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The original documents are located in Box D29, folder "5th Annual Mass Retailing
Institute Convention, Washington, DC, May 12, 1970" of the Ford Congressional Papers:
Press Secretary and Speech File at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library.
Copyright Notice
The copyright law of the United States (Title 17, United States Code) governs the making of
photocopies or other reproductions of copyrighted material. The Council donated to the United
States of America his copyrights in all of his unpublished writings in National Archives collections.
Works prepared by U.S. Government employees as part of their official duties are in the public
domain. The copyrights to materials written by other individuals or organizations are presumed to
remain with them. If you think any of the information displayed in the PDF is subject to a valid
copyright claim, please contact the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library.
Distribution Full
House Gallery 11:15a.m. 5/12/70
moffice Capy
air mail 12 noon 5/12/70
AN ADDRESS BY REP. GERALD R. FORD, R-MICH.
REPUBLICAN LEADER, U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
BEFORE THE 5TH ANNUAL MASS RETAILING INSTITUTE CONVENTION
AT THE SHERATON-PARK HOTEL, WASHINGTON, D.C.
12 NOON, TUESDAY, MAY 12, 1970
FOR RELEASE IN TUESDAY PM's
As you may know, timing is all-important to a member of Congress just as it
is to those in the retailing business. It's important to a congressman when he
files his nominating petitions, when he begins his campaign, when he files an
important bill -- and when he gives a major speech.
I am most happy to be here with you today because the timing offers me an
opportunity to comment on some most important matters. And I do come before you
in my normal frame of mind -- cautiously optimistic.
The chief reason I am cautiously optimistic today in spite of some recent
explosive developments is that I see some bright prospects ahead -- for retail
business and for the Nation generally.
Despite the tense situation among the Nation's young people, I think the
country is going to come out all right. I believe there will be a general cooling
of emotions because we will achieve our objectives in our sweep of the Cambodian
sanctuaries and then withdraw.
Success in the Cambodian sweep will mean that our Vietnam troop withdrawals
will continue on schedule and may even be accelerated.
And here at home I look for a moderate upswing in the economy without great
risk of reviving inflationary pressures.
Speaking more specifically, I expect a definite uptrend in retail sales in
the months ahead while the economy continues adjusting toward relative price
stability.
This is not wishful thinking on my part. It is based on a number of factors
which are certain to give moderate stimulus to the economy while prices "settle in."
I am speaking primarily of the 15 per cent rise in Social Security benefits
which has already gone into effect, the 6 per cent Federal employe pay raise
which becomes effective in mid-May, and the strong likelihood of an additional
5 per cent increase in Social Security.
Add these factors to Presidential lifting of the cutback on State and local
spending on Federally-assisted construction and the adopting of a less restrictive
(more)
Digitized from Box D29 of The Ford Congressional Papers: Press Secretary and Speech File at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library
-2-
Federal Reserve policy on money supply. The effect on the economy is bound to be
a quickening.
But let me emphasize this. While there has been an easing of the fiscal
and monetary brakes, there has been no abandonment of the fight against inflation.
I firmly believe our policy-makers have set a course which will restore real
economic growth without generating strong inflationary pressures.
The economic pace is now beginning to quicken, and it is reasonable to
expect that business news will make better reading as we move through 1970.
But while we have set the tone for some expansion of the economy, we must
pursue a non-inflationary course long enough to restore confidence in the dollar's
buying power.
There are some who have criticized the Administration's economic policies
because they favor a hard, tough dose of deflation. I don't think this kind of
action would make sense. Let us not forget for one minute that the unemployment
rate for Negroes is nearly double that for white members of the work force.
Price and wage controls don't make much sense, either. Freezing prices
would leave many a businessman with his prices at low levels relative to the
prices of his raw materials.
Massive distortion would occur if we attempted to freeze prices and wages.
And we must remember that once those ceilings are imposed it is no easy task to
eliminate them.
Some Americans are wondering whether we actually are making progress in
establishing the basis for more orderly and non-inflationary growth. They are
concerned about the sustained rise in the price level and wonder whether the
Federal budget is drifing toward deficit.
There is no question that the tax-cutting and over-spending the Congress
has engaged in has had an unfavorable impact on capital markets, interest rates,
mortgage markets and the cost of living generally.
We are also concerned about recent wage settlements. They have clearly
been large enough to produce substantial increases in costs. It is elementary that
a rising cost level tends to mean a rising price level.
This means that businessmen must make tough decisions -- decisions that
offset rising costs and inefficiencies. This is the process that must take place
if we are to establish the basis for greater price-cost stability in the years
ahead.
(more)
-3-
While these concerns are real, there is evidence that much progress has
been made.
Fundamental policies of disinflation were put into effect and adhered to.
There was sustained restraint in 1969 after years of monetary expansion that was
at least double what was required for suitable economic growth.
Currently the Federal budget continues to be consistent with the general
game plan.
There is no reason to expect the budget to deflect the orderly course of
the economy.
Our monetary policy now is modestly less restrictive. This is consistent
with the needs of the economy, for we know the effects of such a change in policy
seldom show up for 6 to 12 months. This is the right time for this policy change
although it may seen premature to some.
What are the prospects for good gains in production and incomes as we move
on through the remaining months of 1970?
Those prospects are bright. Consumers' after-tax incomes will be rising
rapidly in the months ahead. This points toward increases in consumer spending
and retail sales during the rest of this year. And we do not have a general excess
of inventories to work off before the economy can resume more rapid expansion.
So the raw materials are there for a more vigorous and orderly expansion
of the economy, while price-level developments are becoming encouraging.
Commodity prices are showing visible effects of measures taken to cool off
overheating in the economy.
The price index for all commodities has been rising at the rate of
2.9 per cent per year in 1970, compared with a 5.7 per cent rate in the first half
of 1969 and a 5.3 per cent rate in the second half of last year.
The price index for all commodities but food has been rising in 1970 at the
rate of 1.7 per cent per year. This is a sharp drop from the 4.9 per cent annual
rate that prevailed in the first half of 1969.
So the evidence is that we can resume a moderately more rapid rate of
economic expansion without pushing prices back into orbit.
We can make no more important contribution to our economic and social
welfare in the decade of the Seventies than to follow through with this beginning
we have made and establish a firm basis for vigorous growth, a dollar in which we
can have confidence, and abundant job opportunities for all.
(more)
-4-
Now, since this talk is in the nature of a report to you from Capitol Hill,
I would like to turn to a topic of special interest to all businessmen -- crime.
I know that businesses are often the targets of burglars, armed robbers, and other
criminals.
Let me say first of all that I believe the courts have become too lenient,
allowing many criminals to return to the streets to resume crime careers. As a
case in point, an FBI study shows that of 18,000 persons released from custody in
1963, 63 per cent were rearrested within five years.
So we have much work to do in combatting crime, and Congress has its task
all cut out for it.
How is Congress doing with the 13 anti-crime bills sent to the Hill by
President Nixon?
The answer is only fair. We must hope that the House and Senate
committees can speed up their deliberations in the next few months so that a
really creditable anti-crime record can be written by the 91st Congress.
Let me run down the list of what the Congress has done to date or has
failed to do in the fight against crime.
There is some progress on the organized crime control bill. That's the
bill which would create special grand juries to probe organized crime, with the
power to issue reports as well as return indictments. This bill permits
contempt-of-court citations against reluctant witnesses, sets stiffer penalties
for habitual, professional and organized criminals, and allows prosecutors to
compel testimony on condition the information will not be used against the witness
except in perjury or contempt actions. The Administration's illegal gambling bill
has been incorporated into the organized crime control bill.
The Senate passed the bill last Jan. 23, and the House Judiciary Committee
will start hearings on it May 20.
The Senate passed a comprehensive drug control bill last Jan. 28 but that
bill laid on the Speaker's table for more than three months because the House
Democratic Leadership couldn't decide which committee or committees to refer it to.
Last Thursday, Ways and Means Chairman Wilbur Mills and senior Republican
John Byrnes introduced a House drug control bill identical with the Senate-approved
bill but no hearings have been scheduled on it yet.
While the jurisdictional dispute has been going on, the House Interstate
and Foreign Commerce Committee has worked on a bill dealing with so-called soft
(more)
-5-
drugs. That bill will go before the full committee soon after subcommittee
approval.
The Senate passed the Public Defender Act April 30. It is pending in the
House Judiciary Committee.
A House subcommittee held hearings May 7 on the Federal Youth Corrections
Act. It's pending in a Senate subcommittee.
The Administration's Witness Immunity Act was made part of the Crime Control
Act in the Senate and passed Jan. 30. The House Judiciary Committee reported the
witness immunity bill favorably on May 5.
The Criminal Appeals Act is pending in subcommittees in both Houses. That's
the legislation which would allow the Justice Department to appeal directly to
the U.S. Appeals courts all cases thrown out of district courts on technicalities.
The Senate and House have each passed a bill which would increase the
number of Federal judgeships. The Senate bill provided for 13 more new judges than
the House bill, and so the difference will have to be worked out. The end result
should be between 65 and 70 new permanent and temporary judgeships and should help
eliminate some of the large backlog of pending cases.
A bill to increase the penalties of the Sherman Antitrust Act passed the
House Feb. 16. The Senate Judiciary Committee will take it up in executive session
May 19 or 20.
Although the House has passed the Post Office Committee's anti-obscenity
bill aimed at protecting minors, two other Administration anti-obscenity bills are
simply marking time in both the House and the Senate.
The Bail Reform Act also is pending in both Houses. Neither has there been
any action on the Administration bill aimed at those who have been practicing
terrorism by planting bombs in buildings.
As for the five anti-crime bills dealing with the District of Columbia,
those were wrapped into one package and have been passed by both Houses. But the
House and Senate still have to work out the differences in the two omnibus bills.
There is no more disturbing problem before this Nation today than the
ever-rising crime rate. So I urge that Congress face up to its responsibility to
help clear the criminal from our streets.
I am concerned because the drug control bill passed by the Senate has
languished on the Speaker's desk in the House.
Drug addicts account for 50 to 75 per cent of our street crimes. I believe
the Congress should help in the Administration fight against the narcotics traffic
(more)
-6--
by giving us the no-knock provision. The Administration is already making the
greatest possible effort to halt the importation of illegal drugs into this country.
To sum up congressional action on crime to date, the Senate has acted far
more speedily than the House although the Senate has unfortunately weakened some
of the Administration's anti-crime proposals. In the House there has been foot-
dragging, and the good intentions of some have been overcome by the inertia of others.
We need more anti-crime weapons but the Administration has struck some hard
blows at crime with the weapons at hand.
While it is true that the nationwide crime rate rose 11 per cent in 1969,
the fact remains that this represented a sharp drop from the rate of rise we had
been experiencing throughout the Sixties. Last year's 11 per cent increase, for
instance, was a big improvement over 1968, when crime rose by 17 per cent.
So we are making progress. We are making headway in fighting crime and, as
I mentioned at the outset, we are making progress in fighting inflation and in
establishing the basis for orderly economic growth.
I would also like to touch briefly on another area of interest to you --
consumer legislation. The House Committee on Government Operations has three bills
before it -- the Administration and Dwyer bills providing for establishment of con-
sumer affairs offices, and the Rosenthal bill providing for an independent consumer
agency.
Hearings have been completed in subcommittee on these three bills. Efforts
now are under way to work out a compromise. Nobody will be satisfied on all counts.
The main desire is to develop a reasonable and effective means of consumer protection
without undermining private enterprise. Efforts are being made to report out a bill
from committee by early summer so the House will have a chance to vote on it this
year.
I have said I am cautiously optimistic about the future of America. I see
everywhere about me reason to have faith in our country, reason to believe in our
great free society.
I do not despair over temporary setbacks. I believe we can lick inflation
and steer our economy to new heights of sound growth. I believe we can sharply
reduce crime and make our streets safe again.
But if we are to accomplish these objectives we must have faith. We must
believe in what we are doing. We must tell ourselves that we can achieve these
goals -- and we must believe it.
I say
WE CAN. I say
LET'S GET ON WITH THE JOB.
# # #
Full Distribution
o office Copy
AN ADDRESS BY REP. GERALD R. FORD, R-MICH.
REPUBLICAN LEADER, U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
BEFORE THE 5TH ANNUAL MASS RETAILING INSTITUTE CONVENTION
AT THE SHERATON-PARK HOTEL, WASHINGTON, D.C.
12 NOON, TUESDAY, MAY 12, 1970
FOR RELEASE IN TUESDAY PM's
As you may know, timing is all-important to a member of Congress just as it
is to those in the retailing business. It's important to a congressman when he
files his nominating petitions, when he begins his campaign, when he files an
important bill -- and when he gives a major speech.
I am most happy to be here with you today because the timing offers me an
opportunity to comment on some most important matters. And I do come before you
in my normal frame of mind -- cautiously optimistic.
The chief reason I am cautiously optimistic today in spite of some recent
explosive developments is that I see some bright prospects ahead -- for retail
business and for the Nation generally.
Despite the tense situation among the Nation's young people, I think the
country is going to come out all right. I believe there will be a general cooling
of emotions because we will achieve our objectives in our sweep of the Cambodian
sanctuaries and then withdraw.
Success in the Cambodian sweep will mean that our Vietnam troop withdrawals
will continue on schedule and may even be accelerated.
And here at home I look for a moderate upswing in the economy without great
risk of reviving inflationary pressures.
Speaking more specifically, I expect a definite uptrend in retail sales in
the months ahead while the economy continues adjusting toward relative price
stability.
This is not wishful thinking on my part. It is based on a number of factors
which are certain to give moderate stimulus to the economy while prices "settle in."
I am speaking primarily of the 15 per cent rise in Social Security benefits
which has already gone into effect, the 6 per cent Federal employe pay raise
which becomes effective in mid-May, and the strong likelihood of an additional
5 per cent increase in Social Security.
Add these factors to Presidential lifting of the cutback on State and local
spending on Federally-assisted construction and the adopting of a less restrictive
(more)
-2-
Federal Reserve policy on money supply. The effect on the economy is bound to be
a quickening.
But let me emphasize this. While there has been an easing of the fiscal
and monetary brakes, there has been no abandonment of the fight against inflation.
I firmly believe our policy-makers have set a course which will restore real
economic growth without generating strong inflationary pressures.
The economic pace is now beginning to quicken, and it is reasonable to
expect that business news will make better reading as we move through 1970.
But while we have set the tone for some expansion of the economy, we must
pursue a non-inflationary course long enough to restore confidence in the dollar's
buying power.
There are some who have criticized the Administration's economic policies
because they favor a hard, tough dose of deflation. I don't think this kind of
action would make sense. Let us not forget for one minute that the unemployment
rate for Negroes is nearly double that for white members of the work force.
Price and wage controls don't make much sense, either. Freezing prices
would leave many a businessman with his prices at low levels relative to the
prices of his raw materials.
Massive distortion would occur if we attempted to freeze prices and wages.
And we must remember that once those ceilings are imposed it is no easy task to
eliminate them.
Some Americans are wondering whether we actually are making progress in
establishing the basis for more orderly and non-inflationary growth. They are
concerned about the sustained rise in the price level and wonder whether the
Federal budget is drifing toward deficit.
There is no question that the tax-cutting and over-spending the Congress
has engaged in has had an unfavorable impact on capital markets, interest rates,
mortgage markets and the cost of living generally.
We are also concerned about recent wage settlements. They have clearly
been large enough to produce substantial increases in costs. It is elementary that
a rising cost level tends to mean a rising price level.
This means that businessmen must make tough decisions -- decisions that
offset rising costs and inefficiencies. This is the process that must take place
if we are to establish the basis for greater price-cost stability in the years
ahead.
(more)
-3-
While these concerns are real, there is evidence that much progress has
been made.
Fundamental policies of disinflation were put into effect and adhered to.
There was sustained restraint in 1969 after years of monetary expansion that was
at least double what was required for suitable economic growth.
Currently the Federal budget continues to be consistent with the general
game plan.
There is no reason to expect the budget to deflect the orderly course of
the economy.
Our monetary policy now is modestly less restrictive. This is consistent
with the needs of the economy, for we know the effects of such a change in policy
seldom show up for 6 to 12 months. This is the right time for this policy change
although it may seen premature to some.
What are the prospects for good gains in production and incomes as we move
on through the remaining months of 1970?
Those prospects are bright. Consumers' after-tax incomes will be rising
rapidly in the months ahead. This points toward increases in consumer spending
and retail sales during the rest of this year. And we do not have a general excess
of inventories to work off before the economy can resume more rapid expansion.
So the raw materials are there for a more vigorous and orderly expansion
of the economy, while price-level developments are becoming encouraging.
Commodity prices are showing visible effects of measures taken to cool off
overheating in the economy.
The price index for all commodities has been rising at the rate of
2.9 per cent per year in 1970, compared with a 5.7 per cent rate in the first half
of 1969 and a 5.3 per cent rate in the second half of last year.
The price index for all commodities but food has been rising in 1970 at the
rate of 1.7 per cent per year. This is a sharp drop from the 4.9 per cent annual
rate that prevailed in the first half of 1969.
So the evidence is that we can resume a moderately more rapid rate of
economic expansion without pushing prices back into orbit.
We can make no more important contribution to our economic and social
welfare in the decade of the Seventies than to follow through with this beginning
we have made and establish a firm basis for vigorous growth, a dollar in which we
can have confidence, and abundant job opportunities for all.
(more)
-4-
Now, since this talk is in the nature of a report to you from Capitol Hill,
I would like to turn to a topic of special interest to all businessmen -- crime.
I know that businesses are often the targets of burglars, armed robbers, and other
criminals.
Let me say first of all that I believe the courts have become too lenient,
allowing many criminals to return to the streets to resume crime careers. As a
case in point, an FBI study shows that of 18,000 persons released from custody in
1963, 63 per cent were rearrested within five years.
So we have much work to do in combatting crime, and Congress has its task
all cut out for it.
How is Congress doing with the 13 anti-crime bills sent to the Hill by
President Nixon?
The answer is only fair. We must hope that the House and Senate
committees can speed up their deliberations in the next few months so that a
really creditable anti-crime record can be written by the 91st Congress.
Let me run down the list of what the Congress has done to date or has
failed to do in the fight against crime.
There is some progress on the organized crime control bill. That's the
bill which would create special grand juries to probe organized crime, with the
power to issue reports as well as return indictments. This bill permits
contempt-of-court citations against reluctant witnesses, sets stiffer penalties
for habitual, professional and organized criminals, and allows prosecutors to
compel testimony on condition the information will not be used against the witness
except in perjury or contempt actions. The Administration's illegal gambling bill
has been incorporated into the organized crime control bill.
The Senate passed the bill last Jan. 23, and the House Judiciary Committee
will start hearings on it May 20.
The Senate passed a comprehensive drug control bill last Jan. 28 but that
bill laid on the Speaker's table for more than three months because the House
Democratic Leadership couldn't decide which committee or committees to refer it to.
Last Thursday, Ways and Means Chairman Wilbur Mills and senior Republican
John Byrnes introduced a House drug control bill identical with the Senate-approved
bill but no hearings have been scheduled on it yet.
While the jurisdictional dispute has been going on, the House Interstate
and Foreign Commerce Committee has worked on a bill dealing with so-called soft
(more)
-5-
drugs. That bill will go before the full committee soon after subcommittee
approval.
The Senate passed the Public Defender Act April 30. It is pending in the
House Judiciary Committee.
A House subcommittee held hearings May 7 on the Federal Youth Corrections
Act. It's pending in a Senate subcommittee.
The Administration's Witness Immunity Act was made part of the Crime Control
Act in the Senate and passed Jan. 30. The House Judiciary Committee reported the
witness immunity bill favorably on May 5.
The Criminal Appeals Act is pending in subcommittees in both Houses. That's
the legislation which would allow the Justice Department to appeal directly to
the U.S. Appeals courts all cases thrown out of district courts on technicalities.
The Senate and House have each passed a bill which would increase the
number of Federal judgeships. The Senate bill provided for 13 more new judges than
the House bill, and SO the difference will have to be worked out. The end result
should be between 65 and 70 new permanent and temporary judgeships and should help
eliminate some of the large backlog of pending cases.
A bill to increase the penalties of the Sherman Antitrust Act passed the
House Feb. 16. The Senate Judiciary Committee will take it up in executive session
May 19 or 20.
Although the House has passed the Post Office Committee's anti-obscenity
bill aimed at protecting minors, two other Administration anti-obscenity bills are
simply marking time in both the House and the Senate.
The Bail Reform Act also is pending in both Houses. Neither has there been
any action on the Administration bill aimed at those who have been practicing
terrorism by planting bombs in buildings.
As for the five anti-crime bills dealing with the District of Columbia,
those were wrapped into one package and have been passed by both Houses. But the
House and Senate still have to work out the differences in the two omnibus bills.
There is no more disturbing problem before this Nation today than the
ever-rising crime rate. So I urge that Congress face up to its responsibility to
help clear the criminal from our streets.
I am concerned because the drug control bill passed by the Senate has
languished on the Speaker's desk in the House.
Drug addicts account for 50 to 75 per cent of our street crimes. I believe
the Congress should help in the Administration fight against the narcotics traffic
(more)
-6-
by giving us the no-knock provision. The Administration is already making the
greatest possible effort to halt the importation of illegal drugs into this country.
To sum up congressional action on crime to date, the Senate has acted far
more speedily than the House although the Senate has unfortunately weakened some
of the Administration's anti-crime proposals. In the House there has been foot-
dragging, and the good intentions of some have been overcome by the inertia of others
We need more anti-crime weapons but the Administration has struck some hard
blows at crime with the weapons at hand.
While it is true that the nationwide crime rate rose 11 per cent in 1969,
the fact remains that this represented a sharp drop from the rate of rise we had
been experiencing throughout the Sixties. Last year's 11 per cent increase, for
instance, was a big improvement over 1968, when crime rose by 17 per cent.
So we are making progress. We are making headway in fighting crime and, as
I mentioned at the outset, we are making progress in fighting inflation and in
establishing the basis for orderly economic growth.
I would also like to touch briefly on another area of interest to you --
consumer legislation. The House Committee on Government Operations has three bills
before it -- the Administration and Dwyer bills providing for establishment of con-
sumer affairs offices, and the Rosenthal bill providing for an independent consumer
agency.
Hearings have been completed in subcommittee on these three bills. Efforts
now are under way to work out a compromise. Nobody will be satisfied on all counts.
The main desire is to develop a reasonable and effective means of consumer protection
without undermining private enterprise. Efforts are being made to report out a bill
from committee by early summer so the House will have a chance to vote on it this
year.
I have said I am cautiously optimistic about the future of America. I see
everywhere about me reason to have faith in our country, reason to believe in our
great free society.
I do not despair over temporary setbacks. I believe we can lick inflation
and steer our economy to new heights of sound growth. I believe we can sharply
reduce crime and make our streets safe again.
But if we are to accomplish these objectives we must have faith. We must
believe in what we are doing. We must tell ourselves that we can achieve these
goals -- and we must believe it.
I say
WE CAN. I say
LET'S GET ON WITH THE JOB.
# # #
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"ocrText": "The original documents are located in Box D29, folder \"5th Annual Mass Retailing\nInstitute Convention, Washington, DC, May 12, 1970\" of the Ford Congressional Papers:\nPress Secretary and Speech File at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library.\nCopyright Notice\nThe copyright law of the United States (Title 17, United States Code) governs the making of\nphotocopies or other reproductions of copyrighted material. The Council donated to the United\nStates of America his copyrights in all of his unpublished writings in National Archives collections.\nWorks prepared by U.S. Government employees as part of their official duties are in the public\ndomain. The copyrights to materials written by other individuals or organizations are presumed to\nremain with them. If you think any of the information displayed in the PDF is subject to a valid\ncopyright claim, please contact the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library.\nDistribution Full\nHouse Gallery 11:15a.m. 5/12/70\nmoffice Capy\nair mail 12 noon 5/12/70\nAN ADDRESS BY REP. GERALD R. FORD, R-MICH.\nREPUBLICAN LEADER, U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES\nBEFORE THE 5TH ANNUAL MASS RETAILING INSTITUTE CONVENTION\nAT THE SHERATON-PARK HOTEL, WASHINGTON, D.C.\n12 NOON, TUESDAY, MAY 12, 1970\nFOR RELEASE IN TUESDAY PM's\nAs you may know, timing is all-important to a member of Congress just as it\nis to those in the retailing business. It's important to a congressman when he\nfiles his nominating petitions, when he begins his campaign, when he files an\nimportant bill -- and when he gives a major speech.\nI am most happy to be here with you today because the timing offers me an\nopportunity to comment on some most important matters. And I do come before you\nin my normal frame of mind -- cautiously optimistic.\nThe chief reason I am cautiously optimistic today in spite of some recent\nexplosive developments is that I see some bright prospects ahead -- for retail\nbusiness and for the Nation generally.\nDespite the tense situation among the Nation's young people, I think the\ncountry is going to come out all right. I believe there will be a general cooling\nof emotions because we will achieve our objectives in our sweep of the Cambodian\nsanctuaries and then withdraw.\nSuccess in the Cambodian sweep will mean that our Vietnam troop withdrawals\nwill continue on schedule and may even be accelerated.\nAnd here at home I look for a moderate upswing in the economy without great\nrisk of reviving inflationary pressures.\nSpeaking more specifically, I expect a definite uptrend in retail sales in\nthe months ahead while the economy continues adjusting toward relative price\nstability.\nThis is not wishful thinking on my part. It is based on a number of factors\nwhich are certain to give moderate stimulus to the economy while prices \"settle in.\"\nI am speaking primarily of the 15 per cent rise in Social Security benefits\nwhich has already gone into effect, the 6 per cent Federal employe pay raise\nwhich becomes effective in mid-May, and the strong likelihood of an additional\n5 per cent increase in Social Security.\nAdd these factors to Presidential lifting of the cutback on State and local\nspending on Federally-assisted construction and the adopting of a less restrictive\n(more)\nDigitized from Box D29 of The Ford Congressional Papers: Press Secretary and Speech File at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library\n-2-\nFederal Reserve policy on money supply. The effect on the economy is bound to be\na quickening.\nBut let me emphasize this. While there has been an easing of the fiscal\nand monetary brakes, there has been no abandonment of the fight against inflation.\nI firmly believe our policy-makers have set a course which will restore real\neconomic growth without generating strong inflationary pressures.\nThe economic pace is now beginning to quicken, and it is reasonable to\nexpect that business news will make better reading as we move through 1970.\nBut while we have set the tone for some expansion of the economy, we must\npursue a non-inflationary course long enough to restore confidence in the dollar's\nbuying power.\nThere are some who have criticized the Administration's economic policies\nbecause they favor a hard, tough dose of deflation. I don't think this kind of\naction would make sense. Let us not forget for one minute that the unemployment\nrate for Negroes is nearly double that for white members of the work force.\nPrice and wage controls don't make much sense, either. Freezing prices\nwould leave many a businessman with his prices at low levels relative to the\nprices of his raw materials.\nMassive distortion would occur if we attempted to freeze prices and wages.\nAnd we must remember that once those ceilings are imposed it is no easy task to\neliminate them.\nSome Americans are wondering whether we actually are making progress in\nestablishing the basis for more orderly and non-inflationary growth. They are\nconcerned about the sustained rise in the price level and wonder whether the\nFederal budget is drifing toward deficit.\nThere is no question that the tax-cutting and over-spending the Congress\nhas engaged in has had an unfavorable impact on capital markets, interest rates,\nmortgage markets and the cost of living generally.\nWe are also concerned about recent wage settlements. They have clearly\nbeen large enough to produce substantial increases in costs. It is elementary that\na rising cost level tends to mean a rising price level.\nThis means that businessmen must make tough decisions -- decisions that\noffset rising costs and inefficiencies. This is the process that must take place\nif we are to establish the basis for greater price-cost stability in the years\nahead.\n(more)\n-3-\nWhile these concerns are real, there is evidence that much progress has\nbeen made.\nFundamental policies of disinflation were put into effect and adhered to.\nThere was sustained restraint in 1969 after years of monetary expansion that was\nat least double what was required for suitable economic growth.\nCurrently the Federal budget continues to be consistent with the general\ngame plan.\nThere is no reason to expect the budget to deflect the orderly course of\nthe economy.\nOur monetary policy now is modestly less restrictive. This is consistent\nwith the needs of the economy, for we know the effects of such a change in policy\nseldom show up for 6 to 12 months. This is the right time for this policy change\nalthough it may seen premature to some.\nWhat are the prospects for good gains in production and incomes as we move\non through the remaining months of 1970?\nThose prospects are bright. Consumers' after-tax incomes will be rising\nrapidly in the months ahead. This points toward increases in consumer spending\nand retail sales during the rest of this year. And we do not have a general excess\nof inventories to work off before the economy can resume more rapid expansion.\nSo the raw materials are there for a more vigorous and orderly expansion\nof the economy, while price-level developments are becoming encouraging.\nCommodity prices are showing visible effects of measures taken to cool off\noverheating in the economy.\nThe price index for all commodities has been rising at the rate of\n2.9 per cent per year in 1970, compared with a 5.7 per cent rate in the first half\nof 1969 and a 5.3 per cent rate in the second half of last year.\nThe price index for all commodities but food has been rising in 1970 at the\nrate of 1.7 per cent per year. This is a sharp drop from the 4.9 per cent annual\nrate that prevailed in the first half of 1969.\nSo the evidence is that we can resume a moderately more rapid rate of\neconomic expansion without pushing prices back into orbit.\nWe can make no more important contribution to our economic and social\nwelfare in the decade of the Seventies than to follow through with this beginning\nwe have made and establish a firm basis for vigorous growth, a dollar in which we\ncan have confidence, and abundant job opportunities for all.\n(more)\n-4-\nNow, since this talk is in the nature of a report to you from Capitol Hill,\nI would like to turn to a topic of special interest to all businessmen -- crime.\nI know that businesses are often the targets of burglars, armed robbers, and other\ncriminals.\nLet me say first of all that I believe the courts have become too lenient,\nallowing many criminals to return to the streets to resume crime careers. As a\ncase in point, an FBI study shows that of 18,000 persons released from custody in\n1963, 63 per cent were rearrested within five years.\nSo we have much work to do in combatting crime, and Congress has its task\nall cut out for it.\nHow is Congress doing with the 13 anti-crime bills sent to the Hill by\nPresident Nixon?\nThe answer is only fair. We must hope that the House and Senate\ncommittees can speed up their deliberations in the next few months so that a\nreally creditable anti-crime record can be written by the 91st Congress.\nLet me run down the list of what the Congress has done to date or has\nfailed to do in the fight against crime.\nThere is some progress on the organized crime control bill. That's the\nbill which would create special grand juries to probe organized crime, with the\npower to issue reports as well as return indictments. This bill permits\ncontempt-of-court citations against reluctant witnesses, sets stiffer penalties\nfor habitual, professional and organized criminals, and allows prosecutors to\ncompel testimony on condition the information will not be used against the witness\nexcept in perjury or contempt actions. The Administration's illegal gambling bill\nhas been incorporated into the organized crime control bill.\nThe Senate passed the bill last Jan. 23, and the House Judiciary Committee\nwill start hearings on it May 20.\nThe Senate passed a comprehensive drug control bill last Jan. 28 but that\nbill laid on the Speaker's table for more than three months because the House\nDemocratic Leadership couldn't decide which committee or committees to refer it to.\nLast Thursday, Ways and Means Chairman Wilbur Mills and senior Republican\nJohn Byrnes introduced a House drug control bill identical with the Senate-approved\nbill but no hearings have been scheduled on it yet.\nWhile the jurisdictional dispute has been going on, the House Interstate\nand Foreign Commerce Committee has worked on a bill dealing with so-called soft\n(more)\n-5-\ndrugs. That bill will go before the full committee soon after subcommittee\napproval.\nThe Senate passed the Public Defender Act April 30. It is pending in the\nHouse Judiciary Committee.\nA House subcommittee held hearings May 7 on the Federal Youth Corrections\nAct. It's pending in a Senate subcommittee.\nThe Administration's Witness Immunity Act was made part of the Crime Control\nAct in the Senate and passed Jan. 30. The House Judiciary Committee reported the\nwitness immunity bill favorably on May 5.\nThe Criminal Appeals Act is pending in subcommittees in both Houses. That's\nthe legislation which would allow the Justice Department to appeal directly to\nthe U.S. Appeals courts all cases thrown out of district courts on technicalities.\nThe Senate and House have each passed a bill which would increase the\nnumber of Federal judgeships. The Senate bill provided for 13 more new judges than\nthe House bill, and so the difference will have to be worked out. The end result\nshould be between 65 and 70 new permanent and temporary judgeships and should help\neliminate some of the large backlog of pending cases.\nA bill to increase the penalties of the Sherman Antitrust Act passed the\nHouse Feb. 16. The Senate Judiciary Committee will take it up in executive session\nMay 19 or 20.\nAlthough the House has passed the Post Office Committee's anti-obscenity\nbill aimed at protecting minors, two other Administration anti-obscenity bills are\nsimply marking time in both the House and the Senate.\nThe Bail Reform Act also is pending in both Houses. Neither has there been\nany action on the Administration bill aimed at those who have been practicing\nterrorism by planting bombs in buildings.\nAs for the five anti-crime bills dealing with the District of Columbia,\nthose were wrapped into one package and have been passed by both Houses. But the\nHouse and Senate still have to work out the differences in the two omnibus bills.\nThere is no more disturbing problem before this Nation today than the\never-rising crime rate. So I urge that Congress face up to its responsibility to\nhelp clear the criminal from our streets.\nI am concerned because the drug control bill passed by the Senate has\nlanguished on the Speaker's desk in the House.\nDrug addicts account for 50 to 75 per cent of our street crimes. I believe\nthe Congress should help in the Administration fight against the narcotics traffic\n(more)\n-6--\nby giving us the no-knock provision. The Administration is already making the\ngreatest possible effort to halt the importation of illegal drugs into this country.\nTo sum up congressional action on crime to date, the Senate has acted far\nmore speedily than the House although the Senate has unfortunately weakened some\nof the Administration's anti-crime proposals. In the House there has been foot-\ndragging, and the good intentions of some have been overcome by the inertia of others.\nWe need more anti-crime weapons but the Administration has struck some hard\nblows at crime with the weapons at hand.\nWhile it is true that the nationwide crime rate rose 11 per cent in 1969,\nthe fact remains that this represented a sharp drop from the rate of rise we had\nbeen experiencing throughout the Sixties. Last year's 11 per cent increase, for\ninstance, was a big improvement over 1968, when crime rose by 17 per cent.\nSo we are making progress. We are making headway in fighting crime and, as\nI mentioned at the outset, we are making progress in fighting inflation and in\nestablishing the basis for orderly economic growth.\nI would also like to touch briefly on another area of interest to you --\nconsumer legislation. The House Committee on Government Operations has three bills\nbefore it -- the Administration and Dwyer bills providing for establishment of con-\nsumer affairs offices, and the Rosenthal bill providing for an independent consumer\nagency.\nHearings have been completed in subcommittee on these three bills. Efforts\nnow are under way to work out a compromise. Nobody will be satisfied on all counts.\nThe main desire is to develop a reasonable and effective means of consumer protection\nwithout undermining private enterprise. Efforts are being made to report out a bill\nfrom committee by early summer so the House will have a chance to vote on it this\nyear.\nI have said I am cautiously optimistic about the future of America. I see\neverywhere about me reason to have faith in our country, reason to believe in our\ngreat free society.\nI do not despair over temporary setbacks. I believe we can lick inflation\nand steer our economy to new heights of sound growth. I believe we can sharply\nreduce crime and make our streets safe again.\nBut if we are to accomplish these objectives we must have faith. We must\nbelieve in what we are doing. We must tell ourselves that we can achieve these\ngoals -- and we must believe it.\nI say\nWE CAN. I say\nLET'S GET ON WITH THE JOB.\n# # #\nFull Distribution\no office Copy\nAN ADDRESS BY REP. GERALD R. FORD, R-MICH.\nREPUBLICAN LEADER, U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES\nBEFORE THE 5TH ANNUAL MASS RETAILING INSTITUTE CONVENTION\nAT THE SHERATON-PARK HOTEL, WASHINGTON, D.C.\n12 NOON, TUESDAY, MAY 12, 1970\nFOR RELEASE IN TUESDAY PM's\nAs you may know, timing is all-important to a member of Congress just as it\nis to those in the retailing business. It's important to a congressman when he\nfiles his nominating petitions, when he begins his campaign, when he files an\nimportant bill -- and when he gives a major speech.\nI am most happy to be here with you today because the timing offers me an\nopportunity to comment on some most important matters. And I do come before you\nin my normal frame of mind -- cautiously optimistic.\nThe chief reason I am cautiously optimistic today in spite of some recent\nexplosive developments is that I see some bright prospects ahead -- for retail\nbusiness and for the Nation generally.\nDespite the tense situation among the Nation's young people, I think the\ncountry is going to come out all right. I believe there will be a general cooling\nof emotions because we will achieve our objectives in our sweep of the Cambodian\nsanctuaries and then withdraw.\nSuccess in the Cambodian sweep will mean that our Vietnam troop withdrawals\nwill continue on schedule and may even be accelerated.\nAnd here at home I look for a moderate upswing in the economy without great\nrisk of reviving inflationary pressures.\nSpeaking more specifically, I expect a definite uptrend in retail sales in\nthe months ahead while the economy continues adjusting toward relative price\nstability.\nThis is not wishful thinking on my part. It is based on a number of factors\nwhich are certain to give moderate stimulus to the economy while prices \"settle in.\"\nI am speaking primarily of the 15 per cent rise in Social Security benefits\nwhich has already gone into effect, the 6 per cent Federal employe pay raise\nwhich becomes effective in mid-May, and the strong likelihood of an additional\n5 per cent increase in Social Security.\nAdd these factors to Presidential lifting of the cutback on State and local\nspending on Federally-assisted construction and the adopting of a less restrictive\n(more)\n-2-\nFederal Reserve policy on money supply. The effect on the economy is bound to be\na quickening.\nBut let me emphasize this. While there has been an easing of the fiscal\nand monetary brakes, there has been no abandonment of the fight against inflation.\nI firmly believe our policy-makers have set a course which will restore real\neconomic growth without generating strong inflationary pressures.\nThe economic pace is now beginning to quicken, and it is reasonable to\nexpect that business news will make better reading as we move through 1970.\nBut while we have set the tone for some expansion of the economy, we must\npursue a non-inflationary course long enough to restore confidence in the dollar's\nbuying power.\nThere are some who have criticized the Administration's economic policies\nbecause they favor a hard, tough dose of deflation. I don't think this kind of\naction would make sense. Let us not forget for one minute that the unemployment\nrate for Negroes is nearly double that for white members of the work force.\nPrice and wage controls don't make much sense, either. Freezing prices\nwould leave many a businessman with his prices at low levels relative to the\nprices of his raw materials.\nMassive distortion would occur if we attempted to freeze prices and wages.\nAnd we must remember that once those ceilings are imposed it is no easy task to\neliminate them.\nSome Americans are wondering whether we actually are making progress in\nestablishing the basis for more orderly and non-inflationary growth. They are\nconcerned about the sustained rise in the price level and wonder whether the\nFederal budget is drifing toward deficit.\nThere is no question that the tax-cutting and over-spending the Congress\nhas engaged in has had an unfavorable impact on capital markets, interest rates,\nmortgage markets and the cost of living generally.\nWe are also concerned about recent wage settlements. They have clearly\nbeen large enough to produce substantial increases in costs. It is elementary that\na rising cost level tends to mean a rising price level.\nThis means that businessmen must make tough decisions -- decisions that\noffset rising costs and inefficiencies. This is the process that must take place\nif we are to establish the basis for greater price-cost stability in the years\nahead.\n(more)\n-3-\nWhile these concerns are real, there is evidence that much progress has\nbeen made.\nFundamental policies of disinflation were put into effect and adhered to.\nThere was sustained restraint in 1969 after years of monetary expansion that was\nat least double what was required for suitable economic growth.\nCurrently the Federal budget continues to be consistent with the general\ngame plan.\nThere is no reason to expect the budget to deflect the orderly course of\nthe economy.\nOur monetary policy now is modestly less restrictive. This is consistent\nwith the needs of the economy, for we know the effects of such a change in policy\nseldom show up for 6 to 12 months. This is the right time for this policy change\nalthough it may seen premature to some.\nWhat are the prospects for good gains in production and incomes as we move\non through the remaining months of 1970?\nThose prospects are bright. Consumers' after-tax incomes will be rising\nrapidly in the months ahead. This points toward increases in consumer spending\nand retail sales during the rest of this year. And we do not have a general excess\nof inventories to work off before the economy can resume more rapid expansion.\nSo the raw materials are there for a more vigorous and orderly expansion\nof the economy, while price-level developments are becoming encouraging.\nCommodity prices are showing visible effects of measures taken to cool off\noverheating in the economy.\nThe price index for all commodities has been rising at the rate of\n2.9 per cent per year in 1970, compared with a 5.7 per cent rate in the first half\nof 1969 and a 5.3 per cent rate in the second half of last year.\nThe price index for all commodities but food has been rising in 1970 at the\nrate of 1.7 per cent per year. This is a sharp drop from the 4.9 per cent annual\nrate that prevailed in the first half of 1969.\nSo the evidence is that we can resume a moderately more rapid rate of\neconomic expansion without pushing prices back into orbit.\nWe can make no more important contribution to our economic and social\nwelfare in the decade of the Seventies than to follow through with this beginning\nwe have made and establish a firm basis for vigorous growth, a dollar in which we\ncan have confidence, and abundant job opportunities for all.\n(more)\n-4-\nNow, since this talk is in the nature of a report to you from Capitol Hill,\nI would like to turn to a topic of special interest to all businessmen -- crime.\nI know that businesses are often the targets of burglars, armed robbers, and other\ncriminals.\nLet me say first of all that I believe the courts have become too lenient,\nallowing many criminals to return to the streets to resume crime careers. As a\ncase in point, an FBI study shows that of 18,000 persons released from custody in\n1963, 63 per cent were rearrested within five years.\nSo we have much work to do in combatting crime, and Congress has its task\nall cut out for it.\nHow is Congress doing with the 13 anti-crime bills sent to the Hill by\nPresident Nixon?\nThe answer is only fair. We must hope that the House and Senate\ncommittees can speed up their deliberations in the next few months so that a\nreally creditable anti-crime record can be written by the 91st Congress.\nLet me run down the list of what the Congress has done to date or has\nfailed to do in the fight against crime.\nThere is some progress on the organized crime control bill. That's the\nbill which would create special grand juries to probe organized crime, with the\npower to issue reports as well as return indictments. This bill permits\ncontempt-of-court citations against reluctant witnesses, sets stiffer penalties\nfor habitual, professional and organized criminals, and allows prosecutors to\ncompel testimony on condition the information will not be used against the witness\nexcept in perjury or contempt actions. The Administration's illegal gambling bill\nhas been incorporated into the organized crime control bill.\nThe Senate passed the bill last Jan. 23, and the House Judiciary Committee\nwill start hearings on it May 20.\nThe Senate passed a comprehensive drug control bill last Jan. 28 but that\nbill laid on the Speaker's table for more than three months because the House\nDemocratic Leadership couldn't decide which committee or committees to refer it to.\nLast Thursday, Ways and Means Chairman Wilbur Mills and senior Republican\nJohn Byrnes introduced a House drug control bill identical with the Senate-approved\nbill but no hearings have been scheduled on it yet.\nWhile the jurisdictional dispute has been going on, the House Interstate\nand Foreign Commerce Committee has worked on a bill dealing with so-called soft\n(more)\n-5-\ndrugs. That bill will go before the full committee soon after subcommittee\napproval.\nThe Senate passed the Public Defender Act April 30. It is pending in the\nHouse Judiciary Committee.\nA House subcommittee held hearings May 7 on the Federal Youth Corrections\nAct. It's pending in a Senate subcommittee.\nThe Administration's Witness Immunity Act was made part of the Crime Control\nAct in the Senate and passed Jan. 30. The House Judiciary Committee reported the\nwitness immunity bill favorably on May 5.\nThe Criminal Appeals Act is pending in subcommittees in both Houses. That's\nthe legislation which would allow the Justice Department to appeal directly to\nthe U.S. Appeals courts all cases thrown out of district courts on technicalities.\nThe Senate and House have each passed a bill which would increase the\nnumber of Federal judgeships. The Senate bill provided for 13 more new judges than\nthe House bill, and SO the difference will have to be worked out. The end result\nshould be between 65 and 70 new permanent and temporary judgeships and should help\neliminate some of the large backlog of pending cases.\nA bill to increase the penalties of the Sherman Antitrust Act passed the\nHouse Feb. 16. The Senate Judiciary Committee will take it up in executive session\nMay 19 or 20.\nAlthough the House has passed the Post Office Committee's anti-obscenity\nbill aimed at protecting minors, two other Administration anti-obscenity bills are\nsimply marking time in both the House and the Senate.\nThe Bail Reform Act also is pending in both Houses. Neither has there been\nany action on the Administration bill aimed at those who have been practicing\nterrorism by planting bombs in buildings.\nAs for the five anti-crime bills dealing with the District of Columbia,\nthose were wrapped into one package and have been passed by both Houses. But the\nHouse and Senate still have to work out the differences in the two omnibus bills.\nThere is no more disturbing problem before this Nation today than the\never-rising crime rate. So I urge that Congress face up to its responsibility to\nhelp clear the criminal from our streets.\nI am concerned because the drug control bill passed by the Senate has\nlanguished on the Speaker's desk in the House.\nDrug addicts account for 50 to 75 per cent of our street crimes. I believe\nthe Congress should help in the Administration fight against the narcotics traffic\n(more)\n-6-\nby giving us the no-knock provision. The Administration is already making the\ngreatest possible effort to halt the importation of illegal drugs into this country.\nTo sum up congressional action on crime to date, the Senate has acted far\nmore speedily than the House although the Senate has unfortunately weakened some\nof the Administration's anti-crime proposals. In the House there has been foot-\ndragging, and the good intentions of some have been overcome by the inertia of others\nWe need more anti-crime weapons but the Administration has struck some hard\nblows at crime with the weapons at hand.\nWhile it is true that the nationwide crime rate rose 11 per cent in 1969,\nthe fact remains that this represented a sharp drop from the rate of rise we had\nbeen experiencing throughout the Sixties. Last year's 11 per cent increase, for\ninstance, was a big improvement over 1968, when crime rose by 17 per cent.\nSo we are making progress. We are making headway in fighting crime and, as\nI mentioned at the outset, we are making progress in fighting inflation and in\nestablishing the basis for orderly economic growth.\nI would also like to touch briefly on another area of interest to you --\nconsumer legislation. The House Committee on Government Operations has three bills\nbefore it -- the Administration and Dwyer bills providing for establishment of con-\nsumer affairs offices, and the Rosenthal bill providing for an independent consumer\nagency.\nHearings have been completed in subcommittee on these three bills. Efforts\nnow are under way to work out a compromise. Nobody will be satisfied on all counts.\nThe main desire is to develop a reasonable and effective means of consumer protection\nwithout undermining private enterprise. Efforts are being made to report out a bill\nfrom committee by early summer so the House will have a chance to vote on it this\nyear.\nI have said I am cautiously optimistic about the future of America. I see\neverywhere about me reason to have faith in our country, reason to believe in our\ngreat free society.\nI do not despair over temporary setbacks. I believe we can lick inflation\nand steer our economy to new heights of sound growth. I believe we can sharply\nreduce crime and make our streets safe again.\nBut if we are to accomplish these objectives we must have faith. We must\nbelieve in what we are doing. We must tell ourselves that we can achieve these\ngoals -- and we must believe it.\nI say\nWE CAN. I say\nLET'S GET ON WITH THE JOB.\n# # #"
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