,997\n382,020\n703,702\nOhio\nWisc\n326,504\n261,862\n588,366\n271,220\n469,308\n740,528\n1,780,376/1,260,720\n16,499\n3,059,595\n1,625,595\n1,729,225\nGreat Plains\n3,370,505\nIowa\nKans\nMinn\nMo\nNeb\n93,299\n112,116\n205,415\n65,263\n107,152\n172,415\nN.Dak\nS.Dak\n36,684\n42,627\n82,822\n24,755\n26,794\n58,726\n129,983\n154,743\n288,237\n90,018\n133,946\nSouth West\n231,141\nAri\nN.Mex\nTexas\n151,032\n309,936\n2,052\n463,020\n736,161\n679,429\n1,544,907\nUtah\n151,032\n309,936\n2,052\n463,020\n736,161\n679,429\n1,544,907\nNorth West\nAlaska\nGERALD\nGuam\nLIBRASY\nHawaii\nNev\n13,767\n31,616\n45,383\n17,538\n53,090\n75,223\nOre\n146,911\n133,242\n280,153\n113,564\n299,503\n413,067\nWash\nCalif\n160,678\n164,858\n325,536\n131,102\n352,593\nRocky Mtns\n488,290\nCol\nIdaho\n22,240\n66,583\n88,823\n8,782\n62,904\n72,690\nMont\n15,222\n25,010\n41,021\n13,048\n42,196\n55,244\nWyoming\n37,462\n91,593\n129,844\n21,830\n105,100\n127,934\nTHE WHITE HOUSE\nWASHINGTON\nJune 17, 1976\nMEMORANDUM FOR:\nDICK CHENEY\nFROM:\nDAVE GERGEN of\nSUBJECT:\nVoting in the Primaries\nJudy Muhlberg has pulled together the final results from the primaries.\nFrom this information, one can make the following observations:\n-- The President had a margin of 52-48% (51.5-47.8%) over\nReagan in all of the votes in Republican primaries. The actual\nvote margin is about 388, 000 in the President's favor.\n-- Breaking the vote into regions (the same regional definitions\nused by the PFC), the President had more votes than Reagan in the\nMidwest and the Northeast. Reagan led in the South, the Great Plains,\nthe Northwest, and the Rocky Mountain states.\n-- On the Democratic side, Carter collected about 39% of the\ntotal Democratic votes cast. Prior to the June 8th primaries, he\nheld 42% of the total Democratic votes.\n-- Overall, the Democratic vote exceeded the GOP vote by about\na 60-40 margin (57-43). Note that the Democratic total is inflated\nbecause there were no GOP votes in D. C. and New Jersey. Nonetheless,\nthe Democratic margin is still about 2-1.\n-- Total GOP votes exceeded total Democratic votes in the Great Plains\nand Rocky Mountain areas.\n-- Total Democratic votes exceeded total GOP votes by a margin of 3-1\nin the South, 3-1 in the Southwest, and 4-1 in the North East (Keeping\nin mind, however, that there were not GOP votes in two of the contests\nin the North East region.)\nFORD is LIBRARY BERALD\n-- Total GOP votes exceeded total Democratic votes in the following\nstates: New Hampshire, Indiana, Michigan, Nebraska, South Dakota,\nand Idaho.\n-- The President ran ahead of Carter in the Mid West, the Great\nPlains, the Northwest, and the Rocky Mountain states, although\nCarter's actual vote margin over the President is approximately 2\nmillion votes.\nAttachments\nFORD i 078870 LIBRARY\nLIBRARY\nFORD\nPRIMARY VOTE BY REGION\nis\nGERALD\nREGION\nFORD\nREAGAN\nOTHER\nTOTAL\nCARTER\nOTHER\nTOTAL\nNorth East 1,185,315 361,468\n26,395\n1,573,177\n1,278,090\n2,513,748' 4,016,985\nSouthern\n621,807\n691,989\n3,846\n1,317,613\n1,925,155 1,724,705 3,910,244\nMid West\n2,276,264 1,663,839\n19,050\n3,960,153\n2,194,081 2,252,117 4,461,883\nGreat\n130,218\n155,120\n4,055\n289,393\n90,018\n133,946\n231,141\nPlains\nSouth West\n151,032\n309,936\n2,052\n463,020\n736,161\n679,429 1,544,907\nNorth West\n961,230 1,701,279\n2,365 2,664,874\n821,556 2,949,958 3,852,519\nRocky Mtns.\n37,462\n91,593\n-----\n129,844\n21,830\n105,100\n127,934\nTOTALS\n5,363,328 4,975,224\n57,763 10,398,074\n7,066,891 10,359,003 18,145,613\nREPUBLICAN\nDEMOCRAT\nREGION\nFORD\nREAGAN\nOTHER\nTOTAL\nCARTER\nOTHER\nTOTAL\nNorth East\nConn\nDel\nD.C.\nFord ran unopposed --\n9,281\n14,079\n23,360\nKent\n67,868\n62,567\n130,435\n181,291\n112,423\n305,566\nMaine\nMass\n115,375\n63,555\n14,481\n193,411\n101,948\n645,686\n747,364\nN.J.\nFord ran unopposed\n203,657\n138,731\n537,061\nN.Y.\nby Delegate\nPenn\n733,472\n40.514\n733.986\n506,898\n855,164\n1,362,062\nR.I.\n9,365\n4,480\n508\n14,352\n18,141\n23,357\n60,400\nVa\nW Va\n82,281\n62,975\n145,256\n321,701\n321,701\nN.H.\n55,156\n53,569\n11,155\n119,880\n23,373\n59,008\n82,381\nVer\n27,014\n4,892\n251\n32,157\n16,335\n22,379\n38,714\nMd\n94,784\n68,916\n163,700\n217,166\n321,220\n538,386\n1,185,315\n361,468\n26,395\n1,573,177\n1,278,090\n2,513,748\n4,016,985\nSouthern\nAla\n19,114\n35,007\n/\n54.121\n167,804\n318,430\n683,000\nArk\n11,449\n20,612\n484\n32,546\n/\n315,553\n129,091\n502,151\nGa\n59,801\n128,671\n188,472\n411,616\n78,941\n490,557\nLa\nMiss\nN.C.\n88,897\n101,468\n3,362\n\\\n193,727\n324,437\n280,395\n604,832\nS.C.\nOkla\nP.R.\nTenn\n120,564\n118,394\n238,958\n256,901\n66,362\n329,374\nVir Is\nFla\n321,982\n287,837\n609,819\n448,844\n851,486\n1,300,330\n621,807\n691,989\n3,846\n1,317,613\n1,925,155\n1,724,705\n3,910,244\n[id West\nIll\n456,750\n311,295\n7,582\n\\\n775,627\n\\\n630,915\n680,999\n1,311,914\nInd\n307,582\n323,772\n631,354\n417,463\n196,898\n614,361\nMich\n689,540\n363,791\n8,651\n1,061,982\n305,997\n382,020\n703,702\nOhio\n495,523\n403,855\n899,378\n568,486\n522,892\n1,091,378\nWisc\n326,869\nI\n262,126\n2,817\n591,812\n271,220\n469,308\n740,528\n2,276,264\n1,663,839\n19,050\n3,960,153\n\\\n2,194,081\n2,252,117\n4,461,883\nreat Plains\nIowa\nKans\nMinn\nMo\nNeb\n93,299,\n112,116\n205,415\n65,263\n107,152\n172,415\nN.Dak\nS.Dak\n36,919\n43,004\n4,055\n/\n83,978\n/\n24,755\n26,794\n58,726\n130,218\n155,120\n4,055\n289,393\n90,018\n133,946\n231,141\nouth West\nAri\nN.Mex\nTexas\n151,032\n309,936\n2,052\n463,020\n736,161\n679,429\n1,544,907\nUtah\n151,032\n309,936\n2,052\n463,020\n736,161\n679,429\n1,544,907\north West\nAlaska\nGuam\nERALO FORD LIBRA\nHawaii\nNev\n13,747\n31,637\n2,365\n47,749\n17,538\n53,090\n75,223\nOre\n146,911\n133,242\n280,153\n113,564\n299,503\n413,067\nWash\nCalif\n800,572\n1,536,400\n2,336,972\n690,454\n2,597,365\n3,364,229\n961,230\n1,701,279\n2,365\n2,664,874\n821,556\n2,949,958\n3,852,519\nocky Mtns\nCol\nIdaho\n22,240\n66,583\n88,823\n8,782\n62,904\n72,690\nMont\n15,222\n25,010\n41,021\n13,048\n42,196\n55,244\nWyoming\n37,462\n91,593\n129,844\n21,830\n105,100\n127,934\nLAW OFFICES\nDent, Kirkland, Taylor & Wilson\nHARRY S. DENT\nWASHINGTON OFFICE.\nSTANCEL E. KIRKLAND\nGRANBY LAW BUILDING\n(MR. DENT ONLY)\nHENRY H. TAYLOR\n1700 SUNSET BOULEVARD (HWY. 378)\nBOX 19527\nADDISON G. WILSON\nWASHINGTON. D. C. 20006\nDRAWER 175\n(202) 785.9454\nJOHN F. O'CONNOR. JR.\nWEST COLUMBIA, SOUTH CAROLINA 29169\nOF COUNSEL.\nTELEPHONE (803) 796.9160\nKENNETH M. ROBINSON\nJune 21, 1976\nDear Fellow Delegate:\nAs you may know, I am helping President Ford in his search for Delegate\nsupport in the South. Attached is a column by N.Y. Times writer James Reston\nechoing a course I have suggested we pursue in seeking to re-unite our party,\nhold the White House, help our other candidates, and keep our party viable.\nWinning in 1976 is vital for all Republicans, especially Southern\nRepublicans. An Imperial Carter Presidency would betray the conservative tide\nrunning in America today. It would stifle our progress in building a 2-party\nsystem in Dixie. Also, it would accelerate the unionization of Southern\nindustry, thus stalling the rapidly expanding economic and political power\nwhich has been shifting from North to South.\nThe Democrats have agreed on a fuzzy candidate and a fuzzy platform\nwhich newsmen say are viewed as conservative by those who want the conservative\napproach and liberal by those who want the liberal approach. Wisely, the\nDemocrats want no repeat of their 1972 disaster.\nIn view of the good record our Republican President has compiled in\nmaintaining peace, promoting prosperity, and exemplifying personal integrity\nand public trust, it would be unwise and unfair to dump him at our convention.\nHis record is worthy of party and non-party support, and no one has a better,\nlonger, or more effective record of service to our party and our Country.\nI have not agreed with all the President's actions. However, no one we\ncan elect can do all we may desire because a President has to be responsive\nto all the people, and he has more information upon which to make the big\njudgments, as I learned in my service in the White House.\nI concede the President is not a good salesman for himself and his record.\nHowever, we can give him a running mate and others who can do a better job of\nselling him, and that is as it should be. Governors Reagan and Connally could\ndo the selling job either as running mates or otherwise.\nThe attribute of Jerry Ford that most compels me to give my best effort is\nthe undisputed fact that he is a good and just leader who does what he believes\nto be right and best for America.\nIf I can answer any questions I will be glad to try or get you the answer.\nWith best wishes, I am,\nSincerely,\nyour\nis\nDet\nHarry S. Dent\nHSD:lwd\nBERÄLD FORD LIBRARY\nThe U.S.News-Letter\nWASHINGTON\nA Private Weekly Report And Forecast From U.S. News & World Report\n2300 N Street NW Washington DC 20037\nTel (202) 333-7400 Cable Address WORLDREPOR\nFriday, June 25, 1976\nDear Subscriber:\nThe talk in the Oval Office at the White House is -- \"team up with Reagan.\"\nThough cool to the idea, President Ford is starting to see the logic of it.\nHe is turning it over carefully -- hearing out the proponents who come to call.\nFord's a realist. He knows that Jimmy Carter is way out front in the polls\nand he knows too that internal discord could destroy the GOP's election hopes.\nOld, close advisers have been putting it to him bluntly: Join with Reagan\nor forget it -- \"only a unified Republican Party can be successful this year.\" \"\nThe victory formula? Hold onto all Republican votes, then go out and get\nenough Democrats and independents to offset Carter's basic numerical advantage.\nConversations at the White House sift some bleak probabilities: Should the GOP\nfail to come to terms with itself and get Ford and Reagan into the same harness\nthere will be bitterness, defections and perhaps the worst GOP loss since 1964.\nNeither Ford nor Reagan can afford at this point to talk openly of a merger.\nThey would lose face and credibility. But -- their friends can do some talking,\nand that is what will happen in the weeks ahead -- gradual moves toward unity,\nmeetings that don't get in the papers, cooling down of the roughhouse rhetoric.\nFord will take the initiative, because he has a narrow edge in delegates\nand could make the reconciliation bid in a graceful way through intermediaries.\nThe approach will be simple: We'd make a great team. Reagan to nail down\nvotes in the South and West -- including some conservative Democrats -- and Ford\nto exploit Carter's rather shaky position in the Midwest and Northeastern states.\nNote that Reagan -- even as No. 2 on the ticket -- would still have stature.\nWhy so? He's made a comeback that is already one of the year's biggest stories.\nNow a seasoned campaigner, Reagan is persuasive and has proved he's no quitter.\nSome Carterites, by the way, say a Ford-Reagan team is the only fear they have.\nSurvey Finds Ford as Strong as Reagan in the South\nBy JAMES M. NAUGHTON\nFord Widens Lead\nA majority of Republicans on\nPresident Ford would be at least as strong a Repub-\nDespite continued evidence\nboth sides of the nominating\nlican Presidential nominee in the South and West as would\nhtat Mr. Reagan was the pre-\ncontest agreed that Mr. Ford\nferred nominee of Republicans\nhad been correct to pardon\nRonald Reagan, according to the latest national survey of\nin the West, the survey showed\nformer President Richard M.\nvoter attitudes by The New\nthat Mr. Ford had substantially\nNixón, that school busing under\nwidned a lead in popularity\nYork Times and CBS News.\namong Southern Republicans in\ncourt orders should be cur-\nFORD\nVERALD\nLIBRART\nPresident Ford\n\"A Winner in November\"\nThe greatest concern to all Republicans as we draw near the\nNational Convention in Kansas City, is selecting a Presidential\ncandidate who is most capable of leading the Party to victory\nagainst the probable Democratic nominee--Jimmy Carter.\nAs concerned Republicans, we have to listen to every argument,\nbecause we are the ones who would feel the grass-roots effect\nof a Democratic sweep. So what do the non-partisan, independent\npollsters have to say?\nMYTH #1: Ronald Reagan will run stronger than Ford against\nCarter in the South.\nTRUTH : President Ford has run consistently better than\nReagan against Carter in the South.\nFord\nCarter\nReagan\nCarter\nHARRIS SURVEY\n38%\n55%\n32%\n56%\nMay 6, 1976\nN.Y. TIMES*\n44%\n-\n39%\n-\nMay 28, 1976\nHARRIS SURVEY @\n48%\n-\n40%\n-\nJune 4, 1976\nGALLUP POLL\n32%\n61%\n30%\n65%\nJune 21, 1976\nFord Most Electable GOPer\nBy LEE BANDY\nNationally. the latest Gallup\nPresident now is telling dele-\nWashington Bureau\nPoll also shows Ford doing\ngates that no one, including\nmuch better against Carter\nReagan. is being ruled out as\nWASHINGTON If Repub-\nthan Reagan. The President\na running mate. Ford points\nlican Ronald Reagan has a\ntrails the Georgian by 14\nout he offered Reagan two\nbetter chance against Demo-\nWashington\npoints. Reagan is much fur-\nCabinet positions and that he\ncrat Jimmy Carter in the\nther behind. 23 points to be ex-\nwould not have done so if the\nLIBRARY\nThe Columbia Record\nPUBLISHED BY COLUMBIA NEWSPAPERS. INC.\n10-A\n*\nTuesday, June 15, 1976\nLIBRARY\nFORD\nComment & Opinion\nTogether, Ford-Reagan May\nbody else, but unless Ford and Rea-\nThe Democratic leaders, if they\nWASHINGTON - President Ford\nand Ronald Reagan have got them-\nWin\ngan supporters combine against the\nhad had their way, would probably\nDemocrats, the Republicans will be in\nhave done the same thing, but Carter,\nselves and the Republican Party into\nserious trouble.\nthe new boy, knocked them over, and\nsuch a pickle in the presidential elec-\nWould Reagan accept second\nis now putting together the party or-\ntion that maybe their best hope now\nplace? The chances are that, if he lost\nganization, the labor union leaders\nand\nine\nWest\nand\nnume\nThe U.S.News-Letter\nWASHINGTON\nA Private Weekly Report And Forecast From U.S. News & World Report\n2300 N Street NW\nWashington DC 20037\nTel (202) 333-7400\nCable Address WORLDREPOR\nFriday, June 18, 1976\nThe Ford-Reagan race for the GOP nomination gets tighter as the hours pass.\nThe one who wins the day at the August convention will do so by a whisker.\nHere's how they're now positioned: delegates for Ford, 960; for Reagan, 873,\naccording to an Associated Press tally. Of those remaining, 170 are uncommitted,\n255 will be picked in state conventions, one backs Commerce Secretary Richardson.\nAs to those to be divvied up at state conventions, we did a nose count --\nprojections based on calls to sources in the states. Here is how it looks:\nJune 18-19\nJune 24-26\nJuly 8-10 July 16-17\n10th\n/// Maxico\nColorado NOTURE DELICTER\n/\nUtah\nTotal\nFord\n18\n17\n0\n6\n15\n2\n0\n10 11\n35\n0\n114\nReagan\n18\n0\n4\n32\n3 18 21\n18\n7\n0 20\n141\nIf our figures are right (you'll be able to check that starting tomorrow),\nthe score as they head for Kansas City will be Ford, 1,074, to 1,014 for Reagan.\nThey will both be within one good lunge of the 1,130 needed for nomination,\nand that's why the name of the game is \"commit the uncommitteds.\" As for them,\nbig blocs of Reagan leaners in states like Mississippi, Virginia and Wyoming\ngive the Californian an edge, but it now appears that he still won't have enough\nto overcome the President's lead. That's why most forecasters are picking Ford.\nHowever there's this to consider: Some Ford support is wavering. In states\nlike New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania there is hidden backing for Reagan.\nThis means if he charges in the stretch and Ford trips over platform issues --\nsuch as detente or the wheat \"giveaway\" Reagan has a chance to turn it around.\nBut we still think Ford will win it, then pick Reagan as his running mate.\nis\nFORD\nSorry for a sour note about the Bicentennial, but best you be forewarned.\nGERALD\nIt has\nnational birthday\nLIBRARY\nLabor Has High Hopes In '76\nBy LEE BANDY\nhave been vetoed by the Presi- with their pro-labor package.\ncome the centerpiece of the\nWashington Bureau\ndent and subsequently sus- And by then. it will be virtual-\nDemocratic Presidential plat\ntained by Congress. which was ly too late for any one person\nform.\nWASHINGTON Big labor\nunable to obtain the necessarv or group to stop them with a\nCHA NNOCK\nJune 21, 1976\nMEMORANDUM TO ROGERS MORTON\nFROM\n: ROB QUARTEL\nRALPH STANLEY Hanley\nSUBJECT\n: \"ELECTABILITY\"\nIn the last several days, Reagan has concentrated on the\nargument that he is \"more electable\" than President Ford.\nThe attached wire story indicates that he has sent maps to\n.. all delegates which most certainly support his argument\nin a very dramatic-- if misleading--manner.\nThis is a problem of special concern given those actions,\nand the seeming plausibility of his argument.\nReagan's primary argument is that he has run better than the\nPresident in those areas of the country in which Car er will\nbe of the greatest threat to the Republican nominee.\nThat argument is superficially correct--Reagan has won more\nprimaries--numerically--than the President in the South.\nThe argument is blatently false upon analysis, as the following\nindependent polling data indicate:\n1. President Ford runs stronger against Carter in every\nregion of the country in both the NY Times (May 28)\nand Harris Survey (May 6).\n2. President Ford runs ahead of Reagan in every area of\nthe country, except the West--despite the myth that\nReagan runs better in the South, Ford beats Reagan\n44 - 39% (NY Times).\n3. Ford runs even with Carter in the East, and beats\nCarter in the West. Reagan loses against Carter in\nevery region (Harris Survey).\nSeveral myths must be countered immediately:\nMYTH: Reagan runs stronger than Ford against Carter's stronghold\nin the South.\nTRUTH: Ford runs ahead of Reagan in the South. Ford enjoys\na greater advantage against Carter in the South than\ndoes Reagan according to the only independent polling\ninformation available.\nFORD is LIBRARY\nMemorandum to Rogers Morton\nPage 2\nMYTH: Reagan will dominate the West against Carter; and\ndominates the traditional Republican areas in the\nMidwest.\nTRUTH: Almost 75% of the voting age population in the\nWest lives in California, accounting for the bulk\n--well over 60% of Reagan's total vote in the West.\nFord, in fact, runs a full 11% ahead of Carter in\nthe West, while Reagan runs 9% behind.\nThis is bolstered by the fact that Carter picks up\nonly 10% of the vote, versus 64% for other Democratic ic\ncandidates, in the Wester.\nIn the Midwest, Ford beats Reagan 2 to 1 (59% to 28%).\nFord's advantage here is particularly important, since\nthe Midwest is Carter's second strongest area.\nMYTH: Reagan will pick up the Independent vote.\nTRUTH: Reagan loses to Carter by 18% among Independents,\naccording to the NY Times survey.\nFord, on the other hand, runs even with Carter among\nIndependents-- and better among the College educated\nand the business community (Reagan loses by 17% among\nbusinessmen -traditionally strong Republican sector).\nFinally, in the East, where Republicans will have to pick up\nelectoral votes from states like New York and Pennsylvania,\nFord draws even with Carter- but Reagan loses to Carter by\nalmost 2 to 1.\nCONCLUSION:\nReagan enjoys no advantages in any area of the country against\nCarter- and no advantages over Ford, except in his own state\nof California.\nFord, on the other hand, does better than Reagan against Carter\nin the South; has at least an even chance against Carter in\nthe critical East; and enjoys a strong advantage over Carter\nin the West.\nFord is not only more electable than Reagan--he's more\nelectable against the one that counts--Jimmy Carter.\nFORD is LIBRARY 078835\n<07 DONALD LAMBRO\nLOS ANGELES (UPI) IN HIS RACE-TO-THE-WIRE SPRINT AGAINST\nPRESIDENT FORD, RONALD REAGAN IS INCREASINGLY HAMMERING AWAY AT THE\nONE ISSUE HE THINKS MAY DECIDE WHO WINS AT KANSAS CITY\nELECTABILITY.\nDESPITE EARLY RELUCTANCE TO TAG FORD RS A LOSER, REAGAN IS NOV\nSTRIKING HARDEST ON THE CLAIM THAT HE HAS A BETTER CHANCE THAN THE\nPRESIDENT OF DEFEATING JIMMY CARTER IN NOVEMBER.\nUNCOMMITTED DELEGATES AND THOSE YET TO BE CHOSEN ARE PROVIDED BY\nREAGAN'S FORCES WITH MAPS SHOWING THE CALIFORNIAN HAS WON Я BROADER\nBASE OF SUPPORT IN MORE REGIONS OF THE COUNTRY THAN FORD.\nMOREOVER, BEFORE CLOSED DOOR CRUCUS MEETINGS WITH IOWA DELEGATES\nAT THEIR WEEKEND CONVENTION, REAGAN BLUNTLY DECLARED THAT ONLY A\nNON-WASHINGTON CANDIDATE SUCH AS HIMSELF COULD WAGE A WINNING\nOFFENSIVE AGAINST CARTER'S ANTI-WASHINGTON CAMPAIGN.\n\"ONLY AN ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT CANDIDATE IS GOING TO HAVE i CHANCE\nAGRINST JIMMY CARTER,\" ONE GOP DELEGATE QUOTED REAGAN AS SWING.\n\"FORD HAS BEEN PART OF THAT ESTABLISHMENT MOST OF HIS ENTIRE ADU IT T\nLIFE.\nIN APPEARANCES IN IOWA AND WASHINGTON STATE SATURDAY WHERE HE\nWON 48 DELEGATES TO FORD'S 26 -- REAGAN CLOSED HIS STANDARD CAMPAIGN\nSPEECH WITH A FERVENT PITCH ON \"THE ISSUE OF ELECTABILITY IN\nNOVEMBER.\nREAGAN STRATEGISTS SAY THAT IN THE CLOSING DAYS OF THE BATTLE FOR\nDELEGATES, THE ISSUE WILL BE PRESSED EVEN HARDER.\nUPI 06-21 08:59 RED\nGERALD\nLIBRAR\nNEW YORK TIMES/CBS POLL, MAY 28, 1976\nRegional Distribution of Support\n(in percent)\nfor Nomination Among Republicans\n(Based on New York Times/CBS News national poll)\nCarter- Brown (Humphrey\nSOUTH\nOther Democratic dates were not in ted in\ntheir national support was too small to allow \"gn licant 10 nonal breakdowns\nFORD is LIBRAR\nSTANDINGS: FORD - REAGAN V. CARTER\nHarris, May 6, 1976\nFORD\nREAGAN\nCARTER\nTotal:\n34%\n53%\n43%\n47%\nEast:\n44\n44\n28\n54*\n*Reagan's weakness in the East;\nnot Carter's strength\nWest:\n50\n39\n40\n49\nMid-West:\n41\n48\n38\n52\nSouth:\n36\n/\n55\n32\n56\nCollege educated:\n48\n43\n31\n57\nBusiness execs:\n51\n42\n34\n51\nIndependents:\n45\n45\n34\n52\nQ: \"Suppose for President next November, it were between Gerald Ford\nfor the Republicans and Jimmy Carter for the Democrats. If you\nhad to make up your mind right now, would you vote for Ford the\nthe Republican or for Carter the Democrat?\"\nsame question asked re: Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter\nFORD is LIBRARY\nTHE WHITE HOUSE\nWASHINGTON\nJune 25, 1976\nLIBRARY GERALD $ FORD\nDick:\nThis is a first cut at the electability\nmemo you requested. What else would\nyou like added? Whom should I give it\nto for lay out and distribution?\nFoster\nGood start - me comments\nalso - script + arguments can be\nvarid according to - 1.) target group.\nnorth-south; liberal. commentive ; and\n2.) who publishus - keep in mind we\nmay want others to say some things.\nPRESIDENT FORD -- THE WINNER IN NOVEMBER\nI.\nGerald Ford has a strong record as President.\nLIBRARY GERALD B. FORD\nA. Under his leadership, inflation has been cut in half and there\nare 3.6 million new jobs.\nB. President Ford is the first incumbent since Eisenhower who\ncan campaign with the nation at peace.\nC. President Ford has restored trust and confidence in government.\nII.\nPresident Ford runs ahead of Reagan against Carter in every national\nnot\npoll.\nHarris they\nwho Ford\nvs. Rugen. Carter\nCarter\nUndecided\nReagan\nCarter\nUndecided\nHarris 6/23\n40\n53\n7\n35\n58\n7\nGallup 6/21\n39\n53\n8\n35\n58\n7\nNBC 6/15\n37\n52\n11\n35\n58\n7\nAND IN STATE POLLS\nCalifornia\n40\n41\n19\n38\n46\n16\n5/31 - 6/5\nMinnesota\n46\n43\n11\n39\n46\n15\nIowa\n47\n46\n7\n41\n50\n9\nMissouri\n38\n44\n18\n31\n49\n18\nMichigan\n36\n35\n29\n21\n48\n31\nwe also have results from N.Dah, Minouri, - who Mo. results which\nshow Bond & Dan fath running 7-9 pts. better w/ ?. Than w/ RR,\n2\nIII. President Ford has a national appeal.\nA. He is the national choice of Republicans.\nFord\nReagan\nUndecided\nHarris\n60\n30\n10\nNBC\n60\n30\n10\nGallup\n51\n41\n8\nB. He is the national choice of Independents.\nFord\nReagan\nUndecided\nGallup\n52\n33\n13\nC. President Ford is the only candidate in either Party to\nwin primaries in all sections of the country.\nNH 4\n:\nNY 41\nKY 9\nVT 3\nPA 27\nTN 10\nMS 14\nD.C. 3\nOR 6\nFL 17\nWV 6\nRI 4\nIL 26\nMD 10\nNJ 17\nWI 11\nMI 21\nOH 25\nELECTORAL VOTE TOTAL\n254\nReagan has won only one primary outside the Sunbelt. The 144\nhe\nwin Neb. total electoral vote strength of his primary victories is far\n+\n& Indiana.\nshort of the 270 needed to win.\nFORD is LIBRARY 03\n3\nA REAGAN CANDIDACY WOULD MEAN A REPEAT OF 1964\nA Reagan candidacy in 1976 will result in a loss of landslide proportions.\nNational polls taken in recent months show Governor Reagan from 18 to\n23 points behind Carter. The two most recent polls show Reagan further\nbehind Carter than ever before, indicating that Reagan is losing ground to\nCarter. More importantly, Reagan is nearly as far behind Carter now as\nStevenson was behind Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956 -- and Stevenson lost\nboth elections. Reagan trails Carter by more than Humphrey ever trailed\nNixon in 1968, when Humphrey lost.\nThis evidence shows that Reagan cannot close the gap and would lose to\nCarter. The pattern of the inevitable Reagan defeat indicates that\nRepublicans nationally would fare as badly as they did when Reagan was\nGovernor of California. When Reagan became Governor in 1967,\nRepublicans in California had:\nBEFORE\nWhile Reagan Governor\nAfter Reagan Governor\n2 U.S. Senators\nNone\n17 of 38 Congressmen\n15 of 43 Congressmen\n19 of 40 State Senators\n15 of 40 State Senators\n38 of 80 State Assemblymen\n25 of 80 State Assemblymen\n5 of 6 Statewide Offices\n1 of 6 Statewide Offices\nSaid independent pollster Louis Harris:\nThe pattern now being run by Reagan against Carter\nis highly reminiscent of that of Arizona Senator Barry\nGoldwater in the 1964 Presidential election, when he\nlost by a landslide to Lyndon Johnson. This pattern\nthus indicates that in 1976 the electorate is highly\nunlikely to vote for an all-out conservative for President.\n(Harris, 5/6/76)\nThis estimate was confirmed by widely respected conservative political\nanalyst Kevin Phillips. In the May 28 edition of Phillips' newsletter,\nAmerican Political Report, Phillips predicted that Reagan would carry\nonly a handful of smaller states with very few electoral votes.\nThere are three major reasons why a Reagan loss in 1976 would be a\nloss of landslide proportions:\nFORD is LIBRARY 07V839\n4\n1. Governor Reagan's strength is in the wrong places;\n2. Governor Reagan is far too conservative to attract the\nlarge numbers of middle-of-the-road voters any Republican\nmust get in order to win;\n3. The hidden \"Wallace\" or \"new conservative\" voters which\nare supposed to bring Reagan victory are not going to vote\nfor Reagan.\nGovernor Reagan's strengths will do him little good and his weaknesses\nmean a certain Democratic victory in November.\nGovernor Reagan claims enough strength in the South and West and in\ntraditionally Republican areas to bring him victory in November. There's\njust one problem with Reagan's claims -- they're not true. Look at the\nfacts:\nThe West -- A recent Field poll in California, the center of Reagan's\nWestern \"strength, \" showed Reagan losing to Carter by a wide margin.\nFord\nCarter\nReagan\nCarter\n40\n41\n38\n46\nA Gallup poll released on June 27 showed that Ford runs better than\nReagan against Carter throughout the entire West:\nFord\nCarter\nReagan\nCarter\n44\n46\n42\n47\nReagan has no advantage in the South. Carter has a 30 point lead over\nboth candidates as measured by Gallup, Harris, CBS and NBC.\nSo Governor Reagan is strong only where Carter is stronger -- the\ndifference between Ford and Reagan is that Ford is strong in areas\nwhere Carter is weakest -- and these are areas where political\nanalysts are agreed that the polls and the primaries both show that\nReagan has no chance of winning.\nReagan is too conservative to win the votes of essential moderates.\nAs the attached chart shows, Governor Reagan is placed by the voters\nat the extreme right.\nFORD i LIBRARI GIVENO\n5\nHHH\nJFK\nAS (Stevenson) FORD\nGOLDWATER\nGM (McGovern)\nCARTER\nIKE\nWALLACE\nLBJ\nRN\nREAGAN\n15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15\nLIBERAL\nCONSERVATIVE\nGERALD\n?\nFORD LIBRARY\n6\nPast Presidential elections have repeatedly shown that a candidate\nas extreme as Governor Reagan (or someone equally far off-center\nto the left) will go down in defeat by a wide margin (see attached\ntable). The reason for this is that the middle-of-the-road voter is\nthe center of gravity in American politics. Any candidate who\ndoesn't get a large share of moderate votes loses badly. Reagan's\nposition on the ideological spectrum means that he won't get those\nvotes, and his support in the primary states shows that he won't\nget those votes.\nAnother 1964 would cost the GOP dearly. In 1964, the GOP lost:\n6% of its United States Senate seats (2)\n20% of its United States House seats (38)\n602 seats in state legislatures\nA repeat of that performance in 1976, combined with GOP retirements\nalready announced, could reduce GOP House membership to just\nover 100 members -- the lowest sumber since 1934. This would\ngive the Democrats complete and unchallengeable control over the\nFederal government for the first time since the New Deal.\nAt the state level, substantial GOP losses in 1976 could mean that\nthe GOP would end the year with control of only eight of the state-\nhouses across the country.\nIt should not be forgotten that in the 1964 debacle it was conservative\nRepublican candidates who suffered most.\nReagan is not going to get the \"Wallace\" vote which is an essential\nelement of his \"New Majority.\"\nReagan has, as everyone knows, been the recipient of the largest\nshare of crossover votes cast in the primaries by former Wallace\nvoters. But most of the former Wallace voters this year either\ndid not vote or voted Democratic, usually for Jimmy Carter. Kevin\nPhillips estimates that the Wallace vote split 4 to 1 for Carter over\nReagan in the primaries (Phillips, 5/28). There is no evidence\nfrom the primaries which suggests that Reagan will get a large enough\nshare of this vote to offset the losses that his candidacy will produce\nin other numerically more important parts of the voting population.\nIn fact, the Democratic party has nominated a candidate that George\nWallace feels comfortable with and has endorsed.\nFORD is LIBRARY GERALD\n[June 25, 1976]\nPRESIDENT FORD - -- THE WINNER IN NOVEMBER\nI.\nGerald Ford has a strong record as President.\nA. Under his leadership, inflation has been cut in half and there\nare 3.6 million new jobs.\nB. President Ford is the first incumbent since Eisenhower who\ncan campaign with the nation at peace.\nC. President Ford has restored trust and confidence in government.\nII.\nPresident Ford runs ahead of Reagan against Carter in every national\npoll.\nFord\nCarter\nUndecided\nReagan\nCarter\nUndecided\nHarris 6/23\n40\n53\n7\n35\n58\n7\nGallup 6/21\n39\n53\n8\n35\n58\n7\nNBC 6/15\n37\n52\n11\n35\n58\n7\nAND IN STATE POLLS\nCalifornia\n40\n41\n19\n38\n46\n16\n5/31 - 6/5\nMinnesota\n46\n43\n11\n39\n46\n15\nIowa\n47\n46\n7\n41\n50\n9\nMissouri\n38\n44\n18\n31\n49\n18\nMichigan\nFORD & LIBRARY 9ERALD\n2\nIII. President Ford has a national appeal.\nA. He is the national choice of Republicans.\nFord\nReagan\nUndecided\nHarris\n60\n30\n10\nNBC\n60\n30\n10\nGallup\n51\n41\n8\nB. He is the national choice of Independents.\nFord\nReagan\nUndecided\nGallup\n52\n33\n13\nC. President Ford is the only candidate in either Party to\nwin primaries in all sections of the country.\nNH 4\nNY 41\nKY 9\nVT 3\nPA 27\nTN 10\nMS 14\nD.C. 3\nOR 6\nFL 17\nWV 6\nRI 4\nIL 26\nMD 10\nNJ 17\nWI 11\nMI 21\nOH 25\nELECTORAL VOTE TOTAL\n254\nReagan has won only one primary outside the Sunbelt. The 144\ntotal electoral vote strength of his primary victories is far\nshort of the 270 needed to win.\nFORD is LIBRARY BERALD\n3\nA REAGAN CANDIDACY WOULD MEAN A REPEAT OF 1964\nA Reagan candidacy in 1976 will result in a loss of landslide proportions.\nNational polls taken in recent months show Governor Reagan from 18 to\n23 points behind Carter. The two most recent polls show Reagan further\nbehind Carter than ever before, indicating that Reagan is losing ground to\nCarter. More importantly, Reagan is nearly as far behind Carter now as\nStevenson was behind Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956 -- and Stevenson lost\nboth elections. Reagan trails Carter by more than Humphrey ever trailed\nNixon in 1968, when Humphrey lost.\nThis evidence shows that Reagan cannot close the gap and would lose to\nCarter. The pattern of the inevitable Reagan defeat indicates that\nRepublicans nationally would fare as badly as they did when Reagan was\nGovernor of California. When Reagan became Governor in 1967,\nRepublicans in California had:\nBefore Reagan Governor\nAfter Reagan Governor\n2 U.S. Senators\nNone\n17 of 38 Congressmen\n15 of 43 Congressmen\n19 of 40 State Senators\n15 of 40 State Senators\n38 of 80 State Assemblymen\n25 of 80 State Assemblymen\n5 of 6 Statewide Offices\n1 of 6 Statewide Offices\nSaid independent pollster Louis Harris:\nThe pattern now being run by Reagan against Carter\nis highly reminiscent of that of Arizona Senator Barry\nGoldwater in the 1964 Presidential election, when he\nlost by a landslide to Lyndon Johnson. This pattern\nthus indicates that in 1976 the electorate is highly\nunlikely to vote for an all-out conservative for President.\n(Harris, 5/6/76)\nThis estimate was confirmed by widely respected conservative political\nanalyst Kevin Phillips. In the May 28 edition of Phillips' newsletter,\nAmerican Political Report, Phillips predicted that Reagan would carry\nonly a handful of smaller states with very few electoral votes.\nThere are three major reasons why a Reagan loss in 1976 would be a\nloss of landslide proportions:\nFORD is LIBRARY 07V839\n4\n1.\nGovernor Reagan's strength is in the wrong places;\n2. Governor Reagan is far too conservative to attract the\nlarge numbers of middle-of-the-road voters any Republican\nmust get in order to win;\n3. The hidden \"Wallace\" or \"new conservative\" voters which\nare supposed to bring Reagan victory are not going to vote\nfor Reagan.\nGovernor Reagan's strengths will do him little good and his weaknesses\nmean a certain Democratic victory in November.\nGovernor Reagan claims enough strength in the South and West and in\ntraditionally Republican areas to bring him victory in November. There's\njust one problem with Reagan's claims -- they're not true. Look at the\nfacts:\nThe West -- A recent Field poll in California, the center of Reagan's\nWestern \"strength, \" showed Reagan losing to Carter by a wide margin.\nFord\nCarter\nReagan\nCarter\n40\n41\n38\n46\nA Gallup poll released on June 27 showed that Ford runs better than\nReagan against Carter throughout the entire West:\nFord\nCarter\nReagan\nCarter\n44\n46\n42\n47\nReagan has no advantage in the South. Carter has a 30 point lead over\nboth candidates as measured by Gallup, Harris, CBS and NBC.\nSo Governor Reagan is strong only where Carter is stronger -- the\ndifference between Ford and Reagan is that Ford is strong in areas\nwhere Carter is weakest -- and these are areas where political\nanalysts are agreed that the polls and the primaries both show that\nReagan has no chance of winning.\nReagan is too conservative to win the votes of essential moderates.\nAs the attached chart shows, Governor Reagan is placed by the voters\nat the extreme right.\nFORD is LIBRARY BERALD\n5\nHHH\nJFK\nAS (Stevenson) FORD\nGOLDWATER\nGM (McGovern)\nCARTER\nIKE\nWALLACE\nLBJ\nRN\nREAGAN\n15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15\nLIBERAL\nCONSERVATIVE\nLIBRARY GERALD ? FORD\n6\nPast Presidential elections have repeatedly shown that a candidate\nas extreme as Governor Reagan (or someone equally far off-center\nto the left) will go down in defeat by a wide margin (see attached\ntable). The reason for this is that the middle-of-the-road voter is\nthe center of gravity in American politics. Any candidate who\ndoesn't get a large share of moderate votes loses badly. Reagan's\nposition on the ideological spectrum means that he won't get those\nvotes, and his support in the primary states shows that he won't\nget those votes.\nAnother 1964 would cost the GOP dearly. In 1964, the GOP lost:\n6% of its United States Senate seats (2)\n20% of its United States House seats (38)\n602 seats in state legislatures\nA repeat of that performance in 1976, combined with GOP retirements\nalready announced, could reduce GOP House membership to just\nover 100 members -- the lowest sumber since 1934. This would\ngive the Democrats complete and unchallengeable control over the\nFederal government for the first time since the New Deal.\nAt the state level, substantial GOP losses in 1976 could mean that\nthe GOP would end the year with control of only eight of the state-\nhouses across the country.\nIt should not be forgotten that in the 1964 debacle it was conservative\nRepublican candidates who suffered most.\nReagan is not going to get the \"Wallace\" vote which is an essential\nelement of his \"New Majority.\"\nReagan has, as everyone knows, been the recipient of the largest\nshare of crossover votes cast in the primaries by former Wallace\nvoters. But most of the former Wallace voters this year either\ndid not vote or voted Democratic, usually for Jimmy Carter. Kevin\nPhillips estimates that the Wallace vote split 4 to 1 for Carter, over\nReagan in the primaries (Phillips, 5/28). There is no evidence\nfrom the primaries which suggests that Reagan will get a large enough\nshare of this vote to offset the losses that his candidacy will produce\nin other numerically more important parts of the voting population.\nIn fact, the Democratic party has nominated a candidate that George\nWallace feels comfortable with and has endorsed.\nFORD\nis\nGERALD\nLIBRARY"
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